Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 01:54 - ID#17077)
The Deception of the Gold Short.
A common attack upon gold is the notion that, since most Americans do not use the metal in daily affairs, therefore lack of familiarity, availability, etc. dooms the metal to the trashbin of history.

"Paper currency and digital money are pandemic," the gold short declares, "ergo the American public could NEVER transact in gold again. The public does not know what it is or how to use it or where to find it."

Unfortunately, this argument is both specious and nonsensical.

On a micro level, gold may have little value in America. However, on a macro level amongst nations, gold retains significant value. It is the only international currency today containing historic, intrinsic value ( as opposed to value based upon the good faith of a go*ernment ) .

I well remember a trip I took to a country one time whose paper currency experienced regular and radical shifts of "value." In that particular country, the unofficial transactional currency was the American Dollar.
The majority of citizens did NOT hold American currency. Rather, they held bushels of their own country's volatile currency. A small black market existed in which American Dollars were king. Any citizen of the country who wished to obtain real, vital goods for reasonable prices was compelled to learn about the US Dollar, enter the Black Market, transact in American Dollars, and discover how to obtain the American currency...otherwise, the unfortunate citizens who did not rapidly acquaint themselves with the US Dollar were left to suffer great dearth owing to the pathetic purchasing power of their native currency.

Analogously, the day the American Dollar develops a "crisis in Faith" and ceases to maintain its tremendous purchasing power will be the day that the citizens will seek out another currency or transactional medium to enable them to obtain real, vital goods. Whatever this new transactional medium is, Americans will be compelled to learn what it is, how to use it, and where to obtain it. Most Americans cannot conceive of such a radical New World. In a country renowned for notably dismal, parochial education in international matters...where most citizens know only one language...where most citizens would be hard pressed to name the capital cities of more than one or two foreign countries...where most citizens are still nonconversant with the near universal usage of the Metric System...then naturally, the average American cannot conceive of a world in which he is COMPELLED to learn something new and foreign -- specifically, a whole new currency!!

The odds favor that, even if gold does not end up becoming the new global currency of choice, nevertheless, it will likely serve ( at the very least ) as an invaluable bridge to the creation of a new global reserve currency and/or currencies.

The reason: With the dissipation of American Dollar hegemony, naturally, we will witness tremendous upheaval. Gold always thrived in chaos and there is little reason to expect otherwise during the next storm.



(Thu Aug 20 1998 02:26 - ID#17077)
Loss of Faith in Clinton is the Final Nail in the Coffin.
Over the past year, I wrote often about the THREE imperative factors that would precipitate a major upswing in the price of GOLD.

1 ) Equities Bear Market.
2 ) Bonds Bear Market.
3 ) US Dollar Bear Market.

Many times, I stressed that all points of the preceding triangle must occur simultaneously in order to trigger a major GOLD bull. The reason: the US Dollar had supplanted GOLD this decade as kind of "new, ersatz gold."

Although, occasionally we have witnessed the phenomenon of weak equities markets occurring along with weak bond markets, nevertheless, we have yet to really see a notable, substantive weakening in the US Dollar.

The US Dollar has remained unusually strong over the past few years.

But people should note: the US Dollar is ultimately a paper debt instrument backed by THE GOOD FAITH OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT.

Now, with the revelations of blatant lying and deception on the part of the American president, the good faith of the American government has devolved into a kind of oxymoron.

As long as Clinton remains in power, the good faith of the American government will be questioned by the majority of its trading partners...not to mention its enemies!

Unfortunately, the odds favor that the new direction of the American Dollar will be a slowly escalating downward spiral. Yes, it's true that America has been a beneficiary of foreign flight capital to date. However, this flight has been based on the unequivocal belief that America is a safe, secure, country...a good place to do business...where America's politicians and business leaders can ALWAYS be trusted -- especially relative to other countries leaders..

When the Chief Executive of the USA proves himself to unworthy of trust...when rampant cynicism spreads like a wildfire across both America and the globe, then all hell may break loose in the extant global financial order.

Unfortunately, it may already be too late to repair the damage done via the installation of a new President.

What is the consequence for Gold?

The Gold rocket is on the launch's engines are beginning to roar. The countdown can be delayed for a while but the Law of Perpetual Motion favors the rocket will be launched at any moment.



John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:03 - ID#24135)
I dont know ..
George was a one off .. Cant help you there ..
How about 200 Tutzi mercenaries with AKs, 800 rounds
each, boots, uniforms, all presssed and showered.
Speak French and Swahili. FOB Dar-es-Salaam?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:37 - ID#435212)
John Disney__A (I dont know ..)

And to think that over the last month we were offered a gold project at Kilo Moto in eastern Zaire.........

Wonderful place for a holiday......



Greenstone Gold__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:44 - ID#435212)
And now for something completely different........


The Al Gore story.........

Most certainly a "horror story"..........Gore..........

Bring back Slick BC, "all" is forgiven......



(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:46 - ID#412286)
Wonder what ole RR has to say about the situation?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:50 - ID#286199)
yesterday's gold drop
From the WSJ

GOLD: Futures fell at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, with an earlier rally knocked down by producer selling, traders said. The December contract fell $1.80 to $287.20 a troy ounce. Traders said weakness in the South African rand and Australian dollar led producers in those countries to lock in prices.

CRB it could be Russian gold lending.

It is funny how analysts quote "traders" as sources and reach very different conclusions. Where is Glenn?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 06:52 - ID#348127)

For just as governmet is scripted for the people, so is the financial arena. Every little move BC makes has been carefully orchestrated so as to lead or mis-lead the people. Come on now, do we really believe BC has squat to do with the economy. Depressed gold prices are just another part of the act.When the paper tiger burns, gold and silver will soar.And she will surely burn within the next year.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 07:09 - ID#26793)
Kinross news

(Thu Aug 20 1998 07:16 - ID#26793)
Kinross news, much more detail

(Thu Aug 20 1998 07:30 - ID#344205)
@Donald 4:45
I saw your 4:45 about Venezuela denying a devaluation.
You can 100% be assured that there WILL be a mega devaluation shortly after December. The exchage is sliding daily, and being propped up by the Central Bank, which obtains it's funds from the goverment oil monopoly PDVSA ( Petroleos de Venezuela ) . With the oil prices bottmoed out, it will be a very close race to see which comes first....the elections or a decapitalized CB......but BOTH will happen VERY soon. As to devaluation of the bolivar, it is really FAR FAR overvalued, as I have not seen since many years seeing minimum wages and the price of POLAR beer being so high in U.S. dollar terms. As I'm presently at our Miami home and have not seen the exchange in the last few weeks, I believe it is around 565:1, when it really should be around 1000:1. Most Venezuelans with any kind of money have allready taken it out of the country ( to the U.S. paper, of course ) last month. It almost caused a run on the CB, and the Ven goverment is printing money like it's going out of style.
In short, you can't really devalue something that's already overvalued.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 07:44 - ID#432157)

Lets hope our Supreme Court is kind to us and wants to keep this country whole. Does not give in to the Bouchard types. ( Sorry off topic but I had to say it )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 07:59 - ID#286199)
Bloomberg news on the Yen and Japanese economy

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:01 - ID#286199)
Inflation in the U.K.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:22 - ID#153102)
A shortage of mercenaries is not our problem here.
Our problem resolves to too much power of attorney. And remember they don't it have unless somebody gave it.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:27 - ID#153102)
@Does anybody Know which one of the M- Codes is used for a Devaluation ?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:44 - ID#412172)
Fed to print for Y2K
Only a precaution, of course!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:58 - ID#286230)
geoffs: After all the Clinton chat; US Constitution, tax system, politics, history, Ruby Ridge, racial problems, currency foreign policy---2 lines on Canadian matters is not off topic esp when it will effect the C$ one way or the other.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 08:59 - ID#224363)
Metals are a popping so far today
At least according to Kitco quotes.

Gold up $2
Silver up $.10

Nice start to the day

Enjoy !!!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:01 - ID#31876)
Gold Has Started the Day Up $2.40 (Wish I Could Say $24.00)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:02 - ID#242325)
Ses rally ending very soon. Then a steep drop. I'm sure Realistic does not agree. But we will soon see if the world realistic really has become synonomous with "buy the dips forever".

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:04 - ID#242325)
Gold's rally today another example of the stocks moving ahead of bullion.

for 8/20/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/19/98 close: 10.12

Return on current trade: -1.17%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 9.54%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -0.33%

Market Commentary:

We told subscribers Wednesday that we looked for the rally from the
8/17 lows to weaken and become choppy from Wednesday until expiration
Friday. Wednesday's trading definitely fit the bill, as the market
seesawed most of the day before selling off to end the day slightly
down. We continue to look for the end of this rally in the 8/20-8/24
timeframe. The SPX 1100-1110 area and DJIA 8700-8800 area is providing
stiff resistance to this advance. We think this resistance will hold.
The market may make one more attempt at the top of these ranges by the
end of the week before turning down sharply. We believe that the current
rebound rally will provide one of the best selling and shorting
opportunities in recent memory, as we feel the next downleg will be very
severe, and have a minimum downside target of 7500 DJIA by
Our proprietary buy/sell indicator is still within 1-2 days striking
distance of a sell signal. We think odds are very high that we will get
that sell signal on Friday. Market internals appear to have peaked for
this rally as the new high vs. new low situation and market breadth have
both started deteriorating again. New lows increased to 159 Wednesday
from Tuesday's 151, and new highs decreased dramatically Wednesday to 27
from the 56 seen Tuesday. Breadth also deteriorated with Decliners
beating out Advancers by a count of 1755 to 1211. Another day of
weakening breadth and the McClellan Oscillator will drop back below the
zero line, providing a sure sign that this is a bear market rally.
Volume was lackluster again, at 634 million shares. This also suggests
that the current rally is a corrective phase within the dominant bear
Short-term sentiment has not yet become overly bullish, which is
supportive of some further rally in the very near-term. The OEX put/call
ratio closed at 1.15 a neutral reading. We would like to see a reading
below 1.0 to signal an overly bullish stance by speculators, and thus
indicate the end of this rally phase. Also the Rydex ratio remains
stubbornly high at 80%. We would also like to see this ratio drop below
50% to confirm overly bullish sentiment. So, our short-term sentiment
gauges are still arguing for some additional upside for this move, but
we expect no more than a few days more.
We remain short the market via our current Ursa trade. We see very
little upside potential remaining for this bear market rally. Once this
rally ends, ideally around Dow 8800 on 8/21, the ensuing sell-off should
be of massive proportions. In fact we are looking at the strong
potential for a market crash to occur in the 9/14-9/21 timeframe.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:18 - ID#286230)
Could you post your e-mail again.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:23 - ID#227228)

Surely you are not basing the idea of a "crash" on the Hi/Lo indicator and breadth alone? What else do you see to make you believe disaster is around the corner? Thanks.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:26 - ID#30116)
Russian bank failures?
Now there's a surprise. Let's see. Clinton in trouble ( ?! ) , Mike Barnicle resigns, ALGore in Howareyou, and now Russian boys saying that some banks will fail in a 'few days'. Hmmmmm. GO GOLD!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:27 - ID#410194)
@Old Gold/George Cole
Funny you mentionned the "buying the dips" thing this morning...

When Gold was above 330:

Date: Thu Oct 09 1997 12:17
George Cole ( market action ) ID#430205:

Gold stocks holding up well ( so far ) in view of $3.00 drop in bullion. As I have said several times, this is the time to be buying the dips. Very dangerous to chase rallies at this stage -- especially when upside volume is lacking

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:28 - ID#30116)
From CBS Marketwatch....


(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:29 - ID#208393)
Gold Demand Up 50% from last quarter
This must have been mentioned but it's worth another post:

"Gold demand in the second quarter of 1998 recovere sharply from the depressed conditions of the first quarter as the massive dishoarding in South-East Asia and South Korea came to an end. Total demand in the countries monitored by the World Gold Council was 634 tonnes, 9% below the record second quarter demand in 1997 but more than 50% above the level of the first quarter of this year."

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:31 - ID#30116)
I would be ecstatic if GCZ8 took out $295 today....... Well, I can dream, can't I???? :- )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:40 - ID#227228)
Don't know about today for $295, but the lovely little trendline break on the Xau certainly lends credence to the idea of some kind of a bottom being put in here. Whether it is long or short term, something is definitely happening.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:42 - ID#331387)
Chiina's foreign currency reserves
I believe I saw someone mention that China would devalue because of their
holding of yen which are depreciating. Would I rather hold currency in the largest creditor country in the world or $$$$$$$ -the largest debtor country in the world ?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:46 - ID#347267)
End of the bull

Apologies for repeat of Old Gold's Schepler comments:
Schepler: 8/19
"We remain short the market via our current Ursa trade. We see very
little upside potential remaining for this bear market rally. Once this
rally ends, ideally around Dow 8800 on 8/21, the ensuing sell-off should
be of massive proportions. In fact we are looking at the strong
potential for a market crash to occur in the 9/14-9/21 timeframe."

Favors: 8/18
"As far as how far this rally could go the averageretracement has been 62% . A 62% retracement here could carrythe Dow up near 8975 intraday. But we have no projectionsthat high yet.The highest projection at this point calls for8860 plus or minus 59 points intraday. Short term traders we want you to sell longs if the Dow reaches 8807 on a print basis. Stock traders and mutual fund switchers you are still in cash. We cannot count on this rally going high enough or lasting long enough to make it worth your while to go long.Our primary goal for all subscribers is to go 100% short asclose to the top of this rally as we can get. We will give you a list of stocks to short and we want mutual fund switchers to go long the Rydex Ursa Fund when the time comes.We also want you to go short the Dow Diamonds.One thing thatis very clear is that if the Dow breaks 8263 intraday anytime from here on the secondary rally will be over and the next major wave down will be underway. Our bare minimum target forthe next wave down is still 7390, and that is just a minimum target. We believe the Dow will ultimately fall much below 7390 after this rally peaks."

My GM comment:
General Motors, as a belwether, ( thanks to Aurator I now can spell it and know the origin, which is significant ) is a the critical neckline level of a six month long head and shoulders formation. A close at or below 66 will confirm this negative top, and indicate a minimum target on the downside of 55. See:

IMHO, this will be one of the final nails in the coffin of this bull.

Kinross Gold KGC appears to be gathering itself for an up move.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:48 - ID#432157)
CANADA--Thank GOD. Our Supreme Court DID NOT Stab US IN THE BACK

Our Constitution DOES Mean SOMETHING .TRUTH will prevail .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:49 - ID#266105)

Those World Gold Council demand figures if credible are the
most meaningful data of recent amongst the metatwaddle. Asians
are buying again whether because of or despite woes.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:53 - ID#347267)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:55 - ID#57232)
All: I may regret my long position in the equity markets if WJC does not emerge out of the doghouse in a few days. Usually his spin doctors start repairing his image when the feeding frenzy fades. My guess is that the US markets churn a bit for the next few days, but they do not go down substantially. By the end of this week if WJC's fortunes improve, we will probably rally into Labor day holidays. If not -- the US markets are weaker than I thought they were. Hard to believe the US markets will go down substantially with all of the 'flight to safety' business going on -- despite the WJC mess. Once the flight to safety fades, the US markets will begin to fade, and follow the rest of the crowd.

Gold: Could be that Russia has sold/loaned all the gold they can, and that gold will go up for a while. Certainly Venezuela can do nothing to the gold market -- they don't have any gold to sell, IMHO. The wild cards are China and Japan. My guess is they are pooling their huge trade-related US dollar reserves, and are selling them like crazy. That Japanese bank business sounds like an attempt to convince the markets that the Japanese ( and Chinese? ) have the situation well under control, and are bailing out key banks. Probably no disaster here for at least a few weeks, as the Japanese leaders are announcing their activities. I would be more worried about the times they say nothing.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 09:58 - ID#348286)
@Quebec Separatists
To Hell with the Quebec separatists, they have been screaming for a fight for 30 years, and Canada should no longer back down!
Either you are a country, or not, and you can't be both.
Anybody familiar with the Quebec economy knows the damage this has caused, and how poor the people there have become relative to Ontario and the West.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:00 - ID#427357)
Monetary Smoke and Mirrors - Devaluation in Russia

panda ( Russian bank failures? ) & panda ( From CBS Marketwatch.... )

Dr Paul Hein has done it again. He employs simple common-sense logic to define the word "devaluation." The value loss of a currency is seen in a new light.

The deterioration of the ruble is generating a lot of solicited and unsolicited advice. Much of it concerns devaluation, which the Russians are, so far, resisting. After all, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea devaluated, and their financial situations are still miserable.

So how can you "devalue" modern money, like the ruble? You can't. What is meant is not devaluation, but an altered exchange rate.

Dr. Hein provides solid argument that simple "devaluation" of the rouble will NOT be the cure-all to Russia's myriad problems.

As usual you need delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:03 - ID#24135)
Good genes
to all ..
Believe son's call of a yen top
at 146 was top stuff..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:05 - ID#147201)
JTF re email
Did you get my reply? Nothing yet, Charlie

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:09 - ID#284275)
@Aurator - oink, oink.

Got your pig. 'Tis beautiful. Still stuck in land of trafic, fish and so many unfinished bridges. ( And, I might add, with due respect to any lurking Koreans, the most obstinate negotiators I have ever encountered - truly bureacratic, extremely frustrating. ) Don't know when I am out of here. Hopefully tommorrow. Will arrange transport when back in Canada.


Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:10 - ID#347267)
I certainly respect your opinion. The market has certainly confounded me for the last year and a half. However, IMHO the "flight to safety" you mention has ALREADY started to fade. The apparent top now in for the Dollar/Yen is probably a sign that this is the case. Suggest that you exercise caution and watch your long market holdings carefully and at least twice a day. Best Regards; Mountain Bear

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:12 - ID#208393)
Go Canada!
United we stand!
I don't care how it will affect the market or the C$. All Canadians should celebrate this decision.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:13 - ID#284275)
@Aurator - Lost your email (hence posting here - in case you were wondering.)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:15 - ID#286230)
Supreme Court Decision

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:17 - ID#427357)
Gold Reaches Critical Support - Near-term Turnaround Expected

One of the few bold analysts who CORRECTLY & TIMELY called the beginning of the Bear Market in stocks, NOW foresees a BOUNCE IN GOLD. Clif Droke's technical analysis makes him cautiously short-term Bullish on Gold .

Droke asserts " We believe gold has reached a critical major support level and its action over the next one-to-two weeks will determine whether it will break firmly beneath this level or rise to short-term highs."

His detailed explanation of the included Candle-Stick Chart is as informative as it is educational in chart reading.

See Droke's report at the following URL. It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:20 - ID#208393)
@GSP Bug - re. crosses
Another good example of a 1 million share cross for GEO today. They managed to do it at 1.35 when the bid was 1.40. How is that possible?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:25 - ID#57232)
WJC Polls remarkably favorable
All: He committed perjury, but all is well with the world, so it is ok. Oh well -- I guess honesty is not really an issue -- just the economy. What really worries me is that you can trust an honest person to do the right thing during a crisis. But, what about a dishonest one? Which sides interests will he support? Ours or theirs? And -- the leader of the US has a moral responsibility to the people of the US -- at the minimum as an example to the rest of the World. What value is there to our 'moral' leadership in ensuring peace in the world if the morals of our leader are in question. We must be the laughing stock of the world.

We are not talking about the kinds of single partner affairs that most former presidents have had -- we are talking about indiscriminate sexual activity, and then lying about it. This is separate from all the other XXXgate scandals.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:27 - ID#334219)
Kitcat - GEO cross.
Very simple...Bunting was the broker. They simply filled the bids down to $1.35

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:31 - ID#57232)
You bet!
Mtn Bear: I did not know about the China/Japan business, and did not expect the bad press about WJC's speech on monday. You are right -- I am checking daily. My gold stock holdings are comparable to my market longs ( mostly oil and retail funds ) -- have been burned too many times to add to the gold stocks right now. I may regret this latter decision in a few days.

Are you aware of the holiday mania effect -- Fosback noted this years ago? The markets tend to go up before major holidays, like Labor day. If the markets go down this year before Labor day, that will be a bad sign indeed.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:32 - ID#238422)
Brother Vronsky, I did not read Dr.Hein's ( ? ) article
on devaluation of ruble, so may be he mentioned the
MAIN thing about it - Russia is importing most of the
stuff it needs, for US$. That is why devaluation was
a tremendous threat to the pocket of the average
Russian citizen. Devaluation happened because Russian
bank refused to support ruble any more by wasting
hard currency reserves. And here is a catch:

Russian Central Bank CARES much more about it's US$
and gold reserves than about ruble. They spent some dollars,
trying to support the ruble, it did not work, they said:
"Screw it, why in the hell should we waste
what we value most of all - US$"...
and now they switched responsibility to deal with this mess
to 1. Russian citizens and
2. Western governments...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:34 - ID#208393)
There were, and still are unfullfilled bids at 1.40 since opening. Shouldn't these have bee disposed of first? ( Sorry for being obtuse. )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:37 - ID#373284)
WJC was a dirtbag yesterday........................................
and nothing has changed since...nothing...that bastard is spending my money...FH...................

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:40 - ID#57232)
E Mail
chas: Thought so. My computer indicates that it went out. I will post again. Guess there is one lost permanently in the AEther. Not even y2k yet.

Just a thought -- think all of those lost messages and lost packages end up feeding the free energy ( zero-point energy ) ? I guess a big one is airline baggage.

I always wondered what the energy source might be ( *grin thing* ) .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:40 - ID#31876)
Mtn Bear
When I discuss precious metals with one of my sons ( he's a
bigger gold bug than me ) , one comment he uses, "But, Dad,
they're only paper losses." My retort is something like, "I
hate the word 'paper', and you are right." Then we laugh.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:41 - ID#254269)
JTF; ........Re WJC polls................. Do not despair, I think that the tide has
turned against him. Some of the more thoughtful talking heads have started to come out against him. Folk like David Broder and Jim Lehrer shows are starting to get the "real pulse" of the country.
In some ways, it's a pity that there has been so much hype re Monica, because that has limited coverage on many of the other ( and more important ) issues. Also, the Democrats are starting to treat him as "damaged goods". JMHO.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:44 - ID#373284)
LeLand, Namaste' and a giant gulp to ya and a teeny one for the baby...
post a picture if you can, Kitcoites know real gold...the gleam and promise in newborn eyes............

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:46 - ID#254269)
Guests at tolly's fantasy dinner party;
M. Camdessus ( guest of dishonor ) , WJC, Camdessus's sidekick ( you know the guy ) , AG, RR.

Fine wines and cigars to be served.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:47 - ID#289357)
JTF & Mtn Bear @ Seasonal Tendencies
I think it was Gollum who posted these charts last night. A significant departure from the historical trend ( to the downside ) is worth watching for, in the next few weeks. I'm amazed by the accuracy so far.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:51 - ID#254269)
Silly me.
I forgot two people ;left Al Gore and HRC off the list .

( silly grin on Avalon's face ) .

Namaste to the one that is tolly on the island that is long.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:56 - ID#147201)
Sorry about the problems. I've had some too. I'll be looking for the message. Thanx

(Thu Aug 20 1998 10:58 - ID#246224)
Looking at the underlying economics ( production ) I can't see that these folks can pull out of their predicament, whatever they financial resources they may hold. They have way to much debt compared to earnings. They have to much dependence on exporting to places like the USA. The 'money' they earned on products sold to the USA was unwisely invested in plant and ( overvalued ) real estate, which became the source of their own demise. Bubble popped and down she go!

The US will dive later. Hey, if everyone in the world thought that 'popcicle sticks' were a reserve currency, then they would have built a system around them, wouldn't they? Just so happens that the game is $US today. Probably that will be tested in the not to distant future.

Since 99+% of this 'money system' is really not representable in paper currency ( not enough ) then what will Y2K do to all these tottering temples? Federal Reserve claims to be stockpiling $US200 billion in cash to head off a case of the 'runs'. Well, if $US1 Trillion out of $US20 Trillion tries to become 'cash' in anticipation of large scale failures due to Y2K related issues, then its your guess .. as to the result.

The house is burning from the east to the west, from the south to the north. The ground is trembling and after that the flood waters will rise as they have in China recently. The only thing governments will be able to do is lock people inside the house as it burns down around them. What do you think people will feel about governments after that? The banks will fair no better then the governments which 'create' money.

Regardless of the name of the currency, it is true that the general level of stability that governments claim to procure is what enables people to 'believe' in the 'money' that such governments create for use. When governments begin to fail to maintain 'stability' then the currencies will fall in relation to real assets and hard goods. When this happens everywhere, then we will see bad news. Banks depend upon this fabric of trust and stability for their operation using these 'currencies'. When the fabric stretches and tears, then banks will become useless and will fail.

Got gold?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:01 - ID#373284)
Avalon, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...talking like that...oh myyyyyyyyyyy!!!
It's so hard I could cut glass with it...uh huh...............

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:06 - ID#252150)
Newtron@You bombed.
I really don't know what elicited your deranged attack on my post this a.m. Grizz "agreed wholeheartedly with it". It is your right to disagree & express you disagreement. It is not your right to reduce your rantimgs & ravings to the level of a personal attack. Were you foaming at the mouth when you posted to me? I hope that the rabid spittle that you drooled onto your keyboard did'nt clog it up.

I long ago gave up reading your drivel as I found it to be mostly about wacko conspiracy theories--"full of sound and fury signifying nothing".

The idea & Bart's intent for this forum is to offer & exchange thoughts & ideas. But if you choose to attack me on a personal level I will respond.

Do your blood pressure a favour & skip my posts as I skip yours.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:07 - ID#340459)
Russia on the Brink ??
Russian Leader Explains Devaluation

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russia's devaluation of the ruble and suspension of debt payments was a last-ditch effort to avoid a full default, Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko said today.

``If we were to continue servicing our debt and making payments on treasury bills, we would be unable to pay wages and pensions,'' Kiriyenko said in remarks broadcast on Russian television.

Kiriyenko scheduled a meeting with foreign investors later today and said they were working on a compromise debt payment schedule.

``We're not going to refuse to return this money to them, but act together to calmly and thoroughly analyze the real opportunities we have,'' the prime minister told the Cabinet.

Russia's financial crisis deepened this month as stocks fell sharply and investors fled Russian bonds even though interest rates soared to 200 percent.

The Central Bank acknowledged today that Russia's hard currency reserves fell sharply in the days preceding the devaluation, plunging nearly $2 billion last week -- from $17 billion on Aug. 7 to $15.1 billion last Friday.

It also described the extent of Russia's capital flight, saying that between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion were taken out of the country between May and mid-August, the Interfax news agency reported.

The government has continually failed to pay wages and pensions to millions of Russians, sparking protests in several regions.

Kiriyenko said the suspension of payments on treasury bills would add as much as $36 billion to state coffers over the next 18 months, that would help pay back wages.

Unpaid wages grew by 6.5 percent in July, to $11 billion at the beginning of this month, although only 20 percent of that is owed by the state.

The government had initially planned to announce the terms of debt restructuring on Wednesday, but postponed it until Monday under pressure from foreign investors who feared Russia was going to offer them a worse deal than Russian banks. Those terms were believed to be the top agenda item for Kiriyenko's session with the investors later in the day.

Russian commercial banks owed nonresidents $19.2 billion as of July 1, the Central Bank said today.

Meanwhile, the ruble's value remained virtually unchanged today at the Moscow currency exchange controlled by the Central Bank, falling to 6.995 from 6.99 at Wednesday's close.

The government has decided to let the ruble sink as low as 9.5 to the dollar, but is hoping it will shortly stabilize at around 7. Most bankers share this forecast and street rates for selling dollars, which plunged to 9.5 and below earlier this week, had stabilized today at around 7.5 to 8.

A longer-term forecast would strongly depend on the government's stabilization efforts and the position of Russian commercial banks, many now in trouble because of over-dependence on ruble assets.

Moving to avert panic, Central Bank chairman Sergei Dubinin announced a plan to offer Russians a 100 percent guarantee on all bank deposits. The plan would tie all accounts in commercial banks to the national bank, Sberbank, whose deposits are already guaranteed.

Trying to vent popular anger over the painful moves, the government established a hotline for Russians to report unfair price hikes and make suggestions for overcoming the crisis. The tax police have promised to crack down on businesses which unfairly crank up consumer prices.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:12 - ID#340459)
Clinton statements on Nixon in 1974 - What goes around comes around....
It was another time. Another place. But the same man.

"No question that an admission of making false statements to government officials and interfering with the FBI is an impeachable offense." -- Bill Clinton, ARKANSAS GAZETTE, August 8, 1974, page 7-A.

That quote is just one of dozens the DRUDGE REPORT has now obtained -- quotes that show Bill Clinton, in his own words, warning about the dangers of leaving a man that has lied in the position of President of the United States.

Bill Clinton was running for a seat in the United States Congress in the Summer of '74. In the early weeks of August, President Nixon was going down in flames from events surrounding the Watergate scandal. At that time, Nixon was refusing to respond to pressure from the Hill demanding his resignation.

Clinton was running for the seat held by Rep. John Paul Hammerschmidt [R] -- a Nixon loyalist who was publicly supporting the president and telling him to stay in office.

"REPRESENTATIVE IS 'OUT OF STEP,' CLINTON CHARGES" was the headline in the newspaper on August 8, 1974.

In the wake of President Nixon's public admission that he had lied about his role in Watergate, Clinton, then a law professor at the University of Arkansas, said:

"I think it is plain that the president should resign and spare the country the agony of impeachment and removal proceedings."

"I think the country could be spared a lot of agony... if he'd go on and resign," Bill Clinton declared.

The ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT, two days earlier -- August 6, 1974, page 10-A -- quoted Bill Clinton again talking about the need for Nixon to leave office:

"Bill Clinton, Democratic candidate for the 3rd Congressional District, said, "There is nothing left to say. There's no point putting this country through an impeachment since [Nixon] isn't making any pretense of innocence now... This country has suffered so long."

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:14 - ID#254269)
Midas; ................Wasn't Hillary one of the attorneys investigating
Nixon ?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:15 - ID#365216)
Clinton administration is preparing for 120 city terrorist biological attack
FEMA and other agencies are reportedly preparing for a number of
different scenarios whereby as many as 120 cities may be simultaneously
attacked by biological agents by Iraqi and other countries. Apparently,
the "Great Satan" ( Uncle Sam ) must be toppled by 2000. My question is:
why isn't the federal government helping its citizens to deal with this
like the Israeli government did and not just planning on how it will
dispose of the dead and dying corpses from the aftermath?

God, guns, gold, goods, AND GASMASKS!!!!


(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:19 - ID#280339)
Stock rally isn't over
Already this morning the VIX was over 30. There is a lot of fear out there. Tomorrow is option expiration. This will lead to a strong close for week.

Watch the gold stocks. They are starting to move. They will put in a good rally before the next and much larger downleg in stocks. Smart money is starting to move to PM's. The same thing happened in 87 and in 29.

Got Gold!!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:23 - ID#266105)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:24 - ID#432157)
Kitkat ---You spoke my EXACT WORDS -----GO CANADA

For to long we have been held hostage by those raving BASTARDS in Quebec who want to destroy CANADA for there own good and the hell with the rest of Canada .



(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:24 - ID#347235)
Yes she was

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:28 - ID#432157)

this is a very big day for Canada and I am a little excited .We have waited for about 175 years for this decision .That is a long time to wait for anything. PLEASE YOUR INDULGENCE ON THIS GREAT DAY


(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:28 - ID#31876)
Another Shoe is Dropping. Brazil.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:32 - ID#390415)
So what happened in Canada?
That has everybody so excited?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:37 - ID#284255)
From Y2k Watch
Below are quotes from the National Press Club's "Year 2000" news conference
held Tuesday in Washington. It was scheduled to mark the 500 remaining days
to the Year 2000.

