Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:05 - ID#207145)
And of course some Yen calls
Oil could be a little while working off supplies. Like paint says 1550 or so.
Those drillers will sizzle, as they are so cheap. Kinda like gold. WOW. If we know what the commercials are doing, speculators still have to catch on. I figure we are on the VERGE of a lot of things.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:26 - ID#287186)
Aurator: re skunks, Democrats and politicians
Colorado's Democratic Attorney General in 1985/6 sued every property owner in the California Gulch area - including every property owner in the city of Leadville ( population: about four thousand ) for access to their property for soil testing for heavy metals. In that suit he also left open the door for the State to hold them responsible for any contamination thus found. Great deal, eh?
Environmentalists and EPA sympathizers are dog meat around here.
This county is overwhelmingly Democrat
{from the old Climax mine union days}.
This Democrat attorney general ran for re-election in 1986.
In November 1986 the voters of this county overwhelmingly
voted to re-elect the dirty rotten skunk who had
sent them a manila envelope containing the suit for access.
A candidate could be a skunk stinking to high heav en
but if he is a Democrat he would get this county's vote.
In 1992 and again in 1996 this county's voters
overwhelmingly voted for Clinton.

P.S. Yes I am NUTS to remain here!
But I hope they all leave for the lowlands
during the fall and winter of 1999/2000.
That may be a Silver lining in the Y2K cloud.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:34 - ID#287186)
Aurator - re Gold Kiwis
Do they come only in 1oz or are there 1/2. 1/4, 1/10, and maybe 1/20.
I am considering buying one of each of Kiwis, Kangaroos and maybe Maple Leafs too. It would be nice to have a year's set but I shan't pay a high premium to get it. I am primarily buying bullion in tradable sizes.
Not much - in Kitcoite standards...
but a beginning I maybe can afford.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:42 - ID#190411)
From the little that I know, Franco-Nevada ( FN.TO ) might give you your gold and gas play in one tidy bundle.
BTW, Fred copped my congratulations on the Barron's article.
Kaplan has been so right on his attention to COT's.
Goldfevr; Keep your nose to the ground on those COT's.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:43 - ID#207145)
Could it be...7% long bond
You're darn tootin. Surprise, surprise. Lower rates, yeah right. Grab your buts, here we go DOW JONES.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:46 - ID#286230)
BRE-X Continues
Bre-X should not be class action: Nesbitt

The Financial Post
Nesbitt Burns Inc. says investors trying to recover some of their losses
from the Bre-X Minerals Ltd. fiasco in Ontario court should not be
granted class-action status because they don't have enough in
If a motion to certify Bre-X as a class action fails, each shareholder would have to pursue the
bankrupt company, its directors, their own brokerage and its gold mining analyst independently.
Bre-X was worth about $6 billion at its peak in the fall of 1996.
Nesbitt -- one of the biggest boosters of the Calgary exploration firm -- traded Bre-X in 10,160
different client accounts between September 1995 and May 1997, general counsel Michael
McGrann said in an affidavit filed Friday. Each client has a unique relationship with his or her
broker, McGrann said.
"Some clients are active short-term traders, while others are long-term investors. Some private
clients want little or no information or advice from their investment adviser and make all
investment decisions on their own, others constantly seek information."
Clients don't always follow their brokers' advice and it's not uncommon for investors to have
accounts at more than one brokerage house, he said in the 43-page affidavit.
Nesbitt -- named in 15 other lawsuits in the gold fraud -- said it plans to challenge certification
in a huge Bre-X class action filed in Texas.
Nesbitt argued allegations that mining analyst Egizio Bianchini was negligent in his research
reports don't stand up in a class action because not everyone who bought shares was relying
on his advice.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:49 - ID#207145)
Thanks. Mr Dines likes that one too. FN.TO.I like PTEN, and CDG as drillers, the way I'd play oil.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:53 - ID#190411)
Kaplan also says..
Buy sp500 puts.
Very low premium at the moment.
His reco is June99 and dec99 leaps.
One way to hedge our torpid goldstocks.
Where's cherokee?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 00:54 - ID#207145)
Expecting correction, not crash
But it will be nasty. Gold should get traction from an oversold conditio ( to say the least ) . The CRB looks to have bottomed.. Take a look for yourselves........ not set in stone, but I would bet on it. Looks interesting.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:15 - ID#207145)
FN.TO does not compute. Are you sure those are the correct letters to Franco Nevada?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:17 - ID#190411)
Why should I hold this Teddo arf-arf if it is going in the toilet with all of the unhedged producers?
How do they loose money with their fabulous hedge program?
Why did I buy this crap?
Coopers and Lybrand are their accountants.- Clueless is our game.
Coopers audited another co. that I had shares in. Bankrupt in a month.
Way cool...... Coopers is the fount of knowledge in the Au biz.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:22 - ID#190411)
FN is the symbol on the Toronto exchange. Hence -- FN.TO .
I don't know diddly about anything, so, this is not financial advise.

If you are a lawyer, then this does not apply.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:25 - ID#207145)
You and Dines are a good pair. It was at least worth my checking into, if I can get the NYSE symbols. All lawyers should be summarily shot.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:40 - ID#285392)
Squirrel --404 was in reference to your message not silver
In other words I could not access your message because it had 404 on it. Try it yourself to see if it happens when you try to access it. The confusion is worth a laugh though.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 01:52 - ID#190411)
As usual, noboby wants this dog. Super cheap cuprum, and a dollop of aurum. They make money, and their labor costs aren't about to skyrocket.
..... Better than ABX.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:03 - ID#284255)
I can't read Chinese so don't remember seeing anything Y2k.

Maybe you can glean something from here.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:10 - ID#190411)
I'm sorry for being unremittingly critical of Barrick.
( American Barrick. )
They did send me two lavishly printed annual reports.
The printing costs for the annual report seems to have consumed any proceeds from the mining operation.
I voted against Mr. Mulrowney. Yeah, I know. He has inestimable expertise in heap leach technology, having been a leech in the past. But, he reminds me too much of George Herbert Walker Bush.
The last time I had stock in a company heavily populated with politicians, it went from 29 to 6 in short order.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:18 - ID#284255)
Grocery Stores and Y2k - From a grocery store managers perspective.
I'm the manager of a grocery and drug combination store which is part of one of the top five grocery chains in the country. The store is on track to do about $40 million this year, well above the industry average and close
to the top of my division. We employ over 200 people, most of them full time. Each week we strive to satisfy over 50,000 customers. I hope this establishes my credentials. For perhaps obvious reasons, I'd rather not
say where or with whom.

The closing months of 1999 should be interesting. I expect to see a great deal of panic buying, particularly in the last few weeks of December. That's not difficult to foresee. How well our supply network, both
company warehouses and local vendors, can keep pace with the increased demand remains to be seen.

In any typical week, we're out of stock on somewhere around 2% of theSKUs. Some grocery stores are higher, few are lower. By 12/1/1999, I would expect that figure to rise to 40%. By the end of the month, I would not be
surprised to see out-of-stocks at 75%, and whatever remains will be the slower-moving items. Keep in mind, too, that that could mean three to four times my typical sales for that week, which is already the best or second
best of the year. That means extremely crowded aisles and extremely long lines. Beware.

On 01/01/2000, we will be at the mercy of our electricity and telecommunications providers. Should the electricity fail, our backup generators should last us around six hours. During that time, power is routed to only the registers ( minus the POS [Point of Sale] scanning system ) , the pharmacy computer system, and a few lights scattered around the store. Freezers are down, HVAC is down, all other electrical systems are down.

After six hours we are completely in the dark. The next time you are at your local grocery store, take note of the lighting. Most stores, mine included, have a lot of glass at the front end of the store and nowhere else. If the store were to go black, the back half of the store as well as the side perimeters are virtually unnegotiable without a flashlight.

The registers would be completely useless. Imagine how long the lines would be if we had to run around getting price checks on every single item, hand-write receipts, manually calculate sales tax and total, etc. Some
problems could be alleviated somewhat: hand-ticket the merchandise ( extremely time-consuming and virtually impossible given our present payroll constraints ) , ignore the sales tax, etc. We would become something
like a really big, really empty, really dark, and possibly really cold indoor farmers' market. Not a pretty picture. In all honesty, I would lock the doors. So would my competitor down the street ( who doesn't even have
six hours of backup power ) . So would everyone else in town, from the 7-11 to Wal-Mart.

This is not idle conjecture, by the way. Perhaps some electricity providers will be ready by the big day, but my local electric company began its remediation efforts earlier this year. I have little confidence that they
will make it. The loss of electricity is a very real threat.

And that's just electricity. Even if electricity were to work, disruptions elsewhere could close me as well. Should the phones not work, we would not be able to transmit orders to our warehouse. Should transportation
difficulties arise, we might be unable to restock even if we were able to place orders. Should there be civil unrest, well, I'm not going to place my life at risk to stop the spikey-hairs.

I would love to be the hero and keep my store open and feed everyone who needs food. I like selling food. But I can foresee many difficulties in achieving that. Quite frankly, at this point, such a task seems improbable.

We can live without The Gap. We can live without science fiction booksellers. But should my store, and my industry, have to lock its doors for an extended period of time, many will suffer. I welcome all comments
and will attempt to answer any questions.

Best wishes, Matt Grocer Guru"

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:28 - ID#190411)
Who is going to bitch and moan about bandwidth if you post some bluedress stuff?

As a manufacturer of high precision metal products, I can tell you that the present rush to fill orders will cease in about one month.
We are swamped with rush stuff now, but, the order book is light soon.
The tool and die and moldmaking business is a good early indicator of future manufacturing activity.

The construction companies in this area ( southeastern Wisconsin, USA ) are out looking for work.-- I haven't seen this for the past six years.

Have you heard from mozel? I miss that guy.
I hope that your new house has floors inlaid with that yellow stuff.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:44 - ID#31876)

(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:56 - ID#284255)
Sorry for being negligent of late.
But life is very chaotic.
Much painting and preparation
And no time for the net. - sigh -

Anyone want to buy a beautiful Y2k retreat in Cairns???
Auction on the 5th Sept - open house in 3 weeks.
And so much to do.
We have a truly beautiful sprawling historic home.
Such a shame to pass this on.
There are no others to compare this one with in Cairns.
It will be worth it's weight in gold soon. Very soon.

So this is what keeps me so distracted from the web.
Much to do and organise.
No rest till the deed is done and the race is won.

Here is the collection of "Blue Dress" poems.
A little too much bandwidth.
But I have been contributing little of late.
And little time to do so in the future.

So enjoy and Namaste.

The Blue Dress

With deepest faith she sensed
The mystery and the freedom of the sea.

Heard without listening
The surge and whisper of the surf.

Pensive she stirred the sands,
Silent, felt the wisdom of unquestioned ages.

Smoothed the folds of the Blue Dress
Stirred by the free wind.

Her mind awakening to the ancient songs of freedom,
The placid strength and sweet caress
Of wind, the gentle singing of the quiet sea.

Voiceless her heart sang
All this I am
All this is part of me.


I saw this beautiful girl go by
T'was a windy day
And the wind moulded the blue dress
Round her beautiful body
In a most wonderful
Delightful and feminine way

Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast

And my eyes rested there
Happy moment!
Then drifted on to her hair

Delightful, her dark hair
Silk smooth, a lovely tress
Curled gently down to her shoulders
Which are rounded and shapely and fair
Then flowed round her beautiful features
And fell, soft, on the lovely blue dress

And her lips,
They glowed in the sunlight
I could see they were soft and cool

And her eyes
The mild eyes of a roe deer
I nearly drowned in that pool!

She smoothed the blue dress about her,
The shoulder,
Gave a cold unfriendly goodbye
And she flaunted those hips
As she passed me
With a flash and a gleam in her eye

The language she used
As she passed me,
Tho never a word she said!

So she's gone,
The girl in the blue dress

But I; I still have the beautiful blue dress
Wind blown and bright
In my head


There is a calm, a low and murmurous surf
Beating and curling on warm and golden sand
Silent and dark the trees that line the turf
Of the low dunes where sage green grasses bend

Sea wears her beautiful blue dress
Displayed in sweetest calm simplicity
And quiet the day and still and quiet the sea
All this for you my dearest love, and me

This surely is the Lotus flower land
To sleep and dream with you on golden sand
To play and rest in peace
To wake, to love, and then to sleep again

Yes there are storm wracked seas
And far and distant strands
Where great ships ply their trades
And many far and foreign lands
And fishing fleets - a fantasy
Of men and boats that throng
Far havens and the sea miles long
And many thousand islands of the sea

And there are great wonders
A bright and teeming life
Rich treasure of caverns
Cliffs and populous plains
Hid in the deep waters
Of the seas great mains

But none, not one of these distress
This gentle seas most beautiful blue dress
Nor the still peace, my dearest love
Which we this day
And in this place possess


Days end,
And night will fall again
But that sure night
Dark, cool will be for the delight
Of other men.

For me, neither sunset
Nor evening star
Nor the silver moon
For me - not one regret.

The good days - the beauty
Will flow on as before,
New springtimes blossom
But for me, nevermore.

The green worlds loveliness.
Renewed; the seas blue dress,
The thin cream curd along the shore.
Strong tokens all that I have loved
Lost - evermore.

For me
The dark unknowing night.
Or me - reincarnate to be?
Or the Eternal Light?
Oh Thou Immortal Love
The last deep mystery.


