Good old Couer, they were going great guns years ago, but poor performance over the past rules them out for me.
Many of the former pure Ag producers, like CDE have become Au producers, only few of such Ag/Au producers look good, but Homestake is in the process of taking Prime Resources out.

I am passionate about money. I get carried away. I see horror. You see a plausible scenerio. Hordes of wealth will be pissed away. I plan to make money on this deal. I've got to do something. I plan to be a buyer late October. I will sell short the SP500 mid October. Maby Lucent Technology. Everyone follows his own heart. I specialize in market tops. It has always been my love. Market bottoms are next in line. Thats where all the money is made or lost. I smell mayhem

August 21--8315 August 28--8700
This is the mysterious "tradeable rally". Not so mysterious.

blooper: Forgot about the interest rate bit. I have the 1987 interest rates, US dollar, and gold equity values within 4 feet of my bed.
I have looked at it almost every day it seems for 2 years. LT treasuries were at 7.5% until the end of March of that year, and began to rise. Probably about the time the Japanese started to dump their treasuries ( can't blame them ) . By the time the US dollar twitched about Aug 17, interest rates were up to 9.0% -- AG powerless to prevent the rise. The US dollar dropped 5% in 4 days, and two months later we had that infamous crash when LT rates peaked at 10.25%. During this time gold equities had doubled from their bottom from earlier in the year.
So what is different between 1987 and 1998? First, there is no gold equity bull. Secondly, LT interest rates are going down, not up. Thirdly, the dollar is still holding up fairly well.
But I do agree with you on the pattern -- if I see this pattern developing, I will try to make money on gold stocks for a time -- and then I will head for the hills.

Will go into free--fall. It will be a horror story. If you own stock, sell and get out now. I'm in cash. Preservation of capital is all that counts.
Those who do not believe this should do as you please.

The pattern is all I care about. What would happen if rates went up. The crash would occur now. This market is dying with low rates,the market heads down, discounting the future ( recession ) . The market discounts the future. The pattern is eerie.. Thats all I care about. I'm a chartist. I dont care about fundamentals. Just the road map. That tells me 1998 is a copycat.

blooper: I think I do understand where you are coming from. Why don't you let us know when you have done something -- people like me will understand this better.
You see- my life is one of logic -- I am a physicist. I cannot invest without a conceptual logical model. That is why I do better with mutual funds and gold -- since the wild gyrations of individual stocks can be ignored.
If you do well with market tops and bottoms, there are many here who will listen to you if you can explain your concepts. I too am convinced we are at a broad market top -- by watching WJC's fortunes. But I know I am not capable of predicting how sharp that top will be.

blooper, I agree this looks shakey at best. Only thing going up are blue chips, and they are at insane levels. This is due to their liquidity, once that disappears the prices could crumble.
Nothing worse than funds all loaded up and no-where to sell.........

Physicists know that if you feed a bubble, it will burst. Abursting bubble is not orderly. Also, the higher you go, the further you fall. 87 was not overbought compared 98. That was child's play.This is nose-bleed JTF. Have a good night. Nice getting to know you. I really enjoyed it, and I know you could be right.

blooper: Tomorrow I go to the lake -- perhaps our little boat can be pushed into the lake one more time this summer before the level drops some more. Plenty of water in the lake, but dropping about a foot a week. Great time for the neighbors to see what you have on the bottom. Good analogy for WJC too -- the bad news will come out reltively slowly. Wonder when Janet Reno will cave in and appoint another independent counsel.

If I'm right in October ( 22nd ) . Then I've done something.

blooper: Have a nice weekend!

I don't know why i go on about this. I should keep my mouth shut and make my fortune and go on. What is comming will be horrible. Many won't know until its too late.

You too. Enjoy the boating.

We haven't had one since 82. Think how tight this spring is. Orderly? hell no, chaotic when it blows.

CDE - COEUR D' ALENE MINES CORP IDAHO

Reminds me of Dire Straits - Industrial Disease
"Two men say thy're Jesus - One of them must be wrong."?

I'm listening to both.

Read somewhere that each DOW POINT= $1 Billion! Is that right? If so, then we've lost close to $1/2 TRILLION over the last two weeks! $144 BILLION today alone! THAT'S NOT ENTERTAINMENT! THAT'S DEFLATION! Just think how much Dollar wealth is gonna' be DESTROYED OVER THE NEXT 18 months as this porcine beast is finally DEFLATED and laid to rest! THIS is what will eventually destroy the US economy--the destruction of DEBT ( US DOLLAR FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES ) by the Billions! This will DEVALUE EVERYTHING FROM AUTOMOBILES TO HOUSES! AND THE COUNTRY WILL ENTER INTO A BLACK HOLE OF UNSERVICEABLE DEBT AND DEFAULTED PAPER PROMISES, EXPECTATIONS AND DREAMS! The crisis will be one of LIQUIDITY, FAITH, CONFIDENCE AND TRUST! AND what will make it even worse this time around, will be the terrible realization uncovered by the Y2K crisis that most of our wealth is but a digital illusion and cyberspace sham! The psychic trauma of this terrible realization will paralyze the American economy and create an entire country of catatonic zombies--so detached from the unfathomable horror of the new reality that recovery may take decades if not generations! What fools we mortals be! God help us all! Got to go back and listen to Gary North again on Art Bell from last Saturday morning! If that doesn't scare you into action, then nothing will!

I'm gonna keep my mouth shut and lettum find out for themselves. I may be wrong, but I believe we will extinguish selling end Oct. Take a holliday break, then resume iin March. I know we get a real rapid downward correction in October. Then a buying opportunity for a short while. It's a trip already. Wait till Oct.

could you please give us a list of the market tops that you have 'specialized' in?? A list please... or shut the hell up. You should read yourself.......

pray tell....i will not be able to sleep until i read the list............ ( waiting ) .... ( hum dee dum ) ................just give me your best three......and your age...........please.

yes....i am talking to you...

away...to await the reason not to scroll
inawe

I will do any trading ( very little ) , through European Fund. They have hardly been hurt. With Euro and all, Europe will be last man standing.

How'd your Disney do today. My IRA in Cash Reserves.

3 counting this one. I know you bought stock at all 3 of them.

My trading will be exclusively BEAR-X, BGEIX, GRFRX, GSR, LIHRY, VENGOLD and RSCOX, SHORT SPY and DIA and LONG GOLD and a little SILVER! YOU GOTTA' BE SHORT SOME KIND OF STOCK INDEX OVER THE NEXT 18 months! THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO MAKE A FORTUNE IN OUR LIFETIMES! Either make it on the way down or SUFFER with the huddled masses! I prefer the former to the latter!

You planning on retiring on food stamps ?

calling all cars.....calling all cars......

looking for a late model Peutz.....I think we found him.......or one of those copy-cat models........tick-tock, tick-tock...

they come.....................and the door hits 'em in the rear..........eventually.

why are you ( with one hand ) a tech guy........and ( with the other hand ) ............. ( or the other side of the mouth ) ................a 'gut feeling guy'.............there is a big difference you know............who are you?? You weird me out dude....


i'm waiting for the specialized list.......and until i get something that resembles a list i call horse pucky......

and I got gas..........please give me some specifics.....and the buttloads of cash you made shorting............

82 thru 98 .....hmmmmmmmmm there is much water under that bridge........that is sixteen years to wait for two tops. Lots-o-loss......uh huh.

meanwhile the 'players' made squillions while you waited for those GREAT tops............gimme a break. I asked for tops.

back to school bloop.....

and if i lose on the Disney I will head for the soc sec office pronto......it will bust my ass.


BFD...

ya already MISSED the greatest money making MACHINE in your lifetimes............too bad.

shoulda


coulda


woulda



boo hoo

this place stinks of bad fromunda cheese.......


fromunda what??

( you want me to finish that joke?? ) .......


go gold......but wait till October ( 22 ) ....

I'll give you a loan man, i"m notb serious about this silly crapola.

That my topping tool is when EB comes off some money to buy stocks with. Hoooo, we got a top here. I do not wish you any loss, you're just fun to argue with.You get in excellent zingers also. But I am in cash reserves. I also admit to losing800.00 in the last 2 weeks, cause I love to be invested. I gotta get hurt a little to get cautious.You know what I mean. The Dizney will get murdered. Catch the rally on Aug 21. to get out. Let it rally 3 days then sell. No stock is good to hold at a top.Forgive me, but this is a top. You're OK. We might could get along EB

The Panics of the 19th Century were sharp, but short. Like a thunderstorm. Hence, the mythology of the cleansing correction of excess in the business cycle. The mythology is disinforming because these Panics were crises in the financial and credit institutions. They were financial events that caused business failure by withdrawing credit unexpectedly. The businessman who failed got blamed for the actions of the bankers who had lent to government til all the money was gone. This is like blaming the farmer for the consequneces of drought. However, the course of finance was actually helical, not cyclical in the sense of seasonal.

For, beneath the surface a trend to bankruptcy was proceeding invisibly. When this trend crested into view, it appeared at first to be the onset of another Panic. But, when it lasted and lasted, a new name was dubbed for this new thing. Depression.

If someone would make a list of the governments that defaulted on sovereign debt from 1914 to 1939, I believe it would be revealing. It would show, I think, that Depression is the consequence of the destruction of national currencies.

In 1933 FDR announced the bank holiday and ordered the printing of "emergency" currency which the people were subsequently authorized by legislation to use as money. In other words, the old currency of the United States had been destroyed.

After WWI, Europe was broke. Government after government defaulted. The burden of gold debt was too much. The same was true in the United States. The "emergency" currency of Federal Reserve Notes was default on gold debt.

Now, the world is bent down by greenback debt. Destroying the greenback would lift this debt. The greater the destruction, the greater the relief. There is actually a prospect for the borrowers to escape repayment altogether. That must be a temptation. To the holders of black and yellow gold watching the progress of Depression around the globe.

Yes, the US Treasury is terrified of gold. Anything can be used as money. But, gold is the best thing to use as money. It is very difficult to fake gold. Gold can actually be audited. Also, there is that occurrence of the word "gold" in plain view in the Constitution. Gold is difficult to counterfeit in more ways than one.

People on this forum post as information their opinion that gold is not money. SDRer has posted facts to the the contrary. I would like to draw to their attention a recent decision at the federal appellate level regarding a lease made in Illinois in about 1910 which was contracted to be paid in gold coin. It was held that FRN's were not a substitute for gold coin. The defendant was ordered to pay the lease in gold coin. And if the FRN is such a good deal and gold is such a bad deal as an "investment", why did the plaintiffs sue to be paid in gold ?

If by hook or crook goods and services can be purchased with bad money, Gresham's Law says that the better money will be withdrawn from circulation and hoarded. But, when the bad money becomes so bad that people refuse it, it will be withdrawn from circulation and abandoned like trash. If you could abandon your debt by abandoning the paper fiat greenback, would you ? That is the choice open to borrower nations whose debt is donominated in dollars. If their debt denominated in dollars exceeds their assets denominated in dollars, is this choice compelling ?

Would you put your savings in yen today ? Would you put your savings into virtual reality ? That is all a digital account labelled cash really is, isn't it ?

Was long American Century Ultra, The Kaufman Fund and BGEIX from January, 1992 to April of 1996. Then made a fortune in the emerging market euphoria until September of last year. Been trading in and out of this sucker ever since, until the beginning of this year when I pulled the plug on all stock investments except gold and started going short the market with BEAR-X.In the last month I've started shorting spyders and diamonds and buying as much gold and selected gold stocks as possible!
Increased my net worth by an average 42.6 %/year over the course of the last 6 years!

Not even AG can save us. There is not enough money to print to replace the dollars that will leave real soon. No one can stop this thing from going down. AG might only react, like peeing in the wind. Sorry folks.

But did you buy at the top. I told EB to sell the Disney at the next tradeable rally. Better to admit mistake, than to retire on food stamps.

My X was from Rhinelander. Beautiful state. Great fishing, huh? Are you old enough to remember, Max Mcghee, Bart Starr
etc.?

Go Packers!!!!

I'm from Milwaukee, WI and been here all my life. Excited about the up coming Packer football season.

Go Green & Gold! Go Gold!!

Durban deep ..
Have results before me for June Quarter
Key numbers revenue 214.5 mill Rd
operation costs 207 mill Rd
operating profit = 7.5 mill Rd
other costs/revenue 0.6 mill Rd
profit bt 8.1 mill rd
tax REBATE 0.3 ""
Profit ATax 8.4
Capital expenditure 12.8

Here we enter a big difference between RSA stocks
and NA stocks .. For tax purposes ( and reporting
purposes previously ) Capex is subtrated from profit
IN THE YEAR that it is spent .. NOT depreciated over
say 3 years as in other countries. This is misleading
in NA mines because analysts sometimes consider
CASH FLOW as the rough sum of profit PLUS depreciation.
Because required capital expenditure is HIGH for
NA mines ( to maintain a given level of gold production ) .
They tend to have high cash flow BUT this is misleading
because the depreciation element must continually
be reinvested.
RSA treats Capex as a COST for tax purposes rather
than an "investment" to be depreciated over time.
In any event, I dont think Deeps results were as
good as enerybody else does.
Im sorry .. Im just being honest .. I see then
losing dough after capex.
Okay on the bright side with the same numbers
lets slap on the slide in the rand from 5.2 to 6.15
and see what happens ..
revenue becomes 214.5 *6.15/5.2 = 254
lets say costs stay at 207
so costs before capex become 254-207 =47 mill rd
and after capex 47 - 12 ( assume they stay level )
= 35 mill rand before tax ..
take 4 quarters of this = 35 * 4= 140 mill R
on 49 mill shares this is 140/49 = 2.85 per sh
.. so thats 2.85/6.15 = $0.46/sh bt annualy.

Am I doing something wrong. My problem is that
doing the same kind of numbers on many other RSA
stocks gives even BETTER results ..

From Spooner's The Constitution of No Authority
No Treason No. VI

In short, men's voluntary support of the Constitution is doubtless, in most
cases, wholly contingent upon the question whether, by means of the
Constitution, they can make themselves masters, or are to be made
slaves.Such contingent consent as that is, in law and reason, no consent
at all. As every body who supports the Constitution by voting ( if
there are any such ) does so secretly ( by secret ballot ) , and in a way to
avoid all personal responsibility for the acts of his agents or
representatives, it cannot legally or reasonably be said that anybody at
all supports the Constitution by voting. No man can reasonably or legally
be said to do such a thing as to assent to, or support, the Constitution,
unless he does it openly, and in a way to make himself personally
responsible for the acts of his agents, so long as they act within the
limits of the power he delegates to them. As all voting is secret,
( by secret ballot, ) and as all secret governments are necessarily only
secret bands of robbers, tyrants, and murderers, the general fact that
our government is practically carried on by means of such voting, only
proves that there is among us a secret band of robbers, tyrants and
murderers, whose purpose is to rob, enslave, and, so far as necessary to
accomplish their purposes, murder, the rest of the people. The simple
fact of the existence of such a band does nothing towards proving that
"the people of the United States," or any one of them, voluntarily
supports the Constitution. For all the reasons that have now been
given, voting furnishes no legal evidence as to who the particular
individuals are ( if there are any ) , who voluntarily support the
Constitution. It therefore furnishes no legal evidence that any body
supports it voluntarily. So far, therefore, as voting is concerned,
the Constitution, legally speaking, has no supporters at all. And, as
matter of fact, there is not the slightest probability that the
Constitution has a single bona fide supporter in the country. That is to
say, there is not the slightest probability that there is a single man in
the country, who both understands what the Constitution really is, and
sincerely supports it for what it really is. The ostensible supporters
of the Constitution, like the ostensible supporters of most other
governments, are made up of three classes, viz.: 1. Knaves, a numerous
and active class, who see in the government an instrument which they can
use for their own aggrandizement or wealth. 2. Dupes--a large class, no
doubt---each of whom, because he is allowed one voice out of millions in
deciding what he may do with his own person and his own property, and
because he is permitted to have the same voice in robbing, enslaving, and
murdering others, that others have in robbing, enslaving, and murdering
himself, is stupid enough to imagine that he is a "free man," a
"sovereign"; that this is "a free government"; "a government of equal
rights," "the best government on earth," *2 and such like absurdities.
3. A class who have some appreciation of the evils of government, but
either do not see how to get rid of them, or do not choose to so far
sacrifice their private interests as to give themselves seriously and
earnestly to the work of making a change.*2footnote. Suppose it be "the
best government on earth," does that prove its own goodness, or only the
badness of all other governments? IIIThe payment of taxes, being
compulsory, of course furnishes no evidence that any one voluntarily
supports the Constitution. It is true that the theory of our
Constitution is, that all taxes are paid voluntarily; that our government
is a mutual insurance company, voluntarily entered into by the people
with each other; that each man makes a free and purely voluntary contract
with all others who are parties to the Constitution, to pay so much money
for so much protection, the same as he does with any other insurance
company; and that he is just as free not to be protected, and not to pay
any tax, as he is to pay a tax, and be protected. But this theory of
our government is wholly different from the practical fact. The fact is
that the government, like a highwayman, says to a man: Your money, or
your life. And many, if not most, taxes are paid under the compulsion of
that threat. The government does not, indeed, waylay a man in a lonely
place, spring upon him from the roadside, and, holding a pistol to his
head, proceed to rifle his pockets. But the robbery is none the less a
robbery on that account; and it is far more dastardly and
shameful." from the same chapter; "The highwayman takes solely upon
himself the responsibility, danger, and crime of his own act. He does not
pretend that he has any rightful claim to your money, or that he intends
to use it for your own benefit. He does not pretend to be anything but a
robber. He has not acquired impudence enough to profess to be merely a
"protector," and that he takes men's money against their will, merely to
enable him to "protect" those infatuated travellers, who feel perfectly
able to protect themselves, or do not appreciate his peculiar system of
protection. He is too sensible a man to make such professions as these.
Furthermore, having taken your money, he leaves you, as you wish him to
do. He does not persist in following you on the road, against your will;
assuming to be your rightful "sovereign," on account of the "protection"
he affords you. He does not keep "protecting" you, by commanding you to
bow down and serve him; by requiring you to do this, and forbidding you
to do that; by robbing you of more money as often as he finds it for his
interest or pleasure to do so; and by branding you as a rebel a traitor,
and an enemy to your country, and shooting you down without mercy, if you
dispute his authority, or resist his demands. He is too much of a
gentleman to be guilty of such impostures, and insults, and villainies as
these. In short, he does not, in addition to robbing you, attempt to make
you either his dupe or his slave. The proceedings of those robbers and
murderers, who call themselves "the government," are directly the
opposite of these of the single highwayman. In the first place, they
do not, like him, make themselves individually known; or, consequently,
take upon themselves personally the responsibility of their acts. On the
contrary, they secretly ( by secret ballot ) designate some one of their
number to commit the robbery in their behalf, while they keep themselves
practically concealed. They say to the person thus designated: Go to
A-----B-----and say to him that "the government" has need of money to
meet the expenses of protecting him and his property. If he presumes to
say that he has never contracted with us to protect him, and that he
wants none of our protection, say to him that, that is our business, and
not his; that we choose to protect him, whether he desires us to do so or
not; and that we demand pay, too, for protecting him. If he dares to
inquire who the individuals are, who have thus taken upon themselves the
title of "thegovernment," and who assume to protect him, and demand
payment of him, without his having ever made any contract with them, say
to him that that, too, is our business, and not his; that we do not
choose to make ourselves individually known to him; that we have secretly
( by secret ballot ) appointed you our agent to give him notice of our
demands, and, if he complies with them, to give him, in our name, a
receipt that will protect him against any similar demand for the present
year. If he refuses to comply, seize and sell enough of his property to
pay not only our demands, but all your own expenses and trouble beside.
If he resists the seizure of his property, call upon the bystanders to
help you ( doubtless some of them will prove to be members of our band ) .
If, in defending his property, he should kill any of our band who are
assisting you, capture him at all hazards; charge him ( in one of our
courts ) with murder, convict him, and hang him. If he should call upon
his neighbors, or any others who, like him, may be disposed to resist our
demands, and they should come in large numbers to his assistance, cry out
that they are all rebels and traitors; that "our country" is in danger;
call upon the commander of our hired murderers; tell him to quell the
rebellion and "save the country," cost what it may. Tell him to kill all
who resist, though they should be hundreds of thousands; and thus strike
terror into all others similarly disposed. See that the work of murder is
thoroughly done, that we may have no further trouble of this kind
hereafter. When these traitors shall have thus been taught our strength
and our determination, they will be good loyal citizens for many years,
and pay their taxes without a why or a wherefore."

DOES THIS SOUND LIKE WACO, RUBY RIDGE, THE DEMONIZING OF THE MILITIA, THE
SCARLET LETTER OF THE 148 HOLD IS P ON THE IRS's Individual Master Files's, THE
TRAINING OF THE JUDGES AT THE SPECIAL MEETINGS TO DESTROY YOU AT ALL COSTS,
AND TO BRING FORTH A STACKED JURY OF "DUPES", ALLOW NO EXCULPATORY
EVIDENCE? It is
under such compulsion at this that taxes, so called, are paid. And how
much proof the payment of taxes affords, that the people consent to
support "the government," it needs no further argument to show. 2.
Still another reason why the payment of taxes implies no consent, or
pledge, to support the government, is that the taxpayer does not know,
and has no means of knowing, who the particular individuals are who
compose "the government." To him "the government" is a myth, an
abstraction, an incorporeality, with which he can make no contract, and
to which he can give no consent, and make no pledge. He knows it only
through its pretended agents. "The government" itself he never sees. He
knows indeed, by common report, that certain persons, of a certain age,
are permitted to vote; and thus to make themselves parts of, or ( if they
choose ) opponents of, the government, for the time being. But who of them
do thus vote, and especially how each one votes ( whether so as to aid or
oppose the government ) , he does not know; the voting being all done
secretly ( by secret ballot ) . Who, therefore, practically compose "the
government," for the time being, he has no means of knowing. Of course he
can make no contract with them, give them no consent, and make them no
pledge. Of necessity, therefore, his paying taxes to them implies, on his
part, no contract, consent, or pledge to support them--that is, to
support "the government," or the Constitution. 3. Not knowing who the
particular individuals are, who call themselves "the government," the
taxpayer does not know whom he pays his taxes to. All he knows is that a
man comes to him, representing himself to be the agent of "the
government"--that is, the agent of a secret band of robbers and
murderers, who have taken to themselves the title of "the government,"
and have determined to kill everybody who refuses to give them whatever
money they demand. To save his life, he gives up his money to this agent.
But as this agent does not make his principals individually known to the
taxpayer, the latter, after he has given up his money, knows no more who
are "the government" that is, who were the robbers--than he did before.
To say, therefore, that by giving up his money to their agent, he entered
into a voluntary contract with them, that he pledges himself to obey
them, to support them, and to give them whatever money they should demand
of him in the future, is simply ridiculous. IRS
AGENTS HIDE BEHIND ALIASES. WHEN XXX CALLED TO
FIND OUT CERTAIN SERVICE CENTER DIRECTORS FROM CERTAIN CONGRESS PEOPLE
THEY GAVE HIM NAMES THAT WERE NOT THE SERVICE CENTER DIRECTORS. WHEN HE
DID FIND THEIR REAL NAMES THE CONGRESS PEOPLE HID BEHIND THE STATEMENT
"WELL THAT'S WHAT THE IRS TOLD ME WHEN I ASKED." EVERY CONGRESSMAN AND
WOMAN KNOWS WHO BUTTERS THEIR BREAD. 4. All political power, as it is called, rests
practically upon this matter of money. Any number of
scoundrels, having money enough to start with, can establish themselves
as a "government"; because, with money, they can hire soldiers, and with
soldiers extort more money; and also compel general obedience to their
will. It is with government, as Caesar said it was in war, that money and
soldiers mutually supported each other; that with money he could hire
soldiers, and with soldiers extort money. So these villains, who call
themselves governments, well understand that their power rests primarily
upon money. With money they can hire soldiers, and with soldiers extort
money. And, when their authority is denied, the first use they always
make of money, is to hire soldiers to kill or subdue all who refuse them
more money. For this reason, whoever desires liberty, should
understand these vital facts, viz.: 1. That every man who puts money into
the hands of a "government"----- WANT MORE? BUY THE BOOK
Gold is freedom; paper is slavery.

ANY comments on SGOLY? Is this still a good price to buy in or what?

Thanks

What are your top three RSA picks?

for SWP1
After looking at results which were good
.. and market reaction which was bad .. Im
spooked ..
Randfontein came out with improved results
and fell 8 %.
Deeps was creamed in NY .. Good RSA
earnings are being ignored along with
the benefits of the weak rand ..

IF the US market goes down the toilet ..
I now think EVERYTHING goes with it
including all PMs.
Based on current results .. Its Sgoli,
Randfontein, Harmony .. avgold a close
fourth .. Deeps has been a dissapointment
for me ..

Much appreciated - thanks again.

By the way - what does your genetica connection have to say of late re the markets?

I'll give you guys one guess...
Nope - Gold doesn't get first place. It does get 3rd though.
Gold is beaten by Copper.
But Gold is great for contacts because it does not corrode.
But it is NOT the best conductor of electricity.
Here is a hint ( and do check Gold & Coppers numbers too.
http://www.shef.ac.uk/chemistry/web-elements/Ag/phys.html

http://www.shef.ac.uk/chemistry/web-elements/fr-key/Ag.html

How much of each of them is there in above ground stocks?
Is there any numbers out there?
For instance -
Iridium, the densest and most corrosion resistant of all elements.
And then there is the Iridium Bomb!
http://www.shef.ac.uk/chemistry/web-elements/Ir/key.html

From July 30 transcript, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT....

http://quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr980730.html#STORY3

http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr980730.html#STORY3

Of the complete value of the Dow, how much of it is actually hard earned cash.
What % would the market have to go down before it started hurting the long term investors cash.

See him frequently, nice fellow ( uncle of my best friend ) .......Went to college with Monkey Brains Patterson.....another good friend...still comes to parties....the slammer was not kind to him. He works as a common laborer on a construction crew. His rich wife stuck with him...Eve is way cool.

