Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:02 - ID#401237)
Bingo: Oil, US $s, Gold, and the Euro $s.



PS: Caspian Sea pipeline to Europe, the deal is done.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:03 - ID#255151)
RJ 23:02

My 2 lorins worth-- Many Americans are becoming more aware that this Millinnium Bug is a big problem, which, if not solved, will wreak financial havoc. Real or not, if fear of Y2K turns into a self fulfilling prophecy, then Gold will go to all time highs and beyond. EJ said in his "farewell" post that if Gold does go into the 1000's, we will not like all the other things that go along with it. That is a fact, and your 23:02 post reinforces it well.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:04 - ID#335190)
Selby @ Selby (The basis for a conspiracy--and no gold) [from another view]
Nazi Altitude and Cold Endurance Experiments

Dachau was filled with Communists and Social Democrats, Jews, Jehovah's Witnesses, Gypsies, clergymen, homosexuals, and people critical of the Nazi government.

Upon entering Dachau, prisoners lost all legal status, their hair was shaved off, all their possessions confiscated, they were poorly fed, and they were used as slaves for both the corporations and the government.
The SS guards were brutal and sadistic. The idea to test subjects at Dachau was really the brain child of Erich Hippke, chief surgeon of the Luftwaffe.

The worst experiment was performed on two Russian officer POWs. They were placed in the basin naked. Hour after hour passed, and while usually after a short time, 60 minutes, freezing had set in, these two Russians were still conscious after two hours. After the third hour one Russian told the other, 'Comrade, tell that officer to shoot us.' The other replied, 'Don't expect any mercy from this Fascist dog.' Then they shook hands and said goodbye. The experiment lasted at least five hours until death occurred.

A minimum 200 prisoners were known to have died in these experiments.

US Use of Dachau Data and "Friendly" Nazi Doctors

There were 200 German medical doctors conducting these medical experiments. Most of these doctors were friends of the United States before the war, and despite their inhuman experiments, the U.S. attempted to rebuild a relationship with them after the war.

With full knowledge that the experiments were conducted on captive humans, the U.S. recruited the doctors to work for them. General Dwight D. Eisenhower gave his personal approval to exploit the work and research of the Nazi's in the death camps.

In 1969, Americans landed on the moon, and two groups of scientist in the control center shared the credit, the rocket team from Peenemunde, Germany, under the leadership of Werner von Braun, these men had perfected the V-2s which were built in the Nordhausen caves where 20,000 slave laborers from prison camp Dora had been worked to death.

The second group were the space doctors, lead by 71-year-old Dr. Hubertus Strughold, whose work was pioneered in Experimental Block No. 5 of the Dachau concentration camp and the torture and death of hundreds of inmates.

The torture chambers that was used to slowly kill the prisoners of the Nazi's were the test beds for the apparatus that protected Neil Armstrong from harm, from lack of oxygen, and pressure, when he walked on the moon.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:05 - ID#373284)
CPO@AU, Namaste' I find it so odd in the "information" age that Y2K is virtually is spooky...I do NOT trust WJC or anyone in his government and I no longer have any faith in the general media...none...something is rotten...

Well...a gulp of tequila to ya...what will be...Hmmmmmm...needn't be eh..

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:08 - ID#287186)
Envy - deflation could also be too few buyers
Because they are
1 ) saving instead of spending
2 ) out of work so they don't have much money
This would clobber the optional nice-to-have items the hardest.
Potato chips and whoppers should get cheaper because
folks would be fixing' burgers and popcorn at home instead of spending hard-earned cash eating out. Restaurants would lower their prices to lure people out of their kitchens. Workers in those restaurants should lower their wage demands just so they can get a job. {That is the problem with a minimum wage - neither side can't negotiate down and thus the restaurant closes up and the cooks are unemployed}

I posted an item on why the premium for 1/10oz coins should not be over 10 or 15% but the post was at 23:56 and thus is easily missed.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:13 - ID#373284)
Auric, Namaste' With ALL due respect...I honestly believe that most Americans
have not heard of Y2K...and the percentage of those that have, that do not care or cannot be bothered to become more informed is alarming.

Gulp of tequila at ya...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:15 - ID#242303)
What's behind the CB unloading of gold?
1 ) They have all come to some fundamental realisation that Gold has noFUNDAMENTAL value in people's mind. People valued the Mark a few years ago, not because the Germans had gold but because they had a strong exporting economy. Now they have a weak currency -but the Gold never went anywhere.

2 ) They are trying to hoodwink everyone into the feeling that 'everything is under control' we don't need this cumbersome yellow metal cluttering up our wharehouses to back up our paper.

3 ) They are trying to bring down the price so weaker, gold poor central banks in SE Asia etc could buy some up- very doubtful.

4 ) They foresee an oversupply as demand drops as more countries become 'affluent' educated. remember it is the third world who are the big buyers- and so they want to get out before the #### hits the fan.

add your own reasons....

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:16 - ID#431366)
Maybe the Reverend Billy J. Klinton and his #2 Rev. Al
Will use Y2K as an excuse to start a national effort to drive the evils of technology and capitalism out of this fine nation. I can here him now up on his pulpit preaching about Satan and the root of all evil.
{Just make sure you make a contribution in the basket that is being passed around}

P.S. all his assistants and basket passers are Chinese with AK47s slung across their back - just to make sure you get the hint.

P.P.S. Hillary and Tipper are leading the Choir.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:16 - ID#341312)
Nice post! That's a keeper. By the way, Y2K just might cause some of those tokens to "disappear". Maybe, maybe not. Sooner or later a WHOLE lot of people are going to decide it might be smart to have some of those really durable and shiny metal ones to go along with all of their really cool high tech digital ones. Also lots of the paper ones, too. Just in case, you know. Problem is there's not very many of the paper ones and the metal ones are so scarce most people have never seen them. But they will.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:18 - ID#219363)
I don't think the year 2000 problem is unknown. I was sitting in an office with a financial advisor just the other day and he started asking me question after question regarding the problem and what effect it will have on the markets, the world, etc. I think people are very interested in it. Even my girlfriend has heard of it ( I don't talk about it, so she had to have heard about it from somewhere else ) .

If anything I think it's a little over-hyped and has been for years. I know that's not a popular opinion in this forum, but I'll say what I think anyway. To me, it's just the latest in the "apocalypse now" series of stories you get to see on the evening news every night.

I like talking about a good train wreck as much as the next guy, but I just have this feeling that Y2K isn't going to be it's name. Oh, and I don't think a comet is destined for earth anytime soon either.

All nightmare scenerios forget one thing - people are smart. We figure stuff out. If things break, we tend to fix them.

If I had a nickel for every time the world was going to end ...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:27 - ID#219363)
I just re-read my post and wanted to take some of the emphasis off of it - I DO think Y2K is a problem, and no, I won't be flying that month, and yes, I think some people might do well to have a little precious metal, some extra food, etc, that seems prudent to me. I do not, however, think the local powerplant is going to explode leaving me in nuclear winter for the next millenium or that we're going to have to re-invent the airplane again. I think it'll cause some problems, some inconvenience, etc, but it's not the fifth horseman.

Oh, and then I could just be totally wrong too. *grin*

go gold

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:27 - ID#401237)
Is the Stock Market Decoupled?

Tuesday July 14, 12:01 am Eastern Time

"Billions upon billions of dollars are added each month to the more than $5 trillion total of all mutual ( stock, bond and money market ) funds, and the market defies the old price ratios. "

"Some people say it is a new era. And some say the market is decoupled from reality. "


(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:29 - ID#431366)
tolerant1 - I agree that most folks are ignorant
or think Y2K is nothing to worry about.
Those I talk to on a day-to-day basis as they come past my counter meet either of the above. If they have heard of Y2K they figure a "silver bullet" will fix it in time. They just don't see where changing a couple digits in a computer is a big deal. Besides, Gates will fix it in time.

Those who are getting concerned are the biblical believers and the end-of-the worlders who figure we are way past due for our comeuppance. Then there are the survivalists and conspiracy theorists who have been getting ready for this for a decade. But both of these groups are vastly outnumbered by the deaf, blind, illiterate sheep. All the latter want is their Marlboros, Beer, and Chips - and a full tank of gas to go cruisin.
This bunch is going to have a rude awakening - like a cold glass of water in the face on the morning after. Unfortunately this bunch will come up out of their stupor looking for a fight. They will want to deck the SOB that spoiled their party - and they will kill for another 12 pack of beer, a pack of cigs and some gas.

Gloomy Gus
(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:30 - ID#428207)

I believe that the biggest problem the US will face after Y2K is halitosis. All those electric toothbrushes stop working, and noone can figure out what to do about it.

Oh yeah, and the suicide ( auricide? ) of goldbugs when nothing actually happens.

At least I'll still be eating big Macs, and i dont mean computers, thanks to the daughter's uncollege fund..


buy TechStocks

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:30 - ID#286284)
@Wizened -- CB's are NOT "unloading gold" (!)

CB's are not _selling_ anymore gold than they have, on average, in recent years; i.e. it is not a "rash of selling" that is depressing prices. What _is_ killing the market is CB leasing; this accounts for 2-4 times ( guesstimating here ) the gold flow from direct CB sales. This _is_ new and the phenomenon is accelerating. But remember -- every CB gold loan is a spec short. Hooke's Law applies.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:31 - ID#374204)
It seems that Thailand has joined the the
"pass the loot to the DNC" club, but for
only $700,000. A mere pittance to buy into
US foreign policy.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:33 - ID#401237)
Comptroller warns banks about lax lending practices 

7/13/98 -- 11:56 PM

``As we approach a record eighth year of economic expansion, a time when banks should beshoring up their balance sheets, banks seem instead to be increasing their downside exposure in the commercial and consumer loan market,'' Acting Comptroller of the Currency Julie Williams said Monday.

``The problems we are seeing in the banking system today are serious,'' she said. ``They could presage the same kinds of problems that afflicted the industry nearly a decade ago'' as commercial banks suffered bad loans and charge-offs.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:35 - ID#263254)
Tolerant1 posting at 00:05
Bring in some buzz words;

Bilderberger group
Corporate globalization
FEMA; martial law...

The fog clears just a teensy bit...for some, ey?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:35 - ID#374204)
My spelling is worse than my memory.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:41 - ID#335190)
Congressman says Procter and Gamble tried to twist his arm on trade

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- U.S. Representative Bob Ney, said Monday an official of Procter and Gamble "in no uncertain terms" threatened to cut off contributions to his campaign because he cast unfavorable votes involving trade.

Miller "told a member of my staff, in no uncertain terms, that contributions to my campaign were directly reduced because of my stance against Fast Track ( trade legislation ) and future contributions have been completely put in jeopardy due to my decision to vote against Most Favored Nation status for China," Ney wrote.

Jen Shecter, a researcher with the Centre for Responsive Politics, agreed. "It's not shocking, it's not illegal but it highlights the fact that giving is not about lofty ideological reasons, it's about the bottom line.

"Their money needs to buy them something."

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:41 - ID#255151)

Talked to my sister in law a few minutes ago. Casually brought up the Y2K issue. I can rest assured now. She said she is not worried about it because she has a 1998 Dell Computer. Alas, what could I say? I could have advised her to bury some Gold in the back yard. But I doubt she would have listened: )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:45 - ID#28594)
Highrise--Yr Sun 22:37; Yr Mon 23:44....
HighRISE--You are on a roll! And, trivia--did you know Hilary's brother is married to B. Boxer, Senator CA, daughter? Shall we discuss Japanese cronyism? {:- ) )

UncleRJ@monitoring.the.oak.barrel [and the limes, one hopes] re:"gold sold only/priced only in the USD"...

1/1/1999: 1 USD = 1 is priced in two currencies.
Methinks gold will abide with the currency which honors her discipline? {:- )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:45 - ID#329186)
Squirrel ( premium ID 287186
Thanks for your post and just in case you may think i can't read try this having said that i buy elsewhere the 1 ounce coins ( Gold Investments who act as agent ) where the prices is better 5% although selection is less but they post them much quicker. Buying outside the UK ( europe0 would invlove 17.5% VAT )

Charles Keeling
Excellent post as the days go by it becomes more & more unbeleivable that these European bureaucrats are still bulldozing their EMU ( with incomplete software ) Euro,Euro Uber Alles etc not too difficult why the Germans are hanging onto all their gold .....I forsee it all collapsing and the Europeans squabbling when they revert back to Dm Franks etc or can you see how they will muddle through when Y2k hits them ...... ( even if they have been secretly increasing their CB gold hord )

and the european gravy train chugs on


(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:48 - ID#219363)
@Squirrel, RJ
Isn't that just great. Prices drop and you don't have a paycheck to purchase anything with. *grin*. Thanks for all the help ( you too HighRise ) regarding inflation/deflation. I feel like I have a better grasp on it now - I still don't totally understand all the subtle parts of it, but it's a little more clear than it was.

fiveliter: thanks.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:49 - ID#273227)
My message keeps getting rejected.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:49 - ID#335190)
Protesters cut off water to Australian uranium mine

SYDNEY, July 14 ( Reuters ) - More than 100 people were arrested on Tuesday after the water supply to a planned A$12 billion ( US$7.4 billion ) uranium mine in Australia's remote north was cut off by anti-uranium protesters, police said.

Hundreds of protesters made their way onto the Jabiluka mine site and 112 were arrested after chaining themselves to vehicles and equipment, a Northern Territory police spokeswoman said.

Tuesday's arrests take to more than 340 the number of people arrested since the anti-uranium protest began.

The mine is expected to generate A$12 billion in revenue in its 28-year life, making Australia one of the world's leading uranium producers. Australia has about 30 percent of the world's uranium deposits but less than 10 percent of the market.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:50 - ID#273227)
Charles Keeling 23:57 part 1
I disagree with you. Bill Gates is not one very best brains in the computer industry. He is a businessman, a very good one. His technology savy isn't anywhere near the top shelf level.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:51 - ID#273227)
part 3
Embedded controllers? Has anyone out there written or seen any embedded controller code that depends on the year? I can't remember ever seeing any, I've seen alot of code. I'm looking for first hand experience here. Email me if you don't want to post, I'll post the findings.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:51 - ID#273227)
part 2

As for the Y2K subject did anyone ever notice that all the referrences are by the same sources that are promoting the paper market. If you don't believe them when they talk about the Intel, Yahoo, and the boys why do you believe them when they talk about Y2K?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:51 - ID#373284)
Envy, Squirrel, Namaste' and first off...gulp of tequila to both of you. Let me say
this to start...if it was just me I would fill a boat and just take off for a while and that would be that...sailboat...however...due to the fact that certain family members are either very senior or have health problems which are discomforting to say the least...I have delved into this from many different perspectives due to my sense of family and what I believe is the correct manner to act in.

I do not think the world will end, I do think NYC ( as will other large US cities ) is going to be a war zone...I am not sure 82nd AB would be able to deal with certain parts of Manhattan...sorry, but I grew up there and have in one way or another been around it most of my life...NYC can get very, very rough...and I mean or is a whole new ballgame in the canyons of the city...

Will supplies be doubt...will there be severe problems with utilities, yes...should one take the prudent steps to have emergency water, food, supplies on hand well in advance...yes...time frame...minimum 1 year supply...cost minimal...especially when one considers the alternative...

Each of you have different opinions as to the amount of people that have heard of Y2K...I happen to lean towards Squirrel's thinking, does that make it "right" thinking...who can say for sure...

Can we overcome this...yes...but I guess what bothers me the most is that we could have a state by state, community by community awareness campaign which could have been escalating for at least two years now and yet we have nothing...

Envy-I do think gold and silver will prove to be valuable insurance, although a great part of the subject matter in your post I agree with in a general way...I am sure over a beer we would arrive at something more than a general agreement as to your thinking and what you are trying to express.

Squirrel-what can I say...much of what you think I agree with although I pray it does not get as nasty as you sometimes paint the picture. But, I cannot disagree in any manner, shape or form in your desire to prepare for the worst...

Well I have rambled enough...another gulp of tequila to the both of you...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:52 - ID#284255)
Americans 75% aware???? Could this be so???

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:54 - ID#242303)
@ Sam-A
Canada, Belgium, Argentina, Australia are some of the CB who have sold some or almost all of their Gold reserves.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 00:55 - ID#287186)
CPO@AU - re hiding stuff
If you get driven out of your home or your community by predators or gov't and getting back in to recover your valuables would be risky then I think hiding Gold and basic bugout bags at several locations out of town in the hills but still nearby and accessible is the best idea.
Stash some with friends but figure they may also be attacked and may be on the run. Stay away from areas that metal detector folk may frequent. Also make sure any food is the metal or foil packed stuff to prevent critters from digging it up. Steer away from flood plains or avalanche country. Some remote non-decript boulder in a boulder field would be about right. You may have to stash a prybar somewhere too. Trees are not good because Christmas bandits and firewood poachers steal them and wind knocks 'em over. Stash 'em someplace where nobody in their right mind would go - except in search of deer to shoot and maybe not even then.
See the bobag.html at

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:01 - ID#335190)
GM executive predicts 'long haul' before Flint strikes end

FLINT, Mich. ( AP ) -- With no sign that a settlement is near, General Motors Corp. is defending its costly strategy of fighting the United Auto Workers' efforts to preserve union jobs at two parts plants.

"Is the approach that has cost GM more than $1 billion to date worth it?" GM vice-president Donald C. Hackworth asked GM's salaried employees in a recorded message Monday. "Looking at it in actual dollar terms, it's hard to justify.

"But our long-term viability is on the line. And that means our future job security. For that very reason I say, 'absolutely."'

GM argues that the union is protecting outdated and inefficient work practices that have helped make GM the highest-cost major automaker.

Hackworth warned employees not to expect an end to the walkouts soon. "It appears as though we have a long haul before a settlement is reached," he said. "It is very difficult to see how this will all be brought to an end."

