Or else???

July 26, 1998

Albright says Myanmar political "explosion" possib

MANILA, July 27 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Monday there was an increasing
possibility of a political "explosion" in Myanmar that could undermine regional stability.
"With each passing day, the likelihood of a social breakdown -- or explosion -- that would undermine regional stability
grows higher; the likelihood that a future government will be able to tackle Burma's ( Myanmar's ) problems becomes smaller,"
she said in a speech to an Asian security meeting.

Thanks for the emoticon links in your 23:49
I too could use a few new ones.

I was pretty sure that censorship wasnt being practiced here so I went to a nearby Chapters ( Barnes and Noble look-alike ) to check it out. Here are three definitions of "censor" I found from American, Canadian, and International English language dictionaries

Websters American Family Dictionary: "censor": An official who examines literature, television programs etc. For the purpose of suppressing or deleting parts deemed objectionable on moral, political, military or other grounds.

Canadian Oxford Dictionary: "censor": A person whos job is to read books, watch films etc in order to remove anything offensive from the material.

Cambridge International Dictionary of the English Language: "censor" An official authorized to examine printed matter, films, news, etc before public release, and to suppress any parts on the grounds of obscenity, threats to security, etc.

( Note: The old USSR dictionary, the one with the hammer & sickle on the cover defined "censor" as " fearsome leader" )


I think one can conclude from these various definitions that it is impossible to practice censorship without exercising editorial control. If youve read our disclaimer youve noticed that Kitco relinquishes all editorial control. Nothing gets deleted, nothing gets suppressed, nothing gets removed - effectively nothing gets censored. If it is so necessary to use a single word to describe what happens here to maintain some semblance of order I would suggest the term "404" instead which has already emerged anyway. Heres how I would define it:

"404" ( verb ) - "To remove ones posting privileges from this discussion group due to a disregard of the netiquette rules"

Heres another one:
"808" ( verb ) - "To remove one's posting privileges from both K1 & K2". ( To date there are no known 808ees )

I like "404". Its a good word. Because its numeric - not derived from another word, it inherits no connotation neither positive nor negative. It is language-neutral and therefore culturally unbiased. I would find a statement such as "I will not write for 404ers" totally acceptable as opposed to "I will not write for censors" which implies that censorship goes on here when it does not. If you dont believe me check the past posts for all the rude and abusive comments and youll find that they still remain exactly intact, no less insensitive than in their debut appearance.


QUALITY CONTROL DEP'T:
Someone was asking when our quote system will become more reliable. Itll happen soon. Youll know when cause everythings going to look completely different.

Okay, will call off my attack Golden Retriever. Your biggest danger was getting licked to death. Speaking of Gold, I am skeptical of the en-Gold link. I see the  as merely a barometer of Gold vs. $ strength. Maybe for the short term, Gold will track with the . Things like the Yuan, the Euro, and a possible stock market debacle are looming big on the horizon. Gold and the $ will respond to these things in the next few months. Not long at all from now. Appreciate any thoughts from you and other Kitcoites.

this particular crime has a villain and he is me...even Leonardo's calls do not placate my inner most sacrifice no excusenot a one...tis quiet on the great lawn

two littles fell asleep this very evening and waited up for magic

and he was nowhere to be found...

of these things I am sure...come to the Island that is Long and see the expressions hanging off their faces...

tears, lots of tears...ectoplasm,dura does matter...

roiled in shame, I am....sullied...

the drench of my agony should not stain the windows of your mind's eyes...

a gulp to ya...one and all...Namaste'

Bart
Thanks for the clarification. If one finds oneself 404'd is that permament? Is there rehabilitiation possible so that one could post again, say after appropriate apologies, public whipping, ( or private, if you wish ) or even after passing of gold across the palms of webmasters?

Also, will you tell us who has been 404'd. SOmetimes posters just disappear and we suspect that the FDA or FEMA or RCMP or another secret service organisation has terminated them, if they've been 404'd we know that they're still "out there."

Date: Sun Jul 26 1998 22:30
rhody ( @Gazebo: I do not think there is a lot of downside potential ) ID#413307:
for the POG here, but neither do I expect the leasing pressure from
CBs to be off until Jan. 1999. I think it's sideways from here
with oscillations to keep the gold carry boys happy.


Date: Sun Jul 26 1998 22:29

I agree that the real link, if any, is to the dollar. The yen simply happens to be a somewhat more volatile indicator than the others for the moment.

Some traders seem to think that the yen is an indicator of Japanese/asian demand for gold since a higher yen/dollar makes gold more expensive and a lower yen/dollar more inexpensive for the asian buyer.

Gold has a more established link to bond prices and to risk of dollar inflation than it has to the yen.

This latest tying of gold to the yen seems to have occurred at about the same time as the US/BOJ intervention.

I think it'e there because the higher the yen/dollar gets the more chance there will be further intervention. The lower the less.

Intervention implies dollar inflation ( more dollars in the market due to buying yen ) . Intervention makes bonds less attractive and gold more attractive.

As the Japanese currency crises becomes less critcal and things in Japan sort themselves out the price of gold will become no longer linked to small fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchage rate.

My browser shows a -10 for the www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.htm

Steve in TO: Amazing how that works; isn't it? If people become deluded into believing that some outside agency has taken on - effective - responsibility for personal conduct, any sense of personal responsibility that did prevail, becomes weakened and falls by the wayside. But it cannot be changed. All we can do is watch. Free people, do have the right to destroy themselves as they wish.

for running the Kitco site and hoisting the discussion board.

I know there's been some carping about the site and some rude comments directed at you- so I thought you'd like to hear from a happy camper : )

It's important for us HC's to speak up and make our voices heard from time-to-time, you know, otherwise the world will only hear from the Unhappy Campers, and think that the sky is going to fall down : (

So, thanks again, Bart- keep up the good work!

- Steve

Well, it doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary is going to happen in the asian markets for now. I'm going to bed. If things stay quiet through the London opening we'll be ready to resume our silver rally NY AM.

Aurator: "Millions for sanction. Not one penny for rehabilitation". Sorry 'bout that. ....{:- )

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun, whose purpose it is to launch dead chickens.

It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshields of airline jets, military jets, and the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum travelling velocity. The idea being, that it will simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test the gun out on the windshield of their new high speed trains. However, upon the firing of the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two,and embedded itself in the back wall of the cabin.
Horrified, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment,
along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions. The NASA scientists sent back a one sentence response:

"THAW THE CHICKEN."

One person who used to work for British Aerospace tells a similar story ( which he swears is true ) that these machines are actually used to fire chickens into jet engines to simulate birdstrikes on the compressor blades.

To cut a long story short, to thaw the chicken someone left it in the gun overnight and performed the test in the morning.

The results were somewhat different to expected and close examination of the high speed video footage showed a very startled looking stray cat clinging to a half eaten chicken as it exited the gun at MACH 0.7.

========

Perhaps its time to revisit the Chicken Standard discussion we had a while ago?

Crusty
Extrapops being despatched to Disney's home for Wayward Girls in half a spin. I'm glad you trust Russel enough to leave him in charge during your absinthes.

All
Last night's competition has been criticised for being antipodeanist. Offering a prize while you Northern hemispheroids ( hence you are antipodean to us ) are sleeping. Soooooo next Saturday afternoon EST I shall offer a similar prize -- that's a modern copy of Charles Mackay's 1841 Classic "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" --- especially for YOU antipodeans. We shall watch this together, yes?

Canadians
Please don't forget the informal gathering in Toronto this coming weekend, July 30 I think. There is a copy of Extrapops that will be given away there to some lucky kitcoite. . For more info contact Mooney moonstep@idirect.com

Silver has had its collar caught on a nail for some time now. It seems to be stuck at 566.50. Basis Aug.

What's platinum gonna do this week?

Earl
Do you mean that there's no second chances after being 404? Well, I had better thank Bart right now for not 404ing me for some of my past insensitive comments and apologise to those who may have taken offence.
Trouble is, we are looking at cultural values "insensitive, good taste" and these are moving "feasts". Down under "Good Taste" still means "He will taste good in the stew." And the pinnacle of sensitivity was once, scarely a century ago, killing dinner before putting him in the stew.

Wouldn't worry too much about 404, mate. I think Bart is a more tolerant one than many @ Kitco think.

back in 1988, if you were a plebian investor like me, the way you got your gold quotes was- you read 'em every day in IBD or the Financial Post or the WSJ, and they were eight-hours delayed.

The height of personal desktop power was the IBM AT 80286 computer, that would cost you $5,000, although clones were available that cost less, and had been souped-up to run at the unprecedented speed of 16 MHz. Modems cost several hundred dollars and ran at 1,200 baud. It could take over an hour to download all the market data for the day, and you would pay stiff online connect-time charges for the privilege of doing so.

Only brokers who worked for companies with large, multi-user computer systems had access to real-time ticker data. Data was transferred at high-cost via data packet-switching networks or via dedicated lines, at rates that only large organizations or very wealthy traders could afford.

In 1998 you just log onto the Kitco site via the WWW, and there is an array of valuable PM data laid out for you in a format that even the institutional broker could have in 1988.

Folks, if Bart hadn't decided to build this site, we'd still be doing the things we had to do in 1988- except that our modems would run at 56,000 baud. Let's remember that Kitco's site is a recent thing and we really ought to encourage him for creating a valuable resource and providing the very best environment for goldbugs to talk.

Dear sirs JTF ( I would guess something for Cyclical behavior ) ID#57232
blooper ( Prudent ) ID#207145
skinny ( Prudent ) ID#28994
It seems your are very knowledgeable people. Can you tell me where the world stands financially?
What is the underlying cause of this phenomenom?
What are the perspective of the present situation?
What are the actions to be taken, to survive and to profit?

Hope you answer me.

Aurator: We are returning to the "old ways". And it will be good. .... But we must always remember to remain the "eater", while carefully avoiding the appellation: "eatee". ..... If successful, being called to dinner should remain a postive experience. ........ The Maori knew very well that quality protein is always in short supply. Generations of Maori grandmothers are remembered fondly for: "Waste not, want not".

Japan's -257 so far tonight and the crash index is in full alert at -10 as stated earlier. Might be a little tough on the stock bulls tomorrow.
Gee, what a shame.
Earl-thanks and I like that idea about declaring victory and letting parents be parents again. Obviously far too practical and freedom oriented to get any political support, however. What would all of those alphabet soup agencies do all day? they'd be going :-0 There goes my job!
Oh noooooooooooooooooooooo......................
Bart-I'd also like to say thanks for this site. It's the best on the web!
be back tomorrow. Gold 2K in Y2K!

"the price can't stay down for too long." Agree entirely. Watch the Sept-Dec spread like a hawk. Somebody is being forced to cough up the physical. Would _not_ want to be short right now; that is, unless I had the metal in my basement and wanted to get rid of it. Technicals mean nothing.

happy trading this week.

sam__A ( not sam! )

Thanks Bart for this forum and the much needed correction of extremist thought regarding censorship.

There are few more worthy of being persistantly ignored than those wield such words like firebrands, using them not for truth they might convey, but for the ignorant inflamation they provoke. Words of such function are the primary tool of manipulative propogandists.

With an audience trained to blind reaction at the appearance of certain words, otherwise ridiculous suggestions carry the rhetorical day. While training to blind reaction is useful for circus animals, it has no place in the intelligent pursuit of truth.

An audience so carried by its brainwashed follies almost deserves the stupid manipulations it falls prey to. However, it is useful in the greater scope that their influence be diminished. The legitimacy of truth will be confirmed in a public square open for reasoned exchange. Too many places the cacophony of ignorant reaction has overwhelmed the voice of intellignet discourse.
I appreciate that the integrity of this forum would be preserved through judicious ( even unilateral ) 404'ing.
Thanks again.

The group of people I have associated with since 1961 has largely been people who smoked pot...I guess we all still do. Never used cocaine or anything that cost more than a six pack,never saw anybody else do it tho I know some did. The whole senario is backed by the religious right, fueled by anecdotle horror stories, unbeliveable hysteria.

My 18 year old smokes, so does his 23 year old brother, pot that is not cigarettes. I hit the roof if they go tobacco way, truly addictive and dangerous. When I was 18 I was drinking whisky and getting into fights, lucky to have survived. They ahve better sense than I had.

I don't see a lot to fear in pot or pschedelics....the rest of that stuff can be pretty bad..and should be illegal but maybe we should have a care for our rights.. ( They ) are just using drugs to corral us the better. When all is said and done we have to be responsibile for ourselves and ours to thwe extent possible.

alexismlokeesol__A
Your question was directed at folk far more knowledgable than I. But since they're sleeping and I'm not you're stuck with me. here are my answers to your questions. I shall watch with interest how the real sages@kitco answer you later..I mean no offence


Q Can you tell me where the world stands financially?
A. Up sh!t Creek with barbed wire for a paddle.


Q What is the underlying cause of this phenomenom?

A Credit too easily available. Concepts of Risk being ignored

Q What are the perspective of the present situation?
A As I child I remember peering over a viewing platform at Niagra falls. The height and rushing water gave me vertigo for the only time in my life.

Q What are the actions to be taken, to survive and to profit?
A Read kitco. Think hard. Move slow, and quiet, carry a big stick. Store gold for the future.

alexismlokeesol__A: ( Thank goodness for cut'n paste ) First off, please see if Bart, aka Maximum Leader, will change your handle to something we can pronounce. Then, set down with us a spell and maybe we can figger something out. ...... In the meantime welcome to the House of Kitco.

fiveliter: Of course. The issue is always one of expansion of power. The social issue serves only as the means.

You do it all the time. You are regulated by it all the time. It's just a hot button word. V chip. Tell your kid what he can or can't do. Drive 65.
Don't stay up past 11. Don't eat spinach. Hate those religious right guys. We must KILL them. Get real. Are you Nazis? High and mighty. I don't think so.

But don't blow that smoke my way. Or breathe in my direction. Or think it's better than a cigarrette. I will say that if it makes you less tense, smoke one right now.

Did an anagram of the above. Came up with "smoke exile also". Would guess him to be a believer in Silver, as well as Gold.

Earl
eater /eatee XLENT!. Reminds me of my first ever fishing expedition. My friend and teacher kindly offered that my casts might be confounded by my lure, I corrected him, it was the luree causing the problem.

I believe the site looks at works fine for the amount of money we pay to access it.. : ) Therefore the complaints are totally unwarranted. Bart has done a great job with the site, so what if the thing breaks every now and then.

NOTICE: Victor Weintraub will be on CNBC on Monday August 3 between 3:30 and
4:00 PM
July 25, 1998
SHORT TERM RATING: 5 UNATTRACTIVE
INTERMEDIATE TERM RATING: 5 UNATTRACTIVE
PERIODIC CONTRACTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT DIMENSIONS
Don't blame the market sell off this past week on FED Chairmen Greenspan and
his testimony before Congress. The sell off
was already in the market before he spoke. Last week I went extremely
negative on the market and again nailed a significant
market turn. The fact that I can do this with some consistence indicates
that the market does not react to news but rather that
news is an excuse for market action relied upon by the popular press.
Last week the Stock Market had a very bad time of it. The DOW lost 400.61
points ( 4.29% ) , the S & P 500 lost 3.87%, the
NASDAQ lost 3.87%, the Wilshire Small Cap lost 5.78% and the Russell 2000
lost 5.14%. Market internals were horrendous
as you would expect in a sell off of that magnitude. The Advance-Decline
line averaged negative 985 daily. New lows
averaged 164 daily and were at their highest number on Friday when there
were 245 new lows. The daily average for new
highs was only 66. These are extremely weak numbers. Volume expanded into
the sell off and then contracted as buyers took
cover and the market declined in a vacuum. The secondary averages were
weaker than the blue chips. The charts of many of
the Gorilla cap market leaders seem to be breaking down, they are really
just a bunch of big Monkeys.
MARKET SEGMENTS have swung modestly to the oversold side. Of the 78 only 17
are positive ( rated 1 and 2 ) , 28 are
negative ( rated 4 and 5 ) and 33 are neutral. This is not an extreme and is
inconclusive. The FIRSTCAPITAL
OSCILLATOR ( FCO ) is at 49 down from 58 last week and the Inflection Line is
at 28 down from 57 last week. Both are
declining rapidly in sync. The FCO went negative as of the close on Monday
July 20.
The Put/Call ratio is at 0.65 and the P/C ratio for the OEX is 1.10. This
indicator gave a negative with values of 0.59 and 0.95
on Thursday. The Option Volatility Index ( VIX ) is at 23.13 up from 16.88
last week and hit a peak of 25.26 mid day on
Friday. This obvious change of direction of the VIX is a negative. There
were extremely high negative tick numbers all week,
the highest was -1447 at the low on Friday. Ticks did not appear to be
indicating a support level. In summary the short term
emotional indicators are negative.
Although I had expected that last week would be a large down week, I was
surprised by the momentum and severity of the
decline, it was more than even I anticipated. There is a high possibility of
a waterfall effect this week like we had last October.
This decline is not near being over and as yet there is no indication of
support building, no sign of a bottom yet. I would not
expect to see a bottom until the FCO goes below 20 and then gives a
confirmed bottom indication. This is the kind of market
that will kill the buy on the dips gang. There appears to be a lot of
momentum behind the decline.
The question is where is the first bounce going to be. It is a good bet that
the major averages will easily penetrate their June
lows and continue lower. I would expect the major averages to penetrate
their 200 day moving averages ( DOW 8400, S & P
500 1040 and NASDAQ 1730 ) . It is worthwhile to note that the Russell 2000 is
around even for the year. This appears to be
an important market top, it is not prudent to buy the dips to try to play a
rally. This is very high risk and on return land.
Charts of the S & P 500, the NASDAQ, the Wilshire Small Cap and the Russell
2000 are at the bottom of this page. This
gives you the opportunity to compare the Gorillas and the Monkeys.
The long term DOW CHART has been updated as usual. To see the chart just
click on the link.
For the mid year revision to the ECONOMIC REVIEW just click on the link.
If you are a speculator or trader I think that it is time for the sidelines.
My advice to intermediate and long term conservative
investors is that the market is still very highly priced and over extended
and due for a correction. The market has had a
parabolic hyper extension. There is a high probability that we will see a
contraction in high P/E ratios later in the year.
Prudence dictates the sidelines for those concerned with capital
preservation and those who are cognizant of risk verses
reward. This is a high risk and expensive market.
The CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION is as follows: BONDS
50%, STOCKS 0%,
CASH 50%. Cash means short maturity bonds ( under two years ) .
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Smokin
http://www.hempbc.com/

Rallies are soft and easily cave in.