Edward Yardeni, chief economist with Deutsche Bank Securities, said
the world is so dependent on computers and so behind on repairs that there is
a 70 percent chance of a global recession. He predicted the U.S. economy would
decline by 4 percent. "Much to my dismay, far too many people out there are
saying this is all a bunch of hype," Dr. Yardeni said at a National Press Club
briefing. "The Year 2000 problem threatens to push us into a global recession
as severe as the one that occurred in 1973-1974." Dr.Yardeni said U.S. bonds,
interest rates and stock prices would plummet in a Year 2000, or Y2K, recession.
Stocks could fall 30 percent but would then rebound in 2001 as companies climbed
back from the temporary choke hold on the flow of information. "We have to
recognize that even if we pull off a heroic fix here, we still run the risk that
the rest of the world is too far behind," he said. "Asia has a year 1998 problem.
Many of their companies are trying to stay in business with 90-day survival plans.
They're too distracted to deal with Y2K problems."

Jack Brock, a systems auditor with the Government Accounting Office He said he
is pessimistic about the country's ability to solve the Y2K problem because of
the embedded information links among companies and government agencies.

"Organizations outside your domain can disrupt your mission-critical processes,"
he said. "You need contingency plans that plan for failures and resources to
check all your process links. . . .These decisions need to be made right now."

Dean Rutley, an attorney with the law firm Kilpatrick Stockton LLP. He said the
chain of suppliers a company relies on is as important as its own internal systems.
He said Chrysler Corp., with 972 direct suppliers and more than 100,000 indirect
ones, would face the potential for assembly-line shutdowns and other major
disruptions if just 1 percent of its suppliers had computers that failed
Jan. 1, 2000. "We still have 16 months, and I have faith in the American people
to rise to the occasion," Mr. Rutley said. "But one thing is certain: Unless the
proper steps are taken immediately by the world's political and business leaders,
because of the interdependencies involved, a major heart attack is likely."

Tony Keyes
- Y2k Advisor Radio Show Host in Washington, D.C. Tony Keyes, a former information
technology executive and host of the Y2k Advisor who hosts a radio talk show about
the Y2K problem, moderated Tuesday's Press Club panel. He cited estimates that the
global cost to fix the Year 2000 computer problem could be as much as $600 billion,
while the liability claims in lawsuits over the issue could hit $1 trillion.

A note:
They used 500 days to point to the importance of the event. They are trying to
force business and governments to take this more serious and at the same time
not cause panic. Yet today is August 20, 1998, and as many of us know, some businesses,
states and the federal government's fiscal year 2000 begins in the first and second
quarters of 1999 and throughout the year. We know this will cause problems.

But the "big bang" will be January 1, 2000, when all other computers and embedded
chips will respond or not respond. - Bill Koenig

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:44 - ID#153102)
@General @Clinton Is A Goner For Reasons Certain
General If there is this threat to Christians that fedgov has identified, why are there any Muslims in the country ?

Clinton knew things. About Mena, etc. But, by proving him a perjurer, his testimony on things implicating others is made void. His word in testimony is impeached even if he is not impeached from office. He has nothing on them any more. He will twist in the wind until he cuts himself loose of the harness of impotent power.

A question which has never been answered is what is the legal status of the official acts of a President who has been removed from office by impeachment. Indeed, should Clinton be convicted of perjury, what is the status of the testimony given by his signature to Executive Orders, Treaties, and Legislation ? This is why he can still probably bargain immunity.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:48 - ID#402148)
SteveIS...thanks for the VIX
Would you be so kind as to keep us abreast when it hits extreme values one way or another?


Mountain Goat
(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:51 - ID#35087)
@goldbugs one and all
I'm not a market analyst. My place here is mostly one of lurker and
Y2K alarmist.


Yesterday as I was discussing Y2K issues with a newly made friend,
he confided in me that he's going to start buying Gold in the
near future as a hedge against bad times.

That makes five people I've talked to in the last 2 months who have
either bought Gold or are planning it. 5 people who didn't own Gold
a year ago.

It seems to be gaining momentum... Slowly, but surely.


Bill T. ( Go Gold! )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:51 - ID#25171)
@ geoffs
I guess you think INDIA should still be a BRITISH colony

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:53 - ID#252150)
Newtron@cowardly, despicable,duplicitous & unimaginitive are just some of the
words that come to mind to describe the way you carried on your attack against me after I had said goodnight & you knew full well that I would'nt be there to respond.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 11:54 - ID#413307)
Lease rates: Bart has not been posting them lately, so I am
informing the group that I can't inform the group about leasing gold.
I do know this, lease rates will move before the gold bull charges.

Bart could you post the latest lease rates?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:02 - ID#288295)
HopeFull @ VIX

You can chart this yourself using the free ( 15 minute delay ) charting feature at

Just enter VIX.X in the symbols box.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:04 - ID#252150)
geoff's@I could'nt agree more about the as*holes in Quebec, who are doing
their best to destroy this Country. I really believe that Bouchard should be tried for treason.

I was in the Air Force in Montreal when they killed Laporte in 1970. They are comprised of a bunch of thugs & ideagogues who have cost Canada billions of $ in the name of bilingualism & special treatment & they are never satisfied, always demanding more.

Because of the gutless womders who have ruled this Country for the past 30 years, the average Canadian is getting poorer every day.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:06 - ID#246224)
Bad Boy! A little spanking for you and off to the corner for a time out. You simply must apologize to James for your horrid behaviour.

James, you know Newtron hasn't been quite 'right' since he fell off his hobby horse last week. So be patient with him till he gets his wits back.

Boys, you must try harder to get along with each other.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:08 - ID#413307)
@ NightWriter: The Supreme Court of Canada issued its decision
on the legality of Quebec Province leaving the Confederation of Canada.

Quebec can't secede under the terms of the Canadian Constitution,
which of course, Quebec signed back in mid 1980's.

To leave Confederation, the Separatists will have to use bullets,
rather than consensus. Since only about 30% of Quebecois are
separatists, they may find themselves a little outnumbered.

Their second problem is the firm Federalist stand by aboriginals,
who control about 85% of the province ( virtually all of northern
Quebec ) Internal polls of Quebec native Canadians show a 96%
pro-Canada bias, with many native Canadians in Quebec even refusing
to learn French.

The break up of Canada by consensus will not happen. Why would
anyone want to leave the best country in the world? ( sorry non-Canadians
but that opinion comes from the U.N. for the last three years in
a row. )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:11 - ID#347235)
HepMe Money Your 01:49 Many thousand word post
Yoe fail to impress anyone with your rambling multi thousand word post repeating everything we have already read more than once, I agree with much you say but wasting bandwidth posting a large repetitive account of other peoples work it a wast of the time it takes to scroll past it. In future please just post a brief outline of your book and put the rest on a URL so those who like to read the same thing over and over can waste their time doing so.SHALOM TO YOU

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:11 - ID#25171)
@ James
I guess your next suggestion will be to put the french speaking population in QUEBEC in camps with mandatory english lessons ( if not worse )
Any suggestion of a barbed wire producing company quoted in TORONTO?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:13 - ID#147201)
Mountain Goat re 11:51
How about emailing me about your survey? TIA Charlie

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:14 - ID#347235)
Sorry yoe=you fat finger hit wrong key and I missed it on reread, but my main point is brevity is the soul of wit. SHALOM

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:15 - ID#427357)

Precious Metals analyst Dines shares his insightful and incisive report - albeit grim -
On the Northern "Peso." He relates Asian turmoil in stocks and currencies with the increasing woes of Canada.

"It is remarkable that the decline in the Canadian dollar had until only
recently escaped the notice of the world's press, nonetheless it has dropped a dismaying 8.0% since March 27th."

"Canadian economists have been surprised by the recent slowdown in their
Gross Domestic Product, a decline in shipments of manufactured goods, and
the number of jobs having declined in June for two consecutive months. The Asian currency crisis is already affecting Canada, having ravaged its
west-coast timber industry."

"The dismaying truth is that governments worldwide are very deliberately and knowingly printing too much paper money because they unabashedly want their currencies to decline in world marketplaces in order to give their exporters an advantage over those in other countries."

" Every country in the world is devaluing its currency against the US dollar, the English pound, and the Chinese renminbi. President Clinton panders to Chinese pride by describing its refusal to devalue having made it a "island of stability" in the region, but China's exports are plunging as their neighbors continue to devalue, and the question is how long China will tolerate their exports disappearing before they too yield to devaluation."

Dines report on "The Coming Currency Crisis" Worldwide may be seen in its entirety at following URL - it will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before pasting the URL to your Internet:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:16 - ID#244242)
Clinton needs a time out-OF OFFICE!

I hope you folks up north don't end up having to deal with some radicalized bunch that might call themselves the Quebec Liberation Army or somesuch...

Oh yeah... Go Gold!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:20 - ID#343171)
Clinton and gold
I have been, like most kitconians, awaiting an event or series of events to knock the US dollar off of its perch. I think we are in the event horizon, thanks in large part to the mind numbed clinton supports finally figuring out what most of us picked up on in 1994. ( how hard was that anyway? I'd like to send 'em all to antarctica, but thats another post ) .
As US stocks correct or crash all we need is a tiny fraction of a fraction of investors to look to gold for preservation and we are off to the races as shorts get squeezed.
I would love to vascillate like my bro clinton but I want to put my oar in the water and say that gold is heading over $300 in a matter of days, can I say more rather than less, sooner rather than later?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:21 - ID#252150)
Sequin@No I don't think that the Quebecois should have mandatory
English lessons. If they think that they can survive unilingually in the midst of 300,000,000 english speaking people, good luck to them. Do you think that the Cajuns would be doing as well as they are in Louisiana if the had remained unilingual?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:26 - ID#225236)
General's Question
"... why isn't the federal government helping its citizens to deal with this
like the Israeli government did and not just planning on how it will
dispose of the dead and dying corpses from the aftermath? God, guns, gold, goods, AND GASMASKS!!!! ..."

Because that would defeat the whole purpose of things!!! US government WANTS the terrorists to strike because that will allow them to complete their insane quest toward police state complete with perhaps even a locator chip in body of every "citizen." How can you complain about "rights" if there are these insane terrorists lurking to kill you?!

ALL current problems in the US ( crime, drugs, illegal immigration ) are created for the sole purpose of destroying the US Constitution and creating a police state the likes of which the world has never seen before.

Example: US has supported the corrupted dictators of Mexico for many, many decades. Why would US pump money into Mexico to make sure that the few corrupted families remain in power and continue to keep their people poor and flooding US borders as a result? Quite simple, really!!! The "illegal" immigrants are perfect scapegoat for the draconian measures imposed on Americans!!!

There has never been a technologically advanced nation that would be as stupid and as ignorant as Americans are today. Go Y2K, go!!! As a programmer, long time ago, I have decided to help spread the problem rather than prevent it. I do not know a single "REAL" programmer that likes big government!!! Would rather eat a bullet than work for the government. By the way, the IBM360/370 based and derived mainframe computers ( really primitive and really popular with big government ) did not have ability to write/erase protect files rather than setting the file protection dates to the highest possible year. Although setting it to 12/31/99 was possible, the date generally was set to 01/01/99. Enjoy!!! We should have some fun really soon!!!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:29 - ID#410194)
Huge decline in Dow?
All right, let's see.... the Dow is still up a couple of hundred points for the week and there is a day and a half day left for it to drop
close to a 1000 points from the current level in order for it to decline 500-800 points.

Puetz, do you think you are still on track with your prediction of a possible drop of 500-800 points in the Dow this week or you gave up on this one too to rather focus on your latest prediction of a crash this coming September.

Please let us know when you get a chance, thanks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:19
Puetz ( Stock Market Crash -- Update ) ID#222167:
The Phase-3 decline ( that began on August 7th ) will last a
little longer than I originally thought. Stocks will
most likely continue decling this coming week, and possibly
into the following week -- before a strong counter-trend
rally takes hold during the last few days of August and
the first few days of September.

Even though the DJIA fell 170 last week, the action was
more like a top than a bottom. Bargin-hunting rallies
popped up all week. Finally, on Friday, various sentiment
indicators ( VIX, put activity ) showed that the bulls are
about ready to give up on bargain-hunting for a while.

A much larger decline should hit the DJIA this week --
probably in the 500-800 point range. The end of the
Phase-3 decline will probable be a record-volume hook-
reversal day -- with the DJIA down 300-400 points early
in the day, and recovering most of the losses before the
close. This will happen late this week, or early next

The big crash will take place during September. It will
make next weeks sell-off look like fun-and-games. More


Steve Puetz

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:30 - ID#153102)
@Why does the C country have its own currency anyway ?
Much more efficient to just use $US. Would reduce poverty of socialists, too. Until efficiency savings erased by more spending on free brain surgery.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:31 - ID#252150)
Vronsky@I notice that you revel in posting all the alarmist bs
If you consider yourself such a learned individual why don't you respond to wizened's 23:44 post of last night, in which he asks a very simple question? "Do you really believe that the U.S.$ is up because of the AU in Fort Knox?"

IMO, the very fact that not one of the fanatical GBs even attempted to answer that question is an indictment on their lack of conviction & knowledge.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:34 - ID#252150)
I see that your lobotomy was very successfull. Your huge ego is only superceded by your superciliousness.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:34 - ID#57232)
Seasonal tendencies
SilverBaron: Thanks -- web sites logged. Interesting that the Dow does not seem to drop as much as the SP-500 after Labor day.

If the trend is as predicted, I should have bought after Labor day -- not before. Fortunately with my Fidelity mutual fund trades total turnaround cost is 0.75% or less.

What I find curious is the strong performance of the markets late fall and winter. These graphs would be even better if they were broken down to cover the presidential election cycle. As I recall, this year is bearish. But -- the PPT will be out in full regalia in 1999. Will be interesting to see the 'clash of the Titans' in 1999 -- y2k vs PPT.

PH in LA
(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:35 - ID#225408)
Indiscriminate justice for all!

"We must be the laughing stock of the world....We are not talking about the kinds of single partner affairs that most former presidents have had -- we are talking about indiscriminate sexual activity, and then lying about it."

Right on JTF!

It's when the sexual activity becomes "indiscriminate" that we become "laughing stocks of the world". All that "discriminate sexual activity" is OK with me, too!

And what about that tie? Isn't that just terrible?

I am sendingan e-mail to Sam Donaldsonthis morning thanking him for that very significant story he did last night on the President's necktie. I want him to know that the video clips of the President wearing the tie that was given to him by the object of his "indiscriminate sexual activity" resonated with me and with millions of other Americans making us all feel like "laughing stocks of the world".

Last night someone came on here braying about "JUSTICE". "it's not about's about justice! Blah, Blah, Blah..."

Got me thinking.

Wouldn't we have a much better system of justice if these things worked the same way for all Americans? You know, like a system of laws, where everyone was treated the same way under the law? From the President down to the lowest common criminal?

It could be quite a system!

Let's say there is reason to believe a crime has been committed. ( Any reason would suffice. Even just wishing that one had been, for any reason, including political reasons ought to be enought. ) A special prosecutor could be assigned to the criminal. So let's say you begin by looking for evidence of murder. If no evidence is found you could check to see if robbery might have been committed ( or even financial irregularities ) . If that doesn't work, and before you give up with nothing, ask around to see if "indiscriminate sexual activities" were committed. Even if you can't prove that they were, you could impannel a special grand jury and start asking questions. Sooner or later the "criminal" ( who has not yet committed any crime ) would probably say something that conflicted with what he said yesterday, or with what someone else said yesterday, or with something someone was going to say tomorrow ( you get my drift ) and you could nail him for perjury. It wouldn't have to matter what it was about. Hell, just about everyone has some sort of "sexual activity" either in his past or his future, some "discriminate" and some "indiscriminate". Just ask him about that. Most people lie about sex, especially if it is either "discriminate" or "indiscriminate".

You'd have him then. You could throw him in jail. Or maybe you could get the death penalty popularized again. Have him torn from limb to limb in the town square. That used to be very big just a few hundred years ago. At the very least you could get him fired from his job.

I'd really like to live in a country with a system like that! Wouldn't you?

Got ( enough ) gold?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:37 - ID#347235)
Bloomburg news service has the POG At 289+ at the top of this page it is 284+ which is accurate??? Thanks

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:39 - ID#252150)
Realistic@I'm surprised that you still find sport in exposing the biggest dud
to ever post an opinion on this forum. And that's saying a lot.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:42 - ID#28586)
@PH'ed in LA
1 ) Fear
2 ) Anger
3 ) Denial
4 ) Acceptance

You are currently in Phase #2. Please move along to phase 2 through 4 as quickly as possible, True Believer.

Yours truely,
Spud "Impeach the Lying, Manipulative, Thieving, Con-Artist Now"

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:46 - ID#35571)
They are both right. One is December gold, the other is spot.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:46 - ID#376309)
retired soldier
one is the spot gold the other is december comex gold.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:47 - ID#28586)
My virtual Web friend, Mrs. Peel, has informed me that I had submitted an incomlete list. In an effort to get back in her good graces, and help heal PH in LA, here is the correct list:

1 ) denial,
2 ) anger,
3 ) bargaining,
4 ) grief,
5 ) acceptance.

PH, you be in phase #2: move along please...

Spud, in a bowler hat & cane

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:50 - ID#57232)
Petronius: I am disappointed that you are not more interested in helping our Government -- at least in principle. Also, I think you or any other programmers should get the going rate. COBOL is hot right now.

Here is why I think is it best to help our Government if the request is reasonable. If our Government fails miserably, it will be very bad for all of us -- just think what it would be like with FEMA at the helm. And -- the spin doctors will find some way to blame someone else for the Governments ineptitude. Given the Clinton polls, it is not hard to believe that the public could somehow be deceived into thinking the US government is 'saving' us from some devious plot. Lets not give FEMA the opprotunity to take over.

Personally, I do not think our Government is capable of preventing a y2k fiasco of some kind -- no matter how many programmers cooperate. Businesses will be ready -- with some laggards that will fall by the wayside. But -- forget most of big government unless we have the equivalent of a Manhattan project. Government organizations do not anticipate like private organizations -- so nothing urgent like this gets done until it is too late, or learly so. And -- the taxpayers always pay for this -- either way.

I would guess that the Federal employees still do not realize that it will not just be revenue that will be messed up -- it may also be their paychecks! I would not like to be a high level Federal bureaucrat on the day the Federal paychecks do not go out. As I recall, approximately 30% of the workforce now is government employees.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:51 - ID#289357)
HopeFull @ VIX.X

Here's the URL for the fastquote charts at

Enter VIX.X ( best using 5 minute chart )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:52 - ID#35571)
In tracking/guessing what the DOW is doing, you need to adjust for seasonal trading patterns. As you can see the DOW ought to be down a little today and it appears to be so, so far.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:55 - ID#174239)
Canada, Quebec, and the US.
Except for Quebec, Canada appears culturally very similar to the United States. Why not just let Quebec be a little country. If the other states and territories of Canada voted to join thier southern Union of States, I think the US would welcome them in. The border between Canada and the US is currently the longest unguarded border in the world. There has never been a war between these two countries. The language, culture, and ideals are very similar. Alaska would become part of the continental US. Everyone would benifit. Quebec would become more french and more isolated, which should make them happy. The other nine states of canada would become part of the most powerfull country in the world. The US flag would have to add a row bunch of stars, but it already has alternating columns of four and five stars. Nine more would fit in very easily.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:58 - ID#347235)
Thank you very much, my education continues daily here!!!Shalom

(Thu Aug 20 1998 12:59 - ID#35571)
Quite right. The charts really should be correlated by year modulo 4.
So the the seasonal patterns could be seen against their position in the political cycle.

Yellow Jacket__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:02 - ID#185112)
FYI: Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
August 19, 1998

Japan and China Brace for New Banking Crises

According to Agence France Presse, Taku Yamasaki, a senior official of the
Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told Indonesia's President on
Tuesday that Japan's economy would face its "most serious crisis" within a
week. The story was also carried by the Japanese Kyodo and Jiji news
services. While Yamasaki did not specify what crisis was brewing, he is
quoted as having said that "I contacted very important persons in the
Japanese government, and they said that they decided not to let ailing
major banks go bankrupt to avoid negatively influencing the economic
situation in the world, especially in Asia." An obvious inference to be
drawn is that some major Japanese banks will be facing a major cash flow
problem next week and may be unable to meet obligations. If this is the
case, the Japanese government is sending out a signal in financially
devastated Indonesia, telling the rest of Asia that the Japanese government
is prepared to bail out the banks, preventing bankruptcy.

Yamasaki's reassurance in anticipation of a crisis that has not yet
surfaced is more chilling than calming. Clearly, senior officials in the
Japanese government are aware of an impending crisis of substantial
proportions, such as the bankruptcy of some of Japan's major banking
institutions, and are trying to soften the shock. This is not the usual
Japanese style. Denial until the last possible moment has been the normal
operating procedure in Japan. Yamasaki appears to be trying to do damage
control in the ASEAN countries, attempting to reassure them and to limit
the effects of the crisis. As economic crises have become the norm in
Japan, Yamasaki's unusual warning indicates that Japan is facing a new
crisis of truly impressive magnitude.

Perhaps part of Japan's concerns were events in China. On Monday, China's
Ministry of Finance announced that they were issuing 270 million yuan
( about $32 billion at the official rate ) worth of special, 30-year, yuan-
denominated bonds, carrying an annual coupon of 7.2 percent. The purpose
of these bonds was to supply capital to the Industrial and Commercial Bank
of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Construction Bank of China,
and the Bank of China. The bonds were not to be sold to the general
public. Wang Wuhong, a Finance Ministry spokesman, pointed out that the
Ministry could not guarantee that the bond issue will enable the four banks
to meet the eight percent capital adequacy ratio set by the International
Bank of Settlements. According to Agence France Presse, these banks had
capital bases of four to five percent and at least 25 percent of their
loans were non-performing. The banks are also being pressured by the
government to write off bad loans, which involves foreclosure and other
aggressive collection efforts. As in other Asian countries, this action is
difficult to execute because of political and social implications.

At the same time, the People's Bank of China issued a circular urging all
banks to separate themselves from non-financial entities they owned. This
is a crucial step in saving the banking system, since there is a tendency
to support unprofitable linked businesses with favorable loans that are not
economically justified. This linkage between banks and non-financial
businesses has been a key element in the Asian meltdown, since banks'
irrational lending practices have undermined their stability. Of course,
this circular comes about five years too late. With a conservative count
of 25 percent non-performing loans, the damage has already been done.

Not surprisingly, China's Xinhua News Agency reported that Beijing banks
reported a 121.7 percent rise in sales of foreign currencies in the first
half of this year. Thus, we have the key elements of the Asian economic
crisis now clearly in view in China. First, Chinese banks cannot meet the
minimal IBS standards, even with massive infusions of capital. Second,
their non-performing loans stand at 25 percent. Third, the government is
trying, far too late, to get banks to sell off capital-draining assets.
Fourth, the government is trying to get banks to write off bad loans.
Finally, the price of the yuan is kept stable while the public is buying
foreign currency.

The Japanese and the Chinese are tied together now. If the Chinese were to
devalue suddenly, economies throughout Asia, including Japan, would be
devastated. If the Japanese weakened any further, the Chinese would be
forced to devalue. China has been warning Japan about this for the past
few weeks. The Japanese can hear the creaking sounds of China buckling
under the strain. The Chinese see an uncontrolled plummet in Japan's
economy, and are scrambling to do damage control, albeit too little and
much too late.

We believe that the next two weeks will be critical in the Asian crisis.
Japanese banks seem about to break. The Japanese government is going to
forced to save them. They will need to borrow money on the international
market to do so. That means that they will need to strengthen the yen. Of
course, strengthening the yen involves selling dollars, which undermines
their ability to borrow money. The pressure on China will increase. China
is trying to get its house in order, hoping to stabilize its banks in
anticipation of the crunch. Of course, their own banking crisis is far
greater than a $30 billion bond issue can handle.

A question arises: the Chinese have been defending the yuan with currency
controls. If Japan is facing its "most serious crisis" yet next week, is
there any way they can navigate through the treacherous waters without
imposing some sort of currency controls of their own? Given the magnitude
of their problems and their unwillingness to impose genuine, wrenching
controls, we are beginning to wonder if there is any way out, short of such
controls. And with the two largest Asian economies having controlled
currencies, what other Asian countries would follow suit? We note that
Yamasaki was in Indonesia when he made his dire prediction. Even if the
Japanese decide not to impose currency controls, the mere threat should
achieve what Japan wants most -- an American solution. The U.S. is
committed to the current monetary arrangements. If Yamasaki's crisis is as
serious as he is implying, the threat may not be as farfetched in a week as
it seems today.

That is speculation. What is not speculation is that the Japanese are
worried about something, or at least want the world to think they are
worried. We think it is a combination of a Chinese banking crisis and
Japanese bank bankruptcies, converging on each other. And that is a
radical event requiring radical solutions that leave Japan's internal
social and political arrangements intact. We are open to other
suggestions, but Japan does not seem to have many options.


To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at>, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to

STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500
Austin, TX 78731-4939
Phone: 512-454-3626
Fax: 512-454-1614

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:04 - ID#427357)

sharfin's recent post regarding:

One of the world's leading economists, Edward Yardeni, chief economist with Deutsche Bank Securities, said:

The Year 2000 problem threatens to push us into a global recession as severe as the one that occurred in 1973-1974." Dr.Yardeni said U.S. bonds, interest rates and stock prices would plummet in a Year 2000, or Y2K, recession. Stocks could fall 30 percent but would then rebound in 2001 as companies climbed back from the temporary choke hold on the flow of information."

What Happened During the "SECOND" Great Market Crash ( 1973/1974 ) ?

From the market high in 1973 to its low in 1974 the DJIA and the S&P 500
lost almost half their value - while the previously high-flying technology stocks plummeted more than 60%. Enough to cause heart-failure to the credulous believers of THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. Even the relatively "safe" utilities were decimated - as they dropped more than 50% from their 1973 high to their nadir in 1974. H-O-W-E-V-E-R, students of financial histor took profitable refuge in gold metal stocks. The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 267% from its 1973 low ( 40 ) to its 1974 high ( 147 ) . This merits being redundant.

During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost QUADRUPLED.

The over-riding guideline of my precious metals' research was aptly described by one of Wall Street's legendary wizards, Bernard Baruch - unfortunately, unknown to most of today's investment Pollyannas. His observation still rings with logic and clarity:

"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time.....
When something holds good for two thousand years,
I do not believe it can be so because of
prejudice or mistaken theory."

Many at Kitco have already read a historical study we made some time ago, but a few have not yet seen it. In light of the building Bear market in Wall Street and the looming MILLENNIUM MENACE, the following report is indeed worth everyone's attention - in review or afresh.


It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:06 - ID#35571)
Zip! Zap! Pow!
Tomorrow should be a really exciting day. Going into the weekend, China/Japan banking crises impending, various devaluations impending, and this will also be a third Friday......

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:06 - ID#57232)
Logging off!
All: If you have a chance -- please look at the Mexican indices -- if you think the US markets are weak, take a look at the fall off the cliff South of the Border. What's the name of that popular resort where the divers jump nearly a hundred feet into the Ocean? I gather Brazil and Venezuela are behaving in a similar manner. I would guess that much of these assets are returnin to the US. Will be some big US corporate-South American investment losses reported in the next few months. So much for the 20 billion or so of US taxpayers money to bail out Mexico in 1994.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:07 - ID#365216)
the perfect home defense unit:


(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:09 - ID#219363)
Could you explain this mysterious ( to me ) chart ? I didn't see an explaination on the page for what it really was, or how it "came to be". Sure is tracking close, whatever it is.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:10 - ID#424394)
Late night boozing dulls Newtron's & Disney's ability to think
EJ - you ask in your 01:43 Where does gold fit into this world?
Answer - it doesnt - not until Spock can beam it from place to place like cybermoney.

Newtron - since you couldnt understand what James was saying last night, you resorted to polemics. Typical response of those with weak minds - though in your case perhaps your usually sharp mind was dulled with liquid soporifics.

John Disney - you just instinctively joined in the chase. No thinking required. The chastising of James after you knew he had left for the night was cowardly.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:12 - ID#334219)
Re GEO: Just before the cross, Bunting sold at $1.40 to those who where bidding there. Then the cross took place at $1.35. I don't see that there were bids at $1.40 at the moment of the cross...that would have been illegal. If there were, Bunting would have filled them.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:15 - ID#403234)
J (Canada, Quebec, and the US.)
No offense, but , no thanks!!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:18 - ID#252150)
Grizz@Thanks. re: JD-- now that you mention it, his behaviour was a little sleazy.
but I guess he just could'nt resist a little dig. I'm used to his cantankerousness, so did'nt really take offense.

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:19 - ID#24135)
I call em like I see em
Grizz ..

Cowardly ?? Up yours ..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:22 - ID#424394)
Disney - it is just that you were not seeing too well last night
Morning afters are tough aren't they?
How is the hangover?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:22 - ID#35571)
It is the result of taking some 43 years of DOW price movements and correlating and averageing them to obtain an average seasonal trading pattern. The peak we had in July was the top of the usual summer rally.
The rise in the fall is the so called Santa Claus rally.

The charts for the S&P500 and New York composite are from 85 years of data.

The actual price movement this year is superimposed on top for comparison.

As you can see, the movements in the market so far this year are tracking pretty close to what one would expect.

In any kind of trading, be it gold or pork bellies or the DOW, one should be aware of seasonal trading patterns.

One should also take into account what the chartists ( for timing ) and fundamentalists ( for long term prospects ) have to say in determining not only the best investment, but also the best time for making that investment.

I wonder if anyone has the same sort of charts for the metals. Anyone?

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:25 - ID#24135)
Sleazy ??
James ??
Up yours too.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:27 - ID#290172)
On the other hand...

Implications for Asia of the Yen's Collapse
Political & Economic Risk Consultancy, Ltd.
June 26, 1998

Assessing the Regional Fallout From the Yen's Collapse


1 ) "There is a tendency to consider that all economies of the region are being infected by the same Asian flu."

2 ) "there are still more characteristics that distinguish different Asian economies than there are factors held in common. It is important to recognize these differences and where interlinkages between economies do not necessarily exist, since these differences are likely to result in exchange rates behaving in different ways."

3 ) "Admittedly, Asia is moving into uncharted territory. The "r" word - recession - is now being applied to most economies, and the World Bank sent out an even more alarming signal last week when the bank's senior regional official warned that Asia is on the threshold of a long depression."

4 ) "The slide of the yen will undoubtedly put pressure on other Asian currencies. It is wrong to assume, however, that every Asian currency is about to fall out of bed."

5 ) "The second failure of the Domino Theory is likely to be the Chinese yuan. Sentiment seems to be growing that Beijing will have to devalue its currency. The logic seems to be that the fall of the yen, combined with the earlier falls in other Asian currencies, have rendered China uncompetitive as an exporter and a site for foreign direct investment. A growing number of people seem to be taking this logic at face value, without really testing the assumptions. The interlinkages between the yen and the yuan are not nearly as strong as most people seem to assume. Moreover, while Chinese exports are definitely slowing and the inflow of new direct foreign investment is also weakening, there is no indication that Chinese goods are uncompetitive or that foreign companies are now focusing on other Asian countries as sites for their new investments at the expense of China."

6 ) "A weaker yuan will not result in Indonesians buying anything more from China, and Japanese consumers are likely to be even less sensitive to exchange rate changes. They are extremely fearful of what the future holds for the Japanese economy and are responding by saving everything they can. It will take a lot more than a weaker yuan to get Japanese consumers to loosen up on their purse strings. Some economists are saying that no incentives will work in the current environment, only disincentives like a much higher rate of inflation in Japan that results in negative real interest ratesthat penalize anyone who squirrels away their savings.China's exports are holding up better so far this year than in almost every Asian country. Exports grew by 8.6% in the first five months of this year to US$71.1 billion. Admittedly, this was down sharply from the rate of export growth registered in the like span of 1997 ( over 20% ) , but it still matches or exceeds the performance of Asian economies with similar export lines. Chinese exports are likely to slow further in the months ahead and could even slip into the negative range ( exports in May were 1.5% less than in the like month of 1997 ) . This is less important than comparing the performance of China's exports to those of directly competing economies. So far China has held its own in this respect. We expect that it will continue to do so.

After all, exchange rates are only one factor behind export competitiveness, and not necessarily the major one. Quotas are also important. So is the availability of inputs required to produce for export ( many other Asian countries which have experienced radical exchange rate changes are at a serious disadvantage in securing necessary inputs for production ) . Most investors are drawn to China in the hope of developing the market there. They are under pressure to export at least part of their production, however, in order to earn enough foreign exchange to pay for their import requirements. China's inflation rate is much, much lower than in other Asian countries, and labor is still relatively inexpensive."