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:10 - ID#373284)
RE: Y2K - ordered some goods from these, bang..boom they took
care of the order and answered all my questions. Y2K or not, these folks have some excellent products for emergencies:

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:11 - ID#431366)
Auric - your sister-in-law's response is sooooo typical
Folks are looking no further than their desktop at home or at work.
They don't see the chips in the transformer/switching complex which may shut down a 500KV crosscountry line - which will cause overloads on those producers still up which will kick out their breakers.....
and the brownout will burn out refrigerator motors and submersible water well pumps ( which are not fun to pull out in the middle of winter!!!! )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:12 - ID#28594)
Sharefin--"Americans 75% aware???? Could this be so???"
Mon ami--remember that meeting you attended some months ago? The "expert"
was as much an "expert" as 75% of Americans are "aware". Perhaps this is
typical "polling": define aware...75% of Americans have heard of that "computer problem thingy...something about the year 2000?"! YOU are aware! The rest of us are struggling to catch up. {:- ) )
Goodnight all.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:15 - ID#411259)
..... Folks .....

Charles Keeling -

Actually, I was not kidding in the least. I understand well the ramifications of YK2, and I agree they have horrendous potential. I am interested in some of the nuts and bolts of the thingie and that is the root of my question. Im a wiz at computer applications but a dunderhead about the code that makes my dazzling programs run. I have considered that no matter how compliant you are, some computer down the network is out of whack which screws you completely so the can-o-worms is squirmy indeedy.

As to being half done, this is more optimistic than other figures I have read which put the IRS, Defense, FAA, Social Security, et al are less than 40% compliant. Estimates of completion range from four to seventeen years which, in government years, really means about a century and a half, give or take a decade..

Jefsilver7 ( Cool handle ) -

Remember a couple months ago when the comm satellite was knocked out? ( I just KNOW it was LGB who done it ) 40 million pagers go silent.. no biggy, yes? How about this.. The Future Source, which is the source of our live feed from the trading floor was out, the telephones at COMEX were down This one single satellite hobbled business for more than a week, and I couldnt get my pages.

Think what would happen if half a dozen went down? Twenty? A hundred? All of em?

Yes, we got along fine without computers for all of human history.

Today, everything in our lives is affected by a computer

Cant put that genie back in the bottle.

Bingo -

Nothing lasts forever. I am not arguing that trading gold in US dollars is an absolute for all time, it is just an absolute for our time. It would just require a worldwide change in the way gold is traded to alter this method. While this is possible, it would be a rather large undertaking, and not one that is likely to occur overnight. Looking for this to happen seems a bet with somewhat longer odds than assuming business will continue as it has, yes?

Sam - "But remember -- every CB gold loan is a spec short."

True, but unlike a naked spec short, producers have the ability to repay the loan with physical gold. Besides, we keep hearing wonderful numbers hereabouts regarding this or that mine's "cost of production", which is a crucial piece of info when considering to buy into a stock, yes? These cost of production numbers suggest that most mines locked in higher prices through forward sales and are now delivering gold worth $290 an ounce that they were paid $360 or $380 for. Not a bad return considering the lease rates drop as low as 2% per year. I would call that excellent business acumen. The mines you hear of in trouble today, had not the proven reserves, or they did not properly hedge production through forward sales.

As much as the collected folks here hate forward sales, it is done with every commodity and it is the only way to properly produce any commodity.

Envy - "Over Hype"

Aye, theres the rub. Will Hollywood come at us full force with the glitzy hype until everyone in just bored to tears by the whole thingie? Now, thats an idea. Maybe I should write a YK2 disaster novel Hmmmmmmmm. Maybe a movie, too. The merchandising nut alone would be substantial

I like it..

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:24 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' gulp to ya
Forgot to say thanks for putting that nifty Y2K list together...thanks...

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:25 - ID#24135)
Get Back in your CheeseBox !
for Hedgehog..
OH HO .. NOW the silly one wants to look at Lihir
on the basus of a purchase at Christmas and a sale at
its high point at Easter and show better than 90 % gain
IF you BUY Lihir at its Low and Sell at its HIGH
( which means you would be SOLD OUT NOW ..
probably a good idea )
But if you did the same with Harmony .. buy at $2.25
and sell at $6.00 ( its high ) you would make 160 %.
I actually came close to this - I was lucky .. less
lucky buying back the rand at 5.7.
Anyway you slice it .. Harmony has outperformed Lihir
and will continue to do so.
I have bought back a little Harmony - I would never
touch Lihir at anything like this price.. IMO Lihir
is a pretty good project with way too much stock issued .

BUT BUY IT .. much better for you to learn by experience.

For Gold Dancer ..
Maybe Tito the banker isnt so bad .. I feel better
about him whenever I read a posting by CHEESEHEAD ..
It could have been WORSE !

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:26 - ID#255151)
sharefin--75% Awareness

The problem is being ignored in Indianapolis. There is nothing from local government, media, business, hospitals, utilities, fire, police, etc. to indicate an awareness of the seriousness of this problem. They were supposed to have been on this aggressively by now. They are not even out of the starting gate. My guess is that this is typical of most cities.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:30 - ID#287186)
CPO@AU - I guess it pays to shop around
your site at Goldline at
has prices for Maple Leafs of:
Maple Leaf 1/10oz 30.25 = US$49.50
Maple Leaf 1oz 200.25 = US$327.71

AJPM beats them at US$307 and US$35.09 respectively

KITCO {BART} sells the 1oz for US$318.18
I'd bet Bart could work up a good deal for 1/10oz MLs
if he could sell a roll of 'em ( 50 I think in a roll )
It would be worth giving Bart an extra $10 for the use of this site.
Deduct the $10 from the coin cost and expense it site rental instead.

Maybe I'll call Blanchard in the morning
to see what they want for Maple Leafs.
I need to get some more Silver ones soon anyway.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:43 - ID#287186)
Chas - the Appalachian folk will survive Y2K better than most
It sounds like they also have a leg up on kids hereabouts.
Since you have witnessed - as per your Thu Jul 09 1998 20:53
"I have traded around the Southern Appalachians, gold and crafts etc. I know bunches of people that I am sure can't read , but I don't know any that can't make change for a $10 bill."
Your average Walmart or McDonalds cash register operator ( I am reluctant to call 'em cashiers ) is totally befuddled if the cash register gives a wrong answer because they put in the wrong amount tendered ( I've seen their ilk void a transaction and start over for such a booboo ) .
Maybe having the computers and power go out for a few years would teach folks more respect for learning the basics.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:44 - ID#411259)
..... Squirrel .....

I know where the 1 oz gold Maple Leaf can be had for 305.40.

It pays to be thorough, yes?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:45 - ID#287186)
RJ - I had a hunch you would have an idea
Hmmmm - how about Silver Maple Leafs?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:47 - ID#411259)
..... Here .....

(Tue Jul 14 1998 01:49 - ID#257148)
Thanks for the info on the Royal Mint.. Have to wait till next July for the Lady Di commemorative, have to just buy the margarine in the meantime. Are they gonna do a Ginger Spice Girl Commemorative? Sounds like an untapped market, by golly.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 02:04 - ID#286284)
@ Wizened -- re purported CB liquidation sales

Don't believe the propaganda -- CB selling ain't the problem. It's the CB leasing that's the problem. Every CB loan is a naked spec. Hooke's Law applies.

I refer you to a WGC press release of July 1, '98.

LONDON - 1 July 1998: The official launch of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) this week and the approach of European Monetary Union ( EMU ) raise a number of interesting possibilities for gold in the official sector, but the lack of transparency in the activities of central banks in the gold market may be misleading traders, analysts and investors.

During the last few years an increasing number of central banks - over 70 at the latest count - are now actively managing their gold reserves to improve the return on their holdings.

These banks have been especially active in the gold leasing and swaps markets, and in the past two years alone Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) estimates that the official sector has mobilised another 1,000 tonnes. Two-thirds of this came last year and brought the total of central bank gold in the market to above 3,700 tonnes, equivalent to the total holding of Germany's Bundesbank.

The lack of transparency in these arrangements has created the impression that more gold has been sold than is the actual case. IMF statistics show that total gold holdings in the official sector have declined by only 2.6% over the past three years - from 34,781 tonnes at the end of 1994 to 33,860 tonnes at the end of 1997 - just 921 tonnes.

This contrasts very strongly with the perception that there has been a wave of central bank selling. There have been a number of high-profile sales from countries such as Argentina and Australia and earlier this year the Belgians disclosed having sold 299 tonnes. But this latter sale was conducted through five other central banks and the IMF statistics would seem to indicate that gold from several of the other central bank 'sales' have ended up in other official holdings.

The Bank of Portugal is one central bank which has admitted to using gold swaps as part of its policy to secure the maximum possible yield from its reserves, but it has not sold any gold. The Austrian central bank also makes no secret of its use of gold swaps and recently revealed that its holdings had 'fallen' by 83.2 tonnes but this was not represented by outright sales. It reflected mainly an increase of 69.7 tonnes in gold swaps which will return to reserves on maturity.

Gold swaps and deposits by the official sector have risen significantly in recent years to meet an increase in the demand for liquidity in the market. This may have clouded perceptions to the point where some of these lending operations have been misinterpreted as outright sales and have contributed to the negative market sentiment for gold.

However, there have also been a significant number of central banks adding to their gold holdings. GFMS estimates that some 19 countries purchased around 438 tonnes of gold in 1997. Part of this buying consisted of local mine production but the outcome overall was that net official sector sales were around 406 tonnes. This was considerably less than the net 622 tonnes sold in 1992 and the 494 tonnes sold in 1993, all of which was absorbed by the market without major upheaval. Indeed, without these sales there would have been a significant deficiency in the market as total consumption exceeded mine production by 1368 tonnes in 1992, 1254 tonnes in 1993 and 1790 tonnes last year.


Robert Pringle or Dick Ware,
CPPS, World Gold Council
+ 44 ( 0 ) 171 930 5171
Keith Irons, Bankside Consultants
+ 44 ( 0 ) 171 220 7477

(Tue Jul 14 1998 02:14 - ID#220325)
Free Y2K computer evaluation software
This company claims to provide free evaluation software to see if you computer is Y2K compliant. Http://

(Tue Jul 14 1998 02:22 - ID#252355)
What is hookes law?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 02:23 - ID#248180)
Ruskie Palladium
@RJ 21:51 Do they have the metal? What is your call? I think that if they do it has already been committed to the Japanese. They have to secure the new Yen Loans with something.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 02:34 - ID#411259)
..... Junior .....


I suspect anything that could be termed a "stockpile" lies entirely in Russias past. I also suspect palladium sponge shipments durring the last two months were facilitated by Tiger. The Russians still have production ability but it is a shell of its former self and the capacity to increase production is inelastic.

As goes palladium, so goes platinum.

Only thing that worries me there is the obvious fall-off in Japanese jewelry purchases. JM says this is offset by Chinese buying, but the CPM group disputes this in their latest report and calls for a decrease in demand this year by 98,000 ounces. Whether this possible decreased demand will be also offset by decreased production or availability remains to be seen. Im betting production cant keep up.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:03 - ID#257148)
busty tonight


Ain't seen no pigeons, mate. They get et around here ( I shan't make my stomach a compost heap for vegetables, Hedgehog ) so maybe was trapped while incoming.
The only time I ordered pigeon breasts from a menu I asked the waitress if pigeons had small breasts. She blushed.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:06 - ID#248180)
PGM's - Russia
Our bet is that existing Production facilities cannot keep up with demand. Falling Asian demand ( if correct ) will not matter much. The Russian "Stock-Pile" is doubtful. Ex "Large" Russian Mining facilities are going the way of the dinasor. PGM's and PG mining stocks are still attractive to us we like the future.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:06 - ID#257148)
I mean busy

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:14 - ID#257148)
a scrabble of collective nouns
ok, it's quiet....time for some mischief

with deep thanks to SDR, Thank you, sir. Here is a scrabble of collective nouns followed by ANOTHER competition, which anyone can enter cos there ain't no prize:

A shrewdness of apes
A pace of asses
A cete of badgers
A shoal of bass
A sloth of bears
A singular of boars
A clouder of cats
An army of caterpillars
A rag of colts
A murder of crows
A cowardice of curs
A dole ( formerly dule ) or piteousness of doves or turtledoves
A raft of duck ( collected in the water, e.g., to sleep )
A paddling of duck ( swimming )
A team of duck ( in flight )
A charm of finches ( isnt that lovely! )
A skulk or troop ( and sometimes cloud or earth ) of foxes ( which,
however, are solitary animals )
A gaggle of geese ( stationary )
A skein of geese ( flying )
A trip of goats
A cluster of grasshoppers
A cast of hawks ( two )
A siege of herons
A drift of hogs
A harras of ( stud ) horses ( still used in Latin languages )
A troop of kangaroos
A kindle or litter of kittens
A deceit of lapwings
An exaltation, ascension or bevy of larks
A leap of leopars
A tidings of magpies
A stud ( sic ) of mares
A richness of martens
A troop or shrewdness of monkeys
A barren of mules ( perhaps originally a bearing or burden )
A watch of nightingales
A parliament of owls
A muster or ostentation of peacocks
A nye or covey of pheasants ( on the ground )
A boquet of pheasants ( rising )
A congregation of plovers
An unkindness of plovers
A crash of rhinoceroses
A wisp or walk of snipe
A host of sparrows
A dray of squirrels
A sounder of swine
A knot of toads
A descent of woodpeckers
A murder of crows
A murmuration of sandpipers


and what ( wot ) about goldbugs? So far, suggestions include:

a bar of goldbugs
a tailings of goldbugs
a scarab of goldbugs
a squelch of goldbugs

please feel free to add your suggestion.......

Remember, there's no golden prize, just kismet for the kewlest suggestion.....

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:45 - ID#386245)
Never quiet when...
...big 'a' is around.

Just got back from the Moscow circus with the 14y.o. daughter. Any of you haven't seen it--go!!!

Only thing missing was Aussie politicians--could have used a few more clowns.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:52 - ID#386245)
You forgot...
...a Kibble of Kitcoites.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 03:59 - ID#386245)
Food riots in sight...
A strike and pickets of one of the biggest food wholesalers in Canberra is giving us a taste of things to come when the REAL food shortages begin. Things could get nasty very quickly and I hope all Kitcoites are well prepared.

One day I will learn to spell pidgeons!! Will now go and get another bear.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 04:48 - ID#93232)
snowbird 02:14
I've checked out safetynet/yes2k and it is only testing your cmos/bios ( hardware ) . It does NOT test any software you may have. Most PC software has compliance issues, even the newer stuff. Microsoft even offers a y2k patch for Windows 95. Check it out:

(Tue Jul 14 1998 05:03 - ID#432148)
RJ - History of Gold - Baruch
Yes, times are very different now. Will Y2K cause a regression and prove Baruch right once again? I hope not, but, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Insurance you know ;- )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 05:08 - ID#93232)
This is Windows 95 page:
And a lot of newer software has minor Y2k issues...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 06:10 - ID#26793)
We no longer need a "Safe Haven". Whew! That was a close one!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 06:21 - ID#411440)
@ ALL re LEASE RATES: one month lease rates have fallen to 1.06%
from the 1.16% recorded yesterday. One week ago lease rates were over
1.40% This is a very significant decline as it signifies that
near term shorting of gold is minimal. The one month forward rate
however is up to 4.60%. This difference between lease rates and
interest rates is a measure of the profit margin of the gold carry
trade. This is quite high. So we have a situation where the
gold carry trade is unusually lucarative, but according to the one
month lease rates, there are few takers. This would seem to indicate
that there is minimal room for short selling at these low prices of
gold. The shorts perceive a bottom.

One year lease rates are also down: to 1.89% from 2.00% just yesterday.
one week ago these lease rates were 2.06%. The forward rates are
also up to 3.90% from 3.75% one week ago. The one year gold carry
trade is marginally more profitable, but the drop in lease rates shows
there are fewer takers.

To place the above in context, When the one year lease rates get up to
3% or more, and forward rates for one year gold get down to under 2.5%,
the Central banks lose control and the POG explodes.

The present present lease/forward rate conditions indicate the CBs
are firmly in control, with the POG held nicely below $300 where
there is every indication, they intend to hold it.

IMHO, leasing is a false dishoarding of CB gold that is intended to
depress the POG, so that more gold can be accumulated on the spot market
by the CBs, especially European CBs. The European CBs are accumulating
gold to support the EURO. It makes no sense to sell gold, and stuff
CB reserves with US$ that are destined to fall in value as the EURO
is introduced. Even a 15% gold backing of the EURO is far superior
to the backing of the US$.

Does anyone out there know how long the appointment of Duisenburg to
the ECB is? Is it a one year term? Duisenburg has been so
anti-gold in the past, that his appointment could be yet another
strategy to depress the the POG near term.

I have not been posting for the last 4 days, as my server went off-line
and took off with my prepaid subscription amounting to 5 months.
Bummer. It has taken 4 days to link up again, during which gold
plummeted to $288 and Japan again toys with the abyss.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
Normandy Mining news

(Tue Jul 14 1998 06:33 - ID#26793)
Russian goldminers will be given right to export directly, bypass government.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 06:56 - ID#253246)
John Disney*************Is Peter Munk buying
I was curious if you have nany thoughts what what Munk may be buying
as ABX has made most of its recent aquisitions in July - August
time frame

I agree with your friend's email on who is holding the other end of the $400 hedge

(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:03 - ID#29048)
Y2K remediation
Much has been posted about the problem, here is some info on some solutions.

Compaq computers have Y2k problems with BIOS dates as late as 1996. I am using TF2000 to test more than 150 pcs and it is working well. The product is developed in the UK. It does three tests; rollover, reboot and leap year and includes a fix if needed. This product is not free. All of the tests can be done manually at no cost, so I'm not trying to sell anything. TF2000 makes the process much faster and provides reports that management loves to have.

