Just kidding you about the dress. Guess the kept it for a reason.

I noticed Disney was down today. How did that happen. Didn't you buy some yesterday?

I noticed Disney was down today. How did that happen. Didn't you buy some yesterday?

This guy RJ kind of reminds me of Heavy hitter, what with the spelling, grammar, and the hickup like style. And he"s ornery as hell just like ole Heavy. Does everything have to be a conspiracy here at Kitco?

OK maybe someone can help me get this straight.Thanks to Rody and others who have responded on this topic before.

Gold is leased at a %, % of what? Spot? Say 2%, 2% of 300 or $6.00? Are they turning lose of an ounce of gold for $6.00? Is the rest collateralized at all?

At the same time mines are forward selling for $400/ounce?

Does this add up in a reasonable way somewhere down the line?

blooper: EB is one of our most respected posters -- like RJ, and Oldman. I am an investor, not traders like they are. They know the cycles of the markets much better than I, and markets have a cyclicity of their own. I think this one has responded to the AG shock treatment. I agree with you that the market bulls days are numbered -- but I am thinking a month at the longest -- so there is little risk for me. I just choose the strongest select funds. I have no intention of selling my gold fund holdings in a month. What I have left there is long term. When I think gold is about to rally I will buy more gold mutual funds.
If the markets go up for a while, you will respect EB a bit more, I think.

The reason for goldprice to go lower and lower might be because you live in America where the Dollar is getting stronger and stronger. If you live in Turkey for example you paid for one ounce of gold on Aug. 1996 30.000.000 Lire. Now you have to pay for one ounce of gold 80.000.000 Lire. Here are some examples of a few other countries: INDIA: Dec. 97 one ounce gold 11.000 Rupia Now " " " 12.500 " INDONESIA: Aug. 97 one ounce gold 800.000 Rupia Now " " " 4000.000 " South Africa Dec. 97 one ounce gold 1390 Rand Now " " " 1800 " We could include other countries like Russia, Japan. Singapore, South Korea, Pakistan and more. We have to conclude that our Dollar cannot continue rising and rising. One day it will be for us to have gold, much better than holding on to the Dollar. What for example if people start investing in Yens or the new European currency and start dumping the Dollar. Then holders of the Yen or European currencies will see the value of gold go down and we will see the price go up.

to all
A review of alternatives for comparison of currencies.
The Big Mac is infantile.. the chicken standard didnt
fly .. As salty pointed out seasonality confounds the
fresh veggie standard ..
However the One HNG standard seems to hold up
pretty well .. ( I could think of simpler names for
this standard but I think that would be the last you
would see of me ) ..

Information provided by Ersel from the Midwest indicates
that for what you would spend from such a depraved purpose
in say Kansas City would buy you an hour with a net ball
team of local beauties ..
regarding quality .. anybody see "Devils Advocate"
or "two days in the valley" .. remember that tall
blonde actress in those films .. her name escapes me
for the moment .. but she's from Bellville .. a
relatively UNfashionable surburb about 20 minutes from
me by car .. she would be typical of the upper end
of the quality spectrum.
Thus .. I conclude that the rand is severely UNDER
valued and I would not expect any furthur assistance
from a weak rand in local mining profits... they are
already through the roof anyway.

It is encouraging to see that the masses of Kitcoites now appreciate your wisdom experience and your willingness to share. Much appreciated.

There is much confusion hereabouts regarding forward sales. I have seen the question posed more than once, "How can they sell gold forward for $400 per ounce?" Some people on this site believe that a gold producer can go out today and find someone who will pay over market for the gold. This view shows a fundamental lack of understanding on exactly what a short is. Forward sales are shorts.

A producer can sell gold forward at $400 only when gold is at $400. The agreement is to deliver the gold at some date in the future. All these mines you hear about who have sold gold at $400, sold it a couple years ago. They are only delivering the metal today. Not a bad deal, eh? Gold is below $300 and they are delivering gold they were paid $400 for 2 years ago. This is forward sales. This is hedging production. This is adding the crucial component to any business: predictability of revenue. This is why many mines, whose cost of production is higher than current prices, are still open. They had the good sense to sell their production forward and lock in the high prices before the mine down the road beat them to it and forces the price down. This is a good thing yet many folks on these pages seem to vilify those that would practice what good business savvy dictates.

Some ask about collateral for such loans. Does anybody here actually believe that any bank, of any sort, would let "real money" go out the door without the loan being secured? The borrowers are the producers. They dig the gold up. They repay the loan with gold, from production, or purchased from the open market as part of an active hedging program. What if they go out of business? Who cares? The reserves are proven. Same as a mortgage, dont pay it, the bank will take your house. I think we can all agree that there are more than 8000 tons of proven gold reserves just waiting to be dug.

Can you dig it?

I knew that you could.

I would like to be the first to nominate APH AND RJ or RJ AND APH in random order as those worthy of this honor in light of their significant, unstinting and selfless sharing of valuable information over an extended period of time. Theirs is an exemplary contribution!

Re: Bill Clinton - for a lot of people it isn't that he slept with a bunch of woman or anything like that, it's much more simple - I think a lot of people just don't like him and this is a convenient excuse to give him a bunch of grief. Washington certainly has it's share of sexual indiscretion, but most people are a lot cooler at covering it up. I mean, if you're gonna do it, at least do it with a little style, pick a woman who can handle it, not some dorky intern bimbo. No points for style or smarts on that one.

Personally, I don't care what he does - but I do resent Mr. Clinton making the office of President look bad. I say all of the above with respect for the office, but not the man. I wish the media would refer to him as "Mr. Clinton" when they talk about this stuff instead of "The President".

And for Greenspan, I disagree completely with the comment that was made saying he was bought and paid for. I mean, watch the man speak, he doesn't come across like anyone who has a political bone in his body. The man obviously worries about the economy and seems to put a lot of time into paying attention to what his staff has to say. I'm there for Greenspan. He's a tough cookie. A few years ago I dated one of the phd's that works for Greenspan and she always had good things to say about him.

I know the girl
Can't remember her name either
Great talent
And that is just when she's standing there

Major Babe

Golly

Away..........tokickdirtwiththetoeofmyshoeinabashfulmanner

If sharing be the criterion for kitco hall of fame I should like to nominate: sharefin, preacher, mozel ( where is that rascal? ) , Schippi & Crusty, in no particular order. Oh, yes, and Russell.

vandersoo: I have long been puzzled by the rise of the dollar and the fall of gold ( in dollars ) . Many would agree with the conclusion that part of the problem with the SEAsian crisis was the rising dollar. To be fair, part of the fall in gold last October was due to deflationary effects. My intuitive guess is that the European CB's started the process going in a big way when they started selling/leasing gold to prepare for the Euro launch. The dollar/gold carry trade -- sell/lease gold , and buy US treasuries. Keep the dollar strong so that EURO countries can sell their goods cheaply. This method of selling/leasing gold then developed a life all of its own, unfortunately. And you need to keep selling/leasing gold to keep the current gold price, let alone make it drop some more. So -- this situation is unstable, and reversal is inevitable. The speculators and the CB's must be tempted to keep gold going down, because if gold goes up significantly, that would be the end of the dollar/gold trade.

Hey, snowy, whydja get me started?
And......SDR_er, aurophile, Nick@C, $ilverbaron, DA, Special mention for lifetime achievement: webmaster Bart.

There are so many posters generous with their knowledge, kinda humbling for this cabin-boy to be rubbing shoulders with ya. Thanks for not throwing me to the sharks.

P.S. Iceberg dead ahead.

Does anyone think there will be another "ping" in Asia? It seems Japan and Korea have already bottomed and are beginning to inch up. If a downturn begins to occur in US it seems it would only be intensified by capital fleeing US and going back to Asia. And they would love it. All the anti-American sentiment out there would keep it tumbling. I still think this currency crisis is like playing the card game Old Maid. No one wants it and it gets passed around but the US will end up with it. Goldbugs are so beaten down that we wonder if Gold will ever rise again, but when it does we'll all wonder why we ever worried. It seems to me Gold has bottomed and will move up much more than 300 before the year is out. The sentiment is awful for Gold right now and has been, but that can change in a day.

Salty -

I join in your heartfelt nominations, particularly Russell. The hall of fame needs some low key types to balance the egos. Russell is known for the calm effect of his presence. Quite apart from Rocco who should only be uncaged for food, exercise, and vengeance.

Ah, but you are of modest Salt indeedy.
Aurator, JD, Fin who Shares
Under skies of the Southern Cross
All give us a different perspective
Viewed from a different angle
And, most importantly
They do it in a language
That is vaguely similar to our own.

This helps

snowbird: Yes -- I forgot about APH. Others to consider for runner-up are Mike Stewart and D.A. for their level-headed, steady analysis. Cyclist for stuff he does very much like APH but with a longer time period, Mike Sheller as our resident astute Astrologer, Gollum for his intellect, humor and intuition to get at the bottom of the matter, Mozel for his sharp legal wit who undoubtedly would have much to say about WJC's current troubles, aurator for his investigative bent and legal sense, Tortfeasor for his humor. All of these personalities can mesh when Kitco is running smoothly -- all thanks to Bart Kitner.

Despite today's little low volume relief trading rally in a few BIG CAP stocks ( DISNEY noticeably absent ) , the market internal and technical indicators of this market get WORSE by the day! If you doubt this, all you need do is read today's commentary by Herr Kaplan at his GOLD MINING OUTLOOK site! AD line sucks! NEW LOWS/NEW HIGHS keep expanding! 24% of NYSE stocks are now 20% or more below their recent highs while fully 35% of NASDAQ stocks are now 30% or more below their recent highs! Russell 2000 barely budged and is 13% BELOW its level at the start of the year establishing the fact to ever euphoric DIPSTERS that yes, Matilda, you CAN actually LOSE money in the stock market! VIX fell a full 3 points today indicating way too much complacency in the face of crumbling fundamentals and deteriorating technicals! PUT/CALL ratio indicates far too much bullishness, etc.! I give this BIG CAP rally, at the most, another day or two before reality finally sets in, as the BROAD GENERAL MARKETBASKET OF STOCKS continue to nosedive to fresh new 52 week lows, and the President's troubles fast become the markets troubles! Sharp technically and emotionally driven reflex rallies such as today's, after a nine day 400 point selloff, are to be expected from time to time EVEN IN A BEAR MARKET!

So enjoy it, EB, for a day or two, because the CHARACTER of this market has now RADICALLY CHANGED! It is now time to SELL RALLIES, NOT BUY DIPS!
And those who fail to heed the internal market warnings that something fundamental has now changed the technical character of this market from a BULL to a BEAR will eventually pay the piper!

As for you, HERR OLD GOLD, my day-to-day trading does not always correlate to my long term sentiment! Even I am not so dumb as to take advantage of these cute little relief rallies on the way to oblivion! NOTHING GOES UP AND DOWN IN A STRAIGHT LINE FOREVER! It's the zigs and zags which make life interesting for both BULLS and BEARS and enable us both to slaughter a few PIGS on the way! SOOOOOIE! Heh..heh..heh!

PS. Wouldn't touch any BIG CAP stocks at this juncture, but I did buy a little STRONG IINTERNATIONAL FUND and Van Eck Worldwide EMERGING MARKET FUND yesterday for a couple of days! Helps to pay for my green fees, if ya' get my drift? : ) Oh yes, and GSR at 1 1/4 now 1 1/2! Heh...heh..heh!

I'd nominate Mike Sheller, EJ and STUDIO.R

Anybody tell Disney?

I miss Mike

He poked his head in the door a few days ago with a quickie post and, in a flash, he was gone. Probably working on the Long Island to New York tunnel under the NY Federal Reserve. We hatched a plan to take it down last year and I think the wheels are finally in motion.

Goldfinger was a sissy

Mikey........ He bad...

Did you ever decide to purchase the Advanced Get program?

Russell is not here
But I hear he was here
Only then you were there
So you did not see him here
That's what I hear
Is that clear?

Limey
we shouldn't forget Sid and his family. Wonder if they've got to the pinnacle of the pole yet?

Now THAT made me laugh

So much is forgotten

Limey

Donald.
I'm ready to crash -- hope no hard feelings for my hogging the airways today.

North pole or South pole?

Platman: Can't find any Puts on Platinum any longer than 5 months out. The January 360 Put Options are $10.60 per oz. How much are the platinum Eagles going for? Hmmmmmm!

That was Sheller of which I spoke

Or more precisely, wrote

Not neither another Mike


OK

GoldenCheesehead: All you need to do is wait. I would place my bets with EB for the short term. Perhaps we will make new highs, or try to make them -- just think about what Oldman said about this market -- when it does become a bear, it will not be a pretty sight because of all the dipsters who don't know it.

JTF/Donald
I am catching up. Apologise if this has already been posted recently about Fort Knox.

A week or two I mentioned the name of the congressman in a typically circumlocutory post. Ya gotta read em all to sift the nuggets


http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q3/1998_07/980705.030704.auratoree.htm

But I cant get ahold of the guy ..

to all ..
If you can, I suggest you take a look at a chart of
gold in yen ..
There is a lovely upwards sloping support line that
commenced forming in January this year
It is now resolving into a triangle with the flat
side at about 42,000. Should this upper line break..
the next range would be 43- 44,000 yen .. If THAT
breaks .. then we would have a whole new ball game and
a yen collapse.
Now look at silver in swiss francs .. begining mid
May we have had an upward channel forming .. it
indicates support presently at 8.2 francs ( $5.50 )
with potential for a fast move to about 8.9 francs
.. call it $6.00.
Now look at the gold-silver ratio .. Once again ..
from December last .. take a line through the tops ..
0.49 in December .. 0.51 in January ..0.595 in May
Now take a parallel line and intersect the spike low
in early February.. this line impinges upon the
recent low of 0.505 made this month ..
Thus we have a tentative channel with gold retracing
its losses against silver ( which were made rapidly in
November last year ) .
NOW .. convert the JSE-gold index to $ to remove
the effect of the rand weakness .. draw a line
through highs in November..December.. January.. April.
Take a parallel and intersect the low in June and July.
And we have a massive up trending channel ...
Add these things together ..
1. possibility of a gold breakout in yen .. ie over 44000
2. Silver in support in swiss and trending firmer
3. Gold poised to regain its losses against silver
on the gold silver ratio.
4. The RSA gold at the bottom of a fine looking
tentative channel ..
and VOILA .. I really like the look of it .. BUT
as always .. a few false moves and the whole thing
will turn to sh!t.
Nonetheless .. were I greasepan and in effect in
charge of the world monetary system .. I would not
only be leasing gold .. Id be paying NEGATIVE
interest just to try keep a lid on it..

You remember Sid?
You are indeedy a Kitco Elder
I was still trying to figure Aurator out then
His cleverness often topped mine
And I am very competitive on occasion
Other times, I'm happy to smell the roses
And finish in the middle of the pack
With a smile on my face
Rather than at the lead
With sweaty eyeballs bulging

Righty O

PS
jonsey -
That last line is what I mean
Sometimes I have now Idea what I wrote
But it sounded good
So screw it

OK

aurator: Got your post on it. Thanks. So alot of glittering gold, but no audit ever done. My bank down the street gets audited, I get audited, but one of the most important repositories of wealth in the United States doesn't get audited. EVER? How about the other CB's of the world? Antony C. Sutton, where are you?

Why silver in the franc?
Try it in British pounds
Most of the world's delivered silver goes through London
Tis an interesting vission, viewing silver in the coin of the Realm
And, after all, it is a Pound Sterling
Check it out

I doubt seriously we'll make new highs, but who knows what folly waits? Nimble traders, such as I perceive EB to be, MAY be able to escape unscathed with a few profits from these cute little relief rallies, but most don't, and I would wager more than a few of Milwaukee's finest brewski's that EB, if he is honest, would have to admit he lost more than a few shekels by being bullish over the last two weeks! Eh, EB? Or are you a BC sympathizer, too?

Ask prices are updated at

http://www.Monex.com/prices.html

Call me up, we can talk about it

OK

GoldenCheeseHead: I have the same feeling about the markets that you do -- that the equity markets are history -- especially if WJC denies Monicagate -- and is impeached. Unfortunately the markets have a nasty tendency not to know they are history. Also WJC is not yet down for the count. Traders like EB will do better than you or I on the market gyrations. The bullish trades I do must be for a month for any reliable profit, and the periods of stability are likely to be getting shorter. That is why I am mostly on the sidelines waiting for the gold rally.

Not much to figure out really, old bean. It's done with smoke and mirrors. Essentially: Don't Panic. Grab a towel, eat some peanuts and muse on the magic of numbers.

Peanuts are pulses not nuts. So why do you get peanuts in a bag of nuts and not in a pack of frozen beans?

How can anyone sell leased gold? That's gotta be outside the powers of any lessor of bullion. I mean, there can't be any change in POSSESSION of gold. The gold must stay put. In one place. How can gold be delivered in a gold lease?? We are talking, are we not, of paper only.

Even if we kitco commandos get into Ft Knox by stealth or invitation, how would we know that the physical gold we behold actually belongs/is owned by the merkan people? The stores of gold beneath the Bank of England hold gold for many countries, no?

If we see a wall of gold, or a solitary 400oz wrist-breaker, who could say for certain WHO owns it?

aur@tor_turning_nelsons_eye

( .- )

If EB makes more on Disney over the next 12 months than I do with my BEAR-X fund I'll eat my Golden Cheesehead! BEAR-X has bottomed at $5.50 and is now quietly on its way to $15-$20 by the middle of '99. Where Disney finally ends up is anybody's fantasy! Maybe EB will be able to trade his stock in for a Depression cruise on the BIG RED INK BOAT! Then again....

I'll eat my Golden Cheesehead!

autoauropriapophagia?

Well, maybe in spirit anyway - it's tough being Russell.

Guten Morgan, Mate! You Aussie's ever watch American NFL football? Ever watch the WORLD CHAMPION GREEN BAY PACKERS and their THREE-TIME NFL MOST VALUABLE PLAYER, BRETT FAVRE ON THE TELLIE? Ever see a sea of triangular cheese-shaped yellow foam hats wildly jumpin' up and down in the stands at LAMBEAU FIELD in GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN as the PACK defeats yet another of their many NFL pretenders? Ever see a PACKER fan swillin' beer and grillin' bratwurst at a tailgate party in the parkin' lot of LAMBEAU FIELD both before and after the big game? If you haven't, I can't explain it to ya'! You gotta' be there to understand! But if you'd like to see one of these Wisconsin cheezeheads on display, you might be able to catch the PACK playing the Kansas City Chiefs on the tellie from Japan this weekend. They're over there right now! And I would wager there will be several hundred, if not thousand cheeseheads bobbin' around Tokyo Stadium this weekend as the PACK humiliates Kansas CIty in the first blood match of the year! And you thought world cup soccer fans were fanatics! : )

For those who missed it yesterday: Durban Roodepoort Deep's latest full quarterly results are available at http://www.drd.co.za/. Also available to download is a Powerpoint slide presentation that was used to present the result to analysts. The results incorporate all the DRD subsidiary mines, namely Blyvooruitzicht, West Witwatersrand, Durban Deep, Buffelsfontein and Doornfontein.

RJ ..
Not as nice a picture in stirling .. similar line
through tops .. and nice channel .. BUT silver pound
price in only about half way down through channel ..
Always found better plots using swiss in the past.
Believe significance of currency depends not so much
on WHERE it is traded but rather in what currency
local dealers THINK in.
The swiss make silver comparisons in swiss francs
per metric weight unit ..gm or KG. I dont know what
Pommies do but I suspect they may think in dollars
even though they trade in London.

Good mourning

Further checking of the HBG has determined : 1 bowwow= $20

1 doable = 50

1 looker = 100

1 premium = 200

1 star quality = 500 & up


These are base prices with add ons extra.Prices based on time of delivery for 1 hour or one time wwtym, whichever comes first. Satisfaction, is ,of course, guaranteed. go gold

Is there a market for chocolate futures? I'd like to buy some calls and take delivery ! : - )

Golden Cheesehead
good morning to you too. I shall ignore your unintentional insult, kind sir. I know that you know not the difference 'twixt an aussi and a kiwi, I guess you are really not sure at all where Noo Sealund is, geographically speaking. It is of no consequence, unless you want to get here. But please remember, just as you'd insult a canuk to call him a yank, you insult a kiwi to call him a strine. In any event, I am glad that we have spoke, at last. I appreciate your generosity and mayhem.

If any Stralians have got the guts, I'd like to place one silver dollar, US peace, NZ birds, what-have-you, at your pleasure, on the ALL Blacks to WIN on Saturday.

The All blacks, INVINCIBLE since 1996, have lost the last two games. Once to S Africa, once to Stralia.


Any takers?

Open to all

post prandial, thai_aur@tor

nytol_@__Teddo____|||~~~~~~

100 oz of silver, you must eventually return 103 oz to the leaser.
the lease % is paid in metal, not dollars. The price of silver at
the time of leasing is not relevant. ( until the leased metal is
sold at spot ) Leasing = short selling.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980730/battle_mou_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/japan_finm_5.html

Employers must either raise prices or take a hit on earnings.

