Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:02 - ID#411201)
You can read my mind or visa/versa...already own PKD, oil driller, great company but I just mite be a little early...wait till OPEC plans take hold 1-2 months...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:08 - ID#187109)
To Mark O'Meara. What a GREAT VICTORY! AGULP TO YA'!!

and now......
Tantalus.............Goldfver.......................APH ( I watch silver CLOSELY ) ..............
AGULP TO YA!! today........

Goldfever........I will digest your 'stuff' tonight. Thanks. I like your recent stuff. rum.

I hear alot-o-talk about en lately.............. ( hmmmmmmmmmmmm....... ) ............I will buy next when I see one, two, three.............only......right?? ......or I will sell the, CB ( ? ) ???

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:11 - ID#207145)
What are Franco Nevada's Symbols in US?

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:13 - ID#209265)
gagnrad - undelete doesn't work very well . . .
Get the Norton Utilities. There's an "unerase" function that works much better than the MS-DOS "undelete" function.

There's also a function called "diskedit" that lets you look at, and even modify, any part of the hard drive, including "deleted" areas. Be careful playing with this utility, though. If you don't know what you are doing you can mess up your drive bigtime.

- Steve

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:13 - ID#187109)
oh yeah.....

i dig your stuff too..........

but it sometimes baffles me. i am busily deciphering you. do not let me down....... :- ( you got any screws loose? enjoy the rest of Sun Eve.......aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:14 - ID#207145)
PTEN, Patterson energy is the best small one.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:14 - ID#335190)
Arrogant Capital @ Kevin Phillips
"Component number two would be some version of excess profits tax on banks and financial institutions proposed several years ago by the late publisher William Randolph Hearst. He suggested a 25 percent excess profits tax on any financial institution that sold junk bonds or made bad loans until "TAXPAYERS" were reimbursed for the cost of the bailout."

"Instead of means-testing Social Security recipients, Washington could means-test speculators"

"No fiscal program on the national table as yet justifies middle-class sacrifice"

"the previous behavior of the Dutch and British pattern is now repeating in the United States---by tightening tax policy. Economic patriotism, quite simply, requires making individual and corporate investments overseas less rewarding than domestic ones.

Second, and in a related vein, Washington should rewrite its corporate foreign tax credit and foreign tax deferral provisions to discourage U.S. multinationals from investments that move jobs overseas. These loopholes also cost the Treasury too much revenue."

"Karl Marx, who loathed nineteenth-century capitalism, commented in an 1848 speech, ''The free trade system is destructive. It breaks up old nationalities and pushes the antagonism of the proletariat ( worker ) and the bourgeoisie ( middle class ) to the extreme point. It is in this revolutionary sense alone, that I vote in favor of free trade ''

The destruction would occur, Marx argued, because capitalists would use free trade to push wages down. That later happened in turn-of-the-century Britain, prompting much of the British working class to forsake the old pro-free-trade Liberal Party to join the new socialist Labour Party.

"Now similar patterns are visible in the United States"

" Thomas Jefferson had opposed Alexander Hamilton's thesis of a government alliance with finance, and as president, Jefferson did away with Hamilton's first Bank of the United States. Andrew Jackson, in turn, vetoed the extension of the charter of the Second Bank of the United States in 1832, declaring how fine it would be if '' all the stockbrokers, jobbers and gamblers ( were ) swept from the land '' William Jennings Bryan, who sought to shape another watershed, ran against Wall Street in 1896 and almost won. Then in 1932 candidate Franklin D. Roosevelt said he wanted to ''drive the moneychangers from the temple'' and even sixteen years later, when Harry Truman won a surprise reelection, his feisty rhetoric belabored the Republicans as '' bloodsuckers with offices in Wall Street '' few themes were more central to party history."

"Clinton had criticized Wall Street during the campaign, noting the irony of the stock market climbing as the real economy flagged. But as 1993 rolled along, Clinton changed, he began citing upward movement in the stock and bond market as evidence of the success of his economic program---and he expressed interest in the idea of a consumption tax on several different occasions, even referring to the possibility that it might replace part of the income tax."

"even its serious debate---would be a stunning affirmation of the power of the financial sector to promote, in modern form, a tax system like those by which earlier great economic powers put the burden of government on the ordinary citizen."

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:19 - ID#373284)
blooper, Namaste'
FN.TO are the only call letters that I know of for them...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:21 - ID#207145)
Lets see who knows what, then we'll decide who has the loose screws.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:24 - ID#207145)
Does not compute. Must be Toronto. I'll check with broker. Want to pick that one up.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:24 - ID#187109)
*as I said*
do not let me down ;- )
away.............. ( yudaman ) ( ........... ) ... ( ? ) .

( smile tonight ) ...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:26 - ID#207145)
You're alright.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:29 - ID#187109)
*Mark O'Meara*
A HUGE GULP TO YA'!! ..... a green jacket ..................hmmmmmm......and now your name is inscribed on the Claret Cup............less than a year later................I am in awe...........uh huh. watch espn................. ( on his knees ) ..........

buy sugar........... ( Sheller disc. applies ) ........

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:34 - ID#335190)
MAI @ USofA "Fast track" & "IMF" helping the Farmer's? Maybe Multi. Corp. Farmer's EH!
July 16, 1998

Natural calamity, price downturn spells trouble for thousands of farmers

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- From wheat disease in the northern Plains to searing drought in Texas, thousands of U.S. farmers are struggling with natural calamities just as exports are drying up and crop prices are taking a dive.

Republicans sought to highlight their solutions to the farm downturn in the form of a nonbinding resolution by Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, which was approved Thursday by 71-28.

It states that agriculture most needs such items as presidential fast-track trade negotiating authority, tax relief and replenishment of International Monetary Fund accounts to address the Asian financial crisis.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:45 - ID#287186)
Nick@C re lost urls in Netscape on a Wintel machine
Just adds to my suspicion of Windows sabotaging competitors' software.
ANYBODY out there running Netscape on UNIX or a variant thereof?
Netscape has been fairly well behaved on my PowerMac
( other than being sometimes booting up & "unexpectedly quitting".
May Woz & Sun save us all - we hope
if Wintel manages to knock out all the competition
we will be praying/making sacrifices to Gates/Intel
for scraps of upgrades and outrageous prices.
Has ANYONE heard of how Y2K compliant UNIX machines are?
- such as Silicon Graphics, SUN, etc.
Macs are Y2K okay.
I hope Y2K lets some air out of the Wintel machine
( read "machine" with the political monopoly definition )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:45 - ID#284255)
Email comment re: 30 day food limit
The limitations you have seen referred to are in the emergency response
Executive Orders. Most of them are already effective but not being
enforced. The EO 13083 that will become effective in mid-August if not
prevented by Congress contains implicit authority to completely suspend
all civil law and effectively suspends the Tenth Amendment. That's why
some of us a more than "merely concerned."

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:53 - ID#240316)
Blooper - RE: Franco Nevada - Try T.FN
On "Big Charts.Com" that gets it. FN.TO gets it on Yahoo

(Mon Jul 20 1998 00:56 - ID#287186)
Omens of things to come - a hot time in the city tomorrow
News forecasts for tomorrow for Denver - highs near 100 again.
Public Service Company - the electric utility
is forecasting peak demands and has warned everyone in the metro area
of the need to limit electric usage or else
they will have to implement "rolling blackouts"
shutting down residential areas 30 minutes at a time
in a rolling pattern - section by section across the metro area.
They are exempting commercial & industrial users - for now.
They have warned that if consumption is not limited tomorrow
they may very well have a metro-wide blackout.

Also news from hot areas -
tempers are flaring, people are irritable.
Remember the city riots thirty-some years ago
due to heat compounding racial and other tensions.

In some respects it is good Y2K is mid-winter ( for northeners ) .
But if it extends power outages into summer...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:01 - ID#434108)
Neville Chamberlain re-incarnated in Washington D.C. ... ?
kitco draft, 6/22/98 p.m.
Mon, 22 Jun 1998 21:56:21 -0700

Date: Tue Jun 23 1998 00:33
is there a 'Neville Chamberlain' among us? -
"another 'must' for kitcoites":

Copyright  1998 Inc. All rights reserved
In case you missed it,
be sure to read Investor's Business Daily's
front-page article ( 6/19/98
issue : "An Inside Job at Commerce".

My opinion/comments:

Where are .... any Americans ... alarmed enough...
to be outraged at:
the unfolding scandal...
that is defined by - the surrender, sell-out, and turn-over,
of our State Dept.'s once responsible, accountable stewardship,
and responsibility of/for .... both:
our nation's strategic encryption software, and
vital missile & satellite technology ...
to the Dept. of Commerce.

Under the guise and pretense of "leadership" and
the current administration has orchestrated people, instituions,
& events ...
to serve their own, immediate political, short-sighted
'interests' ( =$ ) , and perceived necessities ( =$ ) .... for the
sake of their perceived survival,
control, and dominance.

More & more, the smell and stench of Neville Chamberlains.....
are in the air ... every - where...and esp. in Washington.

Altho the current DNC & Democratic administration may get the
current "Oscar" for betrayal of the nation -- selling us out
to the highest bidder -- for the sake of politcal
fund-raising/vote-securing "victories" ....
sooner or later...
the burmning fuse of the American taxpayers, the American voters,
the American patriots of
sooner or later their fuse of tolerance & restraint will have
burned down to the humble,
honest, rellion-core...
and the electorate of body-politic - of heritage & descendant of
slave-man & free....will
"NO - MORE" !

No more:
corrupt administrations and unbridled 'governing' institutions
of cancerous beauracracy...
who -- tax & manipulate ...
the earners, producers, savers, and consumers ...
of the country .... without restraint, or accountability....
and who -- collude and cooperate with ...
various foreign powers, for the expediency of immmediate need
for campaign support - to the tune of mega-bucks ....
in exchangew for the cheapened price/value of our nation's
heritage, and sacred honor .... not to mention the very real
potential that American blood, will be spilt and wasted ...
in the feigned & needless wars ...
of power-hungry politicians
mis-guided generals
and an electorate of 'sheep'...
being led to the slaughter...

Again, this needless cacaphony of destruction, and
portending possibility
of earthly self-annihilation, need not be re-played.

The pretense of 'spoils' won, or 'objectives' achievable - even
accomplished - are
but-myopic wishful thinking, if the basic flaw of modern
civilization is not healed, cured, and
brought into integrity and balance.

Civiliation will continue to sacrifice itself in the vicxtimhood o
ideology of the masses, the
proletariatt, and the 'elite'...of: "I win when you lose" ...
untill enough suffering pushes
humanity over the edge of no return.

We can find our motivation, in our tendancy to polarizing fear and
mutual attack; or we can
choose, in place of such a sure road to scollective
self-annihilation.....we can choose instead
to align, in faith, and trust,
with one another our peer - reclamation of universale embrace of
the sacred beauty, affection
and joy of life.... inherent in all peoples, every where.

separating fear and selfishness;-intercollective misery,
or enlightened self-interest and collective from
foreign treaties, engagements, alliances wars...which are own
unbridled hierarchy helpedbnation's, and the likely

At the Commerce Dept., there is the most critical interests ( $ )
...of the DNC & the current
presidential branch of government, would be most
...that there is more than 'circumstanial evidence', of ...
collusion & duplicity ...
emanating from the hands, hedonism, and opportunism,
of the "highest office" of this land ..
that jeopardize the security of this nation
for the sake of collusion ...
and the unbridled grasp for power ....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:19 - ID#220325)
Article "Windows 98 disables Microsoft competitors software".
Posted previously by someone else 9807/14/livingston.idg/index.html

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:34 - ID#286253)
@ goldfever re your 22:33 - Why COT net short silver?

I am just curious as to _why_ the COT numbers show a net short commercial position for silver and a net long position for gold. It was suggested here earlier that this might be because silver producers hedge production. But silver producers are no different than gold producers in this respect. Why are the COT numbers so de-synched?

You would think otherwise; that is, you would think that the silver commercials would be more long than the gold commecials. Why? Because the net commercial deficit for silver exceeds that of gold. For every 100 ozs Eureka Silver Mines sells forward, Kodak buys 120 ozs forward. This is not the case in the gold market, where investment demand plays a greater role.

Here is my theory ( conjecture? ) - Fabricator leasing plays a larger role in the silver biz than in the gold biz. Silver consumers have gone nuts leasing at prime - 2 instead of going to the bank for working capital at prime +2. There has been more of this in Si than in G. How does this effect the dealer? Well, he may buy spot, lease it out to Mr. Kodak and hedge with a short down the road. That would account for the difference. But this implies that the dealer's "commercial" accounts would be registered as a commercial positions. I think this is the case but am not entirely sure. Will find out.

Thanks for the COT references.

Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:45 - ID#187109)
*x'cuuuuuuze me*
claret cup = claret jug hang my face in shame

go gold.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:48 - ID#286253)
@Bart, SysAdmin, someone? - Change of handle?

Would like my handle changed to NotSam ( as everyone now probably knows me by this ) Can this be done via a request like this? Or do I have to re-register? Or should I email you or someone?

Thanking you in advance,

Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:50 - ID#269207)
I could nave went until tomorrow to have heard that lil piece of News.
but thanks just the same.. This ought to prove interesting since we will unlikely have enough grain for ourselves...what do you suppose will be the price of what is harvested when we will have to compete with the Japanese and everyone else for our Grain...the Gold of Grain, may have just arrived sports....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:55 - ID#257148)
Bill G --- Emperor of the World (in waiting).........

Congratulations on your purchase of Windows 98 ( C ) , the latest version of
the world's #1 computer operating system from Microsoft. Before using your
new software, please take the time to read these instructions carefully.

Failure to do so may further limit the terms of the limited warranty.

Windows 98 ( C ) represents a significant technological improvement over
Microsoft's previous operating system, Windows 95 ( C ) . You'll notice
immediately that "98" is a larger number than "95," a better than 3
increase. But that's not all. Windows 98 ( C ) contains many features not
found in Windows 95 ( C ) , or in any competing computer operating system, if
there were any. Among the improvements: faster storing and retrieving of
files ( not in all models ) , enhanced "Caps Lock" and back-space
functionality, smoother handling, less knocking and pinging, an
easy-to-follow 720-page User's Guide, and rugged weather-resistant shrink
wrap around the box. Most important, Windows 98 ( C ) offers superior
compatibility with all existing Microsoft products. We're betting that
you'll never use another company's software again.

Windows 98 ( C ) comes factory-loaded with the latest version of Microsoft
Explorer, the world's most popular Internet browser. And despite what you
may have heard from the U.S. Department of Justice, Windows 98 ( C ) offers
you the freedom to select the Internet browser of your choice, whether
the one produced by the world's largest and most trusted software
or by a smaller company that will either go out of business or become part
of the Microsoft family.

Configuring Windows 98 ( C ) to use a browser other than Microsoft Explorer
easy. Simply open the "Options" folder, click on the "time bomb" icon,
select "Load Inferior Browser." A dialog box will ask "Are you sure?"
Click "yes." This question may be asked several more times in different
ways; just keep clicking "yes." Eventually, the time-bomb icon will
to fill the entire screen, signifying that the browser is being loaded.

You'll know the browser is fully loaded when the fuse on the time bomb
out" and the screen "explodes." If at any time after installation you
become disappointed with the slow speed and frequent data loss associated
with other browsers, simply tap the space bar on your keyboard.Microsoft
Explorer will automatically be re-installed -- permanently.

Windows 98 ( C ) also corrects, for the first time anywhere, the "Year 2000"
computer problem. As you may know, most computers store the current year
a two-digit number and, as a result, many will mistake the year 2000 for
1900. Windows 98 ( C ) solves the problem by storing the year as a
number and, in theory, you won't have to upgrade this part of the
system until the year 10,000. However, the extra memory required to
the year in four digits has prompted a few minor changes in the
internal calendar. Henceforth, Saturday and Sunday will be stored as a
single day, known as "Satsun," and the month of June will be replaced by
15-day months called "Bill" and "Melissa."

Please also take the time to complete the online registration form. It
takes a few minutes and will help us identify the key software problems
customers want addressed. Be assured that none of the information you
provide, whether it's your Social Security number, bank records,
fingerprints, or retina scan, will be shared with any outside company not
already designated as a Microsoft DataShare partner.

We've done our best to make using Windows 98 ( C ) as trouble-free as
possible. We want to hear from you if you're having any problems at all
with your software. Simply call our toll-free Helpline and follow the
recorded instructions carefully. ( The Helpline is open every day but
Satsun, and is closed for the entire month of Bill. )

If we don't hear from you, we'll assume your software is working
and an electronic message to that effect will be forwarded to the Justice
Department. We'll also send, in your name, a letter to the editor of your
hometown newspaper, reminding him or her that American consumers want
designed by companies that are free to innovate, not by government

Again, thanks for choosing Windows 98 ( C ) .

(Mon Jul 20 1998 01:55 - ID#34883)
late night music
I don't want to spoil the party so I'll go.
I would hate my disapointment to show.
There's nothing for me here,
So I will disappear.
If she turns up while I'm gone please let me know.
I've had a drink or two and I don't care..
Theres no fun in what I do if she's not there.
I wonder what went wrong?
I played it far too long.
I think I'll take a walk and look for her.
Though tonight she's made me sad ... I still love her
If I find her I'll be glad ...I still love her.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:07 - ID#252150)
Erle@I don't think that there is any doubt that ABX sold fwd to 1 or more CBs.
I feel that they are in collusion with the CBs. Even if they had'nt sold 10 mil ozs fwd, they are very profitable at the current POG & next year their newest mine in Peru will be the world's lowest producer @ $60/oz.
BTW, I'm not a big fan of Munk & feel that he lucked into the Nevada properties. I like ABX because it's big & liquid & although I only trade it, if I only held 1 au stock for the long term it would be ABX. Anyone who buys au jrs is pure & simple gambling, with very bad odds.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:17 - ID#257148)
You sold how much future production? ((interviewer's Q to Munk, 02/02/02))
James/ All

You know, I think it would be an interesting exercise to calculate the total forward sales of all the Au producers, and the years that they fall due. I can see how the unwinding of these Leases and forward sales could allow the astute investor jump into struggling Au producers and purchase for a penny in the pound...

"The further foward we see the deeper in the shite we stand"


(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:25 - ID#187109)
got grammar?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:27 - ID#187109)
you ole mac dude
tora tora toranewone......

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:30 - ID#269207)
@mole, please do
go, and if you promise to take that tune, we will certainly do our best send her to you...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:31 - ID#257148)
What's in a name?
All you need to do is ask Bartman nicely via e-mail. Gagnrad did it,changed his handle from a catchy number to an unforgettable tongue-twister.
In the old days, before passports ( I mean passwords ) there were only 4 people posting using a dozen different handles, and most of them were Ted who was only a figment of a computer anyhoo. Yes, it's true. Kitco was once a Turing Experiment and it worked.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:33 - ID#269207)
@grammar crackers I got,
and if you are smart EB, you will get some two.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:41 - ID#257148)
Hey old brewin buddy, how's it swinging? Some 17 yr old gawfers are gifted, yes?

I read this merkan fella the other day, Patrick Henry. You probly heard of him, yes? probly know him off by heart. Without my merkan friends to help me, how could I learn of your heros? you history? Wow That man can orate...

May you regain your freedoms, amigos!
You deserve it. Aye.

May it be done peaceably. Aye!
May it be done, anyway. Aye.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:45 - ID#34883)
I listened too, and am still, that song, to get them words right. I am disappointed by your post. Go Gold.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 02:52 - ID#269207)
Let's put it this way, I can't buy no hay for de cows, because they sold it all away, and I cannot buy the WA Cherries, because they sold dem all away, Now it LOoks, like de are gonna sell de Grain...Damn what am I supposed to buy wid all dis Gold. HEY!!!.GOOOOOOOO Gold..

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:01 - ID#34883)
@ the aether
Goldbuggerdom is deep.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:15 - ID#269207)
@I know
a similar tune so well, I don need to hear another's version, nor upon it, to dwell, so you can either take your lil' tune with you, or I will tell mine as well....and ol' Bart is out there gold go.....^s^....and please take your lil' with you, and I will do as well..

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:27 - ID#386245)
What a great place...
...this Kitco is.

My thanks to Speed, IDT and gagnrad and any others I've missed for assistance in finding my missing files. I believe my URL's are still there, somewhere, maybe. The problem is that my computer and Netscape are having a rather messy divorce. ANYTHING that has to go through Netscape brings up an illegal operation message and I am told to "Make sure the path and filename are correct, bs, etc.I can't even reload Netscape without getting wacked. Any comp whizzes out there??

Bill Gates--I know you're lurking, mate. Why is my Microsoft Windows rejecting Netscape?? What have I done to you?? I did tell a joke about you buying ABX a few months ago, but is that any reason...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:38 - ID#269207)
@Nick @C
I do not know why your Windows will not load Netscape, but I do know that a lil' excess preasure from lightening storms, ran Explorer 4.01
into Win95 and I had to reload Win95, in order be able to re-load explorer and Netscape programs.......: ) ) ) ) ) )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:43 - ID#386245)
have been bought/sold in the past two days

(Mon Jul 20 1998 03:52 - ID#269207)
@Won't load
That url Nic@C, is there a problem there, that I cannot see.....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:02 - ID#386245)
Isn't it great...
...not to have any URL's to worry about!! No more searching. No more organizing. I might even talk to my family once in a while. What a relief!! Now I wonder what Kaplan has got to say? Vronsky got any good new stuff? Who cares about the POG anyway. Silly inert metal. Doesn't even combine with oxygen to make good rust. Useless stuff. Think I'll put it all in the Salvos bucket at Xmas.Good thing I can still find Kitco.Need about 2000 URL's to get back to info overload.Was it Locke that desribed a "tabula rasa"? Or was it Hobbes?? Gonna be a "tabula rasa"!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:12 - ID#386245)
G'day Dave.
Works for me, mate. I USED to have another one for that miner. Don't have to go searchin' anymore, caus' my tabula has been rasa'd.

cheers, Nick@URL's AIN'T US

John Disney__A
(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:15 - ID#24135)
Go Rand !
To all
Jse-golds up 30 at 10 am .. rand weakened to
6.45 ..

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:26 - ID#257148)
you no rasser by tab,,,ola?
worked for me too

Hey Nick@eraserrasser buy a Mac, Mac. What linx you want?

like that?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:29 - ID#290287)
You got Win95? I only know a few things try with Win95.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:35 - ID#287186)
Nick@C - time to salvage the valuables and jump ship
Did Speed's suggestion of finding any file named "bookmark.htm"
using the Tools, Find, Files or Folders option in Windows Explorer
or any of Windows or DOS file location abilities do any good?

Do you have a zip, MO or tape drive where you can copy
any data files that you may need later? Failing that then it's
the old diskette shuffle with lots of floppies. Failing that
{if you don't have a pile of available floppies}
perhaps try e-mailing them to yourself with a huge attachment.
It may take all night to upload them. :- ( ( ( (

Wiping the drive can be a cleansing experience.
Reinstalling everything from CDs, installation floppies, etc.
gives you the feeling of "tabula rasa" or a clean start.
Sometimes I think that if lightening struck my hard drives
or the feds confiscated all my disks it would be a load off my mind.
Similar to the cleansing ritual of giving everything away
as described in the book HANTA YO

Maybe Y2K could do that for us.
Though a lot of good stuff would be lost.

I would regret losing creative and original writings of mine...
thoughts and ideas that I may never again be able to duplicate.
THOSE I would regret losing the most.
Which reminds me to make hard copies of them ASAP or sooner.
Which in turn reminds me that major libraries are doing just that -
printing hardcopies of valuable computerized literature because
magnetic and even optical media are not as archival as paper.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:35 - ID#290287)
Make a folder named [backup] and copy your bookmark & email address files into it.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:38 - ID#284255)
Check your email..

