Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:00 - ID#411259)
..... Sam_A & sam .....

Are you the same person?

Sam_A -
Reread my post. I said if a producer does not have the necessary cash to hedge or buy back forward sales, the getting killed scenario could follow. I agree with all else you wrote.

Regarding buying gold in US dollars, the transactions you speak of may be transparent to the buyer, but the metal is priced in dollars. To use a very real and recent example:

The rand has fallen precipitously. One could have gone into buy gold in rand last Tuesday and paid, to use an arbitrary number, 500 rand for the gold. The same fellow tries to buy some gold today he might have to spend 550 rand, yet the price of gold has not moved.

Gold is priced in dollars, therefore any purchase of gold must be related to the value of the dollar. The rest is semantics.

Tyoung -
I said precisely that it would take a worldwide change in the way gold is traded. Is this not enough? Yes, things can change, but they certainly wont anytime soon. Oh yeah, oil is traded in US dollars too. Please dont ask me if it can be purchased in Dinar, or Yen, or Marks, it is priced in dollars. Should any of these currencies fall against the dollar, the price of oil would ( and does ) rise even though oil is dirt cheap in dollars.

I did not make this so, but it is so.

FOA not only did misstate but the slant was designed to make people believe a Eurodollar purchase of gold was possible. Please read the FOA post before you argue this point. The intent and bias is very clear.

Sam ( same one? ) -
No worries about feline or fowl, the tree is in an oak barrel on the second floor patio. Thanks for the no seed info, I will let nature take its course.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:02 - ID#401237)
Squirrel, Off Subject - Apple

Wednesday July 15, 7:43 pm Eastern Time

Apple Reports Profit of $101M.
The company earned $101 million, or 65 cents a diluted share, in the April-June quarter, far outstripping analysts' expectations. That compares with a loss of $56 million, or 44 cents a diluted share, in the same period last year.

Revenues were down 19 percent, to $1.4 billion from $1.7 billion, but were about the same as the previous quarter's, in line with Apple's predictions.

Boosting the just-ended quarter's results was $26 million stemming from an investment gain. Without it, Apple would have earned $75 million, or 50 cents a share.

Still, the numbers surpassed the 33-cent-per-share forecast by analysts surveyed by First Call.

``It's a blowout,'' said Lou Mazzucchelli, a Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. analyst. ``Margins were great... Consensus was 33 cents and yours truly was at 42 cents. It's really, really good. They are executing the plan.''


(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:03 - ID#247273)
paper must be tendered!
Thank god for the military, if it is all that stands between us and the complete sellout of our reserves. If the accountants have gained control, then you can bet that they have sold the last ounce to enhance the quarterly earnings! No one should underestimate the importance of this single fact. Accountants have created a short term nirvana at the cost of a long term hell! But mostly they will try to get out before the ugliness.
Gold must be retained, and worthless paper substituted for gold debt wherever possible, to retain physical. Musical chairs with the sovereign wealth of nations; what a world we have created!

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:05 - ID#377196)
The central banks do control some gold in other countries but
not in the US . We divorced the Fed from this long ago. So who is on
the other side of these gold sales? I say governments all over the
world buying gold. IF the central banks of Europe etc don't get it back
so what. Their gov't does at a good price. And then begins a new
money system. Gone are the central banks in current form.

Just thought I would mix things up a bit and give another perspective.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:06 - ID#267344)
If I may offer a voice of dissent tonight...
The past two posting periods indicated a lot of people thing that the central banks control gold. They do not, I say. They compete just like the markets - and by that competition we will see the inevitable exposure of the truth. Gold rules. The CB with the most sound monetary policy wins.

I agree that gold is the enemy of currency. The concept of currency suggests a replacement of money with the illusion of money. It is in this way that a government betrays its people. But CB's understand what money is, and they hoard the hell out of it. Governments are about control - they seek to remove the power from their people and place it within their own control. Thus, the value of currency is based on the demand and supply of the perceived legitimacy of an illusion. Does that make any sense?

I think Europe and Japan are on to something. I have read in recent articles that they both seek stable exchange rates. They must realise that such ambitions are impossible to acheive without some common reference of comparison. That reference, my friends, is not confidence and not influence and definately not an illusion. That reference is gold. We shall see if they are intelligent enough to implement such a financial system. In some ways, I think that they will be forced to recreate a system based on gold due to the fact that the governments of the EU are decentalized. I think this will force them to practice sound monetary policy - at least until some central government seizes control.

The $US is exactly like a share in a corporation. In fact, it IS a share in a corporation. The thing is, the US is a bankrupt corporation. Once the illusion is exposed, confidence will be destroyed - kinda like pre-WWII Germany. It will have the option to print its way out of debt - but eventually this will be its demise.

I think that the EU wants to compete with the $US. I think they understand the inherent weakness in the $US. I think they will strike at the very core of that weakness - I think they will attempt to shatter the illusion. I think they are buying the physical. Regardless, any serious move in gold will not be dictated by the agreement of CB's but rather by the lack thereof.

One more little note: currency is a socialist invention. Gold/silver bonds/notes are completely different entities. Currency is control. Gold is freedom. Be free. Gotta go...


(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:13 - ID#411259)
..... Correction .....

I made a mistake earlier, actually two.

The first was the URL for the weekly PM review ( I posted the price page by mistake )

The correct location is:

The second mistake was to think I could drive five miles, park the car, and get in to see the second JJ show at 9pm. Its 9:20 now. Im not going to make it.


Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:13 - ID#377196)
Paper must be tendered yes. But the only thing the Federal Reserve
will give you in return is more paper. That is my whole point. Over
the years the Central Banking System all over the world has gone to
paper. It does not represent the wealth of a country. Its ONLY PAPER.
And they know this and have decoupled it from gold and are now using
papers last days to see how much they can buy at the cheapest price
before everyone wakes up. I mean the GOVERNMENTS NOT THE BANKS ARE

That is all, I am going to bed.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:20 - ID#430212)
Janpan's possible new prime minister............
Consensus overseas is the possibility that Obuchi may be appointed the new prime minister of Japan. Any thoughts on the effects this might have on the future prices of gold?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:23 - ID#43460)
Do not forsake me, oh my darling...
Does anyone debate the fact that the 1952 movie "High Noon", starring Gary Cooper was THE classic cowboy psychodrama of all time? Well IMHO this edition of the Drudge report may be the second line of the opening credits for the classic president flick of all times, the story of Clinton's final 100 days as prezz. Kind of like a remake of "High Noon" starring Don Knotts versus Eddie Murphy. Goodnight all. ( %-^] )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:25 - ID#373284)
Bufford, Namaste'...Hmmmmmmmmmmm................
Sir, please forgive me...if you have it in you...two quarts of Cuervo...a friend I have not seen in twenty...I forget nothing Sir...

goldbug@Hydro.CAM.ORG this then may be an answer to your previous can trust the GOLDBUG...this then is an honest source...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:34 - ID#411259)
..... Gold is $ .....

But $ are not gold.......

For anybody else who would like to argue the gold priced in dollars thingie, call around and ask for quotes. Call Finland. Call Switzerland. They may quote you a price in their own currency, but ask what would happen should that currency rise or fall against the dollar. The reply will be along the line of, "the price of gold will vary although it remains the same in dollars."

Before you spend time to do this, ask yourselves one question:

Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya pun.. ( sorry thats not the question )

How can Canada put a $310 US DOLLAR face value on the Mountie? Last I heard Canada had their own dollar to price things in. Yet the coin reads $310 US Dollars stamped right there in the face. Why does not the US sue Canada ( or at least annex it and get it over with ) for counterfeiting?

The answer is that gold is priced in dollars.

Any further debate will have to be with someone else. I have written thousands of words over the last several moths explaining this to people. Yet they keep coming back with "what if?".

Anything further I could say would be just repeating myself.


That whole annex thingie was to get a rise out of the Canadian members of this forum and was offered as humor. I like you guys as a separate country. If I ever had to make a quick getaway, I like the fact that the vast lands to the north not belong to my own Government. Oh CaanAda.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:37 - ID#411259)
..... T1 .....

I don't even know what namaste' means, yet I am jealous I never got one.

What does it take to get a gulp around here?

Do I have to be a goldbug?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:42 - ID#431200)
Von Finck received U.S. antitrust approval to acquire up to 24.99 percent of Homestake Mining Co. co
Wednesday July 15, 5:25 pm Eastern Time
Investor gets US okay to up Homestake stake
WASHINGTON, July 15 ( Reuters ) - German investor August von Finck said Wednesday he received U.S. antitrust approval to acquire up to 24.99 percent of Homestake Mining Co. common shares.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the investor said he was granted the clearance by the Federal Trade Commission and antitrust division of the Department of Justice on June 29.
Von Finck said he has requested a seat on Homestake's board of directors and has discussed with management the possibility of a second seat on the board of directors.
The investor said he currently holds 23,024,300 common shares or 10.9 percent of the outstanding common in Homestake, the oldest publicly listed U.S. gold mining company, for investment purposes.
Homestake is based in San Francisco, Calif.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:43 - ID#288349)
Why inflation is hidden
Had a horrible thought. The markets appear to be dominated either by securities ( bull market ) or commodities ( bear market ) .

The normal business cycle used to occur as a result of of excess dollars which would in turn result in inflation. Commodities prices would rise because of the relationship between notes and valuable goods became imbalanced.

At some point an emergency arose and some politician realized that this cycle could be altered by direct market intervention, at first by shorting gold as one of the principle indicators of inflation. Later, the next logical step is to start shorting ALL commodities and go long on paper investments.

Suddenly inflation doesn't exist anymore. The problem is that like a junkie the economy needs ever greater levels of intervention until finally the market becomes a perverted carnival of escalating stock values bearing no resemblance to reality such as have today.

PMs crash whenever the stock market starts to stall and fundamentals no longer make any difference. Someone please introduce me to the politician or Fed official who is going to reverse these policies. These guys have to play their hand to the bitter end. Desperate men do crazy things.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:49 - ID#187109)
( and a puff ) ya. and definitely Namast to ya.
good stuff on the price-o-gold in US$. It is good, eh? I hope it doesn't make us ( US citizens ) too arrogant to have gold priced this way. Our fine northern brethren give us great respect by stamping such evidence on one of their most beaUtiful coins. AGULP to them as well......and a puff.
now..........about those chicken bones......I prefer to dry them before tossing ;- )

yudaman... bone da chicken

.........JoanJett??!?? Hmmmmmmmmm......I had some dreams about her in my youth..........ohmy!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:51 - ID#401237)
drudgereport - Check it out!

