Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:30 - ID#258427)
"Hello World"
and all Kitcoites....go gold and silver


(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:30 - ID#147201)
Anybody here???

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:37 - ID#208393)
Where has everybody been?
How many were thinking conspiracy when Kitco was down? How many were hoping for a gold skyrocket? Come on, admit it.
( still waiting for golddough )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:39 - ID#354133)
At the 1997 World Women's Conference the first speaker from England
stood up: "At last years' conference we spoke about being more assertive
with our husbands. Well after the conference I went home and told my
husband that I would no longer cook for him and that he would have to do
it himself. After the first day I saw nothing. After the second day I saw
nothing. But after the third day I saw that he had cooked a wonderful
roast lamb." The crowd cheered.

The second speaker from America stood up: "After last years' conference
I went home and told my husband that I would no longer do his laundry
and that he would have to do it himself. After the first day I saw
nothing. After the second day I saw nothing. But after the third day I
saw that he had done not only his own washing but my washing as well."
The crowd cheered.

The third speaker from Australia stood up: "After last years' conference
I went home and told my husband that I would no longer do his shopping
and that he would have to do it himself. After the first day I saw
nothing. After the second day I saw nothing. But after the third day I
could see a little bit out of my left eye."

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:40 - ID#342376)
@ Kitkat
The thought did crosss my mind.....

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:48 - ID#246224)
not the moon

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:49 - ID#190411)
I thought that Bart 404'ed the lot of us.


(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:49 - ID#246224)
Try this on for size, mate.
Chatter from Yourdon Forum


I work for a federal banking regulator. I first heard from a
very reliable source that the Fed was stockpiling cash about
a month ago. This was recently verified by members of our
senior management. I would imagine the Fed doesn't want this
fact to be widely known and is therefore not publicizing it.


In a normal bank closing situation, you wouldn't have a problem
getting items out of your safe deposit box ( although there might
be some small delay in accessing the box ) . However, in the
situation that will likely occur due to Y2K, I would be VERY
reluctant to place my funds or other valuables in a bank's SDB.
The risk isn't so much confiscation as it is gaining access.
Depending on the number of failures caused by Y2K ( or prior bank
runs ) , you could be denied access to your box for a substantial
period of time.


(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:51 - ID#246224)
Thanks for working to make this site the best. We know that sometimes that means interuptions. Can you give us an update on your recent work??? TIA.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:54 - ID#377196)
I was depressed all day yesterday because I could not get on. This
site is addicting. Did look around and saw mentioned that an
under secretary of the Navy mentioned that the armed forces and
WALL STREET OFFICIALS have talked about what to do WHEN not if the
stock market crashes!!! This appeared in Bert D.R's Wellington Letter.

If this is true then there are a lot of people who are getting
ready, now it all depends on the 25 year olds on the street. When will
they realize that what they have created is dangerous-the next bear will
have teeth!!!!

It feels like the markets are getting wound tighter and tighter.
I'm beginning to feel my prediction for DROOY $15 by Jan of '99 is
a real posibility. No one sees $400 gold by end of year. Even former
bulls like Bishop, Blanchard, etc. don't see anything happening very
fast. Therefore, I say when EVERYONE is negative.....thar she blows!!!

My girl friend just sold her house and we plan to buy more of my
favorite golds Aug 1st or 2nd. Hope prices stay low till then.



John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:55 - ID#24135)
The IMF wants RSA !!
To All
Some guy with an Indian name that works for
Standard and Poor has rated RSA the 2nd
most risky place in the world to invest. Russia is
safer according to this idiot.
Well .. This is pure bullsh!t BUT the picture is
becoming clearer .. RSA does NOT have any IMF loans
and no IMF connection. So .. the IMF is going to do
everything it can do using surrogate agencies to try
to get more influence and control over this country.
RSA finances itself with rand and Eurodollar
bonds. This must drive the IMF crazy .. what a bad
example we set .. we are not DEPENDENT on the
International banking system. We must be punished.
Ha !

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:55 - ID#335190)
Perception@IMF and SISTER,World Bank-Wrongdoings?-Business taking care of Business.Corp.Welfare EH!
Report on World Bank details 'fraud, waste, abuses'

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Allegations about possible kickbacks and other wrongdoing at the World Bank are making it difficult to justify funding it and other multinational lending agencies, congressional watchdogs said. Senator Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said disclosure of the investigation Wednesday "only serves to reinforce the perception that the secrecy and indifference" displayed by the bank "are protective measures designed to shield gross mismanagement, fraud, waste and personnel abuses."

Congress is considering whether to provide the bank's sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, with $18 billion in new funding, as well as replenishing a bank fund used to make loans to the world's poorest countries.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 11:59 - ID#266105)
Harmony interview

Interview with FERDIE DIPPENAAR - 15 July, 1998

AH: We move across to gold mining now and good evening to you, Ferdie Dippenaar. Ferdie, you've got some nice
number that you produced today: this is Harmony Gold Mine with earnings per share of 68c, but what intrigues one is
the forecast of 109c in the third quarter. How confident are you about that?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: Alec, fairly confident. We've just come back on a 36c improvement in this quarter and that was
at a gold price of round about R49 000 or R50 000 per kilo during the previous quarter. We've also got this increased
production coming in from the branch shaft, a better grade, higher volumes coming in and the whole number - that
was just the way that the Harmony gearing - or marginality, in the old days, as we used to call it - actually operates.

AH: The other big announcement today, is that your acquisition of 86% of Evander is going to cost you a lot less
shares. Now explain to us what happened there?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: Well, I think if we take timing into consideration - our timing was probably right. Maybe a bit of
luck also came into it, because we came to an agreement on the Wednesday and by the Friday the rand had
depreciated. What we found is there was a lot of need for some rand hedge stock in the market and we managed to
place the stock at, I think, considerably higher prices than we anticipated.

AH: 16.2 Million shares against 25 million shares - that's quite a big difference.

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: That's quite a big difference and of course the increase in the gold price and the numbers you
spoke about - just over R1 earnings per share increase - that gives us quite a bit of cash available. We have a fairly
strong balance sheet in terms of cash, so what we thought of doing is, instead of having this, let's say potentially 52%
dilution of the current shareholders, if we funded some of this out of our own sources, we could actually get that down
to 33%. That was really in line with I think, a lot of the expectations of the shareholders.

AH: Now, we had a chat earlier on in the week with James Henry, the portfolio manager of Old Mutual Investors Fund.
He had some pretty good things to say about Harmony, which is strange, to hear an institutional investor actually
selecting your company as one of the more promising operations for the future. Have you got much support from other
institutions as well?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: I think at the moment, yes. Obviously I can't speak for the others, but if I have a look at the
reports going out and the bit of feedback in the market, there's a shortage of stock. It is being recommended by quite a
few institutions, so I just think the market has shrunk to such an extent that there is a need for good stock, and we just
happened to have performed. I think our plans have come together over the last three years, and we are well
positioned to actually make use of that.

AH: Are you still on the prowl for other acquisitions?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: It's our strategy, Alec. I think it's worked well. Our shareholders love this strategy as well, that's
why they invest in us, and we've taken the view that there are a couple of good assets still around, locally more now
than ever. I think the Free State is an area we should be concentrating on and with the current gold price and the cash
that will become available, most certainly.

AH: You say locally you will be focusing - are you still looking internationally?

FERDIE DIPPENAAR: I think the Canadian operation, the mine in Canada. We've taken the view that possibly we
would like to disappear for two years, make it work, come back and claim a big success, claim a bit of a foothold
internationally so that we can actually make it work. It's something new for us and a lot of the mining companies in
South Africa, and then build on that. I think internationally, before we become - we can even call it "cookie munchers" if
needs be - before we actually get to that stage, I think we should bed down the acquisitions one by one and build into
strength, probably, instead of just going in for quantity.

AH: Ferdie Dippenaar, the commercial director of Harmony Gold Mine - and what a fascinating forecast we have from

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:00 - ID#342376)
@ Allen(USA)
Interesting you brought up that point. I just received my Mounties yesterday and am bringing them to my Safe Deposit Box today. ( They are beautiful, I might add ) I don't think there would be a problem with the Safe Deposit Boxes until 1/01/2000. Perhaps after that, the vault might not open. It seems it would be very difficult for the Government to block access to SDB's. Does anyone have any thoughts about that? Where's Mozel when you need him.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:05 - ID#246224)
Fact is its their property. They can keep you out at any time and as long as they wish. The only recourse would be the legal system. And if thge Government is in on the shut down, then you are SOL, compadre.

I'd think about it twice and be extra vigilant, nose to the wind, etc if you go for the SDB route.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:07 - ID#26395)
down time
It's a good thing a downed server doesn't generate an Error 404 message.

In the future if our discussion group goes down, our ISP has given permission to email them directly if the server needs to be reset.

If, after an hour of unsuccesfully attempting to get in send an email to and ask Ed to check if Kitco's server is down. It might be a good idea to make a note of the email address now.

Send the message ONLY when the discussion group is down. The price quotes are run of an entirely different system of which Ed is not even aware.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:08 - ID#147201)
John Disney re IMF/RSA
Absolutely! I knew you could recognize the enemy. Screw them

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:09 - ID#147201)
If world Bank, why not IMF

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:10 - ID#342376)
@ Allen(USA) and a GREAT link for info on any stock..
Thanks Allen, Mighty scary. Try this link folks, type in a stock and you won't believe all the links it comes up with for info on any stock!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:14 - ID#266105)

I gather you are C Hudson over on the SI mine thread.
Quite a soap opera there, still a shareholder.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:19 - ID#57232)
Hot Item -- Wm Renquist says Secret Service Agents must testify
All: Haven't been able to get on for over 24hours. Could this be because Kitco was swamped? Anyone know? Gold/gold equities doing ok -- could this be because WJC fortunes are shifting? Those Secret Service agents are trained to tell the truth -- at least they were at one time -- and I still think they are now. No wonder WJC is worried -- and, if he had nothing to hide why do his people make such a big production of this?
This may be a major turning point for gold, WJC, and the markets. I would guess that the markets will continue on their pel mel ( sp? ) race to DOW 10,000 regardless, or fluctuate. An outright collapse is not in the cards -- this month anyway. As Oldman would say, it will take alot to bring this bull market down. Sort of like the chicken with its head cut off -- ever see one? The point is that it can run around for a while as it did not know the head was gone.

We may have our gold bug Tsunami after all.

By the way did everyone notice that the JOC spot industrial commodities index has been rising since Jan 1998? Bullish for gold. Anyone know how to get this index without paying $100+ per month? It is reported daily. I am looking for historical data on this too.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:19 - ID#310222)
speaking of serious withdrawal symptoms what was everyone doing yesterday?
.......waiting -and waiting - and waiting ... there any hope for the prec. metals to move up soon?
sitting on undervalued stocks, sure frail's my nerves !......some of them went down 80%, each time I thought they can't get any lower, now, .....can they still go lower????

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:21 - ID#266105)

Get used to it.

: )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:22 - ID#410198)
When Kitco goes down I spend far to much time on Free Republic a great political site

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:26 - ID#57232)
Thanks, Bart!
Thanks for letting us know what happened! I was beginning to think that we were being censored ( not by you ) or that the gold trading business was so hot that you were swamped. Am I right that our ISP provider is not in the precious metals business, so that the blackout was not precious metals related?
Thanks again for this wonderful site. There is nothing else on the net that I have found like this.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:27 - ID#287129)
lady_bug (speaking of serious withdrawal symptoms)
Believe me when I say that I empathize with you!!! You are not alone with your concerned stress. We made the right decisions for the right reasons, but did so just a little too soon. Let's hope that we can hang in there long enough to reap good rewards for our decisions.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:31 - ID#377196)
John Disney
What is the chance the IMF will get RSA? Isn't Rubin going there
shortly. The US usually gets what it wants. We are the biggest mafia
with the most agressive pimps around!

I hope not, but if IMF/US are desperate to get the gold, they
could loan you guys enough money you could never pay back!!!


(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:32 - ID#342376)
@ 2BRO2B?
Yes, That's me. I'm still in. I do believe MINE has the gold, although many on here are sure it's a scam. To me, it's the contrarion of all contrarion plays. Think about it, a gold mine stock that even many goldbugs think is a scam. It's a crapshoot no doubt, but think about the fact that with all the problems the company has, combined with intense scrutiny from the SEC and they are still moving ahead to get an independent firm's verification.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:37 - ID#410198)
LA TIMES reports this morning Social Security Funds to go into stock market...that should make us
all feel good

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:39 - ID#335190)
chas: You got that right. Time, and timing, will bring out the truth.

Gold will have it's day, when more citizen's ask the same question eh!

Yes, gold is under control, as is our democratic governments, as is the wealth and value of workers/citizens/taxpayers, we need not look to poor nations to see the fraud, such are the standards, of those that are identified as "power's to be", as "they" exist in our respective nations.