Swiftly a cold night fell
And such a night

Crisp and clean the mountain air
The stars a blaze of glory
The dark like velvet there
And seeming
Fit source of the long dreaming

And sudden, in the still dark night
In a moment of quiet
We heard a Keening

We stilled our breathing
Better to hear -- half heard
An almost silent ring
Unbroken, smooth -- sustained
A fragile delicate thing
It stirred the heart

A note of half heard silence
Heard, pure and strong, but then
A half note -- just a ring
Above the edge of silence

Heard only
Under the very edge of the great quiet
A hidden edge
Under the soft purple of the desert night
A tone one felt to be
The sigh of the edge of the world
As it sweeps immensity

Never to be forgotten
Mythic voice of the world
Singing to men
Of the lone voyage -- vast spaces
Eons of time and of lonely places
And a music
Far far beyond our ken.

Today there is no lamentation
No sighing of ancient sea
The blue dress dancing, light glancing
The foam lace floating so free
On golden sands, our children
Laugh and sing at their play
Not knowing, and praise be the Maker
Utterly unafraid
Of the long slow tide of each day

There is a sighing and moaning
Of the ancient slow heaving sea
The deep swells lifting and falling
The grey combers heavy yet free
The fishermen gather their nets in
Their sea eyes keen to the glass
Weigh wind and wave with sea wisdom
Hard learned from the sea,
And know that this too will pass

There is an hissing and surging
Of heavy sea beating hard shore
The rage and the raven of undertow
And the burst and the crash and the roar
And the hard men who sail the great seas
Know well to seek haven and calm
Home, wife and child and the warm hearth
Safe harbour
When the great seas thunder in storm.


Grey skies grey seas, grey winds so cold
Blast polar seas and tropic gold
Bitter the storms of polar seas
Cruel the cyclones tyrannies
Such storms good seamen justly fear
But brave seas moods through all the year
Tho' grim the toll the grey seas take
Of human folly or mistake.

Today her mood is a caress
Flaunting the beautiful blue dress
Sweet dream of peace; and I too dream
With her of peace this day, this night
By quiet sea and calm moonlight


The sea is blue and the sky is blue
Round half the world above it
And the sea's decked out in her old blue dress
With the lace foam frills upon it.

The old blue dress is soft and gay,
The gold sun is her bonnet
A soft breeze stirs the old blue dress,
And the white foam frills upon it.

Most beautiful the sea today
Sweet peace is quiet upon it,
And sun gold light warms golden sands
And all who wander on it.

Most beautiful the sea today
The cool breeze gently blowing
The blue sky arching over all
And the blue dress flowing.

Most beautiful that old blue dress,
With its white laced frill of foam
Most beautiful the warm gold sun
My heart, and my desire is home.


(Sun Jul 19 1998 02:57 - ID#373284)
Namaste' to all...regarding the discussion earlier on FN.TO and oil and gas
leases I believe you should look into EN.TO Euro-Nevada is the sister company to FN.TO and as far as I know they control the majority of the oil and gas leases. I am not positive on this, but it does warrant looking into.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:02 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' regarding your credentials...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
Your word of honor is good enough for me...the content of your character is readily exhibited in your posts...nuff said..uh huh...

A gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...ahem...while it still floats that is...

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:06 - ID#373284)

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:11 - ID#31876)
Florida Company Announces Important New Medical Uses For Silver

HIV is mentioned...

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:15 - ID#373284)
Pardon the confusion on my part re: FN.TO & EN.TO from Dines at gold - eagle
Among the biggest gainers in our Supervised Lists are Euro-Nevada ( EN.TO ) and Franco-Nevada ( FN.TO ) . For the purpose of this article let us refer to both companies as "ENFN," as they are in reality only one company, with the same management. The stocks are virtually unknown in the United States yet, in our opinion, are as close to a "sure thing" for further growth as anything we've seen in a long time. We have enormous respect for the brilliant management team of Chairman Seymour Schulich and President Pierre Lassonde, and would like to report on a recent meeting your editor had with Mr. Schulich.

Historically, Euro and Franco were kept separate for taxation efficiency, but they really should be merged, and probably will be at some future date. For the moment, there are slight differences. Within these Toronto-based companies, Franco includes oil, gas and base metals, while Euro operates in the Pacific from an office in Australia. So Euro is the international arm and Franco is in Canada and the United States, with all the oil in Franco. Euro is starting to operate in Latin America, with royalties from French Guyana and Mexico, and is looking at other Latin-American deals.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:16 - ID#341234)
What makes Kitco great? The posts.
ERLE, please keep us informed on what you see in the economy. By the time the government reports come out, they are old news, if you can even trust them at all. You noticed the similarity between Barron's and Kaplan also. I think Kaplan knows his stuff. For the lurkers, Kaplan's site is a must read at

sharefin, you are at the center of one of the keys to Y2K. Thank you for a detailed inside look at your store and what may happen. You will be one of the first to know if a panic develops.

I am a Manufacturing Engineer with a computer company. From what I have seen, fixing a computer problem becomes exponentially more difficult when there are multiple failures in a unit. I would guess that in any system, the same is true when multiple failures occur. Y2K could represent the ultimate in multiple failures.

I wrote a payroll program for the last company I worked for that is currently in use in about 6 of their U.S. factories. The company is a privately owned apparel manufacturing company. The payroll program was supposed to be replaced by a new computer system by now, but that project is way behind schedule and may never be completed. I doubt they will even bother to check if my program is compliant. Lucky for them, I did take the time to make it compliant, but I am sure that it is an exception. I know the payroll system in 2 of their Mexico plants will fail, and I doubt they will realize it in time. My point is that there are a whole lot of little programs out there written by guys like me that will not be tested or fixed, guaranteed.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:22 - ID#284255)
Judging the pain in my brain,
I guess I had a few gulps to you last night.

A great party for the fishermen who must soon be fishing.
They are soon to leave for 4 months at sea.
I am almost jealous - as it was, my way of life.

Sorry to disturb you re the isle that is long.
I know not of it, but read that which the others talk of.
Sounds like a nice place to depart from, for a world cruise...

Big Bill Gates is in Cairns/Port Douglas at the moment.
Has his yacht ( didn't know they made em so big ) in town,
And whispers abound that he's toying with the idea of buying up the 'Mirage Marina' plus more.
Guess it's just small change to the man.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:33 - ID#31876)
More on Silver as Used in Medical Treatments

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:43 - ID#284255)
Thanks, but that article was not mine, but one picked up off an email group.
It does show an interesting perspective from a different viewpoint.
And one that will affect us all soon enough.

Sounds like;
Got gold, got grub and got guns.
Will soon take on more meaning than the catch-cry it is today.

There is also chatter on this email group of laws being enacted in the US.
Relating that to have stored over 30 days food is hoarding and will soon be illegal.
Perhaps some of you who have closer ties might know more of this?
Is this law a relic of the constitution from the depression years??
Or a new one soon to be put to power???

Mozel is sorely missed - not 404'd but alienated somehow.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:54 - ID#341234)
To: sharefin
You tricked me! Nevertheless, it was a great post. Please continue to post gems like that whenever you see them.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 03:58 - ID#255151)
Gold and Millennial Family Matters

Got a brother who came down for a visit in Indy. BTW, his name is not Russell. I brought up the subject of Y2K. I asked if he had heard about it. He said yes. I asked if he thought it was serious. He nodded. He then began asking about how much Gold I was buying, where I'm storing it, and where I buy it. We discussed bank runs, market panics, and safe areas. Surprised the hell out of me. I thought he would be dismissive of such wild, improbable things. My little sister is a skeptic on Y2K. Haven't asked big sister about this yet. So there you have it. Of the 4 sibs, one is a doubter, one is a believer, one has yet to be determined, and one is a raving lunatic: ) )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:12 - ID#31876)
One More Article About Silver's Uses

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:19 - ID#255151)
Hoarding Laws

If they enact these laws, it would be one of the most idiotic and criminal things this government has done. The government should be encouraging as much self sufficiency as possible while all our systems are intact. Families may live or die based upon such things as stored food supply. If they pass such laws, then I will quietly and politely ignore said laws. If they get aggressive and nasty with enforcement, then it's time for 1776 again.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:42 - ID#393224)
G'day all
Hi Auric. Mate, hoarding laws would be the height of stupidity. So expect the US gubbmint to institute same. That way there will be even more people in line at the soup kitchens ( and under total control of the bureaucraps-no spelling mistake ) .

EB--g'day. Hope you don't stand behind an elephant, mate. Actually , we Kitcoites have been behind an effluent elephant for a long time. I'm so covered in...err...ahem...don't know if it'll ever wash off.

Golden Cheesehead--Lihir Island just disappearred, mate. Send me your share certificates as it is winter here and I'll use 'em in the fireplace.

Bart--no copyright??? Is your legal defense fund running low?? I was hoping that you would assist me in my Kitco slander suits.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:45 - ID#230376)
Raving loon-a-tic.....Poet lauriate....the ERLE that lives in Racine..

Good day from the chilly Midwest ! Auric...which one are you and I? and your posts are magnificent..

ERLE... if Rauschs' in Milwaukee is still open, let's get together for a tall, GOLDEN glass of weissbier some time.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:47 - ID#255151)
From Senator Bennett

Speaks of probable disruption to nations critical infrastructure ( last paragraph of article ) --

(Sun Jul 19 1998 04:54 - ID#230376)


(Sun Jul 19 1998 05:09 - ID#255151)
Nick of C, Ersel, Fred, et al

Nick--Sorry to hear about Lihir. As I am closer to Herr Cheesehead, perhaps I had better collect his shares. I'll send a currier his way to pick them up at no charge. Also, you may be right about our gubbmint. Ersel--We are the sensible ones, of course! Wondering how La Nina will affect the hot and sticky midwest! Fred--Dittoes on your Kitco comments. Good post on your software writing experiences. That was another example of the educational value of this forum.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 05:16 - ID#284255)
One article Clinton should have read before his speech.
Y2K Problem: The Sky Isn't Falling

Followed by
Senator Bennett: Says US Is Flying Blind

(Sun Jul 19 1998 05:28 - ID#284255)
Which side of the argument is hilarious???

(Sun Jul 19 1998 05:40 - ID#284255)
Buy more gold.
Banks to protect themselves against millennium bug customers

Banks are becoming increasingly worried that they may be exposed to risk if their customers fail to take action to counter the year 2000 computer bug.

Some banks are planning drastic protective measures following a report on the problem.

The report released by the Reserve Bank and industry regulators says that with less than 10 per cent of customers prepared for the new millennium, the financial and operational risk to banks could prove substantial.

The level of a customer's exposure to the computer date problem is already affecting how much they can borrow.

And if it is not dealt with, some banks are even threatening to cut off access later next year.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 06:06 - ID#284255)
Perception sort of becoming reality???
Y2K Task Force Chairman Discusses the March 1999, Debugging Deadline

Alarmists serious about 2000,4,24346,00.html
"I would not allow my family to be in New York City for millennium weekend,"
"I expect New York to resemble Beirut if even a subset of the Y2K infrastructure problems actually materialize,"
The initial chaos could last weeks or months, followed by a 1929-style depression.
"could be the biggest problem that the modern world has ever faced."
"The people firing the weapons will not be the Rambo wannabes, but people like you who have no alternative to taking up arms in defense of your family and your own life and property,"
Will The Millennium Bug Halt Chip Lines?
Consortium officials said more than 90 percent of the equipment failed in initial Y2K-testing.
YOU SUNK MY BATTLESHIP! ( Navy Software Dead in the Water )
Another Myth - We Must Fix all the Bugs To Have Power
Some good news out there.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 06:14 - ID#284255)
Last but not least - the Y2k dilbert site

(Sun Jul 19 1998 06:39 - ID#284255)
E-Gold snippet

(Sun Jul 19 1998 06:56 - ID#348127)

Dick Mills article has to be the stupidist Y2K pisce of literature that I have yet read. This is one guy does not fully understand the scope of problems that we will be faced with. Sorry Dick, but you couldn't sell that trash to even the optomistic crowd.

Man I hope this isn't the type of propaganda that faces us over the next year. Not only would I not buy it, but is sickening to hear such garbage.

Go Gold -nice finish Friday

(Sun Jul 19 1998 07:05 - ID#284255)
FAA contingency plans

And the review + comments

Y2k for the layman

Get out of debt before Y2K? Why???

Don't bank on the potatoes - ( Bank on gold )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:07 - ID#284173)

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:07 - ID#29048)
Gold may get a boost from strengthening Yen this week...,15

Dollar May Fall Vs Yen As Japan's Next Leader Seen Speeding Reform

Dollar May Fall vs Yen; Japan Seen Speeding Reform ( Repeat ) ( Repeating story published July 17. Changing dateline. )

New York, July 19 ( Bloomberg ) -- The dollar is likely to extend losses in the coming week on speculation that Japan's next prime minister, to be chosen Friday, will accelerate efforts to lift the economy out of recession. ``The market is optimistic that the new leader will push through aggressive, growth-minded reform,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan & Co. in London.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:10 - ID#284173)
MAR 575 Call Options
Just bought above @ $0.27 a couple of days ago. Go Silver!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:14 - ID#207145)
Why are 10 year maturities
yielding less than the fed funds rate? Does someone suspect the US dollar has peaked. If rates are dropping why not go long. Intrest rates are going up.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:21 - ID#29048)
Barron's Marketwatch....
Pomboy Capital
2 Pickwick Plaza, Greenwich, Conn. 06830
JUNE 30 ~ We are certainly out of step with mainstream thinking, which in the past has been a virtue, but now contrarian investors get trampled by the momentum crowd. Consider the following: For $6 billion, you can buy Barrick Gold, which gives you 60 million ounces of gold, of which 10 million have been sold forward at over $400 per ounce. Or you can buy an Internet stock for the same $6 billion with no net worth, no earnings and minimal sales. The advantage of the latter is that its stock is going up as the momentum game defies the laws of gravity, at least temporarily. If you don't like gold you can also hold U.S. dollars, which under the auspices of the Fed have lost 95% of their value since the Fed was formed in 1914. We are in the right place, waiting for reality to set in.


