But I need the absolutely latest population counts for about 10
different coins. Do these web sites or links to web sites have
the population reports? I thought they were only available by
subscription. If I am missing something, could you please direct
me exactly to the link that will give me recent population numbers.
TIA ( thanks in advance, not transient ischemic attack )

1 ) when the biggest owners ( CB ) have indicated by word and action that they no longer want the stuff and would if the fragile markets would bear it, unload many r`tons of the stuff.

2 ) When the main consumers in the third world have seen their currencies devastated and demand for a luxury like this is likely to drop.

3 ) When the producers are not going to let a simple thing like a drop in the price stop them from producing the stuff, even at a loss, as long as they can generate enough cash flow to pay he managers inflated salaries.

On the East Coast, the owner of the York's Bookstore in Houlton, Maine,
across the border from Woodstock, N.B., says Canadian business is down 90 per cent.

http://www.canoe.ca/TopStories/aug9_loonie.html

2 days - $2
325 - 11/11

But all my little voices say the US economy is heading due south soon.
For how long, maybe the Blooper knows.
When this happens, maybe the CB's will dump $US.
A third world flight to safety - PM's &
inefficient, desperate producers go BK.

I use solid gold investments for this scenario. I hope I'm right.

10 months normally. I would say mid 2000 would be a good place to start thinking about recovery. The recovery might take a year to a year and a half. My guess.

The Sunday Times business section reports that major UK travel agencies will not issue holiday packages which include flight dates of Dec 31, 1999 & Jan 1, 2000, citing safety concerns.

That we go into recession late 1st quarter, early second. 4th quarter will be mmuch,much better than we think.

La Te Da and La Te F*king De...^s^......GO GOLD!!!!!!!

? - Can you tell me when the $US has ever deflated? Ever?

We will be faced with rising commodities prices. Gold will be a good investment, because the world will recover at the same time. That will make it harder to get momentum. It could take up to 5 years.

Dollars were hard to come by in the depression. I remember the Eisenhower years were tough. I'm no expert, but there was't much inflation in dust bowl days or early 50s.

What really gets me is #3. It amazes me that the huge drop in price has yielded very little in the way of production cuts. It is just like the oil producers. I also remember when I kept hearing that at $320, half the gold production would be unprofitable. Then it was $300, then $280. Now we keep hearing about cash costs of $200 or less, whatever that means.

was defl;ationary. There was no demand for supply, since dollars were hard to come by. Most of Roosevelts attemts to reflate were sad failures.

Dear Puetz,

Do you remember how many times you predicted imminent crash scenarios last year?

How about some reminders to put things in perpective?

Here is one from November 9th 1997. There are many many more.

Date: Sun Nov 09 1997 00:32
Puetz ( @bpuetz.holli.com ) ID#222167:
I'm burned out for the night. I didn't get 1/2 of the things said I had hoped for. I'll try to finish sometime tomorrow. In any case, I'll read all comments and questions between now and then, and try to answer. If I've overlooked a question, repeat it, and I'll try to answer tomorrow.

I apologize for not answering all questions. I simply don't have time to. In any event, I agree with Nick -- the stock market will trend lower this week. When the DJIA breaks below the 6900-7100 support area, Katie bar the door. The greatest financial crash of all-time will have arrived!!!

I've been asking here about the repeated possibility of deflation.
Asking for some backup somewhere for this possibility. I've never
heard of $US deflation. Doesn't deflation mean an increase in the
value of fiat paper moneys.

I think that's incomprehensible, as fiat paper moneys are the way
that gommints have historically robbed citizens of their wealth, no?

to gain a firmer control over "ordinary people" He is an ordinary criminal.
Devoid of ethics. I think he has made a deal with the devil. Him and Daniel Webster.

Si Senoir. Decrease in supply results in valuation as opposed to devaluation.

No country will attempt to go back to a gold standard because they cannot control the supply ( manufacture ) . Governments want control ( power ) . Gold is therefor a commodity like soybeans. Prices affected by supply and demand. Gold and Silver coins are nice, but just a way for the governments to get rid of their gold and silver. No government wants to see the price fall rapidly, but they will all get rid of their stash eventually. They do not want the price of gold to get too high in their currency, for that would be a sure sign of inflation.

The most powerful governments' money will be the world's reserve currency
The forex will tell us which currencies rise and fall in relation to this reserve currency.

I saw a somewhat interesting collectable today. One of my relatives had written a letter to a minister in another city but didn't have his address so she didn't mail the letter. Later, she couldn't find the letter after she'd gotten the address and, well, she never did find it at the house. Turns out she had accidentally mixed the letter in with some bills she was mailing out, and she mailed it! To make a long story short, the letter went half-way across the state and was delivered to the minister with only his name on the envelope, no address. Strike one up for the US Postal service.

Because CBs need to drop rates. If a true indicator of inflation like gold was freed, rates would have to rise at a time when AG wants to lower them. He cant take that chance. It must be muzzeled.

I am skeptical about the view that CBs have a grudge against gold.
The large CBs don't sell but the smaller ones do. The argument has been made here that it is counter productive to announce a massive sale of a commodity which a CB holds when the predictable result is a decrease in the value of the remaining holdings. This has been generally interpreted as the visable action of a CB conspiracy against gold. However, I suspect that these CBs hold far more reserves as currency than as gold, and that they would rather take the hit on the gold asset and maintain the value of the currency asset. This explains why Australia/Canada/Belgiumj/etc., CBs sell gold - they have reached a point where they have no choice but to sell an asset and it is gold. This is why the strong CBs do not announce gold sales. It doesn't explain the Swiss announcements, but those have been the subject of better speculation here on Kitko than mine.

Gold will/may rise again, but not until the CB reserve currencies are worth less than the gold in their vaults and it is in their interest to revert to selling currencies rather than gold. Until then it is a thing to be used to advantage like leveraging via leasing. I don't think it is a conspiracy - just good business. The big CBs have such a large percentage of the gold above ground that if it ever does increase significantly in value they still win.

That is why the discussion tonight about deflation/inflation/stagflation is significant. IMHO

Go gold.

That's a bonfire to which I will bring some marshmellows!

Stay in cash, and play it safe. Some crap is comming down the shute, and I ain't gonna take a chance on anything. I'm going to stay low and cover my ass.

Come on guy, jump in there with a little bit of gambling money and join me in purchasing some way out-of-the-money 25$US puts tomorrow. Hell, what have we got to lose.

When have prices fallen for any substantial length of time?

Rubin wants out in the worst way. I don't like him, but he knows his business. Ag and Rubin will do alright. Who you gonna call?

I'd say it's a good bet on your part. Smartest thing I have heard all night.

Sell Sep DOW 9000 calls on any bounce tomorrow morning, I think. I started selling the Aug 9300 calls two weeks ago. The premiums are still reflective of a bull market, and expiration not too far away. Take a look. Should be happy trading this week for bears!

No puts on the Dollar. Maybe SP500

Bart would nix us all. ( Ghostbusters )

Puetz's Crash scenario is very similar to Prechter's scenario put out in last newsletter.

The weekly dow has made a clear 5 wave upmove from last october's low. The smaller indices ( Russel 2000, trannies ) have made 5 waves down off of April highs. The Dow having peaked later in July is quite possibly finishing wave 4 of a 5 wave downmove. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed make a new near-term low before starting a counter rally and then a likely crash.

In 1929 the dollar was fully convertible into gold. Cash was different then. I suspect that this time ( stockmarket crash ) cash dollars will initially rise in value, then when people start realising what is going to happen to govt revenue ( taxes ) versus spending ( printing dollars ) then the dollar should show weakness ( lose value ) .

These guys are buyin their buts off ( US$ )

This is where ya go Over the falls. Shorting the SP500 might not be a bad move. Hell, if I did it would go up 500 points.

Dear Puetz,

After highly publicizing the "mother of all crashes" for October 31st 1997, here are you your comments to justify the failure of your predictions. And of course, the Dow and the equity markets continued their relentless run-up to new highs... ( what panic phase began on October 15th??? )

There are many many more of these reminders.

Date: Sat Nov 01 1997 23:02
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
I've been unable to access postings for November 1st. On my menu, the day choices range from 2 to 31. For October 31st, I did notice LGB eas elated. LGB: Before you declare my defeat, you might also remember that I've been recommending December put option on the S&P 500. I'm still looking for a crash, and while the actual high occurred on August 6th, the panic-phase began October 15th. Based on previous crashes, October 31st was a good guess for the height of the panic.

It did not turn out that way. However, make no mistake about it. This stock market remains highly over-valued and grossly over-leveraged. A crash has started. And the bears will be the winners.

Silverthorn: I can't, I'm sitting in cash. This would be my first options purchase, and I've never sold. I do know better than trying to write options, much less write them uncovered. *grin*

Blooper: Same there, I don't know enough about currency trading to even gamble on that one. I'm probably going to purchase the puts against one of the indexes, that's something I can understand.

Yes. Puetz is probably right. You can't fault him for 97. Heck the market shouldda went down, but it diddnt. Foole me too. I agree about dollar.

I need to know more about high powered stuff begfore I jump in. I will be content to make 5 %, and avoid losing.

How about all through the 1930s. I've read of people who were well off before the crash in 29 having to sell their house for 1/4 of the price they paid for it 2 years later. Many people could'nt even pay their property taxes & lost their houses & farms even though they had clear title to them.

When the value of a country's currency rises, the price of its gold decreases. Prices declined significantly in the '30's

No offense, but this market was almost as big a joke last summer as this. I don't know Peutz. I do know a bloated pig when I see one. This porker will put the fear of the Lord in some hearts between now and November 1.

He notes arguments for both bullish and bearish market...and concludes: "So bottom line, we think there is more work to be done to the down side. However, the current [Thursday & Friday] bounce may have a day or two left in it. If we do get some continued rally, we think it will set up a good shorting opportunity."

CQG has current quotes DOW Sep 8610 -14, S&P Sep 10943A -.40, Gold Dec 290A -.50 and DOW Oct 9000 call option @ $2,145. If you have what men have that defines the glass ceiling, and if you think the market is going down, selling the call for $2,145 is a decent risk/reward. Standard Kitko disclaimer...the foregoing is not advice and probably totally wrong etc.

real money on them. There is nothing more frustrating than being right, but 1 day after your options expire.

One of the hardest exercises in this game is calling the dates right.
I know I have opened my mouth many times only to be proven wrong.
The nous and knowledge can be spot on but timing stuffs it all up.
Again and again.
That's trading I suppose.

I think that these great markets would have abated much earlier if they had been left to their own devices.
They should have done for the sake of peace and quiet and financial stability.
But for many reasons - financial and political - they haven't.

I can't help it if I call for a correction and pick the right price and time.
And then the PPT steps up and hits a home run.
Invests a few billion in the futures markets.
Supplies liquidity at that special moment.
Drives the market back from the precipice.

They have done it a few times before and no doubt will do it again.
And I will endeavour to call it as I see it and wear the consequences.
ASB

Most here agree that the markets are due for a major correction.
Many are watching and trying to pick the momentous turning point.
No doubt it is in front of us and yet to happen.
Probably soon it is so overdue.
Rationality has been thrown out the window long ago.

I have followed much of Steve's work and studied the data,
Which gives the faintest glimmer of what lies ahead.
I am as big a bear as he and it has cost me much to follow my convictions.
I still hold the conviction that this mania will end up below it's starting point - and that's around 1000pts on the Dow.

I will still try to call the potential turning points as these phases in time and price fall.
One day I will be spot on I guess.
Only in hindsight will I be able to pat myself on my back.

But it is coming and is probably not so far away.

Just like the doomsters who started talking about Y2k many years back.
First they were ridiculed and scoffed at.
Now many people give their opinions much more credence.
Soon we will know how real it will become.
But for now all we can do is speculate to the future.

Sooner or later Steve's thoughts could well come to fruition.
Same as the turning points I call.

Many here are not scared of voicing their opinions as to where gold goes.
They will stand up and call many fine analysists wrong as they say what they know to be true.
But hindsight proves who is right in the long run.

I would hazard a guess that before the millenium Steve's calls will have bourne some fruit.

I would hazard a guess that this bull run in PM's we all wait for,
Will be moving forward after these equity markets turn south hard.

Until then we can but call what we see as individuals.
Tolerance and patience will see us positioned as we feel fit as we enter these turbulent times.

It is up to the individual to balance his own acts.
And not to cast the blame for plans gone wrong
On someone elses calls.

Steve, IMHO has as much right to be here as Another or LGB or the infamous Hep-cat or even me.

Lets all give him some room and not turn to run him off as soon as he arrives.
We don't have to accept his opinions.
But I truly believe he has done his homework,
And has a right to voice it in these hallowed_halls@Kitco.

Please excuse my rant.
I bear no bad will.
But I choose to enjoy other peoples company
Even if I disaggree with their opinions.

There is much room for many diverse opinions
On this fantastic site.
Long_Live_Freedom_of Speech@Kitco

Namaste and goodwill to all who reside with honest opinions within their hearts.
Plenty of room for more.
IMHO

Only matters how many $ they spend

Dear Puetz,

Could you please explain to us why is it that your sell signals of last November 1997 didn't quite work out?

Thanks.

Date: Tue Nov 04 1997 21:09
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
The CBOE call/put ratio is also giving a sell-signal today. The short-term trend is soon to be down -- along with the intermediate trend in stocks.

What happens when the Asians decide we are the Titanic, and head for the life boats.Foreigners are going to leave, like fleas off a sprayed dog, when this market loses 1500 points. What about the dollar then.

President Clitton ain't helping either. We are the Lighthouse, But with Clitton we are the Outhouse.

are telling jokes about Clinton, as are we. America is fast becoming a joke. If you don't think character counts, check the worlds headlines and TV stations. The jokes on us.

http://www.co-intelligence.org/y2k_500days.html
~~~~~
How about a shoulder badge we could all sew onto our old bikie jackets.

"Y2k - Got Gold - Get Kitco gold"

After all we have to educate the masses
If we wish to profit well off this coming chaos.

Rest assured, that's why I'm calling it gambling money - same as betting on the horses. Of course, betting on the horses does give you a real good reason to watch the race, but I don't think anybody counts on it ( well, there are some desperate lottery type people out there ) .

For other's at kitco: DO NOT EVER LISTEN TO ME FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

But if that horse came in ... hehehe

As soon as it has been conceded that the ol' printing press is the solution, as soon as inflationary intentions are telegraphed, people will unload $'s ( or yen or whatever ) so as to preserve purchasing power. Use it or lose it, as they say.

sam__a.

make yer hair stand on end! Remember to fill out them thar Currency Transaction Reports- or the gov't could steal a lot of yer money . . .

by Bob Bauman, 09/20/95

Richard "Dick" Low, M.D. is the Alabama doctor in question. He lives in Haleysville ( 205 +
486-3916 [o], 486-2400 His attorney, Michael Seibert, Esq. of Huntsville ( ( 205 ) 852-3592 ) tells
me this in bare outline is the story:

Three years ago Dr. Low, at the request of a friend who had establish a new bank, order his then
current banker to transfer his funds to the new bank. The amount was approximately $2.6 million
and represented his life savings. The transfer was accomplished by a series of checks drawn by the
bank official who had been instructed by Dr. Low. Dr. Low was unaware of the need to file a CTR
and in any case his attorney says the banker should have filed it for him, as was customary, altho' the
legal responsibility for filing was the doctor's under the 1986 Money Laundering Act.

Low's attorney, Mr. Seibert, believes the reason the US Attorney went after the doctor, who was
never charged with any other extraneous crime, was because of the amount of money involved and
the fact that the law makes a felony of not filing the CTR, punishable with possible jail and a
$250,000 fine. Even if the government did not get all the doctor's money, they believed they would
get something big in the way of bucks.

When Low put up a major fight ( he even fired a professional PR firm ) , the government was
angered and surprised and as a pressure tactic, they got the IRS to place liens on all his property
and other assets because, with no cash available, he was unable to pay his usual income taxes when
they became due. They also charged the doctor with conspiracy to obstruct justice, meaning he was
fighting the government in every way he knew how. The court dismissed this ridiculous charge early
on.

The end result was that Dr. Low, after trial in US District Court, was acquitted of all charges and
his $2.6 million returned by court order. He then settled his tax situation with the IRS. However, he
sued the government for $317,000 in interest he lost during the time they held his funds, won that
case, and the government has appealed the ruling to the 11th Circuit where it is now pending.

Attorney Seibert says the case was a "nightmare" for the doctor, his wife and him as well. Seibert
says the government attitude in this case was no different from Waco or Ruby Ridge, except no one
died. He says the entire affair cost the doctor several hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees
for both Seibert and Bo Edwards, a local criminal defense attorney who handled part of the case.

Seibert said he did not think Dr. Low would have any objection to our identifying him by name in
our literature, since he welcomed publicity about his ordeal in order to warn others of what can
happen.

The point is they will all sink.

The Kenyan and Tanzanian Bombings and Iraq's Role

The bombing of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania was the major
international event last week. There was ample reason for concern. First,
these acts seemed to indicate that international terrorism was returning to
the world scene. Second, because the origin of the bombings was
immediately assumed to be somewhere in the Middle East, they seemed to
signal greater instability in that critical region. Therefore, we need to
turn our attention to sorting through what we know and don't know about the
bombings. Three questions need to be addressed: who did it, why did they
do it, and why did they do it now?


The Bombers Were Not Amateurs

First, we do not know from direct evidence who was responsible. We assume
that U.S. intelligence agencies also don't know who carried out the
bombings, because had they known, we assume they would have prevented it.
Second, if they uncovered the perpetrators in the few days since the
bombings occurred, this would indicate that they had a great deal of
information on hand already, and had failed to draw proper conclusions
prior to the attack. Therefore, we assume that U.S. intelligence is also
scrambling to figure out who was responsible.

To put it another way, barring the unthinkable, which was that U.S.
intelligence knew of the bombings but failed to stop them, it follows that
the bombers were either clever enough to evade detection by the world's
most sophisticated intelligence agencies, or that they represent a
completely new element not on any watch list. Because it is a given that
all significant terrorist threats are under constant scrutiny by U.S.
intelligence, the bombers were either very new, very good, or both.

Very new groups are hard to imagine in this case. The sophistication
needed to carry out this operation came from experience. It also required
a sophisticated support structure. An unknown, novice group did not carry
out a multi-national, coordinated strike as its first mission. While the
group may portray itself as new, there is little doubt that the organizers
and most of the operatives have been at this game for a while. Therefore,
the failure of U.S. intelligence to detect them has, we think, less to do
with their being new than it has to do with their being good at what they
do.

Contrary to popular myth, terrorist attacks are not easy to carry out.
The mere act of acquiring or moving weapons and explosives, identifying and
monitoring targets, acquiring and using bases of operations and
transportation, involves both trusting increasing numbers of operatives
with at least part of the plan, and using the services of outsiders. The
more complex the plan, the more conspirators are necessary, the more
outside resources need to be acquired, and the greater the likelihood of
detection and betrayal.

The lone bomber striking without warning is possible, but is usually not
the likeliest explanation. Usually, the lone amateur is detected in the
course of preparing for his mission. He is most likely to succeed in his
native country, where he is able to blend in and where he knows how to
acquire resources without being noticed. A lone bomber operating in a
foreign country is much harder to imagine. Carrying out simultaneous
attacks in two foreign countries is extremely difficult to execute. The
chances of detection are enormous.

The plan undoubtedly involved some key figures who are well known to
intelligence organizations as part of terrorist networks, whose mere
presence in Kenya or Tanzania would have set off alarms, or whose mere
conversations concerning either country would have been detected,
triggering alarms. So we are either dealing here with a massive
intelligence failure on the part of the United States or with an extremely
sophisticated group. We suspect the latter.

An unsophisticated group would not have chosen Kenya and Tanzania as a
target nor have had the resources to carry out a mission there. It seems
to us that the targets were selected because they were not likely to be on
the same level of alert as a U.S. facility in the Middle East or Europe.
Local security officials were less likely to detect the activities. In
other words, the terrorists deliberately hit two soft targets, decreasing
the chance of detection while actually increasing the shock value, making
it appear that no U.S. facility was safe anywhere.


A National Intelligence Service Involved

This represents extremely sophisticated thinking, excellent planning,
first-rate security measures, and a good knowledge of how to evade
detection by U.S. technical capabilities. This forces us to conclude by
pure inference that a national intelligence service with access to
diplomatic facilities was involved, given the logistical and communications
requirements of the mission. The problem with this theory is, of course,
that the use of diplomatic personnel and facilities increases the
probability of detection by U.S. intelligence, since most suspect
countries' diplomatic communications and travel are carefully monitored.
Somehow, a group with access to a national intelligence service's
facilities, and extremely sophisticated in its own right, managed to evade
detection by the CIA and NSA.

=From our point of view, therefore, this is not a question of a handful of
terrorists, but of a decision by a nation, or by a significant faction
within a nation, to strike at U.S. embassies. The question is, what group
and what nation would stand to gain by bombing U.S. facilities in Africa at
this point in time? Remember that a terrorist act is a scarce resource.
It takes time, courts danger, and terrorists tend to get used up quickly.
Who would spend scarce resources on this mission?


Osama Bin Laden is the Logical Candidate for Perpetrator

Press speculation has focused on Osama Bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi
expatriate who had spent time in Sudan and is now in Afghanistan. Bin
Laden is a good focus for several reasons. First, he has recently been
making threats against U.S. facilities. Of course, Bin Laden makes such
threats regularly. Second, as we noted earlier this week, the Russians
recently issued a warning about active and spreading Wahabi extremism.
Wahabi is a Saudi variety of Islam. Russian intelligence is extremely
sensitive to the spread of Islamic movements into Central Asia and the
Caucasus. They are in a crisis mode along the Afghan border, where Bin
Laden's hosts, the Taleban, are waging an offensive to capture the
remainder of Afghanistan. The Russians have noted Wahabi activism in the
Caucasus. It would be interesting to know if they were aware of such
activity elsewhere.

There is a final reason why Bin Laden is the prime suspect. There just
aren't a whole lot of other candidates. The old, international terrorist
movement is in a state of collapse. Most of the old masterminds are dead
or too old for the sport. Moreover, ever since the Czech, Hungarian, and
East German intelligence archives fell into Western hands, their
infrastructure was exposed and rolled-up. Hamas is obsessed with its
struggle with the PLO and Israel, and has neither the resources nor the
security system to carry out such an attack.

Hezbollah and the Iranians are always a possibility, but there are several
good arguments against this being their work. First, Iran is profiting
greatly from its flirtation with the United States. It has broken the back
of the U.S. dual containment policy, created an entente with Saudi Arabia
without forcing the Saudis to break with the United States, and actually
sees a chance of ending the U.S. economic embargo. This policy is one on
which most Iranian factions agree. Moreover, if it were Hezbollah, we
would expect the attacks to have come in Latin America, where they
reportedly have developed operating units and work with some of the major
drug dealers. Iran doesn't have any reason to carry out this action right
now, and the action does not have Hezbollah's signature on it.

That leaves Bin Laden, both by reason and default, as the most likely
choice. Geography points to Bin Laden. Having lived and worked in Sudan
for years, Bin Laden has excellent relations with elements in Sudan's
Islamic government. This government, although not on the best of terms
with Kenya, does provide access to both target countries. Bin Laden is
relatively familiar with the region, and probably has assets available to
him there. Moreover, Sudan has been increasingly confident in the last few
months, as its opponents in the civil war have fragmented.


Possible Motivations for Bin Laden

Moreover, Bin Laden is sitting in Afghanistan, where the Taleban are moving
closer to victory in the civil war. Bin Laden is closely allied with the
Taleban, which are strongly opposed by both Iran and Russia. The Taleban's
only support comes from Pakistan. Were Pakistan to break with the Taleban,
as Russia and Iran desire, defeat could be snatched from the jaws of
victory. The bombings, therefore, could be used as a signal to Pakistan of
the price for opposing Taleban

In this reading, Bin Laden is striking against the United States in a
warning to Pakistan and a declaration of war against Iranians willing to
work with the U.S. Put another way, Bin Laden is signaling the Shiites
that the true mantle of Islamic anti-Americanism has fallen from their
shoulders to his. So, the bombings make sense simply within the immediate
Afghani context, and warn the Iranians that their claim on Islamic
radicalism is slipping.

The bombings could have had another audience as well: the Saudi royal
family. King Fahd was reportedly ill and in the hospital again last week.
His heir apparent, Prince Abdullah, has been the leading figure in the
flirtation with Iran. His main rival, Prince Sultan, is aligned with the
United States. Bin Laden, suspected in the Khobar Tower bombing, has
declared war on the "crusader" occupation of Mecca and Medina, meaning the
United States. Bin Laden is making it clear to both Abdullah and Sultan
that there will be a third force in the succession struggle that is
independent of both the United States and Iran.

In this context, the bombings are a warning to the Saudi Royal family that
choosing between the U.S. and Iran, or even brokering reconciliation
between them, will not secure the royal family's interests in the face of
collapsing oil prices. He has the ability to strike deep and hard, both
inside of Saudi Arabia and against targets far away. The bombings would be
a strong signal to an uneasy monarchy that it needs to deal with its own
radicals.

Thus, Bin Laden is the logical suspect, with the Sudanese the logical
vehicle. There are several good reasons why the bombing should have taken
place now. But there is also a mystery. Bin Laden is extremely well known
to U.S. intelligence. His every move is undoubtedly monitored. The
Sudanese are not sophisticated enough to provide the cover needed to
operate without detection. How could Bin Laden have carried out a
simultaneous multi-national strike without being detected, particularly as
he is the prime suspect in the Khobar Tower bombing? There has to be
another element.


The Iraqi Connection

We believe that other element to be Iraq. Bin Laden and Iraq share a
double hatred of Iran and the United States. Both are deeply concerned by
the growing accommodation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both want to send
a message to the Saudis that accommodation with Iran will not protect the
Saudi regime from terrorism, while simultaneously signaling all Persian
Gulf nations that the United States cannot protect them either. Tensions
in the region mounted last week as Iraq faced off with United Nations
inspectors once again, and as the Iranians assured the Saudis and the rest
of the Persian Gulf that they were prepared to use their military force to
protect them from the Iraqis. The Iraqis have clearly decided to increase
tensions in the region. They are trying to convince the Saudis that
working with Iran is no safer than working with the United States.

It would also explain the lack of detection. Although undoubtedly deeply
penetrated by both human and technical U.S. intelligence, the Iraqis have
displayed a regular ability to occasionally confound U.S. intelligence
monitoring through clever and sophisticated means. That is why they have
periodically startled the U.S. with their moves. It would also explain how
Bin Laden slipped past U.S. intelligence: Iraq, using Sudanese assets,
operating in an unanticipated area of the world, allowed Bin Laden's people
to slip into Kenya and Tanzania, maintain necessary communications for
coordination, and strike before U.S. intelligence could detect the threat.


Iraq's Motivation

The real issue is why? Why would the Iraqis strike now? Indeed, why in
general is Iraq increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf? The key is Iran.
Iraq, having nearly broken free from its encirclement, is seeing that
progress reverse and now is finding itself increasingly isolated. Iran's
love affair with Saudi Arabia and its flirtation with the United States
have given the Iraqis the feeling that time is not on their side. The
Syrians, long friendly with Iran, have cooled toward the Iraqis. The Turks
remain a glowering presence to the north.

Iraq is feeling insecure. The key is to drive a wedge between Iran and
Saudi Arabia. Since seduction hasn't worked, the Iraqis are now turning to
the bludgeon. They are not striking directly at the Saudis, as that might
drive them deeper into the Iranians' arms. Rather, they are letting the
Saudis know that they could strike if they wanted. Iran might have its
missiles, but Iraq has Bin Laden. By supporting Bin Laden's operation in
Africa, Iraq shows its muscle without striking directly against those it
wants to entice, namely, the Persian Gulf Arabs. Moreover, Saddam is
warning Clinton, whom Saddam reads as having no stomach for a
confrontation, that he will strike hard where the U.S. least expects to be
hit.

At the same time, we must remember that, tragic though it was, if this
action was Iraq's and Bin Laden's best shot, it really wasn't much. It
will not determine the outcome of the Saudi succession, shift Iranian
policy, nor solve Iraqi isolation. What it might do is to create further
instability in an already rudderless U.S. Mideast policy while setting off
another witch hunt in the U.S. intelligence community over who fouled up
this time. What is important here is the fact that Saddam is getting
desperate again. With Saddam, desperation and unpredictability tend to go
hand in hand. If we are right in our inference of Iraqi involvement, the
very fact that the strike will not redefine the region's current alignment
means that we can expect more definitive action on the part of Iraq.

~~~~~~~~
UNIX has a problem in 40 years that will make Y2k look like kiddies picnic.

right to post here as anyone. But if he gets carried away with hubris & arrogance & tries to make mkt calls right to the week or even day, then he leaves himself open to ridicule.

And let's not forget that he was flogging his book on this forum last year.

It's been my experience that the posters on this forum with the most credibility e.g. Donald & RJ may offer opinions on broad mkt moves, but would never attempt to predict a huge move well in advance. Other posters like Alph who day trade offer advice for the short term , but don't try to assume Guru status.

