You make some good points, but I disagree with you on the price of gold for the basic reason that I am reasonably certain that AG will lower rates, if not in the next week or two, then at the next FOMC meeting, especially if the equities markets continue to tank. I would not be surpirsed of a drop of up to 100 basis points. I don't think he believes that this policy will work, since it will drive up long term rates significantly, and may result in repatriation of dollars as holders of long term debt see this for what it is in the face of a balooning money supply: devaluation. OTOH, it may buy some time for the markets, maybe enough time so that AG can step down before the s**t really hits the fans.

Got a problem.
Keep it to yourself.

Many here enjoy those Global alert posts.

Have a nice day and buy yourself a put or two.
Who knows you may end up smiling.

EB: You can trade those commods from the long side based on seasonal tendencies if you want. But you cant do it with my $$. If those things REALLY worked, Jake Bernstein wouldnt have to travel around the country, stayin in cheap motels and eatin bad food to make a buck runnin seminars. Ina deflation, wverything except some forms of debt and some currencies will go DOWN. Later the debt paper will melt away , too. Then your AU and AG will shine.

pdeep: Fed will CUT rates soon. Maybe tomorrow. DM and SF announced it loudly Friday. Too little, too late. Greenspan is senile. And a coward. He knew over 2 yrs ago what needed to be done, but he feared that he would become a victim of "Arkancide". So he fiddled and faddled ( and diddled ) and kept his office and his perks, and may have just facilitated the demise of Western Civilization. What we have now is a DISASTER of the first order. Gone to bed. Good luck all.

I hope that was a joke. Don't show ignorance, buy some rubles. Many enjoy the work Sharefin does and some, aware enough, profit

This idea on 1 bil. in gold Russian coins is an old
proven way for SOMEBODY to make some money, and has nothing
to do with turning to gold vs. U.S. dollar, sorry to
dissapoint you, Kitco brothers. Gold rubles, if ejected
into circulation, will be out of circulation the next day.
Majority of those coins will be grabbed by a few rich
folks, connected to SOMEBODY, to help them to preserve
their capital in face of coming ruble inflation and possibly
some restriction on use of the U.S. dollars or other "hard"
currencies. That is how it's going to work...like usual.

Classy Russian one time deal for "New Russians"...

I do not think any of us here on Kitco appreciate your following post to someone who shares and we highly respect.

"Sharfin Try using your own brain? If you have one? Better copy another 10,000 words of none Gold related fecal matter."

An apology would be nice.

Donald: you know history... step up to the plate.

where do you see silver settling? 3.50?

With many currencies being battered on a daily basis, what's to stop investors whose currencies are still partially whole from buying gold for investment or insurance purposes?

The purchase of 2500 tonnes ( 80.4 million ounces ) of gold would cost $22 billion at todays price. World wide $22 billion is a drop in the bucket.

Relative to insurance, an ensuing drop in gold to $250 would show a loss of about $2 billion from the $22 billion figure and gold can still turn positive considering the currency situation.

Introduction to : Domestic Preparedness site created and maintained by the
US Army
and Presidential Decision Directive #39
http://www.cbdcom.apgea.army.mil/Missions/dp/dp_cbrrt.html

My response:
I was suprised to see Portland OR get it's "Army Training" this past April 6-9
On the list of 120, we were in the first doz to get "shown" how things are
gonna be
when the "terrorist/biological warfare/nuclear attack/accident" occurs.

Keeping in mind this domestic preparedness is a euphenism for "Y2K" as well
acc'd to North and others, I was quite stunned to see that only 337 people in
this metroplex of one MILLION plus are in charge of what's gonna happen,
on both sides of the Columbia River as well as the port right into downtown
Portland,
which just today commissioned the latest Navy Attack Destroyer in public
ceremony
attended by all kinds of bigwhigs here.

I have friends in LA basin, so I checked to see if they'd been trained
yet...the answer
is YES and they have only 167 people in charge there...and I know they are
bigger
than Portland.

L.A.'s Training Report from the Army Chemical and Biological Defense Command:
Held: Nov 3-6, 1997
http://www.cbdcom.apgea.army.mil/Missions/dp/aar_la.html

This is serious stuff, folks... I know we get lotsa URLs that we are told
to go read up on...
but if you have folks that are planning on staying in the city, at least
spend an hour on this website
in the next 10 days and print out the information provided there in...mostly
surprised the Army
is being so "helpful" and "candid" about what they are up to...So when the
shit does hit
the fan, you can tell your family and friends where to go, 'cause the lines
of communication
are going to be for shi* but the chain of command is already established in
a town near you!

