Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:07 - ID#225408)

Please refrain from putting words into my mouth. I do not dislike you. And you do know me, or at least have replied to me at K-1.

And I do not like F*, either.

This is not about love. I am interested in ideas.

Many ideas: Yours/RJ's, F*'s LGB's, ANOTHER's, etc.

Ultimately, I will be asking about motives so prepare yourself by thinking long and hard about them.

This is not, and never will be, personal. It is about ideas.

PS. BTW, I do not dislike the president, either. So that shot went right by me, too.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:08 - ID#252286)

He even defended the short squeeze theory on a couple occasions. As gold fell and fell and fell. It far so far one might say it farfel. Hey...! Thats it.... Now I get the name....! It has all been a ploy. I feel a fool for not having seen it sooner.

I know now that farfel is an ideological gold short who is feeding us misinformation, so that more lambs may be lead to the slaughter of his gold shorts.

It all makes sense now. Nobody could be that clueless, not without trying, they couldn't.

Stop shorting gold farfel!!! Leave us beleaguered goldbugs alone! Haven't you and your international new paradigm cronies done enough damage already? Leave us be, youve done enough harm!

Your false gold talk will not fool us any longer, we are on to your scent.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:08 - ID#43460)
6 pack re Reno #2
I realized after that last post that I should clarify that I don't think she started out that way on purpose, but I do think she's become extremely dangerous as her brain deteriorates shile retains influence. Here is a link supporting my allegations:

BTW, the other Parkinsonian world leader I mentioned was a fellow named Hitler. And both his Stalingrad offensive and his 'final solution' occurred simultaneously with predictable worsenings of his disease.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:12 - ID#252127)

These markets have no logic. Why do CB's lend their one vehicle that carries no debt only to see it deminish in value and then feel good about about their coup against stability.

Is there some other reason as to why this is a fact?

Perhaps some people feel royalty is in their blood and the hell with the poor slobs that make the system turn, let the us all toil and to whose benefit.

Farfel is pissed; to be sure I don't agree with everything farfel says, but we all have our own way of expressing the situation. Whats worst, being nasty with words or destroying a productive society?

Sure some of the attacks were unwarranted, but is the decay of America warranted, is the paper debt IOU fiat system warrented? And for who? You, me, farfel? Cheers.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:13 - ID#342376)
Golden Eagle International, MINE
The following article was in yesterday's Wall Street Journal.

Bolivian Gold Find Sparks
Debate, Comparisons to Bre-X

Once, investing in another Bre-X Minerals Ltd. was Harold Freiermuth's dream. Now, the idea he may have done just that haunts his sleep.

Early last year, the Youngstown, N.Y., auto mechanic and amateur investor watched as the stock of Bre-X skyrocketed from pennies a share to $20.75 after the tiny Canadian mining outfit claimed a massive gold find in Indonesia.

Before the Bre-X claims imploded into what may be the biggest gold fraud of the century, Mr. Freiermuth and a group of buddies set their sights on Golden Eagle International Inc. of Denver, which claimed a promising prospect in Cangalli, a wild part of Bolivia where Incas had mined gold more than 1,000 years ago. They bought $200,000 in stock.

Now, Mr. Freiermuth and many other investors see worrisome parallels. Like Bre-X, Golden Eagle says it has found a discovery with fantastic reserves and says it has an independent mining engineer's report to back it. And like Bre-X, Golden Eagle is long on enthusiasm and short on capital.

But it also has a credible supporter, consultant Donald M. Hausen, a 26-year industry veteran, advising editor of the Journal of Mineralogy, and former chief of exploration for mining giant Newmont Mining Corp. Dr. Hausen, who helped develop the enormous Carlin Trend in Nevada three decades ago, has visited Cangalli and says he is convinced that there is a huge gold deposit. "I've never seen or heard of anything like it," he says. "It's a new type of deposit, and that's what's stumping mining companies."

How big a deposit isn't clear. On May 22, Golden Eagle said that, according to the independent mining engineer's report, the Cangalli site held proven reserves of 6.4 million ounces of gold, and "inferred resources" of a stunning 157.4 million ounces of gold. That larger number would amount to more than $46 billion in gold at today's prices.

Dr. Hausen isn't so sure about that. "The numbers on this deposit seem unusually high," he says. But, he adds, "it is a very, very large deposit."

In the days following Golden Eagle's announcement, the company's shares quadrupled in price to 58 cents a share in over-the-counter trading on daily volume of as much as 8.9 million shares. Still, Terry Turner, Golden Eagle's president and chief executive, says, "we thought it would run farther and harder."

Two weeks earlier, though, the Securities and Exchange Commission had filed suit in federal court in Denver accusing the company and its founders of defrauding investors by making bogus claims about gold properties in California, among other charges. Golden Eagle and its husband-and-wife founders -- Ron Knittle, the company's former chairman, president and chief executive, and Mary Erickson, treasurer, and the company's majority shareholder -- deny the charges.

On June 24, after questioning Mr. Turner and the mining engineer, Guido Paravicini, for three days, the SEC halted trading in Golden Eagle shares for two weeks. Robert Fusfeld, an SEC attorney, warned of serious concerns about the reliability of the report. The company also hasn't yet filed its 1997 10-K annual report, or its first-quarter results.

Mining industry observers are disbelieving about the Bolivia find. "It's rubbish," snaps Doug Leishman, an analyst with Yorktown Securities.

But when Golden Eagle resumed trading on July 7, speculators drove the price from 32 cents a share when trading halted June 19 to as high as $1.75 a share. The stock was quoted Friday at 35 cents a share in the National Quotation Bureau's over-the-counter pink sheets.

Dr. Hausen calls the site an extremely unusual placer deposit. Typically a placer deposit is a thin layer of gold-bearing gravel washed down from a mountain source and laid along a stream. Because such deposits tend to be thin and erratic, most large mining companies won't bother with them. But in this case, says Dr. Hausen, a long-ago cataclysmic event dammed a river and filled a valley with a placer deposit several thousand feet deep, 15 miles long, and over a mile wide.

A stream slices through the deposit. So instead of drilling for samples, Mr. Paravicini, longtime chief exploration geologist for National Bolivian Mining Corp., dug pits and trenches along the steep sides of the valley. The day trading resumed, Golden Eagle said in an SEC filing that Mr. Paravicini had made at least one calculation error, reducing estimated reserves by 29,254 ounces, and warned that the report's findings "are subject to substantial and material changes, including reduction or elimination of [reserves.]"

Last month, Golden Eagle hired the mining-consulting firm of Behre Dolbear & Co. to audit Mr. Paravicini's report.

Meanwhile, Mr. Turner admits that Golden Eagle, to date largely financed by Ms. Erickson's family trust, lacks the capital to develop whatever gold there is. "We know we'll need a joint-venture partner," he says.

No major mining company, though, has admitted interest, though Newmont Mining geologists have been in touch with Dr. Hausen. "Post Bre-X, the large companies are skittish," says Newmont spokesman Doug Hock.

Meanwhile, Mr. Freiermuth recently called Golden Eagle's part-time investor-relations director, Sabrina Martinez, at her art shop in a Denver suburb. He complained he isn't sleeping well from worry.

"She told me she sleeps well and I should, because everything is going to work out," he says. "I just hope that's true.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:20 - ID#335190)
gagnrad @ 23:38
Would/could that be the Boston Tea Party. ( 1773 ) And the silversmith Paul Revere, disguised as Mohawks, And the East India Company ship. George Washington being a man of "sense and property" deplores the Boston Tea Party. And John Hancock, being a smuggler of contraband tea, the Tea Act makes his operation unprofitable.

Law and Order eh! Guns, and government agents,and Waco, Montana Freemen, war on drugs. And 1.2 million USofA citizen's in jail, excluding local jails.

Thanks Take Care.

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:29 - ID#225408)
Did someone say R. Dornbusch??

Could you supply a URL? Or at least some details?

Has he been paid off?

Is HE really back from vacation?

Please speak.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:31 - ID#187109)

Date: Tue Aug 04 1998 00:25
EB ( I haven't commented on gold in a LOOOOONG time..... ) :
not that anyone gives a sheiss....or is it shiess?? who cares... looks screwed. And now I will give comment on gold plowing through 280 and into the dirt from which it
came. D.A.?? you want some? I am back in the camp of Glenn and APH and Aurators' EW amigo and a WHOLE
LOTTA other people around the globe. It has NOT washed it's hands of the last and final go around.....this is not to say
that it will not hit HEP's 325 on 11/11 ( that reminds me of an old vaudeville joke ) this one one one this is eleven eleven.....are you sure this isn't one one one one......yes I am sure...this io eleven

back to gold...yes gold will break its lows and why not soon. It is reaching oversold indicators but it ain't there yet.
I'm hooked on a feeling........... ( David Cassidy? or Cat Stevens?? ) .......I'm high on believing that.....blah blah blah blah
blah blah!!!

I am counting on JD's LAW #1 to pull through for me here as well.......with a little help from his gentetic
one...............and the handfull of chicken bones I just chucked on the top of the trash can lid...........there IS a bad moon
a risin' ( CCR ) ..........and it ain't the S&P.........uh's da gold in dem der 'ills.......................uh huh.

There ya have it......the best contrarian indicator around........and don't ask for reasons cause that road has already been
paved......ya just haven't gone down it yet on yer bicycle..................

OLD GOLD's been talkin of a mighty wash out...................well lash yersalf to the nearest
come da flood.

And silver will suck eggs too.................count on it. But I'll be buyin it lower.....................................ohmy!

bloopooped - do ya like apples??????? do ya like...............................

I can see clearly now the rain is gone
I can see ALL obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind....
It's gonna be a bright, bright, sunshiny day

away..............from this to go 'absorb' 'BE' ( EB ) the charts and throw more bones ( chicken or steak? ) ..............I
gotta dart board too................WATCH OUT!

( this may have turned out a little jumbled........It got lost in cyber space for a while............I think part of me is still there coulda been the bitters )

hemp bc__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:32 - ID#347184)
In Space
Nobody can hear you scream

( LGB )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:33 - ID#252286)
All the News B4 farfel knew it

Farfel posted this:

Date: Mon Aug 03 1998 16:55
farfel ( @ALL..just learned COMEX SILVER stocks increased... ) ID#341227: over 79 million ounces today

And Jujube says this:

Like the Wall Street Journal, you are once again way behind the curve. Last weeks withdrawals from Wilmington were detailed by RJ LAST WEEK. He even predicted the metal would show up Monday or Tuesday. I think he said that last Wednesday..... That's last week. Thanks for the nostalgia though. Try to get something a little fresher than everybody can read for themselves by just going to Barts news page.

For those that dont know where this is, go to:

Look at the tree CNN Bridge News reports and the Reuters list. Almost everything farfel ever said was said there first or by someone else on K1 who actually knew what they were talking about.

Lawyers call that plagiarism, but those are lawyers. Some have said he changes things around enough to avoid any hint of that ugly word, but I surely dont believe he would ever sink that low. I believe he believe what he says. That is what is so scary.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:36 - ID#341227)
@PH in LA....thanks for the kind words... remain one of my favorite reads.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:38 - ID#252286)
Is this Possible?

Date: Tue Aug 04 1998 00:32
hemp bc__A ( In Space ) ID#347184:
Nobody can hear you scream

( LGB )

The Kitchen just got hotter. Gonna have to lay off that Jenny Jones watching farfelonious, you've got homework to do. Maybe I should take a break, and leave it to a master. One should always have the Liberty to speak his mind.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:38 - ID#263379)
Ha ha very funny Bart!!!
Hemp bc??? HEMP BC???? You smear the good name of LGB by sticking me with a handle that invokes thoughts of our our draft dodging, dope smoking, didn't inhale, fornicating, adultering, FBI file abusing, Real estate S & L rip off, Associate murdering, Travel office firing, Monica dress spraying, so called Commander in Chief???

Is THIS yer idea of a joke Bart??? !!!


Come on folks on K1, look, even you LGB haters of yore, I apologize for any untoward behaviour, even the most adversarial of you surely wouldn't wish THIS handle on me!

Hemp bc is not my name

( LGB )

P.S. Go SILVER!! ( ok, and Gold too )

P.S.S. I KNEW you wouldn't be able to resist talking stock market crash once I was gone Puetz! ( hehehehe ) , the only thing is, I'm almost ready to agree with you now....fundamentals look illish

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:38 - ID#401460)
Bart, When did Gold drop?
@ Midnight exactly?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:39 - ID#341227)
@RJ...thanks for keeping everybody apprised of my past posts....
...I have made previous errors in analysis and unduly upset various people on K-1.

That's why I make no further price calls.

I leave that to the experts like yourself.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:40 - ID#263379)
Hemp BC is gone and now I'm "Liberty" again? Well then, re last post...

( Phew, that was a close one! )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:41 - ID#341227)
@LIBERTY...apologies to you, sir...
...for my June 29 posts.

I look forward to reading you in the future.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:41 - ID#187109)
where is LGB anyway?????
if ever we needed that dude right now........

did I just say that???

uh huh. read the Princeton page.............plug in..................and where is our old HongKong connection as well?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:42 - ID#207145)
How is your Disney stock that you bought at the top of the market? I suggest that you excuse yourself from market prognostication. I suggest that you become a weatherman.Or a trash man.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:42 - ID#401460)
Shanghai Composite ^SSEC

Hong Kong
Hang Seng ^HSI 12:30AM

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:43 - ID#252286)
farfel loves PH in LA too

Farfel from 6/29/98

farfel ( @PH**KHEAD IN LA... ) ID#340302:

You were never a fan of FARFEL? Who cares? Who really cares what drivel you post on this

forum? Who cares who you like?

Go back and worship your David Carradine impressionist, ANOTHER. That's more your speed.

You can find him on USAGOLD raking in the bucks courtesy of ass-for-brains sheep like yourself.



John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:44 - ID#24135)
Ezra was great .. try Li Po
for Bully Beef
Ezra Pound was not English .. He was born in Idaho.
He loved Italy .. and called himself a "jeffersonian
republican". He hated Roosevelt and the new deal and
communism and socialism and finally capitalism.
Went for Mussolini's facism as the least of various
evils ( in his eyes ) .. He would have done ok on Kitco.
In my opinion .. greatest thing he did was translation
of Li Po poetry ..
I think they both liked gold.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:47 - ID#24135)
You got a mean streak ..

" I suggest that you become a weatherman.
Or a trash man."

Really .. try a little ... tenderness..

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:48 - ID#207145)
Some people are suited. EB does have his strong points.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:48 - ID#373284)
EB, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff back at ya...I see you are stirring up the
markets eh...personally...i'm thinking gold and silver will surprise all, but I am not a trader...I purchase physical and hold and purchase mining shares I have studied and if they lose share value I keep buying on the way day until satisfied and wait for the rise...

Ya win some, ya lose some and in between... I drink heavily so it does not really matter in the long long as all the bills are paid and the physical treasure chest is never dipped into...aye...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:49 - ID#252286)
Wrong again he changes the subject

Farfel, can you explain why you were so surprised about silver today when RJ told us all about that last week? Aren't you paying attention to the markets? If so, how did you miss this crucial piece of advance insight? If you are not, why do you shoot your mouth off so much?. Curious to know, my dear friend.


Oh, and Thank


Thank You



John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:49 - ID#24135)
The day you need LGB..
EB ..
is the day you should hang it up..

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:51 - ID#252286)
Sorry Liberty?

Are you going to make me go back to get the vile slander you slung at Liberty too? You are making yourself a liar with each passing day.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:51 - ID#250121)
---Burt--Elliot---Peutz---Old Gold---THE GREAT SPIKE DOWN.......ooooohhhhhhh.....

Oh Yar, the last great Spike Down, Yowser. I still await that stiletto. The knife in the back, ouch.... Trouble is, Burt saw it on the EW charts, but can't say when of it. That's why I lost my wager to Auric. I am still sure we gonna bounce lower. You were the only one who noted Peutz's passing hereabouts, just hours after I posted about the cluster of eclipses we're gonna be about in the next few weeks:
Date: Sat Aug 01 1998 20:34 aurator ( the lunatics are on the grass )
Two Partial eclipses of the Moon ( times are GMT )
Aug 8 at 02:25 and
Sep 6 at 11.10
and one annular eclipse of the sun
Aug 22 at 02;06

I am glad he came back. As auric has noted, Mr Peutz is a man who keeps his word. We need men like that. It is no sin to be wrong.

Didja get my email about Teddo?

Old Gold
Would you please refresh my memory on the 3 pillars of the bull market? TIA

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:54 - ID#341227)
@RJ (aka JUJUBE)...

No need to discuss these matters further with you, RJ.

You're always right. You're infallible.

You are the ultimate arbiter of the PM markets.

You are the "new sheriff in town" ( as you put it ) on K-1.

We all bow down to your higher insights.

But with your permission, sir, will you please allow me to continue posting my sundry, less enlightened thoughts on K-2?



(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:54 - ID#263379)
@ Jujube
I shan't be baited, even during my unfortunate banishment to the nether regions of Kitco. Carry on Jujube,

( The one and only LibertyA / LGB )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:57 - ID#219363)
Could someone in the know post a short layman's explaination of what the relationship is between a put, a call, a futures contract, and the strike value - just a little bit of text to help me understand them intuitively.

Thanks in advance.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:59 - ID#335190)
German people also died in Nazis camps @ Will the truth ever be known?
August 3, 1998

All-night vigil for Gypsy victims of the Nazis

BUDAPEST ( AP ) -- With music, prayer and a solemn reading of names, about 300 people marked the anniversary Monday of the night the Nazis sent thousands of Gypsies to their deaths in the gas chambers of Auschwitz.

Between 200,000 and 500,000 died, although the exact number is uncertain. Of the 23,000 Gypsies taken to the Auschwitz-Birkenau camp, only 2,000 survived, said Franciszek Piper of the Auschwitz State Museum.

Speakers said that although the world is aware of the massacre by the Nazis of six million Jews, many people don't know about the slaughter of Poles, Soviet prisoners of war, political opponents and homosexuals and Gypsies.

They are nomadic people with a distinct language and ancient folklore and are found mostly in Spain, Hungary and the Balkans.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 00:59 - ID#207145)
John Disney
That was the Big O, Otis Redding, yes. Studio says so anyway. EB keeps mentioning me in his posts. I must have made an impression. I can be friendly or otherwise. Rather be friendly.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:00 - ID#252286)
To bring newcomers up to date:

farfel went berserk and completely lost his wig on June 29. He wrote all that has appeared here, and much, much, more. I going to let him lick the shoes of those he claims to have offended on that day only. I will then prove his harassment was an ongoing process that insulted everybody for months.

He is a liar. His words prove it.

He now looks for places to place his lonely proboscis.

A sociopath does not realize what he has done is wrong.

Tim McViegh
Ted Kazinski
Marion Barry
Marv Albert
O.J. Simpson
D. Cohen
Richard Nixon
Bill Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Ted Bundy
Charles Manson

It is only a matter of degree

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:00 - ID#388209)
The Mask of ZEROS
Warren Buffet's Co announced today that they have dumped their Billions in stripped zero cupons, the super interest rate sensitive ones, but is still ostensibly carrying all his silver. When last I checked the Traders' Commercial commtiments were at a multi-year high short position. IMHIPO, Something big is going down on the Long Bond !
Ole !



(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:02 - ID#207145)
Think the dollar might be gettin long in the tooth?

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:03 - ID#24135)
Religious Reflections
for salty
Glad to hear no sin to be wrong ..
That means I only lose money ..
maybe not go to hell too ??

To any Homestake fans ..
Your stock fascinates .. They lose
money .. they go up ...
If you buy Homestake do you go
to heaven ??

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:07 - ID#24135)
I remember him ..
Bloops ..
He made elevators .. right ??

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:08 - ID#341227)
@RJ (aka JUJUBE)...again, sir...
...may I have permission to post on this forum, please?

I recognize that my thoughts are less elevated than yours...and I am a fallible person...and I have offended some decent and sweet people on this forum.

However, I do apologize to those so offended and once again, I request your permission to post some jokes, some economic analyses, some poems, some non-professional PM analyses, IMHO responses to questions, etc., etc.

As per your request, I will avoid making PM price calls, sir.

So, once again, do I have your permission RJ?



(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:09 - ID#263379)
Latest market calls
Since it's been quite awhile, latest portfolio adjustments are;

* Liquidated my Space Systems Loral stock at 29, ( Chinagate and all, plus a market poised for some falling )

* Added some Platinum Eagles to the portfolio at $372.00, just a few. ( RJ, EB and I are countin on you man! )

* Added some bags of silver coin to portfolio, last week, when spot was approx. $ 5.65 ( Oops, well, I still side against Marty A. Merril Lynch shill )

* Tomorrow, I shall purchase some SSC, averaging in on a dollar cost basis, for the next few months, till we see that $2.00 to $3.00 we shall surely see within 18 months!

Still contemplating some leveraged instruments, happily having saved EB's excellent advice columns re same.

I've added no Gold, and won't do so until something drastic changes in the fundamentals of the world economy, ( or socio political situation ) .

Excuse me, why is the Russkie market up 26% ?


Kitco, I always loved thee, with love comes passion, with passion comes quarrel, with quarrel comes reconciliation. However, I'll make no hollow promises to blanderize my speech. Humor, satire, color, advocacy, stridently adversarial deabte....these are all well accepted conventions of true communication. For me, anything short of this, rates a major yawn.


Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:09 - ID#430221)
Hey, John Disney-don't pick
on HM holders. Check out DROOY first. Straight down. I bought
more today but that is it ! I'm done with all my purchases. I thought
it would hold like HM but it couldn't even stay above a measly $2.

SO I had to buy more. I hope it does as well as HM which I don't own.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:10 - ID#250121)
More than you ever wanted to know about stuff.....
Greed, ENVY, lust, fornication, television.....

enjoy.... ( ( ennivrez-vous sans Cesse ) )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:10 - ID#373284)
Envy, Namaste' I think this is exactly what you are looking for...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:14 - ID#219363)
@aurator, tolerant1
Thanks a bunch guys! *smile*

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:15 - ID#263379)
@ Farfel
Apology accepted and tendered in return. Only one note of caution, Jujube is not RJ. The REAL RJ would never had flung such a cheap shot at me a few posts ago. He and I patched our differences, many moons ago. However, I suspect Jujube is indeed a poster we know well from K1.

Sleep calls, good night Moon, goodnight Cow jumping over the Moon, goodnight stars, goodnight air, goodnight Noises everywhere.

Final paragraph plagarized from the text of "Goodnight Moon", a literary work that you other parents of small children will recognize if you read to them frequently )


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:15 - ID#43349)
Mr. Buffet and company certainly aren't expecting rates to go down in the near future, now are they?

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:17 - ID#430221)
Here is something I remember
reading by Jim Rogers: Bottoms often come in 2 forms. They
happen fast so you don't get a chance to get in at the price you want;
or they wear you out until you get bored silly and go somewhere else.

I guess the gold bottom is the second one. How long will it take????

August will tell. This gold bear is wearing me out!!!

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:18 - ID#252286)
Farfel wants RJ to hear him

I like RJ too but, in case you are having trouble with your glasses, I am Jujube ( Like the candy ) mmmmmmmmmmmmm goood. Farfel wants to be heard, but he still justifies his attack on the entire Kitco world as an "impression of RJ going berserk". RJ left Kitco because of farfel. Advertisers will not advertise with Bart because of farfel. Farfel is costing Bart money. I wonder how much he is worth? The counting started yesterday.

He lies, and there is no mercy for those who lie. None. Pandering to the crowd will beget proof that he are pandering. His dozen or so daily mistakes will be pointed out. All who have read his words in the past know how truly vapid his market knowledge is, yet here he is, spouting like a broken fire hydrant. I'm just trying to give the new guys a running start on the type of fellow he is. This is a public service. You would want to know if a child molester moved next door to you, wouldnt you? Same thing here. I am not suggesting he has that particular proclivity, but a better informed nation is a stronger nation, or so I am told.

All said in short, I can promise him.

It just wont be any fun at all.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:19 - ID#187109)
I knew youse guys were out there.........

bloopooped - I have said it before......wait until Dec....and then wait until July 99....until makes no difference what you say regarding the matter.....I gave you a chance to put up your two grand............all you cansay is may win but you may lose out too...........such is life. .....bought at market top?? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ( idunno ) .......well, you're the do I know? told me so......

JD - I don't know what came over me......things have been good here.......I am a glutton sometimes........I'm goin to 'ell in a basket.........regardless of makin or losin......

Aurator - yes I did. I will be calling him.....thanks. And of that spike............indeedy. But it may jump tomorrow........because people are takin US$ profits tonight ( and tomorrow ) bloop so sagaciously commented. He is good people.........he told me so.

Tol#1 - keep is a good thing......i think. AGULP&P! the boobtube

has anyone heard of Pennaco Energy Inc. ? i got this letter the other day........why do they send me this stuff?.........hmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:20 - ID#207145)
John Disney
They are one and the same. His elevator went to heaven. Stairway to heaven for Otis elevator Redding. Gold doesn't mean much in heaven, by the way. The analogy I believe is that the streets are paved with it. That tells you about the evaluations up there.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:21 - ID#430221)
Buffett selling Zeros
very, very, very, interesting. And He told us what he did too.
Isn't that nice of him? I wonder why he did that? ANYONE?

Just policy?

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:21 - ID#250121)
Ticket to ride........
Everyone want to buy HM as a ticket to the rapture? Hmm, like von Finke? Homestake and CDE are the only green showing in an OTHER wise scarlet day...makes ya wonder. Is that a high HM vol?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:22 - ID#341227)
RJ (aka JUJUBE)...I know JUJUBE is RJ and RJ is JUJUBE.... admitted so previously. Your syntax and grammar are identical.

Now, I must know, do I have your permission to post on K-2, sir?




(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:23 - ID#207145)
You arent a bad guy. I really should have left out the trash bit. That was too nasty, and you did not deserve it.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:24 - ID#341227)
@BART...Bart, if RJ (aka JUJUBE) does not allow me to post on K-2..
...then I must disappear.

I need his blessing or else he will never leave me in peace.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:24 - ID#373284)
I have created a Mumm is buying manual type-writers and supplies
pens, pencils, erasers, staples, etc. God only knows what is going to show up from all the non-electric catalogs...and of course cases of smokes and coffee and a ton of powdered milk...and her Y2K war chest grows daily...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:27 - ID#207145)
Your September scenario? Explain it if you will. Also the rechallange of the top has already occurred. Could it be we are looking at September instead?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:28 - ID#263379)
@ GoGold / HepCat, Puetz
Kitco 1 is almost what it once was in it's glory dayz now that you two are back!

We even have JD makin the usual cowardly snipes at me when I'm not there to respond.. ( which is why I am forced to agree with your premises of a few days ago on this subject Hep you know what I'm speaking of ) ....why it IS the same Kitco it once was!

Guess I'll have to git me a new handle, a new disposition, a new outlook, a new portfolio, and start postin again over there.

Welcome back guy's, now..... where's Poorboys, Sheller, Realistic, Oldman, Karlito, and so many other Kitco greats of yore? Just a little bit o' nostalgia, you know, after such a lengthy silencing and all.

LGB ( up too late )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:30 - ID#252286)

RJ left Kitco. Said he would be embarrassed to have his words on the same page as farfel. I believe him. You may have misread the Sorry Liberty post. This was directed at farfel. It is a question as to whether I should dig up the horrible insults he made to you and repost them beside his brown nosed pandering. This was no insult to you in the least, but rather in support of you.

Pardon me when I become indignant when this gerbil starts his whimpering. We have all seen it before. I feel not a twitch sorry for him. He had many opportunities to get along and he blew them all. He had apologies offered and responded with insults. He will do this again. Like the lady who picked up the snake to help him and who was then bitten. Well you know the rest.

Bart, you knew he was a F* snake when you picked him up.

Anyway, please do not feel insulted and I am very glad to see your return. I understand your reluctance in making the kitchen hotter for the worm, but Im doing ok by myself.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:30 - ID#207145)
Does anyone believe the US will Devalue
To save Japan. It is critical.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:31 - ID#373284)
Namaste' to all and morning, afternoon or night to ya...
all that whining wore me out today...and remember...if you can't afford to lose it...DON'T invest will live longer and happier...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:32 - ID#43349)
I see gold down through mid September. Dow down through December ( maybe a Christmas rally? ) . No particular BIG CRASH day, just a lot of big down days.

This can all change in a flash if Mr Buffet and the bond shorts have something up their sleeve.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:32 - ID#286253)
@ RJ re your last market letter -- Cost of production paid in local currency?

With regard to your contention that non-US producers are selling forward; to quote: "Cost of production is paid in local currency, so many producers are rushing to lock in higher prices while their currencies remain weak", this is not entirely true. Cost of production is _partially_ paid in local currency. Much is not, however. Powder, equipment, bits, etc., are all often priced in $US. To take an example, it is estimated that SA producers benefit ( in terms of local currency ) "50 cents" for every "dollar" gained in the FX markets. It's something, but it's not everything.

As for non-US producers selling forward to capture FX gains, I heard some SA mining exec say somewhere that "he doesn't want rand, he wants $US." As well, did you note that Kinross recently covered its hedges?

It's not as black and white as you suggest.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:33 - ID#207145)
Manufafacturing to be STRONG
In the 1st quarter. Buffet could read the tea leaves. Accounts deficit? or Japan revival?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:35 - ID#286224)
@PH in LA
All I heard was a short bit on the radio ( while driving ) .

I heard he had come out as beliveing the boom can keep on going up to 15 more years - a new paradigm ( the paradigm word is mine, but basically that is the most accurate representation of what I heard as I can manage ) You going to do a news search? Let me know..

( )

PS Doesn't sound like ANOTHER does it?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:37 - ID#263379)
@ Jujube (I got it)
You're right, I misread and misunderstood your other post, my apologies. It's been awhile since I've had a chance to dialogue on my native tongue so I'm kinda slow!

As to any disputes twixt you and Farfel, I'll opt out of involvement, in my quest to "just all get along" ( but my strongly stated advocacy of certain points of view, will hopefully still be stated with boldness, humor, and good cheer! )


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:38 - ID#252286)


This is exactly as you started, as you prosecuted, as you escalated, and as you deserve.

Bart wont get rid of you it until it costs him money. If you continue here it will cost him money. I would much rather see you leave voluntarily though. Brings a sense of closure, and of no small satisfaction.

So for the sake of all, disappear.

We will be sure build a shrine in your honor and gather each year to feast your Martyrdom

And get the name right, its


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:38 - ID#207145)
I think the crash might occur in September. The large blue chips must correct. "If the generals can't lead, and the soldiers don't follow". It should be swift. It can be orderly. Then stocks will rally until late January. It is a dead cat rally that wont last. From February on the decline will be orderly into 2000.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:39 - ID#341227)
Last time...RJ (aka JUJUBE)....
Will you please allow me to post on K-2, sir?

I recognize that you are the official Sheriff on K-1 and now you are policing K-2. I further recognize that it is virtually impossible to post unassailed either there or here without your express permission.

If you do not grant me permission, sir, then I am gone.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:40 - ID#207145)
Manufacturing will be strong in 4th quarter.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:40 - ID#43349)
Warren's fort is finding good companies to invest in. His venture into silver and zero coupon bonds was prompted from not being able to find many remaining good values in the equities market after the big bubble run up.

He felt silver was a good buy and hold based on fundamentals. The bonds were sort of a speculative flyer. He never felt comfortable with them.

Now with the markets coming down ( including silver, please note ) , he feels he has a better place to put the money......

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:41 - ID#430221)
US devaluation
Paper currencies don't devalue. They just change relationships.

The relationship will change to help the US. Why is Japan in trouble?
Their export business is going better than ours. But if the Yen
gets any cheaper their banks get in more trouble than they are, so
the Yen will go up. Probably later in the year. But maybe August
holds a change along with gold. I don't know. Rubin says he won't
call me when it is time.

