Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:08 - ID#45173)
@G-Nutz, Blooper, sharefin
G-Nutz, do you use Dragon? I'd like to get you a copy of VoiceXpress to see what you think. Post your email addr if you're interested.

Blooper, Geez. Ya don't hafta shout. Ok, I get it. I get the sense that equity capital in the US hasn't even discovered bonds yet. We got a long way to go before gold sees any serious domestic flight capital action.

sharefin, Got a new Amex card on my new job, exp. date 1/00. The Amex card I finally got at my last job in Feb 1998 also had a 1/00 exp. date. I asked a guy who started two months before me at my new firm and he's got a 1/00 exp. date. Same with another guy I asked who started four months before me. What a coincidence.

Let's have a contest. If you can find an Amex card with an exp. date after 1/00, you win an all-expenses paid vacation in Indonesia leaving Dec. 31, 1999!


(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:10 - ID#45173)
Paid $6.40 each.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:20 - ID#207145)
Dumping on Japan might be futile, in a counter-cyclical kind of way.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:22 - ID#207145)
I'm glad you have it figured out. I don't. Que sera, sera.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:22 - ID#433172)
End of the script
Ever run out of pat answers, logical strings of habitual rationalizations based on your view of yourself? No more I say and you say....silence... mabe a new thought will come based on ....something different.
That could be where human society is now, including our economy, our systems of pay and do. End of our script, after all how many recessions, how many booms and busts must we endure befgore it all becomes disgusting.
For what? Why amass fortunes? For our children..ha ha The worse thing I can imagine for my kids is money, to hoist them above their peers.
I am bullish on man, bearish on his worship of the titmasters. It's almost over as many of you have surmised.
When a daydream comes back to it's point of origin, it moves very fast. Like crash, here I am again.
Here I am heavy tonite and it isn't even Sunday.

What does MAI stand for? Dosen't sound good.

If we can muster the guts of a puppydog the major powers of nature will let us off the hook. But if you think thats easy you don't really know puppydogs.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:26 - ID#207145)
You sound as tho you're a little cynical. Dispense with the money huh?
Hell, we're just having fun with these cosmic cycles ever turning.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:28 - ID#45173)
I didn't mean I have "it" figured out, just that I understand what you're saying, dense as I can be at times. As far as "it" goes, it just so happens I brought back an Oct. 10, 1999 newspaper with me from my time travels and it says... Aw, sh*t. My dog pissed all over it. Oh, well. Suppose I'll just have to keep on guessing.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:32 - ID#207145)
The truth of the matter is: you are an OK guy, and your dog knows yellow journalism when he sees it.

Gandalf the White
(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:40 - ID#433301)
Please send me an Email to

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:45 - ID#207145)
Man, check out the RED in Asia
If it was't for India and Thialand, it would be unanimous carnage.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:48 - ID#207145)
They're not down terribly much
They're just all down.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:50 - ID#233199)
Did I miss something with SSC -?!
Silver is up and I'm down, er ah I mean SSC's down.

What give?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:53 - ID#207145)
I don't know jack s*it about you'r stock, but from what i've read tonight, you're beating a dead horse.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:57 - ID#284255)
Sorry about that - forgot to download the charts
Here I have outlined the cycles with the heavy white lines.

The yellow arrows point to the similarities with Oct.

The next two weeks will prove the depth of the fall but we are definately in a high risk area.
The market could well be 3000 ponits lower in two weeks time.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 00:57 - ID#207145)
No offense
It's late, everyones asleep. Aussies aint up yet. etc. Welcome!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:01 - ID#207145)
3 spikes and a dome???

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:04 - ID#45173)
G'Nite Blooper
and all for a while.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:04 - ID#207145)
Oct 1987
3 spikes and a dome formation?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:05 - ID#207145)
Goodnight, check you later!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:13 - ID#287186)
Pete - your Tue Jul 21 1998 21:53 is quite interesting
especially the sublink to Greenspan's support of a Gold standard.
I wonder if he still holds to that premise.
People do change their views as they accumulate evidence
and the temptations of power influence their actions.
The scenario does present an optimistic future once the dust settles.
Too bad Y2K will throw a heck of a wrench in the gears.
But then again.
It may hasten the return to a Gold Standard.
Might that be an agenda within an agenda?
Could Greenspan be out to outsmart the politicos.
They guy is getting on in years to where he could do so
and not care whose ox he gores.
He could be in a position to bring his 1967 premises
to fruition in spite of the bumbling idiots elsewhere.
He could be having fun setting this up.
I wonder if he too is a Goldbug at heart.
His 1967 paper sounds like it.

P.S. Unlike most Goldbugs - AG is in a position to DO something.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:27 - ID#433172)
I don't mean to rain on the parade,everything can be fun, I'm certainly enjoying it all and I do enjoy your optimistic views. Cynics enjoy events with as much mirth as anyone.
I hate being heavy, not my style, but sometimes that darker view ocludes the sport in things.
Going on gold and silver would help immensly my view of our collective future....thats it! Our collective future, thats whats at stake. Will our options be limited by nature, or by Mr. Big, or is it Ms Big? Whichever, they are getting Bigger.
All I'm saying really is that the future will be much less secure than the past has been...and require more courage to comfront.

The dollar is strong because we won the Battle of Midway...and June 6th...and the Iraq fight. America has been strong and therefore the dollar.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:29 - ID#284255)
I'm just going by the cycles.
The swing follows the momentum of 5000 odd stocks.
And shows accumulation/distribution cycles.

It seems to me that when the market breaks upwards in a leg there is strong accumulation.
Half way through the upleg distribution takes over.
So we have a strong up cycle followed by waves of distribution as the sellers sell.
This creates the down waves while the index is still climbing.
Then there is a surging wave where new buyers come in that think it's going higher.
This creates the new upsurge that is followed by failure.
This is where we are now.

Since Oct. the cycles are somewhat erratic due to poor market internals on this last leg up.
I feel we have just completed this last upsurge off which we will now fail.

There is a similarity which is a bit shortened time wise which could lead to a repeat of Oct.

We are now at a very important cusping point.
Failure here could lead to a major sell-off.
At least that is how I read the chart.

Sorry not to be responding to posts but major renovations happening.
I have 5 workers working on my home getting it ready to sell.
Full speed ahead.
Just time to pop in occasionally.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:44 - ID#250121)
Please refresh my memory

Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 00:20
blooper ( Aurator ) ID#207145:
Dumping on Japan might be futile, in a counter-cyclical kind of way.

what did I say?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 01:47 - ID#285392)
APH and Elliot Wave S&P projections made a month ago and very accurate
APH forecast a rise in the S&P and was right on. Here is an Elliot Wave site that did the same thing and included a prepared chart made in advance of the move. They expect a 1275 S&P after a short pause.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 02:17 - ID#287186)
MoReGoLd, Aragorn III, PH in LA, Pete - another verification of $35,000/ounce
If, on the basis that the US level of affluence and thus money demand
might eventually be attained by most of the world's population,
one extrapolates the US per-capita M3 to the world's population
M3 = $5.6 trillion, US pop. = 270 million, per capita = $21 thousand
World pop. = 5.9 billion,
Total World Gold = 3.5 billion ounces
1/3rd held by Financial authorities - {I thought they held more}
per capita Gold = 0.6 ounces {calculated from Total}
US$21,000 / 0.6 ozt Gold = US$35,000 per ounce of Gold.
The above figure is even higher if non-monetary gold is subtracted...
Triple if the 1/3rd figure is correct, Double if it is 1/2
{middle of next to last section under "A Dollar-Euro World"}

(Wed Jul 22 1998 02:26 - ID#240266)
Recently I was called a "Survivalist" when I said I thought
a prudent food supply would be at least a year's worth.I don't
worry about my immediate family but I'm wonderin' about those other
folk.It seems that the idea of all this technology failing is
just too almost sacreligous to consider...yikes!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 02:34 - ID#250121)
What's Your Investor IQ? ANOTHER Book for the Library. Jake Bernstein
I know what you mean. A friend of mine ( a mensana ) said to me "there's no way they're gonna let this happen." Thinks I'm crazy for buying gold. Noone should underestimate the depth of most ostrich heads, even the genius ones.

Which Windy Lake is that?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 03:09 - ID#250121)
Whistling past the graveyard, shift.
Where'd everybody go?

sure is quiet.

baaaaaa humbug

(Wed Jul 22 1998 03:35 - ID#269207)
@an tho
I am but dust, I worship you.......

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 03:39 - ID#24135)
goody goody
For Old Gold ..
I would calculate a higher increase in the jse-gold
index that the RSA analyst that forcast 1200 for the
3rd quarter.

For Example..
2nd quarter assumptions ..
rand = 5.2
gold = $ US 300
Index = 920 ( in rand terms ) .
Index = 176 ( in dollar terms )

I assume average cost across gold industry at $280/oz
thus 2nd quarter profitablility = 300- 270 = 30 $/oz

3 quarter assumptions .
gold = $ US 295
Rand = 6.3

Thus 3rd quarter cost as a result of the rand change
should = 270 * 5.2/6.3 = 223
and 3rd quarter profitability = 295 - 223 = 72 $/oz

thus the index in $ terms should rise from 176 to
176 * 72/30 = 422.

in rand terms this would be equivalent to 422*
6.3 = 2600..

Perhaps my assumption for the rand is a bit high ..
but then my gold assumption may be a bit low .. In
any event .. I believe the index is SEVERELY under-
Any comments on the above calculation would be

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 03:42 - ID#24135)
Counter cyclical comment
for Salty
I believe bloomer has you mixed up
with cheesehead..
I wouldnt stand for that.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:07 - ID#250121)
now I can understand it's easy to confuse Sam and Notsam, Earl and Erle, LGB and Liberty, but I can't for the life of me understand how I can be confused with Golden Cheesey.

Perhaps he shares my lantern jaw and derring do?

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:10 - ID#24135)
Goof up
for Old Gold ..
Sorry .. revised industry cost
to 270 but calculation still shows
280 in one spot by error. Result
is unchanged but you may have trouble
following calculation..

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:13 - ID#250121)
Give my regards to Russel

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:15 - ID#386245)
I got that 'look' again today:
You know the one.
The "this guy is crazy" look.

Was checking out a Vanguard generator. 8.8 KVA, Mitsubishi motor, pulls 7000 Watts comfortably. Gonna hook it up with a switch to the household electricity. Enough to run everything but the stove and heaters. If it turns out that I don't need it, this model is the most popular with builders--powers up the whole worksite--so will get good 'near new' resale value.

Anyhow, there I was, inquiring--just couldn't keep my big mouth shut.
"What do you need it for?" he says. Well, I don't need any more of an opening than that. Y2K, electricity, banks, grocery stores, lines, riots, ---you know---ten minutes I went on. That's when I got the 'look'. Even the back office staff came out and listened.

Didn't push my luck and mention the yeller stuff. They would've called for the padded wagon. Only loonies buy THAT stuff.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:16 - ID#222231)
Squirrel, your 1:13 post
The following is an opinion which may or may not be valid. It is plausible though.

The chaos created by an unsound world monetary system may be the reason for the current manipulation and control of PMs by CBs. Once they have redistributed gold amongest themselves and they have a full hand, gold will be revalued. You can be assurred that AG is not alone, but in concert with major CBs.

If this were true, then there is hope. This would mean a rejection of TOTAL FIAT money and a return to monetary stability.

Have no fear though, THE ELITE, with their greed and lust for power, will eventually screw the above also after a period of who knows how many years. HISTORY DOES REPEAT ITSELF, DOES'NT IT?

PS: I have many squirrels, black and grey, on my property. I love to give them corn and peanuts. They eat what they need and squirrel away the rest for another day. Some squirrels stow away what they think they will need in the future, while others keep working overtime galore and still do not have enough. Funny thing is that they do not remember where they hid their stashes or they sprout before utilizing them. Sort of reminds one of mans behavior.

Regards, BBL

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:16 - ID#250121)
Hey, there's conspiracies everywhere. THis about my young philanthropist mate, Gatesman

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:34 - ID#250121)
Frost on the Fone
Oh, you got "the look"? Been there, done that. Noone can believe that one day may be NASB. I mean on Jan 1, the sun's gonna rise, the birds are gonna tweet tweet, and everyone's gonna get hungry before dinner, what's new?

A date? 1/1/00?

I got the "Frost on the Fone" when I mentioned my enquiries to my bank from my other banker friend. May just be a consolidation, a closing of the ranks. Perhaps the first responses I had were incautious. Noone likes incautious bankers, yes?

Any Aussies gonna pitch a wager on the All Black v Wallabies Bledisloe cup game this coming Sat at Athletic Park in Wellington? Stralia back to full strength after losing half the team to injury in last All Black Test.

Buy Gold. & Steinlager.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:38 - ID#230376)
Auracious...Nick @ .........

Got a stock tip from a good friend who subscribes to a news letter that said New Zealand Power was a great buy. Would ewe care to illuminate ?
Nick, got the same look as you did yesterday @ Farm an Fleet when asking about generators. Trouble was, they want 20 golden eagles for a good one but dont know what their talking about. Would you recommend one I can look at? Thanks............eddie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 04:51 - ID#386245)
G'day Auracious
Mate, Not only did I get "the look", but these guys had never heard of Y2K!! I asked if generator sales were up and they said "No, business is slack." I said "By this time next year even YOU won't be able to get any generators from your suppliers." That's when "the look" started. Hey, the rush may not start until Dec. '99 around here. Gonna be total chaos as everyone wakes up at the last minute!! The media will be frothing at the mouth and it will not be pretty.

Now, as to rugadabee. Until the recent match the all blacks hadn't been beaten in a million years. Odds on two in a row??? I play the odds--and they ain't good!!! We better ask Crusty. Remember he is an Aussie ( Yank, South African,Turk,Dwarf Master ) . I think where the Wallabies are concerned he is an Aussie. Then again, chameleons can change colour.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:01 - ID#250121)
Power New Zealand?
Must admit to severe prejudice against NZ stocks, the market is still hovering around 55% of 1987 highs, has tested 45% and will, IMHO go to 20% of 87 high of 4000 near enough.
Now, you might make some mileage out of collapse in NZ$ ( vis a vis the greatest currency in the world the US$ ) but, IMO, you should think of NZ market as being too closely dependent on Asia for comfort.

I doubt any electricity supplier in NZ is Y2K compliant, the recent comission into the Mercury Energy Power cut fiasco in Auckland earlier this year has revealed negligence on the part of Mercury in neglecting to maintain adequate power supplies.

Suggest you purchase physical gold, even gold kiwis. on the QT

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:03 - ID#386245)
G'day ersel
I think anything with a Briggs and Stratton or Honda motor is pretty good. Someone wrote a very good post about generators a few months ago. Has anyone saved it???

Good thing about generators is--you are converting paper into a hard, useful asset. Even if you never use it, it will have good resale value. In a pinch, it will be worth its weight in gold. In a year and a half its value could go up dramatically!!! cheers, N.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:06 - ID#185448)
The look
YOU? Surprised by THELOOK?? Sad but true - Wise decision not to mention the yellow. They call me Goldilock in certain circles over here. But Im well reputated as a looney. Counter-strategy is inner emigration and that ole latin Si-tacuisses-philosophus-mansisses-thing. ( = Shut up and they continue to believe youre a philosopher ) . It works. Remember-Ignorance is just a short-term pain.

Morn` Duke Wellington, hope the garlic grows well.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:12 - ID#250121)

Salud! You're in good company at kitco, yes indeedy.
Now, as a confirmed contrarian, myself, I have a FEAR of the day when those who now stare non-comprehendingly at our goldbuggery suddenly "rush for the exits" as Alan calls it.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:16 - ID#250121)
In the future, those who can fixit will mixit
My 12 yo Briggs & Stratton got drowned in the floods last week. Water over the top of entire motor, Haven't had a chance to have a look. Any thoughts? Perhaps you could email me

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:21 - ID#386245)
Let's say you lash out and spend $2500 on a generator. Big mother. Enough to power your whole house ( less big heating appliances ) . Get an electrician to hook it up to your power board ( circuit breakers etc. ) . Get it inspected and legally OK.

Now, Y2K cometh.

Scenario #1-- shirt hits the fan. No electricity. You go out, flip a switch and carry on as usual ( cause you have stored plenty of fuel ) .

Scenario #2--Y2K is a fizzer. Now you have a choice. Keep it for future emergencies. Hire it out to builders. Flog it for $2000. You have just paid $500 for insurance.

In #1 it is literally worth its weight in gold. Make sure you chain the sucker down so it doesn't 'walk'. Also be prepared to defend it, as you will be the only one in the neighbourhood 'making noise' and having your lights on. cheers, N.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:22 - ID#250121)
Shallots sprouting handsomely, still awaiting garlic. Been very wet. Fred, Can you translate local commentary about the ECU that may be different from the main-stream. What are extremes of view of the ECU on the Danube? Amongst the literati? Amongst the Political Rainbow of viewpoints in Europe?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:23 - ID#230376)

She'll be right, mates. Thanks for your thoughts. Are either or both of youse thinking of taking in a couple of boarders or bed and breakfast for why too kay? If so, make my reservations for me and the missus Christmas week through May.....At least it'll be warm down under.

" Indeedy " .........Cheers from the chilly Midwest..

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:36 - ID#386245)
G'day Fred/
Long time no see!!
Mate, I am preparing for 'inner peace' whilst I put up my "look" barriers. I have inner peace caus I know my family will have a fairly 'normal' standard of living in a crisis and that I will have the means to help my neighbours. If Y2K does not turn out to be a 'big deal', I shall be eating slightly out of date tuna on rice for a coupla years. Hey, I LIKE tuna on rice. I am also spoiled by electricity. I do, however, have a lifetime supply of candles, kerosene, propane etc. I LIKE camping and will eventually use it all. When the big"I" ( inflation ) hits, I will even save money.

Auracious--care package consisting of water wings and lawnmower is on its way!!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:41 - ID#185448)
My belief as for mother-of-all-bulls-day is not a vertical move to the moon scenario, but rather a upward tendency lasting for a longer period most likely spiced with some dramatic verticals. No fear.

The events that may trigger that laziest-of-all-mothers-of-bulls-ever may be more dramatic and may justify a certain amount of fear at least in some areas of this globe. But as a declared neoclassical non-doomsayer Im rather interested what future may bring. And Im living in a rather safe environment. And Im prepared for the Wurst.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:41 - ID#230376)
Hey ewes guys.........

Silver is UP 11 cents on the COMEX . Que Pasa ????

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:53 - ID#43349)
Even sweeter than freshly squeezed orange juice is squeezed silver.

Unless you're short, of course. Then it's kind of bitter.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 05:59 - ID#43349)
One more dime and we go to the moon

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:00 - ID#230376)
Bart's Thingie.....

on the top o' da page is broke....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:01 - ID#230376)
@ Gollum....

Where do I put in my buy stop?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
Excerpts from Greenspan; Asia, Russia, IMF etc.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:08 - ID#250121)
Is that Wrst like the ice ages? Wrm & Mindel?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:09 - ID#250121)
ice ages, we're talking ice ages and imperfect auratorial memoriy
and Gnz & Riss?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:13 - ID#250121)
time to slip into some woollies
Passing the TORCH OF FREEDOM to ya up overs


(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:13 - ID#26793)
Russian businesses say IMF bailout will make things worse, not better.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:16 - ID#255226)
July 21,22:25 short silver filled 5.67

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:17 - ID#230376)
Some of us .........

have to work.....bbl

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:18 - ID#26793)
Japanese banks are dumping their U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. stocks

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:19 - ID#269207)
and tho, I be but dust
I worship thee, Dreamer...for I did flesh that dream of mine, ever so tediously, from the fabric of my mind..and made it real for all time..yet
dreamer..I still worship thee..for the cost to me..was beyond all rhyme..
or reason to who be the dreamer..thee or me..

I have been, to the golden hand mine...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:20 - ID#43349)
Hard to say. In my opinion it's going to move till at least Friday afternoon. I think someone has spent a couple of weeks holding silver in a very narrow range while the squeeze play was set up. Now with a few days to go until options expiry the trap is being sprung. Lnodon is in short supply and COMEX is dropping rapidly. It's going to be interesting to see who is being caught. Wonder if they end up coming to old man Buffet on bended knee.

Look at Hecla. Yesterday it traded as low as 4 1/2. Even as silver started it's move. Today's action will be interesting. Not only do we have the squeeze but fund manager's have a little cash on hand looking for action since they've been getting into defensive position's lately. We could have a lot more fireworks for the end of July than we had for Independance day.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:22 - ID#26793)
Barrick Gold news.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:23 - ID#284255)
Art Bell interviews Gary North North.ram

Note there is a space between Gary and North.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:25 - ID#26793)
Analysts expect Central Banks will prop up yen and cap the dollar today.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:29 - ID#43349)
September silver
Has hit 5.69 and rising. Hong Kong market has just closed. Just a few more pennies and anything goes.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:31 - ID#26793)
Gold and Silver dealer reports big profits

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:43 - ID#185448)
Some comments upon OhSuzECU:

As I posted before ( Oh how I love to cite myself! ) EMU and by that ECU was a fact long time before that implementation-brimborium for the crowd in spring 98. By that policy all over Europe had been pro EURO for the last years. Thus public sentiment was influenced strongly by governmental propaganda and is rather pro. It is strongly pro in countries that expect an economic boost by a stronger currency than their present one. It is not so strongly pro in hard-currency-countries and among people, who have a strong sentimental binding to their currency.

There was an law-suit filed by several well-reputated german university-profs against the implementation of the EURO which was dismissed by german supreme court ( or was it the supreme constitutional court?? ) ( yes, I think it was ) . They were also warning as far as the economical outcome is concerned.

Public, as well as a high percentage of the so called literati dont know nothing at all, and I mean nada, berhaupt nix, about EMU, EURO, macroeconomic implications, and tats a rather sad thing, as everybody has an opinion. It is a hard thing to receive valid information about the ongoing processes, even from official sources, it is an even harder thing to get informations about the economical implications. But what can one expect in the light of the still unknown question re the backing of the EURO. ( I want to repeat: Dont take Duisenbergs comment about the 10-15% Gold backing for a valid information! and dont forget: 15% of nothing is not much, but 10% of everything is a lot. We have no information so far, about at what price AU will be valued!! )

The economic framework of Europe is mixed, there is a very high percentage of unemployed workers ( in parts of Spain up to 20%! ) which is directly influenced by dramatic cuts in public spending as well as also dramatic cost-cuts in companies, which made ( amongst others ) share-prices soar within the last 12-18 month. Inflation is low, primarily because of the governmental efforts to fulfill Maastricht-criteria. They had both feet on the brakes, but it is only a question of time, when they have to lower the pressure. Unions have been moderate in demanding more money, wont be moderate for ever. This year could be the turning point.

The main problem I see is the inhomogenous economic capacities of the EMU-participants. In fact a hard currency standard will not help the poorer countries in their development but rather will trigger the demand for higher compensations to be paid by the European Union, as the classical economic remedies must be homogenous all over the EMU, not to worsen the situation. But these compensations will have to be paid by the richer economies, and their good will to do that has already been used to the bejesus. Literally spoken.

With the hope to have answered some of the questions of the man, who brought the concept of sancessual enivration to the world.

Steve in TO__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:44 - ID#287337)
Donald - Russia and the IMF . . .
A Canadian financial writer, Diane Francis, has noted that wherever the IMF goes, there are riots in the streets a few months later. She says it is one of the most destructive agencies in the world today- and I'm starting to agree.

- Steve

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:49 - ID#185448)
Icebeer ahead!
No, rather like "Blutwurst-mit-Sauerkraut", most likely unknown in Perm, Jura and even Trias.

Stumbling in admiration for your historical knowledge as well as your ability to create an .

