Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:00 - ID#412286)
Hilliary did not know
implied tonight. Another lie and nobody can believe this, it is absolutely incredulous. One thing I like is the flash back they do to the Jan denial speech and then fast forward. Lets hope for resignation, the sooner he is gone and or utterly discredited the better for the working people.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:01 - ID#234218)
It was real public at some of the local establishments. However, the one saving grace was that some of them didn't act like they would ever actually vote. All in all, Clinton has demeaned and mocked the integrity and pride of an entire nation. In so doing has lowered the standards of her allies to some degree. It is indeed a time of shame for this once great country.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:02 - ID#287367)

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:03 - ID#373284)
There is no question in my mind...
Orin Hatch had on a kickin out fit UH...HUH...a gulp to that tie!!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:03 - ID#190411)
Prudent Bear(Earl, and missinglink)
Is mainly short NASDAQ biggies. Short during the internet runup.
They also are long goldstocks- what pctg. I don't recall.
You might not want to be to be to be too redundant in goldshares.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:03 - ID#287312)
Klinton does a rope-a-dope speach !
It would appear that Paula Jones gained considerable credability today.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:05 - ID#287312)
" As the Stomach Turns "
We found the Arkansas trailor trash, their living in the White House.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:06 - ID#218248)
Do they have something on orin or what?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:07 - ID#373403)
You are right about gold share redundancy. I want to add to my 95% gold position with a pure dow bear fund. Is there such a fund?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:07 - ID#227238)
I didn't know about the gold stocks. Don't need anymore of those for the moment. .... Thanks for the input.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:08 - ID#218248)
Did anyone check out the AOL Poll results before the whine, I mean the

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:09 - ID#433172)
Whats true anyway, and who decieds it? We don't even share a consentual view of reality. Take goldbugs for example. We gots religion, right and left, area codes, extreme views.

So I take truth to be---don't fool yourself--to hell with the other guy,if he needs to let him figure by some code, you owe them nothing. I've told my children " never admit anything, under any circumstances" and "be deceptive" be good at it.....Thats what I learned in this world.

I have a lot of distaste for Clinton over his weak policies, Tibet, Taiwan, Isreal, just about everywhere except what he does privatly. none of my business. This whole thing is reminisent of Oliver Cromwell..does Starr want to be president? Pure people are coming out of the woodwork everywhere.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:11 - ID#287312)
Kapex / 900 FBI files,
surely the got Orin's

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:11 - ID#218248)
Thats SPEECH. Anyway, it was unanimously aganist Clinton.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:13 - ID#153102)
A whore will say she is active in the entertainment profession. Her livelihood is renting out her body and acting a part.
When illness strikes, I want a healer not someone active in the medical profession.
Clinton and Starr are cast from the same mold.
If the speakers in your Courts of Justice are in masquerade, is it not a play you witness ?
If the speakers in your Courts of Justice are for hire, what is it that has been rented and what is it that has been sold ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:14 - ID#190411)
Orrin's tie should be tightened about 5 inches ( 127 MM ) , and put on backwards.--over a tree. He can forgive Il Duce, but I don't.
Last week I talked with someone at Euro-Nevada. He was rather non-commital, and hardly talked up his company. -Nothing wrong you understand, just the doldrums. I didn't buy more, but it's up 19.2% since last Wednesday when he returned my call.
Someone's buying. Check a five day chart on EN.TO .

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:14 - ID#373284)
Clintler gets paid to rent the White House...OUR House...fellatio in the Ovum
Office is not a perk...nope...nah uh...and his BS about private lives being nobodys business...tell that to the folks in the Military that got sh_t-canned...Mr. Commander in Chief...phooey...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:14 - ID#218248)
George:....He perjured himself under OATH! I don't know about you but for most of us, we would
pay a Dear price for that. Should he be any different?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:14 - ID#242303)
@ Themissinglink
Check out this web site for a fund that might fit your bill.

Good commentary too.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:17 - ID#227238)
Integrity. ........ Such an archaic term. Not much in use anymore.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:18 - ID#373284)
ERLE, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Kickin tie...uh huhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...
EN.TO or FN.TO, can't go wrong with either...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:18 - ID#218248)
Suspicious:...Is that all they have? I figured they would be up to 2
or 3 thousand by now. It doesn't matter, they care more than Republicans and its OK for them to break the law.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:20 - ID#218248)
Are Newmont and Hecla a Screaming buy at these levels or WHAT?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:20 - ID#190411)
Vote for me. I never lie and I'm always right.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:20 - ID#373284)
Mozel, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Pee Wee ain't stopped dancin Herman...
Leave it to you to hit the culpable right on their heads!!! Brabo!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:22 - ID#373284)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and true to form oh quiet one...
If you don't calm down you are going to have to leave...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:24 - ID#190411)
Mr. Noncommital at EN/FN said he liked EN more because of the greater foreign exposure.
Has anyone got any poop on the TVX suit? That waif will have a big runup when POG moves over 300.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:25 - ID#153102)
The highest priced of those active in one of the thespian professions will give the best performance imitating integrity. Or passion, as the case may be.

When all the speakers in the Courts of Justice are for hire, it is justice that has been sold.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:26 - ID#218248)
Suspicious: Isn't it nice and neat how the media has been saying Sex
Sex, Sex to us ,ignoring the FBI files, Chineese contributions, selling the Lincoln Bedroom and Travelgate? Does anyone hear about Obstruction of Justice, or Abuse of Power?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:30 - ID#190411)
I propose a toast to Linda Tripp.
Raise your glasses for a woman of integrity.
mozel, she wasn't for hire.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:33 - ID#218248)
ERLE: Here Here

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:35 - ID#373284)
Ya know, I was just thinking...Clintler has made the Ovum Office the only office of a
world leader where you have to wipe your shoes of when you leave...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:39 - ID#153102)
@ERLE A toast to Tripp.
Somebody should tell her not to travel by air for the indefinite future.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:39 - ID#218248)
Good Night,

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:40 - ID#255151)

Your first spelling, "speach", was the correct one, according to aurator's Kitco dictionary.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:40 - ID#190411)
mozel, and all
I am not sure whether you can access this, I subscribe.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:43 - ID#394240)
I gotta' agree! Sex ain't the issue here! Integrity, character, duplicity and abuse of power is the issue here!! His bold-faced lies to Jim Lehrer and to 60 minutes and to the American people as he wagged his finger in our collective face and lectured us to "LISTEN TO ME! I DID NOT HAVE SEXUAL RELATIONS WITH THAT WOMAN, MS. LEWINSKY!" when he knew full well that he did!! This duplicitous hypocrisy CANNOT BE TOLERATED IN A MAN WHO CONTROLS THE FATE OF THE ENTIRE PLANET IN HIS HANDS!!! HE MUST BE IMPEACHED OR RSIGN ASAP!!! HIS CONTINUED PRESENCE IN THE WHITE HOUSE IS A SCANDAL, AN OUTRAGE, AND A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT TO THE CITIZENRY AND ARMED FORCES OF THE US, THE FREE WORLD AND THE ENTIRE PLANET!! I hate to admit this, but NELSON MANDELA has more integrity than BC does!! What a disgrace!!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:45 - ID#190411)
I recommend this publication for the legitimate news that you will never get from the usual suspects.
Good night from the warm Midwest.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:46 - ID#342376)
@ ERLE & 404
I'm still laughing......

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:48 - ID#190411)
Try this for your last post.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 00:52 - ID#394240)
Think I'll e-mail this site to my congressmen! Heh..heh! What's his name? Feingold? What a misnomer that is! Heh..heh!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:01 - ID#284255)
I'm not really sure on this one.

That post came from the Australian CASA.
They seem to think, that they do know what's going on.

EJ a while back mentioned some engineers he personally knew,
Who worked for GE.
Who would not be flying in April 99.
Because of chips within the engines.
I think he mentioned 3 dates that came up in April.

I would assume that many CO's are in denial on this subject.
They don't want to know.
They don't want to insure.

I don't know the facts here.
Just making comments.
There are approx 100,000 chips in a 747.
Average airliners have around 60,000 chips.

As more and more time goes by
More and more people who are testing
Are finding out that this Y2k problem
Is more than meets the eye.

To me, it's sort of like the BC debacle.
Lots of hidden lies, and little truth.

Guess we just have to wait and see.
But I am averse to believing the spielmasters.

It's hard to believe,
But how many PC's have compliant real time clocks?
Co's producing them still have not got them compliant.
This speaks volumes.

Does your PC have a compliant RTC???
Who do you believe when it comes to the salesman's spiel???

Profits these days revolve around,
Who can tell the biggest lies and get away with it.

I am not so confident.
And becoming less so with all the information being released.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:02 - ID#290306)
I buy gold at $35/oz
But I pay an exorbitant shipping fee of $260/oz, sheesh. ; )

Almost news....
Enclave declares southern Russian region 'Islamic territory'

And Jamaica says it will resolve Y2K issues in 2004 ( can't find the URL )
A BIG puff there.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:05 - ID#284255)
There is someone on Kitco who loves BC???

Or do all Kitcoites belong in that other 7%.

Doomsdayers, radicals, and non-believers.

Gee, I wish BC would pop into Kitco to get his popularity ratings. ( :- ) ) ) )

Talk about entertaining.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:06 - ID#433143)
Senate Judiciary Chairman Orrin Hatch expresed anger at the president's attacks on Starr. ``Wasn't that pathetic. I tell you, what a jerk,'' Hatch said. ``That's the biggest mistake he's ever made.''

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:07 - ID#394240)
The only thing BC is sorry about--
is that he got caught with his pants down! He was not sorry or penitent, he was downright PROUD AND DEFIANT!! IMPEACH THE LYING BASTARD!! He has no moral sensibilities except that which is politically expedient and helpful to his case! He gives new meaning to the term 'situation ethics'!
BC is an immoral political scumbag of the highest order!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:12 - ID#384350)
Poor, poor Hillary
Like she didn't have a clue. A friend tells me of the story of how when the Klintons were in the Govner's mansion in Arkansas they were having a terrible fight. Hillary was throwing things at BJK. A Black servant woman yelled at BJK in defense of Hillary saying, "A woman needs to get f**ked more than once a year."

Rumours also abound that BJK has an illegitimate son from an "improper relationship" with one of his black servants during his time in Arkansas. The mother and son, who supposedly has many of BJK's features, are to be living in the RSA.

BJK's second name isn't Jefferson because his grandfather was a former slave. No, Clinton's grandfather is a Rockefeller.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:12 - ID#373284)
the polls are manufactured...
plain and simple...Clintler was also elected by the smallest voter turn out as per the voter registration people in a document and web site I posted earlier today...which was attributed completely to voter apathy...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:20 - ID#219363)
Still Bearish
I'm still firm - guessing we'll see a rally soon. Asia looking good, no bad news on the horizon to do damage ( unless China or Hong Kong gets crazy, or something random ) , etc. I'm still not convinced today was it though, very little volume, buyers still don't feel confident. When the rally comes, and my bear charts start dropping, when everyone says "The bull isn't dead you bunch of doom-sayers" and "Wow, that was scary there for a few weeks" and "Yippidy skippidy, we're off to 10K", that's when I'll be buying the bear dip, the dip in the big decline.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:28 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John, I got special request for
you and Ben - could you please install
the picture of Mr. B.Clinton in front of
Ben and ask Ben to bark at this picture...
If Ben wants to do on the picture, it
would be nice...After watching Mr.Clinton's
address I feel some action is needed...
I already drunk 1/2 of B&W Smirnoff to
deal with his speech...Still hurts...

Hope Ben can help. Will send Ben deer sausage
with ocasion as a token of my appreciation.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:37 - ID#238422)
Blooper got a lot of cash and Mr. Clinton
is innocent like a baby...I feel violated.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:47 - ID#240142)
To all: i heard a rumor ( yes, a rumor ) that buffet might be making a move on Newmont. has anyone heard this? thanks.

( Makes no difference to me since i am already long NEM but i thought i'd ask around anyway. )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 01:58 - ID#229207)
Jack Kemp tells AG, "use your influence to initiate steps to move the world back toward
a stable monetary regime anchored to the price of gold."

We Need Liquidity, Mr. Greenspan

To: The Hon. Alan Greenspan

Dear Mr. Chairman:

I have just returned from Empower America's annual retreat at which the
economy was the major topic of discussion. Everyone agreed that you
deserve high praise for bringing us price stability, which in conjunction with
the Reagan-era tax and regulatory reforms has provided the fertile
environment for this extraordinary 15 years of noninflationary economic
expansion. But there was growing anxiety that the Fed, having led the nation
out of inflation, may be slow in recognizing emerging signs of global deflation.

It is clear that the Fed's tight-money policy is causing some serious financial
problems in the domestic and world economy by fighting nonexistent inflation
to the point of causing a liquidity shortage. The Fed seems unmindful of the
steep decline in commodity prices that is the direct result of the world
economy demanding more dollar liquidity than the Fed is willing to supply.

The signs of a liquidity shortage are widespread.
What's disturbing is that for every clear signal among
financial indicators that the economy is being starved
of liquidity, members of the Federal Open Market
Committee--which meets again tomorrow--appear to
concoct offsetting theories as to why the signals are

In preparation for our retreat, I read your most
recent Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. I was deeply
disappointed by your description of the sentiment
among FOMC members that "the potential for
accelerating inflation is probably greater than the risk
of protracted, excessive weakness in the economy."
You, of course, have a trustee's responsibility as
chairman of the Fed to represent the views of committee members when
appearing before Congress. I respectfully suggest, however, that your
overriding responsibility is to lead the FOMC.

In your testimony, again presumably reflecting the views of some members of
the FOMC, you state that "it is the balance of supply and demand in labor and
product markets in the United States that will have the greatest effect on
inflation rates here." I don't believe that--do you? Labor and product markets
do not need the central bank to keep supply and demand in balance. They
need the Fed to keep the value of the dollar stable and ultimately, in the words
of President Kennedy, "as good as gold."

It pains me to hear you put your own judgment above the price signals of
markets, and that is just what you do by implying that you know the stock
market has "soared" to unwarranted and unsustainable levels and that
continuation of last year's stellar economic performance would be
"threatening [to] the balance and longevity of the expansion."

As recently as 18 months ago, you stated publicly that the price of gold was
the indicator in which you had most confidence as a signal of incipient
inflation. The price of gold then was $385. Today it is below $285. Some
argue that the people of the world never went off the gold standard even
though their governments did. From this perspective, one is led to interpret the
dramatic drop in the price of gold among all the major currencies, and
especially the fall in the dollar-price of gold, as a direct measure of a serious
world-wide deflation. Based upon this view, the Fed should buy bonds through
open-market operations until the price of gold rises back toward $325.

Other members of the gold-price rule fraternity are not persuaded that gold
sends such precise signals when governments do not use it explicitly in
maintaining the value of their currencies. Those in this camp would perceive
most of the recent collapse in the price of gold not as indicative of a serious
world-wide deflation but rather as a signal of markets' sudden and final
acceptance that we have indeed achieved price stability. In this view, the gold
price has fallen, and may yet continue to fall, to a level that markets consider
the "correct" price at price stability. However, with all other financial
indicators now uniformly signaling tight money, even this view suggests that
the Fed should ease.

I am inclined more toward the former view than the latter. But let me put the
question to you from the latter perspective, which I take it is more in line with
your own view today. How can it possibly be that a 25% depreciation in the
price of gold signals inflation just ahead?

In other words, Mr. Chairman, unless you repudiate your past views about
gold, it is totally inconsistent to believe inflation poses a threat or that the
economy is growing too fast or that the stock market is too high and must be
brought to ground by a central bank that can prick the bubble and let the air
out slowly.

These are not just esoteric arguments. Getting the answer right has a huge
impact on the entire world. For example, writing in The Wall Street Journal in
June, David Malpass of Bear Stearns concurred with Mark Mobius's
suggestion of a gold standard for Southeast Asia, which Mr. Malpass argued
"would have immediately stabilized the situation if proposed by the U.S. or
IMF." Instead, the International Monetary Fund continues to prescribe fiscal
austerity, tax increases and managed economic growth, which only drives
countries toward eventual devaluation and increases the demand for dollars.

I know it may seem easy for me to say this, not having to deal as you do with
the cross pressures of the myriad factions within the FOMC. But the very
fact that monetary policy must emerge as a political compromise among
competing theoretical factions within a bureaucratic committee inside an
unelected, unaccountable central bank illustrates the dangerous and untenable
situation in which we find ourselves.

You find yourself presiding over a central committee of appointed
bureaucrats who are expected to direct an $8 trillion economy--an impossible
task. It never worked when the central committees of socialist systems
attempted to set prices and production schedules, and it won't work when a
committee of the central bank attempts to fine-tune the flow of liquidity to
maintain economic expansion within a range it determines sustainable.

The ultimate sign of this sorry state of affairs is the article in last week's New
Yorker magazine in which Milton Friedman is quoted as saying that there is
"more of a bubble in today's [stock] market than there was in 1929." Money
has become the loose joint in the world economy, detached from any
automatic directing mechanism, and as a result has enticed our best economic
minds into the ill-fated occupation of second-guessing markets. This is what
happens when the world's monetary system remains disconnected from its
moorings for so long.

In the near term, I believe the Fed immediately should employ the only
mechanism at its disposal to inject needed liquidity into the economy: Lower
the 5.5% federal-funds rate at least to a point consistent with declining
long-term interest rates, which are set by the market. If such a rate cut were
justified specifically within the context of falling gold and other commodity
prices, you also would establish the ground rules for raising rates again if
prices began to rise, and in the process you would assure markets that the
Fed will have zero tolerance for inflation in the future. Moreover, you would
avoid setting the dangerous precedent, which we may come to rue in the new
century, of allowing the price of gold and other commodities to plummet while
the Fed does nothing.

Beyond this immediate policy change, I believe it is imperative that you use
your influence to initiate steps to move the world back toward a stable
monetary regime anchored to the price of gold. No one else has the
knowledge, respect and experience to do the job. We may slide by without a
disaster as long as you remain chairman of the Fed, but your successor is not
likely to possess your wisdom and luck. Your legacy and the fate of the world
economy depend upon restoring a global monetary anchor as soon as

Sincerely yours,

Jack Kemp

Mr. Kemp was the 1996 Republican vice presidential nominee.

Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition
August 17, 1998
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:07 - ID#284255)
Who else is watching??? - Email chatter.
In his interview on the 700 Club Peter De Jager said anyone who takes
their money out of the bank because of Y2K is a coward.
If you don't mind, I think I'd prefer to be a well-fixed coward in this

When it reaches this level of infantile name calling and school yard bravado, you can be assured the rationality and wisdom of keeping your money in a bank is quickly tarnishing...
Ditto, friend... no money goes into the banks after 8-31-98 this year...

in our little hometown of Winona Lake, Indiana, the clerks are all trained
and ready to spot runs on the bank as early as September this year..

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:09 - ID#219363)
The Keeper of Confidence
The Keeper of Confidence
By JOHN CUNNIFF AP Business Analyst

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The stock market is the keeper of consumer confidence in this economy. It is the barometer that tells people whether it's safe to go out and spend or whether they should save pennies instead. For a long time now it's been telling people they could afford to spend. Why not spend when rising stocks were lifting household assets with them? And when 10,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average seemed within sight? It's known as the wealth effect: If people feel wealthy they also feel confident about enjoying some of the luxuries of the wealthy. They spend, confident that they can always save at a later date. And how they've been spending. And how little they've been saving. The personal savings rate in the second quarter fell to a record low of 0.6 percent of disposable income, meaning paychecks were almost totally spent.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:15 - ID#219363)
Tokyo Stocks Rebound
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese stocks rebounded early Tuesday as investors snapped up bargain-priced shares following a rally on Wall Street. The dollar fell against the yen. The Nikkei Stock Average surged 297.15 points, or 2.0 percent, to 15,091.81 as of midday. On Monday, the average plunged 329.27 points, or 2.18 percent. "Selling yesterday was overdone, and Tokyo stocks may have finally bottomed out," said Yasuo Ueki, general manager at Nikko Securities Co. The Dow Jones industrial average, which has fallen almost 10 percent since its peak of 9,337.97 on July 17, recovered Monday, soaring 149.85 points, or 1.8 percent.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:17 - ID#229207)
Fait quelqu'un ici parlez franais?
Ich mache nicht, sondern ich kann diese Sprache-bersetzung-Software benutzen, um zu vorzugeben.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:17 - ID#153102)
@Wealth Effect
Please factually dispute that only 38% of American households have a stock portfolio.
Is this the same 38% of registered human units that still votes ?
What percentage of people who could be registered human units are registered ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:21 - ID#229207)
El Guardin de Confianza

El Guardin de Confianza
Por JOHN CUNNIFF AP el Analista Comercial

NUEVA YORK ( AP ) --El mercado accionario es el guardin de confianza del consumidor en esta economa. Es el barmetro que les dice a las personas si est seguro salir
y gasta o si ellos deben ahorrar peniques en cambio. Durante mucho tiempo ahora les es dice a las personas que ellos podran permitirse el lujo de gastar. Por qu no gasta cuando las acciones crecientes
estaba alzando recursos de la casa con ellos? Y cundo 10,000 en el Dow Jones el promedio industrial pareca dentro de la vista? Es conocido como el efecto de riqueza: Si las personas
sintase adinerado ellos tambin se sienten seguros sobre disfrutar algunos de los lujos del adinerado. Ellos gastan, seguro que ellos siempre pueden ahorrar a una fecha ms tarde. Y cmo
ellos han estado gastando. Y cmo pequeo ellos han estado ahorrando. Los ahorros personales estn en el segundo cuarto cagase a un registro bajo de 0.6 por ciento de disponible
ingreso, significando paychecks casi estaban totalmente gastados.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:23 - ID#384350)
EJ, Aurator
I speak french. Also, Aurator was looking for a french perspective on things. I think SEQUIN is french.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:23 - ID#219363)
I dunno anything about it guy, I'm just post'n articles I read. *grin*.

EJ - eh ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:26 - ID#229207)
I don't speak French, but your intrepid software geek has landed an interesting bit of machine translation technology that does. I'm wondering how good a job it does, when viewed through the eyes of those who actually speak it.

Je ne parle pas franais, mais votre geek du logiciel intrpide a dbarqu un morceau intressant de technologie de la traduction automatique qui fait. Je me demande comment bon un travail qu'il fait, quand a envisag  travers les yeux de ce qui rellement le parlent.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:29 - ID#219363)
Pretty nifty. I tried the one on Yahoo ( altavista? ) that does that to URL's that you are downloading, runs it through a translator from whatever language into English. It's funny - you get the point of what it's saying, but the text still comes through distorted, good for a laugh, and functional.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:29 - ID#229207)
Gianni Dioro
Lay some French on me. I want to see how well I can translate it back to English.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:39 - ID#219363)
Some Texaco workers freed in Nigeria
Some Texaco workers freed in Nigeria, more taken

17 August 1998

LAGOS, Aug 17 ( Reuters ) - Texaco Inc ( TX.N ) said on Monday that some contract oil workers being held hostage on workboats by villagers in southern Nigeria had been freed while another workboat was seized in a seperate incident. A Texaco official in Lagos said that workers on boats taken hostage by villagers at Kolama more than three weeks earlier were freed unharmed last week although the community kept hold of the boats. He said that meanwhile, the nearby community at Fishtown had taken control of another workboat and its Nigerian crew. "They are demanding that management come down and speak to them. We can suppose it is about money," the official said. "It doesn't affect output, it just means extra expenditure and lost time."

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:40 - ID#207145)
Still scheming to make mo moneys. You be nice and sometime I tell you how not to lose that arse of yours.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:42 - ID#384350)
EJ, Hot rabbits
Clinton est un chaud lapin qui ne sais pas dire non.

Chaud lapin may be translated as a hot rabbit by the machine when in reality it means rabbit in heat, or a horny bastard. We saw the limitations of that translating program when Stephane was posting here. One time it translated clture as fence when in reality it refered to closing price in Stephane's text. Even the "Fais" Quelqu'un was a mistake for Does when the verb to do is used as a helping verb of speak. It should have read something like, Est-ce que quelqu'un parle franais ici?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:43 - ID#433172)
Kapex- Erle
Yeah but they never should have asked the question, lying was the right thing to do under the circumstances. Didn't hurt anybody but the truth would have hurt his family. Most manly thing the fool ever did,IMO.

Erle-Right, we always tell the truth and we are always right. Clinton on the other hand admits to lies and being wrong. He's as smooth as they get, but the woods is full of them.

The girl was an obvious headhunter.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:43 - ID#153102)
If you haven't read Mills on power, his views are likely too limited by his self-image of engineer. When a majority of industry participants project that 50% of customers won't be able to pay their electric bill in Y2K, my personal alert panel flashes red. After an estimated 72 hour introduction to the new milennium without electricity, the black grid will be different shades of brown. For a while anyway. Or else the public utilities that go bankrupt will be purchased by Congress on credit. Or just seized. And operated by FEMA. Oh, boy.

If people can't pay the electric bill, will they be paying taxes ? Hard to say how much foraging might be needed to preserve our masters in the style to which they have become accustomed.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:44 - ID#287367)
So good to see you again. Enjoyed the hell out of our little pow wow. Did you see Shellers' account of the Kitco Konvocation? Would not break my heart to see Dow and SPOOS eat the big one. Don't see much action in metals or mining stocks for a while yet, or until $US craps out. Keep your powder dry, All the best, Namaste, bro!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:47 - ID#255151)
Online Encryption

Hope this URL can be accommodated in this
post. Also, hope I don't mistype the URL.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:49 - ID#207145)
Bill "crack whore" Clinton, the Antichrist of Hope, Arkansas.
He explained it to Hillary. She was distraught, and explained to him how her vagina lips had grown together from disuse. But she said she would support him to the max. She then mangled any "ordinary american" who was her servant. Killed her dog with her bare hands, and slapped the shi* out of an innocent bystander. This family is dysfunctional. Buy they are in love. Ain't love wonnderful.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:50 - ID#255151)
Online Encryption

Hope this URL can be accommodated in this
post. Also, hope I don't mistype the URL ( try one more time )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:50 - ID#335379)
HEllo and good evening Sharefin... I too saw that and was quite appalled.
How is this gentleman trying to help the less informed? By telling us to be part of some sort of lost sheep club? The concept of "doing it for the common good" sounds in this case a bit trite. I must disagree with that mans interpretation of what to do. Our cash will not be held in banks. BAnks do not serve as some sort of depository for the public good. They are well crafted scams to hide power and political content. Even W/O Y2K, possibly no better neuterment of power could take place than if all of us withdrew our cash and converted it all to gold. Fractional reserve banking might have to increase the fraction!
Life is not safe and sometimes the institutions we trust for safety are just as unsafe.
Caution! opinnions may vary widely on this subject. { : )
Unfortunatley Mr Klinton is already asking that we forget and move on.
Sort of like my kid saying well I said I am sorry! With sort of a nonrepentant frown. Forgiveness is a gift not a requirement from those that are not yet sure there is true repentance.
I'm dissapionted that all Starr had was ML! What about all the other shennanigans?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:55 - ID#348295)

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 02:58 - ID#384350)
EJ, Lost in Translations
Clinton est un chaud lapin qui ne sais pas dire non. is translated as Clinton is a heat rabbit which cannot say not. In reality it means Clinton is a horny bastard who can't say no. Translated into french comes, Clinton est un btard corn qui ne peut pas indiquer le non. Which translates back to English is Clinton is a horned bastard who can't indicate the not.

Pretty close, but not the same big deal. Now, I wonder how would translate, "Clinton came before the Grand Jury."

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:05 - ID#264289)
Allen and Squirrel: y2k supplies?

I appreciated the snippets of information that Allen and Squirrel offered about food storage for y2k, etc. Could those of you who have moved to store food and supplies for y2k readiness point me to some information ( or your own experiences ) on what to store ( and how to store it ) ? I am just starting to do this but am not sure my list is comprehensive enough, so I would like some more suggestions. ie; things that one might not think of like the spices that Allen and Squirrel mentioned.

Here's my list so far. Please feel free to add to it.
1. Gold

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:13 - ID#207145)
Another powerful rally
Market oversold. Some technical work must be done, beforea blastoff. One last roar from the bull that brought you riches unknown before. The market will not die before 4 Sep. Until then watch for a blast upward thar could surpass the old high. I know this sounds unacceptable. Noone will make this call. I need some aspirin. And a drink. Talkin about a limb.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:15 - ID#229207)
Gianni Dioro
Clinton is a hot rabbit who doesn't know how to say no.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:18 - ID#207145)
After the powerful rally. A market panic
Years of profits lost in a few days. Rally 1, November thru February, then a steady drop into 2000.The lows will be tested in December.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:20 - ID#229207)
Yo tengo que ir. Yo estoy muy cansado.
Je dois aller. Je suis trs fatigu.

Devo andare. Sono molto stanco.

Ich mu gehen. Ich bin sehr mde.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:27 - ID#207145)
Clinton, son on an alcaholic father
Course mom liked to gamble every weekend. There's his character. Fullbright educated the boy ang gave him connections. Halfbright was his nicname. Quite the Commie. It was on to the Mcgovern campaign in Texas. Later Hillary would be an attack dog for lib demos against Nixon. Nixon was brought down without a vote being cast. They tried to bring down Reagan and George Bush. Now it's the democrats turn.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:30 - ID#284255)
There are some links here under the survival heading.
Plenty to read there.

Who's going to insure the ship, trucks, planes etc???
Insurance warning on year-2000 claims
RBA prepares to print a mint for Y2K rush on cash
Y2K to hit Asia, Europe most, say experts
Y2K not OK
US Govt Lagging Behind Private Sector - Year 2000 Report
Y2K and the FAA: A-OK?
IC Makers, OEMs Seek Protection Against Y2K Defects

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:30 - ID#293184)
I agree, mkt will blast out of here, esp if Fed lowers interest rates.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:36 - ID#284255)
Gary North has some awe inspiring new articles.

Better hope no one belches before then.
As soon as the first big pig,
Bolts for the door, watch out.

Controled distribution is good - yes?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:38 - ID#293184)
The crash which had been scheduled for Oct. and written about extensively
has been cancelled. Regards.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:43 - ID#207145)
Messy 79
Only if you want to die poor.

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:44 - ID#24135)
Got my MOJO workin
Clinton is simply disgusting. That's all I can say.
I really loathe these slimy power jockey types ..
BUT what about the large segment of the American
people that support him ( and believe that he had
something to do with the successful US economy ) .. they
are just as bad.
And CNN with their set-up interviews with the "man
in the street" bullsh!t social engineering.
Im gonna talk to a witch doctor.. Maybe a Sangoma
and a little VOODOO will fix that rat's wagon.

