Where is everybody..............?????

Not

OK

Since nobody else is here, and bandwidth on this fine eve is not at a premium, here is installment 2 of the great 1997 KGB PGM saga.


7.28.97

Had my feet up on the desk, leaning back in the chair as the sun, shining through the window, warmed my face nearly as much as the drop in gold has warmed my new shorts. Once again, I was chortling at the WSJ and the importance ascribed to the stately words of AG, who imagines himself protector and leader of the Way. And what a wonderful Way it is, but meaningless to those of us with the security only several storage units filled with platinum can bring. All the better that the platinum bore the likeness, stamped in each bar, of Czar Nicholas Roamnov, a hapless soul whose greatest sin was to rub his wealth in the faces of the squalid masses with a bit too much enthusiasm.

Yes, the day was bright, and once again, matched my mood. A hummingbird was hovering outside my office window, nearly motionless except for the blur of wings. I could swear the little guy winked and gave a friendly grin before fluttering to its next nectar nirvana. Its a hard thing to do, recognizing the grin of a hummingbird, it takes a keen eye and a sober perspective. It was a gleeful, almost Disneyesque smile on its little tubular proboscis, with an added slyness which seemed imply that it had some secret piece of information from his peculiar hummingbird world that, if only could be taught to mankind, would give greater meaning and understanding to our confusing existence. Or maybe the big bug was simply plastered and bleary eyed after a two day nectar binge that has erased all reason and replaced it with the same vapid grin that all drunks seem to get right after slamming down five or six tequila shooters, and just before getting into some really serious drinking.

Screw him, I thought. What does he know about anything? Flittering from blossom to blossom sucking sickly sweet nectar until its belly becomes distended and looks more like Ralph Cramdon than the universal symbol of grace and beauty, and then only to micturate to make room for more. Ive got better things to do than idly muse over avifauna of this ilk.

Preparing once again to jump back in the pits and do some real trading, I spied a vaguely familiar face four floors down and across the street. I grabbed my binoculars - kept close at hand to monitor the raising and lowering of the pretty lasses hem lines over the years, after all one must keep abreast of these things. With a start, I realized why this figure was so familiar; when last we met, I left with his wallet, his Rolex ( which actually turned out to be a Romex ) , and a fat envelope stuffed with cash and directions to an enormous horde of 80 year old platinum.

My fine Rooskie friend was with another of his kind, a mean looking fellow built like a fireplug. That his partner was also Russian was evident in the cruelly Slavic features rudely stamped on his face, and the telltale single eyebrow that reached from one side of his head to the other. Hanging off the arms of each of these menacing characters were a couple of blond chippies, with obviously augmented breasts proudly displayed in sweaters at least three sizes to small. The group was rounded off by a fifth member, who I recognized as one of the local property managers who was in charge of locating office space for new tenants.

I couldnt believe my eyes, these clowns were trying to set up shop? Here? On my turf? Ha! Not likely. I called security and asked for Rocco, a brute of a man that looks like a refuge from professional wrestling, and entirely as surly as his name implies. Rocco had no love lost for the Russians and was of the same opinion as Patton, General George S. when he said, "we should have fought those bastards in 1945 when we had the army in place to do it."

"Yeah, Rocco, RJ here. Ive got a piece of work for you." His voice came back, like nails thrown up against a corrugated tin shed, "You name it, Arj, whatever you need". I told him there were a couple of Russians across the street with two underage hookers and it looks as though they are thinking of moving in to our neighborhood. I let this outrage sink in and waited for Rocco to reach the boiling point. When it came, his voice had a frightening calmness. "I know just what to do Mr. R, leave it to me". I settled back in my chair to watch the events unfold, knowing I had set loose a fundamental force of nature that, once unleashed, would move inexorably to its grim conclusion, like a tsunami with a vendetta.

The local TV stations were abuzz this evening with the story of two Russians arrested with three ounces of cocaine, two concealed Glock 9mm handguns, and a pipe bomb. That one of the girls with them when they were arrested was the seventeen year old daughter of a state senator, helped them not in the least. Serves em right, the sons of bitches. They never paid a dime for all that lend lease equipment that did more to win WW II, than any drunken band of Cossacks. This is my back yard and I put out no welcome signs. If you want to play here, be ready to play for keeps. Besides, it wouldnt do to have these fellows so close. Im still holding better than three hundred thousand ounces of their platinum and Ive had it long enough to consider it mine. Yep, just another day in the neighborhood, and tomorrow will be a fine day to count my profits from my gold shorts.

Indeedy

So, did you get the blondes phone numbers? Its a slow night so I thought I would ask before the rest. ( G )

I read the Miner too.
All good things come to an end ( not the Miner ) as many mining investor well knows and you have no know that few companies make their projected targets, the reasons being to numerous and the explanation to complex.
Make an offer for the Brooklyn Bridge, but I must warn you that the deck gussets and rivets are showing signs of wear due to loading repitions and weather and the cables have elongated somewhat.

Drudge says that Lewinsky used her computer "like a diary" and that Ken Starr has a "mountain of evidence" against BC and her and a picture of BC staring intently into Monica's eyes, lost in love as he holds her two hands in his while facing each other--only one of 85! Says the world will be saying "if we only knew" after seeing these pictures! Looks bad for Bill as his advisors want him to stall until after the Fall elections, but Ken Starr wants to get him now before the Fall elections! Either way, BC IS DEAD MEAT! The evidenc is overwhelming and Ken Starr HAS IT and is going to see that the world has it too!

Just got back from buying some power ball tickets at the state line. Huge traffic jams. I asked my sister in law if she wanted to kick in a dollar for a lotto ticket. Her answer, no I never win those things. I asked her how many times do you have any kind of chance to win a quarter of a BILLION dollars. Made no difference. Classic example of the class half empty or half full. I noted a few questions tonight. I'll try to get to them tomorrow.

Is it possible that all this WJC news is a smokescreen to divert peoples minds from what really is happening.
I think that they will covertly slide a few more laws thru, non of which will enhance the original intent laid out by the founders.

restaurant for whoever wants to come to the TO get-together dinner. Time is 7:00 pm, Thur. July 30, at the Cafe con Libros, 208 Bloor St. W., on the North side of the street across from the ROM.

It is a short walk from either the Museum subway stop or the St. George stop. If you drive there are meters along Bloor, and if you turn right on Bedford St. or left into the Conservatory there is parking.

Write to Stephen Mooney to let him know you'd like to come:

moonstep@idirect.com

Best wishes,
Steve Ross

oleman . . Tue, Jul 28, 7:53PM CST
wd: I've bought below previous day's low 3 days in a row now. Not a bad way
to make a living. The one that gives me a trade that I can hold past the
close aint come yet. Wont be tomorrow, either. Tomorrow should be a buying
day, but these lows must be tested again on stronger internals. Period. I
will be vigilant so as not to miss any sell signals as we rally.

dgoto . . Tue, Jul 28, 8:31PM CST
I hear the Russians are preparing to sell one of their Minsk Aircraft
carriers. I wonder who is buying ( CHINA ) ??
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Loosing job over sex??? How can any leader never mind PRESIDENT to put
himself and entire country in such a position? It is about STUPIDITY
if anything..He should be fired on a spot just for that if he was not
elected...
As the Russian saying goes "The biggest and most important sex organ is
Brain"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jim Stack
Yesterday's 90pt rally ( and 2pt gain in the Nasdaq ) was on the worst breadth
imaginable. Worse than for any other 90pt DJIA gain of the past 10 years.

Of perhaps greater importance, Japan actually rallied last night... our gold
stock index rallied on today's decline... and bonds have been sliding. Those
events indicate that this bear will not START in a deflationary mode. And
that means profits are possible ( if not probable ) in our gold stock and
Japan Fund position.
.

David
Good to hear from you, always enjoy your posts!
About your comment on Precious Metals ( FDPMX )
as compared to Select Gold ( FSAGX ) . My memory tells
me that FSAGX has outperformed FDPMX for the past several
years. However, when we have a Gold Rally like 5 years ago
FDPMX greatly outperformed FSAGX. So as far as my data
goes, you are correct. That is when FDPMX greatly exceeds the
gains of FSAFX, it's Bullish for Gold.
Best Regards
Schippi

George Gilbert was charged with bestiality performed with a sheep. Albert Harris ( AH ) , and agricultuural labourer was called as a witness for the Crown. Part of the evidence included:

Prosecutor: "Mr Harris, on the day in question, were you proceeding along a lane adjacent to the farm of Mr Clarke?"

AH: "I was."

Prosecutor: "Would you describe for His Lordship what you saw?"

AH: "Well, George Gilbert was standing in the doorway of the barn with a sheep."

Prosecutor: "Yes, and what was he doing?"

AH: "Well, he was messing round with the sheep."

Prosecutor: "By that statement are we to understand that the accused was having sexual intercourse with the sheep?"

AH: "Er, yes.

Prosecutor: "Mr Harris, what did you do when you observed this shocking spectacle?"

AH: "I said, 'Morning George!'"

expected payoff ( to use statistical lingo. ) Just as in investing- it's best to stay out of anything that has a statistical expectation of a loss.

Remember, lotteries are a zero-sum game, and the government takes a large portion of the pot- that means people have to lose, on average, to pay for the govt's profits.

Steve

You won't get any argument about that from me! This thing is playing out on a number of different levels, kinda' like a muti-track tape recording--each track plays to its own drummer but in harmony with all the others! The question is who's orchestrating the whole thing? Methinks the same people who control the world financial system!

Quess we can liken Bubba to a "mule".
A Mule gets the stuff to market, the cartel makes the dough ( profit ) and the people get hit on the head ( pay the price ) with the rolling pin.

He was supposed to post a miner that has a P/E of about 2.
Maybe gogollded will add lyric.

Touche! A true metaphor for a democrat new or old!

I think it may have something to do with the class action suit in Texas. They were in court on Mon. arguing that they were'nt liable because of confidentiallity. Apparentlly the lead lawyer for the plaintiffs ( Yetter )
was very persuasive in his arguements that they had a responsibility to disclose the Bre-x information & not sit on it for many months knowing full well that there was no AU there & thereby causing many investors to lose their shirts.

I sold my ABX last week & although I've had several good trades with it this year, I won't buy it back. I will probably use Franco Nevada for a trading vehicle. I feel that Munk & his execs have left ABX shareholders very vulnerable to a large settlement in the 100s of millions. Texas is famous for large awards & I don't think G. Bush will be able to save them.

If the US market is tanking, and the $US about to follow suit, what is "safe"?
Either gold is a dead issue, or, ?
Maybe we should pool our cash with the hedge funds to buy Asia for 8 cents on the dollar.

I still think that shorting BKX is a no brainer.

Lastly, There aren't more than a very few "mutual managers" that know anything about classical economics. If they're under fifty, they have never seen currency meltdown. They are buying City and Morgan on the dips.

I'll heed that. Thanks.

CLONE: Do you have extensive data base re: "gold leads currencies by one to three years"?

Once again, I thank you for the good post. That's the same kind of
information I've had for several months, but it is so easy for me to not
pay it a lot of attention while I focus on struggling with silver and dealing with Y2K stuff. Your wake-up call is greatly appreciated. As with
Sharefin, I am finishing painting my house ( near you ) and will officially
put it up for sale by end of this week. While feeling an increasing sense of urgency, I will *not* hold out for top dollar. But where to go from here?
Are you good with a brush? %^ )

RJ: Do you write fiction professionally? If not...why not?

Gandalf the White looked into his Crystal Ball and saw that Wednesday shall be the begining of a great upward move in the XAU. This advance shall continue upward for at least the remainder of this week. Look for at least 75, and an attempt to break out from the base that has been built.

I agree entirely that Bart is the fifth reasonable man.

Is there a forum the equal of Kitco ? None I know of. Here I'll publish til 404 do us part.

That should be 72 ( jetsipsong ) instead of 75 !
GW

mozel
Good! That's the spirit!

mozel
Good! That's the spirit!

Now, if I could only feel as good about the long term XAU

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=5y

For Gold Dancer..
Look you read everything that I know. Ive been
involved with Kebble before on the Dbn-deep
absorption of blyvoor and Buffels .. I had a lot of
buffels .. almost 2 % of the company .. no joke ..
people were calling me on the phone for concurrence.
They were earning a ton .. Then came Kebbel on the
takeover ..
It was impossible to get out and I lost a bunch
Now IF ID HAD FAITH IN KEBBEL .. Id have been OK
and as things turned out I was OK anyway ..
BUT thank you very much I already saw the movie
once and I didnt enjoy it that much.
We can talk pros and cons of this and that .. bottom
line is you are in the hands of Kebbel.. and the market
HERE does not like him .. whether you agree with them
or not .. it may cost you ..
Pity .. Rangold has great assets .. but so do many
RSA companies.
I sold it .. I can always buy it back

For Mozel ..
Great to have you back .. Bart is a stand up guy..
no doubt about it .. he will only kick you off if
you are abusive AND STUPID. He is is only muzzling
nasty cretins .. and thats not infringing upon
freedom of speech .. That's just keeping the sidewalks
tidy.

Dang if I can figure it out. The Aussie market is getting pounded. Gold shares slightly less so. There is something in the wind. My little wannabees are creeping up. Don't know how to say this without bragging--so will just say it--up 12k this week, even though some of the penny dreadfuls are tanking with the market and the gold market overall is down. Someone has come in to scrape out the pig-trough. Don't know why, or care very much--just as long as it continues. Is it possible that an army--well ( maybe a squadron ) of value-seekers is out there buying at these ridiculously low prices?? Time will tell.

I hadn't heard they'd rolled up your welcome mat in Texas. And I don't believe it.

There's no place like Kitco.
Darwinian weeding out in the fashion of a gold camp, as you say.

To Earl or Erle or whoever..
Mine is St Helena ..
June quarter earnings were 1.58 Rand/share after
about a Rand in the march quarter ..
Assuming 2nd quarter is typical gives you 6.32 rand
annually .. stock trading 17 rand for approx p/e
of 2.7 at june quarter rand rate of 5.2 !!!
Superimposing the present rate of 6.25 would
increase annual profits to at least 9 rand
for a p/e of 1.9 ..
Now dont laugh .. St Helena has 9.63 MILLION
shares !!! for a market cap of about 26 MILLION
DOLLARS !!!
Their resources are 15.6 million ounces at a
50,000 rand per kilo basis ( Price NOW 58,000!! )
so 26/15.6 = 1.67 $/oz..
They just increased their semi annual dividend
to 4 rands .. for a yield of 23 %.

Now if you want to talk about no brainers .. tell
me all about it.

I don't seem to fnd a symbol of St Helena. Do you know if it is traded on any US or CDN exchange?

Thanks

mo
Darwinian weeding is easier than cleaning the spittoon.

I recently learned that at the turn of the century one half of the world's oil production was in Baku. The oil fields there were controlled by Rothschild and another party I don't recall. But, together they had successfully shut Rockefeller out of Baku entirely. The Soviets declared the Baku fields depleted after WWII. But, they aren't. There is reportedly as much oil there as in Saudi Arabia. The Azerbajani President recently inked pipeline agreements in London.

If there is no oil/gold relationship anywhere else, one exists in Rothchilds.

I'll certainly take your word for it.

For swp1
Symbol is SGOLY .. ADRs ...
Closed about $2.8 last night ..
About 24000 shares traded

For Skinny..
Put your faith in ABX and ..

You'll become skinnier.

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=%3Ch3%3EMises+and+Liberty

it's looking more and more interesting everyday.

thanks for your tips ( some time ago ) . any more?

I'm also now considering options on penny stocks... hehe... those with expiry dates post-2000.

( the $500 I spent on TKG @$0.005 is currently the best investment I ever made, percentage/time wise...hehe )

Thanks;

I take it it you've finished buying then?

Now I have to decide if I should dump my RANGY...

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980727/international/stories/malaysia_press_freedom_1.html

.. I dont know about weight.

To Skinny ..
ABX has 75 million oz of total resources.. It has
376 million share at say $18.5 per share .. market
cap is 6900 mill $. that makes $99 per oz.

St Helena has 15.6 million oz of resources .. It has
9.6 million shares at say $2.8 per share .. market
cap is 27 million $ ( they were up a bit last night ) ..
that makes 27/9.6 = $1.73 per oz.

Weigh yourself now and we will check your progress.

You are abusive and really stupid. That call you made
where $350 was the bottom last year based on the
cover of a magazine. Wow. What a fantastic intellect.
You won't get kicked off because you'll run away first.
No need to break that pattern. There is little that
separates you from me as far as unwarranted attacks,
but there is a gulf between us stupidity-wise.
Based on your objective criteria, you seem to be
crying out for your own removal.

The sun is shining brightly. mozel, I thank you.
Namaste'

Many of the bigger miners are already up 50-100% from their lows. Acacia, Delta, and Lihir are in this category. This past week Resolute moved up 50% on selling their new nickel mine for a whopping good price. They will be cashed up and feelin' mean as long as no glitches in the sale. Went from $1 to $1.50 in a week. Now retreated to $1.30 and getting tempting again.

As for little wannabees--the Aussies with African holdings are making good moves. If you've read my past posts, you'll know who they are. I suspect that the big S.A. miners are scooping up these bargains at giveaway prices. Adding to assets in the ground at next to nothing. Why spend heaps on exploration when someone else has already found the stuff and the market is giving the shares away!! When Anglogold buys 20% of a little Aussie miner and I can get 'em for half the price--sort of keeps my interest up.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980729/japan_poli_5.html

To all ..
A quote from the Rockwell article on Mises.. The
article should be required reading for ROR ..

"I urge you to see through to the real agenda of the people who would
restore a 30s-style loyalty in the central state. What they want is not just
our allegiance, but our property and businesses to control, our children to
indoctrinate, our culture to distort, our towns and cities to break down, and
our futures to stealfor their own benefit. "

Gogold ..
The street is starting to look a
bit untidy to me ..

Is that a cat howling on your back fence?

Owned some St. Helena many years ago. Do you have a chart site for them? When something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Is there a snake in the woodpile??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980728/reuters_tv_1.html

St. Helena

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=sgoly&d=5y

Why is the P/E here ( 31.25 ) so different from your figures??