July 31, 1998

Compensation Costs Climb For Employers in 2nd Quarter

By CHRISTINA DUFF
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- Employers shelled out more to cover increasingly higher labor costs in the second quarter, reflecting low unemployment and accelerating health-care costs.

The government's broadest measure of compensation, the employment cost index, rose 0.9% in the second quarter after climbing 0.7% in the first. While thatrepresents only a "gradual upward drift" and not a sharp spike in the rate of compensation, it is still important to note that "the trend is upward," said economist Richard Rippe of Prudential Securities Inc.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress earlier this month that, despite the Asia financial crisis's damping effect on the U.S. economy, he worries more about inflation than recession. If firms must
compensate workers more generously, the concern is that they will raise prices to cover the costs.

Total compensation was 3.5% higher than a year earlier, the biggest increase since the fourth quarter of 1993.

The culprit is health-care costs. For many years, such costs were declining, which helped offset any pickup in wages. But that golden age is probably over, analysts said, since the cost-saving gains from the advent of managed health care may have been realized. The index's benefits component surged 0.8% in the second quarter, twice the gain in the first. That reflects increases in premiums at health-maintenance
organizations, as well as the cost of employees' paid vacation time.

Meantime, the wages and salaries component rose 0.9%, only slightly more than the first quarter's 0.8%, the Labor Department said. Though a headache for employers, strong compensation gains are good news for many
Americans, because they are a symptom of the tightest labor market in a generation. Last week,first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 304,000, the third consecutive weekly decline, the Labor Department said in a separate report Thursday. ( See the full text of the report. ) The four-week average of initial claims, which adjusts for weekly fluctuations, fell 22,500 to 338,000.

For employers, the details of the ECI pickup over the last year show it to be less alarming than it appears. The finance sector accounted for a disproportionate share of the gain. Compensation jumped a whopping 7% in the last year, fueled by unusually large increases in commissions and bonus income. Excluding finance, compensation rose 3.2% during the past year, barely higher than the prior two years.

With the economy moderating, labor costs probably will stay in this "zone" -- not going a whole lot higher, and probably not slowing down either unless the economy really puts on the brakes, Prudential's Mr. Rippe said. Also, even if labor costs continue to accelerate for several more quarters, it remains difficult for employers to make up for it by raising prices, analysts said. That is so particularly now, with "the
deflationary winds blowing out of Asia, and the global and domestic competition in most industries," said analyst Edward Yardeni of Deutsche Bank Securities, New York.

Some of the biggest increases in second-quarter compensation costs were in the construction and real-estate sectors -- not surprising, given the robust housing market. Thursday, the Commerce Department said new-home sales shot up 3.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 935,000 units, the most since the government began tracking the sales in 1963 and the fourth record in five months. It should remain robust as long as interest rates stay low and the labor market remains tight, analysts said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/imf_pakist_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/computers__2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/indonesia__1.html

the vault of the leaser????? Why would anybody lease gold, just to
have it sit there?? You say the leased gold leaves in the form of
a gold certificate? Why????? Leasing drives down the price of
gold, so if the gold carry is just in paper, gold consumers would
still be facing a physical shortfall in available gold, and the
physical shortages would drive the price up, not down. There is
a deficit in new mine production, that is turned into an oversupply as
leased gold is also dumped on the spot market. Leasing = physical sale
= short sale in the gold carry.

Any other paper interpretation does not fit the pattern of evidence

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980731/international/stories/imf_russia_2.html

RJ; The problem with forard selling. It makes sense for any one mine to do it. But when they All do it they are shooting themselves in the foot. A self fullfilling prophecy of dropping POG. If the industry could get its act together and completely stop forward selling, POG probably would jump 40 bucks. But as long as anybody is selling forward, all will be selling forward. An all or none proposition. In economics this is known as the fallacy of composition.

Has anybody noticed that the yen and Nikkei have parted company as has been the case in Europe for a long time. Yen back near its lows, but Nikkei holding up nicely. A good portent for Japnese stocks. Yes?

http://www.wire.net.au/jsmith/

http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/

RJ: I too like Kitco better now thast the figting has eased. Even Hepcat seems to have mellowed.

Cheesehead; Actually I am in almost total agreement with your basic market stance. But trying to predict the market on a day to day basis fraught with peril. The PPT may be down, but they are far from out.

FRIDAY JULY 31 1998
Currencies 
Japan to end support of yen
By Simon Kuper in London and agencies
Kiichi Miyazawa, Japan's new finance minister, has signalled that he does not intend to continue propping up the yen and the stock market.

"Putting it very simply, whether it is the yen or stocks, we should rely on the markets to move on their own," he told his inaugural news conference in the early hours of this morning.

His comments prompted the yen to weaken almost 1 against the dollar, to 143.70. A further fall in the yen would boost Japanese exports and could thus help revive the stricken economy. However, it could hit other Asian currencies. Chinese officials have reportedly told the US that if the yen fell further they would be forced to devalue the yuan, a move that could prompt other countries to follow suit.

Intervening to help the yen was "all right" in "an extreme situation", said Mr Miyazawa. However, "the markets are intelligent, they can't easily be fooled".

Gold:

985,350 Registered ( +12,537 )
117,531 Elligible
1,102,571 Total ( +12,537 )

Silver:

39,581,321 Registered ( +258,290 )
38,506,070 Elligible ( +7210 )
78,087,391 Total ( +275,500 )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/markets_pr_1.html

http://www.cheeseheaduniversity.com/

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980730/asia_auto__1.html

If the Chinese devalue what does gold do??? Anybody.

http://espnet.sportszone.com/editors/nfl/features/1008cheese.html

If Japan is going to no longer support the Yen, the yen bears will feel free to resume their hijinks. I would think this will tend to break the link between gold and the yen we have seen for some time ( goodby Disney's law ) .

The key line for silver was:
38,506,070 Elligible ( +7210 )
signifying very little change in elligible stocks yesterday.

The GDP figures come out today. Wall street will probably follow the dictum "sell on the rumor, buy on the news", at least the future indices are all anticipating down this morning.

Last day of the month and all that stuff.

If it wasn't for all of the above, I would have expected this to be a pretty humdrum day.

As always, thanks for running the news desk!!!! perfectly pulitzer performance.

If the Chinese devalue, the price of gold in Yuan goes up. Anyone holding gold in China thus has a windfall. Anyone wishing to buy gold suddenly doesn't have enough paper to buy as much.

I don't know how much gold there is in China, but this would not be good.

Good question. Quick answer; if the past year is a guide the price drops in dollar terms as gold becomes too expensive in foreign currency terms and foreign local sell gold to take profits. The buying power of gold increases to those who hold it as foreign locals produce more stuff at a lower cost per ounce. Keep your eye on the buying power, not the price.

My humble gratitude for the nomination....however, it is with a heavy heart that I must decline the honor due to my declining mental health conditions. I would like to nominate "moon" for it's uncanny ability to get to the point frugally.

I would have to say that not has the yen and the Nikkei parted company, but so has the yen and gold.

Why?

Because the new MOF is saying the BOJ is no longer going to support the currency or the stocks.

People's Bank of China intervenes to support yuan - market sources
Date: 31 Jul 1998 11:56:19
Service: AFX

SHANGHAI ( AFX ) - The People's Bank of China ( PBOC ) intervened to
support the yuan today, market sources said.
"The PBOC has been quite active in the market recently. It enters the
market three to four days every week to buy the yuan," a foreign bank dealer
said. "The yuan has been under more pressure lately."
Sources said the PBOC was seen to be trying to control the trading band
within a very narrow range.
"Today's trading was concentrated around 8.2798 to 8.2800," a source said.
The yuan closed at 8.2800 to the dollar compared to 8.2797 Thursday,
while the black market rate was 8.7900 Friday.
A Bank of China official said there has been speculation within the bank
that the yuan would depreciate to 9.00 to the dollar by March next year.

Just a quick post to thank Steve Mooney et al for organzing last nights Kitco Dinner in T.O. Great time was had by all ( to speak for everyone. ) Aurator -- your gesture of donating The Madness of Crowds book for the best 4-nine speech of the evening was thoughtful indeed. ( I, ahem, was the lucky winner here, although surely this was due to volume, not content. ) Excerpts to be posted intermittently over the next little while.

We shall meet again in the fall, when silver is $18, gold at $525 and we can instruct our waitron to keep the best vintages flowing.

Once again, many thanks....

sam__a ( not sam! )

Bart: When are you going to start updating the lease rate data? Vital information.

Thanks. Do you visit the Kaplan site? He is a musician also, selling a CD with original songs.

I thought that the Chinese gov. controlled the gold mkt, offical that is not blk. mkt.??

Chinese potential devaluaion, Russian potential devaluation, Yen going up is effectively Japanese devaluation. How much gold do these guys have left all added together? This is not good.

Everybody else devalueing is the same as the dollar getting stronger. And as we all know, the dollar being too strong is what got us into the situation in the first place. This is not good.

The US economy is beginning to slow rather dramatically. The US is becoming the buyer of last resort as the rest of the global economies are tanking. As our economy goes down, they will be left with no global buyer. This means global recession/depression. This is not good.

Frown.

visited maybe one or twice.....didn't know he was a muzac-man.....I'll now include him in my prayers! SALUD!!!

Are "They" ( whoever "They" are ) actually stating that Japan Inc will be broken-up into seperate and accountable bodies. I have my doubts. If this does happen and Japan Inc is dismantled then Japanese Shares and banks might start to look good in 18-24 months? We shall watch this,yes/no.
Cheers to all and a good night from the land of OZ ( the best bit ) that faces the Great Southern Ocean.ahhh~~~~~~~~~~~~~

eggsactly.

er, 08:19.....

Doesn't matter. No matter if who has it or controls it is wearing a governmet suit, civilian clothes, or a military uniform ( which an awful lot of those black marketeers are ) the gold price in Yuan still goes up. If the government needs to raise dollars for any reason ( maybe for more US satellite info, or election contributions ) it becomes more attractive to sell gold to do so.

I have to comment. An increasing possibility of a yuan devaluation will increase the incentive for Chinese to own gold NOW. Unless they'd rather own dollars and put their trust in the US fed.

Hmmmmmmmm - Yuan devaluation not good for gold?

What am I missing here?

Each time the USdollar has been devalued, the price of gold soared. Why would people not be buying an asset that is radically escalating in price? If I were holding Yuan, I would be trading it for gold like nobody's bidness.

The dollar standard will bankrupt American industry.

The Chinese will never put their trust in the USFed. They will like the Japanese and Europe take the GOLD~the Platinum~ the Palladium etc etc
Good night and sweet dreams.JR.

You beat me to the punch line. The flip side is that the possibility of Potential devaluation is very bullish for gold. There comes a rush to buy now while we still can. For gold, this is good. In the short run.

It's kind of like what happens in bonds when people think the Fed is going to lower rates. There comes a rush to get bonds now. So even though a typical bond will be less in interest paying power once the rate lowering takes place, the prices go up.

We agree to do it again in September. Thanks Moonie, for organizing
an opportunity for 3 hours of fascinating conversation. Participants
included Reify ( pronounced RYEFY ) , Sam__A ( not sam ) , Steve Ross, Moonie,
and myself. We all hope Mrs Reify was not too bored by all the
goldbug talk.

Moonie would be telling you all this I sure, but is having co;mputer
problems, which I am hoping someone here can help rectify.
Moonie has a 486, with 8 megs ram, and win. 95. When he clicks on
Netscape, he gets an error window "insufficient memory". Has anybody
else had a problem like this, or can suggest a solution? I can
pass on the info via telephone to Moonie.

Consensus of opinion for the evening conversation:

1. The Silver Bull will predate the Gold Bull.

2. We are in a world financial crisis, and paper will burn
sometime between November 1998, and year 2000.

3. The capacity of the leasing, gold carry to control the
POG is at its limit. Something else will be tried to
control the POG. Our "deflation" is a function of the
rise in the $US, and the artificial depression of the POG.
Since both of these have been manufactured, when the gold
bull begins, deflation ends.

4. Demand for silver is becoming inelastic, and when COMEX
stockpiles drop below 60 million oz, panic buying begins.
The short overhang exists, and the blow off is going to
be biblical.

Reify contributed an interesting idea. Stagflation, before it
it actually happened in the '70s was thought to be theoretically
impossible. Reify thinks we could go into a depflation,
( a depression with hyperinflation together )
That is a real mind stretch. Could we have an economy characterized
by massive production cuts, and layoffs, and have massive inflation
at the same time? I think it could happen if the comming massive
correction coincided with a world financial crisis as paper assets
burn. What do you think? Buy physical and take delivery!

Yes, definitely. If the US dollar devalues, it makes the price of gold more expensive in US dollar terms. Gold goes up.

The US dollar is the top dog. When some other currency goes down, the dollar goes up in comparison and vice versa.

Currencies are not absolute, they are all relative to one another. It used to be they were all relative to gold, but now in this global fiat system they are all relative to the top dog, which happens to be the dollar for now.

Oh by the way, if you look again, you will see that I said the Yuan devaluation would be GOOD for gold - if you were holding Yuan.

to be reposted on Wednesday. He said, "in one to two weeks".

Yep, for now - but not for long IMHO.

If the IMF Russian bailout package fails ( and it will ) , and this is followed by a Chinese devaluation of the Yuan, the world financial apparatus will be in very deep feces.

Another wave of devaluations of the emerging countries will follow very shortly thereafter.

Paper is not the place to be in, for the next couple years.

Buy gold and silver

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/markets_ye_1.html

Op-ed piece in today's WSJ. Page A11.

It amazies me when journalist speak of how successful the IMF,et al was in stabilizing the Mexican peso. My recall is that @ the beginning of the crisis the exchange rate was 5.2 or to 1 versus 9 to 1 now. Mexico's population has learned that Gold can go up. Ditto for most of Asia. If China devalues, then well over 60 % of the world's population will have the experience of Gold going up. At some point, the bad money is driven out by the good. Curently, the world beliefs that the US $ is good money. Try to collect. Sell ? Too Whom? Does this make any sense ?

What is the W S J ?

Wall Street Journal

Very close now to the uptrend line.....watch for a reversal ( ;^ ) ) or a breakdown ( ;^ ( )

IN ONE MINUTE ON CNBC!! YOU GOTTA' SEE THIS GUYS!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980731/russia_min_1.html

In todays Electronic FT Corporate executives and investors will be "dancing in the streets" with the positive benefits of Y2K ......this proffessor has to be trully blinkered here is the page
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q69a36.htm

Go Gold and silver

cpo_UK

The missing funds - as much as $8 billion - could cause a financial collapse in the tiny, oil-rich country and possibly bankrupt several Asian neighbors that are depending on the wealthy sultan for a bailout he promised.
SEX-SLAVE BRUNEI PRINCE ON LAM
By PAUL THARP and NEAL TRAVIS
The younger brother of the world's second richest man - The Sultan of Brunei - has apparently vanished along with a big chunk of the family's $40 billion fortune.The missing funds - as much as $8 billion - could cause a financial collapse in the tiny, oil-rich country and possibly bankrupt several Asian neighbors that are depending on the wealthy sultan for a bailout he promised. Asia's stubborn economic depression continues to send ripples around the world, triggering recent job layoffs even in America. Prince Jefri, who's suspected by the family of personally taking billions, is believed to be hiding in Paris, Business Week reports in its new issue. The sultan, meanwhile, is holding the prince's son Hakim under house arrest back in Brunei to force the prince back home to face a government inquiry. One of Jefri's aides told The Post from Paris that the prince wants to tell his side of the story but isn't eager to come out of hiding yet. "The idea that the Prince Jefri has vanished is laughable," said the aide. "He is firmly in control of his family's thriving international business." Jefri is also embroiled in a lurid $100 million sex lawsuit here, in which he's accused of enslaving a former Miss USA as a concubine at his 1,788-room palace. A dozen of the prince's companies are accused in the lawsuit of keeping pricey call girls, centerfolds and runaway teens on the company payrolls - running up tabs hitting as high as $250 million a year. "When you spend $250 million on bringing in girls and keeping them available, sooner or later the well's going to run dry," said David Jaroslawicz, a lawyer for former Miss U.S.A. Shannon Marketic.
Bodyguards typically were given $30,000 a day to use as "pocket money and tips" wherever the prince traveled, the lawsuit said.
"We believe the prince and the royal family have squandered a fortune and made a lot of people around them very rich," Jaroslawicz said.
Sources close to the prince believe the sultan, who's also the religious leader of his Muslim nation, has come under the influence of the far-right Muslims who resent the prince's liberal, Western ways. Only a decade ago the Sultan had secretly given $10 million to the CIA in its Irangate scandal. Diplomatic sources say the missing $8 billion has cut deeply into the lavish lifestyle of the royal family in their pampered little nation of 300,000 on the coast of Borneo. In addition, Jefri may have run up debts of another $10 billion, and some reports suggest he has lost as much as $16 billion. To recover from the disaster, the sultan is trying to tighten his belt by balking on big bailouts he has promised to the International Monetary Fund, including $1.2 billion for Indonesia and $500 million for Thailand, says Business Week. The sultan has also slaughtered 40 polo ponies to save on stable costs and is said to be planning a giant garage sale of his 150 Rolls-Royces and several aircraft, Business Week reports. The sultan also has suspended free admissions for citizens to his Disney-like attraction, Jerudong Amusement Park, for at least two days a week. Most of the family's wealth comes from oil and gas, which has taken a deep hit as oil prices plunged about 30 percent in recent months. The missing funds came to light when the Sultan attempted to transfer funds from one of the family holding groups, Amedeo Development Corp., to give to the IMF's bailout cause. Amedeo also owns some of the world's best hotels - including the Palace here, the Dorchester in London and the Beverly Hills Hotel. Industry observers believe he may be forced to put some of the trophy properties up for sale, which could raise more than $1 billion. The family spent more than $300 million buying and renovating the Palace five years ago with lavish fixtures, including gold-plated toilet fixtures. The sultan Wednesday fired Jefri as head of the powerful Brunei Investment Agency. The family businesses and Brunei's government agencies are often intermingled.
The sultan has also hired independent auditors to examine the books of Amedeo, which was run by the prince until it collapsed under a loss of $16 billion, one report said. The company's managers were being sought for questioning. Brunei population has one of world's highest annual per capita incomes, $15,800.

Any word on the Granville discussion on CNBC. Don't have access so would appreciate a summary. Always a carnival atmosphere when Granville is on. Thanks in advance!

I did not realize that. FND today....so what? Never know til it hits...someday.

Tom

Tell Moonie it takes 8MG of RAM just to run Win95.
I believe Win95 even recommends a minimum of 12MG.
Have him add some more memory - its real cheap now.
I have a 486 with 40MG of RAM and am able to open
5 Netscape Browsers simultaneously.

So THAT'S why the IMF, BC and RR keep cryin' to Congress for more contributions! The SULTAN of BRUNEI is pullin' in his horns and cancellin' all his committments! Interesting! But not for Inodnesia!

I was reading yesterday that American mine companys are saving a lot of money on their labor costs, at the mines they own in foreign countrys.
In Canada they will be 50% cheaper owing to the high value of the American dollar.

BIG VOLUME down 3/32

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Global_charts.htm

Granville hasn't changed a bit! He's still BULLISH AS HELL AND LOOKIN' FOR DOW 12,000 this year! heh.heh.heh, poor deluded soul! David Tice of BEAR-X was his typical "just-the-facts-madam" self, busy pointing out all the glaring divergences and deteriorating funadamentals and technicals. Granville, of course, dismissed them all and pointed to a very bearish article in the latest WSJ as "proof" that the BULL MARKET is alive and well and on its way to DOW 12,000! I'll put my money on David Tice, thank-you!

have "hit up" ( shaken down ? ) to contribute to their cause !

From the pattern of the trades, looks like a bunch of sell stops at 2 were triggered.

I bought more at 2...

Last weeK's BUSINESS WEEK had an interesting article on the 1920s type excessses this summer at the Hamptons -- the playground of the Wall Street elite. The article concluded as follows:

' truth is no one really believes the party can continue much beyond the hot summer days......there is a knawing fear among those whose wealth came in a sudden flash that it can disappear the same way".

Bulls beware!

http://nypostonline.com/business/4485.htm

Getting strong support. This could get exciting.

Bloomberg showing Aug gold up $4.10

http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htm

For failing to recognize him as a "Kiwi" instead of a "Strine"! Unintentional insult not to be repeated! And I know you think I'm another illiterate Merkan whose never looked at a globe below the equator--BUT I DO know where New Zealand is and have often admired your lonely but beautiful little outpost as a potential place of refuge from humanity's huddled masses and problems!