Another subject ..

Kabila's army will fold up like an old accordian.
How long has he got ?? The rebels say 4 days to
Kinshasa. Go rebels..

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:48 - ID#207145)
Underestimating the world's most powerful bull is very stupid. But it has only one snort left. Then in September, if you are long. You WILL look for a ledge. The bull will be over. Those of you who do not remember the August rallys of 29 and 87 will certainly be caught flat footed the rest of August.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:54 - ID#207145)
We've gone down quickly. Oversold. One snort left in an old bull
Then you may regail in your doom and gloom until 2000.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:54 - ID#287337)
George_A - Re: Truth?
There was another guy who asked the question: "What is truth?"

His name was Pontius Pilate

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 03:59 - ID#207145)
I don't count on a high, but it wouldn't surprise too much
Some of you would swallow your tongues at a minimum.Conventional whisdom is almost always wrong. Markets are tricky even for pros.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:03 - ID#207145)
Either the poolls are rigged or the American People are fucked.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:10 - ID#31876)
Sorry, The Editors Wouldn't Print the Kitco Version of This

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:15 - ID#153102)
@At Knowledge Worthy of the Title Golden
A commentary and two comments. The comments first. [Home, Sweet Home will never sound the same ever after.]

This addition by X to my mind actually tracks very well with what we know of the usage of the word resident in American Law after the Great Usurpation.

We commence with the word "reside" in the 14th Amendment which empowers Congress to legislate to compel the states to allow the alien freedmen and their offspring to live in their territory on an equal footing with the citizens of the state.

Now, the federal is an international sovereign. It was this standing as an international sovereign which Lincoln invoked in his first inaugural speech. So, where else but in international law, the law of nations, can anyone seek to understand this word "reside" and its derivative "resident" except in the law of nations.

A sovereign allows aliens to "domicile" for one reason: for the commercial benefit which accrues to the sovereign. And the home or domicile of an alien who has permission to reside is a residence, a commercial location.

I just wanted to point out that Vattel in the Law of Nations defines "Resident" as an alien who is allowed or given permission by the sovereign or state to domicile in the nation or state. I don't disagree with the below definition totally except for the fact that it completely ignores the fact that a "Resident" is an Alien. An alien that is allowed to conduct business or set up a place of business is still a Resident.

Anyone who does not believe that the word "residence" means only
"place of business or commercial operations"; and that the word "address"
followed by numbers and street names assigned by a process of "local
improvements" by federal funds supported by repayment bonds does not
indicate that that particular "residence" is within a "federal area" in the nature of a "dockyard or other necessary building" had better go hit the books.

The controlling meaning of the term "residence" is 26 USC Sec. 280A where it says a "dwelling" is a place for non commercial family life, and "residence" is a place of conducting a trade or business.
See also the controlling meaning of the term "home" at 26 USC sec. 911 ( tax home ) and 26USC sec.162 ( a ) ( 2 ) .
See Blacks Law Dict. 6th under "Home" ( page 733"'home' within I.R.C. 
162 ( a ) ( 2 ) is defined as taxpayer's principal place of business." )
and "Tax home" ( Black's 6th page 1461 "The IRS position is that tax home' is the business location, post or station of the taxpayer." )

Having a "foreign residence" imposes no liability in any "other state", including the one you might be found in at the moment, but if you have a registration or license in the one in which you are found it raises a strong presumption that you are such a "commercial" resident in that state.

The use of the benefit extended to those commercial entities by the state
to encourage them to move their businesses to that particular state, such
as the reduced school rate allowed to "residents" does likewise. All these "residents" are also allowed to "vote" on matters which affect the taxation and regulation of their businesses, or to select the representatives who will enact all the commercial regulations to affect the "residents". All the "residents" have to be "U.S. citizens" who are "residents" having an "address" within a "federal area" in order to vote on those matters. The "State" code defines itself and those "laws" as effective only in the "federal area".

All that having nothing whatsoever to do with either inhabitants or
"Citizens of the several States" ( in the original sense ) domiciled
on and conducting household affairs, ( including but not limited to
conducting ordinary trades or occupations not for profit, but only
to provide the ordinary necessities of life to their households ) ,
on private patented or Allodial lands. Nor to any status
or activity as an "elector" in a de jure original "State" government
if any such might exist.

The statutes mention being a "resident" or having "residence", and what they want you to admit to is a street name and number which is indicated on a map recorded at the local county recorder as being within a local "federal area" pursuant the 4 USC sec. 103 and sec. 110 ( Buck Act ) , so that you are responsible to pay the special assessments for federally funded or insured improvements to your property, AKA property or income taxes, to both the local "State" and federal government, who then transfer the payments to the investors and the Federal Reserve pursuant the 12 USC sec.355. ( Among those investors are the estates of the original Lord Propietors, but that's another subject. )

If you are not one of the above "residents" and your land ought not to have been included in that "federal area", then you missed your chance to object when you failed to appear in the local county superior court when the hearing on the matter was held, after notice in your local newspaper, to object and show cause why it ought not be so included. You may have recourse for lack of knowledge and notice, and you may be able to assert immunity via the USC.


Lack of knowlege of the law is the most expensive thing in the world.

[ Caveat: Those who use the USC perish by the USC. That is to say, the USC is for alter egos.]

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:15 - ID#252391)
To Blooper: Dow 10,000 before Gold $315
The post CLinton confession rally is under way having started about this time yesterday when projections of doom were being capitalized and bolded.

Reaction to Clinton's speech is not running that strong, or as strong as it might have been if he'd been a little more sorry and not tried to dodge around the issue. He should, as I suggested last night, have had Hillary by his side. Ah, but he didn't.

Jack Kemp recommending gold standard - Yes!!! Put him on a ticket with Forbes and we'll have a team to take us into the next century.

Problem I see is that the Republicans will win the next House and Senate elections and be blamed by the electorate for the crash.

You know frankly I'm tired of the Louinski thing. If the only thing Starr has is this issue and the lies to grand juries associated - ok turn it over to the House and see what they want to do. If they have more on other issues I'm interested. Time for Starr to put up or shut up.

He lied about having sex and tried to cover it up - do we impeach?? Is that the only issue Starr has for his 50 million dollars??

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:28 - ID#31876)
If You Thought You Were Angry, Read What These People Are Saying!

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:52 - ID#287337)
Read the link from Gary North's site . . .
about making a large cash withdrawal.

I think this guy's advice may be a little flawed. First, the data submitted on CTR's doesn't just get "thrown in a corner in Washington" it gets entered into the FINCEN database, where it stays for at least 7 years. It is instantly accessible to federal agencies of all sorts ( FBI, BATF, DEA, etc. ) and is available fairly quickly to state agencies.

Security is also an issue here. When you take out lots of cash, the last thing you want to do is advertise the fact with a lawyer's letter to your banker. Not all bankers are honest, benign souls ( Jim McDougal, David Hale and the Keating Five come to mind : ) A bank employee who just happened to be in cahoots with the wrong sort of person could make sure they know just which house to target for a burglary.

Besides the requirements to fill out CTRs, bankers are also required to rat on you to federal agencies when you take out large amounts of cash, and cash is just as siezable by greedy, asset-forfeiture hungry agencies as cars and boats are. And because you've filled out a CTR, they can instantly find out just how much you withdrew, and make you account for it ( i.e. document how much of it you spent, then cough up the rest, or else. )

What's the cure? I think discretion is still the best route, and bank machine withdrawals carefully randomized are the way to go for a few tens of thousands of cash. Remember to randomize your times and locations too- because muggers who become aware of a pattern may target you. Think very seriously about how you'll store your cash- because paper is very perishable. Mold can get it underground, mice can chew it up in a hidden nook in your house. Kind of makes the case for gold and silver coins, doesn't it?

As Bart Robnoel and some of our other coin dealer friends can tell you, there are ways to buy lots of gold coins without triggering CTR requirements from any one dealer- but if you personally buy more than $10,000 of bullion coins or bars in a year, you are responsible for filling out a CTR and sending it in yourself. If you don't do that, you are guilty under the money laundering laws ( both you and the dealers are liable for CTRs ) and yes, indeedy, your coins and bars can become the subject of an asset forfeiture. Say hello to Big Brother, peons!

Gold & silver coins create a special kind of problem. Very few burglars use metal detectors, but if you are subject to an asset forfeiture, rest assured that the agency will comb you property with one, and may even resort to ground radar. There are links on how to deal with this, and paper cash for short-term needs can be hidden in your house so as to be absolutely undetectable, but think about this possibility well ahead of time.

OK, so you've spent a year taking out $20,000 to $40,000 and have some spending money ensconced at home. Of course, you should have been thinking ahead and withdrawing money for several years, but you didn't, and now you've only got a year and a half left. How do you get the rest of your money out? Rest assured that if you start trying to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollard in cash you *will* become a target.

I think you Americans who want to hold large amounts of cash can only do it through offshore entities. Remember too that cash transactions in the US, Canada, Britain, Australia & NZ are transparent between all 5 countries, they all have FINCEN-like computer databases, and they all share information.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 04:57 - ID#342397)
Sharefin @ Peter de Jager
I attended a lecture given by de Jager here in Texas last October or so.
That was certainly not his message at that time. He was taken the fast train outa town then. No hope, etc. etc.

I've noted that he has moderated his views lately. Somebody got to him?? Wouldn't suprise me.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 05:07 - ID#287337)
Jims - Just a few notes . . .
Starr has been the most successful special prosecutor of all time. He has spent $40M ( not $50M ) and has obtained 16 indictments and 14 convictions among the crooks surrounding the Clintons.

Contrast this with L. Walsh who spent $120M over a period of 7 years, brought in 7 indictments and obtained zero convictions! Cox didn't get as many convictions as Starr ( although he didn't get the chance, being fired ) but he does have the distinction of being the first to bring down a president. If Starr brings an indictment or impeachment hearings to Clinton's doorstep, he may even match Cox on that score.

I'm afraid Independent Counsels cost a lot of money, but Starr has actually produced more results per dollar spent than any other special prosecutor, including the ones who investigated Mike Espy and Ron Brown.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 05:24 - ID#240288)
Now I Want You to Listen to Me. I'll Post This Again.

You must have reading relations with this
URL, The Ten Commandments of Gold and Silver

(Tue Aug 18 1998 05:26 - ID#31876)
Grabbe's Morning Site

(Tue Aug 18 1998 05:27 - ID#240288)
What the He..

Try again--

(Tue Aug 18 1998 05:31 - ID#284255)
Steve in To
What's to stop you from sending a cheque to purchase gold?
Say $300k.
That would give you 1000 ounces of gold.

Admitedly if they were to confiscate gold you would miss out somewhat.
But if things got that bad anyway, you would probably miss out, if you had your money in a bank.

I have a feeling that they want to propagate e-money, not go back to the gold standard.
There isn't enough gold to go back to the standard.
As an aside.
During the recent renovations on our home,
I was withdrawing 2k to 3k a week,
And the bank didn't beat an eyelid.
It was too easy.

They're finally waking up. . .
Summertime and the living is queasy . . . with world markets facing another week of living dangerously from Russia to Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and New Zealand.

Some experts say a banking crisis is looming in New Zealand; Korea has bounced back too strongly for some people's liking; bigger problems are looming in Hong Kong as all its major indicators of financial liquidity collapse; parts of Latin America are said to be a disaster in the making; worries about a Chinese devaluation are still growing; Canada's central bank seems to have given up trying to hold its dollar; the Aussie dollar's heading for 55 US cents; and then there's Indonesia.

All this and another week of sliding sharemarkets is finally convincing Wall Street's holdouts that all is not well and worse is to come.

All the usual suspects were rounded up to explain Wall Street's latest fall including the Asian crisis and possible Chinese devaluation, Monica Lewinsky, doubts about the new Japanese Government's mettle, warnings from bearish strategists and, later in the week, the latest Russian economic debacle.

But things weren't going well within the US sharemarkets anyway. Bad breadth hardly ever went away. Even when the major indices were higher there still seemed to be more share prices falling than rising and far, far more stocks hitting 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs.

All the stuff of a full-blown cyclical correction. The ultra-bulls still insist the outlook for corporate earnings isn't as bad as many believe, the US economy is doing fine etc etc while overlooking the fact that markets are not moving on the same old stories and economic numbers but fear and global events as well as a reaction to earlier overvaluation.

Last week, for example, a quiet Monday that seemed like summer Mondays of yore gave way to a noisy Tuesday as global markets shook to the yen's tumble back to June's pre-intervention levels, a boisterous Wednesday mini-rally that might have been a futures-related oversold bounce, a Thursday tumble as Russia went down the tubes again and another mish-mash on Friday with an early rally fizzling as everyone got books square before heading for the Hamptons.

The bottom line is that if the economy and the long bull cycle were different this time, so is the correction. There have been a couple of big down days but no snap-back rallies and, so far, no massive one-day slides like 1987.

The grinding correction that began in April and finally overtook the gorilla stock-dominated indices in recent weeks is slowly turning more and more market measures negative for the year so far.

Only the small-stock-measuring Russell 2000 was negative a few weeks back ( it's now off almost 8 per cent ) but it is now accompanied by the Dow Transports ( minus 7.7 per cent year-to-date ) , a brace of S&P and Nasdaq indices, the AmexComposite and the Value-Line index. The average Big Board and Nasdaq stock is down 35 per cent from its high, a quarter of all stocks have fallen at least 50 per cent and even the gorilla stock-dominated Dow Industrial Average and S&P 500 are down 10 per cent from their record highs and are only up by 6.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively for the year to date.

There's growing belief that the bottom will be somewhere south of where the major indices started the year; perhaps a long way south, ie at least another 700 points off the Dow Industrials and a further 100 points off the S&P 500. The precise point depends on how much fear gets into the market.

Fallen '80s guru Robert Prechter is forecasting the biggest bear market in history, as are a few others, but no one is taking much notice because they've been wrong all through the '90s. They are taking more notice, though, of high-profile bulls-turned-bears like Ralph Acampora and Ed Yardeni, the arch-New Paradigmer and Dow 10,000 by Year 2000 prophet who now looks for a 30 per cent fall in the market over the months to the new millennium - 2000 more points off the Dow!

The benchmark 30-year US Treasury bond's fall to a fresh record low of 5.54 per cent on Friday seems to support that view. It was partly due to a little profit-making by dealers who stopped selling once they'd got paper from the quarterly Treasury refunding at rock-bottom prices, but it was also due to a feeling that the world's crises are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

Few believe another Band-Aid package for Russia or Hong Kong- Government-sponsored sharemarket rally are going to get in the way of a lot more flight-to-quality money heading into US Treasuries. If any Russians had any roubles left they'd probably be buying 30-year US bonds with them now even though billionaire hedge fund guru George Soros says he is sticking to worsening things by writing letters about Russia's problems to newspapers and is not shorting the rouble.

The feeling in New York is that he's busily shorting Hong Kong's currency instead while probing for other profitable vulnerabilities in the international financial system.
Walker Market Letter

As you are undoubtedly aware, the stock market continued its
selloff in the last two weeks. There is little positive to say
about the market's price action. Every rally attempt has been
feeble and met with eager selling.

On Friday the market had its lowest close of this correction. In
fact, the DJIA close of 8425 was its lowest close since 2/25/98.
The SP500 close of 1062.75 was its lowest close since 3/9/98. The
DJIA is now down 10.1% from its high less than a month ago. The
SP500 is down 10.7%. And those large cap indexes are quite a bit
healthier than the broad market. The Russell 2000 is down 18.0%
from its highs and trading in the same range as it was in July
1997! The NASDAQ Composite is down 11.7% from its highs. And don't
forget about those beleaguered Dow Transports, down 17.1% since

July 14th.

All in all, not a pretty picture. However, there might be some
light at the end of the tunnel. You will recall that in our last
issue we had very little good to say about the market. The market
internals were all confirming the decline, and even some pretty
extreme oversold conditions were not able to generate any buying
enthusiasm. Well, we are starting to see some bullish divergences
in the market internals. These are the same type of divergences we
saw at the market bottom on 6/15, and when combined with the still
oversold conditions of the market, they have us looking for a
rally soon. However, we will consider this a counter trend ( or
bear market ) rally.

Well, we have covered quite a bit of ground here, so let's
summarize. The market has been very weak, but there are some
positives. We are starting to see some internals divergences, the
market is oversold, and we have some major support levels below
the market ( 1054 on the SP500, 8300 on the DJIA ) . If those levels
do not hold we expect a quick trip to 8170 before the rally
starts. We will consider the rally a counter trend ( or bear
market ) rally. Bear market rallies tend to be very sharp and very
powerful, but we expect this one to fail, leading to another
series of selloffs.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:01 - ID#26793)
Russia using gold and other precious metals to support the ruble.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:04 - ID#252127)

Remember back when Clinton had that friendly meeting with Newt; that day I lost all faith in the US system.

Congress is so well controlled that probably Clinton will just be given a slap on the wrist. The real American problems will never come to surface with that body presiding.

As for Monica, Jenifer and Paula there being invited to a Afternoon Tea on the White House lawn wouldn't surprise me.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
Russians on a shopping spree before prices go up.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:07 - ID#284255)
Time is.... Time was....
Time Was - to be.
Yes, once the thing
That we call Time
Lay dreaming in tomorrow.
From there to bring
The fruits of all our dreams.
And all our sorrow
All that we sowed, so unconcerned
To ripen some tomorrow.

Time is
Tis in the fleeting now
We sow the seeds
That flower in tomorrows deeds
Today, the fruit that we enjoy
Or bitterly regret
We sowed
In our blind human way
For our own good or ill
Some yesterday.

Into the dim halls of yesterday
Fade those tomorrows
Which for a brief awhile
We called today
But now are gone
Ah God the mystery
Of the transient moments
Which so transform tomorrow
Into this fateful day
Then thru the dreaming nights
With all their joy or sorrow
Just fade away.

Roger Bacon, philosopher of the 14th century, was reputed to have a
'brazen' i.e. brass head, which he consulted for advice. His servant
reported to him one morning that the head had spoken:
'Time is; Time was; Time past' then fell to the floor in fragments - such
a burst of words clearly too much for it.

Fables of such wise heads, and of never failing jugs of wine or milk
or of Genie imprisoned in bottles or lamps were common in those
days . Lotto replaces them in ours!

And humanity still, in spite of 'yesterdays seven thousand years'
of dreadful example, employs the transient moments of today to sow
the seeds of tomorrows tumult and dismay.

Wise the man who seeds his tomorrow with peace and plenty.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
"The time might be ripe for a new World Monetary Order"

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:19 - ID#26793)
The yen may have already seen its low at 147

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:52 - ID#284255)
Simple Y2k precautions

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:57 - ID#289357)
Looking for a rally? Phillips is still short on most funds
Pay attention to this guy - his system is very good for catching the waves.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 06:58 - ID#290306)
What a sorry state of affairs...
The president's address - full text

Bully Beef
(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:03 - ID#259282)
Something will happen today. The bull may snort or the bear may growl.
Let's face it Americans are red faced after Clinton exposed himself last night. ( pun intended )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:10 - ID#284255)
Simple Y2k precautions

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:19 - ID#347267)
Partial Quote:
Well, we have covered quite a bit of ground here, so let's
summarize. The market has been very weak, but there are some
positives. We are starting to see some internals divergences, the
market is oversold, and we have some major support levels below
the market ( 1054 on the SP500, 8300 on the DJIA ) . If those levels
do not hold we expect a quick trip to 8170 before the rally
starts. We will consider the rally a counter trend ( or bear
market ) rally. Bear market rallies tend to be very sharp and very
powerful, but we expect this one to fail, leading to another
series of selloffs.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:21 - ID#208222)
can any one help getting router on line prices sites
thank you

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:24 - ID#289357)

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:27 - ID#289357)
Something should be here for you:

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:45 - ID#26793)
Palladium falls; gold wobbles; "the shorts are in an untenable position"

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:53 - ID#26793)
Indonesian Supreme Court Judge say the rules on debt repayment will be changed

(Tue Aug 18 1998 07:55 - ID#26793)
Euro markets soar; ignore Russia and Clinton problems.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:03 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: Morning all. Lease rates are unchanged at 0.80%
aand 1.70% for one month and one year gold respectively. Forward
rates are unchanged. If AG raises rates today, forward rates would
of course rise, making the gold carry even more lucrative.
If AG raises rates ( insanity ) lease rates will probably rise too,
not to reflect an increase in shorting, but to control the gold
carry. At this point, I don't think most CBs want a lower gold
price ( they just don't want a gold price over $300. )

I think AG will do nothing until the DOW tanks, and then I think we
shall see him lowering rates, not raising them. With lease rates
this low, that will really kill the gold carry, but it won't matter,
gold will be charging up by then anyway.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:10 - ID#183109)
TSCLAW @ RANGY Mon Aug 17 1998 11:05
I wish I had more insight into management. John is far more knowledgeable. I was and am still very pleased with all the info I obtained off Randgold Resources web site. Crunching all the numbers, it still looks like a steal to me. Assume for a second they are close to their $50 million earnings within the next year or twothis is either going to result in an amazing increase in the share price, or a P/E of 1. Ill try to get a more detailed post done this weekend.. Just got back to Japan from the States and have a lot to do this week. If you like, send me your email and Ill send you the stuff Ive collected lately, most of which came from their web site.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:14 - ID#207145)
Strong rally possibly to new highs
Complete with a blowoff and one very strong day when the market will soar hundreds of points. Then a crash starting around the 4th of September. Skeptical? I'll bet you are.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:18 - ID#207145)
Bonds are topping till end of month. Just watch this strange rally. It defies all rationality. But it will be very powerful. Will need a tad more technical work.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:19 - ID#147201)

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:23 - ID#207145)
August in 29, 87 is a rally month
Those of you who think you have it figured out will be shocked. One more snort left in this dying bull. Then a crash that will take away several years of profits in a few days in October. These are exiting times as the
Chinese say.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:27 - ID#207145)
Blowoff top forming. Not quite yet. The launch pad is ready.
Unfortunately it is a short flight. September 4th will bring the death of this mega--bear. October will wipe out all longs.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:28 - ID#411440)
@ Donald: re. New World Monetary Order. There are four options
here as I see it:

1. One could stabilize currencies by taking away the incentive to
speculate on exchange rates. This is done by taxing financial
exchanges, a system called the TOBIN TAX. Bankers would hate
this, as their trillions of dollars in derivative trade would
be taxable ( albeit at very low .1-.2% rates. Think about it.
One point two trillion dollars in daily currency transfers would
be taxable at a fraction of a percent. Govt deficits would
disappear over night. Bankers go purple if you just mention
the Tobin tax.

2. Reenact the Bretton Woods Agreement, but this time, keep in the
clauses that ( you guessed it ) the United States had scratched
from the original document. Lord Keynes really did have the solution
but the changes that the United States insisted on making
allowed the United States to feather its nest at the expense of
the rest of the world, and made the system inheriently unstable.

3. Go back to the gold standard. Sorry people, this will never happen.
There are just too many people opposed to it, much as we might
endorse it.

4. Go back to a semi gold standard by introducing a new flat world
reserve currency, which is partially backed by gold. It's called
the EURO, and it will be done.

IMHO of course.

P.S. If you combine 1. and 4., the new flat currency system might
even last longer than the present system, but all nations would have
to implement the Tobin Tax.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:34 - ID#207145)
Will the Fed be forced to RAISE rates
An imponderable headind into fall, inflation tends to pick up. A big CPI, PPI could well nail a coffin lid shut on this economy. Worth pondering.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:36 - ID#288186)
Here's the latest CPI numbers...
08:31 CPI UP ANNUALIZED 1.5% IN 1998, COMPARED TO 1.7% RATE FOR 1997.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:38 - ID#207145)
Interesting times for those who can think out of the box.
Conventional wisdom will be dumb as dirt.Surprise, surprise, surprise as Gomer Pile used to say.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:40 - ID#207145)
August CPI always great. Bonds top in August.
The CPI in October will be shocking.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:41 - ID#207145)

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:48 - ID#207145)
We will have a rally followed by a decline, followed by a higher rally.
Then ....LIFTOFF for the BLOWOFF.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:49 - ID#288186)
blooper; That's probably a good bet. By that time(actually starting later this month),
energy costs will start rising. Partly because of seasonal factors, partly because of Mid-East tensions, and partly because of the dollar
going down along with the stock market.

These rising energy costs, along with continued increases in food costs
and other rising prices ( ie; medical, housing, services, etc ) will most
assuredly bring the CPI numbers up, IMHO. Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:52 - ID#207145)
Wages the main culprit. Lot of strikes.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:54 - ID#207145)
You are right on though. The others will rise and all together it will be a shocker.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:56 - ID#411440)
@ blooper: are those Oct CPI numbers going to be shockingly
UP or DOWN? If AG raises interest rates, we will see negative
numbrs for the CPI by October. If he stands pat or lowers, CPI
will probably rise.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:57 - ID#207145)
Maybe just a rally to 3rd of September
4th quarter growth very strong. Rising rates are in the cards later.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:59 - ID#207145)
CPI, PPI to be up. Most expect this. I've been hearing all year inflation will pick up in the 4th quarter.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 08:59 - ID#288186)
blooper; Yep. It takes time for these pressures to work into the sytem, and we're
finally starting to see these wage pressures spilling over into price
pressures. The Fed has quite a predicament on their hands ( how to slowly
release the air out of the stock market bubble without it exploding, while at the same time stave off local inflationary pressures, while at the same time, not upset the international currencies and foreign markets ) .Hmmmmm. Can't be done, IMHO. Something will have to change soon!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:02 - ID#207145)
THIS IS NOT THE RALLY. We must go down 1 more time and have a confirmation (higher high).

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:03 - ID#248180)

Tuesday 18 August, 1998 India Economic Times

EMU to aid Asian traders: expert
Our Mumbai Bureau
17 August
IN about 100 days, the European Monetary Union ( EMU ) will be a reality and the new currency - Euro - will be launched. Mr Norbert Walker, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Group, said EMU will create a single European financial market that will rival the US in size as well as create an alternative transaction and reserve currency to the US dollar.
He said, the EMU will be followed by a rationalisation of accounting principles across Europe, and a centralised European investment commission. This will ease matters for investing and trading corporations in Asia, including India, as the countries in the region will be able to study the European market more easily, and could access a cross country market.

With the launch of the EMU, the financial systems of the 11-member countries will get integrated into one with one central bank and one set of regulations covering several strong individual economies. Besides, it will mean open trade without any barrier between the member countries. All this will be facilitated by one currency - the Euro.

Mr Walters said, the developments provided an opportunity for central banks of the Asian countries to diversify their foreign currency holdings from predominantly dollars denominated to Euro, as it would in all probability provide a large and stable option.

He said, central banks of Taiwan, China, and even Singapore were considering putting about 20-30 per cent of their holdings in the Euro. This was reflective of their confidence that the new currency will remain strong, he said.

He said the confidence emerges from the macro possibilities of such a union. The new European financial markets would have one single central bank with access to $375bn of foreign currency funds to ward off any speculative runs on the new currency.

Add to this the possibilities with a market of about 270 million individuals with high per capita income. Mr Walters said, this denoted a large constituency of consumers which an entrepreneur could address through one forum. He was confident that the countries like the UK and Denmark will join the EMU as soon as they see it marching ahead.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:04 - ID#207145)
AG can't do a damn thing. A bear market and a recessionin later on in 99 is in the cards.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:08 - ID#207145)
Rates will have to rise
Inflation will dictate to AG. Rising rates? YES.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:10 - ID#388209)
Dateline London : ... " CLINTON GUMS BULLIT ! "





(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:11 - ID#207145)
The bear growls in 2000 too.
Kind of a BIG BEAR spanning the millineu. Batton down the hatches. Pay off debt. Save money. Much debt will be forgiven world wide.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:13 - ID#288186)
newtron; LOL! Print 'em. Those are keepers! Keep up the good job fellow Kitcoite!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:14 - ID#207145)
Clinton sees the writing on the wall
Next year's economy will destroy Slick Willy.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:16 - ID#335190)
Federal Reserve Borard CORPORATION @ Approves Merger - U.S Justice Approved -Rubber Stamp eh!
August 17, 1998

Federal Reserve approves merger creating
largest bank in United States

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A $57 billion US megamerger of NationsBank
Corp. and BankAmerica Corp., creating the largest bank in the United
States, won final regulatory approval Monday from the Federal Reserve

The merger, announced in April and approved by a 6-0 vote at a closed
meeting of the Fed, vaults the combined bank ahead of the two largest U.S.
banks: Citicorp and Chase Manhattan.
With 4,800 branch offices in 27 states and assets of $580 billion, it will
become the largest bank in the United States and the third largest in the

An even larger merger, still pending, would combine Citicorp and the
Travellers Group.

The U.S. Justice Department's antitrust division approved the combination
of BankAmerica, headquartered in San Francisco, and NationsBank,
based in Charlotte, N.C., on Friday. It required that the companies sell 17
New Mexico branches to maintain local market competition. The Federal
Reserve also made that a requirement of its approval.

The merged company will be called BankAmerica Corp. Its operations,
including 14,000 automated teller machines, will stretch from Alaska to
California along the West Coast, east to Florida and North to Illinois and
New York. It will control eight cents of every dollar deposited in U.S.
banks and savings institutions.

Since the announcement of the merger plans four months ago, the Federal
Reserve collected comments from more than 1,600 organizations and
individuals and conducted a two-day public hearing in San Francisco.

Many expressed concern about the impact on lending to minorities and to
people in poor urban neighborhoods and rural communities. A community
activist in North Carolina started a hunger strike.

But, at a U.S. Senate hearing in June, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan said that while the wave of bank mergers has reduced the
number of banks nationally, it had not had a big impact on competition in
individual markets.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:17 - ID#210163)
donald and the russians selling gold
Donald thanks for posting all of the articles you do. IF the russians are now defaulting rather than selling isnt this the most bullish thing for gold you can have? We now have entered a period of no liquidations of assets and paper takes the hit rather than stuff.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:18 - ID#207145)
He says he didn't screw her ( or inhale ) . I think either he's a fool or a liar. He probably would steal quarters off a dead man's eyes.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:18 - ID#288186)
Gotta go...BBL
+ +

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:22 - ID#287337)
Sharefin - Cheques don't qualify as "cash" under most . . .
countries' money laundering regs.. Remember that cheques have a 7-year paper trail attached to them. That's why the power that be don't worry about 'em as much. If you wander into a car or boat dealership in the US and try to pay cash for some of their wares, the staff are obligated to call the police. If you pay by cheque, though, it's supposed to be OK, although so few people have enough money to buy a boat without taking out a loan nawadays, the staff might report you to the cops if you paid by cheque and they thought you looked suspicious.