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=sgoly&d=5y

EPS=.08
Dividend/S=.55
Good trick.
How do they do that??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980729/more_discl_1.html

For Nick etc..

Yes I think a cat went by here .. left calling card
on the sidewalk.

No idea how they calculate $.08 .. Earnings for last
four quarters in Rand/share are 1.58, 0.94,1.85,0.16.
Source Mining Journal ..

The Dividend number seems weird .. they just announced
2 rands.. after 1.7 Rands ..6 months ago.

With this low a capitalization and cost of resources..
a takeover seems in the cards .. Harmony must be
looking at this little number. in which case you will
get about a 30% premium over whatever price these
earnings take it to.

So little news on the noble metal at the moment. Have read every thing on this line from the usual Right Wing stuff to the sex lives of New Zealand sheep.

Hope the next news is a $US 10 ounce rise in the POG.

Live Long and Prosper.

Has anyone taken the tour of the gold vaults??

Live Long and Prosper.

Overnight silver jumped up to $5.75 on the stocks reduction news then fell back to 5.69-5.70 -the falling stocks number surely accounted for the jump, quick profit taking or more shorting preasure forced the decline.

New York will be shaky given the small retreat in gold and platinum as a back drop. A one day million oz increase in comex stocks will drop silver through its $5.50 floor.

I think you are right the buying preasure just has not materialized. Selling preasure seems to have no problem mustering itself though.

Think if this were oil. If world production were flat, demand in excess of supply and NY inventories were declining 1 or 2% a day you'd have a national crisis, a world crisis and prices of oil and oil related stocks on the most active and biggest percentage gain list - not so, now, for silver and SSC.

That tells me something - big players, smart money don't believe this falling stockpile story or the deficit numbers - at least enough to put very much money here. Otherwise, we are left to believe that the shorts who have leased silver to depress the markets are suicidally increasing their lease position to force the market down in the hopes of
shaking out the longs and finally being able to cover their shorts. If world above ground vaulted stocks are 400 million oz this could only go on so long and it has been for a decade.

My better sense tells me this big lease story is a myth, sure there is some but not more than 100 million oz, but the bigger story is that the size of vaulted silver is much bigger than anybody knows and the big players are not interested in this secretive market that
will most likely be overcome by a contraction in demand as world deflation and depression takes hold.

If silver can't close above $5.70 and thus up on the week come Friday - I'll conclude
$4.85 silver will be seen before $6.

Very well put. Of course the overnighters sre kind of a strange breed. Spot looks like it moved up to and hung around 5.72 or so during Hong Kong hours and moved down in a fairly normal manner to about 5.67 on the London open.

If the overnight numbers were paying any attention to the COMEX reduction, though it shouldn't have been moving in a fairly normal manner.

Silver also should have been up a little more than it was at the NY close given golds amount of rise even for normal.

Something isn't tracking here. I guess there could be a lot of producer hedging, but I don't think so. If there isn't some renewed interest in the NY am, I think it would be prudent to lighten up on silver positions till we see more direction.

Oh, one more thing. I notice this morning gold is down about 70 but silver is not, so all is not lost yet, eh?

Strange you should mention Ted. I really miss him. My understanding is that he was moving from Canada to the USA and that toward fall he would be back on line with us on Kitco. I was hoping that he might make contact before then but I guess he is not as addicted to the site as I thought he was. Hopefully we will hear from him in the near future.

Equity future indexes all showing green this morning. I guess they expect a bounce.

Dollar up, yen down.

Metals all showing red except one little green spot.....silver.

Swan Island Maine to build a new "place"...some here have reportedly spoken with him and I thought that maybe you were in contact. Miss him too...Neat character ( to say the least ) . Maybe he is lurking...

go silver...

I ( like other Kitco citizens ) have noticed the recent 15% fall in COMEX stocks of Silver to around 76 million ounces. The missing piece in the equation in recycled silver.
Last February, most coin dealers were getting swamped with bags of silver coming out of the woodwork and being sent to refiners. The spread between the price of $1000.00 face bags and the spot price was high, because of the backup at the refineries. All this refined silver appears to have been absorbed by the market without increasing COMEX stocks over the last several months.
The price of 90% bags is now at par or higher to their silver content ( approx 715 ounces per $1000.00 ) . What this means is that these bags are NOT flowing to refiners. Actually, dealers are reporting that they are unable to get sufficient coin bags to satisfy demand. Remember, the # of bags is finite, and shrinking every year as they are melted.

John, you refered to CAM as a 30% shareholder in Randgold. I am not familiar with them. The only CAM that I know is Consolidated African Mining on the Vancouver exchange. Who are these guys? Thanks for being our ears in South Africa.

Here is the Registered/Elligible breakdown from yesterday - even more silver from elligible stocks than at first glance, because of a transfer into the registered stock category!

Gold:

810,398 Registered
271,583 Elligible ( + 10,045 )
1,081,981 Total ( +10,045 )

Silver

39,307,910 Registered ( + 112,743 )
38,691,650 Elligible ( - 1,775,560 )
77,999,650 Total ( -1,662,817 )

The markets seem to me to be composed of three types. The chartists, the fundamentalists, and the cannon fodder.

The chartists respond to what is happening and what has happened in the immediate past. They are trend followers, not trend setters. True, they are more sophisticated than the cannon fodder. They don't buy "up" just becuase it's going up. They've seen fake rallys before, and they know how to use a stop.

The fundamentalists make the turning points. They look ahead, sometimes dimly, but they know how to buy low before anyone has seen high coming yet, and they know how to sell high before anyone else has heard the train coming.

The cannon fodder doesn't have a clue. They buy cause their freinds did or they saw something on Geraldo.

An intersting mix.

I can't picture Ted as a lurker. He is not satisfied with looking on. He is on top the old bull thrashing and bucking. Perhaps in the near future we will be inspired by his weather reports and spot prices.

You say thatin February the coin dealers were swamped with bags of silver coins yet they were at a substantial premium to their spot silver content. I would think it to be the other way around. With supply of bags building up with dealiers why were they paying a premium??

Maybe producers selling to the market?

don't. If the short overhang is as large as the 'myth' says it is
then, the holders of these short positions have nothing to lose if
they continue to short. They can not cover, and you can only go
bankrupt once. These guys will be keeping the price down and hence
accelerating the consumption of silver stockpiles. The question is,
will the stockpiles reach zero before the coming depression. The
people holding the short positions are gambling that world consumption
collapses before they have to cover.

But, COMEX may be the largest visible world stockpile of silver.
I heard that the American Strategic Stockpile has been largely
depleted already, and I know of no large visible stockpiles in
Europe.

Someone posted on Kitco last week that although eligible stocks on
COMEX are in the range of 40 million oz, 25 million of these may
already be ineligible, or attached in some way. If yesterday's
drawdown is typical, we may have only 10 business days of available
silver stockpiles at COMEX. It looks like August will make or break
the great silver boom.

With leasing, we do not have a 'market' in the classical sense.
With leasing, prices can theoretically drop to near zero and
stockpiles reach zero, without supply and demand fundamentals
kicking the price upstairs.

With leasing, no investor should take long positions in metals.
you just wait for 10 or 20 years, watch stockpiles until they
come close to zero, and then take a position just before the
blowoff. What's wrong with this picture? Ten or twenty years
is two to four business cycles and two to four recessions.
The recessions refill the stockpiles and the longs end up
waiting again......perhaps forever. The only thing that has
allowed this silver market to get so close to blowoff, is the
prolonged present business cycle. IMHO

Fall back in the yen doing its thing on Silver and gold - both are now down. Gold off $1.20 and silver is off 1/2 cent. So much for the short squeeze

The markets must see this new finace minister as just a continuation of the same old club's control over the Japanese econmy.

What was all the noise about. This new finance minister has had the job before but had to resign due to scandle.

Give me a break - the yen will go further down, the world will fall in to a recession or depression and metal prices will sink with them.

Should have sold what I have left in the metal stocks and gone short yesterday.

The only hope is weakness in the dollar - someday and a climatic bottom at some point, then a protracted base building. The only wild card is a breakdown in the central banks control forcing a return to precious metals as backing to currency. But that isn't going to happen until total crisis as unfolded and the dollar discreditied. Gold backing will only limit the governments' ability to inflate out of the forth coming economic hole, putting that rescuing possibility further out of the picture.

Boys and girls its a BEAR.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5342389

Yes, I agree with you. I am not as sick to my stomach as when I last contacted you. Being the bull of bulls for so many months has been exasperating. Not right yet, but not wrong either. I found out Friday that a European central bank is still banging away. That is not rumor. It is fact. So it is frustrating. Until they are done, which could be any day or week, gold is a come si come sa ( sp.? ) . I will say this, broken record that I am, when they are done the price of gold will lift and surprise most everyone because very few will understand that an incredible depressant ( pre EMU selling ( huge supply ) is gone. And if I am right, that is why gold will shoot way up for no reason at all.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, we wait and anticipate.

Durban Roodepoort Deep improved profits by more than 300% over the previous quarter. See detail at http://www.drd.co.za/. The full quarterly report will be posted shortly.

The Comex is the largest visable stockpile of silver - just my point - what we don't see in hidden stocks is what is providing the security for the shorts and those leasing silver and supplying it to the market.

The comex is just the tip of the iceberg. Still leasing can not go on forever. That which is borrow and sold for usage is gone. When all is gonethe lease rate will soar as it hasn't seems to me to say there's plenty out there or alot of stupid big players leasing out their silver for virtually nothing. That doesn't add up - regardless of the Comex changes there is plenty of silver to hold over the shorts until demand contracts as the recession spreads.

That seems to be what the market is saying load and clear.

rhody

A recession may not refill the coffers with silver, as commonly believed.

Accurate numbers are difficult to get, but from various sources I have seen it stated that 70 to 85 percent of new silver supply is from base and gold metal mining operations. A collapse of these mining operations would cut off a huge portion of the silver supply. The question becomes then, a matter of whether the relatively inelastic demand for silver drops faster than the supply, which is disappearing.

Secondly - at present there is essentially NO monetary demand for silver, and essentially NO investment demand for silver from the general public ( hoarding, numismatics etc. ) The re-appearance of monetary demand, especially in Islamic countries, may be in its infancy - with a lot of room to grow. Y2K, as frequently noted here, may exponentially increase the hoarding and numismatic demand of silver from the public. I think this one is a slam-dunk by the middle and 3rd quarters of next year.

jims

You wouldn't consider Soros and Buffet as big-money people?

Perhaps there is another answer to your quandry about the lack of big-money interest in the silver drawdown.

( 1 ) They already have their positions, or ( 2 ) they learned from the Bunker Hunt experience, and from the treatened ( phoney ) litigation case earlier this year for alleged market manipulation, -- they only buy physical silver, not futures, and then only when the price is low or falling, Thus they allow the shorts to manipulate the price lower, before they buy.

Remember that silver from COMEX is the LAST to dissapear - as it has lesser purity requirements than does London.

one month lease rates of over 3.5% make the classical silver carry
practice uneconomic. So why continue to short? Either there are
large invisible stockpiles, or the present holders of the 'mythical'
short overhang are into the desperation end game of financial
zombies.

International Crude Oil Consultant, James Williams shares his expert
opinion about BLACK GOLD.

It is no surprise international drilling is falling off. However, this statistic does NOT tell the whole story. Whereas ONSHORE international drilling continues to decline, OFFSHORE international drilling has indeed been rising. Expert Williams does an excellent job of explaining the several factors which cause the differences between growth rates in U.S. and international drilling activity:

He opines that the most influencing factor determining grow rate disparities in International oil exploration rates is a function of each country's governmental Bureaucracy. Williams asserts "Whether onshore or offshore, exploration internationally is generally more dependent on governmental decisions than is the case in the United States. In essence individual political goals forge crude oil policies.

Therefore, Williams feels "Country risk studies should always be an integral part of a particular company analysis, when its sales are spread over a few countries."

Williams full report located at:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/crude_oil/williams072798.html
( delete letters "en" )

Testament to the disparities in Domestic vs International drilling rates is the Prices trend changes in the Oil Stock Indexes. You may view long-term Crude Oil Stock Trends of Oil - International Index, Oil - Domestic Producers Index, Oil - Services Index, Toronto Stock Exchange Oil & Gas Index and the all famous Gas and Oil Index ( XOI ) at the following URL.

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/crude_oil.html

Are there any manufacturing jewelers on this forum?If so, please contact me at cdevoto@abts.net Thanx

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980729/bt_economi_1.html

Yes I consider Soros and WB to be big money, obviously. I think Soros bought a wanabee silver mine. Four WBs or the equivalent would take off all stocks, hidden and at Comex by my estimates. You are right there is no investment demand for silver. Maybe by October if silver is able to hold and equites decline that will be reversed. But as earlier posted there is no premium for coins over spot, instead plenty of over head supply apparently.

I don't know why I care what happens to silver - let the price go down, when it get to $2.25 I'll get a second chance to buy what I should have held on to in 1973 and sold six years later. That ought to be in about 2006, just in time for a comfortable retirement.

Thanks all for your feed back. The test of ideas is health.

Good Morning All!!!

Just a little point of information. Silver has been in an uptrend now for a few years. Silver bottomed a while back at the mid-$3 area. We are in a cyclical long term uptrend as we speak.

S. Kaplan points out that commercial commitments in silver are decidedly bearish. It is one indicator that is dangerous to fight against. In the short term we could see a "correction" ( favorite word on Wall Street these days ) .

Of course, commercial commitments in gold are decidedly bullish and have been for some time. When will we see the rally?

IMHO, it is becoming more and more difficult to use fundamental analysis to predict the short term swings in the POG or POS. Nevertheless, I am 100% convinced that we are on the verge of a dramatic move up. If will be easy to determine that it is the "big one." It will be accompanied with equally dramatic downturns in the dollar and the stock market.

Good Morning All!!!

Just a little point of information. Silver has been in an uptrend now for a few years. Silver bottomed a while back at the mid-$3 area. We are in a cyclical long term uptrend as we speak.

S. Kaplan points out that commercial commitments in silver are decidedly bearish. It is one indicator that is dangerous to fight against. In the short term we could see a "correction" ( favorite word on Wall Street these days ) .

Of course, commercial commitments in gold are decidedly bullish and have been for some time. When will we see the rally?

IMHO, it is becoming more and more difficult to use fundamental analysis to predict the short term swings in the POG or POS. Nevertheless, I am 100% convinced that we are on the verge of a dramatic move up. If will be easy to determine that it is the "big one." It will be accompanied with equally dramatic downturns in the dollar and the stock market.

eligible silver stocks here versus the UK. Fine silver is fine silver no matter how you slice it and although the Comex has decided to not use some particular refiners in the future, the lion's share of what's on the floor right now is the right stuff. I would also guess that in such scrutinized times as these, their current figures don't reflect suspect bars. Remember that in 1975 or 76 we initiated a reform to the stamp act of 1847 ( ? ) requiring the deleation of the 1/2 karat variance allowed up to that time and putting US refiners on notice that the jig was up; believe me when I say our refiners are among best in the world.


badger

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980729/japan_refl_1.html

Gentlemen/Ladies: Your opinion and pro/con's on NEM please. Trading at $21-$22, it is below the January lows. Will it play catch up if/when we get our rally?? I am "making a list" and want to check it twice. Kinross KGC also looks like a potential buy under $3. What say you, anyone???

post it here, some ( read that a lot ) of off subject or loosely related material is tolerated here...

badger

if we go into recession-depression. Re: Y2K effects on demand, I would
rather rely on past patterns than speculate on a Y2K inspired
reintroduction of silver as coinage.

Your point on W.B.'s purchase of silver is well taken. We can assume
he searched out the true supply situation before taking his position
in silver at prices just slightly below the present levels. I think
we can be assured that there are no invisible silver stockpiles apart
from family silverware, and it's going to take huge increases in
silver spot to bring that out on the market.

WB is a long term investor, not a speculator. He does not seem to
fear the coming depression as I can not believe that he took delivery
of 129 million oz and shipped the metal out of the USA, just to
hold on to it for less than a year. I think he fears the US
government under FEMA could seize assets in the coming debacle.

So we are back to the 'myth'. The short overhang is real. There are
no invisible stockpiles, and the shorts are financial zombies.

Sharing ideas, opinions, and information is what makes this place so great and why we all love to be here.....so long as it remains civil. ( Thanks Bart )

A Japanese group bought a big chunk of CLN-VSE. Maybe they are scrounging around downunder?? Charlie

And BTW I heard from a friend of Teds that he will not post till he gets done working on his house on Swain Island.
An Amish woman was driving her buggy one day when she was pulled over by the an officer of the law, a metropolitain transplant who did not yet understand rural ways.
Mrs Stolzfus, you have a broken reflector on back of your buggy, now I shant give you a ticket today, but you must have your husband fix that reflector when you get home.
The Amish lady nodded.
Furthermore Mrs. Stolzfus, I see that one of the reins is looped around the horses testicles. This is cruelty to animals, you must have your husband fix that harness for sure!
The Amish lady nodded again but with a confused look.
Upon arriving home when her husband came in from the field she greeted him with the news.
Jonas Stozfus, I vas schtopped by a policeman und he said ve must get da reflector fixed on da buggy or he vill gif us a ticket.
To which Jonas replied, He vill gif us a ticket for a reflector! Vas der nuzzing else der matter now?
Ya, der vas anudder ting Mrs. Stozfus replied,
He said der vas someting wrong vith the emergency brake....

I think I picked up this purity info from D.A. - who said that COMEX purity requirements were 99.99% vs 99.999% in London, so that much of the COMEX silver must be re-refined before shipping to London. For consumers requiring the highest purity silver, this means that the last place they go to make purchases is COMEX.

I have seen nothing else to substantiate this, but he has always been pretty good at revealing details of the COMEX operations not available elsewhere.

Reposting from yesterday . . .
_____

Date: Tue Jul 28 1998 12:04
D.A. ( and.on.another.note ) ID#7568:
Gollum:

Not wishing to disturb your tranquility I offer the following merely as an observation. Two weeks
ago Aron and Co. were strong sellers of the 550 and 575 calls which expire tomorrow morning.
Subsequently they purchased many of the 565's which expire two weeks from this Friday.

