Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:01 - ID#207145)
The Bronfmans and the Kennedys probably will have to answer the charges when the book is opened. Ouch!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:04 - ID#287114)
Gianni Dioro
Yes...True....just went and found my book the Bronfman Dynasty...By Peter C Newman.
Will Review it and make further comments later, I believe this is the book that turned me agaist the Seagrams empire. But it may be another, check it out later.
Wife who is far too young getting ugly.....nite

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:04 - ID#45173)
V and defaltion/inflation
If you have a lot of money on hand and believe more is coming, then you will spend it. If there's less business going on, there will be more unemployment, so you are less likely to spend. If, however, you believe the buying power of your money is decreasing, you will spend it before it loses more value even if you don't know where you will get more. What might be happening then to make you believe that your money is losing value? There will be plenty of cash around, at least for a while. Imports of all kinds will become rare, including oil, and things made with oil. Except at high prices. Later, when more businesses fail and the cash runs out, we will have deflation. Most deflations are preceeded by inflations.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:09 - ID#207145)
Why will oil become expensive?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:13 - ID#207145)
Of course inflation
Inflation would make oil high priced.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:16 - ID#207145)
The US$ will begin to lose value
All imports will cost more.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:16 - ID#384350)
Hong Kong's Gold Market
From Dr John Coleman's book ( 1992 ) on The Committee of 300:

"Britain has been involved in the China opium trade for over two centuries. No one is going to be so foolish as to rock the boat when millions upon millions of dollars flow into the bank accounts of the British oligarchists and more gold is traded on the Hong Kong gold market than the combined total traded in London and New York."

"I discovered that Trade Development Bank, then run by Edmund Safra, key man in the gold for opium trade, was supplying tons of gold to the Hong Kong market via Trade Development Bank. Before going to Switzerland, I went to Pretoria, South Africa, where I talked with Dr. Chris Stals, at that time the deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank which controls all bulk dealings in South African-produced gold. After several discussions over a period of a week, I was told that the bank could not supply me with the ten tons of gold that I was authorized to buy on behalf of clients I was supposed to be representing. My friends in the right places knew how to produce the documentation which passed without question. The Reserve Bank referred me to a Swiss company whom I cannot name, because it would blow cover. I was also given the address of Trade Development Bank in Geneva."
I may have been mistaken with Dubai.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:23 - ID#207145)
I have lost so much money on Gold and Oil
It would be gratifying to make some of it back. These losses were because i like natural resourses. I allowed myself to fall in love with investments. I knew better. I was weak. how darn stupid can ya get?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:25 - ID#207145)
Of Course I am in 100% cash now
From now on, the trend is my friend.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:26 - ID#45173)
Envy and blooper
America invents and creates the technology that others license. The first is a high margin, high barrier to entry industry, the latter a low margin, low barrier to entry industry.

The US a Titanic? Yup, with a floppy self-healing skin. It's the big, goofy, rope-a-dope nation. Look at the way the US is handling Y2K compared to Europe and Asia. Look at the problem. Fix it.

There is beauty and power in cultural and economic conformity, ala Asia and Europe, but there's refined brutality in a nation in non-conformists. The most brilliant minds of Europe and Asia escaped the cultural prisons of their homelands to find peace and freedom in America where they have invented the 21st century. That's why the world likes American movies. They're distant echoes of symbols brought from Europe and Asia played back loud and irreverant. America is just Europe and Asia and everywhere else, but with the baggage left at the airport.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:27 - ID#207145)
But I must admit
I hope the next trend is Oil, and Gold!!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:31 - ID#207145)
American movies
Are artistic trash, devoid of embodiment, and filled with violence and sex, like we just discovered it, but don't understand it. We pollute the world in this manner.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:32 - ID#207145)
The torpedos have been sent
And our Titanic will sink last. There's not much comfort there.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:38 - ID#338111)
Part of the problem is trying to guess what people will do with their money? It's a hard call. If they fear a slowdown - will not this mean ( price ) deflation?

I feel that as long as paper money increases, inflation is inevitable. Unless people save money and never spend it - ever. According to the Fed - two thirds of US dollars circulate outside the US. Eventually the US foreign debt and dollars will come home to the states. That will be inflationary.

Blooper - I wish I could say your love of natural resources will reward you one day. I'm hoping for a payback on gold. Just worried I will be an old man before I see it!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:41 - ID#207145)
Hopefully Hollywood
Won't dumb down the rest of the world the way it has the USA. Between these movies and the print and TV media, America is as sorry as it has ever been. Children of the boob tube. Simpsons SouthPark, Bevis and Buthead. You gotta believe our Arab friends overseas believe Allah has forsaken us. Imagine how they view with horror our Sodem, and Gomorrah.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:44 - ID#207145)
We are all rich
Soon we will be poorer. Sodom and Gammorah won't hold the same alure.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:47 - ID#207145)
Clk tech
Like I said, the trend is my friend. Be it gold or small company stocks. I need to make back some of what I lost. Ouch!.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:49 - ID#219363)
Ick. See'n 0-4% loses with a few ( two I think ) gainers. Woowoo, maybe my puts will pay off some day soon, hehehe.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:51 - ID#219363)
You are playing the trend! CASH! It's going up every day!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:55 - ID#338111)
Bloop -
I think cash US dollars is looking very safe at present. Unless a spend-thrift madness gets the american public, you can't lose.

What about some physical gold? Think it will go lower? ( in US terms )

Are you in the states?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 00:58 - ID#219363)
I think if the market were to free-fall a little bit, and some consumers lost a bunch of money, you'd probably see a slow down in spending.

Btw, why has it been so quiet here today ? None of the usual suspects.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:02 - ID#255151)
Asian Markets Falling Fast

Look at the Hang Seng plunging right through 7000.^HSI&d=1d

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:02 - ID#24135)
Groucho analyzes the market ..
.. Why would I wanna buy a stock that somebody else
wants to sell ??

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:04 - ID#219363)
Bargain Hunting
So, what can you get right now for pennies on the dollar -

Oil and oil stocks, Precious metals and their stocks, Yen, any asian stocks, mexico, canada, anything those countries are selling, hmm. What else is cheap now ? Debt, that's cheap right now, but wasn't exactly what I was thinking of. Hmm.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:06 - ID#255151)
Asian Markets

Near real time updates

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:07 - ID#338111)
Howdy Envy
I think you're right - Lose some money on the SM and you slow down your spending. I think things will be slow for a while. I think debt servicability is the big threat to the system. As asia defaults, Japan sucks money out of world economy, you'll see a scramble for dollars then - to pay debts. With all due respect to gold, and I do have a bit of the stuff myself, I agree that US dollars is still looking a lot stronger.

Yes the board seems quiet. Maybe lurkers. In reference to the market - Aussie all ords down 32 points.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:08 - ID#207145)
Debt of the Government
Isn't cheap. Bonds have had a good run. Probably will into late August. But the good has been gotten.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:11 - ID#207145)
You don't have to know what will happen
Just look closely at what is happening. The market provides enough info.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:12 - ID#255151)
Groucho As President of Freedonia

From Duck Soup ( 1933 )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:13 - ID#207145)
Happy making 5 %
Keeping my powder dry. Looking to see "the whites of their eyes".

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:18 - ID#207145)
Clk Tech
Yes, thank God I am in the States.. I will remain in money market in my mutual fund. I'm makin 5 % and can move quickly wherever I want. I will have to see a bonified trend to leave cash reserves. I love no stock.

PH in LA
(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:21 - ID#225408)
ANOTHER post from Friend of ...
Interesting comments from Friend of ANOTHER have been posted at the USAGold site.

They don't seem at all ready to throw in the towel yet.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:24 - ID#284255)
Blow me down and over - murmurings from the sea...
I am a member of Candace's Y2k email group.

Over the last 24hrs I must have received 20 to 40 emails concerning
Gold and silver.

Seems like everyone who is concerned re Y2k will be stocking up somewhat.

A little bit of gold and a little bit of silver.
And if you're rich - well not a little but a lot.

I am starting to notice a groundswell of comments re PM's and Y2k.

Buy cheap and cheaper before you miss the boat.
This wave could be a doozy.

Here's a sample of the PM emails from Candace's group:
I am not an experienced metals miner/dealer/writer like Ole49er is, so you can
take this from someone who had to do the research from square one.

Every honest hard money writer I have ever subscribed to/read/ heard speak
says the best buys in US coins on silver have generally been on 90% 'junk'
American silver coin, OCCASIONALLY on 40% clad American coins.

The only folks who push silver Eagles or Maple Leafs advertise in the back of
Parade ( that's not a compliment ) .

You can't get anywhere near the price savings on premium over spot silver
price on .999 ingots, unless you go up to the 1000 ounce area ( difficult to
spend readily ) .

If you buy the American coins, even if silver fell to ZERO you still have the
face value of the coin to protect some of your investment.

Does .999 silver have any uses? Why yes, it works quite well in my colloidal
silver generator...

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:26 - ID#384350)
My earlier post is corrected below with Jupiter instead of Saturn

Date: Mon Aug 10 1998 20:51
Gianni Dioro__A ( Puetz, Feel Gravity Pull ) ID#384350:
Personally, I think in the next several days the dow will find support somewhere below recent low and 8000 where it would begin a feeble counter rally.

A crash might occur in the 2nd week of September when the Earth aligns with JUPITER.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:26 - ID#338111)
Live in the states - Lucky you. Yes I'd much rather be earning US dollars now. The Aussie just keeps devaluaing and our government costs 36% of GDP just to keep itself in business! Oz good place to live though.

Like to work in states for a while, then buy AUD and gold.

What's this "keep your powder dry" In reference to cash?


(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:29 - ID#252150)
Presidential Golfers@There has'nt been a decent one since Kennedy.
Before him, Ike was very good. Got down to a 10 handicap & had a couple of holes in one. Kennedy was the best. Had a great swing & even though he did'nt play much because of his back, he had a single digit handicap.
Nixon was pathetic & could barely hit the golf ball out of his shadow.
Ford hits more spectators than fairways. Bush swings like a rusty gate.
Clinton's swing looks spastic & even though he plays a lot he can't break 90.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:33 - ID#252150)
EJ@Great posts tonight. Thought provoking & full of CDF
CDF=common dog fuc*ing sense.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:33 - ID#207145)
Clk tech
I am partial to Aussies, and Australia. Prettiest girls, great seafood, beer. When I was in Vietnam I counted the days to Australia and some round eye girls. They changed the rules and allowed us to come come. My round eyed girl had her ANOTHER. Should have gone your way afterall. God bless Aussies.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:33 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
I own a pawn shop and buy every junk "minted 1964 or older coin i can get.
Lately have been overrun with requests for silver and or gold u.s. minted
coins. And no coins have been in my door past 4-6 months. One thing to
remember if y2k will result in the things we fear might come to past martial
law is sure to be declared. Under such a move the government requires that all
"precious metals ( including your gold jewerly MUST be turned to banks or other
locations for return to the treasury-reserve. This step after your accounts
are frozen until the issue of new multi-colored notes. ( How long? ) After you
turn in all metals except minted coin currency, ( .9999 pure coins and bars are
in the eyes of the goverment only considered bullion....and by martial law
required to be turned over..anyone know what happens if you are caught
hoarding? Pure coins are considered "art coins" and bars are simply bullion.
Both subject to seizure..... ) To stay within the law, buy coins minted 1964
and back, dimes,quarters half's, old silver dollars to be safe. 3 to 1 or 4
to1 face value is a fair price unless "mint condition". Mint condition does
not add to the value we as a whole require for hard money.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:36 - ID#284255)
Email chatter>
If you think that just because silver and gold
are cheap by historical standards they are easy to come by, you're in for a
rude awakening. Most coin dealers can take up to several weeks to fill an
order, sometimes longer. The premium on the coins have been going up too. Why,
if metals are cheap? Because enough folks are waking up that the relatively
tight coin supply is being squeezed. When Joe 24-Pack gets it together, you'll
wait months, if you can still get 'em.

I must point out something that Thomas said, that has general currency, but is
not the case.

After you turn in all metals except minted coin currency, ( .9999 pure coins and bars are in the eyes of the goverment only considered bullion....

One of the grandfather's of the hard money movement in the United States is
Franklin Sanders, a metals dealer from Tennessee. He did an exhaustive study
of US law as relates to precious metals. The conclusions:

1. By law, American Eagles are 'numismatic,' not bullion.
2. By law, American Eagle coinage is 'cash.'
3. There is not and has never been a regulation which stated coins with a 15%
premium over spot were to be considered collectable; it was a proposed reg
never adopted.

For more info, go to Franklin's site at

As we all know, America 1998 is not America 1933. If anyone comes to my
neighborhood looking to collect guns or gold, they are not going to be met by
the Rotarian Welcome Committee. I'd wager your neighborhood is the same...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:38 - ID#284255)
Some of them are good
Excellent post!
And martial law is exactly what's coming.
That is why knowing how to chemically change the form of gold or silver
or keep it in its RAW, FRESH FROM THE STREAM STATE is so damned important!

Thanks for your fact filled post.

May I add one footnote:
In 32, the time of the last confiscation:
Folks were paid FACE VALUE only for all confiscated coins, foreign and domestic
gold/silver, and now we have platinum coinage for the first time in history.
Why else do folks think Uncle Sam put a ridiculously low dollar amount on
each coin as follows:
1 ounce gold coin $50. demonination= current gold value: $289.
1/2oz gold coin $25 denomination $144.50
1/4 oz gold coin $10 denomination $ 72.25
1/10 oz gold coin $5 denomination $ 36.12

and each silver
1 ounce silver coin $1.00 denomination = current silver value is $5.25

In the 30's...
the gov't had a protocol
where the Bank Manager
along with a regional IRS official
met you at the bank, and confiscated your gold and paid you FACE VALUE
Back then,
one ounce gold was $20 denomination, and gold value was officially $20.67 oz.
Then after you were paid:
two things happened:
1 ) the price of gold was officially re-valued promptly to $35 an oz...
and immediate devaluation of the US$ currency you were just paid off in
of in excess of 69.38% Now how's that for a WEAK US DOLLAR?
2 ) the gov't can keep all gold COINS prior to 1932 date
regardless of country of origin.

Just the facts folks, historically verifiable facts!

except now...
the face amount is of the new US$50 ( no inflation eh??? ) for a 1 oz coin
the official US legislated price of US gold is now $42
and the intrinsic value of gold is $289 per 1 oz coin.

Can anyone GUESS
besides this tell-it-like-it-is-pawnbroker what's coming at us in
508 days???

Thanks again, Thomas.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:45 - ID#252150)
The Bronfmans@Our corrupt Revenue Canada, probably in league with a
cabinet minister in the Gov't allowed them to avoid paying 100s of millions of $ in taxes. There was an investigation many years after they left & it was determined that a high level bureaucrat screwed up, but as far as I know he was'nt even disciplined.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:45 - ID#338111)
Thank-you for your kind words. It is a great lifestyle here. Aussies love to spend money as well, more than they earn - year after year! Well that's how it goes...

God bless Blooper and America.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:47 - ID#219363)
God bless the aussies as well.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 01:55 - ID#207145)
Americans too live paycheck to paycheck. It will be a real shocker when layoffs come. I hate it bad. Guess we will get back to basics. I am an expert at being cheap. Love beans. What's that smell. Something die?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:07 - ID#207145)
Rolling Stones In Russia
That is where they belong. Older than I ams trying to be punk teenagers. Me don't think "Times on their side".Sympathy for the devil indeed. Red rolling stoneds.In the Evil Empire..

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:13 - ID#261155)
you wanna tell me some more about those socialists twisten three times?????^sssss^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:34 - ID#207145)
Moonshine. Actually it does everyone that way... More importantly..., I just looked at Jake Bernstein's Web site. He calls for one more leg up to this market. Also a freightening drop in October. I believe the leg starts sometime in second half of October. It will be strong. New highs and a blowoff top. He wants you to buy his newsletter, so he is vague. He is very accurate.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:34 - ID#261155)
thought not....^SSSSSSSSSS^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:36 - ID#207145)
The new top
Would be made from October thru February.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:42 - ID#207145)
Is everyone asleep here?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:45 - ID#31876)
If You Haven't Read This, Here It Is Again. Don't Miss It!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:45 - ID#207145)
Goodnight, be ye socialist, conservative, or whatever, May God bless.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:46 - ID#261155)
@when were they
awake!! ^sssss^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 02:54 - ID#261155)
nite...I ain't nuttin!! I don know nuttin, didn' see nuttin, didn' hear nuttin, and whats more important, is I don' even suspect nuttin... so I ain sayin nuttin.......if you don' mind....and if I see someone spinnin three times... I'll be sure and tell someone that knows less than me...
that it weren't nuttin...spinnin 3 times drinkin some mountain dew...
was just like drinkin a fast wine!!! ^-^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:03 - ID#153102)
Gold is political, Squirrel. How do you calculate your return on freedom ?

The status of gold and silver coin as money in America is self-evident proof that government here is not according to the Constitution. What we have for government in the USA is justified by legal fictions spun by intellectual whores that fraudently claim to be lawyers and judges. It's all make believe. It is make believe that came into creation avowedly by necessity in 1933. Likewise the governments of the world agreed in 1945 at Bretton Woods to the make believe proposition that the US greenback was as good as gold in order to get the world off its back and restore trade. It was a joint act of willing suspension of disbelief officially justified as rquired by raw necessity. An official Con according to the official definition of the public interest. To wit, a legal fiction.

Now, Walt Disney. Inc.'s world of make believe and this "system" upheld by courts using make believe legal fictions have paid "returns". But, Ponzi schemes and other frauds similarly pay returns. If they did not, they would never succeed. However, as they say, past returns are no guarantee of future performance.

Illegitimate. legal fiction government at variance with the Constitution does not serve the real public interest and events are going to confirm these words. Make believe money is likewise contrary to the real public interest. Individuals in those nations whose currency has been destroyed in the present currency crisis have already experienced this truth.

We are not in a Gold Market Bear. The peoples of the world are the objects of a co-ordinated official policy to prevent them from preserving the value of yesterday's labor, their savings, from deliberate inflation/devaluation/depreciation of what government allows them to use as money. To wit, military scrip. If I have time, I will explain how FRN's circulate in a martial venue in the US, but for now simply note the Federal Reserve is organized into regions. Like Social Security. And the Zip Code scheme. The civil venue in America is the state and the county. There are no regions in the Constitution.

Well, Squirrel, though your heart be right, your head will confound your purpose if ye be unwary of deception. POG is a deception. Gold itself is the measure of price. This Gold War is not about "virtual returns" in digital virtual reality. It is about legal status as free or slave. It is about who owns absolutely the property right in the compensation for your labor.

With every Silver Eagle you sell you might consider including a card with the Constitutional provision prohibiting a state from making anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. Unless, that is, you don't think restoring government sub Deo et sub Lege is worth the mental and economic struggle.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:10 - ID#284255)
Shek - That's what concerns me...
I have read much of Cory's writings.
You gotta love his wry sense of humor
But read between the lines on what he says
And ya gotta be concerned.

You have to be downright worried.
And taking action now to prepare for tomorrow.

Asian markets slip-sliding away.
Now the Spoos are slip-sliding away.
Looks like a bad night coming.

Seems like some/many investors are slowly getting spooked.
Many are turning away from the concept of bull runs.
They are more interested in forgoing possible profits
For the sake of safety of capital.

This is the beginings of a consciousness change.
An attitude adjustment of reality.

Once the masses realize that it's now time to sell
And try to outdo their neighbours
By selling at a higher price than them


Capitulation is lifting it's sleepy eyes
And staring vaguely about.
Soon it will raise it's paws
And extend it's claws.

The Jabberstock. Twas bullig, and the slithy brokers Did buy and gamble in the craze
All rosy were the Dow Jones stokers By market's wrath un-phazed.
``Beware the Jabberstock, my son! The cost that bites, the worth that falls!
Beware the Econ'mist's word, and shun The spurious Street o' Walls!''
He took his forecast sword in hand: Long time the Boesk'some foe he sought
Sake's liquidity, so d'vested he, And stood awhile in thought.
And as in bearish thought he stood The Jabberstock, with clothes of tweed,
Came waffling with the truth too good, And yuppied great with greed!
Chip Black! Chip Blue! And through and through the forecast blade went snicker-snack!
It bit the dirt, and with its shirt, He went rebounding back.
``And hast thou slain the Jabberstock? Come to my firm, V.P.ish boy!
O big bucks day! Moolah! Good Play!'' He bought him a Mercedes Toy.
Twas panic, and the slithy brokers Did gyre and tumble in the Crash
All flimsy were the Dow Jones stokers As mammon's wrath them bash!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:13 - ID#261155)
@ ol' mozel
what happens sir!! if you present the Treasurer of the U.S with some say silver....and say you want to pay off your protion of the national debt!!! and you would like the balance in U.S treasurer NOTES...since he isn't in the federal reserve note business what is he gonna do???
since he can't refuse to accept Au or Ag!!! right!!!! ^s^ that' is actually worth two ^s^ hee hee

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:16 - ID#386245)
I hate to say this mateys...
...but the markets are looking very crashy ( Nick's etymology ) .
Honkers is down over 4% as the coming Chinese devaluation is factored into the share prices.

All of Asia is awash in a sea of red.

There has been a huge devaluation of just about everything in this part of the world.

Wonder who will be next?? Wink,wink,nod,nod.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:20 - ID#261155)
oh my.....glad I ain' an Aussie tonight.Nick ol boyo!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:21 - ID#31876)
Colin's Updates, August 11th

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:29 - ID#255151)
sharefin @ 03:10

Where did you get that Jabberstocky poem?! Fantastic! Did you compose that? Still chuckling away!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:30 - ID#353204)
Hi all - I'm looking for a CCDN population report
does anyone have one handy? I need to get the population figures
on U.S. commemorative coins from 1935 and before in grades MS-66
and higher. Thanks.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:33 - ID#153102)
If you find the post Statuatory History of Deep Do Do, you can read about how Rubin has no oath of office to support the Constitution. And is the Treasurer of the United States located in Puerto Rico, a territory ? I thin so, as they say in Mehico. Things ain't at all what they seem in the federal money and treasury arena.

Nor is the national debt apportioned to individuals.

But I get your drift and admire the thought.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:35 - ID#261155)
you are to much....and if you are the author... I am fortunate to be dust... collecting about your wonderfull deeds...^s^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:37 - ID#284255)
Who's fiddling the spoos
Seems like some pro-active action occuring around about 3:15am
PPT getting up earlier every day???

Swing chart updated
Do we have a bottom or is this just the uptick before the big fall???
I am still not convinced.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:40 - ID#261155)
@I would be
more than appreciative....should you care to elaborate on this territory thing...where even though local law might prevail on local issues...Federal Law is Absolute and of the Original jurisdiction of the Supreme Court...on Federal Questions... ^s^....which, if a federal right is raised....the Court MUST hear it!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:45 - ID#261155)
@I don' care about
Rubin....the damn office must abide by the Constitution, whether the officer wants to or not!!! And I don' think anyone is gonna let on that the U.S Treasurer is refusing Precious Metal....And Where is the Authority that says the Gov't can deny you to pay your share of the debt...or for that matter any debt!!! if payment is refused..sir!!! I think they are obliged to cancel the debt!!!! yes sir cancel the debt!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:50 - ID#353204)
Man, gold is lookin shocky
which is why you need to keep this in mind:

*$2 - 2 days
$325 - 11/11

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:51 - ID#353204)
eB, the computer won't take my symbol thingies

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:53 - ID#284255)
Auric - Dave
T'was not I but the fair Dessee from Avid who penned that charm.

Here's some more - none are mine:

All the Fools were chattin' and havin' a bash.
Toutin' IOMG when the watchword was 'crash.'
"Buy-and-hold" was their cry "And wealthy you'll be,"
Not realizing the Fool's Bubble was adrift in the sea..............
The MF's weren't there; not one there for laughs.
They were runnin' around and lookin for rafts.
None knew it was comin' nor would be gigantic,
But the Fools were all sailin' the Dow Jones Titantic..................
They were buyin' on highs and buyin' on lows.
Buyin' and sayin' "to the moon it goes"
"Hey, Fools!" they said, "This ain't 29."
"Keep buyin' and all you Fools will be fine.".....................
And it wasn't until the parabola collapsed,
Margin calls had come in, and time had elapsed,
That the Fools said, then, they always knew,
"Stocks don't just go up, Hell! They go down too!"

Twas the day after Christmas, and all over the floor, were sellers and sellers, more and more.
"Sell 10 and sell 20" they confidently exclaimed,
"The bears win! the bears win! and the Bulls lose the game".
But as they were a dancing and rejoicing that day,
A barely noticable movement was occurring where the 'dead' bull lay.
Amid the dancing and revelry of bears on the floor
Came foot steps of someone very big to the door ( some say it was Gump ) .
At first no one heard them, but as they came closer the room began to quake.
A loud, booming voice called out, as if from nowhere,
"Come Rubin and Greenspan and Clinton and now Gore, the mighty bull is dying and lying on the floor" Then suddenly, like a bolt from the sky, the minions of SWAGRR appeared in the room.
They swarmed over the bull to revive it and the bears became filled with gloom.
"Oh No! Oh No," the bears said, "Not Again! Not again!
This cannot be happening to us again -- the bull's dead!"
But the minions kept working and worked more on the bull, did they,
And the bull began to stand proudly near the end of that day.
With horns a slashing here and there, the only thing left was an old dead bear.

T'was the night before Chrashmas
And all through Avid
Not a creature was stirring
-'cept Humble who's rabid
Junk stocks were thrown on the fire in despair
In hopes that the bulls would join them there
Doom lay prostrate
Too weak too shout
TA had blown her portfolio out
While down on the street
The crowds were a clatter
JW! Fiend!, Pray what is the matter
I sprang to my station
Quick as a flash
To find my folio
A terrible smash
The gloom on the crest
Of the new fallen stock
Did little to stop
My deepening shock
When what to my wondering eyes should appear
But a vision of the morrow
Bereft of good cheer
More rapid than rockets
Downward they went
Avid, dear Avid
What have you sent
Now Intel, now Micron
Now high yield ribald
Durables, uninsurables, uncurables, all
As mercury before
A wild blizzard does drop
I said to myself
Where does it all stop
While out of the windows
The chatters they jumped
Joining their trademates
All battered and crumpled
And then in a twinkle
I heard someone spoof
It's now almost over
We're all out of goofs
My eyes are glazed over
My dimples are sunk
My wallet's all wasted
From far too much junk
I spoke not a word
But went straight to my work
And filled all the trash bins
With ol' bullish jerks
And raising a finger
Up from it's kin
I saluted the moo-moos
As they sank down the bin
And I heard them exclaim
As they sank out of sight
Merry Chrashmas to Avids
And to all a good night!

Here's an oldie:
Date: Wed Dec 03 1997 16:21
HepMeMoney_Hmm ( Tales From The Criptic ) ID#402251:

As ANOTHER has said here, not so long ago,
The market is cornered,but by who we don't know.
It's now pretty obvious, for those who doth follow,
For the smoke screen was up, and many did swallow.
In who's currency is GOLD now so cheap?
And from what country have we not heard a peep?
All countries are selling, but no one are buying?
How can this be, unless some they are lying?
So here lies the answer, and a tale to be told,
Of the exchange of paper, for old yeller GOLD,
Never again this mystery in the history of man,
Will so few own so much, thanks to Uncle Sam.
Short lived will it be, so the scriptures they say,
In the timeline of man, a year is a day.
The rich shall be poor, and the poor shall be rich,
Isreal's Streets Of Gold in time is a stitch.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 03:53 - ID#353204)
or keep this is mind, if you don't have symbols
( up ) $2 - 2 days
$325 - 11/11

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:03 - ID#284255)
Another revisited

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:04 - ID#207145)
Hold the physical, kiss the dollat goodbye?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:04 - ID#284255)
Another revisited

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:04 - ID#386245)
I lost another gold stock today.
Bought for 12500 last week and sold today for 10500. Hurts like hell. Would hurt a lot more if they were worth 8500 next week and 4500 by October. Had a good look at the charts today and they are, to use an American expression, butt-ugly. When new lows are being hit on a whole range of shares, I get worried. Very worried. Normandy is synonymous with the Aussie gold index ( 24% ) . It is hitting new lows every day. UGLY chart.It is talking to me. It is saying "massive deflation". It is saying "Chinese devaluation". It is saying "Dow crash". Slow-motion maybe, but crash nevertheless. It is saying "Excesses must now be paid for". It is saying what the Asians have known for some time. The grim reaper cometh.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:05 - ID#207145)
The bull has 1 more leg.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:05 - ID#252391)
It's going to be interesting...
to see how this day rolls out. Down big in HK,Japan,China,Europe. Nest: the USofA?? Will the dipsters come running in after the first 100 or 200 points down. Will CNBC rally the troops, will somebody save gold from breaking through $280. What about those fundlementals in silver. Will we hold $5.25? Something tells me the metals will put in a good relative showing for themselves. Watch those gold stocks - will they break then recover??