The US can only devalue against gold because we are the reserve

Maybe Clinton and Greenspan and Rubin like the strong dollar.
They are not saying. All is murkey at bottoms.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:43 - ID#286224)
Change your name - pick another character for the time -

keep writing

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:45 - ID#43349)
Now THAT, is entirely possible. Although I look at each new -100 day as another in a long series of mini-crashes which altogether add up to the grand crash I don't think we are going to have, there is some possibility.

If instead of going down four or five hundred points a week for the next five months ( what does that add up to? ) , the market could attempt to rally or hold even. If it does, it will have a bigger down ( a crash ) than normal as it resumes the down trend.

October is too long to wait. If there WILL be one ( which I doubt ) , it will come earlier.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:45 - ID#153111)
Options Envy
For Envy's education on Options: Puts and Calls are called options, options are just want they say they are: you have the option to do this or that but what ever you do it is your option. Each option has two players 1 ) the writer 2 ) the buyer. The writer will sell an option either a "Put" ( an option to sell ) or a "Call" ( an option to buy ) 100 shares of stock, a futures contract, or a basket of stocks called an index ) .

I will discus a Call Option. Lets say you have several hundred shares of Microsoft that you bought some years back, you made a killing BUT you have reasons to think that it will go down in price. You could sell some of those shares and get some capital gains, however then you have to pay some of those nasty capitol gain taxes we investors so hate, and besides you think in the long run the trend is still going up what to do? Answer: Sell a "Call Option"! The option market will allow you to sell an option to sell a standard call option ( 100 shares ) of MSFT to a call buyer. The option is only for a certain amount of time say one month to several years in the future, and exercisable at a certain price ( the strike price ) . The strike price is any price you want usually at a higher price than to days price but not necessarily so. During that time you lose control of the 100 shares of MSFT but you get a nice premium check for your loss of control. You think MSFT is going down in price, the buyer thinks it is going up. If you are right the shares of Microsoft will go down and after the call option expires you get control of your shares back, along with the check for selling the option on your shares. This is called hedging. If you are wrong you will have to sell your shares at the strike price to the buyer where he can now turn around and sell them at the higher current market price for a nice profit.

A Put option is a mirror image of a call. Where the seller thinks a stock is going up he will sell a "put", the buyer of a put thinks the price is going down. The buyer in that case, if he is right, can sell the shares at the strike price instead of the lower market price. He can do so because the seller of the "Put Option" in effect guarantees the selling of those shares at the strike price no matter how far a market goes down. A market crash is the ultimate nightmare to a seller of a Put Option, it would destroy many people who sold Puts with strikes prices at 100 and the market goes down to say 40 as they have to make up the difference. Ouch!

A note on options: with a call a buyer is guaranteed to be able to buy the shares at the strike price but it only makes sense to do so if the shares prices are higher than the strike price. Why buy at a strike price of 100 if you can call your broker and get the same stock for 80? The same is true for Puts. Options are only "exercised" if the Put or Call is "in the money" meaning it makes economic sense to exercise it. The majority of options expire worthless, like the net worth of most people who play the options market. Believe me I can tell you tails of woe on how you can lose money with options. So why do people do it? Because if you buy a "way out of the money option" you get control of thousands of dollars of stocks for pennies; if your right you can make 100 to 1 or even better, but only if your right. You have better odds in Vegas if you an option buyer, the sellers don't have the chance to make a killing but they are the ones who make all of the money in this market. Note: NEVER SELL A PUT!!! NEVER!!!!!!!!!! Your risk is unlimited for all practical purposes if the worst happens.

If you decide to do so, buy a book on the subject and play the game with paper before you use real money.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:46 - ID#263379)
@ Allen, JTF, Spud, Sharefin, et al...... Y2K
I remain a skeptic of the Y2K apocolypse, but still wanted to relate a small anecdote from the world of satellite technology. Our "best and brightest" of program manager personnel, have been assigned to a special task force, to implement full Y2K compliance. We're getting e mails, and newsletters on teh subject, and even have a very complete internal company website devoted to the subject.

I'll keep ya posted. We're taking it serious here at the highest management level.

( Go Goldst.... uh I mean Globalstar! )


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:47 - ID#219363)
Just slipped about 50 more points in a few minutes.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:48 - ID#250121)
How to attract crients========

ANOTHER one of my crients asked me today if my software is Y2K complinat. Apparently he had been asked same by his insurance broker. Don't people read crient newspapers? I had answered that back in April. Anyway, I asked him what difference did it make to his insurers? I mean, they wouldn't indemnify him in any event. ....Then I got nasty....I said that I hoped he was asking Power NZ, TelecomNZ, Water Care Services, the banks, and Marsden Point Oil Refinery the same question. Cos if you've got no power, no phones, no water, no money and no gas, the question of whether your software being Y2K compliant is rather academic. Then I got *real* nasty, and suggested he ask his insurance company whether its systems and systematic suppliers are Y2K compliant, and whether it could guarantee its solvency in Y2K.

What a way to treat a crient. Crusty, that's what you gotta do to get crients......

BTW as it was designed on the Mac it is Y2K compliant, we have a problem with the year 2084, but expect to have something figured out by then......

lerv your handle. Your post from personal experience is what makes kitco the special place it is.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:48 - ID#207145)
Gold, Oil are good bets after the crash/correction
Under valued stocks will be hot, as they are safer. Oil's fundamentals will be good, as oil could go to 20.00 a barrel. Gold is so cheap. Europe is another good bet. September or October hold the key. Starrs report due this fall. Big Report. What has he got?. I won't invest until late October. If then.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:49 - ID#286224)
Anybody care to make an index PUT rec ommendation for an options novice that smell a bear
maybe far out - june next year or later.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:50 - ID#43349)
For manufavturing to be strong ine the 4th Qtr, or even the 1st Qtr of '99 would require asian demand to recover much sooner than I believe is possible.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:52 - ID#207145)
10--4 Gollum
If we only knew, we could get really fat. I believe there will be an opportunity. One would have to be lightening fast, or lucky. But people still want to believe. We know better.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:53 - ID#250121)
Sorry I've not replied afore now. I think it is a golden idea to add ANOTHER book to the Auracious Award and to pass both books on to the next winner. Yes. Hmmm a growing library of win...each winner gains the library and loses ANOTHER book when it is passed to the nest winner...Jorge Louis Borges would be proud of your refinement to the award. Somewhere between his short stories: the Infinite ( ? ) Library and the Babylon Lottery.

All change places when the music stops.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:54 - ID#219363)
Thanks so much for taking the time to write that out - that cleared it all up for me. Again, appreciate that.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:55 - ID#43349)
Good night.
I notice that overnight PM's are starting to pick up a bit as the yen strenghtens durinf the asian business day, but i'm too tired to watch it.

You guys get everything all pumped up for me tonight so I can wake up to lots of good surprises. Maybe give Mr Rubin a call and let him know the BOJ is trying to convince everybody they just misunderstood. What better way than another little intervention thingie?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:56 - ID#341227)
@BART and ALL...RJ (aka JUJUBE) has spoken....
...and denied me any right to post on this forum.

So, I will depart immediately.

To all GOLD and SILVER longs:

I wish you all the best in your PM investments. I feel there is a shiny, bright rainbow forming on the horizon. God smiles on the faithful and true. The rainbow draws nearer.

Although I have never physically met any of you, you are undeniably some of the strongest men ( women ) I have encountered in my life. You have been through literal hell these past two years...yet you are all still standing...and laughing. Your life in Hell has invested you with many qualities of compassion for the pain and suffering of your fellow man. I like to believe that the compassionate rise to higher levels in our Universe, ultimately displacing the cruel, powerful oppressors out there.

Believe in yourselves. Never lose that belief. It is the key to your inevitable success.

Once again, apologies to those offended by June 29th.

Bless you all and of course, Thanks.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:56 - ID#207145)
4th, the other ( 1st ) was a typo. Stockpiles of goods are low. Inventories. The GM strike is over. I think it's in the cards 4th Quarter will be strong. This will facilitate a rally. 4th quarter is a strong quarter anyway.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:57 - ID#207145)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 01:58 - ID#388209)
Bloop, the USD is like the S&P, go figure !
Except the S&P has the PPT for a guardian Angel !
Did you you see the S&P burn off 200 big ones while RR was away from his lap top playing Tammy Winnette in the Rose Garden during the Great One's press conference when El Supremo announced those way over cooked 2nd Q GDP numbers ? Can't have negative quarter when The Boy Prez must pound the table and yell, " I saved the economy STUPID, don't impeach my crooked penner !
Did you catch the mia culpas today of most of the major city police chiefs sayiy that they had materially cooked the books in a serious under reporting of crime statistics. Apparantly in Hilliray's villiage reporting the real crime rtte is politically incorrect. I have commented before on the Orwellian/ Carrolesq nature of most of the major statistics from this the most banal & corrupt of any US administrations.
"In the villiage the peaceful villiage the lyon sleeps tonight ! "
Those GDP numbers are more bogus ( they used rediculous inflation @ .09% / annum & silly estimates of consumer spending ) than the fraudulent earnings reports turned in by the money center banks ( the leading bank analyst, McCanlis believes that the 16% reported 2nd Q is actually 8 % ) & most of the S&P leaders ( While Disney's report may not be fraudulent their earnings were heavily skewed by major dubious shifts of loss carry forwards & other clumsy attempts of magic levitation like The Saucerer's Apprentice who accidentally multiplied the splinters in "Fantasia" ! See Barrons May ) ! Real earnings are probably less than 1/2 of what is touted, especially after all the accounting slight of hand endemic in most of these pithy mega mergers. Citiorp just pops to mind.

The trade deficit ( climed from $150 to $250 billion 2nd Q & headed to $300/350 in 3rd Q ) & the true fact that the US economy shrank & the perception that it will shrink again in 3rd Q, should finish the USD.
This will be devastating to S&P & mother's milk to Gold. Short term rates will be stuck as export manufacturers scream bloody murder & asia sinks further below the tsunami of the twin depressin events of deflation/debt destruction & over capacity. I continue to anticipate stagflation with log bond spiking through it's 7.5% old range top by Feb. Short rates will seriously lag the real inflation rate & Gold will jerk up against the
All, ofcourse, IMHIPO !
TALLY HO, good huntig & Godspeed mien Herr !



(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:04 - ID#252286)
The Magic Word Is Please

And PLEASE, to avoid any more farfel whimpering, do not say

Goodbye farfelonious,
Goodbye fartful
Goodbye farfelburger
Goodbye farfetched

He has made it clear he does not want to be called these names. I didnt make them up, other people on k1 did. A lot of people simply dont like him, as evidenced by the endearing nicknames.

No mention of avoiding the hazard of the door hitting his rear on the way out.

No snappy, "See you around, farfel." Because you wont, hes disappearing

Makes me laugh when I think of how loudly he brayed and grunted and postured and was constantly wrong. This is no sin in itself, being wrong, but when it is as constant as the sunrise, it is amusing. The true sin is to be found in his constant berating of everybody in site. They too, probably at one time, had similar thoughts about farfel, "Can you please just let me post?" But farfel was absolutely ravenous for fresh meat and would devour these posters daily with nary a thought as to how it made his victims feel. Read the anguished words of James on k1 on 6/30/98 to get a feeling for how brutally he hurt some people. He shouted down any and all, and rudely insulted people for not agreeing with him. farfel had no mercy, he would grind, and grind, and grind.

He wakes to find himself in a world of his own construct and begs

Please, OH PLEASE let me be!

But I wont.

He didnt

He even asks the wrong person

RJ left Kitco

Also, dont compare him to

Tim McViegh
Ted Kazinski
Marion Barry
Marv Albert
O.J. Simpson
D. Cohen
Richard Nixon
Bill Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Ted Bundy
Charles Manson

I dont want him to have nightmares wondering to just what degree

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:05 - ID#346209)
By mid october, the spx will be at a new high, about 1300 or so.
And XAU should be at 35 by then. Sorry and sorry.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:05 - ID#207145)
That was an excellent post. I know Disney was downgraded 3 times. Citicorp yes, and many more. Stock buy backs etc. you are right on. When will the crash happen ( ( when blue chips correct back to more like the broad market. )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:10 - ID#207145)
I would be a buyer of gold. The market will be scared to death of AG by October, and the bond market will be takin a shift. $4th Q will be real strong. 3rd Quarter sux. 4th kicks asp.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:11 - ID#207145)
Not a lot, but a little. Yes by Gollie it is in the cards.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:12 - ID#252286)
I do feel blessed because farfel blessed me

Once farfel is gone, RJ said he would come back. Probably to talk about the market and not all this silliness, just like the last, peaceful month when an F or a * was nowhere to be seen. I think that may be why RJ left in the first place, he received from farfel what farfel received from Jujube, and he couldn't go through that again. Slay the dragon, or crash and burn, but RJ made it quite clear he would never put up with that abuse again. I respect him for it. Nobody likes a carpet.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:14 - ID#207145)
Watch Oil real carefully
Everybody uses it. If we get an early winter. A cold one. You can make a fortune. Gold also. It is coming. It IS coming. So don't give up.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:16 - ID#252286)
Just so it is clear


Get lost, or live your life daily this way.

I take weekends off though, so you will have to expose all your own stupid mistakes yourself on those days.

And please Farfetched, its


(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:17 - ID#207145)
I'm in cash
I am real serious about makin a buck in next 3 months. Keeping my powder dry as RJ says. I probably will lose my but trying to be cool.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:20 - ID#207145)
I'm talkin to mysef, an he ain't lisnin'
So good luck goldsters, you deserve much better, and you will be blessed. Goodnight.

Let X=X__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:24 - ID#318235)

liberty is on k2. same guy asb

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:36 - ID#252286)
How does the Beverly Hillbillies song go at the end?

You know, the part after, "Yall come back now, hear?"
We are going to want to skip over that part.
Oh, I remember, it was Ellie Mays voice:

This has been a Filmways presentation

(Tue Aug 04 1998 02:52 - ID#252286)
A parting shot and then I will go shoot myself

farfel wrote:

"You have been through literal hell these past two years...yet you are all still standing...and laughing."

I guess he meant the drop in gold. He fails to mention that it was farfel's kind that talked you into buying all that gold.

He likes to slander RJ, but RJ has been telling people that gold would go down for more than a year. If people had listened to market reality and insight, instead of the mindless blather farfel spouts, the last two years would not have been hell.

It is your fault farfel. You and your ideological new paradigm idiots who pointed these people in that direction to start with.

You do evil in the world.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:03 - ID#252127)

Chill out and please continue to post your opinions about the markets -forget the food fights.
If you want to put an opposite spin, one other than what we get everyday from the Wall Street mavens and their mouthpiece CNBC Financial Entertainment Television, its your privilege.
Remember, you don't have to read what bothers you and you don't have to answer if it does.
If you get accused of influencing a newbee, you can always use words that do not imply that the projection you make is just that.
Remember if we were all so perfect we wouldn't be here trying to feret out a course of action.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:09 - ID#252127)
farfel (******) corrected part

Chill out and please continue to post your opinions
about the markets -forget the food fights.
If you want to put an opposite spin, one other than what
we get everyday from the Wall Street mavens and their
mouthpiece CNBC Financial Entertainment Television, its
your privilege.
Remember, you don't have to read what bothers you and
you don't have to answer if it does.
If you get accused of influencing a newbee, you can
always use words ( ****** ) that imply that the projection you make is just that.
Remember if we were all so perfect we wouldn't be here
trying to feret out a course of action.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:18 - ID#386245)
Old MacDonald had a farm...

Anyone know the Billy Field song 'Can't Help Myself'

Today I couldn't.

Help myself, that is.

There they were. Shares I sold last week for 15 1/2 cents x 200,000.

Just lookin' at me.

Sayin' "please buy me"

Cause nobody wanted 'em.


Today goin' for 12 cents.

Just couldn't help myself.

Anglogold paid 30 cents/share for 20% of the company.

HUGE prospects.

Gold comin' out their kazoos.

One minor problem.

Its still in the ground

EVERYONE knows gold is goin' to 250.

'cept me.

Just couldn't help myself.

Just couldn't help myself.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:18 - ID#24135)
The problem is ..
Gold Dancer ..
Drooy started making money ..
Shareholder dont like that ..
Homestake kmows the secret ..
You lose money now .. reward
comes in afterlife ..

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:19 - ID#252286)

Please scroll through the last two days on k2. Read farfels past words. Not the false and pretty and pandering words he chokes out between clenched teeth today, but the REAL farfel. Trust that the re-posts made here are a tiny fraction of farfels great crime. He happened to pick on some people I'm fond of, and he has chased away better posters than himself. So I chose to expose this slug. Please read the re-posts of farfels bile. Start with August 2, in the morning and continue through today. He wrote every black hearted word. Think of how the people he so cruelly offended felt? To have their families and good names dragged through the mud. To be assaulted with the worst kind of racist slurs because someone did not agree with him. I think you are new here. Please read the words, and see if you opinion has changed.

Oh, yeah, he has acted contrite and apologetic before. He always ends up rabid. Only one thing to do with a rabid dog, and he sure won't do it himself. Perhaps you see me as some mean fellow who has a grudge. Jujube is a new poster here, but I have followed this site for a long time. Another one like farfel will come along with the exact same positions on the markets. If you covet these positions so, wait for the next guy, he is bound to be a better specimen than farfel.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:26 - ID#252286)
Blodd ....loss ....... too.... much .... everything .... hazy ...

I hope I didnt shoot myself to soon. Wouldnt do any good to kill the one and only Jujube off with the body of farfel not yet cold.......

Slipping.....Fast..... can't... last...... much...... longer.

If I die to soon from this self inflicted wound, others will follow.

Many others

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:33 - ID#386245)
Wanna know their name???
More than just gold...check out the prices of V2O5....


Acquisition of the Balla Balla Vanadium Deposit


DATE: 1998/7/30


HOMEX - Perth

The Directors of Tanganyika Gold NL ( "Tanganyika Gold" ) advise that
the Company has negotiated an option and purchase agreement to
acquire a 100% interest in the Balla Balla vanadium deposit from
private interests. This deposit is located in the Pilbara region of
Western Australia, and has inherent infrastructure advantages in the
form of easy access from the North West Highway and close proximity
to the coast and the existing gas pipeline and electricity
transmission line.

Previous work ( including percussion and diamond drilling ) has
outlined a preliminary resource of about 83 million tonnes to a depth
of 100m with grades that typically range from 0.5%-0.9% V ( 2 ) O ( 5 ) .
Limited metallurgical testing of oxide and primary mineralisation has
provided encouragement that vanadium can be economically recovered,
however more definitive testing is required.

Following payment of an option fee of $50,000 to conduct due
diligence investigations the Company may elect to acquire a 100%
interest via staged payments totalling approximately $8 million during
the period 17 November 1998 and 1 August 2001.

The Balla Balls, vanadium deposit is located in proximity to the old
Whim Creek copper mine, approximately midway between Karratha and
Port Hedland. It is easily accessed from the North West Highway ( 9km
to the south ) and only 10km from the coast.

The deposit consists of a tabular body of titaniferous magnetite
18-35m thick and 7km long within a gabbroic unit of the Sherlock
Intrusion. It typically contains from 0.5% to 0.9% V ( 2 ) 0 ( 5 ) and
appears to have the uniformity of grade and thickness and the
continuity that characterise mineral deposits of this type.
Cross-cutting structures have resulted in dips that vary from 17deg
-25deg in the Eastern and Central sectors to 60deg in the Western

Exploration in the 1960's and the 1970's included eight percussion
holes and seven diamond drill holes totalling 555m. This drilling
provided the basis of a resource estimate of about 83 million tonnes
to a depth of 100m which was reported in 1974. Although this estimate
appears to be conservative, more information is required before an
inferred resource can be calculated in conformity with the current
JORC Code.

Previous work on the deposit also included limited metallurgical
testing on oxide and primary mineralisation. The results give
encouragement for recovery of vanadium in the form of vanadium
pentoxide flake ( V ( 2 ) 0 ( 5 ) ) , however more definitive testing is
required before the economics of mining and processing can be
properly assessed.

The location of the Balla Balla deposit has inherent advantages which
indicate favourable infrastructure costs for development. For
example, it is only 7km from the gas pipeline linking Karratha to
Port Hedland which has the capacity to provide abundant low cost
energy. In addition, it is 5km from the Cape Lambert - Port Hedland
electricity transmission line, is readily accessible by the North
West Highway from Port Hedland or Karratha, and only 10km from the
coast and an old landing at Balla Balla creek. If it can be
successfully demonstrated that salt can be utilised as the principal
source of sodium during the production Of V ( 2 ) O ( 5 ) flake, there is
scope to acquire low cost supplies from both Port Hedland and

To acquire this exceptional opportunity Tanganyika Gold has made an
option payment of $50,000 to undertake due diligence until 17
November 1998. During this period a program of aeromagnetic
surveying, drilling and metallurgical testing will allow reassessment
of the resource base and initial scoping studies for production Of
V ( 2 ) 0 ( 5 ) flake for export. Following due diligence, Tanganyika Gold
has the right to exercise its option to purchase a 100% interest via
a series of staged payments in the period 17 November 1998 to 1
August 2001, totalling approximately $8 million. These payments have
been structured in recognition of the normal decision points
associated with feasibility studies and subsequent mine development.
If a development proceeds the vendor will also be eligible for a

Enquiries: Technical: Jim Ross
Financial: Ian Middlemas

Telephone: ( 618 ) 9481 8400
Facsimile: ( 618 ) 9481 8411
Email. tangold@ozemail. com. au

Sorry Bart. Hey, if goldbugs can get a vanadium injection, who's to complain??

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:53 - ID#293379)

Berkshire Hathaway sells bonds, boosts Q2 net
OMAHA, Neb., Aug 3 ( Reuters ) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s ( BRKa - news )
net earnings for the second quarter jumped 325 percent to $1.18 billion
after a gain on the sale of its entire investment in U.S. government
long-term zero coupon bonds, it said Monday.
The company, controlled by legendary investor Warren Buffett, said its
second-quarter realized investment gains soared to $864 million from $23
million in the same period a year ago.

IMHO this is a sign WB thinks rates are near their lows and it was time to take a tidy profit. Interesting to ponder his next purchases... Watch the US equities market today--if rate are expected to rise, then the market will sell off, dollar will drop, and the metals will..... fall if the drop is perceived as a cooling of the economy or will they rise with the decline of the buck?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 03:54 - ID#252127)
Mother Russia

All media reports seem to say that Russia is going to pieces, is there anyone here that has a different spin?

I have been looking at Pan American Silver and although the Dukat project should be costly and take time before production it looks interesting. Will PAASF bring in a partner with deep pockets? Or stated differently, will a deep pocketed partner take the bait considering Russia's problems?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 04:32 - ID#230376)
In case you missed it......... 2nd to last paragraph seems to indicate someone esle noticed the ppt.....bbl

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:00 - ID#432148)
Gold Dancer - Your 02:21
Why did Buffett tell us he sold his zeros? Disclosure laws perhaps? And why did he do it? Standard answer is he thinks rates are going up? Maybe he has plans for the money which will be known to us, as Ed H. used to say, "in the fullness of time." Where is the money now? Ah yes, questions are easy, its the answers we must chase. And let us also remember, The Great B has not always been right, but I wish I had his average. ;- )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:02 - ID#432148)
Gold Dancer - 01:21
Correction on time.

Let X=X__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:12 - ID#318235)
nnouncement re Prices

All = up overseas

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:19 - ID#432148)
Russian market off over 23% per Yahoo
Unable to find explanation of why. Anyone have it?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:24 - ID#233199)
@Goldbug 23
The place is hosed - maybe somebody just figured it out?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:28 - ID#250121)
Has LGB been 404'd?
This is beginning to resemble the Court of Star Chamber. Someone may find an URL.
The problem being, your great Bartness, if the burghers around this Kafkaesque Castle do not know: who is punished, or for what reason, and if there is no hope of redemption, why, we are like Skinnerian rats, like ants in a schoolboy's aquarium and like, well, paranoid goldbugs. We exist uncertain of the cruel fates that drove our brethren ( and sistren ) from us, and we cower in fear lest we make the same, unknown error.

I thought LGB had been 404'd by his Lorel ( sp? ) employers for wasting too much time on the net when he should have been selling secrets to the merkan enemies, or something like that. ( It shall be spun into Limey's novel, no doubt ) now I find out he can post on K2 but not here.

I kinda miss the old buzzard. What needs to be done to un-404?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:39 - ID#185448)
Good morning, out there. Hi, Aura,-man, you must be the last one up in NZ?!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:40 - ID#432148)
The answers are all buried under this white stuff - we have been snowed!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:45 - ID#185448)
Some lawyer from New York filed a law suit against an austrian bank, which had sold 5 tons of Nazi-Gold to Turkey during WW II. Bank officials promised unlimited cooperation. Dont have not much further information so far but will keep you informed.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:54 - ID#432148)
Here is a better view, and there is gold under that stuff, Bart. The next frontier.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 05:54 - ID#250121)
Good Evening, squire. Your comment is reminiscent of an old joke told of NZ in the 60's when many more people were leaving than arriving "Will the last person to leave NZ please turn the light out." T-shirts are made of this today. You should visit.

You are correct about the lack of political colour amongst our merkin comrades. I mentioned the same things a while ago. The reaction was, well, fascist. BTW did you know? Before Bart changed servers a while ago I could not write the word "fascist"? I attempted to say this word in context of a political spectrum post... the message returned by this server was "Grow up" or something equally banal as my post was rejected.

I think that a generation of McCarthyism and then reaction to McCarthyism has coloured perceptions on the far side of your pond. I have friends whose fathers were proud to march against an anti-common man governement in the Water Front Riots of 1951. Wharves are NZ's liveblood. The workers were locked out. Anyone giving food to a striker was thrown in jail. Anyone publishing anything in favour of the strike/lockout was thrown in jail.

The extreme left and the extreme right all share coercion. One of the sons of Vienna ( ? ) Willhelm Reich, showed us how facsism is borne in the bosom of those who must be obey and be obeyed.

Long may free thought be allowed to blossom!


(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:09 - ID#250121)
Where'd I put my redhead matches?
I'm sure that Buffet's selling of zeros has nothing to do with ANOTHER's THOUGHTS that all paper will burn.

That is, paper that don't get flooded in the basements, eh? What ya do with several dozen rolls of, ahhem soggy T-paper? Make an FRN from it? would anyone notice the difference a few months down the track?


(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:13 - ID#255226)
Trading - Everything balances out.
The great fills I had on Friday...made up for them yesterday. I cancel replaced an SnP order. There was some kind of problem with their on line service, both sides of the order were filled, the orgininal and the replace. The result was a net short snp position half of what I thought. Then I put a market order in to buy silver when it was trading at 5.37, It never registered. They claim it was never received. At least I caught that error last night and was able to off set at 5.36.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:22 - ID#29048)
Vengold buys more Lihir

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:28 - ID#252391)
Little bounce in silver and gold and the S&Ps this early morning - what do you make of it.?

Clearly if it fails to hold in the case of the metals it has got to mean curtains

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:30 - ID#93241)
gold up... London

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:33 - ID#431263)
Just purchased 61.3 Million more Lihir shares @ A$2.38/share from Orogen Minerals! The slowest takeover in mining history just took a BIG LEAP FORWARD! Special thanks to Speed for keeping us up to speed so speedily!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:35 - ID#185448)
I' ve started to take the ideas of cyclical behaviour of economical reality into account. The difference to my assumptions so far is that cycles are nothing but statistical significancies ( please excuse my abuse of your tongue, anlo-saxons ) and Im rather willing to believe in fundamental data. But according to Blood, Sweat & Tears - What goes up, must come down. So maybe, we will be able to watch something theoretical like a Keynesian Liquidity trap in the near future, maybe along with deflationary impotence - clueless c-Bankers asking for political help -whatsoever. What makes the whole thing different this time ( at least for me ) is that the sequence of economical events follows rather a chaotic pattern - advance and decline full speed at the same time in different places of this globe.

Maybe this is the new paradigm: There is a surface and levels under the surface. Some guys are able to design the surface no matter what the inside looks like. I think, this virtual economic world wont work for ever. Probably a lot of people are looking for their matches.

When I was a little younger, I had a kitten, which was run over by a Peugeot 404. Always have to remember, when somebody gets 404ed.

Fully agree. The mechanisms of power have always been the same, its no matter of political direction.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
Russia warns miners on RR blockade

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:41 - ID#431263)
As I tried to explain to you last night when Russia was supposedly up 26%,IT WAS ALL A BIG MISTAKE! Bad dates! Bad quote! Never happened! Forget about it! Russia is a basket case! BIG losses ahead when ruble is devalued again!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:45 - ID#26793)
Japanese have second thoughts about winning Brazilian phone bid only last week!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:48 - ID#29048)
August 4, 1998

SoGen Fund May Advise Gold Fund Investors to Sell


It isn't every day that a mutual fund says it will give investors their money back if performance continues to sour, but at the SoGen funds, executives are preparing to do just that.

Officials at the fund company, a unit of Societe Generale, a large French bank, are moving closer to recommending that shareholders pull out money
from the company's closely watched gold fund, managed by the company's high-profile portfolio manager Jean-Marie Eveillard.

At issue: The prolonged slump in gold prices has slashed the value of stocks in the SoGen Gold Fund. The fund doesn't actually invest in the metal; rather, it purchases gold-mining stocks and shares of other companies that rise and fall based on the metal's price. Based on gold's recent performance, the fund's future doesn't look good. Monday, gold fell to $284 an ounce -- the lowest settling price since January, when gold fell to its lowest level in about two decades at $278.90 an ounce.

Mr. Eveillard says if gold prices don't start picking up steam in the next five months -- and lifting gold-stock prices with them -- he will write each investor and recommend redeeming shares in the fund. "We have publicly stated that come late 1998, and that's only a few months away, that if things aren't looking up for gold, I will write a letter to shareholders telling them to move on," Mr. Eveillard said Monday in an interview. Though it only has $26 million in assets, the SoGen Gold Fund has been closely watched by gold buffs since its inception in 1993. Mr. Eveillard launched the fund on the premise not all that different than the one made by investor Warren Buffett, when he made his big foray into silver -- that the demand for the commodity will continue to outstrip supply, thus keeping prices higher and pushing up the prices of related stocks.

But Mr. Eveillard says he didn't anticipate the selling of gold by some central banks, a move that has depressed gold prices and gold-related stocks. "We were making the same case Buffett made for silver, but he is so much smarter than I am that he picked silver instead of gold," Mr. Eveillard said. Though Mr. Eveillard won't say for sure that he will
close the fund by year end, analysts are betting he will and suggesting other investments. Elizabeth Basinger Stevens, vice president of mutual-fund research at Raymond James Associates in St.Petersburg, Fla., says investors can switch into SoGen's international or overseas funds, both of which are managed by Mr. Eveillard. "He has gold positions in the other funds," she said. Returns of the gold fund have broadly matched the soured market for the metal. So far this year, the fund has declined almost 9%, and around 25% over the past 12 months, according to Lipper Analytical Services. The fund's decline comes as Societe Generale continues to shop the SoGen funds, which have around $5.5 billion in assets.