Even with Greenspan's dire warnings ( again ) this week, the Federal Reserve
isn't about to upset the apple cart. Consequently, monetary conditions
remain favorable, there is still no APPARENT monetary pin to prick the
bubble, and without that - this would be the most unusual bear market in 50
years.

You should now be out of all positions except those which you have
consciously decided to hold through a bear market. From here on, the exit
opportunities could fewer and fewer.

We are maintaining our 8% position in 2 gold stocks - particularly after
Greenspan's comments this week that showed he has little doubt the current
imbalance will unfold with higher inflation and interest rates.

We think the political upheaval will lead to rebounding confidence and stock
prices in Japan.

Winston: At the risk of misinterpreting your comments; I don't think anyone has the responsibility for saving people from their own foolishness. Free speech, within the accepted confines of civil discourse, provides all who engage a wonderful oppportunity to learn something. Even if it the ageless lesson of not following anyone blindly.

In the two years that I have visited this site, it has been my firm conviction that Bart has always erred on the side of unfettered discussion. Even in those moments when the primate cage was in raucous turmoil and rational discussion was impossible.

By contrast, Avid maintains a much stricter code of conduct. But, in both cases, the objective appears to be one of keeping the discussion steered between the ditches and not one of saving the gullible from themselves.

Are you, by any chance from the Niagara Falls area, origionally,
and are you by any chance going to be at the Toronto meeting on
July 30th?

Aurator: Speaking of fishing - you did, you know - ..... had a wonderful experience last week. The outboard engine stolen, so unceremoniously, in March has been returned. All praise be to the fish gods ...... and the Clackamas County Sheriff. ...... If yer ever out this way, it is now possible to offer you the opportunity to work on that lousy back cast of yours.

It got lost in the miasma of Earldom for me to make much sense
of it. But I'm sure you thought it was a good point so that's
all that matters. And of course you gratuitously included an
aside praising Bart for allowing you to publish somewhere, since
your coevals no longer include your wizened prose in the faculty newsletter.

As far as no one on this site being ate-o-ated, I would have
to offer a counterexample. Hmmmm, let's see, where did I
file that counterexample?

EB - Did you see the 500 today, er, 497?

Earl 01:36
Zigackly! By letting the record stand and exercising absolute minimum "umpiring/404ing" Bart has allowed the words posted here to exist forever. That's a long time. The hand that guides is ultimately our own selves. While I am unproud of some of my comments. The knowedge that the while some words shine others tarnish for "all time" has provoked a far deeper education in netiquette than an overbearing referee who blows the whistle all the time. Truly we are blessed. All Hail Deus ex Machina!

May he keep his hands-off...

Drug illegality has not and will not work just as prohibition of alcohol did not work except to make those willing to break the law VERY, VERY rich. The bootlegers of yesterday are among the richest and most powerful people of today.

Sharefin: For all of their sagacity and intricate technical analysis, the professional market watchers remain as clueless as the rest of us. I subscribed to James Stacks letter for several years. He is thorough technician with great insight. Unfortunately, bubbles are about herd mentality and defy rational analysis. This one is also complicated by exogenous events of the "last ditch" sort.

Reify

I live about 12,000 miles from Niagra Falls. I have been there twice. Once close to 40 years ago and again last year. I regret, I shall be unable to attend the Toronto meeting. I should very much like to be there to meet so many kitcoites and lurkers. Perhaps I can attend next year as I hope to be in Europe for The solar eclipse of August 11 1999 in Aldernay ( Channel Islands ) . Perhaps we can try a European meeting in 99, yes?

Hep.nut: Upon reading your inimitable prose the other day, I was overcome with an unusually sentimental desire to form a welcome committee. Fortunately, good sense prevailed. The good sense that comes of knowing that rehab is useless.

Without saying a word to you, of you or about you; you have managed to exchange all those warm and affectionate thoughts I harbored in your regard. .........With deep regret, I remain on the lynch committee. "Millions for sanction, not one penny for rehab".

Earl
Though, out of my newfound sensitivity I hesitate, I still, I must, I beg to differ with your "the professional market watchers remain as clueless as the rest of us"

They have far more clues than the rest of us. Professional market watchers are selling* their prejudices as analysis. We give it all away for free. Thereby learning from each other, though perhaps our bank managers may be more pleased if we dispensed advice for profit.

BTW wonder how Peutz is doing. Always took my hat off to him, for the reasons above.....

gogold--Where do you see Gold and Silver going over the next 1, 3, 6, and 12 months? I guess-- slightly up, flat, up and UP. What do think? Also, I think you are way off base and unfair in some of your critiques of Kitco posters. The 01:36 post by Earl was a fine comment on what Bart is trying to do with the Kitco forum. Bart has been remarkably benign and tolerant. He never kicked anyone off this site who didn't deserve it. Now...how will Gold go, gogold?

Auric
We gotta double!

Earl
Shall be honoured to take up your offer for improving my cast. There are many many here who enjoy the pleasure of fishing. For me, much of the pleasure is the exploration of this beautiful land. Au_Producer knows much more of fishing some parts of NZ than I, missed his visit last summer.

Dawn. Broad fan river. Out West illuminated by red dawn, rising above the morning mist the towering snow-covered Southern Alps. Seemingly so close you can stretch an arm to touch the distant mountains. Eastwards, a red sun piercing the Pacific horizon clad in mist, a few sea-birds, mist, waiting for the salmon to run.

Go gold!

Aurator: Friends should not let friends use Wintel. Send him one of your spare Mac's. Actually, Win98 bears a strong corporate resemblance to a '58 Edsel. ..... To get this new machine up and running completely, I finally was able to scrounge a copy of Win95 with all of the OEM upgrades. Now everything is fine. It's just amazing that they will not sell the most recent version of Win95. Only available to OEMs.

Aurator: About your syrupy but really swell pome? Sorry, but it's not about "red sunsets" 'n other such balderdash. It's about killing something and putting into a pot to eat. Listen to your "first people". They are speaking to you but you insist on writing silly pomes. Pomes that are as nourishing as deer track stew. Work this into yer pome: The hunter's lament: "I saw lotsa tracks".

There is a small but ornery little gap at 362. Platinum will want to fill that.. if it can. I am still very hopeful for a nice run this year. I will look to buy more a few bucks lower.

If hard metal shows up in Japan, we will see the lows probed. Palladium wants to go to 280 again, seen it before, no biggie. Watch for more curious Russian announcements. They are contradicting themselves weekly.

I like it

Yes

PS
Is anyone is wondering why the fall in the rand has not affected platinum like it has gold? Virtually all PGMs from SA are on long term contract and are delivered based in on average of the last several weeks spot price. If the weakness in the rand continues, or conversely, if the strength in the dollar stays.. how you say..???.uh. Strong? All metals will slowly sink back to the lows. If someone could administer a swift kick in the dollars gonads, and the yen and the rand rise, get along lil doggy

PS2
If silver stocks drop below 80 mil, Im layering in some longs. This could be an explosive week for silver. Expect stocks to disappear only to reappear later in the week. I would be surprised with anything less than 50 cents volatility this week.

OK

No more PSs

None

PS3
Sorry about the lil doggy thingie

Indeedy

I am

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/980803/3gold.htm

RJ: As well, I show a small gap aroung 372 which could be a logical bottom if PL still has some legs. SWC has also firmed up from its recent bottom which should be a positive sign for the PGMs. We shall,.... how do say, "watch together". "Yes?"

Q

Earl

My sentiments zigackly! I am easily confounded, and so I was with the return of the Upchuckcat that everyone loves to hate.

I mean, here we were, john goggled, you were behaving civily. I was chagrined at my prior pissed-offedness at you. You were welcomed back my many. I, too felt a comradeship with your return, the prodigal son, hll, I love all iconoclasts.

I know you'll say something now that immediately shines light on your IQ that is in the high 160's and may/not put myself & others down.

Pull your head in googles. I predict you'll go down in history as being the first ate o ate. So who cares?

I wonder how much rope Bart's gonna give ya this time.

Don't bother to reply.

Dang it Earl, I've not yet caught a salmon! Wisht i lived down that way so the memory of the picture does not awe me. sorry to burden you with pomeish prose.

If I have my own personality, then I am not worth the trouble of saving.
Does that about sum it up?

My problem is this: Bart comes on all sanctimonious and sprinkles
in some good-natured fun about consulting a Russian dictionary and
everyone says, "Yep, good old Bart" and "what a great site" and
forgets that I have been kicked off more than one time while the
good old boys like Disney and Vronsky can call me "cat feces" and
a "homo" and Earl can spew "hep.nut" and that's what doesn't
get censored. What gets censored or chased away by virtue of
Bart not doing anything about it is people like Farfel and
Cherokee and others without legitimate names and addresses
getting everybody riled up with utter nonsense about how gold
is going to throw tires into the crowd it will be running so
fast. Look, I'm more in tune with what I do than anybody.
Bart has 808'ed me more than once under the guise of "majority
voted" or "wasting bandwidth serenading Disney" or whatever
convenient reason he has, but the rules don't seem to apply
to people who are always at heart ( or by agenda ) pro-gold
or definitely leaning that way. I don't fault Bart for that,
it helps his business, but Earl has always been one to say
"Hell, let's get some rubes in here and if they don't know
what they're doing or what kind of whitewash I'm spreading,
that's there own fault". I like to be invested in something
that goes up or down on its own merits, not on how many people
we can fool into investing in it.

yumm!!

Thanks Bart and Sharefin.

Switched over to Windows 98 and Kitco would not recognize my password. Asked Bart and Sharefin about it. Great minds think alike. They both told me to raid the cookie jar and eat my Kitco cookies. Worked!!!!

You know of course this means you are all going to have to put up with the cra.... err...ahh...wonderful, always on topic, gold information that I post.

and then see in what situations their word applies.

There are a number of algorithms for determining phylogenetic
trees that can have their premises violated ( characters
evolving independently, all branches changing at the
same rate ) yet still give the correct tree. If Bart really
is what he says he is and does with this site what he says
he does, then there is no manner or method of posting that could
possibly be censored, correct?

If not, then why say it?
And why say it with a wink?

gogold

It's not about "if I have my own personality" we all do.The free expression of these crazy iconoclastic goldbuggery personalities is what makes kitco great. No, it's about gratuitous personal insult, that's what pisses people off, and you just did it again at 01:45. Crsus! I can trade insults with the best of ya. But in a forum like this we have to be careful that our insults are not personal.

I do welcome a variety of points of view but what's the point in tradin insults? It's not a popularity contest either.

Keep cool till after skool.

there is always one more chop-asaki..............

CHOP-ASAKI....

who knows where the hot wind blows.........tdotssm...
and it is a hot wind..

mwigtp...

cherokee..riding.on.the.hot.westerlies.......

For the most part, my views are not the views of the Kitco populace,
or, if you will, those who have Bart's earpiece. ( Be advised, we are
approaching the door )

So I get booted when I start acting up. Simple as that.
Bart said it himself after the first outing.

Cuz I'm smelling something foul.

gogoldy...

there is a time to stay the hand...and a time for war.....
you best bite your lip........lest i swat it...

gogold

the only ones who do not have Bart's ear on this site are those who have gratuitously and personally insulted individuals posting here. Ludd! I've insulted 250m merkins, 90m brits, 30m stralians, 125m Japanese and thousands of economist and lawyers. Though we trespass the boundaries of taste we resist the cloisters of personal vitriol.

I truly relish ( remember the cannibal thread ) a different point of view, especially one that can stand strong and unmoving despite the slings and arrows of popular opinion, You do not do yourself justice to insult others in such a manner personal.

If you like, I am available, at my usual private consultation rates, for tuition in the ignoble art of invective and insult. In the meantime try exercise the humour muscle

Q: What's the difference between a lawyer and an onion?
A: You cry when you cut up an onion.

...are forming a partnership!!!

Gonna call it Nickgate'98. Will be a bigger hit than Watergate!!

Now,all you Windows 98 knockers out there--time to put up or shut up. I LIKE Windows 98!! Here I am, posting on Kitco, with a window on my left with all my bookmarks on it, and if I get bored I drag up another window and watch a video, while I listen to a cd, then back to Kitco, then check my share prices, then have a beer, Hey, I'm in Internet Nirvana!!!. Don't y'all criticize sumpthin' y'all ain't tried!!! I LIKE it!!!

( Bill--did you get my address for the cheque??? )

Here are the 5 important times to watch in the next 500 days or so. 1 ) Fall 1998--Turmoil in Washington DC and most other federal capitols in the world. 2 ) January 1999--Euro emerges on the scene. 3 ) April 1999--Japan fiscal year starts. Will find out if Japan has computer date problems. 4 ) August 1999--The folks who run the GPS system say they can't guarantee its performance after August. 5 ) January 2000--Well, what can you say? It will arrive exactly on time.

You best not make promises you cannot keep.

How dare you threaten and insult me.

You who couldn't make a good call if
I handed you the phone and dialed the
last five digits.

I forgot who wrote the story that Soylent Green was taken from. You guys are amazing. Never knew so many people have such high regard for this brave SF film I discussed with crusty the other day. Noone I meet here has ever heard of it. Last movie I saw of Edward G Robinson, though have such a crap memory, might be wrong.

Let's meet at "The Tree museum" in Central Park.

...that gold is up almost 35 cents???

I am gonna sell all my gold shares and buy Microsoft!!! Getting tired of losing money, so will settle for a guaranteed 30%/annum to infinity.

Nickgate'98 folks. Great program!!!

( Bill, you promised!!It wasn't in the mail today!! )


G'day cherokee. Long time no see. Good to have you back, mate. Pretty hot, I hear. Hope all is well. cheers, N.

( Lurkers,notice how I am not getting involved in the bunfight??If ya jump into the slops with the pigs--yer gonna get dirty!! )

Dear Salty ..
I admire your efforts to try to find some gracious
way to deal with gogold .. to try to find some good in
him .. to help him find his way in life .
Did you ever see the film "Boys Town" .. who played
Father Flannagan .. Pat O'Brian ?? Spencer Tracy ??
There's no such thing as a bad goldbug

Ps Gold index off 5 .. Rand 6.22.

howdy nick....

e-mail my friend....the pewter with cherokee@hal-pc.org has crashed....
use jsbutch@aol.com....i've some questions, if you've the time.

as for gogold....you must have put 'a lot of thought' into your
nomer....gomer...

gogold.....yar.

cherokee.dotssmfat....giver-of-fat-lips.....mouth.monitor....and.back.

Yes
I saw Boys Town, have to leave the actors and others up to you, but Spencer Tracy sounds right.

How about The loneliness of the Long Distance Runner?