Look out below in oil!!!

Staying tuned!!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:06 - ID#373284)
my love
everywhere....................Namaste'Ms. Angela Stern, GOD BLESS TEXAS and the USA..................uh....huh........

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:07 - ID#207145)
October surprise for buy and holders.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:07 - ID#261155)
@Dessee, wherever you
might be....for you I'll spin 4 times...and join your following, whatever they be... so I might know something....of your mysteries...
and the Mountain dew does nothing....that you cannot undo...^s^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:08 - ID#153102)
Rubin is Governor of the Fund.
The office you think is there is not there.
Peruse Title 26 for the destination of money collected for FICA to verify what I posted about the Treasurer in Puerto Rico.
If you want to donate silver or gold to the government, it will be accepted. It will be applied to the national debt if you so request. But, you will not thereby be relieved of your obligation for taxes.

There is a sharefin post about how the government might compel holders to accept face value for golden eagles. Face value would be above the official price of $42.00. When government gives you something in return for something, legally they can construe that as not a confiscation. This is a worrisome post that I think every American should take seriously and prepare for accordingly.

People who are posting about martial law coming to America are spreading disinformation. Federal district courts already take jurisdiction of your person in a martial venue today. It's sub silentio. Congress has only to pass more legislation to tighten the noose. Looking at the provisions passed after OK city should tell you our true condition.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:10 - ID#432148)
Panic time????
Asia falling apart, gold down, currencies in trouble - Sharfin, I like em short and sweet: How's this?
When in trouble, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout!
So - if we can keep our wits about us, is this buying time? PM I mean!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:14 - ID#284255)
They like to work at night???


It does not look to good at all.
Plumbing new depths.
How cheap can they go???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:15 - ID#432148)

S&P500 Sep -600
NSDQ Sep -570

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:16 - ID#353204)
Mr. Forklift, stand here with me as we view this race of two...
If you doughy-heads don't see how the people behind
Another are rolling on the ground as they post this,
you are more stoopider than I thought.

Anyone who believes this creation or takes the time
to even analyze it is lost to reason.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:19 - ID#340344)
Thank you for your 03:21. 'Tis very much, for me, like a golden tree,
with shining branches leading off in myriad directions.
I *love* Kitco.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:19 - ID#353204)
Listen to the talk start about buying time
Now children ( shaking finger ) , what did daddy Nother tell you:

Only buy when gold goes two
Up by two, two days too.
Otherwise you'll lose, you're done
Gold 325-1111.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:24 - ID#207145)
Mystical middle easterner
Doesn't give USA the time of day. Makes some sense. Hateful in a way, to the good ole USA.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:25 - ID#261155)
Allegories all..were the formulas passed down.....and just maybe....the final allegory might mean..that smoke and mirrors.... can and will...
make the need for real gold disappear!!! when the presence of a new gold can be so easily manifested for the ease and comfort, of the pampered aristocrats of we all, have clearly seen....^s^.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:26 - ID#255151)
For Grizz

Here is Bear Market Central. This guy is very bearish on stocks. Hence the name.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:27 - ID#31876)
Colin Seymour must spend many hours to sift and post. You can
see that he also scans Kitco. He is an incredible person, in
my opinion.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:27 - ID#207145)
What the heck wid the GOLD

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:29 - ID#153102)
Who dumped 500,000 Drooey at $2 ?
If you already posted on this, apologies, and please do so again.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:35 - ID#333126)
Nick@C -- Namaste' to you ... what's your opinion - re: normandy
i've been watching this aussie gold bigwig for some time. at some point, i'm gonna be tempted to go in.

have you an info on how much hedging they have done? could they be caught out if the POG started spiking up?

still got some ( not much ) powder to burn...

perhaps calls on ndy... hmm...

bottom fishing ... so seductive ... yet so dangerous ... have to beware of false bottoms.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:35 - ID#261155)
closing these peepers and yes Mozel I have Title 26...and will find that

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:39 - ID#153102)
You have a nostalgic affection for a country that no longer exists and has not for some time, except in the fantasies of citizens who never read law. Our government has been restructured ( a.k.a. Reconstructed ) under our noses.

I see the alliance of the holders of black and yellow gold if noone other does not. And Euro is no figment.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:42 - ID#248170)
Turkey ISE National-100 ^XU100 7:42AM 3352.63 -362.97 -9.77% N/A
Sayonara Baby. Rasta Baby.
G o G o l d

(Tue Aug 11 1998 04:52 - ID#386245)
G'day ravenfire.
Normandy is the buy of the century.

Trouble is, next week they may be the buy of the millenium!!

Haven't looked up the %age of hedging, but seem to recall 60-70% at much higher prices. About the 3rd most profitable gold miner in the world.

They are a fantastic buy. So were shares in 1930. Even better in '31 and a real bargain in '32.

Having said all this, I am having to sit on my trigger finger. Don't know how long I'll last!?!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:03 - ID#207145)
The trend is your friend,, or your enemy.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:06 - ID#207145)
Don't buy all the Arab BS., just part of it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:10 - ID#333126)
g'day Nick@C
Having to sit on trigger finger - I know the feeling. ( as I guess, most of us do, in a sense )

I might have to sit on mine a bit longer. A few more weeks, maybe.

In the meantime, I think I'm going out tonite to watch "Dark City". Heard some good reviews from friends ...

Still waiting for those cheaper 1kg Kookaburras ... Silver shorters, listen up! You're not doing a good enough job! The fall in the A$ means that my price hasn't changed enough...

anyone know some non-cutthroat coin dealers in Sydney? ( I was quoted A$356 in Jaggard's yesterday for 1kg Au Kookaburras )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:14 - ID#207145)
Hong Kong
6769 Down 254. They gonna buy some bonds!! Holy Cow.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:22 - ID#257148)
commerce. just moving it around.....
Quoth the Ravenfire, Nevermore!

"A$356 in Jaggard's yesterday for 1kg Au Kookaburras" should be

You meant Ag, yes?
We watch this mis-type together, yes?

BTW do you wanna sell 1,000 tons? I gotta buyer.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:28 - ID#153102)
@Destruction of the Greenback
OK, you are Saudi Arabia. In a bind due to low oil prices and high dollar debt to service. You have black and yellow gold. If the dollar devalues to $30,000 per ounce against yellow gold, all your dollarized financial problems are solved. As a bonus the three foreign floating bombing platforms in the Gulf go home.

You are Europe. You have yellow gold. Your market exceeds the market of the USA. It is potentially a fully self-sufficient marketplace except for oil. Guess who wants a stable, long term exchange arrangement swapping black gold for yellow. As a bonus every unit of reserve lost in a devaluation of yellow gold against the dollar is compensated for in your yellow gold asset.

You are China. You also have black and yellow gold. You have no intention of being colonized by the greenback empire. As a bonus the fleet protecting Taiwan goes home.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:32 - ID#256381)
Aussie Gold Stocks - And Those Markets
Nick et al. Don't forget, the Aussie Gold index bottom was 851 set in December 1997. We're not there yet, but we're getting closer. If the Dow tanks today ( everything else has ) , and the Yen keeps falling, we might get a lot closer.

Interesting that Gold recovered in late trade in the US overnight, only to sell off again fairly big time in Asia today. But as a cursory glance at the Asian markets reveals, it is getting truly desperate there.

Latest I've got on the Yen is 147.38 to the $US. That's nearly 1 Yen more than the level at which Mr Greenspan rode to the rescue in June. Hong Kong is simply awesome and Japan is looking pretty bad again ( just over 15,400 ) . The Japanese Foreign Minister ( I think it was the Foreign Minister - don't have the details in front of me ) was in China last weekend having a tete a tete with the Chinese leadership.

He was reported to have "re-assured" the Chinese that Japan is going to straighten everything out. Wonder what the REALLY talked about.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:33 - ID#24135)
Movies R US
Once America was king of the movies .. Great directors
like J. Huston .. Great talents like O. Welles.
Went downhill after Francis Ford C.... Scorsese worth
watching .. not much else .. except the Coen brothers.
Spielberg is a pet hate of mine .. a politically
correct special effects dork .. Schindler was good
but not because of him .. R.Fiennes was there and
Liam Neeson was on a roll .. They scored the touchdowns

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:43 - ID#257148)
Let loose the dogs of war
Did you notice that Sakhalin Island is again in the news? Potential for a reprise toRusso-Japanese aggression? When you add this to sino-taiwan, sino-russo, sino-japanese posturing, we've got a situation like the end of last century in the N W Pacific Only this time the US is in retreat. That's one heck of a tinderbox. The NW Pacific There are sparks flying around the Straits of malucca, & in the south CHina sea, korea is in double jeapoardy of conflict withe the North and financial meltdown. And US eyes are on Iraq!

The NW Pacific is heading into depression, how long, do you suppose it will take some despot to figure out that the best way to stimulte the economy is to go to war? And anyone wanna bet which country will do it first?
My pick is on the country that, though notionally has nothing but a defense force, has bought/licensed/copied the latest in all weaponry and is the master of mass production.

It's just arithmetic.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:47 - ID#353204)
Diswacker, your ethnocentrism is showing again
Once America was king of the movies - Ah yes, when I was a lad,
American was king of the movies. Now, because they just wouldn't
listen to me, America is no longer king of the movies.

Q. Who in the hell wants America to be remembered as
King of the Motion Picture?

Q. Who in the hell is now king of the movies? France?
Hong Kong?

Q. You watch too many studio films. There are a lot more
good films than those of the self-indulgent Coen brothers.
Have you seen any independent films this summer?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:52 - ID#257148)
Please, what's your local time?
It's 23:00 downunder at the well at the world's end.
If you find those populations, please post, I went looking and found nothing, well lots of interesting peripheral noise but no signal.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 05:58 - ID#153102)
Hello. Ben and other dogs must be fed. War destroys economies. It doesn't cure them. There is not enough loot to justify war except on the scale of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere and Lebensraum.
There ain't that much Lebensraum in the vicinity of Chernobyl, if you get my drift.

The little warriors have the necessary cultural tradition and racial sense of superiority to start up again. They just ain't got no dog food. And, even if they feed fake dog food to the troops, black gold requires yellow and also China is not so defenceless as it was in the 1930's. It's just numbers.

No reprise in the NW Pacifac. A new chapter.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:03 - ID#284255)
Do you mean that you think the bull has one more leg.

I know not but I perceive a change in sentiment on behalf of the buyers and sellers.
This is not good for the holders???

Take a goof look at the Dow charts.
They sort of seem a bit broken.
A lot more so than late last year

Goldbug23 - Blooper
Time to start $$ averaging into the physicals????
5% allocation for each $5 gold fall.
Then start to increase allocations as it turns???

It would be nice to be well positioned by the time gold turns.
I'm still waiting patiently.
The only gold I own is my wedding ring.
But not for long.


Charts galore
Dow Transports - daily
Dow Transports - weekly
Dow Utilities - daily
Dow Utilities - weekly
Dow Industrials - daily
Dow Industrials - weekly

Dow/Gold ratio - not the recent break of the support line
Gold/$US ratio
Gold/Silver ratio + Platinium
Dow/T-Bonds ratio
XAU/Gold ratio + Johgold index
CRB/XAU ratio
Gold/ CRB ratio

Morgan Stanley Global Indice

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:05 - ID#353204)
Aurator, it is 6:00 a.m., and the cock croweth here
The pop. reports will only be found in America, the former king
of the moving picture, I'm afraid, or in the hands of non-Americans
who subscribe.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:06 - ID#185448)
Is this THE bear or is it a bear? What makes it different at least for me, is the endurance of the retracement. Not the one-day-mini-crash. Permanent micro-crashes for now already a certain period of time. European bourses have reached a point, where the dips in individual shares start to hurt. AND: Some of my Mumanddadinvestor-type friends start to worry. Sentiment was: ok, they fall now to go even higher as before. Sentiment is: How low CAN they go? And they can, as the bubble in Europe is even bigger than the Yankee-bubble. And we are closer to the lift in interest rates than the US. And we are in different stage of the economic cycle. And we are linked closer to the asian-crisis. And lots of people are still on holiday - rather thin volumes. Looks like some of the bulls could get sunburnt - sssshhh.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:09 - ID#257148)
I shall sleep easier tonight. But, as you talk of the war of Northern Agression, so the N W Asians remember all conflicts. How would an American feel if California was partitioned by Mexico? That is how the Japanese feel about Sakhalin, the Chinese feel about Taiwan, the Sumatran s feel about the Javanese and the Koreas feel about each other. Though war is expensive and impoverishing, the most important concern for political leaders is to keep the people occupied, to forget their ordeals and to blame it on others. Turn your plowshares into swords has been a time-honoured solution to trouble at home.
I sleep only a little easier, in this far off bastion of democracy, and free speach, I pray for the world..


(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:11 - ID#386245)
More on Normandy.
I am a big fan. I sold my NDY @ 1.36 on 18 june. Trailing stop loss. A month earlier they were 1.55. I have been watching every day since. I have picked up the phone on a couple of occasions, but correctly put it back down.

Don't buy a share that is going DOWN.

Read the previous line about ten times.

NDY closed today at 1.14. It may be the bottom. I won't be back in until it changes direction. I won't get the bottom. I also won't lose my ass.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:19 - ID#43349)
Remember,remember,the depths of September
Skip, are you there?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:21 - ID#386245)
Mate, gold has already turned. I bought most of mine $30-$50 cheaper.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:21 - ID#43349)
The land of the setting sun

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:23 - ID#29048)
We are watching closely, and will take appropriate steps
at the appropriate time,'

Tuesday August 11, 5:58 am Eastern Time

Japan gets more grim news on economy, yen plummets

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:24 - ID#29048)
IPE Brent crude hits fresh 10-year low

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:25 - ID#29048)
HK stocks close at five year low
on currency woes

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:25 - ID#261295)
Somebody needs to go wake Cheesehead up ...

He's gonna have a ball today .. and wear out his CAPS LOCK KEY .
Markets look dreadful!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:27 - ID#185448)
The fine arts: Todays issue: How to bribe your tax-collector
Re Turkey:
Inflation 1997: 99%
If and how much taxes are paid by companies depends on their political contacts.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:30 - ID#43349)
It's only just begun
Most major currencies are down. The Swiss are holding even.

Except the dollar. Also known as the eye of the Maelstrom.

What took years to come to a head will not end in a single day.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:31 - ID#29048)
Gold...London Fix..284.50
Asia shows gold down more than 3.00 and silver down 10 cents.

December gold at 288.70

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:33 - ID#29048)
Globex showing sharp drop in store at the open

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:35 - ID#386245)
All you goldbugs out there.
Please don't hold your coffee over the keyboard when you look at the markets this morning ( night for us ) .

When you get a chance, go to USA Gold and read Friend of Another. He will need another friend the way things are going.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:35 - ID#43349)
Let's let Cheesehead sleep in a little longer. At least until we see what the mighty DOW is going to do.

There are foreigb currencies and foreign stocks, then there is the dollar and the DOW.

Besides, I haven't seen my little mini-rally yet.

Could they have cancelled it?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:37 - ID#43349)
Sometimes.....the globex gets surprised.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:40 - ID#153102)
If you are going to lose sleep over war, you will have bags under your eyes.

I don't foresee peace breaking out. I don't foresee freedom breaking out or good government spontaneously appearing either. I just don't see a reprise in the NW Pacifac. I see mutations of Indonesia in the wake of disintegration for the foreseeable future.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:42 - ID#386245)
I have got some Aussie dollars for sale.
Will sell them for 90 cents each to Yanks ( your currency ) .

All others must pay in gold.

Such a deal.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:43 - ID#29048)
It will be interesting to see if/when the various interveners strike. Globex trading is thin and more easily manipulated so a dawn patrol by the PPT might be in order. I am surprised that the Yen has been allowed to hit 147 and not spark a response. This could be the final washout in gold foreseen by George Cole and others. It's going to be hard to focus on work today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:45 - ID#284255)
Blobex down 1300
Europe roller skating down the hill?
What could happen next???

Gold plummeting under the fiat pressure?

I just gotta be patient.
Home first.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:50 - ID#412286)
blew out of 401k mutuals yesterday didnt have a good feel. Looks like gold is in deflation mode still. This may change if Dow takes a big hit IMHO.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:51 - ID#386245)
What colour flag do you wave at a bull??

Crystal Ball
(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:51 - ID#287367)
It's funny. I'm watching Bloomberg TV. NOT A WORD about the Spoos being down 1300. Sports news, tech news, anything but about the carnage around the world stock markets!

Crystal Ball
(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:56 - ID#287367)
Put on your parachutes!
Spoos now down 1500 ! Gold down almost $4!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:57 - ID#173274)
@the scene
sharefin -- I expect gold will continue to be 'under pressure' with any fall in the yen. Right up 'till the dollar is no longer seen as the 'safe harbor' to park money. Then the gold will break from the yen and travel separately. There always has to be at least ONE place to put money to 'protect' it. Golds day will arrive! Could be sooner rather than later. You'll know the 'jig' is up when golds break from the yen occurs, OR when gold begins a real move up WITH the dollar. Should that happen, it'll show that the dollar no longer has supreme confidence bestowed upon it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:57 - ID#287312)
Could this be ???
Gold selling to cover margin ? This shouldn't last long.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 06:58 - ID#386245)
Dangit Donald!!!
I've gotta go look up the news myself.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:00 - ID#185448)
New Entry
Herewith I would like to add the Terminus "European crisis" to the dictionary of international financial&economical commentators and claim copyright for it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:02 - ID#386245)
J'burg gold getting clobbered.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:09 - ID#386245)
Donald sleeping in.

Asian stocks.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:12 - ID#333127)
If I was short gold I would cover today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:13 - ID#386245)
Grim in Japan.

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:13 - ID#259282)
Gold may get hammered...relatively speaking.
Bad blooper...bad skinny...bad 6pak. Off to save the poor and downtrodden. GO GOLD! Go BEAVERbuck!

Crystal Ball
(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:13 - ID#287367)
Spoos down 1840. They must have enlarged the limit

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:17 - ID#35571)

No rush.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:18 - ID#35571)

Till mid-September.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:21 - ID#284255)
Eldorado - faith and fortitude
Just got off the phone with a mate of mine.
He agrees emphatically with you re Yen/gold.

He currently has 100 Dec99 gold calls and 20 Jul99 silver calls
And is stoked at this sell-off.
The harder down it goes the sooner it's going to go skyward.
And he does'nt like the concept of money in the bank for what's coming.

He's rubbing his hands in glee.
Talk about optimistic.

Globex down 2150

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:22 - ID#35571)

I am of the opinion that the intervention was a matter of buying the Japanese a little time to hold their elections and cast the die.

Been there. Done that. Now they reap the fruits of their labors.

Some feel, on the other hand that it was done when the Nikkei was in danger of going below 15,000 due to BIS requirements.

We shall see.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:24 - ID#333127)
Excellent reason to cover gold or buy gold, one does not know what a gov. will do if really pressed and they sound like they are.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:25 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:25 - ID#35571)
Anyone for a test of the January low?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:26 - ID#288369)
@now if we will all join hands........
and raise our voices...and sing mightyly "Nearer my God to thee". And at the end of our praise, would you calmly move to the life raft embarking station...and check your vests to assure their cinch. May your vest bless and keep you....Now to the frigid water we must go.........go goldbugs....when the roll is called up

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Russian crisis deepens; T-Bill rates at 130%

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:30 - ID#411440)
@ all: S&P Futures now down 21.40. Have a nice day.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:34 - ID#288369)
amerika was such a great dream. and captain cliton was a poor pilot.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:35 - ID#252391)
Almost a perfect red flush
Every market that is open is or was down today except Taiwan. Something poetic about that. S&P on Globex down 2100 minutes ago. See big volumn opening, abounce then another drive down. 3% average loss seems the order of the day in Europe - so that's a about 250 Dow points. Phone circuits to brokers already busy - see one billion shares today - the end of the bull.

Earlier post I agree with that says gold will seperate from the dollar but first may rise with the dollar - if it could pull out $280 I think we could see it. Problem is the yen hasn't even hit 150 YET!!

Catch a falling knife a little at a time - right.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:39 - ID#411440)
@ all: Boomberg News just had a short editorial about the
the 'DOW Theory'. They actually said that the BEAR is in! Newscasters
were looking pretty hang dog.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:41 - ID#224363)
I think the world is going to cash
A brief look at globex seems to imply that a good portion of the world is switching to cash ( in US dollars ) . I think we may see a couple of days where gold and silver act as boat anchors followed by a nice pop up as little money moves out of cash into PMs.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:42 - ID#35571)
Sailor, take warning
07:42 YEN HITS 8-YEAR LOW AT 147.63; RECOVERS TO 147.30.

On the other hand, bonds are up.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:43 - ID#36965)
Well the POG was hardly worth leaving my comfortable bed to examine. I guess it is hard come, easy go for us auricinsects. It may be ugly for us but the paper markets, I fear, are going to have bull's eyes on them all day long. I predict DOW down at least 150 today. Any dispsters out there salivating over this small blip on the screen of prosperity? Gold's day is shortly to come. Hold me up faint knees.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:49 - ID#411440)
@ all: S&P's now down 16.50. I have seen this movie before!
PPT at work again?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:50 - ID#288369)
@new lyric to an ol' melody..........tee heeeeee....
Catch a falling knife
And put it in your pocket
Hope it doesn't cut
Your nutz off.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:52 - ID#35571)
Snake eyes
The die is cast:
BOJ policy board votes by majority to keep policy unchanged.
And so it continues.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:53 - ID#210114)
Attacking the Thatcher/Reagan Agenda Part Two
While criticism of the free market agenda from the political Left is to be expected, the great irony or perhaps paradox of the neo-liberal agenda is that social dislocation has become so acute that even previously free-market advocates are questioning the continued implementation of the Thatcher/Reagan agenda. George Soros, multi-billionaire and archetypal capitalist responded to the Asian currency collapse by warning that the international fincial markets were fundamentally unstable and had the potential to destroy society. He concluded:
Markets can move in unexpected ways and become chaotic. Im afraid that the prevailing view, which is one of extending the market mechanism to all domains, has the potential of destroying society. Unless we review our concept of markets, our understanding of markets, they will collapse, becuase we are creating global markets, global financial markets, without understanding their true nature. We have this false theory that markets left to their own devices, tend towards equilibrium.

Soros is not the only respected influential pro-market individual to raise this alarm. Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan added his thoughts to the debate. Addressing a group of bankers and financial market specialists he argued, in response to the Asian crisis that
we dont really know how this new high-tech global financial system works; we do know there has been a huge msiallocation of resources; and we do know these vicious cycles will happen again, probably quite soon.

Greenspan observed that

At one point the economic systme appears stable; the next it behaves as though a dam has reached a breaking point, and water [ie, confidence] evacuates its reservoir.

He argued that

the architechture of the international finacial system will need to be thouroughly reviewed and altered as necessary to fit the needs of the new global environment.

Greenspan too warned that growing inequality had become a major threat to American society.
Others on the pro-business conservative side of politics have added their voices. U.S. Republican Senator Connie Mack recognised in 1996 that hard-working Americans are rightly full of scepticism; they feel that something is rotten. Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, New Yorks fourth largest investment bank, proclaimed:
I must confess that I am having second thoughts as to wether we have reached the promised land. The new U.S. economy was based on something like slash and burn restructuring strategies, which destroy for short-term gain the soil on which people depend for a living... If Americas corporate leader did not soon chnage course and build up manpower instead of de-skilling it, the country would lack the resources to keep up on the world market.

Political leaders too have also begun to recognise the unstable and potentially dangerous nature of the current financial system. Conservative Prime Minister John Major complained that money market transactions were at a speed and on a scale which risks running beyond the control of governments and international institutions. Italian Prime Minister Lamberto Dini, once head of the Italian Central Bank, argued that the markets should not be allowed to disrupt the the economic policies of an entire country, while Gaullist French President Jacques Chirac desribed the financial sector as the AIDS of the world economy. In Australia too, political leaders are beginning to question the continued dominance of the international markets and the neo-liberal free market agenda. John Sharp, Federal Transport Minister in the conservative Howard Government argued that there had been a blind faith in free-market forces in the implementation of policy. Former conservative Premier of Queensland, Rob Borbidge observed that such policy positions were undermining the social fabric of Australia.
Perhaps the greatest irony in this conservative criticism of globalisation under the neo-liberal free-market agenda has been the ressurection of Karl Marxs analysis on the flaws of capitalism. John Cassidy observed that:
He might have been wrong about the virtues of communism, but Karl Marxs views about capitalism are being echoed by business types who would rather be flogged than labelled as lefties.

A Wall Street investment banker interviewed by Cassidy declared:

The longer I spend on Wall Street, the more convinced I am that Marx was right... I am absolutely convinced that Marxs approach is the best way to look at capitalism.

What Cassidy is referring to, is Marxs observations on the socially destructive nature of an unbridled capitalist system. Cassidys Wall Street banker is not alone. Edward Luttack is an economist from the Centre of Strategic and International Studies; a recognised right wing think-tank. He declared that
Turbo-capitalism [is] a bad joke. What Marxists argued a hundred years ago and was then absolutely wrong, is today a reality. The capitalists are becoming richer and richer, while the working class is being impoverished. Global competition is putting people through the mill and destroying the cohesiveness of society.

From the discussion carried out in the previous chapter and in the sections presented above it is clear that the neo-liberal agenda with its inequitess distribution of wealth, its contribution to high unemployment and its unstable financial system has contributed to the growing tension and un-ease in western society. Part of this tension and unease has been vented in the form of xenophobia and the re-emergenace of far-Right wing political candidates and parties not only in Australia and the FRG but also through-out most of the western world.
This un-ease and xenophobia is underming the social fabric of the nation-state and with it its national security in two ways. History has shown that communities divided along racial lines can explode in times of economic or social upheaval. The continued conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and the ethnic slaughter in Rwanda in 1994 - 95 stand as testimony to this phenomenon. The emergance of the Right wing parties in Germany wishing to exclude Balkan and Turkish refugees and migrants and the emergance of One Nation in Australia scapegoating Asian migrants it also demonstrates the extent to which social cohesion and the security of the citizen has been undermined by economic dislocation.
The more direct threat to national security is the dissolution of the nation-state itself. As has been stated, Yugoslavia disintegrated into its constituent parts. The economic and political collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by its dissolution into its constituent states. As economic and social conditions beome more acute, different communities within a nation-state become convinced that their salvation will be provided if they break away from the remainder of their society. Harald Schurmann and Hans Peter-Martin identified the seperatist movements within not only within Canada and Italy, but also in Belgium and the Carribean.


There was a fever over the land.
Their was fear. Fear of Today, Fear of Tomorrow,
Fear of our Neighbours, and Fear of Ourselves.
Only when you understand that will you understand what Hitler meant to us,for he said to us; Lift your heads, be proud to be German.
There are devils amongst us, Jews, Gypsies, liberalists, Communists,
once these devils are destroyed, your misery will be destroyed.
It was the old, old story of the sacrificial lamb.
What of us who knew better? Who knew the words were lies and worse than lies? Why did we sit silent? Why did we go along?
Because we loved our country.........

The nation-state and the national security of the nation-state has found itself to be under threat from the growth of xenophobia and racial intolerance through social and economic dislocation. I have argued that this is primarily a result of the western worlds implementation of the neo-liberal agenda. Is then the neo-liberal agenda a threat to democracy itself? This potential threat could manifest itself in one of two ways.
As has been discussed in Chapter 4, one of the reasons for the implementation of the Marshall Plan in Europe and particularly in Western Germany was an attempt to provide a prosperous foundation for the re-establishment of democracy in the FRG and on the European continent. The U.S. policy planners of the time remembered the impact of the Great Depression and how this had undermined the establisment of democracy under the Weimar Republic. Ulrich Beck warned that this was still highly relevant. Indeed:
Only people with a home and a secure job, and therefore an assured material future, are citizens who will adopt democracy and make it a living reality. The simple truth is that without material security there is no political freedom, no democracy, and therefore a threat to everyone from new and old totalitarian regimes and ideologies.

