Only 230 points to go to hit new lows for the year!

This poem was sent to my wife last night by one of her best friends. You see, my wife lost her grandmother this year.

I like it.


MY GRANDMOTHER'S MEMORY

the woman by the sea
...by the harbor
ferverntly, she stitches
...fabrics for the wealthy
and anything for me...
I spend the spring of my life
at my grandmother's side
adding youth's color
to her life's autumn
love and fervent work
blend our seasons
and paint our memories
...with song and dance
I preserve them
...like autumn leaves
between the pages of my heart
now coloring the autumn of my life
with an enduring love...
...the love of my grandmother.

After Y2K for likely a year at least
Even if you survive the flight in
( and since it is a hub you may only be passing on )
The underground trains and baggage system will not work.
You can take that to the bank - your mattress.
The whole airport is so computerized you may as well walk with your luggage in hand. Come to think of it, maybe a bus would be better.
DIA has been a continuing fiasco since the first day of its planning.
Much of the fiasco hidden under the floor will rise up to byte in 2000.

Interesting analysis. I think, though, that to establish a relationship between the lease rates and the POG, you'd need more than two data points.

But I do like you "pushing on a string" analysis and I do think the abnormally low lease are significant. Not quite sure how yet, but I do think they are significant.

During the '87 crash the fed fund rate dropped 200 basis points overnight. Are we seeing here a similar ( but preemptive ) injection of liquidity? Hmmmm.

Another thing: According to my Friendly Dealer, some banks will not lease at rates under 1%. Just won't do it. ( I heard this indirectly last Friday, FWIW. )

sam__A.

IF HK HITS NEW LOWS TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE FOR CHINA TO DEVALUE WILL BECOME unBEARable!

REAL SIGNS FROM AROUND THE WORLD:


In a Tokyo Hotel:
Is forbidden to steal hotel towels please. If you are not
person to do such a thing is please not to read notis.

In a Bucharest hotel lobby:
The lift is being fixed for the next day. During that time
we regret that you will be unbearable.

In a Leipzig elevator:
Do not enter lift backwards, and only when lit up.

In a Belgrade hotel elevator:
To move the cabin, push button for wishing floor. If the
cabin should enter more persons, each one should press a
number of wishing floor. Driving is then going
alphabetically by national order.

In a Paris hotel elevator:
Please leave your values at the front desk.

In a hotel in Athens:
Visitors are expected to complain at the office between the
hours of 9 and 11 A.M. daily.

In a Yugoslavian hotel:
The flattening of underwear with pleasure is the job of the
chambermaid.

In a Japanese hotel:
You are invited to take advantage of the chambermaid.

In the lobby of a Moscow hotel across from Russian Orthodox
monastery:
You are welcome to visit the cemetary where famous Russian
and Soviet composers, artists, and writers are buried daily
except Thursday.

In an Austrian hotel catering to skiers:
Not to perambulate the corriders during the hours of repose
in the boots of ascension.

On the menu of a Swiss restaurant:
Our wines leave you nothing to hope for.

On the menu of a Polish hotel:
Salad a firm's own make; limpid red beet soup with cheesy
dumplings in the form of a finger; roasted duck let loose;
beef rashers beaten up in the country people's fashion.

Outside a Hong Kong tailer shop:
Ladies may have a fit upstairs.

In a Bangkok dry cleaners:
Drop your trousers here for best results.

Outside a Paris dress shop:
Dresses for street walking.

In a Rhodes tailor shop:
Order your summers suit. Because is big rush we will execute
customers in strict rotation.

From the Soviet Weekly:
There will be a Moscow Exhibition of Arts by 150,000 Soviet
Republic painters and sculptors. These were executed over
the past two years.

A sign posted in Germany's Black Forest:
It is strictly forbidden on our black forest camping site
that people of different sex, for instance, men and women,
live together in one tent unless they are married with each
other for that purpose.

In a Zurich hotel:
Because of the impropriety of entertaining guests of the
opposite sex in the bedroom, it is suggested that the lobby be used for this purpose.

In an advertisement by a Hong Kong dentist:
Teeth extracted by the latest Methodists.

In a Rome laundry:
Ladies, leave your clothes here and spend the afternoon
having a good time.

In a Czechoslovakin tourist agency:
Take one of our horse-driven city tours - we guarantee no
miscarriages.

Advertisement for donkey rides in Thailand:
Would you like to ride on your own ass?

In a Swiss mountain inn:
Special today -- no ice cream.

In a Bangkok temple:
It is forbidden to enter a woman even a foreigner if dressed
as a man.

In a Tokyo bar:
Special cocktails for the ladies with nuts.

In a Copenhagen airline ticket office:
We take your bags and send them in all directions.

On the door of a Moscow hotel room:
If this is your first visit to the USSR, you are welcome to it.

In a Norwegian cocktail lounge:
Ladies are requested not to have children in the bar.

In a Budapest zoo:
Please do not feed the animals. If you have any suitable food,
give it to the guard on duty.

In the office of a Roman doctor:
Specialist in women and other diseases.

In an Acapulco hotel:
The manager has personally passed all the water served here.

In a Tokyo shop:
Our nylons cost more than common, but you'll find they are
best in the long run.

From a Japanese information booklet about using a hotel air conditioner:
Cooles and Heates: If you want just condition of warm in
your room, please control yourself.

From a brochure of a car rental firm in Tokyo:
When passenger of foot heave in sight, tootle the horn.
Trumpet him melodiously at first, but if he still obstacles
your passage then tootle him with vigor.

Two signs from a Mojorcan shop entrance:
-- English well speaking
- Here speeching American.

This appears to be The End.

Looks like we'll be in for a bleak ( even black ) Monday in the US markets.

All the vampires walking through the valley
Turn west down Ventura boulevard
And all the bad boys are standing in the shadows
And the good girls are home with broken hearts
Now I'm free ...... Free Fallin
Yeah I'm free ...... Free Fallin
-Tom Petty

Indian demand fell by 84% this year according to everyone's statistics
Armstrong didn't sue anybody, he refused to be a witness in class action suit - it wasn't him who filed. Besides, I bought silver last year when he said a break above $5.40 would send it to $6.40. He then called the high in silver at $7.40 with a stop at $8.10. I bought stocks in 1994 & 1995 and sold everything on his July 20th target. Maybe you don;t like his call in silver, but he is the only guy I have found who called the high in the stock market for July 20th, 1998 4 years in advance. If the object is religion, then don't listen to anyone you disagrees with you. If the object is to make money - you should pay attention.

"Out-come" based education is a failure and a national security threat.
It is no surprise that "outcome-based" drivers can't drive.
They can hardly figure out how to pump gas in their cars.
But even scarier
They are allowed to vote too.

Skinny,
I hope we can quietly get away with using our Gold & Silver for trade.
That we don't get arrested for "possession" of a controlled substance.
They may legalize WJC's cocaine but make possession of Gold illegal!

I found this e-mail I sent to a non-believer a few months ago. He had just e-mailed me an article about the Swiss selling gold. I thought you might enjoy it.
=======================================

This is the THIRD TIME in the last 6 months that the Swiss have released this same story. Maybe they have an ulterior motive. You would think that eventually the market would discount it. I wonder about the intelligence of the markets sometimes.

I think gold is suffering a little bit from the strong dollar, also. It is not dead!!! The dollar in its current form has only been around about 40? years. Gold has been money for 3000+ years. Long term, currencies come and go, but gold is forever. The only thing that gives the dollar value is the promise that future generations will keep paying interest the 5 trillion dollar debt and the fact that it is a reserve currency. If the Euro turns out strong, it could knock the dollar off its reserve currency pedestal. All the ECB would have to do is back it with plenty of gold.

Eventually the world will figure out our scam. We buy all these cheap
foreign goods and pay with dollars. Then we borrow those same dollars and use them to purchase more cheap foreign goods. We get all the goods and the suckers get a promise to pay interest. This is kind of like a pyramid scheme that cannot last forever. Luckily, these same stupid foreigners are selling their gold and letting us buy it cheap with our over valued dollars. Soon we will have all the goods AND all the gold that we are smart enough to buy, and they will end up with worthless IOU's. Ha, ha, stupid foreigners.

Another thing people say is that with fancy derivatives, there is no need
for gold any more. They have never experienced a crisis situation where people default on their derivatives like they default on bad loans. They will be holding their worthless pieces of paper that say someone else owes them money while the people with the gold inherit the earth. No one in my generation knows what a real crisis is like. The only crisis they know is when they cannot find an SUV in the color they want. The educational system is so bad, that they have no concept of history. The Depression and the World Wars were real. ( So was Tulip Mania and the South Sea bubble. )  The generation that remembers the Depression is gone.

This was the ranting of a true gold bug. I renounce my allegiance to green paper and pledge loyalty to yellow metal.

The Hang Seng, I say, THE HANG SENG IS DOWN OVER 4 %? THEY MIGHT HAVE TO DEVALUE THE YUAN!!

Let me clarify my point in writing about PEI--
Beware following ANY forecaster - Prechter, Armstrong, Rogers, etc. - no one knows how the future will play out ( ie past performance is no indication of future results ) - watch your money management if you do follow anyone else's advice.

I agree that in his detailed reports, Armstrong gives his reversal points. However, his short articles and speaking engagements do not, and he writes with an obvious bias ( eg. silver at the moment ) . Like I said, 1 1/2 years ago, he was asked for the 4 best investments for the year. He said interest rates would skyrocket, Aus $ would rise, gold and silver would be bullish, and US stocks would go up - no mention when to bail out ( he sounded SO confident ) He batted one for four - hopefully his followers received the reversal points for his recommmendations. At times he can be apocalyptic too ( gave a warning to get out of CAD $ and CAD stocks 2 years ago - 50 cent dollar just around the corner - he was a LITTLE early too. ( rule # 1 for forecasters - predict often. rule #2 - give a price, or a time, but never both )

Versus Prechter? - Well, Prechter was calling for a drop in gold below 200 long before Armstrong, a possible flight into US $ as a safe haven, deflation, etc. back in 1995. Looks pretty good right now. Also, Prechter follows 1 method ( Elliott ) , and lays it all out for all to see ( although very subjective at times ) . Can you explain how Armstrong does it - how does he come up with his computer generated numbers?

Bottom line - if any forecaster was REALLY good, do you think they would sell their ideas to the public, or would they keep it to themselves and trade their own $$$.

Take care - and go gold ( here's hoping BOTH Prechter and Armstrong are wrong! - eventually! )

metals coming under pressure both broke last week's low

NYSE will go to money heaven. Once the idea of the coupling of gold to the yen goes away to the land of coincidentallity, gold is going to resume it's historical reservoir of value.
Just wait until the bible thumpers and their throngs start buying.
BTW, I am not denigrating them. I agree more than not.
The sheeple are going to be restless.
6 gold ads a day is registering on them. They are not stupid, they will buy. I think that many of you do not account for the animosity toward Empire.
Gold will go, after a short hammering time.

using same principle as option models. That's why they are not a standard % from high or low. Armstrong always says his opinion comes second to his computer models. Like dollar yen, he got that one one the money in 1995 at 79 and called for a rally to 144.80 by 1998. He says "if" dollar/yen closes ABOVE 144.80 on monthly & yearly basis, then its a 7 year bull market up to 278. I agree about all analysts. What I find interesting is how all markets are connected. Push one & the others follow. In the case of Armstrong, I know some guys in interbank market. They say PEI is the largest hedge fund manager in the world. His Australia fund was up 73% last year and his European fund made 40%+ for July being short S&P 500. Nobody's perfect, but so far he comes out on top based upon my experience with a bunge of different guys. Still, I don't follow anyone blindly.

I should clarify "hedge fund" with regard to PEI is real hedge fund for corporates & institutionals - not public fund like Soros. Definition of hedge fund seems to be anything that is not long only these days. But what I was told was that PEI is a real wholesale management operation.

the performance can be checked at following URL

http://www.afsd.com.au/ppmf3.htm

Stock Index Futures on GLOBEX tonight resumin' their long painful slide down the slippery red slope to oblivion! Tomorrow will not be a pretty sight for US equities! WAKE UP AMERICA! SELL EQUITIES! AND BUY GOLD! The pied piper of imploding debt and currency devaluation is about to be paid for all the world's excesses over the course of the last 16 years!

Both opened DOWN HARD!

First of all, "everyone's statistics" don't point to an 84% drop in Indian demand. ( I refer to CPM research. ) No doubt demand is down, but a lot of these numbers refer to 1st quarter year-over-year stats. Well, the price peaked in the 1st quarter - price sensitive folk like the Indians will hold back during such spikes. One quarter doth not a trend make.

Second of all, you could eliminate India from the entire equation and the silver market would still be in deficit. ( Yes - it's true! )

Third of all, while I didn't follow Armstrong's recommendations during the Buffet run-up, I clearly remember Princeton repeatedly alledging manipulation in the Silver market throughout January. Press release after press release to this effect. Come the end of the month, some bucket shop out of Vancouver that nobody has ever heard of files suit. The statement of claim reads _exactly_ like the Princeton "manipulation" press releases. Coincidence? Perhaps. But the Street is quite comfortable with the notion that the suit was undertaken at Armstrong's initiative. ( And of course he isn't going testify! )

Fourthly, I don't follow his equity recommendaions. He may be right on the money. Good for him.

Lastly, I suppose I object to Armstrong's method of analysis more than I object to the results of his analysis. Look: we've had a billion oz drawdown in silver surface reserves over the last decade because the price has ranged, for the most part, between 4-6 bucks. This is well below the price needed for physical market clearing. Now we are down to the point where a puny 1 billion capital flow into silver virtually exhausts liquidity -- there ain't much left. And the physical short position is as high as ever. And what's Armstrong now calling for? $3 silver! Why? Because of some inane chartist reasoning. He doesn't even mention the fundamentals! Sorry - the guy is a fool.

with respect,

sam__a.

So far, this fund makes great money everytime the stock market crashes. He seems to pick every turn on the money. He got last October and
this fund made more than 10% during the week of July 20th.

http://www.afsd.com.au/ppmf3.htm

At least in the case of PEI, they seem to follow their own work in this fund and have a good track record for the past 3 years.

Looks like Farfel's prediction that K2 would come back to life was accurate. Now it would be nice to hear when the same might happen to the gold market.

I guess that now might be a good time to clear up any confusion about the difference between K1 & K2. As I've already mentioned, the netiquette rules are strictly enforced on K1. But there will be less of an effort to enforce any of the first four netiquette rules on K2. ( These are the "be nice" rules. This is still a gold discussion group and everyone is strongly encouraged to use ICQ or go on another site to go off-topic ) Nobody gets 404ed from K2 unless Im inundated with requests from others to do so. Everybody who has 404 status from K1 can still post on K2.

As far as advertising goes, we need more sponsors for K1 and an active effort will be made to find them. In fact the future of K1 will depend on it. On the other hand I don't expect any advertising revenues to be earned from K2.

Someone was asking about filters to read only posts of specific contributors. Bells & whistles like a search engine, filters, squelch and contributor subscriptions will be added as long as we've got the sponsors, and therefore the financing, to program them. They'll be available on both groups at the same time - if and when.

100% canadian juniors..yri..bsc..cnp..arz..tso and others of similar ilk. Things have not been going to good lately, but poker is my family pastime and I still think I have a winning hand. Bought in March.

I'm putting up a few more bucks for more, they are so down. From now on tho I am consulting with my wife, she's my anchor.

Please explain how Armstrong's models justify 3 buck silver. What "physics" are you talking about?

With baited breath,

sam__A.

Pakistan just broke 5% on their market loss this morning, I think they were the first to do that today. Shouldn't they get a prize or something ? Kidding aside, it is weird to watch this, it's like watching a fire raging across the planet as the sun rises *grin*. I don't see a market that isn't down, and most appear to be off 2-5% or more.

The London Financial Times wrote details on who was behind the suit. It was a legal firm headed by Chris Lovell. The same guy who filed the class action against NASDAQ & Sumitomo Copper. I Don't think Armstrong had anything to do with those. Just because he warns that silver could collapse to $3 doesn't make him a fool. His computer models are also warning that the dollar could blow-off to upside. If dollar yen goes to 200 next year based upon the fundamentals ( read Big Bang II on PEI site ) , the deficit in silver has lasted for 18 years, what's another year or so? Persoanlly, I don't care about silver. I am willing to make money on any investment. I like gold. Always have. Silver has always been volatile.

The more anything moves to an extreme on either side, then the slightest amount of pressure will cause the greatest amount of change. It would be more difficult to get silver to move to $10 now after such a fall than it would if silver made a new low. If silver dropped to Armstrong's target of $3 it would then be propelled upward much faster than it can move from a sideways base. Likewise, the higher the stock market moves, the greater the crash. Both mechanisms are the same. They are the Laws of Entropy.

By the end of this year, our trade defecit will be 300 Billion. Can the dollar continue to strengthen with such huge trade gaps approaching? If the dollar weakens and labor costs rise, can inflation remain contained.?

Just read their web page. Surprised they dont own the world. If it is
too good to be true ....

Envy: How's the Nikkei? How's POG? CBS Marketwatch shows it unchanged from Friday, which would be up slightly from earlier tonight.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/market_monitor.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Good Sherlock Holmes quotes-- http://www.bcpl..net/~lmoskowi/HolmesQuotes/quotes.html

That late October would be the time to by Gold and energy stocks. The smoke would have cleared, the market would be much lower, and we would have full buying power at much cheaper prices. January would be the last safe month for other stocks.

Try again http://www.bcpl.net/~lmoskowi/HolmesQuotes/quotes.html

Will be the big winners post crash. They have huge late cycle upside.
Energy would have to be sold late December. Gold could really run. I base this on the HUGE trade defecit and rising wages. Energy is so oversold, that any cold weather could give these stocks an explosive relief rally. Gold is coiled for a weaker dollar.

The quotes I'm looking at aren't as real time as I'd like, but they show the Nikkei down 273.28, about 1.7% from Friday. POG seems steady but I just use the Kitco graph for that, so I dunno really.

It is important to be in cash now. As JD says, keep your powder dry. I have changed my mind about tradeable rally. I, at least, am not nimble enough. There will be no tradeable rallys until the crash.

I do read FT, but I don't remember catching that article. It was a law firm that filed the class-action suit, was it? And this guy just did it out of the blue? He was not in any way influenced by the repeated temper-tantrums Armstrong threw in January? No phone calls were made? Are you sure? Really? We will never know....

( On second thought, now that you mention that the guy nominally behind the suit was also the guy behind the Sumitomo suit -- this rings bells. The Sumitomo case is a constant theme in Armstrong's Silver writings. Are you sure these guys never talked? )

I agree with you on one point -- if the dollar goes to 200 yen, silver is in trouble. But can you really see the yen going to 200? Do you have any idea of what that would do to the US trade deficit? 200 yen means a fifty cent C-Buck. Canada is the US's largest trading partner. A fifty cent C-Buck would cause US production to atrophy. Same thing as the Yuan-Yen spread. The powers that be will not allow this to happen. The US will devalue first. Has to. And this is what I see:

sam__A's Prediction: We will enter a cycle of competitive devaluations. Everyone's gonna start printing. And this can only be good for the precious metals.

cheers,

sam__a.

You can hear me now and believe me later,,,, goodnight gentlemen.

South African press regards Durban Deep results favourably. Details at http://www.drd.co.za/ - updated daily.

Whole asia markets saw red this afternoon,..
: http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets.

...it has a certain "Je ne sais quoi."

I've drawn up a list of five internationals I will contact about posting on this forum.

Thanks.

F*

1 ) Sam__A
2 ) Rhody
3 ) Gollum
4 ) Bill Buckler
5 ) Tyoung
6 ) Jonesy
7 ) Gogold
8 ) A.Goose
9 ) Voyeur Professor
10 ) Mozel
11 ) Blooper
12 ) Silverbaron
13 ) Donald
14 ) Leland
15 ) Cheesehead ( ONLY when capitalizing )

All are MUST reads.

Thanks.

F*

I have Shannon's seminal paper on entropy not 4 ft from me as I write. ( Bell Labs Tech. Journal, c. 1948. ) Entropy is a measure of disorder. More formally, Entropy H = SUM [-Pi * ln ( Pi ) ], where Pi is the probability of discrete event i of occuring. Question: How does this help you make money in the markets?

But I agree with you in general. You say: "The more anything moves to an extreme on either side, then the slightest amount of pressure will cause the greatest amount of change." Five buck silver _is_ extreme! This is well-evidenced by the huge silver carry trade. And you are right: the greater the extreme, the greater the correction!

We agree. This is good. Gotta fly. Will catch your response in the morn'.

Cheers and best regards.

sam__A.

The $ always goes up if there is chaos out there. If Russia collapses, Europe has 90% of all debt exposure. $ always rallies like Gulf War, WWI, WWII. Troops can't invade NAmerica so capital flees to safe haven. We have to face reality. There are $40 trillion in world capital. If $ goes up big time and stocks crash, then Fed will be forced to ease. Armstrong warns that $9 trillion is deregulated in Japan at year-end. Pension funds there need to make 5% to breakeven. Do you really think they won't send their cash out when restrictions are lifted at year-end when interest rates in Japan are only 1/10th%? Japan represents 40% of world cash savings. In my opinion, they are the source of world deflation. They captured all this cash & then prevented it from investing overseas creating shortage in world market = deflation. Now that their banks are in trouble & Russia threatens European banks, US may be only place left to go. Gold is BELOW its 1985 low. The $ is at new highs against Canada but still well below its highs of 1985. The yen was 300 15 years ago. If commods have moved below 1985 levels, why it is so nuts to think that the $ will not move to new highs above 1985 or at least retest those points?

Oh ya. CPM Group is paid consultant to PhiBro. I don't think the class action lawsuit had much effect anyway. The metals have crashed due to market forces. Also read somewhere that Chris Lovell was the attorney on the Hunt Bros case as well back in 1980. In case you don't know what a class action suit is, it is funded by the law firm who in turn gets 30-40% of the pay out. The Nasdaq case was $1 billion. I don;t think these guys need funding from anyone.

1 ) golden eagle ( featuring the great Vronsky )
2 ) USA GOLD ( Kosares, Veneroso, and ANOTHER )
3 ) STEVE KAPLAN sings about PM's ( available on CD )
4 ) KITCO ( especially K-2 )

While devaluations tend to cut labor costs and increase profits in the subject country, the effected industries tend to put efficient production on the backburner, this along with higher costs for capital equiptment and raw materials generally works against the temporary benefits.

All option pricing models are based upon Black & Schols which is the transfer of heat equation. I can't explain why the transfer of heat to cold works, but the entire derivatives markets is based on it.

Are you from St. Louis?

no try LA

I'm just north of Chicago, went to school in Missouri.

Strong US figures not enough
to rescue the board

Commodities,
By Stephen Wyatt

Commodity prices slumped to fresh five-year lows on
Friday, led by a sharp fall in the yen and renewed fears of
further economic weakness throughout Asia.

Agricultural markets were especially weak and gold
broke back down towards its 18-year lows.

Even better than expected US second-quarter GDP
growth of 1.4 per cent was not enough to counterbalance
fears of another round of competitive currency
devaluations throughout Asia and accelerating deflation in
Japan.

The commodity markets just fell apart.

"The US and Europe have been the engines of demand
that have partially offset the Asian crisis and, while the
US GDP figure is better than expected, it's just not
enough to rescue the board [overall commodities]," said
senior futures strategist with Merrill Lynch in New York
Mr Bill O'Neill.

In fact, for the gold market, the US GDP numbers were
a downright bummer.

Low US inflation, with the US Government's
second-quarter GDP deflator ( chain-weighted price
index ) falling to an annual rate of just 0.8 per cent from
the first quarter's 0.9 per cent kept any buying interest in
gold as a hedge against inflation at bay.

But that was only half the bad news for gold. Japan's new
Finance Minister, the sprightly 78-year-old Mr Kiichi
Miyazawa, drove a further nail into gold's coffin when he
said on Friday he would let the market determine the
value of the yen except in extreme circumstances.

This pushed the yen to a six-week low against the US
dollar of 144.75 in New York, just above its
seven-year lows hit in mid-June when the US and
Japanese central banks intervened to support the
currency.

As the yen slipped, so did its new-found closest relative,
gold. Gold closed in New York at $US286.50 an ounce,
a fresh six-week low and just above its 18-year low of
$US278/oz hit in January this year.

This new bond between gold and the yen stems from the
yen becoming the proxy for the economic health of not
just Japan but of Asia as a whole.

This is not so silly. After all, the yen is the most liquid
market in Asia that investors such as the big hedge funds
can trade to position themselves against the fortunes or
misfortunes of Asia.

Also impacting on gold was further evidence of serious
deflation in Japan. Gold is oftenbought as a hedge against
inflation. Japanese consumer prices in June rose only 0.1
per cent year-on-year and, excluding medical expenses,
actually fell 0.4 per cent.

And all the time, the market-place knows that a third of
the gold ever mined  about 30,000 tonnes  still sits in
the vaults of the world's central banks.

For commodities generally, this sort of deflationary global
macroeconomic environment remains a constant
dampener on any sustained price recovery.

That's one reason why Merrill Lynch's Mr O'Neill says
the widely followed Commodity Research Bureau Index
of 21 US commodity futures markets has further to fall,
even though on Friday it hit five-year lows.

can't wait to see what tomorrow brings

make their production very competitive with US producers. So far, the absence of bank lending has prevented Asian countries from fully exploiting their improved competitive position. If credit-worthiness is restored, American imports from Asia will surge, causing job loss in this country.