The press is heating up, tomorrow a big day..maybe.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:51 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, NAMASTE' sheeeeeeeeeshhh.......
toast...buttered on all four sides...within all that is your kindness is my heart seeking to polish the inside of a christmas bulb...couple of goals scored pal...

tequila... the peyote...never scored a goal...fade now into the net...


(Thu Jul 16 1998 00:55 - ID#411259)
..... Dream Boy ....

I must admit I kinda had a thing for her too. She still looks good - but very, very, very tough even though she has gone to a blonde crewcut instead of the black crewcut she sported a decade ago. She looks like a shrunken Annie Lennox now. Speaking of which, I kinda' had a thing for her also. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Still don't know what namaste' means but thanks for the gulper.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:00 - ID#240288)
Sharks Circling the Waters

Free Republic is in an absolute feeding frenzy right now! There are stories of White House refusing to obey a court order on Secret Service testimony, and predictions of the imminent firing of Ken Starr. Go Gold!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:06 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmm...this then is for you and you'..............

...I am toast...couple of the great lawn and the protection of the children...I am now asleep...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:08 - ID#411259)
..... SS .....

I tend to think the Supreme Court will uphold the Whites Houses position on the SS agents this time around. If they decided such, I would agree. Laws are in place already that require a SS agent ( who is a law enforcement officer ) to report any crime they may see committed. Thats good enough for me.

Grilling the SS on screwing an intern or to have them report on conversations they may have overheard between Clinton and counsel will not bring this president down and I believe it would harm the office.

I cant stand Clinton and would love to see him stomped. But this whole SS thingie just sounds somehow un-American. I think Starr has pressed this one too far.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:14 - ID#286284)
@ All -- I am not sam!

Apologies for confusion. Must get handle switched. Can I request this simply via this forum?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:15 - ID#286284)
@RJ re forward sales & POG in $US only

Re forward sales: My point was that even if the mining co. _didn't_ have cash to cover forward sales, it might still be alright. Cash on hand isn't an issue.

Re POG in $US only: I generally agree with you. However, the fix is a little different than phoning up a dealer and getting a quote in your local currency. The fix represents a commitment to buy or sell as much as you got during a finite period of time. You can therefore go to the window, give 'em your gold ( pounds ) and they'll give you pounds ( gold ) without checking the US/pound cross rate. I agree that the pound fix is simply a converted $US fix but it nonetheless remains that dealers will swap gold for pounds with no regard for the $US/pound cross rate _after_ the fix is in. The same will probably be true for the Euro.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:18 - ID#411259)
..... T1 .....

I now understand
And would be honored to receive a namaste'
If ever I have earned it

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:18 - ID#401237)
RJ (..... SS .....)

The "SS" may soon be, if you get your wish.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:19 - ID#286234)
One egg, second floor patio, in a potted palm? Hmm... Are you sure it's a feisty Mockingbird and not a sweet, a peace-loving Mourning Dove? Well, if that's the case, in that situation, offering some bird seed might be OK.

FYI sam_A and sam are two different Kitcoites.

They are falling off the trees, all at the same time this year. Eating, cooking, freezing, and giving away plums, peaches, and apples, can't pick them up fast enough.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:22 - ID#411259)
..... OK .....

Sam I am
Says I am not sam
Seems the sams are not the same

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:31 - ID#411259)
..... sam .....

Smallish gray bird with very long tail feathers that tend to stand almost straight up when the bird is standing about on the top of a wall or some other perch. In flight, the tail feathers appear white and there is a white band in the middle of each wing that cannot be discerned when they are folded.

I am a city boy. I was told this was a Mockingbird but I havent had the time to look it up in an encyclopedia.

I shoulda reported the nest as a rumor or speculation.

"Tis no dove Im sure. Looks too much like a pigeon and I dislike pigeons. Any bird that has to do that head wobble thingie when they walk, will not procreate on my patio.

So What is it?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:31 - ID#206358) about mr.k?
Tokyo shares rally on speculation Kajiyama may
stand for PM

TOKYO ( AFX-ASIA ) - Share prices turned higher from midafternoon,
rallying on speculation that senior Liberal
Democratic party member Seiroku Kajiyama may stand for the prime
minister's position, brokers said.

At 1:45 pm the Nikkei 225 index was up 130.82 points at 16,744.96, the
high so far.

The Topix index was up 7.77 points at 1,283.08 with the September futures
ahead 180 points at 16,700.

"The strong possibility that Kajiyama will stand for the prime minister's
position pushed the yen higher, causing
a spill-over effect in stock index futures, which rallied, pulling the cash
market higher as well," one broker said.

"The market views it as positive if Kajiyama stands, but it is not totally clear
that he will."

Share prices showed modest gains overall, with the earlier strength seen in a
handfull of international blue chips
spilling over to the broader market, he said.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:34 - ID#162241)
RJ.... Canada's destiny? Annexed to the U.S.A.!!
From a Canadian.... there are many days, and many ways, that make Canadians feel that has already happened.

In many ways, Canada long ago gave up its ghost to the USA. It has become too easy to let the USA take the risks, define the rules etc, because we as Canadians have generally been able to enjoy the consequential benefits of their initiative without the inherent or apparent costs. But that complacency has had its consequence.

We are generally seen as milk toasts, ....but the US likes us ( at least the Educated ones ) because they can have us for free, and enjoy the benefit of not paying to educate us, while putting us to very productive work for their benefit. All they have to do is pay big bucks with a built in 45% premium. Look at the expanded green card limits recently put in place to accommodate this.

As far as our currency goes.. there isnt even a whimper from the Prime Minister when questioned on the matter!! What a sorry state! No hard backing, a huge debt, the federal Government skillfully unloading its debt to the provinces ( the peas under the pod game ) and when questioned about the falling dollar, ... a grin and a disjointed reply. Do we need monetary reform and accountability re the currency??? Think ahead, and you can see a future Canadian Government confiscating all the gold mines, and scrambling to re-stabilize the system without having to buy an ounce!!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:35 - ID#240288)
A Coded Message to Sam 1 and Sam 2

Note carefully the URL. "engr" is engineered, "uark"= University of Arkansas. "~nwm" stands for new world money. "eggs" is an obvious code word for Gold.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:36 - ID#285392)
BLOOPER and the Invesco European Fund
Would you please provide us with more information? Where to purchase, or a URL. When you say you have until 4AM to sell as a cushion how does that work? Where are you located as to time zone, east, mid, or west coast in the USA. I will watch for you reply. Thanks

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:39 - ID#284255)
NY City Mayor BLOCKS Y2K Disclosure
New York City faces the daunting task of checking 687 major computer systems
in 43 agencies. The cost of making them compliant will run anywhere from $100
million to $200 million. According to Joel Greenspan, chief of Mayor
Giuliani's Office of Operations, 234 systems have already been fixed and the
rest should be up to date by the end of this year. But, when state
comptroller H. Carl McCall sought to audit the city's Y2K efforts, Giuliani
blocked the investigation. McCall's audit of the state operations found that
"there is a real risk that services provided by agencies to the public will
be disrupted at or before the turn of the century unless much more effort and
resources are devoted to the Year 2000 problem." ================

Mayor Guiliani blocks the investigation. Gee, he must have a really good
reason for doing that. Wonder what it could be? Could it be that New York
City is doing so well that an audit would be a waste of time? Uh, nah. He
would be glad to show how well they were doing.

Don Scott lives in NYC. Maybe he could ask the Mayor why he blocked an audit
of the city's Y2K preparations.

Paul Milne

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:42 - ID#284255)
Food for thought???
1. Allan Greenspan has said that ( because of worldwide interdepencies )
99% or near worldwide compliance is not good enough. Its all or nothing
situation as related to y2k.

2. Both the GAO and Sen. Bennett have said that there is no way that all
federal agencies can complete their work by 12-31-99.

3. The Gartner group has stated that as many as 30% businesses worldwide
can not possibly be ready.

4. And yesterday Clinton has said that unless we fix the bug, we are
facing a possible meltdown. ( Clinton Warns Against Ignoring 2000
Computer Bug By Steve Holland
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton urged businesses to start
concentrating on ways to solve the looming Year 2000 computer meltdown
and avoid disruptions in everything from phone service to air travel.
"Any business that approaches the new year armed only with a bottle of
champagne and a noise maker is likely to have a very big hangover on New
Year's morning," Clinton said in a speech on the problem at the National
Academy of Sciences. )

So, 100% compliance is required + 100% compliance is impossible = What
Clinton said will happen if we dont fix it???

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:44 - ID#284255)
Bank runs - buy physical
Uh huh, and if there's a run on the banks, the fed will pump so much new
paper into circulation, the notes the credit card companies are holding will be
worthless. Remember, there doesn't have to *BE* a Y2K problem for a bank
run to take place, just the public perception that there *will* be a problem.
If the run happens early enough, you may be able to pay off your home loan well
before 12/31/99, and stop at McDonalds on the way home for a $75 hamburger.

As an FYI, my uncle is a bigwig for a PA bank. If his bank can't
meet certain Y2K requirements, they will be forced to sell out to a
bank that is Y2K compatible. The powers that be aren't going to let
the world come to an end, and least in this one aspect. All the banks
are doing their damnedest to get Y2K compliant before the final
deadline, or else they get swallowed. And no, I'm not sure what that
deadline is, or where those regulations came from. I believe it was
the federal reserve board, but I might be wrong.

Of course this assumes that they will be sold with enough time remaining
to convert ALL that data to the compliant banks data repository. If you
think that is a small task, I suggest you find someone who has done it
and whom you trust, and inquire. I think you'll be surprised ( mortified ) .

It's a bad idea to be in debt at any time. It leaves you at the mercy of
forces beyond your control. The actions of these forces are likely to be
more extreme during an economic crisis.