All: I know some of you are interested in the Fatima prophesies. I think I have 'the official' Fatima site -- one reason I think this is so is that the orientation is relatively neutral -- without overt threats of imminent disaster. Also there is much more information available than in anything else I've seen. I think it was 6pak who expressed some interest in this. Can't remember.
Now, I am not Catholic, so I cannot interpret this as well as others might. But I think it is worth a read because the home site allows access to a summary of the 3 Prophesies of Fatima.
It appears that the 3rd prophesy has to do with problems within the Catholic Church itself, and inability of the Pope's followers to speak up if they believe that the Pope ( and high level members of the Church ) is doing something wrong. This would explain why it has been kept secret since the 60's, despite a promise to release the information at that time. This may be highly significant, give Father Mordecai Martin's concern that a future Pope may have less than honorable intentions. He in fact claims that there are already corrupt factions within the Catholic Church.
Again, I make no guarantees that this site is genuine -- but it is the most genuine I've seen so far. One must always be aware that even a genuine site may summarize the Fatima prophesies in the context of the Catholic Church, when in reality the original intention of whoever or whatever presented these prophesies may have been different. One must always remember that information given is almost always distorted by the human viewer.
A little on this web site posted. What appears to be happening is the Father Nicholas Gruner has started a movement to restore faith in the Catholic Church, and to reveal all the prophesies of Fatima. Unfortunately, he is being censured for this by high level members of the Catholic Church, whom apparently cannot tolerate dissention of any kind, even if it appears to be constructive. As you can see, he has many supporters within the 'rank and file'. I do not know if he has support within the vatican.

http://www.fatima.org/appealrelease.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980726/international/stories/rogue_bankers_1.html

Bart: Thanks for your post this early AM. I certainly do not think you have been doing anything that can be considered censure. On the other hand, I do believe that you should continue in your efforts to prevent outright disruption of this site by anyone. I wish this was an easy matter.
My only suggestion is the one I think you are using already -- the disruption factor, and violation of the original rules/guidlines you set up for this site. Healthy dissention is one thing, personal insults and invective are quite another. That is never constructive in my opinion, because it means that ( genreally ) one poster is dominating everything on this site. This site has been quite harmonious, until recently. What I have seen today looks relatively mild -- but what concerns me is that we may have more disruption again very soon.
Again -- I offer my gratitude for what you have done to allow us to post here -- it is clearly one of the most interesting sites on the Net, even if there are so many gold bugs that cannot or will not accept that gold can actually go down in apparent value.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980727/yen_offere_6.html

Nick@C
I have just seen on TV an interview with a survivor of the triple tsunami that killed 1600+ people on Papua New Guinea and recalled your tale spun months ago of the tsunamis you witnessed in Hawaii.

Little discussion here.

BJ just called me "merkin" as a perjorative. betta go stack some zzz

ya I's heading to

GOLDEN slumbers fill your eyes....

All: AG has spoken. He wants to jawbone the markets down, so that he does not have to raise rates. If he does, he knows he risks going down in history as the only FED chairman that started his tenure with a crash, and ended it with a crash.
My opinion is that the Oldman is closest to the truth about what will bring down this bull market -- the political fortunes of WJC. If WJC's star falls in a big way, the general equities market will go with him. As to gold in these deflationary times, I'm not sure. My guess is that gold would go up, because the US dollar would go down.
So WJC's fortunes and the commodity price indices seem to be the things to watch.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980727/tokyo_stoc_1.html

Aurator: Great chicken standard story! It certainly does help to thaw the chicken first, and make sure that stray cat does not get caught in the machinery. And -- what did become of the cat? Another statistic?
My guess is that above a certain critical chicken velocity -- Mach x, it will not matter if the chicken is frozen or not. Ever fall off waterskis? The faster you go, the harder it gets when you hit the water.

http://www.iht.com:80/IHT/TODAY/THU/FIN/invest.html

http://www.iht.com:80/IHT/TODAY/FRI/FIN/turmoil.html

Please email me before latest torrow, as I'll be sailing
westward by then. Reify@sitcom.co.il

'Merkan' is not a pejorative, it is a euphemism.

cheers, Nickgate'98

Auric: Just a thought. Is the EURO year 2000 compliant? And if so, what about the other currencies that make up the EURO? Could the 'powers that be' be putting more effort into the EURO, and less into the member currencies? We should be democratic in our 'conspiracy' theories and assume they are only 'USA-o-Centric' only. Personally, I ascribe to the RJ philosophy -- that countries rarely can enforce conspiracies even if they wanted to -- simply because they cannot cooperate long enough to make them effective. One point in favor of not having a world government.
aurator: As the well deserved worldsmith of Kitco, perhaps you can help us find a word to describe the tendency of conspiracy theorists to consider only their native country as the target of same.

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairmen Greenspan gave his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the House banking panel on July 21-22, 1998. His commentary may be summarized as:

THE US STOCK MARKET IS RUNNING AMOK;
THE ASIAN CRISIS IS RUNNING AMOK;
WE'VE GOT SERIOUS PROBLEMS, SHIRLEY,
Now the Gold Standard on the other hand

History tells us that a "significant" market correction is
inevitable, but when the crash may come is anyone's guess,
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned
Wednesday as he resumed testimony in his
Humphrey-Hawkins report to Congress.

In 1967 Economic Consultant Greenspan published a now
very famous report called "GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM."
Within only six years of Mr. Greenspan's insightful and prophetic observations, the precious metals markets exploded to
astronomical values. Obviously, HIS COMMENTS DID NOT
CAUSE the gold price to rise - however, his keen observation
HERALDED WHAT WAS TO COME. Let's see what happened
in the precious metals market during the six years after his
very monumental pronouncements in 1967.

- Gold soared about 400% from $35/oz to over $175/oz.

- Silver more than doubled in value from $1.29 to over $2.60/oz.

- Gold Stocks as measured by TSE Mines Index rose more than 350%.

This begs the question. Was U.S. Fed Chairman's seemingly
innocuous aside about the GOLD STANDARD just an off the cuff remark an innocent aside or is it indeed another prophetic pronouncement of the future?! The real answer might make you RICH!

YOU BE THE JUDGE see the report. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky072598.html

http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/27safi.html
Worth a read. Crucial political shift -- relevant to the equities markets and the dollar, IMHO.

Silver,gold both doing nicely. Down a little overnight and sitting calmly. Now, if we can just get to about 10:45 or so with no turbulance we'll see if we can pull back on the stick a little...

Had one ear trained on CBC TV news-overnight bus. report with news editor
Pat Bollens. Talkin' about Cdn buck being down overnight. Bollens last comments were similar to "They ( whoever THEY are ) want us to have a currency similar to the EURO. Interestin'-Yes!!!!!. It wud not be consistent with Bollens to make wild comments.

BOLLENS remarks were made in light as to discussions underway by SOMEONE
to address our wingless looney.

The theme of the program is deflation. The moral is: don't buck the trend. The winners are those who haven't heard about gold and silver etc. The loosers are those who think that good will over come bad that good sound money will replace the paper skyscrappers.

This isn't a happy ending picture show. More like a Chinese motion picture - they always end sadly with complete demoralization of the hero.

Gold and silver won't rally - they will fade. The Xau will break further, the CRB will crack 200, gold will sink to below $280. Silver will be in the $4s, the dollar will continue to rally, Japanese stocks and all of Asia will continue to fall, business will contract, the contageion will spread. Our government officals can not effect a cure - we are headed for a lower standard of living to be brought home to the upper middle class and the Joe Six Packs when unemployment starts to rise and stocks lose half their value in a depression melt down.

Gold and Silver etc will only rise when the government in desperation begins to print money as a way out. By then all rights will have been suspended including the right to own gold.

as i said, i hope you are right

BUFFORD - Sorry, I missed your question yesterday. My understanding is that the property is for sale, as it contains no significant amounts of silver or base metals, only about 2 MM ounces of gold. Oroperu Resources ( a 50% joint venture partner ) has earned its 50% share by spending $1MM on the project. That is all I've been able to gather from the reports.........Your statement about the comparison between Pan American and Silver Standard, is on the money in my view. I dumped My Silver Standard stock about $2/share ago.

Date: Sun Jul 26 1998 14:02
BUFFORD ( @Silverbaron****************PAASF financing Rusian silver project ) ID#253246:

Silverbaron,

Financing the Rusian silver project is going to take alot of $$$$ and
I was wondering if you read on any of the reports that you obtained
did anyone takes a stab a putting a price on what their share
of the Tres Cruces gold deposit is worth. In their anual report
they mention 2 million oz of gold with more drilling to be done.

The only person that I hearI even mention Tres Cruces is W.Fleckenstein
and obviously he works for them. I never see any of the newsletter
writers even acknolwledge Pan American Gold deposit in Peru.
All the infracture to exploit this is already in place right next to
their "q" mine. In their anul report they mention that they plan
the sell this gold deposit and have stated that they have had
several senoirs looking at the property.

The management of PAASF is way ahead of the game compared
to Quatermain at Silver Standard.

Here we go again! 9,000 WILL NOW CAP THE DOW FOR THE NEXT 18 MONTHS!

When you've made it to the TOP, the only direction left is DOWN! The GRAVITY of the situation will only make the trip DOWN FAAAAASTER! Goin' DOWN! S& P DOWN 4.20. Make that 4.40. Make that 4.60! OH scheiss! : )

We'll know before noon. I have spoken. Both silver and gold look real good right now. You couldn't get a flatter flatline than I see approaching the New York open.

S&P down about four points on globex. Looks like an up day for the DOW.

When you've reached the TOP, EVERYBODY WANTS TO GO DOWN! If you want to go UP, then you've got to WAIT PATIENTLY for the GOIN' DOWN CROWD TO EXIT! God help you if you get on at the TOP and want to go HIGHER! It's a mighty LONG RIDE DOWN before the 'vator crowd wants to go back UP! S&P Futures now DOWN 4.80. Make that DOWN 4.90! Anybody got vertigo? : )

You picked the right line, Donald:

This Ponzi scheme has to end; and it won't be pretty.

Missed seeing comments by Dines on gold digest site this month,anybody willing to share his mkt. comments???

the opening of COMEX. It's a flat line.

Gold's pretty flat too. I'm hoping they stay flat at least until London fixing time if not London close. Let's see how much turbulence we get as Comex opens.

Gold should be a flat-line; thats the whole point of it! It's everything else that moves.

If'n you want to go HIGHER, you don't climb aboard an elevator that's already at the TOP and comn' on DOW ( N ) , you board the 'vator that's already at the BOTTOM and RIDE it back UP to the TOP! It may be nearly EMPTY at the BOTTOM, but as it RISES, it tend to get ever more CROWDED! The emptier the better, nicht wahr? : ) The S&Pevator now goin' DOWN 4.80. Make that 4.90. Make that 5.20! Make that 5.30! Heilige Scheiss!

Dax now goin' NEGATIVE!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980727/markets_pr_1.html

http://www2.canoe.com/JamMusicArtistsC/clemons_clarence.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980727/japan_june_1.html

2 Tablespoons Asian contagion.
2 Tablespoons lower earnings reports.
2 Tablespoons overvalued PE's.
2 Tablespoons low dividends yield.
2 Tablespoons of failing market internals.
1 Dash of Fed greesnpeak.
3 Piches of higher interest rates.
1 Box of market PANIC MIX.
Stir vigourously and bake at AU 450 for 20 months until done.

S& P NOW DOWN 7.90! OH MY!

"If you don't have anything good to say about someone, you don't have anything worth saying."
mama rules. off to the office to pump oil. GOGOLD BUGS!!!!!

S& P FUTUES DOWN 8.30. Make that 8.40. Make that 8.70! Dow now below its 50-day moving average!

Alas, there's what should be and there's what is.

Silver's getting ready to blow again. I don't know if we'll be able to hold it down till our planned lift off. Maybe we can keep it down another hour.

Gold is going down.

New Japanese Prime Minister--more of the same old Hascheissmoto!

ACHTUNG! ACHTUNG! BARTON BIGGS NOW SAYS WE HAVE ENTERED A BEAR MARKET!!!!!!!! Good Gollum Miss Mollum!

http://www.weeklypost.com/980727/980727a.htm

EQUITY MONEY MOVING INTO MONEY MARKET FUNDS BIGGS TIME!!!

The PMevator is gettin' ready to RISE!

Call me a dippy! Just added to my silver longs. Go silver! Looking for 6.30 soon.

I really am having real problems with the inflation/deflation arguments. I just finished one of the financial articles posted this morning. It discussed the prospect of the Asia crisis exporting their deflation to the US. Now I just don't understand this statement. Are commodity prices declining in the Asian economies? My understanding is that commodity prices have just exploded in these economies and the HIGHER prices have been the cause of a decline in demand ( e.g., India vis a vis silver and gold ) . The truer label to put on prices in Asia is hyperinflation, not deflation!

What about the US? If you believe AG is at least worth his weigh in salt, he is concerned about the resurgence of inflation and not deflation. He clearly discouraged the expectation that the FED would lower interest rates anytime soon ( as would be the case in the event of deflation ) .

IMHO, we are in the midst of the worse currency crisis ever. RELATIVE commodity prices expressed in the different currencies are changing, and there has been slack demand due to the financial market collapses in Asia and other factors ( El Nino ) , but there is not deflation. It would be interesting to see a worldwide price index for commodities expressed in terms of a basket of currencies weighed by their consumption of each commodity.

If inflation/deflation is in fact a monetary phenomenon, then we should be expecting rapid inflation. Monetary aggregates have been increasing over the past year at a fast pace. With an 18 month or so lag time, we should start seeing signs of the impact of this soon.

Finally, also IMHO, I don't believe a downturn in financial assets will cause a fall in commodity prices. Rather, it will encourage a move from investing in paper assets to investing in real assets ( with a collapse in their financial markets, are Asians more or less likely to store their money in a bar of gold or a stock certificate? ) .

.....Away to play with my OEX PUETZ, SPYders and DIAmonds...oh my!

Confidence, man, confidence!

ANYBODY FOR LIMIT DOWN BY 10:00?

Sorry guys, I couldn't hold em down any longer. Here we go again. Have a happy ride.

10 POINTS BELOW FAIR VALUE!

Senator Hatch says IMPEACH if Klinton ignores subpoena. See
http://www.nypostonline.com/news/4449.htm
Anyone know specifically the day Mike McCurry resignation announced? Believe it was the 23rd. Could be this was the day Klinton was subpoened?? Maybe Mike wanted to let it out and got told to cool it. Had to wait on an "event " to hide it behind! There were some reports that indicated he was already going to leave, maybe this was the trigger to say ENOUGH ALREADY!
Thanks sharefin for the GOX info. NEM draggin it down.

Cyclist: I always enjoy your input as one of many ways of verifying my own technical analysis. I was wondering if you have any cycle information on the Heating Oil market. I've done really well on the short side for the last month or two. However, on the Weekly as well as Daily charts, bullish divergences are all over the place in all of my indicators. IN addition, looking at a chart you see a nice diagonal triangle that has formed on both the Weekly and Daily charts. It might be finished, however, there might be final washout type spike down. To me a pretty decent rally looks like it's about to take place. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance!

Yup, guess WE are the dispsters we were talking about last week. Just beefed up my long silver position too. Six dollars or bust.

DJ -- Thanks again for your channels and analysis. I've come to depend upon it as part of all the cud I chew.

Truly a sad tale...no room for domestic violence, and in the Keys no less!!!

Run downstairs. Push forward on the stick. Run upstairs. See what that did, ooops too much. Run downstairs. Pull back on the stick. Run upstairs. See what that did, hmmmmnnn a tad too much. Run back downstairs. This is getting old....

Move the stick upstairs.

Thanks for the platinum insights. Inclined toward your view; however, can see arguments for both directions. Hope you're making money.

Don't forget that you were told! : )

China ( s )
In keeping with China's usually prickly statements on Taiwan, the State Council renewed a pledge to seek peaceful unification with the island but added that Beijing "will not commit itself not to resort to force.''

Korea ( s )
SEOUL, South Korea North Korea Monday denounced U.S. plans to deploy warships closer to the divided Korean peninsula as "tantamount to a declaration of war'' and threatened to take "powerful self-defensive steps.''

Keep an eye on Georgia...

S&P futures open in Chicago @ DOWN 2.50 but now DOWN 7.50!

Just seconds before the market opening the Feds jumped in
once again to buy S& P 500 futures using our tax dollars.

This has been going on now for a long time every time the
market is set for a drubbing.

to access Kitco.

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 13+!! These are supposed to be the GENERALS! Looks like they're now in full retreat mode! : )

WAY TOO BULLISH!! MORE TO COME ON THE DOW ( N ) side!

I'm trying to keep it fairly level till after 10:45 NY time. Then we'll give it some throttle an ease back on the stick.

Oh, I see. Move the stick upstairs. Then I wouldn't have to run up and down. Hmmmmnnn. The stick seems to work ok where it's at. I'm afraid to bring it upstairs. Maybe I could take my monitor downstairs.

In the free market it is competition by which the correctness of acts are refined. An entity that can best serve the customer GETS AND KEEPS the customer. And so for the inverse: An entity that cannot serve well the customer will soon have no customers. The government, however, has no competition. Only by revolution or war is government's policies proven wrong. Spud says "1776 now!" The irony is that Americans -- no, the world ( through the IMF ) -- are so far beyond the threshhold of tolerance by which those late-18th century guys ( cf. America, France ) were pushed to revolt as to make those revolutionaries look like they were throwing a tantrum over petty infractions. But the frog in the pot of slow-boiling water alters not his payroll 401k deductions, but has his eyes set upon a new Ford Expedition.

I mean goes! DOW ( N ) 50! NASDAQ DOWN 22!

SUI8 rising, Gollum. APH was looking for $5.55 about mid-morning today -- that is, one may infer, around 10:30 - 11:00 a.m. New York. How tightly is the airflow causing you to grip the stick?

-75 AND PLUNGING! Where's the PPT?