If you're really interested in the etymology of Golden Cheesehead, STUDIO R has located two excellent little articles earlier this morning that explain it much better than I can! DANKE SHOEN, HERR STUDIO! I confer on you an HONORARY DOCTORATE of PACKER MANIA from that bastion of
PACKER scholarship and wisdom, CHEESEHEAD UNIVERSITY! You are sure to go far in this world just like the PACK! Wear your honorary golden cheesehead with appropriate PACKER PRIDE!

I know the Germans and the Swiss have been big lenders this year. Portugal is also on record as having "mobilized" their reserves. I am sure a lot of smaller contries have also participated.

Has/can the US lend? Dunno. I know they can't sell w/o an act of Congress. Are there any legal barriers to lending it? Good question. Will dig.

I agree w/ you, though, JTF: The US would not hessitate to "persuade" others to do its dirty work for them. Been there, done that.

sam__A.

that BC may have had a vasectomy and that the stain on Monica's dress may not contain enough sperm to get an accurate DNA read. Anybody else hear that or know whether it is true? Wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in anything the FBI lab comes up with. Remember the OJ fiasco?

Wouldn't want to go out boating on DOW lake this morning.

The buy point today is 5.36 basis sept. I'll try and repost that chart. If it fails to come up and you're interested go back to 5/30 and get it. The actual price for the first drawn in high is 5.79 and we are now approaching the first drawn in low. Sell sept SnP at 1160 today.

First of all, producers sell forward at the forward price, not the spot price. Thus gold could be trading at 360 and the producer could sell forward at 400. Why is the forward price higher than the spot price? Because gold lease rates are lower than money market rates. That's No. 1.

No. 2: You contend that forward selling is only "good business sense." Is it? Here is what happens when a mine sells forward: Upon reaching a deal with the mine, the dealer or bank will _immediately_ borrow the same amount of gold hedged and sell it into the spot market; the proceeds are then invested in paper. So if I am Lucky Strike Gold Mines and I sell forward 10 years production, those ten years production hit the street NOW. In other words, forward selling has the effect of collapsing multiple periods of production into a single period of consumption, flooding the spot market with artificially high amounts of metal, and depressing prices. This is "good business sense"?

No. 3: The contention is made that "gold in the ground is as good as gold in the vault" ( my quotes. ) I beg to differ. A kajillion things can happen from stope to collar - rock trouble, "wandering" exploration holes, labour trouble, etc. Mining ain't always easy. If the POG were to skyrocket, hedged mining Co.'s could see further troubles. For example, many mines will pay bonusus's tied to the POG. At $800/oz, what would a hedged mine be confronted with? A. Caving to labour demands for increased wages ( the guys next door are getting twice what we're getting! ) thereby rendering the entire operation unprofitible; or B. No labour force at all ( they now work next door. ) You ask: Can you dig it? I answer: That would depend. Seizing gold 'reserves' is thus quite different than seizing a house.

No 4: A minor point. Do we have 8000 tons of proven reserves "just waiting to be dug"? Well, if you mean "proven" in the clinical ( and legal ) sense, probably not. In U/G mines, for reserves to be proven they must be exposed via drifts on at least two sides ( 78% sure here ) . Very few mines are in this way 3.5 years ( =8000 tons ) ahead in their development, esp. at these prices.

cheers,

sam__A.

Our government's handling of the economy is non unlike the priest in the following story administering last rites:

A man is struck by a bus on a busy street in New York City. He lies
dying on the sidewalk as a crowd of spectators gathers around. "A priest!
Somebody get me a priest!" the man gasps. A policeman checks the crowd -- no priest, no minister, no man of God of any kind.
"A PRIEST, PLEASE!" the dying man says again.
Then out of the crowd steps a little old man, at least eighty
years of age.
"Mr. Policeman," says the man, "I'm not a priest. I'm not even a
Catholic. But for fifty years now I'm living behind St. Elizabeth's
Catholic Church on First Avenue, and every night I'm listening to the
Catholic litany. Maybe I can be of some comfort to this man."
The policeman agrees and brings the octogenarian over to where
the dying man lies.
The old man kneels down, leans over the injured man, and says in a
solemn voice, "B-4. I-19. N-38. G-54. O-72."

DOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITS NEW TREND! DOWN 32 AND PLUNGIN'! Gott im Himmel that was an impressive little rally we had yesterday! Heh..heh..heh!

Better watch out for those Cowboys this year. With their new head coach they look tough. America's team will rise again!

Any bodily fluid or 'part' contains your unique DNA. Sperm or no sperm, the DNA is there. It doesn't matter if it's cold spit, a piece hair from his head ( the skull one ) , or some flakes of skin from the scalp. The only difference is in the type of DNA, but the DNA code is the same. So it is a unique identifier, period.

http://www.sightings.com/political/growingokc.htm
From
http://www.sightings.com/index.htm

what they need is sperm....to prove a sexual liason...right...??

http://www.usatoday.com/money/charts.htm

America's team? What you really mean is Mexico's team! THE PACK is now AMERICA'S TEAM! If you doubt it, just check the sales figures for Packer paraphernalia! DOW DOWN 50! AND PLUNGIN', of course! Heh..heh..heh!

How's your Disney doing. Go Gold. Go cash. Roll on BEAR....
4th quarter rate increase. Economy will be SMOKIN. Strikes all over, not a profit to be found.

Bucs' been in same Bear market as AU . Bucs all the way - probably take Au to $ 500. So you must pull for the Bucs if you want to make money on your Gold.

'Father Time' will tell everyone.......regardless.
away...to w/w......long term......not short term.......NOT.


CHEEZE - go golfing.......so as I don't have to scroll so much. Shouldn't you be at AVID?
blooper - IRA's are NOT day to day. one sixteenth does not allow a person to retire. Aren't you bored yet? I am done w/ you. Back to school ole bean.
JTF - thanks buddy. to defend me is not necessary ;- ) you da man.


plat is allowing the slow ones to jump aboard........... ( Sheller Disclaimer apply applies ) .....uh huh.

'There is Something ABOUT MARY'....that movie is an absolute riot must see must laugh...GUAR-AN-DAM-TEE.

ya'all have a good weekend...


RJ - you are good to go......I'll call you w/ the info.

So I'm Heavy Hitter . You are a complte ars. Got to have a conspiracy going on at all times. I might not be a good typist, but I'm not paranoid.
Is there someone following me? Is this pain cancer? Is the Bloop really Heavy Hitter? Well I do consider myself a good utility infielder.

Haven't been worth a dam since Schram sold em. Go Landry, Staubauch.

Thanks to Sharefin for this EYE-OPENING article on the lengths this govt. will go to silence the truth about its nefarious activities.

YEN @ 144.33! DOW DOWN 60! TICK -826! ARMS @ 131!

IF disney cound rise yesterday, it will never go up.
i think it's all due to my boycott. Remember, Walt loved Mickey, Not just the bottom line.

Seminal fluid will do just as well. So what if Bills' 'essence' isn't there? Seminal fluid is the definition of... well you know... that physiological response to stimulation. It is her dress, right? :- ) )

I suppose they could argue that she wasn't in the dress at the time of the 'emission'. :- ) )

What a can of worms that one would be...

Well, I think I'll leave this alone for now. One thing I can say for sure about WJC, he certainly is making the office of the president an 'interesting' place....................

John Disney: Better scratch Brunei from the HNG index. The Sultan's kid has a libido that was equal to his Old Man's wallet. He's radically distorted the market. ...... Have to admire his persistence/stamina though.

http://chart6.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=avidtrader&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=dis&time=2&uf=0&sid=1618&sec=c&xyz=662874964&s=9453

bookmark it and check yourself.... see you in December. Not before. I will either be wrong or right or halfway wrong or halfway right and you will still be babbling incoherently w/ 'i told ya sos' or you will ( more likely ) have disappeared from here.... I waste no more time w/ you. none.


away...from anything that bloops
andhismoneyarewherehismouthis

Great Post, I learned alot from that. Thank you!

Where is the economy slowing down? Normally slo 3rd quarter. @nd wasn't so bad..Considering the strike, I'd say we go into the 4th quarter on sound footing. Chances are the 4th will smoke. Rate increase likely in DecemberThe danger is in too much heat. Go Gold. And may yhe Bear not eat youse. Go cash, go Gold.

http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/wires/9807/31/nazigold_wg/

the dressing down of gold continues...

Where is the best place to buy American Eagles or Canadian Maple leafs.
Is there any difference?

I'm going to forget what you did to yourself, and consider that you are probably a decent person. I will cease and desist..... This is a truce. So good luck with your investments.

DROOY: somebody dumped 100,000 shares of the ADR at the open..driving the price down. geeeesh

Amnyone know what the spot gold price is?

VERY interesting. Good show on geology ( which I will download later ) and plant looks ok. I have an idea that the higrade supports a larger area of mineralization than is known at the moment. These minerals are a paradoxical mix. So when the full story is indicated, I suspect more than one intersection of fluids caused deposition- thus Ag, Au, Pt group etc. I'll let you know after looking at report. Many thanx, Charlie

That's a good question! I heard on the radio that Comex spot was $293/oz @11:10 Eastern. But DBC August gold at ~288.9???

as exciting as getting even stronger support at 5.45 etnausera.

The market has to take silver down because the chartists say so,
the silver carry says so and becasue we still have 77 million oz
in COMEX warehouses to play with. The world is a flood with
silver, and will be until COMEX is down to 1 oz in the warehouses.

When we get to 1 oz, there will be a big fight to see who can borrow
it to short it down to.............................................
...................................................................
.......................................................... $100.00.

panda: We may have to wait for the close

It is the price you pay to own gold immediately ( "on the spot" ) .

Couldn't stop myself.

I would tend to discount the rumor for two reasons: ( 1 ) they need only
a very small amount--less than a dime's diameter-- and ( 2 ) they shouldn't
need any sperm to make an identification as the fluid itself is enough.
Remember one of the samples they can use to make an I.D. is saliva.

The only fluids I want to hear about are either brewed or distilled.

got it?

How much longer can the big boys in convince investors to ride the golden bull made of paper.

117,531 oz of elligible COMEX gold remaining?!

You tell'n me that $39 million bucks wipes out COMEX stocks?

( whistling sound ) What am I missing here? Explain to me why someone hasn't fried the shorts alive?

Spud

ps - oh yes, go Disney! Benefits for same-sex partners -- what next? benefits for different species partners? ( "Hi, I'm Jill, and this is Mr. Ed, my significant other" ) You da man, EB! Down 'bout two buck since that stunning recco.

Gotta' do something to keep our minds off his semen! : ) Did anyone hear Jay Leno's joke last night about how to identify BC's sperm under the microscope--they're the ones that are busy raisin' PAC money at political fund-raisers! Heh..heh..heh!

T-bond chart looks ready for big drop begining in week or two!! Commercials holding huge short position. Bad for $ and dow good for gold.
Namaste whatever that is?

Got gold?

31 JULY ( AP ) Things came to a head last week and the name Monica Lewinski is fast
becoming a real mouthful at the Whitehouse. The latest news about
President Clinton is definitely hard to swallow and seems certain to leave
a nasty taste in the mouth of the current administration. It will be some
time before all the stains resulting from this issue are removed from the
Oval Office. Monica Lewinski has proved to be not as tight lipped as
Clinton had hoped and is expected to spit out the truth to a Grand Jury
tomorrow. She will surely go down in history for her orations concerning
the comings and goings behind the doors of the Oval Office. Monica was
apparently on her knees when she received the recent gagging order from
the White House and now has to decide whether to swallow her pride and
dispose of the evidence, or to succumb to the deep throated rumblings of
the Washington Press Corp and spill the issue wide open. Any attempt by
Lewinski to suck up to Clinton can only be construed as lip service and
Clinton would be advised to try and minimize the impact of this, the
latest in a long series of blows he has received since coming to power.
Despite this latest blow, job security for the President seems to be
assured, as he can rely on his proven oral skills to promote a career in
public speaking, being, as he has often shown, a cunning linguist.
( although Hillary Clinton may disagree with this, as she claims she is
rarely on the end of a tongue lashing from Bill! )

Miss Lewinski is from a naval background and her choice of Clinton as a
lover is somewhat surprising given her preference for seamen. According
to her lawyer, Miss Lewinski likes to see men in power and relished the
thought of taking a length of time to chew things over with the President,
whenever she could fit him in. And the President was equally keen to see
Miss Lewinski, always puffing on a spurt when he entered her office.

Miss Lewinski has apparently been offered a PR job by Listerine who
described her as spunky enough for the any job. Her name has also been
associated with Big Gulp soda advertising and Resolve, "The Stain Lifter'

It's a keeper! LOFLMAO!

So much for prognostication via cheese stuffed jalapeno peppers! So I'll go back to using fried chicken livers instead. Or maybe jalapenos only work for silver?

gold holding steady, but silver strengthening.

Maybe so, but what is even more exciting is when it does something unexpectedly different from what the chartists say. You are looking at the big long run picture, I am looking at the puny short run picture.

Homepage now activated. Sloooooooooooooowwwwwwwwww

http://www.randgold.co.za/

Yen has been steadily declining but gold has flatlined. Ordinarily Disney's law would give 41250/144.57=285.3 but spot is 288.3, three dolars more.

Must be gettin' us ready for some exogenous event, now hidden from the hoi polloi but soon to be revealed! Worried that his little peccadillo has weakened his clout among Demcorats and that IMF funding is now on the chopping block! Now the Asian crisis is biting him in the arsch and he needs to jawbone the congress, Japan and the American people to "do our part" to save the world! C'mon guys! WE NEED TO PAY OUR FARE SHARE TO BAIL OUT MY PPT BOYS SOES THEY DON"T LOSE THEIR ARSCH IN THESE TREACHEROUS WORLD MARKETS!

NO ONE WANTS TO GET THIS MATTER BEHIND HIM MORE THAN I DO. I AM ANXIOUS TO TESTIFY TRUTHFULLY AND HONESTLY, BUT AS OF NOW NO COMMENT! Heh..heh..heh! Slick indeed!

Yep - you got it!

Down from about $50 MM when F* was going to organize his cartel to buy it all. ( Bless his 404'd soul )

Amazing that someone doesn't just jump at the chance.....but most would like to play with their paper toys.

Silverbaron: Yep, the bias continues to be toward PM paper profits rather than taking possession. One day that will all change. ..... But not before Gollum finds the right combination of levers.

unfortunately ..
to break it gold in yen must close
above 41800 solidly .. I hope it
does ..

You are out of character today. Where's the hyper-frequent updates?
Whither go the DOW?
I say...wither...
or plunge,
whatever the "investors" decide.
It's all fine by me.

got out?

sharefin: Reviewed my graphs this AM, and I do not have a 'buy' on any of the indices, and the # of stocks 2 standard deviations about the 40 day moving average is at a low right now -- but the indices do seem to be bottoming.

Comments about the Swing index, or ?

By the way, I think the truth about Oklahoma City being a sting that went sour will come out eventually, along with flight 800 being brought down by friendly or unfriendly fire ( missle ) . This will come with WJC's waning fortunes -- if he gets embroiled in serious impeachment proceedings. I am virtually positive that he will deny the Monicagate affair on Aug 17, simply because WJC will not give Kenneth Starr the DNA he needs to comfirm the legal source. Of course if another of WJC's many women friends saved her dress, too, and the DNA is the same, that might carry a bit more weight in the coverup investigation. How about the ones he's admitting having an affair with?

Rhody: Lease rate info should be back this Monday. But if you ever need a an idea of where they're at just take the difference between the spot and most active future month and convert it to an annual percentage rate. That's the forward rate. Subtract that from the USD$ prime lending rate ( of an equivalent term ) and you've got your lease rate.

But you might want to check our website first.

Philip Services Corp. brought its case against the onetime head of the powerful metals division into the open yesterday, slapping Robert Waxman with a US$150-million lawsuit on charges he orchestrated a campaign of rogue trading and then doctored the books to cover his tracks -- http://www.canoe.ca/FP/home.html

of remaining gold stockpiles on COMEX last Mar/Apr I think.
The powers that be, just topped up the warehouses higher than
ever! I think the FRB would lend gold to COMEX in order to
maintain the illusion that there is plenty of available gold.

Buying out COMEX is too easy and too obvious to work.

as we maintain our senses of humor. Humor has been defined as the
ridiculous unexpected. I think the pm markets are pretty humorous.

After climbing back up to breakeven, the DOW has withered and is now in a bit of a slide.
Absent your updates, I must surely be dreaming.

Away...tolunchongoldenhamandcheese

I seem to recall a drawdown followed by a large influx, as you suggest - but I don't think anyone ever was so bold as to try to buy the whole lot.

I would do it, but I'm just a little short on the total funds required. LOL

.

PHASE ONE OF SYAMA UPGRADE COMPLETED,
BANKABLE FEASIBILITY FOR MORILA PROJECT

London, 31 July - Reporting generally improved results for the June quarter, Randgold Resources today said the first phase of the Syama gold mines expansion programme has been successfully commissioned and the second phase was on track for completion in November this year.

The company added that results from its Morila project, also in Mali, were continuing to exceed expectations. Latest drilling results had confirmed a total resource of some 16.3 million tons at a grade of 4.17 g/t, which translates into over two million ounces of gold.

"The pre-feasibility study supports the fast-tracking of this project, even at current gold price levels, and a full bankable feasibility study has been commissioned for completion by March next year. Morila could be developed into a high-quality, low-cost producer by 2000," chief executive Dr Mark Bristow said.

In the meantime a development decision on one of Randgold Resources other advanced projects, Loulo in western Mali, has been delayed. However, exploration will continue at the current rate. A gold price of $350 per ounce or an additional discovery of a deposit similar to Yalea is required for a go-ahead.

Golden Ridge in Tanzania has come up to original expectations but in terms of size now ranks behind Morila and Loulo. Randgold Resources is currently reviewing the future of this venture with its partner, Pangea Goldfields.

Bristow said the fast-tracking of the Syama upgrade programme was working. A new crusher, open circuit milling, flotation circuit and a new elution plant have been commissioned and an additional SAG mill is scheduled for commissioning by November. The programme is designed to increase production to 270 000 ounces per year while reducing costs to $210/oz.

"The commissioning of additional power generators impacted negatively on plant availability and affected the results of an otherwise improved quarter for Syama. Nevertheless, tons mined reached a new record level of 4.9 million for the quarter while cash costs were down to $277/oz by June. Gold production for the quarter was 30 956 ounces against the previous quarters 24 961," Bristow said.

Elsewhere in Africa, there were particularly encouraging results from the Tongon prospect in Cote dIvoire, where continuity of surface mineralisation has been confirmed over 1 600m.

"The regional exploration programmes in our target countries are continuing, with the focus on the more advanced prospects defined during the past year. We now have 26 targets at or above the advanced stage," Bristow said.

Glad to hear some real positive news. How about emailing me on your progress. Charlie

The for-a-long-time America's team was founded and owned by Mr. Clint Murchison, jr. of Dallas from it's inception until the mid-eighties when the team, and other related assets, were sold to an investment group headed by Mr. Bum Bright. I worked for Clint during this period and for a total of ten years until departing his wonderful company at his death.
The team was then sold by Bright, et al, to Mr. Jerry Jones several years later . As a point of info, we sold the Cowboys for approx. $85. million and it is now valued in excess of $250. million.
I relate this only to offer a clarification to make certain that the legacy of one of America's great industrialists is awarded it's due honor. Clint was a wonderful man and it was my wonderfully amazing honor to work for this kind and brilliant man. studio.

Yes. Sometimes huerous to the point of the absurd.

chunk. You and I would both come up short if we tried to buy it all.

How about this? We lease $50 million in gold in London, and sell it
there. Take the proceeds and buy out COMEX. The buying and selling
on either side of the Atlantic should cancel the price fluctuations, and
we will still get a look at what happens to the price when someone
buys the stockpile. I think we would see the gold carry smooth out
the oscillation and replenish the stocks pretty quick.

( Tongue is stuck painfully in cheek during the typing of above passage )

Topping action of utilities ( down well over 3.00 ) , tells me bonds are ready to fall. This is good for the yellow metal. Looks great for gold, ghastly fof stocks. I can smell a buying opportunity in October, a la 1987.

Look at the valient stand gold is taking while the Yen gets beat down. Yaaaay gold!

10-4. All I know is I loved the Cowboys in Landry's time, I assume Clint M.s time too. I can't stand the team now.

I'm thinking about buying gold today. Bonds look ripe. I see a triple bottom in gold. Am I seeing clearly on this matter?

Prime Minister goes on public record as saying he is going to
throw the yen on the gentle mercy of market with no
support, and ditto for the NIKKEI.

Did that strike anyone else as an extremely stupid
thing to say?

This stupidity is a de facto devaluation, it seems to me. An invitation for the Yen to go to zero. Did he say what ( if anything ) would happen to their pile of currency reserves? If not to support the Yen, what good are they?

Absolutely. The only way they can handle this is to dump US Tsy.s and buy gold. What do you say?

He is more a fox than a jackass. That would be the US president.

AG's comment that Central Banks use lease rates to control the POG.