Mr. Eveillard said if and when the funds are sold, he will stay with the new outfit for some time. In addition, he said none of the potential buyers are raising objections to his possible recommendation to close the gold fund if he sees fit.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:51 - ID#26793)
Japanese party leader says the govt. should stop propping up stock market

(Tue Aug 04 1998 06:59 - ID#26793)
Gutnick says precious metals are at the bottom but still no sign of an uptick.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:02 - ID#255226)
If gold, silver and xau can hold yesterday's lows we're in for a decent rally. If the xau has a a couple big days up on good volumne the bottom may be in for awhile. I noted a bit of fear yesterday. I'd like to see the snp get down to 1095-1085 before a rally. Current positions - lomg silver, flat gold, short SnP.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:06 - ID#57232)
The other side of the Gold Coin - unfamiliar gold investing rules
All: No one likes an investment that goes sour. But -- there is another side that we must be aware of in these inflationary +/- deflationary times. And -- that is -- who is selling/buying gold? Namely, is it some new country that is now on the 'gold fire sale' binge, or is it one of the old players? Is China finally devaluing? And -- I see little evidence of a world economic recovery -- except perhaps a glimmer in Japan. Can Japan survive a China devaluation? Can Europe survive loss of all of their SEAsian investments? I don't know.
I think we must be extra cautious investing in gold right now, because of the debt-ridden nature of the world. Straight, pure inflation was oh so much simpler. Now we must be alert to the fact that a currency collapse elsewhere may actually mean deflation in your currency. And -- if this continues eventually there will only be one currency standing. If there is not enough economic strength for it to stand alone, it will go too. If we do not repeat the 1929 scenario, we will come dangerously close before the relative comfort of inflation sets in again.
All: One last question -- did the US dollar go up like this relative to gold preceeding 1929? Hard to tell given that the world was on the gold standard -- but FDR did have to raise the dollar value of gold. We will not be able to answer this question, but we certainly could determine whether gold equities dropped faster than non-gold equities in the months before the 1929 crash.
After the 1929 crash -- about 1 1/2 years later -- gold stocks became the unquestioned leaders. I do not want a depression, but I do not know of any other way to cleanse the world of all that chocking undergrowth of debt.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:24 - ID#57232)
RR Strikes in Russia
donald: Morning! 10 day old miners strike? Seems like they have been doing this for years. I wonder -- is it right to consider these strikes blackmail when all the miners want is to get paid?
I certainly see no evidence of Russia turning the corner, though there are hints of that in Japan. All depends on whether Japan can survive a China devaluation.
Brazil and Venezuela are certainly not looking any better, either.
The Japan news is interesting. A senior leader says that they should not support the Japanese markets any more. And -- the Japanese people will be able to take their $6+ trillion US anywhere they want beginning in January 1999. US markets? One last bullish ride to the stratosphere?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:25 - ID#252391)
Thanks for sharing your positions. I'll be surprised to see much of an upmove. Thinking about kicking out the remaining metal postions I have on a rally here. Action in the CRB and all the metal charts are too bearish to justify hanging on to the even small perceintage of assets I have long.

This deflation thing has me worried that we'll see a prolonged contraction in the world economies and commodities. No sense hanging on to loosers - it just wears on you and clouds your vision for the good opportunities. Having said that I'll watch the dollar index and bonds, if these rallies of yesterday continue in the $ and Bonds yesterday's low give way in the metals and XAU it's time to fold tent and head for better camping grounds.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:31 - ID#252391)
You hit on the point I've been trying to find out pmore about for a few days here. The Japanese pension funds and the postal savings accounts will be able to move out of Japanese only investments beginnng in Jan of '99. Is that the information you have - perhaps you could enlighten me with what you know on this very critical issue.

Has to be very bullish for bonds and US equities come December of '98.

By then APH will have surely covered? Right APH - do you have anything on these Japanese funds that will be liberated??

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:33 - ID#57232)
And -- yet another appeal to Chief Justice Rhenquist
All: My guess is that WJC is wearing out his welcome with the Judicial branch. Could it be that he has something to hide? It worked in Arkansas, so I guess he thinks it will work in Wash DC too.

Please splice together, and change xttp to http

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:38 - ID#57232)
Got to get ready for work!
jims: All I know is the Jan 99 deadline. Could be a few months late to prop up the US markets, especially if WJC's mess gets worse. He loves living near the brink -- but I think this time he does not realize that he may not be able to pull away in time.
Also -- are the Japanese serious about not propping up their markets? If so, 'big bang' could be catastrophic for the world when the money starts running for the exits, even if it winds up in the US. What good are rising US markets if it the cost is Japanese demise?
I wish I had a crystal ball.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:40 - ID#228128)
Difference between U.S. ADRs and S.African prices
John Disney: I looked at some quotes on Durban Deep ( 12.5 Rand ) and Harmony ( 64 Rand ) and am wondering why there exists a price difference between the American ADRs. At 12.5 Durban Deeps would be $2.06 ( is 1 9/16 ) and Harmony at 64 Rand would be $10 ( is $4.00 ) at 6.2 Rand to the dollar. Are they typically this far out of sync with one another?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:45 - ID#411440)
@ all: many people on this forum have commented on the inability
of the Japanese govt to kickstart their economy. Reference was
made to imcompetent leaders, and a dogmatic following of strategies
tried in the 1930's by the Americans to jump start their economy.

I think the Japanese have been waiting until they saw the
NIKKEI bounce off 15000 and begin a slow climb, and the
DOW begin to stall and sell off.

That's when they announced their strategy to inflate the
yen, because a potential fall in the yen would be offset
by a drop in the dollar as the DOW et al tanks.

If there is any danger of the Japanese Pension Funds
leaving at the end of the year, they will sell their
American Treasuries to accelerate the dollars decline.
That should keep the funds in Japan.

Does any of this reasoning make sense?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:49 - ID#248180)
Russia - To Issue Gold Backed Certificates
Banker: Russia to Issue Gold-Backed Paper Soon

MOSCOW -- ( Reuters ) Russia plans to issue gold-backed government securities soon worth a maximum total of 50 tons of gold, a banker who participated in working out the program said on Monday.

Uneximbank deputy chairman Yevgeny Ivanov said that Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko signed main terms for circulation of the securities. Now the Finance Ministry is to issue a more detailed plan, he said.

The government will sell the paper, called "gold certificates," among gold miners who are to pay for them in kind. The miners will be obliged to sell the securities on the secondary market.

The government will hold auctions where miners can sell their certificates at the Moscow International Stock Exchange, the only exchange with a license for operations with gold. Ivanov added that first auctions would take place in September.

"Of course, not all 50 tons will be placed at once, there will be three or five auctions," Ivanov said. "It is clear that a $500 million issue in September, when the liquidity of the Russian baking system is quite low, is interesting to attract nonresidents."

Under the program, foreigners have the right to buy the certificates. But since none of them have licenses for operations with gold, they can only do that on the secondary market, or through a Russian bank agent.

Russian banks can also act as agents to export gold for foreign clients, Ivanov said.

He said the securities would have maturities coinciding with the schedule of gold mining with tranches maturing in August, September, October and November 1999. (  ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:51 - ID#29048)
Yes, and it jibes with the news that the highest tax rate will be cut from 65% to 50% in Jan 99. Other taxes will be cut also, but the plan won't be in place until year end. The Japanese are much more patient than the west.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:54 - ID#57232)
Yes it does make sense
rhody: Why should the Japanese government let its people invest outside Japan if there there is a real risk of wiping out the Japanese markets?
Sophisticated Japanese investors are now far more likely to choose US treasuries rather than US equities, and select European equities/treasuries, but the money is still very likely to leave. Maybe the real reason for the lack of concern is that most of it is gone already.
I have always wondered that the Japanese leaders might offer the Japanese people so that the Postal savings cash stays in Japan. There must be something -- I can't believe the Japanese leaders would blindly face oblivion in Jan 1999. Interesting times -- keep your powder dry ( getting harder and harder these days ) .

(Tue Aug 04 1998 07:59 - ID#252391)
IDF re Harmony
Don't know where you got your quotes - maybe the numbers you have are the earnings. Harmony in So Africa trades at about 26.00 rand or about $4 US dollars.

Re the Japanese Funds to be liberated in Jan'99 - I think something will have to give to keep them in Japan. That much capital allowed to leave would be devestating to Japan. I think I read where the leaders in Japan are lamenting the Big Bang already sounded. Would'nt be surprised to see new restrictions on money out flow. At a minimum they are going to have to give there people some reson to want to leave their depreciating yen in Japan. Once a number those folks start jumping the boat there will be a mad rush.

You can count me among those that don't think the Japanese have the imagination to do anything that will save what looks like the inevitable - a collapse of Japan Inc. US Bonds and stocks will go off in a spike like nothing ever seen ( with the exception of some internet stocks ) and then come crashing down to earth. That may finally be the bottom for gold ( and silver ) and the commencement of a new monetary order based on some backing other than government promises. I think we are at the point that governments become discredited world wide. A completely new finacial asset system may dawn with the new century built on the ashes of the yen and dollar debt which will eventually be repudiated as CBs make an attempt to stimulate the world economies by printing money.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:08 - ID#421269)

I'm showing December gold +1.40, is that right?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:18 - ID#411440)
@ JTF et all: I agree. It makes no sense to do the big bang
liberalization, and give the Postal Savings a chance to leave Japan
unless the Japanese gov't was pretty sure the funds will choose to
stay. There is something here we do not know.

I think the USD will be rapidly falling by October so the funds
probably will not flow to the US. The funds may go to EURO
denominated paper however. Maybe the Japanese are secretly
buying gold. Is there any way they can possibly back the yen
with as much gold as the EURO?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:20 - ID#252391)
To Isure
That's what I have +/- gold up $1.40 and silver up about 2-3 cents. Seems if there is any truth to the earlier post that the Russians anre going to issue gold backed certificates we may be about to see something happen. The reaction may be delayed, however, as sentiment sems so bearish as to not trust any rally - assuming there is one. Focus will be on Wall Street to see if the 40-50 point globex rally in the Dow can hold.

Looks like a very interesting day. Surprised to see so little positive reaction to the Japanese announcemnts, coupled with what looks like a break down in the IRAQI disarmament talks.

Gold may only rise AFTER chaos reigns.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:27 - ID#248180)
URL re: Russia - GOLD Cert.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:27 - ID#335190)
August 4, 1998

Policy makers change course as deflation hits Asia

SINGAPORE, Aug 4 ( Reuters ) - Government policy makers across Asia are steadily changing direction as a new threat emerges to their already embattled economies -- the prospect of serious deflation.

Economists define deflation as a sustained reduction in the general level of prices. It is often, though not always, accompanied by declines in output and employment.

Analysts say the switch to expansionary economic policies is inevitable but worry that it may not be enough.

Condon also warns that the price for such policies would normally be a further weakening in currency rates leading to a worsening of the situation for countries with large amounts of foreign debt.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:29 - ID#252391)
To Rhody
The Japanese ought to be buying gold both personnally and by their government - bet the idea hasn't even crossed their minds. We have to remeber thatthe politicos that run Japan are not the country's rulers - the silent financial king pins pull the strings and they have their bets made on the yen/dollar/bond trade. They have a very good thing going there and I doubt are in any hurry to see it end. Japanese funds may very well go to the Euro, certainly will in part. Unless the DOW comes apart in October why would the dollar fall.

I think this October crash scenerio is too pat. Keep your eyes peeled for something else. I think your are right, rhody, the Japanese government has to think of something to keep money in Japan - but the operative workd is "has to" no guarantee at all they will.

Better bet is the house of cards will come down around them and they will just stand there..... Don't under estimate the ability of the Japanese to do nothing in the face of crisis,

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:32 - ID#427357)
ORACLES OF THE ORIENT Japan Key To Asia's survival

Kitco focus this morning is focused on JAPAN. I too believe what the Nippons do will necessarily determine what happens to the rest of us...
and to GOLD.

Due to the continuing turmoil in the Asia in recent months,
financial media is plastered with stories of how the economic
plight of the Far-East may well reach Western shores in the
not too distant future.

The current crisis in Asia and its contagion effect - now known
as "The Domino Effect" - threatens to infect Western
economies. Therefore, the Western world has brought Asia
into sharp focus. Businessmen from Boston to Buenos Aires to
Bern to Berlin to Bahrain to Baghdad must necessarily concern
themselves of what is occurring in Asia - and what impact
currency devaluations and massive loan defaults will have on
Western economies from Wall Street down to Main Street.

Undoubtedly, the deterioration of Asia's economic and
financial sectors will us affect us ALL.
As Asia goes... so goes the West.

At the following URL you will find a slew of articles, studies and reports dealing with Asian economies - but especially what is happening in JAPAN. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:37 - ID#30116)
I could bother you folks with
long term charts and stuff, but let it suffice to say that we are either very near the bottom in gold or about to fall in to the abyss. Long term support on the CRB is about 200. If we take that out, then I think we might be falling in to the abyss. We have taken out many of the previous lows for gold stocks ( if you consider the early ninties as a 'bottom' ) . Yes, a major implosion or a major bottom will very soon be upon us. Look at the sentiment, gold to go to zero! I think not. A spike down? Yes. Then we shall see what happens. Personally, I believe in shopping BEFORE Christmas, not on December 24th. Then again, I usually get the wrong gifts... :- ) )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:40 - ID#335190)
Kosovo @ USofA Warning
August 4, 1998

Aid agencies report difficulty reaching Kosovo refugees

PRISTINA ( AP ) -- International aid agencies were struggling to reach tens of thousands of Albanian refugees camped in the woods of Serbia's Kosovo province after Yugoslavian attacks forced them to flee their villages.

Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova, who met with U.S. envoy Christopher Hill Monday, blamed Serbs for exacerbating the problem in Kosovo.

In Washington on Monday, the U.S. administration announced NATO approved a plan to use firepower against Yugoslavian forces in Kosovo, warning another offensive could trigger a "humanitarian catastrophe."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:48 - ID#259400)
Rhody, JTF, Speed
There is a lot of bewilderment out there about why the Japanese don't do this or that or the other but the long and the short of it is there is not much they can do. The have signed a faustian pact with the devil and are locked in death embrace with the US. It all goes back to the Korean war. The US was between a rock and a hard place. We wanted to put large numbers of troops and material on the Korean peninsula. There were all sorts of problems in doing this. US manufacturing had ramped down from WWII production of armaments and was running full bore to fill the needs of the civilian economy. There was not enough manufacturing capacity available to fight a Korean war without reviving WWII type rationing. No one wanted to bite into that sour apple politically so the guns and butter decision was made. The Japanese economy was still and shambles in 1950. Almost no recovery had taken place from the total devastation of WWII. It was decided to use Japanese manufacturing capacity to help win the war in Korea. This was done by transferring certain portions of our domestic production to the Japanese thereby freeing up plant capacity for arms. The rest of the agreements were strategic in nature. The US considered it of the utmost importance that we maintain a "floating air craft carrier" off the coast of Russia. Sort of a far east england. All policies for the next generation stemmed from that strategic need. As time went by we developed this symbiotic relationship whereby the Japanese provided us with cheap goods and in turn bought our budget deficits. We gave the Japanese free and unfettered access to our markets and they allowed us to continue our deficit spending. Both sides profited. The chickens come home to roost 50 years later. Decisions that were made that seemed logical at the time make no sense now. We no longer need a "floating aircraft carrier" off the coast of Russia, etc. However I become long winded. The reason I feel the Japanese will do nothing is I don't see what they can do. If they start dumping our debt back in our laps we will shut off their imports. The Japanese economy is extremely dependent on the US markets. Take that away and they are just another little island in the pacific with a poorly devloped internal economy. The US on the other hand is also screwed. If we do not allow them free and unfettered access to our markets they will dump our IOU's. Has no one out there ever wondered why the US government gave away entire industries like electronics to the Japanese? Has no one out there ever wondered why $2.00 a pound Louisian rice cannot be sold in Japan where the going rate is $16.00 a pound. Has no one ever wondered why the price of a Toyota in Japan is kept artificially high so that it could be sold cheaper in the US? It's all strategic my friends. All US government decisions are strategic in nature. In any event I just can't see the Japanese doing anything to upset the status quo. It's all they have.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:50 - ID#25257)
short coverage
"The Shorts are upon you Samson." Short covering boosting gold momentarily, but 277 seems to be looming in the future.
Article on retracement of gold prices in Londonn this morning on cnnfn.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:50 - ID#30116)
On the DOW
Now that the Dow has taken out the 100 DMA, why not try for the 200 DMA? I have to seriously wonder about this run up in the Globex. Run the indexes up to attract money for rotation out ( otherwise known as distribution ) ?

Another point to consider; This 'new found', albeit obscure index, the ECI ( Employment Cost Index ) is purported to be AGs 'favorite' tool for looking at wage pressures. Why is it that we seem to find out about these indicators now whilst in prior history there is scant if any refernce to them? And if we are to believe in this indicator along with the housing numbers, wouldn't this indicate inflationary pressures? Remember, the economy has a 'mass' associated with it, and this implies inertia. 'A body at rest tends to stay at rest and a body in motion tends to stay in motion..' Don't expect an overnight crash...........

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:56 - ID#411440)
@ panda: I think we are near the bottom. Lease rates are well
under 1% ( although Bart is still not posting them ) , and this places
CB leasing at the limit of its capacity to engineer the gold carry.

We are now beginning to see a host of negative articles appearing,
including the old boogie boo of actual CB sales, that Bolivian
gold discovery farce ( MINE ) , and lots of comments about $250 gold
in the cards. Words are cheap. Leasing gold to short sell it
this close to the bottom could be very expensive.

If we are on the brink of an abyss for gold, then the entire world
is finished, and no where is safe.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 08:59 - ID#335190)
Minor Miracle @ 12 % Interest & First Nations People's Rights ( Who are TRILON FINANCIAL?)
August 1, 1998

Kemess gold buried beneath legal mountain

KEMESS, B.C. ( CP ) -- At Canada's newest gold and copper project in remote north-central British Columbia, mountain valleys echo with the relentless rumble of success.

Giant dynamite drills, shovels, and rock crushers roar around the clock. Ore grades match predictions. Morale is high.

The $480-million Kemess open-pit mine was built to be the cash-flow cornerstone Peggy Witte's Royal Oak mining empire.

But it is hitting commercial production $100 million over initial estimates, just as gold and copper prices have lurched to 10-year lows.

It will take a minor miracle to pay the principal on an 11th-hour, $120-million U.S. construction loan with a 12 per cent interest rate
"With the current gold price, we can service our interest," Witte told the Ottawa Citizen. "We can stay alive. To actually generate the cash to pay them ( Trilon Financial Corp. ) , we need $340 to $350 ( U.S. per ounce ) gold."

But gold prices fell below $290 U.S. per ounce this week. There is almost no prospect of a net profit from Kemess before Royal Oak's debt to Trilon comes due in 22 months.

In the last two months Royal Oak lost $10 million on the $120 million U.S. it owes Trilon. And that's the good news.

The bad news is that the deal to build Kemess -- put together by Witte and then-NDP cabinet minister Glen Clark -- faces five serious legal challenges.

Witte maintains there is no legally viable aboriginal title at the Kemess site. If there is, she warns, "We would have a huge claim against the B.C, government. Because they gave us the permits."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:00 - ID#344236)
Thanks for info on Adelaide Exchange. Will go and check out cost of ag there. Will report back. Enclose reminder link

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:02 - ID#288186)
panda, rhody; Right on...My thinking as well...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:03 - ID#30116)
My sentiments exactly. If all is about to turn in to mal-oderous brown stuff, then what you really need is a chunk of steel capable of spewing forth some base metal stuff.

The question that I have is this; When the news comes out IN FAVOR of gold ( such as rising housing prices, wages, etc. ) how fast do you think gold will go up and the Dow down? I can SEE how many 1/2 Mil. and up homes are being built everywhere around me. I see few 'starter' homes being built. Nop, this says to me that the money ( or credit ) is out there. Someone just has to say that the emperor has no clothes.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:10 - ID#30116)
Time to make the doughnuts?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:16 - ID#374204)
Just in at Bloomberg network
Gold UP $3.40 .... Yen off .70.... What's up here?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:17 - ID#254269)
Catnappers R us ?.................... Today's WSJ has a front page article about .
gangs of thieves that are stealing Caterpillar bulldozers and other construction equipment from construction sites. Seems a stolen bulldozer can fetch $100 K at auction.

Now, what are bulldozer options going for ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:18 - ID#335190)
Bill2j @ 8:48
Great overview of Japan & USofA economic difficulties. Well done.

1888---President Grover Cleveland, Annual Message to Congress:

 As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the existence of trusts, combinations and monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel.
Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the peoples masters...

Thanks Take Care.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:24 - ID#374204)
Another Bloomberg update - Gold UP $3.70

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:24 - ID#317193)
F*...something still UP with gold...
Have to check August delivery notices to see if that says anything. Gold up a bit today.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:27 - ID#428142)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:27 - ID#421269)

Can someone tell me whats going on with gold and silver Quotes, they are all over the place?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:27 - ID#344236)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:28 - ID#421269)

Showing gold at 290.30

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:28 - ID#286253)
WGC's weekly commentary, FWIW (some may not have seen it)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY
( July 27 - July 31, 1998 )

Market activity remained subdued last week, with price movements still largely being dictated by exchange rates. Aside from the concern being generated by the possibility that attractive domestic gold prices in Australia and South Africa might prompt increased producer forward sales, yen movements against the US dollar continued to be taken as a
proxy for likely Asian demand for gold; a higher yen is seen as supportive for gold prices, while a lower yen is interpreted as likely to depress gold demand across Asia.

After a late sell-off at the end of the previous week, gold opened on Monday toward the lower end of its recent $290-$296 trading range. The election of Keizo Obuchi as Japanese prime minister was seen as a conservative choice by a slightly disappointed market looking for radical reforms in the Japanese economy. No obvious trend emerged initially
for the week, in spite of some rumours of central bank activity, and gold held close to the $290 level in the early part of the week. With the over the counter options expiry looming, there was talk of a large volume of "strangles", with some players having sold call options above the market and puts below in the hope that neither would be triggered. In the event, gold remained around $290 until after the expiry. Thereafter, with the price freed of option-related constraints, prices started to weaken as the yen came under renewed pressure in the foreign exchange markets. Quotations bounced back up to $290 on Thursday in spite of continued
yen weakness, only to fall sharply late on Friday to end the week just above $286 in New York.

The latest figures published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed another small increase in the net short position of the large speculators on the Comex, rising from 37,659 contracts
( equivalent to 117.1 tonnes ) to 39,676 contracts ( 123.7 tonnes ) in the two weeks ended July 28. Since then, there has been little change in the Comex open interest, suggesting no significant moves in speculative holdings on the exchange. It should be borne in mind, however, that
much greater volumes of speculative activity are transacted on the over the counter market, for which no statistics are released.

Nearby gold lease rates firmed over the past week, with the one-month rate rising from 0.7% to 0.8%, indicating that there may have been greater demand for liquidity to finance speculative short positions. Longer dated maturities were barely changed, the 12-month firming only marginally to 1.59%, implying that producer hedging demand remained steady.

Russia is considering the issue of gold-backed government securities up to a maximum of 50 tonnes. The plan would appear to be designed as a means of funding the domestic mining industry, in that the government would sell the certificates to gold mining companies who would pay for them in gold. The mining companies would in turn realise cash by selling the certificates on the Moscow International Stock Exchange. The securities would have maturities in August, September, October and November 1999, coinciding with scheduled mine output.

If you have any questions or comments on this input, please address them to George Milling-Stanley in our New York office, Tel. +212 317 3800,
Fax. +212 688 0410, E-mail

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:34 - ID#147201)
rhody your 8:18
A private Jap group bought 40% of CLN a while back. I have heard a few rumours of some Jap interest in a few other penny golds. This is still smoke, but maybe they are secretly poking around as you said. Charlie

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:38 - ID#212197)
Silver Warehouse Stocks??? Does anybody have the newest numbers??
A few people on whom I got used to rely upon seem to be on vacation.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:45 - ID#288186)
ALBERICH; Here's the Comex Warehouse Totals....
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 3

Gold 1,092,254 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 79,136,133 + 628,695 troy ounces
Copper 55,719 + 0 short tons

N/A= Not available.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:49 - ID#24135)
Golden Oldie
for Salty ..
Watched ancient film "Green Dolphin Street" on
satellite ... Lana turner fighting the Maori wars ..
Those maori war chants sound just like the All
Blacks. The natives must have picked them up at the old
rugby matches.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:54 - ID#354133)
JTF, Re: your 21:57
The word I got was that Sadam has given an ultimatum: end sanctions by the end of 1998 "or else." I usually ignore silly little warnings from this terrorist, but this time it is different. He has had sufficient time since the Gulf war to develop newer/different chem/bio weapons and there are still several hundred SCUD and other surface-to-surface missiles still unaccounted for. He's been playing cat and mouse with the U.N. inspectors and it is their belief that Iraq has been successful in hiding some things from them. Given Sadam's penchant for exploiting chaotic situations with what remains of the alliance, his threats may be real this time. This combination of facts creates a dangerous atmosphere. Even if the ultimatum turns out to be a bluff, a bombing attack by the U.S./U.N. air forces is becoming a more distinct possibility for a number of reasons:
- U.N. inspectors have been taking painstaking measurements of the structures they have been inspecting. Precise intel on targeted structures are required to maximize the effects of many of the U.S. precision guided munitions. Why else document such detailed structure information but for potential targeting?
- A pre-emptive attack could be ordered by Clinton so as to avert the attention of the U.S. citizens away from his domestic problems.
- Chaos and confusion ( should the impeachment of Clinton become a reality ) would provide enough reason for Sadam to initiate some sort of action.
- Some new U.S. weapons options are now available - tested but unproven in battle. Should the opportunity arise, the developers will be eagerly advocating their employment.
- A few months ago, while Sadam was still resisting U.N. pressures for full/open inspections, there was a media blitz on the stockpile and tremendous capability of new U.S. weapons. Since that time, some of the limitations of these weapons have become known. Sadam may be ready to call what he perceives is a bluff.

Keep you eyes open for clues of an eminent posturing for an attack: increased biased media coverage of Sadam's threats/antics - designed to sway the public towards advocating an attack; increased militaristic rhetoric from U.S. "leadership" - the State Department, Joint Chiefs, Clinton, et al; a new media blitz on how fabulous the U.S./U.N. arsenal is; movements of Naval vessels to the region; more allegations of Iraqi violations of the U.N. sanctions; more allegations of Iraqi terrorism, radar illuminations of alliance aircraft, violations of no-fly zones, etc

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:59 - ID#24135)
Time warp quotes
idt ..
wee .. this AM deeps was 10.8 rands
and Harmony is somewhere around 25
rand .. your quotes are maybe a few
years old OR hopefully quotes to
come that you obtained via a time
warp in cyberspace ..

(Tue Aug 04 1998 09:59 - ID#411259)
..... A beautiful Morning but will it last? .....

Prices are up all around. Seems the lows held. Still no immediate hope for gold, at least not until January 1999. Silver managed to dodge a bullet as APHs support line held. PGMs way fun tween now and October. Some questions were asked of me the last couple days on K1. I will try to address those later today.

Meanwhile, we will watch this new gold market together, yes?


(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:04 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 Cutchogue F D
Did you make the big BBQ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:05 - ID#411259)
..... K2 suits me well .....

Yes, I will continue to post over there.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:13 - ID#286230)

Scripting Slick Willy's apology

Ottawa Bureau
OTTAWA -- For all the whining, wimped-out apologists for a guy who would probably be in jail as a common masher if he weren't commander-in-chief, the ultimate summer theatre beckons.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:17 - ID#347235)
F* on K-2 for a brief time, other stuff
All, F* was posting on K-2 Briefly and apparently was trying to behave himself but someone who he thought was RJ in diguise ( I don't know if this was true ) ran him off.

Gollum, wife still doing well?

I am moving to Garmisch-PArtenkirchen soon with my wife who has accepted a position with the Strategic Studies Institute there, will let everyone
know when I arrive there. I personally will be re-retired and doing much photography on speculation for sale, many many beautiful sights over there.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:21 - ID#411440)
Re Sam__A WGC weekly report on lease rates: If lease rates have
risen slightly to .8% from .7% this indicates a slight increase in
demand for gold for shorting purposes. Today's rise in POG is
probably related to short covering, from Friday's and Mondays drop.
I still think we will see under 280 gold, and it's going to stay
down until the USD weakens. Now if gold could put a couple of
$2 up days in a row, and the US$ is flat, to declining, that would
make me feel a lot safer.

How about this BOC strategy for supporting the Canadian dollar: Sell
USD reserves to buy gold instead of Canadian dollars? Can't CBs
sell high and buy low just like ordinary mortals?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:21 - ID#411259)
..... How much energy does it take to cool California in a single day? .....


Only 45 thousand megawatts.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:22 - ID#208393)
Thanks for keeping the F*/RJ soap opera on K2.
Personally, I'm getting as tired of it as I am of those purple numbers up top.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:24 - ID#246224)
Daily (Spot) Silver forming channel, just bounced off ..
the bottom. Previous bottoms at 4.95, 5.10, 5.30 and now 5.35 ( higher lows ) . Previous tops 5.50, 5.40 triangle leading to breakout at bottom 5.30. Break out to 5.85 then down here again ( 5.35 ) . We could do one of two things here; go into a classic sawtooth in upward trending channel or form another triangle with upside breakout. Next top IMHO to be 5.90 to 6.00. Then back down to 5.40 - 5.50 range.

I find the sell off pattern from the initial run up ( 4.95 to 5.50 ) to be a slightly hesitant slump followed by a steep selloff. Very similar is the most recent 5.85 to 5.35 sell pattern. Seems to be some profit taking with eye on who might buy in at slightly lower levels, when this fails then more convinced selling. Looks like a basic upward trend with technical trading - predictable, and profitable to play.

Nothing terribly mysterious here, just the daily chart and my opinion.

Do not take this as advise of any kind. If you trade its you solo in the air. Wing it if you will. I could be right, wrong or fried. All disclaimers apply. Never mention this post again if things go badly. Will crow well if things go goodly. Speculators beware. Commericals, COT, etc.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:27 - ID#212197)
@FOX-MAN: Thank you very much for the warehouse numbers for gold
and silver.

Silver is under 80 million, but gained 600K overnight. I wonder where this comes from. But anyhow, I think this is historically around the lowest which we ever had. The annual consuption seems to be around 500 million ounces.
When the demand side doesn't suffer an unexpected break down and the supply deficit resumes, these 79 million should rather sooner than later evaporate. The physical balance should be hard to manipulate towards north, but very easy towards south.

Let's assume 40 million are available. Why doesn't anybody buy it?? It doesn't take a WB anymore to do that.

Go SIVER, take advantage of your historical chance!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:28 - ID#373284)
rhody, Namaste'
No they can't CB's have the intelligence of a lighter with no flint...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:29 - ID#348127)
Gold Future

I asked my spirit guide what the future was for gold last night.
She showed me a line chart with 4 distinct spikes on it. I was not able to make out time frames on it, but after looking at a chart this morning, my guess is that the valley I saw in the chart was for this time period. Incidently the first spike brought us back to where we were 2 years ago. The second through forth spikes came on he heels of each other and looked to take it up to the 800-1000 level before dropping off a bit. Chart gave me emotions. On one hand it was nice to see it up, but I really thought it would break 2500 an ounce. Sorry no evidence

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:29 - ID#411440)
POG: Gold now off 50 cents to $285.55. Kitco graph is showing
a pattern which is either volotile, or data entry problems.
Volotility would be nice.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:33 - ID#411259)
..... kitkat .....

I agree it is best to keep K1 tranquil and productive. I have been doing my best over the last month to participate in that spirit. Then some old ghost showed up next door and blamed his horrible past behavior on me. This was not friendly or wise, so I left. A masked rider appeared to set things straight, and all are appreciative. It is sad that Jujube shot himself though, so the fracas cannot not be termed as blood free. Three casualties:



Productive and peaceful usage K2.

The last is not dead, just needs some resuscitation

I will find the xyphoid process, count two fingers up, interlace fingers of both hands, place heal of hand on breastbone, and One.. and Two And Three and Tour and .. Breath .