Interesting assessment of Wall Street's current situation-

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/TFC/Inger.html?G=MarketMavensReport&T=Market%20Outlook&A=Inger

One of the most powerful arguments that the stock bulls have had these past few years is the case for future stock price increases based upon automatic payroll deductions for 401K retirement plans. The premise of this belief is that the money is painlessly deducted and just keeps rolling in month after month, fueling the bull market. This new era in investing is proclaimed to be foolproof and stocks will just keep rising as they have in the past; nothing can possibly stop it. Investors are said to be "in for the long haul" and compounding profits will make them all millionaires. Lets examine this argument to see if we can find some flaws.

The first point to examine is the current price of the market itself. Is it really high? Last week the Dow reached 9338; I am sure there were many new millionaires that week. CNBC is plastered daily with endless charts showing 100's and 1000's of percent increases in various stocks. A true evaluation of the market price reveals that in pre-1933 dollars the Dow reached 651 last week, not 9338. Thus what we are really seeing is a dollar devaluation that has taken place since 1933, not a measurement of uncannily smart investors at all. The stock millionaires of today are not much different from the "millionaires" of Germany in the 1920's who needed a wheelbarrow to haul enough money to the bakery to buy a loaf of bread. The high Dow numbers are nothing more than another way of expressing a dollar devaluation.

In order for the Dow to reach higher than 9338 each new purchaser will have to pony up more money than last month. An amount that is only equal to last month will not be enough to do it. At 10,000 Dow the bar is that much higher. Each month, at each new high, the hurdle is raised. Soon you will need a wheelbarrow to pay your stockbroker.

Now let's return to the argument of "painless payroll deductions". If a plan participant signs up for the maximum 15% deduction his take home pay is reduced accordingly. He is only making a true saving if he reduces his lifestyle expenses by the 15% amount. Published economic numbers create the suspicion that there has been no reduction in lifestyle at all. In keeping with their previous lifestyle many participants apparently are making up the difference with growing credit card balances and home equity loans. These loans are financed at rates from 7 to 22%, thus his 401K contributions are not really savings at all. His 401K plan is fully financed on margin. There is nothing painless about a 15% paycut and no self-respecting stock tycoon would reduce his lifestyle by 15% anyway.

During the past several years publicly traded companies have been downsizing. Hundreds of thousands have accepted early, sometimes involuntary, retirement. These folks are spending their 401K money; they are selling shares, not buying. Yesterday we saw involuntary paycuts at Hewlett-Packard. These participants, by law, must reduce their 401K contributions. Can we expect more news of paycuts? With cheap imports flooding the U.S. from Asia, and container ships returning 87% empty, I think the answer is yes. So perhaps the endless stream of incoming plan funding is not quite as guaranteed as the stock millionaires had thought. Perhaps his job is in jeopardy. Perhaps he will be just another victim of the next mega-merger.

Another source of fuel for this stock market has been frightened money from Asia. With local currencies being devalued and the fear of another round of devaluations, possibly triggered by China, wealthy Asians pumped money into the safe-haven U.S. markets. In recent days, as political uncertainty over the Clinton scandal increased, the dollar has slipped. Should this problem escalate those funds may be instantly re-directed to European markets or to gold. This is hot and frightened money. There is absolutely no certainty it will continue. Should those local economies recover it will be re-patriated.

The next time someone tries to stump you with the "new era" argument you will be ready for a counter-attack.

How do you answer the inflation argument that M3 is growing at a 9.3% rate comparing the weekly numbers to last year and 10% comparing June 1998 to June 1997? I am using Barron's numbers. I am having a hard time shaking the econ 101 lesson that an increase in the money supply which exceeds the increase in GDP is inflationary. GDP is growing at about 4 to 5%. Incidentally, I appreciate your research efforts.

in equities and in physical. But:

1. The sell off of the DOW by international investors et al means
the dollar is set for a decline. Gold will rise.

2. The FDR has been inflating, and its mostly in the equities markets.
As this cash is removed from the market, we should see the inflation.

3. Alan Greenspan continues to warn that inflation is the threat and
he should know.
The drop in the POG would be a strong signal that we are deflating,
except that this decline has been manipulated by lease rates.
Since AG has been instrumental in this manipulation, he is ignoring
this deflationary signal and continues to warn of inflation.
Inflation it will be. ( There are signs that money presses are
working overtime in the United States, and that used bills are
being left in circulation, instead of being withdrawn and replaced
with new bills. )

4. The EURO will be backed by gold to at least 10%, and will be
introduced in Jan 1999. It will effectively compete with the
US dollar. The dollar will decline.


Between now an Jan. 1999, I think the POG is going to be under
extreme pressure by the CBs. But I believe that the BIS will buy
all gold under $280. Prolonged exposure to sub $300 gold prices
will destroy the world gold mining industry. There is a limit
to the decline because gold is money, not a commodity.

So the gold equities are in for a drubbing, just like in 1929,
but I feel they will come back. If you are a trader, sell out.
If you are an investor, and depending on when you bought in, you
could just wait this out. IMHO
The problem with selling out to duck the short term decline is
that when this gold market turns around, it may be explosive.

Your 7:43: Well said. Thank you. In addition I believe the boomers are reaching an age where their cash requirements are going up not down. The X generation is very expensive to their parents. College tuitions are still going up way faster than the cpi. ( 7.4% this year at a local University ) Medical costs are about to explode again. We'll see that workers decisions to deduct big chunks for an investment plan, which were so easy in an environment of rising incomes and rising stocks, will become painful in an environment of stagnent or falling stock prices and rising personal cash needs.

Certainly small investors, enrolled in 401K plans, have contributed mightily to this ( stock ) market, and I certainly have heard an earful from friends & relatives about the "new era" and being in it for the long haul. But I wonder what song they'll be singing as the market falls off into a 1, 2, or 3 year abyss.
What's striking to me is that the 401K is simply a government-mandated subsidy of Wall Street. A friend just this a.m. mentioned he's in a particular mutual fund ( via his 401K ) and that's the only option he has ( so he thinks ) . I don't even argue with them anymore.

I saw a bunch of "reasons" for Friday's breakdown, but did anyone else think on Thursday night that Friday might be bad when they saw the "regular news" carrying stories about the market going bad ? I think the story I saw was on ABC, and that was really the first story I saw that made a suggestion to individual investors that they might want to be a little light on the equity markets for a while.

Maybe it was a simple as John Q. watching the evening news, shrugging slightly, then calling up his investment guy/gal in the morning.

Envy

Rhody
Are you hanging on to your TVX or dumping it? Have they released
Q2 earnings they should have made some money

Its hard to believe that some of these PM stocks are close to a price
of a postage stamp CAU @ 0 .50

I mean, if it's on the evening news, it's gotta be the truth, right ?

Company matching makes the 401k a sweet deal. I put in X$/month and my employer matches that amount making an automatic 100% gain! Every few years, the officers in the company put in so much money that the company is forced to "rebalance" and that gives the employees something called a QNEC payment which is even more money in the account. Most 401k plans have several choices ranging from government bonds to growth and index funds. I can split my money between accounts in any percentage or move it all into guaranteed long term with a single phone call. The only possible improvement would be an option to invest in platinum/palladium mines.

I bet you could pick a date by figuring out when the typical 401-k investor gets his/her portfolio "status report". I know when I used to get them, I'd just look and see how stuff was doing, and if something wasn't going well, I'd give'm a call and change it.

If a bunch of participants get a paper that says, Hey, your stock fund just lost a bunch of money, they'd call up in a second and change it to something else that WAS making money.

Envy

Sorry for the delay MM, no, I don't need the URLs, I found more or less what I was looking for. Thanks a bunch for the offer though.

The rest is FSR, RYO, PRU, PDG, BGO and HGMCY. Except for the BEMA,
all acquired last Jan. near their lows. If I have to wait 5
months to see an improvement, I will. I am not a trader, but
an investor. My time frame is usually one to two years.

BUT, when I took my positions, I was unaware of the leasing scam.
If I had known then about leasing, I would have known that at
1.5% lease rates for one month, that the CBs still had much
capacity to push the POG down. I would have waited till lease
rates dropped below 1% like now. Even now is dangerous, as
the powers that be are going to switch from leasing to some other
strategy. I would wait to buy until we see what that will be
and how effective it is.

We are in the end game now, and it is going to be painful near term.

Gold is not a commodity. Gold is political.

If I get out of this with my shirt, I will never make the mistake of
entering this 'market' again. The market always gets silly before
rationality sets in. Manic is both a selling and a buying phenomena.
Right now we are nearly into manic selling. It will affect the golds,
just like in '29, but not as badly as they are already near their lows.

IMHO P.S. Since I am a pm investor the H is more meaningful to me
than most! This is not a market, it is a manipulation.

I applaud your earlier comments! My addendum would be, when
the paper assets start going "poof!!", some physical gold is
going to look mighty nice.

If increasing money supply is inflaitionary, and money supply has been increasing, why hasn't inflaiton happened?

Why does holding inflaition steady risk deflaition?

What happens when the Fed sells/buys bonds?

What happens when a foreign entitiy, say the BOJ, sells/buys US bonds?

The last question is the most important one.

Here's some reference material for figureing it all out:
http://cobweb.utsa.edu/FACULTY/MERRIFIELD/CHAPTER_THIRTEEN.html

The Fed is cranking up the money supply, but I think there's another factor we should take into consideration. Remember that sometimes central banks find themselves unable to inflate, no matter what they do.

This happened to the Fed in 1929-1932, and it happened to the Bank of Japan over the past few years. The Fed even tried the amazing "negative interest rate" in the Dirty Thirties, and the BoJ now has interest rates down as close to zero as is practical, given the Yen carry trade. In both situations deflation continued unabated, borrowers still refused to borrow, and lenders maintained impossible lending terms, even on what was almost "free money."

I think that the Fed really doesn't know what to do. They see the money supply expanding because of asset inflation and worry about that- maybe they should tighten? Then terrible employment numbers come in after the Administration's book cooking is corrected- maybe they need to stimulate? Then they see overseas deflation arriving on US shores and that makes a stronger argument for stimulating, but then in spite of increasing unemployment, wages are increasing and corpoorate profits are up- in spite of continuing forecasts in certain newsworthy sectors, like high-tech., that profits are about to plunge.

I think that what has the Fed governors really worried is the fact that the liquidity is ending up in the wrong place- in financial assets- instead of in areas that will lead to stable growth. They are holding the course on interest rates, but the money supply increase just keeps feeding into the equities bubble. If they tighten, they know that the immediate response will be a rush out of equities that will impact the rest of the economy as people lose confidence. I think the reason they're holding the course is that they hope either deflationary forces or the long-predicted profit declines will arrive slowly enough to bring about an orderly exit from the equities markets ( i.e. an orderly bear market rather than a crash or a "whipsaw" type of bear market. ) I just don't know whether that's possible, because when huge investment pressures ( bubbles ) build up, investors get skittish, and panics are much more likely. It's sort of like musical chairs. When everybody is looking for that signal that it's time to grab a chair, the reaction is frenzied and immediate.

Anyhow, did you see my post on Mooney's computer problem yesterday eve.?

- Steve

reproach. You have earned this by controlling destiny. I will know know you forever as the best version of EB in the world....and this is good.

Rhody,

Just this morning I was thinking about buying some more TVX or
ABX until I checked on the performance of the PM portion of
my portfolio. I own PAASF, SSRIF , BGEIX, CAU, TVX, ABX, &
VENGF. About the second or third week of April I was above
water and was contemplating getting out but then the greed factor
kicked in when I had a double on CAU and figured I'd let
the whole thing ride. The ride has been down hill ever since and
its been an expensive ride $32k decline in value.

I never puchased any stocks until late 93 and the first two newsletters
that I ever read were Blanchards gold newsletter and Jim Stacks
INVESTECH, both of whose advice has probably cost investors hundreds of thousands of dollars. One gold newletter writer whose opinions II thought seemed more rational than Stack and Blanchard was
the Gold Stock Analyst's John Dowdy and he probalbly lost more
money that I did this year on PM stocks. These so called experts
don't know anymore about precious metals than you or I do.

GREAT. I guess the 401ers, sickened by each day's 200-300 52-week LOWS, now will be or have been herded up for their final and perfect slaughter in the "safer" Dow components. this could be real bad. i mean bad.

I hope to avoid the tragedies of the upcoming inflationary deflational recession using prayer and gold. amen.

Usually I get ripped in fast markets but not yesterday. I had a sell stop in on the SnP to put me into the market short at 1134...it was filled at 1135. About 20-30 minutes later I put a market order in to buy them back. I looked at the order ticket this morning. The SnP was trading at 1125.25 when the floor got the order...it was filled at 1119.75. Some days everything goes right.

Moonie has enough info now to fix his system, as I telephoned him
with suggestions from posts on this forum. Thank you. It is
up to Moonie now. I think he needs a new board, and a hardrive that
has more capacity than 200 megs.

Oh yes, Go Gold. Rhody

Geico some cash.......his rates are competitive...probably buys silver with dollars that should have been used to pay claims. bbl

SWP1 ..
Wave five down of gold related
stuff.
Dow commencing bear ..
.. Be in cash or short .. but
I dont know if he's gone short
the dow or not.
He had assumed another test
of the gold low all along and
has never accepted assumption
that bottom was in.

Japan funds eem to be divorcing themselves from gold. Gold stocks smashed Friday, but many Japan funds soared. The smarter ones have hedged their yen exposure and their performance is strictly tied to Japanese stocks.The Warburg Pincus japan growth fund jumped 1.4% on Friday as gold stocks and US stocks generally got creamed. Japanese stocks now the contrary investment of choice, not gold.

For Akau
It is on the way I think..

Clinton having a little chat with Japans new prime minitster this week end. Some of that luck Clinton has been having lately may just rub off
on him and the Japanese Stock market sunday night

The tone here reminds me of a Cajun wake. The family has a basic theoretical belief in the afterlife but that corpse in the corner makes practical application difficult. So, pass the bottle, Thibodeaux! An' Goldy there, don't he look nacheral? We'll strike us up a song, walkin' back from the churchyard, we will!

I have the GET program

I think you're right. Mooney needs to either trade his computer in or rebuild it with a new motherboard, more RAM & a new hard drive. He's just too underpowered at the moment. While he's at it, he might as well move to Windows 98 or windows NT.

Steve

RJ: Noticed you have not yet updated your Monex report this week. Could you tell us approximately how low you expect POG to drop on this move and what kind of a rebound you expect. Thanks in advance!

http://home.intekom.com/rsa/invbewar.html

Friday July 31, 8:24 pm Eastern Time

Two of Canada's "big six" grain handlers to merge

By Irene Marushko

WINNIPEG, July 31 ( Reuters ) - Canada's six large farm cooperatives became five on Friday when
delegates of the Alberta Wheat Pool and the smaller Manitoba Pool Elevators voted unanimously to
merge into a single company called Agricore.

``The delegates of MPE and Alberta Wheat Pool this afternoon reviewed proposals to merge and
have decided to merge,'' MPE President Charlie Swanson told a news conference.

``It is probably the end of an era and the beginning of a new one,'' he said.

That was very interesting......Simple and to the point.

Well, I've bitten the bullet and tried a big casting in silver ( INVESTMENT casting to be exact for those who would quibble about being off topic ) . I'd had trouble since my local bronze seller closed so I figured, what the hey, silver works for little things, why not big ones? So now I'm grinding off the sprues on a 49 ounce statuette! So far the basic structure looks good except for some minor porosity on some fingers and filling defect on some toes which will all have to be replaced. IMHO

I've located a caster who can do pours up to 1200 pounds in case you are interested in doing a joint project, maybe a 2x life size figure of the Silverbaron fighting off Shorts in his shorts? ( 'jes kidding, all ) IMHO

Standard disclaimer applies, not a solicitation, etc., ect., no relationship with the commercial URL published here for educational purposes, zzzzzzzzzz.....

http://www2.modernartfoundry.com/modernartfoundry/

Included is a URL/site
http://www.2ndLawLib.org/journals/cd-reg.html
that offers some background/history on the 2nd Amendment.

My personal beliefs and perspective,
on this subject, are not the subject of importance, here.

I am sure that my point of view, on this discussion-board,
on this subject, is in the minority.

I will risk sharing, evenso, this personal experience,
from 'my history':

I was a teacher in a New England school, 31 years ago.
My students were, exclusively,
new immigrant children, from Portuguese islands -
the Cape Verdes & the Azores.

In that federally funded project,
our unifying theme and educational objective, was
to teach & learn
enough of the U.S. version of the English language,
so that as many students as possible,
could transfer over into
the regular/normal U.S. classrooms...thus -
"intergrating & melting" themselves...
with the other American students.

This was the period in time
when
the Vietnam War was accelerating into its full fury....
when Martin Luther King & Robert Kennnedy were taken...
... and the students at Kent State.

I can so vividly recall my ( -for the sake of debate ) words...
in the classroom, with my young, eager,
6-14 yr. old students --
- earthly-alive, &
- innately inspired,
with the heaven-given qualities of
heart-felt curiousity plus intellectual appetite:

"Why don't all of you bring a gun to class to tomorrow?....!
After-all, wouldn't that make each of you,
and all of us, more secure, and safe?....!"

These kids were ( are ) very bright, mind you.
( Perhaps there is a relevance,
in this 30 yr. old discussion/debate,
to the recent series of slaughter in American schools
between & among fellow-students. By the way, were any of the
student shooters, in the schools of America,
this past school-year, women? I'm just curious,
if any of you know. )

I wonder if even the 6 yr. olds of 30+ years ago,
had more common-sense, and more sense of compassion,
and more sense of inter-connected reality with one another,
than many of us ....in our
50's, 60's, +, today.

Thirty years ago, the students seemed almost unanimous,
in their opinion, that - if every one, had a gun,
no one would be safe.

I suppose when we work ...
& warble & wrangle & tangle & shout & scream & dream again ...
around this issue of
the right to bear arms...
we will, eventually,
decide:
this is a personal, private issue;
it is not appropriate, to the prerogative of the state.

And in the midst of this caldron of debate:
a quiet rumble yet whispers:

"You claim you can manage yourselves......
your guns, missiles, nuclear bombs & all.

"What is this foolish, furious...
merry-go-round of humanity thinking ? ...
in such a free-for-all?"

To all bears: the trend is now our friend ---

For long-time bears, the U.S. stock market's long and arduous
ride to historic highs has been nothing short of frustrating.
Many a trader, no doubt, experienced the anguish many times
over of being stopped out of a short sale over the past couple
of years due to the market's seemingly unstoppable upward bias.

.and the bulls will likewise soon find themselves
freezing to death in the arctic frost accompanying this
changing climate. And that change is already beginning.


Analyst Droke emphatically states, "This Dow Theory confirmation serves
as our first indicator that the bear is among us."

Bull Killer Droke also foresees "Below 8600 it is all air until the next
closest support level at approximately 7700."

His entire report at following URL - per custom it's necessary to delete
The extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting it to the
Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke080398.html

the present Dow of 9,000 corresponds to approx. 661 in real ( pre-1933 ) US dollars. The separation of the US$ from the gold standard, and government manipulation of the gold price, was started by Roosevelt in 1933.

The Dow peaked on Sept. 4, 1929 at almost 400!

So why are we at 661 today?

The Dow was at around 400 in real dollar terms in the fall of last year. If you want to see an interesting graph, go to:

http://www.lowrisk.com/anniv/87vs97.htm

and scroll down to the 2nd graph. It is a plot of normalized ROEI in 1926-29, 1984-87 & 1994-97. A crash was due to happen in 1997, and it did start in October right on cue.

What happened next, though, was unprecedented. The US Treasury Department intervened in the markets by providing incentives to certain large companies, like IBM, to do share buybacks, and they made massive purchases of S&P 500 index futures contracts.

This has never happened before. Governments have been trying to manipulate the economy since the turn of the century, not always successfully, they have been manipulating the price of gold since 1933, in fits and starts, but before the 1992 US presidential elections, no government had actually stepped into the equities markets to manipulate them.

What would have followed a blowoff in 1997? We'll never know. Something entirely different will happen once the markets do return to realistic valuations.

What we do know is that government intervention has allowed the present equity bubble to reach heights never before seen. In fending off a crash in Oct. 1997, they have set the stage for an even bigger drop when the supply of buyers dries up.

I know some Kitcoites think it's heresy to talk of speculating in anything but gold, but I'm going to anyway! We're approaching the eve of a once-in-a-lifetime chance to rake off some money being wasted by stupid government intervention. The bubble is approaching the bursting point, and I'm convinced the folks who are calling for a Sept. or Oct. breakdown are right.

Once the market starts to plunge, the treasury dept. will be in there ( via Goldman & Sachs ) buying S&P 500 futures. In 1997 the spreads between long & short reached absurd values ( after all, you suddenly have a massive buyer trying to buy tens of thousands of contracts, with billions of $ of underlying. ) Keep yer eyes on those spreads, guys ( and gals- don't want to leave anyone out : )

If the market is plunging, or on the precipice, and spreads suddenly start to go wild, or you read about massive long volume in S&P contracts, it'll be possible to make thousands of percent in a few days.

More later- I'm off to jump up at Caribana- it's hot, hot, hot here in TO today!

- Steve

Dear Rob,
Do you have any reference, source, footnote, on this...
"foreign rating agency"...
as identified in the url you offered in recent post ( 10:06 ) ...

"...A foreign rating agency found South Africa to be in the second place, of the 51 most corrupt countries in the world. ...."

I'd sincerely appreciate any reference, referral,
identification of...
this ..."foreign rating agency"....

Do they have a web-site?...&/or mailing address? .....etc. ?

I believe the web-site you'd offered in your 10:06 kitco post, was:

http://home.intekom.com/rsa/invbewar.html

Many thanks for any help.
Sincerely,
David
goldfever@k-online.com

Especially was struck by the words, "SOUTH AFRICA IS FINSIHED AS A COUNTRY WHERE FOREIGN INVESTMENST AND POSSESSIONS ARE SAFE, DESPITE CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY. WE ARE ON THE SLIPPERY SLOPE TO DISASTER!"

This is why I refuse to purchase any SA shares! The ANC/Communist Govt. of Nelson Mandela is destroying the SA court system and making a mockery of justice for white South Africans and foreigners. This is also why I believe the RAND is headed for the scrapheap of history and why civil and social unrest will eventually grip the country and lead to a civil war that will makes ours look like a SS picnic!

We should all get together and go visit John Disney. Sounds like it would be a nice place to vacation. Hey, John Disney, any comments!!

Merrill Lynch predicting $275 POG in a matter of weeks. Makes sense to me.

Updated Fri Jul 31 16:44 ET

NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold down $2.70, hits 7-wk low

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Jly 31--COMEX Dec gold futures ended the week on a bearish
note, settling down $2.70 at $290.50 per ounce after hitting a 7-week low
of $290.10 late in the session. Gold remains a casualty of the ever-
weakening yen and was also pressured by a growing sense of disappointment
that last week's rally was aborted. Silver and platinum suffered similar
fates, while palladium bucked the trend and ended higher in thin trade.
* * *
As the disenchantment continued to permeate through the market,
technically oriented funds following weekly charts liquidated their
positions.
Currencies in main gold-producing regions, namely South Africa,
Australia and Canada, all weakened against the dollar, prompting continued
selling, said traders.
The weakening yen, however, was also a major culprit in gold's decline,
they said. Today the yen continued to weaken on lack of confidence in
Japan's new administration. The dollar hit a high of 144.80 yen, which was
almost a 6 1/2-week high. The dollar was at 144.61 yen at 1549 ET.
"There was currency-related selling," said Bill O'Neill, senior futures
strategist at Merrill Lynch. "This market is like Chinese water
torture...It keeps coming off," said O'Neill. He noted that Merrill had
earlier this week forecast the gold price will drop to $275 per ounce,
basis spot. While Merrill did not give an exact time-frame for the fall,
O'Neill said it may be a matter of weeks rather than months.
He noted that the overall fall in commodities prices today, which saw
the CRB index hit a fresh 5-year low of 205.99, also added to the bearish
sentiment in gold.
Meanwhile, silver "barely avoided taking out the 40-day moving average
and the momentum of the rally was broken," he said, noting it stalled badly
when it could not get through $5.85.
Like gold, silver suffered from a general sense of disappointment over
its inability to build on recent gains. Last Friday Sep silver managed to
edge to a 2 1/2-month high of $5.885 per ounce early in the session, but
then gave back its gains to settle down 9.5c at $5.707.
Also they noted after several days of hefty drawdowns, COMEX silver
stocks had risen over the last couple of days. COMEX stocks rose by 420,047
ounces today to 78,507,438 ounces. They edged up by 275,500 ounces
Thursday, after falling Wednesday by 187,669 ounces to 77,811,891 ounces,
which is their lowest level since Nov 24, 1982, when stocks were 77,155,315
ounces.
Platinum fell back today and was also a casualty of the weaker yen,
while palladium ended higher on early buying. Traders said that they were
not sure of the reason behind the buying, but one noted the gains were
"pretty much meaningless" given that they were made in such thin trading
conditions.

SETTLEMENT PRICES
--Dec gold ( GCZ8 ) at $290.50, dn $2.70; RANGE: 293.9-290.1
--Sep silver ( SIU8 ) at $5.458, dn 5.7c; RANGE: 5.54-5.425
--Oct platinum ( PLV8 ) at $377.6, dn $3.1; RANGE: 381.8-377.0
--Sep palladium ( PAU8 ) at $303.65, up $5.15; RANGE: 309.5-299.0

SPOT PRECIOUS METALS PRICES:
Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 286.40-286.90 289.50-289.90 289.50-289.90
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.43-5.46 5.52-5.55 5.52-5.55
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 380.00-381.00 377.50-379.50 376.00-378.00
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 295.00-305.00 298.00-308.00 295.00-305.00 End

BIG inflows into this market didn't REALLY start coming into this market until 1992-93! I read somewhere that more than HALF of all new money in this bull market has come in during the last three to four years! Since most of this money is LONG-TERM 401K stuff and dollar-cost averaged no matter what the level of the market, the midpoint for losses in this big fat pig is at most two years, and because of leveraging as it spiked, perhaps one to one and a half years!