They will not send you a prospectus.Martin Armstrong is the advisor of Princeton Precious Metals and Capital markets Fund, he does not own it or run it.

http://www.afsd.com.au/ppmf4.htm

Cash, dry powder, until the CORRECTION is over. No one likes the word crash.

and from my painful experience he is right.

France and Germany both open lower.

I too learned the hard way. It is a lesson well learned.

Just look, and tell me what you see.

Overseas, underwater, huh?

Date: Mon Aug 03 1998 02:24
Spock ( Gold and Commodities looking bad. ) ID#210114:

Strong US figures not enough
to rescue the board

Commodities,
By Stephen Wyatt
........................................
Great article, where does it come from?
Thanks in advance!

I often wonder to what extent "the fear of gold confiscation" curtails both coin and bullion sales, also laws for reporting large transactions -relative to banking rules- probably effect such purchases.

Speaking with a buddy who is finishing a feature film in Montreal, Canada, he informs me that, with a .66 cent dollar, Americans are flooding into Canada to shoot their movies. I checked over the VARIETY movie schedule and, in fact, it is absolutely amazing how many Hollywood studios are shooting films in Canada.

It makes sense...shoot your $50 million ( CAN. ) production in Canada, utilize Canadian sound stages, post produce the film in Canadian facilities, then sell it to a large US distributor for expensive US DOLLARS.

If this trend continues ( US BUCK strengthening while CDN. dollar tumbles ) , then pretty soon there will be absolutely little if any film shooting taking place in America.

This portends very badly for Los Angeles since most American feature films to date have been shot right here. Those films utilize soundstages, post production facilities, local talent, etc. so their departure from L.A. would have contagious negative effects.

A severe downturn in L.A. location shooting could augur a downturn in the entire L.A. economy. Then, what happens to the value of all this pricey L.A. real estate? Ooops.

Essentially, the thrust of this article is this: those US dollar bulls who speak of a US dollar moving to 200 yen or better ( or Canadian .50 cents ) are sheer lunatics. If they believe that the American economy can sustain its positive momentum with such a ridiculously strong US dollar, then they are truly dreaming.

There are many American industries that would shut down effectively at a 200 yen ( CDN. 50 ) dollar...unless protectionist measures are enforced.

In conclusion, the only manner in which I believe America can sustain such a strong dollar in the international economy is to evolve into an ultra-fascist state. The government would be required to intervene forcefully in the economy and restrict industrial investment capital from pouring into cheap currency countries with all its deflationary effects.

Moreover, the American government would have to impose financial investment inflow controls to preclude foreign capital from pouring into American investment vehicles and triggering inflationary conditions.

Without all these investment controls, then America would explode into a severe stagflation.

Thanks.

F*

I won't miss it today. Great fund tho. Much safer than US. Will use in late October, Along with the Gold fund. Mabe Energy. All very undervalued.

When current accounts kills overvalued dollar. Should occur about 2 days after the DOW freefalls.

Oh, I was just watching these DAX and CAC 40 numbers changing, they started back up a little bit ago, I assume that means the markets just opened, I guess. Anyway, DAX is off about 1.5%, CAC 40 opened lower but is back to being about even.

Phillipines, Hong Kong, and a few of the other asians were off 4%.

Earl
I've not received any email

nicko
Did you get yours?

Eventually we will either close off our markets as protectionist sentiment increases towards lower domestic output , or the dollar will have to be brought down. How do they bring down the dollar? Making more has not worked. You cannot stop people from wanting something.

The United States is caught in a trap whereby the strength of the dollar will choke off domestic production of goods and some services unless the borders are shut.

This will be inflationary during a time of economic stagnation. Stagflation. This could be as soon as third and fourth quarter 1998 if GDP growth keeps slowing and Asia devalues further.

They must think US will rally. US oversold. The oversold indicator is broken. This they will discover soon.

A little slow to catch on to the brevity of the matter. They are a lot less oversold. They will fall too. I will buy Europe late in October.

Europe is a lot less overbought.

When foreigners take their money out ( crash ) , the dollar goes down.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980803/market/markets9.html

Our market is looking less like a safe haven, and more like a sinking ship.. Inflation would kill the dollar. Current accounts deficit will killm the dollar.

I think you're right. I hope that such a gold spike takes the miners along for the ride and those people exiting the markets use a good percentage of their cash for such. Lets hope that they are not burned to badly.

Read your post theother night about the Silver Kookaburras down Adelaide Arcade.

As a fellow Adelaidian I know the shop. It has coins and medals on one side and the other faces the arcade.

I personally have found Adelaide Exchange Jewellers as having the best prices for bullion. If you know someone cheaper I'd be glad to hear it.

Live Long and Prosper.

The dollar is going down fairly soon I think. I'm waiting for Kitco to throw in the towel. Most already have. There are a few left. Then I'm going to do what I been wanting to do for a long time. BUY GOLD.

thing in the world. It is like nothing else in the world. It almost makes up for this persecution we been going thru.

Tell us a bedtime story about a gold rally.

Denmark, France, Germany, Russia, and Switzerland markets are all open now, and all are down at least 1 percent.

1995 sonny boy, your old uncle blooper bought gold in December, and by the end of the month it was startin to go. By January of 96, son it was blastin off like a rocket. I wuz makin money hand over fist. It ran all the way to the 3rd day of June or so, as I recollect. I wuz rich, or so I thought.. It waz the most fantastic amount o money I ever made..... Boy, Boy. I puts you to bed missinlink, you're a good boy. Tomorrow night I'll tell you about the rally late in 98.

Russia isn't open, apologies.

Austria, Finland and Israel are all open now, however, and all down.

I'll stop annoying you guys with the up to the minute play-by-play now. *grin*

I'm desperate.


GO GOLD!!!!!!!!!





Damn!,

I promised myself I would never do that!

Live Long and Prosper.

Keep it up. I love this stuff.

Some shareholders did some reading this weekend. Mabe a little research.. Maybe some soul searching. Those in Asia, Europe, etc.

You are a good contrary indicator. I'm gettin an itchy triger finger. No, what am I sayin, Keep that powder dry.

When I purchased the physical last year I didn't think that it would be this bad.

The suckers rallies of October last and Marc/April this year were VERY disheartening.

Oh well. Let's hope.

Live Long and Prosper.

The rumour that some gold mutual funds are or have closed shop, seems to indicate that gold, silver and the indivigual shares will be the available vehicles for the public to indulge in, hopefully the fears that I expressed earlier will not effect the metals, but the shorts covering their butts should give the metals a solid jolt.
I think that this Yen/Gold ( down together relation ) is a short term mania. When we take away the Japanese Bank's bad loan portfolios, their currency is much stronger than the $ and I know that gold is much stronger than both.

Germany, France really tankin.

Okay, I'll do on-the-scene reporting for a little bit.

Netherlands and South Africa just opened, both off about 1 percent.

what savage bear is this accelerating gold price collapse

while yet
loyal legions insist their grip
and hold on
in shuddering shaking
denying grief

while gorged genies
generate
even more hordes
too heavy
in their blind-less belief

what is the twist & turn of truth
in this swirling caldron
at the booth
where heaven meets earth
in our
current turf


accelerating volume in mining shares share of truth
Commmitment of Traders Commercials,
eager to begin a new chapter of buying,
announced in the 2nd quarter of '98....
may hint of 3rd & 4th quarter numbers, not envisioned,
in our limited view & seat....
of humility's final retreat

....

While yet,
currency pressures agonize, in this
seeming ..... toss-up, and
dead
beat.

But eager alternatives to once & often
"King Dollar"
now offer their alternative,
to its fading,
and once-ultimate
now-repudiat-ing/-ed
retreat.

He/She...
who was last,
will be made first.
And he/she...
who was first,
will be last.

Many there are, who listen,
yet precious few,
truely hear.

The gate is wide-open
but few are there,
who find the narrow path.

Rest assured, even so,
unconditional is the law & love
where
hiding, are
in the material world
of we .....

feeble and fabulous
and eagerly living, and
thriving
these gifts:

brushed on the canvass of boundless aritists
devoted & adoring
in their rainbow paint
and pure intent....

and,
scribed in the hidden & patient pages of script-writers,
authors, poets, and class-room kids abounding
...in the joy of their word-music's
eager reason, magic, ink & rhyme & bent

and,
while also, yet whispered
in the terrifying, momentarily-stifled shout
of classmates, laborers, orators, teachers,
and philosophers, singers, and statesmen to boot....

hell-bent for 'lent'
are all of us of you
leaning over
and eager
to risk
truth
harboring
in each of our
souls' yearning
seeking
beauty
and lifting
blue

so yet
terrified
in to the consuming fire
of white heat's darkest silent truth

yet insisting, once more
on birthing
in this be-twixt of me & you
yearning
to love
unconditionally
happy
and unanimously
free

that we might each pick up a needle
and the others of us a thread

to sew
mend
and brew
a-new
the god-goodness
of the each of we 'me's'
and the each of you 'you's'

reflecting
in the purifying waters
of earth's bounty
and perfection
true.

And so apparent crashing debris of gold
and seeming betrayal of silver's 'due'


cannot hold a candle
to the heat of heave
and heart of gold
that lives
and thrives
in the silvery mind
of you
unifying
with the soul of humanity
that lives
also
in the most humble
and forgotten
of the the most abondoned
entity

p.s.
when gold & silver money are surrendered to,
the vast majority of most of humanity,
will no longer suffer, as now,
to the point where parents surrender their children,
for a pay-check not received & unavailable...

and to the point, yet,
where tyrants are funded still
by more sinister, disguised, polite while desperate powers

feigning freedom & order & justice
while lining the pockets
of purveyors of deceit, control, domination, and treason.

But wait,
'pogo, the servant of god, reminds us, once again:
we've met the enemy;
and he/she is us."

Evil triumphs,
when good men/women,
do nothing.

The U.S. of America has no monopoly on truth.
Even-so, there has perhaps been no more blood spilt,
than that which gushered a red flow
upon the fields, hills, & river-banks,
of the 19th Century American Civil War,
rooted in the sacred, tortured, arena...
of values & beliefs.

And surely, none among us,
would dispute the enormous partaking, participation, passion, and silent, sacrificing persistentnce,
of the U.S. of America,
in the tragic chapter of W.W. II.

Granted all the causes/factors, that contributed to this hideous chapter, in humanity's evolution;
even-so, even-more-so, our nation's willingness,
to sacrifice it's resources, not only for it's own sake,
but for the sake of IDEAS, VALUES, the HONOR of:
liberty,
humanity sancity & sacredness of the individual soul, body & spirit & heart...

for here-in
lay the hope of heaven
on earth.

No where,
has thete been such a sacrifice, such a duty surrendered to,
such an eloquent testament to the angered anquisehed squelched...
of:
"why god?! - why me?!...
than here, in the
the ditch * tide of D-Day..
in the burst & blast
of the Battle of the Bulge,
most conveniently, politely
and mostly forgotten ...

And with Japanese/Pacific theatre

So...
so many buckets of blood guts & gore have thus been spent


we might risk
asking ourselves
what would be our future,
if the entire world surrendered to
and were willing to be governed by
a gold & silver based monetary & credit system....


would governments not grovel at
self-righteous ruination
of one another, as in the afdter-math of WW I....?

would all nations susbside their national pride & fear,
realizinf that they are equals,
and an equal & level playing
economic, trade, competive, and politicallly just playing-fie;d


governed by the inherent governor of nature's money,
quite simply
humble gold, and even more humble
silver coin & currency, and credit there-to convertible.
flowed upon it's

It has been hell. Very disheartning..It could get a little worse.. Then comes the payoff. Zooom. It is coming and fairly soon. 3 more months. I hope sooner.

Could beat the paper to the launch pad. The physical doesn't have to go through the "correction" ( crash ) .

I have set my self some stops. definately selling if there is no movement by February next year.

Will keep an eye on the end of August as well.

I'm new to this. Physical seemed safer. Also like the look of it.

Good luck to all.

Live Long and Prosper.

The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch weekly is now available at http://www.drd.co.za/.

positive attitudes of many years of high returns. It is hard for most. By October they will have seen the light. They will leave the market like the lemmings they were on the way in. They will sell at the bottom out of fear. I will do my best to buy at that inflection point.

Greece opened up I think, but it didn't stay there long, it's down as well.

Disney law no 1 says gold = 41250/145.25 = 284 ..
Action seems to lag by a day or so .. This says
we have gold at 284 to look forward to .. Im
getting sick of this .
Rand opened 6.18 .. Market here will be off in
view Friday dow .. asia morning .

For a couple of crusty old patriots, we got the crap kicked out of us the other day, did't we. Two nice guys like us. Whas gwan on around hea lately?

blooper said:

"A GOLD RALLY is the most fantastic thing in the world. It is like nothing else in the world. It almost makes up for this persecution we been going thru."

Well, I certainly hope that a gold rally happens SOONER rather than later. Personally, I've extremely weary of the combination of loss, fear and persecution - especially when there is no sure way of knowing if and when this @#$%&*# gold bear will at long last go into hibernation.

Although I should have been in bed long before now, last week's frustrations compelled me to log on during the wee hours...perhaps both out of an almost buried hope that the PM's will FINALLY turn upward, or perhaps to confirm my fears that they may slide further before we goldbugs finally get RELIEF. Meanwhile, it annoys me greatly ( I'm struggling to tone down my language ) to think that other rich manipulators are making such profits at our expense...not to mention the expense of the gold mines that are going under.

Why in the world don't the gold mining companies UNITE TOGETHER and put a stop to this @#$%# conspiracy against the POG???

Is there ANY INTELLIGENT way of knowing when and where gold will bottom,
when and where silver will bottom, and/or when and where platinum will bottom? The incessant dying rallies followed by more price pits is really getting depressing...and expensive. May God cause gold to reach a more realistic value soon! GO GOLD!!! UPWARDS and ONWARDS!!!

--Skip

France-86. Get me outta dese stocks.

And may long suffering honest, hard working, decent folk----have that gold rally, like the one in 96, only better,, cause, doggonit, we deserve it.
Good night all. GO GOLD.

Nothing can stop gold when the dollar changes directions. Nothing.

Italy and Belgium just opened, both down something like 1 percent.

Do you have credible reason to believe that we will finally see the end of this gold bear within three months? I'm MORE than ready to see a significant spike upwards. Ever since I started purchasing gold and gold stocks, I've seen the value go down, down... d o w n . . . the toilet, and taking what little financial strength I had right with it. The fear and sadness is starting to get to me.

Sometimes I wonder who the lemmings are. Perhaps it is BOTH the stock market chasers AND us goldbugs. Right now it seems as though the big boys have the entire financial world staged for all of us to lose, except for a small minority that might happen to time their moves perfectly. Somehow I can't help but feel like they will spring the door on the DOW when most of the money is sucked in, and they will lift the lid on PM's when they have ruined or discouraged as many goldbugs as possible -- and bankrupted as many mines as possible. This is just my opinion, and I hope it is wrong.

Nobody knows how hard it's been for gold investons. Payback must be real good. It will be.God looks out for gold investors. He's going to need a lot of it pretty soon ( for paving? ) .

Spain and Turkey open down about 1 percent.

You guys getting bored with this yet ? *grin*

1. Current accounts deficit to be 300 Billion by yeae's end.....2. wage inflation is rising. Lot of strikes. 3. the 10 year bond yield is less than the Fed funds rate. ( inverted yield curve ) tells me the dollar is going down. Both the market and the dollar top together..We are about to see a crash in stocks. That should do it for the dollar.

I forgot the Euro. that cannot be good for the dollar. It might hurt it bad. Gold will blast off. Watch for the Fed. If they rase, get out till they lower.

If you have enough to eat just go to bed. This is a long term thing - unless you are planning on retireing in the next few months jsut forget it. Wait for the EURO. Wait for Y2k. If you're not leveraged to death you'll look great in 12 months. What's the hurry? Buck up. Skip a credit card payment and buy a godl coin just to remind yourself the stuff is for real. Get some rolaids. Get some sleep. Dream of your glorious future. YOU ARE SMART! So what Gold takes a dip? This is the past. Let it be. If you thought you were going to be a trader well you were half right, you're an invester. You have twenty year plan; what's a few months? So what's the real bad news? If you'd a waited you could have bought more. SO WHAT?! You expectec maybe to hit the EXACT bottom? NO way. Be glad you didn't put your money in 18 years ago. Now that WOULD be a bummer.

Get the point? It's cool - you did good, Now go to bed!

G'nite

...get shatupon today??? ( Friday for CanaMerkans )

Longs goin' down faster 'an puts kin go up.

Gettin' tired of this.

Could drive one to the bottle.

Speaking of which...

...

...

Been smellin' a bottom for so long, my nose has changed colour...

...

Saw a good cartoon today...

Prezzie wearin' a black dress...

"Its mine", says he.

Merkans don't care who he's forkin'...

...long as their shares go up.

When ( not if ) shares go down...

He will still be safe.

Know why??

'Publicans want a bunch of weak Demos to run aginst.

Won't impeach.

Just kneecap.

"Don't pay the ferryman...'till he gets you to the other side..."

We are going to have a recession next year. If it doesn't start next year, then it will be heading that way. You know the dollar is about to start a multi-year downturn. The yen will start a multi year upturn. I know many will disagree, but I don't care. It is in the cards that Gold will have the best rally. The last laugh. Now you can go to bed. Everything will work out.

Here is the US yield curve. It is indeed flat and maybe a touch inverted. You can access other countries' YCs at this site. Britain is strongly inverted. Wonder why. Perhaps an overlooked problem with the Pound-Sterling or the Euro, eh. http:www.bloomberg.com/usatoday/C13.html

Norway and Sweden both open down.

I'm going to go do some stuff ( even though watching the opens has been fun ) . In short - there isn't a market that has opened on Monday that isn't down, most by about 1 percent, some as high as 6 percent. That includes Asia and Europe.

With the velocity of the down-trend in the DOW on friday just before the close and a good lead from the rest of the eastern markets, I've little doubt that the DOW will look sorta icky today, wouldn't be surprised if it was a coupla hundred points icky.

http://www.bloomberg.com/usatoday/C13.html

The dollar is topping. There may be an attempt by the Fed to defend it, but you can't hold back fundamentals. The dollar is going down. Foreign money is scared money. I CRASH will do it for them.

And make some coffee. The coming crash in October, eerily similar to 29, and 87, will be a buying opportunity thru January. Don't be caught dead in stocks come March.

Correction. Gold stocks will be a hold. Also post crash, energy stocks should soar, but must be sold by late December. Buy gold and hold it. It will be the buy of the year.

Gooday from the chilly Midwest.......when someone says "goodnite'' dont you think they would leave ?

Comparatively cheap. Nov., Dec., and Jan., are strong seasonals. This is a sucker rally, but if youre out by late January, you won't be a sucker.

Have you no enthusiasm. You will probably sell at the bottom, but point well taken.

Re: Dollar how does one rebut Armstrong's assertion about the freed up Yen savings. I thought that already occurred with the 4/1/98 big bang now someone pointed out it wont occur until 1/1/99. Which is it. It could make for nice year end rally. Could some of this pension money go into gold or can they already buy it?

The "minor corrections" on the European bourses are more than significant. And its a move down NOT following a period of gains and new all time highs. Monday, bloody monday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/japan_july_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/asx_gold_i_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980803/hong_kong__1.html

It's a shame, based on the past performance of gold during times of political uncertainty, that gold hasn't performed the way we would have liked it to. I will stand my ground in saying that gold is in a trading range of $285 to $295 for the time being and that the ONLY incentive for a breakout to the upside from this range is an act of war abroad or a recession here in the U.S. Even if Japan got their act together and even if the dollar weakens against foreign curriencies ALL that will result of this is a shift in the trading range to $295 to $305

Donald:
Think I owe you a reply re deflation/inflation: We ( US &EU ) have: Labour-costs, interest rates and the prices of raw-materials close to a min. They ( US ) have the business-cycle close to a max. Me ( EU ) have very high unemployment-rates ( among others due to that Euro-thing ) and a not yet booming economy. And we ( US&EU ) have lots of money out. I see asset-inflation, an overvalued USD and I smell changes in EU, politically ( a swing to the left in Germany this autumn? ) and in monetary policy. GB ( no EURO-member ) as an example what to come-but without the economic boom. Interseting times ahead.

PS. Probably you are right with deflation followed by modest inflation.

I view the Europen bouses as being just as overvalued as Wall Streeet. Anyone hoping to ride out the storm by parking money in European equities will take huge losses.

Japanese market will hold up the best over the next few months. But that ain't saying very much.

Fred@Vienna asked if people like myself can distinguish between Social Demoncracy and Communism. I can distinguish that these and all other ISMS have their own separate plans for me, my kin, and my property. I can also see that what they all have in common is a plan for me, my kin, and my property. I prefer to plan for myself, thank you.

In America the keystone of the government plan for me, my kin, and my property is Social Security Enumeration. Acknowledgement or conduct declaring your acceptance now or in the future of social security benefits places you under the jurisdiction of the whole plan legislated in Acts of Congress bestowing material benefits for those qualifying and penalties for prohibited conduct. If somebody says verbally or on a form, "what is your social security number ?" and you offer any answer other than I don't have one, then you have volunteered yourself into the Plan. If you support Social Security with your political opinion, you support the master-slave proposition with government and their creatures the corporations as the master.

And it is in part a global plan. The International Labor Organization was created in 1914; it is the only remaining entity from the league of Nations, and is the oldest entity in the United Nations organization.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980802/china_to_b_2.html

There is going to be plenty of deflation news today! API type.

http://www.weeklypost.com/980803/980803a.htm

It was not farmers who poured milk on the ground to try to force the price up. It was government. The first Act of FDR's National Socialist Platform ( a.k.a. The New Deal ) was federal regulation of agriculture. The government spilled milk to try to increase farm income for the benefit of the bankers. In other words, the bankers needed mortgage payments from the farmers. In addition, the government was desperate to increase the market value of farmland for its account because government's equitable interest in land had been pledged to the bankers for loans and the land's depressed resale value was less than the collateral value. Forcing an increase in farm income by creating agricultural shortages was the government's plan to increase the value of farm land.

Sharing and caring my ass. It's all about political power which flows from the power of the purse and the barrel of a hired gun. Whenever FEMA runs this country, it will likewise manage in the interest of government and there will be more spilled than milk.

I published something on Depression a couple of nights ago. There is Depression in Russia, Indonesia, etc. NOW. Depression is the consequence of the destruction of a currency. Sovereign default produces Depression. It did so following WWI and it is doing so today in the aftermath of the Cold War. No national government calls IMF for rescue until after default is in its face. The use of the phrase "bail out" in reference to currency boats that are already underwater misinforms. Every country under IMF tutelage today would have been out and out in default before the notion of lender of last resort.

The USG WENT BANKRUPT in the 20's and 30's. It has been reorganized in bankruptcy not once, but several times. It defaulted on its gold debt. The old dollar was destroyed and replaced by "emergency currency" ( a.k.a. FRN's which is just military scrip which civilians are allowed to use as legal tender by Act of Congress ) . The state of emergency continues and the government has never emerged from bankruptcy.

What is the greenback without the IMF ?

to all ..
Disney's 1st law says 283 but
we holding 286.3 .. Gold in yen is
up to 41,700 ! I think this whole
relationship could fall apart if
we can get above 41,800 and hold
it for a bit.
Hope so Gold strong in other
currencies too .. at last ..

The dollar is strong against all currencies, apparently ignoring bloopers admonishments about the balance of trade deficits.

Notice some posters have picked up on the huge amount of Japanese pension money that will be free to move out of Japan and probably into US debt instruments come 1/1/99 - if policies arn't changed to save the yen. This seems to have even brightened some's expectations for the US Stock Market as it should. Seems the final crash will be postponed now until March of '99.

Liking the thought that energy stocks and metal miners will bottom together and soar together. However, I think this is easy thinking. There are some oil drilling oil service companies now with PEs is single digits as we have some South African golds - Harmony and St. Helena for example.

Looks like the world is headed toward a recession that global leaders can do nothing about. ( "Global leaders" - what a misnomer ) . Stock markets will decline but in Europe and America by no more than 20% before springing back prior to the Japanese capital flows in January. Commodities will stay under preasure until the dollar weakens which won't be until the new year at the earliest though maybe then significantly.

Thinking I could take a long vacation on SOuth Pacific island and come back and these trends would still be intact.

Keep some powder dry - very good advice - great bargins to appear in metal mining and oil companys. though one has to be prepared for the timing of the groups recovery being different.

mozel
The post you referred was not addressed to you. I dont doubt a second you know the difference. Also was not my intention to trigger a discussion re assets and liabilities of political structures. Just wanted to react to the holy-water-sprinkler-phenomenon ( McCarthyphobia ) that occurs anytime here on kitco, when a a kind of self-defined "deviating" political behaviour occurs. Historically, there is a more pluralistic political environment here in Urope, at least it is possible to talk about political matters, attitudes and ideas without becoming tared and feathered as a commie. But you dont have to be one, to receive that treatment here on this site. It was my intention to reflect before public that kind of inadequate style of discussion, which is based upon ignorance rather than upon knowledge. I think one should at least have a minimum of an idea about the subject of his sympathy or antipathy. Thats all.