I don't think either one of these people is studpid. They are
trying to tell us something is in the works.

AG is hinting that we should buy gold, and the Japanese PM is
telling us that the yen no longer needs support. Are the Japanese
going to sell their treasuries?

I have purposely restrained myself from hyperactive posting today out of respect for our dear beleaguered freund Herr EB who left in a huff after his beloved DIS WHIZ got plastered together with BOW WOW DOW early this morn! I've decided to wait till the close before sounding my CHEESEBREATH FOGHORN! DOW ( N ) 62! The market internals continue their sickening decline! Uh-huh!

Top ( kitco ) window is showing $288.00 @ 13:57, but usatoday is showing $292.40...? Quite a spread, they are usually within 20 cents of each other. Any thoughts on this?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif

I have absented myself from this august group for some time now. No, not on vacation. Actually I was wasting a great deal of time playing ok bridge, but my free 30 days ran out. In scaning the posts, it appears that little has changed except for the fact that there seems to be less prognoticating that gold will go up immediately. In fact it seems that the concensus is that gold will remain stagnant until forever. This leads me to believe that something is brewing. When the last Kitcoite gives up, gold's time will be near.

T-Bill hoard and perhaps buy gold, and AG knows it.

You gotta admit it takes beachballs to buy Dizzy at a market top. Walt would laugh his dwarfs off. 3 or 4 downgrades. man.

USA TODAY posts the nearest comex contract price currently DEC. 98, NOT the spot price which is what Bart posts. Don't confuse the two!

Thanks much.

Do you really think AG was telling us ( in a very strange and oblique manner ) to buy gold?

A more straightforward interpretation of his CB leasing comments would be that they ( CB's ) control the price, so there is no point in anyone buying it. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

I do think, whatever his intention, that it was most unusual to even mention such an out-of-favor, antiquated monetary instrument as gold....so there must be some reason for the admission of leasing. Although everyone already knew it anyway, of course.

I think USA price is off. http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc is a lot more reliable for gold future. Would that USA were correct however.

Buy it here and put it away. Except for the 1987 replay in October..Buy your main amount then. Along with anything else your heart desires. Me; Coca Cola. I wait patiently.

the 65.03 level seems to be a major support level !
it just bounced off the level again.
GW

Japan can either die a slow death of attrition as money flows to America or they can cause a global depression ( which for them is innevitable with their banking sector out of reserves ) . By devaluing and causing China to devalue, they take down the world with them. Then the business of rebuilding can get underway now instead of waiting for the Asian flu to infect everyone and recovery coming from global immune response.

This is surgery instead of immune response.

Remember, it was not this Prime Minister who said the depression would not eminate from Japan.

Weakening , Down 3.65

Since we are playing musical chairs, what if old A.G. simply was saying ,,don't buy gold, the game is rigged and it's going to $100 an oz.

Sorry, I should not have said that, not in this world where front is back, up is down etc.

If that isn't in the back of our minds - well, it should be....although I very much doubt if it is possible while the BIS has its resources to play in the game.

I took a look at the Inpathique site yesterday after quite a while....they have updated their projection on the Toronto Precious Metals index ( after their system failed miserably on the previous runup ) and are now showing disaster ahead for mining stocks. Keep an eye open.

I reset my hardrive, so I'll cut to the quick without retyping the
logic sequence. Yes, I think AG is hinting to buy gold. I think
his lines of communication would be tapped, and he would be followed
as closely as the President. I think he has grave concerns about
the strength of the US$, and the future of the US economy. He is
hinting to his friends and family to buy gold.

He did not have to mention lease rates. He VOLUNTEERED THE INFO!
The public, even financial analysts do not know about lease rates.
He has just told everybody not only that they exist, but that they
have been used to lower the POG to artificially low levels.

YES I THINK HE IS HINTING TO BUY GOLD.

but BC is already positioning his arsch in controlled public press conferences so that when the world currency debacle finally explodes onto the scene once the YEN is allowed to plunge past 150 and the Chinese carry out their threat to devalue at that level, he can blame it on the Congress for failing to pass new fund appropriations for the IMF. and on the Japanese leadership for failing to undertake needed reform moves in their eceonomy in time to save ASIA from further contagion and collapse!
HE KNOWS WHAT'S COMING! He may even have it mind to blame the coming debacle on Ken Starr and the Republicans for bringing him down despite all that he has done to keep our economy strong! Or putting pressure on them NOT to convict or impeach him for the sake of economic prosperity here at home and their own political welfare! Whatever, if convicted or impeached he will be sure to play the role of "martyred saint in the cause of a more prosperous, tolerant and humane world!" They don't call him Slick for nichts by gar!

I didn't know that the leasing deals weren't common knowledge, at least in the community that has some interest in gold. The rest of the world could care less.

What do you think his motivation to hint to us?

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980731/sunshine_m_1.html

They have cut costs but still can't make a profit. $5.73 per ounce of silver is break-even on total costs compared with over $7.00 a year ago. Maybe next year.....

Thats more like it gold off $1.65 late on Fri, who wants it over the wk. end.

And now the latest one may be headed for the scrap heap in a couple of weeks! Starting to sound like Italy! The spin, post the collapse of the YEN, will be that there was no continuity of leadership during this difficult period! BONZAI!

Bt with the YEN certain to lead the world into a global depression through another sickening round of competitive currency devaluation, the dollar will continue to strengthen and gold will continue to plunge! I believe the plan is to keep the dollar going higher till the EURO is introduced in January and the European CB's can dump their huge dollar reserves at top dollar for cheap gold! Them EUROpean central bankers ain't so dumb after all!

Back to the question of Japanese buying of gold......it doesn't seem to be in the nature of the business to announce such things, especially by orientals.

What good would it do them to buy gold, unless they did it in a public way? The most that has happened on these deals in the past, is that the sale was announced, but not the buyer - and the price went down. Not a good thing for the Japanese treasury, at least in the short run.

knew about gold and silver lease rates. I then explained the gold
and silver carry trade. He didn't say anything, but I think he
thought he was listening to a nut! Heck, in listening to myself, I
thought it sounded ridiculous! So the public, most brokers, and
financial analysts, and anybody not in the metal trading fraternity
don't know about the lease rate fiasco. They look at the spot
price, as religiously reported by newscasts and say to themselves,
"Gold is down again; what a horrible investment vehicle. Glad
I didn't buy or encourage to buy any of that stuff!"

Notice how quiet both CBs and others have been of late concerning gold?
That's because lease rates have worked the price down VERY nicely!
But at 0.70% for one month gold, the gold carry is near the end of
its ability to function. So expect the rhetoric to heat up again.
We can expect comments from such notables as Armstrong and Duisenberg.
We heard from A. Greespan re lease rates. He can safely mention them
now, as the tool is about to be discarded, and if the powers that
be carpet him, that's exactly what he will say.

So nearly right you are! You said, "The market internals continue their sickening decline..." although I add that the market has been gutted and no "internals" are yet remaining. All logic should point to SELL signals, but some TA types are out there that are looking primarily at charts to make the buy/sell decisions...which is like driving using the rearview mirror under the current state of things. Charts are fine when the national and world economy are on an even keel, but things are so off balance right now that using charts will soon prove to be a reckless endeavor.
Cheers to ya! Golden Head of Cheese.

buying gold, or afterwards that they necessarily own gold. But
they will buy gold if they intend to sell US treasuries. Nothing
else makes sense, because there is nothing else left after US dollars.

Besides, if they sell the Treasuries, they know what will happen to
the value of the US dollar. So sell one, and buy the other, and
you magnify the effects of the rotation, and strengthen the yen
at the same time.

Scheissakawa! DOW just took out its morning lows! Bonzai! DOWN 71! GET ME OUT EBefore the WEEEEEK YYYEND!

BIS will allow it? The EURO will take care of the US$ without all
this manipulation of the world into a depression. DO YOU REALLY
BELIEVE THE EUROPEANS WOULD RISK THROWING THEMSELVES AND THE WORLD
INTO A DEPRESSION, JUST TO MANIPULATE CURRENCIES????!!!!

I don't like Greenspan but...we know that he knows a rising
gold price will tip off to "the people" that inflation is here.
He also knows that once a deflation really gets going he CANNOT
stop it. He also knows that in a deflation the US govt. is going to
go under as is America as we know it. We are big debtor Nation!!

Therefore, his mentioning of the lease rates keeping the POG
down is the first step ( a warning as it were ) that the FED is now
( or soon ) going to let the POG go up inorder to fend off deflation
in the publics mind. He knows he had better do this or he is in
big trouble with markets he won't be able to control.
The stock bull market began in Aug of 1982 and it looks to me that
the gold bull will begin in August of 1998.

My girl friend is buying gold stock today. Hope she gets it done.

Thanks, GD

NAW! They just want to be able to flood the world with an ever stronger EURO while quietly dumping all of Uncle's inflated paper promises with which he has ravished the world economy for most of this century!

XAU 63.98 off 3%
DOW 8939.96 off 1%

( 1 ) The Yen is back to were it was before intervention. ( 2 ) Gold is back to were it was before intervention. ( 3 ) The stock market will be back to were it was before intervention 8600 +- by next week unless there is more intervention. The average joe in America has no clue just how corrupt our politically controlled markets really are. All he knows is there is a 401K account out there somewere with his name on it and he's praying some investment sap will some how make the right gamble with his money. The rational is: My money is safe in mutual funds. I say don,t BET on it!.

Herr OLD GOLD, here's your chance to prove your contrary indicator theory before the long week yend! But ya' gotta' hurry! There's only about an hour and fifteen minutes of tradin' left! : )

Dead longs all over the place...ugly, just ugly!

Tom

felt the fear that the "big boys" would put us into a depression
so that they could benefit by buying us all up was in 1974. The air
was black with fear. Inflation was dead and it could never come back.

You are right if you are implying that the bis won't allow it.
Actually the big boys already have their depression in Asia and can
buy all they want at fire sale prices.

I don't know if we are doing the right thing but my girl friend
is also buy the First Phill. Fund. I think at least for now the
situation in Asia will recover and go with the gold price for the
next 6 to 9 months.

As we all do, we makes our bet and takes our chances.

Thanks, GD

between you and Silverbaron. Would it be possible for the Japanese to "swap" their Treasuries for gold somehow without the general market becoming aware of the transaction ?

The game is about to start and the newly formed Government of japan has more than made it clear not to expect a monetary policy that would boost the yen. Recent statements have sent the yen into a tailspin and i am convinced that is precisely the desired effect!
ALLOW ME TO GO ON THE RECORD WITH THE PREDICTION THAT THE DECISION TO BACK THE YEN WITH GOLD WILL BE MADE PUBLIC IN THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS. FURTHERMORE THE JAPANESE WILL SELL US TREASURIES TO BUY GOLD WHICH WILL START AN ENTIRELY NEW ROUND OF CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS. THE GAME IS ON AND GOLD IS ABOUT TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE!!!!!!!

They are all in the red:

A
Chart
ABX
2:34PM
16 11/16
-1/2
-2.91%
478,200
Chart , News , Msgs , Profile
Research
ASL
2:33PM
7 1/4
-7/16
-5.69%
38,800
Chart , News , Msgs , Profile
Research
BMG
2:33PM
4 7/8
-3/16
-3.70%
464,600
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
CDE
2:33PM
7 7/16
-1/4
-3.25%
106,900
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
FCX
2:31PM
15
-1/16
-0.41%
103,100
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
GGO
2:33PM
14
-1/4
-1.75%
41,500
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
HL
2:33PM
4 7/8
-1/16
-1.27%
69,200
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
HM
2:35PM
10 1/2
-5/16
-2.89%
647,800
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
NEM
2:34PM
19 13/16
-1/4
-1.25%
1,281,000
Chart , News , SEC , Msgs
Profile , Research , Insider
PDG
2:33PM
10 1/2
-5/16
-2.89%
191,900
Chart , News , Msgs , Profile
Research


Select a Symbol for a detailed quote. Quotes delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, 20 minutes other

like to catch knives.

Tom

but is content to quietly stuff his YEN under the mattress, the Japanese leadership has quietly decided to screw these frugal paper hoarders by inflating those paper yen notes into oblivion! THEN they'll start spendin' 'em and FAST! One side benefit! That 1 Trillion Dollar BAD DEBT PROBLEM SUDDENLY EVAPORATES AS IT IS MAGICALLY INFLATED TO ZERO AND EXPORTED TO ITS TRADING PARTNERS! BONZAI! DOWN JONES 104!

If the Yen goes in the tank, then so does gold.

CALL FOR HER RESIGNATION BY REP NICHOLS!!

Considering what was said by japan.

Does anyone know the current amount of US treasury bond holdings by Japan? I understand they have been sellers in the market numerous times in the last six months or so.

The only possible BIG gold seller I can see on the horizon, is the IMF, and then only in the event of a catastrope in Russia, or a global financial meltdown. Perhaps after the last tranche goes to Russia in the fall.

The IMF would need voting consent to do this, and so far do not have consent to sell their gold. However, they could be a source of gold for Japan to trade its treasuries, without putting either on the market.

With all of this, timing is critical........a meltdown could occur if they lose control, or perception of control of the chaotic financial environment.

The numbers just keep gettin' BIGGER! OUCH!

Burner of children. Ugliest ol hag this side of Waco.

ATT: Avalon, rhody, Silverbaron and blooper

Could help but "over-hear" your comments about the possibility of the Japanese "swaping" their Uncle Sam Treasuries for GOLD. May I suggest as pertinent and interesting reading on the subject.

All URLs must have extra letters "en" deleted from word "golden" before
Posting to the Internet:

A Global YEN/Gold Standard Implemented by the Nippons:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner/oracle714.html

JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES RUMORED
http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/oracle061698.html

JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & A HARD SPOT
http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/ORACLEndx.html

Down 5.33

You're all pulling my leg, right? Everytime I leave my monitor and levers and stuff I find everything all messed up when I get back.

Just look at that. Who did that to gold? And the DOW? Even poor little silver, although silver's not doing too bad.

It's going to take me all weekend to get everything put right again.

You guys are just trying to make Jeil's charts look good, right?

Ha! Ha! Good joke.

@ Silverbaron, sorry , no idea. It just seems to me that somewhow Japan could do a "three way swap" to get gold, without publicly selling Treasuries. Now, who would they do it with ? Uhm, that's the question.

TOO MUCH SUPPLY! NOT ENOUGH BIDS! BUYING MUST APPEAR SOON OR THE CORRECTION BECOMES A BEAR!

to all
Walked around Bellvile looking for Charleze Theron or
equivalent.. total strike out .. found a chinese
restaurant instead .. Nice spring rolls..

I liked it better when Bart's spot price window
was broken..

But looking on the bright side ( hah ) .. gold still rose
a bit against silver and silver in swiss appears to
be about on ( or maybe THROUGH ) its channel support.
Gold in yen is way up .. 41,500 .. but not high
enough.. we need 41,800 and BEYOND ..

Rubin's gone brain dead and forgot to intervene in
the yen - dollar market .. maybe someone should
give him a ring .. fake a Japanese accent.

ON THE POSSIBILITY OF EURO REPLACING DOLLAR! TIMELY NO?

UTES DOWN 6! 237 NEW LOWS! NASDAQ DOWN 29! RUSSELL 2000 DOWN 6.54! LOOK OUT BEEEEELOW!

Ah Berieve you tly yerring famous
Jahpahnese Battle Cly BANZAI !!!!

Howevers you sperrl "Bonzai" which is
velly confuse as many peoprle think
you wan buy velly small tlee ..
"Bonsai".. He He

Cheesehead: You are not a contrary indictor for the main trend. But a contra trend rally is a good bet when you get excessively bearish near term. And the rule worked again yesterday.

As I said a few days ago, a final selling climax in the complex now looks very probably in the near future. We could well see it next week. I'm looking for POG around $275 and XAU 55-60.

Europe begins a one-month vacation tomorrow. This is as good a time as any for the US/Asia/Other to make any monetary/fiscal changes, while others are otherwise preoccupied. Stand by for wake ............

your theory, ( thinking ) but the CB strategy as described is so
selfishly cold blooded, it was upsetting even to contemplate that
these people could do such a thing. I was not shouting at you.

Don't tell me,... microsoft levers?

IF you're headed for a depression--INFLATE!! BONZAI! EXPORT CAPITAL TO THE US AND INCREASE THE US TRADE DEFICIT! CANADIAN DOLLAR GOING DOWN SOME MORE! JERRY FAVORS NEXT!! DOWN JONES @ -125!

MAKE THAT -150! BUYERS STRIKE IN FULL GEAR!

their US treasuries, they will probably buy gold. The BIS opened
a branch in Hong Kong this year. This is no coincidence.

LIGHT VOLUME---STILL NO CAPITULATION= LOWER PRICES AHEAD!!!!

Yup. DOW off 150 ( Don't even look at the XAU, poor massacred beast. )

I bid -170 !!!

DOWN 37! DOW DOWN 165!

DOWN 180! GET ME OUT!!! oh my!

Very, very few people understand archane and difficult subjects.
It's like understanding the inner workings of a carburetor . Most people
don't know or don't care or don't care to know. And, it's only when the
"wheels fall off " that they get the least bit interested in things that are technical.

My point is that there are probably less than a few hundred people in the world who understand some of this stuff. Fortunately, some of them post here on Kitco. I'm not saying I understand some of it; with some of the posts I have to read them several times before I get the point of the
post. That's why you get blank looks re lease rates. Helps to keep things in perspective.

have taken out the floor...

In respect to our conversation re. cross, check out today's action on GEO:TSE. Nesbitt was able to sell at 1.90 and then buy in again at 1.76. Now if only the little guy investor had that kind of control over the price!

I don't post much, cause I never have anything to add. I just try to lurk and learn. Problem is there is so much that affects POG and gold shares it's like falling into a beehive and tryin' to figure out which one is gonna sting ya first.

I've gone from 40% up to 25% down in gold shares and I want to say, I'M NOT HAVING ANY FUN RIGHT NOW!!!

GOLLUM, you need some really good "BEAR GREASE" on you levers! I still think gold is the right thing and that patience will be rewarded. I just want to know, How long will it be before gold goes up so my butt cheeks unclench and I can get out of this chair?"

GO GOLD!! ( up please )

Thank you I feel much better

The BIS Hong Kong branch was opened July 10, 1998.

My favorite little domestic miner, AZCO ( AZC ) , now has a market cap of $14,300,000.......but they have $17,000,000. in cash...no debt, and no liabilities.........let's get negative...negative.

MAKE THAT 195!

You didn't expect the PPT to allow this thing to close DOW ( N ) more than 200 points did you?

got protection?

Just got on ( deadline stuff, ya know ) . We're bottoming ( cf. gold, xau, yen ) . Silver looking especially strong. Soon to decouple from everything. APH sees low of 536. Me too ( 535-542 ) . If you're gonna correct, do it quickly, jah? Then silver will lead all our darlings out of this pit. But that's the point -- the roofbreaker's got to be silver. Still looking to August 21.

....oh what a week, what a day,
PFUI TEUFEL,
nevertheless hope you all have a nice weekend
I am outta here
l_b

CCI DOWN 6 1/8! QUARTERLY CHART NOW NEGATIVE! IF MARKET CONTINUES TO PLUNGE WITH STIX BELOW 45 and RSI BELOW 25 IT MEANS SOMETHING FUNDAMENTAL HAS CHANGED WITH THIS MARKET! SOME INDICATORS ARE IN WORSE SHAPE NOW TECHNICALLY THAN IN 1987!!!!

Can rangy like go to a negative equity? huh? where you have to give some "boot" to unload it? maybe like a quarter cash plus a share is worth a dime? Damn, I need a bunch of quarters.

.

The month of JULY IS NOW A DISASTER FOR INDEX FUND INVESTORS! THE WAVE OF SELLING HAS ONLY BARELY BEGUN! IT WILL NOW PICK UP STEAM AS MA AND PA KETTLE HAVE TIME TO THINK OVER THE LOOOONG WEEAKKK-YEND!

The 4 lowest weekly closes for the XAU ( ever ) were 7/25/86 - 59.13; 7/04/86 -60.67; 7/11/86 - 61.92; 6/27/86 - 62.45.

Could someone direct me to AG's gold comments?
I would like to read his exact words.
Thanks in advance

Here are a few volumes:

NEM 1.7 MM ( on the high side )
ABX 0.7 MM ( avg )
HL 0.1 MM ( low )
PDG 0.3 MM ( low )

Looks like the unhedged producers are getting the lion's share

HOW APPROPRIATE!

I was wrong.
PPT still in the office. DOW back to near 8880
XAU returned to 63
Show's over. Ugly

appears to be headed to $1.25.........it's worth the same as a large cup of coffee at McDonald's.....ohmy, it could be CUBA LIBRE TIME!!!!! si! oui! yes!