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:51 - ID#289357)
COMEX stocks breakdown 7/21/1998


810,398 Registered
271,890 Elligible ( +22,376 )
1,082,288 Total ( +22,376 )


40,409,035 Registered ( -597,136 )
42,665,059 Elligible ( -204,228 )
83,074,094 Total ( -801,364 )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:55 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: Where are you getting your silver quotes? Kitco is not

(Wed Jul 22 1998 06:55 - ID#386245)
G'day APH

Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 06:16
APH ( Filled ) ID#255226:

July 21,22:25 short silver filled 5.67
Hope you lose your ass ( ets ) .

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:01 - ID#386245)
Are you a geologist??

You forgot Cret...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:05 - ID#210114)
Aragorn III
Gold at $56,000 an ounce.......


Live Long and prosper.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:06 - ID#185448)

No, but I recognise a rock when it rolls.

Sorry for "Kreide", Im a Cret-in.

Bully Beef
(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:09 - ID#259282)
One last note on lack of electricity.

During the Ice Storm we needed gas at work and could only get gas if we lent one of our generators to the gas station so they could pump gas. All the gas stations had to take credit because there was little cash around ...all plastic. The bank couldn't open or liquor store.We are a small community and everyone is known... good or bad. If you have a good reputation you get credfit .If you don't you don't. Keep cash on hand . Stores couldn't have taken gold because no scales or way to process it.GO GOLD!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:11 - ID#252391)
Remembering May 29th
Date: Fri May 29 1998 05:14
jims ( To Goldbug23 and ROR ) ID#252391:
Copyright  1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Very good article you recommended Goldbug. Fits in with ROR"s quote of Armstrong who I guess is saying we are going to collapse into the 3s for silver.
I'm tempted to take a swing at adding to my silver mining shares. Probably grazy given the trend. If I had a futures
account open I would buy right here at $4.91...

Date: Fri May 29 1998 05:02
IDT ( PM quotes ) ID#228128:
London gold: 292.40, London Silver 4.91

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:19 - ID#24135)
Now you see me ..
Nick ..
.. now you don't..

crusty chameleon

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:32 - ID#35571)
Try this one:

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:34 - ID#368244)
Gold and silver

silver sept. 5.66 +12.5 cents
gold +.30 cents

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:35 - ID#35571)
Or this one:

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:44 - ID#252391)
Appreciate your sharing your trades with us all.
Curious where is your stop on this silver trade?

Still long the S&Ps looking for 1250??

(Wed Jul 22 1998 07:45 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: Thank you.
Go Gold

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:05 - ID#35571)
Shorts are trying to get silver down as much as they can before the NY market opens. Sept silver now 5.635

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:08 - ID#29048)
IMF funding postponed
July 22, 1998

House GOP Delays $17.9 Billion Plea For the IMF Amid Intraparty Divisions


WASHINGTON -- House Republicans, unable to overcome intraparty divisions, abruptly put off action this summer on the Treasury's long-delayed $17.9
billion request for the International Monetary Fund. Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston ( R., La. ) announced the decision Tuesday evening following a meeting of the panel's Republicans and
Speaker Newt Gingrich ( R., Ga. ) . The committee had been scheduled to take up the IMF issue Wednesday but, instead, will wait until lawmakers return in September from the summer recess, Mr. Livingston said.

GOP Leaders' Embarrassment

Amid the Asian and now Russian economic crises, the delay is a blow to the Treasury and an embarrassment for the GOP leadership, which had promised business and farm interests it would act before the August recess. "We need time to construct a better consensus on the IMF," said Mr. Livingston. But the end result is to push the entire foreign-aid
debate up against the new fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 -- and the fall elections a month later.

"It doesn't add up to leadership," said Rep. Vic Fazio ( D., Calif. ) , chairman of his party's caucus and an Appropriations Committee member.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:10 - ID#35571)
Old war stories
Yes sir, I was there in '98 when ol' gollum sez silver's going up in the next couple of minutes. Silver, you see, had been trading flat between maybe 5.30 and 5.40 for weeks. Yes sir, Ol' gollum sez she's goin up and by damn if she didn't start to rise. That's what started the whole thing...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:11 - ID#251166)
@ APH re. your 22:57 last night
Thanks for your insights. Glad you got your fill. Agree with jims -- where'd you place your stop? Thanks!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:13 - ID#255226)
Jims - 5.75 stop, if it doesn't gap open above 5.75 on the open I'll wait about 30 minutes and move the stop down to just above the highs but no lower then 5.70. S&P 1220-1240 if it turns here.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:33 - ID#252391)
To Gollum & War Stories
Like your perspective. Yeh, we'll see if this is the start of anything or as APH suggests by his trade just a jump into resistance that will peter out like the rest and find us back at $5.40 in a week.

However, here we are at a price level the same as seen back in the late '70's. Much silver has disappeared or hanging around people's neck. What's needed is a purlonged steady rally so the yuppies when comparing performance one day realize that the metals have out performed their internet stocks. Add to that a few talking heads suggesting silver might be a good long term investment for the strong at heart and boom in they will come. That'll be at around $9 silver I suspect. Question is will the silver stocks ever folow. I'm beginning to think they have such horrible financials /balance sheets that they'll never get any respect.

It will be interesting to see which of them prove the strongest. My bet is PAASF will shine the brightest, first because it has a internet spokesman in Fliekenstein ( sp? ) and second because it has very little debt and a simple balance sheet. CDE may come to life but there has to be much overhead resistance in that puppy which fell in a straight line from 13 to 6 1/2. HL has only about 25% of its revenue from silver , 50% from base metals. Oh,, least I forget my Super Star old SSC - well there are some old longs in that number who will get out on the first rally to 1 1/4.

And yes this is how it started - with nobody much believing.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:38 - ID#252391)
Ought to have comex trading ..
Well did NY follow London or are we down on the day, already?

Got to check out for a while - will tune in later to see how this ended up or as our friend APH hopes - down.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:42 - ID#255151)
Gold, Gollum, and Silver

Gollum--Nice play by play call on Silver. Feel free to do the same for Gold! Speaking of Gold, always thought $30,000 was being way too conservative. $56,000 seems a much more reasonable figure.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:42 - ID#206358)

This e mail just post on the local site.Pick it for alert.Seem the tension just built up day by day....Probably 27/7 or 7/august..!Many indonesian chinese ladies married to the border country recently,just to get away from the HELL!Without any condition,they just want to "GO!"

Dear Readers
I have just received some news from a pastor cum friend of mine in Jakarta,
Indonesia. He was saying that there will be another round of revolution in the
days to come. He does not know when but he said soon.

Apparently, all the homes of the Chinese were either marked with either blue
paint or red paint. According to the locals, the blue marking means
that the looters will rob the house. Red means the looters will rob and then
burn it down.

My friend's family has just come back to Singapore because their home was
marked RED. They were saying that this time the army MAY be involved in
the revolution because the General is not on terms with Habibie.

I sincerely hope that all who read this will spend some time praying for this
country and the Christians who are staying there.

That Christ's blood will cover all those who calls upon Him.

If you have read this, please disseminate to everyone you know.As a lot of
such news are controlled in the country, I hope that they will
come to the attention of the Americans and Human Rights organisations.

Regards Juliet

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:43 - ID#7568)

The dealers have the big funds in their sights and its only a matter of time before they are successful in forcing a cover. When they do its going to spike the market somewhere, and will probably put in a temporary top. With the biggest fund short somewhere around 60 million ounces, we are probably looking at around 50 cents worth of price movement to get the job done.

The longer they wait the higher we are going. Best guess is that covering begins around the 575 level and takes us to 625. From there it is anyone's guess. If the funds which are short flip around to the long side then $7.00 is within reach.

The rest of the world environment will also play a part. If the Yen continues weak then is will be hard to get any good press going about a general reflation. If for some reason, like the right guy gets elected PM, the Yen strengthens while the shorts are covering, then you may entice some people into the game on the idea that reflation is at hand.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:44 - ID#368244)
Gold and Silver

Gold down .60
Silver up .175 to 570.5

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:44 - ID#289357)
jims @ silver stocks - research reports


You can get a great package of 4 or 5 research reports on PAASF and most of the other silver stocks ( and the silver supply-demand fundamentals situation ) by requesting it thru the Pan American's website. Mine arrived in about 3 days.

This material is NOT produced by Pan American, but by a number of different industry analysts and securities firms. Very good information.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:51 - ID#206358)
BART...SORRY!For posting below article!
Bart and friends,

Sorry for posting so many sad stories from here!If you disagreed ,please delete from the "KITCO"!

And,so far as i concerned!In my deepest heart and feeling,the metal
which called "GOLD..GOLD.."is the most reliable,valueable and precious thing to hold in this time.Asked around,CAMBODIA,MYANMAR,INDONESIA,VIETNAM....ect.The currencies looked weaker and weaker,the politic unstable around..what else can we depend on....!!!GOD blessed all the people in south east asia..and to the papua new guinea too..!


(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:53 - ID#255226)
Jims - Still in stop 5.76

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:54 - ID#251166)
My prayers, and the prayers of my friends, are with you.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:56 - ID#411440)
@ jims: Forgive me if I'm mistaken but are not a huge portion
of PAASF silver reserves in Russia? And you forgot to add First Silver
Reserve ( v.FSR ) to your list. They have 2.7 million oz production
at a cost of 2.60 per 0z, no debt, and at last count 60 million oz reserves with much potential. Five dollar silver is ludicrous.
When I was in highschool 35 years ago, silver was $5 per oz, and
that was when a dollar bought 5 chocolate bars. If you discount
the inflation, silver would have to go UP to $25 to gain back what it
was worth 35 years ago. People who short such an oversold commodity
are a lot braver than I!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 08:59 - ID#57232)
Our hearts go out to you!
Jin: I sent your post of two days ago to Matt Drudge. He will know what to do with it. Your post of this morning is especially disturbing with the red and blue marks of the houses. Fascism/racism in one of the largest countries of the world. Very sad. Also Islam against Catholicism.
I think only the news media all over the world can lessen the insanity of what is happening. Looks like the authorities in Indonesia will look the other way, and no other country will dare interfere.
Please stay out of sight if you can -- I fear the worst is not over. Our time in the US will come -- but hard to say when our fiat currency will falter. Droughts and heat very bad in Texas -- only the beginning of the summer.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:04 - ID#254112)
@JTF: Attitudes towards Saving
I'm referring back to our discussion from yesterday. I agree, it is very terrible, when the State consolidates finances on the expense of the diligently saving citicens, as it happens in Japan these days. That's very frustrating. I know such stories and even worse from my grandparents who had the pleasure to go through the period hyperinflation after WWI. Such events hurt the accumulated wealth of families over generations. But it didn't really destroy the attitude of wealth accumulation of the people. They kept to save right away again and became more aware of the uncertainties of fiat currencies. The DM period has healed a lot of hurts in Germany.
When I compare attitudes towards personal wealth building attitudes in Europe and America, I come over and over to the conclusion that there is something fundamentally wrong in America. What comes to my mind is also the way houses are built. In Europe - all over Europe, not only in Germany - houses are built out of brick or rock, for generations to come.
The quality of construction materials is very high. That's one way how Europeans accumulate wealth. Americans are building houses every year in impressive numbers, which is part of the booming economy, but these houses, and the material they are built of, wouldn't be considered "durable goods" in Europe. Nevertheless, prices are kind of compareable.
There is also another difference in the way housing is financed in Europe: 40% downpayment is normal, 25% is considered reckless, 50% and more out of pocket is quite usual.
Above all of that, there is no hostility at all in Europe towards gold. The opposite is true. Gold is in high esteem as a wealth building vehicle. I don't know what to think about the Japanese in their attitude towards gold. But I hope they correct their addiction towards the dollar.

In my own observation, the overwhelming advantage of America is the entrepreneurial spirit in the high tech arena, which is alive in this country. O.k., it's also an area of overspeculation. But that's just the financial side of this coin. The attitude towards technological pioneering is the true wealth of America. I'm afraid the financial development will hurt this constructive part of the American economy very serverely in the near future.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:06 - ID#185448)
All our prayers and hopes to you and the people in SEA. May no blood be shed. Keep out ouf the fireline!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:06 - ID#373284)
ahem....mi.mi.mi.miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii...ah...thats better....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:08 - ID#35571)
I'm saving gold until after this silver thing has played out. Shouldn't take long. All over but the shouting by next week.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:09 - ID#289357)
rhody @ PAASF @ Russian reserves

Over 300 MM oz of silver reserves are contained in the Dukat Mine ( in Russia ) , but production will not be achieved until about 2001 from this facility. Thus the market is presently HEAVILY DISCOUNTING the importance of these reserves in valuation models for the company.

In addition ( according to a Salman Partners report dated March 11 ) the company is purchasing political risk insurance for the Russian venture.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:16 - ID#35571)
I really don't think you would like $56,000 gold. Remember to be carefull about what you wish for, you might get it!

If you had $56,000 gold, you would also have $600 loaf of bread, $15,000 barrel of oil, $4,000,000 new automobile, etc.

When you rub the magic lamp, be prepared to read the small print.

The big print giveth, and the small print taketh away.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:22 - ID#35571)
silver situation report

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:23 - ID#251166)
re. POG, cf. recents thoughts of Aragorn III, ANOTHER, SDRer
If organizations can merge billions of British pounds, Swiss francs, deutsche marks, French francs, Italian lire, and other European currencies into a single unit, why not return to gold and silver monetary standards? Presently, the answer remains, "limited supplies." If the value of all the world's currencies was divided into the global gold inventory, an ounce of gold would have a book value exceeding $200,000 per ounce. If economists created parity only with U.S. dollars, gold would still have a value in excess of $50,000 per ounce.... *Symbolic* parity is not beyond reality. It may be possible to link silver and gold to a single Global Currency Unit ( GCU ) . There is nothing that says accounting cannot be done on a fractional basis to accommodate a GCU. Investors might trade in 1/200,000th of an ounce.
-- from *The New Precious Metals Market,* by Philip Gotthelf, McGraw-Hill 1998

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:24 - ID#57232)
American vs European Values
Alberich: I agree with you that Europeans in general are more value/long term oriented than Americans. The US is a curious mix of tax, borrow and spend, boom and bust. Has been for a long time. I remember stories about the Massive beach front real estate booms along Florida and other parts of the East coast. Can't remember precise dates, but the contrast between boom and bust were staggering. I think one of the biggest was in the late 20's or so.
The strength of the economy in the US is in our semiconductor/computer/software industry -- and our aggressive use of computers to reduce costs. Here we excell. It is hard to predict when our debt/credit orientation, and our boom/bust mentality will couse our current bubble to burst, given the strength of some of our industries. My guess is that it is stronger than it looks, but the collapse may occur suddenly when it finally comes -- probably no sooner than y2k.
Appreciate your posts -- what we are discussing is extremely important to investing in our favorite topic.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:24 - ID#242325)
John Disney: Thanks much for your thoughts and calculations re: the SA golds! Agree they are much more attractive than the North Amercican golds at this point in time.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:27 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' I would not count on the media to stop the madness. Media, in
almost every instance has made things worse. In the USA, look at what they have let jack's ass in OUR White House get away with. I consider the Coward Erect to be one of the most dangerous men in the world that has put each and every American at risk with guns and missles pointed at my family and friends...He is equally to blame for putting people in other countries at the very same risk...

And our beloved, free, squat, nada, nothing...the media for the most part is nothing more than a strand woven into the noose they are trying to put around our necks...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:39 - ID#373284)
Why jack's ass in OUR White House and the IMF are a direct threat to your lives...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:53 - ID#255151)

You are correct about all that $56,000 Gold implies. As it turns out, I'm not greedy and my needs are small. Would be quite content with a measly $3,000/oz.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:53 - ID#24135)
Numbers .. numbers .. numbers
To Old Gold
The Rand is a bit stronger at 6.28 and the jse-gold
have come off 31.
This amazes me .. Those numbers are not that hard
for any idiot to make .. this index should be boiling..
but it languishes ..

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:53 - ID#434108)
GM chart identifies head-&-shoulder top//bear market in the making ....

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:56 - ID#24135)
I love Bankers
what happened to the IMF sale of
GOLD !!! .. When was the last time
it was mentioned ??
Those sweetie pies at the IMF were
gonna sell the gold and give the money
to de po folks ..
Instead they seem to have kept the
gold and created mo po folks ..

(Wed Jul 22 1998 09:58 - ID#269207)
@ Puuleasssssssssse
$3,000.00 @oz. I could easily pan $300.00 a day about anywhere even on Mars....BEEM ME UP....PUULLLEEEEEEAAAAAASSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEE

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:07 - ID#147201)
Grizz re your 7/21 @ 18:32 "coin"
EJ, Squirrel, T1, aurator etc. The big hold up right now is waiting on a sample. I have put out enquiries to several for one, but no replies yet. Any one interested in the how and why I' open to comments. Keep you posted, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:07 - ID#373284)
The IMF, all who support it, and all who work there are diseased rats...
GET CAMDESUSS!!! Insidious Malevolent Frauds

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:09 - ID#212323)
The link to $56,000/oz for the morning crowd that may be pondering all the wild talk

Date: Tue Jul 21 1998 20:19
Aragorn III ( ( THOUGHTS! ) by ANOTHER...I certainly DO like the way the
numbers play out ) ID#212323:
Gold is effectively revalued to $1,800 per gram, or equivalently $56,000
per troy ounce...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:10 - ID#350179)
JIN can you verify?
Indonesian police reportedly allowed to shoot looters

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:17 - ID#289357)
chas @ 10:07

Here's a possibility, if you haven't already contacted them....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:18 - ID#57232)
Look at World Net Daily today
tolerant1: Please promise me you will not get too upset about this -- we don't want you to blow a gasket. There is another extensive report regarding Flight 800, written by a seasoned investigator who was apparently the only individual who was allowed to interview the 100 or so eyewitnesses, one of them an FBI agent. The NTSB was prevented from doing so, as the 'higherups' decided what was to be told the public long before the investigation began.
I have not read the 100+ page PDF report, just summaries. What is significant is the trajectory of flight 800, which cannot be explained by a spontaneous fuel tank explosion, and the fact that an FBI agent saw at least one missle. At least dozens also saw a missle. We already know about other military eyewitnesses. The author claims that a highspeed boat moving at 30 knots ( avoiding radar contact with all other local craft ) was picked up on land-based radar at the right moment to have been involved. Two antiaircraft airburst type missles were apparently launched, one close enough to flight 800 to have the desired effect.
I don't consider this a conspiracy, just a rather unfortunate political decision made before the national election that will continue to fester. Shades of Oklahoma City, where a 'sting operation' apparently went awry due to ineptitide. But, it seems that alot of people are now getting fed up with the way news now is reported only if it is 'politically correct', whatever that means at the time. We are shifting to a time when the public will demand the truth -- not coverups of ineptitude or incidents that are suppressed for political reasons. If a missle was not involved with flight 800, why did Al Gore suddenly decide to discuss how to prevent missle attacks on commercial aircraft within weeks of Flight 800?
Please take a deep breath, and look at this when you get the time. I consider this good news, painful that it is. The truth is slowly leaking out on the net.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:26 - ID#434108)
Chinese/Russian Missile Threat to USA

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:26 - ID#212323)
Gollum...your 9:16
I think it is quite possible that when orchestrated as I've crudely presented, an official monetization of gold does not necessarily lead to a pricing chaos as you've suggested...$400 for a gallon of milk, $200 for a dozen eggs, etc.
The only arena in which the dollar plunges in purchasing power is with gold. The institutional assignment of the gold value could for all practical purposes be transparent to the average citizen and shopkeeper. Only those relatively few individuals who possess physical gold would see the world through altered eyes...rejoicing in their forethought to own gold while the rest of the world was enamoured of paper.

It would be expected that nations would quickly establish restrictive mineral rights laws that would heavily tax or otherwise control the future mining of gold to the Govt's best interest. Mining operations could very well relieve citizens of their individual tax obligations. And no nation could continue with the practice of creating money value from thin air.

got perspective?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:43 - ID#255151)
Aragorn III, Gollum, Gandalf

Seems like Middle Earth around here sometimes, complete with market wizards, wise elves, and all sorts of nasty goblins about. We even have a dwarf here, albeit from another Ring. Always liked old Tom Bombadil. His wife was named Goldberry, which is what I'm doing with my Gold.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:50 - ID#350179)
Say it ain't so...;)
Some Analysts Detect Slowdown in U.S. Economy

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:54 - ID#287129)
When and where do you see silver topping out in its current run, and why?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 10:56 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:00 - ID#350179)
Gold is referenced (abstractly)
Cloth-doll collectors' riches may turn to rags
The paper showed a graph of market value for the last two ( ? ) years of
"Peanut the Elephant", 1 share MSFT and 1 oz gold...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:00 - ID#289357)
Aragorn III @ $56k gold... Hmmmmmmmmm

I can see it now....future headlines...

"Gold from state capital dome removed to liquidate all state debt"

"Jewlery stores close all over the country.....'We've sold all our gold jewlery as scrap and we're moving to Palm Springs - nobody can afford jewelry now anyway, and they're afraid to wear it' "

"New businesses in gold scrap recycling supplant the internet in growth stock gains"

"Thug extracts gold teeth from robbery victim"

"PC's discontinued.....the gold in the circuit boards now costs more than the market price of the units"

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:01 - ID#289357)
ANOTHER great search engine

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:01 - ID#431263)
DOWN! DOWN! DOWN! CRB BREAKING DOWN TO 1992-93 levels, before the last run-up in gold!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:04 - ID#35571)
AG speaking...



Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:05 - ID#212323) does feel comforting to walk in the midst of these familiar individuals...
I have even spotted Shadowfax on rare occassions.

I liked your comment that you always felt $30,000/oz was too conservative. Trouble is, people have a difficult time thinking outside the box.

Speaking of your "Goldberry" activity, when you bring it back up you will have what I am:

All that is gold does not glitter...

got soapy sponges?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:06 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' I am very well aware of the varied and plausible stories that are
circulating and have been consuming information since the day the catastrophic event occurred. I am very close to several individuals at TWA.

RE: The gasket waters run very deep...I will not insult your intelligence by saying that what my eyes have seen leaves me calm...let us leave it at that...

To the folks that lost their lives, and to their families...a gulp of Patron to the remorse in my heart and soul for themand now another gulp to the truth blending with the eternal light of justice

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:06 - ID#57232)
USA Journal -- Russian ICBM's
goldfevr: I wonder if the IMF is aware that Russia is building more ICBM's to be aimed at us. If they can do this they are not broke. I do not know if Russia has an effective anti-missle defense system, but regardless it seems that the nuclear threat worldwide is building up again. We are clearly moving ( fitfully ) to getting a US based missle defense system -- which I unfortunately must agree we will need fairly soon -- especially considering the current quality of our diplomatic efforts. Now -- whether it will work effectively, or be deployed to defend the American people, that is another matter. Using the streetlight analogy, I doubt much will really happen until we have a nuclear incident -- some years in the future.
Don't forget that radioactive gold does no one any good. Our best defense is prevention of war with effective diplomacy, strong leadership, and a strong highly disciplined military. The American public ( and the people of rest of the world ) , always gets what they ask for. We need to be more outspoken with our respective governments before someone does something all ( with any sense ) will regret. We all live on the same small blue planet, breathe the same air, drink the same water, and eat the same food -- nothing coming from the moon or mars quite yet.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:08 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re Pobjoy
Thanx a bunch. I knew there were some of these, but never heard of this one. I will check, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:08 - ID#431263)
AG flagging DEFLATION! DEFLATION! DEFLATION! Even watches the oil rig count and the number of oil tankers at sea holding oil for future delivery! FRANK BARNEY now makin' a damn fool of himself on live TV over minumum wage increase as the reason for labor shortage! What a bunch of bullscheiss!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:09 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
All, Everyone, Anyone, Someone: Can one of the distinguished individuals at left tell me how to identify the url of a single posting? Don't remember this trick from the old days of Kitco, but I've seen it several times since I returned. For instance, Aragorn's 10:09 points to blah/blah/980721.201940.aragorn_i.htm. I understand everything in this url up to what appears to be the exact time at which the posting was made: 40 seconds after 20:19. How do you determine that the post was made at 20:19:40 so precisely, when seconds don't appear in the actual post? Also, how is the 'aragorn_i' determined ( my first guess in trying to duplicate this trick was 'aragorn_iii' ) . In other urls of this kind, I believe I've seen numerals at the end. How does that work? Thanks.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:09 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron...and lest we forget the best headline of all...
"Inflation is DEAD. Wages earned today hold value into retirement."