I was under the impression that the Japanese flows were free as of April 1st. I believe that to be the case as I remember seeing reports of Japanese switching investments to CCI for higher yield. I think whoever mentioned 1/99 has it mixed up with the EURO. If so there is no anticipation of future flows as the are already happening. If 1/1/99 is the date then why the hoopla on 4/1/98 "big Bang".

This guy sure is gloomy. Check out the orange background here. Looks like Halloween is arriving early this year. Or so this guy thinks. http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

my gold stocks didn't do too well today either. i contemplated selling out some and buying back when gold bottoms ( erm... whenever that happens ) but figured - "what the heck".

already sitting on so enough losses that it's not funny... waiting for the squillions to pour in...

still got a little more reserves to put in... soon...

when's that shakedown due, Old Gold? I wanna go out and buy some more! :- )

my gold stocks didn't do too well today either. i contemplated selling out some and buying back when gold bottoms ( erm... whenever that happens ) but figured - "what the heck".

already sitting on so enough losses that it's not funny... waiting for the squillions to pour in...

still got a little more reserves to put in... soon...

when's that shakedown due, Old Gold? I wanna go out and buy some more! :- )

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/u.html#u

The Big Bang is a two part affair as it concerns the investment choices of Japanese pension, postal savings, etc. I've been trying to get clarrification of this and I think I saw it mentioned in Another's writing. It is a huge sum - I think like 6 trillion dollars that suddenly will have foreign markets as an option.

As a group we KITCOITES should be looking for clarrification on this issue and know as much about it as we do leasing.

I'll look for more, now.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/markets_pr_1.html

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

http://www.monex.com/mt.html

The ember of Y2k UNCERTAINTY is glowing brightly in America's heartland.

Distributors of life's staples are complaining they cannot get product
fast enough that there is zero inventory that shelves are bare
that product supplies are out the door immediately to fill building
back-orders.

Public Concern about the MILLENNIUM BUG is amassing in the US Midwest.
Prudent people are stocking up on Long-Term STORABLE FOOD.

G-O-L-D__E-A-G-L-E staff made surveys which reveal that many, many, many
thousands are preparing NOW for the looming Y2K risk.

Needless to say, as the MILLENIUM BUG picks up moment via
the media and/or via word of mouth, public attention will begin to
focus on GOLD. Can you imagine what growing
demand from grass-root levels will have on the
price of the yellow metal, gold coins and
precious metals stocks?!
Can you imagine the devastation in Wall Street?!

The motto for 1999 may well be "PREPARE AND SURVIVE"

Ironically, the Amish will be the best prepared to face the
MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Full report at following URL. Before posting to the Internet delete
the extra letters "en" in word "golden"

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky080398.html

Gold up .20

I am happy to say James Dines has been spot-lighted by the
G O L D__E A G L E readership for his exemplary analysis in the month of JULY.

Please see URL:

By popular vote of all our readership the selected insightful article
"Let Your Profits Run" is located at following URL - it's necessary to delete extra letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/awards/0798.html

Let's see, what do we have on the agenda? Hmmmmnnnn, not much for silver. DOW doesn't look red hot, but not as bad as I thought. Wow! Strong day for Gold! What's going on? Goodbye Disney's law, hello rally!

silver is down nearly 8 cents, platinum is down a couple of bucks. Gold is clinging to 20 cents and the Dow may open down as much as 64 points...all from Bloomberg.

The question is this: do I sell my damaged gold stocks and wait for the bottom, or hang on and ride grimly into the storm?

"I don't think she's doing her job," Sen. Don Nickles, R-Okla.,
said in a floor speech. "I think she's more involved in more of
a cover-up of the president's activities or the White House's
activities than she is in enforcing the law." ( Subject - Reno )

----------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.reagan.com/HOTTopics.main/HotMike/document-8.3.1998.6.html

Well, I am often wrong so don't go by me, but I see gold doing Ok, perhaps even rallying a bit til the end of this week and then a very steep decline until near the end of the month. If it was me I would hang on a bit to see if there's much of a rally and then out. It looks to me like gold may waffle around a bit near it's bottom and then start climbing strongly in September peaking early November ( Hepcat might even get his 325, though I doubt it ) .

Thanks, that's about what I had planned. BBML

SELL HALF YOUR HOLDINGS TODAY AND BUY BEAR-X with the proceeds! THIS WAY YOU WILL BE HEDGED NO MATTER WHAT EVIL LURKS and will participate in the destruction of equity paper even if it takes down the gold stocks with it! At some point BOTH gold stocks and BEAR-X will RISE together as FEAR and PANIC and a COLLAPSING DOLLAR ( due to introduction of EURO ) cause the flight-to-safety crowd to once again flee to the safety of gold as THE ULTIMATE refuge from the storm!

PS--I Have followed my own advice and have watched BEAR-X rise about 7% off its most recent bottom around the middle of July! If the stock market collpases like I and others believe that it will, BEAR-X will SOAR with the eagles as stocks implode and the fund's shorts make a killing! In that case you will not only preserve your powder for the day when gold is back in favor, you'll be a frickin' powder factory!

Thinks that China will be forced by the falling YEN to devalue its currency to make its goods competitive with Japan's--the result will be self-reinforcing as the YEN is sold off even more and the dollar strengthens making US goods even less competitive and trashing corporate earnings and the markets! Time to be a BEAR!

Dow looks only down 20 - the S&P is only off 200, gold unchanged??

Dolar Index is so strong its not even being quoted on one service I use. On another its negating its recent weakness with a jump to 102 from current 101.50 in the offing. Money must be flowing into US stocks. Bond rallying into resistance, downtrend there will be broken with another 1/2 point rise.

I'll be real surprised to see gold hold up and close unchanged and silver be down more than a nickle. Of course we have learned there is no logic to the movements in silver other than that the price and stocks will converge at zero, barring a depression.

What's the symbol for Barr - X or what ever the name is of that short list.???? I'd take a swing a the short side around S&P 116.

BEAR-X is the symbol for The Prudent Bear Fund. It even has a pretty good web site.

Standby to be surprised.

On Monday August 3 14 of 15 Asian Stock markets were awash in RED ( only Singapore iked out a 1% gain. Hong Kong led the DOWNERS by plunging nearly 5%. In addition to losing more than 213 points on the Nikkei, The Yen plummeted to the near 146 - the low reached a few months ago.

The Asian Contagion continues.

Intra-Day Charts on all major Far-Eastern Stock Exchanges located at following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner/asian_id_charts.html

It is raining here. Fifty-something days without a drop. Twenty- something straight days over 100... ( 107 yesterday ) . The drought has ended, and now we must joyously embrace the beginning of the end of the Summer of our Discontent.

This tells of the blessed arrival of the long-awaited golden miracle. Alas brethren, plan now for the coming of the miracle.

Off to the aeroporte...my cares take flight. GO GOLDBUGS!!!

http://my.excite.com/news/r/980802/07/business-stocks

and donate money to the Democrats over the weekend ? ( big silly grin on Avalon's face ) .

in Dallas yesterday and will be 104 today. No rain for at least a million years ( or feels like it ) . Did you hear the joke about the old rancher who went four years without seeing rain. When it eventually rained, he fainted and they had to revive him with a bucket of dust !

is but a precursor of what is coming for the US buck once the EURO is introduced! The Canadian dollar crsis is about to become the US dollar crsis. DEC. GOLD now @ $290.70!! I believe the worst in gold is OVER! The fall in gold is yesterday's news and fully priced into today's gold market. Time to be BULLISH on GOLD and BEARISH on stocks! BIG CAP HEDGED MINERS WILL EVENTUALLY GOBBLE UP UNHEDGED JR. MINERS AS GOLD MINING IS FORCED TO RESTRUCTURE AND CONSOLIDATE AND IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS AND PRODUCTIVITY JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER INDUSTRY HAS HAD TO DO! If you invest in the Jr. mining stocks, moniter closely their cash position to make sure they can make it through this downturn--otherwise they may go belly-up or get swallowed up for pennies on the dollar, despite the quality of their reserves.

The stench from out east was so bad I had to stay indoors the whole time.

the weekend. The author is Gary Aldrich, a former FBI agent who was attached to the White House. He resigned in disgust at what was going on in the Clinton W.H. Fascinating book, get hold of it if you can. It's a "light read" type of book.

only the BIG, the STRONG, and the WELL-CAPITALIZED enterprises survive--it's the little, weak, under-capitalized enterprises that go bankrupt or wind up in the whale's belly!

Avalon: Your comment about the Texas heat and drought "...When it eventually rained, he fainted and they had to revive him with a
bucket of dust!" sums to mind the sad history of the early 1930s
in the US -

We all recall the America's Great Depression in the '30s was
particularly hard on Mid-Wesstern and Southern States - due to
the long drought which ravaged farmlands.

The plight and misery of poor were sung by Woody Guthrie.
His most popular album was DUST BOWL REFUGEE - which had a
song using the phrase "...When it eventually rained, he fainted and they had to revive him with a bucket of dust!"

It is indeed ironic that as the world inexorably slides into
another DEPRESSION, the Southwest is again being ravaged by
unprecedented heat and drought.

section re Golden Eagle International.

Also Page A11 story re Deutsche Bank "probably knew Nazi Gold's Source".

Have taken a small short position to hedge my larger long position for the ride down. Seeing a bottom @ 535ish. If she breaks below, we may be looking @ 520 sooner than we'd like.

Chances 50/50 that we will see OIL at $20/barrel BY THE END OF THE YEAR!
Says to hold on to your beaten-down oil and oil service stocks as IRAN now forces its ME neighbor producers to CUT BACK production. A 10% cut in production is all that is necessary to increase oil prices by 30%!! Where oil goes, can gold and silver be far behind?

oil prices postdate POG, but in this manipulated market, anything goes!

that US BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT could reach $300 BILLION THIS YEAR!!!

urging the Coward Erect to tell the truth...and they are running things.

Fitzgerald ? TIA

Fund manager currently being interviewed by Mark Haines on CNBC!

Here is an overview of Canadian gold mines that have closed and some views on Golds future.

Happy Simcoe Day.

Gold industry losing its glitter as prices plunge, mines close
Analysts fear worst may be yet to come if EU nations sell off

Monday, August 3, 1998
By Mark Mackinnon
The Globe and Mail

http://www.globeandmail.ca/docs/news/19980803/ROBFront/rgold.html

Here in the formerly beautiful, now DRY Ouachitas, we have had as many as if not more days w/out rain and above 100° than has OKC.
Yesterday 108°, day before 107, day before that 108. Today slated to be only 104°!
We had a cold front move thru yesterday afternoon and it dropped from 108 to 98 in less than a half hour.
Never before have we looked forward to temperatures in mid to low nineties as we do now.
Y'aal in OKC must live right!
RAIN.............

Rangy notes ..
nav = 182245/19.8 =9.2 Rd = $1.5

Siama produced 31,000 oz versus 25,000 last quarter
cash costs fell to 319 $/oz from $417 in March
quarter.

American's savings are in the market...sheesh!!! DANGER...DANGER... Will Robinson...DANGER...

AND the proceeds of their 125% home equity loans! : )

DOWN 25!

for the interesting paper written by FEMA's feeble leader...any color...

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/metcalf/980803.comgm.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/metcalf/980803.comgm.html

TICK -508! XAU UP .43!

DOWN 65!! Ma and Pa Kettle must have read their monthly mutual fund statement this morning! : )

is only one of many such articles, as CBs and lease rates are no longer
an effective strategy to drop the POG. Notice the old spectre of
CB dishoarding is mentioned again. I also noticed that the level
of gold backing for the EURO is now 15% instead of a "consensus of
10 to 15%" as stated by W. Duisenberg in late or june early July this
year. If that 15% figure is firm, and as of last week, this is
encouraging. I'm sure this wasn't the intent of the article though!

Make that 75! Make that 80! Do I hear 100? Driven down by the futures!

Stay with the BIG CAPS and raise 20-30% cash! I wonder what happens to this market if everyone follows his advice? : )

exactly that...me, no debt and I own nothing but cash, mining shares and physical...oh my darling...oh my darling...oh my darling paradigm...not!

rhody: could be you are right. I think the important bit of news is the reduction fron 275 to 260 as the estimated price of production. That is only $15 in about 18 months or so. I thought it would have been much lower by now as the higher price mines have closed.

Is Joe 6 pak in on this??

Anybody who says stay with the big caps now is totally out of touch.. They will follow the samll caps lower. First tradeable rally not likely until the big cap darlings have taken steep hits. The small caps probalby will hold up much better than the big caps over the next few weeks.

Gold holding up well considering the surging greenback. If this was to continue for a while -- at least a week -- we might avoid that final selling climax. Possible but not probable.

MEXICO AND VENEZUELA will follow. DOWN 90!

Notice also how the Globe refers to EU reserves as "only" 15%. What's happening with the euro is remarkable, even astounding: ANY percent reserves grants credence to gold as a monetary instrument -- something that has not been so since 1971.

STILL PREDICTING A "BLISTERING SUMMER RALLY"?

Dines vision of the current market: "You cannot create a man by standing a sheep on its hind legs. Yet by standing a flock of sheep in that position you can create a crowd of men."

Mr. Dines is many signs heralding a bad time for the stock markets - but
being Real Estate.

Real estate is beginning to worry us. A few years ago, your editor returned from a lecture in Hong Kong amazed that paltry one-bedroom apartments were renting for $20,000 ( US ) per month, which we thought was untenable and would end in a real-estate crash, a TDL prediction that began to come true after our 1997 Annual Forecast Issue predicted "Hong Kong is in danger of beginning a Major decline around the summer of 1997." Now, again, rentals in New York and also here in San Francisco are approaching the $20,000/monthly level, as people with high current incomes assuming good times will last forever set themselves up for a mighty fall. We are looking for a Major real-estate bear market in America starting around 1999.

Dines insightful and incisive report - albeit grim - may be seen in its entirety at following URL - it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/dines080398.html

they have allowed lawyers into every aspect of their lives...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-08/03/124l-080398-idx.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-08/03/124l-080398-idx.html

Bank hold anything as foolish as gold to back a national currency, when
one can the vaults with United States Dollars. Although USD are getting
pretty expensive right now, so it's getting difficult to buy more, but
the rising price is only a sign of quality!

Tongue now out of ceek: The world is a perverse place.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^MTMS&d=t

amidst the falls in Asian markets, Europe and now the Americas, Russia seems to be up 26%!!??

anyone got the bead on the story?

hiding in the moon

crashes & charts
and endless choruses

in some dis-harmony of tune

valuable charts, via lowrisk.com

is there
a stock-market bear
brewing
in the next wind's
breath
of fresh air

this soon

http://www.lowrisk.com/top.htm
http://www.lowrisk.com/djia100year.htm

Bought a Sept Silver at 5.42, no slipage on the fill a good sign, bought a Sept SnP 117.75, no slipage there either

D.C. as they threaten these countries with various behind closed doors dangers...thats my bead on it...

As way of yen equals gold, so might way of dollar equal Clinton?

Good morning! Where did you place your stop? Thanks.

Your posts have had a rather sobering effect lately,have you had a dispute with Cuervo central?

Maybe Yelstin just had a heart attack! Whatever...it hasn't seemed to hit the Templeton Russia Fund yet--TRF DOWN 1 7/8 to 20 3/4! RNE DOWN about a buck as well! Must be one of those dang Y2K computer glitches! : )

To all bears: the trend is now our friend ---

For long-time bears, the U.S. stock market's long and arduous
ride to historic highs has been nothing short of frustrating.
Many a trader, no doubt, experienced the anguish many times
over of being stopped out of a short sale over the past couple
of years due to the market's seemingly unstoppable upward bias.

.and the bulls will likewise
soon find themselves freezing to death in the arctic frost
accompanying this changing climate. And that change is already
beginning.


Analyst Droke emphatically states, "This Dow Theory confirmation serves
as our first indicator that the bear is among us."

Bull Killer Droke also foresees "Below 8600 it is all air until the next
closest support level at approximately 7700."

His entire report at following URL - per custom it's necessary to delete
The extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting it to the
Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke080398.html

Looks like the DOW will end a little lower on the day, close to even. Gold a little up. Too early to tell for silver.

Farfel wrote:

"Look over all my posts on K-2 from the beginning. You will see that I avoided ad hominem comments about this irritant until he ventured onto this forum and slung mud in my face."

Sensitive thoughts and copying poetry will not erase your stain. Telling old jokes will not do it either. You just claimed to Bart that you tried. Lets look at how you tried. This is from just yesterday before I, or RJ ever posted anything to you. This is your idea of an olive branch, of a new start. You smell like the same rotting racist fish you always were

"When any self-anointed "Trust Me" gold expert explains that European gold sales will continue until 1999, then you must say, "Yowsah, Massa, whatever you say, suh. Now I guess I be goin to sells all my gold now, Massa, thas wha i be doin, OK?" Again, you must never question where those gold sales ( if they truly exist ) are directed and must NEVER suppose that the odds favor they are intra-bank sales."

Now that does sound very racist, doesnt it? You wrote that didnt you?

Also you wrote

"Yet, K-2 remains a graveyard...that's because K-1 has evolved into some exclusive, hallowed club sanctioned and blessed by the gold shorts who fashion the goldbug view on "the way things really work" in the metals markets"

"Because the various self-appointed sheriffs on K-1 get really pissed off by the info posted on those two great sites."

"As it turns out, I had a very busy July so my excommunication from K-1 was quite beneficial."

( So this is how bad you feel about how you acted, "quite beneficial"? )

"...my contrived rant was "over the top." I simply got tired of being an incessant target of abuse and felt my little impression of RJ going berserk would resonate with K-1. For those who doubt the rant was contrived, then rest assured I do not offer "Thank You's" at the end of genuine explosions of anger."

Actually farfel, you ALWAYS says Thank You when you are angry. Havent you noticed?

You dont get it, do you? Nobody likes you. Because of how you act, and what you say.

Kneeslappers farfel. Are you going to put out a book?

Jonesy - 539.5

arm-twisting its "friends" to sell gold. Canada, Australia, Argentina
have all been suckered or coerced. Canada was cashed out 80% by
Mulroney, just before the S*B left Canada to take a position as
director of Barrick Gold, with his pal Geo Bush as "consultant".

And the powers that be keep saying gold is a has-been as a monetary
asset. What is the difference between perversity and deceit?

Tight. Still holding any short positions?

morning on the Island that Is Long now that the Clintler stench has left. I have not ceased but rather through deeper trances realized that all the education, facts and optimism in the universe will not stop people from being their own worst enemies.

Will the Y2K issues cause a severe recession? Absolutely. Will the Y2K issues cause a global depression? Perhaps.

But the most important question is: What should YOU do about it? The impact to the economy of these issues will provide opportunities for great investments, and awful investments.

If anyone really believes that we'll all go back to living like "cave-men" in eighteen months, they should be spending ALL of their time learning how to survive in the wild, rather than stockpling food that will last only a year or two. If things really get that bad, what good is gold? Shouldn't you be investing in guns and farm equipment?

We'll ALWAYS have a few nuts that march around saying that "The End of the World Is Near!" In the 1940's, people were afraid of the Nazi's and the Japanese. In the 1950's and 1960's, it was the atomic war scare. In the 1970's, it was the Energy Crisis.

But let's not go far with this issue. Even if some of our banks fail, our electricity and phone services are interrupted, and many companies go out of business, this DOES NOT mean that we'll be living like "Cave-Men" in the next eighteen months.

But this DOES mean that we will have some GREAT OPPORTUNITIES for investments! When the well-known brown stuff begins to hit the fan, people will look for more "stable" investments, like gold!

Technology stocks ( especially the big ones like Microsoft ) are going to be absolutely worthless. They'll spend all of their earnings ( and more ) defending thousands of lawsuits! They were ( and still are ) selling products with Y2K defects! What if you were on a jury that was asked to decide a case against a company that was selling products with these defects in 1998?

Please note, decision for 15% gold reserve took place on July 8, 1998.
Here an excerpt of W.Duisenberg speech:
...The Governing Council furthermore agreed that this initial transfer should be in gold in an amount equivalent to 15% of the sum I have just mentioned, with the remaining 85% being transferred in foreign currency assets. I should stress that the decision on the percentage of gold to be transferred to the ECB will have no implications for the consolidated gold holdings of the ESCB....
If you are interested to read all about the Euro, you can see it at:
http://www.ecb.int/

post is when Camdesuss slept with my dog...he lied when he said he was disease free and it was perverse. It is perverse that the deceipt is so readily accepted as the truth...quite right...and I have kicked my dog more than once for such lack of clarity...

So should the people of the countries you mentioned treat the people they elected...except in this example they should vote them into oblivion...

doubles, that 15% becomes 30% and the USD is dead as a world reserve
currency. IMHO

Rhody

i'd not venture a risk
or a guess
as to russia's current swing
to the up-side

other-than
a 'last-gasp'
of:
"every thing's ok"
wishful thinking

as, 'indian-summer' indulged
Russia is perhaps the

Perhaps, Russia is indeed -
the fulcrum-point
and epi-center

of, for, & against
our world

where east & west
meet

in dark confusion
and
painful creation
and
drubbing beat


The real question, is:
Is 'she-russia'
the epi-center of civilization
disintegrating

into the next
creating
organizing
beat

like a fuse burning
neither quick
nor neat

a month, or so, ago,
there was the following post - referenced,
at kitco .....:: )

Mr. Steve Perth offered ,
about a month ago,
an important kitco post,
regards Russia's
ebb & flow.

( search kitco,
for this past post,
and valuable as it may be,
on Russia's
possibility. )

This previous post's entry/excerpt:

"....
Fri Jul 10 1998 20:48
Steve - Perth__A
( More on Russia & Thailand ( apologies for sources bias ) )
ID#28417

-SOME SIGNS OF SANITY IN THE MIDST OF A GLOBAL CRISIS-
..."

Jonesy - Short Dec Gold from 299

Date: Fri Jul 10 1998 20:48
Steve - Perth__A ( More on Russia & Thailand ( apologies for source bias ) ) ID#284170:
Copyright  1998 Steve - Perth__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
- SOME SIGNS OF SANITY IN THE MIDST OF A GLOBAL CRISIS -

July 9, 1998

Interviewer: Tony Papert Guest: Nancy Spannaus

TONY PAPERT: Welcome to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, it's July 9, 1998, and with
me in the studio is Nancy Spannaus, the editor of New Federalist, and a board member of
EIR magazine. Hi, Nancy.

NANCY SPANNAUS: Hi.

EIR: Nancy, the so-called Asia economic crisis began almost exactly one year ago. Over
that year, and even before, Lyndon LaRouche and EIR were saying that it was simply the
opening phase of a world systemic breakdown crisis, unless certain measures were taken.
During the same period, our American television and media have said nothing of the sort,
haven't even breathed a whisper of it, until the past several weeks, when there's been a
change. Could you tell us about that?

NANCY SPANNAUS: Sure. What happened is that about the middle of June, the U.S.
media and some leading spokesmen in the financial establishment of the United States, or the
publicist layer of the financial establishment, began to come out and say the kind of things that
were previously only being said in the European press, or the Indonesian press, or the
Chinese press, about the actual danger of the Asian, so-called Asian financial crisis imploding
the entire world. This has been the case since the break that occurred back in October of
1997; it's been well recognized as such all over the financial establishment. There've been
non-stop bankers' meetings, starting in December of last year, but very little has actually
trickled out to the U.S. public.

And people here have just been fed with delusion that the stock market boom's going to go
on forever, higher and higher; they should take out money on their credit cards to bet more
on the market. They should vanquish their pensions in order to do that, and so forth and so
on. So it's been insane, and people like Greenspan, and others, have been trying to manage
everything, even though it's inherently unmanagable, without a New Bretton Woods
approach, which Mr. LaRouche has been pushing, and we at EIR and in the LaRouche
movement have been agitating about.

So, starting in the middle of June, however, when the Asia crisis had hit a second phase, and
it was beginning to move heavily into the Russia and Brazil situations -- as LaRouche had
projected -- we began to see some signs of sanity. And I think there are some interesting
things that should be brought to our listeners' attention.

For example, at an Economic Strategy Institute conference in Washington on June 29, Clyde
Prestowitz, who's known for Japan-bashing -- he's an economic guru -- actually made some
very cogent statements about the crisis.

[excerpts from Prestowitz on Asia crisis being a world crisis, and the need for Japan to
suspend the Big Bang.]

He's not the only one. Before that, there was Roger Altman, who was a Treasury official in
the Clinton administration, and a very well-connected investment banker, close to the Rubin
circles, and so forth. And he wrote an oped in the International Herald Tribune and the L.A.
Times, which actually said, ``Those who think that the mighty United States is immune to
such forces of financial collapse, are wrong. This is a dangerous moment.''

This kind of thing has not been said to the American people, and, of course, this wasn't said
officially, but it was put out.

And then you've had even someone from the Federal Reserve bureaucracy, out there in
Minneapolis, and those of our viewers who actually subscribe to EIR will have seen an
interview by a Mr. Rolnick, which also details the fact that we're in a serious, systemic
financial crisis.

EIR: Thank you very much.....

[Commercial break]

- Russia is the Epicenter of the Crisis -

EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, and with me is New Federalist
editor Nancy Spannaus.

Nancy, within the past few days, Russia has become at least the public center of attention in
this economic crash, with imminent fears of government default, and actual turmoil and chaos
in Russia. What's going on there?