(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:37 - ID#255151)
Thoughts After Reading The Captain's Latest

The SE Asians, Japan, China, and the US are pumping money like mad into the financial system. The thing is, all this Asian money goes in to US dollar denominated assets like stocks and bonds. So pump as they will, it only serves to prop up the US stock and bond market. It really does the Asians little good.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:41 - ID#207145)
It preserves their capital, so they can live to fight another day. When our market breaks, their capital returns "to fight" in their own economy, not having suffered depreciation.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:46 - ID#207145)
When Asia leaves market, stick
a fork in the US dollar, wait for the debris to clear, then buy gold.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:49 - ID#345321)
Sharefin - thanks for the Dilbert Y2K site - I bookmarked it.
Make sure Tolerant1 sees it - it contains some funny reading.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:50 - ID#207145)
Imponting inflation BIG TIME
If the US dollar turns down, just imagine how much inflation we would be importing from China and Japan. Wow, appreciating Asian currancies. HOLY COW.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:53 - ID#207145)
Gold does poorly in fast markets to the down side. I think one needs to see a real trend before catching even more knives.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Jul 19 1998 08:55 - ID#345321)
Asia in a NO WIN situation...............
Sunday July 19, 4:48 am Eastern Time

FUND VIEW-Japan still a threat,no saviour to Asia

By Sarah Davison

HONG KONG, July 19 ( Reuters ) - Upheavals in Japan threaten the worst of all worlds for the rest
of Asia, analysts said.

For months, Japan has been described as Asia's ``locomotive,'' suggesting that the world's second
biggest economy has the power to lift Asia out of the doldrums.

Not so, say analysts.

``We continue to believe what happens to Japan will have an asymmetric impact on Asia,'' Fred Hu,
economist and head of research at Goldman Sachs, said recently. ``Bad news out of Japan will
make life worse in the rest of Asia, but good news out of Japan will not be the salvation for Asia.''

(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:06 - ID#207145)
Could someone tell about Getchell Gold
Seems volatile, but profitable, if timing is right. I plan to be a laggard. No more knives please.

Steve - Perth__A
(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:23 - ID#284170)
McIlvancy Newsletter on China
Long Article. From Steve Blizard - Perth W.Aust.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:40 - ID#432298)
Don't forget about the GSR stock. Some good news will be comeing out on it over the wires possibly this week, if not, next week.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:49 - ID#207145)
I looked at a chart of GSR, and it's still in a downtrend. Also went back 3 years. Getchell is above water. Not that GSR won't do fine. I'm looking for a rocket.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:52 - ID#207145)
Gold and Oil drillers
Will power ahead when the time is right. Who knows when that will be. I plan to be late, as I will look for a definate change in direction of commodities. Then the old call option would come in handy.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 09:56 - ID#255151)
blooper--Currency Flows

Yeah, currencies are the key. Right now, net currency flow is strongly into US dollars. I can't imagine anything on the horizon that would cause a flow from US dollars back into Asian paper. I think that if wealth starts leaving the US$, it will flow into Gold and other tangibles.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:00 - ID#206358)
Sunday July 19, 4:47 am Eastern Time

Main points of Japan PM candidates

TOKYO, July 19 ( Reuters ) - The following are the main policy issues put forward by Japanese
prime ministerial candidates Seiroku Kajiyama, Junichiro Koizumi and Keizo Obuchi.

Seiroku Kajiyama:

* Declare a state of economic emergency over the next three years.

* Carry out "major surgery" on the financial system.

* Divide bad loans at financial institutions into three categories -- loans over which there are
recovery worries, loans over which such concerns are great and loans considered impossible to

* Force financial institutions to set aside reserves according to the types of bad loans they

* Create one million jobs over the next three years.

* Expand loans available from governmental financial institutions to between 20 trillion and 30
trillion yen.

Junichiro Koizumi:

* Give priority to fiscal spending until the economic crisis is overcome, and then follow with
implementation of a long-term fiscal reform policy.

* Push for thorough disclosure and restructuring of the financial system to address the bad loan

* Cut income tax rates closer to international standards.

* Reform Japan's political administration, with reduction of the number of civil servants and
parliament members by half in 10 years time.

Keizo Obuchi:

* Dispose of bad loans as soon as possible, secure prospects for an economic recovery,
ensure stable growth of the economy.

* Create an ``Economic Strategy Council'' that would operate like the Council of Economic
Advisers in the United States.

* Cut taxes by 6 trillion yen. Corporate tax rate should be lowered to 40 percent from 46
percent. Top marginal rate for national and local income taxes combined should be cut to 50
percent from the present 65 percent.

* Ease tax rate on members of middle income class earning seven million to 10 million yen a

* Provide a tax break on housing loan interest payments.

* Push fiscal reform by restructuring government ministries and agencies and encourage
administrative reform.

All the candidates agree on the following:

* Suspend or reform the fiscal reform law, which mandates annual cuts in deficit bonds until
they are eliminated in fiscal 2005/06 and reductions in the budget deficit to three percent of
gross domestic product over the same period.

* Enforce thorough disclosure of bad loans and hold bank managers responsible for their

* Promote economic reform consisting of deregulation and establishment of new industries.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:02 - ID#207145)
None of the gold charts look good do they? You have as good a chance as any with gsr. Japan is a no win situation. At least if they do good, gold will blast off ( inflation ) . If they don't its Depression for everyone.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:12 - ID#434108)
Bull Market in Gold is here/now.
#1. Continuing accumulation in mining shares with price/volume
patterns revealing a build-up of buying-pressure.

#2. Rising bottoms/lows for weekly stochastics,
over the last two years.

#3. Commitment of Traders patterns recently offered one last
down-side shake-out, which has not materialized.....
the gold-bears are 'spent'.

Conclusion: We are at the dawn of the greatest bull market
in precious metals, in this century.

Other bull markets, in addition to the gold/silver
precious metals, include:
energy, C. Oil, etc.;
grains, such as Soymeal, Soybeans;
foods, such as Sugar
currencies, such as D-Mark, Sw.Franc, & even the J. Yen.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:14 - ID#207145)
Would it not seem reasonable that it will take a while before we know anything positive or negative about which way the political winds will blow, and thusly whether things improve or not?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:19 - ID#207145)
Don't you think we ought to get a confirmation. I know the charts show a triple bottom. I think you're right, but a mini-crash could take gold with it. A clear pattern would not cost much more.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 10:34 - ID#431200)
For Tech Stocks, Bigger Prices Raise a Larger Question
Sunday, July 19, 1998
For Tech Stocks, Bigger Prices Raise a Larger Question
By TOM PETRUNO the Los Angeles Time
bull market is all about big numbers. And in this, the greatest stock bull market of all time, the numbers have become very, very big.
General Electric Co., for example, recently became the first U.S. company to top $300 billion in market value ( that is, the company's stock price times the number of its shares outstanding ) .
That means that investors collectively now believe that GE, by itself, is worth as much as half the entire U.S. stock market was worth in late 1974.
Everything is relative, of course. GE has grown as the U.S. economy has grown, and its shares have soared alongside many others over the last 24 years.
So even at $315 billion, GE's market value is just 2.8% of the now $11.1-trillion value of the Wilshire 5,000 index, the broadest measure of U.S. stocks. That 2.8% figure may not be unreasonable for a giant, well-run conglomerate that Wall Street has long regarded as a microcosm of the global economy, making goods in 26 countries.
More likely to trouble veteran Wall Streeters are the big numbers attached to many technology stocks today, including some of the sector's best-known names--like Dell Computer. With Dell's stock at a record $117.56 a share on Nasdaq as of Friday, the market now values the personal computer maker at about $74 billion.
That number doesn't look so huge next to, say, GE's market capitalization. But it was only three years ago that the market thought Dell was worth a mere $3 billion.
Have things changed that much in three years? Certainly, Dell's sales and earnings growth have been spectacular. Its direct-to-customer sales strategy means it builds to order, thus carrying little inventory.
Which also means there isn't all that much to Dell, period, in terms of physical assets. The company's shareholder equity--the excess of real assets over liabilities--was just $1.4 billion as of April 30.
The $74-billion value that the market has ascribed to Dell, therefore, almost entirely reflects the idea of Dell and what investors trust is a blueprint for long-term success in the minds of Dell's managers, rather than actual physical assets to which shareholders could lay claim.
Well, it's a virtual world anymore, so what's wrong with that? investors may well ask. On Friday, at Dell's annual meeting in Austin, Texas, Chief Executive Michael Dell got a standing ovation from shareholders. Those who have been lucky enough to own the stock since 1994 have seen their investment mushroom 46-fold--which has helped ensure another big number, namely, the Nasdaq composite stock index's breaching of the 2,000 mark last week.
As for Dell, "Our shareholders have been and will continue to be rewarded in the future," a confident Michael Dell proclaimed.
Big numbers have a tendency to encourage executives to say things like that. Over the last two years it has been hard to find a more optimistic chief executive than Henry Silverman of Cendant Corp., as he spent billions of dollars--in stock value--buying up a boatload of rights to major franchise names such as Century 21 real estate, Super 8 Motels and Avis Rent-A-Car.
Cendant's stock more than doubled between March 1997 and last spring, reaching a record $41.69.
But Cendant--and Wall Street--have since discovered that discount-shopping club operator CUC International one of Silverman's major acquisitions, turned out to be riddled with accounting fraud. Now, everybody's suing everybody. And suddenly Cendant's stock is no longer a big number, but a much smaller one--$15.50 a share as of Friday on the New York Stock ExchangeStock valuations are, of course, moving targets. Share prices that on Monday seem logical may appear highly irrational by Thursday. That's the fun, excitement and ( at times ) severe pain of the market.
Right now, investors believe that globally recognized U.S. companies like GE, Dell, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, drug-industry leader Merck and a relative handful of others are rightly valued at levels that surely would have seemed preposterous just a few years ago.
Those five companies combined currently are valued at $1.06 trillion, or about 10% of the Wilshire 5,000 index.
To put it another way, you could buy up half or more of the 5,300-some companies that trade on Nasdaq with the worth now affixed to those five firms.
Is that irrational? Investors who truly take a long-term view of things may argue that there's nothing wrong with that equation. Given the critical mass that they have achieved in their industries--and barring some Cendant-style bomb--it's a good bet that GE, Coca-Cola and Merck will still be around in 10 years. Of course, their level of sales and profitability going forward will still be subject to the marketplace's vagaries, as usual.
By contrast, the majority of the thousands of smaller companies on Nasdaq don't have the same likelihood of survivability over a 10-year time frame. Most may indeed survive--but few investors would affix to smaller companies the same seal of certainty that they'd assign to a GE or a Merck.
If there's a fundamental underpinning to the big numbers that blue-chip stocks are sporting at this stage of the bull market, it's the matter of certainty. On top of that, there is obviously a "momentum" game in progress--a pile-on by short-term traders who care not a whit about fundamentals but are happy to ride blue chips for as long as the train stays on the tracks.
What about the tech giants? Any business that is fast-growing tends to be fast-changing as well. As James Flanigan points out elsewhere in these pages ) , the Internet's potential is vast, perhaps unmeasurable. Many tech companies are sure to be carried higher with the Net's growth.
Even so, picking long-term survivors in the tech field has been, and remains, one of the toughest challenges on Wall Street.
Today, there's a $74-billion bet that says Dell Computer is a survivor. Good luck, Mike.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:03 - ID#113316)
It has been a losing proposition to apply fundamental reasoning to making "investments" in recent years. Those who shorted at $50 or YAHOO! at $100 were absolutely correct in their analysis that both were grossly overvalued, but they were blown out of the water by a market that is being powered by "liquidity" rather than fundamentals.

Similarly, those of us who have felt that the precious metals were very undervalued have had disappointing results because the markets have been driven by factors other than the fundamentals. As I have mentioned in prior posts, the primary influence on the POG in the recent past has been the explosion in gold leasing ( not sales ) by Central Banks.

Since the markets have been driven by other than economic fundamentals, it is not surprising that such analysis has led to disappointing results. HOWEVER, THE MARKETS CAN ONLY IGNORE FINANCIAL REALITY FOR SO LONG, AND IN THE END THE REALITIES ALWAYS WIN OUT.

What are the realities today? The US financial markets are overvalued, the dollar is overvalued, precious metals are undervalued.... IMHO, we are at a confluence of events that will correct these false valuations. Thess corrections will occur simultaneously, and I am now of the belief that the change at the outset will be swift. In short, it will be easy to tell the change has occurred! I would look for a major drop in US ( and European ) stock prices ( with InterNet stocks leading the way down ) , a major drop in the US dollar, and a jump in the POG.

