Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:06 - ID#93199)
Looking Good!
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:12 - ID#335190)
Inflation/Deflation ??? @ England (Ernst & Young Item Club?)
Business: The Economy

UK jobless 'could soar'

Many more people could find themselves on the dole

Unemployment will soar to 2m by the next election, interest
rates are set to rise further and the outlook for the UK
economy is bleak, according to a new study by an
independent research group released on Monday.

In a damning assessment of the
state of the country's finances,
the Ernst & Young Item Club
has launched a stinging attack
on Chancellor Gordon Brown
and the Bank of England.

It believes that interest rates
will have to rise to 8.75%, from
the current level of 7.5%, to
head off rising inflation.

The gloomy report was
published on the day the
Chancellor faced a showdown with trade union leaders who
called on the government to inject more cash into the
economy in order to head off recession.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:12 - ID#93199)
Scippi @ Blooper

Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 23:55
blooper ( I went 100% cash today. ) ID#207145:

What Gold Chart are you looking at???????

I'm almost 100% LONG!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:17 - ID#190411)
I ran across this company on goldsheet. They have an interesting site; very well done.
The gist of his message is that pennygold stocks can be profitable, using his methodology.
This is not at all what you would think about junior investing.
It seems to be realistic enough that I bought a program.
Do any of you have any experience with this?
Nick@C might want to look at this, and give an impression.

Go for squillions.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:19 - ID#207145)
How many knives can you catch. If this is it, and i'm a little late, who cares. I've been through this many times. You be the locomotive. I don't mind being the diner.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:21 - ID#255151)
Drug War, IRS, and Y2K

Sounds like the beginning of an off color joke. A few points to make-- 1. If you want to tax drug money, get rid of the income tax and put a sales tax in place. That way, when the rich drug lords buy expensive cars and boats, they pay their "fair share". 2. The price we are paying for the Drug War has been the sacrifice of a Constitutional Amendment or two. 3. The IRS is toast with respect to Y2K. Not a snowball's chance in Hades will the present system survive.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:24 - ID#207145)
I never liked being the point man
on patrol in Vietnam. You are convinced you are on to something. I'm glad to see you're excited. I hope you're right. But I think you're too early.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:32 - ID#24135)
Breakfast in Africa
1. Rand stronger this morning .. 6.18..

2. Disneys First law is on the money ..
41,250/139.2 = 296.3 .. and thats where
August gold trades.

3. Hey .. Whatever happened to IMF Gold Sales ???
When was the last mention of this ?? Now they
need money .. what arent they selling their
gold ?? I have seen no mention of this .. Neither
one way nor the other. Has everyone FORGOTTEN ??

4. Homestake broke up through a solid Down Channel.
No more fun with puts.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:36 - ID#207145)
Asia is the problem
If Asia is over, then the dollar is dead. If not, then it has acouple more months to go. By late October, gold will be on the pad. Also, you could be right. Who the hell knows. That's what makes a market.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:41 - ID#240316)
Calling John Disney - RANGY Break-Up
I've heard that RANGY may liquidate later this year. I've also heard your comments ( much appreciated ) concerning its net asset value. My concern is that in the U.S. one buys RANDY ADR's, and I've heard that with ADR's you can't receive certain distributions such as certain option rights etc. What is the danger to a holder of ADR's if RANGY liquidates and as part of the process distributes certain options it has and/or stocks it owns which are not listed on a U.S. exchange?

Thanks for any info you can provide.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:43 - ID#207145)
AG could spoil gold today
If he says asia is over. Bonds would rally. They are oversold, and gold is up. I believe gold will rally around it's previous high, then fall back. That would cause a lot of trouble for the DOW. Gold will probably rally higher than last high.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:50 - ID#207145)
But Asia is not over
Aug., Sep., Oct. will be filled with booby traps for stocks of all kinds. I do think investors should be looking at gold, Japanese stocks, the Yen, and
maby even small caps and real estate. Investments in the US are at risk now. All paper investments.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 00:54 - ID#207145)
Correction, Bonds would not
rally if AG said Asia was over. Gold would go thru the roof.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 01:12 - ID#411259)
..... Silver Inventories .....

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 20 Silver 83,875,458 - 928,870 ounces.

Fox -
Seems I heard the last of the Wilmington transfers to Republic Bank needed to be accomplished by July 19. When 3 million ozers left Wilmington Last week, the next day about 1.7 appeared again. Look for stocks to rise in a couple days as Republic is reported with COMEX stocks.

That said, it does seem that there are mucho delivery notice acceptances. The next two weeks will see silver blast through $6 or dribble down through $5 again. While, Im not buying here, I suspect the move will be to the upside. 5.65 - 5.75 will offer resistance unless this rally is fueled by more than what we see today; such as another 10 million ozer drop in COMEX stocks.

Gold will not break out this year - barring a severe drop in the Dow. Interest rates will stay low and $s would rather buy all else but gold, it seems.

The PM export decree that will reportedly be signed by Big Boris is an interesting wrinkle for a country obsessed with central control. Something smells here. Since when has Russia let its cash exports fall under any control but Moscows?

The decree does not specify which metals this policy affects. Word until now is that this is aimed at gold. The report says that "Implementation would be controlled by the Finance and Economy ministries". If I am not mistaken, there are still no Ministers for Finance and Economy as yet, and nobody seem to know when these vacancies will be filled.

We heard last week that they will keep their palladium to secure foreign loans. So how will the 5 million ounces of palladium demand be met? With metal in warehouses securing credit? This makes no sense on the face of it, and it makes no sense when you sit down and really chew it over. The only thing that tends to explain this bizarre behavior, is lack of supplies.

This whole Russia thingie is getting curiouser and curiouser.


Rumors of the export decree have been floating about for a couple weeks. The same weeks that PGMs were rising.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 01:35 - ID#257148)
I offer my apologies to you, squire. I should've minded my own business and not got involved. I hope one day I can make it to the bar with you and Ted, indeedy.. ( BTW anyone got any news of that rapscallion? )

There are NO snakes in NZ, we do, however, have more than our share of slimy politicians.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 01:39 - ID#280222)
...midnight muse
Where are the heroes of Iwo Jima..Midway..Normandy..Omaha Beach.. Porkchop Hill...are they dead and gone?... Have their sons forgotten? Were they truly the last of a mighty breed?...Or does their blood yet run true...?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 01:54 - ID#284255)
Feeling Stressed!!
Feeling Stressed!!

Take a deep, deep, deep breath...
Sit back ...

Let your mind wander a bit and clear it of everything....

Forget the world around you ...

Let your arms hang loose ...

Shake your arms a bit ....

Picture yourself near a steam ....

Birds are solftly chirping in the crisp, cool mountain air ...

Nothing can bother you here ...

Smell the soft fragrance of pine, lavender, lilac and roses ...

Feel the breeze gently brushing your face ...

No one knows this secret place ....

You are in total seclusion from that place called The World...

The soothing sound of a gentle waterfall fills the air with a cascade of
tinkling sounds ...

Water dances sparkling over rocks glimmering in the sun ...

The water is cool ... inviting .... fresh

You watch the rainbow of lights reflected from the trout lazily swimming
by ...

Nearby deer and elk graze on the green grass waving softly in the sun

The water is clear .... so very, very clear ...

You can easily make out the face of the person whose head you're holding
under the water ...

There now ... feeling better??

(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:04 - ID#257148)
Much appreciated, yr 16:25 of half a spin ago: The powers of the animal trainer are rarely so elegantly stated.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:04 - ID#284255)
Email chatter: Anybody catch the show????
Nick, my son called a bit ago after watching 700 club. He sure is
convinced now.H e said that most of the program was Y2K. When they ran that
Y2k special, they said that you could call in for a booklet on Y2k. They
had 50,000 calls for the booklet.
Tonight they had the new IRS czar on and the someone from the Senate Select
Committee, and the IRS czar said that quote "The IRS will not be able to
collect 95% of the money, they will only have a 5% collection and that no
one will receive refunds.
The called it catastrophic. They talked about ships and banks and FAA. Wish
I had heard it. He said that there will be massive flight restriction and
said it also was catastrophic and they will be commendering all aircraft.
Electricity and gas, only 2 companies done their research, another has not
even looked yet and more.
They talked about ships too. Wish someone would post on kitco who heard it
Don't forget I did not hear it and am just telling what I have heard now 3rd
Maybe we should check 700 club site and see if anything there.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:07 - ID#433172)
The pyrimid fiasco Albania suffered thru reminds me of the present situation in the stock market. Pretty much the same thing really..bigger fool..if some trick seems to be succeeding thats good enough for lots of people, and how do you argue with success?
At this point in time the games played by the insiders seems to have more effect on gold stocks than any other factor. Mine went down for the mosty part today.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:18 - ID#257148)
Indeed, how can you argue with success? I was thinking, as I drove an uncluttered motorway this morning, being "right" and out of the money is much less satisfying than being "wrong" and coining it.

If right and wrong are measured by our balances: Our balances, and not our intellects.


(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:26 - ID#248180)
Palladium - Russia - Bloomberg Reports
Top News
Tue, 21 Jul 1998, 2:28am EDT

Palladium Falls As Russia Seen Resuming Exports To Boost Currency Reserves
Palladium Falls on Expectations Russia Will Export the Metal

Tokyo, July 21 ( Bloomberg ) -- Palladium fell in Tokyo on expectations that Russia, the world's largest producer, will resume exports of the metal to increase its foreign currency reserves.

Private investors sold contracts in late morning trading, traders said. Investors ignored a report by Russia's Interfax news agency yesterday that the Central Bank proposed retaining palladium for use in space exploration and defense technology, said Akihide Yamanaka, a manager at Asahi Trust Co., a commodities trading company. ``Russia needs foreign cash right now,'' said Yamanaka. ``The market is convinced that Russia needs to export palladium to back loans.''

Palladium for April 1999 delivery, the most active contract, fell as much as 32 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 1,260 yen a gram ( $281.44 a troy ounce ) , its first decline in Tokyo in four trading days. Palladium for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday fell $1.20, or 0.35 percent, to $337.05 a troy ounce. Tokyo markets were closed yesterday for a holiday.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday approved a smaller- than-expected $4.8 billion loan to aid Russia's battered economy, citing the government's failure to take sufficient steps to put its fiscal house in order.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin had hoped the IMF's executive board would approve a $5.6 billion loan after he issued several decrees raising taxes that the Russian lower house of parliament had refused to adopt. Yeltsin also sent a personal emissary, Anatoly Chubais, to Washington to plead the country's case for the full loan.

That effort failed to convince the IMF board that Russia will be able to successfully implement its reform program.

Political upheaval in Russia has delayed exports of palladium this year, leaving Japanese car and electronics manufacturers in short supply. Traders said it remains unclear when Russian exports will resume.

Palladium is used in catalytic converters, which cut auto exhaust pollution, and capacitors used in cellular phones.

Trading volume on Japanese precious metals futures exchanges tends to be heaviest in contracts with later delivery dates. Japanese private investors prefer longer-dated contracts because that gives them more time to alter trading positions, said Minoru Miho, an official with Nikko Shohin Co., a commodities trading company.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 02:33 - ID#388209)
Dear Giant Mouse,

Please repair to the back yard & dawn the proper end of your oracular enhancing spectacles & please advise as to whether RANGY has seen fit to bring their new mine on line ? Are they going to make a profit there yet ?
I know they don't close the Q until Aug 1, but surly you can spy on them from your perch !
Also the chap about the ruddy ADR"S had a ruddy good question about the potential forms of distribution on liquidation for us handicapped folk here in the jolly good ole US of A & it would not go unnoticed amougst us so unfortunately situated if you would kindly give us an accurate & non-obfuscating rattletrap of a reply as to the true answer of same without any such self-deprecating poppycock & horsefeathering about it being beyond your realm of personal knowledge or expertise !

Your Obediant & Truly Blissfully Ignorant Servant,


(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:02 - ID#255151)
NY Post Writer Slams Secret Service

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:03 - ID#24135)
Papaya on a frosty morning ..
For Newtron ..
LOVED your posting .. wish I knew answers to your
questions ..

For Ol Paint/Newtron/Tar-Baby
ADR holders could not receive any options directly
as part of any break up .. But options are not a really
big piece of the asset value ..
If Options were distributed directly .. an ADR
holder's options would be auctioned by the bank that
issued the ADR and you would get money.
However .. Rangold MAY sell the options themselves
before breakup or maybe not break up at all ..
This breakup story is something that brett kebble
was quoted as having said .. I have no idea what his
intentions really are ..
Rangold should issue some kind of quarterly
statement within the next few weeks..
You refer to my perch .. the view to MALI is a
bit foggy lately.. it is a couple of thousand miles
from here. Siama has BEEN operating .. but losing
money because plant changes are being made concurrently.
When I get the results .. YOU will be the FIRST
to know.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:06 - ID#287186)
Mooney - where are you so that I may give you nightbears
Another beautiful person I talked with today. While we were at the bank I made a comment about buying "beans and toilet paper". I saw her a few minutes later at the post office and emphasized I was serious. I still have some credibility with some people - though if Y2K fizzles so will my credibility.
She had heard of Y2K in some TV show ( likely Clinton's speech ) and had gotten the impression it would be some "annoying inconveniences". Thus began my usual rendition of Y2K including its similarity to string of 100,000 Christmas lights.
Maybe I gave her pause to think - and hopefully lay in a few extra bags of groceries. I dared not mention Gold or Silver for I have learned most folks eyes glaze over as they relegate such talk to alarmist hyperbole. Not all, mind you, there is hope out there if one looks for it. But one must nudge these folks with a sort-of half joke first - as in "beans & toilet paper".
They then begin to absorb the media's Y2K news with a bit more concern, eventually they may be amenable to buying Gold & Silver. Even they, regardless of their 5-digit incomes, must attend to the pyramid in the correct order - a foundation of food, water, fuel and other bare necessities of life - then later some Silver and Gold. We must remember Gold won't buy squat when the grocery shelves are empty and bandits wait to help unload new deliveries.
In spite of reservations about spreading the word and thus giving people reason to suspect that I may have my own cache - I still try to influence those who I hope will come through Y2K and help us start over. These folks may very well show up at my door in the winter of 1999-2000. God help me as I can not turn them away. Thus my stockpile grows.

P.S. Freezing cans of chili and tuna-in-oil seems to be going okay - no burst cans. I shall test the contents in a day or two. It would be unwise to buy cases and cases of stuff that won't survive when the heat shuts down.

Roebear - maybe burying a small amount of coins with a good amount of old barbed wire, rusty pipe, tin cans and other junk would help confuse snoopers. Gosh knows we have enough old impromptu dumps scattered around the countryside. Not even fools would risk rooting through such a dump and risk getting a nasty infection when there is no medical care. It might also discourage dumb animals from digging up a small bugout bag - though the metal content of such a bag must be kept low to not prompt suspicion due to metal detectors. What you can hide may depend on how big a dump you are willing to create. Maybe toss in a rusted muffler and some old oil filters. No alternators - since they would have salvage value.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:10 - ID#24135)
Close Quarters
Newtron ..
I think they close the quarter on
June 30 ..

(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:13 - ID#287186)
Sharefin - a wonderful scene you paint
I was derelict in my duty to myself to not get my arse in gear this last weekend and partake of the reality here that your words describe. One small correction though - I would be reluctant to foul the water. A round or two from a distance would suffice to give a little nourishment to the wild critters.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 03:30 - ID#248170)
Dear all
Please accept my apologies for my non-gold related posting ( s ) some time back. It will not happen again.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:00 - ID#206358)
Caution on Obuchi ....

The latest news says that Obuchi is imminent to be the next Japan PM. Many investor caution
about it, and begin pulling fund from Japan and Asia. BEWARE !!!

This is from the local stock forum.....Any comments?welcome

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:32 - ID#255284)
Holy Hazelnuts Batman!

skwirl, now, it's a different perspective you are portraying with your:

"We must remember Gold won't buy squat when the grocery shelves are empty and bandits wait to help unload new deliveries."

than i can see in my Xrystal@~balls.

think i'll go find some sheep to "tend" and thank the lucky stars ( The Southern Constellations ) that we got no snakes. Just political reptiles.

BTW did Loral Man get KO'd by his employers or was it the FDA?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:38 - ID#255151)
Obuchi And Other Stories From Japan

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:40 - ID#255151)
Obuchi retry

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:43 - ID#255284)
Please continue to keep us posted on relevant info from Thailand & SE Asia. I have heard that the recession is extending to Laos, Cambodia & ( can't spell the new Burma ) Myrrmar. Have you heard/read/seen anything about further West, India, Bangladesh, Nepal & Sikkim?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:46 - ID#287186)
Aurator - how many calories and grams of protein in a kilo of hazelnuts?
How many kilos of hazelnuts can I buy with a Silver Maple Leaf?
A blast from the past - with talk of hurricanes & grocery shelves.

Date: Fri Jun 05 1998 11:07
Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265: Argent -- Even better than having so much 'cash' laying about would be to have that much in REAL supplies put away. Don't even count on a store being open or anything being on the shelves if/when you got there! I KNOW from past hurricane type experience that NOTHING out there can be counted on! In the worst of days, one won't even be able to count on their 'precious' to buy food as NONE will be available.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:49 - ID#255284)
call that a company? more like a welfare case
Good to see you up at this hour, this golden hour. I plucked this from your last post:

"It is strange that out of the existing 2.4 million companies in Japan, 1.4 million are running in the red, and we will have to suspect why," said Koichi Minaguchi, adviser for Nomura Research Institute."

Any suggestions as to why more than half the companies in Japan ( The birthplace of the economic miracle ) are running in deficit?

In NZ, any director running a company like that would be personally liable for the debts, makes us sure footed now. kiwis, not looking fo r hand-outs nor free bubbleup and rainbow stew.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 04:55 - ID#287186)
Jeremy - I concur with Aurator
Lend us a perspective from another part of the world.
What is going on there?
And how do your countryfolk view the what is happening elsewhere in the world? We have blinders on here in the USA. We can't see how others see us. Stuff that is big news here doesn't matter squat to the world. And stuff affecting the world and people in other nations that should be big news here never gets a mention.
We need a wider perspective from as many countries and cultures as possible. We/I shall remain in the dark without it.
Thanks for your contributions to that effect.

Aurator: some of the bandits I speak of I know personally. They are okay fellers now but will be cutthroats when they feel free to do so. They will be some of the first targets in my crosshairs.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:06 - ID#255284)
I know you mean well, and that you have a heart of gold, but you sometimes scare_the_beejeebees@_outa_me

Away to count sheep.

Whatever the whether

If I'm fleeced, docked or shawn

I can count on ewe.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:07 - ID#206358)
aurator.....!thanks for the story!
"Burma" is called UNION OF MYANMAR NOW!
Been stay up there for six months,superb peoples,views,pagodas,extraordinary cheap!!But the the political scenes is terrible.Complicated govts,jobless peoples,low wages,slow developements ( except YANGOON DOWNTOWN ) !Unless,the BIG CLEANUP in govt,i still feel sad about the mankind over there!
still,...i love the country!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:07 - ID#269207)
@stressed sharfin'
grab 45 tommy walk out back warm it to your embrace, with a lost 30 rounder, at a lost face, you see clearly thru the smoke and haze...HEY!!
goooooooooooooooooooooooooooo gold

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:13 - ID#255151)

Obuchi is calling the present situation in Japan a national crises. He is calling for a 6 trillion  tax cut ( a little over 40 billion US$ ) . They are going to pull out all stops to stimulate their economy. Trillions and trillions of en will flood the world market. Wondering what effect that will have on US$, Asian currencies, and Gold.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:28 - ID#255284)
"Give them Bread and Circuses" said the Emperors of Ancient Rome, to keep the people calm
Thank you, Myanmar.

What is the mood of the people in KL? How are your friends and family?

Is there hope or despair? Is there happiness or mourning?

THe commonwealth games are due to start in a few months. Are people excited? Please, JIN, the people's feelings about the Games.

Remember, all, the 2000 Olympics are/will be/perhaps/ in Sydney. How is Kuala Lumpar coping with the Commonwealth games? Malaysia's once proud symbol of "making it" in developed nations, to host the Commonwealth Games.


Never underestimate the despondency of the Japanese in defeat.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:49 - ID#255151)
The Right is Slamming The Secret Service

To its great discomfort, the USSS looks like it is becoming a hot political football.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:57 - ID#252391)
The FLood of Yen
What effect the flood of yen to be released with a gigantic tax cut in Japan and the ability of those funds to find themselves inot dollar denominated assets.

Has to be bearish for Yen vs the dollar. But the dollar may be contained by imbalance of trade increases and eventual asset sift from dollars to Euros. Net result: Yen goes to 150, U S interest rates remain unchanged and the stock market continues to rise beyond 10,000. US to the Euro is contained in a 10% range.

Metals rise, slowly at first but steadily higher as money diversifies in metals which are becoming increasingly scarce.

If the Yuan devalues the dollar will jump inititally but pull back as the trade imbalance grows and grows.

This is the beginning of a long term shift of funds to the abandoned precious metals and their derivative trading instruments.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 05:59 - ID#280245)
Friday leftovers spades, shovels and scoops

( 1 ) Friday's FT Survey on Derivatives, or Risk Management as it is now called. The Euro, amalgamating the eleven European currencies is providing banks with same angst, which was hidden behind a mask of enthusiasm for all the new avenues that would be 'opening up': insurance derivatives, expanded interest rate derivatives, expanded equity derivatives, truly a growth industry! There were those, of course, who saw the survey as an argument for Risk Managment by/buy gold. {:- )

Oh yes, there was mention of the fact that derivatives had not taken off in Japan because of the "gambling laws". Yes, the gambling lawsmy goodness!

( 2 ) On Friday, John Disney gave a good lesson in "Disneys Law Of Goldomics":
"Using Disneys 1st Law of Goldomics
ie POG = 41250/yen
One Calculates
POG = 41,250/139.43 = 295.8 actual = 295.1"

I also use this little tool, but emphasize a different syllable, as it were. In my work, it provides an indicator of a currency's "misalignment" or, more specifically, how much the euro needs to be nudged to gain its target to give an example:

On Wed, Apr 9, 1997 the USD gold price was 347.8500; the yen POG was 347.8504; the D-mark POG was 347.8501; the xeu/euro POG was 347.182. [The decimals do not make much difference to the serfs; but they represent basic tools of profits/power to banks and governments.]

The next day, Apr 10, Thursday, they took the XEU gold quote off-line, massaged it back into shape, and re-entered on Friday . They have "pulled" the XEU quotes from the line on a number of occasions, about which more later.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 06:12 - ID#411440)
@all: Kitco has shut down the pm Lease rate site for vacation
break ( until july 27 ) , so I shall not be making my usual contribution
to the group.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 06:25 - ID#280245)
Jims-re: yen and 'liquidity'the yuan and devaluation

In the Mad, Mad, Mad World of Finance, the more the better. Hard to believe but Japan has many times been taken to task for NOT providing liquidity sufficient to allow the yen to function as a global currency. We now know that she intends to do so, not doubt with the advisement of BIS. There are many scholarly articles on this. Interested in some TEDIOUS reading? {:- )

China/yuan/devaluation: All China has to do is wait. In less than five months she will be given a defacto devaluation without lifting a finger or nullifying her pledge to her neighbors. Good politics!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 06:44 - ID#284255)
Dave - Squirrel
We could always imaging BC or MC or JH before we pull the trigger.
No I am a pacifist.
Rather use a blueberry pie.


Congratulation and all the best to you on your special day.

CBN News Y2K Resource Center
Lots of interesting stories.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 06:52 - ID#26793)
Japanese builders vote for Franklin D. Roosevelt

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:01 - ID#26793)
BOJ Governor says he is opposed to inflationary policy

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:05 - ID#26793)
U.S. shouts "Chicken!". Pakistan will get the money it needs to pay U.S. lenders

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:09 - ID#26793)
BOJ says things are going from bad to worse.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:12 - ID#183109)
RANGY answers--give 'em a call?

This page is under development and will be operational by 1 August 1998

For any additional information please contact Dave Haddon at:

Tel ( 27 11 ) 837 0706

Fax ( 27 11 ) 837 2396


(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
Morning gold news from London

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:15 - ID#248180)
@ Scratching Gold Leasing Under-Belly

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:16 - ID#26793)
Cambodian gold shops close out of fear

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:19 - ID#26793)
Kinross-Mirage news

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:21 - ID#289357)
COMEX stocks as of July 20


810,398 Registered
249,514 Elligible
1,059,912 Total ( no change )


41,006,171 ( -609,755 ) Registered
42,869,287 ( -317,115 ) Elligible
83,875,458 ( -928,870 ) Total

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:28 - ID#26793)
Falling resource prices offset Russian-IMF loan benefits

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:30 - ID#183109)
Randgold and Exploration Point of Contact. (earlier post was Randgold Resources)
Randgold & Exploration Company Limited
5 Press Avenue, Selby
Johannesburg 2001
South Africa


Kathy du Plessis
[27] [11] 447-6218 [Voice]
[27] [11] 447-5046 [Fax]

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:36 - ID#289357)
If these prices were only real this morning.... ( :^ ) )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:40 - ID#248180)
Platinum from Russia
C.Bank May Allow for Platinum Exports

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) President Boris Yeltsin is expected to sign a decree allowing commercial banks to export platinum without restriction but not other platinum group metals, the head of the Russian central bank's precious metals department said on Monday.

"The draft of the decree says that everybody can have a license to export platinum, but other ( platinum group ) metal exports should be limited by quotas," Sergei Kyshtymov said at a seminar.

"However, at the first stage platinum exports can be limited by quotas too," he added.

Kyshtymov said that the government had agreed to allow the banks to export platinum as Russia's share of the world platinum market did not exceed 15 percent.

He also said that the central bank had nothing against any quantities of platinum group metals being bought and sold on the internal market.

Kyshtymov said that Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko had discussed the draft decree with representatives of the central bank, Finance and Economy Ministries and Customs Committee representatives last Thursday.