You mean a guy came on here and hyped his own book? It's a poor dog that won't wag his own tail. Chill, this is America.

Yesterday ( last evening Kitco time I believe ) I saw a reference to Monetary supply potentially confirming a Rees Moog ( sp? ) secnario of deflation.

Unfortunately I can't seem to find it with me searchs. Perhaps this negative Gold bull hs driven me around the bend :-'

Can anyone point me to the post?

Anyone?

Thanks,

Steven ( user787748@aol.com )

...Lower corporate profits, lower stock valuations, reality check, crash bang boom, Margin calls, the unwinding of credit, property markets fall, defaults, liquidity squeeze, no credit.

No, just the end of the business cycle. It happens this way all the time, except for the last few years.. Bear markets usually happen every 3 or 4 years. This one will be bad, because we ain't had one for so long.

Corrections allow the market to let off steam every now and then to prevent the market vfrom blowing it's stack, as you know. We havent had a big correction in too many years. It allowed us to go straight up. That is not sustainable..so you have to have a big drop::the bear. Usually when the US has one, so does every other country.

I believe this is the post you were looking for: Sat Aug 08 1998 13:57

The market is sinking. It just started to take on water. The economy is starting to show signs of running out of steam later. The market is done. stick a fork in it.

The market peaks and turns down while the economy is still OK. Tis is called discounting of the future. When recession comes...., the market will stat to recover before the economy does. The market looks ahead always. The economy is slower motioned.

US market

I think you are right .

The stock market has been rising for 24 years. Now 8 and 12 year market cycles are both due to bottom, leading to speculation on a crash scenario this fall.

Many simpletons are convinced that it is easy to make money in the stock market. The truth is that it isn't supposed to be that easy, and if stocks were such a bargain, then the media wouldn't be trying to hype them so much as to keep everyone in the market.

SWP
Mr Mick has kindly listed the Rees-Mogg phases for us:

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998_02/980221.091524.mr._micke.htm


http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998_02/980221.092059.mr._micke.htm

aurator@playingtheMoggsynthesiser

Bloomberg reports that Buffett's recent bond sales left him sitting atop a $7.1 billion cash hoard at the end of the second quarter, raising questions about how he will deploy the money. Berkshire's SEC report says cash and cash equivalents rose to $7.1 billion as of June 30, from $1.0 billion on March 31. As a result, Buffett had roughly 13 percent of Berkshire's invested assets in cash as the second quarter closed.

Gianni
Salud!
Que? What are these 8 & 12 year market cycles amigo? Are these the Kitchen & Jugler cycles to which you refer? I believe ( without looking up to check they are 9 and 11 year business cycles ) or are there other pesky little cycles whose datum points are incontrovertible too?

sharefin is absolootly correct, the Y2K will be experienced downunder in noo zilund first. Funny how a number of NZ firms actually expect to make the dinars attracting millenium touristos to the first mainland in the world to see the dawning of the millenium.

"The dawning of the Millenium" sounds like a hit musical...someone should maybe write a song, maybe they have...Steve Goodman's ( Miss ya Steve ) "The Twentieth Century's Almost Over" was written in 1977. Perhaps some kitcoite might like to rise to the challenge and pen an anthem for goldbugs@_millenium?

Gianni
I account for my bullion as cash equivalents because bullion is immediately liquifible into cash here, no questions asked.
IMMEDIATELY

liquifible=liquifiable

feebleaurator

Como Stas, Amigo?

Prechter talks about these cycles in Aug newsletter. Says the 2, 8, and 12 yr. cycles all due to bottom this year. The 8 & 12 yr. cycles are in Appendix B in "At the Crest..".

Thanks to Bill Gates we can get a a taste of it 1 year early. Another reason to despise MSFT.

From the Sunday Times:


Millennium test exposes date fault in Windows 98


David Parsley






PURCHASERS of Microsoft's new Windows 98 personal computer operating system could face havoc as a result of a bug that causes it to malfunction when the year changes. It is unrelated to the millennium bug although software designed to spot millennium-bug problems first exposed the problem.

Microsoft has been aware of the date-related problem since the launch of Windows 98 in June. It has failed to notify purchasers of the product, which replaces Windows 95, but it is now moving to tackle the issue and has teamed up with Prove It 2000, a British software house.

Richard Coppel, chief executive of Prove It 2000, confirmed that the problem was not related to the millennium bug. He said: "There is is an anomaly with Windows 98 that affects the date on the system. We have tested the program by setting the date at just 30 seconds before December 31. The year does not matter, which is why it is not a millennium problem. It can be any year in any century. When the clocks tick past midnight into the next year we have found the program either leaps two days forward or one day back."

Such a problem could cause computers to perform tasks at incorrect times. This would have potentially damaging consequences in financial institutions, which programme transactions such as money transfers months in advance.

While Microsoft's British subsidiary confirmed that a date problem with Windows 98 did exist, its American parent would not comment. It is not the first problem the group has had with the package but unless it is remedied, it could be the most damaging.

Bill Gates, Microsoft's chairman, is involved in a legal battle with the American government as a result of the Windows 98 launch. It has accused him of trying to crush rivals and monopolise access to the Internet by incorporating a web browser in the package.

James
You want to scrub up, ready for that illegal operation on Bill Gates? I'm going in, bugger the anaesthetic.

Remind me not to get on James bad side.

Now the asian markets have all gone to hell and they're no doubt going to pull our markets down tomorrow too. So much for me purchasing puts during a small rally. Grrr.

bloops
James ain't got no bad side, he's bad through and through.

He he he he

BTW, There's room on the slab for ANOTHER


auric
I'd invite you to the Gates carve-up, I mean operation, but you'd probably regret your hippocratic...
BTW, you should watch out where you pull out your mountie, you saucy fellow.

Instead of speculating.
~~~~~~~~~
Big Boy Bill Gates has a lot to answer for - heaps.
Not only did he give us Win95
Which all the software co's made programs for.
But he provided the platform for all of us to be ripped off.

I have seven charting packages, $1000's down the drain.
And many databases.
Non of which are Y2k compliant - mutter mutter mutter......
Many hours/years of compiling charts and data.
All down the drain?
Do I start again???

Now he's peddling more for his back pocket - Win98

Funny but he was recently in town - Port Douglas
Along with 500 other software experts.
Stayed at the Mirage hotel.
Day one all the Mirage's computers went down.
Booking were absolute chaos.
Overbooked by 50+++ and town was full.
Then their pool chlorinators went down.
And their magnificent pool went green.

Guess it was a taste of his own medicine.

I'm sick of having to reboot 4 times a day.
Guess something good has got to come out of all this.
Oneday, maybe.
Should have stuck with my old mac's - why did I ever change???

Steve's okay, just missed the mark.
I've done the same, more than once.

~~~~~~~~~~
Aurator
Put me down as the anaesthesist..
T'would be a job I'd enjoy.

T'would be good if Buffett dived into my precious with that 7 billion.
What a rush that would create.

Off to chuck a raw prawn on the barby.
Bananas of course.
Horses for courses.

Nothing,
We know,
Is always what it seems
And who amongst us
Can separate or tell
Dreamer from dreams
Or walk with sure feet
The narrow edge
That separates
A long dreamed heaven
From a long feared hell

Who knows
The twist of fate
The hard decision
That transforms the hell
Into desired heaven

Who knows?
It is best to pray
And have
That inner guidance
On the long hard way

I saw this beautiful girl go by
T'was a windy day
And the wind moulded the blue dress
Round her beautiful body
In a most wonderful
Delightful and feminine way

Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast

And my eyes rested there
Happy moment!
Then drifted on to her hair

Delightful, her dark hair
Silk smooth, a lovely tress
Curled gently down to her shoulders
Which are rounded and shapely and fair
Then flowed round her beautiful features
And fell, soft, on the lovely blue dress

And her lips,
They glowed in the sunlight
I could see they were soft and cool

And her eyes
The mild eyes of a roe deer
I nearly drowned in that pool!



But,
She smoothed the blue dress about her,
The shoulder,
Gave a cold unfriendly goodbye
And she flaunted those hips
As she passed me
With a flash and a gleam in her eye

The language she used
As she passed me,
Tho never a word she said!

So she's gone,
The girl in the blue dress

But I; I still have the beautiful blue dress
Wind blown and bright
In my head

As I watch the news and read the accounts and hear that in Tanzania no American died, but hundreds of Tanzanians did...

I come away with the impression that any country, city or town
should be increasingly reluctant to "host" official U.S. installations {military or diplomatic}. Such U.S. presence is a lightning rod for terrorist attacks which kill their own people. Why host a target which will draw fire and thus cause enormous risk of injury, death and damage to the hosting nation/city.

An understandable reaction from any nation or city concerning a U.S. installation would be similar to a hazardous waste dump - NIMBY! {not in my back yard!}

Another understandable reaction from native individuals in areas with lots of anti-American sentiment would be to shy away from association with Americans. Americans could be walking targets - anyplace that caters to Americans could find itself in a crossfire or even intentionally targeted.

Terrorism against U.S. a fact of life
http://www.msnbc.com/news/186373.asp#BODY

http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/bankrun.html

I am thinking about purchasing a compooter, even in this milliniumdebacle deflationary spiral & shark infested brave new paradigm that we live in. Should I buy a mac ?
Also, I heard through the cyber grape vine that I Be Bllue has come out with a process that will double the speed of the processor & that it will be to market in less than 6 months. My old horse and buggy might not wait that long, but what's a fella to do ? Is it reasonably possible to think that any thing purchased today will be YTOOK ready ?

Your Cyber Insomniac Pen Pal,


TAR BABY

sharefin
No, mate! No anaesthetists! But the honoured post of "Blunter of the Scalpels" is yours for the asking. I am looking for "Maker of Instruments Rusty" and "Gangrene Man" to assist: there's room for "Typhoid Mary", "Calamity Jane", "Cross-eyed Tailor" and "Wrong-way Corrigan" too.

Heck,.if you've got a hunchback I've gotta job for you.

Asia fininshed pretty much down across the board. Europe all red, Taiwan big losser in Asia. Great post from Sharefin from Global Intelligence. Traditional media don't have the time for that type of reporting.

S&P on Globex off only 200 points. Wish the rally had continued some - I was ready to try the short side

Yen making new post intervention lows - looks like another tough day for the metals though its times like this when you watch for the unexpected - like metals going up when they would by prior actions be expected to decline.

China intervenes to protect the RMB and CNBC Asia seems to have dropped their ongoing live currency quotes.

Today, I attended a Gun Show here in the sunny southern US of A & ran into a very agreeabl Civil War Bufff who showed me a hand full of bullits with severe teath marks that he dug up near a bivwaced emergecy hospital unit near where I live. The bullits were used as anaesthetic whilst the doctors sawed off fractured & splintered limbs.
It seems that under the strict terms of the Geneva Convention as well as the strict dictates of the Nurenberg Trial precedents, you must at least administer one bullit & not in the matter as was delivered to Vince Foster mate !
For my part I will only stand guard at the door & follow orders !

Y.O.S.,


TAR BABY

Newtron
I play hither and yon on a Mac I bought for US$400 15 months ago. You gotta know what to buy, I got no CD Rom, no stereo sound ( well I have but I dont care for it ) , this little bugger is faster than the pentium I have at work and it never causes me no gripe ( apart from that inept ICQ program ) . She's a perler! LC630. She'll last till 2001, no sweat! Of course, at the same time I coulda bot a new Pentium for US$1200 and had it in the shop for weeks and weeks, and I work in the bizness.

Besides which there are several blasphemous games on the Mac that aren't on PC, and whenever I get me pissed off with sanctimonious posters hereabouts I can go play Rapture! It's bloody, It's blaspemous, and dey dont reach heaven.....

newtron
hence
"Biting the Bullet."

Of course some corn whiskey might help the pain some, but not the bleeding.

Sold in new computers only, not available to upgrade users.
The Gate keeper and co. really don't want to admit to much error, so it is not easy to get. I understand win98 as worse release than 95, and certainly worse than win95rs.
Nicodemus

I am placing the fruit of my labor into hard assets on the floor of my store and my home. The only fiat scrip I have is the necessary minimum working cash for my business. I venture to say I am pretty well prepared to defend our liberties - likely more than those with lots of Gold & Silver but little in usable assets. Since I can not assume that cash, Gold or Silver will be able to buy what I need - because what I need may simply not be available - I must first finish building a foundation to preserve life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, then I will add extra "mediums of exchange" with which to buy more. See my post of Tue Aug 04 1998 22:38.
I do not wish to be in the position of having Gold but an empty belly because the grocery shelves are bare and no trucks are coming to restock them because farms are not producing and the passes are closed anyway.
See also my post of Sat Aug 08 1998 22:08

My rather old Guiness Book of records ( 1974 ) says that "the fastest amputation of a limb in the pre-anaesthetic era was 33 sec through a patient's thigh by Robert Liston ( 1794-1847 ) of Edinburgh, Scotland ( ANOTHER BRILLIANT SCOT, HAGGIS ) This feat caused his assistant the loss of three fingers from his masters saw."

Now, I think you'll have to agree that the loss of a few fingers is a mere quibble when you're going for a record, yes?

In any event, the operation I am planning shall last weeks.

thinks Anaesthetic must mean without esthetic, so we shall perform the operation esthetic, oh yes, we need an estheticist, someone who can make real esthetics/feelings MORE real, hmmmmm


I blame auric He suggested I see "The Forgotten Planet" and the sad/evil Dr Mebius may have possesed me. Is a Faustian story, no? Was that the movie of the SF classic short story "Farnham's Run"? Not read for a qtr century.

Say, is icq not working? I've been home for two weeks and left messages with icq for Promey and get no response.
Nicodemus

Sounds like Y2K in the cities and most other places too.
Rapture - good gosh! Exactly opposite of the bibilical expectation.
$400! You did pretty well!
Some other lucky soul may do even better.
There is a PowerMac 6300 down at the pawn shop - only $179!
The pawn shop owners don't know what they have!
I'm tempted to relieve them of it!

P.S. All Macs are Y2K compliant until at least 2020 and maybe longer.

Nicodemus
The job is yours. Just remember to bring your own spanner to throw in the works.


I hope that expression travels.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980809/mexico_ban_1.html

Promey may be off tending business elsewhere.
She just got back from a trip and is likely busy trying to catch up.
We do miss her posts here.

Yes i'll have to bring my automatically expanding spanner wrench, gorilla-grip
robogrip pliars, and my high-voltage probe with the high voltage still attached.
And all my Micro-tools, microtweezers, micro-needlenose, microforscepts, microprofitakers, etc.
Oh and one head demagnetizer.
Nicodemus

Donald
vitality is independant of age, yes?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980810/corrected__2.html

Vitality is independent of age? No.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980810/china_curr_1.html

Thanks

swp1

Sorry about mis-typing your name.

swp1

Nicodemus

Yes! Yes! Yes!
If you ever get the chance, visit Madame Tuesaud's ( sp? ) museum in London, you are forgettin thumb-screws, knee-screws, bodily tweakers and twisters and, that old perenial.. the rack, but you are definately on the right track!!


very few here, I am sure, have read de Sade. Noone could proclaim him a writer, who has read Justine or Juliette. Might I recommend Peter Wiess' play "The assasination of Marat, as portrayed by the Inmates of Charencout Lunatic Asylum, under the direction of the Marquis de Sade" ( from memory, Freddie, can you correct me? ) as an eye-opener into the mind of this rather sick, rather special uniquely libertine thinker?

Many here proclaim they are libertarian. Until one sees what lies beyond libertarianism,,that is libertinism then solipsism..one cannot ( ?imho ) know the boundaries between certainty and belief...

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980809/singapore__1.html

Donald
Si!
( end of argument )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980810/japan_fore_1.html

``People did not sell the dollar despite the huge debt held by the United States as there was nothing else to buy. But they may decide to buy the euro,'' Gyohten said.

Archimedes said, "Give a long enough stick & a place to stand & I could move the world out of it's orbit !"
The ancient art of Jujitsu also illustrates this principal where a very small opponet uses the weight of his very large opponet against himself at the margin point of maximum leverage.
Markets are also "moved" at the margin as this is the modicum of truth in the fleckless statements that both RR & Obuchi have made while shurgging thier shoulders at the Yen deterioration. But the cuurrency traders are not so quietly working away at the margins & steadily rolling the Yen over.
They know that concerted & coordinated CB intervevtion at the margin would send them reeling back into the bush, licking their scars & wounds like a pack of harrassing hyinas confronted by the King of the Serengetty. "Is it dead yet ? Is the leader of the pride far off ? Is the pride gorged & listless with sleep so it is safe to attack the carcass ? Was that last thursting attack the Lyon's last show of force before retiring to the tall grass ? Was it just a territorial imperitive head fake so Billary could strutt their stuff in front of the ChiComs ? "
RR is learned & wise & shrewd & studied in the ways of the art of thinking & taking action at the margins.
But, the real secret RR knows is that if the secular & cyclical forces are lined up in sea change, no combination of government or cartel coordinated actions could come close to the margin point of maximum leverage, just as one man could not find this point of advantage all at once when surrounded by a group of Sumo wrestlers. The key of course is to concentrate your force, but make it seem like many different armies by rapid deploymnt from one theater to the other, like Stone Wall Jackson in the Shenandoah Campaign.
The AU/$/Yen carry trade is the same. 8000 Tons of leased Gold be damned, this blasphemy is only effective because it is riding the crest of a deflatioary tsunami & Gold is simply doing what it must like Newton's apple, performing it's role as the barometor of money. When it starts to rise as dislocation & distortions begin to further warp the yield curve, holding it down with all the Gold in the CB vaults will be like blowing in the wind or Jaws trying to stay submerged with all those gas filled beer barrals harpooned to his side !
In the mean time I will gild my Lilly & try to keep my private member firmly attached & in low key mode !

Y.O.S.


TAR BABY

Envy
your grandfather's stories of rationing. Ask again, listen harder! My m was in London in the Blitz. She told me stories of rationing that, with respect, were never known on the far side of the Atlantic.

America did not enter the war until there were maximum ally casualties, and Lend-Lease agreements in place, of course.

A pity that Franois does not read kitco, we could do with a real Gallic perspective.

Can anyone bring a bilingual francophone to kitco?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_147000/147482.stm

Don't buy nothing - at least not yet.
Mac's have a major Y2k problem too - sparks to run.
From what I read 10% to 30% of PC's on the shelf have Y2k dramas.

Want my opinion???
Don't buy, but lease/rent.
Why not pay a minimal monthly on a hot machine.
And after the dust clears take your pick.
You can always reneg on the rent and toss the mahine if things go bad.
And you won't be caught with a lemon.

Lemons R US esp B.G.

Esp for marinated Octopus's

Donald
As I also look for deflationary signals I was hoping you could help me with this: How are carried-forward stock ( inventory ) valued in the balance-sheets of US Corporations?
There are many different accounting standards in NZ that deal with this question. Are they valued at Cost Price? Current Price? Realisable Value? there must be other valuation models too, but it's late downunder.

This is v impt, imho, for the 3rd & 4th Qtr results of US Companies.

sharefin
wait one cotton-pickin-minute-there-fella
what's this Mac have a problem bizzo?
No, Mac's don't have a problem in the O/S. And anyone who has developed software in accordance with the standard Mac Interface and Toolbox does not have a problem. The problem if there be one, is from developers who have ported from Windows ( I'm starting to call it Losedows ) to Mac.

No problemo with Mac. uh uh.


Losedows, you heard it first@kitco

Nice thing about a woodstove - it's Y2K compliant
( as long as you cut the wood with an ax and haul it with a sled )
Chainsaws & trucks are Y2K compliant but the fuel supply isn't.

Same lesson applies to propane or oil furnaces ( which also need fuel pumps ) and even coal or wood furnaces with fans.
Somebody may have a 1000 gallon tank but no juice to run the blowers.
That has happened to many people with natural gas or fuel oil furnaces.

Bill Gates I fart in your general direction !

Y.O.S.,


TAR BABY

Religious-like fanatics who jump all over anyone who slights them.
Even when the critic has a point such as
no electrical sparks to run the Mac or the LostWindows machines.
and no calories, vitamins or minerals to be had by swallowing Gold.

Belief is a chioce based on incomplete but plausible information. Certainty is a perception that all relavent information has been aquired for an appropriaate decision. Unfortunatley all present isms have many ill effects just over the horizon and many do not follow thier presupoitions to thier logical conclusions. Witness
vying political hypothisis, many proffess far reaching good results which attain mostlly to a short lived present success in thier political careers. The law of intended consiquences is that if one idealogical rule adds more problems to be solved it ever perpetuates the myth that we actualy know what were doing and thus the approval to make more stupid rules.
I wish people would believe in my products, like they do in polaticians as my products actually provides technical solutions as apposed to adding more problems, ( system transparency ) .
Go Gold, Go sales, Go to heck political baloney.
Going a bit overboard......,
Nicodemus

skwirl

you can buy an SE30 for about $100. That is a computer to leave 486 in its tracks. Of course Apple couldn't market beanie babies if it had the idea. It would let billie gatesy sell inferior weanie babies and swamp the market.

Apple One sucky marketing company with a score of brilliant technology advances.

gogogold

But I'll just be...*** POOF *********************~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Nicodemus
Eggsactly. You are so eruditely talking of the one true law of the universe, the law of cause and effect, yes?

This law operates despite/because of unintended/unknown/unknowable consequences.

Our actions, our words, our thoughts are consequences born of their own causes, they themselves, these effects, are causes that also bring consequences. This is the law of cause and effect. It is always true and mostly unknowable.

The convocation of voices at kitco has a profound effect on the universe.

I dunno what it means, but I know it is important.


Look at the different opinions!
Listen to the disparity of clamours!
Hark at the colours of interpretations!

This kitco, it is changing the world and the universe.


G & P
gotta stack the zzzzzzzz's

bbbb I got a date, counting sheeps

I can hear the collective sy of relief from all the real sheep of New Zealand, now that your goiny to count the dreamy ones !

LOLROF at my own funny thingy !

{:}...!


Y.O.S.,

With Tongue Planted firmly in my own cheek !


TAR BABY

Nicodemus
stopped reading SF too long ago. Is Codgerspace like todgerspace? where todger- the old fella?

My handle was conceived after some months lurking here. I was influenced by aurophile, by auroelf ( both of whom still lurk ) I am no gold trader, I am no gold sage, I merely talk about gold. I orate, I aurate.

and I must peraurate or die.

coming soon to a bookshop near you

http://www.reagan.com/HotTopics.main/Welcome.html

Look, this is a skool nite and i gotta hit the hay.
Todger=old fella = dingle dangles. OK?

Someone else must better at this but I will take a stab at it and hope someone knowledgeable corrects me. I think it is FIFO, First in, first out. If you have a special circumstance you can get an opinion letter from the IRS that allows a different method.

http://www.ardemgaz.com/today/editorial.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980810/markets_pr_1.html

Donald: British CB and US Fed are fighting INFLATION, not deflation, albeit AG has allowed the US money supply to expand rapidly ( isn't that a contradiction in terms - a negative divergence ) . If they suspected real deflation, we would see a lowering of short-term interest rates and even faster money growth.

Do not confuse deflation with the world-wide currency crisis in which we find ourselves. A decline in commodity prices expressed in dollars - yes. However, expressed in virtually all Asian currencies, Australia, Canada, South Africa, etc., commodity prices have risen sharply. The gold miners in Australia and South Africa have experienced a revival, whereas the US gold miners are on the ropes.

The dollar is now over 30% overvalued on an economic basis. This can only go on for so long. When the dollar finally breaks ( see Kaplan's recent data on the commercial positions in dollar/yen ) , we will see a real rise in commodity prices expressed in dollars ( e.g., POG at $380-$390, POS at $8 to $10 ) .

Donald

FIFO
Does that mean I can carry last year's inventory at purchase price rather than realisable value?

if so, it can hide some nasty balance sheet problemos for several years.\

This is, of course, the main problem with the Banks of the Sons of Nippon, they refuse to face up to today....

Someone's gonna get fleeced.....baaaaa

41, 42, 43, 44, hello darling.45 ,46. 47, zzzzzz

Over the weekend I read something to the effect that we couldn't have a stock market crash because the Fed can't raise interest rates due to the Asian crisis. The writer said we have never had a crash without a rise in rates by the bank. I responded ( silently ) that the fed is raising rates by leaving them steady during this worldwide deflation. Many countries of the world are using the U.S. dollar in everyday commerce. Prices for the same tube of toothpaste in that local store are dropping in dollar terms but increasing in local currency terms. Is that circumstance inflation or deflation? I say it is currency depreciation. We are having a general and spreading crisis of currency confidence.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/980817/17mark.htm

It means that the profit or loss on any sale is calculated by determining the difference between the price of the sale and the cost of the oldest shelf item. Some companies have opted to switch from FIFO to LIFO because of exactly the point you raised, advantages in accounting during inflationary and/or deflationary environments. I hope someone jumps in here to explain it better. This is not my thing.

Whether it is best to use FIFO or LIFO depneds upon your goal and whether prices have gone down or up over the lifetime of your inventory.

Let's say prices have declined and you wish to show the biggest possible loss or lowest possible gain for tax deduction purposes. Then you would wish to use FIFO since the stock you accumulated had a higher cost basis the farther back you go.

On the other hand, perhaps you want to show your stcokholders the highest gain or lowest loss in your report because you intend to issue some more stock and don't wish a decline in price just now. Then you would use LIFO.

In the case of rising prices, similar though opposite reasoning would apply.

Accounting can be rather, er, flexible at times.

my first post and hello to everybody. have browsed here for a while and find it quite intresting.. buy the way whatn ever happend to ANOTHER ?

One of the few analysts who has correctly called the BEAR MARKET is Clif Droke. He is basically a technical analyst who relies heavily upon the interpretation of the Elliott Wave and Ganns theories.

Like the scalpel in the hands of 999,999 men is just another implement for butchering meat. BUT, in the deft trained hand of a skilled practitioner it becomes a surgical instrument of cure. Similarly I consider the ELLIOTT WAVE & GANNS theories. Testament to analyst's deft use of the two theories is his recent precise call on the 'paper' markets.

His last comment is indeed raising eyebrows, " Keep your eyes firmly on the White House. It, along with the U.S. stock market, is due for a massive shakeout very soon."

His observations regarding the puny attempts to rally are contained in his recent recent at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke081098.html

Gold to retest bottom...

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

US Bonds bottoming in yield ( topping in price ) ...

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/yield.html

S&P trend looks to be down...

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/sp500.html

CRB Index at the bottom...

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/crb.html

Each month G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E beams a SPOTLIGHT on exemplary market commentary and analysis submitted to it.

The SPOTLIGHT AWARDS for July shines on veteran analyst James Dines:

It is meaningful to mention that the MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT recipients are selected purely by the votes ( i.e. visits ) of their peers. This is determined solely by the actual count of the total number of viewers
to read the particular commentary or analysis during respective months.
There is no other influencing factor.

His critically-acclaimed and insightful report is entitled "Let Your Profits Run" - and may be read at following URL - remember to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/dines051398.html

My Dear Kitco mates///
Let's just say that you do the following:

1 ) buy some yeller and silver stuff and stash it.
2 ) get some banknotes in small denominations and stash 'em.
3 ) buy a water tank and fill it ( also connect to your roof ) .
4 ) buy a 3-6 month supply of grub.
5 ) buy some 'protection' ( and I ain't talkin' about condoms ) .
6 ) buy a generator, fuel, wood-burning stove/heater etc.
7 ) buy some camping gear,survival equipment, water filters, bleach etc.

NOW WHAT IS THE DOWNSIDE IF NOTHING HAPPENS??

You will consume over time most of what you have bought. You can get out with your loved ones and enjoy camping, hunting, sight seeing. You will have psychological comfort as Y2K and the new millenium approach. You can have a good laugh when nothing happens.

NOW WHAT IF 'SOMETHING' HAPPENS??

You and your loved ones may just survive.
............................................
Are you willing to gamble with your loved-one's lives??

( :- ) ) )

and welcome to Kitco on a relatively quiet Monday am ( US ) here at Kitco. ANOTHER was discredited by his affected syntax ( read faked ) and, I would believe, the disastrous financial effects experienced by anyone who traded based on the predicted outcomes of his published intrigues. RJ, myself and OTHERS ( grin ) at the time of his postings were plain in calling ANOTHER a farce, although there were supporters here also. I do not know what "happened" to ANOTHER and must admit I do not care....I would rather have one DONALD than a hundred ANOTHERS!

...have ever seen first-hand a war/riot/revolution/civil uprising???

Shooting.Killing.Bombs.Molotov cocktails.Destruction of property.Mob violence.

Veterans amongst you will have an inkling.

Most of you have been coddled from birth...

You see it on the tele every day.

But that will never happen to YOU.

Will it??

Will it???