This isn't strictly true in Canada or OZ. The staff of a dealership can't be charged under the law if they fail to report you to someone when you pay cash for a car or boat, but they sometimes might call the police anyway if they had a feeling you were a sleazeball. And all five cooperating countries have the same $10,000 currency reporting requirements, i.e. if you try to withdraw more than $10,000 in cash, carry more than $10,000 in cash with you out of the country ( note: travellers' cheques are considered to be "cash" under these regs. ) or if you transfer more than $10,000 out of the country.

Note that to my knowledge the US is the only country that has introduced "structuring" laws, so that making a number of withdrawals that add up to $10,000 in a short period of time is a violation. You should check, but I'm pretty sure that you're OK there in ANZA to take a few thousand out at a time whenever you want. It's OK in Canada, although if you were charged with drug dealing or money laundering they might use it as evidence against you in your trial, even though it's not illegal in and of itself. Note also that asset siezure is only performed in Canada against people who have actually been caught running drugs or laundering money, they only sieze the property actually used in committing the crime, such as the boat or car, and the money gained, and the property only reverts to the crown upon conviction. They don't sieze things preemptively like they do in the US, they don't sieze stuff from people who are minor players ( like siezing a person's house when they are caught with some marijuana plants growing in the window ) and they return things when they are proven to be wrong. I don't know what the siezure situation is like down under- maybe you can enlighten us?

Buying gold coins or bars is the same as buying cash. In the US, however you pay for it, if you buy more than $10,000 in a one-year period from a dealer, he has to submit a CTR. If you buy more than $10,000 in one year from more than one dealer so that none of them are obligated to file CTRs, you are still under obligation to file one yourself ( I wonder how many of them ever get submitted? : )

Remember that paying for bullion by cheque can be a proverbial "dumb thing to do" if you want anonymity, since a piece of paper documenting your purchase will be in the bank's records for 7 years. Same with credit card purchases, unfortunately. At least it doesn't lead to problems with a local banker being aware that you have large amounts of cash on hand.

You'll have to check on the laws governing bullion purchasing in OZ. I'd rather defer to Bart for info. on reporting requirements in Canada.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:25 - ID#207145)
Remember. Adrop in here. A higher rally than this. Then the real rally
Also, rates will rise not fall. Rates are toppingg into Sep 1.Cash or Gold. Boys gold is going to rally. I don't think the Oct. crash will be kind to gold either. So avoid crash time. Mid october around CPI, China devaluation.
Good luck. I will stay in cash till the crash.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:31 - ID#207145)
Bonds top early Sep. Then we get a GOLD RALLY.
Bonds have had it. They are as good as they can get, by Sep 3rd.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:37 - ID#388209)
This S&P Market is ASBEFORE :
DBIGTN ! Dead befor it got the news !

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:38 - ID#388209)
Yes ? No ? ... Oh, WHATEVER !

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:38 - ID#207145)
Mr contrarian is burned out.
Going to watch Maria Bartiromo. Maybe a little fanticizing. Monica baby, come to daddy. Whats that Prez got that I don't got. A 2 inch penis.No stroke room. Blojobs only. Poor Prez.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 09:44 - ID#388209)
This just in from the Vatican Daily Express & Confessional : " SHE A GULPA, ... MI NO A CULPA ! "

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:10 - ID#426220)

Founder and manager of the Prudent Bear Fund is a man who knows
Bear Markets -- inside and out. Mr. David Tice shares his encyclopedic
market knowledge in his report entitled "AMERICAN BUBBLE:
As in the 'Twenties,' it will burst, Bringing deflation and painful recession."

"Today's bubble will burst as did the bubble of the 1920s
and we will face the potential for dangerous deflation
accompanying a very painful recession. The trigger will
undoubtedly be a broad and deep stock-market decline set
off by any number of factors, most likely a sharp decline
in corporate profits or a significant problem in a
foreign economy ( but probably not higher interest rates ) ."

"The prevailing view today is that the 1930s Fed made a
huge mistake by being restrictive and, having learned its
lesson, will be extremely accommodative to avoid any
future deflationary bout. Rothbard found that the Fed
tried mightily to inject reserves, yet still there was a
contraction in the money supply."

See THE ENTIRE Tice Report at the following URL. It will be necessary
to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting
the URL to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:11 - ID#242325)
Market timing

for 8/18/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/18/98 close: 10.29

Return on current trade: 0.49%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 11.38%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -1.63%

Market Commentary:

We told subscribers in Monday's newsletter that we were expecting a
turning point in the 8/17 +/- 1 day timeframe, and that we expected this
turning point to mark a short-term low. The question now is whether
Monday's morning low and subsequent rally marks this short-term low. The
evidence is somewhat mixed, but in our estimation the answer is a
resounding NO.
For one thing, the volume on Monday's rebound rally was only 586
million shares. This is the lowest trading volume seen since 7/20, and,
as such, does not confirm Monday's rally. With such weak volume we do
not expect to see any follow through to the upside tomorrow. Secondly,
on a day when the S&P jumped 20.92 points ( 1.97% ) , and the Dow gained
149.85 points ( 1.78% ) , Advancers barely managed to beat out Decliners by
a slim margin of 1573 to 1390 issues. That's right, only 183 net
advancing issues supported this "blockbuster" rally. Talk about your
transparent rallies. And even worse than Monday's lackluster breadth and
volume, was the weakness in new highs versus new lows. New lows actually
increased to 274 issues from Friday's reading of 231 issues, while new
highs only increased to 34 issues from Fridays reading of 33 issues. So,
in spite of Monday's big blue-chip rally, market internals, and the
broader market actually deteriorated from Friday's levels. In short, we
feel that Monday's rally was the mother of all sucker rallies, and that
much lower prices are on the way soon.
In fact, if Monday's rally is the completion of a contracting
triangle corrective rally from 8/5-8/17, then we can expect that our
8/17 turning point will mark a short-term high rather than a short-term
low. If this is the case, then a powerful thrust to the downside should
begin within hours of Tuesday's open. Such a downmove could carry the
S&P 500 as low as the 1015-1020 area by the end of the week. Tomorrow
will be a crucial day in determining which scenario is the correct one.
If the market closes above SPX 1087 Tuesday, we could then see this
rally extend at least into Friday's expiration and could carry as high
as 8700-8800 on the Dow and 1100-1110 SPX.
Short-term sentiment readings provided some hope for the bulls. The
OEX put/call ratio came in at 1.38 Monday. This is a level which can be
construed as short-term bullish. The Rydex ratio fell sharply from
Friday's 119% to a 96% reading on Monday. This is still a high level,
and thus is supportive of more rally short-term. However, more
importantly, our buy/sell indicator never reached the buy zone, and, in
fact, actually moved closer to the sell zone with Monday's rally. So,
without a buy signal from our buy/sell indicator we are very skeptical
of this rally, and are looking for lower prices dead ahead.
So, we have a somewhat muddied picture presented to us by the
market. Market internals, and our buy/sell indicator argue for lower
prices ahead. Market sentiment numbers argue for more rally ahead. We
will have to watch Tuesday's action closely for clues as to whether our
turning point date of 8/17 +/- 1 day will lead to a rally or to another
sell-off. We favor the bearish outlook, and look for another sharp
sell-off in the coming days. Therefore we remain short the market via
our current Ursa trade. We will asses this position in the coming days.

Eng . Adam__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:13 - ID#229405)
gold prices sites requist
hi every one be carful have good luck
can any one told me the sites of router on line of gold prices or others
sites or mail to me at

Eng . Adam__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:13 - ID#229405)
gold prices sites requist
hi every one be carful have good luck
can any one told me the sites of router on line of gold prices or others
sites or mail to me at

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:15 - ID#411259)
..... I have been so blind .....

It is so obvious to me now
Contrary to bloops assertion
That James Carville is ET
I finally realize his true identity:
Carville and fumpy are indeedy
One and the same
They sure sound the same
I wonder if they look the same?
( I would not wish that on anybody )
Soooooo..... JC = fumpy
Makes sense
Don't it?

It do

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:21 - ID#290281)

Not that I wish to berate an aged topic, but the two largest holders of U.S. treasuries, Japan and the U.K., have sold off $60.0 billion over the last few months. That represents 10% of their total holdings, a not inconsiderable percentage. Those holdings were not sold into the open market ( far too visible and dangerous ) , nor acquired by the Fed as "assets" ( ditto above ) . The only other way this could have been accomplished is through the "monetizing" of the debt, i.e. via the Fed's printing presses. This dovetails nicely with the rise in the U.S. money supply numbers, both in amount and timing. Incidentally, while I wish I could so claim, this is not my effort, although I admire the work of the researcher behind these findings.

This unobtrusive dispatching of treasuries is nice work if it can be pulled off without rousing the neighbourhood dogs, or other substantial treasury holders, but there are two problems nevertheless.

- Others, should they learn of it, can be expected to follow suit, ( not wishing to be left holding a rapidly depreciating paper asset ) .

- the world is then even more awash in greenbacks, which if history is a guide, would cause the purchasing power of all circulating bucks to decline.

Most central banks consider inflation as far less dangerous than deflation, so there is no question as to how the Fed should be expected to respond. Nor should we be surprised to discover that Rubin and Greenspan will use any means available to protect the bond market, given its size and importance.
Heaven help us if this is a harbinger of future events,.....which seems a given at this end.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:27 - ID#290281)
I refuse to believe that Abby Cohen is as totally bereft of functioning neurons as her public utterances would lead one to believe. All humans make beaucoup mistakes, but the tendency is to learn from same. In blunt terms, I don't think the lady is as dumb as her remarks suggest. If that observation is accurate, then she is fibbing through her bicuspids, probably to keep the market "whole", until post Goldman's IPO. In her position, she has access to data that the rest of us would kill for, hence she can harbour few illusions as to just how close to a deflationary meltdown really is. To feed a naive and heavily exposed public this snake oil potion at this point in time isn't criminal, but it comes close. As has been the case with other high profile analysts, a 180 degree back flip should be expected,.... ( again post IPO ) which will position her "call" appropriately for the record.
The lady has no class.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:30 - ID#147201)
Shadowfax re TSY
That was an excellent expose. I have had my suspicions in accord. It is probably why Rubin dropped the min tsy amt to $1000; and may go down to $100. Thanx, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:31 - ID#410194)
Another funny look into the past...(9 months!)

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 13:57
HERRN GOLDFINGER , #244354, and MOre of the same! As I stated very clearly for you last evening, my most reliable stock indicators are all NEGATIVE and on SELL SIGNALS! If Dec. gold can take out $325 on a weekly close, I believe the BOTTOM is in for gold! The problems we are having in
the Asian banking system ( read China, HK and Japan ) are now spreading to BRAZIL and ARGENTINA! Mexico is next and then the US! Bonds are serving as a SHORT TERM HAVEN, but LONGER TERM as we are seeing in today's $4.30 rise in the price of gold, GOLD will be the haven of LAST RESORT as currency debacles topple one bank after another and lead to global chaos and confusion as to what REAL VALUE is and WHAT WILL TOPPLE NEXT! If you can't stand REALITY then COMMITT yourself to an institution where you can play house and garden oblivious to the REAL WORLD around you!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:31 - ID#431200)
Until this weekend Mrs. Clinton believed her husband's denials of sex with Lewinsky and was stunned by reports that he might belatedly admit it. HILLARY & CHELSEA HUMILIATED


WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton is trying to cope with "the humiliation of it all" but is still standing by her man, Jesse Jackson says.

"Hillary had to face the humiliation of it all," said Rev. Jackson, who huddled for two hours with the First Lady and daughter Chelsea, and then briefly prayed with them and the president.

"But then, she is mature and they are in love and the marriage will survive this.

"I think what's most important to ^the president_ is that Chelsea and Hillary are standing with him and I suppose if that strength were not there, he would really be in bigger trouble."

Jackson said he talked with Mrs. Clinton and her daughter about "faith and unconditional love."

The First Lady and Chelsea were in seclusion in the White House yesterday as the president testified before the Sexgate grand jury about sex and lies with Monica Lewinsky.

In late January, Mrs. Clinton said that if the allegations of an affair with Lewinsky were true, it would be "very serious."

She was asked on NBC television if her husband should resign if it turned out he lied about not having extramarital sex with the intern.

"If all that were proven true, I think that would be a very serious offense," she said.

"That is not going to be proven true."

Lewinsky also was out of sight yesterday - there was no sign of the ex-intern at her family's apartment at the Watergate complex. Some people there said she'd gone out of town before the weekend.

Lewinsky spokeswoman Judy Smith declined to say where Lewinsky is or whether she's monitoring news coverage of Clinton's testimony.

A source close to Lewinsky said she doesn't know when or whether she'll be called back to testify to the Sexgate grand jury, perhaps to rebut some of Clinton's testimony.

Paula Jones - whose sexual-harassment case against Clinton led to Sexgate when her lawyers subpoenaed Lewinsky - was home in Los Angeles.

As the president testified, Hillary Clinton's press secretary, Marsha Berry, declined comment on Jackson's claim that Sexgate has left the First Lady coping with humiliation.

Last winter, when Sexgate erupted, Mrs. Clinton went on television to adamantly insist her husband had never had sex with Lewinsky and blamed the charges on a "vast right-wing conspiracy."

Lewinsky got her job as a White House intern through Democratic fat cat Walter Kaye, who has ties to the First Lady.

News leaks from pro-Clinton sources claimed that until this weekend Mrs. Clinton believed her husband's denials of sex with Lewinsky and was stunned by reports that he might belatedly admit it.

But when Sexgate again exploded this month after Lewinsky agreed to tell all and turned over a dress said to be stained with Clinton's semen, the First Lady remained low-profile and did no TV interviews.

She did just one brief telephone interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette newspaper last week, this time blaming anti-Arkansas prejudice for her husband's woes.

Mrs. Clinton and Chelsea are slated to leave with the president on a two-week family vacation in Martha's Vineyard, probably today.

The freebie vacation - said to be at an ocean-front mansion loaned by a wealthy Democratic builder - was supposed to start Saturday, but was delayed by the president's Sexgate testimony.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:36 - ID#290281)
Excellent article in James Grant's recent issue. Title is "Buffet Sells without Selling". Well worth the read as it examines how The Great One may be moving his portfolio from stocks to bonds. There's probably a URL out there somewhere.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:38 - ID#286262)
Goldman Sachs IPO
The market manipulators may let the market go after Goldman partners can sell their stocks. I would like to put that IPO offering date on my investment calendar.

A significant drop in the market prior to those insiders reaping their profits would be very bearish, signalling the defeat of some major forces behind the current bubble, IMHO.

Does any one know the date of issue for the IPO? Would post-IPO Goldman-Sachs make a nice short? How long would they need to keep the market up for those people to cash out in a semi-orderly fashion?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:54 - ID#426220)
Y2K In Arab Lands: Complacency Leads to Panic

The IMMINENT GOLD BULL may be sparked in the Middle-East which has
always had a strong affinity for the shiny yellow metal.

Sunil Madhok, a resident professional of Dubai - United Arab Emirates - has Some very insightful and incisive observations on how the united Arab world is reacting to the looming MILLENNIUM MENACE. He believes the UAE has still to grasp the dire ramifications of the Y2K Bug.

In fact Madhok asserts, " some haven't yet heard about the Y2K problem and are doing nothing to make their software Y2K compliant."

Even worse: "There has been very little written on this subject in the
local newspapers. The awareness among most UAE citizens is near zero."

Almost all oil companies are big and use the latest technology.
It is not publicly known whether these companies are already compliant
or they are working on compliance.

In short, ignorance of the Y2K peril is pervasive -- there are literally
NO sectors of the Arab environment which seems to have at least
an inkling of the looming dangers. Therefore, this will eventually
lead to panic in 1999.

Sunil Madhok observes, "Sooner or later the press is going to get alarmed
and they will finally start telling the people about the dangers of Y2K.
Millennium Bug related failures will begin to occur possibly as early as this year. Coverage will be given to sensational failures and/or Y2K noncompliance disclosures by giant companies."

MOST IMPORTANTLY, " there is talk of US$600 billion of Middle Eastern
money invested in US stocks and bonds. Imagine if a significant portion of this is brought back or converted to precious metals."

History IS TESTAMENT that when the Arab world is menaced by
extreme uncertainly, it has traditionally turned to GOLD FOR REFUGE.

It is indeed interesting to consider that US$600 billion of Middle Eastern Money in US securities is TWICE the value of all Central Bank gold reserves in the entire world - estimated at about 35,000 metric tonnes. With Wall Street going to hell in a hand basket, it does not take too much imagination to devine that Arab money will soon dump 'paper' investments - and flee to the 'OASIS" of GOLD.

See Sunil Madhok's report at the following URL. It will be necessary to
delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL
to the Internet:

(Tue Aug 18 1998 10:58 - ID#187109)
keep up the good cut&paste. It does us all good to keep some perspective at..... ( what did herr cheese call it yesterday ) ............EB's mindless rantings?? or something like that........

We may have ANOTHER Puetz in the making. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock.....

Seems that old 3-2-5 # has haunted MANY here............

Hey CHEESE! How is that crash coming along?? Nine months later and still no baby.........whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah! Put a fork in him. ( seems to be the line of the week ) .........

I am archiving bloops stuff to air nine months from now.......he probably won't be around to re-read them though.......and my new 7.2gig drive probably can't handle the load either...........

too many pundits not enough...... ( ah....forget it ) await more C&P

......i have hacked bart's site and erased all my bad calls....... ( grin ) ..........ohmy!


( this is not a recomm to buy or SELL!!! )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:02 - ID#153102)
@I Don't Think So
"Buying gold coins or bars is the same as buying cash. In the US, however you pay for it, if you buy more than $10,000 in a one-year period from a dealer, he has to submit a CTR. If you buy more than $10,000 in one year from more than one dealer so that none of them are obligated to file CTRs, you are still under obligation to file one yourself ( I wonder how many of them ever get submitted? : ) "

Court Case or Statute Citation Please

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:05 - ID#187109)
trader vic....whoever you are....
how is the 'perfect' head and shoulders shaping up??? twenty five you say?.....hmmmmmmmmmm.....that just means buy more! to me......see ya in December. search for more 'perfect' heads and shoulders

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:05 - ID#31876)
By The End of Today
We should be able to find details. There are unconfirmed
stories on Wall Street that China and Japan are dumping U.S.
treasuries today. This is from a phone call from a friend.
Web search currently shows nada, so I cannot post more.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:06 - ID#187109)
where in hell is
TeddO when ya need him!!

go gold!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:09 - ID#246224)
Why would anyone want to be invested in a manipulated market?
That these things are done openly in Asia and hardly in secret in the West AND that no one raises an alarm or even considers it an illegal activity is INDICATIVE of our total blind averice.

If you were an individual and you did this you would be shuttered for 20 years. If you were a corporation and you did this you would be fined tens of million of dollars and your officers would be in jail. If you are the government, its OK.

Have we gotten so used to being a bananna republic of the powers that we no longer are even mildly indignant at their corruptions?

This game is rigged. Play accordingly or not at all.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:21 - ID#33184)
On the wires ....
Pushing the $/yen down this morning was a rumor that a central bank, presumably the Bank of Japan, was selling U.S. T-bills, 2 and 5 year notes in preparation for an intervention. Veteran market watchers doubt this rumor because Japan usually sells treasuries during or shortly after interventions. The $/yen this morning broke support levels at 145.30 and 145.00, but bounced back above 145.00.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:26 - ID#147201)
Allen your 11:09
Very good. It's like beingin the army. The media is the first seargent and a very polite one, so you keep following the party line. No matter that the weasel is so slick that you never know till you have been had.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:28 - ID#187109)
Allen & stuff
Markets will do what markets will do......regardless of any 'manipulation'.

don't fight it......join it.

away.......from this kitco that blows my mind always


(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:29 - ID#373284)
Clintler is garbage...hiding behind his wife's skirts and Chelsea, what a punk...
this Bible toting ruse of hiding behind God and familythe latest in Clintlers gallery of deceit is perhaps the most despicableI aint the most religious fellow in the traditional sensein that I mean that I do not subscribe to many of the conventional beliefsbut I do know a sacrilegious bastard user when I see one and Clintler is the poster child of that

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:31 - ID#249206)
sloping head and shoulders ???
Look at the last 6 months, or so, of the Dow ... if the
high of mid July is the high, then is there a sloping
head and shoulders building? The left shoulder could
be at the first week of May. That would make the right
shoulder about 10 weeks from mid July, or end of September
at about 8750. And the roll off would occur in October.

I don't have any charting software, so I can't call the
dates. Someone with such software might estimate what the
base line is and let us know if any of this makes sense.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:31 - ID#289357)
Hmmmmmm - Cash reporting info

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:33 - ID#373284)
but then again, I think that is the completely...100%...take the
polarization of America to heinous levels...that is the punk's role...wild pigs would not eat from his diseased body...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:35 - ID#255151)
500 Days Till Y2K

Only one thing to do...ROAD TRIP! About 50 of us from work are heading up to Chicago in a chartered bus to see the Cubs. How appropriate. Cubs-bear market-get it? Anyway, this is usually a no holds barred affair that makes "Tail Hook" look like an English garden party. Thinking about heading over to the CBOT and stirring things up a la Trading Places. The CBOT is on Whacker Drive, I believe. Also appropriate, given the political backdrop today. Will report back in about 15 hours, assuming no arrests. Go Cubs!

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:36 - ID#33184)
More Russia News - fears of bank runs
Commercial banks in Russia are closed, fearing a run on assets. The black market rate for U.S. dollars is between 8 and 10 rubbles for the dollar. It seemed Russia only devalued after it went to G-7 for more money and was turned down.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:37 - ID#284255)
EB@scratching his head??
How longs this rally going to last?
If I was to copy you CAPS and post bank in a few months you'd probably be spot on.

The traders must be lapping up this volatility.
Profits abound.

Back to the spam.

Strad Master
(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:39 - ID#250297)
Clinton comments
GOLDTEK: Forgive me for being overly cynical but IMO anyone who buys the story that Hillary was in the dark until Sunday would also be a candidate to buy a bridge in Brooklyn that is up for sale. Hillary is just as drunk on power as Bill is. They will do ANYTHING to cling to it. I suspect that the only thing that went on this weekend at the Clinton household was an attempt to figure out what scenario would spin best in Peoria. "Poor cuckolded wifey! Ah yes, but she stands by her man." ( With a little dollop of "unconditional love" thrown in, courtesy of the DEEPLY spiritual Reverend Jessie. ) Gimmie a break... By the way, was it just me, or did anyone else notice that some of the lines in last nights speech seemed to have been lifted verbatim right out of the Michael Douglas movie "An American President"?

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:39 - ID#209265)
Vronsky et al - comparisons to 1929 . . .
Tice is right, situations can arise where deflation escapes from central bank control. Even on this board people keep repeating the party line that "deflation won't happen, because the Fed can always inflate."

It's simply not true that he Fed was too restrictive in 1929-1932. They tried to inject liquidity and they couldn't do it. The banks wouldn't take the money!

Exactly the same thing has happened in Japan. The BOJ keeps trying to inflate- and nothing happens. The Banks won't take the funds and loan them.

Now you know why A. Greenspan was sounding so worried in his recent talk about avoiding a 1929-1932 or 1990's Japan-style debacle. Greenspan is a smart guy, and he has access to data that let him look further down the road than we can. When he starts sending out these semaphores, we should all pay attention IMHO.

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:40 - ID#57232)
Banks -- quarterly derivatives reporting
All: This is from the Office of the Controller of the Currency. Apparently certain information about derivatives traded must be disclosed. This is the first time I have seen anything like this.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:42 - ID#31876)
Something is Happening With U.S. Treasuries. Read This.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:45 - ID#254269)
Clinton; Local talk radio show host had an interesting observation re this.
He said that we should not assume that the 70% ( his figure ) of
Americans who oppose impeachment, are Clinton supporters. He is saying that they are "opposed" to impeachment for practical reasons, because it
"would take too long, etc".

I watched the speech last night and think that Bubba had more enemies after the speech than he did before. He is total arrogance.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:46 - ID#153102)
@New Monetary Order
Gold is monetary in international banking and trade. I regard this as a given based on known facts. The Euro has gold as a reserve.

The unknown about the future of gold is where gold will be "publicly" traded in the future.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:51 - ID#209265)
Mozel - US money laundering regulations require everyone . . .
bankers, bullion dealers and the customers themselves to file CTRs. If a customer accumulates or transfers reportable amounts, and no one else files a CTR, they can be charged with a felony and face up to a $250k fine.

Take a look at the case of Dr. Low:

There is also other legal info available at the F.E.A.R. ( Forfeiture Endangers Americans' Rights ) site ( )

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 11:58 - ID#57232)
President -- 'lost during testimony' -- M Drudge
All: Apparently his grand jury testimony was less than stellar. I think the potential impeachment process will move forward slowly. WJC's ace in the hole is the access to the FBI files that he can threaten to use on the Republicans. Only the spotless ones will be able to accomplish anything. Wonder how many there are.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:02 - ID#288186)
Leland; Regarding your U.S. treasuries info, Hmmmmmm....It could get real
interesting for the rest of this week! Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:03 - ID#229207)
Prosperity leads to peace, as dispair leads to...
Singapore's Information Minister
Worries About 'Forces of Reaction'


SINGAPORE -- As economic pressures create fissures in Asia's social
edifice, leaders of this small nation are on the lookout for a resurgence of
the reactionary forces that plunged the region into war six decades ago.

In an interview, Singapore's minister for information and the arts, George
Yeo, likened Asia's predicament to the global depression that helped usher in
Germany's Nazis and Japan's militarists in the 1930s.

"If we're not careful and we don't manage the financial crisis well, similar
forces of reaction will arise," said Mr. Yeo, who is also second minister for
international trade and industry.

The minister's comments come amid a series of statements and policy
changes that cast Singapore as an island of openness and reform in a region
being punished for the sins of poor government. Prime Minister Goh Chok
Tong has been preaching the virtues of free trade. His predecessor, Senior
Minister Lee Kuan Yew, over the weekend attributed the suffering in other
countries to the results of collusion, corruption and nepotism. And last week
Mr. Lee's son, Lee Hsien Loong, deputy prime minister and chairman of the
Monetary Authority of Singapore, announced new rules relaxing some
restrictions on the use of Singapore's currency in international trade.

Mr. Yeo said Singapore's government, in power since Singapore's
independence 33 years ago, is overhauling its regulatory system to adapt to a
changing global environment in which the free market -- not governments --
increasingly sets the rules. Singapore hasn't been spared from the region's
crisis. Asset prices are tumbling and bankruptcy and unemployment are

Speaking in his office overlooking the port that has been the lifeblood of this
nation poor in natural resources, Mr. Yeo singled out information technology
-- the advanced computer networks that power the Internet and the financial
systems that enable traders to move billions of dollars around the world in an
instant -- as the primary catalyst behind the challenges to Asia's status quo.

Information technology, he said, was posing a threat to both Asia's
traditional social hierarchy and to governments' ability to control their
economies. The trick for Singapore, he said, would be to move its cultural
strengths into cyberspace and capitalize on its reputation for clean business
to remain a trusted financial center.

He said his biggest worry, however, was that economic hardship would give
rise to the "forces of reaction." Mr. Yeo pointed to the violence against
ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, Australian politician Pauline Hanson and her
campaign to restrict Asian immigration, as well as Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad, who has blamed some of his country's problems on
international currency traders.

"When people are hungry and in despair, they want simple explanations,"
Mr. Yeo said. "And there will be any number of leaders who will stand up to
give them simple explanations."
Return to top of page | Format for printing
Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:06 - ID#153102)
CTR means cash transaction report. Dr Low made cash withdrawals. Gold is a cash equivalent for seizure purposes, but it is not a cash equivalent for reporting purposes. Cashier's checks are however a cash equivalent. Read the CTR instructions for knowledge of the other "cash equivalents" for reporting purposes.

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:10 - ID#209265)
Great WJC cartoon . . .

Hee hee . . .


(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:18 - ID#229207)
The "D" word coming into common use in new lowered earnings reports
Toys R Us Profits Fall
Toys R Us, the biggest toy retailer in the world,
said yesterday its second-quarter profit fell more
than 60 percent, as expected, but sales dropped
more than anticipated. The company said the
decline was primarily due to lower sales of video
hardware, including the impact of price deflation,
as well as lower sales of virtual pets, plush and
action figures, all of which had very strong sales
a year ago.

Rueters Aug. 18, 1998

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:22 - ID#209265)
Forget Y2k . . .
What about Year 3000?!

- steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:23 - ID#298380)
For Cheesehead, Blooper, Etc.
Clinton wiggled his way out, The DOW is moving forward just like I said
two weeks ago. I buy you boys books, send you to school and you tear out
the pages and wipe your a** with them.
Clinton will NOT be impeached The airhead republicans in congress will
not give Gore a two year headstart. They know better.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:24 - ID#402148)
EJ got little kids? ....With all respect, they should be using the W word (Walmart)
...You can buy most all Toys-R-Us offerings at Walmart at lower prices, and don't have to make a special trip to a toy store.

Asia is the new scapegoat for bad management.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:25 - ID#147201)
Strad Master re 11:39
You sure have your head out and up. I bet there are plenty candidates for the Bridge. Between the administration and the press, there has never been such lying. Thanx for the clarification; I have already agreed and been amazed at this turn of events

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:26 - ID#209265)
Mozel - Check with Robnoel
about the realities of reporting gold purchases. Dealers do indeed have to report them, and they have to report them if more than $10k are accumulated in a year. Don't know which reg. says they're reportable, but they are!

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:27 - ID#246224)
EB, you facile dude, you.
When the Hong Kong governmental authorities openly buy the market they are basicly violating the principles of free markets. When Japan openly discusses seizing Japanese Postal Saving monies to use in buying the market, it is the same. When is a market NOT a market? When the government uses your money to prop it up, dude.

Its happening here more subtly via S&P and other index options. Same, same.

I know you are a pragmatist and that such tainted ways do not bother you at all. But the problem is that this breach of trust has altered the behaviour of the charts. The rationale for these movements have been political, not market movement or fundamentals. This tampering has short circuited the market's behaviour in terms of its corrective moves. This is near term expedient, but it is also culpable, because when the eventual disintegration occures, people will hang those who did this to them. Like a Doctor who stops by the side of the road to help in an accident: he is opeing himself up to tremendous liability for his trouble.

