Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:00 - ID#207145)
What is the Japaneese national debt. How much intrest do they pay?
I know theit taxpayers will be fighting mad soon. And reserves will have to be used. But they got cash. They dont have to use a credit card. Kinda like a Mexican sheetrock hanger. He's got cash. Don't even own a credit card.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:01 - ID#250209)
Newton: I agree. I see no way out for Japan but to inflate than means $ up.
Unfunded liabilities are also not unique to USA. Europe unfunded liabilities are more than twice that of USA because they promise a lot more & both labor movements in France & Germany want to lower retirement to 55 to reduce unemployment. Right! Talk about making European unfunded liabilities exploding. I like Armstrong's explanation as the first knee jerk reaction is toward strong $ and deflation as $ up, stocks down, bonds rally forcing long-term interest rates down. Then everything flip due to long-term liabilities and inflation. Not sure about his timing but I think its one more year then reversal in 2000. I think that's why he has been short-term bearish on metals but long-term he still claims gold will exceed 1998 high by 2007? Again not sure about that date. If things keep going like they are, his scenario may prove correct. Afterall, we had depression between 1929 and 1933 then FDR confiscated gold followed by 70% devaluation of $ to gold or in other words, FDR inflated US out of depression. Japan will have to do the same.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:04 - ID#287186)
You guys & gals thought MY posts were scary!
They were but sweet bedtime stories compared to
Sharefin's on Wed Jul 22 1998 20:09

I ain't religious but I could get to be.

Good God Almighty!

Y2K can't arrive soon enough to stop this BEAST!!

Mtn. Bear and Grizz - either of you have spare room in your caves?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:04 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:05 - ID#207145)
I jst hate it when we pile on Japan
I'm not overjoyed with em, but they're clean living, industrious, and don't kill each other like we do. Hell give a break. One more sneak attack and I'll go ballistic.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:10 - ID#250209)
Blooper: US interest as % of total expenditure is about 12% Japan 28%
All these stimulus packages & politican's refusal to make tax cuts permanent is due to government's huge budget deficit and debt to GDP ratios. Hashimoto was trying to cut government spending & dragged his feet about helping economy. The amount of funds government put to for bad loans is $27 billion but official bad loans are $500 billion. Even their FX reserves, largest in world outside of US, stand at only $175 billion. There is cash everywhere. It just doesn't belong to the government just yet unless they do what FDR did and confiscate paper yen instead of gold. This is what Moody's is becoming concerned about. Its the same issue in Russia. Lots of cash floating around because nobody is paying their taxes so government is broke and likely to default.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:13 - ID#207145)
Their bad banks= 2 years of our intrest payments..... Our guess, not Japann figures ( 27 ) billion.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:16 - ID#207145)
If you hate Japan, just wait till you turn that venom on USA. I know we're sorry as hell.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:22 - ID#207145)
Merle Haggard:
" Are we rolling down hill, like a snowball headed for Hell"? We are a
spoiled generation of amoral folks, who don't care about our families or our government. And our country is going to hell. So there, by God, that's how I feel.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:24 - ID#250209)
Blooper: I don't hate Japan. I feel sorry for them.
Their politicians have screwed up their economy as bad as ours have. I think it is just a matter of time. I'm just worried that the next year may not be so easy to figure out. Way too much sh*t is happening. If we have stupid politicians in Washington who don't understand what is going on, then they could become protectionist if $ goes up. They will look at trade and could cause a real world nightmare. I don't think they realize that this is a lot more important than mere trade flows right now.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:29 - ID#207145)
Your concern is not misplaced. We didn't go broke over our bank problems. I do believe Japan will be OK. We , however, will not only be impoverished, but maby enslaved by the Clintons of this world. A real national emergency, and he will strip every right we have.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:30 - ID#250209)
Signing off.
Time to look at short position of Asia

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:34 - ID#207145)
If nobody cares about important things
If money is all that matters, then this cashless society is coming up for you. I hope you enjoy it.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:35 - ID#207145)
Have a goodnight.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:36 - ID#207145)
Signing off.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:36 - ID#250209)
Blooper: I hate Clinton too.
I just disagree that USA becomes impoverished while Europe and Japan somehow survive. They are a far more socialistic and have made far more unfunded promisies to their people than we ever have. Good night.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:38 - ID#207145)
WE already are impoverished. Clinton is just a symptom. I do not hate him. I fear him.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:45 - ID#207145)
I hate to sound corny,
But I feel that the US lost devine protection. We are an immoral people,
with an immoral president. We promote being gay etc. The good people will stand by and allow this country to be enslaved. God will not save us this time. Someone else will lead us. Goodnight all. I have depressed myself. Oh well what the hay. 5 toddies then off to bed.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:54 - ID#290306)
A lazy Eeyore
Welcome back
Rapier wit - none better.
Tell it like it is!
Waft away:- Truth = never lost a penny on your calls!
You do realise that your mere presence will animate the dead here?

Buying tomorrow anyway ( it was scheduled ) 5% stop loss on paper...
Keeping the physical regardless.

I am a pretender - but my claim remains nil.

Still haven't figured out the shift thing... ( Anagrams aren't working yet )

Repair man
(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:54 - ID#412275)
PH in LA, GoldieHawk
PH in LA, Thanks for the comments,
Goldie Hawk, Thanks for the link,
Sorry it took so long to acknowledge both of your responses, I have been working long hours fixing air conditioners here in the Southwestern USA.

The Repairman

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:57 - ID#207145)
Europe is just starting their cycle, we're winding up ours. I would invest in a good European fund in late October. The Euro will be a help. So will pension funds.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 00:59 - ID#207145)
The key investment after Oct. LOWS
Will be Europe.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:04 - ID#388209)
Jefsilver 7 @ 00:01
I agree with this road map as 30 yr treasuries diverge north & short term rate lag true rate of inflation. US equities do a 73/74 bear soon of 70 to 80%. This farfel's stagflation & will result in runaway Au Bull. The revaluation of POG willmake AU the best investment since Isabella hocked the family jewels on her spice arbitrage !
The timing from collapse to revaluation will be much swifter & acute.

I must differ on suggestion that FDR, the pirate, inflated any thing out of any thing as the US economy was worse off in 1939 than it was in 1933.
Only the threat of war saved his ass in the 1940 election. Thanks for your contributions to the foprum.



(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:05 - ID#411149)
..... Goggled .....

I think things hereabouts may get lively indeedy
But do not threaten him with vague 404 worries
For they worry him not, nor will they quiet his voice
Hes smart enough to dodge 404s bullets for a long time
Folks, Gather and Remember, he INVENTED the 404 on this site
And proved that the most persistent among us
Can always return


This is as it should be
At least he has a sense of humor
A dying breed in these parts
Im glad hes back

(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:10 - ID#287186)
Results of Test of Frozen Tuna & Chili Cans
Tuna in Oil - came through fine.
Mayo, Tuna & Pickle Relish sandwiches were great!

Chili - seemed a bit thinner than usual but tasted fine.
Maybe freezing broke down some cell walls - easier to digest?

Next up - peaches in heavy syrup and cream corn.
The other veggies may not survive but I have it on another's
experience living without heat that the cans bulge but
the contents are okay - except peas which tasted blander.
( I've always felt that canned peas were bland anyway )

I'd buy more but maybe I should wait for a little slump.
It could be off for the big run!

Meantime Gold sits on a siding building up steam.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:24 - ID#411149)
..... PS .....

He DOES have a pretty good jump shot......
But s it unstoppable??
Don't look at me
Gettin old , my knees are bad
And I just can't jump like I used to
Or maybe I got the ball stuffed in my face
Twice again as much as thrice too often
So as far at THAT goes
I am way too mellow
For that sort of row
With the Gold that Goes


(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:39 - ID#433172)
Silverbaron- Thanks for the lists again, I'm in South East Alaska, I'm used to fractured mail service. Parcel post seems to work the best. I'm not sure about buying more silver ( got plenty ) but my wife is getting concerned over y2k and might be inclined to hold some more.

Blooper- If you haven't hit the sack yet, remember last night you mentioned I might be a little cynical. Right..Looks like the same bug bit you a little too? We gots problems OK but we gots lots of answers too, as a nation-world...Most of the trouble is illusionary, just numbers, interest, fiat money, a tempest in a teapot...Nature is the big ma-moo, we can't perswade nature with money, ad hominum arguments, prayer, gurus, da nada. Rien de tout. And we have done it to ourselves out of ignorance. Right now Norweigian factory trawlers are wiping out the pollock in the Bering sea, with total disregard for nature. Who knows? very few people know because ( they ) don't want you to know. Anyway isn't it nice to wake up in the morning with a refreshed mind.

Mike-- Where are you?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 01:56 - ID#255151)
Kitco Rememberence

In my early days at Kitco, when Gold was around 370 or so, I posted a bullish opinion on the yellow metal. A poster jumped all over me for that. I then posted something like "All right smart a**, where do YOU think it's going?" I was then told in no uncertain terms--THREE TWO FIVE! Heh heh, I would welcome that now. GoGold!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:02 - ID#284255)
Senate Committee On Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
Hearing on the Year 2000 Problem and Agriculture
Prepared Testimony of Dr. Edward Yardeni
Chief Economist & Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Securities
9:00 a.m., Wednesday, July 22, 1998
Full Text of Testimony
I would like to thank Chairman Richard G. Lugar and the Distinguished Members of this committee for the opportunity to testify today.
My name is Ed Yardeni. I am the Chief Economist, Global Investment Strategist, and a managing director of Deutsche Bank Securities, a global investment banking firm. The subject of my testimony today is "The Impact of the Year 2000 Problem on the Global Food Chain: We Need Answers Now." Today, I would like to raise a vitally important issue, which has been mostly ignored in the discussions of the Year 2000 Problem ( Y2K ) .
I am concerned that no one on this planet is assessing the potential negative impact of Y2K on the global food supply.
There is much that we don't know about Y2K. However, we do know that most computer systems must be fixed to recognize that "00" in the widely-used two-digit year field is 2000, not 1900. We know that if they are not fixed in time, computer malfunctions would greatly disrupt our businesses and governments. So there is a great deal at risk. We also know that we are running out of time. On August 19, 1998, many of us around the world are planning events to promote Global Y2K Action Day. On that day, there will be only 500 days until January 1, 2000. I will be hosting a live, all-day Internet "Countdown 2000 Conference," featuring some of the world's top Y2K experts.
I believe that with so little time left, it is very unlikely that all mission-critical systems will be properly fixed in time. I am an alarmist in this respect. I believe that only nave optimists can assume that there won't be any significant malfunctions, and consequently major disruptions to our global economy. It is important to understand that whatever systems are doomed to fail will all do so at exactly the same time, i.e., at the start of the new millennium. These failures are likely to have a domino effect on systems that are Y2K complaint. Consequently, I believe there is a 70% chance of a global recession in 2000 that could be at least as severe as the global economic downturn in 1973 and 1974.
I am amazed by the lack of alarm about Y2K, especially among our global policy makers. I will be the first to admit that there is a great deal that I don't know about the problem. What disturbs me is that I am not sure that our business and government leaders know much more than I do. The only organization in the world providing regular public progress reports about Y2K remediation efforts is the U.S. federal government. The latest one is not very encouraging, though the administration is putting a great deal of pressure on the federal agencies to have their systems fixed and ready for testing by the end of March 1999.
The fact is no one knows how much progress is occurring among state and local governments, private business firms, foreign businesses, and foreign governments. No one can say with any certainty that the following systems won't fail to some degree during 2000: nuclear missile systems, electric power grids, oil and gas distribution, telecommunications, air traffic control, transportation, shipping, manufacturing, distribution, banking, finance, and government services. I suppose, we can be nave
optimists and conclude that all will be well because the consequences of failure are so terrible.
This blind approach is unacceptable, in my opinion. We need more answers about Y2K so we can assess the risks and prepare contingency and disaster recovery plans. There will be a recovery from the Year 2000 recession. It will start sooner if we enter the new millennium with our eyes open.
We are especially blind about the possible problems that will hit the global food supply in 2000. This must be a top concern for all of us. Today, there is virtually no starvation on the planet earth thanks to the impact of new technologies. I suspect that the Y2K technological problem could significantly disrupt the food supply chain. All I can do is ask the questions, hoping that the responsible business and government leaders have the accurate answers:
1 ) Will farmers have access to the information, the seeds, the fertilizer, the feed, and the credit they will need to feed our global population in 2000?
2 ) Will disruptions in our energy supply chains ( electric, oil, and gas ) hamper the ability of farmers to grow their crops and feed their livestock?
3 ) Will the distribution channels operate without any serious risk of delays that might spoil food products before they get to market?
4 ) Will just-in-time inventory systems function properly so that food retailers will have ample supplies on the shelves?
5 ) Can our food supply chain cope with a wave of panic buying late in 1999, similar to what always happens during localized natural disasters?
6 ) Is there a risk that fertilizer plants might fail as a result of problems with embedded chip systems?
7 ) How might disruptions in natural gas distribution depress fertilizer production?
8 ) Should farmers be encouraged to stockpile the basic inputs they need to produce food in 2000?
9 ) Will the railroads be able to operate at full capacity to transport grains, livestock, and finished-food products to their customers.
10 ) Will ships move freely in and out of ports to deliver the imported and exported foods that are so important in global trade.
11 ) Should we be ready to provide food assistance to nations overseas that have major Y2K-related problems with their food supplies?
The entire Asian region is in a recession, perhaps even a depression. The situation is so bad that President B.J. Habibie of Indonesia urged his people recently to fast twice a week during daylight hours to save three million tons of rice, roughly the amount that the country has had to import this year. This shocking development may be just a warm-up act for the kinds of problems that many more countries may face in 2000. Asians have a Year 1998 Problem, which is distracting them from fixing Y2K. Many other countries around the world are not moving fast enough to fix their computers.
A recent survey of thousands of companies around the world, conducted by Merrill Lynch, suggested that there is a high probability that the phone system might not work in Brazil in 2000. This nation is one of the biggest grain producers and food exporters in the world. If the phones don't work, what might be the impact of food production, distribution, and exports? Again, all I can do is ask the questions? Clearly, we need answers! What is the United States doing about the Y2K problem overseas? Not much, and certainly not enough. In the past, our foreign policy leaders have rarely shied from projecting our power to defend and pursue our national strategic, political, and economic
interests. Yet, the administration has adopted an arms-length approach to the Y2K problem overseas, even though it could have a very deleterious impact on many of our national interests. Our recently-announced contribution to the World Bank's efforts to increase the Y2K efforts of emerging nations is puny. I believe we need a Y2K Marshall Plan to help these nations fix the Y2K problem as much as possible in the limited time available. Such a plan must also help them prepare contingency and disaster recovery plans.
Mr. Chairman, I have read your bill S.2116, which would authorize several badly needed reforms in the Department of Agriculture and streamline the information technology operation. It distresses me that it is even necessary because it clearly reflects the fact that the Department is in disarray when it comes to fixing the Year 2000 Problem. The General Accounting Office has been especially critical of the slow progress and institutional hurdles with respect to Y2K remediation in this vitally important agency. I support your bill and your efforts to accelerate the pace of progress.
Thank you.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:11 - ID#284255)
Sleeping thoughts - not mine.
The Nexus

The tears of humans
Tore a hole in their fabric of time's pace.
We weren't there to wipe their faces,
But to welcome them home.

The voyage was dark.
Their plan was unclear.

Most did not make it,
Simply because they could not imagine
Themselves to be beyond the doorway,
Into the house of infinite dreams.

Nor could their machines.

How they tried to create themselves,
To enter into the doorway.

How they failed in their creations.
They didn't know the power of their minds
To create what they perceive.
Rather, they thought they could perceive what their
Creations seemed to make.

What they considered themselves was shattered.
They were stripped as they entered the doorway.
Desperation and panic ensued long before they got there.

Intuition had few followers,
Followers had few leaders,
And leaders had few visions.

The great effort, like a beast,
Captured the attention of humankind.
Grandfathers, grandmothers,
Their sons and daughters,
And their sons and daughter,
All fought the great beast in vain.
Some had the image of the beast in their heads as they thought,
Others had the image of the beast in their hands as they toiled.
It occupied their lives for much as they could think and sleep.
It seemed very humanly.

No one could travel,
Save to travel and worship the beast.
No one receive water or food,
Save for those who toiled for the image.

In the end, they toiled for naught.
Naughty-naught to be exact.
Because in the face of change,
None can resist as they tried for years.

Turning away from each other
And turning to their inventions.
What better way to understand oneself
Than to turn to things most you.

How could they know the arrival of the law,
When they no longer knew time.
How could they know the law to be natural,
When they think it to be a man.

All this for nothing?
All this to learn everything!

Every moment is the creation of all others,
From perception.
Ideas of past,
Ideas of future,
Mere resistances to what exists the same.

The nexus is the turning point.
The now is the only point of true existence.
We are the next you.
You are the next us.

Let one who has ways to understand-
Six hundred threescore,
Sixty threescore,
Six threescore,
Six-tenths threescore,
Six-hundredths threescore,
Six-thousands threescore;
The final hour,
The end of a thousand thousand years of fears,
The number of the Great Beast,
The letters of the beginning and end,
The end of visions,
The beginning of truths.

We must go back in time to repair our hearts,
In dreams and ships,
In visions and unities.
Merely to maintain our existence;
To know that all is the same.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:18 - ID#430212)
gold mining stocks....
For what ungodly reason are gold mining stocks being battered down so much for? Soon you'll be able to purchase a share of some of these stocks for only about $1.00. Time to buy in you would think. Think again! You'll probably find out shortly afterwards that your investment would be cut in half considering the rate at which these stocks have been falling as of late. There is NO news that is good news for the gold mining sector. I NEED A DRINK!!!!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:21 - ID#255151)
sharefin @ 02:02

Just read Yardeni's statement to the Senate
Agricultural Committee. Richard Lugar is my senator. Attended the same high school at the same time as my mom, although she never knew him then. Maybe I should ask the Good Senator a question or two, eh!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:25 - ID#210114)
Probably Already posted but....

Wednesday July 22, 7:01 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Gold To Remain In IMF Reserves

IMF Unlikely To Sell Significant Amount

The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the world's second largest holder of gold reserves, is
highly unlikely to sell a significant amount of its gold in the immediate future, it is claimed in a report
published today.

In a wide-ranging study entitled the ``IMF and Gold,'' Dick Ware, of the Center for Public Policy
Studies of the World Gold Council, says that although gold no longer has an official role within the
international monetary system, it continues to serve an important function in underpinning the IMF's
financial strength. Among other things the presence of gold on the IMF's balance sheet provides
reassurance to countries whose currencies are used in fund lending operations.

The IMF currently holds 3,217 tons of gold, worth $31 billion at a price of $300 an oz. This is
about 10% of the gold held in the official sector and around 2.5% of the total stock of gold
worldwide. ``What the IMF does with its gold is clearly of vital interest to anyone with a stake in the
gold market -- miners, trades, manufacturers and consumers,'' said Ware.

The fund is no longer permitted to buy gold and its options, therefore, are limited to selling some or
all of it or simply ``sitting on it.'' There have been suggestions that the IMF should sell its gold, but
they have failed, with limited exceptions, to gain the necessary support of the membership, since an
85% majority is needed for any sale of the fund's gold.

``It has remained the majority view that it is better for the fund to preserve its gold against unknown
contingencies rather than sell it to invest the proceeds elsewhere,'' said Ware. ``International
monetary officials are often more comfortable if they have something tangible with which to confront
any unforeseen crisis. Gold provides such real support.''

``Certainly this moment, there is little prospect of the fund's membership, as reflected in the Board
of Executive Directors, agreeing to an outright sale of the majority of the fund's gold. There are
enough important members who hold gold in their national reserves - and see the good reasons for
doing so - to prevent this happening,'' said Ware.

The fund is still considering the possibility to sell a small amount of the fund's gold - up to five million
ounces - to help with the debt reduction plan for the world's poorest countries; and another
proposal to sell up to three million ounces of gold to cover late or defaulting loan repayments to the
fund's Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility ( ESAF ) .

These potential sales have been agreed to in theory by the membership, but it is by no means certain
that they will happen in practice.

Fund members would undoubtedly be concerned at the prospect of similar operations continuing,
with the ultimate possibility of the fund being left with no gold at all. There are significant reasons
why gold remains important to the fund. Piecemeal initiatives which continually eat into the stock will
undermine its fundamental raison d'etre.

Ware added that it was important to be clear about the positive reasons for the fund continuing to
maintain its existing stock of gold.

``An underlying factor to bear in mind - one which has a direct bearing on any fund member which
holds gold in its national reserves - is that fund sales could affect the value of others' outstanding
holdings. But it goes beyond that, since the price of gold - influenced by any significant market
operations - will affect the viability of the gold mining industry in those countries which mine it,''
Ware said.

``Although the major producers are mainly developed countries, there are a number of countries
with small producers by world standards, which are nevertheless important in terms of the country's
income and employment. Any actions taken by the fund which might be detrimental to the gold price
could therefore have an impact on the economies of a number of its members. Highly unlikely
though it may be, at the extreme a fall in the gold price could be the last straw which forced a
country to approach the fund for resources,'' Ware added.

Gold is held by the fund at the old official price of SDR35 to the ounce ( $42.22 ) and is therefore a
significantly undervalued asset on the fund's balance sheet, and consequently the fund's financial
position is stronger than it appears. Gold adds a ``fundamental strength'' to the balance sheet which
may be important in years to come.

``As has been seen frequently in recent years, the nature and extent of financial shocks are
unknowable. Although they have tended to equate to problems in individual ( large ) countries, it is
not beyond the bounds of possibility that in future they might involve the whole system. In such an
instance, the fact that the fund owns gold could become an important factor in the equation.''

