Shanghai hasn't been updated for over half an hour!! Market about to shut down perhaps?

The going rate for Bullion coins is 4.7% over spot. RJ at Monex 800-949-4653 #2262 and Jefferson Coins at 800-593-2585 have the best prices in the US. Using Kitco Asia spot for Gold at $284 an oz. http://www.kitconet.com/gold.live.html The Phillies should come in around $297.35 plus S&H.

Gold price steadies but
outlook remains bleak

By Stephen Wyatt

Gold managed to scramble up from near its 18-year lows in
trading late last week but remained under constant pressure
from the weak yen, slumping Indian rupee, rising concern
that China could devalue the yuan and renewed fears of
central bank selling.

It was the sharply weaker yen that initially knocked the
gold market to its lowest level for seven months. A weaker
yen prompted fears of a further slowdown in demand for
gold from Asia.

Already gold demand has slumped in east Asia, a region
that traditionally consumes about 20 per cent of the world's
gold.

Taiwan Finance Ministry figures released last week
showed a 45.3 per cent collapse in Taiwanese bullion
demand in the first seven months of this year, with gold
imports in July 83 per cent lower than in July last year.

The same story applies to Japan. Japanese gold imports for
the first six months of the year totalled 33.16 tonnes,
compared with 70.92 tonnes for the corresponding period
last year, a fall of 52 per cent year-on-year.

The yen did recover, however, from its eight-year lows, and
so did gold. But just.

After falling to within $US4/oz of its 18-year lows of
$US278 in January, it finished the week trading around
$US284/oz. A very dead cat type bounce.

One thing going for gold at the moment is that it has fallen
so far so fast and the market is short. In other words, gold's
market internals are such that, despite negative
fundamentals, its downward momentum has now slowed.

"The fact that the funds are already very short suggests
that the downside from here should be limited," said Mr
Angus MacMillan, research manager at Billiton Metals, a
London-based metals trading group.

Also, the US dollar gold price is below marginal cost, so
producers are much less willing to forward sell gold at
current US dollar price levels.

But Mr MacMillan added that "equally, there appears to be
little upside potential in the near term".

Certainly, analysts' projections that the yen is on its way to
150 to the US dollar, rather than 140, is a negative for
gold.

So is the fall in the Indian rupee. Last week, it fell to a
historic low against the US dollar of 43.35 rupee. And
because India is the world's biggest consumer of gold, this
is a major factor limiting gold's upside.

Central banks, the holders of a third of the gold ever mined
and the major factor behind the 33 per cent fall in the US
dollar gold price over the past two years, are also back in
the news.

Rumours that Venezuela's central bank ( later denied by the
bank ) had sold 1.66 million ounces of gold were followed by
confirmed reports that the National Bank of Poland had
bought gold. This purchase was confirmed but quantities
were not.

The World Gold Council said Polish reserves rose by 2.4
million ounces ( 74.5 tonnes ) in May. But this did little to
push gold prices higher.

On Friday, Swiss sources were saying that Russia would be
selling 200 tonnes ( a gold swap ) of gold early this week.
Russia holds 501 tonnes of gold.

"Given Russia's current economic and currency fragility, a
swap could be justified on the basis of dire need for hard
currency," said Mr Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst
with the Macquarie Bank group.

"But who knows," said Mr Ted Arnold, of Merrill Lynch,
who recently forecast gold over the next five years to trade
a range between $US200/oz and $US300/oz.

Mr Naqvi said: "The key central bank issue remains the
gold reserves of EMU members and the level of control the
European Central Bank adopts."

The ECB is not expected to address this issue until October
at the earliest.

To date, the ECB has said that gold will comprise 15 per
cent of its total reserves. This puts the ECB's initial gold
holdings at 5.925 billion ECUs or, if gold is valued at say
$US250/oz, 812 tonnes of gold. This leaves 11,806 tonnes in
EMU-member central bank vaults. It is a lot of gold that
has a massive opportunity cost.

If gold is now more of a commodity than a currency, if it is
de-monetising like silver did this time last century, then this
central bank gold will eventually drip out of central bank
vaults, just as silver did.

14,700!!

DOWN 3% to 14,670!

Look out thin air below both the Canadian and Australian markets and it would not break my heart to see both of them crash and burn.Both these Countries rely heavily on commodities and in both cases their Governments saw fit to sell off their Gold reserves. A true measure of business acumen!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thailand and South Korean markets are up!

They found that baloonist guy, Steve Fossett, and he's okay!

Thousands and thousands turned out for the anniversary of Elvis's death!

Searle posted the URL to these on SI earlier today: http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartsWeekly/00gold.html Thanks APH for update on Sunday! Sheller also suggests that $276 must hold as do a whole bunch of us. My feeling is that if it doesn't, all is not lost as Mike fears. In that case we could still see a sharp spike bottom that puts in the final lows. Obviously it would be a happier situation for most if this does not occur, but instead the final low is put in via a neat double bottom. We shall soon see. Nytol time. ( Just kidding - Even the toothpicks are breaking at this point. ) Yawn. ZZZzzzzz.

I remember reading a few posts from "JEIL", a while back, and what
his predictions were for gold, and the markets. Can anybody remember
what he said, and if so, could you post a brief summary.
THANK YOU KINDLY.

Sorry Rhody! Your analysis of lease rates on Sunday was most appreciated. I believe it was at about 6:55 yesterday morn. I believe that someone should re-post that short analysis for everyone sometime on Monday morning! Sorry RJ ( for stealing from your copywrited 'I believe' posts of a year ago! )

Just finished it. Can't recall who mentioned it, but thank you for doing so.

You'd think with a Presidential Testimony, US Embassy bombings with warnings for international travels, Russia imploding, a devastating flood in China, Japan and China Markets in freefall, and US Markets shakey, we would not be worrying about new lows for Gold. It just doesn't make sense.

KOREA just went RED!! NEGATIVO!!

Nobody really knows what we are about to witness...nobody...but, for sure...all the bases have been covered...

Just happened to check KITCO before bed and noticed your post.

My projections are at:

www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

For some reason when I put the full URL KITCO won't let my message come up so you will need to type in the address manually to get to my site.

I think the S&P500 will lose 35% from peak into year end.

I still have not worked out a projection on gold or silver.

My Homestake projection is for a serious decline until October.

I just emptied my brokerage account of cash. When I get the funds I am going to put it into physical cash. Asia is spreading fast and I would
not put it past world Governments to "ban together" to srews us. I still see deflation as the main problem. I would be really suprised if they can blow this thing up again. I think I will also stock up on food and paper gold ( standard form #1 ) A person has to remain civilized. ( g )
My bottom is my one soft spot.

7.17%!!

Bid 255 ask 245
Nicodemus{ ; )

HOLIDAY

of deceipt, treason, murder, and its ability to know our affairs even better than we know them and to sell us out to our enemies - I may be redundant here but it bears repeating...
That underestimation is our worst enemy.
I believe GOLD WILL SINK THIS MONDAY as Klinton convinces the American people that everything is fine. It ( since I believe Klinton to be the anti-christ or close to it ) is an accomplished and successful lier.

I spoke with my Dad tonight - he is in his eighties. He does not like Klinton and does not trust the government. But he expressed that this sex scandal is getting very tiresome - all the media speculating endlessly and tomorrow it will be worse. He, along with most Americans, has not seen behind this smokescreen put up by BOTH parties to hide the treasonous activities of the Klinton administration AND the Republicans ( for aiding and abetting those activities ) .

I do not want to go to war. I wish and hope our votes could prevent that.
But I fear our course has been set - events are unfolding - actions have been taken that have commited us to civil war. Klinton and the government is counting on such a scenario to give it cause to further grind us down with its iron heel. And Klinton is implementing plan B and C to make sure we are beaten. If his forces fail, then Russia and China and perhaps the Islamic nations will succeed. That is his goal. To crush freedom and democracy. The demise of America ( not the same entity as the US Gov't ) and the extinguishing of the light of liberty here will bode ill for free peoples throughout the world.
As much as folks in Australia and New Zealand may feel removed from our travails here. Their freedoms are at risk - for we true Americans will not be able to stand at their side. We will be too involved with our own survival. This revolution is coming. Klinton will see to it - because he thinks he will win.

I hope Klinton and the gov't continue to underestimate us.

Namast

Yupper! It is closed! But Shanghai is open and plunging like a rock! NOW DOWN 7.75%!!

NIKKEI COMING BACK TO 14,750!!

Nasdaq 100 futures DOWN 22.00!!

Something must have happened in China today, something besides the flooding ( though flooding does now jeopardize a major industrial area ) . I've been looking around, but I can't find anything to justify a loss of 8 cents on the dollar for the exchange.

DOWN 40 on GLOBEX!! CONTAGION BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO LATIN AMERICA?

I doubt anyone in SHANGHAI would trade places with the Pres of the United States today

Brother John,

Bloops posted a strange messege to me - "BUT OUT".
I kindly asked him to translate this phrase, but
he refuses to cooperate. Could you please do it
for me, brother? Is is good phrase or is it bad one?
If it is bad one, how bad is it? I hope it is good
phrase, otherwise I must declare Second Ziva War
on him...My MIGs are standing by...fully loaded...

Your brother and follower, Oris.

Mexico is in North America

It's a phrase that means "don't take part in the discussion because it didn't concern you", basically. It's not nice, but it's not really bad either. Sort of on the order of "Shut up", "Get lost", or "Get out of my face". American slang ...

Physically, ja! Culturally, nein!

it was a vast right wing conspiracy which lead to fellatio in the ovum office...quite frankly it would appear that there are items that Clintler will be asked during his moments of enlightenment in front of the grand jury which are not being covered in the general media, which has let all of America down for quite some timehe can and will, be asked any questions in front of the grand jury, covering any topic they wish and I personally do not think they will dwell on fellationor the antics which culminated in a stain on a dress

Anyway my frienda good evening to you and yours and the kitco late night clan

Thank you very much. I need to learn more
slang...Still, it makes me sad that this
was not a nice phrase...

It wasn't that bad of a phrase. I'm sure Blooper will get on here and say it to me since I got involved and told you what it meant *grin*.

To Reform Congress, Reform the Dollar

Copyright  1998 by Freemarket Gold & Money Report. All Rights Reserved.

Ironically, even though Gold redeemability was not restored, much of our Gold stock has disappeared. The 22,100 tonnes held in May 1948 has been drastically reduced to 8,100 tonnes today. This dissipation happened in a way that Rep. Buffett would have found alarming because he understood irredeemable currency posed a threat that could deplete American wealth.
The "gold is not subject to demand by American citizens. It could all be shipped out of this country without the people having any chance to prevent it."

The reduction of the Gold stock robbed the American people. They created the wealth that built it, but they were helpless from stopping its dispersal. Nevertheless, what remains is still the world's largest hoard of Gold, and it can be put to effective use by reestablishing Dollar redeemability into Gold.

What motivated Rep. Buffett? Although it may be hard to understand or accept in today's environment of cynicism and flagrant self-interest, his words reveal him to be a true statesman,whose aim was to serve his country. In one introspective moment, he provides a frank and candid personal assessment.

Rep. Buffett May 4, 1948.The Commercial and Financial Chronicle,

"Most opponents of free coinage of gold admit that restoration is essential, but claim the time is not propitious. Some argue that there would be a scramble for gold and our enormous gold reserves would soon be exhausted."

"Actually, this argument simply points up the case. If there is so little confidence in our currency that restoration of gold coin would cause our gold stocks to disappear, then we must act promptly."

"The taxpayer is completely out-matched in such an unequal contest. Always heretofore he possessed an equalizer. If government finances weren't run according to his idea of soundness he had an individual right to protect himself by obtaining gold."
http://www.goldmoney.com/fgmr/buffett.htm

If Bloops says it to you, I will say it to him...

Uncle Cheesehead, tell me a story about how the market is going to crash and my out-of-the-money puts are going to pay off really big before they expire next year. I want a new motorcycle.

Sure hope that "The Warrior Princess" is not piloting one of the MIGs, please have mercy on our souls.

Grizz
the effect of a weakened US on Pacific spheres of influence has not been underestimated by mois. However, NZ's sovereign right to declare itself nuclear-free has already resulted in our being accorded "the bum's rush" by our one time allies and oft-times brothers-in-arms, the US. When NZ loses trade access through tariff-barrier "erections" while that freedom-loving gerontocracy, China is afforded Most Favoured Nation Status, the internationally-hazardous nature of Clinton's pecadillos escapes most of my countrymen.

Envy
Oris has few faults. One is overestimating the capacity for understanding subtlety amongst your confreres. Perhaps you jumped in where you were not wanted, now, what was that expression again? ( said with kindness and wit;- ) )

Crusty
You call that a try?

for Brother Oris
Envy means "butt out" .. this is different..

"but out" is a mystery to me too... "but" I dont
think Bloops if RED .. Maybe fellow traveller ..
I became suspicious of him because of MIG hatred ..
As you know all pinkos hate MIGS.
Suspect "but out" is code.
" St Johns wart " is too ..
Im ON IT .. dont worry.

I was just looking at my globe and re reading the latest Privateer.
If one looks at the total land mass of the affected countries I start
to get nervous. Right now it is affecting Russia, China, India, Pakistan,Thailand, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Japan. If you look at Mexico and Canada squeezing the USA and then throw in the oil producing counties with the low oil price I am getting really concerned! I fear this is just the start. I think I will start a log book of my thoughts as this mess progress's to the end. Could be my kids might remember me to be a little less paranoid if they were to read it in the future ( if we have one )

http://www.slanguage.com/ give it time to load, I think you will find it useful...and a gulp to ya...

Salty ..
If its on the scoreboard .. its a try ..

What I like about Rugby is .. nobody understands
the rules eggzactly .. NOBODY .. That's what makes
it so eggsiting.

Oh, that's right, I stand corrected, I was completely wrong on that one.

crusty
correctomundo, both that it was a try and that noone understands the rules of football. The All Blacks have not lost 4 tests in a row since 1946 or something ridikilous.
With the coaltion gobmint in tatters ( expect an Election to be called within the month ) the kiwi$ heading down the gurgler and the All Blacks defeat, no wonder my Russian Blue Cat bit BJ on the cheek.

I have received a long letter from my bank answering my questions on Y2K. When I asked my "new" bank manager about Y2K, he let out an hebephrenic giggle that was most disconcerting.

Brabo Holdings, purveyors of fine New Zealand Gold,is taking shape, details posted soon where the oughta be.

Thank you, my brothers,
I suspected my opponent screwed up with spelling,
and was afraid of the worse case scenario...
Only my respect to my brothers keeps me at
this night hour from dumping the heavy load
of nuclear sh*t from my MIGs on the long suffering
head of this market expert...I'll go to bed now.
Good night or good morning to my brothers, whatever
applies depending on location.

China still down 8 percent ( weird ) seems to be going lower.
France and Germany opened down.

strat
now i see you mentioned Fess Parker, I mean Dan'l Boon. Please, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that hero of the Alamo a reluctant senator?
A spin or two ago Earl said that noone should become a congressman who doesn't want to be. Actually Earl said it with much more panache. I was wondering whether there have been any reluctant merkin senators since.

I dunno whether old beaver skullcap was a congressman or a senator, but as I recall he didn't want to be there. Of course a lote of folk didn't want to be at the Alamo either, but that's a different story.

For Salty ..

I have always been fascinated the way those Maori
warriors learned all their War Chants from the ALL
BLACKS.. Its a real RUGBY CULTURE.
Where is "Green Dolphin Street" anyway ??

Aurator- I think you may be confusing one coon clad American with another. Mr. David ( Davy ) Crockett was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives and died at the Alamo as well as Mr. Boone.

Just back from the mine, closing down and selling equipment, soon to be ex-Auproducer

"Analysts attributed the drop to economic woes in Asia and Russia along with the weak yen. At 11:58 a.m. today in Tokyo, the Japanese currency was traded at 146.27. Analysts said the Japanese and the global financial markets are locked in a vicious circle, with neither able to help the other out. [...] The problems overseas conversely affected Japanese markets, causing further falls in the value of the yen and stock prices. "We have not seen the bottom yet," said an analyst at a leading securities company, suggesting stock prices will fall further."

http://www.asahi.com/english/enews/enews.html#enews_16490

China may be the new target after the conneries that HK did last Friday. They are both joined at the hip aren't they?

@Chas, I'd appreciate you looking into that Silver Goblet for me.

@Oris, Don't mind Blooper, he just gets a bit emotional at times.

@all, I'm sure glad I own gold on a night like this.

is 14,312, so even though it isn't comfortable under 15,000, 14,312 is where the floor is.

Auproducer
yes, thanks for the correction. I has been a long time, memory fades..and the fingers long to dash across the keyboard...

Funny how we all celebrate major defeats and somehow turn disaster into victory in our minds. From the Alamo to Dunkirk.

Just like King Alfred burning the cakes, I's burning the steaks.

looking forward to those steinie futures being cashed...

AP reports Rouble to be devalued from 6.3 to 9.5.

France -33.56 -0.84%, Germany -105.16 -1.93%, Switzerland -136.8 -1.78%

Denmark -0.50 -0.23%

Auric, do you have a link for that ?

Israel -2.72 -0.86%, Turkey -176.10 -5.25%

Envy-- Click on the 02:49 story. http://www.newsday.com/ap/topnewsx.htm

Thanks for the link - said that there is a moratorium of 90-days on paying foreign debt too. What do you make of all that, how will it affect things this week ?

Japan's finance minister is presently discussing what may be "unavoidable" Japanese bank failures with the Japanese parliment, according to Reuters.
This ought to drop markets all over the planet.

Fox Wire
8/17/98 AP


Russia devalues ruble
2.36 a.m. ET ( 637 GMT ) August 17, 1998
MOSCOW ( AP )  After weeks of financial turmoil, Russia announced today a sharp devaluation of the shaky national currency, the ruble.

The Central Bank lowered the minimum exchange rate from about 6.3 to the dollar to 9.5 to the dollar, effective immediately, the Interfax news agency reported.

The government also imposed a 90-day moratorium on the payment of ruble-denominated foreign debt and a rescheduling of payments on government treasury bills.

Central Bank chairman Sergei Dubinin said the government actions are designed to help Russian citizens and domestic producers. He said it would hurt "financial speculators'' who have been fleeing Russian markets for months, Interfax said.

Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov said the devaluation would help the government pay out wages overdue for months and spur investment in Russian industry.

A ruble devaluation has been widely rumored, in part because the government faces heavy debt payments in coming days and weeks.

Would think Germany is a big loser with all their exposure to Russian debt. This is another case of the currency flu, which continues its spread around the world. Not sure how it will affect Gold in the near term.

"Reports: Suspect confesses to plotting embassy bombings, links Saudi exile to blasts"

http://cnn.com/WORLD/africa/9808/17/embassy.bombings.01/index.html

Financial speculators, sheesh. They love ya when they love ya, but they sure hate ya when they hate ya.

Everything headed down-

Austria -17.27 -1.26%
Denmark -4.10 -1.86%
Finland -100.78 -2.07%
France +4.79 +0.12%
Germany -106.19 -1.95%
Netherlands -23.13 -2.00%
Switzerland -134.0 -1.75%
Turkey -104.81 -3.13%
Israel -4.15 -1.31%
South Africa -152.6 -2.43%

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0u.htm

World Markets Show Regionalization -- Not Globalization

Last week, the world once again focused on the stock markets. All of the
world's markets shuddered under the stress of the ongoing Russo-Asian
financial crisis, and everyone was asking three questions: Would the break
in the Russian markets destroy what is left of the Russian financial
system? Was there any bottom under the Asian markets? Were the American
stock markets about to plunge, turning a regional crisis into a global one?
We never give stock market advice, since if we were that good, we would not
have to work for a living. However, there is an emerging pattern in the
global markets, revealing important underlying geopolitical trends that
need to be taken very seriously.

There is a great deal of talk about the globalization of the world
financial markets. Our financial markets are certainly global in scope and
there are certainly powerful interactions taking place between financial
markets. But there has not been a homogenization of international markets.
Quite the contrary, markets have behaved in a regional rather than a global
manner. The Hong Kong and Tokyo markets, for example, have tended to
resemble each other in the past year and have differed markedly from the
U.S. market. Indeed, over the last year, U.S. indices have behaved with an
extraordinary indifference to Asian markets, which tended to move together.
European markets have also tended to follow their own course, although with
much greater internal divergence than in U.S. or Asian indices. Yet, on
the whole, what we have seen is a pattern of intensifying regional
synchronization of markets along with growing interregional divergence.

The world appears to us less as a singular interdependency than as three
regional blocs, each driven by internal factors and each irritating the
others, without actually definitively influencing the others' courses. The
United States, East and Southeast Asia, and the European Union are
increasingly self-defined entities, following their own courses of
development. The assumption that an Asian meltdown would inevitably drag
the American boom down with it certainly hasn't taken place as yet. Nearly
a year into the Asian meltdown, the NASDAQ stands 250 points and 16 percent
above where it was a year ago, even after falling about 200 points in the
recent sell-off. Now, there is no reason to assume that the U.S. markets
won't fall. The current expansion is about six years old, and one of the
signs of a healthy economy is its ability to generate periodic recessions
to cull the weak. But if the U.S. market sells off and if the U.S. economy
goes into recession, it will have more to do with the internal dynamics of
the American economy than with the effects of the Asian crisis. For what
little it's worth, we do not see the U.S. economy weakening as yet, and
are not convinced that the current expansion is over.

Let us reiterate the view we expressed several years ago in our 1995-2005
Decade Forecast:


"The decade 1995-2005 will be seen as a golden age, comparable to the last
century's turn--and for many of the same reasons. However, obviously not
all nations will benefit equally:

The United States is by far in the best financial and demographic position
to capitalize on this tendency. Interestingly, the national deficit, which
is declining as a proportion of GDP, has not had the effect feared. The
primary problem of the deficit--that it crowds out private borrowers and
raises interest rates--has simply not happened and it will not happen.
What it has done is cripple the Federal government's ability to finance new
social initiatives. The key structural issue -- the U.S. deficit with East
Asia -- is primarily a political rather than economic problem, and will be
dealt with as such.

The European Union's enjoyment of this period will be limited somewhat by
Germany's ongoing digestive problems--absorbing the old East Germany--and
an inability to create a Monetary Union. On the one hand, the reluctance
of major powers to abdicate sovereignty to Brussels makes negotiations
difficult and subject to collapse and breakdown. On the other hand, the
fact that the EU contains both net creditor and debtor nations makes the
creation of a single, integrated fiscal policy--the precondition for
monetary union--difficult to imagine. The idea that Greece or Portugal and
Norway or the Netherlands will share fiscal strategies is a bit difficult
to imagine. As the EMU frays, European integration in general will be
questioned. The great reversal of 1997 will resonate through the next
decade.

Japan will share least in the new prosperity. The follies of the 1980s,
when Japanese corporations sacrificed profits to market share in order to
maintain cash flow and pay enormous debt service, will continue to haunt
Japan. Promises of recovery will come and pass away. In the meantime,
pressures on Japan from other East and Southeast Asian economies will
whittle away at Japan's comparative advantage, while the U.S. will continue
to dominate in the areas of technical innovation. Increased unemployment,
unfulfilled promises of prosperity, a sense of opportunities missed, will
increase social instability in Japan. To understand Japan in the next
decade, look at Japan during the 1920s, rather than at Japan in the 1980s.

We strongly feel that the last decade's surge in East Asian economies will
be peaking early during the 1996-97 cycle. Korea and Taiwan are both
reaching climaxes, marked by surplus cash fleeing the country, searching
for safe havens. The current Korean investment boom, followed closely by
Taiwan's, represents a peaking--followed by substantial economic problems.
China itself is facing deep structural problems, particularly a shortage of
skilled labor and falling rates of return on investments. We find it
extremely unlikely, political considerations not withstanding, that China's
current growth spurt will continue."


The general global prosperity is, in fact, intact. Even Asia's financial
crisis has not wiped away a generation's economic development. Asia is
surely better off today than it was in 1960. But beneath the general
economic well being, what we are observing is a profound regional
divergence that will have tremendous political consequences in the years to
come. Asia's structural weakness makes it increasingly difficult for it to
survive in a world dominated by the dollar as the basic denominator in
international trade. The inability of Europe to synchronize its markets,
while distinguishing it from other regions, means that its hopes for
integration will remain thwarted. Most important, the continuing increase
in American economic power, coupled with unchallenged American military
power, means that the United States is entering the 21st Century in
extraordinarily good shape. Indeed, we would argue that the United States
has become the center of gravity of the international system.