It is of course Monday am where I am ( US ) and where Kitco is also ( Canada ) ....thanks for being YOU Bart, and I think I need ANOTHER cup of joe! Go Gold ( sometime! )

I always have a lot of respect for your comments but what is this calling most of "us" coddled westerners? I thot you were in the land of OZ and what do you guys consider yourselves???? While you are correct about most Westerners there are still a lot of us who went thru the depression, served in WW II ( and in my case also the Korean "conflict" ) , and have not exactly had a bed of roses. Yes, I am a Yank and damn proud of it, while admitting we have many problems - er - lets call them challenges.

Mutual Fund Strategist weekend hotline, Saturday, August 8. There was a
whirlwind of market volatility and timing signal changes during the past week. When the dust finally settled on Friday, the blue-chip S&P 500 Index and over-the-counter NASDAQ Composite Index had lost 2.8% and 1.4% respectively for the week. Overall market breadth has deteriorated to a level where there is substantial risk in being long the market at this time. We believe that any market strength during the near future will represent a counter-trend rally that always occurs after a sharp sell- off as we recently witnessed. After this rally phase ends, we expect to see a retest of the recent sell-off lows. If the lows don't hold, being on the short side of the market will produce the greatest return on a risk-reward basis. Our MIRAT-Rydex Growth Portfolio is 100% invested in Rydex Ursa fund per Thursday's hotline. This portfolio has increased 9.4% year-to-date. This portfolio is lagging the S&P 500 by a few points, but is well ahead of the 4.8% gain of the average U.S. equity fund and the 3.2% gain of the Investor's Business Daily mutual fund index of 23 funds. The current status of our timing models is as follows: U.S. Growth funds - Sell Short; U.S. Bond funds - Buy; U.S.
High Yield Bond funds - Sell per Tuesday's hotline; International Growth funds - Sell per Monday's hotline; International Bond funds - Sell based on Friday's closing market data; Precious Metals funds - Sell; Asian funds - Sell; European funds - Sell per Monday's hotline; Latin American funds - Sell per Tuesday's hotline

I have seen them all as a soldier. With Y2K what really scares me is that I will see them with my family. In the U.S. the average person is so coddled and incapable of useful work that he will be rendered totally helpless by Y2K. Helpless people can become very dangerous people. Sarajevo gives a hint of how fast things can go from pleasant to horrific. It is a thin line, few are prepared and fewer still have any idea or capability about dealing with it.
Now I am off to collect some green and buy some yellow.

Cost of a Beer going up, can chips and dip be far behind.

HighRise

All
Isn't there another BIS announcement scheduled for mid-August? Maybe on the same day Slick Willie does his Jimmy Swaggert impersonation to the Nation. Looking toward Golden days- ( ;- ) ) )
Cheers and good night all - JR.

announcer made brief announcement that wheat prices were at $2.26 ( ? ) per bushel, same price as 40 years ago.
Separately, Texas drought will have major effect on food prices later this year. Still, hotter than hell down here ( temperatures back over 100
again, with suburban cities implementing odd/even water rationing )

Seems honesty, in the form of cut and paste, is alive and well in this august gathering this fine August morn. It is this type of honesty that greets the return of Puetz. The Dow will crash at 6K, no wait, 7K, no, no I meant 8K ( really 9K ) and it will be an eclipse of a heavenly body, perhaps the Moon, Mars, Jupiter, or the Sun, and it is this eclipse which will precipitate the disaster that surely must come, because it hasnt yet and it just must I tell you MUST.. MUST.. because I want to sell my newsletter with the same empty blather ( although most of the letters of the great Puetz, I read in the past were  filled with quotes by other folks. )

When he was last about, the same excuses were offered about the Mighty Ps 1000% batting record of mistaken calls, that make even fumpy appear precognitive in retrospect. Tis a curious laddy indeedy that would come sniffing around these haunts with a record such as his.

Oh well, things never REALLY change at all, do they?


PH in LA -

I find very little to disagree with your "first words", believe it of not. I would like to address the whole gold and goods thingie, and will later today. I spent most of the weekend on the water kayaking. This is an arm intensive exercise and one which leaves the paddler in little wont of spending time at the keyboard afterward. So, this is not a dodge, but an excuse. ( there is a difference )

Until later

Indeedy

No offense intended with my 'generality' about 'coddled Westerners'. You and Old Soldier and many others on this forum have 'been around' and are cognizant of the possibilities. Most of your compatriots and mine, however, are 3 -7 days from starvation and running riot in search of sustenance. I have spent a large part of my life in circumstances where survival was not taken for granted. I have seen more desperation than I care to remember. I know what it does to normally 'civil' people.

I fear that many, including Kitcoites, are so imbued with a safe, cozy life, that they would be in a state of shock should that life not continue. Mental preparation precedes physical, and thus the reason for my posts today.

August 10, 1998

Canada replaces Indonesia as lender in Thai IMF bailout

BANGKOK ( AP ) -- Canada took Indonesia's place today as a lender in the credit line of $17.2 billion US arranged for Thailand by the International Monetary Fund.

Indonesia found itself unable to meet its commitment to a $500 million contribution when its own economy collapsed after the Thai program was arranged in August last year.

Canadian Ambassador Bernard Giroux and the governor of the Bank of Thailand, Chatu Mongol Sonakul, signed an agreement today at a ceremony presided over by Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda.

The Thai credit line consists of $4 billion to come directly from the IMF, 10.5 billion from bilateral pledges, and $2.7 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Tarrin said that out of the $500 million Canadian contribution, $360 million can be drawn immediately.

sharefin, Namaste'. Thank you for the words. I read into the first one all the terrible realities of things to come:
"There is an hissing and surging
Of heavy sea beating hard shore
The rage and the raven of undertow
And the burst and the crash and the roar
And the hard men who sail the great seas
Know well to seek haven and calm
Home, wife and child and the warm hearth
Safe harbour
When the great seas thunder in storm."
No sooner had I sunk into the deep thoughts these words triggered, when suddenly you lifted me to the heights, seeing nothing but beautiful BLUE!:
"Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast ----"

This site would not be the same without sharefin.

stock options on employees. Talks about the chasm between the "haves" and "have nots" at Microsoft. Permanent workers get blue ID badges ( and options ) and temporary workers get orange ID badges ( and no options ) .

Last evening, Goldy, Silvey, and Platonius were snug in their nest.
Today, Silvey and Platonius have flown the coop and tested their wings
I spotted them both in the trees nearby ( dont worry, the spots wash off )
Only Goldy remains in the nest, will she also fly? We will see.
Born Freeeeee As free as the wind bloooooows 

A Proud Surrogate Papa

Long-time observer-analyst on the Far-East, ORACLE of the ORIENT, paints a grim picture of the market sea-change he sees occurring in the entire investment world.

"The last two weeks have witnessed painful sea-changes in paper markets and stellar moves in the gold markets. However, it was August 4th that may go down in market infamy - as it riveted the public's attention!"

ORACLE believes "a secular change in all markets is inescapably materializing."

He asserts "the root source of the sea-change crystallizing in many parts of the world started about one year ago in the Far-East -- where stock markets, currencies and economies have been devastated -- with still no respite in sight."

"Not IF, but WHEN either the Honk Kong Dollar or the Japanese Yen finally craters, the other currency must necessarily be devalued immediately to protect its export industries."

"Although it is difficult to predict accurately which will be the first to succumb to market forces, this analyst believes the Chinese Yuan ( renminbi ) will be the first to throw in the towel. Interestingly, Beijing currency black markets concur with this view."

ORACLE shows a couple of depressingly interesting tables depicting the currency losses and market declines in all Asian countries since the ASIAN CRIS began one year ago. He translates the losses and declines into $US - which is indeed sad. Unfortunately, he foresees the second stage of the Asian Collapse looming on the horizon.

The entire report located at the following URL -- it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/oracle081098.html

1888---President Grover Cleveland, Annual Message to Congress:

 As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the existence of trusts, combinations and monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the peoples masters...

1913---President Woodrow Wilson in The New Freedom, New York 1913

The masters of the government of the United states are the combined capitalists and manufacturers of the United States.

April 29 1938----President Roosevelt told Congress:

 The statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity.

 Close financial control, through interlocking spheres of influence over channels of investments, and through the use of financial devices like holding companies and strategic minority interests, creates close control of the business policies of enterprise which masquerade as independent units. That heavy hand of integrated financial and management control lies upon the strategic areas of American industry. Private enterprise is ceasing to be free enterprise and is becoming a cluster of private collectivism; masking itself as a system of free enterprise after the American model, it is fast becoming a concealed cartel system after the European model.

FWIW Take CAre

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
The next week? Around 8/14 I would look for the market to hover around the 8450 range, perhaps lower. The following week, on 8/17 the grand jury that Ken Starr has in session should hear Bill's testimony. Then, the week of the 21st, I look for the impeachment report ( read John Crudele's damn insightful columns, especially "How Clinton's Woes will Rock the Market" in the NY Post to track this while I'm gone, OK? ) to be issued to Congressman Hyde's committee. This will shock the country and result in the low - short term.

Following this, I look for the spin Dr's on the WH staff to turn it around - and a rally back to 8700 occur, then it's look out below to the 6000 level in Sept, perhaps in time for option expiration in Sept. That's the track based on historical precedent. But the caveat continues to be: this is not advise - get your own - but it is merely my commentary on some odd parallels to historical events.

Now look at foreign exchange rates: The US buck is incredibly strong. Canadian currency is down to $0.662 US - It's no coincidence that CA$-land is where we're going on vacation. Ditto the yen - down to the 145 area. This time, with no Clinton trip to the region, the pressure to intervene around 145.8 is gone. More importantly, the new government in Japan is talking protectionism. Specifically the new MOF boss is talking about "delaying the Japanese market reforms" that were supposed to open their markets to free trade for outsiders. Seems they have a double standard on the free trade issue - and for political reasons, the US is not willing to draw lines in the sand. The containers of goods coming into this country keep getting cheaper.

None of any of this would matter, except that as Japan goes protectionist, and allows their yen to sink, the more pressure that puts on other currencies in the region. They don't have a choice in this: They are in a Depression. So I would look for the Phase 1 of the possible meltdown this fall to be political, and Phase 2 to be the Chinese currency devaluation, which I expect not later than mid October, based on how the new Japanese government is talking. Y2K and other issues ( Russia, etc ) , while certainly real, are minor irritants in comparison.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Folly, Frenzy and Fear, those Careless are
The fates that mould our destinies, and shape
The grave dishonesties, deceits, that mar
Our work, our very loves, our art
Stir the dark anxieties, the mortal pains
The dark and deadly pride that stains
The living dying heart.

We mime the random measure of their art
Act out the torment of their aimless play
Suffer all things with numb unfeeling heart
The less their willful torment day by day
Or wanton, toss to waste our life in play.

Only that man,
Who steadfast stands apart
And cries his manhood, cries aloud - I AM
Will be free of such dire fates
Only thus be saved,
Be his own man.

August 7, 1998

German group announces corporate university to teach global goals

FRANKFURT, Germany ( AP ) -- Looking ahead to its merger with Chrysler, German automaker Daimler-Benz announced the opening Friday of a corporate university to school executives on both sides of the Atlantic on the new firm's goals.

Daimler-Benz Chairman Juergen Schrempp said Friday the university was the first of its kind in Germany and would co-operate with leading business schools worldwide.

The university will be managed from the Daimler-Benz' headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, said spokesman Marc Binder. Seminars will be held at the European Institute of Business Administration in Fontainebleau, France; the Centre for Executive Education Programs at Hong Kong University; and Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass.

Daimler-Benz plans to enroll all of its 5,000 managers in the university program,
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Daimler-University.html

http://38.209.4.67/perfect.html

http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/j41.html

http://www.swanview.com/ any questions, any, call me 516-425-7185

http://www.calendarresearch.com/autmn_panics.htm>http://www.calendarresearch.com/autmn_panics.htm
Put simply, every market participant should have his calendar marked with the "dark days" of lunar 7-27 and 7-28. Even better, everyone should calculate the time of the eighth new moon and subtract 55 hours from that point. A time window of plus or minus twelve hours from that point is the lunar calendar model for an Autumn panics low point.

From http://www.calendarresearch.com/

Recognized Elliott Wave Theorist forecasts zooming gold price based on his analysis: Joseph Miller says "When we do this arithmetic, we obtain a number of $2,854/oz. When we add this number to the low of Wave 4, we arrive at a gold price objective of $3,131."

Joseph Miller's EWT Report may be seen at the following website. As usual it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet :
http://www.golden-eagle.com/analysis_98/jmiller050598.html

Very soon

Watch your post box-a gift from the O'tay corral, courtesy of STUDIO_R and a disc of Leo from the Island that is Long...

"The thought of living scares me half to death."

Leo Kottke, some time before the century turned...............into what is yet to be determined...uh huh......................

EIR Talks

Interviewer: Tony Papert Guest: Jeffrey Steinberg

------------------------------------------------------------------

TONY PAPERT: Welcome to EIR talks. It's Tuesday, August 4, 1998. I'm Tony Papert, and with me is EIR Counterintelligence Diretor Jeff Steinberg. Jeff, why don't we start with a question everyone is asking: will Ken Starr bring on the great depression of the 1990's?

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, if Ken Starr goes forward as he now seems committed to, and really attempts to bring down the Clinton Presidency, really by an outright, unconstitutional assault, then there is no doubt, that event will be the trigger for the great financial mudslide of the 1990's. And we're looking at something that may very well play out during the month of August. Of course August 17th is the day that Starr has extracted a commitment from President Clinton, at least as of this moment, to appear in deposition form, but really in effect he's being closed circuit TV piped into the Starr grand jury. Starr has, of course, granted total immunity to Monica Lewinsky, which means that she has made a commitment to come in there and read a prewritten script, prepared by the prosecutors in Ken Starr's office. So, it's not any longer Monica Lewisky giving testimony; it's Ken Starr's prosecutors coming up with a script and her delivering a reading of the script. So this is a full scale assault on the presidency.

Now, if you go back, about three weeks ago, when the president's spokesman, Mike McCurry, announced that he was going to be retiring, and going into private business sometime later this fall, the stock market went down by 144 points. McCurry is not a policy maker. He's certainly not the president, nobody voted for him, he's not an elected official, and yet the mere fact that he announced that he was leaving, caused a slight tremor of instability, and the stock market responded with a temporary panic.

Now, in the couple of weeks since that announcement, the US stock market has consistently gone down; I know in a few minutes we'll discuss that whole phenomenon, but the fact is the global financial situation is very precarious, and anything that represents a major shock to the system, and I can't think of anything more shocking than bringing down the institution of the US presidency, on the eve of this great financial uphreaval.

Then, from that standpoint, yes, Ken Starr has it within his power to bring the entire world economy down, and he is just stubborn enough, obsessive enough, committed enough, to destroying the institution of the presidency of this country, that he may very well do it. It may take a women's football team to tackle him and prevent him doing this, or something like that. That's the direction he's going in, and clearly there are factions within the financial oligarchy that are very happy to see that happening at this point, and that are clearly giving their own encouragement to Kenneth Starr.

Because, Starr is not operating on his own. He's not merely some singularly obsessed personality who's been unfortunately thrust into a position of great power. He is a part of the permanent bureaucracy of the federal government, which is a non-elected, powerbase, that has become far too powerful in recent years. In effect, you've got three official branches of the government: the executive branch, the legislative branch, and the judiciary. Everybody has long since acknowledged that the media has muscled its way in to a status of a kind of fourth unofficial branch of government. Now we've got to consider that there's a fifth branch of government, which is the permanent civil service bureaucracy, for which the Justice Department permanent bureaucracy is the enforcement arm. This apparatus in turn, takes its own cues from outside the government.

Generally speaking, within the financial establishment, factions of the financial establishment, in fact the assault on the presidency, is not in the interest of anybody in the United States, so we're probably better off looking overseas to figure out where this is all coming from. Monica Lewinsky, is behaving as if she's been a mole for Benjamin Netanyahu since the very outset. There was a bit of ambiguity about Lewinsky's role in this whole affair, until suddenly, at a critical moment, several weeks ago, she negotiated her plea agreement with Kenneth Starr, and announced that she had been holding on to this dress, for God knows what reason, I mean maybe it's because didn't think it was Ken Starr's size, or something like that, that she held on to it, and has now seen fit to turn it over as part of her plea agreement for herself and for her mother.

So, we're looking at a real hideous spectacle here, which would be laughable, would be the kind of thing that you'd enjoy watching on Saturday Night Live, were it not for the fact that the institution of the presidency and the fate of the entire world economy is at stake here, and so this is a very serious business, and more than Alan Greenspan, Kenneth Starr hold the fate of the world economy in his hands at this moment. Of course, pending President Clinton taking some kind of command decision to put himself back on top of things again.

TONY PAPERT: You're listening to EIR talks, and we'll be right back with EIR Counterintelligence Director Jeff Steinberg.

[break]

TONY PAPERT: Welcome back to EIR talks, this is Tony Papert. With me is Jeff Steinberg, Counter Intelligence Director of EIR. Jeff, the Dow Jones lost 290 points today. It's lost 6% of its whole value since July 17. Is this the long awaited correction, or possibly something more serious?

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, if you would consider electrocuting somebody a form of correction, then maybe the word correction's appropriate. I think that what we're seeing is something far more profound, which is the next phase of the global systemic financial burnout, that is now beginning to impact inside the United States and really in this case, what is going on on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and in the rest of the stock market, is merely a kind of mirror image of what's going on in terms of the physical economy.

Just look back over the recent period, what's occurred. Back early in the spring, that great international Mr. Fixit of the world's economy, Micheal Camdessus, came out and said that the IMF's medicine for Asia was beginning to work now, and that Indonesia would be back soon better than ever, the rest of Asia would recover, Japan would be okay, and that the crisis of 1997 would be looked back upon as a minor blip on the radar screen of progress.

Now, obviously that is not the case whatsoever, and the IMF is running around to every corner of the globe, basically with fire extinguishers trying to figure out some way to prevent some lethal combination of crisis from blowing the whole system out. Indonesia is in the throes of a deep, deep depression. A population whose poverty level had been actually reduced to 11%, that's 3% points below the US population living under the poverty line. Now, you've got 50% of the population living in desperate poverty--eating cockaroaches to stay alive--it's gotten that bad.

Japan. The only thing that's growing in the Japanese economy is the amount of non-performing debt on the ledgers of the major Japanese city banks. The latest estimates we've got from our correspondent, who's just returned from Tokyo, is $2 trillions in non-performing debt. When the second quarter GDP figures for the United States were released last Friday, they showed a net decline of 4% in US Gross Domestic Product over the first quarter of the year. You have major US corporations, like Boeing, posting a 43% decline in profit in the second quarter. Dow Corning, 26% decline in profit.

So, what we've seen now is the unavoidable, undeniable impact of the international financial and economic crisis hitting the United States like tidal wave, and so, it's natural under those circumstances, that you've getting a certain kind of panic. Particularly the sections of the Wall Street market that are being hit the hardest are the technology stocks, and even some of the blue chip stocks that are supposedly the most stable and reliabel. Why? Because big companies like IBM and Boeing operate under the presumption of a certain kind of export earnings heavily emphasizing Asia, that simply aren't there now, and aren't going to be there in the forseeable future.

So there's a certain reality principle to what's going on here. Since the beginning of 1997, Lyndon LaRouche has been emphasizing time and time again, that the stock market bubble, the asset bubble, is going to disintegrate at some point soon, and that the financial oligarchy, particularly the crowd around ******** , has been over the last two to three year period, systematically pulling out of the asset bubble, buying up strategic raw materials, real estate, petroleum, food, the kind of things that they can hoard and sit out a period of chaos and a kind of protracted dark age, figuring that at the end of that process, they'll come out on top. The reason that they've been able to divest of their market shares, is that they've been able to induce a sucker market. You've got more and more Americans abandoning the idea of household savings and jumping into the latest fool's gold rush, called mutual funds, called the stock market, and the sad thing is that it's going to be the small American investors, above all else, who are going to really take the hit when this thing really blows up.

Now, of course a week-and-a-half ago, Fed Reserve Chairman Greenspan came up to Congress, and gave his typical bankerese langauge recipe for the next quarter to the Congress, and he was very open about the fact that we're in deep trouble. As you said, since July 17, the stock market has gradually gone down by 6% of its total value, I think the next declines are going to be not so kind and not so gradual. I think we're going to hit some very rocky collapses over the next period ahead, and then it's anybody's guess where we go as we get into the early autumn.

TONY PAPERT: You're listening to EIR talks, and we'll be back in a moment with Jeff Steinberg.

[break]

TONY PAPERT: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert, and with me is EIR Counterintelligence Director Jeff Steinberg. Jeff, I know you have very current news from Japan. It seems nobody expects the new Obuchi government to last long at all. What's going on there?

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, you've got a kind of a consensus government, that is more or less aimed at defending the status quo -- which is to say, avoiding the kinds of tough decisions, key initiatives, that are required, not just simply to defend Japan, but to stave off a global financial blowout. When Obuchi was chosen as the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then subsequently elected Prime Minister by the Diet, all of the different factions of the LDP were given key positions within the restructured party leadership. So basically, the government itself was a kind of self-preservation society, aimed at avoiding taking the bold initiatives that are needed.

This was really corroborated in spades when Mr. Miyazawa, a former prime minister, was appointed as the head of the ministry of Finance. This, of course, in Japan is the key position. Miyazawa is probably best remembered as the Japanese lap that George Bush threw up into, during his famous gaffe visit to Tokyo towards the end of his presidency. In Japan, Miyazawa is known as Mr. Banker. He is more or less there as a lobbyist for the major Japanese banks, that have no desire whatsover to own up to the fact that they've got $2 trillion in non-performing debt on their books.

A year ago, this figure was placed by some pretty well-placed sources of ours, at about a trillion dollars. So in the last 12 months alone, that figure has almost doubled. About a quarter of a trillion dollars, 250 billion dollars, is new non-performing debt, just in Southeast Asia. And it's no secret that the collapse of the currencies, the collapse of the economies, in places like Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, is creating a big, big strain on the Japanese banking system.

But there's other things as well. The rate of bankruptcies, corporate bankruptcies, inside Japan is skyrocketing. So the general expectation from the political standpoint is that the Obuchi government is given two, three, maybe four months to survive. So, we may be looking at early elections sometime in the fall.

But far more crucial, the failore of the Obuchi government to take the kinds of actions that are needed -- and I'll elaborate on some of those points, which Mr. LaRouche has emphasized in the last few days in discussions with some of our colleagues -- but in the absence of that, we're not simply looking at a kind of a metastable situation. The expectation is that the yen is going to continue to collapse. If the yen crosses, and stays below, the 150 threshhold -- which is to say, more than 150 yen to the U.S. dollar -- then this is going to undoubtedly create a massive flight capital out of Japan, out of the yen, out of the Nikkei. There are people in Tokyo who are saying that the Nikkei could wind up below 12,000. ( Right now it's hovering around 16,000. ) If that happens, then all of Asia is in a blowout.

China, which has pledged to attempt to keep its currency at the present rate, at least until the end of 1998, will be in the position that they've got no choice but to devalue. If you get into this kind of cycle of competitive devaluations, then Asia blows, and if Asia blows, then the whole rest of the world at this point is gone. There is no monetary system left.

Now, the good news is that even though the official government of Japan is in a state of clinical denial, and paralysis, there are many leading people in Japan who are not prepared to take up the sword and commit hari-kari. What I've been told from people who've just returned, literally in the last 24 hours, from Tokyo, is that there's a growing recognition that LaRouche is right, and that there has to be a complete overall of the international monetary system.

There's a great deal of discussion going on now about the need for some kind of return to the principles of the old Bretton Woods System. If there's resistance from certain circles within the European financial oligarchy, then there are people looking at some kind of coordination between the United States and the countries of Asia, to at least get the ball rolling in the direction of a New Bretton Woods arrangement. A return to fixed exchange rates. A writing-off of the vast majority of this non-performing debt, most of which has been parasitically accumulated throw speculation, and not through even bad investment. So, we're at the point now where certain circles in Japan are thinking in those directions.

LaRouche's view is that, in the case of Japan, what's needed is a political revolution. And that does not mean that we want to bring on the Baby Boomers and the Gen-Xers to take over, and really foul things up beyond belief. There are a core of people in Japan, most of them in their 70s, and some of them still kicking around in their crumpled suits in their mid and late 80s, who know what it means to invest in heavy investment, to make long-term investments in infrastructure and production, and who understand the kinds of things that would have to be done to build these policies into the rest of Asia, into Africa, into other parts of the world.

That's the kind of revolution. Revolution doesn't have to be a jacobin model where you go off drooling and killing people. Revolution can be a return to sane principles that have always been tried and tested and proven to work. So this is the kind of things that's needed in Japan.

The Japanese are very neurotic about their relationship with the U.S., and so there's aspects of confusion about the U.S. situation that are a contributing factor to the paralysis in Japan, and that goes back and forth. In particular, I think that what we're seeing in the recent several weeks, is a growing recognition, when President Clinton is not completely pre-occupied with Monica Lewinsky's dress, or Kenneth Starr's dress, I guess who's now officially in possession of it -- that he's keenly aware that the global financial crisis demands his urgent attention. The gap in understanding and policy outlook between President Clinton and Lyndon LaRouche is narrowing by the day, and this both very good news, and also the kind of thing that sends Clinton and LaRouche's political enemies into flight-forward, as we've seen with Kenneth Starr's latest antics over the last few weeks.

TONY PAPERT: You're listening to EIR Talks. We'll be back in a minute with Jeff Steinberg.

[break]

TONY PAPERT: Welcome back to EIR Talks. This is Tony Papert. With me is Jeff Steinberg, EIR's counterintelligence director. Jeff, you began by discussing the crisis in Japan; you jumped across the Atlantic to here; you may have left some of our listeners in the middle. Why don't you tie it together?

JEFF STEINBERG: I actually flew by the Pacific route back to Washington, not the Atlantic.

Now, it is very important that people see the interrelationship between Japan and the United States. Japan for a whole variety of reasons, most of which you can write off to neurosis, has a very sensitive view of the United States at this point. President Clinton just made a major policy initiative towards China, with his 9 day visit to Beijing and other parts of China, clearly signalling that there's a new emerging U.S.-China strategic partnership. The Japanese are having a kind of national ego reaction to that U.S.-China development, and are sort of feeling that they've been left out somewhat of the Asia equation for the 21st century.

So they are very sensitive to everything that goes on in the United States. So to the extent that there is unclarity, mixed signals, coming out of the United States on the question on how to deal with the global monetary and financial crisis, the Japanese are going to dig in their heels, and try to basically cover for their own banks, and the net effect is that we've got a very volatile, and very dangerous, situation. So, we've got a very particular sensitive relationship between Washington and Tokyo, that has to be nurtured, and to the extent that there's clear signals coming from the Clinton administration, that they're moving in a direction of LaRouche's New Bretton Woods policy, this will provoke a tremendous outpouring of support from elements within Japan who are right now, in the wings, waiting to move in a new policy direction, knowing that the Obuchi government is a disaster waiting to happen, but sadly, the connections are not being made here yet.

So, there's a lot of work that's got to be done, both in Washington, and in Tokyo, to put some sort of clarity into this issue of how to deal with the global financial crisis. I can assure you that governments all over the world, particularly the government in Tokyo and the government in Washington, D.C., are aware in great detail of what Lyndon LaRouche has been saying about this issue, and they've been aware increasingly in recent months, that, where everybody else was wrong, was polyannaish, about the nature of the economic and financial crisis, LaRouche's pronouncements that -- when he was in Japan in December of 1995 -- were considered radical beyond belief, are now seen to be prescient beyong belief.

So, these ideas are out there. Clinton has made a series of statements in the last week. On Friday, he gave a press conference after the release of the U.S. GDP figures, in which for the first time he acknowledged that there is a serious world economic and financial crisis, and it's something that he would like to be pre-occupied with, rather than the Lewinsky-Starr combination of problems on his plate otherwise.

So, it's this Japan-U.S. combination, and the way that they can either positively reinforce, or neurotically reinforce, how these two critical world powers -- the two largest economies of the world -- are going to deal with this crisis.

TONY PAPERT: Now, Lyndon LaRouche has also had a lot to say about the IMF, and at the moment, the IMF is hyperactive, with representatives flitting around the world. They're in Ukraine, they were just in Moscow, Thailand, Indonesia -- in South America -- I mean, what is going on, and can the IMF really do anything about these financial crises which are spreading?

JEFF STEINBERG: Well, the joke that's going around now is that the IMF is going bankrupt itself on its travel vouchers. Seriously, the IMF is down to somewhere between 3 and 8 billion dollars available to spend, and every other bit of money ostensibly at the disposal of the IMF, are funds on escrow from member governments, that they have the right to withdraw, at the first point that a domestic economic crisis warrants withdrawing.

So, the IMF is basically running around giving bad advice, and issuing basically its own form of IOUs, that it can't deliver on. It's an absolute travesty.

You've got a situation now in Russia where the IMF came in in the early part of July, after Chubais came out, who was appointed by Yeltsin to be his special minister to the western fat-cats ( because these were all the people who had built up Chubais as the greatest thing to come along in Russia since Jeffrey Sachs ) . And so, Chubais went around running that Russia needed between 15 and 20 billion dollars, to avoid sovereign default before the end of July. That IMF obliged them. They wrote out an IOU for $21 billion in funds that are going to be disbursed, both this year and next, both from the IMF and from this General Agreement on Borrowing ( which is this slush fund that they really can't rely on ) .