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:14 - ID#369352)
Goldfevr - Always like the links to articles you have been giving us!
Thank you for all of the net links on the articles...I really appreciate them, as I have little time to search for them...your selection is excellent.

Thanks Again.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:14 - ID#35571)
I think it has to get through 5.72 or so before Thursday afternoon if it's going to do much more than it already has.

I think there is a semi short squeeze coupled with options running out that is behind the current move. Friday also brings the Japanese elections and the result of that will be negative enough for gold that it will be even harder for silver to move against the current like it's been doing.

If silver breaks thru, however, it's rise will be fueled bu fear and greed, very powerful forces indeed, and it could go well above 6.5 easily.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:15 - ID#431263)
Frank Barney is blowing smoke out his @SS! How did this guy ever get on the House Banking Committee? No wonder Ag has to come to the hill as often as he does!

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:15 - ID#212323)
Rather than trying to figure the system out, simply load the page you would like to reverence while in "Short Text" mode. Then use the clip and paste routine with the URL that appears in the browser address window.

...or did I misunderstand your intent?

got tomatoes?

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:16 - ID#212323)
Um, make that "reFerence", please...
and all other typo's

got white-out?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:16 - ID#57232)
No offense intended
tolerant1: I value your posts -- sometimes they get spirited, so I worry about the person behind them. If the emotion comes out only in the posts, and does not stay behind in the body that is ours to use while we are on this earth, then I will not worry. As my Chinese friends would say -- I wish you long life.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:16 - ID#251166)
re. Yen
Forex: Dollar Up Vs Yen As Obuchi
Leads PM Race
TOKYO ( Dow Jones ) -The dollar rose against the yen in Asian
trading Wednesday on growing signs that Japanese Foreign
Minister Keizo Obuchi, who is widely considered an ineffectual
leader, will likely become Japan's next prime minister.

The U.S. currency strengthened about half a yen to an intraday
high of 140.75 yen, propelled higher by reports that Obuchi is
comfortably leading the race to become president of the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party, and therefore prime minister.

The news disappointed traders with large yen positions, who
had been betting that veteran politician Seiroku Kajiyama might
pull ahead in the race, dealers said. Kajiyama has been active in
promoting efforts to clean up the debt-ridden banking system
and, as a result, his ascent to prime minister likely would be good
for the yen.

"Nobody's looking at an Obuchi win as a yen-positive factor,"
said Kazuo Takayama, chief foreign exchange manager at
Midland Bank in Tokyo. "Therefore yen selling is likely to
continue," he added, forecasting that the dollar could rise as high
as 142.00 yen if Obuchi wins.

The dollar was also supported against the yen by U.S. Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks late Tuesday
suggesting the Fed retains its tightening bias for U.S. interest
rates, regardless of the adverse effects such a move might have
on Asia's stricken financial markets, dealers said.

However, demand by Japanese exporters and overseas funds to
sell dollars for yen made 141.00 yen a strong ceiling of resistance
for the U.S. currency in Wednesday's session, dealers said. That
resistance will likely hold for the remainder of the session, they

Around 0530 GMT ( 1:30 a.m. EST ) , the dollar is quoted at 140.65
yen, above 140.35 yen late Tuesday in New York and up from
140.38 yen late Tuesday in London.

The U.S. currency also is at DEM1.7851, lower than DEM1.7870
late Tuesday in New York and below DEM1.7899 in London

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:17 - ID#431263)
Ron Paul about to cast a pall over the proceedings! What a difference between Ron Paul and Barney Frank!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:17 - ID#373284)
Ron, Namaste' if you want to get real specific this may help you...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:18 - ID#284255)
Try again
Interview starts about 1:05 hours into the show.
There are lots of adds etc in between.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:21 - ID#431263)
Gold standard robs the CB of its felxibility to print money and prevent recessions/inflations! Heh! Heh! Gettin' interesting, nicht wahr?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:23 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' and a gulp of Patron to you my friend...
No offense taken what so ever...if the tone of my post implied that in any way such was not my, not at all...another gulp to attaining a more certain clarity in my posts hence forth...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:26 - ID#431263)
GOTT IM HIMMEL! AG mentioned the SELL word for equities! And the word DEBT and DANGER all in the same breath! DOW VERDICT DOWN 90! Kennedy gettin' a lesson in reality!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:27 - ID#26467)
commodity potpourri
FWIW Beans are spiking to the low side hitting the buy zone Friday
or next week Monday.Coffee might make one more test in the 1.05
area next week.Silver top of its trading range 5 to 5.8.
Biggest value in Canadian Silver coins at huge discount,been buying
at 4 times.
Gold bottom July 30 if 287 holds ,price projection 335 340 November 10.
Platinum will hit 500 in the same time frame.
Dollar index tied in the trading zone 100 102.
Canadian dollar will drop to 66.1 in US dollar terms at the end of the
month.Central bank will start raising interest rates, killing the banking sector.The Feds will raise theirs in August.
Have a great day.I like Greenspin

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:27 - ID#369352)
JTF - Yesterday's Post on the Euro
Yesterday, you had asked why I would select the Euro over the US$ considering that Europe was also loaded with debt, including the East German consolidation debt for Germany. IMHO, if you look at the source of the debts of Europe vs US, you will recognize patterns of how debt is accumulated and whether it is getting better or will also notice which ones still have assets in their central bank. As I would look at this picture, Europe is in a consolidation of debt, with a plan to eliminate said debt, thus not extending the debt. In the US, we have four major sources of debt that is spiraling out of control. 1 ) US Gov't debt, 2 ) US Personal debt, 3 ) Corporate Debt ( via Mergers/Takeovers ) , 4 ) State/Local Gov't...none of these have let up in the last 15 years...It is also, now estimated that the actual US gov't debt ( on budget/off budget + Trade deficits ) is in excess of $19 Trillion. And this debt will not be reduced thru a paydown...but only thru default.

Now, if I compare the US debt and asset backing, with regard to currency, against Europe's debt and asset backing, I can only favor the Euro...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:29 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
Heya! We're coming into the goblin hour. What's it gonna be?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:33 - ID#413195)
in sack-o-tomatoes
Aragorn III: Thank you, sir! You understood me perfectly. Gawd, that was easy ( don't tell Bart, but I never use the short form ) ! Yessiree, got tomatoes, gold, and platinum! I'm set. :- ) Thanks again.

Tolerant1: Namaste', sir. Thanks. BTW, what happened to Hong? I wasn't around much when he appeared here and missed all the controversy.

Golden Cheesehead: Barney Frank talks like he's got a mouthful . . . Did 'ya see AG shudder?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:34 - ID#431263)
Because of the unchanging character of human nature, such corrections will happen again and again and again! "World bank reserves disproportionately in US dollars!"--AG What will happen when dollar is displaced as a world reserve currency and CB's diversify away from the buck to the Euro? DOW NOW DOWN 96!

Indonesian inflation the direct result of rupiah collapse caused by over-leveraging in the US dollar.

Asian crisis not forecastable? C'mon AG you could have read all about it at Kitco way back last Fall!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:38 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:40 - ID#373284)
Ron, Namaste'...of this question you ask I know not what happened.
Golden Cheesehead, Namaste' I find it hilarious that it might be possible that AG DID read about it here last fall...stranger things have happened...the truth is stranger than fiction as it is said, eh...oh yeah...


A gulp of Patron to ya...

Cage Rattler
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:40 - ID#33184)
Greenspan says that he sees no alternative to the IMF's policies in Asia

Cage Rattler
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:41 - ID#33184)
The FTSE 100 closes 2.3% down, its biggest points drop in 3 months

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:44 - ID#431263)
Ftse down hard on rate hike fears! Will stimulate purchase of BP and selling of dollars!

Cage Rattler
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:46 - ID#33184)
Greenspan says that the probability of adverse Foreign Crisis effect on the U.S. is less than 50%.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:46 - ID#57232)
European debt
trader vic: Thanks. I would be interested in how they plan to pay off their debt. I regretfully am sceptical of how serious they really are -- we have talk about reducing debt in the US at times, but no one does anything about it. Fiat currencies and debt are handled the same pretty much the world over. How can they cut entitlements without being voted out of office?
Since the European money policy has been tight during the EURO launch over the last several years, and they are still in recession, do you expect that they will loosen the money supply controls a bit?
Looks like AG is not going to lower rates as the market expected. I hope he does not raise rates, but it would make sense in a backhanded way if it brought the market bubble down, which might very well bring down the US dollar. Sure gets complicated when so much of the US is owned by foreign investors.
If we have more rolling currency collapses, such as Japan not getting a strong leader ( but the one lost likely to get the job ) , the US will look good, even if local US investors are worried about rising short term rates. I'm glad I do not have AG's job. My job is tough enough.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:47 - ID#35571)
Last few London shorts covering. Silver up a little. Just a few minutes left till London market close. Goblin is getting up his nerve. I hope he gets creamed but I am afraid we'll see a drop in the next ten minutes or so.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:48 - ID#431263)
BOTH INFLATION AND DEFLATION are inconsistent with price stability. Fed will fight BOTH!! Both inflation and deflation are a potential threat to US!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:50 - ID#147201)
Gollum re your 9:16
This is precisely why a small gold coin is necessary. At the time you referred to, using gold to purchase anything avoids the ever declining purchasing power of the currency. What I propose is a 10 grain 9999 gold coin because if all you have is 1/10 oz or higher, there's a lot of filing or cutting and weighing. It would be better to add up the coins instead of cutting them. 10 grains is about as small as is practical to mint. The smallest I can find in history was a circulating 25 cent piece in Calif. about 1850 to 1860+. At that time gold was between $16 and $18/oz. That would make the 25 cent coin about 5 to 6 grains. Can you see the point I'm making? Would appreciate comments and questions, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:50 - ID#287186)
re Generators and other high profile operations
Noisy generators, wood smoke, and empty tin cans in the back yard draw predators. Generators get "borrowed" by the local government for a gas station or the mayor's house. Everybody hides behind darkened, shuttered windows. Knocks on doors are unanswered when you know darn well somebody is in there. Or the door opens and a blued steel barrel pokes out under suspicious eyes while the women and kids huddle in a closet.
Somebody tries to buy groceries with a Gold or Silver and they get "The Look". They don't make it out of the parking lot with their gold and there is a reception party when they get home.
You learn real fast to keep a low profile. No noise, lights, or scents on the wind. Small well-worn bills don't trigger any odd looks.
We can hope everybody cooperates. Neighbors come over and slap you on the back while complimenting you on your foresight. The neighborhood gets together to have a party. Brownies are a great way to lift the spirits. Somebody donates flour, another donates sugar, yet another comes up with a can of cocoa, somebody else contributes canned milk and various others toss in shortening, vanilla extract, crushed nuts, etc.
You lend your generator around to pump out people's basements. They lend you their push mower. Sounds like idyllic rural America - maybe even some suburban gated communities {if they didn't have gates before, they do now}
Cities on the other hand...

Cage Rattler
(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:54 - ID#33184)
Politicians Warn of Chechen Civil War
MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) Leading Russian politicians said on Tuesday that mounting tensions in Chechnya could spark civil war in the breakaway republic that would surely spill into neighboring regions.

But a spokesman for Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov accused the Russian media of exaggerating Chechnya's problems.

Reserve general Aleksander Lebed, who negotiated Russia's peace with Chechen separatists in 1996 after a two-year war, told Interfax news agency that "civil war looms in Chechnya" due to a clash between Maskhadov and armed Islamic militants.

"Recognizing that he has been marginalized, ( Maskhadov ) has moved onto the political attack, reinforcing his military forces," said Lebed, now governor of the Krasnoyarsk region of Siberia and a likely future contender for Russia's presidency.

"By disarming various armed groups, he has struck a blow at their foreign backers. It is clear that certain forces will not stand for that," he said.

Chechen security forces fought a battle with Islamic paramilitaries last week that left nine dead. Maskhadov ordered the Islamic units to disband, called up reservists and extended a state of emergency by 10 days.

Itar-Tass news agency reported on Tuesday that roads leading out of the Chechen capital Grozny had been closed, but Mayerbek Vachagayev, Maskhadov's spokesman, called the reports "disinformation." A Reuters correspondent in Grozny said only the usual security checkpoints were in evidence.

The tensions in Chechnya have drawn wider attention in recent days in Moscow, where news reports have repeatedly warned of a real threat to Maskhadov's control. Maskhadov, a former Soviet artillery colonel, is seen as a relative moderate.

"If Chechnya is engulfed in the flames of civil war, the conflict will not be confined to within the borders of the republic," said Ivan Rybkin, Russian co-chairman of the ongoing peace talks with Grozny.

Chechnya's prosecutor-general, Khavash Sibiriev, said armed Islamist fighters from the disbanded units had gathered illegally on Monday in the village of Stary Atagi to show support for former President Zelimkhan Yandarbiev who has been critical of Maskhadov.

Village residents confirmed that 30 to 40 armed men had held a meeting there on Monday. But Vachagayev said Yandarbiev had not been involved in any anti-government protests.

Chechen authorities say the Islamist units follow the conservative Wahhabi tradition of Sunni Islam and are supported from outside the republic.

Wahhabism is found throughout the Middle East and is the main Islamic tradition in Saudi Arabia.

Chechen authorities expelled three Jordanian citizens over the weekend. There is a substantial Chechen diaspora in Jordan.

Lebed criticized the Russian government for failing to respond to the threat of further violence in Chechnya.

"Some people think, let the Chechens fight among themselves and everything will be fine. Well, it won't be fine. Everybody will end up fighting," he said.

"There is no precise policy toward this region. Nobody has been required to work out a strategic line for federal forces in the North Caucasus," he said.

Moscow still regards Chechnya as a part of the Russian Federation, but has wielded little influence in the republic since Russian troops were driven out after the 1994-96 war.

Chechnya has remained troubled, with gangs of armed bandits seizing hostages for ransom, including Russia's chief representative to the region and several Western relief workers.

Conservative Islam has been on the rise in southern Russia's North Caucasus region since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Chechen leadership, largely secular up to and during the war with Russia, has since instituted strict Islamic law. ( ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:55 - ID#373284)
Heil Clintler...NOT...jack's ass in OUR White House is pathetic and so are the people
that work with and for him...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 11:59 - ID#431263)
Because of the complexity of the US and World economy! Surprises, surprises everywhere! By the time he fends off inflationary forces he's confronted by deflationary forces. The oscillations of the cycles are becoming more pronounced and more frequent. Their extremes are less readily counteractable! One day the system will break into the black hole of hyper-deflation or the unsustainable madness of hyper-inflation! Both will destroy our currency, our economy, and our sense of value! We must be prepared for both! Down DOWN 111!

Monkee Person
(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:00 - ID#288105)
Wipin' away some capitalisation today, boys.
The higher it goes, the more critical these couple-hundred Dow, or few dozen NDX points, means. A fund manager can really lay waste to alot of 401's, pensions, savings, etc. at these heady levels. Yet, I see very little mentioned from that perspective.

All I ever see is, "Hey, that's only a 3% drop." Yeah, right. Now tell me how much money that is.


Notice, too, how everyone is bein' real quiet about South America. Not much damage assessment on East Asian exposure. Believe you, me. They're feelin' it alright. And U.S. money center banks are up to their eyeballs again in S.A.

Taking silver in the physical...couple bags of .9 SD's. Gold? Alta & Delta. Not too heavy, though. Gotta' watch that forex...Yen:Dollar, DM:Dollar.

Hang in there, guys!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:01 - ID#266105)
World Gold Council on IMF gold reserves

Wednesday July 22, 7:01 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Gold To Remain In IMF Reserves

IMF Unlikely To Sell Significant Amount

The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the world's second largest holder of gold reserves, is highly
unlikely to sell a significant amount of its gold in the immediate future, it is claimed in a report published

In a wide-ranging study entitled the ``IMF and Gold,'' Dick Ware, of the Center for Public Policy Studies
of the World Gold Council, says that although gold no longer has an official role within the international
monetary system, it continues to serve an important function in underpinning the IMF's financial strength.
Among other things the presence of gold on the IMF's balance sheet provides reassurance to countries
whose currencies are used in fund lending operations.

The IMF currently holds 3,217 tons of gold, worth $31 billion at a price of $300 an oz. This is about 10%
of the gold held in the official sector and around 2.5% of the total stock of gold worldwide. ``What the
IMF does with its gold is clearly of vital interest to anyone with a stake in the gold market -- miners,
trades, manufacturers and consumers,'' said Ware.

The fund is no longer permitted to buy gold and its options, therefore, are limited to selling some or all of
it or simply ``sitting on it.'' There have been suggestions that the IMF should sell its gold, but they have
failed, with limited exceptions, to gain the necessary support of the membership, since an 85% majority is
needed for any sale of the fund's gold.

``It has remained the majority view that it is better for the fund to preserve its gold against unknown
contingencies rather than sell it to invest the proceeds elsewhere,'' said Ware. ``International monetary
officials are often more comfortable if they have something tangible with which to confront any
unforeseen crisis. Gold provides such real support.''

``Certainly this moment, there is little prospect of the fund's membership, as reflected in the Board of
Executive Directors, agreeing to an outright sale of the majority of the fund's gold. There are enough
important members who hold gold in their national reserves - and see the good reasons for doing so - to
prevent this happening,'' said Ware.

The fund is still considering the possibility to sell a small amount of the fund's gold - up to five million
ounces - to help with the debt reduction plan for the world's poorest countries; and another proposal to
sell up to three million ounces of gold to cover late or defaulting loan repayments to the fund's Enhanced
Structural Adjustment Facility ( ESAF ) .

These potential sales have been agreed to in theory by the membership, but it is by no means certain that
they will happen in practice.

Fund members would undoubtedly be concerned at the prospect of similar operations continuing, with the
ultimate possibility of the fund being left with no gold at all. There are significant reasons why gold
remains important to the fund. Piecemeal initiatives which continually eat into the stock will undermine its
fundamental raison d'etre.

Ware added that it was important to be clear about the positive reasons for the fund continuing to
maintain its existing stock of gold.

``An underlying factor to bear in mind - one which has a direct bearing on any fund member which holds
gold in its national reserves - is that fund sales could affect the value of others' outstanding holdings. But it
goes beyond that, since the price of gold - influenced by any significant market operations - will affect the
viability of the gold mining industry in those countries which mine it,'' Ware said.

``Although the major producers are mainly developed countries, there are a number of countries with
small producers by world standards, which are nevertheless important in terms of the country's income
and employment. Any actions taken by the fund which might be detrimental to the gold price could
therefore have an impact on the economies of a number of its members. Highly unlikely though it may be,
at the extreme a fall in the gold price could be the last straw which forced a country to approach the fund
for resources,'' Ware added.

Gold is held by the fund at the old official price of SDR35 to the ounce ( $42.22 ) and is therefore a
significantly undervalued asset on the fund's balance sheet, and consequently the fund's financial position
is stronger than it appears. Gold adds a ``fundamental strength'' to the balance sheet which may be
important in years to come.

``As has been seen frequently in recent years, the nature and extent of financial shocks are unknowable.
Although they have tended to equate to problems in individual ( large ) countries, it is not beyond the
bounds of possibility that in future they might involve the whole system. In such an instance, the fact that
the fund owns gold could become an important factor in the equation.''

``Difficult though it may be to forsee at the moment, who knows what a future international exchange rate
system might comprise?'' Ware asked.


The IMF and Gold - Research Study no. 20, is one of a series of reports published by the World Gold
Council on a number of wide-ranging issues of importance to the international gold market and all those
involved in it. Copies of this report and of a full list of other reports are available from the WGC, 444
Madison Ave., Ste. 301, New York, NY 10022. Telephone 212/317-3848.

The World Gold Council is an international organization formed and funded by leading gold mining
companies from around the world to increase the demand for gold. The countries served by the Council
account for approximately 80% of global gold demand.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:02 - ID#431263)
The risks and consequences of failing to fund the IMF are measurable and compelling! Despite its faults, it's the only game in town!--AG

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:07 - ID#37292)
@ Chas and others re 10g coin
Your point is well taken about small denoms; however, how many people know, although I am sure that you do, that there are 480 grains in a troy ounce, and a 10g coin means that you get 48 of them to the ounce -- pretty small when considering a k-rand ( and others ) is an ounce. Imagine dividing one of those babies into 48 pieces.

Re your comment about Calif gold, yes they had them, used them, and yes they are small -- used for a different reason then we might want to now. But, speaking now as a long time coin collector as well as a gold person, the biggest problem with them besides counterfeiting was their size and avoiding losing them in one's pocket. Even the US $1 coins of the mid 1850's, literally twice the size and weight of California gold, got lost by the bucketfuls. This is the reason both of these issues are scarce and worth some serious money in Unc conditions...

Would you consider trying an experiment today? Ask any 15 people you come across in your daily routine at random: How may grains are there in a troy ounce? Then ask how many grams are there in that same ounce? If you get one correct response to either question, I will owe you a nice Bombay Velvet and tonic someday. Point is, the US is mired in it's non-metric thinking mode and the public just ain't gonna buy it when it comes to thinking too much about the value of their pocket change.

Mountain Goat
(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:09 - ID#349183)
ANOTHER link to follow. Markets almost all in the red.


MG ( Yes, market watch this gold we new together, no? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:16 - ID#266105)
@Mountain Goat

Jes', we gnu dolg swatch dis flarket getter. : )

Outta here.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:19 - ID#35571)
Hey! Holding steady. This is good.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:20 - ID#431263)
Keep the surplus we have now! Doing a lot of good for the economy!--AG

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:36 - ID#373284)
and a moment of silence for
Alan Shepard...who left us today...he will be missed...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:43 - ID#410198)
GOLD = Idiot case for buying physical gold....for the first time in history we have
a date certain Jan 1 2000 .......17 months from one has a handle on what is going to happen at best its 50/50......lets look at gold as insurance a roll ( 50 ) 1/10 oz US golden eagles runs according to MTB this morning $38.85 a piece therefore a roll is 50 x $38.85 = $1942.50...lets say nothing happens between now and then and on Jan 2 2000 spot gold is $250.00 per oz and you sell your roll for $1250.00....the loss is $692.00 however you have had idiot insurance ( the idiots here are the folks on Wall St.and in Washington ) for 17 months......I currently pay $1200.00 per year for auto insurance...again I am protecting myself against some idiot trashing my SUV at the end of 12 months I get nothing back.....unlike my car insurance my gold insurance could save my butt,rise in price or do nothing ......... I say it's the cheapest insurance you can buy because no one can predict the future.......just my thoughts

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:48 - ID#373284)
robnoel, Namaste' I agree with your thinking 100%
I am one of those idiots and I have purchased a large policy and will add to it...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:51 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
Mr. N. York's signaling for the check, toothpick hanging out from between his lips. Lays the corporate Amex on the tray, waitress runs it through. Mr. York stands -- silver on his brain -- and begins his brisk pace back to the office....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 12:58 - ID#35571)
Mr. NY seems to be out for bear. Goblin in retreat.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:03 - ID#255151)

Here is an interesting thread about White House monitoring systems. Real cloak and dagger stuff.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:05 - ID#147201)
Texasgoldpost re 10 grain coin
Your 12:07 reply is a very cogent post. The fundamental purpose is to establish apiece that is pertinent to a situation where the paper $ is grinding to 0 and gold is becoming recognized as a medium of exchange with value "beyond the foreseeable future". IE- gold is rising in recognition and the paper $ is falling. I know about your experiment re grains and grams. The only people who know are prospectors and some coin dealers. Even some of them do not know the relation betwen grams and grains. The idea here is to get it started with a corp sponsor who has a corollary interest and then go to mass merch to educate the public. I am waiting on a sample to go to McDonalds, Hasbro, Cueva etc. I am wide open to questions and comments, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:09 - ID#434108)
Bear Market in U.S. stocks/markets/indices
On Channel 22-KWHY, Los Angeles,
Frank Barbera, technician, states:
"One by one, stocks are being taken out & shot."