Note that Ed Yardeni will be interviewed by Matt Lauer on NBC's Today Show about the economic implications of y2k on Monday, July 20, between 7:00-7:30 am in New York.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:41 - ID#290287)
Better make that acid-free, lignin-free, 100% rag paper.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:44 - ID#252391)
To Sam A - re silver fabricators and their short
Sam A I think you raise a very good point a few posts back about the fabricator/dealers having a short position against their lease to the users, showing up as short open interest in the COT. ( Commitment of Traders Report ) . Yours is a very bullish consrtruction of the situation and I can not find an arquement with your reasoning.

Following on from your point I conclude that the larger the dealers short open interest the more bullish the situation. First we can assume a dealer is going to want a relativiely flat position ,maybe slightly scewed, and therefore have a short position agaist most of his inventory - the silver leased to the user. He'll unwind the short futures position when he gets his silver back for the party that leased it from him or her or it.

the leaased silver has to be replaced and a purchase of a future ( s ) has to be made to offset the dealer's short, if it isn't before the user replaces the silver, buying it in the market. We end up with a need to find two ready sellers of silver for the same amount of silver in the lease because the amount leased has been used.

If I were a consumer of silver and had an expanding lease portfolio I had to make good on someday, I'd have a call or be thinking about putting some on. If you have used the silver and are just rolling forward your leases, increasing them, you look great. But should you see that party is over or ending you'd be a buyer just in case the price of what you no longer have and must returned goes up as its been well predicted it will.

Silver and gold will surprise people by how much they rise.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:50 - ID#252391)
Thanks John Disney
Thanks for the update on SO Africa. Yahoo seems to have been down - I though you all were having a holiday.

Up 30 - Rand at 6.45 - More gold sales by the South African's as the Rand declines - the press will say. I don't think the investing public understanding the impact of the declining Rand on earnings.

Maybe we shouldn't tell them.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 04:50 - ID#252391)
Thanks John Disney
Thanks for the update on SO Africa. Yahoo seems to have been down - I though you all were having a holiday.

Up 30 - Rand at 6.45 - More gold sales by the South African's as the Rand declines - the press will say. I don't think the investing public understanding the impact of the declining Rand on earnings.

Maybe we shouldn't tell them.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:01 - ID#287186)
regarding alarming conspiracies and new world orders
I too have grave reservations about alarmist "interpretations" of every leaf that falls in the forest. The "New American" published by the John Birch Society falls into that category of "alarmist". Occasionally these individuals, groups or publications may discover something that bears more scrutiny. We cheat ourselves of valuable information and sources of intelligence if we ignore their "findings". It is easy for the "alarmist" mindset to read such an executive order and see boogeymen behind every word. It is similarly easy for those who approach such an executive order with a trusting view of government to miss threatening legal statements buried in lots of sweet, placating prose. It is good we toss such items back and forth among us to get different views because our personal views and prejudices color our interpretation of anything we read.

A sentence that I picked out of Executive Order 13083 we have been kicking around here that does cause me some concern is:

Agencies may limit the policymaking discretion of States and local governments ONLY AFTER DETERMINING THAT THERE IS CONSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL AUTHORITY FOR THE ACTION.
The emphasis was placed by someone who e-mailed me the text of the E.O. and I agree with their emphasis. The LEGAL AUTHORITY portion leaves a large hole through which an ambitious federal government could drive most anything through.

One signficant rebuttal to the alarmist interpretation is the Supreme Court nullification of the portion of the Brady Bill that required local sheriff departments to conduct background checks. The grounds for such nullification, to the best of my understanding, were based upon the unconsitutionality of the federal government imposing such requirements on the states. Most of the "requirements" that the federal government places upon States seems to me to be in the form of "strings" attached to federal "benefits". To get the benefits the States "voluntarily" agree to abide by the "strings". Apparently that method was overlooked in the Brady Bill. I assume the Brady Bunch will address that problem in the future.

Eternal vigilance IS the cost of our Freedom. One of the most valuable resources that the Internet provides us is the ability for many of us to ferret out little bits and pieces and toss them on the table here for all of us to review. We each bring different to bear different perspectives derived from different life experiences. Perhaps one of us will notice something of import, some pattern or trend that others may miss. Only by having free access to as much data and information as possible do we have a chance at seeing through the fog. THAT is what constitutes intelligence.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:10 - ID#257148)
free to you nickleodeon check url e-male

(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:21 - ID#287186)
Regarding our ferreting out bits and pieces of "intelligence"
As I have far too often spent way too much time reading posts here and browsing elsewhere on the Net I have found I have neglected other sources of valuable information.
I shall not be able to finish "Tragedy & Hope" before the interlibrary loan is up. I did get far enough in it to convince me it is worth buying. There are also books which others have loaned me or given to me that I must get to ASAP.
Magazines which I used to pretty thoroughly read have been piling up mostly unread - Business Week, Byte, MacWorld, PC World, US News, Conservative Chronicle, The Economist and others. At least I manage to get through Analog and Asimov's - for recreational reading at least.
And then there is just talking with folks - either in my store or over coffee or a beer.
Spending too much time here and in the Net can be like having blinders on regarding life around us. It does give me an international view - but so does The Economist which I have been neglecting.
Even television does have some benefit - such as finding out about the "rolling blackouts" that will be imposed on Denver later today due to the heat. {though I really despise the advertising that wastes my time}.

I watched Babylon 4's "Third Space" last night.
This movie was GOOD science/future fiction.
It leads me to think, to ponder, to reflect.
Our Y2K problems
and the political chaos they open the door to
are small
compared to the larger perspective of
our planet,
our solar system,
our galaxy,
our universe and life within it,
the millennia
the eons of time.

We shall survive as a species - for now.
For the present I must contemplate how
I may survive the coming chaos
and reach the other side
of what/when
I can not foresee.

But for a species of minds that can conceive
of such futures as we describe in science fiction
there is hope...
I hope.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:22 - ID#386245)
Thanks finnie, auracious, sam ( or is it notsam?? ) and squirrel ( gonna bring you some hazel nuts next time in Co. ) . You are all good Kitcomates. Problem is that if I even think about Netscape, I get an error message. I can't transfer or save or even look at the URL's, 'caus my computer has black-banned any thoughts of Netscape. Am gonna send an e-mail to Bill--caus he sold me this thing!! No worries, mates. I deserve a good, long holiday. Gonna come back when gold goes to 400--about 6 months.Will then be a squillionaire and buy Microsoft for ten bucks a share!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:23 - ID#287186)
oops - make that Babylon 5 (not 4
What role might Gold have in such a future?

Paul Gold__A
(Mon Jul 20 1998 05:58 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Market Report
The ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch weekly is now available at

At noon the JSE Gold Index is up 24 points ( 2.28% ) and the Rand at 6.36 to the US$, about the same as it ended on Friday.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:08 - ID#412286)
Gingrich and the Republicans want to use the surplus to phase out the estate tax and lower capital gains tax. Hey guys if it werent for the Social Security tax there would be no surplus ergo the surplus should be used to pay down debt to shore up Social Security. The Republicans are so obviously in the hip pocket of the Rich and Big Business it is unbeliveable. Republican poliocies are dangerous to the health of the average American. Remeber they want tax cuts for the rich at the expense of Social Security and you should not be allowed to SUE your HMO when they refuse you or a loved one treatment and death or injury results. What a bunch of great guys and gals.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:11 - ID#411440)
@ ALL: At the opening of the London Metal Ex. silver moved quickly
to $5.40, just slightly above its 50 day moving average. There is
no change in slver lease rates.

So far this morning gold is range bound between 294 and 295, with
no change in very low lease rates. IMHO if gold moves above
295, it becomes vulnerable to gold carry shorting. We shall see.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:23 - ID#284255)
Y2K mission critical: failures are imminent
New research indicates that up to 50 per cent of businesses worldwide will experience failure of mission-critical computer systems in the next 18 months due to the millennium bug, with software fixes alone projected to cost up to $US600bn ( $952bn ) .

The revised estimates have markedly downgraded earlier predictions of the state of industry preparedness for Y2K.

"The State governments are all a bit slow in meeting their Y2K deadlines, while in the Federal Government some agencies are in better shape than others," said Morris. "Unfortunately, in Australia all the activity has been in the last six months."

Having just returned from an overseas tour, Morris said that even in the United States, where Y2K awareness is the highest in the world, progress towards fixing the problem is patchy.
This only mentions mission critical which is only a small %%% of actual programs.
Massive Y2K tests begin: Win3.1 first casualty
Insurers to exclude millennium bomb
Insurance claims for travellers who are killed or suffer personal injury, disruption or delays because of the "millennium bomb" may be excluded by clauses that insurers are to begin writing into travel policies.
CGU, the UK's biggest composite insurance group and a large travel underwriter is to exclude claims made for policyholders who suffer personal injury or die from accidents related to the millennium problem.
Talk about confidence of the associated risks.
Who's going to fly????
ASIAFOCUS-Business battens down for millennium bug
Asia will be the first and possibly least prepared region of the world to face the dreaded millennium bug and its associated computer chaos.
She said countries that may survive the bug threat were Hong Kong, India, Singapore, Taiwan and the Philippines.
The ones at risk? Indonesia and China.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:25 - ID#269207)
@sounds like the
software problems I was having Nick@C, because power surge ( lightening ) mixed up Win95 an Explorer 4.01, I had to run Instal on Win95, before it cleared and things would work again

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:27 - ID#284255)
Feeling confident??? well read on.
60% of Largest U.S. Companies Have 93% of the Job to Go

According to a recent study of reports filed to the Securities and Exchange Commission, 60% of the largest firms in the United States admitted that they were not finished with the assessment phase.

According to the California White Paper, assessment is 5% of a y2k repair project, after awareness ( 1% ) and inventory ( 1% ) . This means that 60% of the reporting firms have at least 93% of their task ahead of them.

Most of them began their projects in 1995 or later.

There is no question: the majority of the largest U.S. firms will not meet the deadline. But no one inside the business world says this, and no one in the programming world does, either. That which is obvious is not politically correct.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:30 - ID#411440)
@ ROR: Yes they are a real bunch of sweeties. Although we
all hate taxes, they are the only fair mechanism to redistribute wealth
via social services back down to lower income people who really do
consume. Without taxes, the rich would gradually acquire all
wealth, and nothing would be left in the pocket of the ordinary
consumer to operate the economy.

In 1929, the upper 1% of ultra wealthy in the USA owned 36% of all
the national wealth. One theory is that this precipitated the
great depression, as ordinary consumers no longer had the liquidity
to operate the economy. The economy seized as demand dried up.

Today the ultra rich own 40%. The only thing that keeps the economy
moving is the tax-recycling downward of liquidity via social services.

Every vote for a Republican tax holiday is another vote for a
depression. IMHO

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:32 - ID#284255)
This article is informative re: money and it's circulation.
Federal Reserve's Y2K Honcho Announces Victory; Quits
Facts and figures are a real eye-opener.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:35 - ID#29048)
Yen and Gold....a sometimes link
Thinking About Trading Gold?
Better Check Yen's Value First


It has become almost a joke among gold traders: Recently, if you've wanted to know what's going on with gold, you look not at mining production or jewelry-making or even central bank sales. Instead, you look at the yen.

Gold and the Japanese currency have moved, with a few deviations here and there, in virtual lockstep since early June. That was when the new European Central Bank announced it will hold no more than 15% of its reserves of about $55 billion in gold when it takes over European monetary policy next year.

Until about a month ago, bearish news from the world's central banks about sales of their gold hoards, along with investors' clear preference for booming stocks, have been the biggest factors in gold's two-year downward move. Since January 1996, the nearby-month gold futures contract has fallen about $100 from levels near $400 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The European bank's announcement, which was at the low end of analysts' expectations and gold bugs'hopes, sent gold below $300 an ounce, and it looks like it may stay there. Hence, gold traders, at a loss for other news, have turned their attention to the yen.

"All the other fundamentals are known. We know how little investment demand there is. We know about producer selling and the central banks," says George Gero, a senior vice president for investments at Prudential Securities and a longtime gold trader. "The X factor, then, has been purchasing power from Japan and from the Far East in general. So gold, almost on a daily basis, has been moving with the yen." Other traders agree. Joe DiFranks, a broker with Fimat Group, says reactions on the floor have been reflexive. "People down there say 'Look, the yen's up,'
and then they'll bid gold up," he says. As Asian currency watchers know, the yen link hasn't made for favorable gold-price moves any more than
have central-bank apathy and stock-happy investors. The yen, battered by Japan's financial crisis, has fallen around 20% against the dollar since early 1997. Prospects for the currency in mid-June were so dim that on June 17, a day after the yen traded as high as 146.75 against the dollar, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of Japan stepped in to bolster it. Thanks to their efforts, the yen on that day returned to healthier levels of around 136.

Gold moved in tandem. On June 15, it was trading near its nadir, settling at $284.60, the lowest since hitting 12 1/2-year lows in January. Two days later, after the intervention, it settled nearly $10 higher, at
$293. Since then, with new developments in the yen,including the recent Japanese elections, gold has traded near the top of its recent range of $295 to $300 an ounce.

In Comex trading Friday, the August gold contract settled at $295.10 an ounce, up $1.10. The yen strengthened as well, trading at 139.50 in New York late Friday, compared with 140.05 on Thursday.

Tony Warwick-Ching, a metals analyst at Flemings Global Mining Group in London, says yen-watching hasn't been limited to gold traders. "Even the base metals have been reacting to the yen/dollar rate. It's taken as an index for Far Eastern strength" among metals traders of all stripes, he says. But he says the effect has been most pronounced with gold: "Gold
has a specific worry because a weaker yen means a higher domestic price in Japan." Mr. Warwick-Ching notes that this isn't the first time gold and the yen have moved together, pointing to a period between 1993 and 1995 when both were relatively strong. But that trend, he says, "was much less clearly identifiable. People weren't focusing on it then like they are now."

But investors with a golden gleam in their eye should note that, as strong as the correlation has been for the last few weeks, it isn't likely to last indefinitely. "Some of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy," says Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group in New York, which tracks metals prices. "People now will say the yen is the end-all and be-all, so they'll trade gold that way and the two will mirror each other. But it will only last until something different happens in one
of the markets' fundamentals."

According to data from CPM, gold and the yen have indeed been moving in the same direction since early 1997. But each market has had its own upticks and downticks, and those don't always match up. And while in the past month the two have correlated closely, in the first six months of 1998 yen moves only explained gold moves about half the time. "You can pick out times where the correlation works for currencies, but you can also pick out times where it has been inflation or interest rates that seem to explain gold for a while," says Mr. Christian.

Such trends also may reveal more about gold's lack of direction than they do about where it's going. "Back in the late '70s and early '80s, gold went to $850 because of the hostage crisis and inflation. Why? Because there were no crude oil, no S&P index futures, and no currencies to trade. Gold was the only game in town," says Scott Meyers, a senior analyst at Pioneer Futures in New York. "Now, the old school of gold is gone."

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:45 - ID#29048)
S. Africa's Anglogold -5: Snapshot
It's about time the WSJ started covering the S.A. gold stocks!!!

July 20, 1998
S. Africa's Anglogold -5: Snapshot
Dow Jones Newswires

Anglogold Ltd. ( ANGLY ) is South Africa's and the world's biggest gold mining company through an array of listed and unlisted companies.

Address: 55 Marshall St., Marshalltown, 2107, South Africa.

Significant developments: In March 1998, shareholders of Vaal Reefs Exploration & Mining Co. gave their approval to rename their company Anglogold as part of wider restructuring of the gold mining activities controlled by Anglo American Corp. Through a series of share swap takeover offers, Anglogold merged with Elandsrand Gold Mining Co., Western Deep Levels Ltd., Eastvaal Gold Holdings Ltd., East Rand Gold & Uranium Co., Free State Consolidated Gold Mines Ltd., Southvaal Holdings Ltd. and H.J. Joel Gold Mining Co. In an effort to trim costs, Anglogold in early 1998 began selling some gold shafts at its Vaal Reefs and Free State Gold operations.

In May 1998, the company entered into a joint venture with Barrick Gold Corp. of Canada that gives Anglogold a half share in Barrick's African projects.

The following are company results in rand and cents.*

Sales.........2.89 bln....3.02 bln.....5.91 bln.....5.41 bln
Pretax Pft...643.2 mln....573.9 mln.....1.22 bln...993.9 mln
Net Pft......418.4 mln....312.5 mln....730.9 mln...514.5 mln
EPS..........430 cts.......321 cts.....751 cts......529 cts
Dividend - - 750 cts -
*The company was formed in March 1998 and, as such, no comparable full year results are yet available. Results for the first half of 1997 have been restated.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:52 - ID#242325)
lease Rates
Rhody; Thanks much for your myriad posta re: lease rates and their impact on POG. Especally appreciate your pointing out that lease rates must drop below 1% and then start to climb before POG can spike.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 06:59 - ID#412286)
Rhody Good response
But what is interesting today is that the amount of consumer spending on credit dwarfs '29. The bankruptcy trend tells what is really happening in the 90s. There will be an absolute explosion when the depression unfolds. Hence an attempt at bankruptcy reform to protect banks and make them damn deadbeats pay. If the IMF is bailing out big investors then bankruptcy where needed on the personal level is an honorable response to bailout of big investors. Chapter 7 a badge of honor against a corrupt and hypocritical system. I have actually had some buttons made like the ones you see on election day ie "I voted" except mine say "I achieved economic freedom today" "ask me how"..the backdrop is a smiley face. I love it you have to market and make people feel good about what they are doing. My clients walk out of an interview with me feeling proud to declare bankruptcy. The IMF comparison eliminates any reticence about asserting their rights. If the RICH get bailed out why should your kids suffer...I ask

(Mon Jul 20 1998 07:07 - ID#333127)
Can't find a gold bull anywhere, wonder what Dines is saying?????

(Mon Jul 20 1998 07:30 - ID#411440)
@ ROR: Yes the amount of consumer debt right now is alarming.
It is going to be a nightmare when interest rates rise ( as they will ) .
I am debt free and sitting with gold and pm stocks, land and collectibles.

The other great factor that precipitated the hungry thrities was
the termination of consumer demand by ten years of high
consumption inspired by easy credit. After ten years of non-stop
buying, the great majority of consumers had all their durables, and
was switching to paper ( stocks ) that fed the last parabolic stages
of the equity boom. Sound familiar? If anything, present
credit is even easier and consumer debt even higher.

Baby boomers have all their durables now and have switched to equities,
and industrial output in the N. American markets is about to be hit
by the double blow of both the Asian flu and dropping consumer demand.
Under these conditions, there is only one direction for the markets to
go. The only question is when. I don't see this market lasting past
October. IMHO Please note, I predicted that this market would decline
back in the third week in March, and it still drags on, so perhaps my
opinion is worth very little. Gold stocks are sitting at one quarter
to one half of their 1993 values, so perhaps they won't correct.
Actually my prediction for a March sell off was not too bad, as March
marks the last month that the market actually rose. Since then it
has gone sideways, with only index blue chips rising a paultry 3%.
Why would anybody invest their savings in a market which has a 3% upside and a 87% downside potential. Madness!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 07:31 - ID#284255)
From the CIO/GSA
Monster list of urls for survivalism and health.
Compliments of the web

(Mon Jul 20 1998 07:38 - ID#374204)
Greetings blooper & EB
You've been discussing one of my favorites. Try
TSE:FN for Franco-Nevada Mining and
TSE:EN for Euro-Nevada Mining ( sister gold company,heavier in oil & gas )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 07:44 - ID#29048)
Fed to lower rates?????

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:04 - ID#248180)
BIS Review & Reports Latest

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:06 - ID#411440)
@ Speed: If the rumors of the Fed dropping interest rates are
true, this is good news for the world and the POG. If true, it means
the Fed. is beginning the process of reinflation to head off the
market crash. The dollar will deflate, the market hopefully goes
sideways and gold should explode. The best case scenario under
present conditions is stagflation for the next ten years as the price
we pay for equity exceses.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:19 - ID#427357)
Japan Is Still Part of the Asian Problem Not the Solution

Forbes Magazine columnist and international analyst shares his views on the transcendental events ravaging the Far-East.

Dr. A. Gary Shilling believes the Japanese are the root of the Asian Contagion, rather than being just a part of it.

Japan in the 1990s Is Like the US in the 1930s

"That has happened in the 1990s. Back in March 1988, while the
Japanese bubble economy was still expanding rapidly, we
published our third book with a chapter titled, "A Depression is
More Likely in Japan than in the US." In it, we compared the
1980s in Japan with the Roaring '20s in America, and went on to
forecast that the 1990s there would resemble the 1930s here-a
decade of depression and slow workout of the previous decade's

The 1936 Parallel . . .

"The Japanese seem determined to rerun the US miserable
experience in the 1930s, even down to the serious American
mistakes of 1936. After the economic collapse ended in 1933, US
bank reserves grew rapidly-not due to aggressive Federal
Reserve open market action but because of the gold influx from
abroad, after the US revalued the yellow metal, and silver
purchases by the Treasury, which used them to support Western
mining states."

Forbes Columnist report may be read in its entirety at following URL. Per "custom" it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" of the URL, before posting it to the Internet:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:26 - ID#35571)
If the Fed were to lower rates now or in the near future or if it were thought they were going to, the markets and bonds would go to even higher levels and the pecious metals would go to even lower levels. It has always been thus.

The market is reacting to the news of economic slowdown in an overly optimistic way. The Fed can hardly lower rates now with unemployment at near all time lows without inducing a great deal of inflation and overheating of already red hot markets. No, they have to wait.

Nor do I think they can raise rates which would only worsen the current global financial crises especially in asia.

I do think the eventual move will be to lower rates, but only after the economy, employment figures, and the equities markets have cooled quite a bit from where they are now.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:33 - ID#286284)
@ jims re your 4:44 - Why silver COT net Short?

For those unaware of the PM lease situation, I agree: "Silver and gold will surprise people by how much they rise." As someone here often says: "indeedy."

It was posted last night that the recent moves in the internet stocks ( AMZN, etc. ) was largely caused by short covering ( thanks to the poster. ) This is a graphic illustration of what can happen when a small portion of an issue's open interest decides ( or has to ) go the other way. If 5% of the people decide to cross the floor, you get price movements far greater than 5%. Right now, the spec short position in gold is 1/4 total CB reserves. That's a lotta gold walking across the floor.

To continue with previous thread, does anyone have other ideas as to why the commercials are short siver? RJ? Mr. Butler?

cheers all and happy trades this week.

sam__A ( not sam! )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:36 - ID#29048)
Rhody, Gollum
If I understand the article correctly, the market is already discounting a rate decrease in the short-term instruments, said decrease expected in the fall as the economy cools. bwdik

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:38 - ID#427357)
THE YEAR 2K DERBY -- A Computer Parable

Doug McIntosh paints a very interesting picture forecasting how the ramifications of the looming Y2K problem will affect each of us. His method of explanation takes the form of an analogy with the Kentucky Derby.

His final question is indeed thought-provoking: "After all, you have bet more than you can afford to lose on this horse race. Think about it.

It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" of the URL, before posting it to the Internet:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:48 - ID#411440)
@ Speed: The recent drop in lease rates adds credence to the rumor
of dropping interest rates. The CBs will have to drop lease rates
if they have any hope of maintaining the gold carry trade and
keeping the POG below $300. With a one percent drop in interest rates,
the CBs will have to drop lease rates to ZERO to maintain the gold
carry. We can expect a big billboard outside the Federal Reserve Bank

These are interesting times.