This leaves Asia as the increasingly frustrated afterthought. What will
drive Asia in the next months and years is a technical matter: the
difficulty of maintaining inter-Asian trade denominated in dollars. The
sheer scarcity of dollars will unnecessarily depress regional trade. The
smaller Asian powers will demand the creation of a regional reserve
currency that would facilitate trade and the creation of lending facilities
without dependency on the U.S.. The only currency that can serve this
cause is the yen. Japan will resist this, since it is highly dependent on
U.S. dollar-denominated trade, and has much to lose from decoupling from
the dollar.

However, Japan will fail to solve its internal economic problems. It will
therefore become less competitive in the United States because of the
effects of under-investment and under-capitalization. In due course, and
rather quickly at that, Japan will succumb to the vision of leaders like
Mahatir of Malaysia, who has seen this unfolding process more clearly than
most. The consequences of this move, while unintended, will be enormous,
creating a regional bloc whose interests are inherently opposed to those of
the United States. The next Japanese election will inevitably turn on
technical issues such as the creation of an Asian-Yen, which in turn will
have profound, and undiscussed, political consequences.

In the meantime, a vaguely coherent Europe will continue to try to form a
single currency in spite of the fact that the business cycles of its member
states haven't been synchronized. One is reminded of a similar bloc of
states attempting to federalize their economies through a single currency,
in spite of the fact that their economies were fundamentally different and
out of synch with each other. The inevitable result was that the American
South tried to secede and was defeated. As a result, it suffered nearly a
century of relative poverty at the hands of fiscal and monetary policies
that were indifferent to its needs.

Of course, there is no central force that will compel European states to
remain in the Union when monetary policy wreaks havoc on their national
economies. It is difficult to imagine an Abraham Lincoln arising among the
Brussels bureaucrats. An integrated Europe achieved without bloodshed
would mean that various European nations would voluntarily permit
centralized monetary and fiscal policies to wreak havoc on them, for the
sake of the principle of European integration. An economy that can't even
synchronize the British and German stock markets isn't going to go very far
except at the point of a gun.

Thus, when we look at the world's stock markets, we see things differently
than most. We see a growing regionalism of three blocs: East Asia, North
America, Europe. We see East Asia's stock markets pointing toward an
abandonment of the current international monetary system out of self-
defense. We see Europe's stock markets pointing to an inherent inability
of the Europeans to create an integrated European economy, and we therefore
anticipate endless conflicts in a state without a nation and a government
without power. And we continue to see the United States remaining
profoundly unaffected by the other regions, rumbling through its business
cycles like a powerful economic locomotive.

We never predict the market. But sometimes the market points in directions
of more lasting significance than tomorrow's market close. These markets
are pointing us toward a new world that will be defined less by
globalization than by regionalization. And that will be a very different
world than most expected just a few years ago.

end of this year? The filthy stench has been lingering over the whole nation long enough! I'm not refering to just the ML smoke screan.
Nicodemus....

World Markets Show Regionalization -- Not Globalization

Last week, the world once again focused on the stock markets. All of the
world's markets shuddered under the stress of the ongoing Russo-Asian
financial crisis, and everyone was asking three questions: Would the break
in the Russian markets destroy what is left of the Russian financial
system? Was there any bottom under the Asian markets? Were the American
stock markets about to plunge, turning a regional crisis into a global one?
We never give stock market advice, since if we were that good, we would not
have to work for a living. However, there is an emerging pattern in the
global markets, revealing important underlying geopolitical trends that
need to be taken very seriously.

There is a great deal of talk about the globalization of the world
financial markets. Our financial markets are certainly global in scope and
there are certainly powerful interactions taking place between financial
markets. But there has not been a homogenization of international markets.
Quite the contrary, markets have behaved in a regional rather than a global
manner. The Hong Kong and Tokyo markets, for example, have tended to
resemble each other in the past year and have differed markedly from the
U.S. market. Indeed, over the last year, U.S. indices have behaved with an
extraordinary indifference to Asian markets, which tended to move together.
European markets have also tended to follow their own course, although with
much greater internal divergence than in U.S. or Asian indices. Yet, on
the whole, what we have seen is a pattern of intensifying regional
synchronization of markets along with growing interregional divergence.

The world appears to us less as a singular interdependency than as three
regional blocs, each driven by internal factors and each irritating the
others, without actually definitively influencing the others' courses. The
United States, East and Southeast Asia, and the European Union are
increasingly self-defined entities, following their own courses of
development. The assumption that an Asian meltdown would inevitably drag
the American boom down with it certainly hasn't taken place as yet. Nearly
a year into the Asian meltdown, the NASDAQ stands 250 points and 16 percent
above where it was a year ago, even after falling about 200 points in the
recent sell-off. Now, there is no reason to assume that the U.S. markets
won't fall. The current expansion is about six years old, and one of the
signs of a healthy economy is its ability to generate periodic recessions
to cull the weak. But if the U.S. market sells off and if the U.S. economy
goes into recession, it will have more to do with the internal dynamics of
the American economy than with the effects of the Asian crisis. For what
little it's worth, we do not see the U.S. economy weakening as yet, and
are not convinced that the current expansion is over.

Let us reiterate the view we expressed several years ago in our 1995-2005
Decade Forecast:


"The decade 1995-2005 will be seen as a golden age, comparable to the last
century's turn--and for many of the same reasons. However, obviously not
all nations will benefit equally:

The United States is by far in the best financial and demographic position
to capitalize on this tendency. Interestingly, the national deficit, which
is declining as a proportion of GDP, has not had the effect feared. The
primary problem of the deficit--that it crowds out private borrowers and
raises interest rates--has simply not happened and it will not happen.
What it has done is cripple the Federal government's ability to finance new
social initiatives. The key structural issue -- the U.S. deficit with East
Asia -- is primarily a political rather than economic problem, and will be
dealt with as such.

The European Union's enjoyment of this period will be limited somewhat by
Germany's ongoing digestive problems--absorbing the old East Germany--and
an inability to create a Monetary Union. On the one hand, the reluctance
of major powers to abdicate sovereignty to Brussels makes negotiations
difficult and subject to collapse and breakdown. On the other hand, the
fact that the EU contains both net creditor and debtor nations makes the
creation of a single, integrated fiscal policy--the precondition for
monetary union--difficult to imagine. The idea that Greece or Portugal and
Norway or the Netherlands will share fiscal strategies is a bit difficult
to imagine. As the EMU frays, European integration in general will be
questioned. The great reversal of 1997 will resonate through the next
decade.

Japan will share least in the new prosperity. The follies of the 1980s,
when Japanese corporations sacrificed profits to market share in order to
maintain cash flow and pay enormous debt service, will continue to haunt
Japan. Promises of recovery will come and pass away. In the meantime,
pressures on Japan from other East and Southeast Asian economies will
whittle away at Japan's comparative advantage, while the U.S. will continue
to dominate in the areas of technical innovation. Increased unemployment,
unfulfilled promises of prosperity, a sense of opportunities missed, will
increase social instability in Japan. To understand Japan in the next
decade, look at Japan during the 1920s, rather than at Japan in the 1980s.

We strongly feel that the last decade's surge in East Asian economies will
be peaking early during the 1996-97 cycle. Korea and Taiwan are both
reaching climaxes, marked by surplus cash fleeing the country, searching
for safe havens. The current Korean investment boom, followed closely by
Taiwan's, represents a peaking--followed by substantial economic problems.
China itself is facing deep structural problems, particularly a shortage of
skilled labor and falling rates of return on investments. We find it
extremely unlikely, political considerations not withstanding, that China's
current growth spurt will continue."


The general global prosperity is, in fact, intact. Even Asia's financial
crisis has not wiped away a generation's economic development. Asia is
surely better off today than it was in 1960. But beneath the general
economic well being, what we are observing is a profound regional
divergence that will have tremendous political consequences in the years to
come. Asia's structural weakness makes it increasingly difficult for it to
survive in a world dominated by the dollar as the basic denominator in
international trade. The inability of Europe to synchronize its markets,
while distinguishing it from other regions, means that its hopes for
integration will remain thwarted. Most important, the continuing increase
in American economic power, coupled with unchallenged American military
power, means that the United States is entering the 21st Century in
extraordinarily good shape. Indeed, we would argue that the United States
has become the center of gravity of the international system.

This leaves Asia as the increasingly frustrated afterthought. What will
drive Asia in the next months and years is a technical matter: the
difficulty of maintaining inter-Asian trade denominated in dollars. The
sheer scarcity of dollars will unnecessarily depress regional trade. The
smaller Asian powers will demand the creation of a regional reserve
currency that would facilitate trade and the creation of lending facilities
without dependency on the U.S.. The only currency that can serve this
cause is the yen. Japan will resist this, since it is highly dependent on
U.S. dollar-denominated trade, and has much to lose from decoupling from
the dollar.

However, Japan will fail to solve its internal economic problems. It will
therefore become less competitive in the United States because of the
effects of under-investment and under-capitalization. In due course, and
rather quickly at that, Japan will succumb to the vision of leaders like
Mahatir of Malaysia, who has seen this unfolding process more clearly than
most. The consequences of this move, while unintended, will be enormous,
creating a regional bloc whose interests are inherently opposed to those of
the United States. The next Japanese election will inevitably turn on
technical issues such as the creation of an Asian-Yen, which in turn will
have profound, and undiscussed, political consequences.

In the meantime, a vaguely coherent Europe will continue to try to form a
single currency in spite of the fact that the business cycles of its member
states haven't been synchronized. One is reminded of a similar bloc of
states attempting to federalize their economies through a single currency,
in spite of the fact that their economies were fundamentally different and
out of synch with each other. The inevitable result was that the American
South tried to secede and was defeated. As a result, it suffered nearly a
century of relative poverty at the hands of fiscal and monetary policies
that were indifferent to its needs.

Of course, there is no central force that will compel European states to
remain in the Union when monetary policy wreaks havoc on their national
economies. It is difficult to imagine an Abraham Lincoln arising among the
Brussels bureaucrats. An integrated Europe achieved without bloodshed
would mean that various European nations would voluntarily permit
centralized monetary and fiscal policies to wreak havoc on them, for the
sake of the principle of European integration. An economy that can't even
synchronize the British and German stock markets isn't going to go very far
except at the point of a gun.

Thus, when we look at the world's stock markets, we see things differently
than most. We see a growing regionalism of three blocs: East Asia, North
America, Europe. We see East Asia's stock markets pointing toward an
abandonment of the current international monetary system out of self-
defense. We see Europe's stock markets pointing to an inherent inability
of the Europeans to create an integrated European economy, and we therefore
anticipate endless conflicts in a state without a nation and a government
without power. And we continue to see the United States remaining
profoundly unaffected by the other regions, rumbling through its business
cycles like a powerful economic locomotive.

We never predict the market. But sometimes the market points in directions
of more lasting significance than tomorrow's market close. These markets
are pointing us toward a new world that will be defined less by
globalization than by regionalization. And that will be a very different
world than most expected just a few years ago.

http://www.realsurvival.com/

The insurance question is very good. I have been looking for any "official"
pronouncement from the industry and received this in early June. This is from
one of the insurance companies that we broker for. ( Most of the information
you know by heart. The "meat" is capitalized )

"As we begin to approach the new millennium, many uncorrected computer systems
could start to malfunction when they try to process data containing the year
'00'. For example, insurance renewals with a January 2000 expiration will
begin processing this coming October! When we do reach the millennium, other
items could malfunction. A heating/AC system that relies on an uncorrected
microprocessor to know when to operate may fail or an office telephone system
might freeze when it encounters the year '00'.

Many large companies and organizations, including CalFarm, have devoted
significant resources during the past few years to ensure that their systems
are Year 2000 compliant, which simply means they can handle Year 2000 dates
and beyond as well as 19XX dates.

Can the Year 200 problem affect your agency? YES! Virtually every area of
your agency's operation has a potential Year 2000 vulnerability, including
computer hardware, software, other business machines such as phone and fax,
and building security or environmental systems. And an agency, like any
business, needs to consider not only its own systems, but also those of its
business partners, such as payroll service, CPA and bank. What if one of
these partners were unable to process/service your account because it couldn't
handle a Year 2000 date?

Some feel that insurance will pay for any Year 2000 losses.

THE POSITION TAKEN BY MOST INSURERS, INCLUDING CALFARM, IS THAT THE YEAR 2000
PROBLEM DOES NOT HAPPEN BY CHANCE; IT IS A KNOWN, EXPECTED, INTENDED AND
APPARENT PROBLEM WITH ELECTRONICS AND COMPUTERS. THUS, INSURANCE DOES NOT
COVER SUCH A PROBLEM UNLESS IT HAS BEEN ENDORSED TO DO SO. CALFARM WILL NOT BE OFFERING COVERAGE BY ENDORSEMENT FOR THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM."

NOTE: Maybe all of us business owners should check with our liability carriers to get their stance!

Thanks again for sharing this important perspective.

Notice Silver has dumped to $5.03. What's that do to the APH long position.? Will the metals withstand this latest devaluation any better than the last. Precious metals rising everywhere but in dollar terms - I guess that's to be happy about.

Watch Hillary come out and stand behind her man winning support for women around the nation and freeing Clinton to wade through these troubled waters.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
S&P off 950,NSDQ off 1425 - As you point out overseas markets poor per Yahoo ( Bloomberg showing very different numbers for some reason ) .
Look out below. And gold and silver off US1.20 and 5.5 cents. When will this debacle end?

I do have to question the Global Intelligence report re regionalization vs. globalization. The Asian flu is starting to effect the U.S. drastically on the west coast. Washington state and California are just starting to get the effect in exports to Asia, particularly in lumbering, agriculture and Silicon Valley for starters. My son works for a large golf club manufacturer in Calif and 25% of their sales were in Japan and Asia and they are taking a big hit. The rest of the US will soon be feeling the effects also. All IMHO of course ;- ) I hope Asia can get this thing turned around faster than it appears to be happening or we are all going to feel the effects.

Now we have the ruble derubbled - it surely hits us euros, ther is a lot of money lent and spent in recent years from us to GUS.

Wondering, if natures law -"Pants down, POG up" is valid this time.

THANX HEAPS for the source.

Live Long and Prosper.

Dow to fall by 100+ points today.

Gold to test $US 278 this week???


Hmmmmmmmmm.......

Live Long and Prosper.

While I agree with much of what you say re U.S. foreign relations policy no country can just declare itself "nuclear free" in this age of balistic missiles. And this is becoming more true with each passing day. You may have heard of N. Korea's efforts recently - the underground efforts they are making to get the "bomb"? We know they have delivery capability, at least over Japan. And N. Korea isn't alone in these efforts. Iran, Iraq, India, Pakestan, etc. etc. Crawling into a shell isn't going to work I fear.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/india_rupe_1.html

CHINA AND HK ARE NEXT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY MEXICO AND BRAZIL! MANY RUSSIAN BANKS WILL NOW FAIL AS WELL AS JAPANESE BANKS WITH HUGE ASIAN EXPOSURE! RESULT WILL BE MASSIVE SALE OF US EQUITIES AND BONDS TO BAIL OUT JAPANESE BANKING SYSTEM!! LOOK OUT NOW!! SPOOS DOWN 10!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/markets_as_3.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/ose_says_s_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980813/brazil_shr_1.html

WILL PRESSURE CHINA TO DEVALUE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER!! SPOOS DOWN 9.50!! With FAIR VALUE at 4.25, SPOOS are actually trading down 13.75 from Friday's close!! Speculators already driving rouble lower!! May need to revalue again and again and again with dire results for Europe and Asia!

NOW DA!! DA!! DA!! How ironic that both Yeltsin and Clinton should be revealed as liars on the same day!! Whose lies will be revealed next?

From an average of $200/month to $100/month!! How'd you like to live on THAT!! INFLATION WILL NOW SOAR OUTA' SIGHT!!! RESULT WILL BE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY!! PERHAPS LEAD TO A FASCIST DICTATORSHIP!!

Dutch multinationals compel suppliers to switch to euro on Jan 1
Date: 17 Aug 1998 10:22:25
Service: AFX

AMSTERDAM ( AFX ) - Dutch multinationals are taking steps to compel their
suppliers to switch over to the euro on January 1, Het Financieele Dagblad
reported, citing company spokesmen and officials.
Royal Philips Electronics NV sent letters to its suppliers last week saying
that their inability to begin billing in euros from January 1 will hamper its
efforts to switch to the new currency as quickly as possible, the paper said.
It quoted Philips' euro project manager H Hijzen as saying that the company
will not, however, take any action against companies continuing to bill in
guilders.
A Unilever NV spokesman said that it will give suppliers working in euros
next year preferential treatment, as they will "contribute to, among other
things, the simplification of our administration".
Akzo Nobel NV's centralized euro committee secretary E Fortuna said the
committee is giving guidelines to the group's operating companies to encourage
as quick as possible a transition to the euro. The operating companies are free
to implement their own policies regarding their suppliers.
"Most suppliers will make the transition at once. In any case, we prefer
price quotes in euros. For international purchases, that increases
transparency," the paper quoted Fortuna as saying.
jb/jsa

Some would say there is one in the USA !

http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/business/news/06.html

LAUGH, and the world laughs with you......

SNORE, and you sleep alone......

SEX, don't do it alone.....

ADMIT, to the Judge..."we have an understanding, one night a week I go out with the Girls, and one night a week my wife does the same ??!!!!

ADMIT, that when BC got married, his wife asked him if he was oversexed, or over sex.

ADMIT, that you always complanin to your wife ..." You never cry out when you have an orgasm"...to which your wife replies..." How do you know, you are never there??!!".

ADMIT, it was Hillary's idea..... Monica did ask you ..."Does your wife know you are bringing me home tonite?".......to which BC replied...." OH hell yes. We argued for an hour this for an hour this morning".

Hillary asked BC...." How is it that I am always catching you screwing the cook?"..... BC....." It's because you always wear sneakers"...

"AN INAPPROPRIATE RELATIONSHIPS"..... what position is that ?!!!!!

Spin, spin, spin, spin..........

Anyone for cricket ?

Och aye the nooooooooo.........

Crash Index: -8
as of AUG 17, 1998
Previous Index -6

OUR PROPRIETARY PCI INDICATOR HAS FALLEN TO A -10 ON 7/24/98
THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1994.

It looks to me like we are kinda holding. Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see today's trading from here be pretty much a non event.

TO: APH are we supposed to be long Silver, now??? Lows on Access were $5.03. Going Long if we get positive on the day???

Who would have believed?? I think the reason so many people are willing to forgive Clinton his sexual transgressions is they could see themselves being tempted to do the same thing if they were presidient. In the American culture of telling your mother you ate your spinach when you didn't , and then asking for dessert, they'd take it all if they could have it all. They are honest enough with themselves, though, to know they would and hance are not to critical.

The rest of Clinton's problems don't play to well on television and the general public doesn't understand it.

Enough of all this about Clinton and for the markets at this juncture. Non event till after he addresses the nation with Hillary by his side. She ( Strong Woman ) will speak up for him and standby her man.

Stock market, Tuesday, will put in a surprise rally back up to 1130 on the S&P then tank.

SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/17/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 5.12
Current NAV as of 8/13/98 close: 5.25

Return on current trade: 2.54%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 13.65%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -3.53%


Market Commentary:

Friday saw yet another rally attempt by bulls turned away handily by
bears. This is becoming a familiar routine, as morning rally attempts
give way to more concerted selling. The bulls are becoming confused and
frustrated, since their normally reliable buy signals are not working.
Sure, the market is deeply oversold by many measures, but so what. In a
bull market the market can get overbought and remain that way for a very
long time continuing ever higher. By the same token, in a bear market
the market can get oversold and remain that way for a very long time and
just keep dropping lower. What the buy the dips crowd fails to realize
is that this ain't a bull market no more, and, as a result, bull market
rules no longer apply. We're sure they will figure it out sooner or
later, but in the meantime, Shepler Market Timer subscribers will remain
one step ahead of the crowd.
That much said, we are now into the timeframe for our 8/17 +/- 1 day
turning point. It is now clear that this turning point should mark a
short-term low, and the end of the first wave down in this bear market.
However, until we receive a strong buy signal from our proprietary
buy/sell indicator we will remain short. Our buy/sell indicator is not
even close to the buy zone, and it will take some very heavy selling
Monday and possibly Tuesday to get it there. So, it looks like the
market will be in for another Manic Monday and Terrible Tuesday. The
first line of support is at S&P 500 ( SPX ) 1045, and the next at SPX
1030. We expect that the 1030 level on the S&P and the 8150 area on the
Dow will mark the lows for this first downleg of the bear market. The
ensuing rebound rally should last from 1-2 weeks, but we do not expect
it to be very powerful. We will provide upside projections once this
week's short-term bottom is in.
On the sentiment front, OEX put/call ratio came in at a neutral 1.14
on Friday, certainly not indicative yet of the type of fear we would
like to see to mark a short-term bottom. The Rydex ratio however
continues to climb reaching 119% on Friday. Among fund switchers, some
'Johnny come lately' bears are joining the party just in time for the
turning point low due in the early part of this week. The weekly
Investor's Inteligence figures show bulls dropping from 50% to 43.4% and
bears climbing from 27.6% to 31.9%. This is an improvement, but again
certainly not indicative of any type of intermediate-term bottom. We
will be looking for the put/call ratio to show an increase in fear this
week to confirm a short-term low.
Market internals continued to look very bearish with Decliners
beating Advancers 1640 to 1296, and new lows beating out new highs 231
to 33 issues. These internals, while terrible, are still not the types
of numbers seen at turning point lows, so we expect they will get much
worse next week. In fact we will be looking for 500 or more new lows,
and 3 to 1 or worse Decliners to Advancers in the early part of this
week.
So, we remain with our profitable Ursa trade, looking for a sharp
sell-off in the early part of the week. Once, we are confident that a
short-term low is in, we will switch back to cash and look to go short
again at the end of the 1-2 week rebound rally.

And we'd all believe it.

Israeli company using White House sex scandal to sell detergent
Copyright  1998 Nando.net
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service
JERUSALEM, Aug 17 ( August 17, 1998 07:06 a.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com ) - An Israeli soap powder company is using the U.S. presidential sex scandal in its ad campaign promoting stain-removing detergent. In a television commercial, the Lever Israel company suggests that its Biomat detergent can deal with even the most stubborn stains caused by what has euphemistically been called DNA material.

It shows "FBI agents" entering the "home" of Monica Lewinsky to remove, wash and return the dress at the center of an investigation into whether President Bill Clinton had an affair with the former White House intern and told her to lie about it.

For what the company called legal reasons, the spelling of Lewinsky's name on a mail box outside the house was Monika Lavinsky.

But the two agents slip up in their apparent mission to protect the president.

On leaving the house, they report by wrist radio the dress is now "whiter then white" -- only to be told by a voice in their earpieces: "White? But it's a blue dress."

The commercial, already aired on Israeli news programs, premiered on Monday to coincide with Clinton's closed circuit television testimony to a federal grand jury.

"We believe that this kind of humor will help us reach the consumer," Yair Sharett, a Lever Israel representative, told Reuters.

What did the German Banker say to the Russian ......

"I was going to call you a bastard, but you're too ugly to be a love child".......

"If the Russsian Mafia ever put a price on your head, TAKE IT"....

"You claim to have an open mind, it's more like a vacant block"...

"When you were born, you were sooooooo ugly that the Doctor MUST have slapped your mother".....

PS....

Karl Mark was NOT the brother of Chico and Harpo.........

60% write off........oh dear........

What did the German Banker say to the Russian ......

"I was going to call you a bastard, but you're too ugly to be a love child".......

"If the Russsian Mafia ever put a price on your head, TAKE IT"....

"You claim to have an open mind, it's more like a vacant block"...

"When you were born, you were sooooooo ugly that the Doctor MUST have slapped your mother".....

PS....

Karl Mark was NOT the brother of Chico and Harpo.........

60% write off........oh dear........

My guess is that the German Bankers had to save face and call it a write off; as the Russians most probably refused to pay in any event. The Russians accepted the money as part payment for WW2 damages. "Spacibah"

The hard sell is on. "Retirees of age 65 will live 20 years longer, therefore they MUST invest in a diversified portfolio of "conservative" mutual funds to maintain their wealth" ( paraphrased ) . It must be so, I saw and heard it on CNBC.