The inability of silver to achieve altitude may be associated with this tether. At 9.30 AM tommorrow,
the rope will be cut. Perhaps then we shall fly once more. . . .
_____

Note at what figure this morning's price is working toward.

Where do I get some of the juice. They have been making money for almost two decades and I notice again this morning dispite the fall in stocks and probably this week and next till perhaps late October.

If falling stocks won't turn this market what on the horizon will.?? The zombies are in control.....

Badger:

Many commercial users will not accept many of the brands of silver which reside at the Comex. At the moment, there are very, very, few, if any, lots which are composed entirely of London deliverable silver. Most lots have at least a few bars of London 'ineligable' stuff.

London silver continues to, and has for many years, traded at a premium to the Comex. Part of this is due to the fact that there is much silver mining in North America and very little in Europe. Part is due to the difference in quality.

To my mind, the key fact in this market is that when Buffett purchased his 130 million ounces two things happened. The first is that the London premium rose so high as to make the arbitrage of removing silver from Comex, refining it, and then shipping it to London profitable. The second is that Comex warehouse stocks declined precipitously. If there were lots of silver lying around Europe as some have opined, why would anyone have gone to the expense of removing, refining and shipping it from New York to London, when they could have strolled down to the neighborhood warehouse and picked up a load?

No one can argue with the idea that there is a lot of silver out there in the form of jewelry, silverware, etc. that could be brought to market. The world will not run out of silver. The question is, and remains, what price will it take to get this stuff to market. On the first rally, there was a lot of supply in the form of small bars and coins. Estimates are between 20 and 40 million ounces. If this is so then it covered maybe 2 to 4 months deficit in the market. This would mean that we are now approaching the same level of tightness as was in the market during the first run. This time however, it will take higher prices to release another similar load into the market.

I am surprised but heartened that there are so many at a gold discussion group that are bearish on silver. With balanced opinion here, what do you think the general feeling toward PM's is over at the Amazon.com chat group?

One of the good speculative indicators of silver is SSC. The fact that it has gone down in the face of a 60 cent rally in silver is great. The public has no appetite. There is much room to run.

Is now ready to resume....

Keep your eye on the bouncing ball.

other day re webtv. I've been thinking about getting one for home but had heard different stories about them. Thanks.

One of the reasons SSC is scratching along its lows may be the fact it can't make money and will have to raise about 50% of the company's worth to get its Argentine operation in motion and their average price of production below the current spot price. Currently their revenues to price ratio is in the stratospher by any comparative measure - around 10::1. I'd say there are still believers in that security or insecurity.

For only the price of an ounce of gold ( which is also very cheap, yes? ) , you will get a great deal of pleasre. Do it.

Standard disclaimers apply. ( ;^ ) )

the market, and will until available supplies become effectively zero.
Whether "zero" is at zero eligible on COMEX or at 25 million oz eligible
remains to be seen. If the zombies are in control, even lease rates
at 100% become ineffective in shutting off the supply of selling.
A zombie sells knowing he is bankrupt.

Leasing metals eventually kills markets, and when a market is dead,
production also dies. In a totally artificial market, with a
downward bias, why would anybody in their right mind invest in
mining properties? Derivatives in their varied forms have the
capacity to undermine the economic basis of the entire world.
Perhaps they already have.

It's official: All ( leading ) momentum indicators have now oscillated into positive territory. The 30-day, which just kicked in this morning, has risen from a lower low than we have seen in years ( maybe decade[s], but my charts don't go back that far ) . Per the charts, the question is not whether silver will rise, the question is how far and how fast. Per history, the quicker the rise, the less -- that is, 40 cents today; 70 cents by Friday or Monday; or a buck ( conservatively ) by the middle of next week. There is one other ( slimmer ) chance silver will rise "only" 45 cents over the next week. If that plays out, then look for the 70-cent rise about two weeks later.

This puppy's gonna do it.

What gets me is the depth from which the 30-day indicator is rising. This basketball has been submerged really deep for awhile now. Compare this with the fact commercials are short 3:1 to long, coupled with the fact that commercials are almost ALWAYS right, then look to rising lease rates and we realize we just may be in one of those very rare situations where the commercials are wrong. This pugnacious little silver just may go to $10. Just may kick off the overall PM resurrection we've been looking for. ( Got another interesting chart tracking the three metals -- gold, plat, silver -- as if a single metal. Big things churning there too, but silver's the leading now. If silver plays like it looks like it can, then we have little more time to wait for the prize, for gold. But that's another day. )

Personally, I wouldn't mind a slightly down day today -- a bumper indicator for the larger spike up next week, and a chance to fill that little gap at 558.

Spot has jumped to 5.700 in the face of gold down, but September silver has declined to 5.660. How can this be?

International observer sees DOOM & GLOOM.

The public's blas attitude vis--vis the looming Y2K problem will wreak havoc on the business world, and may well cause considerable pain to the day to life as we now enjoy it.

Mr. Osborne observes "Security and its weakest link are becoming more evident to those who take seriously the world's year 2000 problems."

He feels a critical date is forthcoming next month: "GLOBAL Y2K ACTION DAY is August 19th 1998."

Russia, says he, may be the explosive catalyst setting off a chain-reaction.

"Russia has only just become aware of the Y2K problem and its
possible consequences ( I use aware in its simplest meaning ) and
does not have the resources or maybe even the will to tackle the
issue. The greatest concern has to be Russia's and its former
satellite countries, aging nuclear power stations, rotting nuclear
submarines and weapons and the structure of its computer
systems."

One may not agree with his grim warnings, but ignore them at your OWN peril.

Incidentally, we have been informed that some mid-West Long-Storage Food
Distributors have three months inventory on BACK-ORDER. However, THESE ARE UNCONFIRMED reports. We have also seen Internet comments that
GOLD COIN SALES ARE SOARING OF LATE.

Delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before calling up the site on the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/osborne072998.html

Backwardation?

Euro Precious Metals
Review

Gold, silver await option expiry

07/29/98 08:36 ET






London--July 29--Gold and silver activity was quiet this morning as
prices drifted ahead of over-the-counter option expiry at 0930 ET.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium gave up much of their overnight gains
as Asian short-covering by TOCOM speculators dried up and fund sellers of
platinum emerged.

GOLD
Spot gold traded at around $290.50-290.90 here, off a high of $291.90.
The market was still "yen-watching" after Tuesday's gains in line with
a weakening of the US dollar.
Overnight the dollar fell sharply but gold stalled near $292, and a
weakening of the yen against the US dollar in late morning trade exerted a
softer tone here.
In the news, Japan's 78-year old former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa
today agreed to take the position of finance minister.
One dealer said European gold trade had been dominated by a battle
between 2 large houses but would likely give way to currency influences
again this afternoon.
He suggested support at the July 13 low of $288.75 may come under
pressure this afternoon, a breach of which could see gold fall a further
$2. But ongoing range trade between $289.50-295.00 was thought most likely
in the near-term.
OTC gold open interest was said to be greatest at the $290-strike but
was modest overall, and dealers were not expecting any option-related
fireworks.
The majority of players were still more interested in gold puts than
calls. However, a large US fund speculator which recently bought around
5,000 lots of COMEX silver was said to have purchased 400,000-500,000
ounces worth of July COMEX gold calls at the $340-strike this week
.11075 ) .

SILVER
Silver eased to $5.65-5.68 after failing to move through a high of
$5.72. Accompanying the fall was a mild easing of nearby tightness which
saw the 1-month indicative lease rate fall to around 3.1%, compared with
3.9% Tuesday.
Silver option open interest was greatest at calls at the $5.75-strike
price, which were purchased by US investors last month.
Options traders felt there was a chance prices could be pushed
above the $5.75-mark ahead of expiry, thereby seeing the calls there expire
in-the-money. Sources also felt silver had a chance for gains Friday, the
last day in July, if fund longs "window dress" to achieve a firm monthly
close.
COMEX silver stocks were reported down 1.663 million ounces to a total
78 million Tuesday--the lowest level for over 16 years.
"While physical demand has been generally poor this year, the market is
still likely to suffer from a supply deficit, which means that silver is
vulnerable to a squeeze at present," said a report from analysts at GNI
Research.
But in the meantime, the weaker yen was creating immediate pressure.

Spot precious metals prices are in US dollars per ounce:
London 1200 GMT Tokyo 0630 GMT Late New York
Gold ( KRCGL ) 290.50-290.90 291.75-292.25 291.50-292.00
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.65-5.68 5.71-5.73 5.66-5.69
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 378.00-380.00 383.00-385.00 378.50-380.50
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 303.00-313.00 309.00-319.00 300.00-310.00

-- Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News

ring to it!

Don't want to see backwardation. Not good for great gollum silver rally.
GGSR want see bbbiiiiggg contango.

You say: "My better sense tells me this big lease story is a myth" Your better sense, eh? Try and walk through the _logic_. You are an industrial silver consumer. You need working material ( silver. ) Why go to the bank to borrow $US at 7% when you can borrow the metal at 2%? It only makes sense to borrow the metal and that's what has been happening. I don't want to get into a my source/your source game but my Friendly Dealer ( who works at a firm you would recognize ) deals with Mr. Kodak. He, of course, does not disclose individual positions and trades, but he does confirm that the silver carry is alive and expanding. It's his business. That's how he makes his money.

You say: "but the bigger story is that the size of vaulted silver is much bigger than anybody knows" Try logic again. The ( puny ) purchase of 130 mil ozs increased lease rates 15 fold. How could this have possibly happened if there were "tons of vaulted silver"? Imagine selling 800 mil of t-bonds and seeing the yields go from 3% to 75% ( !? ) . But that's what happened in the silver market. What does this tell you? THERE'S NO LIQUIDITY OUT THERE!

cheers,

Sam__A.

Yep, Dow is developing a humped shoulder look again. I predict that by closing it is will be standing on its head--my guess is down 78.20. I look for gold to shake of its early down $1.00 look and finish unchanged for the day. When the day is over you will probably understand why I practice law rather than deal in prognostications of the market.

What is *contango*?

Backwardation = High lease rates = Physical scarcity. In particular, backwardation implies a lease rate that is greater than the current money market rates. This is Good for the Great Gollum Silver Rally.

cheers,

Sam__A.

This is the forward premium on future contracts. Its is roughly equal to the money market rate minus the lease rate.

Oh. In that case, go backwardation!

Spot's back down to 5.66 too much effort swimming against the yen.

Appreciate your explanation. For the dense among us -- i.e. moi -- could you further explain? An example perhaps? Thank you.

That's more like it. Like i said, the BOUNCING ball.

This whole yen thing is starting to get old. If they don't stop doing that, I'm going to go tell Mr. Rubin.

THE GREAT DOW DEBACLE CONTINUES! As I said yesterday, the FOREIGN MONEY will now FORSAKE THE DOLLAR AND THE DOW and LOOK FOR SAFETY ELSEWHERE!

As Matt Drudge reported last night, Ken Starr has a "mountain of evidence" against BC and a PICTURE that will leave the world asking, "Why didn't we know?" The only question left to answer now is will Starr get his man BEFORE the Fall elections or AFTER! In any event, BC is now a LAME DUCK PRESIDENT!

Gee, now the spot's going down, but the futures going up. I'm going to go take a nap.

It is only fitting that Clinton's character issues will be the catalyst for the end of this bull market. Character wasn't supposed to matter, only the economy is important. Now his character is dragging down the whole country. What a fitting legacy for the most worthless person to ever set foot in the white house.

Monex spot silver @ 560. If we can scoop up that gap at 558 then our craft will be ready -- loaded, fueled, last boarding call.

For Mike Stewart .
Same company .. It's another kebble vehicle.
it owns some dbn deep ..some randgold some weston ( an
aussie investment company holding goldfields Laverton,
and platgold ) and some JCI .. It also owns consolidated
bullion .. a gold marketing company.. CAM was only
listed in August 1997.. It was some some of a thing
that would enable Kebble and Mzi Khumalo to control
JCI.

Jims: In tresponse to your 750 posting, silver $1000.00 bags were selling at about a 10-15% discount in February, hence my comment on their spread. They are now selling at a premium to their underlying silver content. Thus few bags are flowing to refiners. Additionally, most smaller dealers sold out their accumulated silver ( coins, scrap, bars ) back in Jan-Mar timeframe. There is very little left in stores.

In answer to the question about the size of the strategic stockpile it has been used for the last 13 years for the U.S. coinage program ( commemoratives, and the Silver Eagle bullion program ) . Currently there is under 50 million ounces left of the original 126 million.

The gold forward rate is equal to the money market rate minus the gold lease rate. Why? Well, suppose this were not the case, suppose the forward were flat. What would My Friendly Dealer do? He would borrow gold at 1.5%, sell it spot and bank the proceeds at 5.5%. He would then hedge this position by buying forward. If forward price = spot price, he could lock-in a fully secured 4% with no money down. Arbitrage prevents this from happening, of course, and that's why there is usually a forward premium.

The absence of a forward premium, i.e. when the market is in backwardation, usually means the lease rate has exceeded the money market rate.

The big banks go on and on about how gold is just another _commodity_. But this is not how the their trading rooms see it. Their trading rooms treat gold as just another _currency_; they treat gold as money. Which of course it is.

Cheers,

Sam__A.

Hmm, how many days can the PPT keep dumping tens of billions of dollars into the DOW supporting their bloated, flaccid balloon of a market?

Imagine, PPT pumping the magic make-believe dollar-numbers in, while the mutual funds & big brokers are selling it out -- how the PPT must glare at their erstwhile allies!

Meanwhile, what becomes of all those magic number-dollars that are begining to be withdrawn from the market? Where are they going? There must be NO SAFE HAVEN IN THE PRECIOUS METALS! is the shrill shriek of the FedGov to the PPT!

They almost lost it in the 1979-1980 run up of gold to $800/oz and silver to $50/oz. If it happens again, they know they WILL loose it -- "it" being CONTROL of the peoples of the world by means of magic make-believe money.

Do not doubt that the PPT will implement a back-up plan:

Plan #1: Manipulate the precious metals markets so as to make them appear to be a looser investment.

Plan #2: Destroy the precious metals industry outright through driving the price down and the mines out of business.

Plean #3: Tar gold with associations of Nazi war crimes by dragging out the Swiss, conveniently after a lapse of 50 years. ( say noting about the rape of the American Indian )

Plan#4: Shut mines down by environmental restrictions. ( say nothing about coal mining )

now for the back up plans... Ok, our previous plans are falling apart, so

Plan #5: Nationalize gold mines.

Plan #6: Confiscate gold; Justice Department issues "Turn in your neigbhor gold horder" edict with 10% of confiscated value to squealer.

Plan #7: Outlaw the selling, barter or transaction of gold and silver -- institute the National Electronic Funds Purchase Act. It is against the law to sell or exchange material with use of this system.

Plan #8: Clinton decrys gold-bugs and orders their arrest in order to "protect the children"

Plan #9: ...


Spud

WHAT A COUNTRY! : ) Think how much gold and silver 1/4 Billion could buy?
But alas, the winner will probably spend it all on a new car, a new home,
a gambling junket to Las Vegas, and MORE LOTTERY TICKETS! Gott im Himmel!

The gap at 558 has been filled.

Excellent explanation. That's a keeper. Thank you.

I will 'dump' this years IRA into Disney stock ( TODAY ) . It is currently at some good support and is looking real tasty ( I can buy approx. 56 shares w/ my 2 G's ) . I will sell when it doubles.........perhaps next year sometime ( ? ) ...... ( $$$ ) . So, AGULP to both of ya! Yahooooooo!! ( not yahoo stock........ )
I have been VERY tempted to buy some gold stocks.......but...............that feeling passed...............kinda like gas.
JD - perhaps a little DD or Harmony.......??? When can I expect to double my duckies?? TIA
away...I'm goin' to DISNEYLAND!!!!!


go gold...

All: He just wants to see the department of Justice memos addressing the need for an independent counsel on the Campaigngate evidence. Janet Reno will eventually have to back down, or find another job. She has been protecting her boss - WJC -- long enough.
http://allpolitics.com/1998/07/28/reno.subpoena/

Tense moment for silverbugs. No time to panic. Panic at 549 -- there, all ( new ) T.A. flies out the window and we're back to lease market control. But the dip today, if it holds, augers BIG Great Gollum Silver Rally. Remain detatched. Count the ants in your hair.

http://www.jci.co.za/HomePage.htm

http://www.transcontinental.com.au/index.html

and the COMEX stocks will disappear overnight!

That's BILLION says Spuds. I know I can't dump Ten billion Spuders but with my two thou and his two thou and her two thou.......and so on.......and so on..............etc........we can get the job done. You should 'contribute' your 'share' NOW ;-^ )
away........before I pass out from too much delight
uyernotseller.......uh huh.


powerball.....schmowerball................what a racket......... ( whoa! )

RJ, are your "mixed feelings" about the gold market due top a change in Monex's customers? Instead of buying gold to trade it, are they now buying gold to take delivery? At the margin.

Gold's fundamentals are currently the same as they have been, yes?

Or, has a very persuasive client talked to you about why he is buying gold?

sam

Good explanation - thanx! Note that the trade involves selling the leased silver - this is what Ted Butler has been saying in his works - if it is leased, it is GONE from the marketplace. When ( if ) the leased silver is called back, that is when the 'kaboom' will be heard.

The PPT is simply one more pork barrel vehicle for BC and RR to bail out their Wall Street cronies while sticking the bill to the US taxpayer! Simply one more way to redistribute all the wealth to the people who REALLY matter--the paper-hawkers at Goldman Sucks, Lynch Merrill and all the major money-center banks, like Citicorrupt, J. Morgan P. and Cheiss!
What a system!

Relatively light volume so far today.

But the T-Bond is gettin' ready to blast through support at 5.75! Can just see all them bond traders inchin' their way to the exits! FUEGO! WHOOOOOOOOOSH!

IF YEN KEEPS FALLING AGAINST THE ALMIGHTY BUCK! Wouldn't THAT upset the PPT? Hey Bill y Bob?