BTW, I know D Wayne Holt didn't recommend me as his best source to do
confidential gold coin and placer gold business with,
BUT I AM SUCH A SOURCE, and have been for about 25 yrs now.
It's just that Wayne had already bought his from that other fellar
before he knew I existed, right Wayne? ( vbgrin )

O/49r

Take it for what it's worth. I get my seasonals from a variety of sources, JB being just one. I don't trade using ONLY seasonals. I use a variety of indicators. If the seasonals back up what I see than I am MORE inclined to trade. Whatever works. That is all. $$

Print the list and track them for one week.......then we shall see. TICK-TOCK, TICK-TOCK........

.....the Hep says gold at 3-2-5 on 11/11. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm..... ( ? ) . ( I don't see it myself but stranger things....... ) ...

away...back to the couch



btw...

JB's seasonals said SELL Dec S&P the 28th for 76.9% .......... ( hmmmmmmmm ) ............ ( cha-CHING$$ ) ...

INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Saturday, August 29, 1998

Wall Street analysts are almost universal in their belief that this is just a correction.
We can't agree...

1 ) Both Thursday AND Friday saw 23% of stocks on the NY Exchange hitting new yearly lows.
Historically there have been only 85 days in the past 37 years that have seen 23% of
stocks hitting new lows in a single day. 80 out of 85 of those days occurred in an
official bear market. And remember, this week just saw -2- such days.

2 ) In discussion with ECRI ( Economic Cycle Research Institute ) this week, we were told
that their Long-Range Forecasting model for the U.S. economy is actually in WORSE shape
than in the 1990 recession - EXCEPT for consumer/investor confidence. In other words,
"confidence" may be the only barrier between this economy and recession.

3 ) The pain in this market is FAR GREATER than the picture portrayed by blue chip indexes.
For example, the Russell 2000 Index is already off -27% since April. So most stocks have
already confirmed a bear market.

4 ) IF a "crash" is a possibility, we are now AT the most critical threshold. In both 1987
and 1929, the Crashes struck within several days after the DJIA dropped through a -13%
loss. Friday, the DJIA closed at -13.7% off its peak.

Contrary to Wall Street consensus, we have very real concerns that what we've seen thus
far is the tip of the iceberg. If this is just a correction, then why is leadership still
accelerating to the downside? If the correction is just about over, then why did our
Emerging Markets Composite drop another 7% this week; and why does gold seem to be
suggesting a deflationary freefall?

Bottomline... IF we are going to see a "crash" scenario, history dictates that the NEXT
300 points down is the point at which it will start. That is when public "buy-&-hold"
turns into "cut-&-run". Now is when psychological risk is highest.

For that reason, the first few days of next week are critical to the path of this bear
market. Short-term indicators are past due for a technical bounce; but if the market
instead heads lower, it's likely to accelerate.

Not likely that the Fed will soon cut rates - but the threat of it should give gold a bounce soon ( reflation? ) . About the only Kitco gold bull for tomorrow is APH ( see below if you missed it ) and he's more right than wrong.

Date: Sun Aug 30 1998 20:21
APH ( PM's ) ID#255226:
Bought Dec Gold Fri at 277 and Dec Silver at 4.75 with stops just under Friday's lows. I maybe a day or two early we'll see. My last silver trade long at 5.03 stopped out at 5.06.

oldman - I am not a gold bull. Haven't been for some time. But watch for gold to bounce........it IS pretty oversold.........uh huh. I am waiting for the rally to sell it AGAIN.

away...to the couch w/ velcro boxers



against the dollar. Currency price moves often give early signals of what interest rates are going to do - they sense ahead of the rest of the market what is coming. In this case, probably a lowering of the interest rate. I would guess small, since AG still hasn't seen the desired end of irrational exuberance. But the money market has already factored that type of a decrease in and something has to happen to bring the bonds and the street into synch. I can't think of why this might affect the stock market this week in a positive way.
OK boys, this game is for keeps, and its time to put your money on the table. No more talking or bluffing. Short the Dow or spoos and ride it down this week - you hold three aces and nothing is wild against you. What is wild will be the size of your pot.
It does help, though, to have ice water in your veins, doesn't it.

If you get Oldman's silver call, who are you going to believe, his or Martin's.

TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar fell against the Japanese yen early Monday amid profit-taking triggered by uncertainty about the outlook for stability in Russia and on Wall Street. Japanese stock prices were mixed. The dollar bought 141.40 yen in early trading, down 1.92 yen from late in Tokyo on Friday and also below its level of 141.85 in late New York trading Friday. Dealers cashed in dollar holdings on lingering concern about the drop on Wall Street last week and the dim outlook for political stability in Russia, traders said.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn00.htm

China
Shanghai Composite
^SSEC
11:31PM
1079.660
-50.062
-4.43%
Chart
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
12:30AM
7354.42
-475.32
-6.07

The next Shoe to drop?

HighRise

"...so bottom line, we wouldn't be surprised by an early Monday dump once again, and as long as the 7880 level holds we are expecting to see a fairly decent rally intra-week."

He's a good technician.

He also states "...we suspect that once the contra trend rally shows signs of fizzling out that another great bout of selling will ensure."

8/30/98 -- 10:22 PM

Gold in Hong Kong opens higher


HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $274.75 an ounce on Monday, up $1.20 from Saturday's close of $273.55.

HighRise

He kept the US$ tooooo high, toooooooo long. The speculators tore the guts out of the rest of the worlds weaker currencies....so blame it all on Rubin...

Usually, people WOULD buy gold when their currency shows signs of trouble. But lately, they only seem to be selling. The Dollar is King. Anyone with assets to protect is buying Dollars in one form or another. This cannot last forever. When the U.S. does finally get sucked in, it will have to try to inflate. That will mark the time to go into gold. I think there is a good chance that gold could be between $200-250 at that point. My guess is that it will be pretty obvious when this starts to happen. I give it a couple of years.

Last, Y2K could throw a monkey wrench into the whole deal. Who know what kind of chaos our computer might cause us?

Quickies on Sunday!
http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

HighRise

August 30, 1998

More crosses, mass celebrated near Auschwitz defy Polish church

OSWIECIM, Poland ( AP ) -- With grunts and anti-Semitic comments, Polish nationalists planted two more crosses near the Auschwitz death camp Sunday in defiance of Roman Catholic church leaders.

A priest from a Catholic splinter group then celebrated Mass and blessed the more than 150 smaller crosses standing near a larger cross in a field bordering Auschwitz.

As they worked, they complained that Jews controlled the government and the church. None would give their names.

The Society of St. Pius X is an international order started by French-born Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre, who was excommunicated in 1988 for defying liberal reforms of the 1962-65 Vatican Council.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Poland-Auschwitz-Crosses.html

I see your point that commodities will take further pain as a U.S. bear market envelops the economy at large.

As domestic demand and production slows with the coming recession, steel, oil, grains, etc. AND GOLD will have diminished demand.

Where I wonder if your analysis might not apply so well to the commodity of gold in particular is a substitution effect whereby severe economic downturns and money repayment uncertainties create investment demand, offsetting the decline in jewelry demand.

Russia and India's floating of the idea of a gold based monetary system is no longer a relic from the past. It is floated by current global financial market participants, albeit, ones who appear to be "losing". Old European money believes in it and Warren Buffet has bet on precious metals while turning bearish on equities. Middle Eastern oil intersts also hold gold dear. Even Alan Greenspan holds gold in esteem if not in action.

I feel the strong possibility that other countries will follow suit with Russia now that the stigma of being the first nation to default on it's sovereign debt has been broken. Indonesia has already threatened as much. Many nations will have to face this POLITICAL decision of enslaving their populations to the western nations over the repayment of unpayable debts ( due to devaluation, deflation, and depression ) or simply default through unilateral rescheduling of payment amounts and terms.

If U.S. money supply contracts due to the collective defaults of several nations, then loans will have to be called in. This is already happening as seen in the divergence between rates for U.S. corporate debt and U.S. government debt. A credit squeeze due to repayment concerns can happen simultaneously with lower interest rates. Scared money is heading for the safest haven of government debt of strong nations. This may be why Japanese monetary policy is not working.

Monetary easing therefore does not erase the fear of non-repayment of loans. People suffering due to currency fluctuations will see the virtue of gold. Debt repudiation almost guarantees that people will look to gold for security.

I just found a little shop near my office ( in Hong Kong ) selling numismatic coins and banknotes. The dude there speaks no English but he has a nice spread of bullion silver coins and some rare Hong Kong coins. I think I'll diversify a bit from my gold and get some old HK coins that have the Queen's head on them instead of the naff flowers we have nowadays.