Bear Market in the U.S. markets, is unfolding.
It has ominous implications, world-wide.

The trillions of
global, liquid/'hot' capital,
will now look for it's next
which will be outside of
the U.S investment markets: stocks, bonds, and U.S. dollar.

See stock charts, such as

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:14 - ID#289357)
chas @ tiny GOLD coins

It might not be a good idea to try to market such an item to anyone who sells stuff to small children like Mickey D's......the 'Toy Police' would have it banned in a heartbeat as something that could ( probably would ) be ingested.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:18 - ID#14431)
jonesy--your 9:23 today

I believe you quoted a section from a book, entitled "The New Precious Metals Market" by Philip Gotthelf, McGraw-Hill, 1998, in your post. Have you read this book? Is it worthwhile buying? I looked it up on, but there were no reviews. For that matter, do you know of a review?

I am interested in reading the book, but would like to know more about it before shelling our worthless fiat stuff to buy it. ( Fiat paper serves some purpose, at least for the time being, I guess. )

Thanks, Fergie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:21 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re swallow
You're right and this may kill McDonalds, but I have some who are out of sight to kids. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:28 - ID#57232)
Alan Shepard - I will miss him
tolerant1: He brings back memories of a better time when our space program was focused. Even back then I remember it took Sputnick to get us moving. Democracies do not have the focus of totalitarian governments, but at least you can change the bad policies without revolution. Never wish for a totalitarian government to get good policies, because sooner or later you will get bad ones.

All: I just sold 1/2 of my gold mutual funds for the following reasons:
1 ) AG will not lower rates
2 ) Possible riots in Indonesia tomorrow with the expected effect on SEAsia gold sales
3 ) The likely election of an ineffective Japanese premier.
4 ) Plummeting commodity prices
5 ) Sharefin's swing index is acting up again

Silver looks much better -- kept my PAASF. I also kept my predominantly South African gold mutual fund holdings. I sold some of my retail funds, but expect them to come back quicker than the gold stocks. This equity bull is not over, especially if Japan is heading south again. The Japanese will be buying American if they have any assets left.

After the current market twitch in the US -- along with a minor downturn in gold equities -- I will buy them back. I don't expect gold to start to rise until the commodity indices start to rise -- in 6 months or less.
I think the first official report about US crops will be in August sometime. Could be dramatic given how bad Texas looks this early in the year. But -- as I have learned from the traders on this site -- don't fight the market, and take your profits while you can. There is always an opportunity to jump back in -- and we really do not have any evidence of a gold rally yet -- plenty of opportunity to buy on the bottoms.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:44 - ID#57232)
Fight inflation and deflation
Golden Cheesehead: The sign of an unstable system is not knowing which way to push it back into equilibrium. We are very lucky that our Fed Chairman is much more competent that the rest of our current leaders. He at least does not put a crazy political spin on everything, even if he is generally obscure.
If AG succeeds in doing what I think he wants, he will scare Japan into fixing their problems ( we are theatening not to help if we do not lower rates ) , and he will scare the market down a bit. I think he realizes that he will eventually have to raise rates to do this, despite the apparent paradox. IF AG succeeds in maneuvering our massive economic ship, we will not have a market/economic collapse, but an orderly bear. If so, realestate and precious metals will be an excellent investment. If he fails, all equities markets -- including precious metals equities -- will vaporize. My guess is that D.A. is right, and for now at least we will have a return of inflation, driven by a dropping dollar. What may prevent this will be the 'flight to safety' bit if the rolling currency collapses continue, or a weaker EURO. Still a real possibility.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:45 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re Swallow
My original idea was to encase the coin in a plastic 2" x 2" holder with some details. I will have to rethink and check wit "toy police"

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:50 - ID#215235)
Pegasus Gold, Inc.
PGU is now worth $.15/share and dropping. Reorganization plan under Chapter 11 on schedule on or before July 31, 1998 and "common share holders are unlikely to receive any distribution in the reorganization." The little guys get beat up, while the banks exchange their debt for equity. White collar crime is rampant in American business. Another Golden Fleece!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:53 - ID#57232)
All: I think we will have a short term correction in the US, but the bull market will continue rallying until AG raises rates. AG wants the markets to go down, but 'not too much'. He probably is hoping events of some kind will do his dirty work for him, so that he will not get blamed for popping the market bubble. He has a very difficult task as the worlds 'fiat currency' monitor. If he does well, currency ( not market ) inflation will return to the US. If he does poorly, the US dollar and the US markets will implode. He certainly can't look to the White House or Congress for assistance in our 'hidden' debt problem.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 13:57 - ID#37292)
@ more thing.
First of all, I wish you good luck and prosperity with your idea. But I want to give you a quick economics exam. This is a hypothetical situation using your product, but you can get the idea from the wood problem below:

Gold spot is 358.70 I have seventeen 10 grain coins in my pocket. How much money do I have in dollars? I will give you 45 seconds to figure this without the use of a calculator, as you might find yourself standing in line at the local Walmart.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:02 - ID#43460)
ten grains?
Using Bart's table to calculate ten grains comes to 647.98 milligrams, about the weight of two aspirins. Not very big is it, but at least if a baby swallowed it the coin would come out untarnished on the other end, unlike our US copper coated zinc pennies which are quite poisonous if swallowed. IMHO


(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:04 - ID#251166)
@ Fergie, re. Gotthelf's book, *The New Precious Metals Market*
Yes, I read it. Got it from for $28. Was it worth it? Depends. Don't take this as a review.

For starters, the 1998 copyright date is misleading, and disappointing. The book is actually current only through about 1995, so all the big factors we're dealing with now -- really low POG, overbought equity markets, Asian crisis, the coming euro, and Y2K -- are not even mentioned. On the other hand, Gotthelf's a pretty good synthesist, especially regarding the monetary role of PMs. Too bad that stuff comprises only one chapter and a few allusions here and there. His chapter, "New Strategies for New Markets," re. futures and options and such, is okay for a total newbie, but otherwise information you could pick up on the web with a good search engine. There's pages and pages of charts we've all already seen. The second half of the book reads like Johnson-Matthey reports -- "Gold Fundamentals," "Silver Fundamentals," etc., reviewing industrial outlook and supply and demand issues for each metal. Once again, a good search engine can get you all that on the web, and more up-to-date. ( Look up Johnson-Matthey, Platinum Guild, etc. )

Hmmm, I guess this IS a review. Thumbs up or thumbs down? Not so cut and dry. For me, the $28 book was worth about $13.50. But, as my broker can verify, I've done a lot worse.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:11 - ID#43460)
It would be easier to make a 9.6 grain coin perhaps?
Ten grains is 1/48th of an ounce, but 9.6 grains would be 1/50th of an ounce or exactly half the size of a 1.25th ounce coin. Then you could add some copper+silver to make it 22k for toughness and come up with a bigger 10.473 ounce coin. Here we've not even coined them and I'm already wanting to debase them. ( For the cheeellldddrrreennnnn! ) ( 8-^ ) )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:11 - ID#434108)
Selling 1/2 of gold-funds; JTF @13:28
You may be "right",
there may not be and endless-bottoming opportunity
remaining, much longer.

The discouragement, pessimism, among gold investors/traders, is so thick you could cut it with a knife.

imho: The 'XAU' is beginning to work it's way,
up and away from...
the -70- level/range/area.... in the weeks just ahead.

The stock NEM, is a heavily weighted component of the XAU.
Because this stock has recently moved to new lows ( -bottom ) ,
vs it's lows of Dec/Jan., it helps 'disguise' the bull-market that is brewing, in precious metals, by keeping the XAU held-back/down,
at the current 70-level.

I believe there may be one last upside rally
- perhaps even a spike - up...
for the DJIA/stock-markets....
and as I've posted here before, I believe this 'final-hurrah' - rally for U.S. markets could carry the DJIA to/toward 10,000.

At the same time, imho:
gold will not sell-off anymore.....but instead,
will work its way higher.

Silver, Platinum, & Paladium markets have already bottomed,
for this cycle.

Gold, and mining shares, are about to follow suit.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:14 - ID#289357)
PAASF News release

July 21, 1998


Vancouver, British Columbia..Pan American Silver Corp.
( TSE: PAA; NASDAQ: PAASF ) has appointed James Wade as
Senior Vice-President, Russia and General Director of
Pan American's 70% owned Russian subsidiary ZAO Serebro
Dukat. He will have responsibility for all aspects of
development of the large Dukat silver mine in Magadan
State, far eastern Russia.

Mr. Wade is a well-known Canadian mining engineer who
has worked in the Canadian and international mining
industry for more than 30 years. He has worked in
senior positions on Russian and neighbouring projects
since 1990, including evaluation of a large producing
gold mine, restructuring and restarting a large uranium
mine, mill and processing operation, and managing the
start-up of a 1000 tpd underground and 2000 tpd open
pit uranium mine. Pan American Silver Corp.'s Chairman,
Mr. Ross Beaty, said, "Now that the bankable feasibility
study is nearly completed, we are ready to build our
operating team for Dukat. We are very pleased to
welcome Jim as head of the team and look forward to
benefiting from his wealth of experience in start-up and
management of large mining projects in the Russian region."

The Company expects to receive the first complete draft of
the Dukat bankable feasibility study on July 27th for
internal review and finalization. The study is being
performed by Kvaerner Metals and GOT Engineering and is
progressing on schedule and within budget.

The decision of the IMF to support Russia and the enactment
on July 16th by the Russian legislature of initial portions
of a new tax code are encouraging recent events. This code,
if enacted as presently proposed, will dramatically improve
the taxation structure for the Russian mining industry by
phasing out, over a five year period, three existing
royalties totaling 10.24% of gross revenues and by reducing
corporate taxes from 35% to 30 percent. These proposed
taxation reforms follow significant reforms earlier in 1998
to silver and gold export legislation, which now allow
precious metal exports via commercial banks and which may
allow, later this year, precious metal exports directly by

Pan American is a silver mining company with an inventory of
over 650 million ounces of silver in reserves and resources.
Silver production for 1998 is projected to be 3 million
ounces. The Company is well financed with working capital
of US$30 million, and no debt.

-End -

Ross J. Beaty, Chairman or Rosie Moore, VP Corporate
Relations 604-684-1175

John B__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:15 - ID#77133)
I'd call that an excellent review. thanks for saving me $28.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:15 - ID#413307)
@ all: The kitco graph accessed through the World Gold Council's
"Gold Links" page is updating. None of the graphs accessed via the
Kitco Web site seem to be updating.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:16 - ID#290287)
just passing along another joke..
A transcript of the new PABX answering service recently installed at the Mental Health Institute...

"Hello goldbugs, welcome to the mental health hotline.

If you are Delusional, press 7, and your call will be transferred to the Mother Ship.

If you are Dyslexic, press 96969696969696.

If you have a Nervous Disorder, please fidget with the hash key until a representative comes on the line.

If you have Amnesia, press 8 and state your name, address, phone number, date of birth, social security number and your mother's and grandmother's maiden names.

If you have Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, slowly and carefully press 000.

If you have Bi-polar Disorder, please leave a message after the beep. Or before the beep. Or after the beep. Please wait for the beep.

If you have Short-Term Memory Loss, please try your call again later.

If you have Low Self Esteem, please hang up. All our operators are far too busy to talk to you.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:22 - ID#289357)

I think a day or so ago, you asked about coin dealers who take credit cards. Here is one.... I don't use this company for bullion coins ( but do for european semi-numismatics ) . Service is excellent - delivery in abt 4 days insured snail mail, and they have a good monthly catalog ( and middle of month special offers ) :

Their current catalog price for US eagles is:

Gold: $323 Silver $7.40 Platinum $386

I presume these vary based on spot prices.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:28 - ID#369352)
It seems that the IMF finds value in Gold: `International monetary
officials are often more comfortable if they have something tangible
with which to confront any unforeseen crisis. Gold provides such real support'. I guess the IMF is worried about getting stuck with bogus currencies, and won't have any money left to bail themselves out.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:31 - ID#434108)
Mutual Funds' Cash Levels at Historic Lows
More evidence of 'brewing' bear-market for U.S. stock-markets.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:36 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron, thanks. I've bookmarked it.
Here is a link in return, a shorter version of the US government directory, in case you need to look up some mining law, find how much money they are printing today, need to see if your toilet tank is street legal or find a spotted owl nest in your palm tree. ( %-^] )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:38 - ID#434108)
Mutual Fund cash position@
You can find many good charts, and data,
at this web-site/url.
Mutual funds' cash positions/percentages,
are reaching critical/bearish levels,

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:38 - ID#147201)
Texasgoldpost re $7
I just got your post and it looks like about $7. You have juxtaposioned this into today when what I have in mind is some preliminary education to the publis ( ?? ) before they end up this way. If it's $7 per coin, the 17 coins would buy $119 worth. I had to use calc on 17 x 7. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:41 - ID#433172)
B.S. doctor George here..Remove spark plug...remove oil plug drain oil..shake it. Pull starter cord to clear upper paper towel in sparkplug hole..repeat..repeat...replace plugs. Drain carbueartor..feed 100% alcohol into carb any way youi can..drain..refill with fresh gas and oil...throw it away and buy a honda.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:44 - ID#252150)
For some reason (paranoia?) I'm not comforted by this excerp from the WGC
commenting on IMF, & will be surprised if "unknown contingencies" don't start popping up with alarming regularity:

`It has remained the majority view that it is better for the fund to preserve its gold
against unknown
contingencies rather than sell it to invest the proceeds elsewhere,'' said Ware.
``International monetary

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:46 - ID#14431)
jonesy--your review
Thx for your summation of Gotthelf's book. Sounds like I'll take a pass on it, like John B. Actually, I'm not interested much in the options and futures stuff, but more the monetary role of PMs. Sounds like one chapter is all i'd get on that, in this book.

Anybody out there know of good books out there that concentrate on the monetary role of PMs?

Thanks again, jonesy. I appreciate your time and trouble.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:47 - ID#242325)
IMF may not sell much gold, but perhaps they will start leasing it. No mention of leasing in that WGC report.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:52 - ID#410198)
Silverbaron.......those prices are a little rich then again if you buy a roll of $5 gold and a roll
of silver and pay $148 more just so you can use a credit card I suppose some would be happy with that

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:52 - ID#289357)
They may have ALREADY leased it, and that may be why they aren't selling it.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:56 - ID#289357)

I absolutely agree - that's why I have never bought any bullion coins from them. However they do have reasonable prices on some of the collector stuff I buy occasionally.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:57 - ID#251166)
@ John B and Fergie
John B -- You're welcome.

Since I'm on this non-review review roll, lemme punch out a few more. ( I crank through books as if they were fiat paper. )

Another PM book available at, *The Cautious Investor's Guide to Profits in Precious Metals,* is also too basic and outdated for anyone here. Don't remember Amazon's price, but it's available in most libraries. Don't buy it, borrow it.

*Market Wizards,* by Jack D. Schwager, also at, IS A MUST-HAVE if you have any interest at all in trading. Enough's already been said about it here at Kitco. Lots of good reviews at the Amazon site too. Only $12 -- a steal.

*Panics and Crashes,* by Harry D. Schultz ( the guy's got a web site too ) , is arguably the best book I've read on the psychology of markets. For example, we're in a panic phase right now. As Kaplan observes, people are more afraid of missing out on a good buy than they are of a market crash. Dangerous territory. Check out the VIX ( volatility index ) -- the complacency of investors is unmatched since -- yup, you guessed it -- since around 1929. Schultz goes into the history of all the major foreign and domestic panics going back to the South Sea bubble and the original Tulipmania. What, in your best estimate, would you conclude to be the common derailing factor in all those crashes ( besides, of course, primal fear and greed ) ? Yes, good guess: GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION. Which made what Rubin and pals did last month so alarming. Cycles ebb and flow. It's when socialist-style government tries to smooth over the dips and bumps that we get even wobblier. But all that's already been said here. Schultz goes into how all the great players kept their cool -- weren't afraid to go short -- during the Depression. Did you know more millionaires were created during the Depression than during the boom years that preceeded? The only problem with Schultz's book is that it's out of print. My library quit letting me renew it so I had to photocopy the thing. If you can get your hands on it, it's worth a study.

Hey, you want a great book that'll answer a lot of questions about the transition into the information age? Check out, buy it, bid up the price, steal it, however you can get it, get it -- *The Sovereign Individual,* by Davidson & Rees-Mogg. These are the same guys who brought us *Blood In The Streets* and *The Great Reckoning.* TSI discusses predatory government ( you'll actually see more similarities than differences between the U.S. gov't. today and the Catholic Church of the Dark Ages ) , the how's, why's and wheretofor's of the emergence of the welfare state, and how you, my friend, can position yourself.

That book jibes very well with Yourdon's *Time Bomb 2000,* re. Y2K, another no-brainer buy.

This is fun. But I gotta get back to work. Later.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:57 - ID#147201)
gagnrad re your 14:11
That's a good point. It would definitely mak the physical size larger. I originally thought that "pure" gold would be good-9999 fine. The size works out , as I originally tought, to be 1 cm diameter with a slightly raised edge for strength. I made a 3 grain sample by beating down a small nugget very thin. I could not bend it with my hands. It was probably about 85% or more and I don't know the alloy since it was natural. I'm still trying to work this concept down to a point where it will either work or it won't. Thanx, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:57 - ID#217268)
Russians to Create New Moon
According to the story contained in the following URL and last night's Art Bell show, the Russians are scheduled to launch on Nov. 9, 1998 a satellite that will contain hundreds of mirrors to circumnavigate the earth around the Siberian/Seattle latitude to create light 100x that of a full moon and 50% its apparent size. Who's brain fart is this ? Didn't the IMF or some other organization just lend ( give ) the Russians $21B to FEED THEMSELVES !!!!! Then again the Leonid Meteor Showers should pass by the following week and blow-out the candle.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 14:59 - ID#251166)
@ Fergie
You're welcome, too.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:04 - ID#410198)
Silverbaron....should of looked at their numis are right they are good prices ...then
again they call them BU's I may call them VF's then the prices are not good,sorry I question everything a 60's thing :- )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:05 - ID#434108)
Stock-Market @ recent New Highs; but with collapsing breadth
U.S. investment markets are revealing themselves,
as the proverbial 'Titanic'.
Taking on more 'water - more hits - more stocks....
succumbing to the 'bear'....

The importance of this fundamental shift,
for world-capital-flows, cannot be

U.S. dollar denominated stocks, bonds, markets,
are about to reverse their 16 year bull-tide.

Alternative currencies, & physicals/commodities, and
precious metals, have formed their basing-bottoming
patterns, for 2 or 3 quarters, now.

As the majority of U.S. stocks, continue to decline,
more and more 'alternative' investment markets
will begin, or continue, their new bull markets.

Silver, and Coffee, are two most recent/current examples.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:08 - ID#242325)
market outlook.
I expect the US stock market to be a lot lower by October, but would only short the rallies. Those expecting a big immediate smash probably will be disappointed. Too many have been conditioned to buy all the dips for this market to crash anytime soon.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:08 - ID#289357)
Hmmmmmmmmm.....that satellite ought to be REALLY good for 'global warming' - maybe we need to get tree-hugging Mr. Gore working on that...

Mountain Goat
(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:16 - ID#349183)
@Old Gold RE: Market Outlook
Agreed. I think that the 401k money pouring into the equities markets won't dry up very quickly either.
All those fund managers sitting on billions of $ have to put it somewhere.

The market WILL go down, but I'm thinking it'll 'bump' down by degrees, and not go into a free-fall. ( Though I kinda wish it would free-fall - if only to wake up all the sheeple from their apathetic slumber. )


MG ( Together gold we watch new this market, yes? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:17 - ID#353204)
The incredible be-ness of lightning
And a big "howdy-do" to everyone.

Farf is Barf
Peutz? Kaputz?
Another? Why Bother?

But your sole best predictor and lone provider is back
Way Back.

Can somebody give me an update on the Dow-gold ratio?
Is that still available here, promptly at the close?
Gold-silver? Gold-XAU? Gold-Hotel occupancy rate in Terre-Haute?
Gold-precipitation in Corpus Christi?

Gold is doing just as I said it was going to do back in February.
Did you expect any different?
Did you expect Old-Mold to say anything different besides
"But when it does happen..."?

What a glorious, wonderful, life.

P.S. When you say my name, say it right.
It's pronounced "goggled"

John Disney - Sorry to leave you out.
I love you, man.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:18 - ID#434108)
market-outlook//Old-Gold@15:08 (?)
I agree.
I've posted numerous recent 'imho'...
that you could see a final spike, or rally, in the DJIA...
to/toward 10,000 level.

The 16 year bull-market,
is not going to 'die',
'the final hook' .

Seems to me,
we need to see the Dow - at record high numbers...
( 9,800 - 10,000 ) - ? ....
plastered on the front-page/s - the HEADLINES --
of most U.S. newspapers...

before this bull-market is finally over.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:23 - ID#434108)
Cash no longer pouring-in, to Mutual Funds//Mountain-Goat@15:16
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 14:38
goldfevr ( Mutual Fund cash position@ ) ID#434108:
You can find many good charts, and data,
at this web-site/url.
Mutual funds' cash positions/percentages,
are reaching critical/bearish levels,

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:27 - ID#350179)
goggled back at ya!
Let 'er rip.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:34 - ID#353204)
you want rip? Man I am ripped. Buff. Three months of nothing but free weights.
Let's go back to April 15. Tax day. Did I not tell aural-pile or
what? There in the permanent record. Still there, along with
the Vromsky anthem. What happen to the Nik, Vrom-Vrom? How
many days extrapolate before it hits negative territory?

Careful, all, I am in a very cantankerous mood. No one escapes my
wrath, especially a little tweak to RJ ( but just a little ) who
posted very infrequently here when platinum did the Monte Cristo
sack dive and showed up only to shower himself with congratulations
when bubbles rose to the surface.

Let's play the "countdown to goodbye" game.
Let's predict how many days ( hours? ) before your
best aug-er is no longer?

Mountain Goat
(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:43 - ID#349183)
@goldfevr RE: Mutual Fund Liquidity
I appreciated the link to the cash percentage graph so much that I had already bookmarked it from your previous post! Thanks!

( BUT )

It shows how much liquidity is held by the mutual fund managers, si?
So do you ( does anyone ) have a chart that gives cash inflows to the mutuals? ( by week, month, whatever )

Your graph shows how much cash the fund managers are keeping OUT of the markets, but my point was: The sheeple keep dumping in MORE.
( And thus the fund managers are obliged to make use of it! )

401k contributions are typically reviewable/changeable at the beginning of each quarter. Joe Sixpack won't be able to make quick changes to the contributions mix... He'll just leave things be until he's really bleeding, and by then he'll have lost much. And so my main point ( my main guess/hypothesis ) is that money will still keep pouring in for a while, even after the market makes some steep drops, simply because the sheeple's 401k money will still keep pouring in, good market or bad. ( For maybe a quarter or two past when any sensible person who actually paid attention to their investments would have pulled out. )

So I'm thinking that a full-scale no-bottom-in-sight crash is less likely. And as I said, I kinda hope I'm wrong.