"I don;t give a rap about corporate earnings. We're goin' higher!"--Joe Granville "Public now the smart money!" "Money flows unstoppable!" "LIQUIDITY IS THE KEY TO THIS MARKET!"--Joe the Blow Granville

RIGHT AT THE CLOSE OF THE DAY! Thanks PPT! DOWN 200 would have boiled my blood over the loooong weak yend!

The only liquidity I have left is this yummy Cuba Libre! I have pressed to my bitten lips....smooooooooooooth.........yum yum! ( GULP )

Is 286.40 correct?

should start to show his popularity fading real quick with a few more days like this one in the markets.

volumes and parabolic rebound. Wish I had kept more powder dry.

Need to share this cathartic experience with fellow Kitcoites...
watching XAU on quote.com going down slippery slope late in afternoon was like the sweat pouring down my brow before physics exam I hadn't studied for in college...thank goodness for slight rebound at close.
I hope gold market can turn around...can't take much more of this!

The question is, a rebound from where?

Look at this projection:

http://members.home.net/inpath/project.htm#itsgl

Rangy and GSR floated up on the day. All else is water logged debris.

After all, it could have been just another boring monotonous day without anything going on.

Does anyone still doubt Jeil's charts?

I have it at $286.60.
I wouldn't sell it there, though. You'll have to buy someplace else.

With gold breaking down another $2.35 posts are flying that the Japanese government is buying gold and will somehow back currency with it. BAH!! NO WAY. That would be deflationary. The new ( old ) government is an export your way out of this hole group. Additionally, there isn't anybody creative or imaginary enough to come up with an original idea in much of Japan much less in their lame government. Yes, we need a savior for gold but don't delude yourself it won't be the Japaese. Their government is their to protect the interests of the ruling econoic group and that all.

What's APH saying - missed his comments - still long the S&P is APH that trade sorta offsetting the 30 cent gain he has in silver. Interesting hedge Short silver long the S&P.

Next week we go lower in everything as world deflation continues. w

I make it a point to scroll past
All posts made entirely in capital letters
And even some with too many caps
I don't see the need to SHOUT EVERYTHING
Unless everything is of crucial importance
And everything is equal
Until then I will continue to scroll
Past these shouters

Righty O

Regarding AZT, maybe we need to do like the remington man, BUY THE COMPANY. Hope thats the right symbol.........

Tom : )

golds too. Thank your stars you have kitcoites to hold your hand
and interpret. Panic is caused by ignorance. I think we are
going to test the resolve of the BIS before this is over.

I quote: "The BIS will buy all gold under $280." So far this has
been true, and the lease/gold carry pattern suggests that 280 is
the ultimate bottom. The XAU should bounce back quickly as long
as we don't stay down here too long. We should see a rotation into
gold both from the Japanese and experienced traders. The $US should
fall both with the market, and with the selling of US Treasuries by
the Japanese. Sweet Revenge! When the bounce comes, it should be
dramatic. Nice to be here on Kitco seeing history in the making!

AZC ( sorry, rj, for da caps ) .....yes studio, and his world, has been deflated. Isure......you still here?....hep me, son, in this dim light, I can't see you...ohmy!....let's me and you buy AZC with OPM. huh?

Closed @ 1 11/16 UP another 3/16 on a DOWN day in AU! Gotta' a love a stock that does that! : )

You have called for a final wash out in the gold complex. Any further comments on the extent of the sell-off?

I'M NOT REALLY ADDRESSING THE WHOLE CAPS THINGIE TO ANYONE IN PARTICULAR.

It is just harder to read all caps on a computer monitor.

Compare the sentences above and see if you agree

OK

could be a punk Christmas for the studios.

the good news is, most of my gold stocks didn't go down today, the bad news is they went down 50% last week.

Funny. Can I ax you a personal question? Are OJ and Bill Clinton really first cousins?

The best thing about the stock market going down is clinton polls going down with it. The latest clinton poll asks women if they would have sex with clinton.
Results
44% no way
31% you bet
22% not again

Got gold

you are exceptional for keeping both feet firmly on the ground, avoiding flights of fancy like free tickets for the Hindenburg. ( sorry for the cap but it had to be done out of respect )
but, please indulge me on this and spread your wings just this once...your young mockingbirds may even learn a thing or two.

a while back i suggested that just a small number of people taking reasonable precautions for y2k would be enough to exhaust the physical cash in the banking system by making withdrawals. i suggested that the fed's focus would shift to using newly printed money to increase the physical supply rather than the historic task of simply replacing worn out bills. i suggested that this could be monitored by keeping an observant eye on the quality of the cash that passes through one's hands in the course of doing business. it has indeed been my experience lately that the bills are getting grubbier as they are not being culled from circulation as hastily as in years gone by. i don't feel that this is my imagination because atm machines that have historically provided me unfailingly with crisp bills are now offering up cloth-like notes...i currently have a series 1974 bill in my wallet--received during lunch today.

my request to you, is let your imagination run a bit, and spin me a reasonable tale regarding the future of the paper dollar over the next 16 months.

thanks, rj.

Honorable cheesiness rearry ruve those rittle tlees
and those capitor retters..

And he yellr alla time at po dow index..

He seem have probrem..

oyasumi nasai ..

Number 1 performing gold stock today. The mgmt says their new mine is a winner so far. Looks good and I like the price action. Dow decline today was a thing of beauty.

People who shout everything they say seem like crazies or near deaf.

I'm down on my gold funds as is virtually everybody else. But they are only 5% of my portfolio. The rest is money funds. I'm looking to buy a lot more gold shares when we get that selling climax which looks to be migty soon.

Although XAU plunged today only NEM posted climactic volume. We need climatic volume in all XAU components before we can even think about a bottom.

right? ( rhetorical question )

Old Gold, do you make signature loans? Hell, I'm good for it, pal.

has excellent mgmt and has overcome alot of difficulties. They should be saluted and the stock is an absolute steal at current prices. Market is now confirming this as the stock holds up better than others in the sector.

Cheesehead: I bought 5000 shares of GSR today at 1 5/8. Amazed it went still higher. Perobably will buy 5000 more on Monday.Bill Murphy thinks this could be $50 stock in 3 years.But I'll be happy with $15.

And now you know the rest of the story , after all people here [ whisper] buy gold.

My screen shows RYO even on the day at 5/8 bid 11/16 ask! I'd like to know how that compares with GSR which my screen has UP 3/16 ( 12.5% ) on the day at 1 11/16 BID and 1 3/4 ASK! Am I missin' something here? Or are you smokin' grated chedder?

I was actually glad to see the drop in POG today. Maybe, just maybe, a couple of more days like that, a $275ish POG, and minus 500 on the Dow will turn this sucker around.

Gollum..I do wish you would control the co-pilots. We seem to be all over the sky and air traffic control is not very happy. Besides...all the up and down is making me sick.

Off to enjoy a fine sunny day !!!

Would someone please post frames link, my favorite places dumped it.

Had a real nice volume reversal in GSR yesterday as new joint venture announcements in Guayana and Africa were announced. When gold finally makes its move I believe it could soar well past 50. Bought some at 1 3/4 on the way down to 1 1/16 where I picked up some more at 1 3/16 and 1 1/4. Can't believe the bargains I'm seein' in gold mining stocks! Talk about an embarrassment of riches! Just keep buyin' until things turn around as they inevitably will!

Agree completely with your l655. Also feel free to use caps to all of us lurkers when you feel like we have reached the selling climax. It must be close , if not overdue. Really enjoy and appreciate your posts. Keep up the good work. Thanks in advance.

Today with the Dow closing below 8898 we received our long waited DOW Theory BEAR market confirmation. Both the Transport and Dow indices confirmed the new Bear market. We are heading into economic contraction. When the money panic hits the banks, there won't be a myriad of investments to protect you. There'll be no containing the crash I forsee. The coming liquidity squeeze will produce a depression far more severe than the great Depression. We are moving from a period of debt creation that spans 50 years to a period of contraction and destruction of credit. Remember, the magnitude of the deflationary collapse is generally in direct relationship to the preceding amount of inflationary expansion in the credit system. As you know, the amount of inflationay expansion in the system over the last 50 years is unparelleled in history. Because of this, I think this depression will embody the worse aspects of the last four depressions--the post Civil War depression, the money panic of 1907, the commodity depression of 1920-1921 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. There will be massive bankruptcies, bank failures, the worse money panic since Worls War 2, soaring unemployment , corporate bond defaults, and falling prices. The monetary system will be in chaos. Investments that work during inflation will NOT work in deflation. I have stated in some of my recent posts that deflation can't be reversed or altered by any politician or central bankers. In will run to exhaustion and this is a long term process ( years ) . A tremendous dollar shortage is developing now world wide. The dollar shortage in the banks is far more acute than balance sheet would indicate. The loans to third world nations are carried on the bank's books at par--at 100% . But in reality, if the banks tried to sell these loans, they couldn't get 10c on the dollar for them. Nobody would touch them. Since deflations are always coupled with political chaos in government ,I expect that to continue. Since Japan has decided NOT to support it's the falling Yen, it will continue to depreciate and will drag along all other currencies in the Asia. After the Dow declines about 10-15 % from it' high's of July 17 at 9337.97, Gold will stop falling and will stabilize in preparation for a massive advance as an hedge against bankruptcies.
Have a nice weekend

Commercials are now net short 94,232 contracts. This is the most since 1984. My records only go back that far. This is almost double the amount at any time the last 15 years. Watch those Tbonds go south soon IMHO

Got gold

How can you be so optimistic in the face of such negativism?

PSSSST! Don't let EB see your last post, he may contemplate jumpin' off the ferris wheel at Disneyland! Wouldn't want that on my conscience! Would you? ohmy! Away...to find my Blooper scooper!

Where can we find the text of A.G CB leasing comments?

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/goldlive/index.html

Here are my latest positiions:
Long SPU from 1140 stopped out at 1175, had hoped to get short at 1160. shorted today at 1135 covered 1119
covered short silver at close may short on monday
short GCZ from 299 still short
will have entry prices over the weekend

http://nypostonline.com/business/4485.htm

People like Granville remind me of a gambler who is way ahead, but is unable to contain his greed. Consequently he fails to get ouT IN TIME and is willfully blind to changes in the financial environment. Consequently hw gives back all his gains and then some.

To give the devil is due he was correctly bullish when many of us here were incorrectly bearish. But he has overplayed his hand and will go down HARD.

Love your Scheissakawa imitation! Now if only you lived in Hiroshima instead of Cape Town! Say about 53 years ago! BANZAI!

What are you doing with cash that you hold now? And where will you put it when things get bad?

Thanks!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980722/greenspan__11.html

Sorry - I dunno - but was posted here a couple times thereafter.

Imagine my surprise at the events of the past few days. If the market thinks they've seen lowered earnings projections so far, wait til mid-August. Wheeeeeeeeew!

I calculated today how much I would have lost so far if I hadn't gotten out of my stock positions a few months back and the answer is: 36%! Now, most of my friends stayed in. So I'm careful not to say anything that their raging hearts might take as "I told you so" and stay off the topic of stocks completely, knowing they are seething and ready to knock my block off if I open my big mouth.

Gold's been taking a beating and that will continue until there's a general sense of loss in confidence in both equities and stocks, and enough folks become sufficiently filled with fear and loathing that they seek relief with the purchase of hard assets that they can hide like frightened rats in a leaking cess-barge pitching in the roiling, frigid sea that is the World Fiat Money Experiment Gone Wrong. Might be a while. Or maybe not.

-EJ

This might help too.
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/testimony/19980730.htm

Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.02. The 50 day moving average is 30.69. A year ago the ratio was 25.20

Thanks for posting John Crudele's article on WHY THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE FOR BC AND THE DOW! IT IS SPELLBINDING!!! Anyone who values his wealth better read it too! ohmy! Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse!

You seem to expect the end of the world as we know it. Although i am quite bearish in a conventional sense, you make me look like a screaming optimist. And that is saying something.

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/goldlive/index.html try this it should work

XAU/Spot Ratio = .220. The 50 day moving average is .241. A year ago the ratio was .299. There have been only 8 occasions where the XAU closed in the 62.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, the ranking today is #8; dead last. All previous rankings were during the months of June and July, 1986. The #1 ranking was on July 22, 1986, with a gold price of $353.20, an XAU of 62.77, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .178

Gold/Silver Ratio = 52.74. The 50 day moving average is 54.88. A year ago the ratio was 73.83

Cash should be kept in T -Bills, AAA Corp bonds and US long term Treasuries. I would be buying senior gold stocks especially at today's attractive prices. The gold stocks may decline further, but nobody knows where the bottom will be. With the XAU at 63, perhaps there is a 10-15% down side risk, but generally speaking , I think the bottom is very close.

Spot gold $292.92; spot silver $5.34; XAU 70.52

Spot gold $302.71, spot silver $5.43; XAU 80.61; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.79

http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

Sorry, it's long, but I couldn't refind the URL. Worth keeping here anyway.

This is a remarkable document. More comments to follow.

sam__A.

===================================================

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives
July 24, 1998

I am pleased to be here today to present the Federal Reserve Board's views on the regulation of over-the-counter ( OTC ) derivatives. Under Secretary Hawke has already addressed the specific questions raised in your letter of invitation. The Board generally agrees with the Treasury Department's views on these issues. In particular, the Board supports a standstill of attempts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) to impose new regulations on OTC derivatives as a minimalist approach to our longstanding concerns about CFTC assertions of authority in this area.1 In my testimony I shall step back from these issues of immediate concern and address the fundamental underlying issue, that is, whether it is appropriate to apply the Commodity Exchange Act ( CEA ) to over-the-counter derivatives ( and, indeed, to financial derivatives generally ) in order to achieve the CEA's objectives--deterring market manipulation and protecting investors.

The CEA and Its Objectives
The Commodity Exchange Act of 1936 and its predecessor the Grain Futures Act of 1922 were a response to the perceived problems of manipulation of grain markets that were particularly evident in the latter part of the nineteenth and early part of the twentieth centuries. For example, endeavors to corner markets in wheat, while rarely successful, often led to temporary, but sharp, increases in prices that engendered very large losses to those short sellers of futures contracts who had no alternative but to buy and deliver grain under their contractual obligations. Because quantities of grain following a harvest are generally known and limited, it is possible, at least in principle, to corner a market.

It is not possible to corner a market for financial futures where the underlying asset or its equivalent is in essentially unlimited supply. Financial derivative contracts are fundamentally different from agricultural futures owing to the nature of the underlying asset from which the derivative contract is "derived." Supplies of foreign exchange, government securities, and certain other financial instruments are being continuously replenished, and large inventories held throughout the world are immediately available to be offered in markets if traders endeavor to create an artificial shortage. Thus, unlike commodities whose supply is limited to a particular growing season and finite carryover, the markets for financial instruments and their derivatives are deep and, as a consequence, are extremely difficult to manipulate. The type of regulation that is applied to crop futures appears wholly out of place and inappropriate for financial futures, whether traded on organized exchanges or over-the-counter, and accordingly, the Federal Reserve Board sees no need for it.

The early legislation on the trading of commodity futures was primarily designed to discourage forms of speculation that were seen as exacerbating price volatility and hurting farmers. In addition, it included provisions designed primarily to protect small investors in commodity futures, whose participation had been increasing and was viewed as beneficial. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974 did not make any fundamental changes in the objectives of derivatives regulation. However, it expanded the scope of the CEA quite significantly. In addition to creating the CFTC as an independent agency and giving the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over commodity futures and options, the 1974 Act expanded the CEA's definition of a "commodity" beyond a specific list of agricultural commodities to include "all other goods and articles, except onions,...and all services, rights, and interests in which contracts for future delivery are presently or in the future dealt in."

Given this broadened definition of a commodity and an equally broad interpretation of what constitutes a futures contract, a wide range of off-exchange transactions would have been brought potentially within the scope of the CEA. The Treasury Department was particularly concerned about the prospect that the foreign exchange markets might be found to fall within the Act's scope. Aside from the difficulty of manipulating these markets, Treasury argued that participants in OTC markets, primarily banks and other financial institutions, and large corporations, did not need the consumer protections of the Commodity Exchange Act. Consequently, Treasury proposed and Congress included a provision in the 1974 Act, the "Treasury Amendment," which excluded off-exchange derivative transactions in foreign currency ( as well as government securities, and certain other financial instruments ) from the newly expanded CEA. What the Treasury did not envision, and the Treasury Amendment did not protect, was the subsequent development and spectacular growth of a much wider range of OTC derivative contracts--swaps on interest rates, exchange rates, and prices of commodities and securities.

Potential Application of the CEA to OTC Derivatives
The vast majority of privately negotiated OTC contracts are settled in cash rather than through delivery. Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. ( Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years. ) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.

To be sure, a few, albeit growing, types of OTC contracts such as equity swaps and some credit derivatives have a limited deliverable supply. However, unlike crop futures, where failure to deliver has additional significant penalties, costs of failure to deliver in OTC derivatives are almost always limited to actual damages. There is no reason to believe either equity swaps or credit derivatives can influence the price of the underlying assets any more than conventional securities trading does. Thus, manipulators attempting to corner a market, even if successful, would have great difficulty in inducing sellers in privately negotiated transactions to pay significantly higher prices to offset their contracts or to purchase the underlying assets.

Finally, the prices established in privately negotiated transactions are not widely disseminated or used directly or indiscriminately as the basis for pricing other transactions. Counterparties in the OTC markets can easily recognize the risks to which they would be exposed by failing to make their own independent valuations of their transactions, whose economic and credit terms may differ in significant respects. Moreover, they usually have access to other, often more reliable or more relevant sources of information. Hence, any price distortions in particular transactions could not affect other buyers or sellers of the underlying asset.

Professional counterparties to privately negotiated contracts also have demonstrated their ability to protect themselves from losses from fraud and counterparty insolvencies. They have managed credit risks quite effectively through careful evaluation of counterparties, the setting of internal credit limits, and judicious use of netting and collateral agreements. In particular, they have insisted that dealers have financial strength sufficient to warrant a credit rating of A or higher. This, in turn, provides substantial protection against losses from fraud. Dealers are established institutions with substantial assets and significant investments in their reputations. When they have been seen to engage in deceptive practices, the professional counterparties that have been victimized have been able to obtain redress under laws applicable to contracts generally. Moreover, the threat of legal damage awards provides dealers with strong incentives to avoid misconduct.

A far more powerful incentive, however, is the fear of loss of the dealer's good reputation, without which it cannot compete effectively, regardless of its financial strength or financial engineering capabilities. In these respects, derivatives dealers bear no resemblance to the "bucket shops" whose activities apparently motivate the exchange trading requirement.

I do not mean to suggest that counterparties will not in the future suffer significant losses on their OTC derivatives transactions. Since 1994 the effectiveness of their risk management skills has not been tested by widespread major declines in underlying asset prices. I have no doubt derivatives losses will mushroom at the next significant downturn as will losses on holdings of other risk assets, both on and off exchange. Nonetheless, I see no reason to question the underlying stability of the OTC markets, or the overall effectiveness of private market discipline, or the prudential supervision of the derivatives activities of banks and other regulated participants. The huge increase in the volume of OTC transactions reflects the judgments of counterparties that these instruments provide extensive protection against undue asset concentration risk. They are clearly perceived to add significant value to our financial structure, both here in the United States and internationally.

Accordingly the Federal Reserve Board sees no reason why these markets should be encumbered with a regulatory structure devised for a wholly different type of market process, where supplies of underlying assets are driven by the vagaries of weather and seasons. Inappropriate regulation distorts the efficiency of our market system and as a consequence impedes growth and improvement in standards of living.

Application of the CEA to Centralized Markets for Derivatives
Recently, some participants in the OTC markets have shown interest in utilizing centralized mechanisms for clearing or executing OTC derivatives transactions. For example, the London Clearing House plans to introduce clearing of interest rate swaps and forward rate agreements in the second half of 1999, and the Electronic Broking Service, a brokerage system for foreign exchange contracts, reportedly is planning to begin brokering forward rate agreements. The latter service may not be offered in the U.S., however, because of the threat of application of the CEA.

Even some who argue that privately negotiated and bilaterally settled derivatives transactions should be excluded from the CEA, nonetheless believe that such transactions should be subject to the CEA if they are centrally executed or cleared, for fear that such facilities can foster price manipulation. Leaving aside our concern about the regulatory regime of financial futures generally, the Federal Reserve Board is particularly concerned that the vast majority of the instruments currently traded in the OTC markets not be subject to the CEA, even if they become sufficiently standardized to be centrally executed or cleared. To be sure, OTC contracts between counterparties would then have many similarities to exchange-traded contracts. But, they would still retain distinct characteristics that would leave them economically far short of standardization. For example, participants in trade execution systems may seek to retain counterparty credit limits, and participants in clearing systems likely will resist constraints on their ability to customize the economic terms of contracts. To force full standardization would reduce the economic value of a bilateral contract to both parties, and to the marketplace as a whole. The 1992 Act as we read it authorized exemption of all OTC derivatives transactions between professional counterparties from the CEA, whether or not they are centrally executed or cleared. Even with centralized execution or clearing, the most relevant attributes of these markets would not resemble those of the agricultural futures markets and hence would not be susceptible to manipulation.