7 ) "None of this will change significantly if the yen continues to fall. To the extent that China has foreign debts denominated in yen, it is actually benefiting from the weakening of the Japanese unit. Neither are the Japanese the main investors in the Mainland. Chinese from Hong Kong and Taiwan are, while Americans and Europeans also figure prominently. Exchange rate considerations are much less important to future investment flows than are domestic considerations. Japanese, Korean and Southeast Asian companies, for example, are so strapped for cash at home that they are not in a position to sustain their level of investments in China even if they wanted to. Meanwhile, US and European companies are pushing ahead in China, not pulling back."

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:30 - ID#24135)
You know less than ..
Nothing ..
I havent had a hangover in about
30 years .. but I dont really have
to justify myself to hairy animals..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:36 - ID#347235)
Both of you are better men than this, calm down OK? SHALOM

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:37 - ID#25171)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:37 - ID#25171)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:37 - ID#288186)
Gold is still trying to hang in there. Dec Gold @ 289.10//Any bets on how the PM's
will finish today? I'd like to think ( and wish ) that Gold finishes
up above 290.00 for two days in a row. ( fingers crossed ) Foxman

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:38 - ID#219363)
These seasonal charts - does the market normally follow pretty close, or are there times of deviation ? What I'm getting at, it's sort of hard to call bear market when you're looking at these charts and they're expecting a rise, but at the same time, the charts couldn't be perfect in their projections, or, well, it'd take all the guess-work out of it. Trying to get my mind around it. I guess what I'm saying - the 10 percent drop we just had was obviously unexpected by the market folks, and these "seasonal trends" are to me something that the market guess'timators would have taken into account in doing their own analysis - how do we resolve that when looking at the charts ? It's not intuitively clear to me.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:39 - ID#368244)
Security Update

Flash president to address nation immediatly.

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:39 - ID#24135)
implats amazes
To all impala fans..
Results out .. amazing really .. Earning increased
from 177 mill rand last year to 506 mill rand . All this
with a 15 % increase in the dollar price for its PGM
mix. This doesnt even include the effect of the recent
rand slide from 5.3 to 6.3. The div was increased from
1.1R to 3.5 rand. This is simply stunning.
Cost rose by only 4 % over the year despite 7 %
inflation and a decline in the rand value. This stock
MUST be rerated upwards by another 50 % anyway.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:39 - ID#28586)
PPT asleep at the switch...
Dow making really weird moves today ...

Golden Cheesehead, I wait until tommorrow to praise your predicitions!

Goodbye, Clinton cabal! The abyss yawns open for you & your corrupt team.

"I am legally accurate in saying 'I am not a crook'"
-- Bill Clinton, resignation speech to the Nation


(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:40 - ID#284255)
PPT hard at work???
Dow tanking to fast

Premium being jeker by futures

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:42 - ID#252150)
JD@"Up yours too"
How can I top that? You get the last word.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:42 - ID#411259)
..... Announcement Regarding African Bombings .....

Put CNN on NOW.

The Pres will speak of this
And probably not much more


(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:43 - ID#57232)
National Security Announcement
Sequin: I would guess that WJC is about to tell us of some terrorist threat within US borders. Perhaps multiple sites. Won't say where. Probably recommended by the spin doctors. Would be a clever move to come up with some kind of emergency that would be expected to bring down the markets, so that he would not be blaimed for their demise.

In my opinion, only the real thing will get any of the weight off his back.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:43 - ID#187109)
I, for one, enjoy and NEED your cut&paste posts. It is prrof positive that history repeats itself ;- ) I urge you to continue this practice for it tends to ground us when we get too gung-ho about something..............time and again..........and again..........................and again. Thank you sir/ ( madam? ) . They are timely and not too overdone. Keep up the good work.

Now, find one of my 'ZINGERS' ( I have some tremendous bad calls in my of which is DisneyStox, right Spuders? ( wink ) ) and cut&paste it. I need some grounding $ ( ! ) .

be nice............[:-^ ) ...........ohmy! listen for dogs barking

JD - when your genetic advisor said the en was topping what did he mean? Was it in relation to gold? Isn't the en bottoming? I is now totawy confused. Please 'splain to me Lucy..... And should we not sell into this rally? Everyone else will ( ? )

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:44 - ID#24135)
Im Cool ..
Retired Soldier ..
I know Im a better man than that ..
but Im not sure about Grizz.

to all ..
saw Jim Clancy of CNN fame refer
to "PW ( pik ) Botha" tonight ..
Gee whiz .. I HOPE most of you
know that PW and Pik Botha are
two distinctly different people ..
Talk about HALF smart ..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:44 - ID#317193)
my, my the markets are uncertain.....perhaps there is hope for the one currency....
that is not made of paper. We watch this new...never mind...not yet anyway.

Gold in the $280's for an extended period of time...seems like a move is afoot. A few more shares...RSA...if spot up a couple more dollars...yes. can refer all those questions on hangovers to me...I only need to use my short term memory .: )


(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:45 - ID#284255)
Those seasonal charts have worked so well for 10 years.
It's been one long bull run.

They haven't seen anything like the nervous hoards coming for a long time.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:46 - ID#25171)
I guess he will try to dramatize anything to beef up his image

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:48 - ID#343171)
wag the dog
clinton using military strikes against "terrorist bases in Sudan and Afghanistan", on the radio now...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:48 - ID#339297)
Military strikes in Sudan/Afghanistan
Gees - this guy is scary

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:49 - ID#252150)
Not waiting for Godot@Waiting for all the scholars & self appointed geniuses
& gurus To answer wizened's simple question of last night. "Do you really believe that the U.S.$ is up because of the AU in Fort Knox."

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:49 - ID#411259)
..... When in Doubt.... Bomb .....

The president is using the military
To divert attention from his Willie
This is why he should no longer be
Commander in Chief
He is not worthy

Uh Huh

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:50 - ID#35571)
I wouldn't say the drop was unexpected by the market folks. By some of them admittedly, but just about every old hand in the markets knows that there is usually a summer rally, followed by the post rally slump.

The best time to buy stocks is generally in the early autumn, and the best time to sell in early January. Followed by a play in the late spring to be sold in mid July for the summer rally.

In bull markets, the dips get suppressed and the rallies exagerated. In bear markets the opposite.

Other factors will distort things too. The political cycle for instance. The presidential election year tends to be bullish. The post election year bearish. This is also affected by whether it's a lame duck president in office or not to some extent.

You must realize that wht the fund managers and street brokers tell their prospective clients, and what they actually expect or not expect are two different things....

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:52 - ID#93241)
I was wondering if it would be foreign or domestic threat. There are reports that 25000 lbs. of ammonium nitrate was stolen from a business in western Maryland in the last couple of weeks...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:52 - ID#287340)
@gollum Re: correlation charts
The charts are created by averaging the charts during the last 43 or 85 years which have a high correlation to the last 3 months of the market. The correlation is high because only years which have a high correlation are included.

This makes a lot of sense in the agricultural commodities because you can see how seasonals affect bull, bear or flat markets. Only similar markets are included.

It is probably useful for the stock market also. Just don't be to impressed by the correlation shown so far because only those years which make a good fit are selected.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:55 - ID#290172)
Friday, August 21, 1998
HongKong Business Standard

The Monetary Authority declares it is digging in for a long-term fight against speculators

and, if you like puzzles

"Cryptograms on Gold bars from China"

and, for the paper-people, the perfect gift

Collecting One Billion ( 1,000,000,000 ) China Bank of Hell Note

One could become very fond of the CONCEPT of the "Bank of Hell Note"
{:- ) )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:57 - ID#368244)

Not hard to figure at all, he will do anything, and I do mean anything.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 13:59 - ID#340459)
USA STRIKES AFGHANISTAN & SUDAN, Clinton authorizes Strikes - Is it aimed to reflect attention from
his peccadillo's ?????? Most Likely........

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:00 - ID#35571)
True enough. They do tend to be useful to some short distance ahead just because they are a reflection of past experience. They break apart when an unexpected turn of events occurs.....

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:01 - ID#340459)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:02 - ID#190411)
John Disney
I mentioned the big spread on SGOLY just because it it so large. The stock is rather thinly traded on the ADR market. I did increase my bid.
ABX, I sell today.
Do you know how many ADR shares there are?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:03 - ID#273227)
JD- YAHOO!!!!! Impala is my second largest holding!!! Anyone have a quote on this stock?

sharefin - a few months ago did you post a formual involving the PREM.X as a leading indicator for the PPT? Could you repost that please?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:04 - ID#289357)

Everybody seen this flick? If not, get it today....tomorrow you'll know why.

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:04 - ID#28586)
Anything to divert public attention

Clinter, desperate, will do anything to save his spotted, bloated hide.

This is nothing; the greatest threat to our freedom lies not in Sudan or Afghanistan, but in the White House and its pack of jackals.


John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:05 - ID#24135)
Sorry for Confusion
EB ..
"reversed direction" would have
been much clearer .. He and I plot
the yen in units of yen/$ ie 142.
In futures it is displayed in
units of $/yen .. bottoming ..
topping .. turning around and
going the other way .. means go
long yen.. Many ramifications if
true .. BIG ONE..end of yen carry
trade.. it wont work if yen
gets stronger.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:06 - ID#93241)
Clinton Bunch
...ain't too happy right now. Hilliary probably harder to handle than Ken Starr. "Prepared statements" wouldn't get Bill very far with her. National security sure does come in handy sometimes...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:06 - ID#287312)
Ever notice how the PPT kicks in when
DerArkanfuror speaks.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:07 - ID#343171)
cruise missiles
more rather than less, sooner rather than later....

I faxed letters demanding resignation of clinton to my senators and representative on Tuesday, hope all Americans do it, too many good people have been killed defending our freedoms to sit idly by whilst clinton lewinskys us.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:08 - ID#401237)
Hut attack

The US has just blown up an ant hill in the middle of the Sudan. At least he could get away from Hillary for a while.

Hail to the chief! Long live the Chief. Forget his lieing, it is not as important as the nations national security.

Can we believe he really attacked and what were the targets.

What ever, I am glad he finally did something. If it takes Monica to get him off his butt - fine.

Now we can understand the market action over the last 48 hours. Clinton and his insiderws have made millions.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:27 - ID#225236)
===Silverbaron ( WAG THE DOG ) ID#289357: Everybody seen this flick? If not, get it today....tomorrow you'll know why. ===

Why pay money for it?! Watch the real thing free on CNN. It would be really, really hard to make a joke about Clinton now. The reality has gone above and beyond all the jokes.

Clinton has out-done Nero in all his perverted pursuits and is one horse made senator away from out-doing Caligula. Long live emperor Clinton!!!

I would not be surprised if that dope-loaded imbecile mooned the USA on TV tomorrow and be praised afterward for how "cool" he is.

What else are we to expect? Clinton f***ing Chelsea live on TV and then proclaiming her brother-son his successor to the throne??? After all, "the economy" is sooooo good? Why change a thing?!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:27 - ID#225236)
===Silverbaron ( WAG THE DOG ) ID#289357: Everybody seen this flick? If not, get it today....tomorrow you'll know why. ===

Why pay money for it?! Watch the real thing free on CNN. It would be really, really hard to make a joke about Clinton now. The reality has gone above and beyond all the jokes.

Clinton has out-done Nero in all his perverted pursuits and is one horse made senator away from out-doing Caligula. Long live emperor Clinton!!!

I would not be surprised if that dope-loaded imbecile mooned the USA on TV tomorrow and be praised afterward for how "cool" he is.

What else are we to expect? Clinton f***ing Chelsea live on TV and then proclaiming her brother-son his successor to the throne??? After all, "the economy" is sooooo good? Why change a thing?!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:28 - ID#411259)
..... Damn Eclipses .....

Regarding Puetz and eclipses.

Firstly, ALL solar eclipses happen during a new moon. Since it is the moon which is interspersed twixt the earth and sun, this is the only time this can happen. This means a full moon will always follow the solar eclipse exactly two or six weeks later.

When speaking of lunar eclipses, the converse is the case. A lunar eclipse can only occur when the moon and sun are at opposite sides of the earth. This is also the only time a full moon occurs. ALL lunar eclipses must happen when the moon is full, Therefore, all lunar eclipses will be followed by another full moon four weeks later.

Additionally, eclipses happen all over the globe all the time. The solar system is lousy with eclipses. Most occur over the 90% of the earth that is over water or uninhabited areas. Since heavenly bodies move relative to each other, these eclipses cut a wide swath across the earth sometimes totaling thousands of miles.

So the questions beg to be asked: Where on earth are these eclipses supposed to occur to affect the markets? Across how many time zones? If the eclipse is visible in Europe, does the EMU fail? What about all those eclipses that occur over water, do they count. If not, why not?

Puetz brought this up in the past, and I suggested he go buy a science book because it seems as if the fellow has not the slightest knowledge or common sense regarding physics or the motion of heavenly bodies. It appears as if he has not yet done so, as his eclipse theories are among the most boneheaded ideas I have ever witnessed. If he wants eclipses to affect markets, which eclipses will do so, and why? Why would not an eclipse in Australia cause the ruble to fail?

And most importantly, if the eclipse is followed by a full moon X weeks later, why would this affect markets? A full moon will ALWAYS occur as the specified interval after an eclipse, it can be no other way. Since this is so, how would one determine if a particular eclipse would affect markets? Using Puetzs line of reasoning, all eclipses would be follow by a stock market crash. Since we get about a dozen lunar eclipses per year, and a few solar eclipses, why are not the markets in permanent decline?

Oh, I get it! I see the light ( or lack of it because of the eclipse ) . The theory holds true, but not when applied to equities, but to gold!

Damn eclipses been making my gold go down.

There oughta be a law.

Uh Huh

Mountain Goat
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:29 - ID#35087)
@Clintler's Attack
So, we went from uncertainty ( about Clintler's sexcapades ) , DOW was down
To certainty and his 'apology' ( Ha! ) DOW went back up
To uncertainty again with this attack. DOW is going to do... what?

I know I'm feeling a surge in my gut that Grizz describes as some
sort of impending doom. I feel certain this 'strike' has just
brought that doom closer.

International tensions should be soaring about now.

Just a question for all of you: If the US suddenly and without
warning bombed a spot in YOUR country, even if it seemed provoked,
wouldn't you feel a bit of animosity toward the US?

Do Sudan and Afghanistan have any friends? I'm betting they do.
So: Who have we pissed on, and who have we pissed off?


MG ( Go Gold! A bastion of hope when bastards play war! )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:29 - ID#401237)

Posting Problems


(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:29 - ID#284255)
SDR - welcome back - such sojourns you travel. (:-)))
The prem is the diference between the physical contract - SP500 and the future contract - SP500 Globex.
$INX and SPU8

When the markets started tanking hard, alittle while ago, the futures where falling fast.

So to pull it back, up the PPT goes onto the market and buys up the futures holting the slide.

That last jump was only a small one ( 6 pts ) but quite noticable.

Last Oct when they turned the heat on I think it jumped 26 pts within 5 minutes of Clinton appearing on TV beseaching his fellow country men to not panic and sell.

Oldman said that it was the best buy he'd ever had.
The most profitable.
This last leg of the bull over the last 3 years has been a political rally.
This is the evidence.
Everytime the market gets into a dangerous corrective mode,
The PPT hops in and turns it arround.

To my mind it shows how desperate they are to not have a crash.
They know what's coming and are working to release the pressure slowly.

This is one major drama of playing the short side of the market.
You are betting against the current political regime.
And that has been a tough call.

But sooner rather than later they will not be able to hold the tide.
The fundamentals are already in.
But the reality is not there yet.

And the tide is soon to turn.
And when it turns and runs fast it'll be like a tsunami.

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:31 - ID#24135)
Sorry to hear ..
For Mozel ..
Assuming you have recovered from your recent
lobotomy, could you provide an opinion??
I Know little about this, but wouldn't the Canadian
Supreme Court ruling on Quebec secession be equivalent
to the US supreme court ruling on the secession
of the Southern States ??
Isnt the nature of the court biased and the ruling
predictably self serving ??

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:32 - ID#267344)
Blasts light up Khartoum sky (Sudan)
News Article by REUTERS on August 20, 1998 at 13:35:06:

KHARTOUM, Aug 20 ( Reuters ) - Residents in Khartoum said on
Thursday that they heard explosions after two military jets flew
over the capital.

They said that they saw what looked like three or four
explosions light up the sky in the north of the city. A
policeman on the street said there were explosions in an
industrial area north of the capital.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:33 - ID#343171)
spell clinton with lowercase c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:36 - ID#289357)
Mountain Goat

I don't know about friends, but they sure as hell have a whole bunch of stinger missles.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:39 - ID#343171)
other hot spots to get hotter?
North Korea
Northern Ireland

Silver lining: clinton gets a night in the White House without HRC!!
Now who will be giving him the hummers tonight? Where's Lorainna Bobbitt when you need her, she probably doesn't do baby food though.

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:39 - ID#24135)
Only kidding ..
No idea how many ADR but must be
thin.. there can only be maybe
10 million $ worth outstanding both
local and ADR that Goldfields
doesnt own .. I bought some ADR
too as well as local ..
.. a limit order .. took a week
to fill.. thought it never would.
I really like it.

Aragorn III
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:40 - ID#212323)
James, I'm not saying that you ARE, but don't BE a simpleton.
Your post: Date: Thu Aug 20 1998 13:49
James ( Waiting for all the scholars & self appointed geniuses ) ID#252150:
& gurus To answer wizened's simple question of last night. "Do you really believe that the U.S.$ is up because of the AU in Fort Knox???".

Was that not a rhetorical question? Is it only you who is hanging their life in limbo waiting from the answer that is sure to come? Then allow me to assist, though I do not claim the title of the poster you were waiting for.


That is part of the reason. The dollar did not newly arrive on the scene with this relative strength it has today. There is an ongoing worldwide evolution of money, and a fundamental building block for the presently-evolved strength of the US Dollar was the gold held by the US. And also its military. And its political/economic structure. Of these three TODAY, the presence or absence of Au in Fort Knox is the least important by all appearances.

Wizened touched on many topics in his post...many fabrics of thought twisting and crossing in the gentle breeze of the muses. Why must you grab at one thread and nearly hang yourself? ( THAT, is a rhetorical question )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:40 - ID#208393)
Quickie Economics Quiz

- The U.S. starts lobbing cruise missiles at Afghanistan & Sudan.
- The U.S. President is severely humiliated in a sex scandal.
- Russia devalues its currency by 30%.
- Banks fail in Russia and Japan
- Currencies world-wide teeter on the brink.
- Asia is in the depths of an economic crisis.
- The Stock Market sits on a record high overvalued bubble that is expected to burst at any time.

Question: What does Gold do?

a ) Skyrockets to Cheesehead land.
b ) Drops steadily.
c ) Just sits there
d ) Drops into the abyss.

I used to know the right answer. Today, who knows?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:41 - ID#348129)
@When in doubt, BOMB
High Willie is becoming a little to predictable. By attacking Muslims, he is putting every US citizen directly in the line of fire. They will hit back twice as hard to retaliate......

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:43 - ID#410198)
Remember the good old days when gold to be up $20 or more on news like this

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:44 - ID#284255)
RJ (..... Damn Eclipses .....)
I think it's more that they, ( eclipses ) do have a certain effect on us mere mortals.
The moon was truly my friend, when I was a salty fisherman - indeedy.

Perchance when all is well, they twist our psyches positive like.
But when fear is in the air, they bounce us around in the opposite direction.

I know not, but I do/did worship the moon, for it's influence on my catching prowess.

If something happens, we can always blame it on that old man moon.
Either way.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:44 - ID#227108)
The fact that anyone watching this unfold has to ask themselves, "Are we attacking because of a real danger to the US or to distract the people from Clinton's personal problems?" The fact that we are presented with this question shows a clear failure of Clinton to continue to lead.

I believe Clinton's strategy will backfire as leaders of other countries voice their concerns about this attack.

Government and military leaders will stay out of sight until it is clear that this is a wasted use of our military.

Clinton's pollsters must have reported back that he is falling fast in the polls and must 'do something'. I am sure the Pentagon has a list of targets they would love to remove....

What will Clinton do when Starr's report goes to the House? Attack Cuba? Iraq? No, it must be something that is dramatic, quickly done, but without risk of return attack. Sudan. Yeh, that's the ticket.

This is amazing.

( And, this will not help gold as no one will believe this is a real 'international issue' enough to buy or sell gold. )


(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:44 - ID#340459)
They hit a private medical components factory in Sudan and Pentagon is back with their suspect maps
scare stories of chemical factory. How can you strike a soveriegn country, why did USA get hopping mad when Russia struck Afghanistan.


USA has become morally and spiritually bankrupt, it remains to be seen how long the Wall Street euphoria lasts with the citizens, who are blind to due process of law, sanctity of other nations property.

Clinton is stoking anti US feelings around the world just to save himself from sordid phone and oral sex..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:44 - ID#290281)
Agree, this is one biggggg "Wag the Dog"

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:45 - ID#257344)
Wag the Dog?
One of the reporters at the Pentagon briefing was asking the obvious questions and even mentioned that this sounds a lot like the movie!

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:45 - ID#24135)
Oh by the way ..
James ..
let me know when you go to bed
so Ill know when Im supposed to
stop posting .. Dont wanna be
cowardly and sleazy ..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:45 - ID#289357)

Hmmmmmmmm.....didn't they fight the Russians for about 10 years and WIN?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:46 - ID#267344)
Sudan on its knees [Editorial]
August 14, 1998

Johannesburg - Many of our readers will find the pictures of famine in southern Sudan which we have published deeply distressing. Some may feel that this is a visual invasion of privacy which should not be allowed. Others may wonder whether such appeals to our consciences are not just a short-term palliative: is there not a better way to tackle human disaster - made by humans - on such a catastrophic scale?

These are difficult questions involving both judgment and principle, but in the meantime we are absolutely sure of the need to jolt both the public and governments into greater awareness. The war-made famine in southern Sudan is one of the world's greatest catastrophes: nearly two million have already died from fighting and consequent famine in the past decade

and a half.

The United Nations World Food Programme says that 1,2-million more people are at risk of death from hunger in the next few months. In Ajiep, where these photographs were taken, people are living on the leaves of trees. Food supply by UN planes does not meet half the demand. At least one child dies in the feeding centre a day. It is as much hell on earth as a

battlefield, a concentration camp, or the scene of ethnic genocide.

Southern Sudan has always been a harsh, dry place to live in and the climate has worsened in recent years. It is expensive and difficult to send in emergency supplies and even more so to begin to rebuild a devastated agricultural infrastructure. But the root cause of the famine is not the weather or the remoteness. It is the pitiless war conducted by the Khartoum regime towards the people of the sub- Saharan south who have never been regarded as equal citizens. The southern cause is not a shining one: local warlords steal aid supplies and inflict more misery on the civilian population. Yet the situation has to be dealt with as it is, not in some ideal framework.

Western countries are certainly no friends of the radical Islamic regime in Khartoum, but most humanitarian aid is channeled through arrangements which allow it ultimate veto power. This is partly out of deference to the formal requirements of respect for "national sovereignty". It is also, less explicitly, because the United States and other countries fear that increased rebel activity in the south - encouraged by large-scale food aid - could lead to the fragmentation of Sudan, causing further geopolitical upheavals in the region.

These arguments should pale into nothingness when set against the immense suffering of so many people. They are crying out of hunger, collapsing from weakness, dying without even a patch of shade: they should get far more aid, and get it directly.

We have not published the worst photographs taken at Ajiep. One shows a woman crouched on her knees in the earth, giving birth as a friend supports her from behind. A dead man with his eyes protruding from his sockets lies a few feet away. There are pictures of live children seemingly as thin as sticks, and one of a dead child being buried in a tiny hole in the sand. There is no denying that there are limits to what can be shown visually: in some cases words may convey the message more effectively. But the assault on consciences has to be made.

It is precisely to focus attention upon the war and the policies which cause more people to die that there must be more pictures, more words and more protest. The people who are dying in Ajiep and many other places cannot wait till another way of tackling human disaster has been found.

Copyright  1998 Mail and Guardian. Distributed via Africa News Online ( )

PH in LA
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:46 - ID#225408)
Thank you, sir, for your reply to my post "indiscrimate Justice for All".

I had rather expected responses from more of your kind, including especially JTF.

But that is the beauty of unreasoned mud slinging. Throw enough of it and hope some sticks, somwhere.

Unfortunately, in your case, it only seems to stick to the throwing hand.

I bow to the superiority of your simple-mindedness in this case. But before I do, allow me the following question: Where do you position your own remarks which I quote ""Impeach the Lying, Manipulative, Thieving, Con-Artist Now". Is it #1 ( fear ) or #2 ( anger ) ? It must be nice to be able to reduce all your perception to 4 ( updatable to 5 ) states of mind. Where does satire or humor fit into your mindset?

PS. Please feel free to address any of the issues I raised in my prior post. If you can bring yourself to see the world in terms of anything other than sex organs, that is.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:49 - ID#340459)
You can see deceit and fear in clinton's eyes while making the strike statement.
America back this rat with your polls and he will lead you to an abyss for sure.......

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:49 - ID#402151)
charts are promising
My post from saturday indicated cautious optimism.Today's action and the unlikelihood of a selloff tomorrow means that weekly gold has probably made a bottom. Next week will confirm it, but this week is the time to buy options. They're very cheap in light of the normal violent movement off of chart formations shaped like this. Tomorrow should be a dull day. Gold over 330 before November

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:50 - ID#340459)
You can see deceit and fear in clinton's eyes while making the strike statement.
America back this rat with your polls and he will lead you to an abyss for sure.......

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:50 - ID#427357)

Alan Greenspan trades his stocks for T-bills.

FRB Chairman Greenspan, indisputably the most power financial force in the world today, has moved his personal investments from a blind equity
trust into short-term Treasury bills, appearing to confirm Wall Street's hunch that the Federal Reserve Chairman is expecting the US economy to dip into recession. Mr Greenspan withdrew from the blind trust during the past 12 months. He now owns $2.4 million in Treasury bills.

As a result of his government bond purchase, Mr Greenspan now sets the interest rate on his own investment. The Fed is in charge of adjusting economy-wide interest rates through the yield on government benchmark bonds. While the rest of the economy wants lower interest rates, Mr Greenspan will get richer if he raises rates. In addition to the $2.4 million in government bonds, he also holds about $1 million in cash.

All the above is public knowledge. What no one has venture to speculate upon is how much GOLD the Fed Chairman is squirreling away. Anyone who deludes himself into believing Mr. Greenspan is not accumulating GOLD is either totally nave or just ignorant of history.

Mr. Greenspan has been an overt Gold Standard advocate for over 30 years.
He even reminded people of this in his last televised Congressional testimony.

Greenspan may be called many things, but never "SCHMUCK."

Greenspan is an unabashed GOLDBUG. For those who still are in doubt,
they may read the Fed Chairman's own words at the following URL.

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet:

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:51 - ID#377196)
I am no friend of Bill
but I am going to take this attact on terrorists at face value.
What is this Country supposed to do after being attacked by someone
who has said that is what they intend to do. For the military to
just stand by is treason.

I'm letting this one go. Hurray for the good guys.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:54 - ID#153102)
Ne'er fear. Lobes intact. Somebody should take the big word book away from James and put it out of reach before he hurts himself with it.

Yes, in theory, in answer to your question. I haven't actually read the decision, however.

Aragorn III
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:55 - ID#212323) probably counts for nothing, but...
I thought your "...eclipses happen all over the globe all the time. The solar system is lousy with eclipses...." was the niftiest phrase of the day. In fact, very often your posts are lousy with niftiness.

Crusty...regarding your recent post to James...I didn't consider that same notion when I posted. I hope I have not similarly incurred the spite owed to a coward.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:56 - ID#340459)
Gold Dancer, Do you believe in due process of law, why are we not stringing serial rapists in town
squares ? Doesnt soveriegn countries have rights, Do you strike without evidence, Is this what you believe are tenets of good guys ????

Mountain Goat
(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:59 - ID#35087)
@Gold Dancer RE: 14:51
I am in agreement that the US did need to make a statement that
bombing our people wouldn't be tolerated. And you can't reason
with folks that bomb embassies... You have to meet force with force.

But the timing is pretty uncanny...

The question is: Will the terrorists see this as a frightening
reminder that if they hurt America, America will strike back?
Or will they go rent Wag The Dog, and decide it was political?


MG. ( Go Gold! )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 14:59 - ID#289357)
Hot News

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:00 - ID#343171)
I don' care I'll lie more

I don' care I'll lie more

I don' care I'll lie more

( clinton does farfel )

Spud Master
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:00 - ID#28586)
@PH in LA
PH in LA,

It's OK -- I understand your humiliation and anger at having cast your lot with a man who is a venal criminal; an admitted liar; a man who will not flinch to stoop to *ANYTHING* to save his POWER, even panicked, wild military strikes. My word ... the bad Sudanese have been murdering half their population for years, but only now, coincidentally does Clinton figure out that they are baddies.

... and once the Starr report is released to Congress, the full corruption, deception and criminality of the Clinton gang will be revealed. You must let go now, and cleanse your spirit of this contamination, before this ultimate crushing blow strikes your ego.

America must be led by men and women of honor, integrity, decency and morality.

Clinton has none of those qualities.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:03 - ID#368244)
If you find anything good and decent in this
may God help you. Mr. Clinton will never step down, not even on election day.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:05 - ID#359316)
When I dial up, the modem tells me "COMPRESSION: V.42 BIS"-
do you think it's trying to tell me something?

Like the BIS is "42", the answer to life, the universe,
and everything? And why on earth do they want to
prop up the POG at $280? If PPTs are doomed to failure
at propping up the stock markets ( e.g. Hong Kong ) , why
should the BIS be any more successful in ultimately
holding the POG up?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:06 - ID#340459)
@Spud Master - Agree with you whole heartedly...Where is the evidentiary base to strike, Will USA
continue to allow Clinton to take unilateral action that might seriously backfire abroad...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:07 - ID#153102)
I hope you are wrong, but you may be right. I think continuing in Office beyond the appointed term was in his plan.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:09 - ID#340459)
Cohen: The ONLY motive of attack on Afghans and Sudanese is to protect US citizens - go figure..

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:10 - ID#377196)
If there was not substantial evidence the military would not
risk a high blemish on their record. The militarty tells the
President what it thinks he should do.

A bomb attack on an embassy is an act of war. Some people out there
hate us. My gripe with my country is with it's fiat currency and
all that that represents.

I don't like Clinton. If anything, I am sure he is glad to have some distraction from the gathering storm around him.

I don't think he is doing this like the movies. Hundreds of people
were killed with the promise of hundreds or thousands more. The
military did the right thing. If they botched up, which I doubt, we
will hear about it.

If I didn't have ANY faith in our govt. I would not live here.
I don't plan on moving any time soon. I will fight for honest money
and accountability.


Thanks, GD

Early Riser
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:10 - ID#228275)
Martial Law
Isure, I agree with you. Now terrorists will strike back while we are lead by our joke of a president, and then he can declare martial law under emergency powers. That will finally get Ken Starr off his back. I would not have taken this scenario seriously a week ago, but do now.

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:11 - ID#24135)
Central Africa
My dumbo leader Nellie Mandela has SPLIT with the
worse than awful R. Mugabe of Zimbabwe over intervention
in Zaire. Mugabe at the southern African Regional
Community meeting had proposed Joint Military intervention
to save Kabila from the sausage machine.
Angola ( Dos Santos obviously ) .. supported the position
along with Namibia .. ( all old enemies of Savimbi ) .
Mandela opposed any such intervention .. I was
pleasantly surprised.
However was HORRIFIED to hear that Russia plans to
assist upgrading the ANGOLAN army .. Brother Oris ..
please do what you can to screw this up.. My brother
Savimbi needs this like a hole in the head

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:12 - ID#340459)
Israel official statement salutes United States for the Strike..
We are also waiting for rousing cheers from g-7, European countries now..