Mike Stewart
(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:34 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
Nothing new here.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Oscillator was just above 0 on Friday. Toronto was closed on Monday, so we will check the numbers today and tomorrow for follow through.

New lows on Toronto mining issues are between 15 and 20 per day. This has not expanded, nor are they anywhere near the levels of the last low in January. This is neutral.

The gold/WG580 ratio ( WG580 is the Worden Brothers gold index ) is very oversold. It hit a new extreme yesterday at levels not seen since late 1992. I like to see a new low hold for ten trading days. The count will begin today.

Buying here is for the brave. The more careful should wait for these indicators to begin to improve. ( I admit to be in the brave camp, and accept the downside risk ) .

Gusto Oro
(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:36 - ID#430260)
metals prices...
AOL has December gold at $290 and September silver at $5.42 an oz.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:41 - ID#286253)
@ rhody re yr 10:21 - Lease rates & BOC Support for $C.

The BOC should say that it will buy all Cdn gold production at 50 cents over the London fix. Help the mining industry, help the guv's books, help the gold markets.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:45 - ID#19870)
@ Farfel
Cut it out! You know you don't need anyone's ( other than Bart's ) permission to post here. We all read Bart's post yesterday -- or should have. K2 is a free-for-all. Anything goes. Why? Because Bart has no intention to get advertising to underwrite this site.

Farfel, you're not dumb. K2 represents a tremendous opportunity -- for many of us, of course, but especially -- for you!

Events are bearing down hot and heavy. The bulk of all metalheads remain still to be converted. They will come here. Even here, K2. And what will they find? I guess that's up to you.

Don't blow it, friend -- for the sake of those here? Nah, but -- for the sake of those to come. Log on.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:46 - ID#412172)
To save the patient must keep blood flowing
The Red Cross approved CPR cycle is 15 compressions/2 breaths. The compressions are done at the rate of 15 in 10 seconds so the and between numbers may slow you down too much. You should be able to complete 4 cycles of 15/2 in one minute. While at this critical juncture First Aid in communications are important for the life of our discourse, CPR , if you have ever done it for real, is EXHAUSTING.
It is much easier to tell the truth.
Speaking of which, what is going on in PM's?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:48 - ID#412172)
My 10:46 was especially for
RJ. When talking PM's always good to give Lifesaving advice.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:51 - ID#224363)
@sam__A - BOC

From what I've seen over the last 18 months from the Bank of Canada, I'm not sure that they could balance a cheque book let alone, handle an interesting idea like buying gold at $0.50 plus London Fix.

The Bank of Canada, and the Canadian Government, has essentially given up the right to manage the value of our currency. Through mismangement they have handed that right to the market players ( which is not altogether a bad thing except when you consider the power of the $US and currency speculators ) .

(Tue Aug 04 1998 10:56 - ID#412172)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:05 - ID#411440)
@ Sam__A re BOC purchasing gold: When gold was fixed at $43,
the Canadian Govt paid a premium for all Canadian gold production, and
it was a darn sight more than .50 over spot. Last time I looked,
the Chinese were paying their mines $320 per oz. So much for the
triumph of capitallism over communism! ( not that China is communistic
in the classical sense, it has more the atributes of a central planned
fascism. )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:06 - ID#268260)
Echo Bay Mines Sell off
A big trade of Echo Bay Mines stock occurred about 10 AM. ECO dropped by 1/8 in heavy volume to $2.00. The volume of the sales thus far today is more than twice the 30-day average. And this happened just a day or two after one of the big brokerage houses upgraded ECO. Not a good portent for the POG and shares. Any thoughts?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:07 - ID#20432)
Predicting the Future

My first post here. Nice to be among such a civil group.

I have always wondered why economists put forth such complicated explainations for everything, why no two of them ever seem to agree and why few of them are ever anything but fractionally correct.

About three years ago I discovered a fellow by the name of Harry Dent. Harry has discovered somthing that is such an accurate predictor of the future with regard to financial performance that I consider the information to be of a profound nature. It is very difficult to argue the logic of his approach and in the three years I have followed his recommendations he has never been wrong.

So what does he do? He has done studies to determine at what age an individual disperses the most cash in his/her life. In the US around 1955 it was age 45, since then it has climbed to around 47. Then Harry takes the birth records of a country and creates a graph by moving the number of births forward 47 years to create a spending wave. If you take the S&P 500, adjust the dollars for inflation and overlay the S&P 500 performance on the spending wave it is nearly an exact match. He further defines inflation as paying more for somthing that you should have to pay and this is defined as 20 to 25 year olds coming into the work force. Every inflationary window in the U.S. can be traced back to a wave of 20 to 25 year olds coming into the workplace.

This simple logic makes total sense and can be calculated for every country. Want to guess what Japans problem is? Their spending wave has collapsed. Further, it has dropped off sharply and will remain poor for the next 5 to 10 years. Japans spending wave does not come alive again until 2009. As you all know, Japan is just holding on right now and the slightest provocation will cause the inevitable full collapse of Japan to occur. Comparitively speaking, the demographics of the other Asian countries are all excellent. So what happens when Japan finally collapses? Does the rest of the world get a jolt? Yes. Is it terminal? No. In fact it will create new lows on all of the major Asian markets followed by the U.S. and Europe filling the vacuum, taking up where Japan left off and causing a boom in Asia that will be incredible starting within two to three months after Japan collapses. Get ready to put some serious money in Hong Kong because there is a high probability of doubling your money in 12 months there.

You can subscribe to Harry Dent via By way of disclaimer I have no interest financial or otherwise with Mr Dent, I am just a fan who has profited enormously from his advice.

So why would I partcipate in a gold discussion group if the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are so strong ( and they are ) . We are about to enter into the third and final spending wave of the baby boom generation and after this correction the DOW will head right on up to 21,000+.

Here is my logic. If it were not for Y2K I would not touch gold with a ten foot pole. I am a twenty year telephone/network and computer professional and I sincerely believe that Y2K will solve a lot of problems for all of us. Central government in this country will be in a shambles. Panic will undoubtedly ensue with the first bank that is run ( that you actually hear about ) , the first time the US Treasure can not pring social security and welfare checks or manage the sale of new treasurys even for a short time then faith in US treasurys will plummet, money will have to be printed and gold will pop. I don't personally believe that gold will stay at $1000.00 to $3000.00 forever, in fact it may just be a few to six months. But if you are holding and you sell it you will be on top of a major pile of cash to re invest in the final run up of the DOW. By the way, the US spending wave drops off sharply around 2009 so you may want to reinvest your profits back into gold because according to the spending wave we are going to enter the mother of all depressions at that time.

It has been very educational for me to learn of the silver and gold supply demand imbalance, some of the implications for the Euro and a few other tid bits that all make me feel like the bow is being drawn tighter and tighter. Consider this, Asia will be booming next year ( Japan will not participate ) Europe has major Y2K issues on top of the Euro conversion. The US will have major Y2K issues. Europe won't be viewed as safe, the US won't be viewed as safe and Asia will still be viewed with suspicion. Where to put your cash? Metals seem like the only refuge remaining.

By this time next year the panic will have occured. Many believe that Y2K is a December 1999 problem. Far from it. Just think of how many companies are on a fiscal year. July 1 will be a major problem for many. I think you will have seen the first bank runs prior to that. Our own government is on an October fiscal year. By November 1999 at the latest gold will have exploded. I have been buying as many gold futures options as I can afford.

In the spirit of the group, GO GOLD!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:09 - ID#431263)
DOWSOAR +60 IS NOW DOWDUMP -42! Heh..heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:14 - ID#19870)
@ Allen (USA), re. your 10:24, cf. Metals Markets
Whoa, Allen! You're going technoid on us! That's great! I've always respected your macro analysis; watching you apply your gray matter to the micro stuff will be fun.

That's what I love about this or any market: Anyone's guess is as valid as anyone else's, because nobody really knows what will happen. ( Credibility, of course, is a whole other issue. )

The markets ( especially the metals, commodities ) -- where, based upon their beliefs ( about whatever ) , guys risk their treasure -- this tracks the serious and earnest movements of people all over the world. The markets are the day-by-day and play-by-play minutia comprising the huge crawl forward of human history -- like an open window into the Book of Revelation. And Babylon will burn. And the merchants will wail in lament of her destruction. But in the meantime, yeah, I agree. There's some profits to be made in silver. I'm still seeing $7 before the end of this month. How can I say this with certainty? Why, simple. I have zero credibility. Fun, huh?

Wish you well. God bless.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:18 - ID#373284)
The media is pathetic...this whole thing against Clintler by Starr does NOT center
around Monica, she is not even a bug crushed on the windshield. Starr is going after impeachment for criminal activities that started in Mena and ended up in the OUR House/White House for treasonable activities. Should the House and Senate grow some guts they will proceed with impeachment and perhaps for the first time...criminal charges...don't count on gutless politicians though, perhaps the silent majority will force such an issue with the threat of sending them home via the voting booth... lack of easy money makes men of mice...

While everyone has concentrated on the meaningless fluff the fact is that Starr is winning virtually every legal battle and the Supreme Court is backing him up to the hilt...

I am waiting for the cracks in the non existant relationship between Clintler and the First Bunt Cake to show up, greed and lust for power do show rats for what they are in the end...EnviroWhore Gore will be so covered in the disease his political career will be over...Reno is on the list look for RR to jump ship...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:20 - ID#431263)
Herr Predicting the Future!
Du bist meiner Bruder, fleisch von fleisch! Feel free to post here any time and keep us informed about the demographic predictions of Herr Harry Dent! Sounds logical to me?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:21 - ID#373284)
oh yeah, Namste' a gulp to ya, from the Island that is Long.............................
and go gold, silver and platinum...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:24 - ID#373284)
ah hem... should be Namaste'
better slow down on the gulps, nah...gulp to ya...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:25 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 Clintler
Boy, you got that right. It's fixing to blow

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:27 - ID#431263)
Wouldn't base my gold outlook on Echo Bay? It's a real DOG! ARF! ARF! No wonder Merrill reco'd it--they probably own a bunch and want to dump it at higher prices on the hoi polloi! Don't get snookered! Buy VENGOLD ( VENGF ) instead--just upped their ownership in Lihir to 19% and now own the largest block of Lihir! They will soon control it! Check it out at their website Wiedersehen!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:28 - ID#19870)
BTW -- Allen (USA)
Did you ever find intraday charts? If not, try:

You can pick off the symbol you need from:

FastQuote gets you 1-minute, 5-minute, daily, etc. charts. While the market's open, I just open a new window in Netscape and keep it set on the chart, reload every so often for an update.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:29 - ID#431263)
DOWSOAR +60 is now DOWDUMP -85! Heh..heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:33 - ID#373284)
chas, Namaste' I luv ya buddy...but sheesh...what a choice of words!!!
Gulp at ya...excellent Patron tequila don't ya know...

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:34 - ID#28586)
A moment of silence for the PPT, please...
Sic PPT transit glorae.

good riddance!

Altogether now: "...buddy can you spare a dime..."

Spud, cry "Havoc!" and let loose the raptors of precious metals.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:39 - ID#431263)
TICK -1115!
DOWDUMP NOW -104! Guess we don't have to worry about the DOW 10K Bug THIS year!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:40 - ID#147201)
- 90+ Feces all over the place. Tick just now - 1200+

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:44 - ID#288186)
This is a switch. S&P500 is down significantly with the DOW, but Silver &
Gold are up. July Silver @ 5.41 Dec Gold @ 290.60 Sept S&P500 @ 1105.50

T-Bonds are doing better now as well. Money flowing back to this
perceived safety vehicle? Other money flowing into Metals? Or is this
just short covering? Hmmmm...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:44 - ID#219363)
That was a pretty good spike downward, -80.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:44 - ID#254269)
Media is pathetic (and useless)........... hey tolly man, I agree with you.......
They seem to be totally unable to accept complicated concepts and debate. Was watching one of those Sunday shows and could not believe how stupid and "wishy- washy " some of their questions were. They suffer from what I call "muddled thinking " And, their ethics are pitiful. First rule of ethics for all of these people should be that they stop going to cocktail parties with the politicians they are assigned to "cover".

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:45 - ID#431263)
Got a yuck outa' my liberal stock broker yesterday--couldn't figure out how the Dow could be plunging headlong to oblivion with interest rates so low and so stable and so much moolah pourin' in every day! Told him it must be a right wing conspiracy to get his boy BC outa' office! Heh...heh...heh! He agreed with me! Gott im Himmel those liberals are stupid!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:52 - ID#431263)
And THAT was a pretty good spike UPWARD-- DOWN 115! Heh...heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:53 - ID#147201)
Here we go again. Dow down 102 and tick 1241 -

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:55 - ID#431263)
DOWDUMP is but a mere sideshow compared to the DEVASTATION goin' on the broad general market! Heh..heh..heh!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:56 - ID#347267)
Rule 80-A
Just accessed C. Schwab acct; saw this message:
With a market downturn, NYSE Rule 80-A, the "Stop-Ban" rule, may take effect. If it does, it will have the following impact:

-- Retail brokerage customers may place new Stop and Stop Limit orders ONLY for 2,099 shares or less.

-- Non-retail brokerage customers ( non-individuals ) such as Institutional Brokerage or Financial Advisor customers, may not place ANY new stop or stop limit orders.

Rule 80-A will take effect if the S&P 500 ( SPX ) futures drop 12 points. This corresponds to a 70-90 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials. Once in effect, the restriction will be in place for the rest of the trading day. Exception: if the drop occurs during the last 35 minutes of the trading day, Rule 80-A will NOT take effect.
Just wanted to alert anyone who might need to know--

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:57 - ID#147201)
Cheesehead re DOW
I'm going to let you have it. Yours are out quicker than mine. Thanx

(Tue Aug 04 1998 11:58 - ID#431263)
BRK.A now again below $70,000/share! Poor WB! Hope he ain't dumped ALL his silver and zeros yet! Heh...heh...heh! DOWDUMP -135!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:01 - ID#147201)
Anybody know what the highest neg tick is ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:03 - ID#431263)
CCI DOWN 5! MOney center banks gettin' clobbered! DOWDUMP -150! COULD HAVE A PANIC BEFORE THE CLOSE!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:04 - ID#427357)
AUGUST August Gold

An interesting day. The US Dollar Index plummeted 1.74%, penetrating
downside its 50 Day Moving Average. On the reverse side of the coin
Gold is UP $3.10.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:04 - ID#258427)
in the last 52 weeks...but I have seen more than that!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:05 - ID#431263)
AUgust is THE MONTH FOR GOLD! At least THIS year!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:07 - ID#19870)
Russian PGM Deal Reached, et al.

Gold up in Europe, palladium off on Russia sales talk
11:19 a.m. Aug 04, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, Aug 4 ( Reuters ) - Gold traded higher in Europe on Tuesday
afternoon but slipped after the yen weakened, dealers said.

Gold was last quoted at $285.40/$285.90 an ounce against the previous New
York close at $283.60/$284.10. It fixed higher in London in the afternoon at
$286.10 against the morning fix at $285.70.

Dealers said gold remained rangebound after moving higher on the back of a
stronger yen but dropped below $286.00 in the afternoon after the yen
weakened slightly to hover around 145 yen to the dollar.

``Gold looks like it wants to try a little bit higher. It dipped slightly on the yen
coming off,'' one dealer said.

He said gold was likely to try higher towards the $288.00 level.

Another dealer said gold was unlikely to aim lower.

``It seems to be quite well supported around here and not going much lower.
Maybe we can see $288.00/$289.00 in the next couple of days,'' she said.

In Australia, a senior official of the world's largest gold miner, South Africa's
Anglogold Ltd ( ANGJ.J ) , said gold was at a low and would stay at this level,
although he added it would not surprise him if gold slipped to $250 an

Ian Cockerill, Anglogold's executive officer of business development, told
Reuters that the threat of further dumping of gold by leading central banks --
currently hoarding enough gold to supply world demand for more than
decade -- and complacency over inflation were hitting the price.

But he said some upside potential also existed for bullion.

``Clearly the traditional investor in gold has been a very contrarian investor,
somebody who believes inflation is around the corner and who wants a
hedge for wealth and believes gold is a good insurance policy,'' he said.

Cockerill added that Kitco posters especially were not to be construed as the normal investor. "Those guys are loony over metals. Gold up, gold down, it doesn't matter. They just keep holding and looking for $30,000 pog."

While Cockerill felt the children's pog fad was years ago rendered passe, he conceded the volatility of the collectibles market perhaps held potential. "I mean hey," he said, "Look at the Beenie Baby Index. There's profits there both long and short. Just ask my wife."

Cockerill's wife, however, was unavailable for comment, immersed as she was in scrolling Kitco posts.

Silver was last quoted at $5.38/$5.41 an ounce from the previous close at
$5.35/$5.38 after coming off the day's highs around $5.42 an ounce.

Palladium was down $12 and last quoted at $288.00/$298.00 after coming
under pressure from selling out of Switzerland. Some dealers said there was
also market talk of Russian producer selling.

Traders at Japanese trading firms and bullion houses said on Tuesday they
had reached agreements with Russia on platinum group metal ( PGM ) supply
contracts for the rest of 1998.

The deals with Russia's PGM export agent Almazjuvelirexport ( Almaz ) pave
the way for the resumption of regular Russian exports of the metals to Japan
in September, they said.

The two sides have been negotiating the contracts since Almaz offered two
weeks ago to sell PGMs for August-December shipments at premiums over
the London fix.

The new agreement was made more than seven months after the previous
PGM supply contracts between Almaz and its Japanese customers expired
last December.

Platinum was last quoted at $374.00/$376.00 an ounce from the previous
New York close at $372.00/$374.00.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:08 - ID#350179)
Tol1 - is this the gulp?

XAU up 1.7%
DOW dn 1.5%

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:09 - ID#147201)
Thanx Bill. That's good enough. Where is the 290 gold coming from? I get 285+ for GCS8!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:09 - ID#431263)
Now predicting a 15-20% CORRECTION in the DOW. 7400-7800!! Heh..heh..heh!
Even MR. DOW 12,000 gettin' his gonads GORED! Heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:10 - ID#246224)
Just a foray into the unknown & unknowable ( except to HEPCAT, our cute little spat-ster ) . Yes I have the charts, thanks. I'd like to see the pop you are hoping for. Will try to ride this escalator up and cycle through the downs. Have alot of gold red to fill in with the silver black marks. Here's to all those cowboys and cowgirls who will ride this bronco into some profit ( and take their rest when it is appropriate ) .

I am encouraged by gogold's recent comments. Really would like to know where he gets his stuff. Probably just smarter and more disciplined than anyone else I ever heard about ( no disrespect intended to all the intelligencia here abouts ) . Possibly his mania has a certain synchronicity with the markets, in which case he IS the ultimate indicator ( until the markets transmorgify into some other state of neural operation ) .

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:13 - ID#206358)
Permanent tax cut pledge under review

The party's tax commission is expected to discuss today a possible delay of tax reform
until the economy has improved.

Asahi Shimbun

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will review Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's promise of
permanent tax cuts today, saying lasting tax reform must wait until the current economic slump
is over, party sources said Monday.

In a move that would question Obuchi's earlier pledge to introduce 6 trillion yen in permanent
tax cuts--including 4 trillion yen in income tax reductions--immediately, Finance Minister Kiichi
Miyazawa and leading members of the LDP's Tax System Research Commission are
discussing the cuts on a temporary basis.

The LDP members have suggested waiting until the economy has stabilized.

The commission was to suggest postponing any meaningful reform of the tax system, which
would include the income and industrial tax cuts, when it meets today, the sources said.

The sources said the commission's reason for the postponement was that tax system reform
would be too disruptive in the current delicate economic circumstances and could backfire.

For instance, any discussion of lowering the minimum taxable income level--one of the
proposals being considered in the reform of the tax system--could discourage spending and
inspire resentment on the part of lower income consumers, they said.

Instead of permanent cuts, they are now considering introducing 4 trillion yen in temporary
income tax cuts based on a fixed-rate system, which would determine the amount of cuts a
person is eligible for based on their income, the sources said.

Advocates of the fixed-rate system said they believe the measure is more effective than the
fixed-amount system--tax cuts not based on income--for spurring the economy because it
would encourage higher-income earners to spend more. The fixed amount system was the
method used to implement tax cuts this year.

Obuchi had promised 6 trillion yen in "permanent tax cuts" as part of his leadership campaign
pledge. Obuchi's permanent cuts would require an across-the-board review of the tax system.

The prime minister has said the tax system must be revised so that it would function in line with
the international standard.

Some senior LDP members are responding negatively to postponing the permanent tax cuts.

"I would say we should stick to Obuchi's earlier pledge. The thing is to reform the nation's tax
system so that it would be based on the international standard, " said Secretary-General
Yoshiro Mori.

Another leading LDP member also said some review of the progressive tax system is possible
now to make the 6 trillion yen tax cuts a reality.

Other party members expressed their concern that a failure to swiftly implement drastic tax
system reform may disappoint the United States as well as international financial markets.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:15 - ID#219363)
I predict the DOW will turn around at 3pm today and reach for new highs, probably close to 10000. The internet stocks are going to reverse their downward trend. Gold will drop off as the CB's begin a massive selling effort to move into a soon to be soaring higher dollar.

Oh, wait, no I don't.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:16 - ID#431263)
GCZ NOW 291.10!!
Stick THAT in your $250 gold pipe IAN COCKEYDRILL! Just dumped all my ANGLOGOLD STOCK for your impertinent comments about Kitco posters! But your wife can read and post here anytime she wants! Heh..heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:16 - ID#212197)
DOW falling sharply these minutes: right now down -102
If it continues like that we'll have a little crash this afternoon.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:20 - ID#212197)
DOW (n) -134
at 12:25

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:22 - ID#224363)
@Jonesy...I had a good chuckle
Joneys...Thanks for the laugh

Cockerill added that Kitco posters especially were not to be construed as the normal investor. "Those guys are loony over metals. Gold up, gold down, it doesn't matter. They just keep holding and looking for $30,000 pog."

While Cockerill felt the children's pog fad was years ago rendered passe, he conceded the volatility of the collectibles market perhaps held potential. "I mean hey," he said, "Look at the Beenie Baby Index. There's profits there both long and short. Just ask my wife."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:22 - ID#365216)
hope tolerant1 is right about Clintler
I sincerely hope that we can close the books on Clinton
( ie Clintler ) by impeachment or resignation before he has
a chance to issue Executive Orders for some trumped-up
( drug war, terrorism, etc ) or real ( Y2K ) disaster or
emergency which would require "extraordinary government
intervention measures" ( translate dictatorial powers ) .

A caged beast is at its fiercest when it knows it has no where to
go. It is really a toss-up as to whether he has it in him to
resign. We'll see.

Go God, gold, guns, grub, and girls ( in that order ) .

That is all.

Gusto Oro
(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:24 - ID#377235)
Season's Greetings

It's beginning to look a lot like impeachment
Everywhere you grope;
Take that dress from the five-and-ten and testing it once again
For DNA, Bill had his way--the dope.

It's beginning to look a lot like Impeachment,
President Al Gore.
But the prettiest sight to see is how melancholy Dems will be.
When Bill's shown the front door.

More press's scathing Starr mocks and a Congress that balks
Is the wish of Joseph Biden.
Dolls that will talk and will go for a walk
Is the hope of Linda and Ken.
And Orin Hatch can hardly wait for hearings to begin.

It's beginning to look a lot like impeachment
Everywhere you go;
A dead friend in the Bosnia hell, one in the park as well,
Hints scandals that the public doesn't know.

It's beginning to look a lot like impeachment;
Soon the bells will start,
And the thing that will make them toll is when Slick Will admits his role,
His whole sordid part.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:25 - ID#252127)
Golden Cheesehead

Looks like Vengold took on some heavy short term debt to bring their Lihir interests up to 19%. Do you think that PDG will take Vengold out? Or will they swap their Lihir interest for a PDG property or cash? Whats your take?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:26 - ID#431263)
Now why did you have to go and mess up my favorite Christmas melody! Will never sing that song again! Please don't wreck any more of my favorite meoldies, Christmas or otherwise! Thanks for nothing! : )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:27 - ID#258427)
Doesn't look like any PPT activity yet...
The SnP's are tracking the dow...down...PPT can't buy the whole SnP ( or can they? )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:27 - ID#212197)
DOW in free fall right now
DOW = 8635/ -151 at 12:31

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:28 - ID#207145)
Profits have to line up with stock prices
Dow 5717. Low intrest rates are being ignored. They don't count right now.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:29 - ID#207145)
ARMS Index
Is still a bit overbought!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:30 - ID#431263)
Don't know the answer to that one! Whatever happens--VENGOLD got it right and those who own it will PROSPER! Kudos to PDG for recopgnizing a good thing when they see one! DOWDUMP NOW -170!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:31 - ID#368244)
Spot Gold
Spot gold down, Dec. up $3.30, whats going on?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:31 - ID#207145)
Dow down 169
Holy cow. 3 more months of this and I'll be a buyer.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:32 - ID#207145)
Sale over in late October.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:33 - ID#373284)
Namaste' agreement...MM...mea culpa, responsible for at
least 300M gallons myself although I prefer Cuervo and Patron, GENERAL, I have no problem with the first, but can the next in the list be interchangeable ( spelling ) as need dictates?

And a huge gulp to the three of ya... off to the village to retrieve the medallion...whoa buddy.......yEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Viva Gold!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:33 - ID#317193)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:34 - ID#207145)
This is healthy for DDow
Unless you'r invested. Let er RIP.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:34 - ID#317193)
spot is up $3.40

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:35 - ID#182184)
Mr. Predicting the Future - Y2K Issues
Agree with your post regarding the POG, but a few differences.

Y2K failures will surface earlier in 1999. Examples: Universities, local School Boards, and county governments frequently begin their financial years in the summer. The smaller government organizations ( and corporations ) are going to be the hit the hardest. There isn't enough money for the big consulting companies like EDS and Anderson to come in and fix/upgrade their systems.

The US government will have two types of problems:
. 1. Repairing their own systems. EVERYONE that I know in the IRS says that their systems are SEVERAL YEARS away from being Y2K compliant.
. 2. Bailing-out everyone else. When a bank can't tell you exactly how much money is in your account, what does the FDIC do? Should they give you a check for what YOU say is the balance in your account? ( Most of the systems folks in the banking industry are busy with merger/acquisition issues rather than Y2K issues. )

Will people panic if only 10 banks crash? 20? 100? Most will be okay, but I am CERTAIN that SOME WILL FAIL!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:35 - ID#19870)
"I am not schitzoid," says gold exec's wife

REUTERS -- The wife of Ian Cockerill, Anglogold's executive officer of business development, preferring not to disclose her first name, vehemently denied allegations of schitzophrenic behavior.

Mrs. Cockerill has apparently been posting messages at the Kitco Internet Gold Discussion Groups under various handles, Reuters learned today. Her aliases include, but are by no means limited to, "RJ," "Hep Cat," "Gogold" and "F-something" ( which this reporter was unable to pronounce ) .

Mrs. Cockerill was chewing cheese and blocking the view of her screen from this reporter. "Get away, you turkbutt," she said, slamming down the cap lock key. "I am not schizophrenic!" she shouted, "And I will sue anyone who says so."

"And so will I," she added, waving her hand in dismissal. "Me too."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:35 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:37 - ID#348286)
@Hope it lasts
Nice to see DOW down and Gold actually going UP!
THe eventual breakout in Gold will require this inverse movement.
By most peoples measures, DOW overvalued, Gold the reverse......

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:37 - ID#246224)
To the Golden Cheese Megaphone
Your CAPS LOCK is reset. Please engage. TIA

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:37 - ID#431263)
DEC. GOLD @ $291.90! UP $4.00!!
GOGOLD--How's about one day of $4.00 instead of two days of $2.00? Does this count? Heh.heh.heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:38 - ID#219363)
So now I'm all armed with this new dangerous information MJPL gave me last nite re: PUTs and CALLs and I wanna try to figure it out in real life. Somebody tell me if this is right-

The DOW dropped a bunch and the guy on the TV said that there were suddenly a bunch of PUT options on the market. The way MJPL explained it ( as I understood it ) , that means that a bunch of people out there are making a guarantee to buy stock at a certain level. So, maybe a trader is guessing the market will go back up, so he sells a PUT for some stock at 100 bucks, assuming the stock will go up above that level, and he gets a deal because he makes money on "negative vibes" basically. But if the market tanks, he's really hurting now because he's agreed to purchase a bunch of stock at 100 bucks, stock that may now only be 50 bucks on the market, and he has to cover all that.

So when someone says there are a lot of PUTs when the market drops like it just did, they're saying that the traders out there are pretty well convinced that the market is going to go back up, right ?

If that's true, I hope for their sake the market doesn't tank this afternoon. Of course, it does sound kinda like gambling, so I guess you have to expect to lose a bunch of money sometimes.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:38 - ID#340344)
(Predicting the future)
Thank you very much for your post. Not only well thought out and polished, but also of broad nature and *reasonable*. This is the
kind of post that:

I don't have to know any *jargon* to understand, and that

I can show to my friends for their consideration, without them looking
back at me with a sanity-questioning furled brow.

Thank you, thank you.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:40 - ID#286230)
Nickel Prices
Anyone got a URL for a site that provides Nickel price spot and/or historical?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:40 - ID#317193)
K-2...can't post there..BK .is it me?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:41 - ID#25257)
Joe Battapaglia
The DOW and the NASDAQ in a freefall. Joe Battapaglia where are you?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:41 - ID#431263)
DOWDUMP -200!!
Anybody know when thos etradin' curbs kick in? Heh..heh..heh!Is it 250 or 500? Heh..heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:43 - ID#258427)
Chas...negative tic -1755...tied
the 52 week record...more to come??

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:43 - ID#28586)
Like Hitler ordering the flooding of the Berlin subways in the final days...
Bill has ordered the PPT to let the DOW die. A glorious pyre for his failed, venal ambitions of total power. We have sowed the wind, now comes the reaping. You can almost see him sequestered in his office, isolated, alone, dreaming of non-existent legions of lawyers to blunt the final Ken Starr impeachment attack:

"I'll teach those ^@#*!!#!$* American baby-boomers what it means to
f**k with the Arkansas Boyz. Oh yea, I feel your incinerating stock market retirement pain, baby-boomers! Y'all still got a chance to be "team players" and call this silly little ole investigator Ken Starr off ... opps, there goes another $100 billion of stock value, betta not wait, jes ring him right up. See y'all now"


(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:43 - ID#207145)
Joe Battapaglia
Is hiding in the john. Get outta that stall. Squattin on a toilet. I SEE YOU.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:43 - ID#431263)
Ain't BC and the PPT gonna' step in and save us from ourselves? Heh..heh..heh! Must of got a restraining order from Ken Starr! Heh.heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:44 - ID#246224)
Didn't somebody, just this morning, post a pc that DOW and Gold ..
were joined at the hip here: up is up and down is down. Well, it certainly doesn't look that way today. Go Gold!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:45 - ID#431263)
Now clobbering the NASDAQ! NASDOWN 50! Now THAT'S SERIOUS STUFF!!! Heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:46 - ID#266105)
climax blues band

Is this the selling climax for the Snp or just foreplay.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:47 - ID#246224)
GCH please
put your CAPS LOCK "ON" NOW. Let's get some excitement going around here!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:48 - ID#431263)
But the decline is so ORDERLY!! Heh..heh..heh! NASDOWN 53!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:49 - ID#368244)
@ cheezo
May be some of that dow money is finding a new home.

