Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:04 - ID#404124)
That should be " phenomenon "--any event, circumstance, or experience that is apparent to the senses and that can be scientifically described or appraised, as an eclipse ( RJ? ) 2 in Kantian philosophy, a thing as it appears in perception as distinguished from the thing as it is in itself independent of sense experience: distinguished from NOUMENON 3 any extremely unusual or extraordinary thing or occurrence 4 [Colloq.] a person with an extraordinary quality, aptitude, etc.; prodigy

And thats that...............except---I couldn't find URL for article--so posted whole thingy.


Oh!....LGB?----what planet are ya posting from now?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:05 - ID#284255)
For those that need?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:10 - ID#402131)
Oris and other gun nuts
I have done business with this outfit and they are honest.
You can buy 1000 rounds of 9mm for $110 and magazines and such for about any weapon in the world. What good is gold if you can't hold on to it?

Old Soldier
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:12 - ID#185274)
HepMeMoney 23:48 Soldiers not joined at the hip
That was Retired Soldier who commented on your long post. Though we are frequently confused, I assure you we are entirely different individuals. Retired Soldier is in Alaska and soon enroute to Germany. I am in the Atlanta, Georgia, USA area and firmly ensconced to ride out Y2K.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:13 - ID#238422)
Old Soldier
Thank you for your comments.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:15 - ID#238422)
Earl, you are welcome.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:17 - ID#384350)
LSteve - Protection against Backlash
You may wish to look into a camouflage passport to protect yourself if traveling in countries that have animosities towards the US. A camouflage passport is an unofficial passport issued in the name of some country that used to exist like Rhodesia, British Honduras etc. It is used for protection against backlash, especially against Americans. Remember that guy who got thrown off the Achille Lauro? They are not to be used for traveling across borders. First of all they most likely wouldn't work. Second of all, it would attract undue attention. Also, an official 2nd passport wouldn't be a bad idea for those who can manage it. Jewish folk can usually obtain an Israeli passport. Those who have a grandparent born in Ireland can obtain an Irish ( EU ) passport. Others can be had through investment or residency in a given country. A camouflage passport costs around $400 from these guys.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:22 - ID#252150)
Cretin & Clitton@Fellow hackers on the golf course & totally incompetent off
the golf course in their respective roles as leaders of our Countries. They are each in the process of figuritively 4 putting the 18th green &
screwing up our Countries beyond redemption.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:22 - ID#401460)

Let's see 10,000 shares x $0.01 = $100
and 100,000 shares x $0.01 = $1000


(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:23 - ID#238422)
Rack, thanks for your info.
By the way, at one time I run into 9 mm Luger GECO
( Dynamit Nobel ) ammo. Used their 12 gauge slugs before,
but never tried pistol or rifle ammo...
Amazingly this German ammo is cheaper than UMC ( Remington )
but seems to be hotter and much more accurate.
Good for competion shooting. If you have a chance, try it.

Old Soldier
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:29 - ID#185274)
Oris, you the man! (highly complimentary American slang)
Oris, I always appreciate your comments and questions. You are a real trooper. I'm sure in other times and places I would have been proud to share a foxhole ( fighting position ) with you. Keep up the fire!!! Now I am quiting my post feeling properly relieved by you.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:38 - ID#225236)
BIN LADIN's CNN interview. Compare it with Clinton's speech. Which of the two has a brain?

BIN LADIN: After the collapse of the Soviet Union in which the US has no mentionable role, but rather the credit goes to God, Praise and Glory be to Him, and the Mujahidin in Afghanistan, this collapse made the US more haughty and arrogant and it has started to look at itself as a Master of this world and established what it calls the new world order. It wanted to delude people that it can do whatever it wants, but it can't do this. It leveled against me and others as many accusations as it desired and wished. It is these ( accusations ) that you mentioned. The US today as a result of the arrogant atmosphere has set a double standard, calling whoever goes against its injustice a terrorist. It wants to occupy our countries, steal our resources, impose on us agents to rule us based not on what God has revealed and wants us to agree on all these. If we refuse to do so, it will say you are terrorists. With a simple look at the US behaviors, we find that it judges the behavior of the poor Palestinian children whose country was occupied: if they throw stones against the Israeli occupation, it says they are terrorists whereas when the Israeli pilots bombed the United Nations building in Qana, Lebanon while was full of children and women, the US stopped any plan to condemn Israel. At the time that they condemn any Muslim who calls for his right, they receive the highest top official of the Irish Republican Army ( Gerry Adams ) at the White House as a political leader , while woe, all woe is the Muslims if they cry out for their rights. Wherever we look, we find the US as the leader of terrorism and crime in the world. The US does not consider it a terrorist act to throw atomic bombs at nations thousands of miles away, when it would not be possible for those bombs to hit military troops only. These bombs were rather thrown at entire nations, including women, children and elderly people and up to this day the traces of those bombs remain in Japan. The US does not consider it terrorism when hundreds of thousands of our sons and brothers in Iraq died for lack of food or medicine. So, there is no base for what the US says and this saying does not affect us, because we, by the grace of God, are dependent on Him, Praise and Glory be to Him, getting help from Him against the US. As for the last part of your question, we are fulfilling a duty which God, Praise and Glory be to Him, decreed for us. We look upon those heroes, those men who undertook to kill the American occupiers in Riyadh and Khobar ( Dhahran ) . We describe those as heroes and describe them as men. They have pulled down the disgrace and submissiveness off the forehead of their nation. We ask Allah, Praise and Glory be to Him, to accept them as martyrs.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:38 - ID#402131)
Good morning.
Ammo made in Europe is hotter than the stuff made in the USA. I have a
Browing Hi-Power in 9mm and the information package states that it is OK to use the oversea's stuff. I don't remember the velocity difference but I think it was over 200 FPS- thats a lot of extra foot pounds, esp.
in what I consider a marginal caliber. If you use the +P+ stuff its right up there with the .45 - .357 mag and the .44 mag. in one shot stopping power.
Griz-I couldn't find that article on 12 ga.buckshot

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:41 - ID#238422)
Old Soldier
Good night, sir, and thanks again. It is always the great
pleasure to talk to pro like yourself. Please post from
time to time, don't sit in the foxhole ( smile ) ...

Gloomy Gus
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:45 - ID#428207)
Declaration of WAR on 2 Sovereign States in 1 hour---Good Going Herr Klitton!!!
Halleluia!! Kiss my ass and drop the bomb. It's gonna get a lot hotter before it cools down. Get ANOTHER passport. Hide the flag. Sheeit. Time to abandon the US Ship of State might join Disney in S's gonna get nasty.........No bright stars on the horizon, looks like Palladium is going to join Ag & Au in the pits.

Marching off to war...........

Are we having fun yet???

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:51 - ID#384350)
Israel's use of Biological Weapons
Four people have been killed and 25 injured in a series of unreported accidents at a top secret laboratory near Tel Aviv that reportedly houses Israel's biological and chemical weapons programmes, the Maariv newspaper reported Wednesday.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:54 - ID#17077)
XAU Call Options Purchase... Gold Mining Stocks About to Shine???
Although several K-1 posters and Steve Kaplan himself have voiced the opinion that a huge purchase of XAU calls is a "bearish" sign for the XAU, I would humbly suggest they are mistaken for several key reasons:

1 ) Based upon my many years experience playing the options market, the players that stand the most chance of success are the ones that open a position versus those that climb on board an existent heavy volume position. In other words, rewards arrive to those investors who have the courage of their convictions and sense a developing trend BEFORE the crowd who usually get on board too late. With options, timing is everything and getting on board too late means holding a strike price that is too far away from the stock's realized price upon expiry day.

2 ) Although the common perception in the options market is that the pros ( or big players ) write the options while the little guys play them, yesterday's huge purchase of XAU calls is clearly a pro action ( and I would wager even further is an insider action ) . Now, admittedly it would take big players to write the calls. So, essentially, I would guess that the XAU call position is a notable square-off between either major XAU shareholders or major XAU naked short speculators versus another major long speculator.

If the long speculator turns out to be a George Soros-type or a proxy acting on behalf of someone like that, then there is every reason to believe that the call buyer is the one "in the know.." NOT the writers of the calls.

Unfortunately, Kaplan often errs in automatically assuming that all commerical players ( or the options writers ) are always right. Gold's past performance over the last two years has proven to be a case of commercials ( WRONG ) and Speculators ( RIGHT ) .

If a major speculator/consortium with tremendous purchasing power has turned into a goldbug overnight, then potentially we might be ready to witness a pleasant little in which the specs lead the way in the establishment of an XAU Bull rather than the commercials. I believe we are about to witness a major long gold spec action ( What an interesting coincidence that 100,000 ounces of COMEX gold left the inventory the other day?? ) .

As I theorized often in the past, I believe that the establishment of the Gold Bull will NOT initially be recognized by most major goldbugs. Rather, it will surprise them with its sudden unexpected force.

In such a scenario, then one would expect that many commercials or professionals will NOT reap the full benefit of the incipient Gold Bull.

In other words, they may be hedging their bets via antithetical positions: long the physical gold and short the gold mining equities...a hedge that could backfire if both the physical and XAU blast off together with the same powerful force. Yet, even if such a hedge backfires, ultimately, on a net basis, I would expect the XAU companies will end up winners.



(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:55 - ID#404124)
Old Soldiers
Never die-----they just fade away.

My Apologies to you both....... I don't follow this Gold menageatrois or this board much these days.The outcome is inevitable........the timing is best.

"How to Die" By-------------SIEGFRIED SASSOON --For You Both--Enjoy.

Dark clouds are smouldering into red

While down the craters morning burns.

The dying soldier shifts his head

To watch the glory that returns;

He lifts his fingers toward the skies

Where holy brightness breaks in flame;

Radiance reflected in his eyes,

And on his lips a whispered name.

You'd think, to hear some people talk,

That lads go West with sobs and curses,

And sullen faces white as chalk,

Hankering for wreaths and tombs and hearses.

But they've been taught the way to do it

Like Christian soldiers; not with haste

And shuddering groans; but passing through it

With due regard for decent taste.

Take Care.

Who Cares?__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 00:58 - ID#242328)
Clinton Lip-Synched the Speech

You guys always seem to miss a lot of what goes on in the Net

Several posters have reported that Clinton can clearlyi be seen
lip-synching the speech where he regreted lying. : ) Un-freeking
believable. : )

The rumor is that he rehearsed it for three hours.

He's been baking for six years, but by Jove, I think this
clown is finally done.

And I don't think he's going with a serious fight. : )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:06 - ID#252150)
Wow!@That interview of Bin Ladin just reminded me of what a despicable,
arrogant, corrupt gov't you guys have. I wonder how many Americans have any idea at all of the travesties & injustices that their gov't has committed against innocent people. Luckily for the USG, very few because most of their brains have been turned to mush by the USG/media propaganda/bs that they are bombarded with daily.

Noam Chomsky called the Gulf War, the most cowardly war in history. I don't think that he would rank todays attacks very high in the annals of valor.

The poor Arabs pray several times a day for help from Allah. He has'nt responded for 100s of years, but you have to admire their faith & persistence. It seems that God only listens to the Nation with the most powerful military. Curious is'nt it.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:24 - ID#24135)
For The BUG..
My son already answered your question to me via
e-mail .. He pointed out that RSA mines generally
bottomed out months ago .. about the start of the
1998.. US mines have only JUST cleared lows ..
One would expect reactions in line with what is
You are right about costs .. Mines like Homestake
make no money and in my view have bleak prospects..
But they are rallying.
Rsa mines are making a bundle... However..
Many RSA mines are in wave 5 of an Elliott sequence
that began in 1996. The RSA mines are correcting from
highs hit earlier in the sequence and I THINK that the
wave may be ending.
I have one mine .. randfontein .. ( hard to get the
ADRs ) that I KNOW is earning 4 rands a share at
present exchage rates/gold prices .. YET it has fallen
from a high of 17 to about 10.5 rands.. NO real
reason other than ( 1 ) wave 3 and 5 will do that to you
AND ( 2 ) most mining analysts are incompetant.
A play that I have always liked .. would be take
puts on a mine like Homestake ( when it establishes some
kind of a vulnerable looking high ) to cover yourself
on purchases of RSA mines. But not now .. it looks to
have broken out of trend lines.
DDeeps is OK and easy to buy .. But Harmony is my
own personal choice at currect relative prices. It
is brilliantly managed and does everything right.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:29 - ID#225236)
James: It seems that God only listens to the Nation with the most powerful military.
It may seem that way! I do think however that the US enemies are much smarter than the CNN-fed mush brains and they mostly wait for a proper opportunity.

Any student of history knows that once you hear the talk of a country leaders about its right, duty, or desire to lead, control, or bully the whole world, this country is finished. This is the the fatal, terminal dose of stupidy that signals that the end is near. After all, if you are the "leader of the universe" you control rules of nature, economy, physics, don't you?

Joe sixpacks believe the above stories because the stupid illusions of being the "number one" are the only pleasures they have in their overwise miserable lives. After all, seeing your government murder some foreigners makes you happy that it only robbed you.

But guess what!!! The day comes when the master of the universe can no longer deliver the promised free beer. That is when the fun begins. Joe sixpacks suddenly realize that there are, after all, rules that everybody has to follow. This sudden realization reverses the blind believes in omnipotence of government. Blind belief in government omnipotence gets replaced with blind belief in its impotence. Say good-buy to dreams of having a yacht for free, say hello to mortal combat with the guy-next-door over who will eat the last rat on the block. Enjoy!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:42 - ID#252150)
Petronius@You're right. When they can't have beer & pizza with their sit-coms
then all hell will break loose.

To bed to dream of truth & justice & peace & beer & pizza for all.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:44 - ID#220325)
Americans bought Alaska, how about buying Quebec???
An excellent opportunity presents itself only once in a hundred years. A recent study showed that the resources in Quebec alone were worth $100,000 ( 1997 ) dollars Canadian for every man, woman and child. If America were to buy that province every Canadian family of four including Quebecer's would receive $400,000. Which Canadian would refuse that?

For the Americans you get all the land, resources including water and power for .50 cents on the dollar. What more could you ask for?

The only stipulation is that you take over Quebec's debt. The rest of Canada would prefer this as the separatists don't want it and, according to the former premier of the province, will walk away from it. This would leave the rest of Canada burdened with their obligations.

Please HURRY, this bargain may not last for as soon as they leave Canada they will be debt free.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:46 - ID#153102)
@Unilateral Exercise of Power
USG would not hesitate to launch a cruise missle from the Red Sea onto My Hometown, USA if the citizens there were overtly rebellious and USG decided a cruise missle strike was militarily indicated.

The notion that USG cannot hire enough loyal mercenaries to employ with devastating effect its vastly superior technological advantages in armament, surveillance, and command and control, even against My Hometown, USA, is absurd. Nor is there any indication My Hometown, USA is even inclined to resist USG. More than half of the typical My Hometown, USA is receiving credits from the USG credit account, directly or through their fictitious "State of" government.

There is only one weak leg supporting the Greenback Empire, and that is the Greenback itself.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:48 - ID#183109)
World gold demand recovers in second quarter
Wednesday, August 19 1998

from E-data

Global gold demand recovered sharply in the three months ended June 30 from the depressed conditions of the first quarter of the year, the World Gold Council said on Wednesday.

The council's market analysis manager George Milling-Stanley said although the Asian economic crisis kept demand below normal levels in several major consuming countries, total demand for the quarter at 634 tonnes was only nine percent below the record second quarter demand for last year, but more than 50 percent up on the first three months of this year.

"Jewellery demand was the cornerstone of the recovery, while solid growth in investment, especially in the industrialised countries also made a significant contribution.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 01:57 - ID#257151)
A black day.....

Fancy giving money to the Government!...Ten to one theyll start another war.
A P Herbert.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:07 - ID#153102)
Nobody gives money to government. Nobody in their right mind, that is.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:09 - ID#257151)
you pay no taxes?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:13 - ID#219363)
The nation of Islam has a culture that dates back thousands of years. She consists of no less than 40 countries, covers an area greater than China, and has 618,000,000 people, a population three times that of the United States, half that of China. She extends across the center of the world. To the English speaking peoples - the nation of Islam might as well be Venus, or Jupiter. There is no understanding of her people, her politics, traditions, ethics, economy, or religion.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:14 - ID#32078)
A missile attack by US forces upon a US city would create a groundswell of military uprising never seen in this nation before. I say this because of the hundreds, maybe thousands, of patriot warriors that I personally know who would not stand for it, period, even if it were your town, and not theirs. Washington would be overrun unless they were physically and militarily restrained, and the present day military would quickly recognize that the leadership giving such an order was not to be followed. Whoever made such an order would get lynched or impeached.

Don't be so damn pessimistic. Military citizens know they are supposed to follow orders but there are limits. Retired military soldiers receive US checks but they don't come from clinton. They come from a legitimate government. If there isn't enough money, they will print more long before they shoot US citizens en masse. Therefore you have inflation of the currency. Buy gold when they do.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:18 - ID#24135)
Big Joe says its Bullsh!t
To all Clinton Fans..
Amused to hear that Joe Biden is backing the
president to the hilt.
That's like having the unqualified support of the
village idiot.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:23 - ID#153102)
Ha ! Everything is taxed here, I think. People here are Tax Numb and Tax Dumb from intimidation.

How can I have a tax debt to a state government when I have no tax bill for which the tender is gold and silver coin ?

I've posted to a site before which speaks for itself regarding the federal.

American law on taxes is probably much different foundationally than the law in one of the Queen's countries. Though superficially probably identical.

Our problem here really does resolve to too much power of attorney.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:23 - ID#284255)
Reverse Speech

Zippergate cartoons


(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:23 - ID#257151)
Your "There is no understanding of her people, her politics, traditions, ethics, economy, or religion" is, I suspect, true in the US, and less true anywhere else on the earth. But, I predict, you're going to want to know more about Islam very soon. The differences between Islam and Christianity are far less that their similarities. Both give me the willies, and here we are; two monotheistic ideologies are once again facing off, time for all good blasphemous anarchistics to run to the shelters.

Got crusades?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:24 - ID#190411)
You must be talking about
Joe "the plagiariser" Biden, top in his law class; well at least second from the bottom.
JD, sorry; is he a pal of yours?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:35 - ID#201109)
free speech
is worth what you pay for it. i am always amazed that people

such as noam chomsky and bin laden are lionized by internet america haters, most of them americans. strange and twisted bedfellows all. how conveniently they forget the rape of kuwait or the carnage of nairobi. how quick to accuse others of starving children in iraq when it is husseyn himself who continues to do it for his own purposes. let the germans and others sit on their asses and sell weapons and chemicals to the terrorists while the serbs continue their holy war against muslims. "well we don't meddle, we believe in sovereignty and making a mark where we can." indeed!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:35 - ID#219363)
Definitely not a "nation" that I want to provoke, that's for sure. I think we in the US tend to see the individual countries, but not see the union, and to see political seperations where there really are none. Also, as stated, I think we have little understanding of "that part of the world" ( like it had just been discovered or something ) . I've been doing a fair amount of research here lately trying to catch up where History 101 left off, but it takes time, the culture has a lot of depth, and learning from books is never as good as exposure to the source.

One note, however - the early reports of US ignorance of the rest of the world have been vastly over-stated.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:37 - ID#190411)
Joe the coalminer.
Who are the dildoes that vote for that clown?
Gee, you'd think that the fool would have been laughed out of his home state, after he lifted a major speach from the Labour party head ( I don't recall who that was ) .
I suppose that slimeballs such as Joe Biden would almost have to support the Commander In Heat.
Good night gentlemen.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:40 - ID#153102)
You confuse pessimism and realism. I know too much history.

If just some of the people who think they are patriots would invest time learning that our problem resolves to too much power of attorney, this government would change or have serious problems of legal legitimacy.

I already said the paper is the weak leg.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:50 - ID#219363)
Not looking that good tonight.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 02:59 - ID#24135)
Big Joe Biden..
Erle ..
plagerized a speech of Neil Kinnock's ..
who was an even bigger idiot.. The crime
was immediately apparent .. Kinnock's
speeches can be recognized anywhere ..
they consist of a mass of unrelated words
strung together in such a way that they
make no sense whatever.. Many capital
letters were sometimes used .. er wait
a minute .. that remonds me of someone.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:19 - ID#316193)
John Crudele About the Fed's Repo This Week (And Other Sordid Tales)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:19 - ID#387288)
WGC reliable?
Some questions after reading today's postings.

Is the World Gold Council really all that reliable? Aren't they cheerleaders for gold?

Drop bombs anywhere east of Jerusalem or south of the Mediterranean and you will raise the world's average level of sanity. Those people are freakin nuts over there. Why Jews would want to move into that neighborhood is beyond me. Much as I distrust and despise the character that is the Pres of the US, there's no harm done by knocking around a few
psychopathic mullahs. Maybe next time these dimwits will park the truck where it counts--in front of the White House during a cabinet meeting. Newt for Prez. Then watch the leftwingers start foaming at the mouth.

Why don't sane Canadians want the snotty kid next door in Quebec to leave? they want to speak French? let them speak French. When their economy tanks they will be much more contrite and much friendlier. I'm waiting for Canada to break up so I can join my sister and brother-in-law in the Republic of Alberta where truth, justice and the American way and English only will prevail.

Wouldn't it be better to prepare for the y2k meltdown by forming neighborhood sized groups/militias ( in the true meaning of the word ) to work through contingencies? This lone wolf shack-in-the-woods I'll shoot ifn you takes nuther step this here way. Don't care dat you'n the missus an yer tree kids are dyin'.Ain't gonna git nona my vittles--stuff won't work unless you are cold-hearted and a little looney. In which case, I hope your freeze-dried food all gets eaten by racoons.
We're all going to be in this together. Even these paranoid misanthropes who can't wait for the blessed day when they can actually be in position to blow somebody away in good conscience.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:23 - ID#24135)
To all ..
I think there may be parallels between Russia and
Turkey .. two proud countries .. with a military
heritage .. a well educated Urban population.. a history
of political involvement and corruption in their daily
life .. both without an established democratic tradition
.. both suffered badly in wars .. people are likeable
.. both drink vodka ( turks drink raki too ) .
In 1973 there were 13 turkish lira to the dollar.
Today there are 276,580 to the dollar.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:30 - ID#316193)
Friday's "Hot Topics" From Michael Reagan

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:42 - ID#413109)
Old Soldier
Please eamil me details of this part of your post-------
"I am in the
Atlanta, Georgia, USA area and firmly ensconced to ride out Y2K. "

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:46 - ID#248170)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:52 - ID#411259)
..... JD... I think .....

Indeedy O so, Kinnock is a lump
Why Joey should steal from him
Is a mystery beyond compare
Like the time Teddy Kennedy
Plagiarized some damn thing or other
In a rather not so honorable manner
And may have perhaps perchance
Claimed other's words as his own

This is a crime, this stealing of a man's words
Words are all we leave behind us, when onward we go
No photograph, no video tape, no audio recording
Can but pale compare to the word on the page
For it is only here that the mind of the writer
Communicates directly with the mind of the reader

No lens, or distortion stands between the two
And communication is as complete and intimate
As any form of human understanding short of sex

The writer puts his thoughts on page
Differently than he may think the same in his head
The word forces free thought into narrow fine focus
And puts voice and visage to faceless ideas

This narrow beam, funneled through inadequate symbols
Ignites neurons and fires synapses in the readers mind
From years before, forgotten till now, but now she remembers
When she was ten and the top scoop of her triple topper ice cream cone
Fell from its proper perch high atop the lower Rocky Road
And went, SPLAT! Right on the top of her bare foot
Fine white cream and chips of chocolate chunks
Melt and squish between her toes.. and it is summer
And the sun is bright and the grass is green
And life is sweet enough to taste

The writer knows nothing of this time misted memory in his readers mind
But the focus of thought to words, is unfurled again, accepted and expanded
Into sights and sounds and smells and feelings of ice cream between your toes.

I seem to have gone off subject a bit, what was this post about?

Oh yeah, Kinnock is a lump.

I want those words, at least, to survive.

Righty O

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:55 - ID#219363)
American Ignorance
I just went out to get something to eat, so, of course I had to go to the 7-11, it being 3:30 in the AM here. Picked up something bad for me, and something to drink, equally bad. On my way there I was running "American Ignorance" through my head trying to figure out why it is that we, the average United States citizen, don't seem to know that much about different areas of the world. Anyway, I walked into the 7-11 and picked up my goodies, took them to the counter, and started talking with the poor lady who has to stand there all night. She's about as typical as an American can get I suppose. So I asked her -

"Hear about those missiles we launched ?", I asked.

"Yeah", she said.

"What did you think of all that ?", I asked.

"I don't know", she said.

Now, when she said, "I don't know", you just had to be there. She wasn't really saying that at all - what she was saying, at least with the look on her face, was, "Where the hell is the Sudan ? And what do I care ?". She was obviously worried that someone she knows might end up walking in full combat gear across some sand dune somewhere, and I'm sure she knows plenty of folks in the military. She could have also been worried that "those people" might somehow strike back in vengence, I'm sure she knows they have the will to do it.

Why does the average American know so little about the rest of the world ? Well, it obviously has nothing to do with intelligence, we are a witty bunch as a rule. We aren't especially un-wise, so that can't be it. Contrary to what many Europeans may think, we do as a rule get a great education, though little is taught about the cultures of the world. So why don't we know about other cultures ? I think it's that we just don't care to know, as a rule. I mean think about it. Think about where on the planet America is. We're way the hell over in the middle of the ocean, worlds apart from the rest of humanity, and we just don't care. We are, at heart, isolationists.

Another reason I believe we don't have a deep understanding of the rest of the earth's cultures is that we never owned any of it. What I mean by that is - most of the European nations at one time or another had very deep interests in Africa, Asia, the Americas, Australia. Australia has a long history with Europe, and Europe with most of the world. Obviously the European nations are going to have a deep understanding of Africa, they friggin owned most of it at one time! Same goes for South America, India, and they have a history of trade with the orient. America never had all that. Our "route to the world" until somewhat recently in history, has been through Europe. Even now, our "route to the orient" is through oriental Americans! Why would your average American care to learn about the history of Japan ? of India ? of Egypt ?

I suspect that very few Americans have any desire to learn about the rest of the world unless they are A ) on vacation, B ) in the military, C ) in foreign politics, or D ) in business. I also suspect that the average European was the same way a few hundred years ago before they colonized the world, and started depending on it for trade. So, in summary, I think my answer to the question of "Why are Americans so ignorant of foreign cultures and politics" is the same as my answer to "Why are Americans so ignorant about the third moon from Zemo, second planet from Alpha-Prime", the answer being, who cares.

To me, a better question to ask than

Why don't Americans know more about the cultures of the world ?

would be -

Why does the world care that we do or we don't ?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 03:59 - ID#316193)
Financial Derivatives Are Beginning to be Uncovered With Russia's Bank Problems

(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:01 - ID#411259)
..... Envy .....

Excellent post


(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:07 - ID#255284)
like an angry child with a gun,
I aint gonna speak for the rest of the world, crsus! I can hardly speak for myself, but, to answer your "Why does the world care that we do or we don't ?" it's because you think the world is yours to do as you please. You know, "decide to invade here, but not there." Funny thing. The rest of the world doesn't agree with you and would rather you pursue hapiness on your own turf.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:16 - ID#411259)
..... I Think .....

We just had an earthquake in So Cal
Or perhaps the quake was just mine own


(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:29 - ID#219363)
I think you would find that most Americans don't want to have their children roaming the earth in search of confrontation any more than you want us to be out doing it. Even reading the "American" posts on this forum, it should be pretty obvious that most of "us" are very discouraged by the news that we are, once again, getting involved in something that none of think we have any business getting involved in. The lady I mentioned from the 7-11 store obviously didn't want anything to do with it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:35 - ID#252127)

Big drop in Comex gold stock yesterday, but no news relative to from where, ( registered or eligible ) . Shorts must be concerned, but there hasn't been much gold to cover their positions, but the song plays on.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:43 - ID#411259)
..... How people react to earthquakes in So Cal .....

Los Angeles: Again?
Santa Monica: Huh?
Redondo Beach: Hell I see more shaking than that when Pamela Lee runs by.
Beverly Hills: Honey Will you call security???
Long Beach: Aint nothin but a shake thang BAYbay
Malibu: Not there, finally slipped into the ocean.
Compton: You better give me your watch before I shake your brain mother..
Hollywood: Ill pay you $700K now to option the story, with points on the gross.
West Hollywood: Isnt thot the wooorst thing Eveehr?
Newport Beach: Nothing but the sound of car alarms
Huntington Beach: Dude. your wetsuit, Lets go catch the tidal wave, bro!
Anaheim: I think the Materhorn fell and crushed Tinkerbell
Cal Tech: This was a magnitude blah blah bleet bleet blah blah
Southpark: Oh my God They killed Kenny you bastards.
East LA: Hey man, turn down the bass man, you got the GROUND shakin, man!
West LA: Its OK if the lights go out hon, Ive got my cellular. We better eat the Hagen Daze though.
Irvine: We dont have earthquakes here, they passed an ordinance.