NANCY SPANNAUS: Russia is the epicenter of the world systemic crisis right now, and
obviously, the second largest nuclear power on this planet going into a total breakdown --
which is what is threatened, not just a financial breakdown, but a social breakdown,
potentially, military action, potentially, changes in government, or just total chaos could be
breaking there.

The path Russia has been on under the IMF, from 1990 forward, has been way up on the
stock markets, and way down in living standards and production. And now, the bubble part
of it -- the stock market part -- has begun to collapse because of the hot money-flows out of
Asia, looking for places that might be safe. It's a futile effort, but that's what's actually
happening. So what was very hot last fall, is in total collapse right now.

The IMF is in there, desperate to try to save the situation. But the measures that they're
proposing to save the situation -- measures which unfortunately have been adopted by the
Yeltsin government, and Kiriyenko and forth -- are actually the measures which created the
crisis in the first place. Increased tax collection, which is impossible under conditions where
factories are shutting down, and people have no wages. And, selling off vast sections of the
Russian wealth, particularly in the oil companies, the gas companies, looting the place totally
insanely.

So, it's a very serious situation. The latest is that the IMF has promised $10 to $15 billion...

EIR: Which they don't have.

NANCY SPANNAUS: ...to Russia. They don't have it. Russia owes, has to refinance at
least $1 billion a week. So, if you look, here we are. What are we in? We're in the middle of
1998. If they were to get $15 billion, it would last them ... 15 weeks! Right? And the IMF
doesn't even have, and the U.S. Congress has not passed an increased appropriation to this
bill, and quite likely will not. And everybody is hanging on tenterhooks.

Particularly Europe, because about $75 billion is at stake from European banks having lent
into Russia. But, of course, this is the Eurasian landmass, this is a major geopolitical center in
the world, and when it blows, it will have impact on absolutely everybody in that area.

So, it's a very dangerous situation. The good news is that there are signs of an emerging
alternate leadership to the International Monetary Fund and Yeltsin there. Yeltsin forces and
those behind him are aware of it. I think that's what's behind the mysterious murder of a
leading retired military man, Lev Rokhlin, that happened on July 3. This was a very
suspicious story to all Russians. Because it seemed as though the police knew who confessed
before they could have investigated more than one whit! They claimed that the man's wife
shot him at 4 in the morning. There was no evidence to that effect. In fact, the man's daughter
said the wife was forced to confess. So, this is a man who had threatened to lead the military
in political strikes -- not a coup -- but political activity to topple Yeltsin, because of the
hideous conditions of military men and former military men, under the conditions of IMF
austerity.

So, that's happening. There are strikes, particularly among the coal mining, the strategic
coal-mining sector. This is an area where the coal miners have cut off the Trans-Siberian
Railroad for a number of days -- they had done it a number of months back -- they are doing
it again. They've been joined by teachers, by doctors, by defense workers in Moscow,
they're occupying Red Square. And this is a situation which could blow in any number of
ways, and obviously, the Clinton administration, anybody who's thinking in world financial
circles, is desperate to cover it over. Clinton has promised to go there -- that was probably a
confidence-building measure in a certain sense. Yet, unless people honestly say, as some of
the opposition is, in Russia, that this is a systemic crisis, that we have to go back to
production, that we have to clamp down on speculation, that we need great projects, then
this is going to devolve. And you can rapidly see Russia becoming like Albania, becoming
like Africa in terms of civilizational collapse, and that having a spillover effect on a global
scale.

EIR: Or Albania with nuclear weapons, as Helga LaRouche has said.

NANCY SPANNAUS: Yes, Albania with nuclear weapons. It's a very frightening thought,
to see what this could mean for the world's future.

[Commercial break]

EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, and with us is Nancy Spannaus, the
editor of New Federalist newspaper. We were talking about the world economic crisis, also
called the Asia economic crisis. Nancy, in the location where this crisis first broke in July of
1997, in Thailand, there have been recent quite striking developments. Could you tell us
about them?

- Kra Canal on the Table Again in Thailand -

NANCY SPANNAUS: Yes. I'm particularly impressed by the fact that the approach of the
Thais is not just an anti-IMF approach. That is also very important. The Thais have a strong
anti-colonial tradition, and over the past six months, in particular, increasingly people have
begun to mobilize -- all the way up to the King, in effect -- to say, IMF austerity, increased
taxes, increased prices for imports and so forth, these things are killing us, and we need to
free ourselves of what's effectively IMF colonialism. They formed a grouping called the "Free
Thai" movement, in effect.

But just at the beginning of July, we got a report in the English-language major newspaper in
Bangkok, called The Nation, that there had been an additional element added to the
mobilization of the Thais, which was a conference of academics, which discussed
re-instituting the Kra Canal project.

Now, probably there aren't a lot of our listeners who remember the Kra Canal, but Mr.
LaRouche and our movement first began talking about this back in 1983 -- at least then,
maybe before -- as one of the several major infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific Basin,
that was required in order to turn this area into a developed, developing section of the world
economy, to improve transportation lines, and transportation efficiency, to use these
infrastructure projects...

What the Kra Canal would do, is to cut through the Isthmus of Kra, which is the southern
part of Thailand. And it would mean that ships that now go through a whole number of
islands, would be able to cut, I think a 1000 miles, or more than that -- you may remember
-- off the trip, and it would also be the occasion to be able to develop that part of Thailand.
You'd have a canal, which could have cities, and everything that goes with cities, in terms of
bringing people out of poverty, and rubber plantations, or whatever they have there at the
moment.

But what was important about what these academics said, was not just, we need a project,
and the fact that it was the right project. But was that the reason for such an infrastructure
project is to get out of an economic depression. Now, those who have seen Mr. LaRouche's
New Bretton Woods speech, for example, from March 18 of this year, will recall that he
said there are three elements required to get out of this civilizational crisis. You need to
recognize it as a systemic financial crisis; you need to take revolutionary measures in order to
actually change the premises of economic behavior entirely -- go to national banking,
eliminate speculation in currencies, and so forth and so on; but thirdly, you need forced draft
economic development along the lines that Franklin Delano Roosevelt actually carried out
with the TVA project, and other such projects -- which were the model for the world in the
post-World War II period.

So this is what the academics said. They said-- and when I say academics, many Americans
will think that it's some kind of fruitloop somewhere. But in these developing nations, as in
our nation when it was young, academics are very connected with the military, with industrial
planners, with those who are concerned with building the nation through infrastructure, and
that's what these academics were involved in. In fact, we have good reason to believe that
EIR's writings were actually part of the thinking that went into the proposal that we need the
Kra Canal -- this is the approach to build out of the depression, this will bring in capital, but
not in order to loot our population, but capital in order to do something productive,
long-term capital.

And that this approach will contribute to the integration of the region. It will actually connect,
as some of these people understand, with the Eurasian Land-Bridge proposal that Mr. and
Mrs. LaRouche have been proposing as a world development project, required to get the
world out of depression. And they are anxious to mobilize people to a different approach
from the IMF. As many people may or may not know -- it's actually done it here in the
United States for years -- is come in and say, ``In order to survive under these conditions of
crisis, you have to cut all your infrastructure projects.'' They forced Indonesia to do that; I
think Malaysia, despite its desire not to do so, was forced to cancel a bridge project, which
was part of the Eurasian Land-Bridge. But this approach has to be dumped, and the Thais
are showing some real leadership on that question.

[Commercial break]

EIR: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert. With me is Nancy Spannaus, the
editor of New Federalist and a board member of EIR magazine.

Nancy, the General Motors strike continues to expand. It now involves more than 160,000
workers. What does it mean?

- GM Strike vs. Globaloney -

NANCY SPANNAUS: What we're dealing with here, is a prototypical conflict over the
issue of globalization of the world economy. GM is the only one of the three major auto
companies that has maintained a certain amount of in-house capability for vertically integrated
production of its autos. Therefore, as opposed to setting up, to outsourcing, all of its small
parts to Third World countries, in order to get them at a tenth of the cost, it has maintained
plants in places like Flint, Michigan, where this strike actually began, that include the whole
gamut. And right now, because they are in a situation where demand for cars is shrinking, the
financial regimen demands that they cut costs. So, if they stay within the rules of the game of
the globalized economy, GM is really being pushed to do what Ford and Chrysler have done
before. Which is to downsize, to lay off a lot of workers, to shut down a lot of plants, and to
move a good deal more of their production -- not that they don't already have substantial
production in Mexico, which they do -- but to move a good deal more of it offshore, which
would mean the destruction, even more definitively, of what remains of the auto industry in
Flint, Michigan, and other parts of the American Midwest in particular.

Now, that's from the company side. From the union side, they understand this as well,
because they are being asked to sign on to working conditions that are absolutely miserable.
They are expecting to lose jobs and they are demanding job security. But they are in a sense,
in a losing battle to defend themselves, because it's the logic of this globalized financial system
which is demanding that GM treat their workers like slave-laborers.

So, it's a real standoff here. What's often said in the press is, well, GM's losing a lot of
money. I don't think that's the operative point here. GM may figure into losing a lot of money
just in order to figure out how they're going to restructure, in order to try to survive in a
down-sized world.

So, what really has to be addressed by the union, by anyone in GM who's still concerned
about production, as opposed to making profits, and by people throughout the United
States, other workers, is that here you have a test case of an industry which is dying. The
globalizing economy says, effectively, these kinds of manufacturing industries are not going to
exist in the 21st century. And the only way to approach it, is to say: junk the globalization
system, and go back to a system which pours credit into producing, and at decent wages.
Provides education, builds up these plants again. And that requires, can only be done, if we
have a New Bretton Woods approach, which means bankruptcy reorganization for the old
debt, and setting up a basis where companies that want to produce on the long term, can
actually get the credit to be able to do it.

EIR: National economy, instead of global economy.

Return to Kitco Homepage

imho, i doubt that russia represents the fulcrum of east and west.

it remains however, an interesting place - the west can't decide what to do with it politically and financially ... with pitiful attempts by the IMF to restore stability.

Russia also retains considerable military might ( oh, can you imagine those nukes... ) , though the place of this piece of the jigsaw in the larger picture still eludes me.


the numbers are starting to smell fishy again. *sniff* *sniff*

i sense something sinister on the horizon...


when are they gonna force the Ag price down so I can buy my paperweights to rival RJ's?

Human beings are natually perverse, as in doing the opposite of
reasonable. Like Buying the DOW at 9000 instead of 4000, or buying gold
at 400 instead of 280. This is normal.

That trick with your dog had to be learned. THAT'S deviant.

Gold bugs are the least perverse people I know. Since this is learned
behavior, this is also deviant. It's just not sexual.

My condolences to your dog.

Tongue now removed from cheek.

Rhody

Sept'98 Corn is now at $2.14/BU. At these levels, all the Farmers in the USA will be broke come January'99. No one makes money on $2 corn unless you sold it short....these are desperate times for the heart lands of our country.

Nothing personal - PEI works for you, so you are a satisfied customer. Great. I also give him full credit for his work on world capital flows and cycles ( if only some of our politicians could learn something about how their policies affect the economy ) .

I'm just not a big fan of Armstrong, his hype, or any guru who boasts that he has "really" figured out the markets ( as his webpage says he has )

The other side of the story -

I heard Armstrong speak at a local financial conference ( free tix from broker ) . Lots of hype. People took every word he said as though it was inspired from God. In hindsight, it turns out the local mutual fund guy did better at forecasting the $$, interest rates, gold, and stocks ( 4 for 4 ) . Marty was only 1 for 4. Yet, next year, another appearance, and
more hype about his great stock forecast ( gee, sorry about the wrong predictions - guess we have to adjust the thermodynamic equation a little for next year ) .

-about forecasting the stock top 4 years ago-
I don't think so. Is that the same graph that shows stocks, interest rates, and commodities all rising together into 1998.65?
From my understanding, his economic confidence model gives a major turning point around every 4 years ( minor ones every year ) . At these points, what is hot goes to naught, and what is not becomes hot. Emperically, this makes sense - money flows from hot to cold investments in cycles ( there's that thermodynamics again! ) . So if gold had
made a new low in July, it would be a candidate for turning around ( once confirmed ) . It could be gold, grains, oil, currencies, etc. This time, stocks made a high, so they might turn - might turn -
He is still waiting for confirmation - I think a Dow yearly close under 8000 or so. Just 2 months ago, he was saying that if new highs are not in July, then the high would be in April and a zig-zag pattern could develop until the next turning point. Of course, he adds that if new highs are made after July, then we have to wait until 1999 for the turn ( no kidding ) .
This is a firm forecast - from 4 years ago?
A skeptic might suggest that with a turning point every year, there is bound to be something happening in our crazy world that could be associated with a turning point in hindsight - one year the Peso crisis, last year it was the Asian crisis, next year the Euro -
who knows?

-PEI funds
The Aussie PEI fund made 31% per year over last 3 years. I'm not impressed. This is futures trading here - not stocks. Even a no-brain, "stupid" trendfollowing system that is only 25% accurate using a basket of commodities can make more than 50% per year - with good money management ( eg. the Turtle traders still in business ) . Others use Gann,
Elliott, or fundamentals to get better results consistently ( check Futures mag ) . I personally know 1 spread trader who has doubled his money in a year a few times in his 20 + years of trading - using only trendlines and seasonality - and good money mgt.

I'm glad PEI works for you. Continued success. It probably is better than most advisory services - but this is not saying much.

**We now return to our regular programming of Gold, Y2K, and Clinton sexcapades**

Re Funds for Bears: David Tice runs the Prudent Bear Fund ( Sym=BEARX )
Tice and his BEARX fund held a lot of shorts that I would not have shorted such as YAHOO during the big internet runup, many of the big caps, and IBM which many will hold until hell freezes over. He will be right when the bear really gets going ( SOON ) , but has hurt performance for the last year or so. RYDEX Ursa ( RYURX ) is the purer play. J. White, Schwab, Fidelity and other discount brokerages area convenient way to play. BEARX is a "No Fee" transaction for some, must hold 90 days or will be charged fee to sell. Investigate Fee structures. Charts follow:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=BEARX&d=1ys
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RYURX&d=3ms 3 months, change charts for apples to apples. Heading in Yahoo chart should say URSA.
Repeat of pre-Midnite post:FWIW department: C Hooper of the Mutual Fund Strategist issued a sell signal for Monday August 3, 1998. This means sell Nova ( not buy Ursa yet ) . He uses Rydex Nova Fund and Rydex Ursa as his market timing vehcles. He kinda messed up on the last signal, as was already short ( Rydex Ursa ) , but went long during the last rally.
Nevertheless, ahead 'bout 10% for the year right now. Better'n a lot of stocks ( and Gold ) at this point! ( BTW- Gold has been a sell for a while )

Best Regards; Mtn Bear

Jonesy - Reversed SIU98 at 541, reversed SPU98 at 1123, close stops

Some tech stocks will fare well in the Y2K storm. Computers aren't going to go away and older software will be replaced as it fails. The future in commercial sortware ( servers, networks, etc. ) is most likely Linux. Microsoft will fade fast after 2000-2001. Windows will still be the most widely used operating system but Microsoft's development efforts, and therefore its dominance, will fade. Linux will also usher in a new age ( Oh, god, did I use that term? ) of licensing arrangements that will ease costs and make software development easier. For more on Linux:

http://www.redhat.com/

See also:

http://www.caldera.com/

as to attorney/client privilege! BC just can't seem to face the American people and tell 'em he's been living a lie his whole lifetime! Poor Chelsea! Wonder what she must think of her father's presidential leg ass y?

This is not looking good. Not good at all.

Very good internal analysis of the Dow etc. That momentum indicator points out the divergence that gives a very good signal. I wonder what he uses to get the momentum indicator. Thanx, Charlie

what BC did to Paula, Kathleen and Monica. he'd be pressing Congress for
chemical castration of every male over the age of 12 right now!

to avoid civil unrest. Market now discounting a Chinese devaluation which
will only exacerbate the US balance of trade deficit and reduce American competitiveness and result in lower earnings and a falling stock market. US needs to slow down. China needs to speed up. Result will be bad for US equities.

News just out from CNBC that Berkshire Hathaway ( aka Warren Buffett ) liquidated the majority of his long-term bond position for an extraordinary gain.

All these mutual fund holders loading up on bonds ( bought from Buffett ) at the advice of their brokerages? Ooops!

Hmmmm? I guess there is at least one billionaire who is putting more faith in silver than in bonds right now.

I guess there is at least one billionaire who must believe we are NOT entering a deflationary spiral.

Remember...watch the billionaires. Watch where their money is flowing.

Stagflation....coming to visit America soon.

Gold and silver will soar.

Thanks.

F*

.. Disneys law was dead

41250/145.45 = 283.6
we were 284 last I looked ..

Im afraid we're stuck with it!
Until we break 41800 yen ( if we
ever do )

DROOY down 5/32 on almost 500,000 shares. Someone is bailing out!

What's the next contract out from Aug? TIA Charlie

Latest forecast at Noesis:

http://www.oil-gasoline.com

administration are about to come home to roost...watch, learn and make sure that your politicians kids go to the battle field FIRST...and don't forget that Harley Davidson has a huge munitions plant to go along with all those fine motorcyles...

...

According to CNBC, Berkshire Hathaway ( aka Warren Buffett ) eliminated its ENTIRE long term treasury holdings.

WOW!!!

One billionaire no longer thinks bonds are THE flight to safety.

OK.

Thanks.

F*

Well, I'm tired of seeing nothing happen. Mondays are so tedious. Just to be droll I think I'll go dwonstairs and give, oh, the silver lever a tug.

And its 123 what are we investing for, dont ask me I dont give a damn,

As long as Clinton fesses up bout slammin his ham

What a great series of posts re Armstrong. Good points on both sides.
I have attended many financial conferences where he has spoken, his global economic perspective is very good however, I don't think we will see $3.00 silver.

Whoa. Targets -- price, or time?

Dines must be bearish on gold if he thinks U. S. real estate is in for a hit. The currency chaos hasn't helped gold either.

I am sitting here pondering what it will be like in those last hours leading up to the new millenium. I remember reading a book about what it was like last time we rolled over milleniums.
( 999-1000 ) The book stated that veeryone from near and far gathered at the nearest church. It was a time of great peace as brother forgave brother and neighbor forgave neighbor due to the belief that the end of the world was at hand. As nightime fell and the midnight hour approached mens hearts began felling them. The book stated that people became crazy due to fear. As I read this, I remember thinking that there was no way that it will be like that this time around. That people back then were more superstitious and gullable than they are now.

As Y2K approaches and everyone begins to understand the possible implications I am beginning to wonder how we will react. Panic is not yet in sight but it surely will show.

A logical sequence of emotions seems to be.
1. Denial - we are here
2. Shock - Dan Rather say prepare
3. Acceptance - after the shock
4. Fear/Panic - Sept - Dec 1999
5. Calming - the last few days or weeks of 1999

I would be looking for a huge run on gold about the shock time. Question is, when will Dan say prepare.

Looks like we are still on course for that selling climax. But no mattter how sharply POG and XAU drop, a selling climax rewuires huge volume and a reversal. As long as volume remains low, no lasting reversal is possible.

doing. That was, until I read Aldrich's book. It seems that Chelsea
also referred to the Secret Service as "personal, trained pigs". ( Page 90 of the book ) . These are the men and women assigned to protect her !

Wonder where she gets it from ?

Agree with you about the stench, but maybe if you spoke with him you could do some good?

Gold industry losing its glitter as prices plunge, mines close

Analysts fear worst may be yet to come if EU nations sell off

Monday, August 3, 1998
By Mark Mackinnon
The Globe and Mail

Gary Autet promised himself he'd never work in a uranium mine. A career gold miner, he felt the money
wasn't worth the health risks posed by the unavoidable exposure to radiation.

For more than 20 years he kept that promise to himself -- until this year. In January, the weakest gold
prices in 18 years closed Echo Bay Mines Ltd.'s Lupin gold mine in the Northwest Territories,
putting Mr. Autet and 500 others out of work.

Five months later, the Ponoka, Alta., resident finds himself working to sink a shaft at a uranium mine
near McArthur River in northern Saskatchewan. For the first time in his career, he can't find a job in the
gold industry. And he isn't alone.

"There's no one I know who's working in gold right now," he said, listing off where some of his
co-workers at Lupin ended up: construction, selling used cars, mining uranium. "I always figured that if
I had to work uranium over gold, I may as well quit mining, but that's the way jobs are right now."

It's a grim picture for those in the gold industry and one that doesn't look likely to improve any time
soon. The price of the yellow metal has staged a mild recovery from the pit of $278 ( U.S. ) an ounce it
hit in January. But it has continued to stumble along since then in the $290 and $310 range -- this year
trading below the psychologically significant $300 mark more often than not. Friday it closed at
$286.30.

It's a price that has taken its toll on the Canadian gold mining industry. Last year, Royal Oak Mines
Inc. of Kirkland, Wash., closed its Colomac gold mine in the Northwest Territories and the Hope
Brook mine in Newfoundland at a combined cost of more than 500 jobs. The company followed that by
laying off more workers at its Giant mine near Yellowknife and mining only higher-grade ore in an
attempt to reduce costs.

The list of casualties goes on. Englewood, Colo.-based Echo Bay closed Lupin in January. Vancouver's
Miramar Mining Corp. laid off 130 people at its Con mine near Yellowknife. Placer Dome Inc. of
Vancouver is closing its Detour Lake mine in Northern Ontario next year. Last September, Toronto's
Barrick Gold Corp. announced it was closing five of its 10 mines.

Of 63 gold mines in Canada operating at the beginning of 1997, when gold was trading around $370,
no less than 14 have closed. Exploration for new mines, in many cases, has also ground to a halt.

And more bad news could follow if the current gold price persists. Royal Oak told one newspaper earlier
this year that the life of the Giant mine would be measured in "months not years," if low gold prices
persisted, although the company now says it has no plans to close the mine. Echo Bay executives say
their company may go under if a $300 gold price is a long-term reality.

Analysts -- even many onetime "gold bugs" who believed the commodity would never fall as far as it has
-- aren't optimistic that the price will rebound in the near future. "If there's a significant move coming for
the gold price from where it is, it's going to be down rather than up," said Peter Ward, a gold analyst
with Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. Just last September, he was predicting the price would hold in
the $330 range for 1998.

Why the pessimism these days? Primarily because gold seems to be losing its traditional role as a hedge
against inflation. Several countries have created a selection of inflation-indexed bonds, which -- unlike
gold -- are guaranteed to earn interest, no matter what the inflation rate is. The strength of the U.S.
dollar has also caused problems for gold and has emerged as the currency hitch of choice.

Complicating matters, countries around the world have started selling gold to meet budgetary targets,
and the Asian financial crisis has reduced demand in an area where previously it was strong.

And there are more storm clouds on the horizon. The European Union said last week its new European
Central Bank will hold just 15 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves in gold -- a move that has set the
industry on edge.

Some gold watchers had predicted the bank would keep up to 30 per cent of its estimated $55-billion
reserves in gold, especially considering the large gold reserves of the EU's member states. But the central
bank's president, Wim Duisenberg, burst that bubble when he said the bank will hold no more than
about 870 tonnes of gold in its reserves, worth about $8.3-billion at recent prices. That leaves between
11,000 tonnes and 12,000 tonnes in the vaults of EU member countries -- about five years' worth of
annual mine production worldwide.

Analysts are split on what happens next. Some, such as John Ing, president of Toronto investment
dealer Maison Placements Inc., say the European countries with the largest gold reserves ( Germany,
Italy and France ) will hang on to their gold and the price will slowly recover as markets stop worrying
about a massive glut of European gold. "I don't expect a heck of a lot of gold will come on to the
market."

Other analysts disagree. They argue that the "emotional" attachment some had to gold is a thing of the
past.

"There's really no benefit to [EU member states], keeping additional supplies of gold above and beyond
what the European Central Bank requires," said Mike Sorba, chief economist for Quantum Financial
Services in Vancouver. "I would say it's almost for sure" that the countries will sell their gold.

What happens to the gold price next depends on how the EU decides to manage what is now their
surplus gold. If they decide to hold it, analysts say the yellow metal could stage another rally and push
over the $300 mark for good. But if they, like Australia, Switzerland, India and others, have given up on
gold, the commodity could be in for another dive.

How low could it go? Most analysts suggest that $260, the average cost of production worldwide, is the
next logical floor -- although one suggested that gold would be overvalued even at that price, and that its
true worth, like silver's, only has two digits before the decimal point.

Even if it doesn't fall that far, some of Canada's higher-cost mining operations will feel the pinch if gold
starts to slide. Graham Eacott, vice-president of investor relations for Royal Oak, said gold at $260
would cause havoc in an industry where Canada is the world's fourth-largest producing country ( behind
South Africa, the United States and Australia ) .

"I think if gold were to go down to the $260 level, there would be some more mine closures. It would be
very difficult to operate at those prices," Mr. Eacott said. A spree of mergers and acquisitions would
follow, he added. "But the downside is very limited on gold. I think the worst is probably behind us."

I have not heard zip from or about him in a while...

I would not give that pissant the time of day...

Don't let this final decline scare you out of your long PM positions. This is the one that will make you
think you are so wrong about being long. You guys sound pretty bearish to me.
Me thinks I'll buy some more Hecla this week..........starting today.

GOLDEN CHEESE has it right this time in that the gold market seems to be discounting a devaluation of the yuan, which would cause another flight to the dollar and lower metals. The low prices on the gold stocks is truly amazing. DROOY, BGO, GSR, DAY are almost free. It won't be long that we'll look back and ask why we didn't sell the house and kids ( I'm not sure about the wife ) and buy gold stocks at these values.