``Difficult though it may be to forsee at the moment, who knows what a future international
exchange rate system might comprise?'' Ware asked.


The IMF and Gold - Research Study no. 20, is one of a series of reports published by the World
Gold Council on a number of wide-ranging issues of importance to the international gold market and
all those involved in it. Copies of this report and of a full list of other reports are available from the
WGC, 444 Madison Ave., Ste. 301, New York, NY 10022. Telephone 212/317-3848.

The World Gold Council is an international organization formed and funded by leading gold mining
companies from around the world to increase the demand for gold. The countries served by the
Council account for approximately 80% of global gold demand.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:36 - ID#252150)
The Turtles trading system@Had a strange experience on the golf course
this afternoon. I was out on the course with my wife & her friend & on the 3rd hole a par 5, my wife noticed a turtle on the far left side of the fairway. It was a fair sized turtle ( about 8 inches long ) & for some reason had wandered 2 fairways away from a pond. My wife decided that we should take it back to the pond from whence it came. I picked it up just after hitting my 2nd shot & carried it towards the green. When I picked it up, it retracted into it's shell, but I held it at eye level & looked at it face on. There was something about that turtle, a certain dignity.
He kind of looked at me quizically, as if to ask-what the hell do you want?
When I looked into it's eyes, it struck me that I was looking into pre-history. The turtle as a species has'nt changed for 100 million years, & yet we humans share common genetic material with it. Just before I reached my approach shot to the green, I cut across the parallel fairway & deposited the turtle on the edge of the pond. I then made my way back to my 80 yd approach shot , knocked it over the green & made bogey.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 02:41 - ID#257148)
Sociobiology rules....It's all in the Genes, Jean.
It's a long time since I studied Crick & Watson, so it's news to me that "we share genetic material with the turtle"

Then, when I look at our politicians, I can believe they share genetic material with slugs.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 03:14 - ID#255151)
Genetics 101

This site has a cornucopia of information on genetics. It rings with Mendellian clarity on DNA, RNA, and all them other 3 letter things. You don't even have to delete the "en" to go to this URL!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 03:37 - ID#255151)
New York Times Attacks Janet Reno

The editors write a scathing editorial on the Attorney General. ( must reading for tolerant1 )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 03:40 - ID#252150)
Aurator@We humans like to think that we are so superior that it's a real shock
for most people to try to comprehend that 98% our genetic material is shared with chimpanzees. You're right though, when I think of some of the powerfull leaders in the world, even though some of them have hooded reptillian eyes, & even baser instincts, I unjustly maligned the turtles.

To bed to count turtles.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 04:25 - ID#333126)
James -- re:genetics
actually, the figure is more like 99.5%

humans are less than 1% different ( DNA-wise ) from chimpanzees!

no religious flames, please...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 04:48 - ID#45173)
"'As has been seen frequently in recent years, the nature and extent of financial shocks are unknowable. Although they have tended to equate to problems in individual ( large ) countries, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that in future they might involve the whole system. In such an instance, the fact that the fund owns gold could become an important factor in the equation.'

"'Difficult though it may be to forsee at the moment, who knows what a future international exchange rate system might comprise?' Ware asked."

Looks like the IMF and many of us hold gold for the same reasons.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:12 - ID#185448)
As from a rather philosophic point of view - from stardust were made, the turtle, the naked ape and the lime. So there is not too much difference, we indeed all share adenin, guanin, cytosin and thymin, connected with phosphor and sugar.

What handicap had that turtle?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:36 - ID#284255)
Ask him about the' strings of lights' analogy and how they function.
Seems like there's more facets on this gem than previously thought

Stolen from newsgroup:
My 2 florins--As I understand it, Paul Milne is saying that all those
"muddle throughs" must happen, or our entire infrastructure collapses.
It is like the old Christmas lights, where if one bulb went out, the
entire string went dark. The utilities, banks, railroads, military, etc.
are set up in the same way as the old light strings. Within each one of
these critical functions are millions of strings of light. Each string
has many bulbs that must be tested. The mathematics of this thing seem
to be getting more and more negative.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:40 - ID#386245)
Now I'm REALLY worried!!!
Decided to get the authority's permission etc. to hook up my new generator-to-be to my household electricity supply. Will have a switch so I can take it from 'them' or supply it myself.

So I spent half an hour on the phone going through various levels of incompetence, until I got to talk to a fairly senior personage.

"I'm hooking up a generator to my house in case of an interuption in supply", says I.

"Why are you doing that?", says he.

"Because of Y2K", says I.

"I beg your pardon?", says he.

"You know, the millenium bug", says I.

"The what?", says he.

( Pregnant pause, whilst I digest this information )

"I do not expect to have electricity supply from you in Jan. 2000", says I.

"Why not?", says he.

"Well, because of all the imbedded chips throughout the system", says I.

"I beg your pardon?", says he.

( Now I'm REALLY worried )

"Could I speak to your supervisor?",says I.

"Well, here is the number of the 'Installations Inspector'", says he.

"Thank you", says I.

( Stunned silence for 5 minutes )

"Oh SH*T!!!", thinks I.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:41 - ID#252391)
pretty quiet
Looks like rally days in the metals are over. It was fun while it lasted. And either this baord is broken or every one is heading for shelter.

Big loss in HK, London down 1%, gold off $1.40 and silver is about the only thing tha is unchanged or better.

One of my favorites will be under preasure - SWC down one point each of the last two days will probably fall a similar amount today. The 26 1/2 area looks to be tested before the weeks is out.

Gold has recovered as I write to be only off 50 cents in London but silver has fallen 2 cents. So much for a short squeeze.

APH looking good as usual.

I guess the good news is is that Bart must be working on his improvements.

Oh well, what else is new - little rally in a bear market - fleeting.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:42 - ID#284255)
Who's flying blind????????/
From the Washington Post 22 July 1998

....."To conduct the testing, the FAA hired two retired IBM programmers
and assigned a handful of other agency employees to the project, which
involved checking more than 40 million lines of "microcode" -- software
that controls the mainframe's most basic functions. Among the initial
areas of concern was whether a date problem would affect the operation
of the mainframe's cooling pumps. If the computer does not regularly
switch from one cooling pump to another, it can overheat and shut down,
causing controllers' radar screens to go blank.

.....The technicians, however, found that the microcode doesn't consider
the last two digits of the year when processing dates. Instead, it
stores the year as a two-digit number between one and 32, assuming that
1975 was year one. As a result, they determined, the system would fail
in 2007, but not in 2000.

....."Nothing we have found will cause an operational aberration over the
new year. It will continue to function as it's supposed to," said one
FAA technician working on the project. FAA officials recently allowed a
reporter to tour the facility here and talk to employees on the
condition that they not be named.".....

......How is it that they didn't realize their computers counted dates this
way until now? Can anyone confirm this about IBM's Model 3083
mainframes. Thanks.

Just this 'alone' makes me believe that they don't know what theybare talking
about. However, in the event that the 3083'd *do* function, that does not
explain away the fact that there are no compliant Airlines, no compliant
airports etc etc. Then there are all the vendors and suppliers of the FAA, the
Airports and Airlines. Then in order for commercial traffic to exist, commerce
itself has to be functioning. It won't.
Airlines operate on razor thin margins and if traffic was severely curtailed
they could not stay in business. Could you stay in business long if over half
of your planes sat on the ground?

Even if the FAA is 100% ready, it is virtually meaningless. As I have said
before, individual compliance is moot. It is the compliance overall and the
myriad of dependencies that will bring it all screaming down.

Paul milne

(Thu Jul 23 1998 05:58 - ID#284255)
Sounds like the local power providor I spoke to.
He was the local Year2000 Project Manager for FNQEB.

His advice, "Go home, have a party and don't worry, it'll be okay."

After talking to him for 15 minutes, I soon realized I knew more about Y2k than he did.
And he's probably on 60k a year for his skilled services.

I've sent various letters to FNQEB as well as their parent company Ergon Energy, all to no avail.
Seems they don't know what I'm talking about, or they don't want to talk about it.

Just received Ergon's latest factsheet flyer in the mail and they don't mention Y2k once.
Not even a nice comforting comment like, "They will be ready."
Seems like they're in denial or that they don't want to tell us what they know.

The absense of info is extremely disturbing.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:19 - ID#43349)
".....The technicians, however, found that the microcode doesn't consider
the last two digits of the year when processing dates. Instead, it
stores the year as a two-digit number between one and 32, assuming that
1975 was year one. As a result, they determined, the system would fail
in 2007, but not in 2000. ......"

So even after we get through 1/1/2000 there may be little surprises depending upon how the code was implemeted. We will soon be living in interesting times.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:33 - ID#57232)
Oh Oh -- big time trouble in big China (not movie Little One)
All: Jiang orders Chinese military out of businesses.
Please splice together and change first letter to h.
I'm not sure what this means, but it might be a cover for dealing with the banking crisis -- China owes 600 billon plus to the outside world -- mostly Japan. What about MFN status? What about all those VIP types that are senior members of the Communist party, and make money doing business? Will all the 'impure' communists be purged?
Bad sign --- we must add China to our watch very closely list.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:39 - ID#230376)

.........that turtle spent days to get where it was...then some "do gooding " idiots decided to take it back to its' starting point. Go Gold and turtles!!!!!!!!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
Goldman Sachs takes delivery of 30 million ounces of silver

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:44 - ID#26793)
Moody's ready to downgrade sovereign ratings for Japan

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:45 - ID#57232)
China has a prominent cyclic boom and bust economy
All: If what I think is happening, you can forget the just renewed MFN status. It will be on deaf ears. Any one know how long the bust part is in China? I guess it is time for the Communist leaders to assert their power -- can't let things go too far. After they regain total control, the boom part may begin again.
We may see trade from China drop off some more this year. And -- Japan may be forced to address their creditor role with China very, very soon. I'll bet that they don't get a single penny now. Might get a promise to pay it back later. I don't think the Chinese want to pull their military out of all those lucrative businesses, or jeopardize the economies of the rest of the world. But they are Communist, and survival of their system comes before everything else. Always does, doesn't it -- for any Government.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:46 - ID#29048)
The link expired... here is the new a whole new meaning to "military-industrial complex", doesn't it?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:49 - ID#26793)
All: note the palladium news in the Goldman Sachs article.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
South Korea consumption falls 8.8%

(Thu Jul 23 1998 06:55 - ID#57232)
China -- exceptions to Military role in business
All: Apparently if you are military, but do war-related entrepreneurial activity, that is ok. Just get out of everything else. I wonder about that Satellite company where the CEO is the daughter of a high level military Communist party member -- the one that dealt with Loral. Did they do business with John Huang and Commerce? Another business? I'll bet that they are doing fine. Got the MIRV technology, and more accurate, reliable missles. Pretty good deal - enough for the authorities to look the other way. Military sales to Iran, India, Pakistan, xxxistan, etc. are exempt, too, apparently.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:00 - ID#57232)
Thanks! This is really hot!
speed: Military - industrial complex, indeed! I think I am getting the complex. I think this is our 'China devalues' notice -- we have been talking about this for over 6 months. Japan will get hit the hardest. And, fewer cheap goods for the US -- inflation here we come.
It will be interesting to see how the US markets respond to this. And only about 10 days after WJC visits China. I'll bet he knew this was coming.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:05 - ID#26793)
Moody's downgrades all Venezuelan debt.

Cage Rattler
(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:07 - ID#33184)
Taiwan central bank reportedly to cap foreign investments in futures
TAIPEI ( AFX-ASIA ) - The central bank plans to limit foreign investment in Taiwan futures contracts to up to 30 pct of the inward remittance, the Economic Daily News reported.

Risk management and market discipline are the central bank's major
concerns on the subject, the paper said.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:08 - ID#26793)
Stock analysts echo Greenspan; stocks ready for a big fall

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:09 - ID#57232)
Donald: Glad to see a familiar 'face' on the prowl. Moody's has been busy today! Japan and Venezuela within 24 hours. You wonder about the timing. Sure fits with sharefin's swing index having fits. It is interesting to note that the Nikkei 225 is doing ok today -- only down a little bit on this news. Already discounted in Japan, perhaps?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:15 - ID#26793)
Malaysia plans to reduce dependence on U.S. dollar; stabilize ringgit

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:18 - ID#290306)
Mr. Flick: other bits
Did you notice Taiwan's "reunification" comments yesterday?
Also, Iran successfully tested a missile capable of reaching Israel,
and assasination attempt in Chechnya.
Somehow this should effect POG - a slight shifting of shorts perhaps?
( Aside from the IMF gestures RE gold reserves )
I just do not know.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:19 - ID#411440)
@ all: I talked to a programmer friend yesterday, and he says
the Y2K thing is overblown. He says any progrmmer worth his salt
puts in default lines to cover glitches like date code conflicts.
He is more concerned about small businesses not operating the morning
of year 2000. He was talking to a friend who programmes for Ontario
Hydro ( electrical power ) and he says the Y2K thing is overblown.
This programmer says the lights will shine on Jan. 1 in Ontario.

I'm not so sure. This province elected a neo-conservative gov't
4 years ago and they have systematically dismanted the social
infrastructure here. The Harris gov't has fired tens of thousands
of civil servants, closed dozens of hospitals, attacked the public
education system with unconstitutional legislation ( if public education
is dismantled, parents will be faced with sending their children
to private schools at 10 to 15 thousand dollars each per year. They
presently pay a 700 dollar flat rate through their taxes, which are
already the lowerst in the industrialized world. ) There is already a
nursing and doctor shortage, as medical and other professions leave
the province. Why am I telling you all this infrasttructual stuff?
Ontario Hydro is owned and operated by the Ontario Government. They
have gone on record as saying that this utility will be broken up
and privatized piecemeal in the year 2000. Ask yourself this question,
If you were an administrator of an organization which was going to
cease to exist in 15 months, and you anticipated being fired, would
you worry about the Y2K compliancy of a system that was being dismanted
so it could be sold off to private friends of the Harris gov't?
This gov't has fired so many civil servents, it can no longer do the
impact studies for further downsizing, but goes ahead and downsizes
anyway, blindly. So am I worried? You bet. This gov't has been
acting as a force of entropy in this province, dismantling the
social infrastructure needed to keep this society intact, and just about
the time its electoral mandate is up, along will come Y2K to finish
the job. Like anarchies? Come visit Ontario.

I have bought physical gold, and am looking for a generator. I have
begun to stockpile food, and am looking to move out of Toronto
by next summer if possible. There is no way I want to be trapped
in a city of 2.5 million, 55% of whom live in apartments and 10% of
whom are on welfare, if the power and heat goes off, and the welfare
cheques stop coming. And for those of you who say, good riddance to
welfare, keep in mind that 20% of any human population is unemployable
simply because of inherited physical and intellectual disabilities,
and these people will survive even if it means pillaging your home
while you are away at work. Welfare is a lot cheaper than paying for
police, home security, insurance premiums, and hospital bills.
And if this gov't dismantles public education, 2 000 000 children will be on the streets to add to the fun.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:21 - ID#289357)
COMEX stocks breakdown 7/22/1998

Gold: unchanged at 1,082,288


40,409,035 Registered
41,162,103 Elligible ( -1,502,966 ) All removed from Wilmington Trust
81,571,138 Total - a new 12 year low

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:21 - ID#26793)
Still seems much to early to call a bottom in Japan, or anywhere else in Asia. Japan should bottom at about the time it is acknowledged that the U.S. is in a depression. They will be the first to recover. I think the Hashimoto remark about selling bonds and buying gold is still valid even though Hashimoto is gone.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:25 - ID#255151)
NY Times Slamming Reno Again!

Folks, I think Reno is about to fall.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:26 - ID#57232)
Just a little disturbing thought
All: Perhaps the spinmeisters have decided we need our cleansing correction now, before the y2k elections. My intuitive guess is that it is too late for that -- whatever happens will either be delayed, or prolonged, and spill over into the y2k period. Bad news for the Democrats, I think. Unless WJC is thinking of declaring a national emergency. I don't think this will fly, though. AG probably knows that the Democrats will get egg on their face if this comes about -- he knows everything we can figure out, brilliant closet gold bug that he is.
It will be interesting to see what AG does -- I doubt he will want to be at the helm if everything starts to head south bigtime, though I would feel best with him at the helm. He just got the FED role before the 1987 crash. So far he has been doing very well. That could end in a hurry. Would you want to be the FED chairman that began with a crash, and ended with one? You might not go down in the history books as the best FED chairman we ever had. History has a tendency to write itself not based on competence, brilliance or skill of those written about, but in relation to the shaping events. EG Herbert Hoover, or Woodrow Wilson.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:39 - ID#347267)
Barton Biggs: Say Hi to the "Nanny Bubble"
Good morning to all: Have a look at this link, under the Matador for the latest from Barton: .
Hello and happy to meet you Goggold. I know the guys said don't bother to ask why, but is this permitted?: Is one of the keys you are waiting for before making your CALL a spike up in OIL???
Best regards; Mtn Bear

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:40 - ID#255151)

I think Greenspan's term ends in August 1999. At some point, the markets will start treating him like a lame duck and cease fearing him. When do you think that will happen? I would guess before January.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:44 - ID#242325)
JSE smash
JSE gold index getting smashed this morning on modest rand rally and lower POG. Does not bode well for the gold complex near-term.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:45 - ID#206358)

Thanks for the hardwork you've been contribute to "kitco".I really appreciated to read the post on 06.44 a.m!!


(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:46 - ID#29048)
Silver to 5.74
Bloomberg TV just flashed silver up 8 cents to 5.74.......

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:51 - ID#57232)
Hope you are ok -- and family ok
Jin: Good to hear from you -- the red and blue paint in the post yesterday worried me. What do you think about the China announcement that the military has been ordered out of free enterprise? False alarm, or big time trouble? Thanks -- You are the Kitco man on the scene. Just -- please remember to duck!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:52 - ID#35571)
5.74!!! We're off to the races. Hang on to your hat.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 07:57 - ID#28994)
I assume from your post you would like to return to the Bob Rae government. His socialist government ran the debt from 24 billion to 98in four years. The conservatives were elected to clean up the mess.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:01 - ID#35571)
Still waiting for confirmation of that 5.74 of Bloomberg's.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:01 - ID#373284)
and another link on Y2K you may find helpful...Namaste'

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:05 - ID#35571)
Frown. I am beginning to think the infamous Kitco glitch has infected Bloomberg TV.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:08 - ID#35571)
Here it comes. I just saw 5.72, I take it all back Mr. Bloomberg.

Goldilocks and the three BEARS
(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:09 - ID#432125)
Gold and Silver Prices
This wed sight is pretty dependable for displaying gold and silver prices.

I think the prices are spot prices, it is saying this morning that silver is at 5.74


(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:10 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum, All
Good morning from hot and sunny Central California ( still dark here though ) . Yes, yes. Big silver fun today. I see ya got your number.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:11 - ID#45173)
Latest observation of Y2K threat to systems
Most fears of Y2K disruptions by systems are based on the assumption that these systems work reliably now. In my experience, they don't. Even "mission-critical" systems suffer frequent halts and make lots of errors during normal operation. What happens is that someone using the application notices a problem with data on a report or a screen, or the application hangs or crashes. The application programmers find the bug, fix it, recompile, and restart the system. This goes on constantly. If they do not find all of the Y2K bugs before Y2K, they will find them when they occur, fix them, recompile, and restart. If there are still lots of bugs, this might take a long time, possibly days or weeks, versus minutes or hours for bugs that are encountered one or two at a time during normal operation.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:12 - ID#289357)

Last trade 5.750 according to

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:12 - ID#411440)
@ skinny: Rae was elected into a recession, then tried to spend
his way out of it, as gov't tax reveue dried up. A provincial economy
can not use Keynsian ( did I spell that right? ) strategies to correct
a national and international economic downturn.

The Harris gob't was elected into a boom economy, and has decided to
cash in Ontario infrastructure in exchange for a 30% provincial tax
rebate. This works out to about $600 per person. This won't even
come close to paying the increases in your property taxes because of
provincial downloading, much less the increased fees for other
gov't services like education, transportation, and legal services.
Try to spend your 30% tax rebate in the Ontario hospital that no
longer exists. Oh, becasue of the tax rebate, the deficit is still
massive, yet Ontarians are without a competant education and health
care system. Have any children? Health good? Got gold?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:12 - ID#286253)
@ Gollum re Silver overnight close

Looking for confirmation? Silver closed overnight at 5.72 with a 5.75 high.

As you guys always say: Go Silver!

Sam__A ( not sam! )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:15 - ID#255151)

Is this Kitco Silver graph current?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:19 - ID#29048)
Looks good above 5.70 on the is tough to confirm with Bart's stuff not working

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:22 - ID#35571)
It has the time stamp down at the lower left corner. They update it every ten minutes when it's working. September silver has already hit a high of 5.75 this morning and dropped back to %.74 to catch it's breath. We could easily go through six today. Speed saw 5.74 on Bloomberg TV at least fifteen or twenty minutes before I saw any kind of move anywhere else.

Good going, Speed!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:26 - ID#251166)
re. Silver
Monex spot open @ $5.69

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:28 - ID#35571)
Yes indeedy, another break to the topside. Silver has been resurrected.

For all you sports fans out there who may have missed out on the initial move, it's still not too late to grab some stocks. Don't dally.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:34 - ID#373284)
CMAX, Namaste' Discovered a new tequila yesterday...can't for the life of me
remember the name...dura does matter but it seems that mine was erased upon re-entry to the current the village yesterday we celebrated Frank Sinatra, Tony Bennett and Dean and the boys damn near started a riot...what fun...the police showed up looking gruff, saw it was me and the boys and joined in the fun...apparently Marshall's law does not apply to us...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

And a good friend made a bet with me, I either owe him a platinum Noble or he has to shave his moustache...don't ever bet me...still shaking my head...never bet me, never...although I shall be nice to him and have a topless woman from the Hamptons apply the blade to lessen the sting...