"Note that the trade involves selling the leased silver." Yes! An oz leased is an oz sold spot is an oz short. Always and forever. You bears out there, _think_ about this. In order for the PM markets to remain artificially depressed, this leased metal must continue to hit the floor. As soon as it stops, as SilverBaraon points out -- kaboom.

cheers all ( must get some real work done. )

Sam__A.

Sam_A: Thanks for your clear summary of how silver and gold loans work, and why they are so tempting relative to bank loans. Must make the big traders and the Central Banks mouths water that they are sitting on such cheap money. Now selling forward, and the dollar/precious metals carry must predate the Black-Scholes options revolution. Options have presumably just made it possible to use less precious metals to achieve the same goal.
And -- someone posted a statement from AG the the CB's actively push the price of gold down if it goes up too fast. We knew this -- but it was never actually in print. The gold market is much thinner than the US dollar market, so it must be tempting to use gold to control the price of the dollar.
The part I still have trouble with is just how much extra leverage the CB's get by using derivatives in keep the price of precious metals down. We all know that it cannot last forever, and the eventually the downtrend will reverse.
One other item about silver. As I recall ( IMHO ) silver is more dependent upon production than gold, because there are relatively less above ground stores. Also silver production is inelastic, as it is usually a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc and gold production. Hence, during recessionary times ( world wide ) silver production tends to go down, and the price up. Thus, there is another reason silver should go up --- silver production has presumably dropped. Now, if SEAsia, or Europe's economies recover in a big way, silver production will go up again. Gets complicated when you realize that there will be buyers for silver only when they have enough money to buy it. Anyone know what is happening in India these days?

Well, I'm back from my nap. Now to see what's going on.

OH MY GAWD! What have you guys been doing? Silver's down, gold's down, and the BOJ is getting out of treasuries. Frown.

I'm going to have to go down stairs and readjust some levers....

times ( world wide ) silver production tends to go down and the price up."
I understand that this is because of the link between silver and
other metal production from polymetallic mines. But if this is
true, why did silver prices tank, during the Great Depression?

Gollum: Do you know where those levers are that sell or lease gold when ever the US dollar goes down? The temptation must be very strong, given that no one -- including the FED has enough money to control the US dollar directly.
How about jamming those gold sale/lease levers? You would be doing the FED a favor -- they would have to come to grips with their 'little problem' ( borrowing from Monty Python ) before it becomes a bigger problem. The FED needs to wean themselves off their gold sales/lease addiction. Wonder what the BIS is saying about all of this.
Personally, I would rather have a relatively slow gold rally, rather than the catastrophic one we may be moving to.

Here's something interesting:

Look at this-
http://www.kitco.ca/gold.graph.html

Now, look at this-
http://www.kitco.ca/silver.graph.html

Think about what silver was ( almost exclusively ) used for in the early 20th century.....MONEY.....with very little inelastic demand requirements. Now it is just opposite of that - high inelastic demand and ZERO use as MONEY.

GC: Don't look now but it looks like Aug Gold is doing the same thing at 290.

All: There looks to be good news and bad news. The bad news is gold does look like it's falling through 290 support and is forming what Preacher would call an outside reversal day, whereby it rose to high pas yesterdays high and is now down below yesterdays low. If it's on high volume, it's significant.

The good news is that it's been trading in a large triangle since the end of May. Usually a triangle ( especially one that big ) indicates the precursor of one final move in the current direction ( down ) . I am looking for the low in the next few days with possibly an exhaustion gap down on one of the days. If this occurs, it's CALL option time for me. For those who could care less about technicals ( by the way I feel the same way about fundamentals ) good luck and have a great day of trading. For the techsters, anyone else have any observations pro or con. I miss the Preacher's postings. Whatever happened to him anyway?

rhody: That was for two reasons -- first you have to have money to buy silver -- you can't if you are broke. That is why I asked how India was doing. Secondly, it is not the price of silver that matters, it is its price relative to everything else, I think prices of other goods/commodities went down even more, IMHO. Silver might well have been attractive during the Great depression, even if its price did not go up like gold did. Of course, the price of gold went up because FDR said so.
I pass this topic on to experts on silver during the great depression -- I know more about gold during that time.

Gold is going to hit some stops today, geronimo!

Time to go back and study Herr EJ's most timely WARNING last night @ 21:39! If true, and I have no reason to doubt EJ's credibility, the next few months are gonna' ROCK WALL STREET TO ITS FOUNDATIONS! Ignore it at your PERIL!

In my opinion, gold should make a bottom today JULY29/98.I have a reason to say this and will explain if I am correct.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980729/co_newmont_1.html

As the POG gets driven lower and lower by the gold carry, there
comes a time when it begins to drive mines out of business, and
we enter a true shortfall of production vs demand. One would think
the practice would cease here, but no, the motive for driving gold
down is political, not economic, so the gold carry trade continues
until the POG reaches 25 year lows and currency collapses begin.
This releases more gold from weak CBs and still the POG is driven
down. There comes a time when the supply shortfalls are so extreme
( like now ) that the CBs must drop lease rates ever lower to encourage
the lease/shorting to continue. Eventually, the lease rates needed
are below 1% for 1 month gold. Since lease rates can't go below zero,
once we drop below 1% for one month gold, we are at the edge of the
CBs ability to control the POG via leasing.

I have not seen a lease rate for over two weeks and Bart tells me
it will be another week or two before he begins to post this critical
info, but as of last July 15, lease rates had dropped to 1.01% from 1.55%
in just 2 weeks. Did we go below 1%? Anybody know? if one month
lease rates go below 1%, and then climb back up, that is when
gold blows.

SilverBaron: Thanks -- I forgot about the waning use of silver as a currency. And -- at one time the US had a huge stockpile of silver -- do you know when?
I had an interesting thought -- when FDR raised the price of gold in 1932 or so, he was doing essentially what AG is doing now -- using gold to control the price of the dollar. I guess the use of gold as a means to control the price of the dollar never really went away, even if we are off the gold standard. I would guess then the relative trading volume of gold vs US dollars was much higher than it is now. Doesn't take much thinking to see what might happen if the tables turn on the relationship between gold and dollars.

Eric, delighted to hear from you ... your latest reminds me of my good friend Nikita Kruschev, who also said something about "...we will bury you!"

chuckle. The End draweth night, Bartelslinger.

btw, I also marked price of Disney & will check it 1 year from now & post for your amusement.

Spud ; )

EXCERPT --

Wednesday July 29, 6:58 am Eastern Time
Gold quiet in line with dollar/yen, PGMs off

LONDON, July 29 ( Reuters ) - Gold traded sluggishly . . . etc.

CUT TO:

Reports from Dubai showed silver re-exports rose to 35.812 tonnes in June, from 10.697 tonnes in May,
according to figures from Dubai Customs.

Exports to India were 35.76 tonnes in the month, a sign that demand there might just be turning around after the hammering it took amid the high rupee prices generated by $7.90 an ounce silver in early February.

``There has been a bit of a pick up in demand from the very, very low levels of earlier in the year,'' said Kamal Naqvi of Macquarie Equities Ltd.

``But it's still showing that compared with the last year and even the year before that, there's still some way to go,'' he added.

Platinum group metals lost their way . . . etc.

Pulled some levers to level off silver slide. Let things settle out and then back to up.

Also hit the DOW lever again. Those PPT boys are gonna have their hands full. Especially since they've lost a lot of their manpower to the Lewinski Protection Team. The LPT is draining the PPT.

jlh__A, hope you are right. Hopefully it won't be hitting a bottom like Charimin bathroom tissue and wiping all of us investors out.

Date: Tue Jul 28 1998 21:39
EJ ( Greetings from San Jose CA ) ID#229207:
Get ready to be SHOCKED! Asia crisis is hitting high tech like a million pound meat hammer. Asia
stopped buying in Q4 1997. High tech had a great Q1 1998. Why? They were all stuffing their
channels -- retailers, resellers, slamming closed any deal that still had legs, anyone who'd take
inventory so they could make our numbers. In Q2 we had zero growth as sell-thru just about
stopped and over-stocked retailers refused more inventory. Q3? These numbers will rrrrrrrock
your world. Heavy negative GDP for Q3. News of this will leak out by mid-August. By Sept a
sense of doom will be widespread, with major high-tech manufacturers announcing layoffs. From
there, Q4 will look like a deep, dark hole. Oct. 98 will be a very, very horrid month for the stock
market. Many tears.

Ugh!

I have no idea what this will do to the price of gold. I don't think anyone's thinking about gold or
silver. The machine is in very serious trouble. Anything is possible.

Sorry for the bad tidings. Thought you'd all want to know.

-EJ

Another bounce. Looks like we came back up off of 5.570

Still waiting to hear your explanation of why you think gold should make a bottom today.................??

FWIW, my Friendly Dealer says consignment sales to India and the far east are brisk once again. As I say, FWIW.

But we really shouldn't get too hung up on small supply/demand fluctuations. The silver market faces a systemic deficit. The die has _already_ been cast. It's is just a matter of time. ( Heard that before, eh? )

"Weakening demand" scares remind me of something ted Arnold said the other day. "Weakening physical gold demand" will hurt the price. Ha! The gold production gap is 1500 tons year. So now it's only 1400 tons a year and _this_ is a reason to be bullish. Amazing.

Must get back to work, must get back to work, must get back to work.

sam__a.

If we have a massive deflation.......

One of the major ( perhaps largest ) contributor to the 70-85% of new silver supply is from copper production, as a by-product.

If the price of copper were to fall below $0.60-0.65/pound, none of the conventional copper processing operations could produce at a profit, as this is about the break-even cost of production.

However - the new processing method known as SX-EW ( solvent extraction electro-winning ) which is used almost exclusively in new operations has a big cost advantage, with break-even costs about 1/3 less or about $0.40/pound. These operations would be survivors in a major deflation.

SX-EW_Processing_Of_Copper_Produces_NO_SILVER_As_A_Byproduct.
The silver stream as by-product from copper production would vanish.

It's been my observation that GOLD almost always TANKS just BEFORE A MAJOR ADVANCE! While the DOW almost always makes a major advance before it TANKS! Is there a corollary in there somewhere, or am I high on beer and cheeze? : ) T-BOND @ 5.745!!! Watch out!

Last paragraph should read: ""Weakening demand" scares remind me of something Ted Arnold said the other day. "Weakening physical gold demand" will hurt the price. Ha! The gold production gap is 1500 tons year. So now it's only 1400 tons a year and _this_ is a reason to be bearish. Amazing."

Maybe you could explain the basis for your opinion sooner rather than later. I view the shorts on the August contract needing to get spot gold down to around $285 in order to NOT have to cover on FND.

If, or more properly, when the shorts are required to cover on their gold contracts all hell will break loose and gold will shoot up $35-$45.

If some big money had a slew of out of the money calls and ever once forced spot gold up on FND...well you get my drift. This will happen, the only question is WHEN.

All just my opinion. Yes? We watch this old gold market together...until the new one arrives.

Tom

Gold is connected at the hip to the Yen. $/Yen has support at 142 which is the sociological line in the sand drawn when the big boys stepped in on June 15, 1998. If sepeculators push $/Yen through 142 hard enough the goverment will forced to sell $US's agian. This is the central issue right now. The worlds two largest economies, US, Japan have gold sandwiched with paper. It is ironic, but true.

I could use some of that beer right now, hold the cheese for now..

Hyundai shuts down main plant, workers refuse to leave

...South Korea's economy was bailed out by the International Monetary Fund in December. With bankruptcies mounting, more than 1.5 million workers have been driven out of their jobs...

( It seems as if they want the dots connected IMF = ??? )
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0729/i_ap_0729_41.sml

Something for JTF & LGB: ( Slow day at the market )
Body's Ability To Emit Light Arouses
New Hopes & Fears On Radiation From Mobile Phones
http://www.sciencedaily.com/story.asp?filename=980729064343

Data from the CPM Group ( extracted from an analyst report by CIBC Wood Securities ) indicates silver inventories peaked about 1989, at about 1.55 billion ounces ( 1,550 million )

If, on FND, the longs ever demand delivery then the same thing will happen only the rise will be much more. A real rush to cover as our departed ANOTHER would say.

Tom

dinner @ Cafe con Libros tomorrow?

- Steve

Off its $81,000 PEAK! The CHART DOES NOT LOOK HEALTHY, WARREN! BETTER SELL SOME COCA-COLA AND BUY SOME MORE SILVER BEFORE THE MARKET GETS AWAY FROM YOU!

FUEGO! FUEGO! FUEGO!

The JY was at 146 when Rubin intervened last month. However, the critical number triggering intervention was not the yen ( albeit the most closely followed ) ; rather intervention was the response to the Nikkei falling below 15,000 ( to about 14,600 ) . Japanese banks are allowed to count their stock holdings as part of their reserves. The Nikkei under 15K knocks Japanese bank reserves below the international trade margin requirement set by the BIS.

Japan -- Nikkei 225 -- ^N225 -- 2:03AM -- 16158.09 -- +43.55 -- +0.27%

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 375,645,771 Jul 28 close $26.40
Wed 29 Jul 98 In the News
See Bre-X Minerals Ltd ( BXM ) In the News
The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday, July 29, 1998, edition that
Barrick Gold should be forced to answer for its role in the Bre-X Minerals
fraud because it failed to warn investors of the "bombshell results" when
it tested 135 core samples and 130 showed no gold, says a filing in a
Texas-based class action lawsuit. The Post's Sandra Rubin writes that
Barrick has asked it be dropped from the suit because it was conducting
limited due diligence on Bre-X's Busang property and had no direct duty to
Bre-X investors. Barrick has also said it was bound by confidentiality
agreements. But lawyers behind the class action argue Barrick made
statements aimed directly at Bre-X shareholders when it promised to be
"fair" in any partnership deal to develop the Busang deposit, and that
changes everything. The Texas filing says, once Barrick started making such
statements targeted at Bre-X shareholders, it assumed an important duty; to
make full and complete disclosure. Barrick violated that duty, lawyers say.
( c ) Copyright 1998 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.canada-stockwatch.com

I coach tot soccer up in Cabbagetown; this ends around 7. Will do my best to get make it.

cheers,

Sam__A.

Aren't we all impressed?

But of course it will not be able to sustain this peak because the transportation index isn't playing along well.
I'm afraid it will lose one point or 1.5. I'm trembling.

I won't be able to make the Tornto meeting and regret I won't be able meet all the locals on this occassion.

My worst nightmares are coming true.

Re CB's and options: Options, I think, are playing an increasingly large role. Instead of selling spot, buying forward ( at a premium ) , the dealers are more and more selling spot and buying out-of-the-money-calls -- just in case. Naked speculation.

"...someone posted a statement from AG the the CB's actively push the price of gold down if it goes up too fast." Anybody got this quote?

sam__a.

FWIW Gold is arriving at a major cyclical bottom July 30 as I have
posted a few month ago.The capitulation I haven't seen,a cyclical
high will occur August 24 , a capitulation after? we'll see.
Taking position tomorrow 100% on the long side without reservation
until August 24.
Nem is finding a temporary bottom of 20,and look for a retracement
rally to 27 in August.
Nov 10 high will be higher than the low of July 30 ,even if
we go lower in September than the low of July 30.
Trading opportunities abound,cemented to a position is costly in this
volatile environment.
Have a great August

Dow 5717. By end Oct.
Aug. 28....8700 Jan. 1.......6775 Feb 28 7200

Frustrated@12:11 So what do you attribute NEM's slide below the January low to? The report reads pretty good to me -- is it the foreign ( asian ) exposure??? Just seeking some hiden cause for the disproportionate ( to other majors ) move down. Any comments from others familiar with Newmont? TIA

First posting - BIS has 75,000 shares that the public can buy @ $ 6,600 per share. Within the last two fiscal years, BIS has sold 40,000 shares to other CB's @ + $ 12,000 per share. Yielding +3 % , does anyone know of a financial analysis of BIS as a stock . EPS up +20 % in 1998 yet sells at less than 8x EPS. Thanks !!

James: Peter Munk is one sharp cookie, and can hire good lawyers. I would guess he would be able to weasel out of the suit. Bet they are sueing the gold Assayer and Freeport McMoran too. Standard procedure to sue all deep pockets.
Will be interesting to see how much ABX goes down. My guess all will be forgotten soon.

Scairy ain't it. October will be the month of fear. And final exhaustion before a real nice rally to end of February.

Try stock symbols BIZ and BIB at the following link:

http://www.swissinvest.com

Sam_A: Does that mean that the speculators are betting gold will go down? I assume that is the same as writing calls. If they are speculating in a big way, they are really exposed, IMHO. Interesting.

Nem is disproporional any way ain't it. On the way up it should be the same way. I hope.

I was thinking about this again awould like to ask my question again:

Does anyone know what happened to the Preacher. As ANOTHER would say, "Is he away for a time?". Or did he just disappear without telling anyone? Anybody know??!

Missing Link posted it I think: AG treats gold as a commodity although I believe in his heart of hearts he knows it is much more! Last sentence in testimony.
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of
Representatives
July 24, 1998

It is not possible to corner a market for financial futures where the underlying asset or its equivalent is in essentially unlimited supply. Financial derivative contracts are fundamentally different from agricultural futures owing to the nature of the underlying asset from which the derivative contract is "derived." Supplies of foreign exchange, government securities, and certain other financial instruments are being continuously replenished, and large inventories held throughout the world are immediately available to be offered in markets if traders endeavor to create an artificial shortage. Thus, unlike commodities whose supply is limited to a particular growing season and finite carryover, the markets for financial instruments and their derivatives are deep and, as a consequence, are extremely difficult to manipulate.
Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to
nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. ( Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years. ) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.

International Crude Oil Consultant, James Williams shares his expert
opinion about BLACK GOLD.

It is no surprise international drilling is falling off. However, this statistic does NOT tell the whole story. Whereas ONSHORE international drilling continues to decline, OFFSHORE international drilling has indeed been rising. Expert Williams does an excellent job of explaining the several factors which cause the differences between growth rates in U.S. and international drilling activity:

He opines that the most influencing factor determining grow rate disparities in International oil exploration rates is a function of each country's governmental Bureaucracy. Williams asserts "Whether onshore or offshore, exploration internationally is generally more dependent on governmental decisions than is the case in the United States. In essence individual political goals forge crude oil policies.