It is interesting to note, that voter participation in those nations with voluntary voting has been steadily deteriorating in the past two decades. Meanwhile those who do vote are turning increasingly to authoritarian Right wing parties such as Le Pens National Front in France, the Republikaner Party in Australia and Pauline Hansons One Nation in Australia. It is my view that there is no coincidence in the fact that the western world has returned to the same sound finance neo-liberal global economic polices and that we are now experiencing the same political results.
The second threat to democracy is the danger of a global economic fascism developing. As has bee previously canvassed, governments of the nation-state are increasingly being called to account by the worlds financial markets. There is a clash between the democratic process based as it is on the nation-state and the capitalist global economy. The Economist noted:
The supreme difficulty of our generation... is that our achievements on the economic plane of life have outstripped our progress on the political plane to such an extent that our economics and politics are perpetually falling out of gear with each other. On the economic plane, the world has been organised into a single all embracing unit of activity. On the political plane, it has remained... partitioned. The tension between these two antithetical tendencies has been producing a series of jolts and jars and smashes in the social life of humanity.

What is disturbing about this analysis is not so much its accuracy but its timing. This was written in 1930 at the start of the Great Depression which killed democracy in Germany, brought Hitler to power, and helped unleash the Second World War.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:55 - ID#224363)
Not just bonds are up...Swiss Franc and our favourite super-human currency, the mighty US Dollar. However, so is natural gas so maybe the market needs something more to keep the ballon inflated.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:56 - ID#210114)
Thanx for that Miles. How did Adelaide Exchange compare with other places you checked?

I'll keep the money under the mattress for the time being.

Still hoping gold will lift itself.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:57 - ID#210114)
Dow to tank 100 points today.

Don't know what gold will do.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:57 - ID#431263)
This is the BIG ONE!!! As Red Foxx used to say, while holding his heart,
"'Lizbeth, I'm coming home!"

Even though I am gratified to be vindicated in my bearishness on this market, my satisfaction is tempered by the reality that the global debt implosion that we are now witnessing is going to dramatically LOWER the living standard for EVERY HOLDER OF PAPER!! There will be NO PLACE TO HIDE!! THE MARGIN CALLS will be devastating to millions and the mad rush to the exits will lead to the mangling and crushing of millions of unwary, helpless, innocent, good, hard-working sheeple!! I am deeply saddened at the suffering and pain we will soon be witnesssing, even though I, and others who have been rightly bearish and short this market will make a ton of money!! Once again, I reiterate, I TAKE NO PLEASURE IN WHAT IS TAKING PLACE!! BUT AS AN INVESTOR I OWE IT TO MY FAMILY AND TO MYSELF TO POSITION MY HARD-EARNED WEALTH IN SUCH A WAY AS TO PROSPER ON THE FOLLY OF THE MASSES!!! THIS WELL-ADVERTIZED CRASH OF PAPER ASSETS WAS INEVITABLE!! IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED WHETHER KITCO EXISTED OR NOT!! NO ONE CAN BLAME KITCO FOR WHAT IS NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE!! MY ONLY COMFORT IS THAT PERHAPS ALL OF MY RANTINGS AND RAVINGS FOR SO LONG ABOUT THE IMMINENT PLUNGE OF THIS BIG FAT DOW PIG HAS PERCHANCE SAVED SOME POOR HELPLESS SOUL WHO COULD NOT OTHERWISE HAVE ENDURED THE LOSS OF HIS SAVINGS AND WEALTH!

I would be easy for me and other roaring bears to crow about how we told you so, but the plain truth of the matter is, we DID! We sounded the alarm well inadvance so that our conscien es are CLEAN! Those who have heeded our repated warnings will save themselves and their loved ones from financial ruin! Those who have not heeded our warnings will now have to suffer the consequences of their folly! Again, I take no pleasure in this, but I also bear no responsibility and feel no guilt! THIS IS A SAD DAY FOR GOVERNMENTS AND CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD AND FOR THOSE WHO PUT THEIR TRUST IN THEM! BUT IT IS A DAY OF LIBERATION AND FREEDOM FOR THOSE WHO THINK FOR THEMSELVES AND ARE DETERMINED TO FOLLOW THE DICTATES OF REASON AND COMMON SENSE DESPITE WHAT THE MASSES ARE DOING OR WHAT THE TALKING HEADS TELL US TO DO!! I WILL POST NO FURTHER TODAY UNTIL THE CLOSE!! IT WILL BE A BLOODY MESS, TO PUT IT MILDLY!! THIS EVENT WAS THE NECESSARY CATALYST AND PRECURSOR FOR THE RISE IN GOLD WE HAVE ALL AWAITED SO PATIENTLY!! OUR DAY IS COMING!! THE DAY OF PAPER HAS ALREADY COME AND IS NOW GOING!! IT WILL BE A WONDER TO BE BEHOLD!!! Take cover in gold my friends--it ALONE will survive this crisis!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:58 - ID#35571)
If you can remain calm, cool, and collected while all those around you are losing their heads in panic, then you don't truly understand the situation.

These guys are as unflappable as a Zen rock garden:

Japan MOF head says will intervene if FX moves "disturbing"

Japan EPA slightly downgrades view on economy in Aug report

Japan's LTCB has no comment on share price plunge to new low

(Tue Aug 11 1998 07:59 - ID#35571)
No sir. You haven't seen anything yet.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:01 - ID#35571)
Prediction: The DOW will be up sharply today after a slight decline this morning.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:02 - ID#35571)
There is a sudden increase in demand. They convert it to hot air,

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:04 - ID#426220)

The venerable Oracle of Alberta shares his intellectual vision with us again. His philosophical view is unmistakable.

"We stand, as on the bow of great ship Titanic, enroute to a millennium
checkmate and secular crescendo unprecedented in human history, since
the attempted construction of the Tower of Babel. The tyranny of the
old monarchies has simply been replaced by a less visible new world
order of merchant bankers and industrialist with similar objectives but
without ethical and moral guidance systems."

One may not agree with his unique interpretation and poignant analysis of the real world, but I challenge you to refute it!

Extremely well-written - and worth the reading to appreciate a different perspective. It may be seen at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:04 - ID#35571)
The flight money is coming....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:05 - ID#210114)
Why do you think it will go up?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:07 - ID#224363)
My recollection of the natural gas heating my house is that it smells might bad. Must be why the stock market and the price of gold also stink right now.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:08 - ID#431263)
With all due respect, sir, your are full of scheiss! I feel just as sorry for anyone who follows your advice to buy the DOW today as those who followed your ill-advised advice the last several weeks to buy silver. Your neurotic need to be right on something is going to cost those who follow your advice plenty!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:08 - ID#388209)
rhody, help me understand a bit of Gold leasing Si Vu Ple !
When Au is leased for 1 year or one month, is the lease rate fixed or doesthhe tanant have to pay it back at market at end of term ?
I understand that physical has to be returned at the end, so I guess unless it's hedged at the time, the tenant will have to repay at market at the end of term as opposed to the POG on lease inception date. Is the interest also required to be paid in Au physical ? I presume the market risk is from a credit stand point with the tenant although at the rate thatb AU miners are going out of business ther's no assurance that the miners will be able to honor there forwards at least whether the POG sinks or spikes up.! Alsoif the risk is on the tenant, the default risk to the CBs must be approaching laughable levels !
Help this Grasshopper out !



Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:12 - ID#287337)
Rhody - If you want to know whether the PPT . . .
is at work, take a look at the "gap" or premium between S&P 500 Index Futures contracts and the current level of the S&P 500. These are the contracts recommended by the guy who proposed the PPT in 1989, and these were the ones the Treasury Dept. bought in 1992, 1996 and 1997.

A normal gap is between 3 - 7 points, with 4 or 5 being most common. On Oct. 27, '97 the gap got up to 36 points!

- Steve

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:12 - ID#210114)
Bitte!! Sie koennen night den wort scheiss brauchen hier an den Kitco Golt syte.

Herr Bart wirt boesse!!

Glueck und freude zu dir.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:13 - ID#388209)
All : There is PANIC SELLING in Europe after last night's debacle in the Friery Rim !
Globex Spoos approaching new expanded crash limits !




(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:16 - ID#388209)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:16 - ID#210114)
Carnage in Europe
Everything about 3% down. Except Russia, that's down about 18%. Tha't not a typo.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:17 - ID#210114)
Prediction Revision.
Dow to fall 200 points today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:20 - ID#288369)
Catch a golden coin
And put it in your pocket
Save it 'cause
All hell's broke loose.

Dow down 700 today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:20 - ID#35571)
Flight money is already pushing bonds up. The market responds to interest rate changes. Right now, overseas, just about anything that has a US$ stamped on it is lookin mighty good.

Most of the down S&P an DJIA index futures on the globex are generated by paniced overseas crowd. I presume we'll even see abit of that this morning, but we shall see how the afternoon goes.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:21 - ID#35571)
Down,down,down into a burning ring of fire.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:21 - ID#263184)
@Neutron re your 8:08
It's my understanding that the lessee pays the lease back in physical based upon the amount called for at the beginning of the lease. So, if the lease for 1 year calls for 2%, the lessee of 100 ounces has to return 102 ounces to the lessor at the end of the lease.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:23 - ID#411440)
@ neutron: As far as I have been able to ascertain, the
lease rate for the leasee is fixed at the lease rate at time of
borrowing. The physical gold borrowed must be repaid in kind
at the end of the lease period, PLUS THE LEASE RATE PAYABLE IN
GOLD. In other words, if you were to borrow 100 oz for one
month, and the lease rate was 1%, then at the end of the month,
you would need to return 101 oz of gold. The lease rate at the
end of that month might be 2%, but this would not affect the
amount you pay back.

I still thought this was a ludicrous interest rate for real money
as it did not build in any protection against defaults. The
protection turns out to be the following:

In the gold carry, the borrower, borrows gold, and then immediately
sells it and invests it in T-bills. The CBs require that these
purchased T-bills be held by the CB as collateral to thef return
of their gold plus gold interest. When the leaser settles up,
the T-bills are returned and everybody is happy. The CB has
managed to depress gold and the leaser has his short plus t-bill
interest profit.

But what if POG goes up, and USD goes down. This means T-bills
plummet. Anyone involved in the gold carry under these conditions
gets killed. Personally, I don't think this is too far off now!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:24 - ID#35571)
You may be right. However as you recall, my advice to anyone who cared to listen was to be out of the precious metals markets by thursday of last week.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:25 - ID#210114)
Thanx for that. We shall see. You're probably right, but I find it hard to believe that the Dow will be immune from big falls in Asia AND Europe.

Burning ring of fire eh?? Did you have chilly for dinner?

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:26 - ID#284255)
Russia diving fast
Down 18% in a short period of time.
Was in the black on opening I think.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:27 - ID#30116)
It's the currency..........
The Dow & company may tank today, but the real sinking will not happen until the dollar takes a solid hit and begins sinking. Until that happens, this is a just a big volatility game. The Japan thing has been going on for a long time. Why is it that it seems to be all important today? The answer is,...., because people are looking for a reason to sell and they are selling everything. Does that make sense? Then again, who said that markets have to make sense? Do emotions make sense? Emotions just are, rule them, don't be ruled by them.............

Could be a nice bottom for gold stocks somewhere nearby, huh?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:31 - ID#252391)
S&P hold 1060
Gosh are we all the way down here already. I covered a S&P short at 1050 I was foolishly holding on the breakout. Heck I'd almost be even. A little too early was I in that regard....and too early again in gold and silver . .. don't know what I can be too early for again that will be left.

Looks like the selling has settled down. Probably tea time in London. The S&P on Globex held the 1060 level which was the low on the 5th of August. Now the question is: after the real market has a chance to catch up on the downside how much of a bounce will we get. I like to think in the preverse, because that's what the market seems most eager to dish out on any occasion when you'd like an answer. I'll bet 1060 holds for the day, we bounce but close lower than half way in the range, leaving bull and bears wondering about the next step.

I think we are pretty over sold, the bonds have pulled back almost 1/2 point from their highs over night. Golden Cheese may have to wait a day or two before this bear goes for another leg down and I suspect less dramatically so - that's the preverse side of my thinking - a slow grind down and a steadying of gold vs. the dollar until a turn is made.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:32 - ID#35571)
I should also point out that if we see a rally of any kind in the DOW this week, I am by no means advising anyone to buy into it. As I have been saying all along, with the exception of a rally this week ( which remains to be seen ) the DOW is on it's way down to it's lows in September.

I have said I believe there will be a one week rally in the DOW, this week. I have not seen it yet, but this is only Tuesday morning.

I have said I believe the POG is going down to it's lows in mid-September.

I may be wrong. I often am.

I am neither afraid of being wrong or of expressing my view. The worst that can happen is that I will look like an idiot.

But I already do.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:34 - ID#288369)
@Gollum........The Idiot Company.
My friend, we are in good company. salud!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:34 - ID#35571)
I don't know if I would go so far as to say I am probably right, just that I could be.

We remember several times earlier in the year when all of the world was red, but the DOW went up.

What is different now?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:35 - ID#210114)
For the last year I have watched the gold and finacial markets intensely. What is happening to both is not filling me with joy.

This is indeed scary.

The 1930s is on my mind.

Despite the falling gold price a I am happy to be holding some. Insurance against catastrophe.


Be afraid. Be very very afraid.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:36 - ID#388209)
rhody & Lenax, Thanks !
If monthly lease rates are 1% that's not bad @ 12% annualized in POG marked to market as long as the jigger is still up & POG & USD go there way !

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:37 - ID#35571)
One other thing....
Has anyone noticed that everytime gold and the PM markets go down, someone buys heavily into silver? Unobtrusively, but it's there none the less. With gold down strongly this morning an silver pulled down overseas overnight watch the action now and tell me what you see.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:38 - ID#30116)
Scared money.......
You have to ask yourself, "Where has the scared money been running to?", and the answer has been to the U.S. markets. This is one reason for the dollars rise. When this reverses, then we are in deep doo doo. Gold, on the other hand, will look quite attractive then...

Now, why would anyone want to pull their money out of safe dollars or dollar denominated assets back in to their own depreciating currencies? Then ask yourself, what would they do with 'money' to protect it? So many questions, so few answers.

Just remember, millenium madness does not mean the end of the world, and the stock market will not disappear today inspite of people being ruled by their emotions...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:38 - ID#288186)
Gollum; I'm slightly confused by your analysis of the stock market and the PM's.
The only thing I can think of is that you're playing "opposite" day.
You say the stock market will have a strong finish to the up-side?
You say PM's won't "rock" until mid-Sept? Hmmmmmmm. Dunno about PM's
but my guess is a strong finish to the down side on the stock market.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:38 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: anybody who has taken any kind of a long position
in pms over the last two years looks like an idiot, and feels worse!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:38 - ID#210114)
What is different now is the psychology. People are starting to get scared.

Before hand there were few bears.

Now there are many more. Greenspan's warning etc etc.

People are realising that the US is not immune. Profits are falling. Growth is falling.

The panic may well set in.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Gollum -- The PPT is still there but earnings ain't. Perceptions of 'hot air' are growing.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:41 - ID#412172)
Steve in TO, Rhody, PPT from Fleckenstein
Nothing done in secret that won't be brought to light. Sharefin, thanks for the great charts this morning.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:41 - ID#431263)
What is different now? In a word--RUSSIA!! Russian debt has IMPLODED!! This will take down Europe! The Chinese devaluation will take down Latin America! And the implosion of Japanese assets will take down Canada and the US! THIS IS THE BIG ONE!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:43 - ID#35571)
I don't know that I would call the DOW finish ths afternoon strong. The market is in a bear trend and it's hard to go against that. I don't, however think that it is going to tank. Might even finish moderately up.
Even if it does, it won't last.

The precious metals are not going to turn untill this asian thing looks like it will resolve itself. That won't be soon.

Gold I can understand, but silver is acting wierd.

Let us watch this day unfold.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:43 - ID#300202)
@ Rhody
Ref-Recent Another's Comments-Updated-USA Gold-Gold Stocks to Fry.
As my A-Hole is puckering today, anyone care to analyze his recent remarks. Any validity???? Or perhaps a self serving author? Tks in advance.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:44 - ID#288369)
@"This is your captain"...........
"It's every man for himself...throw the ugly women that one ( captain points to ms. abbey cohen ) !!!!" splaaaash......

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:44 - ID#252391)
As we are on one of this boards favorite topics
I have a question... when you say the lease rate is 2 % for six months is that an annual 2% devided by 12 months times 6 months or one percent.. OR two percent for six months or an effective annual rate of 4%.

And Yes I'll vouch for Gollumn he said more than once to be out of the precious metals by last Thursday. I remember that. The silver rally was coming to an end and slicing through the inpenetrable support at $5.40 like a knife through butter . . .there's that knife thing again....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:45 - ID#233199)
DO they call you CheeseHead 'cause you hail from Wisconsin ...
...or 'cause you haven't figured out that CAPS are hard to read?


(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:46 - ID#412172)
PPT is at the bottom of the article I posted
and how about that other item, Fed believes in New Era, a contrarian sign indeed! Sheesh, and I went out of cash to buy a couple stocks I had leads on yesterday....another contrarian sign;- ) , I will be watching them like a hawk!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:49 - ID#376309)
I agree!
With the S&P down 19.00 points I've covered my short. It just seems like this is near bottom for today. We will break the lows of last week just not today.

Well I'm NOT 100% sure. I though of a quick day trade and going long here but I'm real scared of that and for good reason.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:50 - ID#35571)
I still see nothing new. Russia, China, etc. have all been going on for months.

The only thing new is that is become increasing obvious Rubin has put away his intervention shotgun.

The Japanese were given a chance to do something, warned to do it quicky, and the BOJ policy board voted to continue it's policy unchanged.

A slap in the face.

So now comes the burning ring of fire.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:50 - ID#324266)
Spock @ 07:53
Those long posts torture me, but I read 'em. The global markets, in particular curriencies, are competitive. The world's array of governments are now revealed for what they are; socialist institutions incapable of competition.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:52 - ID#288369)
@on the way to my office this morn'...........
studio will stop by da' banque and redeem a cheque for about $5000. CASH. just in case.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:57 - ID#411440)
@ Caper: re ANOTHER'S article: That article was from a 'friend
of ANOTHER'. It was my understanding that ANOTHER was discredited.
The scenario painted in the above article assumes that virtually all
paper burns, and the USD will have sunk to $US30 000 per oz.
If it looks like that is going to happen, I will have exitted gold
stocks long before, and rotated into physical. ANOTHER never gave
a time frame for his speculations. If his speculations turn out
to be accurate, I still think we shall have time to fit in a gold bull
before the financial wheels drop off! Keep in mind that I'm a goldbug,
and hence have a perfect record for being wrong.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:57 - ID#215208)
Channel update
Exciting day. A good way to start the day --- being short the DOW and waking up to see a 200 point drop!

Depending on what happens today, I see maybe one more day of pressure on the metals, then a quick turn up. Gold might get to 282-283 but I think that's it.

Silver - I closed out my longs yesterday morning, when the London closing confirmed that silver had broken thru the channel bottom. Somehow I managed to turn a great profit into a significant loss. There must be a lesson here. Hope I figure it out. I suppose a good strategy from here is to wait one more day. If silver gets down to APH's predicted 5.05 tomorrow, and everything else is at the bottoms, I probably get back in long.

Platinum - I adjusted the blue channel using the recent low as the bottom. This make the channel even steeper! It also meams that we should be at or near the channel bottom as you read this. So this morning I finally covered my platinum short and went long. Only half a load. I'll probably do the rest later today or tomorrow.

Palladium - Still hovering well below its long-term upward trend line. A good place for it to be at the moment. A jump in PA will kick-start the next PL rally. If it goes as planned, for those of you that missed it the first time, here comes Platinum II -- The Summer Ecstacy! Target: 425-430.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:59 - ID#426220)

Long-time observer-analyst on the Far-East, ORACLE of the ORIENT, paints a grim picture of the market sea-change he sees occurring in the entire investment world.

ORACLE believes "a secular change in all markets is inescapably materializing."

He asserts "the root source of the sea-change crystallizing in many parts of the world started about one year ago in the Far-East -- where stock markets, currencies and economies have been devastated -- with still no respite in sight." Furthermore, ORACLE foresees a protracted plunge in Asian equities.

"Not IF, but WHEN either the Honk Kong Dollar or the Japanese Yen finally craters, the other currency must necessarily be devalued immediately to protect its export industries."

"Although it is difficult to predict accurately which will be the first to succumb to market forces, this analyst believes the Chinese Yuan ( renminbi ) will be the first to throw in the towel. Interestingly, Beijing currency black markets concur with this view."

ORACLE shows a couple of depressingly interesting tables depicting the currency losses and market declines in all Asian countries since the ASIAN CRIS began one year ago. He translates the losses and declines into $US - which is indeed sad. Unfortunately, he foresees the second stage of the Asian Collapse looming on the horizon.

The entire report located at the following URL -- it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 08:59 - ID#35571)
You are right. It is the fear factor that will prove me wrong.

My preditcions are based on what the fund managers typically do.

They have been following interest rates and interest rate predictions pretty closely. What we are seeing now is not only lowering rates because of more flight money, it is also reomving any expectation that there is eve a remote chance the Fed will raise rates. Might even lower them. This was bullish not too long ago.

A real scare has been raised by the spector of economic recession and falling earnings reports. So now maybe interest rates ( which is short run gunslinger kind of thing ) will be replaced by economic and earnings projections ( a long run save-my-ass kind of thing ) .

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:02 - ID#233199)
Where's Part One?

swp1 ( )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:02 - ID#35571)
We idiots are legion. We will take over the world.

The bad thing is the dues cost so much.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:03 - ID#255226)
How did you cover a short SnP at 1050? The low has only been about 1067.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:07 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Good points. I guess it boils down to what fears will
outweigh the most. Let's watch this day and see how it unfolds. It's
anybody's guess how it will end...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:07 - ID#288369)
@The Order of Idiots.........
Yes, we are many. I just don't want the "smarties" to whoop our skinney arses. Salud!!!!
Got gold? Got cash?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:08 - ID#35571)
I dunno. Everything seems so paradoxical.

I am looking for a small rally in the DOW, but I am very bearish on the markets.

I am looking for a continueing decline in precious metals, but I am very bullish in the long run.

I see what is happening now as a final shakeout of trends that have persisted for years.

Gold, a final dip into September and then the great rebirth!
DOW, a final last gasp and then the great darkness...

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:09 - ID#212323)
He stands before a warm GOLDen glow...He huffs, and puffs...
Lights out! Let the party begin!

Fresh horses for ALL my men! And CAKE too!!

got candles? got gold?? :- )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:13 - ID#376309)
To - Gollum
As long as your expressing your views, views which I share 100%, how low on gold into mid Sept and how high will the Sept S&P go from now till the next wave down???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:15 - ID#335184)
ALL : Can any one recite the components of the XAU that also comprise the S&P ?
Freeport, NEM, & Home stake come to mind ! Do not be fooled by a dip in the XAU as the redemption Tsunami from S&P Index funds hits the markrt ! watch to see if other Gold Equities show substantial relative strength which would IMHIPO, be very, very mooish for GOLD !




(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:17 - ID#288369)
@team goldbug...
has practiced very hard for this game. now, let's stand and play. off to the office to pump oil and give it away. G&P to all!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:22 - ID#333126)
aurator (re: oops ... yup ... Au should be Ag)


well, anyway, nobody would mistake what i said as gospel ( especially on *this* website )

btw, I highly recommend "Dark City" to all lateral thinkers with a couple of extra hours and the price of a movie ticket to spare.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:24 - ID#335184)
The finacial Gurus at CNBC, Kathleen "THe Bright Bulb" Hays & Ron "i checked my brains in the sauna"
Insana, are soothing the herd !
They've dropped the "BUY THE DIPS" mantra & are currently humming the "BUY THE LONG BOND " prayer song in Gregorian chant!
They're moving those heffers off the feed lots & into the slaughter
pens !




(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:29 - ID#30116)
I haven't checked this out lately but....


were all in the S&P-500 index...... The XAU components have changed but you can get the index list fron look for the index stuff, you'll find it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:29 - ID#35571)
Not very much higher. 1120 tops.

As I told Aragon III last week, four bucks a week for six weeks. That would get us down to the 260's.

Since then I have begun to think it might not be that bad. Two bucks a week would just retest the January lows.

I am waiting till the conclusion of this week to revise my thinking if neccesary.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:30 - ID#335184)
rohdy @ less than 1% / mo & say 1.5 to 2% / year on AU lease rates, that's the most inverted yield
curve I've ever heard of ! WOW !



(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:33 - ID#289357)
Putting the puzzle together, LOL
Sorry Bart - couldn't resist......GO GOLD!


A bartender is sitting behind the bar on a typical day, when the door bursts open and in come four exuberant blondes. They come up to the bar, order five bottles of champagne and ten glasses, take their order over and sit down at a large table. The corks are popped, the glasses are filled and they begin toasting and chanting,

'51 days, 51 days, 51 days!'

Soon, three more blondes arrive, take up their drinks and the chanting grows.

'51 days, 51 days, 51 days'

Two more blondes show up and soon their voices are joined in raising the roof.

'51 days, 51 days, 51 days!'

Finally, the tenth blonde comes in with a picture under her arm. She walks over to the table, sets the picture in the middle and the table erupts even more loudly in chant. Up jump the others, they begin dancing around the table, exchanging high-fives, all the while chanting

'51 days, 51 days, 51 days!'

The bartender cant contain his curiosity any longer, so he walks over to the table. There in the center is a beautifully framed childs puzzle of the Cookie Monster. When the frenzy dies down a little bit, the bartender asks one of the blondes, 

'Whats all the chanting and celebration about?'

The blonde who brought in the picture pipes in,

'Everyone thinks that blondes are dumb and they make fun of us. So, we decided to set the record straight. Ten of us got together, bought that puzzle and put it together. The side of the box said 2-4 years, but we put it together in just 51 days!'

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:34 - ID#288369)
@newtron.....saddle up.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:35 - ID#317193)
In an outright currency crisis the last currency standing will be gold........
Just a matter of time. Wait to confirm a bottom? Buy now?

We watch.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:36 - ID#35571)
DOW -138
The DOW is taking it's morning dip.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:40 - ID#426220)

As stock markets worldwide plunge, the Yen AND THE US GREENBACK are tanking also.

Early this morning the Yen fell to eight year lows versus Uncle Sam's Buck - the latter also plummeting, as reflected by the US Dollar Index.
The Dollar Index is already down nearly 2% this morning - at 93. If the 93 support level is taken out, it's just a stone's throw - or rather a stone's DROP to 89 ( next support ) . CBS has a good chart of the US Dollar Index:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:42 - ID#243166)
Talk about a dip
Wait till all the Bob Beemers get on the horn to switch their 401Ks.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:43 - ID#344225)
I slept in and MISSED the opening..Were the S&P futures
down before the opening signifigantly????

As I post, the DOW is down 143. What hapened? No PPT
to the rescue this time?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:46 - ID#242325)
Vronsky: My screen has the dollar index UP this morning. Bonds surging. Gold getting smashed. This looks like the beginning of that final golden washout.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:47 - ID#208393)
Canadian Bacon - ON SALE
A restaurant in Nova Scotia will give you a full-course breakfast and $11 Cdn in change to anyone paying for the meal with a $10 US bill. The "loonie" is toast! A country that cannot control its own currency has no hope of controlling anything else.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:48 - ID#411440)
@ vrosky: please excuse my ignorance, but what is the composition

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:50 - ID#35571)
DOW -140
Starting to pull out of the dive?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:51 - ID#335184)
Chas, the GLOBULE Index was almost limit down at the open!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:52 - ID#426220)

Old Gold: What is the URL where you are seeing the US$ Index?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:55 - ID#347267)
Red, Yellow, and Black
What's this, a race? Red Market that had been leading for the whole race, fading fast, Yellow Gold, behind everything up til now, showing some small signs of life, but Black Gold ( OIL ) , was laying back but is coming on strong!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:55 - ID#316193)
December Delivery - $288.80

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:58 - ID#35571)
DOW -133
Will they get the nose up in time?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 09:59 - ID#242325)
Try this

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:01 - ID#35571)
DOW -181
The nose is definitely up, now for the afterburners.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:03 - ID#347267)
Major Oils
Look at:

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:04 - ID#24135)
Im ethnocentric ...
So ethnocentric ..
gee BIRDBRAIN .. you really know
how to hurt a guy ..

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:06 - ID#426220)
Dollar Index

Old Gold

Your website lists it as " US Dollar Index ( FINEX ) ,"
while CBS website shows it as "USLX," located at:$USLX

If I had to bet which was correct, I would say YOUR website is the right one - since all else is falling.
Thx for the clarification.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:06 - ID#35571)
DOW -182
Arrrgggghhhh, engine failure.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:08 - ID#253418)
APH - clarification
I covered my SnP short as the market was going up after the Chinese New Year, from 996 to 1050 I was short. Brillant move....