Definitely IMVHO.


MG ( Yes gold we market together watch new, this? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:49 - ID#431263)
and world headquarters building closed!--CNBC Report ANOTHER sign of a bottom? Hepcat back as gogold?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:51 - ID#251166)
@ Gogold
Hiya! What's gold gonna do over the next few weeks and months? Thanks!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:52 - ID#258427)
Did sound familiar, huh, Cheesehead..
gogold and fat...crap...

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:52 - ID#24135)
Life is but a dream ...
For Old gold ..
leasing schmeasing .. didnt I spend all last year
in dread of impending IMF gold sales .. wasnt every
rally aborted by some jerk like Eddie George the
Bank of England song-and-dance man saying lets sell
all the IMF gold and give the proceeds to some poor
bugger somewhere or other.
Did I dream that ??
Is this all a dream or am I stuck with it ??

for goggled ..
You can leave me out any time ..

for Oris .. Are you somehow involved in the new Russian
moon project .. are you using technology developed
from that now famous "v........." checking device .. the

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:54 - ID#212323) hat is off to you
Either five bucks of five weeks...that was indeed the bottom.

On a different issue altoghter, no need for gratuitous has a tendency to spiral out of control--like blowing on a gasoline fire.

Aragorn III
(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:55 - ID#212323)

(Wed Jul 22 1998 15:56 - ID#287186)
A 10-grain Gold Coin
If this coin is going to collectors, then put it in a velvet lined gift box and charge US$20 for it. There wont be a problem of figuring out its trade value and making change for it if it will never be USED to buy jeans at Wal-Mart.
Keep It Simple so I can buy a Whopper, Fries and a Shake with it. I dont care if it is the size of an aspirin tablet. Ill carry my coins in one of those clamshell coin purses like the old-timers hereabouts still use.
Their value might initially be converted to dollars but eventually and HOPEFULLY price tags will be denominated in grains of GOLD. A pair of jeans now priced at US$29.95 would be priced at 50 GG ( Gold Grains ) .
Keep it in grains - not grams. Grams would necessitate more decimal points which illiterate/ilnumerate people wont be able to figure out.
Dont EVEN ask the toy police! Do not market it as a toy! Dont open that Pandoras box! Instead treat them like watch/calculator batteries ( which will also be worth their weight in Gold after Y2K )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:01 - ID#286284)
@ All - Silver stocks down another 1.5 mil. ozs.

Moreover, the Sept-Dec spread has narrowed to 2.9 cents, indicating a certain physical tightness and higher implied lease rates.

Floor rumours: The silver that Buffet lent out is due for return ( the lease term was apparently six months. ) Will Buffet lend it out again? If so, at what rates? A miserly 3%? Or perhaps something more substantial?

This is the talk, FWIW.


Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:04 - ID#353204)
huffin and puffin
and trying not to singe my own eyebrows.

Of course it's me.
And thanks to everyone who kept the flame alive in my ( too long )

I have much to tell about gold in the next few days.
And much that must be done to prepare for the next move.
But it will take some work on youze all's part.
And you must gather flowers to strew at my feet.

So get busy gatherin.
And tell the loudmoufs to shut the hell up.
Cuz the cat is back, baby.
And Kitco is alive once again.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:04 - ID#350179)
gogold@How long?
Jeez, I dunno...
We're all such nice, accessible, zealous individuals here...
23.5 days?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:10 - ID#252391)
Goldfv and Mountain Gaot
I appreciate the URL of market guages, also. Bookmarked

Funny thing is that very few of the indicators are bearish. Maily neutral.

I think the perspective on the 401k flow my joe six pack is very valuable, and is probably at the heart of what we'll see as the market rolls on. This liquidity issue was missed by most market forecasters as the factor pushing the market higher over the last few year- certainly by me. About the time 401ks stop their flow into stocks after a few months of frustrating action you have the Japanese able to invest in the American market in a big way beginning at year's end.

Dow 10,000 before Gold 315

Sideways to down for the stock market for a few months, then another run; gold looks eternally trapped under 300. Question whether silver can proceed to rise unless stocks significantly come off to about 75 million oz at Comex. We say the short covering in PT and PD and prices have been turned back - same likely in silver??

The stock market's run is not over yet and depending on the size of the Japanese move and the stabalization of Asia, DOW 10,000 may only be the beginning . Funny, higher stock prices seem to attract buyers while higher gold prices seem to discourage and provide an excuse for a decline.

Someday it will be different - but not yet.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:11 - ID#353204)
and don't forget the sliver
and trout sparkling like it in "Cold Mountain".

It is ready to sparkle again - Yes?

Not quite. First it must do a little swimming upstream....

Guruspeak. EBswale. Has proper English been discarded
here as if it were a 1/25 oz. Cat?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:13 - ID#218386)
and your claim to flame is????????????

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:15 - ID#430221)
 am not acquainted with your posting name. Would like to know
what I am dealing with: Animal, Vegtable, or Mineral? Or a mixture?

We are all a little sensitive about gold here.

We don't think we are waiting for Godot. We are GO GOLD.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:15 - ID#434108)
Mutual-fund Liquidity/market-health/ Mountain-Goat
I'll look around for..any sites... revealing..
'where they're putting the new-cash/401-k, etc.

Meanwhile, I think the drop in cash on hand,
as the markets have accelerated, see
is 'truth enough' ....
of an unsustainable pattern, that is completing - reaching it's ....exhaustion-point....

It is just possible, that the mutual fund managers,
will wake-up, one day soon, and discover that they are,
really, human-beings, just like all the rest of us.

That means, among other things, that they too,
can know ...'FEAR' .

Just because cash is pouring in to their coffers,
does not mean they have to throw it into the market;
altho their previous/recent robot-like behavior ...
suggests such a momentum of insanity, could well continue,
for one more brief chapter.

They - the fund-managers, are waking up;
even as they are playing a poker-game with each other,
they are beginning to hedge their bets.

They can & will accumulate substantial cash positions,
as much as they can.

Redemptions are already begining to drain their cash reserves,
and their equity positions.

They are beginning to rob Peter, to pay Paul.

The 'Titanic' is about to break in two.

'Life-boats', anyone....?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:17 - ID#258142)
IMF Gold
Last week, Wed Jul 15 1998 17:14 to be precise, I have posted a message with suggestion that IMF can consider to sell part of its gold. I also wrote that expect more messages on this subject. There was practically no reply - only Spud Master called me for some reason a baby and was so kind to explain to me that "IMF can press a button and create as many electronic slave-debt dollars they need". I saw at least 7 messages on this subject today. What happened? Is it because it is in mass-media news now?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:18 - ID#353204)
I am the Cat. The glorious Cat.
The glabrous, scabrous, wondrous That.
The original one. The only one.
The most fantasical holy one.

Back from the dead.
Resurrected, as it were.

Not once, but twice.

Tough to do.

All it's all for free,
so far as you know.

Imagine - True wisdom dispensed for free.
Who would go out of their way to silence that?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:19 - ID#57232)
I fear that your namesake may be rubbing off on you
goldfevr: I am a died-in-the-wool goldbug, but I have been beaten down in the two-year gold bear we just had. If I was wealthy I would buy and hold, or buy precious metals only. But, I am not, and I am pretty good at making money with gold mutual funds intermediate term as long as the market is at least neutral. Have for years. But -- I was nailed by the recent bear - good.
I think your and my difference of opinion are probably based only in time scale of investment. I agree with you that gold is going up, and that Newmont is one of the best American gold producers. But not until the commodity index stops plummeting. I am kicking myself for predicting the drop in CRY0 over a year ago, and failing to read my own notes. Also, remember what happened last October when SEAsia melted down? I lost nearly 10k betting gold would go up because of market uncertainty. It went down instead, because so many countries over there had a gold fire sale. You see, most of us are not familiar with these deflationary times, since most of us are too young to remember the events leading up to the great depression. I am not going to lose 10k again. This time I will wait and buy some more when the gold equities bottom again. If you do not believe me, just watch RJ or the Oldman -- they are pros. I have only been doing this since 1993.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:23 - ID#210235)
@to the cat
welcome back.
Style and substance. Yes.
Donald does post ratio updates regularly, with more features than previously.
No, not surprised you again bespoke gold's price trend correctly.
Be mindful, Mr. Cat, Bart is showing no mercy to flamers these days.

John Disney__A
(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:24 - ID#24135)
Is it a cat ..or a rat .. in a hat
I give up ..
What is it ??
for gargoyle

Glad to hear you spent some time building yourself
up because you need that..
I spent the last three months arm wrestling with
fire breathing dragoons ( god what breath ) , jousting,
and fencing with the 30 kilo sword..
I await your dubious contribution with considerable

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:24 - ID#210235)
I just keep dialing 96699996696
and can't seen to get through

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:24 - ID#258427)
Gogold...have you heard about
Bart's 404?.... You just might find out..!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:25 - ID#347235)
Don't look now but I think F* is back!!!IMVHO anyway, hopefully he will behave a little better this time. Welcome back if its you.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:26 - ID#298380)
To all
How long do you think it will take Bart to put the
404 axe on Gogold?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:26 - ID#353204)
Let's see. Last time we left off...
Big Tip Tom owed me an apology for some inane attempt to say
I was wrong to say RJ had been right about not being long on
gold. We saw where the other shrew dropped on that call.
Farfel is belly up somewhere, unsalved by a good woman.

Doubting Tom - how many times do I have to show you before you relieve?

Mountain Goat
(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:27 - ID#349183)
@goldfevr & jims
Goldfevr: Good point... new 401k money pouring in may just go right back out as redemptions increase. Very good point. Hmmmm.
And your original graph of cash-on-hand is an amazing indicator of just how quickly equities will turn around when ( if they haven't already ) redemptions begin to exceed inflows. No cash on hand? Then sell. No other choices.

Jims: With a new Prime Minister in Japan, especially one that's perceived to be 'ineffectual', do you realy see Japan getting up off the mat by the end of THIS YEAR? That soon? I'm thinking not, but we'll know in 6 months. So I'll see your $315 and raise you $50 before I'd ever gamble on 10,000 DOW.


MG ( Go Goggled? Go gold goggles? Go kittykat? What? Who? )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:28 - ID#431366)
Chas - I'm glad you tossed your idea into the forum here.
Lots of minds and ideas to help you work the bugs out.
I look forward to having a purse of Gold coins with which to buy groceries and beer with.
The small change could be done with Silver.
How many 10 grain Silver coins would I give a customer who filled up her Subaru's gas tank if she paid the me ( the cashier ) with 10-grain Gold coins? The price on the pump is 2 Gold Grains per Gallon.
Methinks we better have Silver coins in a variety of Grain Sizes too.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:31 - ID#246224)
Welcome back, Mr H Cat
Hepcat, at that
Never loved but always right
Finding a place in the golden light
to slyly sit and preen
occationally casting
a look of contempt
upon the feline's

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:32 - ID#287193)
Should or could it be Year 2007?..Hi sharefin..
I listen to G.North last week on Shortw.WCR. Was he asked today about this story?

ASHINGTON POST: U.S. Air Traffic Computers Cleared
For YEAR 2000

07/22/98, Infoseek News US air traffic computers cleared for 2000,
says Post

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Federal Aviation Administration technicians
have concluded that a critical mainframe computer used in the nation's
largest air traffic control centers will function properly in the year 2000,
the Washington Post reported in Wednesday editions.

The determination, reached over the past few weeks by programmers,
came despite warnings from International Business Machines Corp,
the system's manufacturer, that the agency should replace the

``The examination has revealed that the ( system ) will transition the
millennium in a routine manner,'' FAA Administrator Jane Garvey told
the Post in an interview.

The mainframe computers at issue are used at the FAA's 20 air route
traffic control centers to track high-altitude aircraft between airports.

Last October, IBM warned that it lacked the appropriate skills and tools
to determine if the Model 3073 mainframes would malfunction in the
year 2000, by mistaking the year 2000 for the year 1900, the
newspaper reported.

The problem arises because many older computer systems record
dates using only the last two digits of the year. If left uncorrected, such
systems could treat the year 2000 as the year 1900, generating errors
or system crashes.

The FAA is planning to replace the mainframes but was unsure it could
complete the process by 2000, so officials embarked on an aggressive
testing program to figure out how the computer system would be
affected, the Post said.

The technicians found that the software that controls the computer's
most basic functions, or microcode, doesn't consider the last two digits
of the year when processing dates.

Instead it stores the year as two-digit number between one and 32,
assuming that 1975 was year one. As a result, they determined, the
system would fail in 2007, but not in 2000.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:34 - ID#431263)
No, this ain't F*. This is Herr Hepcat--a legend in his own mind and well respected by his peers here at Kitco! Right Bart?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:36 - ID#430221)
Gold stocks
I made this comment before but will repeat as still stands. When
I look at the charts of DROOY and RANGY I think they have bottomed.
When I look at charts of NEM and ABX I can see another leg down.
Since it is probably not possible for both to be correct at the same
time.....I wonder which is correct?

If nothing happens by end of September ( gold doesn't go up ) I am
going to assume the worst: bankruptcy for MANY mines.


Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:37 - ID#375108)
Just emerged from a three-week sabbatical from Kitco-lurking and find the cat is back! Man, your gold and stock calls have been as good as anyone's what's in the wind for gold now? Hi-ho, hi-ho, back into the woodwork I go ( before the better half discovers me here ) ...{poof}

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:39 - ID#353204)
Formula 404
Use the Shift key on that one to see what Bart would be missing.

{Extra credit for anyone who figures out that one - place in my
house, meybee?]

Bart has demonstrated an intolerance for correctness before.
He is anything but predictable.

No matter. You can obviously do without me.
( While reading this, it is best to hum the following string of
numbers: 390, 380, 370, 360, 350, 340, 325, 310, 290, 272 )
I mean clearly, Phfwootz and Farflootz and Faux Farsi-schmutz
have guided this site well in the interim. Haven't they?
Aren't you all rich from their rich purple prose-haze?
Aren't they the reason why the site rakes in the awards for
"Best Performance by 'The Pretenders'"?

Don't settle for imitations. Why buy the bargain brand?

The cat is back and wired for sound.
Radio Free Cat.

Spud Master
(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:42 - ID#28586)
@Delphi nee LGB
I never called you a baby. Since you are a LGB ( ug ) , I would have called you a 'grub' or 'larva'. ( grin ) .

Who owns the IMF?
Who owns those who own the IMF?
What does the IMF "lend" out?


What are dollars?

Either nothing, or certificates of slavery today.

1 ) There is no accountablilty for the IMF.
2 ) It loans out nothing, or slavery.

Frantic hand-wringing over the IMF being "broke", "out of money", "or perilously low in reserves" are most amusing. Highly risable.

Pathetically so.

I suspect that there are only two things the IMF fears:

#1 The BIS & their gold -- that someone MIGHT demand OR use REAL money, i.e. gold & silver.

#2 That the world might wake up and discover the dollar isn't anything -- this is also called Emperor's New Clothes Syndrome. Poor pathic IMF & Federal Reserve -- all dressed up like important people, with no one to lick their boots & fawn in groveling servility at their feet anymore.

Like all b*ll sh*t paper monies designed to deceive & enslave, the current false US dollar ( aka Federal Reserve Note ) will end up on the scrap-heap of history along with the worthless Russian Ruble, the Mexican Peso, the Italian Lira, the Indonesian Rupiah, etc& etc&

However, I will help out the IMF -- here, Tolerant1, is one quadrillion dollars, please pass it along to yer bud Clamdessus @ theIMF.

Spud, feeling generous with make-believe numbers.
1776 Now!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:43 - ID#353204)
Golden Kraftwerk- The fact that you survive on this site
is testament to the fact that you aren't trying hard enough.

I mean, can't you even get kicked off for CAPITAL offenses?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:43 - ID#20748)
China Missile Tested During Clinton Visit
"As mark of disrespect."

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:44 - ID#347235)
Herr Goldener Kasekopf
Sie sind viel korrekt, ich vergeesen die hepcat. ich mussen ausuben mein Deutch veilich wir gehen nach Garmisch zu wohnen.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:49 - ID#432298)
Gold Dancer........ ...... (re: Gold Stocks)
I have NEVER seen mining stocks get so "battered" If things don't turn around by months end, I'll see myself thinking of bailing out and NEVER looking back at this type of investment. Soon many of these compainies will have NO value and I too see many bankruptcies forth coming. I have investments in Golden Star Resources and they keep saying they have some positive news coming out shortly, if they wait any longer the stock will be worthless and ANY good news will have NO impact on the stock making a turnaround!!

Go Gold!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:54 - ID#20748)
Welcome back.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:54 - ID#242325)
Hepcat: Welcome back if it is really you! Your wisdom is sorely needed.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:55 - ID#353204)
did someone call my name?
Don't despair of those gold stocks just yet. They still
have the potential to go down a little further.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:56 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum & Silverbugs
Monex spot silver @ 2:03 pst -- $5.66

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:58 - ID#353204)
well now, a call for wisdom
and at the same time more calls for eviction.

Old Gold - Your time is almost at hand. Polish up that speech,
because there is something akin to a ghost in the machine.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:58 - ID#431263)
Have no fear, mein Herr! There's a beautiful triple bottom forming on the XAU chart with rising Balance of Power and rising Moneystream! And as long as 61 holds on the downside, it's UP, UP AND AWAY "in the fullness of time" as old Ed Hart used to say! AG is preparing the markets for the Hepcat tsunami this Fall--which, by the way, is what I expect the market to do for the rest of July!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 16:59 - ID#434108)
Gold-Shares inching their way into a new bull-market.
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 14:11
goldfevr ( Selling 1/2 of gold-funds; JTF @13:28 ) ID#434108:
You may be "right",
there may not be and endless-bottoming opportunity
remaining, much longer.

The discouragement, pessimism, among gold investors/traders, is so thick you could cut it
with a knife.

imho: The 'XAU' is beginning to work it's way,
up and away from...
the -70- level/range/area.... in the weeks just ahead.

The stock NEM, is a heavily weighted component of the XAU.
Because this stock has recently moved to new lows ( -bottom ) ,
vs it's lows of Dec/Jan., it helps 'disguise' the bull-market that is brewing, in precious metals,
by keeping the XAU held-back/down,
at the current 70-level.

I believe there may be one last upside rally
- perhaps even a spike - up...
for the DJIA/stock-markets....
and as I've posted here before, I believe this 'final-hurrah' - rally for U.S. markets could
carry the DJIA to/toward 10,000.

At the same time, imho:
gold will not sell-off anymore.....but instead,
will work its way higher.

Silver, Platinum, & Paladium markets have already bottomed,
for this cycle.

Gold, and mining shares, are about to follow suit.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:00 - ID#242325)
Eddie George, liar
John Disney: Looks like Eddie George was pulling the wool over eyes. His function apparently was to talk POG down. But gold's failure to rally today on the news that IMF sales, if any, probably will be quite modest is troubling. If it can't rally on good news, the course of least resisitance remains down.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:01 - ID#432298)
New Prime Minister of Japan?
Any comments on the impact on gold for each potential prime minister of Japan? Who would have the "most positive" impact on gold?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:01 - ID#353204)
Hepcat tsumani?
What prompted that eponymous assignation?

What about peddling a line of 'Hepcat salami'?
Or Hepcat T ( s ) una ami?

Thanks for the re-greetings, everyone.
It's good to be back for a short time.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:02 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.06. The 50 day moving average is 30.64

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:03 - ID#430221)
Golden Cheesehead
What ever happened to Ed Hart? I thought he was the only commentator
on TV to ever tell the truth.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:03 - ID#246224)
To all who do not know him
Hepcat, aka gogold - the inimitable, has been the most on target, albeit manic and at time easily disliked, of progosticators to post at Kitco. He makes 'brassy' look dull to say the least. But we do look forward to his calls and he will never tell you why he makes the call, so don't bother asking. I doubt it matters since he has been so on target. If you can find an positive indicator that is better, I don't know where.

Enough strewn flowers for now. Hep, its time for your magic show to begin.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:05 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .237. The 50 day moving average is .248. There have been 36 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #24. The #1 ranking is the same as last night.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:05 - ID#431263)
The answer is NONE OF THE ABOVE--they're all pawns of the Nikkei Mafia, and they ain't buyin' any gold--YET!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:09 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 51.93. The 50 day moving average is 55.28

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:11 - ID#242325)
Hepcat: You are going to face some tough competition. RJ and John Disney have been pretty hot lately. And both are still quite bearish.on POG in dollars, although Disney is bullish on SA gold stocks.because of rand smash.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:11 - ID#432298)
Well then it is certain. There will be another downturn in gold come the announcement this Friday of the new prime minister of Japan. After all, neither one is supportive for gold anyway....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:12 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $294.17; spot silver $5.32, XAU 72.94

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:13 - ID#353204)
Allenusa - your kindness has been noted
and your thumbnail sketch will help the stragglers.
It will all become clear soon enough.
But I still need to luxuriate in petal scent.
And more people need to get some baby's breath.

Before I tell you the exciting news.

You must build up to the introduction of the grand announcement,
and I'm still waiting for absolute confirmation, but all in
good time.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:13 - ID#431263)
Sorry to say, Ed Hart died over two years ago! They had a special for him on CNBC that I taped and watch from time to time when there's a lot of "tension on the tape" as there appears to be NOW! Eh, Hepcat? Sure do miss old Ed! He taught me one important lesson--don't trust NOBODY! Not even yourself! Always get a second opinion--and if in doubt, a third!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:14 - ID#258427)
Silver futures still climbing
up 2-3.5 cents on DBC...go silver ( squeeze ) ...go ssc

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:15 - ID#251166)
@ Gazebo (Obuchi's got the edge right now; see also today's 11:16, re. Yen)

Experts Hail Fiscal Policy Pledges Of
Premier Contenders
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Leading Japanese economists praised calls
by the three candidates for president of the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party to scrap or freeze the Fiscal Structure
Reform Law in order to revive the Japanese economy.

Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, former Chief Cabinet
Secretary Seiroku Kajiyama and Health Minister Junichiro
Koizumi formally filed their candidacies Tuesday. Whoever is
elected LDP president will become prime minister because
the party controls the lower house of the Diet.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun Inc. asked five leading economists to
evaluate the contenders' economic platforms.

Iwao Nakaya, economics professor at Hitotsubashi
University, said "The Japanese economy may plunge into
depression if the government clings to the Fiscal Structure
Reform Law." The other four endorsed the candidates'
proposals for the law, albeit somewhat less dramatically.

Kazutaka Kirishima, senior economist at Sumitomo-Life
Research Institute Inc., criticized Koizumi for wanting to
abolish the law, saying that reducing the budget deficit
remains an important medium-term goal that Japan should
adhere to.

As for a permanent tax cut of 6 trillion yen proposed by
Obuchi, Susumu Takahashi, head of research at Japan
Research Institute Inc., said the personal income tax
component of the cut alone need be worth 5 trillion yen.

Professor Nakaya said a 6 trillion yen cut would not be
sufficient and that additional tax credits for housing and
information equipment are needed.