Let us also consider the case of those who know when and how interventions will occure. This knowledge alone is worth a few fortunes. In a corrupted system there is no reason to hold onto the notion that the rules are fair and that all players have more or less the same information to work with. If the board is tilted to the house then why play???

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:29 - ID#24135)
Top is in for yen ..
to all ..
at least my genetic connection
says so.. from now on it gets
stronger ..
.. Gold silver ratio is ALMOST
... some fool has made the dog-
bones average MAD .. Ben warned
you about that.. He's back to
dry dog food and hating it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:31 - ID#317193)
Dow...WOW...does this mean if you lie and then grovel when caught your a man of...
Honor? Guess so, interesting times. Do you think other countries trust us now? How about foreign flight to safety money. Enjoy and profit while it lasts. The foundation is not sound but you can make some bucks here folks...not on gold...yet.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:31 - ID#347172)
Hillary for President
As has been noted in previous posts, the window of opportunity for Hillary has never been better. If she were to go on the networks with the same lies that WJC espoused last night, she would corner the market on sympathy of the American people. Also, by declaring that she was divorcing WJC and running for the Democratic nomination in 2000, in one fell swoop she would be the front runner. There would be no stopping her,Al Gore would have to step asside as she would be basically installed in office.
Heaven help us, I believe she is worse than WJC.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:31 - ID#215235)
POG Rising
The POG has reversed from down around a dollar to + $.10. The down draft seems to have bated recently. Maybe we have finally begun to trace a bottom? The worm is turning!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:35 - ID#320202)
Gold stocks tend to move ahead of POG, seeing some movements

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:37 - ID#421269)
One month gold lease rates .42% one month, how low can we go

Gold prices mixed after U.S. opening

LONDON, Aug 18 ( Reuters ) - Gold traded choppily after the start of U.S. trade on Tuesday, with dealers seeing holders of short market positions placing further bets on lower prices.

London gold fixed at $284.25 an ounce in the afternoon, just down on the morning's $284.40, as spot metal softened to be last traded at $284.60/$285.10 versus New York's previous close of $284.90/$285.40.

Fund net short positions in New York's COMEX gold had risen sharply to 59,710 lots as of August 11, compared with 39,767 lots two weeks earlier, according to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data published late Friday.

But that did not imply a looming short-covering rally, one London dealer said.

"Nobody's happier to go short than someone who's short. I know the text books say that open interest getting very short should be bullish, but I don't believe it," he said.

Gold dropped half a dollar mid-morning in Europe, then recovered, after remarks by Russian Central Bank Deputy Chairman Sergei Aleksashenko that his country was using all instruments to support the rouble, including its gold and other precious metals reserves.

"Gold is an instrument to support the rouble. We are using all the instruments available to us," he said in answer to Reuters questions, giving no further details.

Dealers said the mixed reaction by gold stemmed from market confusion and disagreement over the form any rouble support measures might take.

"This must not be interpreted as central bank gold sales," said Rhona O'Connell, metals analyst for T.Hoare & Co, in a daily commentary.

She said President Yeltsin had pledged to the International Monetary Fund that central bank gold would not be sold and highlighted the deep liquidity in the gold leasing market as evidence that sales were unlikely to be under way.

Implied gold lease rates issued by the London Bullion Markets Association on Monday showed the one-month gold lease rate at 0.42 percent and 12-month gold at 1.41 percent.

"Although sentiment is bound to be hit, and high liquidity also helps to keep prices under some pressure, the statement should not be read as bearishly as it would superficially appear," she said.

One senior London bullion dealer also doubted Russian sales had taken place and relished the current disparities between short- and longer-dated gold rates.

"I can lend my commercial stuff on the long dates and borrow on the short dates at next to nothing. There are certainly a lot of new players around with a lot of gold to lend," he said.

Aleksashenko's remarks hit palladium harder, with dealers reasoning that the metal was more likely to be sold for cash.

Spot palladium, an illiquid market currently trading on a $10.00 spread between bid and offer prices, fell $4.00 after the news to be la

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:38 - ID#289357)
Interesting stuff from Comptroller of the Currency site

Go to the subject index under 'G' and click on GOLD STANDARD - this takes you ( I find this very strange ) to the Quarterly Refunding site

and the following is a chart of net foreign holding of US debt, and below it, a bar chart of changes:

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:40 - ID#289357)
Note on the Foreign Debt Holdings Chart just posted

That the shape of the curve mirrors the US stock market almost exactly.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:44 - ID#229207)
You may be right about Toys-R-Us making excuses for bad management, but in the context of other deflationary forces and the rapid rate of their decline in sales, not profits, suggests a more global source.

Y2K will also be the all-purpose excuse, the El Nino of bad management of IT expenses in the future.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:45 - ID#147201)
mozel re 11:46
In all the discussion re Euro for months, I have not seen any reference to convertability. The US has a reserve without any convertable access. For my clarification, what is the difference between the US and the Euro? Thanx for this help, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:51 - ID#153102)
To whom do they report purchases ? Their MaMa ? On what do they report purchases ? TP ?
This is fruitless. Can't people read ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:53 - ID#289357)

The only difference I can see between the Euro and USD is that to expand their foreign reserves, the EMU must increase their gold holdings.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:55 - ID#317193)
lady_bug...tis a matter of time. Yes?
The great or bad thing about gold mining shares is the fact that they move so quickly. Getting to the point that you must be patient and wait to buy except for a small hedge portfolio. I think I have over hedged myself but not to bad. Spot to $290ish would be nice. Actually $400 gold would be nicer.: )


(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:55 - ID#269191)
There is no difference between the euro and dollar: both are fiat
money i.e.not convertible. The European Central Bank will maintain
15% of its total reserve assets in gold. This means that the remaining
85% of its reserve assets will be in other fiat currencies: the dollar,
yen etc.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 12:58 - ID#251268)
Our Golden Boy,
Whatsup with that pathetic excuse forgivness from Bill?only when he exhausted every available road of escape and was cornered did he admit to anything.He should ask Monica first for forgivness then Ken Starr for draging him through the mud for the last 7 months ( and still is ) .This episode is probably miniscule compared to what ever unlawful acts Him and His gang of crooks have been up to,sooo my point is I think He and His gang ( yes Hilary too ) are happy for all this hype about him lying and fornicating,its the BEST misdirection prop they could have.Classic Magic,and where is that chump Tony Blair?what a bunch of scripted liars ( howbeit very skilled ) enough this isn't making me feel any better but thanks for leting me vent a little~~~~~~~~

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:00 - ID#25171)
During most of the 1990s , the japanese government instructed public pension fund managers to buy into the collapsing stock market.
Sometimes , with good market timing ( i.e. buying into rallies instead of trying to smooth sell offs ) and a few judicious official comments , they engineered spectacular rallies which can be seen on a NIKKEI chart ( early 1993 was one of their most succesfull achievement with a few spikes of 1000 points ) .
On a long term basis , financial assets converge towards fair value unless they are held by such a few number of people that an agreement can be reached to conceal their value.
The PPT or whomever conspires to support the market ( and it could well be that stupidity might be the main conspirator ) won't have a longlasting effect on the scale of history.
Therefore, who cares? It is indeed sad that gullible investors will suffer the losses but isn't it true that a fool and his money are soon parted.
It is our duty to point out the prevailing mania and it is the duty of these sheep to think that they will outsmart the market.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:00 - ID#410198)
TO ALL CASH REPORTING REQUIRMENTS.....Regulations sec.1.6050 I-1 Returns relating to cash in excess
of $10,000 received in a trade or business.
( 1 ) The term"cash" means the coin and currency of the US or of any other country,which circulate in and are customarily used and accepted as money in the country in which issued.Cash includes US notes and Federal reserve notes,but does not include bank checks,travelers checks,bank drafts,wire transfers or other negotiable or monetary instruments not customarily accepted as money

Internal Revenue Code sec.60501

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:03 - ID#390275)
Governments buying markets.
Allen, I believe that government ownership of so called private markets is named National Socialism.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:03 - ID#269191)
If you go to the World Gold Council web site, they have a synopsis
of the gold policy of the European Central Bank. From what I read
they have not pledged to expand the amount of gold they hold to
maintain the 15% ratio as their reserve assets increase. Reserve assets
could expand in foreign currencies therefore reducing the percentage
of total reserves comprised by gold.

In all probability, if the Euro achieves reserve currency status, the
EEC will run trade deficits. Accordingly, its reserve assets should
decline over time.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:04 - ID#153102)
@Steve_In_To @chas
Dealers report when they purchase from you. Is that a purchase ?

@chas Convertibility ? I think you can convert a Euro into anything that is for sale. Likewise, you can convert a dollar into anything that is for sale. Maybe you mean redeemability. At this stage, neither is gold redeemable.

If you had the gold and redeemability meant some dufus could come in with a wad of paper and get it, would you make the paper redeemable ?
The banks got the gold ON DEPOSIT originally. Think of yourself as a Holocaust Victim unable to get your grandfather's gold deposit back from the bank. Because that is how it is.

The difference between Euro and greenback is that greenback is committed to the proposition gold should not be part of the monetary sytem and Euro has assigned gold a monetary role as a bank reserve.

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:07 - ID#28586)
The "on-the-take" press-corp talking-heads may squawk & flap their prostituted gums as long as they like: they are in a desperate game, along with Clinter, to effect "law" by public opinion.

If true Law still reigns, that is, if we Americans have not descended into a crypto-police state where the law if just window dressing, then Kenneth Starr's report to Congress will rip Clinter several dozen new a**h*les.

To have a video of the Coward Erect sweating, turning red, blustering, twisting words to evade the awful weight of the Truth while Starr patiently snips away his lies ... that would be priceless.

Spud: Impeach the Liar

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:07 - ID#347185)
Are my GF and I the only ones...
Who saw WJC lip-sync that speech last night???

I figured this might be the only place I could find a few
sane ( as I define the word ) people for comment.

Thanks for all the great PM/Financial info.!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:08 - ID#289357)
SEQUIN @ Market Manipulation

A comparison of he Foreign debt holdings chart to a chart of the US market underscores the fact that the runup since 1995 in the US market is not because of a good economy, or because of direct market manipulation.

Rather it is because foreigners ( for whatever reason ...Yen-carry trade etc. ) have ( temporarily ) removed the burden of carrying this treasury paper ...and thereby provided abundant liquidity to the US market.

When this trend reverses, no amount of market manipulation will work to maintain the current market level.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:11 - ID#147201)
DEJ re $ and Euro
Thanx a lot. My thoughts exactly and I can't see much future for either, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:16 - ID#232363)
100 Reasons to Buy Gold WGC

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:17 - ID#373284)
That cuts it...thats it...I just saw a tv ad, American flag waving, all sorts of great
Mom, Dad, Apple pie images,the final screen, the mercedes logo, America, ya'all can have where are those charts...uh huh...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:18 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re your 12:38
I tried them both ( UrLs ) . On the first one, I don't know if it's me or them, but this amount of confusion is tantamount to lying- I guess it comes natural up there. I printed the second for reference. ??? Many thanx for your help, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:19 - ID#147201)
mozel re yours
You're right- I should have used the word "redeemability". Thanx for your help.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:20 - ID#289357)
Thanx for the Euro information - I had assumed otherwise without digging into it.

Where's our buddy SDRer, who has been on top of this stuff from day one?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:20 - ID#153102)
@Cash Transactions @Market Manipulation
A Bank Check is not a Cashier's Check is not a Certified Check is not a Money Order. It's not cash either.

"On a long term basis , financial assets converge towards fair value unless they are held by such a few number of people that an agreement can be reached to conceal their value." Go Gold.

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:28 - ID#28586)
@Clinter's speech...
When Bill said "between me and my god..."

I was wondering: "which god might that be?"

Spud ( was he really lip syncing? )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:31 - ID#298380)
Toys-R-Us problems
One of their main problems stems from an American public boycott.
Approx. one year ago they were exposed for pressuring toy manufactures
to not sell to the discounters. This strategy has obviously backfired.
I personally know some families with children that will not trade there.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:33 - ID#153102)
Apologies. Hope you saw my post of last night.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:35 - ID#373284)
nuff said...........................................................................................
He who is void of virtuous attachments in private life
is, or very soon will be, void of all regard for his
country. There is seldom an instance of a man guilty of
betraying his country, who had not before lost the
feeling of moral obligations in his private
connections. --Samuel Adams

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:37 - ID#242325)
Clinton and the market
Anyone who is bearish because they expected Clinton to be impeached or resign just doesn't get it. Bill Clinton, corrupt as he is, is the best friend big business ever had in the White House. To believe that he would be forced out for anything less than high treason ( high treason to big business that is ) shows extreme naivity.

The market will collapse because it is grossly overvalued, corporate profit growth is slowing, and the current global trend of "US UBER ALLES' is about to reverse. This sucker's rally which looks like it may carry to Dow 8800 or so is a great opportunity to lighten up before the bottom caves in this fall.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:37 - ID#147201)
mozel re last nite post
That old Greek- arthur got hold of me. Can you please note the time and I'll go back. Thanx, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:42 - ID#153102)
Date: Tue Aug 18 1998 04:15
mozel ( @At Knowledge Worthy of the Title Golden ) ID#153102:
A commentary and two comments. The comments first. [Home, Sweet Home will never sound the same eve ...931 more words.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:43 - ID#347235)
Good to see you back up and posting!!!!! Agree with you 1000% if thats possible. Lois leaves for Garmisch on 28 Aug. I will remain here long enough to sell our house, and two vehicles, sent the Cadillac and 800 pounds of fast freight yesterday, only 18,000 pounds to go!!!! Jere
P.S. The computer at home is gone you will have to answer at my work until I go. Love to family . Shalom.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:50 - ID#253153)
Political chaos in Washington to become a reality
With BC admission last night that he had lied to the American people for seven months, a credibility crisis has begun. From now on, as long as BC is the president, his words will be suspect by the congress, the American people, as well as our foreign creditors, allies and foes. Since we are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market, doubts about our intentions and policies world wide will intensify with the American Dollar coming under pressure starting in the Sep time frame. I voted for BC when he ran for president, shame on me.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:51 - ID#237164)
derivatives at banks
JTF: Thanks for finding the>
site. It's very detailed and I can not at this time comprehend what
it means. But I saw an article in Newsweek or Time, about a month
ago on which bank has how much derivative overhang. I posted a few days
ago asking if anyone had seen that article, because I wanted to
re-read it. Has anyone seen the article?

I don't know what I am reading at
but does it mean that the banks have derivatives totaling 26 trillion
dollars? If there is a sudden move in the interest rates, for instance,
does this mean that some large banks, such as the BankAmerica/NationsBank
might be "hung over?"

Someone who can interpret this information, please help us.

Thanks again for the site.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 13:52 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
The Wall Street Journal today reports Fed chair Alan Greenspan
has almost all his money in short-term T-bills. Very little commercial
investment, due to
minimization of possible conflicts of interest. But why not long-term
T-bills???? The
reporter suggested maybe there is something Alan knows that we don't.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:02 - ID#207145)
Market to challenge old highs. Possibly make new high. We must correct a tad and reach a higher high. Then a blow off... Then rates rise. The markets plummet.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:02 - ID#365216)
SAFETREK Outfitters
Has anyone dealt with Safetrek Outfitters who deal with long-term
storage food items and other preparedness items? Are their prices
reasonable and service good?

My two cents on Clintler: If he had any smarts, he would work a deal
with Al Whore and resign with the agreement from all prosecutors that
he would be allowed to receive a Presidential Pardon from
Al Bore/Snore to any and all future charges. That would be the deal
of the century since his alledged crimes include murder, drug-running,
treason, you name it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:04 - ID#289357)
Jung @ derivative

Since the derivative markets are ( supposed to be ) zero-sum games, the net exposure of the collective banks should about be even. At least this is the way it is supposed to work.

The biggest problems with derivatives are ( 1 ) nobody really understands the overall-impact of a sudden shock to the system - which may cause localized lack of liquidity on the part of some parties - this could cascade through the system in a domino effect and ( 2 ) as has occurred in Asia, sometimes the party on the other side of a derivative trade just doesn't ( or can't ) pay up - also which could cause a domino effect.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:04 - ID#432148)
JP - God help us all
Don't feel bad, I wouldn't vote for Bush the first time because I couln't read his lips. What a mistake. I thot Clinton was a moderate - hah! I did not of course vote for him either, as I am a Libertarian. So, what did we get? A lier. The liberal media isn't calling him that of course, I see the words denied, etc, but they can't bring themselves to say, we have a lier for president, can they??? And then they wonder why the people have such a low opinion of the media. Reason pure and simple is the media and our educational systems have been taken over by libs ;- (
God help us all. Buy gold and pray! ( See Bart, this did have a gold angle ;- )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:05 - ID#207145)
Blow off top coming
Conventional wisdom again a loser. New highs may be made.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:06 - ID#373284)
Starr report to go well beyond sex, Lewinsky not mentioned in first 400 pages

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:07 - ID#207145)
NEW HIGH WILL BE MADE....then markets will plummet.
Surprise, surprise, surprise....Gomer Pyle.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:07 - ID#289357)
Jung @ derivatives

Also - there is some speculation that perhaps some of the current mergers of big banks to become megabanks is ALREADY due to derivative exposures, and the merger covers it up. Maybe so, maybe no.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:09 - ID#30116)
This is not the end of the 'matter'. WJC essentially admitted to perjury in his 'speech' last night. To compound matters, MS. Lewinski's testimony, then and immunity granted 'now', will catch him in an attempt to 'lie' together to cover this sex thing up. That is called obstruction of justice and maybe conspiracy. One more point, we haven't seen Starr's report yet. Are there more bomb shells? YUP!

The bottom line is this, how can the American public allow a man with so little personal judgement control so much military and political power? No, this is a man with very deep problems. He is not fit for duty, IMO. To quote a line from a Schwartzinager movie, "Resign, or be prosecuted..."

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:09 - ID#342256)
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged

not really a surprise....FOMC sitting tight


Got gold? a little
Go gold? You bet.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:12 - ID#402148)


(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:12 - ID#207145)
Old Gold
This may be a sucker rally. It may also be a new high on the DOW. Of course then it will crash. A blowoff top and NEW HIGH is coming. One more snort left in dying bull.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:13 - ID#33184)
The FED FOMC ends its meeting without changing rates

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:13 - ID#57232)
Starr report -- from World Net Daily -- 500 pages
All: First 400 pages of report is not about Monica, but all-encompassing. However, I suspect that it covers all features of the investigation, not just impeachable offenses. It is hard for me to believe that there is something solid thata would overcome Republican fears of their personal FBI files being exposed.
I'll bet that some Rebublicans will be tempted to do nothing, since WJC is a non-functional Democratic president. I think even without the scandal he would be unable to do anything except get votes, when historically the second term is when most presidents become more statesmanlike. Oddly enough, he has no drive other than the desire for popularity. Good thing for us though -- imagine his political vote-getting skills with Hillary's drive for power -- combined in one person. We were lucky this time.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:13 - ID#432148)
General - How correct you are.
Yes, if we knew the truth ( where has that gone ) we would all be shaking in our boots. The people who voted for this guy will have to pay one horrible price. In due course a few of them will see this, but most will never admit what they brought about. I do not believe we will challenge the old highs, we are in a technical rally ( gee, that sounds familier ) but the top has been reached and look out below. All IMHO, and not advise of any kind. I may well be wrong, as I am still 33% in common stocks ;- )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:16 - ID#207145)
For no reason. Hear me now and believe me later. For no reason we will go to new highs. We then will have a panic crash.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:21 - ID#432148)
Not this time. The end has come. We are in a BEAR MARKET. IMHO of course and not investment advise of any kind. I still think gold will one of these days look very GOLDEN, like a marvelous sunset. ILUA!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:22 - ID#207145)
Compac and intel challanging new highs
After a dip confirmed by a new higher high, the Dow will challenge a new all--time high.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:23 - ID#284255)
Some good links - note the bottom comment

My new web site:

Only asking 1100 ounces of Au.
Cheap and getting cheaper.

BBQ'd prawns and ice chilled beers on the back verandah. ( :- ) ) )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:23 - ID#57232)
Derivatives and Banks
Jung: I'm not completely clear on who has done what with whom. I do know that currency-related derivatives trades alone are in the trillions worldwide. Banks are likely to be big players here.
The amounts are staggering -- but I don't know if the numbers given are actual risk, or monetary value of assets controlled by the derivatives. The leverage on derivatives is often quite high.
Donald: Can you help us out? This website on banking derivative risk may be very useful to you. Unfortunately, it does not give single bank derivative exposure, just total exposure in roughly 20 Trillion or so US$.

As C Everett Dirkson might have said, 'A few trillion here, a few trillion there -- pretty soon you are talking about real money'

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:24 - ID#410198)
Do any of you understand what the THIRD WAY is ?......

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:26 - ID#207145)
Goldbug 23
If you can be positive on gold, you can believe anything, encluding what I'm saying. I know it sounds strange to most everyone. So does a gold rally.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:29 - ID#289357)

Do you think they mean Third Wave?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:30 - ID#207145)
Lest you get the wrong message
I am in 100 5 cash. Neither stocks nor bonds intrest me at all.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:32 - ID#57232)
Logging off
blooper: You lost me -- are the markets going up or not? If we are rushing into September, and we are to reach new highs, or at least test old ones, the markets need to go up fairly soon. I have placed a small bet that the markets are going to rally for 2 weeks to a month. Even a fibonacci-type rebound would cause a rise of about 10% overall. A number of strong stocks have gone up as much as 5% already.

I think the key items are:
1 ) flight to safety from the rest of the world,
2 ) Unchanged FED position,
3 ) Clinton admission of affair.

I don't think WJC will be impeached, and if he is, it will not be until next year. The Republicans get more mileage right now by talking about impeachment rather than doing it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:33 - ID#284255)
You really thinks so???

I don't know - but I can guess I suppose.
Till then we gotta go with the flow.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:34 - ID#410198)
Silverbaron...Third Way..Third Wave as far as I know one and the same thing...your link did not work

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:37 - ID#207145)
JTF----There is no reason
There will be 1 day in the rally of several hundred up points. This will be a traditional blowoff to new highs. I know it does not make sense. Check 29, 87. For no reason except bonds, August is rally month. Then panic sets in. Bonds and stocks will plummet.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:38 - ID#347267)
Cramer on Bear or defensive funds
From the

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:38 - ID#35571)
If the past is any guide, then based on seasonal correlations, your bet is not a bad one.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:39 - ID#207145)
A reverse head and shoulders is forming.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:41 - ID#284255)
We can always watch the swing chart.
I remember after I last called the top and crossover,
You exited some of your long positions.
That worked well with it's cycle.

Now the swing is confirming accumulation for the next up cycle.
Unless something comes out of the blue it should hold.

It will be interesting to see if it can pick the next top with the same accuracy as the last one.
It also picked the top late last year with uncanny accuracy.
All of Avid was bullish when it crossed and turned down.
I had only been using it for a few months before that period.
So far it has picked both major tops with forsight.

I will be going short on that next rollover.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:44 - ID#384350)
Your comment on the counter-party risk on derivatives reminds me of Valentine's ( Eddie Murphy ) line in "Trading Places":

I get it. You guys are couple of bookies.

Like you said, the risks that a certain party like Asian banks can't or won't pay up for their losing side of the bet puts Western Banks ( bookies ) at risk. Many big US banks have substantial derivatives markets exposure, and all this Emerging Country meltdown must be troubling for them.

Russia is just another shoe to fall. This must have an effect on banks desire or ability to make loans, and thus is likely to have adverse effects on global liquidity.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:44 - ID#207145)
I really did not want to post my take on this market
It is not a way to become popular with fellows.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:46 - ID#347185)
Decent catalog -but they started charging for it.

They always used to have pretty high prices -check their premium on gold and silver if you're not familiar with the going prices for their other products. Consider Major Surplus ( pricey ) , Ponderossa Products ( best prices on MREs ) and ....just drew a blank on the name of my favorite...ahh, Emergency Essencials ( food 800-999-1863 ) another good one is Nitro-Pak ( good variety 800-866-4876 ) . Don't forget water.

And yes, I'm positive was mouthing along with pre-recorded sound.

Besides looking like an english translation of a japanese actor he
didn't take a breath the whole time!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:47 - ID#289357)
robnoel @ Third Wave link

Try again - it worked for me just now.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:48 - ID#207145)
September could be a BAD month
Lots of sideline money out there. Look out for extreme volitality.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:50 - ID#375252)
I went short the S&P at 1097. Set the stops for 1102 today. How about yourself.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:50 - ID#207145)
If rates are dropped in December or whenever. Gold will rally.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:53 - ID#34191)
Bonds anyone??????
As we prepare for the crash, is there any shelter in Municipal Bond Funds? I was hoping to let those sit tight. There is a good reason for the market to crash after Jan 1 1999, the IRS. I for one am still in some stocks just because I'm caught between the IRS and a hard place. I'd appreciate your thoughts on Muni bond funds.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:56 - ID#410198)
Silverbaron...Sorry I keep getting URL has moved or no longer exists....I have a bunch of links

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:56 - ID#207145)
Should not be a problem. High yield a problem. Do not take my word for it. Just reply to your question.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:57 - ID#207145)

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:58 - ID#347267)
Bear Funds missinglink@23:44 last eve
Dear 'link :Here's a Previous post:

Re BEARX, Tice also has some Heavy Duty "Blue Chips" short in his fund which IMHO will be the last to crash, and he held all those internet stocks short through their runup. Not faulting his logic, just his timing. BEARX can also be traded without transaction fee with Waterhouse, Schwab and J. White, But if you sell before 90 days, a transaction fee is charged. You should check fee structures if it
matters to you.OTOH, RYURX is the purer play as the inverse to the S&P. All the above Discount Brokers have reasonable fees for purchases/sales in large amounts. I am currently holding both ( BEARX as of today ) . Interesting charts with S&P overlays follow:
@ Bob M re losses in BEARX: ANYONE investing should use money management and cut losses ( sell ) after a ~10% loss in ANYTHING, especially if a market is looking and acting like a bull and the ANYTHING is a bear fund.. No disrespect, just something from someone who has been there, done that.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 14:59 - ID#284255)
Gossip travels faster via email..
Just heard on Chuck Harder from "In the Beltway" that dicky boy had 47 sessions with Monica in the Oval Office and at her apartment.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:01 - ID#384350)
Prechter's Comments on Gold
from online chat Aug 31. The following are 2 questions and the subsequent answer by Prechter:

Bob, I have absolutely no doubt we are about to enter a collapse that might even make "At the Crest of TW " a rosey scenerio. It looks like a Global Depression at minimum. Asia bankruptcy plus Clinton and company losing the control to manipulate the markets. The american currency is worthless but the other currencies are totally worthless. You are in a bar with 800 lb girls and a 300 lb girl walks in she looks good. The US has to declare bankruptcy and start over. The question is : What will be the new currency ( what about gold )

Host BobP says: Exactly. Banks will be swapping currencies like hot potatoes until finally they rediscover gold.

lee says: Gold has been in a bear market for years. Does your comment here ( when the bankers rediscover gold ) mean a bull market for gold in the near future?

Host BobP says: No, not in the NEAR future. The bear market isn't over yet. But when it is, look out....

John Disney__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:03 - ID#24135)
Anything is possible..
To all ..
I would think that a bull market such as this should
really end with a blow off top.
And possibly coincide with some kind of EVENT.
.. maybe an assassination.

gold ..silver ratio is 56 and rising. How long can it
keep going up??

I assume silver must clear 4.80... with gold at 285
we get a ratio of 59 .. and thats possible.

BUT with gold at 255 we'd get a ratio of 53 and
that's possible too.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:06 - ID#374235)
y2k - The Gov is making it worse.,2326,201980817-14429,00.html

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:11 - ID#384350)
Wave count
On the Daily Dow chart I read 5 waves down with a counter "AB and now C" rally. I give this C wave possibly another 100 dow points, resistance at 8800. Tomorrow may be a transition day.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:12 - ID#289357)
Gianni Dioro

Ain't it the truth......and I DO know the names of some banks which have big exposure in this matter, and some of them are in the current merger mania. I just don't want to name them and risk getting sued. Also, I've already tried shorting one of them, and had my head handed to me on a platter. The whole world has gone insane.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:22 - ID#30116)
October crashes...
For whatever reason, most people believe that market crashes happen in the fall, October specifically. Historically the reason used be because of seasonal cash flows in an agrarian economy led to 'tight' money in the fall. That was then, this is now. Personally, I'm looking for some unbelievable numbers on the upside and downside in the same day, like a thousand point move on the Dow Industrials before this is all over...

As an aside, living in left wing central ( Masterchussets ) , it's absolutely hilarious listening to all of the denial, excuse making, and conspiracy theories ( Clinton was setup ) being bandied about on talk radio up here. They just can't accept the fact that their maximum leader is an admitted liar, a fraud, a loser. God only knows what else he did that we don't know about, YET.

FWIW, a liar is always a theif because he steals the truth...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:28 - ID#34191)
Slick can't remember being alone w/ML
So, who else was there? Vernon Jordan?
Oops, GO GOLD!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:34 - ID#230216)
I'm just a simple man......
If the markets are manipulated then either find a way to exploit, go with it, or GET OUT. This is how Facile I like to keep it.

KIFS - keep it Facile stoopid.

away.....back to correcting poor vision ( i make specs )

thanks for correcting my vision Allen...... ;- )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:35 - ID#34191)
@silverbaron on banks
So, lets say I've got some Bank of America Stocks. Their merger was just approved. So, what should I do with them? They were $100 a couple of weeks ago, then $79 Mon. AM and about $84 now. Will they ever see the 100 before the crash?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:35 - ID#384350)
Silverbaron, It could be another Turkey Shoot
Interesting point in the mega-mergers as a defense against derivative exposure. Too big to fail comes into play. Also in fractional reserve banking, a bank can get screwed if lots of people take their money out of one bank and deposit in the bank across the street. Now, if the bank in question also owns the bank across the street, no problem. If the economy sinks into a global depression, many banks would fail. The govt would likely bail out the big ones with loans ( printing money ) . That is also why we could be seeing these megamergers. Also financials tend to peak late in the business cycle.

Somebody mentioned last night that we all should take our money out of the banks and buy gold so as to teach the banks a lesson. While we're at it, we might as well screw the insurance companies as well by not buying insurance for a few years. That would force them to liquidate their portfolios, but only if everyone everywhere did it. And I don't think most people want to go without insurance, so I'm not advocating it. It's just an example of how insurance companies buy up lots of stuff with policyholders money ( premiums ) .