Compaq supplies free fixes in the form of Softpaqs for most of their models.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:04 - ID#259282)
ROR... I think Parcel Plus belongs to Canada Post. Federally owned Crown Corp.
The best franchise in Canada is Canadian Tire Corp. They even print their own money. ( a type of discount dollar ) . Computer training Franchises have been big but not that big. All of our big franchises are American owned subsidaries ( sp ) .Education franchises I think are going to grow because taxpayers are unhappy with our educators.Too bad. We haven't done the prison one yet but it may come to pass. All we need is one of the Prime Ministers friends lobbying for it. Tim Horton's Donuts is a top quality franchise. Very popular. Gotta go.

ted butler__A
(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:09 - ID#317184) your 01:15
Just for the sake of discussion, in your reply to sam, about metal loans being short sales, you stated these aren't naked spec shorts, as producers can deliver with production, and that forward sales are done with all commodities and are prudent.

For the record, a producer "hedged" 5 to 10 years forward will be in the same position as a naked spec short in a price spike. Also, in no other commodity, except precious metals, does the selling of the physical commodity take place at the outset of the loan, or hedge, or forward sale to raise cash. When a farmer hedges, he sells futures, he doesn't "borrow" corn from the elevator in some cockamamie transaction that has so many twists and turns that even the originators can't follow them. Forward sales aren't hedges, futures may be. Forward sales and metal loans are scams that have distorted the markets.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:12 - ID#43185)
I seem to recall that Duisenburg's term is for eight years except that there is some talk that he agreed to give it up at the end of four years so that the French guy could share the term. This was so the French would go along since they very much wanted their guy in. The last I heard was thst Duisenburg was saying he had never officialy agreed to that.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:22 - ID#43185)
saving for a rainy day
The ideal investment would be one that is cheap to buy when times are good, jobs are plentiful, and money is not hard to come by, but is high in value when times are hard, jobs are scarce, and one has to cash in because one really needs the money.

If anyone finds such an ideal investment, they should not bemoan the fact that it's price keeps going down while times get better.

Nor should they feel bad if the rainy day and hard times never come.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:32 - ID#401460)
"Asian central banks may hold euro if stable--Buba"

Tuesday July 14, 6:39 am Eastern Time

By Chikafumi Hodo

"TOKYO, July 14 ( Reuters ) - German Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer said on Tuesday that the euro has the potential to surpass the current status of the deutschemark as an official reserve currency in Asian central banks."

The US $ has competition.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:38 - ID#350194)
Good Morning Gollum!
Gollum - Your 7:22 is the first thing I read today when I fired up the terminal. I think I can turn it off now as your words were so beautifully succint and meaningful and true that I will probably not see better this day. Thank-You for giving us Kitco's 'Thought Of The Day'!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 07:40 - ID#401460)
Repost from last night
Date: Mon Jul 13 1998 23:44
HighRise ( Pages 338 - 365, Chapter 11 ) ID#401237:

"The Great Reckoning" Davidson & Rees-Mogg
It is again time to get the book out Gang.

We must understand the sequence of events that are taking place right

Inflation vs Deflation depends on which shore you are standing and
whether you are looking at your self or others. If you spend your dollars
in the US they buy one thing, if you spend them in Asia they buy another.
Try to buy a bar of Gold with a local Asian currency.

The US printing presses are still running, as fast as possible, in an
attempt to inflate the world out of this mess. $13 Billion to Russian $18
Billion to some guy in Asia, etc.

" Danger Sign #1"
"A rising percentage of depth compared to normal GNP."

Danger Sign #2
"Hypernormal returns following decades of stable growth, are a danger
sign that a period of subnormal growth is likely to ensue."

Danger Sign #3
Debt compounding faster than Income.

Danger Sign #4
"A falling ratio of M-2 to the monetary spite of a massive
increase in the monetary base and low interest rates. The monetary
base has increased almost five times faster than M-2."

Danger Sign #5
"A falling ratio of money supply to debt."

Danger Sign #6
"A money supply more than twelve times greater than the treasury's
stock of monetary Gold." ( 1993 five years ago? )

Danger Sign #7
"Overextended Collateral."

Danger Sign #8
"Foreign Debt Defaults."

Danger Sign #9
"Financial Scandals"

"... In short, the magic new invention to prevent depression was for
government to spend money and if necessary to print money."

"'What are the factors that have prevailed in prosperous countries that
account for the rare rectitude of political leaders who did not spend
money out of an empty pocket and inflate the currency?' Any serious
attempt to answer that bring you face to face with the fact that the
inflationary remedy for deflationary depression is nothing new. Nor is it a
self-evidently a remedy."

"Money was so seriously devalued that a measure of wheat which, in
Egypt, had cost six drachmai in the first century A.D., cost two million
shortly after A.D. 344."

See last nights news and post re: the Euro $, US $, and the YEN. These
are not just idle statements or threats.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:00 - ID#29048)
A nugget from SI posts...
GNI Reports:

The first half of the year saw central bank sales in Europe, a huge gold collection in Korea, liquidation from Far East investors, deflation in Japan, currency collapses in Australia and South Africa leading to producer hedging, a strong dollar and massive fund sales. The second half of this year could see a huge Japanese stimulus package, no central bank sales from Europe, North American gold mine closures, a stable dollar, an
end to Far Eastern liquidation and fund short covering ( or even buying ) . Overall conditions seem right to expect prices to bounce.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:01 - ID#401460)
Danger Sign #9 "Financial Scandals" "Financial Scandals"

Cendent: Financial audit shows problems several years back - major scandal.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:12 - ID#354133)
Before making a decision about where to buy, do your homework. Write me at: There are better places to shop. LOTS better...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:19 - ID#255151)
Where To Buy Gold

How about making at least a small portion of your Gold purchases through Kitco? Gonna do that right now.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:30 - ID#401460)
Sp. Ck.

Cendent correction Cendant


(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:34 - ID#29048)
C.P.I. up only .1%
Another euphoric day for paper.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:43 - ID#350194)
Kitcoite Toronto Meeting July 30th. "Stop The World I Want To Get Off!"
We have set the location for the informal July 30th Kitcoite Meeting in
Toronto on July 30th at 7:00 PM. We will be welcoming Reify as he passes
through on his way to New York State. ( A New York City Meeting is also in the works ) All are welcome but please e-mail Mooney at: if you intend to attend as we have made reservations and need to confirm numbers. Attending Kitcoites will
spend "... a lovely summer's evening ( of comraderie ) with an outdoor
view of the ROM ( Royal Ontario Museum ) & Philosophers' Walk with
luscious food and fine drink..." according to one attendee who
recommended the spot. It shall be on the outdoor balcony of the 'Cafe
con Libros' which is on the north side of Bloor just west of Avenue
Road. The address is 208 Bloor St. W. and is easily
accessible by subway or Highway 401 and then drive south on Avenue Road. Lots of parking nearby. "And a fine time will be had by all". ( Beatles - St Pepper's ) . And now we return you back to reality on this lovely July
14th 1998!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:50 - ID#401460)

August Gold

September Silver

September High Grade Copper

October Platinum

September Palladium

August Crude Oil Light

August Heating Oil

(Tue Jul 14 1998 08:52 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: Thank you for the info. An 8 year term for Duisenberg
is not good news for the POG, either near or long term. I must admit
that I am caught between two theories:

The the long term POG is:

1 ) UP because the lease rate/gold carry trade is an artificial
dishoarding of gold to depress the near term POG so that
European CBs can buy more to make the new EURO more
attractive as an alternative to the $US as a world currency


2 ) DOWN because the CBs are trying to demonetize gold and move
into more liquid paper alternatives that are income generating.

As a gold bug, I favor #1 because:

a ) Even Duisenberg states that the EURO will have 15% gold backing, and
that is 15X more that the US$.

b ) Demonetizing gold means selling off reserves, and this is
happening far less than in the past two years.

c ) Lease rates of 1% for 1 month gold have the effect of grossly
depressing the spot POG. The CBs know this, so depressing the
spot POG is intended. Why would the ECBs depress the POG if
they intend to sell off their reserves? Ergo, they do not intend
to demonetize gold.

The conclusion I have drawn re a ) b ) c ) above is that the CBs of
strong currencies are buying gold at depressed prices, not selling.
They will try to keep the POG below $US300 until they have accumulated
their fill.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:09 - ID#401460)
Another scandal



(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:09 - ID#412172)
I give you the next Prime Minister
of Japan, Kajiyama:

I do not believe his verbal missteps will hurt him anymore than they did Reagan. What do you think?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:10 - ID#401460)
Brother of U.S. first lady meets strongman on business.

The news conference was held at a Phnom Penh hotel owned by a local businessman barred from the United States because of suspected involvement in drug trafficking. Rodham said he was unaware of the connection.

Rodham and his associates have worked together for nearly five years and have made similar exploratory trips to Kuwait, Romania and Japan, he said.

The United States has taken a critical stance on Hun Sen since he deposed Ranariddh last year, refusing to supply direct election aid to his government.

Opponents have accused Hun Sen of using violence, including murder, and fear to ensure he wins the vote.

Rodham drew criticism last year after the Boston Globe reported that a Paraguayan official had offered him $100,000 to arrange a meeting between Paraguay's leader and President Clinton. Rodham denied taking it.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:14 - ID#401460)
Gold ( CMX )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:18 - ID#26793)
Nuclear power Pakistan in imminent risk of default; looking for a Moslem bailout. Bomb for sale?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:20 - ID#401460)

July 14, 1998
09:12AM New York Time Timezone Equivalents

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:24 - ID#113316)
The POG and POS are climbing steadily to their 200 day MAs. When they break through we are off to the races. Will coincide with a confluence of a number of other events - top in the US stock market, decline in the US dollar, rise in oil prices, recovery in Japan and Russia, etc.

Keep in mind that the POG and POS have been held DOWN by extraordinary economic events. IMHO, those events are about to fade or reverse. When that happens, the POG and POS will move higher, and I expect the increase will be fast and furious.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:26 - ID#401460)
Donald - Pakistan

Karachi 100

Pakistan has been crashing for some time, you are right, they will have to sell a bomb for cash. Of course they may be a Nuclear front for the Arabs.

Check out the chart.^KSE&d=1y


(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:27 - ID#26793)
IMF bailout of Russia leaves IMF with no funds for another crisis

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:29 - ID#298380)
Thoughts about Y2K

The Julian calender may offer some possibilities. It is used by some manufacturers to code
production dates. It is easily understood.
Today is Julian date 98/195
Dec 31 1999 is 99/365,
Let Jan 1,2000 be 99/366, using the 99 as a temporary year until a more appropriate solution
is discovered to deal with the current problem.
Feb 29 2000 ( leap year ) would be 99/425 and so on.
This may buy us about 21 months until 99/999 rolls around which may present another problem due to the number of digits.

No silver bullet ,but may be something to think about. Comments please.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:32 - ID#147201)
Squirrel your 1:43
You got that right. However, I was talking about dealing seriously with illiterate adults on timber, land , rights to prospect as well as more retail like items. The kids are learning, but still somewhat deficient. Where the "big" monet is, there is no deficiency in mentally figuring the result. Have you ever heard about "ground figuring"? If not , I'll explain later, Charlie

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:33 - ID#288186)
SILVERFOX;Right on!!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 09:39 - ID#316256)
Global Stability
Check this link out. If you think the guys in the patriot/militia/right wing are crazy, these folks are crazier. Follow the links, it gets weird.

Dave in CO
(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:04 - ID#229103)
@LSteve - those crazy right-wingers
Funny, but when I grew up a few decades ago, I and my family would have been considered middle-of-the-road both politically and socially.

My ideas have not changed substantially if at all, but if I were middle-of-the-road today I'd be supporting Klinten and his ilk. I guess that since I am a believer in the Bible, the Constitution, and the Second Amendment then I must be one of those right-wingers.

The world IS in big trouble if decent people who fall into today's definition of right-wingers are considered crazy.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:04 - ID#284255)
SDR - Auric - I couldn't resist that one.
Whenever are 75% of any race aware. ( :- ) ) )
Awareness is climbing rapidly here in OZ though.
Many people are nattering away about it.
Not that they are aware of the many implications.
Millenium bug could create Titanic-like global disaster

Apocalypse Soon.


Y2K Bomb To Hit Email, Too ( scroll down )

Laws of the Year 2000

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:06 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
Warning signs everywhere.

The Toronto Mining Index McClellan Summation Index is now declining. The slide is not steep, much like the recent advance was not strong. This should not be ignored and cautious gold stock investors ( oxymoron? ) should wait for this to turn up.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have expanded again to the 10 to 20 issues per day. This is a sign of weakness. The all clear signal is a reading below 6 issues per day for a week or so.

The trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last low in the Toronto Gold Index broke last week. Another low is required to reset this indicator.

BUT, the ratio of gold to the Worden Brothers Gold Index ( WG580 ) is again extremely oversold. This points to the potential of a meaningful bottom.

The Summation Index has to turn up before anything worthwhile can occur.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:10 - ID#251166)
@ Mike Stewart re. tech stuff
You're good. Thank you!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:10 - ID#26467)
FWIW Covered ABX at 18 1/8 and went long with stop 17 7/8
for the two day anticipated rally.Have a good day .

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:11 - ID#258427)
where'd everybody go?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:22 - ID#320202)
Mike Stewart, tech.update

your analyses was sorely needed, thank you

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:23 - ID#251166)
What's up with this stuff today?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:26 - ID#284255)
More stories
Computers run damn near everything today.
What happens when computers run haywire.

Don't forget to factor in the desktop

Y2K useless facts and figures

Top 10.5 excuses for missing the deadline on Y2K compliance

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:29 - ID#242325)
Gold and the Rand
This morning's gold rally probably reflects the big overnight jump in the SA rand. Threfore its longevity is questionable.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:29 - ID#320202)
BillD___where did everyone go

guess,People are getting tired hearing about squirrels putting nutty things away, and namaste , ( whatever that means? ) and gulp, and the constant Clinton watch, not to forget the one who recycles news , we can all read if interested on canoe etc.
I am spending a lot of time scrolling for some good tidbits ! yes?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:31 - ID#57232)
Millenium Bug
sharefin: Heard on the radio that WJC will be talking about '2yk' ( commmentator's mispronouncement ) . The y2k business is really becoming a hot topic of discussion.
My take on all this is that the biggest problems will be with local and federal governments all over the world, as they are notorious for doing nothing ( or too little too slowly ) even when the wolf is at the door. Countries where corporate computers are upgraded every year or every other year will be at lowest risk for trouble. Companies with their own mainframes that are at risk will probably have backups on modernized pc's that can be used in a pinch, though less efficienty. Companies with large systems that cannot be transferred to a pc-based backup, such as large billing/inventory networks, automatic tellers, telephone switching systems, electrical power flow management, etc. will also be at risk. Obsolete embedded computer chips can only be replaced, not backed up by pc's.
Now with the attention given to y2k in this country and others there is a good and bad side. The good side is the needed attention to fix problems. The bad side is that public awareness of possible problems will increase the likelihood of savings or other bank withdrawals to cover a period of expected financial uncertainty. I am a firm believer that facing the truth is the best policy -- but it does require the need for a calm approach -- as the perception of a pending disaster could create the disaster one wants to avoid.
Even withour the Millenium bug, there will be a number of groups that will be forecasting the end of the world by year 2000.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:35 - ID#187109)
whot's the praize(said in my best down-under)
Aurator - a few you forgot.....these are more localized ;- )
A Buxom of Betties
A Dropping of Dudes
A Pile-o-Manure.... ( hey wait....that's not one )
A Gangload of Drive-byers
A Gorge of Goldbugs ( grin )
A Slathering of Silicon ( B Hills )
A Slew of Surfers
..............I could go on............. ;- )
go plat~ ( ! )
Has everyone bought their Disney ( land...not John ) stock yet? It just split and is screaming for 100+ again........sell some gold and buy now.............. ( this is not a recommendation..........just polite conversation ) .............ohmy! buy a pile a the moon ( ! )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:35 - ID#373284)
lady_bug, Namaste' Gulp to ya...educate yourself manners?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:47 - ID#187109)
*ho hum*
I was on my way to the ( kitco ) forum and.........I bumped into a WhyTwoKays*chat* group.......hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......
Are the bugs 'hanging their hats' on this thing? Once this awareness or is it wishful thinking? ( hoping disaster will strike so people will start buying gold and the price will rise and they will be 'vindicated' ) ........hmmmmmmmmmmmm.......... ( wondering aloud ) .... prepare for the worst and hope for the best

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:47 - ID#421269)
@ Tolerant1

In Ladybugs defense, this market is enough to fray anyones nerves. Goldbugs need relief.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:51 - ID#187109)
Tol#1 and l_b
agulp ( andpuff ) to ya AND Namast
awaaaay.... ( $ )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:56 - ID#57232)
Gold Trends -- bearish if commodities drop.
Mike Stewart: Thanks for your rational comments. I suspect a really addicted gold bug is incapable of expecting gold equities to go down.
Incidentally, I have been following the composite commodities price index ( CRY0 ) , and the price of gold/gold stocks. What is interesting is that ever since 1980, the price of gold has been a leading indicator of inflationary trends, better than the CRY0. However, around or just before 1993, the trend shifted, and the CRY0 tends to lead gold bullion prices, as most clearly evidenced by the 1993 gold rally.
My guess is that this reflects the current negative attitude of the general majority toward gold as an investment option, and the relative preference for commodities. Right now the CRY0 is at 210 and dropping. When the CRY0 ( or other spot commodity price indices ) bottoms, gold is more likely to rally that it is now. Don't recall exactly, but JP is correct that 200 is nearly a 15-20 year bottom for the CRY0. If the CRY0 continues to drop well below 200 in the next few months, this will be very bad indeed for gold. On the other hand if CRY0 moves up in the next few months, that will be very good for gold.
I think the US will have its deflationary crisis and a depression fairly soon, but not this year. That is too soon -- we must go to DOW 10,000 first and to y2k first. Hence we probably will have a little gold rally with an upward bounce of the commodities price index in a few months, IMHO -- even without an unforeseen worldwide crisis of some kind.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:59 - ID#248170)
What is the definition of a perfect market ?
I think many would say that a market with a very tight bid/offer spread is a more perfect market but I am not so sure.
I wonder what the average price is for all the gold bought and sold in the world today.
I reckon it is quite a bit higher than US$300. I just bought 2.5 ounces for US$1,012. ( Thats US$404.8 / ounce ) Looks nice on my wrist !