Once we take out this midpoint which I believe is somewhere around 7300 ( where the PPT intervened so dramnatically last FALL ) , it could be 7800-8300 by now, THE PUBLIC AS A WHOLE WILL BE UNDER WATER AND LOSING MONEY! ONCE THIS STARTS TO HAPPEN, GREED AND COMPLACENCY WILL BE REPLACED BY FEAR AND PANIC as the dreams and expectations of the frightened baby boomers are turned upside down and destroyed with every passing day!

THIS is when the REAL PANIC will take place and when it will be apparent to EVERYONE that the GREAT BULL MARKET MANIA OF 1982-1998 IS NOW OVER, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CONTRACTION IS NOW HERE WHICH WILL CULMINATE WITH THE GREATEST DISASTER OF ALL--Y2K! IF the power grid goes down for 60 days as Gary North believes, it may take a decade to a generation to get through it, if you are still alive to survive the massive panic and disclocations and suffering it will cause!

recently members of Americas Red Army in Congress passed HR 3156 now it awaits the President to sign....its a Gold Medal given to Nelson Mendela for saving South Africa I can only say if this is there idea of saving a country watch-out America your future is no futher away than looking at SA today....to read this garbage just enter the bill number


http://thomas.loc.gov

Watch out for the Leonid Meteor showers November 17, 1998.

http://www-space.arc.nasa.gov/~leonid/hazard.html

You are exactly right about most people will be losing money around 7000. We are going to see one of the most massive shifts in psychology ever.

BTW, the Cowboys looked really good in last nights scrimage!

GOLDEN CHEESY wrote:
"Once we take out this midpoint which I believe is somewhere around 7300 ( where the PPT intervened so dramnatically last FALL ) , it could be 7800-8300 by now, THE PUBLIC AS A WHOLE WILL BE UNDER WATER AND LOSING MONEY! ONCE THIS STARTS TO HAPPEN, GREED AND COMPLACENCY WILL BE REPLACED BY FEAR AND PANIC as the dreams and expectations of the frightened baby boomers are turned upside down and destroyed with every passing day!"


OK -
Now I have absolutely zero to say about content of the above. I just wonder about all the caps. Since you have said the same thing you are shouting so many times in the past, why do you feel the need to shout it again? Is repetition not enough? I guess if you say it over and over, and no one cares, one may feel it is necessary to shout it over and over, perhaps then people will notice the wisdom inherent in these oh so oft repeated proclamations, yes?

Since the formatting of this site does not allow italics, I have seen a variety of ways people use to stress certain statements. Caps do seem to be THE BEST way to do that. But anything that is used too much looses its effectiveness. If every other sentence in all in caps, are we to believe that 50% of what you say is absolutely crucial and not to be missed by any reader of this site? The problem with this approach is the caps portion of your posts, which are no more interesting or imperative than the rest of it. Far as I can tell, it is pretty much a laundry list of the same paranoias and platitudes contained in most of your previous posts.

This is no attempt to start any kind of a battle, and I will not join in one in any case. I would like to read all the posts here, but it is just easier to scroll past all the shouters to find the information offered by those of a quieter tone. It has been my experience that these are the wisest posts anyway. If one has logic, facts, and reason on ones side, the need to shout is superfluous and overshadowed by the compelling nature of the info offered. Witness Gollum, or D.A. or APH or Mozel or sharefin, all good posters with valid insights and good information, yet when do they shout? The need to shout, I believe, lies in the insecurity of the poster. When one is calmly assured that their information and opinions have merit, one rarely feels the need to shout it in everybodys face.

THIS IS JUST MY OPINION

Thats all.

Righty O

If you are white, wealthy, etc. and looking out at Table Mountain every day, then South Africa is not such a bad place!

I give it to the lawyers Friday noon, right after the market close, they review it, edit out the profanities, and forward it to data processing to be published. I don't know why it is not there yet, seeing that I stayed home to write it Thursday evening rather than go see a beautiful sunset at the beach. I'm not sure what to do about it now. I don't think I can do anything until Monday.

Regarding gold, I have not changed my stance, I think the lows will hold. Gold is weak, but it is not dead. I think any attempt to breach $278 would be met by a plethora of buyers, including a bevy of short coverers.

They do come in bevies, don't they?

GC


Is there any Q2 production results for Vengf/ lihir yet?

I'm curious if jr cheesehead hung on to his begix or are todays youth
jumping to the next investment fad

Lihir 2nd quarter: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980724/lihir_gold_1.html

With your intricate knowledge of the law and money, is there a possibility that you could come up with a plan, method or procedure that the average Kitcoite could follow to deal with the apparent trap we find ourselves in today because of the new "robber barons"? This without a rebellious or violent reaction, but with a positive solution to wind through the ignominious "regulations" that benefit those in "power"? The many have tried to wrap the rest in a web, but I feel there is a legitimate way out- I just don't have the knowledge or experience to find it. Many thanx for your attention, Charlie

This could be a very sad week coming up in the metal markets. XAU - Is about to fill the gap at 61.25, if it does not double bottom and I doubt if it will the next target is 55-54. In turn the gold market will be dragged down further possibly down to 260-240. At 240 leg a = leg c from the 1987 high and would be at the bottom of the weekly channel its currently trading in. All this is not going to help silver. Cancel the buy orders at 5.35. If gold gets hit hard silver is going with it. August is generally not a good month for metals. In Aug of 93 gold opened down $20 one day. This should be the final wash out.

While sitting on my balcony patio this morn, sipping cappuccino and reading the newspaper, Mommy Mock was flying up to her ravenous little chicks and feeding them worms and stuff. All this is going on about four feet from where I am sitting. While mom will still fly away if startled, I think she has come to accept me as part of the indigenous landscape. I dont think dad likes me one little bit though. He casts a suspicious eye towards me whenever he is about. Screw him. Mom is doing all the work. Shes getting the bugs and worms. It is she doing to bulimia bit and she rations out her partially digested worm and bug guts. Mmmmmmmmmmm. Bug guts..

I noticed this same relationship with parents of girls I have dated. The moms love me but I think the dads were wary. Perhaps this is the way with dads and their daughters everywhere.

Anyway, these little mocking chicks are funny little fellows ( gals? ) Every time there feel the slightest vibration of the palm frond in which the nest is built, all three heads point straight up, yellow mouths wide open, waiving their heads to and fro to attract moms attention. Then they go to sleep. Seems a pleasant enough existence.

Indeedy

So,
what is the point
of your point of view: -

that - this man Mandela,
is of no respectable repute..?

Is this your... 'toot' ?!

Do I have it 'right' here:
from H.R. 3156:


".....Authorizes the President, on behalf of the Congress, to present a gold medal to Nelson Rolihlahla
Mandela in recognition of his life-long dedication to the abolition of apartheid and the promotion of
reconciliation among the people of the Republic of South Africa.

Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to strike a gold medal and sell duplicates in bronze at a price
sufficient to cover the costs of the medals.

Declares such medals to be national medals. Authorizes a maximum charge against the United
States Mint Public Enterprise Fund to pay for the costs of the medals.

Mandates that proceeds from sales of duplicate bronze medals be deposited in such Fund. ...."
---------_________________.................


And so my dear fellow compatriot of America & earth,
is this cause for condemnation ?

Is this 'black' man Mandela, imprisoned for a decade or 2,
yet willing to live on, now, for a moment or two...
not a shadow of the darkness of truth
rising
in the dawn of me and
in you...?

Why would you call So. Africa a 'basket-case',
in condescending judgement of them, there, and him

When all the while,
it is we
who are
the basket-weavers...

http://www.bfanet.com/cgi-bin/bfaweb.exe/bfamemo?file=sens&page=RNG

http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm.htm

USA Gold opened their market comments with the following: "A flurry of news from Japan this morning had the yen reeling and gold stubbornly holding its own."

This is not to disparage, but I recall a commentary made by USA Gold about not liking what people say about it on other web sites. I have zero problems with them as a company, and I think they offer a valuable service.

But the bias in the above is painfully evident. Gold collapsed Friday. It did not hold its own, stubbornly or otherwise. It fell through all support and closed at the lows. Why cannot this be reported accurately? If the editors of USA Gold read some of the previous posts regarding rumors and info posted in its market commentary, quite a lot of folks said the credibility of USA Gold is being harmed by the obvious bias.

Perhaps a more balanced view would go a long way to gaining new acceptance and respect. I offer this in the spirit of honesty and cooperation, not to in any way intimate that USA Gold is anything but the finest of companies.

OK

I seem to remember that it is tall coverers that come in bevies.

fright?...the SA currency has plunged 47%
since he took power....I guess that dserves a
Gold medal....then again when did Ameica
start honouring communism....I did not get
that memo

http://www.woza.co.za/mining/randgoldo3.htm

http://www.woza.co.za/mining/randgoldo4.htm

Perhaps a swarm, seething mass, scramble, crowd, troop, flock, herd, huddle, cluster, colony, constellation, galaxy, cluster, drove, team, pack, kennel, stable, string, nest, aerie, brood, hatch, litter, kindle, gaggle, flight, skein, covey, wing ( plovers ) , charm ( finches ) , exaltation ( larks ) , school, shoal, unit, brigade, batch, lot, clutch, brace, pair, span, class, genus, species, breed, tribe, clan, household, brotherhood, sisterhood, fellowship, guild, union, club, sphere, quarter, circle, ingroup, outgroup, us, them, they, or maybe just good traders, yes?

There is so much information and mis-information regarding gold and other PM's that it is becoming VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE for any lay-person to know either the short-term or intermediate-term future of PM's.

Although ANYONE with marketing sense can see that all PM's must escalate greatly over the long-term ( in response to being artificially manipulated to these absurd low levels ) , both the CB's and Wall Street have done a totally unbelievable job of scaring almost all investors out of PM stock as well as PM's themselves. The SHORTS have helped them out greatly by sucking up most of our own equities held in FAIRLY VALUED gold stocks that we had the wisdom to buy... but our losses have come only because we have been totally blindsided by an incredible worldwide manipulation of stocks, currencies and commodities.

A personal friend of mine, who is my stock broker, said "This does not make sense." He told me that for many years the wisdom advised by his company was to have clients put anywhere from 5% to 15% of their entire stock portfolios into gold stocks and other PM stocks and/or even buy and hold the metals themselves, as "investment insurance." Yet he said that virtually no stock broker today even considers giving their clients such important advice, and that he believes that to be very dangerous in today's over-inflated stock bubble. Although he makes a commission on stock, he feels that the DOW is overdue for at least a 20% to 25% correction, and apparently discloses this possibility to clients. Nonetheless even he cannot get good info on gold stocks because of the abundance of mis-information.

Earlier, someone posted the fact that many hundreds of thousands of dollars have been lost ( and possibly MILLIONS of dollars lost ) because many of us followed the advice of PM newsletters and gold stock newsletters. I won't name names, but many of you got burned following similar advice, so you know from experience which names could go here. Personally, even though I have been ruined financially by following such
advice, I still believe that most of the authors of said newsletters wrote in good faith. In 1982, who would have believed that the DOW could even reach its 1990 levels - much less its 1998 absurdity???

HOW can the DOW dupe so many suckers into plunging their financial futures into such an absurd bubble? I believe that the day will come when people will SCREAM at, YELL at, or literally try to SUE their stock brokers for failing to recommend at least a small portion of their portfolios go into PM's or PM stocks. ( If any of you reading this forum are stock brokers, perhaps you'd better read and heed... )

Certainly, many of us are extremely depressed and deeply discouraged by the results of our making the right decisions prematurely. Now, multiply our own hurt 100-million-fold when the DOW bubble bursts, and I certainly would NOT want to be in the shoes of any of the Wall Street gurus ( names deliberately not mentioned ) . If the spinmasters think that we goldbugs are disappointed and angry, just wait until their house of paper gets blown in the winds of time and the truth is exposed.

Today it is almost impossible to predict when and where gold or gold stocks will go from here...except that the pressure is building, building, growing, GROWING, *G*R*O*W*I*N*G* - so let all of us who have already purchased gold stocks and PM's do our best to hang on to what we have until reality finally sets in and we can at least get most of our original capital returned.

I'm almost as addicted to this site as others, even though I rarely post. Yet I can't help but keep reading, hoping that somewhere I can find the truth among the lies.

...the truth is out there. How can we find it?

--Skip

To what extent that gold carry trade has pushed up the US bond and equities market?
Those who sold leased gold for the cash to buy what looked like the best game in town would have to buy back and replace that gold, that is if the market tanks.
Does not look good for the shorts.

I think that is a Bevy of Buxom Betties........

indeedy...

away...to mow the lawns and enjoy life from kitco............ ( can he do it ) ...


Ten years ago, Japan was riding a heady speculative wave. Now, it is in worst recession since World War II. A comparison:

JOBLESS RATE:

1988  2.5 percent.

June 1998  4.3 percent ( record high ) .

-------------------------------------------------------

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT:

Year ended March 31, 1988: grew 4.9 percent.

Year ended March 31, 1998: shrank 0.7 percent ( first contraction since 1974 ) .

-------------------------------------------------------

BANKRUPTCIES:

April 1988: 955 companies.

April 1998: 1,700 companies.


-------------------------------------------------------

NIKKEI STOCK AVERAGE:

End of 1988: 30,159 points.

July 31, 1998: 16,378.97 points.

I appreciate your posts and your weekly comments at the MONEX site. Thank you for participating in this newsgroup.
--Skip

I wonder to what extent the gold carry trade has pushed up the US bond and equitie markets?
Those who sold leased gold for the cash to buy what
looked like the best game in town would have to buy back and replace that gold, that is if the market tanks, or not, this gold has to be bought back. Yes or no?
Does not look good for the shorts.

you can't eat money or always find what you need even if you have a ton of it in any form...

http://www.greenbattery.com/index.html

http://www.sunwize.com/pes.html

http://www.photonlight.com/

http://www.prepareandsurvive.com/

http://www.stor-tite.com/

http://theepicenter.com/toolacc.html

http://www.northlink.com/~gwiatt/

http://www.crl.com/~mjr/knife.html

http://search.sportsite.com/katadyn/

JR. SOLD OUT HIS BGEIX at $7.65 after a brief run up to $8.00, and is now quietly waiting to dollar-cost average back in when the old man tells him to! I'm willing to stay in for the long term, but since I want him to have only good remembrances of gold stock investing, I'm trading his account against mine as if his next meal depended on it, because if my gold stocks don't go up by the time I retire, it just might! At $5.29 we are VERY CLOSE TO A BOTTOM and THE BUY OF A LIFETIME! I'll be buyin' some for him next week for sure!

By the way, you can read all about VENGOLD by clicking on LIHRY on Yahoo search and clicking on their Q2 Report news item! Also check out Vengold's website at www.vengold.com for additional news about their other investments. Make no mistake about it, VENGOLD and LIHIR will be survivors and will prosper as never before once this orgy of AU selling has finally run its course!

Though what I hear on this forum is that Silver may not be worth much during the depths of a major Depression ( which may last five to ten years )
Are there any sites out there for info on storing up to ten years
worth of stuff ( for those of us where a garden is not doable ) ?

I find a lot of stuff for short term - up to a few years.

Not to mention kit and kaboodle.

There has been a lot of flak thrown toward shorts, as though they were some sort of communist. In reality though to be a good trader you have to be able to discern the trend of things and go in whatever direction the situation dictates. Traders provide the grease that lets the wheels turn. As such they shouldn't be begrudged some recompense.

The bad guys are the manipulators. Guys who take unfair advantage. Entities that give false or misleading information from a trusted position.

Manipulators can be long just as well as short.

If a group of honest all have stops or limits set at some level in some fair attempt to protect themselves from adverse moves in the market, the manipulators privy to this inside information will often move the market just enough to trigger them and sell/buy into them.

Oh well. That's life in the jungle I guess. One needs to be aware of the territory I guess and expect an "oh my" or two when they encounter the lions and tigers and bears.

Yep. They were doing great. Then they started buying US treasuries....

He say--

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A personal friend of mine, who is my stock broker, said "This does not make sense." He told me that for many years the wisdom advised by his company was to have clients put anywhere from 5% to 15% of their entire stock portfolios into gold stocks and other PM stocks and/or
even buy and hold the metals themselves, as "investment insurance." Yet he said that virtually no stock broker today even considers giving their clients such important advice,

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There was an old school in money management operating in
the financial centers for which gold was an automatic safe
haven/refuge in response to untoward events, turmoil, fears.
They are gone.

Sailboat keel? Cemetary stone ( covered with concrete ) ? How about in the heart of an old oak tree? Cast into a statue of your grandfather leading the charge up Little Round Top?

Much has been made about Asia's pandemic currency deflation that has been unfolding during the last half of 1997. The most recent "victim" that has sought an IMF bailout is South Korea ( USD $50+ billion; the biggest yet ) , but the shock waves are now washing the Japanese shores, too.

Are China and India poised to follow suit? Such a chain of events is not unthinkable in light of the crushing debt load these 2+ billion people carry. Will they find new economic vigor or collapse under the heavy burden? Time will tell.

Not to be overlooked during this challenging period is that several Central Banks are lightening up on their respective gold hordes. Commentators on CNN, CNBC, and ABN have pointed to this fact and the commensurate fall in gold's fetching price. They offer this as proof the monetary significance of gold as a hedge against hard times only plays on the pages of history.

They may well be right in this analysis. However, it is a fact that for each ounce of gold the current reserve holders dispose of, someone else is the buyer. We know who is selling, but my question is, "Who's buying and why?"

There is an old adage labeled commonly as the golden rule, i.e., "He who has the gold, rules." This type of economic rule is not enthroned under a symbolic crown, but rather in the halls of the international banksters during the past three centuries.

The conventional wisdom is that the Central Banks of planet #3 are an arm of the respective sovereign government in which they reside. Facts do not bear this mistaken belief.

Over the centuries, Central Banks came into existence under respective franchises granted from the various governments they "serve." Craftily cloaking their private ownership under names implying government affiliation ( Federal Reserve System, Bank of England, etc. ) , they are in fact private banking corporations responsive to the interest of their shareholders.

You may hold shares of AT&T, Microsoft, General Motors, and such in your personal portfolio. But have you ever tried to buy a share of the Federal Reserve System? You would discover that it is a closely held corporation and the shares of its three stock classifications are not publicly traded. But someone owns the equity shares of the Federal Reserve System all the same.

While I don't know the respective equity structure of all the noted Central Banks, I suspect research would disclose a similar closely held and seldom if ever publicly traded position.

The debt money system ( as opposed to the honest money system of circulating gold and silver coin ) reached its existent apex under policies enacted prior to the end of World War II commonly know as the Bretton Woods Agreement.

With few interruptions since that point, the world's debt money supply has expanded by orders of magnitude reaching today's staggering proportions. The few contractions until this last half of 1997 have been localized affecting this or that sovereign government.

The dynamics of the 5+ month old Asian Currency Contagion are fundamentally different. Since WW II, the economic powers have striven to reign in inflation ( an expansion of the money supply ) afraid that left unchecked the expansion process would quickly spiral into ruinous hyper inflation. Indeed, this is often the prudent and most appropriate position.

However, the problem Asia ( and the world? ) now faces is even more worrisome. The deflation devil is at the door and his strong claws are ravaging and slashing at the economic vitality from within each sovereign's guts. Banks and related financial institutions throughout Asia are toppling from their former high station as the foundation of their house of cards is shaken.

But let's return to the question that begs an answer, "Who's buying the gold and why?"

While I don't propose to know the answer, please allow me to postulate a position and you judge if it squares with the facts of this unique situation.

Since the fall of the Roman Empire and its hegemony over the emission of legal tender coin money into circulation, various persons throughout history have set their sites on manipulating that supreme position of power. Some have come closer than others, but to date all efforts have fallen short of the mark.

Over the last three centuries, a banking consortia has become most eminent in this regard. This is the interlocking network of privately owned Central Banks and their related banks operating from within respective sovereign states. The mischief and purpose of their owners have made good advances under this monetary scheme, but the elusive goal of supreme monetary authority has eluded them because their foundation stems from the multitude of sovereigns that franchised their creation.

I submit that the bear raid collapse of October 1987 might well have been a trial run. A testing of the international interlocking mechanism if you will. For a brief period, the world witnessed a demonstration of how the international debt money system founded on the practice of fractional reserve banking raged around the planet with gale force winds of change.

As quickly as the storm commenced, it stopped. Characterized as a market adjustment, the ten years that followed have been heralded as the longest sustained period of world wide economic expansion that has ever trampled the Earth before.

Such expansion often invites excess. Conspicuous consumption, real estate bubbles of non-performing assets inflated beyond the bursting point, stock exchanges attaining unrealistic and unsustainable price to earnings ratios; all of these traits have been evident and prevalent throughout Asia ( China and India included ) . Financed by ready bankster credit stemming from a flood of foreign exchange washed ashore seeking a short term home, good times abounded and the seeds of destruction took root.

Every period of inflation is followed by a period of deflation. Banksters inflate the money supply to give incentives to the common man to take upon his shoulders the mantle of debt. Before long, the willing victim internalizes, "If a little debt produces such good rewards, than more debt will make me wealthy beyond my dreams."

And for a time it appeared so. Not unlike a farmer rounding out his herd within the confines of a feed lot, the international banksters fed the internal banking system of their selected sovereign targets a steady flow of funds. And then the flooding flow was abruptly cut to a trickle once the objective marbled weight was achieved. The herd was then judged fit for slaughter.

Like a Judas goat, Thailand was a most useful stage for playing out the banksters phase #1 deflation act. With an economy pushed up to dizzying heights riding on a flood tide of foreign exchange inflows, these simple people vainly thought it was their craft and guile that reaped this rich harvest.

Mercedes Benz, Volvos and other luxury car imports grid locked their commercial streets. A nightly stream of Johnny Walker Black Whiskey gave way to Johnny Walker Blue priced at USD $200+ per bottle.

The more they spent, the more face the former klong dwelling rice farmer recently turned real estate tycoon enjoyed. And the debt mounted.

Unscrupulus sovereign banksters took the feed bait extended by the scheming international banksters. They greedily advanced credit for finance dubious property development without asking prudent questions so long as they pocketed ill gotten kickbacks.

So why do international banksters deflate the currency? When loans aren't paid back and they loose, too? Maybe not. Remember this, the "substance" of debt money is a concept; indebtedness.

The international banksters loan concepts into existence and the borrowing public circulates these measures of debt thereby extracting goods and services in the process. After sufficient booty has been amassed ( wealth in the form of mortgaged buildings and land ) , the international banksters reap their ill gotten harvest by subtle manipulations of the debt money volume in circulation. Without enough debt money circulating for all the mortgages to be serviced, the banksters foreclose on the choicest of their picks.

So who is buying the gold and why? Let's suppose for a moment that the appetite of the international banksters to feed on human misery is no longer to be satisfied by crushing this or that sovereign. What if their objective is to destroy all the sovereign currencies on planet #3? What if their sites this time around are set on the entire lot: USD; DEM; JPY; GBP; ITL; CHF; etc.?

Wouldn't the fires loosed by pursuing that plan destroy their Central Banks, too? Certainly would. And that may be the answer to both questions in one.

The only real ( non-concept ) monetary asset the Central Banks possess that will survive the coming inferno is their respective gold hordes. If the juristic persons embodied as Central Banks will be destroyed in this purge of sovereign currencies, then doesn't it make sense for the shareholders ( natural people; air breathers ) to plunder the Central Banks' gold stocks while they can still choose to act thus?

So what happens after the debt money slate is wiped clean through the process of deflation ( and its last resort brother hyper inflation ) ?

Throughout history, whenever one money system collapses, it is followed by a replacement. IMHO, what is envisaged is a world value card. Money will mutate beyond its physical conceptual form ( fiat currency, debt money checks, etc. ) straight to the bits and bytes form.

Mastercharge International's MONDEX card, VISA International's Cash Card, etc. are undergoing field test today. Their release date is contemplated for around the turn of the century. Who knows, maybe a total collapse of the world's shaky debt money system and associated trade and commerce is the "silver bullet" for working through the Y2K problem.

So what is the role of gold under the New World Order? Debt money and its fiat paper currency form will be an object of collective loathing blamed for all manner of misery. At that point, the people will be receptive to the new e-money. To instill the public's confidence in exchanging something they can't see or touch, the "new" international banksters will show off their collective gold horde acquired months before the fall and pledge this "backing of gold substance" as the underpinning of e-money.

Before you go running out the door half cocked to amass you personal corner from the gold market, think about this. To make their e-money "backing" work, wouldn't it be just perfect if the NWO banksters declared it a crime against humanity to hold or trade in gold or any thing but e-money? The last book of the Holy Book has something prophetic to say about that, too.

John Galt

To be fair to USA Gold, they usually post in the morning. Note the following from their URL " GOLD 289.00 +.10 / MARKET UPDATE ( 7/31/98 AM ) . Gold was up +.10 at the time of their post, which one could consider "gold stubbornly holding its own". Gold did not "break" until closer to 1PM.

I have never experienced a time where the public have been convinced in mass that all is ok! The Great Reckoning eludes to the over-heated financial markets of 19-29 along with the blind trust on behalf of investors! So does one deduct that we are about to relive another major crash and depression? In my opinion the odds are in favor of a major crash for more than one reason! The maket fundamentals are shouting out signals that the market is producing nothing short of illusions of strength and more importantly the futures are being manipulated to support theses illusions. The real danger lies in the Mutual Fund Industry which is about to face redemption numbers that will force margin calls and huge baskets of liquidations. Credit lines will be depleted over night and the leverage will add more fuel to the fire. As the press show pictures of fund holders lined up outside the funds offices hoping to cash out and stories of phone lines being jammed with panicky holders the frenzy wil begin! We are about to witness HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF and we will now experience first hand the unwinding of the world economies............. As it relates to Gold one must have faith that this unwinding process will expose the real gold market and it will once again take its rightful place in everyones portfolio. There is no doubt that the market is headed lower and the xau will follow during the swift slide and at some point during the slide Gold will come back into favor! Am also convinced that the powers to be are pushing gold lower here to give the shorts a chance to cover. The last thing this market needs is Defaults on Derivitives. The ponzi game on gold is about to fold and ne must not be hoodwinked into believing that gold is headed towards $240.00 as has been suggested on this forum. Lets all take a deep breath and remember why we invested in gold in the first place...................LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

Or opening offshore bank accounts ...