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:39 - ID#280214)
I assume Mozel is just misguided in his priorities.
Since he professes that those who have only a few ounces of Gold are not worthy of this forum. Even worse, in his apparent opinion are those who hoard food at the expense of buying more Gold.

24K - if you are seriously interested.
Store what you eat, and eat what you store {to rotate the stock}
If you dont eat dried beans - dont store em.

Check out sharefins page at:

Check this one for both supplies AND links to a lot of info

And download ALL the files from

There has been posted on this forum over the past few months hundreds of links to various preparedness and survival sites.
Just do a search or find in page Sharefinr or my posts.
But limiting it to us two does injustice to the many other contributors who have posted advice here and links as well.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:39 - ID#207145)
John Disney
Stars report . That will be the event that starts the avalanchenear 3 September. It will be unnerving to populace.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:39 - ID#290287)
Steve in TO re film
Yep. But not sure if I agree that pros burn up more film than amateurs. Both groups consume a significant amount of silver and are likely to do so for the near future. I'll even go so far as to make a prediction. In the farther out future, rising standards of living around the world will create millions of new consumers of refrigerators, telephone service, and Kodak or Fuji Advantix camera. And if the electricity to run a refrig isn't available yet they'll get the telephone and canera first. I have heard over and over, if there was a fire in the house I would grab the cat and the photo albums. Yup, that's what I think.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:41 - ID#31876)
I Figured Jude Would Have Something to Say Today About Clinton. He Did.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:42 - ID#347267)
Us got to hurries up, Bloop!
Or is that hush up??
Ketchin up wif me readin:

blooper ( We will have a rally followed by a decline, followed by a higher rally. )
Then ....LIFTOFF for the BLOWOFF

blooper ( Maybe just a rally to 3rd of September ) ID#207145:
4th quarter growth very strong. Rising rates are in the cards later.
Lets see now, we have to squeeze a rally, a decline, a higher rally then a liftoff for a
blowoff into TWELVE TRADING DAYS!!! Or do we ignore that and rally into Sept. 3rd?? Which is it? Even I am getting confused. Say Bloob, howze 'bout we ju waitnsee an
not talk bout it till then; after all it is only 2 weeks!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:45 - ID#207145)
Star has clintons number
Star is wearing him out. Kickingb clintons but real good. Star might get the Vince Foster treatment. Clinton believes he could get away with it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:48 - ID#246224)
Trade it or get out, indeedy-O. We don't care because we have no concern about corruption and foul play anymore. Our only concern is 'is it tradable?'. Tobacco sold to kids? Is it tradable? Bonds based on air. Is it profitable? Dial-a-death. Is it gonna make me a few bucks so I can retire early?

Where did we lose America recently? Or have we just rotted slowly enough that we don't notice the strench anymore?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:48 - ID#207145)
Mtn Bear
16 days in a volatile market is a long time. Why dont you shut up and see what happens.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:48 - ID#35087)
Today's prediction
Well, since we don't have GC here today to give the play-by-play on the DOW's finish...

Here's my prediction for today: DOW up 150 points or so.
This, with 6 minutes of trading left.

Did pretty good yesterday, huh? only off by 10 points. ( snicker )


MG ( I calls 'em as I sees 'em! Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:51 - ID#207145)
Mtn Bear
Have you something to add. An idea maybe? Or just baby talk.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:52 - ID#289357)

If I new the future, I probably wouldn't be passing my time on the forum, so no - I don't know whether your bank will go back to that level.

II will say that in general, I'm not interested in banks in this risky climate - especially the ones which may have big exposure to Asia. They may be too large for the government to let fail, but I think you could take a big hit in some of them anyway.

BTW - go GOLD!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:53 - ID#288186)
Comex Metal Warehouse Totals. Silver up, Gold down...
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 18

Gold 1,033,276 - 50,855 troy ounces
Silver 78,220,995 + 559,274 troy ounces
Copper 57,997 + 0 short tons

I'll post the eligibles vs. registered shortly...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:53 - ID#31876)
Russians Don't Trust Their Banks. They Want Them to Close!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:55 - ID#288186)
Comex Gold eligibles vs. registered...
980,761 0 50,211 -50,211 0 930,550
103,370 0 644 -644 0 102,726
1,084,131 0 50,855 -50,855 0 1,033,276

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:56 - ID#433143)
At the height of Watergate in the summer of 1974, during Bill Clinton's race to become a U.S. Representative from Arkansas, Clinton once
declared: "If a President of the United States ever lied to the American people he should resign." Source, Matt Drudge.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 15:58 - ID#207145)
A blow off could take place in a week. all the way to 10,000
This bull is in a class ot its own. It has one dying snort left. It will goer the matador.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:00 - ID#410194)
Back to October 1997 again?
Looks like GC has been absent this afternoon so how about a re-run?

The content of the following message is very familiar, the only differences are: the Dow picked up 2000 points ( ! ) thereafter and Gold dropped $40.

The dipsters in the Dow did wonderfully well.

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 15:40
Entschuldigen Sie mich meine Kitco Freunde! I promise not to abuse the caps button ever again! But I feel a tremendous obligation to warn any dipsters still out there about the conflagration of paper which is just beginning! Please understand, I'm not saying we've reached the end of western civilization, but for those who think this is just a short term hiccup in an ongoing bull market IT ISN"T! This mess will take months and years to correct! That's why the ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT NOW IS GOLD!!! ( Heilige! There I go again! ) PACK BY 10

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:00 - ID#433143)
yeah or maybe Starr will take a plane flight and end up like Mr. Brown ( not talking about resivor dogs either ) . Or he may be eating in a nice italian resturant, and some goons will come in and shoot up the place like in a old ganster movie. I wouldnt like to be part of an independent counsel...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:01 - ID#207145)
G- Nuts
That was a great post. Lets see it on CNN now.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:05 - ID#207145)
I know that's right. Star is sticking it to Clinton. No one has ever gotten away with that before. Clintons temper will do him in. He is a nutcase.

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:08 - ID#212323)
An unnatural act. How long will we carry this bull?? A parable, and more...

And another thing...
I was not born a dog. At least I have yet to be corrected on this assumption. Therfore, as a member of the human brand of species I retain the right to yield any and all notions of self-determination, to accept elected officials as LEADERS rather than mearly REPRESENTatives, and to accept as payment and measure-of-wealth whatever they choose for me to use. I am happy to assist them in using their system of accounting to full advantage in serving their self interests over my own. I am happy that my existence is tolerated, when I know full-well that my space could be used more productively by somebody else. I am content to live out my span of years with no contemplation on the uniqueness of my being...a brief and negligible irritant in an otherwise vast and fascinating Universe spanning infinate time and distance. I am undeserving of my very life, and am therefore content to let those who are more worthy direct the terms of my existence. It is nice to look up at the stars and hold the paper which signifies all of your life's struggles.

But then...sometimes self awareness can be a fine thing, too, on a dark and starry night. And that trace element, immutable gold, feels good in the a kindred spirit everlasting, your paths briefly uniting on this journey through the dimly lit and unending cosmos. Sometimes...

got gold?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:09 - ID#207145)
The people will defect to Star one by one till it's an avalanche. Clinton is slowly showing his ass, and his real self. It is not a pretty picture.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:09 - ID#251166)
Thought ya'll would find this interesting
Excerpts of Editorials on Clinton

By The Associated Press

Excerpts from newspaper editorials on
President Clinton's address to the nation
about his relationship with Monica


The Honolulu Advertiser:

Yesterday was not a good day for
President Clinton, or for America.

It was a day of personal humiliation for
him, of diminution of his office, and a
deepening of a perilous national paralysis.

After months of denial, Clinton confirmed
what we all knew, that he had engaged in
an improper relationship with a White
House intern.

Then, looking us squarely in the eye, he
told us last night a story altogether
different from the one he told us seven
months ago, when he also squarely looked
us in the eye.

The new story, however, leaves enough
loose ends that we beg: For subsequent
revisions, please, Mr. President, no more
eye contact.


Houston Chronicle:

We hope that the president's testimony
signals a denouement to Independent
Counsel Kenneth Starr's investigation and
that when he submits his report to
Congress, the American people finally will
be able to separate the facts from the
speculation that will not go away. But
even that remains in doubt with reports
that the president was not specific enough
in his testimony and might be subpoenaed
or questioned again.

Meanwhile, we are left with the
presidential confession, the sad collection
of details and leaks and the spin game that
whirls on all sides.

To many of Clinton's political detractors
it's an I-told-you-so affirmation that the
man is immoral and not fit to hold office.

To many of his supporters, it's an
it-doesn't-really-matter confirmation that
conspirators are desperate to discredit him
and are imposing an unfair standard upon
the president's personal life and foibles.

For the nation, it's a sort of Super Bowl of
sordidness, complete with off-color
analysis, play-by-play commentary and
endless -- endless -- on-the-field mayhem.


Charleston ( W.Va. ) Daily Mail:

President Clinton has told the American
people too little too late. Months of lying,
of stonewalling, of trying to shift the blame
and of spinning the truth have damaged
his credibility beyond repair.

In a ghastly four-minute session, the
president told the nation no more than he
had to. It was a calculated, carefully
calibrated effort at damage control.

In was a hell of a comedown from a
fireside chat with FDR.


The Tribune, suburban Phoenix:

In more ways than one, Bill Clinton is a
master of seduction. But after one of the
most extraordinary days in the history of
the American Presidency, it would appear
his dalliances and deceptions have finally
caught up with him.

Clinton's televised appeal to a seemingly
forgiving American public
notwithstanding, he faces a torturous legal
road. Among a litany of damning points,
Kenneth Starr's report to Congress almost
certainly will include a finding that the
president not only lied about his
relationship with Monica Lewinsky, but
that he tried to persuade her to lie as well.

These are impeachable offenses.

They are also breaches of the public trust.

Spare us further insults to our intelligence
and to our dignity from the legal
maneuvering, semantic gymnastics and
televised appeals. The seduction has gone
on long enough.

Muster a shred of honor, Mr. Clinton, and
vacate our hallowed White House.


Austin ( Texas ) American-Statesman:

President Clinton's shake-and-bake
apology to the American people last night
fell far short of what the country deserved
after a truly sordid day in U.S. history. ...

True to form, Clinton offered a quick,
weak apology for a critical lapse of
judgment in having the affair and
misleading the public then attacked
Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr for
going to far and hurting `too many
innocent people.' But Mr. President, who
is to blame for that?

Unfortunately, Clinton fell back on a legal
point to defend his lies and placed the
blame for his predicament elsewhere. That
won't endear him to anyone. The country
Clinton leads deserves better than the
superficial finger-pointing performance he
delivered Monday night.


Helena ( Mont. ) Independent Record:

OK. So President Bill Clinton has changed
his tune, admitting an improper sexual
relationship with a White House intern
less than half his age, but denying any
obstruction of justice or other

Big deal. In a sense, it doesn't really matter
what if anything President Clinton has to
say on the subject of Monica Lewinsky.
When it comes to Clinton and women,
most of us already have made up our
mind, and by now the president's
protestations are about the last thing to
change it. ...

Whatever happens in the end, Clinton will
be remembered as a president lucky
enough to have served during prosperous
economic times, a president whose
progressive policies were increasingly
undermined as much by his move to the
center and beyond as by his declining
credibility, and a president who shamed
his wife and daughter and his party and
the people of the United States by his
mind-bendingly reckless inability to keep
it in his pants.


The Des Moines ( Iowa ) Register:

It is almost beyond comprehension that
Clinton is so lacking in self-discipline, so
reckless, that he engaged in a sordid
liaison with a youthful intern under the
same roof with his own family, at a time he
was under scrutiny for alleged sexual

Yet the public was fully aware of Clinton's
reputation and twice elected him
president. It is not Clinton's character
alone that brought about this sorry
moment. Other factors are the president's
tenacious enemies and an overreaching
independent counsel.

It should never have some to this -- but it

Now Clinton asks the country to move on.

That may not be as easy as he would like.


Chicago Sun-Times:

Many husbands stray and cover up
without having to account for themselves
in public. Most people find it
understandable, even forgivable, to lie
about sex. Many would allow Clinton the
same latitude. But a president who strays
and denies the truth, under oath and in
hurt tones addressed to a nationwide
television audience, should be judged by
a different standard. This may not be
Watergate but it is no mere peccadillo. ...

An early confession, no matter how grim,
would have been better than the pathetic
backtracking extracted Monday. He has
only embarrassed those closest to him,
disappointed friends and brought critics
to new depths of disgust.


Detroit Free Press:

Beyond the breach of trust, the man's lack
of judgment is frightening. Even if you are
inclined to forgive, it will be impossible to
forget. This presidency is effectively over.

The legacy Clinton was pursuing in such
important areas as education and race
relations will be forever tarnished by a sex
scandal. His mantra of taking ``personal
responsibility'' rings hollow.

He has let the whole country down.

Whether or not Clinton got your vote in
his two campaigns for president, whether
or not he is of your party or your political
ideology, if you are an American, he is
your leader. You are entitled to demand a
lot from the person in such a job. ...

Clinton would like the country to move
quickly beyond this tawdry episode,
enjoy the booming economy, and prepare
for the next century. The country probably
will, but without its president in any
meaningful role.

AP-NY-08-18-98 1558EDT

Copyright  Associated Press. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast,
rewritten, or redistributed.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:10 - ID#288186)
Comex Silver registered vs. eligible... Special note at bottom!
40,181,321 0 0 0 1,230,326 41,411,647
37,480,400 559,274 0 559,274 -1,230,326 36,809,348
77,661,721 559,274 0 559,274 0 78,220,995
559k added to eligibles, but look closely... there was 1.2 million
oz's transfered from eligibles to registered! This occurred at the
Republic National Depository ( in New York ) . The net result? There
are now 671,052 oz's LESS in total eligible stocks!!
Now it appears to me that some source has laid claim to 1.2 million
oz's of Silver, but has not taken delivery yet. They have moved it
to registered stocks, maybe for future delivery? Or! They wanted to
claim Silver now ( for future industrial use, or whatever ) because they
fear there won't be any eligible Silver in the near future to purchase!
Hmmmmmm. Any comments? Foxman

Gold Dancer
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:10 - ID#430221)
Steve in To_A
It is true that in the last great depression that the Fed tried
to inflate the money supply and could not do it. That is because
the only mechanism they had was thru the banking system. And since we
have debt money and no one wanted to borrow.....but no one wanted to
spend what they had either. After all, if prices are going down you
wait, right?

Look at posters on this site. Some are waiting for gold to bottom.
Some are waiting for stocks to bottom. It's natural human behavior.

But now the Fed has another method at it's disposal. Thru the
PPT it can buy any asset it wants. Where does it get the money? From
the Fed which buys debt securities and instead of putting the proceeds into the banks in hopes of them making a loan it can now put the
money directly into the money supply. Alan Greenspan said so in his
testimony. The Fed does not manipulate it takes a position which
it is willing to hold for a long time.

What the seller does with the money they determins what
effect this has on the economy. But the fact that the Fed can do this
should alert people to the falling value of the dollar which could
and I think will cause them to transfer that stock money into real
goods sooner than they might have done so.

In the 1920's and 1930's we were under a gold standard and people
believed that dollar would hold its value. But I don't think that
they will believe that this time. Tice is a smart man but I think
he has overlooked this one aspect.

Time will tell what happens, but I think we are headed for stagflation.
Maybe worse.

As Ed Hart would say "we will know in the fullness of time."

Thanks, GD

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:13 - ID#287223)
Market Volatility Index
OLD GOLD: For the Market Volatility Index, enter ^VIX at Yahoo Finance. Just noticed that it's down 2.29% at 28.79 ( though DOW climbed 139 ) .Charts available also. "Volatility"?

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:13 - ID#35087)
That's why I prefer to do my guessing on the markets in no more
than 10 minute increments. I've eaten enough crow.
( and I'm 10 points off again today! Dang! DOW up 139 )

Seriously though, I appreciate it when you post this stuff from Puetz
and GC. It serves to show all of us that the markets are not easily
understood - there are always factors we haven't taken into account.

But I also hope that GC & Puetz keep posting, since I'd hate to see
anyone chased away by bad calls. We've all made 'em. Maybe not
so STRENUOUSLY, and FREQUENTLY, but nobody's perfect.
( Plus, if they went away, YOU wouldn't have any material a year from now! )

Anyway, regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:13 - ID#35087)
That's why I prefer to do my guessing on the markets in no more
than 10 minute increments. I've eaten enough crow.
( and I'm 10 points off again today! Dang! DOW up 139 )

Seriously though, I appreciate it when you post this stuff from Puetz
and GC. It serves to show all of us that the markets are not easily
understood - there are always factors we haven't taken into account.

But I also hope that GC & Puetz keep posting, since I'd hate to see
anyone chased away by bad calls. We've all made 'em. Maybe not
so STRENUOUSLY, and FREQUENTLY, but nobody's perfect.
( Plus, if they went away, YOU wouldn't have any material a year from now! )

Anyway, regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:15 - ID#287312)
blooper / Never seen so many
firm predictions in one day.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:15 - ID#218211)
Elliot Wave Reminder: A .382 of the decline is at the 8716 area.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:19 - ID#410194)
@Mountain Goat
Totally agree with you... nobody should be chased away.

There is something to learn from those "reality checks" for all of us.

A few "visits" back into the past can be a very rewarding and learning experience. It also helps us to notice the evolution of some contributors an also how some others keep running around the same circle ad infinitum.

Markets change and evolve very quickly and they always have the final word on our predictions and actions. Let's try to learn to cope with it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:20 - ID#207145)
You don't do anything but criticize. I put my ass on the line. ( Probably foolishly ) . But I enjoy speaking up. Unlike you.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:22 - ID#43349)
But blooper, you put your ass on so MANY different lines.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:23 - ID#207145)
What if somebody nails it on the head? What then?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:24 - ID#253153)
Gold is refusing to confirm the Aug 14 low's on the XAU
For the second day in a row, gold closed at $285 and the XAU at 60.67. With a Dow rally of 140 points ,gold had all the reasons in the world to make new low's, but it did not. From a technical point of view, gold is displaying strength and the XAU is bottoming . Since we are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market, I suspect that this is the bottom in gold, but we need a few more days of gold strength just to be sure. As for the Dow rally, we may rally a bit higher, but in Sep I expect a big Dow decline. If this is the ultimate gold bottom, a gradual slow upward move should start now.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:24 - ID#31876)
Kudos for your 16:09!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:25 - ID#43349)
Here. Here's your own little scorecard.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:25 - ID#207145)
True. I'm having too much fun.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:26 - ID#35087)
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"

Not trying to start a food fight!
Or become embroiled in one!

Just adding my 2 cents. ( valued in 1933 dollars )

MG ( Go Gold! Down with food fights! )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:27 - ID#207145)
What are you thinking. You post more and I'll post less.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:28 - ID#207145)
Mountain Goat
When are you right?

Steve in TO__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:28 - ID#209265)
Mozel & Robnoel - Thanks for clarifying what "cash" is
I guess that's not he same as "currency" either.

When a dealer buys gold from you in the US, does he only have to report the transaction if he pays you in cash? If you get a check from him is that not reportable?

- Steve

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:28 - ID#273432)

If you happen to own one of the big bank stocks and want to hold it - one thing you can do to protect yourself is to buy an out-of-the-money put for, say, December at a low strike - something like 75% of the current price.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:30 - ID#35087)
Sometime this century, I hope. C'mon gold!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:30 - ID#264289)
Sharefin and Squirrel
Thanks for the y2k preparedness links and your time. Squirrel: I think that even though you don't have enough gold to satisfy Mr. Mozel, what you do have stored may very well be as good as gold at some time in the near future. I think the appropriate sign off is "Keep your nuts dry" ( or something like that ) .

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:32 - ID#207145)
Mountain Goat
I know you're OK. I'm not mad. I do need to give it a rest. I'll let you guys carry on for awhile.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:37 - ID#207145)
Sorry. You were right.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:37 - ID#287340)
New market highs?
Yesterday morning I said we were begining a tradable rally. I caught the down move almost perfectly ( a rarity because I'm always long the PM's ) but I feel this market is so dangerous that I'm afraid to go long.

However there are a lot of reasons to believe this rally could go to new highs. 1 ) ClitTongue survival depends on the stock market going up. 2 ) Goldman RUBIN is going public this fall although they haven't announced a date. 3 ) The Nasdaq and S&P 500 didn't cross the 200 day moving average. The S&P bounced off the 200 day average like a rocket. 4 ) The dollar chart looks like its making a major breakout to the upside ( hard to believe ) . 5 ) The TBond chart is nearing a breakout. 6 ) VIX is still showing a lot of fear.

If we do get new highs the market is making a megaphone chart formation which is one of the most bearish. If we make a new high the down move is going to be scary.

Got GOLD!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:37 - ID#288186)
COMEX SILVER ELIGIBLES... This is worth a second post! (imho)
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
40,181,321 0 0 0 1,230,326 41,411,647
37,480,400 559,274 0 559,274 -1,230,326 36,809,348
77,661,721 559,274 0 559,274 0 78,220,995
559k added to eligibles, but look closely... there was 1.2 million
oz's transfered from eligibles to registered! This occurred at the
Republic National Depository ( in New York ) . The net result? There
are now 671,052 oz's LESS in total eligible stocks!!
Now it appears to me that some source has laid claim to 1.2 million
oz's of Silver, but has not taken delivery yet. They have moved it
to registered stocks, maybe for future delivery? Or! They wanted to
claim Silver now ( for future industrial use, or whatever ) because they fear there won't be any eligible Silver in the near future to purchase!
Hmmmmmm. Any comments? Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:37 - ID#264289)
Cash reporting
Steve in T_O: 1 ) Since Maple Leafs have a face value of $50, does that mean that you only have to report transactions when one buys over 200 of them? : ) One could make the case that the currency value of the Maple Leaf is only $50 while the commodity value makes up the rest. And since the legislation is meant to curtail money laundering and not commodity laundering. : )

And: 2 ) If the Canadian dollar is only 65 cents US, how come we Canucks are discriminated against by having to report transactions over $6500 US when the Americans get the full $10K to work with?

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:38 - ID#28586)
@FOXMAN re. COMEX eligible gold...
Wow, just 50,000 ounces of ELGIBILE gold left after somebody took
delivery of 50,000 today?!

What am I missing here? One more wack of 50,000 and there is NO
eligble gold left? Shouldn't we see some of that registered gold move
over into eligible? What next? Apocalypse Now?


(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:41 - ID#31876)
Worth a Daily Look-In

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:47 - ID#273432)
Spud Master

Naw - the 50K came out of registered stocks, same as they did last week.

Either COMEX is playing musical chairs with the numbers to maintain the 10% elligible stocks, or somebody is playing the cross-the-pond boogie and getting their ( registered ) gold out of town pronto.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:48 - ID#43349)
Season's greetings
Does anyone know what the seasonal demand for gold and silver looks like? It seems to me that as the COMEX stocks go drifting down we are getting closer to the time when the producers of jewlery and photographic film, et al, are going to be wanting to stock up on supplies for the Thanksgiving/Christmas season.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:49 - ID#25171)
Also it is true that if a counterpart is long some futures , another is short it , it would be misleading to think that the derivative community represents a zero sum game.
Take for exemple a speculator who thinks the us / dem rate is going higher. He will buy, from a market maker most of the time , a call option.
Say the usd/dem is at 1.80 and he buys a 1 month call strike 1.82 for a premium of 100 mark pips or a pfenig. The market maker , to hedge his position , will buy a certain amount of USD / DEM spot to cover his exposure to market direction. ( say if the speculator bought 100 million dollars of underlying amount and the delta of the call is 25 % , he will buy 25 million USD/DEM ( it is called the delta of the option ) . And every day , at the end of the day , he will adjust his USD/ DEM exposure to the the new delta. Thus , it is possible for both of them to make money eventually as if the option expires more than one pfenig in the money and the directional player is in the blak P/L wise , the market maker got the premium plus the profit on his long $ position.
Derivatives books are complex to manage but the actual underlying amount that they represent is much greater than the risk associated. Moreover , their is no chinese wall between derivatives and theyr underlying .
I manage a 500 billion derivative book but my risk overnight is rarely above 30 million dollars for a 20 % move in my underlying market.
Thus you can say that the greater the derivatives portfolio are , the more risk there is but you can't guess what that risk is as you would have to know the risk profile and the management technique of each player.
However , the big risk that one can identify is the counterpart risk.
As I explained friday , Russian banks have been selling billions of ruble options which are going to lose hundred of millions of $ and they ain't gonna pay. Same for KOREAN banks and indonesian banks which have tremendous currency and rate derivative portfolio on which they have already defaulted.
As option trading for big banks , is a spreading business , they will have to honor they loosing side of the arb but they won 't get paid which leaves us with a systemic risk.
As long as bank overall profits are big enough to absorb it you won't know the extent of the losses but banks are loosing now so much money on their sovereign and corporate exposure that it is not going to last that much longer.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:49 - ID#288186)
Spud Master; I wish it was that way, but no. The 50,211 oz's of Gold were
removed from registered stocks. Only 644 oz's were removed from
eligible stocks. But! Total eligible Gold is down to 102,726 oz's!
That means it would only cost a little over 29 million dollars to
buy all the eligible Gold in the Comex depositorys! ( That's at a spot
price of 285.00 ) Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:51 - ID#25171)
sorry lots of mistakes but was in a hurry

(Tue Aug 18 1998 16:55 - ID#288186)
SEQUIN; Good post. It seems I'm learning more and more about derivatives
and Bank exposure. Thanks for the education and don't worry about
the mistakes...Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:01 - ID#273432)

You say that the derivatives market isn't always a zero-sum your example of the spec and the market maker both in winning trades, there must be some schmuck somewhere who's on the hook for an equal amount of money. How could it be otherwise? Whether the schmuck pays, of course, is another matter.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:05 - ID#287340)
New market highs #2
Another reason to expect new highs is the continued strength in internet
stocks. For example Yahoo closed today within 1 point of all time highs. The internet stocks are currently the stock market leaders. They represent the complete divorce rationality that drives this market. They have to break before this bull market is over. If they start making new highs the bull still has one more snort left.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:05 - ID#410198)
Steve in TO...when I buy product whether cash or check I have to get name and address....just for
record keeping purpose...same law as pawn shops....

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:06 - ID#212323)
Steve in TO
Cash reporting requirements...when using a check as a means to transfer dollars from one party to another, a Cash Transaction Report is not required, and indeed is REDUNDANT, because the check itself acts as the paper trail when it passes through the Fed's check clearinghouse.

got tracking?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:07 - ID#25171)
The looser in my case will be the spot trader who is short the amount of dollars that the market maker has bought to hedge his book .But as it is unlikely that the spot trader will be a derivative player ( most likely it will be a bank or a corporate hedging future cash flows and these positions are not static but passed over many times a day ) , then you see that the profits and losses of the derivative business spill over to plain vanilla underlying business.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:08 - ID#431200)

Millionaire daredevil Steve Fossett said he just knew he was about to die as his crippled hot-air balloon plunged into storm-ravaged, shark-infested waters in the South Pacific.

"I was very surprised I lived through it. I thought it would kill me," a jubilant Fossett said after his dramatic rescue 500 miles off the east coast of Australia.

Rescuers plucked the Chicago adventurer from the ocean after he completed two-thirds of his planned trip around the world in a hot-air balloon.

Fossett said his balloon got into trouble when it was pulled into a hail and lightning storm, and strong winds ruptured its Mylar skin, making it plunge 29,000 feet, or about 5 miles, into the sea.

"There was a line of thunderstorms and I thought I had sufficient altitude to go over the top, but I got drawn down into one," Fossett said.

"There were tremendous sheets of hail just flooding me."

Fossett said the balloon capsule caught fire when it hit the water, and he was forced to climb into a small raft.

He also thought he could become shark bait at any second because the area is filled with man-eaters.

The rescue yacht Atlanta yesterday handed Fossett over to the New Zealand navy tanker Endeavour, which was to drop him off in Queensland, Australia.

Fossett's balloon, Solo Spirit, took off from Mendoza, Argentina, on Aug. 7.

It was traveling toward its final destination in South America when contact was lost, said Alan Blount, director of mission control for the journey.

Blount, an experienced balloon pilot, said the descent described by Fossett would amount to dropping at a rate of almost 45 mph.

"He is fortunate. There are not too many of us around that have been in a storm like that," Blount said.

The craft, which was 150 feet tall and 80 feet wide, was equipped with an emergency locator beacon that sounded twice Sunday.

A French military plane, homing in on the beacon, dropped a larger life raft to Fossett after reaching the downed balloon near the Chesterfield Islands.

The plane circled Fossett until its fuel ran low, then headed back to its base in New Caledonia.

The 60-foot Atlanta, skippered by Australian Laurie Piper, had been on its own trip around the world when it was alerted by a ham radio operator that Fossett was down in the area.

Fossett was making his fourth attempt to fly around the world. He has also run marathons, climbed mountains and raced in the Iditarod dog sled race in Alaska.

His first around-the-world balloon attempt, in 1996, lasted only 36 hours, ending up in eastern Canada.

His next try, in January 1997, set a long-distance balloon record - which he surpassed on this trip - and ended in Sultanpar, India, where he landed after running short of fuel while awaiting clearance to fly over Libya.

In January, on his third effort, Fossett landed in a wheat field in southern Russia.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:11 - ID#257344)
eligible stocks
FOXMAN and all - these low eligible comex stocks are going to fuel a powerful rally when the shorts try to cover! Keep up vigil!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:11 - ID#273432)

I think we are on the same wavelength - more a matter of semantics. When I say derivatives are zero-sum, I'm thinking in a global way. Apparently you are speaking more of people in the derivatives business. Yes?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:12 - ID#252391)
Metals going nowhere / stocks rally
The fact that the metals have not broken down to new contract lows given their bearish technical pictures is about the only positive thing that can be said for them. "They are not going down so they will go up"??? Odd logic. Trends are down.

Clinton relief rally to take DOW to new highs?? DOW 10,000 before Gold $315?? Lets get a 50% retracement rally first. I like 1130 as the short side entry point on the S&P 500.

Artilce several hours back discusses that the Startt Report will be 500 pages plus and cover a wide variety of subjects. There will be more that CLinton is guilty of and that will drop the market.