I believe that we are in a bear market but the small investor has not realized it yet and is still pumping their money into the markets. It is this reason that the market has had problems finding direction in previous sessions. I would have to believe that the coming problems in Asia and Russia not to mention the wild card problems ( Y2k ) that are hanging in the balance will force the market commentators to start mentoning the bear word. When this happens mom and dad will try and find safe havens. Feels like we are closer, but realisticly it could take many months for this scenario to unfold and events such as Y2k could send em running for the exits sooner. I am looking for a lower gold price in the coming weeks prior to the mother of all runs, maybe 250-260 if we are lucky. When we see this final drop, I will become 75-90% metals invested. Sounds extreme but drastic times call for drastic measures.

5.55 was/is a critical baseline. If it fell through 5.55, it would go on down. It's not going to do that.

Analyst George Ure makes an audacious prediction that the DOW will plummet to the 8300 area WITHIN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS.

The basis of his dramatic forecast is a Chart correlation between two periods: 1920 to 1929 and 1988 to 1998. Mr. Ure doesn't mince words. It flatly states: "Bull Market Dead!"

Whether you agree or not, his report is thought-provoking - and therefore should be read by prudent investors.

"REPLAYING 1929 4 WEEKS TO 8300" may be seen at the URL below. It
will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ure072798.html

Don't forget one important point. When the economy starts slowing down, the US government will begin printing tons of money to re-pay bad loans lost to Asia, corporations, and other guaranteed loans.

To a politician, inflation is better than unemployment ( unemployment = voters without any income! ) . I can hear Clinton and Gore now: "What's wrong with 25% inflation? It's good for the economy! To the working people of America, their homes will increase in value every year. They'll be more inclined to spend their money now ( and stimulate the economy ) , rather than next year when their cash will be worth less."

Go GOLD!

Gold stocks holding up well so far with the market plunging and bullion down about a buck. Still think a final selling climax is in the cards soon. But another possible trough scenario would be bullion and gold stocks continuing to hold up well as the Dow plunges. We shall see.

and, with Interest rates @ record low rates.
Interesting, watch for new home sales numbers next.

I still don't trust any numbers out of this White House ...... I think we will see more clearly soon.

HighRise

ARMS INDEX @.69-- STILL WAY TOO COMPLACENT! NO MARKET CAPITULATION YET! MDSP DOWN 103???? CAN THIS BE??

SWEDES PONDER NUCLEAR SHUTDOWN BEFORE THE END OF 1999!

year 2000:

This Administration and Congress are owned lock stock and barrel by Wall Street and the Fortune 500. And these honchos do not go for inflation at all.

Somewhat higher inflation yes when the Asian economies recover. But nuch higher inflation? Not very likely without something like a blowup in the Persian Gulf.

ONLY 11% OFF THE HIGHS! How about 7400 ( -20% ) or 6500 ( -30% ) --Barton Biggs shocking prediction over the next two months!

Rolling on this thing --

Everyone talks 1929, 1929. What few fail to realize is that the SECOND worse depression we've gone through was in 1937 -- due indirectly to government intervention. Trading was very thin at the time due to the elimination of investors of substance mainly by the imposition of exorbitant income and captial gains taxation ( albeit this is an over-simplification ) . Throw in a little of the panic element and boom, we went right back to where we were -- but now more jaded and fretful than before. It was not government works and such ( i.e. Hoover Dam, WPA, et al. ) by which we got out of the Depression. It was the war.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980728/perspective/perspective1.html

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980725/editorial.html


has the y2k bug become nothing more than an excuse for some programmers to make a quick buck?

*sigh* ...

email me... tolerant1@msn.com thanks...

UNTIL THE ARMS INDEX HURDLES 1.5!

Nationally Syndicated columnist & market maven, Rick Ackerman,
shares his insights with us. He talks about the Market's Madness
of assigning a 340 times multiple market cap to a company barely
profitable.

"On the same day, shares of a well-known company listed on the
New York Stock Exchange changed hands for 340 times trailing
12-month earnings."

" Still, you can't blame stockbrokers for hustling their
customers. If they didn't do it so very well, huge wads of
unspent 401 ( k ) money would be piling up on their desks and
bursting the doors of back-office safes."

Mr. Ackerman's full report at URL below. Delete extra "en" letters
In word "golden"

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ackerman072798.html

: ( !

FWIW Went long on the beans with 559 stop.Nem is reaching
time and price objective.
Straddler: Oils in general should have a bearmarket rally
starting next week,After that shorting is the name of the game

NASDAQ NOW DOWN 30.47!!

Down 30% is a little too optimistic. These things usually go to extremes. With one of the highest pe ratios ever now, expect extremely low pe's before this bear market is over.

Not counting my gold holdings I am 100% short the market. When the dow breaks 8525 I will be 150% short. I will not go long again until after Jan. 2000. We are now witnessing history in the making.

If everyone is in their seats, we'll start giving 'er some throttle. We want a fair amount of airspeed before we eas back on the stick. Don't want to stall.

I like your logic! The next 18 months are gonna' shock us ALL--even PUETZ, URE and HACKERMAN--heh,heh,heh!

Do I need to fasten my seatbelt ?

Thanks BART!

Look out BEEEELOW! Earnings only 3.4% above last year; only 2.4% above expectations!

Saw your posting the other day. Still having some problems with my email which should be fixed later this week. May have to go to NYC area for business in August and, if so, will try to make it around that time. I do have your telephone number from an old posting you made some time ago and if you don't mind, will call you about this matter. Namaste.

No, this is going to be a very smooth takeoff. Don't want to waste a lot of fuel. We're going for altitude this time.

Well, on second thought, being safe is good too.

Now, just a touch of stick.

All: Apparently WJC will lose Democratic support if he fails to comply with K Starr's subpeona. Starr refuses to let laywer David Kendall to be present during testimony. Heating up -- could the markets be picking this up? Could be.
http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

Ref: "Myths, money & the Y2K bug" article at AFR Net Services By journalist David Crowe

The gist of Journalist Crowe's article may summed up in one of his quotes:

'My hunch would be that the effect is not going to be that great, because it's foreseeable and people will be prepared for it,"

I DON'T THINK SO!

Many months ago one of the world's largest and most sophisticated banks,
CITIBANK, flatly confessed it has already set aside $600 Million to resolve the Y2K problem before New Year's Eve next year!!!! That's $600,000,000! This "AIN'T NO SIMPLE COMPUTER GLITCH"

Does this sound like the business world can afford to be complacent about
the looming problem?!

I DON'T THINK SO!

Journalist Crowe and his numerous cites of Ostriches assuming the
tradition position make me think of that old saying:

"if you are calm and collective while all others are running amok
and shouting of pending danger, MAYBE YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND
THE TRUE SITUATION.

To play down the potential of severe damage is tantamount to ignoring
Tornedo warning in your home town - citing unsubstantiated probabilities that the twister will most likely miss your house.

I DON'T THINK SO!

IMHO it is monumentally stupid not to consider the potential for great
Loss and subsequently prepare for it. Is this not the common-sense
Logic of why we buy insurance on our lives, cars and other property?!
Do you NOT want to protect your family from possible danger?!

Over-kill in preparedness before a potential threat is a prudent strategy. Consider the dire potential ramifications,,, albeit not certainties. The following URLs provide ample descriptions in a nut-shell of the what HAVOC might be wrought by the Y2K:

It's necessary to delete the extra "en" in the word "golden" for each URL:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin032198.html
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne041498.html
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne070698.html
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/mcintosh072098.html

Weights starting to come off the wheels. Gotta be careful, not too much.

The pull-togertherness of a previous generation in a former time of crisis is LONG GONE TODAY! TODAY--it's an every man for himself mentality! Y2K will test the viability of our social, political and economic institutions! GREAT SHOW LAST SATURDAY MORNING!

Gollum: Lets say WJC's fortunes start to fade. You might find the controls stiffen up a bit -- the PPT might not work as effectively.I think the next few weeks are critical -- can WJC pull it off, or can't he? And, just when this investigation winds down, Janet Reno will be forced to appoint another independent counsel, or give the campaign finance stuff to Kennethh Starr. I'll bet she is holding her breath!

MSPR DOWN 102!!! Oh my!!

We'll let a little more speed build up. Then nice and easy we'll take all the weight off, build a little altitude and raise the gear...

Seeing no golblin on the tarmac this a.m.

3% of them MUST BE REPLACED BY THE END OF 1999! Physically impossible to replace 1.5 billion chips by the end of '99! Many of them are thousands of feet below sea level and in satellites hundreds of miles out in space!
GPS Satellites WILL BE HIT!! WILL AFFECT BANKS!! SIGNAL DETERIORATION WILL AFFECT SATELLITE TRANSMISSIONS! Any volunteers to replace those babies?

The generals are in FULL RETREAT! Nasdaq DOW ( N ) 43! DOW DOW ( N ) 73!

NASDAQ 100 DOW ( N ) 37.33!!

New software announcement!!! This memo is to announce the
development of a new software system. We are currently building a
data center that will contain all firm data that is Year 2000 compliant.
The program is referred to as the "Millennia Year Application Software
System" ( MYASS ) . Next Monday at 9:00 there will be a meeting in which
I will show MYASS to everyone. We will continue to hold demonstrations
throughout the month so that all employees will have an opportunity to get
a good look at MYASS.

 As for the status of the implementation of the program, I have not
addressed the networking aspects so currently only one person at a time can
use MYASS. This restriction will be removed after MYASS expands. Several
people are using the program already and have come to depend on it.

 Just this morning I walked into a subordinate's office and was not
surprised to find that he had his nose buried in MYASS. I've noticed that some
of the less technical personnel are somewhat afraid of MYASS. Just last
week, when asked to enter some information into the program, I had a
secretary say to me "I'm a little nervous, I've never put anything in
MYASS before." I volunteered to help her through her first time and when we
were through she admitted that it was relatively painless and she was
actually looking forward to doing it again. She went so far as to say that
after using SAP and Oracle, she was ready to kiss MYASS.

I know there are concerns over the virus that was found in MYASS upon
initial installation, but I am pleased to say the virus has been eliminated
and we were able to save MYASS. In the future, however, protection
will be required prior to entering MYASS. We planned this database to
encompass all information associated with the business. So as you begin
using the program, feel free to put anything you want into MYASS. As MYASS
grows larger, we envision a time when it will be commonplace to walk by an
office and see a manager hand a paper to an employee and say "Here,
stick this in MYASS."

 This program has already demonstrated great benefit to the company
during recent OSHA and EPA audits. After requesting certain historical data
the agency representatives were amazed at how quickly we provided the
information. When asked how the numbers could be retrieved so rapidly
our Environmental Manager proudly stated "Simple, I just pulled them out
of MYASS."

DAX DOW ( N ) 150+!! XETRA DOW ( N ) 186+!! FTSE-100 DOW ( N ) 56+!! Russia DOW ( N ) 9%!! THE DOW DEBACLE CONTINUES TO BROADEN OUT!!!!

How come we know so much about the potential problems and hear so little about the fixes?

"LS/2000 services are presently used by the Bank of Nova Scotia, the Royal Bank of Canada,the Toronto Dominion Bank, Inverlat Banco ( Mexico ) , Maduro & Curiel's Bank ( Curacao ) , and many others through IBM Canada Ltd. and PRT International Inc. Over 70 million lines of source code analyzed and converted by LS/2000 have already been Year 2000 tested and
returned to production use."

ref: gunrunner ( New Y 2 K software fixes ALL Bugs! )

CONGRATULATIONS on a brilliantly funny piece. It's a keeper!
Many thx.

MYASS SOUNDS LIKE A WINNER! What's the DOWNside to this marvel of software engisneering? Should I be afraid to look into it? : ) LOFLOL!!

Well, here comes the end of the runway. Time to get this baby off the ground.

Or maybe go for a swim.

Better places to invest at this time--like gold and silver, perhaps?

Great piece.

Ready to do it now, or you want to wait 'til Mr. York gets back from lunch?

ALREADY IN JULY BEFORE STOCK BUILD-UPS! Prices will head LOWER!

equity prices in the DOW index, but it might also operate to place
selling pressure on alternate investments, like PMs. They all
show red except platinum this morning, or am I seeing conspiracy
under every toadstool?

Things are getting fixed. Just not enough of them fast enough. There are quite a number of 'solutions' out there. One CIO reported that they work .. sort of. You still need to do a by hand inspection and correction. 80/20. The first 80 or 90% is the easy stuff. After that its up hill.

Its a suckers bet. You give me all your worth and if I ( all the folks we depend upon ) am right, you get it back. If I am wrong, then you lose. Do you see the problem with this? Typically a bet works both ways. If I bet you 100 then we both put up 100 in the hand of a neutral party. We both risk losing. As it stands we must ask what we 'win' if they don't get it right.

Personally, I'd get out as much as can be gotten out of 'system' completely. If they do a good job then there will still be fire sale prices and a good return on investment as things get back to normal. If they blow it, then at least you are the richest man on the block since most everyone else will be destituted.

The biggest problem is the emotional resistance to the idea that the world as we know it COULD POSSIBLY be toast in 17 months. This will stop many, many people from really thinking this thing through and taking some kind of action to protect themselves. We need to plan for the entire range of possibilities and find a course of action which will ensure a good starting position from whatever point on that range we finally land at.

IMHO
A---wa----y

Platinum's down too ( $2 ) . Bart's plat chart is off this morning.

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Allen ( USA )
Great. What I want to know is much more detail about the end of century crisis. There was a of similar talk at the end of the 1800's as well. I understand the elevator crashing scare is largely BS. Individual elevators are well documented devices as I understand the situation--they have been around for more than a hundred years and the manufacturers know the chips. I understand that the calendar chips are used to keep track of servicing--if they suddenly think its 1900 AD the elevators will carry on anyway.

What I want is a lot more info and whole lot less generalised gloom and doom before I buy into this saviour for gold.

We haven't crashed yet and this babe's in the air. I think it's gonna fly. Ponderous and heavy though with the tanks full.

Now that the hard part's over, I think I'll go down and check on the DOW.

ON WALL STREET'S Y2K TESTS HELD earlier this month at least until August 2! Won't really know if tests are successful till March, 1999!

No no no. I don't want to wait for Mr. York. I want to get up out of his clawing reach before then.

the litigation will tie up America's courts for decades!

Ah ... most telling that SIA is unwilling to let us know the details ... and I thought it went just peachy.

Hit the ejection button now! Eject eject eject!

Spud

will return in time for the close which I expect to be MUCH LOWER! Wiedersehen!

Do yourself a favor. Buy, borrow, or steal *Time Bomb 2000,* by Edward Yourdon & Jennifer Yourdon. Chapters include Impact on: Jobs; Utilities; Transportation; Banking/Finance; Food; Your Home PC; News & Information; Health/Medicine; Government; Embedded Systems; Education; Telephone & Mail Services; et al. Each chapter looks at specific issues and appraises the management of risk for: two days; one month; one year; and ten years. This book is arguably the most comprehensive general overview out there of Y2K. The Yourdons' views and arguments are reasonable. $20. Probably less at Amazon.com. Cheap orientation.

Check-six quick...

I know all I need to know about the man and his views. Obviously I am not convinced. I have no doubt that there are going to be problems on Jan 1 2000. I have no belief that the crisis predicted by various posters here or the notion that gold will finally go up is supported by his views.

I don't think we're really that far apart on this. Regardless of the direct impact of Y2K, my concern is that -- 1 ) the resources corporations spend to address it drain already-declining earnings; and 2 ) the uncertainty of it may instill panic among the people.

Could be we are in complete agreement.

Great! Therefore enact the premise: If panic, go gold. Then again, this is the '90s. May be a faulty premise ( new paradigm, ya know? ) . Don't think so myself.

Frown. What's this? We're supposed to be going up by now, not hanging level.

A friend of mine sent me the MYASS piece. Thought with all the Y2K discussions here, some of you folks might like it.

Worked a local gun show this weekend. I was rather surprised by a few things: I moved a LOT of merchandise ( in contrast to the last show where I was lucky to move about 4 or 5 items ) ; Most of the sales were to those possessing concealed carry permits ( crooks beware in this part of the country! ) ; Quizzed all the customers as to why they were buying - "home and personal protection" and "gettin' them before they ban ALL the guns" were the most popular answers; and finally, there were far fewer dealers here than in past shows ( Hmmmmmm...I've got some theories on that... )

I kept hoping someone would offer to pay in gold or silver.

I am surprised that gold, silver, and plat haven't tanked, what with to stocks heading south. Is this a good sign or a false signal?

I don't think panic is doing it anymore. Lots of stuff to panic about and gold ignores it. Off to the TD Bank to do some business---they are YK2 Ok apparently

I don't think this generation knows anything about financial panic . . . yet.

to expect the unexpected. Perhaps with the general dismal picture
painted by equities today, silver staying flat in the face of
adversity is all we can expect. More and more, the deflationary
school seems to be winning. Greemspan still thinks the main
problem is INflation. If this is true, he is going to wrestle the
inflationary monster down into a another beast called DEflation
which once born will consume us all.