Hirohiko Okumura, economics professor at Gakushuin
University, however, criticized the proposed tax cuts,
warning that increased issuance of deficit-covering bonds
may lead to a sharp increase in long-term interest rates.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday morning edition )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:16 - ID#353204)
Cheese Whiz, just to make sure I understand you
You are insinuating that I have knowledge of a Dow-n turn?
Or that it is going to happen despite me?
Or you are wishing?
Or what?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:16 - ID#434108)
In other words,
you don't know what is going to happen next....?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:17 - ID#317193) wentgold...what's in a name to take credit somehow..
Always wished I was omnipotent. At least someone claims to be right all the time. $285 or $320 by end of July...starting to look like $285. $272.. Doubt it.

Now if we can just get the rest of the 404's back this site will rock!


(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:17 - ID#258142)
Spud Master, 16:42
You know, English is not my mother language, so it is a bit difficult for me to decode your biology analogies. May be you can explain them in more plain language? Regarding LGB and his ideology. I never followed it and have my own. At least I think so. I think, I am here about same the time as LGB, but do not post often. And I am not that young to mimic anybody.
The subject of my message, posted a week ago was simple - currently IMF claim publicly, that it has no cash after a deal with Russians. I made a suggestion: if they talk it publicly, that can be used as an excuse for gold sale. Today its a news item - are they going to sell or not? Or may be, lent? Thats all.
PS about "baby". You did. Here is a quote from my file: "Come on, Delpi-baby, THERE IS NO *MONEY* anymore".

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:20 - ID#251166)
@ Delphi
I think Spud meant that affectionately. Kojak used to talk that way until they cancelled him.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:21 - ID#434108)
Silver's renewed 'bull', identified last week-end, w-out worshipping @ the altar of gogold & hep-cat
Date: Mon Jul 20 1998 15:14
goldfevr ( Silver's bull-market, has been previously identified. ) ID#434108:
From 7/19/98 post, at 22:33; regarding Silver's bull market.
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:21 - ID#431263)
I know, I know! You're now A RAGING GOLD BULL! And are now about to declare the grand beginning of THE MOTHER OF ALL GOLD BULL MARKETS! And if that's the case--YOU'RE RIGHT ON THE MONEY! What took yourself so long to come clean and come out of the closet in gold drag? : )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:23 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
There ya are! September Silver: 5700. Now.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:23 - ID#353204)
I know exactly what is going to happen next
I'm going to post. It's the afternext that I'm still waiting to
hear about. But something bescooted the air this morning, there
was a perceptable ( there, did you feel it? ) shiver from below the
earth's rind. And so I activated a password I had long on reserve,
and may have to activate another, judging from the calls from the

PSSST. Buying gold is not immediately required, but I would start
considering looking at the possibility of peeking at the accounts
just to be ready when the PSSSST becomes more PSSSSSTent.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:26 - ID#267344)
AG's most recent statements concerning gold...
QUESTION: ``You seem to welcome a downturn in the economy to compensate for the surge, or modest growth in the economy ... We talk about when is the Fed going to intervene and turn down the economy and you seem to welcome the fact that this Southeast Asia situation has kept down price pressures.''

GREENSPAN: ``Central banks of necessity determine what the money supply is. If you're on a gold standard or other mechanism where central banks do not have discretion, then the system works automatically. The reason why there is very little support for a gold standard is that the consequences of those types of market adjustments are not considered to be appropriate in the 20th and 21st century. I'm one of the rare people who hold some nostalgic view about the old gold standard, as you know, but I must tell you that I'm in a very small minority.

``... What we do look at is an economy that is running at a pace that is unsustainable at the long run and will eventually run off the tracks and create significant disruptions. We don't look forward to a weakening of growth. All we are concerned about is a pattern of growth that is a sustainable pattern of economic growth. The maximum and sustainable are both crucial elements to that. We can get maximum growth in the short run which is not good for anybody over a longer-term period. And that we would consider to be an unacceptable or undesirable pattern of growth.''


(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:29 - ID#258427)
Jeeeeeeezeee clone
Greenspan really said that!!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:31 - ID#26793)
Some spot silver stats.
As you can see spot silver has closed above its 50 day moving average. It has also closed above its 233 day moving average of $5.57. It last closed above the 233 mark on October 31, 1997, as Warren Buffett began buying, ( according to press reports posted here ) . After the Buffett purchases became public, silver surged to $7.61 on February 5th, an astounding 48.9% above the 233 day moving average on that day. It fell below the 233 mark early in May and two attempts to re-cross the 233 have failed. The re-crossing today was the third attempt.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:33 - ID#434108)
Bull markets in XAU & GOLD, re-awakening, now.
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 14:11
goldfevr ( Selling 1/2 of gold-funds; JTF @13:28 ) ID#434108:
You may be "right",
there may not be and endless-bottoming opportunity
remaining, much longer.

The discouragement, pessimism, among gold investors/traders, is so thick you could cut it
with a knife.

imho: The 'XAU' is beginning to work it's way,
up and away from...
the -70- level/range/area.... in the weeks just ahead.

The stock NEM, is a heavily weighted component of the XAU.
Because this stock has recently moved to new lows ( -bottom ) ,
vs it's lows of Dec/Jan., it helps 'disguise' the bull-market that is brewing, in precious metals,
by keeping the XAU held-back/down,
at the current 70-level.

I believe there may be one last upside rally
- perhaps even a spike - up...
for the DJIA/stock-markets....
and as I've posted here before, I believe this 'final-hurrah' - rally for U.S. markets could
carry the DJIA to/toward 10,000.

At the same time, imho:
gold will not sell-off anymore.....but instead,
will work its way higher.

Silver, Platinum, & Paladium markets have already bottomed,
for this cycle.

Gold, and mining shares, are about to follow suit.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:33 - ID#31876)
Something to Bookmark - Read Later at Your Leasure (It's Lengthy)
"The Preacher" and I discovered Franklin Sanders' contributions
sometime last year.

Preacher, I hope you read and enjoy....

Spud Master
(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:35 - ID#28586)
Jonesy is correct: ( any name ) -baby is meant as a sign of familiarity - not as an insult. Plenty of ham TV-series & pulp novel use it.

My use happens to come from Monty Python ( "Sir Edward, Eddy-baby ... angle-drawers ... may I call you Frank?" ) .

Sorry for confusing you with LGB. Doubtless he is off getting that damn XRS-2200 working. To h*ll with ISP, LGB! I want storable room-temps, you hear? Storable-room temps!

Spud-baby ; )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:36 - ID#353204)
The word I was looking for was
Or suzerainty.

Something - I don't know how to spell either one, and I don't
have a lectionary handle.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:41 - ID#433172)
Whats a good way to buy silver ( bullion ) coins or bars thru the mail. live in a isolated place and have to use the mail?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:43 - ID#43349)
Looks good, but I gotta see 5.72

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:50 - ID#434108)
the fulcrum
we at the height
are ready to decline
we must take the current when it serves
or lose our ventures

a basic shift is taking place

it's like - from a long-term perspective..
the 'high-tide'....
... ( = defined as...
bull-markets in U.S. stocks & bonds/U.S. dollar-defined ) ...
is being replaced, is retreating, with-drawing....

into the 'low-tide'....
where capital seeks more quiet, humble, enduring positions...
where other nations' markets & currencies,
and alternative choices...
such as physical commodities.....
offer more of a...
than does the Dow,
the U.S. bond,
and all the other

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:53 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
You will.

Kaplan writes today: "...COMEX silver warehouse stocks declined by
1,502,956 to 81,571,138, a new 12-year low."

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:54 - ID#43349)
Le chat ex machina
Shine on silvery moon, the were cats are on the prowl
the heat is on, the squeeze is in, the bears do growl

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:54 - ID#273432)

Shipping costs may be important in knowing where for you to purchase silver...where are you?

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:55 - ID#270253)
Ed Hart was one of the best
The late Ed Hart was the most refreshing person I have ever seen on business television. He had a level of common sense that helped me out when I first started trading/investing full time. On Fridays, before long weekends, the old FNN had few guests, so Ed Hart, John Bollinger, Ron Insana, Bill Griffith and some of their local newletter writers would fill up the afternoon. This was when they would shoot from the hip. It was always an education.

Ed Hart once said on the air: Never go out with a woman who has more proiblems than you do, never eat in a restaurant called "Mom's" and never buy anything from a guy in a green suit. Good advice!

Welcome back Hepcat. Don't post too often, and give us only your best stuff.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 17:57 - ID#434108)
silver coins//George_A@17;41

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:05 - ID#30116)
It's amazing what happens in the dog days of summer...
All this concern for earnings! Obviously, the masses have never owned gold stocks. :- )

Or is it, "Sell in May and go away."

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:09 - ID#258142)
Spud Master, Jonesy
OK. Thanks for English lesson, 'grub' and 'larva' included. Good night.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:09 - ID#30116)
I heard Alfred E. Nueman say, "What? Me worry about inflation?"

Perhaps we shall see the return of more old posters...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:10 - ID#273432)

I have an old copy of a survey from the Silver & Gold Report ( now is renamed Safe Money Report ) , on the lowest-cost dealers for silver eagles. Here are the top 5 on their list:

Tangible Investments of America ( in CA ) ( 800 ) 890-1394

Guardian International ( in VA ) ( 800 ) 642-2208

California Numismatic Investment ( in CA ) ( 800 ) 225-7531

Gaithersburg Coin Exchange ( in MD ) ( 800 ) 638-4104

F.J.Vollmer ( in IL ) ( 800 ) 447-8368

If you question is in reference to US postal service vs delivery by UPS etc. perhaps one of these outfits can give you advice. I have a long list of companies, if you want someone closer to your location.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:14 - ID#174239)
401K and mutual funds
Many people don't understand and don't want to understand the stock market. All they know is that thier 401K contribution is some sort of legal tax shelter that will suppliment thier pension and Social security when they retire. They set the contribution to some comfertable level and forget about it. As long as no personal economic crisis forces them to reduce thier contribution, they will continue to buy mutual funds every payday.

I wonder what % of the stock market is owned by mutual funds, and in turn what % of the mutual funds are owned by 401K accounts?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:14 - ID#317193)
wentgold...or...gogold...I understand USAGold has room for ANOTHER poster...
Save your handles.


PS...I have one of them dickshunaries

PSSSSSTent$ ) $

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:15 - ID#43349)
Awww, there's no concern over earnings. Only AG seems to even give a glance with some askance.

"If the models are telling you to sell, sell, sell, but only buyers are out there, don't be a jerk. Buy!" -William Silber, Ph.D. ( N.Y.U. ) , in Newsweek

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:16 - ID#220325)
Martin Armstong todays comments
"there will be several KEY confirming signals that will determine the future and the potential for a 2-year correction ahead.

Basis the United States

The S&P 500 nearest futures must accomplish a weekly closing BELOW 1099. We must achieve a montly closing BELOW 1032.
A year-end closing BELOW 979.

These are the three confirming signals that MUST be achieved this year in order to suggest that we will see a 2-year correction into 2000 or at least a 1 year decline int May-July 1999".

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:16 - ID#430221)
Thanks for last post and article on Gold and Deflation. I agree
with everything this man wrote. The Fed etc. is more afraid of delfation
than inflation.

With the American consumer all spent out and loans still needed to
be made to keep system going explains why World Bank and IMF keep
giving money/loans away.

Several days ago I made the remark that the ballgame is only over
when the "loan" is refused. If Asia is about to refuse the loans and
create their own Bridge Bank then we may be getting closer to that
day. But then there is Russia, Canada, Mexico etc. How long can the
US keep the ponzi game alive? Just how stupid are foreign countries?
There are a surplus of them. The answer will not come from governments.
Only when the people stand up for themselves and say they refuse to
be slaves of the system, then and only then will things change. Not
very likely in my opinion.

That will take hard times. We are not there yet. Except for us poor
gold investors!!!

How ironic!!

Go gold and silver.

Thanks, Denny

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:18 - ID#432148)
Mike Stewart - re Ed Hart
You are sure right about Ed Hart. I listened to him on the radio for many years and heard him speak once. He was the best and also a goldbug as you may recall. A very intelligent dude with a wry sense of humor. I sure miss him.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:26 - ID#269207)
@George, as
with every thing, it depends on volume in most circumstances...

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:30 - ID#431263)
Worse than expected! Now JOB ONE for Joint Chiefs! 3 BILLION pricetag! And no guarantees that they will get it right in time!--CBS

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:30 - ID#430221)
Ed Hart
Poor Ed Hart. He lived to prove Keynes: In the long run we are

all dead. I hope I live to see a good rally in gold!! To hell with

expecting a gold based money system.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:34 - ID#57232)
WhiteHouse surveillance tapes
All: I read the post about surveillance of the White House being fairly easy for a member of the Intelligence group: Military, CIA, NSA. Would be interesting if K Starr had tapes, even if they could not be used directly as evidence.
I have several things to add:
1 ) I think the Secret Service has records -- can't imagine they erase everything -- all visitors to the White House would need to be recorded for posterity in case a major security breach occurred. I wonder what happened when Monica and Bill wanted to be alone. Was any part of the White House really not under surveillance?
2 ) As I recall WJC also had tapes -- his ego must be big enough that he could have made the same mistakes that Nixon made. Wasn't there some commotion some time ago about a missing video?

So -- alot of goings on in the White House must have been recorded -- video and audio. Not good for WJC if Kenneth Starr got his hands on one of these. And, there are the video tapes that WJC's chief security/survellance man made in Arkansas. After he mysteriously and suddenly died, the tapes were stolen from his house. As I recall there was another set of backups secretly hidden, waiting for the right moment to be released. They must have been good if they rated killing the person who took them. And as I recall, all he wanted was to be paid for some service he did during a convention of some kind.
I don't think WJC has ordered anyone killed to protect his presidential hide, but there is a powerful ( and secret ) organization that has helped him move from Arkansas to Washington D.C. I would not want to be WJC if they decide one day he is history.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:38 - ID#430221)
Just think how much money the old "Keeper of the gate" Greenspan
is going to have to create to bail out all the extra expenses of
the Y2K problem. Add stockpiling buy milllions and you have a mini
boom.....and presto..... inflation due to shortages.

I think Alan leaves next April. Just in time of course.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:44 - ID#258427)
Gold Dancer...I agree
I see a y2k buying binge coming and a gearing-up by companies to meet the damand...causing an inflation-like environment of shortages, etc ... followed by a heck of a big slump come y2k....

Makes sense to me...Sept Silver up 4 cents...go silver


(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:45 - ID#434108)
the new holocaust, continues....
Liz Claiborne
Ralston Purina
Oakwood Homes
Computer Associates

when will we ever learn ....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 18:54 - ID#258427)
Yen is going UP....and
sure futures up ( a little ) ...joined at the hip still!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:04 - ID#254112)
I'm impressed with the following quote from AG:
." I'm one of the rare people who hold some nostalgic view about the old gold standard, as you know, but I must tell you that I'm in a very small minority.

``... What we do look at is an economy that is running at a pace that is unsustainable at the long run and will eventually run off the tracks and create significant disruptions. We don't look forward to a weakening of growth."

I think with this haing said, AG would be a good contrarian contribuor to this site.

Does that mean that AG wants to carefully prepare the public for a great turnaround. When the signs of an "unsustainable" economy turn into "running off the tracks and creat ( ing ) significant disruptions", wouldn't that be the right time to turn the economic prescription of the "very small minority" into the main stream opinion?

This guy is good for surprises. IMHO.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:09 - ID#258427)
Great Day!!! Computer Associates down 30%
Reminds me of some Gold stocks that I have owned...: ) )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:13 - ID#433172)
Silver Baron
Thanks for the list, I'll give them a call.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:20 - ID#252150)
Unbelievable@Gogold/Hepcat makes a few innocuous posts & the self styled
censors are warning/threatening him about 404. Have you guys participated in any good book burnings lately?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:24 - ID#252127)
The hard Commodities

6 Jan 98 6 July 98 % Change Aluminum 623100 521350 -16.33%
Copper 340950 246575 -27.68%
Lead 111325 103725 -6.83%
Nickel 26306 59712 -9.95%
Tin 13015 4855 -62.70%
Zinc 491075 390400 -20.50%

In general prices fell except for lead and tin during the time frame from 6 Jan 98 to 6 July 98.

Prices that fell were Aluminum -13.5%, nickle -25%, copper -6.6% and zinc -3.2%.

It seems that the dollar strenght relative to other world currencies is the culprit, but wait the dollar is an accident waiting to happen.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:27 - ID#295111)
Greenspan' s BARF
Maybe Greenspan said what he said in order to coax the small investor to unload more of their "Dow" stocks so that they would be gobbled up by the institutional or large investor. This way, the big guys can control more of the Dow so that it reaches DOW 30,000.

After all, Greenspan had a similar vomit in the fall of 1996 when the DOW was at 6800. AFter he spoke, DOW moved beyond 9000.

Remember, this bull market really is about the stocks in the DOW...small caps have not rode the bull like IBM/MERK/t/ etc.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:28 - ID#353204)
Either I made it too easy or people on this site are getting
smarter. What do you get when you cross the Atlantic with the Titanic?

It's great to be back, everybody. Anybody know how to spell
a word that sounds like susseration, the swishing of skirts?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:29 - ID#252150)
ABX held up well despite weakness in the Aug contract , JY & selling
by indexed funds. I wonder if there could possibly be some recognition of the fact that they are profitable now & next year Pierina will begin producing 750,000 ozs/yr @ $50 cash cost? Nah. Highly unlikely.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:32 - ID#252127)
The hard Commodities

From 6 Jan 98 to 6 July 98 the % Change in LME Warehouse stocks in tonne:

Aluminum 623100 521350 -16.33%
Copper 340950 246575 -27.68%
Lead 111325 103725 -6.83%
Nickel 26306 59712 -9.95%
Tin 13015 4855 -62.70%
Zinc 491075 390400 -20.50%

In general prices fell except for lead and tin during
the above time frame.

Prices that fell were Aluminum -13.5%, nickle -25%,
copper -6.6% and zinc -3.2%.

It seems that the dollar strenght relative to other
world currencies is the culprit, but wait the dollar is
an accident waiting to happen.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:44 - ID#222235)
@hey, James
Sorry if I offended you, but don't want to lose hepcat again. Laughed til I cried at his April Fools joke, one of the best, alas, purged forever from the Kitco archives. This place is definately getting too staid.

Now where's Cherokee?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:46 - ID#430221)
I don't trust the man. He is no longer an economist spouting
theory about what would be nice if...

He is a central banker doing what all central bankers do. Debase
the currencey because there is no alternative with the fiat money
we have. He cannot and will not be the one to change it. All he has done
is manage the numbers, the economy, and where the money goes ( stocks ) .

He is hoping to leave in April of next year and he will get a big
round of applause from Congress, Clinton etc. The gist of the
apprase will be "thanks for the growth without inflation".

Great praise will be heaped on the man. It will be like when
Ronald Raegan praised the S&L bill as a new Day for America. It sure
was..remember what happened next?

After Alan Leaves the S***hits the fan. Of course he helped create
it by allowing all the derrivative trading, cross trading, strong
dollar and low gold prices. But what the hell; it was a great party on
Wall Street. And these are the Boys who will pay him million dollar
speaking fees and he knows it.

Don't bite the hand that feeds you is worth more to him than
honest money. For that, he would only be killed by the powers that be...

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:51 - ID#43349)
What do you get when you cross the Atlantic with the Titanic?
No one knows, because no one has done it yet.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:55 - ID#259400)
(A question)
I am not an optimistic on the price of gold. I can see 200 gold a lot easier than I can 300 gold. My question involves the frequent references to commodities going up. If the stock market tanks and the economy goes down the toilet it would seem to me commodities would go down in value. In a severe recession every endeavor that contributes to the GDP would fall off. With less industrial activity the consumption of commodities would fall. How can falling demand for these items cause them to go up?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 19:58 - ID#43349)
Try sibilation, n'est pas?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:03 - ID#430221)
You are right. Falling demand = falling prices. But we have had that
already!!! The next event is stockpiling by thousands of businesses
and hundreds of millions of people around the world in order to be
safe. All due to what my computer expert friend at Alaska Air Lines
says: Death by a thousand paper cuts=Y2K.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:09 - ID#284255)
A bit long but intriguing
After years of planning, research, and development the world's financial institutions are announcing the much anticipated GLOBAL CASHLESS SOCIETY. The ability to conduct all manner of monetary
exchange is now being replaced by microchip technology and electronic currency.

MONDEX is the company providing this cashless system and has already franchised over 20 major nations. This system was created in 1993 by London bankers Tim Jones and Graham Higgins of NATWEST/COUTTS, the personal bank of BRITAIN'S ROYAL FAMILY. The system is based on
SMARTCARD technology which employs microchips concealed in a plastic card which stores electronic cash, identification, and other information. All transaction systems are being made secure by adopting
SET protocols ( Secure Electronic Transaction ) and will display the SET MARK.

MON-DEX - A compound of the words MONETARY & DEXTER. Webster's Dictionary Encyclopedia Edition defines these words as:
monetary - pertaining to money
dexter - belonging to or located on the right hand
SET - the Egyptian god of evil or Satan

Along with the cards you may use a PET device ( Personal Electronic Transfer ) . This wallet sized calculator-like device allows you to conduct personal currency exchanges with other card holders. The cards
also works with the NORTEL/BELL VISTA 360 phone, MILLENNIUM pay phones, ATMs, your PC, the INTERNET, and online businesses and institutions.

This cashless system has been tested extensively in the city of Guelph, in Ontario, Canada, and in the U.K. and U.S. All Canadian banks have signed up to MONDEX and will be promoting it soon. Plans are to have it in widespread use by 1998. The CIBC ( Canadian International Bank of Commerce ) has even set up a model cashless branch inside NORTEL in Brampton, Ontario.

Over 250 corporations in 20 countries are involved in bringing MONDEX to the world and many nations have already been franchised to use it; the U.K., Canada, U.S.A., Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Macau, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, India, Taiwan, Sri Lanka Costa Rica, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador and Belize. The European Union is expected to adopt the MONDEX system as their unified currency solution. Other SMARTCARD systems are quickly being put aside in favor of MONDEX, especially since MASTERCARD bought a 51% stake in the company. NATWEST will still maintain directorship in it's development and implementation.

"This is the final stage in becoming a global reality," said Robin O'Kelly of MONDEX International. "With MasterCard's backing, there's nothing to stop MONDEX now from becoming the global standard."

Eventually the idea of carrying a card will become obsolete as people soon discover that it has its security limitations-namely, being susceptible to damage, loss and theft. The final solution will be to have the microchip simply placed inside the human body as they do now with microchip pet identification systems. INFOPET is one of several companies that provide a syringe gun implantable bio-chip that is injected under the skin of an animal. The chip can be read by a scanner and the code identifying the owner and pet will bring up a file on a computer. The system boasts that it can track over 1 billion pets by satellites and cellular towers.

MOTOROLA, who produce the microchips for the MONDEX SMARTCARD, has developed several human implantable bio-chips. The BT952000 chip was engineered by Dr. Carl Sanders who was directed in seventeen NEW WORLD ORDER meetings to develop the device for global use in humans for economic and identification purposes.

The bio-chip measures 7mm long and .75mm in width, about the size of a grain of rice. It contains a transponder and a rechargeable lithium battery. The battery is charged by a thermo-couple circuit that
produces voltage from fluctuations in body temperature. They spent over 1.5 million dollars studying where to place the chip in the human body. They found only 2 suitable and efficient places - the FOREHEAD
just under the hairline, and the back of the hand, specifically the RIGHT HAND.

"And he causes all, the small and the great, and the rich and the poor, and the free men and the slaves, to be given a mark in their right hand, or in their forehead, and he provides that no one should be able to buy or sell, except the one who has the mark, either the name of the beast, or the number of his name." Revelation 13:16

Dr. Sanders was against the use of the lithium battery because it was known that if it were to break the lithium would cause a GRIEVOUS BOIL or sore and cause much agony to the host.