Now what happened is that, apparently, some people realized that this bailout of Russia was a lot of blue smoke and mirrors, and at best, it may buy a couple of delay in the crisis. So, since the moment that the IMF ``heroic'' bailout of Russia was announced, the Russian stock market has collapsed by 24%. The Trans-Siberian railroad has been subject to a second series of major shutdowns. Boris Yeltsin was forced to cancel his vacation to come back to Moscow -- I assume that what he's going to do is get sick now, and have to go back into some kind of rest-cure arrangement. But, it's political paralysis there, and everyone knows that within a matter of weeks or months, Russia is once again going to be on the verge of sovereign default.

The Ukraine, the same thing. It's a slightly lower price-tag, but the IMF has gone in there with a $2 billion IOU that the Ukrainians are not going to be able to find anybody to cash it in! But there again, August was the month that the Ukraine was facing sovereign default, and so the IMF did their little number there as well.

Now, last week, end of last week, the Washington Post published a rather hilarious interview with Stanley Fischer, the deputy managing director, which I think sort of made the point pretty clearly. What Fischer said is that, gee, there's not a single country that I'm aware of, that's about to go into sovereign default, and therefore I can maybe take a few days off to recuperate. But they acknowledge that Brazil is in a crisis. South Africa, you've got a collapse of the South African currency, the rand. Indonesia. Nothing that the IMF has done, has done anything to improve the situation -- it's only made matters worse. Thailand is in the same kind of situation, and of couse, everybody is holding their breath over Japan.

So the IMF is basically a joke. Some people in the U.S. government, who've long abandoned the idea of the IMF having any sort of worthwhile advice to give, are looking at the IMF as a kind of multilateral slush fund, to throw money, short-term money, at problems, to avert sovereign default, while the Clinton administration gets around to mustering up the courage to take some kind of sustantive action.

So, at best, the IMF is a kind of a loan-sharking operation, dispensing high-priced IOUs, to try to keep the appearance of financial stability, where there is none. So, the IMF is over with. When it was originally created, at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944, it was given a very limited mission - and the mission was simply to provide short-term capital flows to keep curency stability within the fixed-exchange rate regime that was set up at the Bretton Woods Conference

TONY PAPERT: Now, it's almost the opposite. It goes in and tells countries to devalue their currencies.

JEFF STEINBERG: Exactly right, Exactly. It's become the sort of evil twin sister of what it was originally conceived of. And so, the only role that the IMF can conceivably play, of any value whatsoever,is if we do go back to the principles of Bretton Woods which we trashed in 1971; then there may very well be the need for some kind of mechanism to handle the short-term fluctuations, currency-ajustment, balance-of-payments among different currencies. If that's the case, then we're not going to need people like Michel Camdessus running around waving their capes all over the world.

I think another thing that, I think, exemplifies the kind of desperation that we're seeing in this final moments of the global IMF system, is the events that took place in Brazil last week. The world's biggest privatization took place last week, which was the sell-off of the state-sector telephone company of Brazil, called Telebras. The sale garnered the Brazilian government $19 billion.

Now, before anyone out there faints with oohs and ahhs about what a stupendous accomplishment this was, to raise $19 billion in the auction of an outmoded telephone company, consider what the Brazilians have bought as the result of selling off one of the key parts of their national patrimony. That $20 billion amounts to about three months worth of interest payments on the foreign debt of Brazil. So, what happened is, the phone company was sold off, and as the result of that, the Brazilian government has enough cash around to fend off their debtors for the next four-month period, which, not coincidentally, gets you immediately past the next presidential elections in Brazil.

So, the entire sector involved in communications, sold off to a combine of foreign buyers,and all they get for it is a four-month delay in what inevitably is going to have to be a write-off of a very good portion of that non-performing, aritifically created foreign debt. This is what we've come down to.

LaRouche, in February of 1997, called for a war of annihilation against the IMF. He didn't exactly have in mind that he was going to recruit Dick Armey, and Newt Gingrich, and the Republican leadership fo the House, to be one of the instrumentalities for declaring the death knell to the IMF, buyt if that's the way these things play out, so be it. We created enough of a head of steam, created the sense of the IMF as an enemy image, and as the result of that, a lot of politicians jumped into the fray. It's an election year, I can hardly say it's anything other than "smart politics." So, goodbye to the IMF.

end of transcript

Its Y1K All Over Again
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/tech/FredMoody/moody64.html

It's the end of the world as we know it.
http://www.irish-times.com/irish-times/paper/1998/0810/cmp2.html

~~~~~~~~~
It's almost like the PPT are at work.
Everytime the Dow tries to break lower they hit the premium.
But the selling continues...

http://www.nypostonline.com/commentary/4185.htm

Re sharefins post on perfect tops:
The following shows momentum of a varied selection of widely followed mutual funds; note that the preponderance of them show highs of either July 17, 1998 or July 20, 1998.
The only ones which dont are tech funds which show highs of October 1997! I admit that I haven't a clue where E. Wave theory is concerned ( waves make me seasick ) , But this certainly makes me wish I did. If this url does not work, I will endeavor to type it out
later. http://www.fabian.com/members/premium/hotline/momentum/noload8.html

area has not come to pass and may not happen until end of month:
therefore, I will not be there. Sounds like a great place and I hope everyone has a lot of fun and great time and will try to catch you on next trip to NYC area. Namaste.

Posting that lond transcript with the usual Democratic spin on WJCs problems served no purpose except to waste Barts bandwidth and the length of time it takes to read such drivel. in future please just put a title and url for tohose who have nothing better to do than read that crap. Thanks

may your sails always be filled with the beatitude of laughter...

This is a happy story about being a retired soldier. Maybe
some of the vets on Kitco would enjoy your sharing whatever
you can add to my little contribution.

When I retired, the Social Security counselor asked if I had
a DD214. I responded that I had four honorable discharges.
She asked me to provide all of them, along with all of the
other paperwork.

The happy part...if I have it figured right, all of my military
time means $57 more a month in social security. Not much, but
it is a little thank you for doing something for our country.

Gay couple discounts and Gov't preference in hiring gays; I do not believe what I am hearing/seeing. Sorry to even post this, know I should not. Some things are best left unsaid.

whoever can go and watch CNBC, it is coming up now!!

Very soon.

House Judiciary, currently in recess, isn't expecting Starr's report until first week in September. Also, the Associated Press is reporting this a.m. that Starr's report will focus on Lewinsky.

still things shorts are in command, over the next week will buttom, than will move higher, he talks like a kitcoite, first time I hear something positive said on CNBC about pre. met.
so let's hang in there, fellow Goldbugs, our time will come
l_b

he thinks of course, sorry for the typpo

Any discussion is bound to be negative.

....no, was not negative, and thats so positive, finally ,

I'm wrong again,happily

..he said if dow tanks ( my words ) money will go into pec. met. !!!!!

Can you make a brief summary of what was said on CNBC?

also mentioned that summer is historical a slow time for the prec, met.

A Glimpse Behind Russian Lines

Riveting in its images, concise and lucid in its printed narration but unfathomably confused in organization, "World War II Through Russian Eyes," the new exhibit at the Ronald Reagan Building, may only further deepen American ignorance about the former Soviet Union's "Great Patriotic War" against Hitler.
Full story
( Washington Post )

The United States lost about 300,000 men and women in World War II, the United Kingdom some 400,000. The Soviet Union lost 27 million.

Most Americans have small appreciation of how heavily the outcome of the war hinged on what happened on the Eastern Front, and for 30 years the nation's Cold War mentality discouraged any deeper understanding.

Yet the scale of the battles of which we know so little almost defies comprehension. The Battle of Kursk alone, the largest tank battle in history, involved 6,000 tanks, 4,000 aircraft and more than 2 million troops on a front nearly 500 miles long. Compared with that, even abattoirs such as Iwo Jima look like bar fights.

http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/webnews/rwebnews.html

....what worries me now is , a devaluation of china's currency, that will really get the POG down to the level fibonacci-followers ( not sure about the name ) are warning us !

I never understood why a Chinese devaluation is seen as the lynchpin of Asian economics. Japan just devalued it's currency by 12% since it was 128/$US. As the second largest economy on this spinning planet why is there no sense of horror and gnashing of teeth like when people speculate about Chinese devaluation?

I am sure it is obvious and I will be shown to be a dummy when I hear the explanation.

CNBC talkes about Wall Street becoming negative, a turnaround for PM's must be near. I had thought there might be one last rally for the DOW but I'm not so sure now. I don't think a crash scenerio is in the cards yet, barrring some major global event. The PPT will do everything to try for a soft-landing.

I encourage you to post a bit more frequently in the future. There has been many a time when I wondered what Old Soldier would say about something that was put forth here.
Thanks.
not sam_A, just plain
sam

When stocks no longer are in demand, and folks are off vacation, and gold goes to 280. Throw in value investors. It is possible.

Even if there is no crash of systems, the velocity of money in the economy stands a high chance of being slowed down. It is almost a certainty that just perceptions of liquidity problems will cause more people to hold cash which, coupled with the reserve multiplier of bank lending, will temporarily cause liquid cash to become scarce.

If non-compliant Y2K participants, in the vast and fast moving international interbank monetary system, cause the system to slow down for any reason, slowed payments will ripple throughout the system quickly.

Who cares, right? Well from macroeconomic theory MV=PQ where
M=Money Supply
V=Velocity of money
P=Prices
Q=GNP

If velocity decreases, either M must increase or PQ must decrease in some combination. A money supply increase would be inflationary ( or should be ) . A decrease in P or Q would be a deflationary scenario where output falls and prices must be reduced to induce money back into the marketplace.

I feel the Federal Reserve will pump liquidity ( money/deposits ) into the markets instead of opting for a slowing economy. The bubble effectively gets bigger becasue of Y2K.

The risk of panic, which will pop the bubble, is also a high probability event. With reserve requirements at 3% of transaction accounts, money will quickly leave the banking system if people run on the banks.

http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/info/policy/res-req.html

We stand to get hurt by inflation or deflation, or both in that order. Slow earnings, Asia, and this temporary liquidity crunch during the CHRISTMAS SEASON are alot for us to handle all at once ONE YEAR FROM NOW! This finely tuned market is set to go offroad!

It's because everyone else has and they haven't...yet.

Didn't see it, I'm at work

Didn't Russia sign an agreement with russia to partition Poland. Weren't the Baltic countries given to Germany. Screw Russia.

Excuse the typo. A non agression pact was signed between Russia, and the Nazis. They were wary buddies. The Baltics were used as pawns by Russia. They were not Big Heros in this war. When it blew up in their faces, they fought heroically. They had to.

Stalin & Hitler...partners in Hell. May the human race be spared their likes ever again.

Something tells me the worst one is yet to come.

Question 7: What changes, if any, do you plan to make with your finances if it becomes apparent in mid-1999 that companies will not solve this problem by Jnauary 1, 2000?

"Take your money out of the bank or other investment vehicles and put it under your mattress/hide it in your house." 25.3%

"Don't know." 48.8%

400 responses being 99.5% of the total responants

From a list of actions given what do you anticipate doing before 1/1/2000, after 1/1/2000 or not different before or after 1/1/2000

Close a bank account: before 32%, after 12.8%, no change 51.5%

mean income US$55,600

~~~~~~~~~~

Can you spell b-a-n-k r-u-n ? Can you spell h-a-v-e-n-'-t g-o-t a c-l-u-e ? Of course you can! Its a wonderful day in the neighborhood.

6pak ( FWIW @ Russia @ WWII & 27 Million Dead & Cold War )

Very impactful history. The final irony is that Mother Russia was ultimately dissected into many tiny pieces. Very sad hstory.

eating locust flowers and wild honey. wearing camelshair cloaks and leather girdles. saying "repent for the Kingdom of God is at hand". having their heads handed to them .. or someone else.

Am 100% cash. Tracking gold every day. Might play at some point thru mutual fund. Won't buy any more stocks. "I Fell Good Do, Do, Do, Do, Do." The James Brown from South Carolina ( Studio ) .

'When you're goin to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in your hair". How about the bald ones? Stick um where the sun don't shine.

vonsky, old friend, I usually agree with much of what you say, and I agree that Russia has had some VERY unfortunate and sad epochs in her history, however the breaking up of the U.S.S.R. does not make my eyes weep. I tend to think that millions of the formerly subjected 'citizens' of the various republics would agree.

Hello Puetz,

Could you please explain to us why is it that the Dow didn't collapse after November 4th 1997 if indeed it was in a weak position and ready to do so? ( Instead, it shot up more than a 1000 points in the following weeks. )

Also, why is it that the pressure in the cash market of Gold didn't force the hand of the Gold short sellers like you said it soon would? ( Instead, Gold went down to reach new lows in the following weeks. )

Thanks.

Date: Tue Nov 04 1997 18:52
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#170235:
My analysis today is the same as yesterday. US stocks put in a weak rally on yet another day of declining volume. While the US market did not turn down today, stock markets around the world did. The DJIA remains in a weak position -- ready to collapse. Gold will fare better during the next stock market collapse. The rise in the gold-lease-rate a week ago indicated tremendous buying pressure in gold at that time. Pressure in the cash markets will soon force the hand of the gold short-sellers

Sorry, vronsky!

Russia's sacrifice........The premier example of the benefits of socialism.

DOW up 35, NASDAQ and S&P both up.

You playing this rally ( kidding ) .

Isn't the downside of a Chinese depeg that if the yuan drops there will be even less of a Chinese market for American goods and products, plus the rub-off on Hong Kong for the same reason? Also just the evaporation of assets that happens when a currency devalues for a growth economy like China--they have less to buy our raw materials and goods with. Japan isn't a growth economy, its in recession currently, although the Japanese are buying US mutual funds with their savings--they are more savings oriented not buyers of goods and products like China would be. ( They all have telephones already in Japan and Hong Kong--we weren't planning on selling products to them as I see it, the way we were to China. ) Americans will be the only ones who can buy our stuff--on the other hand anything made overseas looks pretty attractive to me at the mall, clothes, etc., priced way down--even silk shirts for a few dollars!

Are you long the market?

http://www.jsonline.com/news/0810starr.stm

Scared democrats as badly as he scared Russians. What does that tell you. PUUUULEAS dont be mean to Russia. Please dont be mean to Castro. Don't help the Freedom Fighters in Nicaragua. Maybe democrats could go to Russia or Cuba and let us have a descent country again.

Yes, all of that plus it will trigger a new round of falling currencies among the asian countries who compete with the Chinese.

Each collapsing pole in the currency tent puts that much more weight on the remaining poles.

Here is my understanding of why it is important.

The more devalued the Yen becomes, the more attractive their products become for export because they are effectively cheaper. Very simple example I have experienced; I tinker with radio controlled airplanes, an example of the finest motor you could buy ( from Japan ) sold for $350 one year ago. Today that motor is $200 and they are offering a $25 cash rebate in addition to that!

This gives Japan a natural competitive edge in export sales and threatens every other country that exports for a living. China is a prime example.

If China does not devalue, they can't compete.

When China does devalue, it will amount to pulling the rug out from under Japan. Japan will have to devalue further to retain an edge and so on and so forth until they are selling somthing for virtually nothing. Reality is they collapse. I believe that will occur before our November elections.

Will

Ronald R. Reagan also brought us asset forfeiture laws. Prior to RRR, asset forfeiture laws were a tax enforcement "tool". Now, thanks to RRR and the war on drugs, asset forfeitures are a commonly used law enforcement technique. Maybe he should go to...too!

What you did not say is that the US trade deficit will increase versus all of the Asian countries. That will put pressure on the US Dollar and the US bond market. THAT, coupled with poorer earnings of US companies from Asia, will undermine the stock market.
What happens then, I couldn't tell you, except that the price of gold should rise in US Dollar terms ( if I fully understand some of the other posters correctly ) . More info from other posters please.

COMPUTERWORLD ( Aug 6, 1998 )

Link: http://www.computerworld.com/home/news.nsf/all/9808064feds

Federal and state officials are scrambling to ensure that the year 2000
problem won't give their vast network of data exchanges the
electronic equivalent of a heart attack.

"We're all late," said Peter Sullivan, director of Connecticut's year
2000 effort. "The states are late, the federal government is late -- it's
almost too late to say we're late because of where we are." . . .

The federal government has some 500,000 electronic data exchanges
that operate among federal agencies, states, local governments and
private companies. New York State, for instance, has nearly 800
electronic links with federal systems in its top 40 mission-critical
systems.

Government agencies must find all these links, reach an agreement on
how they are going to pass along date-related information -- whether
in two-digit or four-digit formats -- develop bridges or filters when
needed to prevent incoming data from corrupting systems, and test
these systems, say officials involved in these efforts.

The GAO, in its report, said less half of the 42 federal agencies it
surveyed had finished inventorying and assessing data exchanges for
year 2000 compliance on mission-critical systems during the first
quarter of this year. Only two states told the GAO that they had
accomplished that task.

The GAO said that "little progress has yet been made in completing
key steps such as reaching agreements with partners on data formats,
developing and testing bridges and filters, and developing contingency
plans for cases in which year 2000 readiness will not be achieved."

But some are disputing the GAO report's findings. The federal Office
of Management and Budget said the report didn't "fairly characterize"
the efforts and that the GAO's January survey was conducted too
soon. "We believe that if the data had been collected even one month
later, the results would have been markedly different," said G.
Edward DeSeve, an acting deputy director at OMB, in the agency's
statement.

A similar response came from state officials, who were also buoyed
by the attention federal officials gave to data exchange issue last
week. . . .

Have you been doind lots of hard drugs? The fall of Comunism is the best thing in world's recent history..Maybe you can top it?

E V E N T....................ESTIMATED COST

World War II..................$4,200.000,000,000

Millennium Challenge.........$600,000,000,000*

Vietnam Conflict................$500,000,000,000

Kobe JAPAN Earthquake....$100,000,000,000

Los Angeles Earthquake........$60,000,000,000


( * ) $600 billion translates to a per capita cost $2,220 per every man, woman and child in the US.

Sources: Gartner Group and Congressional Research Service

DON'T BE A SCHMUCK --- TAKE PRECAUTION

If you are still calm and collective in the face of this looming problem, while everyone around you is frantically running around in circles and wringing their hands, perhaps you may not fully understand the situation. That being the case, you might do well to peruse our Y2K Index of reports at the following URL. BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY!

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/y2kndx.html

Glad to hear that, latest estimate I have from them says my SS Payment will almost be equal to my Retired Pay, ( I am not however holding my breath ) .

Link: http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html

The electric power utilities are among the organizations with the
greatest exposure. Utilities that have completed a thorough
assessment program have generally elected to test all embedded
systems, including those with existing documentation, due to
significant variations between observed performance and
documentation. There are as many as ten technological viewpoints
affecting the Year-2000-compliance of an individual embedded
system in a particular application that may be affected by the chip
maker, the OEM, the end-user or various combinations. . . .

Estimates place the assessment, repair and testing phases of a
Year-2000 conversion effort for a medium sized non nuclear plant at
21 months. It will take 30 to 40 million dollars to locate, repair and
test the 500 or more non-compliant systems out of the tens of
thousands in a typical plant.

I'm not arguing that the fall of communism was bad or wrong. Certainly President Reagan served us well in that respect...although it appears communism is certainly not dead. But asset forfeiture laws might be the greatest single threat to our "domestic" freedoms in US. Check it out: http://www.fear.org/

With Indonesia near total collapse you have to wonder why the mainstream press is ignoring the opportunity to give North Americans a first hand account. The U.S. Dollar is on the verge of total collapse and all this talk about 0 inflation is about to come to an end. As the World moves towards the Euro trillions will be repatriated and Greenspan and Rubin will run out of buyers! Rampant inflation will push up interest rates and the super power status will shift one more time.........

I'm not trying to top you, simply trying to point out the inconsistencies of American politics. Oh, no drugs here, please.

I think the law is good in a very limited way. I think most democrats should be expatriated to either Russia or China. They are responsible for gays and lesbian acceptance as an 'alternnative lifestyle". Our TV and kids are sorry as hell. We will be punished for what is going on now. Satan is happy.

RANGY, DROOY AND HGMCY are performing very well today considering gold is down. These three stocks seemed to have bottomed out with sellers being hard to find. Buyers are not plentiful either but gold is down and that is to be expected. IMHO we have seen the bottom and now have to wait for a major change in Japan that will turn the dollar down. This may be our last opportunity to accumulate stocks and gold at these prices.

and we wonder why Rubin is so eager to push $1000 T-Bonds to the American Public ... chuckle ... letting the "average American" get a piece of the action ... bigger chuckle ...

what next? $100 T-Bond?

Forced wage confiscation ... er ... "investment" ... into these worthless pieces of slave paper?

Spud: Impeach ... Impeach ... Impeach ...

Any thoughts as to how the Euro will fare under Y2K? If Europe is less well prepared for Y2K than US will the Euro be that much stronger? And for how long?

That makes cash sound even better doesn't it?

Spud Master "...and we wonder why Rubin is so eager to push $1000 T-Bonds to the American Public ... chuckle ... letting the "average American" get a piece of the action ... bigger chuckle ..."

what next? $100 T-Bond?

Naaah, you don't really know H.M. Robert Rubin. He'll most probably emulate the initial marketing success of most mutual fund by coming out with a TEN DOLLAR T-BOND. ( :- ) )

The article you linked to in your 12:49 basically says that Starr's report contains little of substance beyond Monicagate.

The president's actions would seem to agree:

Starr has been investigating Clintler for months, and the pres has blithely continued on as though there were no investigation.
And guess what? Clintler knows what he's guilty of, so he knows if Starr
is getting close to anything damaging. ( My point: Starr *isn't* close )

Now that Monica is 'spilling the beans' ( pun intended ) the Whitehouse is suddenly looking into removing Starr ( via Reno ) , discrediting him, having the president 'come clean' ( another pun! ) to the American people, etc. etc. ( Sudden flurry of activity... Starr finally has something. )

I hope and wish that Starr has found something of more substance than this and that his report will contain real facts and dates ( as some claim ) to catch Clintler in action ( Selling our foreign policy to China, renting out the whitehouse, weakening the military, and so on ) , but Clintler seems to be made of Teflon.

We'll all soon see what he can do to avoid Monicagate.

Regards,

MG ( We watch this old equities market go into to toilet together, yes? )
( Go Gold! 3-2-5 on 11-11? Could be. )

Excellent. It looks to me like he needs more market and he is letting in the suckers. I expect he sees a bunch of stuff coming in from overseas and he needs as much cushion as he can get

Don't forget it is often the happy satan that breaks his own tools ( people ) when the project is exposed and near the end.
Nicodemus

We might have some surprises from Starr. Bear in mind that info comes from Associated Press. A little salt, please...

Most "coddled" Americans ( & residents of other "modern" countries ) have never been weaned from having food delivered at their slightest demand. Same for the rest of the necessities of life. Most are comfortably enfolded in warm, cars, dry houses and cozy beds. Losing electricity is not just an inconvenience but a major catastrophe. They will miss their favorite TV shows, the light switches won't work and the microwave will be useless and they won't be able to open a can of soup.

They have all this "money" in their mutual funds, pension funds, stocks, bonds, etc. They will surely be in a bind when their credit cards are denied, their checks are refused, and the ATMs are dead. Even if they have "money" to buy stuff with, the store shelves may be stripped of stuff they needed the most - and if they aren't it will be a war zone to get to those shelves - same for gasoline ( if the gas pumps work at all ) .

Their house with cute wood panel doors and ground-level bay windows won't stand long against vandals and thieves. They will wish they had built the secure "vault" or saferoom to take refuge in as their house is ransacked and maybe set on fire. "Stormcellars" won't seem so crazy after all - but it is too late to build one. When they try to call 911, they may not have a dial tone. If they get through the police may be far too busy with riots and protecting fire crews to respond to "yet another break in".

There will be hoards of have-nots and wanna-have-mores who will be more than happy to take anything they can and have fun with anyone they find who can not defend themselves. Concealed carry will suddenly be necessary for survival - if they have anything to carry besides a baseball bat.

They themselves may descend into animal-like behavior they so despised in others. Instead of vegetarian fare at the local espresso bar they may find themselves cutting somebody's throat for a can of corned beef.

Then again -
all of the above is just a bad dream left over from watching movies and reading apocalypse books. It'll never happen. Clinton won't let it.
Yes?

$US100.5 BILLION to remediate. That's just power PLANTS, not distribution or maintainance systems.

As of May'98 testimony before Congressional Committee, 8 of 10 of the largest power generating/distributing corporations ( representing 67% of US electrical power supply ) said they were still in the assessment/inventory phase.

If they do what is typical they will try to save their biggest, newest power plants first. This will extend the estimated time to repair. How can they gleefully say that 'we'll be ready' when they do not know what their problem is ( must have finished a/i in order to determine the entent of the problem ) . In May'98 the power industry in the USA was not even off the blocks in terms of beginning of repair efforts.

That was 20 months from the deadline.

~~~~~~~~~

Let's do some math here.

May 1998 to December 1999 = 20 months

time to repair a medium sized power plant = 21 months

21 months from 20 months = -1 month

Any MEDIUM sized power plant OR LARGER can not be repaired as of the start of April 1998.

80% of the 67% of power utilities will not repair any of their medium or larger sized power plants.

It can be reasonably guestimated that at least 67% of that 67% of power production will not be fixed ( larger power plants have been prefered over smaller plants ) . 0.67 * 0.67 = 0.4422 or 44% of US power production ( produced by the largest conglomerates ) will fail to be remediated.

Let's also reasonably suggest that the 67% is representative of the remaining 33% but that only 33% of their generators are medium or larger in size. 0.33 * 0.33 = 0.1089 or 11% of US power production ( produced by the smaller companies ) will fail.

44% + 11% = 55% of US power generator plants will fail to be remediated by at least a month and possibly much longer.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

This assumes that everybody can pull on the equipment suppliers simultaneously to obtain Y2K compliant replacement parts. The estimate is that 500 controls in each medium sized power plant will need correction. If this ratio holds to scale then roughly 3,350,000 controllers will need to be identified and repaired all at the same time. Compare this with the annual production statistics for the producers of these controllers, please. It is a few orders of magnitude more than what they produce each year.

~~~~~~

Dady, can you read me a night time story? I'm scared.

I'm sorry Johnny, but we can't spare the batteries in the flash light. They're the only ones we have left.

Dad?

What son?

Will things ever get better again?

I don't know, son. I don't know. Maybe in a year or two. Until then we will do the best we can, won't we?

I'm tired of being cold and hungry.

I know, son. So am I. Good night.

percentage ( less than 10% ) of Starr's report will have to do with Monica.

I tend to think, that Starr would have "cut it off" if there weren't some substance there.

WHAT IS YOUR THINKING ON THE NEW U.S.A. CURRENCIES ON THE "INTERNATIONAL" AND "DOMESTIC" ASPECT?.

Talks of the overload of information ( I prefer to call it data ) that instead of giving us the ability to act in an informed manner, it cripples us. Does anyone else besides me feel this way? Go to golden eagle site and find the article by Oracle.

gulp...516-425-7185 tolerant1@msn.com let me know when you will be up and about near the Apple...given enough notice we can take in a Giants and or Yankee game...hot dogs don't ya know....yeah buddy...

Be safe out there Clintler is still President...ah...haaaaaaaaaa...

Spoke to the Universe Master himself this mornin'...Tolerant_1!! What a GIANT. This kitco.......yes, this kitco. I am humble and proud.
Can't make the Island that is Long chautauqua this Sat.....Baton Rouge calls, regretably. But my soul will attend...I assure you.
Been trying to make contact teddO...no such luck so far....I'll get 'em.
And, as always, GO GOLDBUGS!!!!! Salud maximus to T#1!!!! G&P.

...hopefully upon your arrival at the Swan such will be on your pillow along with the Lantern...if not I shall greet you with same...

War is hell! USofA also had a pact with Hitler eh! Canada was at war long before USofA entered the Second world war. As you no doubt are aware, the USofA was a neutral country at the start of both world wars. ( Dec. 07 1941 ) Many deals were made with Hitler and the USofA Corporate agenda. Do consider the position of USofA corporate elite and their conduct, before, during, and after the WW II, you could discover a degree of understanding of the reasons for the two world wars I & II. Yes, the question should be answered, "Why was there a need for both world wars?" Democracy/Liberty/Freedom and Peace ?

Note:
After the war was over , General Electric, International General Electric, Krupp, and several General Electric and Carboloy officials were found guilty of conspiracy and fined $53,000, a mere bagatelle for a billion-dollar corporation whose loyalty to monetary gain transcended loyalty to country.

According to a report of a committee of the United States Senate of which Senator Harry S. Truman of Missouri was chairman. This report, issued on June 18 1942 declared:
" This committee has repeatedly concluded that the work of the office of Production Management and War Production Board has been hampered by the extent to which their personnel was predominantly drawn from big business groups...The attitudes and associations which these men have acquired through the years...make it undesirable to rely upon them exclusively for the war production programs"

With the cost plus contracts, special bonuses, and fat incentives, with billions of the people's taxes being spent to build plants from which the industrialists drew huge profits.Profits were rolling into the American trusts in a golden flood.