I can verify the truth of RLM's posting, as I read the USA site BEFORE the bottom dropped out of gold yesterday.
--Skip

In the inevitable down-draft of the stock market, what is the danger of investment houses going bankrupt? Also, what happens to the stock certificates which they hold for investors? Would it be prudent to hold ones own certificates? I intend to maintain at least a potion of my gold stocks and ride the waves to better times. Thoughts?

All of which started taking the liquidity out of their economy....

Foreign money will leave the market. That will cause a crash.

I have decided to put some American ingenuity to use and set up my own business. Marketing my main mega product Oops Pads a complete set of 20 foot thick interlocking foam pads for surrounding entire city blocks coming soon to a town near you should you decide to throw in the towel and jump out the window. This way people can have the thrill of flipping out and completely losing it but not splattering themselves all over the pavement killing themselves and increasing other individuals dry cleaning bills needlessly.

Unisex three piece suits, socks, ties and shirts, plus a casual golfing blazer, shirt and slacks made of Kevlar and Nomex in case an irate investor/broker decides to go postal and spray any particular area with an overdose of lead or high flash point emollient.

Also the hand held GET EVEN shot tube made of titanium utilizing flare sized shells containing Teflon shot. I figure I can made money on both the defensive and attack phase of this soon to be burgeoning market.

Full production is underway

"The powers or financial capitalism had ( a ) far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

Prof. Carroll Quigley in his book Tragedy and Hope
( Bill Clinton's Professor at Harvard )

Early stages. 8 to 10 more years. Scary yes. God bless.

Staff in the IT division of my company are leaving in their droves on a monthly basis. Turnover is probably close to 30% per annum with all leaving for Europe or the USA. Y2K work, eurodollar conversion, weak rand, high real interest rates, etc. have led to this.

Future doesn't look great since skilled staff departing. Official emigration figures show a substantial increase recently ( massive undercount, anyway ) . New Employment Equity Bill approaching which entrenches affirmative action - demonstrated to have failed in USA.

Hiya! No, it wasn't me who complimented you on your writing, although I do so now. Yup, you're good. Words are powerful; skill with words is leveraged power.

Anyway, unable to pull up your new MONEX market trends for 7/31/98. If it's not posted to that site yet, would you mind posting it here at Kitco?

Thank you!

And I've contributed to the forum others that I have found.
But really __LONG__ term storage seems to be inadequately addressed.
I know about packing with various inert gases, drying, etc.
Though grains stored in the Pharoahs' tombs seemed to last.
Stocking grains seems to be an inefficient way to store calories.
A grain mill seems best if you either like fresh ground grain
or if you are planning to grow your own grains. Flour doesn't keep as well as whole grain - so a mill for that purpose may be a good idea. Otherwise just buy pasta and other prepared grains.
CANNED goods seem to have a shelf life of five years or more.
Does anyone have experience with really old cans of food.
I still have some 10 year old evaporated milk that is still good for pancakes, cooked pudding, tea, coffee, etc ( a little browner but tastes okay - though I can't recommend drinking it - even "fresh" stuff - yuk! )
Dehydrated or freeze-dried foods, though expensive last a long time.
I have 27 year-old Mountain House meat bars packed in foil.
I tried one last winter and it was fine. Protein may be scarce - especially meat protein after the wildlife is decimated by hunters.

What are thoughts on how long to get the food growing and distribution network back up during the worst case scenario?

The best solution is to wait until after the smoke clears and the predators kill each other off and then move to where one can grow a garden and raise chickens, etc ( like my family did as I grew up ) . For me that may still be possible. But others here may be stuck in urban areas or in climates not suited for gardens. How do we ( incl. me if I stay here ) survive 5-10 years of TEOTWAWKI before we can start to recover?

Having Gold may only be useful if there is some distribution "system" in place for us to buy stuff. In 2010 I wonder what 12-year old cans of chili would be worth?

I ain't kidding....

I was on the practice green yesterday puttin' a couple-o-balls and when I look up this BIG TALL DARK NIKE CLAD fella drops down a few balls and starts to practice putting................

As we got closer to each other I putted a few balls in the hole and this brought me close enough to say, "good season Michael, Congratulations on your SIXTH ring"...........uh huh. Michael said, "Thanks". He smiled and continued on sinking his puts.

I picked my Jaw off the grass and carried it off to the bathroom so as not to pee my pants............. ( EB bowing down to greatness ) ....... ( shakin like a leaf ) ..........

What a thrill.................He is a HUGE presence and his smile lit me.......... ( whoa ) ...I still have goose bumps.......

He had a LARGE 'posse' with him and the buzz at the club was feverish. I thought that if I was ever in the presence of such a person I would be OK........was I wrong. Damn.

Should I have said to him "GO GOLD"?!?!?

away.....to shake it off.....still.


OK! You're right! Castrate me! I'm guilty! I use BIG CAPS too much! For this I am sorry! Mea Culpa! BUT there are some things you gotta' understand about me. I am usually in such a hurry to post that I often hit the caps lock key without realizing it and simply fail to go back and correct it. Has nothing to do with insecurity or megalomania or lack of proper toilet training or any of that other pseudo pyscho-analytical bullscheiss--just plain speed, thick fingers, enthusiasm for my subject, and laziness to edit everything to the exacting standards of perfectionists such as yourself--AND THAT, mein Freund, is a wholly different NEUROSIS that you might wish to explore sometime when you've got nothing better to do than carp about BIG CAPS vs. little ones. Seems kinda' neurotic to me! But since you and I don't often agree about anything anyway, also kinda' irrelevant!

JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION! WILL NOT ENGAGE IN ANY FOOD FIGHTS! xcept with Disney and EB! : )

I accept...
that I am the blue-ribbon/gold-star/first-place winner...at:
putting the foot in the mouth....- or is it - 'up the ass'..
here at kitco, on market - timing.

Evenso/nevertheless/or because/therefore:
a-while back, I posted an opinion, as to the following:
"...a whole new bear-market chapter,
may be unfolding for gold...."

This opinion & post of some weeks ago,
was based on the Commmitment of Traders Pattern...
- specifically on the Commmercials,
and their re-newed net-long/buying,
as indicated in the chart-lines' values/patterns,
which exceeded their previously declining cyclical 'tops'.

This has ushered in a whole new chapter of possibility....
where we might consider envisioning
far lower prices for the precious metals,
than anything we've considered, so far.

For, if the Commmercials are renewing their purchase of gold, at recently higher 'long-values', as gold prices go lower, this may suggest that the Commercials may even have more have a buying apppetite,
at even more lower gold quotes.

In other words, the ""ideal/classic"" model of ...
"buying a bottom" ...
using COT ( -Commmitment of Traders ) data/patterns...
is not apparent, at this time, in the gold market.

We saw this 'ideal/classic' COT pattern....
in the first half of of '98,
in: Cotton, and in SoyMeal, and in T-Notes, on the buy-side.

Remember, the ideal/classic COT patttern of timing a bottom, is when:
prices cyclically decline over weeks/months...
as also....simulatneously....
Commercials/COT...in their net long/buying pattterns decline, as well/simultaneously, with the lower prices.....cyclically/periodically...

This reveals that:
the Commercials have bought all they want/gorged-themselves--
even though prices are going even lower,
the Commmercials keep buying less & less.

In other words, in the above examples of
Cotton, Soymeal & T-Notes, in the first half...:
the 'big-boys' are sated/satisfied/secure....
in their .... """position""".

Thus,
in those cases/examples,
prices were bound to go up....
which they did.

However, with the unfolding gold-market,
where the recent pattern in the Commmercials/COT,
has reached to new net-long/buying values,
vs its pattern in the first half of '98;
this suggests that a whole new chapter
of loweer gold prices
may be in the making.

A caveat:
this is just one technical timing indicator;
never swing on a single branch.

Sincerely,
David
goldfever@k-online.com
P.S.
You can inquire about COT data/charts,
at dearborn.com
or
Pinnacle Data Corp.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a461293.htm

Modest disagreement between two of our best posters. RJ thinks the $278 POG low will hold; APH talking about considerably lower quotations.

Whatever the exact low turns out to be, I agree with APH that this will be the final washout. My guess is marginal new lows for POG and XAU followed by a powerful rally.

The ember of Y2k UNCERTAINTY is glowing brightly in America's heartland.

Distributors of life's staples are complaining they cannot get product
fast enough that there is zero inventory that shelves are bare
that product supplies are out the door immediately to fill building
back-orders.

Public Concern about the MILLENNIUM BUG is amassing in the US Midwest.
Prudent people are stocking up on Long-Term STORABLE FOOD.

G-O-L-D__E-A-G-L-E staff made surveys which reveal that many, many, many
thousands are preparing NOW for the looming Y2K risk.

Needless to say, as the MILLENIUM BUG picks up moment via
the media and/or via word of mouth, public attention will begin to
focus on GOLD. Can you imagine what growing
demand from grass-root levels will have on the
price of the yellow metal, gold coins and
precious metals stocks?!
Can you imagine the devastation in Wall Street?!

The motto for 1999 may well be "PREPARE AND SURVIVE"

Ironically, the Amish will be the best prepared to face the
MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Full report at following URL. Before posting to the Internet delete
The extra letters "en" in word "golden"

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky080398.html

The view is better than buried in a crypt or in some mine or cave.
Centuries from now they may find old bones with some Gold & Silver coins nearby - like tombs of our ancient ancestors.

Quit shouting will ya? We can all read without all that BIG CAPS schtick messing up our screens! Why don't you conform to the accepted standards of our most respected posters like myself?

Just my personal opinion, of course! Don't want any food fights and refuse to engage in any!

RJ, the director and enforcer of proper internet etiquette.

I worship the water Michael walks on.

Test.

Thanks, Bart.

John Galt? As in "The Strike" aka "Atlas Shrugged"?

What kinda cheese are we talkin about here anyway? Is it fromunda?? And if you type so fast with big fingers one may wonder if you are not using your cheese thing to type with.

Anyway............you make me ROF..........

And I will not waste my time throwing food at you. I must save ALL food for this WhyTwoKay when ALL the power grids turn out for more than 60 days and the world turns into that movie The Omega Man with Chuck Heston cause there wiil be panic and mayhem and gold will be the only thing traded because I'd rather have a gold coin versus a CHEEZE sandwich or one of Aurators Famous Ham sandwiches ;- ) .

This place cracks me up so much sometimes..............yuk-yuk.

No offense Squirrel but are you truly serious about this storing of food for ten or more years?? Wow. I had better not throw anymore food......

AWAY!!
schuckin&Jivin'asusaul

later!...

I guess I'll start things off with a joke:


WHY WE'RE ALL SO TIRED


For a couple years I've been blaming it on iron deficient blood, lack
of vitamins, dieting and a dozen other maladies. But now I found
out the real reason. I'm tired because I'm overworked.


The population of this country is 237 million. 104 million are
retired. That leaves 133 million to do the work.


There are 85 million in school, which leave 48 million to do the
work.


Of this there are 29 million employed by the federal government.
This leaves 19 million to do the work.


Four million are in the Armed Forces, which leaves 15 million to do
the work.

Take from the total the 14,800,000 people who work for State and
City Government and that leaves 200,000 to do the work.


There are 188,000 ill and in hospitals, so that leaves 12,000 to do the
work.


Now, there are 11,998 people in Prisons. That leaves just two people
to do the work. You and me. And you're sitting there f***in' around
on the Kitco Forum.

THe Nike clad guy. You could have asked him if he wanted to buy some Disney stock. Also you could mention that Nike is out of style. Suggest Addidas.

There are three labrador retrievers sitting in the waiting
room at the vet's; a black lab, a brown lab and a yellow lab.

The black lab turns to the brown lab and says, "Why are you
here?"

The brown lab says, "I'm a pisser. I piss on everything. I
pissed on my owners sofa, their carpets, their drapes, but the last
straw was when I pissed in the middle of their bed." The black lab
says, "What is the vet going to do to you?" The brown lab says, sadly,
"Lethal injection."

Then the brown lab asks the black, "Why are you here?"
The black lab says, "I'm a digger. I dig under fences, I dig
up the flowers, the bushes. When I'm inside, I dig up the carpets but
the last straw was when I dug a big hole in my owner's sofa."

The brown lab says, "What's the vet going to do to you?"And the black lab says sadly, "Lethal injection."

Then the black and brown labs turn to the yellow lab and ask,
"Why are you here?" The yellow lab says, "I'm a humper. I'll hump
anything. I'll hump the cat, the dining room table, a fire hydrant.
Whatever I see, I want to hump. Why, last week, my owner had taken a shower and was drying her toes and I couldn't help it, I just hopped on her back and humped her."

The black lab says, "So you're here for a lethal injection,
too?"

"No, I'm getting my nails clipped."

and he is in cash right now.....he has it on 'authority' from a good 'top specialist' that this market will dive come October ( 22 ) . He told me he was in the middle of his backswing the other day when someone 'cast some pearls' at him and he ran to call his broker to pull ALL stocks and wait until the Euro bull and the New-Feb-Dow-Bull. He called London and bought as much bullion as he could get his Nike-Clad hands on...............and now his backswing couldn't be more relaxed....

I mentioned you were into Adidas..........he just smiled and shrugged. Oh well, ya can't win 'em all. go gold.
away...to wait for more pearls.......not the necklace please ;- )
waitinforthelist

Someone with the handle "farfel" is posting on K2, but I haven't been able to substantiate the ID.

http://www.sightings.com/ufo/yskfoodyard.htm

http://www.wegmans.com/kitchen/storage/index.html

http://ndsuext.nodak.edu/extnews/askext/foodstor.htm

http://www.eckent.com/prepare/foodstor.html

http://www.stor-tite.com/

I see nothing here
nor on the horizon,
to deter from this
poetic rhyme of reason & ruin,
upon us all.

...
"...re-copy of kitco.com posting, of 9/27/97:

"When the 'tent' collapses

it will not be the 'center-post'

that goes first;

it will be the 'side-posts',

and even the 'stakes'.

For, as 'Asian Tigers'

shake, shudder, & quake:

shedding their fur...

while they still feign to demure.

Just when a cold wind,

begins to blow in;

as 'indian-summer' - too long

holding on;

with wishful thinking, all a-long. ..."

Seems to me, the 'stakes' keep getting
pulled-out... ( "stakes" - such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, So. Korea, & Russia, etc. )

And even the 'side-posts', such as Japan, are being up-rooted,
even more.

And so the cold windows of fury ...
and winter's biting, piercing, cleansing truth...
will not much longer be ignored
postponed
denied
mis-understood
yet, never missed.....


And in the hiss
of this deadly serpent
will humanity
again
surrender
to its
soul - full of humility.

Chop wood & carry water
will be the rhythm of salvation's song
for many
as we all
trod a-long.

One of the neighbors last year got tired of looking at the 40 cases ot tuna tins in the corner of his bomb shelter, both remnants of his overzealous 70's doomsday scare, and after a pretty good bar-be-que with a little too much refreshment, got a couple of the sheep shearers to open the cases and throw the cans as far as they could while the BBQ guests shot at them with 16 gauge shotguns just for fun. Tuna fish everywhere for 200 yards, drew buzzards for days.

The word, by the way, is that Clinton will announce on Monday that the dress was really his, and that Monica was closely guarding his secret, no affair ever happened -- he figures this would be the path of least resistance at home since all other admissions might cause real problems.

So what do you see for PMs over the next few weeks?

sorry.

As long as someone was in cash. I dam sure am. Go cash, but buy the crash.

I am serious now.......

ALL TRADERS not BSers but TRADERS...
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha58.gif

I have posTED this many times in the past. Can you guys see the perfect pattern here?? What will happen? It must relate to gold or the Euro or something. APH, Earl, Disney, Preacher, RJ, Hep, Nick@C, JTF, Donald, Kuston ( ? ) , ANYONE!

How will this play out.....I will be ALL OVER the breakout.....and I will make MORE bucks while the pattern finishes...screw the metals.......this has been soooooo predictable.....and lucrative.

ANOTHER???? THOUGHTS????

give it to me brothers and sisters of this, this kitco.
away...cause now the lawns really await my mower...
justsaysnotoallcaps


bloop and cheeze can cast their pearls here too.....as long as it is small caps ( not the stock kind either ) ..............

Current "farfel" on K-2 has a different ID number than previous "farfel." Just asked about PMs. If his/her response includes the terms *portend,* *augur,* or *as per,* then it might be him. We watch this new "farfel" resurrection together, yes?

99 bear after intrest rate increases to defend the dollar. It will fail. Rates will have to be lowered to save the economy. Poor billary. They hung him. It was the Clinton Bear market. Maybe he shouldn't have taken credit for the boom.

I was looking for answers. After reading this article, there
is a new question. Does the Federal Reserve or U.S. Treasury
now own the gold?
---------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.celestia.com/SRP/AS95/Html/StateOfNation.html

Will give way to the December Break out EB. Even Disney will rise. I will be kicking arse having been in cash until late October. January will rally further, but rates will be on the verge of rising.

Bart, I often wonder what thoughts go through your head as you witness the total absence of posters on your new creation, Kitco 2. It's a shame since I imagine a great deal of work went into the creation of this alternate site.

Yet, the absence of posters here represents the inherent problem facing gold investors. They swarm together like bees in a hive, afraid to strike out independently and question the "rules and regs" of the hive.

Despite continued bandwidth problems on K-1 ( Yes, I have lurked on occasion, despite my fabulous 404 ) , all the gold investors continue to post exclusively on that forum. You would think that, when bandwidth is slowing things down there, the K-1 posters would gravitate toward K-2. It makes sense, doesn't it?

Yet, K-2 remains a graveyard...that's because K-1 has evolved into some exclusive, hallowed club sanctioned and blessed by the gold shorts who fashion the goldbug view on "the way things really work" in the metals markets.

Only the dregs of goldbugism would consider posting on K-2. Only the non-technicians, the non-chartists, the anti-Merrill Lynchers, the anti-Armstrongs, the anti-Arnolds, the anti-O'Neils, anti-anti-gold'ers, the anti-status quo types, would consider posting on K-2.

Moreover, for goldbugs to post on K-2 would imply a departure from a rut.
Goldbugs do not like to leave their ruts.

What ruts do goldbugs find themselves in?

Well, if you're a gold producer, then you buy into the rut of leasing gold, even though in the long run, it is an endorsement of a gold short's dream. Gold leasing in aggregate destroys the POG.

All gold leasing should end summarily. The miners as a collective should get together and refuse to follow the Munk road to ruin. Then watch the POG explode.

If you're a gold investor, your rut is as follows: upon any announcements of central bank gold sales, you are supposed to panic and dump all your gold holdings...even before you've investigated who purchased those gold sales. You must conveniently ignore the fact that the majority of CB gold sales are intra-bank and do not affect the total volume of gold hitting the market.

When Merrill Lynch explains that a mere 15% gold support of the EURO is a major disappointment, then you must panic and dump all your gold holdings. Do NOT question why! Do NOT wonder exactly who is disappointed! Ted Arnold maybe? Armstrong maybe? Certainly, not any rational gold investor. Again, you must dump your gold and immediately buy a load of YAHOO!

When any self-anointed "Trust Me" gold expert explains that European gold sales will continue until 1999, then you must say, "Yowsah, Massa, whatever you say, suh. Now I guess I be goin to sells all my gold now, Massa, thas wha i be doin, OK?" Again, you must never question where those gold sales ( if they truly exist ) are directed and must NEVER suppose that the odds favor they are intra-bank sales.

So, in a nutshell, I advocate that goldbugs get out of their collective ruts.

Start now...in small ways. Try K-2 for example. It won't harm you.
There's a ton of writing space available here. It only takes a mere few seconds to check out both forums. Certainly it is advantageous to post here when K-1 is stalledout.

According to Bart, the rules on K-2 are much more lax. More allowance for profanity and irreverence and iconoclasm.

OK, Bart. How's that? When are you sending me my commission?

Thanks.

F*

One major flaw in the bear case. Insider buy/sell ratios bullish.

I even hope you make some bucks. I still recommend selling Disney into a tradeable rally, then buying it back in late October. Either way I wish you luck.

Insider buy/sell chart:

http://www.argusgroup.com/

What have you been smoking?

.. er .. we gon bomb a rittle tlee ??

For Robnoel and Limberger breath..
Read your postings and references to the Boer
Bullsh!t weekly ... Great stuff .. let me know
when you sober up ..

For Limberger ..
Very recently you demonstrated that you dont know
the difference between a Japanese war cry and a
dwarfed tree. Anyone who attaches any importance
to your opinions deserves to lose money..

For Aph
How do you like "Get"?? Does it do anything for you??

To all ..
Rumours abound that the series of Tsunamis off
New Guinea have led to large amounts of gold from
the Lihir deposit being washed up on the Natal
beaches .. I really dont believe a word of it.

...I've decided to take several posters' advice.

I will avoid making prognostications about metals.

Instead, I would rather focus upon my strengths...analysis of market psychology and economics.

However, I will note that Hepcat ( aka gogold ) is acknowledged by Kitco veterans to have the best track record in gold forecasting and market timing. It is interesting to note his call of 325 gold by early November. Quite a trend shift on his part.

His forecast is of notable interest given his past resolute negativity toward gold.

Thanks.

F*

Bloops ..

Dont be too critical .. and pass me the
roach.

How many CEOs buy at the TOP. Are you buying equities. If you are, you would love EB.

A priest was called away for an emergency. Not wanting to leave the
confessional unattended, he called his rabbi friend from across the
street and asked him to cover for him. The rabbi told him he wouldn't
know what to say, but the priest told him to come on over and he'd stay
with him for a little bit and show him what to do.

The rabbi comes and he and the priest are in the confessional. In a
few minutes a woman comes in and says "Father forgive me for I have
sinned. I committed adultery."

Priest says: "How many times?"

Woman: "Three times."

Priest says, "Say two Hail Marys, put $5.00 in the box, and sin no
more."

A few minutes later a man enters the confessional. He says, "Father
forgive me for I have sinned."

Priest says, "What did you do?"

Man says, "I committed adultery."

Priest asks, "How many times?"

Man replys, "Three times."

Priest says, "Say two Hail Marys, put $5.00 in the box, and sin no
more."

The Rabbi tells the priest that he thinks he's got it so the priest
leaves. A few minutes later another woman enters and says, "Father
forgive me for I have sinned."

Rabbi says, "What did you do?"

Woman replys, "I committed adultery."

Rabbi asks, "How many times?"

Woman says "Once."

Rabbi says, "Go do it two more times, we have a special this week,
three for $5.00."

Gold & Silver are finding their "final" selling climax,
in the period - days/few-weeks..... just ahead.

Open interest is declining, on lower prices, over time.
Daily/weekly volume, is increasing,
as the bottom ( panic ) approaches. ...
into a selling climax.

This will be, imho,
a V bottom, or perhaps a W-bottom, vs prices of the last 9 mos.;it may apppear, by hindsight, to be a long-term 'saucer' bottom...

whatever...

We are about to witness,
a final spike down, to final lows;
it will be quick,
it will be over,
now,
and
soon.

Youse guys are free to be as dumb as dirt, or as brilliant as a star. I frequently alternate myself.

Bloops ..
But you seem tense ..
.. and whatever Old Gold Smokes is
Okay by me ..

Keep me straght man. My dad said it was a tough job. I do get carried away . You buying a lot of equities these days John?

MIG welding machines use a mixture of inert gases such as nitrogen/argon or nitrogen/argon/CO2. If a person didn't have a MIG welder he could still probably find a friend who did. Or he could go get a couple of pounds of dry ice, which is pure frozen CO2. No advice, just educational information. IMHO

But gold is also nearly inert so should do nicely in air, underwater, in a dunghill, or similar places. I did hear though ( b'lieve it was on Kitco in fact ) that putting them in one's swimming pool chlorinator will dissolve them. IMHO

The news is great to me. You buy in late October ( having been in cash ) . Then you scarf up the December--January rally before rates are raised.

Blooper: I am firmly in the bear camp. But best to be aware of all the indicators -- especially those that do not support your position. I doubt we will see a sustained bear market as long as the insiders are buying heavily. A steep short-term drop yes! But a sustained bear -- probably not.

My guess is the insiders will turn decisively to the sell side before year-end. But until then it might be best to temper one's bearishness with a bit of caution.

Goldfever: I have been talking about a summer selling climax for some time now. Glad you are starting to see things my way.

I'm not calling for a bear, just a crash. Then an opportunity. Check 1987. Then overlay 1989. Tell me what you see. Do it.... December thru January will be verry profitable, assuming you were in cash in late October.

Rhody...for invaluable info pertaining to gold lease rates.

Donald...for incredible facts and info pertaining to all aspects of life from a wide variety of sources.

A.Goose...for great gold and silver inventory analysis.

HenryD...for great insight and ability in detecting true tone of voice in Kitco postings.

Tyoung...for taking on the gold short arguments whenever they arise.

Sam ( Not Sam ) ....for strong in-depth knowledge of the gold industry.

Gollum...for superb economic analysis.

Hepcat ( gogold ) ...for going against "The Trend is Your Friend."

Of course, there are many more...but these are just a few that pop into my mind.

Thanks.

F*

There will be a tradeable rally in late August, if you're nimble. The selling climax will come in late October, arter the crash. One hell of a buying opportunity. Let's wait and watch.

Bloops ..
I bought RSA golds because I knew the quarterlies
would be good and to cover my @ss when I came back
into the rand too early from the dollar ..
Good quarterlies were ignored by the market and
I would have done better to sweat out the rand in cash.
Dont like ANY equities at all ..
Somethings blowing in the wind ..
The sky is speading with a stain ..
Something will come down like rain..
and it wont be roses ..
.. you know what I mean ??

In October. Fear. Panic. The music stops, and there aren't enough chairs.

blooper--EB-- foxy-- whoxy-- will raid your chicken-coop while you're asleep on the wheels, best to hire some gorganzola body guards, best regards!