The new decree is to substitute a previous one, signed last July, which allowed banks to export gold and silver.

Until now the sole exporter of Russia's platinum and platinum group metals has been Almazjuvelirexport ( Almaz ) .

Kyshtymov said Kiriyenko had promised that the exporters would be informed about platinum group metals' export quotas for 1999 by Jan. 1.

The sole producer of platinum group metals, other than platinum, is Norilsk Nickel, controlled by the Interros financial industrial group which includes Uneximbank. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 07:50 - ID#206358)
Aurator...commenwealth games?...oh...GOD!
Frankly tell you..the peoples don't have bright side of it!!Though the govt try hard on it!On news,t.v,medias....ect!Still,specially in this period of time,economy is DOWN~~~~!Most of the citizen tight up their belt.....GAMES..we have the live telecast from the box~!So far, i think the org just sold up 20% more foreign's tickets....bad result!i'm afraid by the time being...the ORGANISERS will mess up with the finacial problems again!!The game seem looks gloomy liked currencies and stocks..!
Try to invest and invest ( betting mood ) future and options.Any good ideas and site to refer?Sinec last couples of months,lost quite of
thousands dollars..!!Anyway,...
bye...take care!


(Tue Jul 21 1998 08:02 - ID#284255)
Uncertain utilities
Minnesota Joint House-Senate Task Force on Year 2000 Holds Hearing on Minnesota Electric Utilities and Y2K

A few good articles here. From an expert.
Very revealing.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 08:24 - ID#284255)
From another Fred

(Tue Jul 21 1998 08:55 - ID#373284)
Looking for something to make gold go up...more on jack's ass in OUR White House

(Tue Jul 21 1998 08:58 - ID#373284)
Heil Clintler...NOT!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 08:59 - ID#254269)
test,( had major computer problems)
recently and been travelling. Hope tolerant 1 has kept everyone in

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:10 - ID#373284)
a discussion page on Y2K and food by regular folks like you and me, good stuff...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:17 - ID#373284)
a good idea for do it yourself-ers for Y2K, biggest savings on shipping-things you
can get locally and package on your own:

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:29 - ID#373284)
and to add to the tireless work of sharefin, another giant listing of Y2K information

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:37 - ID#335190)
Updated Tuesday, July 21, 1998 at:
NYC 7:04 a.m. London 12:04 p.m. Prague 1:04 p.m. Moscow 3:04 p.m.

Duma to Reconvene in Mid-August

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) Russia's lower house of
parliament will hold an extraordinary session in
mid-August to discuss the government's
anti-crisis program, Itar-Tass news agency
quoted Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov
( pictured ) as saying.

In a report from Istanbul where Seleznyov is
holding talks with Turkish leaders, Tass quoted him as saying the
Duma would interrupt its summer vacation to resume debate on the
government's austerity plans on Aug. 15 to 20.

Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko's government has been urging the
Communist-led Duma to interrupt its summer vacation and
reconvene next month to reconsider its opposition to key measures,
including tax increases, in the anti-crisis program.

The fate of international credits worth billions of dollars hinges on the
government's success in implementing the program.

Impeachment Body Sets Meeting, Agenda

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) The Russian parliament's committee on
impeaching the president agreed at a meeting on Monday to hold a
hearing on the issue on July 27.

The committee's Communist chairman Vadim Filimonov told
reporters that next Monday's hearing would deal with procedural
questions and study the first point on the indictment drawn up last
month by opposition members in the Duma.

That first charge relates to the agreement in December 1991 by
Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the leaders of other Soviet
republics to dissolve the Soviet Union.

Other indictments range from the use of force in 1993 to dissolve the
Soviet-era legislature and launching the military offensive against
separatists in Chechnya to undermining the nation's health, allowing
the spread of AIDS.

Communist leaders acknowledge the impeachment proceedings, the
latest of many, have little chance of success within a 1993
constitution that stacks the odds heavily Yeltsin's favor.

The president, who began a holiday in northwestern Russia on
Saturday, was invited to send representatives to the committee
meeting on Monday but Filimonov said none had attended.
( ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:39 - ID#377367)
Comex Silver Stocks at New 12 year lows.....
Comex silver stocks dropped 928,870 oz's yesterday, a new 12 year low. Do we hear anything in any other media reports about this ? Nope , nada , nothing . So who is buying the silver? Where is it going?
At what point does this affect the market? Admittedly Comex is not the only game around, nevertheless it is a significant source. Surely you would think the markets would take notice??? Maybe they are asleep.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:46 - ID#280245)
Gold: Under House Arrest?

On Wednesday, April 23, 1997--For 1 Gold ( oz. ) in ECU

"No exchange rates available on: Wednesday, April 23, 1997"

On the previous day, April 22, 1997, the quote was "1 US Dollar = 0.8759 ECU"

While gold exchange quote was held in abeyance, they moved ECU:USD from 0.8759 on April 22

Closed the gold quote on April 23, kept it closed on April 24

And brought it back on April 25, having moved ECU:USD up to

1 US Dollar = 0.8816 ECU

Gold held in check in April on these dates:
!No exchange rates available on: Wednesday, April 9, 1997

!No exchange rates available on: Saturday, April 19, 1997

!No exchange rates available on: Wednesday, April 23, 1997

!No exchange rates available on: Thursday, April 24, 1997

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:49 - ID#335190)
All Is Well @ That Goooood Feeling - Life is grand eh! What's to Worry? Be Positive!
Retail sales advance in May

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Retail sales advanced on almost all fronts in May,
posting a 0.5 per cent increase from April to $20.9 billion.
The broadly based increase followed a strong 1.0 per cent advance in
April which was concentrated in the automotive industry and drove sales to
$20.6 billion.
May was the fourth consecutive month that retail sales increased, Statistics
Canada said Tuesday.

FOCUS-U.S. June housing starts up 5.6 percent

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Construction starts on new homes and apartments soared in June, the Commerce Department
said Tuesday, rising more than analysts had expected.
Total starts rose 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.615 million units, the second-highest this year after
February's 1.616 million. Starts fell a revised 1.0 percent in May to a 1.530 million annual rate.
The June figure was well ahead of the 1.56 million that Wall Street analysts had predicted.
U.S. treasuries edged off early gains after the strong housing data, but markets were focused instead on Federal Reserve
Board Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was to testify later on Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 09:53 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' Hope you had a good trip to where ever. Computers can be
a bummer some gold, silver and WILL make you feel better...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:11 - ID#36977)
IRS rule on confiscating
Presumptions Where Owner of Large Amount of Cash is not Identified AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service ( IRS ) , Treasury.

( f ) Definitions. For the purposes of this section and section 6867--
( 1 ) Cash. The term cash includes any cash equivalents.
( 2 ) Cash equivalent-- ( i ) In general. The term cash equivalent
includes foreign currency, any bearer obligation, and any medium of exchange that is of a type that has been frequently used in illegal activities, as listed in paragraph ( f ) ( 2 ) ( ii ) of this section.
( ii ) Specific cash equivalents. For purposes of paragraph ( f ) ( 2 ) ( i ) , the following are also cash equivalents--
( A ) Coins;
( B ) Precious metals;
( C ) Jewelry;
( D ) Precious stones;
( E ) Postage stamps;
( F ) Traveler's checks in any form;
( G ) Negotiable instruments ( including personal checks, business checks, official bank checks, cashier's checks, notes, and money orders ) that are either in bearer form, endorsed without restriction, made out to a fictitious payee, or otherwise in such form that title thereto passes upon delivery;
( H ) Incomplete instruments ( including personal checks, business checks, official bank checks, cashier's checks, notes, and money orders ) signed but with the payee's name omitted; and
( I ) Securities or stock in bearer form or otherwise in such form that title thereto passes upon delivery.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:15 - ID#289357)
Avalon @ computer problems
A friend sent me this little note on computers this morning....

Men think computers should be referred to as females, just like ships, because no one but the Creator understands their internal logic; the language they use to communicate with other computers is incomprehensible to everyone else; the message 'Bad command or file name' is about as informative as 'If you dont know why Im mad at you, Im certainly not going to tell you'; your smallest mistakes are stored in long-term memory for later retrieval, and as soon as you make a commitment to one, you find yourself spending half your paycheck on accessories for it.

Women think computers should be referred to as male. Heres why: They have a lot of data, but they are still clueless; they are supposed to help you solve problems, but half of the time, they ARE the problem; as soon as you commit to one, you realize if you had waited a little longer, you could have obtained a better model; in order to get their attention, you have to turn them on, and a big power surge will knock them out for the rest of the night.

( ;^ ) )

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:16 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index has turned up again. I have returned to a fully invested gold position. Normally, the summation index accelerates quickly when the trend change is in place. The last time it turned up, we did not get any real upward acceleration. I will be watching for it this time.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have been around 17 issues per day this week. Yesterday they dropped to 7. If this continues for a few days, it is indicative of a turn. Daily readings of 5 or less new lows per day is an all clear signal.

The 20 day ma for gold and the XAU have been broken to the upside.

Kitco posting are slow, so a move is coming. I am in as long as the summation index is rising.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:20 - ID#20748)
The Big Ship Economy
From today's NY Times.

July 21, 1998


The Big-Ship Economy

* Join a Discussion on Thomas Friedman's Columns

[T] here was a funny political cartoon recently,
spoofing the fact that nothing President Clinton
does seems to affect his poll ratings -- as long as the
stock market keeps rising. The cartoon showed a
newscaster announcing that a severed head had been found
in Mr. Clinton's sleeping quarters in the White House,
but with the Dow having reached a new record high the
U.S. public was indifferent.

Lately the whole world has started to remind me of that
cartoon. I half expect Dan Rather to begin the evening
news one day like this: "And here are tonight's
headlines: India and Pakistan leveled each other's
capitals today with nuclear bombs. The Taj Mahal went up
in a mushroom cloud. In Moscow today, Russia declared
bankruptcy and closed for business. In Asia, the Thai,
Korean and Indonesian economies sank into depression,
while in Japan, the country's political leadership was
in such a state of confusion the main headline in one
Japanese newspaper screamed: 'The People of Japan Are
Home Alone.' Meanwhile, OPEC was in disarray today as
the price of crude oil fell again, making gasoline much
cheaper than Diet Coke. But on Wall Street, the Dow hit
a new record high on expectations of higher corporate
earnings. ..."

How long, oh Lord, how long can the U.S. keep thriving
while everyone else is in turmoil? Is America now on
another planet or what? I posed that question to
Goldman, Sachs' renowned market analyst Abby Joseph
Cohen. Her answer: It can last longer than you might

Ms. Cohen argues that the U.S. economy is a lot like a
supertanker -- not the prettiest of ships, not the
fastest, but once it got on the right course, once the
U.S. Government and leading corporations went through
the necessary deregulation and streamlining to get ready
for this era of rapid technological change and global
markets, "this U.S. supertanker is not easily set off
course, and it's the sort of ship you want to be on when
the seas get rough."

Sure, the U.S. must care about what happens abroad, says
Ms. Cohen. After all, America is the world's largest
importer and exporter. But the U.S. economy is so big
that foreign trade is still only 13 percent of overall
U.S. economic activity, which remains "quite robust,"
notes Ms. Cohen. Moreover, U.S. foreign trade is divided
pretty evenly among Western Europe, Asia and North and
South America. So while Asia's on its back, Canada,
Latin America and many Western European countries are
getting stronger.

Also, notes Ms. Cohen, when you look into the U.S.
economy you see that America, for the most part, is not
competing with China to sell stuffed toys or VCR's,
which have become commodities. We aren't even competing
with Malaysia to sell basic computer chips. An
increasing portion of U.S. exports are advanced
technology items or high-level services -- all of which
have a high value-added component and are not easily
substituted by some lower-cost producer. There is no
Korean alternative for Microsoft Windows 98. There is no
Thai version of Andersen Consulting.

Moreover, what is hurting so many other countries -- the
fall in the price of oil and other commodities and the
slowdown in Asia -- helps keep inflation and interest
rates low in America. This combination of falling gas
prices and interest rates has amounted to a huge tax cut
for Americans, and with the U.S. economy now
restructured it can take full advantage of these lower
input costs. Japan, Germany and France, by contrast, are
still hybrid economies. They have some truly
world-class, restructured, globalized companies -- like
Toyota and Sony -- but also a lot of laggards. That's
why America's markets today have replaced gold as the
place many people want to put their money in times of

So what could wipe the smile off America's face?
Everyone is waiting for some "event." But there really
was no event that triggered 1929 or October 1987. What
America is most vulnerable to is actually a subtle,
collective change in mood -- so the next time the market
dives, instead of lots of people buying on the dip, and
therefore putting a bottom under any market fall, they
sell on the dip. Yes, there are some solid fundamentals
underlying America's strength today, and those
competitors and investors who underestimated them have
lost a lot of money. But overestimating can be just as
dangerous. "Strong" and "invulnerable" are two different
things. That's why the only thing we have to fear is the
lack of fear itself.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:20 - ID#373284)
Tyro, Namaste' Ya gotta ask the question...Who controls the IRS? Don't ya?
When did they get soooooooooo much power to become the defilers of the people, the ultimate Judge and Jury...makes ya wonder why even politicians are terrified...right up to Presidents eh...

Sorta like who gets to see the books of the FED, BIS, IMF, who are these people that they operate on completely different rules than the rest of us...

And we get to pay for the privilege of their secrecy...diseased rats one and all they are...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:20 - ID#411259)
..... The Arrow of Platinum .....

There are buyers of platinum here.
No wholesale sell-off with the latest news from Mother Russia.
For a country so enamored of secrecy
They seem pleased to make all sorts of announcements.
Yet, only physical metal will calm fears
Until ingots and bars appear, the arrow points up


(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:24 - ID#426220)
ANALYSTS HALL OF FAME: June Spotlight on Frank Veneroso

Each month G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary market commentary and analysis submitted to it. We have two goals in mind in establishing the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT for extraordinary work. Firstly, to formally recognize the generous sharing of the analyst's considerable knowledge and time in preparing thought-provoking studies ( we are talking many long hours of research, analysis and verbalization to perfect an insightful report ) . And lastly, to aid the rapidly expanding golden-eagle readership to zero in on the most outstanding posts in its many webpages ( now more than 700 ) .

The SPOTLIGHT AWARD for June shines on Frank Veneroso for his intriguingly interesting report entitled "Memories of the Souk al Manakh."

The critically-acclaimed and insightful report may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:24 - ID#284255)
The owner of this site is saying that:
It Will Be Taken Off Line On August 31, 1998.

So you'd better get busy soon.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:24 - ID#57232)
Ron Brown files sealed
tolerant1: Your 8:55 is interesting. We have massive security leaks in Commerce and other Government departments, but Ron Brown's files are sealed. Perhaps we should ask the Communist Chinese for copies since they seem to have better access to restricted files than our own Congress.
How odd. Could it be there is a reason? Perhaps there is some incriminating evidence on someone important. Wasn't our Treasury department investigating the ChinaCommercegate connection?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:26 - ID#373284)
Ladies and gentlemen of Kitco, I present Haber, HABE - all that glitters is not GOLD!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:36 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' No question that jack's ass and the rest of the rats in the current
administration are liars, cheats and the kind that should not be representing the American people. Things are a changing though...It is clear with the many legal battles the rats have lost that they believe the law is something they can mold like clay to suit their greed and less than sworn duty actions...

History does not just happen...we can alter our destiny, we will, and put it back on the course...

God bless America and that part of Mexico where tequila comes from...

It's early of the remaining shots in the bottle of Patron to ya!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:38 - ID#30116)
On computers....
First it was my broker not getting quotes this morning. Now it's Yahoo! that has problems. Greenspan does a Greenspam on the markets. When things get this tough.... The tough go to the beach..........

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:39 - ID#431263)
Inflation sabre-rattling will lead to a big DOW sell-off today! AND a nice upmove in GOLD and SILVER!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:41 - ID#373284)
to the fin that shares, Namaste' getting close to the bottom of this wonderful bottle
of Patron, a shot to ya and your attention to detail...duly noted and I shall send notice to friends to whom I sent it...thanks...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:41 - ID#30116)
On Y2K test....
Perhaps the test on Wallstreet regarding Y2K isn't going so well today? NAH, I think the weather forecast was for greenspam and greenspeak...... Waiting for the final dip in gold. Reality about to set in for the markets. Just as fashions change.... so do investment strategies.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:45 - ID#431200)
Toronto, July 21, 1998 . . . Barrick Gold Corporation today reported a 23% increase in earnings for

Barrick Reports 23% Increase in First Half Earnings - Continued Low Cash Operating Costs

For immediate release

Toronto, July 21, 1998 . . . Barrick Gold Corporation today reported a 23% increase in earnings for the first half of 1998, primarily because of a significant decrease in cash operating costs. The Company also continued to benefit from its unique hedging program.

Net income increased to US$142 million, US38 cents per share, for the six months ended June 30, 1998 from US$117 million, US31 cents per share, in the year earlier period, on revenues of US$601 million compared to US$620 million. Operating cash flow for the six-month period rose to US$244 million, US65 cents per share, from US$222 million, US60 cents per share, in the same period of 1997.

For the second quarter in1998 net income rose to US$67 million, US18 cents per share, from US$62 million, US16 cents per share, in the year earlier quarter, on revenues of US$296 million compared to US$314 million. Operating cash flow was US$109 million, US29 cents per share, compared to US$121 million, US33 cents per share, because of working capital adjustments.

"The strong results reflect the quality of our assets, our innovative hedging program and our focus on productivity improvements," said Paul D. Melnuk, President and Chief Executive Officer. "With rising earnings and cash flow, low costs and unrivaled financial strength, Barrick has a competitive advantage in this gold price environment to pursue new opportunities for growth."

Cash operating costs declined 18% to US$157 per ounce in the six-month period ended June 30, 1998, compared with US$191 per ounce in the same period last year. The Company's focus on productivity resulted in all operations recording lower cash costs over the year earlier period.

Gold production was 1.5 million ounces for the six months ended June 30, 1998, 6% above the comparable period last year. Production at the Goldstrike Property increased 15% to 1.1 million ounces, of which the Meikle Mine produced 495,072 ounces, an increase of 206,905 ounces over the year earlier period.

"We exceeded production and cost targets for the first half and are on track to meet our 1998 operating objectives," said John K. Carrington, Chief Operating Officer.

Goldstrike's Betze-Post Mine is expected to mine higher grade ore in the second half of the year which, combined with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, should ensure that the Goldstrike Property achieves both record production and record cash operating costs for the year.

In the first half, Barrick's hedging program generated US$152 million in additional revenue. The Company realized an average price of US$400 an ounce on its gold sales, a premium of US$102 per ounce over the average spot price for the first six months of US$298. With 10 million ounces hedged at an average price of US$400 per ounce through the year 2000, Barrick is well-positioned in this market to maximize revenue and minimize gold price risk.

Barrick's balance sheet is the strongest in the gold industry with cash of US$389 million, shareholders' equity of US$3.5 billion and a debt-to-total-capitalization ratio of 0.13 to 1, at June 30, 1998. Barrick is the only gold mining company with an "A" credit rating.
Barrick's next low-cost operation, the Pierina Mine in Peru, is on budget and on schedule to begin production by the end of this year. Pierina is expected to produce 750,000 ounces of gold annually at a cash operating cost of US$50 per ounce.

Barrick's shares are traded under the ticker symbol ABX on the Toronto, Montreal, New York, London and Swiss Stock Exchanges and the Paris Bourse.

Certain statements set forth above constitute "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties are described in periodic filings made by Barrick with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities. Barrick Gold Corporation
Royal Bank Plaza
South Tower, Suite 2700
Toronto, Ontario
M5J 2J3

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:47 - ID#373284)
PUBLIC NOTICE - I did not root out HABE, no, no, no indeed. Credit to J. Taylor
for finding what may turn out to be a gem in the rough...the potential is certainly there and even better...millions of lives might be saved through the use of this technology...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:56 - ID#266105)
South African gold share comments

Interview with NICK GOODWIN - 20 July, 1998

AH: Now we go across to Nick Goodwin, our gold guru. Good evening to you, Nick. You've called the gold market
pretty accurately up until now. Can you give us an indication of the way you feel about the market right now?

NICK GOODWIN: Alec, the market is still under-priced and the rand/gold price has made a major difference. I
think I indicated two weeks ago the extent to which gold mines' profits could rise. We could talk about Anglo Gold's
potential just now, but certainly at this sort of rand - R6.10 to the dollar, on which I think the rand will settle
eventually - and the current gold price of 295, the Index should be above 1200. That is without the dollar price
moving, and something interesting about the dollar price is that it's acting very well as far as I am concerned.

AH: So if we talk about the Index at 1200 Nick, and it's 1073 now, thus we're about 10% under-valued still?

NICK GOODWIN: That's right yes. And if the dollar price starts moving - and what's happening there, is it's
actually acting very well. They tried to knock it last week. They took it down to the 88 level, but it recovered fairly
quickly. The other situation is that I think the speculators will start getting disinterested in trying to short the price,
because they can't actually drive it down any further. If they then decide that they are going to start going along,
we just need something, in such a market to spark the price slightly. If that price starts moving, then the shares
will easily move up to the 15/1600 area.

AH: Nick, where do we have such a sharp increase in gold shares? Some overshoot and others get left behind.
Are there any at the moment, that stand out to you as offering particularly good value?

NICK GOODWIN: I think a share that's still very under-priced is Harmony at this point in time. Randfontein is
under-priced, Durban Deep is under-priced and even Anglo Gold and Goldfields  those shares are under-priced
relative to the potential for the next year, especially in Goldfields. There is excellent turnaround potential at those
mines, and those mines were losing money 6 months ago. They are big gold producers. There's been major
restructuring there and I think things are going much better than what they were 6 months ago. We could get a
double whammy, which is a higher gold price and also increased gold production coming through from Goldfields.

AH: We've got Goldfields results, I think it's later this week. I know we will be talking to Tom Dale that evening. Can
you give us any forecast? What kind of profit improvement are you anticipating there?

NICK GOODWIN: Well, I think that the Goldfields Limited Group - the last quarter they were still running at a loss
- I think this quarter they will break even, if not a slight profit, but the September quarters could be substantially

AH: Now why is that?

NICK GOODWIN: Mainly because the rand only started weakening in the early part of June, so that the pick-up in
the rand/gold price from March quarter to June quarter was of the order of 7%, but we're looking now at an
increase of probably 18 or 20% over and above that September quarter.

AH: Were you happy with the Anglo Gold results that came out today?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I think so. The group is very well managed. It's been completely restructured. It's now all
based on a shaft basis as opposed to a mine basis, and the shafts are now all individual business units, which I
think is an excellent idea. Their results are slightly up at the pre-tax level from the last quarter, but after tax, their
results were up quite a bit, mainly because they got quite a lot of recruitment from shafts and so forth that they
had sold

AH: We're going to be talking to Wally Forwerk about that in a moment Nick, so we won't go into more detail on
Anglo Gold. Just to recap though, the stocks that you can still buy  Harmony, Randfontein, Durban Deep,
Goldfields and Anglo Gold. Any you want to add to that?

NICK GOODWIN: No, I think that's it.

AH: Nick Goodwin, our gold guru from Fedsure Asset Management.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 10:59 - ID#57232)
McClellen Index rising
Mike Stewart: You are a cautious seasoned investor, so I take your bullish approach very seriously. I am now 30% long in precious metals stocks for the last 10 days or so.
What worries me is another currency crisis -- most likely from a pending Japan fallout -- with another bearish run on gold like Oct 97. I doubt that gold would drop that much again percentage wise, however.
My question to you is this -- most of our collective experience with gold equities has been during inflationary times. This time deflation ( in US dollars ) is a major concern, so the significance of certain key indicators such as the McClellan index or the commodity price indices might correlate with the price of gold differently. For example, in 1993 the commodity price index rallied before gold did, despite the fact that between 1980 to 1900 or so, gold lead commodities. Right now commodity prices are still dropping, though I think the JOC is bottoming, and Texas crops are hit very hard with the heat wave.
Comments? Thanks -- your insight clearly places you as one of the best contributors to this site. If you would indicate how much of your liquid assets are in gold equities/funds that would help considerably.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:01 - ID#43460)
Results of forward selling? SWC still dragging bottom but passing the shoals.
Looking at these figures we can see a great missed opportunity to sell palladium at much higher prices. One would hope that these hedge positions play out sooner or later. Until then SWC must hobble along with its present level of profits. IMHO ( Remember I'm not an analyst nor advisor merely an investor with some stock in the company, hence an interest in watching its news. With the good ship Goldbug hard aground the privateer SWC is at least dragging out of the harbor this summer. beats watching barnacles grow. )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:03 - ID#242325)
ZBR: Thanks for posting that Nick Goodwin interview on SA gold shares! Now I know where John Disney gets his info.

Gold shares holding up quite well today with bullion down a buck.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:06 - ID#35571)
Hi ho, Silver!
Silver is starting to look very interesting. May see some action here in the next few minutes or hour or so.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:07 - ID#335190)
All Is Well @ Not To Worry eh!
July 21, 1998

Greenspan says US economy impressive, faces risks

WASHINGTON, July 21 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the U.S. economy was impressive, but faced the opposing dangers of rising inflationary pressures and a possibly severe drag on growth due to Asia's crisis.

In his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to U.S. lawmakers, the central bank chairman said the risk of a pickup in inflation probably outweighed the threat posed by Asia's financial troubles. He warned that the Fed may have to raise rates if the economy did not slow down on its own.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:08 - ID#426220)

"Deutsche Bank officials had upgraded the likelihood of an economic downturn from 60 per cent to 70 per cent, with a forecast drop in US GDP of 6 per cent." DB's grim forecast for the US is related to the looming Y2K problem fallout.