Not to beat a dead horse, but whatever WJK does, he ainta gonna resign. As someone else said, he is a sociopath and is totally consumed with the need for power. Not only that but Billary wont let him.

Well who will be blamed today for BC's BJs. Perhaps the fundamentalist right. Perhaps those bigots who don't like Arkansasians. Maybe he has a tumor that rips out a person's self control. Maybe its people who put Spanish Fly in the DC water supply. So I hear reliable rumors that BC will confess to HC of his exploits off the oval office. HC, supposedly formerly one of the top 100 lawyers in the country with the Rose law firm is supposed to be receiving the bad news of BC's infidelity today. Right. But nevertheless she has to stand by his side. Otherwise, who would hold his backbone straight and grip those old puppet strings.

It does not look like a terrrible day on the DOW, but I don't
trust S&P either. PPT don't you know. With all the terrible
news out of Asia and Russia, I would dexpect the PPT to start their
act early.

Canadian dollar is off 14 points, yen is up some.

Ho hum. Looks like just another Monday. I see the Russians finally devalued. That will have about as much impact as if the state of Montana announced it was going to raise the price of it's school lunch program by ten percent.

Clinton presents his videotape today and his talk tonight. Another non-issue.

I guess the DOW may be down some more today. Precious metals don't look real hot either, but not too bad either.

Somebody wake me up when Tuesday gets here.

Greenspan worried about big stock market drop
















August 17, 1998


4:49 PM 8/14/98

Mortgage Rates Fall in
Latest Week
Forestry Company
Ready to Sell Maine
Land, Mills
Consumers Call for
Share of Phone Rate
Cut
Mergers-Related
Layoffs Rise in 1998
Jobless Claims Fall in
Latest Week
Magazine Says
Greenspan Feared
Stock Fall
Productivity Drops in
Second Quarter
The Market: Dow
Jones industrial average
drops 34.50 points to
8,425.00; Nasdaq off
12.84 to 1,789.70.

Updated: Aug141998 04:48PM

Magazine Says Greenspan Feared Stock Fall

WASHINGTON, Aug. 13, 1998 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan has expressed fears the U.S. economy could be damaged if stock prices
fell dramatically in the same way as they did in Japan in the late 1980s, the New
Yorker magazine said.

Referring to a meeting nearly two months ago between private economists and the
Fed board, the magazine said the participants discussed the parallels between the
stock market crash of 1929 and the more recent stock market crash in Japan.

``Greenspan is very worried about a repeat of Tokyo in the eighties, and he should
be worried,'' Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton business school, who attended
the meeting, was quoted in the most recent issue of the magazine as saying.

Siegel told Reuters the meeting was on June 15 and that it lasted for several hours
including lunch. The periodic meeting is held at the Fed once or twice a year.

He said there was general agreement that bubbles in asset prices, as experienced by
Japan in the 1980s, were harmful for the economy but that the United States was not
in that situation yet.

``I don't think we're anywhere near there,'' Siegel said, noting that property prices
were not generally inflated as they had been in Japan at the end of the 1980s.

The meeting also discussed the issue of whether the Federal Reserve should raise
interest rates to cool an overheating stock market.

Siegel said the economists and consultants invited to the meeting generally believed
the Fed should refrain from using higher interest rates as this was ``too blunt an
instrument.''

A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment on the magazine report or the meeting,
citing the central bank's policy of not disclosing conversations in private meetings.

Aye,

Days gone by, dandruff used to be the problem.......

Now a days, Companies can claim....

" It's guarenteed to wash out your DNA.......".........

I will `leave the rest to your imagination........

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And how did BC and Monica become involved......

BC to Monica, his opening line....

"I was having some alphabet soup the other day, and your name came up"...

Or, was it......

"You are just my type. You're a Girl"........

Or, was it...... BC bumped into Monica....

"Oh excuse me, I don't normally talk to strangers, but I am on my way to confession. Could you possibly help me out, I'm short on material"....

Or, was it simply some Fatherly advice....

"IMPROVE your image, and be seen with me"......

Och aye the noooooooooo........

Today or sometime in the future?

http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Gold_int.htm

http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeXAU.htm

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

and the yen, despite the damage to the stock markets in these
countries. Is this the start of a trend?

THE EURO........................

60% write off on an "old" currency........

what next............

Never mind, "we" ( The Europeans ) have a new star waiting in the wings, with a very stable backup group called "The AUs"...........

Let the party begin, first game musical chairs.........

Now, who has not got any gold ??????!!!!!!

Pssst! Wanna see a monumental triple top which is also a near perfect head n shoulders???? peek at : http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=gm&d=b

Monday witnessed massive stock selling in all Asian Stock Markets - only
two were mercifully spared because they were closed ( Hong Kong and
Indonesia ) . Japan cratered 329 points, the Nikkei closing well below the
important psychological 15000 level. China was slaughtered, falling 8.4%.
China's massive sell-off may well be indicative of an imminent yuan
( renminbi ) devaluation - which would be the catalyst for the Yen to follow suit.

Asian analyst John Kutyn began forecasting the demise of the Asian economies Nearly one year ago. He dissected all aspects of Far-Eastern markets - Consequently predicting the total destruction of the formally proud Asian Tigers of the Pacific Rim. All is coming to pass as he foresaw.

The Asian markets continue to crumble, but per Mr. Kutyn, much worse is
yet to come. Based upon his analysis of the deteriorating banking system
in the Far-East, he envisions the Nikkei finally bottoming around 4,000.

Mr. Kutyn believes the Asian Tsunami will engulf all Western economies
and their paper currencies, precipitating a global fleeing FROM FIAT
MONEY AND ALL TAKING REFUGE IN GOLD.

A review of his numerous prophetic reports is command reading to focus clearly upon what is YET to enfold in this saga.

ALL his reports may be read at the following URL - it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/kutynndx.html

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Gra1.htm

Bed time reading.......good nite.......

BC to the Judge......

"Your Honour, my mother was cruel to me". Is it cruel to sew buttons on flies?"......

Good Nite............

Looks like the almighty Dollar has more to go on the upside, based on the channel chart. http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/usd.html

and the decline of European, and Asian stock markets, the US dollar
still declined against all G7 currencies except the Canadian dollar.
Perhaps I'm a bit thick this morning, but should not the USD firm
under these conditions?

Your insights would be welcome.

Is Japan selling its T-bills?

Brother Oris, my humble apologies for not being able to seriously drink with you and other Kitco Russia Watchers this past weekend. We might have missed a Golden opportunity to resolve many pressing issues. Some time it is easier to see the future threw the bottom of an up-turned glass as it's contents of Blondinka are soothing ones toncils. Maybe next weekend if I can wait that long.
At the moment Russia's devaluation might not be so bad for our mining companies. Today we can factor in an approx. 30% discount on our Russian costs. That might last about a month before prices start to rise accordingly.
All the best, Na zdarovia and good night from Down Under.Cheer & a big Gulp to you.

The Britsh pound is stiffly down too, but yes normally the conditions you cite would firm the dollar.

However, the dollar was weakening before the announced Russian devaluation due, no doubt, because of some hesitancy by traders in the face of the Clinton thing today and tomorrow.

The dollar has halted that decline and is beginning to get a little more backbone, now, as external events continue to unfold this morning.

we are very close to the levels at which the last intervention
to support the yen occurred. The question is, will the US buy
yen or will the BOJ sell treasuries?

The USD in an up channel keeps gold in its downchannel.

Yet if gold remains under paper pressure, eventually the
BIS will intervene. IMHO These are interesting times.

Dollar/yen was softer after Japan MOF's Sakakibara said dollar/yen had peaked at last week's 8-yr high 147.64, and he was looking for an opportunity to intervene.

What does "looking for an opportunity to intervene" mean?

More foot dragging?

My biggest worry re the USD, is that the BOJ can't sell its
US T-bills because of some back room agreement between the
Japanese and US governments. I do not think all is as it seems
with the relationship of these two nations. I fear Japan is
a puppet of the US and has been since it was occupied in 1945.

In recent months I have perused literally 1,000 of pages of rhetoric about the potential dangers of the MILLENNIUM MENACE. However, none of them refers to what we all take for granted: LAW PROTECTION, AND THOSE FEARLESS MEN WHO GUARANTEE THE SAFETY OF OUR FAMILIES AND PROPERTY.

To be sure the greatest need for the men in blue ( the police ) is looming on the horizon.

We are not just talking possible neighborhood disturbances, or riots  la Los Angeles ( a few years back ) , or regionally contained civil strife - like in Indonesia recently. WE ARE TALKING POSSIBLE GLOBAL LAWLESSNESS. One can only imagine nightmares about the bloody potential... where individual policemen may heed the higher call of duty... and rush to their OWN homes to protect THEIR wives and children. Who could
blame them?!

Someone needs to alert the general public. Someone needs to drive the message home that if and when it comes down to the real nut cutting, each man will understandably run to protect his own family. Subsequently, I feel someone should do an essay about possible scenarios if the Y2K bug is more severe than some think it to be. Where it also affects the Police Force.

Who but a retired law enforcement officer could tell a more credible story of what might happen?! Following is a candid, down to earth view of what a retired Law Enforcement Officer foresees as a possible worse case scenario. It is a very credible story and the author aptly called his story "What If ????"

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/jacobson081398.html

http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9832.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wild Dogs Pose Post-TEOTWAWKI Danger
http://www.survival-center.com/buckshot/dogs.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980817/ca_pulsatr_1.html

I do not believe there is a serious connection between
ruble and U.S. dollar in the modern financial world.
Ruble and DM, yes. What you see is probably some
reaction to the coming Clinton's week. If it goes
not in favour of Mr. Clinton, U.S. dollar may be
slightly upset...outside the U.S.

I would be interested in someone's astute evaluation of what would happen if the Japanese DID start selling their treasuries. What would they do with the proceeds? Buy Yen?

Sales of treasuries would drive interest rates up. Bad for bonds and stocks.

Would also take dollars out of the US which would cause liquidity problems if all they did was convert Treasury reserves to dollar reserves. Deflation, but with a large dollar overhang in the BOJ.

If they bought yen immediately with the proceeds, would bring dollars back to US in conversion process which would bring inflationary result.
Which would tend to raise interest rates.

Or if the whole process was "sanitized" properly and coordinated with Fed actions, there could be a relatively neutral effect except to strengthen yen versus dollar.

Can you imagine that these BAS##### actually profiled a seventy year old man and his wife to reinforce the fact that they are going to hold their ground no matter how bad it gets. These people have NO MERCY and their legal team had better be ready as my prediction is that they will face civil or better yet class action law suits for their ppt tactics. How much lower will they stoop.

Ref: Gollum Questions: "I would be interested in someone's astute evaluation of what would happen if the Japanese DID start selling their treasuries. What would they do with the proceeds? Buy Yen?"

The ORACLE of the Orient report, "JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES RUMORED"
answers those questions.

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/oracle061698.html

Brother Junior,

It's my understanding that the danger of ruble
being devaluated so severely is in great dependency
of modern Russia from imported goods. As you mentioned,
in a short time you got to raise wages accordingly,
otherwise....you know. Not talking about your mining
companies, which I hope is doing fine, many domestic
producers will not be helped, because they are mostly dead
already...I guess the current Russian givernment is the
current disposable one, like usual....somebody must answer
for the suffering of the "working people".

According to Bill Buckler @ The Privateer, the Japanese -- and British -- have already been selling treasuries:

"In late 1997, Great Britain took over from Japan as the world's number one foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt paper. Just over six months ago, at the end of January 1998, Great Britain stood with total holdings of $US 299.2 billion. Japan was number two in that month with total holdings of $US 293.3 billion. As of the end of May 1998, Japan had a holding of $US 266.9 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, notes and bills, while Great Britain stood with $US 265.7 billion.

".... In the four months between January and May 1998, British holders of the debt paper of the United States sold down their holdings by a quite massive $US 33.5 billion, while Japanese holders of the debts of the U.S. have sold $US 26.4 billion.

"Over four months, a massive $US 59.9 billion of Treasury debt paper was sold by these two nations. Yet interest rates inside the U.S. did not rise. In fact, they fell.

"That raises the really central question: Who bought all this debt paper and what did they buy it with?"

-----

Buckler goes on to deduce that the bonds were bought by the U.S. But why no reflection in the rate? Because, Buckler concludes, the U.S. has been printing the money with which to buy its debt -- that is, monetizing the debt. This is THE classic signal of the beginning of the end.

Thanx for info re lease rates. If you send me an email, I'll hunt up any seeds etc you may want. cdevoto@abts.net PS Somehow missed that you were in Canada.

How much info do you have ( or URL ) re this? Please let me know what you can, thanx Charlie

of article is "We need liquidity, Mr G. "

In the article, Kemp says,

" I believe it is imperative that you use your influence to initiate steps to move the world back toward a stable monetary regime anchored to the price of GOLD ( my emphasis ) ".

Droke the Bear's Bear has been right on the money for some time.

Stock Market Analyst Clif Droke point out Dow broke decisively below its
200-period moving average--a very bearish indicator. He further comments
" our technical readings continue to show that the market's new course is firmly in favor of the bears."

Technical Analyst Droke goes on to observe, "Again, our downside target for minor wave five is between DJ 8000 and DJ 8150. This is because, in the Elliott Wave Theory, two of the three impulsive waves usually tend toward equality."

He is flabbergasted that " Newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily run headlines exhorting investors to "stay put" during the corrections and urging them not to "fret" when the ( blue ) chips are down." -- Wall Street heralders. leading the "lambs" to inescapable slaughter.

Market maven Droke foresees we are "rapidly approaching collapse in U.S. equities.

See his august 17th report at the following URL. It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke081798.html

The Credit Card

The federal government can get all the money it wants, any time it wants, just by issuing more pretty paper in the form of Treasury bonds, bills, notes and securities. They do it almost every day and you buy most of this paper because you or your retirement representatives believe its the "safest" place to invest even though the interest rate is low ( just a shade under 5 percent on average ) and even though Congress has mentioned "default" several times.

The Treasury is paying off matured paper every day. Billions in notes for money borrowed up to thirty years ago are being cashed in daily. Then, twelve to sixteen times a month the Treasury auctions off new paper. If they didnt replace matured paper with new paper, they would have made a payment against the national debt and nobody wants that, do they? They replace and maintain or increase the debt level as fast as they can.

Now, supposing that people didnt buy up all of the bonds, notes, bills and such that the Treasury auctions off on any given day. Supposing the people finally got wise to the fact that the only plan to reduce the debt is default? What do you suppose would happen then? Do you think that the Treasury would just hold onto the unsold paper until the next auction and then try to sell it again? Wrong!

Whatever the public doesnt buy at any given Treasury auction is purchased by the Federal Reserve. The Fed writes a check to the U.S. Treasury and walks off with the remaining paper. This check is backed by absolutely nothing since the Fed has no reserve. At least, they have no reserve which isn't in gold bars owned by the stockholders. Nothing but paper changes hands between the Fed and the Treasury.

Now, the Fed is going to take all that Treasury paper it just bought and distribute it amongst its twelve Reserve Banks who will then try to sell it to citizens who were not represented at the auction, making a tidy 100 percent profit when they do since they paid nothing for it, but the damage has already been done. The United States Treasury took the Feds check, added it to their assets, and once it spends this latest asset it becomes real money. Its the same as printing additional money.

In other words, what starts out as money created out of thin air ( pure fiat money ) ends up passing through your hands with all the power of other real money. And all of the assets you are holding become worth less than the day before this happened. This is not inflation, its devaluation of the dollar. Its much more subtle, much more cagey, much more difficult to see, but now you have to sweat more to stay even.

from

http://www.poop.org/poopons/fed.htm

testing
http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/kutynndx.html

Dow up 50 this morning. I agree with your bearish outlook, BUT PREDICTING DAY TO DAY MOVES IS A VERY DANGEROUS BUSINESS.

burn, the media will burn with Clintler as shall the spineless politicians who can't speak in direct words. There are many women who can't stand Clintler, the Polls mean nothing, and I think that C_ckelot is something the American people do not want in their House sometimes referred to as the White House...I do not think the majority of Americans want the white house awash with Clintler's semen...

A liberal will be nothing more than a healthy portion on a plate, a conservative, someone who is thrift with their money and the pendulum will swing far to the right...too far...the invention of the oral chasity belt will make headlines...feminists will have their armpits and legs shaved, they will be bathed and spend the rest of their lives holding doors open for men...

Other than the above, I will continue to reach for a smoke first thing in the morning...drink coffee, brush my teeth with Crown Royal and generally laugh all day as the absolute insanity of life unfolds before my tequila bloodshot eyes...

You got that right. This is an unannounced devaluation, but sooner or later the increase in units of account will put pressure on gold units of weight. So far, the spin drs have been fighting against this, but the pressure will show up.

If all hell breaks loose here this or next year, please lend us your moral support - for we will be fighting for freedom everywhere. We must rid ourselves of this iron heel before it gets too oppressive.
I think of this when I recall the story of Scotland ( as briefly portrayed in Braveheart ) . And yes, they do not yet fully have their freedom - yet.

P.S. Posts later today from me may be either scarce or Grizzly.
I've just had yet another wisdom tooth out - in my late forties.
A hour or two from now my attitude could really take a dive.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980817/glamis_gol_1.html

The financial markets seem to have well taken the news of ruble devaluation and 3 month debt moratorium.
European and US stocks are still looking for a direction for the day but no cataclysm yet.
So , what does that tell us ? First , this devaluation was well anticipated with Russian debt already trading last week at near default level ( 1 month ruble was trading at ard 200 % and 20 years bonds denominated in US $ yielding 25% above LIBOR ) . Then , it seems that market speculators were so short ruble and other financial assets ( european bank shares , german marks , stock indexes ... ) that the profit taking has been quite difficult .
We can expect phase to last one day to a week.
However , this devaluation means a loss for the European banking industry of several billion dollars. Difficult to say precisely how much as these things are well concealed.
The most dramatic effects will unfold in RUSSIA. The SBERBANK which receives 70 % of the russian people savings has so much RUSSIAN bonds that it is in virtual bankruptcy unless the government decides to print more money. So either the Russian lose their savings or they get paid with funny money . Either way , I don't expect to see the current leaders still in power after CHRISTMAS.
The world is slowly dreafting towarsd insolvency and the US will collapse last but when it will come , their will be blood on the steet.
Meanwhile , I expect the S&P to reach 1010 by the end of August and 845 ( october low ) by september.
GOLD is still at a ridiculous price. Keep the cash strictly necessary fot living 18 months and convert all the remaining in GOLD . You will accumulate wealth to sustain your families for generations.

Hang in there buddy. I'm lucky= all of mine are gone and I got a good fit. You might want to consider a nembutal cocktail for a few days. Good luck, Charlie

not so much is it dangerous ( especially if you are just popping off ) ......BUT IT IS MUCH LIKE THAT YOUNG BOY WHO CRIED WOLF JUST ONCE TOO MANY. WHO/WHAT IS THERE LEFT TO READ OR BELIEVE. IT ALL LOOKS THE SAME AFTER A WHILE. THE SCROLL GETS A WORKOUT.......yawn.
away...to watch this 'crash'












is he so loud in person..... ( ? )

Dear Puetz,

Nice to see you answering one of my questions yesterday!

You caught my attention last year, not because you were making predictions but because you were strongly encouraging others to buy S&P put options because of the upcoming market crash "within the next few weeks!" You did this a few times and you disappeared when the market exploded to the upside to make numerous new record highs for several months!

Will the same thing happen this time around and will you disappear again?

There won't be any crash this year nor there will be any next year and the year after. Markets have their own logic, no matter what we want them to do because of the fundamentals, technical analysis and even the moon stuff that you know more about than me.

The day that people will learn to respect what the markets are doing, without arguing and without whining, lots of profits ( $$$ ) will become available to them but looks like many seem to have a preference for "deciding" for what the markets "should" do! They could be in for decades of waiting and losing money.

Yeah, markets act stupid and they are unbelievable most of the times but you and I will not be able to change that! There is one thing that we can adapt though and it's the way we react to the reality just mentioned above and it is the best way to extract maximum profits from the markets!

What's the use of trying to understand all of the fundamentals and all sorts of indicators when markets do not care anymore? Isn't that the reality what we have to deal it? ( It's good to be aware of outside factors but by remaining open minded and objective ) . I prefer to spend my energy on what the markets are doing and what they are telling me..... the rewards are fantastic.

Listen to the equity markets again Puetz.. and I mean, seriously. It didn't want to crash last year and it doesn't want to crash this year. It doesn't want to crash for a long time to come... longer that maybe most would expect.

You predict another huge drop in the Dow by this Friday and a crash in September.

I predict that you will be wrong on both counts ( once again ) and you will lose your money on your S&P put options just like last year. And this is based on what the markets are showing!

It amazes me how these two Companies allow the shorts to push them around at will. The trading activity smells of shorts and they seem intent on holding these gold producers down. It is beyond me why abx does not initiate their buyback program at a time where they are sure to burn the shorts. Guess Mr. Munk is too busy playing real estate magnet!

Disney down to 31 13/16 -- a mere 10% loss since the big EB recommendation. Get with the plan Eric:

"I have not had recommendations with that stock, Disney"

yawn ... away to sweep up the debrie of more mega-neg EB reccos... love, big guy.

Spud

HURRY. SELL INTO THIS LATEST RALLY WITH SPIDERS........AND TICKS AND MICE AND THE KITCHEN SINK. LISTEN TO ME. I IMPLORE THEE TO LISTEN TO ME. I AM A TOP EXPERT. ( wait, wrong guy ) IGNORE AND PERISH. BLAH BLAH BLAH. SELL SELL SELL!!! SPIIIIIIIIIIIDERS!!! YAAAAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! GO PACKERS. ( whoops they lost this weekend...to the Raiders ( ? ) ) .....what's that you say? ONE GAME DOES NOT A SEASON MAKE?? KINDA LIKE THIS MARKET, EH? ONE CORRECTION DOES NOT A CRASH MAKE?? DON'T LISTEN TO THEM, LISTEN TO ME!! I WILL BRING YOU TO THIS PROMISED LAND. BLAH BLAH BLAH. SINGAPORE DOWN!...NO, UP.......ER DOWN...........OH NO! SELL SELL SELL ........ETC ETC ETC ETC............ ( ugh ) ...

that he is actually GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD. Isn't there an uncanny similarity in the 'mock' GCH he just did. I really thing this tags it. EB, just tell us so and end the suspense, OK. TIA!!!

Grizz
Although I am sometimes jaundiced over the antics of the gobmint of the US of A, and although I have sometimes been salty in my descriptions of merkins I have always kept an open mind. Why you can see flocks of birds flying clean through it when the moon is right. I have learnt a tremendous amount about the US through books, film and television. Now I am talking to many merkins in this cyber-forum who are further assisting my understanding of what is to me, an alien culture. Made all the more alien because we share a common language.
While I understood about the constituion, I did not understand, until I was edumacated by kitco, how it was crafted from thoughts of great moral height and written in the blood of your heros. Neither did I know what it means to you in your everday lives; this living document, this proclamation of freedom.

If we talked all night we'd never agree on gun control, I am content to let the matter rest as a difference in culture, therefore there are no better or worse positions.

Despite what sharefin, I and other antipodeans may say, we recognise that we are cousins to the US, we share most of our political and social outlooks. In NZ, just like the US,we especially covet our freedoms and our democracy, and we always look out for our mates, even if they don't play football.


Well it wouldn't be "the same ol same ol" if you dropped in more often. Where you been? Are you collecting autographs on the golf course again?

Can you give us some feasible scenarios that might come about with RANGY by the end of the year. Are you concerned that the Company may try to screw shareholders. You have some insight into RANGY management that we don't have. Thanks

let us make this clear. My Disney buy was NOT a recommendation. IT WAS NOT. Let me say it AGAIN. Buying DISNEY was NOT a recommendation. If you think it was then you are wrong kind spud. My Disney buy was an excercise and a LONG term buy......... ( actually I said to look at it in December ) .......that is DECEMBER for some who have selective reading habits. And then I said let us look at it AGAIN in JULY of 1999! That is ONE WHOLE YEAR FROM NOW. Until then I get good chuckle from your 'DIGS'. You still kill me Spudster. And I still love you man.

btw.....where did your 2g's go? Did you buy gold? gold shares? Are you holding that yankee toilet paper you are so fond of? The same stuff that enables you to buy potatoes and other sustenance to feed the family? How many gold and silver coins did you use at the grocery store this time? And did they accept them this time? hmmmmmmmmm....