That covering was some time ago and the memory almost faded except here today the number are reappearing.

What are you doing now - let me guess - just the opposite of what emotion would dictate - like a good trader.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:08 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
Note: I can't post again until September 9th.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index continue to decline, but at a slow rate. This is a negative until it turns up with some momentum. It should turn on the early side.

The new lows on Toronto Mining Issues have increased to 25 - 35 issues per day. This is negative. Fewer than 6 issues per day for several days is an all clear signal. This is a lagging indicator.

The ratio of gold to the Worden Brothers WG580 gold index is more than two standard deviations below normal. The ratio must peak and hold for ten days to provide a buy signal. Not yet, as we hit new extremes yesterday and continue to monitor this.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:08 - ID#24135)
I did it ..
your cheesiness ..
I read your lips .. YUK .. Thats the last
time im gonna do THAT.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:14 - ID#347267)
Trading Halts
Would someone plesase post those new NYSE trading halt rules, I have lost mine. Thanks.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:15 - ID#253418)
So much for 1060 holding
So much for perdiction #1 that 1060 would hold on the S&P. Now, I hope they nail this right to the close and have the clean out bottom tomorrow at the open after Asia and Europe fall some more- that may be the time to buy gold and silver - to catch the knife!!!

YES - what do you think APH

Play those fundlementals again SAM

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:18 - ID#35571)
DOW -220
Gosh Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:18 - ID#30116)
Mtn Bear (SE)
Got about 700 more points to go on the Dow before we take a 'rest'.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:20 - ID#243166)
This sure acts like a selling climax, if we weren't a couple of weeks from record highs. Good thing Bell Atlantic is on strike.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:20 - ID#30116)
Trading halts and such.........

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:21 - ID#372228)
Bank Index
The Bank Index ( BKX ) in now down 40 points and over 200 points in the last 3 weeks ( 22% ) ...gee, I wonder if that classifies as a bear market in the banking sector???

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:23 - ID#24135)
Gold suffers ..
Because the yen is temporarily embarrassed .. and
Silver wants company as it goes down the toilet.
BUT .. The yen should recover a bit shortly .. I
dont know about silver .. that au/ag ratio is up to
54.8 !!... gotta watch that thing.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:23 - ID#347267)
The day of Bloody Butts and Guts arrived sooner than I thought. I did so want to add to my RYURX position, oh well wait for the next half ass rally. Mtn talk: Them thar yuppie fun mangers gone hav sum bluddy asses tday, un huh.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:24 - ID#30116)
NYSE rules.............

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:25 - ID#372228)
Gold Stocks
Actually the gold stocks are holding up quite well considering the sell off...but of course when you hit 0 you can't go much lower can you? Must be a good time to buy, they're giving the stocks away...some below breakup value.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:25 - ID#426220)
Gene Inger Views Land of the Setting Sun

Veteran analyst and longtime survivor of numerous Bear Markets,
the venerable Gene Inger, considers the dire developments in the Far-East as the prime motive negative force affecting Wall Street.

"we are on the throes of arguing a final
washout for the Yen, if not other currencies in Asia. We can't
proclaim that, because one more major hit is likely, presuming
Hong Kong and/or China devalue."

"First, as we saw so often in the year and a half
during which we were only occasionally bearish about the impact
of the domino series of international capitulation's impacting the
U.S. stock market ( including in '97 ) , we often saw the aftermath of
shock as drawing more money into New York. In this upcoming
new situation, it's a little different. China/Hong Kong is not
Indonesia, Malaysia or even Korea. Risks as they impact Japan,
the second largest economy, are real; competitive pricing
environments clearly risk throwing Recession into Depression,
both in Korea and maybe even in Japan."

"Once the bottom is found, a tendency to repatriate money
from New York will commence, albeit gingerly at fast, accelerating
only after Japanese and Korean businessmen ( who along with
the leadership from Hong Kong as early as before the handover
from Britain to the "almost Reds" ) have been quietly moving funds
to the United States are confident they have found bedrock."

In summary. . .in short, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets nay better!"

For full Inger full market analysis see URL below -- it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:28 - ID#243166)
Party anyone?
Anybody wanna have one of those 1000 point parties --- like when the Dow is down 1000 from its record?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:32 - ID#253418)
SWC has had stops hit under 26 - come on wash out, get on down to 24 where I want ya.

notice the metals are not following the DOW down. Could be a sign.

Awful quiet there APH what are your brewing up - can't be a sale - waiting and watching?? me too with order down below just in case we get lucky...but I think the metals aren't going to move much....tomorrow is the day for bravery

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:32 - ID#350179)
I can hear it already
"After a rough start, the DOW has staged a 40 point rally off of the mornings' lows..."

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:34 - ID#347267)
@ Panda
Thanks. Just went up and looked at my wifes Panda pendant, shore is a purty thang!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:34 - ID#288399)
Equities bear

Rhonda Roland on CNN said US selling was "orderly" and "calm". So, I guess the bear market has started. In the past, like last October, we would sell those fast sell offs and then a big bounce back. Just when the little guy gets the game down, it's already been changed on him. Fools all! Go gold.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:37 - ID#347267)
Can any of the resident xperts tell if our belov'd PPT is in there yet??

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:39 - ID#35571)
DOW -185

OK, the morning rush may be over. Now, let's see what kind of stuff those gutsy dipsters are made out of.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:40 - ID#372228)
Every single commodity is down and the CRB index is serious trouble. Doesn't look like a sunny day to the traders today does it...but the XAU is only down a couple of points...maybe it's our turn to have fun.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:45 - ID#24135)
What I did today ..
This morning I told my son that I estimated that the
sp500 would hold at 1010 to 1020 and then rally ..
He said he thought it would rally before that. We'll
see who is boss.

Then I thought I would buy some puts on Homestake
October strike 10 last trade Monday was 9/16 ...
I got distracted and didnt do it.. I believe I was
an idiot.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:47 - ID#219363)
This ain't gonna do it guys, I need about another 1000 points to move these puts I bought yesterday into-the-money. Gollum, go work your magic guy.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:48 - ID#347267)
Thanks for the correction, I like to think I'm pretty good with words, but this was one that I "assumed" I knew. Do not have a good on-line dictionary. Can you give me the origin of the word ( bellwether ) ? Know of a good site/online source for dictionary checking?

Gandalf the White
(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:51 - ID#433301)
A 8/10 evening post by ANOTHER on USAGOLD
interesting !

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:51 - ID#426220)

REF: rhody ( @ vrosky: please excuse my ignorance, but what is the composition ) :

For certain I know there are at least TWO US Dollar Indices.

Like any index, each US$ index is composed of a basket of different currencies. One index is merely several currencies which arbitrarily and supposedly represent a cross-section of world currencies. The second index is composed of a basket of several of the world's main currencies - and are weighted ON A TRADE RELATED BASIS. That is to say each currency is weighted in proportion to the country's percent trade with the US.

Therefore, it is understandable why there are dailly differences in readings of the two US Dollar Indices. It is tantamount to comparing the DOW vs the NYSE Composite Index vs NASDAQ vs the myriad indices which monitor the rise and fall of the US stocks. Nevertheless, given time they ALL go in the same direction.

Unfortunately, I do not recall off hand the exact composition of each US$ Index. Nonetheless, when I have time I will research it and get back to you.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 10:57 - ID#327123)
S.A. Gold Stocks
The ADR's for the S.A. gold stocks again are holding up extremly well considering golds movement. I believe investors holding these stocks think the risk of getting out is higher than the risk of holding tight.
Is this a good omen????
John Disney- I see that feeling I had is catching!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:02 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio
The Dow/Gold Ratio bounced off its 144 day moving average at about 10AM. It did the same in the October 27, 1997, selloff and again last week in the big drop. Sure would like to see it break through and close below the 144.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:05 - ID#426220)
Elliott Wave Analyst Predicts $3,131 GOLD

Recognized Elliott Wave Theorist forecasts zooming gold price based on his analysis: Joseph Miller says "When we do this arithmetic, we obtain a number of $2,854/oz. When we add this number to the low of Wave 4, we arrive at a gold price objective of $3,131."

Joseph Miller's EWT Report may be seen at the following website. As usual it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:05 - ID#28861)
Vengold News

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:07 - ID#35571)
DOW -173
What a sorry lot of dipsters.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:10 - ID#26793)
Mexican stocks down 5%

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:10 - ID#327123)
Every futures contract down today except pork bellies. Does that tell us anything???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:12 - ID#26793)
Brazilian stocks down 5.41%

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:12 - ID#253288)
Mr. Puetz, Please keep on!
Don't be frustrated by scorners. Rejoice, and be exceeding glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so they persecuted the PROPHETS which were before you.
Ye are the salt of the earth: but if the salt have lost his savour, wherewith shall it be salted?
Most of all, PPT need your help to push POG lower. It works every time! We also need cheaper gold coins!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:14 - ID#30116)
When there's blood in the street.....
For those of you who spurn charts, chicken guts, and tea leaves, plaease note that quite a few gold stocks are at or near their cheapest levels ever. That being said, perhaps, just perhaps, now is the time for a long term investment? We have all been through an amazing decline in the gold stocks. I have seen AEM go from 9 to 20 and back down to 3 3/4 this morning. The low for this gold stock during the last dozen or so years is around 3 5/8.

If you haven't done so, look at the economic data released today along with the revisions. Yes, Asia is a problem, BUT a little reflation may go a long way. Time will tell. Is it our time to, 'Buy the dips...'????

Gold will always be gold. PERIOD. The question is, will an inflation index note always be an inflation indexed note??? AND I also think that TIPS is a stupid name for them also. Blood in the streets is here, what are you going to do???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:19 - ID#30116)
Think about it.............


(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:19 - ID#227238)
Panda: " Blood in the streets is here, what are you going to do???" ..... Is running an option???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:24 - ID#30116)
I've been backed in to a corner.... Nothing left to do but 'shoot it out'. :- ) )

I think the real question is, where will all of this money from the tech/blue chip sector rotate in to? Hard assets such as houses? ( I was ordered by the Pharoh ( ? ) not to mention gold by name because of the recent decree not to utter the name 'gold' )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:27 - ID#348129)
BUY Dipsters, BUY BUY BUY.... Spent your every last cent and BUY.....
*** This announcement brought to you buy the Stock Analysts and Brokers of America ***

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:29 - ID#284255)
Looks like another plunge coming
Dipsters running out of stomach??

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:31 - ID#243166)
Dow record ?
All: Anyone have the record intraday high on the Dow?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:32 - ID#30116)
One percent of the largest brokerage firms discovered Y2K problems during the recent test for the Y2K bug. This, after they thought they had the problem licked...............

A GTC order to sell on December 31, 1999?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:37 - ID#30116)
Gold doing a slow climb off of the lows for today. It's not a good thing when all that you have left is hope.... BBML, I have to find another chicken to kill.... Fresh entrails are a must for 'good' decision making.. :- ) )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:38 - ID#246224)
Re: the function of the PPT
Last October was inevitable. That was when the markets would have tanked on their own. The PPT has been engaged in manipulating the markets to allow time for the Patrons of Bill and Other Power Brokers to reposition their pieces before the PPT withdraws its support and allows the markets to tank on their own.

All the top dogs have known and been preparing for this scam. They have made a way for their patrons to escape and even profit from the knowledge of when this would be allowed to fail. Think about this. If you had control of when the inevitable would occure then you would be a wealthy man or woman wouldn't you be? "We control the horizontal. We control the vertical" We are entered into the TwilightZone.

The myths and lies about this 'market' are immense. It is neither free nor a market. It is more like 'rigged' and a 'shooting gallery'. Indeed they ride it and steer it from left to right. The power is in the mass of the thing. But they can nudge it and prod it in certain directions at the appropriate times. And they know what will happen when they stop doing that as well.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:43 - ID#35571)
DOW -202
After a rough start, the DOW is up 20 off it's morning lows.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:45 - ID#35571)
The dipsters already did spend every last cent buying, that's the problem.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:47 - ID#288369)
@closed the office (just for the day........) mo' oil today.........
AaaaaaaaawwwwwkkkkkKKK! The gold-eye teradactyl is coming to a roost near you. AaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwkkkkkKK! This is not a mockingbird. SNAP! goes the limb......AAAwwwwwwwwwwwkkkkKKKK! RUN!!!! RUN!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:49 - ID#287129)
Which gold stock(s) might have highest potential with low risk?
It seems to me that if we are at or near the final bottom for gold stocks, I might as well liquidate Pegasus and roll what little is left into something with lower risk that still has potential to make up at least most of my Pegasus losses...

Does anyone have any RECOMMENDATIONS, and why??? Thanks,

(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:55 - ID#350179)
Russia temporarily halts market trading

Flash Gordon__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:55 - ID#326279)

Well, if we break our key 8400 level on a CLOSING basis and then get a rally on soggy market internals, I am going short with everything on my back. I'll either end up selling peanuts on the streets of Krasnoyarsk or I'll be buying champagne cocktails for all my mates.

Breadth is sooooooo bad really stinks.

But short term sentiment is too bearish ( contrarian ) and we are truly oh so over sold.

If we can get a rally lasting just into September 1st ( ironically ( ? ) a Tuesday which seem to be the big down days ) , then options through September and October are feasible ( CBOE October options come into existence Sept 1st ) . But I get the feeling that late August through mid September will be the *down* days if any. If there is a rally, I reckon it will be over the next week and a half.

If I am right, I will take all the credit. If wrong, blame old F*umplestiltskin or someone.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 11:59 - ID#401237)
"Rogue Brokers actvities next?"

Maybe the next shoe to drop, "strong bull market has hid activities of rogue brokers" coming up on CNBC. I am not sure of what the story is but may be of interest.

Gold seems to be holding up fairly well - but, xau is already in the crapper.

" 90% of market action down ."


(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:04 - ID#35571)
DOW up 40 off it's morning lows!!!
Does that count as a rally?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:05 - ID#348127)

Sooner or later the word will hit the airwaves that gold could be the most profitable place to stash your cash. Not until then will she shine.I would think that 2 or 3 more ugly Tuesdays would start to get em talking. I can't wait to witness the last  hour today, I am thinking selloff - what about you.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:05 - ID#288369)
@If Clitton's boys can't hold the market together.......(an impossible task).......
He will be drawn and quartered. DEAD. The story will read: The dirty sex maniac ruined our deal. We lost it all because he couldn't keep little willy in his drawers. Hang 'em!

We are now playing for keeps. next stop...soros and rogers, et al....rapists of countries. Don't get close to american embassies.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:05 - ID#401237)

I am in denial or something similar when it comes to Pegasus.

I do not understand the Chapter 11 deal.
How can their stock b worth nothing if they are in 11 if they were in 7 yes. ????

People are still trading the stock? Must be of some value if allowed to trade. Yes?


Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:08 - ID#209265)
Panda - I think you're right . . .
to quote N. Rothschild's opinion on when to buy. The greatest investors have always been contrarian. John Templeton says to always buy at the time of maximum pessimism, when everybody is talking an investment down, and its price is at extreme lows, and always sell at the point of maximum optimism, when everybody is talking the market up, and they are euphoric about how much money everyone's been making.

A saying among world-wise brokers in New York is: a bull market can't start until the last bullish writer throws in the towel and goes public with a bearish prediction, and you've seen an article in the media proclaiming the death of that investment. Likewise, you should get out of a bull market when you see the last bear throw in the towel and publish a bullish opinion, and the media is proclaiming that 'this time it's different!'

What amazes me is how the public can read wisdom like this, and *still* buy high and sell low! I remember as a young guy sitting around on a porch in 1981 listening to a bunch of older folks talking about how far behind their gold investments were. One guy described reading in the media in 1980 about all the money people who had bought at $35, $125 had made- and he was afraid of missing the boat, so he rushed out to Deak Perrera downtown & bought a bunch of coins & bars at around $700. He had even taken out a loan to get extra gold. At the time he had lost about half his money, but he was stubbornly hanging onto his gold in the hope that the miraculous rise he had witnessed ( it was miraculous to him- he had no idea what caused it ) would happen again and he'd be able to get out without a loss.

A guy who works in my lab was getting frantic about a month ago because he'd been reading about all the money people had been making in Index Funds. He was all set to 'phone TD bank and order up some units of their index funds. I managed to talk him out of it- and a good thing too, he would have lost about 10% in one month!

I tried to talk to him about the TD bank's PM fund, but he finds that a bit scary, because gold is so low. You really can't make money if you have the attitude of a sheep.

Should we be buying gold & Au mining shares now? If you're a long-term investor I would say yes, especially if you want to get bullion. If you're more of a hands-on type and want to speculate in mining shares, though, I would wait. I've noticed that there is a lag between POG rises and the response of most mining shares, especially the juniors. If you watch the POG every day, you should have a pretty clear window of time, at least a day or two, sometimes even five days, to pick up your shares, and you can put your money to more productive uses in the meantime.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:08 - ID#35571)
There you are. Where have you been the past few days? I guess you didn't get out last Thursday. Oh, well. Lot's of excitement on this ride, that's for sure.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:15 - ID#284255)
Grouped chart sets and Y2k links

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:16 - ID#424345)
VERY Interesting Post
As someone who has been following ( and sometimes heavily involved ) in the Big Trader/Another controversy I find the post last night by a "Friend of Another" at the USAGOLD site as the best synopsis of what these people have been trying to say.

It is the most interesting future economic scenario that I have read in some time ( and I have read quite a few ) .

There are caveats. These guys have a long term view. People who have tried to make money trading on this scenario ( vs buy and hold ) have lost, including myself. They have been considered a hoax by many.

However, if you have the slightest intest in gold you need to read this article.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:18 - ID#24135)
I really dont like much now ..
But Im long RSA golds .. the
Last Thing Id be in is a North American
gold. The Aussies are Ok but they
didnt have as big a currency slide
as we did. I think cash puts or rsa golds.
Skip .. there is no safety but anglogold
would be my idea of the LAST gold mining
company to go under if gold went to say 200 $/oz.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:19 - ID#424345)
Yo D.A. Where Are You??
Any comments on the total abscense of movement in the COMEX silver warehouse stockpiles?? I also wonder what you think of the post last night by "Friend of Another"...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:20 - ID#35571)
DOW -162
We just broke 8400!!! How far can 10,000 be?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:22 - ID#320202)
( Which gold stock ( s ) might have highest potential with low risk? )

....according to Claude Cormier, who writes a newsletter ( pre.met. ) out of montreal, SOUTHWESTERN GOLD ( SWG.T ) looks very promising, it is selling at huge discount of its net liquid assets,
$ 2.40 unch. today on Volume 34.900
also JORDEX ( JDX.T ) 0.40 up 0.02 today !!! volume 20.000, has no debt and 0.67 in cash per share !!

......hope that helps


Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:29 - ID#209265)
Allen - Some people have been speculating that the PPT . . .
will be used to try and let the market fall in a "controlled bear phase" so that it returns to realistic valuations, and will only intervene to abort crashes. That was the function the Fed governor who proposed it had in mind.

They aren't reckoning on a wildcard though: a president who has his back against the wall, and who knows he will be summarily turfed out if the economy tanks.

I think that we will see something unique in the annals of market manipulation: the PPT is part of the Treasury Dept., not private individuals, and I don't think it will be a matter of them holding the market up to a certain point, then letting it crash after they have investment positions in place.

I think Clinton will order the Treasury Dept. to prop up the market whatever the cost, and they will fight a pyrrhic battle right up until they are swept away by market forces.

The president is the boss of the Treasury Department, and he can order the director to do what he wants. The director can apply pressure, especially by going public with his disagreement, but the reality is that whether he goes public or not, his only recourse if he disagrees is to resign.

Is Rubin's resignation starting to seem significant? Rubin is a very smart guy who anticipates scenarios and plans ahead. I'm sure he decided to get out while everyone was happy with the market and he had a good public reputaion. He knows the bear is approaching and he doesn't want to be seen as the guy who presided over an economic collapse. He also probably didn't want to be around the Clinton administration when pressure would start to be applied to do stupid things, like try to use the PPT to reverse a bear market, which it can't do, instead of using it to abort panic-causing crashes, which it can.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:30 - ID#342376)
You'll never believe what happened to me today, I bit into an onion and realized it was a tulip!!
Here's the pinprick? Me thinks Americans will blame Japan for not supporting their yen as the cause for the markets decline, never mind the Asian Crisis in general or this fat ripe pig of a market. I wonder if Rubin will get pressure from Clinton to do a currency intervention again, not to mention the wrath of Americans as they watch their Mutual Funds go up in smoke.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:30 - ID#373284)
MR. Bill Monroe
There are many GODS..only one Mr. Bill Monroe..only one Kentucky and unto the Republic...uh huh...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:34 - ID#288369)
@we were there.....
Titanic Tuesday. clitton pricked the balloon.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:36 - ID#304282)
Woody_A I think the record is 9412 intraday.
About a thousand points away.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:39 - ID#35571)
Then there is the goblin
Haven't seen him around for a while. I wonder if all the shouting and hoopla might bring him to life?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:41 - ID#316193)
Update on Trading Halts

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:44 - ID#35571)
Sell off? I am still hoping for it close up.

Seriously though, since there are so many surprises that can happen overnight including interventions, devaluations, etc. and since there were undoubtedlty so many short positions opened this morning, wouldn't you expect a lot of thos positions to close out before the end of the day?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:44 - ID#252150)
Dumb commercials@I hate to see the yuppies lose their life savings but 1 of the
big positives of an extended bear mkt should be the end of those ridiculous, dumb Ameritrade commercials on CNBC, where a bunch of retards
laugh hysterically about all the money they made trading.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:46 - ID#304282)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:47 - ID#153102)
@Disney a.k.a. Bonecrusher
Any news of who or what dumped 500,000 Drooey at $2 ?

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:48 - ID#307155)
@vronsky - Elliot Wave
That was a nice artcile, hope it's prediction is right on.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:50 - ID#189268)
Why would you close out a short position today? The situation in Asia is starting to look like last October all over again. The pattern of them closing down and then Europe and our markets close down pass the ball back to Asian and the process repeats itself. There has been nothing down to exclude more downside action. Japan is unwilling or unable to make the "quick fix" that American pundits want. The Hong Kong currency is under enormous pressure and the markets here have to discount much weaker earnings going forwar. If the dow gets down to 7500 to 7800 you will see a sizeable bounce as value will be found until then all rallies should be sold IMHO.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:51 - ID#307155)
@sam_a 21:16 aug/10
Thx for your input on ABX short Sam. I'll have to do a little more research on it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:54 - ID#252150)
A talented young lady
Monica Lewinsky was of a musical bent
So she played the harmonica on the President
The President was distracted by affairs of State
And did'nt even notice until it was too late
Now he's accused of having sexual realations
While he was hard at work for the good of the Nation

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:54 - ID#350179)
If their gonna do it (marginal PPT)
Now is a good time.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:56 - ID#307155)
@Bart et al, removing password
How do I remove my password on the post screen? I just used another computer to post to the forum?

That is, anytime I click ADD COMMENT, My password pops up so that anyone using this termianl can post.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 12:56 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 Bill Munroe
You got that right. He's da man. Back in the late 60,s and early 70,s we ran a campground and had a Fiddlers Convention in Sept. He was there. Also Willard Watson, cousin to Doc, and I mean it was on. Wish you had been there.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:01 - ID#287312)
I think I hear
the fat lady warming up.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:02 - ID#243166)
Sell programs
Selling programs hittin' the floor now will take the Dow down to the 8320 to 30 range ( -250 ) .

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:03 - ID#35571)
Oh I quite agree, the market is going lower, much lower. I'm talking about the day traders. There's getting to be an awful lot of them around in todays markets. The internet is making it easier for the amateur.

Any REAL short is going to be in until the final demise.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:03 - ID#226307)
The phase 3 decline of the ongoing stock market crash is now in
full-force. Look for it to continue into next week -- taking the
DJIA to 7000.


Steve Puetz

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:06 - ID#304282)
It is goin to get ugly if we break our morning lows of
8351. Glad I'm short. Can't wait for the daily 3:00 sell-off.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:07 - ID#261322)
Personally, if I had any cash to my name at all right now, I'ld be buying BMG like crazy. TVX too actually. That lawsuit they're in has really taken a toll on the stock price, but the odds of it being settled against them are slim to zero. Besides Eike Batista, who owns 11% ( Approx ) of the company has sold none of his shares during this. Both stocks are so cheap right now. Good luck

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:07 - ID#246224)
Steve in To_A (Did Rubin say he would resign? Is this confirmed?)
I'm getting a bit more cynical about this. I really do not think that Clinton operates as an independent power, but as an expression of other powers. I don't see him as a pawn, but possibly as a knight or bishop in the game. Its a wicked world out there. A world in which I have no trust regarding its integrity.

I'm of the opinion that the PPT executes a strategy which is not from Clinton, but from his supporters. In the term supporters I mean his superiors, as he would not be where he is if they did not arrange it. They also are involved in using government to further their agendas. The economic powers using the political powers so to speak.

Is Rubin in fact resigning? Or is this still an unconfirmed rumor. I hadn't heard anything about that, but was away for a time and possibly missed the anouncement.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:10 - ID#348129)
Didn't Garzerelli declare the "Correction" over a week ago?
What say she today?
Hasn't she been on a roll ( not ) lately?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:17 - ID#333127)
to Puetz
Do you have a comment on gold???

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:18 - ID#304282)
Those of you who think the market is getting cheap
look at this

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:18 - ID#350179)
Umm, where's you know who?
DOW New low breached. ( Fermented lactose head )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:19 - ID#189268)
Tantalus Rex@removing password
I think if you disable cookies in the browser you are using Nestcape or IE you should not see the password show up.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:20 - ID#226307)
gold and silver
Rube: Long-term, I'm very bullish the precious metals. As our monetary
system collapses, gold and silver are the ONLY realistic choices
for investors.

Short-term, the deflationary down-trend may pull them a little lower.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:20 - ID#350194)
Sam_A - Up Up and AWAY!
Tantalux Rex - Sam_A may have a hard time replying right now. He boarded a jet about four hours ago and should be in the air for another 10!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:20 - ID#304282)
Are those PE's or the IQs of those buying them? the dow continues its collapse...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:24 - ID#304282)
Am I the only one who thinks Ron Insana is a bear?
He is always hinting at a bear market and he is the only one on cnbc that analyzes the worlds problems. I really appreciate different views. I think he is also a conservative. He mentioned the other day he was reading the Drudgereport. He seems like a great guy.

BTW the dow just set a new low for the day at 8346.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:24 - ID#284255)
Rational comments

Year 2000 Monthly Status Report for Canada

Community Preparedness - Y2Kprep

And another bug to bear...,3441,2126542,00.html

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:26 - ID#35571)
DOW -221
The sell programs are kicking in.

You know, I'm beginning to think this weeks DOW rally is not going to start today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:27 - ID#304282)
SONG OF THE DAY Tom Petty's Free Fallin

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:28 - ID#304282)
The Nasdaq needs to fall 88 points to break last week's lows

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:28 - ID#35571)
There have been some rumors ( a couple of months ago ) that Rubin was going to retire in October. I haven't seen them substantiated anywhere though.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:28 - ID#246224)
In defense of Puetz
On the technical side I think Steve is ( and all who have seen this bubble for what it is are ) right in expecting a typical, albeit extreme, market sell off ( waves, cycles, etc ) . The PPT has done a good job of moving the goal posts. This is a non-technical factor which could not be known before hand. They have forstalled the inevitable and positioned themselves to advantage. Same as back in the 1920's/30's and 1700/1800's in London. Things just don't change to much.

I do not accept the astrological portion of his analysis, but this doesn't stop me from appreciating his technical analysis.

If anything, I would like to have a better perception of these big players and their agendas. Technical stuff is all fine and well. It eventually works out. But people of big enough weight can always manipulate the markets enough to take advantage. Seriously, would anyone here do much differently? My quom is that ( me, we ) in the general public have a very naive concept of the 'way things work' in these markets. We trade at a real disadvantage compared to the market makers. They use their knowledge to advantage. These markets are not clean. They are not fair. And they are not, IMHO, to be trusted.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:28 - ID#189268)
Put Aol in there, current p/e 352+.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:29 - ID#343171)
dow tried to get over 8400, bouncing off 8400, now its dropped below that, and dropping fast, down 249pts. PPT must be doing a bunch off speed-dialing to the surrogates, esp at goldman.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:30 - ID#227238)
Studio R: Mangy RANGY up a steenth on the day. ...... Turn all them valves clockwise and shut down them wells. .... You be on a roll 'm man!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:30 - ID#243166)
How 'bout Dylan's
It Ain't Dark Yet but It's Gettin' There

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:31 - ID#304282)
This is NOT a selling climax. Look how the Volume
is tapering off.^TV.N&d=1d

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:31 - ID#384350)
Dow daily is now making 5 waves down
These 5 waves down in total will represent a larger 1st wave. In the next couple of days we should see a counter rally ABC and then the BIG ONE.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:32 - ID#410194)
Dear Puetz,

Could you please give us some more details about the following message that you sent out 8 months ago, just before both the S&P and the Dow exploded to the upside?