When will this happen? I agree with goldfevr - we are at the doorstep now.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:04 - ID#434108)
Anything can happen, in the "mini-" time-frame.....
anybody's guess....- in the very short-term.

I simply see a convergence of 'market-shift' ......
more & more physical commodity markets are mapping out lows/bottoms, and new bull-market beginnings,
such as Gold, Cotton, Soymeal, and Sugar, and also C. Oil.

In addition, 'Foreign' Currencies are beginning to turn up,
as the U.S. Dollar-bear, surfaces.

I still feel that the DOW/DJIA could 'spike' up...
up to the 10,000 area, in the weeks/days just ahead.
This would almost be "too - ideal"....
.....'too - perfect' of a signal that
the 16-year bull-market in U.S. stocks, is over.

A classic hyperbolic curve 'model' must reach
it's point of "infinity", and exhaustion.

The U.S. stock-markets are mapping-out
just such a final chapter of 'infinity', at this time.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:06 - ID#339320)

Gereetings Mr. Tolerant,
on your island that is long, in your Port of Stone, next to the Gulf that is Latin...........we have a serious Sunday dilemna here and need expert advice......
To resolve this, we need to know....WHO makes the best Tequila?

Steve - Perth__A
(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:17 - ID#284170)
Hot world news via Australia
Markets fear US trade deficit and slowing growth

IMF adds Europeans to its critical list

US Government buying to lift grain price

More Aussies use home-equity loans

Japan: crisis has not hit home

The risks of recession in Australia

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:38 - ID#242325)
The Dow and Gold
Someone here talked about a FINAL BLOWIFF TO DOW 10,000, then a big bear. If that scenario unfolds, we could get a final shakout in gold to $275 or so followed by a huge bull. Gold has been the reverse image of the Dow these past few years; no reason expect a radical shift.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:44 - ID#207145)
Silver fox
We know we are at the doorstep, we are trying to figure out which step we're on.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:46 - ID#344286)
Kitco y2k partners
I'll take some of this!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 11:47 - ID#412286)
Bill BUCKLER/ Latest Privateer
Very bullish on US stocks and dollar due to continued flows from overseas. Not bullish on gold as there is no interest as the US has been the performer. He is right..though.. will the perception of a slowing US economy stem some of the flows?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 12:04 - ID#373284)
cmax, Namaste' and a gulp of tequila to ya from the Island that is Long...this question
you ask weighs heavy on first answer is the best tequila without question is the one that fills the glass closest to me...that having been said...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Day to day gulping I'll stick with Cuervo Gold...Now...if you want to move into the best of the best I would say Cuervo Reserva Limited Edition or what I consider the absolute best...Patron Anejo is without peer in my is smooth as a glass topped lake and will take you to parallel dimensions through portals in your mind you did not even know existed...uh is hand bottled and made from the finest Blue Agave pineapple...yes indeedy...a superb drink to be fact, a friend just gave me a bottle yesterday...

drum roll...shot glass is full...gulp to ya!!! delicious... simply delicious...Salud, Tequila!!!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 12:27 - ID#373284)
Did any of you folks see this Sunday edition at USA GOLD?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 12:28 - ID#374204)
Y2K preparations
While I don't think civilization will be thrown
into complete chaos, the looming Y2K problems
combined with the imminent stock market crash/
downturn give cause for at least a defensive posture.

- Have switched the 401K from aggressive equities position
to US Gov't Money Market & Bonds.
- Gotten rid of all debt, except mortgages. Can,t loose that
tax deduction and haven't got that much dough anyway.
- Bought some gold mining stocks.
- Am putting outlet plug for a small gas generator to the
house. Handy around here anyway, since its rural and have
power outs frequently. Big city living is now dangerous
enough, but may get much worse.
- Socked away some cash.
- Dusted off and added to the old coin collection. This is
fun anyway and this site provides some great tips.
- Got a freezer with lots of room. This also great since
one can bulk purchase at much better pricing and save
trips to the store.
- Our house is on a lake, WATER is always here and the
I'm getting the hang of bass fishing.

Trying to take sensible precautions without taking to the hills
and eating bushes and roots.

I saw a post here awhile back that suggested that one should
get a hard copy from the Social Security Administration of his
contributions to date and general account status. This sounds
reasonable, but I can't do it during weekday workdays and it's
closed weekends. Has anyone here tried this procedure? If so,
could he/she please post any info or phone numbers that could
get me started. Thanks in advance.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 12:42 - ID#341234)
To: Auric
This site surely is educational. The content lately has been excellent. I am not one for censorship, but I have noticed an improvement since the personal attacks have ended.

Goldteck, good article. Does anyone realize that a P/E of 30 means that it would take 30 years of earnings to pay back the stock investment? Okay, with a 5% earnings growth rate it would take 19 years. A 19 year pay back is equal to a 3.7% return. The money market is paying 5.5% with NO RISK!

sharefin, please keep giving us all those great URLs.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 12:48 - ID#113316)
This is the last rally in the US financial markets before the onset of a very prolonged and significant decline. The InterNet stocks have seen their highs and it is a long way down. Hi-Tech, NASDAQ, S&P500, and DOW will follow like dominoes.

Dollar has also seen its highs and has already started the decline. As the Yen-Dollar carry trade starts to unravel, the decline will pick up momentum. It will become painfully apparent that the US is the biggest debtor nation in the world with the highest trade deficit.

Commodities expressed in dollars will rally. Precious metals will lead the way, perhaps by gold, as the "gold-producer" carry trade also starts to unravel.

When will this happen? It has already started! One foot is in the door. The "big show" may not start until August ( and the DOW and NASDAQ may still see new record highs - I doubt if 10,000 is in the cards ) , but the party is over.

I also doubt if we are going to see a repeat of 1987, i.e., a gradual decline from August to September followed by the crash in October. I believe the crash will occur at or very near the outset of the decline.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 13:04 - ID#263254)
tolerant1...this one's for you buddy
LIPA ( the old Long Island Lighting Company ) ...could convert to gas, gas company needs electricity to generate gas, both need telephone lines. Oops.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 13:17 - ID#57232)
Brief note -- leaving work soon for Sunday chores
All: My market indicators are still positive for sp-500, DOW, etc. Gold equities look like they are trending up, and the JOC is bottoming. Cry0 -- to my eyes may still be heading down.
I think DOW 10k is still in the sights, especially if the Japanese are to free up all of those trillions of dollars by Jan 1999. And the Japanese euphoria of what they are planning may last for a while. But, the current US run to 10k is likely to fizzle for a while regardless.
So -- what is my synopsis? The markets may head down for a while if we have major coverage of pending Indonesian riots. Gold equities may head south again if we have another SEAsia -- induced market turmoil like 10/97. We are still waiting for the other shoe to fall in China wrt the Yuan/Reminbi devaluation, and Russia. On the other hand, perhaps SDRer is right that the Chinese already have a built-in devaluation in their exchange rate for the EURO. What worries me is the Chinese probably do not realize how long it will take before the EURO is really off the ground in its own right -- years. Russia is not likely to cause much turmoil in the markets unless there is an outright government takeover by a group unfriendly to the rest of Europe. On the posiitive side for Gold, we might have some significant revelations from Kenneth Starr. But -- do not underestimate the resiliance of WJC -- who makes the teflon president Ronald Reagan look outright sticky.
Sure is hard to ride the GoldBug Tsunami these days.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 13:47 - ID#187109)
*another Yank*
Will win the British Open...........four for four in the last four years.......and 'they' say the Yankee Doodles can't play the Euro courses............. ( yahoooo ) ......will it be Watts or O'Meara......hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm... ( ? ) .

Nick@C - AGULP to ya mate... ( had some fine Foster's Bitter, in your name, last night...can't get the VB here ) ...Yummy. I'll keep a close eye out for those big Pachyderms............good on ya. Now go buy some Platinum.........

The best tequila.......hmmmmmmm. Tol#1, that Patron sure is good. I will have to say once you get to that caliber there are a few that stand out. Herradura, Hornitos ( suaza ) , Cazadores ( tough to get in the states, but I ALWAYS keep a bottle in the cupboard ) .......... ( grin ) . It must come from the Blue MUST. A BIG DAMN GULP TO YA!! Buy Gold!

I recv'd my '98 Silver Eagles Friday. Damn what a pretty coin.......I am proud to own them and will give many................
AWAY.......... ( ! ) ... ( to small children ) .....
 (  ) pluribusunum

off to watch the money is on Mark......the man wearing the green jacket.........uh huh.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 13:49 - ID#207145)
Somebody help with info on Getchell
Gold. Need information if anyone has any.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 13:54 - ID#373284)
Bingo, Namaste' thanks for the input, I will check witht them and get back to ya...
EB, Namaste' I shall search for this...a giant gulp to both of ya!!!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:05 - ID#207145)
WJC 's teflof was given to him by the News Media, principally the television news media, which refuses to deal with any degree of harshness. They do not hound Clinton the way they did Nixon, Reagan, or Bush. I give as example how they artificially prolonged the last recession, as soon as WJC was elected everything was majically OK. and the credit was Clinton's.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:07 - ID#207145)
Sorry, teflof to read teflon.
I apologize.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:08 - ID#429121)
Dolphins in the bay
The bay must be getting cleaner - more bait fish and shrimp than a few years ago. And dolphins going for the mullet. Amazing how they herd 'em up. I love it when they swim along side the boat at 25 - 30 knots!

Before the Kitco Y2K practice run, I posted something on some Bright Star Gold venture. Anyone familiar with that outfit? Plz e-mail me at TIA.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:11 - ID#374204)
EB-Only Yanks on the links now
What happened to "Monty the Mouth"?

When visiting our subsidiaries in Mexico, ( superb folks ) , the sales
staff there breaks out Herradura. But where the large heavy hitters
meet, the Patron Anejo appears by magic. I've never even seen a
bottle and couldn't tell you where to get it. Perhaps someone with
more tolerance knows.

How can the Bolsa hold up after 65.5 billion Faboproa problem was
announced? I expect yet another US sponsored bailout package as
Wall Street couldn't withstand a Mexico collapse and the IMF has
other problems. - Regards

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:16 - ID#207145)
Mexico, Latin America
Next dominos to fall. Do not invest there. Mexico-herewegoagain.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:23 - ID#207145)
Jimmy Rogers said it best "let um sink or swim". Loans by the IMF are similar to those to Russia. Throwing good money after bad. We also would have to take our medicine. Soon we ( world ) will all be in the same boat.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:25 - ID#373284)
Patron Anejo, sole importer...
St. Maarten Spirits, LTD...Culver City, CA...

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:27 - ID#207145)
Positive thing about our crisis
Is that when we enter recession, Japan will be coming out. World will not be consumed. Japan is conter-cyclical, as is GOLD. Hallaluja. Ah men.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:30 - ID#174103)
Rising Indexes Doesn't Mean a Rising Market
It probably doesn't need repetition here, given the knowledgeable folks who hang around this site, but the phenomenon of rising indexes in the past few months is masking a major drop in the A/D lines in both the NYSE and NASDAQ. Non-index stocks are already in a bear market, and investors who survey their investment returns noted in the second quarter that the average growth fund declined by 7% this year, while index funds by an average of about 7%. Which leads to money shifting from Growth and
Agressive funds to index funds, and a false sense of security for those owning index funds that the rise will continue. P/E ratios be damned.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:34 - ID#341234)
GM Strike
Does anyone else think that the GM strike could be the straw that breaks the economy's back? Clinton CANNOT allow this strike to continue. It is already affecting the economic numbers. Another month and it could trigger a recession and a stock market crash. I cannot believe the strike has been allowed to continue as long as it has.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:36 - ID#207145)
I've been calling the 23 July
As the date the market fails. Give or take 2 days. Have been averaging out of European fund into utilities fund. Plan to be out of Europe by Tuesday. This sucker rally is part of a downturn in all stocks. I am positive on gold, but will wait until late October ( Oct. lows ) .

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:37 - ID#207145)
Clinton is sweating bullets.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:41 - ID#341234)
To: blooper
I am sure Clinton is worried. Keep all those interesting posts coming. There are plenty of lurkers out there reading every one.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:41 - ID#207145)
Greenspan speaks on Tuesday
I believe it is Tuesday. He could cause a great deal of trouble.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:43 - ID#207145)
Small cap rally this fall?
A little inflation would light their fire.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:47 - ID#207145)
The amazin' thing about the GM strike will be how quickly the economy improves when it is over ( inflation ) . Gold will then be loose on the world ( in US ) .

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:49 - ID#207145)
Investments this fall
With a touch of inflation: Small caps, realestate, oil and GOLD. I say GOLD. By gosh!!!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:54 - ID#207145)
I have never invested in small caps
Save PTEN, a driller. I have no horn to blow. I think we should try to preserve our money right now. October will offer us a sale, and a buying opportunity. I'm a little worried about utilities. Maybe I should be in cash reserves.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 14:57 - ID#207145)
Correction will be bad for gold
Oil, etc IF I am right. They are out of favor in a MINI CRASH. I don't see positive time to invest until late Oct. or November 1.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:01 - ID#287186)
Snowbird - Sorry, I thought you were joking with the 404
Due to the Silver Bear in my post on Sat Jul 18 1998 18:05
I can access the body of the post just as well as any other.
Is it that you get a 404 accessing the web-elements site?
I tested the url right after I posted and it worked okay.
But with a test now, twice I got java errors.
But then it worked. I HATE inconsistent computer BUGS!
Try this one:>
Once you are in you can click on any nearby element
to get the data on those elements too.
If that fails then try this for the beginning page.
I'm using the frames version with Navigator 4.0.5.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:02 - ID#374204)
blooper - Doing business in Mexico is indeed a pain in the neck,but
it's good when trying to make a buck might lead to something profoundly
better. The world is dividing into geographic economic sectors, and while USA/Canada is a force in and of itself, cultural differences
have sofar prevented the inclusion of Latin America. Mexico is the
key to the rest of the Western hemisphere. The creation of even a
loose economic union here would be extremely difficult for Asia or
Euro to compete with. And extremely beneficial to the average citizen
of Latin America.