There are many more cities, but this particular thread has run its course.
The TV says nothing of an earthquake. It must have be a personal one.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:49 - ID#335379)
Hello all: I would not like to be to quick to judge these last few events......
Bin Ladin's comments and goals seem no less materialistic than the USA's.
To claim right from God to concour for ones own materialistic desires seems a formula for disaster. No matter if your god be the almighty dollar or "allah".
If one is for God then he must be for good.
The US needs to stop interfearing in others business. The US should barter for that which it desires of others, not concour and kill for it. But the same must be true for all nations. Many nations envy US, our wealth creation and use our technoligy against us. Some nations want to be left alone, but those that chose commerce do so with desires of thier own. They also desire the wealth brought to them through US inovation and
multiplistic uses for thier resorces.
To resort to murderousness will only crumble what is trying to be built. I am not condoning US action, it will be yet to see if indeed there was right to defend. Yes Klint may have bennafitted, but consider now what dialouge must take place to heal the US/Bin Ladin rift. Will Bin and US meet? Talk?
Or will they both proclaim Jihad ( spelling ) ? Holy war, Who is your God? $?, a warrior?, gold?, or one who turns the other cheek?
"If a man says he loves God and hates his brother, the man is a liar and does not have God's love within himself."


(Fri Aug 21 1998 04:52 - ID#39857)
Got Gold? No! Better get down to the graveyard, ala Roy Buchanan.
Friday 21 August, 1998 ( 6:25pm AEST )

Gangs of grave robbers are looting Chinese graves in two cities on the Indonesian island of Java.
The Jakarta Post quotes local officials as saying the gangs armed with knives, crowbars and sickles are attacking cemeteries in the central Javanese cities of Pekalongan and Surakarta.
It says weeping relatives and graveyard guardians were powerless to
stop the gangs who often attack in broad-daylight.
The local people say the gang members are strangers to the cities and so far their robbing spree, which started a month ago, has gone
unchecked by authorities.
The Post quoted cemetery officials as saying they had counted 268
graves dug up in the two cities by the looters, who arrived in groups of 10 armed with saws, crowbars and digging tools at all times of day and night.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:19 - ID#237164)
Are our banks any better at derivatives ?
About derivatives and banks ...

"The alternative would have been to let the banks fall,
which would have led to the whole house of cards falling."

Financial shock waves buffeting


(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:23 - ID#219363)
Asia and Europe both down, far in fact. Hong Kong down 3 percent. The US markets ain't gonna like this, not one bit. Should be an interesting day today I suppose. Maybe the DOW will go up a few hundred points.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:26 - ID#288295)
COMEX stocks breakdown


787,048 Registered ( -147,502 )
109,866 Elligible ( +7,140 )
896,914 Total


41,411,647 Registered
36,809,519 Elligible ( +15,299 )
78,221,166 Total

Looks like there is still some funny business with the Gold Registered vs. Elligibles - which have been static now, as a couple hundred thousand ounces have been removed from the Registered category.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:29 - ID#257148)
It's an ill wind....
The Big Bad Wolf is outside Mr Piggy Wiggy's house "I'll huff, and I'll puff, till I blow your house down."

"If the contracts are not honored, though, Western banks would be stuck with the losses."


(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:34 - ID#219363)
Final Thoughts
( to the tune of breakin-the-law ) : waggin-the-dog, waggin-the-dog

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:37 - ID#257148)
Who took an axe and gave her mother forty whacks?
Umm.. anyone fancy a real slice of Americana for your next vacation?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:38 - ID#185448)
Brabo. But: Average ropean is not too different from any other average citizen here on this globe. As this also affects historical knowledge, Im not really supporting your colonial-theory. ( And this would exclude for instance Switzerland and most of the N-ropean countries, who were in fact not very busy overseas. My take is, its rather a conglomerate of causes, determined by social, historical, political but also geographical causes. Living on a heterogen continent, with different languages and origins demands a wider range of languages and knowledge about your different neighbours. Maybe this becomes a principle in your head, so one extrapolates it also to the not so close neighbourhood.
The Middle East and its religions are our neighbours, they affect us more than maybe the mercans and though - there is not too much understanding generally.

But Habits, reactions, believes, manners that have their roots in muslimic religion ( and their different fractions ) obviously are not a big theme in international politics. Do you think it would be possible somewhere outside the Usofa that a man - or better: a man of honour - gives testimony about his sexual deviations in public?

Pride and dignity and a different take about correct behaviour.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:39 - ID#230376)
@ Envy

A note of cynisism, perhaps? Your post was outstanding. Not many give a darn about the rest of the world, let alone what goes on around them. As long as it doesn't affect them personally they could care less. One reason ( you were right ) they really don't know where the Sudan is. Geography hasn't been taught in scholls for many years, not properly,that is. All of the related parts ( people,cultures,animals,vegetables,and minerals ) are no longer a part of education.

Gold? ...... jewelry to be worn in some hole pierced in a body part.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:53 - ID#230376)
@ Fred....

What's with the Hungarian stock market??? And can the Russian market really go to zero?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 05:56 - ID#230376)
@ auracious....

You are a real PIECE or work ! Good day from the the chilly Midwest....chilly 'cause its a cool place to live.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:05 - ID#257148)
Gidday from the chilly city of sails---the coldest day so far this winter, maxed at only 12C.
Peace or work to you, too amigo.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:10 - ID#230376)
@ Salty.....

It must really be in paradise. Gotta go...nice GOLDen sunrise outside...bbml ...have a happy!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:21 - ID#185448)

First - Hungarian stockmarket was investors darling in recent years. THE emerging market outside our backdoor, as hungary is the most advanced of the former Warszaw-pact-countries, politically and economically. But right now, everybody takes his money home to put it under the mattress in a ( still ) hard currency. Second - most advanced means relative economic stability but still far off from western ropean standard. Investing in eastern europe is and was speculative investment, and now, fundamentals strike back. Third - Last elections did not strenghten investors confidence.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:35 - ID#185448)
Ersel- P.S.
Sorry - Forgot to answer Q2:
I say no. They will simply add three zeros and rename the index, or they say that the old index was inadequate and replace it with ANOTHER one with a slightly different composition.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:50 - ID#69149)
Re: War on terrorists...

Can you say "hubris"???

I understand that we had to do something, but this will get totally out of hand IMHO.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:52 - ID#257148)
I concur

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:55 - ID#289357)
Global Intelligence Update

STRATFOR's "The Future of War" is
available from St. Martin's Press.

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
August 21, 1998

[We normally do not use waste your time blowing our horn, but we decided
to indulge ourselves a little. Our readers will recall that on August 10
we stated that Osama Bin Laden was responsible for the embassy bombings.
We had lots of company on that. We also said that Sudan was working with
Bin Laden. We were pretty much alone on that, at least in public. Today's
air strikes confirm the STRATFOR analysis. We would like to remind you
that there is a third element in our equation: Iraq. Since our job is to
forecast, and not to pat ourselves on the back, it's back to work for us.]

Russia Draws "Red Line" Against NATO

Russian President Boris Yeltsin's Aide for International Affairs, Sergei
Prikhodko, told the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS on August 18 that "There
is a red line' for Russia which cannot allow the crossing of that line.
Should a question about the admission to NATO of any of the countries
located in the territory of the former Soviet Union be put on a practical
plane, a revision of relations with NATO will become inevitable." He said
Moscow was "concerned about the attempts to impose a NATO-centered concept
of the creation of new architecture of the European security." Prikhodko
added that Moscow is also concerned about the U.S. tendency to use
unilateral force to solve international crises. Specifically, he spoke out
against the prospect for NATO to intervene in Kosovo without first
consulting the UN Security Counsel, "whose relative charter prerogatives
are one of the cornerstones of the entire modern system of international

According to Prikhodko, President Yeltsin "is in the mood for the most
serious work" during the upcoming summit with U.S. President Bill Clinton
from September 1 to 3 in Moscow. Yeltsin is certain to raise the topic of
NATO expansion during the talks, particularly the prospects for membership
in NATO for the Baltic states or Ukraine. Yeltsin will be seeking some
sign of retreat from Clinton on NATO expansion, especially as Yeltsin will
be holding a summit with Ukranian President Leonid Kuchma on September 18
and 19 in Kharkiv. Any evidence of weakened U.S. commitment to Ukraine
coming out of the Moscow summit will give Yeltsin a great advantage in the
Kharkiv talks.

Two things emerge from Prikhodko's statements to ITAR-TASS. First, Russia
is ever more explicitly behaving as if the boundaries of the former Soviet
Union are its own. This process was accelerated recently in Central Asia,
as Taleban advances in Afghanistan caused the former Soviet Central Asian
republics to call on Moscow for military aid. Now Russia is attempting to
solidify its sphere of influence in the west, though this time without
invitation. Besides demanding that NATO abandon thoughts of including the
Baltics, Russia is playing pressure politics in the region. In the midst
of border demarcation negotiations with Latvia, Russia has launched the
largest military exercises along the Latvian border since Latvia's
independence in 1991. Subtlety is not Moscow's forte.

The second feature highlighted by the "red line" commentary is the
significant role played by Prikhodko in Yeltsin's foreign relations.
Rather than relying on the Foreign Ministry, Yeltsin appears to be holding
his foreign policy decisions close to the vest. Prikhodko was one of only
three of Yeltsin's aides to survive a presidential staff shakeup in May.
Since then, he has been Yeltsin's point man on the missile deal with
Cyprus, the crisis in Yugoslavia, and the summits with Clinton and Kuchma.
It may be that Prikhodko is silently powerful within the Kremlin or, more
likely, that he is merely trusted to carry out the decisions that Yeltsin
is making more and more on his own.

An embattled Yeltsin will meet an embattled Clinton on September 1. Both
have to appear tough, Clinton to cover his shattered domestic image with
the cloak of foreign policy leadership, and Yeltsin to do essentially the
same. With his economy crumbling around him, Yeltsin must play the strong
nationalist-imperialist card, lest his opponents play it against him. For
Yeltsin to retain control of the political situation in Russia, the "red
line" must not be crossed.


To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:56 - ID#57232)
Market reaction to bombing - Globex - Eurodollars up, sp-500 down
aurator: I think part of the problem non-Americans have with America is that we are so heterogeneous. Historically, America has always been reluctant to meddle in the affairs of foreign countries. Most Americans, for good or bad, know little about the rest of the world.

So -- how do you explain US foreign policy? It is a group within our government. Is this a conspiracy? I don't know -- but it is nothing new in the way of human affairs over the centuries. It was true of the United Kingdom before us. But -- that does not justify anything.

Am I happy with the bombing as an American? No, even if the average American might be pleased that we punished someone for the Embassy bombings. Part of human nature is to do something in retaliation -- 'if the Merkans are capable of relaliation, they should do so' might be what some people would say.

What makes me mad is the timing. And -- the arrogance of it. Are we becoming like Israel, with these aggressive anti-terrorist strikes in foreign countries? But -- Israel is in a very different situation -- they are surrounded by hostile nations. Their very survival is in question, so the stakes are much higher.

What we risk with WJC's actions yesterday is escalation of terrorist attacks within US borders. What we should have done is to use our CIA to retaliate -- behind the scenes. The terrorists would have known who was behind the actions anyway. But -- I think we all know why WJC did not use the CIA. And, for many years the CIA has not done well in foreign intrigue. WJC may be more dangerous than Richard Nixon was during Watergate. WJC is sane enough not to start WWIII, I think.

Am I pleased we have pinpoint weapons that can be used to destroy threats with few casualties on both sides? Yes. But -- we should not have used them -- because we are accelerating the process that will lead to terrorist attacks on American soil. We certainly will have plenty of opportunity to see if these weapons work in battle.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:56 - ID#257148)
I concur

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:58 - ID#37463)
Joke of the Morning
How does one prepare himself for the state of the world paper markets this morning? The following story might help:

"May I take your order?" the waiter asked.
"How do you prepare your chickens?"
"Nothing special," he replied. "We just tell them straight out that they're going to die."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 06:59 - ID#412286)
defector who wrote two books on Russian reform being a hoax may be right. Looks like Russia has realized it has gotten all it can from the west from being friends. SEE .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:05 - ID#316193)
SPOILS OF A PIG MARKET - Linked From Fiend's SuperBear Page. Thanks Fiend.

Bully Beef
(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:06 - ID#259261)
Great discussion last night(Who am I to judge?)
In my dealings with the citizens of America their education is like their economics. There are those that are incredibly brilliant and a lot that are not. My question is ...How do you not get involved in the Middle East? Do we let them blow each other up or continue to intercede and only delay the inevitable? Why is the sky blue? Is a fishes arsehole watertight? If its a Wednesday and the sun is shining and its 3o'clock in paris if a tree falls in uganda and there is nobody to hear it does it make a sound?
Go gold? Please? No?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:06 - ID#37463)
I have to agree with your comments on your last post. Let me ask you a question. Its pretty well accepted that the reason that Clinton is well liked and stays afloat in the polls is because of the "robust" economy. Why does the common person think that Clinton has anything at all to do with the economy? Isn't the populace intelligent enough to realize that Clinton is only hot air and that he has never worked a day in his life other than as a beaurocrat?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:08 - ID#257148)
Your last paragraph --eggsacktly-- Why hit a hornet's nest with a fly swat? It will just piss off a lot of hornets that were minding their own business while missing the bugger that stung.

It saddens one to think that this action will increase the likelihood of more random global terrorism and it will also hasten the arrival of this vileness to American soil.

I can't see this is good news for humans nor gold.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:09 - ID#185448)
The violation of international rights in combination with the form, in which it took place is a case of political terrorism and not justified by the assaults of the counterpart.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:12 - ID#37463)
Linbaugh Show Comment
I thought a comment by a woman yesterday on the Rush Limbaugh program was pretty interesting. Many of the liberals refer sarcastically to the Ronald Regan years as years of greed and as the "me, me, me years". Now, with the Clinton presidency everyone wants him in there for the prosperity which people mistaken believe that he has given them and can continue to give them. How is that different? The only difference in my view is that a pantload with a blow dried dye job is saying it and it seems to make all the difference.

Bully Beef
(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:17 - ID#259261)
To me there is nothing like a good argument.
I just hate the cheap shots. ( I have delivered one or two in my time. )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:17 - ID#37463)
Bully Beef
Those are pretty esoteric questions you raise. I can only answer that a fish's rear end is indeed water tight. And you might ask how a hippo mates. Very carefully my friend. Very carefully. Go gold.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:20 - ID#412286)
I think before we bomb we need to sit down and have a conference with the radical Islamic world. Who here can not see how they have a beef with us. We have bombed them, tried to dominate them, have military craft off their shores ready to strike and we always support Israel. I think it is in the interests of the US and the rest of the west to sit down and negotiate. As we learned in Viet Nam you can not win a war against an elusive enemy. Further action against them will only increase their support among the middle eastern people. This is obviously counter productive and can only lead to an escalation of violence. I for one do not want to see more Americans killed by terrorists in return for the terror we rein down upon people in the middle east. Israel and the US have killed their share of women and children. As these people have a legitmate gripe, terrorism is their weapon, to stop it we need to try to meet and negotiate a global peace in the middle east. Then it wont matter that the terrorists are using weapons to kill our people from our CHINESE FRIENDS who develop better weapons by stealing secrets from their FRIENDLY AMERICAN CORPORATIONS.
Arms merchants NO Peace YES.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:21 - ID#37463)
I just observed that the Oriental and European markets as a whole have tanked this morning. I presume these are a byproduct at least in part of the Clinton war. Also I would venture a product of more mature thinking on the Clinton speech where he took the blame and then passed it on to Ken Starr. Unfortunately ( or probably fortunately for us gold bugs ) this will no doubt spill over into the USA markets today. I would say that we can look for the DOW to be down 178.3 today.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:22 - ID#57232)
Fatima and Russia
ROR: Good that you have posted this. My reasoning on this is a bit different, though the outcome is the same. The Communist nations -- Russia I know better than China -- have systematically wiped out the people that could pull Russia out of the valueless depths of Communism. Nothing effective has really been done by the 'free' world to help the Russians come out of this moral hole that they have fallen into -- best exemplified by the sorry state of the Church in Russia.

So -- the Fatima prophesies are coming true -- Russia is to be a serious threat to the peace of the World -- a different potential Russian/Chinese 'New World Order' as you put it. So -- my premise is that there is no intentional communist conspiracy in Russia to deceive the rest of the world. The Communist government did indeed fall apart -- their military is indeed in disarray -- and were incapable of responding in the usual brutal fashion to the Chechnia situation.

But -- the insidious climate that created Communism and its near total lack of regard for the freedoms of the individual -- is still there. That is where the 'conspiracy' actually resides. Not a true conspiracy, but it would very well have the same outcome. The lines are being drawn again for the next major military confrontation in the world, and I don't like it one bit.

Unfortunately, our current foreign policy has been encouraging the rebirth or strengthening of the Communist systems. Hardly the thing to do if the 'New World Order' masterminds are really in control.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:25 - ID#35571)
The next shoe
Little is left to move the markets for the nonce. The military reprisals have been shrugged off, Clinton has gone to the confessional, and the world's currency problems have setled into a slow simmer. So we wait for the next shoe to drop.

It may not be long in coming. The full extent of the losses at Japanese banks and trading houses has yet to come to light. Behind the scenes quietly frantic activity goes on.

And now another domino has fallen. The trading house Okura & company has declared bankruptcy. Okura had about 38 billion yen in loans from Fuji bank.

If a domino falls in the forest and no one pays much attention....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:28 - ID#37463)
A Dialogue with terrorists
While I think the raid yesterday was hasty and was made to save BC's behind, I do support direct and swift attacks against the source of terrorism. I don't think that the USA can successfuly negotiate with terrorists. These people have little regard for life, revenge is sweet and power is what they understand. The basic problem is with the general nature of man. We are selfish. We seek our own confort, safety, power and riches. Only a higher power brings out the higher virtues which we would would like to ascribe to ourselves and to others, those virtures which make compromise and caring a part of life and negotiation a viable option. Those higher virtures are fading folks.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:29 - ID#35571)
I look for the markets to be fairly flat today. Down in the morning, recovering before noon and down slightly at the end of the day. My guess, -30 even though this is a Friday.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:33 - ID#35571)
Just give us time and we, too, can be surrounded by hostile nations.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:34 - ID#37463)
You could be right. The USA does dance to a difference drummer on occasion. The question is, who is going to drum today? I think that Americans are realizing that WJC's comments on his own conduct was the dripping bag of dog droppings that it was and the euphoric mood of the stock market on that and the previous day will change and today will see those gains lost. Sorry about the last sentence--sounds like a section from the Internal Revenue Code.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:38 - ID#257148)
Cause and effect.
By sowing, we reap. An act of violence begets the same. May we all find a peace within, for then there shall be peace without.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:38 - ID#224363)
I think you have hit the nail directly on the head. The last 8-12 months have been nothing but one fiscal crisis after another. I think the impact in the US and Europe has been muted by their inherent strength but exists nonetheless.

First we had Asia and it still continues. Then we had the 2nd tier industrialized countries like Australia, Canada, NZ, etc. I think Perhaps Latin America is next followed by Europe and then finally, the United States.

We shall see but I don't hold out much hope for a recovery anywhere any time soon.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:39 - ID#57232)
Economy and Clinton
Tortfeasor: I am no expert in politics and public opinion control. I think much of the American public is not outspoken, so it is hard to guage the real mood of the public. Also -- most of the polls these days are controlled by the newsmedia -- in a highly nonscientific fashion. And the newsmedia are controlled by the same fairly monolithic group that supports our ( still ) popular president.

All that aside, I think most of the public -- like in any nation -- does not really get upset with the things are with our leaders -- as long there is plenty. Plenty of jobs, plenty of food, etc. WJC knows that if the economy folds, he will be under alot of pressure.

Part of all this is human nature -- most Americans I know need two jobs to keep the lifestyle they are accustomed to. Even some of the female persuasion have two jobs, not just the males. What does this say? That the average hardworking American has been hoodwinked into thinking things are good right now, and that two jobs are the only way of life. Things are no where near as good as they were in the 60's when American standards of living were higher, and our moral code was followed more closely. Americans still worked hard then -- but our money went alot further -- and we weren't sucked into the debt addiction bit.

It is the old business of 'cooking the frog'. If you cook it slowly enough, the frog does not know until it is too late. But -- it you drop the frog into the boiling water, it hops out. Humans are the same way -- accepting our slowly changing lot, because we don't realize what is being done to us ( or done to us by ourselves ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:49 - ID#37463)
Your analysis is insightful and correct. Well I had best get showered and enter that netherworld of laboring for my daily bread. I'm going for the seven grain today. Good day all.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:50 - ID#35571)
There are no major wars going on, and there is nothing like peacetime to bring out the basic flaws in the world economic system.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:55 - ID#35571)
It is not so much what he does as how ineptly he does it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 07:59 - ID#287312)
I hate it when Donald isn't here and
I have to look up my own news. :{

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:06 - ID#248180)
FT-SE 100 Index ( UKX ) -- 5508.39 -159.00 -2.81% 7:40

CAC 40 INDEX ( CAC ) ----- 3987.89 -99.59 -2.44% 8:00

DAX INDEX ( DAX ) -------- 5273.02 -215.19 -3.92% 8:00

IBEX 35 INDEX ( IBEX ) --- 9670.70 -327.50 -3.28% 7:40

MILAN MIB30 INDEX----- 35788.00 -181.00 -.50% 8/20

BEL20 INDEX ( BEL20 ) ---- 3397.41 -69.14 -2.00% 7:39

AMSTERDAM EXCHANGES I-- 1160.82 -26.76 -2.25% 8:01

SWISS MARKET INDEX----- 7472.00 -209.89 -2.73% 8:00


Index Value Chg Pct Chg Date

NIKKEI 225 INDEX ( NKY ) -- 15298.20 -93.21 -.61% 2:03

HANG SENG STOCK INDEX---- 7527.60 -214.91 -2.78% 3:59

ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDX-- 2635.00 -23.50 -.88% 2:05

SING: STRAITS TIMES INDU-- 933.16 +10.30 +1.12% 5:00

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:07 - ID#33184)
Pakistan Says Missile Killed Five
Pakistan Says Missile Killed Five

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan ( AP )  Pakistan said today one of the missiles America aimed at neighboring Afghanistan landed on its soil, killing at least five people.

The missile was part of the barrage fired Thursday at Afghanistan, where U.S. officials said they were targeting alleged militant training camps.

``It seems there has been some technical error,'' said Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman Tariq Altaf. He said five or six people were killed, but did not say where the missile struck.

Pakistan condemned the U.S. attacks on Afghanistan and Sudan. Altaf said an American envoy was called to hear Pakistan's ``protest and outrage'' over those strikes, as well as over the mistaken missile strike on its own soil.

``Irrespective of the motives of these strikes, the act of violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of these Islamic countries cannot but be a matter of grave concern to the people of Pakistan who justifiably feel outraged,'' Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz told the Pakistani senate earlier.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:10 - ID#248180)
Russian Bear Merges with Asian Tigers & Creates a SMALL GLITCH
Heading was left off of my last post.
Red all over Europe today.
What's the Holy Dow gonna do today Kats & Kittens?
Cheers JR

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:13 - ID#35571)
Not much.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:13 - ID#33184)
Credit Cards Can Pay U.S. Tax Bills - Only in America!!!
WASHINGTON ( AP )  Beginning next year, the federal government will accept credit cards for Americans' income tax bills.

Although taxpayers will be charged a yet-to-be-determined ``convenience fee'' for the privilege, the Internal Revenue Service hopes the move will encourage more people to file returns electronically. About 24.5 million did so this year.

``Our responsibility, we believe, is to give folks the widest possible array of payment options,'' said Steve Holden, the national electronic program director at the IRS. ``Many consumers will find it convenient to use their credit cards.''

One major question is whether Visa International  the world's largest credit card issuer  will get on board. Company officials there will decide this fall whether to give the program a try.

Under the plan, taxpayers next year will be able to pay IRS bills two ways with credit cards:

Holders of MasterCard, American Express, Discover  and possibly Visa  cards will be able to charge their balances due by calling a toll-free number. It won't matter whether the tax returns are done manually, through a paid preparer, or electronically. This phone system is being run by US Audiotex of San Ramon, Calif.

Holders of Discover or Private Issue cards issued by Novus Services Inc., using Intuit's popular TurboTax or MacInTax preparation software, will be able to complete and file their returns and pay their taxes using personal computers.

In both cases, taxpayers will be charged fees for the service based on the size of their tax bills. Officials at Audiotex and Novus said they have not determined how much the fees will be or how they will be calculated.

But one factor in how those fees are determined is whether Visa will join the other card issuers on the Audiotex system.

Visa, with about 600 million cards in circulation, wants taxpayers to be charged a flat fee rather than a fee based on the tax bill  an arrangement Audiotex believes would cost it money, said Steve Johnson, Audiotex senior vice president.

Visa officials did not immediately return calls seeking comment Thursday. Johnson, however, said the company's board of directors is likely to vote in October on whether to try the program.

Many believe Visa, which has about half the U.S. credit card business, will find it difficult to ignore such a potentially huge market.

``There's too many chips on the table for them not to do it,'' said Frank O'Leary, treasurer in Arlington County, Va., which had the first credit-card taxpaying system in the country.

The IRS previously was hamstrung in setting up such a payment system for federal tax bills because of the issue of fees that merchants normally pay to credit card issuers.

In the 1997 tax reform law, Congress said the federal government should not pay such fees, which forced the IRS to implement the floating-scale plan that shifts the fees to taxpayers.

In Arlington County, the credit-card system has proved popular for paying property and personal taxes, O'Leary said. About 10 percent of the suburban county's taxpayers used credit cards in 1997, the plan's first full operational year.

For tax collectors, less paper is cheaper. Credit card transfers occur much more quickly and reduce the need for extended business hours or extra personnel to process thousands of last-minute returns.

Also, it won't matter if a tax deadline falls on a weekend.

Some experts worry that taxpayers who already have steep credit-card debt might neglect to save for their tax bills and simply use the credit method, digging their financial hole deeper.

Taxpayers who can't pay their bills up front now must request an installment arrangement with the IRS, subject to heavy penalties and interest if they fail to keep up.

``Money management is a big issue. It's clearly not for everyone,'' said Johnson of Audiotex. ``It's for people who see this as an alternative.''

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:19 - ID#219363)
That will no doubt be the funniest thing I hear all day.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:21 - ID#248180)
Brother Oris (the Economists- Economist) They said: "Screw it etc - switched the Responsibility
Date: Thu Aug 20 1998 10:32
oris ( Vronsky ) ID#238422:
Copyright  1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Brother Vronsky, I did not read Dr.Hein's ( ? ) article
on devaluation of ruble, so may be he mentioned the
MAIN thing about it - Russia is importing most of the
stuff it needs, for US$. That is why devaluation was
a tremendous threat to the pocket of the average
Russian citizen. Devaluation happened because Russian
bank refused to support ruble any more by wasting
hard currency reserves. And here is a catch:

Russian Central Bank CARES much more about it's US$
and gold reserves than about ruble. They spent some dollars,
trying to support the ruble, it did not work, they said:
"Screw it, why in the hell should we waste
what we value most of all - US$"...
and now they switched responsibility to deal with this mess
to 1. Russian citizens and
2. Western governments...

Your summation is wonderful. How did you manage to arrive at such pure logic without a serious session of Vodka and pickle chart analysis?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:24 - ID#365216)
DOD sets threat condition ALPHA

O 201811Z AUG 98 ZYB MIN PSN 187875M36 FM CNO WASHINGTON DC//N00//
UNCLAS //N05500//
NAVOP 007/98
REF/B/DOD 2000.12-H//

00D 04MS 04E 04TD 04MP 09NR 00 00H 01 013
02 03C 3D4MED 3D4PRO 03G 03G2 03U 03V 03W 03X 04I 07 07A 08 SEA08B-MP 08ADM 09 91Q 91W1 PMS308 PMS317 PMS340 PMS392 PMS411 PMS425


N41 N412 N414 N41H N417 N423 N429 N7 N74 N741 NTLC N00 N00W N01 N011 N01P N322A N326 N327 N4 N413 N419 N42 N425 N72 N721 N7211

00S 00B 02 093



473-2F B3B B41 B4N B6VITRO B64 BF C CB1 D41 DE E1 FTEMP F3A F321 F4B1 F4B2 F4C1 F4C2 F5X
F51G F51H F51N F51S F51W GA P22 SE1 422-1P 422
422E A2 PMS451E1 PMS451T PMS451E PMS463C 465A1 465A2 D13 D2212 D221 D221A D25 D3111 D3113 D334 D3 DN-T02 DRS EA1

404E 404E1 404E2 404U1 404U5 404U7 411 427ADMIN USWAO USWB USWL USWN USWN1 USWT

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:33 - ID#354133)
Another reason to launch Tomahawk Cruise Missiles
Many of these items are also well beyond their original shelf life, not to mention the potential for being obsolete by Y2K.

( This is unclassified and was released to public several months ago...You should see the "real" report... ) Take the "get-well" dates with a grain of salt...