May 01 1945 Berlin fell, All over Europe, the people were armed, men and women, farmers, fighting youth, conservatives and communists alike, they thronged the streets of towns and cities, demanding that monopoly's collaborators with fascism be executed. Petain, marshall of the French Army, was soon to be in prison, and Laval, the French premier who had handed his country over the the Nazis was executed along with some of the greatest generals of Prussia. From Manila to Peking to Warsaw to Prague and Budapest, the rich collaborators with fascism were fleeing.

FWIW, Take Care

Recently had to go to Vegas for a weekend seminar so had my travel agent find me the cheapest fare from Dallas. Turns out the cheapest deal was a charter flight that left DFW at 7 a.m. on a Friday. That suits me okay, so I get to the airport at 6 a.m. to check in. At 6.45, they make an announcement that the plane has some mechanical trouble in Oklahoma City and flight will be delayed until 9.30 .Well, no-ones real happy about it, but what else are you going to do but wait ? About 9 am. the airline makes another announcement. "They are trying to find a replacement aircraft and HOPE to leave DFW by 3.30 pm." At that point, we have a near riot and the gate attendant has to call airport security to help her out.
I have never seen so many people get upset over a flight delay. Absolutely incredible. No-one was happy about it but the way some people react was very scary.

Right On Spud Master! Impeach, Impeach, Impeach!!! Unfortunately, it is to late...so now the gov't has to shift the blame to the citizens so that they don't take the wrap for it..."It's the peoples fault for not buying our/their debt...".

With you all the way.... The information age is quite the opposite.
There is more disinformation and junk to sift through and few have been taught how to sift. I treasure wisdom more than information as information is just that and not always truth. The information to desire in the market is what new rules are being created each day that those who create them don't want us to know and how can we find out and act on this information. Behold the many beliefs touted about the future of gold. What is really the game?
Info overload is stifelling. ( spelling ) Also the time waisted reading data should not take one from the task of learning wisdom. Wisdom 101, one should know that there are few if any easy, linear thinking no brainer ways to make wealth. Wealth over time through complicated means and opportunities are generally the rule.
Putting hope in wealth for happiness is folly. Learning truth about a matter is difficult but not always impossible. ( the media of this age seems to make it harder ) .
We contrarians aren't always right, just guessing against the masses.
Nicodemus, still searching for the truth....

Star will decimate Clinton with his report...I've seen people like him before...very quiet...very methodical....and then bam! You're dead...he's got you dead to rights...all of it true and documented...nothing left out...Clinton is done, Period!

I agree and sure hope we're right !

testing

Would that I could evolve and dream your reality I would be blessed...

I started with SEs, then got an SE-30 for myself. For 3 years I ran my store on this SE-30. Yes it is a GREAT machine. I boosted it to 32MB RAM and a Gigabyte hard drive. For a while I had a card in it to run a Radius Color Pivot. ( I still have the card ) .
Now I have a Quadra 840AV for sales&bookkeeping and basic DTP, etc.
And a PowerMac 9600/35 for DTP/graphics/Net 320MB RAM, two 4GB drives
Nothing from the Wintel world can touch it.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Gold & Silver both dead in the water. No wind for the sails.

Brabo!! I agree. That's the fatal mistake about the Information Age. Data isn't wisdom. BTW, volume seems to be low in the markets while they hover. Maybe people are waiting to see which way it will go before making any decisions. Remember that many have a "buy and hold" strategy and may not have sold stocks up to this point.

Stop by and I will buy you a cup of coffee. You should pass right by my business. If you have time let me know and I will e-mail directions.

Yes, the reason for so many viewpoints is because ther is so much information out there lots of it contradictory. Even scientific information is cooked.

A women poet commented " Wisdom is like the dawn on an unkown ocean".

Looking back about all of what I consider wisdom came quite gradually, like the dawn. I'm outside most every morning with my 4 dogs during the DAWNING.

I'm invested in Canadian jrs. I'm new to the game, bought in in March and am considering putting in some more but Drooy, Alta, stuff like that.

Don't know if you caught the other post.

Dec. Gold @ 291.20 Dec Silver @ 5.348 // It's possible this small
rise can be attributed to the slight decline in the dollar in later
trading. The big question on everyone's mind, though, is....how will
the stock market finish today? My guess is...slightly down. The
dow will close down -25 points, give or take...oh....150. How's that!
Fox-Man

EJ noted that about 3:00 on many occasions, the market drops.

As you said in your post: "Maybe people are waiting to see which way it will go before making any decisions. " That is just the problem, isn't it? The only "facts" that we actually have to go on are from history. Something has to have happened before we can know it to be true.
Unfortunately, that information is usually too late to be of any use for the ones "waiting to see". So they are still deceived ( albeit by "facts" this time ) .

Instead, as Oracle suggests, we need to reach a point where people think and act independently and not follow the crowd. If there were more of this, the stock market and gold prices would surely not be where they are today, I believe.

But when we are basing our actions on independent thought, what reference point shall we choose to know if our thoughts are truly independent of "outside" ( and therefore suspect ) influences? The word "outside" is the key. I believe we should disregard the disinformation from the outside and look within to determine how we really think and feel about a certain situation. If more people's actions were based on their innermost feelings instead of what the predominant media message of the day was telling them, we might actually create something desirable our of the presently mixed up world. This is the only way to regain control, by being proactive rather than reactive.

If you can send me your snail mail address & phone # Lois is leaving for Garmisch on the 28th Of Aug I will stay long enough to close sale on house we got a full price offer Sat so it shouldn't take too long. smithlm@juno.com,thanks

August 10, 1998

Fishing laws favor big business, lawsuit claims

HALIFAX ( CP ) -- Inshore fishermen who say federal quotas have allowed big business to dominate North Atlantic waters filed suit against Ottawa on Monday, claiming the practice is destroying their small coastal communities.

"We will not see the economic and social devastation that is occurring ... and destroying our coastal communities happen any longer."

"Gradually, step by step, year by year, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans has moved in the direction of privatizing a public resource and in the process concentrated ownership of the wealth in that resource in the hands of a few."

Under fisheries legislation, commercial groundfish licences are public property, fishing rights are public rights and fish licences are annual permissions given under controlled conditions, states the lawsuit.

The Fisheries Department "says it's more efficient, it's more modernized, it's better for everybody and in actual fact it's not. What it does is eliminate thousands of people out of the fishery. It concentrates the fishery on bigger boats ( and ) faster technology.... Fish will soon be gone."
http://www.freecartoons.com/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Fish-Suit.html

August 10, 1998

Barricades likely up for a while: chief

POINTE-A-LA-CROIX, Que. ( CP ) -- Mi'kmaq band chief Ronald Jacques suggested today that the barricades erected in a logging dispute likely won't be coming down soon.

Jacques said the protesters could keep up the barricades "as long as they want." But he added the band council would listen to people in the Listuguj community.

If the community asks for the barricades to be lifted, then "we will ask the barricaders to leave peacefully," Jacques said. "We're going to ask the community what they feel about it."
http://www.freecartoons.com/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Que-Mikmaq.html

Exactly the same thing has occured in Alaska. The Gulf and Bering sea are being strip mined for fish, a so called individual fish quota has been established for Halibut anfd Blackcod, and altho not so restrictive, a permit system which puts the fishing rights into the hands of an estabished minority.

Big business now controls most of the fish, the State plays along, the people are ignorant and indifferent. Seethe along with me partner.

Oh yeah, the local Japanese owned processor pays $6.00/hr on the slime line.

The plot has always been the same down through the ages. People are more accepting today as they are becoming gay and dishonest. The Big Red one has a much easier time when the president has "sympathy for the devil".

Would short lucifer technology if I owned it, wich I don't. Excuse the typo. I meant Lucent.

I'm still in cash, but I did go out and throw some gambling money at those extremely out-of-the-money distant puts like I was saying. Hell, bring on the rally, crash, whatever, I've got plenty of time to see how it all pans out.

With more and more talk regarding gold it seems that the xau index is being held in a range and I would suggest that the short position on abx has risen drastically over the last couple of weeks. It appears that the ppt has discovered that the quickest way to control the xau gold index is to control abx. The ponzi game will end sooner or later and gold will move up to more realistic levels.

lease rates for gold are unchanged from last week at 0.80, with
forward rates at 4.85% The one month lease rates are up slightly
from 0.70% the week previously, which represents their near term
lows. The present forward rates are relatively high, up from
4.65% on July 14. Forward rates at this level would indicate
a healthy profit margin on borrowed gold for short selling, but
lease rates themselves show only minor elevations from last week,
indicating that demand for borrowed gold is low.

Those involved in the gold carry are not particularly active at
these spot POGs and this in yet another indication that we
are near a low for gold. IMHO

The perception of how low we could go may change with a Chinese
devaluation and subsequent demise of the yen and other Asian
currencies. The 'flight to quality' would then push up the USD
and push down the perception of the near term low for the POG.

Thanks again Bart.

Every spike in the POG has been preceeded by a period of one
month lease rates below 1% ( like now ) , followed by a steep
rise in lease rates. Then the POG rises. We are not there
yet: the POG is firmly under the heal of the CBs. Soon.
Many CBs will not lease under 1%, and the fact that some will,
is an indication of how desparate some CBs are to keep gold
down. We are .8% away from CB loss of control on the POG.
This constant decline in POG is the reason some of that flight
to quality has not gone to gold, but into a USD which is 30%
overvalued! Go figure.

Really agree with you on the "Age of DISinformation". It is
like I and others have observed. This country is ass-backwards.
It started with Raegan the "great conservative" who bankrupted the
country. Who else could have ? Or maybe it started with Nixon going
to China. Who else could have?

And now Clinton "our savior" who stabs us in the back with all
his executive orders, etc. etc. Always telling us different.

BUT the biggest surprise is yet to be experienced. The biggest
disinformation organization in Washington: Star and his boys.
Like I said on Friday I think he is part of the circus. The Clinton
thing will never get to all those dead bodies and drug deals of the
past three administrations. It's just about sex dear fellow Romans,
it's just about sex.
One last thought. Will Y2K bring the end to this disinformation
age? Who knows? Who cares? Who really controls anything anymore?

CHAOS IS COMING TO A CITY NEAR YOU...SOON

Cheery thought? I don't think so....

Thanks, and GO GOLD ( talk about disinformation!!!!!!!!! ) GD

Thats a pretty smart move I would think.

I thought Tip O'neill and the majority democrats had control of the purse strings under Reagan? Starr hasn't let out what he has yet, has he?

I was talking with my girlfriend this weekend about what was
going on in the world and what might happen and how history just seems to repeat itself. And I asked her why human beings are the way they are,
and she said the following:

As an individual goes thru his or her life they do things wrong, hurt themselves or others, have an "AH HA" and change for the better. But as
time passes so do the rememberances of lessons learned. We regress.
We forget. And we must relearn again and again. So if you take a society
which is made up of millions and millions of individuals all learning
and regressing at diffferent rates and about different things at
different times you begin to see why the cycles of history repeat
themselves.

We all think that there is some big evil "out there" against which
we can do battle and win. But there is no such thing. It is just that
we forget what we have learned. We forget to be loving, we forget to
be understanding and we forget to be tolerant of others.

Needless to say I just sat there and thought, my god that is the
best explaination of history that I have ever heard!!!!

What do you think, should I keep her?

Thanks, GD

BRING IN THOSE BIG DOW DUMPSTERS AND DUMP!! DUMP!!! DUMP!!! DUMP TILL YA' DROP!!! ENOUGH OF THIS BULL SCHEISS! We've got a lot of dumpin' to do between now and four! Gotta' get down to 8,000 by the end of the week before BC gets his arsch hung out to dry! Heh...heh...heh!

Date: Mon Aug 10 1998 00:13
gogold ( Wizened, you've got it exactly - It will go up for all of these reasons and more ) ID#353204:
2 days - $2 325 - 11/11

George, I expect that the citizen/worker/taxpayer has reached a point, were the many, out of fear, will have to fight or run.

Yes, a few are taking a stand, but, the action of fighting by the many, will become necessary, to put a stop to the corporate contol, over our lives eh!

"I can hire half the working class to kill the other half"
Jay Gould, before the 1886 strike on his south-western railroad system.

Be quiet..Consume..And Die eh! Thanks and Take Care

very nicely put.
I agree and try to see what others have to say but some fear to go.
This is true for all trading, but also for thinking about why lines of thoughts are directed towards negative or positive movements to protect or accomplish self-interests and so exploiting the weak and ignorent.
This link leads you to a very unpopular viewpoint:

http://www.jbs.org/y2k.htm

Lakshmi
Namaste! Welcome Oh Goddess of Money!
http://w3.gwis.com/~ajmani/lakshmi.html

A while ago the teller at my bank was named Lakshmi. I always made a point of receiving my cash from her, and, she knew why. Truly, we are blessed to rub shoulders with the gods.


squirrel
Holy Macaroni! You got yourself a ferrari Mac Speedster.

It seems, perhaps because of the speed of this society, that 75% don't think, 15%
think they think but merely rearange thier prejudices, and 10% that actually think. Many of these who think for themselves are in the back thinking up new ways to rob others doing just that, thinking for themselves. The few of us left that think for ourselves unselfishly press on here at kitco and other environs hope for the dawn and prepare for thier worst.
Be not decieved, God is not mocked, for whatever a man sows so shall he reap.
Nicodemus
goo grief, gold!

Rhody,

It seems to me that as POG comes down and companies cut costs by mining higher grade ore and use the crutch of lower currencies, you will reach a point where the cost to mine the ore will not be attractive relative to the price received. There may be many companies that are/might face this dilema soon. The low lease rates show CB desperation but they are destroying their future ability to use this technique unless Gold rises to higher levels. To restore the balance Gold must rise, currencies must go much lower ( unlikely because many social problems will arise, see Indonesia ) or the mighty dollar must fall. With talk of Chinese/Hong Kong devaluation Gold will go lower when this happens and the lease rates will
cease to be useful to CB's at that point.

Gold Dancer
Hold onto that golden hearted woman!

Take her hand! Listen to the music! May you dance together all your days!

I have lost so much money, that I am ready to throw in the towell. Maybe that is a good sign.

CIO INTERVIEW WITH KOSKENIN
( Excerpted )
http://www.cio.com/archive/080198_y2k.html

CIO: What do you do when you're talking with
people at different agencies in Washington to
make sure that they're not just giving you the
answer that they think you want to hear?

JK: I'm encouraging people at the top of the agencies to keep
probing. You have to overcome the great disincentive to
candor. In the private sector, the SEC has required disclosure,
which is important, but companies aren't anxious to say they
could be in deep trouble and go out of business, and watch
their stock fall. In any large organization, nobody wants to go
to the CEO and say, Our part of the enterprise isn't doing so
well, and we could sink this operation. It's important to
establish an atmosphere where somebody can say, "We're
going to have a problem." Anybody can build a contingency
plan around a problem they know about in advance. It's harder
to do that at the last minute.

CIO: What flags does it raise when an agency tells
you that it won't have all its mission-critical
systems fixed in time?

JK: As we move forward, there will be a lot of private
companies and public organizations that discover they're out of
time. My advice is to figure out where the problems will arise
so you can develop appropriate contingency plans.

CIO: What do you see as the biggest challenges
of your position?

JK: Not getting lost in the details. I have people who want to
meet with me from individual states, and if I start doing that for
all 50 I won't have time for anything else. You don't want to
start retailing--as opposed to wholesaling--the problem. My
job is to put the pieces together in a fairly global way. If I get
an indication of a problem in a country or in a sector of the
economy, I have to assume that it might be a universal
problem. So the goal is not to solve the problem once. It's to
say, What can we set in motion to make sure that this problem
is solved across the board?

The other challenge is not to become overly neurotic about
the possible problems. You have to keep a balance. I think
after being a crisis manager for 21 years, I know how to do
that.

CIO: How will your role change going into 1999?

JK: I'll want to move the Council from getting people to pay
attention to trying to monitor where the problems are going to
be. That will help us create contingency plans to deal with
systems failure. By the middle of next year, there will be a lot of
reviewing contingency plans. Then we'll be into the crisis
management phase--responding to systems that don't work.
With luck, they'll be relatively modest and peripheral in the
United States. I can't make that same statement about other
countries.

We'll spend a lot of time next year carefully explaining to the
public when federal systems have established they're compliant.
The public needs to know, so that the rumors of the month
won't become debilitating.

The greatest risk, in many ways, is that people will act in
anticipation of problems and create economic dislocations. I
don't think there will be a safety issue with any flight, but if
nobody flies because they don't want to take the chance, it
becomes an economic debacle for the airline industry and
destination resorts like the state of Hawaii.

We need to put accurate information out there so that
people can take appropriate responses. The more inaccurate
the information, the greater the chance for economic
dislocations.

Lakshmi
In my hurry to post I forgot to ask you about Laxmi Pujan on October 19.

Is Laxmi Pujan a movable festival? Is it lunar? TIA

The puts I bought were so far out-of-the-money, such a long shot, that 6 hours later I still hold the time and quantity of the last trade on the Chicago exchange for every lot of puts I purchased. Hahahaha. Betting on the three-legged horse with the blind jockey rules.

I feel nice, like sugar and spice ...

There ain't a better bunch of independent thinkers anywhere than this bunch. And I mean each and every one. Go gold, But up please.

Only give her up if it's a choice between her and your gold and even then you might want to first weigh the pros and cons. --AG

Only give her up if it's a choice between her and your gold and even you might want to first weigh the pros and cons. --AG

Yes, we don't know yet. No, he is not going to upset anything.
At best Clinton will go but for all the wrong reasons. I have NEVER
in my lifetime seen a member of the establishment do anything to
undermine themselves and their control over others. STARR is a
lightweight. IF wrong, I will say so.

Thanks, GD GO GOLD

I feel good. Like I knew that I would now. I can see the microphone tip over precariously, then spring back up....Like I knew that it would now.

make those kind of calls on the metals!!

The lightweight is Jammet Reno. Finance issues will be Clinton's unduing. Also Al Gores.

August 10, 1998

Microsoft's Gates, Allen plan to sell stock

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Microsoft Corp. co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen have announced plans to sell a total of 2.5 million common shares of the software giant.

In an Aug. 6 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Gates said he planned to sell 1.5 million shares with a market value of about $165 million around Aug. 3.

In a separate filing, Allen proposed to sell one million shares with a market value of about $108 million at about the same time.

The commission's Form 144 filings allow company officials to announce their intention to sell stock, but they are not then obliged to do so. Microsoft officials in Redmond, Wash., could not immediately confirm if the planned sales had taken place. Allen's sale would be through BT Alex. Brown of San Francisco and Gates' through Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp of New York.

Gates and two other entities -- Gates Library Foundation and the William H. Gates Foundation -- have sold a total of over six million common shares from May 1 through July 31, according to his filing. From May 4 through July 31, Allen said he sold over nine million shares.

As of April 30, Microsoft has about 2.5 billion common shares outstanding, according to their latest quarterly filing with the SEC.

It seems that the" interesting times " of the famous chinese curse are finally coming.
After a long vacation , I looked at the news and found that the world situation is deteriorating at an amazing pace:
1 ) The USA are in their worst political mess since the WATERGATE
2 ) The stock markets are looking into the abyss
3 ) A bombing campaign against US interests might be underway which in turn might be enough to start a shift in public confidence ( if there is any )
4 ) Asia is getting worse by the hour and the reported floods in china will have an impact the extent of which nobody can foresee
5 ) India and Pakistan might be on the verge of war ( as well as Zaire and Rwanda )
6 ) Russia is collapsing despite huge rescue packages
7 ) Japan was able to produce a 78 year old embezzler as finance minister to solve its worst crisis since WW II
Still GOLD is near its lows. It proves ( if it was needed ) that the masses of investors are definitely brainwashed. The interesting point is that the gold demand for second quarter is down about 50% worldwide despite a surge in europe and the US . However the GOLD price is almost unchanged over the last 3 months. I don't know of any commodity which could take such a blow in demand and still remain at the same price. The logical conclusion are
1 ) short selling is exhausted
2 ) some serious buyers are lurking
3 ) production has been more affected than previously thought by the collapse of GOLD
I have faith .
The first effect of a financial meltdown might be to force gold slightly lower but it will take a few weeks for people to see the light.
GO GOLD

I agree that the shock from Japan collapsing will affect all markets around the world. I agree that serious devaluation will have to hit the US $ if it is to remain competitive with everyone else. I hope this signals the beginning in the rise in gold prices.

How long that shock lasts is another question.

With Japan out of the way, a vacuum is formed. With all the cash available the US and Europe will compete to re loan all Asian countries back into production ( with the exception of Japan ) and we are off to the races again.

I think this will begin to occur in the first and second quarters of 99.

Then the recovery gets derailed by Y2K issues and the POG never drops like it would during this time absent Y2K. After a few disasters here and there, spiced with a bank run or two and the beginning of imposed regulation as a result of it all we get the first icing on the cake when the USG misses mailing 42 million ( social security, retirement, disability, etc ) checks in October or November and gold holders get their just deserts.

How long the mess lasts depends largely on how we all behave. If behavior is good I could imagine recovery substantially underway within a year of Jan 1, 2000. If we ( Americans in general ) behave badly, who knows?

Go Gold!

the limit for lease rates to drop the POG. The bottom is just under
280, so we are 2% above the bottom, and leasing costs .8% So the
gold carry gives you a little over 1% margin for shorting, plus the
interest rate on treasuries which is about 5.7%

The low lease rates are telling us that the speculators perceive gold
to be at or near the bottom. Lease rates rise as speculators who have already borrowed rush to cover. They can borrow the .8% gold interest
as well by borrowing from another CB. It must be like the credit card
scam. Use one credit card to pay off another. It works for a while!
These borrowing push up the lease rates, even before the POG reacts.
Eventually the speculators must buy on the open market and gold
explodes. Watch for lease rates going back up over 1%. We can all
relax until then. Lease rates will tell us when to move, and in
enough time to get in. Always IMHO.

THAT SPOT'S RESERVED FOR THE BIG DOW DUMPSTERS!! Heh...heh...heh!

Keep her by all means possible...Rare for anyone to have such insights.

I lived on a boat in a relatively busy harbor for a time. I painted AH on one side of the bow and HA on the other so it read the same from any direction. Only one person I notice reacted to it...a woman

Who offered Adam the winesap.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 10

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,177,263 + 72,727 troy ounces
Silver 79,135,644 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 57,554 + 784 short tons

N/A= Not available.
*********************************************************************
Boy.......quite a rise in Gold totals. Can anyone help/guess what
this means? Are these additions arriving in the Comex Warehouses
in order to meet deliveries very soon? TIA Fox-Man

August 10, 1998

Bell Atlantic workers hit the picket lines; negotiations continue

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Striking Bell Atlantic workers marched in picket lines Monday, the first business day of the walkout against the telephone company that stretches from Maine to Virginia.

"No Contract, No Peace," read signs carried by some pickets in Charleston, W.Va.

Most IBEW members agreed to continue working under their current contract, but said they wouldn't cross CWA picket lines.

The two unions say they are protesting forced overtime and shifting work to non-union employees.
Another Baby Bell, BellSouth Corp., averted a strike by CWA workers with a tentative agreement on a deal just before Sunday's strike deadline.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Bell-Atlantic-Strike.html

August 10, 1998

Bell Atlantic workers hit the picket lines; negotiations continue

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Striking Bell Atlantic workers marched in picket lines Monday, the first business day of the walkout against the telephone company that stretches from Maine to Virginia.

"No Contract, No Peace," read signs carried by some pickets in Charleston, W.Va.

Most IBEW members agreed to continue working under their current contract, but said they wouldn't cross CWA picket lines.

The two unions say they are protesting forced overtime and shifting work to non-union employees.
Another Baby Bell, BellSouth Corp., averted a strike by CWA workers with a tentative agreement on a deal just before Sunday's strike deadline.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Bell-Atlantic-Strike.html

Sharefin posted this link earlier, but it bears repeating:

http://www.abcnews.com/sections/tech/FredMoody/moody64.html

Don't bother to follow it, though, unless you believe Y2K is going to
be a big nothing.

Here's the lead-in:

"When it comes to the fizzle factorthe degree to
which an expected event fails to live up to its
hypethe millennium bug ( aka Y2K ) will prove
to be the standard against which all other overhype
is measured." -Fred Moody

So, what to make of this article which ( if you bother to
read it ) offers not ONE shred of evidence in it's pathetic
attempt to make it's point? Shall we all take turns
laughing at Allen ( USA ) who provided detailed analysis of
Y2K issues all day today? Shall we all go stick our heads
in the sand as Mr. Moody would prefer us do?

I'm here at Kitco BECAUSE of the Y2K problem. I SEE it
in the systems I work on nearly every day. With my OWN eyes.
So what is this idiot Moody trying to tell us? Don't worry, be happy?

My point is this: Let's say for the sake of argument that Y2K DOES
take out the power grid for a week or two ( I'm right with you here,
Allen ( USA ) ) and people can't cook, heat, run hot water, work or any
of the other mundane things people seem to do with electricity.

Let's say that a few people die because they listened to Mr. Moody.
They didn't bother to buy any extra groceries... No extra water,
no candles, no batteries, no camp stove, no wood for the fireplace,
no extra nothing! All because Mr. Moody soothed their 'unreasoning'
fears about the big *joke*: Y2K.

Should we hold Mr. Moody accountable for the deaths?
Should we hold ABC News accountable?
I most certainly will.

And of course, 'Joe Sixpack', the now down-on-his-luck investor doesn't
want any more bad news right now. The DOW is down, the president is
screwing 21 year-old girls, and Y2K is coming. What? Y2K isn't an
issue anymore?! Well, *that's* a relief! Whew! Thanks Mr. Moody!
Can you write something about Clinton that'll give him his credibility
back while you're on the subject of "don't worry, be happy"?

Meanwhile, 'ole Mountain Goat spent the past weekend in the Colorado
mountains searching for an old mining cabin to occupy, for as long as it
might take the repercussions of Y2K to die down. s'truth.
I'll be ready, along with Allen, Squirrel, Grizz, Sharefin, and others
here. I'm already nearly ready. And as gold goes down, I just
find it easier to prepare that part of it. No worries.
( "I don't care, I'm buying more" - ala F* )

But what if Mr. Moody turns out to somehow be right? Why, I'll have a
feast with my emergency food! Won't go to the grocery store for
months! I'll probably eat a bit of crow too... But it'll go down a
good bit better than the shoe leather Moody will be eating as he
tries to extract his foot from his mouth if *he's* wrong.

Thanks to Allen, Squirrel, Grizz, Sharefin, and all the others
whose names don't come to my mind right now for the excellent Y2K info.

Final note: Y2K bears directly on precious metals because there are
those of us out here who are buying for this very reason!

Regards,

MG ( Don't worry, be happy! Ok, worry, but... Go Gold & Silver! )

DOWN 1.77%!! MEXICO DOWN 2.95%!! BRAZIL DOWN 1.47%!! VENEZUELA DOWN 4.95%!! PERU DOWN 1.15%!! And now a word on how the Asian markets are doin' in overnight trading--DOWN!! And THE GREAT BIG STOCK DUMP BEAT GOES ON!! 'CEPT THAT IS FOR GOLD!! Heh..heh..heh.

Can gold rise in the face of further SE Asia currency devaluations? You bet they can! Gold may take a very quick jolt down, but the situation also means that the economic tsunami is encroaching our shores with much lower corporate earnings. This, being perceived, will cause the stampedes to effect the stock markets, and then the dollar. A lot of money will find new places to roost. Gold will be one of those places. I don't believe that too many other places abound. Actually, is there another?

TIME TO DUMP THE DOW RIGHT NOW!!

Anti-American wave sweeping Saudi Arabia? Major blowup coming in Middle East?

______________________________________

THE COUNTER-REACTION IS UNDERWAY:
AMERICA UNDER SIEGE

"Saudi Arabia is metamorphosing into
an anti-American nation in front
of our eyes."

MER - Washington - 8/10/98: Cruise Missiles, Stealth Bombers,
Genocidal "Sanctions", Torture Training, Disengenuous "Peace
Process", Kosherized Washington, US Troops and CIA agents
omni-present... There was bound to be a counter-reaction. It
is now here and still coming. And not just from the fringes,
not just from a few disenchanted "terrorists". As this recent
article by Robert Fisk in The Independent points out, it is
coming from the heart of contemporary Arabdom, even within the
Saudi royal family.


T H E S A U D I C O N N E C T I O N

America's broken promises and its blind
support for Israel are provoking fury
in its oil-rich best ally in the
Middle East. By Robert Fisk in The
Independent, 8/9.

THE KEY to the identity and motives of the men who bombed the US
embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam on Friday lies deep within the
nation that the Americans regard as their principal ally in the Arab
Gulf - Saudi Arabia. The attacks, which cost the lives of more than
100 men and women, reflected the growing fury of thousands of Saudis -
including, some say, members of the Royal Family - at America's
continued military and political presence in the land which is home to
Islam's two holiest shrines, Mecca and Medina.