My projected low for NEM that I mentioned last week is just
about a reality as last report it is 20 1/4. DROOY is holding 2.

Is this the end or close to it? I don't, like you, know. But
by the end of the week ( month ) gold stocks had better be off their lows
or it won't bode well for the rest of the year. Certainly August has
to begin an uptrend with good volume.

Let us all hope for the best as it is getting important for things
to happen at certain times. In my opinion.

Thanks, GD

Oil drillers are trying to rally from oversold. Airlines rallying.Oil stocks going down, extenguishing selling for an oversold rally Tues., or Wed.

That's more like it.

Energy is the best speculative play in the market. It is the most oversold group. Europe is much safer than US. I heard the same guy on CNBC. The next guy was positive longer term. He liked banks, ins. cos. now. I think financials have a lot more to go to downside. Energy is almost sold out. Laggards will perform well this fall. Packer Backer.

was 20. DROOY is making a double bottom at 2. Will it hold?
It was a month ago that DROOY hit 2 although some charts don't show
that. There was an abc up and an abc dowm. This IS important!!

Time will tell or make us even more foolish looking than ever!!

Thanks, GD

Fly, baby, fly!

from that old John Wayne movie "The High and the Mighty"?

Whoops, I better quit rummaging around for that music and keep my hands on the stick.

How far did the Spruce Goose fly?

Whew! Grabbed it just in time.

The 5 hour rsi was under 20 the first hour this morning a short term over sold condition. If it stays level until 12:30 cst it will go to neutral allowing for a drop. Air pocket ahead.

What does that mean -- 5 hour rsi under 20?

All three are at support. Gold at long term support. Oil touching long term support, and Oil Servics doing the same. Employment cost index due out Thurs. Somebody look at these charts, and tell me i'm dreaming. Not saying they won"t break long term support, BUT WOW. It hit me like a ton of bricks.

I had the weirdest dream last night. Al Gore was president. I couldn't go back to sleep. I'm gonna have to start drinkin' again. Where's Dan Quayle when you need him...

Not far enough! Check out XAU long term. Then XOI oil, long term, Then OSX oil service index long term and tell me what you see. All that while keeping hand on stick and eye on silver. ECI due out Thursday.

They all have converged at long term support together.

Relative Strength Index - A market is generally thought to be over bought with readings above 75% and over sold under 25%. When the market reaches these extremes a bounce or reaction may occur.

Thanks for the warning. I'll turn up the boost a bit. Enough power and we'll coast right on through that air pocket.

Cool stat. Where do I find such an index?

That should be enough.

570 @ 13:39.

"Sir, we are now headed into the Voodooda Triangle" "down and out." "over"

.....love the way you handle the stick, ...now just a bit more pressure on the throttle, pleeeeease
l_b

August contract up Friday...beware of gold til then. $320 or $285 ( or lower ) are the targets I see. Protect yourselves. $320 does not look to be in the cards.

Tom

to start of the day levels - what could it mean!!. Also is interesting is the similarity between this guy and f* the unfathomable. Hmmm - I knew he couldn't stay away long. -c

Q: "Where's Quayle when you need him?"

A: Idahoe

My question is: Where is Lee Harvey when we REALLY need him??...

CheeeezeO is kinda' like a goldbug version of Don King. way cool. 'sallright with me. fer sure. call 'em like you feel 'em, cheeezeO.

I left it on auto while I went to eat lunch. It looks like it sank a bit. Now I don't know quite what to do. I'd like to boost it going into close to encourage the overnight guys, but if I hit too hard it might stall. So, should I take a chance, or just go out nice and level?

A lot of time has elapsed as await and anticipate a move up
When will it come to pass ?

Look at a long term chart of XAU. It is at long term support. So is XOI, oil and OSX oil drillers. I'm not saying they won't break, but mabe the won't.
Also ECI out Thurs. employment cost index.

FWIW Buy signal 36 1/2 stop 36

Nasdac down 18.

http://www.kitco.ca/silver.graph.html

Weak, but very slight uptrend all day.

It's back at the old 142 level. Robby Rubin territory.

G -- *Consolidation* I think is the word we're looking for today.

M -- October, 1998.

Think HAL is a buy. I do short term. They're about to rally ( over sold ) .
Whadda ya think?

Market certainly due for a bit of a bounce, but the main trend is DOWN.

Gold acting miserably as ususal. Still waiting for a selling climax

James Cramer says way to early to INVEST n energy service stocks. Trend will be down for some time unless POO rallies dramatically. Only quick in and out traders should be playing these stocks at this time.


Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations: Why Oil's Still
Looking Ugly

By James J. Cramer
7/27/98 1:26 PM ET

Looking over the tables this weekend, I was struck by the incredible declines in the oil
service stocks in a week when the commodity did not decline. Some of these stocks
were just trashed, obviously sold by people who "have to" not can, which is the sorry
side of that old trader's saw "sell them when you can, not when you have to."

What's behind this monster move? My bet is that some firms that had made a huge
sector bet on this group are finally being liquidated.

Mind you, that is not the same as selling. When you sell something, you tend to try to
get the best price. But when you run money in this country, and you underperform,
eventually your investors get fed up and they take the money away. This kind of
selling is what I am seeing now.

How long will it last? As we are JUST NOW beginning to get managements and
analysts turning negative on the group, I think it can last until the end of the year. Up
until this quarter's reports every management in this industry was trying to tell us why
this time, even if oil stayed low, there would be a ton of drilling and the prospects were
great. It turns out they were wrong. They are now coming back to reality that they
service a commodity business and the commodity is too low to explore aggressively.

What gets the group going again? Higher oil prices? Nah, not at this point, that won't
save the next quarter. A return to prosperity in East Asia? That would help, but I
wouldn't bank on it.

No, what this group has to do is play out like all bad groups. It has to go through a
miserable period as earnings estimates are still way too high, then it has to run the
gauntlet of some incredibly nasty tax-loss selling, and then it must begin to
anniversary easy comparisons, which probably won't begin until the summer of next
year.

Sure, you might want to bottom-fish now. But when you hit a couple-year chart of
most of the stocks in this group, you see that these stocks were bid up grotesquely for
the better part of two years and still have a ways to go. That's too long a plunge for
me.

I am staying away.

silver is in a 'consolidation' phase. Let us also hope that commercials
take this last oportunity to pick up the last of the cheap silver from
COMEX. We shall wait with baited breath until COMEX stocks are
posted later this day.

until the Twelfth of Never...and that's a long, long time.........greetings! and a G&P to YA!!!! studio.

all those magic make-believe numbers, anything to inject CONfidence into the sweating baby-boomers, anything to keep the CON going just a little longer.

The more "money" the PPT pours into the DOW to keep it up up, the more money is being taken out to be realized as ... inflation in tangible things.

Of course, the FedGov and Press keep chanting their mantra "there is no inflation" ( just like our Bill, "there *is* no sexual relationship" ) .

Uncle Sam to John Q. Public: "How does you like yer numbers cooked, ye rube?"

Spud

James Creamer has a to in Cendant. Rallys are all anyone better play. No one in their right mind should invest now.

James Creamer Loved Cendant.

According to "my guys".........rigs being laid down and stacked everywhere. FWIW. Yes, Hello again, Mr. Rust Worm!

James Cramer has made mistakes, but his overall record as a money manager is excellent. Certainly much better than most or perhaps all posters here.

Old_Gold, RG, and LGB ( and probably a few others ) have the most accurate predictions from what I have seen in the past year. From what I can gather the current Gold price is mostly stable with people waiting to see what the new Central Bank of Europe does. Will they back thier new currency with gold to give it more credibility and value, causing gold to go up? Or will the new merged bank want to hold less gold than the old banks held collectivly, causing gold to go down?

I think most people expect gold to go further down before going up again.
My opinion is that most of the fun will be in Silver and Platinum for the next couple of years.

Many Kitcoites are silent as gold prices drop and then scream "This is the start of the long awaited Gold Bull!" whenever gold starts the day up more than $1.

Rallys. Anybody dumb enough to get in the market and get comfortable with it deserves his fate. It may be futile to dash in and out. I do think oil will rally 4th quarter.If we have a cold winter.. James has never had a kind word for Oil, even last year when the drillers were leading the market.

either. They kinda sorta are joined at the hip, tho gold may be early.
No OIL no GOLD. Shall we discuss Airline stocks?

Well we weren't doin too bad right up until just before closing. Still didn't do too bad.

Guess now I'll wheel it back to the hanger and try again tomorrow.

When do we find out what the COMEX stocks did today?

You got that right! It also lets the big boys get theirs out first.

Football starts soon.

You won't hear Wall Street types hyping gold or oil. They hate them both.
So do we, right now anyway.

Didn't Rubin hit it at about 146 last time?

No.

That's what I remember. My memory is not what it used to be, so I can't afford to get to cocky.

Rubin intervened @ 146 JY. I don't think that's quite as critical a number as Nikkei @ 15,000, due to Japanese banks counting stock assets as part of their reserves. Nikkei @ 15K puts them at about the minimum margin for international trade, per BIS standards. That figure was breeched to about 14,700. This I think was why Rubin went in.

Bloober: In past cycles, gold has indeed generally bottomed before oil. Consequently if one is bearish on gold, hard to be bullish on oil except from a very short-term trading perspective.

When one examines the numbers, we can see that gold no longer is the only group experiencing a bear market. In addition to energy, many cyclical sectors have dropped sharply these past few months. The Fidelity Paper Fund, for example, has fallen about 20% since May. The recent boom in the NASDAQ 100 and the internet stocks has masked nascent bear markets in many cyclical groups.

Interesting that bonds no longer rally much when stocks, commodities, and the yen tank. No longer reacting well to news. A bad omen methinks. For those expecting just a modest stock market correction have based their argument on expectations that bond yields would drop sharply once stocks hit the skids. Looks like a forlorn hope.

FWIW Sharp bearmarket rallies are nice to trade with highly
liquid stocks,after a 8 dollar decline 2 dollar rise
is good enough,even when the rigs are rusting.

I can't give it up. I will not invest tho. I like cheap stuff. Gold, Oil, Korea. But I will be a little late to all three parties. I got too many scars to be an early bird. I know you need a stiff drink long about now.And some music, not Muzak. Otis, try a little tenderness. yeah.....

Next year you can invest. Comparisons will be good, oil prices better. As for now, 2 day rally starting tomarrow. Studio owns some wells and doesn't even want to discuss the subject of slick stuff.

Oil revenues@my.company Down 65% in 12 mos. I tossed Mr. Hal's calling card. IMHO, she's headed souther for sure.

I concurr completely. I should think before I type. 146 it is Gollum. You were right on it. memory malfunftion.

You and Gollum keep me straight. It's a tough job.

Tighten up the stop to 563,for HAL 36 1/8 at the close if not stopped out

Momentum players. But tis too late Baby. We really did try to make it.
Carol King. I have a dream. Martin Luther King. He should just come out and tell us. Larry King.

But Bart will try and protect this site at all costs, yes?
Even if it means granting access to certain, shall we say,
unmentionables?

say what?

CYCLIST: ...where are we at ( currently ) in wheat cycle??? what does your work indicate afa support/timing/cycle. ( does this include technical/seasonal data? ) Thank you in advance. We appreciate your specialization in this area.

Fourth largest crop ever......storing on ground.

Set stop at 36 5/8 and let her ride

FWIW: A while ago, someone posted the Crash Index developed by Mr. Ford of the PitBull Investor. For the last few weeks it's been at -4. It is now at -10. According to the info, prepare for a decent drop ( 20-30% ) soon. Not sure if anyone has followed this before regarding actual accuracy, but according to the author, it hasn't failed yet. Anyone ever follow this before and have any comments on the accuracy? Thanks in advance!

http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

Hello, Mr. Mealy Bug!

Right now trades in wheat/corn spread is going to be a winner
with the coming crop.Wheat I wouldn't touch for now until end of
next week.I expect a retest of the beans as well in the same time
frame.

Two more good rains in the belt, and Kellogg's will be buried in corn flakes.

to all
Driefontein results in Business Day. June quarter
profits at 53.6 mill rand vs 4.4 mill in March
quarter.
Cost figures are 236 $/oz east dries vs 239 march quarter
and 242 $/oz west dries vs 314 march quarter

The results of the rand slide will bring the cost to
around 200 $/oz in the September quarter.
They produced about 320,000 oz for the quarter

require favorable weather for another thirty days.

I don't know much about the history of that crash index either but it is interesting that it is a -10 for the first time that I've been following it. To Put, or not to Put. That is the question. I swore off S&P Puts some time ago but I'm feeling the urge again. To clone, Cheesehead is definately not F*. He's quite the character. Although F* could probably have made some kind of chart relating the number of Cheesehead posts in a day and a downturn in the markets. I don't mind his caplock. It's what makes him the one and only GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD.

TYoung: Glad you're back. We need your expertise. A GULP back at 'ya.

Stand aside. Do not invest. Disgression I say, is the better part of valor.
Keep what you have, and live to fight.....I cuddo been a continda.

DOW up 63, most stocks gettin killed.

All markets ( World ) going down 30%. Says bonds will bring 10%. Not bad.

Yeah, I saw that yesterday, effective last Friday. The fine print explanation was interesting. If I remember correctly, a -10 follows five consecutive down Dow days. ( He explains the fifth down day as a fluke, dropping just after the news broke that someone fired on the White House. Although fears were quickly allayed, the Dow was left with little time to close in the black. Supposedly. The guy's a bull. ) Apparently the index serves merely as a warning. The guy qualifies himself by citing that the index has been wrong six out of ten times. We're told not to panic, that we still have a few weeks to decide if this is just a correction. The -10 stands as an alert.

( click ) .......BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!. ( plop )

Seems that at these low gold prices some of the mid range to junior producers are hardly trading.

McWatters Mining Quebec's #2 producer and one of Canada's top ten has announced improved 2nd quarter operating results.

At the Kiena Mine they produced 22,172 oz. at US$186/oz. versus ( $219/oz.-Q1 )
At the Sigma Mine they produced 25,302 oz. at $270/oz versus ( $308/oz.-Q1 ) .

Company has an extensive group of properties in the Abitibi Camp and a possible low cost prospect in Newfounfland in a JV with Major General Resources at its Hammerdown property.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980727/mcwatters__1.html

It'll be the new Nieman Marcus of the SouthWest.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for July 27

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,071,936 - 10,352 troy ounces
Silver 79,662,377 - 610,579 troy ounces
Copper 55,719 + 601 short tons

N/A= Not available.


( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

How bout 50% utilities, 50% bonds. ( no commod odities ) .

If the C$ continues to fall or stays where it is for a year of so this is going to hurt. At the moment it is giving Canadian exporters a real boost but citrus will be going up in the winter.

25% Bonds
25% Utilities
35% Cash/Near Cash interest bearing
15% Gold and Silver ( just in case she blows, sir )

Looks like a systematic withdrawal of silver stocks @ 600,000/day, eh?

A maximum of 3 months or so before elligible stocks are zeroed?

heh, heh, heh..........kaboom!

This is the start of the long awaited gold bull! Oh, gold is down a dollar, not up? Oh well. --AG

Just a quick observation. Both the DOW-to-Gold and S&P500-to-Gold ratios are 30:1. A market bottom in the case of the former and a market top in the case of the latter. Perhaps this is the correlation we have all been looking and waiting for.

Thanks Bart!!

Thank You. I live here in the corn belt; crops look fantastic BUT local prices high ( relative ) ; wonder why the divergence...I'm just a'wonderin 'bout dat wheat...hmmm

Sold at 37 ,the price starting to get rusty

wonder about cotton.....crop destroyed.

as only about half of the COMEX Silver is eligible for delivery7...somebody has the numbers...'bout half eligible and half registered ( stored ) ...It's time for silver to reflect this shortage...

Yeah, a systematic withdrawal. As D.A. opined Th. 7/23 @ 19:04, re. possible removal by J. Aron: "If someone were foolish enough to allow me to orchestrate the play, I might remove a million ounces a day for a week, then two million a day the following week and then finally three million a day for the last week, right up until options expirey. This would add up to their 30 million ounces and perhaps could spark a frenzy...."

Options expirey ( Sept. base ) , is, I believe, Friday, August 14.

Now, at approx. 600,000 oz. removed per day -- that is, two percent of 30 million -- and per all these assumptions -- could we perhaps be looking at the first foothills of an incline toward a frenzy even steeper than D.A. postulated?

you're good, shootist,.....er cyclist! nice shot.

How many cattle are you grazing, and where you gonna get hay? Ranchers selling like crazy here, no grass to feed um.

At my last look the elligible stocks were around 41-42 MM ounces. When they drop below 20 MM or so, watch for the scrambling to start.

We are getting close to the point where one trade can take it all - the lower it goes, the higher the probability that a distant relative of Bunker Hunt will emerge......but nobody wants to spook the market just yet by accumulating on days when the price rises in a big way.

They still have some buying to do - the cheaper the better, IMHO, until the end-game is visible to all.

Rally tomorrow in HAL, then thats it. Or Wed. too?

More decline. There will undoubtedly be a move in silver as this decline continues.