( corporations/Banks/progressive internationalists )

Look back, to see forward eh! ( Where is Mozel? anyone know? )

Thanks Take Care

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:39 - ID#57232)
Another Item from World Net Daily
All: The Loral situation with ChinaMissleSatGate has not ended. You all know about the recent revelations about the MIRV type technology being put in Chinese missles to launch multiple communications satellites. We have been told that the technology is 'different' so it is ok. Well, have a gander at WorldNetDaily. It seems that Loral lost the encryptation codes for the jamming routines for AirForceOne several years ago. I wonder who has those floppies now? I guess that might be poetic justice wouldn't it, it the electronic countermeasures for AirForce One did not work one day? What worries me is that enterprising individuals might be able to use the code key ( if they have it -- someone does ) to decipher other secret US military encryptation. I'll bet that the style of encryptation tells alot. Hope there are still are a few competent nonpolitical types at NSA.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:40 - ID#266105)

I'm just hangin' around with a small lot to see what develops...

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:42 - ID#24135)
Have I got a mine for YOU !!
To All
Im sure you will figure it out for yourself but
these are the details ..
Resources .. 100 mill oz ( including inferred
Shares ... 412 million
Annual output .. 922,000 oz

Plans major development of low cost reserves
to produce 300,000 oz/year for one billion
rand capex ( about 165 mill $ ) .. to commence mid 1999
and complete end 2001.

Production Cost of new area will be 180 $/oz
Present production hedged 3 years forward reflecting
new rand rates.. this will cover most of required
capex which will be almost all in Rand anyway.

Market cap is 4.5*412/6.35 = $292 million
for a STUNNING 292/100 = less than THREE $ an oz ..

AS I recall .. Lihir was about 35$ an oz .. So
this mine should rise in price almost 12 times faster
than Lihir .. RahRah CisBoomBah

Do you want to know what it is .. or have you guessed??

Gold Dancer
(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:47 - ID#377196)
Lady_Bug and Skip etc.
I too know what you are talking about. After 30 years you would
think I would know better!

So I just changed my attitude and became happy that this big sell
off came because it allows me to purchase more at lower and lower
prices. Providing you pick a winner ( is able to stay in business ) you
will actually make more money this way!!!

Every time I got scared out in the past, or questioned my judgement,
I was wrong. Every time I didn't buy more I missed becoming a millionare.

So just do what is the hardest thing to do. Keep buying. When markets
get this low the resulting up move is just as big. But you have to
pick the right stocks, especially in the resource market.

What started out as 5,000 shares has become 18,000 all bought at
progressively lower prices. When this stock goes back up....WOW!!!

Hang in there-get tough-relax.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:49 - ID#335190)
GM Strike is working it's magic @ 11 % drop in auto, provides the smoke & mirrors.
July 16, 1998

U.S. industrial production drops steeply

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The General Motors strike sent output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities plunging in June at steepest rate in five years.

U.S. industrial production fell 0.6 per cent, matching a drop in May 1993, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. There hasn't been a steeper decline since the index fell 0.9 per cent in March 1991, the last month of the 1990-1991 recession.

However, most of the decline was attributed to an 11 per cent dropoff in automotive production.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:53 - ID#147201)
We got them covered, now if we just kick them. Maybe Tren Lott will come to his senses. Cheers

(Fri Jul 17 1998 12:57 - ID#147201)
John Disney

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:01 - ID#220325)
Blooper: Thank you for your reply re: Invesco
Good advice, I will follow it.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:06 - ID#342376)
It seems Wall Street is shooting for a "soft landing" although I doubt it's possible.
Wall Street firms slash Q2 U.S. GDP estimates
NEW YORK, July 17 ( Reuters ) - Major Wall Street investment banks on Friday slashed estimates for second-quarter U.S. economic growth, with some now forecasting negative growth on the heels of a ballooning trade deficit and a huge drop in inventory supply during the quarter.
Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. predicted a 1.5 percent decline in second-quarter gross domestic product, with Merrill Lynch & Co. anticipating a 1.0 percent fall and Salomon Smith Barney expecting a 0.5 percent decline.

Economists at Goldman Sachs & Co. and Lehman Brothers, while saying that negative GDP growth cannot be ruled out in the quarter, predicted small positive numbers. Goldman forecast a 1.0 percent GDP growth rate, down from its earlier forecast of 2.0-percent growth. Lehman trimmed its forecast to 0.5 percent growth from 1.5 percent.

``We are not having a recession,'' said Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch. ``But the economy has stopped. Growth has stopped.''

Economists said they had expected a second-quarter growth rate of 1.5 to 2.0 percent heading into the quarter, after a robust 5.4-percent growth pace in the first quarter and a healthy 3.7 percent pace for the full year in 1997.

``When an avalanche of soft numbers started to roll in consistently, we started marking ( GDP ) numbers down,'' said David Hensley, senior economist at Salomon Smith Barney.

Economists began trimming GDP forecasts after a 0.1-percent drop in May business inventories reported on Wednesday, which many analysts believed would be followed by further reductions in June.

Friday's report that the U.S. trade deficit swelled to a record $15.75 billion in May from a revised $14.27 billion gap in April fueled further forecast reductions.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:06 - ID#373284)
Nicodemus, Namaste' I concurr...WJC is a real peach...
Went to the village yesterday...finding gold in childrens ears...and...I am not proud of this but I got whooped in stickball by a 12 year old...

Little devil had a mean sinker...oh well...another lesson in humility...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:07 - ID#220325)
Martin Armstong quote re: gold
"Monetary systems have come and gone for thousands of years. Man has tried all sorts of things as currency from seashells, wheat, paper and land to gold, silver, bronze and giant clamshells. Money has one basic requirement. Its supply must be allowed to grow in proportion to population or else social development is prevented causing perpetual dark ages to emerge. Therefore the supply of money must be sufficient to service the needs of a population, which is why precious metals can no longer serve that need." HE FORGOT TO MENTION TULIPS.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:10 - ID#426220)
HINDU VENGEANCE ON RSA... he forgot the Mau-Mau (:-))

REf: John Disney__A ( The IMF wants RSA !!

Some guy with an Indian name that works for
Standard and Poor has rated RSA the 2nd most risky place
in the world to invest. Russia is....."

John, I totally agree with you on the ludicrous and stupid
opinion of the the S&P guy with the Indian name. His
rediculous observation may be attributed to a rumor
that his "brother-in-laws" who live in South Africa do
not enjoy much professional success. The reason is simple.
They did not belong to the old regime, and ceratinly do
NOT fit in under the present ruling class.

I believe that most well-educated Indians still remember
the sad experiences of Ghandi when he practiced law in the
RSA about 70-80 years ago ( don't remember the exact dates ) .
Perhaps, this is the guy's way of "paying back" a long
suffering affront.

Frankly, I am really flabbergasted that
this guy did not bring up history about the Mau-Mau as
a supporting argument to his proposterous assertions.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:11 - ID#24135)
The IMF is risky !!
For Gold Dancer
All that gold a solid banking system and stock
market and tax system and communication network and
no IMF loans must kill those guys..
Plus RSA banks are active in Mozambique and most of
Southern Africa EXCEPT Zimbabwe ( another typical IMF
basket case ) in competition with the IMF with Rand
And if you recall Anglos pulled a diamond deal out
from under a US/Canadian company in Zaire.. That must
have upset the establishment. weren't they going to
take anglos to court ( in the US ) .. Thanks but no
thanks said anglos.
Yes Rubin been here and gone .. uneventful .. was
slightly critical of labor laws . and said in a speech
that banks should lend po folks mo money ..
The only way that the IMF will get RSA is with
nuclear weapons.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:15 - ID#147201)
John Disney re IMF
I knoew y'all could handle it. Illigitimus non carborundum.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:19 - ID#373284)
Get Camdesuss!!!
I can't believe this bum is still getting paid...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:20 - ID#244219)
John Disney - Mystery Mine
I'd love to know who this mine is. The 412 M shares doesn't match any companies that I've seen you talk about, unless there have been splits.

Last I knew:

Rangy - 41M
Drooy - 39M
Harmony - 49M


(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:22 - ID#246224)
It is my understanding that the reason for the sell off in gold related stocks is because of Fund impatience. The returns ( momentum ) wasn't enough for them and they dumped 'em. Hang in there, she bug. They'll find out how hard it is to buy soon enough. Looks like the end of summer before any fireworks. People are on vacation. Summer doldrums and all that.

Von Frick's received approval to buy up to 24.99% of ( ? ) major NA gold. The smart money is following you in. Hold tight.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:22 - ID#269207)
@who pulled the
plug on bart? been two days and no Bart. Yell you need help Bart....

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:24 - ID#426220)

golden-eagle has had the good fortune to receive Reprint Permission from
International observer Vieserre to share his erudite and incisive thoughts.
The title of his essay is POINT AND COUNTER POINT.

Vieserre's essay deals with the Six Reasons Why Investors buy gold:

- As an inflation hedge
- Safe haven in times of economic and financial market instability
- Currency hedge
- Portfolio diversifier
- Commodity based on supply and demand fundamentals
- And in developing countries, A form of Saving

He is quick to point out that "For any of these reasons, there are valid

It is indeed and an interesting a well as intellectual read.

To read the entire essay it's necessary to delete the
extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the
URL to your Internet locator.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:24 - ID#57232)
Rhenquist says agents must testify
All: It's heating up! The equity markets will eventually respond to this, if Kennetth Starr is gaining in the struggle.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:25 - ID#246224)
A mature economy grows at about 2% per year, on average. Gold production is 2% increase per year, on average. Martin is at it again. I think he loves paper to much.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:27 - ID#286234)
Hang around a minute I have something for you from a lurker.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:29 - ID#289357)
Allen (USA)

New production is a function of price.

Mr. Armstrong - make gold $10,000 an ounce and you will be astounded at the growth rate.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:30 - ID#350179)
President to Seek a Barred 3rd Term

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:31 - ID#269207)
@ mm
that page is gone already??????

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:31 - ID#286234)
jefsilver & JTF
Thanks Sam. When time permits, please post for me
to jefsilver_A and JTF.

To jefsilver 7_A and JTF. I am a 30-year member of
the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Been
studying sunspot cycles for a long time. Have data
back to 1700 in my computer along with temperature
for AR back to 1931. Recently added SOI data. Ten
years ago the Foundation published a paper by James
Shirley When the Sun Goes Backward about a 180
year cycle of Solar Retrograde. Using his data and
my sunspot data I was able to see a picture where
the 180-year retrograde fell at the double sunspot
minimum. The 1630s retrograde and the 1810-12
retrograde ushered in cold weather with the 360-year
being the coldest and longest. This latest
retrograde and double sunspot minimum came about in
1996/7. The measure of how cold it gets will be
determined by the severity of sunspots in the
current 23rd sunspot cycle. Over the last three
years the sunspots have remained below 100 per day.
JTF, I have no data supporting a 300 year cycle, I
believe you are looking at the 360-year retrograde
cycle. Jefsilver 7_A you will not miss the cold, it
comes soon. Might last until 2200 however. In
addition to my own research, I have an old Korean
War buddy who is a geologist operating in the
Cascades doing research and exploration. He believes
( and has given me much research in documenting his
theory ) that, in addition to the 360-year cold
cycle, the latest interglacial period has run it
course and the next major glaciation will soon
begin. A cycle lasting 10,000 to 11,500 years. He
expects at least a cold period equaling that of the
1600s. The 2000s will once again see the Thames
freeze over! His recommendations, warm clothes, 4
wheel drive vehicles, and skis. You can get a copy
of Shirleys paper from the Foundation at 900 West
Valley Road, Suite 502, Wayne PA 19087-1821 or call
610-995-2120. My friend, Jack Sauers, can be
reached at 6240 5th NW, Seattle, Washington 98107.

Bar ( lurker )

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:32 - ID#24135)
Goodness Gracious Me!!
For Brother Vronsky ..
You have hit nail on head .. I just remembered ..
A few years ago a South African of Indian extraction
named Gavin Reddy took over the English Edition of
SA Radio .. The FM version was widely listened to
and it had announcers of BBC quality.. This guy had
been an ANC activist and was an extreme left winger.
The radio was suddenly filled with English academics
of a left wing inclination.. the English announcers
were replaced by Afrikaaners with thick accents
or Blacks with real homeboys.
Listeners deserted in droves. Advertising stopped.
Reddy wrote long letters to the Newspapers to the effect
that his White listeners sufferered from Colonial
nostalgia. Aside from all this, the man was singularly
Well guess what .. he was passed over for promotion
and a Black got the Top job in SABC Radio .. Plus the
Black wasnt even ANC or an ex activist. So Reddy accused
the SABC of racism and threatened to take them to
court .. They FIRED him ..
Funny how these Indians stick together.
No more Curry for This Boy ...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:39 - ID#350179)
I can still access it....

( Only posted it to get the adrenaline running - Wasn't Clinton, this time ; )

From Times Wire Reports
Carlos Menem has come clean about wanting a third consecutive term as president, creating a constitutional battle that is splitting his Peronist Party and infuriating the opposition. The twice-elected president, blocked by the constitution from running again, said he will ask party members at a congress today "what I have to do to be a candidate, to not be proscribed so that I can compete in 1999's elections." Alarmed, political opposition members asked ordinary Argentines to defend their constitution. Even the Roman Catholic Church warned Menem against "unbridled ambition."


(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:43 - ID#286234)
RJ, gunrunner, PH in LA

gunner and RJ: Here's a nice little book,
"The Mockingbird" by Robin W. Doughty, University of Texas Press.

PH in LA: How much more long-lived, man-made pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers and toxic industrial compounds can plankton take without suffering serious effects? Scarier to contemplate than y2k bugs if you ask me.