Also, does anyone know the market rate for Australian 1oz Silver "Kookabura" coins, or any other silver bulion? He is selling them for HK$100 ( US$12.90 ) which is way over the spot price. Is this normal? Gold coins are just a few dollars premium to the spot price. How does the silver coin business work? Are they a good investment for hoarding?

Wish I could hear you play. If I was in the L.A. Area, I would be there.The next time I am in the L.A. area, I would like to meet you.

We had a great time at the Kitco meeting at the Swan View Inn on Long Island August 15th. Kitcoites in attendance were Tolerant1, Reify, Mike Sheller Crystall Ball and of course myself. Many of the worlds problems were solved that day ( 1800 Cuervo really is the best.

In October I will be in Terre Haute Ind. Oxford Ohio & Knoxville Tenn. if there are any Kitcoites there, would enjoy having a cup of coffee with you.

I believe talking about all this is interesting - but I'm much more interested in what people are actually doing, it shows they will commit to the what they're saying ( isn't that what my g'friend complains about ? ) . Anyway, this is my actual strategy: Started weeks ago in cash, with 2 percent on the line as gamble on PUT options against specific stocks. Ended Friday in cash, the 2 percent had grown to 7 percent and I'm still holding the PUTs. Expecting a rally, maybe this week, hard to say with all the volatility, but see more upside on the gamble down than I do downside holding PUTs through a rally, so plan to hold them and keep on holding them ( I know some people who got "burned" selling their options too early last week ) . I'd rather lose the 4 percent gain, even the original 2 percent, than be wrong about something that has the potential to be much bigger. If we see a rally, I'll watch closely and won't be looking for a top, instead I'll be watching PUT prices for specific dates/strikes until they fall to a level I've already determined, then I'm going to buy into it with up to 5 percent more. It's worth it to me to risk 7 percent of the principle for what could potentially be the "trade of the century" - I might be upset if I lost the 7 percent, but I'd be right down suicidal if I missed out on the down-side. Another reason for being willing to risk a little more is that weeks ago it wasn't at all obvious that the market would drop, but now that I've beat the house once, I'm feeling a little mox, and I'm gonna throw the dice with a few more chips on the table. I have no intention of risking more than the 7 percent, and the rest stays in cash. I don't put all of my money into anything, well, maybe a mattress, but nothing else. If you risk more than 10 percent on the Bear at this point, you've got more mox than I do and I salute you for your courage.

Longer term - I don't expect the FED to lower rates, don't ask me why, I can't really say. To me, bonds are a losing bet, even in the relative short term, so I won't be there. Precious metals are falling, but I don't think there will be anywhere else to go for capital preservation, so I think they'll be a good buy ( unless I'm wrong about the rate drop ) . Where else can investors go ? Foreign stock ? Currencies ? Bonds ? Bull-Investor Rehab Centers ? Precious metals are it, especially if the dollar starts to drop off, and it may have already topped. So anyway, at the slightest hint of a Gold bull, my cash will shift into the precious.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
August 31, 1998
01:14AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
275.10
275.60
+1.00
+0.36%


HighRise

COMMENT: Since late last year, I said the days were numbered for the bull
market in US stocks. Looking back over the past few weeks, it sure looks
like a bear market. If so, what's next? It depends on the Fed. The markets
now seem to be expecting a cut in the fed funds rate by year end. I agree,
but it might come later rather than sooner. In this case, I see the Dow
falling further to about 7400 through October, especially if the Fed fails
to ease at the Sep. 29 meeting. At the Nov. 17 meeting, the Fed might
decide to ease in time for Thanksgiving. The Dow could soar back to 8000 by
Christmas. It could trade in this 7400-8000 range through the first half of
1999, then crash to 6500 ( or lower ) during the second half on deflation and
Y2K worries. Stay invested in government bonds, and avoid risky assets.

SUBSCRIBERS: Monday afternoon, look for the latest GLOBAL PORTFOLIO
STRATEGY on the "Flight to Quality." Risk spreads in the corporate, junk,
and emerging debt markets are widening as the global recession proliferates
and worsens. Last week's GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS called on the Fed to
"Please Ease Now." The latest GLOBAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING shows that the
industrial economies are on the edge of deflation.