G o G o l d

(Tue Jul 14 1998 10:59 - ID#373284)
EB, Namaste' A gulp and an extended puff back at ya...some of us do hold our
breath for reasons other than waiting for gold to make its move don't ya know. The release of smoke from the lungs here at Cuervo Central makes the updraft over the compound a no fly zone...also disrupts Big Brothers spying from space...paranoid...not me's...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:02 - ID#373284)
Isure, Namaste' relief...from what...historically low prices...I see this not as a time to
worry or complain, but rather a time to accumulate all the metals at very depressed prices. But you are correct...I should learn to be more tolerant...grin...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:04 - ID#320202)
me???? do you think I need some? ,gulp, sigh, namaste to you, from my island which is round

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:07 - ID#266105)

And to you from my island which is no man.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:09 - ID#258427)
from my island which is in the sky...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:10 - ID#373284)
the Coward Erect live on Y2K although he is priming everyone how wonderful
the IMF loan is to Russia...IT IS ON NOW...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:11 - ID#251166)
Is it just me or is silver acting funny ( funnily? ) this morning?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:13 - ID#248170)
From fantasy island

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:14 - ID#350194)
@LSteve @9:29
LSteve - I checked the site and as many of the little sections in it as I could in the last 20 minutes and I saw nothing wrong with it. These are just a small group of the U.S. military that have made their own website. They generally have a job to do and they are immersed in this vocation and are proud of their past history etc. The way you went on I was expecting to see the newest Hale BeBop Club.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:16 - ID#373284)
Lady_bug, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Let's put it this way,
if you need manners...I need a few million more years of evolution to catch up...gulp of tequila to ya...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:17 - ID#350179)
The White House view on Y2K
It should be on canoe in a half an hour

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:17 - ID#411440)
6:00 am this morning New York time, from 1.06% Forward rates have
risen to 4.65% Doesn't anybody want to short gold?

There have been very few occasions when 1 month lease rates have dropped
below 1%. The only catch is the interest muct be paid in gold.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:32 - ID#43185)
Silver has been extremely flat for quite some time now. Gold goes up, gold goes down, and silver hardly wiggles.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:33 - ID#250353)
Still lurking..

Reference Envy's post of 2304 last evening and the 'Ithaca Hours' used as local currency in Ithaca, NY. Probably not a bad idea though my immediate perception of such is severely tainted by memories from Ithaca in the 70's. Ithaca is a rather small city with two institutes of highter education: Cornell University and Ithaca College, the latter being my alma mater. I recall it being extremely liberal with communes, co-ops, group farms, hippy retreats, shaggy-headed socialists posing as professors, student 'occupations' of the CU administration building and all the rest of the usual trappings of liberalism of the times. One gut-level *required* course consisted of us sitting cross-legged in the lobby of the Performing
Arts building discussing our feelings about each other led by a, how shall I put this in a PC manner, less than masculinity-challenged professor. Only by the grace of God did I escape the clutches of that socialist enclave and turn out somewhat normally ( snort ) .

Anyway, if it came down to a choice between 'Ithaca Hours' and Bart's "real stuff", I would find the choice an easy one.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:37 - ID#421269)

Bgo is falling like a rock. For a mine thats got most of its gold hedged, must mean TROUBLE!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:40 - ID#219363)
Smart Money
I was browsing a site that has a "talk forum" for Amazon.Com stock and found this quote posted today-

} There seems to be a lot of "smart money" on the bid in amazon
} today. I don't think it is going lower. It might gain momentum

I guess you can find an optimist in any forum.

Btw, thanks for the info JT8D


(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:43 - ID#228128)
Cyclist: Did that two days begin today or yesterday?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:46 - ID#373284)
Not one media outlet covering the WJC Y2K news conference...NOT ONE...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:47 - ID#320202)
.........and a good golden day to all of you, I am off to the beach

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:47 - ID#250353)
You're welcome. Bbl.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:50 - ID#350179)
Yes they are: "Good Samaritan" legislation Hoooo Hoooo.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:53 - ID#26467)

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:53 - ID#147201)
JT8D re Cu etc
I really appreciated that post. I was there in 51 to take a preliminary AF test for flight school. It appeared that the wave of your comments was rising. After the tests, I left to go back to UVA and was never, at that time, so relieved. Because of scheduling,I thumbed about the last 1/3 of the way and met an AF nurse for a ride back to school. Boy, what a relief! Glad to see you made it out of those clutches. Charlie

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:55 - ID#373284)

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:57 - ID#316256)
To: Mooney
When I see a web site created by folks who fly black helicopters for the government and they are comparing themselves to one of the four horsemen in the book of revelations, I tend to think its a little crazy.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 11:59 - ID#373284)
news coverage? or do all the stories look like uniform press release materials?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:05 - ID#287129)
The boy who cries "Wolf, wolf..."
I wonder if there is a metaphoric lesson for investors in the story of the boy who cries "Wolf!"

Perhaps many on this forum have received newsletters such as "The Wall Street Underground" ( WSU ) and other such newsletters screaming that the "end of the bull market" was at hand. Thanks to the WSU and several other newsletters claiming that PM's were "on the verge of the greatest bull run ever" etc., etc., all my IRA funds that were in conventional stocks were liquidated back in 1996 and put into gold stocks... Personal funds were put into leveraged PM's... need I say more???

Since then, I cannot count the number of newsletters that have cried "Wolf, wolf..." or "Bear, bear..." about the DOW bubble. It is now interesting to me to note that some of the so-called "experts" who for several years kept promoting the start of a new "bull market" in PM's are now claiming that silver will drop down near $4.00 per ounce. WHY did these same "experts" persuade gullible people like me to buy silver at over $5.00 per ounce, only to see personal funds evaporate as quickly as the IRA gold stock funds evaporated?

Perhaps the very fact that many goldbugs have thrown in the towel might be indicative that gold is about to make a dramatic recovery.

Certainly there are others on this newsgroup who also prematurely got out of the DOW and missed out on the two best years ever. Yet I remain personally convinced that it would be EXTREMELY dangerous to go heavily back into the DOW at this time. The PE ratios are so unrealistic that I'm absolutely astonished that alleged investment experts remain so unwilling to consider the danger signals in today's super-inflated stock prices.

I believe that the time will soon come when some expert makes a CREDIBLE statement that the DOW is about to crash, and/or PM's are about to skyrocket...and it is quite likely that NEITHER the DOWmaniacs NOR the bleeding goldbugs will believe it. Even when the signs are evident that the DOW bear is coming out of hibernation, and/or the gold bull is ready to charge, the response may remind us all of the boy who cried "Wolf" once too often. If that happens, only a few will win...while the rest end up losing.

If we are among the winners, let's have compassion on the losers. If we are among the losers ( as many of us goldbugs currently are ) , then perhaps we'd better pray.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:05 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum re. SILVER
Just learned some biggies covering short position even as technicals show buy left and right. Switching buckets? Stochastics say long now, but too many technicians these days; already factored. Silver like a deer in the headlights of a semi: She's either gonna jump and dash far and fast, or eat tread.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:06 - ID#253153)
It will take only one formal default (say Pakistan) to start formal strings of defaults
It will much easier for another under developed country to announce a reneg of its external debts. A few years ago I was visiting Kenya in Africa and was watching the Zebra's crossing a river infested with Crocodiles. After the first Zebra started crossing the river, the rest of the herd plunged
into the river and started swimming.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:07 - ID#220325)
Thank you for the Y2K Microsoft site. This is the way to build information. Have a great day.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:13 - ID#401460)
July 14, 1998
12:02PM New York Tim Timezone Equivalents

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:19 - ID#347235)
Would you pls repost the info on the site earlier? I couldnt find it @0929
or was it LAST NIGHT @ 2139? Thanks

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:19 - ID#340459)
@Skip, I have synonymous sentiment with your psot and similiar circumstance

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:20 - ID#340459)
@Bart - Thanks for bringing the quotes back up

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:20 - ID#174239)
Skip: Gold & Stock "wolf"
In just the past few months some experts have predicted a large impending correction in stock prices, and others say we are in a new era of unlimited growth. If you ask 10 well respected economists with proven track records you will get 10 different theories. One will be right, and that economist will add one more correct prediction to his list of accomplishments.

As I was telling Rnoble_A yeasterday, I belive in diversifing to make decent gains while managing risk. Sure, the fastest way for somone to get rich is to put all thier money in the right stock or commodity at the right time. This is also the fastest way to loose it all if ones timing isn't right.

If you don't belive me, ask Warren Buffet what his stragey was to become the second richest man in the world.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:27 - ID#373284)
MM, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
They keep referring to it as the "so-called" millenium problem...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:30 - ID#373284)
Just caught CNBC coverage of the Y2K press conference and the Coward Erect's a word...both can be summed up as a joke...plain and simple...I guess Y2K will be just another "glitch." NOT!!!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:40 - ID#252150)
Skip@Fleecing the lambs--Are you serious when you ask:
WHY did these same "experts" persuade gullible people like me to buy silver at over
$5.00 per ounce, only to see personal funds evaporate as quickly as the IRA gold
stock funds evaporated?

Let me put it this way Skip. It was'nt an act of altruism.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:48 - ID#350179)
Not a news link.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:50 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmm...I kinda like the opportunity I see in metal stocks. uh huh, I could
care less if I get in on the absolute bottom. Certain mining shares look very attractive to me...and I am buying oodles of them...OROP, CFB, FSR, TNX, SSRIF, GEO to name some...

Patience is a virtue...these prices are a God send......

Gulping, puffing and buying with both hands and loving it...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:50 - ID#286253)
@ rhody -- where do you get your (real-time) lease rate numbers from?

Your posts on this matter are helpful. Thanks. SamA.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:51 - ID#316256)
To: Retired Soldier
Try this URL

Then click "Night Stalkers"

Check out the other links too.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 12:56 - ID#287186)
When I see Gold vary by a few US$ and Silver by a dime
I must remind myself that a dime move in Silver
is equivalent to a five dollar move in Gold.
Silver has been more volatile than Gold.
Gold is pinched between the fingers of the manipulators.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:07 - ID#347235)
Thanks, nothing sinister about these guys, just a fraternal group of aviators that flew under special forces command, similar to the 1st Cavalry Association of which I am a member or the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment Association of which I am also a member all or most Large military units ( Regiments or Larger have an organization of active and former members who like to keep in touch and talk about old times. None of us are planning the overthrow of the gummint.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:10 - ID#426220)
Redemption -- A Matter of Justice by Dr Paul Hein

In referring to the time when money was sound, the premise of Money Expert, Dr. Hein, is quite simple: " Paper was never the money, and gold and silver were not "backing" for anything. They were money in and of themselves--"

He contends "A Monetary Realist does not want money that is "backed." If it is actual money, it does not need backing; and if it is not, backing is a sham."

Money doesn't need backing, but neither do bank notes. They need redeemability, on demand, in full. Anything less is a con game, even with government's full faith and credit behind it.

Dr Hein's comments ring with logic and clarrity in his view of what out money system should be to reflect monetary reality. His full report at following URL. He logically asserts Uncle Sam's guarantee of the dollar isn't worth the "paper" its printed on!

It is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the world "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet finder:

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:22 - ID#246224)
Digital Wealth 100011010001011110100101100101100101011110110110100001
Widely reported that non-government debt/bonds are at 3x government level + government debt/bonds + M3 money accounts = $US 29,000,000,000,000.

Total physical cash held in US bank vaults = $US 35,000,000,000.

Ratio of physical cash to debt instruments ( which may be sold and converted to physical cash ) ; $US ( DIGITAL ) 828.57 to $US ( CASH ) 1.00.

Digital wealth = 99.85% of all accounts.
Physical cash = 00.15% of all accounts.

Once cash is exhausted where will the other 99.70% of that digital wealth go???

Cash/debt is a 1 for 1 exchange more or less. So demand for tangible replacement for digital account $'s will not be met by cash. The only other currency that is available here outside of the 'system' is gold/silver.

Do you have cash and PM's? Now??

Avoid the rush.

"A penny for a quart of wheat, and two quarts of barley for a penny; but do not touch the oil or the wine." Book of Revelation

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:23 - ID#28586)
some (ahem) thoughts....
The more and more I think about Clinton, Rubin, Greenspan & their cronies, and the blatant manipulation of the price of precious metals via manipulation of public opinion, manipulation of the PPI and CPI, the linkage of Swiss gold with Nazi atrocities ( let us ignore US atrocities against our own Native Americans ) , the linkage of gold & silver mining with environmental damage, the incessant shrill denigaration of precious metals by the flatulently sincere reporters of CNBC, Wall Street Week...

... I come to the conclusion that if gold & silver DO rise - it will mean one thing: all Hell has broken loose, because the vast cabal is Hell-bent on there *never* again being *ANY* competitor with their slavery-based money.

Think about it: if they can continue to turn people's minds away from honest consideration of *real* inflation, and focus them on the illusory rise of wealth in the sotck markets -- I say illusory because it can never be realized en masse,go ahead, baby boomers, yuppies, all of you try and get your money out at the same time -- then they really can carry this scam off forver.

Except, to date, History indicates the conartists, the Ponzi-schemers, the confidence men, the politicians have ultimately been detected.

We heard the phrase "the End of History" a few years back when the Cold War ended ... I wonder if the "the End of History" realy means the complete and total control of the Press, media, Hollywood, government data ... makes you want to re-read Orwell's "1984" once again.

If they can convince everyone that "numbers" out of thin air are money, can there be any hope?

I,for one,refuse to give in to their deception. I believe there will be a reckoning.

Spud, comments invited.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:28 - ID#43460)
Interesting short term volume change today for SWC

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:31 - ID#57232)
Loan Defaults
JP: I agree with you that it may not take much to cause a series of defaults if one country such as Pakistan starts the ball rolling. The Rothschild Credistaten Bank in Austria was thought to trigger the worldwide banking crisis in 1932 ( I'm not sure of precise date ) . However, this was several years after the US market crash. Years may be translated into months in our modern era, but I do not think we are ready for a worldwide banking crisis this summer.
I think you are right that a major deflationary episode will devastate the US, but only in a manner similar to the 1929 era. The US markets will be the last to fall, and that is not yet, IMHO. Perhaps 1999, y2k, or 2010-2015 when the baby boomers in the US stop spending and start looking for their ( then ) nonexistent social security funds. Gold will certainly rise by 2010-2015, as the FED will probably have to inflate the dollar big time to cover all of those missing entitlements ( and 20 trillion of federal debt coming due ) .
My point is that the inflation/deflation pattern is complex, and the US FED is usually able to get M2 going again after it starts to fall during a recession. But each time they do so it will become harder and harder to get the economic engine going again, even with rocket fuel. One day the rocket fuel approach will not work and we will have a depression.
So, IMHO, we are probably not at the pre-depression stage in the US this year, unless we have a major unforseen external shock. That is why I think that we will have a minor gold rally over the next few months, despite the deflationary trends. The only real threat to gold right now is a major non-US currency meltdown with a gold firesale like the SEAsia event last October.
By the way, did you see my comments about CRY0 and gold bullion prices? Old Gold is right that traditionally -- after 1980, gold bullion prices did lead the commodity price indices, and predict inflation. However, some time near 1993, gold lost its luster, and the CRY0 became a better leading indicator than gold bullion. So, currently you are right. The commodity price index is currently a better leading indicator than gold.
Now, if gold rises significantly while the CRY0 is dropping and the US dollar rising, or gold holds its own -- that is a bullish sign.
Personally, I think short term gold investing only is best, with most of your powder dry until we see clear evidence of a gold bull market. Right now we are still sitting on the fence.
Come to think of it, a major rise in anxiety level regarding y2k could cause a world wide bull market in gold all by its lonesome.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:34 - ID#43460)
Rangy volume is drying up these last few weeks

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:37 - ID#286230)
Oh Oh YK2 test passed--Gold down?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:38 - ID#174239)
Allen: Debt and assets
How much of that debt is secured? Although the bank only has so much physical cash, secured loans represent assets since the bank will get them if the debtor stops making payments.

If you look at any US denomination bill you will see, in a simple black font, the words "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private" printed somewhere on the left front. If there were no debt, there would be no physical cash. No one would owe anyone anything that they need a $1 to represent.

In reality what would happen if there was a sort of Day of Reconing, where everyone had to pay off all thier debt, including giving up thier assets to do so. I imagine that there would be millions of hungry nude people and thousands of people with lots of stuff they don't need.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:43 - ID#242325)
Dow up 130 points so far today, but Russell 2000 hardly up at all.

On a more encouraging note FDPMX up 4% at 1:00 PM -- twice the XAU and triple the TGL Something in their portfolio must have taken off like a rocket.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:46 - ID#43460)
Stock Market News

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:52 - ID#298259)
OLD GOLD...maybe MDG...
Regarding holds MERIDIAN GOLD up 40% today.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 13:59 - ID#411440)
@ sam: To find the Gold Lease rates: Go to the Kitco Inc- Near Live
Market Update page, ( where you click on this GROUP DISCUSSION hot link )
and scroll down to the 24 hour charts for gold and silver quotes.
Just below this is the hot link for 'Gold and Silver Lease Rates'

I keep records from day to day. There are historical records for
lease rates below on this same web page which go back to about 1993.