Think Ill go buy me some 10 oz silver bars a few at a time, like I used to do in the old days. Well, I had best get back to Lurkerville and stay there a spell this time. See ya. Don't take no wooden nickels! ;- )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:43 - ID#57232)
Loral lost codes to Air Force One
All: Here is the story. What else can you lose more important than this, if you are a Clinton supporter? By the way, even the Comedian Bill Marr is referring to WJC as the Manchurian Candidate.
If WJC retires to the USA after his 8 years, where in the US will he live -- where the newly MIRVed Chinese missles can't get to him? Those military types in the National Labs must be burning the midnight oil to compensate for all of the ( formerly ) secure military technology now in Chinese hands.
I can think of the conversation in one of our National Defense labs: 'Well, we can't take back the secrets to the MIRV technology, the improvements in launch capablity, the increased accuracy from the GPS systems -- but we can jam them with our electronic countermeasures. What -- they got that too when Loral lost those encryptation codes? Oh well, back to the drawing boards -- we may need to install antimissle defenses instead around Washington DC. instead.'
Did anyone notice that antimissle defenses are now being considered again? What if you don't live in Washington DC? What then? I think we should all carefuly observe where the senior members of our government ( or recent retirees ) decide to live.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:44 - ID#426220)
IN THE BEAR'S LAIR what to do when you are there

Nationally-acclaimed stock market maven, Clif Droke, paints a grim picture of what is in store for Wall Street.

His most recent report is as interesting as it is educational: "The coming financial collapse -- And how you can prepare for it"

Mr Droke contends that "It is been our plaintive plea for some time that
investors should begin looking for ways to exit their long positions in U.S. equities and begin transferring their money to safer financial instruments in anticipation of the coming stock market collapse."

He cautions "Being fully "invested" under these present conditions would be the height of folly."

And he warns "Banks and businesses aren't the only ones preparing for a major financial collapse."

Per the U.S. Under Secretary of the Navy, the Pentagon is fully expecting the stock market to crash. Food for thought for the still-bullish among us.

In the latter portion of his report analyst provides careful planning and prudent investment strategies. He give ver specific recommendations as to the most appropriate Bear Market investment vehicles - where capital can be preserved and profits may be made in even the worse bear markets.

To read his Bear market Strategy Report it's necessary to delete the
extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the following
URL to your Internet locator:

(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:44 - ID#269207)
@nuttin would
surpise me about WJC MM, BUT PLEASE....get help.....NOW...sic....

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 13:45 - ID#24135)
Mystery Mine
For JJ_A
I hoped you'd ask !!
AVGOLD !!!!!! Im sure there
are ADRS but I dont know synbol ..
Another entry is via AVMIN which owns
about half of AVGOLD ..
The Project is Target !
The Money will be generated by
AVGOLD's mine Hartebeestfontein.
.. now hedged ( 70 % ) for 3 years at fat
rand prices.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:04 - ID#426220)

Logic Master Extraordinaire, Dr. Paul Hein, presents a hilarious parody of paper money. His good-natured sarcasm is a riot of entertainment, but right on the money in describing the ridiculous aspects of our money system.

To illustrate his point we travel to the fabled land of the newly-emerged ( from where? ) African nation called Bombasto. He tells us about the country's only airline, Air Bombasto, which sells tickets to travel everywhere, including Timbuktu. Air Bombasto is unique in that is has NO AIRPLANES. NONETHELESS, it is a seemingly profitable business.

Dr. Hein's analogy to modern currencies is all too painfully obvious - albeit it funny. A delightful read but thought-provoking.

As usual you need delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:05 - ID#246224)
'73% had not started code repair'

"SEC testimony by commissioner Laura Unger in June was an eye-opener. "An astonishing 73 percent of companies have not begun their code Remediation," says Peraino."

"Peraino points out that the SEC's most recent analysis is based only on
disclosures of stock-market-traded companies that mentioned the Year
2000 dilemma in their reports. "An amazing 30 percent of publicly traded
companies' annual reports did not mention the phrase Year 2000," he
said. The reports in question were those filed after January 1998."

Of 9,000 publicly traded companies 2,700 did not comply with the SEC requirement to declare the status of their Y2K efforts.

Of the 6,300 that did declare their Y2K efforts 4,600 companies had not BEGUN to repair their code base as of Jan 1, 1998.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:07 - ID#237264)

Armstrong is protecting [his} and [his clients] positions. The trouble is that many reading his spin believe in it.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:14 - ID#264289)
None Dare Call It A Conspiracy
I came across a book first printed in 1976 called "None Dare Call It A Conspiracy" by Gary Allen and Larry Abraham

The following is from APPENDIX 1

Council on Foreign Relations/Trilateral Commission influence in the Reagan Administration

The Council of Foriegn Relations, founded by a small group of internationalists in 1919, continues to be the largest American organization of Insiders working for a "New World Order". In 1973 a new international organization was formed by C.F.R. chairman David Rockefeller, however. Consisting of key government officials and opinion molders in the United States, Europe, and Japan, the new group was called the Trilateral Commission.

"The Council on Foreign Relations is the American branch of a society which originated in England... ( and ) ... believes national boundaries should be obliterated and one-world rule established.
The Trilateral Commission is international ... ( and ) intended to be the vehicle for multi-national consolidation of the commercial and banking interests by seizing control of the political government of the United States."
Senator Barry Goldwater ( With No Apologies )

It then goes on to list some 6 pages of C.F.R. Trilateral Commission members who were Reagan appointees or who were in positions of great influence either in the public or private sector during Reagan's term.

Appendix 2 lists the membership roster of the Council on Foreign Relations as of June 30, 1982

These two names popped up. ( and it's a long list )

Alan Greenspan
Robert M. Rubin

Just thought you'd find this interesting.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:17 - ID#350179)
Off topic post, but possibly entertaining
Inspired by JTF et al
THHGTTG Sample quote:
"The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair."
-- One of the laws of computers and programming revealed.

for more go to:

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:17 - ID#246224)
Agreed. Price adjustments will effect production adjustments. I think Armstrong must be short gold now that his recent predictions are not turning out so good. It was just last Autumn that he was saying big days were ahead for gold. And it looks like even he can't call a tune any better then the rest of us, eh ;- )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:28 - ID#426220)

Long-time veteran market analyst, James Dines, dissects the Asian Crisis into its integral parts. It's a grim prognosis indeed.

He has been on record since 1989 that there would be a major banking
crisis in Japan that would challenge the world to its roots. Dines also
predicted that Asia's currency crisis would spread to Canada, America's
largest trading partner - so that as the Canadian dollar crashes it is not difficult for him to imagine that the United States cannot avoid the suffering of what he calls "The Coming Father of All Bear Markets." Mr. Dines also foresees the Mexican peso as a candidate for yet another currency crash.

What do we envision ahead? There will be a shift, a flight to safety,
sooner or later, out of dollar-denominated assets and into the
traditional and even historic safety of gold and silver, as money
managers seek to transform their paper money into hard assets.

A recession would not be a surprise. But the depth of the downturn, the
difficulty of a recovery and the gloom that suffuses the region have
surprised even the pessimists. The culprit in this latest bout of Asian
contraction and gloom is the Japanese yen, which has plummeted. The
fear among investors is that a chronically ill Asia will infect the robust American and European economies.

Dines insightful and incisive report - albeit grim - may be seen in its entirety at following URL - it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:33 - ID#57232)
Solar cycles - apologies to Bart -- but this is relevant to gold investing
sam: Thanks for the post. It is clear your friend understands these cycles much better than I. Please tell him that a 360 year cycle would still be consistent with the one I had deduced. I too was worried that this sunspot cycle would be weak, as that would portend cold weather. Currently the 23rd cycle sunspot growth rate ( to me at least ) looks strong. It will soon be above 100 sunspots/day, IMHO.
I certainly need to read James Shirley's paper about the 'retrograde motion' of the sun. I think what he is referring to us the concept that the center of mass of the solar system is not at the center of mass of the sun. Hence the center of mass of the sun can move away or toward the earth ( retrograde ) . This could affect the solar heat absorbed by the earth. Another way of looking at this is that the sun is a liquid ball, and the planetary motions cause tides which in turn alter sunpot cycles. When there are few sunspots, the earth cools because the sun cools ( solar constant ) . Are you familiar with Ray Tomes work -- also a memeber of the Center for Cycles Analysis? He has been unable to unravel the mechanism behind the solar cycles, but he clearly has made some progress.
I do not know at this point that I can believe yet that we are entering a cold period within a few years. But, I do agree that the warm period on the 10,000 year cycle or so is about to end. Might take a generation or more to happen. All depends on when the sunspots go away again.
Regardless, the info your friend posted is extremely important to all of us. Can you imagine what would happen to agriculture and the human economic machine if we went into a cold period comparable to the 1630's? Our current economic system would collapse in complete disarray, as there would be no way to support the current population with food, among other things. All I can say is that we better start colonizing other planets and making better use of the solar system before this happens. If not, we better hope that we come up with a low pollution energy source soon -- we will need alot of energy on a scale not yet attempted by human engineers to protect ourselves from this coming cooling period. We may be forced into rapidly learning the skills of weather modification. Hope we have the resources when we will need them.
We will need a stable economic system, and an army of scientists and engineers to accomplish this. Not impossible. A few hydrogen fusion generators could supply the energy needed. But we would need 20-50 years to work out the technology, and figure out where to put the devices so that we would not irradiate ourselves. Cold fusion technology might be another answer, but it is very poorly understood.
I now understand something about that Biblical reference to Adam and Eve eating fruit from the tree of knowledge. Along with knowledge you pay the price -- life is not simple and idyllic any longer. But that knowledge also gives you the chance to survive -- if you choose to use that knowledge wisely and promptly. We haven eaten that fruit of knowledge --it is now up to us as the human race to flourish or risk extinction.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:47 - ID#356379)

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:48 - ID#57232)
Things that go wrong!
MM: I've got to log off for a while. Did appreciate your post. I agree with you that we may all be fixated on y2k and miss that massive solar flare that cooks our power grid, as well as a few key telecommunications computers.
Y2k would then look like a minor problem, if you happened to be in a locale with solar-flare fricasseed silicon chips. Has happened once before -- can't remember where an how many affected.
There is something worse than a buggy computer from y2k. And -- that is a dead one.
Got gold? Got y2k period solar flare proof surge protectors?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:50 - ID#286234)
lurker Bar
Time to start posting, don't ya think?

Think I'll get me a down jacket before I get more silver bars!;- )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 14:50 - ID#316256)
Central Bank loss of power
Doing my usual hunt for the remotely related I came accross this.

It is the summary of a book we've previously discussed called, "The Sovereign Individual"

It talks about cyber money and the loss of central bank's power to covertly tax by debasing currency. It also has some other interesting ancillary information. It doesn't mention gold but the subtext seems to be that the soverign individual will own gold.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:07 - ID#187267)
If anyone knows why the price of gold is up today, please tell me.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:14 - ID#431366)
I was afraid Klinton took K1 down!
RE: Mon Jul 13 1998 19:00
I was hoping I hadn't given him and his cohorts in crime any ideas about shutting down this nest of Goldbugs and Y2K fearmongers. ;- (
We are all back to normal, eh?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:14 - ID#252150)
JY reversal underway@My June 12 prediction of intervention
& reversal is looking good. The ABX that I bought at that time & averaged down is solidly in the black. Just when my optomism was increasing I caught David Levy on CNBC & he threw a bucket of cold water on my optomistic scenario. He makes a very strong case for deflation. As he put it the Asian contagion is only in chapter 2. He sees the fed funds @ 1% & the long bond @ 4% before any sustained recovery occurs. Hardly conducive to a higher POG. At this point I'm only hoping for a break over 300, but doubt very much if we will even get close to the recent high in the near term.
Oh well! Back to the drawing board.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:18 - ID#373284)
LSteve, Namaste'
I highly recommend The Sovereign Individual...excellent reading...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:19 - ID#350179)
Who talked?!
Millennium bug has some Americans ready to run

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:26 - ID#212323)
Any increased producution of paper dollars for increased demand due to Y2K will NOT cause inflation
There seems to be some misunderstanding on that point. The dollar is a Unit of Account that in modern times does not often receive a physical representation. Transactions with these Units of Account are handled as digital transfers ( credit card, checks ( which are digitally transferred by the Fed clearinghouse ) , and direct payments, etc ) far more frequently than as a physical representation ( cash ) changing hands. Therefore, to save costs, only enough cash is printed to meet the demands of the relatively minor number of physical-based transactions.

If the government were indeed able to print money over the short-term in sufficient quantities to address the increased demand due to Y2K, this is not inflationary. They would simply be providing the physical representation of the Units of Account that are already part of the money supply.

Inflation would rear its ugle head only when additional Units of Account enter the free market and start competing for a limited quantity of goods and services. This happens slowly and insidiously nowadays as Government engages in deficit spending. Fortunately for the American consumer, much inflationary pressure is kept at bay as many of these Units of Account find their way overseas as the balance of trade deficits, "never" to find their way back to American shores. These overseas Units of Account largely stay overseas.