The next question is, why? Is it an honest decline or are we being set up. The answer to this question will determine how high a move and how sharp the decline.

Got plenty alfalfa left over from last year.......no problemo...down to sixty mother cows and their calves. That's it for me. Hangin' up my prod. bbbbbuuuzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

( COMTEX ) B: COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE STOCKS
B: COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE STOCKS

New York-July 27-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX
silver warehouse stocks ( Note abbreviations--
R = Registered; E = Eligible; T = Total ) :

SILVER
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
DEPOSITORY
SCOTIA MOCATTA
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
R 2,380,444 0 0 0 0 2,380,444
E 384,876 0 0 0 0 384,876
T 2,765,320 0 0 0 0 2,765,320

MORGAN GUARANTY
R 15,238,545 0 610,579 -610,579 0 14,627,966
E 6,142,342 0 0 0 0 6,142,342
T 21,380,887 0 610,579 -610,579 0 20,770,308

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( New York )
R 22,034,442 0 0 0 0 22,034,442
E 22,895,871 0 0 0 0 22,895,871
T 44,930,313 0 0 0 0 44,930,313

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( Delaware )
R 152,315 0 0 0 0 152,315
E 7,983,635 0 0 0 0 7,983,635
T 8,135,950 0 0 0 0 8,135,950

WILMINGTON TRUST
R 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 3,060,486 0 0 0 0 3,060,486
T 3,060,486 0 0 0 0 3,060,486
--------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL REGISTERED
39,805,746 0 610,579 -610,579 0 39,195,167
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
40,467,210 0 0 0 0 40,467,210
COMBINED TOTAL
80,272,956 0 610,579 -610,579 0 79,662,337
--------------------------------------------------------------

*** end of story ***

STUDIO R: ...dunno..."what's the R for?".....BBL

www.drudgereport.com Full details are not yet out. Slick Willy loses in court every day.

Promptly rally 90 points of course.

The Yen has fared poorly today, as has the XAU. And commercials are so short silver as to render silverbugs apparent and absolute fools. So why didn't silver tank? Why isn't silver still $4.80? Ultimately, the stack of charts tracking the POS under the influence of lease rates is one by one blowing off the piano out across the plains. We're moving back to supply and demand now. W.B. saw that -- and a whole lot more, I"m sure. And if all we can see is the position taken by W.B., we're seeing a lot -- maybe all we need to see.

http://allpolitics.com/1998/07/27/lindsey.privilege/

I planted about 200 acres of pine seedlings this year, end result, 200 acres of toasty brown seedlings. Ain't a purty sight--Ugh!

Hang in there man.

Watch the after-hours trading as the Comex news begins to filter out. Remember last week, Monday through Thursday? No, even Friday too. Comex trading closed, but silver just kept on going, and going, and . . .

I did even better than I thought. NY opened at about 5.62 and closed at about 5.64 so there was actually a 2 gain. Gold stayed about the same so there was a net gain over gold open to close.

Put this together with the decline in COMEX stocks and it seems the embers are still smoldering.....

today. They really make an impression.

It is about time that are markets are not tied together at the hip for a change!!!!!

Risk reward ratio not so great ,gold cycles coming into line .
Better grounds

Look at the OSX chart, as well as XOI and XAU. They are all at long term support. OSX helh. up 2%.

OSX held, up 2%.

We should've planted dope like all our rich neighbors! G&P to YA!!!! Sorry 'bout the loss, pal.

Laura needs a roomie@LSU ( female! ) perchance any No. La. gals in the same jam? apartment sharing......hate to send her down there alone. can't affiliate pi phi until next year. muchas garcias.

Thanks Blooper, I'm hangin, call me crazy but I feel like something good is gonna happen soon.

Both you guys have caught hell lately. Payback is swell.

At least we didn't crash the metals today though metalminng stocks continued to decline ending pretty close or in the case of ssc -at their lows - maybe tomorrow.

My northern neighbor. Howdy, Pardnah !

It looks like the 600,000+ drawdown was strictly from Registered Stock .. and tht the Eligible remained the same...Significant??

Up and Runnnin' I presume!!!! Computers are a deadly menace....I would be rich if I would've never found the internet!

Gosh, I know you're burnin' up down there...whew!!!...I guess all a good man can do is drink mo' cuba libres!!! 107 here yesterday. virtual popcorn phart conditions.

R=ronnie.

Studio.R, my computer is so dry, it could soak up Lake Texoma and still be thirsty. It's living proof that we don't have to wait for Y2K for a disaster. E-mail is still not working but the computer guy says he'll be back later this week to fix that. ( Yeah,I've heard that before too ! ) ( What I don't understand is how I can post to Kitco when email is not working. Think it has to do with incoming email ) . Maybe my computer just doesn't like temperatures above 150 degrees !

Stictly for laughs:


Monday July 27, 4:01 pm Eastern Time

Golden Bear to restate 97 shr loss of $4.49

NORTH PALM BEACH, Fla., July 27 ( Reuters ) - Golden Bear Golf Inc. said Monday it will report a restated loss of $24.7
million, or $4.49 per share, for the year ended December 31, 1997, compared to a loss of $2.9 million or a loss of $.53 per share
as originally reported.

& lost big on them. That's why he's so bearish now. I own some mainly ng E/Ps ( 90% ) . I would'nt own oil stocks because Saudi Arabia is going to get pi*sed off @ Venezuela for cheating & one of these mornings we will wake up to sub $10 crude.

Un-Lake Texhoma should make some pretty good bottom land. eh?? keep koooool, kat!

Hmmmmm - this is a mystery. This also happened one day last week, as I recall.

Some guesses:

( 1 ) Transferring registered silver to London
or parts unknown to get it out of view of
COMEX.

( 2 ) Selling registered silver ( which is, BTW, at 92% off its all-time high ) to make a profit of 5% or 10%, when you could continue to hold it with possibility of making several times that amount of profit.

Any more possibilites? Which seems more
likely?

Questions ( to anyone who knows the ins and
outs of COMEX ) :

If silver is sold directly out of registered
stocks, is COMEX giving its owner preferental treatment to those who hold the 'for sale'
elligible stocks? If so, why would they do
this? I would imagine that silver for sale
from producers would be placed in the
elligible category, yes?

Tick...tick...tick

WJC breaks support. Monica to testify AFTER the Pres. Decomposing teflon stinks really bad. Jees, git him outta here. Whew!!

If you don't like oil, better sell your gold too. Creamer still loves Cendant I guess, he hasn't sldt it.You could make a like case to sell all comodities.

.

Thanks for the info. Oil and Gold are alike. Everybody hates them. They are dirt cheap. Dirt cheap stocks either stay down , or move up. OPEC won't influence things either way. A cold winter would matter greatly. A bitterly cold winter, and you know......

Can anybody explain the meaning of
-Registered stocks
-eligible stocks
-Scheduled for delivery
and then the consequence on the gold price trend.

you said...
"Dirt cheap stocks either stay down , or move up. " ... I have to disagree....I have some that MOVED EVEN LOWER...grinie thingie...

Didn't get your email; try this address:

Silverdolr@webtv.net

Risk in the oil service probably is not too great at these levels. But a sustained upmove not likely for some considerable time. But come to think of it the XAU looked like a low risk bet at 80. And look at it today.

If the go much lower, when they do start up. I'll finally be a buyer. Big Time, wont you?

Everythings going lower. Don't pick on oil. Look at your pet, it's going lower too. Unless you're holdind MM funds.

They get the piano player too.

My understand of registered vs elligible
stocks is:

Registered stocks - parked in the warehouse
for custodial purposes - owner registered &
not ( generally ) for sale

Elligible stocks - marked for sale against
COMEX delivery requirements

Scheduled for delivery stocks - stocks which
are sold now, to be delivered at a specified
future time

If supply and demand ( ECON 101 ) rules, when
the COMEX stocks go down, the price should go
up until a higher price brings forth more
supply, and equilibriium is reached. This
has not been the case for many years ( see Ted
Butler's articles on vronsky's site ) . When
COMEX stocks go to zero, and demand is
inelastic ( as it is with much of silver
demand ) the price should go up, a lot.

Blooper: Agreed. Actually I think oil service now has less risk than most other sectors because it has already been hit so hard. But that is not to say the stocks will not go lower still in time.

Thanks for the clarification. Why would someone pull their registered metal out of Comex other than to sell? And the holder of 600,000 oz. -- Why would they sell at these prices . . . unless they were getting some price other than what we're seeing? And why . . . And why . . . ?

They are going lower, after a brief rally. I watch and wait. But Old Gold , like you say , a little lower. Some things look to be a whole lot lower. I am watching value. Gold is due real soon. How about the ECI out Thurs.
That could be big. Lotta folks thinking inflation ( wage ) .

All: With WJC's lawyers being required to testify about possible criminal activity, and WJC being subpeona'd, the US markets may begin to head down without help from AG. My guess is that there will be a bit of a lag, however. If we have a market bear ( not correction ) , and a whiff of inflation, we will have a gold rally.
Anyone notice that CRY0 is still dropping? Heads up if it breaks the 10 or so year low at 200. I think we need to keep monitoring the JOC index for a bottom. Given the drought in Texas ( and elsewhere ) commodities may bottom soon, unless the Saudi Arabians are really angry, and try to wipe Venezuela off the map by dumping oil. Hard to say, but it is possible that oil could go down some more before it bottoms.
We are going to have some incredible buys when commodities and oil bottom. Gold will follow some months later, IMHO -- especially if we have a WJC-induced market bear. Just keep your powder dry.
All: I repeat my plea for assistance. Anyone know how to get current and historical JOC spot data?

15% to 20% lower.

Looning like a Grandpaw. Littlt later be loonin like a great grandpaw.
"The truth will set you free". Old bill had rather climb a tree and tell a lie, than stanhd on the ground and tell the truth.

Been a real busy period, hardly have a chance to lurk these days. Listened to CNBC this afternoon. Todays' new NYSE highs for the year 21, new lows 300+, really soundly into bear territory. Today's losing stocks over 2 to 1 over advancing 900-something over 2000+. Very very weak internals. Dow advance glossing over disaster. Talking head salesmen calling it a "positive" day. Cheerleader stock salesman calling Barton Biggs a fool for calling bear market. Business as usual not. Maybe the Clinton, Asian, and reduced earnings finally coming home to roost.

Shock in the US housing market, June home resales expected to go up .4%, actually down a little over 2%, in the face of terrific mortgage rates and a usually busy month. Bloomberg tried to put good face on the news, as did Alan Greenspan, cheerily calling for a nice soft landing ( that's my joke of the day ) .

Thanks for the great posts - wish I'd had time to respond to about a hundred these past few weeks. Will be tied up another month or so, it appears.

My pick for Father of the Year. When can we all hear ( buy copy ) of your new song based on Kevan's Khord. Don't make us wait too long, or we may riot.

Silver nanowires with gold electrodes

http://www.m-m.org/jz/brinkleyc.html

The Dow Jones has completed a 5 wave decline, with the 3rd wave extending into 5 waves.From an Elliot perspective this is what you would want to see if after the terrible non-confirmations with the rest of the market. Sentiment as well as valuations are at levels not seen this century! But of course "This time is different" Right.....Suurrrre. One of the things that I like to watch for when a decline like this begins is to see how the mainstream analysts respond to various questions. Usually, a few immediately jump on the bearish bandwagon or at least advocate a 7 to 10% correction. Now it is the Pause that refreshes or some BS like that. When the public jumped in last October and bought the heck out of that dip, I felt the market was on borrowed time. The One critical indicator of the markets health that still wasn't signaling the end was the AD line, which failed in 1987 and in 1929, as well as a few other tops of significance.
Getting back to Elliot, if you thought that the top was in you would look for the 1st 5 wave decline to unfold exactly like it did. If you were looking for it to be a long term top, then any counter trend rally would be extremly narrow. There is still no, and I REPEAT, No Fear out there about last weeks decline. Am I mistaken or wasn't that the largest 1 week point decline Ever. If the Top is in then Elliot can be your best friend. Look for an A-B-C correction to a .382 retracement of the decline followed by a .....Get ready now cause I'm gonna say it....3rd wave decline that looks, smells, feels,like a you know a CRASH. The reasonwill probably be some event, maybe Das Slickmister Going down or some other thing to blame it on. The real reason will be the market Collapsing under it's own weight. The XAU is setting us up. Even if it does make a new low it will be the opportunity of a lifetime not the alternative. http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=60m&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu

I dunno. I like tech, but I get spooked when I see DNA, silver, nano-something, and computer chips all in the same sentence. I get nightmares. I start picturing gangs of seven legged cats breaking into houses, licking the silver off the tableware, then going into a dark alley to crap out a cisco router and a pair of spark plugs.

Steven Jon Kaplan uses this a lot so go to this site at bottom and where he asks for comments send him a note and he may well help you out. Good luck. http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

We watch this old gold market together. Yes? LGB...ASB...our silver still has not broken out.

F*...a good cheerleader might be of some assistance at this point in time. Hope your off of whatever you were on. No predictions now...just cheerleading...could a short squeeze be in the works for Friday? Does not look promising.

PMSP...oris when the h*ll does the summer get over...not soon enough, eh.

Tom

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun, whose purpose it is to launch dead chickens.

It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshields of airline jets, military jets, and the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum travelling velocity. The idea being, that it will simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test the gun out on the windshield of their new high speed trains. However, upon the firing of the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two,and embedded itself in the back wall of the cabin.
Horrified, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment,
along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions. The NASA scientists sent back a one sentence response:

"THAW THE CHICKEN."

One person who used to work for British Aerospace tells a similar story ( which he swears is true ) that these machines are actually used to fire chickens into jet engines to simulate birdstrikes on the compressor blades.

To cut a long story short, to thaw the chicken someone left it in the gun overnight and performed the test in the morning.

The results were somewhat different to expected and close examination of the high speed video footage showed a very startled looking stray cat clinging to a half eaten chicken as it exited the gun at MACH 0.7.

me.

I didn't post it, but related to that piece I posted on the silver nanowires, was another article about how that particular discovery relates to in-body implants. You don't want to know what they had to say about that.

have webtv and are you happy with it ?

Reminds me of an article I saw posted on the net a few years ago ( likely an urban/net legend ) about a group of school aged kids into the whole jap anime cybertech scene who decided it would be prudent to drill a hole into one of the boy's skulls to do electronics experiments.

If any of you have a PBS channel that runs the Royal Canadian Air Farce
comedy show ( border states like Michigan seem to ) , you may have seen
the routine they do where they fire a chicken cannon at the political
target of the week. This is the device that was developed for windshield
testing in aircraft, and could fire a chicken at a windshield with a
substantial muzzle velocity ( 600MPH with a full air charge ) . They don't
wear visible hearing protection on the TV set, so hard to say how loud
this thing is. This is one of the few places Canadians combine guns and
politics.

I have an old engineer friend, a Georgia Tech
grad, whose first job out of college ( in the
1960's ) was working for a manufacturer of
aircraft engines in Connecticut.

One of the funniest stories I have ever heard
from him, was how he ( they ) tested aircraft
engines just in the same way your post
suggests- by firing them from a pneumatic
chicken cannon, directly into the intake of
the turbines.

Hot chicken soup was the product.

Hmmmm...Is it chicken dinar time again? ( ;^ ) )

Kapex: Your stock market and PM comments make a lot of sense to me.

Many of you may not know it, but in 1979 the XAU was around 979. Today the XAU closed at 95, a decline of almost 90 % from the former high's. It's a bargain today.

I am very pleased with WebTV, even though it
is now owned by Bill Gates ( 8^ ( ( .

Seriously - it is a great product for net
surfing, if you do not need to download or
store files. I think the current version
does picture-in-picture, so you can watch TV
and surf the net simultaneously.

I have the original ( classic ) version with
the infrared keyboard......a must-have
option, which allows you to sit across the
room from the TV when surfing. They have
just upgraded the resident software to allow
cutting and pasting, which was a major fault
in the original unit capability.

The cost is very moderate ( a couple hundred
bucks ) and you will never have to worry about
having to upgrade your operating system.

I have not noticed any terrible delays in
log-on time recently, but just after last
Christmas it was very slow. About the only
complaint I have with the system as it exists
is that they shutdown for routine maintenance
on Wednesday mornings ( very early a.m. ) and
are still down when I leave for work about 6
a.m.

Hope this info helps - on balance I like it
more than some computers I have used.

Tom

Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.13. The 50 day moving average is 30.64

XAU/Spot Ratio = .224. The 50 day moving average is .244. There have been only 13 occasions where the XAU closed in the 65.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #11. The #1 ranking was on August 1, 1986, with a gold price of $360.80, an XAU of 65.69, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .182

Swingchart updated
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swingdown4.jpg

Looks to bottom out soon.
I would have expected a washout on the Dow.
Todays action is almost the opposite.
Yet with attrocious internals.