To APH, I'm paying attention - stopped out again, were you. Sorry, the silver bird just won't fly.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:20 - ID#25171)
@ Silverbaron
I was speaking as you said about derivative traders.
However , if you consider the market place , we don't have a zero sum game unless I am mistaken.
Take the equity business or the bond business : when equities or bonds go up the global wealth increases.
When the $ goes up against foreign currencies , all non domestic holders of $ make money. I know that there will be some long and shorts but as the stocks , bonds ... exist , the global marketplace gets richer or poorer.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:20 - ID#287358)
Bill, did you say, "Between me and my God," or did you say," Between
you and me... and... oh, my God"?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:21 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.58. The 144 day moving average is 29.62. The calculations tonight are based upon prices of $285.00 and $5.08 from the Monex site.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:26 - ID#31876)
I am commiserating. Are you saying that the derivative players
have put the worldwide bankers into huge losses now that Russia
has gone belly-up?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:26 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .213. The 144 day moving average is .252. There have been 14 occasions where the XAU closed in the 60.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #11. There is no change in the #1 ranking posted last night.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:27 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.10. The 144 day moving average is 50.95

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:28 - ID#242325)
Thanks for the VIX info!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:31 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages.
Spot gold $296.68; spot silver $5.87; XAU 74.87

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:33 - ID#242325)
Why do you expect new highs? A hunch. A crystal ball. Inside knowledge of PPT actions. Or some esoteric technical theory

Does anyone else here agree thay new highs are coming soon?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:33 - ID#26793)
The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages.
Spot gold $300.20; spot silver $5.65; XAU 78.13; Dow/Gold Ratio 28.12

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:36 - ID#252391)
Can anybody tell me how this is calculated, upon what is it calculated. I understand that at 35 it says everybody is nervous and thinks the market is going to crash while at 16, for example, clear sailing is seen ahead and the market general goes down.

What is the basis of the calculation.?


Sound like the good news is really starting to rollout of CNBC

Dow 10,000 before Gold 315

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:39 - ID#25171)
But keep in mind that this far , in spite of a few accidents , the derivative business has been profitable for banks.
Equity derivatives have never made as much money for the banking community as these year.
Either you are in derivatives or you are out. And there are less and less people out but more and more people who can't control their books.
Big surprises comming .

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:43 - ID#287340)
@jims Re: VIX calculation
VIX is the average of the volitility of the 2 puts and calls which are closest to the money on the OEX. Volitility of an option is a calculation which represents a prediction for the percentage move of the underlying market.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:43 - ID#237164)
@ blooper
I don't mean to discourage your postings ... but can you explain
why you believe what you say?

Just a little bit of 'why' would make it a prediction, rather than
speculation; reason rather than guess. Of course not all reasoned
predictions come true, yet it is considered rational, rather than
a speculative guess.

So, why yet another higher high?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:49 - ID#359316)
The past speaks to us of manias, blowoffs, intervention, and crashes
The headlong fool that wants to be a swopper
Of gold and silver coin for English copper,
May, in Change Alley, prove himself an ass,
And give rich metal for adulterate brass.
( Epigram on South Sea playing-cards nine of hearts )

On the 29th of May, the stock had risen as high as five
hundred, and about two-thirds of the government annuitants had
exchanged the securities of the state for those of the South Sea
Company. During the whole of the month of May the stock continued to
rise, and on the 28th it was quoted at five hundred and fifty. In four
days after this it took a prodigious leap, rising suddenly from five
hundred and fifty to eight hundred and ninety. It was now the general
opinion that the stock could rise no higher, and many persons took
that opportunity of selling out, with a view of realising their
profits. Many noblemen and persons in the train of the King, and about
to accompany him to Hanover, were also anxious to sell out. So many
sellers, and so few buyers, appeared in the Alley on the 3rd of June,
that the stock fell at once from eight hundred and ninety to six
hundred and forty. The directors were alarmed, and gave their agents
orders to buy. Their efforts succeeded. Towards evening confidence was
restored, and the stock advanced to seven hundred and fifty. It
continued at this price, with some slight fluctuation, until the
company closed their books on the 22nd of June.

It would be needless and uninteresting to detail the various arts
employed by the directors to keep up the price of stock. It will be
sufficient to state that it finally rose to one thousand per cent. It
was quoted at this price in the commencement of August. The bubble was
then full-blown, and began to quiver and shake, preparatory to its

Many of the government annuitants expressed dissatisfaction
against the directors. They accused them of partiality in making out
the lists for shares in each subscription. Further uneasiness was
occasioned by its being generally known that Sir John Blunt, the
chairman, and some others, had sold out. During the whole of the month
of August the stock fell, and on the 2nd of September it was quoted at
seven hundred only...

From "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions"

by Charles Mackay, 1841

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:49 - ID#57232)
Sequin: I have some questions/comments for you. I think the problems with derivatives are not how much of a zero-sum game they are -- because even then you have winners and losers.
The problems seem to be the following:
1 ) Market and trade risk -- ( I may have the precise terms wrong ) Namely if the market vanishes in a puff of smoke like South Korean derivatives, and Russian derivatives -- your example today. So if the entire market vanishes, all the money may be gone, and you may have to petition for your missing money in a South Korean court, even if you were on the winning side of the trade. We probably will have more of these episodes -- South America next?
2 ) Total world derivatives volume doubling every two years -- Yes, I understand derivatives trades are supposed to reduce risk, but what if the volume is rivaling the equities markets, and the traders of these paper entities are not as sophsticated as they need to be?
3 ) Most world derivatives markets are OTC, and unregulated. I am against excessive regulation, but this seems like a setup. You do need a well-defined set of rules so that one party cannot take unfair advantage of another. Especially when the markets melt down. And -- unresolved market meltdowns will discourage all derivatives trades for some time.

My assessment of all of this is that derivatives regulation in the US may push alot of trades onto the OTC market, where the risk of losing money is higher for a variety of reasons, but where the paper shuffling is less of a hassle. Also, derivatives trades are much more sophisticated than buying and selling stocks or mutual funds. My intuitive feeling is that there are alot of individuals trading derivatives with someone else's money that shouldn't be doing it. Especially the banks, since they are expected to be able to return their customers money intact, unless the customer has asked for risky investments. And I am very worried about the exponential growth in derivatives -- with y2k looming in the distant future. Everyone would be a loser if the big derivatives markets just melted down one day, and all of those trades got irretrievably scrambled.
I hope this post will stimulate you to discuss what you know for the rest of our benefit, IMHO.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 17:52 - ID#153102)
@MisGuided Mosel @Steve_In_To
Wishes MoGold to everyone. Go for Beano, MethaneMakers !

Steve Indeed, a Bank Check is not currency. The dealer reporting on his purchases from you relates to Proceeds from Barter Transactions, I thinky. Commodity trading is via a commodity exchange, licensed, naturally. Don't you just love their legal bull crappy ? Are Canadians subject to the jurisdiction of the IRS, too ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:01 - ID#410198)
I don't think Clinton will last out his vacation....prepare for major announcement....say good bye
Bill....bring on for Wall for the exits....IMO

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:03 - ID#237164)
@ SEQUIN, abt derivatives ...
Is there a way to find out the relative exposure or extent that a
bank has? In particular BankAmerica and NationsBank.

Have banks always been able to do derivatives, or is this a recent


(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:06 - ID#57232)
LMBA trading gold at 2000 oz/day, and Comex trades it at ? oz/day
Arden, Foxman: I still think we are missing something here. Why does gold seem to be traded in such a liquid fashion on the LMBA, and be so unresponsive on Comex? Does the LMBA liquidity parallel Comex liquidity? Are Comex stores an adequate measure of world-wide gold trading stores? Are gold lease rates determined world-wide?
My concern is this -- we need to be following world-wide stores of gold, since this will give a better indicator of what will happen, rather that what happens in a localized market. Does anyone know if LBMA trading activity is going down, or up? And if so, is this due to a changed interest in gold as a currency, or is it because there is not enough or too much gold?

Spud Master
(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:06 - ID#28586)
@robnoel re. Clinton announcement from Spamtucket island...
"Callou, callay!
Oh frabjoulous day!"
He chortled in his joy.

if only it might be!

Spud, mighty Ada programmer, indifferent C++ ( ah hates it )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:08 - ID#411233)
Looking for some info, on any Canadian Bear Mutual Funds?--THANKS.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:08 - ID#285392)
Rydex Ursa Fund?? Does anyone know why it doubled today
to just over $10.00? Perhaps it is an error... Any information would be appreciated. I Bought Bearx several months ago and have lost 20%. The retracement profits from the highs were just a few cents. David Tice CEO of Bearx may talk a good story but so far the results of Bearx have been less than very disappointing.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:12 - ID#410198)
Spud Master...last nite Asia bought into media spin that Clinton was still is a
different story..both sides Republicans and Democrates are calling on him to step down for the good of the country......check out my favorite political web page .....go to the forum section

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:13 - ID#30116)
jims & $VIX
Think of the VIX as a standard deviation calculation of the market average. When the VIX is low, the market is essentially moving in a constant direction at a constant rate.

As an example, say the VIX has been low for a long time ( a year ) and the S&P 500 has been going up at 25 points a month. The trend is up, and the average rate of increase is 25 points a month. Now, if the rate of change should suddenly increase or change direction, this will cause the VIX to increase because you've gone above or below the mean rate of change. So if the VIX doubled or tripled in value, that would indicate a CHANGE in the RATE of MOVEMENT. That's what gets people excited about the VIX index. It means a change from the mean price pattern, up or down.

It's not the best explanation in the world, but it's a working one.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:15 - ID#280214)
24K - I'm "keeping my nuts dry"
and my oats too! {though I wish they were wild & wet!}
I better quit before my honey turns to sugar.
Though I can always make more wine with either.

Mozel - thank you for advice on a crucial item to stock.
BEANO! At least a couple of cases of it.
To go with my beans & rice.
which reminds me that the local grocery has 25lb bags for $4.99.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:16 - ID#345321)
He who is faithful in little is faithful in much....................
he who is unfaithful in little is unfaithful in much. WJC?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:16 - ID#242325)
Snowbird: Got to be an error. Market soared today, so Ursa must have dropped sharply.

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:18 - ID#35087)
@Mr. Mick
Well spoken, sir.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:20 - ID#285392)
Mtn Bear on Bear Funds
I just read your information on the Bear Funds performance. Thank you

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:21 - ID#207145)
Because bull markets end that way. Market is down 10% or was Lots of cash on the sidelines. Mutual fund managers will put it to work. Market up 138 pts today. Explain to me how you feel the way you do. You feel the bull will be the first to go out with a whimper?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:21 - ID#147201)
Sharefin re email
Did you get it. My end seemed ok

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:22 - ID#93241)
...just reported that, according to federal financial disclosure documents, Alan Greenspan doesn't have a dime in the stock market ( his wife is though ) . Comment on NBR was that he's missing out and could be doing much better for himself. Apparently he's invested in short term notes, T-bills. Hmmmmm....................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:24 - ID#273227)
Today I put the $VIX on my NDX chart while trading. It signaled the rally this afternoon very well. It is very similar to RSI. Panda - your explaination sounds alot like what I saw. Does anyone know the symbol for $VIX from BMI data? I just searched on VIX and didn't find anything.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:28 - ID#207145)
No offense, but not many posters are familiar with stock market tops. They believe a strong rally, or new high is crazy. It is normal.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:29 - ID#287340)
@Panda Re: VIX
VIX tracks the volatity of the market to a certain extent. However the actual calculation is based on the price of the 2 puts and calls nearest the money on the OEX. When people are scared they bid up the price of the puts which causes the VIX to rise. Yesterday morning the VIX rose 3 points to 36 when the market had hardly moved. This was because of the fear about boy Clintons testimony and Russia devaluing. The market hadn't moved but the price of the options and the VIX had.

Go Gold!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:32 - ID#281175) on old boy.
market top not in yet...10,000 possible before crash Oct. 16,19.

lower gold likely also....272, 256?

this thing gonna ruin all but a few.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:33 - ID#39862)
Slick BC.............


They sure do breed them in Arkansa....

He "sounded" soooooooo sincere.........

A "temporary" lack of judgement..... once, twice.... do we have anymore bidders?

Nobodies problem, but his and his family.......

Echos of "family values".........

Spin, spin, spin............

Anyone for cricket ?

Aragorn III
(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:33 - ID#212323)
JTF...a thought toward your 18:06
You commented, "... I still think we are missing something here. Why does gold seem to be traded in such a liquid fashion on the LMBA, and be so unresponsive on Comex? Does the LMBA liquidity parallel Comex liquidity? Are Comex stores an adequate measure of world-wide gold trading stores?..."

I offer this for your consideration:
These two, the LBMA and the Comex are fundamentally different operations. It is comparing apples to oranges, to use a popular metaphor.

Review some of the dialog between Sequin and Silverbaron on speculating in the currency markets. And remember, that what is considered "speculation" to one man is "hedging" to another. The reasons are different, yet the process is the same. It is this pursuit that keeps them busy at the Comex. It is the meeting place for both sides of the "bet" on the commodity price of gold. Usually the bets are settled with cash, but sometimes with metal. The metal need not be present for the "bookie" to take the bet...agreed? The losing side of the two-sided bet will ultimately provide the settlement.

Those looking to purchase gold do not usually "go shopping" at the Comex warehouses, although sometimes their vaults provide a place for safekeeping of one's gold, and this service is indeed provided. Have you noticed a large increase in the Registered gold inventory over the past 6 months? It is stored there for a fee. It would seems that some new owners without storage capability have taken a long position during this time. Agreed? Perhaps this gold was purchased through the likes of the LBMA...a fine place to go shopping for gold.

Recognize the distinction?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:37 - ID#288186)
JTF; Comex Gold open interest for all contract months has been steadily
increasing. We currently have open interest @ 194k. The volume being
traded at Comex has been fluctuating between 23k and 38k the last
week or so. I'm not sure how much volume is being traded daily in
London. You said something about 2000 oz's? Not sure if you were
meaning volume or not. Anyway, I'm still learning how this all works,
myself. I DO know that open interest on the Comex exchange has been
increasing dramatically and this is attributed to Big Commercial
accumulation ( according to Steve Kaplan's site ) . This seems pretty
relevant to me.
I know others here have asked about London numbers and where to get
them. I don't know myself, but I wish someone did! Oh, well...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:38 - ID#207145)
Moa A
Thanks. I needed that. I'v been catching hell about this strong rally, maybe new high talk. I thought it was market sense. Too few have it. I don't have enough.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:40 - ID#147201)
Kuston your chart with VIX
How about posting the chart. Looks like there may be some good correlation. Thanx, Charlie

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:43 - ID#273432)
Jung @ Bankamerica & Derivatives

I couldn't find anything about Nationsbank, but
here is some info about Bankamerica. Check to see
if it is current...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:44 - ID#273432)
Jung - trying again

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:47 - ID#22985)
Rydex Ursa fund had a 1-for-2 reverse split on Aug. 14

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:47 - ID#249409)
rumpled - re: canadian bear funds
While not truly a "bear" fund, you could look into the Cundill Valu7e Fund. I think last time I checked, it was about 30% in cash, with remaining top 3 investments being Japan, silver futures, and S&P put options. ( obviously a contrarian investor )

Good Luck!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:48 - ID#255226)
Sold my long SNP 1098.50, went short at 1102, stopped out at 1105, trying to short tonight at 1110

Mountain Goat
(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:48 - ID#35087)
Major Y2K Article on ABC News site
Brief but nice mention of Gold too.

"More than 80 percent of large U.S. firms, in fact, are behind schedule
in fixing their computer bugs by 2000, according to a survey by the Cap
Gemini America consulting firm."


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:50 - ID#39862)
JTF (Derivatives)...........

I believe that you have made some very valid points.

In the mineral exploration and mining "game", regulation in the form of the JORC ( Joint Ore Reserve Commitee ) HAD to be put in place, due to fraudulent claims concerning the resources and reserves held by a company.

Numerous cases exist whereby a company, for example, would claim the they had say a MEASURED RESOURCE of 5 million tonnes at 3 g/t. In reality an INFERRED RESOURCE of say 1 million tonnes of 2 g/t may have existed.

The impact on the market for the first figure would have a dramatic increase in the companies share price...... FRAUD !

The end result, "some one", generally an insider would walk off with the loot..........outsider share holders would be left holding the baby.

For the Geologist who had signed the Resource Reserve Declaration... a free go to jail card.

Derivatives, regulation and accountability is required.....else FRAUD.

The "Mums and Dads" of the world generally are not punters, and it is always easy to punt with someone else's money.........

Or, is that the American way ?!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:50 - ID#255226)
stooped out , wwnt back in at close long from 511

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:52 - ID#242325)
APH shorting spoos again. He is one of our best traders. Do not bet the farm on new highs. You might get burned.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:52 - ID#273227)
chas - charts
I have different charting programs at work ( S&P comstock/realtick ) then I do at home ( BMI/tradestation ) . But as soon as I find the BMI symbol for VIX I'll post the chart.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:54 - ID#273432)

You'll have to paste it together - I'm getting a
split URL for some reason. Here's another one
which gives the big picture:

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:56 - ID#288186)
APH; Could you tell me more about Globex trading? I went to the Lind-Waldock
site, entered my acct info, signed some the forms located there,
and downloaded the program needed for entering your own trades, but
I can't seem to get the trade screen to work. It remains blue with
no menu options. Am I missing something?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:59 - ID#281175)
Y2K story...?
There was an engineer who had an exceptional gift for fixing all things
mechanical. After serving his company loyally for over 30 years, he happily retired. Several years later the company contacted him regarding a seemingly impossible problem they were having with one of their
multi-million dollar machines. They had tried everything and everyone
else to get the machine fixed, but to no avail. In desperation, they called on the retired engineer who had solved so many of their problems in the past.
The engineer reluctantly took the challenge. He spent a day studying the
huge machine. At the end of the day, he marked a small "x" in chalk on a
particular component of the machine and proudly stated, "This is where
your problem is". The part was replaced and the machine worked perfectly
The company received a bill for $50,000 from the engineer for his
service. They demanded an itemized accounting of his charges. The engineer responded briefly:

One chalk mark $1
Knowing where to put it $49,999

It was paid in full and the engineer retired again in peace.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 18:59 - ID#39862)
Do you get the feeling that.....

.... the Y2K bug is to be used as a smoke screen for the up and coming market crash, when the "real" reason for it will remain hidden ?

So, who is off on holiday with BC......

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:03 - ID#30116)
I looked in to the calculations for the VIX in the past and you are correct. I was trying to put forward a simplistic although not an exact explanation ( dangerous, I know ) . The big stock index option and stock index futures folks can move the market because of the inherent leverage. Taking a position in these vehicles causes the underlying assets to be bought or sold ( long or short positions ) . One contract, in general, controls one hundred shares of the underlying asset. When it comes to the S&P 100 or 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100, thems no small pototoes......... Leverage is leverage....

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:07 - ID#207145)
Old Gold
Surely he is right. There must be a 50 % retracement before the rally starts. I am amazed that you guys don't know how bulls end.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:10 - ID#30116)
PBS not! What an assumption! The Clintons, a real family? Spin, spin, spin,... Where do I peeeeeeewwwwwwwwkkkk? As George Bush did? In someones lap.

It's about breaking the law! It's about NOT BEING ABOVE THE LAW!!!!


BBL, got to find the porcelin..........

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:13 - ID#39862)
ANOTHER thought.........

FromTatusko: ANOTHER, What currency, besides gold, do you view the world from. Your statement "The $6,000 valuation of gold can only be true if currency
deflation destroys enough dollars to bring it down to that range. Without deflation, the dollar will be devalued much lower than this ( higher gold price ) !"

An American perspective would appear to be "The only way the price of gold will stop at $6,000 is if the Federal Reserve is successful at stopping inflation at that
price. If not, the inflation will be much worse, and the gold price will go much higher.

You speak in terms of what currency? Euro's, Swiss Francs, or ANOTHER? What is your future outlook for the Swiss Franc and Swiss Annuities? Will Swiss
Francs continue to be the strongest currency?

Thanks. Sincerely,

Don Tatusko a.k.a. ShortSellr

ANOTHER: Mr. Tatusko, At present, I, like you, must view the world thru dollar. The "world reserve trading currency" it remains! All persons hold dollars, be
they as the "proxy" currencies of other countries, or other assets worldwide, all things find value thru the "debt securities" of American citizens! It is, the ability of the,
"factory worker" in Detroit, to pay the mortgage that does make your, say "Pounds", of value in world trade. It is the way of the IMF, Yes?

I think, your "American perspective" does not see or know or understand, how the dollar is "already much inflated" worldwide. Your Western thought is only of the
"dollar price of things" at present. It is to say, "if prices do not rise, there be no currency inflation", and "see the world competition for selling goods and services in
dollars, this brings no price increase"! This results from the current world currency system that does force the "holding of dollar debt" as reserves. A new change in
this system will release these reserves, for the spending and the buying! It is during this change that American persons will find a "new price inflation" from a "existing
currency inflation". In this time, the "competition for selling goods and services" will become " the competition to buy goods and services" in Dollars! You see, it is as
you say, "your chicken has roosted for some time, but only now you find he has come home"!

If a depression does arrive to America's main trading partners, Canada, Japan, little Asia, Mexico, etc., it could destroy many of these " roosted" dollars and hold
the dollar price inflation to, "only extreme". Of this point, perhaps $6,000 gold will be enough to represent the extent of past "overprinting".

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:16 - ID#347447)
Hearken ye back to just last Friday when I urged Kitcoites who had a yen to trade the indexes to go long ( 3 hundred Dow points ago ) . Yes, mine frreund ( apologies to der Cheesehead gelden ) there is ALSO a CHANCE that, aside from Sheller being technically right on de money for this rally, the market will ALSO make new highs. The leadership is currently the "glamor" stocks of the day, and the glamors always lead everything else. This decline was a Mercury Station squaring NYSE Sun. Not the usual astrological stuff of which bear markets are yet made. Stand back.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:20 - ID#347447)
Haggis, all
Listen to ANOTHER. He is telling us something VERY important.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:28 - ID#207145)
Old Gold
Your shorts get pulled?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:37 - ID#39862)
If only we had "Friends" like ANOTHER......

8/10/98 Friend of ANOTHER

( Editor's Note: Please read what's below carefully. This is an extraordinary analysis from the Friend of ANOTHER at a time of much confusion and uncertaintly in
investment/currency markets. We are told at the outset that the largest pro-gold groups -- the Europeans and the Gulf states -- want a world currency "not subject
to the performance of the American economy." In other words, a currency not tied to American treasury obligations, or the percpicacity of any other nation for that
matter. That currency for those of us who have reached for the deeper truths of economy is called gold. As an American, I must say that I have never seen the
concept of American hegemony explained in quite the same way before. Perhaps, my eyes were closed. I keep getting this feeling that Americans must necessarily
begin to understand a new role for this country in a rapidly changing international political and economic environment -- a role for which our political and economic
institutions appear ill-prepared. I will not be so presumptuous as to explain what the Friend of ANOTHER is saying, I will let you read for yourself. I do not think it
could be said any better than Friend of ANOTHER says it. The fact that his analysis implies how one should design one's portfolio is a happy side benefit. )

Michael Kosares,

It has taken some time to send this, but now I can also offer my thoughts to your questions.

Your statement: "As a matter of long term policy, do you believe that ECB will "sell" gold to defend the Euro or "buy" gold to defend the Euro? Each of course
would entail a different course of action with respect to reserves of the new national bank. Along these lines,will ECB buy gold from its member treasuries, or will it
simply force them to transfer it to ECB coffers if needed to defend the Euro? I am prompted to ask this question in view of your assertion that there will be much
selling of Euros to defend the dollar. If the Euro, as you suggested, is being printed to buy dollars isn't this just another manifestation of the U.S. exporting its
inflation? It appears to me that the Euro will need to be defended -- and not with dollars -- but with gold! "

Michael, I believe the most difficult part in understanding the modern gold market is overcome by seeing all the various political factions involved. Essentially and
basically, the largest pro gold groups are those who want a world currency that is not subject to the performance of the American economy. At this moment and in
this period of economic history, all currency reserves held by foreigners ( non-Americans ) is a debt of the US Government and by extenuation through tax collection,
a debt based on the ability of the American economy to function profitability!

In essence, America has told the world that as long as the business of this country is functioning, your wealth, as represented in Marks, Yen, Pesos, etc. is backed
with performing US debt. It's like saying, "as long as your neighbor, next door, does not loses his job, you will not lose all your money! Most people would be
surprised at how clear this is, outside the USA sphere of influence. This, the largest of the pro gold group, is largely made up of countries with economies that have
no need to sell most of their production to the US. The business of these communities would not totally fail without the American engine. Yes, they would slow
down, but not collapse, as trade with other countries would continue. To add what was said before: If your neighbor loses his job, you can still trade with the other
people in the town, as long as the currency system is not based on your neighbors debts!

This group, made up of much of Europe and the Middle East, is not looking for a return to the old Gold Standard, but perhaps something far better. They do not
see any advantage in holding the currency bonds of one country, as a reserve asset of future payment, over holding physical gold as a reserve asset in full payment.
The fact that the debt reserve asset pays interest is little more than a joke in these banking circles. Any paper currency, the dollar included, can fall in exchange value
against your local currency far more than the interest received! In today's paper markets, the only true value in exchange reserves, held by a government as currency
backing, is found in it's effectiveness for defending the local currency from falling against other currencies. In other words, use the reserves to buy your countries
money. But, this is a self defeating action as sooner or later the reserves are used up! This fact is not lost on many, many countries around the world, as they watch
their currencies plunge, lacking reserves as defense. Ask them how important the factor of earning interest on reserves is under these conditions.

On the other hand, buying gold on the open market, using your local currency, works as a far different dynamic from selling foreign bond\reserves. This action takes
physical gold off the market, and in doing so increases it's value in dollar terms. Gold is and always has been the chief competitor with the dollar for exchange
reserve status. The advantage here comes from the fact that governments do not run out of local currencies to use in buying gold, as opposed to selling foreign
currency reserves to buy the local currency on the open market. Of course, the local price of gold goes sky high, however, in this action you are seen as taking in
reserves, not selling them off.

Also, as gold begins to rise against the dollar, the local gold reserves are seen as assets of increasing value, backing the local currency. Under these conditions, with
a stable currency, citizens will purchase more gold as it is seen as a positive asset. Not unlike a rising stock, everyone wants an increasing investment. Contrast this
action against that in Korea, where everyone sold gold as it increased in an unstable currency!

Basically, this is the direction the Euro group is taking us. This concept was born with little regard for the economic health of Europe. In the future, any countries
money or economy can totally fail and the world currency operation will continue. What is being built is a new currency system, built on a world market price for
gold. Michael, you are absolutely correct in that the USA will see a hyper inflation of it's currency and a gold price in dollars that reflects it. Unfortunately, for most
investors, the gold price rise will be sudden and also hyper fast. as it will occur just after a rapid plunge in dollar based assets including, stocks, debt and the entire
banking system. This action will destroy virtually all gold based paper assets as they are also dependent on a functioning economic system. A local gold mine, in any
country, must sell production to realize a profit. The contract system they deal with will not be functioning during this time. Contrary to many hopeful investor, local
treasury officials will not allow miners to pay employees or buy equipment with physical gold. When the dust does clear for mining to continue, gold will be
recognized worldwide as real money, and the mining of money will, no doubt, carry Extreme taxation. Stock prices of these operations, after being priced to zero,
will then double or triple in price. Zero times three equals?

Back to your original question. The Euro will not replace gold, it will evolve into a gold transactional currency. It will also price Euro gold very high, perhaps $6,000
in current dollar terms buying power. However, in actual dollar terms of the future, $30,000 US will reflect the American debt as the negative reserve asset it truly
is. The ECB will have an easy time issuing Euros to buy gold from the member banks. The real political warfare will be in trying to force them to sell the gold at all,
once this ball starts rolling. The Euro has, in effect already been dispersed in the form of Gold Leases not gold sales. One has only to look at the official gold
holdings of most central banks to see that physical gold sales are little more than the average, with a good amount of that coming from nonEuro countries. Gold is a
funny thing, it can be sold many times and pass through many countries and still remain in a CB vault. Truth Be told, some 14,000 metric/ton have been sold this
way. Far more than the street thinks. Using this amount it's easy to see how certain entities have moved off the dollar standard in the last few years. If we use a
future price of $6,000+US, the move is about complete.

The process: An oil country ( or others ) goes to London and purchases one tonn of gold from a Bullion Bank. The BB borrowed this gold from the CB ( leased ) . The
one tonn gold certificate is transferred to the new owner. The gold stays in the CB vault and the owner goes home. The CB leased this gold to the BB and expects it
to be returned plus interest. The BB financed the Actual Purchase of this gold mortgaging assets of the buyer. The BB, who created the loan, then uses the cash
arranged in this venture to contract with a mining company ( or anyone wanting a gold/cross financing deal ) to purchase production gold, using this cash to pay for it.
In the eyes of the mining company, the BB just sold gold on the open market, for cash, and will purchase future production at the contracted price. The mine does
not know where the gold came from, only that it was sold and a fixed cash price is waiting. Of course, most of this made more sense when gold was higher. There
were thousands of these deals, structured in every possible fashion. Look to the volume on LBMA and you see where the future reserve currency is traded today!

Now when we look at this picture, who is at risk here? The Euro CB Group still holds the physical gold and will buy it back from the new owners, if asked, using
printed Euros. The new gold owner has just replaced his dollar reserves with either bargain priced gold, or Euros at an exchange rate never to be seen again! Some
of this was done to buy the pricing of oil in Euros. The BB owe the CBs 14,000 tons of gold that they must collect inthe future from producers or currency
speculators. And they must collect it by paying what will be a, then, ridiculous price of $300/$400US, while the world market price will be, well, a little higher.

With Canada, Australia, and perhaps England having sold much gold to hold US$, much of the English speaking, IMF/dollar world is about to change. Any country,
Japan, Mexico, etc., that has locked their future by selling most of their production to the American economy , is headed for a depression. Another is answering
some of your mail questions and is also sending a letter. Will send it on arrival.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:41 - ID#39862)
Got to go and find a GOLD mine.....

See ya later.............