Can anyone recall the last time the US drop in US GDP of 6 per cent???!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:11 - ID#35571)

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:11 - ID#335190)
Three explosions shake Macedonia

SKOPJE, Macedonia ( AP ) -- Three strong explosions -- nearly simultaneous -- shook the Macedonian capital and two locations near the Yugoslav border early today, causing considerable damage but no injuries.

The Kosovo Liberation Army, which is fighting for independence for the Serbian province of Kosovo, claimed responsibility for a series of explosions in January in Kumanovo and two other Macedonian towns populated by ethnic Albanians.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:11 - ID#262351)
I owned FSCNY. Now, for some reason I own ANGDY instead. ANGDY is not listed on the OTC, but I can sell it. Does it move the same way as ANGLY? Thank you for any opinion on this stock.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:12 - ID#284255)
An amazing compilation of search engines++++

What's up with the weather?
Today Queensland is averaging 12 degrees celcius above normal.
And this in the middle of winter.
Some how I wonder what our next wet season will bring.
All the mangoes are in full bloom - two months early.

Sitting here in the middle of winter @ 25 degrees C
In the middle of the night and sweating.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:23 - ID#335190)
Law and Order @ Right ?
Former law and order minister: President Botha ordered church HQ bombing

PRETORIA, South Africa ( AP ) -- Former South African president P.W. Botha ordered the 1988 destruction of a church headquarters, saying it was used by black activists and had become "unholy," his former law and order minister testified today.

Vlok, who was law and order minister at the time, is also applying for amnesty for the bombing of the Congress of South African Trade Unions headquarters on May 7, 1988, and a series of bomb blasts at theatres showing the film Cry Freedom, starring Denzel Washington as slain anti-apartheid activist Steve Biko.

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:25 - ID#28586)
@NJ and "How much longer can it go on?"
The answer is: not much longer.

I am ashamed and disgraced that MY nation, America, is now controled by the lowest criminal classes, who present themselves as our "leaders".

I am ashamed and disgraced that in MY nation we now ignore the gathering tide of political evil from DC, turning off our reason & intellect -- fixated instead on the on-coming headlights of our fantastic stock-market winnings, our plush retirement paradise, just waiting for us to cash-in. Fools! Do you think you'll ever see that money?

I am ashamed and disgraced that MY nation, America has "strip-mined" the rest of the world's money, handing out happy-faced IOUs called Treasury Notes that will never be repaid and "dollars" that are worthless.

I am ashamed and disgraced that in MY nation, America, too many female journalists laud, praise and EXCUSE the venal, corrupt, sexually abusive & manipulative behaviour of our Dear Leader in DC. "He's doing a great job! Who cares about anything else!"

Where is that popinjay Pangloss, LGB? "This is the best of all possible worlds", eh, LGB? -- we Americans, deluded, live high on the hog we have created out of world-wide financial slavery. The rest of the world's people are just so much stupid cattle, whose only lot is to service us, the Borg-American?

When the rest of the world rises up and repudiates American financial slavery, our end will not be enviable. The cabal in DC no doubt are ready for martial law here, having perfected their technique in dry-runs in Haitai, Somalia and Bosnia...

When the Indonesian common man, the Thai, the Malaysian, the Japanese, the Russian common man, the Taiwanese we have sold to the Chinese Communist thug-lords, when they all are finally so ragged-out & abused supporting our glorious little Imperial American financial love-fest -- then it will end.


(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:39 - ID#35571)

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:40 - ID#35571)
Look out, shorts!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:41 - ID#258427)
What are you basing your silver move "in the next few minutes/hours" on?
Go Silver

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:43 - ID#35571)
Just the seat of my pants. Look, it's come up 3 cents already.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:44 - ID#209265)
Hey gang- go on over to . . .
Orlin Grabbe's latest article on gold markets.

This one explains the relationship between interest rates and the POG.

- Steve

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:47 - ID#35571)
The London market closes in just a couple of minutes. The real test will be to see if goblin is home today.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:49 - ID#258427) must be a genius
look at silver up 5 cents...grin thingie...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:56 - ID#35571)
Look at that stuff go! Up 8 cents and climbing. Goblin's got a real problem on his hands. Just think just this morning you could have bought Hecla as low as 4 7/8.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Jul 21 1998 11:59 - ID#344225)
I agree with your post 100%. This administration is filled with people
who should be in jail.

What must prisoners be thinking when they can clearly see that our leaders flaunt the law with impunity.

Many men & women are now confined to jail for misdeeds that are far less than those that have been committed by leadeers of this corrupt administration. I think Clinton and his cronies have "bribed" the vast amount of the American people.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:03 - ID#35571)
Now a dime up! Goblin is in a panic. Who'll give me fifteen?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:03 - ID#335379)
Tolerant One, and the evil among those that should have honor in DC
Hello Tolerant: I could have mercy if indeed the disease of these rats was an uncontrollable fate. However it seems to me that the evil dread that has come upon them is one that is the result of many bad chioces of both them and we the people. The putrification proccess has not yet reduced them to the stage that befalls all wickedness, that is to the point of complete inability to propound more
evil. Because evil must always steal from the good, good, sooner or later no longer provides life to them that do evil. There is a limit. Unfortunatley once the cycle has started, it is very hard to reverse. History has few examples of turning back and repairing what is right. Turning from evil is afforded to all, but few chose it.
On the subject of starting a new country else where, I too would like an opportunity
to make a new free land. Alas I am but one and not skilled in the building of nations. But I could build a city.
"I look forward to a city not made with human hands, lined with gold and the river of Life runs through it".
With Honor:

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:04 - ID#347235)
Your messages make me wish I had the equivilent dollar amount of silver I have in gold!!! Hopefully the yellow stuff will move soon by the same percentages and we can all ; ) ) ) ) ) ? How the wife? Better every day I hope?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:05 - ID#24997)
PH in LA re. your post July 20, 23:51
I was chocked after reading your post last night. I did post Tony Bull comments at 20:16 hoping for some comments and get some professional point of vue on the subject from the experts on Kitco, I was hoping to get a conversation going because it has being a little boring of late.
What I didn't expect is a personal attack on Tony Bull and judgment of his personality and grammatical skills.
I don't want to start a conflict here, I am a simple man, I have just retired and I am enjoying my extra time by lurking at many discussion forums, Kitco is one of them. I am heavily invested in gold mining companies and I am counting on a bright future of the POG or I may have to go back to work some day. English is my second language, I learn't on my own, so sometimes I may not sound too educated as some of you, I could write better in French but it wouldn't make much sense to most of you.
My first instinct was to reply to you but I refrained myself and send a copy of your post to Tony and let him reply to you. I think he did a super job and shown professionalism in his reply. Tony's comments are always appreciated in the Yahoo's boards and many people were upset at your personal attacks against him. I respect different opinions, but I disrecpect anyone who feel they have to diminish someone to get their point across. And this is a big weakness in this board I am afraid to say. You may know each other and joke around but the put down of the writers are innapropriate, and they keep some very smart people out of this board I am afraid.
Anyway, this is Tony's reply to your post PH in LA :

...Interesting response from PH in LA,

He was offended when I called ANOTHER a gold bull.
If he prefers "gold bear"... it is fine with me.

The possibility of gold stock confiscation is
unrealistic as this has not happened yet, even from countries like Russia or Indonesia which lately have
experienced severe economic dislocations, including riots. On the contrary, gold mining companies continue
to operate in those areas. If PH in LA thinks that worse
things can happen in NA and this deters him from investing
in NA mines,.... it is fine with me.

If PH in LA thinks that governments will confiscate gold
mining certificates, but will allow him to hold the hard
metal, he may be very surprised when he finds that this
happened the other way around, but... it is fine with me.

He criticizes my writing style and my inability to
express myself, I do apologize to him as English is not
my mother language. I do however try hard to master my 4th
language and will do my best to complete my doctorate in
English so I can communicate with him to a level which
meets his expectations. Needless to say that he and I have
engaged in many conversations when I was posting regularly
at Kitco under a different handle. My writing style never
bothered him then, and,... this was fine with me!

My statement that ANOTHER "goes on and on", is true. He
does, - others have also said so. Some posters prefer
to be concise, others prefer to expand. No reason for PH in
LA to get defensive about an opinion shared by many. If
this comment of mine bothers him... it is fine with me.

Regardind the yuan devaluation. ANOTHER has a different
opinion than others,which,... it is also fine with me.

The link of oil to gold is not a new issue, it existed
back from the energy crisis days. If PH in LA received
his education from ANOTHER on this issue JUST NOW, is fine with me.

I am so glad he found me to direct his frustrations. If
this made him feel better...



PH in LA I am not trying to antagonize you or any other by my remarks, I do enjoy lurking and sometime posting on this board. I don't enjoy personal attacks and it has been too many in the last three months, perhaps this is what makes this board so addictive, I don't know. If I have offended you in any way I apologize, I didn't meant to. I am not very good at expressing myself in English this is why I use other's posting to convey an idea.

Best regards to all, I do enjoy the reading of Kitco.


(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:08 - ID#410198)
6pak...whats your point on the South African story.....the current President did the same thing,one
mans hero is anothers terrorist

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:10 - ID#35571)
Wife is doing fine. Good luck with gold. There is a real battle going on longs versus shorts in silver. Hand to hand, man to man. Up a dime, now nine, now ten again.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:11 - ID#258427)
Well said!! Peace...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:14 - ID#335379)
Spud Myster:
Hello Spud Sir:
Thank you for getting that off of both our chests!
We in the US are as slowly boiling frogs, when the heat gets to hot we will already be to imobalised. Fight or flee now while we still can.
May their scumbagery be exposed and may we the people give more than a hoot.
Nicodemus, still excited about finding truth, even if it means getting out our dirty laundry.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:16 - ID#373284)
Nicodemus, Namaste' I'll drink to that, a gulp to ya...however, I don't think we have
worn the tires off the good old USA yet...the Internet has been a tremendous tool in portraying the lies and deceipt of jack's ass in the White House...and a media which thinks that all the people are dumbed down fatuous idiots...

It ain't over until its over eh...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:19 - ID#258427)
Silver moved into backwardation
( or however you spell that word ) ...Spot is 5 cents higher than the near future contact...5.53 vs 5.49....Sounds like it's getting tight, eh??

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:20 - ID#7568)

Back from vacation and ready for a little silver bear hunting.

Some new and interesting developments in the silver market. First off, Goldman is apparently still long more than 1/3 of outstanding Comex warrents. As of yesterday they were reputed to have been buyers of between 5 and 10 million ounces of 560 calls ( OTC ) expiring on the same day as the Sept Comex calls. Today, the game has gotten a bit more serious in that Republic Bank ( the sole managers of ALL remaining Comex silver warehouses ) has reported been in the market to borrow 30 million ounces of silver.

It is very interesting that Republic is taking part in what appears to be shaping up as a big time squeeze. If Goldman is going to do anything funny, like remove 25 million ounces of Comex silver, guess who gets to watch it go out the door? That's right, it's Republic.

Somewhere around the 200 day moving average ( 570 or thereabouts ) this baby could get some real legs. If the big trend following funds, which are short to the tune of around 100 million ounces, are forced to cover, we could see an explosive move. If you want to dream a little, consider that because they are system players they will also eventually get long, and one can see very short term demand for something on the order of 200 million ounces of silver.

It may all be over in the blink of an eye.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:23 - ID#270253)
As a technician, I am looking at what is happening , not why. Generally, I don't have a clue until it is over. I look at price, volume, breadth etc. The McClellan Summation index is the slow moving breadth indicator. If gold shares are rising as an unweighted group, so is the summation index.

Examples of extreme levels ( eg below -1300 or even -2000 ) are better researched in the NYSE general market arena where numbers are readily available back to the 1960's. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles has it back to the 1920's, I believe. They have a web site, you will have to do a search to get it.

I let the market tell me what is happening. Then I don't have to be clever enough to figure it out.

Currently in my partnership, I have 40% gold shares ( GLDFY,HGMCY,DROOY,RANGY,DRFNY,NEM,GSR,SWG and BGR Precious Metals ) , 40% general equities ( turnaround situations ) and 20% cash. The general equities have carried me well as we are up 32% this year, and are
gradually being sold.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:26 - ID#258427)
So much for backwardation
Future silver just jumped 8 cents to 5.555...go silver ...go gollum..

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:29 - ID#35571)
Let's see what happens now.
Goblin's first attempts were puny. His last chance comes in the next half hour or so. London markets are closed and it's getting to be lunchtime in Chicago and not all the guys are back from lunch in NY yet.

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:40 - ID#28586)
You wrote: "still excited about finding truth, even if it means getting out our dirty laundry."

The "press" and Hollywood have worked **VERY** hard over the past years to convince the American public that the truth ( aka "dirty laundry" ) is negative/attack-oriented. Believe the happy-happy, goody-goody Party line and all will be well.

In order for their control to be complete, there must be no dissent, no criticism, no questioning...

... everything must be "positive".

Consequently, many Americans live in a sort of fear of speaking frankly and truthfully, for they fear they will be labled "negative", with the concommitant social abuse following.

Consider ANY political advert that presents the loathsome but true behaviour of the opposition -- CBS, CNN, ABC journalist & talking mouths can hardly wait to pronounce them "negative or attack" ads -- they did quite a number on Steve Forbes commercials. Forbes must have scared the sh*t out of the Washington DC cabal -- why else would Clinton direct his boyz to "help" that doddering old fool Dole?

In this way, our "leaders", the lowest criminal class stop rational thought and skepticism that would bore through the B*** SH** lies & disinformation we are assualted with daily via television, radio, movies.

Think about it: how many times are you castigated and ostracized for being critical these days?

Spud, 1776 Now.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:47 - ID#434108)
SILVER ready to 'scream' to the up-side/re-emphaizing my last Sunday's post, 7/19/98
Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 15:14
goldfevr ( Silver's bull-market, has been previously identified. ) ID#434108:
From 7/19/98 post, at 22:33; regarding Silver's bull market.
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


Return to Kitco Homepage

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:47 - ID#57232)
The Weather -- really hot where I am too!
sharefin: I thought you were supposed to be immersed in the La Nina by now. Cool and wet was what I expected. Perhaps the El Nino is still active, and the La Nina was a flash in the pan only.
By the way, our midwest is in a heat wave -- worst since 1980 where I am. Texas is much worse, however, with many farmers crops wiped out, and many reservoirs down to 10% levels. Some water suppliers are threatening to cutoff the farmers comletely to conserve drinking water. Water tables down 20 feet or more since January. Bad sign, since we still have nearly two weeks of July, all of August and September before things cool off. Was driving through town, and nearly suffocated from a gust of wind blew a cloud of soil over our car. Our locale is still green, however, though lakes are low.
I wonder -- the parallels with the thirties bother me. The weather connection is certainly a significant part of what is happening to us. Probably the simplest way to explain it is that bad weather of any kind raises the cost of any product that depends on the weather. And -- if prices do rise ( not yet anyway in Texas as far as I can tell ) they do not benefit the Texas farmer whose crops were wiped out. Calif is getting a big heat wave too -- central Southern Calif. Lots of crops there. Sacramento Valley, Imperial Valley.
Did you know that we had thousands of tons plus wheat rotting on the ground last year in the Midwest because the UP - Sante Fe RR computers are incompatible? The new RR in this area -- after the merger -- is less capable of handling the volume of traffic than the two separte RR's! Two years, and their computers still can't talk to each other. Farmers here are now talking about storing their wheat locally. Hope they have some to store.
On a more personal note, in the last two weeks the heat has apparently caused the failure of all 4 of our ( all used ) cars, as well as our central air. We need 2 working cars at all times, so the other 2 are backups. Quite a surprise when we became carless -- first time for us in over 20 years. The reason I brought this up is that it shows what must be happening wherever the weather is unseasonably hot -- a drain on our respective economies.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:47 - ID#57232)
The Weather -- really hot where I am too!
sharefin: I thought you were supposed to be immersed in the La Nina by now. Cool and wet was what I expected. Perhaps the El Nino is still active, and the La Nina was a flash in the pan only.
By the way, our midwest is in a heat wave -- worst since 1980 where I am. Texas is much worse, however, with many farmers crops wiped out, and many reservoirs down to 10% levels. Some water suppliers are threatening to cutoff the farmers comletely to conserve drinking water. Water tables down 20 feet or more since January. Bad sign, since we still have nearly two weeks of July, all of August and September before things cool off. Was driving through town, and nearly suffocated from a gust of wind blew a cloud of soil over our car. Our locale is still green, however, though lakes are low.
I wonder -- the parallels with the thirties bother me. The weather connection is certainly a significant part of what is happening to us. Probably the simplest way to explain it is that bad weather of any kind raises the cost of any product that depends on the weather. And -- if prices do rise ( not yet anyway in Texas as far as I can tell ) they do not benefit the Texas farmer whose crops were wiped out. Calif is getting a big heat wave too -- central Southern Calif. Lots of crops there. Sacramento Valley, Imperial Valley.
Did you know that we had thousands of tons plus wheat rotting on the ground last year in the Midwest because the UP - Sante Fe RR computers are incompatible? The new RR in this area -- after the merger -- is less capable of handling the volume of traffic than the two separte RR's! Two years, and their computers still can't talk to each other. Farmers here are now talking about storing their wheat locally. Hope they have some to store.
On a more personal note, in the last two weeks the heat has apparently caused the failure of all 4 of our ( all used ) cars, as well as our central air. We need 2 working cars at all times, so the other 2 are backups. Quite a surprise when we became carless -- first time for us in over 20 years. The reason I brought this up is that it shows what must be happening wherever the weather is unseasonably hot -- a drain on our respective economies.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:50 - ID#207145)
Puzzeled over direction of Gold?
Which way will the dollar go 2nd half---minus Asian episodes = profit in gold. Now how complicated is that. Use Asian dips to buy. Or wait till they're closer to being over.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:52 - ID#372228)
JTF @ 10:59 - Gold and Deflation
As another observer, I would see both inflation and deflation in the next several years. Deflation on the goods and services side ( from Asia ) and Inflation on the currency side; when the US$ comes back home from Europe and Asia. The politicians want you to believe that we have no inflation. That the US$ is king; that gold is dead; that Alan Greenspan is our savior; and that Asia is not a problem. But the fact is, we as ignorant Americans will get hit with a mountain of US$ debt, sold to the world, very soon ( in the form of US Treasuries ) , as it is redeemed for the Euro$. The true definition of Inflation is the creation of money without an asset base to back it. We have been doing this for years and the world has eagerly snapped it up, helping us to hide the inflation which has been going on in the USA.

As far as Deflation, you will see heavy deflation in the coming years, as the Asian Crisis worsens and the imports keep rolling in. Lower prices beget lower prices as competition from US firms to keep market share heats up. Then, as the economy slows, because profits from companies slow, prices will drop even faster as companies scramble to clear inventory at any price. Then as the indebtedness of the average man becomes to much for him, massive liquidations will occur, forcing prices even lower. Commodities ( basics ) will continue their downward spiral ( as they are now ) because the world markets are "Not Buying". Interest rates will fall because no one wants to or can borrow money.

As currency inflation kicks in, assets such as real estate, gold, silver, will sky rocket with people bailing out of the US$ into something tangible ( of Value ) .

If you believe that this is not possible, look to Mexico, Latin America, Indonesia, etc. This is exactly what happened to them...we have the pattern...we just don't want to believe it...until it is too late...Like in Mexico when the bank devalued the Peso from 5/US$ to 2850/US$ in 2 weeks. The value of Gold went up in value 570% in Peso terms in 2 weeks.

Sometimes, when you are sitting on top of the hill, you can't see the sink hole under it until it falls in. Maybe it is time to TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:54 - ID#207145)
A sudden bout of profit taking
Will come after this sucker rally, to get retail money. Oil and gold will not fare well in this sudden down draft. Of course it won't happen till there is profit on the table.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 12:59 - ID#207145)
I see rosy prospects
For gold and European equities. And Oil. Gold first, then oil. Europe will be helped by the Euro. Bet Japan can't wait.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:00 - ID#207145)
Clinton Admin. has po'd Japan.
They will be dumping US$ fot EUROS.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:02 - ID#434108)
the fire, next time//JTF @ 12:47
I appreciate your sharing your experience, the reality of your life.

( imho: )
The earth is revolting
being revolted at our collective greed.

Weather extremes - baking Texas
Sunami's in the S. Pacific
Eathquakes increasingly world-wide
and eager
to rumble

Extremes in valuations
of internet stocks, new-issues;
p/e ratios of the dow/s&p/nasdaq pushing against the limit
of reality...

these are the fooder
and grist for the mill

of a new chapter, for humanity, civilization, and gold

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:03 - ID#207145)
Japan dumping US$ for Euros. They can only take so much s*it from Rubin, Clinton.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:05 - ID#207145)
I think you are right on. The dollar has had it, except when the going gets rough. That is what bothers me. Do you buy the dips ( Asia ) , or wait it out ?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:05 - ID#57232)
Thanks! And -- thanks to Bart Kitner
Mike Stewart: Appreciate your post. I am currently 30% gold stock mutual funds ( FSAGX, FDPMX ) , about 20% in retail equities, and 50% short-term US treasuries. I have been trying to merge technical trading with major news such as currency crises. Still learning. Probably the biggest lesson I have learned is that the general equities market does not respond to bad news the way I do. The market response to bad/good news is cyclical, and must be learned. Most of the stocks I have chosen doubled or tripled, but I had sold them reacting too strongly to the negative news. Only have really done well with gold mutual funds for some reason, as long as the gold market is steady or rallying.
I now have effectively been through one entire economic cycle in the US. I remember one guru I read once who said that until you have done this, you really don't know how to identify each part of the cycle. Thanks again for letting us know what you are doing.
I have learned more on Kitco about the markets in the last 9 months than in the previous 2 years on my own. Thanks again, Bart for making this all possible.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:07 - ID#251166)
ANOTHER didn't say anything about the dollar and SILVER rising together, did he? :- )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:07 - ID#35571)
Goblin's losing.
Now eleven, who'll give me fifteen, I say, who'll give me fifteen?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:09 - ID#35571)
He's not down yet.
Goblin's fighting back. Now down to eight.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:10 - ID#252127)
Richmont Mines is the best run NA gold producer

P/E @ 11.7, P/CF @ 2.77, both projected forward based on the past six months.
This company has NOT HAD a negative annual earnings for six straight years.
It has cut its long term debt in half and increased its cash reserves by almost 2 and buying back its own shares.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:11 - ID#207145)
I am happy to be 100% cash today, but
I think I will comit 25% to Gold, at least thru the Japanese election. If all looks well after tomorrow ( another down day for stocks ) , I may add some Europe to finish the rally.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:14 - ID#434108)
inflation/deflation// trader__vic__A...@ 12:52
Thank-you for your insight/perspective.

Did you see the current Barron's article/interview
with "Genesis Partners' -- "The Next Wave"...?

Inflation-returning, seems to be the outlook,
of these analysts/managers.

Bank Credit Analyst publishes...
"velocity of demand deposits".

VELOCITY/turn-over .... charts,
reveal the key to whether inflation, or deflation...
will ..... 'rule the day'.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:15 - ID#207145)
AG seems to agree that
the next direction for short term rates is up. Inflation- not deflation, will be our problem.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:18 - ID#207145)
Deflation will
Be a longer term problem, of course.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:22 - ID#335190)
robnoel @ 12:08
robnoel: You made the point " one mans hero, is anothers terrorist"

RE: "Former law and order minister: President Botha ordered church HQ bombing"

Considering, you are a Law and Order type person. What can we learn from an appointed/Elected Official that demands that his office has the right to attack the people via Bombing Church/Union/Theatre.?

I expect that these type of Democratic/Liberty/Freedom type's, are supported by not only this Elected USofA President, but, in fact has been the game plan of most USofA Elected President's.

From my view, the USofA Corporation are your and my Economic slave Master, as these Coprorate Multinational, Progressive Internationalist's, are represented in your and my government. Yes, the mind set of USofA corporate elite, are destroying your free country, as they are destroying Canada.

Soooo, expect that bombing church/union/theatre in USofA/Canada will/have been a tool for the "LAW and Order" type in our respective communities, as these type's existed/exist in 1998-1988-*1920s. ( Waco,Ruby Ridge eh! )

Questions for you.
Are you a supporter of this type of Law and Order?
Are you a supporter of your present Corporate elite rule of law and order?
Are you a supporter of the continued "RED SCARE"?
Are we tough enough on welfare bums?
Do you expect there is such a being, as Corporate welfare bums?

Consider this. And you suggest, that some USofA president is KING.
( Washington, Parasite central 90,000 lobbyists, 60,000 lawyers, 20,000 on the congresstional payroll )

Thanks Take Care.

Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 22:37
6pak ( Lest We Forget @ American Legion founded 1919 & World War I 1914 to 1918 )

Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 20:52
6pak ( Grizz @ 19:25 ( Lest We Forget ) ) ID#335190:

Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 19:25
Grizz ( If they can sacrifice hundreds to bolster their anti-American power )

YES, "We are screwed!"

Flushed with victory, President Hoover issued a proud and ringing statement. "A challenge to the authority of the United States has been met swiftly and firmly," he said. "After months of patient indulgence, the government met overt lawlessness as it always must be met...The first obligation of my office is to uphold and defend the Constitution and the authority of the law. This I propose always to do."


Law and Order EH! I suggest, you direct your attention towards Corporate USofA. Forget about your Elected President. Like Canadian's, our elected representative's are but lackey's for the USofA corporate agenda. Why would the USofA citizen not also expect that their respective leadership are also lackey's for the USofA corporate agenda.??????????????????

Thanks again. A view from a different direction eh! Gold IS under CONTROL, no surprise!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:27 - ID#242135)
AG`S COMMENTS...............