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:18 - ID#17077)
Loss of Faith in Clinton is Final Nail in the Coffin.
Over the past year, I wrote often about the THREE imperative factors that would precipitate a major upswing in the price of GOLD.

1 ) Equities Bear Market.
2 ) Bonds Bear Market.
3 ) US Dollar Bear Market.

Many times, I stressed that all points of the preceding triangle must occur simultaneously in order to trigger a major GOLD bull. The reason: the US Dollar had supplanted GOLD this decade as kind of "new, ersatz gold."

Although, occasionally we have witnessed the phenomenon of weak equities markets occurring along with weak bond markets, nevertheless, we have yet to really see a notable, substantive weakening in the US Dollar.

The US Dollar has remained unusually strong over the past few years.

But people should note: the US Dollar is ultimately a paper debt instrument backed by THE GOOD FAITH OF THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT.

Now, with the revelations of blatant lying and deception on the part of the American president, the good faith of the American government has devolved into a kind of oxymoron.

As long as Clinton remains in power, the good faith of the American government will be questioned by the majority of its trading partners...not to mention its enemies!

Unfortunately, the odds favor that the new direction of the American Dollar will be a slowly escalating downward spiral. Yes, it's true that America has been a beneficiary of foreign flight capital to date. However, this flight has been based on the unequivocal belief that America is a safe, secure, country...a good place to do business...where America's politicians and business leaders can ALWAYS be trusted -- especially relative to other countries leaders..

When the Chief Executive of the USA proves himself to unworthy of trust...when rampant cynicism spreads like a wildfire across both America and the globe, then all hell may break loose in the extant global financial order.

Unfortunately, it may already be too late to repair the damage done via the installation of a new President.

What is the consequence for Gold?

The Gold rocket is on the launch's engines are beginning to roar. The countdown can be delayed for a while but the Law of Perpetual Motion favors the rocket will be launched at any moment.



(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:18 - ID#342256)
Enough about Clinton's evil motives

Don't get too mad at me now...but it seems to me that WJC is learning from RR and GHWB.

Remember, we bombed Mohamar Khaddafi's *house* in 1986 ... in clear
violation of laws forbidding assasination attempts on individuals. Who did RR think lived there....Bugs Bunny?

Anybody wanna talk about gold?


(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:20 - ID#289357)
Oh my! This is VERY interesting!

Check out Aug 20th on this forecast:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:20 - ID#340459)
Gold Dancer, Arlen Specter says that inspite of him being on Security committee, he was not
consulted, He said that he does not know anything about evidentiary base to strike another country. He said there has been successful laws that US has used to extradite Terrorists and try them here under Law.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:24 - ID#350179)
Not related to prior thread...
Gritty Research Leads Scientists To Metal-Loving Discovery

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:24 - ID#431200)
The value of the Canadian dollar should be around 68 cents US,
Thursday 20 August 1998
Dollar near right level, study says
The Vancouver Sun
Petti Fong Vancouver Sun With Sun News Services
The value of the Canadian dollar should be around 68 cents US, primarily reflecting the downward trend in world commodity prices, Royal Bank chief economist John McCallum says in a study released Wednesday.
A further 10-per-cent rise or fall in global commodity prices would raise or lower the value of the loonie by about three cents US, he said.
In other words, the dollar is within a couple of cents of where it should be, the study suggests, and has not been at the mercy of pure speculation.
McCallum rules out levels of taxation or the size of government as main drivers of the dollar's decline, refuting claims by the opposition Reform and Progressive Conservative parties that tax cuts would stop the slide.
"The gap between Canada and the U.S. in terms of size of government or taxation has been shrinking since 1992, so this variable cannot possibly explain the recent weakness of the currency."
A Fraser Institute study by director Michael Walker argued that the long term decline of the Canadian dollar could be explained by the rising size of government or the level of Canadian taxation relative to the U.S.
But McCallum rejected that study in his analysis, citing skepticism about the relevance of variables such as government spending in predicting the level of the currency.
Fraser Institute financial analyst Owen Lippert said Wednesday that McCallum should have used taxation as the variable in his calculations rather than government spending.
"Ultimately taxes must rise to cover government spending, but there's a lag between government spending and the taxes to pay for it," he said.
The Fraser Institute study concluded that 71 per cent of the fall in the dollar can be attributed to spending.
"But the way to measure it is not on the basis of spending, but on debt and taxes, which are the consequences of that spending," Lippert said.
Spending and taxes don't show up in the government's finances at the same time. Taxes follow the spending, Lippert said.
But, in his analysis, McCallum argues that tax cuts would worsen Canada's economic situation.
"Panicky moves to cut taxes substantially and immediately would probably do more harm than good via higher market-determined interest rates," he says.
"The market could perceive this as a U-turn in Ottawa's commitment to a balanced budget."
Canada is better off accepting a devalued currency than risking a recession that would be brought on by higher interest rates, he said.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:27 - ID#368244)
Gold and Silver

They were both up today. The fact of a bombing in Sudan and whats the name of that other country, probably had nothing to do with it. Cassandra if you play the metals, such events do have an impact. Maybe you should try another commodity.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:35 - ID#377196)
Mountain Goat
One of the great problems everyone faces is trying to figure
what is cause and what is effect. What is the reason, if any, for
some events to take place at the same time.

Sometimes there is a reason sometimes there is no relationship. At
least not directly. I think this is one of those times.

Yes, I understand "Wag the Dog". I think it is bigger than that
if anything. With the dollar vulnerable one way for the US to keep it
up ( pun not intented! ) is to make a show of strength.

But even here I think is just a case of us getting bombed and
striking back. Will this help Clinton? I doubt it very much.
Is he doing this to help himself? I doubt it. He is doing it because
he has to. The military told him that and he had to strike back.

On to gold. Will it help gold? I don't know. Gold is up but
not enough to excite anyone into buying gold stocks in a big way.
I think this is going to be a long process. I am tired already.

At 55 it is hard to have patience when one has lost 60% or more.
And I didn't buy anywhere near the top. I will just have to wait.

Thanks. GD

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:40 - ID#224363)
Bill...Bill...Bill, Just what are you up to
First it was a game of Wag the Hot Dog with Monica et al

Now it seems to be a game of Wag the Dog with Islamic Fundementalists

Maybe this will be viewed as the event that started the decline of the $US ( or maybe it will just be viewed as another silly move by a politician ) . Will be interesting to hear what the 'allied' and 'non-allied' nations have to say.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:40 - ID#200334)
In war there is no Due process, either kill or be killed. It is in the best intrest of the United St
ates to do everything within its power to stop terrorism, even to cross international borders. It is absurd to believe other wise, when foreign states openly support these terrorist groups it is as if they are decalaring war on us. Get real the United States is never going to back down again from these cowards, who don't stand for anything good int his world.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:41 - ID#246224)
I think it was mentioned here by more than a few that they thought ..
that some kind of military action ( bombing was mentioned ) would come out after the 'monday confession'. Well, I suppose you were right. It is a tragic day when we can not trust that this president is in fact doing what is in our interests rather then in his. A cloud has formed and its dark shadow obscures the sun above our heads and our land.

1 ) By definition anything that we bomb must be our enemy.

2 ) We have made a precedent of bombing other countries at our whim.

3 ) We, of course, would not bomb a big or powerful country, only little impoverished ones.

4 ) We has a commander-in-chief whose personal and moral behaviour cause us to doubt his veracity in this matter as well as anything else which might look like 'wag da dog' stuff.

5 ) We only have this government to depend upon for information about this business.

6 ) Just war theory ( regarding not targeting civilians ) developed over the past 500 years has been tossed out the window in order to 'deal with terrorists'. Bombs kill indiscriminately. The idea that these 'smart' weapons are capable of 'surgical' precision in destroying only 'bad guys' is trash thinking.

7 ) Impeachment is over due here. I just telephoned my concerns to my Senator to push impeachment. BC is no longer capable of maintaining our respect or trust in general. This situation only proves that we can not have him remain in office any longer.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:42 - ID#350179)
Strikes 'planned for a week'

State-run television announces attack on `strategic targets'

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:43 - ID#238422)
John Disney
My dear brother John,

Your request to screw up Angolan army upgrading
is taken by me as close to my heart as physiologically
possible. I will immediately proceed with my plan to
screw-up this ridiculous upgrading, and will report
to you as soon as complete screw-up is achived. I expect
this screw-up of upgrading to be transformed into downgrading
to the degree which world had never witnessed...

In return, my brother, give me advice - should I hit
blooper with all the power of electrified sh*t, which
is stored intact since the end of the Ziva Wars, or
should I let other Kitco brothers to have fun? I'm
in hesitation....

Say Hi to Ben for me.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:44 - ID#222107)
Vronksy: The 1973-74 recession, caused by the OPEC oil embargo ( or "Energy Crisis" ) , is a EXCELLENT comparison to the coming problems caused by Y2K issues. Two key points to remember:

1. Some folks did extremely well in the Energy Crisis! Examples are oil exploration, nuclear, and insulation companies. In the "Y2K crisis", people are going to make fortunes repairing broken systems. The Big Six consulting companies, for example, will supply resources to figure out how to patch-up old systems so they can limp along, and then figure-out and install long-term solutions.

2. People can panic ( 1929 style ) when something causes problems, and they cant understand why. The public could understand the reasons behind the "Energy Crisis". Less oil meant higher prices. They even had a bad guy: some imaginary rich Arab that wanted money. They will NOT UNDERSTAND why their electricity is going out frequently, their ATMs dont work, their insurance company lost their policy, or why their hospitals CAT scan machine wont work...

On another note, would I love to be a reporter at the next Presidential Press Conference:

* Mr. President, who gave you THAT tie?

* Whats that on your pants? Did you have yogurt for breakfast?

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:51 - ID#377196)
You sound like one of those liberals. Lets make everything nice.
Let's just fly into Afgan. and pick up those bad boys and fly them
home for a trial. Who are you kidding!! This is war of a kind.

With terrorists you can't fight fair or you are going to lose.
Arlen wasn't invited because no one was invited to the planning
sessions. No more screw ups that can get our guys killed. No more
chances that anything can leak out. They did it the way I would have.

In secret.

I, as much as anyone, would like peace on earth and goodwill towards
everyone. It just does not exist at this time in our evolution.

Back to gold. The XAU seems to have bottomed at the 60 level once
again. There is a cycle low in October but cycles can bottom early.
We will not know till then. I think it bottomed early.

Still look for surprisingly strong rally when it starts with
hugh moves in the stocks in a matter of a few days. Buy when things
are quiet. When things turn you will be left out for good.

Thanks, GD

Early Riser
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:53 - ID#228275)
Gold Demand
Our Pres ( USA ) , God bless him, has given US citizens a reason to own gold. He and Hillary will stop at nothing, and are totally unprincipled with regard to whatever it takes to keep themselves in power. When they have established control of everything, including deferring of elections until "stability and safety" can be assured,
it would be nice to have some of the physical. Wish I had more of it. At least if the price goes up because people start to get concerned about this, my gold stocks should benefit, until WJC takes over the mines. Perhaps best not to invest in USA gold stocks now.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:55 - ID#368244)

This subject is at an end as for as I am concerned, I say open every prison and let everyone go. What have thy done that is not admired in the president. I ask you to name one thing. Thats all, will not say anything more on this matter.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:58 - ID#246224)
Arlin Spector and other representatives of the American people ..
who are briefed on international actions must tell us if they knew about this and reviewed the information before a strike was done. The reason for this is cross powers checks and balances. These reporting structures ( initiated after the Vietnam War ) are there for this very reason: to stop indiscriminant actions by wayward presidents or militaries. The Congressional and Senate committees are watchdogs here.

If BC did not consult with them then this INDEED is looking bad. Again, we are talking about leadership in balance here. A man under fire can not keep up the kind of relationships which assure at least a muting of extremis. This is my concern. If he acted without informing the appropriate people on the Legislative side of the Capitol, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT DEBACLE OF HIS PERSONAL SCANDAL AND ITS IMPLICATIONS AS REGARDS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS MOTIVES AND INTEGRITY, then this itself shows he is losing his grip on the very real and necessary realities of governance in these United State of America.

This is the problem we are facing. He must leave in order to restore some sense of normalcy to the processes of government in this country.

Gandalf the White
(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:59 - ID#433301)
DJIA closed at 8,611.41 Down only 81.87 points today 8/20/98
Gollum, a tip of the pointy hat to you !
you were far closer to the down calc than I.
I must now make some adjustments to the Crystal Ball.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 15:59 - ID#267344)
Three cheers for the president of lies, the snake!
I find it incredible that anyone on this forum would support the actions against Sudan and Afganistan today, that they are willing to trust and support a president who has an incredible record of misuse of power. I don't trust presidents in general, but I might support these actions more if there was not so much evidence discrediting the wisdom and character of this president. To commit these acts when the he does not have the trust of his own country is complete foolishness. Regardless of whether or not these actions were warranted, this president needs to resign because he can no longer function effectively as president - he is depicted as self serving and careless.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:01 - ID#254269)
Advance Notice; Allen, saw a posting on Freerepublic that Newt was
given advance notice but Trent Lott was not. Don't know how accurate, if at all. This scumbag's actions are becoming extremely dangerous.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:04 - ID#219363)
repost- 20 Aug 98
Just re-posting something I posted at about 1am this morning, no particular reason really.


He stood still in the sun's heat overlooking the banks of the river, heart racing, and closed his eyes, trying to steady himself. He listened, quietly, and heard the whispered voices of the others along the crest of the hill and thought of the rumors he had heard around the fire the night before. Mind spinning, anticipation - how had he been brought to this place to fight such an enemy ? He tried to clear his mind once again and focused on the weight of steel in his hand, the smell on the breeze of dust and labor, the beating sun on his shoulders. He thought for a moment that he might walk to the river, to satisfy his thirst, but the battle would soon be at hand, and he quickly decided against it. He took a deep breath and opened his eyes as whispers turned to shouts and orders - across the river the battle formed. Another breath - his eyes filled with horror, and after moments of resolve, his heart to stone.

On this day, the 20th of August, in the year of our Lord six hundred thirty six - the Byzantine emperor Heraclius had gathered a large army which met the Muslim army at the Battle of the Yarmuk in Syria. 200000 Greeks, Syrians, Mesopotamians and Armenians clashed with 24000 of Allah's warriors on the river Al-Yarmuk [Hieromax] in one of the bloodiest battles recorded. Accounts tell of Greek soldiers chaining together their troops so that they would not take flight, and of muslim women and children joining the battle. By battle's end, 70000 men had been killed on the side of the Greeks and they were scattered in defeat.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:06 - ID#401237)
There are only 2 in green


(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:11 - ID#267344)
Gold Dancer
If you have to resort to referring to someone's opinions as liberal to try to rally support for your points than perhaps you should try them at your local junior high students where references like that still hold a little clout among the groupies and their followers. There more people might listen. I don't think such references have any productive use here.

The Hatt
(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:12 - ID#364255)
The mood Is changing on senior golds!
For the second day in a row the trading patterns have improved on ABX and PDG. There is little doubt that the shorts must be getting a tad nervous as they watch the upside activity improve two days in a row. It will be an interesting day tommorow to see how many of these traders have guts enough to hold their positions over the weekend.
There is something going on behind the scenes here and my guess is that Russia and its problems are about to uncover a massive derivitives problem which incidently would not hurt gold. This default will and i repeat will reach into the US Markets. Today was further evidence that the the earlier rally was nothing more than a BEAR TRAP! The experts predicted that the market was over-sold so one has to wonder now HOW THIN IS THE AIR BELOW THIS MARKET!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:13 - ID#335190)
Land of the FREE @ USofA
I am sorry that the USofA Citizen's, have given away the promise, of the founders of the USofA. ( The Declaration of Independence July 04,1776. )

These bombings today, are nothing more than business taking care of business. Embassies, and their staff, are operations of international corporations, paid for in total, by the tax dollars of the citizen's of the USofA.

Yes, the Opposition in Congress, approved, and are supporting the bombing. United in corporate war eh!

I am sorry, also, that many USofA citizen's ( Joe sixpak's ) visiting around the world, will now have a greater feeling of uncertainty, with their personal safety when travelling. Obviously, many USofA citizen's ( government types ) , will be presenting themselves as Canadians EH!

The USofA Government, are all a rats nest of elected JERKS!
Yes, a view from a Canadian.
Take Care.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:19 - ID#431200)
How old is Monica?


Say what you will about Monica Lewinsky, she's got good taste in ties.

Fashion followers give her a big thumbs up for her penchant for Zegna ties - like the ones she gave President Clinton.

"It's a handsome tie - colorful without being garish, very chief executive," Esquire magazine executive editor Scott Omelianuk said.

"He's worn worse - and she's worn worse."

The Ermenegildo Zegna tie has become the talk of the town since it was discovered that Clinton wore it in public appearances on Aug. 6 - the same day Lewinsky testified before the Sexgate grand jury.

His choice of occasions may be questionable to political observers, but fashion observers can find little wrong with the stately navy-and-gold neck piece.

For those uninitiated into the world of exclusive menswear, Zegna ties cost from $110 to $135. The Italian-based company has 200 international boutiques, not to mention displays at departments stores like Saks and Barneys.

Zegna's demographic is fairly narrow: Their ideal customer is over 30 and nets an annual salary of at least $150,000. Such Hollywood hunks as Alec Baldwin, Ted Danson and Denzel Washington sport the label's style.

The company recently provided costumes for "Civil Action," starring John Travlota - last seen on the big screen playing a Clintonesque president in "Primary Colors."

Melonee McKinney, market editor at the daily menswear publication DNR, calls Zegna ties instantly recognizable status symbols.

A saleswoman at the Fifth Avenue store reports there have been "at least 100" calls about the suddenly scandalous tie.

Zegna's spokesman refused to comment.

Closer to the White House, salespeople in the tie department at Nordstrom in Pentagon City Mall in northern Virginia told The Post they've stocked Zegna ties for two years.

Though no one recalled selling a tie to Lewinsky, they acknowledged it was a possibility. The former intern worked at the nearby Pentagon, and the Ritz Carlton Hotel, where she was cornered by the FBI in January, is adjacent to the mall.

There hasn't been this much attention paid to a fashion piece since the Bruno Magli shoes in the O.J. Simpson civil trial, one fashion insider noted.

And while the tie's symbolic origins will surely continue to baffle within the Beltway, there are even larger questions on more sartorially inquiring minds.

"How can someone on an intern's salary afford to spend $120 on a silk tie to give away?" Omelianuk asked.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:25 - ID#246224)
Not talking 'notice' here talking 'review'. The members of the committees need to be presented with sustantive evidence and rational for the action, not simple a note telling them what is about to happen. The reason for this is so that if the people's representatives find the arguement for action implausible they can give the President and his people that feedback on it. Group think is a powerful force in highly charged command situations. It is very difficult for people to break out of the 'think' if they do not see it the same way as the guy in charge. This consultive role of the committees is to help provide some perspective from oa group of people who are not part of the President's cadre, who are not threatened if they dissent from the thinking of the group.

It is an invaluable contribution which should never be bypassed. I will be waiting to see what thes ecommittee member say about this.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:30 - ID#350179)
This dog has many tails...
Tajikistan, Russia worry as Taleban nears border

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:30 - ID#431200)
Lewinsky insisting that Clinton told her they had a


WASHINGTON - Monica Lewinsky makes an encore grand-jury appearance today amid reports President Clinton has given a DNA sample to Sexgate investigator Kenneth Starr to be tested against her "love dress."

In another bad sign for the White House, Lewinsky was described as "outraged" at reports that her role in her relationship with Clinton was merely to service him sexually - insisting that Clinton told her they had a "future together" after his presidency.

Reports said Lewinsky is set to tell the grand jury that Clinton lied under oath because they did have sex that would meet even the narrow definition that Clinton says he was using.

In her previous testimony she also said that Clinton's personal secretary, Betty Currie, came to her to retrieve gifts that Clinton had given her after she and the president discussed a subpoena to produce those gifts, The Washington Post's website said today.

It said Clinton's account of what happened to the gifts differs from both Lewinsky's and Currie's.

Clinton acknowledged that in December he discussed the gifts with Lewinsky and testified that he told her she would have to turn over any gifts still in her possession.

But Lewinsky said Currie approached her and asked for the gifts. Currie showed up at her Watergate apartment unannounced to collect the gifts, a source told the newspaper.

Concealing the gifts could be obstruction of justice since it violated a subpoena in the Paula Jones case. Clinton reportedly was "evasive" under oath Monday about his role in hiding them.

And in a bizarre twist, some reports said Linda Tripp, Monica's onetime friend who sparked Sexgate with her secret tapes of Lewinsky, was slated to testify again today - but a well-placed source said that was wrong.

Starr's request for Clinton's DNA sample is virtual assurance that Lewinsky's blue dress tested positive for a semen stain that contains DNA, possibly Clinton's.

Starr got the sample from Bethesda Naval Hospital, where Clinton gets his medical care, before his testimony Monday and Clinton lawyer David Kendall didn't object, The Washington Post reported.

Today's testimony is an encore for Lewinsky, who previously testified Aug. 6, the same day Clinton wore a gold and navy blue tie that she gave him.

Lewinsky reportedly asked Clinton to wear the tie when he wanted her to know that she was still close to his heart.

Clinton could have another legal problem for holding on to the gifts, because Starr sent Clinton a subpoena in January that reportedly demanded all gifts that Clinton got from Lewinsky.

Fox News reported that Lewinsky has a "feeling of betrayal" about Clinton and that Clinton suggested they had a future. Fox said Clinton cleared many of Lewinsky's 37 visits to the White House though he claimed she was visiting Currie.

Another source said it was more accurate to describe Lewinsky as "hurt," noting Clinton is "the same person who stood in the Rose Garden and said, "I never had sex with that woman.'"

Clinton reportedly told the grand jury Monday he received oral sex from Lewinsky but didn't believe that act constituted "sexual relations" as defined in the Paula Jones case - because essentially she was performing sex on him and he wasn't doing anything to gratify her.

Clinton didn't answer detailed questions about sex with Lewinsky because, said Kendall, prosecutors were getting too "intrusive."

CNN reported last night that Clinton was asked about the dress, the gifts, the exact nature of his relationship with Lewinsky and "about Kathleen Willey" - the White House volunteer who accused Clinton of groping her. His responses were often "hostile and defiant," a source told CNN.

One subject that has not been made public also came up in the questioning - and Clinton reacted in a "surprised and hostile" manner, CNN said.

Ex-Justice Department lawyer Todd Gaziano said it's likely Lewinsky will get hit with the specific questions about sex that Clinton refused to answer.

"It's a real shame that the president is putting Monica through this again," Gaziano said. "He continues to manipulate her."

Prosecutors are expected to ask Lewinsky detailed questions about Clinton's sworn testimony. The goal is to determine if Clinton lied under oath before a grand jury about possible obstruction of justice and witness tampering.

Also, prosecutors probably will want to ask Lewinsky about Clinton's memory of the conversations they had about how to respond to the subpoena for Lewinsky's testimony in the Jones case.

Experts say Lewinsky's reported anger at Clinton could make her a troublesome witness for the president.

"If the president has denied facts from Miss Lewinsky's testimony, he has rather directly called her a liar," said legal scholar Jonathan Turley.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:33 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re VIX.X
I tried the URL,s without luck. Specially interested in the chart info. Thanx, Charlie

John Disney__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:36 - ID#24135)
thanks ..
Brother Oris ..
I appreciate your efforts .. Brother Savimbi is stand
up guy actually and needs help. Be patient with
blooper .. he is OK but misguided .. Teach him about
MIGS. Ben Barks regards.

To all
On CNN .. they had a REAL US response survey .. Id say it
was 75 % NEGATIVE on Clinton .. The polls are clearly
manipulated .. THIS is where we need a little
investigative journalism. How randon is the sampling ??
Polls are a setup.
This attack was a cynical ploy to help Clinton's collapsing
image .. He didnt fool anybody. The mideast peace
process is toast. Netanyahoo must be drinking champange.
Not so fast .. the muslims will probably become more
unified by this. I think we may have a serious screwup.
Things are getting a little out of control. Greesepan
cant keep the lid on everything.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:37 - ID#347267)
Golds and Oils
Here is the summary action today; major oils volume expanding:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:40 - ID#17077)
The Deception of the Gold Short.
A common attack upon gold is the notion that, since most Americans do not use the metal in daily affairs, therefore lack of familiarity, availability, etc. dooms the metal to the trashbin of history.

"Paper currency and digital money are pandemic," the gold short declares, "ergo the American public could NEVER transact in gold again. The public does not know what it is or how to use it or where to find it."

Unfortunately, this argument is both specious and nonsensical.

On a micro level, gold may have little value in America. However, on a macro level amongst nations, gold retains significant value. It is the only international currency today containing historic, intrinsic value ( as opposed to value based upon the good faith of a go*ernment ) .

I well remember a trip I took to a country one time whose paper currency experienced regular and radical shifts of "value." In that particular country, the unofficial transactional currency was the American Dollar. The majority of citizens did NOT hold American currency. Rather, they held bushels of their own country's volatile currency. A small black market existed in which American Dollars were king. Any citizen of the country who wished to obtain real, vital goods for reasonable prices was compelled to learn about the US Dollar, enter the Black Market, transact in American Dollars, and discover how to obtain the American currency...otherwise, the unfortunate citizens who did not rapidly acquaint themselves with the US Dollar were left to suffer great dearth owing to the pathetic purchasing power of their native currency.

Analogously, the day the American Dollar develops a "crisis in Faith" and ceases to maintain its tremendous purchasing power will be the day that the citizens will seek out another currency or transactional medium to enable them to obtain real, vital goods. Whatever this new transactional medium is, Americans will be compelled to learn what it is, how to use it, and where to obtain it. Most Americans cannot conceive of such a radical New World. In a country renowned for notably dismal, parochial education in international matters...where most citizens know only one language...where most citizens would be hard pressed to name the capital cities of more than one or two foreign countries...where most citizens are still nonconversant with the near universal usage of the Metric System...then naturally, the average American cannot conceive of a world in which he is COMPELLED to learn something new and foreign -- specifically, a whole new currency!!

The odds favor that, even if gold does not end up becoming the new global currency of choice, nevertheless, it will likely serve ( at the very least ) as an invaluable bridge to the creation of a new global reserve currency and/or currencies.

The reason: With the dissipation of American Dollar hegemony, naturally, we will witness tremendous upheaval. Gold always thrived in chaos and there is little reason to expect otherwise during the next storm.



(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:52 - ID#288295)

Charlie -

I'll email you tomorrow with instructions on how to get charts on My home machine won't do Java applets, so I can't view the site from here.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:54 - ID#222107)
News Flash!
The FBI announced that the stains on Monica's dress are, in fact, semen stains, and that a possible match could be substantiated with either hair, saliva or blood samples. Coincidentally, a meeting in the Oval Office last weekend opened with:

Gore: "You wanted to see me, Mr. President."

Clinton: "Yes, Al, have a seat. I wanted to talk about the --- Al, did you know your hair is sticking straight up in the back? It looks awful! Here, use my hairbrush..."

(Thu Aug 20 1998 16:55 - ID#57232)
Bombings in Afganistan and Sudan?
Boy - that was fast. Does anyone know if we really hit anything related with to the bombings of our embassies? There are two possibilities: 1 ) The military knew something was afoot before the embassy bombings, or 2 ) we are starting to act without substantiating that we actually have identified the culprits. The latter possibility really scares me, if it is true. Wag the Dog?

What also worries me is that these terrorist attacks and counterattacks may escalate until they occur on our shores. But -- perhaps that is what some parties want -- because then one can declare a national emergency.

I certainly hope that this is not the case. Certain factions in the US government may want to encourage terrorist attacks on American facilities around the world -- just so that they can assimilate more power. WJC -- as a popular, but weak president -- is ideal as a figurehead for such actions.

Another possibility, just as likely, is that we really do not have any well defined foreign policy at all -- and we are just muddling through. Sure makes things tough for our bureaucratic high level government types when the terrorist in question appears to be a Saudi Arabian expatriate.

Agendas within agendas. We certainly cannot attack any sites in Saudi Arabia. That would be political suicide. So -- do we just punish the 'usual suspects'?

This certainly is a time when we need a well-defined foreign policy, not an rudderless one -- and a strong foreign policy president. Why do I get the feeling that our period of relative world peace is slipping away, due in part to inaction, or inappropriate action wrt foreign policy? Oh well, as someone once said, the seeds of war/conflict are sown in peacetime.

I wonder what message North Korea gets when they are told they are to get some nuclear reactors, but get contraband US dollar printing presses instead. For the brand-new 100 bill, nontheless. Someone knowledgable had to give the North Koreans the necessary secrets. The same group that gave China all of those military secrets?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:00 - ID#147211)
Silverbaron VIX.X
Thanx, I'll be watching.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:01 - ID#252150)
The strong U.S.$
Todays attacks are a perfect example of why it's so strong.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:03 - ID#350179)
Today would explain Pakistan embassy warnings, No?
Understandably, following Mr Clinton's recent troubles concerning the grand jury investigation and his relationship with White House worker Monica Lewinsky, there have been questions raised about the timing of these attacks.

Republican senator Arlen Specter, of Pennsylvania, said: "I'm not going to suggest ulterior motives but I especially want to know the reason for doing it now.

"I want to know what the evidence was."

Western leaders support US strikes

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:04 - ID#287340)
Xau closed on days high
In 1987 and 1929 gold stocks rallied before the market tanked. The smart money moves out of stocks before removing the last props holding up the market.

Clinton's desperation is adding to the market uncertainty. The markets valuation, Y2K, Asia and Russia all point to a market meltdown.

However VIX closed over 29. Options expire tomorrow. This could cause a big rally tomorrow. Even in todays weak market AOL, Cisco, Microsoft and Yahoo all were up over a point. Until these leaders crack the market could have one more suprise on the upside.

My best guess for now is for the rally to continue until labor day. Watch for a big reversal in the techs to signal the end.

P.S. VIX can be followed and charted on

The Hermit
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:05 - ID#374232)
@ Allen(USA) and clone
Your posts at 15:58 and 15:59 are "right on"! When will the USA be rid of him? "For the good of the country, impeach". Thank you gentlemen!

The Hermit

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:06 - ID#36156)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:07 - ID#410198)
John Disney.....We do agree on Angola...for those who want more info

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:13 - ID#350179)
The current justification is outlined below.

We shall watch this new world spin together, No?

Mr. Mick
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:14 - ID#345321)
Sticking my neck out here, but.....the next US President will be...............
Jay Rockefeller. NOT that far-fetched. No?

PH in LA
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:23 - ID#225408)
With Liberty and Justice for all!!
Posted this this morning. Thought it bears repeating. No reason, really!

"We must be the laughing stock of the world....We are not talking about the kinds of single partner affairs that most former presidents have had -- we are talking about indiscriminate sexual activity, and then lying about it." JTF.

Right on!

It's when the sexual activity becomes "indiscriminate" that we become "laughing stocks of the world". All that "discriminate sexual activity" is OK with me, too!

And what about that tie? Isn't that just terrible?

I am sendingan e-mail to Sam Donaldsontoday thanking him for that very significant story he did last night on the President's necktie. I want him to know that the video clips of the President wearing the tie that was given to him by the object of his "indiscriminate sexual activity" resonated with me and with millions of other Americans making us all feel like "laughing stocks of the world".

Last night someone came on here braying about "JUSTICE". "it's not about's about justice! Blah, Blah, Blah..."

Got me thinking.

Wouldn't we have a much better system of justice if these things worked the same way for all Americans? You know, like a system of laws, where everyone was treated the same way under the law? From the President down to the lowest common criminal?

It could be quite a system!

Let's say there is reason to believe a crime has been committed. ( Any reason would suffice. Even just wishing that one had been, for any reason, including political reasons ought to be enought. ) A special prosecutor could be assigned to the criminal. So let's say you begin by looking for evidence of murder. If no evidence is found you could check to see if robbery might have been committed ( or even financial irregularities ) . If that doesn't work, and before you give up with nothing, ask around to see if "indiscriminate sexual activities" were committed. Even if you can't prove that they were, you could impannel a special grand jury and start asking questions. Sooner or later the "criminal" ( who has not yet committed any crime ) would probably say something that conflicted with what he said yesterday, or with what someone else said yesterday, or with something someone was going to say tomorrow ( you get my drift ) and you could nail him for perjury. It wouldn't have to matter what it was about. Hell, just about everyone has some sort of "sexual activity" either in his past or his future, some "discriminate" and some "indiscriminate". Just ask him about that. Most people lie about sex, especially if it is either "discriminate" or "indiscriminate".