Harmonizing Regulation of the OTC Markets and Futures Exchanges
Beyond question, the centralized execution and clearing of what to date have been privately negotiated and bilaterally cleared transactions would narrow the existing differences between exchange-traded and OTC derivatives transactions. However, that is not a reason to extend the CEA to cover OTC transactions. As we have argued, doing so is unnecessary to achieve the public policy objectives of the CEA. Moreover, as the economic differences between OTC and exchange-traded contracts are narrowing, it is becoming more apparent that OTC market participants share this conclusion; their decision to trade outside the regulated environment implies they do not see the benefits of the CEA as outweighing its costs.

Instead, the Federal Reserve believes that the fact that OTC markets function so effectively without the benefits of the CEA provides a strong argument for development of a less burdensome regulatory regime for financial derivatives traded on futures exchanges. To reiterate, the existing regulatory framework for futures trading was designed in the 1920s and 1930s for the trading of grain futures by the general public. Like OTC derivatives, exchange-traded financial derivatives generally are not as susceptible to manipulation and are traded predominantly by professional counterparties.

Indeed, Congress has rejected the notion of a "one-size-fits-all" approach to regulation of exchange trading. The exemptive authority that Congress gave the CFTC in 1992 permitted it to create a less restrictive regulatory regime for professional trading of financial futures. However, the pilot program proposed by the CFTC evidently has not met the competitive and business requirements of the futures exchanges--no contracts are currently trading under the program. Last year, the Agriculture Committees of the House and the Senate both attempted to craft legislation that would spur development of such a new regulatory framework but were unable to achieve consensus on the best approach. In any event, if progress toward a more appropriate regime is not forthcoming soon, Congress should seriously consider passage of legislation that would mandate progress.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the Board continues to believe that, aside from safety and soundness regulation of derivatives dealers under the banking or securities laws, regulation of derivatives transactions that are privately negotiated by professionals is unnecessary. Moreover, the Board questions whether the CEA as currently implemented is an appropriate framework for professional trading of financial futures on exchanges. The key elements of the CEA were put in place in the 1920s and 1930s to regulate the trading of agricultural futures by the general public. The vast majority of financial futures traded simply are not as susceptible to manipulation as agricultural and other commodity futures where supplies are more limited. And participants in financial futures markets are predominantly professionals that simply do not require the customer protections that may be needed by the general public. Regulation that serves no useful purpose hinders the efficiency of markets to enlarge standards of living. In choosing a particular regulatory regime it is important to remember that no system will fully eliminate inappropriate or illegal activities. Banking examiners, for example, find it difficult to unearth fraud and embezzlement in their early stages. Securities regulators have difficulty ferreting out malfeasance. Even trading on exchanges does not in itself eliminate all endeavors at manipulation, as the Hunt brothers' 1979-80 fiasco in silver demonstrated. The primary source of regulatory effectiveness has always been private traders being knowledgeable of their counterparties. Government regulation can only act as a backup. It should be careful to create net benefits to markets.














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Footnotes

1 It also supports the legislation to amend the banking and insolvency laws that has been recommended by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. This legislation would shore up the infrastructure of U.S. markets and enhance their competitiveness. The legislation recognizes that the traditional insolvency process can create serious risks to counterparties to financial transactions because of the price volatility of financial assets.

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Last update: July 24, 1998, 10:00 AM

In bull markets, stocks go up and in bear markets they go down. I don't expect the end of the world. I think that a depression is an opportunity for the world to solve its problems in anticipation of new prosperity. After this financial storm is over, there will be a fantastic period of prosperity to follow. Only during depressions you solve most problems because the people demand it. I would to remind you that I was super bullish on stocks between 1982-to Feb 1998.

The all time high was 650.28 set on July 16th. The close tonight is 641.18

Yep Andrea is on jeopardy and they are donating theyre winnings to charitys. When announcing their charities Alex commented about the markets being in such turmoil the past few days. He says "I know that you cant talk about what you and Alan Greenspan, your husband talk about at night, but is their was anything that we should know as americans about the markets", she says "Ohhhhhh, uhhhh, that we are all interconnected, what happens in Asia, happens here"..

hrmm really? Im sure she slipped up and meant to say HAS AN EFFECT HERE instead of happens here. No im not kidding shes on jeopardy right now. i dont think its a rerun because of what Alex said about market turmoil...

I agree that we are headed to a worldwide depression. However the greenback is the last place I want to keep my assets. When our stock and bond market head south the dollar will head south. All the dollars and debt held as reserves in foreign countries will run for cover. To euros, or PMs or even Yen.

Inflation in this country has been held back by shipping extra dollars to the rest of the world. Japan ships us cars and we send them Tbonds. China sends us air jordans and we send them Tbonds. When our financial markets head south all those dollars are going to come pouring back.

When the Nikkei fell in 1989 the yen fell almost 25%. The Japanese were running large trade surpluses. With the large trade deficits being run in the US the fall of the dollar is going to be much more dramatic than the Yens fall in 89.

Add Billy boy Klinton to the mix and the picture is even scarier. The only thing that can save Billy boy is a good economy. So he's going to run the printing presses full speed ahead.

Got gold

8 Mb of RAM is not enough to run Windows95 properly. You have to do 1 of 2 choices: 1 ) get more RAM ( Windows95 doesn't really run properly on less than 16 Mb of RAM, especially on a slow computer. ) Or 2 ) Install Windows 3.1, which will run fine on 8 Mb.

There's only one problem with staying at 8 Mb if you want to access Kitco, though. Netscape 3.04 enabled for Jave will not run optimally if you have less than 12 Mb RAM.

I think your registry is probably also cluttered. If you do monthly maintenance on Win95 you can keep it going indefinitely, but if it has completely degenerated, you may have to blank your hard drive by doing a Format, then reinstall the opreating system from scratch. We had to do that to a Win95 machine here at my lab.

Best wishes,
Steve

Gold: 1,092,254 ( -10,417 )

Silver: 78,507,438 ( +420,047 )

To pick up the phone and do business with MONEX....

HANDCUFF YOURSELF TO THE BUMPER OF AN 18-WHELLER TILL THE URGE PASSES!

e-mail me for details: gunrunnr@nwfl.net

Buy from Bart instead.... : )

Commerical Insiders

Long 107,815
Short 67,478

Speculators

Long 7801
Short 47,568

Mega-lopsided with the specs; when the market turns it will go up like a rocket!

.

Has called this bear to a tee. He says this looks worse than 87. Look for a big crash i October. Remember I said this. I will be a buyer then.

Commercial Insiders

Long 14,462
Short 63,694

Speculators

Long 32,914
Short 2247

This one very lopsided as well; bearish for silver...

Note COT data for silver and gold as of 7/28.

As I scan these posts I always read about inflation and AG ability to pump money into the system via printing. Let me repeat: Hyper inflation in the US is impossible unless the AG pays its bills with cash instead of checks. So far they are paying their bills with checks. We are in the beginning of a major bear market in stocks. As stocks decline further the US dollar may also decline against gold and against gold backed currencies such as the Swiss Franc. However, I expect all non gold backed currencies to become worthless over time.

Ideas on the October bottom for SP500?

It's not too late to buy some really way out-of-the-money puts - I bought mine at 700.

The dollar will retain strength. How much longer will they. We are in for a bitter Bear. It will end temporarily in late October. Respit will last to Hollidays. Then he will strike again. I know that sounds weird, but, so be it. Recession 2nd quarter 99.

This market has been tracking that of 1987 to a 95%. I suggest you look at Oct. 87 verry closely. I say late Oct. It will be a real crash....and while interrupted by hollidays, will continue many months.

In order to calculate the Dow in pre-1933 dollars just do the following: ( Current Dow/Current Spot Gold ) X ( $20.67 ) ( the pre-1933 price of one oz troy )

Until the crash. I'm not trying to be a smarty pants. Get out and stay out till late October. Liars abound, and habits are hard to change. I have lost some money too. I am out, and I will stay out. There is a great deal of money to be made here.

My girl friends money didn't get posted into her account
until after the market closed. How fortunate can one get! Still time
to buy more gold stocks.

I think the best are DROOY and HGMCY. If any of you had
$20,000 to spend Monday what would do. Anyone?

Thanks, GD

But it's 1973. Fully 50% of the Stock Market will be lost. If it looks oversold to you, try it on. Iguarantee you will get cut off at your knees. Try at 8300 for a tradeable rally.

So there they are and the President decides to make a deposit on her dress thinking, haha, I'm so clever, she'll wear the evidence out and I won't have to clean up...

Let that be a lesson to you Kitcoites, don't do that!

I'm holding my gold and silver mining stocks, but I didn't like the look of today's market much. If gold or your chosen stocks start to ride the Bollinger Bands down - steer clear would be the best advice. Given $20 K to invest I would do one of two things:

1 ) Stay on the sidelines until a clear uptrend develops

2 ) Dollar-average in over several weeks ( at least )

You might not catch the bottom, but you also might not catch a falling safe.

The two you mentioned would be my choices. Stellar earnings should be coming out for the third quarter unless these companies do something really stupid in the meantime.

1. Fear
2. Panic
3. Loss
4. Down
5. Account closed
6. Class action
7. Buzy signal
8. Crash
9. Unemployment
10.Repossession
11.Decline
12.Humility
13.Folly
14.Mania
15.Bubble
16.Collapse
17.Food Stamps
18.Hunger
19.Depression
20.GOLD

Market will favor Kojac. The sucker will be WJC. RJ is right about the printing presses. They work overtime now. More may have to be used. RJ is wrong about my being Heavy Hitter however. Conspiracy is given a bad name at Kitco.

Are paper. Paper is going down big time. Physical is great. I feel sorry for EB.

We all thank you profusely for your advice on 19:03. ...And to think, we all could be caught by a normal response of emulating Il Duce.

Looks to me that that those who hate Armstrong for being bearish on metals fails to see his real arguement. We are in a dollar bull market and the last throws of deflation. Even Y2K is not going to reverse this trend. He called the peaked in the stock market to the day 4 years in advance. My bet he will be right on metals too.

The POG has been FORCED and kept low ...

*** To convince holders of Gold & Gold Stocks to sell
( Especially since many novice investors entered the Gold market when BRE-X was popular and POG was up. Novices purchased from the experts. )

*** So that Japan & the ECB can accummulate as much gold as possible
( They have been buying and still buying gold. I don't believe physical gold leaves the vaults under this "leasing" fiasco, it's all paperwork )

*** So that their investments in US Tbill/Bonds increase in value
( as POG goes down and interest rates go down, you US Bonds are worth more. You have more purchasing power to buy the gold they need and JAPAN NEEDS GOLD REAL BAD )

Stupid. No offense intended. Just straight talk.

A stupid trap.

Not only is he in the wrong paper ( DIS ) , he's also in the wrong metal ( PlatiNUMB ) ! Good Gold! Why won't he listen to the voices of reason?

That will fill the air waves from now until late October. If I'm right ,I will have the final laugh as stocks free-fall to 5717 by late Oct. Shocked? don't be.

.

I took a look at 60-day charts of both DROOY and HGMCY with Bollinger Bands.

BOTH charts show Bollinger Bands widening from a necked-down area, with the price riding the lower one.

Not a good time to buy, IMHO

Believe me I have given the boy sheer hell. Stupid is the word, but I tire of beating up on him. I boycotted Disney. Walt loved mickey, Ovitz the bottom line.If I come near a stock I get sick as a dog, let alone buy at the top, with 3 downgrades. Duh.

What's with the volume on DROOY?

Recently posts here have suggested that gold ( and silver ) leasing ( by CBs ) is somewhat of a "virtual" transaction, that is exists as a book-keeping exercise only; that nothing really happens to the physical. What evidence is there to suggest otherewise? Is leased gold really "leaving the vault", so to speak?

First of all, where does the CB gold reside to begin with? i.e. where is the vault? For the most part, CB gold is held in London and New York. Significant amounts of European gold ( esp. German gold ) was moved to New York after the war for fear the Red Army might pocket it as they swept the continent. Zurich holds a lot of private gold.

No one knows how much CB gold is in London, but all CB gold in New York is held by the NY Fed. These guys _do_ publish numbers ( well, GFMS does ) . What do the numbers say? Some years ago the NY Fed held 10,000 tons. Now they hold some 6000 tons. That's a 4000 ton drawdown. One can presume that a certain portion of this drawdown was due to gold leased and sold spot. And removed.

sam_a.

With all due respect to Armstrong and PEI - he does seem to know more than the average economist with regard to markets and capital flows, and has lots of worldwide contacts. However, beware of the short "soundbites" and articles. He often gives a quick overview of the future as he sees it, but neglects to emphasize that he will reverse positions at certain key levels. For eg., just 2 years ago he was bearish on bonds, bullish on gold, bullish on Australian Dollar.

So now he is bullish on bonds and US$, and bearish on metals. He says Y2K will be a nonevent. Well, he has less than 2 years to change his mind again. ( Rule of forecasters -If you are going to predict, predict often - you are bound to be right eventually )

I will listen to what he says, but will pay more attention to what the markets do.

JP - I don't follow your logic. Why is cash necessary for hyperinflation? If credit becomes sufficiently loose, everybody's Visa would work just fine at pumping up prices. A digital Weimar republic.

sam__a

Well, July ended my gold stocks on a VERY depressing note. My total portfolio of gold stocks lost 13% in one day...and that after losing over 20% just since April...and that after REDUCING to only 20% of its early 1997 value.

When will this ( @#$%^&* ) bear market in gold ever end???? Isn't it time for the blasted SHORTS to get what they have been dishing out to the goldbugs? I hope and pray that PM's go back to realistic levels soon, before I have to file bankruptcy and lose everything... and if any SHORTS are laughing at my tragedy, then you deserve NO sympathy when your turn comes for losing your shorts.

How, in God's green earth, can the powers that be KEEP gold down below production costs for a year? If this isn't manipulation, then I don't know what is... Why don't the gold mines wake up and take action against the manipulation?

--Frustrated ( also called "Skip" )

The way I see it, there is no physical move of gold. For example, you can buy gold certificates that tell you own gold. But do you really own gold when you buy a gold certificate? In truth, F*CK if I really KNOW!

To me, there's very little difference between a gold certificate and the american dollar or any paper money.

So when the lease occurs, the CBS are leasing a "promise" based on paper.

MORAL....
IF ANY OF YOU LURKERS WANT TO BUY GOLD....PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
DON'T BUY GOLD CERTIFICATES.

You'll only be giving brokers the ability to short your paper anyway. If you buy coins/bars, they can't short it cause YOU HAVE POSSESSION.

COMPRENDE AMIGO?

RIGHT ON !!!!!!!!!!!!! I would also add:

* Redemption-In-Kind
* Bank "Holiday"
* Lay-offs

Today's report was the worst of all possible world's for the market.
With 1.4% annual GDP growth, the profit growth necessary to sustain
a market selling at 28 times trailing earnings will not be there.
The Fed will also consider the pace too fast to cut short-term interest
rates. Consequently, the market will use current interest
rates to discount a stagnant future earnings stream. The result, once this
sinks-in will be a crash.

While we gold investors may continue to suffer over the short-term,
there are many factors breaking our way. A stock crash will force the
Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy, bail-out the bloated and
massively over-extended U.S. financial system and bring the dollar
down. When this happens, the gold bull will get underway.

The market is behaving badly and this is supposed to be a seasonally
strong time. What happens in September and October ( traditionally
the two poorest months for stocks ) ?

Well, some goldbugs ( including myself ) probably understand MOST of those numbers right now, except for 7, 10 and 17. I wish to God that I had waited one more year before cashing my DOW stocks and buying gold stocks and PM's.

Silverbaron, SWP1: After the bell I heard an analyst on Bloomberg Radio put in a plug for DROOY recommending it as a buy and saying that they will have earnings of .50 this year due to the current value of the Rand. I was on the right side of DROOY trades through the day and there did not seem to be enough shares to go around. As soon as someone would sell, some buying came in and the MM's would just kept lowering the bid to shake the weak hands. That made DROOY drop by an abmormally low amount. Notice that the ask is still a respectable 1 15/16, and that yesterday the last trade was a buy, while today the last three trades were sales. I managed to scoop up some of those since there were very few buyers at bid. DROOY normally trades with a B-A gap of 1/32 to 1/16 and at the end of the day the gap was 5/32! The last trade cleaned up the buyers at 1 13/16. IMO, unless POG gaps lower Sunday night, DROOY will gap up.

Good info -thanks. Makes me feel not quite so bad, sitting on a bunch of DROOY.

Repost from last night: The gold, once leased, is sold on the spot market ( which clearly imputes to me that the physical leaves the CB ) , The proceeds from sale are invested in Govt. Bonds at a much higher rate than the lease. The bonds are most probably left with the CB as collateral for 1-5 years, and then is paid to the borrower along with the net gain on the interest when the gold is repaid. NOTE: The CB can only lose on Govt. default or on sharply increased gold pricing. Therefore any CB with a large amount of gold "out on lease" would not want the price of gold to increase.

Is Gold really at 286.40?

Selby, your eyes do not deceive you. We have been drawn and quartered today, rode hard and put up wet. Gold kind of reminds me of a bad marriage. Just when you thought things couldn't get worse they do. We have been crucified on the paper cross today.

Thanks. Yeah - I am familiar with the mechanics of the PM lease market. I posted the note you refer to ( 19:37 ) because some were wondering if this lease market was "real"; i.e. if it had some sort of manifestation in the physical holdings of CBs. Some posts here had postulated that the lease business was just a "virtual" business. The gold gets leased and sold spot, but it never leaves the vault; i.e. it is just a paper game where every transaction is a push. I was looking for evidence that this was not the case, that real gold flows resulted from this sort of activity.

I feel the drawdowns at the NY Fed. constitute such evidence. Therein the rationale of my post.

cheers, Docter.

sam__a.

Friends,

Today I shorted a bunch of Platinum and stayed long on silver. I am about to buy more physical gold on the dropping prices. Anyone care to beat me up or cheer me on? Technically, it looks like a bearish head and shoulders on the platinum and the silver bottoms have been getting higher.

Silverbaron: Your're welcome. It's very unusual for an analyst to plug a gold stock much less, of all things, DROOY. I couldn't believe I heard it after I had bought some ( kinda feels like finding a $100 bill on the street ) . Now all we need is for someone to wake up and buy gold Sunday night and Monday morning ( or at least not sell any more! ) .

You understand the mechanisms involved in the gold lease arrangements - do you understand the motivation of the CB's to do this?

I know the standard answer - to earn interest on a non-performing asset. But CB's invent money out of nothing - why would they feel a need to earn interest? Why not just keep all of the gold and print some more paper?

Gold down and dow j. down big. This is new. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark! When someone figures out what happened let us know. Things are certainly not as before.YES?

Was the analyst specific about the time frame of the $.50 earnings estimate?

I did some preliminary estimates, and our learned friend John Disney also did, both with annualized earnings in the vicinity of $1/share. I haven't gone back and looked at the current production numbers and cash cost of production, but $.50 seems too low on an annualized basis.

Now are the days that test you strenght. When you are rewarded with higher prices you will feel wealthy, strong and smart - until mines worldwide are nationalized due to complete currency collapse.

Just a thought -

We watch together - Yes?

August 21 - 8315, a tradeable rally August 28 - 8700 end of October - 5717 you buy here.
end of February 7200

Although the report is very informative, I am getting sick of people who want to blame all their problems on the president. The market will fail, not because of anything the president does but because of simple market dynamics. At the end of a powerful rally there will always be a significant correction. The realism will always take out the overly optimistic. I can see it now, everyone will blame the president for ruining the markets when in fact they should be blaming themselves. Debt is not the answer, risk based on faith instead of realities will always fail. Presidential impeachment or no, this inflated market has to go.

If the market stays, then the dollar must inflate. It's all about value and who controls value ( power ) , and there are only a few things in this world that possess inherent value. Land is one, food is another, and gold, friends, etc. I am an investor who covers the fundamentals in life before playing with immaterial gain. It is important to recognise the difference. Build your house on solid ground and all that. And when everything else hits the fan, you will STILL be standing tall.

-c

Will be the result of foreign money leaving the country.

It's high time he got blamed for something, and it stuck to his teflon. He brought allm this on himself.

Good point, the CB's can distribute the printed money to their various government departments who can buy foreign treasuries and bonds and earn their precious fiat interest, even lower the value of their currency, until they cash in, but no, they dump a true possession like gold on the markets and run the risk of never having it returned to the vault.
Like the gold reserves they hold which are highly secretive, no one really knows how much money they print.
Doing it the way mentioned, the value of their gold reserves would be higher and they would be earning foreign exchange with the interest.
It has to be something sinister, like one day taking out the miners, or to give an impression of a weak currency which helps in their their global trade and politically placates their populace with more job opportunities.