"And the first went and poured out his vial upon the earth, and there fell a noisome and grievous sore upon the men which had the mark of the beast, and upon them which worshiped his image." Revelation 16:2

After Dr. Sanders left the project he was introduced to the prophetic scriptures in the Bible concerning the "mark of the beast". He then converted to the Christian faith and now conducts seminars on this topic. Dr. Sanders developed patented medical, surveillance, and security equipment for the FBI, CIA, IRS, IBM, GE, Honeywell, and Teledyne. He has also received the President's and Governor's award for design excellence.

The Greek word in the Bible for the mark is charagma, which means a scratch, or etching, stamp, insignia, or mark of servitude. The number 666 is the Greek phrase Chi Xi Stigma, meaning to stick or prick, a
mark incised or punched for the recognition of ownership.

The industry name for the advanced smart card developed by GEMPLUS and the U.S. DOD ( Department of Defense ) is the MARC ( Multi-technology Automated Reader Card ) . The code name for it's development was `TESSERA'. A tessera was the Roman insignia of ownership placed on their slaves which if removed would result in the slave being branded with a mark. In November 1996 an agreement was made by which GEMPLUS will supply smartcards for the global implementation of MONDEX.

AT&T/Lucent Technologies purchased the franchise for MONDEX USA. Their logo is the symbol of the Solar Serpent or RED DRAGON who is Satan.

LUCENT is compounded from LUCIFER - ENTERPRISES. They seem to be quite flagrant in naming their products STYX ( a river in Hades ) , JANUS ( 2 faced god ) and INFERNO promoted with a quote from `The Inferno', a story about LUCIFER in the bowels of hell. The "ring of fire" is the ancient Pantheon. This company deliberately chose to move their new offices into 666 Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.

"Day was departing, and the darkening air called all earth's creatures to their evening quiet while I alone was preparing as though for war" - The Inferno, Dante, Canto II

One of their proudest achievements is TTS ( Text To Speech ) in which they give the human-like quality of speech to lifeless technology. This only tends to remind one of the apocalyptic scriptures.

"And it was given to him to give breath to the image of the beast, that the image of the beast might even speak..." Revelation 13:15

Since it is not practical to place a microchip in every product that is to ever be bought and sold a UPC BARCODE does the job nicely. What most people don't realize is that this is the "mark of the beast" for
the products we buy, use and dispose of everyday. Every UPC BARCODE contains the numbers 666. You will find one of two versions of the mark. The most common has 10 numbers divided into two parts. The other will have 6 numbers. In both versions there are 3 unidentified bars.
Those bars are 6, 6, and 6. These are called guard bars, they tell the scanner when to start, divide, and stop the reading.

"Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast for the number is that of a man, and his number is 666." Revelation 13:18
Mondex International Newsroom
Press Release 13 May, 1998

Under Embargo until 0001 ( GMT ) Wednesday, 13th May Mondex Israel Launch Pilot in Rehovot Area
Rehovot, Israel, 13th May 1998: mondex Israel has today announced the launch of a pilot of Mondex Electronic Cash in the town of Rehovot, situated 30km South of TelAviv. This pilot is the 23rd Implementation of Mondex to date and reflects the continuing progress of Mondex around the world. Mondex Israel, jointly owned by Discount Investment Corporation and the Paz Group, has initiated this activity as the first phase in the wider commercial roll-out of Mondex in Israel.

Mondex is the most `cash-like' of the electronic cash smartcards currently being introduced around the world as a more Efficient alternative to physical cash; for use in everyday shopping, and as a future payment mechanism in a wide variety of areas such as the Internet and `pay-per-view' TV.

Mondex is the only electronic cash system in The world to operate with a single global technology allowing for cross-country payments. Unlike rival electronic cash schemes, Mondex ensures that there is
Interoperability between cards and devices From one country to another provided by consistent technology in each Mondex implementation.

Mondex Electronic Cash is currently being used in 22 implementations around the world including Hong Kong, the UK, US, Canada, Australia, Costa Rica and the Philippines and Mondex franchises have
been established in over 50 countries worldwide.

Rehovot is a mid-sized city in the centre of Israel, with a population of around 85,000 nd with 1,000 retailers. Rehovot is best known as the site of the Weizmann Institute of Science, a world-famous advanced science learning and research centre, which has a student population of 5,000.

The pilot will be officially launched by Yaakov Sendler, the Mayor of Rehovot, who Will make the first Mondex transaction in Israel.

Managing Director of Discount Investments and Chairman of the Board of Mondex Israel, Dov Tadmor, said, "Mondex is an important and Integral part of Discount Investment's strategy to engage in financial
and technological services."

Yitzhak Levy, CEO of Mondex Israel, said, "Rehovot was chosen as the location for the pilot, as we identified some 1,000 businesses in this area where a large part of the turnover is paid for in cash."
"Rehovot is a town that combines shopping malls and private businesses as well as a Young adult population, including leading academic institutes on one hand and senior citizens on the other."

The pilot phase will be accompanied by a multimedia advertising campaign produced by the Kesher Barel agency, using the strapline "Mondex - Israel's Electronic Cash". Michael Keegan, Chief Executive
Officer of Mondex International, based in London, said, "Israel is an important and innovative market, leading the way in the adoption of new technology and this is reflected in Mondex Israel's rapid time to
market and commitment to the Mondex technology".

Richard Phillimore, senior vice president of Chip Card Business, MasterCard International, "MasterCard International acquired a 51% stake in Mondex International because Mondex is the only truly global
electronic cash system. Mondex provides the interoperability that MasterCard members and cardholders around the world have come to expect from all OF our trusted payment brands. The MasterCard Complete Chip Solution ensures that an issuer's one-time investment in chip delivers sustainable competitive advantage."

Notes to Editors - Mondex International
Mondex International is a subsidiary of MasterCard International. MasterCard International acquired 51% of the company in February 1997 and has decided to adopt Mondex International's technology as its future
choice of strategic chip platform.

Mondex International grants licences to franchisees to allow them to exploit the Mondex electronic cash technology in a given territory. Since its incorporation in 1996, Mondex has issued 30 licences across 6 continents. Mondex is being developed by franchisees in over 50 countries.

Mondex is the only electronic cash system in the world to operate with a single global technology allowing for cross-border payments. It allows up to five different currencies to be carried on the card at any
one time in separate electronic pockets.

Mondex is currently being used in 23 implementations around the world including Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Costa Rica, Philippines, UK and USA.

The following companies are shareholders ( directly or indirectly ) in Mondex International: MasterCard International, National Westminster Bank, Ulster Bank, Midland Bank, Scotiabank, Credit Union Central of Canada, The National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Canada Trust, Le Mouvement des caisses Desjardins, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, The
Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Wells Fargo, Citibank UCS, Chase Manhattan, First Chicago NDB, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, Westpac Banking Corporation ( Australia ) , ANZ Banking Group ( New Zealand ) , Bank of New Zealand, Countrywide Banking Corporation, The National Bank of New Zealand, ASB Bank and Westpac Banking Corporation ( New Zealand ) .
Further Information regarding Mondex is available on their web site at:

MasterCard International
MasterCard International has the most comprehensive portfolio of payment brands in the world. With 23,000 member financial institutions, serving consumers in 220 countries and territories, MasterCard is the industry leader in quality and innovation.

More than 600 million MasterCard, Maestro, Cirrus and Mondex cards are accepted at more than 15 million locations worldwide. In 1997, gross dollar volume exceeded $600 billion. MasterCard can be reached through its World Wide Web site at

Mondex Israel
Mondex Israel is jointly owned by Discount Investment Corporation ( DIC ) , part of the IDB Holding Group and Paz Oil Co. The franchise gives DIC and Paz the exclusive rights to commercially develop Mondex electronic cash for Israeli residents.

Discount Investment Corporation
Discount Investment Corporation, of the IDB Holding Group, invests and participates in the initiation, development and direction of a diverse portfolio of business enterprises.

Since its establishment in 1961, the Company has played a significant role in the development of the Israeli economy through its investments in local companies in all sectors of the economy, many of whom are market leaders both locally and internationally.

Investment policy focuses on investments that have long-term growth and profit potential. This policy includes further development in sectors that exhibit particularly high profit potential, such as the export-oriented high-tech industrial and communications sectors and non-banking financial services.

The Company's investment strategy includes privately held and publicly traded companies, and encourages joint investments with local and international strategic partners.

Discount Investment Corporation's activities include investments in cellular telephone
services, cable TV, Internet services, supermarket chains, petrol stations, and parking facilities; which are largely cash oriented and therefore natural targets for the use of electronic cash and membership or
loyalty programmes.

Further information on Discount Investment Corporation may be obtained through its web site at

Paz Oil Co. Ltd
Paz is Israel's largest supplier of refined petroleum products. Paz was founded in 1922 as the Anglo-Asiatic Petroleum company and was subsequently renamed the Shell Company of Palestine, before becoming the Paz Oil Company Ltd in 1958.

Paz supplies about 40% of local petroleum consumption. Of the more than 600 filling stations, 210 are Paz stations.

The three largest subsidiaries are Paz Lubricants and Oils, an extensive manufacturing complex for lubricants and solvents; Pazkar Ltd, a well established manufacturer of bituminous products,
waterproofing membranes, coatings and adhesives; and Pazgas Ltd which supplies L.P.C. to over 500,000 customers.

For further information please contact: Robin O'Kelly, Mondex International Ltd., Tel: +44 ( 0 ) 171 557 5036
Subject: The Cashless Society in New Zealand
New Zealand NEWS bulletin:

Last night I recorded an interesting VIDEO Clip from TV ONE NEWS about the introduction of the CASHLESS SOCIETY within 12 months, starting in Wellington, New Zealand.

If you are expecting the MARK of the Beast to arrive soon you will be very interested. It may all be starting in NZ ! The video can be downloaded from the 'Smartcard' directory of my FTP server:

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:18 - ID#353204)
I would have left it at "[a bit] long"
Now that's the kind of thing I'm talking about that gets me cantankerous.
Sharefin, Sharefin, Sharefin. Are you John K. in disguise?

Anyhow, I found a dictionary and the word I was looking for
was 'susurration' ( a whispering ) , but 'sibilant' is equally appropriate.

Also, partial credit and a T-shirt to the contributor of "no one
has done it yet". The answer that I was looking for ( the one in "Russia
House" ) was: About halfway.

Finally, bad news comes in threes.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:22 - ID#28939)
some technical thoughts, COT report shows commercials loading the guns

The June 14th low for gold so far is either a wave ( b ) low which I have suggested in past postings or it could also be a truncated 5th wave ending the entire move down from the February 96 high. In either case the next move is up. The intervention of the 14th-15th broke the downtrend from the April high and can be labelled as wave 1. The last month of meandering prices has shown a nice "abc" which is almost complete for a wave 2.

Wave 3 is coming soon. What will be the trigger event? It could be a surprise move in t-bonds where the yield breaks through 5.82%. That would confirm that the high is in for the bonds. The commercials have the highest short position on bonds in years at a time when the speculators are loading up looking for 4.5%. I'll go with the smart money. ( see John Murphy's discussion on pages 200-208 of his major text )

It could also be a currency issue. I think AG knows the dollar has to come down but is afraid of it happening too fast.

I have said before that gold --- Yen --- bonds are joined at the hip.

Remember July of 97, it turned out to be a low for gold well into early October.

The commercials are loaded up on copper as well and the price seems to have broken out above the last downtrend. A number of the commodity stocks that I follow are showing very strong positive divergences with the recent lows of June-July ( Inco for example )

The spring is wound ever so tight.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:28 - ID#431263)
Please keep us informed about current events in Jakarta this evening--most interested to know about the state of affairs you referred to in your post to us last evening! Ciao!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:30 - ID#317193)
Japan, Russia AND....behind door #3, not US

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:31 - ID#412286)
If the mkt goes then dollar confidence goes. The US is stk mkt dependent, if it goes Indonesia will look like a safe haven. Debacle or loss of confidence in the US will be great for gold.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:34 - ID#174103)
Cantankerous Old HL Mencken on the '29 crash, 1931
For a number of years past, the American people have been swooning in a purple light, listening to the sweet, voluptuous music of harps and psalteries. All sorts of quacks have operated upon them, tickling them under the gills, blowing perfumed smoke into their ears, and dancing gaudy jumping-jacks in front of them. Any fraud with an oily tongue and a hopeful air could get a hearing. They hearkened to politicians who told them all the ancient laws of economics had been repealed, to metaphysicians who proved that a dollar was made up of 200 or 300 cents, and to theologians who assured them ex cathedra that they were God's Chosen People, who could not come to grief. The Golden Age, it appeared, had dawned.

In all this there was little save what Al Smith called baloney, but it was hard to convince any true American of the fact. I remember well when certain cynical bankers began to hint that stocks selling on a 2% basis were not good buys: their reward was to be accused of trying to start a bear movement and grab the stocks for themselves. Car conductors and police seargeants pulled their money out of the building associations, and put it into securities yielding half as much as a savings account. In Washington, Dr. Hoover flapped his glistening wings, moving majestically towards the White House. Arthur Brisbane warned against selling America short. The radio belched optimism. Europe, one heard, was dying of envy. We were actually inhabiting the New Jerusalem, with walls of alabaster and pavements of gold.

What became of the cynics in those days I don't know: probably hiding in cellars. One heard from them only rarely, and no one would listen to them. But when the blow-off came their prognostications were borne out to the letter. Out of the purple haze emerged a file of dark green facts, and at once it appeared that they were precisely of the cut and nature envisioned by the cynics aforetime. The laws of economics, it turned out, were still in full blast. The contents of the dollar stopped at 100 cents. And God had forgotten His new Chosen People as completely and disastrously as He forgot His old ones in A.D. 70.

From Minority Report

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:37 - ID#434298)
As much as I hate it
this "cashless" system has the potential to put Gold's back on the mat for a decade or so with a price down where Silver is. Or is Silver going to come up to meet it somewhere in the middle?
Come on 10-grainer - we have to get demand up?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 20:54 - ID#43460)
Grizz, from whence do you speak?
or durst thou spake? I recall there was a story about the first European traders who landed in the orient. Seems they ran into some folks who were willing to swap even, gold for silver. Didn't last long. IMHO

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:03 - ID#431263)
Nice post, mate! Thanks for the Lihir prospectus! Would love to see a picture of your home before you sell it! Can you see the Great Barrier Reef from your window? Sounds like the kind of home I'd like to live in when my golden ship comes in and permits me to retire.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:05 - ID#260389)
Assuming all those things are true what are your projections for the next 90 days for gold, the XAU, etc? How high do we go?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:09 - ID#43349)
Well, how did you like that little ride on silver? Ready for another one?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:24 - ID#413109)
May I take a crack at replying to
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 19:55
Bill2j ( ( A question ) ) ID#259400:
I am not an optimistic on the price of gold. I can see 200 gold a lot easier than I can 300 gold. My
question involves the frequent references to commodities going up. If the stock market tanks and the
economy goes down the toilet it would seem to me commodities would go down in value. In a severe
recession every endeavor that contributes to the GDP would fall off. With less industrial activity the
consumption of commodities would fall. How can falling demand for these items cause them to go up?
With a long term perspective in mind, gold and PMs should go up, while
stock markets, world wide, those that are still making new highs, are
bound to go down. What would cause this change, is the financial mess
which dates back to the period after WW2, which created credit for a
desperate world, and allowed growth to get out of hand. This little
bill, with the US$ at the base, has to be paid by future generations.

However replying to your specific question of commodities going up,
while everything else goes down due to lack of demand, please consider
the other side of that coin, called supply. If, and when, supply diminishes considerably due to a variety of forces yet not foreseen,
draught, famine, overpopulation, y2k related problems, etc, then the
prices or let's call them values, of commodities in demand should go
up. When many are bidding for grains, and the supply diminishes, prices
go up. The long term charts, for many commodities are very low, and
many making new lows all the time, and when this cycle changes direction,
it should be up.
Peoples perception of money ( paper ) could also change, and that could be
very bullish for GOLD.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:32 - ID#43349)
SEATTLE ( Reuters ) - Internet phenom Inc.Wednesday said its sales surged more than 300 percent in the latest quarter, beating estimates and leading to a smaller-than-expected loss.

Doesn't that mean that after all of that they are STILL losing money?
What does that do for p/e?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:36 - ID#412286)
You have to look at gold in relation to the amount of dollars and fiat currency created. This gives you an idea of the potential demand. Think of it this way USE the Bill Gates model: He through the dollar system is worth 20% of all official gold reserves ( probably more when one considers leasing activity ) and 9 % of all gold ever produced..Hello. Gates is small potatoes compared to what has been created with all the other currencies. The point is that one person has reached this level and in the scheme of things while magnificent his wealth is miniscule in relation to the financial ponzi scheme.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:37 - ID#287129)
Thanks to gold and gold stocks, I may not ever be able to retire... unless gold and gold stocks turn skyward sooner rather than later. I made the right decisions for the right reasons TOO ( @#$%^%&* ) SOON.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:44 - ID#235295)
@overnight markets
At this hour...August gold inching up at 295.1. Yen is making headway vis-a-vis the Dollar.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:47 - ID#431263)
I feel your pain! I've had to delay my desire for instant gratification as well---BUT!!! I assume you have a good job, discretionary income and a burning desire to succeed--right? So do what I'm doing--KEEP ON BUYING!!!
DOLLAR-COST AVERAGE ALL THE WAY TO OBLIVION ( which I firmly believe is $280 ) ! Don't judge your investment into gold until you HAVE to retire! By buying more all the way down you will buy more gold with less money and when gold finally makes the turn ( which I firmly believe it already has ) you will reap the financial reward you so desperately desire and deserve for your foresight, wisdom and dogged determinism! Stay the course! Follow the plan! Don't second guess your decision! And reap the reward of
purchasing the only thing that is a real asset and store of value across the millennia--GOLD! Keep the faith, Skip!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:47 - ID#45173)
Gollum re:
Buffet will flunk me for this but... Internet stock valuations are about future earnings on a market share of apparently infinite size. Big costs and no revenues to start, wierdly big revenues and perversely low costs in the end. Lock in your customer base, squeeze out competition, then start to charge your customers who are hooked on your service and have no place else to go. Watch out when player ( s ) with deep pockets ( tip: MS ) use you as "market research" and take your customers away by emulating your doo dah with a technological twist that you can't beat because of your biz model/technology baggage.

Thanks for the tip on silver a few months back. I was gonna buy gold. Glad I didn't.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:54 - ID#431263)
And don't forget--unlike the dollar, gold will always hold its value into whatever currency takes the dollar's place in the future!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:55 - ID#431263)

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:56 - ID#413109)
Interesting wording by AG
in the last part of the report by Yahoo-
""I think that the IMF has done as much as it thought it understood it could do," Greenspan said. "I don't know what
alternative policies could have been implemented which could have significantly altered the pattern that emerged once the
vicious cycle began to accumulate to the degree that it did."

Some of us could advise on policies that could have been implemented
many moons ago, and might still be applicable, no?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 21:57 - ID#431263)
CNN not CNBC! Also a segment scheduled on bankruptcy!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:02 - ID#187109)
Welcome back buddy. Now git to it you ole HepRatCatatat. I is waitin'........and throwin' petals. And I will tell Teddo of your reappearance and print your wise words and ship them to him.
BRING IT ON! sit back and enjoy the show........uh huh...
?ohmy! ( $ )

just don't sling too much cat-poop.... ;- )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:08 - ID#147201)
Steve in TO re quakes
Sorry to be so late on this, but I've been hunkered down on details. You 7/18 @ 18:52 was a remarkable observation- we need more of these!! The Stanford Prof would probably like to see this. He is the source of the 1 +/- Hz and has equipment in 7 locations waiting on more info. Don't have the locations at the moment, but maybe I can get a map. All of this is, among other things, based on the electrification phenomena of rocks. Not only piezo, but whatever pressure and friction can induce. It's a long story and maybe better on email.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:09 - ID#57232)
Gold is bottoming
Skip: Gold has gone down for two years, so it will take a while to turn about. Mike Stewart, one of our most methodical, logical Kitco posters, is now 30% or so long. Bill Buckler -- last I recall -- is just about to call the turnaround in the US dollar. Already called it in a number of foreign currencies, I think. John Disney, the expert in South African gold, just called a gold bull there.
Look at the heat wave in midamerica, devastating Texas, and now moving toware the East. If the US economy remains strong, but food supplies dwindle, the commodity prices will rise, signalling that a 9 year or so downtrend in prices is over. Just a matter of time. Just keep at most of your powder dry.
We will all know the gold bull when it comes -- the gold markets have been very quiet of late -- and could turn either way, IMHO. Either test the lows with another curremcy meltdown and Gold firesale, or comeabout.
I doubled my money in the 1993 gold rally, and I knew nothing at that time. It will not be hard for you either when things really start to move. Just don't jump in all the way -- just yet. RJ and Oldman will let us know when things really start to move. Until then, buy the bottoms -- roughly whenever gold reaches or goes below $280/oz.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:10 - ID#45173)
deflation haiku
The market crashes
unemployment rises and
cash becomes precious

Tomorrow's prices
are less than today's prices
We all wait to buy


(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:13 - ID#57232)
All: The crbspot has a 9 or so year cycle, the downwave is then about 4 1/2 or so years, not 9 years. Sorry. Bottoming in 6 months or so.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:22 - ID#7568)

It's happening just the way it was drawn up on the chalkboard. Aron takes delivery of the Comex warrants. Then a nifty little head fake selling some short term calls. Under the cover of darkness they go and buy a load of OTC options and then all of a sudden a new player, Republic ( gatekeeper of the warehouses ) comes in and squeezes the physical market by borrowing a whole load. Suddenly, the warehouse stocks start leaving the warehouse. On relatively light volume the open interest advances. The big shorts are still short but must be sweating copious quantities.

Perhaps tommorrow will be a quiet day, with a little retracement, followed by a late Friday afternoon attack.

More likely the beast is already in full snort and there is just no stopping him. Remember back in February the market just went to where it went with no rest. Those waiting for a pullback to enter bought the start of a vicious multimonth decline. If one is on the sidelines its very hard to jump into the fray. The fear is palpable.

From what I hear many of the those that bought the first rally are just watching this one. When will the lure of the silver muse draw them in?

One set of markets that may be signaling a sea change are the base metals. With very little fanfare copper has jumped from of low of 71 cents to 78-9 in very short order. The other LME's have also put in a good showing.

The Korean's continue to loosen the ties of the IMF straightjacket and magically the currency is getting stronger. Perhaps a small virtuous cycle has begun. Of all the SE Asian economies, Korea's is really the only one the matters from an global economic perspective. ( Please do not read this as disdain or disregard for the suffering of the people throughout the region. It is just a comment on the relative size of their economy ) .

An interesting thing about todays action in the currencies is that the DM seemed to be inversely correlated with the action in the Dow. Perhaps it will be that if the stock market begins to falter, some foreign cash will be repatriated. Imagine a cycle where the stocks decline, and the dollar declines and Fed won't raise rates for fear of causing a collapse. Import deflation turns to import inflation and the Fed is truly stuck. Shades of F*.


Use your third life ( or is it fourth? ) well. Glad to see you mewing. Makes the world a more interesting place.