Spuddy, please let me know where you put your two G's. I need to know. Or please just refrain from my 'excercise' and let me know how my Disney is doing come December. Please. I do not day trade stox. ( and thank goodness you say ) ..........but I do day trade gold on occasion. Like last year when I SHORTED it at 340 and watched it take a tumble offa the cliff. Remember the doppler effect?? Is this your way of getting back at me for making a BUTTLOAD of money last year?? C'mon Spuds....... can you see clearly now? The rain is gone.....all of the obstacles are outta your way. Gone are the dark clouds that can make you blind......it's gonna be a bright..............etc.etc.





go gold!

The gold market is both boring and depressing. Must be about time for things to turn, probably for reasons that no one gave much consideration.

Yet, guess things could be worse, we could be testifying today rather than our dear pres. Talk about an embarrassing position.

Its only a crash if it happens here! The Russian markets just crashed 33% over the weekend, eh? That 100 Ruble stock was worth $US 15.873 on Friday but is now worth $US 10.562 on Monday morning. Well, not taking into account the prodigious losses recently suffered prior to the 'adjustment of the trading band'. Neat language.

BTW the 'crash' back in the 1920's and 30's was a world wide phenomenon which started in 1927 and only finished after about 1932 when it washed ashore in 'Merika. We were one of the last. The folks back then still thought right up till the end that 'it was a new era', blah, blah, blah.
We have been on the slippery slope and gaining speed on a global basis since Spring of 1997, IMHO.

Do agree with you that trying to predict the next day's DOW is fatal to one's reputation. Some just havin' a good time at other expense.

All quotes except Kitco showing gold up? Gold price?

Russia lets ruble fall in policy U-turn
http://cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9808/17/RB000813.reut.html

The following message was sent out 8 months when Gold was still above 300.

Quite accurate eh?

Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 22:52
 ( Dippie&Chak&Panda ) ID#2082:
You bring it on...

Panda - I see gold going lower and below 300 is the only place that is lower. 280...285...290...sounds good. I see some floor in the 280 region but once it gets there what is holding it?? I do think 270 is a stretch and will be WAY less bearish around there ( hasn't been there for 17 years ) but, again, what will hold it?? Stox crash? War? Famine? I don't know or care. It is all so unreal anyway but I will go with the current trend and follow the charts NOT the funnymentals. As for the currencies...I am VERY bullish on the Mark and Swiss. These need to get some play before gold does. Buy the dips, no?? Can never count out the US$ but I will not play this one...


away...to Knox some heads
knows

I only drop in anymore to read your stuff. And JD's and a few others.........this, this kitco.....it can be consuming..............yet very enjoyable.

and no autographs of late........
away....from this.....this kitco......AGULP to Spuds and all

and my 'puta was done broked. so i kicked it....and changed the hard drive ( 7.2gig ) and loaded win98 and changed modem and kicked it again and........well then i looked at Macs.......and sighed....oh well...........i is a PC dude.

Some kindly Kitco poster gave us this quick source for POG. Be
sure to re-load if you use it often.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif

Where is the old EB, swaggering confidently into the bar, a wink and a grin, a well placed pinch or two? ( cough ) . No need to loose it over a ... lets see ... "exercise" you call it now? Okey dokey, Golden Cheesefang & I will remind you come December.

Don't worry old bean, you'll have better days. Glad to hear your behind gold ; ) Spudders shovels his worthless FedResNotes into unsoiled Canadian Maples ( 1/4 & 1/10 ounce - pricey premium - ouch! ) -- I'll have none of those US Treasury Eagles minted from captured Nazi gold.

top o'the morning to ya : )
Spudders

ClitTongue survival depends on the stock market. The PPT will push the market higher today. Then Greenspan will cut rates tommorow. With all the fear in the market right now that should produce a tradeable rally.
It won't last but this market is a dangerous short right now.

P.S. Did you hear they ran a Viagra test on 100 lawyers?

Results:
23% reported improved sexual activity
14% reported no effect
63% reported they grew taller

Got Gold?

thank you sir. That was when I was eating more wheaties........

I am still waiting on the Mark and Swiss.......but I made some good bucks whilst waiting.......ya know.

away......to the grind


Allen
You are so right. I am no historian, and that kinda pisses me off at moments like these, but NZ was in depression from 1918 throughout the 20's, as a result of WWI.
May be one day all this stuff will be on the net, but the 20's were extremely depressed times down under especially the rural heartland. The returning soldiers from WWI were given land to break in instead of wages. Most had been bankrupted by 1922.

We don't know how lucky we are!
We don't know how lucky we are!

Long DEC silver from 5.10 stops at 5.08.

Current Positions

Long Dec Silver from 5.10
Long Dec wheat from 2.72 stop 2.68
Long Sept SnP from 1052.50

Thanks! I have about 5 , this one shows gold up also. Guess Kitco is wrong... should have known

SELL!




( this is NOT a recommendation to buy or SELL! )

http://www.nandotimes.com/newsroom/ntn/world/081798/world2_3883.html

Realistic
Some dam fine retrieval from your archives. If you don't mind me asking, what software are you using?

Credit where it's due!


Take a bow,

your ness!


aurator_@_presence_of_ness~~~~ol~~~

I have one. Thinkin' about buyin ANOTHER or two. They are beautiful....and they have a GUA-RA-DAMN-TEE! ( for when gold takes ANOTHER plunge ) And they have numismatic value and are becoming increasingly rarer ( more rare ) . And they are PURE.
away......yep


tolly
It's 03:45 hereabouts, I laughed so much I gagged!

It has made quite a mess!


But as the new BIOMAT
=====\"

detergent can deal with even the
most stubborn stains caused by what has
euphemistically been called DNA
material."

I'll not send you a bill to clean my poota screen

Of course there is always spot price, versus December.

It's the Platinum isn't it , come on , you can tell us.


Do Philharmonicas have numismatic value?
Do Billandmoninacas have pneumatic value?


Life's little puzzles..

zzzzz

So right, I flew my plane into a tree this morning.

U.S. orders embassy workers out of Pakistan
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19980817/wl/pakistan_4.html

Need up-to-date spot quote for Monica's dress.

1. Any devaluation or a reneg will cause people to move away from paper money.
2. Cheap raw materials and labor to undermine commodity prices further.
3. Pressure on South East Asia currencies. The second phase of Asian devaluation is about to begin.
4. Political chaos in Western Europe. German banks to suffer the most.
5. Increasing American trade deficit.
6. Exports to to Russia by any country to slow down dramatically for lack of foreign exchange to pay for it.
7. Increasing poverty in Russia.
8. Selling of US equity securities by foreign investors to raise capital.
9. lack of confidence in any Russian regime.

The markets were disintegrating in a wave like fashion across the globe from 1926 through 1929 ( and after that as well ) before the USA took its hit. Once we got hit we were mauled by the bear a few times ( down to 10% of peak prices by 1932 ( ? ) ) .

The WWI thingie was a travesty. The US shot its own veterans who had come to Washington, DC in order to protest the withholding of promised bonus pay. Some of our brave miliary brass cut their own men down in 1921 They were unarmed and some had their families with them. They had encamped in one of the parks in the capitol. I think they were called 'bonus marchers'. A *REAL* threat to civil order ( those who insist that the government honor its debts and veterans ) . A sad day indeed. I think it was Patton who wrote a nice little ditty about using the military to quell 'domestic disturbances'. He as a major then.

Reagan, of course, was also mustering and drilling the California National Guard ( in secret ) in the late 1960's to do the same things to war protesters. He thought they would bring down the nation ( !? ) simply because they didn't support the government's position on Vietnam AND had the nerve to publicly protest.

America the beautiful .. or something like that, anyway.

scared money running to the USA and some of it goes into the DOW and S&P indices, but mostly bonds. Yen and Yuan and all the others. Same thing happend last time ( 1920's ) . Money just keeps looking for a place to hide; shelter from the storm.

Y Worry
Dates to be aware of in the Year 2000 problem, commonly known as Y2K, when date glitches may threaten computer operations.
April 1, 1999: Start of fiscal year 2000 for Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom.
Aug. 22, 1999: The end of the first 1,024-week cycle for the Global Positioning System network.
Sept. 9, 1999: A potential failure of programs in which groups of 9s or 0s were used as special program markers. Date is 9/9/99.
Jan. 1, 2000: The Year 2000 failure.
Feb. 29, 2000: Failure of programs that did not count 2000 as a leap year.
Jan. 19, 2038: The end of the 32-bit Unix time cycle. The operating system will not accept any dates past this point.
Jan. 1, 10000: Y10K failure. Programs that use four-digit years will fail.
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/t000074992.html

You forgot to list national socialist resurgance. If the Russians go facist I think they will make German facism look like pansies. Watch this. The Russian people have been through this so many times that they are all probably taking bets as to the date it will happen, rather than wondering if it will happen.

Oris, was this one of your concerns from info you got last week???

20 cents from Friday. Lease rates are unchanged. POG is just
following the exchange rates wih the USD now. Yawn.

Yeah - the cash costs of digital development are low, but what about the capital costs? Gotta buy a machine, gotta buy a high end printer, dot, dot, dot. What are the capital costs of a silver-based set-up? Camera included? About $12. I would hazard a guess that 0.2% of the world's population can afford to get into digital whereas perhaps 20% can go buy an el-cheapo film 'n' camera setup and away they go.

Final word - silver based cameras ain't going anywhere soon. One day perhaps, but not right now.

from the land of fish, traffic and IMF-haters ( it's true! )

sam__a.

So soon you pass judgment! The trading day has scarcely begun and already you wish to castigate my call for a hard down Monday close! Let us wait to see what the close today bringeth! Once again, in the FULLNESS of time! 50 points up or down is mere noise!

As for EBlosin'mybutinDisneystockbut lovin'itcuzI'magluttonforpunishment--

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...BURP!!

When is Clinton due to go before ( sort of ) the grand jury?

It is not Ken Starr's Grand Jury...NO IT IS NOT...It is a Grand Jury of by and for the people, funded by the people...

All other Grand Jury individuals that testify ARE NOT allowed to have their counsel in the room during their testimony...

Clintler is totally responsible for the cost of the Grand Jury.

Clintler is TOTALLY responsible for HIS actions.

Clintler and the administration are TOTALLY responsible for the spin and ruse put forth on the American people since the inception of the Grand Jury...

A vast right wing conspiracy did not unzip Clintler's zipper...

This investigation is not about Monica, it is about a long list of improper activities, many of which may be criminal and possibly fall into the area of treason...

And last but not least, don't the Jack's asses in the media realize that every time they say they have a LEAK from the White House the entire country is laughing at them...

Can anybody let me have a price for us silver dollars and also does the date make a difference
thk in advance

cpo_uk

1 p.m. est

Take the time to bookmark this site & check in every day or so.
Quite an eye-opening site in Australia. Probably the beginning of a
major political turn in this country.
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/daily.html

It was a pre-season game, remember? Dorsey Levens hasn't even stepped on the field yet, and the Packers 2nd and 3rd string wannabe's played 3/4 of the game--just wait till the season starts--they'll be kickin' ole'EB'sbuttaroundtheDowblockwithrecklessabandon! Heh..heh..heh!!

$7.00 on common date in good condition, and yes some dates and mints are much more desirable.

Tsclaw ...
I got of talking about it.. It
just lay there .. I worry about
Siama .. no rand devaluation
assistance there as Mali is
franc zone. I dont think the
management is going to screw
anyone though.
To all ..
The Economist Hamburger standard
has the rand undervalued by 50 %
at 6.3.

Bottom line--IT'S A BEAR MARKET AND YOUR'RE LOOOOOOOOONG GONE!! Heh..heh..heh!

many thanks
cpo-uk

This rally stinks. Strictly a big cap affair. Russel 2000 down a little and NASDAQ has hardly budged. A sharp last hour selloff would not surprise me. In any event this bounce won't last long.

http://www.coin-universe.com/prices/date/daily/morgan_silver_regular_prices.html

http://www.coin-universe.com/prices/date/daily/peace_dollar_prices.html

On THAT we are in TOTAL agreement! Way too much bullscheiss sentiment to be any kind of a bottom exceptin' Eb's! We need a DRAMATIC WASHOUT ON BILLION SHARE VOLUME to be lookin' for any kind of tradeable rally! Should get it before the end of the week! Time will tell!

Go to your coin store and buy a redbook, the prices are dealer retail but it lists total mintages and will provide a guide to which coins have a premium.

several days ago. Are you a "real music" lover? As in Bluegrass or
the like? Thought I saw a post from you some time ago about listening
to a David Grisman album. He's a great mandolin player!
See ya, Foxman

Allen, info was in regard that some extremes are
quite possible on the background of complete mistrust
in the present regime and etc. I can not rule out
Russian fashists as a potential threat, but hope it
will not happen, I believe Commies may be more
successful in this situation. Fashists are popular
enough in modern Russia, but there are some people
who would probably oppose them actively, just by
killing bastards on the spot. Of course, it would
trigger violence, which worries me most of all...
Current situation may create some kind of nationalist
goverment, which will be only slightly better then pure
fashism, with a lot of Communists-Nationalists in it -
you figure out how to call such zoo...

In any case, so called "progressive forces", which are
known to be friendly to and supported by the West, are in
deep sh*t right now. Crowd wants something DIFFERENT.

We got to watch out for the Vike's. They are not to be underestimated. It's been a long time since I lived in Wisconsin, but how did this "cheesehead" thing come about? Back in Vince's day, we were Packer Backers. ( Of course, to be a Packer Backer could be easily misconstrued in a place like San Francisco or New York )

What foods have good storability? .....before there are executive orders against stocking up.

to all ..
I heard today that the Clinton Grand Jury consists
of 25 people. 12 of them are Black women. Is that
representative ????

Also .. on this very same point .. how come there
aren't more short White guys on basketball teams.

To Tolerant1
Shaved legs and armpits .. you hit
my weak spot.

but all is not the same with respect to lease rates for gold.

Consider:

Jan. 8, 1998, POG was $277 and one month gold lease was 1.63% while
one year gold lease was 1.75%.

Aug. 17, 1998, POG is $284 and one month gold lease is at 0.80% and
one year gold lease is 1.70%.

ANALYSIS:

Low lease rates for one month gold indicate low demand for short
term speculative attack ( shorting ) . In Jan., one month lease was
at 1.63%, indicating many people willing to lease gold in order to
short gold lower. Now one month lease rates @ .8% are so low that
the only interpretation is that demand for speculative shorting is
near historic lows. THE DEMAND FOR SHORTING GOLD IS LOWER NOW BY
FAR, THAN IT WAS WHEN GOLD WAS 5 DOLLARS LOWER IN JAN. This implies
a near term bottom for gold.

Low lease rates for one year gold indicates low demand for hedging.
That is to say, gold producers are not forward selling gold by
borrowing gold from CBs to sell now, in order to replace the
borrowed gold a year from now with new mine production. Hedging
activity is lower now at 1.70% lease rates than it was in Jan at 1.75%,
yet Jan was the all-time low. I recall in Jan, that there was much
talk about producers buying back their hedges and indeed KGM just made
such an announcement. So producer forward selling is bottoming, just
like in Jan. IMHO, this also implies we are at or near the bottom in
gold.

We are as near to the bottom in gold as the leasing strategy can
operate to drop the price. If gold goes down to retest its lows
from here, it will be strickly a function of the rise in the USD.

The price of common-date silver dollars is slowly moving up. All but
the most common year ( 1921 Morgan-type ) are now close to US$8.00 and
higher. Here's a nice idea: I have been buying 1900 date,
that is the year 1900, dollars and have been offering 10.00 each. They
are not easy to find, but are not really "worth" more. I think of the
fun I will have, giving them away as 2000 approaches. I already gave
away one, with a post-it-note scrap attached to it just above and
covering the date. On the post-it, I wrote "2000". So the
recipient can lift the flap, and, voila, the 2000 becomes 1900. %^ )

If you really want to know how low you can go, go back and re-read EB's mindless tirades!

and I love Dave Grisman, first album I found years ago was Old and In the Way, Grisman, Jerry Garcia...great stuff...

Indeed! Something different is what they may get, but not something they will like after it arrives.

What you describe sounds to me like what is called a 'chimera'. The definition being an animal made from the parts of other animals, typically used in myths to portray the unusual and dangerous. An example would be the Medusa; a woman whose hair is a swarth of snakes and who can turn you into stone if you look into her eyes. Or the Centaur, who was a half man, half horse carnivor who ate men if they even made it to the center of a particular maze. ( The Ancient Greeks had some very fascinating imaginations, no? ) .

that horrible, terror stricken, evil empire, known as RSA...HUGE GRIN on the Island that is Long, uh huh, oh yeah, by the way, Reify's wife is from RSA...lovely, lovely LADY through and through...

I figure you will have the last laugh when RSA gold stocks take off at the speed of light, which I understand is GOLDEN...

( The Ancient Greeks had some very fascinating imaginations, no? ) No more so than those who elected Clintler?...eh...

for Info
SGoly went ex div on August 10.
Paid $0.32 semi annual .. makes
21 % div annually. I can cope with
that.

Good to hear you still know the difference between NFC CENTRAL FOOTBALL and what passes for the game in the rest of the NFL! What a division! Vikings,Packers, Lions, Bears, Buccaneers--anybody who wins THAT division
year after year, like the Packers have done, deserves to be crowned with a GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD and the Vince Lombardi Trophy! Those central division games are beer-bashin' brawls!! Anybody who steps onto the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field before a perpetually sold-out crowd of Packer-Backers wearin' the green and gold and a cheesehead, knows they are in for one hell of a contest! 33 straight times the Pack defended the honor and dignity of football's finest at Lambeau Field until yesterday, when three freak turnovers finally ended the streak!! 33 STRAIGHT HOME VICTORIES OVER ALMOST EVERY TEAM IN THE NFL!!! THAT'S WHY I AM PROUD TO WEAR MY GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD AND WEAR THE GREEN AND GOLD OF VINCE LOMBARDI, RAY NITSCHKE, JIM TAYLOR, BART STARR, DON HUTSON, REGGIE WHITE and 3-time NFL MVP, BRETT FAVRE!! GREEN BAY IS TO FOOTBALL WHAT GOLD IS TO PAPER!! PRECIOUS!! TIMELESS!! AND IMMORTAL!!

if the US market looks weak.

Currency crisis...gold is a currency. Fear is starting to show.

Tom

. . . sp speaks Clinton.

Somebody better go and warn EBloooonggone!Some rally..ommy!Heh..heh..heh!

Veteran analyst and longtime survivor of numerous Bear Markets, the venerable Gene Inger, considers the dire developments in the Far-East as the prime motive negative force affecting Wall Street.

Inger astutely observes, " Fears Japan's Yen's . . . further weakening may erode sufficiently to force China's hand, to devalue their Yuan, remains the major international dilemma. One could easily argue that China protests defense of the Yuan too much; typically something seen before a country goes ahead and does the deed."

Market maven Inger also shares his weekly comprehensive review of all
facets of the US stock market. For full Inger full market analysis see URL below -- it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/inger081398.html

Sounds like China and Eb have somethin' in common! Heh..heh..heh!

Thanks for the post from Gene Inger, he sounds like a "regular guy" with a good bit of common sense, and I liked the read. That's about as dead on as I've heard it, IMHO.

check weekend posts. Noticed all the Sunday talk shows were about your buddy Clintler. Even Sammy D. ( Donaldson ; that stalwart of the liberal left ) , asked a couple of sensible questions on Sunday A.M.

You are such a worry wart! What has gotten into you?

Whatever you buy must be sealed in air tight packages and filled with inert gas to drive out the oxygen. ( Gasses could be CO2 from dry ice, nitrogen from a small tank with regular ) Store in cool, dark place. I think that most people would recognize the wisdom of storage in small packages for ease of division and/or transportation as necessary. But large plastic barrels ( which formerly held fruit juice concentrate ) are convenient for keeping nasties from nibbling through the bags. ( Can be had from local milk bottling plants )

Whole grains retain their nutritional value better and longer. But you need to grind them and cook into a flat bread at least. As a hot cereal its OK. Can be fried also, for variety.

Hand grinders are getting back ordered so do not delay if that is your route. Hey, people hand ground grain for thousands of years with rocks, right? Its still do-able. Most grinders are just mechanized stones. But if you ever have to grind grain in the woods, use a rock that will not powder into your floor or you may not like your bread and need a dentist pretty soon to boot. ( fresh granite or basalt stone without fractures is good ) .

Wheat ( hard red, either spring of winter wheat ) 40%
Corn ( either hard white or yellow, even 'popcorn' ) 40%
Beans ( dry beans most varieties will work OK ) 30%

This makes a protein balanced bread ( has all essential amino acids ) .

Olive oil in 3 or 5 liter cans.

Sea salt ( contains iodine and other trace minerals )

Long lasting Multi-vitamins ( sic - most will last pretty long if you do not break the seal and keep them in a cool place. Health food store like GNC or Vitamin World. Solgar VM-75 looks good to me. )

Canned meats are really quite reasonable right now at places like Sam's or BJ's. Chicken, Tuna/Albacor, Salmon. I have found Danish canned hams at $3.50 or less marked Expiration 2002 ( though this may not interest you ) . As with anything keep this stuff cool and dry. A starvation diet to us is what most of the rest of the world lives on every day.

One could add dry vegitables, peanut butter, jams and candies to this list. Might add dry skim milk, brown sugar, baking soda/powder, yeast and powdered eggs.

White rice will last much longer than brown, but brown will last at least 2 years if you seal it in a inert gas flooded packaging.

Herbs and spices are important both psychologically and possibly health wise ( Cayenne is said to help many ailments ) . Garlic is a must. It is very easy to grow too.

Chickens are very useful since they can add a nice egg or two a day. They need light to produce well. But they can eat things ( bugs, grass, weeds ) you and I would not and make a nice little fresh package of protein. ( need to have a bag of limestone to help them make shells well though ) They will lay eggs for up to 3 years if you treat them right.

Need plastic containers for water collection and storage. I would not forget Calcium Hypochlorite ( pool chlorine w/o additives ) and detergent soaps.

Hope this helps.

If you are just trying to survive you MUST pay attention to nutritional balance to keep from becoming a victim of disease. Nutritionally weakened people ( including those under alot of stress without proper nutritional supplimentation to make up for stress related defeciencies ) will also become carriers of disease since they become infected and can spread this to those who are near them.

Some advocate getting a series of vacinations similar to what you would do if you were going overseas. IMHO that is a reasonable step.

Thanks appreciated , got gold just begining to look at silver ( in the UK )
so having seen a few silver dollars will pass by check the dates and hagle 9.00 each around US$15.00
and will probably add a few kilo bars ( silver )
thanks
cpo_uk

However I am trying to recall the last time the currencies of the world were fluctuating this much. Remember all the meetings of financial ministers a few months ago. The result seems to be that the system is broken.

What money is safe? The US$? We shall watch and wait. The US markets had better stay up or the US$ will sink.

Tom

http://www.perthmint.com.au/collector_issues/collector_guide/precious_metals/multi_metal/index.shtml
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Special Y2k date to watch for - 1st Jan 1999 - Jo Anne effect.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1f.htm

I am having the same sick feeling about Y2K which I had about the economy that got me started on gold accumulation. It is probably just as wrong but the penalty for misjudgement is worse for underpreparation than overpreparation.

Our financial systems have become so fine tuned due to computerization that I think any slowdown of systems will have calamitous effects. The economy depends on the current velocity and accuracy of information. It has completely discounted the risk associated with a slowdown, or even manual proccessing, of data. So in my opinion, even without a Y2K shutdown default scenario, a slowdown of financial systems will in itself lead to severe dislocations.

Then there is the perception of trouble. Mass psychology, right or wrong, will lead to hoarding and shortages of money and essential supplies.

I dont want to start thinking of preparations in 1999 when the media circus begins and laws against hoarding are enacted. These laws will really spook people.

Excellent post, packed with excellent guidance. I have copied it for reference.

You know, the nature of Y2K is such that it is largely possible to prepare in such a way that very little money will have been wasted if the actual scenario turns out to be somewhat tame.