Some Critical DoD Systems Won't Make Y2K Deadlines

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON -- Some mission-critical DoD systems will not be Year
2000 compliant by an internal department deadline of December 1998 or
the Office of Management and Budget's March 1999 target.
Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre and William A. Curtis,
director of DoD Y2K oversight and contingency planning in the Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control,
Communications and Intelligence, recently released the following list
of those tardy systems and their target compliance dates:

Army Sea-Lite Beam Detector -- June 30, 1999
Standard Army Maintenance System - 1 -- Sept. 30, 1999
Standard Army Maintenance System - 2 -- Sept. 30, 1999
Army HELSTF Executive Controller -- Oct. 30, 1999
Army AN/TYQ-33, Tactical Combat Service Support Computer System-
Enhanced -- Dec. 31, 1999
Army Standard Installation/Division Personnel System -- no date
Defense Communications and Army Switch Systems -- Nov. 1, 1999
Naval Space Command Mission Processing System -- April 30, 1999
Integrated Satellite Control System -- May 31, 1999
NESP EHF Low Data Rate Terminal -- August 1999
Integrated Verdin Transmit Terminal -- May 1999
Integrated Submarine Automated Broadcast Processing System -- May 1999
Non-tactical Command Support System/Shipboard Non-tactical Automated
Data Processing Program I and II -- August 1999
Joint Maritime Command Information System Ashore -- September 1999
Joint Maritime Command Information System Afloat -- September 1999
Joint Maritime Command Information System Tac/Mobile -- September 1999
Joint Maritime Command Information System OBU/OED -- September 1999
Joint Maritime Command Information System Radiant Mercury -- September
Inactive Manpower and Personnel Management Information System --
October 1999
Tomahawk Mission Planning -- March 1999
Tomahawk Afloat Planning System -- May 1999
Joint Services Imagery Processing System -- Navy -- May 1999
Naval Communication Processing and Routing System -- September 1999
Common Source Routing File System -- September 1999
Very Long Baseline Interferometry Mark III Correlator -- July 1999
Execution and Prioritization of Repairs Support System -- May 5, 1999
AC-130U Gunship Avionics -- May 31, 1999
Defense Attache Worldwide Network -- December 1999
Defense Switched Network -- September 1999
Defense Fuels Automated Management System -- June 1999
NIMA Exploitation System -- August 1999
Automated Patient Evaluation System -- May 1, 1999
Defense Medical Regulating Information System -- May 1, 1999
Compliance Monitoring and Tracking System -- April 1999.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:34 - ID#339297)
Security Alerts
I live 1 mile from MacDill - home of readyness command. Coming to work @
8:00 the traffic backup to get in MacDill greater than 2 miles. Rarely see such.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:37 - ID#24135)
On Plagerism ..
For RJ
I wish Id said that.

For Salty
Lizzie Borden .. do I win anodder proize??

News of the day ..
PW ( not pik ) Bother convicted of contempt of court
for showing upraised middle finger to Truth Commission
and not showing up to testify .. he will be fined
$1500 and get a One year jail sentence ( suspended of
course ) ..
there is a rumour that WJC is planning to hire him
as tactical advisor...
Anyone remember the days when some "South Africa
Watcher" predicted a revolution over this item .. you
know this made the first item on the BBC.. and I doubt
if it will make the front page of the local paper.

Took a drive to Stellenbosch this morning .. overcast..
country beautiful .. it was like driving through a
painting by Constable.. very pretty place when the light
is right.

Question ..
Who pays WJC legal bills .. you guys ??

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:37 - ID#354133)
We got that warning yesterday also, at about 13:00. I started to post it, but the AF warning was labeled FOUO.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:38 - ID#243166)
All: Yield Curve
When was the last time ( before now ) that the 30 yr bond yield was less than the discount rate? What are the implications? Thanks

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:44 - ID#242325)
agree 100% with your comments re:terrorism. If this game of tit for tat is allowed to continue probably just a matter of time before airliners are blown out the sky killing huge numbers of passengers.

Unfortunately Clinton's approval ratings probably will soar after these attacks. The American people just love US attacks against foreign devils as long as those devils cannot hit back effectively. But once large number of Americans are killed all this may change. Sad but true.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:51 - ID#242325)
Shepler Market Timer
Thu, 20 Aug 1998 23:50:10 +0000

for 8/21/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/20/98 close: 10.19

Return on current trade: -0.49%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 10.30%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -0.91%

Market Commentary:

The choppy market conditions that we forecast earlier in the week
continued on Thursday, as the market whipsawed most of the day in
negative territory before a late day sell-off caused it to close near
its lows. Market internals remained weak, painting the picture of a very
unhealthy market. On the other hand, short-term sentiment indicators are
still conducive to some further upside. So, market internals and
sentiment measures are in conflict at present. Given this fact it is no
wonder that trading is very choppy and indecisive. However, odds are
strong that our proprietary buy/sell indicator will enter the sell zone
tomorrow. A sell signal from this indicator would virtually assure us
that the rebound rally is over. This would fit in well with our cycle
work which calls for a turning point in the 8/20-8/24 timeframe.
Breadth weakened further on Thursday with Decliners beating out
Advancers 1873 to 1083. This dropped the McClellan Oscillator back below
the zero line, not a good sign for the bulls. New lows increased again
to 250 issues, while new highs increased slightly to 34 issues. Again,
this persistant weakness in new highs vs. new lows is a very bearish
phenomenon. Volume continues to be lackluster at only 621 million shares
traded, signaling that the market is in a corrective phase of some sort.
When volume starts to pick-up again the market should begin trending
down if we are indeed in a bear market as we suspect. In fact, we expect
the next downleg to see record high volumes, and record price declines.
Overly bearish short-term sentiment is the one fly in the ointment
for us currently. The OEX put/call ratio came in at a very high 1.58 on
Thursday. While some of this may have been due to options expiration
related jockeying we still don't like the looks of it, since these types
of put/call ratios typically produce short-term rallies. Also, the Rydex
ratio increased again to 87%, showing a historically high level of bears
among Rydex fund switchers. These types of numbers lead us to believe
that we may see a strong rally Friday and possibly into Monday. Ideally,
we would like to see sentiment numbers switch back at least to neutral
levels to confirm our forecasted top in the next few days.
For now we remain in our current Ursa trade. Although we expect that
a 1-2 day rally may be in the cards in order to work off overly bearish
short-term sentiment, we feel that the reversal from such a rally will
be so swift as to render any fund switching pointless.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:52 - ID#243166)
Black Friday
Today will hereinafter be known as BLACK FRIDAY.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 08:52 - ID#24135)
Nah .. It CANT be..
To all ..
You know that Stratcor group had written that
Bin Laden was responsible for the bombing shortly
after it happened .. They are a consulting group in
the sorta global strategy kinda stuff. They seem
bright and they write well. I wonder if the US used
them on this little exploding embassy item.. I wonder
if they were perhaps mistaken . I mean they're really
just guys like us .. I dont know about you but Im
wrong a lot..
.. also I wonder if that factory in Khartoum really
did just make pharmaceutical products..
.. gee if Cohen and Bill and Madeline were WRONG ...
that might get embarrasing.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:00 - ID#247273)
not gold,,,,,not gold
Jim Rogers, on CNBC, is leaning towards "hard assets", but not gold.
because CB's are selling, and production is increasing every year.
Same could be said of oil, etc.

hmmm, food for thought.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:01 - ID#185448)
Wall St set to open sharply lower..

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:02 - ID#333127)
It's friday sell everything.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:04 - ID#185448)
Russian PM says "crisis has only just begun"

Reminds me of good ole Bachman-Turner-Overdrive-tune: Youve aint seen nothing yet...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:07 - ID#335190)
Russia @ THE CRISIS STARTS NOW (Like oris said 6 to 11 % = Millions of Russians are angry)
Friday, August 21, 1998 Published at 07:33 GMT 08:33 UK

Business: The Economy

Parliament calls on Yeltsin to

Sergei Kiriyenko: politically he is very alone

Russia's lower house of parliament, the Duma, has called on
President Boris Yeltsin to "stop fulfilling his presidential
powers before the end of his term."

In its resolution the Duma said that "the
country is in a deep crisis and the
president is not taking measures to
protect the constitutional rights of the
citizens ... which has created a realistic
threat to Russia's territorial integrity,
independence and security."

The resolution was passed with a clear majority, 245 to 32.

However, in line with the Russian constitution, the president
can ignore parliament's request.

Communists and reformers united

The calls for Yeltsin's
resignation came after a week of
turmoil on Russia's financial
markets. The Duma had been
recalled from holidays to debate
the government's handling of
the economy and its
controversial decision to
devalue the rouble.

In the debate, Communist Party
leader Gennady Zyuganov said
the president's resignation
would be a blessing for the
country. He demanded that
"Yeltsin and his entourage" should step down.

Other opposition parties weighed in too. Grigory Yavlinsky,
leader of the reformist Yabloko party, said he had an
"absolute distrust to the government and the president."

But he said the "current government only deals with what
was created by its predecessors."

The crisis starts now

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:08 - ID#289357)
T/A for HM, TVX in this link

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:18 - ID#242325)
Looks like the definition of :"realistic' is about to undergo a radical shift.Used to mean buy all dips. Now it means sell all rallies.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:25 - ID#335190)
USofA @ Proposed International War Crimes Tribunal ?? (Bombing support in UK-also disagreement)
Friday, August 21, 1998 Published at 09:54 GMT 10:54 UK


Support and criticism of Blair's

Tony Blair and Bill Clinton have built up a close relationship

The prime minister's support for American military strikes
against targets in Afghanistan and Sudan has received a
mixed reaction in the UK.

Mr Blair was one of the first world leaders to issue his
support and it has been revealed that he was one of the very
few given prior warning of the strikes.

He said: "The atrocities this month in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam
and Omagh have shown the pain and suffering terrorism can
bring to innocent people.

"I strongly support this American action against international

"Terrorists the world over must know that democratic
governments will act decisively to prevent their evil crimes."

But the Labour MP for Chesterfield and a
long-standing pacifist, Tony Benn, said:
"I am very disappointed but not a bit
surprised that the prime minister has
gone along with what Clinton has

"We do everything Washington tells us uncritically."

Opposition support

The Shadow Foreign Secretary,
Michael Howard, backed the
US strikes.

He said: "If it is indeed the case
that intelligence reports
indicate that these groups are
responsible for the outrages in
Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, we
support the actions of the US

"International terrorism is one
of the greatest menaces faced
by the international community.
It must be dealt with vigorously and effectively."

The Liberal Democrat foreign affairs
spokesman, Menzies Campbell, was more
guarded but also offered support.

He said: "Public opinion will want to be
satisfied that this is a genuine effort to
combat terrorism and not an attempt to divert attention from
domestic political difficulties."

"So long as the response to the outrages in Kenya and
Tanzania remains proportionate, it should have the support
of the UK Government."

Concern within Labour

However, there was concern among some Labour MPs about
the government's immediate support of the US strikes.

Tam Dalyell expressed the "deepest
concern about the seemingly automatic
endorsement of President Clinton's
actions" by Mr Blair.

He added: "Obviously there is the question why now, and
the strong view that before bombing Khartoum this should
have been taken to the United Nations."

Tony Benn wrote to Foreign Secretary Robin Cook
demanding to know the full reasons why he had backed the

He said: "Would an attack of this kind, in which innocent
civilians may be killed or injured, be covered by the proposed
International War Crimes Tribunal to which the government
is committed?".

What do you think of this action by the US?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:29 - ID#290172)
Mr. President: The Expense of Spirit in a Waste of Shame

The expense of spirit in a waste of shame
Is lust in action; and, till action, lust
Is perjured, murderous, bloody, full of blame,
Savage, extreme, rude, cruel, not to trust;
Enjoyed no sooner but despised straight;
Past reason hunted, and no sooner had,
Past reason hated as a swallowed bait
On purpose laid to make the taker mad;
Mad in pursuit, and in possession so;
Had, having, and in quest to have, extreme;
A bliss in proof and proved, a very woe;
Before, a joy proposed; behind a dream.

All this the world well knows; yet none knows well
To shun the heaven that leads men to this hell.
William Shakespeare

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:34 - ID#317193)
I know it is early but someone wake up the PPT people...please!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:34 - ID#280214)
Most folks don't have the resources to plan for the future and thus buy Gold
You know what makes a Kitcoite a Kitcoholic? The difficulty caused by withdrawal. When you are drawn away to tend day-to-day business for a day or two, the catching up is onerous. Thus you find you better log in every few hours so as to not fall too far behind.

@Aurophiles 02:35 - well said! EACH and EVERY individual, culture, nation and country has selective memory and tunnel vision. NONE of the chastizers of the US Govt are innocent enough of this that they can justifiably throw stones - because they are ALL GUILTY.

@Envys 03:55 - well said too! I would add that most of us are too busy with day-to-day business, work, families and survival to worry about what is going on in Baghdad, Tokyo, New York, Miami, or Los Angeles or, for that matter, our local county courthouse. We are not ignorant just of international doings, we are ignorant or national, state, and across town doings. Unless they pose a threat to our peace and welfare - we dont have the time to deal with it.

Really, I should not even be spending so much time here. I have a business to tend to and it suffers from neglect when I spend too many hours here. So why do I continue to log in? To find out what is going on, to get a sense of the identity, speed, size, and ETA of the freight train which is the light somewhere down the tunnel. Some would call be stupid for neglecting my business for this reason. Is it not surprising then that Y2K resolution has been put off by those worried about today or tomorrow. We will deal with it when it knocks on our door. In the meantime we have more pressing fires to put out. At least those of us who have a brain in our head do.

Those whose brains are mush from TV, booze, drugs, and socialistic blood suckers dont have the ability to even take care of the present needs let alone future. They cant figure out how to survive until the next paycheck or welfare check or government check. Shucks, they cant even manage their checkbook or phonebill to not have end-of-month bill shock.

THESE FOLKS WILL NOT BUY GOLD - they cant see what it is good for. The only way to get them to hold some GOLD is for it to be their day-to-day money. At any one time they may have a hundred dollars - maybe even a few hundred dollar notes squirreled away in a drawer for a rainy day. Unlike GOLD, these notes are instantly liquifiable at the gas station or supermarket. If GOLD was as easily spent and as commonly useful then these folks would have a dozen or a even several dozen 10-grain GOLD COINS instead of $50 or $100 notes.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:40 - ID#35571)
Never fear, Gollum is here. Market will end pretty flat today, methinks. After this early morning hiccough. Just thought I'd let it dip a little to give everyone a thrill before we set all the levers back for the weekend.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:42 - ID#317193)
Gollum...thanks...can't let things get out of hand...yet!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:43 - ID#254269)
Bank Privacy ; WSJ has article today on page B2 titled; " New Steps urged to
Protect Privacy of Bank Customers ". It seems that "information brokers'
have been able to get account information over the phone.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:45 - ID#280214)
Ooops, sorry about the on-topic content in my previous post
It is so easy to get wrapped up in the international SNAFU which also affects Gold. That is what I like about this forum. You name it and we talk about it - as long as it seems relevant to business & survival. You won't find us discussing who did it to who on the soap operas - except the one playing in D.C. - but that is proving to be too relevant to ignore.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:46 - ID#411440)
@ BART: could you give us an update on gold and silver lease rates?
Thanx, Rhody.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:49 - ID#280214)
Early Riser's 15:10 from yesterday is too important to overlook
Isure, I agree with you. Now terrorists will strike back while we are led by our joke of a president, and then he can declare martial law under emergency powers. That will finally get Ken Starr off his back. I would not have taken this scenario seriously a week ago, but do now.

P.S. I told you guys I had a lot to catch up on. Sheesh!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:50 - ID#35571)
Yeah, right. Like a good days trading on the Moscow stock exchange might be something like $10 Million. The New York exchange trades maybe $25 Billion a day. Japan I worry about. Russia....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:52 - ID#35571)
Just say the word and I'll shut this sucker down.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:52 - ID#317193)
Gollum...keep that nose up...
Tom bbl

(Fri Aug 21 1998 09:55 - ID#93241)
John Disney 8:52
Good point about Stratfor. I've often wondered as to the background of the author of these reports, to which I've subscribed for some time. Obviously someone in the company has worked for the USG and is very familiar with foreign relations issues. I have found some of their economic analysis to be useful, but they don't touch on equity market weaknesses in the US. Rather, they sing the swansong of the great American economy and the US dollar.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:00 - ID#304282)
Gollum at least you have a good attitude about
losing money. Your our little ray of sunshine.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:00 - ID#35571)
Tortfeasor, I think it was, said he wanted -178. Let's do that, gain some airspeed on the way down, pull a few gees at the bottom, and come coasting back up.

That'll give the day trading shorts some thrills. A lot of them called their brokers before the open, some of the more amatuerish ones are just now doing so. Let's see how they do this afternoon.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:02 - ID#93241)
This is the text from Noesis early bird report I got on Wednesday. Thought it might be of interest to those who watch the oil industry...

Refineries held the line and operations were pretty
steady last week. Inventories remained about the same
across the board. It appears that they are struggling
with how to make enough gasoline during late August,
and the problem may continue into the fall. In fact,
we could see shortages of gasoline this fall. Here is
the reason:

The distillate tanks are full. There is no place to
put more distillate. When you refine crude oil, you
must make some amount of distillate. There is no
option to make just one product, such as gasoline.
Thus, when there is no storage space for distillate
fuel, refiners cannot run the refinery at a level
beyond the exact level of demand for distillate. In
August, that demand is pretty low. Conversely, in
August, the demand for gasoline is high. The refiner's
problem is that he cannot make lots of gasoline without
making lots of distillate. . . .

The immediate solution is to reduce refining rates
( less input of crude oil ) and increase purchases of
imported gasoline. ( Alternatively, the U.S. could
start exporting distillate -- if there is a demand on
the international market -- this has never happened
before, but I suppose it could happen ) . Imports of
gasoline jumped last week from 396 to 715 thousand barrels
per day.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:03 - ID#432157)
Is this the REAL MELTDOWN ??????????--DOW/TSE

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:04 - ID#35571)
DOW -141
Where's the cheesehead?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:06 - ID#304282)
geoffs Hell no!! We're just getting warmed up.
This party is just getting started. We've still got a couple thousand points left. Glad I am 150% short!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:07 - ID#37463)
You better bring it up a little. The Dipsters are getting nervous.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:07 - ID#304282)
The selling pressure is relentless today.
Or maybe just no buyers.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:08 - ID#304282)
CNBC told me the bull market was back on Tuesday.
What happened. Darn.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:10 - ID#229207)
Check out
Remember the little red bull graphic they had on the home page for over a year? The last few week's it's been replaced by quotations, such as the Paul Samuelson gem, "Genius is a rising stock market." Take a look now.

Gollum, someone drop a lit cigar in the control room trash can or something?


(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:11 - ID#427357)
DOW 8300 BY AUGUST 21st??? .only 171 points to go!

Analyst George Ure MADE this audacious prediction more than 600 DOW points ago! And as I speak this morning the DOW is in FREEFALL, already down 140 points ( @8471 ) at only 10AM - with 6 grinding hours to go to see if URE prediction is correct.

Specifically, he forecasted that the DOW will plummet to the 8300 area WITHIN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS.


The basis of his dramatic forecast is a Chart correlation between two periods: 1920 to 1929 and 1988 to 1998. Mr. Ure doesn't mince words. He flatly states: "Bull Market Dead!"

Whether you agree or not, his report is thought-provoking - and therefore should be read by prudent investors.

"REPLAYING 1929 4 WEEKS TO 8300" may be seen at the URL below. It
will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:11 - ID#304282)
Latin America is getting crushed. Germany down over 5%.
Eventually the US will be leading the world lower, not vice versa.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:13 - ID#35571)
There are so MANY ways to lose money.

One way is to go against the trend becuase you are sure it will turn, blame it on a conspiracy when it doesn't turn, and ignore anything that doesn't agree with your beliefs.

Another way is to jump into a short position after the market has already made most of it's drop becuase you're sure it's going down, panic because it came back up and jump out at a lose, only to see the true bear trend reassert itself.

Still another way is...

Losing money is so much FUN! because there are so many ways to do it.

Making money though is hard work. You have to have the cold blooded patience of a Samurai, no fear to lose, quick to move when the time comes, and ABSOLUTELY no pre-concieved notions that you are unwilling to give up or consider alternatives.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:14 - ID#431200)
Monica was described as "hurt" by Clinton's speech on Monday,he never apologized to her
WASHINGTON - Monica Lewinsky testified before the grand jury for the last time yesterday and is reportedly willing to testify before the world in congressional impeachment hearings if called, sources said.

"She'll always cooperate," a source close to Lewinsky said.

President Clinton, who testified on Monday but refused to answer all questions, will fight any effort to try to get him to testify again, CBS reported last night.

Sexgate investigator Kenneth Starr has the option of sending a subpoena to Clinton to try to get answers to all his questions - but sources say no such subpoena has been sent.

In her five hours of testimony yesterday, Lewinsky reportedly contradicted Clinton's testimony on how and when the gifts she got from Clinton wound up with Betty Currie, Clinton's secretary.

The gifts are a focus of Starr's probe because it could be considered obstruction of justice if there's evidence that Clinton told Lewinsky to hide the gifts after they'd been subpoenaed in the Paula Jones case.

Clinton claimed in his testimony on Monday that he and Lewinsky talked about the gifts before they were subpoenaed, but Lewinsky claimed they talked about what to do with the gifts after they'd been subpoenaed in December, ABC reported last night.

Lewinsky also reportedly was asked details of her sexual relations with Clinton, specifically whether Clinton ever touched her to arouse her.

Clinton advisers reportedly have claimed that Clinton didn't consider his relations with Lewinsky to be sex - under the narrow definition used in the Jones case - because he received oral sex from her but didn't touch her sexually in return.

The Washington Post said today that Clinton told the grand jury the affair began in late 1995 or early 1996, and he recalled about a half-dozen sexual liaisons, most in the first four months of 1996.

Lewinsky was said to have described more encounters, beginning in November 1995 and ending in the summer of 1997.

She arrived at the courthouse yesterday looking serious and stone-faced, wearing a no-nonsense conservative gray suit and teal shirt, and without the two high-powered lawyers who cut her a tell-all immunity deal with Starr.

Before testifying, she was described as "hurt" by Clinton's speech on Monday, when he admitted a relationship with her, said he regretted it and wanted his privacy back, but never apologized to her and acknowledged that her privacy has been shattered.

"Ms. Lewinsky is now looking forward to beginning the process of rebuilding her life," said Lewinsky's spokeswoman, Judy Smith.

Prosecutors told Lewinsky, who also testified on Aug. 6, that yesterday would be her last day of testimony.

Just as she was finishing, Clinton announced in Martha's Vineyard, where's he been vacationing, that he ordered bombing strikes against terrorists in Afghanistan and Sudan.

White House spokesman Mike McCurry insisted Clinton didn't decide to bomb in order to divert attention from Lewinsky.

"The timing was not his," McCurry said.

National Security Adviser Sandy Berger said Clinton decided on the military action last Friday, well before his grand jury appearance.

With the evidence he's gathered from Lewinsky and a parade of witnesses, some of whom are expected to return for more testimony next week, Starr will write a report to Congress about possibly impeachable offenses committed by Clinton.

If Congress holds open hearings later in the fall on the allegations, Lewinsky, Currie, Sexgate taper Linda Tripp and First Pal Vernon Jordan could be called as witnesses. Clinton himself could even be asked to testify.

The Washington Post said today that Clinton testified Monday that he misled Jordan, who was enlisted to find Lewinsky a job and a lawyer, about the nature of his relationship with her.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:17 - ID#304282)
You are absolutly right. Never go against the trend. So why are you long in a bear market?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:17 - ID#411440)
@ all: I'd like to repost a question posed earlier by Woody.
When was the last time the US 30 year bond yield was less than
the discount rate, and what are the implications?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:23 - ID#35571)
Golden rule for todays markets: Always close ( or take ) your postions before Thursday afternoon.

Oh, and by the way. While all the Kitco charts are down and everyone is busy watching the DOW play games with day trading internet amatuer shorts, watch silver.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:29 - ID#35571)
DOW -152
Show's over, -169 at the bottom. Now let's see how long those morning shorts will sit there before they get nervous.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:30 - ID#266105)
a wad of Bill's in a blue dress

Long bond 5.432%, lower than Fed funds rate.

Curiouser and curiouser cried Alice.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:30 - ID#348286)
@How Long Will GOLD stay Down Today ?
My guess is not long. All the game pieces are in place.......

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:31 - ID#289357)
EJ @
What's the deal with the skull & crossbones on the top right of the home page? ( ;^ ) )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:33 - ID#57232)
Thought you were at the controls!
Gollum: What's up? Looks like WJC didn't get the expected result. I'll bet his spinmeisters ( and the PPT ) are working overtime. Or -- could it be that RR and AG are getting weary of the charade. I must admit I had expected the public to respond positively to the bombing -- and ignore the rest of the world's problems. Won't be a good sign at all if we roll into Labor day with such a bearish mood.

Notice what Mexico is doing -- the swan dive off the cliff? I'm afraid to look at Venezuela.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:34 - ID#35571)
It just means this is a double witching day. They did pick kind of an ominous looking icon for it, didn't they?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:36 - ID#411440)
@2BRO2B: isn't one possible interpretation of dropping yields
on long bonds and static yields on the discount rate, that the
Fed may be monetizing the debt? Are the Brits and Japanese selling
their bonds again?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:40 - ID#266105)

Dunno, somebody's buying.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:40 - ID#35571)
Just some early morning aerobatics to stir the juices before the long boring weekend.

A couple of factors at work here. 1 ) Today is witching day. 2 ) The internet and low discount brokerage rates has made the day trader a significant factor in todays markets...especially on Fridays.

Anyhing can happen today, but none of it counts ( sorta ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:44 - ID#35571)
DOW -190
Wait a minute, this is getting serious. Gold's down a little too.

Now while everyone's looking over there.....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:44 - ID#147201)
rhody yields
Absolutely!! They have to have enough to soak up the sales of foreign ownd TSY,s and apparently feel this is good foe perceived deflation- whether deflation is true or not.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:46 - ID#229207)
A skull and crossbones on the page
is sure a lot less cute than the little bull they used to have there.

It does, however, accurately reflect market sentiment this morning. With ominous prognostications from Asian and Russian leaders, missiles flying, US corp. earnings down, a person has to be a special kind of optimist to expect that stocks are a good buy right now.

Maybe Gollum's right and the plane will level off and gain altitude. Right now it's picked up a lot of speed on the way down. If nothing else happens today,there will be buyers to bring it back up. If, however, there's fresh bad news today, it'll continue down.

The trouble with speculating in a reactive bear market is that it's so reactive. You have to be very lucky to do well.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:46 - ID#35571)
Ready for another GGSR?

Mad Hatter__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:47 - ID#284230)
Gollum I think we need help from Gandalf on this one!

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:48 - ID#33184)
We all notice the DOW going down - but who is actually buying since a seller must have a buyer - I hope !

Spud Master
(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:49 - ID#28586)
Financial cruise missiles slam into USS PPT...
Congratulations to GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD! Spot on with your prediction!

Got S&P 500 puts?


(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:50 - ID#227238)
Sheeeesh. This is a pretty dramatic way to say TGIF. Would it be safe to say that all surprises, from now on, will now be to the down side?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:56 - ID#411440)
yields: Yes, there are only two possibilities, either the flight
to quality idiots are buying short term treasuries or the Fed is
monetizing the debt.

Let's see...... DOW is tanking ( flight to quality??????? ) and
gold is weakening ( inflation hedge )

I don't understand this game. Maybe I should get out, or go
back and study the rule book again.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:57 - ID#35571)
DOW -167
Weeeee! Was down 200, what volatility, what dips, what fun!

Gandalf the White
(Fri Aug 21 1998 10:59 - ID#433301)
Gollum -- Delayed DJIA
My Crystal Ball said that the down 200 day was today !

PH in LA
(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:02 - ID#225408)
Great Gollum Silver Rally II
Let 'er rip!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:03 - ID#317193)
Buy your gold...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:06 - ID#333127)
If I was short the dow I would cover now.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:07 - ID#288229)

watched a bbc broadcast last night....they interviewed an analyst from the war college......his adamant point, which he reiterated at least 4 times, was not the sex-gate is the issue of the us being
tested on multiple fronts simultaneously.....THEY KNOW NOW IS THE

this scenario was painted in great detail.........right here @ kitco over
6 months ago......who said that??

the wannabees are crawling over each other in order to get at the west...
klinton has deposed our military......we are snaggle-toothed and stretched thin as angel hair......our naval forces are sitting ducks in the middle east
flash-points.....ancient enemies are uniting to fight the great satan.....they
have the missles to blow our fleet out of the hell with phalanx gatlin guns.....they will run out of bullets and the missles will keep a only takes one...saudi arabia is fixing to go up in flames...

'it belongs to them, let's give it back'..........aussie song..

we are fixing to witness a lock-step escalation of hostilities in the oil regions of the middle east...what does this portend??

crude oil prices going through the options are waiting...are yours??

gold is going to follow crude to the moon.....where's that damned grain train??? patience grasshopper......the track is being repaired....ok kemosabe.........

chaos and flux....a great diapora awaits mankind.....look around the next awaits with open arms........everything is going to radically change.....who is the ant.....and who will be knocking on the ants door??


(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:10 - ID#288229)

can ANYbody post the url for digisys charts.... advance...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:14 - ID#35571)
DOW -210
Something just occurred to me. If I build up too MUCH airspeed on the way down, and then pull back too hard on the stick as the ground comes up, there is some small trivial inconsequential harldy worth mentioning possibility that the wings might just possibly come off.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:14 - ID#187218)
I'm now less than 5% paper
Several months past I said that while I was away on hiatus that 'dramatic' drops will occur in the paper market. I've sold all but 5% of my paper and had just closed on a land acquisition in a prestigious area. It was a steal that I've been negotiating for quite some time.