What's going on here???
Seems the spin meisters just keep on getting better.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 51.33. The 50 day moving average is 55.15

http://www.wwfn.com/sectorfunds/PCIsignals.html
~~~~~~~~~
Back to the brush.
See you later.

Even though I expected the DOW to have a good day today this morning before the open because the S&P futures index was down about four points, and indeed the DOW finished up over ninety points, I should point out there was no life to it. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones two to one.

The favored few.

Spot gold $293.74; spot silver $5.33; XAU 71.90

best cash I spent,now I can cut and paste but more important I can get my EMail from my office Mac and according to this months newsletter Real Audio is coming soon...these things will blow a big hole in PC sales if folks only knew how easy and funthey are.....

Spot gold $303.34. spot silver $5.58, XAU 81.24, Dow/Gold ratio 27.66

precipice of serious trouble, we had yet another rally in the
companies with the worst fundamentals that will be the most
impacted by the continued slowdown in the world economy."

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap

What's happened to silver and gold in after-hours trading? They've done exactly nothing. Frozen like a dear in the headlights of an oncoming semi? Or inert, gnawing on a drumstick, prior to launch?

Could some one point me to an oil/gold chart going back to late 50's or so?

Thanks...

Steven

The guys in Sydney are a bunch of wimps and the Hong Kong market is not much better. The PM's didn't move much during the day so those guys don't know which way to go. They are all trend followers not trend setters. If there is going to be any REAL action it will begin after London opens.

I'm curious as to which DOW stock has the strongest correlation with the POG over the past 50 years. ( I know, there are DOW stocks today that haven't even been around for these 50 ) .

So anyone out there know where I can easily get historical stock price data for the dow stocks that adjusted for stock splits and dividends? I'll give you and all my results after I've run a statistical analysis.

Any guesses as which stock it might be andy why?
I'm guessing that it's AT&T only cause it's the most widely held stock.

JP has inadvertantly asked the key question. Us goldbugs like to sit around and fantasize about how far gold could go and when it will start making it's move and so on. However it might be worthwhile to take a look at how we got where we are today. Back in 1979 we had raging inflation. According to JP we had an XAU of 979. In 1980 gold peaked out. Since then we have had 18 years of ever lower inflation figures. This has led to ever lower prices for gold and the XAU. We are currently at or near zero inflation. What happens to the price of gold if we go into deflation? Everywhere I look in americas I see excess capacity. We have too many shopping centers, too many malls, too many car dealers, too many pizza shops, too many fast food places and every one of them is slashing prices to keep market share. Companies slash prices to the bone and then move factories out of the country to get cheaper labor so they can slash prices some more. With all of asia in recession, all of the excess capacity that exists at home and abroad and no room for price increases it is hard to see anything but deflation. If that is the case what is to prevent the XAU from dropping in half or maybe even more? What is to prevent the price of gold from dropping in half. After all gold is not exactly in short supply. Just a thought.

..it's ole Bob Stovall's economic market barometer GM...if GM ain't doing well, the world is down the crapper. Or looked at a different way, if GM is making money as inefficinet as it has been, everybody is making lots of money.
]
HB

I did enjoy the taxi around the runway. Maybe tomorrow we fly, yes?

CNBC breaking news... Lewinsky admits having sex with Clinton to independent council. Lanny Davis is on the air a few minutes later and proclaims "The american people will stand by the president should he choose not to comply with court order to testify before grand jury".
Say what? Get ready for the following Clinton speach:

"As you may know, I have chosen to disregard the supreme court and congress, and will refuse to testify before the grand jury. In response, I
expect congress to begin impeachment hearings. In response I have
issued an executive order declaring any such impeachment hearings
against the national interest. I ask the american people, to stand with me in oppostion of those who would starve our children, poison our air, and deprive our elderly of medical care."

Within an hour of the speach, CNBC breaking news... Armored personel
carriers have surrounded the capital. We have unconfirmed reports of
gunfire within the capital building...

You picked a good . Try GE and Motorola??

http://www.msnbc.com/news/175797.asp

We checked out the runway pretty good and found no potholes, except maybe a little dip down there near the end. Tonight we'll be wheelin 'er back up to the other end. I don't know if we'll try it tomorrow again or not. I had kind of thought if it didn't fly today it wouldn't fly till a little later in the week, but if you want to have another go at it I guess that's ok.

I bet whichever one it is, it'll be one that correlates with bond prices pretty well.

With the overvalued U.S.A. dollar and the depressed currencies of the far east, the price of gold becomes very exspensive in that part of the world.
Perhaps the word wimp should be replaced with smart.

It is interesting to watch the debate over the Y2K problem unfold, especially on KITCO.

Whether the problem will be a major or minor disruption in actuality is yet to be seen. One thought that occurs to me is represented by a line out of Shakespeare something to the effect that the agony of death is in the anticipation.

The conventional economic definition of money supply ( M1 ) is currency and checking accounts with checking accounts being the bigger part of M1. Both these are liabilities on bank balance sheets. The currency is a liability on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Checking accounts are liabilities on the balance sheets of all banks.

Your local bank has a checking account with the Federal Reserve bank and also has some currency in its vault. Local banks hold currency and a Federal Reserve checking account as part of its reserves. It uses these reserves to cover demands on it from customers for currency or for clearing customer checks. If it has excess reserves it can make new loans. If it has a shortage of reserves it can acquire some by borrowing from the Federal Reserve ( Fed takes a note and increased the local bank's checking account ) or by borrowing from another bank that has excess reserves.

Back in the old days when gold was held as a reserve it was possible to close a bank by a run, because there was only so much gold and it was a fraction of the gold certificates and checking accounts ( fractional reserve banking ) . It is now probably impossible to have a run on the banking system that will shut the doors. Even if everyone wanted currency, the Fed if it so chose, could have the Treasury run the presses, loan this out to local banks and then customers would just hold currency ( the liability of the FED ) instead of checking accounts ( the liability of their local bank ) . This would not directly change M1 by one cent, so it is inaccurate to think that printing currency would have an inflationary effect.

One thing this would do is to reduce the reserves of banks ( instead of them having currency in their vaults as part of its reserves, you the customer would have that currency stowed in your matress ) and this would make it diffiicult for them to expand the money supply. ( No reserves, no new loans and new loans are the way new money is created. ) This is very deflationary.

It is possible that in anticipation of the Y2K problem that people will give up some or all of their checking acocunts in favor of currency. Even if the Y2K problem turns out to be a fizzle, the precautionary action taken in anticipation could result in a big slowdown in money creation.

Interesting side effect if it happens.

Smart would be if they were doing soething everyone else wasn't doing and coming out the better for it. Unfortuneatly they do everything everyone else is doing and come out the worse for it.

Many of you may be familiar with Marc Faber... he operates out of Hong Kong, and is a well known economist/analyst. I recently read some remarks of his made recently at an investment conference.

Someone from the floor asked him, "what are the prospects for gold?"

Well, i remember being at an investment conference like this one, in the early 80's. At that conference, common wisdom was that gold was going into the many thousands of dollars an ounce...that oil would continue to soar, that only fools would invest in stocks. The fact that EVERYONE had reached this conclusion was enough to discredit it.

Then some BoneHead gets up and asks, What about NOW???

AT this moment, it has taken nearly 20 years to get everyone into the other camp. Almost everyone believes that financial assets are the only place to be... that gold, oil and other physical commodities are only for fools.

My gut feeling is that we are once again nearing a key turning point and that wealth is getting ready to be transferred to individuals who are out ahead of the curve. ( Like a lot of us here at Kitco...YAHOOOO! )

I've heard that Mr. Faber is no "gold bug." Thus, the fact that he is advocating investors to begin accumulating significant positions is very telling.

Buying gold here feels a lot like buying stocks in 1981... everyone thinks you are crazy. but i think sometime in the next five years, the crowd will think us far from crazy.

I have worked at the Sigma mine and know something about the Val d'Or camp. McWatters paid far too much for these two properties. Mine life at Kienna is in some doubt; Sigma is a relic. The investor can do far better than this in the Cdn. gold scene.

sam__A ( not sam! )

If so, whom do I contact?

@Gollum: I think AT&T is an interest sensitive stock.
@Chas: Once I get my spreadsheet up and running, I'll be able to compare multiple stocks against the POG as a bench mark.
@Hopefull: Thomas Crapper is my all time favorite inventor. Having a real good Sh!t is one of the real pleasures in life.

Adios for tonight Amigos

Yeah; Bill Fleckenstein is right on. In his comments he refers to a NY Times article on Internet "Portals". Here 'tis, it is right on too!! If you are still holding any of those internet thingies, or "waiting for a "dip" to buy'em, ( Nah, NOBODY on this forum would be in that group! But some lurkers might ) , or trying to decide when/if to SHORT 'em, this is a must read:
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/articles/27tech.html
Here are a couple paragraphs from the article:
"According to "The Great Portal Shakeout," a recent report by Forrester
Research, the top nine portals -- those of Alta Vista, America Online, Excite, Infoseek, Lycos, Microsoft, Netscape, Snap and Yahoo -- account for a mere 15 percent of all Internet traffic. Yet they attract 59 percent of all advertising revenue on the Internet, an extraordinary 293 percent premium.
Network television, in contrast, attracts 67 percent of all viewers and 84 percent of advertising, for a 25 percent premium.
Yet despite this enormous bonus, only the two largest portals, America Online and Yahoo, have so far managed to eke out a net income. This reality, said Chris Charron, the analyst who was the lead author of the Forrester report, makes the infant portal industry ripe for a shakeout that will leave only three or four winners dividing at most 20 percent of Internet traffic by 2002."

Does it have to be a positive correlation? How about a very good but negative correlation?

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/072498/met_2b3MARIN.html

PM's are up a little as Hong Kong opens.

There is a natural balance between the cost of the products we choose and the benefit we receive from each of those products. We each do the best we can for ourselves, some doing better than others, but anyone not following this principle would soon become economically, if not actually extinct.

As most KITCO's know, over the course of history people have reached the concensus that gold and silver work best as money, and have chosen those "products".

Aside from the physical characteristics, the precious metals are scarce and there is a cost to mine new metal which keeps the supply in balance with the demand, i.e. the market is generally not easily flooded with new money. Gold is honest money in the sense that what you get is what you see.

People who wish to take wealth from you against your desires like to follow the path of least resistance in doing so. They of course must use force and since we all have a natural tendency to resist force, there is danger to criminals that their prey will fight back and cause injury or death. Fraud is safer for the criminal than are many other forms of crime.

This is why politicians and bankers prefer paper money to gold, and this is why they have agreed to make this fraud "legal". This is why governemnt has granted to itself a monopoly over money and then subcontracted the monopoly to the banks. Paper money is a way to take wealth from you. It is a perfect con game because it can be conducted in the open without most people realizing they are being had. When the majority are "rubes" it is difficult for the rest of us to avoid the negative consequences of this scam.

The battle between precious metals and paper money is really the battle between freedom vs. slavery, between honesty vs. immorality, between free exchange vs.theft.

I think that government itself is the greatest fraud. It is just plunder in the disguise of protection, the "legal" equivalent of the Mafia protection racket. The fractional reserve banking system is just a secondary fraud carried on by people of similar mind.

I doubt that either of these major frauds will be widely understood for many lifetimes to come. The only good thing about this is that periodically when the paper scam gets out of hand there will be an opportunity to make money in gold. I still believe that we a not quite to the final bottom in gold shares. If the stock market goes into the 30%+ correction that I am expecting then the gold shares should suffer for yet a short while longer.

I asked him what he was most afraid of and he mentioned two
things. The first is that we seem to be one of the few
nations working hard to eliminate year 2000 problems in our
military. Ian worries about the programming of all those
missiles out there. The second thing he is afraid of is the
state of businesses on the Pacific Rim. They have so many
economic and business problems most haven't even begun to
think about fixing their computers.
He also said the legal posturing is slowing everything down
and told me of an instance where several pharmaceutical
companies had gotten together to talk about their common Y2K
problems, but their lawyers forced them to stop meeting,
saying it would be seen as an anti-trust issue. Thankfully,
the government has cleared the way on this matter.

I asked him how he thought things would go. He told me he
was optimistic but because of the slow response he was
becoming more and more concerned. He then gave me a good
yardstick to evaluate how we are doing. He said that
January of 1999 would be the month to watch because so many
business systems look forward one year. If we don't hear
very much about Y2K failures, and we don't experience a lot
of annoying problems such as long lines, difficulty in
finding essential information, long computer waits and so
on, that will be a good sign that the year 2000 is not going
to be as bad as the gloom and doomers say.

But if a lot of systems go out it will show us two things.
The first is that everyone started too late and things are
going to get bad. The second is more ominous, for it means
that because the problem took them by surprise, no
contingency planning was done. Mark your calendars. Watch
what happens in January. How many companies will be
affected, and how long will it take them to fix the
problems? By the middle of February we should have a pretty
good indication of how serious this thing will become.


Best Practices,

Jon Huntress
jon@year2000.com
The Year 2000 Information Center

http://www.year2000.com


This coverage is Copyright 1998 Year2000.com Partnership

Don is on with Chuck Harder now

www.chuckharder.com

Better to be informed than sorry- I looks like Old-Gold may be
correct in calling for a final washout before we move up, and
it may come soon. Take a look at this long termer of XAU, and notice
it past bottoms in 86 and 92.

http://www.tscn.com/wsc/technical.html?Button=RUN&Timespan=MAX&Symbol=XAU.X?d=S,204,12,26,9,0&PH=2&TESelect=204

Someone asked about the reliability of the Crash index at wwfn.com/crashupdate.html
Well, last weeks reading for the week starting June 20th was at -4. But the page for the week starting June 27th ( which now stands at -10 ) makes a reference to last week's reading at -6. I'm sure it is a typo, but that does little to inspire confidence.

On a crashy sort of note, are there any option experts out there? If so, could someone help me sort the following out:
I reckon that Dow Jones equity index options on the CBOE ( intrinsically worth $1 per dow point ) compared to Dow Jones serial options on the CBOT ( intrinsically worth $10 per dow point ) cost roughly 1/10th ( assuming you take similar expiration dates and strike prices ) . If we assume that the costs are similar ( ignoring differences in commission rates: my broker charges 1.5% premium + $3 dealing charge per option for CBOE puts but charges a flat $30 per CBOT option ) then the 2 types of options are roughly evenly priced. But CBOE options, being cheaper, offer the buyer a greater liquidity ( you can get 50 CBOE options but only 5 CBOT options, for example, thereby allowing you greater freedom to sell or hold differing proportions as you go along ) . Would it then be fair to say that, since you do not pay a cost premium for this increased liquidity, that CBOE options increase less in value with changes in the dow than CBOT options ( you pay for the luxury of liquidity, not via premium, but by forgoing potential return ) ?
i.e. if you expected a large movement in the DJIA, would you fair better taking CBOE options or CBOT options?

Any words of wisdom much appreciated. Thanks.

d:o/

Looks a lot like an old fashioned double bottom out there on the right end.

If Clinton is exposed, and that pin-pricks the bubble, wouldn't markets tank while POG rises? Seems to me that would be an ideal scenerio.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2119
By most accounts, yesterday was pretty typical for Jacksonville, traffic snaking its way through downtown streets, pedestrians broiling in the summertime heat, commerce buzzing along, boats leisurely motoring up the St. Johns River.

But for a group of about 100 Marines, Jacksonville was a city under siege, ripped asunder by the fighting of the fictitious ''Jaguer'' and ''Dolphenes'' political factions, the latter headed by the evil military boss, Gen. Danne Marinoe.

Participating in a cutting edge military exercise known as ''Urban Warrior,'' these Marines' mission was to figure out how to wrest control of key parts of the city.

I've got an errie feeling that things are about to unravel as we speak.
Somehow irregardeless of past reactions me thinks gold and silver will hold their own. Just a feeling.

Whar yu ben 'Beetle??? Give us another PIC of yu, I shore liked it afore!!

Anyone who missed Mtn Bear's posting at 20:50 should go back
and read!

Anyone know where I could get a few years worth of closing prices for gold in ASCII format?

The reason I ask is that it seems to be the informed opinion of many folks posting on this site that the price of gold is being manipulated. It occurred to me that if this was the case, then some number-crunching of the time series should reveal that over a long period of time, the time-series is not, in fact, anywhere close to a random walk. It should be highly anti-persistent. Just for fun, I was gonna test this hypothesis....

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2114

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Drucker on Society's Imminent Turning Points: A New Society
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2110

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Transfer of Noncompliant Data to a Compliant Machine
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2123

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No Insurance for Cars That Won't Start in 2000 Because of Chip Failure
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2115

You may prove right, but until the down move is completed it's
anyone's guess. Just brought up the chart for comparison purposes
as it looks like either way is a possibility.

Lost your email address- Reify@sitcom.co.il
How's your wife?

Here's a source for the data, but you may
have to manipulate the tables to convert to
and ASCII format:

http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix2.html

And here is the more recent data:

http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html

http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=59656

Yea, I need a record deal. huh? or maybe an audience of drunk goldbugs...yea, that's it!!! By jove!, and....Where have you been?