Bloops ..
That MIG is such a great plane that
you can even WELD with it..

I'm shakin buddy. Bring it on right now you wuss.

A little old lady goes to the doctor and says, "Doctor I have this
problem with gas, but it really doesn't bother me too much. They never
smell and are always silent. As a matter of fact, I've farted at least
20 times since I've been here in your office. You didn't know I was
farting because they don't smell and are silent." The doctor says, "I
see, take these pills and come back to see me next week." The next week
the lady goes back. "Doctor," she says, "I don't know what the hell you
gave me, but now my farts...although still silent...stink
terribly." The doctor says, "Good!!! Now that we've cleared up your
sinuses, let's work on your hearing."

others misfortune.....if you love the country
that much why don't you covert all your
assets into Rands or are you afraid of losing
your butt......

That's why it is so cumbersom. When ya gatta coppy those stolen US bluprints. It's tough. Ya gotta translate. Use those old big heavy tool and die machines. Hell they must weigh 5 tons. But they do fly.

Your posts about gold remain captivating and enlightening...

Moreover, your stance against thought censorship is appreciated.

Thanks.

F*

You mean you wish you were in cash, where I am?

But I don't be be hateful to even EB. He's human. I think he is. Is he?

The Power of a Smile


She smiled at a sorrowful stranger.
The smile seemed to make him feel better.

He remembered past kindnesses of a friend
And wrote him a thank you letter.

The friend was so pleased with the thank you
That he left a large tip after lunch.

The waitress, surprised by the size of the tip,
Bet the whole thing on a hunch.

The next day she picked up her winnings,
And gave part to a man on the street.

The man on the street was grateful;
For two days he'd had nothing to eat.

After he finished his dinner,
He left for his small dingy room.

( He didn't know at that moment
that he might be facing his doom. )

On the way he picked up a shivering puppy
And took him home to get warm.

The puppy was very grateful
To be in out of the storm.

That night the house caught on fire.
The puppy barked the alarm.

He barked till he woke the whole household
And saved everybody from harm.

One of the boys that he rescued
Grew up to be President.

All this because of a simple smile
That hadn't cost a cent.

Its cumbersom I admit but its so versutull.. Sh!t
man I love spelling.

To learn. To listen. To hassle? To hate? I can't help it if John and EB are Communist sympathizers. Got no use for Migs or Disney Studios. But I can get along with Kitco group. At least I will try.

It was mentioned today that "August is generally not a good month for metals. In Aug of 93 gold opened down $20 one day."

NONETHELESS, there are notable exceptions to the comment.
Consider the following.

AUGUST August Gold Examples ( Gold Futures ) -

August 1979:

The gold low was $283 on 8/6/79. During the next 41 trading days it
soared 51% to $426.

August 1982:

The gold low was $334 on 8/11/82. During the next 18 trading days it
soared 44% to $481.

August 1986:

The gold low was $361 on 8/01/82. During the next 35 trading days it
soared 20% to $435.

Now, let's look at the "Aug of 93 gold opened down $20 one day"
In the 4.5 months proceeding the $20 one day drop, the shiny
had already zoomed 24% from $328 to $406 on 8/2/93 - immediately
prior to the $20 one day plunge. HELL, it deserved to drop
after such a run-up.

BUT THAT AIN'T THE CASE TODAY.

Since gold's low of $278 in December it has gained a miserly 3% to
Friday's close of $286 - a pittance gain of a paltry 8 bucks during the previous seven months.

Based on historical results, and mitigated by current conditions of the paper and Precious metals markets, the gold price seems to me in throes of confirming the bottom area - just as the DOW is in the final throes of confirming its top area. Methinks both levels may not be seen again for many moons to come.

Possibility of Another AUGUST August Gold Rally -

It is NOT a leap of faith to state today's Gold August is more similar in conditions to 1979, 1982 and 1986, than to August 1993. Subsequently, let's assume we may see a repeat performance of the average of the first three Augusts. For our hypothetical I will use $278 as August 1998's low ( in case its current momentum causes the noble metal to spike down to support ) . The average gain in gold's value during the three august periods is 38% within 31 trading days ( about six weeks ) . If indeed gold finally bounces from its nadir of $278 - and does a dj vu performance - it could well scale the heights to $384 by late September.

Whatever gold decides to do, historically, August wasn't a bad time to do it in. In any case I'll bet we will FIRST see an Upside $20 day before we see another $20 Down day.

The Bellringer.

After Quasimodo's death, the bishop of the cathedral of Notre Dame sent
word through the streets of Paris that a new bell ringer was needed. The
bishop decided he would conduct the interviews personally and went up
into the belfry to begin the screening process.

After observing several applicants demonstrate their skills, he decided
to call it a day when a lone, armless man approached him and announced
that he was there to apply for the bell ringer's job.

The bishop was incredulous. "You have no arms!"
"No matter," said the man, "observe!" He then began striking the bells
with his face, producing a beautiful melody on the carillon. The bishop
listened in astonishment, convinced that he had finally found a suitable
replacement for Quasimodo.

Suddenly, rushing forward to strike a bell, the armless man tripped, and
lunged headlong out of the belfry window to his death in the street
below.

The stunned bishop rushed to his side. When he reached the street, a
crowd had gathered around the fallen figure, drawn by the beautiful
music they had heard only moments before.

As they silently parted to let the bishop through, one of them asked,
"Bishop, who was this man?"
"I don't know his name," the bishop sadly replied "but his face rings a
bell."

{Still with me? You want more, you say?}

The following day, despite the sadness that weighed heavily on his heart
due to the unfortunate death of the armless campanologist ( now there's a
trivia question ) , the bishop continued his interviews for the bell
ringer of Notre Dame.

The first man to approach him said, "Your Excellency, I am the brother
of the poor, armless wretch that fell to his death from this very belfry
yesterday. I pray that you honor his life by allowing me to replace him
in this duty."

The bishop agreed to give the man an audition, and as the armless man's
brother stooped to pick up a mallet to strike the first bell, he
groaned, clutched at his chest and died on the spot.

Two monks, hearing the bishop's cries of grief at this second tragedy,
rushed up the stairs to his side. "What has happened?" the first
breathlessly asked, "Who is this man?"

"I don't know his name," sighed the distraught bishop... "but he's a
dead ringer for his brother."

Robnoel ..
If "you can only think that I
support communism" then I can
only think that you do not have
the foggiest idea about very much
at all.

A married man goes to confessions and tells the priest, "I had an affair with a woman - almost." The priest says, "What do you mean, almost'?"

The man says, "Well, we got undressed and rubbed together, but then I
stopped."

The priest replies, "Rubbing together is the same as putting it in.
You're not to go near that woman again. Now, say five Hail Mary's and put $50 in the poor box." The man leaves confessions, goes over and says his prayers, then walks over to the poor box. He pauses for a moment and then starts to leave. The priest, who was watching him, quickly runs over to him and says,"I saw that. You didn't put any money in the poor box!" The man replied,"Well, Father, I rubbed up against it and you said it was the same as putting it in!"

But does anybody know anything about Gold, silver, Dow or money making ideas? I didn't think so. No... wait a minute. Well, I'm gonna go drink some beer. OLD GOLD don't forget to overlay 1987 and 1998. I need a car. My daughter informs me my car is old. Hell, I'm old. Plan to trade with crash money. REBUY in late October. Sell in late January. Yeah man.

your MIG button ..
Bloops ..

.. Where is my bother Oris
anyway ..

Blooper,
Why do we have to wait till October, for the world to wake-up?
Can't they pull their cold, icy cash, out of America, right now?!
My options are about to expire!! - HELP !
........-------_______________

And as for you, robnoel, you ____ ( -fill in your own blank )
my-word,man; you are more angry than even i...
...
what .. IS .. your problem...
let go your energy - invested in judging others...
and invest it,
in your
self discovery

Bloops ..
On your car..

The media celebrated DOW rally is actually a mirage.
The average stock on the NYSE is down 25%, yes 25% from the earlier highs. You would think the "average" investor is also down 25%, unless he was so inclined to invest in DOW only stocks.
The daily new Lows far outstrip the new Highs, another important indicator.
Market "anal-ists" are still telling their clients to buy the dips, so this is allowing the smart money to exit.
In summary, IMO,
Clintons Dress
Asia
Y2K
Record Market Valuations
October Effect
and ????
is setting this market up for one doooosey of a "correction".

3rd quarter profits will kill this market. They come out during the month of.....you guessed it...... October. Hide and watch the rush for the exits.
Of both locals and foreigners.

If gold price collapses below the face value of the coin Philharmonic = 2000 shillings ( $155.00US ) , American Eagle = $50.00US and Canadian Maple Leafs = $50.00Can are the respective governments obligated to redeem the coins for local currencies?

My computer crashed and I lost all the links. Does anyone have the currency trading and graphs link?

I hope you're right. I got it all figured out, now if things will just fall in place. I feel fortunate to be making 5%.

Vronsky; I agree there is a good chance of an August gold rally. Just think it will start from lower levels than we are now at.

Great post on August gold! I have a fair amount of money in a gold mutual fund and physical, and I will ride out this market. Your post will make it easier.

Your most recent Y2K article on the Eagle was excellent. I e-mailed copies to family and friends.

To: GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD
Caps or no caps, your posts are always enjoyable. I always enjoy your chearleading style. Keep up the good work.

Still awaiting the word about where gold is headed. RJ has challenged you coveted position as Kitco's best forecaster. And he has told us what he thinks gold is going to do.

What sayest thou?

Now you're talkin'! AUgust is the month for GOLD! And also GAY ENOLAS, eh DIZ? EB BOOOOOM! heh...heh...heh! Y2K only 75 weekends of golfing with MJ away...ohmy!

I feel GOLD in the air!


De Palma, MGM mine 'Gold'

By Nick Madigan

HOLLYWOOD ( Variety ) - Director Brian De Palma ( ``Mission: Impossible'' )
has signed a muscular deal with MGM for a spec script tentatively titled
``Nazi Gold,'' which he co-wrote with former film critic Jay Cocks.

The action-thriller recalls the Nazis' practice of melting down the gold
teeth and jewelry of Jews to produce gold bullion -- and brings it into the present-day controversy over Nazi holdings in Swiss banks. In the story, a commercial producer becomes involved in a plot to steal Nazi bullion from a Swiss vault, a heist undertaken while the producer is supposedly shooting a commercial in the bank. The thieves' intent is to give the gold bars to the descendants of Holocaust victims.

The deal closed on Thursday after MGM executives made a hurried
assessment of the script, which had reportedly made the rounds at other studios.

``We moved with dispatch,'' MGM president and chief operating officer
Michael Nathanson told Daily Variety from New York. ``We got the script and within 24 hours we had the basic parameters of a deal.''

De Palma had sought more than $10 million -- a sum that was to include
his fee as director and producer as well as Cocks' writing payment -- but he will receive less than that. Production will start in the fall, and will shoot ``all over the world,'' Nathanson said. Casting is underway.

Reuters/Variety
^REUTERS@

Blooper,
How dare you suggest a truth;
but it is only one truth.
I just posted, my opinions, based on Omega/Super-Charts.

The only real Truth,
lives, free, young, old, alive, well,
and yet failing,
in the fall & autumn
of approaching winter;
where winter's seed lies silent, dormant, determined
and delivering, again, in the spring;

where eager it rushes
to meet summer's flower, warmth & fulfillment.

Only the markets themselves continually whisper,
and on rare occasion will shout,
their truth to us.

But we .... mostly.....
most of us,
insist upon
our stopped-up
ears.

Disney is OK. he just likes to string you along sometimes. EB hates my guts.. Maybe you are an arse. Iffin you are fine. Iffin you ain't then drive on.

Limberger-san

Because your bombs are full of
cheese .. like your head..

yes vote:
no vote:

any-one...?:_____________

Date: Sat Aug 01 1998 15:21
goldfevr ( Omega/Super-Charts....my opinion only.... ) ID#434108:
Gold & Silver are finding their "final" selling climax,
in the period - days/few-weeks..... just ahead.

Open interest is declining, on lower prices, over time.
Daily/weekly volume, is increasing,
as the bottom ( panic ) approaches. ...
into a selling climax.

This will be, imho,
a V bottom, or perhaps a W-bottom, vs prices of the last 9 mos.;it may apppear, by
hindsight, to be a long-term 'saucer' bottom...

whatever...

We are about to witness,
a final spike down, to final lows;
it will be quick,
it will be over,
now,
and
soon.

Return to Kitco Homepage

If two men are walking through a forest alone and see a tree fall then one says something to the other and there is no woman to hear him is he still wrong?

If a long term investor buys a gold stock at $X price and doesn't look at the market for a year, then sells it for $X+Y does he make money even though the market dropped to $X-Z while he wasn't watching? Would he still make money if he cheated and looked while the price was down? Does he change the price by looking? Can he find the price and velocity of price change at the same time or does measuring one modify the other? If he sells at $X-Q does he make money in negative time? http://www.honors.unr.edu/~fenimore/wt202/close/

Mr Disney: Metal Inert Gas ( %-^ ) )

...and join the K-2 fun!

I know...you're afraid of ostracism from K-1. Posting on K-2 is considered a demotion over there.

However, it's all a matter of perspective. Seeing the glass half-full or half-empty.

Just like gold...you can spin the perception on a dime...just like what happened to equities back in the early Nineties.

God, I would love to attend a Board of Directors meeting at Merrill Lunch
and speak glowingly about gold, wouldn't you? Just to see the reaction, of course.

Thanks.

F*

Danke sehr, mein Freund! Ich liebe dich auch! Ganz recht! As the Good Book says, "LET GOD ( and I might add, GOLD ) BE TRUE AND EVERY MAN A LIAR!" ( BIIIIIIG CAPS!!! )

I speculate with a great deal of money. My BS matters to me. It's a living to me and what a hobby to you. If my ears are stopped up too many times, I'm broke. And I can't buy my car.

bloops ..
I think this knothead want to blow
me up with a CHEESEBOMB..
.. and thats a ugly way to go ..

1 ) It appeals to my basic narcissism.
2 ) Nobody ever disputes any of my arguments.
3 ) Easy access, no bandwidth problems.
4 ) Just like having your own website...except without the set-up and maintenance fees.
5 ) I can insult various K-1 posters and never hear back from them.
6 ) Better jokes here.

Thanks.

F*

I think that's where Gresham's law comes in. So if gold by some miracle falls to below $50 per ounce and pot metal goes up enough to justify melting pennies we'd see gold being used to buy groceries and pennies hoarded. IMHO

( from Proverbs: )

"A word fitly spoken,
is like apples of gold,
in pictures of silver."

( I just wish they practiced what they preach. )

gagnrad ..
I was being silly ..

Too much cheese causes a disease called dairybutfacephobia ( sorry, thats all I could think of ) . Actually I kind of agree with most of what he says. But he ain't God. Sorry cheese! Anyway , you know how those sour krauts kinda make you burp up stuff.

hey gag,
your too cerebral, i think; like me.
Don't do that to yourself, man; it's a killer.

Imagine there is a bank that credits your account each morning with
$86,400. It carries over no balance from day to day. Every evening
deletes whatever part of the balance you failed to use during the day.
What would you do?
Draw out every cent, of course!!!!
Each of us has such a bank.
Its name is TIME.
Every morning, it credits you with 86,400 seconds.
Every night it writes off, as lost, whatever of this you have failed to
invest to good purpose.
It carries over no balance. It allows no overdraft.
Each day it opens a new account for you.
Each night it burns the remains of the day.
If you fail to use the day's deposits, the loss is yours.
There is no going back.
There is no drawing against the "tomorrow".
You must live in the present on today's deposits.
Invest it so as to get from it the utmost in health, happiness, and
success!
The clock is running.
Make the most of today.


To realize the value of ONE YEAR, ask a student who failed a grade.

To realize the value of ONE MONTH, ask a mother who gave birth to a
pre-mature baby.

To realize the value of ONE WEEK, ask the editor of a weekly newspaper.

To realize the value of ONE HOUR, ask the lovers who are waiting to
meet.

To realize the value of ONE MINUTE, ask a person who missed the train.

To realize the value of ONE SECOND, ask a person who just avoided an
accident.

To realize the value of ONE MILLISECOND, ask the person who won a
silver medal in the Olympics.
Treasure every moment that you have! And treasure it more because you
shared it with someone special, special enough to spend your time.

And remember that time waits for no one.

Yesterday is history
Tomorrow is mystery
Today is a gift
That's why it's called the present!!

Oh, and that deeeeeeep thinking and highly respected leader of the TURD WORLD, NELSON MANDELASTEIN and his booootiful new bride! What happened to wonderful Winnie? Heard she up and RAND away! LOFLMAO Robnoel's got it right about your beloved RSA--and from the looks of things, so does the first-world investor!

Herr Cheese, your capitalization technique is a very interesting facet of your personality.

Don't let the self-anointed sheriffs on K-1 deter you from expressing your fierce, unique personality.

They are NOT really bothered by your capitalization so much as your extremely chauvinistic views on gold and negative opinions about equities.

If you were posting bold slams against gold, those very same sheriffs would never raise a negative comment against you.

Thanks.

F*

It is impossible to shout on an internet forum. No sound here, you see.

Thanks.

F*

May you have many more of them. Your constant stream of information is appreciated. I located your silver chart, thanks

Don't claim to be God now! Never did! And never will! Don't claim to be a liar either, but I am, and so are you, and so is DIZ! Cause the Good Book don't deal in falsehood, but in TRUTH!

Captain Limberger ..
You drop A-bombs on me in far away
places ..
While in the real world ..
You couldnt blow up a balloon.

PS Mandela says thanks for
all the gold from Lihir washed up
on our beaches .. he's out there
now with his little bucket and
shovel.. you know captain .. there are
as many grains of sand on that
beach .. as there are shares of
LIHIR .. 900 MILLION !!!!!
Cheeeeeeese.....

I spoke the other day to a buddy completing a feature film in Montreal.

After going over the usual bunch of Hollywood crap, our talk shifted to the economy.

My friend has had his head buried in his work. It is no easy task to produce a feature film, a real treadmill.

He was shocked to learn of the various economic events transpiring around
the world. In fact, nervous to the Nth degree. He had no idea about Buffett's huge purchase of silver...had not heard anything about Y2K and the impending rush to hard money.

Now, here's a guy who invests in the markets, who is a real heavy metal rock and roller, a ballsy party all night womanizer ( when he gets some free time ) .

Yet, by the time the conversation ended, this guy had his secretary calling a metals house in order to get himself a nice pile of metal.

My point is this: the real obstacle to a metals bull in America is that most Americans are employed, far too busy, and grossly ignorant of events transpiring outside of their workplaces. Moreover, a media working on behalf of government and the Big Corporations ensures that most Americans will never get the true story on various economic and financial manifestations.

Once informed, the fear reaction is visceral and swift.

Thanks.

F*

GOLD and SILVER is the ultimate PHYSICAL TRUTH! And fallen man is the one who keeps messin' 'em both up with his lies, wickedness and deception! Off to play a little golf, swill a few brewskis and savor a tasty brat while you guys keep searchin' for the truth. Wiedersehen!

..
.. I can live with that ..

Kosares and Vronsky continue to post some of the best info about precious metals. Period.

You know how I know it's so good?

Because the various self-appointed sheriffs on K-1 get really pissed off by the info posted on those two great sites.

That's the litmus test of quality.

Thanks.

F*

I will be away for a few hours children and please no more arguing and in-fighting while I am gone!
When a whale is spouting off it is the best chance for him to get harpooned!

...I meant to write, golden eagle.

Thanks.

F*

I really LOVE K-2!!!

Date: Sat Aug 01 1998 15:06
farfel ( Kitco 1 Versus Kitco 2 ( A Metaphor of Goldbug Mentality ) ) ID#341227:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bart, I often wonder what thoughts go through your head as you witness the total absence of posters on your new
creation, Kitco 2. It's a shame since I imagine a great deal of work went into the creation of this alternate site.

Yet, the absence of posters here represents the inherent problem facing gold investors. They swarm together like
bees in a hive, afraid to strike out independently and question the "rules and regs" of the hive.

Despite continued bandwidth problems on K-1 ( Yes, I have lurked on occasion, despite my fabulous 404 ) , all
the gold investors continue to post exclusively on that forum. You would think that, when bandwidth is slowing
things down there, the K-1 posters would gravitate toward K-2. It makes sense, doesn't it?

Yet, K-2 remains a graveyard...that's because K-1 has evolved into some exclusive, hallowed club sanctioned and
blessed by the gold shorts who fashion the goldbug view on "the way things really work" in the metals markets.

Only the dregs of goldbugism would consider posting on K-2. Only the non-technicians, the non-chartists, the
anti-Merrill Lynchers, the anti-Armstrongs, the anti-Arnolds, the anti-O'Neils, anti-anti-gold'ers, the anti-status
quo types, would consider posting on K-2.

Moreover, for goldbugs to post on K-2 would imply a departure from a rut.
Goldbugs do not like to leave their ruts.

What ruts do goldbugs find themselves in?

Well, if you're a gold producer, then you buy into the rut of leasing gold, even though in the long run, it is an
endorsement of a gold short's dream. Gold leasing in aggregate destroys the POG.

All gold leasing should end summarily. The miners as a collective should get together and refuse to follow the
Munk road to ruin. Then watch the POG explode.

If you're a gold investor, your rut is as follows: upon any announcements of central bank gold sales, you are
supposed to panic and dump all your gold holdings...even before you've investigated who purchased those gold
sales. You must conveniently ignore the fact that the majority of CB gold sales are intra-bank and do not affect the
total volume of gold hitting the market.

When Merrill Lynch explains that a mere 15% gold support of the EURO is a major disappointment, then you
must panic and dump all your gold holdings. Do NOT question why! Do NOT wonder exactly who is
disappointed! Ted Arnold maybe? Armstrong maybe? Certainly, not any rational gold investor. Again, you must
dump your gold and immediately buy a load of YAHOO!

When any self-anointed "Trust Me" gold expert explains that European gold sales will continue until 1999, then
you must say, "Yowsah, Massa, whatever you say, suh. Now I guess I be goin to sells all my gold now, Massa,
thas wha i be doin, OK?" Again, you must never question where those gold sales ( if they truly exist ) are directed
and must NEVER suppose that the odds favor they are intra-bank sales.

So, in a nutshell, I advocate that goldbugs get out of their collective ruts.

Start now...in small ways. Try K-2 for example. It won't harm you.
There's a ton of writing space available here. It only takes a mere few seconds to check out both forums. Certainly
it is advantageous to post here when K-1 is stalledout.

According to Bart, the rules on K-2 are much more lax. More allowance for profanity and irreverence and
iconoclasm.

OK, Bart. How's that? When are you sending me my commission?

Thanks.

F*

I spent many years in the Bush fighting
communist scum in South africa I watched many
good buddys die.....i watched as the world
was feed the commie crap of freedom for
blacks....now I watch as the media never
reports how the brain trust is fleeing SA,why
don't you talk about how white women are
raped by a gang of thugs while thier husbands
and children watch before they are shot,what about the German Nun
in Durban last week who was blown away by a
17 year old with an AK 47 while she sat in
her car....or the more than 600 white farmers
who were shot raped since Mandela took power
thats a lot more than Sharpville .....don't
talk to me about SA....if some of you here
are so blind thats your fault but,this crap
JD is pushing really gets my goat....if you want me to post the facts just let me know

I spent many years in the Bush fighting
communist scum in South africa I watched many
good buddys die.....i watched as the world
was feed the commie crap of freedom for
blacks....now I watch as the media never
reports how the brain trust is fleeing SA,why
don't you talk about how white women are
raped by a gang of thugs while thier husbands
and children watch before they are shot,what about the German Nun
in Durban last week who was blown away by a
17 year old with an AK 47 while she sat in
her car....or the more than 600 white farmers
who were shot raped since Mandela took power
thats a lot more than Sharpville .....don't
talk to me about SA....if some of you here
are so blind thats your fault but,this crap
JD is pushing really gets my goat....if you want me to post the facts just let me know

robnoel ..

However I think you act like a jerk
.. But it doesnt bother me much one
way or the other ..

.. its really YOUR problem

I've got a date with a swimming pool and some suntan lotion....

However, my first experience with K-2 was a great one. No fights...no racial slurs...no profanity...no tantrums...no gold shorting sheriffs cut and pasting my comments out of context. I LOVE IT!

Bart, thanks for providing such a great forum.

Thanks.

F*

Q: What do you call a drug ring in Dallas?
A: A huddle.
Q: Four Dallas Cowboys in a car. Who's driving?
A: The Police
Q; Why can't wide receiver Michael Irvin get into a huddle on the field anymore?
A: It's a parole violation to associate with known felons.

The Chicago Bears reportedly are trying to sign Michael Irvin.
They got rid of the FRIG so now they want a COKE MACHINE

Did you hear the Dallas Cowboys adopted a new HONOR SYSTEM ?
Yes, your HONOR, no your HONOR

Did you hear who's the new Cowboys defensive coordinator?
Johnny Cochran.
Q: How do the Dallas Cowboys spend their first week at training camp?
A: Studying the Miranda Rights.

DEAR DOW INVESTORS:


We wish to thank you for your past support and hope that you will
appreciate the urgent need to continue this support. As you are all
aware, we are now but a few points away from DOW 9000. It is absolutely
imperative that you continue your contributions to the
cause...otherwise, we may not be able to sustain our vertical momentum,
in which case all our past efforts will have been for naught. Please do
not pay any attention to our detractors out there who have
established an agenda to undermine our noble efforts. When these
detractors state that there are no future corporate profits out there to
sustain the Dow at its current levels, well, we do not wish to dignify
such slander with a response.

Although we respect that many of you do not have huge amounts of
remaining cash reserves, owing to second mortgages you have taken on
your homes and cash advances upon your credit cards, nevertheless, we
urge you to consider the extreme importance of the DOW 9000 in your
life. Every dollar, every dime, every nickel counts...so please give
just a little more. Your contributions will make some anxious investment
broker's life just a little bit better.