Resistance to the US presence in Saudi Arabia by some of the Kingdom's
most influential figures has been largely ignored in the West - not
least by the routine "terrorist-watchers" and so-called intelligence
experts who have been regaling us for the past 48 hours with the
potential guilt of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan or, to use their own
exotic phrase, "international Islamic terror". Not one of them has
focused on the country whose fearful identity crisis is at the heart
of the current crisis in the Gulf.

It was not by chance that the bombs exploded in Kenya and Tanzania on
the eighth anniversary, to the very day, of the arrival of the first
US troops in Saudi Arabia following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
US forces were invited into the Kingdom by the now-ailing King Fahd,
who insisted that the Americans withdraw all their military forces
once the threat of Iraqi aggression had ended.

The Americans did not keep their promise; today, thousands of US
military personnel are still based in Saudi Arabia with key operatives
inside the Saudi ministries of defence and interior - just as
they were in Iran before the fall of the Shah.

One of the latest claims of responsibility - from the so-called
"Liberation Army of the Islamic Sanctuaries" - itself suggests a Saudi
source. Egyptian security services have long believed that, while
Sudan may be a springboard for military operations against them, it is
the Saudis who have been the principal financial backers of the Gemaa
Islamiya ( Islamic Group ) , which has attacked police, tourists,
Christian villagers and even President Moubarak himself. Saudi money
funds the ferociously anti-feminist Taliban militia in Afghanistan -
just as Saudi money was originally poured into Algeria to support the
Islamic Salvation Front ( FIS ) , whose banning led to the country's
savage internal war.

There are, for example, regular flights of transport aircraft to the
Taliban in Jalalabad which take off from the Arab emirate of Sharjah
but whose flight plans, unlisted in the Emirates, show their original
point of departure as the Saudi port of Jeddah. Weapons have flowed to
the Taliban from Saudi Arabia on aircraft from Uzbekistan. The
Taliban's cruel "Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and
Suppression of Vice" - responsible for stonings, amputations and other
judicial atrocities - is modelled directly on the structure of the
Saudi "mutawah" religious police. Many members of the Saudi royal
family, whose princes can be counted in their thousands, are far more
conservative than King Fahd and fiercely resent what they regard as
America's betrayal of the Arab world, most recently its refusal to
force Israel to abide by the Oslo peace agreement.

In this context the remote but intriguing figure of Osama bin Laden,
the Saudi dissident now living in Afghanistan, makes more sense. Far
from being an outcast from his own country, he is in contact with the
Saudi authorities via the Saudi embassy in Islamabad. Indeed, in 1996,
he received an emissary from the Saudi royal family who said that bin
Laden could have his Saudi citizenship restored to him plus a gift of
#339m to his family if he abandoned his public jihad ( holy war )
against the West's presence in the Kingdom.

"If liberating my land is called terrorism, this is a great honour for
me," he told me last year. He regarded American and Israeli forces as
identical - a view which will have been reinforced by the news that
Israeli intelligence agents have arrived in Nairobi to help the
Americans identify the bombers. But bin Laden is only the latest in a
long line of hate figures upon whom the West likes to vent its anger
( previous incumbents have been Palestinians Abu Nidal and Wadi Haddad,
Colonel Gaddafi, Ayatollah Khomeini, Carlos the Jackal and, more
recently, Saddam Hussein ) . What the so-called terrorist experts
routinely fail to discuss are the reasons for Muslim frustration:
Palestinian dispossession, American domination of the Arab world,
Washington's blind support for Israel, the US stranglehold on the Gulf
oil market - and the vicious intelligence conflict being played out
between America and Muslim groups in the Middle East.

Egyptian "Islamists" now claim that American intelligence operatives
taught the Egyptian police their increasingly sophisticated torture
techniques, just as they once taught the Shah's SAVAK secret police
how to torture women ( after the revolution, the Iranians found CIA
film of these lessons ) . And "Islamist" groups have been enraged by
America's snatch squads who have, in effect, abducted wanted men from
Muslim countries - in past years, from Malaysia, Pakistan, Lebanon and
now Albania. Many of the Saudi and other Arab fighters who resisted
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, with CIA support, find
themselves reviled by their own governments and without passports; a
few days ago, a close guerrilla colleague of bin Laden and an
Afghan veteran, introduced himself to a Saudi outside the largest
mosque in Istanbul to say that he no longer had any citizenship.

So who in Saudi Arabia leads the resistance to the American presence?
Certainly not the three Shia Muslim Saudis beheaded for bombing the US
barracks in Dhahran in 1996, killing 19 Americans. The CIA were
refused permission to interview the men before their execution - even
the Americans suspect they may have been "set up" by powerful figures
in the Kingdom.

Certainly not bin Laden. Among the more vociferous critics of the US
presence is none other than Crown Prince Abdullah. No, he doesn't lead
"Terror Inc". Nor does the Saudi government. They don't need to. For
Saudi Arabia is metamorphosing into an anti-American nation in front
of our eyes. Of course, we're not told about that. Which is why, for
most of the world, the bombing of the US embassies last week was
represented as an assault by Muslim "madmen". Arrest the usual
suspects.

!!!

If the Euro succeeds, USDollar holders would be best served holding gold instead. This level of competition will drive down the "value" of the Dollar, which is surely over-esteemed the world 'round at the present time.

If the Euro is an unmitigated flop, everybody would be best served holding gold, as the burning of a major fiat currency sinks the boat for everyone. Shaking the population's confidence on this grand scale would effectively usher in the end of the great worldwide fiat experiment. ( You might want to think that there would be a run to the USDollar in this event...there would not. The "sophisticated" countries who would have suffered in the Euro-embarrassment would never allow themselves to fawn and cringe at the knees of the last fiat money standing. To do that would be to consign themselves to slavery. )

Well, ok...I *helped* my niece arrive at these conclusions.

got gold?

will have the immediate effect of raising the USD, not gold. Has
any Asian devaluation helped gold? These are deflationary waves,
not inflationary, and far more immediate than currency generated
trade impacts on the USD. IMHO The best thing for gold would be
a stable yen, and an Asian recovery, and a quiet collaapse of the
American bubble.

Statistically trifling? Hmmmm

-----

New York ( AP )

The 28 major securities firms that recently simulated the arrival of the
millennium on their computers experienced problems completing about
1 percent of their trades because of year 2000 changes.
The failures among the firms that handle about half of Wall Street's
daily trading volume is statistically trifling. But the problems could prove
more significant when smaller firms that don't have such vast resources
to tackle year 200 computer problems are included in a broader test in
March.
----

Got gold? A little
Go gold? You bet.

Cassandra
ANOTHER member of the Kitco_A family

I am 20+ years in the telephone, network and computer business. I too, see it ( Y2K problems ) every day. Having worked on management implementations for some of the worlds largest networks makes one appreciate the enormity of the issue.

Planning beats panic any time. Plan now before the only thing left is panic.

Go Gold!

Tomorrow is sure to be a grand event--if for no other reason than for simply being in your thoughts...the mail shall be but frosting on the cake which is your friendship!

Toss your hat in the air and gulp down the celebratory shot before it lands! YeeeeeeeeHAAAAAAAAA!

Really. Seriously. There are so many reasons to hold gold it's
hard to count them all. I wish the general population would wake up!
Actually, I think they will. Very soon....
Thanks, Foxman ( I got gold )

Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.87. The 144 day moving average is 29.49

"Winning isn't everything. It's the only thing". Vince Lombardi

XAU/Spot Ratio = .220. The 144 day moving average is .253. There have been only 9 occasions where the XAU closed in the 63.XX range ( and 4 of them are the past 4 trading days ) . Ranked according to the gold price, today is #7.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.17. The 144 day moving average is 50.73

Spot gold $296.80; spot silver $5.90; XAU 75.23

Spot gold $301.31; spot silver $5.65; XAU 79.23

Okee
so this in ANOTHER hoax?
http://www.henge.com/~vspina/cgi-bin/goldboard/messages/33.html

This guy gives a phone number. Nick@Canabeera time to unload 1,000 tons of gold....

Know this...if you sell it for currency that looks like the kind with which you bought it, you sold too soon. USFederal Reserve Notes...Crash and burn, never to return...

Stay mindful of the international scene, upper echelon. They know better than all others that fiat money is as water from a faucet. One does not labor for another when payment is scant more than one could easily let flow for one's self.

got water? Yes! and when the thirst is so adequately quenched that everyone is forced to tread water, what will they toil for then? Anything that is not water.

got gold?

Thought yu were 100% cash which means yu already toweled.
Mtn Bear still holding CEF, GOLDX, TX and XON

DETROIT ( Reuters ) - Ford Motor Co., stepping up the industry's price wars, said Monday its average vehicle price for the 1999 model year will be down 0.3 percent, the first overall cut in more than 30 years.

The U.S. No. 2 automaker said prices on its cars will fall 1.7 percent from 1998 model year levels. Prices on pickup trucks, sport utilities and minivans, which make up close to 60 percent of Ford's sales, will be up half a percent.

Detroit's Big Three automakers have been trying to hold sticker price increases to a minimum for the last two years in a fierce battle for share against low-price imports amid a maturing market for new vehicles.

Chrysler Corp. last month announced its overall 1999 prices would rise 0.1 percent, mostly because of new regulatory emission costs. The year before, Chrysler had an average price decrease of 0.6 percent.

General Motors Corp. expects its average 1999 prices to be unchanged. Spokeswoman Anne Marie Sylvester said the automaker is not releasing an average figure because staggered product launches and all-new vehicles make it too difficult to compile the number.

"Basically, we will be flat," she said.

A year ago, GM raised prices an average of 1.3 percent, its lowest increase in 10 years.

Ford's average 1998 prices were flat compared with 1997 levels. The automaker said its overall average price throughout the year did not change.

Included in the 1999 Ford price reductions are more than 5 percent drops for its most popular car, the Taurus sedan. The suggested retail price of a 1999 Taurus LX is $17,995, down $1,000. A well-equipped Taurus SE is $18,995, $1,080 below the year-ago price. Both figures include the $550 destination fee.

In a bid to add more value, Ford said it will become the first domestic vehicle maker to not charge consumers the $170 it costs for additional emission equipment in California, New York and Massachusetts.

"This is a very good news story for the consumer," said Lloyd Hansen, controller for Ford's marketing and sales operations.

He said Ford was able to reduce its prices because of an aggressive cost-cutting campaign that has slashed $4.3 billion over the last 18 months.

A year ago, Ford realigned its price structure to drop low-selling models, simplify option packages and adjust standard equipment levels. That contributed to a 5 percent increase in retail car sales, it said.

For 1999, the slight increase in light truck prices is coming from a 0.7 percent increase for F-Series trucks, the company's best-selling vehicle; and a 0.5 percent rise in the Expedition full-size sport utility. Prices for the Explorer and Navigator sport utility vehicles are unchanged.

Overall, Ford division prices will fall 0.2 percent, compared with a 0.7 percent decline at Lincoln Mercury.

In other price actions Monday, Ford said its new 1999 Windstar minivan will start at $20,800 for a three-door model with a 3.0-liter V-6 engine. The optional fourth door will cost $450. Ford expects 70-80 percent of the new Windstars to be sold with the fourth door, which comes standard on LX models.

Ford also said it is offering a 1999 Ranger compact pickup truck with a 3.0-liter flexible fuel engine that runs on ethanol or gasoline at no extra charge. That is a discount of $500, Ford said.

Prices for the 1999 models are effective immediately. Most of the models go on sale on Oct. 1. Ford has not yet released prices for the new Mustang coupe and Villager minivan, although they have been factored into the overall numbers.

but I insist on payment in gold...

Don't rush to sell yen, the information behind the headline was released on Friday. China's State Council, Finance Ministry and National Tax Administration have agreed to increase the rebate given to exporters to 11% from 9% on the twelve most popular export items. These items include the following items: telecommunications equipment, power generation and transmission equipment, data-processing equipment, high-quality electrical appliances, farm machinery, aircraft and aviation equipment, and car and motor cycle components, bicycles, watches, photographic equipment, shoes and china products. More than half of China's exports come from these items. The government called this measure a means of improving the competitiveness of China's exports. The government hopes that the exporters will use the increase in the rebate to lower prices, in theory improving exports. If this improvement comes at the expense of China's South East Asian competitors or is percieved by the market as such, it could lead to devaluations or similar measurs in other countries. Although there has been tremendous concern about China de-valuing, not much has been mentioned about the measures taken on Friday. If this catches the market's attention, prepare for a $/yen move over 146.75.

Source: Currency Trading News

Gluts, Nuts, and Sluts NOW!! BLOODY BUTTS AND GUTS LATER!!!!

An interesting day today in the commodities market. Oil is again selling for $13.05 bbl and may be sliding to $10.00 by September. Business activity is diminishing and the ranks of the unemployed is about to swell. I would like to remind all of you that we are in a primary bear market which can't be worked off by any means. We DO have a DOW THEORY BEAR market confirmation.

AragornIII
That leaves 900 tons, no, 1,000 tons to find. Can't be too hard to. ahhemm, dig up ANOTHER 1,000 tons. Limey probably has a paper-weight somewhere that'll go half way to the golden goal.

Auctioning 1,000 tons, ( I shall offer my auctioning services, 0.5% on fall of hammer )

Yee Ha! We Got Us A Gold Auction!!


Auctionaur@cious

GM is a "bellweather", right? "GM says market share will drop 25%"
Enuff said.

The number of certified U.S. coins of a certain grade.
The times I've seen it, it's been in a pamphlet or
book-oid form. Does anyone have one handy?
If it is a web link, could people
please tell me the exact link to click on?

sjulins@hotmail.com

that's bellwether
bbll

DE-INDUSTRIALISATION
W. Stanners
1. Introduction.

From time to time, and in various guises, the issue of de-industrialisation is raised. Sometimes the central concern is the dereliction of a once staple industry, sometimes the effect on UK trade, sometimes the decline of the proportion of GNP related to manufacturing, sometimes a discussion of whether industry matters so much when the rapidly developing sector is now services.

What has this to do with the problem of de-industrialisation? Well, in discussing de-industrialisation, we must constantly be aware that there are difficulties in knowing or objectively measuring what we are talking about, and still more in assigning an importance to it. These are not just difficulties in the sense that a lot of care and effort is needed to surmount them. They are in principle insurmountable. There is thus a lot of room for undeclared pre-judgement and emotion to be felt to be fact, and presented as such.

4. Numerical illustration - preamble

In order to pursue the matter further, a numerical illustration will be given. But first some necessary remarks will be given on productivity, wages, and prices.

As explained above, there is no objective way whatever of justifying this. Whether the value of 1 kg. of water is less than, equal to, or more than, that of 1 kg. of gold depends entirely on the circumstances in which the question is posed. One can only assign the values which pertain by chance at one point in time, in our case the datum time, and stick to this, anachronistically as said above, at all later ( or earlier ) time. This is what official statisticians do, and must do, only they move the datum time forward from time to time, as the differences in quality ( which are not present in the present formulation ) and distribution ( which are present ) of goods become too great for the process to remain credible. It is important to acknowledge, and keep constantly in mind, that this process, no matter how dedicated the practitioners, is fundamentally not science. It is a modus operandi.

8. The bias of language

De-industrialisation is a very poor word for this process, at least for the discussion of economics as opposed to sociology, since it suggests that industry, after a period of going up, is now on its way down.

As illustrated copiously above, language has its own dynamic. A bottle can be half full or half empty. The same process, which freed Plato for teaching, freed the farm labourer for the city slums, and frees the factory worker for the dole queue.

12. Differential growth between regions

Wages in Utopia are much higher than in Subtopia, but the price of primary goods is lower, while secondary goods are more expensive.

Clearly the two regions cannot be part of one country, since no one would buy primary goods from Subtopia, while on the other hand, all new Utopian factories would be located in Subtopia to benefit from the lower wage rates. In other words, the within-country diffusion process described in previous sections makes marked and sustained productivity differentials impossible.

Let it be supposed, then, that the regions are two separate countries, but that they still have the same currency. Subtopia would have to protect its primary sector from Utopian imports by imposing a duty of at least 63% on primary goods, and Utopia might have to restrain exports of capital and tourist expenditure to Subtopia, attracted by low wage rates and low prices of secondary goods. It will be recalled that although both economies have zero inflation, Subtopia appears to Utopians as a low price area, relative to their expenditure basket.

An alternative for Subtopia ( this is mentioned only because it happens in reality - it would otherwise not come to mind ) would be to conclude that its already low wage rates are too high for international competitivity, and to deflate the economy in order to introduce discipline into the labour market. This means trying to cure too low output by decreasing it further.

It would appear from this simple analysis, that once the geographically localised industrial ( productivity ) revolution started, the world had a choice between, on the one hand a single currency ( gold/silver ) plus protection or force, or, on the other hand, locally administered paper currencies plus free trade. This choice presumably lies behind the eventual abandonment of the Gold Standard and the subsequent unprecedented world inflation, in terms of paper currencies, since 1945.

http://wueconb.wustl.edu:8089/eps/dev/papers/9601/9601001.html

Donald: Looks more and more like serial devaluations worldwide are the rule. I do not like what I see in South America, let alone everywhere else. If we just focus on South America, and consider the possibility of gold 'fire sales', we conclude gold must tend down, and the US dollar up. Even the Communist Chinese people may be hoarding US dollars because of fears of the devaluation of the Yuan.
I wonder how D.A. is doing these days. Sure looks like a deflationary trend in the US for a time -- at least until this new cycle of currency devaluation is over.
I think more and more that we are repeating the deflationary events of the 20's, culmonating in a depression. History never repeats itself exactly, but it sure is getting more and more ominous.
I think we also need to ask ourselves what will happen if all the weak currencies devalue -- what about the rest of the world? How about Europe?, how about the US? When will this serial devaluation stop? There is a real possibility that this process will continue for some time.
It is hard to peer through those murky clouds of the future and discern how much longer the US dollar will rise ( gold down ) . We know eventually the US dollar will fall as foreign investment leaves for greener pastures, leading to a rising price of gold. However, given the current state of affairs, the US dollar may remain stong for some time to come. Currently there seems to be no currency/economic system that is seriously competing with the US. What may happen may be like what happened in the 20's. The US economy and US markets kept going for years after other countries were will into a depression. It was not until several major countries turned the corner that the US markets began to fall in earnest. After all -- if your country is in severe financial trouble -- you too would be tempted to put your money in the US -- ignoring all the things a Kitcoite would worry about.

Well, pretty bad actually. When I went to the broker today, a broker who has been working in the business for about 5 years, there were a bunch of things she didn't know much about. She didn't have any experience purchasing puts on the market, well, some, but not much. I explained to her not to offer the market price as a bid, and she said "Well, you might be waiting a while and you might even get passed up". Someone sold the puts to me before she even had a chance to check and see if they had sold. Also, when we were deciding what I would purchase puts against, she said "I'm not used to thinking about stocks this way", meaning that she's used to looking for "value" and not used to buying things for their downside potential. I could tell that my purchasing puts was making her a little bit nervous, and she kept asking me if I was sure I wanted to do it ( in anticipation of the rebound to higher levels ) , and I smiled and re-assured her I was okay.

Anyway, that kind of discussion tells me that this bull has gone on long enough. When a broker can't even comprehend someone's decision to bet on the down-side, there's just too much bullish sentiment out there. I think my broker thought I was messing with her head or something, trying to alter her reality. It's the same look I get when I'm talking about investments with someone and I tell them I own some Gold.

JTF
That is exactly what I advised a friend who lives in Laos. He does not know enough about gold to avoid getting ripped off, and he asked me if he should repatriate his savings into kiwi dollars. I told him to keep US$. SOme kind of blasphemy hereabouts, but I reckon the kiwi dollar has further to fall, never could fly, the kiwi. Where's the poster called kiwi?

When I work out how he can purchase gold in Bangkok I shall point him where to go.

I gotta go now

I think the SLICK1 is about to find out that socialized love can be very exspensive.

Looks like gold had a nice post 2PM pop today. Could this be the rally you were looking for?? Did we get 5 waves down in AU?

Rank, Country/Region, Foreign Reserves ( US$ Billion ) , Date
1 Japan 225.6 97/09
2 China 130.3 97/08
3 Hong Kong 88.1 97/09
4 Taiwan 87.8 97/08
5 Germany 81.8 97/08
6 Singapore 76.9 97/08
7 U.S.A. 67.5 97/07
8 Spain 66.7 97/08
9 Brazil 61.2 97/09
10 Italy 54.3 97/08

http://www.coin-universe.com/population_report/

The latest terms to add to your at work vocabulary:

Assmosis - The process by which some people seem to absorb success and
advancement by kissing up to the boss rather than working hard.

Blamestorming - Sitting around in a group discussing why a deadline was
missed or a project failed and who was responsible.

Seagull Manager - A manager who flies in, makes a lot of noise,
craps all over everything and then leaves.

Blowing your buffer - Losing your train of thought.

Salmon day - The experience of spending an entire day swimming upstream
only to get screwed in the end.

Chainsaw consultant - An outside expert brought in to reduce the
employee headcount, leaving the brass with clean hands.

CLM - Career-limiting move - Used among microserfs to describe ill-
advised activity. Trashing your boss while he or she is within
earshot is a serious CLM.

Depotphobia - Fear associated with entering a Home Depot because of how
much money one might spend. Electronics geeks experience Shackophobia.

Adminisphere - The rarefied organizational layers beginning just above
the rank and file. Decisions that fall from the adminisphere are often
profoundly inappropriate or irrelevant to the problems they were
designed to solve.

Dilberted - To be exploited and oppressed by your boss. Derived from
the experiences of Dilbert, the geek-in-hell comic strip character.
"I've been dilberted again. The old man revised the specs for the
fourth time this week."

Flight Risk - Used to describe employees who are suspected of planning
to leave the company or department soon.

404 - Someone who's clueless. From the World Wide Web error message
"404 Not Found", meaning that the requested document could not be
located. "Don't bother asking him.he's 404, man."

Generica - Features of the American landscape that are exactly the
same no matter where one is, such as fast food joints, strip malls,
subdivisions. Used as in "We were so lost in generica that I forgot
what city we were in."

GOOD Job - A "Get-Out-Of-Debt" job. A well-paying job people take in
order to pay off their debts, one that they will quit as soon as they
are solvent again.

Keyboard Plaque - The disgusting buildup of dirt and crud found on
computer keyboards.

Ohnosecond - That minuscule fraction of time in which you realize that
you've just made a BIG mistake.

Percussive Maintenance - The fine art of whacking the crap out of an
electronic device to get it to work again.

Prairie Dogging - When someone yells or drops something loudly in a
"cube farm" ( an office full of cubicles ) and everyone's heads pop up
over the walls to see what's going on.

Telephone Number Salary - A salary ( or project budget ) that has seven
digits.

Umfriend - A sexual relation of dubious standing or a concealed
intimate relationship, as in "This is Dale, my...um...friend."

Yuppie Food Stamps - the ubiquitous $20 bills spewed out of ATMs
everywhere. Often used when trying to split the bill after a meal: "We
all owe $8 each, but all anybody's got is yuppie food stamps."

A stockbroker was called calling about a small cap stock and found a taker. "I think this one will really move said the broker, it's only $1 a share". Buy me 1000 shares said the client. The next day the stock was at $2. The client called the broker and said you were right, give me 5000 more shares. The next day the client looked in the paper and the stock was at $4. The client ran to the phone and called the broker, get me 10,000 more shares said the client. Great said the broker. The next day the client looked in the paper and the stock was at $9. Seeing what a great profit the client had in a few days, he ran to the phone and told the broker to sell all my shares. The broker said to who? You were the only one buying that stock.

But how could that be since the total daily volume of the shares were always greater that the volume of my purchases? Oh, an institutional investors were buying from themselves in blocks. I told you the stock would move, though!

Just thought I'd post a funny here cause CNBC is doing the spin meister thing will small caps. They're really pushing small caps real hard right now.

Wow..Holey Cow rattle my ass........ The BLOOPER gona luv u.......... that is all paper.
RESERVES IN PAPER......... u bet.
Value can be transfered by computer not by boat,,,,,,,,holy cow rattle my ass..................

they are likely to be silver which have been painted gold so as to discourage theft.

Are you in the gold kiwi business? Perhaps we could coordinate addresses and terms via the Cuervo Central mailroom. I'm sure tolerantl would be happy to play middleman in the information swap such that our dirty laundry may not be aired for all of Kitco to see. I know how loathe you are to release your e-mail...

I checked the FP this weekend and confirmed that ABX short interest increased some 1/2 million shares to stand at about 13 million shares shorted in total.

SO..... A spike in gold is unlikely in the short term cause ABX shares have not been bought back yet and the management is protecting the shorters by not buying back their shares as they said they would.

THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THIS IS THAT IT GIVES MORE TIME TO ACCUMMULATE GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS AT SUCH LOW PRICES....
all right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Deflation is a monetary phenomena. Price level changes are a possible but not necessary symptom. Money growth in the US isn't shrinking it's growing at over 10% per year.

I own a business and my costs are going up, especially personel costs. I haven't been able to raise the prices we charge due to strong competitive pressures.

Many companies are feeling the same pressures. Its hard to hire good people so expenses are going up but revenues aren't keeping pace. The stock market is starting to reflect this situation.

As it becomes apparent that the US is entering a bear market our currency will crash. The Yen dropped 25% when their market crash occurred and they were running large trade surpluses.

We aren't going to have a 1930 style depression. Because of the huge amounts of dollars being held as reserve currencies the most likely result will be a German style hyper inflation.

Got gold!!

good reversal today but still alot of pressure. When DOW unwinds it is really going to go. REASON: The BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE DOLLAR STD. They cant wait to buy gold until everyone has figured it out, which will be the time to unload as it now is for financials.

And it's all my fault. I am not describing what I want correctly.

Please, please, please, do not give me any more links to population
reports available on the web. They are very interesting, but they
are not what I want, because they are not specific enough.

I would like to know the number of coins graded MS-66 or better
for all U.S. Silver Commemoratives halves ( or in two cases, not halves - one was a quarter and one was a dollar ) minted before 1935. There
are probably about 20 different individual coins from that time.
I need the population number for the individual coins. For example,
how many Missouri commems currently grade MS-66 or better? How many Hudson Bay commems currently grade MS-66 or better? If someone has a population report in their hands, this would be the easiest, because
I could ask which coins I need population reports for and they could
tell me.

I agree with much that you've said. I can't see a 1930 style depression in this day and age. In countries like the U.S and Canada, you will always have something to eat and eat well at that.

So then, with hyperinflation, it's not just GOLD that will take off, Land and Resources/Commodities will take off too. Keynes economics is just a bunch of crap. Lets go back to the gold standard.

Aurator: It sure is a strange world we live in -- and we are experiencing economic events that most of us have never experienced before unless we are over 70 years old. My father -- yes -- but not me. So it is hard for us to know what to do -- explains why I have recently lost money investing in gold equities. Would have lost more without Kitco.
I think what we are experiencing is a corollary of Gresham's law -- and that is that in a deflationary world dominated by fiat currencies, the strongest fiat currencies are hoarded -- not gold. There is no profit in gold when interest rates are artificially high, as they are in the US. I don't know about the rest of the world with regard to interest rates, but it probably also applies to other strong currencies, as short term rates are probably too high relative to the deflationary phenomenon of dropping long term rates.
So -- everyone hoards the most visible fiat currency -- the US dollar. Hoarding of gold will not begin in earnest until confidence in all major fiat currencies is seriously shaken.
I wish my friends in Canada had taken my warning and invested some of their Canadian cash in a strong foreign currency. They are heeding my advice now. Being a true Kitcoite, I have trouble recommending the US dollar -- but it is quite clear that investing in the Canadian dollar or in the Mexican peso is a much worse idea. Investing in physical gold or silver cannot hurt, but it does make sense to have a stash in a fiat currency stronger that that of your own country. Amazing how much of the world believes in the US dollar. Sure does look like it will be one of the last to fall -- and when it does it will usher in the last stages of what it happening to us.
I find it harder and harder to consider an inflationary period in the US -- the risk of that will be low as long as we continue to have major worldwide serial currency devaulations and market collapses.
I'm sure AG fears a depression more than inflation in the US. It will be interesting to see what he can achieve. Sooner or later he or his successor will have to lower rates to correct the interest rate inversion. If he does too soon we will risk inflating the stock market bubble. If he waits too long, the world will collapse into a depression. That is, what's left of it.

Kaplan is back in the saddle again, one of my favorite guys on the web.

Today he says....
The truth is that the world's financial markets are inextricably interconnected, and we're all going down with the ship unless we head for the lifeboats. The real danger is that the Dow will hit 2000 not in the year 2008 or 2010, but in just a few years; a quick look at what happened to Korea and you know that it's possible. A long bear market is still more likely in my opinion since investors have become conditioned to buy on dips and this ingrained habit is likely to take several years of failed rallies to be completely reversed.

Hey Bratipaglia, you reading...BUY ON THE DIPS PLEASE!!! Taste your own medicine big guy and get fatter will ya please.