Any precisions on the "intoxicated bulls" being sent home, your "last call" warning about the lights being turned off ( ? ) , and the "all hell will break loose" thing that didn't happen after all.

Thanks in advance.

Date: Wed Nov 12 1997 20:33
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
A test of the Gray-Monday lows is in progress. Already, many averages have broken down below the lows from that dark and dreary Monday 2 1/2 weeks ago. For example, London's FTSE Index, Japan's Nikkei, Brazil, and the advance-decline line on the NYSE -- have all broken into new-low territory. The rest of the US averages and global averages should break into new-low territory by Monday, if not sooner. Then, all hell will break loose. Be positioned in S&P puts before then. LAST CALL: The lights are being turned off. The intoxicated bulls are being sent home to recover from a nasty hang-over. This one will be a doozy. It will make Gray-Monday look like a picnic.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:33 - ID#304282)
The long awaited 1000 point down day is not far off.
I have to go to lunch. Have a nice day.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:33 - ID#35571)
DOW -241
It looks like the DOW will close down today.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:34 - ID#304282)
One last comment. Gollum your a genus.
What tipped you off?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:34 - ID#402148)
OK, let's go over this again, when do the hedge funds start buying gold as the world.....
stock markets melt down?


(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:34 - ID#333127)
to Puetz
Thank You

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:35 - ID#343171)
most indexes are back to the middle of January, there goes this years gains!
In April I posted that a dropping equities market would not equate to a rise in gold and gold equities, even if gold went up in a crash you'd still have gold stocks crash as margin calls precipitate forced sale in an illiquid situation. Anyway sold EN ABX GGO PGU all thru April, great move!! Err but then I sort of bought some Canadian juniors... oops.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:37 - ID#392358)
Market indicators......
HEllo all:
It is often stated here that the market is an indicator of the future.
With the Klinton grand jury hearing coming up, perhaps folks thought that they should get out now and avoid the rus. Particularly because the Nixon market crash is still well within our memories, unlike the depression.
Well I can only hopehere that the doper from Hoper gets the roper.
MArkets and fiat are built on trust. P-shaw!!
Anyone care for some deep water cliff jumping?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:37 - ID#348127)

Have I ever been wrong.
DOW CLOSES @ 6300 DEC 31 98
DOW CLOSES @ 4200 SEPT 31 99
DOW CLOSES @ 3550 DEC 31 99

POG CLOSES @ 1000 DEC 31 99

Then again if the DOW misses 8252 today, that throws everything off.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:39 - ID#384350)
Contagion is Spreading wherever there is debt
Argentinian market is off: -35.470 ( -6.92% )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:41 - ID#208393)
Commodities - ALL red

Wouldn't it be nice if....
Gold had some guts and burst into the green
Gold proved that it could hold value during these days of turmoil
Today, of all days, it should show the way.
Alas, it is being severely controlled.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:42 - ID#343171)
looks like dow has support around 7750-8000, s&p500 say about 950.
I'd bet though that we finish the next two weeks to the up side and begin another downstroke as fall approaches.
Meanwhile gold maintains a downward ratchet, doesn't look worth investing in until it can breach $300 convincingly.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:43 - ID#372228)
EB and his Disney Stock
I wonder what happened to EB and his Disney stock??? I just looked at the chart and it made a perfect head and shoulders top breaking thru the neckline at 35...bye, bye, disney...down to 25 next stop...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:45 - ID#288369)
All valves have been spun fully to the clockwise.....handles thrown in the creek....and electric lines severed...we await further directive.
Gentlemen, we are shut-in. An excellent time for sipping and guitaring. G&P! to YA!! earlO.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:46 - ID#234427)
GFD (Very Interesting.....
Thoughts of Another and Friend of Another are some of the most fascinating comments and explainations I have read. We have always know that the Euro was not a friendly action to benefit the US, it makes total sense that they will break from the dollar as a basis for value, to incorporate oil into the picture is very intriguing.

Thanks for the pointer.

Go Gold!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:47 - ID#392358)
Nice going Cooljing, I'm in CAn. Jrs for long haul, no margin, 20,000 shares
HEllo Cooljing... Hoping the minings will all come right after the fecal matter hits the rotating blade device.
Concerning the DOW,... WE ARE THE BORG, RESISTANCE IS FUTILE, PREPARE TO HAVE YOUR ASSLAMINATED!! Barrowed from a fellow Kitcoite.
Nicodemus, sitting this one out, Did not get my sp puts in time: (

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:47 - ID#350179)
This caught my eye
U.S. denies violent clashes in labor strike at air bases in Turkey

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:49 - ID#343171)
the PPT is making a move, or 'buy the dips' crowd, dow down only 207! good time right now err I mean NOW to buy some call options, in and out in a day or so.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:49 - ID#426220)

tricky: Ref your comment "Those of you who think the market is getting cheap"

There is an uncannily eerie likeness between the devastation suffered by the No. 1 technology stock at the market peak in 1929 ( RCA ) and MICROSOFT today especially in light of recent market action - and what is yet to occur.

At its 1929 high RCA had a market price of $114 a share, sporting an all-time high price earnings ratio ( PER ) of 72. From RCA's 1929 high of $114 the stock price dropped for the next three years, reaching it nadir of less than $3 per share in 1932. This represented a loss from its 1929 peak of 97%.

What do you think the PER of MICROSOFT was just a couple a weeks ago?
YEP. YOU GUESSED IT! 72 times! The exact figures were:
MICROSOFT - EPS = $1.67, PRICE HIGH $120, therefore P.E.R. = 72 times

We produced a report comparing RCA in 1929 vs the current precarious situation of MICROSOFT. It's title is "RCA ( 1925-1929 ) and MICROSOFT ( 1993-1997 ) . The comparative charts of the two periods will you give you 'goose-pimples."

An interesting aside is the fact that Homestake Mining soared hundreds of
percent while RCA was burying itself.

The report is at the following URL - you must delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:53 - ID#411112)
BAD BROKERS....this should be a good laugh 7PM EST CNBC...its just a few bad brokers ...yeah sure:-)


(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:54 - ID#392358)
Hello Allen, Well PUT. Market deception / hidden agenda.
Wall street is legalised grand larceny, all that play should know this.
HAs anyone noticed an increase in theft since the governments started doing it?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:54 - ID#246224)
In criticism of Puetz
Steve is a passionate advocate of his own perspective. This tends to limit perspective. 'Could happen' becomes 'will happen' by the force of personal investment in a particular conviction. Conviction is a great motivator.

Most successful players have multiple strategies they play even if their analysis strongly points in one particular direction. APH is typical. When he has a long commitment, he also has a bale out point if things do not go his way. If he is short, he knows when to dump it.

Strong convictions by themselves do not create success. Without strong convictions one will NEVER succeed at anything. The double edged sword. Don't fall on it, use it.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:55 - ID#343171)
I hope the Can Jrs turn around too, but meanwhile the damned currency is going loonie. I too am sitting on some great plays, like mar-west, high river gold, randgold, minefinders, all looking at better than 50% losses if sold today. Nifty seeing the portfolio go from 200K to 100K ( pesos ) .
Sorry about you not getting s&p puts, but you could do a call in here and do OK, IMO
the dope from hope will get the rope, I hope on the China treason and bribery, Lewinsky is just for titillation effect, great kick in the teeth for American prestige wouldn't you say?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:55 - ID#252127)

The government will shut down the communication system, that is accept for 911 and the conforming media.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:57 - ID#343171)
Nicodemus on more thing:
I liked your "fecal matter hits the rotating blade device", I use:
shit/fan interface

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:57 - ID#384350)
In defense of Mr Puetz
Realistic, many of us would like to hear what Puetz has to say. Your endless personal attacks towards him are an attempt to censure through derision, and it is uncalled for.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:57 - ID#35571)
I looked at the charts.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 13:59 - ID#288369) when do the money houses start working the gold scene?
You know when it becomes painfully obvious that falling product prices mean lower earnings and lower earnings mean lower stock prices for everyone and their litl' honey, the Boys will actually need a SIGN of forthcoming inflation. One of the cheapest ( unit of market movement versus cost to move ) demonstrations will be evidenced by a strengthening gold market. Gold headed north "proves" that inflation is being foretold or anticipated by the market. Perhaps the stock boys will be on our side...for awhile. I do luv a little inflation. Soon they should also.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:05 - ID#392358)
Had some experience in the matter.. Lid not on blender once, the kids droped food (jello?)
in front of the fan, Tomato suace can exploded upon opening...... door lock went "SPROING!" while trying to repair it. LIfe is spring loaded, oh yes and don't forget when the infants did projectals, both ends.....
I hope gold is spring loaded....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:05 - ID#246224)
Markets lag news
The news from last year through the present situation has yet to be factored into the prices on the street. Everyone has been hoping that all would be well. As this market corrects we really are only talking about the first of a long string of bad news to be factored in to the price structure. The tide has turned and people are nervous. In the spring everyone was smiling. Not a cloud in that everloving blue sky up there. The tide has turned. We will see bad news begin to erode confidence and finally insight panics. Its been a long time coming. It should have been last October at least. But helping, invisible hands bought time, and sold it to the highest bidders. What you get for your money.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:07 - ID#288399)
Poor Ron Insane-a
Usually, the PPT et. al put on Ron's friendly face to try to turn it around at the closing, giving them an opportunity to spin the "market off its lows", "correction seems to be over" b.s. Today, Ron is tired because they dragged him on early and he's not doing his magic. Since FNN was subsumed by GE, and Ed Hart died, things just ain't the same. ( And if the yen keeps diving, will not gold keep falling? What if Russia defaults? Would that help or hurt gold -- anyone? )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:09 - ID#210235)
Who spilled the red ink?
World stock markets going down in lock-step, and commodities playing the same game. CRB at 203, Oh my!

See ya later! Hang onto your hats, friends.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:10 - ID#57232)
Currency Crunch clearly spreading to South America
All: It is very clear that the SEAsian events are duplicating themselves in South America. For now, I would expect US treasuries or even US markets to be the investment of choice for a time fairly soon ( month or so? ) , despite the current bearish 'me too' behavior of the US markets. But -- there will be the usual delayed effects of derivatives losses to sneak up on the unwary. Another Barings to fall, perhaps?
Nothing is certain in this world, except those two items always mentioned. The alternative possibility if that the US markets will crash right now. I doubt it. Regardless, when the South American crash ends and the dust settles, it will be interesting to see how many chairs are left.
I think the best sign of trouble witin the US financial system will be a precipitously dropping US dollar, or rapidly rising commodity prices. Gold and interest rates will then rise. But -- at the current time there is no indication that the US dollar is in trouble.
We live in interesting times -- how you all have ( most ) of your powder dry. I am regretting what little I have in the markets right now -- good thing spouse took my advice better than I did. She's 100% cash, and asking me why I did not sell all my equity holdings - including precious metals.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:13 - ID#343171)
Besides thet 'helping, invisible hands' there was the very visual and vocal media and brokerages saying over and over how Asia would not affect the US, how there is no where else to put your jing but in the 'market'.

( almost like the line about Eve eating an apple, the power of deception can be more than just financially costly!! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:14 - ID#288186)
Tolerant1 and chas; It seems I have found some fellow "true music" people.
I saw posts earlier of Bill "The father of B/G" and good ole fiddlin'
campgrounds. I'm a 5-stringer myself. Another reason we be brothers...

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:23 - ID#347267)
Black and Yellow
Methinks ther is somethin else in the wind. A ME retaliation strike perhaps. Black Gold majors holding ground. Yellow Gold weak but not as bad as you might expect.
Steve: Look at Kinross, the acquisitor of Amax and still on the acquiring trail. My buy order is in at 2.25 US, probably won't get it.



(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:29 - ID#376309)
WOW!! What a day. The stock market has NO bounce to it. This is very surprising to me. Where oh where are the "Buy-The-Dippers"????? I need a bounce to get short again. Oh well.

HM is still defying gravity as Gold and the XAU make new lows and HM is ... still above 10 1/2

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:33 - ID#402148)
GLENN, I had a lot of RJ REYNOLDS at 34 when a guy named.....
Ross Johson made a run at it. By the time the Robber Barrons were finished, they paid me 106.

Von Finck wants it, but someone else might end up owning it.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:35 - ID#350179)
On an other thread.
I for one am overjoyed to have just been informed that my 17 month old's low white blood-cell count was not caused by leukemia.
Nothing like a little perspective, eh? A particularly gruesome and painful procedure for the little trouper.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:36 - ID#343171)
coming upon the last hour of trading today, PPT has made all of the speed-dial calls to their allies, bounce a'comin? the boys don't want to let the masses know that we are in a bear market, ( since spring ) , and want the air let out slowly, maybe they can pull it of, say until early September ( ? )
wildcards are clintons troubles, china devaluations and a sundry list of asian defaults and lurking japanese bank collapse.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:37 - ID#219363)
There's a trader sitting on a stone step of a large marble building. He's looking at a small leaf growing out of a crack at the edge of the sidewalk, hearing the muffled sounds of pigeons taking off into the air from far above, and feeling a soft breeze against his face. His mind has been racing for days, weeks, months, for so long he can't remember where the time went. He's not thinking about his wife or his kids or his car payment. He's just sitting there, quiet, watching people move up and down the street in their cars. Somewhere there's a trader sitting on a stone step of a large marble building who is feeling weary, a man taking a break for a few moments trying to clear his mind, trying to remember what it was like to be a child. Somewhere there's a trader who has fought and toiled and worried and pushed, who today has lost a lot of money, who today feels strangely at peace with the world. Somewhere there is a trader sitting on a stone step of a large marble building who is smiling and has a tear in his eye for no particular reason at all.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:45 - ID#257148)
Mtn Bear
whether=castrated sheep, usually over 2 yrs old. Bellwether the lead sheep that the others follow, traditionally carries a bell cos sheep are shortsighted as well as stupid.

Bellwether indicator/stock the one that leads the rest.


what you fellas done to POG? is this the start of the GSD ( Great Spike Down )
No wonder I got bags under my eyes, mozel

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:47 - ID#147201)
Foxman 14:14
I never have had the musical instrument ability, but me feet used to do some hi-grade fiddling. I guess we need one more convention.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:50 - ID#347267)
My proxy for the physical is Central Fund of Canada ( CEF ) -- UP 1/16 today so far.
PPT better hurry gittin late in th day don yu know!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:53 - ID#35571)
That is tremendous good news!!! I am very happy for you. I hope that it is nothing elses very serious either. Sometimes it just takes a youngster a little while to come to normal levels.

If he/she lives a happy healthy life, it will be worth any amount of frustration in the markets.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:54 - ID#35087)
I envy your way of painting a word-picture. Well written!

MG ( We watch this old equities market tank together, yes? )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:56 - ID#288140)

Schwartznegger has a big one,
Michael J. Fox has a small one,
Madonna doesn't have one,
The POPE has one but doesn't use it,
Clinton uses his all the time,
Mickey Mouse has an unusual one,
George Burns' was hot,
Liberace NEVER used his on women,
Jerry Seinfeld is very very proud of his,
We never saw Lucy use Desi's
what is it?


I won't need to post the solution. Heh heh heh.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:57 - ID#35571)
There has been a tendency, of late, for any bounce to come in the very last hour or half hour of trading. Sometimes even after the normal close.

There has also been a strong tendency for the PM stocks to lag the metals. The metals go up the stocks just sit there. The metals go down the stocks just hang there.

For a while.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:59 - ID#401237)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 14:59 - ID#31876)
ANOTHER is Back With Comments Dated 8/11
Use your bookmark.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:07 - ID#320202)
re" another

Mr. Kosares,

Part of my replies:

From David J. Powell: If China were to devalue the yuan, what effect would it likely have on the US$$ gold price and why?

ANOTHER: Mr. Powell, In China, persons own gold for reasons that reach far from the past. They see the price of gold, in
dollar and Yaun terms, not as gold value rising or falling but as these currencies rising or falling. As such, gold is viewed as "the
stable wealth" and currencies as the "changing asset value"! Not unlike the Dow Jones stocks, always moving, so it is of the
paper currencies of today. . Much is written of how gold does not come to China, as it is "expensive" and "citizens have no
money to buy"! I say, they have money, just not your paper money, as they were taking in gold from before the birth of
currency and will do so till the end of time! In that country, China, where gold was purchased in great quantities, from before
the existence of America, this will not change if the Yuan is devalued.

What will change is the currency China uses in world trade. They have yet to "secure" the Euro against their US dollars held in
Hong Kong. They will make this trade for the benefit of their "old trading partners" that ended with the "Orient Express"! If
traders sell gold as the Yuan is devalued, I think that gold will ride this train route to Berlin, Yes?

Thank You


FromTatusko: ANOTHER, What currency, besides gold, do you view the world from. Your statement "The $6,000
valuation of gold can only be true if currency deflation destroys enough dollars to bring it down to that range. Without deflation,
the dollar will be devalued much lower than this ( higher gold price ) !"

An American perspective would appear to be "The only way the price of gold will stop at $6,000 is if the Federal Reserve is
successful at stopping inflation at that price. If not, the inflation will be much worse, and the gold price will go much higher.

You speak in terms of what currency? Euro's, Swiss Francs, or ANOTHER? What is your future outlook for the Swiss Franc
and Swiss Annuities? Will Swiss Francs continue to be the strongest currency?

Thanks. Sincerely,

Don Tatusko a.k.a. ShortSellr

ANOTHER: Mr. Tatusko, At present, I, like you, must view the world thru dollar. The "world reserve trading currency" it
remains! All persons hold dollars, be they as the "proxy" currencies of other countries, or other assets worldwide, all things find
value thru the "debt securi

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:07 - ID#350179)
Thank you very much.

Staying 100% cash. I bailed out back on the first puncture at XAU 64 lost 6.3% on that foray. I'm just observing the mayhem for now.

Take care.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:07 - ID#30116)
Mexican Peso
We have 9+ Pesos to the dollar, do I hear TEN Pesos to the dollar?????

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:08 - ID#413307)
@ all re. LEASE RATES: one month gold lease rates edged up to
0.85% from 0.80% this morning. This indicates a slight increase in
speculative shorting activity against gold, given POG dropped today

If lease rates continue up past 1% and keep rising, the bottom may be
in, provided the POG is at or below 280.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:09 - ID#174239)
Vronsky: 1929 Vs 1973 Vs 1998
The RCA vs Microsoft comparison is facinating! It would be even more interesting to see a third leading High tech company added for the 1973 bear. Perhaps IBM?

A 97% decline is probably far steeper than the modern market will allow.
There are at least three factors that exist now that I don't think existed in 1929:
1. Risk management via Derivatives and options.
2. Computers programmed to automatically buy at certain levels.
3. Middle class people with a percentage of thier pay automatically invested into the market every two weeks ( 401K ) .

I am sure somone with more economic and financial knowledge could add to this list.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:09 - ID#372262)

How about Ten Rands to the Peso.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:10 - ID#152163)
Gollum, please do us a favor

Make some enthusiastic predictions about the comming drop in the POG and Canadian Juniors!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:12 - ID#320202)
.....another cont.
.......ANOTHER: Mr. Tatusko, At present, I, like you, must view the world thru dollar. The "world reserve trading currency" it
remains! All persons hold dollars, be they as the "proxy" currencies of other countries, or other assets worldwide, all things find
value thru the "debt securities" of American citizens! It is, the ability of the, "factory worker" in Detroit, to pay the mortgage that
does make your, say "Pounds", of value in world trade. It is the way of the IMF, Yes?

I think, your "American perspective" does not see or know or understand, how the dollar is "already much inflated" worldwide.
Your Western thought is only of the "dollar price of things" at present. It is to say, "if prices do not rise, there be no currency
inflation", and "see the world competition for selling goods and services in dollars, this brings no price increase"! This results
from the current world currency system that does force the "holding of dollar debt" as reserves. A new change in this system
will release these reserves, for the spending and the buying! It is during this change that American persons will find a "new price
inflation" from a "existing currency inflation". In this time, the "competition for selling goods and services" will become " the
competition to buy goods and services" in Dollars! You see, it is as you say, "your chicken has roosted for some time, but only
now you find he has come home"!

If a depression does arrive to America's main trading partners, Canada, Japan, little Asia, Mexico, etc., it could destroy many
of these " roosted" dollars and hold the dollar price inflation to, "only extreme". Of this point, perhaps $6,000 gold will be
enough to represent the extent of past "overprinting".

Also, you ask an additional question:

ANOTHER, You emphasize buying physical gold, and you have also said there may come a time when the US Dollar is not
convertible into gold. What do you believe will happen to those who are long gold futures on the COMEX. Do you believe the
COMEX will default, or will these people be able to pay off 10 lifetimes worth of 1998 US dollar denominated consumer

Thank you. I enjoy your THOUGHTS very much.


Don Tatusko

Mr. Tatusko, In the event of a major increase in gold price, I do not think the persons on the other side of any large gold
contract will have the resources to deliver cash in a settlement. Perhaps they may deliver the physical metal if it is in account? I
ask, if you have "leveraged" an account for the "short side" by 200%, and the market moves against you, "overnight" by
1,000%. Could you complete the "most honorable" contract? " plan not your sail for the calm day, as a strong wind may
change your landfall"

Thank You

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:13 - ID#28586)
@PPT: "...must ... pull ... up .... must ... pull ..................UP..."
so boyz, struggling with that DOW cockpit joystick? Don't worry about that mountain peak with your name painted on it ... after a few more sessions, you'll be painted on it ... all over it.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:15 - ID#347235)
Considering the list of persons it is obiviously not a brain!! hee hee heh

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:17 - ID#30116)
I don't see why everyone gets so excited about 147/dollar. Back in the mid eighties we an exchange rate of 350/dollar and 3.50 DM/dollar. At this rate of increase in the 'strength' of the dollar, who will need to work? Foreigners will just give everything to America. ( Absurd humor intended. )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:18 - ID#28861)
August von Finck has filed with the SEC to buy as much as 25% of HM. He bought over 3 million shares in July. This kind of support keeps HM from suffering as much as the rest.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:20 - ID#242325)

Home - Yahoo! - Help

[ Business | US Market | By Industry | IPO | AP | S&P | International | PRNews | BizWire ]

Tuesday August 11, 2:14 pm Eastern Time

Ashanti Goldfields buys back 282,500 shrs

NEW YORK, Aug 11 ( Reuters ) - African gold mining group Ashanti Goldfields Co.
Ltd. ( ASL - news; AGC.GH ) said Tuesday it repurchased 282,500 shares on August

It said in a statement that the shares were bought between $7.1875 and $7.40 each.
They will be held as treasury shares for possible re-issue at the board's discretion.

The company had said on July 30 that it planned to buy back about five percent of its ordinary shares depending on market

More Quotes and News:
Ashanti Goldfields Company Ltd ( NYSE:ASL - news )
Related News Categories: US Market News

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:21 - ID#372262)
And we, of course, will be happy to take it!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:23 - ID#229207)
The DOW will find a new home for the evening around 8300
This just in:

"Fed to Examine Relationship Between Wage Growth and Inflation
The Fed's latest beige book report, released August 5 for debate at the August 18 FOMC monetary policy meeting, indicates that the Fed may be changing its view of the relationship between wage growth and inflation. The Fed has taken the approach that if wages rise it has to raise interest rates to stave-off inflation. The beige book suggests that wage growth is stimulated by inflation, not vice versa, and the economy's current downturn is at least partially the result of minimal wage growth not being able to maintain supply-side growth."

Looks like the Fed is getting a clue that their favorite indicator of inflation, wages, isn't going up because corporations can't increase wages because their earnings are dropping because demand and prices are dropping because we're in a deflation.

Now that that revelation is public, can a drop in interest rates be far behind?


Spud Master
(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:23 - ID#28586)
stick-shaker sounds + synthetic voice saying:

black box audio tape ends with PPT final word:

"OH, SHI..."

Spud, re-reading The Declaration of Independance for lunch

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:24 - ID#30116)
Spud Master
According to the ORIGNAL intent of the impeachment articles in the constitution, Clinton is more than impeachable ( if that's possible ) . The impeachment articles are as much, if not more, about the office holders CHARACTER as they are about 'crimes'. People think that you have to have committed some crime to be impeached. NOT SO! CHARACTER MATTERS!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:29 - ID#242325)
changing times
Concepts of what is oversold and waht isn't undergoing drastic revision. Under the old paradigm Dow would be surging today instead of collapsing. Key indicators which worked well during the bull no longer operative. Use them at your peril.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:33 - ID#426220)

J ( Vronsky: 1929 Vs 1973 Vs 1998 )
The RCA vs Microsoft comparison is facinating! It would be even
more interesting to see a third leading High tech company added for the 1973 bear. Perhaps IBM?

Excellent idea about IBM - but since I now work 110+ hours
weekly, I really don't have the time. But, tell you what. If
YOU do the research and study, I will post it to 131 countries
under your authorship. Is it a deal?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:34 - ID#252150)
The SF is strengthening as a safe haven. The Swiss won't accept an overvalued
uncompetitive currency vountarily. I would'nt be surprised to see one of their periodical negative news releases re: AU soon.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:38 - ID#350179)
c'mon PPT!!!
only 61 points to have ( only ) a double digit loss.
Today's performance has been less than inspiring.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:42 - ID#288140)
Retired Soldier
Good try, but it's not the official answer:~ )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:44 - ID#343171)
PPT dow up 140 pts in 2hrs

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:46 - ID#219363)
The daily trend seems to have reversed. Weeks ago you saw intra-day highs followed by bears bringing it down a few notches, but for the past week or two it seems the opposite, intra-day lows with the bulls pulling it back up with buying at the end.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:47 - ID#350179)
5 minutes left. You only need 10 stinkin' points. Go boyz, go.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:49 - ID#289357)
mozel (and other defenders of liberty)
Something uncovered while looking for other stuff:


Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:50 - ID#212323)
Tuning back in...interesting day so far.
Sam's looking for a last name. Away...for a bit...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:52 - ID#43349)
DOW -111
PPT or the day traders covering, here it comes.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:56 - ID#219363)
@Mountain Goat
Yep, let's just watch her fall. Looks like it's not going to be today, who knows, maybe not even next year. I get lost when they start talking too much about trees and not enough about the forest. All I see, intuitively, is that economies around the world are having trouble, it's getting worse, and with the inter-connection of everything, that can't be good for our own economy ( US ) . Started in Japan, spread to Asia, crossed over to India and Pakistan, and now it's spreading into Canada and Mexico. Maybe it'll stop, but I don't see it in the cards myself, and I'm not betting on it ( actually, I'm betting on a falling market ) . In the end, markets are complicated things, and to think that economic troubles elsewhere, especially when they are so wide-spread won't affect us, to me is naive.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 15:59 - ID#288186)
Looks like Aragorn III wins the sam prize...DOW finishes down -113. Quite
a come-back the last half-hour. Not sure it was PPT...Bargain hunters?
That's what the commentators will probably say.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:00 - ID#288140)
Aragorn III solved the puzzle.
I'm gonna find him a harder one!;- )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:04 - ID#350179)
Envy - I agree, here's a new wrinkle
Russia accuses Pakistan of helping Taliban forces

Fox_Man you're probably right - could also just be alternating buy/sell programs triggered by transient conditions within an hour of close.
( but it's sooo tempting to imagine the PPT on speed-dial ; )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:05 - ID#288186)
Comex Metal Warehouse Totals....Gold down 3k..Silver flat....
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 11

Gold 1,173,729 - 3,534 troy ounces
Silver 79,135,644 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 57,871 + 317 short tons

N/A= Not available.
Silver has been quiet lately.....

The Hatt
(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:07 - ID#364255)
And They Call The VSE The Scam Capital Of The World!!!!!!!
The ppt were back at work today paring the losses on the Dow to the low 100 range and they used the same tactics as last week. Then the talking heads take over with their verbage of way off the lows of the day! In the meantime the average investor makes decisions based on this false market action and the absolute bullshit being touted by CNBC! Their actions are no different than high closing a stock on a dialy basis which all of you know is illegal! For what it is worth the trend is down and the floor traders are getting awfully good at anticipating the moves of the ppt. To the point where they admitted to pulling offers when the buy programs come in and end up getting off their stock at a higher position. The ponzi game is sure to end soon. By the way they didnot bang gold today until 15 minutes before the close which is off by two minutes. They are slipping!!!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:08 - ID#43349)
I think the day traders had a lot to do with it. They have become a significant factor in the markets.