Therefore, Williams feels "Country risk studies should always be an integral part of a particular company analysis, when its sales are spread over a few countries."

Williams full report located at:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/crude_oil/williams072798.html

Testament to the disparities in Domestic vs International drilling rates is the Prices trend changes in the Oil Stock Indexes. You may view long-term Crude Oil Stock Trends of Oil - International Index, Oil - Domestic Producers Index, Oil - Services Index, Toronto Stock Exchange Oil & Gas Index and the all famous Gas and Oil Index ( XOI ) at the following URL.

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/crude_oil.html

Looking at the guy, he sure looks like he wish he had pulled the plug a year ago!!!

He was wrestlin' for his life with THE UNDERTAKER on the boob tube in the WWF! : ) just kiddin'! I miss his anal-y-sis boom bah too!

Got to hand it to the man; he is DAMN good!!! He will be a real loss for Klinton. GOOD for him he is leaving.

OOPS! THERE IT IS! Now, now, boys! Let's have an orderly exit! SINGLE FILE, PLEASE!

Chinese economist warns that growth may be off
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/072998/biz22_20206_noframes.html

Panel: Underground missile sites evading U.S. intelligence efforts
http://www.msnbc.com/news/183830.asp

The new face of nuclear nightmares
http://www.msnbc.com/news/120013.asp

DOW ( N ) 33 and STARTING TO PLUNGE THE WALL OF ( CON ) FIDENCE!

Here is some information re lease rates from World Gold Council site. The information is for the week ended July 17.

"...Open interest on Comex has remained very steady since,
indicating little speculative activity in recent days.
Gold lease rates continued to weaken over the week, confirming the quiet market conditions. The one-month rate slipped from 0.87% to 0.75% and the 12-month rate from 1.76% to 1.62%..."

Been negative on gold for a long time and looking to sell at a big loss and I think it is going to get a lot bigger. I see no reason for gold to go up, it has not responded to monetary pblms or political pblms. I don't think a W. Bufet is going to come along and buy a ton of it either.

To All ..
Looked at Newmont's result. Boy that "cash cost" number
of 185 ish looks groovey ..
However NEM produced 1.038 mill oz of gold ..they
made a profit of 27.4 mill $ or 27.4/1.038 = 26.3$/oz.

They say that their average realization was $320
per oz.
Therefore their actual cost of production must
have been 320 - 26.3 = 293.7 $/oz. ( ignoring any
non-recurring items )

The low cash costs of NA mines are a glowing tribute
to the imagination of the US Mining accountants.

A dividend of $0.03 a share ??? Give it back,
shareholders .. they need it more than you do.

Perspective: XAU positive beta ( 4x+ of DOW )
DOW off 0.3%
XAU off 1.3% I'm hangin' in there for now...

IMHO NEM reaching greater lows than it's Jan. low is likely
due to a couple of factors.

Last quarter NEM's earnings were 33% above Wall Street's
expectations. This quarter they were about 6% below
Wall Street's expectations. This is likely why the
price has declined so much in these past few days leading
up to their earnings report which was released today.

Just as positive sentiment has propelled Dow and NASDAQ
stocks to prices which far exceed their fundamentals,
negative sentiment has driven the price of gold stocks to
levels which may not reflect their true fundamental values.

NEM which is fully unhedged is likely to experience large
swings in it's price due to changes in the POG as well as
consumer sentiment. Having approached the $300 price
level so many times without penetrating it has further
increased the level of negative setiment in this market,
thus, lower lows in the stocks most vunerable.

If the POG gets above $300 we should quickly see this stock
back at the $26-$30 level. Can't remember where I read it
but a $10 change in the POG equates to a $0.17/sh change in
earnings for NEM, or so I read.

Several months ago I looked at NEM and it seemed to me that
it could go to $20. I didn't believe myself then but here we are!
Today it hit $20 even. Is this the low? I think so. But it is your
call. The tendancy when targets are reached is to look for a lower
target just like the reverse on the upside one keeps looking for a
higher target.

In the long run buying at $20 will make you money.

I personally like the RSA stocks but NEM is one of the better
North American golds. They do have a low suit to contend with along
with ABX. For different reasons. I look at the chart of ABX and I
see 10 to 12. Will it happen? I don't own any of either but like
NEM better. Safer I believe.

For what it's worth.

Thanks, GD

discouraging isn't it. I can't see any reason on the horizon that gold will get out of the doldrums and rise to where we would like it. Maybe a short blip if Clinton gets it--in the neck--but the rest is the same old same old.

rusting to 35 5/8.......looking forward to that golden august...Salud!!!

You may be right if WC gets the book thrown at him gold may go up a bit and I will then sell,lick my wounds and look for something to do with the leftover cash. It does hurt to be wrong for so long and to have missed other opportunities but thats life. I really can't figure out why gold did get back to the $400 area and then drop so quickly to the 300 area. Manipulation I guess.

The $320 realized price was for Nemont "Gold" ...acquired by
...Nemont "Mining".

Holy smoking gun! He's on record! The next questions put to him should be:

1. How much gold have CB's leased to date?

2. What is the current rate of gold outflow due to CB leasing?

3. What will happen when the CB gold runs out?


Thanks _very_ much for the quote.

sam__A

I'm hardly a perma-bull. But hold tight to your gold. We really aren't that far away from your hopes being realized. ( Gack! I sound like ANOTHER. ) But it's true. If silver's the tennis ball held down at the bottom of a nine-foot pool, gold is the basketball at the bottom of Crater Lake.

Excellent point. Cash costs are bullsh-t. Lowering cash costs typically means high grading the deposit. However, analysts use these numbers to illustrate how "high" the gold price is right now.

Somebody posted something here the other day to the effect that the cash costs at the Sigma mine in Val d'Or are 270/oz. That's funny. When I worked there, gold was 400/oz and cash costs were 400/oz. Amazing, eh?

cheers,

sam__A.

Noble Dilling ( NE ) nyse. First class operation. Stock price really hammered lately, lots of in-da-know oil execs love this company. FWIW ( $19!! )

to all
POG = 41250/yen exchange rate ..
= 41250/142.3 = 289.9
actual = 289.5 .. close enough

to frustrated
NEM makes 4 mill oz a year .
10 $/oz makes 40 million $ extra
revenue at constant cost.

they have 166.8 mill shares so
10 $/oz makes 40/166.8 = $0.24/sh
extra profit ( before tax ) .

However .. this cuts BOTH ways..
and 10$ drop in POG below 320 reduces
eps by $0.24 ..

NEM actual costs are breakeven
with the spot price NOW. Maybe
the market isnt too impressed
by the accountant's "cash cost"
illusion.

and the PPT looking up, shoveling billions as fast as they can, sweat streaming down the side of their three-piece Italian silk suits...

what will be the "nudge" that sends on penguin over the edge?

"HEY EVERYBODY! THERE GOES FRED! THAT'S THE CUE! LET'S GO!"

Spud

I sold almost all my gold holdings about 20 months ago and I'm waiting to buy back. I still don't see any reason for a rise but I don't see any new reason for a fall either --except nobody wants to buy at the moment.

Whew, got through that session -- not terribly worse for wear. It hurt, but it had to happen. Now watch for today's Comex numbers ( especially now that options expirey day is ending ) . All heck's gonna break loose. It's all about these next few weeks.

Other than what I read on a few dedicated sites nobody talks about gold. At work I hear constant talk about this or that investment, I'm the lone person even aware of gold, not very encourageing. A few know of W.B. silver purchase but show no interest.

As I have mentioned before on this site my feeling is that the
gold leasing of 8000 tonnes does not make sense to me. So I still
conclude that the majority of this is slight of hand leasing. Not
really leasing which will cause the POG to rise. Certainly not 8000
tonnes of it.

Lets get real on this site. Just think about it for a few
moments. Something is wrong with this picture.

Veronoso let the cat out of the bag awhile ago ( 9 months ) and
what has happened. The price has gone down. It should not have.
Seeing the figures keep me in gold stocks. To my loss. What did some
of you do. When something is so obvious it is NOT true. Therefore, I
correctly conclude that Veronoso is only tell 1/2 of the truth.
The other side of the large leasing is nulified in ways that we
will only find out about when the game is over.

I think it has someting to do with the relatioship between Central
Banks and their respective Treasuries. Or something to do with commercial
banks taking oposite sides and then merging the banks as is going on
now. When it is all over only a small part of the 8000 tonnes will be
able to push up the POG.

When the dollar falls the POG goes up. I am bulish, just not
8000 tonnes of it!!!!!!!!!

Thanks, GD

Our central bank owns no gold the treasurey owns the gold.

You did the right thing, let me know when you buy, your a lot better at this than me.

Or lick the unclean sidewalks?

I'm confused, but then, I couldn't figure out
how you could make the call of $350 bottom
from the cover of a magazine. Tell us,
oh great one. And one more thing:

Why did you lie about being Bernatz?

who's on first and Idontknow is catching.

Look frustrated .. I give up ..
you do it .. take whatever revenue per
ounce you feel is appropriate ..
.. and subtract $26.3/oz from it ..

You will then have calculated newmont
whatchamacallit's cost of production ..

Me go bed now ..

Lookin' good--for them hungry BEARS! YUM! YUM!

Away...to watch DISNEY STOCK plunge into fantasyland! Maybe they can open a new theme park on the San Andreas Fault for EB and his buddies. Or, maybe they can get into some new enterprises like, BIG RED INK BOAT, or HOOVER VILLAS, or DEPRESSION LAND CONDOM INIUMS! Oh my! DIS DOW ( N ) 1/4 to 35! DOW DOW ( N ) 45! AUG. GOLD CLIMBING BACK OVER $290!

if the total short fall in gold is 1700 tons, without additional demand,the CB's have a 20 year supply. Until demand increases, or supply decreases, gold is dead in the water. AS I have said before, mining stocks are gonna break lots of folks-- PERIOD! CB's are paid back loans from production which means you still have a 1700 ton shortfall. Not more not less, you best bet on mine closures because demand is not increasing very fast.

gogold my poor friend ..

get help .. before it is too late ..

and bless you my child.

This question has been nagging...

ORV ( TSE ) yesterday was rising nicely to 1.13 / share. Two sells by a brokerage quickly put it down to 1.06. This same brokerage then executes an 813,000 cross with itself at 1.00. In a case like this, who determines the $1.00 share price? It doesn't seem kosher somehow. The 813K trade becomes part of the volume history. Are any commissions paid in a cross?
I've seen it done with many junior mining companies and it's always struck a discordant note.

J. D. Thanks that's what I was lookin for; not smart enough yet to crunch the numbers so logically.
Sam_A: Re AG's comments, youre welcome. He is a central banker and IMO will do his part to talk POG down.
Frustrated: Thanks for the input; reason I was interested is because knew they were unhedged and seemed to be a better deal than ABX right now --- decisions decisions ---

Thanks, using your analysis the actual cash costs would
be even slightly higher that $293 because NEM's net income
was $25.7. Using your analysis would put the number
somewhere around $295/oz.

Thanks for keeping us honest.

Hiya! Where do you see the price of gold over the next few weeks, few months, few years? Thank you.

Very good post about the CB's control of the PMGs...To add some more info to this subject, the CB's can keep the price of gold at a particular level by leasing for as long as they all cooperate...as we are seeing now...they simply supply the market with a paper contract of gold and drive the price down...AS LONG AS THE WORLD DOES NOT RUN OUT IN THE WAREHOUSES....NOW, this where it gets interesting.....say that several of the CBs decide not to participate any longer in this scheme and wants to recover their leased paper, and they start to call it back in or they just wait until the lease comes up for renewal and they don't roll it over. Then the price starts to rise because for some reason, the demand starts to really cook. Now, because these are really short positions in the market, a short covering starts and panic sets in because all the available stocks are now gone!!! The price skyrockets!!! Then confusion, bank closures due to defaults, etc., etc....you get the picture, right....Soooo, what could cause such a swell to change the tide you ask.... I'm glad you asked.... The Gold market is very tiny compared to equities or currencies ( as we all know ) , and all we need to do to stop this paper plastering is take delivery of the physical gold. If every gold meister bought 20 1Oz coins ( $6,000+ ) and there were 10 million of us who did that...not unreasonable... that would be 2 Billion Ozs taken off the market, and enough to trigger buying from other investors. This would then force the short sellers to cover and now you have the ball rolling, once there is attention focused on the move in Gold, the game will be up and all hell will break loose.

Actually this is really what is beginning to happen, but right now it is in the numismatic gold coins RIGHT NOW! Try to buy them from the coin dealers, as I have, and you will find that over the last 3 years you will pay more for the 1 oz St. Gauden Gold $20 gold piece then you did when gold was $120/oz higher 3 years ago...there is a very silent move to move into gold by the very wise...the coins go first...then the bullion coins...the the gold bars...

There is another possibility for this trigger, and one which is even more likely...this is what's happening in the silver market right now. As the silver stocks reach 0, the panic to buy will trigger fast market conditions, just as they did in Palladium...Silver will pull gold up as fear hits the gold market, because no one wants to be caught in the updraft of the silver move if you are short gold. I beleive that this will happen within the next 5 months...January could be the time that this happens.

The bigger the LIE on gold leasing and the issueing of paper contracts which are not backed by physical, the fast the rise will be...I believe that it will be a straight up rocket until it hits equalibrium, then there will be the first wave selloff. This will start the bull in earnest.

If one assumes that France+Germany+Italy+US maintain their Gold holdings, then the 1700 ton shortfall held by other CB's is 10 years. CB'ers are momentum players too. If Au ever goes up in our lifetimes, some CB'ers will become buyers !!

I think we're missing an important fact here. Its all psychological ( or psypsychological as per my first attempT to spell it ) . IMHO they don't worry about break even costs at McDonalds, Microsoft, et cetera, but rather worry about packaging a product and selling it for all the suckers will pay. IMHO

The gold mining and refining sector is like a tired streetcorner whore, willing to take whatever abuse the customers want to give her but all this could change with a little lesson on self esteem. Or perhaps she just needs a good pimp. "You want gold? Central bank you say? Fine. We'll put you down on our list for next Tuesday at 2:30 then you can tell us how much you need it. Then we'll schedule you another appointment to talk about price. Try to wear something a little less grey and tone down the aftershave a little bit." IMHO

Tried your URL - cannot locate. Please try me again.

occurring in the Western Hemisphere in the next few weeks, few months,
and few years. ( greater than 4.5 )

Thanks bunches.

Now THERE'S a REAL DISASTER waitin' to happen!

I agree with you...prices will be dictated by perceptions
but fundamentals will always play a part in determinig what
those perceptions will be in the long run as we shall see.

Never hurts to have all the facts.

Mtn Bear - ABX probably less risky. NEM a more direct play
on the POG. If POG doesn't go where we all want it to go
NEM will suffer the consequences.

Good luck what ever you decide.

Are you still planning on divulging the "scoop" soon?

Next few weeks -- zero

Next few months -- only one:
Epicenter: Riverside, California, November 17, 1998, 4.8

Next few years -- three:
1. Riverside, cited above;
2. Epicenter: Walnut Creek, California, February 6, 2000, 5.0
3. Epicenter: Greenville, Mississippi, June 3, 2001, 6.7.

There. I've shown you mine, now show me yours. Thanks tons ( or many ounces ) .

Achille's heel of the central banks' control of the gold supply.

The CBs can lease gold without governmental approval, and it stays on their books, even though some of the physical has left their vaults. Very few central banks can sell their gold outright without governmental approval, though.

This means that the banks can put paper gold on the market as fast as they want to manipulate the price, but they can't mobilize their physical gold fast enough to manipulate a fast-moving market.

If there is a surge in demand for physical gold ( as you point out, just 10 million buyers of physical gold could put a strain on the warehouse stocks ) the CBs will lose control.

Now we know why the CBs pay so much attention to the psychology of the public with regard to gold.

- Steve

We put up with in/s/anities over in K2 until they became overwhelming.
They destroyed K2.
They will not be tolerated here.
A mosquito buzzing in one's ear may eventually wear out the host's patience.

lest we forget..........

Date: Sun Jul 26 1998 07:15
STUDIO.R ( @surfing the faulted plane..................... ) ID#288369:
I, studio, hereby predict a massive and destructive earthquake in southern to central California running from Brawley, through Riverside on up to Gilroy. This tragedy will occur between Aug.15 and Sept. 23.
There is nothing that can be done, other than to worry and wait.
I can make no other comment on this. nostrastudio.

the earthquake associated with the recent El Nino will occur in Riverside this time? Nov. would be just about right.

- Steve

EIA data released today shows that imports of crude oil
were stable but inventories increased by 3.8 million to
a total of 343.1 million barrels. Input to refineries
was about the same at 15.651 but production of gasoline
and distillate decreased. ( Excess went into kerosene
and commercial jet which was all moved into the
market ) . Inventories of gasoline and distillate
increased. Overall, refiners are not able to process
all of the crude oil they are buying and cannot sell as
much product as they are producing.

The interesting story is the increased importation of
distillate, all of which went into inventories,
bringing the total to a record 143.3 million ( addition
of 3.2 million ) a good three months before distillate
inventories would normally peak!

Refineries will not be able to continue to operate this
way. Production will be cut back soon. For a complete
update, check out the NOESIS site on Monday.
http://www.oil-gasoline.com --George

AMEN to that post...it is exactly that...the CBs can't loose control of this market or they ARE dead! As bankers, they hate gold because it does not earn interest for them...but who ever said that a Central Bank had to earn interest on their assets...they are there to keep stability of the markets for their constituants/citizens. A move like this places the world in such a volunerable position, that one could only imagine that a world wide "derivative accident" would lead to kaos and hyper-inflation. Obviously none of these people studied the hyper-inflation of Germany in the '20s...If they had, they would look around and call everyone else crazy for even getting involved in leasing.