Oh yeah... write me... and I will see what I can do to ship you a bottle ( s ) of Patron...

It is a tad early...but some of the rivets need oiling...a gulp of Patron in your Honor...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:37 - ID#432157)
Is there any HOPE for POOR----- CANADA-----????

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:37 - ID#35571)
Run! , silver bears, RUN!
Whatcha gonna DO, when they come for you? Bad bears, bad bears, Whatcha gonna do?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:38 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
That's it. Monex spot silver: five-seven-two.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:39 - ID#373284)
an interesting link for Y2K

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:42 - ID#289357)

Last trade 5.755

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:43 - ID#35571)
Fly silver, fly!
Just think what silver could do, would do, if gold wasn't dragging it down. Come on, you gold bugs, let's have a little help here.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:45 - ID#289357)

The next time you get together with your local constables, ask them if they know who John Law is ( was ) .....I bet not one in a thousand would know.

Think 18th century France........currency collapse. French revolution.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:48 - ID#373284)
SilverBaron, Namaste' Consider it done my friend...
And a fine gulp of Patron to ya...check your mail in a few minutes...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:49 - ID#288186)
Gollum; I'll do my part...GO GOLD!! GO SILVER!!.. I'd like this stuff to take off before
my hiking trip next week. I'll be taking a cell phone to hopefully keep
up with what's going on in the markets. It's going to be frustrating if
I miss out on big action while I'm huffing and puffing in the mountains!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:50 - ID#255151)
Reno Under More Fire

The Attorney General of the United States is being openly charged in the mainstream media with a criminal cover up. Many in the House and Senate agree. If she goes, that's going to throw the doors to the White House wide open.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:50 - ID#411440)
@ geoffs: re. "Is there any hope for poor ol' Canada?" I assumeyou
you are referring to the decline in the Canadian dollar. The decline
is relative to the US dollar, not other currencies. It has been
falling, yes, but not as fast as most European paper. I don't think
the BOC cares as long as the net sell off is only relative to the
US buck. The problem may not be a weak Canadian economy, but rather
an overvalued US dollar. This should correct itself as the DOW sells
off and the US dollar reverts to norm. The US dollar is as overvalued
as the the DOW, in fact, because of the DOW.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:50 - ID#432157)
BART---Please fix the quote screen----PLEASE

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:54 - ID#373284)
I just want all of you to remember...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:55 - ID#377367)
I read this morning in a news report of PM's that Warren Buffet may be looking for an exit here.
Now I ask you, has Warren spoken to these Jerks and told them he's going to Exit? No,
that would not be in his interest to do so. In stead, its a feeble attempt to talk the market
the market down. With the massive short position in Silver there must be alot of people concerned about any upward movement in this metal.
As for Warren and his plan to exit. Why would a guy tell anyone least of all the sleaze balls that try and manipulate the market down????
With Comex stocks at fresh 12 year lows, somebody is buying massive amounts of silver. Maybe Warren is adding to his current position..............

(Thu Jul 23 1998 08:58 - ID#432157)

Just bought some CDN mutualfund BISSETT --NO LOAD -Dividend Fund.Also moved a bunch of Capital Gain into Bond Fund McKenzie -playing both sides of the street balanced thinking .IF there is a correction of Say 15-20% in Dow how bad will TSE suffer .

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:01 - ID#368244)

The graph on this page is working, it shows spot silver at 5.73.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:01 - ID#411440)
@ Geoffs: The Canadian dollar is as undervalued as most world
commodities, and for the same reason, an overvalued US$. US commodity
production is large, but not relative to the size of the US population.
Canada may have the highest commodity production per capita on
earth ( with the exception of Mid East oil nations ) , hence the bid hit
on the dollar as commodities decline. But commodities actually
constitute a small and declining %tage of the Canadian economy. The
world still equates Canada with natural resource production though,
and the perception is the reality, even though truth it is not.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:02 - ID#35571)
Manipulators, and shorts, and bears, oh my!

Yes I agree with you. Buffet is looking two to three years out, when the only silver to be found is in his warehouse, silver is in the double digits, and vast new mining production is not yet up to speed. Of course, if it gets here a lot sooner than that he will be glad to close out early. When he does it will be quietly without dropping the price much. I don't think he will use the same broker he used to buy the stuff either. To many people wacthing THOSE doors.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:05 - ID#373284)
a site put up by a friend on Y2K...take a peek if you would...Namaste'

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:13 - ID#35571)

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:17 - ID#35571)
Someone was glad to take Wilmington's off their hands.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:23 - ID#411440)
@ all: Last week I predicted that with 1 month lease rates of 1%
that gold would be at risk of shorting and the gold carry if it
breached 295. It did and has been shorted back down to 293.90
and falling. You can accept this interpretation, or blame it
all on the yen. I wish I had access to the present lease rate
figures, but they are unavailable on Kitco until the 27th. I
heard that one month silver lease rates have risen from 2.66 to
3.5% At these rates, silver is out of the silver carry game and
supply and demand fundamentals really do apply. Go silver.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:34 - ID#254269)
tolerant 1
Is Kitco reunion still scheduled for August 15th ?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:35 - ID#251166)
re. Silver
Is anyone really buying the line about Buffet exiting silver? My guess is the rumor's odoring up from the Merrill-Lynch quarter, supposed short many many ounces. D.A. where are you?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:37 - ID#212197)
Silver at $5.735 is a good sign that this specific market returns to logic.
I can imagine how Ted Butler might feel right now. But to congratulate this great analyst still takes another 100 cents or so. Let's say: we, who studied his articles, congratulate him when the mark $7.5 is passed through. Or shall we wait for the two digits?

What do you think, Ladies and Gentlemen?

( I.e., I can't wait to celebrate. My Bavarian nature breaks through.
Remember: they also celebrate the famous "Octoberfest" already in September!, and insist to call it... - " - . ) .

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:41 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' I think it is right around 12th through 15th, I have the exact date somewhere...write me...I will post the exact date and such as we get closer...location, directions, etc...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:41 - ID#402148)

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:44 - ID#212197)
Silver: Why should the most intelligent investor...
do something stupid like that?

WB will not exit before the price has gone far into the double digit area. Even I can predict this. And, even though past performance cannot be extrapolated into the future, I'm not one of the smartest ones.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:49 - ID#26793)
If silver can stay comfortably above the 233 day moving average I will be staying with it. I will start to post it daily.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:50 - ID#344236)
Dow fall - quote com

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:55 - ID#28994)
Private enterprise would not try to spend their way out of debt, common sense says it cannot be done.
But the socialist government of Bob Rae, as you said, tried ( to spend their way out of dept ) .
It is debatable whether they should be tried for high treason or stupidity.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 09:56 - ID#93232)
Saving Pvt. Ryan...
Saw the movie last night. Combat scenes are gruesome...very detailed. I'm not sure how realistic they are...I never saw combat. Story line is average. Take away Speilberg's production and it's an average war movie. To my disappointment, like any good American war movie, the calvary rides in at the end. "Stalingrad" ( German war movie ) was a better film. Die Deutschen know better than any the futility of war. "..Pvt. Ryan" does remind me of our parents' sacrifices ( for which I am grateful ) and the ( grevious ) passing away of that generation. Also, I was reminded of something my father ( WWII combat vet ) once said..."No one ever wins a war." God have mercy on us...ALL of us. Amen and GO SILVER!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:03 - ID#258427)
Woah...did you see that...
someone just bought about 350,000 shares of SSC ...up 1/16 ..7+%

go silver...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:05 - ID#258427)
and another 100,000 shares
just crossed the boards...go ssc...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:05 - ID#413307)
@ skinny: I lean toward stupidity/ignorance, but private enterprise
is not a solution either. You can not run a gov't with a profit
motive. The purpose of an economy is to support community, not
line the pockets of the already rich. In Ontario, we have gone
from ignorant economic policies on the left to dangerously stupid
economic policies of the right. Governments of the extremes of
the political spectrum are always bad for the common man.

If the Harris gov't implements its privatization, everything for
a cost plus profit margin basis for all services, you are going to
witness either a total impoverishment of Ontario society or a
hyperinflation event that will boggle your mind. Got gold?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:06 - ID#251166)
ALL re. Silver, Platinum
Very interesting. Looks like silver's just dropped into backwardation and plat's just bumped out of backwardation. Never saw two metals cross over at the same time. Comments? Insights?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:07 - ID#26467)
FWIW.Dropping in the 560 target ready to be picked up to ride
the wave.Silver to short, stoploss 581 as a day trade.
Coffee going for one test.Gold, well you know.
Main market wants to go higher timecycles in gear next week
until third week of August.Have a good day and happy trading.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:07 - ID#426220)
100 Reasons to Buy Gold & Gold Equities

Chief Gold Analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Douglas M. Cohen, has
produced a brilliant report on ALL THE REASONS, PLUS ONE why an
investor should buy some gold and gold equities to diversity his portfolio. NOW!

This is a very timely and significant gold report. Firstly, because was produced by the Gold Analyst of one Wall Street's most prestigious brokerage houses and investment bankers. Secondly, because the shiny yellow still hovers around 18 lows, while stocks continue to demonstrate illusory values of IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE as Fed Chairman prefers to call it. And finally, because THERE ARE 100 Reasons to Buy Gold & Gold Equities. NOW!

Due to the length of the report, it is divided into two parts. Part - I may be viewed at the following URL. Per custom, it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:16 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
Monex spot silver: $5.78. Now. So share with us all once again how this will all play out?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:33 - ID#333127)
I'd like to buy it back, but it won't drop

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:37 - ID#57232)
More on Jiang trimming Military free enterprise
All: This post has a different spin from the one I posted earlier. This one implies that many military people will shed their army uniforms, and wear business suits instead. My take on this is that if the problem is black market activities ( which we know are a problem ) , my original assessment is correct, not this more watered down one. I think the spinmeisters got in and pulled the other post. I will try to see if I can still pull up the old one.
Regardless, as Donald has said many times, the turmoil in SEAsia may not be over. And, we know that China has rather prominent boom/bust cycles. There may be more bust to come before the boom begins anew.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:38 - ID#411440)
@ all: Kitco spot silver at 5.86 as of 10:30. She's beginning
to blow!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:39 - ID#26467)
Moving above its trading band,

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:39 - ID#35571)
Well, we broke thru 5.72 and as anticipated this more or less confirms that the squeeze is in ( was anybody gaurding the warehouse doors last night? ) and supplies are tight.

Goblin is very short and the longs jave him by the balls ( his voice goes up another octive every nickel ) .

I think the action continues at least untill option expiry ( when is that?
Friday? ) . Then we regroup and decide what happens next.

Friday also brings Japanese elections. When will the results be in?

For the faint of heart, I would suggest closing out by this afternoon, the more brave of heart by around noon tomorrow, and the really gung ho can see if silver lives through the weekend.

For those who close out, be ready to get back in next week or else say whew! depending on how the wind is blowing Monday morning.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:40 - ID#316193)
Latest From Galbraith About Crashes..Err "Adjustments"
Linked from Fiend's Super Bear page.....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:45 - ID#372228)
Good Morning All...
Silver is indeed on it's way up the charts with strong fundamentals and blasting thru the technicals @$5.75 with next strong resistance at $6.24. As for Warren Buffett, this guy is looking for $20/oz silver, not $5.75. The rumors are most likely from Ted Arnold @ Merrill Lynch who has been talking the Bear stuff for a year now...he's trying to reduce his losses. They were the ones who filed the fake law suit against Buffett when he took delivery of XX Millions of Oz's. the shorts are going to have to cover very soon or loose a lot of money.

Once COMEX silver gets down to the 40 Million oz. lever, there will be panic in the streets for silver...and...we will have TWO metals which are now on the endangered species list ( Palladium & Silver ) . This will focus the attention onto Gold and will be dragged higher out of the same frenzie...this will be very soon. With Goldman Sachs pulling 30 Million out of silver, it will start the run for commericals to get the silver while it is cheap...There may be a lot of silver in the ground reserves, but it ain't coming out at these prices...The Volcano is smokin' and will blow here soon. So, if you see the camper rockin', don't bother knockin'.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:47 - ID#316193)
URL Again About Gailbraith on "Crashes"

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:52 - ID#14431)
RE: Goldman Sachs and COMEX silver
I thought there were about 83,000,000 ozs. of silver in the COMEX "window" ( as Ted Butler calls it ) BEFORE Goldman Sachs took delivery. Shouldn't that deliver reduce the COMEX stocks accordingly? When will we see that delivery reflected in COMEX stocks? Or, have we already?

There is much I don't know about all this, apparently. Could someone explain it for me?

Thanks, Fergie

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:53 - ID#35571)
Galbraith is right on.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:54 - ID#372228)
JTF - China
China, will devalue the waun here soon, they just couldn't do it with Big Billy C. in the country and before the vote on Favored Nation Status... Now that all of that is out of the way, Look out below Japan! There will be no love lost between the two countries. Besides, China has always been in depression, why should this be any different. It's just anyother push on the dominos.

Also, I noticed that you had posted that Malaysia was shedding US$ to stabilize their currency...I would suspect that all in INDY's will do the same soon...By By US$.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 10:56 - ID#373284)
more on jack's ass in OUR White House...Y2K...Heil Clintler...NOT!!!...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:05 - ID#350179)
Impacts JIN
Muslims in Indonesia form own party

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:05 - ID#368244)
Spot silver @ 5.80

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:10 - ID#35571)
I guess you gotta read between these lines:

COMEX silver stocks were reported down 1.5 million ounces Wednesday
to a total 81.57 million--"bolstering the market's bullish credentials,"
in the words of analyst GNI Research.
"The draw comes shortly after a US house took delivery of 5,000 lots
( 30 million ounces ) from the July silver contract, but as the metal has
not yet been re-delivered and stocks are falling, the feeling is that
much of this metal may be leaving the visible stockpile. It however
remains possible that the metal is re-delivered at some stage in the
future," GNI said.

Maybe someone who understands those comments can explain it to us. I think what it says is that 1.5 million ounces left the warehouse inventories. Some think that it may be a part of the Goldman-Sachs delivery, and GS has not yet put any of their so far delivered silver back in the warehouse. Although they may.

What if it's all on it's way to the Warren Buffet London warehouse?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:14 - ID#187109)
forget 'bout dem metals.......
tied for 2nd in ( the whole ) MLB....ohmy!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:21 - ID#251166)
@ Cyclist re. Silver
You observe silver moving above its trading band. What are you inferring from this?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:29 - ID#28861)
Average Investor
I wonder how long it will take the "Street" to realize that many of these gold mines they like to pound also produce a whole bunch of silver? Go ABX, TVX etc. etc.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:31 - ID#413109)
Thought it proper to
Follow up my earlier comments of a few days ago, in which I expected
a drop in the golds.
Now I believe, the drop is going to be finished today, probably ending
the day on the lows. Tomorrow and next week I forsee the price of
gold going up, and continuing up for the remainder of the year and
into the spring of next year. With, of course, corrections.

This then is a nice way to start a holiday trip, in which we'll meet
several Kicoites along the way.
Hopefully Bart will grace us with his presence in one of those venues.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:36 - ID#246224)
I confirm this as a customer (not of his). Y2K preparadness is a DO NOW or make do later.
Dear Y2k Weatherman,

I'm a wholesaler with Waltons and we sell at retail. We just went
from a 12 week bucket delivery to "indefinite". This is more
serious then I think you realize. I also buy from several other
companies including Lehmans, Country Living, Emergency Essentials,
etc. I have contacted them personally and they are way, way behind.
Some are so far behind they don't have any idea if they will even be
able to catch up by the year 2000.

I cannot agree with you that supply lines aren't that tight, in
fact, I strongly disagree with you. Furthermore, I'm not saying
there is a shortage, but there is an availability problem. Whatever
is on the shelf is gone in ten minutes. The volume of orders is now
in the hundreds of thousands. We've increased our volume over ten
times and we are quite small.

I can just about guarantee ( in principle of course, since I don't
manufacture the food or the supplies ) that if people wait to place
their orders this winter or late fall ( 1998 mind you ) , that it will
be too late.

I don't believe in scare tactics, thus I don't get on the band wagon
with a lot of the hype and propaganda. I'm only telling you what I
know personally as a supplier and what we are experiencing first
hand. I'm also not nearly concerned about Y2K as the many other
people, probably because I see other things which concern me much
more. I wonder when people catch on that there is more happening
here then Y2K - that will certainly start a widespread panic.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:39 - ID#431263)
DOWN 75!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:42 - ID#424345)
There are 41,162,103 ounces actually eligible for delivery against COMEX contracts. The other 40 mil is silver that is in storage at the registered warehouses of COMEX and is not available for delivery unless their owners decide to transfer this silver into the eligible stocks. This number has not fluctuated for quite some time.

To make a long story short we are very close to approaching ZERO if those 30 million ounces are actually removed from eligible storage.

Strictly speaking COMEX could continue to trade with effectively zilch stockpiles since that is what they have been doing for years with gold.

However, there are very, very large known stockpiles of gold owned by the CB's, IMF, etc. which amount to over a decade of consumption and are owned by those who have a mandate to maintain orderly markets, etc, etc so COMEX does not NEED large gold stockpiles.

However, Silver is a metal has has large industrial uses and is CONSUMED not merely moved from one vault to another. Furthermore, ALL of Buffets silver amounts to about a couple of MONTHS annual consumption and will not even cover the expected shortfall between silver production and consumption this year.

COMEX and the silver consumers of the world absolutely need those stockpiles that are heading to the big zilch in the sky....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:43 - ID#57232)
US Dollar -- up or down? Down if Japan bottoming, or Clintons star fades
trader vic: I don't think the US dollar will necessarily go down during turmoil in other currencies. For example, if Japan is going down due to a pending China devaluation, investors in Japan might transfer their funds to the US. The doors are supposed to open even more by Jan 1999. And -- in a real crisis they might sell gold, rather than buy it. Just like Indonesia and South Korea.
If you are right, it will be because Japan is not in a worse crisis after all, just bottoming. Often the worst news occurs at the bottom. My humble opinion is that the US dollar will fall if a major economy somewhere in the world is on the mend. How else will there be competition for dollars as the medium of exchange? Malaysia, Taiwan selling dollars could begin to tip the scales. Japan bottoming, selling dollars and buying gold would really do it. Europe showing a strong recovery would do it.
Another possibility is that the XXXgate stuff heats up, and Janet Reno gets the boot. The US Supreme Court would not even give her the time of day. That might spook the US markets, causing foreign investors to leave. The the US dollar would drop bigtime. AG's comments, and those of other commentator certainly aren't bullish, either.
I think D.A. is right on the money about one difference between the US and Japan. Japan has ( virtually ) no foreign debt, and we do. Hence they are not a creditor to anyone, we are. If we get in trouble financially, we will be in bigger trouble than Japan. If we devalue the dollar by inflating it, the foreign investors will leave in droves. If foreign investors bailout for any reason, the dollar devalues anyway. If the FED responds by raising rates the markets will tank. And they will defend the dollar first and the markets second. The US FED walks a tightrope.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:49 - ID#431263)
EUROPE beginning to feel the effects of ASIA and RUSSIA!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:49 - ID#242325)
reify: i think the XAU will bottom soon, but probably not today. Looking for a brutal selling climax by next week. Then, up, up, and away!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:52 - ID#242325)
DA versus APH
I'm rootin for DA even though I own no silver. A decisive breakout for silver would augur good things for gold after this shakeout is finished

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:54 - ID#266105)
@that first step's a doozy

The comment comes to mind that no nation in the post war
period once having lost triple-A sovereign debt rating
has ever regained it. Having stepped on the slippery
slope is historically a one way trip. Gravity I guess.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 11:56 - ID#431263)
Oil back down to 11? ( CNBC ) How long before MEXICO devalues again?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:04 - ID#251166)
re. Silver -- Check out this dishload of propaganda
Silver bursts through resistance on speculative buying
11:39 a.m. Jul 23, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, July 23 ( Reuters ) - Silver broke through resistance on Thursday to reach
two-month highs on speculative buying sparked by talk that U.S. investor Warren
Buffett might be looking to exit the market, analysts and dealers said.

Silver moved through $5.70 an ounce and was last quoted at $5.80/$5.83, from the
previous close in New York at $5.66/$5.69.

Gold remained under pressure and was last quoted at $292.90/$293.40 an ounce from
the previous close at $293.90/$294.40.

Analysts said silver soared on investment and speculative buying in the afternoon.

You are obviously seeing some investment buying amid talk that it is connected with
Buffetts exit strategy, with the idea being to run the prices higher, probably well above
$6.00, Macquarie Equities precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

Many market players have been expecting Buffett to exit the market sometime after he
declared a 130-million-ounce stake in physical silver last February.

Buffett said in February that his Berkshire Hathaway investment firm began buying
silver in mid-1997 in the belief that market fundamentals justified a higher price.

Dealers said Buffett could make a tidy profit if he got out at $6.00 an ounce.

We have absolutely no confirmation that its him but whoever it is is aiming for $6.00,
not the $7.00 or $8.00 of a few months ago. If Buffett could get out at $6.00, he would
make a tidy profit, one dealer said.

Naqvi saw no fundamental reasons for silvers rally, which seemed to be pushed by at
least one investment fund.

... etcetera.