You'd have him then. You could throw him in jail. Or maybe you could get the death penalty popularized again. Have him torn from limb to limb in the town square. That used to be very big just a few hundred years ago. Or at the very least you could get him fired from his job.

I'd really like to live in a country with a system like that! Wouldn't you?

Got ( enough ) gold?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:25 - ID#287340)
@Chas Re:Vix charts
At use the symbol is ^VIX. You can get a chart versus the S&P for various time frames.

Got Gold!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:28 - ID#39857)
Psychic Planet News
Be patient my children. Love will soon reign. How are you JTF.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:30 - ID#287279)
The bombings of the US emmbasies and now of targets in Sudan and Afganistan.
Ask yourself: "Why now?", "Has this been first terrorist attack against Americans in 6 years?"

Answers to those questions MAY shed some light. It may scare you.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:37 - ID#287340)
@Foxman where are the Comex reports
Could you post the URL where you get the info. You always post it before I can get access from future source or kaplans report.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:39 - ID#252150)
AragornIII@I felt that Wizened's post was provocative, asked some good
questions & deserved a reply. His point was that virtually every Country in the World except the U.S. is subject to attacks on their currencies. As we know, that is the main reason for the impetus for the EMU. I am tired of hearing that some Counries' currencies are going down because they may hold a smaller % of AU in their reserves than the U.S. How do you explain the DM going down so much in recent years? The main reason that some Countries have their currencies under attack is because of the greedy hedge funds ( although some choose to devalue ) . It is easy money for them & they don't care how many lives they ruin in the process, as witness the carnage in SEAsia.

It's obvious that most investors prefer the U.S.$ to AU despite the trillions of dollars of debt that will never be payed, regardless of the miniscule amount of reserves that they hold in AU. Why? Because the U.S.
has the most powerful military & the reserve currency.

BTW, what % of AU does the U.S. hold in reserves? Do you really think that it would be in any way significant if a financial disaster did occur?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:40 - ID#287279)
"Wag the Dog" is real.
Throughout the human history, rulers started and fought wars for their selfish reasons.
It would not surprise me if in the next 7-10 days we have a retialiatory hit against an American target. Maybe even an escalation of hostilities.

Remember, as the Romans used to say, "Qui bono?"

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:41 - ID#377196)
John Disney
Where is all the volume coming from in DROOY? 800,000 a week ago and

500,000 today both on down ticks?

Thanks, GD

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:45 - ID#253153)
Deflation is beginning to show it's ugly face
I'm currently in London posting from my hotel . As usual it's cold here with rain predicted for tomorrow. Great Britain is currently in a recession and manufacturing activities are plunging . The English can't compete with with the Far East. Unemploment for the month of July was reported to be 9% and rising. Since we are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market, the US stock market is following the path of least resistance--- DOWN. The long bond today closed at a new HIGH's of 5.51 %. The long bond is telling you loud and clear, we are in a runaway deflation. The volume on the NYSE has been low during the recent decline and this is a very bearish indicator. Low volume in a primary bear market means ---LACK OF BUYERS. In a bull market , low volume during corrections is very bullish.
Gold has bottom and has begun to rise. A break above $303/oz and 72 on the XAU will confirm the gold bull market.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:46 - ID#316193)
(Don't Tell Bart That I Said Anything)
Grabbe says we now have a new Unibomber!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:46 - ID#252150)
JD&Mozel@You boys are so clever & witty. I can just picture you in your short
pants, with chubby legs & your propeller caps on.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:49 - ID#242325)
Bombs away!
New workd order rapidly changing into new world disorder. US arrogates to itself the right to attack anyoneit feels might be threatening. Embassy bomb attacks gave them the excuse they wanted. No wonder the Clinton regime bitterly opposes the proposed new international court.

None of this is at all surprising considering the extraordinary degree of Israeli influnce in this Administration. Billy's boys have threatened a number of times in the past to bomb facilities in Arab lands that were making weapons they were not "entitled to." But several hundred Israeli nuclear bombs are just fine with Bill Clinton and his handlers.

In the long run ( and perhaps in the short run as well ) all this will be great for gold and oil.

Aragorn III
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:54 - ID#212323)
James...that is a fine report. I would not feel inclined to argue your points in earnest.
To your thought--"It's obvious that most investors prefer the U.S.$ to AU despite the trillions of dollars of debt that will never be payed, regardless of the miniscule amount of reserves that they hold in AU. Why? Because the U.S. has the most powerful military & the reserve currency."

I would add perhaps they, too, want to "be like Mike".

In answer to your last qustion, the amount of foreign exchange reserves held by the US can be found on the web in several places...IMF data, Federal Reserve data, etc. They may or may not indicate what amount of the reserves are gold. But, as the country with the premier paper for global reserves, ( and with a notorious history of running trade deficits ) one wonders what kind of paper would count for much in an attempt to defend the US Dollar on the foreign exchange markets. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...

got gold?

If the dollar ever finds itself on shakey ground, not much else would prop it up.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:55 - ID#57232)
Good to have some humor -- I must admit!
Hedghog: Did you put flowers in rifles on Hait-Ashbury, and drive around in a colorful Volkswagon bus with an equally colorful surfboard on top? Or were you a Swami in a former life? Was the name Maharashi? I did get a mantra years ago, in New Jersey nontheless. Was in SF years later -- but long after the flower children had departed.

Appreciate your words -- sometimes the flow of events gets a bit much. Yes, I do want to make money investing in precious metals -- but I just don't want the financial turmoil or military confrontations that may come with a bull market in gold. How about some simple peacetime inflation instead? Or AG just worried about an ordinary recession, and he lowers short term rates? Life is never quite what you want -- you just get the cards you are dealt. We on this site are cursed with wanting to look into the future more than most -- and what we see is often not pleasant to look at.

PH in LA
(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:56 - ID#225408)
For the good of what country?
"For the good of the country, impeach". Thank you gentlemen!


You appeared to be quoting someone else when you included: "For the good of the country, impeach" in your post.

Would you mind identifying the quotation?

Then would you mind explaining why you ( and everyone else here ) think it would be so good for the country to impeach ( or throw out ) another president?

Seems like since Nixon there have been other political attempts to repeat that sordid bit of history. Reagan and Iran Contra,etc.

Is it really all that good for the country to throw out the president as part of the political process every few years? The founding fathers didn't seem to think so. "High crimes and misdemeanors!" Weren't those their words? Wonder why they didn't include the phrase "lying and perjoring himself about sex"? Maybe they couldn't conceive why anyone would be asking the President of the United States about that in the first place.

Why were they?

Wasn't Starr appointed to investigate Whitewater?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 17:56 - ID#329186)
PH in LA(with liberty and justice for all!!) ID#225408
The word justice amazes me,when ever I see on TV personalities coming out of the law courts and utter those words "british justice has been done " they mean we won period.Justice is perception frequently confused with the legal system i guess its the same everywhere. It keps bureaucrats ,lawyers barrister & judges and the rest employed.....and to me it stinks The pure fact that one who employs the best Silk hasa better chance shoul dspeak volumes........


Mr. Mick
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:00 - ID#345321)
OLD GOLD....Clinton not as anti-UN as a lot of US citizens are..........
I believe the philosophy is: out of disorder comes order.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:01 - ID#25171)
The clock is ticking
Today , a new part of the world financial market has been collapsing.
South America . Mexican and Brazilian bolsa down 3 and 6 % and Mex Peso trading on a low ever ever of 9.4 to the $.
Remember december 1994 ?
Only this time Asia and Eastern Europe are in too.
What does it tell us ?
Since 1987 , I have never seen a stage so well set for a full scale financial crisis . The situatio in the derivative markets is more tensed than I can recall except during crisis time.
The crisis is at hand and I put my money where my mouth is as I constructed the biggest long volatility position I ever had in 12 years of trading.
By the 14th of september we will have seem 850 on the S&P
GOLD ?I don't care I buy more.
Wud be nice to hear from you FARFEL

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:01 - ID#377196)
That the US$ is the preferred currency due to its military and
it being the reserve currency of the world is correct
in my opinion.

The only question is when will this situation end. Our military
power is going to be around for a long time. So when does the dollar
go down? When it bankrupts the rest of the world which it is now doing.
It will cause a recession in the US soon because no other nation
will be able to buy our products. When this happens money will
flow out of the stockmarket to ? Gold, money market, t-bills, real
things, commodities.

I think Alan does see what is going on but Rubin tells him not to
do anything because US Companies can buy into ASIA cheaply. So ALAN
does nothing. He puts up the inflation scare to direct attention
else where. So he can't get blamed. Or so he thinks. So far it is
working most of the time.

Only they know when the big shift will come. And they are not saying.
So all we can do is wait. And that is the trouble with fiat money.
It encourages speculation and waiting instead of honest labor. But we
all know that doesn't always work either.

Sometimes I think that this is just a game for money, for dollars.
But as DR. Hein points out in his most recent article even the
Treasury of the United States puts no value on the dallar. So look
what we are chasing=nothing of value. Are we going to turn out to
be the biggest fools of all? I think that is what fiat currencies do
to everyone.

Thanks, GD

Mr. Mick
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:03 - ID#345321)
Paul Kangas' Market Report quoted gold at $290 tonight...............
Bart says $284. Can someone give a good page to find the latest price?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:05 - ID#287340)
@PH in LA Re: The commander in heat
1.Cheating the draft
2.Drug running in mena
3.$100,000 in cattle futures ( by reading the wallstreet journal )
4.White water
5.Castle grande
6.Trooper ( pimp ) gate
7.Paula Jones
8.Travel gate ( firing them wasn't enough lets sick the FBI on innocents )
9.1100 FBI files
10.Sicking IRS on opponents
11.Kathleen Whiley
12.Vince foster murder
13.Ron Brown mysterious death before indictments
14.Pena and tyson chicken
15.Wealthy buddist nuns
16.Teamster pension fund money laundering through DNC
17.Murdering children in Waco
18.Chinese bribery
19.Hush money for Hubbell
20.Sex with 21 year old intern

Quite a legacy

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:06 - ID#39857)
If I could of I probably would of.
How about serving a mining co. with an eviction notice for
being on native land. Or dreaming up a poem about the "Feast
of the Dragon". Or supporting native cultures threatened by
mining co's. Your right! You just have to laugh. My bank
account looks dismal compared to 18 months ago. But then
I posted that one about some dumb Aussie battler tipping
his gold out and well you know the rest. Its all my fault.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:06 - ID#316193)
The Daily CRB Report is Probably Right, Why Gold Did Not Move Higher Today.

Click on precious metals.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:07 - ID#57232)
Question for you
JP: Your being in London set me thinking. Last night I looked at the German mark, other European currencies, as well as the British pound. Oddly, only the British pound has held up against the US dollar over that last 12 months or so. The German mark has dropped about as much as the Canadian dollar, which makes me wonder if the problem with Canada is not the Canadian dollar dropping, but the US dollar rising. Or -- do I have this wrong -- have the Germans been inflating the mark?

Regardless -- the most interesting question is why the British pound is so strong.

Now, with England moving into a recession, what will happen to Europe? The Russian debacle must have some negative effects. Is there any real evidence of an economic recovery? If not, looks like the US dollar will have relatively little competition from the EURO -- unless there is some special gimmick -- 'like backed by gold', or 'cheap, anonymous derivatives trades'. Comments?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:10 - ID#407135)
Gold Price
$290 was probably Dec Futures which CBS Marketwatch are now quoting at $289

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:13 - ID#219363)
My hope is that actions such as these don't serve to polarize a long standing environment of animosity between "them" and "us", fundamentalist Islamic organizations and the United States. When violence enters into the equation, opinions get formed, and groups coalesce, lines get drawn, extremist views get considered, rhetorical argument has a forum, and pride yells "Shotgun!" while reason gets to ride in the back seat. Had a US embassy in France been blown up by French factions that didn't like the US, we would not be placing laser-guided bombs on precision targets near Paris. The fact that we've done this in the Sudan and Afganistan serves to send a clear message that we do not trust these countries, and the nation of Islam in general. These things worry. All of the peoples of the world are prideful and have an ego, and showing disrespect ( especially through lack of understanding ) does not serve us well. I don't mean to promote some mamby-pamby bleeding heart point of view - but I think that a man, when properly motivated, can do anything under the sun that there is to do - and I'm not naive enough ( I sometimes wish I were ) to believe for a moment that spreading violence won't serve to steel the hearts of the die-hard and born-again who see us as their enemy. We are creating an atmosphere where the extreme have a voice, a voice which can be used to gain support from more moderate peoples.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:15 - ID#407135)
Try for alternate price source

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:16 - ID#230235)
Hong Kong market /paper fiat money
I've just noticed that the ^HSI ( hong kong ) market is going up
while most others are declining. China is buying the HSI with
paper money! I mean they print the stuff and buy hard assets?
How long will it take for traders to figure out that the outfit
doing the buying is also printing the money to do the buying?
Ok, the recent uptick in gold may be short covering but a moron
should be able to figure this stuff out. Maybe not. I'm sitting
on a lot of gold stock showing huge loses.!!! But with the China
action maybe I'll live long enought to see "THE GOLD WILL RISE

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:21 - ID#377196)
A more correct viewpoint might be....
that it is the foreign countries that are lowering the exchange
value of their currencies because of the fact that the labor rates are
so low in those countries that the people cannot buy the products of
their own labor. ( though not as true in Japan )

So all they have left is to export to the US. It could be that the
pressure is on the US economy and our businesses because how do we
compete with goods that are now 30 to 50% less to buy? We can't.

The world is at a very dangerous intersection. I think this is
just the inevitable position that the world finds itself in with
floating exchange rates. There is no unit of measure. So it is a
race to the bottom as Dines says.

In the end, maybe it is just a case of a bad system leading everyone
to look after themselves with disasterous consequences.

No villians, just the stupidity and hubris of the intellectual


Thanks, GD

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:21 - ID#288295)

Gold 896,914 ( -136,362 )
Silver 78,221,166 ( +15,299 )

Margin requirements lowered on metals trading - same money can now control more contracts.

Desperation by the shorts?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:26 - ID#253153)
JTF--The English pound is strong because of high short term interest rates
Despite the fact that England is in a recession, short term interest rates are around 7%. The German Mark is weak because of the Russian loans. The banks in Germany are owed $50 B and Russia is on the verge of a total default. I just don't understand why the Brits are not reducing their short term interest rates to stimulate their economy which is already in recession. Everyone here is complaining about the government tight money policy.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:28 - ID#147201)
SteveIs re Vix
Got it. Thanx. Charlie

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:29 - ID#57232)
South America
Sequin: Any idea how quickly the events will unravel in South America? Any chance of another Gold fire sale like the SEAsia episode? Perhaps this time it will be different --- no more gold to sell. My guess is that the South East Asians are more frugal, and had more gold saved for a rainy day. The South American situation might therefore unfold alot faster, IMHO.

All: Anyone know how much gold is available for emergency sale in South America?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:32 - ID#384350)
Vive Le Qubec Libre!
"The house is burning from the east to the west, from the south to the north...The only thing governments will be able to do is lock people inside the house as it burns down around them."-Allen ( USA ) 10:58

Canadian federalists won a landmark victory as the country's Supreme Court decided that Quebec doesn't have the right to secede unilaterally-Bloomberg News

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:33 - ID#45173)
Came home tonight from a harrowing road trip, trying to get out of DC on the last leg before some pissed-off Islamic dude puts together a little thank you note for Uncle Sam, listening to some whimpering idiot sitting next to me complain to me how he's losing money in the stock market ( duh ) , and what do I find? I bottle of fine vodka from you. Having some right now. I need it.

I accept it not as winnings for our bet on the Nikkei, which I admit is as much luck as intuition and calculation, but as a gift from a man of his word, a rarity these days, I'm afraid. Thank you and kind regards.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:34 - ID#43349)
One of the reasons the dollar is so strong is that relatively high interest rates were put into effect which the economy was able to support without appreciable slowing. Indeed, flight money made it relatively easy for companies to obtain funding for expansion or acquistion via equity dealings.

If you recall, earlier this year the BOE in a somewhat contraversial move raised British rates in the face of feared slowdown. The same effect as in the US has kept the pound sterling at higher levels than competing curriencies.

There is also less exposure to the Russian problem in England and the US than in some of the other European countries, particularly Germany.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:35 - ID#377196)
Maybe England and the US don't lower their interest rates

1. They want a strong Lb. and $ in order to buy up Asian assets

2. If they lowered interest rates now the US bubble stockmarket
just might get bigger which Alan does not want and the English
don't want.

3. Gold might go up. And gold going up would be a signal that
something is wrong.

They cannot do this forever. Natural maket forces will bring
about the "great shift".

Thanks, GD

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:39 - ID#432148)
Even a Democratic congressman calls for resignation

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:42 - ID#347267)
General Motors (again)
My GM comment: ( repeat from this am )
General Motors, as a belwether, is a the critical neckline level of a six month long head and shoulders formation. A close at or below 66 will confirm this negative top, and indicate a minimum target on the downside of 55. See:
IMHO, this will be one of the final nails in the coffin of this bull.

And todays break:
Note: GM closed today at 66 1/2 with well over two million shares traded. It is no coincidence that my target of 55 is the support level of the January lows. A bear market bounce from that level will probably coincide with a sharp ( bear market ) rally of the general market.

Mtn Bear going out on that limb again: ( Will probably be scramblin back terectly ) "Gold will go up as GM goes down." I'm sure some will remind me if it turns out wrong! Even if I am wrong, I'm holding my CEF and KGC and buying GOLDX!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:42 - ID#267344)
EJ - That was quick - I sent it on Monday
It is known as the "Silver Label," which I considered most appropriate. It's strong stuff - got some for me too. Cheers! Also, e-mail me when you get the chance - you did get the note, yes? Glad to know you appreciate it. And as a wise one once said, "Gulp to ya!" -c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:44 - ID#57232)
JP: Perhaps the Brits are like us -- still far to worried about inflation to see deflation looming. And, there may be the concern of not repeating the 'mistakes' of the late 20's when the US markets bubbled. Problem is -- if you are a central banker these days you must be nimble -- or an ex central banker. The chop of the storm is rising, but the direction of the wind is still uncertain. Don't want to turn the helm into the wind, and find you are going to broach instead.

Apologies to the old sea salts who know these terms better than I. I have never piloted my own sailboat in the ocean after dark. But I do have a healthy respect for the whims of mother nature -- either at sea, or on land.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:44 - ID#432148)
Globex S&P & NSDQ opening slightly down

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:45 - ID#317193)
Hope you are well. Pleased to see that multiple personality has not run you off. It seems to me that currencies are all at risk. The US$ is THE peg in the system. At such time as it fails gold and, perhaps silver too, will be the only alternative. Sounds like ANOTHER. Yes?

The problem, as I see it, is one of timing. The US$ could be strong for years to come or collapse within the week. Events could happen so quickly that gold ( and silver ) could not be purchased to protect ones assets. Living in a paper world requires playing the paper game. As such a gold hedge is required. How much and when are the questions. I pulled out of the stock market in January and then in and out. Keeping my gold physical hedge in place and have some mining shares.

Now, it seems, I am at a loss ( literally on some mining shares ) to act to accumulate more physical and mining shares. I have a sense of great unease about gold. This psychological barrier hopefully will not cloud my convictions but I must admit to a degree of consternation not felt previously.

In any case, give me a pep talk. He who hesitates is lost...Yes? We watch this ne...never least at the present. Keep posting. PMSP


(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:48 - ID#224363)
@Leland - Gold as Safe Haven
Gold remains a safe haven. There is no doubt in my mind about that.

The CRB report says that one trader suggested that it had hardly fulfilled its role as a "flight-to-quality" asset during times of trouble, but that it may be boosted higher if the situation escalates.

I think the key phase is 'if the situation escalates'. The US Military Strikes today are not particularly significant with respect to gold as a safe haven. Quite frankly, I approve and I'm not even a big fan of US Military Intervention and I can't stand Clinton.

A good example of gold as a safe haven would be Korea ( how many tons did the population ante up to the government when the currency crisis hit ? )

A friend in Indonesia that I talked to a few months ago said 'I Should have bought more gold or US dollars'. This was right after he watched his local currency bank accounts become worthless.

Gold and the US$ are both safe havens and will split the role for the next little while. When I was younger, it was gold and the Swiss Franc that were safe havens. Someday soon it will be gold and the Euro.

Gold will continue to rise as the CBs slow down their selling and the mines slow down their leasing. The demand for gold remains large.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:48 - ID#45173)
2nd well-placed anti-fiat money, anti-IMF editorial in the WSJ this week
Russia Needs a New Currency . . .


The West's once mighty Cold War enemy is now caught in the agonizing throes of a meltdown
that has become all too familiar on the global financial scene. Currency devaluation, a forced
"restructuring" of domestic debt, a moratorium on repaying foreign obligations--it all spells
economic disaster. That it should happen to Russia, a nation attempting to convert from a
command economy to a free market system, is particularly tragic.

The West should ask itself: Has it betrayed this willing convert?
High-level officials from the Group of Seven leading industrial
countries have been anguishing over what can be done to save
Russia from becoming the latest casualty of a global monetary
system in utter disarray. International financier George Soros
weighed in last week with his own advice, suggesting that Russia
incur a "modest devaluation" and then introduce a currency board
to back the ruble with $50 billion in reserves mostly supplied by
the International Monetary Fund and major Western governments.
Monday's 34% cut in the ruble is hardly modest; the currency
board idea is more promising.

Under a currency board arrangement, governments lose the ability
to exercise discretionary monetary policy. Money issued by a
currency board is backed 100% by reserves of foreign currency
and gold. The exchange rate between the national money and the
reserve currency does not gyrate according to the fickle sentiments
of investors or jawboning efforts by government officials, but is
guaranteed by law. Holders of the national money can convert
into the reserve currency at the fixed rate on demand. The
hallmark of a currency board is that it works automatically; the
national money supply expands or contracts through the inflow or outflow of reserves.

Such monetary straightforwardness makes IMF bureaucrats uneasy. They are more inclined to
use the value of money as a tool for manipulating financial incentives and human behavior in
accordance with the objectives of their prescribed economic reform programs. When economist
Steve Hanke attempted to help Indonesia establish a currency board earlier this year, he was
viciously opposed by IMF officials.

The IMF playbook goes something like this: Countries afflicted by currency catastrophe are
asked to balance their budgets by cutting government spending and raising tax revenues as a
condition for receiving multibillion-dollar IMF financial assistance packages. Meanwhile,
devaluation is employed as a tactic to spur exports by reducing their cost in world markets.
Complicating price signals still further, high interest rates are used to lure foreign capital even as
internal borrowing is discouraged through a clampdown on banking. Internally contradictory,
the program often fails to work.

It seems an irony of fate that Russia would become the final battleground for determining
whether sound money is better assured through the rule of law or the rule of men. Resurrection
of the currency-board debate under such dramatic circumstances has critically important
implications for the future of democratic capitalism. The world stands to gain from the vital
lesson that government control over the value of money involves an inherent conflict of interest.
Contrary to protestations about national sovereignty and the need to exercise monetary
"flexibility," free markets function properly only when money provides a meaningful unit of
account and a reliable source of value.

Moreover, the vast degree of financial integration that characterizes today's quicksilver capital
markets makes it impossible to differentiate the domestic value of money from its value in world
currency markets over any sustained period. We may be fast approaching the day when the
needs of the global economy require a global monetary solution.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made the observation earlier this year that the 1994
Mexican peso devaluation was the first crisis of the new high-tech global economy. The 1997
meltdown of Southeast Asian currencies initiated the second crisis. Mr. Greenspan predicted
with stark candor that there would be a third. Why? Because the fundamental problem of fiat
currencies, whose supply is determined by the fallible judgments of central bankers, has not
been resolved.

It is now clear that the third crisis belongs to Russia. To be sure, events beyond its control--such
as low prices for oil and gas and Asia's continued economic stagnation--have in some ways
conspired against it. But it is also true that many of Russia's problems are of its own making;
Moscow has been unable to overcome political resistance to the requirements of a private-sector
economy, and has refused to deal with the budgetary consequences of the transition from a
command economy. As economist Ludwig von Mises once observed, inflation is not an act of

Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko has been insisting that the roots of Russia's currency
woes are psychological, not fiscal. And so they are. But that doesn't make them any less
devastating. Faith in the future is a key component of capitalism. Why would people sacrifice
consumption today if they did not believe that by setting aside capital for investment they are
improving their economic prospects for tomorrow? The lack of confidence in Russia's currency
reveals a lack of faith in Russia's future. Even Boris Yeltsin's firm assurances that "there will be
no devaluation" rang pathetically hollow over the weekend. Mr. Yeltsin may have been able to
stare down the Red Army from astride a tank, but he is no match against currency traders who
smell blood.

Can this ruble be saved through a currency board? No. A proposal to incur a deliberate
devaluation is a kiss of death. Currency devaluations defy control.

But the creation of a new national money issued through a currency board might offer Russia a
second chance to make capitalism work. Moscow's biggest worry at this point is its continued
vulnerability to speculative assault. Implementation of a currency board would reassure
long-term investors while depriving currency traders of an open playground. The new
money--call it the "chervonets," after the stable czarist currency--would be issued only in direct
correlation with accumulated currency reserves of dollars or euros. The old ruble would float
against the chervonets as a parallel currency; eventually, it would likely be abandoned out of

As Mr. Soros points out in "The Alchemy of Finance," the only way to end the destabilizing
impact of currency speculation is to take the profit out of it. While Mr. Soros's philanthropic
inclinations have not moved him to curtail his raids on weak currencies, he has displayed a deep
concern about the future of Eastern Europe.

A currency board can provide a stable monetary platform on which Russia may build a
successful capitalist society. But it will not be a panacea. It cannot, for example, enforce
property rights and guarantee an effective criminal justice system.

Russia's calamitous straits should be seen as a wake-up call to Western governments to initiate
serious reform of the international monetary system. Currency boards are, after all, only stopgap
measures. They achieve their credibility by latching on to a reliable currency, usually the dollar,
and then by maintaining a strict discipline over issuance of the national money in order to gain
for it a reputation for integrity. But the dollar will soon have to face up to a dilemma of its own.
Mr. Greenspan is in the increasingly untenable position of exerting monetary influence on a
global scale while being obligated to conduct monetary policy in the interest of the domestic

But even if the West reacts with unusual speed, reform sadly may not arrive in time to save
Russia. And so the post-Cold War dream of a peaceful Russian transformation to democratic
capitalism would end--not with a nuclear bang, but with a financial whimper.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:48 - ID#250353)
All: Have been flying this month with a rather high ranking career military officer. Have had all month to discuss current events, politics, etc. In a nutshell, here is his consensus of undercurrents within the military:

1 ) He and most of his subordinates loathe WJC as much as or more than he loathes them.

2 ) There is some resentment that we ( U.S. ) are a de facto world police force putting out brush fires in many places we have no business.

3 ) There is further resentment that the Commander in Chief is leading ( ? ) with an attitude of 'do as I say, not as I do' and that he is getting away with activities that would be career-terminators for anyone else within the military.

4 ) Today's politically correct military is being undermined by pantywaists and fems who care more about furthering their grand social experiments within the military rather than shaping a hardened fighting force,

5 ) If ordered, would his men fire on U.S. civilians for infractions real or imagined? No way, BJ.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:51 - ID#432148)
Drudge's Aug 11 07:22 UTC re Barbra Streisand's song for BC priceless

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:52 - ID#39857)
Norforce will find him. They will do good work.
Dont worry about sending in your own pussyfoots. You need to
go barefoot, go days without water, be resistant to tropical
ulcers, and ross river fever. Hang in there mum and dad.
Friday 21 August, 1998 ( 8:14am AEST )

Defence Force personnel in northern Australia will start a search today
for the wreckage of a United States Marine F/A-18 fighter jet.

The jet crashed during night-time military exercises in the Northern

The fate of the pilot in the single seat aircraft is unknown.

Australia's Defence Force says the crash occurred at the Delamere
Range, southwest of the town of Katherine, when the Hornet and its
pilot were participating in Exercise Southern Frontier.

The Delamere Range airspace has been declared a prohibited area.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:52 - ID#253153)
JTF--I think you are right on
The Brits are still worried inflation and keeping short term rates high. The government is always the last one to know that the trend has changed. By the time they realize that we are in deflation, it will too late.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 18:53 - ID#224363)
Thanks for posting that WSJ editorial. It is an excellent read and brilliant.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:00 - ID#25171)
The country to watch is VENEZUELA. If they devalue this week end , South America will collapse on monday. US stocks as well. And the world will be waiting for an US emergency package like MEXICO in 1995
Now , in 1995 the US $ collapsed on the S.A. crisis .This time , it is not as clear because $ as regained a safe haven status. But you can expect unprecedented volatility.
Now , GOLD ? As I said earlier this week , for it to be seen again as safe haven will take a financial collapse of epic proportion. However I doubt we will see a new round of selling as we saw for SE ASIA . They simply don't have much to sell and it will take them some time to dig it out

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:00 - ID#57232)
In the ocean after dark
Yes -- forgot I did this once with the second rental of the same 42' Yawl off the coast of San Diego. A day sail became a late evening sail, when many events all came together with a boat that was incorrectly rigged . The choice was Mexico or Hawaii. Fortunately I had insisted on a battery and gasoline for the inboard, and fortunately there was a map of the bottom of San Diego harbor. Used the depth indicator ( which worked ) to find my way past the 2-mile long stone jetty.

That night I will never forget, because I also made the mistake of going out to sea without my crew. Had six others on board, non of whom know how to sail. If you have not sailed before -- only power boats -- it is easy to naively think you can handle anything. Sailboats are far less forgiving of mistakes. Fortunately, with sails and partially functional motor, I made harbor, running out of gas within several hundred feet of the marina. It is not a pleasant experience to pilot a sailboat worth 5-10 times your annual salary in a harbor without a motor. Never asked the rental agent about insurance, either.

Just how many of the world's Central bankers have gone through a financial crisis of the magnitude of the one that is coming our way? Bet they are almost all 'fairweather' powerboaters. The ones in the know have retired long ago.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:06 - ID#316193)
Your comments about the CRB Report are excellent. In the report
it did mention how fund managers are ignoring the PM's. I
couldn't help but think, when I read this, what if the rumor
is true that Buffett's B.H. fund is taking a large stake in
NEM. The golden rocket ship only needs a little more spark
to get launched.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:09 - ID#335190)
August 20, 1998

TSE raises listing standards for mining and exploration companies

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is making it tougher for mining and exploration companies to be listed on Canada's largest stock market.

The change comes in the wake of the Bre-X Minerals fiasco last year that cost North American investors billions of dollars and damaged the reputation of Canada's junior mining sector.

The changes are effective immediately on an interim basis, subject to regulatory approval by the Ontario Securities Commission.

The TSE is the leading mining finance exchange in the world. Last year, $3.2 billion in mining capital was raised on the exchange, 43 per cent of the world's total equity mining finance.

The more than 300 exploration and mining companies listed on the TSE accounted for 25 per cent of the exchange's trading volume last year.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:09 - ID#384350)
PPT or Complicity
...between the major brokerage houses underwriting options and trading futures? Whatever it is the SEC turns a blind eye to market manipulation.

Again I point to Monday's Action in regard to Sunday Evening- Rouble devaluation, China down 8%, Globex down 10 points, all in light of the President testifying the following day. People here were scared, myself included.

The Market Manipulators were not going to allow another 100+ drop in the Dow, when "El Schmucko" was going on national TV to admit to adulterous affairs. Thus market induced buying entailed on Monday, Tuesday which transitioned on Wednesday.