Increases to our current rates of inflation would occur if these overseas Units of Account ever came back to the shores of America as would happen if the USA were ever to have a trade SURPLUS with the rest of the world. This could happen simply through foreign governments and banks choosing to repatriate their USDollar reserves. Increased rates of inflation could also be self induced through actions of the American Govt, but not so simply as printing the Dollar. Wouldn't you agree that creating digital Units of Account and creating physical Units of Account are the same? They are. But simply creating them does not increase the money supply if they sit on a computer hard drive or in a vault. The Govt would have to SPEND them to affect inflation, and by spending them they would indeed be increasing their level of deficit spending...Units of Account appearing on the market where they did not previously participate.

I say again, printing the paper does NOT increase the money supply. It only increases the supply of physical embodiment for the EXISTING money supply which today is largely digital.

So whether the paper is printed or not, impact on inflation is a non-event. Where it can affect inflation is where people's confidence is shaken in the banks' ability to safeguard and manage their digital savings and transaction accounts such that in the absence of the ability to get their hands on physical cash they will drain their accounts through check-writing ( prior to Y2K ) to purchase hard assets to preserve their wealth. Ask yourself, what would you do when the bank is out of cash, yet you still had lots of Units of Account remaining in your personal savings and transaction account ledgers? You would try to spend it on meaningful things. Lots of money suddenly starts chasing around a limited number of meaningful goods. Prices soar. I ask you...

got gold?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:28 - ID#359316)
Think not why the price of gold is up today-
Think why it is up tomorrow!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:31 - ID#208393)
@Grizz - Normal?
Today this is normal..." rockets from $18 to $63 on opening". You know, I get a newsletter about these Internet stocks. It's getting harder and harder to read them and delete when this kind of thing KEEPS on happening. I was part of the HPC fever for awhile. It sure is nice to see something moving, even nicer to make a profit!. Hold me back please, the pull to leave the PM camp and join the Yahoos is getting too strong to resist. HEEEELLLLPPPP

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:47 - ID#246224)
Aragorn III
Perfect. Your invitation to join the FearMongers club is already in the mail headed your way. I strongly urge you to join. You will find it of greatest benefit in the many contacts you will find within the atmosphere of the truly professional purveyors of the Second Emotional Experience of Man.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:48 - ID#233199)
@Jim_A (15:07) Re: Why the rising price of Gold?
Must be riding the coattails of this Barton Fink guy buying into Homestake....?

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:53 - ID#24135)
Disneys Law Of Goldomics ..
For Jim_A ..
Elementary .. My Dear Jim_A ...
Gold is UP today because the dollar
is down versus the yen ..
Using Disneys 1st Law of Goldomics
ie POG = 41250/yen
One Calculates
POG = 41,250/139.43 = 295.8

actual = 295.1 .. close enough
for Goldbugs

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:56 - ID#24135)
Barton Fink Eh??
Then the real Lobowski must be
buying Platinum ..

(Fri Jul 17 1998 15:57 - ID#246224)
Aragorn III - jes' joshing ya there, buddy. That great gas bag ( digital system of wealth, you beat me to it again didn't you! ) will soon deflate as people recognize the jeapordy of the system's demise. Indeed, tangible wealth stores ( gold, silver ) will surge in price. Other products and services will simply be vacuumed out of the system. A few enterprising individuals will buy and hold these products for markup. But by and large the system of production and distribution will simply seize up from the demand level that will be forthcoming.

Inflation requires a steadily rising pressure of demand on goods and services, where the producers and providers feel they can get away with rising prices without losing business. I do not think that our situation will be so gentle an incline. More like a tornedo sucking the earth into its destructive vortex.

John Disney__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:00 - ID#24135)
Dont Get Excited ..
to all
Disneys 1st law says that if the
yen falls back to 145 for example ..
gold goes to

41,250/145 = a crummy 284

so whats the big deal ??

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:02 - ID#377367)
Silver / SSRIF
Yesterday Comex stocks hit a 12 year low yet we get nothing in the upward momentum of the mental nor in many of the silver stock prices. Mean while Silver Standard continues its decent in to the nether regions. It would appear we are still in a severe PM bear MKT. Thoughts?????

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:14 - ID#227238)
John Disney: And for excitement of different kind: Some are predicting a Yen/dollar of 200. Which, by Disney's 1st law of Goldonomics, would indicate a dollar gold price of $206.25.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:14 - ID#252391)
Dow 10,000 before Gold 315?
Notice that the Sept Bond at 122 01 is on the edge of falling off a cliff. Who would think that bonds would fall at this time. Something to watch next week. Also notice the declining dollar index.

XAU made a run at the gap between 72 and 71.50 +/- then fell off rather sharply. Still finished fractional higher.

Reductions of 2nd quarter growth coming fast and furious. Earnings this quarter expected to be up 4% over similar period - and this sustains PEs in the 25+ range. I heard yesterday that the average share on the NASDAQ has a PE of 45+. Hello Japan 1989.

The top may not have been today in the market but 10,000 Dow seems as far away from what would make sense as gold 315. Super Tuesday and the Banks' earnings report should be as good as the news gets.

Glad to see Kitco back

Go Harmony, go Stillwater ( earnings out Monday ) and help for poor SSC needed.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:16 - ID#359316)
If the POG is ignoring the level of physical stocks
this merely supports the notion that the POG is decided by
the flow of paper gold. What tranquil lives gold bars
must lead while their owners change hands.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:17 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA), I have found that nothing is accomplished by worrying.
Instead, careful analysis and appropriate action is needed. And with a world full of troubling and threatening issues, it is important to dismiss the extaneous elements to better concentrate my effort and clarify the big picture. People should understand that the printing of cash is not a problem--the CREATION of money is where the problem lies. And new money is created by Govt though deficit spending and through banks via the lending process. Further, the net effect of money creation also exists in foreign reserves of USDollars being repatriated.

With the advent of the Euro, I see a very real potential of this latter scenario. And as discussed in my earlier post, I see a very real potential for dollars that would otherwise be content to sit in a bank account suddenly being flushed out to purchase hard assets. The amount of physical gold available to the open market is extremely limited. Very much is tied up in Central Bank reserves. Gold is cheap right now. Competition for a scarce resouce can easily boost its price to unimaginable levels. If the dollar can reasonable maintain its purchasing power vs other common goods and services, then gold indeed becomes a profit generating investment. If the dollar's purchacing power falls equally vs everything, then gold mearly preserves your purchasing power into the future. Holding a majority of your wealth as paper is a risky business, holding all of it in digital form is VERY risky business, and gold is left as the logical choice. But definately hold some amount of paper cash because you wouldn't want to spend your gold while shopkeepers remain willing to take paper. Gold is the money of last resort...keep the trump cards 'til the end of the hand. A no-brainer. If people don't feel compelled to act out of concern for Y2K, they should act out of concern for the few people who WILL act out of concern for Y2K. The ones who act first will get what they want and at the best prices.

got gold?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:21 - ID#411259)
..... sam & JD .....

Sam -
OK, number three egg showed up last night, so your estimates on egg production is right on. How long do they take to hatch?

JD -
Made mention of Avgold in todays PM review including a rather gleeful quote about how thrilled they are with their hedge.


We publish the report Friday afternoons at about 4pm PST at:


(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:21 - ID#267344)
JTF - where will Clinton live??
It all depends on whether or not he finishes his second term. If he does finish it, then he will move somewhere very close to Kofi Annan - he will be the first to rule our solar system. If he does not, I think he will move in with Monica - in jail. But who am I to judge?


(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:22 - ID#147201)
JTF re solar flares
You have done an exceptional piece of work on this. Re energy black-outs and long line telephone interruptions, I would like to add some personal experience for your critique. After years of trying to study EMF emissions from faults, I contacted Bell Labs. I wanted to know if they had experience with any long line disruptions not explaned by any parameters they had. The first contact said yes. a few years later I checked back and they said they were familiar with "this" and needed no futher explanation. What "this" appears to me to be is the EMF emission from a fault that disrupts the long lines ( short lines ?? ) when activity takes place. Not a quake, but any one rock unit moving against another. I have some confirmation from an engineer with Duke Energy in Chile. Circuit breakers jumping when no physical or other surge activity taking place on power transmission lines. This study is still in process, but it is very difficult ot get confirmed results.
Could the EMF,s get similar results to Solar flares?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:24 - ID#246224)
Aragorn III
Full metal jacket!

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:25 - ID#212323)
Oh, and Allen...I knew you had tongue firmly in cheek. No problem by me!
got concern?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:26 - ID#252391)
To Griffen
Share your frustration with the silver market and silver stocks in particular. My concern is that the secret stashes of silver in Europe are much bigger than thought by we bulls and that supply for that source is keeping a lid on prices.

It still hasn't been explained to me why some buddy would lease gold and silver at these very low rates ( 2% per annum ) given the supply demand situation and their presummed knowledge that alot of other parities are leasing silver, probably in excess of its being able to be replaced. Something just doesn't give.

Either I'm crazy and the price of silver isn't going up because of a sever depression coming that will curtail demand, or the leasing out parties are just a blind herd or a conspiring group to hold prices down for their or their allies benefit.

Artifically held prices eventually reverse - I hope this occurs in my life time.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:28 - ID#212323)
...and a full complement of typo's...of which I am embarrassed.
Flawed presentation of a good thought, or no presentation at all being the two options, I hope people will tolerate my haste and missed keystrokes.

got tolerance?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:37 - ID#147201)
Aragorn 111 re typos
No sweat. Excellent exposition. BBL, Charlie

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:47 - ID#212323)
More food for thought...along the lines of paper vs. digital
Not money this time, but stock. How many people might feel more comfortable holding their shares in XXX Corp in their personal possesion with a paper stock certificate rather than digitally on their broker's database during the uncertain Y2K rollover? And how many would feel safer abandoning this ownership altogether? Hmmmmmmmm...

Namaste' to a certain friend of mine. Sheeeeesh!

got a tribute?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:48 - ID#267344)
here... read
US Treasuries end mostly lower, Greenspan looms

House panel blasts CFTC on derivatives regulation

Rubin says up to Russia to implement reforms

India demands vote on nuclear weapons as war crime

Indian nuclear war crimes amendment crushed

U.N. war crimes court statute adopted


(Fri Jul 17 1998 16:54 - ID#187267)
John Disney_A Thanks
Now that I have your formula, do you have an url for geting the dollar/yen ratio?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:01 - ID#286234)
About two weeks. Count the days when Momma starts sitting on the eggs. Some species incubate the first egg, others wait until all the eggs are laid, I forget what Mockers do. Might be a little less than two weeks what with all this heat and all.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:07 - ID#212323)
coming soon to a Kitco near you, I present....Donald! With numbers for the day...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:08 - ID#255284)
Sovs, kumera, woomera, sun spots, geography cooling and warming blah blah
James Davidson of Great Reckoning and Sov Individual fame has bought a large holding in the Wairarapa, North of Welllington.
One of the carbohydrate staples of the pre-European Maori of New Zealand was the sweet potato they called kumera. ( rhymes with Woomera ) . This is not the American sweet potato, very very good, so you gotta come here to try it.
The sweet potato ( which has varieties including GOLDEN flesh ) will die in a frost. The modern Southern limit for the sweet Potato is Banks Peninsular, just north of Christchurch in the South Island. During the mid 17th Century, and before European "discovery" ( duh ) the Global cooling that has been discussed here caused the Southern limit of the Sweet Potato to move several hundred kilometres North, to the Wairarapa.
Davidson some smart cookie or what? Maybe he likes golden kumera too, eh?

But then I have friends who figure that if we're gonna get global warming, best place may be Southland, sure got the best oysters in the world anyway.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:11 - ID#212323)
Aurator...don't leave me hangin'...
So what of sun spots?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:11 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.73. The 50 day moving average is 30.55. A year ago today the ratio was 25.11

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:17 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .239. The 50 day moving average is .250. A year ago the ratio was .285. My database is now complete for the XAU years and shows 32 occasions where the XAU closed in the 70.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, the reading today is #25. The #1 ranking was on August 15, 1986, with a gold price of $383.50, an XAU of 70.21, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .183

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:23 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.00. The 50 day moving average is 55.11. A year ago the ratio was 75.69. My database contains 7472 Gold/Silver Ratio readings stretching over 108 years but is not complete. The average reading is 53.18. This number should only be regarded as an "interesting" number. I can give accurate averages for many years or groups of years. Just ask.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:24 - ID#234218)
@RJ re: Mockers
Normally from the time she starts sitting it's 14 to 17 days. However, in this heat it has been running a day or two less for my bluebirds. After that, they should fledge in 18 to 21 days. Mockingbird nests seem to be real suseptible to preditors. I lost both of the ones we had. If you keep them around though you'll never wonder where the snakes are. They are pretty aggressive with them. Good luck.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:27 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages.
Spot gold $294.44; spot silver $5.39; XAU 73.77

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:35 - ID#210235)
@Hi, glad to see you all back again!
Russian Parliament digs in its heels, won't approve IMF austerity plan.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:38 - ID#253246)
Griffen5 **SSRIF *****bituminous at Bowdens


Silver Standard must have struck bituminous on the last drill holes at
the Bowdens silver project down under.

It just goes to show you the Jim"s ( Dines & Blanchard ) don't know any
more about this company than I did. 4 or 5 years ago I read in Blanchard's newsletter that Silver Standard would have a billion ounces of silver reserves in a couple of years. ( 150 million oz today ) . Dines
in April - May of this year was saying SSRIF had bottomed at $3.50.
You can lose money on your own without paying these two winners
to help you.