Big Al is at it again with his rhetorical comments. We are now entering a deflationary cycle, caused by Asia that will get worse before it get`s better! AG is talking about inflation to try and keep this out of control "bull" market under his limited influence.Now some people will worry about increased rates, but the opposite will happen. UP, Up, & AWAY!!!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:28 - ID#434108)
6-pak@13:22: brilliant, but relax; remember 'pogo'...
we've met the 'enemy', and he is us.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:33 - ID#57232)
Everything in our world is interconnected
Goldfevr: I think we agree. I wish I could see much better what is happening to us. But -- then I would not be human -- would I? I think at best we can only see some of the events that sweep us along. The more skilled investors /traders among us can do this better than the rest of us. And -- we get better if we are methodical/organized and persistent. Even Oldman admitted one time how many years it took to get to his Olympian level of trading skill.
I think we as individuals in our respective little worlds also become better people as we learn how all is integrated. I strongly suspect the world is much richer than it appears to us at our level of understanding, by the way. And -- there are entities in the Universe who probably look at us and smile ( in their own way ) and think: 'How can they ( humans ) function, knowing so little about their world? And yet -- they still strive to move forward to their uncertain destiny'. What I would give for the collective memories of our forebears, or the knowledege of a civilization more evolved than ours.
Intelligent life is the most precious thing in the Universe, IMHO. Let us continue to learn and evolve until we can explore the Universe, as ( I suspect ) many intelligent species have before us.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:38 - ID#410198)
6pak.....yeah I know,the lines between left and right are blurred,no one will understand till MAI
becomes law,if and when that happens we are all slaves

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:39 - ID#35571)
blooper ,
AG is saying rates are sideways for the forseeable future.

John Disney__A
(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:40 - ID#24135)
For Old Gold ..
Nick Goodwyn screwed up.. He left out AVGOLD !!
the rest are fine.

for all ..
Anglos is really top stuff .. earnings up to Rd4.3
from 3.21 in the March quarter. 1.6 million oz for
the quarter !! Going for 6.5 million oz for the
year .. Shooting for 220 $/oz cost by year end. Looks
like their dividend will be about 5 per cent or more.
Let's see what ABX gives its shareholders .. other
than spin.

For 6Pak..
You sound shocked at RSA's attempt to defend itself
from what was at the time a red takeover attempt ..
The council of churches was pretty politicized then
too.. liberation theology was the name of the game ..
Cosatu is still red and a problem for the ANC who
found that being red didnt pay.
Read your "Law and Order" posting and reflected..
I quess I just wanna blow up the bad guys .. Lets
keep it simple.

To those interested in Disney's 1st Law.
Gold is running ahead of the 1st Law .. I like that
ie 41250/140.33 = 293.9 BUT Aug Gold is 295.4 ( the
last time I looked ) . Silver pushing .. PGM falling
back to regroup.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:43 - ID#373403)
Where is the inflation?
These rising expectations have, in turn, driven stock prices sharply higher and credit spreads lower, perhaps in both cases to levels that will be difficult to sustain unless the virtuous cycle continues. In any event, primarily because of the rise in stock prices, about $12-1/2 trillion has been added to the value of household assets since the end of 1994. Probably only a few percent of these largely unrealized capital gains have been transformed into the purchase of goods and services in consumer markets.

Alan Greenspan, today

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:45 - ID#373284)
an excellent addition to your Y2K sites...give it time to load

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:49 - ID#237264)

Its like a glass globe filled with water and tiny crystal specks; when shaken few can see the truth. Yes; they shake it vigorously to our detriment.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:49 - ID#57232)
Inflation and deflation
Trader Vic: One thing we do know -- and that is the basic policy of the FED is inflationary. Deflation only occurs when the economic machine no longer responds to the inflationary stimulus -- like Japan since 1990 -- and like us in the early nineties when the FED was worried about the contracting M2 ans M3. They were able to get us out of the deflationary dive that time. But -- each business cycle it will get tougher unless we pay off our debts, and reduce taxes/regulation. not in the cards dealt us, unfortunately.
My main problem is that I do not see anything on the short term horizon that will cause all of the foreign held US dollars to return to the US. That will not happen, IMHO, until the Asian economies recover, or Europe pulls out of their recession. Now, Russia might dump all of their US dollar holdings after a revolution of some kind, but that will take alot of time, too.
So -- I do not see a big run on the US dollar for some time, barring some unexpected catastrophic event.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:54 - ID#372228)
The biggest money made in trading is to those who have been positioned prior to the move. Take a look at the Big Picture first, then see how the day-to-day trading fits into your analysis. All the pieces are there, you just need to study them. Let the markets come to you, then ride the wild bull, learn to take short term profits on breakaway highs, and wait for new entry points.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 13:57 - ID#24997)
Repair man
This is my seventh attempt to post this URL since last night as you requested, I don't know if I did something wrong or if it was a system problem, if it doesn't work this time I will give up.
Best regards.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:00 - ID#20748)
Will Japan trip the bull ?
Who would have imagined an article like this in the U.S News & World Report.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:04 - ID#372228)
JTF @13:49
The dollar will crash, sooner than most think...Japan has already sold some of their treasuries and is just waiting for an opportunity to sell the rest. They are fed up with us telling them what to do. The Japanese don't like to be told what to do...and even though they say they won't, they will, and laugh about it later. Europe is already setting up to be a world class currency and wants the get it, they will sell US$ as soon as they see the slide in value. Europe does not need us as trading partners, we need them.

The other way that dollars will come back to the US is through the sale of stock in the stock market by the world. When the stock market starts to crash, so will the dollar...When the game is up here, they all go home and take their money with them...It's only the small brainwashed US investor that hangs around to get slaughtered.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:06 - ID#20748)
Will Japan trip the bull ?
Sorry. Go to and look for the story in 'this week'.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:06 - ID#93232)
utility companies
Does anybody know of any websites or organizations that rate the management ( not necessarily Y2K ) of specific utility companies? My thinking is to be in the service area of a well-managed utility company come 1/1/2000 as they will 1 ) not go offline or 2 ) will be back up and running before other utility companies. Also, any thoughts as to the ratings of municipalities and state governments as to management and Y2K. My thinking at this point is that, in a Y2K crisis, cities will garner the lion's share of resources during any recovery since they are the centers of wealth and power in our society ( i.e., home to large corporations ) .

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:10 - ID#35571)
close to closing
Goblin is trying to sneak the prices back down in th waning minutes to make it easir during the overnight markets. Now seven, whoops back up to eight. What drama!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:11 - ID#373284)
strat, Namaste' dig around in here

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:13 - ID#372228)
goldfevr @ 13:14
No, I did not see the Barron's article...wish I had...I will try and get it from Barron's on-line. I agree with the Velocity...when I work with the FX traders, they always look for Velocity in the the US$ comes back home in its repatriation, you will see the Velocity go out of sight.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:13 - ID#373284)
strat, compliments of the fin that shares for taking the time to put this together...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:14 - ID#57232)
Trader Vic: I appreciate the comments. The technical stuff gives you the turning points, but you still need the fundamentals to guess which ones to ride. By the way, I have read both of Trader Vic's books -- I think I learn the most from the traders, as they are equally at home in bull and bear markets. Most equities investors know how to trade the bulls, not the bears. Good id -- any relation to Vic Sperando?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:26 - ID#372228)
JTF @14:14
No relation...the handle comes from 25 years of trading.

Best of luck.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:30 - ID#207145)
Waldo, Gollum
We are entering an inflationary period. A lower dollar= inflation. Not deflation.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:31 - ID#57232)
The EURO launch
Trader Vic: So you think the EURO will make a major dent in the world currency trade, displacing the US dollar fairly soon. My conceptual problem with this is that the exchange rates have been locked in, IMHO, but actual trading in EURO's is to be increased gradually over many years -- I think 4 or so. How can the EURO be a short term threat to the US dollar, if it will take that many years to gear up to the point that Germany does not use the Mark, or France the Frank? And, lastly, what about those comments of George Soros, pointing out that differential interest rates and inflation rates among member countries have not been factored in appropriately with the fixed exchange rates. Are the weaker member countries to sell off their US dollar and gold reserves to maintain parity? In my mind, at least, something is missing. Perhaps I simply do not understand the EURO launch.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:33 - ID#410198)
Ever wonder why politicians want SS to go into the stock market,check out this poll

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:39 - ID#434108)
hypotheoretical dialogue: Greenspan & Macrory//G's coments from '96 Boyer Lecture Series
Dear Mr. Grennspan - Sir,

Why do you keep heaping upon yourself,
responsibility for the U.S. economy,
and the economic destiny of our nation,
and even the world?

Dear Mr. Greenspan,
Your '96 comments are too-revealing of how you exhibit -
'pride...before the fall'.

"Despite waxing and waning over the decades, a deep-seated tension still
exists over government's
role as an economic policymaker. This tension is evident in
Congressional debates, campaign
rhetoric and our ubiquitous talk shows. "

Why yes, Sir: We are tense; the collective wisdom of government &
central banks, is ruining our otherwise freedom-based economies.

"It should not be a surprise that the very same ambiguities and conflicts
that characterize the rest of
our political life have their reflection in the nation's current view of
its central bank, the Federal
Reserve. With regard to monetary policy, the view--or at least the
suspicion--still persists in some
quarters that an activist, expansionary policy could yield dividends in
terms of permanently higher
output and employment."

It's just that we see you, as "the-blind", leading the blind.

"Nonetheless, there is a grudging acceptance of the degree of
independence afforded our institution,
and an awareness that unless we are free of the appropriations process
that our independence
could be compromised. It is generally recognized and appreciated that if
the Federal Reserve's
monetary policy decisions were subject to Congressional or Presidential
override, short-term
political forces would soon dominate. The clear political preference for
lower interest rates would
unleash inflationary forces,
inflicting severe damage on our economy."

Dear Mr. Greenspan, we recognize how much you want to justify your job;
however, history is resolute: you don't have to figure it out,
nor are you necessary, in this un-warranted capacity;
the natural law of gold-based money will resolve these
( And in the meantime, liberate you from your fear of political
control from the Executive & legislative branches. )
Notwithstanding, the central bank has not been immune from
the suspicion and lack of respect that
has come to afflict virtually all institutions
in our society
since the traumas of Vietnam, Watergate,
and the destabilizing inflation in the 1970s.

Freedom's revolt is not always comfortable, nor pretty, is it.

The Federal Reserve's most important mission, of course,
is monetary policy.
Then you, and all the rest of the Fed. Reserve,
can retire.
"Monetary policy" is a non-sequitir; there is no policy that can for long-rule ..... money.
For money
is an expression of the creative, productive....
faith and commitment
to freedom,
that is the essence of
the spirit and soul
of humanity.

You don't need a policy, and we don't need you, your Fed. res. Banks;
we need only a return to the democratic, equalizing, accountable justice..
of a universal medium of exchange & store of value -- gold. ...

gold-based money/currencies-convertible there-to;
and credit-instruments defined there-by.

"I wish I could say that
there is a bound volume of immutable instructions on my desk on how
effectively to implement
policy to achieve our goals of maximum employment, sustainable economic
growth, and price
stability. Instead, we have to deal with a dynamic, continuously
evolving economy whose structure
appears to change from business cycle to business cycle, an issue I
shall return to shortly.

My dear Sir, and fellow-soul traveler,
You do not have to figure it out;
and it would be really be ok if you
abolished your entire institution/s --
Central/Federal Reserve

It would be alright, though scary,
to surrender "CONTROL" to the natural
order of life, nature, and the law of the universe.

Gold-based money would help you do this,
release this, permit this,
surrender to this.

It would be OK to do this...just think of it:
a universally accepted medium of exchange & store-of-value...
that is equalizing, objective, just, honest,
and accountable......
across all boundaries
and trades
of all nations...
and individual exchanges.

Gold-based money & credit will
unite the world,
in a truely global economy, rooted in integrity.

Because monetary policy works with a lag, we need to be forward looking,
taking actions to
forestall imbalances that may not be visible for many months. There is
no alternative to basing
actions on forecasts, at least implicitly. It means that often we need
to tighten or ease before the
need for action is evident to the public at large, and that policy may
have to reverse course from
time to time as the underlying forces acting on the economy shift. This
process is not easy to get
right at all times, and it is often difficult to convey to the American
people, whose support is
essential to our mission.

Sir, Interest Rates are not "GOD",
but you are obviously enslaved to such a belief.
Sound money & banking instituitons, based on gold,
would free you of this 'job'....
of being responsible for interest rates;
and surrendering this absurd belief,
would free the economic vitality ... of many nations.

Because the Fed is perceived as being capable of significantly affecting
the lives of all Americans,
that we should be subject to constant scrutiny should not come as any
surprise. Indeed, speaking as
a citizen, and not Fed Chairman, I would be concerned were it otherwise.
Our monetary policy
independence is conditional on pursuing policies that are broadly
acceptable to the American
people and their representatives in the Congress.

Augmenting concerns about the Federal Reserve is the perception that we
are a secretive
organization, operating behind closed doors, not always in the interests
of the nation as a whole.
This is regrettable, and we continuously strive to alter this

If we are to maintain the confidence of the American people, it is
vitally important that, excepting
the certain areas where the premature release of information could
frustrate our legislated mission,
the Fed must be as transparent as any agency of government. It cannot be
acceptable in a
democratic society that a group of unelected individuals are vested with
important responsibilities,
without being open to full public scrutiny and accountability.

To be sure, if we are to carry out effectively the monetary policy
mission the Congress has
delegated to us, there are certain Federal Reserve deliberations that
have to remain confidential for
a period of time. To open up our debates on monetary policy fully to
immediate disclosure would
unsettle financial markets and constrain our discussions in a manner
that would undercut our ability
to function. Nonetheless, we continue to look for ways to expand the
flow of information to the
public without compromising our deliberations and purposes. We have
recently commenced to
announce all policy actions immediately, federal funds rate changes as
well as discount rate changes,
and have expanded the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee.

For many years, the Federal Reserve has maintained what we trust is a
highly sophisticated
day-by-day, near real-time, evaluation of the American economy and,
where relevant, of foreign
economies as well. We are able, partly through our twelve Reserve Banks,
to monitor continuously
developments in the real world. The information supplied about local
conditions by the directors of
the Reserve Banks has been frequently useful in identifying emerging
national trends and in
evaluating their underlying regional implications.

The issues with which we are confronted differ in urgency over time.
Inflation concerns were not a
dominant factor in economic forecasting in the 1950s and early 1960s,
for example. Since the late
1970s, however, such concerns have become an important element in
policy-making. More
recently inflation has been low, but its future course remains
uncertain. The development of
comfortable product, but tight labor, markets has been a crucial factor
in short-term economic
forecasts of recent months--a phenomenon for which there is scant
historic precedent.

There is, regrettably, no simple model of the American economy that can
effectively explain the
levels of output, employment, and inflation. In principle, there may be
some unbelievably complex
set of equations that does that. But we have not been able to find them,
and do not believe anyone
else has either.

Consequently, we are led, of necessity, to employ ad hoc partial models
and intensive informative
analysis to aid in evaluating economic developments and implementing
policy. There is no alternative
to this, though we continuously seek to enhance our knowledge to match
the ever growing
complexity of the world economy.

Like I've said before, Mr Greenspan:
You are among .....'the blind'...
the blind.
( Give it up, Mr. Greenspan, and go skiing. )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:40 - ID#207145)
Clinton sees it as a way to save the stock market, and so his sorry but.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:41 - ID#434108)
Greenspan's text/comments, from 1996 Boyer lecture Series

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:43 - ID#350179)
Report: China boosting nuclear ICBM arsenal from 18 to 26

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:43 - ID#207145)
Also, robnoel,
It would serve as fodder for spending programs ( investments, ha ha ) . He calls spending "investment". What a lie ( spin ) .

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:43 - ID#57232)
Good point -- the US dollar and the markets are linked
Trader Vic: I appreciate your insight. I knew that a run on the US dollar could crash the markets. What did not occur to me -- at least as clearly as you said it -- is that the US dollar also depends on the US markets. That has not been the case for many years in the past history of the US, because most of the US market activity was limited to the US only, and we could ignore the effect of the rest of the world. Well we can nolonger ignore the rest of the world, investmentwise. Foreign investors hold too much of our markets, and our debt.
So as George Soros might say the US dollar and the US markets go up and down together. Lastly, we know very well what happens to gold bullion and oil prices if the US dollar starts to drop.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:46 - ID#377196)
Trader vic
I tend to agree with your excellent viewpoint. Deflation from
Asia and with dollars coming home inflation here? Probably gold
going up. Probably services too. Taxes? I have heard the term stagflation used for what is coming and I think I would agree with
that view which is basically what you are saying?

I see deflation mostly in US stocks. Where will the money go? Some
to PM's and some I think to pay off debt which is of course more
pressure on deflation. Off setting this is the need for people and
companies to stockpile goods for the coming 2000 problem/disaster.

All in all a very interesting situation coming up and thanks for
your thoughts.

Thanks, GD and GO GOLD

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:50 - ID#207145)
Come on you guys
Lower dollar= inflation. Simple as that.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 14:57 - ID#244418)
Y2k a pretext for declaration of national emergency
The following article is from the McAlvaney Intelligence Advisor, at
The Millenium Bug: Toward a State of National Emergency. . . an extract
"We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order." -- David Rockefeller


The February and March '98 issues of MIA analyzed the Millennium Bug and the potential impact of a global cyber-meltdown in the year 2000 on American business, industry, banking, the stock market, the power grid, transportation, on government agencies, national defense, on U.S. food supplies, and on social/civil unrest in large American cities. The problem is huge and appears to be more formidable with each week that passes, with the potential for substantial economic, financial, industrial, governmental and social upheaval.

However, the most ominous aspect of the Y2K crisis is how the global socialists who run America and most Western ( first world ) countries will try to use the crisis to push us in one quantum jump toward global government C which they call the New World Order. Could Y2K be that Aright major crisis@ that David Rockefeller talks about C wherein the peoples of the world will accept a new global order in return for a promise of stability or a return to normalcy?

Over the past few decades, the socialists who dominate America have used crises ( real, imagined, or manufactured ) to expand their controls over people, private property, cash, our children, and many other areas of our lives. It is called Acrisis management@ ( the environmental crisis; the crisis of global warming; the drug crisis; the crisis of money laundering; the medical crisis; the crisis of child abuse; the crisis of terrorism; the gun control crisis, etc. ) . Remember when TWA Flight 800 crashed, how they cited the Acrisis of terrorism@ as the reason for showing photo IDs at all airports. If Y2K is the Amother of all crises@ that many experts believe it will be, the potential for government crisis management, new people controls, and movement toward world government is huge.

Since a banking/financial crisis is likely to be a major element of the Y2K upheaval, the potential for declaration of a national state of emergency by Bill Clinton ( not unlike that declared by President Roosevelt in 1933 ) is very high C either on ( or about ) 1/1/2000 or perhaps well before that date. Under a state of emergency, the Constitution, the right to trial by jury, the Congress, and most of our Constitutional rights can be suspended.

The year 2000 elections would also be suspended if the state of emergency was still in effect C leaving Bill Clinton in office past his second term as President; Commander-in-Chief; Dictator; or Fuhrer. Does that sound impossible? The review of past states of national emergency ( below ) should make it clear that such a development could happen.

Another thrust the global socialists are likely to make as part of their Y2K Acrisis management@ is a quantum leap into a cashless society. The socialists hate privacy and they hate cash C which is the essence of financial privacy. Remember, in George Orwell's A1984,@ ABig Brother@ wanted to watch and monitor every aspect of human activity. So do the Asocialists@ of our day. And this is why cash is anathema to the global socialists. They want to push everyone into the computerized banking, credit/debit/smart card system wherein all transactions are done via electronic funds transfer C and therefore totally traceable and controllable.

In the coming Y2K crisis, and the banking/financial crisis which it will spawn, the government has two choices C especially if there is a giant run for cash on the banks: 1 ) To print massive amounts of cash and flood the system with it C which has ominous implications for inflation for the U.S. dollar, foreign holdings of treasury paper, etc; or 2 ) to make Draconian moves against cash, attempt to push everyone into the electronic funds transfer system, and even implement regulations to restrict cash withdrawals ( above very limited amounts ) from the banks. MIA believes the second scenario is the most likely.

This article will examine the potential for a national state of emergency related to Y2K ( and its implications ) and the potential for forcing a cashless society on America literally overnight.


It has been estimated by banking experts that there is only about 1.2% of the total deposits in an average American bank that are actually on hand in the form of cash in the event of a national run on the banks. Most deposits are loaned out in our highly leveraged, fractional reserve banking system. Even if 5% of the deposits were on hand ( or the Fed could fly in emergency cash raising the cash levels to 5 or 10% of deposits ) a national Y2K related panic run on the banks could exhaust that cash literally overnight.

The following article by Mark Ludwig, from his excellent book The Millennium Bug: Gateway To The Cashless Society ( American Eagle Publications, 1997 ) reviews past U.S. national states of emergency and the potential for such a development over the next two years:

If the banking industry collapses, if banks close their doors and most people can't get their money out, President Clinton will declare a national emergency. Banks will be crying for help; individuals C 98.8% of them C will be crying for help, and the government will step in to help. This is not merely likely. It is a dead certainty.

To understand what would happen in a national emergency caused by a banking crisis, we can only look at history C past precedents C to form a picture of how the government would handle a banking crisis in 1999. We will look at what powers the government has legal authority to assume, as well as what powers it has assumed in the past. Then we will focus on the national emergency that Franklin Delano Roosevelt called in 1933 in response to a banking crisis.

1. THE LEGAL BASIS FOR EMERGENCY POWERS C Since World War I, the federal government has used the War Powers Act of 1917 as the basis for presidentially declared national emergencies. Even before World War I, there were provisions for so-called Awar powers,@ especially in the so-called Alaws of prize@ on the high seas. These laws date back to the very beginning of the republic. Further precedents were set during the Civil War, in war powers assumed or given to Abraham Lincoln. The War Powers Act of 1917, however, marks the beginning of the idea of a Anational emergency@ that is not a war. This law was enacted at the beginning of U.S. involvement in World War I, and it gave the president specific powers to regulate trading with the enemy.

AThat the president may investigate, regulate, or prohibit, under such rules and regulations as he may prescribe, by means of licenses or otherwise, any transactions in foreign exchange, export or earmarkings of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency, transfers of credit in any form ( other than credits relating solely to transactions to be executed wholly within the United States ) .@ C Section 5 ( b ) , the Act of October 6, 1917

Specifically, this act applied only to Aother than citizens of the United States@ since citizens were understood not to be enemies. When World War I ended, however, the War Powers Act was not rescinded. It still remained in effect. In the banking crisis of 1933 Roosevelt asked Congress to modify the War Powers Act to read:

ADuring time of war or during any other period of national emergency declared by the President, the President may, through any agency that he may designate, or otherwise, investigate, regulate, or prohibit, under such rules and regulations as he may prescribe, by means of licenses or otherwise, any transactions in foreign exchange, transfers of credit between or payments by banking institutions as defined by the President and export, hoarding, melting or earmarkings of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency, by any person within the United States or anyplace subject to the jurisdiction thereof.@ ( Changes bolded. )

So citizens were now to be treated like the enemy, and this Act was no longer to apply to wartime alone, but to any presidentially declared emergency. This law is routinely cited in Executive Orders that deal with national emergencies. Congress has given blanket approval to all actions by the executive, past, present and future, taken under the authority of this War Powers clause:

AThe actions, regulations, rules, licenses, orders and proclamations heretofore or hereafter taken, promulgated, made, or issued by the President of the United States or the Secretary of the Treasury since March the 4th, 1933, pursuant to the authority conferred by Subsection ( b ) of Section 5 of the Act of October 6th, 1917, as amended, are hereby approved and confirmed.@ C 12 U.S. Code, Section 95 ( b )

When Roosevelt originally took such war powers upon himself, he met opposition from the Supreme Court, who ruled that this ANew Deal@ was unconstitutional in United States vs. Butler ( 1935 ) and a number of similar cases. However, Roosevelt succeeded in stacking the court with new appointees, and in 1937 it overturned United States vs Butler and upheld the broad powers Roosevelt claimed. [ED. NOTE: An excellent treatise on this subject is by Gene Schroder: War and Emergency Powers, A Special Report on the National Emergency in the United States of America ( American Freedom coalition, Rockwell, Texas: 1995 ) . Their phone is ( 972 ) 771-1969.]

Since that time the courts have no longer viewed AWar Powers@ as unconstitutional. Their view is that the Constitution itself makes exceptions whereby it would appear to be suspended. For example, Article 1, Section 9 states that: AThe privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion, the public safety may require it.@

Thus Habeas Corpus is understood as a privilege, not an inalienable right, and it may be suspended. When? In a national emergency. [ED. NOTE: Habeas Corpus guarantees that the government cannot hold someone without due process of law, e.g., charging them with a crime, indictment by a Grand Jury, etc.] Similar language may be found in the 5th Amendment, which intimates that men can be held answerable for crimes without indictment or even trial during such an emergency.

ANo person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger...@

When these Constitutional provisions, Habeas Corpus and the Fifth Amendment are abandoned, a Constitutional government of laws is effectively reduced to an uncontrolled police state, which is what our federal government has essentially become today. The legal means by which this has happened is that the national emergency originally declared in 1933 has never been rescinded. That is why gold and silver were systematically removed from circulation between 1933 and 1970 even though the Constitution requires gold and silver for lawful money. That is why they have never been restored. We're still in the state of emergency. Even the U.S. Senate, in a hearing on the matter in 1973, acknowledged this fact. Our leaders haven't just somehow forgotten what the Constitution says. They've annulled it through a declaration of emergency.

These emergency provisions are no longer issued only by the executive branch. Given that the Constitution is laid aside by the presidential declaration of national emergency, Congress has gotten into the act as well, routinely enacting legislation that flies in the face of constitutional guarantees of freedom. Perhaps Congress knows that the president no longer needs their consent to legislate as he sees fit, and they go along peacefully lest they shatter the appearance that they still have some power. [ED. NOTE: Not unlike the Roman Senate when it began to lose power to Julius Caesar and his successors.]