Tomorrow is Expiration date. It could get real ugly as all this induced buying may try to unwind, especially with the daily Dow chart making 5 waves down and an ABC correction. The only reprieve I see is if the dow manages to top 8763 ( top of ABC ) and thus exhibit a 5 wave upmove, which I don't think is likely. We could see 7350 by next week as another 5 wave down sequence takes hold.
JTF ( Re: So American Gold )
I believe several So. American Countries sold off much of their gold in late 96 and/or 97, supposedly to buy US Treasuries, but likely because of liquidity problems IMO. Gold Sales will likely be done by the Bigger nations, if/when their currencies come under further attack.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:11 - ID#234218)
Wished I'd have said it.
Total gold mining equity option U.S. daily volume is strongly above normal levels while put-call ratios are strongly below normal levels.
Not sure where the quote came from, "Something is seriously wrong when Veterans sleep in the streets while a draft-dodger can sleep in the White House.

From Kaplan report:

This is STRONGLY BEARISH. For most well-known gold mining shares including Barrick, Placer Dome, Newmont, and Homestake, thousands of call options were traded on each of these stocks. Normally it would take two weeks of trading to achieve Thursday's single-day volume. Even considering that tomorrow is options expiration day, such activity is highly unusual ( especially since the heaviest volumes are not in the August options, but in December, January, and February ) , and probably represents a single trading house or consortium.

If I read this correct, this is not a good sign. Comments???

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:14 - ID#57232)
Its good to hear that the military are fed up with WJC
JT8D: How about FBI, CIA, NSA, Justice etc.? Think there is a consensus forming? I'm hoping that this presidential fiasco does not last much longer. Not that I really want Al Gore as President -- but he still would be a better choice. Hopefully when the Presidential crisis reaches a creshendo, it will allow the loyal, honest Americans in our government to clean house. I must believe that it is not too late.

I think that the Commander in Chief needs to maintain a higher moral standard than those who follow him/her -- regardless of which country we are talking about. There was a day that moral code meant something, even if there was no law for every nuance. Now we have a Commander in Chief claiming innocence on a legal technicality.

By the way, I was pleasantly surprised by all those State Governors who angrily complained about at least one of WJC's recent executive orders. Some house cleaning has begun already.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:15 - ID#234218)
How about a correction on the cut&paste
Not sure where the quote came from, "Something is seriously wrong when Veterans sleep in the streets while a draft-dodger can sleep in the White House.

From Kaplan report:
Total gold mining equity option U.S. daily volume is strongly above normal levels while put-call ratios are strongly below normal levels.
This is STRONGLY BEARISH. For most well-known gold mining shares including Barrick, Placer Dome, Newmont, and Homestake, thousands of call options were traded on each of these stocks. Normally it would take two weeks of trading to achieve Thursday's single-day volume. Even considering that tomorrow is options expiration day, such activity is highly unusual ( especially since the heaviest volumes are not in the August options, but in December, January, and February ) , and probably represents a single trading house or consortium.

If I read this correct, this is not a good sign. Comments???

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:16 - ID#373284)
I am running a MAN down backwards...PARIS ISLAND...we know how to cry...............................I am...this is over ... no more... no more ...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:21 - ID#28994)
Gianni Dioro
If Quebec votes to separate , negotiations on a separation package will begin. The Federalists won nothing.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:24 - ID#25171)
@ Gianni Dioro PPT and stock manip
I am quite paranoid ( or realistic ) and some conspiracy theories look real to me.However ...
For stocks , there are 2 ways to manipulate the market : talk it higher or buy it.
The first one , we witness it every day ( CNBC , ABY , RUBIN .... ) The second one is more difficult to implement. Either it is private money and you should ask yourself why a mega rich group of people would buy the market to please GOLDMAN partners who are getting scared , or it is government money and I don't think it is 1 ) legal 2 ) GREENSPAN would go for it.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:30 - ID#347447)
fwiw: I look at the put/call ratios in options for meaty clues, and gold and silver are still very sad. Oil as well. The S&P on the other hand is roughly 2-1 in favor of puts over calls. There is an old Spanish ( Caribbean ) saying when a baby is born: it translates - "When I see the b*lls, I know it is a boy." Sonnagrams aside, I can't believe all these bears are right and will make a bundle in a crash in the next few weeks. So we go UP from here, toot sweet. Oh Bernatz, where are you now that we need you?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:30 - ID#342256)
10 reasons why goldbugs should hate President Clinton

10. Raised taxes in 1993, slashing budget deficit, helping bond market,
killing POG

9. Re-appointed that scumbag Alan Greenspan, who kept economy
booming, helping stocks and driving down POG

8. Pushed for billions of dollars for IMF to prop up Russia and Indonesia,
stalling world-wide financial meltdown and holding down the POG

7. Slashed number of federal workers by 275,000...drastically limiting
purchases of American Eagles by government employees

6. Expanded the annual expensing allowance for small business from
$10,000 to $17,500 a year...encouraging foolish purchases of computers
and other equipment, rather than gold

5. Expanded the Family and Medical leave act so workers can take up
to 12 weeks of unpaid leave for the birth of a child, or to care for a sick
family instead of staying on the job to save more money to buy
Kruggerands and Maple Leafs.

4. Increased Head Start funding by almost $760 million, encouraging
readin' and 'riting', instead of mining and exploring.

3. Signed the Brady Bill, making it harder to use a gun to force the
Central Banks to stop selling gold

2. Took credit for creating 7.5 million new jobs ...none of which
encourage the sale, manufacture, collection, or higher price of gold

1. Named his dog, Buddy, instead of Mountie

-Cassandra, with tongue firmly in cheek

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:31 - ID#347447)
fwiw: I look at the put/call ratios in options for meaty clues, and gold and silver are still very sad. Oil as well. The S&P on the other hand is roughly 2-1 in favor of puts over calls. There is an old Spanish ( Caribbean ) saying when a baby is born: it translates - "When I see the b*lls, I know it is a boy." Sonnagrams aside, I can't believe all these bears are right and will make a bundle in a crash in the next few weeks. So we go UP from here, toot sweet. Oh Bernatz, where are you now that we need you?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:32 - ID#347447)
my first double that's how it's done...

Sorry about that, troops.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:34 - ID#287279)

There is a very good article on Vronsky's site describing how manipulation took place last year. Check it out.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:35 - ID#347447)
ensconce thy tongue thither
( that's how it sounds when you try to speak
dancing tongue in cheek

The Hatt
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:36 - ID#294232)
Japanese Banks Dumping Real Estate Loans!!!!!!
I have been told that the Major Banks in Japan have been parceling off real estate for literally pennies on the dollar which has the effect of disclosing huge losses on the balance sheet! From there they fully intend to blow off US Treasuries as a means of recording huge yen denominated gains which will be used to offset the losses. If my source is accurate which i have to assume he is as he told us three weeks ago about the eminent bank failures, then we can expect the US Dollar to come under attack anytime now. Then watch Gold regain its rightful place in the economic structure.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:44 - ID#234218)
@ Mike Sheller
You didn't double post, you were simply responding in kind to my error.

I hope they're wrong. I have rode gold up and back down. I seem to enjoy up much better, so I choose that it should go up. Alas, not really too promising too soon. I can wait.


The Hatt
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:46 - ID#294232)
When will the producers of Australia learn.
I am so sick of watching the producers in Australia sell forward into the Gold Market because of the weakness in their currency. Night after night they jump on gold from the open and force the market lower with their less than brilliant idea of good business. Someone needs to wake these idiots up! Somedays i think we need to take gold back to thirty five an ounce just to get rid of the idiots making these decisions. I might add i would definitely add Mr. Munk to the list! It seems the producers themselves are more in tune with the derivitives than they are with the real values...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:46 - ID#267344)
Allahu Akbar
It was NOT OK. It was a criminal act. Clinton has murdered again in a desperate attempt to save his hide. This is the same power hungry animal who basically told us all to go f*** ourselves on Monday. Hitler is consolidating his power. Every American is responsible for the deaths of these people. I am certain the debt will be repaid. Give much thought on this. This monster must be stopped before it is too late. -c

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:48 - ID#384350)
The Relatively Stong British Pound
Another factor to the Pound's strength is the new European currency. Many people are nervous about the EMU and have shifted money out of EMU countries like France & Germany and into countries like the US, Switzerland, and Great Britain. EMU flight money and relatively high short-term rates have propped up the GBP.

The Euro doesn't look like its going to have a good start as European banks are in trouble, and the Govt stands there to print money to bail them out - France has already agreed to give Credit Lyonais 120Billion Francs, German has underwritten the near majority of German Bank loans to Russia, and European banks have significant loan exposure to Asia as well ( US banks have more derivative exposure ) .

How can anyone objectively look at the situation without considering Precious Metals as a hedge against Currency Meltdown?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:48 - ID#224363)
@Snowball - Kaplan's Report
You can read the increase in option volumes as either bearish or bullish depending on your personal preference.

If the volume is nothing more than 'dumb' money ( average investors looking for a big score ) , then contrarian philosophy says 'BEARISH'.

If the volume is 'smart money' ( insiders, etc ) , then it is a BULLISH sign.

Personally, I don't read it as anything. Quite frankly, when gold moves $15-$20 in a week, I'll use that as my quite that the bull has started.

Charles Keeling
(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:52 - ID#344225)
RE: PPT Manipulation
The fact that S & P furures are purchased by the
Feds to support the market is a well documented fact.

Do you homework. Go to your room.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:53 - ID#187109)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:57 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
I see the market pretty flat tomorrow and next week. Neither put nor call to do much. PM's not good.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:57 - ID#25171)
@ Shek @ Charles Keeling
Shek : thanks .Which editorial are you refering to?
Charles Keeling : documented by what?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:59 - ID#342256)
Fed Stashes cash for Y2K

forgive me if this has already been posted:

USA Today

The Federal Reserve plans to boost currency inventories by a third next
year in case U.S. consumers want to have more cash on hand when
Jan. 1, 2000, arrives, a Fed official said Wednesday.

This is the first time the Fed has planned for a nationwide demand for
extra cash.

The Fed wants to be ready if consumers hoard cash in fear of so-called Y2K computer problems that could cause automated teller or credit-card transactions to fail when the new year arrives.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 19:59 - ID#34857)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:02 - ID#17077)
@TOM...thanks for the good words...
...take a look at today's COMEX gold drawdown ( why didn't the omniscient Multiple Personality predict that one? ) .

...take a look at today's institutional purchase of a massive quantity of XAU calls.

...then KNOW in your heart that you have properly analyzed the situation.

Feel at peace with yourself.



(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:05 - ID#34857)
Hey Bart!!! - Someone turned the K2 switch ON ... Quick, shut it down before the K1
witch-hunters catch on and smother it.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:11 - ID#384350)
Of course it isn't legal, but what do they care? The PPT supposedly buys futures at key reversal points based on Technical Analysis. A few million dollars in the futures market can really move a futures index, especially if trading is thin. This creates a difference between the futures index and the underlying shares ( cash index ) from which the index is derived.

This creates an opportunity where individuals can make money by selling the futures index and simultaneously buying the underlying shares. The shares then rise and it becomes a sort of self-propelling action as the index rises further in response to the stocks ( cash index ) moving higher. That's probably why we have Dow Futures now, so that the Dow can be manipulated by futures trading. It's like playing with fire, one of these days they's a gonna get burned.

Also, this PPT money is supposed to come from the US Fed's currency reserves, so it isn't really Govt money as the currency doesn't belong to the US Govt, but to a private business ( The Fed ) .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:12 - ID#317193)
The calls tell me the bet is on the rise being late this year and early '99. Tis one reason I'm holding back. We watch. Yes?


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:13 - ID#317193)
F* much of the draw down was eligible?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:15 - ID#206235)
@ RJ,...... Eclipses and Moons and such
RJ you SOB. I read your earlier close minded treatise riducling the "Puetz effect" of Eclipses ( especially during full Moons! ) and how they affect financial markets. Why, your very own words of scientific fact prove you wrong.

By showing us that Eclispes are occuring frequently all over the world, and taking into consideration Peutze's two to four week window, isn't it clear to you that ALL market crashes will have to somehow have a positive correlation with eclipses? Sheesh, I would have thought it was obvious to someone with such a firm grasp of physics and science.

Open your mind RJ. Next you'll be telling us that the "Psychic Friends Network" folks don't really know our future, and that "Roswell" wasn't really a UFO coverup but just weather balloons. Then you'll probably be telling us that crystals don't focus harmonic energies from the universe, and that those magnet thingies we can buy in magazines for our fule lines, don't really increase gas mileage and power! ( Cause of course the Gas company's conspire to keep em all off the market! )

Get a clue dude, you should throw away those science books and get the true facts of life from the "Star" and the "Globe" like the more "emlightenened" among us!


Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:17 - ID#384350)
Klinton se pone los cojones de corbata
Klinton wearing that tie reminds me of a bank robber who after robbing a bank, went across the street to a local cafe. When the police to their amazement arrested him there, with the money in his hands he said, "If I robbed that bank, why would I be here across the street."

I ask you, "If Klinton were really guilty of something, he wouldn't have worn that tie."

PS and Pigs fly.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:19 - ID#206235)
@ Realistic
Those retrospectives are excellent. Helps give us all a persepctive when we can review a little history. Now wat do you see ahead for Silver? I see it going to new 10 year highs in 1999. There I said it...and you can quote me on 1/1/2000 if it doesn't happen!

( Well, I guess you won't be able to since the world as we know it will have ceased to exists due to that evil "Kay" lady everyone keeps talking about )

Keep up the good work, Reality DOESN'T bite! ( It just isn't as fun as "fantasy" sometimes eh!! ;- )


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:24 - ID#342256)
@Cassandra__A (Fed Stashes cash for Y2K) ID#342256:
Printing money is easy.

But who is going to print/mine/mint all the gold that will be required ?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:25 - ID#317193) least you still have your sense of _umor.Yes?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:27 - ID#210114)
Beaming in........

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:28 - ID#210114)
Gold a Safe Haven

New York--Aug 20--Copper futures jumped 2.0%, peaking at a 2 1/2-week high
on the yen's strength against the US dollar and Wednesday's housing starts
figures, which helped eased fears that a slowing US economy will cool
demand quickly. The yen's dominance also encouraged precious metals, as did
perceptions that gold was a safe haven. Silver was up a strong 1.5%. By
Darcy Keith, Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News, Stories .2100, .2333

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:28 - ID#206235)
Weighing in on Clinton
Yes, the F,ing dog is most certainly being wagged.

No doubt we have reams of intelligence on worldwide terrorist networks. I know we've gathered plenty from satellites as well as more conventional means. No doubt also, some of these camps deserve to be bombeed into oblivion.

But the timing of this simply can't be co-incidental. If I was a conspiracy nut, I'd start wondering right about now, whether the embassy bombings truly originated from the groups who are supposedly taking credit.

I'm sorry, but Clinto has proved to be so completely lacking in principles, morals, values, or even loyalty to family and friends ( who he sens out to lie for him for 7 months ) ..... that he is most certainly a sociopath.

As such. he would have NO compunction about mudering innocent people in order to hang onto the last shreds of power he may hold.

Also, I hate to wax cyncial this way, but the suppsed "Cold shoulder" Hillary gave Bill when they enetered the plane for their vacation, was as patently phony an orchestarted moment as their "Lovey beach grainy photo" shoot was last year. It all makes me ill.

The Kitco record is clear that I have striven hard to find the patriotic positive in our country, our Govt., our economy, our past military actions, etc etc. ( in spite of some Moron who called me a Nattering Nabob of Negativism ) . In fact I have often felt here, a lonely voice trying to point out the positive amidst a sea of Gloom and Doom negative sentiment.

But this Clinton business makes me ashamed today and embarrased for my country. The sooner he's gone the better. Even wooden, "Global Warming" Al Gore would be a vast improvement.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:31 - ID#206235)
@ Tyoung
that's right Tom! Without humor, all is lost! You have to able able to laugh when things get bad, it's sometimes the best way to get through it without losing one's mind.

Buy SSC!!! ( I am, sold it all a few weeks back and have placed a "buy" order this week at .75 )


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:33 - ID#342256)
PMF --20:24

Good question.

The story also raises the spectre of mild inflation with all those extra dollars floating around.

Viva gold...


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:34 - ID#206235)
@ RJ.... "Puetz effect" during Lunar events
RJ, my apologies for the 20:15 I posted. It has just come to my attention, that Full Moons, New Moons, and Lunar / Solar eclispes, have an equally strong correlation wth BULL market moves as they do with BEAR market moves!

What a shocking turn of events this is! As to my earlier post.....



(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:35 - ID#317193)
LGB...on the Prez...yes..sad..bad and worse...dangerous to all living things!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:37 - ID#253260)
welcome back LGB!!!!!!!!!!
Now , please tell us how you really feel about clinton.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:39 - ID#317193)
LGB...SSC...still have 5,000 shares...I might fill your order:)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:42 - ID#206235)
@ John Disney.... SA Shares
Being that I'm a non expert in SA shares and the effects of various currency moves, this question may sound a bit academic but it puzzles me nonetheless.

I've been following DROOY, and Harmony, and several NA share prices. I noticed that since early May, the SA hares have taken a much worse beating than say, Homestake.

What puzzles me is this. With the Rand losing ground to the dollar and sevral otehr currencies, wouldn't the SA mining companies profits rise quite a bit, being Gold is most commonly traded for dollars, Swiss Francs, etc.? Converseley, I would think that it would become more difficult for the NA mines to make a profit with Gold's price falling, and the relative value of the dollar rising, pariculary relative to the currencies of Asia, Inonesia, and India.

With the combination of Gold becoming a more favorable export, and these companiy's ability to mine it more efficiently than some of the NA Co's., what explains the NA shares better resilience to Gold's lackluster performance as of late?

( Finally thinking about investing in some AU shares now that they're so cheap.... )


Mr. Mick
(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:42 - ID#345321)
Tolly, your last post waxed somewhat poetic........................
pray tell, what were you saying????????:- ) )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:43 - ID#206235)
@ AUH2O....
Thanks for the welcome, and thanks for using the SMALL "c" when spelling clinton!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:43 - ID#317193)
tol1...I'm with Mr. boy, talk

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:43 - ID#275194)
LGB: Why didn"t the media point this out about him? Only 80% of them vote Deocrat.
Surly the other few % would have could have shown us this side of him that is so unethical.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:44 - ID#373284)
WJC is garbage
you have hurt one of mine...I will kill die...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:46 - ID#210114)
Watch this space
Gold at $US 285 this morning. Australian dollar has fallen to 58.8 US cents which makes about A$ 482 per ounce of gold.

According to the Buckler thesis, this rise in the Australian dollor price of gold heralds a rise in the US dollar ptice. See

I am hoping he is right.

Watch this space. Live Long and Prosper.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:47 - ID#317193) to JD...high fast ball to a high fast ball hitter? Come now...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:51 - ID#257344)
Am I missing something?
It seems like there has been very little followup news on the various internet news sources after the military action of twenty hours ago. In fact the silence is deafening. Did it really happen? ( I really didn't say that did I? ) Well, off to watch Wag the Dag, again ( really!! ) .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:51 - ID#210114)
For Bart Kitner
Gold graph becoming unreliable. Looking forward to your new format promised in mid August.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:51 - ID#206235)
@ Kapex
Only 80% of the media voted for him? I had heard it was closer to 90! Surely though, CNN, the "Communist News Network" would never deign to be anything other than completely objective in their "analysis". Where's that Peter Arnett dude?


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:51 - ID#210114)
For Bart Kitner
Golf graph becoming unreliable. Looking forward to your new format promised in mid August.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:52 - ID#433143)
If Monica comes up with a used condom, I think Clinton will announce we're invading Canada.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:53 - ID#206235)
@ Tyoung....
No really Tom, I truly am considering a few thou shares of DROOY. You know me, I like high ppotential gain, low potential risk plays, with strong fundamentals behind em.

That's why you should hold onto those SSC shares through 99 Tom. As Sheller so brilliantly said, they're a "Non expiring option" on Silver price.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:57 - ID#317193)
LGB...i am...a joke, Yes. Durban Deep....tempting but something is wrong...
can't figure why it is lagging...says something.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 20:57 - ID#17077)
Everybody's Parsing the President's Speech SOOOO.... it's time to parse today's CRB report.

NY Precious Metals Review: Up on dlr dip, US military strikes

By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
New York--Aug 20--COMEX Dec gold futures settled up $1.80 at $289 per
ounce today, helped by a dip in the dollar against the yen.

( Really means: the media is conspiring along with Wall Street hedge funds to link the value of gold to the dollar/yen relationship. Why? Because most Wall Street pundits expect Yen weakness to continue for several years, ergo the yen-gold link should guarantee that gold will remain in its 20 year malaise. Is there any compelling rationale behind this arbitrary link? No. Tomorrow, upon the spin of a dime, one single country ( e.g. China ) could become a massive buyer of gold and more than make up for any volume drop in Japanese gold purchases ) .

It was also boosted towards the end of the session when US President Bill Clinton announced that there had been US military strikes in Afghanistan and the Sudan.

( Really means: Upon the announcement, Wall Street chose to pour investment monies into three areas: oil stock purchases, airline ( transport ) equities shorts, US Dollar purchases ( "Look how Strong America is, Ma! ) , and gold stock purchases. Of the three, gold received the smallest funds inflows, ergo the smallest boost )

However, some traders said that gold's slight spike up on the news
was anemic, given that it is supposed to be a safe haven during times of
political as well as economic crisis.

( Really means: gold shorts want American investors to believe that gold is NO longer a safe haven...and NEVER will be again. However, upon the President's announcement, one would normally expect the Street to focus upon oil investments and transport index shorts. Moreover, the Street spun the intervention as a pro- US Dollar action ) .
* * *
"It rallied briefly...It was a disappointing, anemic response," said
one trader. Another suggested that it had hardly fulfilled its role as a
"flight-to-quality" asset during times of trouble, but that it may be
boosted higher if the situation escalates.

( Really means: gold shorts want investors to keep buying US Dollars and US bonds as the ONLY "flights to safety" ) .

Clinton ordered the US military strikes this morning against terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan and Sudan who were suspected of carrying out the recent bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

( Really Means: Clinton, who has established a regime based upon general non-intervention in both global conflicts and economic levers ( such as a rise in interest rates ) is desperately trying to turn the American public's attention away from his penis. In doing so, he has attacked Islamic fundamentalists who subscribe to the concept of "blood feud," i.e., eye for an eye revenge ad infinitum. In doing so, he
has succeeded in killing overseas airline traffic for the next several months and guaranteeing an upspike in oil prices over the remainder of the much for that ZERO inflation rate we keep hearing about ) .

"Gold could see a rally at some point if it heats up," said the trader, but he noted that many of the larger financial players, such as funds, have recently not been active in precious metals.

( So who just removed $30 million of gold from the COMEX inventory...and who just purchased two weeks aggregate volume of XAU Calls? Duh...Ma and Pa Kettle? ) .

He said that as a result, some do not even have direct access to precious metals brokers and are thus slow to react to such news. "Some don't even have a line to the floor," he said.

( Really means: Me and all my Gold Short buddies are just praying the phone lines go down when the SH*T hits the fan and gold purchase orders come pouring in to the floor. Thanks God the margin requirements on our gold shorts have been reduced to help stall the inevitable!! )

Furthermore, the news, coming at the end of the session, did not give
many players time to digest it, said one trader, pointing out that most of today's gains were more a product of the dollar's pullback against the yen than the military strikes.

( Really Means: the gold shorts received a triple whammy today...a huge COMEX gold drawdown, an institutional purchase of a boatload of XAU calls, and the Presidential military strikes. They had just finished lunch and were having a hard time "digesting it all," mostly because they were puking up all over their shoes ) .



(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:00 - ID#431200)
Canada's Quebec ruling could be double-edged sword
August 20, 1998
Canada's Quebec ruling could be double-edged sword
OTTAWA, Aug 20 ( Reuters ) - The Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that Canada must negotiate on Quebec's secession if the French-speaking province clearly wins an independence referendum, but Quebec has no right to leave unilaterally.
 Tackling possibly the most contentious issue in Canada's 131-year history, the court voiced principles which federalists said bolstered their position, but which the separatists said conferred legitimacy on their ambitions.
 The separatist Quebec government gave no hint as to whether it would try to capitalize on the decision by calling a quick provincial election, but it made clear it intended to press eventually for another referendum on independence.
 "A clear majority vote in Quebec on a clear question in favor of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative which all of the other participants in Confederation would have to recognize," the nine high court judges said in their 78-page unanimous decision.
 "The other provinces and the federal government would have no basis to deny the right of the government of Quebec to pursue secession, should a clear majority of the people of Quebec choose that goal, so long as in doing so, Quebec respects the rights of others."
 The Canadian government, which in 1995 came within one percentage point of seeing the break-up of the federation in the last Quebec referendum, asked the court in September 1996 to rule -- in the calm between the storms -- whether Quebec could secede unilaterally.
 It got its answer, but with major caveats.
 "There is no right under the constitution or at international law, to unilateral secession, that is secession without negotiation..." the court said.
 It indicated a simple majority -- meaning one vote over 50 percent -- was not enough to destroy the country: "Canadians have never accepted that ours is a system of simple majority rule." It declined to specify what would constitute the clear majority it said was necessary.
 The court also accepted the arguments made by Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, that any referendum question had to be clear -- for example, asking directly whether Quebec should leave Canada.
 It ruled that the only way Quebec could legally secede was through a constitutional amendment, "which perforce requires negotiation." It said Quebec would not have an absolute legal right to insist on seceding as the outcome of such talks.
 But the court was equally adamant that Canada could not simply ignore a referendum but was obliged to enter into negotiations on such an amendment -- something the separatists were certain to seize upon.
 Chretien, a francophone Quebecker who has spent his life fighting secession, had said during the 1995 referendum that it was only consultative.
 Trying to ignore a Quebec vote would call into question "the continued existence and operation of the Canadian constitutional order," it said.
 Effectively, the ruling set out for the first time the basic framework for how secession would be carried out.
 It conceded that negotiations might hit an impasse.
 But it also dangled the possibility of Quebec seceding illegally -- and seeing if the world would follow.
 "This ( the domestic and international illegality ) does not rule out the possibility of an unconstitutional declaration of secession leading to a de facto secession," it said.
 "The ultimate success of such a secession would be dependent on recognition by the international community, which is likely to consider the legality and legitimacy of secession..."
 Chretien hailed the decision.
 "The court has confirmed that any possible process of independence must proceed in a manner that respects shared values that include federalism, democracy, constitutionalism and the rule of law, and respect for majority," he stated.
 He urged Quebec to "put aside this debate after two referendums in which Quebeckers have reaffirmed their attachment to Canada and rejected any form of separation."
 But Quebec cabinet minister Jacques Brassard, right-hand man to separatist Premier Lucien Bouchard, pledged to press ahead. He declared that 50 percent plus one constituted a clear majority and enough to move to negotiations on sovereignty.
 "We think that 50 plus one will permit us to launch the process of sovereignty," Brassard said in Quebec City.
 He also declared that if negotiations reached an impasse, Quebec would have the right to declare sovereignty.
 Some political scientists have said that some Quebec voters may however be reluctant to proceed unilaterally if they knew it was viewed as contrary to domestic and international law. The financial markets, which were expected to be roiled by a resurgence of political uncertainty following the decision, took the ruling calmly.
 The Canadian dollar, which has lost seven percent of its value in the past five months, was roughly unchanged at around 65.3 U.S. cents.
 Bouchard must call elections within a year, and there has been speculation he might do so as soon as this autumn. If he wins -- by no means guaranteed -- he would be entitled under Quebec law to hold another vote on independence.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:01 - ID#342256)
With friends like the liberal media....
... who needs enemies?

"One poll of just over 100 journalists found that 89% voted for Bill Clinton
in 1992.

Research has shown, however, that during Clinton's first 18 months in
office 62% of televised media broadcasts were negative compared to a
more balanced coverage of Bush's "conservative" years."

feeling ornery

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:02 - ID#206235)
@ Tolerant1
What did your post mean? I heard it reported that the attack was strictly cruise missiles, thus none of our military boyz put at risk? Or was it someone you know who has been tainted or hurt by one of the various scandals?

I think many hundreds of innocents have been hurt by this Sociopathic "Nice guy" clinton. Folks who have been loyal public servants like Betty Curry, who now has a $100 K legal bill, thanks to Clitton.

Folks like the Travel office employee's. Folks like Kathleen Wiley. Folks like the dozens who have died mysteriously who had close ties to Clitton.

They say Ken Starr's investigation has done nothing and yielded no wrong doing. What about all the clitton associates like Hubbel who were CONVCICTED of crimes due to Starr's investigation? I daresay the 40 Mil spent has been one of the most efficient at uncovering corruption as we have ever seen from a SP.

Now sorry to run off at the mouth. But we do care when one of our own is harmed, particularly by such a sleaze as we are talking about. But PLEASE Tol, be careful. They monitor everything, and they investigate everone when such a statement is made. You must denounce the man, but without the specific threats, yes? This administration is a dangerous one. They will abuse their power at every turn. Don't let it happen to you.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:02 - ID#210114)
Short but sweet. Beaming up now.
Live Long and Prosper.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:02 - ID#317193)
F*...the flight to safety comment was a plant....I mean really...pure spin

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:04 - ID#30116)
Cruise missiles?
If WJC loves to use these things so much, why did he cut the military budget? Inquiring ( or is it Enquiring ) minds want to know..........

I see GCZ8 didn't make $295 today. What will it take?

We have a president in deep sh*t.

A president who launches an attack against ???? and kills ??? for ??? reason?

Maybe he will succeed in pissing off the Mid East factions and drive the price of oil up and the dollar down?

A president who faces many calls to reign.

A president who may be impeached if he doesn't resign.

A president who, if he resigns, will probably face criminal prosecution.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:08 - ID#335190)
Canadian USofA Lackey, Jean Chretien @ Supports USofA War (NOT CANADIAN'S)
August 20, 1998

Canada joins small cheering section for U.S. attacks

LONDON ( AP-CP ) -- Britain, Canada, Israel and Australia expressed support Thursday for U.S. strikes on suspected terrorist targets in Afghanistan and Sudan, while some reports linked the attacks to President Bill Clinton's problems at home.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said he strongly supported the strikes,

Prime Minister Jean Chretien offered terse support for the attacks. "We believe terrorism cannot go unpunished," said a spokesman in the prime minister's office, noting few details on the strikes were available.

In Pakistan, religious leaders said they will offer special prayers and lead demonstrations against the U.S. attacks in Islamic nations.

"We won't allow this incident go by unnoticed. It is time for the Muslims of the world to unite," said Munaar Hasan, general secretary of the Jamiat-e-Islami, a political and religious group that is pledged to transforming Pakistan into a strict Islamic state.

Japan, a key U.S. military ally in Asia, said today it had no advance word from Washington on the air strikes and declined comment until it established the facts.

Prensa Latina, which generally expresses the opinions of Cuba's governing Communist party. "But the attacks, with the pretext of answering terrorism, may fuel more violence instead of eliminating it," the news agency added in its first report on the strikes.

The Prensa Latina article, headed "Arrogance does not kill terrorism, it fuels it," warned the strikes may provoke further violence.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:09 - ID#374204)
If BC were to resign or be impeached, then Gore our new pesident.
Either way, lots here are still left gagging. But,
what is the order of succession for VP.

Isn't speaker of the House next in line? Gore & Gingrich?
What happened when Nixon got the boot?

I've an excellent memory, but it's very very short.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:09 - ID#238422)
Clone, 19:46
He just killed some innocent Americans. It was an operation
which could not be successful in fighting terrosrists, from
military point of view. It was provocation, which had as its
purpose to invite more terrorist attacks. Those attacks will come.
Afganies are not gonna tolerate this sh*t...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:13 - ID#317193)
oris...CZ research says this is as good as you say...a little hard to find one
in my parts but i'm looking. Trying to avoid the permit thingie.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:17 - ID#368244)
@ Tolerant1

Please be careful !

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:18 - ID#30116)
Nixon resigned. VP Spiro Agnew was caught with some extra money from somewhere. :-0....