You bet that Teck has sold alot of shares for a price drop of this magnitude and that Silver Stnadard may never be able again to
raise any money once they burn the $5 million they have in the bank.
Look for shiity drill results on the remaining holes at Bowdens and
a turd a Silver Reef in Utah

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:42 - ID#26793)
Swiss bank regulators toughen up on derivative risk

Flash Gordon__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:55 - ID#327313)

Tokyo 1989

Nikkei at 31,000 and looking set to head towards 40,000.
With a zero inflation economy and with its super efficient companies orthodox valuation measures do not apply in Tokyo. This is not a market bubble, it is a paradigm shift.

Does anyone remember what happened when the bank of Japan raised interest rates?..

(Fri Jul 17 1998 17:56 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Bart: Was yesterday an instance of the Y1.998K bug? That's one none of us visionaries expected. Glad 'yer back up.

Earl: Been mightily tempted to short the JY, lately. It seems to be forming a base here . . . perhaps because everyone's worried about another round of intervention. Although 200yen/dollar sounds about right to me, and would finally set the yen back to its rightful historical level, I would hate to see gold at $206! Don't see meaningful banking reform being a viable political platform for Japanese candidates, either, so I expect continued stalling, to the yen's detriment. Wish I had a lead belly.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:01 - ID#57232)
Solar Flares and longlines -- y2k related
chas: Appreciate your 16:22. I did not expect that rock movements in the absence of earthquakes could disrupt long lines, but it does not surprise me. Those long lines act like low frequency antennae. What disturbs me is that the Bell Labs people told you it is fully understood. What I guess they mean is that they figured out that the rock movements somehow caused ulf type disturbances. Perhaps you talked to a more conventional engineer type, rather than the more imaginative type that might want to know how the rock movements caused the electical disturbance. That is certainly the more earthquake-relevant topic.
As you know, I was actually referring to the electrical utilities and the potentially potent effects of solar flares. My guess is that the total electrical energy picked up by the power grid during a solar flare would be far in excess of any generated by an earthquake or earthquake precursor. I wish I could remember the date and location of that episode years ago when a solar flare fried at least one utility company. That was before the generous application of silicon chips world wide. The next time we have a big solar flare it will not just be the interruption of radio communications due to ionospheric activity. It will be interruption of the power grid.
The connection with gold is that a solar flare could totally disrupt a large portion of the power grid as well as the communications links -- possibly worldwide. Electronic trade would vanish into the aether. Not reassouring that this could happen near y2k. We would have little advance notice. 24 hours or so. And -- electrical damage to delicate equipment with computers often has a delayed effect -- not all the damage is evident at the time of peak electrical activity. So a major worldwide solar flare could be even more devastating than y2k -- for a time, anyway. Takes time to replace all those computer chips.
So COBOL programmers will not be the only ones in high demand. How about computer repairs, and computer service people? Might be a bonanza.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:06 - ID#210235)
@thought you'd get a kick out of this
Golden notes from the Libertarian Party.

Noticed that things are heating up in Iraq again. Time for a diversion, Bill?.

Hey, everybody, look over there!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:07 - ID#207145)
You're very welcome. I further averaged out of a very hot Europe today and into a utility fund at Invesco. Vanguard is my next stop, as I hate to pay someone elses 12b1 fees. I now have a 50% position in Europe. Monday and Wednesday I will average out completely. There will be no further reason to be exposed to risky equities until 1 Nov. if then. 3rd quarter will not be good for any stocks save Oil. Gold may be bought 1 Nov. I believe we will have inflation in the 4th quarter. Stag flation?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:16 - ID#348286)
Hey when did this thing come back???

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:18 - ID#207145)
3rd Quarter Debacle
Lousy profits. Chapter 3 from Asia. Bad news about the president. Ruble problems. Mexican Peso disaster. Currency problems including the dollar. Funds starting to leave the country. As soon as the October lows are set, a little gold might just hit the spot. At least by 1 january gold should smell Bull Market.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:18 - ID#212323)
Stepping out on a Friday, so here's a reminder...
Don't forget to get your solid or liquid form.
I'll raise a toast to you all. Salute!
I'm gone.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:20 - ID#426220)

Japan HAS ENJOYED an increasing trade surplus and has been the largest
net capital provider ( creditor ) to the world. Both of these factors SHOULD HAVE CAUSED the value of the Yen to increase, not decrease as we have all witnessed. Something has produced this anomaly.

Two factors are causing abnormal monetary and financial conditions in the Land of the Setting Sun: Yen-Carry Trade and the Gold-Carry Trade. Mr. Kutyn provides a clear explanation of both phenomenon.

Considering the deep doo-doo of the Nippon economy, teetering bank system, crumbling Yen, breaking confusion in its government, reigning pessimism and total lack of confidence on the part of the Japanese public, Kutyn believes no measure ( however draconian ) could or would be too drastic to wrench Japan from the very brink of the abyss. And not a few experts tend to agree that as the EAST GOES... SO GOES THE WEST.

Mr. Kutyn presents a thought-provoking hypothetical which contemplates:
"IF JAPAN BACKED THE YEN WITH GOLD... The Far-Eastern economic analyst's hypothetical case situation is both feasible and plausible. The ramifications quite distrurbing.

His considerations are found at the following website. Per custom it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" in the URL before pasting it to the Internet locator.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:20 - ID#288295)
Aragorn III

To your earlier comments about gold being
cheap and a scarce resource....I don't know
anything about this particular company, but 2
months ago their 'World Gold Coins' category
had NO 'Sold Out" Flags on the stock. Now
take a look - especially at the British
Commonwealth, France, Switzerland
categories.....practically all gone !!! Got
Gold? If not, you had better be quick.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:31 - ID#207145)
Mutual Fund Inflows Decline Big Time!!!
Fund inflows into mutual funds declined significantly this past week.
As per CNBC. Not going to wait for the figures. Will give um to you when the segment is shown.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:34 - ID#207145)
No big deal
3.8 vs 5.4 inflows this past week. Lotta hype as usual from CNBC.

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:44 - ID#212323)
Not sure if this is off-topic...
got beer?

Aragorn III
(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:44 - ID#212323)
Whew...Silverbaron, I JUST caught your comment as I was leaving...
Yep, best to take action now...not necessarily jumping in with everything you have, but if a person has not an ounce of gold and yet has the financial wherewithal, why not start the accumulation phase? It's easy. Just do it. A few ounces at a time as your courage allows.

And a clarification...Above ground gold is not scarce relative to annual production, but above ground gold IS scarce relative to all other things on the planet ( except political integrity ) . And of this special material that is scarce relative to all things, the amount that is market-ready for general "consumption" by the sea of paper wealth holders/shoppers is indeed a scarce material. Central Banks would not dishoard their gold to participate in the heyday of a price run-up because what would they get to show for it? Fiat dollars. Govts can make that stuff at the drop of a hat. They can't make gold. And international dealings cannot commence with fiat money alone. They understand too well how they can be cheated by giving up value in exchange for paper. "Er, HOW many zeros did you want on that bill? Hey John! Make a new plate for the press!!"

got ink?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:47 - ID#263254)
Sharefin, calling Sharefin!
Afraid my inquiry got lost in the confusion of a downed server here on Kitco.

With your months and months of research at 12 hours per day, did you run across anything in the chinese language on y2k and it's implications. I haven't found anything yet that wasn't a deadend. I have some relatives that need convincing. Hell, I'd settle for a chinese version of the recent Dines or Kutyn commentary. Just anything to put the fear of markets crashing into them. I'll straighten them out on the Y2K business after they've been convinced of the market situation. Thanks for your help.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:51 - ID#57232)
A little feedback on sunpots - logging off for chores.
Aurator, All: I thought it might be worthwhile to review the average annual sunspot numbers from 1700 to present, using NOAA data. If you want the raw data, please search the net for SUNSPOT NUMBER.
First, the earth temperature is dependent on sunspot activity -- the solar constant rises and falls with average sunspot activity. Periods of no sunspot activity have been documented as being colder. Secondly, an estimate of whether the earth is getting warmer or cooler can be estimated by determining average sunspot activity over the years ( ignore all other less well-known variables for this discussion ) . Thirdly, variation of sunspot activity from cycle to cycle cannot be predicted reliably by anyone I have have been able to interact with ( so far, anyway ) .
What can we conclude about the past to predict the future? Lets consider the interval when the average daily sunspot activity was below 100. Most importantly, sunspot activity has been unusually heavy from 1947 to the present time, with many intervals when the average daily activity was over 100 sunspots seen per day. So, the earth is warm right now relative to other times. Sunspot activity was unusually low from 1700-1727 ( no data before 1700 ) , from 1728-1737, 1740-1769, 1790-1835, 1849-1870, 1873-1917, and 1918-1947. This is a very wide span of years. The coldest times ( according to sunspot activity ) would have been in the 1700's up to about 1727, and 1808 to 1815.
The key point here is that the current 50 year or so period of high sunspot activity is anomalous -- perhaps causing the entire global warming period eveyone is so worried about.
The takehome point is that this high sunspot activity level probably cannot last, as it was not anywhere near as prominent in any period from 1700 to 1947 ( the last 250 years ) . This fits with the Vostok temperature data which also indicate that the earth is usually cooler than it is now, not warmer.
This data does not say when the earth will cool -- probably not this sunspot cycle, though the cycle was delayed. But -- if we have more than 5-10 years of nearly absent sunspot activity, I would strongly suggest thinking about moving toward warmer areas, or getting a snowmobile if you want to live in a snowy area.

Hope this helps. All you really need to do is monitor sunspot activity to know what to do.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 18:53 - ID#267344)
vronsky - message recieved - enough already!!
I think I read that the first time you posted your advertisement way back three days ago. But, would you mind posting it again, just one more time, for the record, please? Thanks!!


(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:06 - ID#267344)
vronsky - in case you missed my post in the last posting period...
Could you please post your ad with that link to that gold-enquirer-hype-page one more time - for posterity! Thank you very, very much!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:08 - ID#267344)
vronsky - never mind the second message
you see the first one.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:15 - ID#269207)
@Aragorn III

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:22 - ID#284170)
The real Japanese deregulation
I heard yesterday that Princeton is forecasting that Japan will REALLY deregulate their postal savings system in December 98. They will then require a much greater diversity for those savings apart from cash/lending. This means that up to US$9 TRILLION will start to come onto investment markets from Christmas 98 on. What will this mean for world markets. I am not sure yet. If you have any ideas, please email me at


Steve Blizard - Perth, Western Australia

Bully Beef
(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:22 - ID#259282)
Beer is gold! Got quite a bit!!!! Too hot around here .
Numbs nerve endings. To the eternal beer buzzzzz! Gold up good. U.S. Your economy is way hot. Tres Chaud! It's the bubble. I was talking to my buddy in Oregon and he is hot to spend and he is the most sensible person I know. I think he is about to make a purchase mistake but it is none of my business. He is in a purchase frenzy. It's frightening.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:23 - ID#57232)
Last post for the day
Silverbaron: Thanks for reminding us that gold that the average American or European can buy is not as plentiful as bullion CB type gold.
All: I just increased my gold stock holdings to about 33% of liquid assets today, based on the likely testimony of the Secret service agents about WJC, and what seems to me a distinct upward trend in gold equities. I think John Disney's comments about South African gold equities looking good due to the drop in the Rand are especially relevant. Also -- anyone notice that the US dollar has been dropping?
My plan is to bail out of my non precious metals equities in the next two weeks to lock in profits, and to bail out of the precious metals equities when they peak in Aug/Sept. I would guess at that time people will begin to realize that the Japanese have not done anything substantial to correct their debt problems.
I do find it amusing that the word is that Social Security funds are going into the equities markets. Sure sounds like the final peak is near -- cant go any higher if all available cash is in the markets. I wonder --who is deciding what to buy?
Anyone know if the FED is y2k compliant? I doubt it. Does it matter if all the small-to-medium size banks are y2k compliant, and some of the large ones, if the FED is not? Perhaps that is why the FED is stockpiling cash. And, then there is the matter of FEMA, and the 500 dollar emergency limit regulation on all cash withdrawals from banks - to be enforced by FEMA, if I understand correctly. And, FEMA now is no longer under the control of Congress? I will post more about what I know about FEMA and the new $500 cash withdrawal rule if noone else has heard about this. Sounds like someone is preparing for a run on US banks. Y2k?

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:23 - ID#220325)
Blooper: Once again
Thanks for taking the time on the explanation. Enjoy the weekend.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:25 - ID#269207)
@One and all
have a safe and sane? you all?....and don get......

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:34 - ID#334219)
Silver Standard is going down like most other silver stocks. However the fact that they got out of their big Russian deal is in for something in the steep fall.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:35 - ID#57232)
Japanese savings -- I stand corrected
Steve-Perth: If those funds are freed up as soon as Dec 1998, that may be sufficient to keep our crazy US equities rally going. All depends on WJC fortunes, and how successful Japan is in convincing the average Japanese to buy Japanese investments and not American or European ones. Any idea of how much money have been freed up already? Might give a clue regarding what to expect in December.
Just imaginge what would happen if the average Japanese decides that their government has done nothing. The old flight to safety with those trillions of dollars would be a sight to see. Forget about sky high price to earnings ratios in the US markets. We have some distance to go before ours resemble the Japanese ones at their peak.