What economic crisis. Everythings gonna be awright ;- )

''Given the scope of the test, ( the results are ) not beyond belief,''
said Steven Hock, CEO of Triaxys Research, which studies the issue.
''I'm a little skeptical that there were no Year 2000-related glitches
at all.''
Me too.Why? It's a 2 week test. They tested 12/29/99 on Monday and 12/30/99 today. Let's wait until Thursday after they roll over to 1/1/00 to see if the Y2K glitches start showing up. Even then, if they don't have Y2K glitches, it doesn't prove everything's hunky-dory because this is a preliminary test. They could have lots more problems when they start testing more extensively.
It's good news they're testing. It will be good news if they don't find
any major Y2K glitches. It will be good news if they do, so they can
fix them. But it's still just a preliminary test. The real good news
will be if they pass the test on 1/4/00, the real 1/4/00.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:45 - ID#411259)
..... HighRise .....

As I posted that, I could see the SS thingie perhaps being read as something else. I was too lazy to go back and retype it though. I know your post was offered partly in jest, but do you really think the SS wants this fight? Do you think they even like or respect Clinton? My bet is no. These guys serve both parties and are career law enforcement officers - this is not the profile of a liberal Democrat. I do not put them in league with Clinton in this current resistance to the subpoenas. The case is the same but the motives, I believe, are vastly different. These guys will be working at the White House long after Clinton is gone. This is not a partisan issue. I buy the SS position that this would make their job more difficult. I dont like Willie, but I dont want him shot, I just want him to go home.

Besides assassinations are bad for business.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:45 - ID#286234)
What you have is the irrepressibly lovable mimic of car alarms at 3:15 am Mockingbird!;- )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:52 - ID#339212)
North American Palladium Ltd. (PDL.TO) NEWS

Property expansion and Progress report:

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:55 - ID#411259)
..... sam .....

I am pleased. I know the mocking portion of the name is due to their accuracy in repeating sounds and songs, but when you read the word another way, mocking takes on a very subversive meaning. Not that my birdie ( not the golf kind, never got one of those, but then again, I dont play. Since this is so, I should just lie about birdies and eagles and claim a plethora to my credit. I used to caddie as a kid, so I could talk the talk and sound convincing, yes? ) is subversive, but there is a very clever glint in her eye and I think she knows exactly how the world works.

I prefer to think that the M bird choose my Sago for its exceptional beauty, or maybe choose me because she senses there is nothing to fear, or maybe she got lost in the fog and now that things have cleared she is even now hunting up new digs.

Who has these answers?

Not I.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:56 - ID#287186)
On Windows taking over the World
Mtn Bear, BillD, & all: My professional computer user & tech position:
Microsoft's Operating System and Applications divisions should be split
into two separate companies with no overlapping personnel or directors.
Otherwise there is no end in sight for Microsoft to eventually roll everything including the kitchen sink into it's OS and freeze out all
competitors' products with tricks as in the article you refer us to:

RE: Windows 98 - I would not be surprised if Microsoft is purposely shipping a buggy, non-Y2K compliant, competitor-sabotaging, pain-in-the-butt Windows 98 in order to convince customers to switch to Windows NT. It is a known fact among the tech crowd that Windows 98 is the last of its breed. There will be no Windows 2000+. There may be an NT lite for sub-computers.

RE: My idea of a Millenium Gold Coin with Gates' mug on one side - it should be the Windows logo on the other side. The new coin of the realm.
Yes? Not! That particular Caesar I do not wish to render more to if I can help it.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 01:59 - ID#286234)
What should we do about Auric?
Is he he hee getting too close to

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:01 - ID#411259)
..... Sam_A .....

I will concede your last point

As you have conceded my others

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:02 - ID#240288)
Drudge Scooping the Big Boys Again?

Have they slept through another earthquake?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:05 - ID#286234)
You a lucky guy. I would give a gold coin to have a Mockingbird nest in my yard. I would give two gold goins to have a Scrub Jay nest in my yard. Namaste'

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:07 - ID#401237)

I agree, this is a very thin line Ken S is walking.
Trying to get the testimony to prove the crime appears to be rather difficult when the guilty party controls the SS, Justice department, many of the appeals courts, etc.

I have a very good friend who was a SS agent, he has always been very closed mouth as to what he witnessed at the White House. Even when under the influence ( drunk ) .

He was guarding the Kenedy children when JFK got hit. He did not like LBJ. He said that JFK treated the SS with respect, LBJ treated them like dirt.

Clinton is destroying the presidency, may be part of the plan...who knows? The man and everyone around him is real trash for sure.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:09 - ID#287186)
Highrise & Mac user - re Apple Computer and the urls Highrise posted
All last winter I had a running and occassionally heated argument with a local tech stock trader who does not own a computer and whose views of computers comes only from their stock evaluations. The guy has no concept of PCs vs MACs. He berated me for being pro-Mac. My fundamental argument that I beat him with was that people who want to get things done and not diddle with DLLs - these productivity/deadline oriented folks buy Macs if they know better. That I use Macs because I don't have the time or patience to be a PC mechanic ( though I can and have ) . He could not see it cuz he didn't know what I was talking about. He looked no further than stock price and took glee in its descent. He shorted the heck out of Apple. He has not talked to me for the last few months. :- ) )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:19 - ID#207145)
Janet Waco
Is a scuzzy , ugly wretched wench. uuuh!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:28 - ID#207145)
Snow Bird,
I live in the Eastern Standard time zone. East coast of U.S. European markets close by 11;o'clock or so in the AM. So they can't react to Wall Street, should a crash, or a bad day, take place. That day for Europe is over. If the market crached, they couldn't react until the next day. I could get out by close of business on said day without incurring a "bad influence " loss in Europe as they would have been closed for several hours. I exit gracefully. The next day Europe reacts to the down side, but that's OK., I'm out.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:30 - ID#401237)

I think tomorrow that I am going to wish I still had my Apple stock.

I took the money I made on Apple and bought Gold and Mining Stocks.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:31 - ID#287186)
JTF - no offense taken re; fried squirrels and blackouts
A few years back our local college lost power when a squirrel got into the transformer box. Not only lights out but the surge fried a lot of computers - which were not adequately protected.
Those urls on Squirrels are just the beginning.
I didn't realize there was a whole raft of such humorous web activity.
Seems the squirrels have drawn some fire

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:37 - ID#207145)
Snowbird, re Invesco European Fund
1-800-424-8085 will get you Invesco Funds Group. No Load,but with a hated 12b1 fee of .25. The fund was up 40% last time i calculated. It is one of the top 4 funds dealing with Europe. Please consider buying any fund or stock folly right now. I highly recommend waiting until November 1st. I believe you will be reading about bad things out of all stock markets before 10 days pass.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:41 - ID#207145)
I am within 24 hrs of averaging out of Europe and into Utilities in the same ( Invesco ) fund family. I hate to pay commisions as I am in and out a great deal.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:47 - ID#207145)
3rd quarter profits
Will be so bad, they could start a bear market all by themselves. Forth quarter strength in the economy will force intrest rates up. This combination will set into movement a Bear Market which will last many month, well into 2000. Then we will start another momentous Bull market.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:50 - ID#207145)
One year return: Utilities Fund
45% Isnt that fantastic for a safe place to hide ( untill 4th qtr ) .

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:55 - ID#411259)
..... Wee Hours-O-The Morn Blather .....

Was looking in the archives and came across this loony piece from a year ago today. Seems there was a KGB operative posting on this site last year ( before registration when one could use any handle he/she wished ) and I think I now know who that despicable ( but able ) spy is.. Lights go out. Shots in the dark..

Where was I? Oh yeah, seems the Russians had a bit of a problem shipping PGMs last year too, although for a completely different reason. The problem was not inventories or government decrees, but a lousy broken carburetor on a 1940s era Lend Lease Truck filled with the 1997 palladium shipments headed for Japan.

This rotten KGB swine used this forum to solicit the procurement of a new "Karburator" to fix the truck and deliver the PGMs. With plenty of gleeful jokes about western folks and our way of living:

KGB ( @In Hiding ) :
Anyvone kno vhere kan get karburator for 1942 Dodge Lend Lease truk? RJ and many PMG kustomers broke ven MIG "krash" in Urals. Platinum price go up. Den ve vait two veeks, start sirch party, "find" platinum in Urals. Price go down, ve mak more. How you like? KGB sharp like fox! How KGB know RJ broke???? His Orange Kounty vas broke in 1994, but ve all know dat. Ve gif him Karburator free, ven he lease, Lend Lease Truk.

I could not argue with the KGB, their intel was too good, they had the goods on me. I shouda known that Russian blonde was too easy. But the outrage boiled and payback was sweet:


This may be my last post as Ill probably need to hock the computer to raise some quick cash. Found out today that my wild speculating has finally come home to roost and, as Orange County before me, I have lost it all. Serves me right, slinging trades around like dollar chips at a cheap casino, cocksure arbitrages over early morning cappuccino, snorting at all I read in the WSJ because I knew it all two days earlier, and what the hell do those guys know about the real world markets anyway?

Yes, life comes with a price and the tag is a frightening read when your wallet is suddenly gone and your not sure just who the pickpocket is, but that bastard at the next table, grinning and chatting without a care, looks a little bit too smug to be paying for all those croissants and four dollar coffees with his own money.

There is only one way to handle this sort of sociopathic slime. I waited until the coffee went to work on his kidneys and then I followed him into the mens room. I made believe that I was tying my shoe, but instead slipped off one of my Johnson Murphy crocodile penny loafers, the last I may ever own, and bashed him on the back of the head as he stood at the urinal. A quick pat down failed to produce my missing wallet, when I suddenly realized my wallet wasnt gone at all, just my lifes work in an orgy of gold shorts and unrestrained fast trades. This was no pickpocket, just a hapless innocent, caught in the crossfire of a beaten broker on a loosing binge and simple circumstance of fate.

I thought, to hell with it, its not my fault the market moved against me; all those years, my close friend and trusted partner. I never saw it coming, when it turned on me like a junkyard Doberman that has you up against the chain link fence, just waiting for you to try to climb so it can take a five pound hunk of flesh and Levis from your fleeing ass. These markets blow crueler than any hurricane wind and before you know it, youre just another piece of debris, like the plywood, trees, and mobile homes tossed about when one of those unpredictable Atlantic storms rips a swath across Florida, gathers strength as it comes roaring in off the warm Gulf waters, and it hits one of those small burgs that hasnt seen a storm with a name since Nineteen-ought-Six.