I don't remember why the Speaker of the House didn't succeed, but they went looking, and lo and behold they found Gerry Ford who picked Rockefeller ( sp? ) for VP.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:18 - ID#227238)
Gee the XAU is forming a nice little rally. Some 6% in 3 days. Looks just like 7/16 when it suckered some extra folks in for the last leg of the downtrend. Does history repeat?? ..... Buy it and find out.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:21 - ID#17077)
Yes, I'm Back...
Bart reminded me that he is the policeman on this forum K-2...the ONLY policeman.

Golly...for a second, I thought Multiple Personality ruled this place.

Whew! Now I'm relieved.



(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:26 - ID#335190)
No Deaths reported @ What is the body count??????
Thursday, August 20, 1998 Published at 22:40 GMT 23:40 UK

World: South Asia

Taleban will stand by bin

TheTaleban said it would never hand over Osama bin Laden

The Taleban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar has condemned
the US bombing of Afghanistan.

"There is no camp of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan," the
Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press quoted Mullah Omar as
saying in an interview by telephone from his headquarters in
the southern Afghan town of Kandahar. "We have already
closed his camps."
Libya, Iran and Iraq join condemnation

Libya's leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi telephoned
Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir after the air strike
to express his support, according to reports on Libyan
'No warning' to Pakistan

Pakistan said it had received no prior warning of the air
strikes from the US. Foreign minister Satraj Aziz said: "We
were not aware of anything and no facilities were provided by

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:26 - ID#317193)
tol1...can't say those things...OK....

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:27 - ID#227238)
Would the Canadians please elbow to the front of the line and take up some slack in the bandwidth with separatist issues. It's far more interesting than the US and wjc, with or without cruise missiles.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:29 - ID#227238)
I echo your concern. ....LIMITS .... T1, ya listening?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:29 - ID#290281)
Stolen from another thread
19 Reasons Gold Has Probably Bottomed

Posted on Thursday, August 13, 1998 at 09:44 AM
by James Turk
Freemarket Gold & Money Report

Investing requires taking action based on a calculation of
probabilities, not certainties. And right now the probabilities
suggest that the bottom for gold has already been reached.
By implication, we can conclude that a new bull market in Gold
is beginning right now. Hard to believe? Well, yes, frankly, it is
hard to believe, but that is already reason number one.

( 1 ) Bullish Consensus. Bull markets end when most everyone is
bullish. Bear markets end when most everyone is bearish. We
have now had very low bullish consensus readings four times
over the past year 18% on July 7th with Gold at $318.10, 18%
on December 4th at $286.50, 16% on January 12th at $278.30,
and 19% on June 15th at $284.60. Any reading in the teens is
unusual for Gold, and in the past has generally marked the
beginning of a new bull market. Four in-the-teens readings over
one year are unprecedented. This extreme level of bearishness
signals that a turn is at hand.
( 2 ) M3 Growth. M3 continues to grow at an alarming rate. The
annual rate was 11.1% in the week ending June 15th, another
13-year high. The Dollar is being debased, which inevitably
results in reduced purchasing power brought about by inflation
and/or a collapsing Dollar foreign exchange rate, which is bullish
for Gold.
( 3 ) Treasury Intervention. For the first time during the Clinton
administration, the Federal Reserve, acting for the Department of
Treasury, intervened in the foreign exchange markets to sell
Dollars. In this case, it sold Dollars to buy Yen. Treasury
Secretary Rubin has been adamant in his defense of a strong
dollar, stating that a strong Dollar is in the best interests of the
United States. He, of course, is correct. But now things have
changed. At this time, it is still uncertain why Mr. Rubin took this
action, but rumor has it that he was over-ruled by the President.
By this line of thinking, Clinton wanted his trip to China to go
smoothly, so he placated the Chinese by buying Yen, thereby
taking pressure off the Chinese to devalue their currency in an
attempt to remain competitive with the Japanese. In other words,
political considerations ruled over sound monetary practice, never
a good sign for any flat national currency. This action will cause
money to flow away from the Dollar, and Gold along with the
Swiss Franc and possibly the Deutschemark will be the natural
beneficiaries of the demise of Mr. Rubin's strong Dollar policy.
( 4 ) Japan. The Japanese economy and banking system are on
the verge of collapse. Importantly, the price of Gold continues to
rise in terms of Yen, and is now probing over-head resistance at
Y42,000 per ounce. A rising Gold price acts much like a
barometer, signaling bad weather ahead. The rising Yen price of
Gold will further frighten Japanese bank depositors about the
state of the Yen and the insolvent nature of the Japanese banking
system, so they will act to further withdraw funds from the
banks. Bank runs and/or bank 'holidays' have to be considered a
real possibility, and given the interlocking nature of the world's
banking system, problems in Japan will have worldwide
ramifications, all of which will be bullish for Gold.
( 5 ) Asia. The comments above regarding Japan apply to most of
Asia. Even though the banking systems of Hong Kong, China,
Thailand, Indonesia, etc., are not as important to the global
banking system as are the Japanese banks, failures and bank runs
in these countries will have worldwide ramifications, and bullish
implications for the Gold price.
( 6 ) Derivatives. While on the subject of Asia, bank derivative
exposure should be mentioned. For example, the $20 billion
bail-out of the Indonesian economy and its momentary and
banking system has been delayed. The reason is that derivative
exposure not heretofore known has increased the potential need
for funds to at least $30 billion, though at this stage, no one really
knows the total loss. And as the Indonesian economy continues
to slide into an abyss and as the Rupiah sinks along with it, these
losses continue to grow. The derivatives losses in the other Asian
countries are also mounting rapidly, particularly in Japan and
Hong Kong. These losses will add to the growing fear about the
insolvent nature of many Asian banks, which will cause
depositors to take money out of the banks and convert it into
safer vehicleslike Gold.
( 7 ) Currency Depreciation. Many currencies around the world
are collapsing. There are different reasons for the collapse, but
they have a common thread. These currencies are all flat
currency and therefore rely upon only one basic propconfidence.
And right now confidence in these currencies is collapsing, from
the Baht to the Rupiah to the Yen to the South African Rand. For
example, the Rand has depreciated by nearly 20% over just the
past few weeks. Investors learned a few years ago from the
Mexican Peso that once a currency begins to depreciate, it tends
to fall 'off a cliff', like the Rand is doing now. And investors also
know that Gold appreciates in local currency terms as the
currency collapses, making a flow of money from all of these
countries into Gold inevitable. By the way, the Peso and most
Latin American currencies are near or at near record lows, so
more currency bad news can be expected immediately ahead.
( 8 ) Currency Instability. After a period of relative calm,
exchange rates are again becoming more volatile. Rapid moves of
several percentage points within days or even hours are once
again occurring. This instability is not good because it causes an
increase in awareness of the fragility of most monetary systems,
which, in turn, causes fear to rise. This fear causes people to act,
and they typically do so by reducing uncertainty as much as
possible. They sell currencies and buy Gold.
( 9 ) Fear Index. The Fear Index of the US Dollar is at 1.37%, a
record low. Never before has confidence in the Dollar been this
high. Given all of the developing economic, financial and
monetary problems throughout the world and, in particular, also
given the demise of Mr. Rubin's strong Dollar policy, it seems
safe to conclude that the present extremely high level of
confidence is unsustainable. Fear will soon be rising, along with a
rising Gold price, particularly as the stock market falls.
( 10 ) Stock Market Top. The stock market is looking very
toppy. It is already a high risk market because of the extreme
level of overvaluation, so if its momentum ( which is the only
thing it has going for it ) now also starts to fade, then look out
below! Falling stocks will increase the level of fear, which will, in
turn, increase the flow of money into Gold.
( 11 ) Formation of the ECB. The European Central Bank has
been formed, and we will soon learn what its reserve policy will
be. We already know that Gold will have a role to play, which is
not too surprising, given Gold's historical role and unique
advantage as money. Besides, many central banks are increasing
their Gold hoard, like the Russians, who have just announced a
10 tonne increase so far this year to 525 tonnes. And, as the
Bank of France said recently in its annual report: "Neither the
U.S. Federal Reserve, nor the German Bundesbank, nor the
Bank of Italy, nor, of course, the Bank of France, plan to sell the
precious metal." Consequently, the fear of European dishoarding
will be lessened, and along with this decline, people will
increasingly move some of their wealth into Gold.
( 12 ) Interest Rates. Key interest rates around the world are out
of line. Dollar rates are too low. Yen interest rates are way too
low. Gold's interest rate has been way too high. Interest rates are
a reflection of risk, and there are basically two types of riskcredit
risk and price risk. Gold's interest rate is well above normal
historical levels, and should drop as the credit risk of national
currencies becomes more apparent as bank failures ( in Japan and
elsewhere ) once again become a front-page topic. Gold's interest
rate will drop as its price increases, thereby bringing a greater
availability of bullion supply into the market. The relationship of
various interest rates will return to normal levels, which means
the Gold price is destined to rise.
( 13 ) Technical Considerations. There are many positive
technical factors, but I'll group them into one reason. These
include the high short position in the precious metals at the
moment, the extreme oversold level that has been reached, the
length and magnitude of the decline, and that both Gold and
Silver have recently held important support. These factors are
( 14 ) US Trade Deficit. The US trade deficit is ballooning.
Record deficitsprobably over $300 billion per annumlie just
around the corner. These deficits will weaken the Dollar, which
probably already peaked against the European currencies in
August 1997. A weak Dollar will increase the demand for Gold,
and higher Gold prices will be the result.
( 15 ) Foreign & Domestic Debt. As noted above, the United
States is flooding the world with Dollars by importing countless
foreign made products and exporting Dollar denominated IOU's.
The United States is the world's largest debtor country as a
result. That is not a good position to be in. Debts eventually have
to be repaid, the ability to repay these debts has to be questioned.
This skepticism about the level of debts only increases when one
recognizes that it takes ever more debt to be created in the United
States to get an incrementally smaller growth in economic activity
as measured by GDP.
( 16 ) Gold Production. The output of newly mined Gold is
expected to remain stagnant, instead of growing as previously
forecast. Long-time readers of these reports know that I do not
put a lot of weight on production reports. For example, with
85,000 tonnes of monetary Gold in aboveground stocks that is
perfectly substitutable for newly mined Gold, does it really matter
much whether or not the miners produce 200 tonnes a year less
than expected? In reality, it matters very little. however, the new
forecasts of slower production are of some importance for one
reason. Declining or even stagnant production gets a lot of
publicity, and because it is perceived to be bullish, this news
should positively effect investor sentiment about Gold.
( 17 ) Commodity Prices. For most of this year, commodity
prices have been under pressure. Crude oil slid because a drop in
Asian demand led to over-production. Base metal prices were
also hurt by a drop in Asian demand. Foodstuffs were hit by a
stronger US Dollar and also by ideal growing conditions so far,
particularly in the US. However, the good news for lower
commodity prices is behind us. Commodity prices will begin
rising from here, which will have a bullish impact on precious
metal prices.
( 18 ) Credit Risk. In a period of rising confidence, credit risk is
rarely questioned, let alone doubted. However, it is an undeniable
fact that not all IOU's are repaid. Inevitably, some loans go bad,
and some promises to pay are not fulfilled. Historically investor
and consumer confidence rises and falls along with such factors
as economic output, stock prices, etc. When confidence falls, the
public increasingly turns to Gold because it is the only money that
is no one else's liability, and is therefore immune to credit risk.
Credit risk has been ignored, even forgotten, since the early
1990's. That disinterest is about to change. Problems in the banks
in Asia, and soon thereafter, problems in US banks being affected
by the collapse in Asia, will cause the public to once again look
more closely at credit risk. When they do, they will recognize that
the level of confidence today in the banking system is ill-founded,
so they will respond by shifting money out of currencies into
( 19 ) Great Value. Very rarely does a bell ring when it comes to
investing. But a loud bell did ring early this year when Warren
Buffett, the doyen of value investors, announced that he had
acquired 130 million ounces of Silver. It was a wake-up call that
Silver in particular, and the precious metals in general,
represented great value. As a consequence, Warren Buffett in
effect announced to the world that the previous metals should be
looked at by anyone wanting to acquire an undervalued asset,
which is the basic strategy that made him so successful as an
investor. Years from now it will probably be clear that Mr.
Buffett had picked the bottom of the market to accumulate his
precious metal position.

To conclude, it is well known that bull markets end in exhaustion,
i.e., all buying has been spent. Bear markets end in capitulation,
i.e., the last weak hand has sold. Regarding Gold and Silver, we
have seen unprecedented capitulation, as well as unprecedented
Things, however, do change eventually, and it now looks like the
time has finally come for a change in the precious metals. The
many reasons for change are there; the extreme level of
undervaluation is also there. These factors provide a potent mix.
The result could turn out to be an explosive rally in Gold and
silver in the last half of the year.
A rally in the previous metals? An unexpected conclusion? Yes,
but bear markets end when least expected.

Source: Freemarket Gold & Money Report, P.O. Box 5002,
North Conway, NH 03860.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:30 - ID#432298)
Regarding your 20:18 posting. Can you elaborate plaease. Thanks.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:32 - ID#238422)
Old Soldier
Old Soldier, what do you think about practical
effectiveness of those missile strikes against
terrorists? We do not have all details yet, but
it seems it was a pure political shot with a purpose
to trigger more attacks on the U.S. and keep U.S.
citizens busy thinking about their safety...while
Mr.President tries to clean the dress...

I believe that if any military people are serious about
destroying terrorist organization, which is a group
of people and equipment located in several areas,
even close to each other, only sudden attack by the
coordinated group of trained military units can do
the job. No bombings ( except atomic ) can achive the goal
of winning the fight with groups of indiviaduals...

Would like to know your professional opinion, may be I'm
too old fashioned, you know, I still prefer steel guns to
plastic ones.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:32 - ID#225236)
clinton's final legacy, LGB
Hi LGB! I am glad you have joined the ranks of clinton critics. Better later than never. I think the event calls for little cronology:

1992 Election: America has to choose a new President ( some say big daddy for Americans ) . Well there are several candidate daddies:

One of them is boring and without substance, does not promise much.

The next one tells how irresponsible we have been and that some hard work will be required to fix things.

The third ( daddy clinton ) promises everybody to promise everything they want to be promised. Has some nasty skeletons in his closet, but who cares. Do not worry, be happy!!!

Daddy clinton enters office and learns some nasty things about economy and how the US paper markets work: "You mean to tell me my presidency depends on some f***ing bond traders" ( clinton quote from Bob Woodward's book "The agenda" ) .

How is daddy clinton to deliver on all those promises of shiny new things for every American? Well, following the new American tradition, daddy clinton runs up the big national credit card. The newly printed money rather then cause instant inflation, gets fueled into the Stock Market, which reaches new heights. Who needs to worry about the credit card bill when the times are so good? Only insane gold-bugs.

Do not worry, be happy!!! Daddy clnton is so good!!! Just look at all the new RV's the old geezers were able to buy and all the new false teeth they now have!!! Daddy running around and screewing everything with a hole in it? Who cares! Daddy clinton starting wars to distract us from his perversions? Who cares about some dead foreigners as long as Daddy clinton buys us all we wanted?!

Well the credit card bills do finally get delivered. When this happens, everybody will suddenly discover that daddy clinton was no good!!! Daddy clinton will be back in his Arkansas trailer park with his cheap whores ( place he would never have left if Americans did not believe in pies in the sky ) .

The damage done will however never be outdone. It cannot be. The price will be high!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:33 - ID#335190)
Thursday, August 20, 1998 Published at 15:18 GMT 16:18 UK

World: South Asia

Aid agencies quit Afghanistan

Many Afghans rely on international aid

International aid agencies have begun pulling their staff out
of Afghanistan following a warning from the United States
that they could be in danger.

The agencies said the American State Department was not
specific about the danger but said there were threats to
non-Muslim aid workers.

BBC Afghanistan Correspondent Pam O'Toole says it is not
clear if the perceived danger is linked to speculation that
Washington may be about to mount an attempt to seize Saudi
dissident Osama bin Laden, who is living in Afghanistan.

Mr bin Laden is regarded as a suspect in the recent bombings
of American embassies in Africa.

He has denied any involvement in that attack, but has told
the BBC he would continue his war against the Americans
and the Jews.

In the wake of the Africa bombings the US evacuated
non-essential personnel and their relatives from its embassy
in Pakistan because of what it called a very serious threat to

Taleban refuse to hand over suspect

The Taleban movement, which controls much of
Afghanistan, has ruled out the possibility of handing over
Mr bin Laden to the US Government in return for recognition
by Washington.

The founder of the Taleban,
Mullah Mohammed Omar, said
that the Saudi dissident could
not have been not involved
with the attacks as did not have
the power or the resources to
explode bombs in Africa.

However, the Washington Post
has reported Pakistani
intelligence sources as saying
that a suspect extradited to
Kenya, Mohammed Sadiq
Howaida, confessed he was
involved in the bombings and
said Osama bin Laden sponsored and financed the operation.

The row comes amid growing tension between aid agencies
and the Taleban.

Aid sources say the atmosphere has become increasing tense
in recent weeks, as the Taleban have consolidated their hold
over most of the country.

Russian concern

Meanwhile, Russia and Tajikistan have again voiced their
concern over the fighting in northern Afghanistan.

They say the escalation of bloodshed and military activity
near the Tajik-Afghan border poses a direct threat to the
southern flank of the Commonwealth of Independent States
( CIS ) .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:34 - ID#374204)
Panda - now I remember. Killed those brain cells summer of '82.
So, if Gore could hand pick a VP...hmmmm ...tell me it's not true.

Bruce Babbitt? ( the sphinx )

I'm still gagging. Time for a large gulp, to ya! gracias

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:36 - ID#267344)
Oris - a very interesting point of view you have presented
In the guise of fighting terrorism, America has responded with a couple terrorist acts of its own. No declaration of war, no honor. Overt, long distance attacks against targets and people whom Americans have never faced. The guilt is really starting to get me - I have not done enough to stop the war pigs. I feel very responsible for the Sudanese who are still lying in the rubble of that "chemical" facility. It is possible that another heart has stopped beating as I write this message - by my inaction, my taxes, my ignorance. America cannot be proud of this act of cowardice. "The bravery of being out of range," as Roger Waters would say. -c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:38 - ID#30116)
Computers can be a useful thing, because they don't forget...

Here is some more info the Nixon/Ford era.

A little blurb on Agnew's death;

And this is from a much longer thing on Ford, but the history is here.

Vice President

Two days after Spiro Agnew resigned on Oct. 10, 1973, President Nixon nominated Ford to succeed him under a provision of the 25th

Amendment the U. S. CONSTITUTION. After a thorough investigation, Ford was approved by both houses of Congress and sworn in

as vice president on December 6.

The Republican party was sagging under the weight of the Watergate scandal, and the vice president, in hundreds of public appearances,

sought to rally the party faithful. He expressed the belief that President Nixon was not involved in the Watergate cover-up. But the

president, after being forced to release damaging evidence, resigned after it became apparent that he would be removed through the

impeachment process. Ford was sworn in as president at noon on Aug. 9, 1974, by Chief Justice Warren Burger in the East Room of the

White House.


The new president tried to restore public confidence in the national leadership and in the institutions of government. His administration was

one of the most open in years, and Ford sought to emphasize candor in his relationships with the public and the press. But in both

domestic and world affairs he inherited problems that did not lend themselves to quick solutions.

Presidential Appointments

Ford nominated, and Congress approved, former New York Gov. Nelson ROCKEFELLER to be vice president of the United States.

Thus for the first time the nation's two top offices were occupied by men who had not been elected to either office.

By mid-1976, Ford had replaced all but three members of the Nixon CABINET. Only Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Secretary of

Agriculture Earl Butz, and Secretary of the Treasury William Simon remained in their posts. In November 1975, Ford requested the

resignation of Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger and Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) Director William Colby. Schlesinger had

tended to favor a firmer line against the Soviet Union, and Colby had struggled with mixed results to handle public scrutiny of the

scandal-plagued CIA. Ford appointed as replacements White House Chief of Staff Donald Rumsfeld to Defense and Ambassador

George BUSH to the CIA.

Elliot Richardson, ambassador to Britain, was brought home to take over the Department of Commerce and was replaced in London by

Anne Armstrong. Other cabinet changes included the appointment of Thomas Kleppe to the Department of the Interior; F. David

Mathews to Health, Education and Welfare; William Coleman, Jr., the second black to serve in a cabinet, as secretary of transportation;

and John Dunlop and W. J. Usery, Jr., as secretaries of labor. Daniel Moynihan resigned as ambassador to the United Nations and was

replaced by former Pennsylvania Gov. William Scranton. Edward H. Levi and Carla Hills were named attorney general and secretary of

housing and urban development, respectively.

President Ford made his only appointment to the U. S. Supreme Court in 1975, choosing John Paul Stevens to serve as an associate

justice. The only other major change came with the announcement in 1975 by Vice President Rockefeller that he would not be available

as Ford's running mate in 1976. Rockefeller's action may have been requested by Ford campaign strategists, who hoped to blunt

opposition to Ford by conservative Republicans.

The Pardon of Nixon

Ford's "honeymoon" with Congress and the public ended on Sept. 8, 1974, when he granted a "full, free and absolute pardon" to former

President Nixon "for all offenses against the United States which he ... has committed or may have committed or taken part in" while he

was president. Nixon accepted the pardon. The response from newspapers, members of Congress, and the general public was

overwhelmingly negative. The critics contended that the pardon was premature because it precluded possible indictment that might have

led to answers to some of the remaining Watergate questions. They argued that it undercut the work of the Watergate special prosecutor

and provided plausible grounds for all those convicted of Watergate crimes to seek pardons.

Appearing before the U. S. House Committee on the Judiciary, Ford explained that there were no deals connected with the pardon. He

said he hoped his action would end the nation's preoccupation with Watergate and help the former president to regain his health.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:39 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, I don't know if you are serious, but if
you really want one, I can give you details upon
your request. $299.95+$9.95 S&H. Cheap, believe me.
You do need FFL or FFL dealer to receive it from the
company. Fit and finish on this lot of CZs are very,
very good, plus they give you 1 politically incorrect
15 rd. magazine ( 10 round magazine in also included ) .

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:40 - ID#227238)
I only meant to say that it's a luscious looking rally. Not unlike many others that we've seen these past couple of years. That failed ..... Is 60 the bottom of the XAU? If so it will have spent only a week in that region. For a higher probability entry, one would have to wait for a break of 70 - 72. .... and give up 15 -20% from the bottom. ... Choices, choices. ....... The trouble with learning from experience is that you always get the test, ...... before you get the lesson.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:40 - ID#433143)
What fine vodka would that be?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:42 - ID#219363)
Will bottom at -20. Haven't you heard, it's like dirt, they pay you to haul it away.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:43 - ID#335190)
Osama bin Laden with God's help ? @ Kill Americans & plunder their money. (USofA didn't pay him EH!)
Thursday, August 20, 1998 Published at 20:43 GMT 21:43 UK

World: South Asia

Who is Osama bin Laden?

Osama bin Laden: the man the US believes is behind the embassy bombings

Osama bin Laden - a wealthy Saudi dissident based in
Afghanistan - is one of the best known of the so-called
"Arab Afghans".

Only a few weeks before the bombings of US embassies in
east Africa, he renewed his threat to wage a holy war against
the United States.

He who fought against Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the

The son of a Saudi construction magnate, he went into the

Turn against the US

The Afghan jihad was backed with American dollars and had
the blessing of the governments of Saudi Arabia and

However, after the Soviet withdrawal, the Arab Afghans
turned their fire against the United States and US-backed
regimes in the Middle East.

Mr bin Laden has laid out his case against the United States
in a series of fatwas, or religious edicts, faxed to the outside
world from his hideout in Afghanistan.

"We - with God's help - call on every Muslim who believes in
God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God's order to
kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and
whenever they find it," read a February fatwa.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:43 - ID#30116)
Isn't tomorrow a double witch?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:44 - ID#317193)
oris or I have four othewr e-mails i could use. Serious...yes. Thanks.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:47 - ID#227238)
If you would be so kind. I would enjoy receiving details on said hardware as well. Please email me:

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:49 - ID#267344)
The waiger was origionally a fifth of B&W Smirnoff. I dont know what that is, so I got the silver label instead, 100 proof. -c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:50 - ID#28994)
The Six Nation native population is the Canadian army.
They have told the french they are not separating.
If the French Canadians vote to separate,the natives will have there own country, THE FRENCH LOSE AGAIN..... nothing new in history.
The recent gun legislation in Canada is a political front for the disarming of Canada in order to control the feared outbreak of a civil war over the separation of Quebec.
It is common knowledge the natives in Canada are a well armed force and also getting well trained.
The Canadian Government has done absolutley nothing to discourage the natives.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:52 - ID#373403)
I find it signifigant that we did not bomb these terrorist targets with the permission of the Sudanese government. Is there any word out of Pakistan whether we bombed with permission? Have we just declared war on two sovereign nations?

This quote from inside Sudan:
Hussein angrily denied U.S. allegations that the factory was a chemical weapons plant. ``It is not chemical weapons. It is a factory for medical
drugs,'' he told CNN.

``We have no chemical weapons factory in our country,'' he said. State-run TV gave no indication of how extensive the damage to the pharmaceutical factory was or whether there were casualties.

The newscaster ended the broadcast by saying: ``We will defend our country.''

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:52 - ID#402131)
Oris-CZ 9mm
Oris, I bought a clone of the CZ called the Witness by Tanfoglio
in .45 colt auto. Love it as second. Its not a .45 Colt Government but I like the double action. Trigger stroke is a bit long but I never liked a cocked and locked .45 in my pants-accident prone/possibility. 9mm is a bit light for my taste but ammo should be available almost anywhere

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:53 - ID#317193) I can start looking...any other clips a S&W...
that you know of. I know this is off subject so you could just e-mail such.

Thanks Brother.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:54 - ID#432157)

To fully understand our current Supreme Court decision you really have to be a Canadian . ( Sorry ) Canada has been plaged with the Que problem since Confederation or the Plains of Abraham .
Basically they ( QUE-Seperation ) ) have used this threat for generations and have gotten away with it.

Now we have a Constituton which has been ratified by the Supreme Court and guarantees all Canadians equal rights etc. This is very similar to the US Constitution .

This is VERY VERY hard to explain .

Suffice to say WE got our Country back and OUR laws mean Something to all Canadians . GO CANADA from SEA to SEA

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:56 - ID#347447)
Brother Oris, a missile attack on a terrorist "base" or camp, as you have noted, is really not an efficient or effective way to disperse guerillas. However, it seems to me that the REAL message in this kind of attack is to alert the host nation of such marauders that the U.S. will not accept their complicity. It is a very insulting and demeaning thing for a nation to have its soil strafed and bombed by another nation with impunity. There is currently no nation on earth that could go toe to toe with the USA in an actual full-scale war. Perhaps China on the ground, but that is highly unlikely, and Beijing will keep its nose clean here. So such official nations hosting terrorists will have to swallow hard.

So the point of such a response is to serve notice to nations hosting terrorists ( or "freedom fighters," depending on your point of view ) that their territorial integrity and sanctity will be violated. This will either embarrass such nations, or goad them to even more cooperative measures with guerilla fighters. We shall see. But the stakes are rapidly mounting, and a price must be put on the table for every action from now on. Like a poker game, the stakes will be raised as we go, until someone finds it uncomfortable.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:56 - ID#227238)
Yes it 'tis. Yes it 'tis. So far it looks like a non-event. Many puts are likely to receive an unceremonious burial. Yes?? ....... I cannot speak as an expert but it has come as brutally received wisdom that IF one is inclined to buy those miserable lotto tickets; it must be done when the market looks the rosiest and one must do a Dr. Strangelove impression in order to force the hand to pick up the phone. Yes? ...... Like buying gold at the bottom ...... if we could just figger out who misplaced the bottom.

BTW, when you have a moment, please drop me a line regarding your use of TS. It's a conversation I would like to pursue.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:56 - ID#373403)
Not Pakistan, sorry.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:57 - ID#238422)
You can not be responsible directly for this action.
The bad thing about this action is that it was
technically ( military ) useless in the fight against terrorism.
Once again, it was provocation, pure and simple. In some time
we gonna learn that the "meeting of terrorist leaders", which
was used by Clinton and his people for justification,
was of the same nature as "Waco child abuse". I would really
love to see all these bad terrorist guys dead, but the fact
is that you can not kill'em unless you SEE THEM.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 21:58 - ID#347447)
Buying at the bottom is easy. I have bought at every bottom in gold in the past year!

Da Phai!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:00 - ID#374204)
6pak - thanks to you also for triggering my gray matter
I remember him as the young son of a rich father who went underground/outlaw during the Afghan/USSR conflict.

Uncle Sam again making a future enemy of a disposable asset.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:02 - ID#347447)
stolen or not, thanks for your 21:19.
Very hopeful.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:03 - ID#267344)
Oris, yesss...
I wonder when people are going to start trying to understand the cause of the problem of terrorism and fix that instead of trying to react to the effects. People don't just lay down their lives to kill others without serious provocation. Why are they so serious about killing civilians? Could it be.... American Imperialism??? -c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:04 - ID#349224)
BOJ worries about major bank failure

Friday, August 21, 1998
Volume 3 No:759 Issued: 10:00 a.m. JST

BOJ Raises Concern Over Impact Of Possible Major Bank Failure

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) -As the Japanese Diet debates a set of key financial-system bills, the Bank of Japan is raising concern over the impact of the failure of any of the nation's 19 major banks.

A BOJ official warned on Thursday that the Japanese banks could be
shut out of global money markets if a major bank collapsed. "If a well-capitalized bank with a capital ratio of above 10% were to fail, credit lines to Japanese banks as a whole could be frozen due to doubts about the reliability of capital ratios disclosed by Japanese banks," the official said.

The comments highlight concerns inside the government and the central
bank about the economic impact of a bank failure if Japan does not have
a framework in place to contain the fallout.

At this point, the BOJ and the government appear to be signaling that
they are giving the highest priority to preventing the failure of a major
bank, even above questions dealing with the responsibility of bank
management or shareholders.

The message comes amid reports that the BOJ and the government are
preparing measures to facilitate a merger between the troubled
Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan ( 8303 ) and Sumitomo Trust &
Banking Co. ( 8403 ) .

Arguing that it is imperative to avoid any collapse, BOJ Governor
Masaru Hayami earlier pointed to the possibility of losses stemming from
bank positions in derivatives.

A number of market insiders say that the likelihood of huge losses is
slim, provided that the government guarantees payments to unwind

Even so, financial authorities fear that even the mechanics of closing derivative positions all at once could trigger market volatility.

The BOJ calls the impact of a bank failure on gross domestic product
impossible to estimate. Yet, the damage inflicted on the regional
economy of Hokkaido by the collapse of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank
suggests that the national economy could be hurt seriously.

( The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Friday morning edition )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:04 - ID#259400)
@Envy, Ear;
Ok, guys what have I missed here? XAU is up from 60 to 62 and you guys are talking rally. Need a little more than that for a rally.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:07 - ID#267344)
Global Markets
The Americas really got hit hard today, esp Venezuela @ -9%. Asia is bleeding too. -c

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:07 - ID#28994)
Take a look at the voting map of Quebec in past elections, the city of Montreal saved the vote from going SEPARATION on every election.
The young people of Quebec are getting a daily dose of propaganda every day, they will vote to overide Montreal and separate.
The native Canadians will then take over.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:10 - ID#288295)
TYoung, BuGaL

You two were earlier mentioning the softness in price of DROOY. I seem to remember that there were reports of heavy buying from the Hong Kong & Shanghai Bank, near the lows last spring. If China and Japan are about to have a financial crisis, perhaps these events are related.

If the bank is in trouble, or sees big trouble coming, they may be dumping their shares. Someone sold a 500,000 share block last week - very likely institutional selling.

All this is speculation, but I can't think of another good reason why a maximum-overdrive-leveraged gold producer like DROOY should go down when the price of gold is no doing so.

There may be a lesson in this that some of us don't want to know ( myself included ) , and it bears watching.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:11 - ID#227238)
As you well know, 'Mericans are firmly constrained in the matter of knowing anything of value about Canada. It's history, culture and traditions. I suppose it has something to do with restricting public access to first hand knowledge of our colonies. ( Just kidding )

OTOH, Canada just like the US was stolen fair and square from the aboriginals .... er First Nation folks. I can well understand that an armed, well trained militia composed of these folks might be a cause for concern among the generally unarmed populice. But what's a concerned government to do?