Freasyberry__A ( Silverbaron ) ID#338418:

Tried your URL - cannot locate. Please try me again
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hmmmmmmmmm... it works for me -

Here is the URL again - go to the 'quick search' box at upper left, enter either symbol BIZ ( return ) ; this should take you to the BIS section, where you have many choices to view. Ignore any error messages you get when calling up the URL ( I get one of these ) .

http://www.swissinvest.com

ACTIVISTS TO CONFRONT DISNEY'S "ANTI-FAMILY" AGENDA AT "MICKEY" PARADE IN VERMILLION, SD

VERMILLION, SD -- A group of Midwestern pro-family activists are
teaming up with local Christians in the
Vermillion, South Dakota region to once again protest the Disney
corporation and its "anti-family" policies at a
Disney parade, this one to be held in Vermillion on Saturday
morning, July 18. Pro-family activists protested and
distributed Disney-boycott information at the first two of
"Mickey's Hometown Parades," which appeared last
weekend in Fort Wayne, IN, and opened July 4th in Platteville,
WI, when the pro-family group secured a protest
entry in the parade itself.

They plan to protest all five parades this summer."Disney has
betrayed the American family," said Scott Heldrith,
organizer of the group of Christians coming from as far away as
Chicago and from several local towns to voice
concerns about Disney corporation policies. "Disney is exploiting
Vermillion and towns across America to give
itself a `small town' family image, while the Disney corporation
then fleeces the American family and uses its
money to undermine Christian values."

Heldrith, along with several area residents, will creatively
convey their message in various ways to parade
attendees before, during, and after the event. The pro-family
group will then hold a press conference immediately
following the parade outside of the picnic area to be held at the
end of the parade route.

Heldrith supports his allegations against Disney with a laundry
list of objectionable policies and programming.
"Disney directly funds abortion by underwriting Planned
Parenthood, promotes the normalization of homosexual
marriage by offering `same-sex' benefits to its employees,
attacks Christianity with such programs as `Priest'
[Miramax], `Nothing Sacred' [ABC] and the soon to be released
diatribe against all that is good, `Dogma'
[Miramax]" Such a listing is far from exhaustive.

Heldrith added to the list the infamous `Gay Day' celebrations
hosted at Orlando's Disney World, "Ellen"'s
advancing of all things lesbian on prime time TV, Disney's use of
grossly underpaid child labor to make toys in
China and Haiti, and Michael Eisner's recent quip equating
Southern Baptist boycotters to Nazis. Sources for
these and other anti-family policies of Disney can be obtained
from the American Family Association,
( 601 ) 844-5036.

"We welcome the help of these courageous Christians to expose
Disney's agenda that undermines familes," said
Mike Lemon of nearby Yankton, SD. "When standing up for Christian
values which are being attacked in the
heart of Small Town, USA, let no American be considered an
`outsider.' As Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. said,
`Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.' This
weekend, Disney's injustices shall be brought to light
." National groups supporting the parade protesters' effort
include the American Family Association, Collegians
Activated to Liberate Life, and Operation Rescue National.

###

July 16, 1998 CALL Press release reprinted with permission of
CALL

[If you would like to help sponsor CALL's home town parade you
may contact Scott Heldrith bowmanms@juno.com]

that is all.

for Nick Aurator etc who were involved in the development
of the chicken standard .. and
others such as His Royal Cheesiness who are interested
in the rand and how much it may fall as a result of
the incompetance of my knothead leader big nellie
mandela
went shopping today to obtain data to offer at
the feet of this august group .. Items are shown
priced in $US/Kilo and US$/pound using todays rate
of 6.2 rand/$/

Format .. item ,rand/kg,$/kg,$/lb

bananas,1.99,$0.32,$0.15
Bruss. Sprouts,6.99,$1.12,$0.51
Onions ,2.29,0.40,$0.18
Potatos, 2.29, 0.37,0.17
Gr Peppers,3.99,0.64,0.29
Eggplant, 3.99, 0.64,0.29
Tomatos, 2.99,0.48,0.22
Apples,3.99,0.64,0.29
Ruby Grapefruit 3.99,0.64,0.29

Item
Olive Oil French ( Amphora ) 750 ml bottle .. 19.99 = $3.22
Celery bunch 1.99 = $0.32
Pineapples 2.50 = $0.40
Papaya large 2.99 = $0.48
Parsley bunch 0.99 = $0.16
Coriander bunch 1.29 = $0.20
Spinach bunch 0.99 = $0.16
Mushroom packet 3.99 = $0.64
Cocktail tomatos 3.99 = $0.64
butter lettuce 0.99 = $0.16

Bread brown loaf 2.50 = $0.40

I humbly await your comment

Your obediant servant

For those considering selling your RANGY, you might want to check this out first! Also, RR's resources now at 14 million ounces and growing. Buy more? Yes?

http://www.randgold.co.za/test/financia.htm

We are waiting, kind sir.

With the failkure of yesterday's gold rally despite continued turmoil in the financial markets, the odds of a final selling climax have greatly increased. I placed those odds at about 80% on Monday. Now the odds are about 95%. The action has gone beyond awful to totally horrendous.

about mining companies really rings the bell. Why have the mining
companies shot themselves in the foot all these years?
Were they bought by all the gifts: special mining tax laws so
all these guys sold out for a comfortable life?
Why have these miners sold out to the establishment? Fear of govt.
take over? WHY, WHY, WHY, that is the question?

Anyone with any insights to this behavior by the mining companies?

hanks, GD

Can one also use 800/yen = price of silver/oz ?

CLOSE TO DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL!! T-BOND @ 5.76%! NASDAQ AND INTERNET STOCKS LEADIN'THE WAY DOWN! MARKET INTERNALS STILL SUCKIN' AIR! BAD BREADTH IN DOWGS!

Away to play some golf and contemplate the conundrum of how a load of lumber can be worth more than an ounce of fine gold!

from broker --

-187,669
77,811,891

My take on this is that the BIG CAP gold mining companies, like ABX and NEM, are "owned" lock, stock and barrel by the same guys runnin' the world financial system--a steady and reliable source of cheap gold----FOREVER!

Who cares about profits? Just keep us supplied with cheap gold to keep writin' options against and leasin' to those sucka' gold bugs! That's where the REAL PROFITS ARE! HAR! HAR!

You are probably closer to the truth than you think.

Strat: Thanks for the Noesis link. He is pretty bearish about oil prices until the year 2000. For those who have not seen it yet he provides a forecast in chart form.

HERR CHEDDER! I am NOW the proud owner of 55 shares ( max for IRA $2,000at around $35/per ) of Disney. I feel soooooooooooowarm and cozy about it. It also gives me great pleasure to know that you and my buddy the Spuddy will be giving me updates ( although it is not necessary ;- ) ) . Let us watch it plunge or go sideways or go up........ ( tap tap tap ) ............ ( EB's foot tapping while waiting ) .........ho hum........which way to run...............
I have an interesting project. Pick one of your favorite mining stocks or buy $2,000 ( US ) worth of bullion and we will compare gains/losses by December......and then by next July. It will be fun, NO? I urge all to do this with me.........buy an IRA ( real or imaginary I care not ) and let us compare December 15 and then again on July 15, 1999. This should be close enough to WhyTwoKens......er.......Kays to check its effect on POG and stox..............EH? You can sell your stuff whenever you like before the dates to show profit.....I don't care about that either......after all its ALL about profit.....to me anyway.
away...to w/w


Glad to see you started taking your smart pills today.
Who knows? Tomorrow you may smell the coffee.
All due respects.

about boycotting DISNEY ???

for Gollum .. you can do that ..
but then its Gollums first law.

for Gagnrad .. If you believe that
profits follow perceptions .. then
I suggest you switch on CNN .. this
is not the place to find PERCEPTIONS
.. I dont think.
profits are always better than losses.
perceptions will accomodate in the long
run .. McDonalds for example was all
about the COST of making and distributing
a hamburger.. It was a good low cost
product ..

On another machine now ( webtv ) and the swissinvest.com link bombs for me here. Sorry - I don't know another one.

NY Precious Metals
Review

Aug gold hits 6-week low on dollar

07/29/98 15:51 ET






New York--July 29--COMEX Aug gold futures settled down $1.80 at $289.90
per ounce after dropping to a 6-week low of $289.10 at mid-session. Gold
edged down as the dollar rose against the yen. The negative tone spilled
over into silver, platinum and palladium, which also ended in the red.

"Gold is falling on the weakness in the yen...It's weakening as the
day is progressing, and there's not a lot of volume here," said Bill
O'Neill, senior futures strategist at Merrill Lynch. The dollar recouped
losses made early in the session and jumped to a 2-week high of 142.93 yen.
It was at 142.25 yen at 1510 ET.
The dollar climbed against the yen as forex traders gave the thumbs
down to the appointment today of Japan's 78-year-old former Prime Minister
Kiichi Miyazawa as finance minister. His early refusal to comment on the
yen's weakness lent weight to an analytical firm's report that he might
pursue a reflationary policy which would tolerate a softer yen.
Overall, the economic scenario is "erosive" for gold, said analysts,
noting that it also came under pressure from a slip in crude oil prices and
a generally negative tone across the commodities complex. The CRB index hit
a 5-year low of 206.01 and was at 206.13 at 1530 ET.
Spot gold's inability to push over $292 resistance over the last few
days also pressured prices, said traders.
Today's over-the-counter gold and silver 0930 ET option expiration may
also have triggered some selling, traders said. There was probably some
disappointed liquidation after a large group of silver calls at $5.75 per
ounce failed to expire in-the-money.
Sep silver settled down 7.7c at $5.593 per ounce after dropping to 1-
week low of $5.58 per ounce as sell-stops were triggered.
"Silver was giving back the sharp rally last week...It went up on
short-covering and anyone that ignored that did so at their peril," said
one trader. However, another suggested the pullback was just a brief
retracement before silver players would attempt to push it higher.
Meanwhile, after an early fall in step with the weakening yen today,
platinum and palladium steadied at their lows, despite news that Almaz,
Russia's only exporter of palladium and platinum, has agreed on the
conditions of this year's sales with some of its traditional Japanese
buyers. Almaz deputy general director Sergei Gorny told Bridge that the
first shipments will be made in August.
Gorny did not disclose the terms of the deals but said Almaz had
sufficient stocks and would supply Japanese consumers this year with
virtually the same amount of material as last year.
Traders were not surprised that prices did not plummet on the news.
"People are very skeptical and probably won't believe it until the Japanese
start receiving ingot...They may have signed contracts but it doesn't
guarantee the delivery of ingot. Recently they have been selling sponge
spot," said one trader.

SETTLEMENT PRICES
--Aug gold ( GCQ8 ) at $289.90, down $1.8; RANGE: 292.2-289.1
--Sep silver ( SIU8 ) at $5.593, down 7.7c; RANGE: 5.75-5.58
--Oct platinum ( PLV8 ) at $380.5, down $5; RANGE: 387.0-379.2
--Sep palladium ( PAU8 ) at $298.9, down $5.45; RANGE: 305.0-298.2

SPOT PRECIOUS METALS PRICES:
Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 289.80-290.30 290.50-290.90 291.75-292.25
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.59-5.62 5.65-5.68 5.71-5.73
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 380.00-381.00 378.00-380.00 383.00-385.00
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 297.00-307.00 303.00-313.00 309.00-319.00

-- Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

Only one PROBLEM! ANY D*** FOOL CAN WRITE A GOLD OPTION AND POCKET THE PROFIT--EVEN IF THEY DON'T KNOW A GOLD MINE FROM A LATRINE! ( AND MANY HAVE, AND MANY DON'T ) ! At some point, as ANOTHER has so eloquently reminded us, some rich paper traitor ( I mean, trader ) will start demandin' PHYSICAL DELIVERY! AT THAT point, the cute little game of screw the suck' gold bugs is OVER! THEN we'll see all those ABX hedges come off in short order, OR ELSE! I kinda' like the sound of that "OR ELSE"!!!!! Heh...heh....heh!

If we buy your observation about it being about costs, and
not the price you can receive or charge; how do you explain your
pushing RSA stocks. Are they going to get their production costs
down to $175 so they can make enough money to justify their even
being in business?

The hamburger market is a little different from the gold market
don't you think?

I know the Rand has come down in price but that is just
manipulation of the market price for Rand. When we have a FREE
market in gold and all the financial cards are on the table I
believe we will see that it is not cost alone that will determine the
fate of gold stocks.

Thanks, GD

Thanks for the post on RANGY. What is going to happen to it?
Is the coming together of JCI, CAM, and Rangy going to become a reality?
When?

Thanks, GD

ON VIDEOTAPE ON AUGUST 17! Oh, boy! Time to rent "Sex, Lies and Videotape" again!

status of immortal, you are a God, not the God, Bill Murray speaking for me here...what an image...

The entire crew at Cuervo Central is laughing on the lawn...

a shareholder. Have you ever heard of Loewen? They are a CDN funeral parlor & cemetery operator, the world's 2nd biggest. They were sued a couple of years ago in Mississippi for a ridiculous amount of money. I was a shareholder & trusted the "experts" who said that the suit had no merit, etc. To make a long story short, a semi-literate jury awarded the plaintifs $500,000,000. Lowen eventually settled for $150,000,000 & has never recovered. The share price is 1/2 what it was before the suit.

As for Munk being a sharp cookie, I disagree. His reputation is overblown because he lucked into the Nevada properties. 10 years before he got lucky he ran a Co. called Clairtone in N.S. Canada. Despite many subsidies he eventually ran that Co. into the ground, even though they produced good stereo equipment.

I personally believe that Munk did'nt release the test results because the takeover possibility was artificially buoying the ABX share price.

The lead lawyer for the plaintiffs ( Yetter ) is 1 of the best & has won huge awards for his clients. Also ABX is a foreign Co. which I'm sure that they will demonize in front of the jury. You should be aware of the many ridiculous lawsuits that have gone against the defendants in the U.S. I think it could drag on for years, but eventually ABX will have to cough up big bucks ( in the 100s of millions ) .

12 DOWN to every 1 UP!

Summation index.

EB: This morning, just by coincidence some nice fella, got tired of seeing my order and sold me 10 June 00 380 calls. At a round number of 200 FRNs per copy, that should ( where's my calculator? ) add up to the required 2Gs. ..... but Dec 98 is a little close.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.80. The 50 day moving average is 30.66

On my recent trip to Japan I found out that the majority of companies either don't have sufficent working capital to operate their businesses , or if they do have money they won't spend it on capital expenditures. The Japanese consumer usually saves about 30% of their disposable income and because of the economic uncertainty they won't spend it either. Banks will not lend money to weak companies and those that don't need money won't borrow. They bank of Japan is pumping huge amount of money into their banking system to keep the banks afloat but that money
is not in circulation and can't help the economy. Every one want's safe capital . Many of the large companies in Japan are exporting as much as possible to North America and Europe to stay alive but these markets are beginning to shrink. Japanese exports to other Asian countries and South America are declining. What will they do when the North American markets go into a severe recession ? A trade war is for certain. The Japanese economy will collapse and we will start over again. All the debts will be written off and a depression in Japan will last for another 10 years. It's probable that a spike in interest rates in the US will force the Japanese banks and insurance companies to unload their treasuries bills hoard at huge losses.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .225. The 50 day moving average is .242. There have been 14 occasions where the XAU closed in the 65.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #12. The #1 ranking was on August 1, 1986, with a gold price of $360.80, an XAU of 65.69, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .182

Gold/Silver Ratio = 51.59. The 50 day moving average is 55.05

Gagnrad: Just looking at the weekly on SWC. It looks like a retrace to about 26 before resumption. That would put it at the bottom of the channel.

Re AG's recent congressional testimony: This is dynamite stuff. Absolutely breathtaking. I have bounced it around my little corner of the earth but before I take it elsewhere I need sources. Where was this clip actually taken from? Where do I find the complete transcripts? Where do I verify these transcripts? Need everything checked in triplicate.

Once again, many thanks.

sam__A.

Spot gold $293.37; spot silver $5.33; XAU 71.19

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980729/V000360-072998-idx.html#TOP

This is not good. Sept/Dec spread widened to 3.3 cents today. Yesterday we closed at 3.0 cents and last week it peaked at about 2.5 cents. This is not constructive. Indicates physical scarcity is easing.

Patience, patience. And keep some powder dry. And watch your exposure.

Sam__A.

You placed a bad bet. October is the devil's month. Enjoy October.

Spot gold $303.03; spot silver $5.59 ( this is the 6th consecutive day day we have been above it ) ; XAU 80.93; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.73

open, upright palms to all...truly it would bring a smile to be a leaf falling on your lawns...for me...magic rushing to meet the children...


Forever the twinkle in the pupicular minds that WILL inherit OUR dreams... is the future comfort of our evenings as we drift comfortably into the very best we know...

My FAMILY SENDS OUR LOVE TO EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU...

JP: That has been a underlying theme here for a very long time. It's interesting to read a first hand account that adds some confirmation. The world has relied on the US to remain a consumption sink for far too long. When US consumption declines, paper of all kinds will begin to melt. Not a pleasant prospect for the world.

Tell me it isn't true.
He wouldn't let that happen!
He wouldn't have his goons liquidate people
who posed a threat to him or his political career.
YES!

I found it. It's real. Amazing.

sam__a.

Cool! Except I guess it'll have to be Gollum's third law since the first two are already taken.

I compared gold mining prices today vs those in 1970 and to my surprise I found they were about the same for the major companies. I know that most of the folks on this forum are losing money on mining shares but from an historical view point ,these are bargain prices. It's always possible they will decline further but the risk is minimal. The upside potential is huge when the gold market turns up.

Reuters - The Federal Reserve added $2.100 billion of reserves to the U.S. banking system on Wednesday via overnight system repurchase agreements, The New York Fed confirmed.

Would not the direct manipulation of POG to control price be illegal?

stay in CANADA...very large dogs...very large dogs...WJC and the scum that produced him...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...this is not millenial madness...

there will be a fantastic battle...WE WHO ARE THE DREAMS OF CHILDREN...SHALL BE VICTORIOUS...THUS THE LESSON ENDETH...

In this next battle PITY will be an endless STUPIDITY...