Monkee Person
(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:50 - ID#288105)
There it goes, boys!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:50 - ID#431263)
CNBC just reported that THE DOW IS ONLY UP SINGLE DIGITS ON THE YEAR!! heh..heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:52 - ID#350179)
Lets see if the 13:00 computer buy programs kick in...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:53 - ID#431263)
He told me I could never lose money on an internet stock! Heh..heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 12:54 - ID#431263)
He told me I could never lose money on an internet stock! Heh..heh...heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:00 - ID#431263)
BC IS DEFINITELY GOIN' DOWN! Heh..heh! Herr Spud speak the truth!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:00 - ID#298259)
We got us some volume...
NEM = 1.75 mil
BGO = 470,000
CAU = 520,000 ( at 3/8 yuck )
DAY = 187,000
BMG = 469,000
ECO = 1.032 mil
TVX = 362,000
PDG = 514,000

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:01 - ID#229207)
The hog is in the tunnel -- has been since April, but only now does the ave. mutual fund mgr notice
Wall St pares losses at midday, weak yen
By Jennifer Westhoven

NEW YORK, Aug 4 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks staggered lower at
midday on Tuesday as a particularly heavy bout of selling took
its toll on stocks.

The Dow industrials were off 136 points or 1.54 percent to
8650 at midday. A 70-point opening rally, ignited by stability
in overseas markets, quickly disappeared as sellers emerged.

"The complete inability of the market to hold on to these
early gains is very, very disturbing," said Donald Selkin,
chief investment strategist at Joseph Gunnar & Co, noting this
morning's pattern has been a common one in recent sessions.

Market analysts pointed at continuing fears about Asia's
economic crisis, U.S. corporate profits and bearish comments by
influential Prudential analyst Ralph Acampora.

Market breadth was "a disaster show," said Selkin. There
were three times more declining stocks than advancing stocks on
the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 2107 to 691 on
volume of 381.0 million.

"We're probably headed for a ten percent correction before
we stabilize," said Selkin. A ten percent drop from the Dow's
July high closing level of 9337.97 would take the 30-stock
average to roughly 8,400 points.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:03 - ID#320202)
and don't forget Viceroy VOY/ TSE Volume 1'224.000 !!

he ho, away we go


(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:04 - ID#427357)
DOW 8300 BY AUGUST 21st??? -- DOW DOWN MORE THAN 200

Analyst George Ure MADE this audacious prediction
more than 600 DOW points ago!

Specifically, he forecasted that the DOW will plummet to
the 8300 area WITHIN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS.

DOW is now DOWN 200 points to 8586 as I speak and FALLING
( BTW Gold is UP MORE THAN 4 bucks )


The basis of his dramatic forecast is a Chart correlation between two periods: 1920 to 1929 and 1988 to 1998. Mr. Ure doesn't mince words. He flatly states: "Bull Market Dead!"

Whether you agree or not, his report is thought-provoking - and therefore should be read by prudent investors.

"REPLAYING 1929 4 WEEKS TO 8300" may be seen at the URL below. It
will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:05 - ID#431263)
DUMP!!! GOLD UP $5.00!!!!!!!! $292.70 ON DEC!!!!! GOLD BOTTOM!!!! DOW TOP!!!! GOLD BOTTTTOM!! DOW TOP!!!!! GOLD BOTTTTOMM!! DOW TOP!!!!! GOLD BOTTOMMM! Sorry, guys, got a little too excited there for a moment!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:06 - ID#254269)
tolly man; Mea Culpa.'s WSJ has a real interesting editorial
recommending that WJC accept Orrin Hatch's offer of a Mea Culpa. It is written in a very satirical style and the WSJ suggest that WJC also admit to all of the other accusations. Real interesting satire.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:07 - ID#19870)
Major Market Indexes
Everything's red . . . except the XAU.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:10 - ID#431263)
Give old George Ure a golden cigar will ya'? But with all due repsect to Herr George, 8300 is hardly an AUDACIOUS prediction in light of the fact that it's less than a simple 10% correction!!! Why don't you and George TRY ON RALPH ACAMPORA'S AUDACIOUS PREDICTION OF 7400 ON FOR SIZE? Or HERR BLOOPER-SCOOPER'S AUDACIOUS PREDICTION OF 5700 BY OCTOBER? NOW THAT'S AUDACIOUS!!!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:11 - ID#390415)
@predicting the future
The scenario you have articulated so well is precisely the one I am betting on.

Gold up $4 - Retirement date just moved up two months! Go Gold!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:12 - ID#19870)
@ Gollum, re. Silver
Where are ya, pal? Stuck in the basement? Very well. Carry on.

Silver bouncing off resistence at 545. If she breaks through, this could be a gusher of a day. Another hour left to play.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:13 - ID#19870)
@ NightWriter
Rooting for your retirement next week.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:14 - ID#431263)
GCZ @ $292.90!
TO HE-- WITH THE DOW! Heh..heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:14 - ID#246224)
Glassman article from last Sunday's paper
Average NYSE issue had dropped 24% from 52 week high. Average $250 million or less capitalization stock have lost 47% from 52 week high. This after last week's numbers.

Looks like the indices are following the leadership of the rest of the market .. DOWN. 10% correction? I say we slide down till mid September and then we see *real* losses on the order of 25% or more. This past year's bad news has been filtering into the markets from the bottom up and the train is but now leaving the station. Momentum works both ways. Bad news will follow bad news until people jump from the burning wreck that it truly is. This is preemptive selling. Things will not go full swing until summer vacations are over in early September.

-------- Also check this out NY TIMES AUGUST 2nd

August 2, 1998
The Millennium Bug Looms

Fear of chaos in the world's computer systems in the year 2000 may be hard for most people to take seriously. The temptation is to assume that since technicians created the problem, technicians can solve it. But with only 516 days until the fateful turnover, it is clear that the United States is not moving fast enough to fix its computers or prepare for significant disruptions. Instead of addressing a potential crisis, many leaders in business and government are complacent, declining to act for fear of lawsuits or engaging in political fights. Their lack of ttention could be crippling.

The so-called millennium bug arises from chips and software coded to mark the years with only two digits. If not adjusted by Jan. 1, 2000, myriad systems will "roll over like the odometer on an old Chevy," as Wired magazine put it, effectively thinking they had just jumped back to the year 1900. No one is sure what will happen. The breakdowns could be minor, or they could disable everything from air traffic control systems to financial networks, power grids, hospitals and home appliances. Some economists warn of a global recession.

[*!] It makes sense to prepare for the worst. The Federal Government has made progress but is far behind in upgrading air traffic systems, Medicare, the Pentagon and other sectors. In addition, a petty budget dispute between the House and Senate has blocked $3 billion in emergency funds to speed up the process. A major problem is that even if the Federal Government is in perfect shape, its systems could become impaired by interacting with state and local governments, where potential problems are rampant. Similarly, big businesses could fix their own systems only to have them break down by contact with noncompliant customers, clients and suppliers at home and overseas. The Securities and Exchange Commission is actively monitoring efforts to root out problems throughout the financial industry, but much more needs to be done.

President Clinton has belatedly stepped up the Federal campaign to increase public awareness by establishing a Council on Year 2000 Conversion, but he and Al Gore, the First Technophile, should do even more. They and sympathetic members of Congress should win passage of
legislation to encourage companies to share information with one another, disclose problems to the public and move more aggressively to correct them. At present, many businesses are afraid to act out of fear that any corrective efforts that fell short would simply invite lawsuits charging that they knew their systems were flawed.

If the millennium bug problem were simply a matter of software, it would be bad enough. But experts say the most dangerous aspect of the problem is that so many systems -- from missiles to natural-gas pipelines to hospital equipment -- rely on billions of tiny chips embedded where they would have to be found by engineers and reprogrammed or replaced.
Congress should consider tax incentives or subsidies to encourage usinesses to identify vulnerabilities and recruit professionals, including retired people.

It may well be that all these problems can be managed. But experts recommend that employees ask their bosses about what is being done to get ready. If the answer is that there is nothing to worry about, it is time to start worrying. It will cost billions to fix potential problems. But that is nothing compared to what it will cost if the fears of many experts prove correct.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:14 - ID#24864)
Selby/Good Metal Charts from the LME
Good Morning to all the upovers. I see you have AU up $5.
All in Kalgoorlie will be very pleased in the morning.
Selby, Metal charts can be found at:
You may like to bookmark this one. JohnC at Sunny Brisbane.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:16 - ID#19870)
re. Major Market Indexes
Equities continuing down. XAU rising.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:18 - ID#212197)
DOW = 8573; -213 @13:19
Chances are we get our little crash today.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:20 - ID#31876)
"If the President is innocent, he should give some other speech."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:22 - ID#229207)
Pru's Acampora - Dow may be headed for 20 pct
NEW YORK, Aug 4 ( Reuters ) - The blue chip Dow Jones
Industrial Average could be on course for a 15-20 percent
pullback from recent record highs, Prudential Securities
director of technical research Ralph Acampora said Tuesday.

Acampora said he would no longer characterize the market's
downturn as a "stealth decline" whereby stocks fall across the
board but blue chips fall less.

"The implications are the Dow will eventually go lower and
take out its June 1998 low," Acampora said. "If we close below
that, then...the Dow could drop 15-20 percent from its 1998
closing high."

The Dow later fell below its June intra-day low of 8569.88
to 8562.23, the lowest level in almost five months.

The lowest close for the month was on June 15 at 8627.93.
The Dow hit a closing high of 9337.97 on July 17.

Acampora said a 15 percent decline from that high would
bring the Dow to 7937 while a 20 percent fall, his most extreme
scenario, would take blue chips to 7470.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:24 - ID#254269)
IMF Funding "premature" says Dick Armey

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:26 - ID#219363)
It's good to see gold up, DOW down - bugs were really testy yesterday and not any fun at all to be around. *grin*. Gold down on Yen, Gold down on DOW, Gold down on CPI, Gold down on Oil, heck, it was hard to see what Gold might be UP on. *smile*.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:27 - ID#229207)
The shorts smell blood, they're plugging a sell-off
and they're getting one. Might overshoot their target, tho.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:28 - ID#252127)

Well run Vengold's taking on large ST debt to increase its interest in Lihir could be a signal that gold is ready to make a very major move.
Also Viceroy Resource a mid range producer with good credentials has been very active the past few sessions.
Anyone with the inside scoop. please post.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:30 - ID#347267)
Rundown of my favorites:
Note the red by the mutual funds is YESTERDAY's -- Tomorry's will be BETTER!! Kinross up 13% today!!!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:30 - ID#347267)
Rundown of my favorites:
Note the red by the mutual funds is YESTERDAY's -- Tomorry's will be BETTER!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:35 - ID#219363)
Is the DOW getting set up for a big sell later this afternoon, or is it actually moving back toward the plus ? Enquiring minds wanna know.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:36 - ID#219363)
Is the DOW getting set up for a big sell later this afternoon, or is it actually moving back toward the plus ? Enquiring minds wanna know.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:40 - ID#182184)
Y2K - Thoughts for Today
Most of you "normal" people ( normal = not a computer person ) are probably sick of reading about Y2K issues. But here are two simple thoughts for today:

- The same reason that causes people not to worry, will cause them to panic: THEY DON[T UNDERSTAND THE TECHNOLOGY.

- There are many of us systems folks looking for investments ( such as gold ) that will do well in the forthcoming Y2K economic crisis. We're putting our money where our mouth is. Wouldn't you be concerned if you saw the pilot of your plane wearing a parachute?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:41 - ID#222231)
Will someone please tell me who this is?
Could it be part of the PPT?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:41 - ID#431263)
Don't know if Vengold management is THAT smart to call the bottom in gold, but I DO KNOW they are smart enough to go after one of the BIGGEST and CHEAPEST GOLD PLAYS IN THE WORLD!! LIHIR!! It has been their intention all along to take over this GOLD ELEPHANT and they are well on the way to doin' so!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:42 - ID#431263)
Don't know if Vengold management is THAT smart to call the bottom in gold, but I DO KNOW they are smart enough to go after one of the BIGGEST and CHEAPEST GOLD PLAYS IN THE WORLD!! LIHIR!! It has been their intention all along to take over this GOLD ELEPHANT and they are well on the way to doin' so!!

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:42 - ID#225408)
R. Dornbusch anyone?

As far as I am concerned Rudy Dornbusch's name can be taken off the list of possible candidates for the identity of ANOTHER. See:

for a really good laugh!

The more things change the more they stay the same. Shades of 1929 and Deja vu all over again!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:44 - ID#288369)
@NO PROBLEMO!!!.......Us equity boys and girls are ALL....
LONG TERM INVESTORS......with the possible exception of a few hundred thousand "investors" who play with bank-borrowed money,and....the five hundred thousand or so "investors" who bought on margin........and possibly the million "investors" who have next month's rent money in safe keeping at the Nasdaq. Yes, Molly and Bruce Equity are scared shatless...I must assure you. And, at the dinner table tonight, the look on their faces will resemble that of a couple of pups trying to pass peach pits.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:44 - ID#222231)
Will someone please tell me who this is?
Could it be part of the PPT? ML eating to excess? A Dow investor? Please tell me.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:44 - ID#298380)
Question for Cheesehead
Why do you want the markets to crash ?
If it happens it will be devastating for
all of us. You included.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:49 - ID#29048)
Echo Bay news

They delisted on one exchange.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:52 - ID#347235)
All, F*,Pierre
ll, Let be a little nicer and watch F* for a while, if he behaves himself he should be made welcome, if not..... His worst attacks were on me personally, he has apologised to me and I have accepted it.

F* Hang in there and be nicer than before you should have no problem.

Pierre, Good to see you again, my cousin Le Neek Rouge was lost without his buddy. Welcome back, where is Swamp Boy?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:52 - ID#219363)
"Remoras. Vacuum cleaners. The stock market. The category? Things that suck."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:54 - ID#266105)
bread and circuses

' why have two-thirds of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange fallen below their 200-day moving averages? '

It was just last year that formerly staid NYSE Chairman Richard Grasso turned heads with a Holstein calf on the exchange floor for Gateway 2000.

What's next? Possibly a lion on Wednesday morning for the listing of
Anglogold of South Africa. The idea is to have the 8-foot-long beast prowl the balcony with Grasso at the opening. But a publicist confides that there's a chance they won't be given a permit.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:56 - ID#431263)
I'M SHORT!! Heh..heh..heh! Only people gonna' get hurt by a Dow crash are those who failed to heed all the warning signs posted here at Kitco for the last 12 months or longer! Gott im Himmel, Mensch! Why do you think Noah spent so many months building his ark? For the fun of it? Some people just refuse to face reality UNTIL IT'S TOO LATE!!!! Don't you be one of 'em!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:58 - ID#431263)
Like deer standin' in the middle of the freeway, they're frozen stiff! STILL NO SIGNS OF CAPITULATION!! THIS PIG IS RIPE FOR SLAUGHTER!!!

Gandalf the White
(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:58 - ID#433298)
Pete (13:44) Photo
That is the first of the "fat cat" Short Gold jumpers !

(Tue Aug 04 1998 13:59 - ID#288186)
Studio.r; ROL on that last post. At the same time I thought..."this is sad that
so many have this "invest for the long term" mentality thats been
drilled into their heads by all these Wall Street buttheads. I'm
amazed how many people I know that have complacency about the events
surrounding us. We can only hope and pray for our futures... ( some
pun intended ) Fox-Man

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:00 - ID#347235)
Looks like my ex-wifes momma

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:01 - ID#288369)
Looks like my personal trainer, Wally, who I finally had to cut loose.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:01 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:02 - ID#147201)
Looks like the PPT has given up!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:03 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:03 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:06 - ID#20167)
Witness intimidation?
Check out Carl Limbachers' Washington Weekly column titled

Matt Drudge also reporting similar thing involving Linda Tripp

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:07 - ID#254269)
a refugee from the X-Files ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:08 - ID#288369)
Yessir, it's damn unfortunate....all kidding aside. A nightmare come true. Hope your group is okay. salud!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:10 - ID#354133)
Jes funnin'
One day, at the end of Kitco etiquette class, little Farfel's teacher, Bart, has the class go home and think of a story to tell, and then conclude the moral of that story. The following day when the teacher asks for the first volunteer to tell their story, little Jin raises her hand. "My dad owns a farm and every Sunday we load the chicken eggs on the truck and drive into town to sell them at the market. Well, one Sunday we hit a big bump and all the eggs flew out of the basket and onto the road." The teacher asks for the moral of the story. Jin replies, "Don't keep all your eggs in one basket."

Next is little Blooper. "Well my dad owns a farm too and every weekend we
take the chicken eggs and put them in the incubator. Last weekend only
8 of the 12 eggs hatched." The teacher asks for the moral of the story.
Blooper replies, "Don't count your chickens before they're hatched."

Last is little Farfel. "My buddy RJ fought in the Desert Storm war; his plane was shot down over enemy territory. He jumped out before it crashed with only a bottle of tequila, a machine gun and a machete. On the way down he drank the bottle of tequila. Unfortunately, he landed right in the middle of 100 Iraqi soldiers. He shot 70 with his machine gun, but ran out of bullets, so he pulled out his machete and killed 20 more. The blade on his machete broke, so he killed the last ten with his bare hands." Bart looks in shock at Farfel and asks if there is possibly any moral to his story. Farfel replies, "Don't screw with RJ when he's been drinking."

Or maybe vice versa?

Go gold!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:10 - ID#288186)
Whew! What a day so far.... Aug Gold @ 289.50...Sept Silver @ 5.45
Sept S&P500 @ 1090.00

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:10 - ID#350179)
Coming soon (IMHO)
PPT second infusion.
Target: Keep less than under 200 points off on the close...
We shall see - it's getting slippery.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:11 - ID#24135)
My My Hey Hey .. Disneys law is DEAD !
To all
a lot of this lovely action has been weak dollar
rather than strong gold ...but not all. Gold in yen
is now 41,850 .. the most recent prior high was
about 41,800 .
If we really broke it .. things could get exciting ..
at least we get out of the grip of Disney's stupid law..
I hope.
The assumption that the dollar will weaken as the
dow falls was a good one. The nice thing is that PM
seem to hold up OK in the face of a DOW tumble ...
Thats nice so far ..
Whoever that jerk was that dumped 800,000 shares
of drooy on the market yesterday .. paid a price
for doing it..
Gold is also moving up against silver and Platinum..
markets are rarely logical ..

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:11 - ID#35571)
Sorry about the grease

I've been down in the hole all day working with the levers and getting everthing back in order. Some of the cables were messed up. I tied the DOW lever about 3/4 down, the gold lever about 3/4 up and the silver lever about half up with some wier I found down there. That way I didn't have to worry about bumping anyhthing while I filldeled around. It's dark down there.

I just finished a little while ago, pulled the wires off and came bck up here without cleaning up first, and that's why I've got all this grease on my hands. As soon as I check on how things worked out I'll start getting everything ready for the weekend.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:13 - ID#246224)
This is the GCH ..
we all know and love. THANKS FOR THE CAPS!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:13 - ID#35571)
Damn! I forgot about the XAU thingie

I better go back and see where I left it. Be right back.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:13 - ID#401237)
Reno to Speak!

Congress questioning FBI Cheif on Reno and Clinton fund raising. Threat of "Contempt of Congress" being filed against Reno.

Reno to speak in a half hour.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:15 - ID#254269)
Dow down 169 points and 609 milliojn shares traded with one hour 40
minutes to go.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:16 - ID#20167)
Gold bottom
Yesterday marked an important cycle low for gold. It also reflects
an important test of the January low. The continuing criminal revelations about the slick and his cronies should provide fuel to
propell the pms to amazing levels.
My second prediction will be met with disbelief. The yen has bottomed
and the dollar will go to hell from here.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:16 - ID#288369)
@Disney's next law.......
"markets are rarely logical ..."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:17 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Appreciate your work fellow kitcoite! Keep them levels right!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:18 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Appreciate your work fellow kitcoite! Keep them levers right!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:19 - ID#431263)
I'll drink to that! NAMASTE! ( whatever the scheiss that is ) : )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:20 - ID#350179)
May even be able to keep it in only double digits...?
8670 should be a test.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:21 - ID#431263)
Heh..heh..heh....NOT! ( BIIIIG CAPS!!! )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:23 - ID#431263)
Now CNBC is gonna' run a piece on what a bad investment gold has been--so bad that one fund manager is gonna' give back all his investors money!!! Hehh...heh..heh! What will they dream up next?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:24 - ID#431263)
NEW LOWS 485 to 12 piddly new highs!
Is this a BULL or a BEAR? Heh..heh.heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:25 - ID#429341)
APH: Great calls on Silver!
I said it before but YOU THE MAN!! The accuracy of many of your calls gets to be nothing short of breath taking! I have to admit I thought you were laying on the rail tracks by shorting at 5.85...

From a big picture point of view this may be telling us that we are in a strong impulse move in si. Elliot seems to be at its best in very strong markets, particularly strong wave 3 legs - like the dow from 82 to about 87. This is when Precter made his reputation. His calls were almost god like during that time. Of course things have changed a bit since then... : )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:27 - ID#252127)

A hooker down on her luck.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:28 - ID#288369)
@cheeezO.....this is what we warned our buddy EB of.........
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( NEW LOWS 485 to 12 piddly new highs! )

Now, all the money is crowded into the Dow components....and thus they will sink.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:29 - ID#219363)
I'd sure like to be on the trading floor today, I bet it would be fun watching all the action with the big market swings up and down ( well, mostly down ) . Guys screaming BUY, SELL at each other, do'n there little hand signal things, big ole hoards of people descending on each other like armies on the field, a few victorious individuals in the midst of it all, walking away with the treasure of kings, some sitting on the side-lines betting on who will catch an arrow, feel a blade, and a few poor souls who charge left instead of right head-long into a big bear cave, never leaving the field, left in ruin. I bet a lot of traders lose there voices today from yelling so much. What a drama. I'd enjoy being there to see it.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:29 - ID#431263)
Cuz Alan Greenspan told us so! Don't mess with MR. G!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:31 - ID#229207)
The recent pattern has been for the market to drop in the last hour
If the pattern holds, we might get a DOW down 300 today.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:32 - ID#288186)
Envy; I'll betcha many of 'em are holdin' their pottie break on this day!
They have to be showing a little worry on their faces...Fox-Man

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:32 - ID#431263)
Yazzir! I can hear old EB poundin' on the door of THE BIG RED INK ARK ALREADY! Only one problem, THE DOOR IS SEALED SHUT AND WE AIN'T TAKIN' IN NO EB BALLAST! Disney died with Disney's Law! Heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:33 - ID#342376)
I can't believe what main stream will do to keep the price of gold down. Unbelievable! They are doing everything possible to keep the dam from breaking ( especially the Dutch with their continued CB sales of gold! ) but the dam has leaks and is getting worse. I hope it breaks. Manipulations can only work for a time.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:33 - ID#429341)
And Now, the Financial Apocalypse
Great article by J. Orlin Grabbe: " "

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:38 - ID#431263)

JIM AWAD givin' us a wad of scheiss about them small stocks comin' back on CNBC.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:44 - ID#431263)
If we can only get the DOW back below 100 then we've still got an hour to DUMP!! DUMP!! DUMP!!! INTO THE CLOSE!!! Heh..heh..heh!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:47 - ID#373284)
Just walked in the door, no medallion yet!!! Who is this man Evillard dispensing
absolute this a Camdesuss plant...he looks like a weasel to me...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:48 - ID#411259)
..... I was a big buyer of gold today .....

It was all short covering - for tidy profits - but buying is buying, yes?


(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:49 - ID#35571)

Trying to keep DOW around -100 or so, but for day after day. Don't want to encourage crash-dip buying. Just continual selling. More later....

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:51 - ID#431263)
Jean Marie Eveillard ON CNBC--
NOW A GOLD BEAR--A TRUE CONTRARIAN! Wonder how much they paid him to come on and bad mouth his main investment! Says deflation is not in the cards and in any event not good for gold!
Believes that EUROpe is the place to be with a little stab at Asia.

NEXT UP--RALPH ACAMPORA--MR. DOW 10,000 before DOW 8,000!! Heh..heh!
Wonder when they're gonna' have Alice Rivlin and Joe BLOW Battypaglia on?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:54 - ID#288369)
@Jean Marie.........
Did zero fact, he said very lowly, that he might not sell any gold stocks...."he has until the year end to make up his mind." He's a buyer.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:54 - ID#288186)
RJ; So you covered and bought all your Gold shorts back today...Good job.
What's your thoughts for tomorrow, especially if we have another
two dollar up day in Gold? TIA

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:55 - ID#431263)

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:58 - ID#345321)
When is the PPT going to run out of cash to throw at this market?????????
AG and Co can't do this forever. The Dow was -212 and the next minute it was -124. That is the PPT in ACTION!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:58 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:58 - ID#350179)
hmm, subliminal sheeple alert?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 14:58 - ID#288369)
@uh oh..........
500....that's FIVE HUNDRED 52-week LOWS. Worst in 15 years.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:01 - ID#342376)
Just watched CNBC.
I havn't watched CNBC in a long time. The spin they put on things makes me dizzy. So the focus now is that the DOW is staging a rally off the lows of the day, now down only 150 points! WELL off it's low. What a crock! The spin meisters there are worse than the Clinton administration, or are they the same? The commentary on Gold was very lame. He made no decisive comment on gold in a deflationary environment but did comment "how could we be in a deflationary spriral with stock prices like this?" I don't think CNBC got the bad spin on Gold they were hoping for.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:02 - ID#431263)
AG DON'T WANT NO CRASH--JUST A SLOW, ORDERLY, LOW VOLUME DECLINE! 100 Dow a point a day for a month will do it just fine and get us back to the level where he told us abot IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE! AND THEN...heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:04 - ID#36156)
Anyone else having problems posting onto K-2? I keep getting a password error.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:07 - ID#411259)
..... Gunny .....

Regarding the drink:

The reverse is indeedy true. Homey don't drink but a couple times a month, and then perhaps a couple beers or glasses of wine. Don't like writing with the head muddy. In fact I just don't like the muddy head. Rest assured that each and every word I have ever written here was entirely sober. Can't put words together like that, if your wits aren't about you.


Oh yeah, I was whacked out on Nyquil sometime last year because I had a cold. I do remember posting some on that evening. Perhaps it is precisely that I stay so clear headed that makes me not fear my own favorite tactic: the cut and paste. I see others have learned that the cut and paste is a highly effective way of bring a slug into the light. When a ( im ) poster writes while under the influence of something, he may not know what he is saying and is usually sorry the next day. I fear no cut and paste. I will stand by every post I have ever made. The intemperate imbibers may have some trouble on that point.

Good joke though, I like the part about blasting the Iraqis. You know as well as I though, that I am very easy to get along with. I would rather laugh and joke between market info than trade barbs with folks. Even some who I had problems with in the past, now count me as an ally. The bluster caused by one individual is disruptive as hell. The last month on this site was peaceful and productive.

Doesn't everybody want to keep it that way?

Jujube laid down his life for this lofty goal.

Someone should at least sing a hymn.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:09 - ID#350179)
Fasten your seatbelts
Last downthrust in progress.
If it breaks 8590... uh oh ( hi EJ )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:10 - ID#288369)
@The pilot........
has turned on the seat-belt warning light....HOWEVER, we do encourage BOTTUMS-up! and recommend you light one up.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:12 - ID#373284)
a prediction
we will see a staff change, big staff change within 10 months at CNBC...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:13 - ID#342376)
New spin on CNBC!
Report tonight on why not to panic and how a downturn is a sign of sanity!! It agree with the posts today that the PPT is looking for an orderly decline. Perhaps the PPT only comes in like today, to prevent an outright crash. October is going to be a different story though.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:14 - ID#411259)
..... Golden Cheese & Fox .....


Acampora called for a 2000 point drop back to 7000 at least. Coming from one of the most tunnel visioned Wall Street cheerleaders of all time, this is pretty big news. What next, Barton Biggs will start buying gold? Will wonders never cease?


I held on to some shorts, but the stops are tight. Closed better than half my gold shorts today.

RJ be a buyer of gold, not a seller.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:14 - ID#254269)
Studio.R; If I light one up, is it okay if........................................I
don't inhale ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:15 - ID#242325)
the action
High volume in several XAU components a good sign as is the ability of AU to rally sharply on a steep down day for stocks. Less encouraging is the fact that the broad-based Toronto Gold Index is up less than 1% today on a four buck plus jump in bullion.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:17 - ID#212197)
Dow crawled up to almost -100 and now the roller coaster is heading
down again: -141 @ 3:20 pm.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:17 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' it is an unwritten law of the universe, if you light it,
you must inhale...deeply...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:18 - ID#254269)
Dow volume 718 Million shares with 38 minutes .........................
to go. Will go awful close to 800 MM shares, IMHO.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:20 - ID#320202)
old gold
...may be people got burned too often, crying wolf etc. guess we will have to wait and see if gold will stand up finally and can be counted for

........I bought some SouthWesternGold SWG/Tse today, to do my share


(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:22 - ID#215235)
Do my eyes deceive me?
USA Today web-site has AU up $4.80 at the close. Is this right?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:22 - ID#254269)
but tolly; I don't want to

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:23 - ID#411259)
..... Jonesy @ Get away, you turkbutt .....

Now THAT was funny.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:23 - ID#212197)
The NASDAQUE is still slightly losing (-45)
while somebody is buying desperately blue chips. DOW = 120;

This is a fun day!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:23 - ID#336393)
Remember, the TGL was closed yesterday during the big decline in the XAU so maybe it doesn't have as much catching up to do today as did the XAU.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:25 - ID#288369)
It is for your own good.......T#1 would never advise you otherwise. We will be passing out....snacks shortly.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:25 - ID#288186)
RJ' Thanks partner! I plan to buy back in if I see Dec Gold climb over 296...
I think we could consider that level a bullish enough turn around
couldn't we? Yep. Exciting day indeed!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:26 - ID#212197)
August Gold is up $4.80
and Silver is up $0.09.

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:26 - ID#28586)
@MR Mick and "when is the PPT going to run out of cash?"
HA! You mean, when are they going to run out of NUMBERS, don't you?

Ain't no cash, big guy! Somebody in a room somewhere turns to a computer, clicks with the mouse and suddenly the select five or six brokerage firms ( Robert Rubin's "Persian boys" ) get a magic $100 billion to BS one or more market indexes.

The PPT can arbitrarily do this 'till Hell freezes over -- just WHO do you think is going to demand where the "cash" comes from? You? You gonna strut into the Federal Reserve and say "whoa boys! Lemme have a look at the money yalls 'sposed to be using for all this fun!"

Get real. There is *NO* limit to the arrogance & power delusion of the people who are trying to control, run our lives, and use us. Their mania for power is absolute. Just like Hitler, Phol Pot, Stalin, FDR etc.

The only real question is this:

How will we see the billions upon billions of PPT "injection money" manifest itself?

1 ) Either that PPT money coming out of the market will, after quivering on the sidelines in abject fear, pour back into the market in some great Tsunami ( hence Dow 10,000 ... 20,000 ... 30,000 ) , or...

2 ) It will be spent on tangible things,gold, silver, Mr. Pibb, BMW 850s, terbium, causing ( cough ) "The Mother of All Inflations".

If they do #1, then it just defers doomsday a while longer before #2.

Spud, Impeach Clinton & lease Nuremburg for the trail.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:28 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:28 - ID#342376)
an oldie but a goodie.....
"Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride"

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:31 - ID#215235)
Sucker Rally?
Is today's rise in POG and large volume in nearly all gold stocks a sucker rally or has the precious finally made a positive turn?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:32 - ID#288369)
@Ralph A................
OH MY GOD!!!!!!!!!! Incredible.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:35 - ID#424424)
Looks bad for the DOW
Here we go below 8600!!!!!!!