December, then Feb.////I'm back from my 1 week hiking trip. It's
good to be back without any broken bones! I see things have gone
poopy in the PM's. It's getting close to the bottom for gold, IMHO.
It seems to me that things/events are converging. I think we could
see key reversals in many markets. The stock market appears to have already started. The bond market has too. It's soon time for the Metals
to reverse and the dollar to start its decline. Yep! I think so! IMHO
Fox-Man

Don't let this final decline scare you out of your long PM positions. This is the one that will make you
think you are so wrong about being long. You guys sound pretty bearish to me.
Me thinks I'll buy some more Hecla this week..........starting today.

Mr. Rather will announce that it's time to prepare as soon as he secures and stocks his private island, and has locked in several million in gold options. Just watch the call volume on July 99 gold... : )

Good Luck...and prepare!

Don't let this final decline scare you out of your long PM positions. This is the one that will make you
think you are so wrong about being long. You guys sound pretty bearish to me.
Me thinks I'll buy some more Hecla this week..........starting today.

Now for me, personally, that's just about the MOST DEPRESSING article or posting that I've seen on this site all year. I've never been so depressed and scared of my financial future in my entire life. May God have mercy on us goldbugs if that article is truth.

Unfortunately, I believe the WSU and other similar publications over two years ago when they were predicting that the "Wall Street Bull" could not go on more than a few months at most -- and I cashed in my regular stocks and mutual funds and bought gold stocks. Then, when gold sunk to horrible lows in late 1997, I thought "Surely the bottom must be now or near..." and LEVERAGED additional purchases rather than cashing in my chips. Who on God's greed earth would have thought it possible for the manipulators and spinmasters to keep gold so low for so long????? Now the leverage may hit me right where it really hurts.

Had I remained in traditional stocks, I would not have taken such a financial beating even if the DOW had crashed down to 3000. No doubt, others who post ( or lurk ) on this newsgroup are feeling the same pain... When will it ever end?

Tom

Jonesy - Sept SnP 1094 then 1085, Sept Silver not sure yet could be low 5's, soon

Thanx for this. I can't seem to keep up with this. Lost some URL,s . I have to agre with your observations. A washout in PM,s or s elling climax and we'll be on the way. The reverse of a selling climax in stocks- a blowoff. Charlie

Tom

anyone confirm.

HB

Just herd on CNBC he alreddy sold 'em.

Can't stay but thought I would say hello to you both. Gold taking another little hit today. We watch this...nevermind. ASB

Take care...both of you.

Tom

Keep Your Fork

The sound of Martha's voice on the other end of the telephone always
brought a smile to Brother Jim's face. She was not only one of the oldest members of the congregation, but one of the most faithful. Aunt Martie, as all of the children called her, just seemed to ooze faith, hope, and love wherever she went. This time, however, there seemed to be an unusual tone to her words.

"Pastor, could you stop by this afternoon? I need to talk with you."

"Of course, I'll be there around three. Is that ok?"

It didn't take long for Jim to discover the reason for what he had only
sensed in her voice before. As they sat facing each other in the quiet of her small living room. Martha shared the news that her doctor had just discovered a previously undetected tumor. "He says I probably have six months to live".

Martha's words were naturally serious, yet there was a definite calm about her.

"I'm so sorry to ..." but before Jim could finish, Martha interrupted
"Don't be. The Lord has been good. I have lived a long life. I'm ready
to go. You know that." "I know," Jim whispered with a reassuring nod.

"But I do want to talk with you about my funeral. I have been thinking
about it, and there are things that I know I want." The two talked quietly for a long time. They talked about Martha's favorite hymns, the passages of Scripture that had meant so much to her through the years, and the many memories they shared from the five years Jim had been with Central Church.

When it seemed that they had covered just about everything, Aunt Martie
paused, looked up at Jim with a twinkle in her eye, and then added, "One
more thing, Pastor. When they bury me, I want my old Bible in one hand and a fork in the other".

"A fork?" Jim was sure he had heard everything, but this caught him by
surprise. "Why do you want to be buried with a fork?"

"I have been thinking about all of the church dinners and banquets that I
attended through the years," she explained, "I couldn't begin to count them all. But one thing sticks in my mind. At those really nice
get-togethers, when the meal was almost finished, a server or maybe the
hostess would come by to collect the dirty dishes. I can hear the words
now. Sometimes, at the best ones, somebody would lean over my shoulder and whisper, 'You can keep your fork.' And do you know what that meant?
Dessert was coming! It didn't mean a cup of Jell-O or pudding or even a
dish of ice cream. You don't need a fork for that. It meant the good
stuff, like chocolate cake or cherry pie! When they told me I could keep my fork, I knew the best was yet to come! "That's exactly what I want people to talk about at my funeral. Oh, they can talk about all the good times we had together. That would be nice. "But when they walk by my casket and look at my pretty blue dress, I want them to turn to one another and say, 'Why the fork'?

That's when I want you to tell them that I kept my fork because the best is yet to come!

There is a formula that relates the price of gold to the age at which I can retire.

Roughly, every time gold goes down a dollar, I work an extra two weeks. Every time gold goes up a dollar, I get to retire two weeks earlier.

Glad I like my job.

Best wishes to all.

What was the first currency and government bailed out by the IMF ? Answer the greenback of the USG in 1977.

Do you have a conviction that gold is money ?
Do you have a conviction that the Constitutional provision that No State shall make anything but gold and silver coin a tender for debt is the law of the land ?
Do you have a conviction that government is sub Deo et sub Lege ?

Lacking a conviction for which you will risk death, imprisonment, and rejection by friends and family for conduct according to your conviction, you are a man of a mere preference. Propagandists will separate you from your gold.

Be prepared. Rotschild stated a few months ago that gold sales should be by auction and not by secret transaction between European CB's and the Euro CB. But, that does not mean they will be.

500,000 shares on the downside!!!! I think what is happening
is that when DROOY fell under 2 on Friday it kicked off margin selling.
There was a lot of volume above 3 and I bet a lot of it was on margin.
I bought 7000 more shares this morning. It was down then started up so
I bought at 1 7/8. Now it is 3/16 lower. I don't care. It is a give
away under $2. I think this classifies as a high volume wash out just
like old gold was looking for.

August will bring a turn, don't know when.

Thanks, GD

...it goes around and round and round.

Ho, hum.

BUT, the gold carry trade is at the end of its rope, I think.

Incidentally, have you ever wondered which gold bullion house ( aka gold shorter ) came up with the idea of linking the value of gold to the strength of the Yen?

Of all economic indicators, why that particular indicator?

Why not link the value of gold to the nearly 100% increase in gold retail sales in the U.S.A this past year?

Well, of course, that's a stupid question.

If gold were linked to such an indicator, then it would trade at $600 an ounce today. Not too good for the gold shorts, right?

Gold will likely soar when the public loses faith in the economic powerhouses and Wall Street analysts who have proven to be so correct over the past decade. The public will run to investments that were once denigrated by their financial idols and demi-gods.

Just have to wait a little longer.

Thanks.

F*

...don't forget to tell K-1 how much fun they can have here on K-2.

Thanks.

F*

HAVE SEX WITH THAT WOMAN with a stern look...now everyone wants to let him off the hook if he tells the truth because he can no longer lie. What a crock...

Shalom, Agree with you BUT maybe you could educate some of his
"friends"

Old Gold: Perhaps you are right. My take on the gold markets is that the news seems unusually bad, given how low gold already is. It is likely that we are reaching a solid gold bottom ( in US$ ) . As I recall, the worst news is at or just after the bottom -- like what is happening in Japan -- gold too, perhaps.
Steven John Kaplan has maintained his strongly bullish gold stance. And the JOC spot industrial commodities index has been rising fairly steadily since June 19.
June 19 -- 94.19
July 17 -- 96.21
July 30 -- 96.83

My guess is that the gold markets tend to follow the CRY0, which is still dropping. Either the CRY0 will come around when it drops to 200, or it will continue to drop. If the latter, the JOC spot will start dropping again. I doubt it.

Notice copper dropped quite a bit today? I don't follow copper, but my quess is that when it bottoms, the downward pressure on silver will let up, as people will realize that silver production will dry up.

It is hard to be bullish on gold these days -- just keep your powder dry!

Date: Mon Aug 03 1998 13:07
tolerant1 ( Clintler stood infront of the world and God and SWORE up and down I DID NOT ) ID#373284:
HAVE SEX WITH THAT WOMAN with a stern look...now everyone wants to let him off the hook if he tells the truth because he can no longer lie. What a crock...

------------------------

The truth is that, judging by the stains on old Lewinsky's dress, the Prez may NOT have had sex with her.

It's pretty sad but it looks as though Clinton is a preemie. He must have been spurting all over the place before she even dropped her dress.

Must be those purty juicy gums of hers that got him so excited.

Thanks.

F*

August 3, 1998

Nazi gold suit may touch Bank Austria -- U.S. lawyer

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - A lawsuit against banks alleged to have profited from the transit from Germany of gold stolen from Holocaust victims may be broadened to include Austria's largest bank, a U.S. lawyer for the survivors said Monday.

Edward Fagan, an attorney representing plaintiffs bringing charges against several Swiss and German banks, said a unit of Bank Austria is a target in the suit brought against Germany's Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Bank in June.

A statement on the issue is expected sometime Tuesday, Fagan said. It has been alleged that Creditanstalt Bankverein -- acquired by Bank Austria last year and once part of Deutsche Bank -- was a stop on the money trail used by Germany's Reichsbank to move the looted gold through Austria, Switzerland and on to Istanbul.

Once out of the country, the precious metal was used to further Germany's war effort.

"We have said that if any private bank is shown to have been a profiteer off of Holocaust victims' assets, then we will bring them to civil justice," Fagan told Reuters.

A spokeswoman for Bank Austria in Vienna told Reuters the bank was not aware of any such charges, but noted that based on available information, charges should be brought against Deutsche Bank, not Creditanstalt, which was merely a subsidiary of the German bank during the war.

"But should anything happen, we will be cooperative," she said.

OLD GOLD: re your, "As long as volume remains low, no lasting reversal is possible.".......why is that???

What constitutes proper behaviour and "Good order" for the active duty troops is different from that of the Commander in Chief....

IT SHOULD NOT BE! THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SHOULD COURT MARTIAL THE CURRENT COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE U.S. MILITARY.

Makes me wonder if Mr. Cohen was told to "adjust" the procedures for adultery...

- See attached -

Mozel: It is good, to again to read your comments. Your postings were on the money. Your take about family farmer's, and the reality of the situation, was in fact to give "welfare" to the Corporations, is bang on!

Take Care.

Kaplan is brilliant. But he still has been wrong far more often than he has been right on these past few years. In a recent E-mail debate he denied that low lease rates have anything to do with the gold bear.

Whether devlauation of yuan, more European selling, or IMF swelling POG sure is discounting some awful news to come. NEM down to 18. XAU now at new low ( I think ) . But until we get climactic volume in all XAU components and probably for a few days after that the trend will remain down.

Selling ckimaxes by definition require very high volume

The XAU closed at 59.1 Jun 25 1986, but where getting very close

Veteran analyst and longtime soldier AND survivor of numerous "Bear Wars," the venerable Gene Inger, shares recent reconnaissance with us:

Market internals continue deteriorating . . .

Believes short-term rallies will continue to be abortive and false,

We think the Transport index will contribute to heightened bearishness as
it gives a follow-the-leader sell in time

.Sure, we think that will be followed by an eventual drop to the 200-day moving average; or worse.

We say this
deterioration means the worst is yet to be seen, but you
don't always profit by taking action just when the Street
figures it out.

In summary. . .the market has never looked worse on an overall basis.

For full Inger details read at URL below -- it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/inger073098.html

What bothers me more that anything is that not one of the gold
analysts saw it coming. They all said the market would melt down.
Yet the golds have melted down as bad or worse that stocks in 1929!!
I don't know exactly what to make of all of that. It really is a problem
because either they lied and cannot be trusted or that this has
been manipulation and therefore not predictable. ( Blanchard,Bishop,etc. )

In either case the end result is the same. If you are on margin
you are in trouble. If not, then you don't lose until you sell.

The old addage on Wall Street says the following: low prices are
not enough. The prospects for the future must not be for a guick
return to health but for a long periond of recovery.

Now I read as much as the rest of you and I see that most news and
commentary says that Asia is going to take 10 years to recover and
gold is dead because there is no inflation and Greenspan is so good
that he can keep things so that Goldilocks is safe anywhere out in the
open.

I don't believe either of the above. I think Japan and Asia will recover
quickly and the USD is going to fall hard and gold is going to go up.

I thought the next 6 to 9 months were going to be good for gold.
Now that DROOY has dropped below 2 I am not so sure of that timing.
Some posters think things won't get better till next year. They might
be right. If so, I will have to wait. But wait I will. I am not selling
losing positions that I bought at good prices.

Sometimes life is a bitch. Now is that time for gold investors.
But since bottoms become tops and tops become bottoms; the coming
move in gold will be worth it.

Thanks and GO GOLD, GD

We are within .36 points of the 12 year low.
Meanwhile money deteriorates all over the world...Hard to figure.

Jonesy - Reversed again Sept Silver 5.37 stop 533.5, we'll see if the 5.35 area holds, tuff day getting a handle on this stuff. Watch the SnP if it cracks silver will go with it.

It used to be that a spate of devaluations were positive for the price of gold.

Today we have Japan with large loan loses in their banking system having pumped and probably still pumping up the dollar with US Treasury and equity purchases.

Japan has a poor record with investments, remember Nikkei 40,000, and land values in Tokyo being equal to the value of the entire US real estate stock.

Now thees same investors with a documented "poor track record" are/have been running to the dollar to make up some of their past errors.

What are they buying? An overvalued US currency and stock market. Yes they are investing in the worlds biggest debtor, both internally and externally. I expect this to backfire on us all.

It's always interesting to see what high-powered academics find funny.


JENNY JONES: Boy, we have a show for you today! Recently, the
University of Virginia philosopher Richard Rorty made the stunning
declaration that nobody has "the foggiest idea" what postmodernism
means. "It would be nice to get rid of it," he said. "It isn't exactly
an idea; it's a word that pretends to stand for an idea." This shocking
admission
that there is no such thing as postmodernism has produced a firestorm
of protest around the country. Thousands of authors, critics and
graduate students who'd considered themselves postmodernists are
outraged at the betrayal. Today we have with us a writer-a recovering
postmodernist-who believes that his literary career and personal life
have been irreparably damaged by the theory, and who feels defrauded
by the academics who promulgated it. He wishes to remain anonymous,
so we'll call him "Alex."

JENNY JONES TO ALEX: Alex, as an adolescent, before you began
experimenting with postmodernism, you considered yourself-what?

[Close shot of ALEX. An electronic blob obscures his face. Words
appear at bottom of screen: "Says he was traumatized by
postmodernism and blames academics."]

ALEX ( his voice electronically altered ) : A high modernist. Y'know, Pound,
Eliot, Georges Braque, Wallace Stevens, Arnold Schoenberg, Mies van
der Rohe. I had all of Schoenberg's 78's.

JENNY JONES: And then you started reading people like Jean-Francois
Lyotard and Jean Baudrillard-how did that change your feelings about
your modernist heroes?

ALEX: I suddenly felt that they were, like, stifling and canonical.

JENNY JONES: That is so sad, such a waste. How old were you when
you first read Fredric Jameson?

ALEX: Nine, I think. [The AUDIENCE gasps.] JENNY JONES: We have
some pictures of young Alex. ...[We see snapshots of 14-year-old ALEX
reading Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari's "Anti-Oedipus: Capitalism and
Schizophrenia." The AUDIENCE oohs and ahs.]

ALEX: We used to go to a friend's house after school-y'know, his
parents were never home-and we'd read, like, Paul Virilio and Julia
Kristeva.

JENNY JONES: So you're only 14, and you're already skeptical toward
the "grand narratives" of modernity, you're questioning any belief system
that claims universality or transcendence. Why?

ALEX: I guess-to be cool. JENNY JONES: So, peer pressure? ALEX: I
guess. JENNY JONES: And do you remember how you felt the very first
time you entertained the notion that you and your universe are
constituted by language-that reality is a cultural construct, a "text"
whose meaning is determined by infinite associations with other "texts"?

ALEX: Uh, it felt, like, good. I wanted to do it again.

[The AUDIENCE groans.]

JENNY JONES: You were arrested at about this time? ALEX: For
spray-painting "The Hermeneutics of Indeterminacy" on an overpass.

JENNY JONES: You're the child of a mixed marriage-right? ALEX: My
father was a de Stijl Wittgensteinian and my mom was a
neo-pre-Raphaelite.

JENNY JONES: Do you think that growing up in a mixed marriage made
you more vulnerable to postmodernism?

ALEX: Absolutely. It's hard when you're a little kid not to be able to just
come right out and say ( sniffles ) , y'know, I'm an Imagist or I'm a
phenomenologist or I'm a post-painterly abstractionist. It's really
hard-especially around the holidays. ( He cries. )

JENNY JONES: I hear you. Was your wife a postmodernist? ALEX:
Yes. She was raised avant-pop, which is a fundamentalist offshoot of
postmodernism.

JENNY JONES: How did she react to Rorty's admission that
postmodernism was essentially a hoax?

ALEX: She was devastated. I mean, she's got all the John Zorn albums
and the entire Semiotext ( e ) series. She was crushed.

[We see ALEX'S WIFE in the audience, weeping softly, her hands
covering her face.] JENNY JONES: And you were raising your daughter
as a postmodernist? ALEX: Of course. That's what makes this
particularly tragic. I mean, how do you explain to a 5-year-old that
self-consciously recycling cultural detritus is suddenly no longer a
valid art form?

JENNY JONES: Tell us how you think postmodernism affected your career as a
novelist.

ALEX: I disavowed writing that contained real ideas or any real passion.
My work became disjunctive, facetious and nihilistic. It was all metastatic
irony, a pernicious banality palimpsest of media pastiche. I found
myself indiscriminately incorporating any and all kinds of pop kitsch and
shlock. ( He begins to weep again. )

JENNY JONES: And this spilled over into your personal life? ALEX: It
was impossible for me to experience life with any emotional intensity. I
couldn't control the irony anymore. I perceived my own feelings as if they
were in quotes. I italicized everything and everyone. It became
impossible for me to appraise the quality of anything. To me everything
was equivalent-the Brandenburg Concertos and the Lysol jingle had the
same value.... ( He breaks down, sobbing. )

JENNY JONES: Now, you're involved in a lawsuit, aren't you?

ALEX: Yes. I'm suing the Modern Language Association.

JENNY JONES: How confident are you about winning?

ALEX: We need to prove that, while they were actively propounding it,
academics knew all along that postmodernism was a specious theory. If
we can unearth some intradepartmental memos-y'know, a paper trail-any
corroboration that they knew postmodernism was worthless cant at
the same time they were teaching it, then I think we have an excellent
shot.

JENNY JONES wades into audience and proffers microphone to a woman.

WOMAN ( with lateral head-bobbing ) : It's ironic that Barry Scheck is
representing the M.L.A. in this litigation because Scheck is the
postmodern attorney par excellence. This is the guy who's made a
career of volatilizing truth in the simulacrum of exculpation!

VOICE FROM AUDIENCE: You go, girl! WOMAN: Scheck is the guy who
came up with the quintessentially postmodern re-bleed defense for O.J.,
which claims that O.J. merely vigorously shook Ron and Nicole, thereby
re-aggravating pre-existing knife wounds. I'd just like to say to any
client of Barry-lose that zero and get a hero!

The AUDIENCE cheers wildly. [Dissolve to message on screen: If you
believe that mathematician Andrew Wiles's proof of Fermat's last
theorem has caused you or a member of your family to dress too
provocatively, call ( 800 ) 555-8888.]

APH: Why will silver go if SNP cracks?

The share prices of nearly every gold mining company is at or near their 52-week low. NEM is currently below its 52-week low. Volume is incredibly low. All interest in gold shares and physical seems to have dissipated, except for us Kitco goldbugs. What event will turn this sentiment around? There are a bunch of events out there ready to happen. Buy...buy...buy. When the event ( s ) happen, gold will rise to the surface, like cream in milk. Hang on, fellow goldbugs, our turn is next!

S&P linked to silver cf. industrial demand?

I believe you. Still, it's a tough day to be long metals.

could turn it around in the blink of an eye. The problem is, we don't
know how long it will take for these factors to play out. These
factors ( which have been discussed alot here ) seem to all depend on
what the dollar does. When we see a significant decline in the U.S.
dollar...look out! Inflation ( or stagflation ) really starts heating
up, the stock market continues its decline even more, and people and
fund managers start looking towards safer investments....the PM's
Fox-Man

We all live in a yellow submarine...

Lookouts below!
Dive! Dive! Dive!

Got air?

US dollar index ( FINEX ) +.40

ready to explode soon!! """OF COURSE, HOW LONG IS SOON TO US?"""
Fox-Man

I e-mailed a couple of questions lately to Bob Prechter about his wave count on gold. As many of you know he has been bearish for some time and continues to be so. I asked him about the possibility of wave X ending in Dec 87 as opposed to his preferred count of ending in Feb'96 in a failed wave e of X. He said that was a possibility but that the decline from 1987 into 1992 was more representative of a three wave decline as opposed to a five wave decline. I am of the former opinion that this is part of a large ending pattern which began in 1987. The TSE gold and silver index has clearly shown a zig-zag formation down from the high in 1987. The move from February 1996 is impulsive as it should be under both interpretations and as Prechter's count currently suggest. The move from the April high of this year is also five waves down after a wave four zig-zag pattern from January - April 1998. This should be the final move down. In the XAU index there was a classic ascending triangle formed just prior to this move down. Triangles are typical formed just prior to the last movement.

Momentum oscillators on a weekly and monthly basis continue to diverge positively with the re-testing of the lows. If this is a large ending pattern which began in February 1996 and potentially as far back as Dec. 87 then prices should hold in or around this area on light volume as exhaustion sets in with lower prices. If volume begins to pick up I would be concerned that an acceleration of prices to the downside in a wave three of three style would be unfolding. I think this week will begin to resolve the story. Stay tuned.

All, do not doubt that as the situation of the Federal Reserve and other CBs becomes more & more desperate, that they will not TOTALLY DESTROY the gold industry.

There must be *NO* precious metals alternative to investing in their worthless CONfidence paper make-believe money.

Spud

Jonesy/Savage - I have no idea. It's just an observation watching them trade.

As Eliot Janeway used to say,GOLD GOES THE OPPOSITE OF THE CURRENCY IN POWER. Strong dollar weak gold,but enough already.

destroy the EURO and I can assure you if Europe does not clean up its act there will be waves of blody revolutions...uh huh...

The Beginning

In September of 1919, Hitler recieved orders from the army to check out a political party that was forming. It was called the German Worker's Party.

On April 1, 1920, Hitler left the army for good. Also on this day, the name of the German Worker's Party was changed to the National Socialist German Worker's Party-from which Nazi emerged.

Hitler Takes Over

In the summer of 1921, Hitler took control of the Nazi Party.
Hitler believed that the causes for Germany's failure were the tolerance for Jews and Marxists, selfishness of the middle class, and the lack of a fundamental social and racial policy, among others. He also believed that National Socialism would correct these problems.

http://tesuque.cs.sandia.gov/~bbooth/docs/rise.html

The Depression

The Depression of 1929 gave Hitler his opportunity. Most surprised with the outcome were businessmen. Most decided to join the party, which gave Hitler a backing of the business in Germany, securing his finances for the years to come. Also, in 1927, no members of the Nazi were allowed into the army, but in 1930, they had all but taken it over. The German government was no doubt heading towards Nazism.

The Nazification

Five hours after being sworn in as Chancellor, Hitler held his first cabinet meeting. His first cabinet consisted only of "three" members of the National Socialist German Worker's Party ( NSDAP or Nazi ) out of the "eleven" elected.

By the beginning of Febuary Hitler had shut down everything do with the Communists. This was also likewise for the Social Democrats and the Catholic Center Party

On Febuary 27, the Reichstag was set ablaze. Immediately the Communists were blamed for it. For it, Hitler ordered all Communists shot on the spot were they were seen. Although many were killed, the fire remained a mystery.

At Nuremburg, though, there was enough evidence to say that it was the Nazis themselves who planned the and carried out the arson for their own political reasons.

In the past year, he had overthrown the Weimer Republic, destroyed all poitical parties but his own,
wiped out labor unions,
took the Jews out of public and proffesional life,
abolished freedom of speech and the press,
and co-ordinated the political, social, economic, and cultural life of the German people under Nazi Rule.
In August, President Hindenburg died, and Hitler took over. He was known as Fuehrer rather than president.
http://tesuque.cs.sandia.gov/~bbooth/docs/nazification.html

Hang in there. Commercials are long nearly 2 x 1 and speculators are short nearly 6 x 1. This is a huge divergence from the norm. I feel a short squeeze in the offing. There is less money to be made on the short side than on the long. It is a matter on time.

breaking his leg on a hike? Hope he's doing all right. I hope I'm
getting the right poster, too! Yeah, hiking in the mountains is
great! I just got back. There's always that type of danger, especially
on wet slippery trails! We had alot of those on our hike. Nothing
like hiking in rain, putting up camp in rain, etc. The scenery and
fishing is worth it, though...Fox-Man

Tol,
What choice does the Fed & sister cabal CB have re. gold?