I purchased the property with cash on hand and the sale of paper I've held since Jimmy Carter days. The final days are on the horizon. My asset allocation is now held with numerous properties, gold, silver, platinum, with little paper left for fun. I feel on top of the world because I know the end is here and I took advantage of the sucker's rally over the past XX years.

Get out! 95% of you derivative players will lose. I do hope the winning 5%'ers are Kitcoites, though.

You may get a bump here-n-there but the trend is DOWN --- recognize it --- obtain bullion and/or numismatics.

I will be away for several more months dealing with architects, engineers, surveyors, et al to build the dream home where I can view on-high the destruction about to unfold.

Here's hoping Kitcoites heed the ( always valuable ) advice given on this forum by many professionals and free-thinkers !!!!!!! Good luck to all !

p.s. ,,,,, tolerant1 ------ Namaste' ,,,,,,,

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:15 - ID#290172)
To: Dr. Rube Goldberg, Chief Engineer, Head of Design
Global Fiat System
Avenue of Dreams,
NY, NY 1098765432

From: B. Worried, Fiat Failure Testing Director
Currency Research Test Labs

Subject: Conclusion of 30 year Fiat Failure Test: System Failure Alert

1.1 As stated in the summary portion of the Second Quarter report, we are experiencing significant strain-gage failures on the superstructure's perimeter. Further, these failures-which the design blueprints indicate are non-critical to the overall superstructure-are linked, through the 1980s/1990s derivative hydraulic system redesign, to the system critical components.

1.2 System critical components have not yet failed, but are experiencing increasing stress as the derivative hydraulic system activates/deactivates in a manner that is not predictable.

1.3 As this facility has no design blueprints for the derivative hydraulic system, there is no possibility that we may track either the increase/decrease of pressure as it moves through the system, or any way to reasonably judge HOW it will move through the system ) .

1.4 We are unable to provide a probable time-sequence for the critical components failure, but as the damage to the sub-systems, and the failure of perimeter components, is significant, the indications of System failure warrant a formal "Alert" warning.

Got gold?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:17 - ID#35571)
@PH in LA
Ok, here goes!!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:21 - ID#147201)
How about emailing me. I have some answer to a previous question from you. Thanx , Charlie

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:23 - ID#338418)
Gold Debate @ 11:40 CNBC
Starts @ 11:40

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:28 - ID#240171)
Very nice SDRer
Turning out to be a very interesting month.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:28 - ID#384350)
PPT in Trouble
Like I've said over the past several days. The PPT went overboard on Monday and Tuesday to prop up the market because they couldn't have the markets tanking when Clinton was admitting he was a cheater and a liar.

All this crap is being unwound on expirations day.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:30 - ID#174239)
More loose by Market Timing than those who get rich this way.
The two richest men in the world did not get that way by trying to time the market with daily stock trades.

My understanding of Warren Buffet's strategey is to invest in well managed, easy to understand companies for long term growth. I am sure his silver pourchase also fits his long term value approach.

Bill Gates got rich by being the right person at the right place at the right time. Just like the Railroad Tycoons of the late 1800s, the oil Barrons of the early 1900,s etc. Bill Gates is a software Tycoon at a time in history when software is new and in serious demand. In another 50 years or so there will be some other new industry to make a different tycoon amazingly rich.

Over the long term ( say 15+ years ) the S&P500 index funds outporform almost all managed funds. The few managed funds that outperfrom the S&P500 are more than offset by mass of funds that don't. Apparently most people with finance degrees, who invest all day, five days a week, and have all sorts of finance contacts and magazines can't beat the S&P500. What makes me think an investing hobbiest like me can do it?

Of course if your hobby is gambling, then timing the market is just as good as going to Las Vegas. Instead of the House taking a cut by the way the odds are arranged, it's the brokers who take a cut on every buy or sell order.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:37 - ID#280339)
Gollum Re: Correlation chart for dow
Chart predicted todays retest of the lows. Now it predicts a rally into mid September before another big wave down. Pretty cool.

Vix is up over 35. This gives PPT lots of ammo.

In other words please rally so I can get short again.

To see chart select dow at

Got Gold!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:40 - ID#402148)
what happned to Gold on CNBC at 11:40

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:40 - ID#402148)
what happned to Gold on CNBC at 11:40

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:40 - ID#147201)
Down 244+ dropping 5 pts at atime

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:40 - ID#286230)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:43 - ID#36977)
Wye Too Kaye Post?
Since we haven't has any recent TGIF postings from Tortfeaser. . .

So, this guy is flying in a hot air balloon and realizes he is lost. He
reduces height and spots a man down below. He lowers the balloon further
and shouts:

"Excuse me, can you tell me where I am?"

The man below says: "Yes, you're in a hot air balloon, hovering 30 feet
above this field."

"You must work in Information Technology", says the balloonist.

"I do" replies the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," says the balloonist, "everything you have told me is technically
correct, but it's of absolutely no use to anyone!"

The man below says, "You must be a manager!"

"I am," replies the balloonist, "but how did you know?"

"Well," says the man, "you don't know where you are, or where you're going, but you expect me to be able to help. And, you're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now it's my fault!"

My apologies if this has been posted before.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:43 - ID#320202)
the talk aboutGold on CNBC will be MONDAY at 11:40

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:45 - ID#266105)

lady_bug, I knew Ziva and lemme tell'ya, you're no Ziva.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:45 - ID#368244)
@ Gollum

Those day shorts should be ready to get out any moment.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:47 - ID#36977)
Bill & Hillary Clinton were sleeping one night at the White House. Hillary wakes up and starts shaking Bill to wake him up. "Bill, Bill wake up."
Bill stays sleeping. Hillary continues, "Bill, Bill wake up."
Bill finally wakes up and says, "What do you want?" Hillary responds, "I have to go use the bathroom."
To which Bill says, "Please tell me you didn't wake me up just to tell me you have to go to the bathroom."
Hillary says, "No, I just wanted to tell you to save my spot."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:47 - ID#30116)
Forgive me for posting the obvious, but...
Has anybody checked thr $TRIN or up volume versus down volume? Hint, almost 300 million shares on down volume versus about 11 million on up volume with $TRIN bouncing around four to five! Jeeeeeez! Talk about sentiment change!!!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:48 - ID#316256)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:48 - ID#410194)
A little Gold move perhaps?
Gold is in the doldrums and it will remain so for a long time to come.. forget about gold skyrocketing to $6000! ( or to $600! )

However, pieces seem to fall in place for a possible little rally in the near future. Not the big one that too many people expect ( especially here ) but the odds are now favouring a little bounce.


But beware, it could be short lived.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:49 - ID#317193)
Gollum...keep the wings on some physical...interesting

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:49 - ID#35571)
I don't think so. The last time this sort of thing happened, they waited untill the last couple of hours before close with a real rush in the last 30 minutes.

They are a greedy bunch and are not going to get out while it still looks like the market is continueing to tank.

Anyone who still likes to buy dips will find the right time just about 2:00 EDT.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:49 - ID#255226)
Just reversed my sNp shorts from 1110.00, keeping a close stop

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:51 - ID#224363)
CDN Dollar absolutely being killed today. Yen back up !!
The flight to safe haven continues to be US Dollars but gold is holding up better fairly well right now so we shall see.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:52 - ID#402148)
Minimum pain close on XAU is 66 today. Watch.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:52 - ID#427357)
George URE is UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!

More than four weeks ago Mr. Ure called for 8300 DOW on August 21...
The DOW is now off 256 at 8355... and falling

This has to be the THE MOTHER OF ALL CALLS

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:55 - ID#35571)
Yeah, those are cool charts. Because of the way they are constructed they give you a snapshot of how the market reacted all those times in the past when it had just come through similar circumstances in market movements as in the last 2 1/2 months or so.

It's like getting the benefit of years of market experience.

If they fail to move as the chart shows, it's a good bet that something new or not as before is happening.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 11:59 - ID#320202)
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ?? explain please

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:05 - ID#57232)
Better call Boeing(?) about the maxiumum G-forces on the wings
Gollum: Please be careful! We are not talking about one of Oris' Mig 31's! More like a 747 or a C5A -- or maybe HH's plywood goose. Hold it! come to think of it -- with all the recent repairs -- scratch calling Boeing. We need an on-site engineer! Now -- how are we going to convince him or her to go out on the wings? A big posthumous bonus?

By the way, if you think our swan dive is bad, Agentina is down 6%, Mexican Bolsa -6.4%, Brazil -9.08%, and Chile down 2%. After today, we may still have wings -- triple witching hour and all. But -- I don't know how South America will look. Looks like the Russians have decided to pack it in, and even those last minute derivatives trades will not be honored.

I wonder -- perhaps one day G Soros is going to find himself in a locked market -- permanently locked. No good being on the winning side if no one pays up.

I doubt my Mexican puts will come anywhere near covering my longs. But it does lessen the pain. Only am about 15% long if I include all assets, but even that is painful. About equal parts gold, oil and retail. Still have some SP-500 puts, but they are really out of the money. SP-500 would have to go below 600.

Interestingly, the CRY0 is down today too. Deflationary pressures continue. If CRY0 goes below 200, then I will get really nervous. Time to check on the spot commodity indices. Wonder what D.A. has to say. Bet he has his hands full.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:05 - ID#153102)
@Dream Houses @Whose Dream, Whose House ?
More reports from expeditions:

What is believed is that people today in buying 'real estate' are buying nothing more than a trust as beneficiary to a trust for real estate. The true legal owner of the land is the trustee who owns legal title and holds the land for the use of the beneficiary. The beneficiary has only the right to the use of said land in accordance to the terms and conditions set forth in the trust.

The trustee has a fiduciary responsiblity to the beneficiary and the beneficiary can enforce the trust by suit against the trustee. Conversely, the trustee can enforce the trust on the beneficiary by suit as well. At all times the trustee maintains legal title [ownership] of the land and can lose it only by alienating the title of ownership. The trustee can sell the property to another who assume and be bound by the trust as fiduciary of the land...unless the new owner had no notice of the existence of the trust in which case the beneficiaries would have no right to the land or use and not be able to enforce the trust on the new owner. [Think hard on that. ]

With the above being stated it is believed the Trustee is the STATE ( as in State of Vermont, not Vermont ) and the beneficiary, the poor bastard who buys real estate. The banks and lending institutions participate in administration of the trust as do the counties and local municipal
governments when the 'loan of credit' is paid.

Therefore, those who buy real estate hold nothing more than 'equitable title' for the use of and not ownership. Courts of equity were created for disputes to the "right of use of" property as common law does not recognize trusts or 'for use of' but only ownership and structured conveyance by the exchange of specie or by hereditary passage.

The basis for these statements on trust are from "Equity and the Forms of Actions at Common Law" by Frederick William Maitland who is regarded
as an authority in forms of action in Equity and trusts.

The statement on the Bill of Sale that states for "Ten dollars and other considerations" would put a dispute arising in the property outside of the common law by deficiency with the provisions for trial by jury under Art VII of the Bill of rights. One could never get a true hearing or trial in Law. Even after personal status could be proved and a court of competent jurisdiction could be found.

We do not have an allodial system anymore, our 'land' system is based
on what is called 'marketable' title, as opposed to CLEAR
title. Another 'benefit' bestowed upon us by our ( non ) benevolent
government 'keepers'.

Participation in this system is VOLUNTARY. Most people
VOLUNTARILY allow lawyers to write up their Bills of Sale, and
have no inclination or desire to learn what the words mean that
are used in them.

The "real estate" that is created can be used as collateral for the county to sell bonds.

Have no reference at hand, but someone in Calif. that posted a cite to a Calif Statute that stated in plain english that any LANDS sold in 'fee simple' were declared to be collateral against the federal debt as specified in the 14th amendment. Citation wanted.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:11 - ID#348129)
@IMO my Prediction
GOLD will have a $20. + day move SOOONNNNNNN ......

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:17 - ID#57232)
I'm inclined to agree with you
MoReGOld: I think you are right.

First -- no US market crash in the works for a while, anyway.

Secondly, in future market crashes elsewhere in the world, gold fire sales are less likely. Reason -- the gold has already been sold.

Now -- US dollars are a different matter. So far, however, US dollar fire sales have been neutralized by 'flight to safety'. But -- that cannot last much longer.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:17 - ID#35571)
Who wants to live to a ripe old age? Let's see what this baby can take. Just think of all the good stress factor data we're collecting.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:17 - ID#266105)

l_b-- just a former poster.

Outta here...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:20 - ID#344239)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:20 - ID#57232)
Take care!
Gollum: Careful -- A dead engineer can report no data. Personally I don't think the wings will fall off our markets until y2k or later. Just the other markets. What about Canada? Disturbing thought.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:20 - ID#344239)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:21 - ID#316256)
Who are the terrorists?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:21 - ID#264289)
Precious metal funds
I happened to be watching Geraldo last night. ( CNBC, I think ) and at one of the breaks they showed some market information. I hope I am reporting this correctly, but it listed the top 10 performing mutual funds for the day. At least 4 of the 10 were precious metal funds with gains of between 2% to 4%.

Could the fact that mutual funds hold many companies have the effect that when investors move to them, this action has a 'diluted' effect on the increase of individual stocks? ie; A mutual fund company has $10M invested in 10 separate companies in equal distribution ( lets say each comapny has $10M worth of stock ) . $1M moves into the fund, and each company gets $100K which doesn't ( in this example ) affect any particular stock appreciably. ( $100K / $10M = 1% )

Even though the PM fund has shown a 10% increase, those of us who watch the individual stocks don't see too much of a rise and then ask "Why don't gold and gold stocks rise when there is all this trouble in the world?"

Is this logic correct ( or of any use ) ?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:24 - ID#35571)
From it's low of 5.12 at 9:00 EDT, SIU8 has moved up to 5.17.
How am I doing?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:27 - ID#348129)
Glad you agree... I don't think the entire world's wealth can be held in one currency ( USD's ) .
While just about every fiat currency is wasting away against the USD, eventually the smart will realize that they need a backup currency, et voila, GOLD.......
The enourmous short position will also be an influence.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:32 - ID#402148)
What's up with Glamis? Did Whitte get sold out in RYO margin call?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:35 - ID#290172)
Pop Quiz

From the three ( 3 ) international currencies below mentioned, identify the currency that fulfills the following criteria:
( 1 ) is a specific, standard measure all day, every day, everywhere
( 2 ) is controlled by no single political hegemony
( 3 ) doesn't burn at 450F

Rome, 25 March 1996
How will the accounting rate system need to be modified in a liberalised market?

Liberalisation & Privatisation of the European Telecommunications Sector Preparing for 1998 & Beyond
Dr Pekka Tarjanne, Secretary-General, International Telecommunication Union ( ITU )
"In order to answer that question, it is useful to take a closer look AT HOW THE ACCOUNTING RATE SYSTEM ACTUALLY WORKS. It is based on a dual price arrangement whereby, for each call, one price is charged to users by the originating Public Telecommunication Operator or PTO ( this is the collection charge, usually set in local currency units ) and a second price is agreed by the terminating PTO and the originating PTO ( the accounting rate, usually set


Got gold?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:36 - ID#410198)
Remember the good old days when Gold was a its Bonds and treasurys and Geenspan
all his cash 3-5 mill in bonds NO STOCKS MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:40 - ID#410198)
That post went into cyber space...its was supposed to say remember when Gold was a safe haven now
its Bonds and T-Bills and that is where all Greenspan cash is....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:40 - ID#402148)
US Bonds will loose all it's gains by days end at this rate..........
Japan selling into rally?


(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:45 - ID#289357)
A little more throttle, if you please.....I'm dying over here in PAASF ( ;^ ) )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:45 - ID#253288)
re. Decoupling Gold / Yen
Yen is down against the dollar today, yet gold is shrugging it off. Is the pog finally getting jarred from the yen?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:48 - ID#335190)
August 21, 1998

BOND MARKETS -Soar as Russia, stocks tremble

LONDON, Aug 21 ( Reuters ) - Bond futures soared to new highs and yields fell to record lows on Friday as concern about the Russian financial crisis deepened and spread to Latin America, sending investors fleeing to the relative safety of fixed income markets.

Investors pulled funds out of equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic, driving share prices down, and funnelled their money into bonds.

Comments by the Russian prime minister that the country's problems were only just beginning and speculation about a devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar fuelled the switch.

August 21, 1998

Russian Duma tells Yeltsin to quit

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia's parliament Friday blasted the government's handling of a financial crisis that Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko warned had only just began and overwhelmingly called for President Boris Yeltsin to resign.

The State Duma's hard-hitting but non-binding resolution was the climax of weeks of pressure on Yeltsin and his 4-month-old cabinet over their failure to end the crisis.

"The country is in a deep crisis and the president is not taking measures to protect the constitutional rights of the citizens ... which has created a realistic threat to Russia's territorial integrity, independence and security," it said.

But even after the government effectively devalued the rouble this week, the opposition-dominated lower house of parliament has almost no chance of dislodging the president or forcing a change in policy by Kiriyenko.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:48 - ID#347235)
Oris ( Ithink it was you)
Not sure if you were asking me or my higher ranking friend OLD SOLDIER but I think he will agree. Tomahawk missles were the wrong weapon to use on the training areas in the cofiguaration they were in. The best thing to use would have been cluster bombs set to go off about 50-100 feet in the air to spread shrapnel over the largest area possible to shred people and tents, the Tomahawks they used were good for bunkers.

Unfortunately Ossana Bin Ladin has survised this, the smart thing to do to get rid of him is to contract it out to the Isrealis, the MOSSAD could take him out, do it right the first time, we would not have appeared to be involed and it would have been cheaper to do. I fail to see why our gummint cant figure this out its a no brainer. SHALOM

Gold Dancer
(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:49 - ID#430221)
Good observation that the world's wealth cannot be held in one currency. The tide will flow the other way someday. If Dr. Hein
is correct and the exchange rates are being dictated to these other
countries, then the US is not gaining friends in the long run.

The economic damage done to the Asian countries is worse that
the cruise missle damage done to bin Laden.

Something I don't warm up to is this: first it was George vs. Sadam
and now it is Bill vs bin. What strikes me is that this is the
result of the media refusing to discuss the heart of the matter.
It is like the game we uded to play as kids "King of the Hill".
Everything is being reduced to personalities. I think this is dangerous
and sick. The media should be impeached.

I wonder when gold is going to be helped. Looks like the cycle
lows in October are calling. Damn, and I won't put any more money into
sinking gold stocks either. What if it takes 10 years to get the world
back on and even keel? These gold stocks are DEAD and me with them.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:49 - ID#35571)
DOW -258
Does anyone know if there are more decliners than advancers?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:50 - ID#33184)
Bank runs next year ???

Realizing that the fears of many Americans about the coming effects of the Year 2000 computer may cause many of them to want extra cash on hand, the Federals Reserve plans to stock government vaults with more money. An extra $50 billion will be stored--up form the $150 billion normally held in reserve, in addition to the estimated $460 billion in currency in circulation in America and around the globe.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:56 - ID#343171)
MoReGoLd: $20 in a day??? quit holding back. are we nuts to be expectiing this?
HopeFull: Glamis may be showing strength due to its takeover of mar-west, a stock close to my heart which glamis is gonna get for a song.

good ole days we'd see gold up a few bucks today, maybe clinton can send some federal aid to us aubugs

(Fri Aug 21 1998 12:57 - ID#269191)
Decliners lead advancers 8 to 1.
Apparently Venezuela has decided to let the currency float--a defacto

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:01 - ID#190411)
Don't look now, but XAU is creeping back up.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:02 - ID#24135)
Whos kidding Who ??
I really dont understand this .. A BJ isnt SEX ..
well then what the hell is it ?? In HIS definition
a BJ isnt SEX .. maybe in Jeff Daumer's definition
serial killing isnt MURDER .. I cant cope with this
phony creep ..
Speaking of murder, the US has gotten away with it
for years and years PRINTING the world's reserve
currency just as if they were printing GOLD. Well
sooner or later they were always gonna get caught with
this bullsh!t BUT the ONE required ingrediant to keep
the con game going as long as possible was GRAVITAS..
slick willy has blown that one along with the BJ.
Can you imagine porno three dollar bills.?? We're
only one step away ..

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:02 - ID#280214)
When this server gets slow to respond
It is easy to double post by getting impatient
and tapping the submit button twice or thrice
because the first tap seemed to get no response.
Give it a minute or two - have a cup of coffee.

Spud Master
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:04 - ID#28586)
@Cage Rattler & Fed printing extra "cash" for Y2K
Yea, right. You can be certain that *any* news these so-called institutions release is disinformation:

The Fed's meager "extra $50 billion" printed sounds like faint lip service -- just the thing needed to calm sweating baby-boomers. "Oh man, like, if Y2K were really really serious, they'd be printing at least $300 bazzilion paper dollars, right? So Y2K must be a mild event"

Hence, I assure you, the Fed must be running the paper printing presses night and day, firehoses dousing them down to keep them from melting while they feverishly try to print, bundle and ship to strategic points something more than $50 billion dollars ... try one or two TRILLION paper dollars.

Think about: yer magic number dollars are all screwed-up in sick computers ... people can't get cash, so they start ... BARTERING ... USING COINS ... USING GOLD AND SILVER ...

by the time the effing banks & Fed gets their financial computer networks up and running, you've got a whole populace who are now comfortable with barter and coin money.

In effect, you, the Federal Reserve and your power-thug-lords have LOST CONTROL over the sheeple. This is a big, big non-no. Like Clinton, power-addicts must have their daily, hour fix of control.

So you can be DAMN sure that the Federal Reserve is churning out huge quantities of cash.

One clue to this is the fact that the one US firm that has made the special paper used for US currency for 100 years or so ( name escapes me ) was confronted last year with legislation from Congress for other sources for the paper. I.E. someone needs more paper than that firm could crank out.

Spud, "Impeach them ... impeach them both"

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:05 - ID#24135)
Dont worry ..
to all ..
Disney's law will watch over us ..
ie 41,250/145 = 284.5 and we are
285.3 .. thats fine and dandy ..

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:06 - ID#373284)
alright...HOLD THE DAMN phone...I was not talking about Clinton in my post last
night...OH NO...what I was saying is that was his misguided message to the world within the context of the missle attack...he was the one who said we were going to hunt down and "GET" those responsible...

Personally the whole thing makes me ill...Americans will suffer for this, not Clinton...he will probably be playing golf while someone else has to clean up after him...again...when will WE learn...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:08 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ Look Back -- See Forward

Between July 28 1914 and November 11 1918, some 10,000,000 young men were killed in that vast orgy of mass murder known as World War I. An estimated 20,000,000 more were maimed, crippled, burned, and wounded, their youth lost by mutilation. At the same time 13,000,000 civilians died in that great holocaust; there were 10,000,000 refugees, 5,000,000 war widows and 9,000,000 war orphans.

( The blood ran into the ground, the brains oozed out of the cracked skull and were licked up by trench-rats, the belly swelled and raised a generation of bluebottled flies... )

1911.... U.S. population 94 million - Britain 40 million - Ireland 4 million - France 40 million - Italy 35 million - Japan 52 million - Russia 167 million - India 315 million - China 425 million.

1914... U.S weekly wages rose in manufacturing industries and building trades from $ 17.57 to $ 23.98. Average weekly working hours were reduced from 54.4 hours to 48.9 hours. Unskilled labourers weekly wage went up from $ 8.82 to $ 11.52 While average weekly hours went down from 62.2 to 55.6. Workers ability to buy back goods and services, were lower in 1914 than during the 1890s.

After World War I was over President Wilson himself wearily asked an audience on September 05 1919  Is there any man here or women --let me say is there any child -- who does not know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry? Then he said explicitly, referring to the war just over, This was a commercial and industrial war.

But in between he was forced to rally the nation for the war which was to end war and  make the world safe for democracy. When the European conflict broke out in August, 1914, he urged Americans to be impartial in thought as well as in action and his Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan condemned loans to any belligerent powers as contrary to the spirit of NEUTRALITY.

Three months later Bryans assistant, Robert Lansing, held a conferencewith an officer of the National City Bank who discussed Wall Streetss NEED for short-term credits to European governments so that they could purchase supplies here ( USofA ) Writes Matthew Josephson in his President Makers: The gist of this conference was then summarized in a letter which was given Lansing and which he merely copied and showed President Wilson that same night, October 23, 1914 as representing his own views of the proper policy regarding the temporary banking credits.
That night Lansing won Wilsons agreement to look the other way at temporary credit accommodations that were being supplied the French and British treasuries. Wilson, who had earlier supported Bryans position, now executed a strategic retreat from a position based upon the true spirit of NEUTRALITY to one based upon strict legality

( Concerning the power of these investment bankers, the future U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis had this to say in his book Other Peoples Money and How the Bankers Use It ( New York 1913 ) p. 4: ....these bankers bestride as masters Americas business world, so that practically no large enterprise can be undertaken successfully without their participation or approval. The key to their power is Combination -- concentration intensive and comprehensive. )

In September 1915, the Morgan lack of NEUTRALITY overcame Wilsons announced NEUTRALITY. The Morgan syndicate floated the first of the huge Anglo-French loans. It was for half a billion dollars, the greatest foreign loan yet floated in the U.S of A. Loans followed loans so that by the election year of 1916, when Wilson ran on the slogan HE KEPT US OUT OF WAR the U.S. of A. were in fact already in it.

Allied purchases of all materiel of war had become the chief source of the countrys economic life. The repayment of over two and a half billion dollars depended on an Allied victory while a German triumph would have plunged the U.S. of A into panic and depression.

In the early part of 1917 things looked very dark for the Allies. Financially the Allied governments were finding it increasingly hard to carry on the war, making frantic appeals for more and more credit and loans.

On March 05 1917 Walter H. Page, American ambassador in London, sent a cable home in which he spoke of the perilous economic position of England and France. In this confidential cable ( which was kept from public view until 1936 ) , Page went on to say: Perhaps our going to war is the only way in which our present prominent trade position can be maintained and a panic averted.

One month later President Wilson asked and received from Congress a declaration of war.

We are going into the war upon the command of GOLD said Senator George W. Norris of Nebraska. I feel that we are about to put a dollar sign on the American flag.

Senator Robert M. La Follette of Wisconsin was also declaring almost daily in the Senate throughout 1915 that we were on the verge of entering a war in which American boys would be slaughtered not for the national interests but for the profits of Wall Street. In September 1915, the Senators publication, La Follettes Magazine, declared:

 With the first clash in the great European War came President Wilsons solemn appeal, The U.S. must be NEUTRAL in fact as well as in name. But when you can boom stocks 600 per cent in manufacturing munitions, to the Bottomless Pit with NEUTRALITY! .What do Morgan and Schwab care for world peace when there are big profits in world war? The Schwab properties which stood at a market value of 7 millions before they began supplying the Allies are today given an aggregate value of 49 millions. And now we are about to engage in furnishing the Allies funds. We are under-writing the success of the cause of the Allies. We have ceased to be NEUTRAL in fact as well as in name.

The American people could not be easily rallied to a war for monopolys profits. From 1814 on public opinion was divided, with much of it against the war. There was a strong pacifist tendency in the country which gravitated around Jane Addams, William Jennings Bryan, and Oswald G. Villard. Opposed to this tendency were the big army and navy advocates, who launched a Preparedness Movement Most active in this connection was the National Security League, which was supported by Brady of New York Edison, Rogers of Standard Oil, du Pont of the munitions industry, Perkins of U.S. Steel, Guggenheim of the copper trust, J.P. Morgan, and John D. Rockefeller.

After the war had been declared on April 06 1917, and with the country mobilizing to make the world safe for democracy, any labour strikes or any word for peace was likely to bring mob action.

While such events were taking place a committee on public information was being formed with George Creel at its head and with the purpose of selling the war to America

Under Creels direction were mobilized great hosts of advertising men, campaign directors, designers of posters, artists, professors, sales specialists, publishers, historians, journalists, publicity directors, public relations experts, motion picture producers, editors, and novelists. Presently bulletins, movies, speeches, posters, editorials, news stories, books, tracts, advertisements, leaflets, flyers, pictures, headlines, pamphlets were flooding the country.

There common message was that this was a war against TYRANNY, for the RIGHT OF FREE SPEECH and FREE THOUGHT, a crusade against German AUTOCRACY, to make the BILL OF RIGHTS and DEMOCRACY SAFE.

In the meantime, Congress was passing a series of ESPIONAGE and SEDITION laws that made it a crime to speak out, especially for peace. But despite the penalties of SEDITION laws and the TERROR of mobs, thousands of Americans were getting up on their hind legs and telling the world why they thought the war was wrong.

FWIW ....Take Care

pot O gold__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:09 - ID#223221)
Someone please straighten me out>

If I have a home or a share of stock or anything that I paid for

paper for, and here comes along a goverment and tell me my paper is worth only 1/2 what is was before, Have I lost something? Now I have only for dicussion sake, I now only have 50.00 in paper instead of 100.00.

But at the same time yesterday I ordered a new whatever and the seller will not pay any attention to the fact that my money just lost 50%. He dosent change his price.

Am I in an inflationary or deflationary period.

So I look around to buy some other type paper money. The one that is going to hold its value is too high and I can't offord it. The cheaper paper money is many more than the paper I have.I can't find anyplace to put my paper, because there dangers in every investment place.