Buffet has said he's been studying the silver market for twenty years -- two decades that include silver at $50, $25, more than $10 several times. And this guy, Naqvi, is trying to push off that with silver over $6, W.B. will make a "tidy profit"? Now I ask: Is Buffet the kind of player to settle for a "tidy profit"? I don't think so. What I do think is that the shorts are in deep weeds and are lashing out with cornered-cat techniques ( no offense goggled ) . To whom are these stories directed? Us little guys? I can't see the big players swallowing it. Comments? Insights?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:13 - ID#242325)
Bubble trouble
Looks like nmore bubble trouble in Manahattan today. Just a small hint of what is to come methinks

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:14 - ID#372228)
JTF: I see it as a flight from the US$ ( ie: less use, less need ) ...and Japan is just looking for an excuse to dump the US$ and go to Gold or the Euro...IMHO. As the Velosity for the dollar decreases from the long side, so does the price...If the sellers come in, then the dollar will fall even faster, which is great for gold...Also, if this stock market drop goes into a full scale sell-a-thon, we could see some real scrambling by RR & AG to prop up the dollar. Think of Supply and Demand for pricing, as the demand goes down, so does the price. I see the US$ at an APEX here, as the world re-adjusts to the currency situations.

Best of luck.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:18 - ID#372228)
In your post on Silver, notice who is talking silver down...It is an Indian...they have always been bearish on silver...even when it was $4.18. Anyone who follows them will be sorry, sorry, sorry. Buffett is not selling now or later...why should he...when you own the game, they come to don't come to them.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:20 - ID#377367)
Silver, London Reports
Mr. Kamal Naqvi, an analyst with Macquarie Equities was quoted saying, "You are obviously seeing some investment buying amid talk that is connected with Buffets exit strategy, with the idea being to run the prices higher, probably well above $6.00
Mr. Naqvi then states he saw no fundamental reasons for silvers rally.
Okay, lets interpret Naqvi assessment Uncle Warren is getting out so thats why silver is going up.
Well, really the funds are pushing prices up so they can get out on top.
Mean while these so called funds are expending $$$$ to push the price up.
Ok, I get it all now,
The fact of the matter is, this Joker is passed off as some one who knows whats going on but is at a loss to explain whats happening.
His quote of not knowing any fundamental reasons for silvers advance is truly laughable.
This obvious does not come as a shock to most people at the Kitco site. However, the fact that they advance this crap and this person as a supposed expert insults your intelligence.
Don Paul, former green beret had the right discription of an expert "ex as in has been, pert as a drip under pressure.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:22 - ID#251166)
@ trader vic re. Indian silverbear mouthpiece
Excellent observation! To what extent do you think the market gives credence to such talk?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:24 - ID#251166)
@ Griffon5
I'd say the drip was probably under quite a lot of pressure.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:34 - ID#147201)
Grizz re your 7/22 @ 23:38
You got a point. 10 what? I should have been more sprcific. It appears to me that the coin should be denominated in weight and purity. No currency unit of account. There may have to be some conversion info spread too ??? But it would be more confusing to have to put a currency feature in because if this works it will be in a time where currency is falling. The price tag on merchdise may have to be in grains. IE, go to the store with a basket of currency and come home with a small bag of stuff. May need some help here.However, purchasing power is the dominant theme. Thanx, Charlie

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:36 - ID#372228)
Jonesy - Indians and Buffett
I don't give any credance to the Indians, because they have always been self serving, but, unfortunately they are being quoted in the "Major" publications so all the uninformed experts on Wall Street will follow like lambs to a slaughter...What they don't understand is that this is a VERY SERIOUS situation!!!! Silver is an industrial metal and without the physical silver in fabrication, the whole world starts to grind to a halt. Think about how much it is used and by whom! Then think about how long it takes to get it out of the ground...then think about who has it and who doesn't. Then think about getting it yourself before it's all gone.

Since 1982 I have been trading Silver, we started with over a Billion Ozs of we have 40+ Million left in a warehouse 17 years. I don't know about you, but that scares me.....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:42 - ID#258427)
Trader_Vic...what is your
forcast for silver over the next week/month/year??

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:44 - ID#35571)
Remember when...
just days ago when silver just sat there in such a narrow range while gold bounced up and down. Looks like we've traded.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:48 - ID#26467)
In my previous posts silver to be in a cyclical up swing since
June to top out in the third week of September.Critical
numbers were 5.00 and the resistance area of 5.60/5.80.
Silver will make a nice run when it comes into sync with gold
next week and platinum end of this week.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:50 - ID#212197)
Silver: For those who are long
The fact that silver is shooting up in price and the COMEX Warehouse stocks are constantly going down indicates that the silver market returned to it's own supply/demand based logic and went out of control of the manipulators.

If this conclusion is right, and I think it is, there follows logically that 1 ) the price will further go up and
2 ) this cannot be a short term episode.
I'll stay long ( I had bought two December call options when the price was at $5.05 ) and wait until it the price reaches what ??? I think I'll sell one option when the price reaches $7.50 ) .

There is one more argument for why to trust this move north as a long term move: when WB bought his 130 million ounces last year warehouse stocks were much higher. That means, much smaller people are able now to play the game he showed the world to play, with much less risk. I'm sure these people are out there. And they'll help to drive the price up for quite a while.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:56 - ID#251166)
@ Cyclist
Thanks for the response re. silver. To what extent do you see the other metals decoupling from the Yen? Or are you seeing a dollar slide?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 12:58 - ID#412273)
gold/yen/bond carry trade
someone on SI posted an question that asked if a central bank bought gold and boosted the price to $500/oz, would that cause the gold carry trade to be unwound and therefore cause the yen carry trade to be unwound.

The poster suggested that it would take a lot less money to boost the gold price to $500 than directly buying yen. Any comments?

Let the hedege funds support the yen.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:03 - ID#35571)
to yank the DOW levers. Down she goes. Look out below!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:08 - ID#35571)
Look at that!
There's a bunch of guys out back with knives and pitchforks and clubs and torches and stuff. They're all waiting to see if goblin is coming over to play today.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:08 - ID#252150)
Some idiots can't spell interference
and don't know the difference between a turtle & a tortoise.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:17 - ID#431263)
DOW ( N ) 130! Mike McCurry OUT! Couldn't stand the heat any more! : )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:18 - ID#317193)
How many DOW 9000 parties can you have?
Not enough!


(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:22 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:23 - ID#372228)
Bill_D - Silver Future
I echo ALBRICH_A's privious post ( right before this ) and add that this is the second major wave up from the first wave starting at $4.18. This is usually a very strong wave ( wave 3 ) , but not as strong as wave 5...for those of you who follow Elliott Wave Theory. Technically speeking, I take one resisance level at a, IMHO, use $5.75 as a base support and $6.24 as resistance. If we continue thru this, I see new highs above the $7.80 previously hit...I have not set a time on this because we are dealing with a lot of unknowns, but the analysis should be good.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:26 - ID#252150)
Rhody@The Cdn$ is falling because it's under siege by attack dog hedge funds
in a concerted effort by big U.S. business & the USG to steal our natural reources. They recently took over Northstar Energy, one of our best energy Cos. They're using the artificial, undeserved strength of the $U.S. to plunder small economies globally.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:27 - ID#431263)

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:28 - ID#263184)
ALL: I find the assumptions as to WB's intentions to exit silver
justifying the move up to be mystifying. Why would the price go up if a number of people were thinking WB is going to exit at $6 or so? For that matter, why would CBs and the Swiss talk about selling gold before they sold it? Seems to me that people are thinking in reverse. With a 18 year bear market and very little overhang of supply, why would anyone in their right mind be actively thinking about exiting? Silver has a very long run ahead of it and these prices will look cheap in a year simply because the supply/demand fundamentals are extremely favorable. It's only when the average person gets complacent need one look for the exits and it is very likely that that will be from a much higher price.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:29 - ID#35571)
more than one ship going down

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:39 - ID#26467)
The DX trading band 100 and 102 hasn't been broken.If the dollar breaks 100 we'll see a breakdown in the treasuries as well.
Longterm agri cycles bottoming in the same time frame.
Interesting times

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:39 - ID#333127)
to James
You have to ask yourself why they let us get away with the plunder, I don't understand it.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:43 - ID#333127)
Gold stks down again with Dow, not a good sign.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:45 - ID#57232)
Thanks - I will learn by watching what you do.
trader vic: I think I see your point. I certainly will follow the monetary velocity. Did you mean that the velocity would go up or down if dollars are returning in droves? I would guess that it would go down, as the sale of foreign treasuries would increase the monetary base. Do I have that right?
By the way, can't AG pull a slight of hand, and 'roll over' the treasuries into our national debt? Presto -- no inflation -- at least for the current administration. Fascinating how that national debt is like sweeping the dust under the rug for some poor soul to find years later.
By the way, I have decided to hold on to my silver stocks -- long term -- years if necessary. Your point of billions of oz of silver now being millions of oz is highly suggestive. All we need is a significant upturn in the price of silver, and more silver will disappear. Any idea how much Indian demand for silver has dropped?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:52 - ID#57232)
All markets heading south
All: This is as expected. Spouse just told me that morning paper headlines said something about AG saying markets would head down. Gold equities, like it or not, will follow the markets down - at first. My intuitive feeling is that this is not the big one -- not at least till the fall -- but that opinion is worth just what you paid for it.
McCurry leaving makes me think that WJC fortunes may be waning, too. If the markets head south, WJC will be history, and so will Janet Reno.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:52 - ID#242300)
The Bill and Bob show
Clinton: Hey, Bob, about another round of intervention to get this here market a goin again?
Rubin: Which currency do I start with first Bill, there all down?
Clinton: Start with my favorite, China.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:55 - ID#252150)
Rube@To the victor goes the spoils of war & you have won the paper fiat
war-temporarily...but your turn will come.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:57 - ID#251166)
@ trader_vic, Gollum, All Silverbugs
Just heard from a broker buddy heavy resistence at $5.85ish. Haven't heard this number before; thought ( as you mentioned, trader_vic ) mid-$5.70s was the near resistence. Are we looking at some profit-taking at that level ( 585 ) ? What d'ya see?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 13:59 - ID#43460)
jonesey, comments re silver
Considering silver is difficult. I'm still waiting to buy the ( real? ) bottom. I seriously doubt its going to the moon. I've noted that SSC has bumped up to 1 today though ( sorry I can't get through to yahoo today so can't post its chart ) . I will hold on until there are favorable volume numbers in a topping silver price spike, preferably over 10,000,000 shares, then sell half my SSC. I hope to make some money this year but next year is fine too.IMHO

Standard disclaimer applies. I'm merely discussing my own portfolio, not anyone elses.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:02 - ID#287129)
Food and grains
In their quest to keep a lid on the price of commodoties, the manipulators have apparently sent many farmers deep into debt.

Just today I learned that a number of farmers in North Dakota cannot make money on farming this year because of the low price for their products. One farmer allegedly lost $60.00 per acre - in other words, folks, this farmer had to PAY to work rather than deriving any income from his work!

Needless to say, if the price of food and produce is not high enough to support the farmers who produce these goods, HOW CAN WE HAVE FURTHER DEFLATION??? Unless the price of goods inflates soon to a realistic level, we won't have as many farmers growing the goods...and that will only make the goods scarce, which will drive the price UP beyond realistic levels.

Perhaps the huge funds that keep driving the price of commodities down might be hurting all of us in the long run...? What do you think? Frankly, the thought of many farmers moving away from their farms is somewhat scary for our future. The demand for food certainly isn't going to go down unless some catastrophe kills off a large part of the population; so I believe that the general market forces of supply and demand should dictate the price of commodities - whether they be edible goods, oil, or precious metals.


John Disney__A
(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:05 - ID#24135)
gold is good
To all ..
Despite fall in jse-gold index
of 49 points .. Dbn deep harmony
randfontein were untouched ..
Rangy also seems okay ..
Disney first law puts gold at
41250/141.5 = 291.5 but it is well
above that presumably pushed a bit
by silver.
I think the shortists can find
better targets now than gold ..
despite the low lease rate ..
I feel encouraged .. thats not
always a good sign

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:11 - ID#242300)
If AG is right and we are headed for a big corrective cycle in the market, will any of us be able to access our money, no matter were it's invested? If everyone runs ( ON BANKS,MARKETS, ECT.. ) for the exists, the exist will get jammed, just before they close the doors. ouch!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:11 - ID#251166)
@ gagnrad
Thanks! Hope you make some money.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:15 - ID#252127)

Gut feeling says that gold is going to break the yen/dollar curse and when the uptrend in gold becomes evident much fiat will be exchanged for gold, Japan will wake up -- perhaps to late, but awake they will.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:22 - ID#43460)
Skip re farm commodities
What you're seeing should prove interesting. It may give more pressure for the small farmers to sell out to the corporate megafarms, more foreclosures, a dip in land prices, more pleas to Washington to give more loans, cause more government buying, further trade imbalances, a whole host of dominoes falling! IMHO

President Bill ( his monitary policy, not his name ) Clinton recently announced a huge program to buy grain and stabalize prices - sorry I lost the URL - so this cascade is already starting. IMHO

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:22 - ID#377196)
You are right on the money with what the hedge funds are doing.
This is what happens in a fiat money system. The money people get
big britches and think they can do anything they want to. And they
can!!!Who is to stop them. The party on wall street has been so
great for people; who wants it to stop? This is why all booms go

But bust it will and big time. I bet all those baby boomers lose
more on the downside than they ever thought possible.

Just like some of us GO GOLD investors. I am one of them.

But I am not going to get mad. I am going to get even. I won't buy
stocks until they can't give them away and then I will wait some
more. Microsoft under 10. Count on it!

Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:41 - ID#377196)
Question for anyone about Investment bankers
There was an article I read ( can't remember which one ) that talked
about Investment bankers. That was a term I heard in college many years
ago and knew an economics grad student who went to work for one of
them. He said that they were different from the regular banking system
and would be the main powers in the financial world.

You know my feelings about "the obvious" not being the place to
look to make profits or to try and find out what is going to happen.
So in general what this article was saying is that the investment
bankers are buying hand over fist resource stocks, commodities and
anything else that is "real".

All the media talks about is the Central Banks. I mean it is
Greenspan this Greenspan that. It seems to me that this is just
a cover for what is really going on behind the scene.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Thanks GD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:52 - ID#333127)
to James
Your preaching to the choir, I'm on the side of gold. I agree the dollar will fall but wonder why it has been allowed to get where it is.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 14:53 - ID#431366)
Chas - re 10 what?
No need to apologize for not being more specific.
I know you are speaking of grains of Gold.
I agree with not having any currency denomination on the coin.
Unlike arbitrary paper currency
A grain is a set amount of a physical element.
Grains are familiar to anyone familiar with bullet weights.
Though we probably shouldn't publicize that connection
or we would definitely get "The Look"
except from those who like guns and ammo
who, not coincidentally, like Gold and Silver too!
Price tags would be denominated in Gold Grains
which would be easily understood internationally.

PS. Since I should uphold my bearish reputation...
if Gold is successfully demonetized in a cashless society
and the POG went dropped to where Silver was a bit ago.
Then the 10 grain coin would be worth 10 cents in US$.
A thin Gold dime.
Yes! I would have Gold in my pockets again!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:03 - ID#246224)
Y2K stats businesses and their experiences/activities as of beginning July 1998
40% of businesses surveyed have experienced Y2K related disruptions; of those that have the breakdown occured in

data processing for 87%
financial miscalculations or losses for 62%
logistics or supply chain for 44%
customer services problems 38%

Companies which reported having a "full fledged year 2000 strategy" rose from 20% last December to 86% beginning of July.

Contingincy planning rose from 3% in April of 1998 to 72% at the beginning of July.

Percentage of companies whose orginal cost estimate was to low rose from 82% in December to 87% at the beginning of July.

Percentage of companies expecting to have more than half of their systems compliant by end of 1998 dropped from 85% in April to 81% at the beginning fo July.

Percentage of companies missing 'milestones' in their projects rose from 79% in April to 84% at the beginning of July.

The National Retail Federation October 1997 report:

87% of mid-sized reatilers had non-compliant retail management systems.
65% of all POS and 67% of all in-store hardware sold since 1980 are non-compliant.


Commentary: "Where there's smoke there IS fire."

Most companies did not have a plan and hence had no inventory let alone remediation occuring until the first two quarters of 1998.

Contingency planning increase from 3% to 72% indicates that most of the companies which have started late know they will not finish ( and expect that their vendors will not finish either ) , so they are planning on failures. This is a big increase in 3 months, don't you think?

Management can't put an accurate price on this before they know exactly what must be fixed. They always low ball it. This means that upper level management does not know how bad it is until later. The intitial 'estimates' inform their 'no problem' news, until later in the process when they really find out what is going on.

Project plans and milestones are being developed based on what must be accomplished rather than what can be accomplished, hence are unrealistic and will consistently fail due to this bastardization of the process. A result of this is that an appropriate level of triag will not occure at the right time so time and resources will be wasted trying to meet an unrealistic schedule.

The number of firms which doubt that 1/2 or more of their systems will be compliant by the end of 1998 rose from 15% to 19% in 3 months. I suppose that these firms are the ones who started earliest. Expect these numbers to go up at a greater than arithmatic rate. The Firms which only started in first half 1998 have not yet figured out what they do not know. They base their responses on the 'project plan' rahter than the project reality.

The SEC reported that 65% of the reporting firms ( 9000+ SEC filers ) were not out of the assessment and inventory phase of their projects as of filing Q1Y98.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:03 - ID#57232)
Janet Reno (re)considers Independent Counsel decision
All: I think she knows to get out of the kitchen when it gets too hot.

Please splice together, and change first letter to h.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:06 - ID#377196)
The dollar was allowed to get this high because:

If US corporations do not grow they die because of pensions,
interest payments, etc.

Because there is not enough growth left in the US, these
companies have to grow abroad.

But other countries have the same idea and don't want us taking
their business away from them.

In the past countries like Rome would send out the troops to
plunder the people around them. Now we send the bankers.

They make loans which the countries cannot possibly pay back
due to corruption, or growth that is too fast. Then at the right
time we get the currency traders to attack these foreign countries.

That drives down their currencies relative to ours and then
we send in the investment bankers, IMF, corporations to pick up
the bargains. "Kinda cool, don't you think?"

Tolerant1: The IMF head honcho is all yours. Please make
video for all to enjoy for eternity!!!

Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:06 - ID#147201)
Grizz your 10 what?
A new dimension. No matter which way gold goes, it may be the only thing that buys something. Same for silver- it would definitely come in as a matter for "change". The "public" doesn't know yet, but the example of beanies shows their ability to "get on board". Many thanx for your help here, Charlie

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:20 - ID#35571)
Prices move up in spurts. Someone gets some bullish news and buys, more people get the news and buy. Enough buying and shorts cover. Eventually the buying dries up and the shorts get covered ( except for the very brave or very foolish ones ) . The rise levels out, maybe even falls a little as some take profits.

What ever level it gets to is where the armchair analyists say there is resistance. If there was a large move they say there was heavy resistance.

That's what happened today.

Tonight everyone will re-evalutate. They'll look to see what happened with COMEX warehouse stocks. Some funds will be looking to see what went up today, they'll see silver moved. Perhaps there'll be some overnight action.

Tomorrow there will either be a fresh and bigger spurt, or a sell off depending on how things pan out tonight.

If there is a fresh spurt, the armchair guys will say we broke thru the resistence, but we are really in more or less uncharted territory for the moment.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:23 - ID#377196)
Let me add to my last post there words from John K. Galbraith
from his latest interview at age 89:

"We should always bear in mind that, as is happening now in
East Asia, the pecular genius of the IMF is to bail out those most
responsible, and extend the greatest hardship to the workers, who
are not responsible."

Traitors to humanity all.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:23 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum, re. Silver
Appreciate the hand-holding. I'm not much used to being on the profit side of my trades.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:24 - ID#24563)
Japan dumping treasuries?
Rumors of US selling treasuries on behalf of BOJ.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:26 - ID#212323)
Here's a thought...Meeshel Kamdeesoo ( Mikey Camdessus ) needs to go the way of the last Cuervo Central shaman. You've done it know the proceedure...

On another note, the USPS is soon to release a First Class stamp honoring the Klondike Gold Rush...rugged dude being pulled by sled dogs...really nice piece of work. I'll use one on you when the day arrives.

got Pieci Lati?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:28 - ID#333127)
to Gold Dancer
Not fair, but who said it ever would be. I was taught fair play and thats how I think. Obviously it's good to be on the winning side but I do recognize the failings of what is going on.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:29 - ID#431263)
DOW ( N ) 150! AND PLUNGING!Berkshire Hathaway now at $71,000 down from $80,000. Not even silver can save it! : )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:30 - ID#431263)
DOW(N) 170!
Where's the PPt when ya' need 'em?

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:31 - ID#349183)
Wow! Dow just dropped 50 points in 1 minute...
Yikes! That musta hurt somebody. Glad it's not me!

Go Gold!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:36 - ID#289357)
I'm posting this because a number of others on the forum have been trapped ( as I have ) in the mania of Beanie Babies.

My wife called this morning to inform me that the maker of the Beanie Babies ( TY, Inc. ) is now mass-marketing them ( DIRECT ) through the QVC cable shopping chanel in the U.S., with the capability of reaching 60 MM cable customers.

Hmmmmmmmmm. It must be near the top for Beanies, says I.

And then... she informed me that she had thought the same thing, and had just sold her hoard of Beanies to a local dealer for $4000 ( at a very substantial profit ) ......

Perhaps the top of the Beanie mania = top of the stock market??


Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:36 - ID#212323)
Who needs them?!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:37 - ID#431366)
The Gold Dime - a new paradigm ;-
weighing 10 grains and worth 10 US cents ( post Y2K )
would be worth one hour of labor like in the late 1800's.
and 48 of those "dimes" ( 1ozt ) would be a week's pay.
Were these the "good old days"?
The answer depends on whether you had wealth or not.
We may return to these "good old days" after Y2K.
Having some Gold would make it easier.