One might ask, how could seemingly intelligent people get themselves
into such economic hot water. CBs have loaned out 8000 tonnes of
gold, at 1-2k% lease rates, and there is no way it can be recovered,
and still satisfy normal gold consumption rates of 2-3 thousand tonnes.
How do the leasees buy back 3 years of mine production in just a few
months, while competing with normal gold demand by fabricators, plus
heightened speculative demand? The answer is the frog/hot water analogy.
If you throw a frog in hot water, he will immediately jump out. But if
you slowly raise the water temperature while the frog sits in it, he
will stay there until he is cooked. I think the CBs have applied the
gold carry trade to the point where the short overhand has built up to
lethal proportions. A lack of communication between CBs participating
in the leasing game, could have hidden the scope of the short overhang.
The water is pretty hot right now, but will the CBs jump out?

If they jump, we will see either a rapid lease rate rise, or a termination of leasing. The POG will explode, and the shorts
will default on the leases. Heads will roll in CBs.

If they don't jump, lease rates will drop near zero, yet there will
be no borrowers, as interest rates will have declined to the point
where the gold carry trade is uneconomic. With no gold carry, the
POG becomes unfettered, and rises ( it would anyways because lowering
interest rates is inflationary ) The shorts still default as the
POG explodes. Heads will roll in the CBs.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:51 - ID#35571)
And I agree. But it won't be good for the precious metals to have rates going down.

If you look carefully at the article you will see a number of contradictory quotes. The market wants to attract buyers. It wants to go up and will look for any excuse to do so.

The economy being good is interpreted to be bullish. The economy being bad is interpreted to be bullish. The economy going to move sideways is interpreted to be bullish.

By this criteria a coming depression would be a signal to buy everything in sight.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:51 - ID#284255)
America Continues Under "National Emergency"
The Executive Order Of ALL Executive Orders

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:53 - ID#210127)
Lotsa talk....but

I find things very much ASB!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 08:58 - ID#411440)
@ xanadu: What is ASB etc?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:03 - ID#210127)'s a takeoff

on ANOTHER'S "Not as Before" NABF...ASB IS "as before"...but hey...silver is breaking out on the that could result in a NASB...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:04 - ID#284255)
Interesting articles - Seed Terminator?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:08 - ID#354133)
Golden diamonds
Trading the last thing on my mind while I was hiking on the reservation I affectionately call my back yard. I was about a quarter mile into it, making good speed when I heard a sound that every hiker dreads - a plastic rattling sound. YIKES! I did the rattle snake dance-scurry-shuffle as well as I could. The scary part was that it was behind me when I heard it - I had already stepped over the #@*^%#$#% snake! I realized how extremely lucky I was not to have stepped ON him. My nerves were so "rattled" that I shot at him nine times and missed ( 'course the first few shots were at a respectful distance. ) Had to reload the .22 twice before I finally got him. He must've been as petrified as I was since he didn't try real hard to get away... ( Normally I would have let him go, but this was within slithering distance to my house... And those critters do grow rapidly in this neck of the woods... ) Next jaunt in the woods, I'll carry the old "Thunder Five" ( 5 shot .410 pistol ) instead of that piddly .22. I was amazed at how long the headless body reflexed afterwards..

Hmmmm.... on second look, there are a lot of "morals" to the above story. That exercise is left to the students.

Anyone need any snake leather? Really pretty - golden diamonds.

Go gold...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:19 - ID#411440)
@ xanadu: Thanks. Yes, I noticed that silver had lurched above
its 50 day moving average and was last seen staggering through $5.43.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:22 - ID#235295)
Infrequent poster...but I have some time this morning so I thought I'd add my "two-cents worth." Can't believe markets are this high! It seems so incongruous...where are the earnings? What about the trade imbalance? To my way of thinking, AG,RR, et al. are doing everything in their almighty power to keep the markets propped up! But like anything that is artificially kept high, the collapse, when it occurs ( and it will occur ) ,will be a DISASTER.

Forget your pension funds ( probably worth at most about a third of what they are now ( after the economic collapse ) . Cash will be king...those
who have it.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:25 - ID#242325)
POG and interest rates
Gollum: You have it wrong re: interest rates and gold prices. Declining LONG TERM rates are indeed bearish for POG. But lower SHORT TERM rares are very bullish. Makes the gold carry trade less lucrative and tends to stimulate the economy, hike inflationary pressures, and weaken the dollar.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:28 - ID#201238)
Gunrunner - in my search for gold I have had many similar experiences. The first one I stepped over the critter just like you did, but my reaction was to us my geologist's pick to beat it in half, then stomp the still biting head into oblivion with my boots. Not a wise action, just raw nerves responding. I sympathize with you.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:28 - ID#147201)
gunrunner snake
Any time you get rattlers, if you skin it, put the meat in the freezer and let me know. I love rattlesnake meat . Thank god for the kids, they are scarce around here. Many thanx, Charlie

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:32 - ID#147201)
gunrunner snake
Any time you get rattlers, if you skin it, put the meat in the freezer and let me know. I love rattlesnake meat . Thank god for the kids, they are scarce around here. Many thanx, Charlie

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:33 - ID#42039)
RHODY:lease rates
Interesting point of view but humbly I wonder if we can compare
paper and physical output.Amount of consumption has definitively gone But paper is paper and lack of gold paper will be compensated like in a clearing room :between CB and bullion dealers ( bankrupted on purpose !like this they will avoid final gold delivery ) .
Then This certainly will affect the spot market. On the contrary now and on purpose pressures on the spot market are translated to the goldlease market.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:41 - ID#35571)
In thinking of interesting uses for precious metals one of the more
arcane ones would be for silver being used in the superconducting
"mirrors" for extraterrestrial spacecraft :- )
I shall elucidate in an oversimplified way.
Basically the idea is that if one generates an EMP from a coil placed
some distance from a superconducting plate the pulse generates eddy
currents which push upon the plate. The eddy currents create thier own
EMP which propagtes back toward the coil and give rise to the "equal and
opposite reaction" of classical physics sometime later.
Unless, of course, one has removed the coil in the meantime ( or
effcitvely removed it by use of a high speed switch ) . In this case the
EMP goes off into space looking for something to apply the reactive
force to ( remember the fourth law of motion? ) .
The result is thrust withought expulsion of mass.
One of course requires a pretty good power source.
It is intereting to think about the effects of being near such an
elecromotively driven craft.
With a coil/mirror spacing of one meter the switching frequency is
on the order of 150 Mhz. The strong 150 Mhz field would be disabling
to the electrical systems of any car or plane the craft drew near. Of
course if one stood too near it would be akin to standing in front of
a radar antenna or microwave oven with the door open and the safety
interlocks removed. One could get cooked!
In order to manage high current switching and still keep weight down
it is desireable to use superconducting materials and this tends to
create a demand for silver for several reasons as well as gold for it's
thermodynamic properties.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:52 - ID#28861)
I agree with Old Gold that lower short term rates are bullish for inflation and gold. Lower rates will help Japan by making the yen/dollar carry trade less lucrative. That also should be bullish for the metals. It's all rumor and speculation now.... back to work...


(Mon Jul 20 1998 09:52 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: I agree that dropping interest rates tend to draw money
into general equities, but it also turns off the gold carry, and feeds
inflation. Except for the gold carry pressure, the gold market is
in deficit supply. Dropping interest rates also reduces the holding
costs of gold. Between Aug. 1991 and Nov. 1994, the prime rate was lower than it is now, yet gold was priced between $340 and 375. The
$340 bottom did roughly coincide with the bottom of prime lending rates
between these dates.

Gold at 295 is really an indication of the drop in Asian demand, and
the strength in the US$. But the drop in interest rates should lower
the US dollar, and that should be positive for the POG, assuming all
other interest rates stay the same or rise. Dropping rates also turns
off the gold carry, and I think that this insidious mechanism is the
most important factor in generating an artificially low POG, and
ultimately creating an explosive price rise. My reasoning is as

1. Gold is within 1.75% of its bottom ( $288 )
2. Prime is at 5.66%, so forward rates are 4.65%
3. So the gold carry is 4.65% plus 1.75% less commissions
of about 6.4% assuming that shorting is at 294 and buyback is
possible at 288.

The point is, lease rates indicate ( by being low ) that a maximum
6.4% margin is insufficient to finance the gold carry and inducing
leased short-selling. If this margin is insufficient now, dropping
interest rates makes it even less likely that the gold carry will
continue, unless the CBs drop their lease rates to zero. Then the
game is truly over. This would be as likely as the Fed dropping
their interest rates to zero. Then we would know that no amount of
inflationary pump priming was going to head off a depression.

With lease rates at 1%, we really are at the limits of the Cbs
capacity to depress the POG, and the Fed dropping the Prime, puts
the CBs control efforts in even worse shape. Gold is in deficit
supply. Lease rates are the only thing holding it down ( apart
from the strength of the dollar ) .

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:04 - ID#426220)

Dow reaches critical turning point Breaks out to new high, but for how long? That is market maven, Clif Droke's $64,000 Question!

The question, of course, is how much higher can the Dow go
before reversing? Ultimately, we don't know and won't venture
a guess. In a more "normal" market, we could estimate the
approximate target point of a fifth wave using Fibonacci
calculations, especially those developed by trader Robert
Fischer ( which we have found to be incredibly accurate at
times ) . But at the tail-end of a raging, once-in-a-lifetime stock
market bubble, reason and rationality are thrown out the
window and conventional technical tools for measuring the
market prove inconsistent and often unreliable.

Analyst Droke unequivocally asserts "NASDAQ is in the blowoff stage of its bull market."

We see this as a "bearish divergence," so to speak, and a precursor of the bearish times to come.

Full report at following URL. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" of the URL, before posting it to the Internet:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:05 - ID#35571)
And I agree that lower rates are inflationary in the long run and hence bullish for gold. In the short run however they tend to be bearish.

One must differntiate between lower rates and the anticipation of lower rates. If one anticipates rates will be moving lower one wants to be in bonds and stocks. This is bullish for bonds and bearish for gold.

If rates have already moved lower, especially if one anticipates no further lowering, one wants to take thier profits and move back out of bonds. This is bearish for the dollar ( inflation as dollars come back into the market from debt instruments being cashed out and flight captial
going back home ) and bullish for gold.

Since lower rates being anticipated it is currently bearish, but eventually....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:10 - ID#246224)
Do any Monex customers have the 800# handy? TIA

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:14 - ID#411259)
..... Snakes are Easy .....

Gunrunner -

Regarding snakes:

Best to just stomp their brains in
Guns are messy and way too noisy
Lets the world know you are shooting off
Best to let them strike, I say
Then when extended and at their weakest
Reach out, grab the head, and snap the neck
Thats the way we deal with snakes on the West coast
Good luck in your future trail travels
But snakes are everywhere


(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:18 - ID#212197)
@rhody: Is Gold already "cornered"?
Following your explanations, for which Ted Butler's essays ( published on gold-eagel digest ) are a good support, the CBs have cornered themselves with their gold-lease strategy.
Which basically means that there is no physical stuff anymore available in the very near future.

I hope you and Ted Butler are right. This theory depends on the assumption that the CB lease means physical removal of gold from the CBs to the leasor. And then, after the leasor got it, sells what he/she doesn't own. And with the proceeds buys T-bills ( or finances short selling in the hope to depress the market further in order to be able to buy back the physical stuff at a cheaper price. ) Now, when this hope doesn't come true, the gold cannot be bought back and the CB doesn't get it back and the whole game comes to an end.

Is the assumption valid that 8,000 tonn of gold are in the fire now? I would be very impressed if the market could swallow such an enomous quantity without dropping further. Maybe a certain portion of this gold was given back to the CBs and only part of it is in the fire right now?

Let's observe what the market will tell us. Maybe, we see already the signs of a cornered silver market?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:23 - ID#373284)
Auric, Namaste' thanks for the tip
on the NY Times article...picking up the paper later this afternoon...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:26 - ID#287129)
Y2K discussed on NBC's Today Show
NBC had an interesting discussion on the Y2K problem on TODAY. That program should have been enough to wake up skeptics...and I'm speaking as someone who has formerly believed that the Y2K problem was blown out of proportion. Here are the highlights:

Congressman Horn started raising awareness in April of 1996. He has graded government agencies on their progress towards fixing the problem, and has given many federal agencies an "F" in progress thus far. He said that the FAA ( who previously got an "F" rating ) has turned it around recently, and he would be willing to fly on 2/1/00. He claims that the Social Security people started fixing the problem in 1989, and he gave them an A+. He called them the Pacesetter for the government. However, he claimed that many top government agencies are "a basket case."

Someone from the Deutsche Securities claimed that the Y2K will have worldwide economic implications. He said that the US is farther ahead of the rest of the world in fixing the Y2K bug; but that we are now a GLOBAL COMMUNITY, so systems will impact others around the world. He predicts a worldwide recession after 1/1/00. When asked by the TV host whether some are being alarmists, he said that we cannot sound the alarm loud enough.

My previous skepticism about the magnitude of the Y2K problem has been gradually changing to one of concern...

I'm certain that millions of people saw this program today. I wonder what the implications might be for gold and other PM's???


(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:26 - ID#354133)
Plat moving down?
Chas - Will do. But I'm hoping that I don't find another one anytime soon!
Arden - Next time I will have boots/jeans instead of sneakers and shorts. BTW, what is "moment656"?
Rhody - Speaking of a tax "holiday" - the state of Florida is offering this really great deal ( sarcasm intended ) : A no sales-tax week. Because the state coffers have an unusual surplus this year, the Guvnuh and Legislature felt obligated to "reward" its constituents somehow. Various proposals were offered up. Since there is no state income tax, most of the revenue generated is through property taxes and sales taxes. Instead of giving the property owners any sort of break, they decided to give "everybody" a "rebate" - in the form of a "tax-free week" in August '98 for clothing and apparel purchases under $50. Get real! Of course, this is the same Democrapic Guvnuh who advocated an "assault rifle" ban. until he was informed that his Ruger Mini-14 was on the list. When told of this fact he responded to the effect "Really? But it's such a little gun"

I wonder if machine gun belts and holsters are considered "apparel"?

EB - Who was offering the deal on the silver eagles? I've been looking for some of those myself.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:28 - ID#266105)
@down under

Nick@C ( 20,000,000 shares ... ) ID#386245:
have been bought/sold in the past two days


Rumor over on Hotcopper is that Mercury Asset
Mgmt. is unloading their Laverton position. I
bought some last month on the VSE where it hasn't
traded since though I see it trades a bit on the
ASX, recently quite a bit.

Say mate, you got a site where one can track
Aussie jr. news releases, ASX releases, earnings
reports, etc. Not munched in the bookmark file
tragedy that is : )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:29 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: Yes, I understand. A discussion of the impact of
interest rates on the POG, depends upon defining the time frame,
otherwise the discussion is at cross purposes even though the
parties are fundamentally in agreement.

Perhaps we should dwell more on how long the decline in short
term rates is likely to continue, and when the Fed will jack
up rates in order to control the ineviteble inflationary surge.

My guess, is the drop in interest rates will not be for long,
as the American general equities market is going to tank just
based on fundamentals, and when people cash out of stocks, there
is going to be a lot of cash coming into the consumer market.
So we will have a short term easing of rates to attempt a soft
landing for the economy, but higher rates loom in the near term
( early 1999 ) to control inflation. IMHO

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:34 - ID#287129)
The MONEX number ( as per your request ) is: 1-800-949-GOLD. ( Note: I am not an employee of Monex. )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:48 - ID#57232)
EMP, interest rates and gold price
Gollum: I will need to think about your EMP 'drive'. The best demonstration of what you describe is a little lab demo of what one can do with an Aluminum disc ( conductor ) and a magnetic coil. If you suddenly apply a high current load to the coil, and the aluminum disc is sitting above the coil, you can make that disc shoot up into the air several feet. If the aluminum disc is replaced with one of those high temp superconductors ( with self-contained cooling ) you have an impulse gun with nearly 100% efficiency. The idea of removing the pulse generator so that the eddy currents act at a distance on something else is an interesting idea -- but the success depends on what the electromagnetic pulse acts on. Would the sun be a good choice as a target conductor? Don't know. A space drive would need a focused electromagnetic energy pulse at energy levels far beyond our current capability, I would think. Even with thermonuclear fusion -- unless it worked like project Orion, I think it was called. Freeman Dyson and others came up with that prototype years ago. The intense radioactivity of the drive shelved it.
Speaking of EMP's, I think we all may have the opportunity to experience naturally created ones in the next 12-24 months. Any metal object acts like an antenna -- the larger surface area, the more effective. So if we have some major solar flares, the electromagnetic radiation -- which goes up into radio frequencies -- commuciations networks and electrial utility systems are most likely to get zapped. There is another item not talked about, but which is a very real possibility. And, that is the electron flux from a major solar flare ionizes the earths atmosphere, and heats it up. This might be sufficient for major weather modification. Just like those beam energy weapons talked about in the Star Wars program, or the HAARP project. But mother nature is still far more potent than we are. I wish I knew what would happen to the weather during a major solar flare, but it could be highly significant. For example, it might drive the frequency of worldwide thunderstorms way up. Interesting times, as they say.
With regard to interest rates, the relation to gold can be complicated. If interest rates rise in 'anticipation' of rising inflation, gold goes down, because everyone guesses that the FED is nipping inflation in the bud. But, if interest rates go down -- because the FED is worried about a recession ( or worse ) , then the price of gold tends to go up. But, the times must be perceived as inflationary. That was true in 1993, but the current perception of inflation may not be full-blown until the commodity price indices start to rise. Looks like that may be sooner rather than later, given the crop disasters in Texas. Seems like the rolling droughts, heat waves and fires that began in SE Asia are finally on our shores. Wonder if the economic effects will be similar, too. Just delayed perhaps. All depends on the relative weakness of our economic system.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:52 - ID#26467)
FWIW After this slide Nov '99 are a super buy and a low in the
time cycle this week.Patience pays off have a nice day.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:53 - ID#426220)
The Coming Bull Market in Gold by Richard Pomboy

One the world's leading gold experts and precious metals stocks portfolio manager tells why he is so bullish on the yellow metal.

Mr. Pomboy is the globally acclaimed portfolio manager of Pomboy Captial - a closed end investment trust for the extremely wealthy ( you cannot get in unless you have at least $1,000,000 to invest ) .

He aptly highlights the growing deficit between annual physical demand and mine supply of the noble metal. The production shortfall will increase from 900 tonnes in 1996 to more than 1,500 tonnes by the turn of the century ( please be aware this does NOT take into account any explosive demand which well might materialize in next year due to growing panic of the looming Y2K problem ) .

One fundamental reason Mr. Pomboy cites for the expanding gold deficit is the following. "Producers cannot replace their reserves in line with production. The industry needs to find 100 million ounces per year which is about equal to the total reserves of Barrick, Newmont and Homestake." He also talks about the other cardinal factors affecting production deficits.

In his estimation China is the wildcard in the gold equation. Latent demand by a behemoth population - which has always had a cultural affinity toward the shiny metal - may well explode demand, and subsequently prices in the near future.

Mr. Pomboy's Internet Thesis contains startling data never revealed before on the Internet - the following for example:

"In fact in 1996, 19 central banks bought gold while 16 sold - and of the 16 who sold, only 5 sold 10 tonnes or more. Furthermore, over the past decade, over 70% of all central bank sales came from just three central banks: Belgium, Netherlands and Canada. That means that all the other central banks combined sold only a minor amount of gold each year. Nevertheless, there is a perception and some reality to the concept that many central banks are "mobilizing" their reserves."

Full report at following URL. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" of the URL, before posting it to the Internet:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:55 - ID#35571)
In my opinion the length of time that interest rates continue to lower once they get started will depend entirely upon how successful the Fed is in achieving a soft landing.

If they wait too long to lower rates, the economy will continue to decline into recession/depression even as they continually lower rates trying to recover. Bear market conditions generally last for perhaps a year and a half or so ( maybe half as long as a bull market ) . Our bull market in equites has been longer than most so it is entirely possible the ensueing bear market could be longer that usual.

On the other hand if they achieve a soft landing, the year y2k thing turns out to be nothing, and the Euro's birthing pangs do not overly disrupt the markets, then the lowering of rates could be a short term thing as you suggest.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:56 - ID#244219)
Silver Standard
Does anybody have any information as to why Silver Standard has taken the beating it has in the last month? I bought at $3 at the beginning of June, and its at 1 1/4 now? Have they just fallen out of favor, or is there some bad news that I don't know about?



(Mon Jul 20 1998 10:58 - ID#411440)
@ ALBERICH: there really is no way to estimate the present short
overhang in gold created by the gold carry trade. I have accepted the
the figures supplied by the World Gold Council at 8000 tonnes.
if this is true, 25% of CB reserves are hanging around fingers and
necks from here to China, and all the CBs have to show for it is
pieces of paper. All we can do is look at indirect evidence:

1 ) Present actual gold sales by CBs are at half the rates of the
past three years.

2 ) Lease rates are hovering just above 1% for one month gold and
this suggests low demand for CB gold.

The first point suggests that dishoarding by CBs is close to ending.
The second point suggests that speculative shorts believe that
shorting gold at these prices is uneconomic, if not dangerous.
It would be considered uneconomic if the market believed that
prime rates in the US are about to decline, yet lease rates are
obviously within a quarter point of bottom. If prime rates are
coming down, the decline in the US dollar would further ravage the profit
margins of the gold carry, and gold would spike, eliminating the
short margin ( 1.75% ) If this doesn't sound dangerous, then
perhaps the speculators know there is an 8000 tonne short overhang,
and are backing off.

Actually, I think everybody on both sides of this mess ( leasers and
leasees ) were ignorant of the scope of the overhang. How could they
be knowledgeable? Does every CB publish the extent of their leased
gold? Do the funds tell each other how much their short exposure is?
In a war, ( and I think we are in a financial war ) such figures would
be top secret. So we wait, and we suspect, but we cannot know,
until the POG pops. But I think lease rates will give you warning.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:03 - ID#35571)
Once the impulse has been applied to the "mirror" we no longer care where ( or when ) the target reaction occurs ( so long as it doesn't act on our own craft of course ) . In like manner in a standard rocket motor once the exhaust gas has left the nozzle we no longer care about where it goes.

In actual practice one uses a switched high Q circuit. One also needs to alternate the current direction so that every other pulse kills the still flowing eddy currents from the preceeding one ( like I said I over simplified ) . With sufficiently high Q energy needs are modest.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:03 - ID#354133)
Are Jay
Um Great "advice"!?!?! But I prefer the "reach out and touch" method. As Bette Midler would say "from a distance" One needs, however, to distinguish "good" snakes from "bad" ones, eh? 'Course, as Mom always said "Ain't no such thang as a good snake, 'ceptin maybe a dead one" I have to disagree with her - even the bad ones eat rats.

I thot you were Army Intel but you talk like a Ranger

Things have been stranger.

:- )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:10 - ID#348286)
@vronsky - Interesting Comments
"Furthermore, over the past decade, over 70% of all central bank sales came from just three central banks: Belgium, Netherlands and Canada."