I felt as battered and abandoned as I watched the horrific turnaround in gold this week. Before I knew what happened, I was living a nightmare. Gold, heretofore so pathetic and weak, stopped its grim slide and, with a whipsaw turnaround, blitzkrieged through all resistance, leaving me holding a mountain of uncovered shorts. It wasnt long before the hordes began gathering outside. All those, who sent me Christmas cards and smoked Alaskan salmon when profits where riding high, where now milling about the parking lot outside my office. I could hear the start of a menacing chant rising from the asphalt as the throngs began breaking down doors and taking hostages. I always suspected it would end like this, so I used the market meltdown security exit - a kind of "bat pole" from the top floor trading offices to a subterranean passage leading to a nearby mini mall of bagel and coffee shops.

It was here I found myself, kneeling over a dazed and battered pickpocket writhing in a puddle of his own urine. To hell with them all, I thought as I grabbed his wallet and Rolex and started rifling through his pockets for more loot. In his inside suit pocket, I found a fat envelope with unintelligible letters written in bold red ink across the front. I couldnt make out the writing, but the lettering looked almost English but with some of the letters written backwards, like the first spellings of a preschooler. With a start, I realized these were Cyrillic characters. I put the envelope aside and began to search through his wallet. Beneath his California driver license was another laminated card bearing the same face as the barely conscious man at my feet. The writing was definitely Russian and my blood grew cold as I read the words that I thought had died with the cold war: Komitet Gosudarstvenno Bezopasnosti, This bastard was KGB!

The form at my feet began to stir but I soon stilled all movement with a vicious kick to the back of his neck and a couple more at the base of the spine for good measure. Thatll teach the son of a bitch to pick my pocket! Who do these Russians think they are? Dont they know its over and we won? I savagely ripped open the fat envelope and dozens of hundred dollar bills fell over the huddled body at my feet. I gathered up the cash and noticed what looked like a map on a small white piece of paper hidden amongst the bills.

I moved closer to the light and found, to my surprise, the words on the paper were in English! It was a map, with directions to a midnight meeting, where apparently there would be an exchange of cash and platinum bars, for something called a Karburator. The note detailed the location of several hundred thousand ounces of platinum that was supposed to be picked up just prior to the clandestine exchange.

I laughed with spiteful glee as I stuffed the cash in my pockets. I checked the Russian bastards Rolex and saw there would be ample time to rent a truck and transport the platinum before this looser on the floor came to and either fled or showed up at the meeting with lame excuses of bathroom skullduggery. Ill have to rent a storage garage, to keep the bars of metal in temporarily, better get several, spread the stuff around. It wouldnt do to open the storage door and find my platinum was gone before I could put my plan into action. It might take me a week or two to convert the bars into tradable cash, not all of it, but enough to start laying in new gold shorts. Let it keep going up, Ive got enough resources now to keep putting in shorts even if gold rose to $750 - $800. It just has to turn around sooner or later. The big bear will claw out the poor bulls eyes leaving it to stumble blindly into an open and ravenous pit. I smiled happily as I left the coffee shop, and began to whistle a little ditty as I hailed a cab. RJ is Back!


This has two more components and no end. No resolution at all. Like one of the Monty Python skits that ends right in the middle of a sent..

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:56 - ID#207145)
Scary October
Rising oil prices, rising gold prices. Terrible profit reports, and next mont is the election. Allan Greenspan what ever will he do? Maybe raise in anticipation. Put it off another month. Not in December. Decisions, decisions.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 02:56 - ID#240266)
One of three things will happen with this Y2K thing.
First:There really is a problem and all kinds of mayhem will
follow;Second:There is only the perception of a problem and
all kinds of mayhem will follow;Third any combination of the above!
will cause mayhem.
As per Sharefin's excellent contributions to this forum
I'm getting ready.I hope that after the disruption this will
cause we can still about sometime in 03.
Happy Trading!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:04 - ID#207145)
This Stock Market Rally
Is almost over. I'm calling next thursday. The Asian thing is due again...Third leg. Then China will do its thing. Scary September, but October is going to be spine-tingling. When I have to exit Utilities early in the 4th quarter. I will be forced into gold. I will simply go where i have to go.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:10 - ID#335379)
Hello RJ
I very much apriciate your posts but do not drink often enough to offer a gulp to ya.Heres a GULP to Ya! We don't have to be gold bugs!
I use my second story porch to protect my cats from wild wolves/ foxes/ mountain lions. Around here cats are finger food for the wildlife!

Nicodemus; still searching for the truth about gold and other things

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:14 - ID#207145)
There is a natural progression
to investments. The last investment before cash is gold. When tou get pushed out of bonds, next is GOLD. It is coming. As I see higher rates in 4th quarter, and I seem to be a lone voice in the darkness. A contrarian in the woodpile. Shocker of all shockers, higher rates. Oil, and Gold making people big money. Stag flation. Even AG is screwed.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:20 - ID#269207)
@ nicodemous
Where is that porch at, and I thought you was a runnin a land yatch?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:28 - ID#335379)
Hello Dave, I was runnin a land barge, Still am just did 4k= miles in 10 days
But got a new house with a fifty mile view of the CA/NV Sierras, Trying to sell coach.
New deck is 22 feet off the gronud, no stairs from outside, kinda like a 900SF balcony, cats loveit I love it Can sleep under the stars and not worry about getting eaten!
Nicodemu: Still trying to sell my Beaver Marquis for only 290 1oz maples.
Give me a buzZ if you know someone who wants a real nice coach!
Oh Bart this is gold related, coach is gold with golden oak, gold carpet located in the gold country....: )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:38 - ID#269207)
@Nicodemus, well sounds real nice, and been watchin your backtrail
to see how much gold you was stringin behind that Armada class rig, but panned no gold in your wake : ) ....howsomever, though high 22 feet might be, them cats better head inside you hear one lil HOOT...cause sure as I am a sittin here, I can see pussy pie all over that ol owl's face when he goes bye......

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:45 - ID#335379)
spinomatic 5000, turns lies to truth in just 60 minutes!!!
Hello All:
Forgot to mention a broadcast on the ron owens radio show with the chief editor of Money Ragazine.
Pe and E's of 20 really aren't so high and are still getable bargains compared to stocks with a PE of 29. Felgercarb!
"we have the numbers to prove that everything is OK, Ubemployment, low inflation, Strong economy etc." "Asia will be a major concern but there crisis is both a detriment and a benafit to the USA economy." IS that to be interpreted in doublespeak? O in short-term speak.
This guy is an editor HMMMMMM.
Must be time to lure the last straglers into the Ponzi scheme.
Nicodemus, Still looking for the truth.
Sam I know I siad goodnight awhile ago, eyelids at half mast

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:46 - ID#430212)
October '98
Does history repeat itself? Let's see what happens this October........

(Thu Jul 16 1998 03:53 - ID#335379)
HEllo Dave: THanks for the warning so far no big owls, cats are around 14pounds
A little heavy for flight.
Love your coment, that must be what they ment by Class "A" coach, ( Armada class )
Also liked a few new wordisms learned today, "Lamestream media"
Right up there with someones comment on the inevitble dow tumbling down,,
"we are the Borg, Resistance is futile, Prepare to have your asslaminated"
and of course "Spinomatic 5000"

Nicodemus, wanting to shout some truth from the rooftops, or at least from the balcony

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:01 - ID#286234)
A real no brainer, firearms should be banned from houses of worship. Yeah, right. Another obvious one, National Wildlife Refuges are there to protect wildlife, so firearms should be banned at NWRs too!

Sorry, gotta get a duck stamp, then I'm on my way back to Lurkerton.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:02 - ID#430212)
JIN This one is for you........

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:03 - ID#403335)
Latest on Secret Service
WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton's bodyguards could testify before Kenneth Starr's grand jury as early as today, as Linda Tripp is scheduled to make her sixth appearance before the panel. A legal battle over whether Clinton's security detail should testify in the White House sex scandal inquiry flared into open political warfare after the chief of Clinton's security detail received a subpoena from the independent counsel's office. Government lawyers appeared at the federal courthouse for a 50-minute closed hearing before chief U.S. District Judge Norma Holloway Johnson yesterday in an apparent bid to challenge Starr's action. But the judge reportedly rejected the administration's motion.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:04 - ID#286234)
Nico, Dave, all..
This time it really is... Good night.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:19 - ID#403335)
Asia Washes Ashore

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:20 - ID#269207)
@Never did see Owl packin a suitcase.......
but seen em followin close behind.... to help unpack..... should the chance to help ever present itself...he'll help ol puss get off his boots

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:47 - ID#432148)
Pros and cons on the Market

(Thu Jul 16 1998 04:54 - ID#255284)
from your last link:

" the drag on U.S. production from a mountain of unsold goods and a widening trade deficit may have been enough to cause a decline in economic output, as measured by the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in theApril-June period."

Now, with the US$ soaring, rationally, with just the right kind of uberance, who, I wonder, is gonna buy that "mountain of unsold goods"

I sure would like to know,with just in time inventory control, how there comes to be a "mountains of unsold goods" in the US.

Downunder,we are becoming used to seeing "mountains of unsold goods" in the form of Asian gee-gaws, plaster of paris ticky-tacky figurines cutesy-pie Nick Nacks ( How's it going, Nick@Nack? ) a mountain of plastic dross spewing out of Chinese factories finding its way to the shops at NZ$1-2 each.

Anyone whose still reading this is probably saying, "Now, just wait one cotton-pickin' minute thar, aurator, you said they'll accept Noo zilund dollars for their ersatz kitsche godwattery?"

Old salty replies: "Jes goes to show how desperate things have really got in Nasia, they'll even take noo zilund thalers..."

man, has it been raining!!!Never has more rain fallen, since records began. Anyone got an Ark?

cocktail desperado


Heed not the infidels. Your point of view from Thailand is needed here. Thank you.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 05:14 - ID#255284)
They still produce gold downunder. Some of it gets talked about....
Macraes Mining in N Otago ( Not too far from Gabriel's Gully ) plans capital expenditure to increase recovery rates second phase of increasing production delayed

Otter goldmines reports on its share in Martha Hill, Coromandel, amongst other interests. Martha Hill has been bogged down by bad planning, especially a tailings dam that has been leaking nasties into the beautiful Coromandel peninsular, ungood news there.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 05:27 - ID#340344)
Hello, Aurator...And namaste' to you
I enjoy learning about Thailand, and follow the SET there.
My son sometimes lives and works there. He recently
ballayed down the side of the 60-story building in Bangkok.
I like the country a lot. One of these days I will invest
some money in agriculture-related companies there.