On another note:
As long as Gold miners make US$15 or so per hour
Gold will never get above US$1000 per ounce.
As the real purchasing power of Gold rises
there will be lots of mines opening or re-opening.
Mining seawater for Gold would become feasible.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:37 - ID#434108)
the new, universal standard for money: "Chinese-crazy Condoms"

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:39 - ID#431263)
Time to call my congressman. This is Un-American! : ) Market internals SUCKIN' AIR! Sell programs takin' over! Ya' can't fool them computers--until 01/01/00! : ) 214 NEW LOWS!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:41 - ID#287193)
@gagnrad re: 14:22..Clintin on real audio today about support..
for export of grains and prices:

you need real audio!
but Clinton does not support:


(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:42 - ID#431263)
Right now it looks like WB!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:43 - ID#410198)
Hey remember when I said the Dow would plunge last week again last month also said it in May,April,
Febuary,January....1997,1996,1995,1994....I was right,now for my next prediction....:- )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:45 - ID#30116)
The question is...
What is the 'reason' for the decline? Is it the disappointing earnings of a few companies or is something more ( like Clintons press secretary resigning? )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:45 - ID#431263)
At the beach?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:46 - ID#350179)
Where's the beta?
DOW -2.1% XAU -3.2% I smell paper burning.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:48 - ID#431263)
Even AOL is plungin'! Would hate to be long goin' into this looooong summer weekend!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:49 - ID#30116)
AND (in case you hadn't noticed)
The metals have not reacted well and the mining shares.... Be careful for what you wish, you just might get it...

Now, if AG comes out and says that he SEES inflation, that will be a different story.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:50 - ID#251166)
ALL, re. COMEX Warehouse numbers
What's the url? Many thanks!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:50 - ID#431263)
Money flows movin' OUT! And the whole host of evils this illustrious group has been rantin' about for over a year!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:51 - ID#431366)
A week's pay
For a lot of us working two jobs, 48 hours a week
at US$6 per hour totals US$288 - about one ounce of Gold.
That still works out to one new 10grain Gold Dime per hour.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:51 - ID#217268)
Beanie Babbies !!
When the story of the greatest bull market of all time for stocks is eventually written, Beanie Baby prices will have said to have peaked. And so, beanie babbies will have joined tulips and God-knows-what-else as metaphors for a market top. Just when that top forms is anyone's guess. We'll just have to watch the price of beanie babbies.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:52 - ID#353204)
And this afternoon's most vociferous ticker.
Buckin for a promotion, Cheeze?

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:57 - ID#349183)
@panda RE: reason
Truly... That IS the question. Why equities down now? Clinton losing another member of his entourage sounds ( to me ) like a rat deserting the good ship "immorality". Coupled with declining corp earnings, Y2K fears, AG's spooky comments, increasing bankruptcies, global economic problems, spiraling trade deficit, Starr report due soon, and on and on...

Maybe it's just a bit of everything, kinda like a soup; A poisonous soup for equities.

But: Is the patient just sick, or is it at death's door?

I haven't the wisdom to discern that, though others here may have some inkling.


MG ( This we gold market watch together yes, new? ) ( Go Gold! )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:57 - ID#434108)
blood-bath in stocks/in-case not recognized yesterday, these stocks show where DJIA is headed--south
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 18:45
goldfevr ( the new holocaust, continues.... ) ID#434108:
Liz Claiborne
Ralston Purina
Oakwood Homes
Computer Associates

when will we ever learn ....

July 23rd:

As the bear-market, in U.S. stocks, and bonds,
writes another paragraph,
in it's new, unfolding bear chapter......

there is still the possibility...
of one last up-side rally.....and

all is well...
that ends

in the post-script

and in the dust & rubble of
a civilization
gone a-wry

we will look
and dig
down deep

and we will find

the seeds
of civilization's

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:57 - ID#431263)
Herr Hepcat!
NAW! Already been there/done that! Just like to see the paper boys suffer like us hard guys have had to for the last 16 years!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 15:58 - ID#257148)
Distribution in the Beanie Baby market. Silverbaroness is out at the top of the market!
I wonder how far this hysteria has travelled. We know nothing, nothing of this Beanie Baby Mania in NZ. Did it reach Stralia? S Africa? Canada? Europe? or was it just one of those merkan fads?

Don't get me wrong, I love fads. This one never popped its head up here. Now we are about to get infected with "Teletubbies" a Brit fad.

I still want a Feral Cheryl doll, Nick@C. Any ideas where I can corner the Feral Cheryl Market?

Feral Cheryl is a "re-worked" Barbie, kinda like she's been in the body shop, if ya know what I mean, she is dirty, flousy and has pierced body parts, dresses in rags. Built in Stralia.

"I like my women a little on the trashy side." Jerry Jeff Walker

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:03 - ID#242325)
Market Musings
Real bubble trouble today. Unfortunately gold shares getting pounded as well. But the gold shares are very close to a final trough; anyone want to guess how much downside the Dow has from here. Steve Kaplan's projection of Dow 7,000 by fall looks like a good bet.

Interesting that bonds did not rally today despite the market's slide. A good omen for POG if it continues.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:05 - ID#316193)
@Panda -- Here's The CBS Take on Today's DOW

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:08 - ID#242325)
bubble trouble
The fact that the reason for today's market slide is not obvious makes it all the more ominous

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:08 - ID#431263)
LOOK OUT TOMORROW! Bulls better hope for a lot of PPT intervention in the Globex session!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:10 - ID#43349)
Is there some way I can short beanie babies?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:10 - ID#251166)
Japan's Election Friday
Obuchi the favorite, though not the favored


Obuchi Builds Big Lead Over LDP
Rivals, Lacks Majority
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi has built a
strong lead over his two rivals for the Liberal Democratic
Party presidency, shows a poll of the 413 eligible voters by
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Obuchi already has some 180
committed votes, against about 90 for Health and Welfare
Minister Junichiro Koizumi and 60 for former Chief Cabinet
Secretary Seiroku Kajiyama. He may not be able to attract the
207-vote majority needed to claim the leadership on the first
ballot in Friday's election, however.

All 366 LDP Diet members and 47 prefectural party
representatives will vote in the party election. If none of the
three obtains a majority on the first ballot, a run-off vote will
be held between the two leaders. Since the LDP commands a
majority in the lower house of the Diet, its new president will
become Japan's next prime minister.

Obuchi can claim, in addition to almost all 91 members of the
faction he heads, significant support from other large LDP
factions, including the 83-strong group led by former Prime
Minister Kiichi Miyazawa. Koizumi, whose main support
comes from the 87 members of the faction he belongs to,
appears certain to finish no worse than second in the initial

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Thursday morning edition )

* * * * *

Japan Inc Views Kajiyama As Best
Choice To Lead Nation
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Japanese business executives and market
insiders want permanent tax cuts and efficient disposal of bad
loans, whoever becomes Japan's next prime minister, a
Wednesday survey of 60 such individuals by The Nihon
Keizai Shimbun shows. At least half the respondents
expressed hope Seiroku Kajiyama, former chief cabinet
secretary, will win the job, mostly citing his "effectiveness"
and "economic policy."

Its majority in the House of Representatives makes it
inevitable that whoever the Liberal Democratic Party elects as
its president will be named prime minister. The LDP
presidential ballot is slated Friday.

Out of seven options on economic policy, respondents cast 55
votes ( multiple votes allowed ) for permanent tax cuts, 45 for
disposal of bad debts, 26 for administrative reform, 16 for
revision of plans for financial restructuring, and 15 for
revision of the fiscal structural reform law.

Thirty-three respondents ( single votes only ) named Kajiyama
as their preferred candidate to succeed Prime Minister
Ryutaro Hashimoto. Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi garnered
11 votes and Health and Welfare Minister Junichiro Koizumi
received 9. Among Kajiyama supporters, there were 40
( multiple ) citations favoring his "effectiveness" and 37 his
"economic policy."

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Thursday morning edition )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:11 - ID#340404)
to see if I,m still alive and kicking

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:11 - ID#434108)
'what's the
This is the answer - the answer is in the question:
We neeed never know
the "reason" - 'why'...
a market is doing/about-to-do..
what it is......about.... to do...

We only need to know WHAT it is going to do
for this is what enables us to make money.

Knowing 'WHY' it does, or is about to do
what it is .....doing...
is just so much diversion, illusion, and bs.

Charts are a more-focussed way to seek to know 'what' is happening/about-to-happen.

Most so-called fundamentals, comments, and
verbiage ( -including mine ) ....
are just so much hot-air...

full of sound & fury...
( in most cases )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:12 - ID#242325)
Dow 10,000?
Looks like we may not get that final blowoff to Dow 10,000 after all. I suspect Dow 10,000 will be to this bull what Dow 3,000 was to the 1986-87 bull -- that elusive final target that kept many from selling in time.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:12 - ID#350179)
Here I go again
Placed my bet at 15:42 ( long side ) .
If XAU breaks 64.1 I'm out again... ( this may be a real short-term thing... ) Stupid stupid stupid XAU dipster. ( me )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:12 - ID#431263)
BA gettin' clobbered didn't help! But the bottom line is that the computers all recognized the SELL signal and did as they were taught to!
A triumph of human ingenuity and engineering--till 01/01/00! : )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:13 - ID#43349)
Do you think I yanked the DOW lever too hard, or should I give them another pull for good measure?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:13 - ID#434108)
the question- the reason//Panda@15:45
my previous post was in response to this post

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:13 - ID#410198)
Just heard a report that one of the reasons for the plunging Dow,Mike McCurry if
the Press guy for the WH is worth 200 much would Robert Rubin be worth.....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:14 - ID#410198)
Just heard a report that one of the reasons for the plunging Dow,Mike McCurry if
the Press guy for the WH is worth 200 points...what will happen when Rubin quits...again

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:15 - ID#242325)
selling climax
Final selling climax in gold share indices probably will be seen next week.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:18 - ID#431263)
THE HEPCAT IS BACK! Soon to be a ragin' GOLD BULL! Heh...Heh..heh! : )

The bootom line is that the S&P hit a PE of 30 last week--THE MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN US HISTORY! And earnings are bein' lowered all over the place and AG told us that they're goin' even LOWER! BIG MONEY said,"GET MY @SSETS OUT NOW!! NEXT STOP AFTER BOND BREAKS DOWN WILL BE GOLD!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:22 - ID#253418)
Not so bad
Dispite the sell off in the XAU which in part may be index related, notice gold was only off 30 cents along with PT about the same. HGMCY UP!! SSC UP!! SWC down to the break out point at 28 1/4. Not so bad.

CNBC just had a chart of the A?D line including both NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, about to make new lows.

A few more days and a few more Japanese politicians and the price of gold and the move in yen just may decouple.

Wonder if there won't be a change in the plan to let Japanese investors/institutions/postal savings invest in the US markets come, what was it , December. That could really pull the plug on the DOW etc.

Now if the silver stocks can just drop one more time..... seems finally somebodies are listening....

WB selling silver???? AGAIN.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:24 - ID#43349)
I'm sure we'll see DOW 10000, the question is where to put the decimal point.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:29 - ID#434108)
Silver's Upside move: one of numerous "reasons" identified last week-end...
Date: Sun Jul 19 1998 22:33
goldfevr ( Silver's net-short Commercials//Sam__A@22:16 ) ID#434108:
Sam, et al,
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:29 - ID#431263)
Anybody wann'a buy some illiquid small cap stocks? : )

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:30 - ID#349183)
Hey, I liked that neat-o stairstepped effect on the markets. DOWN, up, DOWN, up, DOWN...
By all means, pull the lever again and paint us another pretty picture.

Just don't move "crash" lever yet - I need to sell my condos first.
Let's leave that one 'till October. Thanks.

Oh, and if you find some time, could you jiggle the Gold lever... I think it's stuck again.

MG ( Go Gold & Silver! ) ( We watch this new Hepcat together, no? )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:31 - ID#242325)
Looks like I got it wrong about bonds not rallying. Sorry guys! But POG now up 30 cents on access.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:31 - ID#210127)
Silver futures continue to climb

up another 3.5 cents to 5.84..

Not too late to get into SSC at the opening Friday...If the futures continue to climb out....

Dow now acting like some of my gold stocks performed in the past.

go silver...go ssc

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:32 - ID#43349)
It's a wrap
From the news center:

Market Wrap for Thursday, July 23
It appears that the markets' slide is going to last at least a little while longer...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:33 - ID#402148)
ASTRO BOYS say we hit bottom here in metals.....
top in dollar.

This is the day Martin Armstrong and Arch Crawford both have cited as the day to begin the bull market in gold ( the bottom ) .


(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:35 - ID#210127)
Don't look now...but...

Gold futures just went positive ...up 30 cents to 284...will wonders never cease....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:35 - ID#288295)


Trust me on this one - you have not missed an important life experience. However, it was
not just a Merkan thing - has crept into
the UK and Canada, where they have export
controls on certain Beanies, limiting the
number which can cross the international
border. Really stupid, eh? $200, $300, $500 ( OR MORE ) selling price for some single items ( which probably cost $0.10 to make in the


Short them if you can find somebody to borrow them from. There is no shortage of stock to
replace them when the price drops. However,
the people who invest ( if that word can be
stretched a great deal ) in BB are just like
the ones who are buying into the new paradigm of the stock market. Most will not sell ( or
lend ) , will ride them all the way to the
bottom, and then complain about how they were snookered.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:37 - ID#43349)
@Mountain Goat
You noticed that too. That was cool, sort of like the way a sheet of paper floats to the ground when you throw it out of a skyscraper window on a hot breezeless New York afternoon.

I need to fiddle with the silver a little more before I hit the gold. That way I jump off Hecla onto Homestake at just the right time.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:37 - ID#210127)
oops...make that $294


(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:37 - ID#143182)
Open Loop - CQ! CQ! Where ya been?
OL - Ya Ag is up! I'm moving to a 3rd world country where I can double
my net worth in fiat currency overnight and live like a king!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:39 - ID#242325)
More Musings
FDPMX down just 0.9% today despite plunge in XAU. A good omen that the bottom is near methinks.

BTW, that Warburg Pincus Japan Growth Fund I mentioned a few weeks ago doing great. Up about 5% since I discussed it, and up 0.5% today despite drop in yen and Nikkei. The guys reunning this fund really know what they are doing. Seems that nothing less than a total smash in the yen and the Nikkei can push this fund down sharply.

Now if only I could find a gold fund that acts like this.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:39 - ID#57232)
My hat is off to J.K. Galbraith
GoldDancer: I like the way he thinks, and he described the IMF problem in a nutshell. Their function seems to be to punish the innocents while they bail out the culprits who created or contributed to the problem in the first place. They seem to be more effective when they run out of money.
I got a kick out of AG's comments the other day. He said essentially the same thing about the IMF -- that they were ineffective.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:39 - ID#431263)
SLOW DOWN, you're movin' too fast! Gotta' make this bull scheiss la-ast!
Slickin' down the troubled road, sellin' stock and buyin' go-gold! FEEEELIN' GROOOOOVY!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:39 - ID#346277)
Nick, Sharefin, downunder got any info on Ashanti?
Hi guys, placed an order couple of weeks ago ASL, NYSE at 6.25 closed today at 6.3125. Should I run? has this mine been flooded or what? Haven't seen many PM stocks crash below their 52 week low yet, except NEM any info would be appreciated, thanks W.R.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:45 - ID#434108)
Japan selling U.S. Treasuries//Woody@15:24
Can you provide any URL, additional info. ?

Nothing came-up, in your additional-text-link.

Current Barron's interview-article: "The Next Wave"
offers bearish interpretation for Bonds,
based on COT/Commitment of Traders...
one of the most important technical/charting indicators/patterns
of objective research.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:49 - ID#434108)
Woody @ 15:24/Treasurues being sold by Japan
I'd appreciate any specifics/urls, etc.

Mad Hatter__A
(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:49 - ID#284230)
Philosopher's Stone For Sale
Turns Pb into Au instantly! Just add heavy H20

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:50 - ID#242325)
FDPMX down 2.7% today. That 0.9% dip occurred yesterday. But still expect a bottom shortly.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:50 - ID#57232)
FDPMX is down less because of the South African Golds
Old Gold: The South African Gold stocks are already in a rally due to the recent devaluation of the Rand. We have John Disney to thank for alerting us. The US gold stocks will rally later -- no devaluation of the dollar yet.
By the way, FSAGX is now Fidelity Gold Fund. They changed the fund rules so that they could buy South Afican Gold stocks. Smart. Don't know how much they have yet -- apparently not enough.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:52 - ID#43349)
Silver lease rates
Climbed to 4-5% today, were 3.5% yesterday, 2.4% the day before. All up from the 1.5-2% the last few weeks.

If COMEX stocks are down some more we'll have gasoline on the fire.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:53 - ID#340404)
Take heart you long-suffering goldbugs.
The American's eunuchs, namely the Arab, the Japanese, the Canadian, the Aussie, the Belgian, the Swiss and maybe even the Argentine among others , will soon rebel against his irresponsible strong $ policy.

The Arab, in particular will give the American a valid reason to worry about accellerating inflation in his economy, where none exists at the present time. The Jap will recall the American's massive debt owing to him and will not be swayed by the American's higer interest rate. The rest of the eunuchs will reverse their disastrous policies of selling off their Gold reserves and will in turn sh-t on the US$ as it swirls down the toilet of doom. Encouraged by this turn of events the rest of the world will dump its US$ reserves and replace them with Gold, Yen and Euro currencies. Net result...the poor american citizen will pay the ultimate price for the American's over-exuberant and unrelenting attempt to rob wealth from the rest of the world by promoting his unsustainable strong $ policy. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE WORLD'S RAGE with the American's strong $ policy.

Once his eunuchs stop wiping his ass, the American's over-exuberant stock and bond market party will come to an abrupt end, ( this mild correction is only the beginning ) . This is probably my swan song in this forum but I hope the world receives my message and contemplates on it for all its worth. The American will probably try to silence my critique of his policies but I don't want to leave the wrong impression, I don't have anything against the american people other than the utmost respect and compassion I have for any other world citizen. My beef is with the American, ( the head honcho ( and his sidekick ) who gives the markets a cold when he sneezes ) and his irresponsible pursuit of promoting and propagating a policy that results in increasing world misery and poverty.

Many in this forum will undoubtedly interpret my ravings as an attempt to profit from an increase in the price of Gold. I honestly declare at this time that the full extend of my physical Gold holdings comprise of one Gold chain and a gold Swiss Frank. I also hold a few junior gold exploration stocks that are now worth about 10% of what I paid for them so let's say I'm a long way from profiting from my Gold investments.

Other than that, my concern about the massive robbery of wealth from the world, propagated by a strong US$ at the expense of devaluation of Gold and all other commodities and currencies around the world, is genuine and disconcerting, not only for the poor countries of the world but for the american people, who will suffer the ultimate wrath of the world's anger when the demise of their All-Mighty Buck begins to unfold in ernest, soon.

If I don't post in this forum in the next 10 days you will know that the American's interests have silenced me. Meanwhile Gold bugs, keep the faith, you will be rewarded soon enough.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:53 - ID#242325)
JTF: See my corrected post on FDPMX. And the SA golds were even weaker than the North American golds today -- off nearly 5%.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:54 - ID#57232)
Next time I'll check FSAGX, and FDPMX before posting! I still think FDPMX should perform better, but logic does not always apply.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:54 - ID#43349)
@Mad Hatter__A
Got anything that will turn Au into Pb or Microsoft into anything?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:54 - ID#288186)
I've been out all day. Got back to see all the excitement here at Kitco...
I'm excited about going hiking in the mountains next week, but I'm
bummed about missing the play by plays of what will happen in all
the markets. Hope my cell phone works well!!
Comex warehouse reports..coming up! Silver down some more!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:55 - ID#288186)
Comex Warehouse Totals. Silver down some more!!
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 23

Gold 1,082,288 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 80,892,703 - 678,435 troy ounces
Copper 54,514 + 653 short tons

N/A= Not available.
It's not like the 1.5 mil we saw yesterday, but it's something!!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:56 - ID#350179)
beanie baby bauble bubble

Examples from ads in paper:
82. BEANIE BABY All-Star Pkg w/card, tix stub, pin & program. 2000/best.
90. BEANIE: Rare! Spot, the dog ( w/o Spot ) . Good cond. w/ tag. $2200/obo

( I've omitted the Phone numbers to protect the innocent/delusional )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:58 - ID#432298)
gold bear market.......
I have been in this forum for about 1 1/2 years now and I have yet to see any respectable upside movement in gold. Gold has been in a downturn for a decade and there is no reason ( other than a recession or a war ) to turn it around, and I DON'T see either happening in the near future. Don't get me wrong, I am bullish for gold but it is a sector that is going nowhere until one of the before mentioned happens.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:58 - ID#212323)
My guess ( if history is any guide ) is that the Asian markets will take it on the chin tonight, and to prevent a worldwide bloodbath the PPT will step in tomorrow to shore up the American market prior to Europe's close. That will encourage them to hang tough and paint a rosier picture for afternoon trading in NY. Whether the PPT can keep a reign on things prior to close is anybody's guess. The week is going to finish as one big loser, nontheless, and onyone who purchases on Friday will suffer some serious bouts of buyer's remorse all weekend. Monday could be ugly.

got certs?

the Arrogant one. ;- )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 16:59 - ID#284255)
Y2k Weatherman Report #56
Do you sometimes feel like you're the ONLY person concerned about Y2k?
Do doubting friends, family, and church members make you feel foolish
about your preparedness plans? Well, my friend, you are not alone,
and by this time next year I expect that Y2k will be one of the most
talked about issues in the global press unless a war or stock market
crash occurs first. Be like Noah and ignore the ridicule of those who
don't heed the warnings to prepare an ark for their family. Prepare
now and prepare wisely. Time is running out.