This morning the world exchanges were red. A massive short sentiment was in place as evidenced by the globex futures before the market even opened. The early trade was more than just the normal sheep. It was a lot of say trading shorts too.

At the end of the day they close their positions.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:10 - ID#252150)
Nice to have a short sale moving in the right direction for a change. My Nortel
short is now down $9 Cdn in 2 weeks. Trying to screw up enough courage to short AMZN again. Got caught in a squeeze the last time. I'm convinced that it will be down 50% by year end, but the squeezes can be painfull.

Won't touch au stocks again until JY turns & don't see that happening anytime soon, unless we have another intervention, which would only be good for a very short term trade.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:13 - ID#189268)
Fox Man@Dow closes
The close today is not surprising. There was alot of earlty shorting going on and covering at the end. I also think that the big brokerage firms will do anything to hide the fact that market internals have deteriorated dramtically. This "painting the tape" allows the CNBC and CNN spinmeisters to talk about wonderful value and a big turnaound etc. The reality as we know here is that we ahve had a 1000 point drop in three weeks from top to bottom in the Dow and that's ugly. Yet any discussions about retail investors say they are staying the course etc. The goal of course is to try and prevent the one day massacres, but the reality is a rolling correction with each rally attemp in the last few weeks being met by increased selling pressure. The immediate future is not good. Next week there is the uncertainty of Clinton's testimony and those horrible trade figures for June. In two weeks we will see earnings warnings from some major commpanies about third quarter results IMO. No matter what the close looks like we have a stealth bear market that has destroyed many stocks already and the big-caps will be the last
to fall.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:15 - ID#43349)
Well, this morning before the market opened, I expected a dip in the morning followed by a recovery in the afternoon.

I didn't anticipate the dip would be hard nose down full power suicide attempt. Nor that the recover would be a feeble 140+ pull up in the last couple of hours with a punt 90 point burst in th last half hour.

Whew! What a day.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:16 - ID#219363)
@Mountain Goat, MM
And another reason, the real reason that I see the markets due for a large decrease, and our economy is due for a real slow down is more simple and closer to home.

The past few years have seen an amazing amount of work done by the average person in America, an amazing amount of stress and pressure. That's really what a high market is an indicator for - the amount of human work being performed. It's been a beautiful run, something for the history books and has lasted a number of years, expansion has been something to stand and look at with awe and pride. But I think your average American is getting tired. Things move in cycles and we're following a cycle of extremely heavy activity on the part of your average person, and I think everyone is ready, and would indeed feel relieved and less burdened, if the world just slowed down and took a breather. As the I-Ching says, "Rise without stopping, and you will be exhausted".

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:19 - ID#43349)
I would, but it's hard to find anything to be enthusiastic there.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:27 - ID#288186)
Gollum, truenorth; Yep...sounds right to me. Alot of people did some day
trading today wanting to catch a dramatic fall. They covered late
in the session.
I think we all agree the stock market is in deep doodoo. I'm not
excited about a huge stock market crash because we all know the
aftermath will be ugly. I am hoping for the PM's to skyrocket soon
and one of the catalyst will probably be this heavy stock market bear...
The U.S. dollar will, of course, be another catalyst, along with other
events,etc, etc, etc.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:33 - ID#242325)
the action
That last hour rebound was much less impressive than it seemed. Broad market rebounded much less than the Dow and S&P 500. Until the broad market starts to consistently outperform, the trend will reamin down.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:42 - ID#254269)
Dow Advance/decline ; What was a/d today ?
anyone know ?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:42 - ID#43349)
I agree. I think it was in large part just short covering by those who didn't want to be exposed overnight.

Short covering is not a firm foundation for a bull rally, to be sure.

There be many beasties and things that go bump in the night.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:43 - ID#431263)
this ain't no ordinary correction. It's a BEAR!! Once again, despite the late innings rally on low volume and no conviction, the market still fell its allotted 100+ points for the day! The deterioration of market internals is absolutely mind-numbing! Low volume, A/D Line, PE Ratio, New highs/lows, moneystream, transports below 200 DMA, imploding overseas markets, plunging emerging market debt, geopolitical turmoil, devaluation risk, defaulting loan risk, margin calls--IT'S ALL NEGATIVE!!! Bottom line is that the PPT can only cushion the market's collapse and channel it lower--it CANNOT STOP ITS SLIDE!! The short and intermediate term trend is now clearly DOWN and nothing will change it until the DOW closes back above its July 17 high now over 1,000 points away!! Sure, on a short term basis we are oversold, but longer term we are still way overbought! The market psychology has now shifted from buy the dips to sell the rallies and it is this psychology that will keep taking the DOW down to ever lower lows! The shunning of the Bond market after mid session is but one more nail in the bull's coffin as the flight to safety begins to shift away from US paper to hard asset alternatives! Couple more weeks of this and the flight to safety will begin to impact the metals. Meantime, its get me out, pay off my margin calls by selling whatever can be sold, and let the dust settle till I feel confid3ent about what is goin' on. Any rally off these lows is a great selling opportunity and may be the last chance for bulls to get out. But the way Asia and Europe look after last night, don't count on any rally. There's STILL TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY IN THIS MARKET TO WARRANT FISHING FOR A BOTTOM! Until volume surges past 1 billion shares on a dramatic washout, this market will continue to deceive the bulls into thinking it's only another short term correction!
They will buy it all the way down and when they finally realize they are trapped, they will DUMP with reckless abandon!! Perhaps, then, we can start thinking about a bottom, but at that point people will be more focused on the safer haven of gold!

Nikkei now has a confirmed target of 12,800 and Hang Seng has a confirmed target of 5400! If you really want to get unsettled, take a long hard look at the MTMS ( Moscow Times ) and MXX ( Mexican Bolsa ) ! These problems will only get worse and exacerbate the global competitive currency depreciation already in motion!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:43 - ID#215379)
If Rubin doesn't sell the dollar and buy some yen, kiss the commodities
( including gold ) , and worldwide economy good-by.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:44 - ID#433172)
Or...Makes progress like a hampster. I Ching is full of good ones.

People do need a rest...Great depression days I remember my father being delighted to be out of work so we could go up to the lakes and go fishing. Money is greatly overrated per se.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:46 - ID#253153)
When will the dollar decline against foreign currencies ?
With deflation accelerating, the CRB recorded new low's at 203. The Dow declined 113 points and the long bond closed at 5.9%. The dollar will continue to rise and foreign currencies will weaken further. The dollar will begin to decline only AFTER we have a financial panic in the markets. I expect that panic sometimes between Sep--Oct . After the panic, the fed will be very scared and wiil begin to reduce short term rates. Since gold mining stocks will anticipate a rise in the POG, I think we may be scraping the bottom in the XAU. The gold mining stocks represent extraordinary values . For the next 6 weeks we should experience severe stock market decline.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:47 - ID#215379)
short-covering was-------
the Big Boys who know that the PPT has to sell the $buck

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:53 - ID#24135)
History repeats ..
Silver went through possible support at 8 francs ..
next stop 7.5 francs .. makes 5 bucks..
ag/au ratio Rising fast .. almost 55 .. can go to
59 without much problem ..
Silver at 5 can accomodate gold at present levels ..
I hope.
Someone suggested 10 rands to the peso .. that makes
100 rands to the dollar .. versus 5 last quarter..
That would take dollar costs to an interesting
level .. say 280*5/100 = about 14 dollars an ounce..
Gee North American producers might have trouble
operating with gold at say 32$/oz ..

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:55 - ID#210253)
Here's what one stockbroker accomplished today.

Good Luck to ya, Ken Fossett!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:56 - ID#350179)
I wish this were more comprehensive
Market-by-market look at plunging stocks worldwide

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:56 - ID#253153)
Golden Cheesehead--- You are right on the money

(Tue Aug 11 1998 16:59 - ID#219363)
What to do
With all that money you probably have sitting in a money market fund. I've been considering it myself. Bonds, CDs, Zeros, nah. Stocks, no friggin way. Commodities, Futures, Options, maybe. But thinking of a possible future where things are different than they are now, what's the world going to look like ?

Well, inflation can't stay low forever. Credit can't be so low in interest forever. Unemployment can't stay this low. We can't all be making money in the stock market forever. In short, money won't be such an easy thing to come by some day down the road. At that point, down the road, I think if anyone could look back to today and change one thing about what they did with their money, they'd do this - cover your debt. Use all that money to cover any outstanding debts you're carrying right now before interest rates rise and drive those credit cards, ARMs, etc, through the roof. Make sure you aren't going to be a slave to the bank when things get a little tougher. I think that's a good investment right now.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:01 - ID#368244)

I say bye bye mining companies, as well as a good portion of the rest of the world economy.

U.S. be warned, the dogs want eat bones while one eats steak.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:04 - ID#431263)
A/D Line 555/2589 @ 5-1 DOWN!! 515 NEW LOWS ONLY 15 NEW HIGHS!


(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:12 - ID#263254)
chitty chat from the Rush Limbaugh show...
Tuned into the show this morning while I was putzing around, and a
stockbroker from Arkansas called in about Y2K. Says he is experiencing
ON A DAILY BASIS clients who are scared sh**less and are pulling out
of the markets and buying our favorite golden asset. By the way,
the clients he referenced are in the seven digit investment range.

Uh oh!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:14 - ID#174239)
Vronsky: 1973 research, IBM?
There are very few decent research tools I have access to. Most don't have data bases that go back over 20 years. But, since I am only working a measly 50+ hours a week, I'll give it a shot and let you know if I find anything meaningfull.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:20 - ID#350179)
What? It could affect *US*? No, really?...
Asian fallout could reach beyond stock slide, affecting US economy

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:22 - ID#280339)
New low closes for Dow and SP500
Even with the strong close the dow and S&P made new lows for this baby bear market. The strong finish suggests that there isn't enough fear to generate a strong counter rally yet.

From an elliot wave perspective it looks like this down move can already be divided into five waves. If thats true then we have a bear market and not another opportunity for the dipsters.

If the elliot wave pattern holds after a 200 to 300 more dow points down we get an ABC rally then an even stronger third wave down begining this fall. Of course 10 different elliot wave advocates will give you 25 different interpretations.

The main point is the strength of the down move immediately after a new high suggests that this is no ordinary correction. As this fact becomes apparent the long awaited Gold Bull will begin.

Got Gold!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:23 - ID#342256)
Still plenty of 'irrational exuberance'

( New York ) -- Global markets are down sharply, but investors are still
buying up the internet stocks.
A new offering, web site host GeoCities, began trading on the Nasdaq
stock market today. Investors quickly bid up the shares to about double
the offering price of 17 dollars.
There was some speculation today that GeoCities shares wouldn't be
traded in light of the downturn, but that turned out to be incorrect.
The Santa Monica, California-based company is valued at more than
900- ( M ) Million dollars with the runup in the stock price.


( 900 million is more than the total revenue of both Hewlett-Packard and Netscape )

got gold? a little
go gold! You bet

ANOTHER member of the Kitco _A family

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:24 - ID#35087)
Agreed with your earlier post on US workers needing a break...

Also: The debt load of most Americans has become such a huge burden
that I don't believe many folks have a lot of room to invest anything
but the 401k money that comes directly out of their paycheck.

People are getting tapped out. Evidenced by the record numbers of
personal bankruptcies each successive quarter.

Greed + easy credit will be ( has been! ) the undoing of many.

No, people don't have a great deal of extra cash to spend right now.
Joe Sixpack spent waaaayyy too much on his summer vacation ( s ) , the
markets are goin' down ( so his investments are lookin' ugly ) , and
he's a little worried.
3rd quarter is going to be a BIT@H for American businesses...
Stock sinking... Nobody buying the products... Overseas sales near zero...
Stocks sinking more on news of negative income, etc.

The frenzy built on itself going up -
Now it'll feed on itself going down.
Such are markets and manias


MG ( Got Gold? Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:26 - ID#431263)
His advice? Locate stocks that have already had their bear markets. The only group that has really done well in a bear market are gold stocks!!
Time to short the market, buy a bear market mutual fund, and buy gold stocks!--Hugh Lynch

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:29 - ID#35087)
@gogold... 2+2=-6?
Whoops... 2 days 2 dollars up??? I hate it when that happens.

So how are you feeling about 3-2-5 @ 11-11?
I'm still thinking that one has good prospects. Yep.


MG ( Go Gold! Go Gogold! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:36 - ID#431263)
How many world market indeces last night and today had triple digit losses?


(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:39 - ID#153102)
Found nothing at the link of your posting. Was that the message ?

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:39 - ID#35087)
@ALL + Bart
Simple question:

If I buy Gold Maples from Bart, and I'm a US citizen, what are the ( gov't ) reporting requirements? Are there any? Are they the same as
buying bullion coins in the US?

If things get rough, I certainly don't want federal agents knocking
gently on my door and asking for golden handouts.

And yes, I'm FULLY aware of pre-1933 gold & silver coin issues, so
I need no info on those. ;- )

TIAVM ( Thanks in advance very much )

MG ( Go *unreportable* Gold! )

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:40 - ID#212323)
Tolerant1 easy, the toiling minions of the CC Mailroom were successful in their efforts...
There is as I write this a package waiting for me to claim at the FedEx depot as I was not present during the attempt at delivery.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...what auditory pleasures await? I will soon have joyous tunes by which to eat cake!

I know you do, but I ask it anyway...

got gold?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:45 - ID#411112)
Mountain Goat....It will be a historic first..US FEDS SERVE WARRENT ON MOUNTAIN GOAT FOR GOLD STASH.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:47 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.75. The 144 day moving average is 29.51. ( Monex closing spot prices of $284.50 and $5.17 were used for calculations tonight )

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:47 - ID#212323)
Mountain Goat...You are misinterpreting the hep-call...
Gogold did not "predict" that gold would go up $2 each day for two days effective immediately. Gogold said the turn would be signaled by that same movement. It may occur at this price or at one lower...but likely not lower than $278, because the hep-call of "5 weeks or $5" was...Good as Gold.

got gold?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:47 - ID#280339)
Great post ( 16:43 ) ! Especially about the TBonds closing so poorly. Bought some Dec Tbond puts today. Maybe still a little early but US debt is going to burn during the current bear market.

The commercials have near a record short position in the futures market. Billy boy is going to run the printing press to try and keep his poll number up. The most important factor is the dollar going down with the market. Once this happens the TBond is toast.

Got Gold!!

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:47 - ID#33182)
Why worry about shorting the market when you can make 10% in three hours on the $/yen?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 17:49 - ID#273432)

Do you mean that the link didn't work, or that the content was of no value? If the latter, well - you would be an infinitely better judge on that than I.

Just to check, I just tried it again - if you couldn't access it, the subject is the 13th Admendment.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:00 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .213. The 144 day moving average is .253. There have been only 10 occasions when the XAU closed in the 60.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #10. All previous closes in this range occurred between May 30, 1986, and July 30, 1986. The #1 ranking was on July 27, 1986, with a gold price of $352.10, an XAU of 60.20 producing an XAU/AU ratio of .171. The lowest XAU/AU ratio ever recorded was .170.

Tonight the XAU/AU ratio is 18.39% below its 233 day moving average of .261. The last major XAU rally began on December 2, 1997, from a point that was 23.13% below the 233 day moving average. That rally retested, but did not break, the December 1st low on January 12, 1998, and went on with a nice advance from that point.

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:05 - ID#377196)
The Fed
The Fed's comments listed earlier in the day mentioned the
statement: "Minimum wage gains can't keep up with supply side economics."
The poster then concluded ( I forget who that was ) that the next
move by the Fed was to lower interest rates.

I guess I can see what the poster meant. Lower rates are the only
tool the Fed has in fighting a slower economy. But to me it says
something else. It tells me that the Fed is making a fundamental
change in how it looks at things. It says to me that they now think
wage gains are necessary to help the economy. In other words they
are going to support inflation. They had better. The current emplosion
is getting out of hand.

In some ways I think the Fed is a lot late and will do too little.
Greenspam is the worst Fed chairman ever. The pain he is causing the
rest of the world should not be tolerated. We will watch this together,
yes? Kiss all mining stocks and Asian stocks, and etc. goodbuy
if there is a debt emplosion. It will be over in a matter of a week.
Nothing will be left except the brick and the motar. And gold.

This is WAR. I am not under any illusions to the contrary. And in
war.....few win....many are expendable.....

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:05 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.03. The 144 day moving average is 50.77

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:12 - ID#384350)
@Avalon, A/D
The adv/dec ratio finished just under 5 decliners to 1 advancer. Earlier in the session it was roughly 10 to 1. There were 17 new 52 wk highs versus 520 new lows.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:12 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages.
Spot gold $296.82; spot silver $5.89; XAU 75.20

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:16 - ID#35087)
@Aragorn III - I stand corrected!
I was confused because I saw only the last message:

Date: Mon Aug 10 1998 00:13
gogold ( Wizened, you've got it exactly - It will go up for all of these reasons and more ) ID#353204:
2 days - $2
325 - 11/11

And I missed the original message explaining all:

Date: Sun Aug 02 1998 14:09
gogold ( Thank God Poops is back ) ID#353204:

( snip )

Further instructions as promised: Wait for two consecutive
days when gold goes up $2.00. Then, in the words of the
immortal ( well, I guess not literally ) Alan Shepherd,
"Why don't you fix your little problem and light this candle."

Place your bets on who comes out of this battle unscathed once

-tc, tc, tc, tc, twsmc

I'm still confused, but that's got nothing to do with gogold that I'm aware of.
Just a ( permanent? ) state of mind.

Thanks for setting me straight.

MG ( Go Strider! Go Gold! )

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:18 - ID#377196)
August is the month. I can feel it. Something fundamental must happen or we are going down the toilet. Greenspam must take the marbles out
of his mouth and the head out of his ass ( I don't care in what order )
and get the price of gold up to $350 fast. That will be the signal
that the deflation brewing will not be tolerated. It will send big
losses to those who have pushed the deflation trades almost putting
farmers, miners, etc out of business.

Yes, August is the month. If nothing happens I predict the roof
will fall in. And no body will benefit except those who are short
the market. Gold? Not for a long time. Years.

We watch this together. Yes?

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:19 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages
Spot gold $301.15; spot silver $5.64; XAU 79.07; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.99

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:22 - ID#261155)
in just what part of title 26...are you thinking Mozel?????

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:24 - ID#261155)
@Are you thinking
that a statute supersedes constitutional provisions if there should be a
conflict of law?????

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:25 - ID#280214)
Mozel - I agree with your 03:03
As far as Gold being necessary for freedom and its greater stability compared to fiat money. That does not change the fact that money is whatever people believe it to be. If next year people lost faith in being able to use Gold to buy stuff with or to store value so that they can buy something in the future - with their savings pretty much intact, then Gold ceases to be money.

Mozel, you and many of the rest of us here are preaching to the choir. If my knowledge of history is correct, it is the disenfranchised, angry, have-nots who can not identify with the concerns of the middle or upper classes group or "class" which are the most volatile and dangerous and which are the breeding ground for revolutions. Often when they come into power they are worse than the "oppressors" they displaced. Helping them feel more secure and helping them become part of the solution such as getting Gold & Silver coin in their pockets may help avert such a trauma. If they own some Gold & Silver too - then they may not feel so powerless.
Thus we must try to get Gold coinage back into circulation so it is used every day for "money" again. Obviously the various national governments are not willing to do so. ( Though any such credible, respected government that did so would, I believe, be positioned well to have its money become a world standard ) . Given this sorry state of affairs, perhaps a private consortium will step up to the plate and DO SOMETHING to increase demand and the amount in everyone's pockets rather than just wringing their hands about the POG or POS. I have made many lengthy and detailed posts about the details of such a series of coins. I am contributing advice and ideas to Chas, Aurator, and Tolerant1 who are working on just such an endeavor. We all need to support them - to the tune of not just buying their coins but in selling coins and the idea of Gold ownership to everyone we meet - and not just those in our circle ( the choir ) but the denizens of bars and rod & gun clubs as well. This latter group can be very powerful - for better or worse. We can make it better by promoting Gold to the masses and not just each other.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:28 - ID#404124)
Song O'Th-Day?
Arena Tina------Strong As Steel

The Machine's Breaking Down

Proven patterns breaking down
All controls gone underground
We should have never come to this
Yet here we stand
Devoid of optimists

The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
We set the wheels in motion
Now we're caught in the commotion
The machine's breaking down

Japan,China,Hong Kong gone ?
South America,Canada and around the Cape.
Religion and politics, plunder and rape
While the weak Dow's down
And pray for escape

The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
We set the wheels in motion
Now we're caught in the commotion
The machine's breaking down

Addicts bent on self destruction
A billion dollars for the masters of seduction
Despair and hope go hand in hand
Charting the inevitable course of man
Bloody images bounce off the wall
As the satellite pictures tell it all
While common goals and common ground
Disappear as the world breaks down

The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
We set the wheels in motion
Now we're caught in the commotion
The machine's breaking down

The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
The machine's breaking down
( Repeat to fade )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:30 - ID#242325)
Abbey and Joe
Note that this decline commenced just days after Abbey Cohen again said that she is still bullish. This has never happened before. Another sign of changing times.

Abbey's rep is going down the toilet fast. And so is that of Joe ( Dow 12,000 in 1998 ) Granville.

Good riddance!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:32 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron et al re price of silver
Sorry, I've been helping some guys write their webpage so have not had the time to be miserable at the falling market nor paranoid over y2k nor ecstatic over the Prezz's orgasmic function. Wo we'll pass on those subjects. IMHO

But my question is one of incredible optimism about the chance to pick up some more silver at fire sale prices. What do you think is the chance we'll have one more buying opportunity below $4.85 this year? A buy in the $4.35 range like last year seems nearly unreachable, but what do you think about whether it is at all possible?

Mad Hatter__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:34 - ID#284230)
"Now is the time the walrus said, to speak of many things, of ships and sails of cabbages and kings and why the sea is boiling hot and whether pigs have wings"....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:34 - ID#57232)
Everyone notice that the gold stocks went down
more than everything else? FSAGX and FDPMX down more than 5% today,
and cry0 went down 1.3%. Anyone know what happened to the JOC?
Any thoughts about the deflationary effects of trade with South America dropping off in the near future? What of Europe at a later time? I think we have to be really watchful of the commodity price indices since they are pretty good indicators of inflationary trends, or the lack of them.
The US dollar went up again today, as expected. What bothers me is that no one seems worried about the rising dollar, which will only worsen the financial crises that are sweeping the world. Perhaps the BIS has not yet stepped in to buy gold just yet.
I get the feeling of events that are inexoribly moving in the direction of serial currency crises all over the world -- especially in those countries that have sold their reserves, such as gold. Those who have not come to terms with their excessive use of debt will learn to regret their folly -- sooner or later. A time will come when inflation will no longer work as a way to avoid the payment of debt. That time may be sooner than we think.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:36 - ID#26793)
China: trouble in te cities could spread to the countryside where peasants are incensed.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:37 - ID#269191)
Old Gold: Agree re: Joe and Abbey.
But real nirvana will only be achieved when Wall Street Week is canceled
and that cheap tout-- Rukeyeser-- eats crow.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:44 - ID#242325)

My strong hunch is that we will soon see a dramtic reversla in US monetary policy to head off spiralling global deflation. When that happens gold, oil, the CRB, and Asian stocks will soar. But the slide will continue until this happens. Markets will force the Fed to act soon.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:45 - ID#57232)
What would happen with $200/oz gold?
First, the US dollar would go up around 10-12%.

Second, the demand for gold bullion coins in the US would go out of sight, and they would be cheap, but unavailable. Just as if the US government had artificially pegged the price of gold, distorting the markets.

Third, the price of numismatic gold coins would rise just as if the price of gold had gone up, not down.

Fourth, it is quite possible that the US would no longer have most of its international trading partners. US made goods would be too expensive to export, and our trade deficit would rise even more.

Fifth, most of the gold producers ( in the US at least ) would shut down.

I don't think any of us would enjoy this scenario, even if we were not gold bugs.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:47 - ID#242325)
DEJ: I eagerly await the day that Louis is no longer polluting the airways. That probsbly will be the time to load up on dirt cheap stocks.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:48 - ID#33182)
Currency market rumors
Soros may hold five billion Dollars in Hong Kong Dollar forwards

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:49 - ID#57232)
I agree
Old Gold: How will they reverse this deflationary process in the US without precipating an inflationary debacle? If AG prints dollars, he risks having more come home to roost later, even if he can keep them out of the equity markets.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:53 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at noon.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:55 - ID#32078)
Gold timing
For what it's worth, for the last 2-3 months in this gold slide, since early May, there has been a correlation between the dollar in yen, the long bond interest rate and POG. i.e. Gold falls when the rate slides and the dollar goes up. Nothing new there for most Kitcoists.
Recently, gold rallies were cut short because the bond rate refused to go up, and the rally died quickly. Meanwhile, support for the yen induced rallies which quickly collapsed when market forces took over about 3 days later. A decrease in bond rate was quick to indicate no serious rally.
Today, someone big was in the market early buying dollars as the rate dropped quickly from 5.619 to 5.57 and the dollar jumped early over 147.7 yen. Gold dutifully fell as if ordered. However, the bond rate close up from its low at 5.59% was a relatively large 'recovery' compared to daily action in the previous two months, and although gold stayed low, XAU teased us with its all-time low, silver lost .13, and most gold stocks were losers, the rate increase indicated that there were many others selling dollars at the end.
I get a feeling that some big money thinks that we are very close to something which will clip the dollar and rally the metals. Perhaps the expected large US Treasury refunding this week is having an effect.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:55 - ID#33182)
Barrick Gold says "no" to $202 mln Peru deposit
LIMA, Aug 11 ( Reuters ) - Canada's Barrick Gold ( ABX.TO - news ) , North America's second largest gold producer, said Tuesday it will not use a $202 million buy option on a Peruvian deposit in a fresh blow to the government's privatization program.

Instead, Barrick said it will focus its activities in Peru on other deposits, and especially on its $260 million mine development at Pierina, which should come on-line in December and produce 750,000 ounces in the first year.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 18:58 - ID#26793)
Is Indonesia in default? Indonesia says "NO"; the bankers say "YES"

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:05 - ID#32078)
Support levels
CNBC news today was full of bulls hitting on the idea that we are at a 3 to 4 year support level for just about every market index in existence. Except for the Transportation index which has already fallen thru. Even if the Dow rallies a day or two, any further dip will drop thru support and excite every chartist in the western hemisphere.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:05 - ID#25171)
Some humor to finish the day
Some here have made comments about microsoft's stock incredible valuation and the pending lawsuits about its monopolistic behavior.
Maybee the lawsuits are just being filed because there are still some faithfull christians in the administration.
ASCII TRANSLATION :66+73+76+76+71+65+84+69+83 +3=666

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:06 - ID#350179)
Side notes
Hmmmm, FGLDX ( now around $1.70/shr ) is no longer printed in the local newspaper MF listings. It disappeared shortly after diving under $2.00.

Bill Buckler
(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:10 - ID#256381)
Yen Intervention: June 17 - ?????
Yesterday, in Asia, the Yen fell below its level back in mid-June, when the Fed stepped in to prop it up in concert with the bank of Japan.

That even occurred on June 17. Ever since then, the correlation of the moves on the Dow and the Nikkei Dow charts has been uncanny. I have charts up on The Privateer website showing this correlation in detail.

Even with the 100 point "claw back" by the Dow in the last 30 minutes of trading today, the chart looks bloody awful. The Nikkei doesn't look as bad, but it is tracking the Dow's fall since mid July pretty closely.