Gold is up about $1.80 today with lease rates at 1% This indicates
minimal shorting activity using borrowed gold. As the demand to borrow
gold goes up, so do lease rates. so the one month lease rates are worth
watching to anticipate speculative shorting of gold.

1.30 is low and 1% is extremely low which is what the range has been over the last 2 to 3 weeks. At 1%, few speculators are borrowing gold to
sell it short. With no shorting, gold rises. WITH NO SHORTING GOLD RISES! This entire gold bear is the product of CB gold leasing and
short selling! I suspect, without the leasing, we would have $400
gold right now.

The question arises, why aren't the speculators borrowing gold to sell
it short right now, at only 1%. ANSWER: Gold is so close to its bottom at 280, that there is no room to short it to. They wait until gold is
up to 295 to 300 and then short it back down to 285-290.

A shorting cycle then nets them 3.5% plus the forward rate of 4.65% for
a grand total of 8.15% in 3 months. Works great unless the POG rises.
Then its shallow creek and no paddle time.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:01 - ID#410198)
Anyone had this experiance,got a call this morning from a guy who said he went to his bank to pull
out 10 grand,they said sorry you have to have an appointment...........

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:06 - ID#411440)
@ robnoel: This is normal. For large withdawls, a bank requires
at least a days notice to deliver funds for a large withdrawl.
( Makes you wonder why they don't require a days notice for a
large deposit!!! )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:06 - ID#267276)
Over a year ago I watched Lyndon Larouche give a talk on cable T.V. about the upcoming currency crises, he actually said that it would happen in october of 98 and it was only feb, when he called it. As it proved out that he was right on the money before I heard anyone else mention that such a thing could happen. He also said that "THE OLIGARCHY OF THE WORLD IS GRADUALLY AND SYSTEMATICALLY ACCUMULATING ALL THE NATURAL RESOURSES AT LOW PRICES". It appears to me that the method is just the opposite the the Hunt bros. tried. The public is being romanced into believing in buying hyped up stocks that own very little in real things. Yahoo, and others can be replaced by a new idea or better competition but you cant replace oil in the ground or massive infrastructure or wheat or gold or GE with hype.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:07 - ID#210253)
Old Gold:

Could be [Holy!!] CAU....Up 33%

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:08 - ID#410198)
Selby...they had a choice tell the truth or kill thier golden goose I guess the goose won the vote..
what a surprise

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:11 - ID#368244)
@ Robnoel

Whats an MS-63 1895-S Morgan worth these days?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:15 - ID#368244)
10 Grand

If my bank could not come up with 10 Grand at the window , I would find a new bank. OK!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:15 - ID#212197)
@Spud Master (some (ahem) thoughts) (13:23)
I enjoyed reading your post.
Don't miss the artice from Prof. Robert Mundell to which SDRer pointed yesterday.

Thinking about the behaviour of gold and silver recently I also became aware of these comp-letely obvious manipulations which go on in these markets, especially with gold. Silver still has the advantage over gold that it is much more a commodity in character. It is left alone by the CBs. The strong hand cannot be denied. But gold acts completely independent of any supply/demand situation. Silver still follows supply/demand laws. That's why guru economist Butler thinks it will go up in the very near future. He concludes this from the extremely, historically low COMEX warehouse levels.

About one week ago I had the pleasure to meet a relatively young hot-shot career economist at a private party. He works for Rubin. Wgen I discussed gold with him he couldn't hide his rage against this metal. He completely denied gold's importance for the global financial markets and said quite aggressively: "It's only good for jewelry". There was no relaxed consideration, nothing calm about what he said and the way he said it. My remaining impression is, that he talked like a communist apparatschik. I remember from street discussions which I had experienced in Berlin two decades ago, that those who belonged to communist organizations would also discuss in such a nervous way, always completely afraid of being confronted with facts and reality. Bottomline: he was afraid of gold.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:16 - ID#289357)
I stumbled across this curious website yesterday.....perhaps one of the shorts?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:16 - ID#432112)
Questions...Where are all the U.S. Dollars Flooding the market going?
What happens as foreign CB's exchange $ reserves for Euro reserves? How many $'s are out there?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:19 - ID#432157)
Someone posted a URL that had free software that would test your PC for year 2000 compliance or workability. Could you post it again.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:21 - ID#207145)
Taiwan selling US bonds?
Well, well. Guess the're buying EUROS.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:26 - ID#207145)
Taiwan selling Treasuries
Who could blame them?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:31 - ID#410198)
Isure.... current grey sheet bid/ask....$2775.00...$ for banks one guy asks for 10K
they say no,what happens if 10 guys walk and ask for a grand?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:47 - ID#57232)
blooper: It was not too long ago that they were convinced by the US not to sell treasuries and buy gold. As you say, why should they believe the US commitment anymore to their security?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:50 - ID#286284)
@Silverbaron re "Looking for physical" Brokerage Co.

Yes - this is a great example of a cog in the lets-go-short-gold machinery. "Sophisticated trading models" -- I love it. Sell gold, invest in a "model."

But they need the physical, eh? The grease that makes the wheels go 'round. This is getting tougher and tougher to find ( notwithstanding the current lease rates. ) I know of a mining company that was offered fix + fifty cents for their production by a major bullion dealer ( but only if the Co. agreed to a long-term contract. ) What's fifty cents when you can sell the stuff and make 5% on you rmoney? Like stealing candy from a baby. If only there more of that physical.....


(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:52 - ID#421269)
@ Robnoel

It's sad to say but, 90% would have to make 3 withdrawals on their credit card. It' hard to get $1000 out of your stock account, and besides, the bank does't make it's 5%.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:55 - ID#57232)
DOW 10,000 here we come
All: Just a matter of time. Dropping commodity prices, and dropping bond yields just make the markets even more bullish. Just as Oldman says, it will take alot to stop this bull market. WJC's fortunes and the market fortunes are tied together.
If gold stocks rally in the face of bearish commodity price indices, that is bullish for gold, too. My guess is that a major gold rally will only begin after commodities bottom. We may have a minigold rally only for now -- next few months, perhaps. Keep your powder dry.
Major US economic deflation comes later.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 14:57 - ID#334219)
"On a more encouraging note FDPMX up 4% at 1:00 PM -- twice the XAU and triple the TGL Something in their portfolio must have taken off like a rocket.""

----- Meridian Gold possibly!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:12 - ID#207145)
Trent Lot wants to investigate Clinton's China doings. I just heard part of the report.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:13 - ID#207145)
Lott says he has evidence
Of Clinton's transfer of tech. to Chinks.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:14 - ID#350179)
Clinton cites `gaping holes' in preparing for Year 2000 glitch

(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:21 - ID#246224)
J regarding secured loans
US Gov bonded debt approx $US 5.75 Trillion.

Other US States, County, Municipality and Corporate bonded debt 3 times this figure approx $US 17.25 Trillion.

US M3 type money accounts ( liquid cashable ) $US 5.6 Trillion.

Total Bonded debt + M3 accounts = $US 28.6 Trillion.

This is not including personal IOU's such as credit cards, etc.


My point being that these bonds are considered part of the money structure and are salable at a slight premium or penalty on capital based on current interest rates vis a vis the rate and duration of the notes themselves. The huge size of this 'digital wealth' dwarfs ( sorry Alberich! ) the amount of physical cash that is available to 'cash out' of these. The bonds are government bonds or corporate bonds so we are not talking about a bond based on some asset other then the "full faith and security" of the government or corporation. ( In other words 'its good until it suits us to not honor it. )

Imagine a grandma who has money in the bank ( M3 ) and US Gov Bonds as her portfolio. She hears that Y2K could smoke her if she doesn't get into some physical, real tangible cash ( she remembers the 'banking holidays' of the 1930's ) . She asks herself the question, "Am I being played for a sucker here?". She moves 90% of her cash and 50% on her bonds into cash out of the bank.

Let's say our grandma has $US 75,000 total of which 10% was in a savings account, 20% was in CD's, and the rest were in long bonds. She pulls $US 20,000 out of savings and CD's and $US 26,500 out of the US Gov Bonds for a total of $US 46,500. She takes the cash and puts it in places that only those who have been through the bad times really know ( not the matress! ) .

How many grandma's of this type could the $US 35 billion be apportioned? Answer: slightly over 750,000. How many of these grandma's will not talk to their closest friends about their concerns?


If 0.15% of the M3 or Bond based accounts went for cash then there would be NO CASH.

Wrath and rage will destroy entire nations when this happens.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:29 - ID#377196)
Spud Master -your 13.23
I have always wondered since studing Rome in 6th grade why great
powers fall. Well, we don't have to wonder do we. We have lived
thru the rise and fall of a once great Nation in all of a life time.
The bankers it would seem are to root cause and everything else
follows. It has been written that once the people learn that they
can vote themselves something for nothing from the treasury they will
bring about the downfall. But I don't see it that way any longer.

What you said about the gold/currency manipulations by Rubin,Greenspan,
etc. etc. are all true. But the real damage started with RR. You
remember him: the "great conservative" who bankrupted the country?
Once polititians learn that they can do anything they want and they
can rewrite history, this is what brings the end. Yes, people like a
free lunch but they would understand if told the truth. And we are
NEVER told the truth. We are not told the truth because the powers that
be are able to profit from them and the people do nothing. The big
Republican victory in Congress, what happened to that? NOthing.

I was once a Republican, then RR made me a Democrate and BC has made
me a non-believer in govt. Period. What they have done to our money
will forever damn them in my eyes forever. The people NEVER asked for
what they have given us. They will revolt! And we will all lose.
It is not going to be pretty when people find that what they thought
was valuable is no longer.

We are not unlike the Russians. The Communists paid the workers
money but there was nothing to buy in the stores so the people saved
their money and when the wall fell down they thought that soon they
would have goods to buy. But look what happened. Bang. Overnight the
currency lost 87% of its value. In a capitalist system like ours
suddenly the money in the financials won't be worth anything because
the balloon will burst and there will be no buyers. Or the debts will
get so big that everything emplodes. BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO ANNOUNCE
And you will not be able to then do anything. The dollar will be devalued
and the banks closed. The government will then try and survive ANYWAY
it can and in order to do so it will have to steal as much money as it
can to meet its obligations. Steal or print. Same thing.

When gold goes up all will not be well and I think it will go up
fast. I expect this whole debacle to happen before Y2K. The goverment
must gain control before it loses control. Look for something big to
happen before BC leaves office.

What do others think?

Thanks, GD

What do others think?

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 14 1998 15:45 - ID#261322)
Fall of Empire
Well, GD, it sounds a tad pessimistic, but not too far from the truth. Don't blame you one bit for losing faith entirely in governments. They mismanage money well, I'll give them that. I hope it's not as drastic as you predict, but I'm in your camp on the future, the US$ is going to tumble, and gold will move up very quickly. After the last year and a half, the gold movement up is all I really care about!!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:02 - ID#246224)
Economies in the early 1900's ... (and the sucker's bet)
all used cash. The early use of credit involved only a small portion of the public. Most people were not buying on credit nor were they investing via margin accounts in the stock markets. They used cash. Checking was not considered normal.

When the government decided to increase the money supply they printed legal tender notes. The economy was not very large by today's standards. So the technical ability to print enough notes to match the size of the cash transaction economy was not a problem.

Germany's inflation after WWI was due to printing physical cash so that the government could clear its reparation payments. This cash was flushed back into the national economy by extra-national groups who saw the problem of retaining bales of Reichmarks. They bought German goods which were exported out of Germany. The subsequent surge in cash supply overwhelmed the ability of the German economy to produce and so prices spiraled higher and higher as this over abundant cash supply chased the few goods which were being produced. Hyperinflation was assured when the public began to adapt to inflation by building in an inflation factor into pricing.

We now have a cashless society whose foundation and timbers will be leveled by an earthquake of worldwide proportions. It will be both completely predictable and silent. Though an overabundance of 'digital wealth' making its way back to America would have ignited inflation in the 'digital price structure' in the past, now the smart money will try to exit this 'digital system' because it may very well fail. There are two problems which confront those who wish to exit: 1 ) not enough cash to exchange for the 'digital wealth' and 2 ) government restrictions on exiting the system.

How much are you willing to pay for a house that is on fire???

If you were trapped in a burning house and someone offered to switch rooms with you for x $'s, would you do it??

How much would you pay to be allowed out of the burning house??

If you only had 'money' that was trapped inside the burning house to trade for your deliverance, who ( on the outside ) would want to receive that soon to be smoke 'money' in exchange for your escape??

A sucker's bet usually goes thusly: "Give me $10. If you are right then I will give you your money back. If you are wrong, then I keep your money." There is no risk to the one holding the money and given even odds he will on average win $5 for every bet placed with him. You on the other hand will on average lose $5 for every bet placed ( and never gain a thing ) .

This is what we are being asked by all organizations which are holding some form of wealth in our name in an account. What do they put on the line? Nothing. They have no "I will pay you 'X' amount over and above returning your money if I am wrong" clause.

Think about this for a few minutes, please. If they are right then your money will, more or less, be returnable to you ( no gain ) . If they are wrong then you may lose everything. You are risking the loss of everything for what gain??? None. This is the sucker's bet and you are playing it on the wrong side.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:09 - ID#233199)
@ ALBERICH__A Re: Your 14:15 -- Thank you
Thank you

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:21 - ID#57232)
Trent Lott -- He told his investigative people not to vacation this summer.
blooper: The trail of evidence has to end at the White House and the President, not Ron Brown who is conveniently deceased. I have yet to see anything stick on the president, who makes Ronald Reagan look sticky.
By the way, I'd rather you stuck to using 'Chinese' rather than other terms. Some of my relatives are Chinese. The problem is not the Chinese people, it is the Chinese government. And our current occupant of the White House, who thinks anything is for sale, even military secrets. I wonder --- what is not for sale? I still burn when I remember that news article about the US military having to come up with a new GPS system because the Chinese were given the access codes. Perhaps there is a military only one, but the article implied otherwise. They got other coding technology as well. And MIRV technology transfer from passing to China the technology to launch multiple communications satellites in one launch vehicle. Tony Snows articles say it all.
Think of all those military scientists who now have to work overtime to make our military secure again. We had this problem during the cold war, but that was mostly due to Russian espionage. Now we practially give it away -- no spies needed -- just some politicial party donations. Don't need to train spies anymore.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:39 - ID#57232)
Fiat Currency deception: It is addictive to our leaders.
Spud Master: There is nothing new about the denounciation of gold. The British foolishly did it before us in an attempt to maintain their world-wide empire. Private British citizens were not allowed to own gold for a time as well. The Americans denounced gold in the 60's and 70's, with the same fervence as now, even to the point of foolishness where we depleted our rainy day Gold stores in Fort Knox. Those gold sales accomplished nothing constructive.
Gold will recover its luster again, as it has many times before. I don't expect a total collapse of the US dollar any time soon, just because of this. But, I do agree that when our final day of reconing comes it will be very hard. But not because of out attitude toward gold or the US dollar. It will be because of our attitude toward debt and credit.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:46 - ID#238422)
JTF, info specially for you...
I talked to my friend in Moscow today, and he shared
his concern on the situation in Russia, and mostly
of political nature. He is getting worried more and more.
Time for us to start worring too...Let's do it...

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:49 - ID#377196)
Allen (USA)
To my way of thinking how can there be a suckers bet with
fiat money. The loans are created out of nothing, backed by nothing and
represent nothing. Something is created on a balance sheet and then
removed from a balance sheet. It is all a game of musical chairs with
paper money ie. nothing of value. Only the participants give it value.

I think it is when other countries "refuse the loan" that trouble
starts. Look how these loans are forced on other countries. Where does
the new loan go? back to the origional bank that made a loan in the
first place. It is when this process stops that the debt default
senario begins.....

I know we read in the paper that Russia, Asia want loans but these
are just one set of bankers paying off another set of bankers, so it
is really the US forcing the IMF etc. to make the loans. That keeps
the illusion going that the $ is in demand when this is not really
true. It gives the dollar "value" which it really does not have.

Thanks, GD

It is all a "game" which the average person will lose.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:51 - ID#242300)

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:54 - ID#57232)
Thanks --
Oris: I think the time is near too. I think it depends on the Russian people who are just like us, and on the Russian military. I hope there are some honest leaders in the Russian military who can speak out and organize without getting assassinated by the gangster types who have control of the Russian government. I sincerely hope that Russia is not too far gone for a Military takeover if necessary, and some cleansing of the infection. I hope it is done by the right people when this happens. It will be hard for outsiders to have much input at this point. Reminds me of the Fatima prophesies about Russia -- not good. My heart goes out to the Russian people who will have to experience further ordeals, regardless.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:55 - ID#433172)
Gold dancer
Something has alawys happenend. Positive developments occur over time and sneak up on us generation to generation. Negative developments often occur as a shock, in our individual lives and our collective life.
So prepare for a shock, make those reasonable preparations for your continued comfort and security, we don't need to be carried away but reasonable precautions are in order at any time or clime.
For myself, I don't stand to lose anything important no matter what the markets do. I'm well prepared for any eventuality. I am uneasy over what is happening to the USA, my children and grand children are going to have a tougher row to hoe and it wasn't all that easy for me. I can't shake a sense of failure ( my wife interrupts giving me kisses and telling me there is work to be done ) . Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:55 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.55. This is a new high. The 50 day moving average is 30.47. Here is some interesting information about the Dow/Gold Ratio that may have some predictive value. During the 1929 stock run-up the Dow/Gold Ratio reached its peak at a time when it was 12.2% above its 233 day moving average. During the 1966 run-up the same peak achieved 8.2% above the 233 day M/A. In 1987 the max was 6.7% above. Today at the close we were 13.1% above the 233M/A

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:58 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA)...Well put. Your 13:22 today is much more eloquent and succinct than my 12:05 on the 10th
Required reading for all. Sharefin, thanks for the compliment. Auric, thanks for the Latvian site.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 16:58 - ID#242300)
The 20 billon dollar IMF bail out of Russia is a political prop. The working people in Russia won't see a dime of the money. American interest is solely a security matter. We don't want Russia to break up into sub-goverments with nucular capabilities.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:01 - ID#288295)
Allen (USA)

And the USG liabilities don't stop at secured loans....don't forget all those pseudo-corporations like Sallie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and other contingent liabilities like FDIC, FSLIC, and on and on. The total is probably unimaginably big.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:03 - ID#212323)
Excellent! That's the kind of technical information that reveals the underlying "gut feeling" that is truly responsible for major moves in a market. Shows how relatively out of kilter the reality is, and people can generally sense it. Standard TA only shows the speculators a microscopic view of the subject. I say again, EXCELLENT!!!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:04 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .234. The 50 day moving average is .253. My database contains 32 occasions where the XAU closed in the 68.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #24. The #1 ranking was on June 12, 1986, with a gold price of $346.70, an XAU of 68.19, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .197

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:09 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.18. The 50 day moving average is 54.76

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:09 - ID#20748)
Third Russian Revolution
may happen within the next few weeks.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:11 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $295.00; spot silver $5.39; XAU 74.74

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:11 - ID#252150)
Summertime & the living is supposed to be easy, but I've noticed the tenor of
the posts here getting increasingly pessimistic. I hate to think what the cold, gloomy autumn weather will elicit.