Acampora turning bearish especially if we close below June lows of

Go DOW!!!!! He he he

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:36 - ID#288186)
HOLY DOW COW!! The S&P500 is back down to 1089.00!! Bad Day For
The Wall Street Boys!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:37 - ID#229207)
The buzz here in the biz section of the plane is as choppy as the air we're flying through. Umph! Hard to type! Lots of folks keep interrupting me from reading my email to ask me to check the markets. The guy in front of me has been on the horn with his broker selling. His broker's trying to talk him out of it. The woman sitting next to him is telling him his broker's a jerk-off. An amusing scene. I at least have the sense to drink at a time like this. Can't seem to get any updated market numbers. runs a 10min delay is now linked to yahoo, and they're showing 3pm EST numbers, as is Fidelity. Hmmm.

Gollum, sure wish I knew where that dern dog o mine was at. I'm afraid he's down there chewing the hell out of things. I don't want that market to fall down yet, not before I've sold my house. If you see him down there, give him a cigar and send him home.

I'll check back later...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:40 - ID#431263)
RALPHIE BOY ACAMPORA!! NOW WITH MUCHO SCHEISS ALL OVER HIS FACE AND LAWSUITS AWAITIN' FROM ALL HIS SHEEPISH CLIENTS!!!!! ID DOW CLOSES BELOW 8560 NEW DOWN TARGETS FOR THE DOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED!! Where's the DOW 10,000 NOW? Evidence now suggests that June lows will not hold and odds are now 50/50 that the Dow will not make it to 10,000 this year! OH REALLY!! What bullscheiss!! Secondaries in a BEAR already and DOW goin' into a BEAR! IT'S A BEAR CALL! OH REALLY!!!! Heh..heh...heh! DOWDUMP PICKIN'UP SPEED @ -250!!! DUMP!!! DUMP!!! DUMP!!! GET ME OUTA' HERE BEFORE THE CLOSE! FIDELITY SEES A SMALL OUTFLOW FROM ITS FUNDS TODAY!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:43 - ID#320202)
STUDO-....... We will be passing out....snacks shortly.

ROFL, thanks for a good laugh, hope we have some more


(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:45 - ID#342376)
Ralph Acompora...
On CNBC. If DOW breaks through June lows, he gives the DOW at 10,000 less than a 50/50 chance this year. WOOOOOO!!! What a call Ralph! Now that took guts! I've never seen such smoke and mirrors. Who will be the first on CNBC to scream the truth, that the Emperor has no clothes! By the way boy and girls, be on your best behavior!! We should be getting many new visitors. I had trouble getting on today.

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:45 - ID#28586)
'nuff said.

Spud, with a tip o'the hat to the Criminal in Chief.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:45 - ID#288186)
DJIA @ 8519 (-267) as of 03:49pm ET.... wuuuuups.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:47 - ID#411259)
..... The short answer .....

Sam -

You are correct that not all costs of production is in local currency. The largest slice of the production costs go to labor though, and labor is paid in local currency. So a rising dollar is free money for the producers - for awhile.

Someone else mentioned a day or two ago that I did not explain the contango in my brief post on what a short or forward sale is.

I oversimplified the process because there are still people reading this page who were asking, "Who is buying gold at $400, when gold is below $300." The intent is to help people understand the concept, I can flesh it out later. Understanding what a short is, and how it affects the market would seem to have enormous more bearing on gold, than the cheerleaders saying gold will rise no matter what. People need to understand that the arrow is not straight and the price will rise and fall as it is generally rising.

If people hereabouts could understand what shorting is all about, they will then come to realize that there are resistant levels at which new shorts will step into the market. This knowledge allows you to make a choice of selling and taking your profits, hedging somehow, or just riding the price back down. Long term holders, of which there are legions on the site, could usually care less about a $20 drop in gold. Why should they care, they arent selling anyway? Traders, however, are very concerned with these pullbacks. Why not make profit over the same ground again and again.

If one trades the market, gold never has to rise above $320, platinum above $400, and silver above $6.00 to make enormous profits. Just ride the rally up, and sell it down. Try doing that 2 or 3 times rather than just letting the metal sit there.

This is not an argument to convince long term holders of gold to become traders, but I suspect most here do a bit of both. Holding gold long term - especially through Y2K, is a wise and prudent move. I dont expect gold to do much this year, but in 1999, I think it will fly.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:48 - ID#57232)
Rhenquist turns down current WJC appeal
All: From Matt Drudge again -- K Starr has two grand juries -- one for Clinton Lawyers, one for Secret Service agents. WJC star is tarnishing.
I suspect Chief Justice Rhenquist is not a big Clinton supporter. Perhaps he thinks it is time for a balance of power between the three branches of government. Another possibility is that the Clinton ship of state is unraveling faster than we think. Wonder what all of those diehard Clinton supporters are thinking now -- not a peep out of James Carvil recently.


Please paste above site together, and replace xttp with http.

Could we be reaching rock bottom in gold/gold equities? Could be soon.
I am about ready to add a bit to my Gold equity holdings. My guess is that the Clinton business may override the deflation business. Gold is known to respond to political uncertainty -- and -- the commodity price indices should bottom soon ( months ) .

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:49 - ID#288186)
EJ made a correct call on the DOW plummeting the last hour of trade.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:51 - ID#342376)
Great minds think alike! If I start using capslock I'll start to worry though. Thanks for the laughs STUDIO.R Kitco would never be the same without you.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:52 - ID#348286)
Dutchman: It may well be a trap for Gold bulls short term, but the split between equities and Gold is looking very nice at this point

(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:54 - ID#431263)



Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 15:55 - ID#347267)
CNBC discussing Capitulation --- NOT YET by a long shot IMVHO. This may be a very SHORT term capitulation; in fact I'm hoping for a move up of 200-300 Dow points to short into and add to my RYURX position. So lets start a list of groups/sectors to short during the next up shove.
I nominate #1 group the Brokerage Houses and such. Anyone care to add to the list?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:02 - ID#348286)
@Down a nice 300 !
Watch Asia tonight ............

(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:02 - ID#287312)
Prudential calls a Bear Market on CNBC !!!!
Fidelity reports outflows !

(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:05 - ID#246224)
Aesthetic Rule #1247: Puke enhancement on DOW downdrafts
para 3 ) It must be noted that typical end of day puke has to little texture or color to bring the experience to its strongest effect. We recommend a few snacks, well chewed, in order to make up for this definiciency. Of particular interest are peanuts, cheese crackers or gold fish as well as kelp chips for the health conscious.

"Oh, Stewardess. My I have another package of peanuts, please?"

(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:08 - ID#57232)
PPT letting the air out slowly - masterful!
GoldenCheesehead, Gollum: Don't know which of you thought of this -- but it makes sense, doesn't it? We want an orderly retreat, not a rout. How about this as a corollary?
Q: Why didn't WJC object to the PPT letting the air out?
A1: Perhaps the insiders know he is history, so the markets can't hurt him. Or, ----
A2: Perhaps WJC knows that the markets are too high anyway, and he has agreed that a little careful pricking is necessary.

Either way you look at it, the Democrats will have a big problem come presidential election time. I don't know how the markets could come roaring back unless WJC has a major positive reversal of fortunes. Forget another Iraq crisis -- a little Saddam Hussein diversion will make the markets go down even faster, and the player of the first hand will probably be Saddam. Wonder how much money he will make in the markets this time?

What if Japan does not have any funds for the US markets come Jan 1999?

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:37 - ID#225408)
Open letter to Farfel (K-2 is down)

I confirm your difficulty posting at K-2. I tried to post the following to Farfel and got the same result. Since the content was promised to RJujube last night and since he/they has/have been commenting here about his/their exploits all morning, I will post it here.

Before I do, please allow me to dispell any impression that I am advocating allowing Farfel back in here. I am not! Actions do have consequences. Farfel must live with his. However, banning him from posting at K-2 at the behest of should not be one of them. With this caveat I offer the following which was originally intended for K-2:


Contrary to what RJ/Jujube would have us believe, you do not have to beg his permission to post at Kitco-2. All you have to do is have the guts to post what you believe and what you think is right. That is long as Bart lets you.

This is a matter that I have thought long and hard about. For confirmation of this see my post of 19 May @ 18:14:
which posed a number of questions to RJ. They were never answered by him, more likely because he never read them than out of any reluctance to engage me on his part.

In any case, you are correct in noting that RJ seems to want to be seen as some sort of authority figure at Kitco. You are not the first poster he has taken it upon himself to run out on a rail. ANOTHER was another.

LGB's opposition to ANOTHER was predictable. Opposition was all he ever had to offer to any idea or premise ( with the exception of numismatic opinions ) . He was truly one of Spiro Agnew's "nattering nabobs of negativism".

RJ's denigration of ANOTHER was more serious and betrayed more sinister motives. Originally, I was willing to believe that RJ was merely the consumate professional whose point of view kept him so closely observant of short-term market action that he lost sight of the big picture. He seemed to have no interest in it, lacked the fundemental knowledge to understand it, and admitted on occasion that he was too caught up in the day-to-day details to concern himself with it. Then why was he so opposed to ANOTHER?

ANOTHER does understand and paint a big picture in very broad strokes. His concepts go back to the history of monetary agreements and international policies since before the end of WWII, at least. He focused our attention on the LBMA and the BIS, topics I never heard a word about from RJ. We all gained in understanding from ANOTHER. One might even suspect that you yourself have been reading him from your comments yesterday about the coming fate of the dollar.

So why did RJ want to send him packing?

Because anyone subscribing to ANOTHER's THOUGHTS would want to buy gold ( and other PMs and certain tangibles ) to hold them through the coming demise of the US dollar. Such a person would not want to trade in and out for mere short term gains and risk missing the big move. But wait one darn minute! That is not the kind of clientele RJ and his firm wants to develope, is it? Not at all. "Get em in and get em back out with a profit...nobody ever went broke making a profit...etc." That keeps the margin loans maxed out, he real money being made by loaning the money to buy the metal. I'm sure you see my point. Let's say a client buys 10,000 ozs of silver at $4.50 and borrows 80% of the money to do so. Silver starts climbing. At $7.00 the client still owes the same $36,000. Wouldn't it be much better if you could get him to owe interest on $56,000 instead? With the insurance that if the price declined enough to trap him there he would have to keep paying interest until he could get back out again?

So a buy and hold mentality on the part of clients would put a big chill on profits at Monex. Does RJ understand this? You bet he does! He is a pro. Anyone who gets in the way has to be removed. ANOTHER understood this and did ask RJ if his firm was behind his attitudes. You accused RJ of shorting the markets and driving prices down. This could not be tolerated. You, Farfel had to be provoked into unacceptable positions and language. You were. ( By the way, your RJ/nazi immitation was not really that good, but it did have its own flashes of brilliance. ) For my part, I personally am willing to extend RJ the benefit of the doubt and suggest that with his severely restricted, professional point of view he loses sight of some of this from time to time. He is probably not as coldly calculating as I have suggested. Yet his professionalism cannot help but color his thinking.

Does any of this mean that RJ becomes the arbiter of content at Kitco? I say no! He has his point of view, that is all. Lately he seems to think that his contribution should be his own withdrawal or your banishment, nothing less. You don't have to confirm him in this! You are entitled to your own point of view. I am entitled to mine. Every poster has something to contribute. But it must be articulated clearly.

Repetition does not always add clarity. In your case, clarity was smothered in repetition.

Do not stop posting at K-2. Post better! Some of the more open-minded among us will be there from time to time to read what you write.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 16:39 - ID#288369)
@l_b & crazytimes...........
I am not a sadist, BUT....I must admit I'm grinning from ear to ear 'cause the Equity family now has that same hollow-gut feeling we've had forever. I AM A GOLDBUG! ( notice I didn't deny being a masochist ) .


(Tue Aug 04 1998 17:12 - ID#350179)
Help, hello, whatever...

Is there anybody out - there ( Pink Floyd )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:04 - ID#350179)
Hello test
Cyber silence, hmmm.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:09 - ID#316193)
"It does not appear there is any safe place to be except bonds, gold, and cash."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:11 - ID#300202)
$30,000 gold
News release referencing Kitco's Krazy Krap now focusing more worldwide
attention while squeezing out bandwidth. Hope it sells more of Bart's

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:11 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.45. I am switching to the 144 day moving average tonight and it is 29.44. We are exactly at the 144 day M/A. It was at this point that the Dow/Gold ratio stopped and recovered on October 28, 1997. Breaking through and closing below tomorrow or in a few days would be a major event in my opinion.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:16 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .217. The 144 day moving average is .253. There have been 9 occasions where the XAU has closed in the 62.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #8. The #1 ranking was on July 22, 1986, with a gold price of $353.20, an XAU of 62.77, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .178

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:17 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 52.98. The 144 day moving average is 50.58

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:18 - ID#317193)
F*...keep posting on K-2...Gold...we will see
F* keep your head about you...go ahead and post...positively.

I know I never got permission but I plan to sneak a beer tonight AND post if I get the chance. RJ...clear head or not. : )

Gold... will it trend up? One day does not a trend make but I like this for a start. RJ is correct, if your trading...go short and long unless you want to just play one-half of the market. No one thinks ill of APH for doing such. Yes?

I hope gold rises without my fellow boomers suffering...doubt that is possible. We watch this ne...never mind...time tells all.



(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:20 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages.
Spot gold $296.61; spot silver $5.63; XAU 69.76

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:34 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages
Spot gold $301.95; spot silver $5.63, XAU 79.85; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.87. At the closing today the Dow/Gold ratio was +5.67% above the daily 233 day moving average. On October 27, 1997 we were +7.11% above the daily; on August 6, 1997, we were +35.82% above the daily. I do not have a lot of historical data on these deviations but that which I do have indicates that the deterioration since August 6, 1997, is of major importance.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:36 - ID#343171)
I consider todays action to be extraordinarily bueno for bullion, having said that we can now sit back, pop open a few well deserved cold ones and watch the Aussies and SAfricans sell forward. BUT if our prematurely ejaculatiing buddies can refrain we maybe can get some legs on this one day phenom.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:37 - ID#219363)
As the world turns ...
New Zealand opens down and is -25.95 ( 1.25 percent )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:38 - ID#431263)
Let's see now, what was it? Oh yes, AU OVER and OUT! Heh...heh..heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:40 - ID#255151)
World Markets

Brazil down over 5%. What will the Asian markets do tonight?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:41 - ID#227238)
The topic of island or key reversals has been brought up several times. For an example pull up a daily chart on DROOY for the past 3 days. Down on high volume and up today on good volume.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:41 - ID#280339)
VIX fear index rising
The VIX closed over 33 today. Volitility for at the money OEX options are now double their recent lows of 16.5. This suggests we may be near a short term reversal.

Tbonds took out resistance at 123-16. So they still have some life in them. When dollar index closes below 100 TBonds will be in trouble.

Sounds like champagne. A toast to long suffering gold bugs!!!

Got Gold!!

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:42 - ID#347267)
From Bridge:

Updated Tue Aug 4 16:10 ET

Full:NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold up $4.6; shorts cover

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Aug 4--COMEX Dec gold futures made a dramatic turnaround
today, managing to claw back early losses to settle up $4.60 at $292.50 per ounce. After initially extending Monday's price slide to hit a contract low of $286.80 in the overnight Access session, Dec gold was helped higher by a firmer yen and then a dip in US stocks. This prompted a flurry of panicked short-covering, pushing Dec to 4-day high of $293.50 late in today's session.
* * *
Traders said that one large NY trade house, who had been on the buy-side
early Monday, was once again the main player behind the initial move
As gold climbed, shorts started to feel vulnerable and rushed in to
cover, said one trader, noting that Monday's heavy jump in open interest
was indicative that more shorts positions were added during the downturn.
COMEX reported that open interest on Dec climbed by 14,334 contracts Monday to 96,868.
Bernard Savaiko, analyst at PaineWebber, said that the dip in US stocks
prompted a *****"flight to QUALITY" with GOLD being a beneficiary.*****
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to its lowest intraday
level since Mar 6 and was down 71.14 at 8514.60 at 1550 ET.
Stock analysts are divided as to whether today's stocks fall represents
a correction or will be the start of a downward trend.
"Equities have been volatile in the last few weeks...That's why people
are taking a look at gold again," said Ted Kempf, analyst at CPM Group.
"With gold again almost retesting the lows it saw in January, it
becomes more difficult to justify going short," he noted. He said that if
gold does not test $284 near term, players will probably try for $290
resistance and it will then trade in a $290-300 range.
Analysts generally expect that gold will not become popular among
investors unless alternative assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies
undergo corrections and become less attractive.
"Gold is vulnerable to sharp moves and if it doesn't get above $290,
the same traders are likely to short it again," Kempf said.
Traders said that while today's rally was sparked by an overnight
uptick in the yen, the yen's recovery was at best anemic, with it trading
sideways in the US session.
"The yen is up, although it's not made that much headway and we've had
some physical buying, but it's all to do with short-covering," said one
trader, noting that this week's price drop took gold into oversold
Another noted that Dec gold's move above $290 was "helping" to
encourage chart-based buying.
Some remain unconvinced that the rally will last. "If there's a lack of
fresh selling there will be some kind of rally, but it'll be short-lived,"
said one trader, noting that the overall tone in gold remains negative.
Traders said that for the rally to be sustained, the yen would need to
continue to edge up from its lows against the dollar.
"It could be a good short-covering rally if the Japanese get their
house in order...If not and the yen falls, it will push gold lower again,
because there's no other real reason to buy gold," said one trader.
Meanwhile, traders said that Monday's spot gold price drop to a 6 1/2
month low of $283.60 per ounce gold had pushed up retail demand. "Banks
have reported doing decent business in small bars and coins," said one
trader, but he cautioned that this type of business is not sufficient by
itself to hold up prices.
Silver and platinum ended the day higher in step with gold, while Sep
palladium broke the ranks to end down $7.20 at $294 per ounce. Palladium
dropped after Japanese buyers told Bridge that Russian export agency Almaz
is expected to reach an agreement soon and sign 1998 export contracts for
platinum and palladium, resuming shipments to Japan in early September.

--Dec gold ( GCZ8 ) at $292.5, up $4.6; RANGE: 293.5-286.8
--Sep silver ( SIU8 ) at $5.453, up 9.3c; RANGE: 5.48-5.35
--Oct platinum ( PLV8 ) at $337.0, up $5.8; RANGE: 378.8-370.2
--Sep palladium ( PAU8 ) at $294.0, dn $7.2; RANGE: 294.0-288.0

Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 288.10-288.60 285.30-285.80 284.90-285.60
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.44-5.47 5.38-5.41 5.37-5.40
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 374.00-376.00 374.00-376.00 371.00-373.00
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 288.00-298.00 291.00-301.00 299.00-309.00


Comment to JTF re ur 16:08 : WJK don't know the meaning of "a little careful pricking" IMHO

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:43 - ID#431263)
BZZZZ! BZZZZ! BZZZZ! BZZZZ! BZZZZZ! We're sorry! But due to unexpected call volume the lines are temporarily overloaded. Please call back at a later time! We're sorry for any inconvenience this may cause you and want you to know we are doing all in our power to rectify the problem as quickly as possible!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:43 - ID#147201)
JTF re WJC appeal
Couldn't get URL to work. Any suggestionc?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:45 - ID#227238)
Looking at option prices after the close today; they didn't move very much. If this move in gold is to have any legs under it, options will have to display some strength as well. Judged by today, the option writers are not concerned for the long side. But it's early.

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:47 - ID#225408)
Message from Stradmaster
To all friends and admirers of Stradmaster:

Talked by phone with Stradmaster today and he asked me to let you all know that he just suffered a major computer crash. Repair service says it may be 8-10 working days in the shop. Doesn't appear to be Y2K related. Will be in touch when he is up and running again.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:47 - ID#434108)
now, an important, fundamental shift, in 'flow of funds'; w/ a change, to a 3 -ring - circus (tent)
In 9/97, I posted a post, and 'pretended-poem',
here at kitco..

When the 'tent' collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first....."
etc. ....

( the "tent" - being the global economy, and
the "center-post" - being the U.S. economy & markets" .

The current unfolding events, and
foggy crystal-ball,
hint of the possibility, that
the 'tent' of global-economy,
is a 3-ring-circus affair, rather than
a world dominated by U.S. dollars, markets, bonds,
and U.S. if, the sole, single - "center-post" .

Perhaps the recent GM strike,
is a symbolic metaphor, of how eager, this country - the USA -
to shoot itself,
in the foot.

Pyrrhic victories,
take their toll;
and bleed a nation's soul,
in feigned denial's postponed disguise.

Then, it is, perhaps,
a 3-ring-circus "tent" ...
that is here and now,
slowly but surely unravelling - until wrent .

Perhaps, with this currently toppling DJIA & Nasdaq index
...perhaps - with their lead-warning
there is an impending implosion in US markets,
currency, and economy
And thus,
although this center-post - 'America',
may NOW
snap, crumble, crash & fall,

There may well be a-nother center-post or two,
in this '3-ring-circus' tent

just perhaps & maybe,
there are two more...... other ...
center-posts, to hold forth

in this
paper-money & false credit
de- bac- le.

If, now,
the US ( -markets/dollar ) is/are
increasingly viewed,
as increasingly un-safe places to put one's money,
and the life of the money-tree;

Where-else, then?
might the world's yearning, freedom-money,
next - then -
flee. ....? !

to Europe;
to Asia
... ? !


Perhaps they are unfolding now,
as the increasingly "more-stable" & 'popular'
( other two ) "center-posts",
of this 3-ring circus ( -global-economy- ) of.....
of the ultimate, and inevitable....
un-raveling 'tent'.

One thing for sure,
when the menders and healers are enlisted,
for the sake & salvation
of this collapsing, ruined tent....
they will be....
those modest, humble souls,
who possess not only golden threads,
but also
generous and courageous hearts

to weave and work
all thru
a renewing humanity and a world-wide civilization
re-creating itself

with a commitment
that is, ultimately,

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:50 - ID#219363)
Fun with math
If you had a 1000000 in cash ( $US ) sitting in a money market somewhere right now, what would you be doing with it ? I'm curious. Move out of ( $US ) and into something else seems prudent if the dollar is set to drop. Move out of ( $US ) and into Gold seems prudent if you think Gold is gonna ride the bull. Move out of ( $US ) and into a foreign currency ? into a foreign market ? What would YOU do ?

People make money in rising and falling markets, but fortunes are made and lost during chaotic times.

You've got a cool million $US, what's your call ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:50 - ID#402148)
SMELL MY BOTTOM>>>>>>>>>AU up >.80

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:55 - ID#431263)
40% BEAR-X!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:55 - ID#207145)
Money market

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 18:59 - ID#347267)
Robbie Stevens Contrarian Fund
Would you believe a contrarian fund supposedly heavy in gold stocks DOWN today??? I used to own this fund, glad I do no longer. Looks like he was a capitulator yesterday or earlier. Recommend stay away frum this 'un. Chart:

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:01 - ID#434108)
Envy's cool million @ 18:50
a cool million.....huh?
US dollars ....huh?
and the irs has already taken their share..... is that right?


ok, i know:

just -
sit on it

or sleep it on it
( -depending on your preference )

( -in cold CASH )
at least until after tomorrow's close

and then,
ask we kitco gurus again - your million-$ question.....

.... ask it, again.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:03 - ID#434108)
Envy's cool million
Envy !
Wait a minute - I know!

"What are you doing tonite?
How about a date?"

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:04 - ID#26793)
Referencing my post at 18:34
I said that the Dow/Gold deviations of the 233 day moving averages were of major importance. An historical example follows. On August 30, 1929, the Dow/Gold Ratio was +23.78% above the 233 day moving average. By October 17, 1929, the ratio had deteriorated to only +6.78% above the 233 day M/A. From an historical perspective this is the closest reading to the reading of today.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:04 - ID#342376)
Divergence in Gold from dollar/yen!!!!
Dollar is up slightly to the yen but gold is up .90 Things are looking good for gold. Can it hold though?

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:05 - ID#345321)
SpudMaster, of course, you are right, the PPT makes their money the old.....
fashioned way. They zap it into existence out of nothingness ( electronically, of course ) . I must say that I have enjoyed watching the bulls take a beating today, as it appears the Asian problem is "bigger than expected" as Campora noted. Also, the Kitco comments on the clowns at CNBC have been really funny! Keep it up, Cheesehead!!!

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:05 - ID#430221)
Gold physical 10%

Gold Stocks 30%

Silver Phys. 5%

T- Bills 55%

Physical can get stolen. Gold in the ground is safer.

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:06 - ID#288369)
15% Gold and Silver ( physical )
15% Utilities
20% AAA Bonds, double tax exempt
15% RSA gold stocks
25% Van Kampen Prime Rate Trust ( 7% yield )
10% Cash

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:07 - ID#220325)
Happy to read your first post! Your information is certainly worth contemplating. If you have not already read it there is a book called Boom Gust & Echo by David K. Foot. Pub Macfarlane Walter & Ross dealing with much the same subject. You may also consider posting with a handle as it is easier to remember than numbers. Thanks for the information and welcome to the group.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:08 - ID#220325)
Congratulations APH on shorting the S&P yesterday
Following your next moves with interest. Thanks

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:16 - ID#401460)
No Insurance for Yr2K!
Tuesday August 4, 6:44 pm Eastern Time

Insurance Cos. Seek 2000 Exclusions

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Hoping to head off billions of dollars worth of litigation, the insurance industry has asked regulators for permission to exclude businesses' Year 2000 losses from their commercial liability policies.

The Insurance Services Office, a company that helps insurers deal with regulatory issues, has received permission from 46 states for insurance companies to deny Year 2000 claims.

Six lawsuits, including four class actions, have already been filed against software companies including Intuit Inc. ( Nasdaq:INTU - news ) , maker of Quicken home finance software, and Symantec ( Nasdaq:SYMC - news ) , Corp., which makes software that helps computer users perform various file management tasks. They allege the companies knowingly sold software that would not work in the year 2000.

In an action that would be similar to tobacco lawsuits, attorneys general in several states are considering suing software companies to recoup the cost of fixing Year 2000 problems.

At least one insurer, the American International Group Inc. ( NYSE:AIG - news ) , is selling, for an extra premium, up to $50 million of Year 2000 coverage as part of some policies that shield officers and directors of a company that is sued.

AIG wouldn't say how much the coverage costs. But analysts outside the industry said it was prohibitively expensive, and that AIG will require policyholders to demonstrate that they have taken steps to try to correct the computer problem.

Remeber posts from a couple of months back where AIG is part of the Rubin/Rockefeller team Boeing backing the IMF funding to Asia and everywhere else. Big brother is cashing in on Yr2K.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:16 - ID#226307)
A temporary bottom at DJIA 7000 is my down-side target for the next few weeks. By late September or early October, I'm looking for the DJIA to collpase to 3000 or lower.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:23 - ID#288369)
@Utilities investment....(inappropriate venue perhaps)........
Rather conservative approach, good yields, has worked for me:
The Duff and Phelps products, DUC, DNP, DTF check the yields....DTF actually went up today.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:23 - ID#431263)
Whatever you do, DON'T TELL VRONSKY! He's already DAZZLED by Ure's DOW 8300 call! He'll have an absolute STROKE if he hears you callin' for DOW 3,000! heh,heh,heh!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:24 - ID#219363)
Envy ain't got that kinda cash *grin*, so don't buy the cyanide and the plane ticket just yet. I was just curious what people would do.

For me, purely speculative - wouldn't it be nice if you could assume the stock market would be bearish, that gold would rise, that the dollar would get weaker, and that you could find an investment that took advantage of ALL of that ?

Say, maybe, a bottomed out gold stock for a company that resides in the US, but only has customers in ( pick a country that will have the largest upside if the dollar slides ) . Sort of a reverse rand situation with gold actually rising! *grin*.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:25 - ID#343171)
30% physical gold
20% cash under the mattress ( next to the uzi )
15% gold producer equities
15% junior gold equities
20% cash reserve in equity account in order to short amazon/yahoo/intel

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:28 - ID#261295)
Puetz...It's about time you

showed up about giving us the underpinnings of your 3000 projections again. They made sense last time you laid them out...

What are your forcasts for gold?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:29 - ID#227238)
Puetz: Good to see you back. ..... But how 'bout leavin' yerself some breathing room. A little equivocation never hurt nobody. .... {:- )

OTOH, if I thought that ( 3000 DOW by Sept/Oct ) was possible, I would sell Studio R's oil wells and put it all on the short side of the SP. ..... 'Course I'd split it with Studio. Uh Huh. I really would.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:30 - ID#295111)
15% Gold, physical
05% Silver, physical
35% Prime Gold Stocks, ABX PDG NEM, Franco Nevada, AngloGold
05% Precious metals fund, for loose cash contributions
15% Resourse Type Stocks, INCO, CAMECO, ABITIBI, Large Oil/Gas Co's etc
05% Cash

10% A GOOD Farm, just in case I'm wrong and you go broke so you can live off the land

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:31 - ID#26793)
Dollar crumbles against the mark today on Dow losses.

Lurker 777
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:32 - ID#320226)
WELCOME BACK! Wow, you start posting again and the Dow tanks 300 points in one day. You are the man. I have always enjoyed your insight and hope to see more of you here at Kitco. Thank You

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:33 - ID#261295)
Gold still creeping up...

293.3 on access.. up 90 cents.

go gold...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:34 - ID#227238)
Dec gold is still doing well. Up $0.90 on the PM session.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:35 - ID#227238)
BillD: Let's coordinate this. OK? ... {:- )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:35 - ID#288369)
@Bard Kitco, the illustrious equivacator.........(or earl).........(or me).........
All we have to do now is find a FOOL to buy the wells..... ( wait sixty seconds ) there's another one! But, alas, wherefore art he?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:35 - ID#242325)
POG and bonds
Today's gold action was, of coure, a big improvement. But the rally is suspect as long as bonnds remain strong. Rising POG and higher bond prices are like oil and water -- they do not mix for long.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:36 - ID#226307)
ALL: The call for DJIA 7000 this month, and 3000 by late September or
early October is a re-posting of a Kitco note I made on Sunday -- I believe it was a little past noon. I gave some of the reasons for such a
drastic decline in that posting.

Among the reasons I did not give -- LEVERAGE. This market is the
most leveraged stock market ever -- including 1929. NYSE Margin Debt is just a small part of the leveraged picture. Other big factors are credit card debt, home mortgage refinancings, and the big one ( derivatives ) .

Sell stocks, buy gold.


Steve Puetz

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:36 - ID#295111)
Russian Gold
Russia plans to sell certificates back by GOLD. I'm not fond of certificates at all but at least it's paper backed by Gold and another CB less likely to sell off their Gold.


Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:38 - ID#295111)
Looks likes the money from todays stock sell off is going into bonds. But I think that will be q losing strategy longterm.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:39 - ID#147211)
JTF re ref papers
I got the first one. The second one is on the way. I'll mail both together, OK? This is some real good stuff with many refs. A lot has happened since I first talked with them.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:39 - ID#433422)
Envy....60% into small diesel generators (2500- 5000w) for resale when they get scarce,

the rest in physical gold.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:40 - ID#227238)
Studio R: Modern markets are predicated on the greater fool theory. We'll find someone. Don't worry. The check is in the mail. .... 'n I really woulda split it with ya. ...... "Personal check OK?"

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:41 - ID#376309)
S&P and more
Today looked a bit overdone short term for the S&P. I think that we will close up on the day Wednesday, although I think that a lower open could happen easily. Today's low will be broken on a closing basis soon enought but not this week. I'm, as always, suspicious of today's rally in the metals and believe that Monday's low will be broken soon enough also.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:42 - ID#386245)
G'mornin' all
Did y'all have fun today??

Oz open in ten minutes. Our turn for some fun.

Just couldn't help myself.
Just couldn't help myself.

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:42 - ID#225408)
Sylvia Browne on Montel
Sylvia Browne, a very famous future-ologist with a long string of correct forcasts ( she said in January that the stock market will crash this year ) just said on the Montel Williams show that Monica L. is lying, the president has not done anything wrong, he is not lying and that the whole affair has been invented for political reasons by a shadowy group that appears to be a third political party.