Thanks!

I could not load the most recent data due to an error, but I'll give the old data a try. Thanks again!

Sell your stocks and buy some gold and silver..

]~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Did Wall Street "Pass" the Test?
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9830.htm

You old libertarian.
How go your charts?

http://www.globalfindata.com/tbgold.htm

Rock solid.

Glad you are listening. I am getting interferance everytime Don speaks. Are you getting the same. They are scrambling Don's replys.

I am listening to the For The People show about Y2K on RealAudio. It is interesting, but the reception is terrible. I liked the suggestion to sell stocks and buy gold. The big guys are exiting and dumping their stocks on the suckers.
http://www.chuckharder.com/

Did you notice that the MACD issued a buy signal today !
Take a look at the two day version.
Go Au !

Oh, BTW -I have absolutely NO idea what you
mean by the data being anti-persistent.
( ;^ ) )

Nite nite.....

Go Silver ( and gold too )

Re the "Double Bottom" on Reify's chart: the double bottom shown represents the entire history from January to date; if you were to try to utilize the double bottom theory to trade, you would have to wait for a close above 93.50 for confirmation; that is too much of the potential move to waste IMHO. Gold is tough to trade and make money, we all know that I think. To drive that point home look at the net result of MACD trades in all that time ( that same chart in the lower right corner ) : All that time , 11 trades, -24%. Well folks, that is bout where I ended up with my gold trades over the last 6 years. The first 4 I was cocky and "learning"; the last 2 just STOOPID!

Because I ain't selling. Suffering with this esteemed group
is simply too informative and enjoyable,

( and every dog has his day. )

Thanks! I have been sproradically posting my little charts on my wife's web site:
http://www.pcis/jeannev/jeil.htm

I have been away for a few weeks getting to know my new grandson. He is quite a nice little fellow.

Also, I have been a little withdrawn, brooding over my failure to get my charts to work better. I still have a profit on my short position on Homestake, but I dropped more than I wanted to on the expiration of some Homestake July 10 puts. I really thought we would have a big break by then, but then that is the risk.

I am about to buy some more Homestake puts for a short term trade. I will feel more comfortable this autumn if we get a bottom and I can go long, which when it comes to gold and goldshares, is my natural inclination.

In spite of my missed top in the S&P500 I am really convinced that we are past the top and on the way to 700. I did some work on a longer data series going back to the late 1930 on the S&P500 and came up with the same results that I have on the original series I was using ( that posted on the above web site ) .

This exercise in Jacksonville FL. is Preparedness for Martial Law
Military have been practicing in a number of cities.
They will bottle up 120 major cities where 80% of population lives.
State of Emergency is to control people. There will be riots, looting and insurrection.
They do not practice for something that is not going to happen.
Fema has now lodging "Project Impact" and Fema is no longer under authority of Congress. They are now under control of Security Council.
Gov't setting up the infrastructure for martial law.
Moral of the story. Pack your bags city slickers and head for the rural areas and small towns.

http://www.barney.co.za/july98/drd27.htm

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of
Representatives
July 24, 1998

It is not possible to corner a market for financial futures where the underlying asset or its equivalent is in essentially unlimited supply. Financial derivative contracts are fundamentally different from agricultural futures owing to the nature of the underlying asset from which the derivative contract is "derived." Supplies of foreign exchange, government securities, and certain other financial instruments are being continuously replenished, and large inventories held throughout the world are immediately available to be offered in markets if traders endeavor to
create an artificial shortage. Thus, unlike commodities whose supply is limited to a particular growing season and finite carryover, the markets for financial instruments and their derivatives are deep and, as a consequence, are extremely difficult to manipulate.

Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. ( Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years. ) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.

That's probably good advice for large city dwellers anytime

Whoops! I tried to post this comment with an "URL", but I see the whole message got blocked, so I am resubmitting with the "http" part of the address missing. Maybe that will work.

Thanks! I have been sproradically posting my little charts on my wife's web site:
//www.pcis/jeannev/jeil.htm

I have been away for a few weeks getting to know my new grandson. He is quite a nice little fellow.

Also, I have been a little withdrawn, brooding over my failure to get my charts to work better. I still have a profit on my short position on Homestake, but I dropped more than I wanted to on the expiration of some Homestake July 10 puts. I really thought we would have a big break by then, but then that is the risk.

I am about to buy some more Homestake puts for a short term trade. I will feel more comfortable this autumn if we get a bottom and I can go long, which when it comes to gold and goldshares, is my natural inclination.

In spite of my missed top in the S&P500 I am really convinced that we are past the top and on the way to 700. I did some work on a longer data series going back to the late 1930 on the S&P500 and came up with the same results that I have on the original series I was using ( that posted on the above web site ) .

http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1998/view0798.htm

Thot I had heard all AG's comments but sure as heck missed the punch line!!!

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of
Representatives
July 24, 1998
"---- Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another
commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise. "

MtnBear...what a mountain gold will have to climb if the CB's stand ready to lease gold to contain the price... how much gold can the CB's lease anyway, and can we goldbugs ever hope to see the price rise given this statement by Greenspan???

MtnBear...what a mountain gold will have to climb if the CB's stand ready to lease gold to contain the price... how much gold can the CB's lease anyway, and can we goldbugs ever hope to see the price rise given this statement by Greenspan???

Remember AG is a central banker; he is doing his part to "talk it ( POG ) down". Something will trigger a bull move sometime. Watch, wait, keep your powder dry.

Yes the reception is terrible.
It's impossible to listen to Don.
Glad I already know the story.

Do you think the Gov't is blocking the signal?

Historically, Gov'ts have robbed their citisens of their wealth thru
monitary devaluation. AG will not allow this to happen on his watch.
He is a friend to us all, but must shrowd his intended message like
Nostradamus, no?

"CAPITALISM: The Unknown Ideal" published by Ayn Rand is a compilation of articles on liberty.

Here are direct quotes from one of the articles entitled "Gold and Economic Freedom":

"An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense- - perhap more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire - - that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other."

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

Sound like someone who belongs on KITCO.

Get ready for a shock; the author is none other than a 32 year younger Alan Greenspan.

Did you notice his recent comment before Congress that he preferred the gold standard although he was in a minority among central bankers.

Feel confused?? I do.

When the Asian contagion hits the countries whose CB's Greenspan states are ready to loan their gold........will they? If they do, they fail along with the ( their ) proposed global order.
The ploy will be to give that impression, you will be saturated with media bull. The reality is that Greenspan's sweat will bill an olympic size swimming pool. Will all that liquid extinguish the flames? Or simply, he's worried.

One more thing before signing off: AG is between a rock and a hard place: I&D. If Inflation, gold moves sooner; if Deflation we may have to wait quite a while. He also has to worry about the impending market crash too don't yu know!!! All for now, Best regards; Mtn Bear

depress the POG, but eventually the POG gets so low ( like now ) that
THE MAJORITY OF GOLD MINES CAN NO LONGER PRODUCE AT A PROFIT. At
this point the POG rises because producer induced shortages develop.
The CBs must at this point drop one month lease rates below 1% to
keep the short selling active. There are cases where under 1% lease
rates lasted for over a year, but eventually the mine production is
so reduced that real shortages develop, and demand for leased gold
pushes the lease rates up, snuffing the gold carry, and gold explodes.
The best analogy to this process that I have heard was posted here
at Kitco, where the author compared the POG to a basketball and the
CBs as a person who tries to push the basketball ever deeper underwater.
This works for a while, but the density of the water keeps rising as
supply dries up and eventually the basketball erupts. The longer and
harder the ball is held under, the bigger and higher the eruption.

DOW FALL death to Thatcher-Reagan Corporatist Dictatorship and a victory for FREEDOM! All free people welcome its coming like the Jews welcomed liberation in Aushwitz. Down with Thatcher Reaganism the blot on western DEMOCRACY..We will overcome the REAGAN THATCHER FRAUD as Americans are basically good honest people and they can overcome this cancer as they basically love freedom and hate slavery.

traveling to vegas sunday i was fortunate[sic] to have the honor of sitting next to henry cisneros.....his fortunes reversed due to weakness of the flesh, he is a beaten man.....he has retreated to representing a specific ethnic group from the la area....relegated to ignomanity...

as will klinton..........lies and women.....what a legacy for the x-generation....'high times and green grass forever'...the outlaws
is a pipe dream

the peopleo that are part of the daily turkey shoot here are proof positive....

a call is only a 'bad' call if you let your losses run, or have not used the devices built into the system for protection....many small losses are negligable when compared to one properly placed futures trade.....

there are peopleo here who would 'ride' a horse with-out ever having mounted the steed.....their cajones are the size of my daughters...

cherokee...riding.the.thermals.of.the.hidden.rivers.....

strong democracy with healthy voter turnouts ( US does not have ) and
healthy unions with sound labour rights. ( US does have except in
some states )

All: From Matt Drudge site: Monica admits having sexual relations with the president. Apparently K Starr has at least 40 photos of WJC with Monica -- some fairly intimate.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/175797.asp

Thanks for heads up on Nick Chase's letter. Favorite idea from the July issue--The meltdown of this stock mania before Y2K is the best no brainer around. --I'm thinking Microsoft, Dell, Nations Bank-whatever, and FedEx might be good candidates for LEAP puts. The airlines and autos look ripe also.

is not the Government but the growth of Capital's control over government. The destroyer of Liberty and Choice is private capital as it uses and discredits government so as to create a distaste for democracy. In fact, the govt is with a proper separation of powers is an enemy of capital as it provides protection for those withoput wealth. This is most compared to the super rich. The stk mkt gains are important to maintaining this false ethos as everyone thinks they are an investment guru. Further, if people believe their entrtepreneurial spirits will make them rich they are immune to defending entitlements that the CORPS know they will have to pay for ( one way or another in the future ) unless they can gain concensus thru the corporate media that people want to "reform" these programs people have paid for. The corporatists demand MAX welfare to bailout their investments worldwide. Naturally paying back people for what they paid for in Social Security is an anthema and something that will always be attacked as an "entitlement" as it will interfere with the ability to bailout the big boys...Thus make people think they are welfare cheats for asking for what they are owed..Pretty clever. WALL STs MISERY IS THE AVERAGE AMERICANS VICTORY.. ITS CONTINUED FRAUD IS OUR SORROW!!

Prople have to understand that the corporate money is the enemy and that the Structure of govt is the friend. The rich and the corporations hate democratic govt as it restricts their potential to exploit and make profits. The same grouyp disparages trial lawyers for the same reason as they give the vlittle guy the ability to challenge their power. The true capitalists hates law unless it protects him. Yes, in investments world wide they want all manner of protection from what might happen in a country where they are exploiting cheap labor at the expense of the US workers. But in the US "get rid of those dam job costin trial lawyers". the fraud is obvious and it is the lawyers who provide the last vestige of defense against Corporatist hegemony in America. AMERICA IT IS NOT BIG GOVT THATS THE PROBLEM...IT IS THE BIG CORPORATIONS THAT ARE THE PROBLEM/ TAX EM HARD EN HEAVY..THEY MOVE OFFSHORE ENCOURAGE FOREIGN WORKERS TO STRIKE AND GOVTS THREATEN TO NATIONALIZE!!We can make it!

All: Only a few weeks after WJC visits China, the Chinese leaders renew their commitments -- even to using force if necessary to annex Taiwan.
http://www.foxnews.com/nav/wires_news.sml
I wonder what Taiwan thinks about the president's trip to China.

In Racist Nazi Germany they wrongfully said "the Jews are our misfortune".
In 1998+ Corporatist America history will rightfully show that "Wall St is our misfortune"..this will be shown by history to be a TRUTH.

back as a nation. I just hope the Liberal media and "unbiased journalism"
goes down with him.

Sharefin: I read the contents of the URL that you provided. The part about needing a sample size of 1500 in order for a survey to be statistically significant is untrue. Moreover it shows a distinct lack of understanding of statistics by the author. If these guys want to be credible, they should try to get their facts straight.

Rhody: That was me. By the way, after reading your post, and reflecting on your insight, I realized one other thing: This dollar/gold carry is an addiction -- a nonlinear process -- that probably will not burn itself out until all the CB bank gold is either sold or loaned. Why? Because the 'fiat currency' must be defended 'at all cost'.
So the dollar/gold carry is like so many other things in economics -- those computer chips are over produced until some of the producers are forced out, oil is over produced until some of the producers are forced out of business with dropping oil prices, and likewise for gold producers. The dollar/gold carry is following a nonlinear process, amplified by recent deflationary trends in the US dollar.
It will take a major disruption, IMHO, to shift the equilibrium the other way, and gold will reinforce the other way on the way back up. Frightening thought. We just need to know when the CB's run out of steam -- probably soon. The shift the other way could be explosive -- with rising gold and dropping dollar.
By the way the strongest argument against simple US deflation like in the 30's is that this time a significant portion of our debt is foreign. The US dollar will drop dramatically when we meet our day of reckoning, and trigger an inflationary trend. This will not happen until foreign investors have a suitable alternative to the US dollar/US markets, IMHO.
So -- gold will go up, IMHO -- even without any internal signs of inflation.

stock market are in trouble. Try some puts in the AM on any strength.

I dont like him but heck is better than a gingrich who wants to lower taxes on the rich with SS money. I like Clinton as I know he will veto such absurdities. A good stk mkt crash and depression will bring back progressive govt and raise taxes on the rich and the corporations. And if they want to leave our nation, fine good riddance we will take their infrastructure and refuse to come to their aid in another country when that govt wants to take their investments unless they pay the American people thru the nose otherwise let em burn. Dont know about you but I am sick of corporate welfare and dependence. We need corporate personal responsibility in overseas investments. These lazy institutions have to stop giving birth to all manner of bad loans and investments overseas. The only way to stop the growth of these illegitimate creations is to cut off the welfare and encourage PERSONAL RESPONSIBILTY. This is the key!!PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY AND COMPETITIVENESS NOW!!

Well, I thought I would explain anti-persistent once I crunched the time-series, ;- ) but that ain't gonna happen any time soon 'cause kitco must present those gold data tables in some graphic manner, 'cause downloading as text produces explanatory text, but no data. Sigh.

I'm into analyzing time-series based on physiological signals. That could range from the time series generated by the elapsed time between heartbeats, to the voltage/time signal from an EEG. One of the properties of these time-series is that they are correlated. That is, the magnitude and trends of the previous signals influences the magnitudes and trends of future signals. This is what I mean by "auto-correlation." The function which generates the time-series is of course unknown, but the characteristics of the time-series can be examined to determine the direction ( if any ) of the auto-correlation. By direction, I mean whether whether trends within the series tend to be re-enforced ( persistence ) or negated ( anti-persistence ) .

Electrical engineers characterize dynamics of some time-series using an informal terminology which describes the noise. "White noise," or 1/f0 noise, is what you get when the time-series is infinitely anti-persistent, so that any increasing trend or decreasing trend tends to be quickly reversed. If you look at a graph of white noise over time, it has a very fine saw-tooth like appearance. As the magnitude of "anti-persistence" decreases, the graph becomes progressively smoother. Trends have a little more "time" to develop. As the magnitude of the anti-persistence goes to zero, you pass a point which the EE's call 1/f noise, or "pink noise." The audio fuzz you hear in between radio stations is a pretty good example. Finally, when the magnitude of the anti-persistence ( or persistence, see next ) is zero, you get to so-called 1/f2 noise, or "brown noise" which is essentially a random walk. That is, the next "step" in the signal cannot be predicted based on the past. ( Even at this point, the time-series is infinitely auto-correlated, but I ain't got space to explain why ) As you move past zero, you get into a mirror image of anti-persistence, that is persistence. The time-series dynamics now tend to re-enforce trends and the graph becomes relatively smooth. You eventually reach a point where the time-series is completely persistent, which the EE's call "black noise," or 1/f3 noise.

Stock market buying decisions are made by "biological economic units." BEU's...Everyone is looking at some data, trends, values, P/E's, volume, news, weather, other BEU's, the Red Sox scores, WH tomfoolery, malt prices, etc. In this sense, the output of the BEU's, buying or selling, based on the various inputs, can be considered self-modifying, based on what other BEU's are doing. The output signal generated by the BEU network, such as the DJIA, is part of the input of the BEU's. It is not surprising, then, that these time-series are not completely "random" but have properties that are "determined" by a self-modifying function of sorts. Sometimes the word "Chaotic" is applied to these time-series, but it really trashes the Greek root of the word, so I prefer "non-linear."

Over long periods of time, the DJIA is pretty close to a random walk around a very long term trend line. It only takes a very small excess of buying over selling to generate the long-term trend.

OTOH, what I was thinking is that if gold was being manipulated lower, then we should clearly see a persistent dynamic over long periods of time, since the "function" generating the price, ( the thousands of average BEU's, along with a few dozen serious shorter BEU's ) would be biased. i.e everytime the stuff goes up, someone steps in and shorts it! Of course, the function could be biased for other reasons, but that's for other posts! Note that trend and persistence mean two different things here.

sorry if this post was too long. back to recreational lurking!

Sharefin, It is really hard to say. I think it is on a different frequency at night than during the day live. It sure seems strange though that before Don came on there was no interference. The program was on live during the day so the powers to be would know the repeat program was being rebroadcast in the evening so.........