They've tried to destory its perception as money.

They've tried to poison it by association with Nazi/Swiss gold.

They've tried to contaminate it as an mining enviromental destroyer.

What is left? Here's a few:

1 ) gold owners are crypto-cannibals.

2 ) gold came from killer asteroids and possessing it will only bring more asteroinds down to Destroy Mother Earth.

3 ) gold causes impotence, unhelped by Viagra.

...anyway, I shall continue to by more : ) Looking at the DOW today, my oh my, dem Plunge Protection Boyz must be at their witts end...

Spud, 1776 soon...

FEMA has been quoted in the Washington Post this year as saying "FEMA does not have, never has had, nor will ever seek, the authority to suspend the Constitution." Louis Giuffrida, before he became Director of FEMA in the early 80s wrote a paper for the Army War College in which he proposed "assembly centers or relocation camps" for at least 21 million black Americans.


http://www.worldnetdaily.com/metcalf/980803.comgm.html

Nice tech rundown ( figuratively speaking ) . Yes, please keep us posted. Thank you.

the short side now. The dollar would have to continue to rise for
quite some time. I can't see that happening. Also, like you said,
the commercials are very long. Historically, it's best to follow
them according to Steve Kaplan. Fox-Man

sorry, no, my dad has both legs in working condition.

Buy gold, reject fraudulent, unconstitutional criminal Federal Reserve Note "money".

Use Federal Reserve Notes - ensure that your children are the slaves of bankers forever.

Abolish the Federal Reserve!

Spud

Each time during the past year that the US index has rally it has done so on less momentum to the point that the current rally looks like a last ditch effort. The Yen is also set up to rally back to at least the 133 level. This combined with the European currencies could at last break the back of the rise in the dollar and give us our turn in gold.

Something is UP. Perhaps more correctly...DOWN. Very interesting.

RJ...you got any idea?

Tom bbml

Thanks. Experience is the best teacher. Second best is listening to the experienced.

from my previous post in case you did not read it...I suggest you read this...

Clif Droke wrote an article July 16th of this year in which he noted "On 16 June 1998, the Navy and Marine Corps were conducting their annual strategy meeting entitled "Current Strategy Forum". This year's meeting was held at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. A source who was in attendance at the meeting reported that he was shocked by a sentence uttered by the Under Secretary of the Navy, if only for its remarkable candor. "After I read the following quote I called personal friends of mine in Rhode Island, and people I know at the War College in Newport. Four sources confirmed the following. "U.S. Under Secretary of the Navy, the Honorable Jerry MacArthur, then began to answer questions. Mr. MacArthur made this statement, apparently off the cuff: 'Senior Military Pentagon officials have been working closely with senior officials at Wall Street to perfect several scenarios that could quickly be put into action once Wall Street crashes.'"

Savage: Of course there is no law that says this gold bear must end in a selling climax. But my observation of papa bears like this indicates that they usually do. A good example -- US stocks in late 1974.

'Senior Military Pentagon officials have been working closely with senior officials at Wall Street to perfect several scenarios that could quickly be put into action once Wall Street crashes.'

-- Any idea what we're looking for in this?

Yes, 1974. Wasn't that the year President Nixon was forced to resign?

is out of control, Clintler is out of control, Clintler has written more Executive Orders than any previous holder of the same office...I find it odd especially when one considers that the actions of Clintler and EnviroWhore Gore have been woefully inadequate in addressing and informing the general public on Y2K...

Considering that some putz on orders from Clintler might show up at me Mumms house with an automatic weapon does not sit well with this kid...

"I am not in favor of the GOLD STANDARD,
nor against the GOLD STANDARD au Contraire"

( :- ) )

...announcing the complete sale of his entire long term treasury bond holdings probably put pressure on gold shorts to use all their remaining available reserves and push gold down again. I noticed gold weaken significantly almost immediately after the CNBC announcment ( -.20 dropping to -2.00 ) .

I don't think it was a coincidence. No way! I feel certain gold's down move was orchestrated by Wall Street gold shorts/Bonds bulls. Also, aggravating matters was market wizard Jimmy Roger's Friday announcement heralding imminent stagflation...very bad for bonds but GREAT for gold!

Again, it is imperative that gold shorts convince fleeing DOW investors that BONDS are the only real flight to safety...NOT gold or silver.

Thus, if gold had been strengthening ( and Bonds weakening ) when the Berkshire announcement was revealed, then the momentum might have accelerated. Gold shorts stepped in at just the right moment. However, I would imagine their ability to continue these kinds of interventions is nearly exhausted. The gold carry trade is beyond its endurance limits.

Thanks.

F*

Jonesy: yes Nixon did resign in 1974. Also oil prices had soared, interest rates had soared, and the US had lost the Vietnam war.

NEM appears to be undergoing a selling climax. But not the other XAU components. Not yet.

So after all that what in your professional opinion is the short term ( 3 mo ) and medium term ( 60 mo ) direction for gold. I read your post several times but came only sure that you recommended watching the XAU closely this week.

" Camdesuss slept with my dog...he lied when he said he was disease free
and it was perverse. It is perverse that the deceit is so readily
accepted as the truth...quite right...and I have kicked my dog more than
once for such lack of clarity..."

While clarity is indeed lacking, the dog has certainly demonstrated profound CHARITY...gravely misplaced though it be.

been busy...will give you a call at a repectable hour when I find myself at home...won't be today due to travels.

!

...the past week's TWO gold stock upgrades ( including ECHO BAY, if you can believe it!! ) by GOLDMAN SACHS could not have gone unnoticed by gold shorts.

It has really been a long time since GOLDMAN has upgraded gold stocks. A long time! Now, even a major Wall Street house is breaking ranks ( with the likes of gold/silver short extraordinaire Merrill Lunch ) and declaring a floor for various gold mining companies. Not just any investment house, mind you...but Treasury Secretary Rubin's favorite house on The Street.

Oh, oh!!!!

Again, if the gold shorts cannot cause complete capitulation this month on the part of gold investors, then I question their ability to sustain this gold carry trade house of cards.

Thanks.

F*

When did Greenspan make that quote please

Buffets selling of his zeros should send a definite message to "the gold carry trade players" to buy back and replace the leased gold they sold to buy their bonds.

NEM is dropping like a stone on high volume while ECO is up on low volume. Could the Sr. mining companies be absorbing the selling climax while the Jrs. have little further to fall?

Received this unsolicited E-mail this morning. Cheesehead will like this


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/03/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 6/19/98
Purchase NAV: 5.02
Current NAV as of 7/31/98 close: 4.97

Return on current trade: -1.00%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 6.04%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: 1.73%


Market Commentary:

We have returned from our vacation last week to find the market even
more sickly looking than before we left. This, of course, comes as no
surprise to us as our forecast for last week was for nothing but a brief
dead-cat bounce or two to the upside followed by more selling into the
end of July. In fact Friday's late day washout to the downside resulted
in a key reversal month for most of the major market indices, as new
highs were seen intra-month but the market ended July lower than the
level seen at the beginning of the month. This is a harbinger of a what
we think will be a very bad stretch for the market between now and
October.
The most incredible aspect of the dramatic downside reversal of the
prior two weeks is the fact that speculators are disbeleiving the
decline. After decades of trying to pick market tops, the last bears
have finally capitulated and have now switched to picking bottoms even
as we float up here in the insanely overvalued stratosphere. How do we
know this is the case? Simple, just watch the option put/call ratios,
especially those of the OEX as they are most indicative of speculative
sentiment. Last week the weekly OEX put/call ratio was an exuberant .97,
coming in below 1.0 every day except Wednesday. This speculative
complacency occured during a week when new lows outnumbered new highs by
supremely bearish 626 new lows versus 92 new highs. During this same
week Decliners swamped Advancers by a whopping 2354 to 984 issues. It is
painfully clear to any bulls who care to glance at market internals that
the market is a house of cards ready to crumble, but they aren't even
bothering to look. The latest Investors Intellingence numbers show the
same complacency, as bullish sentiment remained at a dangerously high
52.5% and bearish sentiment remained at an equally dangerous 26.3%.
Expect to see more weak dead-cat bounces followed by severe
sell-offs until a healthy level of fear returns to the market. However,
we beleive that bulls have become so complacent that it will take an
all-out market crash to return a healthy level of fear to the market.
Our advice to subscribers who are not already short to get short, and
for those who are short to sit tight and let the selling deluge run its
course. Many Die-hard bulls are waiting for a re-test of the highs to
lighten up on longs, and many long-suffering bears are waiting for this
same re-test to get short. Meanwhile johnny come lately bulls, and dip
buying lemmings are trying to pick the next bottom, and fantasizing
about new highs and Dow 10,000 pipe dreams. We think they are all going
to get left out in the cold as the market just keeps falling
relentlessly with a few brief dead-cat bounces here and there.
So, we remain short the market via our current Ursa trade, with no
immediate plans to reverse course any time soon. Remember the downside
is just getting started...

When all the majors start acting like NEM has these past few days, then a bottom will be in sight.

Talked to a buddy of mine on the Hill last nght about Clintler taking over and he is pretty confident it won't happen. Apparently there is NOT widespread support for our prez up there. Clintler would be hard pressed to garner enough support to stay in office, I do believe. One comment of note from my friend is that, yes, the government's computers are a mess and that our Commander-in-Chief himself is holding up $$$ to fix them. Maybe they should send in a chunky brunette to convince Clintler to sign off on the computer fix. Yes?

strat,Namaste' is Hannibal the Cannibal available?

To be sure, these events are germane to the price of gold-

January 26, 1998:

"I want to say one thing to the American people," he said, wagging his
finger at almost every word.

"I'm going to say this again. I did not have sexual relations with that
woman, Miss Lewinsky."

"I never told anybody to lie. Not a single time. Never. These allegations
are false and I need to go back to work for the American people."

But see here:
http://qrd.rdrop.com/qrd/usa/legal/lgln/1995/11.95

While declining to hold that the Tennessee prostitution statute
is void for vagueness per se, the Tennessee Court of Criminal
Appeals ruled in State v. Boyd, 1995 WL 623781 ( Oct. 25 ) , that
the lack of definition of "sexual relations" in the statute
created an ambiguity raising due process concerns about the
instant prosecution, where the alleged prostitutes staged a
sexual performance that involved no genital contact with the
"customers" ( who were, of course, undercover police officers ) .
During its deliberations, the jury, confused about how to proceed
under the statute, submitted a question to the court: "Is there a
definition for sexual relations?" The court's response was: "The
Tennessee legislature has provided no statutory definition for
sexual relations. It is your duty as jurors to define this."
After their conviction, the defendants claimed on appeal that
there was not sufficient evidence in the record to support a
conviction and that the statute was unconstitutionally vague...

Writing for the court, Judge Welles noted the principle that "if
an offense is not defined so as to afford persons of ordinary
intelligence fair notice of what conduct is prohibited, it
violates due process."...

..."we conclude that the language of the statute did not give them or
anyone else sufficient warning that those acts would constitute `sexual
relations' such as is prohibited by the prostitution statute."
The court ordered the prostitution convictions reversed and those
charges dismissed...

Aren't Treasury Zeros instuments bought at large discount to the face amount and which are payed off at face value at maturity.

In betwix, their street value is predicated on interest rates but no interest is payed, as it all comes with maturity.

I think ( but, am not sure ) that the holder gets taxed on the calculated annual interest for each tax year held.

Could it be that Buffet smells higher rates coming, or the inability of the US to pay off on its huge debt except with eroded dollar values?

Hope he buys more silver, and hopefully some gold with the profits.

APH: Tough day to make a nickel in SP. Yes? PMs likewise. This weekend I spent a lot of time looking at charts with just a line price indicator. With my simple DOS software I had to create a line with a 1 bar simple ma and then hide the bars. Then I applied a 10 bar exp ma as a simple crossover indicator. I like the looks of that arrangement very much. It looks very good across different time lines as well. ...... The crossover should be backed up with other indicators in order to cut the number of whips.

I wish I could say that I came up with it myself but I didn't. It comes from a comment Oldman made on Thurs eve last.

For example look SI in 30 min bars with line and the 10 bar ema. It probably would have kept you short from about 565. Also look at SP in different time intervals. The shortest I've used are 5 min. ..... It would have been extremely profitable last Fri and probably kept you on the sidelines today. IMO. ....... Lemme know what you think. .... Sure cuts the clutter.

An exerpt from "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy" by Douglas Adams

"The President in particular is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. He is apparently chosen by the government, but the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage. For this reason the President is always a controversial choice, always an infuriating but fascinating character. His job is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it."

The book is incredibly funny ( in a Monty-Pythonesque way ) , but this part in particular rang SO true with respect to the current 'Merican administration that I had to reprint it here for Kitco.

Whitewater, Monicagate, 'bimbo eruptions', Paula Jones, Travelgate, Filegate, ad nauseum.
Are all these 'storys' really *THE* story? Or are they fluff to keep us occupied while the real story plays out in ( relative ) silence?

Just wondering aloud.

MG

Hi. Just dropped in to say hello. Like your analysis on the Buffet deal. Think the reverb's still a day away.

Speaking of away, must fly. Keep up the good fight, my friend.

Numbers don't lie?...The governments do....by John Crudele

----------------------------------------------------------------

http://nypostonline.com/business/4966.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980803/lihir_gold_1.html

There is something wrong with a place that looks to its elected officials for cultural leadership.

studio says, "I have NEVER smelled a bottom quite like this one before."

Nice to see you posting .

Yes this one has the scent of falling air.

That must be your Presidential campaign slogan!

Those who sell their Gold now will get whacked when we finally hit rock bottom.
When half of GE's market cap equals all the Gold mines in the world, you know the valuations are unsustainable.
Just plain logic.

This time, until 152. A guess . Of course on the YEN.

And pray tell...whose?

ka...boooooooooooooomdeaaaaaaaa' thanks to durben.deep I have a tenth hole in my body.

ALLOWS the government to take over all alectric power, gas, oil, fuels, and minerals. Humm Mr Klinton has a lot of power. ( quote from Strategic investment of July 22 1998. )

Either commodities go up, or stocks will go down, and down, and down.

The Dow cash index made a double top formation today, needs to break out above 8900 tommarow or it will get sold hard.

Have been studying and preparing for y2k for two years. Wanted to buy some more gold coins. Had it on my mind to do today. Phone rings, it is the guy I deal with ( some peoples timing is better than mine ) . Whats happening, I ask. Woe is me he says. Our computers are down and have been for weeks. What happened? Well, one of the brokers was entering data and put 2000 in for a date. What did you lose? We have no access to any of our records, think we have lost our notes and we do not know yet about our customer base. I only have your number because I have a card where I had written it down. I have to ask some questions I would otherwise not have to ask. Didn't you buy something a while back. Yes, blah, blah. Oh, I remember now. Didn't we discuss blah, blah. Yes. Do you want to proceed? Yes. I have to call down to the room to reserve them, can you hold? ( this used to be done by computer ) . Can you run the operation with pen and pencil? Yes, but it is much more difficult. It may be more difficult, but most could not go back to such primitive ways.

Results and Lessons: If you are not convinced the problem is real, become convinced. The next time someone suggests that you have written copies of your financial records and other documents, do not scoff at the idea. Never again make the assumption that everything will continue to function as it has in the past. Without the ability of this company to function with pen and pencil, it would now be heading for extinction. Think hard about the sytemic problem of this brave new world that has been built. The difficulty they are having relates to corrupt data entering the system and the sytem will not handle it. It only took one, only one date to crash their operation. Think hard about that my friends, this is one companies real life story. It happened.

Well, the transaction was done the old fashioned way and I will get my coins, God willing and the creek don't rise. Just thought a real life experience might help.

Cheers,

I'm okay..........I just need Deluxe Depends.....thanks for your concern. A Gulp&Poot to YA!!! ;^ ) ~

Been a tough year . Pten 6.5. I got a target of 5.75. Now I'm afraid to touch it... O Me, Me. The trouble I seen. Gold, and oil, woe is us.

Glad to see you did not give up. Please do not allow x=x,y,z to bait and trap you AB.

Our turn will come for gold. Just hope we live long enough.

commodities are sayin: The grim rearer is comin for de stock market.

whining on Kitco. Everything is pretty much going on schedule although I am a year late...oops!...the Internet is performing flawlessly though and will crush Clintler, the dirtbags in his administration and We the People need to clean HOUSE and the SINATE as well...

But CAMDESUSS is mine, he will pay the vet bill and then he goes one way to Indonesia and whats left goes to Korea...ahhhhhhhhh ha!

VIVA JUSTICE!!!

Could you have imagined this? No way, Jose'! I am learning that oil and studio don't mix.

1929. Say it ain't so commodite.

Fatcats love Clitler. They look at him and see Bull Market ( Bull )

It's like we're deliberately trying to be poor.

John Deere owners and new Pontiacs don't mix either. This economy is about to become uneconomical. studio.dumb ( founded )

Been doing some thinking ( dangerous ) about investments in the PM'S.
I'm starting to feel that silver, and only silver, is the metal to be invested
in. I don't think it's possible to have a rally in gold, without silver following,
but I believe that silver could rally, with gold staying in the doldrums.

In short, I think it's far more likely to see $11 silver, than $600 gold.

Would appreciate anybody's opinion on this.
Thanks.

true enough, but you will see them in the bread lines as well...uh huh...

I speculated many ( many... ) months ago that gold rallies start with fear and that presidential popularity polls are actually a fear index. Forget the sexual crap. When the polls turn, so will gold. IMHO

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Deflation is all about decreasing money supply. Falling prices is a lagging *indicator*. When the Govt closes out loan positions faster that it forms new ones it reduces the money supply. Even more important is what level of money creation is taking place at your neighborhood bank...is it issuing more new loans or primarily collecting on outstanding loans. If people are no longer borrowing, THAT is the deflation that will KILL the economy as we know it. Big-time deflation...as in "Hey, where did all the money go?!"

Here's the link I promised up front:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/economy_de_1.html

Forgot to add that the value of Zeros increases in proportion to the amount of value built up each year toward maturity, but still effected by interest rates and taxes due, if the build up is taxable on a yearly basis.

Did you say you are in Ga.? ( the land of James Brown )

The infusion of dollars is in response to the fall in Gold and Oil. Economies are slowing down, not the reverse.

When Asia gets better.

...does Buffett smell higher rates coming?

He doesn't have to smell them. He sees it clearly because Greenspan drew a clear picture for him when warning of a greater threat of future domestic inflation than deflation.

( I must say that, the more I reflect upon it, the more I believe that Greenspan is the only Clinton government member who is "trying" to bring some degree of reality to Wall Street. Unfortunately, his greatest crime was NOT adjusting interest rates higher last year to redress the extant financial bubble ) .

We already have tremendous upside potential for service sector inflation in America, regardless of deflationary trends in various manufactured goods and various commodities...and we are in fact a service economy today.

Thanks.

F*

...sheesh, you guys make me blush.

Thanks.

F*

The hardest workin man in show business. Joe South, Gladys Knight, Ray Charles, Billy joe Royal, Jerry Reed. Lautie music. Grammy 1969: games People Play. Do you remember these guys?

Now hang on a second, you said he was born in Barnwell, South Carolina!

I do, but I NEVER had sexual relations with any of them.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 3

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,092,254 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 79,136,133 + 628,695 troy ounces
Copper 55,719 + 0 short tons

N/A= Not available.
********************************************************************
How will Silver react tomorrow? I'm guessing this week will play out
with some more down, maybe to 5.33 versus Sept contract, then mid to
late in the week a significant bounce. This bounce will be because
of further decreases in Comex Silver stock levels around Wednes or
Thurs....This is all speculation, of course. Fox-Man

Surprised myself that I could actually muster up a laugh today. THANKS!

..a computer service generated a list of ANAGRAMS of BART KITNER's name and sent me the entire list just a few moments ago.

Here it is: BART KITNER ( ANAGRAMS )


Bitter rank. Tinker brat.
Brink treat. Trek in brat.
Trek bin rat. Batter rink.
Trek rib ant. Bet rat rink.
Trek bit ran. Trek bin art.
Brat 'n' I trek. Rib ken tart.
Kerb in tart. Trek bin tar.
Kerb rant it. Bitter knar.
Trek bran it. Rent kit bar.
Trek tin bar. Kirn batter.
Trek nib rat. Rat ken brit.
Kern brat it. Ark 'n' bitter.
Bark rent it. Ark bittern.
Trinket bar. Kerb tin rat.
Trek rib tan. Irk bent rat.
Tank err bit. Knit re brat.
Rent ark bit. Trike 'n' brat.
Rat kern bit. Err bank tit.
Trek bar 'n' it. Bet rink art.
Knit barter. Rent kit bra.
Trek tin bra. Trek barn it.
Bet tar rink. Kit 'n' re brat.
Rat kit Bern. Rat kit Bren.
Irk net brat. A brink tret.
Rink be tart. Tank re brit.
Batter in KR. Kirn bet rat.
Rib rat Kent. Kerb it 'n' rat.
Irk bet rant. Bk it ranter.
Tanker brit. Kit 'n' barter.
Irk brat ten. Barker 'n' tit.
Kerb tit ran. I, rank Brett.
Trinket bra. Ark Britten.
Trek nib art. Trek 'n' a brit.
Irk 'n' batter. Ken brit art.
Tint barker. Inter rat bk.
Irk bat rent. Irk rent tab.
Rib tent ark. Trek nib tar.
Kerb tin art. Tar ken brit.
Trek bra 'n' it. Irk bent art.
Trek rib 'n' at. Tin erk brat.
Kit bar tern. Taker 'n' brit.
Trek brit. An. Errant bk it.
Ark in Brett. Kerb tin tar.
Rant erk bit. Battier 'n' KR.
Irk bent tar. Bark it tern.
A rink Brett. Tart 'n' I kerb.
Trek rant BI. Trek bar nit.
Bin erk tart. Bite rant KR.
Rent Ki brat. Kern bit art.
Bet rat in KR. Knit bat err.
Knit err tab. Net ark brit.
Trek t brain. Rat inert bk.
Tar kern bit. Kern bar tit.
Kerb rat nit. Kirn bet art.
Kit Bern art. Kit Bren art.
Ark bernt it. Ark Brent it.
Kerb it 'n' art. Tinker rat B.
Irk bet 'n' rat. Ark bit tern.
Ark brit ten. Ta! trek 'n' rib.
Erk brat 'n' it. Tar kit Bern.
Tar kit Bren. Rib Kent art.
Inter k brat. Kit 'n' bat err.
Kit 'n' err tab. Brit traken.
Rib nett ark. Bat inter KR.
Bet train KR. Kirn be tart.
Rib nek tart. Banter KR it.
I rat bent KR. Kirn bet tar.
Rib tar Kent. Kit bra tern.
Rate t brink. Tear t brink.
Kerb it 'n' tar. Trek brat Ni.
Bin KR treat. Inter KR tab.
I rent rat bk. Rib rent kat.
K bit ranter. Irk Barnett.
Trite 'n' bark. Brink tart e.
Ink batter R. KR tribe ant.
Bitter k ran. Kerb 'n' trait.
Inter bk art. Trek bra nit.
KR 'n' a bitter. Kit B ranter.
Kart 'n' tribe. Trek rat in B.
Irk tent bar. Rat nek brit.
Trek rain tb. Erk 'n' rat bit.
Ink bar tret. Inter tar bk.
Rib net kart. A KR bittern.
Kern bra tit. Ark Bern tit.
Ark Bren tit. Neat KR brit.
Rant k tribe. Inert k brat.
Bark in tret. Bat inert KR.
Irk bat tern. Kerb it tarn.
Ranker tb it. Trek BI 'n' rat.
KR 'n' bite rat. Bitter KR. An.
Barren k tit. I bark trent.
I trek rat Nb. I bet rant KR.
T rank tribe. Rib kart ten.
I net KR brat. KR 'n' I batter.
Inert KR tab. Tinker bat R.
Irk tab tern. Bark tit 'n' re.
Trek train B. Errant k bit.
Bet KR in art. Bk 'n' rare tit.
Tank tribe R. Kern brit at.
Tinker tab R. Batter kin R.



Thanks Bart. My favorite is BARKER N' TIT.

F*

The whipporwills roostin on the telephone pole, as the Georgia sun goes down. It's been a long time, and I'm proud to say that I'm goin back down to my home town... Goin down to the Grey hound station, gonna buy me a one way fare. Good Lord willin, and de creek don't rise, goin back down to my hometown. Don't it make you want to go home now, don't it make you want to go home. All God's children get weary when they roan now, don't it make you wanna go home. God how I wasnt to go home.
Used to sing the song in Vietnam.

was born in Augusta Ga. at the age of five.

NY Precious Metals Review

Dec gold hits 6 1/2-mo low

08/03/98 15:43 ET

New York--Aug 3--COMEX Dec gold futures settled down $2.60 at $287.90
per ounce after plummeting to a 6 1/2 month low of $287.50. Gold fell as
the dollar continued to climb against the yen and was also pressured by an
across-the-board fall in commodities prices, including crude oil losses,
which pushed the CRB index down to a fresh 5-year low. The stronger dollar,
coupled with gold's slide, which was exacerbated when it took out a number
of support levels, put pressure on the other precious metals pushing them
all into the red.

One trader noted that early morning sales from a large New York trade
house, probably stemming from fund business, pushed gold through $290 and
triggered sell-stops.