We have such faith in "the system." Y2K or not, a little food storage is not a bad idea.

By IAN STEWART Associated Press Writer

KINSHASA, Congo ( AP ) -- With an army of rebel fighters closing in on his capital, Congo President Laurent Kabila declared defiantly today that his government will arm the people and prevail. The embattled president also lashed out at the international community and accused the West of plotting against his government.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1z.htm

Many thanks a very usefull site will give a thorough look must get out for a pint so humid roday

go gold & Silver
cpo_uk

http://www.bergen.com:80/biz/galbraith199808165.htm

DOW +111

There, how's that?

Tom

DOW +120 Tom, er uh, Tom, I think it's stuck.

Tom?

Seems simply enough and not the least bit expensive ( considering the alternative ) . Insurance in its most elemental form, practised by people for thousands of years ) .

Might add ..

( One or more ) 20# propane tank ( s ) with regular and hose to hook up to camp stove ( with piezo-electric sparker/igniter ) . But DO NOT STORE THE CYLINDER INSIDE. Keep it locked in the outside storage shed. An older couple near here a few years ago had put their cylinder down in the basement. It leaked and filled the basement with gas. The gentleman got up in the early hours to use the toilet. The pump was located in the basement, ( the arc from the relay ) ignited the gas when he flushed the toilet. He and his wife were both killed as well as the house demolished. A pitiful situation.

One Last thing. Electricity

Buy 2 each 6 volt 'golf cart' deep cycle batteries, a car alernator ( and belt ) and 1500 watt inverter ( DAMARK $350 ) . Rig your indoor excersize bike up to drive the alternator to charge your batteries. Use for radio and occational light usage. You might want to get a volt/ohm meter to check the voltage on the batteries ( keep it at or above 12.8 volts under load ) . If the voltage drops below this, take a ride. Good excersize if you can't get outside for one reason or another.


Sung to the tune of "These are a Few of My Favorite Things".

Thick plastic sheeting and duct tape aplenty;
wire and twine and rope and some netting;
some basic tools that you don't need to plug in;
these are a few of my favorite things!

When Y2K bites!
When the Pres siiiiings!
When the Markets craaaaaaaaaaaaash!
I simply recount all my favorite things,
and then I don't feeeeeeel so baaaaaad.

you below...In addition, last night, Reify, his lovely wife, Me Mumm and I had dinner and had a delightful time, tequila, fine food, great company, we met at Canterbury Ales on NY ave. in Huntington...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:09
Mike Sheller ( Yesterday's Kitco Konvocation ) ID#347447:
The Saturday, August 15th meeting of a small group of Kitcoites on lovely Long Island, New York was a resounding success, so I will resound it for you all here in this report. Gathered at the pretty waterside town of Cold Spring Harbor was tolerant 1, reify and his lovely wife, crystal ball and his charming girlfriend, bill in oregon ( in New York for the day ) , and yours truly.

The mid-day convocation began with introductions and amazed looks at each other as we tried to put real faces with imagined impressions carried for so long. Since I had already visited with tolerant on a couple of prior occasions, I was able to at least avoid THAT shock. Reify and Bill distributed thoughtful gifts, and Crystal Ball passed around some magnificent historical gold and silver U.S. coins. I think he got them all back, but I'm not absolutely sure.

Lunch was enjoyed in the nearby, and delightful town of Huntington, always an elegant, yet homey place to visit. A remarkable combination of New York sophistication and North Shore Long Island casualness and historical charm. A perfect August afternoon shone brightly outside as we munched and quaffed at Finnegan's bar and restaurant, in a cool, slightly dim atmosphere of dark wood, tons of intriquing old photographs, cigarette smoke and the distinct smell of beer. The glints of sunlight and occasional glimpses of the people outside in their shorts and tank tops passing by coming through the window was a nice counterpoint to the festivities inside. Between mouthfuls of fish n' chips, Irish stew, and rigatoni ala Vodka, we laughed, talked about gold ( laughing even harder ) and the markets, and talked about all you guys and gals that weren't there.

Between remarks like "So did you hear from Squirrel?", "How about sam-A," "Prometheus said...", bystanders ( and sitters ) at the bar must have thought we were some kind of gangland meeting, or something. Lunch, needless to say, took up most of the day, and when we returned to the hotel where reify and bill were staying, we were treated to some real, live, actual photos of some kitcoites that reify had smuggled into the country with him. Strad, Sharefin, and several more were exposed to our incredulous gaze one by one, like french postcards being hawked outside a schoolyard.

Saying goodby to each other was definitely a very family experience. It was a warm day in more ways than even el Nino could have stimulated. In all it was a wonderful example of that amazing new phenomenon that tolerant has been talking about lately - ACTUAL REALITY. It has a few bugs, but I think it's going to work.

?

something is going to give...and not to long from now.

We watch...my physical just sits and waits. My gold shares down a little. Will buy more on the upswing.. Time...it passes, Yes?

Tom

I don't think we'll have to worry about it crshing today.

How small do they make Guillotines...? Also do they make small coffins for the ofending member...

Not today. Things look good. The currency system is still broke. We got flight to safety. BTW...where is the next stop for this train?

Tom

Dunno guy, I don't think this is the rally we're waiting for either. Nice little pop, but there still isn't anything in it. Need to be at a point where the buyers feel safe buying, and after a few weeks, I don't think they feel that way, maybe later ( or lower ) .

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/081798/politicst_9636.html

"In Soviet times, we had the sense of confidence in the future,'' he said. "And now Yeltsin  and you Americans  have stolen it from us.''

Russians flabbergasted by ruble's plunge, blame the government
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0817/i_ap_0817_61.sml

There. I think I got it fixed. Gee, this is fun. I think I'll see if I can fly it in for a nice soft landing.

Tom

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...what do you think he would come away with...???

WASHINGTON, Aug 17 ( Reuters ) - Microsoft Corp ( MSFT - news ) co-founder Paul Allen has sold over $1.3 billion
worth of the software company's common shares since May and plans to unload over $91 million more, a recent regulatory
filing showed.

From May 11 through August 6, Allen sold 13,080,000 shares for well over $1.3 billion, a Form 144 date-stamped August 14 with the Securities and
Exchange Commission said.

Yeltsin+blue dress: he would get a promise to get
married as soon as he gives away all his nukes...

Yeah, all 4 hours on ML...Uh huh...NOT!

Hope that link on SLANG in English helped ya buddy...

"No, really, I think Mr. Allen was just interested in gathering some of the fruits of his many years of labor in building Microsoft into the most successfull computer technology firm on the planet. There is NO truth to the rumor that he has bought a small island with a landing strip OR gold."

Personal Secretary for Paul Allen answering questions from a gaggle of reporters outside of Microsoft headquarters at Redmond, Washington.

Michel ! I thought you and he were best buddies. Seriously, glad you all had good time, we need to do something like that in North Texas area.

Could you level that off at 8550 by 16:00? TIA

to foul the fine Island that is Long air by mentioning the dog defiler Camdesuss...it is only recently that the Island that is Long had to suffer the stench of Heir Clintler...

and in addition...the air was filled with golden thoughts, smiles, laughter and warmth...within which the dog defiler had no place...

and God bless the Great state of Texas and one more gulp to that...uh huh

That the senior golds are so very quiet!

I show $289.20............

Comex Dec Silver closed @ 5.15 down .04 ///I'll post the Metal
Warehouse totals about a half hour from now...

analysts all say that Clintler SHOULD tell the truth...DUH!!! This man has lied and lied and lied again...and if he tells the truth once because he has zero option he gets forgiven...THIS is NOT about Monica but the media, politicians and analysts keep pounding that point home...

Now, back to the brass tacks of the matter and how stupid do these Jack's ass's think me or you are?

As generally understood, propaganda is opinion expressed for the purpose of influencing actions of individuals or groups... Propaganda thus differs fundamentally from scientific analysis. The propagandist tries to "put something across," good or bad. The scientist does not try to put anything across; he devotes his life to the discovery of new facts and principles. The propagandist seldom wants careful scrutiny and criticism; his object is to bring about a specific action. The scientist, on the other hand, is always prepared for and wants the most careful scrutiny and criticism of his facts and ideas.
Alfred McLung Lee & Elizabeth Bryant Lee, The Fine Art of Propaganda, 1939.

http://carmen.artsci.washington.edu/propaganda/home.htm

The American will have one more opportunity to "right his wrongs" and help to put an end to the spreading global currency devastation. The only options available to him at this stage are; a ) a minimum 1/4 point drop in his interest rates and/or b ) a controlled devaluation of the US$ versus Gold. If he should fail to seize this final opportunity to act, his All-Mighty Buck will suffer the full force of the world's collective wrath.

dodging, womanizing bastard. He's committed more crimes than we'll
ever know. You're right. It's not about ML. It's about perjury.
When he testified in the Paula Jones trial, he committed perjery,
not to hide the ML affair, but to protect his butt from this lawsuit!
The independent prosecutor ( thus representing the American people )
was trying to establish a pattern by this ML questioning during the
Paula Jones trial, and has thus verified this pattern!! I think that
Klinton is going down, should go down, and should never have been elected
in the 1st place!!! Whew! Alottatyping...Foxman

and a gulp to ya buddy...

OK.

You blew it today but this rally still stinks. Another day or two possibly, then we go down the tubes again.

The DOW to end around +140 today.
Of course, there's 3 minutes of trading left
And it's at +143 right now.

Regards,

MGoingoutonalimbhere ( Go Gold! )

Market cannot have a sustained rebound until the big cap darlings come down hard. Rallies like today's merely postpone the day of reckoning a little.

are you still long S&P. Good call by the way.

http://www.virtent.com/vote/quiz.html

Ooops. This is tricky. I let the nose get up a little too much and I think I'm going to hit about twenty points high.

Not a bad rally all in all. But I don't see a tick above 400. Don't think the bulls have much to cheer about yet.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 17

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,084,131 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 77,661,721 - 592,938 troy ounces
Copper 57,997 + 0 short tons

******************************************************************
How much more drawdown will it take before shorts start covering?
My understanding from the COT reports last Friday, is that speculators
are heavily on the short side ( people like Martin Armstrong I presume )
I guess what's needed is for commercials to start increasing their
long positions. A combination of commercials going long and speculators
covering ought to turn Silver around if we keep seeing these drawdowns!
The question is how far will they let it go? Foxman

Amazing call!

Dog Bones average will NOT FALL
until BARKING STOPS. When Barking
stops .. I take puts.. But NOT YET.

Wonder who was buying big chunks of TALK and OMKT today...

The market internals were awful. Small cap averages virtually flat. Hope the Dow rallies another 100-200 points before topping out so I can buy some BEARX real cheap.

Is that in Eligible or Registered? Half a million ounces at a time; I'd like to see that in the gold arena. Wouldn't THAT kick some behind, eh ;- )

What is your prediction for Tuesday and the entire week?

For reasons not discussed here. And it will not stop with a simple market drop. Don't hold your breath. See the week of the 14th September.

considered in oversupply as long as a single ounce is left in
COMEX stockpiles. We still have 62 business days left of
"excess" supplies at that typical 600 000 oz per day draw down.

A deflating we shall go, deflating we shall go, tra la la la la la,
a deflating we shall go.

Let us hope that when your dogs cease barking the VIX will be back under 20 again. Then we can buy more puts for the dollar. VIX closed at 31 from a high of 35+ on the open.

I'm lookin' to do likewise. ..... Bearx as opposed to Rydex?

You keep closer tabs on the funds than I do. Is one measurably better than the other??

Where do you get the VIX numbers?

URSA is a bear index fund. Short the S&P 500. BEARX is an actively managed bear fund. Heavily short NASDAQ issues

If this is true why are the South East Asians reputed to sell their gold?
Standard answers: You can't eat gold. Or they don't have enough paper currencies after devaluation.

Then why were starving Indonesians selling stolen food on street corners at minimal price.

Are hidden Robin Hood type tendensies sufacing in these people?

Are the SEA's really starving and destitute, a few short years ago they were living happly in tribal enclaves, thesr people can endure hardships and logically they can always return, if stressed to the limit.

IF THE LIE IS BIG ENOUGHT MOST EVERYONE WILL BELIEVE IT.
The gold analysts who write about the SEA people selling their gold wholesale are defeating their purpose as the information providers for gold-bugs and keeping the price down so that the big cheeses ( no simularity to kitco's GCH ) to purchase it at a bargain.

Don't you think it will be the sudden surge in photpgraphic demand due to people buying cameras to take pictures of the Financial Advisers who have all jumped out their first floor windows? I think so, any way.

Unfortunately they will not have the opportunity to try again since the crowds of investors they led down the rose strewn path will beset them like packs of slavering wolves. Now THAT would be photogenic, wouldn't it be?

One can buy BEARX via Fidelity without paying any load or transactions fees. Not so for Ursa

Yeh, I completely underestimated the power of the confessional and the flight to quality by the world's hungry and unemployed masses! : ) Either Ma and Pa Kettle are too scared to pull the sell trigger just yet, or too bamboozeled by BC and the CNBC spinmeisters to fully understand the dire
implications of a global market meltdown to their retirement well being!
Whatever, the rally was hardly impressive! Indeed, it was anemic!! Only 500 million shares! A/D line even! 266 NEW LOWS to only 33 new highs!! Pathetic! Simply pathetic! Looks like after another meltdown in Asia tonight, we'll have to see a much harder move down this week than would have been the case had we washed out today on heavy volume and cleansed the system of its bullscheiss! Sure glad I'm a LONG TERM DISINVESTOR! Will be lookin' to add to my disinvestments as soon as this little countertrend rally exhausts itself--could have been today! DAVID TICE ON CNBC NOW! Says we have too much debt in the system! Will come back to haunt the market! ARCH CRAWFORD LATER! My congratulations to all who correctly called for a 150 point melt-up today after a Russian devaluation and an Asian market meltdown last night! You all know who you aren't! Cheese! Only 800 more points to go for another new high! Heh..heh..heh! Guess I can afford to give up 15 %. Don't wanna' appear to be too greedy, eh, EB? 'Specially with all that mutual fund pain and suffering out there in babyBOOMerville! Heh..heh..heh!

I have taken a renewed interest in the SP and have split screen charts of the SP with both tick charts or the VIX. Any interval but mostly I watch it on 5 min bars. Just started that recently. ..... The inverse relation of VIX to SP futures is amazing.

.

http://news.com/News/Item/0,4,25298,00.html?st.ne.ni.lh

hehehehehe.......

bloatware incorporated.

what hope have we that ALL critical software will be Y2K compliant if a major release of desktop software by the monopoly company with the biggest budgets still has stupid bugs like this?

Earl: What URL do yopu use for VIX?

Cheesehead: Today's rally seems to have had something to do with the VIX moving above 30. Even the fiend's superbear page said that such a reading could trigger a sharp rally.

With so many of the NASDAQ stocks already getting a hair cut; would Rydex Ursa present a significant advantage for percentages on the downside?? ............Just a thought. I would dearly love to make up for the congenital stupidity I displayed on the upside. .. {:- )

The Dow rose 150 points and advancing issues outnumbered declines by
less than 200.

TOTAL REGISTERED
40,181,321 0 0 0 0 40,181,321
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
38,073,338 0 592,938 -592,938 0 37,480,400
COMBINED TOTAL
78,254,659 0 592,938 -592,938 0 77,661,721
-------------------------------------------------------------

Great point about VIX. The VIX is still to high for bear to continue. Even though the market was up 150 points today the VIX still closed over 30. Today at one point it was up to 36 even though the market was barely down at the time.

This rally is a trap but it should be strong enough to burn a lot of shorts. Watch the VIX. It will tell you when to be short again.

Got Gold?

I wonder if any purchasers of DOW or S&P index funds will suffer a degree of buyers remorse--or will they sleep well at night?

Sometimes that's what it's all about.

got gold?

Sometimes it is of benefit to stand back from a situation and
try and figure out just what the hell is going on!

It is of great interest to try and answer the following guestion:
Why is it at this point in our history that we as a people focus on
the sexual habits of a President? This behavior has always occured in the past.
So why now? What is it about today that makes this is so important to our
psyche's?

I think the symbolism is pretty clear. Clinton is F***** a naive
young girl. It's the f****** that is the symbol. It is the sense of being
defiled and degraded that speakes to us. And the sense of being lied
to, the sense of trying to "keep it secret", so no one finds out.

And this is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been doing to
this once great Nation. It has, along with Congress, defiled and
degraded out money and therefor ourselves. WE are being f***** and
it is becoming all to apparent to a lot of us in this Nation that this
IS a degrading experience. And on top of that, to be continually lied
to is becoming intolerable for most of us.

I venture to say that if we had honest money, a good economy,
that we would not raise this issue to the importance that it has been.

So as we watch this saga continue, we watch knowing that there is
something much larger being played out here. We want this thing exposed.
We want it to stop. We want the quilty to pay.

The problem is: Alan Greenspam should be on trial, Congress should
be on trial. That is why we are so frustrated. So ANGRY. We want
the truth told. But it is the wrong truth that is on trial!!!!!

Maybe it is a beginning? But look how words are twisted.
Look at the bullshit that surrounds this issue. Does anyone think
that under these circumstances that "Real Money" has a chance?

Does anyone really think that the powers that be will give into
honest money? If there are all those dead bodies surrounding Clinton,
just how many dead bodies will it take to get honest money?

THAT IS THE QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IN THE FUTURE!!!!!

Thanks, GD

Yeh, I knew the VIX was too high ( too bearish ) but believed we would have one big volume washout on the downside this morning before cleansing the system for a nice tradeable countertrend rally! Now I believe we're destined to see much lower lows than would have been the case had we taken our medicine this morning! Whatever! Pay me now, or pay me later--the LONGS will PAY and PAY DEARLY! And I'll have no qualms at all about collecting! BEAR-X and short SPYders is the best way to collect from all the LONG BOOMers. IMHO

I don't use the net. I have a delayed quote feed from BMI that I have used for about 3 years. I think the cost is around $60 per month for all markets on a delayed basis. Because of the topography around my house relative to BMI's feed satellite, I have get the feed from my C band dish. Which means I have to hide the "magic clicker" so my roommate doesn't switch the system away from the data transponder. Pain in the butt.

For software, I have always used a DOS based system from Ensign. It was cheap and does most of what I need to do. ..... A reliance on all the myriad indicators is grossly overrated, IMO.

I would however like to do split screen charts with one or more being ratios of other charts. That's something this old software can't do. It will do ratios but only as full screen charts. Other than that it works perfectly fine.

Charts can be in normal bar, Japanese candlesticks or, as I have begun doing recently, use a one bar simple ma as a line chart. I have begun to like that very much. Especially since I am able to replace the bars instantly if needed. ..... Have to be a little careful since a line chart won't show a gap.

Yes the VIX hit a high of 35.98 on the open. A sharp spike. In the same time the SP only dropped about 3 points before moving swiftly back up. On a split screen they really look like mirror images of each other.

I got out at 1085.50 + 33 pts, may try and short above 1091

Lookin' for hefty downside action on AUG. 20-21! SHORT INFLATION HEDGES! LONG S&P until SEPT. 4 ( MARS-URANUS CONJUNCTION ) -SEPT. 6 when we will have a MAJOR CRASH LIKE '87! Arsch says to RUN FOR THE HILLS ON THIS RALLY OR GET SLAUGHTERED IN THE DOWNDRAFT! Bradley Model forecasting 35-50% DOWN INTO OCTOBER 29-31!! Heh..heh! Good ole' Arsch!

At the risk of carrying this VIX thingy too far; on July 23 the VIX as right at 20. That was the time to be buyin' them puts. ...... Buy low ( volatility ) and sell high ( volatility ) .

Very good test, my degree is in Hist Govt and I still missed 6, wonder how the average idiot who voted for the incumbant did? Pls tell Reify I am only able to receive email at work now, the computer is on its way to Garmisch and I will see him in April Thanks.

today's ... "daily laugh report" ... :: )

TODAY'S STOCK MARKET REPORT

Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary.

Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading.

Knives were up sharply.

Cows steered into a bull market.

Pencils lost a few points. ... while,
hiking equipment ... was trailing.

Elevators rose,
as escalators continued their slow decline.

Weights were up, in heavy trading.

But, light switches were off.

And,
mining equipment hit rock bottom.....as,
diapers remain unchanged.

Shipping lines stayed at an ....
'on - even keel' .

The market for raisins has, evidently,
dried up ...almost completely.

And - alas,
Coca Cola has fizzled, too.

While yet,
Caterpillar stock just inched up a bit...... or was it down.

Meanwhile,
Sun peaked..... just
at midday.


Balloon prices continued to inflate........
so much so, ( -with endless, abundant 'hot-air' ) ...that ...
finally..... they...
had to ...... 'pop' .


And batteries exploded,
in an attempt to recharge their limited,
and terminal
market.

and consider it done...

Many thanks, sorry I could not get to the Island that is Long, in fact my flight to Munich starts in Atlanta. Maybe next time.

On Aug 14 the XAU recorded a new low's of 59.90 but gold refused to confirm and closed at $284. Today, gold closed at $285 and the XAU at 60.31. This is a major none confirmation with major positive inplications. In the comming days, if gold stays where it's now , I'll conclude that the bottom has been seen and the next move is up. The upmove in gold probably will coincide with a big decline in equities.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.11. The 144 day moving average is 29.59

XAU/Spot Ratio = .212. The 144 day moving average is .252. There have been 13 occasions where the XAU has closed in the 60.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #11. The #1 ranking was on July 29, 1986, with a gold price of $352.10, an XAU of 60.20, producing an XAU/AU ratio of .171

Wrote a long post and lost it. Another reason to compose in a WP first. Heres a quick summary-

Hollywood still uses film even though they had the option of using much cheaper and easier videotape for a long time. Film looks much better than tape or digital for most purposes. Its what works to make money with movies. They wont change for a long time, if ever. Anyone know what India uses?

Xyz millions of amateur snapshot shooters can cheaply and easily start using film. The final product, a paper snapshot is better suited to their needs. Tack it to a wall, carry it in your purse wallet and view it anytime, mail it to relatives, capture a birthday party or tell a story with a series of snaps and keep it in an inexpensive, user friendly photo album. Try that with digital. And Advantix is kinda cool, I think it will catch on. And people can get digital files from their film anyway.

Some catalogers are switching to digital but its not clearly the way to go. Photojournalists might switch but they dont burn a lot film now.

Its no contest, real film wins for the near term future, IMO.

Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.84. The 144 day moving average is 50.91

The body count due to dishonest money is huge. Unspeakably huge. But dishonestly accounted. Naturally.

As I have said before, it is essential for government running on credit that the people believe they are paying taxes with real money. A significant number still do. Credit controls on cash will eventually disabuse most people of their mistaken notions. When people can't get their "their money" out of the "system", the will realize two things. That THE BANK is THE GOVERNMENT and that they do not own "their money". They will want something for money that they can control. And own.

Spot gold $296.73; spot silver $5.88; XAU 74.95.

He probably wishes Ted Kennedy had driven Monica home.

VIX was way OVERLY BEARISH ( under 20 ) for months when the bull was stormin' ahead, and at some point will be way OVERLY BULLISH ( over 30 ) for months now that the BEAR is bearin' down hard! The negative correlation on a day-to-day bais is not always as precise and clean as what you observed today! Be careful!

Spot gold $300.37; spot silver $5.65; XAU 78.28; Dow/Gold Ratio 28.10

What has happened to Steve Puetz?
Is he still posting?

It has come to my attention that there are some of you out there who would like to follow along in the daily DOW and S&P ups and downs. As you can see from these charts ( not updated for today yet ) , the DOW's rally today was not to be entirely unexpected based on a seasonally adjusted basis. The S&P is tracking even closer. Both are a tad low due to current economic conditions, but then, nothing is ever perfect.

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc001.htm

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc002.htm

Where do we find you on Silver at this point. Stocks continue to decline but the deflationary environment seems to over power that bullish fundlemental. Balance of Trade numbers may be a spark tomorrow for a dollar decline.

http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/sign_of_the_bear.htm

VERY interesting.

Puetz

Uh Huh

Are your researchers members of the PPT?

Is that where Purtz gets his particular brand of TA?

http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/sign_of_the_bear.htm

will slobber yourselves laughing...The Boy Ain't Right by Hank Hill

published by Regan Books an imprint of Harper Books

http://www.harpercollins.com

Actually it caught my attention ( Puetz and Cycles ) when Forbes published an article about them in April 98.

going to do when they find out the Grand Jury spent 10 minutes on ML and the rest on all the other 300 pages in the report going to Congress...