Am I just better off to go back and buy two of the things I ordered.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:09 - ID#34191)
Got Milk?
A dairyman I know has 150 cows that he CAN'T MILK w/o power. They'll all get mastitis and IF they can be salvaged at all the milk won't be consumed because of antibiotic residues. He isn't worried because he's never been w/o power for more than 3 hours so has no plans to buy the huge generator it would take to run his machines. Maybe our y2k strategy should include some contracts of milk. Anyone here ever trade that market?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:10 - ID#343171)
secret service just defined a new code name for clinton:
( jerk in sheeps mask )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:12 - ID#37463)
Can anyone give me a URL for XAU PDQ. Thanx.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:12 - ID#430221)
Fed printing more dollars
$50 billion divided by 250 million people in the US is equal to
$200 for each of us. Me thinks that is not enough.

Thanks, GD

Looks like the Fed is in a tough spot. If they say they are going
to print up a realistic amount of currency, like 800 billion, they
might spook people. But if they say 50 billion I would think they
would spook thinking people also. I know the total is 200 billion
but that is still only a small part of what they might need. It
could tell people to start early so they can get theres.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:13 - ID#225236)
Uncle Sam's Fiscal Responsiblility
US has lunched 75 ~$2 dollars Tomahawk missles at Afganistan and six of them at Sudan. Total cost: about $250 Million.

As a result, 10 peasants with AK-47s were killed and an accordeon factory destroyed. What a success!!! Makes you proud to be an American, doesn't it? USA! USA! USA! USA!

Just keep these checks comming, boys and girls; after all, more glorious actions like that and uncle Sam may just need to auction your house off to pay its expenses. Wouldn't it be cheaper to buy chastidy belt for Bubba?!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:15 - ID#342376)
@ Gold

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:16 - ID#348129)
We are now accustomed to seing 5% to 10% moves in commodities and stock market indexes. We see 50% to 75% moves in individual stocks.
Why not PM's ??? Answer - investor psychology.
This will not continue........

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:18 - ID#269191)
Gold won't move until the Fed blinks.
When the Fed is forced to cut rates to bail the financial system because
its tight money policy has caused a stock market crash, then gold will
move. For now gold investors must be patient.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:20 - ID#333127)
to Petronius
They were close to expiration date, in addition a lota newsprint sold.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:20 - ID#224363)
Folks...listen very carefully
Gold is actually doing quite well at this moment considering the performance of the Yen and other currencies relative to the US dollar. Today's upward movement ( albeit small ) is great news considering that most currencies are suffering today.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:21 - ID#373284)
and another thing eh...I am not the one with dead bodies falling all around me
like a certain WJC, the people around me are smiling, happy and generally in a resoundingly good mood...about the most vicious thing I do to someone is over or under cook their hamburgers...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:23 - ID#317193)
Almost a full blown currency crisis and gold is surging up or down..
Perhaps when Bonds start to fall.Yes? We watch this new long bond market together.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:28 - ID#153102)
@Greenspin @Currency Devaluation
Greenspin holds bonds that are debt of the United States. If you think you own "real estate" in America, allow me to introduce you to one of the financiers of the true legal owners of your land, the State of in which you have your residence address, Alan Greenspin.

The $US is strong because it is backed by the land of America and by the improvements thereon. If the renters, who have been deceived from birth into thinking they could work real hard and own a home or farm or business, do not pay the assessed rent which comes in the form of various tax bills, they will be evicted and the real estate trust which owns their land and improvements will be sold to someone else.

So, it seems to me a Currency Devaluation is a devaluation of the land and improvements of the country that sold bonds to issue currency on the promise of future payments from ground rent charged to residents.
How much the residents are willing to pay to live in the country is key to its currency's valuation. I mean, for example, if Americans suddenly understood that they do not own their land or their currency or their car, their enthusiasm for working would be diminished, wouldn't it ? If a government overvalues the land and improvements over which it is sovereign and overstates how hard the people will work to pay it rent and perform slave labor for it, devaluation is forced on the country by the market of financiers. The neat thing is the US has a monopoly on the money in which a lot of the world's ground rent must be paid.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:31 - ID#213265)
@the scene
TYoung -- It is my contention that gold will begin its initial climb WHILE the bonds and dollar are still moving up. It's a case of paper BEGINNING to find other places of shelter and some investors thinking gold is still one of those, while money is STILL finding its way into bonds and dollar.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:32 - ID#229207)
Gold Dancer
What happens to the extra $50 billion after the crisis is over?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:33 - ID#25171)
Action a little bit disappointing . Let's wait for the last hour. Monday will see the release of the Russian debt restructuring conditions .
CSFB announced official losses of 1.3 bln $ in emerging market group.
Market rumour has it that it is more in the 2.5 area.
Even better , CITIBANK has closed this morning emerging market operations. Well done for TRAVELER. It is anyone 's guess to assess the losses.
The GERMAN bank cartel will know monday if they loose collectively 15 bln$ or double that depending on the RUSSIAN conditions. I would not bet on a Christmas present as CHUBAIS said it would be tough but fair ( meaning same treatment for residents and non res. )
Have fun.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:33 - ID#289357)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:34 - ID#317193)
Eldorado...I agree...just hanging around waiting and waiting and.....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:35 - ID#373284)
TYoung and Eldorado, Namaste' and a gulp to each of you, and I am in the
same line with ya...waiting...just waiting...and waiting some more...ho hum...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:36 - ID#289357)

My apology for misspelling your name.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:36 - ID#229207)
Spot gold price on the site says $0
Never seen that before. Seems they're having trouble getting data. A suspicious mind might think...

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:38 - ID#33184)
Computer crash snarls air traffic over New England - what about next year!
BOSTON ( Reuters ) - The computer system serving air traffic in New England and New York blacked out for 37 minutes on Wednesday night causing havoc from the Canadian border to Long Island, the Boston Globe is reporting.

``It was chaos,'' William Johannes, local president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association told the newspaper. ``Controllers were having to ask airplanes where they were at, saying 'Say your position,' and one aircraft replied, 'Position to what?'''

The outages in the mainframe computer at the Federal Aviation Administration's Boston Center, located in Nashua, N.H. , began at about 6:50 p.m. EDT, the newspaper reported.

About 75 controllers were following some 300 planes when all information identifying the craft, including their altitude, air speed, route and destination was lost from the screens.

All that remained on the screens were the blips that let controllers know there is a plane in the air, the Globe said.

Delays occurred along the coast as the controllers scrambled to inform other FAA centers not to send planes into New England's airspace.

The FAA did not immediately return phone calls seeking comment, but an agency spokesman told the Globe, ``Safety was not compromised.''

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:39 - ID#35571)
Well, it's almost 2:00 EDT. In a few minutes I'll start pulling back on the stick and we'll see if the wings are going to come off or we get some altitude back. Man! What a ride!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:39 - ID#365216)
build up cash reserves and bullion slowly over next 18 months
Besides accumulating bullion PMs, I would suggest quietly building
a Y2K cash reserve simply by withdrawing 5-10 percent of your paycheck
each week and letting it accumulate in a safe depository readilly
accessible only by you or your family. Even $50 a week for the next
16 months = $200X16= $3200 which should keep you going for two or
more months. If you plan to need more, withdraw more accordingly.

I can't emphasize enough that guns and gold will ALWAYs have intrinsic
value and can always be sold, long term water ( costs practically
nothing NOW ) and long term food can always be consumed for nutrition,
and stored household goods can always be used/rotated when near
expiration. Why risk being without when there is no reason not to
prepare today? Terrorist attacks could easily cause as much disruption
to supply infrastructure as the projected Y2K glitch could cause in

PS It's only cause I love you big lugs that I am saying this; now get
off your arse and do it: and thats an order.. THAT IS ALL.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:39 - ID#347235)
Fainally had time to read some of the material you mentioned, some of it is quite sinister but remember Congress CAN AND WILL overturn EOs that are clearly not in the best interest of US IF THEY ARE BROUGHT TO the attention of COngress, so keep broadcasting along with everyone else I mentioned before.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:41 - ID#35571)
They unprint it?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:44 - ID#35571)
Correct me if I am wrong, but I understand the German banks are largely insured against their potential Russian losses.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:45 - ID#317193)
tol1...gulp ta ya too.

Gullom...which way you pulling on that stick/


(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:46 - ID#213265)
@the scene
PMF -- Yes, it DOES require a close eye upon it. Gold not busting lower as the yen plummets could very well become its break with the link to the yen, meaning that demand for gold is swinging more to the positive, and 'damn' the yen! We'll watch together, yes? In the meantime, it never hurts to pick up more physical, and if one is a commodity trader, it is easy enough to set a sell stop below the range or a buy stop above the current range if nothing else.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:47 - ID#190411)
Your post about the DNA sample was one of the funnier moments associated with the sordid mess. Repost might be in order.
Goldstocks are still reducing their losses.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:47 - ID#57232)
Market creeping up?
Gollum! You kept the wings on, and we are pulling up a bit. Now, can you slow us down a little? Just about the right time for the PPT and the dipsters to move in. Or -- are they to wait till Monday?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:47 - ID#286230)
is living down to the reputation the main line media try to pin on him. Headlines from 1974 and stories fron this week. Phooey

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:47 - ID#333127)
There are alot of elements in phase for a big move in gold,it only needs ??? to get the ball rolling, IMHO.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:49 - ID#365216)
build up cash reserves and bullion slowly over next 18 months
Besides accumulating bullion PMs, I would suggest quietly building
a Y2K cash reserve simply by withdrawing 5-10 percent of your paycheck
each week and letting it accumulate in a safe depository readilly
accessible only by you or your family. Even $50 a week for the next
16 months = $200X16= $3200 which should keep you going for two or
more months. If you plan to need more, withdraw more accordingly.

I can't emphasize enough that guns and gold will ALWAYs have intrinsic
value and can always be sold, long term water ( costs practically
nothing NOW ) and long term food can always be consumed for nutrition,
and stored household goods can always be used/rotated when near
expiration. Why risk being without when there is no reason not to
prepare today? Terrorist attacks could easily cause as much disruption
to supply infrastructure as the projected Y2K glitch could cause in

PS It's only cause I love you big lugs that I am saying this; now get
off your arse and do it: and thats an order.. THAT IS ALL.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:51 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Rube -- To be seen as another safer place for investment. It 'may' be beginning!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:54 - ID#286230)
Sick US Eldery vote with their feet

(Fri Aug 21 1998 13:58 - ID#36977)
My apologies for misspelling your name, and also that I missed your joke. Back to lurking . . .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:01 - ID#28861)
Vengold/Lihry news

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:01 - ID#35571)
Can't pull up too fast at this speed. Easy does it. Once we begin to gain a little altitude and scrub off some of the airspeed we can bring her up more sharply. The last half hour or so ought to be interesting.

Wait till Monday? No, I don't think so. You don't even want to think about what happens Monday....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:02 - ID#57232)
Yes sir!
General: Good advice. Paper money in the markets is virtual paper money -- funny money. Paper money ( the non-plastic kind ) with Washington, Franklin of Jefferson on it -- may very well be in scarce supply. Probably just as valuable as gold during a crisis, given the inertia of the system to accept gold as real money. I am quietly collecting some cash, despite spouse's objections. She is on the alert, however, now that her relatives in Canada have been hurting a bit with the exchange rates.

Mexico's behavior today is a little too close for comfort. This is no longer 12 thousand miles away where only the Kitcoites and Jin worry.

If you think we have border problems now with Mexico, wait 12 months.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:02 - ID#410198)
RETIRED SOLDIER....With all due respect CONGRESS is the problem do you know how many socialist are
card carrying members....they call themselves progressives but they are still red......... you fought them once remember

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:04 - ID#343171)
traders: sell puts and buy calls

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:05 - ID#35571)
DOW -199
Up about 83 points from the low, altitude building, airspeed falling...

Mountain Goat
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:05 - ID#35087)
Equity Investor Awareness (Oxymoron?)
On another BBS regarding current political events, I found a gem...

One guy says "sell", since he thinks the market is going to crash.
Another gentleman replys that he will buy *anything* the first
gentleman is selling, because:

"...I do stand to gain roughly 250 profit! Hey, that is the
way the stock market works!"

And he goes on to say that he expects to be very rich by Jan 2, 2000.

Yikes. I *KNOW* this wasn't any of you, so I felt safe in
reposting it here to make a point.
The point? The average investor is almost worth a good laugh.
Until you realize the losses these folks may be in for.

The saddest part? You can't tell 'em ANYTHING. They *know* they'll
make money. Been doing it for YEARS.

Ahh well.

I guess this is the modern-day "survival of the fittest" at work.

No more hunting buffalo. No more dodging lions.
Now, it just comes down to knowing a bull from a bear.


MG ( Got Awareness? Go Gold! )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:05 - ID#242325)
A British view on Mideast developments.

writes Robert Fisk in The Independent

FOUR days ago, as President Bill Clinton was testifying to Kenneth
Starr about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky, foreign diplomats
in Pakistan were told that "all foreigners" in Afghanistan were in

European embassy staff suspected that the United States, with the help
of the Pakistani authorities, was about to assault Osama bin Laden,
the Saudi dissident opposed to Washington's continued presence in
Saudi Arabia. One foreign embassy official in Islamabad told me the
sources were American.

Now we know why. But the results are likely to be incalculable.

President Clinton says that Mr Bin Laden declared war on the United
States. Now Mr Clinton has declared war on him - which is exactly what
Mr Bin Laden, guilty or otherwise of the American embassy bombings,
will have wanted.

Mr Clinton wants to destroy Mr Bin Laden. Now Bin Laden will want to
destroy Mr Clinton. He can count on the support of millions of Muslims
who will never be persuaded that the strikes against Afghanistan and
Sudan were anything but a cynical ploy to distract attention from Mr
Clinton's sexual adventures. They are also aware that the camp in
Khowst, in Paktia province, which the Americans bombed, was originally
set up by the CIA to train Afghan - and Arab - guerrillas in their war
against the Soviet army. For, in the 1980s, Mr Bin Laden and his men
were regarded as "freedom fighters" rather than "terrorists" and were
encouraged to use British-made Blowpipe anti-aircraft missiles against
the Russians.

Mr Bin Laden demands the withdrawal of US troops from his native
country of Saudi Arabia - some of whose officials give him
considerable support. None of this, of course, was finding its way
into the American news reports from Washington last night.

Of one thing we can be sure, that in the coming days the story will
change. We will hear of civilian casualties. We will ask why Mr Bin
Laden survived. We may even hear of secret deals - rumoured in the
Middle East these past five days - between Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and
the United States that would prepare the ground for the lifting of UN
sanctions against Libya in return for its support in the war against
Palestinian "terror": the story that Abu Nidal, the cruellest of
Palestinian militants, has been secretly sent from Tripoli to Cairo in
a semi-comatose state, persists.

Egypt, it is said in the Arab world, has demanded action against its
domestic enemies - which may be why the United States helped extradite
five Egyptians from Albania to Egypt and bombed Sudan.

And what was the Khowst base that Mr Clinton bombed in Afghanistan?
When I saw Mr Bin Laden last year - ascetic, cautious, intelligent and
very ruthless - we met at a moun-tain camp near Khowst. He possessed -
a few metres from his tent - a massive air-raid shelter, cut into the
rock of a mountainside, protection against anything bar nuclear attack
and built during the height of his war against the Soviet army. Was
this the "base" that Mr Clinton thinks he bombed?

Sudan was bombed, too. But was it not Sudan which, at America's
request, ordered Mr Bin Laden out of Khartoum in 1996? Was it not
Sudan which handed over Carlos the Jackal to French intelligence
agents in August 1994? Was Sudan - a ramshackle dictatorship if ever
there was one - really making precursor chemical weapons?

Meanwhile, the very word "terrorist" will incite the fury of Arabs.
Yes, bombing embassies is an act of terrorism. But so is murdering
Muslim worshippers in a Hebron mosque or assassinating an Israeli
prime minister - carried out by Israelis but never called "terrorism".
Double standards will be on the lips of every Arab this morning.

And if the word "terrorism" is now little more than racist terminology
against Arabs, it also serves to silence the question "Why?"
Last night not a single hint came from Washington as to why Mr Bin
Laden - now taking the place of Abu Nidal, Colonel Gaddafi, Ayatollah
Khomeini and Colonel Nasser in our book of hate - should loathe
America. No suggestion that he wants US troops to leave Islam's
holiest land.

No clue that he was obsessed - as he still is - with the Israeli
massacre of 106 Lebanese civilians at the UN base at Qana in 1996, a
slaughter ( the Israelis said it was a mistake ) for which he also
blames the United States.

So President Clinton is declaring war on "terrorism", is he? If only
he would, the Arabs will say today. And if only he would start by
seizing the two leading "terrorists" in Europe's own backyard: General
Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadjic, responsible for the massacre of
tens of thousands of Muslims.

But they are not the sort of "terrorist" Mr Clinton is looking for.
Instead, he has decided to assault his enemies with their own weapons
of violence. And Americans, as well as Arabs, are likely to pay the

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:06 - ID#57232)
Mondays tend to be bad
Gollum: I am having palpitations about Monday too. Spouse is 100% out of the markets because she followed my advice better than I did.

By the way -- if this keeps up -- just imagine what might happen when everyone has a hangover after Labor Day.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:06 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Robnoel -- What happens to the premium on physical after gold has 'gathered its legs'? Thanks

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:08 - ID#333127)
to Eldorado
I'm concerned with what gov's will do when backed in a corner, say Japan, maybe talk or actual buying of gold with dollars. IMHO that would please us all.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:09 - ID#35571)
DOW -179
The auditorium doors have burst open and the first few happy shorts are breathlessly rushing out for the weekend...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:13 - ID#373284)
and has anyone asked the question...Why do people become terrorists? What drove
them to such activities...and as my Father taught me...what you think is meaningless...WHY you think what you do means everything...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:13 - ID#35571)
Actually, I see Monday and Tuesday being pretty quiet ( depnding on what might happen over the weekend ) while everyone sits around seeing if the world has ended or not. Then I think we begin the great labor day rally.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:18 - ID#229207)
Gollum: nope, they don't unprint it
they'll spend it, most likely. Unless we're in a depression, in which case they won't. Or the extra cash can kick off a staflation, especially if we're raised interest rates to get Asia to buy our debt again, which they will have sold by then, which is what caused the recession in the first place.

It's fun to prognostocate.

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:19 - ID#24135)
Im just trying to get this straight ..
To all ..
Look Ive been out of the country for a long time ..
Is a BJ REALLY not sex ?? Have things changed that
much ?? Is more kind of like shaking hands ??
I may come back for a visit.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:26 - ID#266105)
another protein-based peripheral

I may come back for a visit.


Too late JD. : )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:26 - ID#343171)
since 12est the dow has bottomed and is stairstepping upwards, probably a result of completed squaring away of options, allowing the 'boys' and the PPT to run up the market, damage control. A replay of Aug. 10th on the charts.
I think they are like Custer, on the hill, off their mounts, just about ready to shoot the horses for cover, maybe after Labor Day and a week of a failed rally. Then it is a massacre as the buy-the-dippers turn into the sell-it-all panic crowd.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:26 - ID#33184)
Solar Eclipse, Elliott Wave Alert

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:26 - ID#410198)
Eldorado....I can only go on past experiance...major suppliers can push premiums to whatever they gold could be $300.00 thats OK for paper traders however physical buyers have only one option either pay the premium and walk with the product or leave empty 1980 the premium on Krugs when gold was trading at $675.00 was $75.00.....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:28 - ID#252127)

To buy US Treasuries when the outlook is shaky, Greenspan reinforces this with his ( media ) announced personnal portfolio.

Only without government paid ( fiat ) interest supported by the taxes on your labor and gains will gold play its rightful role and be unhampered by the speculative image they ( the FED ) have cast upon it.

Best bet for gold is to dump the Federal Reserve System, then investors will demand well run corporations from which to earn their interest and dividends. This will be better for everyone, including the bondos.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:31 - ID#242325)
George Ure who predicted Dow 8300 by August 21 also projected a rally to 8700 by the end of August/early September. Then the real smash begins.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:31 - ID#335190)
Canadian markets @ Banks & Commodities & Risk
August 21, 1998

Canadian dollar, stock markets tumble

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - The Canadian dollar dropped below 65 U.S. cents for the first time ever and domestic equity markets tumbled Friday as economic concerns at home and abroad sent investors into retreat.

A fresh bout of speculative selling pounded the Canadian currency below its previous record low of C$1.5355 ( US$0.6513 ) set August 7, sparking more stop-loss selling.

The Bank of Canada stepped in to defend the embattled currency, buying Canadian for U.S. dollars from around C$1.5360 ( US$0.6510 ) , but this failed to halt the the slide.

The Toronto Stock Exchange, Canada's largest, was hit hard from the opening bell by worries about the fallout from Russia's economic crisis, crumbling Asian shares, a bleak outlook for bank earnings and the chronically weak Canadian dollar.

By early afternoon, the key TSE 300 Composite Index was down 167.71 points, or 2.61 percent, at 6253.30 after plunging 196.01 points, or 3.05 percent, to 6225.30 around midday.

Canadian markets looked to the U.S. where the Dow Jones Industrial average fell 229.15 points, or 2.66 percent, to 8382.26 early afternoon.

"I think people are realizing that equities are a little more risky than they thought. Maybe it's not a wonderful new era of permanent political stability, never-ending corporate earnings growth, never-ending rises in stock prices," said Michael Metz, a managing director at CIBC Oppenheimer.

"And I think the risks are being dramatized by what's going on in the former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia and Latin America."

Russia's acute economic troubles have special significance in Canada because many analysts fear Russia may dump already depressed commodities at fire-sale prices to raise funds.

Equity exchanges and the Canadian currency are both heavily influenced by commodity prices because Canada's economy is highly resource-dependent.

Fears about higher rates and lower bank earnings crushed the financial services subgroup. Royal Bank of Canada fell C$4.30 or 5.83 percent to C$69.50 on 2.4 million shares while Bank of Montreal lost C$4.10 or 6.05 percent, to C$63.65. Toronto-Dominion Bank shed C$3.60 or 7.32 percent to C$45.55 on volume of 1.91 million shares.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:31 - ID#242325)
George Ure who predicted Dow 8300 by August 21 also forecast a rally to 8700 by the end of August/early September. Then the real smash begins.

Mountain Goat
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:31 - ID#35087)
Gold for breakfast?
Sitting watching CNN this morning.
Wanting to find out about the bombings.
Commercials came on. MUTE!
I glance at the screen, and I see GOLD!!
MOUNTIES overflowing! Joyous Gold!
I nearly drooled on my wheaties. ( Ok, they were honey clusters or some damn thing )

And the announcer ( RJ? ) says something Kitco-ish about the intrinsic
value of gold vs paper...

Made my morning. Especially when CCN is giving you a boatload of bad
news, the DOW is tanking, missiles are flying, flags are burning, etc.

Thanks Monex, for raising awareness for all of us! ( Bart included )


MG ( Go Gold! It's not just for breakfast anymore! )

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:34 - ID#33184)
Spin Cycle
How about this snippet:-

The State Department also has a way with language. It describes Uganda, where Yoweri Museveni has held unelected power for 12 years as a "uni-party democracy," but excoriates Cuba as a "one-party totalitarian state."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:39 - ID#35571)
DOW -168
I dunno. We dipped a little lower than I expected, so I'm not sure if we can get it ALL the way back up, but then I expected it to finish a little down today.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:40 - ID#227238)
A little tilling in Mozel's garden.
From Francis Liebold's 1863 treatise: "A Government of United States Armies in the Field." Or, General Order 100.

Art. 5. Martial Law should be less stringent in places and countries fully occupied and fairly conquered. Much greater severity may be exercised in places or regions where actual hostilities exist, or are expected and must be prepared for. Its most complete sway is allowed - even in the commander's own country - when face to face with the enemy, because of the absolute necessities of the case, and of the paramount duty to defend the country against invasion.

To save the country is paramount to all other considerations.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:42 - ID#246224)
Typically a 'terrorist' is one who at one time was an activist/idealist, but became disenchanted with their sense of powerlessness in the current situation. This is why some of the 'peace' activists in the 1960's turned into 'Weathermen', a group which used distructive force in the USA to resist the Vietnam war. I think you will find that most 'terrorists' are idealists who have found that change didn't happen fast enough ( or in the proper direction ) for their taste.

It doesn't last very long, though, because being at war, even only a personal war, is emotionally exhausting . Its much easier to join a nation's military or paramilitary, rather than to wage war alone. Also the supply issues and vulnerability to discovery increase as operations enlarge. Terrorist activities really only work in secret. The secret is hard to keep. And when it is out , then you get dead really fast. It is also my sense that terrorism is staffed by the simple, stupid and ignorant. They never are very successful over a long period of time.

Incident a few years ago. In New Jersey a State trouper pulled a car over. A Middle Easterner was driving a rented car .. with a gym bag in the back seat, open. In it was a home made bomb very visible to the Trouper. You know the rest of the story ( ?! ) . Arrested on terrorism charges.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:42 - ID#35571)
Almost like on the chart, hunh?

Mountain Goat
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:44 - ID#35087)
Whaddya think? Day traders getting out in the last few minutes?
Maybe 200 down for the day? Or are you keeping the nose up?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:47 - ID#189268)
Gollum/Dow close
With Russia ready to make announcements about their battered rouble on Monday and the finacial system in meltdown mode, with Venezuela effectively devaluing their currency and all latam bourses plumetting, who would want to be a holder of stocks over the week-end? What happens in Hong Kong where the HKMA has been buying stocks for 4 days in a row? I see a stampede at the close approaching the lows of the day and purhaps even -300+.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:49 - ID#433172)
Follow the leader
I hear Israeli intelligence provided the information for our powerful and astute governments recent "anti-terrorist" action. Seemed a bit strange to me they were invitied to the who-done-it party.

I'm perswaded by experience that AFTER violence is employed you should feel SAFER, otherwise it's a mistake. Thats why it's hardly ever indicated even tho it has it's place.

What's the limit on the sale of T bills? How much money will they absorb?

A satchel nuclear device in a big city would change our world huh? Thru our stupidity we are entering a period of Aurator says...what you sow you reap.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:51 - ID#372228)
If I read your comment correctly, and the $US were devalued by 50% the following would happen: Any property that you own would be worth 2 times as $100,000 home would now be worth $200,000 and if you had a mortgage on that house for $50,000, it would be much EASIER to repay that mortgage by a factor of 2, ASSUMING THAT YOU HAD YOUR ASSETS IN SOMETHING THAT WAS NOT TIED TO THE CURRENCY THAT YOU WERE LIVING IN...THE $US. So, like in Russia...if you were holding 100,000 rubles worth of gold before the devaluation, after the devaluation, your gold would be worth 200,000 rubles...and yes this is inflationary. However, if you did not own gold, and the currency you were in, devalued, you as a citizen would have to work twice as hard to have the same standard of living.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:51 - ID#35571)
DOW -140
Boy wasn't that a RUSH down there with all the tree limbs flashing past?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:52 - ID#253288)
re. value Liberty $20 -- 1) 1875; 2) 1903
Robnoel, Numismaticians -- Just got a call from a pawnbrokeress friend of mine ( no, I'm not Raskalnikov ) ; has two $20 gold Liberties ( noted above ) in "fine" condition, wants $325 apiece.

Would you buy them?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:53 - ID#35571)
Just all discounted past history. It will take something NEW to move this train off the track.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:57 - ID#35571)
@Mountain Goat
I think just about every sell program in the world that was going to be triggered did so this morning as the day traders jumped in on the short bandwagon after seeing the overseas markets all red last night.

All we have left are hopefull shorts who will probably close their postions as we wind up the afternoon.

Unless, of course, Clinton decides to attack Canada or something.

Mountain Goat
(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:59 - ID#35087)
I agree. I'm making NO PREDICTIONS HERE... but with our
incredibly porous border with Mexico, anyone could smuggle
anything across, I think. A suitcase nuke? Easily, I'd say.

And if you wanted to hurt the USA, where would you hit us?
I'd guess Wall St. - Manhattan. The US is built on it's finances.

Of course simple revenge would dictate DC... But that might be
too obvious, and we'd probably recover quicker from that.

Of course, there are some who'd say a hit in DC would make things better,
but I won't argue that point.

So, with the recent reprisals, are we safer, or less safe?
I'm sure we'll have an answer, but I won't begin to guess when.


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 14:59 - ID#35571)
DOW -126
Air control, air control, this is Gollum requesting permission to proceed across country.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:02 - ID#373284)
Allen, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and while I agree with much you have written I
feel that perhaps I should have asked a better question, within that I mean that people that feel they have no options are many times put on the wrong path...killing innocents is a crime which falls below the worst that we as human beings can evolve into...

As a species we appear to be pre-occupied with destruction as opposed to creation...thank goodness for fine tequila...peace...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:02 - ID#24135)
John Disney__A (Im just trying to get this straight ..) ID#24135:
No problem but don't come visit me.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:04 - ID#189268)
The psychology of the market has changed. This is a bear market. This week's trading confirms it for me. A 300 point releif rally is wiped out in the same week. This is not bull market material. The trend in the market has changed and the profit warnings that will be coming out should be the final nail. This market will be significantly lower in the weeks and months ahead. What will make it worse is the panic that will ensue when all these novice investors finally realize that buy-the-dips is finacial suicide. Have you noticed the number of ads for home equity loans recently? I see this as anectodal evidence that these guys realize the party is over for them. Soon we will see ads for dealing with personal bankruptcy. Finally one "bright" analyst said this week that institutional investors have been selling heavily this week while the "genius" retail crowd continues to buy. The train you mention is full of cattle heading for the slaughterhouse.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:06 - ID#224363)
I've snipped because this is very important
Major credit scare rattles U.S. bond markets

By Apu Sikri

NEW YORK, Aug 21 ( Reuters ) - Fear of a deterioration in the creditworthiness of borrowers around the globe is spawning a
sharp sell-off in U.S. corporate bonds and other assets of a magnitude not seen since the Orange County crisis in 1994, analysts

The yield spread on U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds widened about 18 basis points over comparable Treasuries Friday in ``one of the largest single one-day
moves ever,'' said Curtis Shambaugh, corporate bond strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

U.S. dollar swap spreads, a measure of the borrowing rate of a double-A-rated corporation, blew out more than 20 basis points to levels not seen since the financial
scandal that bankrupted Orange County, Calif. four years ago.