Thus, national emergencies have produced everything from wage and price controls to the abolition of due process in punishing the guilty by allowing various government agencies to seize property from people without even accusing them of a crime. The latest subterfuge is the war on terrorism, which is making way for any individual to have his normal rights suspended by declaring him, or an organization he belongs to as Aterrorist.@

2. THE LONG-TERM EFFECT OF NATIONAL EMERGENCIES C The end of every national emergency, and of the state of emergency that has been in continuance since 1933, is that the government grows more powerful, claiming new rights to itself and abolishing the rights of individual citizens. In view of this fact, we must realize that neither bureaucrat nor politician is adverse to a national emergency. Quite to the contrary. The national emergency is the enabling factor that allows the government C and government bureaucrats C to Aget things done.@ The state gains more power from every emergency. New precedents are set for unilateral action.

Patrick Kennon, in his book The Twilight of Democracy ( Doubleday, New York, 1995 ) sheds some light upon why this situation has developed. His book is a discussion of the role of bureaucracy in government. He is himself a bureaucrat C a retired CIA analyst C and he believes the democratic system is ineffective and incompetent. Kennon argues this is a world of technical specialization that bureaucrats should rightly rule. This is a disgusting book, but it is an important book because it reveals the mindset of the bureaucrat who considers himself to be the priest of the New World Order.

Kennon makes it clear in his book that large bureaucracies do not function well in so-called Anormal@ times. Multitudes of conflicting interests pull this way and that way at the reins of power, so that when a government agency attempts to regulate some activity, it meets resistance. Thus it cannot do its job effectively. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency is given the task of protecting the environment. It institutes all kinds of controls with that task in mind. However, economic interests continually hobble it in its work. Cities cannot afford to meet pollution standards by such-and-such a date. The logging industry just doesn't care about the plight of owls, etc., etc.

During an emergency, on the other hand, bureaucrats are handed power on a silver platter. They are given carte blanche to do whatever they Aneed@ to do. The opposition that a bureaucracy normally faces when doing its job evaporates. To the bureaucrat, then, a national emergency becomes the key to self-realization.

A great example of this was World War II. Virtually the whole economy was turned over to bureaucrats who regulated everything from how much butter you could buy to what a factory was to produce. They could even send loyal American citizens to concentration camps at a word. Opposition was unpatriotic, and bureaucrats ruled the country.

In other words, national emergencies are not, for everybody, something to be avoided. To some people they are the ticket to power, and the means by which normal opposition is short-circuited. They are the means by which politics is set aside and Atruly efficient@ government is called into action.

In the end, government according to principles is thrown out the window. Instead, we end up with a government that is driven by Apublic policy@ C e.g. what the public wants. In such a situation, the national emergency C the crisis C is the way change is introduced. If inflation is perceived to be the The Problem, then the government jumps in and does something. If drugs are The Problem, the government jumps in. If terrorism is The Problem, then guess what...I hope you're getting the picture.

Why doesn't the government attend to these kinds of things long before they become crises? Why not institute sound economic policy so that inflation doesn't become a problem? Why allow millions to become addicted to drugs before doing anything? Why not have a sane foreign policy that doesn't lead half the world to hate us? The simple answer is that public support for drastic actions doesn't exist until a crisis manifests itself.

So in a way, it is better to just let things go until the crisis appears. At that point, public opinion swings so decisively in favor of somebody doing something C anything C that the bureaucrats and politicians can act strongly without having to face repercussions at the ballot box.

3. NATIONAL EMERGENCY IN THE '90s C ANational emergency@ has become a routine way for the executive office to legislate, and indeed, control the country. Things that are in no way vital to the life of the nation are now routinely declared national emergencies. Such declarations enable the President to throw his weight around in one way or another.

Just in the past few years, President Clinton has declared national emergencies to:

Prohibit development of Iranian petroleum resources.

Implement export controls to curtail Aunrestricted access of foreign parties to U.S. goods, technology and technical data.@

Prohibit transactions with terrorists who threaten to disrupt Middle East peace processes.

Implement export controls to retard development of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

Block assets of people involved in the Bosnian-Serbian conflict.

Block assets of Haitian nationals.

Forbid transactions with Unita ( the anti-Communist freedom fighters ) in Angola.

[NOTE: We aren't even discussing the multitudes of local emergencies which are called by governors when hurricanes, earthquakes, or floods strike, or riots start. These also invoke reams of emergency regulations and get the Federal Emergency Management Administration involved, with its own set of federal regulations.]

These national emergencies have been declared using wording describing how such problems constitute Aunusual and extraordinary threats to national security, foreign policy and the economy of the U.S.@ With the possible exception of nuclear, chemical and biological weapon development it is difficult to see how these things really constitute national emergencies C or for that matter to believe that they even really concern us. Yet the law says that there is a national emergency whenever the president declares one. It is left entirely at his discretion.

[ED. NOTE: Would Bill Clinton declare a Y2K-related state of national emergency to save his scandal ridden administration and political career, in order to cancel the Year 2000 national elections, in order to perpetuate himself in power beyond his eight year limit?]

In essence, the national emergency has become a normal part of American life. While the concept of a real Aemergency@ is lost in this game, the very broad powers delegated to the president in time of national emergency have not likewise been diluted. The original War Powers Act of 1917 still stands, giving the president virtually unlimited power over the economy. Furthermore, the president can clarify or expand these powers at will by issuing more executive orders.

Executive Order 12919, released by President Clinton on June 6, 1994, spells out some of the powers that the president assumes under a national emergency. In it, he assumes the power to control all transportation, Aregardless of ownership,@ all forms of energy, all farm equipment, all fertilizer, all food resources, all food resource facilities, all health resources, all metals and minerals and all water resources.

Add to this other executive orders of historical significance such as 10995, which provides for the seizure of all communications media in the United States, or 11002, empowering the Postmaster General to register every person in the U.S., or 11000, which provides for uncompensated work forces under federal supervision, even breaking up families, and the president has virtually absolute power over everything you own and do. If it isn't on the books right now, there is a precedent for it in past executive orders or legislation, and more can be written at will.

With that in mind, let's go on and look at how a previous banking crisis was handled, and how it could parallel a banking crisis in 1999.

4. 1933 AND 1999: A COMPARISON C To understand how a banking crisis surrounding the millennium bug would play itself out, it is essential to understand that the real crisis will occur before the millennium turns over, probably in the last few months of 1999. That is when the bank runs would take place C as people are preparing for the change of the millennium. That is when interest rates would go sky high.

Because the millennium will not have turned over yet, computers will still be functioning. Only software that is looking a few months in advance will face potential problems. The rest of it will be humming along.

This is an essential fact. If a banking crisis were to begin on January 1, 2000 or later, then it would only be a part of a multi-faceted emergency that would involve a hobbled government that was trying to get its computers working properly to start with. However, if the banking crisis starts in 1999, it will not be compounded by other events. The computers will still be running when the crisis hits. The government will still be running too. As such, the government will still be competent to respond to the crisis, and it will respond to it as a financial emergency, rather than a general emergency. This emergency may broaden in scope as January 1, 2000 approaches. However, either legislation or executive orders will already have been put in place by then to deal with the existing emergency.

Let there be no doubt that a banking crisis as a result of people anticipating the millennium bug would certainly be considered a national emergency. If bank runs develop by the end of the millennium, only 1.2% of depositors will get their money out. Then the banks will close their doors. This will leave 98.8% of the people without access to their funds. They won't be able to pay their electric bill or their rent. They won't be able to buy groceries. These 98.8% will consider the situation to be a national emergency. They will be screaming for help from anyone who can give it, and they will take help in any form it comes.

Much lighter troubles have caused the public to request national emergency powers be given to the president in this decade. During the UPS strike in the summer of 1997, many businesses were asking the president to declare a national emergency and send the drivers back to work. That is an utter triviality compared to what will happen when banks start closing. If the American public can't abide a UPS strike, they'll squeal like hogs being slaughtered when the banks close. [ED. NOTE: Actually, 600 businesses went bankrupt in '97 due to the UPS strike.]

Since the first national emergency associated with the millennium changeover will be financial, we can learn a lot about what to expect by looking at the only other Anational emergency@ of a financial character in America's history, the one declared in March, 1933 by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

In 1933, the deflationary cycle of the previous few years was forcing people to eat into savings. Banks were closing as a result, and people were losing their money. On March 2, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York advised President Hoover to declare a national emergency due to Acontinued and increasing withdrawal of currency and gold from the banks of the country.@

Hoover did not comply; however, FDR, inaugurated on March 4, 1933, did. He declared a national emergency and called Congress into session. He declared a banking holiday, and asked Congress to authorize a new emergency currency, Federal Reserve Bank Notes, while authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to require all Agold coin, gold bullion and gold certificates@ to be surrendered. Roosevelt transformed the U.S. monetary system overnight.

By and large, being able to get one's money out of the bank to pay bills and feed the family was a whole lot more important than some constitutional technicality. Unbacked paper that people would accept as money was better than nothing at all. So the change was accepted. That is understandable enough.

Yet FDR's plan for changing the currency was diabolically seductive. It obviously wasn't something that was cooked up on the first evening he was in office. Let's consider it.

First, Roosevelt outlawed ownership of gold, except for coins with numismatic value.

By outlawing the ownership of gold, Roosevelt brought even those who had escaped the banking collapse back into the system. Talking to people who lived through this demonetization, there appeared to be a lot of confusion about what gold had to be turned in. Many people were under the impression that all gold had to be turned in, and they dutifully went and did so. Certainly the new Alaw@ was vague on this point.

Second, Roosevelt outlawed contracts payable in gold.

Outlawing gold-based contracts essentially killed gold as a medium of exchange. It meant that every contract, including the paper money which promised to pay in gold coin, including the bank deposit of gold coin, was no longer to be paid in gold, but in paper. In essence, any gold you had loaned out, or earned but not collected, was confiscated and replaced with paper. Stopping the coinage of gold and replacing it with currency only reinforced killing gold-based contracts. Gold would no longer be available as an option to the general public until January 1, 1975.

And since the national emergency was never canceled, the changes made in 1933 were, for all intents and purposes, permanent and irrevocable. They only made way for further changes down the road. At first U.S. currency was redeemable for gold overseas at the $35/ounce rate, and silver coin still circulated freely in the U.S. In 1965 silver coinage was replaced with base metal. Then the gold backing of the dollar was removed in 1971, when it had become a mere formality to U.S. citizens.

Call 1-800-525-9556

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:05 - ID#57232)
Thanks for your excellent insight
Trader Vic: Good luck to you, too! Hope you did not mind my questions, and that you find the time to post some more.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:12 - ID#207145)
Glad you guys heard it from a celebrity
Now maby you'll believe it.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:22 - ID#207145)
The real velocity
Will be foreign money leaving the US.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:26 - ID#207145)
Dow having a little indigestion
Down 89 points. Nasdac -25. What a great day to be in cash.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:27 - ID#207145)
It is going lower.
Down 100.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:28 - ID#434108)
You, perhaps, recognize...
what not 1 man in a million
is not able to diagose....

it is this... this 'exchange'/this rate-of-exchange&execution-
of 'money' .....
in the market-place of economies, entrepreneurs,
institutions, and individuals ...

that fine-tunes..
the 'final-timing'...
of mega-cycle/super-cycle shifts....
in investment flows of liquid capital.

I believe most physical commodities are beginning
new bull-markets, including gold & silver.

I believe the U.S. stock markets
are exhausting themselves .....
- spiking to final tops --
in the weeks just ahead.


(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:29 - ID#207145)

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:30 - ID#207145)
I'm guessing

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:39 - ID#31876)
A Great Article From My Archives, More True Than When it Was Written
"Selling is more difficult than buying, especially in manias.
Move towards cash, bonds and gold, in a mix that is comfortable
for you, as the top approaches. No one said that it would be
easy!" Bob Ewen

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:48 - ID#43349)
Some dollars are held overseas in the form of cash and cash reserves. If these dollars should try to come back home by being traded in for bonds and stocks it would flood the market with dollars. Dollars would lose stength as equity and bond prices went up.

Much flight capital ( ? ) is held in the form of bonds and stocks. If the foreign interests attempt to sell these instruments in order to cash them in, it will remove dollars from the US economy and make dollars
scarce. Dollars would gain in strength and equity and bond prices would fall.

That is the immediate impact.

Let's say they are in the cashing out frame of mind. After the immediate fall of bonds and stocks as they cash out there are now a lot of dollars floating around overseas. As they either come back home by buying things or by being converted to foreign currency, the dollar would re-inflate.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:57 - ID#373284)
The Secret Service has been complaining that testifying would result in somebody
getting to jack's ass, the Coward Erect. What's the down side here?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:57 - ID#372228)
JTF @ 14:31 - Euro As a Currency 1/1/99
JTF, The Euro already exists and is being used in a very limited capacity. When 1/1/99 comes, All Europe international settlement will be done in Euros, so you see that the "financial based" instruments preceeds the "people based" instrument. This is basicly because people do not handle rapid change very well, but computer systems can be programmed to do it just fine, as long as the basis is set for the currency in relation to other currencies. Just as the Mark or Franc float, so will the Euro to seek its own level in international you don't need the problems solved of the countries as long as the unified group can agree on membership bylaws. Yes, it will be phased in to the Union in 4 years, but it will fly from day one in the Hot money world.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 15:59 - ID#207145)
I gained entry to Energy stocks
And a little gold today. The XOI was only down 55 cents. Oil is a big time buy. The majors are good defensive plays, tyhe drillers are sold out. And gold ain't bad.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:01 - ID#373284)
The USA is being set up for some extremely tough times. There is no question
about this. China is arming itself to the teeth. The Coward Erect is obviously gutting the military. The Executive Branch is trying to run the entire country. Throw in Y2K and you have the makings for It's a Not So Wonderful Life...

Heil Clintler...NOT...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:02 - ID#207145)
I like you man. What a great post. No downside at all!!!!!!

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:04 - ID#212323)
The downside is that people may be trampled in the rush...similar to The Who's concert in Cincinati OH many years ago.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:05 - ID#57232)
Inflation/Deflation - can occur simultaneously
blooper: I think the problem is confusing use of terminology. For example if the stock market collapses, that is deflationary -- at least as far as the stock market is concerned. But -- if the US dollar also falls, that is inflationary through the foreign exchange mechanism. Since gold is traded locally and on the foreign exchange, if the dollar drops, the price of gold must rise. The prices of goods/commodities that are not purchased/sold from/to other countries will not be affected directly by a change in the value of the dollar. I know you know this, and so I think do most everyone else, but it is easy to get all of this mixed up in a dialogue.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:08 - ID#207145)
Since you got it scoped out so well, i'll spell your name right.... China boy Clinton. Bought and paid for. Cheap price to MERV their missles. So they can kill millions of dumb a*s Americans.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:09 - ID#207145)
It's called stag-flation.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:09 - ID#377196)
A lot of money has been created by the inflationary move of the
stock market. A lot of the profits of campanies paid out in salaries
has ended up in the market. Which is really JUST PAPER.

Now some of us believe that if this money comes out of the market
and goes into real goods the goods inflation rate will rise. True.
It is going to be interesting to see how Wall Street's balloon gets
deflated. If slowly then it could cause very high inflation rates.
But if the market "crashes" then where will a lot of this money go?
I suggest it will go to MONEY HEAVEN. So we don't really know yet
just how bad one or the other will be. That is the way I see it.

I can also see a mini boom ( due to 2000 buying of real goods panic )
followed by a long deflation ot 10 to 20 years. It has happened before.
This is the outcome which I think favors a big gold ralley for 6 to 9

But like the rest of you who like to guess outcomes the 'why" does
not matter only price changes make ( or lose ) money. Opinions like mine
are worth no more than the time it takes to write them. Gold takes a
lot of work to get out of the ground and that is where my money is. In
other words don't buy stock in anyones' words; BUY GOLD. It is real.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:10 - ID#57232)
The EURO and the Hot money trade
Trader Vic: That I can understand. We are talking electronic money, so the trade can start instantly. The only problem I have with that is that the traders will gravitate to the currency with the lowest transaction costs, which is usually the one with the largest volume. What gimmiick will the EURO sponsors use to attract some of the 1 trillion plus/day US dollar trade?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:11 - ID#431263)
Market internals have been flashin' danger signals all the way up from 8750! If CRB breaks 200 the deflationary warning siren will be deafening!
The labor war at GM means that the US is losing its competitive edge and the result will be more lost manufacturing jobs overseas, a slowing economy, and a measurable increase in the loss of consumer confidence! Result will be great for bonds, bad for stocks, neutral for gold, and terrific for the Fed! AG knows what he wants and today he got it!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:12 - ID#372228)
Gold_Dancer @ 14:46
Thanks for your comments also...we think very much to where the money will go, it will first come back to the US gov't from foreign sources and bond prices will rise precipitously. As this currency comes out of the market for those lucky enough to get it out first, they will go into real assets ( Real Estate, Gold, goods ) . At this point you will see the "other classic" inflation term return - "Too many dollars chasing to few goods". This is because the dollar will be loosing value so fast that people will have to buy something to get rid of it. Just like in Mexico.

Also, all markets hit a TOP sooner or later, think about takes 10 times the dollars to buy one share of stock than it did 15 years ago....when you consider that there is a "Constant" dollar flow into the market, as prices go higher, it takes more $s to reach the same % returns, which is what everone is banking on. ( ie: 46%, 34%, 26%, 14%, 6% ) with the same dollars year over sooner or later you hit 0% return. Even savings accounts at 1.24% return higher yields...this assumes that there is not any selling going on in the market. Something to think about.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:15 - ID#207145)
Frank Capiello
Says he would'nt buy GM or gold on CNBC.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:17 - ID#372228)
Goldfevr @ 15:28
Thank you...yes I do agree. As for the market, it will reach its' peak very soon in a wave 5 run. When it ends, it will clapse upon itself, only at the disbelief of the "dippies".

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:18 - ID#373284)
adding the human touch...some good folks to contact if you have a mind to...
I have wanted to put together a brief list of Y2K folks I have had contact with. Regular folks I have spoken with, ordered product from and offer them for your inspection as Cuervo Central approved. Decent folks offering solid product...check em out folks... Greg Cheri Bryan

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:19 - ID#57232)
Yes -- stagflation
blooper: Yes -- economic downturn with rising interest rates driven by a dropping dollar. Might be painful, though, if the dollar drops too quickly. Was the last time we had that in the late 70's or early 80's? The US dollar peaked bigtime in 1984, and then kept dropping all the way to October 87.
We are talking about one of those George Soros type virtous circles keeping the dollar up -- for now anyway. Forget what he called it when the positive feedback failed and the process went South. It is amazing how many economic processes are nonlinear, and self stimulating. Once you get the process started, it is hard to stop -- both on the way up, and on the way down. Brilliant man, but his books are incredibly hard reading.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:22 - ID#372228)
JTF @ 16:10
Why do the Euro's have to attract US$ trade, it will come to them...think about it for a moment...which currency would you rather hold, a debtor nations ( with Trillions of $s debt ) or one with 0 debt and backed by 15+% Gold? It's like selling a car, you want one with dents or without for the same price.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:22 - ID#212323)
JTF...With terminology I am often guilty of being as careless as the next guy
On the issue of Inflation and Deflation, those terms should really be used only in reference to the volume of available money and credit in any given market...US, Brazil, Japan, etc.
Any other use of these terms should be carefully qualified with all of the necessary verbiage to avoid confusion. Personally, in such a circumstance I would choose a different set of terms altogether.
And care should be taken not to confuse the symtom with the disease. Falling prices ( or escalating prices ) are a CONSEQUENCE of a deflating ( or inflating ) money supply. The price change itself is not the deflation or the inflation we speak of.

This elementary rant was really not directed at you, JTF, 'cause I know you know this stuff. It was for my lurking friend who is easily confused by all things economic. Hey Friend...let's keep it spare cash? Then exchange some for whatever quantity that will allow you to sleep at night.

got pleasant dreams?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:26 - ID#434108)
DOLLARS flee-ing/Gollum15:48
As king-dollar goes, so goes the world....but only for a while longer...

I agree that 'captial-flight' will accelerate in the period just ahead.

And I've posted/opinioned...just such persectives, in posts on kitco, over the last several weeks.

"Asset-inflation" in U.S. stock and bond markets, fired and fueled
by paper-money
artificially engineered/created credit....
are in their fianl chapter of 'infinity' ....
- a hyperbolic-curve that is reaching completion/exhaustion......

"King-Dollar" is about to ....
reverse, retreat, and seek ...
many alternatives.

These will be found in other currencies - D-Marks, Sw.-Franks, J-Yen;
and in commodities more real, than paper-US-dollars...
such as:

My Feb. article at golden-eagle addressed 'deflation'.
Now, the tables are turning, aprox. 6 mos. later,
we are in the midst of the silent birth of re-inflation.

Current Barron's 7/20/98 article/interview of: ....
"The Next Wave", addresses this.

Velocity patterns will always reveal the next trend.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:27 - ID#373284)
blooper, Namaste' So sad, but true...Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste'
They are going to get trampled no matter how history plays out my friend. Greed has made them lose their sense and then they will be worth cents if that when the smoke clears. I believe the saying was...

The Love/Abuse of Money is the Root of All they sit beneath the false alter of their God of Greed, jack's ass...the Coward Erect...

Oh my darling...Oh my darling...Oooohhhhhh my darling paradigm...

And a fine gulp of Patron to the both of ya...

got exits...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:29 - ID#431263)
what will they do to the DOW dogs tomorrow?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:32 - ID#347267)
1. @ Dow down 105; Just caught the last bit of comments from Frank Cappiello ( sp? ) on CNBC's ( Sue Baby's ) Edge: "there isn't much I would sell yet except gold---" Hell of it is he might be right! Gonna take a lot to kill off this bull.
2. Been on a fast trip to FL over the weekend, and by necessity drove all night back up I-75 thru Atlanta. It was brought home to me about transportation by truck. About a million of then 18 wheel suckers on the road all night, and them that wasn't passin' me were parked at ALL the rest stops and even on off ramps that were little used! Lines of 'em at the Inspection Stations. Man, if they were all carrying goods, this economy must be unstoppable. If they are dependent on computers for their schedules, factories loading and shipping, etc and Y2k does a number there sure will be a bunch of angry REAL AMERICAN truck drivers out there!!

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:34 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1...actually, the rush I was referring to was the rush to get that bum...
...the guy with a forehead where a donkey's tail should be.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:34 - ID#263184)
@trader_vic & JTF..regarding EUROS
I pretty much come out where you are on the EURO question. At first, it may start a little slowly, but as credit is created ( often via loan transactions ) EUROS will start to be accepted by members and residents of the EC. Automatically, they will become competition for the US$ which presently does not exist. Accordingly, the demand for US$s has to decline due to the new competition and it should start to weaken albeit gradually at first. One has to be impressed with the tenacity of the people in the EC who have sponsored this new currency despite the animosity that most of these countries have for each other as a result of wars that date back for centuries. Clearly, they must think it is in their own financial interests to put their personal feelings aside and combine forces and currencies to compete with the US$.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:35 - ID#377196)
You say that dollars coming back into US will go into bonds but
isn't that where the money went already? Japan etc put those dollars
to use into our bond market. So for those dollars to come home I think
it means they SELL bonds and buy either real US goods or gold etc. or
the EURO. Have I understood you correctly?

Thanks, GD

PS As I understand it, when it is said that dollars "come home"
it means they get sold for something else as the currency falls. I
just reread your post and you said "bond prices rising". Maybe you
meant interest rates rising? Easy mistake.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:36 - ID#246224)
Gold/Silver realtime charts/quotes on the internet
Anyone have a URL or two better then Kitco. I seem to be stuck seeing only two updates a day regardless of the number of times I hit RELOAD. I'd like to be able to zoom in.out on intra/interday scales. TIA.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:37 - ID#373284)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmm, this ain't
the first time you said something that went right over my head full of rocks and tequila...ooops...uh huh...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:40 - ID#372228)
Goldfevr - "Deflation"
Good post, as you remark, all commodities will seek their "True" value based upon supply and demand, but will adjust in currency terms to the valuation or de-valuation of the currency traded. Gold is the one exception in this time period, where it has been manipulated by inflating the supply with "Paper Gold"; where the physical Gold does not exist and a paper certificate is issued in its' the CB's.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:45 - ID#410198)
I am seeing this more often the folks at Free Republic starting to talk economics,the end is near...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:45 - ID#228128)
Zero debt?
Trader_Vic: Just because the Europeans create a Euro currency it doesn't make their debt go away. On the contrary, they are far more socialistic than the U.S. and have the debt to prove it. Me thinks you mispoke there. One may even view the Euro as a last ditch attempt to keep their welfare states breathing.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:46 - ID#212197)
@Gold Dancer: Your 16:09 The Market Value of Stocks..
in total is about $12trillion.
Many people think this money "goes somewhere" when the market goes down.
Most of it doesn't go anywhere.
To understand this on a practical example. Let's assume Bill Gates and his closest co-managers hold 1 billion shares. These shares practically never move. If Microsoft trades at $120 per share, this non-moving volume got pushed up to the market value of $120bn without being ever purchased on the market. when Microsoft becomes evaluated "more correctly" by the market, let's assume twice the annual revenue, which is a really great evaluation for a very profitable company, then these 1 bn insider held stocks will have a market value of approx. $25bn.
$95bn just evaporated. The money went, as you said, to the MONEY HEAVEN. Gone. Only a small fraction of really traded volume goes into and out of the market. In case of a crash only a tiny fraction of money can be pulled out by lucky in time sellers. A big portion of the rest of the $12 trillion just evaporates, maybe down to a total market value of $8 trillion in a couple of days. That could happen very soon. I guess latest in October. ( Got your S&P500 puts in place? )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:46 - ID#372228)
Thanks for the correction on the Bonds, it is interest rates that will be rising. Also, my comment about Gov't buying bonds when the money comes home, I was refering to Country to country, as the US will now have to use its' own money to finance its' debt and bonds to keep the ball rolling...this money will then be filtered into our economy thru these the bonds get "Rolled Over".