And maybe it's an imposibility, and we'll go broke trying. But here
we go cautiously - into the breach.

( AND - there's GOLD in them there hills. )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:03 - ID#402183)
To Blooper re Getchell
It is just a matter of time before Getchell gets bought out, even if the purchaser has to overpay. Getchell holds a large ( approx. 50 sq mile? ) land position around their mines. This land position is in turn surrounded by Newmont and the Barrick/Homestake joint venture. I do not look for Newmont to be acquiring any new large land positions for a while. So, I see either the Barrick/Homestake JV or an equally large gold company anxious for more N. American property ( Anglo???? ) to step in and acquire Getchell. Of course, I haven't Windexed my crystal ball for a while....

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:05 - ID#207145)
I agree to an extent, But where do you draw the line at bailing out Goldman Sachs. Mexico has amnesia when it comes to currency.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:08 - ID#207145)
Thanks. I knew a tad about a buyout rumor. I really want to go on fundamentals. I know the beta is high. Seems to have done very well in the past. What do you think. ( as an investment ) ?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:08 - ID#374204)
tolerant1 - St. Maarten Spirits, LTD...Culver City, Calif... ehhhh
Either you have commited that to memory, or you were reading off
the label.
Kudos to ya, as I suspect the latter.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:10 - ID#287186)
Yuk - the urls got screwed up!
Let's try this again!
There must be some trick I get sometimes and miss at other times.
For the WebElements page
the above url should end with "web-elements"

For the Gold Abundances & other Geology info:
the above url should end with "html"

On the above I notice the "Geology" and "Biology" links are reversed.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:11 - ID#402183)
Getchell is not a big enough producer for my timid ways. I have some $$ with big, boring Newmont.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:12 - ID#207145)
Mexico, like Russia is splittin the loot. Corrupt governments, who happen to be 3rd world also, are in deep doo doo if the are irresponsible to boot.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:16 - ID#374204)
blooper - As you know, the US border is very porous
If we don't do this somehow, all of South America will migrate here
eventually. If I were living in Oaxaca,Mex. and had absolutely no
shot at a decent existence for myself & family, wouldn't I be on
the next train north?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:17 - ID#373284)
Tantalus_A, Namaste' and a gulp of Patron to ya...and you are the way
each of their bottles is a one of a kind hand-blown original. If you find some bottles on a shelf somewhere and they look to be filled with different amounts it is due to each bottle having a slighly different shape.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:17 - ID#207145)
Pull ggo and nem up and compare them going back 3 years. You'd be ahead with ggo, under water with abx, I don't know about nem.... I do
know that at the early stage of a rally, the NEMs will out perform the GGOs. So you may be on to something. Thanks for the info.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:20 - ID#207145)
Well, now that's kinda like annexing them without having to actually do it.Those that come would be ambitious too. Maybe we could make that spirit you like in Texas.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:24 - ID#207145)
I thought they all were here already. Ain't no body holding em back.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:28 - ID#287186)
Auric & Sharefin - re hoarding of Gold, food, etc.
Sharefin - at least you are clear of the fray developing here.
If the Internet stays up you may be an anchor for us.

Auric & All - Am I being paranoid in suspecting the motives
of those who inquire about my/our Y2K provisioning plans.
At some point could we expect those who have suddenly
"gotten the Y2K faith" to be probing us for later stings
from government authorities or
a perhaps as scouting for hoards to raid if necessary.
Pretty soon I may be looking behind the
eyes of everyone for hidden, self-serving motives.
Time for a walk to clear my head.
and look for brick structures to take refuge in
( I guess that constitutes "scouting" on my part. )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:28 - ID#207145)
Rubin and Clinton
Will definately bail out Mexico for the 3rd time ( that I know of ) . Of that there is no doubt. So you will get your way.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:31 - ID#286284)
@SWP1 re your 22:04

FOA, CB's don't "really want to sell." There has been no rash of CB sales - this is a myth. CB sales in '96, '97 were "average years" - ( ~400 tons/year ) . Don't believe the newspapers. CB's actually like gold - they just don't like others to like it.

SOA, CB's _like_ the POG low - it tells everybody they're doing a good job. They don't care what their mark-to-market is each month, they can't be fired; a low POG means inflation is dead, the monetary system is strong and all is well.

So how do you get a low POG whilst hanging on to your gold? As jims posted last night ( Sat-19:20 ) , they have someone else do their "dirty work" for them - they lease it to speculators who sell it spot. In this way, CB's can have their gold and sell it. Neat, eh?


Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:34 - ID#374204)
The man of tolerance
I shall expand my search pattern when in Sinoloa next Wednesday.
The bottles alone might be collectables, along with the enjoyment
of emptying them.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:38 - ID#207145)
US dollar
That has held gold back. When the dollar falls gold will rise. I like to keep it simple ( for my simple mind ) . It has worked for me in the past.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:46 - ID#374204)
blooper - I gotta go now, but
we could make it in Georgia as well.

I saw Ted Turner again on TV. As us Californicators have ridded ourselves
of Hanoi Jane, how can Georgians rid themselves of this couple? Am now
trying to send Henry Waxman,Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer your way.
Also Jerry Brown Jr. and Willie Brown.

As to your prior digs regarding the founding of your state, I make no
distinction between the slavery of Africans and the indentured slavery
of that era.

I will return when your blood pressure lowers. - Regards

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:47 - ID#339320)

Thanks for the input. Tequila is not very big in Venezuela, whiskey is ( highest per capita consumption in the world ) . Went to the largesty local liquor Patron, but found the Cuervo L.E.
Everybody here says thanks, from the bottom of their margaritas.
Keep that pretty blue shell flag fly'in...the one that the USG ( Federal, of course ) despises. Who knows, maybe some day it will exist in statute, and not just in the hearts of the local residents'.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:51 - ID#412286)
Sorry but Jerry Brown is AOK!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:53 - ID#412286)
Lets get to the point
Ted Turner, Camdusus and Rubin for troika co presidency for life.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 15:56 - ID#207145)
We'll turn that over to the Klan. The booze ( Preon ) . Is that Juan or Eva?
We would gladly make that here in my home town. You left out Gore. The scariest one of them all. Oh yes and Jerry Brown. Gooday.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 16:00 - ID#207145)
You may be the most open minded person in history if you make no difference between indentured servitude due to poverty and slavery.
How open minded.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 16:03 - ID#207145)
Thats Peron
Sorry bout the spelling. Peron, Eva was a sap. Hope the booze is better quality.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 16:03 - ID#252150)
This mkt letter from Barron's points out just how absurd valuations have become.
It also increases my confidence in ABX.

Pomboy Capital
2 Pickwick Plaza, Greenwich, Conn. 06830
JUNE 30 ~ We are certainly out of step with mainstream thinking, which in
the past has been a virtue, but now contrarian investors get trampled by the
momentum crowd. Consider the following: For $6 billion, you can buy
Barrick Gold, which gives you 60 million ounces of gold, of which 10 million
have been sold forward at over $400 per ounce. Or you can buy an Internet
stock for the same $6 billion with no net worth, no earnings and minimal sales.
The advantage of the latter is that its stock is going up as the momentum game
defies the laws of gravity, at least temporarily. If you don't like gold you can
also hold U.S. dollars, which under the auspices of the Fed have lost 95% of
their value since the Fed was formed in 1914. We are in the right place,
waiting for reality to set in.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 16:12 - ID#220325)
Squirrel: Thanks for the url"s
I could not access them from your post directly but I was able to cut and paste them. Good luck with yours

(Sun Jul 19 1998 16:20 - ID#113316)
SAM_A: CB sales of gold has been more or less routine in recent years at around 400 tons/yr. However, gold leasing has exploded to more than twice that amount. Difference between a sale and loan - in the loan, the CB expects to get the gold back. If CBs ever call in the loans or even just stop making new loans, under the current supply/demand picture the gold market would be short as much as 1,000 tons/yr plus whatever amount the CBs have decided to recall. Where is this going to come from? The CBs are the only source for this quantity of gold at these prices.

Listened to one CB banker state that they would NEVER sell gold, but they had every intention of contining their leasing plan. The CB banker does not seem to realize the precarious condition of his gold leases - they will never be repaid!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 17:28 - ID#431366)
Sunday afternoon watchin' people walk & drive by on "main street"
Maybe it just my pessimistic outlook...
But I view these crowds as oblivious to the comming tempest.
Buying and hoarding Gold, Silver, food, guns and ammo
are the furthest thing from these sheople's minds.
Their liberties are being undermined brick by brick.
Klinton is preparing to remain President well beyond 2000
or move up to Secretary General and become World Dictator.
Y2K and other crises are playing into his hands
and he is doing what he can to hasten the process.

I stand corrected, though Gold is useless now for trade
Gold may very well be useful later
for buying the means of defending/regaining our liberties.
This main street I look upon may too soon be washed with
the blood of patriots and those who sell out our liberties.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 17:33 - ID#287129)
Fred (To: Auric)
Good post. I also agree; this newsgroup has received some outstanding postings this month. My appreciation goes to all who make this NG worth reading!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 17:36 - ID#329186)
James ID# 252150 Jul 9 16:03
yes but the price would go up if you bid and don't forget the liabilities ? how far forward are they sold and have they spent the money what would happen if during an attempeted take over only a small % of big money moved in to physical gold & POG shot up this is what worries me and why physical feels better. Just what would the US Gov do if a crisis hit comex gold ( it would make it more interesting with a bid for Barrick ) from all the posts they must have a contingency plan No.
go physical


(Sun Jul 19 1998 17:37 - ID#431366)
I may miss the boat - but I shall wait a bit longer
for both Silver and Gold to drop further.
Why buy Silver now on my limited budget when/if
I may buy twice as much at half the price later?
Same for Gold.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 18:21 - ID#374204)
What's a feller with some money to do?
Be it an institiutional or small investor, where can you make a buck
when you invest? With worldwide downside rearing its ugly head, Wall
Street forms a bubble as one of the few remaining safe havens. When the
bubble bursts soon, GOLD/PM's are a great buy and simply must be in
the equation soon.
On the doorsteps, but on which step? Mr. AU's got a foot inside the front door. At long last,an end is in site for those here whom have
"endeavored to persevere". Heady times are directly ahead! Bring on
tomoro! Bring it on!

Best of Luck - to us all.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 18:24 - ID#285121)
Gold after 1929 !
In the five years following the crash of 1929 Homestake mining gained 500% with the price of gold fixed with no currency crisis involved. Can you imagine what the mining stocks could do with gold in a free market. However in the comming panic I believe paper will be paper and mining stocks may even be further crushed, but only for a short time maybe only a few days. This will be the time to sell BEARX and PUT options and buy Mining stocks.
And I agree with Grizz, The American people have their heads burried deep in the sand on complacency beach, one day very soon to look up and see the tremondous tidel wave comming. We are soon to witness the most devistating economic colapse in history including 1929. All we are waiting for is a shock that would otherwise cause a correction. But with
mutual fund cash reserves less than 4% a massive sell-off is inevitable as the margin can not be covered. Watch for two major falls three days apart no later than the end of October. My opinion is a DJIA near 1000
by the end of 2002.
Klinton's fall may cause the crash or it could be something out of left field yet. If Klinton's fall is the cause I have little doubt that the ignorant public will blame the Republicans.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 18:52 - ID#317193)
Changing times...
Yes, this site has changed in the last few weeks. No longer do we endure the likes of F*, LGB/LIBERTY, Poorboys, cherokee etc. This is a damn shame. Cleaned up our act...hell no! Just a bunch of jellyfish. The opinions here are, well...******.

News and information...hardly. Anybody got the URL for the site where we can come together again? 404d...probably, but what loss is that.

See you all @$285 or $320...soon

Cherokee...the grains are burning...Uncle saved me on my one wheat contract...well see!


(Sun Jul 19 1998 18:58 - ID#43349)
Flying on empty
So-called ``short-sellers'' -- investors who borrowed shares of companies such as Yahoo! Inc. and America Online Inc., speculating the stocks would fall, letting them repay the loan with far cheaper shares -- got caught in a ``short squeeze'' during the past few months, as the shares defied expectations by doubling and tripling in value.

The surge forced the short-sellers to buy shares at higher and higher prices, driving up the shares even more. ``Half of what's ( fueled the rally ) is that guys who were shorting the stocks were forced to cover,'' said Andrew Abrams, a money manager at CWH Associates Inc. in New York, which manages $90 million.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:00 - ID#341234)
To: Skip
We think this site is good now. Just wait until the stock market crashes and gold starts its ascent. This place it going to rock!