Actually it caught my attention ( Puetz and Cycles ) when Forbes published an article about them in April 98.

Cayenne - yes! And regular pepper & onion flakes.
Don't forget the Rolaids or generic equivalent.

I've also laid in an assortment of flavor extracts...
mint, peppermint, vanilla, almond, etc.

Raisens - so what if they get dry & hard in storage.
Cooked up with oatmeal or grits - they do fine.
I got a load of 'em half price when they had "expired".

Sardines are great too - though not everyone likes them.

What is the lowest xau/gold ratio you have on record? And if that ratio were applied to today's $285 spot, what xau value would that yield?

The reason I ask: Elliott Wavers have for years been predicting an xau bottom of 35. If that were to happen, and the xau/spot gold ratio did not exceed its historic low, what spot price would that yield? And might that be THE bottom?

Thanks in advance!

Squirrels liking sardines? Fox_man - liking that eligible draw down very well thank you sir.

mike sheller...your chickensh!t post left me rotff!!

soylent green is right around the corner.....as is a middle east embroglio...due to the erectus disgracius.

the time has come.....a facts a fact....it belongs to them...let's give
it back....-----as sung by an australian band whose name escapes
me...

the manipulated become the manipulators....as physics would dictate..
'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...' isaac newton

the pendulum of life is racing to meet the peopleo with its' gilded blade...
how many will know to step aside, and not try to ride??? very few....

my gold, and crude calls await chaos and flux.....dec 99---23$ strike crude calls are $220.....damn good buy imnshfo......

cherokee..!;..chaser.of.the.chicken.....to.feed.to.the.turkey.....

http://www.usagold.com/Scott.html

Pay me now or pay me later. I like the rhythm. We will watch this unfolding bear together. Yes?

Midnight Oil?

"The IMF is, in this case, unfortunately part of the problem,'' said Allen Sinai, senior global economist at Primark Decision Economics.

IMF policies in spotlight as Russia devalues
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0817/i_rt_0817_57.sml

good day on spoos eh. i've seen only two higher combined p/c volume ratios in the past two years, 4/4/97 and 10/30/97. 12/19/97 matched today.

If my memory serves the lowest recorded ratio was .171. That would give you a price of gold of $204 with an XAU of 35. That also ties in with some other predictions of have read of $196 for the low on gold.

Clinton will address the public tonight at 10:00 P.M., Eastern
Time.

How do you read it so far?

In your e-mail to me, of some months back....regarding...
".... a 'gold-standard'... is 'not stable'...." :

I agree - you are right.....except:

altho you say/said:
"nothing inherently stable, or stabilizing, in gold..."....

that is - perhaps, only from.....
from the stand-point of moments in time - of history's chapters...
when -....such as when ....::

Spain plundered the 'New World' - Mexico/Central & So. America...
and took back the bounty of looted gold, from the 'New World"
back to
'The Old World' ....

...looted from sacred artifacts/icons of the indgienous peoples of the
'New World'.

Of course, there can be...: "gold-inflation".

But when it occurs, which is, historically - extremely & very rare.

It happens because of plunder, deceit, and greed.

You 'charge' that a 'gold-standard' is not stable...... - nor
'standard'.

I'd agree, at brief times in history, this has been so;
but..... except for that....
I'd ask you......... also, to provide a more worthy, verifiable...
alternative .... ::

What politicican, or banking interest would you enlist, in gold's
stead...

to rule, govern, restain, discipline, oblige
human ity....to it's necessay & essential ...
equanimity, eager creation, and humble service ....
than the inherent governing order & law of integrity

that endure, triumphantly,
in the mostly missed
mirror of gold.

Gold, justly -

mirrors man's divinity...

in his devoted and inherent integrity

of loving service

to, from, and with..

his fellow-man/woman/child.....


upon this plane,
and this plan.

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
essene@k-online.com
goldfever@k-online.com

P.S.
This tumultuous, teeming...
thriving
world.....

what would it really be like,
if it were
truely
unfurled ?

P.S.S.

Who among us, forsaking ourselves
for others.....
and others.......

including financial entities and instituions colluding....
and their political power-brokers that yet be

Why do we pretend to ignore them....
enlisting their economic/corporate 'slaves'...

Will they endure
long enuf
and domimnant enuf...

to conquer the innate freedom of eternal spirit
that is the essence
and soul
of each individual of huimanity?

Such question, is answered....
and reflected....

in the inherent, and eternally secure -

unique, and
un-counterfibility.....

of the innate integrity ....
of the human soul, body, spirit and endeavor...
upon this earth & time....

of enduring gold,
and eternal, just,
equalizing, balancing, reflecting ....
golden love.

P.S.S.S.

9/27/97//kitco.com post::

"WHEN THE 'TENT' COLLAPSES...
( - 'tent' = global economy - built on paper money & artificial credit )
....

"IT WILL NOT BE THE 'CENTER-POST'... THAT GOES FIRST...
( - 'center-post' = US economy/markets/currency ) ....

...

"IT WILL BE THE 'SIDE-POSTS' ...... -
( - 'side-posts' = Europe, Mexico, Canada, Japan, China, Hong-Kong,
Mexico, So. Africa )
and Russia.... )

...

"AND EVEN THE 'STAKES', THAT GO ( -collapse -- currencies & economies, )
FIRST.
( - 'stakes' = Asian-Tigers, India, Pakistan, Middle-East, Africa, So.
America, Polynesia, etc. ) .


--------________________________.........................................

Always happy to put a smile on yer face. But i AM disgusted!

"Ovum Office"...."If Clintler lived in Middle East".... buddy, you slay me. Laughed out loud.

Digital images are not even close to making a significant dent in silver film sales yet.

The little $300 digital snapshot cameras only provide good enough quality for people making homebrew www pages, and tourists who like the idea of no film hassles and being able to print out as many copies of a picture as they like. Only computer literate tourists will buy them, though.

People aren't generally aware that a digital camera that can record publication-quality pictures has a base price of $5,000- before you buy your extra lenses & accessories. Even these don't produce the same quality as film, so they're being bought mainly by commercial web page developers, industrial & engineering photographers, etc.. To get silver-quality photos you will need a camera with 256kdpi spatial resolution and 32-bit colour resolution- which means fitting gigabytes of memory and a serious, power-hungry CPU into a camera someone can actually lift.

Fashion & lifestyle photogs. can't even think about using digital cameras yet. Kodachrome will be the mainstay of Vogue for a while yet.

How much film does a profession photographer go through. A friend of mine in the field shoots between 200 and 400 rolls a *day* on a shoot. The tourist trade is small beans compared to what the pros consume.

Kodak & Fuji are going to be buying a lot of silver for a long time, folks, in spite of all the digital camera hype.

- steve

If there is one indicator you can take as gospel as far as the markets are concerned, it's the disavowel of an impending devaluation by a government leader. When such promises are issued, it's time to short the sh*t out of the currency in question. Boris Yeltsin is merely the next in a long line of disfunctionaries to promise one thing and deliver another in short order.
Bears beware. Today the President of the United States confessed that he was f*cking around in the White House with a lassie not his wife, having lied about it under oath just a few months before.

Today Russia "devalued" their currency, if you could call the ruble such, and the people on the street blamed...who else?...America! As one "citizen" of thug-land put it to an American reporter, "In Soviet times, we had the sense of confidence in the future. And now Yeltsin...and you Americans...have stolen it." Yeah, right Ivan.

The world has gone mad. Yes, it is true and you are not imagining this. The world IS mad. Perhaps it has always been. Look at the charts. When Kennedy was shot dead in the streets of a populous American city, the Dow merely burped, and continued on its merry way in a bull market. They say that in a bull market, bearish news is ignored. Today may have been saying something very important about the market, loud and clear.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5513901

the varied wisdom found on, at, and in Kitco...If fellatio is inappropriate sexual relations in the Oval Office, would intercourse on the Oval Office carpet be appropriate sexual relations?

And as Commander in Chief, shouldn't Clintler bring back all those people in the military that got chastised and thrown out, for doing exactly what he has testified to, shouldn't they be re-instated

I concur! Recht an! BC IS, after all, THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF!! What's good for the gander is also good for the BIG GOOSER, nicht wahr? NAMASTE!! And a gulp of Milwaukee's finest to ya'!

who among you
would cast
the first stone

Who among us WOULDN'T, beside you?

I would be honoured to cast the first stone and I see what has been written in the sand.

I DEVOUR MY MEAT RAW.

yeah, but do you swallow?

The plain fact of the matter is BC LIED TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON NATIONWIDE TV!! And tried for six months to COVER IT ALL UP!! He's a coward and embarrassment to the people of the United States of America and to the fine men and women in uniform who put their lives on the line for freedom every single day! He has disgraced the distinguished office of the Presidency and shown himself to be untrustworthy as the highest law enforcement officer of the land!! He deserves our scorn and contempt and should resign immediately!!

they served their country and got kicked in the teeth...the Coward Erect wants forgiveness? What?!?!?!?!?! And he gets a legal defense fund...

I could do the guy in one GULP but I like to chew and savour first. Then you'd never see him again only to be transformed into a brown heap comming out the other end.

Let me get in touch with the men and women that SERVED their country when asked, whose lives were RUINED for doing what Clinter lied about over and over again, who now when forced to tell the truth wants forgiveness...and he ran away when asked to serve his country...

I may be slow, but I get there eventually. Yes, the US market is rigged via the activities of the PPT. That was made very clear on 27/10/97. The Bush administration also bought S&P500 contracts before the 1992 election using money from the Currency Stabilization Fund, and the Clinton administration did the same thing in 1996.

The Japanese are the original market riggers. The ministry of finance was intervening in the Nikkei in the late 80's. Of course we now know that it was a complete waste of money. I'm not sure if they're still interveneing or not. Anyone have any info on that?

To your question as to whether money could be made from this activity, my reply would be, yes, you should be able to make money off options on the index derivatives when the PPTs are active, because spreads ( the difference between the value of the underlying and the price of the contract, i.e. the premium ) reach ridiculous levels. I'm still trying to figure out if there is a safe way to do this. I'd appreciate hearing from any of you Kitcoites who have ideas on how to siphon money off from this latest form of gov't folly. ( ross@phm.utoronto.ca )

The Skeptical Investor has pointed out that Canada engages in a subtle sort of market rigging- forcing people to invest their retirement savings in Canadaian equities, and applying tax penalties to dividends from foreign companies.

Hope this helps,

- steve

that visual...eeeck!!!

maybe will get that $303 in one day!

Also calling for stock market melt down from Sept 6 through Nov. 1st.


HB

This is what we'll probably hear...

"My fellow Americans. I stand here tonight to tell you that I did
testify truthfully, that, in my opinion, I did not have an improper
sexual relationship with that woman, and that you should let me get
on with doing the business of the American people." BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

This is what we really should hear...

"My fellow Americans. It is with deep regret that I must inform you
tonight of my intentions to resign from the office of the presidency
of the United States of America." BLAH, BLAH BLAH.

This man is sick to the bone. Any true American would and should know this. He should have never been president. He has helped bring about
the demise of our America's future and the future of all countries. I
believe this with all my heart...

As I remember, Gold always took a nice bump upward at the first sign of trouble with BC and Wall Street analyists were quick to acknowledge the Clinton factor with a rise in Gold.
Have patience and we will be rewarded.

take a whiff of this limburger kasse...


AND SHUT THE F*** UP!!!

I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.
I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton said whatever then pulled out a gun, stuck it in his mouth and blew his brains out on television...aired on Politically Correct...last week...

Or maybe he could shoot himself in the back of the head, like some of the people who knew him did so people could understand how someone actually does that...I mean...he is supposed to set an example...right? ...right?

I am keeping my short positions through what I think will be a brief but strong rally. The chance of missing the downside is just too great. David Tice did well today on cnbc. But who exactly is Arch Crawfors? I missed his interview. I think we will be lucky to make it to Sept 6. w/o a crash. I have already bought my cigar. I plan to light up when the Dow is down over a thousand points.

BTW I read your Packers post below. Your living in a fanasty land. The Cowboys are back after a couple of years rest. Who WOULD win with Barry Switzer as their coach?

For VIX numbers go to http://www.cboe.com and click on Market Data

Now he's going to say he shot Monica with an empty gun.

I don't think that there is anything wrong with Clintler defiling the Executive branch of the gommint.
It's just fine with me that he is showing that the Executive Imperium is a power-hungry parasitic comglomeration of filth.
Down mit der Kaiser.- Down with usurpers.

The lowest XAU/Spot ratio ever recorded is .170. If you match that with a gold price of $285 you get an XAU of 48.45.

If you use an XAU of 35 and match that with .170 you get a gold price of $205.88

Cheesehead is right on in both his political and economic views, and he managed to express them without resorting to the offending language that you just filled our screens with.

I do not subscribe
to their subscription;
but, we might ask our selves...
are they..
in their failing failings...
a reflection,
of ours.

Yet,
who among you,
will show up.....soon.....

on the US Capital's steps...

naked

in the truth of your spiritual integrity of belief...
demanding..

that, as you heart insists, you insist......

that, upon those who represent you
they....must pay the price...
of your enduring, tho often obscured, yet enduring...

integrity, and...
unlimited power;

representing, are they,
only...
only....
what you, & I...... & all of us....
creatures...

creating all across this coarse, transferred, transgressed,
and still treasured & transforming ...
earth of life.....
upon this grand sea and land....

professing yet,
we would feign to represent....
or would we, embracing the courage of fear's inevitable death
in the dance
of eternal life...

our inherent divinity....: -

singing, hearing, calling...
in the mountain's top
of perfection
and the lake's yielding...
into the purifying stream of pure forgiveness....

ever, ever...... giving

and generous

Is this law of love,
and this love & life
enduring yet,
even in this collapsing place & hour,
eternally.....

Where only beauty
celebrates
or lies hidden
til
another day

PPPPSSSS

In obligating duty, of truth's duty,
of .....
chopping wood,
and carried water....

i deliver this thought, and rhyme, in this...
another, magnificent essence of endless time:


thus, and especially even yet...

upon this exquisite
eternal day:

gold money, will surface,
bubbling-up,
and resiliently refusing to be drowned

i..... this Titanic flood...

for this humble, scorned, contempted coin
of the eternal realm,
will draw us back again,
to heaven's hold
and call
in this earth's earnest creation
of materiality
and fumbling beauty

as we
stumbling
strive
ever
and
onward
upward
and downward

to know
breath
birth
and give
the glory of God,
in our often wayword
wondrous
adoring
adored
earth
of all

of human-kind.
of drowning corruption's wishful-thinking
orchestrated sea..
opf ink/s
red, red, red blood....


would we sacrifice ourselves
on the exploiting greed of one another's devotion
to devotion

what mannner or men & women
are with are paper monies endlesssly
and our corrupted, but brilliantly engineered credit instrutments...
that would send us to another moon...
that exists,
not

Tomorrow....
will
equalize
and heal us,
all.
heal

honesty, integrity, equanitimity, accountability...


who among you
will cast your lives, your fortunes, and your sacred honor...
to challenge, and usurp...
the on-slaught of such....as the...
savaging, devouring and.... hungry
of the instituitons & politicians of...
paper-money & articicial credits....

engineering....endlesssly more
human,
and
innocent,

and endless.....

misery and strife.

"So you see fellow Americans", BC says on World Wide TV,

"SHOOTING MONICA WITH AN EMPTY GUN WAS AN INAPPROPROATE SEXUAL RELATION"

"So you see fellow Americans", BC says on World Wide TV,

"SHOOTING MONICA WITH AN EMPTY GUN WAS AN INAPPROPROATE SEXUAL RELATION"

.

...I did it for all of the children that go to bed hungry, because of the heartless policies of the previous administration.

I remember Gold popping up when these ML rumours first surfaced, too.
It may have coincided with some other event like a rising dollar but
I don't think so. I can't pinpoint the date, but I'm thinking it was
in late Jan. or early Feb. We will see how this week unfolds. Then
we will see how this next month or two unfolds! There's no doubt...
We are in extraordinary times! Yep! I think so! Foxman

Hey Flash, do you carry powder with you at all times?

Well, if you do carry powder, is it DRY at least?

I give up, is it baby powder you carry?

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1z.htm

up 53

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/japan_ltcb_2.html

thing he watches closely, the COT ( Commitment of Trader's ) report.
Here's his site in case you don't have it marked...
http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

Steve Kaplan is bullish on the Yen again. He's got an unusually long comment today. Didn't even see BC mentioned.

http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

!

Between tolerant1 making noises about a President getting shot.
And Mozel, Grizz & and others talking of overthrowing the gov't.

Let's just say we are testing the security of our cyberforum here.
Anybody listening in with the intentions of snitching on us
likely will do so soon. Then we will know the jig is up.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/tokyo_stoc_1.html

The Australian and Canadian producers stop selling forward.. Makes me sick to see gold open lower every night in Australia and even more sick to think that these Countries have sold off much of their reserves. Keep this thought in mind as we watch the currencies of both countries falter.
Canada and Australia will be the next Mexican crisis. How could we be so foolish as to elect these fools who have sold us down the river.

Great minds think alike.

You have the right to remain silent... anything you say or do can be used against you in a court of law. Stay in your house for a few months so I figure out who you are. Stop stop stop! We have ways to make you comply. Welcome to the machine.

I appreciate what you're saying.
I think they sold their gold cause when they are in "TRUE" dire straits, they will place a hevay tax on gold mining companies and perhaps even to the point of confiscating the gold they mine!!!

At, least Canada and Australia have a backup plan with gold, but I can't say the same for Belgium and Holland et al. They're placing all their hopes on the Euro.

I can't wait to see this...What an act this is going to be.......

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/markets_me_1.html

I guess that's the real risk in holding gold mining stocks.

The Bre-X type risk is not as great as the risk that governments will "STEAL" gold from honest to goodness gold miners.

that killed 5 gold miners and stole 10 kilos of bullion? It was out about 2 days ago. Seems the yellow stuff may not be as worthless as some people think, no?

bother. Scary article in editorial of Saturday Toronto Star.It draws many parallels to other market crashes. We are talking credibility here. I like to suggest stuff here but I have no qualifications. These people do. Today I am frightened... really for the first time that we could loose our pension funds. GIC'S or bonds or T-bills here we come.Some of our venture funds are locked in and I don't know how they will react because the shares are not traded publicly.Anybody?

!

Between pain pills, Southern Comfort, and Clinton's speech...
I should be in fine shape to have a restful sleep.

Maybe I'll not take the next dose and instead just Grizz on through!

Bully Beef - catch us if you can - nah nah nah nah nah nah

My Dow prediction was pathetically wrong.

Forgive Me.

Live Long and Prosper.

Re BEARX, Tice also has some Heavy Duty "Blue Chips" short in his fund which IMHO will be the last to crash, and he held all those internet stocks short through their runup. Not faulting his logic, just his timing. BEARX can also be traded without transaction fee with Waterhouse, Schwab and J. White, But if you sell before 90 days, a transaction fee is charged. You should check fee structures if it matters to you.
OTOH, RYURX is the purer play as the inverse to the S&P. All the above Discount Brokers have reasonable fees for purchases/sales in large amounts. I am currently holding both ( BEARX as of today ) . Interesting charts with S&P overlays follow:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RYURX&d=1ys
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RYURX&d=3ms
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=BEARX&d=1ys
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=BEARX&d=3ms
Best Regards; Mtn Bear

!

dis-like is 99.9 based on what I believe is his dismantling of our military and his obvious dealings with China...which directly threatens me, my family, my friends and America...as in treason I believe it is called...I do not take kindly to that...

But my point since you brought the Bible and such into the conversation. I find him to be a hypocrite...at best, mind you...at best...he carries a Bible one Sunday before he supposedly tells the truth as he has carried that same Bible during all those Sunday's of the past seven months knowing full well he was lying...and he marched his wife out in front of the whole country to defend him...during those same seven months as well...

This man has used...key word...USED...the Bible and the God represented therein...to justify whatever means he deems suits his needs...nuff said...

Your 20:36 says it all. Thanx, I had not got that far yet

He got caught! On the street that makes you a loser.

Looks like the US$282 is holding for the moment at least.

Not much happening to day.

In a hurry. See you later.

In response to your's of earlier; I just looked at volatility vs SP on the dailies going back to the beginning of the year. .... In my pidgin english: same, same. ..... Though its not so purty.

Probably because the SP8U is not actively traded that far back. Hmmmmm? ...... But when an empty moment appears, I will post same, same.

I've kept my distance from most of the political discussion about Mr. Clinton and the young lady, but on the eve of his public statement, I want to say just a little something.

The position of President of the United States is currently the most powerful station a person can hold in the world. The President wields more military might, economic leverage, trade power, etc, than any office the world has every seen ( possibly a Caesar or a Pharoah, but I'm doubting it ) . A visit from the President of our country to a foreign countries leader is like a kiss from the Pope in world political circles, and when our President says that the United States will support something, it's after much consideration ( hopefully ) and it means something to everyone involved. Our President acts on behalf of the people, their will expressed. Sometimes the President does make decisions that everyone doesn't like, often in fact, but they are often because he/she? is priviledged with information that the public doesn't know, or because he/she is striving to justify an end that may cause some heart-ache in the near-term. Being the President is no doubt a tough job, I couldn't handle it, and I doubt most people could. It takes a degree of intelligence, persistence, vision, style, and resistance to stress that most couldn't or wouldn't bear. I have the utmost respect for the office and, even against my libertarian virtues, I choose to be a patriot and to answer the call of the office should it ever be sounded - more in the interest of my local community, but also for the nation as a whole. A testament to the stresses involved in being President can be had by simply looking at the men who have served as the leader of our country - they look so young and full of vitality when they start, but even after four years, they grey, and take on hard smiles, deep gazes. I'm sure it's a tough job. The country does need a leader.

So what's my point - my point is that regardless of whether Mr. Clinton is a good or bad President, regardless of the things he may or may not have done, let's please, on the forum that is Golden, show at least a little bit of respect for the office of the Presidency, especially after Mr. Clinton's address to the nation this evening. Let's set a good example and not dip down into obscenities, hateful words, and disgusting discussions like our media so often does. We on the forum that is golden don't have to speak to the lowest common denominator. I ain't preaching, I'm just reminding.

If I were to meet Mr. Clinton 10 years from now ( and he hadn't been impeached ) - I would still smile politely, nod my head in deference, and address him as Mr. President and/or sir, regardless of what happens or what he had done. Let's not sink to the level of "Hardball" on CNBC. Even if the President himself doesn't treat his position with respect, I still choose to.

No worrys about bad calls; we all guess wrong.

But now that we know Clintler lied, how will America react tomorrow?
What will the market say?

Hooray for the truth! No more investigation... Let's buy stock!
OR
Oh woe is me, Clintler lied and I've been had! Let's sell stock!
OR
Who gives a darn - I was tired of the whole thing anyway... Don't touch the portfolio!

Isn't the market supposed to be 'emotional'?

So what will tomorrow's emotion be, for investors?

MG ( Go Gold! Go Crocodile Tears! Go Clinton - NOT! )

Live Long and Prosper.

If you start to fly, grab your bag of gold, and stay with us.

Somebody told me sugar was agood investment in the depression. There was a little sunshine in every mouthful and the general population could afford it. It was a needed luxury.

Because I am a successful importer of valued merchandise
and an ardent reader of the Chinese history and literature.
Because I want to. Then yes I may shake the guy's hand.
If it is
Because it is the official language of a conquered nation
and I must speak it to get my daily rations of rice & beans
Then I will spit in his hand.
And kick him below his erection.
and quite summarily be shot for the insult to his greatness.

Clinton did not answer all questions- private and some of substance by Dan Rather!!!

.................................................................................................With respect to gold and mining stocks, the first thing you have to do, to have any chance of complying with that statement is.............. BUY LOW! .......Have we here lost our sense of perspective on what and when is high, and what and when something is low?
It never ceases to boggle my mind about the only two things that truly reflect a TOP, and a BOTTOM. FEAR and GREED! We have the rare opportunity to see both emotions at their peak in two different markets.
I guess it's true that we sometimes "can't see the forrest for the trees", when in reality, the damn things are sequoias, and there all around us!