Listen to what the markets are saying. The long bond at 5.62% is saying --be aware, we are going into a very SEVERE DEFLATION..

SteveIS_A: And I agree that AG has been flooding the world with US dollars. Technically you are right that the money supply is going up. The problem is that so many other currencies are weaker that these excess dollars are being sopped up as if with a sponge, as fast as AG can print them.
Just wait till all of those excess US dollars come back to roost. Then we will have an inflationary problem. My problem is that time seems more and more distant.
What South American, or Russian, or Communist Chinese is willing right now to sell their dollars? They will not. But -- you are right that someday they will. But that could be a year or more from now.
Where I am, you can get Hondas at 30% off from the sticker price -- we are awash in new cars. Just wait until this deflationary effect starts hitting in earnest. Dont assume that inflation is just around the corner. But -- I will agree with you on one thing -- food commodities may be about to go up in the US -- given the bad weather. All depends on how much foreign demand for US food has dropped.
What I am doing is watching the commodity indices. Cry0 looks like it is falling off a cliff. Oil may still drop some more. The JOC index may have bottomed. Hard to tell -- perhaps this time the JOC is not telling us the right information -- and commodity prices will drop some more before they bottom. It is interesting that gold bullion has been gaining strength relative to the cry0 since January 1998, but that gold equities are still getting weaker relative to the cryo.

Harry Schultz says in latest newsletter ( +32 16 533684 ) that banks are worried more than any group. Harry hears of bankers buying country cottages, i.e. getting out of cities, advising friends to get money out of banks.

The Rats ( bankers ) are fleeing the city ( buying country cottages & withdrawing cash ) . That's all the proof I need.

BTW, Harry said in a previous newsletter that airliners will likely ground themselves a week before, and possibly months after, Jan 1, 2000. Yesterday's Sunday Times reports that the UK's major tour operators will not sell travel packages with flight dates on Dec 31 & Jan 1. A spokesman said, "It's purely a matter of safety...The safest option is not to fly."

The article also cites a survey of 250 company bosses 40% of whom say they would not be flying at the turn of the century.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980810/V000726-081098-idx.html

Wall St. Finds Year 2000 Glitches

By Andrew Fraser
AP Business Writer
Monday, August 10, 1998; 4:45 p.m. EDT

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The 28 major securities firms that recently simulated the arrival of the millennium experienced problems
completing about 1 percent of their trades because of year 2000 changes.

You say Markets say that, I say Bonds say this....

Buy me and do not worry. Feel safe in me.
Wait 30 years to be paid with paper.

Interest rates will not rise.
In fact they will go lower!

There is no inflation.
It will always be under control!

Do not buy gold.
It is dead and dying!

Don't believe AG when he says inflation is the greater concern.
Worry about defaltion! Buy me, I'm a Bond, a US Bond.

IF YOU BELIEVE THE ABOVE IS TRUE, THEN YOU MIGHT MAKE A CASE FOR BUYING BONDS.

But to me, bonds so so f!ckin risky right now that I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole. I feel sorry for people who are buying them now
when the rates of return are so low.

Gold may still go down but only a little more.

SO it boils down to a question of RISK!!!!

The downside in the POG is not a risky as it is with bonds over time.
You might be right about bonds but only in a very very very short period of time.
And in that case, buying bonds makes you a gambler, not an investor.

A little Primer if I may:
1 ) Gold and Silver production is primarily the BY PRODUCT of mining other
materials...i.e., they are the "leftovers" ESPECIALLY Silver. There are
very very few "pure" silver mines out there...mostly it is found in conjunction
with lead, zinc and copper mining.

Ditto very few pure gold mines out there.

2 ) Since the price of copper, & silver, and gold
currently available for sale
is so dang low,
theoretcially we should be "chewing through" any supply "overhang"
in this market.
As an observer and player in this market for years and years and years,
I can tell you this, unequivocally...
Those who tinker with supply demand numbers that the "commercials"
are throwing about as "reasons"
basically increase and decrease AT WILL, the scrap metal recovered
by folks like me for only $20 an oz for pure, above ground gold,
and tinker with the supply demand equation with just the adjustment
to this one category in their calculations.

In silver, we usta blame Xrays for the tremendous amounts of
recycled silver "depressing" the supply part of their equation.
Now, in the day of MRI and other safer technologies, Xrays aren't
as plentiful for scrapping and scraping the silver from and thus
making re-available to the silver supply equation.

3 ) As a matter of proven industrial fact, the literal 1998 cost to
mine one ounce of pure silver is $7.37 per troy ounce.
Therefore, a great many silver mines are NOT currently operating
and should have positively affected the supply side tremendously...
However, since it is a byproduct, it's coming from mining "other stuff."

4 ) Same story for gold, basically.

5 ) Will silver ever recover? You bet it will. When? I dunno.

6 ) Anyone who tells you they know when, run like the dickens!!!!

7 ) Why will silver recover?
There is a tremendously depleting of silver technology currently in
it's pre-commercial scale mfg and distribution currently in final
testing and deployment stages. It is in a paticular type of
long life batteries which uses tremendous amounts of silver
in its manufacture. This is why big names such as Soros, Templeton, Buffet
are buying and taking delivery of silver by the barges-ful.

8 ) India's love affair with gold and silver are not just legends, they
are factual. When price rallies in silver or gold dries up demand,
holder's always sell...and not just in India of course. They just usually
are the ones to get blamed. It's always easier to point the finger at
the "thems." Frankly, I've always wished I could read Hindi, because
I suspect the accounts of who's to blame for selling silver in their native
newspapers suspiciously sounds like "those lousy Americans"

Preacher,

I was checking in to see who was doing all the selling and now I see
that Teck had been selling in a nickle & dime fashion and probably
new all along that the Russian project was a flop in the early spring.
Had I seen Teck was selling any shares I would have never purchased
SSRIF aleast at $3.50. I learned on this one if you're on later check this
out
http:www.stockscape.com/processITR2.cfm?value=silver%20stan&r1=issuer

PS you been lean on your positngs lately, you must be on the vino
circuit with that air hostess

NO NEW LOWS IN GOLD!!!!

In my opinion the markets are the best indicators of future events. If the bond market had suspected that we may have hyper inflation, interest rates would have soared with bonds collapsing and the government would not be able to raise another nickel by selling bonds. Hyper inflation in the US is only possible if the US government was paying it's bills in cash instead of checks. So far , they are paying their bills with checks.
Granted, the long bond yield has decline from 15% in 1982 to the current 5.62% today. About 2/3 of the bonds bull market is over. But, I think the yield will decline further to about 2% within the next 2 years.

http://www.stockscape.com/processITR2.cfm?value=silver%20stan&r1=issuer

Something interesting I found last night........

Just to refresh your memories:

Early signals to watch for confirmation of the deflationary depression scenario:

1 ) Continued shrinkage of M-2 as a multiple of the monetary base.
2 ) Continued double-digit increases in the portion of the money supply that is held as cash.
3 ) A flight from high-risk bank instruments such as jumbo CDs and a widening of the spread or gap between Treasure bills and Eurodollars.
4 ) A dramatic drop in the market price of freely trading instruments that mimic the valuation of bank collateral.
5 ) Falling commodity prices. But note that a rising nominal price of gold implies that either the crunch is still ahead or it is already passed. At the end of the past credit cycles, the REAL price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, then risen sharply.
6 ) Continued declines in real estate in spite of "easy money". ED. that is, low interest rates on mortgages.
7 ) A fall in loan demand in the face of falling interest rates.

Especially note #5 above. I believe #6, and #7 are coming soon to a theater near you.

Good Post. I agree with you. Who would wnat to buy
BONDS from a big country like the USA who has less
reserves than Taiwan, and is the biggest debtor country
in the world.

Will it be the US bond holders who get 10 cents on the dollar,
and wind up paying off the US debt?

No way, they're showing Fist of the North Star on Cinemax at 8pm. That is like the last movie I would ever expect during prime time Cinemax.

National debt should be based on a per capita basis....The U.S.A. is not all that bad.
Now up there in Canada some of them can tell you what dept is. That is one reason a Canadian dollar is worth 50 cents.

August 10, 1998

Bloodied banks take down Toronto stocks yet again

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - Toronto's equities market took a pounding for the second consecutive trading day Monday as investor confidence in the heavyweight banking sector continued to evaporate and oil stocks were pounded by weak crude prices.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's key 300 composite index tumbled 117.39 points or 1.77 percent to close at 6523.70 points.

Trading was unusually light, reflecting the summertime exodus of market players. Turnover was only 61 million shares worth C$1.3 billion.

By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York slipped just 23.17 points or 0.27 percent to 8574.85. Banks were definitely the losers of the day, said Fred Ketchen, director of equity trading at ScotiaMcLeod. "The cut off the top in that sector continues," Ketchen said. Also, "there remains absolutely no joy in the oil and gas sector."

Only one of the index's 14 subgroups managed to rise: pipelines by 1.35 percent. The other 13 subindexes were swept lower, led by oil and gas, off 3 percent, and the critical financial services sector, 2.84 percent lower. The sell-off in financial services, which is the gorilla of the index with a weighting of nearly 25 percent, kept rolling from Friday's downdraft.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce , the nation's largest bank by asset size, frightened players late last week when it warned that third-quarter figures, due out soon, would disappoint investors. Shares in CIBC once again topped the most actives and fell C$1.20 to C$35.95 on turnover of nearly 5.3 million shares.

Ketchen noted that investors were afraid that CIBC's failure to match street expectations, partly due to a drop in equity-related revenues at U.S. brokerage Oppenheimer & Co., will extend to Canada's other banks, most of which own brokerages. Shares in Royal Bank of Canada fell C$3 to C$73.50. The banking sector has lost 7.99 percent since closing trading Thursday at 9069.38 points.

One of the biggest stories of the day came from a stock that was halted all session. Entertainment powerhouse Livent Inc. suspended its founder and vice chairman Garth Drabinsky after an internal probe unearthed "serious" accounting discrepancies worth millions of dollars. Livent closed Friday at C$10.15.

Ketchen noted that some investors feel Canada's largest equities market is poised to stop its bleeding since it has nearly reached a 15 percent correction from its record high of 7835.75 points, hit in April.
"I'm going to say the worst is over but I think the drag is still to come," Ketchen said.
( $1-$1.52 Canadian )

Australia, New Z. and Japan are open, down slightly. Japan off about 100 points ( 1 percent )

All: I think spudmaster or GoldenCheesehead pointed out that WJC would use the FBI files against the Republicans to avoid impeachment. Looks like he was right. -- Please see below. Whatever happens, the mud and sexual innuendos will be flying on both sides of the fence.
http://www.salonmagazine.com/news/1998/08/05news.html

Phase 3 of the stock market crash began today. Phase 2 ended with
the 3-day rally last Wednesday thru Friday. Already, after 1 down day,
the advance-decline line is ready to break into new low territory.

The decline will end in another mini-panic -- in a little over 1 week.
At that point, the DJIA may be 7000.

Then another mild rally, then a September crash.

August 10, 1998

Dollar managing gains thanks to Bank of Canada

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Canadian dollar's continuing weakness is getting mighty pricey for the Bank of Canada, which Monday injected millions more into currency markets to try to lift the loonie.

Analysts estimated the central bank spent between $200 million and $500 million US to bolster the buck.

"I would think that if you took the two days combined, they've probably spent over $1 billion US of their reserves, perhaps even more than that," said Andrew Pyle, a fixed-income analyst with CT Securities.
"It's a short-term measure, a Band-Aid solution at best." Weakness in the Canadian dollar began with the Asian crisis, which depressed commodity prices and sent international investment capital stampeding for the safety of the U.S. money market.

There isn't a central bank in the world that can spend foreign reserves indefinitely to protect a weak currency, Pyle said. Indeed, Asia has provided a chilling reminder of what can happen when they try.

"It is no wonder that our dollar continues to slide. Talk is cheap and thanks to ( Finance Minister ) Paul Martin's inaction, so is our dollar."

Martin has said the economy is fundamentally strong and the dollar's slide is similar to that of other world currencies compared with the U.S. dollar.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Dollar.html

The break-down in stock prices in Mexico suggests that the bail-out
package from 3 years ago is already beginning to un-ravel.

Watch, as the Asian contagion spreads to Latin America.

How much are you risking on that prediction ?

All: Indecisiveness in American leadership, and reduced military readiness is increasing the risk of war. The message I get is that the North Koreans know they would lose in an all-out war. But -- the North Korean leaders may not act rationally if their backs are against the wall. And -- the non-delivery of promised US oil and nuclear technology is raising tensions.
http://www.insightmag.com/articles/story4.html

In analyzing whether we're headed toward inflation or deflation, an
important consideration is NOT the outstanding par-value off all
debt, but rather the MARKET-VALUE of that debt.

Deflation can occur with total debt expands, if the market-value of that
debt is sinking faster that the government can issue new debt. With
the securities markets grossly inflated, such a scenario is likely.

Watch for bond prices to plunge ( and bond yields rise ) as savage
deflation causes bondholders to question the credit-worthiness of
borrowers.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

I feel fairly certain that the crash will happen this time around. For one
thing, the pace of the decline is already proceeding faster than the
1929, 1987, 1990 Tokyo, & 1997 Hong Kong crashes.

The speed of the early stages of the decline is usually a good
indicator of how serious the entire decline will be. To have a 9%
decline in the first 2 weeks of a crash is unprecedented. Usually,
the initial decline is only 3% to 8%.

Also, most sentiment indicators show abundant optimism -- not the
sign of a bottom -- rather, it shows a top.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Holds about as much validity as does the statement buy on the dips or better yet stay with the market long term and you will do well! The liquidity on the Dow is waning and it is only a matter of time until that thin air below 8500 pulls the market back to earth......... Look out below should be this weeks market prediction!

So, are you saying that the grand bull cycle is done and that we are looking at a secular bear market? I'll believe a cyclical bear market, but I'm not ready to accept a secular bear....yet.

Once again, the River of Sorrows has devastated Northern China and placed the government in the unenviable position of either having to spend its precious foreign reserves on relief efforts, or devaluing the Yuan! As the rain keeps falling upstream, it appears that China will now be compelled to choose the latter. There simply is no other alternative! The results for Asia, and for the world, will, of necessity, be catastrophic!

Yours was the first post today about ABX shorts.
Do you have anything to add?
I see that Euro/Franco- Nevada are really getting whacked. Trades are mostly in big blocks. Does anyone have any poop on this, or is it just catch up time with the rest of the N.A. golds?

Especially since he is never around when the market is rising to
take responsibility for the hundreds of dollars his followers lose listening to his advice ( I seriously doubt they have more than this all told ) . Steve, do you hang around hospital beds in the ICU and tell
people they are going to die?

The dickens with the new lows. I wanna know when we are going to see some new highs. Maybe even some up, forget about highs.

for Y2K that some might be interested in attending or followng
http://www.legalwks.com/

Personally, I think in the next several days the dow will find support somewhere below recent low and 8000 where it would begin a feeble counter rally.

A crash might occur in the 2nd week of September when the Earth aligns with Saturn.

For nearly two decades now, the governments of the OECD have, to a greater and lesser degree, facilitated the move toward a globalised economy under the neo-liberal agenda. As has been discussed the fundamental conepts behind this agenda are the supremacy of the market, the percieved failure of government, footloose international capital, flexibility of labour markets, downsizing, privatisation and de-regulation. Francis Castles argued that it was this emergance of globalisation under the neo-liberal free-market agenda which makes this period of globalisation different from previous periods such as the gold standard regime of 1879 - 1914. Criticism of this agenda is growing. There is now a substantial body of opinion which has agued that theis agenda is socially destructive and is undermining the social fabric. What then are the flaws in this agenda, and how do they impact on the national security of the nation-state?
Was has emerged in the last two decades, and particularly since the collapse of communism has been the dominance of the neo-liberal laissez-faire economic agenda. There has been an assumption of triumph for Anglo-Saxon capitalism which has brought a steel chain of ideas to economic policy thinking. It has created an overwhelming bias against government intervention in domestic economic and social affairs. There have been some unfortunate assmptions and conclusions made about this approach. Firstly, despite the enthusiasm of economists and policy makers the free market ideology has yet to prove itself. Blanca Heredia pointed out that two countries, Mexico and Thailand, had embraced the free-market agenda and yet had not enjoyed stable or equitable economic growth. Indeed both nations suffered a currency collapse and retarded economic growth. Stephen Bell has argued that the neo-liberal reforms conducted by the Australian Labor Government in the 1980s had failed the greater interests of the Australian community. Secondly, Alan Tonelson argued that the globalisation debate had taken place in a simplistic black or white manner. Thus arguments are presented in an either pro or anti globalisation posture rather than in a balanced mature way. Indeed:
Free trade versus protectionism is how the deabte is typically framed - as if anyone were advocating either removing all controls over international commerce or permitting no such commerce whatsoever. The situation is analogous to the debate over American foreign policy, with most commentators endlessly and fruitlessly debating engagement versus isolationism, and neglecting what form engagement should take.

The excessive faith in free-market forces will now be reviewed.
Paul Ormerod attacked the neo-liberal agenda in his book, The Death of Economics. His assault is all the more compelling as he is an Oxbridge trained economist and businessman. Ormerod challenges the fundamental arguments and assumptions of the neo-liberal school of economists. Firstly, he points out that Adam Smith, the doyen of modern Thatcherite economists, was in fact a moral philosopher who argued that the free-market model needed a moral and ethical framework in which to work. Modern disciples of Smiths work focus on his economic analysis and totally ignore his guiding moral principles. Smith himself would be appalled at the short-term greed is good approach of neo-liberal economics and its disregard of social justice.
Secondly, Ormerod argues that modern economists have disregarded the practical approach of the classical economists like Smith and David Ricardo. Smith and Ricardo did empirical studies of the way the world worked and built their economic models accordingly. Modern economists do the opposite. They create a model and try to bash the world into fitting the shape of that model. To draw an analogy, this is like a map maker who blows up mountains and fills in rivers so that the terrain fits their map, rather than drawing an appropriate map for the terrain that surrounds them.
Thirdly, economics is not an exact science but an imprecise art. The track record of economic modelling has been poor and yet economics and economists are regarded as some higher force whose perscriptions and dictates are not only unsolicited but are also flawed. Indeed, economists are often wrong but never in doubt. The economy itself is not a linear system where predictions can be made easily, rather it is a chaotic system whose outcomes are in many cases unpredictable.
On a practical level, Ormerod demostrated the failures of free market principles when put into practice. Looking at the currency markets, the practice of floating exchanges and currency speculation has resulted in the weakening of state controls over economic outcomes, and those controls that do remain have adverse social consequences when put into place. Using France as an example he argued that
the abolition of controls on the movement of capital on the foreign exchanges has removed a powerful weapon used by the authorities in defence of their currencies from the occaisional speculative attack. Instead, they have been forced to rely on high interest rates to carry out this function. In France, the absolute priority of economic policy during the past decade has been the preservation of the value of the Franc abroad, the policy of le franc fort. To achieve this aim, interest rates have been very high. And unemployment has risen almost continuously throughout the 1980s to the current level of around 3 million.

Finally, the neo-liberal agenda encouraged short term high risk speculative investment with little employment orientated outcomes, rather than long term productive investment which provided employment and material well being for the mass of the population. The irony of this is that the worlds largest and most succesful economy, the United Statets, which was built on a long term profit perspective, has now adopted the short term greed is good profit motive which has undermined the infrastructural and educational basis for its future growth and profit.
Thus, Ormerods message is clear. The New Right neo-liberal economic model is flawed. It fails to account for the greater non-economic needs in a society; that society and community are more than just economic relationships. The economic reductionism which regards everything in terms of market value and profit/loss has become the key concept driving economic policy. Ormerod maintains that this would have been an anathema to Adam Smith.
Critics on the political Left have argued strongly since the early 1980s about the perils of an unbridled free-market economy. Thier greatest concerns were the effects of an inflation first policy on the levels of unemployment, the danger of an unstable financial system prone to systemic uncertainty and collapse, the re-distribution of wealth from the lower and middle classes to the wealthy, and the effect that all these developments would have on the social fabric of a nation It would now appear that these fears are being realised.
Laurie Aarons examined the question of wealth distribution in Australia. Using reputable data from sources as diverse as Business Review Weekly and the Department of Social Security, Aarons demonstrated an increase in the gap between the richest and poorest members of Australia society in the 1982 - 83 to 1993 - 94 period. His breakdown is as follows.
- Super rich ( incomes of $500,000 a year and over ) are 2.6 times better off after tax than in 1982 - 83.

- High incomes ( $90,000 and over ) are 32% better off;

- Affluent incomes ( $50,00 to $89,000 ) are 1.6% better off.

- These three groups, 632.374 are 8.3% of taxpayers. The remaining nearly 7 million taxpayers are worse off than their counterparts in 1982 - 83.

- Middle incomes ( $25,000 to $49,000 ) are 2.5% worse off.

- Low incomes ( $1 to $24,999 ) are 3% worse off.

Aarons concluded that inequality has grown rapidly over the last 30 years and advocated a new direction for economic policy which involved state intervention to reform the taxation system into something more equitable and the resumption of public infrastructure projects.
In Germany too there has also been an increase in wealth disparity. German workers are being told that their wages are too high and their conditions are too luxurious. Indeed
Germany is supposed to learn for [the neo-liberal] America, where a larger proportion of people work but only at a price of lower wages, minimal social benefits, longer working hours and worse working conditions. One of the spokesman for higher returns of capital in Germany puts the case crisply enough: A 20% reduction in gross wages is necessary to have full employment again.

In the meantime the burden of taxation has moved away from business and the self employed. Taxes are beign cut for the wealthy while social services, which have benefitted the less well off, have been reduced. Indeed the state thus becomes an agency for bottom-to-top redistribution.
The practical result of these policies can best be seen in the United States where free-market principles have always been their strongest. While the economic recovery of the 1990s has been touted by neo-liberal economist as proof of the virtues of free-market economics, the recovery has had a more sinister undertone. Shurmann and Peter-Martin described the situation
The wealthiest and most productive country in the world in the world has changed itno the largest low-wage economy... In 1995 four-fifths of all male employees and workers in the United States earned 11% less an hour in real terms than they did in 1973. In other words, for the great majority, living standards have been falling for the last two decades, In the old days of the golden 1960s, John F. Kennedy summed up the expectation of rising prosperity in a simple formula: when the river rises, every boat on the water rises with it... But... the Reagan era produced a type of economy to which this metaphor no longer applies.

In contrast, Lester Thurow observed that:
in the 1980s, all of the earnings growth in the U.S. fell to the highest paid 20% of the workforce, with an amazing 64% of the growth going to the wealthiest 1%. The pay of the average Fortune 500 CEO [Chief Executive Officer] rose from 35 to 157 times that of the average production worker.

The social implications of this change are staggering.

What is developing in the United States is a divided society. There is a growing tendency of wealthier Americans to literally wall themselves off from the problems of their fellow countrymen. The United States is beginning to resemble chronically divided, class-ridden third world societies. The great danger is that relatively wealthy western societies such as the U.S., Germany and Australia which were once considered to be the model of develpoment for third world countries will become divided and impoverished. Indeed the third world will become the model for the west. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned of such an outcome in 1995.
Will the whole world turn into one big Brazil, into countries with complete inequality and ghettos for the rich elite? With this question you take the bull by the horns. Of course even Russia is becoming Brazil.

There is a strong argument to be made that this agenda is underming the social cohesiveness of western societies. In Germany Schurmann and Peter-Martin observed that in Germany [social] unity is crumbling even though geographically it has only just been achieved. They report that Germany has experienced a rising crime rate in recent years, and that the general German populace is beginning to imitate the U.S. model of social dislocation and Brazilianisation. In Australias case, there is a growing unease about the course of social developments and Australias future. Hugh Emy, in his many studies of Australian society noted the rise in tension and anxiety. While he targets a number of courses for this anxiety, he notes some specific reactions.
The tone is negative, but the energy level remains high. These women are angry, not depressed. Theres a recurring theme: Im sure my own mother had an easier time than Im having.

Oh, we cant go anywhere at present. John thinks hes about to be retrenched. The strain is nearly killing him.

Resentment about current circumstances and fear of unemployment and economic dislocation are leading to an unsettled society, and a society which is searching for scapegoats. The relentless process of downsizing by both government and business in accordance with the free-market neo-liberal agenda is fuelling this fear in western society and this fear is a threat to the society itself. I shall expand upon this theme below.
While criticism of the free market agenda from the political Left is to be expected, the great irony or perhaps paradox of the neo-liberal agenda is that social dislocation has become so acute that even previously free-market advocates are questioning the continued implementation of the Thatcher/Reagan agenda.

http://www.legalwks.com/ I hope this works!!!^s^

pRIME mINISTER Cretien has to take the full blame for the Canadian $ downfall. As recently as last week he was caught on the golf course saying that there is no problem and BOC inaction was just fine.
Now that Canadian bank shares are melting down in the stock market the tune is changing but the damage is done.
Canada is target no. ONE for the short sellers........

I just read your post on ABX shorting. I've been following the ABX short position for over a year now.

It's a very simple indicator as to the future POG.

I am so sure that once the ABX shorts have been covered, the POG will be moving up for a very long time. A time to uncork the champaigne and celebrate when that happens!!!!!!

I have an EMail message from ABX Investor Relations tha say the share buyback is under review. They have not bought a single share of ABX!!

That means, the management is PROTECTING the shorters!!!!!!
Very odd when they should be enhancing shareholder value.

But then not surprising when you consider that MUNK and BUSH involved in this fiasco.

I also use MUNK the SKUNK as a contrarian indicator. Listen VERY VERY closely when he speaks. Then know the opposite will happen.

What Lincoln Foresaw:
Corporations Being "Enthroned" After the Civil War and Re-Writing the Laws Defining Their Existence

Fortunately, after some burrowing in the univ. library, I was able to confirm its authenticity. Here it is, with more surrounding context:

"We may congratulate ourselves that this cruel war is nearing its end.
It has cost a vast amount of treasure and blood. . . .
It has indeed been a trying hour for the Republic; but
I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes
me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war,
corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places
will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong
its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth
is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.
I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety
of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.
God grant that my suspicions may prove groundless."

The passage appears in a letter from Lincoln to ( Col. ) William F. Elkins, Nov. 21, 1864.

For a reliable pedigree, cite p. 40 of The Lincoln Encyclopedia, by Archer H. Shaw ( Macmillan, 1950, NY ) .
That traces the quote's lineage to p. 954 of Abraham Lincoln: A New Portrait, ( Vol. 2 ) by Emanuel Hertz
( Horace Liveright Inc, 1931, NY ) .

Based on about 3 hrs of research, it appears Lincoln has been extensively SANITIZED FOR OUR PROTECTION. The Hidden Lincoln; from the Letters and Papers of William H. Herndon, by Emanuel Hertz ( Viking Press, 1938, NY ) , details how Herndon ( Lincoln's lifelong law partner ) collected an extensive oral history and aggregated much of Lincoln's writings into a collection that served as the basis for many "authoritative" books on Lincoln.

By all accounts, Herndon was scrupulously honest and plainspoken. Hertz quotes Herndon's characterization of the various "big-name" authors who relied on his collection for primary source materials:

"They are aiming, first, to do a superb piece of literary work; second, to make the story WITH THE CLASSES AS AGAINST THE MASSES. [my emphasis added] It will result in delineating the real Lincoln about as well as does a wax figure in the museum."

In several books, I found numerous places where Lincoln spoke about Capital and Labor ( "Workingmen" ) . Lincoln re-used his own material frequently, and virtually identical passages appear in several places. Lincoln praises the moral rightness of both Capital and Labor, but this is invariably in the context of a nation where NO MORE THAN ONE MAN IN EIGHTis a Capitalist or a Laborer, ie, where 7/8 of the population are "self-employed" on their own farms and homesteads.

This social context of general self-sufficiency would explain how Lincoln could serve for years as a railroad corporation lawyer with ( apparently ) no qualms, yet pen the "corporations enthroned" passage to Elkins.

A final Lincoln tidbit, although it pertains to one very specific case:

"These capitalists generally act harmoniously and in concert to fleece the people, and now that they have got into a quarrel with themselves, we are called upon to appropriate the people's money to settle the quarrel."

speech to Illinois legislature, Jan. 1837. See Vol. 1, p. 24 of Lincoln's Complete Works, ed. by Nicolay and Hay, 1905 )

http://www.ratical.com/corporations/Lincoln.html

As luck would have it, the one gold stock that I own the MOST shares in is Pegasus ( PSGQF ) . It was horrible to see it go from over $3.00 down to only 30 cents per share...but now it has dropped clear down to .035 per share!!! Is there any remote hope of Pegasus recovering, or will the stock become totally worthless?

...and if Pegasus falls totally, will other gold stocks become worthless too? WHICH gold stocks will recover? -- and how can we have confidence in them?

Right now it seems as though NOTHING is safe, because the dollar could come crashing down so quickly it would make our heads swim. Yet buying gold and gold stocks has driven many of us into an apparent loss of financial security at the profit of others. When does it ever end?