Steve in TO__A
(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:10 - ID#209265)
Jin - re: your 4:47
Seiroku Kajiyama's platform sounds very much like FD Roosevelt's platform in the the 1930's, right down to declaring an "emergency situation."

The similarities between the US in the 1930's and Japan in the 1990's is uncanny- and right on time for the 60-year Kondratieff cycle!

Hope you're doing OK. Remember to post if it looks like you might be in danger or difficulty.

- Steve

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:14 - ID#227238)
Shortin' the high flyers??
Gollum: I had a similar experience in the summer of '95. A vain attempt to successfully short Ascend Communications. It was not a pleasant experience. ......... Someone once said: "The problem with learning from experience, is that you always get the test before the lesson."

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:19 - ID#255151)
squirrel @ 15:28

My 2 lorins worth--I really think federal, state, and county governments are being caught totally unaware by this Y2K thing. Despite warnings from a few like Senator Bennett, the government is mostly asleep at the switch. I think that also applies to 99% of the population. Having said that, it is still a good policy to keep a secret or two from Big Brother.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:25 - ID#190411)
@james 16:03
Who bought this 400 dollar gold that American Barrick sold?
I'll be damned if I know.
They don't mention the buyer in their annual report.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:39 - ID#190411)
Cherokee might be getting his rear end kicked on the grains. He wasn't 404'ed.
Poorboys wasn't either, or was he?
Loral man should not have been. He actually stood up for Farfel, before he had the JDL threat.
I too miss them all.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:41 - ID#226327)
WJC tells the truth, for once
FWIW, this is from today's London Sunday Times

Last Saturday night at San Lorenzo, I picked up a scoop that I particularly like. I was sitting on the table next to Sylvester Stallone - who, incidentally was wearing very high heels and dining with an American chum of his called Jerry Harrington - when I heard the
Italian stallion with Angie Eberhard, telling a story about the Draft Dodger. Recently, the dodger flew into Florida for a Democratic party fundraiser at Sylvester Stallone's Miami Beach pad. During the evening, the dodger and the movie star had a little tte--tte.
"You're lucky," said the president to his host. "You will always be known for those wonderful Rocky movies you made. I, on the other hand, will always be known for having effed a lot of ugly women."
For once, I agree with Clinton.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 19:43 - ID#284255)
Time to Declare War on Y2K
Are We Ready for the Greatest Wealth Transfer Event of the Twentieth Century?
Email chatter:
UN Troops in Arizona
Here are a couple of items to mull over. Got a friend in Arizona, land borders Ft. Wachuka ( thats not how it is spelled, just how it is said ) , any way he has a friend who is an Army ( high rank deleted ) stationed there working in Admin. The ( high rank deleted ) said that U.N. troop strength
had gone from about 4000 to over 12000 recently. They are putting them in the Intel
Section to hide the numbers.
He also had a customer stop by yesterday with an interesting tale. Seems that he and his wife ( both in their 60's ) enjoy rock collecting. They were on such a trip out in the Nevada desert when they were accosted by U.S. Troops. They were told, "Better move along unless you
want to join the rest of the folks in the compound." There is no known or listed military base anywhere near where they were.
He says unusual level of troop exercises recently. They are increasing in tempo. Sees more UN types and uniforms than ever.


Lots of Y2k urls and info great page.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:02 - ID#43460)
re Beetle Bailey
Well, today's comic strip was revealing. Now cartoonists are investment gurus? But they did recomment gold. Must have worked. Gold is up tonight.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:03 - ID#295111)
Copper Production
FYI, China says it will cut back significanlty its copper production cause the price of cooper is too low. China produces 1/4 of the worlds copper. I know this is a gold forum, but this may be the start of an upward trend in commodities prices ( especially metals ) and thus an upward trend in inflation ( little as it may be ) . I guess we'll have to wait and see.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:10 - ID#342376)
"I think, in the future, for one to make their currency lower against the dollar will be as:" trying to hold the hand one meter below a falling stone?"

Bully Beef
(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:16 - ID#259282)
American Cash Is King.
You people that don't live next to the U.S. just don't understand what it is like. "That will be 50 dollars please" ...Oh how much is that in real money? You mean U.S. sir. "Yes" It is awesome . I told a guy that an engineer gets 80000 for wages here and he says how much is that in U.S. and he says that's not much. If i HAD u.s. CASH i WOULD BUY OUTSIDE THE u.S. More bang for buck. Gidday. Dammed caps lock.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:24 - ID#253246)
@Erle ****who is holding the other end of $400 gold

Check out John Disney post July 13 04:40 am , I can buy on to
nuggets theory

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:31 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
This is just to let you know that I posted the July Issue earlier today:- ( Sorry, but for some reason my attempts to include an active URL are being rejected ) Max

Lan Man
(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:40 - ID#320108)
@SSA Forms
Tantalus__A: The form is "Request for Earnings and Benefit Estimate Statement"
form SSA-7004-SM ( 2-93 ) . Can't remember how I got mine but the address to mail
the completed form is:
Social Security Administration
Salinas Data Operations Center
P.O. Box 80093, Salinas, CA 92912-0093

Hope this helps : )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:46 - ID#392358)
In n' out, Squirrel, Prometheus

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:51 - ID#210114)
ANOTHER great prediction.
Gold to go to $US 360 soon. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.........

I heard that prediction for March. Didn't happen did it??

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:54 - ID#392358)
In n' out, Squirrel, Prometheus
Hello Squirrel prometheus and all;
BAck for just 2 days from another trip 2 more to go. Just cheked back on posts.
Thanks Promey for the chukle about vacationing in humid weather. It was also veery nice meeting you and yours!
Squirrel, Yule Brenner of course!
Away to drag Highschoolers behind a speedboat for a week, maybe teach em' some truth....give em' some tlc.

Nicodemus, Very glad to meet some wonderful people. Will stay in touch.........

(Sun Jul 19 1998 20:58 - ID#255151)
tolerant1--Computer ID# News Sources

Just heard it is a lead story in New York
Times Monday edition.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:00 - ID#287129)
A scary Y2K read...
Check out the following website:

Perhaps some of us who have not been taking Y2K seriously ( including myself ) might pay attention to the SOURCE of this thought-provoking document. Maybe Gary North isn't so far off afterall.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:00 - ID#218389)
How low can they go?
If you are nervous over an impending crash in PM stocks,
worry nor more. It has already happened! Ironic ain't it?

Stock April 6 July 19 Decline
SUF 13.60 5.60 58%
GRE 10.30 4.70 54%
RNG 5.45 3.15 42%
ORV 1.85 1.25 32%
GEO 2.50 1.85 26%
PDG 20.80 16.70 20%
ABX 32.75 27.35 16%

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:11 - ID#411440)
@ ALL: GOLD LEASE RATES remain unchanged at a low 1.01% for 1 month
and 1.81% for 1 year gold. The bad news is that these rates make
the gold carry, short-selling extremely lucrative. The good news is
that at $294 there are few takers. My interpretation here is that
293 is too close to the perceived support level for gold, hence
even with a 4% forward rate, there is insufficient profit margin for
shorting. More good news: periods of low lease rates ( at or below
1% for one month gold ) have predated every spike in the POG.
The problem is there is no correlation between the length of the
low lease rate trend, or the depth of the trend and the timing
of the upward break. But lease rates must bottom out below 1%, and
then begin to rise again before gold spikes. In 1994, and 1992,
the bottoming of lease rates and then the rise predated the spike by
4 to 5 months. In 1990, the bottom and surge in lease rates happened
only one month prior to the spike in POG.

Many of us have stated that the gold market has a different 'feel'
to it right now. Part of this feel is lease rates, part is the decline
in the US$, part is some significant improvement in the XAU despite
minor moves in the POG, and part is some optimism for Asia.

The CBs use the cheap lease rates to keep a lid on the POG. There
eventually comes a time when speculators decide the gold carry
trade is too dangerous, and back off, no matter how cheap and
attractive the CBs make the lease rates. IMHO.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:15 - ID#255151)
Hot Stories From Drudge

Computer ID story from NY Times, Wash. Post story on Vince Foster. Plus this teaser headline-- Reno Wants to Probe Starr! ( I'll just bet she does! )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:33 - ID#386245)
Getting my Y2K practice in early.

G'day all
Last night I was organizing my 2000+ URLs in Netscape , did something wrong and presto--GONE--the lot. Computer will have nothing to do with Netscape. When I try to reload Netscape I get error messages. I am only still on Kitco because I have Internet Explorer as a backup--but no URLs. Like flying blind with no instruments.Any suggestions would be welcome.

Going out to buy homing pigeons today. Also more yeller stuff.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:41 - ID#335190)
USofA Worker's @ Against Union/Corporate/Government Leader's(Progressive Internationalist's????
July 19, 1998

GM hourly workers authorize Saturn strike

FLINT, Mich., July 19 ( Reuters ) - The United Auto Workers at General Motors Corp.'s Saturn plant turned up the heat on the automaker on Sunday by authorizing a strike at the Spring Hill, Tenn., plant.

The voting results at the small-car plant, which employs about 7,300 hourly workers, is the beginning of a big week, including a key arbitration hearing, in the ongoing struggle between the world's largest automaker and the union representing most of its work force.

"The pressure is building on both sides," Burnham Securities analyst David Healy said.

More than 95 percent of the more than 5,000 members voting authorized a strike, said Joe Rypkowski, president of the Saturn local.

"This strike vote is about General Motors failing to live up to its commitments," he said on Sunday at a news conference in Tennessee shortly after 5 p.m. EDT ( 2100 GMT ) .

Rypkowski said GM has failed to invest in Saturn's Tennessee operations as promised and has begun turning to foreign suppliers for parts for the next-generation Saturn car and other future vehicles.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 21:47 - ID#286284)
@SilverFox (Re your 16:20)

I understand the difference between loans & sales quite well ( my very point in this and many recent posts. ) The msg I was trying to send SWP1 was that gold leasing fits into CBs' grand plans quite nicely. In this way, they get to depress the gold price ( inflation is dead -- hurray! ) yet hold on to their gold at the same time, just in case.

I think your point to me ( and correct me if I am wrong ) was that CBs were misguided if they thought they could, as I phrased it, "have their gold and sell it at the same time"; that those on the other side of the leasing deals ( the shorts ) might default and the CBs might never see their gold again. Yes?

If so, I agree to some extent - I think this whole business is folly in the extreme. The ponytailed folk who run the numbers at these institutions don't realize that, unlike the currencies, the gold market is a market of finite liquidity. They apply the same rules to gold as they do to the mark or the yen. It's a numbers game and if the numbers look good, they lend it to be sold. A hundred million dollars worth of gold is sold in the exact same manner a hundred million dollars worth of yen is sold. But compare: 100 mil of gold represents a year of production at large gold mine employing hundreds of people; 100 mil of Yen represents a minor revision in the latest Japanese rescue plan. You be the judge.

This having been said, I don't know if they will "never be repaid", as you put it. Let's do the math. Estimates of the lease - related physical short position is about 8000 tons. This represents about 1/4 of all CB holdings and 1/16 of all bar-form private holdings. So the gold is certainly out there to be bought and returned. The question is - at what price? Well, if they all try and cover at once, a dear price indeed. For every $100 increase in the price of gold, the shorts incur a liability of $24 billion.

This sounds like a lot but whether or not defualts would arise would depend on how the 24 bil/100 oz liabilties are distributed. For example, many of the shorts have bought out-of-the-money calls, thereby limiting their liability. Who sold 'em these calls? Someone else, someone else who perhaps has also off-loaded some risk to a third-party. On it could go. If enough parties ended-up on the hook, then defaults may well be averted.

We won't know 'till it happens.


Sam_A ( not sam! )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:01 - ID#335190)


Izvestia, July 17, 1998, p. 2

Izvestia, July 17, 1998, p. 3

Who or what will Washington protect the Baltic States from? Russia,undoubtedly.
Rossiiskaya Gazeta, July 17, 1998, p. 6

Izvestia, July 17, 1998, p. 1

Russian Television, "Vesti" program, July 16, 1998, 20:00

Russky Telegraf, July 16, 1998, p. 3

Vremya MN, July 16, 1998, p. 3

July 19, 1998

Yeltsin fills gaps left by Duma in anti-crisis plan

MOSCOW, July 19 ( Reuters ) - President Boris Yeltsin has stepped in to make up for part of parliament's failure to accept key parts of a government anti-crisis plan sought by the IMF, the deputy head of his administration said on Sunday.

Alexander Livshits told a news briefing Yeltsin had vetoed two laws passed by parliament to lower taxes and introduced new land taxes by decree. The decisions filled more than half of the revenue gap left by parliament and more would follow, he said.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:04 - ID#29048)
Netscape bookmarks are stored in the file: "Bookmark.htm" which can be found using the Tools, Find, Files or Folders option in Windows Explorer.
This file can be corrupted or deleted and all bookmarks lost. ( I have lost mine twice ) . It can also be read by IE 4.0 if you can find a good copy. Hope you have a good tape backup.....mine has saved my arse more than once. Good luck.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:05 - ID#228128)
lost urls
Nick try the undelete command from DOS. Sometimes it can retrieve lost files.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:06 - ID#434108)
I've posted several times, here at kitco, on the strategic importance of Commitment of Traders ( -COT ) data/chart patterns, and particularly the 'Commercials'. And now Barron's reiterates/endorses/agrees with.....
my previous kitco posts on the COT, emphasizing ...
the strategic, lucrative timing tool
that can be found in
a patient study of the chart-patterns of Commercials' net-long/net-short positions;
and as reflected in the 'opposite' patterns of Large Speculators' net-long/net-short positions.