For yes I have an ounce of Gold ( plus a few old quarter Eagles )
But I also have 150 pounds of Sugar, 50 pounds of Jam,
two cases of sweetened condensed milk and 200 pounds of Golden Honey.

And that reminds me - the local grocery is having a case lot sale.

Is it out of the question that we could make one last top, complete with the blowoff and 300 point day? Then the crash in early september.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980817/clinton_sc_10.html

And ice cream.

FEMA SWEEPS KITCO SITE AND ARRESTS TOLERANT1 & T-REX FOR SUBVERSION.

They are to be drawn and quartered tomoro on nationwide broadcast.

Guys, scream FREEDOM! before that unkindest cut. I'm with ya. GIANT GULP!

You are a danger to yourself and others. Like a man who is careless with a firearm. I want you 404'd off this forum.

If you guys have access to AOL, go take the POLL and look at the results.
Gee, I wonder if this is where the LIBERAL LEFT WING DEMOCRATIC CAN"T DO ANYTHING WRONG media gets their polling Info. from? Naaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh

Is it out of the question that we could make a final top, complete with blowoff and a 300 point day. Then the crash in early September?

I just bought back the SPU8 at 1083.50, stop 1080.00. Clinton's speech may pop it, would reverse and go short above 1100.00.

"The President's going out, and I'm going out with him."

James Carville on Larry King Live

.

Writing in current edition of "Sound Money Investor", urges Gold Bugs to "Stay the Course" and "continue to accumulate gold shares and gold with a greater emphasis on gold".

Could we make a final top in late August. Blowoff and all. Then crash in September.

Ted Slanker suggests "greater emphasis on gold SHARES".

I know you're no expert on these matters. I doubt you know whats going on.

Is going nowhere until it bottoms. Deflation is death for gold.

Your 19:57 - I just love the way you dash off those epic poems at the dropp of a Hatt.

As for forgiveness - as I remember my Bible studies ( 0;- ) , forgiveness is a corollary of Repentance. First one must repent ( admit to and give up the sinful behavior ) and then one can be forgiven. Besides, forgiveness by Man means little anyhow. We often forgive the wrong people, as well as condemn the wrong people as well. What do we know? It is up to God to forgive, and only He, She, It, knows who and where and when to forgive.

Is Clinton Human? Sure. Is he an hypocrite? Sure. So am I. So are You. So are we all. Should we be a little less harsh on one another? Yeah. Why not. What's the big deal. But if you're the President of the United freaking States of America, can't you just spend 8 years in a LITTLE dignity for the people's sake?

As an ex GI I shudder at the behavior of this "commander in chief." But this is the world.

"The more I read the papers
the less I comprehend
the world and all its capers
and how it all will end."

KITCO KWIK KWIZ: What wonderful Gershwin standard is that the introduction to? First Kitcoite to answer correctly ( or at least truthfully ) gets a gulp from me on the Island that is Long, etc, etc.

Nastame

Namiste

Nsimte

Nastime

Nas...

oh frig it.

How's about this sensitive man you helped elect?

Comments? - Hillary? ( "NO, I'm just a political DRAGONLADY" )

Chelsea? - "NONE" ( poor girl )

Patricia Ireland - National Organization for Women - "Is Monica lesbian?

WOMEN OF AMERICA - TIME TO SPEAK OUT!!!

eh mike?

James Carville is a lower life form. Unevolved, from the primeordial soup

if u meen de Rhapsodee in Blue...NO.

Obviously you're not a Gershwin aficionado.

See U in Bryant park.

Prove It test shows most PCs unlikely to pass Y2K analysis
http://www.idg.co.nz/nzweb/aa02.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Also an article in local paper.
The gist of the article states:

Computerised aviation systems, including hardware and software used for aircraft control displays, navigation, communications, engine controls, flight controls and loading of flight data, could be hit by the Year2000 bug.

"This is not a media beat-up, but the opinion of the most informed authorities in the subject."

Civil Aviation Safety Authority, said large aircraft with integrated avionics systems were most likely to be affected while many small craft may not be affected at all.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I wonder what this means????

I know it sounds crazy. I just tried to think of the craziest thing that could happen.

CNBC reports that BC's lawyers were very confrontational and refused to let BC answer some of Starr's more intrusive and undignified questions! Starr let BC know he reserves the right to subpoena him again if necessary!

Yes - even his wife calls him serpent head. A very strange couple.

Just moved the stop up to 1082.50.

I am really starting to get worried about this Y2K thing. I just found out my digital watch may give out at midnite, January 31, 1999, and turn itself back to 1900. If that's the case, and everything goes back to 1900, shouldn't we all be studying the CHARTS of stocks and bonds and gold, n' stuff? We could put in our orders the day before and when everything goes back to 1900, we Kitcoites will own the markets!

Yes?

"All failed the real-time clock test and more than half failed the realtime powered-on BIOS test. "The average age of the PCs was 1.75 years."

Real-time clocks writing back to the Bios chip.
http://www.intranet.ca/~mike.echlin/bestif/index.htm

you've insulted soooooo many people on this forum. I guess we have to put up with your 'expertise' CRAP until the crash comes. And GCH too. It kinda makes me root for an all-out-fall-out so you will say the 'I told you so's' and get the hell outta here with your expertise and go chase ANOTHER forum with your FANTASTIC market top knowledge. Your crap sucks. I realize that it is all harmless crap....but CRAP nonetheless. CRAP CRAP CRAP......

I'll take Kapex knowledge anyday.............


away.....from CRAP
EB

damn!


see you in the park...

I wish I could make you happy. That would be very nice. How's the Disney?

Bubbles or manic tops are always characterized by an almost attitude that the trend that has been in place will only continue. This attitude comes about after a long period of "Climbing a Wall of Worry" so to speak. This "Wall of Worry" is what continues to fuel the advance because of the money that is still in some peoples, Mutual funds, or instutions pockets, As more and more commit those funds the market rises. When you get to a point like last October when the Overvalued Stock market smashed, the fact that any modicummmm, ( get it Bill, oh never mind ) , fear that usually accompanies a decline of say 5 to 7%, reversed itself and the final rise to a long term top is in.

Thanks for the additionals on the bear funds. 'Preciate it.

So now we know where gold is going. It will be $20 an ounce on January 1, 2000.

And the Dow will be around 70.

Plenty of time to be bearish.

No?

this is one of those leg pulling things, yet...

Many here, including myself, like reading his takes.

The nice thing about this site is that there are different
points of view,no?

Just heard Clinton's been offered a job when he leaves the White House. Apparently, a number of soap operas are courting him to come on board. Supposedly he's leaning towards "All My Children." Isn't it terrible how rumors get started.... ) ;^ )

10--4. I said the craziest thing I could think of. Now I think that qualifies...
It would be crazy, yes. Stranger things have happened. Look at 29, 87. It doest't die that easy. This is a big, bad, BULL. This ain't no conspiracy theory, or buying gold in a deflation. That is REALLY crazy.

No. Ain't pullin' no leg here. Actual intro to a Gershwin pop tune you'd recognize in a flash. I'll give you a hint to help make it very clear...it's a song about the Rockies tumbling and Gibraltar crumbling ( or maybe the Ruble ) .

I think you know how too....

I was in charge of security ( ? ) in a gold venture on the Peninsula de Osa on Costa Rica's west coast in 1981-82.
The front office dipsticks who were trying to promote the venture couldn't help stretching things a little.
They spread the word all over San Jose ( capitol city of Costa Rica ) that we were getting three ( 3 ) kilos gold per day from the sluices.
The properties were next door to Panama, but not accessible except by air or sea.
It was something to think about, as gold was still relatively high at that time.We were even engaged in buying from the Sandinistas.
That's another story.
Any way, when local folks learned about the propaganda ( 3 kilos day ) they were scared of an all out assault by panamanians or Nicaraguans.
We tried to explain that the assault would have to be with LSTs and then a five mile march or choppers, as there only one landing strip and a man with a semi-auto rifle could keep it from being used.
We had a man fom the office in San Jose fly down each day and either he or a man who had stayed over the night before would take the stuff -closer to one kilo generally-in a grocery sack or laundry bag and the guy with the briefcase would just hang around for the next flight.
Our pilot made as many as 4 trips daily.
Made for interesting afternoons, but no real danger.
Only in the minds.
BGW. cost me a little over 104ks american.
Another semester's tuition in the school of experience, eh?

Can't blame IRS or gubmnt for that! Much as I'd like to!

Thank you. I am opinionated and bull headed. Sometimes I hold grudges and , on occasion get pissed off and mean. Occasionally I am descent and good to my fellow posters. I enjoy it very much.

as in making your descent to honor us here?

Yes. Buy Disney at a market top. Sorry, I'm in cash.

but when you mention rhododendrons, the political circle seems to
disintegrate.

Silverbaron, Wert, Chas: Have cuting edge watering methods available.
No profit motive here, as thoughts here from you all have been priceless.

Your welcome.

When you get to a point like last October when the
Overvalued Stock market smashed, the fact that any modicummmm, ( get it Bill, oh never mind ) ,of fear that usually
accompanies a decline of say 5 to 7%, Didn't materialize and the market reversed itself with the Individual investor buying the Dip because he has seen it happen again and again and again. The difference, from a contrarians observation is that he didn't buy the previous 3 times, but conversly got scared and sold some. This time he bought wiyh both hands, and an almost arrogant attitude that it was the right ( Read Greedy ) thing to do. Now thats the kind of confirmation that I, me, Myself was looking for to "Ring the Bell" so to speak. Do you see what i mean? Thats why I feel the Top is in!

;- )

ALL: Just got hooked up and am presently testing out my restored computer after retrieving it from 10 days spent in the seventh ring of cyber hell. Directory problem... What the heck is that? Sorry to have missed all the fun and can't wait to catch up. Would love to stay and chat but, first things first. Gotta go update everything and make sure that it all works. See y'all later to discuss how our fearless leader squirms outa this one....

Nice ANALysis! You give new meaning to the term 'brain atrophy'! If I were Bart I'd have you 404'd in a FLASH! Just like MURRSTEIN! Heh..heh!

You're welcome.

was trying to remember that shyster's name at the Kitco Konvocation in Huntington Saturday. Murrstein. Yeah. Thanks.

So... What's next?

The media NEEDS an issue. Something sexy, dirty, scary, and/or sinful.

Clinton's done. Stick a fork in 'im.

In 2 weeks, what's the NEW bad news going to be?

Humanitarian? Environmental? World? Political? Markets?

We'll see.

One day, though, it'll be Y2K. Don't forget that.
When it is, we may have a very good time here at Kitco.
All those boomers suddenly *need* gold.
The talking heads told 'em so.
Else the Y2K goblin will EAT 'EM UP!

A very good time indeed.

But not just yet.

MG ( Go Gold! )

Bloop on please, for the rest of us.

I would think everyone else would agree with you. That is a no brainer. You have to think out of the box. I don't get blindsided mutch. Gotta look at all the angles. The market NEVER does what you want it to do.

how true....

but this "my opinion is the only true and right one and everyone else is stooooopid" should end, NO?

I am confused. I really don't understand all the bearishness re silver. There is a physical shortage right? So why?? Please help explain this to me. Thanks in advance

I am confused. I really don't understand all the bearishness re silver. There is a physical shortage right? So why?? Please help explain this to me. Thanks in advance

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/swinga5.jpg
Confirming the bottom is in for a while???

ALso an interday chart of our OZ SPI - similiar to Globex.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/OZdown1.jpg

Note the bottoming effect.
Many global indices are at a similiar pivot points.
To fail here would be disasterous.

Go the global PPT.

Go gold.

Mike.
Y2k is far more real than most give credit.
Most cannot comprehend what is coming at all.

The time dilation effect has the potential to inflict its woes on 90% of all PC's.
And it's these PC's that run all the global small businesses plus big businesses and Gov'ts etc.
They are still retailing PC's with non-compliant RTC's.

This problem which is not well known or published,
Has the potential to trash a huge ammount of the 250+++ million PC's in existance.

Nay-sayers need to rethink their positions.
It is time to prepare.
By this time next year much will not be the same as before.

,;--".[..]

everyone in general. Because I'm here to tell you that the group that I work with thought ( thinks ) that I was nuts the last 6 months when I suggested that they take some of those profits that have been piling up!
And you know what, they still do!

I think we are in a "new era." ( Hold it gang, hold it...let me finish... )

What I mean is that even the unwashed investor has so much information at his/her fingertips that a lot of the conventional wisdom about greed, and dips, and all these things is a tad misleading. Reactions are so swift now, what with instant communications, everyone knowing about the Fed, Money supply, derivatives, short interest, heads n' shoulders, elliott waves, puts running ahead of calls, calls running ahead of puts, etc, etc, that it all sort of cancels itself out. Sure, human nature hasn't changed. I'll grant you that. I just think that the "average" investor is a leetle bit cautious these days, a leetle bit skittish, and so maybe there's room for one more run to get rid of that hesitancy. The news travels fast, and it's been bearish for weeks. The general market has already corrected quite nicely, thank you, the big cap indexes have just caught up, and open interest on calls and puts on index options are evenly balanced. And they still stink on gold and silver. I don't see a crash, because I can't believe SO MANY bears in options are all of a sudden going to be right. I think the sophisticated traders are just a leeeetle puffed up with themselves these days about how they're going to fleece the poor silly sheeple. We have already seen one crash-a-holic get tossed on the wagon for a while. But now he's back on another bender. Hmmmmm. I think I'll wait a bit longer.

And I don't know WHAT Arch Crawford is lookin' at.

lighten your loads folks. Having a beer w/out permission. Kaplan may well be correct...commodities to rise.

Gold currency too?

Tom

Geeez, kind of a surly crowd this evening. Sort of garrelous and just lookin for a fight. ..... And on the margins we have Bloop saying gold ain't gonna do nuttin until it bottoms and also pometical magnum opus from Goldfevr. ...... With Mike fillin' in around the edges.

Think I'll keep a low profile. ... At least until that clinton guy is lynched fair and square and the blood lust abates some.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1004.htm

From the August issue of the Bob Livingston Letter:

"Sure enough as suggested in our July letter, Hollywood is making a series of disaster films including "Y2K," starring Chris O'Donnell scheduled for release next year. It should be a big hit as it has already been well-merchandised. The public is ready for it."

"I expect this film to saturate the public consciousness. This means that everybody including school children will know about "Y2K." Please keep in mind our axiom that "what everybody knows is wrong." You can depend on this. If there is a disaster in the making, it is being arranged in secret. In fact, it is our belief that "Y2K" is hiding something really big."

"One of the most conventional political tricks is to put up a well-adverticed charade tocover for hidden political, military or economic machination. Anybody who has read THE PRINCE knows this like poetry."

Think we can get them to write gold into the script?

Surprisingly strong rally coming. You will be amazed with this final rally of the bull.

Chinese Flooding Provides Opportunity for Ethnic Separatist Action

The devastating floods in China have opened a window of opportunity for
Muslim Uighur separatists in China's western Xinjiang region.
Approximately one million soldiers, nearly one third of the People's
Liberation Army ( PLA ) , have been mobilized to battle the flooded Yangtze
River. More than 100,000 additional soldiers are battling the Nenjiang
River, which threatens China's northeastern Daqing oil fields. Additional
Chinese security forces have been deployed in flood-ravaged regions to
contain social unrest among the displaced populations. With much of
China's military and political attention focused on the flooding, China's
Uighur separatists have taken the opportunity to strike at government
facilities in Xinjiang.

The Hong Kong-based Information Centre of Human Rights and Democratic
Movement in China issued a press release on August 15, reporting that
Uighur separatists had attacked targets in three cities on August 10. In
one incident, the separatists reportedly killed eight members of the Public
Security Bureau and the People's Armed Police in Kashgar, a major city near
the border with Kyrgyzstan. In a second incident on the same day,
separatists reportedly sprayed a police station at Kargilik, 300 kilometers
southeast of Kashgar, with machine-gun fire. In yet a third incident,
separatists stormed an arms depot in the Guma district, 100 kilometers from
Kargilik. It is unknown whether there were any casualties from the
Kargilik and Guma attacks.

Chinese officials have denied knowledge of the reported incidents, but
Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that an official at the Public Security
Bureau headquarters in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi had confirmed that
Kashgar was under martial law. Uighur separatists were blamed for two bomb
attacks on July 8 in the city of Khotan, during a visit to Xinjiang by
Chinese President Jiang Zemin. President Jiang was in the region to urge
local authorities to step up their campaign against the separatists.
According to the South China Morning Post, there were several additional
bombings during Jiang's visit, and police and military forces in the region
were in a high state of alert. Regional heads of public security agencies
met in Urumqi on August 3 to refocus their efforts on combating the
separatists.

Xinjiang, a predominantly Muslim Uighur region, with ethnic Han Chinese
making up only 37 percent of the population, has faced a growing separatist
movement since 1996. A wave of violent demonstrations in February 1997 was
followed by a government crackdown, in which thousands or tens of thousands
of separatists ( depending on the report ) were arrested. According to
security sources in Beijing, cited by the South China Morning Post,
Xinjiang's pro-independence movement has escalated into an armed struggle
due to "an influx of firearms into the western parts of the autonomous
region." The sources claimed that clashes involving "heavy firearms" have
taken place when authorities attempted to confiscate arms caches. Beijing
has sought the assistance of Central Asian republics in stemming this arms
traffic, but the Chinese government is worried that the Uighurs could find
a new source of arms in the Taleban militia of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Already facing economic difficulties and natural disasters, Beijing is also
becoming acutely aware of the growing separatist threat in Xinjiang.
China's official Press Digest reported on August 14 that three police had
died in "ferocious clashes" in April and June of this year, and that
Chinese should "learn from and salute the three heroes." The newspaper
claimed the three "martyrs" had sacrificed their lives to defend "stability
and prosperity in the western frontier of the motherland." In an effort to
combat the threat, the Chinese Communist Party has established a new
agency, the "Bureau for Maintenance of Social Stability," which has been
tasked with collecting information on separatist movements, as well as
underground political organizations, unemployed workers and peasants, and
recently discharged soldiers. The bureau will reportedly work closely with
the Ministry of State Security, the People's Armed Police, and elements of
the Communist Party Central Committee.

President Jiang's visit to Xinjiang, which followed a visit to Central Asia
in which he discussed anti-terrorism and anti-insurgency cooperation with
the region's leaders, clearly marked what was to have been a major new
campaign against the Uighur separatists. Further evidence of this can be
seen in Beijing's decision to go ahead with a publicity campaign extolling
Chinese to learn from the example of the police martyrs. The flooding has
opened a window of opportunity to the separatists by delaying that
campaign, and the delay may last for some time to come.

China will not be able to simple refocus attention in Xinjiang when the
floods recede. If anything, China is only beginning to deal with the
effects of the floods, which have already caused $24 billion in damages at
last estimate. The social unrest stemming from dislocation, unemployment,
and hunger resulting from the floods, compounded by China's already
weakening economy, will occupy a major portion of the PLA and security
forces throughout China for months. However, as the national crisis ebbs,
or at least evolves in such a way as to allow the PLA to turn their
attention once again to China's western frontier, the crackdown on
separatists should resume with vigor. It still remains to be seen whether
the exemplary tale of China's police martyrs in Xinjiang marks the
beginning of a campaign in that region alone, or a broader campaign
covering Tibet and dissidents throughout China.

Has been quite accurate. I do agree with you that there will be a powerfull rally before September that will astound the bears.

Silverbaron: Why would James Carville say he's going out with him? Is there talk of resignation? If WJC resigns, I guess he might need a guard dog for his house.
All: Another woman has filed a lawsuit against WJC. This time it is because she wants to tell all about her affair with him.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980817/V000115-081798-idx.html
I didn't think of this, but WJC may have opened the Pandora's box on this one. What if he is inundated with women who claim they had affairs with him? Now that Monica and he have gone public, other women may dare to come forward. Even if it is just to write a book. Could be he has lost enough of his reputation that the public will start believing the bookwriters before they believe him. But -- he is such a clever politician -- he may still come through. I have learned not to underestimate WJC.
Could be the WhiteHouse is even better than Peyton Place. I can see the new soap opera -- 'The Oval office'.

Here's Clintler...

Will scare money into our market. Joe sixpac will pile in at the "bottom".

Years of earnings will be wiped out. PS. I am a right wing Christian.

All: I think we need to get a better idea what is going to happen to WJC. If he comes out smelling like a rose, we might indeed have another rally before heading south.
But -- if he gets inundated with his former lovers clamoring for attention -- this could be real bad for the markets. It is hard to know what will happen -- WJC may pull a rabbit out of a hat in the polls after all. He is one slick operator with public opinion.

Here are the charts I promised. SP8U on top and VIX on the bottom. A little scaling majik with the VIX would probably improve its purtiness some, I guess. Also note how the volatility held pretty much in the upper teens and low 20's during that dry spell this spring. ..... Figger we might see some of that again. 'Cept maybe not for so long.

I must say that he's lost some weight.

SEX is SEX.

Same, same except on 5 minute bars. Basically today's action only.

BUT IT'S ALL KEN STARR'S FAULT!! What bullscheiss!!

Nothing would surprise me at all.
I expect the unexpected.

More so, you may well be surprised.
Because you expect this to happen.

I have given up trying to call this beast.
I guess I know what will eventually unfold.

But that is all - just guesses.
Hindsight will tell.

I called a lot of turns last year and got caught out.
Now I just watch and try to make conservative calls.

Sitting and watching on the sidelines.
Not investing nor speculating.

Pssst
Want to swap for 1100 ounces of gold???
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/freshwater3.htm

Sitting in one of the best Y2k hideaways in the world.
Live a life of luxury far away from the rat race.

The man is done.
Americans who supported this man
Will have trouble backing this cynical play
He once again looked in our eyes and lied
Maybe his "family" and his "God" will forgive
But I do not forgive this
He is a disgrace

Yes

And at the begining of the presidents speech, all the market indexes were...neutral. Gold...flat SnP...flat...

Clinton is as slippery as they COME......

You are right. I based the long shot ( Tom Horn ) on the fact that the Bull is 4 years old and has been Very strong. Strongest in history. One roar would not surprise me.

.

SPINMEISTER CORP TO COUNTER ATTACH THE VAST ANTI-ARKANSAW CONSPIRACY !!

They'll have to wait for his book and pay $24.95 for the privilege so he can pay off all his lawyers!!

You think a drop? I think a powerfull rally for a few days. Investors will think the bull is back. Clinton's admission will clear up the uncertainty. I doubt the DOW gets to 9000 though.

this...our Forefathers made provisions in the papers which represent the Republic...when the people have made a poor choice...to remove the man who does not live up to his oath of office...or worse...when he threatens the Republic's existence through his actions...when those who are elected do nothing with those provisions...We the People sometimes forget our manners...and I meant what I said at the start... really...I thought your post was excellent...and I shall reread those words and read them some more... because there is much there to contemplate...yes indeed...

Better to get Al Gore in office
For the next couple years
Once Americans see what a mamby pamby
Smarmy thick-skulled superior blockhead
Mr. Gore is, the Republicans can run
Anybody they want
For anybody will be viewed
As better than Gore

Do not worry that Gore can do us harm
The Clinton Gore administration
Is tainted for all time

Anyone for a nice game of
Investigation Democratic fund raising?
The boys offer so many hooks
For all of us to hang a hat
Yet our heads will never grow cold

OK

Which god would that be?

As with OJ Simpson, football basketball and baseball stars,
hollywood celeb's.

They will always teflon somehow.

YOU, ME, anyone here would be DRAWN & QUARTERED!

ROR - a double standard? ANS: NO, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLA

Divorce proceedings, Hillary?

If you're lookin for guts, our fellow Republicans don't have any. That goes for Newt. Bunch of damn wussies.

That would be Lucifer, Carrier of the light.

Don't you think that James Carville must be an escapee from a Camer Rough Killing Fields orintology patient on thyroid inhibiting steroids !
I wish I had an apologist with the same obvious moral gravaman, sincerety & polish !
GEEZ LOUISE !

Thanks for the chart! But still urge caution and a careful re-read of Kaplan's daily commentary over the last several months in which he daily comments on the VIX and how complacent the investing public was all the way up to the top and beyond!

Or is that BURNT TOAST...........

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

Volumes are building, direction yet to be ascertained.

This is going to make or break the market?

Volatility is in the air.