Speaking of Roll-Over, there is a good movie out called Rollover that discusses Hot Money. It was made in the early 80's.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:47 - ID#434108)
it won't take much, actually...
actually, it will kill itself....

And every tide/wave
must 'wash'
to it's completion....

The Dow/DJIA, are completing their life, born in 1982.
It is inevitable, justifiable, and assured.

The maga-shift, is/has been....
already happening,
for many, many months.

A final spike, over just a few days/weeks, toward 10,000;
will signal/confirm....
the end of this chapter...
a chapter built upon borrowed equity-value, credit-cards,
and speculative-hype in the ethereal-promise
of 401-K plans/etc., and
of an inter-net-based-world
divorced from the reality
of this humble earth.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:47 - ID#242325)
Trader Vic:

Are you the same Trader Vic who authored a popular investment tome not long ago?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:48 - ID#254269)
@ Silverbaron. Are computers male or female ? I don't know but they can
both cause trouble.
@ Tolerant 1, was in Vegas at a seminar ( really ) , but the place was a zoo. There's probably about 20,000 hotel rooms under construction at present. The Bellagio casino is spending about $200 million just on artwork. People everywhere and spending money like no

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:49 - ID#293184)
sell gold?
Sounds like bottom talk.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:52 - ID#57232)
I'd prefer the debt free currency 'backed' by gold
Trader Vic: I still think transaction costs must be equal for a starter. What I do not understand about the EURO, by the way, is that both Germany and France have staggering entitlements and debt, as I recall, despite their generous gold reserves. I think debtwise and deficitwise they only came out slightly better than the USA, according to THE ECONOMIST. There is the matter of the SEAsian and Russian debt owed the Europeans, and the heavy debt load of West Germany assimilating East Germany. This is something I have never understood - and that is if the US is in such severe financial trouble, why do Germany and France not really look any better. Are THE ECONOMIST wrong? And -- now we hear that one of the supposedly strongest net creditors in the world - Japan -- is up to its eyeballs in debt. So is the US in any more trouble than Japan, Germany and France? I dont' know -- I sure can't tell. Perhaps there are no fiat countries except Switzerland that are not up to their eyeballs in debt.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:56 - ID#434108)
Last-chance to buy gold & silver related investments,
near/at .... their bottoms,
is NOW.

( Don't ever say - 'I never told you'. )

David Blair Macrory

(Tue Jul 21 1998 16:59 - ID#207145)
I hope you're right. I finally started investing today.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:01 - ID#207145)
I noted the XOI was only down 64 cents, so I bought drillers. Oil is sols out. It has a semi-bright future.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:01 - ID#434108)
a 'deja-vu', for students of market-timing, esp. in gold/silver/precious-metals
Date: Sun Jul 19 1998 23:55
goldfevr ( volume preceeds price, and other things ) ID#434108:

Date: Sat Jul 18 1998 22:23
goldfevr GOLD BULL IS HERE.....NOW. ID#434108:
Mining shares's reluctance to increase volume on 'down-days',
while -even-tho-begrudgingly-.... adding volume on 'up-days';
over many weeks, and several months, now....
is/are one of the most valuable pieces of evidence...
of the unfolding bull-market in precious metals...
at this very time.

Commitment of Traders pattterns/values...
offered us the possibility of a new bear-chapter for gold/metals;
but - by 'hindsight', we will see this as the final "head-fake"...
the bull-market in gold and precious metals markets, is here/now.

The world's liquid/hot capital is nervous, and almost frightened.
Asia has already nose-dived.
So. Africa & Russia have demonstrated that this is not
a regional problem.
My 9/97/ post of "the collapsing tent"...
continues to be confirmed
by all world and local events.

More & more commoditiy markets - PHYSICALS - ( -as in REALITIES ) ,
are confirming
bottoms, mapping out their early stages of new bull markets:
one by one,
the physical commodities, that are real, in a real world,
where humanity lives on the earth,
an earth of of air and land and fire and water.....
humanity is re-discovering it's basic essentials,
for survival, and life.

The basic shift away from paper-dollar denominated/defined assets,
to assets-more-real....
is upon us.

The U.S. dollar will decline/collapse,
as will its dollar-defined investment markets, and economies.
Pride goeth before the fall.

'Foreign' Currecnies led by the D-Mark,
will live in a new bull market of ....of....of...
of alternatives.......
to a dollar-nation that has sold out its soul
to the highest bidder
of ready comfort, convenience, and denial....

The buy of the century will be Yen-calls in the weeks just ahead.

Asia will rebuild, as the West collapses in upon itself.

If we are to survive, civilization must have food,
and we must have energy - fuel for our factories, furnaces, and

Civilization does not need 'paper' to survive, nor to thrive...
unless it is a receipt for something real.....

Civilization would best do away with paper-for-paper's-sake....
lest suicide
would be it's bequest

Return to Kitco Homepage

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:02 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' I have always wondered about the massive expansion in LV
and at the same time wondered if it is not a great way to bury money and write it off with the wonderful tax system that has been developed by the idiots that gave us the Susan B. Anthony...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:05 - ID#350225)
help appreciated
I'm a 56 year old architect who stumbled on a Gary North Y2k talk show and found Kitco the very next day. Have been lurking here for weeks. What an education! Liquidating everything I can and going to gold. The most incredible thing is the human reaction out there. Visiting California last week trying to talk to friends and family. Granted I've always been a visionary type operating at the edge ... but even intelligent strangers on air planes just let their eyes glaze over! Y2K! The techno types are the worst with all the air tight answers... "everything is going to work out just fine". Deepest thanks to Kitco for this platform and bright guys like Sharefin and North who are sticking with this thing! One key question for you more experienced folks out there. I'm going into gold futures but I am just plain "green". No time for a learning curve. How about names of the best account managers so I can sleep at night during this wild ride. Help appreciated. Ron Morgan

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:06 - ID#207145)
Bought gold(little). Bought Oil(alot)
Sorry bout the bad spelling. I should listen to Erle, and review posts before sending.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:07 - ID#431263)
The US Dollar IS Debt!
That's why we gotta' keep printin' it, usin' it for bailouts, and forcin' the world to accept it in payment for commodities, goods and services! We're a debt-based economy with a fiat currency backed only by the promise of the US gov't. to tax its citizens to the hilt when it comes time to pay. When that game begins to fail ( competition from Euro, Yen, DM, gold, wherever... ) ,as it is now, then the scheiss really hits the proverbial fan! The debt pyramid the FED has created since Bretton Woods must be perpetually expanded, rolled over and serviced or the end of the dollar and the US economy as we know it is at hand! Whether the economic results are inflationary, deflationary or stagflationary will make little difference when the value of the currency is ZILCH! Anything denominated in dollars will be worthless and only HARD assets like gold will survive! Buy it now before the debt pyramid implodes and gold is repriced in worthless dollars into the many thousands or millions! At that point it won't matter how much you paid for it BEFORE the collapse!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:08 - ID#252391)
Silver UP
On a down day in July - look silver breaks over $5.50. APH where are you??? Several technical systems I watch will flash buy signals on this little up move today. I know the rally won't go much above $5.75. No reason to get excited!!! Heck there's still 84 million oz of silver at the comex with more on the way.

Break in the DOW pulled down the gold stocks, again. . . when will they decouple.

SSC managed to hold on to unchanged today with a big block trading on a up tick - gosh good days are here again. Amazing how the little things mean so much after the crushing this stock has taken.

Gosh banks and drugs down hard???Wil the internet stocks be next.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:13 - ID#207145)
So far EXXON, oils are better than expected
Oil is OK. I've lost money on it all year. Catching knives. Hope I haven't been extremely stupid again.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:15 - ID#207145)
It was the threat by AG to raise rates that hurt gold.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:17 - ID#431263)
from PLUS 30 to MINUS 30! Summation Index auch! Tomorrow will not be pretty for equities!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:17 - ID#410198) a physical dealer I'am biased,then again I learnt the hard way,playing futures as a
novice they will chew you up and spit you out,the only way to end up with a small fortune is to start with a large it physical ( bird in the hand etc. ) yes you may lose money but it takes a real long time ask anyone span of a futures client is measured in carefull out there

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:18 - ID#372228)
Old_Gold @ 16:47
NO, I did not author that publication...I'm just a well read trader.

Best of luck.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:19 - ID#207145)
Japan is the richest nation. World's largest creditor nation.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:21 - ID#431263)
Promblem is they made a LOT of BAD LOANS that will NEVER be REPAID and they can't bear to lose face by 'fessing up to it!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:24 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.18. The 50 day moving average is 30.62

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:24 - ID#434108)
Money-Heaven//Gold-Dancer & Alberich @ 16:46
All you say is true.
And truth is still, yet, bigger than even this.
Although equity/value/capital...may be eclipsed...
by crasing/declining markets...
still, it will instill - and invest itself...
-- in buying pressure --
as it asserts it's inherent role upon this earth...
and over & across all market-places that meet ....
where supply meets demand....

Although 'money' may be consumed in the crush...
of your 'money-heaven'...
it will survive, endure, re-circulate, and inspire-to-create...
in the heaven of humanity...

Gold values/prices/charts... - in their...
new, bull-birthing patterns...
are revealing that the creative essence....
furor, beauty, passion, reason, order, accomplishment...
and fulfillment....
that is the birth-right & destiny of all humanity.....
can-not be denied....
even now, in this time of toppling currencies & kingdoms....

These values, are the
principle and destiny
of us all.

We will all, be fulfilled....
if not now,
then later...
all of us.

And gold will under-gird our money-systems, and our banks;
and it will over-ride our politicians, leaders, and gurus....
and in the common denominator of golden-truth,
we will all be of service
to one another.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:28 - ID#212323)
JTF...thanks for the 16:52 post. It made me look at this crystal through a different facet.
Is the US REALLY in debt at all? Or any of these other monetarily-fiat-based countries? To honestly answer the question with a YES is to believe in the premise that some day the accounts will all be settled. This physically cannot happen with a debt-based fiat dollar that owes interest immediately upon creation.

All transactions that occur domestically and internationally are done deals upon receipt of payment. Whose fault is it, really, that some of them are left holding worthless paper when the confidence expires ( like a fiscal game of musical chairs ) . Any country that can pass paper along in exchange for something of value becomes the big winner when the music finally stops. At that point a new game is played with completely different rules. Instead of musical chairs, perhaps hide-and-seek...each country dealing honestly with each other, seeking goods that are required in exchange for goods that are in excess. Gold would be the natural universal settlement for any imbalance in trade.

So, in summary, there is no debt when you see the game for what it is. There is instead just a lot of people and nations exercising poor judgement, and will be left holding a worthless bag of leaves.

got gold?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:28 - ID#431263)
"Shareholders are buyin' into a dream!"--Alan Chernoff CNBC

NO EARNINGS NOW AND PRECIOUS LITTLE EARNINGS IN THE FUTURE! TUILPMANIA IS HERE AND NOW! Classic "speculative bubble" that at some point will "blow up!"--CNBC

Spud Master
(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:29 - ID#28586)
Sorry, but I couldn't let that one go by...

The US Dollar is a financial certificate of slavery. Period.

When the US Dollar was gold, you could just put it in your pocket until you needed it.

Now though, our dollars represent YOUR promise to be a slave -- if we were all to pay off our slave indebtedness -- we would be free. Also, there would be no "money" -- as we would no longer be slaves. The bankers of the world would go ape insane.

Hence, you can see how important it is for each one of you to fill out those credit card forms, take out %125 home equity mortgages, borrow, borrow, BORROW!!!

The other alternative is for people to repudiate their debt-slavery. Called "backruptcy". The fact that this is tolerated to the extent it is indicates that "money" really is "worthless", i.e. no one "really" cares that 2% of the American populace use it regularly.

No debt = no slaves = no control of people = freedom.

Spud. 1776 Now!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:29 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236. The 50 day moving average is .248. There have been 35 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is ranked #23. The #1 ranking was on August 25, 1986, with a gold price of $380.70, ax XAU of 69.97, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .184

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:32 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 53.39. The 50 day moving average is 55.23

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:32 - ID#57232)
Japan greatest Creditor nation? I'm not so sure anymore.
blooper: I thought so too. But -- according to the US News and World Report article titled 'Will Japan trip the bull?', 7/27/98, the Japanese are up to their eyeballs in debt. That article states that the average Japanese company is 3-4x more indebted than its American counterpart. And corporate profits may be overstated by 43%. And the hidden debt of the Japan National Railway is 2 1/2 times annual economic output. The conclusion is that the domestic wealth of Japan is an illusion. Just like us, they will have to repay their debt with future taxation. Just wait until they start putting current prices on all their real estate.
Isn't it odd that the 'world biggest creditor' is unable to reorganize and pull itself out of debt? Perhaps nothing can be done by any new Japanese leader -- would be nice to know, wouldn't it?
Why will the Japanese sell US dollars if they earn more interest than the Japanese yen? I think we need to look to another country for selling of US dollars, and purchase of gold reserves.

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:35 - ID#212323)
I was busy typing my last post and only now saw your 17:07. Looks like we are saying the same thing, only with differing quantity of exclamation points ( ! ) . You conclusion will stand the test of time, my friend.

got milk?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:35 - ID#434108)
I'm bullish on oil, gold, silver, grains, foods/softs,
for. currencies.
It's really quite simple, right now:
this is the calm, before trhe storm.
It's like 'an Indian Summmer'....
it's like a magical, make-believe time...

I can call my broker & buy more funds with my credit-card/s....
I can write my name, and get a 'signature-loan'......'groan'.....

I see my friends, freely oblivious to the responsibility...
upon us all...

Would I best be appalled at this...
or resign myself...
to one more...
'free-for-all' .....

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:35 - ID#431263)
Couldn't have said it better myself! The dollar IS slavery because it is DEBT! And it is DEBT that enslaves and robs American Patriots of their precious freedom and liberty! The sooner we get back to gold and silver coin ( honest, debt-free money ) the better! Even if it means political and social revolution which is inevitable anyway if we continue down our current path of a debt-based currency!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $294.28; spot silver $5.33; XAU 73.23

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:42 - ID#212323)
here's what you're looking for...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:42 - ID#433172)
In your 15:48 you comment the $ coming into the US from abroad into the stock and bond markets tend to bring down trhe value of the $. Isn't that whats happening now, with a strong dollar?
I got that right I hope?

Just read a book about a guy named Golem, interested?

Kitco sparkels au'jourdui

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:43 - ID#431263)
NAW! Only drink Brandy and Beer! And an occasional gulp of tequila here at Kitco!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:48 - ID#57232)
Shift to 'real' commodities and real estate coming
goldfevr, trader vic: Traditionally during inflationary times we know that real estate goes up, as the excess inflating money must be leveraged up just to break even. And -- the y2k anxiety will likely cause a shift to commodities. It think it is reasonable to conclude that the perceiverd y2k frenzied 'flight to safety' will easily exceed current investor interest in gold bullion. But -- if this happens, the markets will tent to fall as investors 'flee' equities, and the dollar will fall, too, causing gold to go up. This current US dollar virtuous circle cannot last much linger.
I think the point about the US dollar dropping with decreased confidence in the dropping markets will be the thing that triggers interest in gold bullion. The only question is when this will happen --namely when the US markets start to drop. No sign of that yet. Perhaps not till y2k. I still challenge anyone to show that Germany, France or Japan are really in any better economic shape than the USA.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:53 - ID#295111)
Barrick Reports 23% Increase in First Half Earnings
In case you guys haven't already heard...check out the press release at


Net income increased to US$142 million, US38 cents per share, for the six months ended June 30, 1998 from US$117 million, US31 cents per share, in the year earlier period.

Operating cash flow for the six-month period rose to US$244 million, US65 cents per share, from US$222 million, US60 cents per share.

Cash operating costs declined 18% to US$157 per ounce in the six-month period ended June 30, 1998, compared with US$191 per ounce in the same period last year.

The Company realized an average price of US$400 an ounce on its goldsales, a premium of US$102 per ounce over the average spot price for the first six months of US$298.

With 10 million ounces hedged at an average price of US$400 per ounce through the year 2000, Barrick is well-positioned in this market to maximize revenue and minimize gold price risk.

The Pierina Mine in Peru, is on budget and on schedule to begin production by the end of this year. Pierina is expected to produce 750,000 ounces of gold annually at a cash operating cost of US$50 per ounce.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 17:59 - ID#252150)
goldfever@Your prose is very good but re: the POG, all your TA & commitment
of traders, etc means very liitle. I guess it's too simple for great minds: YEN DOWN = DOLLAR UP = POG DOWN. This phenomenon has been recurring for over a year now & it has been very expensive to bet against.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:02 - ID#434108)
a challenge//JTF @ 17:48
The USA is the largest debtor nation in the world...
( give me a break, JTF.... )
America has enough, already...
of ethno-centric, self-absorbed.....citizens....../citizenry...

allegiance to basic principles.

The U.S., including it's government, banking,
and corporate institutions/entities ....
have sold-out to...
the highest bidder.
-in hopes of maintaing/acquiring.....

Numerous other nations are not
so corrupted/inflated/sated....
as are we, here, in the good ole USA.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:05 - ID#434108)
James@ 17:59...the miracle
Don't give up, James...
just before the miracle.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:07 - ID#267344)
Morgan - response
Morgan - You say you are green, so slow down! You still have time, do your research. But understand that the most recent posts from robnoel, Spud Master, and Winston are pure reason and truth. Gold is more than protection. It is power. Know it, understand the responsibility that comes with that power. Part of the culture of gold means involves managing your own money. I trust no one, not even a "money manager" with my soveriegn frozen desire ( gold ) . I hardly trust myself, but at least I know what my own interests are. Money managers, brokers, bankers, etc. only care about your money so far as they can capitalize on it. Protect your interests and those you care about. Our current political environment is not getting better - yet.


(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:08 - ID#434108)
James@ 17:59
There is a book some-where, that holds these words:
"sarcasm is cheap".

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:08 - ID#295111)
Barrick Short Position
Last time I checked, Barrick Gold ( ABX ) had a short position of over 13 million shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. That's about 3-5% of the total shares outstanding. It's been heavily shorted for more than a year now. I find that astounding!!!!!

I wish I knew investor groups ( institutions ) who have shorted this stock.


( that's because I believe the ABX shorters and the Central Bankers are in BED together ) In a way I admire them cause "they" can control the POG so effectively... those F* B@st@rd manipulaters. Even though this hurts us in the short term, a day will come where us gold bugs will be redeemed AND I'm still buying Gold and Gold stocks. I only wish I had more cash to do so.

Au revoir mon amis....

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:10 - ID#174239)
US international $ exchange questions.
I have become lost trying to trace where $ are going and what effects that has. I have some therotical economics questions. To make it easier I am assuming that the world wants something solid like gold for $ and all other factors are held constant.

1. US has trade deficit with China and others. So the US trades $ for goods. If this defiect goes up, does the value of the dollar go up or down?

2. US has debt in the form of bonds. If this debt goes up does the value of the dollar go up or down?

3. The US population is getting paid more, but the prices of most goods and services are not increasing as quickly. Does this make the value of the $ go up or down?

4. Average US Stock prices have risen far faster than the earnings or book values of the companies themselves ( i.e. a typical stock that was worth 6 times book value a few years may now be worth 20 times book value ) . If this increases further, does the US$ go up or down?

What other influences have I missed?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:21 - ID#31876)
We Have Lost Some Great Contributors to This Thread...
For example, the one going by the handle, "Tony BULL" on
Yahoo. This is probably the same person as "tsclaw".

It would be great to see some of them return!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:22 - ID#434108)
J@ 18:10//ebb & flow
I may not be of help to you;
and altho I appreciate your detail, and questions of 'why'...
I'm re-grounded...once the 'what'...
--of what is going to happen next.

The "why" for it, is often, usually useless. .... ( -imho )

You/we/I...needn't know 'why' ....
a certain market behavior/direction,
is about to take place.

We need only know what it is about to do -- go up, or down.
But we never need know 'why'.
( imho )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:32 - ID#434298)
Golden Cheesehead (and SpudMeister too
"The sooner we get back to gold and silver coin ( honest, debt-free money ) the better!"
I too would like Gold & Silver coin jingling in my pocket instead of the grubby, wrinkled, dirty folding fiat stuff.

But guys, you should not send a boy to do a man's job.
Obviously Klinton and his Kronies are the boys.
Now where are the men?

Might they be Aurator, Chas, Tolerant1 and their cohorts?
I look forward to 10-grain coins.
I wonder if I can buy lunch with them?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:38 - ID#434108)
IBM is helping to hide the impending crash for the DJIA,
by today's market-share action.
The up-side price close of ANGLY,
is a stubborn,
ever-echoing hint and whisper..
that the truth of gold-money....
is here...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:39 - ID#252150)
goldfever@I gave up hoping for miracles to help my investing
I presently own ABX & have been in & out of it very profitably several times this year, having recently bought it in early June, just before the JY intervention that I predicted. However, if the JY starts to display increasing signs of the weakness that occured today, I'll be out of ABX, possibly as early as tomorrow.

No sarcasm was intended....Well, maybe some gentle chiding.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:40 - ID#267344)
Where can I read the words of Alan Greenspan's speech?
- c

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:43 - ID#290118)
This little tyke took another swig at Silver today.
Murphy says it will tank tomorrow.
but if it holds or rises I may take another swig.
American Eagles, I can find.
Maple Leafs at reasonable prices for small quantities I can not.
But then again -
selling new "Silver Dollars" to tourists may be just as good.
I figure on $9.95 plus tax for one or two at a time.
Though I may change my mind by the time they get here.
Especially if Silver rises like bread in a hot kitchen.
We shall see.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:49 - ID#290118)
I am wary of chasing a riser.
I do expect Silver to dip back below $5.
But I do not wish to miss the boat as the tide rises.
It is all a gamble anyway, right?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:54 - ID#206298)
I agree that why can get absurd. What do you think gold and silver are going to do for the next 2 weeks?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:56 - ID#174239)
Goldfevr: A humble 'I don't know' is a respectable answer too.
I suspect every economist may answer every question differently. Perhaps no one understands this system very well.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:57 - ID#206298)
@ Squirrel
What do you think is going to happen to take silver down? Is your thought your opinion , someone elses opinion , or are you basing it on some fundamental or technical information?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 18:59 - ID#26793)
Russian T-Bills will be exchangeable into foreign currency Eurobonds

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:00 - ID#434108)
Why would you do this?!
Why sell-out of this magnificent company?!...
and yes.....- just before the miracle. ....
( -right here, at the very, ignored, missed, beautiful bottom ) ...
why victimize yourself, upon the dawn of this
cathedral of awakening.....?!

ABX -at 18 & 1/4, with a prior/earlier low of 15 & 1/8th.
What more could you ask for.....
buy more, and more, and more......

I've posted numerous posts here, at 'kitco',
over the last several days,
regarding the unfolding/impending bull-market
in gold/commodities/mining-shares.

The dollar is 'history'.....
unfortunately, all the world rides in the fulcrum
of imbalance and balance..
of the US dollar.

This is not, as it should be, but it is - as it is.

Until the global pot/pool/and swarm of exquisite humanity...
insist upon gold-based money & credit.....

we will continue to see, and experience....
the oscillating gyrations....
of political-power-mongers....
pretending that they have a right to rule, & ruin.....
our lives, our children, and our sacred honor.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:05 - ID#335190)
robnoel - here is our slavery notice, via "MAI" @ "Fast track" & USofA Corporate Agenda.
Date: Tue Jul 21 1998 13:38
robnoel__A ( 6pak.....yeah I know,the lines between left and right are blurred,no one will understand till MAI becomes law,if and when that happens we are all slaves

July 21, 1998

U.S. Senate committee revives trade 'fast track' issue

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Cast aside as an election-year liability by the White House, President Bill Clinton's 1997 proposal for "fast-track" authority to negotiate international trade deals was jolted back to life Tuesday by a U.S. Senate committee.

The manoeuvre, orchestrated by committee chairman Senator William Roth, guaranteed what many Democrats hoped to avoid: votes before congressional elections on a hotly contested measure endorsed by the president and business groups but strongly opposed by labor and environmental groups.

Fast track enables presidents to negotiate international trade agreements without interference from Congress. Congress can accept or reject such agreements but cannot amend them.

But John Howard, director for international affairs for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said fast track is "winnable provided people get off the dime and start moving. I can't speak for the administration but this is a very high priority for U.S. businesses."

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:05 - ID#350179)
Just a note - from my side of reality:
This weekend we had a few friends over for discussion. The topic of Y2K was raised ( by me ) . Guest1, Guest2, Myself, My Wife ( all ages 29 to 38 ) I had assumed that our guests were intelligent sheeple...
The abbreviated Conversation thread ( Paraphrased but not too much ) :

Guest2 - Well, is it really THAT serious? I mean so what if invoices aren't correct?

Myself - It's more than just that, it's the POSSIBILITY that small failures will occur creating a cascade of larger failures. For example, one company can say that it's "compliant" but what about all of the links it has to the other vendors/clients? How much revenue can it afford to lose and for how long...?

Guest1 - And just think - If one company can't pay it's employees because of inside or outside problems with the system - not pretty!

Myself - Unemployment - People don't like to have comfort levels shifted. I'm wondering what the boomers will do when things don't turn out as they'd planned?...

Guest2 - Very good point. I'd be worried too. As far as social commentary goes I agree that they are the most vulnerable psychologically. The Rich won't notice, and the very poor are, well, very poor. Lucky for us ( sarcastic ) , we've never had a lot to lose in the first place.

Myself - And then there's the power grid. The mainframes aren't the only culprit. Let's say only 1/2 of one percent of 25 billion imbedded processors fail ( pregnant pause ) ... I'm really looking forward to brownouts & blackouts during what will probably turn out to be a very cold winter ( La nia you know ) .