How can I get a copy of your COT/Tsy bond info? Email is cdevoto@abts.net Many thanx, Charlie

But if you are going to blame him specifically for US market failure you might as well give him credit for the extremely long period of market success. I refuse to give him acknowledgemnt for either. Instead, I will blame him for sexual harrassment, obstruction of justice, lying, leasing the US Gov't to China, the Drug War, infringement on civil liberties and rights, etc, etc. Though these charges are absolutely unacceptable to me. At the same time, I will also give him credit for many things I thought were worthwhile ( most recently, blocking congressional attempts to obstruct my home state's decision to allow assisted suicide - just out today ) . I clearly want him out, but I am not going to pull a cover over my eyes and beleive that all the world's problems will go away once he is gone or that he has the ability to affect them at all. I think this position is very realistic and very sound.
-c

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Swingdown5.jpg
This oscillator is showing the worst reading since the bull began.
It does not look good.
Perhaps the bear is here.
As the swing falls deeper in the red,
The odds of a rally should increase.
Failure of this expected rally points to the bear being firmly in place.

This oscillator points to accumulation/distribution.
Seems like there's a swing to selling entering the market.

~~~~~~~~
Interesting to note the time of day of of gold's demise.
Ties in strongly with the Dow's plunge.

Blooper - !
You mean we got-a wait till then ? !

I can't hold my breath that long !

Oh well.....
back to yoga class.

Many market declines in the past have been marked by at least one day denoted as "the day the market crashed". I do not believe we are going to see any particular day stand out in such a fashion with this market.

The market will die a steep but steady decline through at least mid December. There may be some small rally days, but nothing of significance.

Levels will stay down until after January of '99 and will not regain the levels seen earlier this year until late in '99.

Gold will also decline thru about mid September of this year. It will then begin a slow climb, but will not regain the 300 level until about Februaury of '99.

Skip, I wish I could offer you some hope but I can't. I am off in my gold investments about the same percentages as you are. The difference is I no longer hold any hope gold will go back up and make me whole again. I lost what I lost because I did not do my homework. Gold is no longer a form of money and is strictly an industrial commodity. As such it has no where near the value it currently holds. The Central Banks have NOT been holding the price of gold down. Rather they have been carefully orchestrating the gradual decline of the price in order to cause the least pain possible. Gold will be half what it is today a yeear from now and half that a year after that. Bite the bullet, admit a mistake and move along with your life. I have. So too will you. 90% of the the goldbugs on this forum are probably shorting gold into the ground all the while they are talking about $30,000 an oz gold. I am not a strong man but I bet I could hold all the TRUE believers that the price of gold will rise with one arm.

You wrote:
"Today I shorted a bunch of Platinum and stayed long on silver. I am about to buy more physical gold on the dropping prices. Anyone care to beat me up or cheer me on? Technically, it looks like a bearish head and shoulders on the platinum and the silver bottoms have been getting higher."


Michael-
I would not wish to beat you up. Lower silver prices and higher platinum prices will do this in unpleasant enough fashion indeedy. I would, however cheer you on, I dont like to see anybody loose money. What are you paying on the platinum short? Last I heard lease rates made a platinum short prohibitive unless it drops to near13 year lows. Could happen, but I would not want to short a market itself in fundamental shortage.

I am long platinum, very slight long silver, and still heavily short gold. I just keep lowering the stops. The worst that could really happen now, is all my gold shorts will be stopped out in profits.

So you see we are at odds in this market thingie.

Good Luck

Really

Who is selling gold?
South Africa, Canada, Australia.
Among others.

OK

Gollum @ "Gold will also decline thru about mid September of this year. It will then begin a slow climb, but will not regain the 300 level until about February of '99."

Welcome aboard

OK

I don't see reasonably well off countries selling their stocks of gold.

...some desperate sellers??

If I lease a car, a photocopier or a Mill plant, does that give me the right to sell the goods I have leased? A lease agreement will make it quite plain that the goods do not belong to me.

I would very much appreciate to discover why the lease of gold, alone amongst such "goods", allows the lessee to onsell. Thereby depriving the lessor of the goods entirely for a fraction of their value.

If I was in the business of leasing cars, and I discovered one of my clients was selling them would I really want to continue to do business with a thief?

So, I wonder if anyone can show proof that the leased gold itself is being sold onto the physical market. This must not be an impossible thing to prove, if it be so. If gold is actually moving out of CBs it must have a trail, no? Are there any gold trackers?

Doubting is what I do best, perhaps.

TIA

of '98, not '99?

Canada is definately not selling Gold because we don't have any Gold to sell. Periodically the government reports on foreign reserve holdings etc and includes a statement on Gold. The statement says that we have 3 million oz of Gold which has remained constant since Oct 1996. The statement also says, and I am paraphrasing, while it is a policy of the Canadian government to divest itself of its' gold reserves we have not sold any gold since Oct 1996 due to low prices. Australia pretty much sold off all their Gold last July when they announced a 160 tonne sale. Argentina likewise sold off all their Gold last year including ancient Gold coins. If you want the real sellers over the last three years or so look to the Dutch and Belgium. Most recently I suspect Portugal has joined that group as part of the ECB initiative.

Aurator: I suspect the difference lies in the frangibility of commodities. The examples you used do not enjoy that same quality. Replacing your leased Yugo with another of like model, will probably not pass muster with the lessor.

Copper is an industrial commodity, Zinc is an idustrial commodity, Nickel and even silver are industrial commodities.

Gold is not. The amount of overhang in central bank vaults, exchange warehouses, private hoards, etc, is far in excess of it's indutrial uses.

Gold is an overweight Elvis Presley, a toy, a plaything, that dreams of it's past days of glory, but will never return to them.

Gold is a thing of conquistadors, searches for lost cities, and Klondike gold rushes. Of days when a farm could be tilled with a pair of mules.

The wild west live now only as dried up rotting boards in forgotten ghost towns.

Gold still lives, but it lives in second class neighborhoods surrounded by old mine dumps.

Gold in the past has had the distinction of having a price that went up more or less when stocks went down, a "negative beta" as it were. So some look to gold as a kind of hedge when equities decline. It's actual correlation, however is more to the bond market than the stock market inasmuch as it is more of an inflation hedge than an anti-equity hedge.

Gold has had a past as a haven for flight capital in times of war, as has diamonds and other real ( and portable ) assets.

Because of it's past some look for disaster in the markets or on the political fields as a raison d'etre to hold gold, but this is somewhat akin to hoping that Elvis might shed some weight and grow young in the face of adversity.

Gold is not going to grow strong as the automobile did, as radio did, as television did, as the telephone did, as the computer did, or as the internet will.

Find the right time, the right stock, and buy and hold an internet stock if you are looking for a chance to slowly grow wealthy. Perhaps it will be another Microsoft. Hopefully not another Studebaker.

Gold is not for buy and hod to grow rich. It is a safety net for in case the Y2K monster devours the computer world, or India goes to nuclear war with Pakistan. It is a hope for those who dream of some kind of return to it's glory of past monetary basis. It is a speculators plaything for the game of short versus long.

And it looks nice.

You had better stick to gold. The last several corrections are eeriely similar. Check 87, it's as good as any. I am casting pearls out here to people who don't believe me, so I will keep all further posts to myself. I have been to freehearted with what market savy I have.

Gold will tank in October. Just like the other stocks, When foreigners leave our market they will sell gold also.

Naw, just another February.

Do you know the price that Australia got for the gold it sold just before the Asian crash?

Yeah - your standard answer is the CB's "public" answer -- they're "putting their assets to work." The real answer, of course ( and I am guessing you'll agree here ) is that CB's see a rising gold price as a challenge to the CBs' authority. A high gold price mean they're not doing their job; it means that their fanciful creation ( paper money ) is being held in increasing disrepute. A high gold price is a slight against the central banker's sense of professionalism. It is an insult.

Gold is bad, paper is good. ( repeat ten times.... )

sam__A.

When foreign money decides to leave, it will leave at once. That is why October is crash month. It is also when 3rd quarter profits are announced. If this is too hard for you, just continue on.

Oh, I've seen the comparisons of this market to the crash of '29, the dip of '87, the great Nikkei bear crash, et al, and there are similarities. After all, bubbles are bubbles. You senn one you've seen em all.

This one will be a little different though.

You and Castro agree. Maybe not the best company, but he is no fool. He was visiting Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson. P.J., JP, hmm.

I lived in Jamaica for 1.5 years. All I can say is it is a great place to visit.

Castro sees world economic collapse
http://cnn.com/WORLD/americas/9807/31/jamaica.castro.ap/

sharefin: Thanks -- today is not what I expected. So much for the market rally. Good thing I was too busy to buy. Should have sold all equities yesterday.
All: Did you all have a look at Matt Drudge's latest blockbuster?
( See Avalon 18:00 ) Apparently Monica was somehow relaying messages to Linda Tripp that Kathleen Willey was doing things that could endanger the lives of her children. I would guess that Monica was overhearing things, rather than being a messenger.
I have seen the 'Clinton Chronicles' tapes as read a number of articles describing shady individuals that did unsavory things to people who stood in WJC's path to the presidency. Over 30 murder/suicides logged. This is the first time I've seen anything even remotely like this discussed in mainstream US media, although The Economist, and a number of European periodicals have touched on it. The American liberal press virtually ignored it.
This is a very serious matter, because if the president is linked to a 'hit squad' or even some shady private eye types that use Gestapo tactics, WJC is history. So are the markets.
Yesterday, I thought the bad news about the president had ended, and the markets were going back up. Now it appears that his teflon coat is decomposing -- portrait of Dorian Grey like ( apologies to aurators literary skills ) .
Golden Cheesehead, blooper: You were right to remain bearish. But don't think you can escape into gold stocks. Continuous bad news about WJC will probably leak out as the Clinton team unravels. It is my guess that since his popularity is so widespread, the dissilusionment will be widespread also. Think of all those liberals that have idolized WJC, and now news of Gestapo-like techniques of threatening a mother's children are coming out. That is no surprise to us, but think about all of those millions of liberals milling about, totally demoralized. That is like what happened to Peewee Herman that eventful day in the theater when he dropped his pants -- it caused total disillusionment in his fans. What is happening to WJC is not something that Hollywood or a lawyer can fix.
My guess is that a major portion of all the bad news we have heard about WJC is about to become public -- except the Mena stuff, which is too hot for both Democrats and Republicans.
So -- we must stay out of all equities -- gold and non gold -- until this blows over, or until gold shows us a clear rally. Eventually the gold equities will rally once the people get over the initial shock of seeing WJC's real ( Dorian Grey ) portrait. When anger, and distrust of authority begin in a big way, I would guess our gold rally will have begun.
Despite the trauma the American People are about to face, I look forward to everything with some excitement, because it means that we to be live witness to a cyclic pattern in human behavor -- we are at a major turning point -- much of it due to 'the awakening' on the net. And turning points are times when old concepts breakdown, and new ones form. What relieves me is that the new ones ( so far ) look better than the old ones. We just need to be careful that we do not go down the totalitarian path. We still have the best Democratic system in the world, and we can still patch it back up. We do not need to destroy it to survive by backing another Hitler. Good thing the Clinton drive to reach the top, and the Clinton charisma are not concentrated in one individual. If we get out of our current mess relatively unscathed, we may not be as lucky the next time -- unless the people become more active in their expression of political opinions, and remain so.

Selby: I don't think I have ever seen a reported CB sale that included a statement of selling price. About the most that is ever reported is that the sale was conducted at some time in the past and occasionally includes a stated quantity.

What's "the Mena stuff".

A link would be appreciated.

Thanks

We ( the market ) are standing atop the Empire State building, value wise. That there will be a period of free fall is overwhelmingly possible.

Earl
Thanks for your reply, but I don't yet understand why a CB would lend gold to anyone but a producer. If then the producer onsells, well at least the CB/Lessor could take a security over the gold in the ground. Otherwise their seems to be little to motivate a CB for these low lease rates. Is that what this lease market really is? A bankers' play for the producers? A mechanism by which banks can get control over gold in the ground?

I thought your June 00 380 calls purchase was particuarly adroit. Perhaps the only risk ( ? ) is liquidity risk if the rules get changed like Comex did to the Hunts, and paper does actually burn in ANOTHER scenario.

Tight lines

Your post expresses what many here feel about their gold investments: Frustration and near desperation. The only person I see on this site gleefully relishing anothers losses is bloop to EB. Not a nice thing to do, kick a person when they are down.

Many who find themselves in your situation viewed the market in one direction but, never in history, has a market gone only one way. I have written many tens of thousands of words over the last year explaining exactly why gold is going down, exactly how far it would go down, and when it will stop going down. For these efforts many shouted and screamed and called me names. But gold has done exactly what I said, yes?

This is not tooting my own horn - not that I will not play a medley of my greatest hits from time to time - but an effort to once again get people hereabouts to recognize that shorting is not evil, nor is it wrong, nor is it some shell game. It is the way the markets function. Every single long contract has a short on the other side of it. Do you realize when you gold goes up, the shorts loose? Yet some here, who would cry for empathy, are the first to gleefully shout from the treetops that the gold shorts are dead, long live the bull.

Viewing this market from the long side only is like the sun rising in the East and setting in the.. East..??..?? Lurker 777 has made some posts of late about how he hedges his physical buys with gold puts, he limits his risk. He is a goldbug, he to believes gold is the place to be, but he limits his risks.

I also notice that most who are loosing money here are loosing it in mining stocks. How are mining stocks any different from any other stock? Any stock is a debt owed to you by the company of issue. The certificate is worthless, yet the "gotta hold the physical" people are only too eager to wade into mining stocks, historically one of the riskiest ways to invest. These people will scoff at the Dow and then go buy a gold stock while gold is suffering under the twin weights of CB and producers sales and a viscous 2 year bear market. Yet, the folks on this site are far better educated than 99% of all humans concerning gold. How do they misread it so? Methinks it is through the heart that gold is purchased, and through the heart it rends its awful truth: It goes up.. and down.

Now, to toot my own horn:
Silver confounds me on occasion, and I got caught short in the initial run up on the news of Buffets buys last December. I bought platinum too soon this year, but made up for it by believing what the market was telling me and buying more when it fell. I didnt get $403, but I took a lot of profits at $394, holding on to some for the next rise.

But nobody on this site has called gold better than I.

Nobody.

Not Hep, Not F thingie, Nor neither either any other.

I have called golds moves to the dollar in the last six months - up and down - and within $10 in the last 2 years. And I explain in great detail why. I dont just say gold will do this or that and not give a reason. When the price goes down, and the news comes out some months later, we learn that gold went down for the reasons I explained those many months ago. This is not inside knowledge or some sort of broker secret. Anybody here can see all I see, because I post it all right here.

This is a gold site isnt it?

Why then do so few listen?

Even when faced with facts.

It is a puzzlement.

And it is very frustrating.

Sigh

There will be a respit between Nov. 1 and the end of February. End of February : 7200.
October low 5717.

Gollum: I agree this one will be different. But in way we cannot imagine right now. If there is a crash in the fall it would be most widely heralded in history. As you said earlier, maybe it will just go into a steep decline without fanfare or fireworks.

RJ: I do not have the connections that you do, but I can say one thing by analogy: There comes a time when any of us will sell their gold, no matter how cheap it is. And -- that is when we have sold everything else except a roof and the clothes on our backs. Everyone needs to eat -- and if you must sell your gold to do it, you will do it at any price.
So -- when gold goes down like this, it strongly suggests that a country is in serious trouble out there. And it won't be Indonesia or South Korea.

How do you think a good 'ol southern homeboy with a tainted past like WJC was able to beat a yankee like Bush who was still in the full glory of having been on watch during the collapse of the Soviet and the resounding defeat of the fourth largest army in the world in dessert storm.

It wasn't just WJC's pretty smile. He had help from a little Texas rooster among others.

Thanks anyway

More like the World Trade Center. Yes, it's a long agonizing way down, but it will NOT be short and sweet.

Nothing orderly about this CRASH. Hide and watch. There is something bad wrong in the technicals, however, none of you will listen, so go on and lose your fortunes, it's only money. Your egos are much more important.

There are many on this forum who are veterans of different wars,
and who put their lives on the line to defend our country. We
all took an oath. We backed this with everything that we have.
Today, we see a Commander-in-Chief who would scoff at us, and
who makes mockery of the highest public office in the world.
So, we strike back with adverse comments about an embarrassing
president. We are not the guilty ones.

I agree wholeheartedly.

I was referring to gold producers from the three of the four largest gold producing nations on earth, not the governments of their respective countries.

Producers are selling, they will continue to do so until the dollar falls. Hell, the lawyers even let me put that in writing in last weeks PM review, and lawyers are loath to let me put anything in writing.

I hope that clears things up, yes?

Yes

For those who weren't apying attention earlier.

What's your call on Gold now?

...SWP

Gollum,

If you really feel gold is worth nothing, I hope you have sold all you
own. Let me just remind you that gold's limited industrial use is solely
due to its high price. Gold has unique conductive, reflective,
malleability, and corrosion resistant properties that make it unique and
essential in many high tech industries. But of course, since high-tech
applications are dropping with time, demand for gold should also drop -
correct ???

You are going to have to live with that prediction. Joe sixpack will leave with the foreigners Gollum. High expectations say you'r wrong.

Are there any gold trackers?

Yes......... I

ndeedy

Good point. Dumb question.

Will sell at the bottom. Otherwise I would agree with you Gollum. But they always do.

Aurator: I tend to agree with your last premise; that it's silly to loan it to non-producers for subsequent sale. But after all, we are discussing bankers here. Very much like those who were busily engaged in "recycling petro-dollars" 20 years ago. As I recall their actions were predicated on some notion that Sovereigns were not capable of becoming deadbeats.

As others have said earlier, I think it's a matter of economic hubris and a concern for the "rightful" position of Central Banking in the affairs of men. Strong gold prices give lie to the notion and that cannot be abided at any cost. Even at risk of their very scalps.

As an example, someone a few days ago, related an anecdote involving a young economist working for a CB and who became incensed at the suggestion that gold could or would serve some plausible role in world monetary affairs. Such is the state of mind those who place power above all else. Even the safety of that with which they are entrusted.

As for the calls?? Only time will tell. .... As rapidly as the world is undergoing change of the negative kind, I am betting that they cannot hold a lid on gold for the next 2 years...... We will watch this together. Yes? ....... In the meantime, I do share your concern for ultimate payability of the darned things. The system cannot be trusted. At any level.

I didn't say gold was worth nothing. Anybody who feels gold is worth nothing cab feel free to give me all they have. I said it's not worth what it used to be, nor will it ever again regain that pinnacle of glory.

Gold has many unique prporties that give it a place in quality industrial equipment, but only a small percentage of gold is put to industrial use. It's very own unique proprties make a little go a long way. Gold's price is not driven by industrial demand.

A man should know his limitations. That includes seperating the glitter from the dross.

Almost 40%. By end of October. Hard to believe. Check Microsoft Investor. Click on market ( for market update ) . Lots of people say it is expected.

Wall Street's rocket scientists have ratcheted the dollar up against gold and have used paper gold and the Asian crisis to do so.

Still the man on the street in SE Asia that held gold did better with gold than if he had held the local currency or even dollars. Media reports say he was forced to sell amd they are probably to some degree true.

The well off SE Asians holding depreciating currencies aresaid to have bought T-bills, leading to still a stronger dollar relative to the surrended home currency.
That this group that I'm sure holds much more gold than the former did not surrender it, speaks of their wisdom. It's better dumping your weak currency for dollars that can be converted to gold at a later date if need be.

Pull up!!!! Pull up!!!!

swp1: It seems that alot of people still don't know about WJC's political birthplace. I can't give you a website, but I do know we have one poster from Mena who does. If he does not post tonight, James Earl Davidson's monthly newsletter is filled with information. It is not pleasant reading.
I can give you a nutshell summary wihtout the 'literally' gory details.
The Iran/Contra operation of the Reagan era needed at least one base of operations so that money could be generated without knowledge of Congress. Certain individuals we will never no about chose several sites for the sale of Mexican and South American drugs to US drug trafficers in exchange for money and weapons. How did they go about finding suitable locations? Just find a part of the country where the entire government was effectively a corrupt monolithic machine so that the entire law enforcement system could be bought out. If any honest police officers speak up, the corrupt system could quickly silence them. Well, Arkansas was ideal because their system was nearly totally Democratic for years with little opposition -- and corrupt. So -- Mena Arkansas.