What the Barron's article does not tell you,
( -perhaps Genesis Partners hasn't figured it out yet )
( or perhaps they are not willing to give it away, like I am ) ,
it is often possible to "fine-tune"/improve...
the timing value of Commmercials/COT patterns.

The 'ideal/classic pattern' to look for,
when looking for a bull market trade,/investment opportunity, is --
simultaneously - over weeks, preferably months:
cyclically lower prices
corresponding with
cyclically lower net-long Commmercials patterns/positions.

Two excellent, recent examples, are:

The 'ideal/classic pattern' is not always presented/offered.
Thus, it is also important to look for "extremes" in net-long and/or net-short values, for Commercials, and for Large Speculators.

Barron's article offers current examples of this,
in J. Yen ( -bull market brewing ) ,
and in T. Bond ( -bear market brewing ) .

Another example of 'extreme-values-reached' in COT patterns,
was Soybean Oil's bearish, overbought patterns in April.

Bottom line is:
the broad-base of most COMMODITIES -- REAL items -- are mapping-out/confirming bottoming formations -- new bull markets.
I've offered several posts of this opinion,
here at Kitco, as recently as last night and this morning.

Gold has bottomed, and will work steadily higher. As I've recently posted, the recent new net-long values by Commercials, were not followed by any renewed selling-pressure; thus the gold-bears have exhausted themselves.

But, perhaps the buy of the century will be
going long, or calls, in the J. Yen.

Grain markets are bottoming, or have; and C. Oil/Energy,
Foods/Softs, etc.

If you've followed my meandering posts on Kitco,
you heard it from me, long before you heard it from 7/20/98 Barron's.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:09 - ID#335190)

Today, CPRF leader Zyuganov visited the miners who have been
picketing the White House for a week and assured them that he and the
CPRF support them. The meeting with the miners followed a traditional
pattern. First Gennadi Zyuganov delivered a speech, then he answered
some questions. Zyuganov discussed issues everyone could understand
- that now that the USSR no longer exists, he cannot send medications
to his relatives in Ukraine - he commented on the current situation in the
country and analyzed the crisis of power.

Gennadi Zyuganov: There is no one ruling the country. The President
works two or three hours a day, a couple of days a week. A president
sitting at his dacha is something new, isn't it? We are in the clutches of a
crisis, it's clear. We have to pool our efforts and get him to step down,
in line with the Constitution.

The CPRF leader reminded the protesters that his Duma faction has
already collected 217 signatures on its impeachment petition and said a
nationwide protest action is needed to convince other deputies to
support it.

The miners were fairly hard on the CPRF leader. Some unpleasant
questions were asked: Why did the Communist faction support
Kirienko's candidacy? Why didn't it pursue the impeachment procedure
to its logical conclusion the other time? Etc.

NTV ( Independent Television ) , "Segodnya" program, June 18, 1998, 14:00[ 3. 3]

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:09 - ID#434108)
Barron's article: "The Next Wave"......7/20/98 issue
'making the case for commodities'

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:12 - ID#290281)
All Pooped Out!!
Picture too!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:12 - ID#434108)
re-post of Sat. nite 'post'
Date: Sat Jul 18 1998 22:23
goldfevr ( GOLD BULL IS HERE.....NOW. ) ID#434108:
Mining shares's reluctance to increase volume on 'down-days',
while -even-tho-begrudgingly-.... adding volume on 'up-days';
over many weeks, and several months, now....
is/are one of the most valuable pieces of evidence...
of the unfolding bull-market in precious this very time.

Commitment of Traders pattterns/values...
offered us the possibility of a new bear-chapter for gold/metals;
but - by 'hindsight', we will see this as the final "head-fake"...
the bull-market in gold and precious metals markets, is here/now.

The world's liquid/hot capital is nervous, and almost frightened.
Asia has already nose-dived.
So. Africa & Russia have demonstrated that this is not
a regional problem.
My 9/97/ post of "the collapsing tent"...
continues to be confirmed
by all world and local events.

More & more commoditiy markets - PHYSICALS - ( -as in REALITIES ) , are confirming
bottoms, mapping out their early stages of new bull markets:
one by one,
the physical commodities, that are real, in a real world,
where humanity lives on the earth,
an earth of of air and land and fire and water.....
humanity is re-discovering it's basic essentials,
for survival, and life.

The basic shift away from paper-dollar denominated/defined assets,
to assets-more-real....
is upon us.

The U.S. dollar will decline/collapse,
as will its dollar-defined investment markets, and economies.
( Pride goeth before the fall. )

'Foreign' Currecnies led by the D-Mark,
will live in a new bull market of ....of....of...
of alternatives.......
to a dollar-nation that has sold out its soul
to the highest bidder
of ready comfort, convenience, and denial....

The buy of the century will be Yen-calls in the weeks just ahead.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:16 - ID#434108)
re-post of previous 'post'
Date: Sun Jul 19 1998 11:04
goldfevr ( MEGA-CRASH/mini-crash/Blooper@10:19 ) ID#434108:
Anything can happen, in the "mini-" time-frame.....
anybody's guess....- in the very short-term.

I simply see a convergence of 'market-shift' ......
more & more physical commodity markets are mapping out lows/bottoms, and new
bull-market beginnings,
such as Gold, Cotton, Soymeal, and Sugar, and also C. Oil.

In addition, 'Foreign' Currencies are beginning to turn up,
as the U.S. Dollar-bear, surfaces.

I still feel that the DOW/DJIA could 'spike' up...
up to the 10,000 area, in the weeks/days just ahead.
This would almost be "too - ideal"....
.....'too - perfect' of a signal that
the 16-year bull-market in U.S. stocks, is over.

A classic hyperbolic curve 'model' must reach
it's point of "infinity", and exhaustion.

The U.S. stock-markets are mapping-out
just such a final chapter of 'infinity', at this time.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:16 - ID#286284)
@goldfever re your 22:09 (COT's, etc.)

Point well taken. Now how do you explain the net commercial short position in Silver? ( I have some ideas but would like to hear your take. )


Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:24 - ID#207145)
A rapid reduction of the Dow wouldn't be good for gold. After the smoke cleared, say late October, however, would be an excellent time to buy in, as we would be close to Euro time, and CB sales would have virtually ceased. The dollar would be weak, and the market would be in bear mode.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:26 - ID#207145)
November-December bear interruption.
Nov. 1. - Jan 1, the market will recover, but gold will be under accumulation.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:28 - ID#29048)
Question to Silver traders...
Last December, I stumbled across this blurb from the Silicon Investors Silver disussion board: "Each futures market is made up of an unique mixture of traders. In silver, large hedgers are primarily producers who hedge against price declines by selling forward in the futures market. As a result, commercials have never been net long in silver. "

Is this a correct statement?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:28 - ID#310222)
x'ellent, Thank you very much ! Can you give mor insight in the Yen-calls? why and when?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:33 - ID#434108)
Silver's net-short Commercials//Sam__A@22:16
Sam, et al,
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are relative.
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:38 - ID#207145)
All the gold stocks I track are in down trends. I can't go on faith. I've got to see something for real. Being early has cost us a s*it pot of money. If i'm a little late I won't grieve. Right now could be a hard time for stocks as I believe intrest rates are going up 4th quarter. 10 year maturities yield less than the fed funds rate. That tells me the dollar will weaken. That is goooood for gold.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:45 - ID#207145)
I use the dollar
I keep it simple. Toss your indicators. Look at the dollar. When it establishes a downtrend, go long gold.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:48 - ID#207145)
Asia can and will pump dollar
from time to time. But I believe the dollar is real close to a long term down trend. The Yen in a long ( 5 year ) up trend.

Gold Dancer
(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:53 - ID#377196)
As you all know I am bulllish on gold etc. BUT, when I read Veneroso
and others mention the hugh 5000 to 8000 tons short in the market I
have to step back and question this.

I have long felt that something so obvious is too easy and have
mentioned this before. I am not saying that Veneroso is lying or
incorrect. I am only saying that he is seeing only half the picture
or only giving us half the picture.

The last post by ANOTHER is beginning to put the pieces together.
The gold short trade is only one half to one third of the transaction.
I wish I knew more or understood more about cross trades but it seems
to me that different parties have made opposite trades in agreement with
each other which will at a later time be joined together with the
result of a wash trade. The benefit being to both parties the keeping
down of the gold price for reasons known to them.

The ending of dollar domination has been know by the banking system
for a long time and with the intro of the EURO all sorts of trading
has been going on. The end result will be gold higher and the dollar
lower. But to pin ones hopes on the HUGE short position is a mistake.
Yes. There is probably 1000 tons of naked shorts out there but
in no way do I believe 8000 tonns of the stuff is really short. NO WAY.

Thanks, GD


(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:53 - ID#207145)
The Fed will be defending Clinton/dollar
When the Fed raises it will be to defend the dollar and markets, and Clinton. Trouble is 2 rate increases will kill markets. Normally 3, but in this case 2 will do nicely.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 22:58 - ID#434108)
Blooper @22:24's SCENARIO
If I had a nickel for every "SCENARIO"...
that I've sold my soul & wallet for,
I'd be richer than King Midas.
Bottom line is:
the markets are telling us what they are going to do next;
it can be found in the charts.
We don't need to know....."WHY".....
the markets are going to do, what they are about to do.

We only need to know... "WHAT"...
they are about to do.

Do not attempt to EXPLAIN markets with favorite SCENARIOS.
It is a sure road to ruin... ( -voice of experience speaking here ) .
The 'ego' is a snake....hiding in the grass.
Do not delude yourself with scenarios of what will happen
because of whatever....down the road.

Bottom-line is NOW.
The charts are pictures worth a thousand words,
and unlimited dollars.
The trick is learning to use these powerful tools, wisely.
It is a constant, on-going process.

As I've said here before:
Dow will likely spike to/toward 10,000..
( -see, there i go, offering a 'scenario'...! ) ..
I've offered numerous explanations for this before, here at Kitco;
basically: A HYPERBOLE ( -a hyperbolic curve ) , must complete/exhaust itself, at a point of "infinity"...
the DJIA/DOW, etc., is/are mapping that this period.
My intuitive hunch is that it will peak in August, on a final stampede & "stab" at 10,000 for the DJIA.

Meanwhile, much more promising, explosive opportunities are abounding, in the world of commodities:
For. Currencies/D. Mark/Sw. Franc/J.Yen
C. Oil/Energy

As I've emphasized in several earlier posts,
there is a major, super-cycle, mega-shift taking place
in investment markets.

Physical/REAL commodities are entering new bull markets.

Paper assets, stocks/bonds... are entering new,
long-term bear markets.

Repair man
(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:00 - ID#411239)
Hello, I have been following this gold discussion group for some time now and have enjoyed the many views represented here. One of my favorite posters was Mr. ANOTHER. His views ( along with many others here ) , have enlightened me as to the current world financial condition. I was disappointed when he left the forum due to some misunderstandings ( one of them was the "gold at $320 to $360 thing", which was cleared up by several notable posters ) . I made my only post at that time to try and throw a little water on that fire, but still the place was full of people with blinders on their eyes and cotton in their ears.
Anyway, Mr ANOTHER has his most recent post out today at his current posting site. I was wondering if anyone here would be so kind as to read his new post ( it is fairly long ) and make some comments on his views. I am very curious as to what you think of his thoughts as he has a lot to say on the near future of the US$. If anyone can shoot holes in his thoughts, I invite that as well, the truth about our future is most important, and lots of us would like to know it plainly. Mr ANOTHER has laid down some views, that if true, need some thought and much attention.

the Repairman

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:01 - ID#43460)
Nick@C re Netscape dissappeared URL's
Been there, done that. What I did to get them back was first look for them using file manager. They weren't there so I ran Undelete from DOS and undeleted anything sounding like lost files but it wasn't what I was looking for. So I ran Scandisk ( from DOS ) then reclaimed the lost data as files then went back and found which ones were my URLs. Which I then I looked at in DOS and changed to text files. ( Don't try this at home boys and girls. It worked for me, but I'm not giving advice on programming, merely pointing out its doable. And the three search steps must be done in order and suspect files looked at after each step before proceeding or more data can be lost. ) ( 8-^ ( )

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:01 - ID#207145)
It probably would take 6 quarter point rate increases
To do what needs to be done for the dollar. It will be a losing battle. There will be a bit of recession mid to late 99 into 2000. I hope everything works out alright.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:02 - ID#284255)
Health ID info

Email comments:
Since The Cashless system begins for real this Jan 1, 1999, soon after
coming to a town near you, these databases will be necessary for payment
transactions between patient and insurance, insurers and Medical services,
and have been in creation for many years. Naturally Banking is included at
all levels. AS Corporation Benefits are ruled under Internal revenue code
Title 26 and are a pretax deduction naturally IRS inclusion in the system
is required.

To save the enormous costs of Multiple systems using incompatible
components a routing through powerful computers in Virginia and Maryland
will create a central database all coded to SSN's and can feed the required
agencies the required information.

This system, is Y2K compatable , for all that is required is a daily backup
of SSN's to Licenses, and newborns, as permanent files
have been created for many years, all starting in 1979, when the bar-code
became database readable ( || 34567 || 34906 || )
6 6 6

Stored files on New Y2k Compliant systems, can feed the masses of
Systems through front computers to restore saved data, after a Y2K Event or
disaster. And of course the United States claims that the one system that
will be Y2k compliant in 2000 is FEMA.