I have seen several posters to this forum speculate about Asia in general and Japan in particular being the place to make some money if and when the Dow goes into the tank. Take a look at the charts, and think again.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:16 - ID#32078)
For the last week, there seems to be a multitude of financial experts saying how Chinese problems will probably cause China to devalue the yuan even when they have over $100 billion of US dollars in reserve. Devaluation would be to help their trade situation, expecially if the domestic masses become restless.
IMHO, if they simply sell some dollars, they would not only support the yuan exchange rate but also help support all other Asian currencies, including the yen by weakening the dollar. With the amount of dollars going to them monthly due to our trade imbalance, I think it is inevitable. When that happens, they won't announce it, the dollar will just drop. I would also expect them to have already loaded up on gold since they are major producers, so the POG would have stabilized before they sell dollars. This drop in the dollar after gold levels off could be the final signal to load up the wagons.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:22 - ID#404124)
OK--Since Y'all Didn't LIke That'n---How's Bout This'n

Bobs----Songs For Tomorrow Morning

( First I Was A Hippie, Then I Was A Stockbroker ) Now I Am A Hippie Again

First I was a hippie
Then I was a stockbroker
Now I am a hippie again

In the Summer of Love I was mellow and high
I had my bus and my dog
and everything I needed to get by
But the years rolled on and I settled down
I parked my bus and took a car pool into town

A stockbroker in a three piece suit
I gave up sellin' hash and started doin' toot
I had more money than I'd ever dreamed of
I forgot all about the Summer of Love

First I was a hippie
Then I was a stockbroker
Now I am a hippie again

The years went by faster and faster
Down on Wall Street they called me the master
I soon had more money than Lady Astor
I couldn't see an impending disaster

But I wasn't happy
I broke out in a rash
I just couldn't handle the stress...
And then came the crash

First I was a hippie
Then I was a stockbroker
Now I am a hippie again

I'm free -- I lost all I had and that's ok with me
I'm free -- I think I'll check the oil in my van
I'm free -- I've got tickets for all five nights
of the Grateful Dead
I'm free -- hey, see my new macrame briefcase
I'm free -- etc...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:23 - ID#32078)
Fund prices
For your information, EagleWing provides a page on gold funds at
which also links to quote locations for the major gold funds, including FGLDX.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:26 - ID#288295)
gagnrad @ silver price

I just returned from a week of vacation from work, gold, silver, stocks, kitco, and generally anything else which has puzzled/annoyed/consumed me of late to find ( surprise, surprise!! ) silver with no price support ( despite the positive fundementals ) ....

I'm afraid one of the silver traders may be able to help you better than I can on entry points.

However, $5 silver is still more than 90% down from its all-time high, so is pretty attractive anywhere in here to me ( as a long-term investment ) .

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:27 - ID#174103)
Old Gold
There does not need to be a reversal of US monetary policy. I mean, all the Fed has to do is increase the money supply from a 10% annual rate, as it is now, to 20%. Skousen stated that deflation and hyperinflation are two sides of the same coin. That is, as deflationary pressures increase, you can, as the Fed, turn around and burn your creditors, those who hold your promises to pay by increasing your money supply. But creditors can also turn around and make you feel their pain, because ultimately, they control the terms on which they'll buy any more of your paper

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:32 - ID#316193)
Some Deep Thoughts About Our Future Economy by John Makin

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:41 - ID#153102)
Link didn't work.
I have posted the text of the 13th Amendment prohibiting titles of honor and nobility and aceptance of emolument from foreign powers and withdrawing federal citizenship and access to office anywhere in America from any violating its prohibitions. I'm glad you publicized a link to it.
I have personal knowledge of the printing of this Amendment as part of the Constitution along with the general and permanent laws of Virginia by Act of the General Assembly of Virginia, 1819. The book of laws exists. In many places. And I have personal knowledge of one such. As a public act, this publication is due the full faith and credit of all of the several States according to the Constitution. Either the amendment was ratified by Virginia's vote of approval or you must suppose the men who ordered the amendment's publication as part of the Constitution to have been a convocation of fools or knaves.

Now the courts and legislatures and agencies of the executive are filled with the very people this Amendment specifically prohibited from holding office.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:41 - ID#234218)
Request for deflation/inflation/devaluation clarification
Again, I must show my confusion and ignorance. As I interpret it, deflation is when theres not enough $ to purchase goods, prices and jobs fall. Inflation is the reverse. The Feds print more $ avoiding deflation and the price of goods rises in terms $. Whats the difference between devaluing a currency and inflation? Are they not the same? Would not the purchasing power of gold remain the same in a deflation, possibly rising a little? Then in inflation or devaluation purchasing power would increase dramatically in terms of the $.

My daughter recently asked about the security and wisdom of the U.S. savings bonds she has been buying for her kids. She wanted to know whether to hold, cash in, or convert to gold. We're not talking about a lot of $, but it's a lot to her. Personally, I think holding is the worst choice. However, the answer lies in what direction the economy goes. In attempting to explain I think I confused both of us. Any clarification or affirmation would be appreciated.

Im proud shes thinking about it. I wonder how many more are???

Thank you,

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:46 - ID#347267)
Dow High July 20
Best I can tell, intraday high was 9367.58. with close of 9255.75 July 20, 1998.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 19:46 - ID#273432)

Filled to the brim, indeedy.

I suspected that you would know all about this, but I did not.

So many compromises on such a noble original idea real freedom - I wonder what things would be like if it were as originally planned.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:08 - ID#261155)
@mozel and Silver baron
the link you are looking for to the 13th Amendment is on the 9th here at kitco at 17:18 or 17:13 somewhere in there I posted have to go to link and scroll down a lil to find the 13th link!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:10 - ID#210114)
Beaming In...........
My initial Dow prediction was almost spot on.

That makes a nice change.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:11 - ID#261155)
@I actually posted it twice,
as the direct link would not work......^s^ it will be second post!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:12 - ID#206358)
Russia meltdown!lost 21.89%! and comments?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:15 - ID#210114)
We got a long way to go before gold rallies.

New York--Aug 11--Precious metals futures closed in a sea of red as the
dollar jumped to 8-year highs against the yen. Stocks plummeted around the
globe as fears of Asian currency devaluations escalated, prompting
investors to sell commodities and buy dollars. Gold made a 1-week low;
silver plunged 2.5% after an 8-week low. Copper also suffered, making a
1-month low. By Melanie Lovatt, Darcy Keith, Bridge, Stories .2333, .2100

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:15 - ID#208393)
Canadian Bacon - On Sale (Part2)
All: Check out
It's a page listing 52 Week Highs ( 2 ) and Lows ( too many to count )
I bought some of the stock with American dollars and they refunded me the FULL purchase price with Canadian dollars. What a deal!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:16 - ID#255151)
Mountain Goat--Reporting Requirements

I don't think you are required to report any Gold purchases. You might be required to pay a tax on any profits made when you sell it, I am not sure. However, if it gets to he point of needing to use the Gold for purchases, the Feds may be the least of our problems.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:16 - ID#206358)
Government admits economic 'slump'

With a prominent author and critic now at the helm, the Economic Planning Agency is
revising its assessments to better reflect reality.


Asahi Evening News

Under new leadership, the Economic Planning Agency has finally begun to bow to reality in its
monthly economic assessments, saying the economy has "slumped" as opposed to being merely
stagnant, according to its latest report issued this morning.

The revision came as the agency's new director-general, Taichi Sakaiya, a former MITI
bureaucrat turned author and popular critic of the national bureaucracy, took the helm under
the new administration of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.

His pessimism over the nation's economy contrasts sharply with the EPA under the previous
leadership, which for years maintained a "no worries" outlook on Japan's economic health.

The agency last used the word "slump" in its monthly report from January 1993 through August
1994 as the economy suffered from the collapse of the asset-inflated economy and as the yen
advanced against the dollar.

The August report said the economy has been slumping for a long time, although the agency
has insisted on the word "stagnant" between February and July. It has also stubbornly refused
to say Japan is in "recession," though economists throughout the world are describing the
economy with that term.

The report was released after an economic ministerial meeting this morning.

"We decided to admit frankly that the economic situtation is severe, although it is not that we
never recognized this," Sakaiya told reporters after the meeting. "We believe the severe period
will continue for a significant period of time."

The EPA's monthly report makes modest changes in its wording every month. The government
refers to the report in devising economic policies.

"The agency will continue monitoring the economy as the government carries out economic
stimulus measures, including tax cuts," an agency official said.

The August report said the effect of the persistent weak demand has hit the supply side,
resulting in deteriorating production and employment figures.

The report noted the record high 4.3 percent unemployment rate as a source of great concern.
It also painted a grim picture in factory utility, but noted positively that the inventories dropped
for two straight months.

"We have several positive factors pointing to an economic revival, such as declining
inventories--although we revised our economic assessment slightly this month," the official said.

But the report highlighted the prolonged weakness of consumer spending as a result of
declining real wages.

The report added a new line, saying, "consumers continue to tighten their purse strings," instead
of the earlier reports that hinted at some positive signs in household spending.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:19 - ID#402148)
HOW NOW BROWN COW......big $Y strength on GLOBEX....
gonna dump those pesky $UST bonds?!


(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:28 - ID#255151)

You might try Russia Today. Not sure how good their market coverage is.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:45 - ID#261118)
what time does the nikkei open? (central time)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:46 - ID#288295)

Details on this story are to be provided when

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:46 - ID#240288)
Russian Market Crash--JIN

Looks to me like the Russian currency has come down with a bad case of the Asian Currency Flu. This is caused by the Currency Eating Virus ( CEV ) . The problem, which showed up in SE Asia over a year ago, is world wide and shows no sign of abating. Russian short term debt yields nearly 140%. Very toxic medicine indeed, but that's how they are trying to battle this terrible virus. So far, the best efforts of the world's financial doctors have been an absolute failure. We will watch this virus destroy all paper-based currencies, one by one by one. Yes?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:50 - ID#29048)
It's open now...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:54 - ID#342376)
Nikkei is up! (slighltly)
There was a post here some days ago, I think by dirt that said when Asian markets either go up relative to US Markets or don't decline as fast, that will signal the turnaround for GOLD. I totally agree. If that happens, watch out because not only will Joe Sixpack be getting out of the market here, but so would the rest of the world that parked their money here. Perhaps the Europeon Central Banks are very clever. They did not want to appear to create the EURO as competition for the Dollar, so they keep the POG down and possibly work with the US to keep the POG down ( all those convenient Central Bank announcements ) Now, because deflation appears to be getting out of control, AG would be wise to get POG up again. So what if he askes them not to sell anymore Gold? They say, "Sure, we'll help you out" Then, POG soars, the EURO would be a stronger currency with a higher POG, and the Europeons come out smelling like a rose.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:56 - ID#261155)
do you have a link to site you posted at 2:34???? ^ss^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:56 - ID#174103)
Some of your question depends on your definition of inflation/deflation. I prefer to think of both as monetary events. Oft attributed to Milton Friedman, it was actually Ludwig vonMises, in Human Action, who presented an excellent case of why using the terms to simply reflect a rise or fall in the price levels of goods and services serves to confuse the debate. Current economic conditions serve perfectly well to illustrate the problem. We have a Fed that has embarked on a ( monetary ) inflation the likes of which have not been seen since WWII. Yet price levels for commodities continue to decrease, and pricing pressures are almost non-existant. The credit expansion does not always result in an increase in goods and services prices because the "new money" is not always used for investment in capital or consumer goods related production. This type of boom results in rising wages, which then result in competition for consumer goods, which always lag behind capital goods in the cycle of investment and production. It is the competition for consumer goods ( preceded by competition for capital goods ) that causes the rise in prices. We don't have rising wages. What we do have is a rise in consumption of consumer goods which is balanced by increased production off shore and paid for by easy consumer credit. Manufacturing in the US is now at a zero rate of change, if not negative. Instead, the liquidity has been siphoned off by the equities and the bond markets, which is exactly where the price levels have risen, as expected. vonMises points to the example of the credit expansion of '26 - '29 as a period of time where prices of goods and services remained stable even as one of the greatest credit expansions of all time was taking place inflating the paper markets, for basically similar reasons. However, the game can go on only insofar as the credit expansion is maintained at ever increasing levels, as folks must remain convinced that the equities/bonds, or goods/services they are paying for will continue to rise in price over and above the opportunity cost of holding the cash. Applied to the paper markets: "The characteristic mark of this phenomenon is that the increase in the quantity of money causes a fall in the demand for money. The tendency toward a fall in purchasing power as generated by the increased supply of money is intensified by the general propensity to restrict cash holdings which brings it about. Eventually, a point is reached where the prices at which people would be prepared to part with "real" goods discount to such an extent the expected fall in purchasing power that nobody has a sufficient amount of cash at hand to pay for them. The monetary system breaks down...." Although this is a simplification of the current state of affairs, ( it glosses over the effects of failing global economies on commodity prices, effects of foreign wage levels on US levels, etc. ) I think it does affirm why deflation and inflation applied to price levels, and not monetary levels is a bad operational definition. We're looking at severely inflated paper markets and we're wondering where the "inflation" is! The Austrian school folks correctly predicted '29. Their analysis may still be valid now.

It does make a case for getting the "real" goods while the getting is good!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 20:57 - ID#290213)
@yea, when Louie Rukeyser winks.....
I get this visual of me cramming a lit roman candle up his arse.....and for some strange reason he always follows the wink with a grin.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:00 - ID#206358)
Thanks..AURIC!Totally agree with the comment!

Yes,totally agree!The stock papers,stock-warrents,..all looks penny and worthless,not more than wallpaper around South east asia.The small investors are "Totally numb" about markets!They lost all their saving,morgage,asset to pay back their debts....!more,suicide and crime rates are shoot high.One thing the "YELLOW METAL" Still hold in good shape,up 60% in local currencies...and is the best realiable in this situation.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:04 - ID#153102)
Compromise is not the word I would use for the act of discarding an entire Amendment to the Constitution and then the Constitution itself. They, to whom the offices were entrusted, have conspired, a phrase you will find used unashamedly in the Declaration of Independence, to replace the government constituted by the founding documents with an alien, uncontrolled government and to deceive the people into believing otherwise. This government is a bastard with no pedigree but a sword and pistol. It is illigitimate.

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:07 - ID#260119)
Why are U.S. companies buying Canadian high tech companies at an ever increasing rate?
They are buying internet provider something or others. I think they are called IPO's. Anyhow it is cause they are so darned cheap.50% discount. Oh yeah but it is risky cause we are a third world country now. Frozen Banana republic. Gid'day.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:09 - ID#35087)
@Auric RE: Reporting Requirements
Thanks for the reply!

I'm not too concerned about this, but I'd just as soon that my wonderfully
inept and greedy government doesn't know what assets I own. It's
my understanding that any gold bullion purchased in the US must be reported
to the Feds *BY THE SELLER*. Thus, my question was really: If I
buy Bart's Mounties ( Canadian seller ) , does *he* have to report
it to *my* gov't? If so, I guess I'll keep on buying pre-1933
and live with it.

( Yes, I *am* concerned about confiscation if things get really rough -
it's happened how many times in the past? )
( And yes, I think things could easily get that bad. Sorry. )


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:10 - ID#29048)
Dollar Falls After Japanese Officials
Suggest Country Will Soon Buy Yen

Tue, 11 Aug 1998, 9:11pm EDT

Tokyo, Aug. 12 ( Bloomberg ) -- The dollar fell from close to an eight-year high against the yen after two top Japanese Finance Ministry officials said Japan is ready to support the yen. Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara and Haruhiko Kuroda, director general of the ministry's International Bureau, repeated Japan will take appropriate action to
halt the yen's relentless slide if needed. ``The comments worked, since traders had been wary of pushing up the dollar higher amid fear of intervention,'' said Yasuji Yamanaka, a foreign exchange manager at
Nikko Trust & Banking Co.

The dollar fell as low as 145.40 yen, down almost 2 yen from today's high. It was recently quoted at 146.20 yen, down from 147.26 yen in New York. Yesterday, the dollar touched an eight- year high of 147.66 yen.

Japan and the U.S. took action on June 17, a day after the yen plunged to a then eight-year low of 146.78 to the dollar, because a weaker yen could prompt China to devalue its currency, the yuan, to keep its exports competitive.

Such a devaluation could lead many other Asian countries to weaken their currencies further, sending them into another economic tailspin and shaking confidence in global financial markets.

Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa also repeated yesterday that Japan ``won't hesitate to intervene when foreign exchange rates move in a disruptive manner.''

The dollar's decline was accelerated as the currency's drop triggered automatic ``stop-loss'' orders that traders put in place to curb losses, should the currency move contrary to expectations, traders said.

In other trading, the dollar was quoted at 1.7800 marks, down from 1.7823 marks in New York yesterday. It was 1.4890 Swiss francs, down from 1.4913 Swiss francs yesterday. The British pound was quoted at $1.6310, little changed from $1.6302 in New York. The mark was traded at 82.57 yen, down from 82.61 yen in New York.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:11 - ID#24563)
For those interested, new post as of 8/11/98.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:13 - ID#267344)
wow, well put... -c

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:16 - ID#246432)
As the Yen increases against the USD

Please note that spot gold is moving up as well..up 80 cents.

joined at the hip...and yes, it is noted that the USD has been falling vis-a-vis the European currences...hmmmmm

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:17 - ID#290213)
@Mtn. Goat.............
Unlimited purchases of Austrian Philharmonikers are non-reportable to the U.S. fed. In contrast, Krugs and Maple Leafs are reportable to the U.S. fed. At least, these are the premises under which I have purchased. salud!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:19 - ID#246432) is something new

As of this momemnt, the USD is falling vis-a-vis GOLD, YEN, MARKS, POUNDS, SFRANKS...but up against the Ruble ( Poor Russia )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:19 - ID#227238)
An anecdote in response to Jin's comment below. ..... While visiting a local coin shop this afternoon, I chanced to inquire as to the level of retail business in bullion coins. For the first time ever, in recent years, the response was positive in that regard. They are now seeing a significant increase in retail buying. Y2k and other concerns were the most frequently mentioned reasons for PM purchases. ........ I could only respond by reducing their inventory more than originally intended. .....
POG at USD 200????? .... I'll mortgage everything I own and convert it to gold.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:21 - ID#206298)
There must be some intervention going on. The yen is down to 135.5

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:23 - ID#227238)
Studio R: The problem will arise when/and/or/if they are reconverted to FRN's. ...... unless sold on a black market for cash. Reportage for taxes, .... don't ya know.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:24 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Bill Buckler -- Yupper on the Asian dippies! 'Nothin good gonna happen there until the debt is gone one way or another or at the very least, the 'con' game renews over dollar problems. BIG dollar problems! And at that, ONLY idiot dippies will be frequenting those places. Bad Debt caused the problem and eliminating the debt can be the only solution

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:24 - ID#374204)
USA has proven that it will win any shooting war, sooo
second and third world gommints now engaged in economic warfare. Nobody
told them that it's even harder to best USA at this.
I fear that when IMF charade runs its course ( ) , that 2nd & 3rd
world will have nothing to lose in a shooting war. It may not start with
USA controlled gommint puppets, but by subsistence farmers putting down
their plows and picking up their guns. ( Nothing to loose )
Squirrel may yet have his day! Lots of folks in Asia/Russia, and lots
of thermonuclear weapons. I see nothing out there moving to correct this
scenario. If I were hard working and still starving, I'd do the same.
USA can't fight everybody at once.
At what price, this transitory economic victory? Hope I'm dead wrong.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:24 - ID#240288)
Mountain Goat

Agree 100% with your caution and distrust of our friendly, helpful Feds. My local coin shop accepts only cash for Gold purchases. I don't have to give any information to them. Have made purchases from Kitco with no hassles. I don't THINK Bart has turned me in to the Feds. Right Bart?...Bart??

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:25 - ID#410194)
@Gianni Dioro_A
I'm not making any personal attacks against anbody, where do you see that?

I'm asking genuine questions concerning the content of some messages posted a while ago and it can certainly be a productive thing to do on such a great forum as Kitco.

And I'm doing so very politely by focusing on the "content"!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:27 - ID#290213)
@EarlO....agree as to conversion back to FRN.
They also make good travel companions. Never leave the states without 'em. salud! G&P to YA!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:28 - ID#259400)
Why not wait until gold gets to 100 before buying? I have been predicting 100-140 gold for quite some time now.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:28 - ID#35087)
As tolerant1 would say: "A Gulp & Puff to ya"

Thanks! I'll look into Austrian Philharmonics.
( I like the idea of .9999 fine anyway... )


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:29 - ID#374204)
Never seen the Big Bear? Then maybe you've never heard this.
How does it feel?
How does it feel?
To be on you're own?
With no direction home?
A complete unknown?
Like a rollin' stone!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:29 - ID#57232)
Louis Rukhyser(sp?), miscellany
Studio R.: I have the same dim impression of him -- I cannot remember a time when he said anything bearish about the markets. Either he is a complete idiot, or he is being paid to say what he says -- or both.
I am a firm believer in that everyone should practice what he/she preaches. Hence, he should be required to show what he has invested in, and how much money he has made -- at least on a quarterly basis.

In some parts of Africa if the doctor fails to remove a certain worm completly from the patient by rolling up on a stick, and the patient dies from the allergic reaction, the doctor dies too! Forgot the name of the worm -- long and skinny. That may be a little extreme, but it sure makes competent doctors! A little more of that would make more competent investment advisors, too.

All: Just crashed my Windows 95 for the first time since installing 6 months ago. As far as I can tell, it was Norton Utilities that crashed, not the rest of it -- how odd! Perhaps Microsoft rejected it as foreign. I really miss DOS, because then I knew how to fix the problems. Anyone recall how to get safe mode? F6 or F8? Forgot to write it down. I still don't know how to remove unwanted plugins in Netscape Communicator, either.
Larryn: Interesting comment about a big buyer in the market. I don't understand what you are saying though -- if the dollar was about to take a fall, why would someone be buying dollars or treasuries? Are you thinking they will be sold short? Someone posted some days ago that someone big was betting that the Japanese Yen was about to go up. My problem is -- how do the Japanese strengthen the Yen, and stimulate their economy at the same time? If they sell US dollars, and buy Yen, that will probably make Japanese interest rates go up. I know there is something called 'sterilization' but that goes over my head.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:30 - ID#410194)

Earlier today you posted a message mentionning that the crash is on course...

8 months ago, you made a similar statement when both the S&P and the Dow were substantially lower. We all know that the stock market picked up significantly not too long after November 13th 1997 to reach numerous record highs.

Any comments? Why would the current crash scenario of yours be more valid and thruthful today compared to last fall?


Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 16:53
Puetz ( ) ID#170235:
Don't make too much out of the DJIA rally today. The Dow Transports were down -18 points, the Dow Utilities down -.14. There were more declining issues than advancing issues on all 3 markets: on the NYSE 60 more decliners, on the Amex 120 more decliners, on the OTC 360 more decliners.
The London market also broke into new lows today.

In other words, this was an extremely weak rally. Don't expect much follow-through tomorrow. It's nothing more than a bear market rally. The stock market crash is still on course.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:31 - ID#227238)
Studio R: Agreed, a fine travel companions but much too lumpy to make for a comfortable bed partner. {:- )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:32 - ID#263254)
panda...your 15:24 statement is right on...
According to the ORIGINAL intent of the impeachment articles in the constitution, Clinton is more than impeachable ( if that's possible ) . The impeachment articles are as much, if not more, about the office holders CHARACTER as they are about 'crimes'. People think that you have to have committed some crime to be impeached. NOT SO! CHARACTER MATTERS!!!!

Not so much as 25 years ago, it mattered to be accountable for your
transgressions if you were in a position of authority. For those
persons who see importance in leadership having a model for integrity,
values, and responsibility, I would say we have been bitterly disappointed, and we're not even talking about sexual transgressions, when it comes to Kliptonite.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:32 - ID#153102)
Title 26 CFR Search on District Director or Treasurer or Puerto Rico.
It is in the section on collecting FICA.

For many years people did not realize the Bankruptcy Court was not an Article III court, until the SC came right out and said so.

On what grounds do you maintain that USDC are vested with Article III power ? The judges are I know. But I believe the courts are not. I believe they are inferior courts of inferior jurisdiction. The Supreme Court stated Congress could vest inferior courts with some or all of the judicial power and that is what they have done. When the Supreme Court reviews a case heard in an inferior court, its opinion is bounded by the same limit on judicial power as bound the original court. So, you never get a hearing within constitutional protections. It is treason for the Supreme Court to construe the Constitution to permit Congress to limit the judicial power to protect the rights of citizens, but that is what they have done.

Just another possible chapter in the Book How to Have a Written Constitution and Still Rule Absolutely.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:33 - ID#35087)
@Auric RE: Bart
Thanks, brother goldbug.

I'm working up a bit more "dry powder". Then I'll contact Bart, thank
him for Kitco, and hopefully make his day a ( wee ) bit better.

Good day, Goodnight, or whatever is appropriate for the side of the planet you all hail from.

MG ( Go Gold, in a secretive sort of way )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:35 - ID#240288)
Earl @ 21:19 $200 Gold

Amen! I will do the same. Gold is one of the very few ways to immunize oneself against this raging, paper eating virus.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:35 - ID#210114)
Yen at 146.05

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:36 - ID#300202)
Mountain Goat
There wud be no requirement for Bart to report same to a foreign gov't,
nor wud there be a requirement for him to report it to the Cdn Gov't.
It is also my opinion that there wud be no requirement for him to record
ur name. If he did, then it wud only be picked up upon an audit by Rev.
Canada. There is a reciprical agreement between Rev Can & U.S. IRS.
Even if it were discovered, there wud be no benefit in terms of monetary
gain for the Cdn Gov't to report it to the IRS. Not a concern, as if it really were!!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:36 - ID#210114)
Beaming up now....
Live Long and Prosper

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:37 - ID#234218)
I truly appreciate your time and effort. I will print and reread it more than once I'm sure to fully digest it. In essence, your saying that currency is not inflated, but commodities are deflated or held in check. This is due to credit and currencies going overseas for more competitive goods. This therefore, holds inflation of commodities. Once US$ come home commodity inflation begins. Am I close?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:38 - ID#227238)
Realistic: Having now replicated your blind attack approach, try something novel. Post your own projections for the general market with sound reasons for so projecting.

It seems to me that whether you agree with his content or not, Puetz has provided his opinion along with the reasons for his conclusions.

Give it a shot. If nothing else it will be a refreshing change. But, just like in 3rd grade, no credit unless you show all your work.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:40 - ID#431263)
EIGHT ASIAN MARKETS NOW DOWN!! Any questions? Nikkei up a whole 14 points!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:41 - ID#233181)
Austrian Philharmonics
The nice thing about the philharmonic is that its face value is 2000 schillings which in todays market is about US$160. The American Eagle is US$50 while the Mapleleaf is CDN$50 or US$33.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:42 - ID#57232)
How about Clinton impeachment proceedings? Logging off for chores.
mozel: Any comments? Do you think that WJC has enough in the FBI files that he can intimidate the Republicans, and avoid impeachment? Also, what if WJC 'comes clean' on Aug 17, and admits to an affair with Monica, and in effect says he is sorry he lied to the public -- he just thought it was not important, or something to that effect. Think he can knock the wind out of Kenneth Starrs sails? Also -- any comments about how long Janet Reno can hold her breath regarding Campaigngate and assigning a new independent counsel?
Thanks in advance.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:43 - ID#227238)
Auric: Is that the same virus that also makes yer gazeefus fall off too? If so, I believe I will return for some more gold in the morning. A guy can't be too well protected against all these newfangled viruses. ...... Still 'n all, it would be nice to have a spare. .... Gazeefus that is.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:44 - ID#290213)
As you will always be one of my favorite analysts of Kitco, I must beg that you grant a single oversight of my zealous prediction of the Dow tanking to the tune of 700 points today. Yes, I have been under a lot of pressure lately and I don't feel that well either. I am rather blue....yes, that's what I am. thanksIA...G&P! I owe you one or three Cuba Libres for the forbearance! studio.steveII

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:44 - ID#431263)
NINE ASIAN MARKETS NOW DOWN!! Philippines down 4.5%!! Nikkei just went NEGATIVE!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:49 - ID#261155)
@ I think you got some of that confused
Mozel... true the Bankruptcy Court is in reality just a Administrative hearing Court or arbitration Court....and things can come out of there into District Courts...but they are held to the findings of fact found by the Bankruptcy court...But you are on ly restricted to that Court by the manner/nature of your own pleadings.....and The Supreme Court is only restricted to LOCAL LAW....if the issue was brought about LOCAL LAW, which does prevail over federal law until there is a conflict of laws.then Federal law prevails...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:49 - ID#153102)
@Buying & Selling Gold Coin
Purchases by you from a Dealer in an amount over $10K in cash or cash equivalent must be reported by the Dealer. Dealers mistakenly believe the form requires this for $10K cash cumulative. A personal check is not a cash equivalent.
Purchases by a Dealer from you are reported. Philharmonic purchases by a Dealer excepted.

golden eagles were given numismatic status by law. Dealers generally don't know this. And don't believe it.

Purchases and Sales by men and women at flea markets and like gatherings are not commerce. Not interstate commerce either. There is no statute prohibiting men and women from buying and selling gold coins, so there is no black market.

I don't understand people's reluctance to spend gold coin for things. What is money for, but to live, anyway.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:50 - ID#410194)
Earl: Trying to put things in perspective is already very refreshing I think... As for my work, I believe in keeping most of it private as the futures area is a zero-sum game and I'm very touchy about what I personally do in the markets although I admire those who have the courage to expose their decisions! But I should certainly make an effort to share more of my opinions again on things in general.