My guess is that after this money conduit started up, several things happened. Certain people in the Mena operation began to see what power they could gather with this mountain of money, and they also spotted WJC's natural political skills. So -- both worked together to launch WJC's political career! I have always wondered how an unknown from Arkansas could expode onto the public scene so quickly -- unless he had incredibly deep pockets behind him.
But -- what I am describing to you will never come out publically, because both Democrats and Republicans were involved in the Iran Contra affair. Hope this helps -- the details of the story are elsewhere, and so disturbing, that they seem to come right out of a John Grisham novel. I am still waiting for the hero to step forward.
There is one last point. If such a group exists as I have been alluding to ( no solid proof ) -- what do you think WJC's prospects would be if he is considered damaged goods?

Yep. I have made my prediction and I will live with it. I feel pretty confident about it though. The market decline has been unfolding pretty much since mid March as I thought it would and I haven't seen anything new yet. First they take the small caps out while holding the index mainstays up. That's pretty well done now. Next they start to fold the tent.

Market bubbles are like mountain streams on their way to the ocean. Some plunge over the edge of precipices in great waterfalls. This one is the mighty Colorado. Lot's of rapids, but no Niagra.

If you believe the market will crash in October as I do. Foreign money leaves. When invesyment leaves, the dollar tanks. We will have a dollar catastrophe, and a gold liftoff like yoy've never seen. Shortly after the Fed would raise intrest rates. Bonds would do it for them. There goes your economy.

Crash, Gold takes off, but the banks won't let that happen. Neither would bonds. Foreigners would cash in bonds too causing rates to go straight up. Thusly damper on gold and a resulting depression, as the gold Bull is born.

I hope.

It's late and I am going to bed. Sometime if I remember I will explain why this market id different. It may well have the greatest decline in the history of the market, could even herald the much touted depression, but I don't think it will do it some one or two day plunge of 1200 points. This market is different from everyone that has come before it.
This one is run by management.

When the music stops, and there are no chairs, you run for the exit in unison.

It is hard to predict the future industrial demand for any commodity. It
would be interesting to know ( I don't offhand ) how the catalytic
convertor impacted the demand for palladium. However, I do know that the
precious metals are not merely precious because they look good. They
are extremely precious because they are irreplaceable and essential to
many industries that will always be here. The potential applications
for gold are enormous and HIGHLY constrained because of its current
price. If you recall, recently, IBM came up with a new copper based
process for interconnects on circuit boards. Copper has outstanding
conductive properties relative to traditional aluminum. The quantities
of copper used per chip are obviously extremely small, however, how
many chips will we manufacture per year in 5 years. Gold could be far
superior in that same application. Gold is already used on contacts and
printed wires among many other applications. At the right price, it would
become an economically viable replacement for many of these materials,
i.e. the incremental cost per part would be outweighed by the increased
performance. What is that price - I dont know, but as you point out, the
relatively small amounts involved coupled to the significant cost per
component/chip probably does not put that far off.

Earl

Lest I incur the wrath of Tolerant1 I must stand up and proclaim that I did not intend to defend the intelligence of bankers in my previous posts. No, I have oft witnessed the witlessness of bankers here in NZ and have read too many accounts of bankers' folly to defend any banker that is not blood. Of banker follies one of my favourite would have to be Beep Jennings' and the Penn Square Bank. Continental Illinois. If you're gonna do a multi-million $ deal like that, I guess a table napkin is as good as a lawyers' fine vellum.

I take your point. Ain't no folly like a banker's folly.

Gollum: "This one is run by management." ..... Excellent point.

It's going to be orderly. Bullhockey. This market is so overbought, that when they head for the exits, it will be a calamity. From dizzying heights.

blooper: And, most of them no longer post anymore. My opinion is that we will have a long, bear market with ups and downs, but no crash, as long as AG is at the helm. You should read Oldman's posts to get a better idea of why -- WJC's fortunes and the markets fortunes are one in the same. They both go up and down together. Why this is so I do not know, but I can speculate. The same liberal euphoria that fills the news media also fuels the markets, and runs WJC's political machine.
A good clue that the party is really over will be the day WJC is no longer able to raise money.

Bull. It was managed on the way up. Management will lie, until it becomes evident, then they will lose control. The fllod gates will open. "get me outta here".

My current opinion of gold It is here:

http://www.MONEX.com/mt.html

I dont know if they posted this weeks Review yet, so last week s may still be up..

Pardon me for not going into long explanations this eve regarding golds poor performance of the last two years. I have made the argument so many times on these pages, I get tired of retyping it. Besides, I will be meeting a young lass who is the quintessential model of Japenese beauty before this night wears too much further. She is ethnically Japanese, but third generation American, born and raised in these here Merkin States. Long raven hair, almond eyes, olive skin, teeth that almost radiate whiteness, all set in a petite and gorgeous body that houses a wonderfully quick and witty mind, which is truly the sexiest part of any woman, yes?

But I indeedy do digress. To the point: Ill try to dig up some of my prior posts that make these arguments, but when I do, nobody says anything. I have proven, using simple mathematics, that gold has been one of the worst buy and hold investments of the last 20 years. I have posted these numbers a couple times. Each time I do, the chorus of shouters stop yelling at me and grow strangely quiet. Nobody has yet to refute any of the numbers I put forth, but many will say the numbers lie.

Mathematics is written into the fabric of the universe. Witness pi, or any one of an infinity of mysterious and "perfect" numbers. Mathematics obeys laws. Short of inventing a new branch of mathematics ( why not, Newton did it? ) the numbers cannot be refuted.

Gold has been a horrible buy and hold investment. Everybody who bought gold and held it, at any time in the last 20 years, has lost money. One Squillion percent of them. Everybody. All them folks. This is a fact. Only those that bought it at one price and SOLD it at a higher price made money. Gold holders have not only lost money on the gold, but the money would have risen what, 1200 - 1300 % if compounded and properly spread about in a fairly conservative portfolio?

This would seem to take the luster of this noble metal.

Dont shoot me, I didnt make it happen

Im only a messenger.

Yes

RJ,

Hope your date goes well, however, would like to give you some food for
discussion on you date. Given exponentially ( small exponent, but
exponent nevertheless ) increasing demand and a
finite supply, what would happen to the price of a commodity?

Pardon me for saying this, but you don't know crap from shinola.
Go back and check on markets with a bubble. The japaneese market for example. Bubbles burst. Go to school on this before trying to pontificate.

Help!
I cannot remember the name of the merkan famous for his contraptions. Their is an Englishman who is also know for his contraptions called Heath Robinson.

It's just that Golem and his levers, stairs and pulleys puts me in mind of this man. BTW in my dik~shunnery ( rhymes with nunnery ) golem follows "Gold Tranche" all that follows is from Collins English Dictionary:

Gold tranche n. a former name of reserve tranche.


Reserve tranche n. the quota of 25% to which a member of the IMF has unconditional access. Prior to 1978 it was paid in gold and was know as the gold tranche.

Rube Goldberg?

OK.

regarding island tops and bottoms in currencies:
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha25.gif
you will observe Monday.......OK? ( it happened mid June too )
and.....
And looky here.....early June...ANOTHER one
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha16.gif
well well well......ya gotta love a good island bottom.....or a thong cladded bottom for that matter..... ( grin ) .

I'll throw this one in because the pattern is so......... ( how do I put it ) ........so freaking obvious. Any currency traders out there been watching ( and trading making good money ) this one????? ( $$$$$$$$ ) !!!
btw...it is weekly...and duh....did you all go long before close today?
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha58.gif

oh yeah........plat broke wrong today.......my seasonals ( one of 'em anyway ) said to sell Oct. plat today for 81.5% success.......I like to go against the grain sometimes. Oh well. We'll get 'em next time. At least gold did great today................ ( ? ) ......hmmmmmmm....

and....... did anyone notice how HEAVY the flies were today?? It must be all the bullshirt layin' around....... ( swat ) ........ ( splat ) .....

do not feel for me RJ....I am not down....no way.......I do what I do I make my bed I risk my own money I do my own homework I stand up for what I beleive I will not claim to cast pearls and I will not keep all furhter posts to myself ( that is a direct quote ) AND I will not say the last two statements and then continue to cast pearls and most of all I will not go on and on and on AND ON AND ON AND ON AND ON and on and on blah blah blah blah......etc.etc.etc.etc................ ( whew ) ........I am getting tired of myself so I will retire from here to eat fine food and drink fine spirits.........uh huh..............ohmy!


away...to the weekend........perhaps I'll go to ride the matterhorn.




go gold......... ( ugh ) ...




perhaps I should blindly listen to someones market 'savvy'.... ( or is that savy? ) ............if they will continue

Nothing is orderly about a battleground in retreat, when men are running for their lives. Overlay 1998 with 1997 and tell me what you see. That goes for any of you who want to see the exact similarities.

blooper: I think you mentioned this one. This is probably the strongest reason for why the US markets won't implode all by themselves. The US markets are becoming the site of last resort for other markets much weaker than ours. Have you been following the Mexican index? It has never regained the 1994 peak, rallied for a while, and has been going down steadily for a year. What about all those frustrated Japanese who will be able to investanywhere come Jan 1999?
If the US markets falter, all the 'flight to safety' money flew to the US already, and if AG had resigned, effectively ending their remarkably effective PPT, then I might aggree with you.
I don't think bad news revelations about WJC will cause a crash. Didn't happen in Nixon's time. And the liberals still control the media ( except the net )

jonesy YES

I was thinking goldrube.

That's it! Golem, coming right after "gold" in the dicksonary is driving a rube GOLDBERG device.

Now I am away, and content. thanks

Was it orderly. How many years has it taken them?
Our bubble is a nightmare we will witness. No one will manage this. Get real.

Aurator: Rube Goldberg? or Thomas Alva Edison?

Foreign money will leave when 3rd quarter profits are announced. AG can't control that. No one on God's green earth can. Clinton will be the most hated president of all time. Not his fault? Neither was the boom.

Maybe I'm wasting my breath on you..... I wish you a good night.

With all the disinformation that hits from all sides its difficult to come to a logical decision. After running the crap is run thru my feabil mind, silver seems to be the best bet, I mean, how low can it go, even when Ted and Andy blaspheme it. but as a mining investor few producers impress me.

Take a little time and talk to Gollum. He is smart and knowledgeable regarding silver. I know nothing about it, except that Jake Bernstein says it is going to rally. Check Gollum.

Selby,

If I remember correctly Gold was about $325 at the time and it fell to $312 or so. They mentioned at the time of the sale that they had sold in the previous 6 months so I assume they got $330 -$340. What I find interesting htough is that the aus$ was about U$.80 at the time and recently was as low as US$0.59 now about US$0.60. In fact every country that has initiated a gold sale campaign has seen their currency fall dramatically. Argentina is an exce[tion because they have their currency
pegged to the U.S.$.

These things you say of gold are true, however
Try an experiment, if you have the time, the coins, and the oven
Heat up a gold coin to 500 degrees, likewise a platinum coin
Put both on a plate on a table in the middle of the room.

Which one looks pretty, and probably pretty hot?

And which one is converting all molecules of ozone
That comes in contact with its surface
Into oxygen and other harmless stuff ?
( Not the cool Ozone, as in the Layer That Protects
But the ozone that is the component of smog
That gives it a nasty yellow - brown color
And odoriferous offerings on our offended nasal passages. )

When considering the value of a thing, consider its substitutes. Indeedy some alternatives may not be as wondrous and efficient as others, but they get the job done all the same. For the vast majority of electric applications, silver or copper are fine enough conductors to accomplish the task of carrying electricity. Sure gold works pretty good, but other metals work nearly as good.

When considering the value of PGMs - platinum, palladium. rhodium, etc., consider also the substitutes.

What.??? There arent any? Just what DO you mean?

This: many metals carry electricity, none other have the catalytic properties that so readily solves so many environmental problems as PGMs. More nations every year require their citizens to own PGMs as a matter of law. Last I heard, the law took away gold, but never required citizens to own it.

One is useful

The other is indispensable

Righty O


RJbegazinginthealmondeyesofbliss

blooper: I agree with you on one item about 1987, and that is what could happen if the US dollar is dumped in a big way. The US dollar peaked 3 years earlier however, and was steadily going down. I and others have posted about this, and have been one the lookout for a drop in the US dollar of 5% or more in 3 days ( approx guess ) . My point about 1987 is that the Japanese ( in particular ) had watched their US investments drop nearly 40% before they did anything at all. With current conditions, a delay of years might also occur before foreign investors pull the plug on the US. Why don't you tell us which currency foreign investors are moving to? Or what WJC scandal would be so bad that foreign investors would drop this country like it had the plague?
We will eventually have a crash. But each thing in life comes in its time. Still have a few market chairs left -- and the US dollar is still king.

Pi the way I learned it is anything BUT perfect. Unfortunately for the Pythagoreans who jumped off cliffs over it's irrationality.

CDE: Cour d'laine mines I believe this to be profitable.

I thought he meant 1998, but I'm not sure. I do know that he sounded VERY bullish on DROOY and did not mention any other stocks. I think they said he is the manager of a gold fund, but did not catch which. It can't hurt that the whole investment community heard it on the way home from work. Is your $1 est. calendar 1998 or mid-98 to mid-99? I'd be curious to see some of your and JD's base bumbers. I have DROOY's 1997 annual report as reference. BTW, it's the best looking annual report I've ever seen. They sure don't spare any expense in preparing it.

Almond eyes indeedy! Believe me he doesnt really talk the way he writes. Anyway, hes mine for the rest of the night. He never should have shown me how he posts messages. Goodnight. Is this the power button? I think it is.

Kim

Intrest rates also had been raised twice in 1987. I don't care. I look at charts. Screw the fundamentals. Overlay 87 with 98 and tell me what you see. Do it.

Good morning to all Downunder, who will now calm the uproarious turmoil of those upover. I must admit I was part of the commotion this time.
Hard to see egg all over your face in only 24 hours - but when that big wave comes in, you are washed away if you do not turnsideways. Sometimes sideways is not enough if you guess wrong, and the next thing you know you have swallowed some sand when you hit the bottom.
But -- most importantly you do not blame others or ridicule them for their folly.
I have yet to meet a human who is right 100% of the time. Wonder why.
Been, there, done that.

Waht's your point? Why do you omit the U.S producers? They are forward selling also.

"I was referring to gold producers from the three of the four largest gold producing nations on earth, not the governments of their respective countries."

"Producers are selling, they will continue to do so until the dollar falls. "

This makes no sense at all!! What are you saying Producers are selliing until their dollar falls. The Canadian dollar has fallen from about $.76 last year to about $.66 now. However you might want to look at the economic factors i.e a slowing economy, high GDP/debt ratio, the ubiquitous flight-to-quality away from every currency and into to the U.S. dollar. Which will eventually lead the U.S into very serious problems, some of which are evident now. To summarize producers are selling to survive and so are American producers.

blooper: I think we agree on that matter. We both know what to look for if the US dollar tanks. That would be rocketfuel for gold.

The U.S. Trasury runs's short......
then,

it prints "IOU's" -- bills, notes & bonds
....
and sells them
...
to who-/whom- ever
is eager/willing ... to buy...

purchased at the current price/cost
of interest-rates.

When the "free-market" buyers are not interested enuf
to buy the Treasury's debt-paper;
then, the Federal Reserve steps in,
willingly,
and unconditionally.

They have the ability to write a check for
all the excess/left-over ... Treasury debt paper,
not previously bought ....
by 'private' buyers.

The Fed. Reserve banks have this ability because
they have been granted, legally,
and - I might add- un-constituitonally,
-which has happened gradually over time-:

the right
to write checks
out of thin air,
with-which to buy the Treasury's
extra/excess/otherwise-unwanted/otherwise-unpurchased
debt-paper.

As if this weren't enuf
--to get you/me/us/humanity, plus our ancestors...
to turn over & over in our sleep - or their graves-- ..:

Then the U.S. Treasury
is not only - thus enabled to keep paying
its ever-more-exorbitant/expanding bills/debts...

But also:
the Fed. Reserve as well,
can take this Treasury debt-paper - and call it ASSETS !
for them - their accounts.

The Fed Reserve tends to deposit these "assets" ...
( -actually debt )
in various, 'willing', commercial banks,
who are then granted newly defined assets.

And upon these out-of-thin-air assets...
they can then offer loans/credit....
in a
reserve-based and defined,
fractional-reserve banking system.

So, the Fed. Reserve's deposits ( -Treasury debt PAPER )
which become .... 'asset-reserves' ....
in a variety of commercial banks,
and in the accounts of
other 'commercial' gov't-debt-paper dealers.

In a FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING SYSTEM,
these 'asset-reserves'
are used to loan credit out on various
ludicrous
ratios....
even, at times...
at 10 to 1, or even
at 20 to 1 ratios/basis.....
thus
expanding money & credit..
at a geometrically expanding/accelerating rate.

So,
this may give a clue as to why real estate values, for one
first sky-rocketed,
and then, more recently,
have collapsed .....
in Hong Kong,
in China,
and in all the Asian Tigers.

Just 'who'...
is kidding 'who'
in this world-wide
masquerade?

The currencies of increasing numbers of nations
around the world, are in turmoil,
having sold their individual nation's souls
and thus enslaved their citizens
to this
ponzi - scheme ....
of something of value ....created out of nothing....
a nothing,
that is defined in & by
the artificailly created
& politically manipulated
credit & currency
as defined by the U.S. paper-dollar
and by Western nations' central banks'
and their credit-engineering.

The 20th century evolution of
the U.S. Fed. Reserve Bank's centralized banking monopoly
on money & credit,
are coming full-circle .....
as the chickens of false/artificial money & credit,
are coming home to rooost.

Although we....
in the complacent, sated 'West',
may pretend...
with phoney pretense, and pronouncement....

to look with condescending disapproval
and urgent economic reprimands,

upon our
Asian brothers & sisters ( -nations/economies/governments ) ...
in the 'East' ...

the fact is:
the seeds of this current, spreading ...
world-wide currency & credit collapse

were planted and spawned right here...
at home.... in the good ole U.S.A.

We can cajole & scoled Japan all we want,
we can IMF-exploit S. Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, & Thailand..
and whose the next falling domino....or two...
Russia - ?
and
then who ?....

Though we may couch our
finger-in-the-dike
denial & wishful thinking
thru IMF-rescue disguises & exploits - to wit...
the fact is:
we live in a global economy that is crumbling.

It is toppling down upon us, all......
yellow, red, brown & white..
makes no difference...

in the reflection
of truth's
golden light.

We - humanity - have upon us,
an economic winter,
that none among us, are even able
to comprehend.

Rooted in the seemingly benign, benevolent, and credit-generous
U.S. dollar & dollar denominated credit insitutions...
the global economy
has evolved into a paper-currency & debt-ridden world
that is divorced
from it's once gold-backing U.S. dollar standard.

Thus, this inverted pyramid
of geometrically growing credit/debt,
un-bridled & un-restricted
by divorcement from any gold-convertibility, discipline, and accountability,

has spawned & spread & exported itself,
into a world-wide cancer ....
of crashing currencies
contracting credit
crushing debt
careening governments
and
mushrooming millions of the destitute....
seething in discontent
and
contemplated revolution.

Ultimately, this gold-divorced,
paper-money, and
artificial-credit created
INSANITY...
must, of neccessity & natural law,
feed upon itself.

Peter is robbed to pay Paul:
for, as economic winter rolls around,
as it always must,
and the borrower can no longer pay on his interest & principle;
he borrows more,
just to pay on the interest on his growing indebtedness.

And so the self-feeding...
and self-annihiliation
of the golobal economy..
rooted in an
artificail credit
and paper currency
of
floating/sinking
currency relationships...
continues.

When the inverted pyramid
of the global economic structure,
finally,
completely
crumbles,
....
those who survive,
will dig in the rubble,
and they will find
gold.

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com

P.S.
Altho the current... economic "Indian-summer" ...
stage/phenomenon
in the U.S. & Europe,
may delude the 'few-chosen'
in the western/industrialized/technology-advanced nations...
for a brief while - yet - longer ....

the storm-clouds of economic winter are gathering.

The Asian Tigers are being crushed...... by:
the corrupting seige of -
mushrooming debt defined by the largess & greed
of Western creditors,
and .....by:
their crashing national currencies
whose determined value,
falls victim to the credit-manipulators
and currency-corrals...
of the dominant economic powers.

Without an independent, historically validated, universal, unconditionally accepted & trusted
standard of money & credit,
which only gold
has fulfillled,
from the time of earliest recorded civilizations....
until till now...


There will be nothing but

continuing boom & bust cycles...
of extremme
wealth & prosperity concentrated...

as the multitudes
are mired in abject misery & mayhem...

UNLESS, there is a return,
to the objective,
'democratizing'
equality-insuring,
integrity-preserving,
inherence
of a gold standard
for moeny & credit,
in an un-fettered,
international,
global
world economy.

In the current, fading 20th century drama:
the make-believe paper-dollars that are currently
manufactured in the U.S. of America,
are about to discover...
that they are...
no longer
the most sought after export,
of the U.S.

The global economy will know the truth,
and the truth will make it,
and all of us,
free.
And this freedom, for the most people,
regardless of nationality,
regardless of race, or ideology & persuasion;

will be found in gold-based & gold-convertible
money & credit.

He has been astounding Ron Insana. He says the technicals are worse than 87. Wont last on these feeble legs. It will be next three months. Screw the dollar. They will buy Swiss Francs and German Marks.
We are not the only place to invest. For Gods sake.

Will go home to rebuild Asia