If this turns out to be even partially true and he "did not ever have sex with that woman" there are sure going to be a lot of people with a lot of egg on their faces when this all comes out. ( So to speak. )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:44 - ID#342376)
Market Psychology
Permabulls must now acknowledge the poor outlook for American Markets. They surely must have known this time would approach but had taken such a strong bullish stance that they bleed it to the end. Ralph Acompora on CNBC showed that permabulls must now change their view or face the wrath of investors and their reputation as a forcaster. Many should soon follow. It was interesting that there was a comment from one gentleman that in essence said that the sudden reversal back down for the DOW after coming back from a 200 point loss occured after Acompora's comment of a possible bear market. That may be true. This market has been sustained on bullish commentary from over-zealous market analysts and twenty-something fund managers. Acompora's comments were very lame indeed, but it was his change from a permabull to a possible bear that had significance. At first the comments will be mildly bearish so as not to frighten but should build steam. The exact dynamic that made this a bull market so ridiculous will be the same thing that should make the bear market so brutal and possibly make gold go to the moon. I would be curious as to Farfel's comments on Market Psychology. Whatever you think of him, he's a master of that.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:45 - ID#288369)
@Earl of Duke.....
Actually I prefer Austrian Philharmonikers, one ounce, 2000 shillings, with a deep golden luster, spreading sunlight and happiness to all who may gaze upon is love.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:45 - ID#261295)
Yeah... take over...but do it right...up up up and away.

Grant...I watch Home Depot generators...still a good supply on hand...I check about once a week watching for them to be gone...but so far..good supply.

ps...the 5000 watt also had d240 volts .anything smaller only has 120...

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:46 - ID#295111)
Baby Boomers Getting Burned
I sense that the Baby Boomers are beginning to learn a good lesson from this stock market crash/correction/bear whatever.

The DOW bubble was fueled primarily by the Baby Boomers funneling money for early retirement.

Some babyboomers will now question what they have been doing investing solely in large caps...the nifty fifty that is.

Just a little common sense from these novice investors will make the POG shoot up real quick. Cause we only really need a small percentage of them to turn to gold to create some real momentum to this gold bull to come.

This DOW bubble is full of sh!t and I'm far away from it cause the bubble is heading towards a fan.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:49 - ID#317193)
100%-Indonesian Rupiah


(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:49 - ID#190411)
Being from LA
I can see why you might give creedence to drivel, ( or dribble ) from a seer, that appears on a smutty chat show.
Did she say anything about gold?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:50 - ID#386245)
PH in LA
And Santa Claus lives at the north pole.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:51 - ID#207145)
Phil in LA
If the Prez didn't do it lets frame him anyway.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:51 - ID#431263)
PH in LA! YOU one funny dude by gar! Har! Har! LOFLMAO AHHA!HA!HA!HA! AHO!HO!HO!

Where's my heart Monicer? AHAHAHAHA! OOOOH! HAAAA! HAAA! HAAA!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:53 - ID#261295)
As of the close today, the DOW

is up 7 percent for the year....still time to get out and have a good year...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:56 - ID#207145)
Phil in LA
Clinton would screw a stray dog.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:57 - ID#93241)
PH in LA
What did she say about PM's?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:58 - ID#288369)
@studio.......I'm just gonna' say this one time, so listen to me closely.......
"I have NEVER had sexual relations with a Philharmoniker. But I do have gold lust in my heart." My, I could have been a Billy or Jimmy........

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:58 - ID#431263)
Poor BUDDY! Where are all the animal rights activists lurkin'? Heh..heh..heh!

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:59 - ID#28586)
@PH in LA & the Liberal's suspension of rational thought
and my pet neutrino, Mr. Snappy, confidently stated today that Bill is guilty as sin of having limp, embarrassing sex with Monica, whom she refers to as "the Creep" ( as you know, neutrinos can go through anything, so I am tending to believe Mr. Snappy ) .

Mr. Snappy is also on record as having predicted the outcome battle of the Little Big Horn, the Dow low of 5 for 1999, and that Mr. Pibb would soon surpass sales of Dr. Pepper in the Republic of Texas.

Oh, oh ... and Mr. Snappy said this on tel-e-visun, so it fer sure must be true! After all, TV wouldn't lie to us!

Spud, wondering where PH in LA LA Land gets off...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:59 - ID#343171)
Phil in LA
did the seer say that red chinese army reps forced money in to klintons pockets??

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:59 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' But I must point out to impugn the Chief Justice by taking the cynics
eye is exactly the tool via which we as a country have been subverted. I would re-evaluate your thinking. The Chief Justice rendered ( and rather quickly ) his decision in front of the whole world, unlike Clintler, the First Bunt Cake, EnviroWhore Gore, CarVile, and the rest of the surreptitious weasels in Washington, D.C. and I do not leave out the Republicans that practice the same garbage. And of course the hiden scum that we do not see nor hear of or from directly.

Its about time We the People took back what is rightfully ours...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 19:59 - ID#26793)
@Mr. Mick
What's this about an Asian problem? Is this something I should be worrying about?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:00 - ID#218250)
The OTHER scenario looks to be unfolding!!!!!!!...Elliot Wave.
Sunday, I talked about an alternative wave count that was very bearish. This is now unfolding as the proper count. Its not very nice!
At what point do they stop trading for the day, because of too far too fast? Didn't they just change the circuit breakers from 550 points?
Anyway, this market has been extending to the downside with corrective up moves in three's. Very Very Bearish. It looks like the 3rd of a 3rd is happening NOW. This means we will probably hit 550 points and trading will be stopped for the day. Unless it has been changed. A target for the decline would be 1.618 x wave 1, or about 906 points to the 7783 area. This is a very real possibility. Also re-read my post last night about assumptions.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:00 - ID#190411)
Too bad Kaplan's on vacation.
I bet he'd do a bit of gloating today.
Teddo's dog -ABX, sure didn't do much today.
Lawsuit problems? What gives?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:00 - ID#434108)
PH & LA & the Seer & the prez & gold ... - not necessarily in that order
I'm inclined
to agree with
ERLE's inquisitiveness:

'What did she say about gold' ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:03 - ID#190411)
They don't discuss PM's on that show; more like PMS.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:04 - ID#93241)
Tantalus Rex, glenn
Tantalus Rex-gold certificates from the russkies=wallpaper for your next house

glenn-one day does not make a rally, does it? Commodities still look weak for the rest of this year.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:07 - ID#190411)
I saw my dead S+P puts twitch.
Not dead yet.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:08 - ID#434108)
PH in LA/the seer, SPUD et al.
don't take SPUD, and the rest of us,
too 'seriously'....'personally'..
we're just frustrated.....
dormant gold

... or is ML that we're vicariously lusting after?

diversion, is often
boredom's escape

and besides,
what if the 'seer' -
slept with him too....?

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:09 - ID#295111)
ST Rat, I appreciate immense what you are saying. I would never buy the Russia certificates. BUT YOU MUST AGREE, IT IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:09 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' Hey...Hey...what gives? Huh!? I played your CD's backerds
and all I hear is "Buy my oil wells, buy my oil wells and a phone number.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:09 - ID#256381)
Gold MA Crossover - From July 31
Last weekend, ( July 31 ) , The Privateer pointed out the anomaly that the short-term ( 20-week ) MA had crossed above the long-term ( 40-week ) MA on the Gold chart for the first time since June 1996.

This is an "anomaly" because it usually happens AFTER a bottom has been established, and this time, it happened with the $US Gold price still falling. Well, it has stopped falling, at least for the moment, in concert with a 300 point bath on the Dow.

The $US 4.80 rise today has established a "double bottom" ( at $US 284 ) on the $US 1 x 3 point & figure chart. That $US 284 level now presents a lovely "reference point" for anyone who wants to buy the physical. As long as it holds, no worries.

As far as the Dow is concerned, well, Privateer readers know what we think of THAT.

We now have charts and commentary, concerning both Gold and the Dow, up at The Privateer website. These are updated to reflect the action on August 4. In keeping with Bart's rules for this site, I post no URL here.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:10 - ID#207145)
Jammet Reno
Child killer, Waco bitch, ugliest hag in the US. Clinton lover.They had a night o Wine and Roses. Scummy panties Reno. Other tan that no problem.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:11 - ID#288369)
I learned that trick from George Martin. ;^ ) ~

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:11 - ID#93241)
tantalus rex
Yes, the whole day was a step in the right direction. May every day be like this one, yes?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:11 - ID#26793)
Canadian banks tumble on weak C$ dollar, poor economic prospects.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:11 - ID#219363)
Kitco says ....
If you wanna invest your cash somewhere, invest it in ...

20.63% Cash
17.51% Gold Stocks ( 17.86% of them juniors, 10.71% RSA )
15.31% Physical Gold
12.50% Indonesian Rupiah
06.88% T-Bills
07.50% Small Diesel Generators
05.00% BEAR-X
03.44% Physical Silver
03.13% Van Kampen Prime Rate Trust
02.50% AAA Bonds
01.88% Utilities
01.88% Resource Type Stocks
01.25% Good Farm ( Speculation Hedge )
00.63% Precious Metal Fund

And you'll do JUST fine ...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:14 - ID#219363)
Oh ...
And a partridge in a pear tree ...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:14 - ID#402148)
Let me interept all the political bickering.....
gold up $2 already tonight....gosh, could easily be up $10 by the time she comes back around in the AM.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:15 - ID#431263)
over the price of Gold---G - R - E - A T!!! Just what we need for a rip-roarin' GOLD BULL!!! And he ain't snortin COKE like the prez. either!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:15 - ID#228128)
Jims, John Disney
I really did see those numbers on my DBC URL of S. African stocks traded in the U.S. I checked it again tonight but its quoting in U.S. dollars now. I really did see the numbers I reported. Really! This gold bear hasn't made me crack.... I think.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:15 - ID#373284)
and since dying don't go outta little babe HABE...
managed an up day...STUDIO_R, didn't his little brother coach the Yankees

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:15 - ID#93241)
Hey, that might be a good idea. Oil wells are cheap right now. Maybe wait till Dec98 and get in at the bottom. Like my grandfather used to say, If you're gonna but low & sell high, first thing you gotta do is buy low. A gulp of the KY cognac to ya' on this fine day.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:15 - ID#317193)
Envy...the Rupiah was a joke...but might be that w/out it

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:16 - ID#426220)
The Big One is here!!!! AND IT'S A REAL BEAR

August 4th may go down in market infamy! Consider the draconian moves today.

- DOW 300 points

- US Dollar Index down more than 4%

- Gold UP nearly 5 Bucks

- Highest volume in the NYSE history - 815 million shares

- Japanese market opens DOWN 130 points with Nikkei at 15893

Testament that something very fundamental is occurring is the fact that ALL THESE DRAMATIC changes happened in One Day!!!!!!

It appears a sea-change paradigm is finally materializing.

Analyst Clif Droke is another astute market observer who has been predicting a market reversal -- the likes of which have not been seen for more than two long generations. Droke is forecasting a 7000 DOW very soon. His detailed observations may be appreciated at the following URL. Per tradition - it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:16 - ID#45173)
Just lucky I guess : )
Date: Tue Aug 04 1998 14:31
EJ ( The recent pattern has been for the market to drop in the last hour ) ID#229207:
"If the pattern holds, we might get a DOW down 300 today."

The DOW closed at 299.45


(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:16 - ID#57232)
Rehnquist rejection - repeat from Matt Drudge
Chas, all: Repeat of Matt Drudge post --
Please paste together, ( remove carriage returns ) ,
convert xttp: to http:

Mtn Bear: Your 18:42. Touche about the pinprick. I will not get into a discussion of WJC's anatomical characteristics -- but I think you get a clue from this in reference to his.
All: Lets not forget that this market is not going down steadily like a deflated bubble -- my guess is that alot of baby boomers are only beginning to sit up and take notice. But if WJC's fortunes start looking really bad, and he does not resign, or if Saddam ( who is not so dumb ) takes advantage of the situation, I could stand corrected.
As some of you have noted, WJC's fortunes are not just limited to Monicagate. Now all of WJC's Federal Lawyers are fair game, and even Jennifer Flowers is talking about the shadier side of WJC -- the death threats. I may be wrong, but I think WJC's fortunes are parallelling the markets, and if he goes down in earnest, so will the markets -- baby boomers or no.
My guess is that the markets are more resilient than we think, and if AG does his job with the PPT we will avoid a total market collapse. Lets hope so. And -- if we have market turmoil, the gold equities will start looking better and better to those baby boomers.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:18 - ID#401460)
Gold Chart


(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:18 - ID#26793)
Japan on the offensive to protect the yen

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:18 - ID#434108)
blooper's jamming at 20:10
take a deep breath....

good thing i'm not a Democrat...or i'd be condemned already....

who was it who said:

" err ( -to 'error ) ,
is human;
to forgive,
divine ...."

what - ? !

a Republican ?!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:19 - ID#411201)
...and OJ said he was gonna find the 'real killer' too but don't thinks they is on any golf courses do you ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:19 - ID#342376)
Scratch my last post, I sound like some of the forcasters I was making fun of
GO GOLD! There now, that's better.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:19 - ID#206298)
Ken Starr is setting up another grand jury investigation on Billie Boy.
Apparently Hillary has found some stains on a dress she found under Bills pillow.She said the stains resemble the stains on ML's dress. Bill has said it is " tapioca pudding" he had for dessert one night.Ken Starr
is now going to supeona the entire White House kitchen staff to get to the bottom of this. Clintons attorneys are objecting to the "Head Chef"

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:20 - ID#317193)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:21 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:21 - ID#377211)
secret SEC stolen document
I have been lucky to get a hand on a secret SEC document that will give you the jitters... Here is the link to see it... Hurry, before I am arrested....
Not for the faint hearted... Make sure that a good cardiologist is around in case this triggers a fullblown cardiac arrest episode... then again: Kitco members, instead, will think that the situation is very cool...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:22 - ID#207145)
I have a BIG problem with Waco and Ruby Ridge. I would do a number on her. She represents all that is vile about government. I am not on of these armed subversives. I still believe in voting.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:22 - ID#287312)
Kapex / New trading stops since April
Market stops for 30 minutes with each 10% fall. Stops for the day at 30%. I think this is correct.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:25 - ID#401460)
$ & PMs
US Dollar Index ( FINEX )
___________ 
Gold ( CMX )
Silver ( CMX )
Copper ( CMX )
Platinum ( NYM ) ( Access )


(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:26 - ID#219363)
Okay, I'll re-do it *sigh*, but only if you post a real break-down of what you would invest your million bucks in. *grin*.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:27 - ID#93241)
Market stops for 30 minutes with 10% drop? Seems to me, based on supply & demand, that would create an awful lot of pent up demand.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:27 - ID#288369)
That was his hard-headed cousin..........he actually had three twin brothers, one was a drunk rat-packer, and the other was a TV laugh-iner.

T#1....What common Kitco colloquialism reminds you most of Monica? ( you should know this )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:28 - ID#431263)

Bill Buckler
(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:28 - ID#256381)
"The Dow might be down 300 today"
Anyone notice EJs 14:31 post: "If the pattern holds, we might get a DOW down 300 today." Now, THAT'S calling it!

I also note that Richard Butler ( The head of the UN's Iraqi "Weapons Inspection" team ) was on the news last night ( here in OZ ) looking like a small boy who had been told to go to bed without his supper. Seems that the nasty Iraquis refuse to come clean. So, what else is new, Richard?

No obvious reason for the Dow to slump today, except just possibly that somebody sensed that Mr Clinton might be contemplating another little sojourn into Iraq to take the pressure off. Be a bit harder to do now, don't you think?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:32 - ID#219363)
Where did you get the Japan down 100 figure ? Not on that little yahoo chart, which is no doubt fudged up ( time delayed ? simply wrong ? )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:33 - ID#207145)
Clinton is saying
It was his dress!!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:35 - ID#207145)
Ed Krotch is a bit off.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:35 - ID#373284)
strat, Namaste'
and a shot and extra gulp of Patron back at ya...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:35 - ID#57232)
Rehnquist post
tolerant1: Your Rehnquist post to me just whizzed right by. My take on his decision is that he is showing our democratic three-legged stool of government still works. Yes -- I would prefer that 'we, the people' had already figured out WJC for what he is -- but, alas, they have not.
So Judge Rehnquist has help things along abit, IMHO. It is up to the American people to wake up and show the world that they understand also what kind of leader they have, and demand his impeachment or resignation. That may be coming, despite WJC's ability to survive impossible odds.
I do have one major concern, though, and that is that WJC may be considered a liability -- hence expendable -- by the very same shady Mena - derived individuals who put him in power. I would much rather have a painful, lengthy impeachment proceeding with the cleansing action that would come with it. Lets get the crooked types that put him in power out, too. The next time we have an 'AntiChrist-like' figure in the White House we may not be so lucky. Fortunately for us this time the charisma is in one individual, and the insatiable drive for power is in the other.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:36 - ID#260389)
Dad gum it we kicked him off too soon. We could use his insight into herd mentality about now.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:38 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
dunno...too much of a choice...bask in it...let it rip...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:39 - ID#248170)
Does anyone know a URL with the current Nikkei Stock Market level ?
Thank you

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:41 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste'...Hmmmmmmm...Oh...I think you will see a cleansing alright...
this November should be really interesting...gulp at ya...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:41 - ID#342376)
Does anyone know when Anglogold will trade on NYSE?
It should happen this August. Is the symboy now ANGDY? I can't find any info.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:43 - ID#411201)

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:44 - ID#207145)
Long dresses are here
Conservatism is back. So may be hard times.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:44 - ID#421269)
Try this

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:46 - ID#248170)
@ROSK & Isure
Thank you both very much !

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:46 - ID#57232)
Psst! How about letting me in on the secret!
Gaston2: Just exactly which day is the critical day on that graph for the margin calls? And don't tell anyone else -- just me, OK?

Seriously, I guess it all depends on how many individuals used their credit cards or home credit lines to get around the broker margin rules. Those 125% Calif. home loans go a long way. Don't know if they are convertible into home equity loans. Many of those cliffhanger type houses in Calif are worth millions in equity. Just imagine how hard it might be to sell one if the real estate market even stagnates a bit.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:48 - ID#411440)
@ ALL re gold lease rates: for the past 10 years, spikes in the
POG has always been preceeded with a drop in l month rates below
1% ( last time it was posted, it had risen from .7 to .8% ) and then
a sharp rise back up through the 1% level. This upserge in lease
rates has always preceeded the spike in the POG. So what are the
lease rates today? Bart is still not posting them. If lease rates
are not above 1%, then this is a false rally, and the bottom may still
not be in. IMHO Sorry people. I'm not buying until I see more
of the pattern, and gold puts in 2 or three good days.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:49 - ID#412286)
Anti worker and pro greedy exec policies
May be starting to bear a rich anti capitalist fruit...its lookin' schveet.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:50 - ID#411201)
to all...
for "pure plays" on POG consider KGC & NGC little to no hedging...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:50 - ID#218250)
Elliot Wave!!!!!!! Take the total point decline from the high to
the low, end of wave 1. Wave 1 ended either at around 8820, or 8786.If you use 9350 as the high and multiply the total times 1.618, or if very bearish, 2.618, or well, ahh, lets just stay there for now. 2.618 times the decline of 530 points is 1387.54 points. Subtract from the a-b-c high of wave 2 at 9040, if that is in fact the wave 2 high. It may be at 8885. BOTH COUNTS ARE DIRE INDEED. This would be at 7652 area, where wave 3 of 3 would end .....Possibly.The other count ends at the 7411 area.
Keep in mind this would happen in one big move. Will it? I'm afraid it just might. It could end at 1.618 times instead of 2.618, but so far it looks like we can expect the worst based on how it has unfolded so far.We shall watch together.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:55 - ID#28994)
Tantalus Rex 19.46
I had one of them baby boomer salesmen from Tempelton Funds telling me the Dow would exceed 20.000.
I could not find the tree he fell from, but he must be in hiding tonight.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 20:58 - ID#347235)
PH in LA
Pass on to Endre that Lois and I will be moving to Garmisch Partenkirchen this fall. Will contact him from there if he is not back up. Lois is a Computer Specialist and says that it may be cheaper to buy a new computer rather than pay the bench rate for that much time. I will be here for a while to sell the house after she leaves so I may get to exchange e-mail with him before I go over, Also tell him if he gets to Germany he has a place to stay. Thanks, Jere Smith

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:02 - ID#411201)
dec gold, sept silver futures climbing fast...all aboard, tickets pleas

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:03 - ID#288369)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. ( gulp )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:04 - ID#210114)
Smell your own Bottom

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:04 - ID#57232)
Dropping gold lease rates, then sudden upsurge.
rhody: How about this as a model? -- just before a financial crisis of some kind, there is a surge in gold liquidity ( gold as currency ) due to anxieties among individuals who normally would use paper currency for their trades. The anxieties reach panic levels for some reason -- as they often do, and we have a surge in gold lease rates -- because the reserves of available gold are not enough to cover all the currency trades desired.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:06 - ID#347267)
Real Estate
JTF: Did you catch the 3.5 Mill property advertised on CNBC with an 800 number only, no firm listed? ( BIIGGGG home on water with Yacht space, Pools, Maximum 24 hour security etc, etc, etc --- Think they may have waited 'bout a week too late to advertise? Only serious buyers, with CASH PULEEEZE!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:08 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' who woulda thunk it...
gulp and a puff at ya...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:08 - ID#210114)
Well..... a 300 point drop in the DOW and a $US 5 rise in the POG. Excitement a plenty here at Kitco.

Am delighted to see a rally of any sort, but am yet to be convinced that the bear has been banished. One swallow doesn't make a summer.

Let's see what's happening in a month's time. Gold must get above $US300 and stay there.

Reminder; I am long on gold. Yesterday a predicted a further fall to $US 278. It still could happen. But I will will be absolutely delighted if I am wrong.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:09 - ID#34857)
Hey, BART! - What's with K-2? You want us to use it or not?!?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:09 - ID#20167)
The test is positive
Geraldo Rivera just reported that monica's dress tested positive for DNA
Now the next step is to find the dirty dick that put it there. Any guesses as to who it could be?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:12 - ID#251238)
Armstrong says gold & commodities will rally with dollar
He is calling for 23% correction in big caps, 50% in high tech stocks and a wopping 40% in European stock markets. Interesting contrary view on commodities. If dollar rallies, then commodities rise in other currencies and eventually non dollar investors begin to see bull market and buy. He warns initially people sell the first rallies so we could still have deflation for 1 more year then bull market. Bonds rally into next year then crash. Certainly not the normal view on the street. Not sure what to make of it but after checking 1987 I found gold rallied briefly following 1987 crash then quickly collapsed after 8 weeks. The gold rally during the crash reached $500 and began new bear market. Gold went down when Nikkei crashed in 1989. Could not even find a spike high. When Nikkei crashed, does anybody know was there big Japanese selling because they needed cash? If so does this mean Europe will be a seller if their stock markets drop 40%?

see: Commodities, dollar & Economic Confidence Model

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:13 - ID#290232)
The convergence
It's all coming togather

1. Asia financial crisis
2. Clinton crisis
3. The national debt
4. An overvalued stock market
5. Y2K Looming
6. Companies no longer finding justification to upgrade with Intels
latest and greatest ( How many hundreds of mhz does the
secretary need to do word processing?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:14 - ID#57232)
A good balloonist joke from a friend of mine
A man is flying in a hot air balloon and realises he is lost. He
reduces height and spots a man down below. He lowers the
balloon further and shouts: "Excuse me, can you tell me
where I am?"

The man below says: "Yes you're in a hot air balloon, hovering
30 feet above this field."

"You must work in Information Technology" says the balloonist.

"I do" replies the man. "How did you know."

"Well" says the balloonist, "everything you have told me is
technically correct, but it's no use to anyone."

The man below says "You must be in upper managment in some

"I am" replies the balloonist, "but how did you know?"

"Well", says the man, "you don't know where you are, or where
you're going, but you expect me to be able to help. You're in
the same position you were before we met, but now it's my fault."

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:15 - ID#28994)
Last winter we were saying gold had to crack 300 to start its move up, it did and then it didn't.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:16 - ID#401460)

Looks like the drop in Gold, don't it?


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:16 - ID#288369)
@AYORK...What a waste of DNA!
Chelsea could have had a half-brother or a half-sister.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:17 - ID#411440)
@ JTF: yes that would account for the pattern, but one need not
understand why the pattern exists in order to recognize it and
take advantage. Bart is posting only PGM lease rates. I feel

Certainly for both gold and silver, the surge in demand first shows
up in lease rates, then in spot price. Commercials have been long
for quite a while in gold, and maybe they have stockpiled enough
this time, that we are seeing only a short squeeze spike. If this
is the case, lease rates might not be affected short term.

I think for this to be the start of the new Bull, lease rates must
go above 1% and steeply.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:18 - ID#401460)
Yen & Gold

Forgot this!
This does - the last 12+ months.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:19 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated
Still no bottom in sight.
But well overdue for a bounce.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:22 - ID#227238)
Dec gold +$1.30 @ $293.80. .... The Ozzies don't got no more gold to sell.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:22 - ID#421269)
@ Studio R
Gold up $5.00 and my CAU -25% , I think I"m gonna be sick.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:24 - ID#412286)
Is the stock market down move.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:24 - ID#411201)
from financial assets to hard assets appears shaping up but still need confirmations to POG over $300 ( and holding ) but remember grasshoppers the first move is usually the is as good as any to launch...rejoice bugs, things could change wed, or not........

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:24 - ID#341312)
Will the REAL Goldbugs please stand up?
Apparently there aren't as many paper-haters here as one might surmise given some of the rhetoric. Physical metal accounted for a whopping 18.75% of the survey total with various forms of paper making up the vast majority of the remainder ( notable exception:diesel generators ) . So Kitcoites prefer paper 4 to 1 over metal. Guess I'm more of a goldbug than I thought with roughly 2 parts physical metal to 1 part paper. Why? No, Y2K. Adios, fiat currency. Goodbye, Big Brother. CUL8R welfare state. Well, actually, they might not totally disappear but governments and corporations alike are going to have about as much credibility worldwide in the summer of 2000 as there will be canned goods and batteries left on supermarket shelves on Dec 31, 1999. Cory Hamasaki of DC WRP fame says the "word on the street" among DC geeks is the Wall Street Y2K test was a DISASTER, happy-face press reports notwithstanding. If this turns out to be true and it becomes public knowledge today's little stock market blip will seem like the good old days to the mutual funds and their victims, oops, customers. Also, embedded systems failures are happening in testing even among those chips that don't need or use the date for their functions. Not always, of course, but the old "if they don't need dates they don't know what time it is and all will be well, la, la, la," argument has joined the "Bill Gates Silver Bullet" and "We'll all be ready by 12/31/98 to allow a full year for testing" theories on the Y2K Flaming Death Train to Club Dead. ( Phrase courtesy of Paul Milne "fedinfo" on ) . Now, I'm not as pessimistic as Mr. Milne ( nor as knowledgeable, for that matter ) but c'mon guys, BUY THE PHYSICAL. Some canned food, medicine, thermal underwear, and food for Mr. 12 gauge might be prudent as well. Just in case, you know.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:25 - ID#57232)
Maybe Chelsea already does!
Studio R.: I wondered about that. What if Monica L. was really devious and donated WJC's sperm to a sperm bank? She could get him tied up in a paternity suit! And -- after all these years he thinks he has been careful, too! Surprise!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:26 - ID#210114)
Reminder: This is what I said last winter ( US time ) and now

"Let's see what's happening in a month's time. Gold must get above $US300 AND STAY THERE."

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:27 - ID#412172)
EJ congratulations,
on your 300 point call. I always say you have to be good to be lucky!
Now, how about tomorrow....when you're hot you're HOT!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:29 - ID#288369)
@Isure......of what?
Uh oh........I didn't want to mention my AZC....uh, down 20% today. Cash on hand $17,000,000., market cap. $12,500,000. Were we brothers in an earlier life?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:31 - ID#348286)
@Eh cANADA, where's the beef (Gold)
Tuesday August 4, 8:58 pm Eastern Time

Canadian stocks hit six-month lows, no end seen

By Sarah Edmonds

TORONTO, Aug 4 ( Reuters ) - There seems no end in sight for the woes of the Toronto stock market, which on Tuesday hit lows not seen since the end of January.

Toronto's bellwether TSE 300 Composite Index reeled from the one-two punch of weaker U.S. shares and a battered Canadian dollar, falling 227.10 points or 3.28 points to close at 6704.33.

It has fallen 1131.42 points, or 14.4 percent, from its April high of 7835.75.

A 20-week slide by Canada's dollar and battered commodity prices have been the main bogeymen frightening investors out of the Canadian market. And now the outlook for the domestic economy, one of the few bright spots on the local stock scene, is looking bleaker.

Calling growth of 3.7 percent set in 1997 an ``unsustainable pace,'' a private research foundation said concern over interest rates and the Canadian dollar will slow the country's growth to 3.1 percent in 1998 and 2.7 percent in 1999.

``The 175-basis point hike in short-term interest rates over the past year will hurt durable consumption and housing,'' the Conference Board of Canada said in the summer issue of its Canadian Outlook.

Analysts believe it will take a significant piece of good news out of Asia or a fundamental shift in commodity prices to restore lost investor confidence. The value of the Canadian dollar is inextricably tied to commodity prices.

``We need obviously some decisive news that will put people on a more confident basis,'' said Irwin Michael, portfolio manager at ABC Funds.

``I don't know what it's to be. Maybe it's the Japanese taking a very firm stand on what they have to do, the U.S. dollar maybe weakening. The dollar has been very firm and as the U.S. dollar goes against the yen, gold goes the opposite and commodities go the opposite way.'' --- Duhh!

Perversely, lower commodity prices are helping the U.S. Federal Reserve maintain an ideal falling inflation-growing economy scenario, said one analyst. If commodity prices were strong, rising real wages in the United States would make inflation a genuine problem.

But the weak energy and metals prices conspiring to help the Fed are proving disastrous for both the Canadian dollar and the resource-heavy Toronto stock market.

The Canadian dollar sank to a new trading low of C$1.5163 or US$0.6595.

The dollar's decline may prove painful for corporate Canada in a way analysts are just beginning to understand, Michael said. Canadian companies with large issues of U.S.-denominated debt may have a tough time paying it back.

``A lot of people are doing research now on Canadian companies' debt, particularly in U.S. dollars, to see how vulnerable they are. If you've borrowed in U.S., you've got to pay it back -- with the dollar through a buck fifty, you could be vulnerable,'' Michael said.

Although fears that the Bank of Canada could hike interest rates to defend the battered currency, which has been hitting new lows against the U.S. dollar almost daily for more than three weeks, hurt bank stocks on Tuesday, many observers think the bank cannot risk a rate rise.

``We're bound to be under pressure as the U.S. tries to extend the economic cycle and at the same time we can't raise interest rates to defend the currency,'' said ScotiaMcLeod Inc. market strategist Peter Gibson.

``If they were to raise interest rates significantly from here to defend the dollar then they are going to bury the consumer and they might even cause deflation in Canada and that is a scary thought.''

Gibson said he believes the market's woes are being caused by the gap between the planned ``soft-landing'' slowdown in the North American economy and the eventual fall in U.S. interest rates.

``There is a delay before the rate structure falls. That delay goes hand-in-hand with a lot of fear and trepidation in the stock market. I shouldn't be surprising but even I find this unsettling,'' he added.

Gibson said he would not rule out a 20 percent correction in the TSE 300, which would mark a true stock market recession.