Bloops
I think it's going to go ballistic but which direction???
I would guess up.
But only a guess.

This bull market has been a political one.
It still is and shall remain so till it isn't - I guess.

was over 4 HOURS of testimony! I can't believe it was a full 4 hours
of ML questioning! Alot of Ken Star's questions had to involve Dem
Fund Raising, file-gate, China-gate, etc.
Fox-Man

eh Mike?

These investors are looking for any excuse to want to believe their investments will just keep going up and up. They now think they have some clarity about the whole ordeal with Clinton, they will want to make it a non-issue for the sake of their investment. Talk at the watercooler tomorrow will be "so what, it's over and done with"

We may make a new high. Don't laugh!! Blow off and all. 300 point day. I know this sounds nuts to you, and it will take a few more days of building.I probably need an aspirin!!

Is BC a precursor to the Y2K meltdown, yielding to the one world gobmint.
Where is the anti-christ?

How will my gold mining stocks do here? Hmmmmmmmmm

Wha happened? A bad speech? Sh$t happens everyday. What's to get upset about?

Recognise that clinton is representative of all the masters. Gore, Newt, Hatch and whoever. Recognition and divorce from those bastards will ease everyone's pain. Until then, it don't mean sh$t. Forget it and let's get on with our intramural squabbles. ..... Somehow they make more sense.

The market doesn't give a rats ass about WJC. It's Rubin that they care about. Specifically, Rubin's actions in the markets........ If Rubin leaves, the good ship WJC is sunk along with the market.

Thank you, gentlemen, for your insights and calculations.

One more question: At the historic lows of xau/gold ratio, what were the gold/silver ratios? And, constrained by these low extremes, at what price might we find silver?

On balance, What prices would the high extremes of all ratios yield?

( It's something I'd enjoy figuring out myself; I just don't have the data. )

Thanks in advance!

The MIA GULPA ! THe A/D was nearly even, but the UP/Down was really pumped to support the key elements of the S & P like Merck & Microsoft !
They subscribe to the P.T Barnum phylosophy that no one evert went broke underestmating the inteligecer of the average American consumer !

Deflation is bad for gold. When the market crashes deflation will give way to inflation. As AG cranks up the presses, Gold will begin that Giant bull market. Thats the take, guess. But I think I'm right.

At the risk of repeating my post of yesterday in a follish redundancy, Clinton's speech has just confirmed that the DOW will rise this week, ending the week higher than it began. Gold will remain ASB. No stock market crash is in sight.

The people no longer care about substance. They will back "their man" with higher approval ratings, as he blames Ken Starr for his own gross misbehaviour. The office of president has been debased.

Oh yes, Russkie devaluation helps forestall uncertainty for a time.

Puetz / Cheeze.... your predictions have become "wolf" crying once again.

Al

Why not a +500 to +700 point day on the DOW? Major volatility, up and down, before the wire gets to hot and breaks.

Then, when all else fails, boring as it may be, gold will be there. Dull, unmoving ( except for going down ) , and unloved. Yes, even in Barron's, Newmont stock was mentioned as a buy ... because it's so cheap. Yes. Gold will always be there...............

investing their own money would be a buyer after this debacle ! It wasn't exactly a mark Antony funeral oration !

Amendment prohibition aganst a third term for BILLARY !

The game is still afoot! Sad and dangerous.

Tom

We hope that BC"s predicament will drive up POG, but as he has accepted credit for the good times, do we really want him to accept for the bad?

Do we really want or expect the pres.USA to be responsible for the state
of the economy?

I think not. I hope not. Not short term CRAP like this charade.

Non event? YES. The bear comes! Bill is a sideshow.

Bill clinton is among the same group, movement, mindset, as the anti-christ. I am not convinced he is not the one.

Politics and politicians S**K. Now that that is off my mind, RJ is right. There will be a Republican landslide. Oren Hatch wasn't going to let him off with attacking Ken Starr. Just hope I don't have to listen to Newt too much; he, to me exemplifies the picture of a crooked politician.
Now maybe we can get back to Gold and the markets!

ps: Blooper seems a little subdued tonight: GO BLOOP!!

Its hard to imagine how a man could have put more bull sh!t in one five minute speech. You would have thought that it was Ken Star that had sex and not the president. Unfortunately, the people of the country will swallow this pap like it was fine bubbly and relish their robust economy. My ire is up; unfortunately the price of gold is not.

WJC's statement that he did not lie based on a legal definition of sex in the Paula Jones case is not going to go over well with the fans. But it does suggest that he is quite worried if a judge or the Huuse decides that he did lie in the Paula Jones case. If it can be proven that he perjured himself in that case, he is toast, both in the court of Congress, as well as the court of public opinion. What a spectacle!

Tom

FWIW, I tried to short the Dow via DIA ( Diamond Trust Depositories ) . I left the market order open for SIX minutes. NO takers. Order cancelled. Go figure. Easy money for the bulls, gone! :- ) )

Except for Bill and Hillary.

You will give em hell when i'm quiet. You can be counted on. That's what I like about youse guys. Tell it like it is, while looking better than Howard Cosell.

An obnoxious queer. I can't tell him from his sister.

It's really sad. Here you have the president of the United States spending his day chasing secretaries around the oval office, fondling supporters, and, well, you know the rest of the story. --AG

Murr baby "how-a-bout" a class action against the executive branch and the legislative branch with specific emphasize on CNBC's butt heads and other NWO
promoters.
Yoo bekom a shoe-in fer presidint.

BUGal_A: I am inclined to agree with you, given the logic of bull markets. They were reacting to the uncertainty -- now WJC has admitted it, and the markets can head up again -- for a time.
One thing is indisputable, WJC is still popular. If Russia, China, South America are heading south, the flight to safety will be in US treasuries. And in the US markets if WJC's popularity survives this current episode.
I am uncertain that even impeachment proceeding on more serious matters like Campaigngate will go forward. The White House has a boatload of FBI files to let loose on the Republicans.

With today's activity, are we still on track for the all out meltdown this week, or will there now be beacktracking from your quarter?

Remember, October isn't far off now and I'm sure there are some Lunar cycles around there somewhere. Sheller, help us out. Any eclipses in October?

Al

Makes no difference what you or I think--the market is technically now a BEAR! Just like BC is technically now a LIAR! Somehow you're gonna' have to deal with it!

I don't know anyone that would'nt let Monica suck the chrome off his trailer hitch. She could suck a golf ball through a garden hose.

Must we hear your every opinion?

to pull Bill & Hillary's chest nuts ( READ GONADS ) out of the deep fat fryer !
He makes carville look like Hestor Pryn !

Seeing we're at the top of the market and not at the bottom,
It would not surprise me to see a huge upday on huge volume.
Sort of the inverse of what G-Cheezehead was expecting.

I sort of expect a huge upspike and then then party will all be over.
The last orgasmic rally.
It should be a good one.

But then I could well be wrong.

Globex does not look confirmatory though.
Or is it too early to tell?

What a time to straddle/strangle the beast.

That would be my choice.
To straddle both ways and catch both directions.
With the volatility that's coming,
T'would be so good.

Herr Cheesehead: Whatever happens - bear or not -- the markets will head up again for a while -- eventually. It is the nature of the beast not just to go down -- even in a bear market.

Hey! Be careful about how you speak about the fine reps from the state of Massachusetts! :- ) )

Many would disagree with that statement Cheeze. Particularly those who have heard years now, that the fundamentals are sick and that we are "technically in a Bear"...... as DOW went to 5000, 6000, 7000, 8000, 9000

I personally bought a major position in Fidelity Magellan last week, after a long hiatus from Mutuals, because the market became technically oversold. With sound TA, and the added overpowering indicator of Puetz's return to this forum with "Crash" predictions, the market is a LOCK to go higher in the short term!

Al

My presence was requested by Mtn Bear. Did the Barny Frank comment upset you. Be man enough to say something.

and think he should leave......Pronto. Change to CBS, ( Clinton Broadcasting Station ) , ABC, ( Always Broadcasting Clinton ) , and NBC, ( Nothing But Clinton ) , and it seemed like a Clinton love fest. You Gotta love our unbiased media.

That and many others, yes. You have many insights on the markets but your spend much energy insulting both posters here and just about everyone else.

Your 22:40 makes perfect sense. We are in agreement. There will be a report to Congree from Starr, COngress will issue a mild handslap type censure statement. There will be no impeachment. The market will be higher by year end.

P.S., POG, Silver, and the Yen will also be higher by year end.

Al

We watch this ne...never mind.

Tom

Nothing you can say will alter the fact that we are now in a DOW THEORY BEAR MARKET!! To change it you and your ilk will have to EBuy the DOW back over 9350! That's 800 or so points higher from here! GOOD LUCK!! You're gonna' need it! Heh..heh!

That's right..Big spike up. But not yet. A little technical work would have to be done. Than, as you say, in September. There will be a panic over 2 or 3 days when the pros leave.. Computer driven free falls. Years of profits will be lost. Maby October. When China devalues. Bad profit warnings. One of the big blue chips or 2 or 3. Nice to be in cash.

you provide, wit, humor, and good logic to your posts. Keep up the
good work!

He will now be seen by the smart money around the globe as damaged goods.
They did their obvious schtick today, instead of letting the market move down. One day of wavering uncertainty at the far out most. I think the Bear comes out mauling before the general public gets to the water
cooler !

As an avowed follower of the Christian faith, you certainly have novel ways of witnessing your faith. Since I am not of the same accord, I am not offended but others may be.

In the meantime your words would only serve to reinforce an opinion some of us have held for most of a lifetime. That is that Christians like yourself are the norm not the exception. ........ Hypocrisy: The price vice pays to virtue.

You know the drill: "Opinions are like ----" Well we all have 'em, so lets be tolerant. Thats what makes markets. We ARE technically in a bear market. ( That's mine, along with a slew of others, including some very talented analysts ) . Jerry Favors made the point that there is ALWAYS a rally to sell into before the BIG down wave. This may be forthcoming now. So even if you are the raging bull, be a little cautious, please. Take a little off the DOW table, so you can get some more of these beaten up GOLDIES. Now thats my opinion! Mtn Bear signin off and headed to the den.

BC or ALgore? As if Algore could save BC's ass all the way from Hawaii!! What a sad excuse for a gobmit!!

After the White House, Bill Clinton will go to Hollywood ( endless possibilities on Sunset Blvd. ) and host a talk show ( will give J. Springer a run for his money ) . Hilliary will go to NY and be the next Gloria Steinem...no, no, Betty Freidan. House Judiciary won't see Starr's report until September and...Wall Street will drop for the rest of the week. No, Golden Cheesehead, THE SKY IS NOT FALLING, but there is a noticeably worse list to the ship of state....

I know that Kicoites reside in all corners of the world and I sincerely hope that no one takes the example of our leader as being in any way representative of the true American spirit.

You know the drill: "Opinions are like ----" Well we all have 'em, so lets be tolerant. Thats what makes markets. We ARE technically in a bear market. ( That's mine, along with a slew of others, including some very talented analysts ) . Jerry Favors made the point that there is ALWAYS a rally to sell into before the BIG down wave. This may be forthcoming now. So even if you are the raging bull, be a little cautious, please. Take a little off the DOW table, so you can get some more of these beaten up GOLDIES. Now thats my opinion! Mtn Bear signin off and headed to the den.

retracement of the total point decline of wave 1. A .382 is at 8716 and a .618 is at 8960. I doubt it will reach that far. But when it gets to a .382 and most think it has more to go, that will tell me the correction is over.

While Wall Street wonders whether these past few weeks signal the end of the stock market bubble, a more important question for Main Street is, "Is the economic bubble ready to burst, as well?" This bubble is the result of America's new found limitless ability to create credit, which in turn has induced businesses to expand too far and for consumers to spend far beyond their means.This credit-induced bubble will burst, sooner rather than later. We've seen credit bubbles popping elsewhere, in Japan nine years ago and in Southeast Asia recently. These economies imploded because expanding credit turned quickly into contractions. It could happen here, leading to a self-feeding economic and financial collapse.This, of course, sounds crazy to anyone looking only at low inflation, moderate interest rates and a Fed chairman who seems to have the economy totally under his control. But there is more to economic health than stable prices. Just because most recessions start with a rise in interest rates, it doesn't mean they always do. A tug-of-war between supply-driven deflation and credit-driven inflation has yielded the stable price level so prized today by the Fed and most investment strategists. By separating these countervailing forces, we can see the end of the credit bubble.Let's take deflation first. Effective use of technology, corporate layoffs and manufacturing outsourcing have generally raised productivity and reduced costs. Meanwhile, a worldwide capital-spending boom has brought down the marginal cost of production. As a share of gross domestic product, American capital investment has risen to 17% in 1997 from 13% in 1990, representing a 30% increase. Specifically, half the real annual increase in investment has been in the high-tech sector.One would expect all of this new capacity and efficiency to result in lower prices overall. In fact, we should be asking ourselves how consumer prices can be increasing at all. Yet consumer prices are creeping higher at a rate of 1%-2% year. This rise in the general price level wouldn't have been possible without substantial monetary stimulus in the form of rampant credit and the issuance of new equity. This liquidity boom has been the force tugging frantically against deflation, creating a dangerous asset inflation in stocks, real estate and luxury goods.Our environment of easy, breezy credit can be demonstrated both anecdotally and with hard numbers. The U.S. money supply as measured by M3 has been growing at an annual rate of more than 10% for the past year. The balance sheet of Japan's central bank has recently grown at a 50% annual rate, providing a massive injection for bond and equity markets around the world. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have expanded their assets at compound rates of 17% and 31% over the last five years. U.S. bank loans for securities purchases have increased at a 50% rate over the past year.Meanwhile, total household debt is at a record percentage of GDP, and has grown as a percentage of income to 95% from 68% over the past 10 years. For that we can thank the home-equity loan, the six-year car loan and junk mail with credit cards attached.The boom in home-equity loans is especially worrisome. When individuals who were arguably overleveraged before are given the ability to borrow 125% of their home value, families can easily live beyond their means. Additionally, a tremendous amount of money has been borrowed by consumers in anticipation of stock-market gains, much of it in home-equity loans or loans against 401 ( k ) accounts. This is in addition to margin debt, which has recently swelled at a 50% annual rate. Economic bulls argue that credit expansion as measured by the government has been modest, but bank credit is only one ball in the credit lottery. Just as our changing economy made the focus on M1 obsolete, how we judge the growth in leverage in the economy is due for an update as well. The formal banking system is responsible for a much lower percentage of total lending, thanks to a proliferation of new types of financial institutions. Now there are also derivatives and outperformance contracts, esoteric swap agreements and overseas borrowing. There are loans made by non-banks that are securitized and sold to institutions to the tune of billions of dollars. We can't forget auto leasing, an arrangement responsible for 30% of new car financings but a figure still not included in the Federal Reserve's accounting for consumer debt.Loan quality and pricing are also important variables, and it is disturbing that credit spreads are at record low levels. The respected former chairman of Wachovia Bank said recently that credit standards were more lax than at any time in his 40-year career.There is a precedent for this kind of behavior; we simply haven't witnessed it in a while. In the 1920s, the Fed was also fixated on the general price level while speculative and credit excesses fueled the economy and asset inflation. In America's Great Depression, Murray Rothbard argued logically that inflation from credit expansion obscured the deflationary forces in the economy that resulted from an increased supply of goods. The resulting low inflation of the 1920s persuaded the Fed to maintain an expansionary policy. This fueled the boom further and set the stage for the Depression.Today's bubble will burst as did the bubble of the 1920s and we will face the potential for dangerous deflation accompanying a very painful recession. The trigger will undoubtedly be a broad and deep stock-market decline set off by any number of factors, most likely a sharp decline in corporate profits or a significant problem in a foreign economy ( but probably not higher interest rates ) .After the credit-induced stimulus side of the equation is wiped out by a stock-market plunge, the economy will be left with the deflationary side growing stronger as demand falls dramatically in the recession. Once deflation starts, no matter how hard the Fed tries, there could still be a contraction in the money supply just as there was in the 1930s in the U.S. and currently in Japan.The prevailing view today is that the 1930s Fed made a huge mistake by being restrictive and, having learned its lesson, will be extremely accommodative to avoid any future deflationary bout. Rothbard found that the Fed tried mightily to inject reserves, yet still there was a contraction in the money supply.Again this time, bankers will realize that they can't continue to aggressively extend credit once delinquencies start going through the roof. Therefore, again it may be impossible to expand the money supply and prevent deflation.Let's hope we can avoid mistakes in trade, tax and monetary policy in the recession's aftermath that could make a terrible recession even worse. The problem is that it will be easy to make mistakes in an effort for a "quick fix" to solve millions of citizens' significant pain. It's just a shame that our policy-makers let the party go on this long.DAVID W. TICE manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund. His Dallas-based research firm advises more than 150 institutional investors.

I wish Clinton was done but until the Bear really shows itself I don't think so.

Now you know who to avoid, and I you. I'm not offended. You just don't bother reading my posts. If I am offended, then I know who my friends are. I don't post to make you happy. I wish you were happy.

: ) Tom

...lends new meaning to the phrase "people vote their pocketbooks." Makes you wonder what Clinton is doing with his hand in our pockets. Doesn't do anything for me...does it do anything for anyone else here?

There is nothing more I need or want to say to you either. Peoples posts speak for themselves.

a rally in wave C of intermediate wave two. He thinks this push higher
will last most of this week with Aug 24th as a potential turn date.

I like to use Elliott Wave theory as a guide, but I'm really a fundamentally based trader. Of course, using fundamentals hasn't helped
much the last couple of years when it comes to Gold....Silver...The Stock
Market....I still think Fundamentals will win out eventually, especially
for the PM's!!! Foxman

That was a good read ( but difficult when run together without paragraphs ) . M. Rothbard was ahead of his time. eg, credit expansion masks deflation. Eggzactly what has and continues to occur. ..... A lot of caveats in one piece.

All: I think it is too early to say that the markets cannot retrace to their previous highs. WJC is still popular. I think we underestimate the effect of his popularity.

Another way of looking at this is the way the Oldman said one day -- the markets' and WJC's fortunes are tied together. A good indicator for both is WJC's popularity in the polls. And -- when the bull goes to bear it will not be pretty -- meaning that there will be big upswings and downswings in the markets, even if we really are in a long term bear.
Either way you look at it -- the US markets are going up for a time. Just think of the American flight to safety effect if Europe weakens! Russia, South America, China. Only a worldwide financial crisis will bring down the US markets in the short term -- unlikely for a month or possibly more -- I would guess. But even then, I would keep most of my powder dry.

Tis a dangerous time in the minds of the American public.

Tom

Can kiss Barney Franks ass. To the rest of you, you are glorious, independent Kitcoites, worthy of solid Gold. I am proud to be associated with you. Goodnight,,, God Bless.

I do not have much to say about this fund except I bought it 2 years agao and have lost about 30%..When stocks go up, this fund gets hammered ..then the last 2 weeks with stocks dropping, it makes a fractional gain...it is nearly as bad an investment as gold has been..what a joke...

Klinton is toast. His supporters will never dissert him. Just ask yourself this question, "If I had done what WJC has ADMITTED to doing, would I still have my job/wife/family?" The dam has a fatal leak in it. There is scant time left before it fails. You can either try to shore it up ( hopeless ) or run to higher ground in order to save your life. Tough choice.............good night all.......

i5,091. I think this will be the start of a good ralleyin
the Yen.

Thanks GD

Thanks. I'm figuring on resistance at 1100. If we close above that level, we may be looking at the relief rally that everyone is waiting for. I don't see it just yet though.

I want to take advantage of your many tidbits of wisdom, but I have trouble following your posts.

Would you please give a clear concise opinion on the dow, where it is going, how long it will take to get there, and how you plan to invest to
to reap the profits you are sure to make. If gold fits into your investments at all explain how please. Thanks for your help!

OK....

Will you resign?

Huh, wouldya'?
But.. But.. But.. But.. But
You said...............

In recognition of this evenings performance; don't let the door hit ya in the ass on the way out.

The whole Mass. delegation s*#*s, I know, I live here.

Really gone *poof*

bye

Partial eclipse of the moon on the 6th Sept.
Just after the full moon.

for the perceived US weakness at home and abroad which brought about the bombing of two American embassies and the destruction of innocent civilian's lives on foreign soil? Who else will now try to take advantage of what is no longer a perceived weakness, but a REAL ONE?

All Clinton needs to worry about is the public opinion.
In order to be impeached, 13 Dems ( in addition to all Reps ) would have to vote to impeach him.
They will not, as long as most of morons....I mean Americans think that Clinton is doing a good job and all his crimes are his personal business.
Now we wil see an enormous political and media pressure on Congress to stop this partisan investigation.
The Republicans will backdown, for they have no cajunes.
Clinton will be praised for being a strong and a sensitive man and for coming out and facing the music.
He is too shrewed for Republicans. He will do everything he can to defend his "position and principals", but the Reps will not.

What is the Republican Party's platform? They do have a majority, don't they?

They're interviewing people locally who say they would vote for him again. I guess as long as it's not their daughter, or he didn't actually lie right to their face it's ok. I hate to admit it, but I never realize the moral decay and IQ in this country had sunk so low.

I guess to qualify for President in the next election one can't be convicted of more than two felonies! Accused, yes. Convicted no. I truly fear for the future of my grandchildren. There isn't one. How sad.

If there's one major system that's going to be Y2K OK I'd say it would be the avionics on airliners. In this case despite the complexity you have a lot of things going for you. First of all, extensive documentation. The airframe manufacturers typically issue spec dwgs to vendors who build the boxes, then the avionics guys play the game of "Where do I put the freakin' box? There's no room left in this bay!" Nonetheless, *very* good up to date records are kept as to which individual aircraft has what avionics configuration. This does not insure
that the unit in question is compliant but it puts you months or years ahead of other industries who can't figure out what they shipped out the door 15 years ago. Boeing has already begun to name certain aircraft that have Y2K compliance issues. They've also said they will issue kits to repair aircraft in the field as the vendors come up with fixes. Also, all field modifications and upgrades by the airline would be coordinated with Boeing, the vendor, and the FAA. Small aircraft on the other hand probably would see a great deal of end user modification and these records *should* be kept up to date but... I dunno. Most private aircraft probably have very meticulous records but ALL of them? The FAA, the airports themselves, the airline's ticketing systems are a whole different story. The GAO has caught the FAA redhanded in falsifying progress reports. In short, airliners OK ( or grounded by the manufacturer ) , the rest of the airline industry NO WAY. One thing that could be a disaster with the avionics though is if the vendor tests a representative unit and says the rest are good if that particular one passes. Identical end units can have subtly different chips in them with unpredictable results as the medical field has discovered in their testing. To be truly compliant each 'fixed' aircraft should undergo a rollover test, on the ground of course. ;- )

The essense of leadership is leading - to take people somewhere they didn't know they could go, that's what the game is all about. Helping people to see more within themselves, to believe more of themselves, through vision, to chase a dream, to go somewhere. A leader is supposed to have an idea of where the organization is heading, and to do everything he/she can to help the group get there. They are supposed to paint a picture for people, make a dream tangible, and then work with others to achieve it. That's what a leader's job is. Kennedy painted a picture of the moon. Gates paints a picture of Microsoft's future. The mayor of my town paints a picture of economic prosperity. Some leaders go so far as to create elaborate paintings or models that display their vision of the future, anything to get people on board.

The skills and talents a leader must possess to get people to follow are many - and most important amoung them is integrity. Integrity is a quality that lets people count on you, it says "I do what I say I'm going to do" to others, and they put their faith in you. The quality of integrity is about the most important quality a good leader can have, and they must always defend it. That's why your father told you that keeping your word was so important, because it is that one quality, integrity, that let's people know you are for real, that they can invest in a relationship with you, that you can be trusted.

Our current President obviously does not possess this quality in abundance, and I, for one, think he should be impeached. I thought his public confession was embarassing and set a bad example. Just my 0.02$US, and I won't bring it up again.

Save your breath and your sanity. Following Bloop's thoughts is an exercise in futility. When not mired in reduncancy, they are sure to undergo 6 or 7 reversals in the space of a half hour. In short they lend new meaning to the word vacuuous.

in US stock market history of the first leg of a major BEAR leg ! My goodness man, you are making noises like a fat pregnant upstream salmon listening to heavy foot steps ! Many of us won't come out of denial in this world !

Blooper, the next top will be in in about 20 years !