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:47 - ID#253153)
Blooper-- you said " New high's on the DOW before a crash "
Did you you know that we are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear market . Are you telling us that the Dow Theory is invalid ? The Dow Theory is the oldest, most proven and most tested theory and has been around a lot longer than you. Any comments ?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:47 - ID#207145)
This guy is interesting, but 6,000 gold. I don't think so.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 19:59 - ID#257344)
comex gold
JTF- no, I don't think we are missing something. LBMA trading is paper trading in bulk is my estimation - maybe the way to really track the physical movement is to see import and export numbers if they are really available. My point has always been that most of comex trading is also just paper trades, that is why I have tried to draw attention for the past two years to the 'eligible' figures which represent actual physical deliveries. Now the gold world is lulled into complete complacency where if you short gold on paper, all you have to do is buy another person's paper to cover it. BUT WHEN the world wakes up, its all over. At least that is my opinion and has been so for the last few years. There are obviously very powerful forces who do not want to see this happen because it will mean the end of currencies as we have known them. However, these forces are getting painted into the same kind of corner as Clinton, he either had to lie or admit he lied - it was the perfect Catch 22. So is the developing currency ( dollar ) - gold picture. As the numerous intelligent discussions on this forum have pointed out, the end of the gold bear is near but it must correspond to the end of the dollar bull and stock market bull ( gee I like the sound of that - 'stock market bull' ) I'll end on that thought!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:00 - ID#402148)
JP.....John Bollinger just did a good piece on Dow Theory........
he acknowledges it has formally given sell signal, which can be NEGATED by a new high close in the Dow Jones and Dow Transports.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:06 - ID#240248)
Harry Dent Says....
Harry Dent thinks this market will run back up to around 9000 and then reverse course and go back to around 7300 ( assuming it blows through 8400 again ) . He has been calling these market fluctuations exactly for the three years I have followed him. I am assuming he will be correct again.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:08 - ID#253153)
Hopefull---I have checked every signal the Dow Theory has ever given over the last 100 years
Over the last 100 years 21 true primary signals were given and every one was correct. Some bull or bear markets were short and some were long, but they were correct. I'm talking about a true primary bear market signal
given on July 17, 98.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:09 - ID#210114)
Latest ECB stuff

NEWS FLASH - 17 August 1998
Update on European Central
Bank ( ECB ) Developments

As part of a continuing dialogue with the world's central banks and drawing
on a variety of other well-placed sources, the PPC has come to the
following assessments:

1.As maintained in the past and despite recurrent market rumours to the
contrary, informed sources continue to believe that there will be no
new significant gold operations by member national central banks
( NCB's ) before the beginning of EMU. Thereafter, any programme
of disposal would be closely coordinated by the ECB.
2.For some time period after EMU commencement in January 1999, all
reserve asset operations ( including those for gold ) above a fairly low
level will be subject to prior approval by the ECB in Frankfurt.
Indeed, this minimum level may be set at less than 10 million euros, or
about 1 tonne of gold.
3.Gold holdings by member NCB's are not expected to be subject to
benchmark yields by the ECB. This would remove the necessity for
countries such as France or Italy to enter the gold lending/swap
markets in order to meet Frankfurt targets on their gold reserve asset
4.Gold transferred from NCB's to the ECB will probably be priced as
a function of then prevailing market prices, but with a discount. At
least part of the reason for this is to prevent some member NCB's
from having to declare a loss on holdings. There is continuing
discussion on valuation methods.
5.It is increasingly clear that ECB personnel are developing confidence
and becoming more assertive vis--vis counterparts in the NCB's.
Centralisation of decision-making to Frankfurt seems to be
progressing apace.

Many of the key decisions relating to gold have yet to be made. These
difficult issues include the valuation method, whether all central banks will
contribute the same proportions of dollars, yen and gold and whether the
15% gold to reserves ratio would be maintained in the event that the ECB
called up more reserve assets.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:09 - ID#210114)
Beaming in.......

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:15 - ID#288295)

Sounds like major good news to me....we'll see how long it takes the spinmeisters to try and turn it around so that it looks bad for gold.

Better try hard lads - you've only got 4 months to spin this before it blows up in your face!


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:17 - ID#368244)
People talk

Tomorrow I buy physical gold,does anyone believe in gold?

Mr . Clinton, I want to believe you , call on your God... call him by name.

Who can call him by name? His name is ---------------------------------------

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:22 - ID#287312)
Don't mislead sound much better than
just plain old lie.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:26 - ID#402148)
Check out Drudge seems Mr. Clinton got hung up with
what the facts are, by an "unexpected" line of questioning....OOPS!


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:29 - ID#218221)
Can you read this url? Let me know.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:32 - ID#288295)

It requires registration.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:33 - ID#253153)
The bear track
In a true primary bear market there are always sharp rallies after a substantial decline. The bear wants to make you feel good about your stock investments and take you to the bottom fully invested. Bear markets are costly and will clean you out if you don't watch your belongings. As an example , look at the gold bear market which is just about over. All of us lost money and many gave up.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:34 - ID#218221)
The registration is free, the password is the same for all.
In Capital Letters WAVE5, then underneath, in cap's, TTI. Try that.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:36 - ID#402148)
Watching Bollinger talk today, about how Japan cannot get jumpstarted with low interest rates.
It's occuring to me more and more they will be using the USA to do it for them.

In order to be solvent Japanese banks need the Nikkei way up.....US and Jap. markets have gone into a lockstep mode ( per Bill Buckler ) .....if they can goose the USA markets high enough they can avoid the political pain of restructuring ( in their view. )

Once confidence in the banking system restored, it will feed on itself in Jap, economic recovery. Unfortunately for the USA, they have Greenspan by the gonads, cause they need to print the money for this
market inflation by selling our bonds, thus printing dollars. Greenspan will have to monetize them, or face the specter of global depression.

Final result.....booming global economy and hyperinflation.



(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:39 - ID#218221)
Did it work?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:39 - ID#402148)
JP. conversely, bull markets correct the recent 1000 point drop in the Dow.
Fastest 1000 point drop on record.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:45 - ID#287312)
Every market that has opened is up in Asia.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:46 - ID#288295)

Nice chart - Hope the Wave 5 judgement turns out to be correct. ( Don't we all? )

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:46 - ID#402148)
Heh Spock, what as the source of that good ECB piece..was it sent out on the 17th?


(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:47 - ID#43460)
Hopefull re Drudge Report
Thanks, H. I'm more confidant about the political process today than I've been any time since that dreadful spring after he took office. That was the spring I saw video clips of the Somalis dragging American corpses through the streets of Mogadishu for the dogs to eat. I don't worry about Zippergate but every day I pause to ponder about the bigger evil which has been perpetrated in allowing this ( sorry I can't think of an obscenely filthy enough analogy ) to remain free outside the maximum security block at Ft. Leavenworth.

At least history will vindicate us in a small way by calling this the Clinton Depression like they called the last one the Hoover Depression.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:47 - ID#345321)
Senator's Email addresses - here they are..........................
In case you haven't got them already, here is the email address of every Senator in the US Senate. I heard on TV tonight they are waiting "with their finger to the wind" to find out what the public thinks. Let them know.

Just block cut and paste this into a text file and save it, then you can use it in an email whenever you like............,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:47 - ID#210114)
ECB stuff from WGC syte.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:48 - ID#267344)
illegal campaign contributions... need I say more?
The Socialist Republic of the United States of America is governed by illegally elected officials who accept substancial bribes and donations from both internal and external political interests, including government funding from foreign ( and otherwise hostile ) governments. This is a FACT. This is an obstruction of democracy. This is foreign occupation. This is a covert act of war. This is Treason. Should we allow years of evidence gathering to be swept under the rug, recognising that such practices are as old as politics, or do we stamp it out wherever and whenever we can. You make the call. -c

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:48 - ID#253153)
Hopefull--Yes, bull markets correct sharply as well, but I follow the Dow Theory
The Dow Theory rendered a primary bear market signal and that is good enough for me. I believe we are in a corrective phase now after a 1000 points decline and we may get back to 8700-8950 or so, but after this rally peters out watch for a major decline sometimes in Sep. This decline will take the Dow much below the 8300 probably in the high's 6000.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:49 - ID#218221)
Here is another chart from the TTI. remember password WAVE5, then, TTI

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:50 - ID#345321)
Oops - that may not have worked. Let me try to attach it
as a text file.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:51 - ID#31867)
all day, driven everywhere on the Island that is Long and the Clinton's are nothing,
garbage, Arkansas crap...and the best part...YOU and every family in the USA is paying for their vacation...YOUR money...and whatever sits on james carvilles head should not have been more no less...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:54 - ID#218221)
I called the office of the Democratic Senator today from our state( 1 of 2, the other is a Repub)
and called for him to ask for HIS resignation. Vehemently! i heard her typing it all down and then was politely thanked after I gave my name and address. Then I felt Much better. Try it, it works!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:56 - ID#368244)
Mr. Mick

Please watch those URL's...................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:56 - ID#210114)
Who cares...
Clinton has affair. Big Deal. Apparently every US President except Wilson and Carter had an affair while in the White House.

Those criticising Clinton here are just grumpy conservatives who can't deal with the fact that a Democrat has won two terms in the White House.

He shouldn't have lied; but the fact that the future of the political and economic world hinges on an argument about a blow job shows you have obsessed western society has become about trivial things.

Live Long and prosper.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:57 - ID#253246)
tolerant 1*****any truth to that old Island proverb

Red *Fagina at night sailors delight

Red *Fagina in the morning sailors puke

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:58 - ID#228128)
What's your target. Mine is 1050.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 20:59 - ID#401460)
".....he should resign." Clinton

At the height of Watergate in the summer of 1974, during Bill Clinton's race to become a U.S. Representative from Arkansas, Clinton once declared: "If a President of the United States ever lied to the American people he should resign."

Drudge Report

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:00 - ID#345321)
Isure, I'm trying to upload the file to Bart's server, to no avail..........
sorry about the previous screw up.

Mr. Mick
(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:01 - ID#345321)
Oh well, I'll send it to Tolerant1, maybe he can post it, or you guys can get it
from him. Sorry.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:06 - ID#288229)

looks like nostradamus was right about a us president losing--soon--
his office due to sexual mis-conduct....his comet is overdue...............

billy klinton was the subject of a quatrain....i posted it 6 months ago...
i'll post again when time allows...

'the farther back you look, the farther forward you can see'
winston churchill....

chaos and flux is what we can expect...the good times are cyclically
doomed..there is nothing more to it! there is balance in everything..
and nothing is is cyclically doomed to explode....
physics.....the resolver of for the timing....

who knows where the fell wind blows....we posture as if supremacy is is not.....consider the great cultures of old.....where are
they ALL now??? why? what caused rome to fall?? where are WE NOW?

awaken peopleo....the food you eat.....and the cards being deal,t are
not even close to what is really on the plate.....


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:07 - ID#218221)
Spock:... It's not about the BJ, It's about the utter Contempt that this guy has for the American
public, as well as the Oath he took in a court of law and the Perjury he commited.
The Abuse of power, obstruction of justice and the myriad of other lies that he is telling, told and so on.
What just because he is a democrat, that must mean he cares more so it's OK for Demo's to break the law, right? I think not!
The only thing this guy has demonstrated that he does Real Well is .......LIE!
He was OH SO convincing back in Jan. when he shook his finger at everyone,........and LIED, VEHEMENTLY!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:08 - ID#401460)

"...shows you have obsessed western society has become about trivial things."

Trivial? You really think so? WOW!
What planet are you from, this is not about a BJ.

The President has broken the law of the land. Is he above the law? I think not, this is not over my friend - wait till we get to China treasonable acts.

This guy is a real Jerk! Get rid of him!


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:09 - ID#206235)
Oh Brother ...Not more ANOTHER
Realistic, can't you repost some of ANOTHER's many failed predictions and discredited ideas? The March "Gold to $320-360" range shift and subsequent "Crush to cover" within 5 to 10 days for example?

This Gold market is ASB.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:10 - ID#347172)
Hillary for President
If Hillary has the amount of brains everyone thinks she has, she would return from vacation with a speech of her own to the American people. Telling everyone how betrayed she feels and that she can no longer tolerate the lies and deception. Detailing how she plans to file for divorce from WJC, she would also announce that she is would consider the nomination of the Democratic party for the Presidency in 2000. Immediately she would be the front runner, instead of tree hugger Al.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:16 - ID#207145)
I know this is a bear market. Is there one who does not? Rallys take place in bear markets. I am surprised at how little some of you guys know. A new high can happen in a bear. It did in29, and 87 and numerous other times. You would be better off not to discuss this matter.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:17 - ID#316193)
I Am Proud to Announce
That I am a great-grandfather again. This one is 9 pounds,
7 ounces, and mother and baby are fine and will be coming
home tomorrow. I am honored ( and with tears in my eyes ) that
he has been named "Lee" after me.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:18 - ID#31867)
BUFFORD, Namaste' heh, heh, heh, gulp to ya...even worse...I have sent mail, E or
Snail mail...inviting every Man to put their penis in Chelsea's dress or not...and then get on television wearing makeup and lie about Arkansas as if the did not Mena anything...the CLINTONS can kiss my American Island that is LongASS...Lets draw the battle lines now...

If the Clintons mouths were urinals I would hold it until I got some place clean and American.

And no offense meant to the Great folks of Arkansas, just some mold ran down a hogs leg and ended up in OUR the White Housea fine gulp of tequila to ya

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:20 - ID#206235)
@ Spock
Let's see now, let me get this trivial stuff straight.

Clinton wants to get elected, the press has the goods on him re Gennifer Flowers and otehr Bimbo's, so he tells us with all sincerity, as he stares at the camera, Hillary by his side, that he has "Caused Pain in his marriage". He assures us electorate however, that such lapses in judgement will SURELY not take place if we elect him to the highest office in the land.

Then we have Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Monica Lewinsky, and apparently a slew of others. We have BJ's from a 21 year old immature dewey eyed intern taking place in the White house, under the same roof as his family.

When "caught" what do we get? Another sincere speech to us all about how he "didn't have sex with that woman" and "There was NO INAPPROPRIARE relationship....". Uh huh.

Then we have Clinton sending his friends, wife, advisors, and cabiner on "Hit" missions against the "Right Wing conspiracy" that is leveling all these lies against him. Uh huh. We have him constantly obfuscating and refusing to co-operate with the Indepedant counsel, and then whining about the time and expense to complete the investigation!!!

Now finally, when he's cornered by Starr, and he knows that the evidence will no longer allow him to lie his way out of this one, he makes a "confession".... which does NOT include an apology to the American people, nor an apology to all those who he had lie for him, nor any genuine admission of guilt.

Nope, instead he hides behind his wife and child, claim it's just a personal issue, and blames Starr and "politics" for his own horrendously poor judgement and pattern of abuse.

You call this sociopath a leader of the last remaining superpower?

This is a guy you want running the country eh?

It's this attitude of the sheeple that truly frightens me, not the transparent phoniness of the CLinton's. I had more faith in the American people at one time. No more...


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:21 - ID#396249)
Spock ...with all due respect you do not get it....and I will hazard a guess you have never worn

the uniform of your country.....civilians
don't get it and have no clue......the office
of the PRESIDENT is where decisions are made
to send young men to thier death.....this is
the last place on earth you want a man to be
that you cannot trust......clinton is a wimp
and a scum bag if this is who you want to
indentify yourself with.....give it a week may just may want to change your mind

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:23 - ID#31867)
LeLand, Namaste' a gulp to all of you...there are many Suns in the Universe...
may this baby live longer than each of them may shine.........

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:24 - ID#207145)
Maybe your penis. I wouldn't touch that homely girl even if she wasn't jail bait to me. I know shes legal. Too young ( your point ) and too but ugly. I'm sure she is a fine person. Her parents are white trash. Right SSpock. Beam you up.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:25 - ID#371302)
Tuvok (@ Spock)
Spock, be LOGICAL

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:25 - ID#267344)
tolerant one, my esteemed colleague...
I believe your frustrations are directed at the president, not his daughter. I have a feeling that she is even more pissed off than you are about this mess ( and I can imagine that makes her REALLY pissed off! ) . Perhaps it would be wise to show a little respect and compassion for those who are associated with the man, but not not directly responsible for anything he does. Perhaps your penis should stay in your pants, yes? -c

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:25 - ID#230216)
AGULP to you and yours...

give him some silver eagles...........uh huh.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:26 - ID#218221)
BUG_AL: Faith in the American people I have! The Media and clinton I do not1

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:28 - ID#206235)
@ Golden CHEESEHEAD....where are your market reports today???
Cheeze, where are your all caps reports on the market activity today? You told me you weren't a cheerleader for falling equities, just a reporter of the facts. Shouldn't we be hearing about how today's rally was much more broadly based than yesterdays?

Aren't you going to shout at us in caps about how new highs to nre lows ratio went up by a factor of 10 for new highs on the NY exchange? Ar that advancers outpaced decliners by a wife margin? Or that all indexes rose in much healthier fashion than Monday?

What about the Nikkeir going back above 15,000? We don't get reports on this either? Hmmmmmm.

Could it be....could it just be that you're not an objective observer/ Could it also be that the vaunted crash you precited for this week was once again innacurate? And could we finally agree, that trying to time market crashes is an exercise in futility ( if you and Puetz are any example ) .

Sorry Cheeze, just feelin a little feisty today after seeing such a sad debasement of my country last night.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:31 - ID#373403)
The Pentagon plans a thorough review of its Y2K compliance. "We will take a hard look at progress in November and December," Cohen writes in the memo. "If we are still lagging behind, all further modification to software, except those needed for Y2K remediation, will be prohibited after Jan. 1, 1999."

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:32 - ID#288295)
tolerant1 - I see Collin Seymour has picked up your quote

Hot Potato News
Quote of the day ( thanks to 'tolerant1' )

"He who is void of virtuous attachments in private
life is, or very soon will be, void of all regard
for his country. There is seldom an instance of a
man guilty of betraying his country, who had not
before lost the feeling of moral obligations in
his private connections... Private and public
vices are in reality... connected. ... Nothing is
more essential to the establishment of manners in
a State than that all persons employed in places
of power and trust be men of unexceptionable
characters. The public cannot be too curious
concerning the characters of public men."

--Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams ( 1722-1803 ) , a Harvard graduate, was
preeminent in leading the American Revolution, led
protests against the Stamp Act, founded the Sons
of Liberty, organized the Boston Tea Party, and
was signatory to the American Declaration of
Independence. "I am perfectly satisfied," he
wrote, in a letter to a friend in April, 1776, "of
the necessity of a public and explicit declaration
of independence..."

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:32 - ID#288186)
Japan's Nikkei is up 1.54%... Other Asian markets up, as well...
Gold up 40 cents Silver up 1.5 cents

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:32 - ID#206235)
@ Robnoel.......your 21:21
Isn't it ironic that the "Commander in Cheat" is not held to the standard of conduct by the American people, that they expect of all his subordinates in the military, the UMCJ.

Sad sad day. Oh yes, but I forgot. It's just between him and Hillary and God that he's a lying, dishonest, philandering, cheating, disloyal, unreliable sleaze with the world's poorest judgement and leadership ability.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:32 - ID#156161)
Congratulations! I hope the child inherits a ton of gold.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:33 - ID#207145)
Don't tell me theres a rally.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:34 - ID#31867)
clone, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, oh! a gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmm
greetings my friend from the Island that is you say this apple did not roll far from the tree...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...with all duly earned respect...........Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I offer her nothing until she speaks for herself...nothing...In the Republic...allowance was change in the pocket of a youth...not public apathy for diseased DNA...

Gulp to ya...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:35 - ID#288186)
blooper; ok, I won't...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:37 - ID#207145)
Weren't you one of those who poo--pooed that idea?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:38 - ID#401460)

The leader of the free world!


Really Cute, Huh? Puppy Love is Beautiful, isn't it. This is real world leadership ability. If Rubin leaves he is up a creek.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:39 - ID#156161)
Massachusetts Speaker of the House, tonight on
CSPAN spoke out with eloquence and clearness
against Clinton. The Kennedy clan hears what
this guy says. There is some hope.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:40 - ID#31867)
SilverBaron, Namaste' a Giant gulp to ya my where credit is due...this
then is a mistake of mine...the following are them which deserve the credit...althought I am sure me and Sammy A. would have had fun at the bar...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

Visit THE FEDeralist at:


He who is void of virtuous attachments in private life
is, or very soon will be, void of all regard for his
country. There is seldom an instance of a man guilty of
betraying his country, who had not before lost the
feeling of moral obligations in his private
connections. --Samuel Adams

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:41 - ID#206235)
Clinton attacks Gore with Reno
Anyone else read the WSJ story today about how Janet Reno just mysteriously re-opened the investigation into Gore's campaign phone calls?

Is it just me or is this a blatantly transparent misuse of Reno once again by CLinton, in order to keep his greatest threat ( Gore ) at bay?

After all, let's remeber that Gore is squeaky clean by comparison and ran against Clinton in the primary's past. Clinton is using his lapdog Reno to keep Gore in line through thinly veiled thuggery threats. Them FBI files will come in handy too when Starr's report get's to Congress eh?


(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:43 - ID#304282)
I don't know where cheesehead is tonight, but I am sure he has not changed his position. In fact, neither have I. If you read my comments last week I reported that market history and Jerry Favors tells us that there would be a rally this week. It will be strong enough to convince most people to go long. This rally will be anywhere from 40-80% of the recent drop. The average rally of this type has been 62%. I expect at least a 150 points more to the upside. THIS RALLY SHOULD BE SHORTED OR USED TO LIQUIDATE POSITIONS. After the past two days market action I feel more confident than ever that the collapse of the stock market is days away.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:46 - ID#218221)
I give HIM to the end of the week. The Emperor has no clothes.
Just Resign and be DONE with it. I'm tired of hearing the media kiss your ass. LEAVE!!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:46 - ID#207145)
Recession/ depression
One positive benefit is that society takes a shower. Washes all the filth off and starts concentrating on the basics of life. The family. Character.The skirts get longer ( darn it ) . No more GAY NINETIES.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:49 - ID#207145)
Sorry. This rally will be followed by a 50% retracement. Then the real rally that might take us to new highs. Then about the 3rd of September the panic will start.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:49 - ID#288186)
blooper; I have never commented on the Nikkei. I'm not sure what you're
referring to. My main intention was to show Gold and Silver being
up, even though they're only up a little. Not that there's any
correlation to the metals and the Nikkei...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:50 - ID#247273)
is it that
1. The whole world is brainwashed with the same tripe our media belches out daily OR
2. Manipulation is the order of the day, complicit with governments worldwide in steering the markets.

either way,
we are in trouble

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:54 - ID#206235)
Clinton's speech
What he really meant to say;

"How am I going to get laid now bewteen now and the year 2001? Isn't that the REAL Y2K Problem?"

"I'm going to get so backed up that I'll be able to stain dresses clear across the country with one shot. Reminds me of Bear hunting in Arkansas"

"I was REALLY pissed at those intrusive questions Starr posed in the Grand Jury. The size of my male member? Now how am I going to explain my perjury on that one?"

"Doesn't Hillary get the message that I don't want to share the presidency anymore? What does it take to get her out of the damn White House???"

"American people, you women who elected me....I just want you to know I have an intern opening here on the Presidential STAFF"

Dave in CO
(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:55 - ID#229141)
Hey Al,

You have a writing style very similar to a departed poster named LGB. Oh, now I see: there is an "l", a "G", a "B", and the chemical symbol "au". Very clever.

Sorry if this has already been addressed, but I just got back to lurking here.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:56 - ID#206235)
@ Tricky.........."Market crash days away"
Come on, be honest, your REAL name is STeve Puetz isn't it Tricky! Isn't it??????

(Tue Aug 18 1998 21:57 - ID#207145)
Jerry hasn't reported yet this week. You may be right too. I think you will see it takes a while to get overbought. There is a lot of sideline money. A lot will be drawn out . There will be a powerful rally. A blast upward. A blowoff. One day will be up several hundred points. How scary is that!!!
Internet stocks are leading the way. Damn. I'm scared now.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:00 - ID#206235)
@ Dave in CO
Hey man, you "outed" me. What did you do, look at my handle in the mirror? You have to admit, on a forum with conspiracies and all ( well it used to be such a forum anyway ) I HAD to play the handle backwards and inject the AU right?

You're a clever dude Dave, and I take back anything mean spirited I ever said about you. Now admit it. the REAL giveaway was my plethora of typo's. Right? And Puetz baiting? Hey, if I had worked harder at being "different" you wouldn't have caught on so quick.

Al...uh I mean LBG

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:03 - ID#207145)
ANOTHER says gold-- 6000 an ounce
But then he's been smokin crack.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:05 - ID#304282)
Blooper where do you come up with this?
Every major market top in the last 150 years has followed this pattern. The intitial high is put in, which is followed by a sizeable drop. Then the first suckers rally of the bear market ensues. THIS IS WHERE WE ARE NOW!! EXTREME CAUTION ADVISED!! The average size of this retracement rally has been 62% but can be as low as 40%. After this rally is over, there is no pause, there is no trading range, there is no new high. There is only a whooshing sound as stocks free fall and the bubble is pricked. Expect a 35-50% fall before stocks find a temporary bottom. This will be followed by a prolonged rally that leads people to believe the bull is alive again. After this retracement rally the long grinding bear market takes over. The asian markets have followed this pattern perfectly. Look at a chart of South Korea.

History repeats itself, ignore it at your own peril.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:07 - ID#401460)

Shanghai Composite
Hong Kong
Hang Seng ^HSI

Dave in CO
(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:08 - ID#229141)
It was the writing style that gave you away. Then the mind of a software engineer saw the pattern in the name.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:08 - ID#219363)
Many congratulations Leland, tis a wonderful thing. Hold the child high.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:09 - ID#304282)
The Favors Analysis comes out tomorrow.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:12 - ID#207145)
This will be the third top. All were made by rapid runups. The final is a spurt. I'm glad you are an expert at this. Mr Puetz is also. I am not. I want you to know that this rally will fail. A 50% retracement will happen. Then the last rally will develop. It will be powerful. A real blowoff. A final gasp of a mortally wounded bull. New highs will be made. Now lets see how it develops.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:14 - ID#219363)
To the bear chase ...
Okay, forget about whether you think the market is going to stay bullish or bearish, skip that - let us ASS-U-ME that the market is in a bear, and that we will see 8700-8950 at which point we'll quickly see 7000 or lower, just for the sake of argument. If you KNEW that to be a fact, you had a scrap of September's Wall Street Journal in your hands that said what the close would be, what would you do about it ?

What would be your choices for strategies ? Shorts, puts ? What ? For those who are using a little gambling money on this position, what are you doing exactly ? If you are shorting and/or buying puts, which stocks ? Which sectors ? Or are you being broader and betting against and index ? Which stocks are likely to take the biggest hit if something like that were to happen ? Inquiring minds really wanna know.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:15 - ID#206235)
On a serious note.....50% chance of a market crash
I must in all seriousness however, defer to my bearish friends, the chance that a market crash may indeed occur in the short to intermediate term. I'm long this market at the moment ( I wasn't kidding when I said I bought a hefty Magellan position last week ) .

However, when we look at the pattern of Magellan and the market as a whole since 1987 "mini crash" , what do we see?

Long up cycle waves, getting shorter and higher.... ominous. Look at Magellan.

Dates Wave Months Beginning and end price, this wave

11/88-9/90 1 22 14.00 - 22.00
9/90 -9/92 2 24 22.00 - 38.00
9/92 -1/95 3 27 38.00 - 46.00
1/95 -6/96 4 18 46.00 - 64.00
6/96 -3/97 5 9 64.0 - 72.00
3/97 -1/98 6 9 72.00 - 90.00
1/98 -6/98 7 6 90.00 - 105.0
6/98 -8/98 8 3 105.00 - 105.00 ( With 115.00 between )

Indeed, accelerating waves of shorter during culimnating in a "Head & Shoulders" pattern, which may however, have one last big push left in it before the problems of worldwide recession.

Al uh I mean LGB divided by AU

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:16 - ID#434298)
Filing Gold Dust off Gold bars or 1oz coins in order to eat.
The poor Goldbug - nothing in the cupboard to eat.
But lots of Gold coins and bars.
When he can find somebody who'll sell groceries for Gold,
he finds that his precious beautiful bars & coins are too big.
To buy a few cans of beef stew he may only need 20 grains of Gold.
But that amount is only 1/24 of a one-ounce coin.
Terrible irony it is - surrounded by Gold - but starving to death!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:17 - ID#207145)
I do appreciate your intrest and expertise. I think you enjoy this as much as I do. Did you get the volume today? ( DOW ) .

Gianni Dioro__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:18 - ID#384350)
Govt Guarantees or
...Big Banks Sucking on the Public Teat?

Colin Seymour's page says: The Bank for International Settlements, in Basle, has claimed that the big German banks have lent Russia a total of 18.5 billion pounds sterling. More than 90% of this is covered by German government loan guarantees. However, about 1 billion pounds sterling of German bank lending is believed to be seriously at risk, with up to 60% of that being covered by the banks' own risk provisions. The German DAX stock market has been the one most seriously affected by falls in Europe in relation to recent events in Russia.

This indicates that the German Govt has underwritten loan guarantees on Russian loans by German Banks. So let's add that to manipulated markets and govt graft. It's the same reason China has Most Favored Nation status, so that huge corporations can get loan guarantees from the govt and invest risk free.

If these European States weren't banding together and issuing a new currency, then I think we would definitely seeing currency weakness in at least a few of these countries.

I ask, are there any free countries left in the world that aren't subject to a international cartel of lords?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:20 - ID#304282)
Blooper that is what happened from June to July.
The general market topped in the spring while the Dow made its final speculative blowoff rally. Then the DOW THEORY Sell signal was given. Not only does this confirm that we have already seen the top, Jerry Favors predicted in January using Gann analysis that the high for the year would be made on July 22 +- 2 days. He was right on 6 months before the market topped!! BTW he is now advising shorting this rally. I could be wrong, and I will be the first to say so if a New High is made, but history is on my side.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:21 - ID#206235)
Magellan fund waves
Oops, forgot that Kitco would scramble the format on me. Eesiest way to see the waves is to go to Yahoo business and look up FmagX charts. I realize others have pointed out the waves and "topping patterns" in the past, but it has become more apparent in this most recent wave, if one believes in TA.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:23 - ID#206235)
@ RJ Platinum?
Russian devaluation bad for Platinum one day and good the next?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:23 - ID#412286)
Note from Russia
"Yeltsin has devalued himself" qoute by a member of Central Committee Of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. It will be interesting when Clinton goes over there in a few weeks.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:23 - ID#304282)
I think the volume was around 550. Not sure.
I do enjoy this and we both have the same positions, we are just debating the path we will take to get there.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:23 - ID#207145)
This aint no tame bull. It is the biggest, baddest in history. It ain't goin out with a whimper.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:24 - ID#28994)
Is my bottle halve full or halve said no more gay ninties............I am putting you in charge.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:26 - ID#304282)
I used to think we would make a run at 10000 also but
I think the evidenceis against that. That we will not get close to 10,000, just shows how sick and weak this market is. I have actually gotten more confident these last 2 days.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:27 - ID#207145)
I will be reading Jerry tomorrow. I would not ride the bull to the top. I am in cash. 50% retracement and I go in 50%. Get out about9000.Ii play it safe.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:27 - ID#30116)
Demorats begin to attack the Bubba. Crapochusetts demorats no less. Hmmmn.