Strad Master
(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:37 - ID#250297)
Quick Goodbyes
ALL: I'm leaving on Sunday for my annual two week stint teaching Chamber Music at the Summer Arts festival in Idyllwild. I know I probably won't be missed since I haven't been posting that much of late ( I lurk unless there is something burning I have to share ) but still, I want to send all good wishes to y'all for the two weeks I'm away. Hope gold does what it's supposed to.

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:40 - ID#284170)
Larouche Edited 17th July 98
To Think Clinton-gate Is Over Would be Dangerous Strategic Error-

STEINBERG: Well, President Clinton went off to China, and within the parameters of the fact that he is not yet ready to tackle the big issue of revamping the entire global financial and monetary system, which is hopelessly bankrupt, President Clinton did a pretty effective job during his visit to China. I'd say that, under normal times, his trip would have been an absolutely extraordinary success. What he did manage to do, was maintain a certain momentum for intensive U.S.-Chinese commercial cooperation. The Chinese government has about $750 billion in infrastructure projects in the planning states over the next five-year period, and big U.S. industrial companies are going to hang or fall on whether or not they can get a big share of those projects. We're talking about major hydroelectric power plant construction, nuclear energy, railroad infrastructure, the kinds of things that we do still have some ability to generate here in the U.S. economy.

So, once it became clear that President Clinton, in the face of a massive attack, was going to hold sway, and carry out the China diplomacy, and basically achieve another level of breakthrough in a U.S.-China strategic partnership, some of the people around former President George Bush, some of the people in the business community who had been waffling on whether to throw their weight behind the destruction of the Clinton Presidency, suddenly saw that there was some action that they wanted to be ``in on.'' So, you have the phenomenon of Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich making what Mr. LaRouche described as a ``religious conversion'' on the question of China--he'd been one of the hard-core China-bashers, or Clinton-bashers, in the recent period. So, what happened, in effect, is that President Clinton's effective foreign policy initiative towards China took some of the steam out of Kenneth Starr's operation because some of the people who were his biggest political backers began equivocating a little bit, largely for the wrong kind of reasons, purely opportunistic reasons, but nevertheless, it threw the calendar off a bit.

Russia: IMF Stop-Gap Measures to Avoid Decision -
EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, with me is EIR Counterintelligence Director Jeff Steinberg. Jeff, Russia just got $20 billion from the IMF amidst dire warnings of the collapse of the Russian economy and even the Russian government. What's going on there?

STEINBERG: It's really, for starters, the global situation that we're dealing with here. The entire global financial system is hopelessly bankrupt, and what we're looking at in the case of Russia is a $20-billion band-aid, attempting to deal with a problem which is basically a patient with a heart condition, or cancer. A band-aid's not going to do the job; $20 billion is a very impressive figure for the IMF to be coming up with, considering that the IMF itself, is bankrupt. What we're seeing here in the Russian case, is the latest scary incident demonstrating the systemic, global nature of this financial crisis.

To just recap the events of the last couple of weeks:The Russian government went into the month of July with a couple of billion dollars a week in debt obligations. They had become addicted to borrowing, like an addicted sailor, and had been issuing these short-term notes, called GKO's, ruble-denominated short-term paper, paying at some points upwards of 120% interest rates on bonds that had 35 days duration. So, this was beginning to catch up with the Russians. Kiriyenko, the Prime Minister, stated at the beginning of June, that if Russia didn't get somewhere between 10 and 15 billion dollars, that it would be confronted with sovereign default before the end of July. This was echoed by Chubais, whom Yeltsin appointed as the special emissary to go around begging for bailout money from all his so-called friends in the Western banking community.

And, so, what happened here is that the IMF, the Clinton Administration, the governments of Europe, were confronted with the prospect of Russia declaring sovereign default on several hundred billion dollars of debt obligations before the end of July. And, this was a situation that nobody was prepared to deal with. So, instead of dealing with it, a great big temporary time-buying package was put together.

In effect, what's going to happen is that, if the IMF board of directors feels that Russia has been able to comply with their draconian austerity demands, Russia's going to get about $6 billion at the end of July, another $5 billion at the beginning of August, the balance in September. And, the idea is, that this money is simply going to go on deposit in the Russian central bank, to be on reserve, to fend off attacks by currency speculators, so there does not have to be either a default on bank obligations, or a devaluation of the ruble, that would turn Russia into an Indonesia-type spiralling crisis, social chaos -- with the big difference being that Russia has 30,000 nuclear warheads.So, you've got a situation in which the actions of the IMF--which are unfortunately being backed up by the Clinton Administration--are nothing more than a short-term time-buying move, because the consequences of not doing that are so scary, and because the Clinton Administration has not yet reached the point that they're willing to step out of crisis management and take the kinds of emergency, systemic reform measures that Lyndon LaRouche has been calling for, for the last year or so.

The consequences of a Russian default? For one thing, the German private banks are sitting on $75 billion in what are already mostly non-performing loans to Russia. If the German banks had to own up to the fact that they're now sitting on $75 billion in bad paper, then this would have major repercussions for Germany; it would therefore have repercussions for the entire Euro system that's coming into being between now and January of next year; a European collapse would bring down most of the systems of--social systems, economic structures, governments, of Eastern Europe. This would be an Atlantic shock parallelling the Pacific shock that is already hitting the U.S. economy, and you would see the whole system go up in smoke.

So, this is a non-solution; the best that people say about this is that it will buy us some time until perhaps the fall of this year, where there will hopefully be some further degree of stability, or somebody will come up with some new bright idea, or, optimally, someone will decide to take the courage of going with LaRouche's New Bretton Woods policy.

EIR: Jeff, I understand the EIR is going to put out a special feature in early August, based on the release of previously classified documents on the discussions around the discussions around German reunification back in 1989. Can you tell us about this?

STEINBERG: Yes, it's very important, and in a sense it's a pickup on the theme we were just discussing about how to deal with this global financial and monetary crisis of extraordinary proportions. In the spring of this year, in fact shortly after President Clinton visited West Germany, Chancellor Helmut Kohl announced that he was going to be releasing, declassifying, German national security documents covering the period 1988-89-90 when the decision was made to go forward with German reunification. There was a kind of a preview of this material published several months back in Der Spiegel magazine, and, judging from the content of the Spiegel excerpts of these documents, it appears that, at the point that Germany went for reunification, in 1989, the German government was under, in effect, blackmail-threat pressure from the Mitterrand government in France, from the Thatcher government in England, in particular, that as a precondition for German reunification, that Germany had to basically sign on to the Maastricht Agreement to create a European-wide single currency, and had to accept that this would all take place at a very, very early date.

So, last week, the documents were indeed declassified and released, and a task force in EIR's Wiesbaden, Germany European headquarters, under the direction of Helga Zepp-LaRouche, is reviewing that material and we're preparing for publication in the beginning of August, a comprehensive report on what these document reveal--with an enormous amount of background material--because this does go right to this question that we were discussing earlier about LaRouche's fight over a period of more than 25 years, for a just, new economic order.

In 1975, when LaRouche proposed the International Development Bank, there was a great deal of interest and sympathy within some people within the German banking and political community for LaRouche's ideas. Particularly, the head of Dresdner Bank, Juergen Ponto, was somebody who already had been thinking along similar lines: The idea of pouring intensive amounts of credits into central and eastern Europe for the economic modernization of eastern Europe, the development of a kind of economic cooperation with the then-Soviet Union, on the basis of building up an economic capability way beyond what the Soviets could accomplish on their own, even within the resources of the Warsaw Pact. For his efforts, Juergen Ponto was assassinated, ostensibly by the Baader-Meinhof/Red Army Fraction terrorists.

In 1975, Lyndon LaRouche himself, was warned that he was on the same Baader-Meinhof gang hit list as Ponto. Ponto was killed, but those policy impulses among some within the German industrial and business and banking community continued. And, in fact, one of the most important advisors to Chancellor Kohl, the president of Deutsche Bank, Alfred Herrhausen, in the late 1980s--up until his assassination--was committed to the same kinds of policies. So, Lyndon LaRouche went to West Berlin in the Fall of 1988, at a point that nobody was looking at the collapse of the Soviet Empire, nobody was looking at the prospect of near-term reunification of Germany; and, he said bluntly, the Soviet System is going down the tubes, for reasons that he had been discussing for years, and that this represented a great opportunity for German reunification. He proposed that the U.S. and Germany work together to pour investment credit into Poland, to use Poland as a kind of demonstration project of how American System economic methods, could take a decimated Soviet-bloc economy and turn it into something that was a real model for successful economic development.

This was an idea that was something that was already in the lines of what Herrhausen was thinking about, and so, there was a kind of environment building up around Chancellor Kohl ( whether he had the courage and the brains to fully grasp this or not, is the sort of a debatable question ) ; but, nevertheless, LaRouche, Herrhausen, were vectoring a kind of policy environment where this kind of thing could have worked. Herrhausen was assassinated, again, ostensibly Baader-Meinhof ``third generation'' in November-December 1989. This came in the context of this intensive blackmail effort, by the British, by the French, on Kohl, basically demanding that Germany commit economic suicide as a precondition for reunification.

Now, the Bush Administration in Washington at the time was sympathetic to the idea of German reunification, but had no objections, frankly, to the German economic machinery being destroyed, as a fee to be paid for Germany reunification. So, nothing was done from the U.S. side, in any way, shape, or form, to counter the Mitterrand-Thatcher gang-up on Kohl. This is the crux of the story. It's critical because right now it's not too late for Germany in particular to turn around and adopt a different policy direction, in partnership with the United States, in parnership with Russia. So, you can envision a kind of foreign-policy alliance among sovereign nation-states, the United States playing the leading role because historically it is the United States that has been the embodiment of the best of these policies, whether it be the foreign policy of John Quincy Adams; the economic policies of Alexander Hamilton; or, the American Century notions of Franklin Roosevelt, toward the end of World War II, just before he died.

The U.S. has to be the policy driver for this; but, Germany can play an absolutely critical role, and bust up this insanity called the Euro and the Maastricht Agreement. Russia is both a great power, and a country of the verge of economic ruin, social chaos, and destruction. Russia has all sorts of motives for why it would want to play a cooperating role in this kind of arrangement. China, as we have already seen, is committed to these kinds of infrastructure-development policies which LaRouche has called the ``Eurasian Land-Bridge.'' And, we do have a certain significant positive step forward in U.S.-China relations with the recent visit of President Clinton.

- LaRouche: Realize the Oligarchy's Fatal Flaw -

STEINBERG: Yes. I had a delightful 3-4 hour dinner get-together in Germany last week with Mr. LaRouche, and his view is that the international financial oligarchy, which, for all intents and purposes, has it's world capital in London, which Prince Philip, the Royal Consort of the British Consort is a leading sort of figure within. LaRouche emphasized that these people do not have a ``master plan.'' They don't have their counter to LaRouche's Bretton Woods and Land-Bridge policy. They're powerful, but they're not intelligent. They don't have a grand design of what they want to do in the world.

What they do have, however, is a kind of a tried and tested strategy for how to survive a period that can only be characterized as a protracted Dark Age. They want that. They favor it

So, what's their strategy? If they've got one, it centers around the idea that they want to control the strategic raw material wealth of the planet. What that means is they've got to dominate the African continent, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and they've got to come to dominate the area of Central Asia that was formerly part of the Soviet Union, and that's now up-for-grabs. They believe that the financial bubble is going to blow. In that one respect these are not stupid people. They're responsible for having created the global financial bubble as a looting mechanism, and therefore they know that that bubble is about to pop. So, for the last several years, they've been systematically divesting themselves of their extended position within the bubble. They've dumped their stock portfolios, and unfortunately, these fund managers have been able to herd a lot of innocent victims into the slaughter, by building massively up the amount of small investors, through mutual funds--who basically covered for the fact that the financial oligarchy has pulled out of the financial bubble.

What they've done instead, is they've locked-in control over increasingly larger percentages of the world's supply of strategic metals, gold, food production, petroleum, you name it. You want to know why it is that the world prices of all these basic commodities: raw material, food production, have been driven through the basement floor? It's because these people are extremely greedy. And, they've systematically used their cartel methods to drive down the prices of these commodities to bankrupt the smaller players to further consolidate their cartel control; because, this process of price collapse has been going on since before the beginning of 1997, when the ``Asia crisis'' hit, and began to significantly reduce physical production of goods and services in Asia.

-Their Program and Ours-

So, it's false to say that the entirety of the reason behind the incredibly low price of food, petroleum, and all forms of precious metals, is simply that ``production has declined because of the `Asia crisis'.'' It's not true. We were documenting these price declines six months, a year, before the ``Asia crisis'' began. So, they're out to consolidate control over Africa, over Central Asia; and, once they've got their hooks into the choke points of raw materials and food supplies for the world, their attitude is: Let the bubble blow. Let the chaos reign, Let the situation deteriorate. Let nation-states disintegrate and disappear from the face of the Earth, particularly destroy every last remnant, every vestige of the United States and the American System of Political Economy, and of diplomacy, based on sovereign nations. They want that eradicated. And beyond that, they really have no concept, they have no master plan. Their idea is: Wait out the Dark Age, knowing that if they can control these choke points of strategic raw materials, they'll somehow wind up on top

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:44 - ID#386245)
G'morning all
I was contemplating a Kitcoless world--a sadder and poorer world it was, too. Goodonyer Bart.