Guest1 - Which reminds me; Southeast Asia, Japan, China, Russia, Argentina, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan - what the hell is going on? Did you read about the madness in Taliban? Have you seen the DOW? I mean, sh*t - what kind of idiot would still be buying? Can you say "crash"...

My Wife- Well that would probably be a good bet even without the year 2000 bonus. What we're trying to do now is figure out how to insulate and protect ourselves. We are paying off debt at this point - which will probably end up speeding up the crash somehow.
I don't know.

Myself - ( To Guest1 ) Ahhhmmm, so what would YOU do in preparation?

Guest1 - Well, I've already got 2 years worth of food stored away - but that is going to get boring real quick. And well, all that stock money is imaginary anyway - I mean, I'm not really sure how it works, but it seems that only the first 10% could sell and make a profit. But I do know of something which a friend of mine highly recommends. It has a history of keeping value when paper money is either too hard or too easy to get. Now don't laugh - Gold. He has been slowly buying this stuff for years.

Myself - ( gulp, hack... ) playing devils advocate - Well, how does gold have any more *value* than printed paper?

Guest1 - It doesn't burn. And, people WILL accept it. I mean, if I offered you some, right now wouldn't you take it?

Myself - ( smirking ) I see your point. What else would you do?

Guest1 - Get armed. I lived in Detroit during the riots. I know what it's like when the Guard comes in. That's not even the worst of it, the snipers keep you locked in the house - everybody in one room - preferably in the basement. I served my country and I know what the order-givers are capable of...

My Wife - That reminds me of that dream I had. Remember? We were in the garage and could see people with guns in the backyard trying to break in. You said "I told you this would happen!" So I tried to call 911 and it was busy...
There's much much more but I've already used up enough bandwidth.
And we all live our lives quietly working and waiting - hoping that we're wrong ( and making bad assumptions to boot ) .
Got food, family and friends?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:06 - ID#206298)

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:07 - ID#26793)
Sales of gold and platinum eagles soar in June

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:11 - ID#26793)
Signs of deflation in Brazil
Sao Paulo's Fipe consumer price index posted a deflation of 0.23 percent in the four weeks to July
15 due to a dip in food prices. The Fipe research institute forecasts deflation for the monhts of July,
August and September.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:14 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at mid-day

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:14 - ID#434108)
BCIWN@18:54 I...
-but why would you ask of this insight,
for a week or two...?!

Why not ask of it, for a decade or two...?!

For this is what is necessary, is it not.....
if civilization is to survive, and thrive...

( excuse me: )
as far as the next week or two:
all you can get your hands on...
mining-stocks/funds....etc. .....

precious-metals funds
option-trading strategies...
ad infinitim......

As 'Nero fiddles'
and 'Rome burns"....

most of us miss
the breath of life

of this most sacred
that is revealing itself

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:23 - ID#210127)
Look at Silver go

Futures up another 3 cents ..oil up over $14.00 again...Silver looks to really go....go SSC ( you dog...arf..arf.. )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:23 - ID#411112)
6pak...this could be political game by Republicans,democrates like Gephart are opposed to Fast Track

pressure from labour groups as I said this
could be a ploy to divide the Democrats
before the November elections,who
knows.....however this
does not mean the forces who support MAI will
not try to get part of MAI passed through say
WTO.....its a mine field out there keeping up
with these guys and the games they play

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:24 - ID#349183)
@Donald RE: golden eagle sales
I work as a computer consultant in a large office of other computer consultants. Recently two people here bought gold bullion and coins, caught me reading Kitco at my desk, and asked me what I knew about gold.

Of course I told 'em I didn't know nuthin', ( truth! ) and then pointed 'em here to learn from the masters.

Point is, the white collars are beginning to smell the coffee.
Several folks have been buying guns and ammo too. Hmmm.

"And then she told two friends, and they told two friends, and ..."


MG ( We market this new gold watch together, yes? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:24 - ID#434108)
revealing my 'dirty-laundry', from the date of our 'liberation'..... 7/4/98
Date: Sat Jul 04 1998 12:15
goldfevr ( "Twisting 'slowly' in the wind."/Any urls of gold-charts priced in each nation's
currencies?-Anyone: ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr All rights reserved
'Rip-roarin' Gold bull-market has been 'here' already, for at least a year.

from Investor's Business Daily's 7/6/98 issue, 'futures page/column':
""...Right now there's a twist. One of the
( ( many&growing number of.. -imho ) )
currencies falling hard against the dollar is the South African rand.
Thursday it took 6.34 rands to buy a dollar. That's up 5.4% in a day, and a fat 24% in the
last month.
That's key because South Africa is the world's No. 1 gold producer. As the dollar soars, an
ounce of gold brings in more rands, even as gold's
price in dollars falls. Now, gold is at a 10-year high when priced in rands.""

I think this last statement:
"gold is at a 10-year high when priced in rands"
is very important, to recognize, and give some thought to.

This is continuing to happen to more and more currencies, around the world: dramatic bull
markets in gold prices as valued/defined in each currency.

If any of you know of any urls/web-sites, that offer/include gold-price charts in each nation's
currency, I'd very much appreciate your sending that info to me.
( I'm already aware of the-privateer, golden-eagle, etc.; and I recommend those sites,
heartily, to anyone. But I'm still looking for a url that might offer historical gold-prices in terms
of each and every nation's currency, similar to the way the-privateer does, so effectively,
for gold in U.S. dollars, Australian dollars, D-Marks, & Yen. )

I think it is perhaps a most valuable trend to recognize how more and more people & nations
in the world are discovering that gold is getting "too expensive" their individual currency...

for them to buy/invest in....
while for those holding U.S. dollars...

gold has been getting cheaper & cheaper....

It would be useful info to know:

#1. how many currencies now find gold more expensive, than
3 mos. ago, & 6 mos. ago, 12 mos., etc.

#2. where the greatest pools of U.S. dollars/dollar credits/dollar denominate investment
holdings ( -stocks, bonds, derivatives ) are
currently being held; where exactly/who exactly is holding/in-control-of
this 'mountain' of liquid - 'hot capital', in the world.
For example, with the continuing U.S./Japan trade deficits for
many years, 'Japanese interests' have been accumulating millions & billions & even trillions of
U.S. dollar defined capital, for decades.

#3. At some point, there will be a supply/demand shift in the U.S. dollar's relationship to
gold; just as there has been, and continues to be, in increasing numbers of the paper
currencies, of the world, just like the So. African rand, for a more recent example -- the
number of
paper currencies finding gold more & more costly, keeps growing....
like proverbial falling dominoes....the list keeps growing..

If anyone knows of a source of info, a record-keeping of this kind of data, a web-site/url,
etc., please let me know.

Thanks mucho, your fellow-kitcoite, in search of the
ever-brighter light of 'gold'...
David Blair Macrory

P.S. There is something more subtle & sinister, than what may immediately meet the eye/or
conscious this world-wide phenomenon of more and more national
currencies, nations, and their businesses, corporations, & individual citizens....being priced
out of the gold market.....that is...more & more of the world is discovering that gold is
becoming dramatically more costly....
very rapidly, in their currency.
There is underlying, accelerating shift
of ultimate power & control ( -he who holds the gold, makes the rules ) ,
to those power-centers, capital-centers, instituions, etc., of most concentrated wealth...
who are holding the greatest amounts & %-ages,
of U.S. dollar-denominated, liquid, capital/assets,
on an international scale.

The tide will turn;
it always does;
ominously, for the prospects of a free-world in the next millennium,
there will be only very few,
and very large 'boats'...
that will rise...
in the next...
rising bull tide...
in gold.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:25 - ID#206298)
@ goldfever
I already own a very large basket of gold stocks and will buy more as time goes on. What I am asking you is what do you see that has changed in recent days or weeks, that make you believe right now is the time to buy?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:35 - ID#253246)
James ***buy more ABX just for its silver

Barrick has over 400 million oz of silver at just 2 of its mines. ( Pierina in
Peru and Pascua in Chile ) . Peter Munk claimed in a Feb 98 interview
in the G & M that ABX has the largest proven and proble silver reserves
in the world. ( This silver will come out of the ground not the bullshit
silver you get with Silver Standard and APEX )

Alot of people post here say that ABX will get burned if gold goes over
$400. Barrick can roll contracts foward for 15 years ( see page 11 in
annual report ) I don't think I'll see gold stay over $400 for 15 years
in a row in my lifetime.

Buy some more for poor George ( bush ) he was born with a silver spoon
in his mouth

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:37 - ID#248180)
PM Exports - Russia from INTER FAX
 President Boris Yeltsin signed a decree Saturday on the export of nonferrous metal concentrates con-taining precious metals in 1998. This allows Russian companies to export 2,162 kilos of gold, 192,473 kilos of sil-ver, 2,000 kilos of palladium, 550 kilos of platinum, 110 kilos of rhodium, 25 kilos of iridium and 50 kilos of ruthe-nium. Under the decree exports are allowed if their proceeds are spent on production maintenance, reconstruction and technical modernization.

Gandalf the White
(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:39 - ID#433301)
gold charts in national currancy
of course there are these charts !
prepared by a Univ of BC Prof in Vancouver, B.C. Canada

and thou will be now able to see the light in any nation.
Watch out for the Orcs !
Gandalf the White

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:42 - ID#35049)
clone -thanks
thanks for pointing me to robnoel,spud master & winston I'll follow.
Appreciate response and advice on "power. A perspective that I am just beginning to appreciate in a strange sort of way. Your talking to a real estate developer. This going to some kind of a year!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:43 - ID#259400)

Try this Url. I think it will get you what you need.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:47 - ID#286284)
ABX - 10 mil. ozs hedged (!!)

ABX states in today's press release that it has sold forward 10 mil ozs through the year 2000. I hadn't realized that it was this much. Begs the question - will they produce 10 mil ozs between now and Dec. 2000? Given the info in the press release, it appears not. I don't follow this issue closely but they seemed to be pegged at 1.5 mil ozs for the rest of this year, and 3.75 mil ozs for the next two years. This works out to 9 mil ozs through the year 2000.

If they have in fact hedged more than they will produce, they cannot be said to be "hedging" -- the more appropriate term is "speculating." - it is somewhat justifiable for a gold producer to hedge production, but a naked short? Imagine that!

Does anyone have better ABX production numbers to correct me?

sam__A ( not sam! ) .

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:48 - ID#286284)
@Tantalus Rex re massive ABX short position

The vast bulk of this short position is a hedge against an ABX convertible debenture issue -- that is, holders of the notes go short ABX and thereby strip the note of the ABX component leaving just the "coupon". Nothing wrong with that.

Salut, la.

Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:51 - ID#57232)
The US has a boatload of debt - but so do Germany/France/Japan
goldfevr: Why don't you look at one of those semiannual books written by that very senior well-respected international economic firm, The Economist, before you say, 'give me a break'? I am looking at the book titled, 'The Economist guide to Global Economic Indicators' published in 1994 when the US was not doing as well as now. There are over 100 graphical and tabular comparisons of the major countries of the world, so you can compare the USA to Germany, France, and Japan, among other countries. I will focus on net public debt as percentage of GDP, 1990, on page 79. The USA at 32% actually fared slightly better than the EU average. Germany had 28%, and France 30%. Japans debt at that time was nonexistent. One can continue making comparisons with dozens of graphs, and tha amazing point is that the US does not look that bad when compared to the European countries. So are the august experts at The Economist wrong? Perhaps not.
To be fair, The Economist can only compare published figures, not hidden debt like our hidden entitlement debt of 20 trillion. But Germany and France also have hidden entitlement debts of comparable magnitude. This is hinted at another graph on page 71 where social security spending as a percent of GDP is revealed. Germany spent 14.9% of GDP, France 8.1%, Japan 7.7%, and the US 8.9%. The point I am making here is that Germany and France have a staggering social security debt load -- nearly twice ours.
I thought at first that The Economist had it all wrong. How could the USA, the World's largest creditor, be in comparable shape to Germany and France? Now I am not so sure they are wrong. If Japan fails to come out of its tailspin, we will know for sure that they are no longer the worlds largest creditor, won't we?
My take on all of this if I am right -- and I challenge others to find more current facts -- is that the EURO is not now a serious threat to the US dollar. As others have said, the only real threat to the US dollar will be when a major economic recovery develops somewhere-- SEAsia? Europe? Until then the US dollar will remain supreme. This is a variant of Gresham's law -- people tend to hoard the strongest currency IMHO, until it folds, before they buy that noninterest bearing currency, gold.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:51 - ID#434108)
BCIWN @ 18:25// the FINAL SHIFT....
I don't know.....exactly...
it is amazing.....and it is very clear....
The 'shift'.... has happened..
the...'cross-over' has occurred.....
I could diverge & digress into all sorts of explanations...
mutual-fund managers' waking-up.....etc., etc.,....

bottom-line is....::

the 'tide' has just shifted.....

there maybe another attempt, or two, to the upside, for the DOW?DJIA/stocks/nasdaq....
I still think/feel...they may attempt a 'stab' at 10,000 -DJIA.

i see a continuing, stubborn resolute ....
pattern of accumulation...
among the broad-base of almost all physical commodities....
for several weeks and even months, now.

The U.S. dollar, and it's supposed "leaders", are history.

is waning.

August is the fulcrum, the turning-point.

David Blair Macrory

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:53 - ID#259400)
Sorry about that. I have no idea where that came from. Let me play around and see if I can get you the correct url.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:56 - ID#434108)
SILVER & SSC are one in the same//buy/buy/buy
Date: Tue Jul 21 1998 12:47
goldfevr ( SILVER ready to 'scream' to the up-side/re-emphaizing my last Sunday's post,
7/19/98 ) ID#434108:
Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 15:14
goldfevr ( Silver's bull-market, has been previously identified. ) ID#434108:
From 7/19/98 post, at 22:33; regarding Silver's bull market.
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


Return to Kitco Homepage

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Jul 21 1998 19:58 - ID#347267)
More comments: (I just caught up after missing 3 days of Kitco)
All: Central Fund of Canada, which I view as a good indicator of gold and continue to hold in both ( wife and I ) our IRA accounts, is hanging in there. See:
Gold basis August: What if the lows of January and June form a magnificent six month double bottom???
Morgan: I echo the sentiments of the others: Be very careful; play the mini contracts at first if you must. If you do get lucky, take the money and run; don't give it all ( and more ) back!! Been there, done that.
Tolerant 1 ( celebrating the breaking of a mini draught here in the NC mountains; blessed rain,temp dropped from 90 to 74 in 18 minutes!! ) I raise my glass of sour mash to you!!
Sharefin: I was so relaxed I almost fell out of my chair, especially after my long drive of last night, until you hit me with the punch line! Man that woke me up!!!
JTF: Re a leader with brains: The trouble is he is insiduous; just look at how he has worked the system with the executive orders! His brains are not all you know where! I have reached the conclusion that he will not leave office early; he has prepared his ground too well. We must ALL start working getting out the vote, and pray we get the opportunity to utilize it.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:01 - ID#259400)
I give up. I'm not smart enough to figure out how to post the url. Sorry.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:04 - ID#57232)
One last thought about Real Estate as a hedge -- might work
All: Earlier today we talked about inflation returning to the US, following a dropping dollar. Will we have rising real estate prices, or dropping real estate prices when this happens? This question is really hard to answer, because if we have a market/dollar meltdown, the whole economy will melt down into a depression, taking real estate with it. But -- if AG does his generally excellent job, the markets and the dollar drop slowly, we will have stagflation not depression this time, at least. Dollar down, markets down, gold up, real estate up. All depends on whether our debt/credit level is high enough to trigger an economic collapse if the markets head south. Perhaps AG can pull one more out of the hat before y2k. Who knows? His alternative -- depression -- would not be a pretty sight.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:06 - ID#259400)
Gandalf the White posted the correct url at 19:39. Wonder how he did that?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:11 - ID#254112)
@JTF: Germany, France, and Japan compared to USA
You bring up a good question.
There is no doubt that the US economy "is ipressive", as AG stated today.
The wealth of the inhabitants is a different question.
Japan has the highest savings rate with 12% of the income of the citizens. France I think is next with 11% and Germany follows with a little over 10%.
By comparison: US citizens save 3.5% of their income. What makes the situation worse in USA, her citizens are deepest in debt. It's not just the trade balance which makes the USA a debtor nation.

I happened to be in Austria early december last year. I Happened to read sales statistics about the Austrian Philharmonic, a one ounce gold coin.
They sold in Austria 15,000 in October, 80,000 in November, and they expected to sell far over 100,000 in December.
Austria has about 10 million inhabitants. Let's assume the Austrians bought a minimum of 200,000 Philharmonics last year. Multiplied by 26, that would mean that the Americans could have bought 5.2 million ounces of Eagles last year. I read 1996 they bought about 500,000 ounces in Eagles.

The individual Japanese people and the Europeans have the habit to avoid debt and to save. In spite of all the wealth which we can observe in USA, it's not built on solid ground.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:14 - ID#411112)
I hold my head in shame,I been posting here for a long time and I just found out about the full text

feature...I blame it on something I did in
the 70's

Aragorn III
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:19 - ID#212323)
(THOUGHTS!) by ANOTHER...I certainly DO like the way the numbers play out
Gold is effectively revalued to $1,800 per gram, or equivalently $56,000 per troy ounce ( ballpark figures ) .

Perhaps that sounds preprosterous to you, but I submit that it is not.

What does sound preposterous is that an institution can take paper and ink with very little effort and assign/create whatever value they choose. What is to stop this same institution from throwing a little gold into the deal as an accounting tool---THOU SHALT NOT CREATE ( from this day forward ) A DOLLAR OF VALUE ON YOUR LEDGERS WITHOUT FIRST GAINING POSSESSION OF .00055 grams ( .000017 oz ) GOLD.

Think about it. The intitutions ( Central Banks...particularly the ECU ) are free to do this, and what's to stop them. The citizens certainly wouldn't complain. Suddenly their paper money would have an inherent value, not just a confidence-based value. This scheme to end USDollar hegemony is nothing short of brilliant.

Too often the forest is not seen because the trees do get in the way. Individuals often see a situation as us ( people ) against them ( Govts, CB's, etc ) when in fact the battle lines are drawn in unexpected places, allying us ( people ) with some of them ( CB's such as the ECB ) against the rest of them ( the US Govt ) . Accept it.

Any right-thinking individual should easily see that gold is the great equalizer in the world of international economics. No one can be cheated when value is exchanged for equal value in the marketplace--whether domestic or international. The problem we face today is that few people recognize value...they have for too long been lead to believe that paper with ink has value according to the design and country of origin. They do not recognize the true value of gold ( as money ) as a store of wealth for the future purchase of items in need.

I shall not mince words. When I refer to a Dollar value you may equate that with a Euro value as they are nearly at par with each other ( as currently perceived ) . There is approx. 1,400 Billion dollars of total currency value on account among the 11 European Monetary Union member nations. For the launch of the Euro, it was decided that approx. 50 Billion dollars in value would be held in the European Central Bank as foreign exchange reserves. ( Please notice that you don't hear much talk about what percentage will be held in any specific nation's fiat currency...all attention is on "How much will be gold," as all paper is for appearance only, as I will further explain ) . To announce that 15% of the reserves will be gold is to say that the ECB will hold approx. 25,000,000 ounces of gold ( 25 Million ) as backing for the 1,400,000,000,000 dollars of total currency value among the member nations.

The Euro will NOT be a fiat currency if this ratio is maintained for any future "creation" of euro dollars by the ECU. Think in these terms: a new measuring system has been created for gold to supplant the troy is called the Euro. The Euro is the mass equivalent to .00055 grams and also .000017 troy ounces of gold. As an individual, you may choose to hold your wealth in raw, bullion form, or for spending purposes you may exchange it for equivalent recipts ( called Euro's ) in coin or paper form. ( It is simply not practical to use physical gold as money...a coin of only one gram would be worth 1,800 Euro's ( and notice here I do no longer state the value in dollars as the true USDollar would be worthless ) . ) Inflation is arrested as the gold reserves grow in proportion the circulating currency...the money in circulation, when tallied, represents the total weight in Euro's held by the ECU.

It had to be done in this round about way...both to buy time and to facilitate a smooth transition. Imagine the pandemonium if the ECU announced simply that 25 Million ounces of gold ( worth 7,500 Million dollars by today's misguided notions ) would be held as the sole exchangeable reserve ( payable on demand ) for 1,400,000 Million currency units called a Euro that each individually represent a modern-day purchasing power that is on par with a dollar. They would be ridiculed and laughed into extinction. Further, apparent disparity would result in a pricing turmoil. The typical citizen and shopkeeper do not know how to value things outside of the monetary system that they've grown accustomed to. If asked to price things in gold, they would make the mistake of using the spot price, which is currently far too low to be used for a worldwide monetary exchange rate. So instead, a grand production was made that approx. 50 Billion dollars of foreign exchange reserves would be held, and that 15% would be gold...that is to say, 25 million ounces. The citizens will be gently lead into the new age of a worldwide as money. Nations with gold or abundant resources for international trade will no longer be held hostage to the nation with paper that is stronger than all other paper.

You will agree that gold as money could be accomplished smoothly in NO OTHER WAY THAN THIS. Meaningful wealth on the world stage would be predicated upon how much gold an individual or a nation owned. It is better to trade your dollars for gold now, at the misguided exchange rate of $300/oz, rather than move into the new era with only the paper in your wallet or the digits in your account. On the open market, with a Euro and a dollar's purchasing power on par ( initially ) , it would not take long for gold to reach the exchange rate of $56,000 per ounce as people tried to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.

Yes, I do like the way the numbers and the rationale add up.

It wouldn't be me if I didn't ask...
got gold?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:19 - ID#288295)
COMEX stock


1,082,288 up 22,376


83,074,094 dn 801,364 new 12 year low

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:21 - ID#284255)
I am a scared bear here.
US Swing chart
Australian SPI index - intraday.

The swing chart is showing a repeat of the patterns pre the Oct crash.
During this swing down phase I would have to say that I would be on FULL ALERT FOR A CRASH over the next 2 weeks.
I would be holding no long positions in any stocks.

The OZ index is also failing at these levels.
After a classic retracement.

This is a warning - we are now in a very high danger zone.

Many, many months ago I called for the dow to hit 9300 as it's next leg high.
This has been reached.
If you look at the dow chart from 94 onwards you can mathematically extropolate this 9300 figure.

Cheers and be warned - high alert till will pass this swing down cycle.
All paper could well burn badly here.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:21 - ID#57232)
China adds 6 ICBM's this year, all aimed at US

How odd -- I thought the Communist Chinese would respond to WJC concilatory speeches in China, and respond accordingly. Were they aimed at the US while WJC as in China? Why not detarget even one as a sign of good will? I think as punishment all of WJC's cronies should all be relocated at targeted ground zero, wherever it is. Would be fitting justice, I think.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:27 - ID#335190)
We Now SEE the Union Leadership SELL-OUT the worker/citizen/taxpayer @ Corporate Law Will WIN.
July 21, 1998

Judge orders GM, UAW into arbitration, warns against delay tactics

FLINT, Mich. ( AP-CP ) -- A U.S. federal judge has formally ordered the United Auto Workers and General Motors Corp. into arbitration over the automaker's claim that the union's lengthy strikes are illegal.

"There may be meetings, but there's nothing going on," said Norm McComb, first vice president at UAW Local 659. "Everybody's busy getting ready for the courts."

If GM were to win its case, it likely would ask for a back-to-work order from the court and seek financial damages that could bankrupt the union.

Most legal experts say they doubt the automaker will win, but GM lawyer Frank Jaworski was upbeat. "We're very pleased that the court has basically granted us what we asked for last week," Jaworski said. "We're confident legally in our position, despite the many so-called experts that make comments about our legal theories and proceedings."

NOTE: The Clayton Anti-Trust Act of 1914 was supposed to have given labor relief from action under the Serman Law, especially the issuance of injuctions in labor disputes. The historians Louis M. Hacker and Benjamin B. Kendrick write: " Article 20 [of clayton act] seemed to say that injuctions could not be issued to prevent persons from quitting work, from engaging in peaceful picketing, from carrying on primary and secondary boycotts, from collecting and paying out strike benefits, from assembling and, in fact, from doing all those things they could legally do in times of no industrial disputes." ( The United States Since 1865, p. 720 )

But in 1921 and after, the U.S. Supreme Court not only decreed otherwise but added to labor's woes. As the same authors put it, "Not only had the Clayton Act, the Supreme Court was to show, not freed organized labor from the weight of legal displeasure but it had even added an additional burden, to wit, that injunction proceedings could be brought against trade unions by private individuals instead of by the federal department of Justice alone as under the Sherman Law." ( p. 720 )

USofA Constitution and Bill of Rights EH! Worker/Citizen/Taxpayer when on Strike ( Property right to withdraw their labour ) are not Citizen's? Watch how smooth the Union Leadership allow this strike to close down. Corporation's has now got what it wants from this strike, and the Union Leadership will now "police" the rank and file actions, and get the worker's back on the job. Yes, jobs will now go off shore. Why not, this is what elected Progressive Internationalist's want.

Yes, the union leadership will make a lot of noise, will blame the courts, but, not the courts support/delivery of the corporation's control of the law and those judge's of the people's courts. Freedom/Liberty/Justice for whom?

Take Care.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:31 - ID#284255)
Email chatter reminder
On January 7th, 1998, Watertown experienced a devastating ice storm. We lost our power on January 8th, 1998 at approximately 8:30 a.m. With our home being all electric, this meant no heat, water or lights. Initially, we thought we would only be without power for a couple of
days but days turned into weeks ( three weeks to be exact ) .

Fortunate for us, we had a wood stove so we were able to keep plenty warm and do all our cooking on top of the stove. As far as drinking water, we had filled a few 2 liter bottles of water the night before but this would only last a couple of days. Our neighbors had a pool which provided us with water to flush the toilet and bathe, only after chiseling through about 6 inches of ice on the surface of the pool!