And emerging market bonds, which have been caught in a downward spiral for the last week, lost anywhere from two to 12 points in price.

On Friday Venezuela loosened its grip on its currency and Russia's parliament called for President Boris Yeltsin to resign, blaming him for a painful economic slide.

The sell-off prompted a flight to quality that drove the Treasury's 30-year bond higher by nearly two points and its yield to a record low.

The markets are responding to ``increasing signs that economies are slowing everywhere,'' said Jeff Bahrenburg, fixed-income strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co.
``We have been highlighting some drops in lending in the U.S.'' and a slowdown in money supply growth, he said.

The World Bank's 10-year bond, a benchmark blue chip corporate bond issue in the global markets, registered a 14 basis points widening in yield spread to 50
basis points on the day.

``There is a violent flight to quality as emerging markets turn lower,'' said James Keller, portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. ( PIMCO ) .

Meanwhile, U.S. dollar swap spreads also saw one of their largest one-day widenings ever. The 10-year swap spread blew out to 86 basis points from Thursday's
close of 63 basis points.

The heavy use of leverage to fund many bond investments is exacerbating the selloff, analysts said. ``This is the largest margin call on fixed-income assets in history,''
said Shambaugh at CSFB.

``People who have been long ( credit ) spread product on margin or using repo are being asked to come up with cash. If they can't sell something either illiquid or low
price, they are going to sell something else,'' Shambaugh said.

``This sell-off is now moving from the weakest government-type debt to investment-grade debt,'' he said.

To make matters worse, many investors with long positions in credit bonds such as corporates and emerging markets have been short government bonds as an
interest rate hedge. ``Now as they cover spread product, they are buying back guvvies ( government bonds ) ,'' said Shambaugh.

This is exaggerating price movements and driving Treasuries higher, analysts said.

``I think the market is being overwhelmed by events in emerging markets ... which potentially have ramifications for U.S. companies like the Fords and the GMs of
the world,'' said Eugene Fullam, high-grade corporate bond strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.

The recent sell-off in emerging markets began two weeks ago amid a flight out of Russian assets amid a deepening financial crisis in the sprawling republic.

With many Asian economies still mired in economic slumps that began with large-scale currency devaluations more than a year ago, economists are concerned about
a global slowdown that could finally wash up on U.S. shores.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:07 - ID#410198)
jonesy....considering current bid is $420.00 for VF Libs don't walk RUN and get them

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:08 - ID#253288)
@ Robnoel
Yes, sir! Thank you!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:09 - ID#343171)
'just trying to get this straight' was what monica was trying to do with clintons willie, given paula jones description of the bent member

a bj is sex unless you are fawned upon by leftist media and brain-dead soccer moms, then anything is forgiven because 'he cares about us',
it also helps to have completely biased polling to keep the flock where you want them

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:11 - ID#197289)
Chart (Gollum)
Great Chart!
Thx for posting the URL.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:16 - ID#57232)
Allen ( USA ) : I see alot of truth in your description of a terrorist. There are a few smart educated terrorists, like 'Carlos the Jackal', I think he was called -- man of many disguises. Not sure I have the name right. But -- once his cover was blown -- he was finished. Unfortunately there are many to step in the shoes of each one that is neutralized, until someone finally realizes that something needs to be done about the underlying problem. I was amazed regarding the commments by bin Saad about the Serb warcrimes tribunal not getting the mass murderers quickly enough.

There is another problem with terrorism. It never works quite the way the terrorist wants it to. Innocent people get killed, and the target never really gets the message anyway. I must admit I still do not have a clue why Arab terrorists want to target the US. Not very effective to target the US to alter our foreign policy. Now - nuclear blackmail, or presidential blackmail, or well chosen political contributions -- that might work.

We still do have something working for us in this country -- for now anyway. We have so many freedoms and opportunities it is hard for terrorism to take root. A terrorist in the Middle East may link up with a group in the US, and find that his/her US connections are not behaving as planned. What is the point of terrorism if you can get what you want, anyway?

Our real problems with terrorism in the US will be when we get really paranoid about security, and start detaining everyone with the wrong clothing or appearance. And -- when the 'land of opportunity' ceases to be one. I have learned over the years that conspiracies are not necessary. Natural cycles in human behavior do quite well as it is.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:17 - ID#25171)
15:40 will be the time
At 15:40 OEX cash expiry balance will be announced on bloomberg terminals. If the balance points to selling pressure it is likely that the dow will loose 60 points ( and the reverse is also true )
Gollum : I think the german banks are fully exposed.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:17 - ID#35571)
I quite agree with you. This IS a bear market. The broad market has been declining since the end of March with a little rally thrown in here and there. The trend is DOWN. And will continue down.

The big "crash" in '87 was a dip in a bull market. And the highs we saw in mid July were just the tip of the summer rally ( which was a bear market rally this year ) .

There will be more bad things happening, I am sure, but each bad thing gets discounted and needs to be replaced with some fresh new bad thing to keep the bear fires burning.

This does not mean I think it's all behind us. It means I think all of THAT is behind us, but there is more coming. Yes sir, there is more coming.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:18 - ID#229207)
Dow extends losses, eyes emerging market crisis

Dow falls to new session lows, down 280 points to 8331
amid that snowballing emerging market crisis is hitting closer
to home as Canada, Mexico come under pressure. Jitters also
over President Clinton's credibility, threat of increased
terrorism after Thursday strikes. Nasdaq off 65, 3.5 pct, at
1767. S&P500 off 36 at 1055. Long bond yield tumbles to record
low at 5.39 pct, up 1-27/32 as investors run to safe haven of

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:19 - ID#229207)
Mexico's peso ends at historic closing low

MEXICO CITY, Aug 21 ( Reuters ) - Mexico's peso ended off
session lows but at a historic closing low on Friday, battered
by fears Asia and Russia's crises were spreading to Latin

The peso's key 48-hour contract ended down 43.7 centavos to
9.72/9.78 per dollar -- after sinking to historic trading lows
of 9.92/9.94 per dollar at midday.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:20 - ID#373284)
God bless Dr. Steven Hanke...
yup...wherever you are Sir, a mighty gulp and toast to your well being...from the Island that is Long...ya just gotta love the guy for telling it like it is...uh huh...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:20 - ID#34191)
y2k kooks, question...
How do we know that the power will go out? It's one of the biggest problems we'll have IMO. I need some facts to support my opinion. Thanks.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:21 - ID#229207)
Global Upheaval

Hammers Stocks
And Buoys Bonds


Stocks skidded Friday as
political and economic turmoil
overseas sparked a stampede to the
safe haven of U.S. Treasurys. The
dollar rose against the yen but
remained steady against the mark.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average was down 209 points to
8403 in midafternoon trading after
dropping 283 points at its low. The
industrials slumped 81.87, or 0.94%,
The broad Standard & Poor's
500-stock index retreated 26.40 to
1065.20 and the New York Stock
Exchange Composite Index lost
13.65 to 532.70. Investors continued
to abandon smaller issues amid the
volatility. The Nasdaq Composite
Index, heavily weighted with
technology and small-capitalization
stocks, tumbled 53.70 to 1778.70,
while the Russell 2000 small-stock
index dropped 10.60 to 391.10.
Investors were badly shaken by
torrent of troubling news from
around the world, including talk of a
banking crisis in Russia, another
high-profile bankruptcy in Japan,
uncertainty about the stability of
Venezuela's currency, and
Thursday's decision by President
Clinton to launch a series of military
strikes against alleged terrorist
targets in Sudan and Afghanistan.
Friday's so-called
double-witching, the monthly
expiration of stock and stock-index
options contracts, added to the
Financial stocks were
hammered once again as
speculation surrounding Venezuela's
currency, the bolivar, raised fears of
an emerging market currency crisis.
Although Venezuelan officials have
denied any intention to devalue their
currency, many worry that slumping
oil prices and a widening fiscal
deficit will force the country's
government to devalue.
In addition, Wall Street will have
to deal with the fallout from
Thursday's U.S. military air strikes.
Sudanese demonstrators stormed
the empty U.S. Embassy compound
in Khartoum Thursday, while
Pakistan said Friday that one of the
missiles the U.S. aimed at
neighboring Afghanistan Thursday
landed on its soil, killing at least five
"The market's got so much on its
plate this morning and it's having a
tough time digesting it all," said
Michael Lyons, a senior trader at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.
"People don't want to stay long just
in case something flares up over the
weekend. There's a feeling that
none of these problems are going to
go away very soon, so everybody's
just extremely nervous."
Turmoil in the overseas markets
sent investors flocking to the
perceived safety of U.S. Treasurys.
At its high early Friday, the
bellwether 30-year bond jumped
roughly 1 3/4 points, pushing its
yield to 5.39% -- its lowest level
since the Treasury Department
began regular 30-year bond
auctions in February 1977.
It later moderated in afternoon
trading to show a yield of 5.42%,
well below the federal-funds
interest rate -- the level at which
banks lend to each other overnight
-- of 5.5%.
Flight-to-quality buying also
boosted the dollar, which climbed in
early trading amid news that
Japanese general trading company
Okura & Co. filed for bankruptcy.
Traders said fears of an impending
currency intervention to support the
yen were also subsiding.
World-wide, stocks plummeted
in dollar terms. The Dow Jones
World Stock Index fell 5.12 to
179.42 as of 2 p.m. EDT
In major market action:
Stocks plunged. On the Big
Board, volume stood at 510 million
shares, with 2,570 stocks declining
and just 500 advancing.
Bonds soared. The 30-year
bellwether Treasury bond was up
nearly 1 3/8 point, or $13.75 per
$1,000 bond. Its yield, which moves
in the opposite direction of its price,
dropped to 5.42%.
The dollar was mixed. It was at
1.7966 marks and 145.10 yen,
compared with 1.7991 marks and
143.14 yen late Thursday in New

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:23 - ID#373284)
Cowgirl_A, Namaste'...compliments of the fin that shares...gulp to ya
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PresentMoment - BULK HERBS & Natural Healing Site
PhytoPharmica - WOW! Super Suppliment List - Hard to find!
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(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:23 - ID#402148)
XAU @ 66 on close.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:24 - ID#410198)
John Disney.....Clinton just signed an Executive Order 13098 Blocking property of UNITA and
Prohibeting certain transactions with respect to UNITA.....raising the hammer and sickle over the white house can only be a matter of time

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:26 - ID#24135)
Do I take that to mean ..
CoolJing ..
That there isnt much point my coming
back for a visit ??

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:26 - ID#350179)
Nice Flight Gollum - bring 'er in gentle-like
Gold is on recovery list

Muslim leader killed in southern Russia

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:29 - ID#266105)

Gollum : I think the german banks are fully exposed.


The taxpayers are on the hook for Russian lending by
German banks. The loans were in the main government-guaranteed.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:30 - ID#229207)
The Wall Street Journal online site is starting to read like Vronsky's site
The psychology of this market is changing before our eyes. Every day, average folks who thought they were making money in the stock market because they were so smart are starting to think that maybe they aren't so smart after all. Just as happened last weekend, this weekend the 401K and Mutual Fund crowd considers the downside risk. A bunch decide to get out Monday, more last weekend. Maybe if they get out now they just break even. That's not so bad, now is it?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:33 - ID#242325)
Looks like the market made a short-term low today. A powerful rally likely next week. But we will not come near making new highs. Another great selling/shorting opportunity

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:34 - ID#242325)
Looks like the market made a short-term low today. A powerful rally likely next week. But we will not come near making new highs. Another great selling/shorting opportunity

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:41 - ID#208393)
Russia pawns its gold reserves
LONDON, Aug 21 ( Reuters ) - Russia may have used 200 tonnes of
reserve gold as collateral for a loan to raise much-needed cash to
support the rouble, Merrill Lynch's Ted Arnold said on Friday.

``The Russians, according to our information, have done a form of gold swap with Swiss, American, and German banks in recent weeks,'' Arnold, first vice-president at the investment bank, told Reuters.

He said Russia might have used as much as 200 tonnes of its 520 tonnes of reserves for a collateralised loan.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:42 - ID#57232)
Worldwide credit panic?
All: Please review carefully PMF's post several posts back. This is probably the most important post of the last several days. I do not know how frequently a financial panic like this happens, but I do not recall reading about anything like this in the Oct 97 collapse.

You may be interested to know that I was easily able to get through to Fidelity, and sell about 50% of my long position in the market. Bought some FDPMX at the same time, guessing that a credit crunch might be just the thing to get the dollar moving down, and gold up. I may regret having any virtual money in the markets -- even precious metals -- but it is hard to believe that they can go down much more, short of an outright US equity market crash. And -- I don't believe that will happen -- bear market yes -- crash no -- this year anyway. A run on the US dollar, or a gold rally is much more likely first.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:48 - ID#252150)
Still chilly@I tested the au mkt waters this morn & while I found them still chilly
I took a deep breath & waded in up to my knees by buying some PDG & SJD.
PDG closed right on it's 50 day MA yesterday. I am encouraged that the xau hed up as well as it did in the face of a big move down by the JY. Before too long there won't be anywhere else to hide & au will shine. At least to 295. ( smiley )

John Disney__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:48 - ID#24135)
That was in the cards ..
Robnoel ..
But I think this has been done
several times already anyway ..
Unita's fate depends on Kabila ..
inversly proportional. If Dos
Santos tries to defend Kabila from
Tutzi and blows it .. Unita gets
new allies and a safe haven ..
Dos Santos gets a shorter lifespan.
I hope it goes that way. Dont forget
.. J. Helms is Unita big daddy.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:54 - ID#350179)
XAU Down
61.85 when I checked....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:56 - ID#288186)
Only have time 4 this one post: COMEX WAREHOUSE TOTALS...

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 21

Gold 896,914 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 78,441,615 + 220,449 troy ounces
Copper 58,160 + 163 short tons
*************************************************************************It looks as though these 220k oz's were added to the eligibles. It's not that significant of an amount to change things, in my opinion...
I think next week could be very interesting for both the PM's and the
stock market, don't you suppose? See ya! BBML Foxman

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:59 - ID#252150)
A BJ is'nt sex because sex results in procreation unless artificially interfered with.
What is the difference between a job & a wife after 10 yrs? After 10 yrs the job still sucks.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:59 - ID#20912)
silver prices
I'am new to investing in metals and I just purchased 7000oz of sivler at
5.35 an oz. Should I expect to see a quick profit or is this a more long term investment? I know no one is postive what silver will do but you proberly have a better quess what's going to happen in the near future better than I will. Thanks....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 15:59 - ID#229207)
Lenders are sleeping poorly. The entire premise of consumer and corporate lending policies for the past ten years, and especially the past two years, is the extrapolation of recent earnings and income growth rates. A guy with a 6 year car loan and no job or a guy with a $3000/mo. mortgage and no job will walk away. Even with very high employment, bankrupcies are high due to extreme leverage. A very small increase in joblessness now will cause a disproportionate number of defaults relative to past recessionary periods.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:06 - ID#410198)
silver prices.....if you have it in hand no problem if its leverage bend over .....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:06 - ID#252150)
A BJ@For many a fond memory, particularly the uptight, hypocritical old farts
that sit in congress & are so indignant about BC's BJs. What is the difference between a job & a wife after 10 yrs? After 10 yrs the job still sucks.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:12 - ID#33184)
CNNfn Poll Results - on what to do now ...
CNNfn Poll Results

1. As an investor, you are:
total responses to this question: 4983

3. Holding: 55.39%
1. Buying: 24.14%
4. Seeking a safe haven: 10.27%
2. Selling: 10.19%

2. If you are seeking a safe haven, you are turning to:
total responses to this question: 2396

1. Bonds: 55.09%
4. Currency markets: 20.83%
2. Gold or other precious metals: 15.28%
3. Commodities: 5.05%
5. Collectibles: 3.76%

3. In your opinion, the market:
total responses to this question: 4985

1. Will rebound: 44.91%
3. Continue to slide: 26.32%
2. Level off: 20.02%
4. Plunge dramatically: 8.75%

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:12 - ID#267344)
the U.S. has

Speaking in Murmansk on 21 August, Russian President Boris Yeltsin condemned U.S. air strikes in Afghanistan and Sudan, ITAR- TASS reported. "My attitude is indeed negative as it would be to any act of terrorism, military interference, failure to solve a problem through talks. I am outraged and I denounce this." Yeltsin added that it was "indecent" that he was not informed in advance. Yeltsin's press spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, appeared to be less critical: he suggested that with regard to terrorism, Russia and the U.S. are "in the same boat," and he reaffirmed that the September summit will take place as scheduled. Communist chief Gennadii Zyuganov said that the U.S. has "in fact become a terrorist state." And Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said that the U.S. action should lead Russia to change its foreign policy and cancel the summit. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced it will issue a formal statement later on 21 August.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:13 - ID#287279)
The Man
The Man will do ANYTHING to divert attention from himself to to keep his power.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:15 - ID#39857)
Umm good one James.
Whats the difference between Monica Lewinsky and Greg Liganis.?
Monica doesnt swallow.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:17 - ID#43349)
This is your captain speaking...
I hope everyone enjoyed todays little flight on Golum Airlines. Please watch your step as you disembark.

We have some other little cruises planned for later this summer for those of you who would like to repeat.

Our stewardesses today were Kathy and Mary.

Speaking on behalf of myself and the crew I would like to wish you all a safe trip home and a happy weekend.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:19 - ID#304282)
Did anyone hear what Jerry Favors said today?
I missed it. Did he give any important levels to watch for?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:21 - ID#246224)
Keep proding us. We'll eventually get into the corral. Go to go to the topic areas and find the one for POWER. A load of links there.

Any dairyman who doesn't have power backup for his operation has never seen a bad situation such as you describe. All the evidence in the world wouldn't convince him to plunk down the $2800 for a new PTO genset. That's 12 KVA output. I called a place in the midwest, Nebraska, same rating used for $800.

Why don't you do him a favor. Workout a deal. You buy the Genset ( used ) and make an agreement to rent it to him if things go badly. What would it be worth to him to keep his operation going? $125 per day? He supplies the tractor and oil. In 6 days you have recouped your cost. Worst case you have power ( if you've got a tractor ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:23 - ID#246224)
Cow_Girl (correction)
Keep proding us. We'll eventually get into the corral. Go to go to the topic areas and find the one for POWER. A load of links there.

Any dairyman who doesn't have power backup for his operation has never seen a bad situation such as you describe. All the evidence in the world wouldn't convince him to plunk down the $2800 for a new PTO genset. That's 12 KVA output. I called a place in the midwest, Nebraska, same rating used for $800 for 25KVA unit.

Why don't you do him a favor. Workout a deal. You buy the Genset ( used ) and make an agreement to rent it to him if things go badly. What would it be worth to him to keep his operation going? $125 per day? He supplies the tractor and oil. In 6 days you have recouped your cost. Worst case you have power ( if you've got a tractor ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:25 - ID#246224)
Cow_Girl (correction)(again)
Keep proding us. We'll eventually get into the corral. Go to go to the topic areas and find the one for POWER. A load of links there.

Any dairyman who doesn't have power backup for his operation has never seen a bad situation such as you describe. All the evidence in the world wouldn't convince him to plunk down the $2800 for a new PTO genset. That's 12 KVA output. I called a place in the midwest, Nebraska, same used for $800 for 25KVA unit.

Why don't you do him a favor. Workout a deal. You buy the Genset ( used ) and make an agreement to rent it to him if things go badly. What would it be worth to him to keep his operation going? $125 per day? He supplies the tractor and oil. In 6 days you have recouped your cost. Worst case you have power ( if you've got a tractor ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:33 - ID#219363)
Wowoooooooo *claps hands* do again! do again!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:45 - ID#34191)
Thanks for the generator idea, but I couldn't look my neighbor in the eye and make money off his misfortune. Now, let me buy an option on milk, that's different. I hope he'll think it over and buy it himself. Thanks for the link, I really need to know if the power is going out!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:50 - ID#304282)
Anybody know what Jerry Favors said on cnbc today ??

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:51 - ID#290172)
Angola/US: Clinton decrees more sanctions against UNITA
Angola/US: Clinton decrees more sanctions against UNITA

Washington, 20 Aug ( Lusa ) - US President Bill Clinton on
Wednesday decreed a new sanctions on Angola's opposition UNITA
movement, a spokesman for the White House said.
Under the presidential order, the US authorities will freeze
UNITA property and other interests in United States.
Clinton also banned the sale of US mining equipment to UNITA
or areas under UNITA control.
The decree also bans the imports of diamonds from areas in
Angola without proper certificates of origin issued by the Angolan
Clinton sent a letter to the speakers of the House of
Representatives and Senate to explain his decision to impose new
sanctions on UNITA.
In the letter, Clinton says that UNITA's political actions
constitute an ''extraordinary threat'' to the foreign policy
interests of the United States.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:52 - ID#424424)
TRICKY - "Ain't" that Jerry Favors great!!
Here's Jerry's critical downside levels......

Anything below:

8263 intraday
8316 print ( closing )

and away we go to the downside!!!!

Bill ????? at Cantor-Fitzgerald said his min. target is 900 on the
S&P. Max. target, who knows......??? Saw him on CNBC today.

Favors also expects a Dow min. target of 7390 for the next wave down
with the wave after that to potentially be the BIG one ( crash ) .

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:55 - ID#219363)
So, is it "official" yet ? Or is this still on the books as a bull.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:55 - ID#373284)
I pledge allegiance to the Flag, and the Republic for which it stands
What then of usto think that Americans might rally round the Flagwhen there is an obvious slubb in the fabricthe loom should be turned off, the shuttle replaced, yarn checked, wires combed and then the loom put back into motionthe fabric of this administration is flawed, seriously flawed

I will not wag this flagnot of this administrationnope,nopestrategic dalliances are not my fashion boys and girlsnopenot in the least

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:56 - ID#304282)
What did Favors expect in the next couple of days? Anything?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:57 - ID#290172)
The Chinese are going to be up front about 'playing' the market {:-))
HK recession expected to last well into next year
By Loh Hui Yin in Hongkong

Chief executive Tung Chee Hwa has confirmed that Hongkong is in recession and said its economic difficulties will go on well into 1999.

Mr Tung also pledged to keep the Hongkong dollar linked to the greenback and stoutly defended the government's purchase of stocks AND FUTURES CONTRACTS to repel currency speculators.

Speculation in the market included talk that a prominent American hedge fund has been selling Australian dollars and buying yen since Wednesday, and rumours that a couple of Asian central banks are now selling US dollars for yen to relieve pressure on their currencies.

Stop-loss selling of greenbacks accumulated against other Asian currencies was also sighted as the Japanese currency broke away from the 144-mark yesterday morning, traders said.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:58 - ID#253153)
Technical update from London
The long bond recorded a new high's today with the yield falling to 5.46%.
The CRB recorded new low's today and closed at 200.54. Since we are in a Confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market , stocks declined but may be rallying a bit next week. The XAU closed at 61.66 and refused to make a new low. Both gold and the XAU are no longer recording new low's. Deflation is accelerating with Russia on the verge of total default. South American currencies will begin to collapse shortly. After Labor day, we should experience a financial panic which will in my opinion take the Dow down to the 4500-5500 area. Following the panic, we should get a big rally in the DOW sometimes in Oct, and gold related investments should begin a fantastic move up .These move will astound the public as the gold begins to discount A GOLD CONVERTIBLE DOLLAR. Gold will move first and silver will follow later. Get ready for a big depression following the financial panic in Sep.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 16:59 - ID#424424)
Allen - Any leads for good used generators
like the one you mentioned, PTO or otherwise.

Don't have much money, who do you know of??

You can email me at or post it here on
the forum, whichever you feel confortable with.

Thanks much......

Vernon Hale

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:03 - ID#424424)
Tricky - Favors did not elaborate....
He doesn't know if the 40% retracement back up ( Monday and Tuesday )
was the secondary rally. If it was, then down we go. If not, then
we have a 40-80% secondary rally, then the legs down start.

Nothing for the next day or two, sorry.....


(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:04 - ID#229207)
Hey, thx, Cap'n. I thought the flight was a blast, like a carnival ride. But I guess that's because I'm not in the stock market anymore. Not like the poor guy sitting next to me filled a couple of barf bags. It'll take him all weekend to recover. After that, you won't see him on another flight for a while.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:04 - ID#304282)
Thanks Vhale_A !!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:05 - ID#281175)
rattler..look closely
of the 4983 who answered the first question 10% responded safe haven seeking...but...

2396 answered the safe-haven seeking question, almost obviously more people are thinking about safe havens than actually seeking...undercurrent of fear.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:07 - ID#373284)
SDR_er, Namaste' and a thought filled gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...
may the ground rush to your feet always allowing solid footing...Cheers...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:09 - ID#424424)
Envy - we've been in a bear market
for months in the secondary stocks. Only the ( nifty-fifty ) have
kept the market up.

Yes, we are in a bear market, it's just that it takes a while to
break the back of the nifty-fifty bull. Nothing is straight up or

Most folks who are in the ( know ) are looking for 7000 - 5000 on the
Dow. That is until Y2K hits, then it may go to "0" depending on
how bad it gets. The "0" is my thoughts and Gary North.


Vernon Hale

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:13 - ID#410198)
SDRer....Heres a Washington Times story about UNITA ....the UN also called Rhodesia a threat to
World peace

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:14 - ID#280339)
Herding the sheep back into the market
Today's reversal means we have a bottom for a tradeable rally. It will start slowly. There will be another smaller move down in a couple days. There are a lot of scared investors who will sell into the initial rally. Then there will be a stronger rally.

The dow and S&P are already in bear markets. The Nasdaq isn't yet in a bear market. Stocks like Cisco, Yahoo and even Microsoft are still near their highs. Because the composite is capitalization rated they may be able to push it to a new high. This will draw the last of the sheep in.
We should see the gold stocks start to move up as this rally gets going. The smart money should start to move to gold before the next move down, because once it starts the dollar is going to go with it.

The Xau finished on its low of the day. Make sure the sheep are afraid of gold especially on a scary day like today.

Got Gold!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:26 - ID#433143)
DAMNIT! now youre gunna make me click on every one of those links!!! ill be at the damn computer all nite! all your fault!!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:32 - ID#373284)
G-Nutz, Namaste...a gulp to ya...tomorrows word...zeal...God bless...and now, the short list...>

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:59 - ID#373284)
blatant PLUG...y'all go here...ask for Gregg...emergency food supplies which are delicious this fella is doing his best and he WILL take care of ya...nuff said...he is honest, trustworthy and respectfilled...give him a call...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 17:59 - ID#219363)
America will face a black fate
Islamic militant coalition warns of new attacks on U.S.

"The coming days will guarantee, God willing, that America will face a black fate," the statement said. "Strikes will continue from everywhere, and Islamic groups will appear one after the other to fight American interests." The Jihad front is believed to be a coalition of six fundamentalist groups from Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Its statement was sent Tuesday to Al-Hayat's bureau in Cairo.

Apologies if this was already posted.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:01 - ID#290172)
Tolerant1--Thank you Kind Sir!

We had some of that "ground rush" a few days past! USGS says Bigger rolls coming...{:- ( (
Nonetheless, for You, glass upended, "Blue water, fair winds!" Namaste

Robnoel@The.Center -Perhaps we should spend some time compiling a Glossary of Terms for this administration, clearly defining, in reasonable terms, words like "threat", "extraordinary", "lies", "lying".
"Every violation of truth is not only a sort of suicide in the liar, but is a stab at the health of human society." Emerson
Thanks for the input.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:08 - ID#280214)
Cage Rattler, Spud Master, & ALL - re FED PRINTING CASH
Periodically I must repost on this since the question still arises.
The US Gov't could print $40 to $50 billion per week if they had to.
The Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces 38 million notes a day with a face value of approximately $541 million. 95% of the notes printed each year are used to replace notes already in circulation. 48% of the notes printed are $1 notes.
Each pair {face&back} of presses at 8000 32-note sheets/hour could print 6 million notes per 24 hours. The western facility has 6 pair of presses and produces 40%. We may assume Washington has 9 pair for the other 60%.
All the presses running 24/hrs day, 7days/wk {less 38% down time} could print $40 billion per week - more with less down time especially if they got Scotty to tweak them. For current production refer to:
That still would not make a significant dent in replacing M3 with green currency unless they started now printing big bills and did not destroy old bills - but kept them in reserve.

Mountain Goat
(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:10 - ID#35087)
@vhale__A & other Y2K nuts RE: Generators
Wife & I spent some time this week pricing home Generators...
A decent 5000 watt generator runs between $500.00 - $700.00 USD
Eats 5 gallons ( 20 liters?? ) of gas in 6 hours
Weighs approx. 150 pounds
Stocks still seem to be good here in Denver.