Full moons, and conjunctions of planets, as well as fundamental analysis, have nothing whatsoever to do with the POG.
It's politics.
If that wasn't the case then, all of our fabulous "leaders" would be wearing pointy hats adorned with mystic runes.
Someone point out a single asstrologer that has publically predicted a financial event, put their own money on it, and won the big prize.
Apologies to Mike. You are a good guy in spite of it.


away to get glow-in-the-dark stars and crescent moons.

Seems like them bastards like to golf. Klinton will be golfing at Ballybunion on Sat, Sept 5 with Dick Spring. If that coincides around a stockmarket crash it would be a bit like Nero playing fiddle.

No offense to golfers intended, just the ruling elite.

As I have posted here in the past, the huge ABX short position is due largely to a hedging strategy of holders of ABX convertible debentures. They buy the debenture and sell the stock; in this way they "lock in" the coupon rate. If you will, these are covered shorts.

I see as many demons as anyone, but this ain't a demon.

sam__a.

want to check out who is going to be speaking at that lil' ol Y2K conference on my 20:58 post....

One of Clinton's friends gave him a parrot without realizing it had come from a brothel. The staff put the birdcage up in one of the White House rooms. The first time Chelsea walked in, the parrot said, "Too young". When Hilliary walked in the room, the parrot said, "Too old". When Bill walked in the room, the parrot said, "Hi, Bill".

This gentleman "Omerod of Oxbridge" that was the subject of your novelette of 20:51.- Isn't he the fount of all of the economist jokes that we read here? Or is it just Oxbridge that turns out so many polished comedians?

Hello Puetz,

Could you please tell us why is it that the stock market didn't crash by December 1st of last year at the latest?

Did you get the final entry point that you were looking for to buy more S&P put options last November? And how did your other bunch of put options did in the steep rise of the market that followed?

Thanks.

Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 23:12
Puetz ( @bpuetz.holli.com ) ID#222167:
Panda: I watch VIX also. You're right, it has been going to the moon. I've been trying to buy more S&P put options, but the premiums are rich indeed. That's good for the options I presently own, but bad when I want to buy more of them.

I'm hoping for one final entry point on a last batch op put options this coming week. If I don't get them, fine -- I already own a bunch of them. If I do get some more, it'll be a gift from heaven. I agree with Prechter -- at the latest, stock will crash by December 1st or 2nd.

Speaking of Golfers that fit the pack, how is OJ doing.
When all the brokers and analysts are found on the gold course, thats when the markets tank..........

Suggest you read his book. Nothing to joke about.

Live Long and Prosper.

Any Luck with Adelaide Exchange Jewellers??

A safer play than those foul S&P option thingies might be to short some of the few stocks that really make up that index. The common folk believe that five hundred stocks make up the index, but it's more like twenty stocks that count and still fewer that REALLY count......

Live Long and Prosper.

You can get a report from PCGS at a small charge per coin.

SELL SPYDERS ( SPY ) on the Amex. Just like shorting a stock! Never expires worthless. Always mirrors the Index. No volatility premiums. Spyders IMHO is the way to go short the S&P! Or to go long if'n you like to lose money! Heh.heh.heh!

Haven't heard anything about OJ since he did that thing with the banana for British TV. Where is OJ living now?

As to Golfing by rulers, I think they do it for a bit of nonchalance, a bit of "Don't worry about it, I'm not worried, I'm going to play a round of golf."

Didn't George Herbert Walker Bush also go golfing when Iraqi troops moved into Kuwait?

Before you go. Reagan/Thatcher rules.

George Herbert Walker Bush went Fishing,Hunting, Speed Boating and went over to See the troops. He was a MAN to be proud of not the kind of person there now.

Is the DOW at 30 PE and 5 to 6 times BV REALISTIC?

Is Microsoft, DELL or Cisco at 50 PE REALISTIC? Is their price to book or price to sales REALISTIC?

Are the INTERNET stocks REALISTIC ( or even in this universe? ) ?

Is the IPO mania REALISTIC?

Has any of the escalation in the US Financial Markets since the start of 1997 been REALISTIC?

The problem with Mr. Puetz is he is sane and took a rational look at the US Financial Markets. It is a financial bubble being pumped by liquidity, hype, and an investment community of salesmen ( well paid, I might add ) rather than advisors. I doubt if the majority of "investors" today even bother to look at the financial statements of the companies they buy. I cannot fault a rational person in an irrational setting.

For me, I would like to hear what Mr. Puetz has to say. I can decide if I agree with his point of view, and the responsibility for any investment moves I make are mine, not his. IMHO, many of us here at this site have had a more REALISTIC viewpoint of the US Financial Markets and, in the end, will prove to be correct.

You must have gone short in 87 and lost your buns. Well you should have won big. Someone stepped in to buy, buy, buy.Now the value of the DOW is a Big Joke. I was wrong too, but I'm double right now, so is Peutz.

In Canada it is Chretien.
In the U.S.A. it is Clinton
Simply put...They both abuse the privledge of being stupid.

It seems like it't the blue chips ( gold stocks ) turn to take a lickin'. I was reading the August 10 issue of TIME magazine and came across the 'investment' section which had some recommendations for positioning yourself in the stock market. It seems the columns advisor feels there is more market risk than usual from.... INFLATION. Imagine that. The writer of the column advised AGAINST gold, but was in favor of.... Treasury inflation indexed notes! Damn! It seems like gold can't even win when the game is in it's home town! Fear not though, this debacle will look like inflation, but in fact will be a currency driven event. Therefore it would be prudent to have some of the ultimate currency in one form or another initially, then for the latter innings, the real thing.

Who would argue that the Canadian dollar is considered low ( Shorted to death ) ? Therefore if you took U.S dollars at its' premium and bought something substantial in Canada...when our economies return to their proper levels you will have hedged against the falling U.S. dollar and made money on the rising Canadian. All the socialist labels and communist slurs that you hurl at Canadians don't change the fact that we are ardent capitalists.We have got everything here. When all the commodities in the world have been consumed we will still have more than our fair share. The world will pay through the nose for them. Fresh water, gold in the ground, uranium, nickel, hydro electricity, lumber, oil, natural gas, Pamela Anderson and Shannon Tweed. OH! BEER AND LIQOUR! GOT CANADIAN? If you snooze you will lose.

THIS IS A BULLY PREDICTION OF AUG.10, 1998. SIEZE THE MOMENT!

This has been a Nationalistic Propagandist Announcement. ( It's a great life if you don't weaken. )

Don't get so down on Canada. You still have Dudley Dooright!!!

Take heart, I have suffered the carnage of the total collapse of gold stocks, in which they fall to around .03, but not much lower. It probably is some lower limit that a stock reaches, wherein the face value of the paper stock certificate kicks in. Don't know for sure, but I assure you, I feel your pain. How can this be that legitimate and viable businesses are being decimated in their market value? Usually this occurs on some corruption/fraud news within the company, not in healthy going concern. This is the power of the media and the financial institutions. Yes they can and do manipulate individual stocks as well as industries. And as the reality drifts further away from markets, these entities will increasingly prey upon weak industries and stocks. That is the way it is. The extracted wealth in turn is used to prop up their illusions and scams. This is why there is a "peak" in the graph of a market top, as the last bullheart is squeezed to propel a select few to the climax. Natural systems use gaussian and other smoother distributions; only the markets and manias use sharp spikes and steep swings. Only a fool would believe that ALL the value has gone out of a legitimate stock and industry; Only a fool participates in a final run-up that is fueled by parasitism of those weaker stocks and industries. Of course, if he had engineered that final runup, he would know when to exit.

ah-ha!

yes

Off to dream of high gold , a higher Canadian dollar, prosperity and good will toward men...particularly me!

With all respects, Bob Hope did meme chose.

Tom

Who is borrowing money to buy big? Holy macarel.EB.

NINE ASIAN MARKETS DOWN! Any questions?

pumping gas in Yellowknife because he doesn't know what to do in his spare time. Oh ...and the blonde he supposedly saved from the saw blade in the saw mill...You got it! She's split!

We have really low rates here in the states and they could ( ? ) go lower, even though they are extremely low as it is. My question - what countries in the world, right now, are at the other end of the spectrum ? That is to say, if you wanted to purchase an interest based investment, which country should you be looking at to get a good bargain ? Related, how do zero-coupons fit into the picture ?

My understanding of zero-coupon bonds is that you pick up a bond with a face value of say, 1000$US, for a certain amount of cash. That amount depends on the prevailing interest rates when you purchase the bond and there are no interest payments over the life of the bond, only it's face value at redemption. Sooooo, to get a good deal, you need high rates ?

I know this is a Gold discussion group and I apologize, but there are a lot of really bright people here-bouts.

I love natural Resources. Gold, Oil, fishing etc. You guys have it all.

NOW DOWN 100 PTS!! DEVALUATION, HERE WE COME!!

a tax proposed by an American economist a few years ago in which
a small ( fraction of a percent ) tax was leveied on every financial
transaction. If you withdraw money from a teller, the govt gets
.1 or .2%. This compares with the 1 dollar service charge I get
charged every time I withdraw pocket money via a teller that goes
to the bankers. If the Tobin tax was applied to the currency
speculators, much of this run on currencies would disappear
overnight, and so would the national debt. Instead we got
bank service charges, GST, and PST, that are real taxes against
consumption, are inflationary, and let the real culprits get off
scott free! I wonder if Tobin is even alive now. People who
introduce good workable ideas that solve real world problems, but
tick off the powers that be, have a habit of disappearing!

Get his tape-recording that says the dow is falling and play it
as much as you like. As for me, Steve has demonstrated an
inability to read the market save for saying it is always falling.

Yes, Bonds have had a damn good run. Theyre not going a great deal farther,. and could back up bigtime.

Sure..you got all those natural resources, because of idiodic socialism you can't get them out of the ground.
Idiot Brian Tobin fighting with Inco Nickel at Voisy Bay.
Super socialist Idiot Clark has destroyed British Columbia.
Socialist Idiot Chretian has an excuse for being stupid he is a lawyer.
And the shorters are doing you a favour, with your G.N. P. versus dept ratio the Canadian dollar is worth 42 cents.

Kinda like our democrats.

You been porked and don't know it.

I understand from my reading that having low rates makes the zero-coupon bonds worth more ( for some reason ) , but is that true if you're purchasing them and holding them until maturity ?

I mean, I thought the way they worked was, say, you want a zero with a redemption value of 1000$US. If rates are low, they might go for, what, 200$US ? If rates are high, they go for 90$US ? I'm not even sure that's all true at all, I know nothing about zeros.

Anyway, in this case I'm not interested in a "top" in the trading, that is, I'm not interested in the fact that they are getting more and more valuable as rates fall, I'm interested in finding a place in the world where you can get them really cheap right now and hold them to maturity.

I could just be totally confused about the whole thing. Help appreciated.

I have been watching ABX trade in real time for the last two weeks and my gut tells me that the trading pattern reflects an almost fearful frenzy of shorting. It seems that just when the momentum begins to build we get a fifteen cent downtick followed by a sizeable offer below the previous trade to the downtick. I have watched this pattern on the VSE for many years and am shocked that the Company has not used its buyback program to squeeze the shorts out.... Is the tail wagging the dog or is the dog wagging the tail! Either way it is an effective means of controlling the gold market momentum.... It is time Mr. Munk showed his true colors and stepped down from the mining game as it is evident he has turned his back on the industry................ His political interests have ruined his ability to run a great company as he spends more time rubbing elbows with the ASS##### that are selling us down the river in Canada.... As a Canadian I am ashamed of the lack of ability our Government shows in dealing with our currency crisis as they bravely announce they have sold more gold. Mr. Munk has become one of them!

How about Canada. If their Dollar is worth 42 cents. There you go.

Canada is like most every country in the western world. It is illegally enslaved to a private banking cartel practising usury.

If your govt just printed its own fiat currency instead of borrowing it from a usurer, then Canada would definitely be one of the most prosperous countries in the world.

If it wasn't for Idiots : Socialism: I Would be absolutley speechless.

The liberals will take the blame for Canada's recession/depression, and will never rule again. The economy improves over time, and you have done well.

A recent announcement by Pegasus Gold Corporation that "common share holders are not likely to receive any value..." Check Yahoo's site on PGSFQ. I own a bunch of Pegasus, too, and have taken a bath in them. How can these people get away with their treachery?

I feel your pain. ( copyright,WJBC )
Here is one for you that might give you some perspective on mining "stories".

www.goodbytes.com/pennygold/index

This man is realistic.

I meant to add. Canada has Socialism so that the govt spends, goes into debt, and the banks collect interest on Sovereign debt.

The US spends much on war as opposed to countries like Canada or Sweden spend on Socialism. The propaganda in both countries promote different aspects but the end result is the same: an indebted country with its citizens enslaved.

Where do you see the market going? Easy to criticize Puetz. Time to put up or shut up.

The money didn't cause their problem. Bad policy can overcome free money.

PPT? It has a massive weighting on the XAU, and if I wanted to
discourage gold investment, and encourage DOW investments, I would
short ABX, and buy the 30 or so major index stocks on the DOW.

True, that is why the US Constitution mandates a Gold & Silver Standard.

The members of The US Supreme Court should be tried for treason for allowing this crime to happen.

Get your Capatalistic ass up there, buy up some farm land , hunting lodges, and a few castles at 50 cents on the dollar.
Lets show them Socialist Beefs or Porks how $$$$$$$$ are made if you ain't on welfare.

I certainly agree that powerful bankers took control of our treasury. Dishonest men were bribed by whom. Did the clandestine organization cease with banking, or are the active today. Money the root of all evil.

I propose the new paradigm: duh-flation, to accompany the mindless shift that is occurring between the have-some and the have more's. We should notice that, like inflation of past times, this duh-flation does not affect the upper striations of wealth, in fact they feed upon the lower striations, because we shift to a zero-or-less-sum game. Expanding economies will produce new wealth, but this is a two-edged sword, that will also decimate wealth on the downside of ( no ) growth and markets. It is at best amusing to watch the massive psychology and manipulation that has been stepped up notches by the media to keep the masses in the market long enough to get shorn. Perhaps it is unintentional, but their responsibility is not just after the fact;;;;;;-----it is REAL TIME. They have the power to warn --- why don't they do it??.

Whether we are watching the greatest manipulation of all time, or the greatest mania remains to be seen. However, the result will most likely be the same.....

"duh-flation", copyright KITCO, AZAU, 1998

Blooper: I wasn't short neither long in 87, I was too young to trade.

SILVERFOX: You're right... it doesn't seem too realistic anymore but the market still kept moving up eh? So do we trade what seems to be realistic according to our point of views or the direction ( trend ) of the market?

Old Gold: I didn't even start to critisize yet... I'm only asking questions. I do have the right to question, right? Right!

The clandestine organization covets the press,, the media,,,, and the government. Senator by senator,. Even unscrupulous presidents. Wow.

You take a candidate such as Idi Aman or Adolph Hitler and run them as a candidate in a Canadian election, They would be guaranteed winners as long as they ran as Liberals.

"idiotic socialism" Only in Canada eh!

They are like folks here. The want manna from government. Who can get the most?

Shepler Market Timer now anticipates short-term countertrend rally.


Market Commentary:

It has been our position that last weeks lows of 8418.92 on the Dow
and 1057.35 on the S&P 500 cash index would be revisited and exceeded to
the downside this week. Some recent short-term sentiment readings are
beginning to cast some doubt on that forecast. The reading which
concerns us most is Monday's Rydex ratio. The Rydex ratio as of Monday's
close was a whopping 88%, a major increase from Friday's 59% reading.
Since a high number represents high short-term bearish sentiment among
speculators, we think this contrary indicator is arguing for a
continuation of last weeks oversold bounce in the days ahead. Also, the
very low volume seen on Monday's downmove lends more credence to the
possibility of a rally in the days ahead. Remember expanding volume a
down day is bearish, but contracting volume on a down day is bullish.
So, we are beginning to beleive that the corrective retracement of
the declines from July 20th to August 5th has more upside potential
before the market will again turn downward and exceed the Aug. 5th lows.
From an E-wave standpoint we think Monday's action was a B-wave within
an A-B-C corrective retracement rally of the 8/5 low. If so, we should
see a strong C-wave rally begin in the coming days. This rally will
likely only last long enough to shake out the weak handed bears and
sucker in a few more bulls, possibly only a day or two and a few hundred
Dow points to the upside. In the coming days the picture should become
much clearer.
The one thing keeping us from becoming too bullish about the very
short-term prospects for the market is the continued lousy internals.
New lows are again expanding while new highs are shrinking. Monday's
trading saw 191 New lows and only 21 new highs. Also on Monday Decliners
swamped Advancers by a margin of 2 to 1 at 1985 decliners to 983
advancers. However, our buy/sell indicator looks like it will give
another weak borderline buy signal Tuesday barring a complete market
collapse. The OEX put/call ratio was neutral at 1.05, so not much to be
gleaned from that indicator.
Basically we have a mixed bag for Tuesday's trading, but we are
leaning toward the bullish side at least for a few days here. We do not
feel comfortable initiating a long position given the poor internals,
but we also do not feel comfortable holding on to a short position with
such a high reading from the Rydex ratio. Our trading philosophy is of a
contrarian bent, so we do not want to be in the company of so many
short-term bearish speculators. At least for the next few days. So we
will be switching out of the Ursa fund and to the Rydex money market
fund Tuesday. We fully plan to re-initiate our Ursa trade on any ensuing
rally, once our short-term sentiment measures turn overly bullish again.
For now we prefer the sidelines. Very aggressive traders could take a
shot at the long side with a Nova trade, but we are not comfortable with
the risk of such a position given the weak technical picture for the the
market.

-nice to see you back, posting from that bastion of freedom, Eire. ( kidding )
Your point is well taken. The transparent propaganda that spews from the governments should never be taken seriously.
Wev'e got our troops in one hundred countries now. I'd like to have our so called representatives give the third- degree to the secretary of state about our "commitments" everywhere.
I think that four hours of continuous testimony per country should be about right.
Of course with a gold standard the USG wouldn't have the "money" to fund our empire.

Gospud go gold. 1776 now.

Nothing like a depression to rile the populace.

Nothing like a depression to rile the populace.

It's a pretty good racket: the license to counterfeit money, loan it to a "sovereign" nation, charge interest for it, and just sit back and let the money flow in.

I'm not sure who is behind it all, but you can be sure that the dynasties involved are still quite active in the Scam.

Today's gold rally did not last long. Piddling gain already wiped out tonight. Still looks like a final shakeout to marginal new lows in the cards.

I hope you're right.... I'm just sittin here powder dry and all that. Might take a bit of a crashlike action to get some fear going, and get the XAU to washout area.

Hello Erle, How are things?

The US built up a pretty good Empire while on the Gold Standard ( until the early 70s ) . The Key to America's Empire are Dollar denominated loans, where dollars must be found to pay interest. It keeps many Banana Republics in Servitude.

Yea.......Eh........ I know that...Sorry for comming down hard on you Socialist swines.....But the wife who is far to young put a dent in my car..got a ugly on.
Got a smuggled bottle going here of Tangle Ridge...Made in Alberta....Ye old Socialist smuggler told me it is good Canadian booze,,,,,He is correct good hootch.
On further investigation I find Alberta Distillers is owned by Jim Beam a good old capitalistic American Company.
The socialists up there can't even make whiskey now.
And that is the rest of the bottle.

What ever floats your boat eh! A depression gets ALL worker's/citizen's/taxpayer's, will the price be worth such suffering, to attack the commie's. Has nothing been learned, from the Cold War? Maybe the USofA did not win the Cold War, yet, eh!
Take Care

People ""just want someone to take care of me". Useless to anyone but a socialist, Communist or a movie star.

This article relates ALL autumn financial panics to Lunar cycles. Specifically, the eighth new moon minus 55 hours. I think even sceptics would be impressed with this one.

http://www.calendarresearch.com/autmn_panics.htm

I think strong individual people with large dreams, the courage to see those dreams through, and persistence of action are the Key to America's Empire. Actually, I think they are the key to pretty much everything now that I think about it. Get enough people like that together and interesting things start happening. Just my humble opinion.

The US dollar policy is just part of the arena in which we play.

Give those communists credit for being honest, they tell you plain out that you own nothing.
Them socialist swines let you think you do.

Breaks below 7,000 tonight. There seems to be a regular cycle going on where intermediary periods of Asian recovery are pierced to the downside by various Asian stock markets. First we had Malaysia and Indonesia. Then South Korea led the charge down. Then Japan. Now Hong Kong. Never the same country twice.

Is this signifigant?

STOCK MARKET

When the average stock is rising in a bull market, the average investor is making money. He thinks he's making money because he's invested wisely, but he is only the average winner in the law of averages. When the market starts down, he sees he isn't making money any more, he's losing money. After a while, he begins to think maybe he's not so smart after all. He sells. One by one investors drop out. Each time one drops out, there's one more seller than before. And the market goes down a tiny bit more. Someone else drops out. And so on. Soon enough the dropping out accelerates. The market drops quickly.

Once again the lesson is learned that was forgotten after the last bull market: It's hard to make money in the stock market. When it's easy to make, it's easy to lose.

Easy come, easy go.

GOLD

No one will claim that gold investors have had it easy. That alone doesn't guarantee a wise investment has been made. But the famous German investor that keeps buying more Homestake shares has a notion that gold will increase in value so as to make Homestake's earnings increase substancially. Why does he think that? Why don't more investors think the same way?

When my Dad bought gold at $79/oz in the 70s, my mother thought he'd lost his mind. But change and great uncertainty was coming.

Y2K

I sat in a product release meeting today. Oh, the gnashing of teeth and sniping over the potential for delays and what features might we have to drop. Imagine a Y2K team in a software release meeting in October 1999, where the stakes are not what orders they'll fill and how much more money are they going to make this quarter because they made the deadline, but whether the company will stay in business if the Y2K team missed it. You'd have to shoot me with a horse tranquilizer before that meeting.

The Fed is openly talking about how much money they're printing to prepare for extra demand as the year 2000 nears. At the same time, the rate at which electronic transactions occur wil begin to slow, significantly between the US and the rest of the world, but also within the US due to so-called "end-to-end" failures of some transactions. Some companies will fail. At about the same time the amount of business activity slows, as the "V" ( velocity of money ) decreases, the availability of cash money explodes. Sounds like a recipe for hyperinflation.

Hope you're all well.

-EJ

That I did not mind taking care of their needs, iffin they took care of mine. Of cours that is a 2 way street, a patriarical form of gobmint.

When will the V form?

Enjoy that hootch. Next time try Seagrams V.O., Canadian Whiskey and Canadian Socialist Water, good drink, makes one act different Eh!
Take Care

Yes those were the type of people who founded and lived in the Republic. They didn't want an Empire. They wanted their God-given rights. Today the Sovereign Individual is an endangered species.

I got some sippin whiskeythat, when you mix with water, makes a socialist twist 3 times and drop. We call it moonshine!!!!

Adelaide Exchange quoting AU$367 per 2kg, AU$18 for 1oz Kooka, AU$27 for 2oz Kooka. Methinks that the Adelaide Arcade guy ( I S Wright ) is having a bit of a sale! All of the retailers are desperately inducing the population to spend, spend, spend. But I think that most people are at the end of their credit worthiness, living from pay check to pay check.
What will be better under your mattress in October 1999? Silver kookas or a stash of cash?
What do you think?
Hi ho silver........

Correction 2kg should read 1kg.

Yeah, well, I hate to admit it but I too feel like people have lost their way, you can see it whenever you see the word "them" in a sentence relating to "our problem ( s ) ". The only person on the earth that is truly responsible for each of us is ourselves. Living "large" as we are isn't exactly the breeding ground for the sovereign - there's too little need for strong leaders, their torn down by people looking for a scape goat ( and no, I'm not making reference to Mr. Clinton ) .

Long live the sovereign.

May we all walk as gods.

I aint supporting no Seagrams whiskey plant I think that Edgar Bronfman is doing a little manipulation on that Swiss gold repatriation.
Is he the guy who scamed the The Canadian Gumint out of millions taking his cash to USA tax free,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a decrease in the velocity of money make cash dollars harder to comeby and thus be a drying up of liquidity, thus deflationary?

Envy: I Agree

Clinton has made himself a scapegoat waiting to happen. Good times are the enemy of a country. Skirts are short. People are loose, but they will get right when harder times come. Hard times bring out the best in people. Over indulgence and being fat are not good for us in the long term.

blooper: moonshine will make any sane person twist and drop.

skinny: the bronfman family, was taught such matters, by the Kennedy family.
Take Care

From Cory Hamasaki' DC WR: http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP87.HTM

What's really going on?
The FAA won't make September 1998, Ray Long was telling a joke.
The Feds won't make March 1999, koshecan, gore, what kidders you are.
The SIA Street test was a failure, the news blackout is the first
clue... the whispers from insiders in NY is the second, ...check back
through the old DC Y2K WRPs, the superprogrammer's grapevine hasn't
missed yet. Read Dilbert, geek to geek, speak in the code of the geeks,
what's really going on? The NYSE is about to take a hit in the machine
check handler and HIR will be UNsuccessful. The message is, "HIR
FAILED, SYSTEM ENTERING WAIT STATE."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
For those that don't know, Cory, who is a system designer/programmer works on government systems. He KNOWS his stuff!!!
Cory is not known to BS. Pay close attention. It WILL be very rough.

You socialists should know Mr B. ain't into likker no mo he a movie srar
Also, conservatives have no problem holding OUR liquor.

Well that settles that then....... Them kennedys are Socialist...Shouldn't be teaching Canadians.......wondered what went wrong uo there.

blooper :Yes, but, can your conservative's drink their liquor?
Take Care

EJ,
There will be no hyperinflation! Get ready for deflation.

I'm tired of GURUS. You guys don't know jack doo doo. I believe it when I see it, until then, stick that crtstal ball in rectal defilade.

USA:
+ Owns the means of production for the information age
+ All major hardware and software corporations are based in the US
+ Flexible, adaptable and resiliant political and economic system
+ Owns the world's reserve currency, the standard of all other currencies ( until the euro is accepted )
+ Growing GDP
- Heavily indebted to the rest of the world
- Extreme inequalities of wealth
- Low savings rate
- Dominance dependent on costly projection of military power worldwide
- Dependent on inexpensive foreign-owned oil resourses
- Heavy political requirement for expensive social services programs

Summary: Other nations are more dependent on the US economy than the US is on any other single nation's economy. A nimble supertanker.

Risks: If GDP shrinks, rate of asset creation exceeds rate of debt creation. Short term, interest rates increase. Long term, bankrupcy.

Asia:
- Does not own the means of production for the information age
- No major hardware and software corporations are based in Asia
- Inflexible, unadaptable and fragile political and economic system
- Currencies vulnerable to short-term speculation
- Shrinking GDP
+- High savings rates and little foreign debt, but high internal debt
+ Limited inequalities of wealth
- Self-defense dependent on expensive military investment
- Dependent on inexpensive foreign-owned oil resourses
+- Limited political requirement for expensive social services programs, but dependent on full employment by means of economically unsound fiscal policy

Summary: Dependency on exports for revenue combined with growing competion among Asian nations while the rate of worldwide demand shrinks has set Asia up to fail. A wounded whale stuck in swimming pool.

Risks: Hurts self, others.

Europe:
- Does not own the means of production for the information age
- No major hardware and software corporations are based in Asia
- Inflexible, unadaptable and fragile political and economic system
- Currencies vulnerable to short-term speculation
+- Moderate savings rates and little foreign debt, but high internal debt
+ Limited inequalities of wealth
- Self-defense dependent on expensive military investment
- Dependent on inexpensive foreign-owned oil resourses
+- Limited political requirement for expensive social services programs, but depenent on full employment by means of economically unsound fiscal policy

Summary: Sullen tribes squished together by the promise of economic rewards for cooperation. Strong attachment to the past. A museum.

Risks: Remove the promise of rewards, and you remove the motive for cooportation. Old wounds open where the past is held at a premium.

-EJ

Dr John Coleman's book on The Committee of 300 said some just horrible stuff about the Bronfman family.

In a Gold related matter, the book also said the price of Gold was influenced by the opium trade, as certain opium producers in the Orient demanded Gold as payment. The book also said this is why so much Gold moves through Hong Kong and Dubai.

Lotsa fun...enjoyed the chat.....wife who is far too young becons my call.....Probably wants to beg forgivness for my dented car,
Got an ugly on,,,,,, shall remove from her possession many air miles.
nite

I also Enjoyed the chat.
Take Care

When it goes, it goes worldwide. Supertankers and tugboats and titanics.

Yes...one last comment.
You hold socialist liquor by the ears.

Interesting read, thanks for the thoughts. One possible correction - I think Japan does make plenty of information based hardware. They export just about everything that goes into anything computer-wise. Example: A well know printer manufacturer in the states ( I won't say who ) simple purchased laser engines from the Japanesse and built circuits to drive them. Even that wasn't profitable in the past few years and they've since folded. America might have the inventive genius, but ( and I don't mean to stereotype ) , the Japanesse excel at execution.

Have a good one. Go easy on the bumper car girl. Life is beautiful!!!

Only kind I can tolerate.