What I was voicing objection to was the apparent connecting
up of misc events with his favorite website. IMO, thinly
veiled. But heck, the first time he posted that URL, I not
only checked it out, but bookmarked it. And then, I wanted to
see a picture of that which he spoke, when he asked does
anyone have a million dollars, or some such. But the URL just
went to his site, as I recall. But no biggee.
N.B. I really liked the URL of the Scottish place listed for
sale on the Gold Beagle site. I pored over it for an hour and
left it on, for my wife to see in the a.m.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 05:46 - ID#252391)
Hello PD
Palladium seems to be up its old tricks if the quotation here on Kitco are correct. Does anybody else see a lower price than up $33 at $320.
Plat up $12.

The beginning of the funds' change of direction?

I'd say if the prices in NY confirm it's a wake up call.

Dow 10.000 before Gold 315? I don't know how they keep it up. Find a picture of the A/D line - looks bearish.

Look at the weekly chart of the XAU see a three point, three year trend line around the 86 area, and the trend is down.

A point is being reached where the extremns in valuation stocks vs. Gold are being reached. Plat and PD are leading the metals out of this hole.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 06:21 - ID#185448)

(Thu Jul 16 1998 06:27 - ID#401460)
Squirrell - Apple

I just heard on CNBC that Apple was up 4 pts in after hours trading last night.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 06:53 - ID#29048)
Sanctions on India and Pakistan weakened
Asian markets up, yen up and pms up!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 06:54 - ID#29048)
Gold higher in Europe as palladium climbs again

(Thu Jul 16 1998 06:55 - ID#248170)
This URL is only for you !

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:06 - ID#253246)
anyone astro ****what does hw mean by "grand cross"

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:06 - ID#252391)
Breakout, breakdown
Don't look know but PD is breaking out of a trading range; PT is extending after a consolidation, the dollar index and the long bond are breaking down.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:11 - ID#333126)
RJ (interesting post @02:55)
good read from the past ...

and interesting story. hmm.... hehe... you get too bored around your workplace don't you?

don't suppose the great RJ will ever find himself massively short gold when the price spikes up.... will this ever happen?


happy trading!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:20 - ID#248180)
London Markets
Commodities: Gold higher on yen strength; palladium rises on export delays
Date: 16 Jul 1998 11:32:44
Service: AFX

LONDON ( AFX ) - Gold rose in early trade as the yen continued to make gains
against the dollar after former chief cabinet secretary Seiroku Kajiyama said he
may stand for the Japanese premiership, dealers said.

PRECIOUS METALS ( Spot prices relative to previous London close )

Price ( usd/oz )

Gold 294.50 up 1.50
Platinum 392.00 up 9.00
Palladium 325.00 up 25.00
Silver 5.33 up 0.02

They added it is believed that he will launch more aggressive economic
measures than Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, who is expected to stand for the
post, but analysts warned that although Kajiyama is quite strong on reforms, the
outlook for Japan remains uncertain.
The Australian dollar and the South African Rand made ground on the back of
a stronger yen, reducing the possibility of further producer hedge sales and
allowing prices to rise, dealers said.
According to Macquarie Bank precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi: "Gold
prices are continuing the upward momentum supported by the yen's recovery, but
the market is likely to run into technical resistance at the 295 usd level".
He added "demand in Asia is still poor so speculative selling targets are
likely to keep a lid on prices at around the 298 to 300 usd level, and with the
threat of central bank gold sales later this year prices may not have much more
upside potential".
Among the platinum group metals, palladium rose sharply after Russia said
shipments of the metal are unlikely to restart this month leaving car and
electronic manafacturers in short supply, dealers said.
They added political upheavals are delaying the restart of palladium exports
with Russia deciding to sell on the spot market instead of signing long-term
delivery contracts.

OIL ( Prices relative to prevous close on IPE ) :

Brent crude ( usd/barrel ) Aug 12.88 dn 0.05
Sep 13.23 dn 0.10

Gasoil ( usd/tonne ) Aug 119.00 dn 1.25
Sep 122.00 dn 1.50

Brent futures fell in thin trade with no fresh news to increase trading
activity, dealers said.
They added the expiry of the near month futures contract was generating
moderate volume this morning as many producers continued to liquidate their
According to Credit Lyonnais Rouse oil broker Philip Oxley: "August Brent
expires tonight so most of the volume is trading in the front month, but there
is little to talk of in the way of news".
Dealers said the market is shrugging off the lingering threat of strike
action within Venezuela's oil and reports that the U.N. oil-for-food deal with
Iraq could be hampered by serious problems over the "humanitarian initiative",
according to U.N. officials.

BASE METALS ( Three-month contract prices relative to previous kerb close )

Price ( usd/tonne ) LME warehouse stocks ( tonnes )
Copper 1,680 up 7 246,825 up 150
Lead 542 up 3 105,600 up 1,575
Zinc 1,073 up 5 382,425 dn 1,025
Tin 5,410 dn 80 6,135 up 490
Aluminium 1,325 up 15 501,825 dn 750
Nickel 4,370 up 40 60,138 up 48

Copper rose in early trade as the yen strengthened against the dollar making
the dollar-priced metal more attractive to Asian investors, dealers said.
They added optimism in Japan over the successor to Hashimoto has sparked a
recovery in the yen, prompting many major investment funds to buy copper as the
overdue corrective bounce continues to find support.
According to Brandeis base metals analyst Robin Bhar: "The fundamental
picture is still negative but the market is being lead by technicals with the
recovery of the yen initiating a mass of speculative short-covering".
He added "although the copper market still appears to be in deficit,
proposed production increases will lead to over supply by the third quarter".
Dealers said the rise in prices could accelerate if the big hedge are forced
into covering their short positions, citing key technical resistance at the
1,750 usd level.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:22 - ID#333126)
a great article on how Micro$oft is taking over the world

( translated from the original French )

a great read. highly recommended.

especially the bits about the "MS tax" and the part on "TechnoCretins"


anyway, my stomach calls. time for a snack. hmm... low cash ( maybe I should have spent that money for that gold coin otherwise... ) ... maybe McDonald's ...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:29 - ID#35571)
High Noon
From RLM's post ( asia washes ashore ) . Here are some of the lines to read between.

"In the first quarter, the growth we were getting was really an aberration," said economist James Glassman of Chase Manhattan Bank in New York. "The shock from Asia was there but we weren't feeling it" because production continued to rise with the goods going into inventories rather than being sold.

But none had anticipated the enormous cutbacks signaled by the April and May figures.

"As of this report, second-quarter GDP growth could be as low as zero," predicted economist Stan Shipley of Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York.

However, a period of very slow growth  Chase Manhattan's forecast is for gains of less than 1 percent between now and the end of the year  could also hurt corporate profits and precipitate a decline in stock prices.

Falling stock prices, in turn, could cause American households to slow their rapid rise in spending for new homes, new vehicles, clothing, vacations and the like. That spending, which rose at an annual rate of 6 percent, has been bolstered by the so-called wealth effect generated by the huge gains in stock prices of recent years, according to many economists. As the value of their investments grow, consumers feel wealthier and are therefore more willing to buy more.

"It sounds like this is all abstract, an accounting exercise," Glassman said. "But it's not abstract, and the impact is being felt. Growth is slowing and it will catch a lot of people off guard."

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:43 - ID#35571)

An eclipse in August '99 is easily the worst in centuries - "the eclipse to end all eclipses" according to some - a grand cross pattern of the malefics ( unfortunate planets ) . So 2000 looks serious.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 07:58 - ID#411440)
@ ALL RE LEASE RATES: one month gold lease rates are 1.01%, unchanged
from yesterday, while 1 year lease rates are 1.81%. These are
very low, in fact one must go back over 1 year to find rates
as cheap as this. If one assumes that the near term bottom is
about 288 then we have 295-288 = 8 / 295 X 100 = 2.7% as a
potential short return, add the forward rate for investing in
3 month bills and we get 2.7 + 4.5 = 7.2% return on investment.
Commissions would reduce this, but the gold carry is becoming
very profitable again anywhere above a POG of 295.

Expect a flurry of short selling of gold above 295, or as
metal market experts like to say, 'resistance' above 295.
This resistance is all lease rate generated, and we have
seen that without the pressure of shorting using borrowed
CB gold, that supply and demand fundamentals caused a firming
of the POG over the past 5 days.

If the CBs are using cheap lease rates to drop the POG on the
spot market, and then are buying gold at these prices to add
to their reserves, we have the ironic situation of CBs
manipulating prices down so that they can buy back their own
gold. This leaves the CBs with the following:

repurchased gold, and an IOU for the leased gold plus the
interest in gold of 1%. The catch is, in the event of a
gold bull, most of those IOUs are going to be worthless and
they won't be getting their 1% either! If the short overhang
is 8000 tonnes, there is no way it can be covered. The leases
will be in default.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:07 - ID#432157)
I can't believe MY EYES ALL the METALS are UP-YES????

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:15 - ID#35571)
Discounting reality
The current status of the market, climbing ever higher as earnings and other factors deteriorate, is not unique. Many market crashes are preceded by just a phase just before their demise.

Unemployment is down and the baby boomers continue to pump cash into the funds. Also many fund managers are chartists and follow such dictums as "follow the trend, the trend is your friend". Trends, just before a downturn are always up. Trends and charts are a view of past history. So the market has a kind of inertia. As sales decline companies continue to pump output into inventories. As profits fail to be made by production companies start "making money" by investing in the markets and by floating new stock issues. Even though no moeny is coming in the front door their bottom line looks good because their portfolios look good.

The Titanic is headed for the iceberg and even if there was someone at the helm to turn the wheel it is too late.

How long can such an excursion into fantasia last?