PUBLIC: The Aug. 19 GLOBAL Y2K ACTION CONFERENCE was a huge success: Very
informative discussions with all 44 Y2K experts and nearly 50,000 listening
to the live Internet audiothon. Rebroadcasts are available at
www.y2kactionday.com. I've updated my netbook, "Year 2000 Recession?"
Chapter 2 includes my new Y2K REPORTER, "Year 2000 Energy Crisis?" which
will be posted late Monday afternoon.

north Korea just fired ballisitic missile into sea of japan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/default.htm

sorry, at bbc world news
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_161000/161513.stm

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/korea_miss_2.html

Maybe a warning about their ability to deliver nuclear payloads?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/tokyo_stoc_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/hk_stocks__1.html

BILL IN OREGON, EB, ed al: Wish you could be here. Perhaps I will get a tape of it to send or maybe another local Kitcoite will do it for you. I know that last year EB taped it and sent the copy to Goldbug 23. Hey! EB ya comin' down this year? Maybe it's too short notice. Anyhow, I hope we can meet soon. BTW, I neglected to mention that the performance will be in the 'Bing' Auditorium at LACMA for anyone interested in attending. I've been a lousy e-mail corresponder with al my Kitco buddies - just too much to attend to. Please forgive and understand my not writing to y'all. Will try to be better.

Oh - almost forgot! My prediction about the rate cut hasn't happened yet but if the Fed does cut interest rates anytime soon, I get credit for calling it first! OK? ( :- ) ) Otherwise, just forget it.

Really missed my cyber pals the last few
days. Excellent reading tonight. With one
exception-- The jerk/idiot/cretin who
criticized sharefin. Sharefin is one of the
most respected and valued posters at Kitco.
His generosity and hard work are appreciated
by all here. And BTW, it WAS on topic.

It is my great privelege to announce the one and only indicator that predicted the 1929 Wall Street Crash has now been triggered again, for the first time since then.

1929 was the only time, until last Saturday 29 August, that the Australian wallabies succeeded in beating the All Blacks in every game in a Rugby Test Series. Australia won all three games in the latest series, the first time for 69 years. Last time this happened it caused the Wall Street Crash.

The "Black-wash" index hence has now been triggered, and a general market crash is inevitable within a few weeks.

I am just glad noone took me up on my wagers, I would've lost every single one.

Remember, you heard it first here.


Thanks Bart for re-opening the Kitco Sanitorium for Gold Bugs.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/bis_banks__1.html

Since the door to the Temple of the Cult of the Dead Bull has been shut, I have spent some time at the Temple of the Cult of the Dead Cow. The new Windows remote administation tool produced by a member this cult, Sir Dystic, and marketed as "Back Orifice" is a hoot. Read the press releases and responses, but be careful there. "Back Orifice" is free. Reportedly, 100,000 downloads have taken place. If there is a video cam attached to a "Back Orifice Server", a remote administator can control it and see what it sees. "Back Orifice" also logs keystrokes. In short, "Back Orifice" gives the remote adminstrator more control over the computer than the user at the local keyboard.

The Cult of Central Planning and Control is suffering setbacks on the global front as the New World Order falters, but it is alive and well in the minds of the elites on the national front. There may be enough true believers left in Russia to pretend to form a government. The more important question is whether or not there will be enough belief among the people for another round of sloganeering and terror to make them work. I think I would be long on vodka in Russia.

The Cult of Central Planning and Control is alive among the elite in the West, too. Some watch Greenspin, some Rubin, some the President. There is disagreement about which is the most reliable indicator of what central is planning, but no debate that planning emanates from central.

What is yet to be grasped is that America's misallocation of resources has been as gross as that caused in Russia by the political placement, expansion, etc. of factories in Absurdistan. In America the misallocation has been driven by Acts of Congress issuing from the Tax Code Committees of the Congress instead of by decrees issuing from the Central Planning Comittee of the Soviet. Labels and supporting rhetoric disguise the fundamental sameness.

The fundamental difference between the Cult of Central Planning of the West and that of the East has been the fiction of double entry accounting kept up in the West. And pretenses of pricing freedom. But, how soon we forget that wage and price controls, advocated for Russia by the Communists now, were attempted by Nixon in the USA in the 70's. According to ROR, Nixon was simply early in his timing. Wage and price controls strip away the facade that the economy is capitalist or free enterprise and reveal the reality of military scrip and command and control. The West has state sponsored corporations without capital and call it capitalism; the East has state sponsored bureaus without capital, but they call it socialism.