Bon Soir.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:25 - ID#57232)
Thoughts about the commodity price index and gold
All: If you look at a long term series of gold bullion prices and commodity prices, you will see that gold was generally the leader during times perceived as inflationary. At other less inflationary times, you see that the commodity price index leads. This seems to be the more current trend. Gold has been so politicized that being bullish in commodities as a hedge against inflation is far more respectable. Some individuals have gone so far as to say that with modern derivatives and commodities, there is no need for gold. My spin on this is that it just means that you watch the commodity spot, not the gold spot for the first whiff of inflation, IMHO. When the time is right, gold will return to the limelight. Just need to be patient, and remember which horse to watch. Hard to watch gold when it is barely moving. But -- it is easy to see the plummeting commodity price index -- galloping along. Can't keep going down forever.
As they say, patience is a virtue.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:25 - ID#272379)
"This little bill with the US$...Reify 21:24 Post
If you will go back through history, you'll find almost without exception that governments when the debt bubble explodes they simply don't pay..i.e. they just default and leave the lender holding the bag. That is a real possibility in the present senario and could very well be the future for T-Bills, Bonds, and Notes. This has happened in Germany, France and many more. They throw their hands up and go oops! And there's no accountability!!!!!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:27 - ID#147201)
Squirrel re 10 grain coin
Grains are definitely preferable to grams. I think there is a niche for this, but the public has to be educated. Educated either by a corp sponsor or merchandising. Merchandising could run up to a half a mill. I appreciate your comments because this is not a one man deal. The capacity of the public to deal in grains may be forced upon them. I don't think this coin is the only answer, but with a public as large as the US, it may, under the possible stress of "bad times" come into use. It did in Calif about 1850 to 1860. To launch it would take some real advertising money, so any sponsors anybody can think of would be appreciated. I have no trouble contacting them. I have been thrown out of better places.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:29 - ID#210253)
Re: JTF , Golden Cheesehead, EJ
With all due respect:

JTF: always well thoughtout, but speculative.

GoldenCheesehead: Entertainment coupled with bravado, but speculative.


No positive action in AU price until oil makes a trend turn in an upward direction and lights up inflation. Gold @ $275 before $305 within this quarter. Fire at will!



(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:33 - ID#7568)

Many months back I lost a wink to EB on a similar proposition. Perhaps you will give me the opportunity to lose again.

A one ounce US golden eagle say 310 before 279. Care to play?

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:33 - ID#270253)
When the greats have been wrong, just wait!
I have a list of favourite long term investors. They are generally icons in their fields. Examples are John Templeton, Peter Cundill, Larry Tisch and Warren Buffett.

I wait until they have a rotten couple of years. Generally everyone says that they can't do it anymore. That is when I like them the best.

Peter Cundill's funds have been asleep for a long time. He is a superb value investor with the guts to be wrong while he waits. He is long Japan and Singapore stocks. long silver and short the S&P.

Larry Tisch ( via Loews ) is so short the S&P that they had to report extraordinary losses during the last quarter.

Somebody told me the Warren Buffett is long silver. ( Ha Ha )

John Templeton is telling everyone that markets do have periods of decline.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:36 - ID#147201)
Grizz re 10 grains
You're right! After getting as far as possible on this idea, I figured that the forum could help. More pros than cons, but I would hate to jump on something with less than adequate info and get chopped expensively. I haven't got to the silver yet, but it should follow if gold works. As I said to Squirrel, I don't think this is the big answer, but it should have a good niche when the $ crumbles. Please keep ideas coming. Thanx Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:37 - ID#57232)
How about Japan?
D.A.: Thanks for the insight about the traders in the Silver market. I have dutifully held on to my PAASF when better half has been asking me how much money I made -- I have been evasive. Looks like it is waking up again.
You made an interesting comment about South Korea. How about Japan? Several here think that the leader about to be is the weakest of the three candidates, and will accomplish nothing. We have also seen a very negative article about Japan in US News and World Report -- it suggests very strongly that Japan is literally awash in debt. If so, they may conceivably owe as much as we do -- so much for the world's biggest creditor. If all of the above is true for Japan, they may go down for the count.
On the other hand, as an investor I have noticed that the worst news always seems to come out at the bottom, or slightly after the bottom. So, I don't know what to think about Japan.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:38 - ID#218220)
Mike Stewart
Someone once said that markets will go up until they don't go up anymore, then they will go down, until they stop going down and then they will go up! ........Sounds reasonable to me.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:41 - ID#270253)
I like that one. It's like the time someone pestered me about the reason that stock go up. I told them that there were more buyer than seller. Simple as that. They were not impressed.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:43 - ID#7568)

There is no doubt the Japanese have a huge public debt, larger than the US on a debt/GDP ratio. There are however two mitigating factors. First, the average coupon is probably half or less of what it is in the US. The second, is that the paper is held internally. Not a lot of US citizens are long JGB's.

Sorry, I can't respond in more depth, the little woman calls. If I get some time tomorrow I'll try to organize some thoughts about Japan.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:43 - ID#411440)
@ Sig__A: On all my charts, oil prices rise AFTER the POG.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:43 - ID#45173)

Mike Stewart
(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:44 - ID#270253)
Bad typing
I checked it out and the "S" key works on my keyboard. I apologize for my bad typing habits.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:44 - ID#218220)
JTF...... The news is almost always the worst at the turning points.
After a long decline the dire news is that it is only going to get worse, or conversly that we are in a new favorable enviorment and that is why prices are where they are, and will continue to do well. Sound familiar?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:45 - ID#7568)

I'm going to bed but the betting window remains open until 9:00 AM tommorrow. If you're in, let me know. Good luck.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:48 - ID#57232)
sig: I'll go for an Oil rise as a sign -- we've had some false starts. Do you have any idea where I can get historical JOC spot commodity index prices -- preferably daily? A number of individuals think a turnaround in the JOC spot is more reliable than several other indices, such as cry0. I have not been able to find the commodity research bureau spot index, either. Have Telescan -- has extensive historical data -- but no JOC.
Thanks in advance -- always great to hear from one of the more seasoned Kitco posters.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:48 - ID#45173)
kapex: Been waiting for months for S. Korea to botton out
so I can buy into index. So far waiting has proved worthwhile, as their market drifts toward zero.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:49 - ID#43349)
How have your world wanderings been going?

Market valuations once upon a time had something to do with earnings, but today they have more to do with dreams and imaginings.

We all know the internet is a coming thing and so we think of when personal computers were a coming thing, or when automobiles were a coming thing. We dream of what would have happend if we had bought Microsoft or General Motors. We forget Acorn and Commodore and Studebaker and Stutz and Packard and Hudson.

It's easy to dream when you have a little cash to spare. It's harder to dream when you're standing on a streetcorner trying to sell apples.

Hang on to your silver, at least until Friday noon.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:50 - ID#250205)
Moody to downgrade Japan government debt! $ up on headlines
The whole world is coming unglued and Europe appears to be next. Maybe stocks will crash as Armstrong forecast starting July 20th, 1998, but he also see surge in dollar & US bonds. If Euro is still questionable, Russia goes into chaos, with US having least exposure to Russia being 10%, and Germany 40%+, Dmark is a sale. Now Moddys wants to downgrade Japanese government debt, I am afriad fiat or not, the $ is the only game in town for big institutional money. Seems a lot of people are praying for stock crash, dollar crash and euro rally so metals will rise, but the trends may not play out that way. Flight to quality issue always takes place if stocks crash. If bonds make new highs, its a big breakout from where I sit. We may not get everything we wish for & it sure as hell ain't gona be as easy as many propose. If it were, everyone would be billionares. Looks like we could have another year of utter confusion. Not sure what that means to metals. Armstrong says 2 to 3 month reaction to upside in metals is likely but another failed rally calls for new lows next year before change in trend comes in 2000.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:50 - ID#162241)
The Scramble for big returns.....CNBC Ads
The signals of the market end are all over the place, and if you were tuned to CNBC tonight, you would have caught some of it.

It's the prelude to the market top, and you can sense the panic of the fund managers in the pitch. Three ads in a row pushing investment funds; the first promo espousing the virtues of the big name American investment houses and how they were safer than the ones you are currently using; the second pitching a better way to deal with your K401 funds then what is offered by the same named firms as in the first ad; and the last, but most telling, a pitch selling 40%, 50% ..100% returns in just 3 months using the international currency upheaval now in place as the investment strategy. Move your money out of US funds and cash in the foreign currency as they catch a falling US dollar!

Now thats the signal ... like the used car dealers pushing their left over inventory on the late night show, that this business is in its last glorious moments and the next fire sale is going to be of unmitigated proportions.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:51 - ID#210253)

I'll go a 1/2 with a NY Spot close at $310 before the 10/1/98.

Keep in contact!


(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:51 - ID#218220)
JTF,ALL..........Does anyone remember the Time Magazine cover in 1980?
It's cover read "The Death of Equities"!!!!!!! Gee Where would we be without the Media to guide us?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:52 - ID#45173)
kapex: keep in mind the Japanese hide the bad
Under the rock there are the worms; under the worms are the dead. Read the Globe article I just posted. Japanese and Germans feeling bad about themselves does not portend long-term prospects of peace.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:53 - ID#207145)
The mad run for Oils was defensive in nature. Also, fundamentals usually start to inprove around now. Note the drillers stopped hemmoraging.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:54 - ID#30116)
Fed Head Greenspan must be a fundamental invester.... :- ) )

JTF -- You find these web cameras in the most amazing places. Try Glacier National park at

The sun will be up for another hour or so... Now, what we need.... is one of these things in the White House. :- ) )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:54 - ID#290172)
Too Big to Close: A New Approach for Japan's Financial Crisis

[Paragraph #2]
"In this article I will consider how these abnormal phenomena adversely affect the economy as a whole. Ordinarily, macroeconomic financial theory focuses on the money supply, which appears on the liability side of banks' balance sheets. But even more important is bank credit, which appears on the asset side; this is the main issue now. When the money supply and the volume of bank credit start to diverge, the traditional approach of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply loses effectiveness. Bank credit corresponds to the economy's arteries and the money supply to its veins. This can be seen, I believe, from the experience of the Great Depression that struck the United States in the early 1930s. In March 1933, when the U.S. economy was at its worst--gross national product having shrunk by half in nominal terms--the federal government's Reconstruction Finance Company started to buy preferred shares in banks. The Japanese government is now planning a similar move. What I will suggest here is that in order to maintain the economic arteries, the government adopt a policy aimed at keeping big banks in business, not precisely because they are "too big to fail" ( the traditional formulation ) but because, as I shall explain, they are "too big to close."

An interesting read.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:57 - ID#57232)
Sining off before my 'real boss' gets after me
D.A.: Thanks. By the way -- had a thought earlier in the day -- goes like this
-- If AG gets what he wants, we will have inflation, the markets and the dollar will go into a bear phase, or stagnate, and real estate will rise along with gold.
-- If he fails, the markets will crash, the dollar will crash, and the economy crashes. In the latter, investing in gold is much more difficult, especially equities. But -- after the crash, gold will shine as the cost of production plummets, and people move to hard currencies.

I'll really get worried if AG retires before the US markets crash.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 22:59 - ID#431263)
Jackson--OUT! Jordan --OUT! Pippen--OUT! Rodman--OUT! BULLS--OUT! Hepcat--IN! THE END OF AN ERA! THE END OF THE BULL MARKET! Time for a change! Time for GOLD!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:02 - ID#210127)
Boy the Yen just took a nosedive

on that news...silver up 5 cents

what next??

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:02 - ID#147201)
D.A. your 22:22
This fits the story on COT/POG and same silver. Also COT/Tsy is showing a tendency for rates to rise. You must have a hellofa perspective to deal daily and see the overall outcome. I used to be able a while back, but then I would fall of the ledge. Many thanx for these comments, Charlie

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:06 - ID#210253)
Rhode: Gold is a metal with no predictive powers. My only explanation is your charts are coincidental. Please explain the theory.

JTF, I'm going to bed....I'll give it some thought.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:09 - ID#43349)
So, if US is world's biggest debtor and Japan concievably owes as much as we do, who is the biggest creditor ( s ) ?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:10 - ID#218220)
JTF....I got news for you, the Crash is not far off!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:11 - ID#431263)
THE FED! They're the source of all fiat paper debt wealth! Honk Kong plunging tonight--no confidence vote in Japanese election Friday!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:11 - ID#430212)
gold stocks.....

Is there NO end to the decline in gold mining stocks? Will there be no $325+ gold anymore? How much longer can one be patient for a turnaround in the gold sector? Questions....Questions, and NO for sure answers!!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:15 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Just in the US so far and nothing much worth noting
Without exception everyone I ask about the stock market expects it to crash. Yet without exception they tell me in their next breath that they are still put their money in it via 401K and Mutual Funds. Perhaps the maturing West is learning something from the mature East after all: fatalism. Most people I meet are aware of gold and silver as a hedge against a crash, but none have bought any. They see themselves as contributory "investors" in corporations, fueling a brave information technology revolution expansion, a US-led expansion. There's definately some nationalism in there. Wasn't that the prevailing view in the late 1920s? That we had it right and eveyone else had it wrong? No, they will not buy PMs. Gold and silver are for hoarding misers, non-contributors, non-players, they think but do not say.

I give them my most impassioned Kicto rap and they are keenly attentive. When I'm done... "So, what will cause the market crash," they ask, expecting that it will and that I somehow know how and why. "Simple," I say. "The same as always."



(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:17 - ID#57232)
panda: Thanks! Saw glacier on the Going-to-the-Sun-Highway many years ago. Almost got the trailer stuck in a one lane tunnel. Lost a piece or two off the top. Remember standing on the edge of a 2-3000 foot precipice with wildflowers all around, and the blue and grey of the triple divide in front. Seemed like each flat edge of the mountain drained in a different continental direction. Don't know if that was really true. Three flat surfaces. Steamboat rock looked just like its name -- jutting up out of a deep blue volcanic caldera lake. Don't remember the name of the lake.
I hope to go back there someday -- there, Mt Shasta, Mt Rainier, Lake Louise near Calgary. The West and Northwest has some beautiful spots. Have you been to the 'Ring of Fire' I think it is called just north of Taos New Mexico? If you go north to the Ring of Fire you are heading into the southern most reaches of the Rockies. Beautiful green valleys. If you go south from Taos you head into the desert -- absolutely flat until you pass over the 600 foot gully that is the beginning of the Grand Canyon. Can do both in the same day -- long one though. Reminds me of our trip to Cedar Breaks, where at the top you are in beautiful green forests -- near Zion, I think. But -- if you drive downhill southwest into the valley below -- within about 30 minutes you are in the desert. Breathtaking. Hope no one minds the diversion.
Yes I would like to find the live minicam in WJC's office. Given current technology, would not be hard to plant one, I would think. Perhaps the Chinese Communists did already. And -- why use a powerful transmitter? Just put it on the net!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:17 - ID#286224)
re: SILVZ (SSC warrants)
Can any one there tell me if the big volume today ( SILVZ ) was a big block trade?

Thanks ...


(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:18 - ID#250209)
US not biggest debtor Japan & Europe far worse as % GDP.
US has big national debt $6 trillion but it also has biggest economy. Debt servicing of Japan is DOUBLE that of US. European debt is 150% great in proportion to US in realative terms to their economy. That's why unemployment is double US levels and economic growth has been half as much. US economy has been growing in real terms which is why US has surplus due to massive increase in tax revenues. If somebody is worth $1,000 and owes $2,000 he is in worse shape than somebody who has $1 million but owes only $200,000. You cannot look at size of debt without size of economy. US is 1/3 of entire world economy so it should have the largest single debt. Japan debt has been rising so fast they may now owe more than US on a governmental basis.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:19 - ID#242300)
Japan took another hit about 20 minuts ago. Moodys just put their credit ratings on the choppoing block. Yen Bulls beware.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:21 - ID#57232)
Japan in debt like us? Goodnight for real -- spouse after me
Gollum: Good question. Is is possible for all fiat currency countries to be up to their eyeballs in debt? Perhaps. Perhaps the Rothschilds are the real owners of ( the universe and ) everything.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:22 - ID#207145)
Japan has cash money. The rest are just whistling Dixie.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:23 - ID#43460)
SWP1 re answer

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:23 - ID#45173)
Say you are in Asia. What do you think when the head of the US Fed says
that the US has nothing to worry about for now because the Asia crisis will for the forseeable future mitigate inflationary forces in the US.?

As the chief economist at Goldman, Sachs said a few weeks back, "We are looking downhill and cannot see level ground..."

Tears for Japan.


(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:24 - ID#250209)
Fed is not the creditor Fed does not have $6 trillion Creditors are pension funds
Everybody knows the single largest investor in US is California state government pension fund - not Fed!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:25 - ID#207145)
Don't count Japan out
I have a hard time with objectivity. Look at the figures. We are a year or two away from the poor house. Where is your Social Security money?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:26 - ID#353204)
EeeBee, you are of course referring to the recently deceased hephephooray
late of Silicon Investor, where the quickest hello-goodbye in the history of trial membership was recorded. They are extremely efficient over on
that thread, too bad for them it isn't directed towards something
that could garner a decent ROI. But I must hand it to them as far as
having the ears of the lovely and talented webmistress Jill - their
throw weights take out one hard target after another. EB, tell Ted
that something is afoot. From my outpost here at the frontier,
the bond orbitals appear to be jostling fierce-like. Last time that
happened, I got the notice in the mail telling me I'd won a free
35-mm camera. Plastic. But anyway - Is your wink museum temblor-proof?

Oh, and to whoever suggested it. Don't bring Cherokee back,
or else we'll tussle.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:26 - ID#43349)
In summary:

As the economy slowed, the Japanese banks made it harder to get credit.

As it became harder to get credit, the economy slowed.

To get out of the vicious cycle, do as the US ( the Japanses are great imitators ) did to get out of the depression and have the govenment give/loan money ( via preferred stock purchase ) to the banks so that the banks will ease credit.

Hmmmmmnn, might work, unless of course the money simply goes overseas because of high US real interest rates.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:27 - ID#250209)
Blooper - There is big difference between public vs private
Japanese government owes more than US in real terms. Japanese private investors have biggest savings. The two are not related it would be like says US has no national debt because total American savings is more than $25 trillion.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:27 - ID#207145)
What Japan has is cash
We have Bill Clinton. And we like him, or so the polls say. What does that say for us?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:27 - ID#218253)
Gazebo.....Here is a prediction based on my read on sentiment and perceptions.
Inflation is about to show itself, not deflation. The CRB is bottoming with Copper, nickle, lead and other industrial metals leading the way with grains not far behind. The Stock Market is, as I said a few nights, a few weeks, and a month or so ago, DONE!!!!!!!! The money is IN the market, not waiting to go in. DEBT, in case you haven't noticed is still there and growing. Hence the mis-perception that there is an unlimited amount of 401k money as well as disposable income to still fuel further gains. The fact that Gold funds, selling their own sectored stocks as well as ABX having a enormous short position DOWN HERE is well, IMVVVHO Bullish. There hows that for an answer?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:30 - ID#207145)
Thanks for your post on cashless society. It was long, but worth it.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:33 - ID#207145)
Jetsilver 7
Chech your figures, and your point of view concerning who has the CASH.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:35 - ID#242300)
Nikkei just went off the map! Investors are scambling to liquidate stocks on potential exchange related losses due to Moody's possible downgrade of credit ratings.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:36 - ID#207145)
Those guys have been in a bear market for 9 years, were just heading into one.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:36 - ID#43349)
I wonder if people consider the coming market crash as just another crash ( ho hum ) like in 87. You know, like it might happen next month or even next year, but it will all be over with and recovered by the time I need to get my 401k stuff out for retirement.

Hell, they might even look forward to it because it means their fund managers will have more opportunity to "buy on dips".

They could be right, if the economy stays strong forever and everyone keeps their jobs forever --- NOT!

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:37 - ID#353204)
GoatBrain - I'm lacing up my Chuck Taylors now.
The Chicag Wobbles. You have a gift for putting me into
inextractable situations, and me just laughing and saying
whatever. Does what I say actually matter or what I actually
said matter, or have you already got my script made out?

On the record: While Velveetaman has me apparently declaring
the Dow is history and my jumpshot is unstoppable, I have no
particular thoughts on what the Dow will do over the next few
weeks. The alert was sounded for gold, but I have to read
the tape and wait, wait, wait. Not saying this is the be all
and the end all. Just a reminder for heightened vigilance.
I am not yet confirmed on this. We do not have a go.
Is may just be bad gas. Is that clear?

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:38 - ID#431366)
Chas - don't sweat the grains
Make it fine print on the coin just to be upfront & honest.
But you and your allies could stand at the dawn of a new standard.


Ten what?

10 whatever is on the price tag
I don't care what else 10 means.
The price tag says 10.
I have 10 here in my hand.
Sold to the man with 10 ( plus some Silver for sales tax )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:40 - ID#43349)
Silver at 5.71, just one more penny....

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:40 - ID#250209)
Blooper: I did. Both IMF & OECD numbers are clear
Japan government is in big trouble that's why Moody is considering downgrade of government. Japan postal savings is private money not government. Japan trust funds are $1,200 trillion yen. On cash basis that is 40% of total world savings. It is not cash reserves of government. Japan has the cash and lots of it. It just doen't belong to the government. That's all I am saying. Market cap of NY stock exchange is $10 trillion which is considered as "savings" by economic statistics. If you blue the lines between government and private, then everyone has more cash than their national debts - probably even Russia.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:42 - ID#207145)
Worry about the USA. We are about to be in deep s*it

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:43 - ID#431366)
Screw the extra Silver for Sales Tax
They can include it in the price.
Perhaps 9 plus 1 for tax.

9 what?

The same thing on the price tag.

Lets make up a new name.

Somebody already did that.
They called it GG.

That's a stupid name!

GG - kinda sexy if you ask me.

Hey GG, wanna go out tonight.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:48 - ID#250209)
Blooper: I don't disagree. My only point is it ain't looking too good outside USA
either. The $ is running up maybe because things might be worse elsewhere. Deutsche Banks has $5 billion in loans by itself to Russia. If Russia goes, there goes the biggest bank in Europe. It just seems like Murphy's Law, whatever can go wrong is - all at the same time. That still doesn't means the $ can't rally sharply is the US has the least problems. Nobody is perfect today. It just a choice between trouble and a lot of trouble.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:49 - ID#43349)
I gotta get up early for all the excitement tomorrow. See if we can get this silver thing off the launch pad and on into orbit so we can turn our attention to gold.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:51 - ID#290172)
"Consumption spending represents about 56% of the GDP"
The four major components of the GDP are: consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.

Consumption spending represents about 56% of the GDP and is divided into three categories: durable goods ( items expected to last more than three years ) , nondurable goods ( food and clothing ) , and SERVICES.

Investment spending accounts for about 14% of the GDP and covers three categories: nonresidential ( spending on plants and equipment ) , residential ( single-family and multi-family homes ) , and the
change in business inventories.

Government spending represents about 17% of the GDP, covering spending on defense, roads, schools, etc.

Net exports account for the balance or about 13% of the GDP. IMPORTS DEDUCT from GDP and exports add to the figure. In recent years, the U. S. has consistently experienced net imports, with imports exceeding exports.

Obviously, Japan doesn't "consume" enough? {:- )

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:52 - ID#388209)
Jetsilver 7
Don't forget USG unfunded liabilities of 21 Trillion !
When those babies come due that's a lot of money to print & it goes straight to M1. Inflation always favors the biggest debtor & Uncle Sam will be the leading dead beat.
Simirally, the distinction between the public bankruptcy of Japan,Inc., & Japanese private savings is a distinction of little matter since when the Yen are printed to bail this matter out, the drop in Yen purchasing power will be no different than robbing them through a cruel direct taxation.



(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:53 - ID#207145)
We are in agreement on German loans to Russia. Russia is a time bomb.I
I just want you to look up what the un-funded obligations are to Social Security. How many Trillion$. Then check out the national debt. Just the intrest on the loan could bankrupt us soon.Clinton wants to "save" social security. There's nothing there to save.

(Wed Jul 22 1998 23:59 - ID#327123)
@ all
The ADR symbols for Avgold and Avmin are AVGLY and AVMLY respectively. They are both OTC so not every stock site works for them..I found them John!