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:14 - ID#28586)
@Allen, Hyperinflation, and the Stock Market...
Like the fawning servants of The Emperor's New Clothes, we all know the stock market IS the evidence of hyperinflation in America.

Wake up world. Hyperinflation. It's here already.

The second ... the instant people should begin attempt to withdraw their "winnings" from the stock market, it explodes.

Consequently: this endless "dance of death" ever upwards in the Dow Jones average. Answer me, you out there: can 35 million baby-boomers/yuppies ALL withdraw their vast stock wealth? Realize it in tangible things?

HA! You know it, and I know: the game is over before the year 2010, when boomers reach 65, their retirement.

In fact it will be over much sooner, by 2000 most likely, as early retirement, boomers shifting stock money to bonds, etc. occurs.

What we are going to see is the total destruction & destitution of the middle class in America; this is what those bankers in New York, Boston, Washington have dreamed of for years: a handful of masters and legions of government dependant slaves.

I fully expect martial law here, cleverly engineered, with a shocked, demoralized morass of former middle-classites clamoring for it, with Bill "William III" Clinton modestly turning down the title of dictator -- no more than three times.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:28 - ID#252391)
BOT this insanity
Dow 10,000 before Gold 315

Given the break out to new highs on the DOW, the TA in me said ignore the fundlementals go with the trend; reversed sales of yesterday.

Donald, appreciate the historical comparisions re Gold /the Dow, and the 233 moving average of that ratio. All time highs,uh.?
Suppose there are fundlemental reasons for that - like earnings and inflation ( deflation ) and the strenght of the dollar. There is nothing in the extremn that says the trend has changed, yet, just a historic extremn which looks to go to a further extremns in the days ahead.

The crowd doesn't hear that the market is too high. Cash going into stocks. The best thing that can be said about that is should all those gains ever I mean ever go into gold and gold related derivatives we'll see a rally that'll make the internet stocks' rally look small change in comparison. Operative word is if ever. I dop have a limited life time.

DOW 10,000 before gold 315.

One of the keys keeping gold up is the fact that the DOW suggests we're not going into a depression.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:33 - ID#212323)
Returned from Boulder CO with certain serenity. ...had time for a climb.
Nice to see Canyon Resources shareholders returning to reality ( up 33% today ) . DOW chasers are on borrowed time, but I cannot estimate the length of the fuse...they are definately NOT in touch with reality. Victims of the two second sound-bites on financial news reports "...and XXX Corp ended UP two and a quarter on 2nd Quarter earnings which beat Wall Street analysts expectations..." These expectations are being set intentionally low, folks. Don't worry about whether the bar is cleared, look at the performance. Stepping over a broom handle does not an olympic high-jumper make.

While in Colorado an associate, who has no knowlege of my personal slant toward gold, said a remarkable thing. Remarkable in that I've always viewed him as a good, typical representative of the citizen-at-large. Definately NOT a goldbug. He was telling a small group about a training class he was organizing in the mid-west, and that although the cost is typically $900 per person, his company would cover the instructor's fees such that anyone interested in attending would not be charged. Then he suggested that he personally would accept $900 donations in small unmarked bills. That's when I chimed in, "Or how about three ounces of gold, George?" To which he replied, "You know...I'd settle for two."

That is what it's all about.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:34 - ID#242300)
Reality check
Dow sets record today closing at 9254.54. Here's why: Johnson & Johnson sold alot of drugs last quarter and J.P. Morgan along with a host of other banks made profits from skyrocketing personal debt. Heck, if Japan gets a loan and recovers and Russia gets a loan and recovers, then it only makes sense to refinanced ourselves a summer rally. Only in America can the world largest car manufacturer GM post record losses and the stock market post record profits. Something is seriously, seriously wrong here my freinds.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:34 - ID#26793)
@NJ; PEI post dated July 10th. This dated July 7th???????

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:37 - ID#57232)
Dow 10,000
jims: Probably right, but a Russian revolution that does not go well would push up the US dollar and gold together. Flight to safety could push up the US markets even more. All those panicked Europeans worried about their unstable Russian neighbors. They don't seem panicked yet.
We could be nearing the final approach if the US dollar shoots up before y2k. Setting the stage for a world wide fall later. Probably depends on how quickly Russia falls into turmoil. I find things usually happen alot slower that we think they will -- we gold bug types tend to compress the temporal sequence of events. All things in their time. Keep your powder dry, and wait for the whites in their eyes before you commit yourself. Too many false alarms over the last two years.

Dave in CO
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:41 - ID#229103)
@robnoel 14:01
I believe $10K triggers a report to the IRS as if it's any of their business. But he might try some smaller amounts.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:49 - ID#26793)
You are right. It can go higher. My post was meant to show that it is now at an historical extreme.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:49 - ID#212323)
The tables are turning...
A co-worker stopped by, very aggitated. Our company's retirement plan quarterly statements were delivered and the stocks funds took a beating. The Growth fund was down over 7%, the stock/bond Balanced fund was down 2%, and the Aggressive fund was down over 4%--all for just the QUARTER.
The only stock based fund that was up was the Index fund, up over 3%. The market is going down folks. Only the index is going up because it is highly visible and viewed in a twisted sense as a flight to safety. This will probable continue for a while as the speculative stocks are finally dumped before it's too late and people shift into Index tracking mutual funds. Who can guess how long that will last? I do not worry about a lost opportunity on the DOW, because it is only an opportunity in HINDSIGHT. From a present and future perspective, money put into the DOW today is a highly speculative gamble, not a flight to safety or an opportunity.

Gold at these prices is an opportunity. Own it outright. It will preserve your wealth into the dark ( uncertain ) side of Y2K. Cash is something you'll want too, 'cause lots of people still feel it is worth something. No sense spending your gold if you don't have to. It is the currency of last resort, don't you know.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:53 - ID#288295)
The Islamic Dinar

I had not visited the Islamic Mint website
for a while - but now is completely different
than before. These people are making
progress, it seems.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:55 - ID#288295)
Trying again

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:56 - ID#295111)
Dow 10,000 and POG
I reason that the increase in weatlh generated by this US stock market frenzy must eventually push up the POG. Investors will become wealthier as the Dow reaches 10,000 such that buying gold will not be seen as expensive to them as it was before. To me the POG is incredibly cheap right now!'s the fools invested in bonds and equities I'm refering to.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 14 1998 17:59 - ID#295111)
@Allen at 13:22
Allen, is that the NUMBER OF THE BEAST???

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:00 - ID#253153)
Opinions are many , but I only listen to what the markets say
So what did the markets say today ?
1.The Dow recorded new high at 9245.54.
2. The Transport index failed by a wide margin to confirm with a new high. This is a major danger signal. Unless the Transport index is able to confirm for an all out clear signal ahead, this market will decline soon.
3. The advance/ decline line failed to confirm a new Dow high by a wide margin.
4. The new high's/ low's ratio failed to confirm.
5. Gold held well and closed at 293. The XAU held well.
6. The SPX , Nasdaq and American exchane recorded new high's.
7. The long bond yield rose to 6.71%.
8. Overall, we had a mixed picture. I repeat, the Transport MUST confirm the Dow break out on the upside, otherwise, the day of reckoning has arrived.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
Charlie seeds the creek with gold so the kids will find it when they pan. (not our Chas0

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:07 - ID#212323)
When you smile we can see the gold...
A man enters a barber shop for a shave. While the barber is foaming him up, he mentions the problems he has getting a close shave around the cheeks.

"I have just the thing," says the barber taking a small golden sphere from a nearby drawer. "Just place this between your cheek and gum."
The client places the ball in his mouth and the barber proceeds with the
closest shave the man has ever experienced. After a few strokes the client asks in garbled speech, "And what if I swallow it?"

"No problem," says the barber. "Just bring it back tomorrow like everyone
else does."
Perhaps you really CAN polish a turd.
got soap?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:10 - ID#284255)
We need more like this??? - email snippet
Swiss America Trading Corporation has formed the Year 2000 National Education Taskforce ( Y2KNET-see ) to offer
seminars, books, and audio/video tapes plus an entry-level Web site ( and to sell gold and silver, of course ) .

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:18 - ID#286249)
Silverbaron--re: Fannie and Freddie and Friends
The Mad Rush for Liquidity ( Euromoney )
Flight of the jumbos: deals of more than $3 billion

( 1 ) Fannie Mae/09 Jan 1998/fixed/$4,000/5 yrs/CSFB,Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch
( 2 ) Fannie Mae/02 Feb 1998/fixed/$4,000/10yrs/GoldmanSachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley
( 3 ) Republicof Italy/12 Feb 1998/fixed/Ecu 4,000/10 yrs/JP Morgan, Paribas, SBC Warburg Dillon Read
( 4 ) FannieMae/ 02 Mar 1998 /fixed/$4,000/3 yrs/Lehman, Merrill Lynch, SalomonSmith Barney
( 5 ) World Bank/04 Mar 1998/zero/Z 10,500/30/Goldman Sachs
( 6 ) World Bank/10 Mar 1998/fixed/$4,000/5 yrs/GoldmanSachs, JPMorgan, SBC Warburg Dillon Read
( 7 ) Fannie Mae/31 Mar 1998/fixed/$4,000/5 yrs/Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch
( 8 ) FreddieMac/06 Apr 1998/fixed/$5,000/10 yrs/GoldmanSachs, Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney
( 9 ) Republic of Korea/07 Apr 1998/fixed/$3,000/10 yrs/Goldman Sachs, SalomonSmith Barney
( 10 ) FannieMae/05 May 1998/FX/$3,000/10 yrs/CSFB, Lehman, Morgan Stanley

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:19 - ID#350179)
Executive Orders

Brain surgery? I'll look in the toolshed

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:23 - ID#224363)
Snip from Steve Kaplan's Page
Kaplan's Review:

COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 1,059,912 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks plunged 2,954,596 to 85,005,058
ounces, a new 12-year low. The Johannesburg gold index closed Tuesday morning at 1005.2, up 1.1 rand, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 6.0350 rand. On Monday, July 6, 1998, the dollar hit a new all-time record high of 6.7600 rand.

My Comments:

The pattern seems to be that there are 2-3 days of run up in the silver stocks and then a big whopper of a withdrawal. I imagine this implies that stocks are being placed in COMEX for removal a couple of days latter.

I think this will start to get very interesting around 70 to 75 million oz. There have been all sorts of comments about how much free silver there is out there ( and that may be ) but I would guess that it would take a pretty good jump to get that silver back in COMEX or London.

The key would seem to be:

1 ) How many buffet-like holders are there out there


2 ) What will it take for them to dribble their stocks back into inventory

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:25 - ID#411112)
Dave in Co...10K IRS report is for cash transactions,I was talking about taking it out not putting

it in.....I am aware of the fact that some banks in CO make you fill out some form if you with draw more than $ main point however was not many banks hold that much cash...therefore any bank run no matter how small will turn to panic

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:26 - ID#288295)

All this .....Mae and .....Mac money deals your article lists ( I can't keep track of all these organizations ) .....who bought all this paper?

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:26 - ID#295111)
Placer Dome to focus on SIlver Production in Chile Mine
That fact the PDG is emphasizing production of Silver and not the Gold at this mine suggests that PDG believes a BUMP_UP in the POG is not immenent in the short term at least.

Placer's Chile La Coipa processes Chimberos silver

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:29 - ID#253153)
A perfect reverse head and shoulders formation in the XAU
Take a look at the XAU chart going back to July 1986. We have just completed 12 years of base building with the left shoulder coming in on July 1986, the head was formed in Nov of 1993 and the right shoulder was just completed on Jan 1998. The neck line comes in at 92. A break out of the XAU above 92 will start a long lasting gold bull market. This formation is capable of supporting a very high gold price.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:30 - ID#286249)
Silverbaron--Oh, pension funds and the like...
They can't get enough! We are well down the rabbit hole friend. In fact, one feels sure the Mad Hatter no doubt runs a big bond fund! {:- ) )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:30 - ID#288295)

I think I get it now....probably money market funds held by all the brokerages listed. Yes?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:38 - ID#253153)
oops--Re my previous post, the head comes in on Nov 92.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:38 - ID#350179)
I am just shocked...
U.S drug-fighting agency has poor accounting, rocked by theft

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:43 - ID#253153)
There is perfect symmetry in the head and shoulders formation
It took 6.3 years for the head to be established ( July 86 to Nov 92 ) . It took almost 6 years for the right shoulder to be established ( Nov 92 to July 98 ) .

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:46 - ID#293379)
PMF (re silver evaporating)

I'm thinking that mines operate year round and that to make payroll they ship ore yearround, which in turn gets processed and ends up in the COMEX year round. The "big thing" is that the overall inventories have been dropping about 100 mil oz a year for the last few years ( deficit inventories for 9 straight years ) . WB 's play removed 20% of the known above ground supply. It will still take 3 years or so to wipe out the known inventory at the present rate. Then things get real intersting..
Some of this depends on Japan and India, whose economies are not on track...
My way cool silver broker tells me somebody bought and paid for 20 mil oz recently and intends to take delivery from COMEX! If true, we should see more of these big drops in the next month or two. Is it a smart company like Kodak that can smell higher prices over the next few years or is it another rich guy? I don't know, but I'm up to my ears in the stuff hoping for a quick rise to $10 per oz this year!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:51 - ID#288295)

Yep! Money market funds and bond funds - HOT POTATERS! The bad news, is that in my 401 ( k ) account, there just ain't no place safe. None. Nada. Money markets = cash ( NOT ) .

(Tue Jul 14 1998 18:59 - ID#227238)
Allen: Your offerings earlier this afternoon were an excellent read. You should take the time time to tilt back the chair, put your shoes on the desk ...... and ruminate more frequently. ..... There are probably many grandma's out there who do remember and would appreciate being recognized.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:00 - ID#284255)
klinton's Y2k speech

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:03 - ID#220325)
Geoffs-The Y2K evaluation you asked for is st today's
Snowbird 02:14 and Strat 04:48

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:03 - ID#411112)
FDIC prohibits its Y2K ratings of banks to be revealed...why..DA

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:03 - ID#350179)
My first/next SUV
Handy for running to the store & back, too.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:09 - ID#273227)
public FTP site for Easy Language
Does anyone know of a FTP site for Easy Language indicators/systems? I'm looking for a 123 reversal ( ala Oldman ) and a good automated channel breakout system. thanks

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:12 - ID#227238)
Sharefin: Thanks for the link. I couldn't stand to listen to the sumbithch in the flesh...... and would have missed it. ..... Only 17 months to go. We need to start a military style "shortimers calendar". Yes? With a diary of spiraling events.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:14 - ID#43460)
re evaporating silver
You know silver does have lots of uses which end up in the landfills or worse, everything from biocides for water filters to wires for consumer electronic devices. IMHO lots and lots of it is lost. Not saying that $100 per ounce wouldn't lead to landfill silver mines. ( %-^ ) )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:30 - ID#373284)
On Crossfire, CNN...yeah, yeah...I know...

Dave in CO
(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:33 - ID#229103)
My credit union told me that they would have to file a report for a cash withdrawal of $10K or more. I understand and agree with your point about the lack of available cash and the panic which would ensue. Thanks.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:35 - ID#227238)
Kuston: Oldman's primary instrument is the S&P fiddle. Like many others, he plays it well because he has learned to recognise when "outside forces" tweak the strings by stepping into the breech to stem a potential hemmorhage. ..... ( Sorry, for the dreadful use of mixed metaphors. )

My only point is that pursuing a "system" from this market level should be viewed as, potentially, a short term proposition.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:36 - ID#147201)
Donald re panning
That was an interesting site. I'm sure there are some signs of gold there, but you need Haggis! I have to admit that in the 80,s I supplied the two most prominent panning sites with their gold, here in N.C. If I ran one, I think I could stick to the local natural. Charlie

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:47 - ID#26793)
Your FDIC link is not working.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:48 - ID#242325)
Bulls and Bears
One of the best market timers I follow on another thread expects this move to peak soon, with the Dow going up another 200 points at most. But he does not expect the ensuing drop to go below 8250. And he does think there is a good chance of Dow 10,000 by spring 1999.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:52 - ID#284255)
I thought it was a good speech.
Didn't delve into the complexities but covered the broad range,
Brought the plight of utilities to question and hopefully doused the litigation side a bit.
It would've been preprared and was of reasonable scope.
Just two years too late.