These final phases can go on for months, and this one has already. It will continue untill either 1 ) unemployment starts rising drasitcally as manufacturing plants are forced to cut back due to excess inventory and lack of sales thus putting large numbers of those baby boomers out of work and in a position where they must start withdrawing rather than "investing", or 2 ) The funds for some some strange reason finally see the writing on the wall and go into panic mode, or 3 ) asian economies start improving to the point where they want their flight money back, or
4 ) companies start going bankrupt making their stock worthless.

What will be the impact on gold?

GOld does not go up or down because of levels in the stock market. It is effected by the value of the dollar. So the impact will depend upon what reason the market finally crashes and what the people controlling monetary policy do about it. The factors that most closely affect gold are the same ones which most closely affect bonds and currency rates. The gold, bond, and currency markets follow a different drummer than the more emotional equities markets.

So even though the Titanic is about to hit the berg, it does not neccessarily mean ther will be and immediate benefit to gold or gold stocks. There could be an adverse effect since many will have less "wealth" to buy gold with. ( If they had seen it coming in time to sell their stocks they might have ) , or there could be a beneficial effect from flight money, or an apparent effect due to inflationary attempts to jump start the economy ( apparent because an increase in gold dollar prices might not be an increase in general buying power as the dollar gets weaker--of course, it's still better than just holding dollars ) .

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:17 - ID#252391)
I don't get it
A couple of hours ago on this board a post refers the reader to a yahoo story about today's gold trading. Lease rates were noted at being very low - .77% for three month's lease. The desire to lease was said to be quite strong.

If the demad to lease was strong wouldn't that have an upward effect on the lease rate, or is the reality that the desire to lease is not as strong as the desire of certain parites to see leasors come in and lease the metal for sale thus putting preasure on the gold price.

That's how I read it. The Central banks or who ever has gold to lease is letting out at very attractive rates to encourage the practice of leasing the gold and selling it into the market, taking the cash and earning on it the difference between the very low lease rate and whatever other return can be made on it.

The gold stays on the books as an asset to the party offering the lease. But who would offer such attractive lease rates, receiving so little for letting out the gold unless they were really strapped for cash or had other reasons to do so?.

Seems like a dangerous game being played for small returns by the party leasing out, particularly if there is a gold price spurt and the party who leased the gold and sold it can't get back the gold out of the market to return the lease without defaulting.

One would almost think there is collusion between the two parties to the lease agreement whereby the party leasing out the gold agrees to hold down the price ( by leasing more as necessary ) and making a sale of a call to the leasing out party so that he has price protection. In this way the
the party leasing out the gold doesn't benefit from the price appreciation but and would take a loss on the transaction equal to the lease rate received plus the cost of the call sold less the value of the appreciation of gold above the calls strike price.

Of course if you could control the gold price you wouldn't let it get above the strike price- say about $315. It would be quite an encouragement knowing the enity on the other side of the transaction was as interested as I, ( the party leasing the silver, seling it into the market, investing it safely, otherwise ) in seeing the price be stable or decline slightly.

Does this make sense to anybody????

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:19 - ID#427357)

Japan HAS ENJOYED an increasing trade surplus and has been the largest
net capital provider ( creditor ) to the world. Both of these factors SHOULD HAVE CAUSED the value of the Yen to increase, not decrease as we have all witnessed. Something has produced this anomaly.

Two factors are causing abnormal monetary and financial conditions in the Land of the Setting Sun: Yen-Carry Trade and the Gold-Carry Trade. Mr. Kutyn provides a clear explanation of both phenomenon.

Considering the deep doo-doo of the Nippon economy, teetering bank system, crumbling Yen, breaking confusion in its government, reigning pessimism and total lack of confidence on the part of the Japanese public, Kutyn believes no measure ( however draconian ) could or would be too drastic to wrench Japan from the very brink of the abyss. And not a few experts tend to agree that as the EAST GOES... SO GOES THE WEST.

Mr. Kutyn presents a thought-provoking hypothetical which contemplates:
"IF JAPAN BACKED THE YEN WITH GOLD... The Far-Eastern economic analyst's hypothetical case situation is both feasible and plausible. The ramifications quite distrurbing.

His considerations are found at the following website. Per custom it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" in the URL before pasting it to the Internet locator.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:26 - ID#269231)
re cross
"a cross from a faith before Jesus came" thanks heaps sarah

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:31 - ID#259400)
Jims, I don't understand the whole leasing thing either. It makes no sense. I can't see who is benefiting other than the shorts. Here is a copy of a note I posted last night. Anyone have any insight into who benefits from driving the price of gold down?

I am not knowledgeable about central banks and how they operate but I have one whale of a hard time seeing how they profit by it if they are in fact doing what everyone says they are doing. I don't have a calculator handy but If I understand the story correctly it goes something like this. I am a central bank president and I have umpteen ounces of gold in my vaults worth $400 and ounce. I start lending it out at dirt cheap lease rates so that I can drive the price down to $300 an ounce and hold it there. I have just reduced the value of my stockpile of assets by 25%. The mining companies I have no problem understanding. They make a future sale now which gives them current cash flow. They must assume the price of gold will be cheaper in the future or they wouldn't do it. On the other hand they may just simply need the cash now. In any event a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The shorts are just doing their job as an investor. Had I been as knowledgeable about gold a couple of years back as I am now I would have shorted it too. In fact if we get a little summer rally before October I will be tempted to go short myself. At this point in time I just can't bring myself to believe the central banks are
deliberately reducing the value of their own reserves. The mining companies and the shorts are just doing what they think best.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 08:54 - ID#252391)
Great Kunyn piece.
Take a read of the Kunyn piece referenced a few posts below.

It will be very interesting to see the strenght of the bear push between 295 and 300 and on silver at 5.40-5.50. Hard to perdict but I'd say watch the dollar index which is falling and the bonds which look like they are breaking down.

I'll be surprised if the Dow doesn't end up getting hit with some sizable sell programs today.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:04 - ID#427357)

Bill2j - " I don't understand the whole leasing thing either. It makes no sense. I can't see who is benefiting other than the shorts. Here is a copy of a note I posted last night. Anyone have any insight into who benefits from driving the price of gold down?

IMHO Ted Butler is the Internet's reigning authority on Precious Metals Leasing. His knowledge and insights into this practice are truly encyclopedic. May I respectfully suggest you read his numerous postings - most of which deal with Gold & Silver Loans ( leasing ) .

To read his several reports on the subject it's necessary to delete the
extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the following
URL to your Internet locator:

Lurker 777
(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:05 - ID#317247)
I owned a 94 Grand Marquis and sold it for 560 1 oz. Phillies last year. What a beautiful sight that Beaver was. 40ft W/3176 Cat, Jake, Hi-Tec computerized monitoring system, corian tops, washer & drier, LOADED!
Is your Marquis a 1988 40ft. with a 3208?

Charles Keeling
(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:12 - ID#344225)
@jims re: low gold lease percentage
The CB's seem hooked on the ability to generate revenue on
an asset that otherwise provides NO income to help cover
their expenses. How else can they generate a stream of

I think the low Gold lease rate is tied directly in to the
very low loan rate of Japanese Banks.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:29 - ID#411440)
@ Bill2j and jims re lease rates. Either the people who head CBs
are stupid, or leasing gold is intended to depress he near term
price of gold. I can't believe they are stupid. Stupid moves
by intelligent people are usually caused by behind-the-scenes
politics. My guess is that the ECB is trying to keep the POG
down in order to placate the US gov't. They don't want any
action by the Americans that might head off the intro of the
new EURO. This is a currency war. Just don't tell the Americans.

The CBs could be trying to depress the POG on the spot market
in order to accumulate more themselves. ( please see my earlier post
re lease rates. )

The CBs may be trying to create a short overhang. If the ECB has
knowingly created an 8000 tonne short overhang, then they let
the overhand carry at low lease rates until the EURO is launched.
They have leased 25% of their gold reserves to create the overhang,
much of it around $300 per oz. They announce a 10% backing of the
EURO with gold and wait. The Euro is launched, and the CBs cease
leasing. The shorts scramble to cover, and gold rockets to 600 to
1000 dollars per oz. Although most of the shorts would default, some
of the gold would come back, say half of it. For losing 4000 tons
of gold, the CBs have doubled to tripled the value of their remaining
reserves. This would raise the effective backing of the EURO from
10% to 30% and they would still show a paper gain on their surviving gold
reserves. AND the EURO would be guaranteed success in its currency war
with the US dollar. Does this scenario make any sense at all?

I really don't think Central Bankers are stupid.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:35 - ID#368244)
Gold Lease Ratess

To arrive at an answer to low gold lease rates, one needs to determine who is buying all this gold. My guess is CB'S themselves. Lease it and buy it... WHY? Answer... to accomplish some long term goal. ???????

Everyone talks about them losing X dollars on reserves, but you haven't lost it till you sell it. Remove competition, control the market...and what an easy market to control with demand at 0.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 09:57 - ID#57232)
Hot news from Matt Drudge
WJC et al running out of rope in their attempt to prevent Secret Service Agents from testifying. Apparently only William Renquist can squelch the 10 subpoenas at this point.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:00 - ID#354133)
Gored, uh, gold
All - Does any one know what this Bright Star gold scam is about? I find it hilarious that they would advertise at Kitco. Are they serious, or what.

Ravenfire - Oh, the stories customers could tell... Anyone who's considering Monex should contact me beforehand.

Jefsilver - Agree with your assessment. Read Al Gore's book "Earth in the Balance" a few years back. He seemed to blame all of earth's current ills on human habitation. Mankind certainly contributes, but we are not the prime suspect. While portions of the book were interesting, the ghost writer for Gore definitely had a political agenda - more legislation And on a GLOBAL level, not just U.S. of A. Fits right in with the "New World Order" The bum rap of R-12 is a prime example of what happens when the "world leaders" get together to "save the world".

Sam - I had three families of mocking birds this season at my little homestead. Their only enemy was a single gnarly old cat who hangs around my place ( to keep the CA rats away ) but she's getting pretty slow. I had promised its owner I wouldn't site my .22 in on her. Surprised the local ospreys haven't gotten her yet. The birds, tho, are everywhere and they certainly do own the place. The young ones decimated my tomatoes till they learned to go for insects. I love the little buggers.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:19 - ID#427357)

G-O-L-D ....E-A-G-L-E has had the good fortune to receive Reprint Permission from International observer Vieserre to share his erudite and incisive thoughts. The title of his essay is POINT AND COUNTER POINT.