Studio R.: All right, you are forgiven and I promise not too cut and paste your prediction a year from now...and I do keep my promises, you'll see. : )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:51 - ID#426220)

Long-time observer-analyst on the Far-East, ORACLE of the ORIENT, paints a grim picture of the market sea-change he sees occurring in the entire investment world.

ORACLE believes "a secular change in all markets is inescapably materializing."

He asserts "the root source of the sea-change crystallizing in many parts of the world started about one year ago in the Far-East -- where stock markets, currencies and economies have been devastated -- with still no respite in sight." Furthermore, ORACLE foresees a protracted plunge in Asian equities.

"Not IF, but WHEN either the Honk Kong Dollar or the Japanese Yen finally craters, the other currency must necessarily be devalued immediately to protect its export industries."

"Although it is difficult to predict accurately which will be the first to succumb to market forces, this analyst believes the Chinese Yuan ( renminbi ) will be the first to throw in the towel. Interestingly, Beijing currency black markets concur with this view."

ORACLE shows a couple of depressingly interesting tables depicting the currency losses and market declines in all Asian countries since the ASIAN CRIS began one year ago. He translates the losses and declines into $US - which is indeed sad. Unfortunately, he foresees the second stage of the Asian Collapse looming on the horizon.

The entire report located at the following URL -- it is necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:52 - ID#300202)
Oh Yeah
Soon to be National Tax Collection Agency-Fed Tax. Provincial Tax, Municpal Tax & solicitations for bill collecting. Don't need to elaborate
on this nightmare. Cdn public r unawares. Watch ur ass. Canadians r
sleepwalkers ( Cherokee )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:53 - ID#30116)
If WJC gets away with this one ( the dress thing... ) , then look out below! Perjury will be OK in 'certain' circumstances, but in others it won't be ( hint; Like your tax return. ) Imperialism anybody? Oh what a slippery slope we have descended on, or is it down?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:54 - ID#227238)
JTF: L. Rukeyser's popularity and personal income are directly related to the popularity of the stock market. Should those sensitive souls committed to PBS and LR suddenly experience a reversal of personal fortune, their interest in both the stock market and LR is likely to undergoe a remarkable transformation. ..... Of the negative kind. That it will anyway, is of no consequence. There is still money to be made in the meantime.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:55 - ID#226299)
@the scene
BillD -- Just wait on the day when they arn't 'joined at the hip' anylonger! THEN you will have just a very short time to get aboard!!! Until then, the same game is playing. I.E., the dollar game. Until that begins to unravel nothing changes and gold will continue to fall with the yen. You want to see gold rise with the dollar. That'll happen as savvy investors see the fundamental changes occurring and begin transferring at least some of there investments into gold even while the dollar moves up. Ignore stocks. Just another paper that can easily have little or no market at that point and beyond. Most especially companies that have sold forward years into the future and will not benefit whatsoever from ANY rise in the POG!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:56 - ID#431263)
NIKKEI now picking up speed to the downside!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:56 - ID#290213) phillies
I also like the $160. feature....I guess phillies will soon convert into euros. When the dollar falls to the euro, hmmmmmmmmm? salud!

.9999 Pure Love!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:58 - ID#261155)
@Title 5 section 101
et with U.S. Agencies, including the Treasury...Title 26 is the Income Tax code.....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 21:59 - ID#153102)
@Studio Phillies are gold. Phillies will be Euros. Euros will be ...

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:03 - ID#290213)
Euros will be gold. and gold is love. ;^ ) ~ Esq., will Cliton be impeached?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:07 - ID#240288)
This is Cool!

You can type in a location and get a satellite photo of it. You can zoom in to see your own house in some cases! Best be burying yer Gold in the dark of the night, mateys.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:09 - ID#290213)
@EarlO and JTF..........
Lois Rukeyser is actually Phyllis Diller with a very small gazeefus and a bad make-up job.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:09 - ID#431263)
DOWN 5.74%!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:09 - ID#226299)
@the scene
StudioR -- I expect Klington will step down. Unfortunately, that also leaves AlGore as a sitting president at election time, NOT that it seems to make any difference who gets in anyway, as they all seem to be part and parcel to the Nazi New World Odor crowd. ( If elections made any difference, they would ban them! )

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:10 - ID#261155)
@title 12 section

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:10 - ID#153102)
What has been done is so monstrous you will not see it if your mind stays within the lines. You have to be open to the unthinkable to understand what has been done.

Reread my post. Inferior courts not empowered by Congress with the full judicial power, but presided over by Article III judges confirmed by the Senate. The judge is limited to the power conferred on the court in which he presides.

Have you found the title of Rubin's office in the organization which must be published by law in Title V ?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:12 - ID#240288)
Earl-- Gazeefus

Not to worry, mate. A roll of Mounties in the pocket provides full protection of one's gazeefus. Plus, the ladies think it most charming.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:12 - ID#219363)
I'd be interested in what your strategy is. Agreed, it does help to post what you're actually doing too. Saying you think gold will go up isn't nearly as convincing as saying you bought 10000 shares of such-and-such.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:14 - ID#261155)
@ I have been to the Bankruptcy Court
Mozel....I know all about that Court....yep..

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:17 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:18 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:20 - ID#219363)
Envy's ongoing...
Strategy, if you can call it that, is CASH. *grin*. Also, those worthless puts I bought the other day, well, they aren't quite as worthless today, in fact I could have sold for a profit. I anticipate a rally, but will hold on to the puts through it to see what happens on the other side.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:22 - ID#411112)
Here we go again as a dealer how many times do I have to post this about reporting requirments on

purchase and sale of Gold Coins......however
let me first say that I have never got into
Gold Stocks.....but I am hearing a lot of
talk of late by respected folks ....what you
need to be looking at right now is stocks
that are down 30/50% from their highs....the
only sector that you can find this is Gold
Stocks for what ever that is
far as reporting goes any transaction in a
calender year ( the clock starts from the
first transaction ) that excedes $10,000.00
requires an IRS form 1080....this means any
purchase over 10 Grand using either CASH,BANK
CHQ,MONEY classed as
cash....personal checks are not classed as for like transactions are not bullion for
numismatics.......and now for the big one if
you get caught up in this confiscation
crap.....first if it comes to big brother
wanting your bullion he will sign an Exective
Order and take everthing including
numismatics or anything else.....which I
doubt second could the government really go
door to door in America to get your gold,
come on get real if every government
picture,combined come to MAX 3 Million please
explain to me how 3 million folks are going
to search 250 million....just my opion

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:22 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:23 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:26 - ID#431263)
China DOWN 1.6%!! Korea DOWN 2%!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:28 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:28 - ID#20137)
Looks to me that the stock levels are getting sort of low.
Comex gold stocks for today:

1,070,359 0 0 0 0 1,070,359
106,904 0 3,534 -3,534 0 103,370
1,177,263 0 3,534 -3,534 0 1,173,729

Comex silver stocks:

40,181,321 0 0 0 0 40,181,321
38,954,323 0 0 0 0 38,954,323
79,135,644 0 0 0 0 79,135,644

2-6-98 comex eligible stocks at 123,843 ounces and we thought that was low.
COMEX Gold Warehouse Stocks

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

571,508 0 96,147 -96,147 0 475,361
148,278 0 0 0 0 148,278
719,786 0 96,147 -96,147 0 623,639

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

496,181 31,978 0 31,978 0 528,159
178,524 0 0 0 0 178,524
674,705 31,978 0 31,978 0 706,683

So what do we think is going to happen????

Yes, I still own gold.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:30 - ID#431263)

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:31 - ID#240288)
World Stocks

Major hemorrhage! Every single one is red, except for Slovakia! Isn't Groucho the president there?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:32 - ID#153102)
Now, here you have a delicate situation. You want to remove a man from office who could testify to the facts of federal drug running through Mena by Bush and money laundering through the Aransas Development Bond Authority and who knows what else. For example, is there a Leo Wanta ? Moreover, the man has dirt on everybody, a personal cadre of US Attorneys, thugs on the payroll, and surveillance capabilities beyond our imagination. He is also the leader of a party corrupted by 40 years of power, which is out of power in the place of absolute power, to wit Congress, and which has no other goal than to get back those chairmanships and control of the Rules.

I can't even put odds on it with the information at hand. You know, there used to be such a thing as crimes of moral turpitude. But that is a Christian common law concept and we are governed by godless international law ( unless we choose another venue by our conduct and declarations ) .

When I know whether or not Monica was also doing Vincent Foster and her relationship to DeeDee and whether she was sucking and puckering just for herself or for Benjamin Netanyahahoo, I will formulate odds on impeachment.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:32 - ID#219363)
Thanks GCH
For the postings.

Ladies and gentlemen, that's how fast fortunes can be made and lost.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:32 - ID#431263)
DOWN 8%!!!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:34 - ID#227238)
Realistic: "As for my work,I believe in keeping most of it private ...."

That your private work should be so stirring as to compromise its future effectiveness, we will accept at face value. A highly refined sense of public decency forbids further inquiry in that regard.

But, it should also follow that, under your protocol, personal judgment leading to ad hominem attack be afforded the same level of privacy as your work. That it does not, leads to suspicion of weakness rather than projection of strength.

Nonetheless, your badgering of Puetz is of no more use to us now, than it was, when done by others, last summer. We all possess a memory sufficient to recall events of one year ago. Anyone willing to publicly project future events and give his best reasons for so believing, has far larger cajones than the little yappers who snap at his heels. That they should continue to yap and nip, beyond logical reason, serves only to distract from more important issues.

Fortunately for you, as long as you keep your "personal work" private, you will stand little chance of being repaid in kind. But then that's a natural part of a lesser strategy.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:34 - ID#290281)
Jim Stack
Gold stocks have been hammered, at least initially, by this broad decline. But insider buying in the gold stocks is heavier than virtually any other sector on Wall Street.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:38 - ID#261155)
I did manage to get the matter moved into a District it can be done Mozel....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:39 - ID#227238)
Auric: Lemme see here; a roll of 40 Eagles is how long? Is that enough to be "charming"? ..... Manufacturing an ersatz spare can get expensive. Yes?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:46 - ID#227238)
A Goose: Smacks of subterfuge; doesn't it? A million ounces parked in the Comex for camoflage while only 100k oz are available for delivery.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:46 - ID#240288)

40 Eagles ought to charm the socks off of any respectable lady. And possibly more. Has fewer side effects than Viagra, and does not require a prescription!

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:53 - ID#153102)
You still have not got the monstrosity.
At one time the phrase "court of the United States" identified a court of full Article III, independent judicial power. There were district courts of the United States and circuit courts of the United States for appeals. Them courts are gone. Now you have United States District Courts and United States Circuit Courts of Appeal. These courts are not vested by Congress with full Article III, independent judicial power.

The only Article III court left is the Supreme Court. Likewise in every state the only consitutional court is that state's counterpart to the Supreme Court. But, since the cases that come for review to these highest courts are first heard by an inferior court not vested with Article III independent judical power, no Article III judicial process ever occurs. The court's review is limited to the context of the judicial power of the court of first hearing, whether that be a territorial, bankruptcy, claims, or distrcit court. Bottom line: no access to protections of the Constitution.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:58 - ID#287337)
Mozel - Concerning your comments on . . .
the undermining of the US constitution. If you ever get a chance you should read the constitution of the old Soviet Union. It was an admirable document, touting various human rights and guaranteeing the rule of law.

Of course we all know how much any of that was respected in the USSR. IMHO constitutions are in need of continual defense by the populace. Governments will always want to take away constitutional rights, and a constitution only remains a viable document when the people of a country vehemently and forcibly tell government usurpers NO when they try to get around its provisions.

Just my 2
- Steve

(Tue Aug 11 1998 22:58 - ID#219363)
And the absolute best reason to buy gold coins- that *ting* sound it makes when you flip it in the air.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:00 - ID#227238)
Caper: Are you implying that the Canadian Gestapo is expanding into the market for commercial bill collectors??? If so, it would seem to me to be a natural extension of developed resources. After all if force and coercion are one's stock in trade they will always be applied for maximum return on resources. ...... It also seems reasonable to anticipate that our US Gestapo will turn their attentions similarly. ....... What a sorry ass state of affairs.

Reminds me of a bumper sticker from the '70s: "Congress fighting inflation is like the mafia fighting crime". Ranks right up there with Erle's from the other nite: "If voting could change things; they'd outlaw it".

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:01 - ID#411112) little devil have been spending time at my web page or you have been

drinking from conspiracy cup.....yeah I know
we are all nuts....good post by the way

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:03 - ID#240288)
Mozel--Possibly a stupid question

In theory, could the Supreme Court rule the system of the nonindependent Judiciary unconstitutional?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:05 - ID#261155)
Actually Mozel....not all the States adopted the U.S
contstitution.and the SC has determined that you are only entitled to those U.S constitutional protections as afforded by the state in state matters...and then there is only the 1,2,4,5,8 and 14th that you are entitled to at all....only 4 or in any case....^s^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:09 - ID#153102)
Ah Ha, but I have read it. And now that you mention it, here is something to ponder. The Soviet Constitution was for a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The American Constitution was originally for a Union of Christian Republics. But, from the time of the creation of West Virginia from the territory of Virginia onward, Congress has been restructuring American government on the clause which obliges the federal to guarantee a republic form of government to each state. This was the clause invoked for Reconstruction. Now, the problem is the Constitution does not say what kind of a republic. So, with the door wide open, Congress has proceeded to replace the Christian common law Republics in the states with godless Socialist Republics. A Christian common law Republic is based on common law. A Socialist Republic is based on international, godless, martial law.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:10 - ID#287337)
Robnoel_A & Mountain Goat, etc.
just an important note. In the US, the 1986 money laundering statutes assign legal responsibility for filing a CTR to the *person making the transaction* not the dealer or banker. Under the oxymoronic Bank secrecy act, though, bankers have responsibilty for filing them.

This means the Feds can pick and chose who they'll prosecute- i.e. who they can squeeze the most out of.

Take a look at the story of Dr. Low, whose banker failed to file a CTR, but who was the one who ended up being prosecuted. Fortunately, it was brought to a reasonable satisfactory conclusion- because Low fought vigorously for his rights!


Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:15 - ID#287337)
Allen - sorry I couldn't get back . . .
to you on Rubin & resignation. Hopefully you'll pick this up from the archives. Rubin floated the idea of his resignation this spring, but Clinton lobbied him hard to stay, and didn't have much difficulty convincing him to stay. He is still not committed to stay his full term, though, and has still been hinting about leaving "to spend more time with his family" as they always say : )

Of course, it takes time to find a successor, and Rubin may find that events start to unfold too fast for him to get out while the getting is good.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:15 - ID#301318)
From China Radio: "no need to devalue"
China repeats previous statements "no need to devalue" siting its large trade surplus. Of course it sites Taiwans huge US paper debt. China says Japan and US is slow to defend the yen because they want to keep the US investments attractive. PPT? Nothing new to Kitcoits.

Repeat of this broadcast can be heard at 0400Z or 12EST ( 9PST ) on shortwave 9.560Mhz and 9.730Mhz to North America.

But do you believe? Will the US Gmnt come to China's rescue? Again?

As the Lead Zeppelin falls:
"How Many More Times, treat me the way you wanna do"

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:15 - ID#153102)
Yes. But, you know who confirms appointments to the Court. And these are the same people who want the absolute power to legislate without the restraint of an independent judiciary. And another case would have to be heard with an appropriate controversy and set of facts.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:18 - ID#261155)
The only way to get into a United States Federal Court ( Supreme Court Jurisdiction ) I think is thru a right Claimed under a Federal Grant, a Heabeas Corpus or a Civil rights Claim...all federal contracts say in the smallest fine prin today.that you agree either to Arbitration at a higher level in the agency you are dealing with, or that will accept the Jurisdiction of the Bankruptcy Court in all maters of dispute....^s^,
but there is one thing to keep in mind.....ALL Federal empoloyees ARE
law enforcement Officers....which raises the Question of being afforded
Due process in all dealings with the Chaps....^s^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:20 - ID#187109)
one strategy to stay in the game: liquidate half of your puts ( or sell puts against ) when they double. This 'puts' the money back into your account and allows you stay in the game and profit ( or lose the rest ) w/o worry or loss.

Of course, if it really breaks down you will have profited more had you kept it all.......but then again..........well, you know what I'm gonna say.......

STAY IN THE GAME MAN. This is a hard knox ( tough love ) strategy.....and it works.......uh huh.

Hit singles and doubles with the occasional triples and HOME RUN ( when the time is right ) . ( baseball talk for you cricket heads ;- ) ) That is the ONLY way to play. Unless your name is McGwire, Bonds, Arron, etc. Otherwise you look at ALL or NONE when the fat lady sings.......and it is usually NONE. There is usually no 'in the middle'.

Just a thought to a friend at kitco who ( the other day ) was asking for some 'input' regarding options/strategies. din din.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:21 - ID#424221)
Lurking no more
All : I found Kitco a few months ago in my never ending search for truth and insight into our worlds momenteous affairs.....and have been reading intently ever since. I shall lurk no more...but throw my lot with this group of concerned and courageous individuals. A bright lot you are...indeed, bright as the metal you buy. In that vein...I am seeking assistance in finding a reputable dealer from which to buy gold. I live in PA, usa. If any can offer info...I would be greatly appreciative.

I thank you in advance

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:21 - ID#219363)
Principles vs. Negotiation
I believe there-in lies the majority of the challenge for citizens of the United States. Our society has turned away from the "principles" upon which it was founded, which is fine if they were in error, but I rather liked them. I believe there was a time when most people, certainly more people, thought they were pretty nifty too.

Today it's different. Everything is about strategy, exercising leverage, trade-offs, doing what's best, as opposed to doing what's right. Nothing is sacred. Like a good salesman, politicians cut deals with other politicians, prosecutors cut deals with defenders, courts cut deals with businesses, corporations cut deals with insurance companies. Everything is negotiable. If you've got the right angle, the right money, the right connections, the right political support, the right scheduled appearances on talk shows, you've got the game. Founding fathers ? Constitution ? Who are they. We can get around that, no problem. People don't want it ? We've got a PR campaign to sway that opinion. Custody rights ? We can show she isn't a good mother, we've got witnesses. Half of everything ? Sure, you were there when he built the business, we've got a plan. Shot your parents ? No problem, man, we've got support from social services.

We are bought and sold, baby, now we're just traded.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:22 - ID#153102)
I believe all thirteen States ratified.
I also believe you are misapplying the ruling in Twining v New Jsersey. The 14th amendment was for freedmen not freemen.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:24 - ID#187109)
40 eagles long....
ain't that much......'tis the width that'll bring tears to the eyes......ohmy! sheckitout

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:26 - ID#218216)
Elliot Wave: 5 Waves down have completed! The bad news is, this is just wave 1
Look for the counter trend rally to carry to a .382 retracement at the 8716 area. Then look for the 3rd wave to carry the Dow to a 1.618 x wave 1 or 2 or even 3.618 times wave 1 in points decline. First, the buy the dip media will be laughing at all the bearish sentiment that this Wave 1 has generated. I don't think the a-b-c upmove will carry to a .618 of the first wave due to the very bearish way the first 5 waves unfolded. If it continues to decline over the next couple of days, then it will be Extending the wave 3. This is a possibility because the 3rd wave of each wave so far has extended.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:27 - ID#261155)
it might have been, but about the only Amendment that clearly states Congress has the authority to make and enforce the rights set forth in any amendment is the 14th.....sec. 5 I believe..^s^

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:27 - ID#219363)
Thanks so much for those thoughts, and thanks for all the tutorials on options, they've really helped me out. My broker thought I was a nut the other day, probably still does. I thought I'd just play with gambling money on this first transaction, so I'm up for losing it all no problem. If some of them actually make real money ( a long shot ) , then I'll consider the strategy you posted. Again, thanks.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:27 - ID#45173)
Persistent misconception
Much as the stock market had been fuelded by wishful thinking, many of my hapless friends are convinced that the government can print us out of this deflation. How does that work? Government officers stand on street corners handing out cash? The way the government gets money into circulation is by issuing debt. To expand the money supply, someone has to be willing to accept the liability of that debt and buy something with it. In a deflation, absolutely last thing on earth you want is debt. During the peak of the debt crisis in the 30s the Swiss offered -100% interest rates. If you borrowed $10,000 they'd pay you $10,000 in a year. Still, they had trouble finding takers that believed that they'd be able to break even on the deal.

Why are deflationary periods such a dark mystery? They serve to work debt out of the system. Sure, they hurt those with a lot of debt. But those with cash and certain hard assets do just fine. Their money increases in buying power. Unfortunately, the former is common and the latter rare. How can politicians take care of the debt ridden? 1 ) the peaceful way by creating government jobs, printing money and putting it in their hands as income, 2 ) preparing for war.


(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:29 - ID#153102)
Actually, anybody who has registered to vote has abandoned the Constitution and thrown their lot in with the godless, international, martial law Restructured Government of Absolute Congressional Power.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:29 - ID#93241)
mozel, all
What is law? That is the question...
I am reminded of a joke my lawyer once told me ( He charged me $200 for it, but that's another story ) .

A corporation went to hire a new CEO and assembled the directors in the boardroom to interview the candidates. The first candidate was an accountant, the second an engineer, and the third, a lawyer. First they interviewed the accountant and asked him, "What's 2+2?", to which he replied, "It was either +4 or -4, depending on whether it was a credit or a debit". "Very good", they told him and called in the next candidate, the engineer. They asked the engineer, "What's 2+2?" The engineer replied, "The square root of 16". "Very good," they told him and called in the attorney. They asked the attorney, "What's 2+2?" The attorney got up, looked around the room, checked under the table and the other furniture for any hidden microphones or tape recorders, sat back down in his chair and motioned everyone to come close. Then he whispered, "Fellas, what do you want it to be?"

Man's idea of justice ( all men included ) is a damned mirage.

Law, my friends, is the absence of love.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:40 - ID#153102)
Quite so. But, who were the newly created "citizens of the United States" ? The legislation enacted by the power granted in the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments is for them.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:43 - ID#45173)
In the late 1970s, the USA imported inflation from the Mideast (expensive oil)
In the late 90s the USA imports deflation from Asia ( cheap goods ) . Such as cars. Ford today announced that they are dropping the prices of 1999 cars .03% from 1998. The first price decrease in 30 years.

Deflation changes the way you think.

Cars may be cheaper later. I'll wait. So will houses. I'll wait. So will washing machines, house painting, bagels, haircuts, trial lawyers, telephone service, insurance, etc., etc. I'll wait.

So will stocks. I'll wait.

Last one out of the stock market, please turn off the lights.


Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:44 - ID#261187)
Regulations & Mounties
Mountain Goat: In Canada there are no reporting requirements for gold purchases or sales.

I believe in the US the requirement is only when you sell gold so the government get their share of your gain. This is actually a good thing lately since you should have no problem proving you've taken a tax-deductible loss on your short term investment.

I'm quite sure that the rules apply to bullion dealers who may purchase gold but not to jewelry manufacturers. If so, then there's a strong case for buying pure ( 99.9+ ) gold, like the Maples. Anyone in the jewelry industry will be more than happy to take them off your hands at the spot bid price. Jewelers would be less enthusiastic to buy your Eagles not only because the law forbids melting down U.S. coinage, but also because 22K gold is impractical for making new jewelry. But it's OK to melt the Maples in the U.S. or anywhere outside of Canada.

Please note that this statement has been made only as a blatant plug to buy Canadian products and should not be interpreted as an encouragement to sidestep U.S. reporting requirements.

WHILE ON THE TOPIC ON MELTING COINS... The Royal Canadian Mint has so far redeemed 7,500 of the Mounties at the $310 buy back price. They were all destroyed by the Mint bringing the total circulation down to 22,500. We now have less than 1500 available for sale. Since Kitco are not coin dealers we don't expect to be selling them once availability from the Mint has dried up. Once again, a blatant plug.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:45 - ID#153102)
Given the facts of person and subject matter according to which a court takes jurisdiction, I can answer the question what is law by at least putting you in the right part of the library. But, to say what is love is the transcendant work of poets, songwrites, saints, and the like.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:47 - ID#261155)
@ Strat...the law
has come down to us from when we lived in tribes, til today...we even have some of the same principles of law the Romans used..but then as now might is still right and cunning is it's consort....and the law today, is but a very thin glove over the fist of might!!!we are supposed to have the rule of law...not that of WJC, but the laws have been so abridged and obscured and really hidden from the mainstream public...and only the members of the China Wall ( the bar association ) are privy to it's machinations....It was Andy Jackson who turned the politicians loose on us when he got the U.S. Supreme Court barred from the AUTOMATICE REVEUE of all Congressional acts before they became law that has made us victims of mozels nitemares....

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:50 - ID#190411)
It's just grand that you are back and in form.
A while back you posted a source for Common Law. A mister R.D.J. Botty.
Do you still recommend his materials for people ignorant of the law, such as me?
If you do, perhaps you could post the URL for the Kitcoites that could use this.

Also, we haven't heard from SDR'er in a while, Perhaps he's digging up more again.

Earl, --- cookin' again.

Great posts gentlemen.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:51 - ID#45173)
It's your site. You dont have to apologise for selling gold coins. How much are those Mounties these days? I hear they're beautiful.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:53 - ID#411198)
No Rights
I thought many would enjoy

The following was written by State Representative Mitchell Kaye from Cobb
County, GA.

We, the sensible people of the United States,in an attempt to help everyone
get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid any more riots, keep
our nation safe, promote positive behavior and secure the blessings of
debt-free liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great grandchildren,
hereby try one more time to ordain and establish some common sense
guidelines for the terminally whiny,guilt-ridden, delusional and other
liberal, bedwetters. We hold these truths to be self-evident: that a whole
lot of people were confused by the Bill of Rights and are so dim that they
require a Bill of No Rights.


ARTICLE I: You do not have the right to a new car, big screen TV or any
other form of wealth. More power to you if you can legally acquire them,
but no one is guaranteeing anything.

ARTICLE II: You do not have the right to never be offended. This country is
based on freedom, and that means freedom for everyone -not just you! You
may leave the room, turn the channel, express a different opinion, etc.,
but the world is full of idiots, and probably always will be.

ARTICLE III: You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a
screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful, do not expect the tool
manufacturer to make you and all your relatives independently wealthy.

ARTICLE IV: You do not have the right to free food and housing. Americans
are the most charitable people to be found, and will gladly help anyone in
need, but we are quickly growing weary of subsidizing generation after
generation of professional couch potatoes who achieve nothing more than the
creation of another generation of professional couch potatoes.

ARTICLE V: You do not have the right to free health care. That would be
nice, but from the looks of public housing, we're just not interested in
health care.

ARTICLE VI: You do not have the right to physically harm other people. If
you kidnap, rape, intentionally maim or kill someone, don't be surprised if
the rest of us want to see you fry in the electric chair.

ARTICLE VII: You do not have the right to the possessions of others. If you
rob, cheat or coerce away the goods or services of other citizens, don't be
surprised if the rest of us get together and lock you away in a place where
you still won't have the right to a big-screen color TV or a life of leisure.

ARTICLE VIII: You don't have the right to demand that our children risk
their lives in foreign wars to soothe your aching conscience. We hate
oppressive governments and won't lift a finger to stop you from going to
fight if you'd like. However, we do not enjoy parenting the entire world
and do not want to spend so much of our time battling each and every little
tyrant with a military uniform and a funny hat.

ARTICLE IX: You don't have the right to a job. All of us sure want all of
you to have one, and will gladly help you along in hard times, but we
expect you to take advantage of the opportunities of education and
vocational training laid before you to make yourself useful.

ARTICLE X: You do not have the right to happiness. Being an American means
that you have the right to pursue happiness - which by the way, is a lot
easier if you are unencumbered by an overabundance of idiotic laws created
by those of you who were confused by the Bill of Rights.



(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:53 - ID#93241)
mozel, Dave
mozel, you sound like the lawyers I used to work for...

Dave, there's a line in the Tao ( ancient Chinese text ) ...The more laws there are, the more lawlessness there is.

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:57 - ID#288399)
If one can hold onto one's cash, it's better to wait to buy things. But what if one's salary is lower later ( like as in laid off ) , or if interest rates become relatively "higher" ( if interest rates stay fixed while cost of everything else falls ) . Deflation really can only run riot if everyone is losing money somehow, both the borrowers and the creditors. Big-time headache, no?

(Tue Aug 11 1998 23:58 - ID#93199)
Beyond Ugly Fidelity Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

I'm beginning to believe Fidelity is dealing from the bottom
of the deck on their Net Asset Value pricing!
Too often they just don't correlate to the Market!

FSAGX -5.2% FDPMX -5.3%