Dave in co.
What would be wrong with writing a check out for 50k of gold?
Bart would be greatful anf the bank would follow through.
Might be some paperwork but the money's out of the bank and in physical.
Admittedly 'they' would know you have the gold but this applies to all.
Far better to hold gold than paper through the rollover.
Tis the best insurance money can buy.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:54 - ID#288295)
From interview w/Sean Morton part 7

Dayta-Co Art Bell Talk Reading Room Transcripts Sean David Morton on June 23, 1998
Transcribed by Caro Goodfellow
( 6 previous messages )
sysop - 02:33pm Jul 14, 1998 PST ( #7 of 7 )
Keith Rowland
AB: Back now to Sean David Morton. Sean, welcome back.
SDM: Thank you.
AB: If you would like to finish up on the Market...if there was anything not said properly...go ahead, then we'll go to the phones.
SDM: Ok. Like I said, my prediction for the Market is watch the downward trend to continue because of what's going on with Asia this month and through July. Then the Market will start to pick up again. I think it will break 10,000 toward the end of August and September. Then the third week of October you're going to see the beginning of a tumble. It's a readjustment of the Market, it's not a complete and total crash. The banks must confederate first. Once the banks get the kind of stock control that they want, they're going to start investing and the Stock Market is going to go crazy for a period of time. Even though OUR economy is going to start to pretty much go in the toilet by '99, I'm sure you know that the Market is removed from the economy and sometimes the worse the economy does, the better the Market does.
AB: I know.
SDM: Once again, watch for the year 2000, or the Spring, 2000, as being the really substantial collapse of the Market, bringing along the collapse of these various banking systems and structures. I also think you're going to see, silver is about $6.50 or $7.00 an ounce and you're going to see silver go to $12.00. I think that's probably the best investment to make now...silver and silver coins. Not quite so much gold. Gold is going to go up, but not as much as silver.
AB: All the phones we go.
{Editor's note: This is where I'm ending the transcript. The rest is phone calls. - Caro}
******** END ********

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:55 - ID#259400)
@Old Gold
If you have no objection sharing where is the other thread? I went all the way back to January the other night reading Kitco posts. Amazing how little has changed in 6 months. I need some fresh insights. I also happen to agree with the other guy. I have been predicting 93-9500 by late July early August and then a downturn in the fall. For gold I have been looking for a late summer rally before gold resumes it's downward march to 100-140.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:55 - ID#284255)
Splice the "4.htm" on to the end.
It was cut in two.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:55 - ID#411112)
Donald....left out a . don't you hate that when it happens

(Tue Jul 14 1998 19:57 - ID#411112)
Donald works on preview the 4 letters dont show up in the URL....


(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:03 - ID#43460)
robnoel_A, you are a cool! I backtracked through your URL and found all sorts of good stuff.
Look at this other FDIC letter. I suppose if they didn't want these things published they wouldn't put them on the internet without a privacy act notification. ; )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:04 - ID#252182)
lawsuit says state falsified forms about y2k
from July 14 Wisconsin State Journal: The Wisconsin Office of Credit Unions is accused of falsifying forms about how ready state credit unions are for computer glitches in 2000....The accusation was made last month in a lawsuit brought by former chief examiner for the Office of Credit Unions......The suit says that earlier this year forms were sent out for state agencies to hand out to credit unions. The forms asked credit unions about their awareness of potential computer problems that would begin when the year changed from "99" to "00."......The plaintiff alleges that "a substantial percentage" of the state forms were returned with mistakes in them and "ficticious data" was used to complete them.
If the honorable State of Wisconsin would do such a lowly thing, what would banks and the Federal Government do?
I've got gold, how 'bout you?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:04 - ID#26793)
@Robnoel, Sharefin; got it. Thanks

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:07 - ID#270253)
General market comments
As you know, I use the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index as one of my main tools. The NYSE oscillator that I use is volume adjusted to 1600 issues ( adv + dec ) per day. This allows me to compare 1998 numbers to those of the last twenty years. We have many more issues trading today than in the past.

To the point, my summation index peaked over 3000 last July. This reliable indicator projects three waves down ( finished in June ) and a final make it or break it rally. If the final burst also has the breadth to push the summation index over +3000, the pattern repeats. We must wait to see if this is the case in 1998. Some clues are there for us already. Most long term, major breakouts in the S&P are accompanied by McClellan Oscillator readings over +150. Not this one, yet.

New lows in New York at a level over 2.5% of the total issues advancing and declining ( currently around 75 issues ) while the Dow hits new highs is VERY dangerous. This condition is required for several days. I expect this situation to remedy itself for now, but keep an eye on it later in the summer.

I am selling into strength, gradually on an issue by issue basis in anticipation of trouble. By doing this, I am in control, not the other way around.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:16 - ID#207145)
Mike Stewart
What you mentioned correlates with what I am hearing. I understand a new high will come around the 23rd, give or take 2 days. 9300 and 9600 are key targets. Jerry Favor is the eerily correct analyst. Selling into strenghth Wed., annd Thurs. Using European stocks giving me advanced warning.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:22 - ID#240288)

Been looking at some fat sheep as the Dow leaps to new highs. Banks, internet, and computer stocks are among the most vulnerable. Looking to buy LEAP puts on about 10 selected stocks. A few that look good now are Microsoft, Yahoo, Amazon, and NBD. Any comments or ideas?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:24 - ID#207145)
Mike Stewart,
I'm using Invesco European Fund. If our rally fails, I have until 4 o'clock to get out without penalty as european stocks closed in the A.M. A little cusion never hurts.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:26 - ID#227238)
Kuston: What do you make of the PL chart? It has held at 375 for a low for more than a week. The candlestick pattern is unusual and difficult to discern. ...... In the absence of anything more to go on, it would seem that the engulphing bar on 7/10 would have to be considered as still in force. And the nearterm trend is down. Yes?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:34 - ID#251166)
@ Earl re. PL
Hi Earl. Appreciate your work. Are you at all able to upload your PL graph to Kitco and let's look at it? Many I'm sure would be much obliged. Thanks!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:46 - ID#411112)
gagnrad...I always wonder about that,then again by posting it on the net they have an out,ie What do

you mean we did not tell you..we posted it on the net.....the FDIC is dumb like a fox

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:47 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
First quarter money supply was a shocking 15%.
Is the Fed getting ready for y2k by flooding the country with paper?
Depends on which M "money supply" you're talking about. If the
Fed is pumping out lots of paper money, M1 will show a spike
relative to M2 and M3. If M2 and M3 are also growing rapidly,
a rapid rise in M1 probably doesn't mean anything about what
the Fed is doing with paper money.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:50 - ID#93232)
Gold won't go to 100-140. The US dollar would have to be that much stronger & other commodoties, especially oil, would have to drop proportionally. Won't happen...da' Nile IS a river in Africa!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:51 - ID#26467)
FWIW '99 Nov.Beans are close to contract lows and should make their lows end of the week or early next week.Coffee is coming within the same
time frame and contract lows.DX breaking 100 will put the
skids underneath the bond market and allow the precious metals
and the grains to rally.With oils bottoming and rising the transports
will decline first and utilities next.End of July is stacking
up to be an important phase in the markets.Happy trading and
have a nice day.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 20:57 - ID#227238)
jonesy: Here is the PL chart your requested. Totally devoid of all superfluous fluff and gingerbread ..... which only serves to distract.

If I had an intelligent comment to add, I would ..... But I don't. ..... So I won't.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:01 - ID#411112)
sharfin...Greenspan said so in Feb article USA Today,also Treasury is about to introduce new $20's

$10's maybe $5's and $1's before 2000,they will not take out the old ones so what do you have

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:03 - ID#207145)
All equities will correct
including gold and oil. This false rally will be sold hard. Indiders are trigger happy now. I will be patient and buy after the selling is done.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:08 - ID#207145)
October lows
And the right time might be then . I invest in Europe. Europe is over bought also. The fruit is almost dead ripe. It will be picked soon.

Ronald Jett__A
(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:11 - ID#413119)
For those interested in silver mining .

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:12 - ID#207145)
Money in-flows
You gotta love yhe retail guys with all that money. And foreighners. Thats why i"m not out of this market now. I am selling into strength. Don't you love this business. Fear, danger, intrigue. I gotta be nuts.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:13 - ID#227238)
Cyclist: Dec corn continues to look unremittingly grim. With only the brief 2 week rally in June to confound the picture that has formed since Nov of 97. At 23675, it is near the long term lows and yet it has no sign of a turnaround. The weekly chart shows no sign of visible life, whatsoever. ..... Looks like gold since Feb 96, akchooly.

Nov beans are modestly better. They are above the 608 lows with 2 intraweekly highs, capped at 673 +/-. ..... At least the chart is merely unsettled rather than grim.

Dec wheat says: Don't give up yer day job fer wheat farming. ...... worse than gold since Feb 96.

Not a good time and place to be in the resource business.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:13 - ID#384350)
Oz & NZ
Harry Schultz Letter ( +32 16 533 684 ) says that Australia and New Zealand's economies are both greatly impacted by Asia's crisis. Due to sharp drops in exports ( 60% go to Asia ) , Oz & NZ current account deficits are widening, pressuring currencies. NZ$ recently fell to lowest level since 1993, & A$ to 12-yr low. Moody's put NZ's foreign debt rating on negative credit watch for likely downgrade & Fitch IBCA put Oz sovereign debt rating on "alert negative". Over 40% of Oz's foreign debt has less than 1-year maturity & is vulnerable to volatile exchange rate "rollover-risk".

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:18 - ID#207145)
No Asian demand for grains ( or oil, gold, etc ) . How is gold to turn around without Asian demand? Wage pressure. That's all I can see to move it. That could happen any month now. We need the CRB to turn. It will not any time soon. Currency trouble in October? Sure, but where is the CRB?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:24 - ID#207145)
Maybe 1 Jan with the EURO
This may be a date for gold, if not October. Now might not be a good time to buy paper, not even gold stocks.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:25 - ID#227238)
Blooper: Apparently, the time to buy grains is when CNN features grain farmers from Kansas and Oklahoma loading all that they own onto their Model A and heading for California. ...... They still have Model A's; don't they? ....... Ok. Their Suburban, then.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:31 - ID#253418)
Misc Musings
Silver stock at Comex at 85 million a new all time low!!
Silver steady, asleep at 5.33, SSC dead at 13/16ths

The Transports which should confirm the DOW's new highs have rallied 10% off recent lows of seven weeks ago and are not that far from confirming.
The advance decline the new highs new lows look miserable, as you would expect them too in a blue chip liquidity driven market.

Armstrong writes: beware of the Russian Third Revolution coming to a newstand in coming weeks, and the Japanese bailout of their banks is a flwed plan. Are we surprised.

Don't see any head and sholders in the XAU just three times on the long term charts when gold have been this low. A close of 69+ before a close below 67 would be very helpful to the bull case.

Perdiction: The Dow, S&Ps and the Transports will rally into the 23rd. Crisis in Russia will pull the plug on European equities, bonds in US will soar, dollar will climb, gold will listlessly move sideways, silver will jump to $6 then pull back to $5.50 and the DOW will pull back to the 9000 level until the New Year.

Dow 10,000 before Gold $315.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:32 - ID#259400)
Strat, my reasoning goes like this. I'll take gold first. My grandfather ( born 1886 ) ranted and raved about "fiat currency" and the dangers thereof. He felt very strongly on this issue and to his final days felt the government was cheating him and stealing away "his" money. He wanted a return to gold and silver money. My father ( born 1913 ) felt less strongly about the issue. He did not like fiat currency but accepted it as inevitable and regarded money as a "medium of exchange" and as such what it was made of no big deal. I was born in 1939. I have known only "paper" money and have seen the gradual switch from money to checks to plastic credit and debit cards. I still use money in my daily transactions and only use checks for paying bills. I don't understand ATM machines and credit cards and much prefer to throw 20 dollar bills down to make a purchase. My children ( born 1960's ) do not understand money. They write checks and use plastic credit and debit cards. The thought of making a purchase and paying for it in cash is totally foreign and alien to them. The point of all this is that fiat money has replaced gold as money and then plastic replace money as money. If the people do not believe gold is money than the central banks can sell it off with impunity. I believe that over time gold will be dumped on the market and the price driven down until it reaches it's market value as a commodity the same as soybeans, silver or copper. I may be wrong but I have yet to read anything that would lead me to believe gold will ever become worth more that it's true value as a commodity.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:33 - ID#207145)
What goes around comes around. When grain farmers and gold miners start to prosper, the rest of the country will experience an unreal escalation of inflation.Then rates go up and recession follows. It's coming. I guess one of these days. sometime . Mabe before we die.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:36 - ID#286253)
Ted Butler and the 20 million oz Delivery:

There has been talk ( on the street, in these parts and in particular on Ted Butler's most recent blurb on Golden-Eagle ) ) of a "big buyer" standing for 20 million ozs of Si this delivery period. The name Kodak was bounced around more than once. Was this it? Was one-quarter of the remaining visible silver stocks about to disappear into a vat of film-making chemicals? Was the final squeeze underway?

I like the silver story as much as anyone, but I am not sure about this particular chapter. The anomolous detail here was not so much that someone stood for 4000 contracts, but that someone _delivered_ on 4000 contracts and did so so quickly ( the 3rd ( ? ) day of the notice period. ) That delivery took place so quickly indicates that no squeeze was on. A textbook squeeze would have seen open interest remain high well into the second week of notice period and the market into backwardation as the short scrambled to get his hands on the warrents. This didn't happen. The short in this case _knew_ the party at the other end of the contract was going to take delivery.

In short, the whole maneuover smacks of a bookkeeping transaction. Perhaps one leg of a more complex OTC arrangement? Dunno. At any rate, 20 million ozs is now in someone else's hands and it remains to be seen what these new hands are gonna do with it. The 3,000,000 oz withdrawl today might still be a harbinger of things to come.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 21:39 - ID#43460)
What about the supply side for agricultural products?
This website links to a current information page which in turn links to a precipitation map among other things. I think that one must factor in supply as well as demand in these things. In fact if I were buying/selling crop futures I'd be in a plane going low level over the fields looking for myself. IMHO

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:00 - ID#255226)
Silver, S&P
Back from vacation, watched the 4th of July fireworks from the Capitol steps, great experience. Markets have not changed much, S&P still on track for 1225-1250, I'm still long from 1140, any dips should be bought. Sell Dec Silver above 5.40 stop 5.50, objective 4.80 in Aug..

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:01 - ID#93232)
I don't disagree with you that gold may very well go down in price and I appreciate your analysis of your family's generational concepts of money, is still held in central banks. Gold is still money in many parts of the world...Asia, the Middle East, even Mexico, where smugglers have made it the preferred payment for getting someone into the US. America may very well be the worst place in the world to hold gold, for a variety of reasons. And the fact is gold is appreciating in value in many parts of the world that suffer from unstable currencies. Unfortunately for goldbugs ( so they think ) the US dollar is strong and that makes gold very weak here. To be honest with you, I already view gold as a commodity. But then the US$ is a commodity too...a lot of 'em going around today. I don't think gold will ever be perceived by the American public as money, per se, but, from what I can tell, it is still perceived as such in much of the world and will continue to be so. As an investment, it's not any worse than stocks or mutual funds, at this point, with gold nearing 19 year lows. Maybe I'm pissin' in the wind, but as my father used to say, if you're going to buy low & sell high, first thing you gotta do is buy low...

The Hatt
(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:04 - ID#294232)
Australia and Canada made their own beds!
It is a shame that these two countries are even allowed to trade gold after having sold off the majority of their reserves! In both cases their currencies have collapsed and now we have the producers selling forward to take advantage of the spread in currencies. I say to hell with them and let the governments answer to the people how they could be so foolish! Let a few of the producers go under and perhaps others would get the picture.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:07 - ID#16255)
@Bill2j.what the hell is wrong with me? I am only 41
and I would be happy to take gold as payment for anything I might sell!
Most folks I know are in debt up to thier eyeballs. They tell me I am a
fool for being debt free ( own it all house, cars et all ) free and clear.
I am not benifiting from the tax writeoff. They ask why I did not take
the money to pay off the house and invest it and do much better! I reply,
"that I can loose my job tomorrow and sit on my butt for 10 years and do
without nothing and file a "0" dollar tax return."
When I ask how long they can hang on if they lost thier job, they reply
"oh a few months" but I dont have to worry about that "the economy is
great!" I just smile and nod...

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:08 - ID#401460)
More Aid

Tuesday July 14, 9:52 pm Eastern Time

U.S. to help Haiti private sector amid crisis

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti, July 14 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade David Aaron announced new small-scale initiatives Tuesday to support economic growth in Haiti.

``The president asked me to serve as chairman of a National Security Council committee on Haitian economic growth because of his keen personal interest in trying to do all he can to help Haiti to improve its economic situation,'' Aaron told a news conference during a two-day visit to Haiti.

Heck let's help every body .... just print more money!


(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:09 - ID#43460)
drought map and agricultural bulletin
Here are a couple of samples I pulled from the USDA website. Note they haven't been updated this week, but you can see that the south and midwest are under unusual weather conditions. 'Tis hard to grow corn under water or without, methinks. ( Hats off to RJ )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:11 - ID#431263)
Leading the percentage GAIN list on the NYSE as it hits an all time new high! UP 38.8%!! A TASTE OF THINGS TO COME!!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:14 - ID#401460)
Copper up again...?

September High Grade Copper
Commodity Research Bureau Index


(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:28 - ID#259400)
@Strat, Open Loop
I agree with the buy low, sell high thing. Problem is we are living in a japanese style "bubble" and the american stock market is going a lot higher while gold goes a lot lower. I calculate the stock market has taken on a life of its own that no longer has any relation to reality. I believe the word is it has become "decoupled". As long as 25-30 billion a month pour into mutual funds from 401-k plans and the like the fund managers will continue to be fully invested by the end of the month. As long as that money pours into the market day after day after day the market will go up. I can see the Dow going to 15-20,000 over the next 10 years before it slacks off. All this while gold will be in bear market. I figure the Dow bull to run strong till 2008-2010. I figure 15,000 on the Dow, maybe 20,000 before the bear sets in. I figure gold will be in a bear till then with 100-140 as the low. At that point in time the pendulum will turn and the Dow will go into a 20 year decline. In the meantime the money pours in daily in a never ending river of funds that must go somewhere and stocks is where it is going. Tell me what will stop that river of money from pouring in every month and I might believe differently but all I can see is the river getting stronger monthly.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:28 - ID#263254)
Hey...Dave in Co.
I believe you were the one that picked apart the last posting on a y2k programming issue. Can you pick apart this one for me, please? Much obliged.