The market for preparedness goods and survival items like non-electric
grain grinders, dehydrated and freeze dried food, and generators is a
very thin market. ( How many people to you know who own a non-electric
grain grinder? ) This means that in normal times the demand for these
items is not very high. With Y2k on the horizon, preparedness
supplies are in high demand, and availability is ALREADY becoming a

Does this mean Y2k will be a worst case scenario? Not at all. The
number of preparing people has *nothing* to do with the outcome of
Y2k. All it means is that a lot of people are fearful enough to take
action. Is this bad? No. Rational fear is a God given response to
help keep you alive. Fear of God is also the beginning of all
knowledge. ( Proverbs 1:7 ) The problem arises when fear becomes fear
mongering, when warnings become overly alarmist, and when wise
preparations become selfish survivalism.

How you prepare for Y2k is a personal issue. My advice has always
been to get right with God FIRST and seek His will in how you should
prepare. Do you need a generator, freeze dried or dehydrated storable
food, and a generator? I can't answer that question for you, but I do
know that if you procrastinate much longer you won't have to ask this
question because these types of niche market preparedness items may
not be available, and I will assure you that due to basic supply and
demand the prices will only increase, probably dramatically.

I'm confident that enterprising entrepreneurs will find ways to create
more supply, but I'm very doubtful supply will catch up with
increasing demand over the next 17 months. The first warning signs of
the rush to prepare have already been posted. Heed these signs. If
you're planning on buying some niche market preparedness goods next
year, or if you're thinking about loading up on dehydrated food
supplies next summer, forget about it. You better start looking for
alternatives now.

I was doubtful the availability and supplies of preparedness goods was
already so tight until I got the following email:


Dear Y2k Weatherman,

I'm a wholesaler with Waltons and we sell at retail. We just went
from a 12 week bucket delivery to "indefinite". This is more
serious then I think you realize. I also buy from several other
companies including Lehmans, Country Living, Emergency Essentials,
etc. I have contacted them personally and they are way, way behind.
Some are so far behind they don't have any idea if they will even be
able to catch up by the year 2000.

I cannot agree with you that supply lines aren't that tight, in
fact, I strongly disagree with you. Furthermore, I'm not saying
there is a shortage, but there is an availability problem. Whatever
is on the shelf is gone in ten minutes. The volume of orders is now
in the hundreds of thousands. We've increased our volume over ten
times and we are quite small.

I can just about guarantee ( in principle of course, since I don't
manufacture the food or the supplies ) that if people wait to place
their orders this winter or late fall ( 1998 mind you ) , that it will
be too late.

I don't believe in scare tactics, thus I don't get on the band wagon
with a lot of the hype and propaganda. I'm only telling you what I
know personally as a supplier and what we are experiencing first
hand. I'm also not nearly concerned about Y2K as the many other
people, probably because I see other things which concern me much
more. I wonder when people catch on that there is more happening
here then Y2K - that will certainly start a widespread panic.



Preparedness food, supplies and equipment
at the best prices in the United States
( 406 ) 293-8121


Y2k Weatherman Comments:

The intention of the Y2k-News is to keep you informed, not scare you
unnecessarily or create unwarranted fear. However, Y2k is not a
joking matter, and I agree 100% with Ray about Y2k being only one of
several major events on the horizon. The difference between all these
other events and Y2k is that WE HAVE A DATE for Y2k.

Y2k is my area of expertise, but the larger global picture is even
scarier. Combine Y2k with the Asian financial crisis, the banking
problems in Japan, the desparate financial situation in Russia, the
tension in the middle east and between Pakistan and India, some very
concerning earth changes, and I think that those who can read the
signs of the times will clearly see that we are on the cusp of some
turbulent times in the very near future.

What does that mean to you? BE PREPARED!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:00 - ID#251166)
COMEX Silver Stocks
Broker buddy says down another 600,000+ oz.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:01 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Is the latest warehouse figures enough to kick start this puppy?
HOPE SO! Fox-Man

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:01 - ID#286284)
@jonesy et all - Silver stocks down ~600,000 ozs

Didn't see this number posted yet so thought I'd toss it in. Was driving when told so can't be more precise than that.

Why didn't I buy more at the bottom? Kick me kick me kick me.

sam__A ( not sam! )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:05 - ID#251166)
Fox man -- Thanks for Comex post; I shoulda scrolled before I scribed.

Gollum -- Okay, okay! We're poised. Tell us all about tomorrow.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:11 - ID#377196)
The wrath of others is why a wise man always checks his own greed!

America is due. I am one and have been very upset about my own
Countries' behavior. Others will get back at us and then we will be
forced to change. What goes around comes around. I have lost much
in my gold stocks and it has been very dificult to keep buying at these
levels. But I will be rewarded when things shift.


Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:11 - ID#377196)
The wrath of others is why a wise man always checks his own greed!

America is due. I am one and have been very upset about my own
Countries' behavior. Others will get back at us and then we will be
forced to change. What goes around comes around. I have lost much
in my gold stocks and it has been very dificult to keep buying at these
levels. But I will be rewarded when things shift.


Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:12 - ID#377196)
The wrath of others is why a wise man always checks his own greed!

America is due. I am one and have been very upset about my own
Countries' behavior. Others will get back at us and then we will be
forced to change. What goes around comes around. I have lost much
in my gold stocks and it has been very dificult to keep buying at these
levels. But I will be rewarded when things shift.


Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:13 - ID#434108)
Silver's Upside//a silent scream 5 days ago
Most calms, before the storm, are missed.

Date: Thu Jul 23 1998 16:29
goldfevr ( Silver's Upside move: one of numerous "reasons" identified last week-end... )
Date: Sun Jul 19 1998 22:33
goldfevr ( Silver's net-short Commercials//Sam__A@22:16 ) ID#434108:
Sam, et al,
This is where charts, pictures, and experience, and 'perspective' come in. All things are
First of all: Silver is ready to 'scream' - to the upside.
Look at Commmercials patterns for the last 4 quarters,
they have just - begrudgingly - "tried" to go back to a net-long
but they don't need to;
they loaded up, already, in 3rd quarter of '97.
Every Commodity Market is unique & individual, as is it's relationship to COT patterns.
You never saw Commmercials in a net-long position in silver
in 3rd quarter of '97; but/and...
if you look at longer term monthly/yearly charts,
you would see that any time Commercials get even to that level
of reduced net-short values, it is bullish.

Every market is an individual market;
esp. if/when you are looking at sensitive timing indicators,
when the objective is short-term execution.

My previous comments have been generalizations;
by nature of the 'communication-means'....
they have to be.

Sources for COT data/charts, are:
Commodity Trend Service ....
Pinnacle Data Corp. NY.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:14 - ID#43349)
I'll say it's something! Probably even mor significant than the 1.5 Mil Oz yesterday. MUCH more significant. The timing is supurb!

Here's all these fund managers. They just got burned on the DOW, the NASDAQ, the S&P, etc. Just barely got thier chestnuts out of the fire. Now they are going to be looking for some way to recoup. What do they see?

They see SILVER! And gosh! Look at that the COMEX stocks are down some more.

It's like getting out there in front of the big wave and paddling like mad. If your timing is good, you get to ride the bonzai pipeline. YAAAHHOOOO!!!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:18 - ID#431263)
Herr Arrogant One!
You a member of the PPT team or what? : ) Your speculation is right on the money! Only THIS time, it MAY not be enough! In the fullness of time, as always! The GLOBAL PRESSURES, with the necessity to keep gold down till the advent of the EURO, are beginning to squeeze the life-blood out of the US economy. We'll obviously be the last to devalue the dollar--BUT WHAT A DEVALUATION IT WILL BE WHEN IT COMES! Because THIS time, it will not be our idea, but the WORLD'S!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:19 - ID#24563)
Full:Euro FX Review: Fed talk rescues yen, stlg up
on UK trade

Updated Thu Jul 23 12:32 ET

London--Jly 23--Rumors late in the European session that the US Federal
Reserve had been selling Treasuries caused US dollar/yen to shed all its
European gains. Previously, the pair had looked well bid after Moody's
announced in Asian trade that it was putting Japan under review for a
possible ratings downgrade.
* * *
Sterling made steady progress north over the session after better-
than-expected UK trade news. News that the Rover car group is to shed at
least 1,500 UK jobs due to sterling strength did little to dampen the tone.
A string of UK govt officials came out to express empathy with UK
manufacturers' concerns over a strong pound, but said economic policy would
not be changed.
At 1445 GMT, the dollar was bid at 141.40 yen from 141.59 at the
open, at 1.7911 Deutsche marks from 1.7891 and at 1.5103 Swiss francs from
Sterling was bid at $1.6429 from $1.6399 and 2.9425 marks from
2.9349. The mark was bid at 0.8435 Swiss francs from 0.8451 and at 78.95
yen from 79.13.
The Fed talk sparked an initial knee-jerk reaction in dlr/yen, on
speculation that the sales were on behalf of the Bank of Japan. If the BOJ
were planning another FX market ambush it might sell some of its Treasury
holdings to give it leverage.
However, the rumored sales were nowhere near the $12 billion the Fed
sold on the BOJ's behalf on Apr 13. Some dealers suggested the sales were
just part of a routine operation. The NY Fed refused to comment on the
Dlr/yen had spiked up in Asia after Moody's placed under review Japan's
foreign currency-denominated debt and bank deposits for a possible
The pair retained a bid tone for most of the European session, but
could not break 142.00, with traders perhaps mindful of the Fed/BOJ joint
intervention around that level on Jun 17.
The market is also looking ahead to Friday's LDP presidential election.
Surveys this week suggest foreign minister Keizo Obuchi has secured between
180-200 votes, not far short of the 207 he needs to win outright in round
Obuchi has been seen as the least market-friendly candidate: he is seen
as an establishment figure in the mold of Hashimoto. But his policy
proposals so far have been positive, including 6 trillion yen-worth of tax
cuts, and if he wins at the first time of asking, it would at least
eliminate the current environment of uncertainty.
Even so, Obuchi is not home and dry yet. Kyodo news agency reported
today that 20 rebel LDP members had met Wednesday night to discuss plans to
derail the Obuchi bid.
Dlr/mark continued to firm, with more bad news out of Russia and benign
inflation figures out of Germany putting more fuel in its tank.
Speaker of the Russian State Duma Gennady Seleznyov said he did not
think the Duma would approve the government's 1999 budget in its current
form. Its failure to do so would severely undermine the government's anti-
crisis package, and even call into doubt the disbursement of the next
tranche of IMF aid--worth $4.3 bln--due in September.
German June import prices were ultra-benign, coming in down 0.9% on the
month, down 2.3% on the year. Provisional West German July CPI came in
largely in line with expectations, posting a 0.2% monthly rise, up 0.9% on
the year.
The Bundesbank sprung no surprises at its last meeting before the
summer recess, leaving rates on hold. Though it did add that it will
increasingly orient policy towards EMU this year, leaving the door open to
a rate hike later on.
Sterling had been braced for another substantial rise in the UK trade
gap, though in the event the news wasn't so bad. The UK's global trade
deficit in May rose to 1.858 bln, up from a revised 1.366 bln in April.
The June Non-EU trade deficit narrowed to 952 million from 1.548 billion in
Sterling bulls breathed a sigh of relief and sent cable through 1.6400
and sterling/mark through 2.94.
The day's other big news came from Rover group which announced it was
slashing at least 1,500 jobs at its UK car plants due to sterling strength.
A spokesman for UK prime minister Tony Blair, chief secretary of the
Treasury Alistair Darling and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown all
expressed sympathy with UK manufacturers' plight in a strong pound
environment, but all said economic policy would not change.
Darling's comments were particularly interesting, given that Treasury
ministers are typically given privileged advance notice of GDP figures,
which are due out Friday. It is unclear whether this had any influence on
his comments, though the market may take note of his remark that the UK
economy is experiencing "difficult times."
The day's other big mover was the Swiss franc. Mark/swiss took a mini-
tumble in afternoon trade as the Russia news hit the market, prompting some
safe-haven Swiss franc buying, originating in New York. US institutional
funds, in particular were noted buying Swiss.
It was business as usual for US dlr/Canadian dlr as the pair set more
record highs. Reports in the Canadian press that former BOC chief Crow
defended the bank's refusal to support the CAD, helped it higher.
Traders discounted talk that the US Fed had called Canadian banks to
inquire about the pair, yet the rumor still saw the pair fall sharply off
its highs. But the setback was brief and it was rallying strongly again
going into the European close. US dollar/Canadian dollar was last bid at
1.4956, from 1.4953. End
Send comments to Internet address:

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:22 - ID#212323)
Gollum...I think you might be confusing things with the INTERNET pipeline :-) ...
"It's like getting out there in front of the big wave and paddling like
mad. If your timing is good, you get to ride the bonzai pipeline.

got ten? ...hang 'em

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:22 - ID#377196)
Sorry about tripple post=my error
took a long time so used stop then entered again.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:23 - ID#434108)
As ANGLY goes
so goes the world
of gold

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:25 - ID#251166)
@ Chrisophilos
Please forgive my impudence, but your reference to American's eunuchs was just a tad jarring -- until I realized you used the term "eunuch" as a synonym for "slave" or "servant." A eunuch is a castrated male. Being referred to as such is potentially offensive and certainly politically incorrect. I stand on behalf of those who can no longer. Respectfully, dj

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:25 - ID#316193)
Ted Butler, If I Re-post One of Your Essays on Silver...
Would you give Kitco some more valued THOUGHTS?

"After 15 long years, silver looks like it's entering the free
market again, where price is the determinant, not some arbitrary
interest rate on a fraudulent financial convention."
Ted Butler, Jan. 18, 1998

Kitcoites know to enter the URL without "en" in golden...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:25 - ID#286253)
@ All Si buffs - When the stock #'s are released
The exchange is supposed to release them by 4:00. Sometimes they are a little late but over the last couple days they have been coming in much earlier - 3:20 yesterday, for example. Don't know if this has any significance at all.

goldfevr - don't mean to be a crank, but haven't you posted that note often enough? The reason I ask is because it was, in a sense, posted in reply to myself and everytime I see it I feel the urge to post my follow-up. Could get silly.

cheers all,

sam__A ( not sam! )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:26 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.46. The 50 day moving average is 30.64.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:28 - ID#212323)
A shot of GoldSchlager at ya, gulped through GOLDEN CHEESECLOTH :) ...
Yep, on that devaluation. Not much to do but stand around looking foolish when the world de-pants ya.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:32 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .229. The 50 day moving average is .247. There have been 25 occasions where the XAU closed in the 67.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #19. The #1 ranking was on August 18, 1986, with a gold price of $376.40, an XAU of 67.55, producing a AUA/AU ratio of .179

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:35 - ID#431263)
JAWOHL! Even purchased a pair for our beloved housepet, Hepcat, and all us enslaved American Kitco eunuchs! : )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:36 - ID#26793)
@ Kitco
Gold/Silver Ratio = 50.57. The 50 day moving average is 55.22

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:38 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages
Spot gold $294.05; spot silver $5.32; XAU 72.58

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:41 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages.
Spot gold $303.64; spot silver $5.57; XAU 81.54, Dow/Gold ratio 27.61

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:42 - ID#434108)
Japan's uncertainty & confusion + 'buy of a life-time'//Woody's recent post
Just as I thought;
and thanks, Woody, sincerely, for the post/your reply.

Seems to me,
the uncertainlty, and negativity, regarding Japan,
and the proverbial
has been milked...
for just about all
it could possibly be worth.

'Money/capital/currency/credit'..... ' flows '
the name of the game
as.... this....
century & millennium

The 'East'
has bowed, bent-toward, and served
the 'West'

long enuf.

Capital flows are reversing
not all at once...

in this time

the 'west'
the 'east'

U.S. Bonds will enter a new bear-chapter,
as will U.S. stocks/markets.

Investments, more-real than such as these,
will garner & generate new bullish strength,
including gold & silver.

And the Nikkei, and the J. Yen,
will perhaps be...
the buy of the century.

Cage Rattler
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:43 - ID#33182)
What is a Beanie Baby? They don't seem to exist in Africa!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:44 - ID#30116)
Talk about hard to get in to!
We've had a brief but violent squall line come through here in Mass. And the 'net doesn't seem to have liked to much either So, in short summary.

Leland -- Boeings troubles have long been known... This should NOT have been such a surprise.

Mountain Goat -- If it were only that simple!

GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD -- I'm not so sure about the money moving out yet. Something called inertia.

goldfevr -- This has been a 'funny' advance in the indexes for the last few weeks. Me thinks 'tis more like a summer squall Although, when the real 'cold front' comes through it should be a dozy.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:49 - ID#431263)
"Nuclear Waste Arrives at Idaho Storage Dump"

"VP Gore Visits Chernobyl Disaster Site"

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:50 - ID#57232)
Thanks -- computer locked up
OldGold: Appreciate your comments. I guess I should be happy that I sold the right gold fund yesterday. Lost less. Don't feel so happy, though. It certainly is frustrating that the gold funds consistently outperform the general equities markets -- on the downside. Perhaps they should add new brokerage categories for gold bugs: negative outperformers, and super negative outperformers. A Gold bug needs the patience of Job.
It does pay to have a good sense of humor -- the news about the world is certainly becoming more ominous.
I now have a very healthy sense of how gold behaves in non-inflationary times -- it is the opposite of how a gold bug thinks. Like Lewis Carroll's 'Through the Looking Glass', or like looking at positrons when you think you are looking at electrons. Everything is inverted. Like the chicken with the prizm glasses that turn the image upside down. Takes a little while before it moves about without bumping into everything.
We just have to wait until the US dollar drops, it seems. Until then I will be watching the commodity price indices for a sign.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:50 - ID#377196)
It sure seems to me that the Nikkei is headed much higher=
25,000 to27,000. The traders have milked all they can for now. Positions
must be unwound to profit so Nikkei is headed up. Gold and Silver
also. Should last 6 to 9 months. Then I will take another look.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:53 - ID#288295)
Cage Rattler

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:55 - ID#431263)
Storm must have cut off your cable this afternoon! CNBC's been crying about the OUTFLOWS from equities all day! Next week will see more of the same--only FASTER!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 17:58 - ID#431263)
GATEWAY DISAPPOINTS!! 38cents versus 44cents anticipated!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:01 - ID#222231)
JTF, re: the IMF and other despicables.
Asia plucked by the powers that be? Who's next? Do you know who wrote this?


"This is precisely the way the Bank of International Settle-
ments and the IMF are operating. Let me say without hesitation
that both these banks are nothing more than bully-boy clearing
houses for the drug trade. The BIS undermines any country that
the IMF wants to sink by setting up ways and means for the easy
outflow of flight capital. Nor does BIS recognize nor make any
distinction when it comes down to what is flight capital and
what is laundered drug money.
The BIS operates on gangster lines. If a country will not
submit to asset-stripping by the IMF, then it says in effect, "Right,
then we will break you by means of the huge cache of narco-dollars
we are holding." It is easy to understand why gold was demonetized
and substituted with the paper "dollar" as the world's reserve
currency. It is not as easy to blackmail a country holding gold
reserves as it is one having its reserves in paper dollars."

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:02 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

This oscillator is showing a lot of strength in this down-plunge.
It would not surprise me to see it hit a low in excess of -15 this time.
Maybe even breaking the -20 line.

Will it, could it be the big one???
Place your bets.

If it is, watch out.
All shares will get washed out/stomped upon, with a tsunami like sell off.
There should be a few more days in this sell-off.
Will the SP500 break important support levels???

Still looking for gold to bottom after a market crash.
Maybe the bottom for gold stocks will occur after the crash.
In July or October???

Extreme high risk period at the moment.
Good time to be short or out of the market.

If 30% of companies fail Y2k how many gold co's will be included in this washout.
Who knows who will be compliant?
The biggest co's will have the hardest time becoming compliant,
And are then still at the mercy of the utilities.

Once the markets understands that 30% of all co's will fail.
Which ones are they going sell off first?
Seems like there will be lots of confusion and panic
When the realization sets in.

Who will be the survivors????????????????

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:03 - ID#288295)
Gold Dancer @ Nikkei

Here's another opinion on the Nikkei ( and
other Asian stock markets ) :

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:12 - ID#57232)
I have as great idea to stop the equities hemorrhage!
Golden Cheesehead: All you need to do is electically disconnect the equities markets from the buyers and sellers! Then those equities prices have no place to leak out to. What a topsy turvey, comlplicated world we live in! Up is down, left is right. Just when you think you understand everything -- that is just the time you need to watch out the most.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:12 - ID#431263)
HERR SILVERBARTON (sorry, couldn't resist :)
Barton has been a very reliable prognosticator of the Asian markets and I belive his ASEAN chart says it all! We're on the verge of OBLIVION if the pink support line we're sittin' on now doesn't hold! I'm bettin' we break it TONIGHT!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:18 - ID#251166)
SILVER: On the verge of true supply and demand?
The last time silver stocks were this low was December 1, 1982 -- at 80,607,616 ounces. Today's silver stocks are at 80,892,703 ounces, less than 300,000 ounces above that distant low point. That day in December '82 ( per some really old charts ) , the price of silver was around $10.40.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:19 - ID#43349)
So, anyway, like I was saying. Prices move in spurts and once you run into "resistance" you have to get new money into the market for the next spurt. So now we have all these gunslinger fund managers looking for some way to recoup. And we've been wiggling the SILVER spinner bait right out there in front of them.

So they take a look and sure enough, COMEX warehouse stocks are down even more. It doesn't take many big time funds hitting the thinly held silver stocks to make a good move.

A good move attracts even more attention. And these guys don't care about earnings or anything. All they care about is UP.