For wattage utilization purposes:
Electric clothes dryer: 5000 - 10,000 watts
Water heater: 2500 - 4500 watts
Refrigerator: 1500 watts
Stove: 3000 + watts
Fan: 500 - 1000 watts
Light bulb: ( as marked ) 40 - 250 watts

We figure we can be selective about what we plug in.
For instance, the fridge only needs to run a few hours a day to keep food cold.

Also, we don't want to tie up a great deal of cash in this thing...
Want to buy more yellow stuff! Plus, the bigger, the heavier, and
we want to be 'nimble'.


MG ( Go Gold! )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:16 - ID#290172)
Envy, re: your 17:59
One remembers the Frankfort murabitun newsletter announcing that an attack on any single Muslim group would be viewed as an attack on all Muslims. Certainly gives one pause...or should.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:18 - ID#280214)
That was not a misprint
The Fed could print $40 - $50 billion per WEEK if they had to.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:26 - ID#280214)
But if they did then 25lbs of Sugar might cost US$100 or US$1000
But one 10-grain Gold coin would still buy one 25lb bag of Sugar.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:34 - ID#57232)
Pending Financial Panic
JP: Your post rings true to me. And -- after labor day would be a weak time for the US markets. What I am curious about is what you think the Germans might do, when they find out that the German people are holding an empty bag from Russia. I would guess that there will be a lot of flight to safety. And -- Europeans are far more cognizant of the value of gold than Americans.
My question to you is this -- how do you think this will transpire? Stock market panic first, worldwide, pulling gold equities down one more time? Or a run on the dollar? A gold rally? My intuitive guess is that the US dollar will stay up as the safe haven, with South America falling next. Germany will have some sort of panic next, with a market downturn.
Here is the kicker. Will the Germans find some reason to sell some gold? This could definitely hold gold down one more time -- and AG has threatened to do everything in his power to keep gold from going up too fast, as well.
My assessment -- reluctantly -- is that gold will do poorly at the beginning of the financial panic. It will not be until later when the anti-gold forces abate that gold will rally. When it is clear to all that the fiat currency ballgame is lost, gold will really begin to rise -- worldwide. At that time, it will also be apparent to all that the financial panic is worldwide -- and even the US will be sucked in.
And -- as we all know very well -- the US financial system only looks stong on the outside. It will not take much of a push to get our debt-ridden economic system into a tailspin. One thing I still have difficulty picturing is whether the US dollar will drop quickly enough that we will have an inflationary gold rally before the US markets bottom. Could be. Because one difference between now and 1929 is that in 1929 we were not net debtors. Our experience might well be more like the Indonesian experience, and not the Japanese experience where it took 10 years for the deflationary process to fully take hold.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:41 - ID#335379)
Hello Mtn. Goat. Hello Squirrel... We sold the coach!!!!!!!!
For nimble-ness get a small motor home, Generator built in.
On the fridge power requirment, please remember that any cooling device ( Fridge, AC etc. ) requires an overhead start power of 150 to 250% power rated generator over the nominal running wattage.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:44 - ID#335379)
'scuse that..Thats "of" the nominal wattage

(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:46 - ID#45173)
My $.02 on Clintoninski
This is from a contest on Long Island. The requirements were to use the
words Lewinsky and Kaczynski in a limerick.

Here are the 3 winners.


Contestants' Entries:

Entry # 1
There once was a gal named Lewinsky
Who played on a flute like Stravinsky
'Twas "Hail to the Chief"
on this flute made of beef
that stole the front page from Kaczynski.

Entry # 2
Said Bill Clinton to young Ms. Lewinsky
We don't want to leave clues like Kaczynski,
Since you look such a mess,
use the hem of your dress
And wipe that stuff off of your chinsky.

Entry # 3
Lewinsky and Clinton have shown
what Kaczynski must surely have known:
that an intern is better
than a bomb in a letter
given the choice of how to be blown.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 18:48 - ID#242325)
XAU pounded today although gold was down just slightly. Looks like Steve Kaplan was correct when he said that heavy call purchases in senior gold producers was very bearish.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:00 - ID#218248)
AHHHHHHHHHHH: Thats better. Bullion does give ya a warm fuzzy feeling.
Made the move and increased the exposure to the PM's and got some Physical to go with my HL.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:14 - ID#373284)
SDR_er, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...
Plenteous, this then is the word which echo's in my mind, an imaginary easel filled with the comfort that is you...and yours...splash at your leisure upon the canvas that is Cuervo Central...forever welcome...y'all c'mon hear...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:14 - ID#43349)
Is $.02 any different from 2 ?

So when are you going to quit flying around the world dodgeing terrorists and shoot some pool?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:16 - ID#384350)
Market Commentary
From various reports,
Brasil came back from the precipice from being down 10% to finishing only off just under 3%. Some said there was ``white-knight'' buying by the government's pension funds and the National Development Bank ( BNDES ) to protect the market. ``The government was definitely trying to protect Telebras at the end,'' another trader said.

Today, Venezuela loosened its grip on its currency ( devalued ) , and emerging market bonds, which have been caught in a downward spiral for the last week, today lost anywhere from two to 12 points in price. The markets are responding to ``increasing signs that economies are slowing everywhere.

Also, the heavy use of leverage to fund many bond investments is exacerbating the selloff, analysts said. ``This is the largest margin call on fixed-income assets in history,''
That's what deflation is all about - those who have borrowed to buy things, are forced to sell them when prices fall. Sometimes assets are pledged as collateral as in margin loans on stocks & bonds or in bank loans for real estate & housing.

The situation is just getting uglier and uglier. Breadth today was 3:1 negative ( a couple days ago it was only 2:1 positive and the Dow climbed 200 points ) but the dow only lost 81 points. NYSE Down Volume 548M vs. Up Volume 158M.

In daily Dow Elliott wave, it appears that we have finished wave 1 down of the second sequence and are in wave 2 currently- key figures are 8300 support and 8800 resistance, IMO. A break below 8300 and we should see a retest of Oct 97 low near 7000. Notice, a good many stocks are already at or below Oct 97 levels. It's the illusion of a few main indices that give the impression that things aren't as bad as they really are.

Does anyone know if the Fed injected ( printed ) more more currency through repos today?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:19 - ID#384350)
Also, the Trannies made a lower low today, just skimming above October 97 low.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:24 - ID#343171)
going farfel....
getting ready to lose it here, this waitin'
on gold is gettin a bit old!!

ANOTHER was right, this is a NEW gold market,
in the gold old days we'd be blasting UP in
gold prices given all of the global melting ( incipient panic ) .

Gimme sum a dat ole time greenback spankin gold action,
this 'new' market bites

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:33 - ID#384350)
Squin, Gollum, APH
Squin, Gollum, I read that a good 90% of German loans to Russia are guaranteed by the German Govt. Which means printing currency, and ultimately that the Euro ain't gonna be as strong as people think.

It also appears that APH correctly rode wave 1 down from top to bottom, reversed and has wave 2 as well.

Congratulations, APH. Are you still long? Your interpretations on Dow/Gold/Silver? TIA.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:34 - ID#43349)
Well, not exactly. Gold never has correlated to stock market moves very well. Not ever. For some reason people seem to think it does.

Admittedly there have been times the markets went down and gold up, but there have been as many times when they went up or down together.

Gold does, however, have a fairly strong correlation to bond prices. Bonds go up and gold goes down, etc.

This is probably due to both of them moving with percieved inflation rates.

If the $US becomes less of a safety currency, then you will see gold rise. At least it will rise in $US terms if not real buying power terms.

Or a good old fashioned banking panic or some such.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:35 - ID#342376)
@ Woody and Rhody IE What happens when long bond rates less than discount rate
I'll give you a hint: JP could have written this article:

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:36 - ID#219363)
Arabs Criticize U.S. Bombings
Comments from regular folks around the mid-east.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:37 - ID#43349)
@Gianni Dioro__A
Yeah. That's what I thought. It wasn't the German banks so much as the German government ( taxpayer ) that was on the hook.

APH is one sharp trader. I bet he's been at it for a while. Definitly a pro.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:45 - ID#280214)
Mountain Goat's 18:10 re Generators
5 gallons of fuel per 6 hours, That's 20 gallons per day.
With electricity out for less than a week you would be okay.
Storing a hundred gallons or so is simple enough.
What if the power is out for a month or more?
Maybe 500-gallon fuel-oil tanks should be checked out.
Besides having a hand-pump for motor vehicle fuel, you could
run a fuel line directly to the generator's engine.
That way you wouldn't have to refill several times per day.
Why store that much? I doubt household generators will be high
on the priority list for rationing when a tank truck comes in.
Hospitals, water & sewage plants, firehouses, police stations,
schools {relocation shelters}, etc will get first draw.
Oh yes, All the local politicians will have priority too!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:49 - ID#219363)
Yeah, I'd been watching what APH was doing too - good call. APH: I think we'd all be interested in hearing what your short/near-term projections are for the coming week, weeks, and/or month.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:52 - ID#384350)
Squirrel, Fed Printing
Bring back the $10,000 note! But seriously folks, to convert M3 to M1 requires selling a WHOLE LOTTA STUFF. Beware of Y2k!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:59 - ID#293184)
Congrats on your calls, just like a skilled surgeon..Regards

(Fri Aug 21 1998 19:59 - ID#293184)
Congrats on your calls, just like a skilled surgeon..Regards

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:00 - ID#373284)
God bless Mike Sheller and his family...uh huh...
In the fog of the moments which created the Great Pooh, as oars slowly crept across the waters of greatnessthis Pooh being, created from dreamsthis Pooh beinga soul, a soul we needsearching Heaven and Earth for the finest of us, the soul of Mike Sheller was mirroredcinnamon cookies tasted properly, as they should above wafting teabacon gleefully danced with eggs in the pan, of course without telling Peter

All was well with the world,,,

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:03 - ID#43349)
There has been a lot of hoopla about "the coming market crash". I want to point out that what we have here is a bear market.

There have been many bear markets in the past without a so called crash. This one has not yet shown any sign of being any different. Here for example is the seasonaly adjusted DJIA correlation chart you may have already seen posted.

Please not that this is a bear market scenario. The market ends lower than at the beginning. Please not also the various rallies and corrections. Also the nadir late in the year.

Todays action is not yet on the chart, but it is apparrent that today decline falls just where it should.

So what turns a bear market into a crash, like in '29?

It generally happens when a part of the system breaks. A major bank fails or major brokerage houses get in trouble. The ensuing panic on top of the bear market strain that caused the failure ( s ) is too much and the whole system goes down.

Suddenly people who thought they had their account hedged find their derivatives are no good because the guy holding the other end is insolvent.

People who thought they had money in the bank can't get to it when they absolutely have to have it.

Crashes are not pretty. Even for the people expecting them.

Would gold do well if the markets crashed?

Probably not. With no liquidty a piece of gold is just another chunk of pretty metal.

Gold would do very well, on the other hand, in the ensuing inflation as the government attempted to jump start things to going again.

Even if no extra money was printed, there would be shortages develop due to manufacturing failures and transportation difficulties. Either demand pull ( not enough goods ) or supply pull ( too many dollars ) would eventually bring higher prices.

The Hatt
(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:11 - ID#294232)
Canada is next in line and we are fast asleep!
While the currency crisis unravels around the World, Canada is fast asleep as their loonie slips lower! Intervention will soon be recognised as a fools game and rates will have to rise. As rates rise this will offer some short term relief however the end result will be further declines to much lower levels. Canadians had better wake up quick and start taking more of a roll in this very serious problem. Let your voice be heard in defence of replacing those millions of ounces of gold your government sold. Australia and Mexico are on the same road.
The integrity of the Dow and the Comox have never been more damaged. London Gold Trader last week remarked that he could not figure out what those Americans are doing to the gold market. To those of us that watch gold closely it has become a market that can only be labeled predictable. For example whenever the Dow takes downward pressure the first ppt move is to hammer gold prices. The last thing they want is the physcology to change. Our friends at cnbc have stated donot worry if we were in real problems gold would be moving and its not! This week marked the first week where abx and pdg were downticked at market close every day.. Anywhere from ten to twenty cent spreads saw closing trades unleashed on the bids taking the close some thirty to forty cents lower. The same tactics have been used in the futures market which has become a tool to control the market losses both at the open and at the close. Todays action was further evidence that the Dow is being manipulated from more than one source....
Will the public ever wake up or will they continue to stuff money into mutual funds and have that fund use this same capital to monetize the paper of the wealthy. These funds will be remembered in history as the vehicle used to fleece North Americans of their savings and their hard earned capital... I am of the opinion that many of these fund managers already have their money out of the markets and this type of disclosure to fund holder must be mandatory. If your fund manager had cashed in his chips would that alter your decision to stay fully invested?
Have followed Dines for sometime now and will always remember his comment regarding when will gold breakout, "Gold willnot show strength until the World recognises that they are in the middle of a full blown currency crisis". I am of the opinion that the day is near and look forward to humbly accepting our rewards for being contrarians!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:20 - ID#43349)
Standing next to the train
and wondering if it's me that's moving, or the train. If the yen is going down, and the ruble, and oil, and gold, and real estate, and the yuan, and the mark, and car prices, and silver, and the peso, and.....
Could it be that maybe it is the dollar going up? And all those other things are just sitting there?

We see deflation. The Japanese or Austrailian sees inflation. Australian miners are mining and selling like mad. The Japaanese can hardly afford to buy oil.

Which way is up?

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:25 - ID#295111)
Base Market Divisor - XAU
Can someone tell how to derive the "BASE MARKET DIVISOR" that is used to calculate the XAU???

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:28 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hatt -- I'd rather have the gold in peoples hands at low low prices than have it sitting in vaults and out of their hands. Let the idiot governments sell it. ALL of it! They have no real business in 'holding' it anyway!!! Let the people get rid of their paper in exchange for tangibility. The ONLY answer! And then let this debt-based system get 'cleansed'. Perhaps with 'draino'!

Flash Gordon__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:41 - ID#326279)
dow jones
Probably already been mentioned: George Soros selling bond futures and loading up on equity index futures.

Inger, Elliades, Ure, Ackerman and possibly ol' Jerry reckon we get a rally this coming week ( maybe as far as into Labor day ) .

Full moon whatchmacallit and Elliot's abc thingy also fits in nicely.

The worst part is that I think so also, and that is a serious problem since I am contrarian indicator supremo

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:43 - ID#280214)
Gianni Dioro - M1 is even easier than M3
the Fed can print US$40 billion in one week
and M1 is US$1000 {more or less}
the could fed print enough FRNs to cover M1 in 6 months.
and if they printed US$1000 notes {along with $500's & $100's}
they could cover M1 in less than a month!

So don't worry folks - they can print enough for us.
Yes - and a 25lb bag of sugar {if you can find one to buy}
will cost $100 or maybe one of those crisp new US$1000 notes
or 10 grains of Gold - okay maybe commodity inflation and price gouging is running rampant - maybe 100 grains of Gold.
Do I hear 1 ounce? Two ounces?
SOLD to the man in the tattered 3-piece suit

{I wonder if he is going to use it to make fudge or white lightning.}

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:47 - ID#280214)
I meant to say that M1 is US$1000 BILLION.
What is a billion here or there or and extra 9 zeros?

Come Y2K chaos and anarchy - what would 25lbs of sugar be worth
to an enterprising entrepreneur?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:50 - ID#219363)
Am I the only one who does not think that the government is messing with the market ? I mean, what does the government care if the DOW takes a big hit, what's in it for them ? Greenspan already said he thinks the market is over-valued, why would he stop it from dropping off ? Sounds like busting the glass out of the gas gauge, pushing the needle up with your finger, and believing that'll help get you to the gas station. I see absolutely no reason for the government to fiddle with the market, including Presidential re-election which isn't even happening this year.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 20:56 - ID#43352)
I can, however, see reasons for people to believe the government is messing with the market.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:00 - ID#255284)
The sky is falling..........

The partial eclipse will be most spectacular in Auckland, with
more than half the sun appearing to be covered shortly after
half-past-three this afternoon ( that's in about 90 minutes )

off to grab my binoculars ;-^}
( children should ask their parents first )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:01 - ID#219363)
I'm sure that they would, and I know that they could, but I just don't see a reason to have done it so far, nor do I see a reason to do it in the future unless something "asia'ish" or "russian'ick" happens.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:02 - ID#401460)
Clinton donations

Well here are the boys again, this time publically donating to Clinton's defese fund.

"Another donor of the maximum amount was Eli Broad, chairman and chief executive officer of SunAmerica, a specialist in retirement funds that spent $100,000 to lobby last year and needs regulatory approval for its purchase by commercial insurance giant American International Group."

AIG, American International Group, they are not even American, formed in Singapore. They are big in Asia, insurance on planes etc.
Again they are conected to Boeing and GE - All want IMF to bail out Asia and every one else.
Rockefellers and Goldman Sachs etc.

They are part of the shell game.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:02 - ID#235295)
Tantalus Rex...I believe information at this URL will prove helpful

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:02 - ID#153102)
@The Empire Strikes Back
Cohen and Albright were on the television, I understood what they were saying. Did you ? They say that "terrorism is a global threat."
They will combat "terrorism" anywhere on the globe. With or without your government's assistance.

If a demonstration could speak, the events of recent days would say, "We have these little gizmos with a warhead and electronics and they come to your street without warning and explode. We just push a button.

So, youse guys behave yourselves."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:03 - ID#317193)
Gollum...a, I know not the precise answer but...
During the last 1998 years how many of those years has gold or silver NOT circulated a money in at least one country on this planet?

History is rarely defeated but some are born to a time that does not fit their beliefs. Yes?

Tom PS...USAGOLD just called with a contract offer: )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:04 - ID#434158)
12 Counts Perjury
According to Fox News, a US News and World Reports reporter is stating that Starr's report documents 12 counts of presidential perjury, some in the Jones transcript and some last Monday in front of the current grand jury. Among other things. Has the Prez been caught with his pants down again? ( figuratively speaking, of course. )

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:08 - ID#43352)
Would you want gold to circulate as a currency?


Dollars are currency. How many dollars is a dollar worth?

If gold were currency, how many ounces of gold would an ounce of gold be worth?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:08 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Envy -- Could it be that they might 'pay due respect' to gold should the stoxs tank?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:10 - ID#43352)
You are talking about why they would want to do it, and I am talking about why people would want to believe they do it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:11 - ID#219363)
CB Gold
And further, I have serious doubts about the discussions concerning CB's and gold - why would the CB's push the price of Gold down ? What purpose would it serve ? A bank isn't going to do diddly with the price of Gold unless it's somehow in their best interest, and I just don't see it. I don't see what's in it for the CB unless they're trying to push the price of Gold down so that they can buy more of it. If anything, with banks talking about selling Gold, I would think that they would want to push the price of Gold UP.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:13 - ID#173274)
@the scene
GungaDin -- I'm sure Starrs report will also show a lot of cocaine usage in the WhiteHouse, as well as other interesting things.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:19 - ID#317193)
Gollum...a question unanswered by four questions????

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:21 - ID#209265)
Envy - There's no question that the PPT exists . . .
just ask any S&P index contract day trader who was playing the market on Oct. 27, 1997! The concept was written up n the Wall St. Journal in 1989 by a Fed governor, and Rubin has cryptically announced that the Treasury Dept. has measure in place to protect agains 'market emergencies.'

Why do they do it? To try to prevent crashes, of course!

They could conceivably be useful if they were to only try to prevent crashes and let bear markets proceed in a 'controlled' fashion. I'm wondering, though, since the Treasury Department has been politicized under Clinton, whether there may be futile efforts to prop the markets up to maintain WJC's popularity.

- Steve

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:22 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- 'Feds', What a concept!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:25 - ID#266105)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:25 - ID#334219)
Anybody know what is the total market cap of all US$ stocks? How many trillions ?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:25 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Steve in TO -- They are only pushing 'dirt' over the top of the hill until they have a cliff formed to fall off of.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:26 - ID#190411)
I just read your posts of yesterday, and they are thought provoking.

I'm with TYoung on this hesitancy toward goldstocks and physical. It just seems weird that TVX and other companies share prices continue to fall with any news that would have propelled them skyward in the past.

I don't see the unremittingly rotten news that smashed POG in the last year. I also do not see why there should be any positive correlation of POG with the Yen.

Yet nothing happens. Oh well, I'll just take a number and sit down to wait.

I suppose you saw Cooljings "Cinton does farfel"

IDCI ( lying ) M.

I don't care I'm lying more!-

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:27 - ID#153102)
Big word Federalism disguised old concept: "You, we say, are the feeders and we are the Feds."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:27 - ID#266105)
US equity

Something like $12.6T comes to mind or about 150% of GDP.
A record.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:28 - ID#384350)
Squirrel, M1 vs M3
A couple thoughts here. M1 is liquidity, and it has been shrinking since January. M1 is used to pay interest on debts to support M3. If M1 is shrinking ( deflationary ) then it will be harder and harder to keep the M3 bubble afloat. One of these days POP!

Okay sure they can print $500 and $1000 notes, but what will happen to reserve requirements at your local bank, which has loaned out the same currency 8-10 times over, when Y2K panicky people start withdrawing cash in earnest? Does the Fed make bridge loans or some other paper shuffling gimickry?

And these possible new notes: $100, $200, $500, $1000, $5000, $10,000. Does it remind you of anything?

I have here 4 German Reichmarks. The dates and denomination as follows:

07 Feb., 1908 100 Marks
21 Apr., 1910 1000 Marks
02 July, 1923 50,000 Marks
23 July, 1923 20,000,000 Marks

If you understand German you may wish to read the text:

I believe it says that more or less: From Sep 1 onwards, The Reichsbank exchanges this piece of paper with another piece of paper with a bigger number on it.

And: Only the Reichsbank ( like the Fed ) has license to counterfeit money. Anyone else gets at least 2 years in prison.

I saw a webpage the other night with a 1934 US $5 bill, and it had very similar wording, ie pay the bearer, only the Fed can counterfeit money, pay the bearer with whatever is legal money ( money by decree: fiat ) .

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:30 - ID#295111)

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:31 - ID#43352)
What people want to do and what they do do are two different things. Especially when it comes to do with what we call the "system".

Consider the criminal justice system in the US. It seems to favor the crook over the victim. Everyone is horrified about it, but it still happens. Why?

The judges, the police, the lawyers, the penal institutions all owe their being to the existence of the crooks. If there were no crooks, those guys would be out of work.

Systems evolve by evolution. The very best legal minds become defense attorneys because that's where the money is. Not prosecutors. Getting the crook back out on the street and earnig enough to pay his fees is where it's at.

If the only way the attorneys and police ever got paod was from the revenue from prisoners making license plates, it would be hardly any time at all before everyone were in jail and anything that wasn't in jail would require at least five diverent kinds of license to own or operate.

None of those police or judges or lawyers or lawmakers neccessarily are aware of it, but that's the way it is.

With central banks we have a case where the bank can have a lot of free money availabe anytime they want it so long as gold has a low value that they wouldn't have otherwise plus a number of ,er uh, creative accounting practices.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:33 - ID#209265)
Eldorado - You're absolutely right, PPT efforts are . . .
a waste of money. The Fed probably didn't even originate the idea, since the Japanese were doing it in a crude, unsophisticated fashion before 1989.

When the 1990 Nikkei crash came, though, the Japanese PPT was completely unable to stop it.

When there are little leaks in the dam they can stick their fingers in and stop them, but when panic strikes and the dam breaches, not even governments have the resources to bring them under control.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:35 - ID#384350)
Isn't this the same crapola that Russia ( as well as Latin America ) has been trying sell to nave investors ( sic ) . Who in their right mind would believe that they are going to get any value out of these bonds yielding 100%+ interest?

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:39 - ID#209265)
Gianni - I have a German friend who . . .
has postage stamps from the early 20's. They're in crazy denominations- DM10,000, DM200,000 and even one that had originally been a DM100,000 stamp with DM1,000,000 printed over top!

If it took 1 million marks to mail a letter, think how much funny money it must have taken to buy a car. You couldn't pay cash for expensive items because the bills would weigh too much. Far better to write a cheque for DM1 billion!


(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:40 - ID#266105)
rubble bonds

Who in their right mind would believe that they are going to get any value out of these bonds yielding 100%+ interest?


German banks. Stuff the vaults with these things and
if they pay off in anything like the terms of issuance you
pocket the profit. If they default the public pays the
principal and forgoes the interest. Heckuva deal.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:41 - ID#43352)
No sir. Not intended as an answer, but rather to determine what the nature of your question is.

Even before the time of Christ, much more time before, people were using gold coins in some country or another. I am sure you know that, so I don't know what you are asking.

So I posed four questions of my own, which really only ask one question, but not the one any of them state.

Just as you speak in questions.

Only one question to ask why I give four questions to answer one of your?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:41 - ID#344396)
@ Envy Why CB's want price of gold low
As long as POG is stable or falls the CB's are assured that all gold out on loan will be repaid.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:42 - ID#222231)
Gollum-20:03, "Would gold do well if markets crash"?
Here's ANOTHER viewpoint.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:43 - ID#219363)
Canada's CB just sold a lot of Gold to help out their currency. I still see absolutely no reason for them to have wanted the price of Gold to be low, they had nothing to gain from it. Maybe Canada wasn't one of the players involved in the CB conspiracy to push down the POG ?

pot O gold__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:44 - ID#170196)
Please help me with this questio!
If dollars are a unit of measurement against credit or debit, and is entered into a computer as such, and there is no real money changing hands except for smaller transactions to keep a paper money in front of the people.Can there be a deficet or a balanced budget.

Ok, I take 100.00 to a bank and deposit it.Do I actually have 100.00 dallars in the bank. Ok, Lets take 200 million people, do they have 100.00 in the bank, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahow much does that add up to?

I really need the answer.



Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:50 - ID#384350)
2BR02B? German Loans to Russia
Yeah, I suppose the crafty banks get something tangible in collateral, like gold, oil, etc, Milk that for what it's worth, and when the default comes have the politicians ( who are in the bankers pockets ) shaft the German folk, through devaluation ( printing money/deficit spending ) and taxation ( soak the rich/but not the ruling elite and their banks ) .

If you noticed Russia is still honouring foreign denominated debt. Ah, the debt trap springs and catches another fish. The corrupt leaders pay off a few individuals, and screw the rest of the country by debasing the currency.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:50 - ID#373284)
this evening I sit, having fed my Mother dinner...just off the phone with a Lady from
Kentucky, truly a...LADY, uh huh...she took care of me when I was so far past ill as to be dead...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...America thinks this I ever see another Sunrise, I can only pray that it is illuminated with their, I polish the floor before God's son/sun goes near it and I put the rattler in the snake...ya gotta do what ya gotta do...Billy Joel..."there is nothing I wouldn't do to make you feel my Love."

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:51 - ID#219363)
I absolutely believe that the government does intervene when the markets tank too much - it scares them, makes them think they have to "save" it somehow, like in Asia. But I'd be hard pressed to believe that every time the market drops a few hundred points that the "PPT" is jumping in to save it - I'm betting it's just bargain hunters. We just have to keep in mind that the government reacts to emergencies, but it doesn't have any idea what it's doing 99 percent of the time.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:54 - ID#43352)
But they did gain from it. No question of that. Before the sale they had total reserves carried on their books much less than the total reserves carried on their bokks after the sale. And of course because of the fractional reserve banking system one dollar of reserve might be worth a thousand in circulating "money".

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:54 - ID#210114)
Beaming in.......

(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:56 - ID#317193) more questions...maybe gold only is a good investment if...
it is an item such as corn or wheat it ain't going nowhere.

Tell me world which way gold?


(Fri Aug 21 1998 21:59 - ID#401460)
Bank Accounting

Some thoughts,

If everyone is in the Markets, who has a savings account or bank CD's.?

Banks are making a record number of loans, in a bank run, do they have any deposits to back them?

American savings are at a record low, so how could the banks have sufficient deposits to cover an emergency?

ALL insttutions are participating in the derivatives game, banks and insurance cos.

Interest rates on existing credit card accounts are going up as banks scramble, offering low initial rates in an attempt to generate new credible customers.

The world is heading for a massive loan default, a really big liquidity crises, printed money everywhere, but no were to be found when needed.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:00 - ID#219363)
I'm sure you're telling me something here, and I'm trying to get my mind around what you're saying, but I'm just not following for some reason.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:00 - ID#210114)
No Russian Gold Sales

Moscow--Aug 21--Russian Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov today told
reporters Russia would not sell gold out of its state reserves to replenish
its diminished foreign currency reserve. By Maria Zabralova, Bridge News,
Story .11567

Bill Buckler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:01 - ID#256381)
Treasury Debt - the only game in town?
PDF ( 15:06 ) posted an article from Reuters here on Kitco saying that it was "very important". It sure is!

The article concerns a bloodbath on the U.S. corporate bond market during Friday trading. To judge how important, here's a quote from a bond trader

"This is the largest MARGIN CALL on fixed-income assets in history."

Note, the trader was talking about US corportate debt and the debt of pretty well every "emerging economy" government in the world. Right now, there is a panic flight into U.S. Treasuries.

Thus, increasing fear everywhere is channelling the world's "hot money" into the apex of the inverted pyramid of debt which underpins the world's financial system. That apex is U.S. Treasury debt.

The "money" always had to end up there before a situation could arise where it begins to flee paper altogether. Well, it's there.

The Privateer has all gold charts and commentary now updated at our website. On the Gold commentary page, we include a link to the Reuters story mentioned above and two others. They are all - IMCO - MUST reads.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:02 - ID#43352)
Besides, look how well the government accomplishes everything else it sets out to do....