The new Deadbeat Parents Laws, Immigration and New Hires Laws
All lead to the Central database of all US persons tied to the SSN.

Nuclear Plant Survives Tornado Hit

Gold Dancer
(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:04 - ID#377196)
James Stack
James Stack of INVESTECH has just said to buy the Japaneese market.
I think he is right. Long Japan, Yen and Gold and short the Dollar and
DOW. Good money to be made.

When I look at some of the big gold stocks like Barrick I don't
know if the bottom is in. NEM the same. NEM could see $20. But when I
look at DROOY and RANGY I see bottoms. Interesting. Time will tell.

Thanks, GD

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:06 - ID#43460)
second note re netscape eating files
BTW, if undelete is run on anything other than files which are really needed before scandisk is run it can eat up data so its a judgement call. I wish I had a program which would look at the raw data in suspect areas before its undeleted! If anybody knows of such a utilitiy let me know. Sorry Bart, but those URLs included your website!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:07 - ID#335190)
Arrogant Capital @ Kevin Phillips (financialization/financial elite/hard times/freeing USofA)
Political analyst Kevin Phillips speaks on 'frustration of politics'

The title of Phillips' lecture comes from his most recent book, "Arrogant Capital," published in 1994. In it he writes, "Since the 1960s, revolutionary elections have been stymied by the interlock between interest-group power and the political system. Presidents can only govern by accepting, placating and bargaining with the interest-group structure."

Phillips' 1969 book, "The Emerging Republican Majority," foresaw the return of the political right as a major player on the American political scene and established Phillips as an astute political forecaster and analyst. He now is turning his scrutiny on the 1996 presidential election.

In an article written for The New York Times in 1994, Phillips predicted that "by mid-1996, the portrait of the Democrats could be one of incompetence, the Republican image one of obstructionism, and the mounting public perception of Washington and the governmental system one of intolerable inadequacy."

Arrogant Capital: Washington,
Wall Street, and the Frustrations of
American Politics
by Kevin Phillips

"Classic Phillips: profoundly
-- Time

Washington -- mired in bureacracy, captured
by the money power of Wall Street, and
dominated by 90,000 lobbyists, 60,000
lawyers, and the largest concentration of
special interests the world has ever seen --
has become the albatross that our Founding
Fathers feared: a swollen capital city feeding
off the country it should be governing. Using
history as a chilling warning,

Kevin Phillips' Arrogant Capital

A book review by Rob Lanphier

Kevin Phillips' Arrogant Capital does a marvelous job in articulating the frustrations of those of us who have grown increasingly cynical of the ability of Washington, D.C. to effectively govern us. Phillips does an excellent job of pointing out what is wrong with not only politics, but the much broader power structure of America

Nonetheless, I have to applaud the thorough analysis this book provides. Especially enlightening for me was the chapter devoted to the financialization of America, where he makes clear how the U.S. has become stratified between the financial elite and the working stiffs. He explains perhaps all too clearly why it is dangerous and could lead to some very hard economic times ahead.

This book is a must-read for all interested in political reform. For the most part, he carefully sidesteps partisan politics and stays focused on a unifying goal: freeing the United States from the grips of anti-democratic forces on all sides.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:08 - ID#411201)
blooper...and all
I've also been watchin my gold-silver stocks turn microscopic ( endless pain ) ... if there is a bottom to them I haven't a clue when except to think now is as good as time as any...if you had to pick only three mr bloop that you feel would not only survive but escalate the most in a 'gold bull market' which would you choose ? C'mon everyone send your choices then we could tabulate the results and measure just how good the overall advice is on this site...I'll take Cde, Bmg, and for my kicker

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:08 - ID#207145)
I agree with everything you say, except, I don't think this rally will make August. GDP #s are out the 30th of July. They will be red. I am waiting and watching. Planning to be long gold 100%.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:10 - ID#434108)
Blooper@ 22:38 Stocks in down-trends
If all you are doing is just watching prices...
you are allowing yourself to settle for being
just part of the 'herd'.

Joe Granville can get way off base at times
but he taught us one very basic, rudimentary, valuable principle,
of investing, 20 years ago:


You'd best be advised to follow volume patterns in general,
and on-balance-volume patterns specifically,
in the mining shares of your interest.

Gold & silver stocks are ready to accelerate.
The bullish, accumulation pressure has been building
under them for 3 or 4 quarters.

But you can't know that
by the lazy-man's way
of just watching price.

Gold Dancer
(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:18 - ID#377196)
I have never made money on knowing the "why something happens." I
have lost like you on trying. However, it is helpful at times to try
and figure the big picture out because it can keep one from selling
out at the bottom. Like now in the golds.

I try and remind myself that markets can do only three things.
Go up, go down or go sideways. The reasons change from time to time
but price behavior can only do one of those three things.

With the gold market washed out what is the reasonable thing to
happen? I think it is to go up. Markets have not been reasonable you
say? Then maybe the upside will be unreasonable!!! Let us hope.

Thanks, GD

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:20 - ID#255226)
Goldfevr - I guess I look at the same charts you do. Silver may scream to the upside but it looks to me like it's going to drop like a rock first.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:22 - ID#434108)
If you are not already establishing long positions
in the J.Yen,
begin now.
D. Mark is leading the way;
J. Yen will follow.

But, the J.Yen is so deeply oversold,
it will likely accelerate to the upside,
in the days & weeks just ahead.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:22 - ID#431263)
Gott im Himmel, I wish I'd said that! RECHT AN, MEIN HERR! RECHT AN! Gold mining shares are definitely under accumulation and VOLUME DOES PRECEDE PRICE! Follow the volume and you will definitely participate in appreciation of price! Bottoms weren't made in a day! The handles on the saucers require weeks if not months to form before the blast-off!

Emerging Markets Funds are also under accumulation and forming important bases. If China doesn't devalue and the yen starts to appreciate versus the dollar, the bottom in emerging markets may be at hand as Asian money is repatriated back to the country of origin boosting Asian currencies at the expense of the US$!

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:27 - ID#207145)
I would not consider recommending stocks to anyone. NEM, Newmont Mining is a Quality Big stock that I think will just about triple. I caution you tho. Look up NEM on your computer. Check the 52 week low and high. That will tell you near about where it might go.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:31 - ID#434108)
stock pick//ROSK@23:08//Bang for the Buck=SSC
I like CDE & BMG, the other one you mentioned, I'm not familiar with.
But if you want the bang for the buck:


will do.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:31 - ID#233199)
How flat is this gold mkt compared to previous trading ranges?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:32 - ID#207145)
Thank you for your post; ID#284255. I am very interested in what will be going on. And what is going on.Thanks again.

Gold Dancer
(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:37 - ID#377196)
I think it was back in the '73 to'74 bear market and an analyst
who wrote a news letter became the best in the complete bear market
the whole way down. The market went to exactly the price he said it
would 2 years earlier: Dow 570.

When the market got there he turned even more bearish and didn't buy.
He could never get over being bearish. I was lucky and bought with
everything I had. But he never did buy and passed from sight a couple of
years later.

Just a thought,
Thanks, GD

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:37 - ID#29048)
What you need is a disk editor. Norton Utils has one. There are probably some good freeware ones out there. Disk Editor allows you to see each sector of the disk in both Hex and ascii. Data can be recovered, but it is tedious. Nothing is as good as a full tape backup...... away to dreamland.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:38 - ID#207145)
Two of those mines are silver mines. I think Newmont would be a solid start in this risky business.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:39 - ID#207145)
What are the symbols for Franco Nevada. US symbols.?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:43 - ID#207145)
Gold Dancer,
I am very bullish. I've been harping on how the dollar was going to weaken, but I invest when I see fit. Emotions lose you money.

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:52 - ID#411201)
NEM doesn't hedge production so its a great play if now is near the bottom...ABX is on the other end of the spectrum so I prefer companies somewhere in-between like CDE... however ALL win in a bull, some rise more than others of course. Watch volumes for a precursor...

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:52 - ID#233199)
And losing money makes one ...

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:54 - ID#207145)
I prefer Gold stocks, as they have lost the most. Try an oil driller too .

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:55 - ID#434108)
volume preceeds price, and other things

Date: Sat Jul 18 1998 22:23
goldfevr GOLD BULL IS HERE.....NOW. ID#434108:
Mining shares's reluctance to increase volume on 'down-days',
while -even-tho-begrudgingly-.... adding volume on 'up-days';
over many weeks, and several months, now....
is/are one of the most valuable pieces of evidence...
of the unfolding bull-market in precious metals...
at this very time.

Commitment of Traders pattterns/values...
offered us the possibility of a new bear-chapter for gold/metals;
but - by 'hindsight', we will see this as the final "head-fake"...
the bull-market in gold and precious metals markets, is here/now.

The world's liquid/hot capital is nervous, and almost frightened.
Asia has already nose-dived.
So. Africa & Russia have demonstrated that this is not
a regional problem.
My 9/97/ post of "the collapsing tent"...
continues to be confirmed
by all world and local events.

More & more commoditiy markets - PHYSICALS - ( -as in REALITIES ) ,
are confirming
bottoms, mapping out their early stages of new bull markets:
one by one,
the physical commodities, that are real, in a real world,
where humanity lives on the earth,
an earth of of air and land and fire and water.....
humanity is re-discovering it's basic essentials,
for survival, and life.

The basic shift away from paper-dollar denominated/defined assets,
to assets-more-real....
is upon us.

The U.S. dollar will decline/collapse,
as will its dollar-defined investment markets, and economies.
Pride goeth before the fall.

'Foreign' Currecnies led by the D-Mark,
will live in a new bull market of ....of....of...
of alternatives.......
to a dollar-nation that has sold out its soul
to the highest bidder
of ready comfort, convenience, and denial....

The buy of the century will be Yen-calls in the weeks just ahead.

Asia will rebuild, as the West collapses in upon itself.

If we are to survive, civilization must have food,
and we must have energy - fuel for our factories, furnaces, and

Civilization does not need 'paper' to survive, nor to thrive...
unless it is a receipt for something real.....

Civilization would best do away with paper-for-paper's-sake....
lest suicide
would be it's bequest

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(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:56 - ID#207145)
CDE hasn't done that badly has it?

(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:58 - ID#207145)
Thats an Oil driller. They will scream also.

PH in LA
(Sun Jul 19 1998 23:59 - ID#225408)
ANOTHER's Thoughts: Reply to Repairman

Those of us who follow the thoughts of ANOTHER have never felt that his views are expressed with the intention that they be easily understood, rather that we "think long and hard" and were always presented for discussion. The biggest disapointment emanating from Kitco has been the virulence with which his views were criticized here, something for which we all bear some guilt, and the lack of discussion from his critics on the actual content of his thoughts.

I have long felt that his thoughts demonstrate a level of sophistication far above the average understanding of the place for gold in our financial structure. His understanding explains much of what has taken place in the past as well as what we are seeing now.

It seems to me that ANOTHER is saying quite clearly that the gold market has been under very strict control by the Central Banks for some considerable time, ie since the 1980s. We are seeing that the leasing of gold by CBs is a tool to depress the price. When we ask why this is being done we are confronted by two clear objectives. One is the benefit and advantage acruing to the US in the form of cheap oil and low inflation ( helped along by massive inflows of capital from struggling third-world countries ) . This would explain much up until the latest fall in gold to its current value under $300. Since then, we begin to see the effects of factors swirling around the introduction of the Euro.

The latter seems especially interesting as it would set the stage for a very auspicious launch for the Euro. The intentially manipulated low price of gold with the concurrent gigantic overhanging short position ( how big is it? Does it matter? ) gives the Europeans the perfect tool to enhance their currency. Literally, at any moment they have it within their power to pull the plug on the dollar. By simply curtailing their leasing programs, the price of gold would begin to rise. The short covering this would precipitate would do the rest. The dollar would fall, gold would skyrocket and the Euro, with gold reserves would see its value go up with the price of gold.

ANOTHER's scenario contains an internal consistancy that is very compelling. I too, would like to see someone try to poke holes in his thoughts. So far, his critics have dwelled on picune factors such as his syntax and/or the mentality ( or lack of it ) of those of us who recognize the internal consistency of his thoughts. Please, if his thoughts are inconsistent with any aspect of reality as we know it, now would be the time to voice it. What do you have to say, RJ? Are you still out there LGB? Show us the inconsistencies. What do you have to say now about the BIS? The Euro? The gold-carry trade?

Interestingly, other voices sound very similar to the thoughts of ANOTHER. At: )
John Kutyn concludes,
"Currency movements are more and more
becoming disconnected from economic
fundamentals ( which are driven by investment
flows ) . FOREX MOVEMENTS will eventually
have very serious effects on the world
economy, precipitating in a major crash of all
major paper assets. This will lead to calls for a
new way of controlling the world economic
system, a New World Order."

James Dines ( who calls himself the "original gold bug" ) has been bearish on gold for many years. He now forsees inflation, a stock market debacle and continueingcurrency devaluations. Keep in mind thathe predicted the Asian devaluations very early, well before the first signs of it in the markets.

The latest post at USAGold seems to be saying that ANOTHER sees it all coming together much sooner than even many of us expect. ( This year or next at the latest! )

"We wait and watch this gold market together, no?"