Now if we could start a rumor that the only way the internet can continue to expand is thru major use of silver.....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:20 - ID#431263)
Don't follow your first point ( you mean electrically or eclectically? ) , but agree wholeheartedly with your last point! Everything today is a speculation--including holding a gov't bond or US dollar! A speculator has to be ready to go with the flow even if it violates his most basic and cherished principles! The ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT TODAY IS GOLD!! Eerything else is pure speculation!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:21 - ID#43349)
December '82, eh? What would $10.40 be in 1998 dollars?

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:22 - ID#295111)
XAU bashing
The XAU took a real pounding today considering gold only went down a buck. On the positive side though, the volume of gold stocks was very very low. That finnaly means many goldbugs are holding onto their gold stocks. The sooner we get these chicken sellers out of the coop the better it'll become for gold. WE NEED MORE GOLDBUGS WHO CAN HOLD ONTO WHAT THEY BUY.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:28 - ID#431263)
Du bist the KING OF TRUTH, mein Herr! Gott im Himmel! Ich liebe dich! Aber ja!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:28 - ID#43349)
Pearls from Cheeseheads
A speculator has to be ready to go with the flow even if it violates his most basic and cherished principles!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:28 - ID#288295)
Tantalus Rex

The companies making up the XAU are also represented in the SP500 index. If the Index fund managers are forced to liquidate big time, they will be forced to sell the XAU component stocks. They will go down with the market unless a lot of new buyers step up to the plate for gold stocks.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:29 - ID#57232)
I think I know that one
Pete: He also thinks the Queen of England is in the drug trade -- opium I think. He has excellent information gatherers working for him, he is a brilliant man with excellent insight on some topics, but on others he is a complete fruitcake. A number of intelligence agencies quietly read his report -- just for the intelligence, not the other stuff. I only read his reports at times because they give a different perspective. But you can trust nothing he says without getting it from a different source. He was a political canditate in the US at one time, and got put in jail for credit card fraud, I think. He may have been unfairly prosecuted, but he would be a disaster as a political leader.
The name is Lyndon Larouche. Nick@Perth ( I think ) often posts his ravings. Certainly worth a read sometimes if you can suspend your beliefs until you confirm from other sources.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:29 - ID#252150)
Sold my ABX this morn. I'm not going to stand in the way of a runaway
Japanese express train loaded with incendiary paper that's on it's way to demolish & burn what's left of the SEAsian currencies & eventually all the currencies in the rest of the world. I'm beginning to think that 170 Yen to the $ is possible. I don't know where that would put the POG, but have to think that it would be considerably lower. A decoupling is possible, but it will have to be very pronounced to convince me.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:33 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Panic buying in the Silver futures market coming to a store near
you! I like the sound of that! More big funds pile on, not wanting
to miss out on big moves in the direction its heading...YEP! I've
been patiently waiting for the fundamentals to take back control of
the Silver market..and now shouldn't we see the fundamentals spark
the Gold market soon? I think so! Who can I call to give me updates
while I'm up in the mountains of Colorado? Thanks.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:34 - ID#431263)
My words should only be understood in the context of trying to save yourself from the folly of the masses! That isn't cowardice. It's prudence!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:35 - ID#57232)
I was just making a joke!
Golden Cheesehead -- Just funning. Electricity doesn't leak. It is just when the world is so wild, you need to joke about it. We all just have to wait for the storm tearing through the equities to blow out, and when it does, buy gold equities again. Each time this happens, the gold equities will drop less, and the fiat currency addicts will slowly realize their folly. But each in its own time --changes in belief systems don't come quickly.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:36 - ID#43349)
He who lives by the sword....

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:37 - ID#212323)
All markets shall be free of my manipulation for the next 5 days...
I'm travelling to New Orleans to enjoy the company of some good friends. I won't give one thought to DOING anything about world finances, although I may talk about it a bit if the beer brings it forth. Gentlemen, the world is in you hands. I soon shall be engaged in pure relaxation and revelry with some of the finest minds I know.

I shall give Kitco's regards to the Big Easy.

Folding the gold and heading skyward.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:38 - ID#43349)
I agree. In speculation there is no cowardice, and there is no bravery, there is only separating what is real from what is not.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:38 - ID#288295)

Now 5.835 ( cbs marketwatch )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:40 - ID#43349)
@Aragorn III
Any particular prices you would like us to have ready for you when you get back?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:42 - ID#227238)
My system is showing DOW volume of almost a trillion ( with a T ) shares traded today. Actually 937 million. Impressive activity to the down side. Yes? Anyone have numbers on NAV for Rydex Ursa?

Kitco's site access seems to be slowing a bit as well. PM's must be attracting some attention today.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:43 - ID#212323)
Gollum...keep Au under 300 but build plenty of upside potential...
I've got some early Christmas shopping yet to do upon my return...pounds of it.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:45 - ID#267344)
Pete - uh, ok...
Pete on IMF, BIS: "Let me say without hesitation that both these banks are nothing more than bully-boy clearing houses for the drug trade."

clone: "Let me say without hesitation that you are smoking way too much crank."

* Neither statement, mine or yours, could be considered anything close to being reliable accusations. Where do you get this stuff? I think that if you looked outside of your box you may see a very different senario. Both institutions, dispite their negative aspects, serve very productive functions within our world economy.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:46 - ID#432148)
Rydex Ursa 4.87, even for month.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:46 - ID#43349)
SIU8 +5.840

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:50 - ID#57232)
Logging off -- long day
sharefin: Thanks for alerting us to your Swing chart warning! I sold 1/2 of my equities investments yesterday, keeping only the South African Gold Stocks, and some retail stocks: Both Fidelity select funds. I still have some index puts, but only the Mexican ones have any real value left. Is this Ping II? If so, we can make a guess about Ping III.
Personally, I doubt that this is the big one, because of the rising sunspot numbers doubling the odds of a market bull, the strength of the baby boomers against all logic, and 'flight to safety' from other countries in worse trouble than the US. We probably need at least a whiff of inflation, too. But -- if Clinton's fortunes head south tommorrow, I would take it all back. I think WJC wants the markets to correct now so that it will be smooth sailing for the 2yk elections. I think he will be surprised when he finds that the equity bear is just beginning to gather force -- but y2k is another story entirely -- if this uncertaintly continues.

Aragorn III
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:52 - ID#212323)
Clone...I had to search long and hard to find the truth in your statement...FOUND IT!
" Both institutions [BIS & IMF], despite their negative aspects, serve very productive functions within our world economy."

The IMF part was causing me the trouble, but you're right...they serve to make the American government look not so bad by comparison.

got relativity?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:53 - ID#432148)
Gollum - Your 18:21
Here is the answer to any inflation calculation you want:

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:54 - ID#43349)
Nose up, flaps down, gear down....>

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:54 - ID#295111)
Gold Regieren Die Welt!!!
@GOLDEN KASE KOPF: Nein! Ich im ihr demutig diener.
@Silverbaron: Maybe it will happen as you say, but I see a move from large caps to gold & gold stocks and I think it'll happen real quick when it I think it won't be a slow death.

Just like Greenspan says, it a matter of knowing WHEN this will happen. ( He won't tell us but I think he knows when )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:56 - ID#43349)
Thank you. That gives about eighteen bucks.

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:57 - ID#349183)
When Gold and Silver will REALLY shine.
Just an observation from the trenches:

Can we agree that much ( 60% or more? ) of the money in equities is coming from yuppies and baby boomers?
Can we also agree that these folks are greedy, and have come to expect 'unusual' ( 30%+ ) returns on their investments?

So, I postulate that a sharp downturn in the markets, coupled with the media screaming about Y2K, will rouse these slumbering sheeple into some sort of action.

Here's the rub: What will get these folks thinking "gold" and "silver"?

Will is 'just happen'? Will they spontaneously 'know' to buy PMs?
Will their brokers give 'em a hot tip on the PM market?
Will their co-workers start bragging about all the money *their* making in PMs?
Does the PM market even need 'em?

Is there something we ( the collective 'we' of all gold-buggerydom ) should do? Could do? Must do?

How about an advert during the superbowl? Showing a happy family sitting safely at home with their emergency food, purring electric generator, loaded weapons, all sitting amidst piles of gold and silver coins. Then pan to the street where the downtrodden are burning worthless paper dollars to keep warm as they slowly starve. ( ok, that's a bit overdone, but something... )

Is that what's needed to make people aware of PMs and their upside? If not, what is?

Just wondering ( wandering? ) out loud, I guess.


MG ( Go pro-Gold! ) ( Maybe we *make* this new gold market together, yes? )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 18:59 - ID#431263)
Will lay off 28,000 workers over the next 18 months. CUT earnings estimates this year from $1.64 to a buck! Next year from $3.64 to $2.00!!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:00 - ID#267344)
Aragorn - that stung!
I just think the IMF, although in great need of reform, is a good thing to have around. I think that a lending agency for countries is not such a bad idea in the grand scheme - especially if people are starving. -c

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:04 - ID#368244)
@ Aragorn III and the Big Easy
Be sure to stop by Tipitina's at 233 N. Peters street for great music and a great break from cerebral pursuits. ( )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:04 - ID#7568)

It's hard work tracking that little white ball when the thermometor is north of 90, but someone has to do it. For anyone who doesn't already know it, getting old sucks. Use to be I could ........

Oh well.

My thanks to all who have aided and abetted this rise in the silver market. Rumor has it that there was some pretty good producer selling into this rally and that the big fund has done some covering. If past performance is any clue, the fund in question probably has a few more good waves to launch before they are clear. On the downside they came into the market at the London open, when all were napping here in the USA. Perhaps tonight in the wee hours they shall move again.

As their short position gets squared up the next question becomes what is the objective of Aron and Co. Do they go for the jugular and try to run them in on the upside, or are they content to take their 75 cents out of this rally and leave the game?

Reading the press, always a good indicator, leads me to believe that this rally may have some more legs. It sounds like a lot of folks are asleep at the switch. The naysayers are more prevalent than the bull comentators and the absurd Buffett selling stories are actually getting printed. Haven't heard much from Mr. Arnold over at ML. It would make me feel more comfortable if he weighed in on the short side.

If one believes that all the recent removals of Comex silver are at the behest of Aron, then they would appear to be playing a longer term game.
If they were just aiming for the short spike, I suppose they might have removed a large block very quickly. Instead it looks like they are going for around a million ounces a day on a consistent basis. A small continuous drumbeat of withdrawal will might support a longer term rally, weeks, rather than days. They know well that the longer the uptrend the more powerful it can become at the extreme.

If someone were foolish enough to allow me to orchestrate the play, I might remove a million ounces a day for a week, then two million a day the following week and then finally three million a day for the last week, right up until options expirey. This would add up to their 30 million ounces and perhaps could spark a frenzy.

I would dearly love a frenzy.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:04 - ID#431263)
3 M TO CUT 4,000 JOBS!
Thousands of GM workers on strike MAY NEVER WORK FOR GM again! ASIA is startin' to BITE!! US, UK AND JAPAN HEADED FOR RECESSION! DOW beginning to DISCOUNT the future reality! Even the fashion stocks are gettin' hit!
Long skirts and coats for La NINA winter confirm!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:07 - ID#57232)
Last sentence interesting.
Gollum: Your soft landing post has an interesting last sentence. A spokesperson says: 'Since there is no inflation, the economy is on autopilot'. Ever try to land while the autopilot is engaged?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:09 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum, Fox Man, Silverbugs
Don't know what $10.40 in 1982 dollars would be today, other than MORE. However, in reviewing more closely this old '82 silver chart, the similarities -- at least through about mid-July '82 -- are strikingly, gleefully comparable. The '82 high for silver ( up to mid-July ) was around $8.80 in early February '82. ( Remember W.B.'s announcement Feb. '98? ) She, silver, dipped -- down to a low of just a hair under $5 in mid-June '82. ( cf. our recent $4.95. ) Around the second week of July '82, she was sitting at $5.60, just before a run-up to $6.40 -- then a lurch to $7.20 -- by month's end. She settled into a $6-7 range through most of August, then began her steady climb to $11.20 by the end of the year.

This I narrate from a tiny graph in the book *The New Precious Metals Market,* by Philip Gotthelf, which I panned yesterday saying that I paid $28 for it but felt it worth only $13.50. I am chagrined. It's gotta be worth at least $16.75.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:09 - ID#7568)

A fair chunk of my vig in this trade revolves around the opened ended time of it. The longer it doesn't go down, the better chance it has of going up. If you're going to cut down the time frame then I can't be so generous in leaving you only 13 dollars to the target while I am in need of 17. If you want to go only to Oct. 1, then we need to play even.

279.90 vs. 308.00.

A half ounce eagle will be fine.

Let me know.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:12 - ID#413307)
@ Mountain Goat: the green of rising silver in a sea of red ink
is a good advertisement for pms!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:14 - ID#43349)
Hey! Always glad to read your comments. We all sit here watching things from the outside. You could write a book.

It would be a great book.

With names and everything.

I just love the timing, making silver the game in town as the street goes down.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:15 - ID#344225)
The IMF doesn't help the starving at all.

They bail out the big Corporations that furnished
loans to the country in question and implement
AUSTERITY on the country that it helps.....

This creates starving, riots and deaths. It also
creates a lot of HATE for the USA since the USA
furnishes most of the funding for the IMF.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:17 - ID#43349)
Good background, man. What was the DOW doing during all of that. $10.4 comes out to about eighteen bucks today.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:17 - ID#413307)
@ jonesy: multiply the $10.40 by 1.72 to calculate the 1997
dollar value ( inflated )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:19 - ID#43349)
Sounds poetic too. The green island under a silver moon in a red sea.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:20 - ID#284255)
Thanks mate.
I'm just watching the waves.
Not sure whether this will be the big one or the next cycle wave after this one is over.
But the impulse of this one is very strong.

The forward momentum of the swing says a solid down move yet to come.
On the swing chart, you can note where the red line ( m/a ) crosses over and starts to plunge.
This indicator got me short last Oct when the bulls were still shouting.
I expect some big downmoves coming in the next few days of this down cycle.
It could well be as savage as in Oct.

If this was to occur then we could see the masses spooked and getting very nervous.
No excuse is needed, no reason is expected.
When the masses turn to panic.

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:21 - ID#349183)
@Charles Keeling & clone
Charles, you are absolutely correct. There was a link that I've lost to a page that showed that EVERY country the IMF has *helped* is now worse off than it was. Poorer, more miserable, more in debt.

Starving people is bad
Starving people with a huge national debt = even more starving people

tolerant1 has already drawn a bead on Camdessus, so I guess I'll put my rifle down for the time being.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:23 - ID#43349)
Very good point there. Since AG flies by wire, with no inflation there are no control signals.

Of course, I think the plane gotta nose over and get some air speed before he tries to bring the nose up if he doesn't want to stall it out.
By that time the airspeed indicator ( inflation ) should be showing something.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:26 - ID#431263)
To speak out about the growing danger of Russia to the US in fifteen minutes on CNBC's EQUAL TIME! A MUST WATCH FOR KITCOITES!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:26 - ID#273432)
Tantalus Rex

Please don't get me wrong....I'm not negative on gold or gold stocks; quite the opposite. I own several. As I see it, the switchover from Index stocks to gold and gold mining stock is probably very dependant on the time period it takes the major indices to drop.

If it is a slow, Chinese torture bear market, then the XAU will very likely shine before long. I personally think this is the most probable outcome. But if it is a crash, then the best bet is that the short-term lack of liquidity will drive the XAU down some more with the overall market before it comes back strong.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:28 - ID#43349)
SIU8 +5.845

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:31 - ID#349183)
@rhody & gollum
Truly you are both poetic.
And I agree with your poetry, rhody.

But will the sheeple in their little equities boat see these green islands?
Or will they crash into an iceberg before reaching them?

How many will survive to find our little green islands under the silver moon and golden stars?

( This is begining to sound like a box of Lucky Charms breakfast cereal! )


MG ( Go green islands! ) ( We watch... oh, nevermind. )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:32 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
The Dow in '82 waffled around 900 to 950. Didn't even flirt with 10,000 -- I mean, 1,000.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:35 - ID#218250)
Elliot Wave........Tomorrow could be counted as a 3rd wave of a 3rd
wave. If you look at a 15 minute chart of the Dow, the it is a series of 5s', with corrective waves to the upside. As some of you know, wave counting is easier to see after they are complete, but the 15 minute chart can be counted as 5 waves down that completed a wave 1 this morning. Wave 2 as a counter up move, then a 5 wave down to begin a wave 1 of the 3rd wave, with a simple a-b-c, then down hard into the close. If this count and I say if, is close to being correct, then the Dow will accelerate to the downside with a vengence. It looks like it is extending to the downside so this does not look to good for the Bulls.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:44 - ID#43349)
So with the market doin nuttin but waffle around they played with silver. No other game in town I guess.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:50 - ID#273432)
SI U8 5.850

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:51 - ID#43349)
@Mountain Goat
I don't think the sheeple pay much attention to anything except what page of the TV guide they should be on. They leave all that navigation stuff up to thier most trusted captains, the fund managers.

The fund managers make the most by beating all the other fund managers, so they are always out there prowling around.

Soetimes they are afraid to leave the pack for fear of being left behind, but sometimes when times grow lean, hunger drives them from the pack.

If one finds fresh game, the rest won't be far behind.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:55 - ID#43349)
SIU8 +5.860
We're going to be going into the Asian markets with all burners hot!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:56 - ID#273432)
Read these technical indicators on SILVER


(Thu Jul 23 1998 19:58 - ID#273432)
Trying agaiin on that link

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:00 - ID#273432)
I give up...

Past the link together....its worth reading.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:01 - ID#411112)
Golden Cheeshead...I to was interested in this story a few weeks ago but here is another view

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:01 - ID#43349)
Do you realize we could be well over six bucks before the market even opens in NY tomorrow?

I bet there are some shorts burning the midnight oil.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:04 - ID#43349)
terms of endearment
Let's see. If you're a long, then bearish is bad, flat is a bother, bullish is good, and....what's the next thing adter bullish again?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:04 - ID#227238)
Using round numbers, silver has retraced roughly 60% of its move from its low of 420 last Aug to the high of 720 in Feb. APH and I were both expecting to see a retest of support at 480. That's history, IMO.

In hindsight, the 60% retrace is pretty standard. Especially in response to the sharp spike high early this year. Gosh, it's so easy to see it all now. Yes?

Now the question is: To chase or not to chase. My inclination is NOT to chase but to wait for better entry. Any thoughts out there among the silvery ones????? ...... It looks to me like silver could have a week or more before some profit taking.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:05 - ID#252150)
It ocurred to me that RR & the LDP could pull off a surprise on the JY bears
The bears are expecting the old guard candidate to be elected. Maybe it's already worked out that a more promising candidate will be elected. That would be positive for the JY & RR could intervene again & possibly push it all the way back to 132.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:05 - ID#34883)
@Wetgold =Edward Gibbon=
Thanks Wetgold ...

Mike Sheller
(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:06 - ID#347447)
Over and over again we hear that "there is no inflation." That is not true. The proper definition of inflation is the increase in notes over the amount of specie ( gold & silver ) to back it up. We have nothing BUT constanjt, chronic inflation. With the U.S. money supply increasing at an annual rate recently of 7 - 9% ( if not more ) there is most certainly inflation. There has been a tremendous financial asset inflation since 1992. Prices have boomed as a result of it - bond and stock prices. Mr GREEN - SPAN will go down in history as having presided over the greatest peacetime inflation in history. First to bail out the American Banking system, then Mexico, now Asia. Down the road the dollar will reflect what has been done to it in this decade. Wait for 2003-2005. Silver will tell the tale then. And gold. The tail will wag the dog.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:08 - ID#7568)

Writing a book would be fun. Some of the characters in this game are truly characters. I am only on the periphery and would need to spend some time on a desk to get the real flavor. I played golf today with the guys that run the metals desk for one of the big wirehouses. They are lots of fun and good guys. One of them did a great imatation of one of their clients. I almost fell over in a sand trap.

With the dollar easing here just a bit things could get hot. Silver is creeping higher on just a little volume. About 1.5 million ounces have traded on the Access so far. Even that gold crap is going higher. Wondrous.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:09 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum, re. Silver the only game in town in '82
You're almost right. *PMs* were the only game in town in 1982. Gold rose from a mid-June low of 305 to 500 in September. Plat went from 260 to over 400 in that same time period. ( Get that? -- a plat/gold ratio of 0.8 ...whoa! ) Palladium, from a low of around 50 in mid-June, rose to almost 95 by the end of the year.

The price patterns of these metals during the comparable time in 1982 is amazingly like 1998 -- to date. I feel like I've stumbled onto something. History doesn't repeat itself *exactly,* but . . .

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:11 - ID#43349)
That's not a bad assesment except that the DOW blowing out at the same time as this retracement began is going to have an impact even if we discard the factor of stocks going into thin supply as having already been discounted by the charts.

I think chase while waiting to see if DOW flight money get's drawn in, but be ready to cash out if it doesn't look like it's going to fly.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:12 - ID#227238)
Mike Sheller: 2003-2005???? .... Jeez Mike, I'm gonna be 60 in Sept and by 2000 whatever, viagra is gonna be 100 bucks a tablet. Spit shine that crystal ball of yours and see if can't do better than that. OK?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:14 - ID#267344)
Charles Keeling, Mountain Goat, and Aragorn III
clone admits to err. clone incorrectly defended the IMF for a second. clone now concedes and exhuberantly concurs with the assertion, "the IMF sucks!!" However, the idealist in clone stands by the idea of an international lending agency as a good one - the issue is one of functionality and morality.

Thank you for the feedback. -c

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:15 - ID#222231)
JTF, wrong. That was an excerpt from the Committee of 300 by John Coleman. I guess I'm out in left field. Most everyone on this forum has no respect for the IMF. Whenever the IMF gets it's clutches into a nation, they are stripped of their assets and humiliated. How many or what percentage ever recover without undue hardship. Just a coincidence I presume. The China wars were fought over tea, huh?