We Antipodeans were getting our plans together for a goldbug raid on Avid. An auriferous takeover of a rival site.

Actually took the missus out to dinner last night. Been wondering who that strange woman was lurking behind my chair!!
Just love the Freudian slip here:

Date: Fri Jul 17 1998 16:02
Griffon5 ( Silver / SSRIF ) ID#377367:
Yesterday Comex stocks hit a 12 year low yet we get nothing in the upward momentum of the mental nor in many
of the silver stock prices. Mean while Silver Standard continues its decent in to the nether regions. It would
appear we are still in a severe PM bear MKT. Thoughts?????
Hope all you mental patients have a nice day.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:45 - ID#347457)
Does anybody else have a problem to get quotes from Yahoo?
Folks, I don't know if Yahoo is experiencing "early Y2K" problem, but all quotes reversed to June 26th. ( at least for me, and I don't have problem to read any other site )

Anybody else see the same thing?:-o

(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:49 - ID#258269)
Same Problem
Miro, I have the same problem with Yahoo

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 19:59 - ID#209265)
JTF, Aurator, Chas et al. . . . Sun- spots flares . . .
causing disruptions in power grids? When you say solar flares can fry systems where powerlines act as ultra-low frequency antennae, what frequencies are you talking about? The wavelength of a 60 Hz radiating EM signal is 3,000 km! The ideal length for a simple antenna is 1,500 km. Not many uninterrupted wire lengths that long, even out west.

Are you talking, say, around 200- 400 Hz?

This may be relevant to mass behavior too. A fellow who studied lunar effects on people's behavior years ago, Rtger Wever, found that he could decouple the lunar synchronisation of people's circadian rhythms if he shielded them from all electromagnetic fields. He proposed that the moon might act by modulating the very-low frequency waves, about 10 Hz, that traverse the earth. This was also proposed to explain the weather effects on people's bahavior & physiology by another German physiologist whom I've lost track of.

Are you aware of any 10 Hz sunspot influences?

I think the scariest thing going on in the world right now is is not Asian deflation or Pakistani nukes- it's that HAARP project up north. John Disney, you're living in the right hemisphere- as far away from the IMF and HAARP as it's possible to get! One organization spreads economic destruction far and wide, and the other spreads ionospheric destruction. Anybody know if the Russian parallel project is still underway?

- Steve

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:05 - ID#269207)
Such a short list, do you think these guys Hired an Attorney?.....or are just goin on the gut instinct....of the clueless....wasn't WJC Orders to the military to not ask and not tell, the solicitation of a criminal conspiracy, and/or a criminal conspiracy, to avoid the Laws of the United States, by the very ones sworn to uphold the laws and Constitution of the United States, as well as a violation of his Oath of office as President as well, since he swore to do the same........

Bully Beef
(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:10 - ID#259282)
Perth , Perth,
Get off the Earth,
And let ,
The green,
Grass grow!

Thank you ...
Thankyou verrry much.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:28 - ID#210235)
@Hi, Dave
Well, the Lib Party does mention that they have amassed a looonng list of WJC violations of the constitution, but I didn't find it perusing their web site.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:33 - ID#269207)
how big is this mother gonna be before SOMEBODY YELLS TIMBER.......

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:44 - ID#252391)
From what I'm reading it looks like Russia is the one to watch for keys to market direction. It frankly is scary!!! This latest bandage of IMF funds does require action on the Duma's part. They left today for vacation. No way to know if a collapse in Russia will be bullish for gold - probably not, nothing else has been.

Devaluation in Russia come September; devaluation in China come year's end?? Black market currency transactions are at a 15% discount in China. Glad its the weekend - going to give this stuff a rest.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:49 - ID#266105)

Old growth.

Pat on the SW Oregon coast.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:49 - ID#269207)
and attorneys.......who are not interested in resolving issues but in creating issues... then it is much easier to obscure the facts of one, when so many will confuse....It only takes one act....and one fact...not ten...or twenty.....just one.....and does make two...pun dear!!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:51 - ID#267344)
Steve - Perth_A, Miro
Steve - Perth_A - Where did you get that Larouche thing?
Miro - The quotes are working fine for me. I have noticed that the Yahoo stock quotes page needs an occasional reload, though.


(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:52 - ID#254112)
@Steve-Perth: (Larouche) Your 19:40
I think a lot of things said in this long post are right, some are, in my opinion, typical LaRouch disinformation. That always leads to a strange mix.
For some reason, LaRouche hates the EURO with the same intensity as his archenemys from the British camp do. Therefore LaRouche people push the version that Mitterand and Thatcher blackmailed Kohl with the Maastricht treaty. True is that Mitterand and Thatcher wanted to boycott German reunification. True is also that the two German bankers who had real vision how to develop Eastern Europe were killed by secret service controlled "terrorists".

But the major mistakes which Kohl made, the way he handeled German reunification financially, was typical Kohl-grown stupidity: -to exchange the worthless East-mark one to one into West-mark and that way throwing hundreds of millions of good money into the throat of communists who had the big money in the East. And, worst of all, giving the economic reunification process a consumer driven emphasis instead of putting the emphasis on infrastructure and working morale and working attitudes of people. This has done a lot of damage to the anyhow confused Eastern Germans, who leared through these decisions a lot about the welfare state, but nothing about the fact that in a capitalistic world you have to work in order to be finacially successful.

I think in his anti EURO propaganda, Lyndon LaRouche uses the means of disinformation, like Kohl being blackmailed into the Maastricht treaty. This gives me the impression that LaRouche himself is a kind of agent. The question is: for what faction of the global financial oligarchy is he working. His group represents a strange mix of very good insider information combined with lies and almost fanatic, but still strangely misguided morality. IMHO.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:53 - ID#210114)
Buckler's Point of View.
The POG in Australian dollars has fallen about $20 in the last few weeks. Does this mean the $US POG will also fall??

Looking forward to Buckler's analysis.

Live Long and Propser.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 20:58 - ID#210114)
The pressure is now on Japan to adopt the western Thatcherite neo-liberal agenda.

"They should privatise" they say. "They should de-regulate" they say. "They should open their markets" they say. "They should be like America".


Japan has trade surpluses; the US has trade deficits.
Japan is the largets creditor nation in the world; the US is the largest debtor nation in the world.

Japan in a recesssion has 4.5% unemployment; the US in a boom has 4.5% unemployment.

Japan has substantially less poverty than the US.

Why on earth should the Japanese restructure their economy like the US??

Food for thought??

Live Long and Prosper

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:08 - ID#269207)
well, I do have my 48" bar, howsomever, I can put back my ol 051 sthil,
and this is not present a problem to me!!! TTTiiiiiiimmmmmmmmbbbbbbbbbbbeeeerrrmf

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:14 - ID#266105)

Ancient forest or virgin timber, I let Madison Avenue decide.
Nice day up in a coastal range lake.

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:16 - ID#284170)
Clarifying Larouche
Hi. Just a note to let you know that I find the Larouche ( dis ) information interesting, & is rebroadcast for your viewing, but not acceptance. I find some of this stuff just as "off the planet" as you may do. But you never know what you might learn. It seems that Larouche is a very strong Clinton buddy. For what that is worth.
He is VERY vitriolic.

Steve Blizard

Steve - Perth__A
(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:23 - ID#284170)
The Larouche Hangout

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:25 - ID#269207)
YES, THAT SOUNDS about like where I am, on River in central ID...and yes, madison Ave. can decide, because, because, just I have it, doesn't mean I will use it, or not use it....It is a tool.. I have and can use.... and so does Madison Avenue, so why don't Madison Avenue just do it..K

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:26 - ID#267344)
Alberich the Dwarf, Steve-Perth_A, and KITCO - answers... must have answers...
dwarf - I share your skepticism of Larouche. And I also agree with you that there is both misinformation and useful information in the comments in question. I have much to think over this weekend. But who the hell is this guy, anyway. Why does he appear to be in the know. And, please excuse my naivety, but what is this Bretton Woods Stuff and why is it so important. I know that it has something to do with the divergence of the dollar with gold. And I also know that it is crucial. Lastly, I know that I wasn't born yet when the agreenment took place. Help, please, everyone!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:30 - ID#267344)
S-P_A - Thank you - interesting link - must go investigate....
also, interesting typo in last msg "agreenment" - what could it mean???

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:35 - ID#93232)
oil prices dropping...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:35 - ID#156161)
Steve - Perth__A
If Larouche is a Clinton buddy my opinion that Larouche is
a depraved blowhard is confirmed.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:37 - ID#411112)
Whether you are left or right this really sucks,World Court Approved

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:53 - ID#373403)
Year M3 ( $bil ) Increase ( $bil )
1990.12 4126.8 $ 60.5
1991.12 4182.1 $ 55.3
1992.12 4193.5 $ 11.4
1993.12 4258.9 $ 65.4
1994.12 4333.6 $ 74.7
1995.12 4595.6 $262.0
1996.12 4935.5 $339.9
1997.12 5383.7 $448.2

Twelve month moving totals
1998.01 5432.1 $471.0
1998.02 5472.2 $474.4
1998.03 5536.3 $504.3
1998.04 5583.3 $508.0
1998.05 5608.2 $521.7
1998.06 5627.1 $517.9

No comment

(Fri Jul 17 1998 21:53 - ID#335190)
USofA-educated Technocrats @ Mexico crisis next???????
Mexican leftist leader attacks "technocrats"

MEXICO CITY ( Reuters ) - Mention the word "technocrat" and you can be sure that Porfirio Munoz Ledo, one of Mexico's foremost left-wing politicians, will see red.

Munoz Ledo, a leader of the Democratic Revolutionary Party ( PRD ) , is at the forefront of a campaign in parliament to call the government to account for its handling of a huge bail-out of Mexico's banks over the past four years.

He believes a generation of U.S-educated "technocrats," long on doctorates from U.S. universities but short on political savvy, bungled the bank rescue and are now asking parliament to rubber-stamp a proposal to settle the affair for good.

With the economy booming in the early 1990s, newly privatized banks handed out consumer loans hand over fist but disaster struck when interest rates soared in 1995 as the authorities sought to rein in the fallout from the peso crisis.

Munoz Ledo cited a case of an individual who had borrowed $400 million -- now on Fobaproa's books -- to develop a building recently sold for what he said was just $5 million.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:10 - ID#257148)
That "Work, Buy, Consume, Die" button that I mentioned last week, it'll be waiting for you at the historic Toronto meeting of the sages of kitco on 31 July, all you gotta do is turn up and claim it when noone's looking.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:13 - ID#210220)
Put that 48" bar on a 068 Magnum with a skip tooth chain and we can drop any capital influx feeding this overgrown bean sprout.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:14 - ID#335190)
July 17, 1998

Sunday vote may change Saturn image

SPRING HILL, Tenn. ( AP ) -- If labor unrest intensifies at Saturn Corp., the company that touts itself as "a different kind of car company" may start looking like everybody else to the public.

United Auto Workers Local 1853 has scheduled the first-ever strike authorization vote at Saturn for Sunday. If two-thirds of the 7,200 workers vote for authorization, the union may call a strike five days later.

Machinists score large organizing win

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The International Association of Machinists won the right Friday to represent nearly 18,000 United Airlines passenger service workers.

The vote -- at an employee-owned airline -- was warmly welcomed by national labor leaders struggling to rebuild their grass-roots base by increasing union membership rolls.

"This win is a great harbinger of labor's new vitality and appeal,"

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:22 - ID#57232)
M3 Growth
The Missing Link: No comment? You need to think like a 'fiat' currency guru. It is ok if the M3 is growing a bit -- you want always to be stepping on the gas. If it goes up too fast, you back off a bit on the gas. But -- the last thing you want is for M3 to be dropping, because then that monetary amplifier -- the velocity -- is dropping, and the economy is about to go into a tailspin. If you wait too long to put your foot on the gas again, and you are too late -- you go right from a recession into a depression. Things got a bit dicy around 1991-1992 when AG opened up the floodgates. M3 and M2 dropped quite a bit. That is probably why gold rallied.
What amuses me is that there is 'no inflation' -- but for some reason whenever I go to the store it costs more. How odd.
My point is that we must have steady inflation all the time, and more inflation is probably necessary if the economy fails to respond to the monetary stimulus. One day that economy is not going to respond at all to the controls, and no amount of monetary stimulus will work. A certainty, like death and taxes -- part of human nature. All that debt and credit is slowly eating its way into the economic fabric -- and steadily rising regulations and taxation weighing down the mechanisms of the small businesses.
Only problem is -- when will the collapse happen? This year? Next year? y2k? 2005? 2010? It is hard to evaluate the resilience of an economy to outide stress. But -- the more unstable economies will go first.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:23 - ID#300202)
@Goldbuggery A Dying Breed????
How many @ Hogtown Kitco Meet???? 4 maybe 5??? Wish I were there.
Wings @ Don Cherry's, Blue Jay's. & finale' @ Club Zanzibar.