I will not, nor shall I...have to forgive the warriors I will ride onto the battlefield with...

GOT WISDOM?

Yes. Thank you. Patience, dry powder, covered exposure: check. Sitting a thin sheet above support, resolute in my position while doubts haunt, tomorrow unknown -- a true "trader's moment," I imagine. That's what I love about this action: On any one day, on any one trade, anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. Nobody knows. "Hi-ho Silver!" I boldly cry -- with my thumb out on the freeway, eyeing Tonto approaching in his Coupe Deville.

Just because something is a bargain doesn't mean that you should by it. On the other hand, if it becomes a steal... Hell, during the 1930s depression, wasn't corn burnt in place coal because it was cheaper???? I suppose I could always burn my stock certificates... Just not now, it's too hot out. :- ) )

But eventually the trail of broken bodies will be
connected to Klinton and the Arkansas Mafia.
When that story breaks in credible testimony Clinton's goose is cooked!
Then, by golly, Gold & Silver ought to rise in the kitchen's heat.

Thr Golden Sword of Justice will fell Old Dickory. Yes, We ride. AYE!! YA!! YA!! YA!!!! VAMANOS! LOS DOS AMIGOS GRANDES!!!!

You boys got the wrong bottle, thats mescal you be a drinkin.

No es verdad!. We wear our mescal as moustaches! Got Gun? Bang! Bang!!! ( click ) uh oooooh. ( reload ) Bang!! Bang!! ( click ) Damnit!, bad gun.

Richard Burke-Yea, Noesis is bearish on oil for quite a while. I think oil's a better barometer for gold than anything, including CB's, but then I'm not a particularly knowledgable investor. Just try to look at fundamentals and oil is that for PM investors. I am starting to wonder about a conspiracy to keep PM's down. I especially like the theory about the US Treasury using supercomputers and derivatives to manipulate markets...I really do wonder.

tolerant 1-a gulp to ya' and our next president, Al Gore. Saw him on TV. I think I saw one of his hands move while he was talking. Where's Gerry Ford when ya' need him?

But I'll end the discussion with two words illustrating my point: Pet Rocks. ; )

98/07/29 18:00:30 2.64S 138.86E 33.0 6.6Ms
IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA

The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: A strong earthquake occurred ON IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA about 125 miles ( 200 km ) west of Jayapura at 12:01 PM MDT today, Jul 29, 1998 ( Jul 30 at 3:01 AM local time in East Indonesia ) . A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.6 WAS COMPUTED FOR THIS EARTHQUAKE. The magnitude and location may change slightly as additional data are received from other seismograph stations. This earthquake is approximately 200 miles ( 330 km ) west of the July 17 magnitude 7.1 earthquake which generated a tsunami in the Sissano, Papua New Guinea area, killing at least 1,600 people and causing extensive damage. No reports of damage or casualties have been received at this time from today's earthquake; however, it may have caused damage due to its location and size.

Waves Could Crash West Coast
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/science/DailyNews/waves980729.html

I will quietly sit back and watch the two horsemen of the cactus.

Wait a minute! Wait a minute! I thought we were only talking about a FIGURATIVE tsunami from the east!

Let's see. Last night September silver was rising on the overnight markets and we had a drop during the day. This night we have it slowly sinking....

I'll alert the media.

First off, I would like to remind everyone that I RULE when it
comes to calling Junior Mining Stocks based in Sudbury, Ontario.

Second, I apologize for being so tetchy of late. I had someone
posting for me while I was attending to business and they couldn't quite get my style down. Seemed a little too desultory and condescending without the redeeming solecisms and spooneriffics.

Here is the news, and don't ask questions:

Gold is going to do this over the next few weeks ( tracing finger
in the air ) . Then, later, it will do some of this ( different pattern ) .
Finally, it will do this, but you will be out by that time if you
listen and follow my instructions ( ignore Disney, he has trouble
peeling a kiwifruit and having anything left to eat ) :

Buy gold on Monday if it goes up $2.00 on Friday.
If it goes up less than $2.00 tomorrow, wait three days and
I will have more information.

Thanks.

Gold to $325 by 11/11.
EB - How do you make macrons again?

What were three intact little blue eggs yesterday, are today three fuzzy little chicks who, upon hearing any sound close by that might be mommy, all strain their heads upwards, necks extended, and yellow beaks wide open in a silent cry for the one true imperative:

Food

I like them

Yes

Gold must go up or I'm pumpernickel. I need about $350/oz.

98/07/29 07:14:24 32.25S 71.08W 50.7 6.2Mb
NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE

Jonesy - well there's a little leeway on the Cascadia event - 300 to 600 years cycle. I think the last event ( 1700 ) was a 9.0 ( I'll have to go check on that )

gogold - thanks. Petals at your feet...

Thank you, sir.

~?P?
Macs use a keyboard approach ( I think ) .
In notepad - I just press the Alt and then while keeping it down press the appropriate three digit code: Alt-145 = 
Other word processing programs can let you assign "special" characters.

Rob wrote:
" ( RJ and Gold ) RJ, are your "mixed feelings" about the gold market due to a change in Monex's customers? Instead of buying gold to trade it, are they now buying gold to take delivery? At the margin. Gold's fundamentals are currently the same as they have been, yes? Or, has a very persuasive client talked to you about why he is buying gold?

Rob -

I don't have a clue what you mean. I'm still mostly short gold. Some clients choose to leverage gold long, but I very rarely play it that way, depends on the rest of the portfolio. Most of the gold I sell is for delivery. Platinum and silver give the volatility necessary to trade.

I think gold will do nothing this year.

The specter of further CB sales or leasing through the end of the year will cast an uneasy pall over the shiny yellow market, only to lift in January, 1999.

Not even 3-2-5

Huh uh

OK

So is Mama Mockingbird going to come back and sit on top of these little fuzzy chicks?

Their necks dont look like they can take too much strain.

When do they start cheeping at all hours of the night?

I need to know.

Indeedy

thanks. ( Papal hand motion )

I appreciate your offer. You can FTP a few years worth of gold data to:

sagetalk.com

no need for user id or password

in the /pub/jamestown directory.

I'll download and delete immediately. As I mentioned last PM, what periods of time would you say the most manipulation of gold price has taken place? Would help in hypothesis testing. Thanks!

Mockingbirds, next to Mississippi kites and maniraptors, are the baddest birds in the sky. Probably best to let Mama Nature rule the roost. Duck!

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairmen Greenspan gave his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the House banking panel on July 21-22, 1998. His commentary may be summarized as:

THE US STOCK MARKET IS RUNNING AMOK;
THE ASIAN CRISIS IS RUNNING AMOK;
WE'VE GOT SERIOUS PROBLEMS, SHIRLEY,
Now the Gold Standard on the other hand

History tells us that a "significant" market correction is inevitable, but when the crash may come is anyone's guess, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Wednesday as he resumed testimony in his
Humphrey-Hawkins report to Congress.

In 1967 Economic Consultant Greenspan published a now very famous report called "GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM." Within only six years of Mr. Greenspan's insightful and prophetic observations, the precious metals markets exploded to astronomical values. Obviously, HIS COMMENTS DID NOT
CAUSE the gold price to rise - however, his keen observation HERALDED WHAT WAS TO COME. Let's see what happened in the precious metals market during the six years after his very monumental pronouncements in 1967.

- Gold soared about 400% from $35/oz to over $175/oz.

- Silver more than doubled in value from $1.29 to over $2.60/oz.

- Gold Stocks as measured by TSE Mines Index rose more than 350%.

This begs the question. Was U.S. Fed Chairman's seemingly innocuous aside about the GOLD STANDARD just an off the cuff remark an innocent aside or is it indeed another prophetic pronouncement of the future?! The real answer might make you RICH!

YOU BE THE JUDGE see the report. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky072598.html

I wanted to verify the Greenspan story also. As education could you please advise where/how you found the verification? TIA

Special symbols that I add to text with my Mac are displayed fine - on my Mac. Because Macs know how to interpret the underlying ascii characters.
BUT
Those with PCs can't see them as we see them. They come out as garbage.
SO
Your tests and my tests need to be read by a Wintel machine to see
if what we send is what they get.

Dear wintel folks,
Do you see a tilde over the n in pion?
Do you see accents over the e's in rsum?
Do you see upside down question mark before Question?
Do you see a degree symbol before the F in 98.6F
Do you see a trademark symbol after Macintosh
Do you see a copyright symbol before  Squirrel?

We may be lucky and share symbols.
But experience shows it may be otherwise.

When you did
Alt-145 = 
I see the a and e tacked together. I get the same
by holding down the option key then tapping the quote/accent key
Like so 

To get the tilde over a letter I hold down option while tapping n
then I type the letter as I normally would - thus  
For accents I do option e then the letter - thus   

Do you see what I see?

Thus if I want three spaces between these numbers.
If I type them normally I get 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
With option spaces I get 1234567
Hmmm - let's see if it worked.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980729/newmont_ne_2.html

Yes!

Is going to lose his arse.

http://biz.yahoo.com/snp/980729/glg_min_in_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980729/co_getchel_1.html

To happen. Stocks will be killed in the next three months. Al l Stocks.

The August gold futures contract FND is Friday. I still estimate that the shorts need to get spot gold to $285. This is a guess based on spot being around $284 for the June contract. $285 or $288 is not much different. Anyway, the shorts need spot gold to be DOWN.

The longs are not organized...I think...and can not mount any effort to cause the shorts to cover by running gold up on FND. Well, how do you solve that problem? You call Hep...the cat or rat or whatever to come to the Internet and give some great advice...

Now every lurker out there and some regulars go long a few contracts tomorrow and Friday and the shorts are toast. F*, where are you when we need you? You could beg and plead on this site for such concerted effort to no avail but let someone you know not plant the seed that gold will rise and it's off to the races.

I JUST LOVE IT!

With due respect to the Hep...he warned about $2 here and there so don't blame him if this does not pan out. Besides, if you invest based on the words of one you know not you deserve what you get...up or down.

I must say, however, I think the shorts may be in trouble anyway since gold rebounded today from it's lows. This just adds more fuel to the fire.

Ever thought of instructing your broker to go long on a contract IF, but only IF, say the December contract hits $300? Do you think you would be buying on the UP instead of DOWN. Set your own targets and STOPS...again...STOPS.

I just love human nature. Yes?

We watch this old or new gold market together. Yes?
Tom

Put your investments in cash. Bonds won't help. Utilities won't help. Take delivery of the physical, or go to cash.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980729/kinross_di_1.html

I sees 'em fine on my old 486mochine with Win95. But I sure heck can't ( don't know how ) to put 'em on the text i'm awritin'!!
Bye the bye can hardly wait to see how the Klinmeisters spin this latest 'bout "voluntary testimony". Interestin aint it how he dint volunteer till they ALMOST had him br the gonads!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980729/markets_pr_2.html

Some of you may have already bookmarked this site.
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/index.htm

You may have to type this in ( having trouble with paste )
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/index.htm

Quote from the url posted earlier:

"Murdy also said Newmont would not achieve its goal of cutting its long-term debt by $100 million by the end of this year. ``Our current view is that by the end of 1999 our debt will not climb appreciably,'' Murdy said.

The company's long-term debt stands at $1.2 billion. Included in the figure is a revolving credit of $300 million that Newmont wants to turn into long term debt. "

1.2 Billion debt; Hmmmmm --Well I guess I'll pass.

Scrub Jay Momma sits very close on her chicks, I forget what Mockers do, but I'll guess that Mockingbird Momma will sit on hers too, at least some of the time at first. Dad has to defend the property and find food. Mocker Momma may bring home some food too. In general baby birds must have a lot of meat for protein, fat, and hard parts, in this case it's mostly gonna be insects, worms, larvae etc. Maybe Mocker Dad will bring some vegetable stuff like berries later. If babies made a lot of noise at night I don't think they would survive very long. So I don't think you will hear a peep unless it's light and someone has just brought home some food. The chicks should fledge in a few weeks. The adults are going to keep on feeding and protecting them and for a while after that.

Later I'm gonna find the stuff you wrote about reporting requirements and ask you a few questions.

Thanks
not sam_A
just - sam

Remember when the POG spiked upward as the story of Clinton's Deformed Bubble hit the press? Well, what about now? Times change pretty quick eh?
I think Clinton will have a tough time of it and he won't be able to hold it. I mean his Bubble will Burst cause he just can't hold it...can he?

The information you seek can be found at the following loction.


//www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/testimony/19980724.htm

With gold so solidy locked to the yen as of late ( see Disney's law ) it will be fun to see if the shorts/longs can drag all of asia around to get a few bucks out of thier options, cat or no cat.

What URL do you use for quakes etc? I have a friend at Stanford working on precursor detection. I don't know how it would work under water, but it looks like he may have a possible system for the dry ground.

Wednesday July 29, 7:05 pm Eastern Time

Cargo Backed Up at Busy US Harbors.

The problem stems in part from a dramatic increase in Asian imports, a result of the region's financial crisis. The higher-than-usual volume from Asia made June the busiest month ever at the Port of Long Beach, the nation's top port in annual cargo volume. The port processed 183,019 containers of cargo, a 10 percent increase over the same month last year. At the neighboring Port of Los Angeles, the country's second-busiest port, 246,277 containers came in, 16 percent more than last June.

Exports from the Port of Long Beach are down 17.6 percent in June. The number of empty containers heading back to Asia is up 87 percent. The numbers were similar at the Port of Los Angeles, where exports dropped 16 percent while outbound empties also were up 87 percent.

``Our trucks aren't delivering much to the harbor now to go to Asia. There's virtually no demand for westbound cargo,'' said Lund, the truck broker. ``The balance of payments is huge in that situation. I knew we were going to have that when I saw the dollar strengthening and the Asian economies going down.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980729/cargo_crun_1.html


HighRise

The money coming out will burn up this economy.

I have come to the conclusion that we are about to enter into a period of total illiquidity both in commodities as well as equities! Lets face it what the Gold market is telling us is that there are fewer buyers than sellers and unlike the dow where the powers to be simply buy up a couple stocks to create the impression that the market is ok the shorters understand that increased selling creates the lack of liquidity needed to push gold much lower! How low is low? Ask the shorters how much money they want to make. Until the gold bugs of the world including the producers take a stand we are screwed. The producers should indeed produce coins and market them now! Come on Mr. Monk put your money where your mouth is!

Anyone holding stock better do a gut check. Hell is about to invade earth for the next 3 months.

Painful to mention this...but GC98Q is down to 289.

You are probably still gonna hear Dad singing all night long. He may have gotten sloshed from imbibing fermented berries. Namaste'

I agree it will be interesting. I have the utmost respect for Disney but I don't think the Yen has squat to do with the price of gold. It's the almighty US$. Foreign money out of the US markets and US$ down. Pure and simple.

US$ up...gold down. Gold really is a currency for all financial institutions...they just won't tell you the truth.

Tom

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

HighRise

Without the manipulation of the POG at this important time in history, the momentum and emotional investors would have gotton onto the Gold Bandwagon simply cause they are naive investors. The smart investors have been accumulating quietly.

If money is leaving the DOW stocks, then where is it going? It looks like it might be sitting in cash. And CNBC, is still pushing the public to move into the small caps.

My best guess is that "DOW" specialty Mutual funds and the like are beginning to milk profits to the master colluders. Pretty easy to do and when you're talking Billions of dollars of market cap disappearing ... virtually anybody can be bought and if that person is too honest to be corrupt... well you can make an educated guess as to what happens.

http://www.drudgereport.com/
The red light is on!

HighRise

You are right of course...in the long run. Nevertheless thr guys in the pits have been using the yen to trade by. For so long as they adhere to that the yen has everything to do with the price. If they decided to use the height of Janet Reno's hemline ( does she have one? ) then that would have everything to do with the price.

If the shorts screw around and break the pit thinking away from the yen, that might not be so bad.

The stock market decided to chase "growth stocks" and forget about present earnings. This allowed them to soar to great heights unhampered by everyday trivia like p/e ratios.

If someone had shaken them lose from false reality a long time ago there wouldn't come to be so many crying in the streets as there will be.

Be that as it may, for the long run of the bull market their thinking had everything to do with prices.

For the moment Disney's law rules. Down with Disney's law!

TYoung: That's a buy-stop ( above the market ) . I know of one "Market Wizard" who uses only that method when he wishes to go long. There are some drawbacks; and all markets don't accept.

If you're interested in getting a coin out email me at cdevoto@abts.net

@TYoung: I agree that the US buck has more to do with the POG than the Yen. That's cause it's not just the Nippers who own Tbills/Bonds but Europeans as well. Do you know whay they might need to wait until Jan/1/99 to unload them?

GC98Q bouncing up a bit to 289.2

Reaching criticality. We either hold the line here or.....

If or when the shorts have to cover there is not going to be anyone looking at the Yen. Until then maybe this view holds water...maybe not.

Trex...a...er...well...EURO

Tom

If producers continue to reduce production costs, does that imply
that supply/demand equilibrium will continue to reduce gold prices?

Looks like some companies are claiming production prices below $100/ounce.

@The Hatt: I don't like Munk either. The guy is all talk and little action. If you say you're going to do something, then do it. Otherwise, you're a liar!!!! It's as simple as that. ABX should get rid if him real quick. Munk is no longer a gold bug in my mind. After all, the guy sold most his his gold holdings in Barrick.

In recent Congressional testimony Alan Greenspan said outright that the CBs would act if gold rose sharply and their weapon of choice would be leasing. Since much European gold is already leased I think Alan is saying the US would start leasing gold in a big way if the price should rise beyond the $350 level that people like Jude Wanniski believe it should sell at. No mention of sales.

There we have it right from the horse's mouth. Leasing is the preferred mechanism to control POG. I don't believe Greenspan is interested in keeping POG below $300, but there is little doubt he would fight any large increase tooth and nail by leasing huge quantities of bullion to the shorts at firesale rates.