In the past there have been "PPT"s, but not neccesarily government sponsered ones. I guess that's what you would call them.

The banking/brokerage industry takes in billions of dollars a year in revenues so long as the "system" continues to operate smoothly. In times of crises when the markets were one the edge of collapse, big time financiers would meet in back rooms and.....

Well it takes too long to go into here, but a few hundred million to save billions a year is a good investment. Espeially if you get it all back, maybe even with a profit almost immediately if you are successfull, but lose billions if you don't make the effort.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:06 - ID#43352)
Gold is only worth something as an investment if you can get more for it than you originally paid for it.

That does not necessarily happen if it is the currency itself.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:11 - ID#43352)
And that is a very good viewpoint as to golds value in times of inflation or deflation, which has nothing to do with when markets crash. We can have either and have markets either crash or not crash as the case might be.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:13 - ID#210114)
Oh dear.......
Asian crisis now a global crisis. Down going down, German DAX going down, missiles flying about, scandal in the White House.....

and gold is not moving.

This is very discouraging.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:13 - ID#242303)
Who is buying to cause the rebound in stocks??
Is it still the dip buyers, perhaos short coverers or people who think they are really picking up 'bargains'.

Surely they must realise that consumer confidence the world over has taken a big body blow... ergo...the fourth qaurter US corporate earnings are GOING to be down..ergo stocks cannot keep rising while earnings drop. Am I missing something here?

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:15 - ID#384350)
Envy, Gollum & all- PPT & Nick Leeson
Think about it.

Bill Buckler
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:16 - ID#256381)
Correction to 22:01 Post
That "PDF" should read "PMF". Sorry PMF - damn good eye on finding that news story.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:23 - ID#373284)
to Bill Buckler, Namaste' and a huge gulp of tequila to ya from the Island that is Long
perfidy is not part nor portion of your is a privlege...cheers...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:28 - ID#43352)
The central banks carry gold on their books at very low values per ounce. Some at around $35 an ounce, some at perhaps $45. Sort of a holdover from Bretton Woods or some such I guess. The fair market value is much higher of course.

If gold is selling at, say, $280 an ounce and you hav it on your books at $35 an ounce, you can magically raise your reserves by $245 for every ounce you sell.

If times sre good, you can decrease your reserves by buying gold.

Obviously this gives you the power to loosen or tighten th amount of money in circulation and effective interest rates as you so desire.

Unfortuneately it also leaves you with a lot of gold laying around and serving no usefull purpose. Unless you lease it and get some interest income. So you take $35 worth of asset and lease it and get paid the interest as though it was $280.

Lets say you lease at one per cent. That means for every one hundred ounces you lend out you get one hundred and one ounces back. You sell the extra ounce on the open market and you gain $245 for loaning $3500 of book asset.

Of course over time this may drive the fair market value down, but you're happy and the guy you leased it to is happy because he sold the gold and got 51/2% interest on the money, He's even happier if the price went down because when he bought it back to return the leased gold it didn't cost as much as he originally sold it for.

No one here really care all that much about the price going down. It's not a CONSCIOUS conspiracy per se.....

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:28 - ID#384350)
PPT & Barings - Any Similarities?
Barings lost around $1 Billion or so in the futures markets, by what we were led to believe was a said "lone" rogue trader. Think about it.

What was Nick Leeson's role and what was he doing? Think about it.

Aren't Futures trading a zero sum game? Think about it.

If Barings lost $1Billion, didn't someone make $1Billion? Think about it.

Was there any way for individuals who might have had inside knowledge of the trades that would be coming from the Baring's account to profit from this knowledge? Think about it.

Are there any similarities to what happened to Barings through Nick Leeson and what may be happening in US markets, that is if you believe there are really Pigs Porking at the Trough. Think about it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:29 - ID#228128)
Next week I'm looking for a move back to around 1120 cash on the S&P then down from there towards the end of the week. What say ye!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:31 - ID#242303)
America will always be the target of middle east terrorism..
While it has such a one sided policy in the middle east.

I worked in the middle-east for several years and visited most of the countries in the region. There is no FUNDAMNETAL hate for the US. However the US has been seen ( as it has been ) so one sided in it's dealings in the region vis a vis the Isrealis and Palestinians that it can only lead to alienation.

I was in the mid-east when women and children were massacarred at El Shatila and....?... camps by pro-islreali forces in Lebanon after the Isreali invasion. It was in an area occupied by Isreal.

Barely a whimper from the US..condemning either side..course the CIA was busy at the time supplying drug dealers with arms to fight commies.. ( OFten Isreai made! )

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:33 - ID#384350)
PPT & Barings - Any Similarities?
What was the contract that busted Barings? Think about it.

What effect would going long in that contract have on the underlying index? Think about it.

What event caused the underlying index to crash and burn and cost Barings $1Billion?

Leeson and the PPT, any Similarities? Think about it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:35 - ID#257344)
store of wealth
Spock, my dear friend, no gold is not going up ( yet ) but neither is it going down! In all of this turmoil, it is holding its own value, albeit a depressed one for those of us on this site. But if you had invested your life savings in gold at anytime this year, you would not be drastically hurt like so many other investment choices throughout the globe. First gold will prove that it is a store of value, like it has been doing, then it will increase in price relative to all other choices as more people become aware of its soundness for a long term perspective as they are getting anialated in their short term investment outlook. Patience, my friend, this is a war a determined folks and our side has been holding their ground all year!

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:37 - ID#384350)
PPT & Barings - Any Similarities?

What was the contract that busted Barings?

The Nikkei

What effect would going long in that contract have on the underlying index?

It would create an imbalance between the futures and the underlying shares and thus the Nikkei composite would rise.

What event caused the underlying index to crash and burn and cost Barings $1Billion?

The Kobe Earthquake

Leeson and the PPT, any Similarities? Think about it.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:37 - ID#433172)
A 1000 wt generator will burn maybe 1 gallon of gas per 6 hrs. eliminate anything that takes a lot more. Belive me, it wears very thin to supply a 5000 wt with gas. Impossible on a regular basis. I ran a freezer with no sweat on the 1000 wt type. Charge 8d batteries with your ac chargers and discharge with an inverter when the gen is not on which should be 3/4 of the time. After 17 years I ended up with 3 yamahas and one honda em 650. Briggs powered are crap. It pays to buy the best. Expect at least 3 years of no trouble..clean the gas tank, oil, plug regularly.

I just purchased a 4 hp yanmar diesel, and will marry it to a generator some time soon.

Fuel -fuel- fuel-carry carry carry- better to use propane for anything at all, stoves with ovens are neat. Small gens are quiet, if you run one long you'll learn to apprerciate that.

They also start fires easy..require due caution.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:38 - ID#43352)
The world is rapidly changing because of the internet. Today one, any one, can get up in the morning and check out the overnight markets and globex futures have a pretty good idea if the market is going to start out up or down. Internet brokers are available to make trades on a very low cost per trade basis.

It has led to a great swelling in the ranks of the day trader. The day trader doesn't care if it's a bull market or a bear market. All he cares about is will it go up or down today or in the next hour. He makes a profit on a sxteenth of a point move.

On a morning like this morning the asian/european markets were red. The US had made military strikes. Osaka & company had declared bankruptcy in Japan, the Russsians....well, you know.

The day traders all came in short.

By the end of the day they intended to cover.

That's all.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:39 - ID#43352)
That is most illogical.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:44 - ID#342376)
As I watched the price of gold today move in a range of +/- .10 while the world's stock markets are collapsing, it looked as if the POG had few forces acting on it to move it in such small range. The real picture IMHO, is something more like what happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Remember that two opposing vectors of force, as strong as each may be individually, may still sum up to zero. So my take on Gold is that it may sit for a while longer in this range, but when it goes, it will be explosive. One of the arguments here on Kitco in favor of holding onto Gold Stocks is that if a big move comes, it would be missed. I never gave that much consideration but believe that may be true now.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:44 - ID#242303)
@ Gollum- makes sense.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:46 - ID#295111)
XAU Component Summary

Stock Company Closing Change
Symb Name Price

ABX Barrick Gold 16.56250 -0.12500
ASL Ashanti Gold 7.56250 -0.12500
BMG Battle Mountain 4.93750 -0.31250
CDE Coeur D'Alene 6.06250 -0.37500
FCX Freeport Mc 12.81250 -0.68750
GGO Getchell Gold 11.93750 -0.31250
HL Hecla Mining 4.50000 -0.18750
HM Homestake 11.18750 -0.25000
NEM Newmont 17.37500 -0.81250
PDG PlacerDome Gold 10.37500 -0.50000

Stock Shares Market XAU XAU XAU
Symb 000's Capitalization % Move % Move

ABX 375,500 6,219,218,750 32.88% -0.15 7.96%
ASL 108,059 817,196,188 4.32% -0.04 2.29%
BMG 229,789 1,134,583,188 6.00% -0.23 12.18%
CDE 21,889 132,702,063 0.70% -0.03 1.39%
FCX 180,904 2,317,832,500 12.26% -0.40 21.09%
GGO 30,786 367,507,875 1.94% -0.03 1.63%
HL 55,097 247,936,500 1.31% -0.03 1.75%
HM 211,163 2,362,386,063 12.49% -0.17 8.95%
NEM 156,512 2,719,396,000 14.38% -0.41 21.56%
PDG 250,016 2,593,916,000 13.72% -0.41 21.20%

TOTAL 18,912,675,125 100.00% 100.00%
MKT BASE DIV. 307,356,538
XAU CALC 61.53334251 -1.92

XAU QUOTE 61.66 -2.11

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:47 - ID#384350)
PPT & Barings - Any Similarities?
Why weren't Leeson's bosses implicated even though they were forwarding tons of cash to Hong Kong?

Why did the Bank of England do a seemingly shoddy investigation, come to a "he acted alone" conclusion, and drop the case as closed?

Leeson and the PPT, any Similarities? Think about it.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:47 - ID#295111)
Just posted GOBBLEDEEGOOK!!!!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:47 - ID#284255)
PPT hard at work???

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:48 - ID#252127)
Wooden stakes anyone.....silver bullets?

The US Government has been instructed by "the movers and shakers -or the world based royalty- that controls it" that they must utilize the brokerage and banking industry in a joint effort to keep the markets afloat, thus to reinforce the efforts of the fabled PPT.

In other words, if the average investor goes down the Vampires will lose their source of nourishment and they WANT YOUR BLOOD, by way of USERY.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:50 - ID#401237)
HK Gold

HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $284.75 an ounce on Saturday, down 20
cents from Friday's close of $284.95.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:51 - ID#242303)
G'night all- see you monday pm.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:55 - ID#210114)
Buckler Thesis
Australian dollar gold now at A$485. If Buckler Thesis correct, a move up will be coming this week.

Hold On!!

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:56 - ID#210114)
Beam me up Mr. Scott....
Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:57 - ID#57232)
Repost of Leland's John Crudele post from this AM. Clinton doing drugs in White House?
All: Just in case you missed this, please take a carful gander. First, John Crudele thinks the FED headed off a disaster on this Monday, by repurchaseing $6.82 billion in securities, which he says almost always causes a rally. I think Donald told us about this, but it went right over my head. If anyone can tell me what this means, I would be very appreciative.
Anyway, the point is that the Monday rally was a 'false' one -- and caught me unawares. Fortunately, thanks to Kitco I was able to figure out that trouble was still almost immediately ahead.
All: There is another very important point in J Crudele's post, and that is that Linda Tripp was introduced to K Starr as someone with a story about drug use in the WhiteHouse. J Crudele said that he had a reliable source tell him that this was probably the line of questioning on Monday that caught WJC off guard. Apparently there is more. Kenneth Starr has apparently asked more than one Arkansas State Trooper about 'the day that Governor Bill Clinton overdosed'.

If John Crudele is right about the above, WJC is toast. It will not matter what he has in his FBI files on the Republican Congressmen. It will be interesting to see what happens to WJC. If WJC's shady supporters think he has outlived his usefullness, I would not want to be him for all the money in the world. When you 'sell your soul to the devil', eventually the devil gets what he bargained for.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:58 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated
Heading back down???
Or consolidating like after the Oct fall???

Up volume / down volume ratio chart.
Volatility increasing.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 22:59 - ID#384350)
@Jack, PPT and Barings
I think you understand.

The Queen had very close ties to Barings.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:00 - ID#373284)
the world has not changed...not one bit, pardon the pun...
all that has changed is your/man/woman interpretation of same series events...and you have learned nothing...nothing...we await you...we await you...we await you...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:06 - ID#190411)
Lots of good stuff tonight
Pete, thanks for the 21:41 on Mr. Sanders. I read about him in Chronicles magazine. Many of the Independence types here should look for a copy. It is the best magazine in the western hemisphere.
Gollum's 22:28 is lucid as can be.
Gianni, I'm thinking about it. You might be on to something.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:09 - ID#347267)
Friday Night Again!
Boy, these dog daze of summer are flyin by! 'Specially with Gollum at the controls! Very exciting ride today; last time I felt like that was too many years ago, when I took the kids to Dizney World and we did the "Space Mountin" plunge!

@Squirrel: Rite on as to why we are Kitcoholics. Takes me 1or2 hours to catch-up and I consider it a MUST READ!
@Mtn Goat: Gold Monex ads have been on a week or so; I am SURE it is RJ's doin'!
@Old Gold: Agree; SELL the next rallies.

Friday nite comment: Re Kinross Gold ( KGC ) , Morgan Stanley-D. Witter
initiated coverage today with an "Outperform" rating, which I admit doesn't say much if all miners are going down.. I think we are seeing that the gold miners will follow the market down, at least in the initial phases of the bear. Nevertheless, signs of strengthening
are showing. KGC did not retreat today: ;neither did CEF ( not a miner, a fund holding gold and silver physical ) .

Is there any doubt that we are seeing the track of the big bear plainly? Do not discount the Dow Theory, even though the Dow and Trannies are changeable indices. New Paradigm be damned, the Bubble has developed several large leaks, and I doubt the PPT or RR or AG have enough wherewithal to "fix" them all. If you read what I wrote yesterday, I also believe GM is one of the "belwether's" of this market, representing the blue chips which have carried the picture of the sheeple's market to the recent highs. Now the gigantic head and shoulders formed over the last six months in GM is complete; the critical neckline was broken today:
There will be bounces up from here in the market which should be considered to be rallies in a bear market and all should exercise extreme caution with any long holdings. I recommend either go to cash ( money markets ) or hedge any long holdings with BEARX or RYURX during the fake-out rally which will occur in the coming week or two.
Best regards to all; Mtn Bear

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:11 - ID#384350)
JTF - Fed direct market interventions
The Fed says that if needed, the Fed can inject liquidity in the markets through direct market intervention. The Fed merely prints up a batch of cash ( paper or digital ) and goes out and buys something, "USUALLY" a US Treasury note.

They say usually, but why could it not be shares in IBM, GE, Monsanto, Coca-Cola, etc., or even the NY Yankees.

Crudele said that they purchased nearly $7 Billion dollars of Govt securities. So they in essence, printed up $7 Billion dollars in cash, threw it at the US bond market ( maybe that's why yields are down ) , and will probably shortly lower rates.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:17 - ID#190411)
Gianni Dioro,
What's this Queen of England stuff? Do I smell Lyndon Larouche?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:20 - ID#219363)
Another good way, from years ago - sqr ( 4b^2 ) = +/- 2b, or, 2BR02B *grin*.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:20 - ID#295111)
Trying one more time
ABX-Barrick Gold-CLOSED AT $16.5625 -0.1250 XAU -0.15
ASL-Ashanti Gold-CLOSED AT $7.5625 -0.1250 XAU -0.04
BMG-Battle Mountain-CLOSED AT $4.9375 -0.3125 XAU -0.23
CDE-Coeur D'Alene-CLOSED AT $6.0625 -0.3750 XAU -0.03
FCX-Freeport Mc-CLOSED AT $12.8125 -0.6875 XAU -0.40
GGO-Getchell Gold-CLOSED AT $11.9375 -0.3125 XAU -0.03
HL-Hecla Mining-CLOSED AT $4.5000 -0.1875 XAU -0.03
HM-Homestake Gold-CLOSED AT $11.1875 -0.2500 XAU -0.17
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $17.3750 -0.8125 XAU -0.41
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $10.3750 -0.5000 XAU -0.41

XAU CLOSED AT 61.66 -2.11

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:22 - ID#43352)
@Gianni Dioro__A
So the Fed bought seven bills worth, and various European, Asian and South American countries bought another who knows how many bills worth.

It seems to me the gueage on the pressure cooker is getting up into the red part of the dial....

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:22 - ID#57232)
Thanks for clarifying the Debt Crisis post of PMF
Bill Buckler: Please correct me if I am wrong -- US Corporate grade bonds are in trouble, and sophisticated investors are flocking to US treasuries as being more secure. This is one difference from 1929 I failed to appreciate. Corporate bonds then were fairly secure, though I'm sure some became worthless.

Now -- if everyone is flocking to buy US treasuries, that should make short term ( and long term ) interest rates go up -- right? But -- interest rates went down today. Did the FED just increase liquidity to handle the demand? If so, this sounds very bullish for the US dollar, even if it is long term bearish for the US markets.

El Borak__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:24 - ID#226299)
CC (Total Market Capitalization)
I read recently that the total capitalization of the market was about 146% of GDP ( maybe in the July Contrarian's View? ) , which works out to 9-10 trillion dollars. That was with the DJIA at about 8900, so with the significant drop recently ( especially among non-index stocks ) , it's probably a little lower now. For the record, the average caitalization this century has been a little under 50% of GDP. Methinks we've got a long way to go to reach average, and if this ursa major overshoots ( that's how averages remain average ) , we could be in for a heck of a ride.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:26 - ID#57232)
Jackpot! You make sense!
Gianni Dioro: Understood! And that is why the current selling scare in US corporate bonds did not cause a rise in interest rates -- AG increased the amount of treasuries available so that they could be sold. Just like printing money, I guess. Think he raised our national debt by the same amount?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:29 - ID#45173)
I'm darn tired of flying around but I'm meeting some interesting characters. And if I happen to fly into your neck of the woods I'd be keen to shoot a game or two, even if it means losing, which is likely since I'm so rusty.

I've been preaching to my friends about this bear market since April, and telling my crash-prognosticating pals that no crash will happen. Worse: a slow grinding, a rusty red waggon in a vat of molasses, a sick machine. There's no obvious point to get out, so lots of people hang in there until their money is gone.

But, as you say, it might throw a rod.


Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:30 - ID#347267)
We haven't heard from the Preacher lately; I for one miss his commentary. If you are out there, sir, how about your THOUGHTS at this critical juncture?
Best Regards; Mtn Bear ( rollin th rock for th nite )

El Borak__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:31 - ID#226299)
JTF - Interest Rates
If everybody is jumping into government bonds from corporate securities, that will make interest rates go both directions ( down for gov't and gov't "guaranteed" bonds, but up for corporate borrowers ) . Price and interest rates move opposite one another. Of course, the rates are reflected only in new issues, since once a bond is issued, the rate is fixed until it matures or is recalled.

If Uncle Sam were wise, he'd be recalling all those 1-5 year notes and issuing 30 year ones. Borrowing dollars at 5.5% for 30 years could turn out to be a pretty good deal, imho.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:31 - ID#384350)
Fed intervention & Govt Bonds
JTF, If everyone is flocking to Treasuries, it means that they are bidding up the prices. As the price of a bond rises, its yield goes lower.

Gollum, yep Bonds look like they are going higher in the next few months. Prechter is looking for wave 5 on the Mega C wave, then for bonds to collapse in a liquidity squeeze. I suppose that will be the time to rush to gold. Prechter also said the XAU should have a major low in October. He also mentions Puetz with his 55 day forcast from July's top as a likely date for a crash.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:32 - ID#226299)
@the scene
The day WILL come when the PPT does NOT 'step in'...

mozel -- ???

Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:35 - ID#384350)
JTF The Fed
has nothing to do with national debt, except that it holds a lot of it. It is the Usurer of the US Govt.

What they did was they took US treasuries off the open market, and exchanged cash for it, ie put more cash into circulation.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:36 - ID#317193)
Gold is money to most of the world...cept in merka...
Gold earns sold forward etc., etc. Americans know not gold. The education will be harsh. It is a currency but folks in this part of the world laugh at it when mentioned as money.

Who is right...the people of this new age ( last 27 years ) or the people of thousands of years past? Place your bets folks...time tells all.


(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:36 - ID#43352)
That's the way I see it too. If the wheels don't fall off we'll just grind it out. Probably till near the end of the year.

There are a couple of potential wheel killers, but I don't think any of the ones we can currently percieve will be the one that gets us, if any do.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:37 - ID#57232)
You may still be right
Gollum: Short term -- heading into Labor day -- you may be right that there will be a short term rally. I would also place a bet on APH's insight. Just think what would happen if AG lowered rates, or the markets thought he would. My guess is that he will try to make the markets go down some more after Labor day before he lowers rates.

I think what is far more serious is the following:

1 ) US corporate bonds are in a ( perceived ) crisis

2 ) WJC is toast ( if John Crudele is right about the WhiteHouse drug use ) .

3 ) World-wide financial crisis with Russia down, South America on the way, and Germany teetering unless their taxpayers can cough up cash for investment losses in Russia. They will not be happy about this if they figure out what happened.

4 ) US and UK markets heading for a recession ( or worse ) .

I do not like this scenario one bit. Y2k may be a secondary problem to the above. And much later.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:38 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Bill Buckler -- Investors beginning to see a little 'gold' yet, in your opinion? I.E., do you have an idea why gold sat fairly steady today in lieu of the yen, etc. today.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:39 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...called on the purchase today...making arrangements...hate the paperwork. Do not like them knowing what I'm doing.


Gianni Dioro__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:41 - ID#384350)
Erle, Barings & the PPT
Erle, the notion dawned on me tonight between posts on the matter: WAS NICK LEESON THE PPT?

As to the Queen, she didn't seem to be too upset about losing her money, ING swept up the pieces in taking over Barings, the investigation in the matter was squashed.

Everyone thinks the royals are a nice, harmless bunch of individuals, but really, that family didn't get to rule the world by being a peaceful, non-monied interest.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:42 - ID#57232)
Cash for treasuries?
Gianni Dioro: That means I still do not understand what happened. I am told that there is a financial crisis going on right now where investors want to escape from corporate bonds into US treasuries ( which they can buy with cash ) . How do you explain the fact that interest rates are going down, not up? I sense that we are missing something very fundamental here.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:45 - ID#226299)
@the scene
JTF -- Rates go down as the paper price/demand go up. That's how bondos work.

Steve in TO__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:46 - ID#287337)
Gianni - The derivative contracts that Leeson . . .
was trading for Barings were Yen contracts, not Nikkei Index futures, as I recall.

Anyhow, it was obvious to anybody with half a brain that Leeson was made a scapegoat. He reported his activities to his higher-ups, and when he was making lots of money they were happy to let him continue. When he started to lose money, though, they hung him out to dry.

- Steve

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:48 - ID#227238)
CC/El Borak:
I think the Wilshire 5000 is a rough gage of market capitalization. ... with some zeros removed. Last I saw it was somewhat north of 10k.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:49 - ID#153102)
@Dream Houses @Whose Dream Whose House
More reports from expeditions: Note specie is gold and silver coin. Repost.

What is believed is that people today in buying 'real estate' are buying nothing more than a trust as beneficiary to a trust for real estate. The true legal owner of the land is the trustee who owns legal title and holds the land for the use of the beneficiary. The beneficiary has only the right to the use of said land in accordance to the terms and conditions set forth in the trust.

The trustee has a fiduciary responsiblity to the beneficiary and the beneficiary can enforce the trust by suit against the trustee. Conversely, the trustee can enforce the trust on the beneficiary by suit as well. At all times the trustee maintains legal title [ownership] of the land and can lose it only by alienating the title of ownership. The trustee can sell the property to another who assume and be bound by the trust as fiduciary of the land...unless the new owner had no notice of the existence of the trust in which case the beneficiaries would have no right to the land or use and not be able to enforce the trust on the new owner. [Think hard on that. ]

With the above being stated it is believed the Trustee is the STATE ( as in State of Vermont, not Vermont ) and the beneficiary, the poor bastard who buys real estate. The banks and lending institutions participate in administration of the trust as do the counties and local municipal
governments when the 'loan of credit' is paid.

Therefore, those who buy real estate hold nothing more than 'equitable title' for the use of and not ownership. Courts of equity were created for disputes to the "right of use of" property as common law does not recognize trusts or 'for use of' but only ownership and structured conveyance by the exchange of specie or by hereditary passage.

The basis for these statements on trust are from "Equity and the Forms of Actions at Common Law" by Frederick William Maitland who is regarded
as an authority in forms of action in Equity and trusts.

The statement on the Bill of Sale that states for "Ten dollars and other considerations" would put a dispute arising in the property outside of the common law by deficiency with the provisions for trial by jury under Art VII of the Bill of rights. One could never get a true hearing or trial in Law. Even after personal status could be proved and a court of competent jurisdiction could be found.

We do not have an allodial system anymore, our 'land' system is based
on what is called 'marketable' title, as opposed to CLEAR
title. Another 'benefit' bestowed upon us by our ( non ) benevolent
government 'keepers'.

Participation in this system is VOLUNTARY. Most people
VOLUNTARILY allow lawyers to write up their Bills of Sale, and
have no inclination or desire to learn what the words mean that
are used in them.

The "real estate" that is created can be used as collateral for the county to sell bonds.

Have no reference at hand, but someone in Calif. that posted a cite to a Calif Statute that stated in plain english that any LANDS sold in 'fee simple' were declared to be collateral against the federal debt as specified in the 14th amendment. Citation wanted.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:50 - ID#219363)
I thought it was the reverse.

You've got a bond that pays "X" percent, and it becomes more valuable because the rates drop, and people can only freely get bonds that pay "X - 1" percent, so yours is more valuable, because it pays out more than what the easilly had bonds pay. It's a case of people chasing the highest percentage bond they can find. As I understand it, that's why the bonds are worth less when the rates increase, because who wants to pay a bunch of money for an "X" percent bond when you can probably get the same thing cheaper in a month or two when rates go higher.

El Borak__A
(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:51 - ID#226299)
JTF (You may still be right)
I don't think Y2K is going to be "secondary", it's going to accelerate the trend ( down ) which is already in place, and it's not going to wait 16 more months. One of the insurance companies for which I did an assessment in 1996 will begin issuing work comp policies by hand in November of this year ( the "compliant" system will not be in until March ( if ever ) , but renewals which expire in 2000 go out at the end of October.

Y2K will get real ugly real fast. I suspect we may see a catastrophic ( and well-publicised ) failure before this market gets down much further. It's going to exacerbate the downward trend, and companies which have publicized problems ( they've happened already, but have not been catastrophic ) are going to find their stocks mercillesly savaged by this market.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:51 - ID#424394)
TYoung - for most of human history
Humans walked - rather than rode.
Thus shall we go back to walking.
And foresake these unnatural ways of getting around
the horse, the buggy, the automobile, the ship, and the airplane?
If folks had been meant to fly the skies...
If folks had been meant to ply the oceans...

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:53 - ID#43352)
Yeah. Things could get dicey. I kind of think the apprehension of the y2k thing will be a bigger thing than the thing itself. The market has always been more fearfull of the unknown than of even the worst thing that had a face.

The dollar is already rather tight. Commodities are down. Foreign currencies are down. And so forth. Just like the dollar was becoming more desired than Indiana Jones's rarest find. If now corporations needing cash are facing a bond crises just when markets are getting pretty bearish things could get even tighter...

In a way this isn't too bad, it just means we are pretty well nosed over and rapidly approaching that small window of opportunity that the Fed must pull back on the stick and increase the throttle.

I would have thought a couple of more months, but events seem accelerated now somehow.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:54 - ID#226299)
@the scene
envy -- Isn't that what I said? The rate and price go in opposite directions. Nuff said.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:54 - ID#57232)
Increased demand for treasuries reduces interest rates offered by the seller
Gianni Dioro: Thank you for clarifying. It must be clear to you that I know little about how bonds and short term treasuries work. I must remind myself that interest rates are offered by the vendor of the security so that he/she will get buyers. I got it backwards.

So it now makes more sense -- both the FED ( and investors worried about the safety of corporate bonds ) are buying US treasuries. Therefore interest rates are going down for two reasons. QED.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:55 - ID#219363)
Don't commit sacrilege, I'm getting ready to replace my stolen motorcycle.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:56 - ID#190411)
Isn't the simplest answer sometimes the best?
The headlong rush to USG paper is from those that percieve the central govt. as being a guarantor of this paper, at the expense of those in the US that didn't hire the "money". There will be a reckoning.
We the people will keep our little list, just like Santa. We know who is naughty and nice.

Buckler seems to say that an opportunity is at hand for physical. Agreed?

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:56 - ID#226299)
@the scene
An excellent article written by Jude Wanniski at this site:

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:57 - ID#219363)
Actually, I don't even know if what I said was true. Yeah, they go opposite, nuff said.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:58 - ID#238422)
Very good, brother Tom. You gonna love this thing.
Let me know when you get it. Paperwork is worth it...
Do it today, tomorrow it may be illegal.

(Fri Aug 21 1998 23:59 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- Yupper. Not many in this country anymore that own squat. Hell, have to pay a tax to squat!