Here in 'Merica, things have taken a different course. The Noble Native American, Chief Protector of Mother Earth and all things holy is recovering his assets through the slot machine. And it's working pretty well from all accounts. ....... Bussing folks from Montreal to gaming parlors in the NW territories has some merit, don't you think?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:11 - ID#257136)
mozel your post of 00:34 asks if there is a Tax Protestor tatoo on my IMF. I fear so, as I was one
of the founders of the National Tax Strike Association.

It was in the 70s. In Denver.

I learned a lot about the lengths to which the treasonous critters who claim to own us will go.

The only extensive vacation of my life was served in Safford,Arizona FPC.

Met a lot of interesting folks, many of whom were investors.

Of course it was because they were investing other folks money that they were in an fpc to begin with.

I have kept a low profile for a long time.

It is my earnest hope that I do not have to become an active participant again, as I am 18 yrs older than I was when I was permitted to return home.

I know that it is somewhat risky even now to do and say some of the things I am doing and saying.

But what the hay?

We only live once in this cocoon, right?

It is with a certain amount of trepidation i see what is happening all around us.

I was a personal friend of Gordon Kahl.

Am personally acquainted with the leader of the Aryan Nations Church of Jesus Christ Christian. Richard Butler.

While I do not share the beliefs of the aryans or the oReDR OF THE cHRISTIAN iDENTITY MOVEMENT, i KNOW I AM IN THE SAME FILE AS ARE THEY.

tOO MANY DETAILS TO GO INTO ON LINE AND REALLY NOT IMPORTANT, but the fact I know them is all it could take, if another witch hunt begins.

I made my wife a promise to pull in my horns in june of 1977.

and was indicted in september of that year.

Tried in Jan of 1978, case # 78CR3, tenth judicial district, Denver, CO.

It is somewhat problematic for me to get active again.

My wife released me from my promise about three years ago.

I find I have not the time or temperament to get involved as I once was.

Of course, the criminals could care less if I am not planning to do any more resistance stuff.

If they are seeking scapegoats, there are a few of us left.

Not many of our bunch, however. Most are dead.

As to my paranoia and any plans the adversary may have for me, que cera!

I don't even have a food supply.

That sets a very poor example, I know.

If all the stuff in the ex os comes to pass, it will mean a real shootout for those who do have supplies and are set upon by one of the large FEMA groups.

The concept of federales foraging has a connotation of implied violence from where I sit.

One can only take it one day at a time and keep the eyes peeled.

If I were really paranoid, I would have to go somewhere else and do something else.

Gotta stop this drivel, as it is far from your question.

No apologies for the extensive ado about nearly nothing.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:11 - ID#334219)
On Canada, all we got is a framework. The issues are still outstanding. If Quebec vote "Yes" to a clear question at the next referendum..then Ottawa and all other provinces will be force to negotiate the separation with Quebec. This is a worst scenarion and will be extremely painfull.

You will get Canada back only if either:

1 ) Quebec go its own way and separate
2 ) Quebec definitely vote "No" with a large majority to a clear question asking for independance.
3 ) Canada finally negotiates a suitable deal to keep Quebec in Canada.

IMO, option 2 is out of question. That leaves us with 1 ) and 3 ) . The way Canada has been doing for the past 40 years make me believe that it is only a question of time before option 1 ) rules, unfortunetely.

BTW, Quebeckers are not RAVING BASTARDS.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:11 - ID#37463)
Yo, Panda
Its double witching day tomorrow-Hillary and Tipper

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:15 - ID#288295)
Big Bucks spent

My wife just told me she heard on the news that 75 cruise missles were used in the attacks today. Sure wish they had spent the money on gold instead - those puppies cost $1 MM a pop.

Aw, I'm sure we got our moneys's worth. At least it got our boy Bill away from his wife for a while. ( ;^ ) )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:16 - ID#238422)
I like 9 mm for the same reason, you can find this
ammo anywhere in the world. I know EAA Witness guns,
they are good. I just wanted original Czech gun.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:19 - ID#227238)
I don't think you missed anything. That was my point. Such as it was.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:19 - ID#30116)
Interest rate spreads.....
Here is a chart of the spread between the thirty year U.S. Bond and ninety day money.....

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:20 - ID#411259)
..... Nobody Believes this Charade .....

When it become impossible
To properly discern
A countrys motivation
Because of worries
About its leaders personal motives
It is time for that leader
To step down.

He has now proven
He will murder
For a few points
In the polls

This man is done
He should just shut up
And leave
Afore we run him out


(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:21 - ID#30116)
Earl--- CRB vs. XAU
Here ias a chart of the CRB index versus the XAU. Pick the direction and place your bets... uh, I mean, invest accordingly....

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:22 - ID#227238)
If you would like to pursue that thread further, please drop me a line when you have a chance.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:28 - ID#384350)
US Bombings
Does anyone know the number of people killed or wounded, and if there were women or children killed?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:28 - ID#227238)
ASB. ..... Dreadful. Confounded even further because the CRB of today is more heavily weighted in grains than it once was...... But what good is it to be a goldbug if not to attempt, once again, some spear catching.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:32 - ID#30116)
Earl, Tortfeasor
Earl I will get back to you about TS. I have to get my thumb out of the belt sander first though. It's amazing how flesh can be torn like that. OUCH!

Howdy Tort! Been awhile since I've seen you here. As far as Bill goes... The Libs calling up the talk shows around here are SHOCKED just SHOCKED that gambling is... Sorry, wrong movie....

But seriously. There was something about WJC's speech on monday night that just pushed the wrong button for a lot of women it seems. Now, with the, "Wag the Dog", play coming on the heals of ???? What do you call it? Monica? WJC is done, it's just a matter of time now. Both male and female LIBS are 'confused, disappointed, dazed,....,shocked'. Yup, a matter of time now...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:33 - ID#45173)
@clone and oris
clone: 100 proof? Wups. That expains why I'm getting hammered. Thought it was 80. Thanks again.. Yes, I got your note. Much appreciated. Will send email.

oris: your 21:09. The attack was to build US taxpayer support for increased, inflationary military spending. I bolted out of DC post haste, since the recipients of the delivery are no doubt willing to step up and prove the necessity of further US weapons. How much to 75 - 100 cruise missiles cost, anyway? Also, not freezing the vodka, per your instructions.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:34 - ID#227238)
Is Quebec so downtrodden and oppressed that it needs special dispensation in order to remain in the confederation? If so how about the other provinces? From this side of town it appears that the rest of Canada has bent over backwards to accomodate Quebec on it's hot buttons. Especially the cultural issues. ....... It's a slow nite. ....... Might as well get emboiled in issues about which I know little of substance.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:34 - ID#28994)
Those IDIOTS in Quebec have never figured out that FRENCH is not the worlds business language, they are running #4. in language use worldwide.
They are cornered in there own little part of the world.........Let the natives take them over.
They have some police enforcing french only signs in Quebec.


(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:36 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheller
Brother Mike, you are classically correct,
but please tell me what country ever reacted CORRECTLY
to the American "missle warning"? It was always good
on paper, but you perfectly know that if you want
to win the war, you just go in and kill'em, untill
they're all dead. Right now we are trying to fight ( ? )
"Allah Akbar" people, who hate to be treated with
disrespect and care sh*t about the Great American Idea
of Superiority, because it does not fit their beliefs
in principle. It would probably work for good old Europe
or even USSR, but will never work in "Allah Akbar" places.

So, in this case this approach is wrong, and administration
should know that. And because they know it, and still did
it, in this case it is a provocation.

It's like assuming that because you can drink 6 pack of
beer, you can also drink six pack of vodka, because both
drinks are alcohol. Yes, it is alcohol, but of different
kind. 6 pack of vodka is stupid to drink...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:39 - ID#240316)
XAU Trendline broken?
Is my chart wrong, or did the xau break the upper trendline extending from the April top down across the mid-July high? Could that be why there was heavy call action today?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:41 - ID#30116)
The backlash is on. What I want to know is... What's in Ken Starr's report? It can't be sex. It's got to be something else. Something truly devastating to the WJC White House. I have a feeling that IF the report is ever made public, tar and feathers will be the order of the day. On the other hand, it would be quit a spectacle to see the Marines assault the White House in order to evict the current occupants on orders from Congress. I doubt that WJC will leave with out a fight. Where's Janet Reno when you need her???

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:41 - ID#39857)
Friday 21 August, 1998 ( 12:10pm AEST )

A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 on the Richter
scale has struck part of Japan.

Japan's Meteorological Agency says the quake was centred
400-kilometres under the seabed off Torishima island, south of Tokyo.

A quake of magnitude seven is considered major and is capable of
causing widespread, heavy damage.

There have been no immediate reports of damage or injuries, but the
quake was felt in Tokyo and caused some buildings to sway.

The Meteorological Agency said there was no fear of tsunami,
undersea waves triggered by volcanic activity or earthquakes.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:41 - ID#227238)
Yes a belt sander is capable of reducing more things than wood. Woodworking has been my avocation for 30 years. ...... If your looking for the finest in sanding equipment, check out a German company by name of Fein. In a word: Superb. But a mite spensive. ..... For all around sanding their 6 in. random orbital disk sander beats all others 10:1. Hook it up to dust collector and you be a happy camper. Sanding will become ( almost ) a pleasure. ....... and it's more difficult to hog off a piece of your finger. {:- )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:42 - ID#335190)
Russian Public Angry & Yeltsin's Resignation ? @ What about the USofA ?
Some 65 percent of 6,000 Russians surveyed earlier this month
said that the government "can no longer count on the patience of
the population," Interfax reported on 19 August. That figure was
up from 50 percent in March. But the number prepared to join
strikes, participate in armed insurrection, block traffic or seize
enterprises remains low, ranging from 6 and 11 percent, according
to the Sociology and Parliamentarism Institute, which conducted
the poll. PG

Representatives of 40 leftist organizations agreed on 19 August to
call for Yeltsin's resignation when the Duma convenes on 21
August, Interfax reported. Communist leader Gennadii Zyuganov
said he is "absolutely confident" that at least 300 deputies will
support a resolution calling for the president's resignation or
impeachment. "The president has made everybody sick,"
Zyuganov said. And he suggested that "when the legislators and
broad masses of working people join their efforts, the president
can be forced to resign." PG

Who Cares?__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:43 - ID#242328)
75 cruise missiles


Those could have been put to good use against Congress.

Still, there's plenty more where those came from, hey, Prez? : )

I'm surprised to see LGB is so negative on our new eternal
Master for All Time. : ) Dang, you guys are starting to make
ME look reasonaby un-paranoid. : )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:44 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...tanks

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:44 - ID#25196)
Australian Gold Stocks Down
Can anyone out in Kitco land tell me why Aussie Gold Stocks are down when the gold price is up overnight.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:44 - ID#238422)
TYoung and Earl, check youe e-mail.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:45 - ID#78136)
I'll bite. Yes we have bent over backwards because they
essentially control our Parliament. Every other leader of
the country comes from Quebec. Let them go once they can
demonstrate the immediate repayment of their share of the
National Debt. Quebec was showered with gifts and resulting
Federal Debt. The Feds could then pay down debt or better yet
buy gold. Probably a better investment for the Bank of Canada
than the way they now support the dollar.
Quebec is the least of Canadians' problems. How are we going
to stay warm on y2k? It does not look like this is much of
a concern to our politicians since Canada' Year 2000 Taskforce
has been disbanded. Quebec's survival will be a little more

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:46 - ID#30116)
You are NOT hallucinating, it's just that so many of us here have been burnt in the past.....present.....future.... that we don't believe anything any more. :- ) )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:46 - ID#39857)
Its time to prey.
But for gods sake dont face Mecca or a cruise missile might
blind side you. Oh dear, also time to get pissed and write

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:49 - ID#238422)
High quality vodkas are O.K. at room temperature,
cheap brands require some cooling, usually to
+4C degrees Yes, indeed, I would not recommend
"deep freezing" of any vodka, but it's my personal
preference. Do not forget about pickle...

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:50 - ID#335190)
Hi skinny
You know "NOT" EH! Just doing your thing, on the Quebec issue, right ?
Take Care

Hi Earl.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:51 - ID#300202)
Jesuits ruled P.Q. Frenchmen-u become the prosperous farmers & English-u
must become the poor shopkeepers. Conclusion was vice versa. Those original planted seeds brought us forward to today. I believe that German Jews were relegated to be "poor" shopkeepers.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:52 - ID#259260)
CHEEZ, Puetz.............Crash on track??
Gentleman. On Sunday, I opined that the coming week would see a higher DOW close by Friday than it's open on Monday. It now appears to be a toss-up. Eitehr of you want to venture an opinion as to tomorrow's close?

( Like I have to ask!!!! )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:54 - ID#238422)
6 pack.
...6-11 percent only ready to act seriously.

By the way, it's 8-15 million people....
quite enough for serious trouble.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:55 - ID#45173)
Not wasting any time, Sudanese fulfill the USA's desire for an angry reaction
Sudanese mob attacks U.S. embassy after air strike

Thursday August 20 8:29 PM EDT

By Alfred Taban

KHARTOUM ( Reuters ) - An angry mob attacked the United States embassy in Khartoum early on Friday after a U.S.
military strike destroyed a pharmaceutical plant on the outskirts of the capital and wounded at least seven people.

Crowds of angry Sudanese attacked the embassy, which does not have resident U.S. diplomats, several hours after an
American air strike on the plant at an industrial area north of the center of the capital.

Sudanese authorities said the privately owned Ashifa factory manufactured children's medicines and malaria drugs and
denounced the raid as a crime.

Washington said the plant was involved in chemical weapons production and linked to Osama Bin Laden, the guerrilla
financier and mastermind who is blamed for bombings at U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania this month in which
more than 260 people were killed.

The U.S. military also launched strikes against targets used by Bin Laden and his followers in Afghanistan.

Army spokesman Abdel-Rahman al-Khatim told Sudanese television that five U.S. planes launched five missiles and
destroyed the pharmaceutical plant about 20 km ( 12 miles ) north of Khartoum's city center on Thursday night.

``There were no defenses as this was a civilian industrial area,'' he said.

U.S. officials have said the strikes were carried out with cruise missiles.

After the Nairobi and Tanzania bombings, a Sudanese employee at an American diplomatic residence said a U.S.
diplomat had told local staff the mission would be closed until further orders from Washington.

Sudanese television showed crowds pelting the U.S. embassy with stones, climbing over the gates and pulling down
the American flag.

One shot showed helmeted police making no attempt to prevent five or six men from climbing over the high gates and
into the compound, where they approached the building. It was not clear how much, if any, damage they did to the

Men stood atop the gates and incited the crowd through loudspeakers. They hammered at the gates and those inside
the compound appeared to be trying to force their way in to the building.

When the flag pole came down, they scampered through the compound, their arms outstretched victoriously.

``Down, down, USA,'' said the crowd in English, many addressing the camera. Men in military fatigues circulated in
the protest of at least 100 people in the street.

The post of United States ambassador has not been filled for months. Resident diplomats were withdrawn in February
1996 because of fears for their safety but diplomats visit from time to time to carry out the mission's functions.

Sudan had condemned the blast in the east Africa.

U.S. President Bill Clinton said he ordered the strikes to try to head off more attacks that were considered imminent.

Sudan television read the names of at least seven men who it said were wounded in the attack on the plant. At least
three appeared seriously wounded, one with a gaping head wound.

Shortly after the strike, angry crowds thronged to the bomb site in the Bahri. Riot police held back some of them who
raised their fists and shouted ``Allahu Akbar'' ( God is Greatest ) .

A worker at the factory said: ``Two aircraft came and dropped two big bombs.'' Flames shot out of the strike area and
smoke billowed into the sky.

Information Minister Ghazi Salahuddin said on television that the Ashifa plant was opened two years ago.

``We are quite composed. We are not frantic about it. A crime has been committed. We are going to pursue every
legitimate course to prove to the world that the United States has committed a crime,'' he said.

The streets of Khartoum were quiet after the attack.

Witnesses who drove through the streets could hear wedding parties in progress. Cigarette sellers were hawking to
pedestrians and petrol stations were open.

But a usually well-lit military headquarters was dark.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:56 - ID#28994)
6 pac
Hey,,, glad to hear from you.
Are you one of those french idiots we can't stand here in Florida.
WE love Canadians.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:58 - ID#30116)
A final thought for this evening....
I'm probably wrong on this, but here it goes. What if gold decides to react 'well' from now on, for a while anyhow, because the 'world' has changed. The U.S. is perceived as having a 'problem' ( WJC ) , currencies are routinely, if not daily, melting in front of the dollar juggernaut, and now the M.E. oil boyz are getting a might upset about the low prices they're getting for their hard pumped product from the desert sands. Yes, I think Cherokee's 'flux' is upon us. Then again, this can all be invalidated by the fact that tomorrow is options expiry. You know them option boyz like to burn the most number of people, that means shorts.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:59 - ID#78136)
Good Post. The Commander in Chief is a smoothy. No question
this is good for the polls. As a Canadian, I always thought he
was a hick, which he is, but a very dangerous man. I think
Starr has drugs, women, money, china technology sale for election
dollars, murder ( Vince Foster ) , etc. At some point, doesn't
the house judiciary committee share Starr's September report
with the White House and Slick slinks out on a resignation?
If this terrorist thing escalates is Clinton who you want.
I say they should draft Colin Powell. The effects of y2k
might require a military leader.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 22:59 - ID#287279)
Sudanese mob attacks U.S. embassy after air strike
By Alfred Taban

KHARTOUM ( Reuters ) - An angry mob attacked the United States embassy in Khartoum early on Friday after a U.S. military strike destroyed a pharmaceutical plant on the outskirts of the capital and wounded at least seven people.

Crowds of angry Sudanese attacked the embassy, which does not have resident U.S. diplomats, several hours after an American air strike on the plant at an industrial area north of the center of the capital.

Sudanese authorities said the privately owned Ashifa factory manufactured children's medicines and malaria drugs and denounced the raid as a crime.

Washington said the plant was involved in chemical weapons production and linked to Osama Bin Laden, the guerrilla financier and mastermind who is blamed for bombings at U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania this month in which more than 260 people were killed.

The U.S. military also launched strikes against targets used by Bin Laden and his followers in Afghanistan.

Army spokesman Abdel-Rahman al-Khatim told Sudanese television that five U.S. planes launched five missiles and destroyed the pharmaceutical plant about 20 km ( 12 miles ) north of Khartoum's city center on Thursday night.

``There were no defenses as this was a civilian industrial area,'' he said.

U.S. officials have said the strikes were carried out with cruise missiles.

After the Nairobi and Tanzania bombings, a Sudanese employee at an American diplomatic residence said a U.S. diplomat had told local staff the mission would be closed until further orders from Washington.

Sudanese television showed crowds pelting the U.S. embassy with stones, climbing over the gates and pulling down the American flag.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:05 - ID#384350)
World Gold Council (WGC) comments
"Gold demand set a record for the second quarter in India and Latin America, as it was double that of the depressed first quarter." Total demand in countries monitored by the World Gold Council was 634 tonnes, 9 per cent below the record second quarter demand in 1997, but over 50 per cent above first quarter levels.

WGC confirmed a turnaround in Southeast Asia, which became a net buyer of gold after heavy selling in the first quarter of the current year. South Korea, which again became a net buyer, registered a net offtake under of 14.5 tonnes in the second quarter.

"Demand for both jewellery and investment is growing around the world, and the outlook is for the recovery to continue over the remainder," said Milling-Stanley. Strong growth in the U.S. and Europe offset continued weakness in Japan. The U.S. demand was at record levels during the second quarter, and demand grew over 20 per cent year-on-year in both UK and France.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:07 - ID#240316)
Options Expiry -That's It!
The point at which the most options expire worthless is at about xau 65 according to "Max Pain" - see So that might explain the recent strength in the xau.

Old Soldier
(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:08 - ID#185274)
Oris 21:32 Practical counter-terrorism
Practical effectiveness of missile strikes is low. However, practical effectiveness and sustainability of terrorist organizations in general is also low. If this is a one shot political stunt ( as I believe ) , it will have little lasting effect. If it became U.S. policy to strike swiftly whenever citizens were hit by terrorists, terrorism would quickly drop to a fairly low background level.
The proposition that these terrorists need provocation or will become more active due to U.S. response is not supported by the evidence. Recall that a dose or two of high explosive was enough to greatly diminish Quadaffis terrorist symptoms.
I am completely cynical about the timing of the attack. Furthermore, Clinton has not previously shown any tendency toward or stomach for military operations. I think he has done a good thing for thoroughly despicable reasons.
You are exactly right that "only sudden attack by the coordinated group of trained military units can do the job. No bombings ( except atomic ) can achieve the goal of winning the fight with groups of individuals..." if we are talking about winning in a single campaign. Nevertheless, a policy of always striking back with overwhelming, if not decisive, force would also be effective.
Unfortunately, the U.S., clinton notwithstanding, has often had a severe problem with pushing military operations through to an entirely satisfactory conclusion.
I also greatly prefer steel guns to plastic.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:09 - ID#39857)
I'm going out on a limb here.
But gold could blast off and be $40 up by the end of next week.
LGB, re the DOW, if I may give an opinion. Probably be about
the same as it ends this week. Much the same answer as you
gave to Greenfields re Nikkei December 97. Wasnt it 17000.?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:12 - ID#335190)
More at idiot, then french. And I do not like Florida.

"We love Canadians" Now we have a problem. You have to understand all these European Canadians are HYPHENATED. Maybe these French idiot Canadians, that you can not stand, are not french. They could be other HYPHENATED European types ? Now, do you love ALL OTHER "Hyphenated" Canadians, and can't stand french ??

Take Care : ) : ) : )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:24 - ID#28994)
Six Pac
I am far to old to start a war......sorry I disturbed your temper.
But all I see is Quebec plates on cars,,,,,, none from Paris.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:28 - ID#384350)
Hedgehog- I liked your ( unintentional? ) play on words: Its time to "Prey"
Bulldog- You should know by now that sovereign debt is a scam.
Stop the NWO! Vive le Qubec libre!

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:30 - ID#432157)
Don't fall into the TRAP.

Negotiate is the operative WORD.

Canadians LOVE to negotiate ,then it MUST be approved by 7out of 10 Provinces and more than 50% of the voting POPULATION OF CANADA.

It will never fly no matter what the negotiating parties agree to or disagree about.

There ship has sunk CANADA will survive.

I promised myself that I would go to Rene Levesque funeral and cheer ,the same goes for BOUCHARD .God how I hate those lying Bastar-- and the lives they have destroyed would astound you.

Don't fall into there trap . ( IMO )

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:35 - ID#373403)
FOMC minutes June 30
Many of the members commented, however, that the already substantial risks surrounding the economic outlook had increased on both sides of their forecasts. On the downside, the greater risks focused on potential developments in Asia. Financial and economic conditions in Asia had deteriorated in recent months, and the members could not rule out the
possible emergence of even greater financial turmoil and economic weakness in that part of the world that could spill over to other countries including the United States. On the upside, in the absence of
strongly retarding effects from developments in Asia, persistent strength in domestic final demand might well add to inflationary pressures. Indeed, there were signs of modestly rising inflation in some recent measures of prices, though the rate of inflation was still relatively subdued.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:36 - ID#335190)
No war and no temper. A USofA citizen too old for war ? Where is your John Wayne spirit, the True Grit stuff ? No Paris plates eh! Hmmmmmm

Take Care

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:37 - ID#432157)
What is NWO ??????

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:38 - ID#384350)
How to Piss Off a Canadian 101
True Story. I met this Danish Girl at a hostel in Paris. For her there is a difference in the languages that English speakers from different countries speak: English ( UK ) , Scottish, Irish, Australian, and American ( N. American in her mind ) .

She met this Canadian guy and asked him the following ( innocently ) :
"Oh you're from Canada. Are you from the French part or the American part?"

Boy was he pissed off. He was one of those pinko, I hate Americans types.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:41 - ID#384350)
The NWO is for a one world-government. They are against people breaking away and forming their own sovereign nations.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:41 - ID#284255)
oleman . .
c98: Every politician who must run for re-election, who does not have the
cover that Spector has, will support The Slick One. They would have no
chance for re-election otherwise. All the press, except the handful ( Like
Novak ) who have the same cover Spector has will rally 'round. They will
believe Slick when he says those barefoot peasants were REALLY walking
around in a freshly bombed chemical weapons plant. Even men with advanced
scientific training, who know that those fokes woulda been dropping dead all
over the place if that really were what Bubba says it was, will plaster this
chat with repeated averrrals of the veracity of The Slick one. If it werent
so dangerous to the future safety of our children and grand children, it
would be a hilarious joke.

oleman . .
My sister called me Monday nite and said it looked like Ol' Slick was cooked
this time. I told her all he had to do was start bombing a Moslem country.
So help me, I did. But he took no chances. He bombed 2 of them. If the polls
keep on going against him, he'll bomb another moslem country next week. And
the week after. And the hatred will be there for our posterity a hundred
generations removed. To paraphrase a fellow Kentuckian, " I aint got no
quarrel with them Afghans".: )

oleman . .
I read with amusement the various posts hereabouts predicting the early exit
of the Slick one. Well, today ought to disabuse all of that notion..The
Klintoins will be there a long, long time. He'll kill all of the billion or
so adherents of Islam around the world, if that's what it takes. And it WILL
work. No Republican ( except Spector ) can afford to say anything against him
and be re-elected. Yup, Ol' Slick's got the biggest "get out of jail free"
card there is. Kill the enemies of Zion!!!!! bbml.


Seems like the Pres of the good old USA
Is showing how useful aggresion/domination is.

The guy with the biggest stick/gun always wins?

Seems to support the pro-gun lobby psycology sentiment???

Just what the world needs?

Who cares?

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:43 - ID#28994)
Gianni Dioro
95% of all Canadians live within 100 miles of the American border.
That makes it pretty hard to be a Canadian.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:47 - ID#227238)
Thanks for the stuff. 'Preciate it.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:47 - ID#432157)
Good Night All
This is one poor middle aged CANADIAN that will sleep soundly knowing there WILL be a CANADA for my grandchildren .


(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:48 - ID#257344)
OK, I watched Wag the Dog again
The opening line was 'why does the dog wag its tail? Because the dog is smarter than its tail!'

Is it really?

I feel extreme compassion for any military personnel at risk on this command of the President.

We all must have some degree of doubt about and upon the timing of this mission.

If we had thru our military and intelligence operations, the knowledge of these threats to America, why did we wait to act until now? Certainly, these agencies had the data and had informed their superiors a long time ago about these threats to our country. Why did we wait until now to strike at them? Was the acts of terrorism toward us timed to coincide with BC's problems? Most likely yes.

For me, as an American, I do not believe for one minute the timing of these actions. If this threat was identified, it should have been dealt with prior to the killing of innocent people, as I am sure the military would have done a long time ago.

No, to me, this is a travesty upon our country. Not because we did it, but because we were provoked to do it at the most opportune time for the political life of BC. This stinks to 'high heaven' as the saying goes.

I guess this is one of the many reasons that I trust in gold as a store of value and a perpetual medium of exchange.

I am deeply disturbed by these events. Not because of their justification necessarily, but because of the timing and certain retribution and escallation.

Perhaps I could say 'go gold' or maybe 'I don't care, I'm buying more', but I really do care and I wish I didn't have to 'go gold' or 'buy more'. We should not have to have these concerns as civilized people, but we do.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:48 - ID#404124)
We Watch This Interesting Week Together---Yes?

Old Soldier Dude........sarry bout that book I published last night.It was an article I found while searching for stuff about Jack Kemp,who wrote a letter to AG about Gold,you see,and thought it was interesting,given the time it was written,and the things we were experiencing up to that point.Now today!----doo--doo--doo--doo.......

( opening musical notes from " The Outer Limits " ) ...strange!But your right,and Grizz tuned me in about the double space phenonemon thing.OK? Take Care.


G-Nutz-that was funny man.


Go Gold---- Go Canada-----err...well...don't sell any Gold THIS month.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:49 - ID#263244)
My passport
If I were traveling in Africa, the Middle East, or S.E. Asia a U.S. passport would definately be a liability. In fact I've been giving a great deal of thought to how much of a liability it is to be a U.S. citizen. This is from an ex-Air Force Officer.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:51 - ID#373403)
FOMC June 30
Many members concluded that because there did not seem to be any urgency to tighten current policy for domestic reasons, given the likelihood that inflation would remain subdued for a while, important weight should be given to potential reactions abroad. A number of these members emphasized, however, that they continued to see a high probability that some tightening of monetary policy would be needed later to curb rising
inflationary pressures. Accordingly, they believed that the Committee should take advantage of any early opportunity to tighten policy in order to improve the prospects of containing inflation and prolonging the economic expansion. One member was persuaded, however, that such a policy move should be implemented at this meeting in order to avert the need for a stronger and probably more disruptive policy adjustment that would be needed later to head off rising inflation.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:54 - ID#404124)

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:56 - ID#284255)
From Year2000

This is my fifth and final column for the Chicago Brainstorm
conference and consists of several different stories and

The first is from William Ulrich of Triaxsys Research. He
related that when he was in Europe a businessman told him
that many European businessmen thought the whole year 2000
problem had been contrived in America as a management
exercise! Just one more interesting reason to ignore the
problem while the clock ticks.

He had another story to tell about his neighbor, a
chiropractor in a clinic with several other chiropractors.
The chiropractor knew William was working with the year 2000
problem and asked him a question about the computers he and
his fellow chiropractors were planning to buy for their
office. The firm was getting a new LAN, and planned on
spending about $80,000. Five vendors were bidding on the
package. The chiropractor wondered if there was anything he
should check about the new computers and the year 2000
problem. William told him to ask each vendor specifically
if their systems were guaranteed not to have a Y2k problem.
The chiropractor did and found that instead of 5 vendors,
he now only had to deal with 2. Three vendors of brand new
equipment in early 1998 could not certify an $80,000 package
would make the millennium transition just over a year away!
Without William's input the question wouldn't have been
asked. How many others in purchasing are making the
assumption that if it is new there probably isn't any
Leslie Schelp, head of the Y2K effort at Tandem Computers
made several very interesting points during her lunch talk at
the conference. The first was a comment she made about the
imminent adoption of the Euro. She told us that when she
was talking to members of the European Parliament who were
in Cupertino to discuss the Euro, she asked them how many
year 2000 technical advisors had they consulted when they
made the time table for adoption. They looked around
uncomfortably and admitted that not a single technical
person had been asked. "Then you have really no idea how
this will impact Y2K?" she asked them. They disagreed and
told her that the adoption of the Euro wouldn't have any
impact on Y2k because they made that a condition of its
adoption. I told her that Europe had a long history of
kings and a tradition of rule by divine right that seemed
to be inherited by their descendents. She told me that
there were executive orders coming out of Washington with
almost identical wording. If changing to the Euro does
become a more expensive proposition than the year 2000, or
if it throws year 2000 schedules off, about all we will be
able to say is, "I told you so." What Leslie would like to
see here in the United States is big business helping to
lead the government on this issue so we don't end up in a
bureaucratic quagmire where software standards are decided
by committee.
Latest Swing chart

Tick chart
Note how the tick seems to cycle in waves.
Now the tick seems to have finished its positive wave.

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:58 - ID#257344)
gov curiosity
Sharefin- a little while ago you posted something about your new site and the curious fact about the US gov being one of the first to visit. Well, last Oct we set up a couple of internet sites and guess who was the first to visit? Yup, you got it. Email me at

(Thu Aug 20 1998 23:58 - ID#373403)
FOMC June 30 (last and most cryptic quote)Velocity is slowing?
They took note of a staff projection that indicated that, given the Committee's expectations for the performance of the economy and prices and assuming no major changes in interest rates, growth of M2 and M3 probably would exceed the current ranges in 1998 and decline to a little below the upper end of those ranges in 1999. Both M2 and M3 had grown unusually quickly relative to spending in the first half of the year. The staff analysis suggested that some of the forces that might have been responsible for this decline in velocity would abate, and the projections
anticipated that the velocity of M2 would be roughly in line with historical experience prior to the early 1990s, as it had been, on balance, for several years.