Let's see. Gold does nothing in the face of political crisis in the U.S. Oil does nothing to slightly lower in the face of this political problem. Terrorism is on a rapid rise due to ( IMO ) Klintock being perceived as a weak, debased leader. No moral fiber.

More to come. Campaign finance stuff with AlGore. Chinagate. FBI files. Yup, I wonder just WHAT is in judge Starr's report. How many political nukes are laying around? Inquiring minds wish to know!

A few more days like this on the Dow and we could be above 9000 in short order. Hell, even the Klintock factor seems to have been discounted. Now, how do we account for the new courseness in American language due to the Bubba? And it isn't over yet..................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:28 - ID#412286)
The Real Estate
Market is good and the economy can sustain with consumer spending.. ( in spite of record debt and bankruptcies ) .. Welcome to the 'liein' ninties versus the roarin' twenties. Clinton is the perfect president for the time. His demise will kill the lie..which much pain

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:30 - ID#304282)
One last thought tonight
These rallies only last anywhere from a few days to about a week and a half. I expect, to quote slick willie, "sooner rather than later."

We shall see.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:31 - ID#207145)
Can you imagine an arab hearing "Ifeel your pain". Womens president.
What a wussy.. Iraq thinks he is a Wussy. Hell lets kick him around just for fun. We got to get this pus outta there.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:31 - ID#30116)
must be getting late...
I can't even spell coarseness correctly.....................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:32 - ID#401460)
How they do it!

TOKYO, Aug 19 ( Reuters ) - Japan does not need to sell U.S. Treasuries in
advance to intervene in the foreign exchange market, senior Finance Ministry
official Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday.

``We can intervene immediately,'' Kuroda said, answering questions at the
Lower House budget committee.

``Japan sells U.S. Treasuries to acquire dollars in cash for intervention, but the actual procedure is done immediately in coordination with the New York Federal Reserve Bank,'' he said.


(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:32 - ID#31867)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Yeltsin and Clintler, all we will need after that is some
one of Jack's Ass's...whoa, whoa nellie...oh yeah...Blair...maybe after that we can go kiss one of them tha're Chinese butt's, ya know, one of them DEMOCRATIC loving, murdering bastards...ya know the kind...the ones with those them bloody pliers with the teeth of students in em...

yeah...that's the ticket...................................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:34 - ID#255226)
Order Entry for Lind on Line only works during the day sessions, 6:30 am - 3:15 pm. You'll have to call in your trades to the night desk to place orders on Globex. You can still get current account balances including orders placed at night with Lind on Line between 3:30 pm - 7:00 am.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:36 - ID#215235)
S & P Puts
There has been quite a discussion lately on this site and others about purchasing S & P puts when this wave of buying climaxes and the VIX nears 20 or below. I understand the basics of this strategy but do not know the particulars. I would appreciate any feedback regarding some of these questions. 1 ) Which is wiser, buying in the money or out of the money puts? 2 ) How far out should one buy the puts - Dec., 98, June, 99? 3 ) What is a fair price for S & P puts? 4 ) If the S & P should drop 100 pts., about how much profit per contract would the holder realize? 5 ) Are OEX puts just as viable an option as the S & P? ( I used to play these and made some big money ) . 6 ) What other advice or information might help me to better understand this play? Thanks.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:36 - ID#30116)
Collection for the homeless...Bubba and
whomever. Afterall, the Clintons don't own a home. Where will they go? Everytime Bubba gets in to trouble he comes here, Massachusetts. Oh no! A terrible thought has come to ............. No, not here!?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:39 - ID#242303)
I knew..
that as soon as Puetz forecast a collapse in the Dow starting this week, it was a sign that a rally was in.

Puetz contrarian indicator par excellence.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:40 - ID#255226)
As I'm typing this I'm very close to getting short the SnP at 1110. If filled and not run out I'd also be looking for 1050, maybe slightly lower.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:41 - ID#410194)
Puetz, last year when you confirmed that the greatest crash of all time has started, the Dow exploded to the upside for several months not too soon after.

Do you think the same could happen this time around or do you still believe that you are on track with your latest predictions and if so, why?

Your comments would be appreciated, thanks.

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 14:38
Puetz ( ) ID#170235:
The bear market in stocks has been confirmed. DJIA has decisively broken below 7500-7600 support. I'm am now in a maximum bearish position. Greatest crash of all time has started. It's very possible that the big circuit breaker at DJIA -350 will kick in soon. Watch what happens when the bulls get trapped into the market and can't get out

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:13
Puetz ( Stock Market Crash ) ID#222167:
BugAl: I'm predicting a big down-move in the DJIA this week
based on time-cycles from previous crashes. I have studied
all of the major market crashes since the Tulip-mania -- in
great detail.

They all follow very similar patterns. I believe it has to
do with the patterns of crowd-psychology -- so it's more of
a psychological study than an economic or financial study.
Where manias end, crashes begin.

It is based on these patterns, that I predict a huge down
move this coming week. I think the DJIA will decline by at
least 400 points, but it could be down as much as 1400 by
next friday. We shall see next weekend.


Steve Puetz

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:41 - ID#30116)
I can see it now, trench warfare. Accusations fly against the White House and then those FBI files start to pop up.... One thing leads to another and... Finally we see a Waco type scenario being played out on the White House front lawn as the Marines are ordered to assault the White House and 'evict' the occupants... :- ) )

Stranger things have been known to happen........

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:41 - ID#290281)
Bad for Canadian Dollar ... Strategic Investment
Wayner ... Canada has borrowed in US$. ( provinces, utilities and corporations have floated debt in US$ ) . Provinces and utilities have gorged on this feast.
Provinces, like Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and BC have large outstanding US$ obligations. Utilities like Hydro Quebec, Ontario Hydro and BC Hydro are also exposed to large US $ borrowings. Those large US$ debt obligations will soon become a millstone around their necks. As awareness grows of Cdn$ vulneerability and those borrowers rush to hedge, the hedging should cause a further decline in the exchange rate.
The Bank of Canada is an ostrich. The BOC considered it prudent to depress Canadian short term interest rates below the corresponding US rate for past 2 1/2 years. Now Canada is paying the consequences. The Cdn$ is eroding steadily, despite concerted intervention. The BOC is losing about 5% of its remaining currency reserves each week in an ongoing, futile attempt to stem the persistent decline of the CDN$. The forcast is that Canadian short term rates and bond yields will soon rise sharply, thereby crashing the Toronto equity market and choking the Canadian economy. They are FORCASTING THAT THE CANADIAN DOLLAR WILL OVERSHOOT TO THE DOWNSIDE.. more than anyone currently anticipates. If and when that happens, FX reserves ( currently $22 billion ) will quickly vanish and Canada will become the latest supplicant to plead for IMF bailout. As in Asia earlier this year, Canadian interest rates will have to be raised dramatically to support the currency. It's the free market revenge on Canadian policy makers who have maintained an over-stimulative monetary plicy these last few years and have thus undermined their own currency.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:42 - ID#207145)
When the Lights All Went Out In Massachusets.
Everyone was pink but you couldn't tell.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:42 - ID#263254)
24k and Auric
24K; visit and go to food and storage, which will give you tips on everything related to same but don't overlook the value of the other threads.

Also use this for additional information on storing the food you do buy-look into mylar bags, oxygen absorbers and super pails-

Auric; just a quick question for you not practice cut
and paste? This technique should eliminate ALL but the rare occasion
on the necessity for typing URL's. Excuse me, if this suggestion is
not needed, and hope it helps if it is. Cheers.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:45 - ID#288186)
APH; Thanks. Actually I'm still at work tonight. I had downloaded the Lind-Online
program about a month ago and then forgot to come back to it. I get
the message "unable to connect". I called tech support and got their
"our hours are..." message, but it added that if you get the "unable
to connect" message, go to so & so web page to download patch. I
went there, and there's no patch to download. I'll call tech support
tomorrow to get Lind-Online running.

I've been following your trades closely, and am similarly placed
about like your positions, except I trade the E-mini as opposed to
the actual S&P. I have learned the hard way ( as most do ) that trading
futures can cost you dearly. I got into Gold futures back when they
were floating around 395.00///You can guess how it's been. But I'm
still in...hoping and thinking PM's will have their day! Thanks,Foxman

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:48 - ID#373403)
seems very pleased that the president got away with adultery and perjury. I wonder what Stratfor was alluding to regarding Japan/China.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:49 - ID#30116)
Final message for the night. I tried to sell short the Dow via DIA ( Diamonds ) the other day. I had a MARKET order open for six minutes with no fill and a rising DOw. I finally cancelled the order. Go figure. Was someone asleep at the switch ( besides me ) or was it something else? Good night all............................

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:51 - ID#242303)
Envy, sine you asked.
Internet stocks.

I think it makes more sense to short or buy puts on stocks that you know in your heart are overly priced than just buy an acroos the board short like an S & P etc

I learnt this to my cost. After the first quarter I thought the techs would be hurting from SE asia. I bought market puts, the semi-conductors got massacared, but the over-all market didn't move much and my puts deteriorated rapidly and I had to bale out.

Anything internetty is rediculously priced. They aint going to be paying a dividend for a long long time. In a good correction they have along way to fall. ?Amazon, Netscape, Excite.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:54 - ID#31876)
Tolerant1, EB, ForkLift, Envy, and Others
Thank you for your congratulations! And a special thank you to
Bart who provides us with a forum to benefit all of our children,
grandchildren, and some of us ( who are lucky enough ) to have

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:55 - ID#229207)
Deflation, deflation, deflation -- Does this mean cheaper gold?
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady
As U.S. Slowdown Gets Clearer

Federal Reserve policy makers kept short-term interest rates steady amid signs the continued economic turmoil in Asia is slowing at least some parts of the U.S. economy.

Tuesday's decision by the Federal Open Market Committee left the target for the federal-funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, at 5.5%. The rate was last changed in March 1997 when the Fed increased the target by .25 percentage point. The discount rate, which the Fed charges banks, hasn't changed since January 1996 when the Fed lowered it to 5% from 5.25%. As is customary, Tuesday's decision was signaled only by a brief statement that the FOMC had finished its meeting.

The decision was widely expected. The economy stomped on the brakes in the second quarter, growing at just a 1.4% annual rate after careering along at 5.5% for the first three months of the year.

Recent economic reports have indicated that despite strong consumer spending and labor shortages in many parts of the country, inflation has been a no-show throughout the supply chain, with Asia's crisis curtailing demand for American products, trimming supply and production costs and sending low-priced goods into U.S. markets. The trade gap with Asia continued to balloon in June, although the overall trade deficit narrowed ( see related article ) .

Recent polls of 51 economists found not a single one expecting the Fed to make a move on Tuesday.

For more information on central-bank policy see the Federal Reserve Monitor page.

The U.S. economy is exhibiting a "sort of a balance of risks ... the risks of growing too fast versus the risks of growing too slow," David Jones, chief economist for Aubrey G. Lanston & Co., said Tuesday before the FOMC met. Lanston is a primary dealer in the U.S. Treasurys market.

Some economists believed that the Fed would change its policy stance to neutral, meaning its next move could as easily be toward decreasing interest rates as increasing them.

In March Fed officials, worried about the tight job market, agreed the next change in rates was most likely to be toward tighter monetary policy. The Fed's current policy stance won't be known until the meeting's minutes are released in more than a month, however.

"The economy has really changed a lot in the last 60 to 90 days, not so much domestically, but the growth prospects for the rest of the world look worse," economist Paul Getman of Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa., said before the FOMC completed its meeting.

Many economists have said that further turmoil in Asia, and now Russia, could slow U.S. economic growth too much.

"I believe the Fed will eventually have to cut U.S. interest rates, but they're not ready to do that yet," economist Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch said early Tuesday.

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Copyright  1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 22:58 - ID#219363)
Yeah, way over-priced. I keep hearing that it's not a good idea to short them for some reason, I'm not exactly sure why they're saying that - maybe because the volatility is so high that you can get "infinitely burned", I'm not sure. I'm not even sure who "they" are actually. The "true value" of Amazon, even when it does make money, can't be more than a few bucks a share.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:00 - ID#242303)
I don't agree. Canada has/is getting it's fiscal house in order. Two years ago this time Canadian bonds dollar were flavor of the day, because the budget deficit end was in sight. Now IT IS at an end, and we are being hit by the specs.

Don't blame the BOC for not increasing interest rates killing off jobs and investment just so some overpayed bank traders gambling with other people's money will be happy to leave their cash in Canadian Dollars for five minutes.

Let the dollar drop so low that the US Feds will be forced to pull it up or face the prospect of manufacturing touriam going north and nothing coming south but goods. Sounds good to me.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:02 - ID#394240)
is now in the process of forming. Once formed, the market will plunge like BC's presidency!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:03 - ID#347447)
Puetz' Puts
If Steve could just short tulips, he'd make a lot of money

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:05 - ID#347447)
BUGs, it's UCMJ.

And btw, you CAN'T be LGB. Cycles? Heads and shoulders? I know LGB, and he's no technical analyst.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:06 - ID#242303)
@ Envy
I agree- it takes balls bigger than mine.

I wouldn't even consider it until I thought a good going correction was in. They will probably hold out initially ( as they did with the most recent drop ) when they were just down single percentages from their highs ) , if the market keeps dropping then they wil eventually start to plumet.

Till then putting money down against them is betting against the rabid optimists who think 50 times earnings is cheap!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:08 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update
Japan and China Brace for New Banking Crises

According to Agence France Presse, Taku Yamasaki, a senior official of the
Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told Indonesia's President on
Tuesday that Japan's economy would face its "most serious crisis" within a
week. The story was also carried by the Japanese Kyodo and Jiji news
services. While Yamasaki did not specify what crisis was brewing, he is
quoted as having said that "I contacted very important persons in the
Japanese government, and they said that they decided not to let ailing
major banks go bankrupt to avoid negatively influencing the economic
situation in the world, especially in Asia." An obvious inference to be
drawn is that some major Japanese banks will be facing a major cash flow
problem next week and may be unable to meet obligations. If this is the
case, the Japanese government is sending out a signal in financially
devastated Indonesia, telling the rest of Asia that the Japanese government
is prepared to bail out the banks, preventing bankruptcy.

Yamasaki's reassurance in anticipation of a crisis that has not yet
surfaced is more chilling than calming. Clearly, senior officials in the
Japanese government are aware of an impending crisis of substantial
proportions, such as the bankruptcy of some of Japan's major banking
institutions, and are trying to soften the shock. This is not the usual
Japanese style. Denial until the last possible moment has been the normal
operating procedure in Japan. Yamasaki appears to be trying to do damage
control in the ASEAN countries, attempting to reassure them and to limit
the effects of the crisis. As economic crises have become the norm in
Japan, Yamasaki's unusual warning indicates that Japan is facing a new
crisis of truly impressive magnitude.

Perhaps part of Japan's concerns were events in China. On Monday, China's
Ministry of Finance announced that they were issuing 270 million yuan
( about $32 billion at the official rate ) worth of special, 30-year, yuan-
denominated bonds, carrying an annual coupon of 7.2 percent. The purpose
of these bonds was to supply capital to the Industrial and Commercial Bank
of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Construction Bank of China,
and the Bank of China. The bonds were not to be sold to the general
public. Wang Wuhong, a Finance Ministry spokesman, pointed out that the
Ministry could not guarantee that the bond issue will enable the four banks
to meet the eight percent capital adequacy ratio set by the International
Bank of Settlements. According to Agence France Presse, these banks had
capital bases of four to five percent and at least 25 percent of their
loans were non-performing. The banks are also being pressured by the
government to write off bad loans, which involves foreclosure and other
aggressive collection efforts. As in other Asian countries, this action is
difficult to execute because of political and social implications.

At the same time, the People's Bank of China issued a circular urging all
banks to separate themselves from non-financial entities they owned. This
is a crucial step in saving the banking system, since there is a tendency
to support unprofitable linked businesses with favorable loans that are not
economically justified. This linkage between banks and non-financial
businesses has been a key element in the Asian meltdown, since banks'
irrational lending practices have undermined their stability. Of course,
this circular comes about five years too late. With a conservative count
of 25 percent non-performing loans, the damage has already been done.

Not surprisingly, China's Xinhua News Agency reported that Beijing banks
reported a 121.7 percent rise in sales of foreign currencies in the first
half of this year. Thus, we have the key elements of the Asian economic
crisis now clearly in view in China. First, Chinese banks cannot meet the
minimal IBS standards, even with massive infusions of capital. Second,
their non-performing loans stand at 25 percent. Third, the government is
trying, far too late, to get banks to sell off capital-draining assets.
Fourth, the government is trying to get banks to write off bad loans.
Finally, the price of the yuan is kept stable while the public is buying
foreign currency.

The Japanese and the Chinese are tied together now. If the Chinese were to
devalue suddenly, economies throughout Asia, including Japan, would be
devastated. If the Japanese weakened any further, the Chinese would be
forced to devalue. China has been warning Japan about this for the past
few weeks. The Japanese can hear the creaking sounds of China buckling
under the strain. The Chinese see an uncontrolled plummet in Japan's
economy, and are scrambling to do damage control, albeit too little and
much too late.

We believe that the next two weeks will be critical in the Asian crisis.
Japanese banks seem about to break. The Japanese government is going to
forced to save them. They will need to borrow money on the international
market to do so. That means that they will need to strengthen the yen. Of
course, strengthening the yen involves selling dollars, which undermines
their ability to borrow money. The pressure on China will increase. China
is trying to get its house in order, hoping to stabilize its banks in
anticipation of the crunch. Of course, their own banking crisis is far
greater than a $30 billion bond issue can handle.

A question arises: the Chinese have been defending the yuan with currency
controls. If Japan is facing its "most serious crisis" yet next week, is
there any way they can navigate through the treacherous waters without
imposing some sort of currency controls of their own? Given the magnitude
of their problems and their unwillingness to impose genuine, wrenching
controls, we are beginning to wonder if there is any way out, short of such
controls. And with the two largest Asian economies having controlled
currencies, what other Asian countries would follow suit? We note that
Yamasaki was in Indonesia when he made his dire prediction. Even if the
Japanese decide not to impose currency controls, the mere threat should
achieve what Japan wants most -- an American solution. The U.S. is
committed to the current monetary arrangements. If Yamasaki's crisis is as
serious as he is implying, the threat may not be as farfetched in a week as
it seems today.

That is speculation. What is not speculation is that the Japanese are
worried about something, or at least want the world to think they are
worried. We think it is a combination of a Chinese banking crisis and
Japanese bank bankruptcies, converging on each other. And that is a
radical event requiring radical solutions that leave Japan's internal
social and political arrangements intact. We are open to other
suggestions, but Japan does not seem to have many options.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:09 - ID#219363)
Yeah, I just checked. Amazon is at 128 and change, and you can't even get a January 40 PUT without shelling out 100 bucks. Everybody and his brother sees the doom of it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:10 - ID#229207)
Head and Shoulders? I keep hearing this. What's dandruff shampoo got to do with it?

Seriously, I've never understood this preoccupation with the shape of graphs. How does this, statistically speaking, help one predict anything?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:16 - ID#290281)
Wizened: I am only the messenger
Jim Davidson ( Strategic Investment ) also says "Canada's dollar has sunk dramatically during 1998. We expect it to sink further, as part of the second stage of the deflationary currency crisis that began last summer in Thailand. Look for the Bank of Canada to raise rates, as reserves are rapidly being depleted, and after a brief bounce, an extreme sell-off of the Canadian dollar by year's end."
I hope for Canada's sake you are right and Davidson is wrong. We miss all our Canadian friends who used to come to the US and now cannot come because of the Canadian dollar.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:16 - ID#219363)
You can get option prices from this site-

Just enter a stock ticker and it gives the the put/call prices out through about Feb and Mar. If you want something in 1999 or further, you have to check the "List all options and LEAPS for this underlying" box under where you type in the ticker. If you try to bring up a chart for, say, Amazon, you could crash your browser.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:17 - ID#347447)
The way I see it
We are in the fifth wave of a fifth, but in a corrective wave off the 4th. We've gone down 5 waves off a double bottom, and are now retracing, at minimum to 50%, unless we carry ahead through as the 5th of the 5th ( and the last ) in which case we make new highs, that head n' shoulders becomes just shampoo, and all the bears get faked out, become bulls, and then we hit the slide. If you look at puts overwhelming calls in S&P open interest these days, it is simply unimagineable that the bears are right, right at a market top. I do not accept that all those bears are about to make lots of money. The correction internal to the market has been around 20%. The leadership in this rally is the techs and "glamours" of this bull market. They are about to make new highs. The indexes will follow them up. The interest sensitive big caps have held up because interest is not a sensitive point. The whole world is going down the crapper and everyone knows it, but this is ALREADY discounted in the market. Even the gold market, sad to say. Stocks won't go down for the count, nor gold go up very much, until rates start to rise. Period.

Yawn. I'm getting sleepy. Off to read "The Sovereign Individual" so I can start dozing. Thanks Kevan.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:23 - ID#152163)
What happens to silver?
The post of ANOTHER's pal this evening about the confiscation/taxation to oblivion of gold mines when the eurodollar comes home to roost got me thinking: since silver is an industrial metal first and a monetary metal second, would the government nationalize silver as well? And what would be the "trigger" which will set this in motion? I have quietly been accumulating a bunch of silver and silver stocks with which I intend to liquidate my mortgage in the next don't suppose it would happen while silver is under $50 an ounce, do you? Just wondering...I only need $30 bucks or so and the farm is mine.

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:25 - ID#347447)
You are mixing apples & oranges.
Charts do not help you STATISTICALLY anything. They have nothing to do with "statistics" in the manner you are probably thinking of them. They are leetle peectures which show the character of the buying and selling and price movement. They show where resistance to higher, or lower prices tends to occur, and where and how price moves when it passes through those resistance layers. Charts work along magical "stress lines" that extend themselves like spider webs into the future time and space of the chart. These lines are plotted by connecting significant, and often subtle, peaks and valleys, etc. It is amazing, literally amazing, how these lines, when extended into the future on the graph, act as important support or resistance levels, and converging lines often illuminate coming tops and bottoms in both time and price level. It's like anything else though, ---you won't believe it if you don't understand it. And you won't understand it unless you learn it and practice it. It is an art - like Medicine, or Astrology.

You cannot comment on it intelligently until you have devoted yourself to the discipline. Then you will know, and not have to ask.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:26 - ID#268260)
Panda & Envy
Thanks for your insights and the site reference. Anything else you can tell me?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:26 - ID#242303)
@ Envy
How right you aare- there is no way to get in.

The stock went up $9 today ie more than a 1 year T-bill in one day.

The Sept 120 PUTS ( ie $8 out of the money ) are trading at 7 to - 8 bucks. Make sense of that!!

Mike Sheller
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:29 - ID#347447)
what happens to silver
A more intriguing question is how did you get the handle "what happens to silver?" Is this how you always post, or is the question tailored to each query you make? How do you do this? No - better not tell me. There are some things that should remain mysterious.

I'll give you the $30 if that's all it takes to, you'll pardon the expression, buy the farm.

Otherwise you'll have to wait for 2003-2005 for $30 silver, or above.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:29 - ID#424394)
It would be a shame for Goldbugs to go extinct
Simply because, in the haste to hoard more Gold,
they forgot the viddles and means to cook 'em
and the means to keep varmints out of the pantry.
My 22:16 was merely a bit of a warning to those
who think Gold {and Silver} are all they need
to survive the coming chaos, anarchy & armageddon.

Klinton can't give up before February 1999.
He has to put it off long enough for Gore to take office
after the halfway point in this term. That way the rest
of this term won't count as a "full term" and Gore will
get to run not only once for re-election - but twice.
Remember that very same question regarding LBJ?
LBJ decided to not to push it - he bowed out of the race.
But LBJ also had the flaming tire of Vietnam around his neck.
Would Gore turn down the opportunity to be President
FOR 9 YEARS and 11 MONTHS !!!!!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:30 - ID#219363)
Only other thing I can really tell you is this - 1 ) I have some puts that are out-of-the-money and into the distant future, 2 ) I only used money I don't mind losing, in fact, I've already "let it go" in my mind and don't expect to ever see it again, and 3 ) Everyone, and I mean even the options traders will tell you that no matter what you buy, you're going to lose, so keep that in mind.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:32 - ID#284255)
Pictures of truly loyal goldbugs
The photos are of the place-chosen by Tolerant ( Kevan ) , a lovely little
village on the Long Island sound - just caught a sunset, which I always enjoy.
The guys are Kevan in blue- Mike Sheller with glasses, and Bill from
Oregon, who came all the way for the weekend just to meet us all.

Swing Chart showing rampant accumulation

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:36 - ID#31867)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' and a gulp, and a sip of tea...from Me Mumm...
check your mail...heh...heh...heh...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:37 - ID#284255)
Investech advice
... sit back, relax, and watch from our defensive position. This rally could
easily carry into September. And after viewing technical action this week,
any changes to our portfolios are more likely to be with ADDING bear market

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:37 - ID#394240)
The YEN has put in a major top! China's threats to devalue if the Yen keeps depreciating against the dollar will force the Bank of Japan to sell Us paper and bail out its faltering economy! This will put severe pressure on US equities and will lead the US into a deep recession, if not depression! China will devalue anyway as recent flooding of the Yangtze will force China to spend its supposedly huge currency reserves on food and shelter and major infrastructure repair!
The results for Asia and Latin America are self-evident!

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:37 - ID#284255)
oleman . . For every buyer there is a seller. If you're long a put, and sell it
somebody bought it. All I know is that there aint never in my lifetime been
a time when the market reversed downward immediately after 2 days of spike
in put volume. Could happen, but it aint the way to bet. It says we'll
probably rally till all but the "toughest" bears will be putless when it
caves in again, just like they were in July. The depth of the plunge on
globex prior to Mon opening allows for a rally all the way to the old high.
I doubt it----I wont be long this time when we get there----but it is
possible. At this rate it wouldnt take long.: )

oleman . . Anything's possible. With the Mc Osci at the depths its at, the rally
HAD to be violent. That's why I said last week that we'd see 10/20-21/97
multiplied by 2 when the rally started. Well, 60 handles in 2 days aint
QUITE souble the October rally, but it's close. But that big 2 day rally in
October drove the put buying to the basement. This action of the last 2 days
is unprecedented in my experience. As we fell further and further the last
couple of weeks, and nobody rushed to the put window, I became more and more
negative. When the started buhying them on Thur and Fri, I saw the rally
coming, and said so, but I did not expect the rally to be so totally
disbelieved as it is.

oleman . . A spike in put volume is not a bearish omen.: )

oleman . . When the majority gets bearish, its short term bullish. Especially
if I am one of the majority.: )

oleman . . Whenever I'm in the majority, I'm usually wrong. Thems the facks
jack. But I WILL trade against my own feelings. Gotta be able to do that to
survive. The strongest statement I ever made here was Sun nite/Mon morn when
i said that only a FOOL would buy it.

oleman . . Welp, I'm goin flat on either a gap up or an early rally tomorrow. Then
we'll see what the pullback looks like. If today's low holds on the next
pullback, its a heckuva buy...........gone for the nite..........

oleman . .
ps: I cant get real excited about gettin short til soup and orange are
"voices in the wilderness" again.: ) gone.

soup . . voices in the wilderness? whatever that is, will probably be sooner rather
than later

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:41 - ID#373403)
Milton Friedman
"ABOLISH THE IMF!" Make that man president! Wait, did he get blowjobs from anyone besides his wife?

Also, where can I get overnight stock trading quotes?

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:43 - ID#31867)
Of a Clinton defender...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
From the neck up James Carville should NOT have been circumcised

El Borak__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:44 - ID#173274)
Mike Sheller (What Happens to Silver?)
Nope, my lack of a handle is solely related to newbie trouble. I think they'll give me one eventually. Of course, if the rest of you want to pony up $30 each, I can forget about the market, I suppose...

I'm serious about the question, though. I don't have a lot of interest in saving for Uncle Sam.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:45 - ID#411259)
..... sdrawkcaB toN .....

?laG UB that sI
lA guB spahrep rO
( yug rehtona seh - lA giB toN )
eh, ykrul ydlog tub enon siT
( neve sdraw ) kcab uoy ees ot yppah yreV

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:45 - ID#229207)
Mike Sheller
I can easily see us getting into the kind of argument I sometimes have with my wife on the subject of Western vs Eastern medicine. She's Chinese and believes in Reflexology, the "science" build around the theory that, for various inexplicable reasons, you can cure various ills by rubbing your feet. She also believes that you can make the house warm faster by turning the thermostat up higher. So I guess I'm a stickler for understanding the underlying mechanism of a method of prediction and a nonbeliever in magic. Magic is for children. And the best test of one's true understanding of anything is one's abilty to explain it to someone who does not understand it.

I like the idea that drawing lines through a graph tells you something about what the graph will look like later, because it's appealing on many levels, but I don't understand why or if this works. If you're so inclined, I'd appreciate hearing your take on it.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:46 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
Cef broke down today, I would guess it will go down and test it's low in
dec/97 of 3.50. That tells me gold going down further. Wish I had some
money to buy more cef when it hits 3.50. sure like to be able to buy
bullion silver and gold at that price.

El Borak__A
(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:48 - ID#173274)
A Handle, by Golly
Well, what do you know, I have a handle after all. My original was "en", but I think someone deleted it before posting to the internet. Sorry, vronsky, couldn't help it...

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:52 - ID#237164)
@ Silverbaron, abt derivatives
Thank you for the reference URL.

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:56 - ID#229207)
They're having a party in Asia today. Hangover next week?
Hong Kong Hang Seng ^HSI 11:58PM 7529.87 +318.95 +4.42%
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 11:59PM 15392.51 +328.72 +2.18%
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 10:31PM 302.93 +11.78 +4.05%

(Tue Aug 18 1998 23:58 - ID#411259)
..... Stars in His Eyes and His Mind .....

For all those who doubt Mikey
Be not lulled nor be thee unsavory
Or sling not arrows or eh slings
This is a fellow who indeedy knows
What the leetle peectures mean