Although many of you prefer to use your last few bits of
available cash for other items, such as food, clothing and shelter,
nevertheless, we urge you to forego these luxuries for the sake of the
DOW 9000.

We respect that there are many other telethons out there that
solicit monies from you each and every day. Naturally, it is impossible
to give something to each and every one. However, we believe that
solicitations on behalf of muscular dystrophy, fatherless boys,
arthritis, seniors' food programs, Alzheimers, deprived inner city
children, AIDS, and a host of other community charities are not quite as
important at this time in America's history as our fight to reach the
DOW 9000.

As you know, we have a big party planned once we cross DOW 9000.
Our associate fund-raiser, CNBC, has cases of champagne and thousands of
party hats, horns, balloons, and a big cake waiting in the wings...and
while you are tooting your horns and munching upon your cake, CNBC has
THREE WHOLE HOURS of never-before-seen footage celebrating the entire
momentous occasion. It would be nothing less than a crime if these
various celebratory items were left unused merely to collect dust.

Once again, we ask you to look into your hearts and find a little
something for the DOW 9000. You know it will be worth the pain.

Very Truly,


THE DOW 9000 TELETHON.

...it must be subconscious or something.

I meant to write, golden eagle!

Thanks.

F*

golden eagle. golden eagle.

Thanks.

F*

No matter what I type, KITCO is formatted to print GOLDEN EAGLE.

Is this something between you and Bart?

Thanks.

F*

Thanks.

F*

.

We need to talk. The "Oops pads" thing won't work except around tall buildings. And I need those people for my new food company. With Y2K food shortages, there's a great opportunity to make a bundle. "Solyent Green". What do you think? It's not catfish, but hey, it'll do in a pinch. We'll make it taste like McD's. And this "unisex three piece suits, socks, ties and shirts, plus a casual golfing blazer, shirt and slacks made of Kevlar and Nomex" thing...it's been done. They were called leisure suits. Hey, this is great. It's gonna be the 70's all over again, but with real doom and real gloom.

Oh yeah, where did all these fussy broads come from today? Fuss, fuss. Argue, argue.

for Robnoel ..
If you think you have sources that
I dont have then you are mistaken ..

You say "..i watched as the world
was feed the commie crap of freedom for
blacks...."

I dont regard that statement as RACIST .. just ..
stupid ..

I believe in freedom for everybody .. I dont care
what colour they are .. If you think that makes me a
communist then I think you are a second class idiot.

There is crime in RSA ...it is almost predominately
Black .. as it is in the US .. But you cant throw all
Blacks in jail because they seem to be more predisposed
to anti social behavior than Whites.. in the
opinion of some Whites ( myself included ) .
I believe in reinstatement of Capital punishment would
do a lot to reduce crime here .. I would actually like
public beheadings as a deterrent to crime ..
BUT just because you fought a bush war and LOST cuts
no ice with me whatsoever .. The South African
Nats sold out Rhodesia just as actively as England and
the US ( where you now reside ) .. I also have
no more sympathy with the Boer propagandists who
write your favorite paper than I do the left wing
dorks that write for the Guardian or the New York
times ..
I get tired of this .. but your judgemental crap is
annoying .. You lost a war then went to live in one
of the countries that sold you out .. I dont see
anything particularly grand about that .. and
whatever happened to you has nothing to do with ME.
.. So I am suggesting to you in as nice a way as I can
to stuff off..

Ive just got off the phone after talking to Ted for about half an hour. He has finished the basement but is waiting for a plumber and electrician to make it out to the island before he can move in to the basement.

It is very difficult to get anything done there, but, if you know Ted, youll understand why he has got a reputation on the island for being a madman. Hes building this house on his own. Noone does that over there. Working a 70 hour week, sunrise to sunset, Teds building his paradise. Ok. so hes still living in a dank old caravan/camper at the moment. The one left in a forest for 12 years. It had a hole in the roof that let in rain and so it became a home for numerous animals before Ted hosed it out and moved in.
Life is pretty harsh for him, the greatest hardship is the lack of hot water. His shower is a hose tied to a tree. But now he has a satellite dish and can follow the markets and crash in front of TV at the endo of a days labour.

When I phoned he was erecting the 8x8x8 cedar posts that sit on top of the basement that are the main support structures. Hes been putting these up himself. Later this week his fisherman/bulldozer-driving friend will drop by and help with the 8x16x16 cedar posts that sit on top these pillars and that will be the basic frame. The rest of the house will be cedar shingles, large picture windows to make the most of the clear ( recall Ted chopped all the trees down to get himself a view ) uninterrupted view across the beach and a few miles of channels to the islands that dot the coast. He has found enough granite in the old granite quarries around about to build a granite fireplace and chimney, and knows a mason who will help. Problem is, that hes running out of money, it is expensive to get supplies to the island, tradesmen and craftsmen want higher wages to go out there.

Ted says that his view is better than the Rothschilds that own a place on the island too.

He misses kitco, and is surprised he misses it so much.


try phoning him again. This time, let the phone ring a couple of times. Hang up and ring again, hell answer.

StudioR,
you gave Ted the phone number of a friend of yours who has a restaurant nearby, Ted thinks the number is wrong. Can you try again to get Ted that phone number?

He hopes that the plumber and electrician will be on the island in the next couple of weeks, so he can move into his basement. The basement too has glass sliding doors overlooking this view, only 70 to the stoney beach. ( i mean stoney, not stony ) He doesnt think hell be able to get back to kitco until December, he doesnt want to set up his computer until he has finished the inside of the house, after the oak, or was it spruce ? floor has been laid.

Ted sends his regards to all the folk at kitco, he sure does miss tuning in to the best durned GOLD site on the net.

Much of the M-3 money finds its way overseas as "safe haven" money, thus it does not compete here for goods and services. Also, M-3 money that is used for stock purchases does not inflate grocery prices, only stock prices. For example, this week Barron's reports that $97.5 billion in home equity loans were created since last week. It is difficult to know where it landed. That portion that went into stocks, either directly for new stock purchases or to cover for previous stock purchases does, not inflate the general economy.

At the same time we hear that personal bankruptcies are at record highs. This is in spite of boom times. Those bankruptcy losses are eventually deducted from M-3.

I used to keep weekly records, especially on the monetary base. As the communist world collapsed and U.S. currency was substituted for everyday use, the numbers became worthless. Even the Fed admits it has no idea how much currency is now circulating overseas.

Captain Limberger of the dreaded
cheesebombs and Robnoel of the
many sources..

How much I got out of our little
exchange ..
For example .. I have gained a
much better understanding of the
term "lunatic fringe".

Goodnight salty

The F thingie left us with the most hateful, racist,
And disturbed behavior ever witnessed on this site.
People hereabouts have not forgotten that.
The man had little credibility to begin with
By his own hand he has proven
He now has zero

F spot is As Before

A nut

OK

'night crusty

limey
where's the F spot?

Here in the Ohio River Valley, the Shawnee Indians, inhabiting southern Ohio & Indiana when the settlers came, were renowned for their silver jewelry. Legend has it that they had obtained the silver from the Spanish during the time they lived in Florida. They were an offshoot of the Seminoles who migrated to the Ohio River country in the first half of the 1700's and were welcomed by the native Hurons & Wyandots who wished to have a buffer between them and the whites they knew would one day come down the river. But there exist several accounts, from captive settlers, of silver being mined right in Ohio. A few told of having to go down into the ground to mine ore and that from this, the Shawnee fashioned their jewelry. This lost Shawnee silver mine existed along either Caesar's Creek, in Clinton County, or Clifton Gorge, in Greene County. To this day it has not been found, but several historians, including Alan Eckhardt, author of "A Sorrow in Our Heart" ( biography of the great Shawnee war chief, Tecumseh ) insist that such a mine, or mines, existed. Anybody up for a hike tomorrow?

Salud Maximus to YA! for the teddO report!!! I've got a cool dude ( ol' band member ) who lives not more than a few miles from teddO's new castle. I shall get the correct number to da' main man! ( knowing full well that teddO will someday soon reciprocate with a lucky number for us to share ) ....this is a fine wish indeed......A LARGE gulp and puff ( cough ) to YA! and teddO!!

Couldn't get back sooner -- domestic chores, ya know. . .

Got hold of some charts going back to the 70s and 80s for the four PMs. What strikes me as interesting -- and what vronsky talked about a little today -- is the similarity between the first half of '82 and the first half of '98.

Gold -- By summer 1982 gold had declined from its famous 850 top ( in 1980 ) to 305. ( I doubt we know as much about discouragement as the guys who bought in '80 and '81 at five-, six-, seven hundred or more, and held. Perhaps those are the guys who now so fervently disparage gold. ) By September '82, however, gold had shot up to the mid- to high-400s, and by that momentum, topped 500 in early '83.

Silver -- ( I've posted more about silver on K1. ) The '82 to '98 comparison is even more striking here. In Feb. '82 silver topped 8.00, but by mid-June dipped to a low of 4.85. It shot up some in July '82, retreated briefly, then by September was over nine dollars. Silver finished the year around 11.20.

Platinum -- Was still establishing its longer uptrend line. Plat began 1982 at 400, dipped to its low in June at 260, rose a little in July, then retreated, but in September shot back over 400. ( Plat's trendline, though more exaggerated in '82, is, as are gold's and silver's, largely similar to their trendlines of '98 to date ) .

Palladium -- Still ( in '98 ) establishing its long-term uptrend line, therefore extremely volatile. But in summer '82 palladium hovered near its bottom of 45; by the end of '82 it had climbed to 95. ( Percentage-wise... well, do the math. )

What's exciting, I think, is how the price paths of not just one or two, but ( at least ) THREE metals coincide to date with their paths in a same prior year, to date -- especially since that prior year finished so positively. History never repeats itself exactly, of course. But . . .

2nd quarter earnings are shaping up to be a disaster. "The fundamentals now are beginning to make a significant difference." Imagine that. There is nothing left to support this stock market. Put your money into something real.
==============================================
From: http://www.bloomberg.com/@@XMtkFgcA9OFe*Lfr/bbn/topww2.html>http://www.bloomberg.com/@@XMtkFgcA9OFe*Lfr/bbn/topww2.html
==============================================
U.S. Stock Rally Will Likely Slow as Earnings Reduce Investor Confidence

Corporate Profits Slow Wall Street's Rally: U.S. Stocks Outlook

New York, July 31 ( Bloomberg ) -- U.S. stocks may have trouble reaching records in coming days as disappointing corporate profits batter investor confidence. "The quality of earnings has deteriorated," said Chris Davis of Davis Selected Advisers, which oversees $21 billion. "With the slowdown in Asia, there's a lot coming home to roost."

Second-quarter earnings growth, which was expected to be better than the first quarter's, was probably worse, investors say. And the Commerce Department said today that the U.S. economy slowed to an annual growth rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter from 5.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The government said a drop in exports kept the gross domestic product low, an effect of an Asian recession that is also hurting U.S. investors.

Just last week, Hewlett-Packard Co., one of Davis' top holdings, warned that third-quarter profit won't meet analysts' expectations -- mostly because it is struggling with slowing sales in Asia.

With 421, or 84 percent, of the S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter earnings, operating profits probably rose 2.9 percent from the year-earlier quarter, according to First Call Corp. The number includes estimates for the companies that haven't reported yet, as well as earnings for those that have.

If 2.9 percent holds, second-quarter profit growth will be the slowest since the 1991 recession, a distinction now held by the first quarter of this year with its 3.8 percent increase.

For the second quarter, "I thought they'd bring it back up to 3.8, but we're getting lower and lower here," said Chuck Hill, First Call's director of research.

Dimming Outlook

Looking ahead, the earnings picture is worsening, too. "The third-quarter numbers in the last month have been coming down more than the normal trimming," Hill said. "It's clearly spilled over into the third quarter."

Analysts now expect the companies in the S&P 500 to post operating earnings growth of 7.1 percent for 1998, First Call said. That's down from 18.5 percent in 1995, 8.4 percent in 1996 and 11 percent in 1997.

The dimming outlook for profits has stocks stuck in a rut. For the month of July, major stock indexes were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.7 percent and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index up 0.3 percent.

This week, the Dow rose just 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1 percent. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks fell 2.5 percent. "The fundamentals now are beginning to make a significant difference," said Robert Doll, director of equity investments for OppenheimerFunds Inc., which manages almost $50 billion in stocks. "Unless the earnings outlook can get better, the stock market will have a hard time moving higher."

Doll is so concerned about the outlook for stocks that his $2.3 billion Oppenheimer Growth Fund is 38 percent cash.

( more )

 Copyright 1998, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.

The following is a pretty interesting article and prediction for the paper markets. http://my.excite.com/news/r/980801/07/business-stocks
I am still kind of miffed as to why gold funds seem to go down in sympathy with the normal paper stock but does not rise markedly when paper floats up. I guess the short answer is that gold is sick and its temperature is barely registering at this time. It appears in reading todays comments that we disgrunted goldsters in our frustration are turning on each other. Be nice.

StudioR
Can't believe you know Beeb. Of course, I only know of him through Mark Singers' excellent account "Funny Money"

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980801/business_m_1.html

Kind of like visiting a guy in jail. You can go in. You can leave. But he has to stay there. . .

There is a gold mine right here in Connecticut. During the 1600's its principal product was sheets of mica used for windows but there was also gold, produced as a by-product. Not on any map ( except mine ) and I can take you right to it.

Old Gold: You missed it. ... Not surprising, most probably did. The Hepper done predicted .... yes you guessed it ...... 325 by, if memory serves, 8/11. ...... The hedge was: No year given. .... We will watch this together. Yes?

Mr. Cohen. What does the D. stand for? David? Daud? Dimmy? Doug?

At one stage we were looking at gold as an investment. We were advised by one of the largest American investment banks ( forgive me for not naming them, I don't want to have my @ss sued to h*ll and back ) as follows:

As far as physical is concerned:
-looking for an average gold price of $285 per oz for next year
-potential Swiss gold sales are a high probability
-the physical demand picture remains very poor
-the threat of a weakening yen to a Chinese Yuan devaluation would cause a huge drop in POG as a lot of gold would come out of China
-central bank attitudes and forward producer continue to depress gold
-the loss of its monetary and economic qualities have turned gold into just another commodity
-the overall downward trend remains intact with the lows of $278 soon to be taken out

As far as futures and options are concerned:
- an "outside weekly reversal pattern" has been observed giving potential rise for futures to test the recent highs seen this past spring.
- this will be temporary and a good forward selling opportunity

So: a potential opportunity for the speculators, but not such a great outlook for the longer term.

No abuse please, I am only reporting what has been told to me. Personally, nothing would please me more than for all you gold bugs to make a bundle. I made some money on my first batch of gold calls during the last spike and gave it all back in my second batch of gold calls and dow puts in July. No matter..am still richer for it by way of knowledge.

Thanks d:o )

Yes, truth is sometimes stranger than a lie. The real irony of Beep is that he is a member of a conservative, successful banking family whose ownership control "spans" many southwestern banking empires. I have known him for years before Penn Square. He shuffled the "fall" onto the back of Monk.
Monk Patterson used to send me pencil drawings of naked women while he was unfortunately incarcerated...his art showed great emotion and desire, but very little taste. this I admired.

Gogold said 325 by November 11, 1998. That was late afternoon Wed. 7/29/98.

You might be right about the hedge. 1998 was merely implied.

Any chance of posting your current Market Trends here on Kitco? It's still not up at the Monex site. Thank you.

Jonesy/Earl: Thanks for giving us Heps prediction! He does seem to like that THREE TWO FIVE. I'm certainly rootin for him on this one. With a selling climax to new lows looming, a rebound back to $325 would trigger a hell of a rally in gold stocks.

Totfeasor: Interesting article! Especially noteworthy is that the bearish Don Days was one of Wall Street's leading bulls for years. Just as bullish as Abbey Cohen. If he is talking about a possible 40% drop, the bulls are in big, big trouble.

StudioR
I have in front of me a newspaper clipping from the local paper, NZ Herald dated 3 September 1988 that I put inside the book "Funny Money", I tend to do this sort of thing, many of my books have clippings in them, and notes scrawled over the back pages, marginalia and foxed pages.

The clipping says that "Patterson, a former director of the defunt Penn Square Bank of Oklahoma City, was sentended to two years' jail for his role in the $US 1.1 billion fraud." John Lylte got 3 1/2 years but there is no mention of Beep.

Are you seeing no impact on POG by the euro? or Y2K?

We now have what we would call "full technical confirmation" of a bear
market. Note:

The only glue holding the market together is the favorable monetary climate.
But that could quickly change if Asia stabilizes and Japan starts to
recovery. Note that the Nikkei has bucked Wall Street's trend and closed
higher in each of the past 4 sessions.

NOTE ON JAPAN: This looks like a good position. If Japan can continue to
shake off Wall Street's woes for another week, then the Nikkei could quickly
be up to 18-20,000 by the 4th quarter.

NOTE ON GOLD: We DON'T like the deflationary signals coming from weakness in
the gold stocks. This position, while still a losing one, is as much an
insurance policy as a contrarian investment. With the labor market getting
still tighter, money supply growth at double-digit levels, and Greenspan's
comments last week, this is still a prudent holding ( IF less than 8% of
one's portfolio ) .

Goldfever: I, of course, vote yes on a final selling climax in the very near future.

he was a failed businessman, who late in middle age, got lucky with a AU mine. However, I feel that he made a huge mistake with the Bre-x fiasco & the shareholders will pay dearly. I also think that he made a big mistake in selling Clark Oil Refining & investing the proceeds in real estate, very late in the cycle.

That was Don Hays, not Don Days

Yes.....John L. ( Continental Illinois ) lent the Murchison companies approximately $180. million...which was due and payable when Continental collapsed....we didn't have it.....sold the Cowboys ( $85. mil ) to pay it down...we consequently went under when they did. I was there from beginning to end. Those were exciting days in Chicago with da' boys........... ( sigh ) ( puke ) I knew we were in trouble when the sheriff stopped by my office to measure my desk.

Jonesy: Thanks for the correction of Hepper's due date. Heaven forgive me for miscasting his prediction. Something the great man would never do himself. ....... 11/11 it is ... and ever shall be.

Aurator/Studio Is/EB: Please email me ( I seem to have misplaced my address book ) . I would like to pass along my phone number to Teddo The Errant One.

Jonesy: The opinion I have here is that there is substantial Y2k testing being done by the bank in question and by others. They are confident that the issue, although potentially costly for a few months, will not be of a magnitude sufficient to move POG.

As for the Euro, there is an awareness that there will be limited sterilisation due to the need for ECB permission before gold can be sold. But the 10 to 15% backing of gold for the Euro will mean that national central banks have a good deal of gold to spare. Although countries such as Germany, France and Italy are unlikely to engage in selling, countries like Holland, Spain and other small countries are likely to engage in periodic sales. As for those countries not selling, it is extremely likely that they will become lenders to the market!!

Now if you ask me about Japanese earthquakes..that is a different matter altogether. But I am not sure I have a close enough relationship with God to invest on the basis of geology!!!!!

Sharefin: hiya. I'm back in London on the 8th. May I drop you a line?

Thanks d:o )

http://www.sfgate.com:80/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1998/07/27/MN66877.DTL

http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/y2k/TWB19980722S0011
Farmers Get Plowed Under By Y2K Problem
'We are especially blind about the possible problems that will hit the global food supply in 2000.'

Agriculture Committee Chairman Richard Lugar ( R-Ind. ) said he feared in the days leading up to Jan. 1, 2000, consumers will panic and empty grocery shelves.

Yardeni, who said there has been little study of the Y2K impact on the food supply compared with, for example, the energy and financial sectors, said people find their own way to react when presented with critical information.

"I want to alarm people so they won't continue to think there isn't any problem and wake up in December 1999 and panic," Yardeni said. "I'm alarmed at the potential for the scenario of having to stockpile, but certainly wouldn't tell anyone to do that now."

The situation could resemble "Russia in the 1980s," Simpson said, with long lines and little food on store shelves. "Look at what happens with hurricanes in Florida and snowstorms in Alabama."

...very relaxing and refreshing.

Jonesy, you are a modest man who possesses tremendous insight.

Let me quote you:

"Gold -- By summer 1982 gold had declined from its famous 850 top ( in 1980 ) to 305. ( I doubt we know as much about discouragement as the guys who bought in '80 and '81 at five-, six-, seven hundred or more, and held. Perhaps those are the guys who now so fervently disparage gold. ) By September '82, however, gold had shot up to the mid- to high-400s, and by that momentum, topped 500 in early '83."
------------------------------------------
Yes, Armstrong, Arnold, Merrill Lynch, et al are most likely victims of precious metal purchases at the top. Purely conjecture...but why else the vehement, incessant arguments against gold and silver ( although admittedly, I think it is Armstrong who now thinks gold has bottomed ) .

In all likelihood, the same constant antipathy toward gold from RJ and others may stem from buying at the top way back when...or maybe his parents were victims of some gold scam.

Who knows, huh?

Thanks.

F*

http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=376846606&CONTEXT=902014223.1803092009&hitnum=6

...but are YOU John Galt? I'd like to read more. Where does your writing end and John Galt's begin.

I intend no disrespect, but I'm a bit confused. Refernces and URL's would be appreciated.


Thanks

...SWP!

...although if you are searching for my identity, then I would love to learn of your identity as well.

I remember some kids back in my junior high who hated this particular group of Jewish kids...they referred to them as "jujubes."

Is your handle related to some kind of antagonism toward Jews?

Just wondering.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.irish-times.com:80/irish-times/paper/1998/0730/fin9.html

Jonesy, I look forward to hearing from various posters at some point or another.

Otherwise, I hope to petition Bart and have this forum renamed, "FARFEL's DISCUSSION ON GOLD."

( Hey, Bart, I'm trying, I really am ) .

Thanks.

F*

Sharefin: A great line from your 19:32: ""If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast". ....... Much wisdom there, I fear.

the violence in Ireland all these years. uh huh...

We mustn't underestimate the speed in which perceived-to-be-static conditions and objects can move away from the centre of comfort.

Studs

Umm, you mentioned it that book? Sounds like bad juju all round. Your
" I knew we were in trouble when the sheriff stopped by my office to measure my desk." got itself a place in aurator's bon mot file..

Tom

A must read, looks like the party is over.

"As the U.S. economy starts to show a few cracks, the market will lose the one big driving force, which has been the flight to safety of money from
overseas," he said.

"The Canadian currency crisis could prove to be a problem for the U.S. markets because Canada is America's biggest trading partner," Hays said.

The collapse of Asian economies has cut deeply into Canadian exports of commodities such as pulp and metals, sparking a headlong slide in the Canadian dollar. Now, Canada faces the risk of a crisis of confidence in its currency, which could spread to the United States.
http://my.excite.com/news/r/980801/07/business-stocks

I didn't expect the problem to come in from Canada, I thought the expected China devaluation in the fourth qtr. was going to undo what was left.

The third and fourth quarter are going to be really something to watch.

I just pray that Gold will survive and become the destination for "the flight to safty".

HighRise

...my contrived rant was "over the top." I simply got tired of being an incessant target of abuse and felt my little impression of RJ going beserk would resonate with K-1. I must have fooled some people. I know that HenryD thought I was RJ pretending to be "Farfel." ( For those who doubt the rant was contrived, then rest assured I do not offer "Thank You's" at the end of genuine explosions of anger ) .

In any case, the exercise succeeded aptly since, during my occasional lurking on K-1 the past month, I noticed the great Farfel "gangbang" had subsided.

Naturally, James I do not know your wife and do not know you. I imagine you are a likeable fellow, your wife most pleasant, and outside the context of Kitco I imagine we might get along fabulously.

You make very smart points in this paragraph:

Date: Sat Aug 01 1998 19:12
James ( Steve in TO@I never implied that Munk is a dummy. I simply stated that ) ID#252150:
he was a failed businessman, who late in middle age, got lucky with a AU mine. However, I feel that he made a huge mistake with the Bre-x fiasco & the shareholders will pay dearly. I also think that he made a big mistake in selling Clark Oil Refining & investing the proceeds in real estate, very late in the cycle.

I fear that gold investors will continue to pay for the derelictions of Barrick and Munk ( withholding info concernng BRE-X fraud plus complete hedging of gold production at 410 in '96 ) . I subscribe to various posters who endorse a policy of selling Barrick and buying other senior NON-HEDGED gold producers. In this fashion, Barrick suffers although the XAU does NOT. Moreover, in this manner, gold investors cast their vote against hedging which, contrary to various gold shorters' assertions, has done remarkable damage to the POG ( Yes, Virginia, there are other ways to obtain mine financing BESIDES hedging, there truly are! ) .

My greatest fear is that, in the not too distant future, Barrick will be slammed badly ( an award of $1 billion or better ) in the Bre-X lawsuit and create overly negative effects on the entire XAU. Therefore, it truly is in the interests of gold investors to IMMEDIATELY vote their dollars out of Barrick and into other senior gold producers. This way, the XAU does not suffer ( In fact, I wonder to what extent the XAU's recent travails are the result of inordinate fears concerning the Barrick lawsuit infecting other senior producers' performances ) .

Thanks.

F*

...as the colloquialism goes, "You're Da Man!"

Thanks.

F*

I suppose it applies to ATM's, KFC's, and McDonalds etc. as well.

Yardini thinks Asia is toast - soon to be burnt toast.

Seems like nothing is the same as before.

Even gold - how low can it go???

Investing isn't investing anymore.
It's called speculating.
And it seems many ( even a few Kitcoites ) are speculating.
Speculating on the future.

Speculating = guessing.
Guessing whether golds gonna go up or down.

Who's right - who's wrong???
Who cares, who speculates.

Are 7-11s related to 747's
I wouldn't care to be near either come Y2k.

Over the past few months, friends and strangers I treat to my bearish sentiments about the stock market have gone from contemptuous dismissal to polite listening to eager requests for advice. Nearly everyone I speak to now expects either a significant correction ( 10% - 20% in a week ) or a crash ( 20% - 30% over a few days ) to occur before or during Oct. A minority are selling out of stocks or mutual funds and taking the tax hit, but most are taking no action at all, are waiting for a sign to convince them of what they already believe will happen before they sell. They will wait until the correction begins. Some think they have the guts to tough it out, but few of them have the foresight to imagine how they will feel and react when the $200,000 total on their Fidelity mutual funds account drops to $180,000 in one day, to $145,000 the next. That's only a 20% drop. My guess is that they do not know their own hearts and that they will panic-sell.