"There was sizeable buying this morning from another trade house, but
when that stepped out of the way, gold fell back," he said. He noted that
gold had a "delayed reaction" to the dip in the yen against the dollar
after spot gold had failed to move much during London trade.

Traders noted that gold's fall steepened when technically-driven funds
came in as sellers, bringing Dec gold close to the $287 contract low.
One noted that today's weak close would probably encourage further
selling.

"There's weakness in yen, we're in a deflationary cycle and the CRB
Index is lower...There's no reason to buy gold," he said.

The dollar was at 145.58 yen at 1525 ET, after jumping to a 2 1/2 week
high of 145.86.

"It's the same story," noted Bill O'Neill, senior futures strategist at
Merrill Lynch. "The yen is under pressure, the dollar is strong...It's the
same deterioration."

He said that with silver prices falling too, a "psychological prop"
had also been taken away from gold. Sep silver dropped below the 40-day
moving average of $5.405 per ounce, to settle down 9.8c at $5.36 after
hitting a 2 1/2 week low.

O'Neill noted that the committment of traders report released Friday
by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that silver longs had
increased. "This means silver's vulnerable to more liquidation pressure,"
said O'Neill, noting that 1-month lease rates had also eased to 1.5% from
the 3.5% seen Thursday, showing a decrease in market tightness.

Traders noted that the late weakness in silver was primarily a domino
effect from gold's strong slide.

-- Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News

You gots what it takes...my man. I gotsta' get back on home too.

Gladys was kinda cute. The Phipps were ugly, but could spinn well. Could have been Spinners. They had that much talent. Midnight Train to Georgia. Man, could she sing.

I think that both Ag and Au are effected by the shorts, but silver has the definite advantage because of the draw down over the past eight years -due to the production deficit. Your price objective is not unattainable, but we can be sure they will use every spin in the book to stop the metal.
I think that if the shorts are hit and silver increases materially it will rub off on gold.
The present situation in demonizing gold could be an experiment to give fiat a chance to upsurp gold, but the rash of recent devaluations worldwide says otherwise, at least to me.
On the other side it gives the conservative money powers a chance to buy the yellow on the cheap. or still cheaper. Cruel world.

Brown's life history documents one triumph over adversity after another. He was born into poverty in Barnwell, South Carolina, during the Great Depression.

http://www.rockhall.com/induct/browjame.html

Check ya later

Not once have I heard the name Rush Limbaugh on this forum.
He being one of Pres. closest freind and advisors.???????????
A chug a Lug tu .u

Very few analysts gauged the severity of the Bre-x reaction. I'm reminded of 1 of Bob Bishop's letters a few months after Bre-x. Basically, he said "in order for the jrs to recover we need a new batch of investors" ( read suckers ) . The vast majority of V. stocks are run by greedy sociopaths & to a lesser extent that's true of all the stock mkts.

...sounds logical today.

Silver COMEX inventories of approx 78 million ounces are about the same as those in '82 ( when silver was approx. $11 bucks, post-Hunt Bros. manipulation ) . Meanwhile, silver consumption has increased significantly from that date to reflect the needs of a much greater global population.

Yet, the investment houses ( led by Merrill Lunch ) and hedge funds keep shorting the hell out of the metal. There will come a point where MOST silver traders will demand physical delivery of their metal ( just as Mr. Buffett is doing ) and that development will end the great silver shorters scam.

However, once silver starts shooting upward, then expect that gold will come along for the ride. A rapidly rising silver price should get people investigating the yellow metal at which point they will discover the meager physical inventories of Au. Then, somebody ( or some consortium ) will probably pull a Buffett move in the gold market, purchasing huge volumes of the stuff and taking delivery. Leased gold will be recalled ( if it can be ) , CB gold sales will disappear, and Voila.
Gold at 600 or much better.

Yet, there is another scenario where gold demand would lead silver demand: the greatest threat to suppressed PM prices is that, in a financial panic, retail/whosesale gold demand in America will explode through the roof. We are already witnessing inklings of such demand as American gold retail sales are rapidly mounting.

A financial panic triggering the public's demand for gold would present a scenario in which most likely a surging gold price leads the silver price.

IMHO

Thanks.

F*

too much bandwidth don't ya know...

And head down when current account deficit gets to great and foreign money is scared out of this market. When? I don't know. Does another Poster??

...to over 79 million ounces today.

That would account for silver's decline today and should be bullish for silver tomorrow ( if you believe APH's theory that fundamentals are of no importance on future PM prices since they are already factored into the existent price ) .

APH, right or wrong? We all watch silver market tomorrow, yes?

As Al Pacino would say, "Hoohah."

Thanks.

F*

Comforting to know someonelse is catching KNIVES for a change.

Farfel, Jack, Merci pour votre rponse.

Ken Starr and 10 000 other US lawyers going home tonight.

Re: Elliot Wave Analysis. I studied "long and hard" about two years ago for about 6 months, trying to gain some small ability to use e. Wave analysis. I do not consider myself stupid, I am a graduate mechanical engineer; but I was unsucessful. I have studied the markets for almost 30 years, but E. Waves only make me seasick! In hind sight they work beautifully every time! My only other comment on E. Wave Analysis is relative to the "Yellow Submarine": Best I can tell wave analysis it don't work underwater neither!
Re holding losing positions, for inexperienced lurkers: DON'T. Set yourself a percentage of loss you can live with ( A MENTAL STOP ) ; when it is reached, SELL, especially gold investments. If you bought at the top of this gold cycle, IMHO, this advice still holds. If you are down 50% now how much will you be down if the investment goes down another 10%, 20%, 30% etc??? Money management applies to ANY investment, especially commodities ( and gold is being treated as a commodity now in spite of all our collective gold bug wishes ) .
Re selling climaxes: NEM may be experiencing a selling climax, but maybe not. I asked this august group about the NEM decline back when it declined past the January low. Methinks something else is causing this. A gold sector selling climax IMO, will involve most miners big and small. BTW, HM UP!!! today, the German still buying??
Best Regards; Mtn Bear ( still bearish )

Re catching knives: Right ON!!! All the Yuppie fund managers they gonna ned lotsa bandages and some even new hands or other 'natomy parts.

Someone calling himself Farfel is all over K2.

"Feel Like A Woman?"

On a Trans-Atlantic flight, a plane passes through a severe
storm. The turbulence is awful, and things go from bad to
worse when one wing is struck by lightning.

One woman in particular loses it. Screaming, she stands
up in the front of the plane. "I'm too young to die!" she wails.
Then she yells, "Well, if I'm going to die, I want my last
minutes on Earth to be memorable! I've had plenty of sex in
my life, but no one has ever made me really feel like a
woman! Well, I've had it! Is there ANYONE on this plane
who can make me feel like a WOMAN??"

For a moment there is silence. Everyone has forgotten
his/her own immediate peril, and they all stare, riveted, at the
desperate woman in the front of the plane.

Then, a man stands up in the rear of the plane.

"I can make you feel like a woman," he says.

The guy gorgeous. Tall, built, with long, flowing black hair and
jet black eyes, he starts to walk slowly up the aisle, slowly
unbuttoning his shirt one button at a time. No one moves.

The woman is breathing heavily in anticipation as the strange
man approaches.

He removes his shirt. Muscles ripple across his chest as
he reaches her, and extends the arm holding his shirt to the
trembling woman. He then bends over to her and whispers:

"Here.... Iron this."

F* good to see you, hope we can keep it out of the woods this time, hope you had a good vacation and are feeling better.

Pierre, is yo buddy Le Neek Rouge!! Is gud to see ya,glad you joined us

F* at K-2 said to say hello...RJ is over there also.

How black can it get? I guess that depends on your personal perspective. I do not see the darkness as others do. I see opportunity. Just my veiw.

Do as you must to sleep at night...be true to your own mind. Wait until the herd is faced with the same fate...not pretty.

Tom

Foreign investors will buy bonds instead. That in turn will make our market's decline less percentage wise than that of Europe. While on this topic, anyone know of a good way for a U.S. citizen to short the German DAX. Any good German ADRs or other suggestions.

...my apologies for the previous rant ( 404'd before I could explain myself ) .

Naturally, I have the greatest respect for men like yourself who served their country. THE GREATEST!

Thanks.

F*

P.S. I hear Spielberg's "SAVING PRIVATE RYAN" really shows war like it is. Have you seen it?

I'll think long and hard on that.: )

Tom

A rising or falling dollar is not actually a rising or falling dollar in terms of value - it is a rising or falling dollar relative to another currency. In point of fact, currencies around the world could change slightly relatively to one another, yet change significantly relative to a McDonalds happy meal.

It's difficult to say whether the dollar is up, or if it's just not as far down as everything else.

Earl thanks for taking the time in replying yesterday

Bon Jour Red Neek mon ami! She's good to here's frum you! Pierre hope
everting is well. You still chase all da girl on Alaska? I'm ask Mr. Bart for
to call me Pierre, mais him say he got no Pierre's left. All him had left was
littledick, and Rumpled. Pierre taught on dis for long time, den pick Rumpled.

Tings are to go well on da sex club. Pierre him he's now study to one day
becomes head towel boy.

She's not look good for da Golden and Silvers, mais Pierre not worries,
buy more. I'm still say da worse case of scenearrows is Golden $255-260
XAU-50.

Anyways dats all dats news for Pierre.
SALUT MON CHUM
HAPPY GOLDEN AND SILVERS

The lawyers may have left town but how many lawsuits did they leave behind.
The Royal York bus to Pearson was only paying 25% exchange a few weeks ago..... nice way to make money.

sorry Bart

Talked to Hannibal the Cannibal...says he has no appetite for WJC...says he smells like fish.

How do you get there?

USS Dowtanic foundering...
But still launching depth charges at the yellow submarine.

what the heck is he buying now?

http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/9808/03/berkshire_a/

Some places were only giving 10% in the convention area. Guess there is no law to break on conversion. Anyway I get my Kew Beach boardwalk back tomorow morning and the lawyers and Carribana folks can all leave with my blessing and at any price they can afford to pay.

click on Gold discussion group for Investors at the top of this page just below the gold and silver prices.

In my previous post I sort of reminded myself that a rising dollar is only rising relative to other currencies, but not necessarily relative to any actual value. I thought I would explore that for a second ...

Could it be that if you thought of Gold as a stable value, the dollar is in fact increasing in value, while the value of gold remains constant or decreases ( over sold ) and appears "coupled" with the Yen ? The Yen is falling in value, and it seems like Gold falls right along with it. Combine that with the dollar actually increasing in value at the moment ( other countries are using it, and people are trading their stocks in for dollars ) and you've got an over-valued dollar right now. Way over-valued in all likelyhood.

That being the case, that the price of the dollar is in fact inflated, wouldn't it be prudent to look for a "market top" in the dollar ? Personally, I'm not used to treating the dollar as a commodity, but it sort of is. If there were a "market top" in the dollar, wouldn't want to sell it at the peak ? Maybe, say, sell your dollars for gold perhaps ? Or maybe real estate ? Sort of hold your "money" in something that isn't going to go lower, say, like gold or anything else that is pretty stable in value. When you think about it like that, Gold really doesn't look like a bad investment right now - it would even seem a rather logical place to hold your money at the present time - convert it back to dollars when the dollar drops off to a cheaper commodity.

Actually, now I'm thinking I shouldn't be sitting in cash right now, and that it would be more wise for me to sell my dollars while they're up and put the value into something that's a lot less expensive.

If people liquidate their stock holdings and move into the dollar, won't that push the valuations on the dollar even higher ?

I dunno, just a different way of looking at it I guess. I'm sort of playing with it in my head. Cheers .. Envy

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.94. The 50 day moving average is 30.70.

....pssstt

...pass it on...

...pssst

Pass it on...

Shame on you...geez...keep it up...a good yuk never hurt anybody...

XAU/Spot Ratio = .217. The 50 day moving average is .240. There have been only 7 occasions where the XAU closed in the 61.XX range. Ranked accoeding to the gold price, today is #6. The #1 ranking was on July 28, 1986, with a gold price of $354.80, an XAU of 61.54, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .173

I haven't heard anyone ask why ML did not take her dress to
the dry cleaners. What was she saving it for? An insurance
policy?

....psstt

....Pass it on..

Gold/Silver Ratio = 52.79. The 50 day moving average is 54.81

Spot gold $292.62; spot silver $5.35; XAU 70.14

perhaps he's buying cash .

I thought your outburst was out of character for you,no I havent seen that movie, I generaly dont care to watch movies about combat by people who were never in it. Having been a combat photographer myself. BTW my wife has just been selected for a high level job in Garmisch-Partenkirchen Germany and we will be moving there soon, if you ever get there maybe we can meet. Jere Smith

Isn't it time for a friendly little war in Iraq ... always worked as a pick-me-up in the past!

Thanks for the help !

I'm surprised there isn't more talk about Buffet selling his zero coupons. If bonds aren't a safe haven then it's on to PM's. Hey SWP1, I assume that post means that you THINK Buffet may be buying Gold, right? Or do you have some info?

Cheap money at these paper US$ prices. Gold price in five years? Not $280's...maybe $50 or maybe $5,000. We watch this ne...nevermind

Tom

August Gold has seen big price swings. Let's look at a bad August.
In Aug of 1993 gold opened down $20 one day. Kindda discouraging, eh?

However, can indeed do very well in the hot summer month.
Consider the following.

AUGUST August Gold Examples ( Gold Futures ) -

August 1979:

The gold low was $283 on 8/6/79. During the next 41 trading days it had
soared 51% to $426.

August 1982:

The gold low was $334 on 8/11/82. During the next 18 trading days it had
soared 44% to $481.

August 1986:

The gold low was $361 on 8/01/86. During the next 35 trading days it had
soared 20% to $435.

August 1993:

Now, let's look at Aug 1993, when gold opened down $20 one day. Just to
think of it makes a man quiver in his boots.

In the 4.5 months proceeding the $20 one day drop, the shiny had already zoomed 24% from $328 to $406 on 8/2/93 ( immediately prior to the $20 one day plunge ) . HELL, it deserved to drop after such a run-up.

BUT THAT AIN'T THE CASE TODAY.

Since gold's low of $278 in December it has gained a miserly 3% to Friday's close of $286 - a pittance gain of a paltry 8 bucks during the previous seven months.

Based on historical results, and mitigated by current conditions of the paper and Precious metals markets, the gold price seems to me in throes of confirming the bottom area - just as the DOW is in the final throes of confirming its top area.Methinks both levels may not be seen for many moons to come.

Possibility of Another AUGUST August Gold Rally -

It is NOT a leap of faith to state today's August Gold is more similar in conditions to 1979, 1982 and 1986, than to August 1993. Subsequently, let's assume we may see a repeat performance of the average of the first three Augusts. For our hypothetical I will use $278 as August 1998's low ( in case its currentdown momentum causes the noble metal to spike down to support ) . The average gain in gold's value during the three August periods is 38% within 31 trading days ( about six weeks ) . If indeed gold finally bounces from its support low of $278 - and does a dj vu performance - it could well scale the heights to $384 by late September.

Whatever gold decides to do, historically, August wasn't a bad time to do it in. In any case I'll bet we will FIRST see an Upside $20 day before we see another $20 Down day.

Spot gold $302.11; spot silver $5.62; XAU 80.01; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.83

She is good to hears from you too mon ami! Mah Miss Lois is gone to da GOOOODD jobs in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in Allemaigne!! Maybe yo comes to see us dere? Viagra is still work good and de French Lick is Better yet!! Bon Jours,Toujours Pret. Red Neeck

I have a crystal ball..

Ok ... so maybe he's buying the Euro...

Really - like you said - what else is there - the guy's no dummy.

I only wish I had some money to buy gold.

SWP1

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980803/commoditie_1.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980803/international/stories/russia_economy_1.html

Silver and gold.

Tom

so now I'm getting a little bit of a clue *grin* - so when is the dollar likely to hit a "market top" in value and what are the factors that will contribute to that ? What will "break" the dollar ?

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/story.html?s=z/reuters/980803/international/stories/china_2.html

?

in our president stumbles. This may happen very soon this month!
Remember back in the first part of this year when the news broke
about the Monica/Klinton affair and there was immediate talk of
impeachment? If my memory serves me correctly, they blamed that on
the short term downward correction of the U.S. dollar. Could this
Aug 18th ( date right? ) testifying by Klinton be the trigger? I think
so! Of course, so many other things could and will trigger the dollar
fall, according to many sources at this site. I agree!!
I guess you could say that I think August may be a big turn-around
month for Precious Metals. Any thoughts/comments?
Fox-Man

Gold is treated like paper money by the banks in some respects...it earns interest and is borrowed. This is my hedge for a coming ( or ongoing ) currency crisis.

Who knows?

Tom

All: Disturbing thought, isn't it? Are the foreign investors buying treasuries because the US markets look less attractive? Perhaps. That should make interest rates go down more. Last I checked, they were steady, but trending down. All the world needs right now is a stronger US dollar. But -- you don't always get what you want.
Someone posted today ( I think ) that the volume on the dollar rallies was dropping. If so, the foreign demand for US funds may be weakening. Regardless I agree with whoever ( blooper? ) said that the US dollar will not go down until SEAsia recovers. I would expend that by saying that currently the 'flight to safety' is still the US dollar. This trend will not change until a foreign economic powerhouse starts to compete with the US. If there is no competition, and the US markets continue to worsen, the US dollar will continue to rise, and the world will continue to head toward world-wide deflation ( or worse ) . Shades of the 1925-1929 era.
Quick -- someone please tell me where in the world an economic powerhouse is going to rev up to reverse our slide down the slippery slopes of recession or worse. If China needs 18% annual growth, who is the buyer, and what market does China expect to overtake?
All: Does anyone know if Europes economic recovery is really strong enough to support the rest of the world if the US slips a bit this year?
I don't like this scenario one bit.

// -- COMMENTARY -- //

What a difference a couple of weeks make. Looking back on our issue on
7/19, we said "The market is now clearly in meltup mode." As you have
undoubtedly already noticed, the market is no longer melting up.

We also pointed out that the market had some weak underpinnings. The
market internals were lagging the market and not confirming the rally.
This had us looking for some market weakness. So far, so good. But we
did NOT expect that weakness to carry as far as it has without a strong
rally.

So far the damage has been painful, but pretty well contained as far as
the major averages are concerned. The price swings have been very large

on an absolute basis, but with the market around 9000 even small
percentage changes seem very large. The SP500 is down 5.6% and the DJIA
is down 5.0%.

Not too bad yet, but we see some very ominous undercurrents in the
market. First off, the market's inability to rally for more than a day
during this selloff is very troubling. The downdrafts have created some
very oversold readings on our short term indicators, the type of
readings that usually bring on a "buy the dips" type of rally. The fact
that we haven't gotten such a rally in the last couple of weeks tells us
that the character of this market might well be changing.

Another source of gloom in the current market is those weak market
internals. So far this decline has been confirmed by all our internals
measures. By many of our measures this is the most oversold market since
April, 1994. These type of oversold internals readings are usually seen
at market BOTTOMS, not when we are just two weeks and 5% removed from an
all time high.

Well that is quite a bit of doom and gloom. Long time readers know that
we ALWAYS look at both sides of the coin. And we are contrarians at
heart. So we have to look at the bullish case. The market is VERY
oversold, and there are a lot of "buy the dips" fans out there. These
types of oversold levels have consistently resulted in strong rallies
for the last 16 years of this bull market. Is it different this time? It
just might be, and we are feeling very cautious. To us, this coming week
looks like it will be a very telling one. By all rights, the market is
due a strong bounce that lasts more than a day, and it should come soon.
If it doesn't, however, the DJIA could quickly fall to 8570 or lower.

I am heartened to read the stats on August Gold rallies, because when the Lewinski Immunity Deal broke over the media, I jumped into a gold mutual fund ( FDPMX ) with both feet--using my wife's money. And, my golden brothers, some 5% lower, she is mad at me. Please post more encouraging prophecy that I can show her.

DUST...not til then.

Tom

Now I'm all curious and stuff - what is there out there in market-land that is closely correlated ( bound ) to the dollar that moves opposite to it's value ? Precious metals might, but isn't there something better ? What is likely to see the highest gain in value from a falling dollar ?

What is the elusive anti-dollar ? *grin*

I bet a bunch of people are watching it whatever it is.

will only hasten the need for China to devalue the YUAN! The implications of such a move near term are too frightening to contemplate for the world economy! Q3 US corporate earnings? Forget about 'em! Pray they ain't losses! CRB at 6 year lows! THE BEAR IS HERE AND EB HUNGRY!

Prediction of the Day:
"Looks like the DOW will end a little lower on the day, about even"-- ( sorry Gollum, couldn't resist : )

Tell your wife it's only 5%. Many goldbugs have lost MUCH more than that. How's that for encouraging? Actually the truth is that if gold gets moving a 5% loss could be made up in a matter of hours. Even a 50% loss ( of which I have some ) could be made up in days if GOLD starts a good run.

Since this forum is for gold investors and not market analysts,I would like to take the oportunity to provide investors of faith in the Yellow Metal with this little tune of inspiration.Do not use it as investmant advice,but more of an idealism of conviction.

Stood there boldly

Sweatin' in the sun.

Felt like a million,

Felt like number one.

The height of summer,

I'd never felt that strong,

Like a rock.

I was eighteen,

Didn't have a care,

Working for peanuts,

Not a dime to spare.

But I was lean and

Solid everywhere

Like a rock.

My hands were steady.

My eyes were clear and bright.

My walk had purpose.

My steps were quick and light.

And I held firmly

To what I felt was right

Like a rock.

Like a rock, I was strong as I could be.

Like a rock, nothin' ever got to me.

Like a rock, I was something to see.

Like a rock.

And I stood arrow straight,

Unencumbered by the weight

Of all these hustlers and their schemes.

I stood proud, I stood tall,

High above it all.

I still believed in my dreams.

Twenty years now.

Where'd they go?

Twenty years,

I don't know.

I sit and I wonder sometimes

Where they've gone.

And sometimes late at night

When I'm bathed in the firelight,

The moon comes callin' a ghostly white,

And I recall,

I recall.

Like a rock, standin' arrow straight.

Like a rock, chargin' from the gate.

Like a rock, carryin' the weight.

Like a rock.

Oh, like a rock, the sun upon my skin.

Like a rock, hard against the wind.

Like a rock, I see myself again.

Like a rock.

Oh, like a rock.

Oh....

President Clinton has Monica arrested for steeling Hillary's dress. : )
however Hillary may now have problems as the FBI announced that the
body fluids found on the dress belonged to Janet Reno : )

just hope it is in my lifetime.: ) Look around, how is paper doing?

Got fear...wait for the rest of America to feel it...not pretty.

Tom

Anyone who wants to make money in a DEFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET has to SHORT STOCKS OR STOCK INDEXES! Or buy a hedge fund like BEAR-X, Ursa or RSCOX!
Otherwise, until the panic phase begins, when the dollar is challenged by the EURO and foreigners start pullin' their dollars back home, it'll be the ONLY way to make money in this market! I know it sucks to have to sell America, but if you don't some smart Asian guy will! JUST DO IT!

Did you not frequent JDD's StrInvest forum in days of old? You are very close to my thinking re CEF. Central Fund is my way of going physical. I held it through the last down turn and will buy more if it approaches the $3.50 level. Others see http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=CEF&d=1ym

When Buffett sells his 4.6 Billion in Coupon Bonds in '98 I have to think we could come up with the why to this puzzle here. Did he need the money to pay for a recent purchase? Anyone know what gives on this? Maybe he doesn't trust the govt? If so, he is not alone.

...my favorite is, "WE'VE GOT TONIGHT."

Whenever you played that one, NO girl could resist. She'd hop into bed in an instant.

Several other guys with comparable voices: Joe Cocker, Van Morrison,
Benny Mardones ( "Into the Night" ) , and Springsteen.

Thanks.

F*

Look here, Lazarus,
unless you plan to rise again, from the 'dead',
you'd better sell that fund now,
if you want the marriage to last.


Foeget us 'golden-boys';

we've lost our 'shine'.

( Meanwhile, back at the 'ok-corral' - full of "mustangs"
from the ranch,
were taking real nevada-casino bets on:
$200.00 gold &/or 10,000 on the DJIA...
both/either,
before...
'Happy Halloween' ! )

Taking wagers

...I went to Erlangen ( outside Nuremburg ) for an old girlfriend's birthday party.

Sixty people got drunk as skunks, then everybody slept over on the floor.

Memories of wild youth...

That was before East. Germany united with the West.

Anyway, I don't expect to go there soon but I hope things work out well for you and your wife.

Thanks.

F*

WB don't need the cash! He's simply afraid that US interest rates have bottomed and will be headed higher either to KEEP the Japanese buyin' our paper, or because the Japanese HAVE TO SELL our paper to save their economy from depression! I would do the same thing had I as much interest rate exposure to US paper as he does!

Greetings Crazy...With great misfortune, I am the wife of Lazarus;the man that blew 20,000.00 of my money on gold stocks. Thanks for the encouraging words, but somehow I still feel forsaken. If were 20,000. in actual gold like american eagles, I would be excited, but stocks? Oh well, not much I can do about it now, but maybe sell and take a loss, or wait and maybe lose it all.
Thanks for your input...colleen

No, never been to JDD's. Learned of CEF here @ Kitco.