Clone, you say the IMF and BIS serve a useful purposes. How? They save governments by loaning them money to bail out the ones ( bankers that used unsound loan practices ) that put them in that situation in the first place, while the common citizens suffer. Never underestimate the enemy.

I'll stay in my cynical box while you stay in your rosy box.

Gotta find my tweezers,


(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:18 - ID#210253)
Re. the.wager

Yes, your counter of this evening at 19:09 accepted as follows:

NY Spot Gold Close anytime before 10/1/98 @ $308/oz or above, I agree to deliver 1/2 oz US Eagle within 10 days to your named US delivery point.

On the other hand, NY Spot Gold Close anytime before 10/1/98 @ $279.90 or below, you agree to deliver 1/2 oz US Eagle within 10 days to my named US delivery point.

That 10 cents could have some effect, but the fact is if you should win so do I.

Good Luck to ya!


(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:19 - ID#227238)
Gollum: Thanks for your thoughts. As I sit here looking at the silver chart ( weekly ) it looks like more than a mere flash in the pan. We're presently some $0.60 above the basing range with potential resistance at 615-630 and major resistance at 700+. With stops and a prayer .... who nows how much can be lost. {:- )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:23 - ID#430212)
gold and gold mining stocks.....
Not to sound bearish, but..... the past performance of gold over the last 10 years is offering no hope in making
a profit in this sector. I said it before, the only way you will see things turn bullish for gold is if we have a recession or a war. I consider myself skeptical, and unless one of these events take place, then and only then will I become bullish.

Mountain Goat
(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:28 - ID#349183)
It takes guts and intelligence ( =character ) to change your mind and admit it.

You also are right: In the perfect world, the IMF would probably be a good idea.
Unfortunately, the leaders it lends to and those within it, parasitize off the money, and very little gets to those it was meant to serve. Such is the way of the world, I guess.

Best regards,

MG ( Go Silver and Gold! )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:29 - ID#251166)
587 and rising...

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:30 - ID#288295)
SI U8 5.870

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:32 - ID#293379)
Earl (Silvery thoughts...)
I think the key right now is the supposed tightness in the physical silver market. The price should keep rising as the COMEX inventories decline. Sure folks will take some profits, but watch the trend in supply. Silver isn't a static market, mines and refineries move physical into the market throught the COMEX. It isn't just speculators moving their hoards. The paper silver marketeers are not capable of understanding WB's play because mainly they understand only short term movements. He looks at the fundaments of supply and demand and he isn't in a hurry. Why would he look for a short term profit when everything he said is coming to pass! The technicians primarily understand their charts and the waves, but the charts don't account for unpredicable change--the fundamentals are in place for Silver to keep going up. Watch the inventories, if this months Goldman-Sachs purchase of 26 mil oz takes physical delivery, then stand by for the inventories to drop into the 60 mil oz range... What happens then? More players, more purchases, more dollars per oz. Most silver purchases are inelastic, and physical demand isn't going to decrease IMHO until the price doubles.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:38 - ID#43349)
No history, doesn't repeat itself exactly, but human emotions have been the same forever. Too bad Shakespeare didn't write about the PM markets. He had a lot of good insight.

The DOW, NASDAQ, etc. used to be a pretty good game, but that game is now folding and the players are out looking.

Make no mistake. Silver is not a buy it and hold it investment. It's a stakes game. It might go to the moon, but there is one hell of a lot of idle mining capacity, not to mention little bundles like Buffets sitting in the wings. A players game.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:40 - ID#7568)


Speaking of wagering, I went down to the local convenience store to pick up a little ice cream this evening. The place was packed wall to wall with humanity. Patient, yet serious. First I thought they were on line to get shares in a new internet IPO, then I realized that it was Powerball madness.

At 80 million to one those people were willing stand in line for hours for the privalege of donating money to the government. Such is the power of fantasy.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:42 - ID#411112)
Gazebo...If you are looking at GOLD as an investment you will always be I have said

many times here...Gold is the best insurance
money can buy...and we are talkng about only
5-15% of your investment me
if the crap hits the fan as some here have
said that 5-15% will be worth more than the
85-95% of your investment dollar that are in
stocks......I always tell my clients that buy
gold from me.....pray that you never have to
use this as it was intended....because that
means a whole lot of other really bad things
have just happened

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:46 - ID#43349)
Another 13 
and we're at six bucks even up.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:48 - ID#273432)
For you Silver speculators

Startup time is getting close on this one.
This is not investment advice. However, I do admit to owning a little piece of the action.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:51 - ID#57232)
Pete: In my opinion the IMF does not fail because they are corrupt, they fail because they are equipped to bail out banks that have transparent financial records, and are fairly sound fiscally. They are not equipped to bail out a system that is foreign to them, and one where it is impossible to determine just how much of a debt load is present. I agree with clone that such a bailout organization would be worthwhile if it worked. Unfortunately, it doesn't, and the people who suffer during the economic collapse suffer even more when the IMF discovers they know about only the tip of the iceberg. The IMF is also a branch of the World Fiat banks -- so their attitude toward gold is negative, except when they want to spend it to get more money. The European banks have refused to sell IMF gold, despite US enthusiasm.
The BIS is a more benign institution, the bankers bank. The only bank in the world still on a true gold standard. It was the confrontation of the BIS and the US at Ranboullet that lead to the US giving up on its insane effort to keep the price of gold constant. You may not like what the BIS represents, because it only exists to interact with other banks, and the motivations of the bank may be suspect at times, but it serves a useful role as one of the few pro-gold proponents left in the banking world.
So I got it wrong -- Coleman, not Lyndon Larouche. Be careful though, Coleman may be seeing conspiracies behind every door, also. It is harder to understand this fellow, as he does not speak or write as prolifically as LL. Again -- don't believe the Committee of 300 stuff unless you can confirm it from another source.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:52 - ID#251166)
@ Gollum
Correctimundo, seor. Silver is not a buy and hold. And, yes, I do remember -- a few hundred years ( or hours ) ago: She sat there on the ratty sofa looking a lot like gold, her hair disheveled, cheeks sagging, popping another bon-bon to fend off her depression. Then... Then, with a valiant resolve risen up from the core of the glorious self she once was, she set her face like a flint for the New Jerusalem -- $10 -- and we, humble thee and me, are, by some absolutely unmerited grace, allowed to witness the first steps of her sublime and mighty ascent.

Gack! I been posting too much today. Better go get a pizza and video.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:54 - ID#43349)
I would be the first to buy any book you wrote. You have a very fine appreciation of nuances, and a wonderfull writing style with good grammar and everything. Throw in the view from the inside and you've got a best seller.

gert frobe
(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:54 - ID#42963)
All: What's This About Buffet Ready to Sell??
Headline today from Info-Mine says Warren is preparing to sell??

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:56 - ID#227238)
Micheal: Thanks. ..... Skirts or PM's, I find all too easy to get caught up in the chase and ignore the fundamentals. Not to mention the consequences. Age and opportunity will mitigate against the former but there ain't no known cure for the latter. ....... Gee it's difficult to type with burned fingertips. {:- )

(Thu Jul 23 1998 20:59 - ID#43349)
@gert frobe
Aww, that's just some flak thrown out by some wild eyed shorts who have no more idea than the man in the moon what ol' WB's going to do.

He got into silver in the first place because he couldn't find anything else attractive enough to put the cash into in the markets. I don't think this is the time to be going back into the markets when silver is hot and the dow is not.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:05 - ID#227238)
Silverbaron: With potential like that, why on earth would ECM even bother to issue stock?? Their startup costs are miniscule and the grade is enormous. If true. ...... Why would they need outsiders to supply money??? Maybe they just like to deal with investors and regulators.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:09 - ID#432221)
Letter to my Dad

You asked " What do you think" about the IMF.You knew when you
were typing those words the slant of my reply, and should have known that my
response will fly contrary to your previous "don't worry, be happy" messages.
I respect your views that worrying or discontentment are a waste of life, and
if I were in my mature years, I might share you're views. However, my outlook
still contains much idealism, I still believe that there is much room for
inprovement in the way we are ruled and the way we submit to that rule.
So on to the IMF.
Is the IMF the best solution to the worlds economic problems in
the here and now? My impression is that the IMF is what is allowing the debt
based economy to hang on to existance. This debt based global economy is a 60
or so year old experiment that is floundering before our very eyes. The longer
this reserve based system hangs on, the deeper the debt created.
It is true that this availability of easy "money" has
allowed us to create the society we currently experience ( notice I do not say
enjoy ) . But the fact IS, WE ARE ALL IN DEEP DEBT. There are less than a
handfull of nations that actually have a positive net worth ( govornment
stuff ) . How in the hell do you think we're gonna pay off 5.7 trillion dollars
worth of debt?We are not even addressing the debt. We are ignoring it! This
debt thing, a pervasive philosophy that has been, in a large part, advanced by
"organizations" like the IMF, the Bank of International Settlements ( BIS ) , the
US Federal Reserve, etc,has gotton us where we are today.
It is my belief that the global economy could still
survive a transition to a non-debt based system without deteriorating into a
world war.
The EURO is a positive step in this direction ( 15% backed by GOLD ) . Y2K could
be a catalyst that allows this transition relatively peacefully. But the
biggest financial powers on the planet see this as a threat to their
existance, so tenacious resistance is inevitable. Tens or hundreds of billions
of $ of "loans" are spread around in a vain attempt to tournequit the
bleeding. This cannot go on forever.
SO, what do I think? I think we would be best served by
taking our medicine sooner than later. I think that socialist "bailouts"
should be terminated immediately, and the chips allowed to fall where they
may. I think the US national debt should be the #1 priority, otherwise It's
gonna destroy this country. I think the Republican resistance to donating
billions of my tax dollars to corrupts and idiots abroad is RIGHT ON! I think
this experiment is over, and we are on the brink of a positive, but painful,
economic reorginization.
Anyhow, you asked, and that's what I think. My
head is 6' above the sand, others,

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:10 - ID#227238)
Ever wonder where AG, RR and those in the inner circle keep their resources???? Chase money market account??? Naaah!

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:16 - ID#295111)
SilverBaron @19:26
I'm not a tech guru, but it sounds like you know what you're talking about. However, my take on a crash is this.

The stocks to be affected the most in a crash ( or correction ) are stocks in the DOW and the top 5-10 stocks on the NASDAQ. It's very important to know that this is not a true bull market cause only a segment of the whole market is affected. It's the large cap liquid issues that have this bull momentum. Small caps and mid caps do not factor in, they're baby meat. Big guys can't sell then off fast enough.

Now the only stock with any measure of semblance to gold in this "safe haven" group is ALCAN ***ONLY*** cause it produces a metal, and a cheap metal at that. When the crash arrives, commodties will NOT be hit hard cause they already have been hit hard. Commoditities will keep their value. Yes I believe ALCAN will drop in value but not as much as the rest.

The transfer of wealth from this massive sell-off has to go somewhere. It either goes to 1 ) cash or 2 ) bonds or 3 ) commodities or 4 ) PM's or 5 ) out of the US or 6 ) Small caps.

I don't think it'll go to cash or bonds cause interest rates will rise in order to keep capital from flowing out of the US. When interest rates rise, your bonds lose value. So the only logical conclusion is commodities and PM's or risk putting money into Europ/Asia or small caps. As the money goes to PM's and commodities, you will see inflation.

So, now you know why the fix is in to lower the value of commodities and PM's especially gold and at the same time, raise the weath in liquid large cap stock issues. So they can easily sell the DOW stocks and believe me they'll make money even in a crash cause they've raised the prices enourmously high. With the profits from the sell-off, they will buy "REAL" goods really cheaply. Then the fix is back on. The bull in PM's and commodites begins. They'll buy from themselves to raise the price.


(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:16 - ID#253246)
Dines *************singing Franco & Stillwater song

Dines singing the Franco & Stillwater song tonight, must have forgot
the words on Silver Standard check gold update

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:20 - ID#267344)
Executive Order on Ordering Selective Reserve to Active Duty

Office of the Press Secretary

For Immediate Release February 24, 1998


- - - - - - -


By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and
the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and
12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is
necessary to augment the active armed forces of the United States for
the effective conduct of operations in and around Southwest Asia.
Further, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary
of Defense, and the Secretary of Transportation with respect to the
Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Department of
the Navy, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members
not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit, of the Selected

This order is intended only to improve the internal management of
the executive branch and is not intended to create any right or benefit,
substantive or procedural, enforceable at law by a party against the
United States, its agencies, its officers, or any person.



(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:21 - ID#273432)
Earl @ ECM

Beats me, unless they didn't have any money for exploration, driling, etc. when the project started a couple of years ago.

The question on this mine is not the grade of the ore ( it is 1% silver ) , the question how big is the deposit...30,000 tonnes? 300,000 tonnes? If things go as planned, the first dividend check may cover my investment costs-everything else will be gravy...

Buyer beware, as always on these speculative ventures.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:24 - ID#43349)
@Tantalus Rex
Good discussion. As you point out and so many forget is that money is made in stocks when you SELL them.

You give your money away when you buy them.

All these people looking with pride at the high prices of stocks they have sunk every last cent into are penniless people.

The big money gets them cheap, drives them up, and then collects everyones cash when they sell out.

Some people call it a market crash, but it's really sheep shearing time.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:32 - ID#273432)
Tantalus Rex

Man, I hope you are right. Nothing would please me more than for gold and silver and their mining companies to jump out of the starting blocks and never look back. I'm just cautious...the markets have not reacted ANYTHING like I have in the past couple years, they go up on bad news, down on good news, and who among us hasn't had their head handed to them more than once? I sure have.

In any case, I'm holding my gold and silver mining stocks, have about 60% in cash, and a little bit in SP500 puts, way out of the money. That's where I plan to stay until the smoke clears.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:37 - ID#290408)
Spot Silver down?
Does anyone know the current spot? Kitco spot silver graph is showing
it's down to 5.65?

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:38 - ID#43349)
Gotta go
I've got to go do some stuff and then retire. Let us see what Friday brings in the morning.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:45 - ID#113316)
September contract is at $5.845, confirmed by Bloomberg. Kitco appears to be another data glitch.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:48 - ID#295111)
To me, holding that cash is great **IF** you know when to buy. But the window of opportunity to buy may be so short. You may have to make a quick decison, you won't even have time to average up/down your purchases

Things might move so fast that you could be left trying to catch up to the GOLD DUST in the wind.

Personally, I have little cash, just enough to survive, pay bills etc.
ANything I can save goes to 1 ) Gold 2 ) Gold Stocks 3 ) Preciious Metals Mutual funds.

That's cause I believe that the POG has been "fixed" to be low. So I play the same game as the fixers. I buy what "they" are buying and are going to buy....GOLD

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:51 - ID#417249)
Spot Silver @ 5781 per CBS Marketwatch (SI=Q8)

Gandalf the White
(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:54 - ID#433301)
Attention Gollum
The charts show a 19 cent down spike in silver at 21:30 !
Is this correct ?
Gandalf the White

(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:56 - ID#417249)
Excuse me Q8 is August Futures

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Jul 23 1998 21:58 - ID#295111)
SilverBaron - Electric Cars and Silver
I meant to ask you about Silver since you might shed some light on this.

I hear thru reliable sources that silver has a very good chance of being used in electric cars. It will be used as part of the car's battery system. Maybe cause silver has special conductive properties. California has an initiative to reduce gas powered cars with these electric ones. I believe these electric cars will become reality one day. Gas powered vehicles will become like the horse and buggy in todays time frame.

If silver is the secret metal to be used, price of silver will hit the roof to the moon.

They tell me Warren Buffet purchased his silver for many reasons, but silver in electric cars was one of them.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 22:04 - ID#411440)
@ Tantalus Rex: Silver underwent a massive correction during the
hungry thirties, because it is truly a commodity and not a true pm.
If we go into a deflation in the coming months, silver will deflate
too. If we go into a stagflation, then silver may be a longer term
hold, until fuel cell technology becomes widespread. IMHO

(Thu Jul 23 1998 22:10 - ID#413109)
Short term calls are not my thing
But I keep posting. Lately though I've been on a roll, starting
with NIKKEI, and now it seems my work in gold and XAU too, seem to
be falling into place.
Yesterday I said that they would end on the low of the day, and
today, Friday they should do the opposite, and finish the week
near their highs, and next week out of here.
Well sit back and let's see if my roll will continue.
Predicting can be fun, but but but.....

(Thu Jul 23 1998 22:18 - ID#411440)
SILVER plunge: The Kitco graph shows a 14 cent drop on the
spot silver price to $5.61, while the printed spot chart shows silver at
$5.81. Which is correct? If it has been shorted back, this just means
that silver is going to disappear even faster from COMEX stockpiles.

I get the feeling that the funds that are short are getting desparate.
If they keep shorting, using borrowed silver, even at 4.5% lease rates,
perhaps they hope that the economy goes into a deflation and
bails them out. Otherwise, shorting the beginning of a silver bull
with these levels of supply/demand imbalances seems suicidal, unless
they are in so deep that they have nothing to lose, and defaults and
ruin are staring them in the face. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Could they be in this deep?????!!!!!!!

Bully Beef
(Thu Jul 23 1998 22:18 - ID#259282)
I have seen images of the Austrailian humanitarian aid in the tidal wave zone (Paupa New Guinea?)
Your troops ( and medical personnel ) displayed courage and tremendous sensitivity in a horrible situation. I take back everything nasty I have said about Aussies except that you don't know anything about beer. Congrats. Go Gold!

(Thu Jul 23 1998 22:25 - ID#411440)
@ all: Forget my previous post on silver decline, it was just
Bart playing a little plotting joke. Silver is up 1 cent in the east.

(Thu Jul 23 1998 23:15 - ID#222231)
Tantulas Rex-Electic cars
The following URL tells about The Ballard Fuel Cell which is being developed by Benz, Ford, Honda and others. The fuel cell uses platinum as a catalyst. There is a ton of money going into its developement.

Best regards,


(Thu Jul 23 1998 23:30 - ID#341312)
Kitco sentiment, electric cars, and Y2K awareness
It seems like only a few weeks ago that some posters thought $3.50 silver was coming soon. Wait a minute, it WAS only a few weeks ago! What a difference a $0.60 rally makes in the Kitco sentiment. I'm not planning on selling any till it hits the BIG time. I can wait. I've got physical and it's not leveraged so I'm gonna sit back and do the Warren thing. Wait. Speaking of Warren, how is it that rumors of him selling are supposed to be bullish for silver? How did that writer come up with that? And why would Warren, who's watched the silver market for decades and bought in at about $5 or so settle for a measly 20% profit? I think a few of the earlier posts raised the same questions but the opinions of some of these financial "experts" are so absurd they defy belief. The internet is making these commentators obsolete right before our very eyes.
Taantalus Rex-Electric cars will happen but I doubt they'll relegate the internal combustion engine to horse and buggy status. I suspect they'd make ideal commuter vehicles in dense urban areas where short range is not an issue and charging facilites would be numerous. In outlying areas charging might be a problem unless some sort of quick charging off the existing electrical infrastructure can be worked out. They also have some definite advantages in low end torque and general simplicity of design and maintenance. Their big claim to fame, of course, is zero emissions but the overall pollution they'd cause is a lot less clear. That power has to be generated somehow and those plants themselves generally pollute to some extent. The big problem, though, would be battery disposal. What do you do with millions of used batteries? Maybe recycle them or perhaps fuel cells don't have the same problems, I don't know. I'm guessing that electric vehicles will complement but not really replace current cars. Just as long as "they" don't try to ban and confiscate the Stang-o-mizer we won't have any trouble. ;- )
In the news- Y2K health care crisis is front page on USA Today. Gee, that's funny, I thought Bill Gates was supposed to have fixed all this by now. Oh well, no reason to worry. Bad things are not allowed to happen here in the U.S. Every year our houses and mutual funds go up 15-30%. And they always will, won't they? ( cut to Sept. '99 ) Hey! How come the bank's closed? Why are the supermarket shelves so empty? What are all those troops doing? WHAT? YOU CAN'T DO THAT! I'M AN AMERICAN CITI-

(Thu Jul 23 1998 23:37 - ID#251166)
Re. Tomorrow's -- TODAY'S -- election in Japan
Obuchi Favored In LDP Leadership Race Friday
TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -Keizo Obuchi has a lead over his two rivals for
leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party - the winner will become
Japan's next prime minister - but an upset could still occur during the
party vote Friday.

A total of 414 party members, all LDP Diet members and representatives
from each of Japan's 47 prefectures, will vote for one of three candidates:
Foreign Minister Obuchi, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiroku Kajiyama
and Health and Welfare Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

If Obuchi fails to win a majority ( 208 votes ) in the first round, the top two
finishers will vie in a second ballot. Should the third-place candidate's
supporters rally behind the number two man, Obuchi could lose in the
second round.

On Thursday, the candidates appeared at a party campaign function and
made final appeals for support.

Obuchi discussed his economic plan, which centers on 6 trillion yen in
permanent tax cuts. On the diplomatic front, he said he would pursue the
return of northern territories held by Russia.

Koizumi described his plan to repeal the Fiscal Structural Reform Law -
which requires Japan to follow a tight fiscal policy - and to institute
permanent tax cuts. He also discussed a drastic administrative
restructuring proposal that would reduce the number of central
government employees by half over 10 years.

Kajiyama emphasized his determination to deal with the bad-debt
problems weighing down the financial sector and to hold managers

On July 30, the Diet will convene in extraordinary session. Its first order of
business will be to elect a new prime minister, who will form a cabinet that
same day. The LDP's lower house majority assures its new president will
be named prime minister.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Friday morning edition )