Then they will have some cash. Where will they put it? Some will wait on the sidelines and buy back in to the suckers' rally. Some will buy treasuries. Almost none will buy gold because it's not even on their radar as an investment alternative. Gold will not be purchased by a large number of people until we see a general loss of confidence in the financial markets. They must go from seeing themselves as agressive players in the current mass-psychology game of confidence to defensive players in a whole new mass-psychology game of fear and loathing. This can and has happened quickly before. But timing and outcome are unpredictable.

This much is for sure: The experiment is failing. Something completely new and unprecidented is going to happen. All will conclude that unfettered world capitalism, with unlimited debt and free-floating currencies, didn't work. For a sense of how it will feel, I turn to the artist not the economist. Read Dorris Lessing's "Memoirs of a Survivor," the best novel ever written that gives the sense of how a modern society may behave when the machine breaks down and no one seems to know how to fix it.

-EJ

The Leprechauns are going to get their eire up. Watch out. I knew there would be some gold in Ireland and Scotland ( the eastward direction of the Atlantic spreading center ) That quartz vein is workable- .586 oz/ton. It could lead to a pocket! Where did you think the Leprechauns got there gold?

Not that I know of....I ( we ) fortunately avoided the Beep/Monk cesspool...I declined their numerous invitations to borrow from them. There is much more to be known about this bizarre moment...to date, America's closest call to complete financial destruction, IMO.
Five fellows, myself included, attempted to take over Holly Sugar right before the collapse....three of the five's money came from Penn Square...we, collectively dropped about $35 million on this bad idea. I'm convinced this caused the liquidity problem...totally missed by the authors, siedman, etc. My money came for the First Nat'l....which later also went under. Unknown to my counterparts, I was as short Holly ( in N.Y. ) as I was long in Dallas. Missed the bullet.......the others didn't. deads.

As your posting says:

Openheimer Growth Fund is already 38% cash.

This did not happen overnight, nor is this the only fund that has gone to a high cash position. Fund managers and insiders have been getting their personal funds out of equities for months now, and even their clients money out and into cash for weeks now. The market downturn is catching nobody by surprise.

Except perhaps Joe sixpack, but Joe gives all his 401k money to his fund managers to take care of and doesn't have a clue.

This market may go down, probably will go down, big time but it's not going to do it in some widely publicised crash day. Its going to be a long agonizing ride down the rapids, no quick tumble over Niagra falls.

PNC Bank Power Failure
I went to the 3535 Market St. ( Philadelphia, PA ) branch of PNC Bank
like I do every Friday to deposit my check by ATM ( I never liked the
idea of direct deposit, and they started charging teller fees a year
ago ) . When I got there the power was out in the entire building. Their
computers and ATMs weren't running. I managed to get in and fill out a
deposit slip, etc., and then they started turning customers away at the
door. I asked the customer service representative where the nearest ATM
that accepts deposits is, and then I asked her where the bank was as far
as Year 2000 compliance. I was hoping for something along the lines of
"I'm sorry, the FDIC doesn't allow us to disclose that information."
What I got was a stare, then "you're asking me about something 2 years
from now?" I tried without success to tell her that it was a big
management problem, etc. I ended with "nobody knows?" and she sort of
shook her head and laughed. The higher manager standing nearby did not
offer any assistance.
Given that I could have gone to another branch, it was only a minor
inconvenience for today, and I understand that maybe customer service
reps aren't informed about all the details, but the fact that the
manager did not offer to field the question while the representative
stood there clueless was not reassuring. I plan on calling there Monday
and persisting until I get someone higher up to answer my question. In
the meantime, it's no longer a question of if I take my money out of the
banks, but when.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not if, but when???
Not why, but when???

Problems will start to appear next year, six months to a year early. Many are tied to projections and payments in the pror year.

I find it interesting that I received two form letters last week from two separate financial institutions stating their Y2K status. One will be compliant this year and the other basically said they are working on it.

HighRise

I have done before. Hope it was nothing worse.

Tom

The last two paragraphs ( suggestion to sell immediately Barrick shares and buy other NON-hedged senior producers ) are mine, NOT JAMES.

Thanks.

F*

Tom

I vote yes for gold. For equities, this is the beginning of the bear not the end. An equities selling climax is at the end of the bear. Any resemblance to this before the end is a suckers rally, a bull trap. Good luck on the extent of the upmove for gold- I'll probably be right behind you.

Tom

No it's not too early to rule inflation dead. In fact the guests are only now beginning to arrive at the party.

P=MV/Q

Average price level equals the product of money supply times monetary velocity divided by gross national product. Well, Q is starting to go down pretty fast now while money supply is still high. Depending on what happens to velocity it's still anybody's ball game.

Hepper ain't gonna make it, not this year.

Tom

Why won't the herd react as one???
History shows massive reactions when the herd turns.

In these days of high speed decissions/transactions.
Why won't the herd bolt the door all together???

Just as the herd panics over McDonalds latest trinkets,
I believe they will react over a finished market.

To blithly think all will happen as one thinks,
Is the same myopia as these investors ( duh ) sustain.
Thinking stocks only go one way - up.

I personally believe the masses will react - and swiftly,
Once their reality has been changed.
Once they perceive that stocks do go down.
They will bolt - short, sharp and suddenly.

History shows us that this is normal.
I expect a nomal crash,
But of significant proportions.
Big enough to confound us all.

We will watch this together - yes???

I'll hang out on when possible.

Tom

It's almost a year since Mr Peutz posted here at kitco his theories about eclipses and market tops and bottoms, and a little less since I posted my refutation of the theory and data he used.

Just because I'm an iconoclast, and just because I try to keep an open mind, I thought I'd just have a look at my table of the eclipses we are gonna see before I get to Alderney for the Last Total Solar Eclipse of the Millenium on Aug 11 99.

We got a nice little cluster ( do you merkans spell it clustre?--Clustre's Last Stand? ) of eclipses in the next 5-6 weeks:

Two Partial eclipses of the Moon ( times are GMT )
Aug 8 at 02:25 and
Sep 6 at 11.10

and one annular eclipse of the sun
Aug 22 at 02;06


any data miners wanna make something of it?

it this way...TED is just doing Y2K in reverse...the boy has style...

...it explains my 404. I had planned to expose my "new voice" at some point. However, before I got the chance, Bart 404'd me, rightfully so.
As you are well aware, TYoung, I have assumed many voices on this forum since I first posted, from evangelistic preacher to rhyming poet to whatever. Remember, I have worked in a creative field most of my life. So if you believe that my past behavior is "nutty," well, then I guess there are a helluva lot of nuts out there, from Jack Nicholson to Roamin' Polanski.

Do I lack credibility? Well, I submit that, on an intellectual forum such as this one, a person's thoughts should be of greater import than their occupation or method of delivery. Essentially, what is the person saying? I have heard words of genius come from maids.

Also, I do NOT drink nor do drugs...at least nothing more intense than regular doses of aspirin to keep my blood thin and preclude a heart attack. In my younger years, I was not so virtuous. But, today, my body DEMANDS that I stay straight or pay the price.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.reagan.com/hotTopics.main/document
-7.9.1997.1.html

That's the herd! You got it

that episode on K-1 was beyond the line.

Frames here or not?

Tom

wanderers within regions of brilliantly constructed lunacisities.....coincidently, I, too, exist as a certain lunatic. disable optics of their tendency to focus.

Tom

The story about the herd turning reminds me about a fellow who was in a sailboat when it was hit by lightning. He and 3 other men were crowded in the cabin of a little 23 foot boat waiting out a rainstorm. One of the others had said, "God must be very angry," and he had replied "f**k God" then the lightning hit the mast. He said that all four of them jumped out the hatch the same time.

Oops, nearly forgot, John Galt URL: http://lglwww.epfl.ch/Team/MK/who_is.html

is honoring your vacinity with his presence this weekend. Lock up the
young women, and be sure to put a cover on the "oops pads", as WJC may
get the wrong idea and test for "stain resistance" from high altitude.

To all on Long Island and Wall Street, LOOK OUT BELOW!

Salutations ( namaste? ) and a sip of Las Trancas to ya.

F spot is begging for redemption
All contrived now says the loon
Sane minds know better
Sane minds know what he is

Again he brings up race
Why is this so important to this sad lad
Racist thoughts occupy small minds
I would not want a fellow such as this
Standing behind me

If Bart offers Kitco redemption to this fester
This place has zero worth

Righty

0

...I will NOT change my handle as a means of gaining entry to K-1.

It is not so important to me. As it turns out, I had a very busy July so my excommunication from K-1 was quite beneficial. Now I have a fairly free week here. Again, I think my timing is good as I believe August will be an extremely interesting month. However, in another two weeks, I will probably disappear again ( maybe sooner ) as I will begin work on a pretty big project.

As for gold cheerleading....I will agree with some of my K-1 detractors that I went overboard in that regard. At a certain point, a person does get boring. In any case, I don't think the metal needs any more cheerleading. The case for ownership is easily made today ( it used to be so much harder to get peoples' attention just one year ago ) . Today, people are very nervous and they are desperately looking for alternatives to YAHOO! at 200 times earnings.

Whenever I talk about gold with investor friends, they no longer turn off. They are usually completely riveted. More importantly, they rush out and buy the stuff now.

Again, I think the basketball held underwater analogy is correct. The metal is ready to spring upward at any moment. It just needs the right trigger. CB's can offer lease rates at next to zero for the benefit of short speculators...but at these POG levels, you require genetic intellectual deficiencies to go short.

Incidentally, do not fall for the gold short line that a high lease rate always acompanies a metal in shortage ( such as platinum ) . Platinum is NOT a global financial reserve whose rapid price increase might threaten the global financial status quo. The low lease rates on gold are imperative in order to ensure continual gold shorting. Gold shorting must continue to avoid a financial paper meltdown.

Thanks.

F*

Cant do it. It has to go through the lawyers first. I try very hard to keep separate my personal opinion, which I post here, and reporting the market, which I write over there.

OK

Looks pretty bad.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/indext.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Only green is 10yr. bond.

HighRise

The old gold is going to $250-$240is in vogue again. People do not realize the shorts need gold to rise between FND on each contract. Someday the shorts will have to cover and gold will rise so high that the stops will get blown through and huge sums lost.

The downside risk now is minimal. Gold is not just a commodity...2000 years of history is not changed in a few short years. Yes?

Tom

you realize you cannot hear and see at the same time. studio.r

No redemption

You are not worthy

both know will happen happens. Then you can at least post once.

Tom

Tom

Sharefin" 7-11 equals 747? Nah. They are small neighborhood, high margin, convenience stores. Milk, bread, cigs. That sort of thing. ..... Also commonly referred to as "Stop and Robs".

I suppose so...but it did succeed in various ways. Implied lunacy has a great way of scaring people. Scaring people can get them to shut down their attacks.

I simply tired of the same group of people addressing me in ad hominem fashion all the time rather than addressing my ideas.

Occasionally lurking this past month, I noticed a much more careful tone when these various detractors addressed my existence.

Finally, I was trying to make this point ( and would have addressed it that night except for my 404 ) : just as a person can be one thing one day and something dramatically different the next, so too can gold reincarnate itself on the spin of a dime. There is no immutable law of nature that says gold must trade in a dull downtrend forever. Tomorrow, some existential event could come along and send it soaring like an eagle. It could rise so dramatically that you would never recognize the old yellow metal from its former identity. Just ask the citizens of Korea and Thailand!

Thanks.

F*

I would not be a member of any club
That would have F spot as a member
Nor would some I know

Goodbye

OK

As a democratic socialist I agree with your outrage, but remember this is a reaction to injustice. It doesnt make it right but stopping the injustice and economic and other violence and terrorism against the working people and the poor and their children will result in less problems for the greedy ruling corpoRATist elite.

...land of the banished lunatics.

You should fit in quite nicely here.

Thanks.

F*

at least for a trial run.

RJ...you got NO HEART.

Tom

Its all yours

Roll in it

Tom

Months lost in this postless maze and I've finally found human beings! You are from planet earth, aren't you? --AG

...however, I do not feel any imperative to return to K-1.

I am quite content to post here.

Bart is trying to make both K-1 and K-2 work. So, hopefully, different people will move back and forth between both forums, thereby ensuring less crowding of available bandwidth.

Thanks.

F*

...Kitco is addictive. We storm out of here...we're banished...but we always come back.

Too many interesting personalities ( RJ included ) ...too many amazing intellects...too much amazing info....

We're addicts and we're hooked.

Thanks.

F*

Tom

...AUgust is just beginning.

Thanks.

F*

Crash: Glad you're coming around to my way of thinking. Orderly, no.

By your own admission you drink when you post. I remember three times you apologized the next morning to all of us because you drank too much and were embarrassed about what you wrote the night before. Lay off RJ. farfel is the "loon". The last month was very nice on kitco and now this guy has to come back and wreck it.

I am but a puppet being jerked by the strings of God.

August 8th - open home.
September 5th - auction day

What influence and why???

Bullish or bearish???

A world of feces. We know that. Joe out there is very optimistic. For me. I'm in cash.

as you wish...SIR

Tom

Bon Jour mon chums on da Kitco. Pierre him he dranks two much shin
an den he lands on a coma for2 munth! Wen i wakes I'm not to know my
names, so dey calls me Rumpled. I'm say dats ok buy me.

I'm see Gusto here, mais wears all de udders-Swamp Boy-Red Neek-
Grizz? Dats all fors now, I'm see nurse Ratchett coming!

HAPPY GOLDEN AND SILVERS
SALUT MON CHUMS
PIERRE.

I wonder if late October will be that great bying opportunity. Or a sucker trap.Surely the former. One must always question ones own logic from time to time. RJ is actually Golden Cheesehead. You think?

sharefin
Better a marionette than a martinet, yes?

try again,I have a problem with long URL addresses

http://www.reagan.com/HotTopics.main/document-7.9.1997.1.html

This herd will move as one, but not as a sudden stampede spooked by a lightening flash on the high plains. This one will be a shuffling of lemmings like refugees fleeing the front in war torn Europe.

Will be like the ride at Six Flags, that I won't ride again. The Free--fall. Like an elevator gone awry.Vertigo first. Kim Novac's boosoms. Sorry I got sidetracked.

I'm not seeing a PM selling climax such as many others have spoken of. I chart the three metals -- gold, silver, platinum ( not palladium ) -- weighted, as if they were a single metal. As of the middle of last month, right before the JY intervention, the three metals hit their lowest low in the past two years. ( Could be much longer since they've been this low; I just haven't keystroked the data going back before 1996. ) The three metals bottomed June 15 and are now rising to their 100-day moving average, which, I believe, marks resistance. That's where silver, leading the charge out of the pit, reversed July 24. Looks like we've got a dip ahead of us, but hardly the catastrophic house-sized sinkhole seen by some others. In other words, I think we've already *had* the selling climax.

ROR: As usual, you have good handle on the source of irritation. Now you must work on the proper medicine.

If government and really big banking was/is the primary source of the affliction; it does not necessarily follow that more - but better - will effect a cure. ..... Hell, you know as well as the rest of us that the bankers and politicians ( the suits and big cigars ) will all - suddenly - become Democratic Socialists or whatever else they need to become, in order to continue ..... business as usual.

C'mon ROR, adopt a little cynicism. It's good for the soul and besides, you can never be as cynical as those ( in govt ) that you admire.

Red Neek, wie Sie sind. Es gewesen eine lange Zeit, da wir sprachen. Sind Sie Stille loving alle Frauen in Alaska? Ich denke, dab Gold nicht viel mehr fallt, bevor es anfangt, oben wieder zu gehen. Ich hoffe so. Gesprach zu Ihnen bald.

HAPPY GOLDEN AND SILVERS
PIERRE.

Lemmings run to the sea in a mad dash, like Joe sixpack. I didn't know they scurried from the war--torn front. I will, however give you the benefit of the doubt as a fellow Kitcoite.

but I can't find any of her stuff at the stores ( she's Georgia native )

I like all of your ideas re: crash, buying the large dip etc...
but this October we will be in the middle of elections, Lewinsky fallout,
increasing Y2K awareness, Asian flu, dollar falling?, lots of uncertainty.

There may be a better bottom later, but I'm not smart enuff to say when.

- Regards

Where's EB to make the Communist front complete tonight?

Orderly? No. Pretty? No. Quick and merciful? No. This one will be a steadily worsening toothache. The decaying of rotted flesh. No romantic flash of news making excitement.

This won't be the quick dip of '87, over almost before anuone knew it as there.

This won't be the equally quick drop of '29 that also was fairly painless.

This will be the descent into hell of '30 and '31, while not as well known or heralded as it's '29 harbringer was the one where the vast majority of Joe sixpacks lost their money hoping '29 was just a dip. Lost their money and sank into darkness, the darkness of the great depression.

You are thinking maybe a quick dramatic crash that will bring the cavalry rushing to the rescue?

No this will be week after week of waiting for the turn that never comes. Waiting for things to get better as each day brings more bad news.

Of seeing everything fall. Everything.

Then comes the millenium.

First you will hear the shuffling of tiny footsteps. Then the trampling of a mighty herd.

I either look at it as a profit opportunity, or a chance to make the 5% I am making now.

May be the best profit opportunity in sight.

If PM-related stuff can be discussed there, it might, unlike before, become viable -- different threads, different contours . . . just different. ( Not everything needs to be judged in good/bad terms. )

Right now it's just another way to lose wealth.

Gollum: I know you're way ahead of me on this one but, it's likely that the ultimate lemmings will turn out to be the "thirty something" fund managers who have assumed the "grave responsibility" for John and Jane's 401 k funds. They are garnering cash now, and lickin' their collective chops in anticipation of the next 20% rise. Hell, their job depends on it and many are chartered to be fully invested.

Markets are not configured that millions will escape to live a life of luxury on their winnings.

The denouement must include a mechanism for separating the gullible from their cash. It cannot be any other way. And so, what we are discussing here is; how will that be done and on what time table? It will take some time to accomplish because, after all, we are talking about a sizeable chunk of change. Yes?

Good SP day traders have enriched themselves handsomely in the past 9 months. Now, the really good ones will become as Creosus. IMO.

Tom

just glad the wind is blowin east...the stench the Coward Erects puts off is fouling an otherwise decent part of the USA...I will say this...all them rich dirtbags I see in the golf carts kissin his ass will never see me spend a time in their direction for the rest of almighty eternity...nuff said...

You may be right; this could be a LONG SLOW downturn. It does look like the pros are slowly getting out while Joe Six-pack has been brainwashed into staying in "for the long term." The main unknown is what the stupid foreigners will do. The "stupid foreigners" are the ones who are still pouring their money into our over valued market. I believe they have been the group that has pushed our market to ridiculous P/E ratios this year. Will they all of the sudden realize their stupidity and pull out? Time will tell.

Here is another thought. I keep hearing the question, where will the money go if it comes out of the stock market? Tell me if I am wrong, but I believe there is NO MONEY in the stock market. It is not like a big bank account. When you buy stock, you pay someone else for his stock. Now you have the stock, and he has your money. There is no money in the market. This is what makes it possible for a market to crash. The market is based on the perception of value; the only real value is the dividends that are paid out. Come to think of it, most currencies are the same way; people may perceive them as having value, but there is nothing real behind them. Maybe that is why they are susceptible to collapse.

Low mutual fund cash levels. 3rd quarter profits, and scared foreign money will precipitate a crash of gargantuan proportions.

not dime...but both are correct...

I will buy in completely at 5700.

There is a certain mystique to October because two of the more well known market crashes happened then, but if one looks at a calander of the months that bull markets ended in there is no favorite.

One of the reasons that we won't see a spectacular crash in October is that by October ther won't be anything left to crash.

Think about it. We have at least eight weeks just to get to the beginning of October. If the DOW goes down three or four hundred points a week we will be down to the 6000 level by just the beginning of October. The average stock not in the DOW has been eroding already since about the end of March.

The October crashes of note happened more like in the third or fourth week of October.

A pin prick will not burst this balloon. Too much air has already been let out. A deflating balloon does not burst.

I mean with 100% speculative money. Buy Coca Cola for sure.
The remainder in Invesco European Fund.

I'm glad you brought that up. It does sound a lot like the long gold bear market we have been through, except this tome the guys in the equity houses get all the fun. Perhaps it will herald the start of an unprecedentatedly long bull market on gold.

A great e.mail...thank you. I must respond when I have regained more disciplined thought. Right now, I must concentrate on the future...and modern man's apparent need to predict it. We must have lived in the future. And we knew before we lived?

Tom

Gollum @21:51: Sounds a lot like the goldbugs lament. Post Feb 96. T'would be good if others were more familiar with it as well. .... Up close and personal. As they say.

If you take October lightly, you do so at your own folly. Devils month. Also when 3rd quarter profits are released.

what is the point of bart saying he will crack down on offensive posters and now he lets the worst of all time back? the law has no muscle. i should go back to look for the post bart made about cleaning things up letting farfel back on is exactly what he said he wouldnt do. i remember he said we would loose good posters but they would be replaced by others. Well, meet the new boss, same as the old boss. he also says he was just trying to mock rj he only wishing he could. everybody here knows rj never sank that low he was too smart for farfel he beat him with words. watching rj expose farfel for what he is was one of the truest and most entertaining things I have ever seen on this site.

There goes gold. There goes the rest of the market.

5700 may look good now, but give it another year, and see what unfolds. I may be crazy, but I think there is a real possibility of DOW 2000 in the year 2000. Y2K could be one heck of a wild card.

Blooper: "Where's EB ( 'n Earl ) to make the Communist front complete tonight?"

I let a lot of crap go by because I'm basically a mellow person full of love for my fellow man 'n all. I would like to reamain that way. The above is a mindless thread and a source of irritation. Please cease and desist.

But not now, you will just ride it down.

I respect your 2000 in 2000. But I will buy at 5700. November, December, January are positive, and a great time for intervention by AG.

gollum and you other guys, you made me zero last time i posted.

The gullible wer seperated from their cash when they traded it for stock. The obly question left is whether anyone will give it back.

If I buy a car I know my money is spent. I have a car instead. Perhaps after driving the car for a while I can get some of money back.

Maybe it was a fixer upper, and I have actually improved the car enough I can hope to get even more money back.

For some reason, when Joe Sixpack buys stock, he thinks he still has his money. He doesn't, he instead owns part of the desks, eauipment and assets of some company. Perhaps the company will do well. Or perhaps the fad of being part owner of that company will bring people to want that stock even more than it's worth. Perhaps not.

Once the fund managers have saved their own butts, they don't care what happens to the clients money. All they care about is whether they are beating the other fund managers or not.

A fund manager and his client were out walking in the jungle one day when they spotted a hungry tiger. The fund manager sat down and began changeing his boots for a pair of tennis shoes. His client said,"What are you doing? There is no way you will be able to outrun that thing.".
To which the FM replied, "I don't have to run faster than the tiger. I only have to run faster than you.".

in January Fred. You gotta be brave to make a buck. Oversold will apply late October.

If you take August, and September lightly it will be too late to worry about October, November and December.

Do you know how Halloween = Christmas?

If Earl, EB and ROR are communists....kindly include me as one of their dear comrades.

FYI. Friday morning Jimmy Rogers predicted stagflation is on the horizon. That is the best of all worlds for PMs.

Still believe we will NOT make new lows in POG or POS and that the next significant move is up. It will be easy to tell that this is the "big one" because it will be accompanied with a sharp sell off in the dollar and a similar decline in financial markets.

Studio Is: "Disciplined"? Isn't that something to do with B&D and De Sade? Gawd, but it give me goose bumps when you talk dirty like that. ..... BTW, after 5 or 6 hours I finally pulled the plug on that data file upload. .... After I saw GC come around for the 3rd time. Like the Bloop, I'm a little slow on the uptake. ..... But like a house afire when I make a decision. ...."Disciplined"? Maybe you mean my father's interpretation. Uh. Uh. Not good.

I agree that September will be rough too, but thitd quarter profits are paramount here Gollum. Paramount.

I agree that September will be rough too, but thitd quarter profits are paramount here Gollum. Paramount.

Will just be real scary. 8400--8700.

Gollum @22:22: LOL! Well stated. It's all too easy to, erroneously, conclude that a broker's statement is equal to money in the pocket. .... This final chapter will be a fascinating thing to watch. ....... Less interesting will be the charges of fraud and subsequent intercession of the political trust. That will be banal. .....but inevitable.

Fred
Amen to your
"The market is based on the perception of value; the only real value is the dividends that are paid out."

I recall back in 86 trying to explain dividend yield to an investor who asked me about value. His rebuff? "I don't care about Dividends at 4.5%pa I want capital appreciation at 25%pa." Sounds like you're getting the same phenomena now.

If your bank account is half the size of your ego, can I borrow so money?

You are right. There is no money in the stock market.

The foreigners are indeed an unknown, but I don't feel like they will be getting their own economy together very fast. So if they decided to pull their money out of the US, where woukd they put it? Into a Japanese bank?
Would you put YOUR money into a Japanese bank?

Speaking of banks. In the great German hyperinflation of around 1919 or so the people who had their savings in banks lost everything, but the ones who had theirs in stocks only lost about 75%. Of course the ones with real assets did the best.

You owe Earl an apology. I would like to see it.
Don't be so dense ( like gold ) . How can you call him a Commie?- Maybe right wing libertarian.

I will ride goldstocks down to the bottom of the empty pool.
Rather like the girl in Atlantic City, New Jersey that used to have a diving horse act.
Mount up soldiers. 32 feet per second squared. Off the cliff.
Yeeeeeaaaaaaaahhhhhhh ......... splat

It will probably start August 21 at 8315 and go to August 28 at 8700.

You writin this all down..... By the way, I did have the utmost respect for the Dallas organization in the 60's. They stood for something good. Danny Reeves ( Staubauch's backup ) is the coach here in Atlanta ( perrineal losers ) .

yes, we ride. G&P to YA! I wish I could apologize for blooper.