( $1 equals $1.52 Canadian )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:34 - ID#288369)
Clitton's DNA is spread around more than Jerry Lee Lewis's! salud!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:35 - ID#267344)
Anyone watching the INT'L markets?
There seems to be some momentum in this slide...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:36 - ID#43349)
Did anyone see what the COMEX warehouse stocks of gold and silver did today?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:36 - ID#411201)
got CAU too...don't worry, great properties, just financed out so far into the future they will be a 'late bloomer' when up cycle is finally and firmly established...pain temporary.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:36 - ID#426220)

Gold is UP Yen14/gram to Yen1336 in Tokyo Gold Pits Wednesday August 5.

See the following URL -- delete the "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:37 - ID#401460)
What a Sleaze!

One stray travelers check, purchased in Indonesia, was cashed at the White House Federal Credit Union!


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:39 - ID#348286)
@HEY, a PM update from USAGOLD, haven't seen that in a while......
MARKET UPDATE ( 8/4/98 PM ) : Gold staged a strong rally today as the DOW plummeted nearly 300 points in its third biggest single day loss in history. Both gold and the DOW were reacting to a flurry of negative news -- the on-going problems in Asia, the developing situation with the Clinton White House ( with rumors now circulating that there's much more to the Starr investigation than the Lewinsky sex scandal ) , a breakdown in the the arms inspection in Iraq which could tighten oil supplies, and the general perception among investors that we are in some kind of turning point framework in all markets where just about anything could happen. Dinsa Mehta commodities director for Chase Manhattan, quoted by Reuters this afternoon, summed things up: "Gold showed good ability to bounce from levels close to its marginal cost of production, with only a little help from a weaker U.S. dollar. With the stock market correcting and gold near 18 year lows, getting into gold is a relatively low risk trade now." This sentiment is one held by many. In short, gold looks like an undervalued asset which should be bought; stocks look like over-valued assets which should be sold. The rally in gold began with short covering early in the day and then picked up steam as the stock market suddenly weakened. The two seemed to move in concert -- one up; the other down -- all day. The disturbing thing about the stock market plunge for the bulls is that every time the stock market rallied somebody was selling into it. On the other hand, whenever gold weakened somebody was buying. This may carry over to tomorrow. We shall see......... Gold buyers looking for a place of entry might consider getting serious. It looks like public sentiment could be turning in favor of gold. We'll know more tomorrow. I just wanted to get something posted asap because I knew we'd be getting quite a few visitors this afternoon and tonight. We'll have more for you tomorrow. In the meantime, in a few hours the markets in Asia should be opening. It will be interesting to see how they react to what happened on Wall Street today.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:40 - ID#240248)
Will_A Tapping the Groups Knowledge

Can any of you seasoned gold traders tell me if it is possible to obtain a certificate of ownership or any form of physical proof of purchase of a gold futures option? I know I have the trade docs from the brokerage firm but was wondering if anything else is available.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:42 - ID#43349)
Are you there? Here's the rally you were looking for.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:43 - ID#268404)
feeling better
Now I feel much better about the yellow metal, my friends Downunder are buying it too........

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:44 - ID#267344)
fiveliter, I shall stand.
I am four parts boat, three parts physical metal, two parts supplies, one part cash. However I do not claim to be a gold bug, for I have been dubbed a gold-dude.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:44 - ID#348286)
Bid Ask Change from New York
289.80 290.20 +1.60

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:44 - ID#28994)
Mo Re Go Ltd
I hope the R.O.R. reads your 21.31 so he can see socialism at it's finest.
Up there in cANADA ..Eh.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:45 - ID#401460)
FBI - Director Louis Freeh

Speaking on C-Span.
Reno next!


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:45 - ID#342376)
crazytimes (Does anyone know when Anglogold will trade on NYSE?) ID#342376:

'What's next? Possibly a lion on Wednesday morning for the listing of
Anglogold of South Africa. The idea is to have the 8-foot-long beast prowl the balcony with Grasso at the opening. But a publicist confides that there's a chance they won't be given a permit.'

Bread and circuses I guess.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:46 - ID#373284)
flipping channels on the tube, came across some clown who has a solid gold
and jewel filled monopoly board...the dice are solid gold with diamonds and even the money is made of sheets of gold...

ah, ya...and we think we are gold bugs...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:47 - ID#412172)
PDG shows a hammer,
on the daily and weekly candlestick charts. I bought some today, my first gold stock since May. Goldman upgraded it last week to market outperform, not that I put much stock in their opinion but it doesn't hurt. Would like to hear other chart opinions or anyone else that follows this stock. TIA. Go GOLD!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:49 - ID#255190)
1,000,000 allocation

25% in physical gold w/ puts to hedge
25% in physical silver w/ puts to hedge
5% puts in OEX with furthest out date
5% puts in OEX closer date
10% to purchase and stock 'a little place in the country' to deal with the Y2K thingie
5% dmark calls with furthest out date
5% Yen calls with furthest out date
10% small denomination US currency

US bonds are a bad deal now. WB sold because interest rates WILL rise as people try to exit the US markets and go back to their respective currencies ( notice Dmark strength ) . The T-bill rates are being lowered by money fleeing the equities right now. But when things look obviously worse they will cut and run with the dollar falling and rates rising. I wouldn't own a bond here.

The OEX puts are a cheap way to play the possibility of failure in the markets without outright shorting. Might as well make money where one can.

The PM puts as hedge, just in case. Currency calls in case someone survives better then we do. And ya gotta live somewhere, eh?

Own what you own. Have what you have. Cash or PMs. Y2K will play havoc. Latest news is risk analyst says US banks are pulling what they can out of world markets in anticipation of Y2K failure. There is no way they can 'insure' exposure during the roll over period. They are targeting Dec 1999 through Mar 2000 as having to cut off ALL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL EXPOSURES. If this turns out to be even half true then we are headed into amazingly fridged waters my friends.

This from a person who knows and is saying this stuff publicly. Connect the dots. No capital exposure means the death of international commerce. No international commerce means worse than the 1930's, then Y2K and EMU in this bad mix. We are done.

We are in the beginning of very hard time. Do have your life vests and blankets handy.

Take care and Godspeed.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:49 - ID#43349)
I don't like the looks of this....

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:49 - ID#411259)
..... PH and Numbers .....

I too, want to waste no K1 bandwidth on the F spot, but we will all agree that his behavior here was despicable, yes? Please stand up and be counted if you agree with the tone, style, and content of the famous F spot meltdown. So we are agreed, yes? He acted in the most reprehensible manner.

He says he is sorry, but then he says, "As it turns out, I had a very busy July so my excommunication from K-1 was quite beneficial." This is how he feels about his horrid actions, "quite beneficial"

This would not have even turned my head were it not for the fact that the first thing he did, was to blame it on me. More outrageous, he attempted to equate his mad rantings with me. As most will agree, I can be relentless, but never has anything I have ever written here even approached the despicable nature of the F spot posts

In F spots words of two days ago.

" contrived rant was "over the top." I simply got tired of being an incessant target of abuse and felt my little impression of RJ going berserk would resonate with K-1.

He promises he will make nice, and promptly says his total breakdown was just an imitation of me. People may wish to believe that I am out of control, but read the words. This is precision firing. I know exactly what I am doing and taking farfel to task for the gross insult of equating my posts with his ravings was needed. I was not the man to do it though. I simply retired and a masked rider appeared. This rider simply showed the F spot for what he is. All in the F spots own words. This would seem to be a different approach that swearing and slurring a persons race and family as farfel is wont to do.

PH in LA

you said I ran off ANOTHER? I think you have me confused with somebody else. I posted a couple times that the game was amusing, but I had zero problem with ANOTHER. I just thought the people who blindly followed him were nave, to say the least. Most of what I ever said concerning ANOTHER ( which was precious little ) was directed at those who believed this 30K gold thingie. I had nothing to do with his disappearance, and you cannot demonstrate otherwise. I would appreciate a retract of that portion at least. I cannot even recall a single post I ever made to ANOTHER. I do recall that he made a claim that I was speaking for my company on these pages. I and others posted that it is clear that what I post here is my opinion only.

Can you please tell me why you wrote that I was so bad to him? I was derisive to the story, and still am today. Come on. a Saudi prince whose English goes from perfect to bad to worse to bad to perfect. The little catchy phrases. The story lacked verisamilitude.I will say on the record here. Anybody who buys into the ANOTHER story truly deserves what he gets.

It would also seem that F spot, ANOTHER and mucho others are the very same people that reinforced the mistaken belief that gold would go up. There may be hundreds, or thousands here who bought gold because of charlatans like that, and they are all losers. 100% losers. ( Not the people, the investments )

I went into minute detail about why gold would fall, how far it would fall, when it would stop falling, and what it would do next. It all happened exactly the way I said it would months in advance. Why do people listen to those who loose them money, and yell at those who could not only have made them money, but prevented terrible losses? Anybody who stayed away from gold, or sold short based on reading my words, is today in a far better position than those who didnt. So why are you mad at me? I didnt make gold go down, but I sure warned everybody here way way way in advance.

Now for a math lessen:

Lets say that one pays carry costs ( interest, storage, insurance ) of about 1 percent a month, yes? That is 12% per year, correcto? OK The interest is a 100% write off against capital gains ( as are commissions ) and since this is a short term trade, the tax rate is 28%. OK now .12 x .72 = .0864, or eight and two thirds percent. Divide that by 12 months to come up with a monthly carry cost of about .0072, that is less than  of 1% per month. Since most trades are designed to get out of within 30 to 90 days - although you can get stuck sometimes longer, but thats the market.

Now lets look at money. Say you have 100K and you would like to buy 100K of gold and you pay for it in cash and have it shipped to you. Check into shipping, but you will have to pay at least about a dollar and a half per ounce to ship and insure gold. Since you must also ship the metal back, if you choose to sell and take profit, you must again pay shipping, so let add $3 per ounce to the cost of gold. If you intention is to keep the gold, you would not have used leverage in the first place, so all who do are speculating, yes?

Now, if you instead put up only 20K and we put up the other 80K, you will pay for the use of someone elses money. What will you pay? Well we have already discovered that the after tax rate in this example is 8.64% per year. Can you take 80K in cash and go out there in this big beautiful world and find at least 10% on it? If so, then you are a net 1.36% ahead of the game every month. This is with the use 80K of somebody elses money. Hell you can put it in a CD and get 6% so the effective carry cost would now dip to 2.64%, yes? If you say you cant get 6% on your money, send it to me, we currently pay 6.5% in interest for liquid cash. So the interest is well manageable, yes?

Oh, there is that whole eggs in one basket thingie. If you have 100K in gold, the money can not be used to for another investment, right? Even if one lost all 20K because gold took a dive, the other 80 is somewhere else, hopefully not suffering as your gold is.

You wrote:
"Let's say a client buys 10,000 ozs of silver at $4.50 and borrows 80% of the money to do so. Silver starts climbing. At $7.00 the client still owes the same $36,000. Wouldn't it be much better if you could get him to owe interest on $56,000 instead? With the insurance that if the price declined enough to trap him there he would have to keep paying interest until he could get back out again?"

Firstly the sentence in a non sequitur but I think I get the idea of what you are trying to convey. So lets use your numbers, yes? By the way, spreads and commissions must be figured into costs, but these are the same whether you buy for delivery or leverage so they cancel each other out.

The client has $45K worth of silver that he put about 9K down to start. Lets look at a 90 day trade ( an eternity in these markets, but I am trying to be fair to you ) Lets also forget the tax write off on the interest and go with a flat 1% per month. This way I dont have to compound and I am still being more than generous. 36K x 3% = $1080. Since the silver originally costs 45K and it is now worth 70K. Subtract the account balance of $37,080, you now have a 32,920 Net profit! Again these figures do not include spreads or commissions but these are paid wheat you leverage or take delivery. So you put up 9K to make nearly 33K or a 366% profit on your investment. The only difference with the leverage is that you didnt pay the $1080 in carry costs for three months. But just a dime rise in the price of silver pays all that for you, yes?

I would like to expand on this and address some of your other points, but Ive got a softball game to go to. One more thing though. You seemed to think I am trying to be Daddy of this site. Why are you even involved with the discussion between F spot and others? You seem to be trying to exercise some sort of policing action yourself there, fella. To what point? F spot attacked me personally. This has nothing to do with you. Why are you mixed up in it? If you are not upset about the horrible things he said to you, I admire you. But the first thing he did on his return was to attack me again.

I like you, I have no problems with you whatsoever. But I will have to shred your numbers further when I get back. This is not personal, but numbers are universal, they do not lie. Feel free to come up with some of your own, we will have fun with numbers. I do acquit myself with some competence with words, or so I am told, but numbers are what I do for a living. Most of the time I dont even need the calculator. I love numbers. Lets talk numbers.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:52 - ID#93241)
Studio.R 21:34
Whaaa? Clinton's been doin' it with his cousin. You heard here at Kitco before you heard it anywhere else....

(Tue Aug 04 1998 21:52 - ID#421269)
@ Rosk
Hope you right, bought more today at 3/8.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:02 - ID#257344)
one year
One year ago today an event happened that resulted in me joining forces with a few other Kitcoites to form a company most of you know by name. Today that company is producing gold from its Alaska placer operation while its compatriots in the business are trying to survive bankruptcy. With today's slight downtick in the Dow and bottom in gold, am I glad I have walked down this tortuous path the past year? Hell yes! Oh, if you don't know the name of the company, visit Steve Kaplan's site. Thanks Kitocites, you know who you are!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:02 - ID#93241)
fiveliter 21:24
...I'm standing.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:05 - ID#219363)
Looks like a few ups, but mostly one and two percent losses so far. Not exactly a tank by any means, but kinda ugly, could get uglier.

It's weird, we're used to seeing losses like that in Asia - but we ( the US ) have a 3-4 percent off day and it's big news! *grin*. We're so used to seeing a 1-2 percent loss in Asia nobody even notices anymore.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:09 - ID#251238)
HK down 250, Niki down 150, Aussie down 55+
Looks like if Asia closes near lows, could be bloodbath in Europe.
Cash bullion dealer says he sees selling in gold & no strong bids
as yet. He would not get excited unless Dec goes above $297. Word is Goldman Sacks is trying to run stops on upside after they just ran them on the downside. Precter looking for real bad 4th quarter in stocks but no change in gold outlook.

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:16 - ID#259282)
Gee Whiz! I guess I'll have to do my homework or Disney will
embarrass me again . Thankyou for humbling me. Crow is a little like chicken. YES? Was Ezra really from Idaho? Dead... ? I taught she was Heng-lish?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:18 - ID#219363)
Why the dmark and the Yen specifically ? Do they have the most ground to gain back from the $US and the most potential to go the distance ?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:18 - ID#43349)
And miles to go before we are home....
Despite a fall of almost 300 points ont the DOW following a week of successive lows ( what did it lose last week, 400? ) and slight weakening of the dollar, gold was not able to break 290. Silver couldn't break 5.449. Both have weakened noticeably in continuing overnight trade.

The firming of the yen has diminished the probability of another US/BOJ intervention for the moment.

Silver stocks were unchanged on the COMEX today.

The DOW took a blow on the chin today, but it can take a punch. It is reeling and another punch or two may put it down.

But it's not down yet.

Let's keep our finger on the trigger for awhile yet.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:20 - ID#349183)
@Thanks to all of you!
My wife and I decided to get out of equities weeks ago...

Y2K, Klinton ( Clintler? ) , US debt ( govt ) , US debt ( consumer ) , derivatives,
Asia problems, market greed, P/E ratios, fractional reserve banking, IMF,
United Nations, inflation ( what inflation? - HA! ) , increasing bankruptcies,
endless credit card debt, the Euro, need I go on? No.

And so we pulled out, plugged into PMs ( physical ) , and found Kitco.

It's truly a joy to read you all each day. I have learned more in these
last 2 months about investing, markets, and PMs than any book could have ever taught me ( thanks to your real-world storys and wisdom ) .

So today, while those around me groaned with pain as they saw their year-to-date gains evaporate, I quietly snickered at them...
The truth is all around them, but they won't listen to anything but "up Up UP!"

Kitco is a voice of rationality in the wilderness.
And I'm glad I'm out here with you all, and not over yonder sinking into the equities pit with the herd.

Best Regards,

MG. ( Go Gold! Go Silver! See-Ya-Later equities! )

PS. What's in store for tomorrow? Anyone care to hazard a guess?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:23 - ID#401460)
NO Yr2K Insurance!
Tuesday August 4, 6:44 pm Eastern Time

Insurance Cos. Seek 2000 Exclusions

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Hoping to head off billions of dollars worth of litigation, the insurance industry has asked regulators for permission to exclude businesses' Year 2000 losses from their commercial liability policies.

The Insurance Services Office, a company that helps insurers deal with regulatory issues, has received permission from 46 states for insurance companies to deny Year 2000 claims.

Six lawsuits, including four class actions, have already been filed against software companies including Intuit Inc. ( Nasdaq:INTU - news ) , maker of Quicken home finance software, and Symantec ( Nasdaq:SYMC - news ) , Corp., which makes software that helps computer users perform various file management tasks. They allege the companies knowingly sold software that would not work in the year 2000.

In an action that would be similar to tobacco lawsuits, attorneys general in several states are considering suing software companies to recoup the cost of fixing Year 2000 problems.

At least one insurer, the American International Group Inc. ( NYSE:AIG - news ) , is selling, for an extra premium, up to $50 million of Year 2000 coverage as part of some policies that shield officers and directors of a company that is sued.

AIG wouldn't say how much the coverage costs. But analysts outside the industry said it was prohibitively expensive, and that AIG will require policyholders to demonstrate that they have taken steps to try to correct the computer problem.

Remeber post from a couple of months back where AIG is part of the Rubin/Rockefeller team Boeing backing the IMF funding to Asia and everywhere else. Big brother is cashing in on Yr2K.


PS: I am sorry If this was posted earlier.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:24 - ID#28781)
follow-up from yesterday's comments

The April - July downtrend on gold has not been broken, need to move above 296. The bounce today on some of the gold stocks was encouraging and goes a long way toward lowering the probability of an acceleration to the downside as discussed yesterday. On the 5 minute bar chart the XAU completed a wave four of small degree today and looks like it needs to re-test and work lower first before any meaningful test of a break-out can occur.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:27 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Are we having fun yet?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:32 - ID#45173)
Whuzzamatta? Don't like the looks of overnight silver?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:32 - ID#43349)
@Mountain Goat
What's for tomorrow? Good question. At the end of the day the DOW was accelerating down, so I expect some csrryover into tomorrow morning from accumulated sell orders that didn't make the floor today.

Gold and silver both retreated from heavy resistance just before the close, but that was before the real sell off in stocks. They rose a little in early overnight trade since then but again hit resistance. I think the early morning hours before the NY open are going to tell the story here.

If nothing too unusual happens with the yen tonight ( forget what the foreign equity markets do, they are just the reacting to today's DOW. They are the tail, not the dog ) . I suspect the early morning selloff will be hit by the dipsters.

I hope we get some action tonight, or the sell off tomorrow in PM stocks will not be pretty.

The Hatt
(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:33 - ID#294232)
Talking Heads at CNBC Working Overtime!
The comment was made today that the talking heads donot care which way the markets move and they are only there to report on the markets! It was called a cover thy ass type of statement! They even went as far to say that they are under contract and are not permitted to be in the markets personally... I have said from day one that a civil lawsuit would be possible due to the biased reporting done by these people and donot be surprised if this statement was dropped onto the air by the legal department! Their popularity is about to take a nosedive as investors finally wake up to the fact that this is nothing more than another source of spin at its finest.......... Gold is about to shine as the holders of paper learn the true definition of downside risk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:35 - ID#43349)
It's late for me.
I hope to wake up tomorrow and see that we can party on. I will make sure I have my brokers phone number with me. I just don't know whether to call him on the red phone or the green phone yet.

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:35 - ID#259282)
Wish it was good. My wifes equities are going down and my gold and resources are going down.
Good thing I can cut a lot of firewood. 75 dollars a face cord Can nnnnoooo U.S.!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:38 - ID#280214)
CoolJing's 19:25, Envy's 18:50
Allocation of the windfall:
40% Hardened Bunker
20% Off-grid equipment
15% Food
10% Guns & Ammo
6% Gold & Silver
4% Fuel
3% Clothing
2% Supplies ( TP, etc. )

Current Allocation of survival stuff
40% Food
35% Guns & Ammo
10% Off-grid Equipment
6% Clothing
5% Supplies ( TP, Soap, etc. )
4% Gold & Silver

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:42 - ID#434179)
Help find my missing daughter !!!
Her name is Goldilocks and she was playing with a cute little baby bear.... has anyone heard, or seen her lately????

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:44 - ID#43349)
I think we need to see at least 5.51 spot tonight for me to feel happy about silver. It's too weak relative to gold. And gold would makae me feel a little better if it would get through about 291.

We're stalling out and sucking air. Hang on.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:46 - ID#57232)
Best indicator of y2k risk -- no insurance!
Highrise: Those that doubt that y2k has a real likelihood to come around and bite us, should take heed! The risk calculators are the insurance companies. Wonder what Lloyd's of London is doing!
On a more broad perspective, y2k is not the only problem looming ahead in the murky mists of the future. We have a rising sunspot pattern, which is likely to generate big solar flares in about a year -- just in time for y2k. Last time was about 11 years ago when we were less computer dependent. We also have the world-wide derivative problem - mostly unregulated, doubling every two years last I looked, with open trades topping 100 trillion. Black-Scholes -- see what you did! We now not only are dependent on computers for virtually everything, can't get risk insurance from the insurance companies - due to y2k, and the very act of using computerized financial risk insurance ( derivatives ) is increasing risk.
Lastly, WJC's star seems to be falling, and we have deflating currency crises materializing all over the world. So -- the way I see it, y2k is only part of what we face.
How do we deal with all of these threats from multiple sources? Easy -- just be a typical kitcoite. But try to keep your powder dry, because the fiat currency addicts are still trying to dump on gold. As Armstrong puts it, there may be a deflationary period before gold really shines. So -- beware if gold rallies -- it may be temporary for a time.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:47 - ID#280214)
Gotta take care of the foundation first
Gold & Silver for me are the top of the pyramid.
The basics to preserve life are the rest of the pyramid.
This is unlike
the typical investment pyramids
which have Gold & Silver on the bottom.
( I should be so lucky as to build beyond Gold & Silver. )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:51 - ID#257136)
blooper I have learned a modicum from your posts.
yours of 20:02 nonplussed me, however.

Do you feel that folks who hold guns as well as gold are subversive?

I hold enough of both to do me, and I have never done a subversive act in my life.
I have, however, confronted the tiger ( USG ) in its lair.

Gotta admit I came out 2nd best by over 2 mill. But our deal was done face to face!
Nothing out of sight and none from behind a moniker.
That was then and this is now.
I sure hope you are not a paper Patriot for profit.

The subject post has really confused my image of you.
Please set me straight, will you?

From an armed non-subversive Patriot!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:52 - ID#57232)
Robert Frost
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.

Just like the gold market -- we saw a brief glimpse of the future today.
My guess is that the PPT will be in full regalia tomorrow - by midday at least. Got to let the air out slowly -- not too fast.

I like Robert Frost too. G'Nite all!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:54 - ID#249244)
The masses
Gold is not out of the woods yet but the exodus offically began today as the masses now begin thier flight to quality. They will exhaust all paper options first before they go for the GOLD.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:56 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

The only Fidelity sectors that showed a GAIN today were the Gold Sectors!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 22:57 - ID#31867)
Envy, Namaste' RE:your 22:05 Each and everyday I hoist a shot to the folks in
Asia and have been doing so for quite some time. Those folks are getting hammered...folks elsewhere as well...they do not go un-noticed my friend, and there are many here that worry about Jin and others who are living these events first hand...some here have family members, our news reports...

In fact, a giant gulp of Patron Tequila to all of them from the Island that is Long...

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:06 - ID#349183)
@Gold Purchasing by White Collars
Just an FYI:

Met another computer professional yesterday that's buying gold ( albeit in small amounts )

That makes 4 so far that I know of that have started buying just this year.

A small but good sign. Indeed.

Gollum: I'm guessing that on momentum alone equities will slide a bit more tomorrow.
I'd be sorry to see PMs drop, but not worried. They'll have their day, and I don't think that day will come for 2 more quarters.
Little ups, little downs, maybe even a 'goggled' 3-2-5 by 11/11 ( or whatever )
But 500? 800? I think things need to get REALLY crazy for that. And I'm in agreement with Squirrel that things WILL get that crazy. Soon, but hopefully not too soon; I've got things to stock up on yet!


MG. ( Go Gold! [in the long term] )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:08 - ID#280214)
My last allocation was for 100,000 (slipped on another decimal point
For the cool million
70% Farm with Hardened Farmhouse
10% Farm & Off-grid Equipment
5% Gold & Silver & PMs ( physical )
5% Food
4% Cash
3% Guns & Ammo
2% Supplies
1% Fuel

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:09 - ID#65118)
I was glad the Kitco gold users support group was there for me. Now I can almost smell the turnaround!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:11 - ID#219363)
I'm glad to see someone is keeping the light on for them. Looks like we might get a little first hand taste of it ourselves.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:12 - ID#31867)
a million dollars huh...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...first item for sure...
a stretch Humvee Limo with Aux fuel tanks...uh huh...

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:14 - ID#349183)
Ok... And for the next million?

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:21 - ID#25196)
Aussie Gold Stocks
A gold report from Down Under.Most stocks holding up well with Lihir at one stage up 16 cents.The overall market is taking a beating down some 55 points,but the gold stocks will be the fast trains from now on.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:21 - ID#29048)
I am here, back from a movie. This is indeed a nice move, but we are still within downward channels, aren't we? When spot gold breaks back above 310 I will demonstrate irrational exuberance. Until then....

Friends at work are oblivious. I showed a graph of the dow to various people dropping by the op center and only one guy spoke of moving money between funds. The herd isn't even aware of the pending storm.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:23 - ID#219363)
Awesome, I'll add you into the math and see what we end up with. Anybody else who wants to voice there allocation for a cool million $US, please do, I'll recalculate tomorrow sometime to see what "Kitco recommends".

Dag Squirrel, don't ya think 30K$US is a bit excessive for guns & ammo ? I mean, you can get an ingram for 500$US out of Shotgun ( c ) or a little bit more from one of the Class-4 dealers, or a good SVD for a couple of thousand. Of course, you'd have to pay a broker for inter-state, and you'd have to incorporate a small company to possess and still avoid loss of search and seizure rights. Not much though, only costs a coupla hundred bucks to incorporate a holding company.


You guys thought I didn't know about all that did'n ya ...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:24 - ID#45173)
The market tomorrow will open down, as Gollum says. I'm not sure what it will do in the middle, but it will close down further in the end. I won't try to guess by how much until mid-morning.

Long range I expect that over the next year and a half the market will trend down, with sporatic rallies, until it reaches around 4000 - 4500 by Dec. 1999. The market is being driven down by the expectation of worse news than it's seen already, and it will get worse news, except the news will be worse than the worst news it expects. This will go on and on, and folks will get pessimistic and begin to miss the good news when it arrives, just as they have for the past year ignored the bad news, until recently.

Gold will not rise until the dollars falls, and the dollar will only fall if the US markets deteriorate more relative to other markets.


(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:25 - ID#431263)
G'Day Mate and thanks for the cheery news about LIHIR! Sounds like things are finally beginning to turn around for the GOOD GUYS!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:27 - ID#57232)
Stretch HumVee!
MountainGoat, tol1: I think it would need one of those airborne refuelers. Do they make those stratocruisers in Sikorsky lifting mode?
I think the low profile, $2k or less pickup or 4x4 ( well maintained ) might be less conspicous. And -- probably more within the average Kitcoite's grasp.
I think we should not forget that the world does not end at some time in the future, and we all become isolated survivalists. Civilization and all of its trappings will remain in the small towns all across the US, where barter and helping one another is already a way of life.
Just how many of our ancestors were isolated homesteaders, fending off the Indians, and how many found refuge in circled wagons and forts? I think ones survival expectancy is still much better in groups than in isolation. But -- you must carefully choose with whom you share your expertise.

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:27 - ID#286224)
Question for Canadians about pruchasing Gold Coins/ Bars
I have a Canadian friend who would liek to start buying small amounts of bullion or small ( 1/10oz? ) bullion coins.

Is there GST on coins?
Is there GST on Bullion?
Is there still a bank that sells bullion? There used to be.
Is there the same reporting requiremant as in the States?

Could someone e-mail me with some recommended coin dealers please.
Any particular Canadian shopping tips?


..Steven ( )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:37 - ID#31867)
Mountain Goat, Namaste' gulp to ya...Hmmmmmm, good point, o'tay, I'll stick with
the four door case of Patron, and one of Cuervo, 10 cases of Taddy Porter...10 titanium can openers...24 steel mixing glasses...

20 cases of Camel Filters...20 zippo lighters, 1 gallon of lighter fluid...a toaster that runs off the lighter and 1 case of pop-tarts...mixed flavors...1 tooth brush and three bottles of Crown Royal for brushing with...College issue of Playboy...Cheer Leader stuffed animal-Piglet...CD player...CD's-everything by Leo Kottkex2...Stevie Ray Vaughnx2...mix of STUDIO_Rx2...

10 New York Giants hats...I'll have to give the rest some thought...

Now this is for 1 month right...

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:40 - ID#430221)
To Gold & Silver& Platinum Bug
Sorry to disappoint you in your search for your daughter Goldilocks, but I am not she. Since I have an appended A, that would seem to indicate that there are more Goldilockses out there, however, so good luck. I like bears fine - nice creatures - but I must say as far as Gold is concerned I much prefer Bulls. Today was a fine beginning, though most of my gold stocks didn't do much and oil was a fair disaster - NEM did the best of anything I have. Am hoping some of my stuff will take off a bit tomorrow if we're lucky and gold continues to do its stuff. Keep up the good work Gollum. Goldilocks_A

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:43 - ID#190411)
so, EJ
Are you saying that a decent runup in goldshares should be sold?
I'm somewhat of that opinion. I'm way overloaded with them, and would like to sell half on a runup such as we had when XAU made 90+.
I'd like to see ABX make it over 20. Arf-Arf.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:46 - ID#349183)

Your list sounds ever so much more fun than Squirrel's!
Maybe we'll come stay with you when the lights go out!

Still giggling.

Anyway, goodnight, and Namaste to you.

( Have a friend from Nepal who taught me the proper way to do it, too. )
( The little bow, the tented hands, etc. )

MG. ( Go Leo Kottke! Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:50 - ID#431263)
Message from Michael is "PROTECT YOURSELF"! Raise cash and sit in a money market fund until the storm blows over! The idea that ma and pa won't eventually dump their mutual funds when they see how much they've lost during the last two weeks are just plain wrong! They will and are!

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:54 - ID#429121)
See what I mean?
Date: Tue Aug 04 1998 16:37
PH in LA ( Open letter to Farfel ) ID#225408:

Date: Tue Aug 04 1998 18:18
TYoung ( F*...keep posting on K-2...Gold...we will see ) ID#317193:

Have to agree with you two. Takes more than one for a food fight.

Used car salesmen are always right and they can never change. But they are ALWAYS right. Anything to make the sale. And they seldom, if ever, admit they are wrong...because they're always their own mind.

'Nuff said....

Retired Soldier - I may be going to Germany soon. A girlfriend is there for a tour at Ramstien - I need to visit before she PCSs back to the world. Been there before - lovely place, friendly people, for the most part. Loved the Autobahn - 250k/hr in the BMW. And the food and wine! Ahhh, Riesling ( Mosel-Saar-Ruwer ) Beeren-Auslese ( 1976er ) . Das ist gutt, jah? I gained 5 pounds in the two months I was TDY there. Perhaps we shall cross paths? If not, keep posting here... and good luck

(Tue Aug 04 1998 23:59 - ID#342397)
@Tolerant1, Supplies
No limes? No salt? No Tigger?
You are a purist.