Tom

Unless you are totally convinced this is the absolute bottom for gold and hard assets ( what is that smell? ) stay away from RSCOX!!!!! It is a very good proxy for gold, which means it has been down, dowwnnn---dooowwwwwnnnnn--- see: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RSCOX&d=1ym

Try this recipe --

Ingredients:
1 Computer w/ Basic Spreadsheet program
Any quantity actual gold prices
A pinch or two of time ( per taste )

Directions:
Starting with BS program, keystroke actual gold prices ( i.e. London PM fixes available via computer @ Kitco ) , creating a splendid raw database. From this, create new sets of numbers -- relationships, ratios, moving averages, inert averages, whatever. Experiment with BS charting feature to arrive at graph that yields upward-angled curves and lines. Show to wife, saying, "This is the wise prophecy by which we gave that man our FRNs." Check wife's response. If unimpressed, say, "Oops," and turn chart upside-down. When she frowns and gawks at you quizzically, take back the chart and warmly say, "That's okay, honey. This is technical analysis."

Welcome back to the land of " The Milked And Funny ".

Let's see what drops " Like A Rock " in the next few weeks ahead,shall we?

Bob Segar........one of my faves.Silver Bullet Band.........Yup.

Is BART's 283.30 correct?

I just saw some charts that show what can happen to the coupon bonds when interest rates go up, and they were pretty ugly - maybe WB just sees a possible interest rate hike in the FED future. Could be that simple.

thanks for the comments on the dollar

Crazytimes, Jonesy, Goldfevr--

Thanx for your August counsel! We're going to retain our long postion in the gold fund--at least for the time. Go gold--please--go gold!

Here's a good nanotech take off point.

Here's the url, too.
http://nano.xerox.com/nano/

For all my detractors out there, you now have these anagrams to choose from in distorting/ridiculing my illustrious handle:

FARFEL ( ANAGRAMS )

Raffle. Elf far.
Lf fear. Flea rf.
Leaf rf. Fare lf.
Elf Fra. Flare f.
A rf elf. Feral f.
Frae lf. A lf ref.
El far f. L fear f.
Ear lf f. Ale rf f.
Lf are f. Lf era f.
Real f f. Lf far e.
L far ef. Flea R f.
Leaf R f. Fare L f.
Elf AR f. Re a lf f.
Lea rf f. Earl f f.
Eff La R. Eff L AR.
La ref f. La rf ef.
Lf rf Ea. Lf AR ef.
A R elf f. El Fra f.
Ae lf rf. L frae f.
Lf Fra e. L Fra ef.
A rf el f. A L ref f.
Eff a L R. A lf rf e.
A lf R ef. A L rf ef.
Re La f f. Ear L f f.
Ale R f f. L are f f.
L era f f. L far f e.
Re a L f f. Lea R f f.
El AR f f. La rf f e.
La R f ef. Lf AR f e.
Lf R f Ea. L rf f Ea.
L AR f ef. Ae lf R f.
Ae L rf f. L Fra f e.
A R el f f. A lf R f e.
A L rf f e. A L R f ef.
La R f f e. L AR f f e.
L R f f Ea. Ae L R f f.
A L f R e f.

Thanks.

F*

New Zealand opens down 27.21 ( 1.29 percent )

Anybody got 'em?

Are you / were you at 164? Advise please.

Sorry, the number means nothing to me.

Read one article from Bridgenews :
Updated Mon Aug 3 04:48 ET

Hong Kong Stks Review: Dn 4.8% on Japan; local concerns


By Jon Cox, Bridge News
Hong Kong--Aug 3--Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended the day down 4.8%
buffeted by regional concerns, namely the weakness of the Japanese yen and
concerns over the rise in local interest rates and the weak economy.
The Hang Seng closed at 7,552.77 points, down 383.43 points with volume at
HK $4.74 billion compared to HK $3.70 billion Friday.
* * *
HSBC Holdings' interim results, released after the market closed, also
put pressure on the Hang Seng today with investors concerned that the
results will be worse than expected.
Indeed, the decline in HSBC Holdings--down HK $10.00 at $179.00--which
accounts for around one-third of the Hang Seng index provided much of the
impetus for today's losses.
Hedge funds are again thought to be in Hong Kong markets looking to
profit from local concerns to sell heavily in the September futures
contract, in particular, and blue-chip stocks, such as HSBC, on the Hang
Seng generally.
The weakness in the yen is causing concerns that China's authorities
will be forced to devalue the yuan in order to regain competitiveness and
meet the country's 8% growth target. Red chips and H-shares ended the day
down 4.3% and 4.9%, respectively.
However, losses were recorded across the board ahead of the release of
first quarter gross domestic product data with properties, utilities and
the commercial and industrial sector all recording heavy losses.
Late bottom-fishing failed to provide much in the way of a recovery for
the index, although Tuesday could see a technical rebound depending on the
market's reaction to interim results of HSBC Holdings and the GDP data.
Following are key indices and key individual movers as at the close of
trading at 1600 local time ( 0800 GMT ) :

( Prices and turnover in Hong Kong dollars )

LEVEL CHANGE
Hang Seng Index 7,552.77 -383.43
Hang Seng Index Aug futures 7,495 -370.00
Hang Seng China Affiliated Corp Index 667.83 -29.77
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 333.45 -17.34
Turnover $4.74 bln prev $3.70 bln
HSBC Holdings Plc. [HK;5] $179.00 -$10.00
( HK $7.7480--US $1 ) End

Australia opens down 4.3 ( 0.16 percent )
Japan opens down 143.85 ( 0.89 percent )

Corporation is an artificial being - invisible, intangible, and existing only in contemplation of law. Being the mere creature of law, it possesses only those properties which the charter of its creation confers upon it, either expressly or as incidental to its very existence. These are such as are supposed best calculated to effect the object for which it was created.

Among the most important are immortality ( in the legal sense, that it may be made capable of indefinite duration ) , and if the expression may be allowed, individuality - properties by which a perpetual succession of many persons are considered the same, and may act as a single individual.

They enable a Corporation to manage its own affairs, and to hold property without the perplexing intricacies, the hazardous and endless necessity of perpetual conveyances for the purpose of transmitting it from hand to hand.

It is chiefly for the purpose of clothing bodies of men in succession with these qualities and capacities that Corporations were invented and are in use. By these means a perpetual succession of individuals are capable of acting for the promotion of the particular object, like one immortal being.

Gods Gold

With the burgeoning of corporations into pools and pools into trusts. Rockefellers plan to fulfill Gods wish, that he grow rich had the simplicity of genius. Rockefeller wanted more control, more centralization; authority, power, and the invention of the trust were the answer to his need. In 1882, acting secretly, as was his custom, Rockefeller persuaded the stockholders of his associated companies to hand over their stock to nine trustees, receiving trust certificates in exchange, which included himself, his brother, and his friends, and with the stock to give the trustees absolute control in managing the whole vast enterprise.

Thus one entity replaced more than forty and with that fact the trust was born.

Soon the organization moved to New York and with its invincible formula for monopoly, it was not long until it had virtual airtight control of the American industry, as well as drawing mammoth profits from all quarters of the world.

From their headquarters in the small old-fashioned building at 140 Pearl Street the supreme council of an economic empire sat together in conference, like princes of the Roman Church. Here in utmost privacy, confidential news brought by agents or informers throughout the world was discussed and business policies determined .... Freed of all moral scruples, curiously informed of everything, they were prompted by a sense of the worlds realities which differed strangely from that of the man in the street.

Living in such lordly splendor, the rich began to lose their caution, giving out the secrets of their statecraft. It made no difference to them, they said, whether a Republican or Democrat was elected. They owned both.

The wealthy Frederick Townsend Martin frankly declared:

....It matters not one iota what political party is in power or what President holds the reins of office. We are not politicians or public thinkers; we are the rich; we own America; we got it, God knows how, but we intend to keep it if we can by throwing all the tremendous weight of our support, our influence, our money, our political connections, our purchased senators, our hungry congressmen, our public-speaking demagogues into the scale against any legislature, any political platform, any presidential campaign that threatens the integrity of our estate....The class I represent cares nothing for politics. In a single season a plutocratic leader hurled his influence and his money into the scale to elect a Republican governor on the Pacific coast and a Democratic governor on the Atlantic coast.

FWIW ... Take Care ..Mushrooms-R-Us

Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know.

1. Make a profit on a GOLD investment.

2. Become proficient in this:

BOOGALOO25-32 on balls of both feet, unwind one full turn CCW on these 8 beats.
Using Right arm, make a "lariat" over your head for four full loops
as you turn to the music. Use your hips for a circling motion as you
turn and wind up with the weight on Left foot.

And you thought studio was un-hip.

But it was the general agreement that gold would be the first to recover after the storm. I mean what would you want after all of your paper investments became worthless overnight? More paper or a few gold coin?HMMMMMM? Maybe just bread, beef and eggs?
Go gold!!! Someday.

From The Speeches Of Abraham Lincoln:

 All that harms labor is treason to America. No line can be drawn between these two. If any man tells you he loves America, yet he hates labor, he is a lier. If a man tells you he trusts America, yet fears labor, he is a fool.

 I am glad to see that a system of labor prevails under which laborers can strike when they want to ...I like the system which lets a man quit when he wants to and wish it might prevail everywhere.

 The strongest bond of human sympathy, outside of the family relation, should be one uniting all working people of all nations, tongues and kindreds.

1888---President Grover Cleveland, Annual Message to Congress:

 As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the existence of trusts, combinations and monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the peoples masters...

1913---President Woodrow Wilson in The New Freedom, New York 1913

The masters of the government of the United states are the combined capitalists and manufacturers of the United States.

April 29 1938----President Roosevelt told Congress:

 The statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity.

 Close financial control, through interlocking spheres of influence over channels of investments, and through the use of financial devices like holding companies and strategic minority interests, creates close control of the business policies of enterprise which masquerade as independent units. That heavy hand of integrated financial and management control lies upon the strategic areas of American industry. Private enterprise is ceasing to be free enterprise and is becoming a cluster of private collectivism; masking itself as a system of free enterprise after the American model, it is fast becoming a concealed cartel system after the European model.


June 1947 --- President Truman

Taft-Hartley Law ( to rid labor of Communist domination )
...................................to repeal
The Wagner Labor Act ( 1935 - labor right of collective bargaining )

Said Representative Donald L. OToole of New York: The bill was written sentence by sentence, paragraph by paragraph, page by page, by the National Association of Manufacturers. ( NAM )

While John McCormack of Massachusetts said the drive for its passage was  the most vicious kind of demonstration of corporate lobbying. He revealed that the bill had not been written by Congressmen or Senators but by such enemies of labor as William Ingles, a registered lobbyist for General Electric, Allis-Chalmers, Inland Steel, and J.I. Case and Company; Theodore Isserman, lawyer for the Chrysler Corporation; Mark Jones, a promoter said to be connected with the Rockefeller interests; and Jerry Morgan, a corporate lawyer.

This battery of corporate reaction was advised and helped by lawyers and consultants of the NAM and the USofA Chamber of Commerce. ( founded & funded by NAM ) . Senator Joseph N. Ball of Minnesota tacitly admitted that the bill might go far in destroying labor, declaring, The bill will bear most heavily on unions. I see no point in trying to dodge that fact. And Senator Taft of Ohio said: The bill is not a milk toast bill.

Buffett buying silver is interesting...Buffett selling bonds is scary. After thinking long and hard Im scared. This equals paper money going down the tubes. High interest rates with paper US$s losing value.

Add his comments about the stock market values tied to earnings and the picture is clearer. Not a good sign if he is correct. Yes?

Tom

Well BGO actually went up today and just as I was about to sell the dog. Guess I will keep it a little longer !

I just came across a real interesting site [ which means everyone here knew about it a month ago] probably.

Free real time quotes and all kind of good stuff....

http://209.67.31.6/boards/

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/focus_braz_1.html

Last Week...Yeltsin appoints first Communist Party member to cabinet post since the party's overthrow in 1991, said to be in the interest of reconciliation..Could not find this in US IMF happy press. Former Soviet Pravda freer and perhaps more truthful than US corporate controlled media today. Big Biz are welfare IMF mothers.

For those who bought Silver.
If the Price of Gold dropped $25
it would not equal the loss inflicted
by a 50 cent drop in the White Precious.
which is what we have had in the last 10 days.

But as gloomy as it is this night
the future may bring more gloom for both camps.
Best to batten down the hatches and
get rid of some ballast before the storm hits.

That was aweseome! Thanks for posting that message.

I'm so happy to live in this country, a country where any man can take on a dream, gather together people and resources, and build an empire though cooperation and mutual benefit. Even more, I'm really relieved that we have such a long history of such endevours, undertakings that government is powerless to stop, that labor cannot seize, and that follows the laws of the Universe to such an extent that a man, through hard work and planning, can create wealth and abundance for everyone he chooses to share it with.

That rocked.

I love America.

For the United States - as in its government...
a major mucking out and timber replacement is in order.

Americans will see to this task.
While others will sit by cry over benefits lost.

Long live America!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980803/lihir_gold_1.html

That you do not slay those who enable the "downtrodden" to enjoy a standard of living that permits them the time, money, energy and freedom to complain about being downtrodden.
Where did the microwaves, vcrs, atvs, suvs, frozen delights, and the Internet come from? On whose backs do we ride?

Earl, Could you post one of these charts? I don't understand what you mean by a 1 bar simple ma? Hide the bar? I'm confused.

Did anyone find anything good out of today? PAASF got killed, no bidders at all. I expect the same tomorrow. S.A.s got killed also. I expect the same tomorrow. Whoever said that the bottom is here when all hope is lost was wrong!! All hope is gone now and I'm sure we are nowhere near the bottom. To top it all off - I can't get my new ultra wide Tomahawk HD to boot. What a day.

When its price finally drops into the low 2 digits.
the checks provided me by cruel corporate America
will enable me to join the ranks of Goldbugs like ROR.

You guys are great, but words like capitulation and resignation are comming to me reading todays posts. Unfortunately, this is what had to happen to signify the "Ringing the Bell" bottom. You guys arent exempt. Actually, considering that this is a PM site, your the ones that had to throw in the towel before the low would be in. Are you Happy, now you've done it. The contrarian in me is just SCREAMING. Question: Which of these stocks, from a fundamental perspective, would benifit most as gold bottoms in here and begins to rise?

Not close to a bottom? I think we are...for whatever that will get you...not much!

Do what you must...stay and play or fold and wait.

Donald...how many days under $290 now?

Tom

Hey Grizz,
How nasty will this storm get, in your respected opinion?
Indian summer is fast waning;
liquidity is swirling away, and draining...

Would $200.00 gold be beyond your view, and 'window-pane'....?

If the storm strikes severe enuf,
few will there be
with king cash enuf
to weather the strife

Sincerely,
David
goldfever@k-online.com

.

...really hard to tell what he has in mind.

The odds favor he is either:

1 ) Raising Cash for some unknown purchase ( another DOW company? )
2 ) Using the cash to buy more silver ( and/or gold )
3 ) Possibly converting the cash into another currency
4 ) Fill in the blank.

What does it mean for the POG or POS.

Who the hell really knows?

I make NO short-term predictions about PM's any more.

Thanks.

F*

be patient
learn from our mistakes

the golden bear may just be coming out of hibernation

I grew up picking cotton and hauling hay. At the end of the day, four brothers and a sister took turns bathing in a number three wash tub.
No electricity, and the food we ate, we grew, with the effort of the entire family. These were good times, close times, a time when we shared everything.

Maybe, just maybe, this country needs a good old fashion dose of reality.
I say bring it on because morality has flown from the shores of the once greatest nation on earth.

After all, the shine of gold pales in comparison to the shine in the eyes of a happy child.

All "IS" vanity and vexation of the spirit eh!
That which is crooked, cannot be made straight.

"downtrodden" & On whose backs do we ride?
Yes, I would like to know the definition of "downtrodden" Yes, I also would like to know on whose backs we 'ALL" ride.

Life is a happening, some good and some bad, a challenge, yet, we accept control, as a means to explain our existence.

True freedom is what? maybe a 'downtrodden" concept eh!

FWIW. Take Care.

Yeh, That thar gold bar, he mought smell a big Dow storm abrewin an 'cide to sleep in that thar cozy den awhilst longer!

How the hell would I know. Maybe I should call and have lunch?: )

Think the Yen would rise if they sold US paper?

Tom

Don't get mad--GET OUT! Buy some BEAR-X and sleep like a baby until your sweetheart returns! Yeh, Gold is a metallic whore who sleeps around alot with paper, but in the end, she ALWAYS comes back home to the papa who loves her NO MATTER WHAT! She's also an expensive whore to keep! But if you are faithful to her and are able to forget all her many infidelities--she will eventually reward you beyond your wildest dreams--tis the only way! Can't live with her and can't live without her! She's an enigma wrapped up in a mystery and shrouded by a riddle by gar. Never could understand her! Sometimes can't stand her! But I own her and she owns me and when the time is ripe we'll make some whoopie together, nicht wahr? : )

Predicted gold to tank some months ago. Was berrated and persecuted for my trouble. Am expecting to see at least $US 278 and then possibly 260.

I am protected by low Aussie dollar. Will consider options at end of August.

The bear is roaring. When the bull comes, it will be big. But that will be either in 6 months or 3 years. Who knows??

Live Long and Prosper.

Now that was just the tonic needed ,laugh I'm in tears

go gold

cpo-uk

I'd like to respond to what you wrote, but forgive me, I'm not exactly sure what you were saying ? I read it a coupla times.

August 3, 1998

U.S. Fed approves Royal Bank bid for Florida bank

WASHINGTON, Aug 3 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve Board on Monday approved a proposal by Royal Bank of Canada to take over New Security First Network Bank of Miami, Fla.

Royal Bank, based in Montreal, has total assets of about $164 billion. It will acquire New Security First from Security First Technologies Inc. of Atlanta, Ga.

New Security First is a federally chartered savings bank that will offer electronic banking services, primarily over the Internet.

August 3, 1998

Battered Canadian dollar slips to record low

MONTREAL, Aug 3 ( Reuters ) - The battered Canadian dollar slipped to a record low close against the U.S. dollar on Monday, and analysts said they expected the currency to remain under downward pressure throughout the week.

The Canadian dollar closed at C$1.5147 ( US$0.6601 ) , after slipping to C$1.5156 ( US$0.6598 ) in European trading earlier in the day. It had closed on Friday at C$1.5119 ( US$0.6614 ) , capping a week during which it had slipped 100 points.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/CANADA-DOLLAR.html

The Stock Market may find a low Tuesday and begin an a-b-c correction. If it continues to drop hard Tuesday I'm afraid a swift decline will happen. This we be the scenario that I discussed last night. It looks and feels like the 5th wave is completing. This would be Wave 1. Wave 2 will be the a-b-c to .618 x the total point decline.
Usually some sort of news or Assumption, accompanies a terminal or final low ( or high ) that reinforces that there is no way, because its always happens this way. Meaning .....When The Stock Market declines Gold goes down Hard too! Could it be a setup?

...go hibernate! I'm tired of this PM bear.

I posted here some time ago that Buffet may have sold undelivered silver soon after his purchase was announced. ( The silver just wasn't there to be delivered! ) Was this so?

Well, the reported purchase was 129 million ozs, if I remember. What's are Bershire Hathaway's current holdings? According to the story posted here recently re his bond sale, only 111.2 million ozs. That to me looks like 20 million ozs sold, or about half the deferred delivery of 40 million ozs.

Hmmmm...

sam__A.

BUT your sweatheart has just come home! SPOT GOLD UP 60 cents ot $286.30!

Sent to me today by a goldbug...


A farmer was sentenced to jail for robbing a coin shop.

It was the beginning of the planting season and his entire
income depended on getting in his potato crop.

His wife sent a note to him in prison asking: "Do you think
I'm going to dig up the field and plant those potatoes all by myself?"

The prisoner promptly wrote back: "Whatever you do, don't dig
up that field. That's where all the golden eagles are buried."

A week later, the wife responded. "Somebody must be reading
your mail. Some men came by and dug up the field. What do I do now?"

Back came the reply:"Now plant the potatoes!"

are the better ones, and no one responded!

Has anyone done the tour??

Live Long and Propser.

IMHO, the .60 rise in POG is a continuing tease on the part of our yellow haired whore. When the bounce in POG comes to end this bear, it will not need to be announced, it will be dynamite and will be at least double digit increase in daily trading. Personally i would look for at least a l5.00 increase and possibly twice that .

Let the fun begin,,,,,, soon!

Try these on for size: ABX, BMG, CCH, ALTA, GGO, HM, NEM, NGC, PDG, GSR, LIHRY, VENGF, HGMCY, SGOLY, AGOLY to name but a few!

Anyone check out the Kitco Gold Chart recently? I just did and almost had cardiac arrest.

Is the Kitco graph correct ?? It shows spot gold up over $2 an ounce??

but I do think we need to see a turn before the 18th or an acceleration to the downside gains credibility. Whether it's a correction in a downtrend or a new bull market I think we'll be above 300 before the end of September. The Yen and dollar seem to be the triggers. The dollar has a compelling chart obviously in the opposite direction. ( see earlier post )

or you will have a cardiac arrest

She DOES like to tease, doesn't she? Must be why I'm so attracted to her!
Hope you're right about that $15 rise, but right now I'll settle for the 60 cents Bart's screen is showing me!

which ones are the best. Im serious. NEM, ABX, BMG,HL ( I own some of that one ) ,drooy,or what? Opinions!

Just 1 stock out of 12 traded at all today that I hold. The market might as well have been closed.

From 286 to 284. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Isure's post, Monday, 5:45 p.m. ( approx. ) 8/3/98

there is, me-thinks, no difference..
i picked cotton too, though anglo-saxon,
white & wasp,
that i confess myself to be

i picked it
in 1952, and in
( fifty- ) three .

Deep in Alabama,
on a left-over cotton-plantation inherited,
i picked those cotton-balls,
with my spiritual brothers & sisters, all.

Dark as they might have been
i, at least touched, and sensed,
their reality.

Admittedly:
i went home to running water, rushing electric current,
and flushing-toilets,
which they assuredly,
did not.

Yet,
they & I,
were friends;
I even called them/him/my new friend -- .... "Steve" ? !
--- "are you my landlady's nephew?" - ?!

When, later, our land-lady advised me,
( - newly arrived - as we were - from 'the North' ( -Ohio ) ... ) :: )

that: this is/was.... a possibility - not !

So I cannot pretend to know such conditions of poverty as this;
but I will risk an attempt to relate
a common thread:
united
in the shine of a child's eye
and
in the relfection of gold.

If we went to Africa's starving, warring tribes,
& most troubled-nations;
we would find, tragically,
a surplus of children & families,
whose eyes hold no shine, rhythm, reason, or rhyme.

If we went around the corner,
we'd find the self-same vacant stare.

But, as hope springs eternal,
so too, does
truth, compassion, courage, creativity & risk.

For,
if our children's eyes shine
with the glow of nurtured love
and sustenance

it arrives for them,
by our commitment
to life, work, service, and integrity.

And only gold based, gold-convertible money,
will restore to balance, nurture, sustenance,
and just relations & ways,
the market-place, and the society,
and.....
the commerce, enterprises and institutions as well,
where governments
and civilizations
recover our careening earth...

that we find & feed all children everywhere,
with our commitment to their lives.

A just, global-economy,
universally standard-ized,
in shinning gold money & coin,
will allow this
potential
and promise of possibility.

A child with shining eyes,

and a coin with shining miles,

hold a common thread of truth.

Isure's post, Monday, 5:45 p.m. ( approx. ) 8/3/98

there is, me-thinks, no difference..
i picked cotton too, though anglo-saxon,
white & wasp,
that i confess myself to be

i picked it
in 1952, and in
( fifty- ) three .

Deep in Alabama,
on a left-over cotton-plantation inherited,
i picked those cotton-balls,
with my spiritual brothers & sisters, all.

Dark as they might have been
i, at least touched, and sensed,
their reality.

Admittedly:
i went home to running water, rushing electric current,
and flushing-toilets,
which they assuredly,
did not.

Yet,
they & I,
were friends;
I even called them/him/my new friend -- .... "Steve" ? !
--- "are you my landlady's nephew?" - ?!

When, later, our land-lady advised me,
( - newly arrived - as we were - from 'the North' ( -Ohio ) ... ) :: )

that: this is/was.... a possibility - not !

So I cannot pretend to know such conditions of poverty as this;
but I will risk an attempt to relate
a common thread:
united
in the shine of a child's eye
and
in the relfection of gold.

If we went to Africa's starving, warring tribes,
& most troubled-nations;
we would find, tragically,
a surplus of children & families,
whose eyes hold no shine, rhythm, reason, or rhyme.

If we went around the corner,
we'd find the self-same vacant stare.

But, as hope springs eternal,
so too, does
truth, compassion, courage, creativity & risk.

For,
if our children's eyes shine
with the glow of nurtured love
and sustenance

it arrives for them,
by our commitment
to life, work, service, and integrity.

And only gold based, gold-convertible money,
will restore to balance, nurture, sustenance,
and just relations & ways,
the market-place, and the society,
and.....
the commerce, enterprises and institutions as well,
where governments
and civilizations
recover our careening earth...

that we find & feed all children everywhere,
with our commitment to their lives.

A just, global-economy,
universally standard-ized,
in shinning gold money & coin,
will allow this
potential
and promise of possibility.

A child with shining eyes,

and a coin with shining miles,

hold a common thread of truth.