I would just like to forcus on cANADA, unfortunately where I happen to live.
These ruling idiots here have a socialist/liberal agenda, and politican correctness reigns supreme. I guess holding some of your countries stored wealth in Gold is politically incorrect.
Anyway, we border with the US and have a huge market to sell our goods to, and yet the cANADIAN dollar is plunging in value, at a time when it should also be a safe haven currency.
The politicain liars have managed to plunder the wealth of the population, and are now using the pretext of the Asian crissis as the cause of cANADA'S woes.
Only a few inteligent people have not fallen for this B.S.
Gold in cANADA may yet be the best way to preserve your wealth in the comming years.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:15 - ID#187109)
Eastern Numismatics 800.835.0008 I saw the ad in IBD. It said 20 min/max at 6.95 each plus s/h. I asked if it was an OK deal and NOONE replied to me. I didn't care.....they were purty. said two days only, but I've seen the ad before so I imagine they can do the same deal now. grind

go gold.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:19 - ID#408228)
RE: Gold leases, rhody &Alberich
I posted the following a few days ago to zero comment; am I totally off base???

I am intrigued by the comments today regarding the Gold lease rate, and I wanted to posit a possible reason for low lease rates. Up front, I want the community to know that I know nothing other than what I read in the news, so this is purely speculation on my part.

The price of oil is very low now, and it has been reported that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers are short of cash. If you were the Saudis, or ANOTHER oil producer, who remains a true believer in Gold, but who nonetheless has a pressing cash-flow problem, would it not make sense to lend gold to a reliable counter-party to receive cash. The transaction would include the understanding that the gold would be repurchased at a future date at a 2 % +/- premium per year. This would have the benefit for the lender of providing needed liquidity and anonymity, while still keeping the exposure to a believed-in long term investment. After all, leases are essentially a repo transaction in gold, rather than bonds.

A second benefit is that an affected government would not need to publicly borrow from a very skittish international lending community at rates of LIBOR + 75bp ( if available ) , and in the process advertise to the world that they are a little tight for cash.

If this is the case, it strikes me as likely that the cash needs of the oil producers might well dwarf the inventory finance needs of the trade. A continuation of the financial pressures in the world might lead to backwardation, or perhaps completely flat forward prices in the gold market, rather than the normal contango market that we are accustomed to. It also implies that the lender needs the physical gold supply less than he needs cash now. This could also apply to silver if the Saudis are involved, since they participated with the Hunts.

ted butler__A
(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:19 - ID#317184) your 8:33..silver COT
The commercials are the market makers. They are the reciprocal to whatever the large specs and small traders net position is in every market. They are short silverand have always been ( at varying degrees ) because the other side has always been net long combined. The large spec category has been net short on rare occasions in the past, but not enough to overcome the small traders always net long position. That's the simple answer.

What's interesting now is that there appears to be a giant long position in the large spec category ( 20-30 K contracts ) for the past year or so that is not technical in nature, i.e., that just sits there regardless of price movement.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:20 - ID#411259)
..... Gunrunner .....

Phase I, Special Forces Training, Camp McCall, North Carolina, middle of the winter. Learned to escape, evade, survive, resist, and get home to use the information gathered to destroy the enemy ( Green Berets talk like that ) . I did not wear the beret, nor did I wear jump boots with my Dress Greens, that was for those that liked that sort of thing. Attached to Psyop with the 5th and 7th Special Forces Groups, I learned well those things that insure survival.

And you thought I had and desk job?


(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:22 - ID#411440)
@ JJ: the market is down on pms of late, particularly silver as
it has failed to live up to the W Buffett hype. Does Silver Standard
have any Russian properties? Bema Gold, Pan American and others have
taken a beating on investments in Russia.

You should have patience. The powers that be are perfectly capable of
manipulating the price of stocks and commodities downward just before
they spike. How about this? If you know silver is going to blow,
in a few months, short sell it in the near term, knowing that
a 1% drop in silver prices means a 4-5% drop in silver mining stocks.
You then buy the stock, and may make a profit on the short sale too.
Even if your short doesn't generate a profit, you have still driven
down the share prices of the highly leveraged mining shares.
The rumor mill has been active against silver too. I find this
bullish in the long term.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:27 - ID#57232)
Y2k and the FED
sharefin: Great post. It is quite clear to me now that the small and medium sized banks will probably be y2k compliant. All one needs to do is observe the tendency of these firms to buy PC-based or RISC type computers and related software. Any successful, efficient small/medium sized bank will almost automatically be y2k compliant.
But, what about the goliaths such as the Bank of America? Or the FED itself? Any system that works on the old IBM mainframes will not be y2k compliant, software and hardware included, without alot of work or a complete upgrade. The solution to me is to decentralize, and use something like an intranet to resolve problems. But we know how inefficient large organizations are, and their natural resistance to change. The worst culprits of all are Federal institutions. If you want to change something, and you are used to working in the private sector, the red tape can drive you to distraction.
So Mr. Barron has pronounced that the FED can 'address any y2k issue', and left for another job. 'Address y2k issue' just means that the FED is aware of the problem, not that they have done anything about it. Clever. Just exactly what I would say and do if I thought there was no way the problem could be fixed before the system crashes. I would certainly want to discretely step out of the way before being run over by the y2k steamroller.
sharefin: My take on all of this is the current FED solution to the y2k issue is to print ( and hoard ) as much paper money as possible. One thing I have learned over the years - especially from Gary North's newsletters -- is that you can learn alot from the actions of the Federal Government. The Government tends to distort the economic system to serve their own interests. Very often the end result is a severe disruption of some kind, and many people are hurt in the process, all due to some naive policy. Communist governments are by far the worst at this. What you need to do to protect yourself is to understand the policy, and anticipate the commotion that will follow. Gary North does that very well. At the very least, we need to follow the FED y2k gurus very carefully -- and try to figure out what has been done, and what has not been done.
Regardless of what will happen, the weakest part of the system will be the equity and currency markets, I think, even if y2k related troubles in the financial system is the trigger. That will be our barometer of trouble ahead, even if the financial system appears to be working.
Hope all is well for you. Got cash, as well as precious metals?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:38 - ID#284255)
2BR02B - try these
Mining and Petroleum Info Page.
A little goldmine.

With the implementation of Executive Order #13083, the spectrum of President Clinton serving more terms in office is real
Have a look at the site map option.
Paydirt Online

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:41 - ID#57232)
Is the FED rushing to extinction?
sharefin, all: Just imagine a world where the only solution to the Y2K problem is physical paper dollars. We would no longer have the monetary 'velocity' to supercharge the economy. The 'fiat' currency system of the FED would be a thing of the past. So would our economy.
So -- if the FED does not address the y2k issue effectively, they are history. And, just when there are rumors about a national ID card.
Looks like we may be moving toward a currency based of a firm 'Gold' standard a bit earlier than we thought.
I have no doubt Alan Greenspan understands all of the above very well. It will be interesting to see what he says and does. I doubt he will want to see the FED collapse on his watch. My guess is that the financial dealings of the future will be modeled after the modern internet, with multiple distributed processors. Much harder to disrupt than the older systems. Failures just slow it down, and are less likely to crash it. All that needs to be done is set up firm rules of exchange on the net ( or intranet ) so that what ever currency is used is firmly linked to some fixed asset. The traditional Gold Standard for this has been Gold.

Spud Master
(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:42 - ID#28586)
@Gunnrunner, chas & Arden, snake killing & Hanta virus...
Guys, the bleedn'n snake was just minding his own business, trying to make a living when you blew it away.

Now, the next time you have an outbreak of Hanta virus due to proliferation of rodents, because there were no rattlesnakes to keep the population down, you can thank yourselves!

Save your extirpation activities for the real *snakes* -- those in the D.C. Beltway, who would be slave masters of us all.

Spud, "don't tread on me", 1776 Now!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:43 - ID#411440)
@ RLubman: What you are describing is a secret sale, not a lease.
1. If more than 2 people know about a secret, it's no longer a secret.

2. Leases are for a percent gold. No entity lends gold for paper at
1 or 2% interest. You would get killed on the exchange fluctuations
unless you charged far more interest in paper. Even the US$ is
estimated to be 20 to 30% overvalued.

3. Gold is an end game transaction, not something one deals as a
short term solution to cash flow imbalances.

I'm no economist either, but for what it's worth, there's my

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:46 - ID#147201)
Spud master snakes
That was really good. I don't eat many because I can't find many, but black snakes around here are "protected". They run off poisonous snakes. I guess that's why I don't see many rattlers. Thanx for the perspective, Charlie

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:48 - ID#35571)
Maybe he just wants to emulate the greats. After all, Lincoln and Kennedy among others were president for life.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 11:49 - ID#408228)
Resp. to rhody
The transaction is a repo, which is how virtually every government bond dealer finances his inventory, as a secured loan.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:01 - ID#284255)
I personally think that they are in far worse condition than they let on to.
There has been to many retractions of late, ie. banks not allowed to disclose, Gov't dept's to report 1/4 as often, etc.

Sure they can take any remedial action that they want but the facts seem to be that they have left it too late.
It's too big, there's too much, and the date is too soon.

I only hope that I am wrong, but recent news shows that the problem is far greater than previously thought.
There is more concern in the air, plus the press.
There is too much global interconnectivity, that is going to be catapaulted into isolationism and will end up fragmenting the supply chain we all know.

My concern is still growing.
Months earlier I rated it at 5 out of 10.
Then month by month the numbers are slipping.
I'd have to rate it at 8.5 to 9 at the moment.
It's not getting any better at all - news-wise.

Personally, both of my PC's have different Y2k problems.
All my charting packages ( 7 ) have problems.
And lots of other software the same.
Almost enough to bug a guy.

Soon I will be cashed up and will be stuck into physical.
Auction of home, "Freshwater Cottage" on 8th August.
I would rather have physical than own property.
At least for a few years.
Then gold can go throiugh the roof. ha ha ha.

Middle of winter here and I'm sweating at 2am.
Temperatures 10 deg Cent. above normal.
Temp probably around 23 deg C. instead of 13 deg C.

El Nino - La Nina - something is way out of kilter.
We are having Northerly winds which never occur here till Nov.

What's going on???

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:12 - ID#253246)
JJ ****************Silver Standard

Sillver Standard is going to find it difficult to raise cash with only 150
million oz of reserves. There were private placements earlier in
the year that paid around $5 a share. That's a real haircut if you
bought $5 million worth. If they issue more shares it will only dilute
the value more.

Teck was the largest shareholder and probably sold a large number
of shares for the price to slip to $1.25. Maybe Quartermain should
step aside.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:16 - ID#410198) out for bait and switch.....they don't want to sell US Silver Eagles,its refered to as a
lost leader add.....carefull out there

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:18 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' I rate it 14 out of ten...Y2K will be the single largest man made
disaster in history. The Coward Erects grab for power will be impotent as the federal government will freeze up...local populations will force local I have stated many times before I think we may get to a point where people will fear for their lives if they mention that they work for the federal government.

As to the soldiers...hmmmmmmmmm...I guess none of them will be thinking who is taking care of MY family and they will gleefully take orders from the Cronie in Chief...NOT...they despise WJC...

If the Coward Erect tries to bring foreign troops onto American soil there will be a bloody civil war in these dis-united states...each state grouping region of the USA thinks differently and will act accordingly.

I think the best thing to do is to be prepared to be away from populated areas...when the power grid goes and the food supply is wracked with major disruptions being anywhere near a populace area will be like a death sentence...

Gold, silver and platinum along with other barter items will reign supreme as the US dollar will be a worthless piece of what if they fix all the computers on wall st., Y2K will turn NYC into Beirut, I could not agree more with Ed Yourdon on that one...

The face of the globe will change...count on it...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:22 - ID#28994)
Mo Re Go Ltd.
Read....Peter Cook ( worldview ) Commentary, page B2 Globe and Mail

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:27 - ID#287186)
Anyone - Are there any current ads out there for Silver Maple Leafs
From the bait and switch bunch.
I don't mind taking their bait.
I shall order 20 or up to 50 today or tomorrow.
If so please drop me a note here or at

I'll consider Silver Eagles too.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:29 - ID#316256)
You mentioned the national I.D. Well I got my new drivers license the other day, told them I didn't want my SSN on it. They said no problem. When I got it, it had a magnetic strip and a big ugly bar code on the back. I asked if my SSN was inbedded in the magnetic strip and bar code. They got indignent. I took BIG magnet to magnetic strip and emery cloth to bar code : )

P.S. Could you give more detail on the aluminum disk experiment you mentioned.

Thanks in advance,
Got Gold???

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:30 - ID#284255)
If they lose control of E-money they have lost the game.
I read where if they lost the trading markets for 8 working days,
The derivatives markets would self-implode due to liquidity failures.
As you say there's not enough paper cash.
They would need 10-100 times as much if the system is put under pressure.
If the market tanks they will have a liquidity crisis.

Shame on Bill for not being as great as those who went before.
He has already done so much damage and looks to do more...
Typical pollie of the 20th century.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:39 - ID#207145)
The next move in intrest rates is up.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:40 - ID#252391)
Stillwater Earnings and silver
Stillwater ( SWC ) reported 2nd quarter earnings today. Stillwater ( SWC ) has gotto be the best performing precious metal stock in the universe, out side some ssmall junior that discover gold under its pillow last night that I and 99% of other investors have not heard of. SWC made money and it did it dispite the genius action of somebody in the company's past who thought it would be a great idea to sell almost two years' of the company's production of PD at $135 per oz. He apparently was paid while on the job.

If the company hadn't had that hedge to contend with which will be over this year, the company would have made 50 cents this last quarter . . . if...

Watch for this one to keep on tracking - currently at 29 1/4 around all time highs. If only my SSC would do so well.

Totaln. am

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:42 - ID#252391)
SWC earnings report

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:42 - ID#284255)
Bonfire for the Constitution
These are the orders that can suspend your y2k survival plans.
Now I'll have to paint faster.
I'll need more gold sooner for a 14.

It's enough to drive a man to prose.

Folly, Frenzy and Fear, those Careless are
The fates that mould our destinies, and shape
The grave dishonesties, deceits, that mar
Our work, our very loves, our art
Stir the dark anxieties, the mortal pains
The dark and deadly pride that stains
The living dying heart.

We mime the random measure of their art
Act out the torment of their aimless play
Suffer all things with numb unfeeling heart
The less their willful torment day by day
Or wanton, toss to waste our life in play.

Only that man,
Who steadfast stands apart
And cries his manhood, cries aloud - I AM
Will be free of such dire fates
Only thus be saved,
Be his own man.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:43 - ID#410198)
Before anyone jumps on me over bait and switch comments......I have no problem with companys using a
lost leader type add,just so long as you the buyer know that to get that deal you have to in most cases either being subject to a lengthy sales pitch on something you don't want or asked for your phone number,and yes they will call at dinner.....if you understand this and accept it lost leader adds are OK.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:46 - ID#377196)
I read your post and agree with you. No one lends gold at 1 to 2%
paper interest. I think gold loans are for gold interest of 1 to 2%
which changes things a little.

But your second observation that gold is an end game transaction
is totally true. That is why I have written so much before that I
believe that the short position of 8000 tons is only part of the
equation. There is something else going on which will neutralize
much of the short position. This is obvious to me as the POG has
not moved up.

There is an endgame in this short position which Veneroso is not
talking about. Is he saying that the central banks "lost count" on
their positions or leases? That is bull. The central banks know
exactly what they are doing and why. To think otherwise is wrong
thinking in my opinion.

Thanks, GD

P.S. I am bullish on gold but am not relying on a fabricated
short position to move the price.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:52 - ID#35571)
The next move in interest rates is sideways.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:52 - ID#57232)
EMP impulse drive
Gollum: There is one way what you are describing would work, but I think the energy requirments are still prohibitive. Even 'empty' space is not empty, but consistents of fluctuations of virtual particles. This energy density -- the so called 'Zero-point' energy has been calculated at a stupendous 1kg/cc as I recall. Now, a sufficiently intense, pulsed, shaped electromagnetic field might be able to interact with this, and drive a spacecraft. This is probably similar to the proposed 'space drive' based on the Casimir effect. Edward Teller of Hydrogen bomb fame has published on this. PNAS I believe, at least 5 years ago, or Physical Review Letters.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:57 - ID#57232)
Too Hot?
sharefin: I thought you would be picking up the effects of La Nina by now. If the effects of La Nina are delayed in SEAsia ( and Australia ) , then the likelihood of a cool winter in the US is nil. Unlikely anyway for the US to have cold winters based only on La Ninas, except in the Pacific Northwest.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 12:58 - ID#335190)
IMF Emergency Fund for Russia @ GAB = General Arrangements to Borrow (Reserves drained
IMF mulls Russian loan, reviews progress on reform

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund's board will decide Monday

IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said last week he would recommend the payment "as soon as the agreed actions of the Russian government have been taken, by legislation where necessary."

To pay its share, the IMF said it would tap into an emergency fund, the General Arrangements to Borrow, because ordinary reserves have been drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

The GAB was last used in 1978 by the United States. It allows the IMF to borrow money from contributing countries or their central banks at market rates of interest.

Chubais said the IMF's loan package had "bought Russia time" to sort out its problems, but added that the money in itself would not save the country. "We have to reform our economy," he said.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:01 - ID#354133)
Spuds - I usually let them go, but this @#$^$%&# startled the bee-jeezees out of me. Plus he was fairly close to my house ( where young children on occasion do play. ) You'd be proud of this, tho - the gnarly, old nameless cat that I allow to patrol my perimeter had dutifully captured one of the enemy alive - a black snake. After persuading No-name to drop the hapless captive, interrogation revealed it's status as a non-lethal serpent. I took the black beauty to the reservation and released him. ( I can't figure this cat out - likes to torment his prey rather than kill them .... must be ex-Green Bray... ) Gotta give this cat a name... Any ideas out there?

EB, "tanks" for the Silver Eagle tip. What's copper doing these days? Yen's up-n-down todaywhat do your charts & chicken bones say?

Squirrel, RobNoel - let me know what kind of deals you come up with ( )  TIA

Rattle snakes make me .....

The "Run - gunner"


(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:01 - ID#340344)
Oh, man, you busted my balloon. I had a dream a while back
in which Ted told me he really liked something I wrote, and
he invited me to go fishing with him if ever I was in his

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:03 - ID#373284)
sharefin, Namaste' and since it is after noon...a gulp of this fine Patron tequila to ya
for the poem...excellent...I wonder how all of the Coward Erect's bottom feeder supporters will feel when they are eating scraps during Y2K while jack's ass in the White House is eating caviar...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:05 - ID#284255)
Funny how the market is so bullish and yet a -4?

Market internals not crash hot either.
Soon this beast will roll over.

My swing chart is showing the accumulation phase finished.
Distribution now, then the next down cycle.
Is this the last thrust.
Looks like it to me.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:08 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 re 12:18
You better count on it. That's where the 10 grain coin comes in, Charlie

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:12 - ID#284255)
Tis a good one.
One gulp to you and I'm horizontal.

BSCT came public at $18, up from the initial filing price of $11. The stock closed the day at $62-3/4, a staggering gain of almost $45

Shareholder approval of a company plan to triple the number of outstanding shares lit the fire under Dell today. All the people who believe stock splits are bullish were buying. Dell's market capitalization, now around $80 billion, is 50% greater than the entire output of American farmers. I hope that little factoid can put Dell's ridiculous price in perspective.

People are pretty lathered up about Windows 98, but in the first three weeks it sold about one million copies ( at retail ) but the run rate is now 100,000 a week. Windows 95, on the other hand, sold three million copies in the first five weeks, so there is no way Windows 98 will match Windows 95. We've seen a big buying flurry at the start, but we won't see much follow-through. If this is the case, the whole tech rally may end rather abruptly--and it should, because in most cases there is no "there" there.

On another front, the trade deficit yawned once again. If you didn't know this country is the United States, but only that we were a massive debtor nation with a monster trade deficit and a lot of hot money, our macro fundamentals would look a lot like the Asian countries that blew up last year. So don't be shocked when the dollar starts to get shredded.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:13 - ID#373284)
let this load, about 90 seconds...priceless, simply priceless...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:15 - ID#35571)
No need for anything so exotic as relying on Casmir effect. One only has to realise that Lorentz forces are local and dependant neither on the past or future history of the generated field.

Normally the reactive force effects whatever gave rise to the original impulse because the scale is small relativistically speaking. But if the scale is large either because of larger coil/mirror spacing or higher switching speeds it becomes apparent that although one can argue for an equal and opposite reaction there is a time due to the finite speed with which electromagnetic forces ( which most common everyday mechanical forces are ) propagate. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, but not right away.

What amount of energy is required to hover one earth radii above the center of the earth? Hardly any or none if your feet are planted firmly on the ground. Or the same as whatever it takes to provide a one g acceleration if you want to lift your feet.

How much energy is required to keep an airplane in the air? A sailplane?
a balloon?

Energy requirements come out of inefficinecy and the need to overcome friction or to do other work. To accelerate in space one must increase
kinetic energy and this requires getting it from somewhere. But even that
depends upon the inertial reference frame. One can move or accelerate in space and require no energy at all. The moon does it continuously. So does a rock dropped from the hand. In fact it actually gains in energy.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:17 - ID#57232)
FEMA -- The Velvet Hammer
sharefin, et all: The Winds has another Web Page that nicely summarizes the exceutive orders, and shows how power would be concentrated in FEMA following a national emergency.

I look at conspiracy theory from two sides:
1 ) The genuine desire to control and add to power,
2 ) Genuine fear and desire to prepare for disaster.
Both can lead to totalitarianism. It all depends on how the people react -- sheep get ruled -- but an active participating population will limit power, and make sure ultimate power remains in the hands of the people.

Either way the most dangerous time for any Democratic country is when a disaster leads to the suspension of the normal process of checks and balances. The general population may actually want what their leaders propose, because they have been intentionally or unintentionally have been conditioned to look to national leaders for answers. George
Washington was asked if he wanted to be King. Fortunately he had the sense to say no.
If we have a time of financial/economic crisis where all normal functions of a Democratic process have to be suspended, that will be a serious crisis, indeed. Normally you do not expect this could happen in peacetime. What worries me is that the threshold for this might have been reduced, and the public might go along with it, not knowing they may have 'crossed the Rubicon'. If a totalitarian process remains in place for too long a time, going back to a time of Democracy could be difficult.
All: Just imagine what it would be like if FEMA ran everything. Frightening thought.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:30 - ID#410198)
FYI US SILVER EAGLES....if you are a dealer you can buy direct from the US Mint there dealer price
$1.25 over spot on day of delivery you have to order 10,000 units and pick it up from US treasury,most dealers will add .25c an ounce for this hassel which means someone like me a dealer to the public will add.20c per coin which means the bid on US Eagles is $1.50 over the buy is $1.70 over

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:34 - ID#333126)
ridiculous valuations on Internet companies

note the part where they say that the company lost $6.5million on revenues of $6.9million last year...

and now they're capitalised at >$1billion? sheesh....

I need another drink. a stiff one. dang. who's got the tequila? any to spare, tolerant1?

The Hermit
(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:34 - ID#372248)
@ sharefin, JTF & tolerant1
Great posts today on Y2k and FEMA. Your commentaries are always appreciated. There are many strong and troubling winds blowing in the world. It is indeed a good time to buy more GOLD!

The Hermit

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:34 - ID#57232)
Janet Reno wants probe of Starr
All: Please see Matt Drudge's latest below.

Why all the excitement -- why did Janet Reno turn against K Starr? And she is still fighting the Chinagate investigation by an independent council. Why all the commotion about the Secret Service Testifying? Why the rumor of sensitive information in Kenneth Starr's hands? Interesting.

If WJC is in trouble, why does he look so relaxed during his visit to Arkansas? Does this mean that he has made a deal with each of the Secret Service Agents? I cannot believe he could 'buy' all of them off.