Vieserre's essay deals with the Six Reasons Why Investors buy gold:

- As an inflation hedge
- Safe haven in times of economic and financial market instability
- Currency hedge
- Portfolio diversifier
- Commodity based on supply and demand fundamentals
- And in developing countries, A form of Saving

He is quick to point out that For any of these reasons, there are valid

It is indeed and an interesting a well as intellectual read.

To read the entire essay it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:21 - ID#427357)

Several Kitco posters have expressed interest today on how Central
Banks are able to generate income on their gold reserves.

About a year ago an analyst who uses the protective handle of RED BARON
made a couple of extremely insightful and shocking revelations about the
operations of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. These were little known
facts that explains in minute detail how the Fed operates especially
the HOW & WHY the FRB generates enormous income from its
gold reserves - in SEEMING riskless transactions.

In reality the Fed's operations reek of HIGH RISK!!!!! In fact, your

The startling EXPOS may be read at the following URLs.
Remember it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the
word "golden" before pasting the URLs to your Internet locator.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:24 - ID#317193)
The transports don't seem to be confirming the industrials...surprised?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:33 - ID#373284)
gunrunner, Namaste' What Al EnviroWhore Gore knows about the environement
would not fit in the proverbial thimble...he and the rest of the whores that endorse the Rio Declaration and the 27 imbecilic Principles...

Al EnviroWhore Gore does not represent America...he is nothing more than a schill for the UN-American...uh huh...nuff said...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:34 - ID#113316)
RHODY 9:29 POST. If the CBs decide to curtail or eliminate their practice of gold leasing, then where is the gold going to come from to close the gap between demand and new mine supply? If the CBs decide to call in some or all of the estimated 8,000 tonnes of gold already leased out, then where is that gold going to come from in addition to the shortfall in the gap between demand and new mine supply?

To replace even 4,000 tonnes of gold would take 100% of new mine supply for the next two years, and that would only be possible if there were no ( I mean NO - zero, zilch, none ) demand for jewelry, coins, etc. One has to confront the realization that the gold lease transaction is a fraud!
There is no way that the outstanding gold leases can ever be repaid short of an explosion in the POG such that the demand/supply situation is radically altered. What is that price? More than you or I could ever imagine ( although some of us have a pretty good imagination ) .

When the Hunts tried to corner the silver market many years ago, the spike in the POS finally came to a halt at around $50 when people started to sell their family silverware. The same sign will signal the top of a spike in the POG.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:36 - ID#187109)
was it you, Kuston, who said(?)
No matter how much ya have ( plat for instance ) .....when the price takes off ya never have enough................sure seems true now. I regret I was only belly button deep this time and not my usual nipple deep.................I guess I can buy the dips with some profits????????????? ( big damn smiles ear to ear ) ....... ( and laughter throughout the rooftops ) .................. ( and gulps and puffs ) ......................... ( and hanging from the chandeliers ) ........................ ( ohmy! ) ... watch the blast through 400............Mockingbirdy-boy missed it by a week......oh well.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:42 - ID#354133)
Yup - 100% agree. Tipper the glass to you. Tip-o'? Typo? NOT... hee, hee...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:49 - ID#411440)
@ SILVERFOX: Agreed. The gold lease system is a totally artificial
mechanism to reduce the price of gold and to make up mine production
shortfalls from CB reserves in such a way that the POG does not rise.
But once you initiate this system, and run it up to an 8000 ton
short overhang, how do you get out of the system and get your leased
gold back? I don't know. Did the CBs? If the CBs don't know wither,
then we are back to the initial premis that they are/were stupid to
initiate the system in the first place.

I still don't think they are stupid. It is a conspiracy on several
levels to ease in the EURO and supplant the US$ IMHO

I gotta go out, but will post later this afternoon/evening

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:51 - ID#210220)
Gold is up, Who's turn to speak??
CBSMkWtch Gold over 295, Yen less than 140, spot gold rising, no one in Japan to speak, Aug first call coming up, Dow dropping,... guess the EU guys need to announce CB gold sales or maybe Rubie or Greenie spins.. This thing could get out of hand!!!!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:53 - ID#57232)
Global warming and historical earth temperatures
All: I doubt Al Gore knows about the Vrostok ice cores that show the historical temperature of the earth. I have forgotten the exact method used, but it sounds reliable. What is signficant is the the earth was much colder that it is now, until about 14,000 years ago. Something happened, the recent Ice age receeded, and humans flourished. Rising sunspot activity had something to so with the last 300 years of enhanced human activity, but I think there was something else -- perhaps a supernova or a asteroid event that warmed the earth and ended the last ice age. Examination of the Vrostok data reveals that the Earth tends to cool after a period of time -- and that its baseline is cooler than the present temperature. So -- over the last 500,000 years or so, it seems to my eye that the baseline temp is cooler than the present, not warmer.
Just a matter of time before the earth cools again. So -- human effects may actually be beneficial, temperaturewise, in delaying the next cooling period. It does worry me a bit not knowing what kind of major event caused the initial warming.
In summary, I do agree that the global warming hooha is overblown. Now, with regard to pollution and running out of resources to support all the hungry human mouths, the environmentalists have a point. We should be focusing on trying to curb the human birth rate, and saving the rain forests, where so many diverse drugs for medicinal use can be found. In recent years I have slowly realized that our pharmaceutical industry has a long way to go before they can match the rainforests and other natural sources for new pharmaceuticals. Also -- we get oxygen from plants. There is a limit to how many we can remove for housing before we distort the natural balance.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:55 - ID#285121)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) up 40% since Jan.
Everyone in the world is getting rich in the U.S. market except me.
What a bi*ch. I'm just another idiot buying Gold and Silver. However past preformance is no indication of future yaKnow.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 10:58 - ID#287186)
RJ re your 02:55
Some of the lighter moments from the good old days!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:01 - ID#35571)
When a central bank leases it's gold, does it still show the gold on it's books as part of it's reserves?

Can not the leased gold be sold for cash by whoever leases it?

What happens to the sold gold?

How can one know how much gold is physically still in the banks coffers?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:01 - ID#285121)
I stand corrected by CNBC (NDX) up 46% for 1998.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:03 - ID#427357)
IN THE BEAR'S LAIR what to do when you are there

Nationally-acclaimed stock market maven, Clif Droke, paints a grim picture of what is in store for Wall Street.

His most recent report is as interesting as it is educational: "The coming financial collapse -- And how you can prepare for it"

Mr Droke contends that "It is been our plaintive plea for some time that
investors should begin looking for ways to exit their long positions in U.S. equities and begin transferring their money to safer financial instruments in anticipation of the coming stock market collapse."

He cautions "Being fully "invested" under these present conditions would be the height of folly."

And he warns "Banks and businesses aren't the only ones preparing for a major financial collapse."

Per the U.S. Under Secretary of the Navy, the Pentagon is fully expecting the stock market to crash. Food for thought for the still-bullish among us.

In the latter portion of his report analyst provides careful planning and prudent investment strategies. He give ver specific recommendations as to the most appropriate Bear Market investment vehicles - where capital can be preserved and profits may be made in even the worse bear markets.

To read his Bear market Strategy Report it's necessary to delete the
extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the following
URL to your Internet locator:

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:07 - ID#57232)
Silverfox: We just need to be patient, don't we? Once the CB's nolonger wish to push the price of gold down -- they have to sell or lease 1000 tonnes or so each year ( whatever the shortfall is between mine production recycling and consumption ) . Can't keep this up forever, and the more they do this, the greater the likelihood of running out of reserves, and losing control of the gold markets.
The only fly in the ointment is that gold demand might actually drop some more if we continue to have worldwide deflation. But -- we are also losing gold producers. My guess is that demand will continue to exceed supply for some years to come.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:08 - ID#35571)
Just for starters

Interesting. It prompts one to ask what makes the difference between a market crash and a market correction? I think it depends upon whether the market responds to bad news in a timely fashion or rather ignores it and ascends to ever higher heights. Eventually reality sets in, even if ignored.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:08 - ID#222231)
Y2K may be reason for hi techs soaring.
Just a thought for reasons behind hi techs booming.

1 ) Complications in resolving all of the inherent problems.

2 ) #1 will create a rush to invest in Y2K compliant hardware and software.

May be the once in a lifetime investment right now regardless of high PE ratios.

Comments appreciated


(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:15 - ID#57232)
Questions that need to be answered about gold
Gollum: I recall that the CB's use scrip of some kind to indicate how much gold they have, at least to their fellow banks. I have yet to see any indication that bank inspectors regularly check the CB's out to see how much gold is really there. So, the problem of where's the gold does not apply just to Fort Knox, it also applies to all CB's. During my crazy moments I have wondered why we have so many soldiers guarding Fort Knox. Perhaps it is not to keep the gold there -- perhaps it is to keep the curious from finding out that the gold is no longer there.
Don't you think the CB's should have periodic audits? You'd think the BIS would have enough clout to do this.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:21 - ID#408228)
Gold leases
I am intrigued by the comments today regarding the Gold lease rate, and I wanted to posit a possible reason for low lease rates. Up front, I want the community to know that I know nothing other than what I read in the news, so this is purely speculation on my part.

The price of oil is very low now, and it has been reported that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers are short of cash. If you were the Saudis, or ANOTHER oil producer, who remains a true believer in Gold, but who nonetheless has a pressing cash-flow problem, would it not make sense to lend gold to a reliable counter-party to receive cash to pay for pressing expenses. The transaction would include the understanding that the gold would be repurchased at a future date at a 2 % +/- premium per year. This would have the benefit for the lender of providing needed liquidity and anonymity, while still keeping the exposure to a believed-in long term investment. After all, leases are essentially a repo transaction in gold, rather than bonds.

A second benefit is that an affected government would not need to publicly borrow from a very skittish international lending community at rates of LIBOR + 75bp ( if available ) , and in the process advertise to the world that they are a little tight for cash.

If this is the case, it strikes me as likely that the cash needs of the oil producers might well dwarf the inventory finance needs of the trade. A continuation of the financial pressures in the world might lead to backwardation in the gold market, rather than the normal contango market that we are accustomed to.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:24 - ID#287186)
woke up this morning feeling/thinking Y2K will be OK
That all we will get are a few "annoyances".
Somebody please slap me back to reality.