The traders may have been using Yen/Gold
lately as a constant ratiio, but looking at a
chart for 1998 of Yen vs Gold, you will see a
constant uptrend of lows from 37000 in Jan to
the present, with apparent resistance ( 3
reversals ) in the 42000 area. The current
uptrend of lows will cross 42000 in August.
Something is going to happen with this
trading tool, and soon. There's nothing
special about 42000 Y/oz - it was higher last
year than this. Here's where to get a good
plot of the relationship:

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

THE ANTI-GOLD CONTINGENT LED BY EX FED GOVERNOR WAYNR ANGELL WANT THE CBs TO KEEP POG AT A LEVEL SUCH THAT ONLY THE MOST EFFICIENT PRODUCERS CAN EARN A REASONABLE PROFIT. SO THE MORE MINING COMPANIES CUT COSTS, THE LOWER MANY IN THE CB COMMUNITY WOULD LIKE TO PUSH POG. SORT OF SELF DEFEATING ISN'T IT?

THE MINING INDUSTRY MUST LEARN TO CUT PRODUCTION AS WELL AS COSTS.

View? My view is that the price of gold has been artificialy joined at the hip to the yen since the intervention. That's about the same time a number of shorts in the currency and gold markets got burnt. Shorting activity ( as sometimes evidenced by the "goblin" ) has been much subdued since then. The fairly level price of around 41250 yen per ounce of gold has held pretty steady since then, but it is by no means locked in concrete. Other "laws" have held at other times in the recent history of gold, but they never hold:

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html

Here are some already plotted out in several currencies:
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html

Earl - good on ya mate. You're in! That play could be lucrative and I may do it too. I think it should be easy to double your money there.........maybe ;- ) . But mine accumulates tax free........got that working for me.......tee-hee. I like those IRA's......uh huh.
Blooper - time will tell......good luck to ya. Thank's for the info..........but I know the devil well.....................and he is a summer guy, not fall ( October ) . Billy Joel is an October guy............... ;- ) 5717??? hmmmmmmmm.... "you may be right but you may be wrong"...
Hep - which one is the macron??  ( that one? ) . I will have to wait 'till I get home to look up my ascii charts. I use the character symbol cut&paste technique while at work. go to programs, accessories, character map, and then copy&cut&paste.
All you mac users are not the only ones that can use the funky symbols. I do PC and I can do ALL you can do. You too MacAurator..... ( smilethingy ) .
Disney - I would NEVER boycott Disney...........I really LOVE Disney. I kow-tow to Mickey whenever I see him. And now I can get a free ticket to the park when I go to the annual meetings. Life is good. Thanks for the grocery list today.....it reminded me to pick up a few things. Now, how am I gonna double my money buyin RANGY?
MockingBirdyBoy - I wouldn't go against the 3-2-5.......hee hee hee ( big smile thingy ) . And silver STILL pisses me off. What a dog metal......damn stuff.
away...from work.


anyone else want some of the 2g's challenge.....what about all you Sunshine Mining fans?? And where is that Sheller dude??

Your money better flee the market too. Stocks will lose massively when joe sixpack loses his ass.

9 per cent. We get back to that boys noone will own stocks.

Yen making headway vis-a-vis the Dollar...if correlations are correct...
gold should get a boost.

And 2 scary bear eyes are looking back. End of October; 5717

Greenspan and Rubin like constancy. Constant rate of inflation ( if any ) , constant growth rate, constant exchange rates, etc.

If the price of gold were held fairy steady in $US as well as yen as well as Euros, etc. It would not only give a constancy in exchage rates but would, in a way, give a certian exchange rate status to gold. A sort of unofficial monetary atatus. If this could be done thru lease rate adjustment by various central banks....

Such a state of affairs woukd not be good for goldbugs. Gold was of little use as a trading vehicle while it was held at $35 an ounce nor would it be if it were held at $290 an ounce, unofficialy or officially either one.

Since the last intervention the cost of an ounce of gold has held very flat with few rumors about CB "sales" bith in dollars and yen. Perhaps they've reached the target level of their experiment.

Will fail, go into free fall. I say free fall. Looking for more shorts. Pick a brokerage.

Meet stark reality. America's bubble is so dangerous, it will take years to remedy. Made fun of Japan. You are there.

Savage - it is good to see you posting again. My own handle was inspired in part by yours and what it represents. To answer your question, "CLONE: Do you have extensive data base re: 'gold leads currencies by one to three years'," I must regretably answer "No."

By any chance were you attemting to respond to my stated observation, "One consistancy that I would mention is that I am beginning to recognize that the price of gold ( in any currency ) basically forshadows the general trend by one to three years. Thoughts???" - Date: Tue Jul 28 1998 21:23

If you were, I think it is appropriate to explain that my mention of currency was intended to more fully describe the so called "price of gold" in any given country. The trend that I refered to was intended to mean inflation or deflation, as per the subject of my post. I apologize if the words I used were confusing, although I don't think I am doing any better now. Thank you though, for your intriguing and "thoughtful" response.

Gollum - I learned a couple things from your response last night. It made a lot of sense. - Thanks.

Mozel - It is good to see you back, too! You were definately missed, as are, I think, the 404's.

Going home now... 'nite all!
-c

that is what it will take to keep the POG down. IMHO Thank you for
verifying that we have not been just whistling up a tree about
lease rates.

Your Disney will be decimated in October.

Nothing personal, so will everyone elses.

Disney is a typical Gay loving company. I hear their movies aren't very good.

Throw up.

The theme of the latest Disney Kid's movie is about the victory of the Chinese Army and how a father trained ( his daughter ) and the girl wanted to be a man.

Michael tolerates him for the bottom line. Unfortunately it is beginning to show. Goodnight all.

Old Gold: As Trader Vic posited earlier, the present leasing game is predicated upon continued solidarity among all of the CBs. As time and the Euro progress, we may find the Europeans less inclined to continue the charade. In fact, it may be in their interest to begin recalling some lease positions and put some additional pressure on the US. The US dollar certainly has the most to lose under present conditions.

Additional considerations:

1. As recently as one year ago, PM leasing was not well understood or properly appreciated for its sheer magnitude. That is no longer true. The leasing game is presently known and widely understood. Also well understood are the serious ramifications of the business, should demand suddenly begin to increase. Ponzi schemes have finite limits and this one is near its full potential.

2. Should there be a break in CB solidarity related to leasing, the US would find itself in the unenviable position of bearing a larger share of burden. ..... Interestingly, I have seen nothing on subject related to the Fed. We don't really know what their present exposure is related to leasing.

Leasing of US gold stores should generate some questions as to its general legality. Suitability of the proposal should also raise some eyebrows given the depth of understanding that presently prevails.

In short, wider participation by the US in PM leasing may very well advertise the PM situation to a broader audience than they would care to expose. And destroy its effectiveness in the process. ...... But, if congress should turn a blind eye to the Fed's activity, then of course all bets are off.

I never thought I'd ever say Disney sucks, but there it is. I have boycotted them for 8 months or so. China. Well, shall we say is an evil country. The red scorpion. Our trailer trash president taught em how to MIRV. Maybe one will hit him and his wonderful wife.

Hope youse guys take the physical. If you buy a stock, it may go down the toilet , along with all other stocks.

Silver should be nearing its correction low in the next few days. At this point the 5.55 area is of little significance, the market should easily drop though 5.50. Buy Sept silver at 5.30-5.35 and Dec silver 5.35 - 5.40 use a 5.25 stop close only. If 5.25 is taken out on a close it is likely a short term bullish move is dead.

rhody ( @ Old Gold: Do you think AG will lease gold free? Lets take it one step further. How about AG paying to lease Gold..... Talk about a dependancy being built. Withdrawal would be called WAR!

Since Feb 96, the forces of evil have had the field all to themselves. By virtue of a worldwide, co-ordinated attack the almagamation of traders, CBs and some mining companies have managed to depress the price of gold from 420 to 290. 130 bucks.

During that time they have had a worldwide boom ( Japan excepted ) and ( reportedly ) low inflation. The bubble in US equity markets has produced a level of paper wealth and prosperity, unseen in the lives of most of us. All of the good things that could happen for the official paper hangers is now included in the mix.

All of which begs the question: Is it reasonable to assume that they will have it all their way for the next 2 years???? Even if the Asian situation were to stabilize and deteriorate no further, it seems to me US balance of trade alone would begin to tear at the invincibility of the dollar and our previously unassailable position in the world.

The Bill and Bob intervention show will not keep speculators on the ropes much longer. The market is tired. The big boys can buy all the Yen they want but third quarter earnings are doomed. It will take Japan Inc. years to climb out of It's wost recession since WW2. $US/Yen will test 143 tomorrow, if the overnight session fails to bring it above 142. My bet is there will be Dow/Gold/Yen stop hunters out in the morning loaded for BEAR!

Orca: The Japanese have virtually set the precedent for such a thing. "Here's some Yen, please take it". With their non-existent interest rates, it amounts to the same thing. ....... CBs may detest gold but not that much.

After watching silver fallling like a stone today and tonight I have come to the following conclusion. The PM markets are so corrupt and manipulated that investing in metals is a lost cause. I am also now convinced that nothing will change this until as long as CB's control the worlds economy. Gold and silver will continue to fall in value until
the world economy collapses. When the game is finally over, only one thing will be worth more than Gold and Silver and that's Guns and ammo.
It's been nice watching this forum for the last few years but as of tommorrow morning, I'll be moving out of gold & silver and into iron and lead.

if you ever get to Berea, KY,jest ask for Raliegh, and say I know that maniac friend of your son's from Long Island...they will not shoot you and they will feed you well...TRUTH MY FRIEND...

THESE ARE THE OFFICIAL WINNING POWERBALL NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 1998!

09 15 28 30 44 and the POWERBALL IS 22!!

I PICKED 'EM AND I OWN 'EM!

READ 'EM AND WEEP FELLOW GOLDMEISTERS, AS I CASH 'EM IN TOMORROW MORNING FOR AN ANNUITY OF $10 MILLION/YEAR FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS!

BETTER BUY YOUR MOUNTIES TONIGHT, BECAUSE AFTER I CASH IN MY TICKET TOMORROW---THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE---AS I INTEND TO BUY 'EM ALL!!

PS. ANY GOLD BUG WHO HAS LOST HIS SHIRT HOLDING GOLD OR GOLD MINING STOCKS OVER THE LAST 16 YEARS CAN JUST SUCK AIR! TOUGH LUCK ALL YOU NAIVE GOLD-BUG SUCKA'S! SHOULDA' BEEN SMART LIKE ME AND INVESTED ALL YOUR WORTHLESS FIAT CURRENCY IN REAL ESTATE AND POWERBALL TICKETS INSTEAD OF JUNK SILVER AND GOLD! HAR! HAR! HAR!

YOUR FORMER GOLD-BUG FRIEND--P.M. UNK

( Well, my lack of experience has cost me. It appears as if the charts I've concocted do provide valid leading indicators; however, I have read them wrongly. Blown it -- but with enthusiasm! Anyway, I still don't think it's over for silver; just shaken confidence. )

What are your thoughts on the Comex silver drawdowns? Thanks.

In 7 trading days the S&P has wiped out a months worth of gains.

I was born in October 20, 1959. Alot lot of reaily interesting things have happen in October since then.

Good night

FOR RELIEVING THE TAX BURDEN ON THE FINE CITIZENS OF THIS STATE TO THE TUNE OF $15 MILLION! YOUR INSATIABLE GREED AND STUPIDITY IS GREATLY APPRECIATED! PLEASE FEEL FREE TO PLAY AGAIN NEXT WEEK!

Your friends in Packer-land!

Is comparing our bubble and the 1929 crash. Look out boys. We could be looking at a depression.

The comparisons are eerie.

Did ya catch those long lines of hopeful powerballers eagerly standing in line in 110 degree heat to buy their chance for wealth and fame? Cheeeze! Haven't seen lines like that since----THE GREAT DEPRESSION! Sign of things to come?

Date: Wed Jul 29 1998 21:38
Silverbaron ( TYoung, Gollum ) ID#288295:

Here's where to get a good
plot of the relationship: ( GOLD Vs YEN )

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

THANKS! for this GREAT plotting tool URL

One reason I doubt Y2K will be the end of the world is that it will be the most anticipated emergency ever. By this time next year, "What are you doing to prepare?" will be the cover story of every magazine, and topic of every talk show. The hot new status symbol will no longer be a portfolio full of mutual funds, it will be a bedroom full of food, water, camping gear and ammunition.

With everyone armed to the teeth, the crime rate will drop to zero. The major Y2K danger will be the shutdown of TV and death by boredom.

Because computerized public services such as water and power may break down, I think persons who will suffer most will be National Guard troops.
Their orders will be something like, put your sleeping bag and emergency rations here by this valve, and when we holler, turn it; you can go home as soon as the new computer arrives, in a year or two, we hope.

The huddled masses were all standing in line in 110 degree heat to BUY GOLD instead of worthless paper? Sobering thought is it not?

Which company should interest Newmont? Wednesday July 29, 6:46 pm Eastern Time
Newmont eyeing acquisition opportunities
DENVER, July 29 ( Reuters ) - Newmont Mining Corp continues to look for acquisition opportunities in this low gold stock price environment, Chief Executive Officer Ron Cambre said on Wednesday.
``We continue to look at opportunities,'' Cambre said during a teleconference call to discuss the company's second quarter results.
``We have a group of people who have a full-time task of seeking out opportunities. We hope they're aggressive enough,'' he said when asked whether the company was aggressively looking for a merger target or just prepared to take advantage if a situation arose.
Lower gold prices have put pressure on gold company stocks. Newmont shares closed at 20-1/16, down 8/16. The company's 52-week high stands at 45-14/16.
Newmont recently acquired Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp and speculation has arisen that the low gold price could spark more mergers in the industry.

By then, it will already be TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE! Ironically, Y2K judgment will begin at the homes of those who are now most able to prepare for it, and because of human nature, won't!

trader vic: Thanks for your post on how the CB's control the price of gold ( and thus the US dollar ) . I think part of the problem is that there are alot of CB's that have enough clout that they can 'lease' gold without delivering it to a bullion warehouse. I don't know if there is a way one could find out how much gold is really leased and held somewhere, and how much stays in the CB's, but I think there would be a strong temptation to keep the gold at the CB's, since they are not really allowed to sell it without advance notice.
So -- we assume that the bigger CB's can get away with these 'virtual' gold loans. Then -- one day, the 'jig is up' and for one reason or other, the CB gold supply dries up. Then -- those bullion houses will be left high and dry. Those that survive will insist on physical delivery of gold for any future trades. F Veneroso has stated that this has already happened -- probably to a minimal degree.
It will be in the interest of the CB's ( and ours ) to allow the price to gold to rise slowly when it does, so let us hope that when the fat lady sings, they still have some reserves left.

As a holder of physical gold,silver,and platinum and
gold stocks I have to agree,reluctantly,with the point of view
,often expressed here,that a washout will occur in metals and
precious metal stocks when the equities market collapses.
About a year ago when someone suggested that the decline
from 340 to 320 POG, and the resulting damage in PM stocks occurred,
that this represented the destruction of an entire asset class I
scoffed.However in retrospect that is exactly what seems to be taking
place. When this board becomes quiet and most of us Gold Bugs are
preoccupied with simple survival Gold will rise in a way that leaves
most of us behind.They got most of my fiat now so they can go suck
eggs.I'm buying more physical and completely agree that there will
be a magnificent opportunity ahead to buy gold stocks;it just ain't
now.IMHO
Happy Trading and Holding!

As a holder of physical gold,silver,and platinum and
gold stocks I have to agree,reluctantly,with the point of view
,often expressed here,that a washout will occur in metals and
precious metal stocks when the equities market collapses.
About a year ago when someone suggested that the decline
from 340 to 320 POG, and the resulting damage in PM stocks occurred,
that this represented the destruction of an entire asset class I
scoffed.However in retrospect that is exactly what seems to be taking
place. When this board becomes quiet and most of us Gold Bugs are
preoccupied with simple survival Gold will rise in a way that leaves
most of us behind.They got most of my fiat now so they can go suck
eggs.I'm buying more physical and completely agree that there will
be a magnificent opportunity ahead to buy gold stocks;it just ain't
now.IMHO
Happy Trading and Holding!

Jonesy - Drawdowns tell me sometime in the future there will be a silver bull market. As far as trading the market picking swings and possible highs and lows they are useless. The fundametals were great at 7.50 and some investors are holding a $2 loss. I thought they were great too, but I was short at 7.50, based on charts. I believe the fundamentals of any market are already in the price at any given time.

I found it interesting yesterday that the market drop was being blamed on Monica's confession. So confession may be good for the soul but not for the stock market. I guess she alone can blow over this house of cards. Its pleasant to watch BC sweat and wonder if a little sex was worth the scandal. Unfortunately it will be a He Says She Says situation and unless the economy tanks big time Joe Blow won't give a rat's rump whether BC and Monica had sex or whether BC lied about it or tried to get her to lie about it. I was talking to a client yesterday who doesn't care because the economy is so good. I kind of horse laughed his naave belief that BC had anything at all to do with the allegedly robust economy. Never has a president been so lucky for so long with so little real contribution to anything except moral degredation.

You are right on WindyLake. This market is indeed gutwrenching for a goldbug who has invested steadily over the past three years in gold funds only to have my colleages invest in growth funds and double their money while mine was declining by 50%. Hopefully there is justice on the horizon. Maybe the tarnish will leave our metals and soon.

In Ft Worth this week, several water lines broke and as a result of no air conditioning in buildings, everyone went home early. Although y2k does not affect plumbing much, it shows what happens when one major utility craps out. i.e. When air conditioning/heating goes, much of the rest shuts down. When the production line at GM stops, factories down the line shut down. The network is so intricate that it won't take much to force many operations to go manual. This means a much slower and less efficient operation, if at all. It won't take much.

JTF: Would it not be better that the CBs should lose their gold reserves completely?

With all gold in the open market, the CBs would serve no further function. Governments would be forced to assume their rightful position among men; that is as beggars. Men and women would decide the disposition of their resources without interference. Public offices would be filled by lot. With the loss of special privilege and outside sources of compensation, they would hold no special attraction. Much like the jury system.

After all if gold is really money, why fool around with an intermediary who has proven to be untrustworthy?