Interesting times -- sure is hard to see what will happen next. If Kenneth Starr does not come out with something soon, it probably means he does not have anything significant. What was that deadline? End of July? Beginning of August?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:38 - ID#373284)
The Hermit, ravenfire, Namaste' WJC is one of the leading reasons to buy metal
uh huh...and there is always a more than generous supply of tequila here... and shot glasses for all...mugs if you prefer...

a gulp to the both of ya...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:42 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...the TRUTH about the COWARD ERECT and
the men and women that risk their lives to protect jack's ass:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:42 - ID#227238)
Need yer money???? From the bank???
All: A few moments ago my roommate called the bank and requested a cash withdrawl of $20k. She was surprised ( and dismayed ) to learn that it would require a week to secure the funds.

The reason, offered by the branch manager, was that she ordered her cash on weekly basis. On Mon mornings. Before 9 AM. ....... And since the bank doesn't open before 10 AM ...... "SOL"

Roommate says, "If she has to wait a week, she will close all accounts". ....... Totally lacking any sense of patriotism. I guess.

As an alternate, visit a trusted gold shop. Get a quote. Return to bank and receive a cashiers check to cover gold purchase. ..... and hope they are not temporarily out of blank cashiers checks.

Spud Master
(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:43 - ID#28586)
@Gunrunner re. rattleocide
OK -- fair enough. I myself have to haul two-three Black Widow spiders out of the garage each month to exile in the field across the street. I find them far better company than any politician.

Spuds, stockpiling Mr. Pibb for impending Impeachment celebration...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 13:44 - ID#373284)
here is the link so you don't have to click full text...oops...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:08 - ID#258427)

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:09 - ID#57232)
The Moon or a rock is gaining energy when it falls?
Gollum: You lost me on that last one. A falling rock is just converting potential energy into kinetic energy. You can stand on the earth without doing any work, because all forces are balanced. Likewise if you are in a ( nearly ) intertial frame in orbit. But if the relative motion of the satellite you are standing in is suddenly stopped ( without catastrophic consequences to the occupant ) you will fall directly to earth.
You are correct in the sense that virtually everything around us can be explained by electromagnetic forces, and we are mostly 'nothing' except a large collective electron cloud surrounding nearly pinpoint baryons ( protons and neutrons ) . So everything can be duplicated by the appropriate electromagnetic field ( in principle ) . The problem is: How to create that field. Again we come back to my premise -- that the energy requirements would be very high. Have you read anything from Michio Okaku's work? He is a well respected theoretical Physicist, who has discussed the theoretical possibility of 'space warps' and time travel. The problem is that shaping the energy envelope around the object that is to travel in time ( or space ) is beyond our current capability.
If you have a specific reference to a device that you are familiar with, I would be very interested.
I do know one other thing that is still controversial, and that is that gravity is probably due to a fluctuating electomagnetic field of some kind. One can nullify gravity, in principle, which is essentially the same as nullifying inertia. I can give you references on this from a respected Physics journal -- Harold Puthoff is an author, but not the principle one -- forgot the other fellow's name. Almost any push then would be sufficient to send a spacecraft across the Galaxy. This approach would be far more energy efficient than the above brute force approach. But -- no human I know knows how to do this -- yet, anyway. And unfortunately I haven't had any nonhuman visitors in prototype craft.
Here's to the future of mankind -- may we overcome our difficulties and claim our destiny in the stars. And may we be welcomed by whomever or whatever we meet.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:09 - ID#373284)
what we don't hear...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:11 - ID#286224)
Silver up ; SSC down?
What gives?


(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:16 - ID#43460)
SWC Puzzle; note to gunrunner
Here's the SWC 5 year chart. You will notice that today its at its annual high. Now considering PGM prices it may go up but considering its cyclical pattern may go down. I'm holding but not buying for now. Guess I'll need to crunch some numbers this weekend. ( %-^# )

That reminds me of a story my wife told when we lived down in rattler country. I came home from work to find she'd been out in the woods clearing brush and found a rattler. She said she'd fired 14 shots at the thing with her 9mm, missing with every single one! IMHO a hoe works better, but I'm prone to just leave them alone now, figuring I'd be embarrassed if I decapitated one and discovered afterward it was a lawyer or some other similar but protected life form. ( 8-^ ) )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:16 - ID#258427)
It's bouncing back and forth..should bounce UP though!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:22 - ID#43460)
My 2 cents about SSC. No advice, just telling a story.
Volume, volume, volume. That is the refrain to the little SSC song I sing whenever I want to buy it or sell it. I try to buy when nobody wants it and sell on days when the volume goes up. Seems to work for me although I was fooled once back in 1990 and lost some money. Lost a lot of money come to think of it.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:25 - ID#258427)
CRB UNDER 210...and falling
at 209.66...not good for gold...but Gold and Silver up...huh?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:30 - ID#269469)
Re: Earl 13:42

Note also that any cash withdrawl over some amount ( the figure 9k comes to mind ) must be reported by the bank to the feds ( I suspect any bank teller could confirm this ) . I saw a special that presented this as part of the war on ( drugs|crime ) . The same special reported that criminals often make a series of $4500 withdrawls to stay under the limit.

JTF 14:09

There is an article in Wired about creating artificial atoms ( and molecules ) using trapped electrons, reference

good stuff.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:31 - ID#35571)
The question is why should one assume a great deal of energy is required?

If one is attempting to create an intense field for some reason or another, then one might find they have to do a great deal of work against the vaccuum.

But we are creating an intense field. We are only modifying the geometry of the situation through the use of a high speed switch in the interval of time it takes an electomagnetic to travel from the generating device ( which designated as coil ) to the target ( mirror ) and a return wave to propagate back.

Consider the laboratory example. It took no prdigius amount of power to charge the capacitors to discharge through the coil and send the aluminum disk to go flying. Pretty good force for not too many joules.

If you moved the disk far enough away for someone to come in and carry the coil away before the backlash from the aluminum disk kicked back against the coil it would be the same thing ( the guy would have to be pretty quick :- ) ) .

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:35 - ID#57232)
Unusually high turnover in Secret Service Agents
tolerant1: Excellent posts! Larry Cockerell wanted to be reassigned too. There are several possibilities:
1 ) Rewards for putting up with WJC's shenigans -- how else can he encourage them to keep quiet?
2 ) Geniune disgust in being asked to procure willing ladies for him.

The answer is probably a little of each. I find this evidence of high turnover very encouraging, as it implies to me that the Secret Service agents are disillusioned. It is one thing to intimidate a member of the Arkansas State police where virtually every judge or law enforcement officer is part of the Democratic machine. Is is quite another matter to assume that the same type of approach works with a Secret Service Agent, who has gone through very rigorous training and selection. WJC has not been around long enough to alter the training process for a Secret Service Agent.
I think the next month will be crucial. If Kenneth Starr cannot find something substantial that will stick with his virtually free access to the Secret Service, then he will never find it.
And -- why does Janet Reno suddenly decide to invesigate Kenneth Starr? I am especially enheartening by this, after her total defeat in her battle with the Supreme court. Maybe she has suddenly realized that KS has actually found something. If she knew he would find some real evidence, she would not have appointed him to the special investigator role. I think even she may even be dimly realizing that she has been supporting the wrong horse, IMHO.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:37 - ID#258427)
SSC vol 440,000 change at
7/8...Silver closed strong...and the future is now up 9 cents ( and climbing ) . Go Silver...up!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:37 - ID#246224)
August Gold jumps 1.00 to 296.60 (at about 13:45 to 14:00)
Would like to see this sustained rather than beaten down again. D.A. do you have any comment? Silver gaining a few cents here and there, starting strong this week. Apparently London is seeing alot of big players moving into the Ag market right now.

Aragorn III
(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:42 - ID#212323)
Excellent text by Auric...and my follow-through (from MEMORY!)
Date: Sun Jul 19 1998 04:19
Auric ( Hoarding Laws ) ID#255151:
If they enact these laws, it would be one of the most idiotic and
criminal things this government has done. The government should be
encouraging as much self sufficiency as possible while all our systems
are intact. Families may live or die based upon such things as stored
food supply. If they pass such laws, then I will quietly and politely
ignore said laws. If they get aggressive and nasty with enforcement,
then it's time for 1776 again.

"...and accordingly, all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security." [from the Decl. of Ind.]
Yes, indeed, 1776 will be the roadmap for a right thinking individual's course of action. Perhaps I should start crafting an appropriate document in the unlikely event that the need arises.

"When in the course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands..."

got freedom?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:45 - ID#242325)
the spin
Yahoo headline today: "Wall Street Analysts See More Room for Stock Rally."

This is classic media hype and distortion. This headline would be technically correct if just two analysts were bullish or 2000 were bullish. Beware the spin.

Another on USA Gold site now saying he expects $360 soon. But nooone should forget what happened the last time he predicted a gold price rise ( into a $320-360 trading range ) . POG dropped around 20 bucks in a few weeks.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:56 - ID#246224)
It may be a bit late to consider this, but why not take the time to slowly obtain the cash rather then to put alot of pressure on the bank/branch all at one time? Rotate through the various local branches withdrawing a small amount each time. Or start accounts in several competing banks doing the same with all of them. At least this would spread the demand out over time, branches or both.

You may find that branches near Malls or shopping plazas have alot more cash on hand to supply their business customers.

The last thing you would want to do is torque up the staff or be viewed as a provocatuer of any kind. There is still time for an orderly transition into cash and PM's IMHO. You have until Septmber or a bit later.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 14:56 - ID#35571)
Not bad for a monday
Gold and silver both up at the close. Just like last Friday. This slow gain seems ever so much more solid than before. Stocks don't quite yet know what to do though.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:01 - ID#269207)
I think we had these before, infact the only one you could sell Gold to was the Government......and it wasn't all that long ago...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:14 - ID#434108)
Silver's bull-market, has been previously identified.
From 7/19/98 post, at 22:33; regarding Silver's bull market.
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:16 - ID#227238)
Allen: Yes, of course. If one doesn't mind devoting a lot of time to the effort, it could be done in small amounts.

Actually, in this case, my wife was only following a preordained procedure. She was told some time ago to call ahead ( 24 hrs ) for a large cash transaction. Surprisingly, she was informed of such at the time she wanted to cash a govt refund check for $1600.

Now the thing has escalated and she informed them, subsequently, that she intends to close the account completely. ....... and "no, a cashiers check will not be acceptable".

OTOH, if she had begun the process several months ago, as I suggested, the process would now be complete. Mostly.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:17 - ID#377196)
Farallon Res
Robert Hunter of Farallon Res. just announced that they won
their lawsuit and the Supreme Court of Vancouver threw out all claims
made by the other party. They own 100% of the Campo Morado Property
in Mexico. Good news for holders of FAN.TO.

Thanks, GD

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:19 - ID#57232)
Green Berets and Navy Seals to Train Chinese Red Berets?
All: When will this stop?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:19 - ID#432298)
re: Golden Star Resources (GSR)
Spoke with investor relations and got the scoop on the reason for the precipitous drop of 13% today. The drop was NOT due to any bad news of the company's performance, instead it was because of a large shareholder being forced to liquidate his position for legal purposes thus a downturn in share price resulted. Some positive news should be coming out soon from Golden Star Resources. I wish I had more to invest!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:23 - ID#31867)
I am sure all of us could learn at least one thing at this link...Y2K related...

Aragorn III
(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:31 - ID#212323)
Dave, I assure you, in the course of my day, week, or month, there are many things I think about...
...confiscation of gold is NOT one of them--unless someone forces the notion upon my cognitive reality. And only when I am thusly found to muse upon my individual affectation as a consequence of such proposition, I find immediate rejuvenation joining with my friend ( a Tolerant-One ) in a hearty...AHHHH Ha HA HA ha ha HA ha Ha ha HA a hhaha haa... ( gasp )

Let the powers that be ( lieve they are in control ) just TRY to take my gold. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. I do not worry about it...this is a much different world than it was in 1933. I did not walk the earth then in the very capable body that I now animate.

got power?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:47 - ID#31867)
Third of the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' and a fine shot of Patron tequila at ya...
I agree completely...there shall be no Clinfiscation in our lifetimes...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:51 - ID#434108)
Silver & SSC
I've recommended SSC many times here, most recently, this past week-end.
It's 'performance' today, is simply another piece of evidence...
of how....there is.....
a calm...
before the storm.

As I said/posted this past week-end:
silver is about to 'scream' to the upside;
and SSC will, too.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:52 - ID#31867)
a few more food related links which may interest ya...Y2K related...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:53 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about our current occupant of the White House
All: Green Berets and Navy Seals to train Chinese Red Berets? And, just a few years ago we had a confrontation on the Straits of Formosa?
My take on all of this is that our current administration considers all US assets as available for their use in any manner as they see fit, based on whatever the current political spin. With leaders like this, how could we even win a little skirmish with another country? On top of that, the Communist Chinese probably cannot believe their ears. I doubt that they would refuse, and are quietly chuckling about our odd behavior. Chinese have a strong sense of honor, as do most Orientals. It must appear that all Americans have no honor, since our leader clearly does not.
And, just where is this training to occur? The Whitehouse grounds, Langley? FBI headquarters? The Pentagon? Does the NSA have training grounds for their security officers?
As I have said before, I am all in favor of trade with the Chinese Mainland. But some limits must be put of what kind of trade, or the Communist leaders will conclude that they can do anything human rightswise, or territorially without fear of retaliation. Perhaps WJC should change his name to Neville Chamberlain.
Not that I expect that our next war will be fought with China -- I certainly hope not. The Chinese people have alot going for them. Alot of culture. But their government needs a firm, steady push toward Democracy. If not, the new world we are cultivating we will not like. WJC clearly does not understand this, or does not care.

Aragorn III
(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:55 - ID#212323)
tolerant1...I am HONORED...
that you brought out the good stuff ( Patron Anejo ) to gulp in my general direction.
Clinfiscation...that's rich. He always looks a bit odd to me without the horse's tail protruding from his forehead like it ought to be...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 15:58 - ID#269207)
@WELL, I guess I got my share,
which is all I want, but there is one thing I do know, that I will pass along to you, and that is we all have but two choices, you take your living out of your enviroment or you take it away from someone-else ..Now I understan' this lil' principle quite if I see anyone commmin, I hear this lil' bell....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:00 - ID#31867)
JTF, Namaste'
Many Americans will die because of the Coward Erect...count on it...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:06 - ID#434108)
Ann (Ayn) Rand, and blood in the streets
Have you seen the Ayn Rand/biography documentary?
It includes, like your "to a liberal friend" post does,
a good dose of focus.....
on what happens.....
when people allow their destinies....
to fall into the hands of despots.

Ayn Rand's life - escaping "old" Russia...
her persisting persistence to hold onto her convictions,
& her dreams....

the enormous, gigantic contribution she has made
to the intellectual, philosophical foundation for freedom
in a modern world gone mad, with -
statism, collectivism, socialism, paper-money, 'dollar-pegs'....
..etc. etc. ....

Sometimes I get this uneasy feeling, in moments & flashes...
when this vision appears in my mind's eye.....:

where "dollar-pegs" the...
"faithful, upstanding Chinese gov't's" 'loyal' faithful...
'obedient' 'hold' on their currency ( -is that yuan or yawn ) ...
seem to appear to remain not 'devalue'.....
as they..... remain, instead - faithful to the "dollar-peg"...

Sometimes i get this ominous image....
of a crucifixion-cross.....
( a cross constructed of artificial money & credit )
upon which is being sacrificed:
the entire fabric, freedom, faith, creative work,
and celebration of life.....
that is the innate birthright....
of human-kind.

This image....coming into focus....
reveals an on-rushing potential for human misery...
on a massive world-wide scale....
as our world's entire, earthly civilization....
of supposedly 'civilized' humanity....
apparently resigns itself..
to allowing statists, socialists, bought-off governments...
to continue to 'rule-the-day'
with 'dollar-pegs',
in a U.S. paper-dollar world ...
denominated by and dominated by....
corrupted money & credit instituions & systems
as the multitudes of humanity surrender
to 'crucufixion'
by the power-mad, corrupted few.

When the driving, shattering, shuddering reality...
of surrendering to dollar-pegs, floating-sinking,
paper currencies....finallly becomes unbearable...

The innate freedom-spirit, intelligence and passion...
of individual, freedom-loving people around the world

will no longer allow themselves to be "$-pegged"... nailed to.....
and sacrificed upon..... such a cross of
corrupted money and collectivists.

The "dollar-peg" economic & monetary world is disintegrating.

The world ruled by statist, socialist, collectivist governments,
is beginning to reap the full hell, it has so vainly sought,
in false/borrowed prosperity,
and the blinding pride of errant egoes.

Ultimately, we must all come face to face with the fact that
the world's unfolding, snow-balling...
monetary & economic crisis...
is a reflection of the
of self-government, and self-responsibility....

Ultimately, the people of the nations of the world community of
will suffer so much, that we will finally insist on
an international monetary and banking system, & institutions,
and accountable, truely-representative governments...
that are based on gold-money integrity, stability,
accountability, freedom and justice....for all.

So, the days are numbered, fewer & fewer....
upon which we continue to worship...
at the altar of the "dollar-peg" ....
in a paper-dollar, paper currency world....

The statists, colllectivists, socialists, autocrats,
special-interests, political cowards, and dictators ( etc. ) ...
will always be with us...
until humanity is ready to embrace the full,
liberating power
of it's own innate nature of, and birthright to...
freedom .
Ultimately, it is humanity's destiny...
to achieve individual self-fulfillment
in peaceful, thriving societies, based on
mutual tolerance, respect, and cooperative, creative effort...

In such an environmnet, freedom and prosperity will flourish.

Again, it is imperative to keep one's eye on the prize:
establishing a gold-based international money & credit system,
which will lay the foundation for a happier millennium to come.

It will put an end to the continued, unmerciful pounding of
'dollar-pegs', IMF interest-rate edicts, etc. ....
'pegging and & un-pegging'...... and rending the fabric
of our global economy

As paper-currencies continue to float, sink, and crumble...
one by one....
the crucifying world-economic blood-letting continues...

Will the entire world subject itself
to poverty... before it is fed up and had enough ?!

Humanity will, ultimately, come down from
this cross of spreading economic misery,
that first appeared with the "Asian Crisis",
one year ago.

Artificial money and corrupted credit systems ...
will be repudiated by the cycle of events,
if not by the re-awakening of the consciousness of humanity.

Paper dollars, and dollar-pegs, and floundering paper currencies the
world over, are the tools of the
statists, socialists & collectivist despots.

The world community of nations,
has thrown itself upon, and sacrificed itself to...
their tools & their control.

In the final analysis, and perhaps even in the final hour..
of this old millennium's unhappy, bloody chapter;
humanity will reclaim for it's own sake --
and just in time for the new millennium:

our birthright of freedom
our soul of integrity
our heart of love
our passion for beauty
our compassion for one another
our courage for fulfillment
our commitment to the sanctity of each individual human life
our creative flourishing of
and celebration in
the magnificence of all of life.

The foundation for such a humanity,
in such a world,
will be rooted in gold based money and credit.

May we each, and everyone,
find fulfillment, and peace...
in a just, monetarily-sound, prosperous, benevolent
and happy world.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego, CA

P.S. I wish to thank robnoel, & his 15:20//7/2/98,
kitco-post of "to a liberal friend" :
( Thank-you for a blood-curtling reminder,
of what happpens when a society/nation/civilization...
looks outside itself/themselves/ourselves/each-self......
for salvation/solutions/government-rescues/etc.
'Nazi socialism' in the 20th century, is one more example
of where such insanity takes us. )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:10 - ID#31867)
Heil to the Fuhrer...Heil Clintler...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:15 - ID#246224)
Aragorn III /All US citizens re:1776
As much as we all would like to think that a 1776 style 'alteration' would be of benefit we must consider the foundation of the Declaration and Constitution as the basis of any corrections. If we find that past governments have, in our opinion, challenged these basic documents then there are means to redress this via the self same documents. It is 'government by the poeple' and always will be. The Supreme Court is the vehicle to correct excesses both in the Legislative and Executive branches. Presently the Governors of the States are asailing the stupidity of the recently profered Executive Order.

It is to easy to suggest what could turn into a multifronted civil war. This should be avoided at all costs. The main problem today is not an agressive Executive branch but a lax citizenry.

'Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.'

It will ever be so. And when the people at large insist on being ruled rather than served by their elected representatives, then it will be so until they change their mind. If this nation descends into the oblivion of despotic dictatorship it will only be so because most people allowed it.

The Bill of Rights begins with an acknowledgement of God as the giver of those same rights and the Absolute Sovereign over the affairs of nations. But we are to proud to entertain such a thought. Alexander Soljenitsin ( sp ) was right when he wrote that Russia descended into the darkness of communism because "we forgot God". Our turn???

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:19 - ID#57232)
Artificial Molecules
Digger: Thanks for the article. Interesting how something that has been around a long time -- like solid state semiconductor physics - can be looked at from a different perspective. Namely, that the electron cloud distribution in a semiconductor can be considered as an artificial molecule. 'Holes' are then actually artifical positrons. But this is true -- virtually everything we see around us is due to electron clouds. All those heavy nuclei do is cancel the charge, as far as our nonradioactive world is concerned.
Digger, Gollum: This brings up a very important point where I think you ( Gollum ) and I can agree. A very powerful space drive could be built if we had the resources to duplicate ( or modify ) electronically the electrical fields of the atoms that consitute a spacecraft. This is prohibitive from a technological point of view right now if it were to be cone on an atom by atom basis. But, if we know about key resonance frequencies -- perhaps driving nonlinearly with several frequencies and benefiting with a parametric type resonance -- we might be able to nullify gravity ( or inertia ) with relatively little energy expenditure. It will be experiments such as the one Digger describes that will be necessary to elucidate the electrical nature of matter and gravity. I am still waiting to learn about that CERN experiment regarding whether free electrons or protons actually fall in a gravitational field. Perhaps only atoms do, and not elementary particles. Then there is that matter of explaining the gravitational red shift on a quantum level. I think it is a fair statement to say that very little is really known about quantum garvity.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:20 - ID#217268)
High Water Mark (again) !!!!!!!!!!!!!
According to the latest Barrons, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio was 30 ( t-h-i-r-t-y ) . This feels like a "set up" and a helluva distraction for what is happening elsewhere, IMHO.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:22 - ID#434108)
before the earthquake hits
before the earthquake hits
there are various rumbles and shudders

such as, new/recent bottoming patterns/new bull markets, in:

As the physical commodities return to new bull-markets,
the paper markets are topping out,
in preparation for their earthquake of a bear.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:25 - ID#433172)
If you wish to thrive, leave the spider alive....old european saw
Especially little black ones and of course jumping spiders. The black widow carry could be profitable.
I've camped out with rattlers ( with children ) and since there were so many coming and going I learned how to talk them into a gunny sack. It's not hard, just pretend they are psychic and tell them what to do. Promise them anything, but be sure and keep the promise. Shovels are fair for coaxing.
General principle I try to use is not to react out of fear, I did it long enough and it's amazing how many really good things went by me. It's been good for the creepy crawlies since I learned better, and good for me too.
I agree with the sentiment on the document of 1776, we will not be put down with a gun, or threats. Very few people around here would buy into submission.
A stray thought for you snake killers: Once coming down a mountain ( looking for gold ) my dog stepped on a large rattler next to me, that snake sprang into the air 5 feet and addressed the crowd in the ready position. We just kept right on going down, a good sense dog.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:25 - ID#14431)
Gazebo--re: Golden Star Resources

Thanks for your recent post, that a major investor had to sell shares for "legal reasons." Was there any more information than that? Such as, who? I, too, wish I had more to invest in GSR. Bought just last week at 1 13/16, thinking I might have caught the bottom, but...

Guess I need to remember the response of Bernard Baruch, when someone asked him how he made all his money: "I never bought at the exact bought, and I never sold at the exact top."