This convoluted Gold leasing deal smells like a fix
between the lessors and lessees.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:24 - ID#287186)
woke up this morning feeling/thinking Y2K will be OK
That all we will get are a few "annoyances".
Somebody please slap me back to reality.

This convoluted Gold leasing deal smells like a fix
between the lessors and lessees.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:25 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' Historical data confirms that the earth is cooling...this is TRUE...
regarding the population...Hmmmmmmmm...I say the very same governments that purportedly have our best interests in mind are the problem...the technology exists today that would make for a far more harmonious interaction between our species and the planet we inhabit...

There is no leadership...the earth could easily sustain several billion more people...easily...but you have fools like Gorby at the Green Cross and others of his ilk flapping their gums...but their aims are political and have nothing to do with the human condition, human rights or anything resembling renewable resources and unleashing the magnificent ingenuity which mankind possesses that can and will eventually win out...providing for all...

and then...up and off to the that WE might go home...

all things in time...a Giant GULP from the Island that is Long to you and gunrunner...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:27 - ID#286284)
@ Gollum re CB lease questions:

:::When a central bank leases it's gold, does it still show the gold on it's books as part of it's reserves?


::: Can not the leased gold be sold for cash by whoever leases it?

The _only_ purpose of leasing gold is to sell it into the cash market. Therefore _every_ oz leased is a oz sold spot.

:::What happens to the sold gold?

( smile ) - Presumably it's in safer hands.

:::How can one know how much gold is physically still in the banks coffers?

As I said in my post last night ( @Steve_in_TO re CB Leasing - 1 am? ) , this is a very good question to start asking.


SamA ( not sam! )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:27 - ID#411259)
..... Palladium go way high .....

When things get crazy in PGMs and backwardation kicks in, prices can be confusing. This has not happened yet but should start to develop over the next couple weeks. As far as I know the only place to find accurate SPOT prices on PGMs is to be found here:

And your eyes do not deceive. The Russians said the would ship the metal, the price goes up a bit, they then say the cannot ship the metal and the price soars. Deja Vu all over again.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:30 - ID#26467)
FWIW ABX reshorted at 18 1/4 stop 18 1/2

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:34 - ID#373284)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' just saw your comment from yesterday...I agree...SSRIF is
a screaming buy...a hearty gulp to you and yours my friend...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:38 - ID#411259)
..... # 2 .....

Overnight, a second little blue egg with brown spots appeared in the nest in my Sago in the barrel on the patio.

Will there be a third little proto-bird?

Maybe I could help......

OK... Breathe... Big Cleansing breath, now.... OK PUSH! Thats it, keep PUSHING

Away TopracticeLamazzewiththebirdies

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:40 - ID#57232)
How many people can the earth support?
tolerant1: You are correct as well -- if the world's governments were able to work together more effectively ( and more generously, since we are all inhabitants of this small blue planet ) we could support the present population. Unfortunately governments are inefficient, and often corrupt. We will not attain our destiny in the stars until we can do better on earth. Just the matter of our debt/credit ridden fiat currencies will keep us from being able to afford what is needed. We must be patient, unfortunately, and do what most others are not doing, so that the world's economy can be jumpstarted again later.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:41 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
RJ: Always wondered about the accuracy of the MONEX spot quote page you gave. Shouldn't CHANGE = LAST - OPEN ???

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:46 - ID#242325)
XAU up over 2% this morning as POG sinks a buck. Very interesting action.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:48 - ID#338228)
XAU and other gold indicies...
Certainly are looking strong today, at least for the moment. XAU up 2.2%.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:51 - ID#411259)
..... Ron .....

No. Excellent question though, nobody else seems to have caught that.

When the market gaps up overnight this will give us a higher opening price. The change listed is from the close yesterday.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:52 - ID#258427) volume coming into ssc as well
up 1/16 to 1/8 on 219,000 shares or so...go silver.. ( it's down 4 cents...

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:52 - ID#35571)
So if the banks continue to show the leased gold as reserves, even though it might be earings by now, then when they use "some kind of scrip" to tell their fellow banks about how much gold they have does the scrip indicate not only actual physical holdings but also leased ( ficticious ) holdings?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:53 - ID#373284)
and to prove a point that 3500 shares just purchased of CFB
is mine...uh huh...still putting my money where my mouth is...uh huh...

ted butler__A
(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:55 - ID#317184) your 11:27 answers
sam - you've earned your A

(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:57 - ID#373284)

PH in LA
(Thu Jul 16 1998 11:57 - ID#225408)
Oxygen from rainforests?
re: Effects of cutting the rainforests on oxygen production

It has been suggested that by far the most conversion of CO2 to oxygen comes about from the plankton in the oceans rather than the rainforests. That doesn't mean that we should be at all complacent about losing the biological diversity of said forests, however.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:04 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
RJ: Thank you, sir.

P.S. Still riding that platinum steed you so highly recommended a couple months back. Sure glad I listened to 'ya. She's a beautiful pony. Hat's off.

Might we see $440/oz, or is it more likely to peter out near $410? Ooooh, those Rooskies sure like to play it close to the vest.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:07 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Hmmm, just realized steeds are he's . . . I'll never be a writer except at the funny farm where steeds are she's.

EB: Loan me 'yer spurs!

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:08 - ID#246224)
Enjoy the emotional vacation. You'll regain a sense of urgency the next time you start thinking about it again ;- )

But seriously, there is a time to let go of this for a while. One can not be hypervigelent at all times. The bad will come soon enough. Take a break.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:11 - ID#263254)
This question is for you, Sharefin
With your months and months of research at 12 hours per day, did you run across anything in the chinese language on y2k and it's implications. I haven't found anything yet that wasn't a deadend. I have some relatives that need convincing. Thanks for your help.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:17 - ID#335379)
Hello Lurker777 and RJ
Lurking One:
Thee Beav is 89' 40',8.5' wide, no washy no dryee, Detroit V6 92 Silver, turbo and supercharged, 350HP, 1200 Fott/pounds torque, 2 stage Jake, Allison C4,
Won the bells and whistles award from Family Motor Coach assoc. 2 years in a row.
We tow a ford E350, 18" van w/30" fiberglass top plus AC.
Total machine: 63 feet long, 42,000 pounds. We call it the Bahemoth.

RJ: see my 03:10 for your Gulp.


(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:23 - ID#261322)
Old Gold
Yes indeed it is interesting. XAU is still up, and POG is still down. Any thoughts?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:25 - ID#212197)
Hocus Pokus Sim...Sala....Bim: That's so far my theory
about eternal short sales in gold and silver.

Vronsky: thanks for pointing to Ted Butler's essays. I printed almost all of them and I'm in the process of reading them. I hope I'll get finally a handle on these forward sales methods. The reason why I don't understand these methods yet is this: every short sale must be covered one day in the future or balanced through delivery. If these short sellers cover, that would be bullish, if they deliver, that would be bearish.
So what the hell do they deliver when the COMEX stocks don't fill up but melt down. Where is the solution for this hocus pocus simsala bim game?

Maybe Ted Butler will explain it to me. That's my hope for now.

Besides: "The Strong Hand has to Shake out the Weak Hand..".
Gold and silver markets behave these days as if they would follow this concept. The more volatile they behave, the more they seem to stay at the same price level.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:27 - ID#57232)
Most Oxygen from plankton
PH in LA: You are correct -- I think it is 2/3 of the oxygen supply. Fortunately the plankton is more renewable than the forrests. There is another concern, and that is the nations of the world have been using the hunter/gather approach to the oceans, rather than the farming approach, and have depleted the oceans of fauna. Fortunately, I don't think we have been able to signnificantly damage the plankton, so no Soylent Green yet. The problems with the various coral reefs may be pollution related, however.
I am heartened by the recent approach of farming salmon, lobster, and shellfish -- so we are learning. Now the Mainers can keep giving us Maine Lobster, as well as keep body and soul together. But -- we should do better with maintaining the flora and fauna in the Oceans. We should not be so confident in our husbandry skills to assume we do not need the natural environment as a gene pool resource. Perhaps later in our development, but not yet.

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:31 - ID#354133)
No easy answers
JTF, T-1:

Totally agree that the burning of fossil fuels and the worlds' forests are a problem. But the R-12 example agrees with what both of you are saying. New World Order politicos issued the Rio edict R-12 is bad and should be eventually totally banned. This edict was based only on limited, simplistic chemistry which shows that triflourochloromethane-R-12 stuff reacts with ozone ( O-3 ) primarily near the earth's surface. Well, duh. However, research also shows that for every exo-atmospheric launch of a rocket, an extremely large hole in the ozone layer is temporarily created ( the Rio group didn't ban space launches, though. ) It is also speculated that the ozone layer goes through cycles much like the greenhouse gasses have done for centuries ( CO-2, et al, as proven by the ice core samples. ) Problem with the atmospheric layers, is we have no have no historical data base like the ice. The cave-dudes didn't have the aircraft to test the ozone layer, nor did they give a rats @ss about those problems. The problems with Global agencies and its policies are the lack of information and consensus among both the politicians and their hired "expert" scientists-prostitutes ( many of whom advocate anything that keeps them employed. ) Typical human weaknesses ( ego, greed for power and money, stupidity, etc. ) always seem to exacerbate problems. Just like the current world-wide economic crises and the alleged price manipulations with metals. ( Had to tie all this to gold somehow ; )

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:34 - ID#433172)
Who are the leasees, that is the question. Who? who? who? Thats probably the the why?why?why?

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:36 - ID#335379)
Hello Tolerant1:
Glad to see an official reaction to the latest Klinton Shenanagens, Hope to see some official action soon too, you know public humiliation and the like, you know prison and the like...
I can't remember where I read this comment about klintons new fed-vision.
"Klinton has said that he is nolonger for big government, what he means is that he is now for gargantuin government" Speeking of Bahemoths and Leviathins.....
Hope that the Sovergn Individual view of sepratism happens before the Krooks
try for there WWG.
Go gold.
may the truth shine brightly in this land of dim leadership


(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:36 - ID#289357)
Y2K and the IRA dilemma

(Thu Jul 16 1998 12:38 - ID#433172)
Answer ?
The CB is the leasor. The CB is the leasee.....Have your cake and eat it too.