Candles and oil lamps provided our light. Our only link to the outside world was a portable radio for those of us who had batteries! Our phone lines were also down and little did we know at the time that they would be down for about a month. Families weren't able to get through to see if their relatives were alright which caused a lot of anxiety.

Our refrigerator only kept the food cool for a few days and then we had to become resourceful and find ways to try to save whatever food we had. We gathered ice from the outdoors and put it in coolers.

No travel was allowed during the first few days because there were too many power lines and trees down which made it just too dangerous. Until the driving ban was lifted, we had to make do with what supplies we had on hand. Neighbors looked in on one other and shared whatever
they had. We had plenty of wood as we had bought for the whole season but our neighbors were coming to us for wood for their families which depleted our household supply. If this crisis went on long enough, our household would be without wood for heat also.

As the days turned into weeks, supplies were getting low. Once the driving ban was lifted we were able to venture into the city and seek out stores which were open. Those that were just allowed a few people in at a time with a flashlight. This was no easy task as the lines were long and stores were also running low on batteries, candles, kerosene, etc. as they were unable to get their shipments. Trucks from other states were bringing in supplies but then there was the
problem of price gouging! Money was also running low in many households because banks were not open and there were no ATMs. People were unable to go to work so therefore lost wages. We personally own our business and were not able to open. When we did, most of our
customers were staying with families out of the area and therefore, we lost a lot of our business.

A 5 o'clock curfew was also put into effect so that the work crew could work on restoring the power as well as to prevent looting. Anyone found walking on the streets or driving their cars were ticketed

Many people who were not as fortunate as we were to own a wood stove or other source of heat were forced to leave their homes and go into shelters. This caused a lot of anxiety because most people don't want to have to leave their homes if at all possible.

After a week of having no power, we resorted to a generator ( which is what a lot of people were doing ) but the supply just couldn't meet the demand so it took awhile to find one. Many people had theirs stolen from their yard as they had to be installed from outside because of the fumes so those of us who had generators had to take caution to safe guard them.

One would think that during times like this, more people would turn to the Lord in prayer. Many did, however, most people felt they were in control and thought praying to the Lord was foolishness.

One lesson we learned through this ordeal was how dependent we are on power companies and how we take for granted such easy access to food sources, gasoline, kerosene, and water supplies. Another lesson we learned was to be prepared for such disasters!

Bully Beef
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:33 - ID#259282)
Never doubt the power of the US buck right now.
If you own some use it wisely now. You can buy a lot of everything with it.Buy something that trancends boundries. Buy something in a country you feel is secure. Cause if your dollar goes down other currencies will come up correspondingly." You don't know how lucky you are
You could have run into that tree
Been struck by a bolt of lightning
Or raped by a minority."

You might even buy gold. GO GOLD!!!!!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:34 - ID#57232)
Warning noted, similarity noted
sharefin: Appreciate the post.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:37 - ID#284255)
Re: Gary North's - "Reality Check"
Gary is sending out his "Reality Check" article today.
It's an email subscription only.
And it seems that the list is already full.
I just can't log in.

Is anyone here on the email list and can they post the document here?
It's supposed to be very revealing.
And I want to see it.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:44 - ID#57232)
Savings rates
Alberich: US savings rates are lower -- I think that data is accurate. But -- consider this -- part of the reason Japan is in trouble is that they have few up and coming baby boomers in the workforce. Germany and France have more, but I believe their baby boomer population does not match ours on a relative basis. What we need to resolve this question is age-adjusted savings rates. Might not be that different then.
Here is something else -- what would you do if you diligently saved your money at a 25% rate -- and your government turnaround and squandered much of it! Wouldn't do you a bit of good, and you would be hopping mad. Well that is what has happened with all those postal savings ( via those bankrupt banks, I think ) . Now wonder Hashimoto got no confidence.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:44 - ID#349183)
Thanks @ the sharing & caring Fin!
Just reminded me I need to get out and get that generator soon!
( Got the food, etc. already )

Thanks for the great story!


MG ( Market we this gold watch new together, yes? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:46 - ID#413109)
Short Term Charts
Are not a pretty sight.
We may get that wash-out, that Old Gold predicted not too
long ago. It isn't a pleasant way to start one's vacation,
but then I like to call 'em as I sees 'em.
Long term stay cool, short term expect expect some turbulance.

Indecies also look like we may be heading into a storm.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:46 - ID#218253)
ABX!!!! A classic bottom!!!
The fact that a producer is that short at these levels is a another bell being rung. When this market starts going up it will take with it as few as possible.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:47 - ID#259282)
Sharefin ...Your last post.We experienced the same . I could have
written the letter on the ice storm. I sawed broken up broken red pine with two of my peers who wondered what all the fuss was about. Unlike me they grew up without indoor plumbing or central heating. Some refridgeration.Poachers and the like you know. Bootleggers too.I sawed 1200 linear feet of red pine 6 by 6 for 560 CDN dollars.I spent 4 days cutting and piling it for the sawyer. Gonna build me a square log shack for a squirrelin away spot on my inconspicuous back 40 acres. Cover your tracks. I'm not paranoid... everyone is out to get me.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:53 - ID#287186)
BCIWN - just a hunch and a very long term trend
But for today and tomorrow I am buying Silver on the chance
that it will be heading significantly up short term.

Long term - exerpt from previous post:
Date: Sat Jul 18 1998 18:05
Squirrel ( Snowbird - thanks for the historical perspective on Silver ) ID#287186: In your 11:04 post which included: I notice the chart begins at $4. It would be interesting to see it with the bottom series of the semi-log scale beginning with $1
So might we view today's price as a minor upturn within a several hundred year downward trend? When digital photography goes decreases demand ( the same thing for stills as happened to movies ) why not continue the downward trend to $1 or less.

Bully Beef
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:55 - ID#259282)
JTF I think your realestate is already inflated.
Someone from the US please give me an example where the cost of a home hasn't gone up in the last five years. WHEN OUR REAL ESTATE BOOM ended it crashed hard and no mistake about it. Losses of 30 to 40 %.Been there done that.. got the t -shirt.

PH in LA
(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:55 - ID#225408)
ANOTHER's numbers
Aragorn III:

Your 20:19.......Brilliant!!!!

No orcs threaten while you are on watch!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 20:55 - ID#93232)

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:11 - ID#287186)
BCIWN - re Silver
Short term for me means Y2K plus several years.
Y2K could put one heck of a peak in that chart!
My WAG on Gold
Short term - this summer/fall - down under pressure of manipulators.
Medium term - Y2K plus several years - really up.
Long term - depends on demonetization efforts.
Remember this is a WAG.
Murphy says if I buy it will go down.
If I don't buy it will go up.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:12 - ID#260108)
Please DON'T buy gold ....

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:19 - ID#37292)
@ goldfevr and general
I have enjoyed your posts...I think we may have had some of the same training re don't fight the trend, let the market tell you what it is doing, etc., and certainly we have fought the good fight in the pits together. Lots of agreement in philosophy on your posts and my thinking. But, I just have to take exception to your statement that SSC and silver are one and the same, buy, buy, buy-- ain't so no more. Maybe used to be, but not now. This is a sick stock that may not even survive -- just read the annual reports -- while silver may not be so sick. There is wide digression between the price of the stock and the price of silver with no cure in sight. Someone posted a week or so ago predicting SSC at 2 - 2 1/4 when and if silver hits 7. As a longtime SSC stockholder, I imagine I could recoup some losses by putting out call contracts to that philosophy whereby I deliver SSC at 2 on the first day the Comex touches 7 and pocket the premium or deliver the stock. My prediction for SSC when, and if, silver hits 7 on Comex is about a buck and a 1/4 to 3/8, tops, then back under a buck if silver didn't hold its gain. Could be wrong, been there before, and don't bet the farm on me....But, could also be right.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:24 - ID#327123)
@John Disney
Wake up and check your E-Mail immediately..Tom

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:25 - ID#267344)
uh, guys... the Nikkei is down almost 200 already
what's up with that? -c

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:25 - ID#412286)
I live in the NE US and where I live RE has eroded and continues to erode even with low rates and unregulated hype from the professionals for more than five years. Huge looses in real estate lie ahead as due to the leverage what was once a hard asset is now an interest rate sensitive financial asset. Inflation due to inevitable currency deterioration and stock market demise will decimate the "financial asset" ( reason for its rise ) real estate. The debt bubble will destroy real estate, stocks and bonds. Stay out of those and you might be ok.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:25 - ID#287186)
Aragorn III and I agree on a five digit figure for Gold
If Gold is monetized.
Last year I made a guestimate of the World M3
if every person reached a "developed country" level of affluence.
and divided it by the number of ounces of monetary Gold.
Holy Hazelnuts! I'm buying Gold now!
Then we throw in the political manipulation
and efforts to demonetize Gold and convert money
entirely into cyberdigits traded upon the ether.
Now I just plumb do not know what to make of it.
Y2K could certainly put Gold back on the high road!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:31 - ID#413109)
Have a look
at these long term currency charts-
You won't need to be a technician to get the message.
Intermediate, we may get a counter trend, or testing of tops
and bottoms, but the longer term trends???

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:31 - ID#335190)
July 21, 1998

Modern miners learning to cope with low gold prices

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Once, gold's hypnotic glimmer had the world in a trance, when the promise of riches was lusted after by pirates and princes, crooks and Klondikers.

Today, those dreams appear long gone, wiped from the imagination by the Asian crisis, disinterested central bankers and the largest gold mining scandal of the modern era.

With gold prices at less than $300 US an ounce, an entire industry bent on survival has been forced to mine profits from the cold new realities of a not-quite-so-precious metal.

Asia's troubled economy has hurt gold prices not only by soaking up demand, but also by triggering a massive flow of capital into U.S. money markets, experts say.

Gold -- effectively a currency as well as a commodity -- has been shunned in favor of the more lucrative instruments available to Asia-wary investors in the U.S.

In addition, all the uncertainty has prompted the world's central bankers to seek out more attractive backing for their currencies, one of gold's traditional roles.

"This is a normal part of what happens," said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Canada in Toronto. When gold was worth more than $400 an ounce, institutional investing reached a fever pitch and companies spent far too much money on borderline exploration and mining projects.

Now, companies that were overextended are disappearing, larger producers are consolidating and, eventually, the price will recover, said Ing.

"It's going to shut down a lot of the uneconomic production, and that's bullish for the industry," he said.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:35 - ID#287186)
Sorry Beamer - I just did
but only a teeny weeny bit of Golden Butter in my pans of Silver dough for flavoring and to keep the crust moist as they bake. I do hope the kitchen stays warm so the dough rises - but not too fast or it might fall. I'll need more Golden Butter later before the bread is ready to serve.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:38 - ID#348129)
@Aragorn III - $56,000 Gold?
I have an article from a couple of years back from the Northern Miner.
In it is a plan that would pay down all Gov't debt and back all US currency with actual Gold. The main actions would be to revalue Gold, and tax away a proportion of Gold mine profits ( they would still be paid thousands per ounce ) .
The plan calls for a POG of between $30,000 and $58,000 per ounce.
Everyone would be a winner, especially those who have ounces stashed away........

Rising Sun
(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:49 - ID#411331)

ROR, I totally disagree with you on your socialistic viewpoints. However, you are correct about the real estate market. I too live in the North East, Westchester County to be specific. I am in the construction business. I can tell you that as soon as the market tanks, many of these people will be screwed big time. I am currently on a project where seven houses will be built. All of them are going for 1.25 million. I believe that most of the people who are buying them are under thirty five years old. It's amazing. These houses are so big, I often think that these people don't think. The amount of energy to heat these monstrosities will be bankrupting them sometime in the future.....even if they maintain their jobs. Good night.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:51 - ID#252150)
Bufford@I fully agree about ABX's silver being a big positive.
Very few investors are aware that they are the biggest silver producer. I probably should take goldfever's advice & think about buying more, but at my age I'm very aware of Keynes' comments on long term investing. I will continue to do what I've been doing for over a year & if the JY starts to look even more sickly, I'll sell again.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:53 - ID#222231)
Aragorn 111,Squirrel, PH in LA-Please read this.

Remember to delete en from golden

The oracle substantiates your premis with very compelling arguments.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 21:54 - ID#335190)
Law & Order IMF & Russia @ SDR Loans ??????
( SDRer_A: is this SDR loan connected to the Yeltsin signs DECREE on Precious Metal Export )

Updated Tuesday, July 21, 1998 at:
NYC 9:33 a.m. London 2:33 p.m. Prague 3:33 p.m. Moscow 5:33 p.m.

IMF Statement on Russia

WASHINGTON -- ( Reuters ) The International Monetary Fund on Monday issued the following statement on Russia by First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer:

"The management of the IMF welcomes today's decision of the Executive Board to provide additional financial support in 1998 totaling SDR 8.5 billion ( about US$11.2 billion ) for the Russian Federation.

"Due to the delay in implementing these measures, the amount being made available immediately -- SDR 3.6 billion ( about US$4.8 billion ) -- is less than the amount earlier envisaged -- SDR 4.2 billion ( about US$5.6 billion ) . The difference, SDR 0.6 billion ( about US$0.8 billion ) , is expected to be made available in September, assuming that the measures are satisfactorily implemented in the meantime.

"The laws and other legal acts adopted over the last few days lay a solid basis for a fundamental improvement in Russia's fiscal position and a revitalization of structural reforms.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:08 - ID#45173)
How are my fellow contrarians? Miss you guys. I'll be around for a few hours tonight so I can actually respond to responses, if anyone is so inclined.

Looks like Greenspan and negative earnings estimates showed up with bearish news right on schedule, third week of July. Look at that long bond yelling, "Deflation! Deflation! Deflation!" Even AG himself seemed to choke on the "I" word, but it's his job to talk about how the Fed is managing inflation, since the right amount is a good thing, too much is a bad thing, and there ain't f*ch-all to be done about deflation except wait it out.

Cool and scary things on the voice technology front. I can talk to my computer faster than my Uncle in Texas can understand me. In fact, I'm dictating this.

Guess what. Certain government agencies are spending big bucks on speech recognition technology for special applications, such as listening into thousands of phone calls simultaneously for the frequency of use of certain words, then using natural language processing to figure out the context of word usage. If you fit the profile, they need to get a warrant for a human to listen in and determine the threat. Somehow this does not count as electronic surveylance without probable cause, but then neither does a cop's radar gun.

Your words are parsed and analyzed on the Net was well. I wonder what words they're looking for and what's the threshold frequency? How about "gold." Gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold. There. If they're looking for that word, no doubt I just got flagged.

Speaking of gold, it's been holding its own, considering deflationary influences. The market is going into a wait state. The bull market trend is over, just some late-stage squeaking out of growth at the safe edges. But no one seems to know what's next...


(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:10 - ID#286230)
EJ:: What software are you using for voice?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:12 - ID#207145)
The long bond was a flight to safety, not deflation.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:13 - ID#207145)
Sorry. The long bond was a flight to safety, not deflation.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:15 - ID#207145)
AG is saying
He will defend the dollar if it falls too far.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:18 - ID#207145)
I believe he is setting us up
for a rate increase.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:19 - ID#210235)
I also wasn't able to get on their list.
It will probably show up somewhere in a few days. Will send it to you if I find it.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:22 - ID#210235)
@Hey, Reify!
Have a wonderful vacation! A gulp of merlot at ya ( the strong stuff doesn't agree with me ) . The precious metals will have their day, as will we all.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:23 - ID#207145)
AGs statements
Are calculated to strengthen the dollar, bonds, and hurt Gold

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:25 - ID#255226)
Jims - Timing is everything! My first top date was 7/23-7/24 +/- looks like I should have waited. I was stopped out of my Dec Silver at 5.50 with an 8 pt loss. I'm more negative short term silver now than I was a week ago. I'm trying to sell it again in the night session at 5.68. Still looking for 4.80.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:30 - ID#31876)
This is a Subject We've Seen Before...Needs Repeating, Repeating, Repeating
Bill Fleckenstein on "Financial Engineering"...

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:30 - ID#300202)
U have gonads & strength in ur convictions. Methinks u cud not be
intimidated off this site as per ur qualification on all ur statements.
Lookin' fwd to more. Back in my box to lurk. Teddo-mon back.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:31 - ID#253246)
Vronsky*************Dines and Silver Standard


You seem to be wired into TDL , I was curious if Dines is making
any off the page comments on whether he is still a believer in
the company's management or is he selling. I'd appreciate
your thoughts on Silver Standard.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:32 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
New York Post, July 20, 1998


This is the make-or-break week for Wall Street's test of the year 2000
computer glitch - but some experts warn the tests won't prove anything.

Today, the computers will pretend it's Dec. 31, 1999, but D-day is this
Wednesday, when Monday, Jan. 3, 2000 - the first trading day of the new
millennium - will be simulated.

The tests, sponsored by the Securities Industry Association, are designed to
help the Street determine whether their computer systems can handle the
so-called Y2K problem.

[Body of article CUT]

The SIA has issued a press blackout of the Y2K testing, mandating its member
firms not to comment to the press on the results, and serving as the sole
resource for information.

"Mandating" a press blackout! How often does THAT happen? Wall Streeters
must be having insomnia this week. I guess we can call this the first
official Y2K "Blackout." And we thought it would be the lights!


(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:33 - ID#251166)
Hiya -- Why so bumbed about silver? Please talk to us. Thanks!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:34 - ID#31876)
Fleckenstein URL Again

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:36 - ID#335190)
Russian General Rohklin @ Mysterious Murder (Intrigue - Conspiracy?) TROUBLE EH!
July 14, 1998

Rokhlin's Death and Russia's Military

Despite the commonality of shortage declarations in Russia, of everything from food and consumer goods to cash and jobs, there has never been a scarcity of rumors of intrigue and conspiracy theories. Under normal circumstances, one may simply smile at this Moscow malady.

But regarding the recent murder of Gen. Lev Rokhlin, the Kremlin had better sit up and take notice -- not because there may be some truth in the rumors, but because they could become the catalyst for organized opposition.

The late Gen. Rohklin, a Chechen war hero turned politician with
outspoken views against the president and military reforms, has all
the credentials for martyr to a cause. His rhetoric against military
mismanagement, cutbacks and alleged widespread corruption
involving the upper ranks of the military in cohorts with politicians
and business moguls, had a wide constituency which could be
galvanized by his death.

The authorities say his wife Tamara killed him. They assert that her
fingerprints were on the murder weapon, she has confessed her guilt
and has been charged.

Rokhlin's supporters, however, claim it was a forced confession and
that the evidence has been rigged to cover up a politically motivated
killing. Rohklin's daughter Yelena is reported to have been told by
her mother that she confessed on orders from unidentified assailants,
who threatened to kill the rest of the family if she disobeyed. There
are even allegations that the general's home was being watched by
the security services, which were mysteriously withdrawn on the
night before his death.

In the midst of the general economic woes he and his government
now confront, President Boris Yeltsin has had to admit to military
chiefs: "We have come up against serious problems in financing army

Other military big shots, past and present, may use this opportunity
to push Rohklin's cause. And if they do not get a hearing in the
Kremlin, there may be considerable public support for them to take
matters into their own hands and put Yeltsin's assurances last week
about having enough force behind him to stop any attempts to seize
power to the test.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:36 - ID#284255)
"Russia is extremely vulnerable
"Russia is extremely vulnerable to the Year 2000 problem and an accidental launch is possible."

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:37 - ID#45173)
@Selby & blooper
Selby, I use the stuff my company makes:

Long bond a flight to safety from what? Inflation? I don't think so.
AG against gold? No one cares about gold. It is an historical accident that CB's have it. It does not figure into the monetary world. It is a commodity. Now. But later...


(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:37 - ID#207145)
Now that's comforting.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:41 - ID#207145)
Any time stocks fall steeply, stocks are sold and bonds are bought. real simple. Even I can understand.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:47 - ID#207145)
"It's the DOLLAR stupid"
AG wants to keep it up. It wants to go down because thre economy is slowing. If the dollar goes down, all that cheap crap from China gets more expensive, because it takes more dollars to buy them.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:48 - ID#207145)
And thats inflation.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:53 - ID#45173)
The Wall Street Y2K tests are a media event designed to build confidence. My advice: ignore them. Watch the 10Ks. With sharehold lawsuits hanging over them, securities firms' need to quitely disclose Y2K risks to earnings is high. These are expressed as uncertainty in the cost of remediation rather than the fall-out from failure to correct problems.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:53 - ID#335190)
Corporate Law @ Judge doing his duty eh!
July 21, 1998

Judge orders arbitration for GM

FLINT, Mich., July 21 ( Reuters ) - A federal judge Tuesday issued a formal order requiring General Motors Corp. and the United Auto Workers union to enter arbitration over the legality of the union's crippling strikes against two GM parts plants

The decision marks a legal victory for GM,

"We're very pleased," said GM attorney Frank Jaworski. "This is what we asked for last week, and we got it this week."

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:56 - ID#45173)
I don't pretend to be an expert. Maybe I'm confused. Doesn't capital running from falling equities move to short term debt instruments rather than long?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 22:57 - ID#255226)
Jonesy - I'm not bummed out on silver. The fact is I think we can see $7 this year and possibly $10+. But to get there the downward trend has to be broken and the pattern to the down side has to be completed. It hasn't. Every bottom since last years lows has been a wash out spike type low. Not a sideways trading range base building affair like we are in now. Besides I've been burned so many times over the years in late July- early Aug. with down PM's... I've learned to put my experience to work for me. I'll be a buyer when the markets gets washed out.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:00 - ID#242303)
All commodities up...except Gold.. go figure

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:02 - ID#207145)
I think they all did nicely. Long bonds are for those who think the economy is slowing, and offer the most long term appreciation. Not short term. These guys are not traders, but investors.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:05 - ID#43349)
Night rushes on
All through the night silver held steady as gold fell with the yen. There was a kind of tension in the air. A kind of calm as all waited for the dawn. Hardly daring to believe, hardly daring not to.

The market had tightened in London during the day, and COMEX stocks had fallen almost a million ounces. What was going on? No one knew.

Just a glimmer of the kind of madness seen in February after the news of Buffets foray had hit the streets. Just a glimmer, nothing more, but for the hungry traders it was electrifying, and at the same time a certain kind of cynicism held them back. So many times they had seen it rally only to fall back.

What would the morrow bring?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:06 - ID#260108)
From the look of the futures prices, traders are selling gold and
Canadian dollars to buy ....... PORK BELLIES?!!!!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:28 - ID#45173)
Gollum: How's your wife? Fully recovered by now, I hope
I appreciate your observations on the silver front. I bought a large quantity of bullion-quality silver dollars in March 'cause I like 'em and the price was good. Got about 70% Morgan and 30% Peace, most VF-20 or lower, some EF-40, and a handfull of AU-50 that escaped someone's attention. Took about a week for the dealer to round them up. Bought the same amount a couple of weeks ago at a price 18% higher than the first batch. Funny thing. Took almost a month to round them up this time, and they were all Peace, and most were in shockingly good condition, 50% VF-20, 40% EF-40, 10% AU-50. In worse times, some of these might actually have numismatic value. Lack of availability in general, lack of availability of Morgans, and price increase suggests an increase in retail demand. Current price is now another 4% over last month. Seems consistent with other dealers.

Just one guy's experience. So, who you figure's buying these things. Y2K fanatics? Or other silver dollar nuts like me who think the things, historically speaking, are practically free?


(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:39 - ID#45173)
Are the Japanese watching the DOW or listening to AG, or both?
Nikkei 225 ^N225 11:35PM 16301.90 -254.79 -1.54%

AG goes there to visit and comes back to say we got nothing to worry about inflationwise for now, Asia will provide the necessary "cross-current" to defer the need to raise rates. Good news here, sort of, like saying you don't have to worry about drowning in your sinking boat because there's going to be a drought so your boat will get hung up on the riverbed. Imagine my relief! The Japanese don't seem to be taking it that way.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:44 - ID#45173)
Now I'm really confused. Long bonds are for investors who think the economy is slowing and expect inflation?

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:44 - ID#224151)
Appreciations to Tol 1...Clone and Tantalus re 40th. I mostly Lurk these days impressed
with the many fine comments and arguments so well expressed on all the issues that
concern us so...Y2K......Inflation-deflation....Uncle Willie.....The U-S $ versus the
Euro..... etc.etc. But I remain hopeful that we can avoid the worst case scenarios that
have been painted though precautionary plans are certainly warranted. Only God has all
the answers and he aint talkin right now....or is he? In any case its my view we are
pushing the limits of this current debt based money system and the signs are increasing
that itss days are numbered. While our faith in Gold has been severly tested these last
few is helpful to me to remember that Faith has nothing to do with reason
anyhow. And the  immutable laws always seem to prevail in the final analysis. On the
Gold front, my faith right now is in some physical ..and BMG and FN paper....and what I
read as some pretty positive chart pictures for same. Namaste!

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:45 - ID#207145)
Good thinking concerning Asia deferring a raise. But not for long. We have an inverted yield curve. The 10 year yields less than the Fed Funds Rate. This tells me the economy is slowly sinking, along with the dollar real soon. I'm trying to use common sense here.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:47 - ID#433143)
Dragon Dictate 2.5 is pretty good for dictation..

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:50 - ID#207145)
When bonds top out, and rates start up ( 4th quarter ) , GOLD WILL RISE ALONG WITH RATES AND BONDS WILL LOSE MONEY. tHE 4TH QTR. WILL BE STRONG. Sorry bout the caps.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:50 - ID#284255)
Here's another view of the swing charts.
Here I have outlined the cycles with the heavy white lines.

The yellow arrows point to the similarities with Oct.

The next two weeks will prove the depth of the fall but we are definately in a high risk area.
The market could well be 3000 ponits lower in two weeks time.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:50 - ID#242303)
EJ what price were you paying for them.
A friend just sold a bunch of Morgans to a dealer and was paid price of silver, no premium. Most were EF. He needed the money.

(Tue Jul 21 1998 23:58 - ID#207145)
We'll let the dust settle it.
Cause I would be the 1st to admit that I don't know for sure.Do you?