Keep the news coming!

Thanks, Fergie

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:26 - ID#434108)
'our turn'...Allen @ 16:15
i think you are right
it is
'our - turn' .....

yet, miracles still happen.....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:28 - ID#14431)
Bernard Baruch's quote--typo
Sorry. Should read: "I never bought at the exact bottom, and never sold at the exact high."

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:39 - ID#288295)
tolerant1 - speaking of more Americans dying...

Aragorn III
(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:44 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA) your 16:15...Yep, I agree with your assertions that a *revolution*
need NOT "reinvent the wheel", that is why ( as you probably noticed ) that when I offered to pen the appropriate document at the end of my post, I simply started with the opening words to the Decl. of Ind. ( that's Independence, not Indiana ) . In my sometimes reckless haste to post I fail at acheiving the level of clarity that I often try to bring about in others. My sincere thanks for assuring that my message would not be misinterpreted by others.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:44 - ID#57232)
Our leaders get their power from the people
Allen ( USA ) : Well said. 'We the people' need to be more outspoken. The reason someone like WJC does what he does is that no one complains. Now fortunately the State Governors are catching on to his shenanegans, and the Chief Justice has put his foot down. WJC is a political animal, not a demagogue, fortunately for all of his. It is fortunate for us that he is not more devious than he is. It is possible to see through the hype to the 'real' WJC. God help us if we ever had a leader with WJC's charisma, brains, and a real drive to take over the government.
I think the whole world is slowly moving from a period of complacenty to a period when they question their leaders. I just hope the questions in the US begin soon before we have no more secrets to give away. I know there are many people in the US government that think the way we do. We need to give them more support to do their job behind the scenes.
As I have said before -- we have the power to change the future if we work within the system -- and I mean all people all over the world. The system is made by the people -- and no Tyrant can accomplish anything without willing assistants. The world will be whatever we want it to be within our natural limitations and natural resources. We can make it much better if we want to, and we have no one to blame except ourselves if we do not.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 16:57 - ID#434108)
freedom is
the very law of life

life itself
is rooted in freedom

we are not

we are not

we are utter freedoms

now it is up to us
what to make of it

you have to take
your life into
your own hands

and you are
responsible for it

no fate is responsible
no destiny is responsible

you have to
create yourself
by your own effort

the total responsibility
is yours

( bsr )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:01 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 20

Gold 1,059,912 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 83,875,458 - 928,870 troy ounces
Copper 53,342 - 67 short tons

N/A= Not available.
This may be the beginning of a shake-out! I know alot of us have been
talking about these Comex totals and their significance. If we see
several more million oz's drop ( like RJ and others have elluded to ) we
may soon see the huge rise in Silver that we've been expecting! If the
massive amounts of shorts reverse and go long we'll be back over SIX BUCKS before long!! HOTDOG!! Fox-Man

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:05 - ID#350179)
Gold traders close shops before Cambodian elections

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:05 - ID#426265)
New alltime high.
Today a very good day for Stillwater ( symbol swc ) . At 30 7/16 it closed at its high of the day and an alltime high. Also benefitting of this will be Franco Nevada ( fn-to ) because of their 5% royalty of all production in kind ( no costs or overhead included ) . With the Ken Snyder mine soon going in production Franco soon should show a 100% growth in earnings if we add the royalties of Stillwater. At $30 Canadian dollars ( $20.35 American dollars ) Franco imo is the best buy on the market today. Stillwater should do just al well with their big reserves of palledium and platinum reserves and production allready well on its way. Great opp. for anybody interesting in a good investment opp.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:10 - ID#411440)
@ all: spot gold up $1.50 to 295.90 and silver is up to $5.45. yet
lease rates on neither one of these metals budged. I must admit, I
expected some action from gold carry shorting and at least a small
bump in lease rates once POG of $295 was passed. The action was
a gentle firming with no serious short attacks all day for both
metals. Do the speculative shorts know something we don't?
They are laying off.

Did the yen climb/dollar fall?
Is there a rumor about lower interest rates?
This market has a much different feel to it.
Lease rates are still down, so the CBs still want the POG down.
If the shorts won't do their dirty work at 1.01% lease, the CBs
may drop lease rates tomorrow. How's that for pessimism? Happy?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:14 - ID#242325)
Energy Service Collapse
Pyramid: What is really frightening about that 30 S&P 500 P?E ratio is the fact that it is based on peak or near peak earnings. High P?E ratios are not so troubling if the economy is weak and profits temporarily depressed. But a P/E of 30 at this stage of the cycle boggles the mind.

I recall that someone here ( was it APH ) posted earlier this year about how great the energy service charts looked and he was going to put some retirement money into this booming sector. Well the energy service tocks have since collapsed and still are sinking like stones. But unlike gold stocks most energy service stocks still are roughly double where they were when this bull began.

The recent collapse in energy service should serve as a warning that trees do not grow to the sky. Look for similar carnage in many other sectors before the goblins come out for Halloween.

The Hatt
(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:17 - ID#369369)
Get Ready For A Bombshell!
The precious metals market is acting as though it is waiting for a bombshell and I suspect that we will see that bombshell before the end of July! The underlying strength feels different this time and I only hope that we are about to see a Breakout in Gold and Silver. My opinion is that Gold will lead the way. Japan is getting ready to show the U.S. that it is not about to lay down and die! The U.S. is vulnerable and we are about to witness how dollar denominated debt can crush an economy.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:24 - ID#373284)
SilverBaron, Namaste' a gulp to ya, Patron tequila don't ya know, getting partial to
the on to jacks ass in the White House...what are the odds on that many people being killed...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I will give the Coward Erect one thing and one thing only...he is consistent...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:24 - ID#350179)
Will The Millennium Bug Halt Chip Lines?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:31 - ID#290408)
Perpetual Motion
This is totally off topic but the falling rock post someone made today brought this to mind. Can someone tell me why this won't work?

1. lower a open high pressure tank to the bottom of the ocean. It will
sink under its own weight.

2. When it gets to the bottom, close the valve with some sort of remote control device.

3. Pull the tank up to the surface. It won't weigh anything to speak of
because things are pretty much weightless under water.

4. when it surfaces, attach a hose to the tanks valve.

5. You now have a tank full of water at 8000+ psi. This high pressure
water is capable of doing work. Use the free energy and repeat
the process.

What am I missing here? No this is not a trick question. I thought this up
and I'm curious why it won't work.

Back to topic, how much longer before a big stock market blow off?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:36 - ID#343171)
hows about hillary arrainging billies demise? many things accomplished for her personally and politically. not farout given this crowd. part of the blame would go to starr for forcing away secret service protection and also deem meany-guts 'right-wingers'

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:38 - ID#434108)
lease rates//rhody@ 17:10//& the 'hiding' bull-market in gold & silver
lease-rates are not the...'end-all'...
lease-rates are only 1 that is - 'one'.... finger in the pie spoke in the wheel...

lease-rates....including any-one's interpretation of them...
are still, only, one humble element, one piece,
of the jig-saw puzzle.......

producing itself,
at this very time

The pre-ponderance/majority, of many
technical & fundamental indicators,
are pointing toward/focussed on...
substantially higher U.S. dollar values/prices....
for gold and silver,
in the days, weeks, and months...


(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:39 - ID#57232)
The calm before the storm
The Hatt: I certainly hope you are right. A new bombshell about WJC might do the trick. Or big time trouble in Russia. The problem is, there are many currencies that could devalue some more, along with their respective markets. There is still alot of CB gold out there to saturate the markets if the defenders 'fiat' currencies decide to act one more time. I think an outright US equities market crash is unlikely for the next several months -- so that would not pull down the gold equities.
My guess is that the shorts ( and the longs ) are waiting for a sign. I certainly would keep some of my powder dry. Gold loan rates, and the commodity price indices are worth watching. When does the FED announce their next decision on interest rates? Very unlikely that it will be up.
The world does not need a stonger US dollar, IMHO. I think AG knows that.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.45. The 50 day moving average is 30.59.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .242. The 50 day moving average is .249. Today was the 34th time the XAU closed in the 71.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #28. The #1 ranking was on August 14, 1986, with a gold price of $387.1, an XAU of 71.79, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .185

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:47 - ID#335190)
Thousands flee heavy fighting in Kosovo town

ORAHOVAC, Yugoslavia ( AP ) -- Tens of thousands of refugees streamed deeper into guerrilla territory on Monday to escape the third straight day of fighting between Serb security forces and separatists, ethnic Albanian sources said.

Both sides have indicated weekend fighting in the town and near the border with Albania has killed at least 100 people

On Monday, the European Union condemned the reported infiltration of fighters from Albania into Kosovo and the alleged shelling by Yugoslav troops over the border into Albania.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:49 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.24. The 50 day moving average is 55.17

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:52 - ID#227238)
Silverbear: Assuming the tank to be a rigid structure and the water incompressible, all that will be accomplished is a sampling of water from the depths of the ocean.

An analogy would be the pressure vessel that is used to store well water in a rural setting. It must have some air ( acting as a spring ) in it to serve as a medium for storing the water under pressure. When the vessel becomes water bound ( no air ) , system water pressure drops instantly as the faucet is opened.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:53 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $294.35; spot silver $5.34, XAU 73.48

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:54 - ID#434108)
Silverbear@17:31/stock-market blow-off
Dear Silverbear,
Please change your handle, before you get left in the dust.
The final stock-market blow-off is in the making, at this time.
The NASDAQ's relentless, stubborn new highs,
is hinting/signaling... desperation....
the DJIA.....will mount a stampede toward 10,000...
in the days/weeks just ahead.

Watch 8/9/98 as a key date/day/week...
in this unfolding drama.....

We live now, in an ever-accelerating electronic age.....
computers, internets, e-mails, information, ideas are shared
at lightening speed
around the world

no IMF, nor collective of Central Banks
can stifle this roar of freedom

it is the impulse of 'spirit'
that is the
and life
of every individual living, coursing, streaming
being ....
whether lizzard or lion
or liberating soul of humanity

the impulse and innate integrity of life will never be crushed
nor long-denied...

Gold-money will return to,
and resurrect.....
this material world.

Just as honor, decency, tolerance, forgiveness, courage,
creativity,understanding, patience, beauty, and order....

will call us, once again, to our pure & perfect purpose.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:59 - ID#335190)
Corp. USofA Leader's & Corp. Union Leader's @ Trust eh! (expect worker/citizen/taxpayer sell out
UAW leaders declare support for GM strikes

FLINT, Mich. ( Reuters ) - At striker rallies and meetings punctuated by folk songs and chants of "one day longer,"

"They're fat cats again and now they're arrogant about it," Yokich said. "We know what we're fighting for -- dignity and honesty at the bargaining table. And that's what we're going to get, or we'll still be here come Christmas."

Harley Shaiken, a labor-relations professor at the University of California-Berkeley, said the specter of a strike at Saturn, long admired as a model of labor-management cooperation, just proves how bad things have gotten.

"If you have a strategy that provokes a strike at Saturn, what can you expect at Oklahoma City and Flint?" he said.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 17:59 - ID#32078)
The tank coming up will weigh slightly more than one going down. Have two tanks, one on each side of the ship and one goes up as the second goes down, using a counterweight technique. Attack bricks or rocks to the one going down if necessary, which release and stay on the bottom.

What's the pressure change at 40 feet?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:05 - ID#57232)
Pressure rise with depth under water - Quiet day - heading home. Makes up for working last 14 days.
Larryn: Every 32 feet the pressure rises by 15psi.
Any comments about the gold markets from your trading system? It seems a bit too quiet for my liking, even if up is probably more likely than down as long as the 'fiat' currencies don't melt down.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:07 - ID#275194)
At the bottom, things will look the worst. You will think that you are dead wrong. The CRB is doing more to make people think it will only just continue to go down and take gold and silver with it! The Stock Market is DONE!!!!!! Sell Now. Most think that we are not yet at an extreme, which is precisely why we are. Also remember that when some EVENT happens that they can point to as the reason for the debacle most will say, Yeah thats it! The signs are all there. Good luck and happy Puts...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:08 - ID#32078)
This five or six day uptrend for gold is solid, but I question much further if the CRB index goes down like today and the long bond rate descends, like today. I feel that there must be some commodity price uptrends other than metals.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:09 - ID#413307)
@ Goldfever: the Kitco Forum is an ad hoc investment club/community
for goldbugs. Many members specialize on one part of the gold
market, and watch and report. I choose pm lease rates, because
although other factors are important, I suspect lease rates are
the factors that pervert the gold market. BillD follows the CRB,
FOX-MAN does the COMEX, RJ is a short term metal dealer and chartist,
J. Disney reports on the South African golds and currency exchanges,
and Gollum does the macro-economics and interest rate policy stuff.
Many, many others contribute equity, political, environmental and
technological reports that have immense impacts on the operation
of the world financial system.

I think lease rates are important, but not to the exclusion of other
factors. I think, like interest rates, they must be watched as they
are symptomatic of strengths and weaknesses in the body financial.
Lease rates are like a fever, they can be measured and used to
predict future trends in the health of the market.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:10 - ID#335190)
Brokerage assessed $4 million in penalties

TORONTO ( CP ) -- In one of its stiffest punishments ever, the Toronto Stock Exchange has assessed more than $4 million in penalties against financial services firm First Marathon Inc. and several senior officers.

The TSE said its investigation focused primarily on the brokerage firm's involvement with junior mining company Cartaway Resources Corp.

An internal probe conducted by First Marathon found that a group of eight employees played multiple roles as major investors, promotors and underwriters of stock in Cartaway, which turned into a market fiasco when the price collapsed to $2 from a peak of $26 on one trading session in mid-1996 on news of a negative drill result.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:12 - ID#432148)
Spot gold and silver above their 50 day moving averages and XAU is closing in. Looking better. Is their hope? Appreciate your daily figures mucho.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:14 - ID#57232)
Larryn: Good advice. I was amazed how strong the gold equities are, given that the cry0 was heading south. Still looks like it is falling off a cliff. If we don't have a reversal soon in commodities, I agree with your prediction. Can you get access to the JOC spot commodities index? That is supposed to be more reliable at indicating turning points. I have trouble getting it. Can't afford the $100 plus per month. Looking for historical data on this index -- completely empty handed so far.
I do have the DJ spot commodities index -- will review tonight.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:15 - ID#288186)
goldfevr; Nicely said. We are at a juncture in our lives...where we shall see
many historical events unfold before our very eyes. These many events
have been discussed here and will continue to be discussed here because
they are real, they are plausable, and they are historical.
Precious Metals are not a "hot topic" with many of our friends or even
with our family members but they will be...some day soon. I believe it is
imperative to have and hold Gold and Silver for the many reasons discussed here like purchasing power, inflation hedge, bartoring, etc.
My fears are also shared by others here that we shall see changes here in the U.S. that won't be pleasant. Bank runs, riots, looting, etc are just as possible here as they are in other countries where they're already occurring. I hope and pray it doesn't happen, but I'm a realist
and think it shall...
Back to today's topic. Go gold! Go Silver! They had a nice finish didn't they? Fox-Man

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:18 - ID#434108)
rhody@18:09; OK, I call your 'hand'
Believe me, I read your comments, and multitudes of others,
and I respect each of us, endeavoring to contribute our....our...
our....little bit...
our individual sacred piece to this puzzle of truth....

but again, i ask you/others/every-one....
what ammunition can you give me...
for a re-newed bear-market in precious metals...
at this very specifice time....

when now,
every indicator, technical & fundamental, and intuitive, that i follow...

tells me
if i am willing to grow silent...
and....just 'listen'....

that the greatest, most magnificent bull market...
in gold & silver related investments...

is here...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:24 - ID#335190)
Yugoslavia: Russia Blames Ethnic Albanians For Kosovo Violence

Moscow, 20 July 1998 ( RFE/RL ) -- Russia has called on ethnic Albanian separatists in Serbia's Kosovo province to immediately cease fire and return to the negotiating table. Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin said that despite all the attempts by the international community to improve the situation in Kosovo, it is still deteriorating. Rakhmanin said the Kosovo Albanian fighters were to blame for this through their provocative acts. Russia is a traditional ally of the Serbs.

Albania today asked Greece to use its influence with the Serbian authorities to bring an end to the fighting. The request came at a meeting in Tirana between Greek Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos and Albanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo. Pangalos said he would meet Kosovo representaives and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Greece is a traditional friend of Orthodox Christian Serbia.

In The Hague, Serbian opposition leaders met U.S. special envoy Richard Gelbard. The Serbs said they would press Gelbard to have the United States take a lead in helping end the Kosovo conflict.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:30 - ID#57232)
At the turning point - logging off.
Foxman, goldfvr: Interesting times -- we all know exactly what will happen, but we don't know when and how bad it will be. And there are good things happening too -- the awaking of the people to the actions of their leaders, IMHO. We do know that a two year gold bear will not be repeated. Our gold bull will begin, soon, probably. But we do know that the really big gold rally will be some time to come -- perhaps well after y2k. There will be ups and downs for years -- we could be 15 years away from the next massive gold runup to $1000 plus. We must be patient, and learn more about when to buy and sell. I wish I had enough assets so that I felt comfortable just holding and waiting, but I do not.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:34 - ID#413307)
@ goldfevr: Sorry, I cannot give you a lease rate sign for a
continued gold market bear. I can tell you that every spike in gold
prices was predated by a period of lease rates below 1% followed by
a rapid rise in lease rates. Sometimes the low lease rate period
lasted for over a year, and other times it was brief. Each low
lease rate event was followed by a spike. We have not gone below
1% in 1 month lease rates, yet. We are close.

I think we go below 1% as the CBs try desperately to stem the
rise in POG. They are close to desperation now, but not quite
there. The shorts know, they have backed off. Lease rates also
indicate we are close to the bull. IMHO.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:37 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Silverbear: Haven't had a whole lot of physics, but here's my shot at your problem: Water isn't compressible as Earl has noted. The only thing that gives the water you put in the tank its 8000 psi pressure is the tons and tons of water above it. Once you bring the water sample back up to the surface, the pressure vanishes, because the weight of the water above it has been removed.

But here's a modification of your idea that might work: Sink a large air-filled bag to the bottom of the ocean, weighting it down with tons of bricks or something. Once on the bottom, place the bag in a high-pressure tank with a remote-controlled device, remove the weights, and bring it back to the surface. Now you've got a tank full of compressed air and that *will* do work for you. Caveats: The bag and tank are ideal. Problems: The work expended in getting everything to the bottom and back up again -- not to mention getting to and from the site -- may exceed the work you'll get out of the compressed air. And even if not, we still wouldn't have perpetual motion, as all the energy in this experiment can be accounted for ( is conserved ) .

Okay, all you physicists out there, how much work *could* be gotten out of this experiment vs. input energy?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:38 - ID#413307)
@ all: signing off till later tonight when I will check to
see if the CBs have dropped lease rates. ( I hope. )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:41 - ID#335190)
Updated Monday, July 20, 1998 at:
NYC 6:40 a.m. London 11:40 a.m. Prague 12:40 p.m. Moscow 2:40 p.m.

Yeltsin Signs Decree on Precious Metals Exports

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) President Boris Yeltsin signed a decree on Saturday allowing precious metals producers to export their output directly this year as long as the proceeds were reinvested in the sector.

Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov said earlier this month the government was planning the measure for gold exports. Over the past year, only the central bank and commercial banks who get a special license have been allowed to export precious metals.

He said a degree would be signed soon but did not mention other metals in announcing the change.

The decree issued by the Kremlin referred to precious metals in general, saying export volumes for individual metals were outlined in an appendix, which was not supplied.

"To adopt the Russian government's proposal on exports by organizations in 1998 of nonferrous metals, including precious metals, in volumes outlined in the appendix, on the condition currency from these exports remaining after obligatory sales on the domestic currency market goes to support production in these organizations and also for reconstruction and technical re-equipment," the decree said.

It said the measure would come into effect immediately and its implementation would be controlled by the Finance and Economy ministries.

Nemtsov had said the decree was aimed at stimulating production and investment in a sector which is a key revenue-earner for the cash-strapped Russian state. ( ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:41 - ID#284255)
Part 2 from the Weatherman
Courtesy of Championship Financial Advisors
Randy Flink, Founder and President


Part A was posted to list last week. It is archved at:



A portion of one's Financial Assets should be reinvested in
Non-Financial Assets as a means to insure survival and relative
stability in a y2k-battered economy. The choice of Non-Financial
Assets is a strictly matter of personal perception, and the amount
invested will depend on one's level of y2k discomfort. Here is a
sample list, which might run approximately $10,000-15,000 for a family
of suburban dwellers.

6-Month Supply:

* Drinking water ( 150 gallons per person )
* Food products ( including whole grains )
* Fuel supplies for power generators
* Medicines, prescription
* Medical supplies, extended first aid kit
* Personal hygiene products
* Trash bags, disposable plates, cups and eating utensils
* Disinfectants
* Rodent and insect baits
* Insect repellants

Other Products & Implements

* Power generators and inverters ( e.g., diesel, solar )
* Heating and lighting equipment
* Cooking equipment, portable
* Cooking fuel ( e.g., propane, charcoal, wood )
* Firearms and ammunition
* Water purification equipment
* Grain grinder, hand-operated
* Gasoline, treated ( 50 gallons per vehicle )
* Tool kit, manual operation
* Bicycles ( one for each active family member )
* Lawn mower, manual
* Shovel & pick
* Padlocks and chains
* Shower rig, solar portable
* Safe

Championship Financial Advisors is pleased to provide you with this
starter's manual on constructing a y2k Personal Insurance Plan.
Should you require professional assistance in constructing a Y2k
Personal Insurance Plan, we are offering through June 30, 1999,
Program 1 and Program 2 below.

For specific inquiries or questions, please e-mail or send a fax to 214-365-6016
and let us know the best way to contact you.


Comprehensive conversion of Financial Assets to recommended y2k
allocation. For cost information, please send an e-mail to On-going fee-based asset
management services also are available upon request.


Comprehensive execution of the y2k Personal Insurance Plan with
certain exceptions ( e.g., firearms and ammunition, prescription
medicines ) . For cost information, please send an e-mail to

For general inquiries about Championship Financial Advisors, please
e-mail or send a fax to


Y2k Weatherman Comments:

To learn more about Randy Flink and Championship financial Advisors,
go here:

If you have more money than time on your hands ( and we're all running
out of time! ) , I highly recommend you contact Championship Financial
Advisors via the email addresses above. ( Please use the correct email
address based on your question or inquiry. )

Randy Flink and his associates at Championship Financial Advisors
provide complete privacy and discretion with their top-notch
professional service. I have no financial interest in Championship
Financial Advisors, and I'm using Randy's service myself.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:41 - ID#295111)
Deflation or Dow 30,000 Consequences
Food for thought.....

Homestake was able to quadruple after the 1929 crash, not because gold went up in price,it was pegged!!...but because deflation allowed the costs of production to decline.

Also, all world currencies have declined against the US dollar thus allowing all mines outside the USA to lower costs relative to the US dollar.

Therefore, the gains to be made by Gold stocks in a "1929" type crash this time around would be TREMENDOUS on the upside cause gold will definately move UP UP UP and AWAY!!!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:43 - ID#242325)
larryn: Gold is A LEADING INDICATOR. When the gold bear began in 1996, the CRB was behaving quite nicely. But look at it today. Gold can go up when most other commodities are declining just as it can go down when the CRB is strong.

In rertospect this savage gold bear was telling us long ago that the CRB would be smashed. .

Whether or not this latest gold rally turns out to be the real thing, POG will almost certainly move up well before the CRB.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:44 - ID#434108)
thanks rhody@ 18:34//lease-rate whores.....
don't pin too much on those bastards
they will climb aboard
after the band-wagon gets rolling....

the bull is ...