Lone Cape Breton Gold Bugger

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:23 - ID#269207)
well I never ran anything but skip tooth for falling, and full comp for bucking..... so whatever.. course that ol 51 has been tuned a lil hee hee
so line em up and mark em les get this show on the road...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:35 - ID#210220)
Don,t forget your shinguards, hate those bruises the chips make. Also had to learn to dance while bucking trees or end up kneedeep. Caution is needed when the felling begins, lots of widowmakers lible to be dropping when she starts to topple so keep your helment on.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:42 - ID#57232)
Solar Flare wavelengths
Steve_in_to: I can't tell you off hand what wavelengths might be most prominent with a solar flare. My guess is that it covers a wide spectrum of frequencies. The best way is to reason backwards, and consider the power grid as an antenna -- at least a hundred miles long. I cannot tell you if the RF impedance of all of those connected grids acts like a giant antenna thousands of miles long - but it might. So -- the grid can probably pick up 200 Hz or higher frequencies fairly well. A DC coupled voltage surge from a solar flare might also do some damage, even though the coupling is very weak -- given the surface area of thousands of miles of power lines. I do know that all antennas can pick up a very high impedance DC signal. If the anttenna is big enough this will be significant. I think part of the problem is that you may be thinking far field zone radiation coupling only. A solar flare would heat up the ionosphere to a few miles of those hundreds of miles long power grids -- and that is near field for the 60 cycles you refer to. So the coupling is much stronger than you might think.
I think we need a power engineer to explain the coupling better than I -- perhaps one that knows about the known detrimental effects of really big solar flares.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:42 - ID#257148)
Dave Sniper
what languish youse fellas speaking? I donunderderstandawordofwhatyoujustsaid

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:46 - ID#57232)
Pacific Northwesteze dialect most likely
Aurator: That is a language unique to some of the most scenic areas of the United States. Like the Pacific Northwest. It can only be spoken with the sound of a Stiehl in the background. A few substitutions are allowed.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:47 - ID#269207)
@Sniper don see no
widows in my backtrail...and deadfalls make it interestin..and the bigger they are the harder them suckers fall.....hee hee tmbr

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:50 - ID#269207)
@13 ft 8" in dia.
that 48" hummer really gotta talk.......^s^

(Fri Jul 17 1998 22:58 - ID#269207)
@of course, when yea got
to top one of them, at a 100ft or so, for a spud pole, then you really get to the rodeo, oh yes, a commin out of chute #3 doin a hunner and three, an a hanging on with things you won believe...hee hee

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:00 - ID#227238)
JTF: The fault effects you discussed earlier may be explained by a huge piezoelectric effect. Stress on the underlying rock setting up a large electric field.

But unless the intensity is changing as function of time, it should't effect a power grid located in the field. ....... Then again, Herr Maxwell was always very difficult to understand. .... {:- )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:04 - ID#57232)
More on solar flares
Steve_in_to: Some of the solar flare energy must be ultralow frequency - think of the 'Northern Lights'. Those beautiful sheets of brilliance have a frequency low enough to be followed by the human eye -- maybe a dozen cycles per minute. Other sources of electromagnetic enrgy will be much higher in frequency as the surges of the solar wind pass over the earth -- all spewed out from a sunspot arc that broke away from the sun, releasing prodigious amounts of energy in the form of electron and proton beams. Only a tiny fraction of the energy is intecepted by the earth. The energetic electrons are trapped in the earth's magnetic field, and can radiate energy to be picked up by earth-bound antennas.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:08 - ID#210220)
@JTF aurator
Your guess is probably correct for Dave. I am in NC. Got a Sthil saw ( 068 Magnum which is the largest Stil makes in direct drive ) after Hurricane Fran and I think that a side effect of using such a marvelous piece of equipment is learning a new language.
BTW, We were discussing dropping the market.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:14 - ID#210220)
@JTF Solar Flares
There will be some dampening due to transformers at substations, but in
center/left US those are scarce.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:15 - ID#347235)
@ Strad Master
You will be missed my friend you may not post often but when you do what you have to say is worth the time to read it. I think I post to often sometimes and dont always say the right thing. Hope you have a good trip to NY and meet up with Reify and Tol1. Wish I could but I will be in Andover Mass that week. WIll keep you posted on possible relocation to Garmisch!!!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:16 - ID#43349)
Dean's law
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, but not right away.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:17 - ID#266105)

Husqvarna. Lefse. Same diff.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:19 - ID#57232)
I only have an 18
sniper: I was in Charleston ,SC when Hurricane Hugo hit -- snapping most trees off like matchsticks at about 60 feet. Had to cut up three 80 foot trees next to our house with my Homart. One got the neighbors MG next door, but missed the house. The MG was only about 18" high when the tree was removed. No kidding! Steel I beams 12" by 12" that made the back of a sign about 1/2 mile away were bent into a pretzel. We had experienced and inexperienced lumbermen from at least 5 neighboring states that year. The average Charlestonian had to guess which ones would not fell the tree on their house or airconditioner. The brush in front of our house was 30 feet high in the street for weeks. Most streets were one way only. I also learned how to connect a generator up to the power of the house without electrocuting the linemen ( did happen to one visiting lineman ) . Repaired the junction box, as all the wires got pulled off the house. Good thing there were no fires. Looked like the aftermath of a war.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:21 - ID#57232)
Sorry - title truncated.
My title was: I only have an 18 inch Homart chainsaw.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:24 - ID#269207)
@Earl you want to see what this
might translate into what is now being applied, I would suggest, you check out the following site

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:25 - ID#390227)
@ clone & Breton Woods
I believe Breton Woods has something to do with pegging international currencies to the American buck. It might have taken place after WW II and according to some like Jude Wanniski who wrote a great book called "The Way the World Works", it heralded an era of growth and prosperity. It might have ended when Nixon took the U.S. off of the gold standard, or something like that............Anybody want to argue that we're still on the gold standard since we can trade dollars for gold any time we want???

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:25 - ID#57232)
G'Nite all! Have to work 7 days straight again.
No rest for the weary, as they say.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:27 - ID#433172)
Still looking for the alignment facts,we ( librarian wife ) have gone thru 2 indexes without finding any reference so far. Can anybody else produce any data supporting the contention that earthquake activity may be increased during planetary alignments? Get me off the hook.
Get some golden wheat people, even a small amount will assure your eating no matter what. Buy physical, accept no substitutes, hard red winter wheat. I'm paying about 17.00 per 50 lb bag of organic, probably cheaper where you are? Take a good look at whats happening to those crop lands. It keeps forever. It malts for beer making too.
We got cut off just when I was proposing the CB's lease and sell their own gold. Makes sense to me, anyone know in fact who the leasee is?
Maybe we will get a moratorium on roadbuilding in the National Forests,and quit subsidizing the timber industry. Keep the Forests for ourselves and our children a little longer, there will be plenty of time to cut it down.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:28 - ID#269207)
@earl try this

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:30 - ID#257148)
I'm a lumberjack, and I'm OK.
thanks for the translations.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:31 - ID#335190)
aurator @ 22:10
aurator: regarding your post July 11 @ 01:46. I am sorry, I did not reply to you. I had intended to thank you for your consideration and thoughtfulness, in thinking of me, and also the purchase of the button " Work. Buy. Consume. Die". I had posted that day ( July 11 ) to others, and I intended to make a separate post to you, but, for some reason, got sidetracked.

Again sorry, and thanks for the reminder. Regarding the Kitco meeting in Toronto ( hog town ) July 31, you suggest " all you gotta do is turn up and claim it when noone's looking." Yes, it maybe possible that that could be a solution to meeting you, and receiving the button eh!

I am unable "at this time", to commit to the Kitco meeting. Although, I maybe able to attend, as you say "when noone's looking" : ) : ) : )
Yes, I would very much like to meet fellow Kitco person's.

Thanks aurator, Take Care

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:32 - ID#257148)
I thought they said "No rest for the wicked" ;-^ )

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:32 - ID#227238)
Dave: You got my interest but the URL doesn't work.

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:34 - ID#240142)
Von Finckmeister & Homestake
All....I reviewed evening discussions for July 15 and saw no reference to von Finck's increased acquisition of Homestake. Has there been discussion of this? If so, please point me in the right direction. Mahalo...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:37 - ID#269207)
@earl, post at 23:28 does
sorry, first has an i for an l and don work ok..enjoy...

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:39 - ID#57232)
I've heard that phrase too!
aurator: I just never refer to myself on that one. But -- my dad always says: 'Don't do anything I wouldn't do'. That is a loaded statement as my dad has done things I wouldn't dare do voluntarily -- such as fly over China years ago and count uranium ore cars with his ex-WWII friends. They used a DC3 armed with air-to-air missles of some kind. Their only protection was a tape recorded in Chinese that warned of the missles. Good thing the Chinese only had a few MIGs in those days. G'Nite to someone I'd like to meet someday, too!

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:45 - ID#257148)
Regrettably, I shall be unable to attend. Perhaps next year, on my way to Aldernay to see the Solar Eclipe on Aug 11 1999 I will get back to To. In meantime...the badge is heading To-wards as we speak..

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:46 - ID#206358)
Some tensions built up these days around Indonesia.There were thousands peoples shifting out from the country,afraid of another "RIOT"!!Just receievd message from the region,read on:

Subject: FW: Riots in Indonesia
of our friends Arifin ( Rafli ) from Medan - Indonesia.
If you like fair and open reports help me to spread the word!
Thank you

We've had actually been thru hell these few days and in the second
day of the riot , the looters and robbers came within 1 km from my
house and everyone was so scared ! You see the scale of the riot was
so big that the authority just couldn't cope with it for the first
days and on top of that , having to adhere to the 'principles' of
Rights , they couldn't do any harm to the rioters which were in fact
out not to demonstrate with the students but to rob and loot - they
could only fire warning shot in the air the rioters went on
rampage as if no police and army were present , by first breaking
locked doors of shophouses and then started looting and in some bad
cases after looting they set fire to us poor Chinese's houses !!In
almost all areas , the youths of 12 - 14 year olds would started to
stone and then forced open doors with crowbars and what-nots and when
they succeeded , women ( grandmothers too ) and children as young as 5-6
years old will come for the spoil ( these are confirmed,

I don't make them up for dramatisation ) .For your information ,there
were many gruesome facts of gross abuses of Human Rights on us
which the western media we see are trying to cover up so as not to
the glorification of the so-called student movement , 99% of property
destroyed belong to Chinese and in some cases mob stood outside
banging away at doors to demand that owners came out and when the
didn't they started the burning and that resulted in one 13 year old
Chinese girl being burnt to death but of course you'll never hear it
from the media here or otherwise.This is what I can confirm right now
in Medan and in others immediate areas of the city and other small
I'm sure more gruesome cases will surely surface later. We even had
several confirmed cases of rapes when they came at night - sometimes
late at night , otherwise mid-nite or even 3 a.m. in the morning !

Many western media portrait these bastards as the poor and hungry
but I don't see any shortage of food or anything in this natural
rich North Sumatera province and don't you know that many sold the
in the side streets afterwards - sacks of rice as cheap as 1/2 the
original price ( we're beginning to experience shortage of it ) and
televisions for a fraction of the listed price ! Have you ever seen
the hungry in any part of this world loot and rob shophouses and then
the loots afterwards Africa and other parts of poor Asia ? If
they worry about their stomachs , how come they burn afterwards , for
what purpose if not racial discrimination ?

As a result of these enormous pressures on us who have been abandoned
by our own protectors we paid tax to , we were forced to form groups
of vigilantes patroling our own neighbourhood and in some cases there
were clashes with these bastard resulting in bloody casualties on
sides but as a result of these vigilant acts , we Medan Chinese had
prevented worse violence on us but we have to give credits to the
reinforcements of special army units from Jawa who were really
professional and were ordered to deal harshly with these bastards.
Sadly the authority seems to always make us difficult and one example
was to issue a warning to us Chinese that we are not allowed to carry
any sharp objects such as swords , spears , hatchets etc. and upon
seeing them will be confiscated which left us with blunt objects such
as baseball bats, hockey sticks and so on.

These vigilants acts in some cases provoke revenge attacks and in one
case , as I have told you before , they came out at night where they
hid in a very co-ordinated way to attack at about 3 a.m. in the
obviously someone ( political or otherwise ) must have co-ordinated it

So yours truly had to switch weapons from a samurai katana to only a
hockey stick, how's that for your vigilante friend, huh?

You see in Medan every Chinese stood up regardless of how much
you had before in the banks - from the poorest to some conglomerate
quality ones ( no joke !! ) and you know what , it actually made us
proud to be able to stick together and in a sense it lessen the fear
in each of us have inside us !! Never have this phenomena happened
for us overseas Chinese here who I'm sure you know pretty well we're
always the target of their fury at any problem/s , WE WERE THE
TRADITIONAL SCAPEGOATS since the beginning of the formation of this
republic !! Peter , do me a favour if you can , if you care for
spread the words around about our sufferings here let the world know
at least your friends preferrably Chinese ones and if you want to
more about the riot you can access and my
suggestions is , DO recommend them to any of your friends who care
these injustices
that had befallen us here !!! Thanks and regards.

Have a great day!
Best Regards, Fernando Tjia

(Fri Jul 17 1998 23:58 - ID#348169)
Toronto Kitcoite Informal Dinner Meeting JULY 30TH 7:00 P.M.
6 Pak - Please take note and sincerely hope you can make it! Going to be a good bunch of minds there ( about 10 ) and when yourself and ROR seemed to indicate the other day that you would like to come we made a couple more reservations just in case ( Balcony space at the restaurant is severly limited and we want everyone to have a nice view! ) . Anybody wanting to attend please e-mail me at:
Have a great weekend everyone!