"Computers are stupid. They don't know how many months the year 1999 has in it. So, all you'd have to do is get into the computer and change the 12 months to 99 months... another two-digit date... and the government would be able, rather simply, to buy themselves another 8.25 years to fix their problem"

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:29 - ID#248180)
MDG a Gold Stock the BIGGEST Gainer in todays NY Market
Sir Cheese-Man, it is curious indeed that a Gold Stock Lead the Herd. Don't really know how to interpret good news anymore. Too Numb

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:32 - ID#219363)
I see what you're saying and agree for the most part.

I don't think people choose credit cards or checks or cash or gold for the same reasons, they all have different uses for people.

Gold is safe. It's hard to spend, pretty, good store of value, recognized everywhere, and pretty close to impossible to spend at the store.

Cash is pretty safe. It's easy to spend, portable, anonymous like gold, and it's recognized everywhere in the country.

Checks are really cool because you can send them through the mail, they're accepted at pretty many places, and hell, you can print them like money and cover them a few days later ( nice from a personal cash flow perspective ) .

Credit cards and ATM cards are extremely convenient, easy to use, accepted relatively widely, but they require electricity and computer equipment most of the time which I find fails me a few times each year.

So anyway, I think people would use gold if there was a reason to use gold. Unfortunately, the only time I can see that being the case is if there was a reason to not trust the financial system, or not be able to depend on it, which probably means the world has gone into the crapper.

Money works as long as people trust it.

Anyway, my 0.02$US

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:34 - ID#431263)
GSR AT 1 11/16 IS A STEAL!
Traded at 20 just over 18 months ago! When gold takes off it'll trade to 100!! It's diamonds and gold are as good today as they were 18 months ago! All we need is a c=shift in market sentiment! I bought a 1,000 shares today at 1 3/4 and plan on buyin' some more tomorrow.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:35 - ID#401460)
IMF Funding

Tuesday July 14, 10:11 pm Eastern Time

U.S. House panel set to offer IMF some cash

``I will introduce it at $3.5 billion,'' said Callahan, chairman of the House Appropriations' foreign operations subcommittee......

``I don't want to be a part of a legislative body that puts the president in a position where he cannot participate in this global economy,'' Callahan said.

Print, Print, Print.......

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:38 - ID#248180)
Oris - " Russia Problems or Opportunities"?
Oris ( Braht ) it has has been weeks since spoke of these issues. Please respond. Does Russia present us with Opportunities or unsolvable Problems?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:39 - ID#374204)
As I'm an Aggie ( not A&M ) , I think you will find
that disaster somewhere is the golden goose elsewhere.
If US producers dip, we simply import from where the
weather has been made ideal by El Nino, that brat kid.

US & Canada are 99% good on staples - noone could ever
compete with North American mechanized farming.

And, no offense, but who here ever considers such details
as the balance of trade anymore?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:47 - ID#263254)
just broadcasted the first in a series of articles on Y2K. This one centered around Y2K in the home, and the embedded chip threat. And I must say, I'm proud of them. They didn't cower, very much that is. Their last words were a suggestion to check with your appliance manufacturers and your local utility, "just to be sure".

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:49 - ID#16255)
@Bill2j. But what if the flow of cash dries up overnight?
You may be right, and I will miss the chance to double my money several
times over once again. I did just that in recent years and thought it was
just too good to be true. Took the money, paid the tax and got out of debt and socked alot away. I have very little exposure to the market
now ( 20k ) and a 401k which I have little control over and expect it
to be vapor when the time comes. We have always lived within our means
and my wife only works part time because she wants to. ( 2-12 hour shifts
per month as a R.N. ) , not because we have bills to pay!
We are in the process of "hoarding" food for this uncertain future and
hope we dont need it. We are stashing enough for our neighbors also. I
figure it will be easy to win them over if they are hungry :- )
( they dont know it yet ) . Can also arm every one of them.
My gut has been screaming at me for the past 5 years that something big
is gonna happen, that will change everything, so I behave accordingly.

If I am wrong, we will not need to go to the store for a real long time... hee hee.

Best Regards, O.L.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:49 - ID#43349)
So long as unemployment stays low and people continue to earn enough to keep pouring money into funds the decoupling will continue.

But manufacuring is going down, earnigs are going down, and soon enough employment will start going down.

People will begin to try and get money back from equities.

First out get to keep a few marbles. The rest....

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:49 - ID#431263)
But yesterday I put 10 grand into an emerging market mutual fund! I know, I know, I'm a damn hypocrite, but the values are just too compelling and with RR and AG bailin' out the world, the risk in the near term appears to be minimal! Mea culpa! Mea culpa! My emerging market screen is GREEN and that means GO and make some MO to buy some mo' GOLD!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:50 - ID#43460)
Tantalus__A (emulating RJ)
'Steeth, I hadn't thought o' that. I shan't trade corn!

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:50 - ID#432214)
Bill2J & Gold
Your $100-$140 prediction for gold would come true if asia was not in the picture. The long term price appreciation in gold will come from endless buying from India and China. These countries know the value of gold. The question that you have to ask is, when the people of asia get back on their feet what will they invest their savings in ??? My bet is gold. It won't be stocks or bonds especially in markets that are down 90%. Its human nature, conservative people do not like getting wiped out twice by the same investment. IMHO

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:51 - ID#93232)
Recession...put your ear to the tracks and you can hear the "Iron Horse" coming. Can't see it...can't hear it...but it's there. You've got a good point about the stock market having a life of its own. Millions of people are playing stocks like they are lottery tickets or being compelled to invest by tax laws. The big question in my mind is what will people do when money gets tight. No more "lottery tickets". People won't be buying stocks. Just like November 1929. And how will that affect the US dollar? People ( like my brother ) believe all the marketing jazz about stocks rising in the long run, ignoring the reality of recovery from the 1929 crash ( many folks never got their money back on worthless stocks and for others the recovery didn't begin until after WWII ) . Don't get me wrong...I don't think hard-working people should suffer unemployment and that they should get a fair value from their work & their investments. But it seems to me most assets ( stocks, real estate, etc. ) are overpriced right now and commodities are cheap. There is a tremendous amount of money chasing American stocks and real estate right now. It is, as you say, unreal.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 22:59 - ID#242303)
Bill2J.. Decoupled is the word...
GM reports over a billion dollars lost to the strike over 125,00 are laid off because of it... Intel reports lower 2Q than expected and the Dow and Nasdaq contniue crashing UPWARDS.

Hell, the dumber you are the better you've done over the last few years. That's why we shouldn't analyse what might happen if... too much cause it never works out that way.

Clinton looked a goner a few months ago but he looks pretty solid now. The markets wet their pants over the possibilty of Rubin leaving a few months back, now they don't give a ###.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:00 - ID#16255)

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:01 - ID#411259)
..... Ted Butler wrote .....

"Just for the sake of discussion, in your reply to Sam, about metal loans being short sales, you stated these aren't naked spec shorts, as producers can deliver with production, and that forward sales are done with all commodities and are prudent.

For the record, a producer "hedged" 5 to 10 years forward will be in the same position as a naked spec short in a price spike. Also, in no other commodity, except precious metals, does the selling of the physical commodity take place at the outset of the loan, or hedge, or forward sale to raise cash. When a farmer hedges, he sells futures, he doesn't "borrow" corn from the elevator in some cockamamie transaction that has so many twists and turns that even the originators can't follow them. Forward sales aren't hedges, futures may be. Forward sales and metal loans are scams that have distorted the markets."

Ted -
The crucial difference is the gold producer borrows the metal for an absurdly low rate, sells it, and banks the cash. The farmer simply has a margin hedge that he may or may not deliver, preferring instead, if the market moves against him, to simply purchase an offsetting contract. He does not, in either case, have full payment for the commodity sold because all he sold is paper. When a gold producer sells, since he sells the real thing for immediate delivery, he gets full payment. The two cannot be properly compared.

What confuses me most is your statement that, "For the record, a producer "hedged" 5 to 10 years forward will be in the same position as a naked spec short in a price spike." How is this so?

If a producer sells gold for more than its cost of production, he has made a profit, yes? The POG could go to a squillion dollars per ounce and it would not affect the bottom line for the metal already sold, it is still being sold for more than it cost to produce. They may miss out on squillions in profits but the will not take a loss on the sale.

Additionally, any gold producer can simply hedge their own forward sales in the futures market. If they see POG going beyond their locked in forward sales, they can buy a few long contracts to offset the forward sales.

Judging but your past writings, of which I read frequently, your complaint is with the CBs and their methods. The gold producer is just taking advantage of a sweet deal. Predictability of revenue is the only way one can produce a commodity and stay in business should the market turn against you. Forward sales are responsible for many mines still being open that would have otherwise closed with the abysmal performance of gold these last few years.

I read one of you silver pieces recently and, while we are not in entire agreement, I respect you position and the obvious amount of research that goes into your opinions. I believe we could count ourselves brother in arms when it comes to our contempt for certain market manipulations. On Kitco I may also rouse myself in righteous anger about some of the games being played. But when I am trading, the anger is left aside and I simply try to follow the big money. If the big $ is manipulating the hell out of a market, I have no compunctions about grabbing onto the coattails for a profitable ride.


(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:06 - ID#431263)
I needed that! Whip me again! Harder! Harder! Before Dizzy wakes up and serves me for breakfast to the Zulus!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:07 - ID#43349)
As long as the dollar stays up gold will stay down.

As long as unemplyment stays down the market will stay up.

But there may be exceptions.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:14 - ID#411259)
..... gagnraaaaaarrrgghhhggg .....

You are right about that gargle thingie in the middle but I still need practice in the transition out of the gargle and back into human speech. I studied Arabic for a year and your handle would make the most rabid Arab lexicographers squeal with masochistic delight. Wait. Im just trying to imagine a squealing Arab Not an comforting picture.. No indeedy.

You will not remain unpronounceable forever. I will endeavor to persevere. ( Stole that from Chief Dan George in "The Outlaw Josey Whales" ) I shan't continue this nonsense other than to say, if I can't do the English Butler gig for the Fin Who, From His Bountiful Land, Shares, I shan't hesitate to recommend you.

You got the rap down, homey.....

Uh Huh

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:14 - ID#16255)
@GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD Pool is the game, But you dont get wet!
However,In light of recent market actions, you may have made a good move!
OH NO! I just sounded like a Stock Market Bull! Now I must go sit
in the corner. Move over!

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:22 - ID#16255)
@Gollum...How is your wife doing after her surgery?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:22 - ID#431200)
TORONTO, July 14 (Reuters) - Shares in Meridian Gold Inc. soared in heavy trading on the Toronto Sto

Tuesday July 14, 6:38 pm Eastern Time
Meridian shares soar on drill results
By Paul Simao
TORONTO, July 14 ( Reuters ) - Shares in Meridian Gold Inc. soared in heavy trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday after the U.S.-based company said it had discovered significantly higher grades of gold and silver at its El Penon mine in northern Chile.
Meridian Gold's stock jumped C$1.90 to C$6.50 on the announcement, continuing a two-week flight which has seen the junior gold-mining company double in value.
The company said in a statement that drilling at its Quebrada Colorada and Doncella zones at El Penon had detected unexpectedly higher grades of gold just two weeks after a new ore body was discovered.
Assay results from three holes at the Quebrada Colorada zone revealed total average grades for gold between 36.1 grams and 332.2 grams per tonne of ore, the company said.
Total average grades for silver ranged between 698.3 and2,196.8 grams per tonne of ore, the company said. Meridian Gold said the drill samples had been assayed, or verified, several times, with further verification planned. ``The results are good, the grade is good...and it is all very positive,'' said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada Inc.
Meridian said the discovery of higher grades of gold could increase estimated gold production and reduce the cash costs at the $80-million El Penon mine.
The company had expected El Penon mine would produce 130,000 ounces of gold and 1.9 million ounces of silver annually during the mine's eight-year life, with a cash cost of $180 per ounce of gold.
Meridian Gold also reported on Tuesday a net loss of $5.5 million, or $0.07 a share, in the second quarter of 1998, compared with a loss of $7.8 million, or $0.11 a share, in the same period last year.
( $1 equals $1.48 Canadian )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:24 - ID#431366)
Embedded chips - It's all in your head!
A lady came in and said she was convinced that "they" will be putting chips in our heads in the next few years. She reads New American and similar stuff. I told her that Y2K will derail everything - the gov't will be so busy trying to keeping a lid on things "they" won't have time to deal with more chips. Also - if folks get scared of embedded chips failing during Y2K they won't tolerate having them in their heads.
This lady is absolutely convinced that Y2K will be just an excuse to clamp even more controls on everyone.
I wonder if the chips will snitch on you if you do illegal things or even just sorta weird things - like buying Gold, Silver and cases of beef stew.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:33 - ID#147201)
RJ your 23:01
An excellent exposition. I have to agree. If you trade, you had better not have any emotion hanging on. I'm sure the "sweet deal" was maybe taken advantage of excessively, that is a market move that results rather than a move that was manipulated. At least not by gold miners. Many thanx, Charlie

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:37 - ID#238422)
Privet, brother, I bet you know that it depends
on how well you are connected and who is on the other
side. At this particular time and if you are in honest
business, or let me say, straight forward business,
I would not be too excited about opportunities. Some danger
seems to be growing, although I hope that all they will
loose is their fresh prime minister, whose fate was
determined when he was appointed instead of old smart wolf
Chernomyrdin, which seems to be the man respected by both
"reds" and "whites" ( you know who were those guys of
1918-1920 ) . Problems will be sold, but how long you are
willing to wait? If you want, my e-mail is

In general, there is a possibility of "unsolved problems" in
the nearest future, so do not buy Russian stocks for now.

My friend in Moscow, who is as close to the scene as it is
possible to imagine, is not happy with the recent developments.
He was never wrong before, so just be cautious with giving
them more money...

I believe you know everything I wrote above, but you wanted
my opinion, and it gives me a great pleasure to correspond
with you.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:38 - ID#240288)
Embedded Chips in the Head

Very likely "they" will do this. Any phrenologist worth his salt, however, should be able to find and remove them.

John B__A
(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:40 - ID#211105)
Nice to see APH back
Restores solid trading discipline back to this site:

Date: Tue Jul 14 1998 22:00
APH ( Silver, S&P ) ID#255226:
Back from vacation, watched the 4th of July fireworks from the Capitol steps, great experience. Markets have not changed much, S&P still on track for 1225-1250, I'm still long from 1140, any dips should be bought. Sell Dec Silver above 5.40 stop 5.50, objective 4.80 in Aug..

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:42 - ID#430212)
Golden Star Resources GSR
The company will be coming out with a positive announcemnet within the next couple of weeks.

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:47 - ID#45173)
Deflation Symptoms #1 and #2: Lower Wholesale Prices and Unemployment
Barrons has been talking deflation for about six months, to wit:

Running Out of Steam

More deflationary evidence piled up last week, as June wholesale prices resumed the downward trend that had been interrupted in April and May, and the four-week moving average of unemployment claims rose to its highest level in more than two years. Coming at the start of earnings season, the news spooked Wall Street with renewed fears that a cooling economy will torpedo corporate profits -- but the worries weren't enough to prevent several indexes from achieving historic new highs.

Bull Market for Pink Slips

Given the sudden spike in unemployment claims, it's not surprising that job reductions have been exploding-with more announced in June, according to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, than in the entire second quarter a year earlier. In fact, 1998 job cuts to date are 6% ahead of the total in the first half of 1993, the decade's worst year for job losses. Last week's layoff announcements included approximately 300 at System Software Associates, 1,100 at CNA Financial and 120 at Morton International. SB900111255577603500.djm


Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:49 - ID#347267)
Family and Y2k
Follows a message sent to widely scattered members of my family in yet another attempt to make them realize that this is a significant problem. ( As I have mentioned before, only one ( of seventeen ) has even bothered to acknowledge that I have attempted to warn them ( I do send a related message monthly ) . I can almost hear the snickers about their crazy Uncle, brother in law, brother, cousin!!! when the email arrives; but they are FAMILY and I love them, I must try!
Hello to all:
El Prez's Y2k Speech today:
This will only serve to start waking a few more people up. It is going to take a directly related EVENT or failure to make people realize that "Houston, We Have A Problem!" The context of his speech was not serious and left you with the flavor that "just another computer problem for the computer people to fix".

My opinion: Some parts of our system are not going to make it. Best do some sort of preparation in case the power grid goes down for awhile or the banks have a Government imposed "Holiday" for awhile. Prepare as if for a storm you know is coming. Worst thing that can happen if things are OK, is you may have a stockpile of necessities for the next weather related storm, and maybe a small amount of cash on hand that can be put back in the bank. If anyone wants some internet references on the Y2k subject, just let me know.

Countdown Clock: This is a HARD Date as we used to say in the rocket scheduling business; with the exception that the Government or anybody else CANNOT slip the date!!!!

TFW ( The Family Worrier )

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:50 - ID#248180)
Russia - Problems or Opportunities
Oris: Thank you very much for your valued opinions. I cannot now comment at length as a few phone conferences now await me. Until later and Kind regards, Jr

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:53 - ID#286253)
@ Goldteck re Meridian

Not to rain on the parade, but if the company "had expected" to produce cash cost gold at $180, why did it lose eight million bucks? Should we believe 'em now?

(Tue Jul 14 1998 23:53 - ID#43349)
She's doing great. Thank you for your concern.