(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:45 - ID#412172)
Lighter side
Have the greatest respect for the "Plain People" in our area, but cannot resist some of the humor they generate.
Subject: Troubled Amish Teens

For those of you not familiar with the recent events in
Pennsylvania, a couple of Amish guys were recently arrested here for being part of a drug ring. In light of that ...

Top Ten Signs Your Amish Teen Is In Trouble

10. Sometimes stays in bed till after 6 a.m.

9. In his sock drawer, you find pictures of women without

8. Shows up at barn raisings in full "Kiss" makeup.

7. When you criticize him he yells, "Thou Suck!"

6. His name is Jebediah, but he goes by "Jeb Daddy."

5. Defiantly says, "If I had a radio, I'd listen to rap."

4. You come across his secret stash of colorful socks.

3. Uses slang expression "Talk to the hand, cause the beard
ain't listening."

2. Was recently pulled over for driving under the influence of
cottage cheese.

1. He's wearing his black hat backwards.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:46 - ID#57232)
Dow Jones Spot Index
All: for your review. Not good if you believe the DJSI should lead the Gold price. Historically, during inflationary times, spot gold lead spot commodities.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:54 - ID#57232)
Couldn't resist
Roebear: Appreciate the humor -- was needed. Given what I know about the Ahmish, I would guess that the drug they were caught selling was illicit painkillers - Aspirin. Is the Strasburg Railway still running from Paradise to Intercourse?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 18:57 - ID#287186)
How do we remedy a system that doesn't work for us anymore?
In time the system gets worse and worse. We add programs here and programs there. We add programs to manage the programs. We add more programs to handle the problems with other programs. Pieces of programs and files get scattered all over the place. The FAT grows and grows. Then we have to add programs to manage the FAT. And programs to oversee the programs that oversee the FAT.
Old programs dont cooperate with new programs and vice versa. Adding a new program or manager only screws up the works and requires a program to manage the addition.
TSRs, DLLs and special interest programs become entrenched and any effort to replace or retrain them only throws the whole system into disarray. These programs have their tentacles in so many areas that pulling them out leaves pieces attached to old programs and rips holes in otherwise productive programs.
Wizards are introduced to help us but they often only make it worse.
During all the confusion self-serving parasites creep into the works. They infect everything they touch. They are out to monopolize system resources for their own ends. They undermine the failing system even more.
Backup programs, which should provide checks and balances, introduce their own problems - for they insist on having the system operate the way they want it to.
One non-cooperative party to the whole affair can crash the system.
Registration and exchange programs exchange information with other systems.
The manual doesnt do any good because none of the programs adhere to it any more.
We lose control of our system.
Eventually it gets too bad and it is time to reformat.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:01 - ID#412172)
Strasburg RR
Is still running as are the buggies and for the most part the Amish way of life. But the farms are getting too expensive and more of the younger folk are taking to other ways. I sure would miss them if they all did.
Counterpoint is that there is a revival of religious interest among many of the youth in the area. Old ways are gold ways. BBL

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:06 - ID#202123)
Federal forms to buy gold/silver?
Would appreciate any feed back on this. I felt my local coin dealer wasn't giving me the best deal on golden eagles, so I went to a coin shop in a large city 40 miles away.

Long story to short: I said what I wanted ( golden eagles ) and he said OK. I got my money out and he handed me a federal form to sign. One of those for $10,000 withdrawl/purchase. I said I'm not buying that much---he said: "You might in a 12 month period". I left with no gold---

Is this standard? Never had to do that before.

I was only going to buy 4 eagles. Nothing big time here. Just a 51 year old retired guy with a five year old daughter snipping at my heels ( in real time )

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:22 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update - note the bottom line???
U.S. Contemplates Training Chinese Special Forces

In response to a question at the routine U.S. Department of Defense news
briefing on Thursday, July 16, Defense Department spokesman Kenneth Bacon
confirmed that the U.S. may consider joint Special Forces training with
China. Bacon was asked to "comment on comments today by the commander of
the U.S. Special Forces Command that some future joint training with China
would be desirable... Is the Defense Department involved in promoting any
such future linkup?" Bacon responded, "In a broad sense, we're looking at
future military exchanges with China. I'm not aware of any specific look
right now at Special Forces operations, but that certainly would be a type
of military exchange we would consider. We have agreed since 1996,
December of 96, to explore new ways of improving cooperation between the
United States and China; new ways of getting our militaries to work
together more smoothly in training or other types of missions, and we will

The questioner was referring to comments made by U.S. Special Forces
Command chief General Peter Schoomaker. Schoomaker had told reporters that
he thought joint training with the People's Liberation Army ( PLA ) was
"desirable." Said the general, "You need to engage so you develop rapport
and understanding and have another method of dialogue. What we would
encourage is low-level contact at the small-unit level that allows us to...
develop trust and confidence that then brings in higher level people."
Schoomaker said that Admiral Joseph Prueher, head of the U.S. Pacific
Command, had been discussing the idea.

During President Clinton's recent visit to China, the two countries reached
a reciprocal agreement in which officers from each country would observe
certain military exercises of the other. China has reportedly already sent
observers to the six-nation Rim Pac exercises off Hawaii, and is scheduled
to send observers to the five-nation Cope Thunder exercises in Alaska later
in July. In a more active relationship, the U.S. Air Force and Coast Guard
will participate with PLA and Hong Kong authorities in search-and-rescue
exercises in December.

The idea that the Clinton Administration could be considering an
arrangement in which the U.S. Special Forces would train the PLA is
staggering. The Administration has faced intense criticism of its China
policy, from its decision to extend China's Most-Favored Nation trade
status to Clinton's visit to Beijing. Considering the PLA's abysmal and
very public record in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Tiananmen Square, the
Administration's consideration of a plan to train the PLA in unconventional
warfare shows questionable political judgement at best. The move could
almost be seen as a direct slap in the face to those who would question the
Administration's China policy.

There can be little justification for the exchange from a military
standpoint either. The Chinese do not need U.S. training in unconventional
warfare techniques. We learned from them. Perhaps the proposal is a cover
for a technology transfer. It could also reflect a U.S. hope that the
situation would offer an intelligence-gathering opportunity. But China is
not so clumsy as to allow any information gathered through the joint
operations to be worth the bad public relations the U.S. can expect.

The message this proposal sends to Taiwan, Japan, and China's other
neighbors can only cause them concern, but perhaps the message is aimed at
China itself. The only rational justification we can find for U.S. Special
Forces training of the PLA is as part of an attempt to maintain good
relations with Beijing. Perhaps the Administration hopes that, through
exchanges such as this, the U.S. can forestall the emergence of a wholly
anti-American sentiment in Beijing and the emergence of an anti-American
regional hegemon. Considering the state of China's economy, and our
determination that it is destined for economic and social collapse, we
believe that this is a vain hope. In its efforts to hold itself together
in the face of economic calamity, China will need a scapegoat, and the
prime candidate for that role is the U.S.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:25 - ID#431366)
If they can sacrifice hundreds to bolster their anti-American power
With the various and sundry snippets coming to light about the militarys collusion ( I could only wish it was a collision ) with the administrations subversion of our constitution - Oklahoma City and the Red Berets are only two more notable ) I do not agree with some here that our military would side with the people if push came to shove.
Please - if you have connections with active duty officers of fairly high rank - please counter my argument. But I am getting more and more wary of our troops imposing martial law and, like prison guard experiments, growing accustomed to the practice of stomping on civilians.
I fear that hoards of Gold, Silver, Food, Guns, Ammo, Medicine, etc will be taken from us by force and the cooperative populace, fearing for their own welfare, will turn us in.
Guys, I find the Oklahoma City bombing coverup and the training of foreign troops to be over the top regarding our militarys deception of Americans. They will roll over the legions of underarmed veterans like a scythe through a wheatfield. We are screwed!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:34 - ID#431366)
Squirrel, is your 18:57
talking about computers or governments?
Seems to me that both need a low-level format.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:37 - ID#431366)
Roebear - soon we will need more forms
to buy case lots of beef stew or baby food.
Maybe the ration cards instead.
One day's supply at a time. Stand in line.
Anybody caught with over a week's supply will be shot
and their food redistributed to the needy.
Just like the in times of old in dictatorships so bold.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 19:44 - ID#431366)
Sorry Roebear - Milwaukee's Best had me seein' crooked
T'was Weiser that questioned the forms.

Roebear - some of those infractions you mentioned below
could carry harsh penalties in a WJC/China dictatorship.

Best hide our Gold & Silver deep - for our grandkids to use.
It will be too risky for us or our kids if we have any.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:01 - ID#412286)
Squirrel 15:57
The Corporate elite parasites you describe perfectly. Let us make our profits and bail us out when we lose.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:04 - ID#288295)
Tantalus Rex @ Homestake

You may be right about the Depression-era costs dropping giving Homestake Mines a boost in its stock price, but the big run-up in price that everyone cites is thru 1935.

My references indicate that the US dollar was devalued against gold in the 1933-34 period. It was fixed at $20.67/oz in 1933, and at $35.00/oz in 1934.

I suspect that this devaluation, along with the fact that mining stocks were one of only two ways for the public to invest in gold ( the other was numismatic coins ) had a big effect on the stock price pre-1935.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:11 - ID#202123)
Most important part of 19:06 post
Thanks. I'm not rude by nature--- but sometimes not where I should be with my manners. This is the best house, with the best and most diiversified people around. Thanks again. Jerry

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:12 - ID#267344)
weiser - the person who wants you to fill out those forms...
is a fascist sympathiser. He/she does not deserve your money or time. There are plenty of honorable businesses around - but, like everything, you must seek them out. Do not make any purchases unless you feel that it is 100% fair. Some bastards try to make you think that they are the only game in town. I laugh at these people because they certainly are not - they are worthless slime who have no sense of community. The dealer whome you spoke of was totally out of line. Keep looking and good luck.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:13 - ID#402148)
HOMESTAKE was a major strike...
it's big Depression era run was the quantity that was discovered, not price or cost.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:16 - ID#373284)
weiser, Namaste' I agree with clone completely...
I would buy nothing from a Clinton sympathizer

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:18 - ID#288295)
HopeFull @ Homestake

I didn't know they had a big strike during the depression. The only thing they cite on their website is a startup in 1876.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:21 - ID#287186)
ROR - actually the parasites I was alluding to
were bureacrats and meddling busybodies who use government force to coerce others into behaving as the busybodies wish...
whether it is the rusticated city slicker who objects to a neighbor skinning out his elk next door or the holier than thou faithful who object to neighbors picketing the local bookstore or those who take your money to provide welfare and clean needles to the pregnant teenage junkie or the anti-business types who force my small business to pay minimum wage to high school graduates who can't add, read or clean up after themselves.
Sorry guys.
I read Gold and Silver heading up and I am buying tomorrow.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:22 - ID#417249)
Guv Mint...AAaacchh! Ppttuuii!
Every time I start to think like ROR, I get a dose of Bureaucratic/Fascist Neo-Socialist In-Your-Face
HorseS%#t from the "Powers" that BE! It's enough to convert me to Hard Right! And I would if it wouldn't support the Bureaucratic/Fascist Neo-Capitalist Corporate Elite Fundementalists.
Nuf sed.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:25 - ID#287186)
Pardon me. I get on a roll and edits get wrongly spliced
It was alluding to those holier than thou faithful who object to the bookstores wares and are the ones picketing the bookstore.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:33 - ID#224151)
40 years with the same woman. Am I in a rut or not? She must be a good one to hang out
so long with an old goldbug! Either that or shes a crazy too! 5 daughters and 7
grandchildren are the fruits of these far! As for those so-called Golden years
they are yet to come as far as my investments are concerned ( I hope ) .....but in reality I
believe the true golden years are the ones we have survived. The ones that taught us those
tough lessons....and provided those precious memories we now have the time to savour.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:34 - ID#267344)
left a couple things out of my last...
It took me two years to find people I was comfortable in dealing metals with. I think you will find that sources become easier to find as you learn more about the culture of gold. It is important to note that one should always keep a receipt upon acquiring the physical. It is not necessary, however, to have your name on that receipt. You may find someday that being discrete works to your advantage. Remember that you will be taxed on all earnings you report. You can also claim a loss if gold becomes worthless. Of course, once they start taxing 100% of your income the loss won't do you any good.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:47 - ID#396249)
Wieser/ROR....wieser your dealer was correct there is a $10,000.00 reporting requirment,however it

is the responsibility of the dealer to keep stores are like pawn carefull there job is to

ROR.....stick to MAI it will give you some
creditability anything else is all up
hill........sorry it is a fact

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:49 - ID#147201)
JTF re EMF,s
Did I send you the info re Charlie Yost? His phone is 828 683 2617. He is a former NASA engineer and has gone heavy into Tesla and free energy etc. He's as far out and respectable as any I have found. I'm working on some info about quakes and the EMF environment we live in. From solar wind to the earth's fields. Give me a little time and I'll get back.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:52 - ID#335190)
Grizz @ 19:25 (Lest We Forget)
Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 19:25
Grizz ( If they can sacrifice hundreds to bolster their anti-American power )

YES, "We are screwed!" In the short run. But, The people will push back. YES, the people will win. Not to worry, the cost will be excessive unfortunately.

The USofA army has been used against the worker/citizen/taxpayer/veteran before in the USofA, as the army has been used against the worker/citizen/taxpayer/veteran in Canada.

The veterans of world war I were about to show how late it was. Thousands of them, under a Congressional Act of 1923, had $50 or $100 coming to them under a provision for adjusted service pay. The money, however, would not be paid until 1945. But in 1932 $50 or $100 seemed a fortune, meant the difference between eating and not eating if only for a matter of weeks.

The troops were drawn up in Pennsylvania Avenue when General MacArthur and Colonel Eisenhower arrived at about 4 p.m. Some of the bonus marchers were barricaded at Third Street, where there was a shanty village of veterans.

As the cavalrymen, swinging their sabres, cleared the barricade, infantrymen, gas masks on their faces, advanced on the pathetic, makeshift group of packing-box huts, the women and children running shrieking before their country's soldiers who lobbed tear gas bombs after them.

The United States Army was again victorious. Master of the field, General MacArthur was being interviewed by a reporter " The mob was a bad-looking one" "It was one marked by signs of revolution. The gentleness and consideration with which they had been treated they had mistaken for weakness."

Flushed with victory, President Hoover issued a proud and ringing statement. "A challenge to the authority of the United States has been met swiftly and firmly," he said. "After months of patient indulgence, the government met overt lawlessness as it always must be met...The first obligation of my office is to uphold and defend the Constitution and the authority of the law. This I propose always to do."

South into Virginia, north into Pennsylvania, over into Maryland, the 25,000 fled from their government and its army. Well might they weep.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:54 - ID#267344)
Pedro - truly, you wacked!
Married for forty years, five daughters... sheesh! I would have stuck with the gold, thanks. These days it is a rare woman indeed who does not take your house, your children, AND your gold ( at least the lot that you trusted her knowledge of ) . I raise my glass to you, sir, as one who has truly mastered his life and reaped its rewards! Cheers.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:57 - ID#284255)
This follows on from the grocery run article
Just a few comments to supplement the "Grocery Guru's" recent

I am a mid level manager for a very large food distributer. I have been
in this business for nearly 30 years. My corporation is world-wide and
here in the states we distribute food to all 50 states.

To mak a long story short, we are totally dependant on the
telecommunication, transportation, and electric utilities industries.
The trucking industry in computer dependant ant satellite
dependant.There is a 45 day supply of grain in the US today, but without
the ability to distribute it, we are reduced to 10-14 days at the point
of sale. Compound this with runs on the stores and you begin to see that
food can become a serious problem within 10 days.

As for the possibility of a return to acceptable food levels, keep in
mind that 55% of the food in this country comes from outside its
borders. It appears that this source will disappear. The loss of our
livestock during the winter of 2000 could reduce our food production to
20% of our current needs; and that's assuming we have only a short ( 2-4
weeks ) disruption of the basic services.

The highest producing areas we may have in a disaster are the west coast
and the deep south, due to the ability to harvest 2 crops in a growing
season and the presence of consistent rains...The survival factor for
the unprepared will be strongest in those areas, should the worst come
to pass....

For the record, my company has not completed assessment of its systems,
yet. Last year we were a 16 billion dollar company. Due to obvious
considerations, no names will be given.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 20:58 - ID#373284)
Pedro, Namaste'
Congratulations to you and yours. A giant gulp of Patron tequila at yaand make sure you pull a coin out of the kids ears once in a while...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:05 - ID#24997)
A nice post from Crystal Ball on the TVX message board
Comments would be appreciated.

...I looked into my Cystal, this is what is going to happen my children:

A. New Prime Minister for Japan is the catalyst. It doesn't make any difference who it is. The new man has the mandate to respond to international pressure from IMF and BIS who are orchestrating the next crisis for him.

B. China and Russia can now devalue, giving Japan the cover necessary to integrate Japan into the new world monetary system about to be created.

C. DOW corrects 20 to 25% as there is no more foreign money to be invested here. The Japanese want EURO bonds. DOW doesn't bounce back. Foreign investors in the US are really getting scared. The dual crisis of devaluation and a DOW correction causes them to embrace the BIS.

D. Majors begin to accquire the golds that have been weakened and are vulnerable. Von Finck locked up HM because he has balls and stong ties to Tietmeyer ( the BIS and the Bundesbank ) . He and Tietmeyer are like Soros and Rubin.
Germany will rule Europe with or without the EURO. They need GOLD.

E. Bretton Woods II held to stabilize Asian economies, BIS to stabilize Asian paper with link to gold. ( ) . Japan feels secure enough now to let Japanese investors take their money abroad.

F. POG takes off as the BIS and the worlds independent billionaires have taken the positions they needed as the bargain of the decade. Their spoils are now secure.

G. The Dollar begins to fall, keeping the DOW from dropping further, but our economy remains stable as Asian economies recover with the added benefit of industrial consolidation.

H. This is going to happen by the end of the year.

Hail the New Millenium. Our Sheep are being corraled and about to be fleeced.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:07 - ID#390415)
Y2K scenarios
THIS entire issue is a wild card. When do which sectors of the populace start to effectively ( i.e., primarily economically ) demonstrate their concern, and how? Already insurers are demonstrating their concern by resisting / refusing coverage. Vendors of survivalist foods ( I am told ) are already experiencing a surge of demand.

When do nervous folks start pulling out their savings, "just in case"? When do yuppies start pulling a portion out of the market, claiming they are not worried about Y2k, "just diversifying a little"? I would be interested to know if far-in-advance reservations for travel are already exposing a reluctance to travel on or shortly after the fearsome date.

When does the Y2k run-up in gold start?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:13 - ID#412172)
Grizz maybe I was
showing "poor form", but wait till the next joke, it is a real knee slapper. As for bury the gold and silver deep, I agree, but the newest metal detectors and ground radar make it difficult for common burial caches to be effectively secure. I believe to assure success in security it will be necessary to divine some details of the coming New Age economy. For such I seek, as possibly the changes over the next 20 or so years will leave behind those of the last hundred faster than a Viper can make a horse and buggy disappear in the dust.
Nevertheless, the horse and buggy still survive and the Amish still prosper, but perhaps not enough to keep up with the New Age of eco-politics.
Our ideas then, rooted in gold as true as history, must still be cunning and adaptive enough to survive and prosper, without turning Judas to our souls.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:16 - ID#24997)
Comments on ANOTHER from Tony Bull
This is not the first time someone post comments from Tony Bull on Kitco, it was mentionned that he should be a regular on this group. In the meantime his comments are well appreciated on many Yahoo gold message boards. Here are his comments on the latest ANOTHER comments, copyed from the TVX board, feel free to comment too on both.

...I read all "ANOTHER's posts and tried to get the meat out
of them. In essence he says:


1. Oil is linked to the price of gold.

2. Paper investments will be destroyed ( stock markets,
options, bonds, derivatives, etc ) .

3. The Euro will be a very strong currency. Expect greater
gold backing from participating nations sometime in the
future. If EURO fails, gold will become the "world oil

4. Silver will not show as good returns as gold!

5. Mining shares will NOT do as good as gold itself!

6. No need to devalue the Chinese yuan.

7. Gold is equated as the "estate of kings".

8. "The past has shown that honest money must be taken
from a person using force, today, our assets are removed
as we sleep!"


My personal comments:

1. He is basically a gold BULL and he does not believe
that any paper assets will survive the financial holocaust.
If he is such a bear for the dollar, why doesn't he go short
on dollars? The net profits will be the same as owning gold!

2. He goes on and on to get down to a simple conclusion,
or a belief. Why doesn't he try to get the point across
fast and concisely?

3. By touting that the yuan will not devalue, he has
essentially proclaimed that the yuan will be as strong as
the USD. God forbid, this is too much!

4. He believes of the great link between dollar and gold.
I feel that if Arab nations try to blackmail the west with
oil, another bigger engineered "DESERT STORM" may result
of re-ownership of the oil fields. Unless of course the west
goes along with the blackmail so that the "New World Order"

5. I have always believed ( as he does ) that the EURO will
become strong and threaten the dollar. I will be shifting
gradually inestments to Europe as diversity compells one
to protect his assets the best way possible. Ironically,
Mr. Greespan's comments "we ( US ) welcome the EURO" makes
one wonder why?

6. I dissagree with him that gold mining shares will not
perform as well as gold. Unhedged mines will do very well
because of leverage.

7. I think that silver will show better returns than gold
because even if industrial demand slows down, investment
demand will more than counterbalance it. It is still
considered the poor man's gold!




(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:19 - ID#43460)
SWC still going up, broke $30 today
Well, this happens whenever I have a good stock pick. the durned thing worries me to distraction. Now SSC, there's a solid donothing week! But SWC is driving me nuts.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:26 - ID#202123)
clone, tolerant1,robnoel and $10,000 form
I was unfamilar with. Information greatly appreciated. Thanks!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:37 - ID#43460)
weiser re cash for gold
Why not pay for it with a check? If you ever sell it you'll need a receipt for taxes you know. IMHO

( Sometimes I wish I could find someone who would take mastercard for bullion coins. There are times would be worth the extra 2.5% to be able to pick up the phone and call without having to hassle with leaving work, going to the bank, getting a certified check, et cetera. Nowadays there are dealers who will take a personal check, but then they sit on the gold until the check clears, taking forever or so it seems. ) IMHO

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:37 - ID#267344)
The IMF really, really wacked!!!

I cannot beleive that the IMF is lending more $$ to Russia. The IMF won't even open its books for Congress ( gee, could it be that the IMF is a corrupt, evil institution??? hmmmm, I wonder... ) . This IMF give away ( they must know they will never see the money again ) will quickly fall into the hands of the Bastards ( Mafia, etc ) - empowering them to oppress the common man ( like me ) even more. I think I am starting into another one of my frustrated moods. PART OF THAT MONEY THAT THE IMF IS SENDING TO THE RUSSIAN POWER GRABBERS WAS ONCE MINE! I willingly allowed my central government to take it from me because I was afraid of what might happen to me if I refused. However, my federal government is far too large to funtion at any level of competency. The fear I have of my own government has directly empowered a government far more corrupt than my own ( at least on the surface ) to continue its asinine campaign against its people. My complacency has been exploited by dark and powerful forces. Thus, I am the fuel from which these forces feed!