It means gold will be a buy. Ya gotta know the difference. Concernong Earl, if he loves government we disagree, however Earl is fine. I hope to dissagree with many more Kitcoites, and to agree with even more. I have the right to speak my feeble mind.

You may apologize for me Studio, but it has no credence. Do you love government? I tolerate it, and not very well.

Is calling Earl, EB and ROR communists representative of your understanding of debate or disagreement?

Alas my ego is even smaller than my prick.

I may be completely wrong. It doesn't matter. I have been wrong before and I shall be again. I just calls em as I sees em.

You don't seem to realize that this is a very BIG bubble and if it deflates suddenly in a crash, it won't be nearly as bad as what I think will happen.

Most of the funds and big time monet has gone to high cash positions. They are waiting for a crash. They WANT a crash. They are hedged from here until next Februaury the 31st with puts. If there is a crash you will see the biggest buying spree in history. You think you will get in at the bottom? Ha!

That's what they thought after the end of October in '29. The little guys. The moms and pops.

I don't think they will get their crash. Time will run out. Their hedges will expire. The lights will go out.

Thinks I'm a Commie for trying to be nice to EB on one occasion. I did not ask him to opoligize. I still think he is right on most times. So there.. Mellow out. Imight call Earl a capatilist, he might want an apology for that.

Algie
welcome back. You aint no cipher.

Bloopa
Earl a commie? ha ha. ROFL. You should pay better attention. He's a librarian, I mean a libran, I mean a libertine, I mean a libertarian. Aww heck, he can look after his self.

de_Sade~aur@tor__Its_whipping~~time~again__Yee__Haa~~~~~

Please afford me one more question. What do you expect to gain for yourself here at kitco?

Sharefin: One for you from Avid chat:

"I like the ad above here about getting 1200 financial analysts for $9.95..they got the price right...LOL"

The little people got out at the bottom. Or is your memory of 1929 bad.

True. How serious it gets is really going to be a matter of how many banks and brokers go under. A lot of these gunslingers live WAY out on the edge. Your derivative didn't really hedge your position if the broker goes belly up and the bank officers are all in Argentina buying new villas.

Seriously, I think the water's gettin' pretty deep. Old Gold's last goldstock crash is at hand.
Highrise posted the indices for nearly everything. XAU led the drop by a wide margin.
Either this is the New Paradigm", and there is no place to run- no place to hide, ( apologies to Martha Reese ) , or a few thousand years of recorded human silliness will repeat itself, and some will flee to a real money.
-Water's gettin deeper as we speak. My horse can swim.
Get Gold.

Gold _has_ been a bad investment over the last 20 years, perhaps. But that ain't very "mathematical." Why don't you calculate gold's ROR from '67-present? About the same as stocks ( ! ) , better than bonds.

Better yet, why don't you calculate gold's ROR for every period in the 19th century? i.e. 1900-1901, 1900-1902, ..., 1900-1998, 1901-1902, 1901-1903, ..., 1997-1998. This would allow you to make the following "mathematical" statement:

The average buy-and-hold investment in gold in the 19th century has been X%.

I'll think you'll find that it ain't too shabby.

What your "mathematics" may telling us is that right now we are in a "local" bottom. Is this not the best time to buy?

sam__a.

Some semblance of understanding. If those guys are mad at me I will gladly say I'm sorry, but I meant no malice, as we jaw back and forth.
Although I play rough, I am willing to be understanding in the end. I also expect that from others.

You have more guts than I do. I would not touch this market over the next 1.5 years with a 2000 foot pole. ( Except for gold stocks. )

To: aurator
What a relief. Thank Goodness I am not the only one who has unsuccessfully tried to explain to people why the only real value of a stock is the dividends it eventually pays out. ( Ignoring stock buy backs, mergers, and acquisitions, of course. )

To: Gollum
I had not really thought about it, but my guess is that foreign money will start heading into U.S. bonds. The return after inflation is pretty good considering they are safe ( for now ) . Hopefully we will not see any hyperinflation for a while.

Bloop: "I have the right to speak my feeble mind." ....... and so you shall. Without surcease. Though a developed sense of personal dignity would counsel that some things be done in private.

You have motr guts than I do if youre investing in gold. I gotta wait till 99.

My statement was intemperate, and quite stupid. I meant to say liberal.

notsam
Just realised I am late offering you my congratulations for winning the first "Auracious Award" at Toronto the other night.

Hooorah! Well done!

Maybe you can tell me what you believe, so I will know and wont make unthoughtful statements.

When the stock market goes, it won't bottom for 6 months to a year. Then it'll be time to buy...

No, sir. The little people wer wiped out at the bottom in '32 and '33. Go back and look at the history of the '29 crash and the greatest sucker rally of them all right after.

In 1929 the value of stocks had risen so high, hundreds of dollars a share, that the little people didn't feel like they could afford to buy in. In the initial drop in October it was the high flyers who lost a bunch.

Suddenly prices were down where the little guy thought he had a chance. Everyone thought it would go back up. This was their chance The greatest amount of money that was lost in the markets was lost AFTER October '29.

The big guys got out. They sold the little people every piece of paper they could find. Then they went home.

1. Learn from others
2. Share mutual respect
3. Make new friends
4. Test my thoughts
5. Give and receive encouragement.

How many of you make a living at it?

Shorts vs Longs - Capitalists vs Social Democrats

Gollum: Undoubtedly, there will be some of that but I would assume that the bulk of the money laundering , er, handling is done by publicly traded entities. So, short of plain old fashioned embezzlement, transfer of John and Jane's funds might be difficult. Then again, with the system as corrupt as it is, it would not be a surprise to learn that the transfer mechanism is already in place.

Given the FDIC and failed savings institutions, I think that one is already obvious. Simply that it will take a sizeable amount of time in order for the F DICK to process all accounts and render restitution. 5 years maybe? In the meantime, inflation continues apace and the 100k John and Jane started with is now worth 30k. Maybe. .... "Gosh, we're really sorry about that but we must follow established procedure". Yes?

intemperate: not temperate or moderate; excessive, especially in the use of alcoholic beverages, heritage dictionary.

"I like the ad above here about getting 1200 financial analysts for $9.95..they got the price right...LOL"

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now that's funny.

Being tightened up. I am not a veteran here, but I do listen to the veterans, and will try to do better.

I prefer to make an honest living....

Tom

Which is what?

THE US government has sent more of Mr. and Mrs. JQ publics money overseas than any institution. And the BEST part is if the JQ's don't give the dirtbags in DC the payola they get audited, arrested or as the grand prize...they get SHOT IN THEIR OWN HOMES...I jest luuuuuuuuuuv it, what a country...

Oh well...Make your bed...Lay in it...Say your prayers...and trust God. Go Gold!

For those interested in the weekly Firstcap commentary:
http://www.firstcap.com/smt/sm.html

"THIS IS A BEAR MARKET."

"From the standpoint of fundamentals; P/E ratios for the general market are historically high, P/E ratios for the market leaders are just silly, earnings expectations are down, we have not yet seen the full impact of the Asian economic meltdown and our domestic economy is softening."

There is that word again ... fundamentals. I thought fundamentals did not matter.

To: blooper
Come to think of it, gold stocks ARE pretty risky. Ahh, it's only 20%. I do not think I could stand the boredom of being COMPLETELY safe.

Tom

me too. If the veterans didn't think we were worth knowin'...they probably wouldn't even acknowledge us. Salud! G&P to YA!

manufacturing

Viscous? As in "thick and sticky"? Yeah, I guess you're right, GoldnBoy, it's viscous out here tonight.

Earl/All
Now I hear that all your bank deposits have a federal Guarantee up to, what is it $100k?

How does a librarian/libertine live with this socialist safety-cushion? Or is it rather more apparent than real? Hyperbole rather than fact?

How often has this Personal gurantee been tested by banks that have gone upside-down?

curious, I'm viscously curious.

Looks like I'm going to have to get "a real job", as I wont speculate in this market. Not till late October. I tradeable rally is all that's left till late Oct.Really grim. My crystal ball looks so bad, I'm scared to look into it.

out of the soylent green franchise concept, unless you can insure it is only fed to brokers, bankers, politicians, lawyers and people with fake car or portable phones...if you can do that I will pull the Oops Pad from the production line...

Bloop: I know you have this chart committed to memory but many others do not. I put it up only in the interest of sound discussion. A notion probably foreign to you but essential nonetheless.

The chart covers the crash of '29 and as anyone, but you, can plainly see, the dipsters in late '29 and early '30 were somewhat disappointed. Perhaps even goldbugged. Yes?

The Snake eats Pigs and it takes Time to Digest.

You're right...I don't know much about the food business. But I've always had a weakness for the tangibles.

I thinkm you may be right. I need to get a "real job". Could starve from here to October.

bad worm?

T1: Yes but, so far it only involves those unable to garner any public sympathy/empathy?. Ne'er do wells who think only of themselves and never of the public good. The antithesis of ROR. ....... I have it on good authority that those things, to which you allude, could never happen to upstanding citizens as attend these solemn proceedings. No?

From the Devil's Dictionary. "Selfish: One who is more concerned with himself, than he is with me."

Thanks for the chart. I stand corrected as to my premature assessment on market timing...

Thanks very much. This was thoughtful and gracious of you. ( The prize is a copy Mackay's "Madness of Crowds" - beside me now - to be forwarded to the next winner. ) I should say that the judges were partial to volume, not content.

I have a twist on this idea: At the next Kitco dinner, the previous winner must contribute his own selected "must-read"; thereby building "the pot." Over a period, we should be able to assemble quite the floating library.

Once again, thanks.

sam__A ( not sam! )

You didn't listen. Look at the chart. Notice the rally in NOV., Dec,Jan.
I said buylate October, sell late January. It worked ii 29. It will work this year.

517 days until 12/31/1999. All bubbles are becoming aware of the dangers. Each day, each market participant wonders what everyone else will do because that is the essence of the markets. Predicting the direction of the pack and getting there first brings many rewards. Completely misreading the market causes personal destruction. Lead or follow but don't fall behind.

Will economics classes in the year 2020 look back to the Year 2000 Computer Crash as yet one more anomalous market shock to jar confidence, thereby causing a market collapse? Protocols will be put in place to make sure this never happens again. Do market crashes ever really happen the same way twice as human achievement marches on?

Who could ever predict how human sociological responses to varying sets of circumstances would bring about profound changes. Farming, iron swords, water power, steam engines, assembly line, computerization, and globalization are the focal points of concentrated social changes. In addition, war has had a very strong correlation of incidence with each of these focal points.

Fifty years is not a long time in history to base any conclusions about changed behavior towards global conflict.

The important thing is how everyone else reacts to various changes, both abroad and domestic, such as shortages, falling markets, devaluing currencies, credit contractions, and rising costs.

Good chart. It points out very well the long agonizing decline from the beginning of early '30 untill the bottom two years later that was the REAL killer. The "crash" in '29 was a wimp.

The real problems came when the banks started going down....

http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=376882372&CONTEXT=902014223.1803092009&hitnum=46

Almost as spooky as trying to forcast the coming bear...

Wow, according to farfel and others manufacturing doesn't exist in USA anymore.
I am bored tonight, calculating toolpaths for CNC machines.
..Got to get that mold done.
It is fun working eighty hours per week, it's the ninety-five hours that gets to you.
Then, the govt. is first in line to sieze most of it, so that they can give a modicum of credence to their ugly fiat money.
I don't tolerate parasites in my dog, so why should we work for l'ultimo parasite, the leviathan gommint.
MOZEL, PLEASE CHECK IN. Thanks

Responding to your question, as I have said before, I stand on the shoulders of giants. What you ask for will be the product of many acting from conviction, not one publishing in safety. The Supreme Court has held that the marks of conviction are
willing to risk death
willing to risk imprisonment
willing to risk rejection by friends and family
for starters.
Anything else is a mere preference.

Call me when you get there. The theory behaves like gravity. Works great in a vacuum.

Look at the 29 chart. Crash in October, rally thru feb. 99. What about this chart do you not understand?

Now take a look at 1987. What similarities do you see. To the T. Wake up.

Yours is a particularly dark and moody muse tonight, and I agree with every grim word. On your point about the misperception of stocks as real assets, I made this point with a particularly stubborn old friend the other night, one of few that I have been unable to influence to get out of the market. I had to take a dramatic approach.

At a coin show a month or so ago a man was selling old stock certificates, hundreds of them, for a few cents each. The names of once great corporations were printed beautifully on paper in a way to imitate the appearance of money. I bought a few as props for my friend.

Last week saw him. I placed one American stock certificate, a Mexican 10,000 peso note, and a gold coin together. All three were dated around the same time, 1983. He handled all three and, because they each had the appearence of value and I did not tell him otherwise, he assumed they we each valuable. I explained that at one time they all had more or less the same value. Then I ripped up the stock certificate and the note. He looked confused and smiled uncomfortably. Then I tossed him the coin and said, "Get it?"

He did and now he's in cash. And I feel better about him and his wife and kids.

Perception of value is just that, perception. Stocks are beginning to be perceived as having less value than the prices many have paid for them. Depending on many factors, that perception may devalue stocks to half or less of the current prices paid. Later, gold will be perceived as having more value than the current prices paid for it. How much it goes up depends on how widely this idea is accepted.

-EJ

We may not agree, but we will come late October, one way or the other.
It has been fun. Earl, if I hurt your feelings, I apologize. Have a good night you guys ( Gollum ) .

There's a few of us left. You should know that living in Racine. There's still mom&pop tool & die's, specialty printing, injection molding, etc. It ain't easy, but it's there if you hustle. As far as the government goes, render unto Caesar what is Caesar's. By the way, how is life there at the mouth of the Root River?

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 03:22

farfel ( Thoughts... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The great thing about the fall of the Rand is, not so much the issue of its effects on the price of

gold, but rather the ultimate impoverishment of dickheads like PissPee who, when economic

hardship gets really intense down there, will probably have their assets and properties

expropriated by the failing SA government. Deservedly so...for being abject idiots!

Speaking of expropriation, since Moronator is such a fawning disciple of Herr-ess Witte and her

happy band of Royal Oak Robbers ( since, in his mind, she represents the apotheosis of pure

capitalism...and he admires scoundrels who have the balls "to change the rules" ) , then he too

should be delighted when his "new" government comes along someday and "changes the rules,"

expropriating all his ( putatively ) hard-earned assets. Bound to happen since, he too, is living in

the midst of a collapsing economy.

And what about James...great admirer of intellect...or should I say, imbibing... prone to heavy

indulgences in the old boozola when his wife is away ( who can blame her? ) , happily liquoring

himself up into a state of abject incoherence.

What does it all mean?

It means, back off f**kheads, or I will rip your blathering nonsense into shreds ( and you along with

it ) in a manner that will make my friend RJ seem the epitome of cool composure.

Oh, thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 12:54

farfel ( @RETIRED DESERTER and PUSSBOYS... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

RETIRED DESERTER...nice to see you join in the gang bang...befitting for a wimp like you who

professes to stand up for Jews but then runs and kisses the behind of JANES, a patently obvious

Jew hater.

PUSSBOYS...contributing your usual three lines of ghettoese mumbo jumbo. Go crawl back

under your rock, crackhead!

F*'s Report...

I don't care where gold goes...it's one big ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I like the strong action on the DOW & NASDAQ....makes America even STRONGER so all the

rest of the countries of the world can rot and sink into the toilet they deserve.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 14:23

farfel ( @LGiBBerish...who's contributed nothing to this forum??? ) ID#340302:

Take a look in the mirror, coin dealer man! Pushing your worthless little silver coins while kissing

ass at Loral?? How well do you sharpen pencils for Mr. Schwartz? I hear you run and fetch a

mean glass of water, LGiBBerish.

Give me a break!

I imagine you must be at least 400 pounds of hot, foul wind.

When are they going to toss you out on your big, fat ass?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 14:29

farfel ( @JerkTurkeyF**head.... I AM OUT OF GOLD COMPLETELY!! YES!!!! ) ID#340302:

Why would I own that miserable worthless crap anymore?

And have to continue posting on this forum...and listening to pedantic nihilists and preachifying

bores?

Enough already.

The DOW & the NASDAQ...that's where the party is. The higher they go, the better off

America...and the rest of the world can take a dump in a pig slop.

Screw gold.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 14:46

farfel ( @LGiBBerish...my RJ impression? ) ID#340302:

I don't know what you're talking about?

RJ's OK by me.

Are you casting aspersions against your hero and Lord, RJ? God knows, you licked his butt often

enough.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 15:27

farfel ( @PUSSBOYS...oh, you're getting there.... ) ID#340302:

...try writing just one or two more lines...and hey, you might just pass for literate.

Now go back and smoke some more crack.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 16:29

farfel ( @RETIRED DESERTER...and you CAN KISS MY ASS... ) ID#340302:

...I DID NOT COME ON THIS FORUM, YOU LITTLE PUKEHEAD, TO BE A TARGET OF

CONSTANT INCESSANT ABUSE. AND YOU LITTLE SH*T HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE

BIGGEST ABUSERS.

NOW IF IT'S IN MY POWER, I WILL HUNT YOUR SENILE ASS DOWN EVERY TIME YOU

POST CRAP AGAINST ME. OR UNTIL BART REMOVES ME. WHICH HE CAN DO

WHENEVER THE HELL HE FEELS LIKE.

I DON"T CARE IF YOU FOUGHT IN DICKSVILLE, DICKHEAD, IT DOES NOT PROVE YOUR

MANHOOD, IT JUST PROVES YOUR WRETCHED STUPIDITY AS FAR AS I AM

CONCERNED.

OK, you got it?

Thanks

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 19:38

farfel ( @SNOWBIRD...here's a little hint... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

...call off all your mangy mutt buddies who keep attacking F* on a personal basis.

He CAN bite back ( far worse than anything seen here so far...you haven't even begun to see MY

COPY and PASTE yet ) .

Helpful hints: the name is NOT farfetched, fartful, farfelburger, farfelonious, etc.

More Helpful hints: don't mention or propagate theories about a "Jew Boys Club" on this forum. I

have a lot of friends who are Jews. We will get the Jewish Defence League to find out who you (

really ) are and deal with you.

Yet More Helpful Hints: don't kick people ( like goldbugs ) when they are down on a daily basis.

Yet Even More Helpful Hints: lay off the fascist all-American love it or leave it! attitudes, extolling

the virtues of Nirvana for America and the greater virtues of drinking piss for the rest of the world.

It infuriates ( some ) Americans.

Yet Even More and More Helpful Hints: end the great Farfel gangbang NOW!

Unlike Mr. Puetz, I will not disappear but will retaliate with even fuller force.

Finally, apologize, just as I have done in the past to all on this forum. A real apology ( not an

apology serving as merely a means to attack another poster a la LGiBBerish's deceitful tactics ) .

Until such apology is received I will post in the neo-fascist fashion which was so popularized by

RotJerk, LGiBBerish, PissPee, Moronator, Retired Deserter, Pussboys, etc. At least, until Bart

removes me.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 19:41

farfel ( @CROSSBITCH...who the hell are you? ) ID#340302:

You don't even know me, dick-for-brains?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 19:44

farfel ( @PUSSBOYS...ohmiGOd...back again? ) ID#340302:

You ran out of crack already.

I'm sorry. I don't have any to send you.

Thanks.

F

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 19:46

farfel ( @CROSSBITCH...you're probably JANES in drag... ) ID#340302:

..right?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 19:50

farfel ( @CROSSBITCH...so you "respect" many of the posters here... ) ID#340302:

...but you obviously don't respect me, addressing me as "Fasteriska."

So guess what, I don't respect you. Ergo, you can stick your head up your bunghole!

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 20:00

farfel ( @PUSSBOYS....oh, just go back to your ghetto... ) ID#340302:

...you'll be so much happier, moron. Don't forget your food stamps.

Thanks.

F*.

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 20:12

farfel ( @SHELLER...re: Liberace or LGiBBerish or whatever he calls himself. ) ID#340302:

Now you're safe back home, having spent a full day running and fetching water for Mr. Schwartz.

Must be real tired after moving that fat ass of yours around Loral all day.

Time to get out all your grubby silver coins and count em all, right?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 20:18

farfel ( @PUSSBOYS...so you're saying all Jews smell?? ) ID#340302:

Why don't you and Janes get together and burn down a synagogue?

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 20:10

Poorboys ( That Skunk Smell Is Always Around ) ID#227168:

Farhead If you are a Jew then you must have been casterated, maybe they just cut off the wrong

parts? When

you do return to Kitco under another alias your smell will give you away --Pew

I just hope the Jewish Defence League finds out where you live, you little rotter, and then they

should castrate your crackhead ass.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Mon Jun 29 1998 20:29

farfel ( @BULLY BEEF...I expect the plug to be pulled...... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

...but I shall survive.

Tired of hearing about LGiBBerish's 400% return on stocks, the same boring story told over and

over again.

Tired of Pussboys three sentence incoherent posts dissing gold and various forum members, the

same old, same old.

Tired of PissPee lauding his brainy son, leaving us all to wonder how the son got all the smarts

and father was left with less than zero.

Tired of the usual Kitco Nazis constant name-calling, browbeating anybody who believes in the

yellow metals value.

The Nazis have won...not just the gold market but the entire country. False prosperity while the

Nazis raise the volume on their cheers.

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, etc., etc.

It doesn't matter if I'm thrown of Kitco because I no longer give a damn about gold or silver or

anything so banal.

Thanks.

F*

Sharefin: FDIC. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Has a nice ring to it. No? It insures accounts up to USD 100k. Funded by banks from a fee based on deposits. Each insured institution proudly, and prominently, displays an FDIC sticker in the front window of the bank.

The fine print however, is seldom divulged. ..... "Trust me, the check's in the mail".

Erle/mozel synchronious at 23:33.

Two days after the 87 Crash, my then girl-friend's father phoned me up to say he had just bought a boatload of cheap stocks. He was not pleased at all when I told him about the 29 lessons, the second downwave is the killer. He ignored the benefit of my reading & research. He held on to these "top-drawer" stocks through the next few months and watched the value of his portfolio decimate.

All the dippies will think they're so smart buying in the trough, they''re gonna end in the trough. That's tough.

ghoti

Nah...they are always tasty if they sit and soak for a while...I don't get what all the fuss is...gold...silver...and platinum are money...you don't purchase them as an investment...people that think like that are brain washed as far as I am concerned or their heads are devoid of brains and the thoughts contained in their cranial cavities are nothing more than the recordings of the various Masters they serve...dura does matter ehthere are not too many items that have been used as long as the metals as money with the exception of alcohol, sex, food, weapons, clothing, a horse...you get the idea...I mean the best part of a dollar ain't even run down its inventing moma's leg in comparison with the amount of time it has been on this earth compared to the metals...

Of course, like I said...my ancestors are older than water and we have been moving closer to where they manufacture the tequila ever since...

Because so many people are already aware of the similarities of today and those of 1929 as well as how so many sandbags have already been laid by the funds who control the most amount of "wealth" on the street, I don't think anyone is realy going to be caught by surprise.

The asian thing has been with us for many months now and is finally beginning to bite. The earnings reports are starting to reflect what everyone on the street knew months ago ( if you disreagrd the hype they publish for the masses. Madison Avenue isn't all that far from Wall Street ) .

Even though they are better prepared, teh economy is still going down and as it does so the market will die the death of a thousand paper cuts.

So I think we will will most likely do the long '30 to '32 kind of thing but without the '29 fireworks.

Many people have created a kind of mythos about "The Crash" and all that but few are familiar with how it REALLY unfolded.

Here is something else you might find of interest:

http://www.scruz.net/~kangaroo/Fed.htm

Aurator: "Viscous". As they say.

http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=376882899&CONTEXT=902014223.1803092009&hitnum=49
One line of code. Now imagine when tens of thousands of bad Lines Of Code
come into play at once. Bad embedded systems. All at once. All over the world.

Can you say Mutiple Simultaneous Parallel Systemic Failures?

Do you know what that does to the electric Utilities that are UTTERLY
dependent upon Telecommunications in order to shoot the juice?


Go ahead, keep thinking that its a speed bump. The Titanic hit a speed bump.

That perception would increase your bank account, wouldn't it? Eh? Go Gold.

Well, good luck in waiting for the crash in October and the sucker rally that follows. You may be waiting out there on that street corner for a long time. We'll drive by and wave now and then. Would you like us to let you know when October is over?

All the crashes are almost exactly similar.Good night. We will see soon.

Just like our friend...RJ.

Tom

The rally thru Feb. is what I will play my friend. 29, 87, 98. Almost exactly the same. Are you blind?

I'll use the charts. Goodnight.

Are you still drinkin' that Mexican fire water? Ever tried corn squeezin's? Invented by that greatest of all Baptist preachers, the Reverend Elijah Craig, from Kentucky. No, I'm not a protestant, but I've discussed the possibilities of canonizing this preacher with my parish priest. I don't hold out much hope but anything is possible.

my words. Wish I did, 'cause I got enough of the stuff. I wonder how long it will take for Joe Sixpack, who two months ago thought himself something of a stock market whiz for buying mutual funds or putting 15% of his income -- all of his savings -- into the market, or even buying an individual stock or two on a tip from a bud, to consider gold as something to buy as an investment that is somehow counter-related to his boneheaded stock market investments? If not Joe Sixpack, who is going to buy gold to make the price go up?
-EJ

They slipped me some bad ice last night, meself.......hope you have a feel-better-Sunday. Salud! G&P to YA! gold=money

Mozel...as always, thanks for your "bidness." Ola y Salud!

nytol ( copyright teddO )

I think we agree the market is going down. You think the conditons today are the same as they were before and so the deline will proceed as it did before.

I don't. I think they are different enough that the progression is going to be different.

We shall see.

After looking at your 23:32, things look glum.
Do you think I should get my teeth fixed and loaded with gold prior to Y2000?
What if I brought my own gold?

Wierd how mozel can read minds, isn't it? He's even better than I had guessed.

strat, I am not at the mouth of the Mighty Root River, from here it appears to be the anus.

The PIGS get fat while the hogs get slautered...Hmmmmmmmm, sad but true.