Oh well, I wonder if there's anything good on television... good night.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:37 - ID#412172)
Gold traders feel like this horse?
An Amish woman was driving her buggy one day when she was pulled over by the an officer of the law, a metropolitain transplant who did not yet understand rural ways.
Mrs Stolzfus, you have a broken reflector on back of your buggy, now I shant give you a ticket today, but you must have your husband fix that reflector when you get home.
The Amish lady nodded.
Furthermore Mrs. Stolzfus, I see that one of the reins is looped around the horses testicles. This is cruelty to animals, you must have your husband fix that harness for sure!
The Amish lady nodded again but with a confused look.
Upon arriving home when her husband came in from the field she greeted him with the news.
Jonas Stozfus, I was stopped by a policeman and he said ve must get the reflector fixed on the buggy or he vill give us a ticket.
To which Jonas replied, He vill gif us a ticket for a reflector! Vas there nothing else the matter now?
Yes there was another thing Mrs. Stozfus replied,
He said there was something wrong with the emergency brake....

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:39 - ID#342376)
Walker Market Letter......
// -- COMMENTARY -- //

The market is now clearly in meltup mode. The DJIA has finally
broke through to new all time highs, the NASDAQ has broken through
the 2000 barrier, and the SP500 is roaring ahead. The cash that was
sitting on the sidelines is now pouring into the mutual fund companies,
the summer rally is on, and the ONLY question is when will the DJIA hit
10,000. Time to go back to reading that summer novel, come back in early
September and collect the extra 20% you are going to make on your mutual
funds, right?

Maybe not so fast. The market has had an exhilarating ride for the last
month ( and it has been only a month - the DJIA bottomed on 6/15 ) , but

not everyone is joining in on the party. The Russell 2000 is still 6%
below its all time high back on 4/23/98, and the advance decline line
clearly shows that this summer rally is leaving a lot of stocks behind.

Let's take a closer look at those market internals. You will remember
that last month we were starting to feel bullish due to the favorable
divergences in the market internals. In May and June the market was
weak, but the market breadth ( advancing and declining issues ) was
considerably stronger than the price action would imply. Now we are
starting to see the opposite picture in this rally. Simply put, the
internals are not looking particularly healthy right now.

We expect that these divergences will lead to some weakness this week.
It probably will not last more than a couple days, and then the market
should rally back up to more new highs. These new highs will be
accompanied by a second, more dramatic, set of divergences which will,
of course, set us up for more weakness. That is about as far out as our
crystal ball goes right now. But it sure looks like things are lining up
for some type of an intermediate term top in the late July or August
time frame.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:48 - ID#227238)
Roebear: LOL! Welcome back. Haven't heard from you in such a long time. ..... The last joke was worth the wait.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 21:54 - ID#202123)

I may know a person who could have some problems in the future. It appears they have been buying pm for the last 18/19 years and just giving money for pm with no paper/receipt being exchanged.

Hope they can cash in.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:02 - ID#267344)
I think it could get messy...
I think that the IMF is setting the stage for a HUGE war. The IMF, contolled by very powerful beings, is hopelessly indebting ENTIRE NATIONS of unsuspecting people unto its mercy. The absolute impossibility for these nations to fufill their obligations to the IMF will create a hostile, anti-establishment reaction that will lash out against the IMF and all that it represents. It is conceivable that such a reaction would not only be anti-IMF but anti-West, anti-Democratic, anti-Capitalist, and definately anti-US. Out of desparation and rash accusations, I think this will lead to all out war unless the US happens to yield in every concievable way ( yeah, uh-huh, sure, that'll be the day ) . The only good I see coming out of the events that have transpired under the reign and of the IMF is that the price of all commodities will reach unprecidented levels. I will be a very rich man - with radiation sickness and anthrax poisoning. Population control, here we come. Hey man, lay off.

Now I know there must be something good on the tube...

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:03 - ID#427357)
ANALYSTS HALL OF FAME: June Spotlight on Frank Veneroso

Each month G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary market commentary and analysis submitted to it. We have two goals in mind in establishing the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT for extraordinary work. Firstly, to formally recognize the generous sharing of the analyst's considerable knowledge and time in preparing thought-provoking studies ( we are talking many long hours of research, analysis and verbalization to perfect an insightful report ) . And lastly, to aid the rapidly expanding golden-eagle readership to zero in on the most outstanding posts in its many webpages ( now more than 700 ) .

The SPOTLIGHT AWARD for June shines on Frank Veneroso for his intriguingly interesting report entitled "Memories of the Souk al Manakh."

The critically-acclaimed and insightful report may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

Steve in TO__A
(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:04 - ID#287337)
gagnrad - re: your 21:37
There is a way you can buy gold bullion, but not coins, with mastercard/visa.

You can even do it online. Try e-gold

- Steve

Repair man
(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:05 - ID#411239)
Silverbear, high pressure bottle under the sea
It is true that you would have water at 8000 psi ( or whatever ) , but when you open the valve, it would immediately go to whatever the surrounding pressure was. This is because water is virtually non compressable, unlike gasses. So you would get one very quick burst of pressure that would fade out almost instantly, ...reminds me of some people I know.

The Repairman

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:08 - ID#427357)
ANALYSTS HALL OF FAME: June Spotlight on Frank Veneroso

Each month G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary market commentary and analysis submitted to it. We have two goals in mind in establishing the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT for extraordinary work. Firstly, to formally recognize the generous sharing of the analyst's considerable knowledge and time in preparing thought-provoking studies ( we are talking many long hours of research, analysis and verbalization to perfect an insightful report ) . And lastly, to aid the rapidly expanding golden-eagle readership to zero in on the most outstanding posts in its many webpages ( now more than 700 ) .

The SPOTLIGHT AWARD for June shines on Frank Veneroso for his intriguingly interesting report entitled "Memories of the Souk al Manakh."

The critically-acclaimed and insightful report may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:09 - ID#267344)
weiser - in an audit with no receipts...
one is obligated to pay taxes on the entire sum sold - regardless of actual loss or gain.

Repair man
(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:13 - ID#411239)
Goldie Hawk, ANOTHER'S comments discussed
Could you post the url to the discussion group you referred to earlier.


(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:14 - ID#37292)
$10,000 form info
The form several persons have spoken about is form 8300, for reporting cash transactions over $10,000 resulting from trade or business. While it could be construed by some as conspiracy by the feds to track PM stashes, the reality of it is that it is designed to track cash purchases of luxury items with illicit money ( most of which is derived from drug running these days, so I am told, but would also cover attempts to hide income that otherwise would be ligitimate ) and covers airplanes, cars, boats, jewelry, and most any other thing that costs that much, which of course could include lots of gold. While I don't like forms, I have to be in favor of anything that might ferret out drug money.
The ruling is that a dealer of such items, again including cars, boats, etc., must provide the buyer with a copy of the form, send one to the feds, and retain one when something is purchased in cash for more than $10,000, OR if a combination of transactions that the dealer feels are related, total more than $10,000. ( i.e., buying 9000 worth this week and 9000 worth next week ) would probably be related -- with the dealer being held liable for very stiff penalties if caught doing that. As in a typical case, a car dealer accepts $7500 cash per week for 6-7 weeks and then delivers the new expensive car to the buyer without the form. The dealer AND the buyer are in deep doodoo. But the onus is on the dealer to make that decision whether multiple transactions are related. So, for Weiser, the coin dealer you spoke of in your post was WRONG to ASSUME you might purchase more in the future, but probably had the compliance check as I did and was covering his arse cause he knows they might not be through with him -- not worth the risk because the penalties are severe.

I speak from experience in that I have had the compliance check -- a couple of years ago. This is not an audit, only a compliance check, but very thorough. This was ticked off for investigation in the IRS computer because I checked the box on the 1040 about having a foreign bank account. I transfered $12,000 to a foreign bank twice in a 12 month period to an account in my name, and sometimes advertise in the local papers to buy coins for my collection, which I suppose could look a little suspicious.. BTW, the purpose for the foreign bank account was that we lived and traveled in Europe for a year and had transfered that money to buy a car plus the travel costs of knocking around for that length of time.

But, what did take me back some is that I did not know that my bank had informed the feds of wire transfers to my foreign bank account. To me, this was not cash, but a legit wire transfer of legit funds to a legit bank with proper paper trail. Not to make that mistake again, and the account is now closed for good..

Result: Clean as a whistle, nice guy to deal with, but I wouldn't have wanted to try to outwit him == he had the facts before he showed up.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:16 - ID#432112)
@ GoldieHawk - Warm Fuzzies - I like your posts.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:20 - ID#374204)
Pedro - Tolerant1
Kudos on tonite's best - Pedro's anniversary & WJC s*cks.
Pedro,if I had a custom blown blue bottle, I'd toast to ya.
T#1 - I'm still off to Sinaloa to find one,

So's I can toast you both!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:22 - ID#202123)
Many things to consider. Thanks

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:24 - ID#202123)
Nite to all

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:24 - ID#374204)
BEWARE - everything looks too good for POG right now.
The free enterprise socialists are lurking.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:24 - ID#412172)
Earl, never really left,
was just real quiet for a long while, like on a real short rein!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:30 - ID#227238)
Roebear: I know what you mean. .... 'Tis good to hear from you.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:36 - ID#431263)
Just ran a scan of my 125 gold stocks on TC2000 V.4 and the CHARTS ARE LOOKIN'BULLISH!! The following are all showing BALANCE OF POWER UPTRENDS and RISING MONEYSTREAMS: ABX, ASA, AZC, CCH, CRK, DAY, GGO, GRERF, HGMCY, HL, HM, MDG, NEM, NGC, PDG, TVX, VENGF and SPOT GOLD itself! COPPER is also in a new uptrend! And the DOLLAR INDEX is now in distribution! You heard it right! The uptrend in the US dollar has now begun to break down!

As a result, I want to officially go on record as projecting that a NEW GOLD BULL MARKET in US dollar terms has ALREADY BEGUN and will continue to strengthen well into the new millennium. The gold stocks have been under steady accumulation throughout the first six months of this year and have now got so much buying pressure under them that their price is ready to explode to the upside! The XAU should now challenge the 80-93 level by the end of August and after it breaches that, its momentum will carry it back up to the 110-120 level before a correction back to 93-100! Then the fun will really begin! Yup! The PACK is back in trainin' camp and this PACKER BACKER is now ready to ROLL OUT THE BARREL FOR THE GREEN AND GOLD! Slow at first and then..........WHAMMMO! UP, UP AND AWAY!

Sold off my emerging market fund today and bought BGEIX with the proceeds! Let her rip!

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:36 - ID#267344)
Texasgoldpost - your information was extremely useful - thank you.
I am afraid of you, however - because you obviously support the invasion on anyone's rights in the name of the drug war. I respect your ideas, but I have serious difficulties with such an ideology - I think your statement is rash and complacent ( please forgive me if I have misunderstood you ) . There are many here who will disagree with me on this issue - but I am compelled to respond anyway. Also, it is unfair and rude of me to respond in such a manner and then leave, but I do not have time to stay. Perhaps another day, yes?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:37 - ID#335190)
Lest We Forget @ American Legion founded 1919 & World War I 1914 to 1918
In March 1919 ( 1917 Russia's Bolshevik Revolution ) , the American Legion was founded in Paris with some 463 delegates attending the first caucus. Among them were such future leaders of big business as David M. Goodrich of the rubber family; R.D. Patterson, radio executive; Franklin D'Olier, insurance company official; and Devereau Milburn, wealthy polo player. ( R.S. Jones, History of the American Legion, New York, 1946, pp. 31-32 )

When it was organized, the American Legion needed a quarter of a million dollars. "This money," writes Prof. W. Gellerman in his American Legion as Educator, p.20, "was borrowed from 'friends of the Legion,' not all of them Legion members..."

Among these "friends of the Legion" were large corporations like Swift & Co. under whose letterhead appeared the following addressed to other big business outfits: "A national drive is being made for the Legion and the amount asked for Illinois is $100,000, Mr. James B. Forgan, Chairman of the First National Bank being treasurer of the fund for Illinois. We are interested in the Legion, the results it will obtain and the ultimate effect in helping to offset radicalism." ( As quoted in M. Duffield, King Legion, p.8. )

"To offset radicalism" meant the breaking of strikes of workingmen for a living wage and improved working conditions. And this the Legion did, intervening in a street railway strike in Denver in August 1919, and in Centralia in November, 1919.

No wonder organized labor assailed the Legion; a speaker at the Butchers' Union meeting in Omaha called Legion members "Trained murderers opposed to organized labor"

On the night of Jan 2 1920, 10,000 American workers, both aliens and citizens, most of them trade union members and many of them union officials, were hauled from their beds, dragged out of meetings, grabbed on the streets and from their homes, and thrown into prison by the federal police under the direction of Attorney General Palmer and his aide, J. EDGAR HOOVER. Purpose: seizing aliens for deportation, but thousands of citizens also were seized.

In 1923 the Legion invited Mussolini to speak to its San Francisco convention. In January of the same year National Commander Alvin Owsley declared: "If ever needed, the American Legion stands ready to protect our country's institutions and ideals as the FASCISTI dealt with the destructionists who menaced Italy...Do not forget that the FASCISTI are to Italy what the American Legion is to the United States." ( As quoted in N. Hapgood, Professional Patriots, pp. 61-62 )

This was the same Alvin Owsley who was invited in 1921 to speak before the American Federation of Labor ( AFL ) convention by its top leaders. In that year George Berry, head of the Pressmen's Union, was invited as a speaker to the American Legion Convention.

................World War I July 28 1914

Serbian terrorists have Austrian heir to the throne assassinated

Austrian militarists have been spoiling to enter the wars that have embroiled the Balkans since 1912

German declares war on Russia August 1, and France on August 3. Britain declares war on Germany. Montenegro declares war on Austria August 5, Serbia on Germany August 6, Austria on Russia August 6, Montenegro on Germany August 8. Britain and France declare war on Austria August 12.

........... ( USofA declares war on Germany April 6 1917 )
...........WW I..................ends November 11,1918

The great war has killed -- 1.8 million Germans -- 1.7 million Russians -- 1.4 million French -- 1.2 million Austrians and Hungarians -- between 750,000 and 950,000 British ( *Canadian's ) -- 460,000 Italians -- 325,000 Turks --- 115,000 Americans -- some 20 million have been blinded, maimed, mutilated, crippled, permanently shell-shocked or otherwised disabled.

Take Care

(Mon Jul 20 1998 22:50 - ID#429121)
Before signing off...
Silverbear - What Earl and Ron and the Repairman said. Now, try a practical experiment: Drop a 40 lb boat anchor to the bottom of the gulf - say 200 feet. Now, pull it up. The assumption that "It won't weigh anything to speak of because things are pretty much weightless under water" is not totally correct Been there, done thatgot the bad back to prove it not to mention a few jellyfish stings on my gloveless hands

Grizz - I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but one needs only to look closely at three fairly recent examples of U.S. military action to see how it would react to a domestic "emergency" - Haiti, Bosnia, and Panama. As the U.S. and/or U.N. teams did in these "police actions", they will most likely do at home - slowly suspend certain rights and institute martial law ( including curfews, arrests of suspected "rebel/militia leaders" or other outspoken critics ( with out warrants ) , outlaw public gatherings of as few as three people unless authorized by the military and civil leaders ) , crush the militaristic opposition by whatever means necessary as they begin to retaliate ( pre-defined groups will get hit first ) , ration fuel, food, and other "necessities", nationalize various public systems ( utilities, airlines, naval vessels, railways, etc. ) , restrict travel of civilians by various means, confiscate "caches" of weapons/ammo, restrict all methods of communication ( HAM and other registered radios ) , enlist public icons ( political leaders, actors, and other popular figures ) to call for calm compliance of the "temporary" rules, enlist snitches and squealers to turn in non-compliant individuals, and transmit lots of propaganda by a nationalized media system. Just to mention the obvious ones. If you watched the little Haiti, Bosnia, and Panama actions as they transpired, you could clearly see the militarys efficient system at work. Some of the above inconveniences occurred in the U.S. during WWII. Very educational

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:07 - ID#222231)
Radical solution to Y2K problem??????

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:11 - ID#255151)
Buying Gold

Got it prearranged at my bank to wire funds to a particular PM dealer upon e mail or phone request. I just tell them to wire xxx dollars from my account to the dealers. It's simple, fast, and no account information goes over the internet. Even beats encryption.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:16 - ID#335190)
July 20, 1998

IMF approves Russia loan, urges speed on reforms

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund Monday approved an $11.2 billion loan for Russia but handed over less cash than expected to encourage Moscow to stick to its tough program of reforms.

An IMF statement said Russia would receive $4.8 billion immediately, $800 million less than expected due to "delays in implementing" some of the loan conditions.

Russia will receive the rest of the money -- $6.4 billion -- in September and later this year, provided the reform program remains on track, the IMF said.

The United States welcomed the IMF decision.

The lending agency said Russia would receive the $800 million it withheld on Monday as part of the September loan payment, assuming reform measures are "satisfactorily implemented in the meantime."

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:19 - ID#290232)
Drug Money
Speaking of drug money. I read an interesting article a few weeks ago.
It documented that Thomas Jefferson cultivated thousands of acres of
hemp ( pot ) . Seems he sold the hemp to people who used it to make sail
cloth. Under current laws, this would make Thomas Jefferson a "drug kingpin" subject to execution under US law.

The fact is, you can not turn bad people into good people by banning
inanimate objects be they guns, drugs, etc. Here are a few facts:

1. The farmers of the 1800's were very capable of growing pot, poppies,
and coca. They could have grown all they wanted. There were no laws to stop them. So why didn't everyone who lived during the 1800's end up a drug addict? The reason is simple. Without
laws against drugs, there was no big money to be made selling them.
2. Cocaine is much cheaper now than it was back in the eighties. In otherwords, all the billons spent on the "drug war" have resulted in
more drugs now than we had a decade ago.

3. If the government decided tommorrow that coffie should be illegal,
would you be in favor for putting people in prison who did not obey
the new law? What if they produced statistics that proved that 3000
people a year are killed as a result of driving after drinking coffie to
stay awake when they don't make it to the next exit before their last
cup wears off? Surely you would not be against outlawing a deadly
drug to "save the children".

4. I have a little secret. You don't need drugs to get high. Just pick up
a gallon of premium unleaded and huff away. About 20 huffs will produce hallucinations that put LSD to shame. Should we
outlaw gasoline? You mean you didn't know that gasoline is
a "drug"? I wonder why?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:29 - ID#207145)
Golden Cheesehead
What happens to gold when Asia flares up again?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:34 - ID#207145)
Asia needs to stabilize
Before I can fell sure the Bull is for real...I do think we are in for a run tho.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:40 - ID#286224)
@GoldieHawk - 21:16
Re: #6

"6. I dissagree with him that gold mining shares will not
perform as well as gold. Unhedged mines will do very well
because of leverage."

I believe the point is that Gold will be ss drastically re-valued in paper terms that Goverments ( various ) will need no further excuse to confiscate the ownership or output of the mines; much easier thn trying to rope in all the physical in private hands.

Sounds to unpleasant to believe, just when we hit it big we get hosed again.. but then there is FEMA and "financial" emergencies. As far as other countries go I'm sure they cna think up some excuse as well.

A radical re-valuation of Gold in paper terms is no more farfetched than the collaps of the dollar, and not to many here have a hard time allowing that as a possibility.

Good Luck..

... got Gold?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:41 - ID#57232)
I agree with Blooper - be careful with your gold investing!
Golden Cheesehead: We may have riots in Indonesia by the end of the week. Please keep some of your powder dry, or you may regret it. Gold may take 6 months or more to really begin to move. Until then we may have fitful rallies -- just enough to attract unsuspecting gold bugs. I am bullish too right now, but short/intermediate term. There is still alot of gold to dump if the defenders of the 'fiat' currencies panic. And -- the EURO is too weak to be a real threat to the US dollar unless the European recession ends with a vengeance.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:42 - ID#286224)
Speaking of F * ar- fetched...
How long do these drug treatment programs usually take...? Or is it dependent on the price of Gold?

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:45 - ID#57232)
I think he got his tailfeathers singed
SWP1: My guess is that he lost too much money, and gave up on gold equities. Perhaps he was buying on margin.

PH in LA
(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:51 - ID#225408)
Tony Bull and ANOTHER

Thank you for posting the comments by Tony Bull on ANOTHER's latest post at USAGold. Since you invite comments on what appear to be Tony Bull's personnal comments, the following is my reaction to them:

Mr. Bull begins with the well-recognized Kitco ploy of calling ANOTHER names, ( "He ( ANOTHER ) is basically a gold BULL" ) as if this somehow thoroughly discredits ANOTHER from the start. He then tries to further discredit ANOTHER by asking one who believes that no paper assets will survive a "financial holocaust" why he "doesn't go short on dollars? The net profits will be the same as owning gold!" This failure to understand ANOTHER's point of view speaks further about Mr. Bull's own closed mindset. He apparently cannot even conceive any reason to distrust paper assets. The same mentality precludes his comprehension of ANOTHER's idea that mining companies will one day be threatened with nationalization "for the good of all citizens".

Mr. Bull, immediately after demonstrating the shallowness of his own comprehension accuses ANOTHER of "going on and on to get down to a simple conclusion or belief". ANOTHER does go on and on, about the BIS, international balances of payments, the Japanese and Asian crises, international oil and payments in gold as per the Beruit Accords ( which until he brought them to our attention were not even suspected ) , economic history since WWII, the coming introduction of the Euro, the LBMA, etc, etc, etc. And still, people like Bull don't get it, they only hear him going "on and on". Sounds like LGB's railing against "riddles" that he admitted were beyond his own understanding. Yet, just what is ANOTHER to do? How much does he have to go "on and on" before Mr. Bull even grasps what he is saying? Much less comes to agree with him ( as if ANOTHER somehow needs agreement from Mr. Bull to validate his views ) . As ANOTHER says, "I do not base my Thoughts on the open discussion of "only the one", but on the actual commitments and actions of many." In other words, he doesn't listen to what is said, he watches and sees what is being done and has been done.

Mr. Bull accuses ANOTHER of "touting" that the yuan will not devalue. How this can be interpreted to mean that ANOTHER "has essentially proclaimed that the yuan will be as strong as the USD" is very hard to follow, if not downright nonsense. In any case, Mr. Bull is left gasping "God forbid, this is too much!" as if this trite phrase speaks volumes. Unfortunately, to thoughtful observers, it does not.

Mr. Bull tries to take exception with ANOTHER on the fate of silver. In fact, I recall that ANOTHER has said that silver will perform. However, unlike Mr. Bull, and in keeping with his own self-concept as a "simple man" ANOTHER does not presume to know everything and to comment and compare all potential assets and investment options to gold. He states that "one's assets are always subject to comittment as the moment calls for, as in battle". I do not think that this discredits ANOTHER's comments on gold. On the contrary, knowing one's limits can often prevent serious mistakes.

GoldieHawk, I am sure you are sincere in remarking that Tony Bull should be a regular on the Kitco forum. However, if he ever feels inclined to join us, he will have to offer a far more carefully considered analysis than the remarks you cite in your post of Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 21:16 here at Kitco.

For one thing, his use of inflamatory language such as claiming that ANOTHER "touts" the Chinese currancy would have to be more closely attended to. As should his English grammar. ANOTHER succeeds in the impression that his English is probably a second ( or third, fourth or fifth ) language. Tony Bull's syntax merely serves to reinforce the impression of sloppiness his overall thinking exhibits.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:52 - ID#207145)
If AG soothes the Mkt. We got bond Rally
And that would not be good for gold. Bonds are a little oversold.

(Mon Jul 20 1998 23:55 - ID#207145)
I went 100% cash today.
Now I can sit back and watch "NIFTY FIFTY" get richer and richer. I like being able to pounce. I also like to keep my powder dry. To say nothing of my mascara???