Fundamentally, people in the West still do not understand that debt cannot be paid with debt. That there is nothing in the banks but debt is too much for the mind to hold, apparently, and people escape into the familiar chat of double entry bookeeping. But, the banksers and governors know what the asset is that has been collateralized for the credit they issue. It is the land of the nation and the vehicles. When the market value of the land and improvements and the vehicles is less than what is owed, the nation is broke. GNP only measures debt service capacity, not collateral.

America and Japan have been like two real estate developers conducting sham transactions and sham appraisals to take to the bank as collateral for loans. The governments of both countries have been doing it both internally for their own account and, jointly, externally for mutual enrichment. People are prone to overlook that the capital improvements in Commumist Russia were the product of slave labor. The work lives of pwople were donated for the creation of improvements and other fixed assets for the "nation". Actually their labor, their life savings, accumulted wealth in the hands of bureaucrats and politicaians. People are even more prone to overlook that the same thing is happening in Western countries. Westerners got goods and Japanese got goods, but both of their governments have accumulated buildings, lands, computers, and weapons, spent current revenues, and are still owed giant I.O.U.'s from their people. The goods wear out, become obsolete, or are lost or destroyed. But, the debt remains accounted for to the last penny. And the fixed assets accumulated by government have a longer life than consumer goods. The people have actually worked for nothing other than their life style from hand to mouth. Their savings are just debt and in a matter of months or a few years their things are junk. People know all this in their bones. That's why vain attempts to escape from it constantly spring up in America in the form of artificial collector markets like those for beanie babies and baseball cards and toby mugs and depression glass. Even the rich play the collector's lottery with art and antiques.

Debt not only is accounted for to the penny, but it grows and that is counted to the penny, too. But, the value of the collateral is not fixed. It is calculated according to the most recent comparable sale value. If that is 50% of the collateralized value, then what ? Then the paper promises of the nation are revealed as fraud. I think then there is a struggle between the government and the people as to which of them will be starved of substance. And land cannot flee, nor vehicles evade police equipped with radio. The disadvantage of having a tax home as your only home is that it won't keep the rain off or the cold out.
There is no moat deep enough to keep out foraging tax collectors, I think.

A gilded bird in the hand is worth infinitely more than credit for birds in the bush when nobody believes there are any longer any birds in the bush.

Gold is a great buy now, and will be in the futher. I prefer
the 1 oz maples. I just bought 10 at $275.00 and will buy 10
more for every $5.00 down. I will keep the rest of my stash in
cash and lots of food, generators, and guns.

As to YK2:
My cellar is not filled with canned foods or a back-up generator and has no arsenal of AK-47's adequately supplied with the proper firing power.

I'm feel convinced that humanity has managed to survive without computers for thousands of years and will find its way with or without their help in the near to intermediate future.

It is my belief that the Y2K type is a desperate gold bug, who rather than see the natural event of gold's dominance, is more intent on pushing the envelope, which in effect signals him out as anti-sociable, to the effect of simularly implicating those who believe in gold, but without the macho bullcrap.

This is not to say that the average citizen should not be prepared for possibilites, but to advertise one's position is stupidity as it puts a focus on one plan for survival and may implicate him unsocialble behavior while the real intent was self reliance and self preservation.

As for debt based currencies and their effect on real things, the bastards that control our societies have gone quite far at the expense of the public, but this is a problem that the public has to solve.

Is that Hepcat prediction for real? 3-2-5 on 11/11?

A unique fellow, but with some accurate predictions the last two or three times he has sneaked in.

As I have said in the past, I believe the Oldman is a shrewd trader, although he was late in recognizing the Bear Market this summer. However, I remain firmly convinced that his assessment of gold and silver is completely off the mark.

As I have oft mentioned in the past, I always felt that goldbugs would fail to recognize the paradigm shift when it finally arrived. In fact, to date, I have been proven correct.

The paradigm shift in general equities was NOT sparked by goldbugs nor bears. It was sparked by ultra-bull Ralph Acampora...it took a major stock Bull analyst to concretize the paradigm shift we are now witnessing. No surprise there. Goldbugs and chronic bears are members of a minority and I always contended that the paradigm shift MUST be instigated by a change of heart in the leading members of the majority, namely the general equities bulls. Why? Because, essentially, goldbugs and bears have had next to ZERO credibility this past decade. Sharp analysts like Puetz have beem mocked and derided an dismissed as effective retards.

On the other hand, a fellow like Acampora has been heralded as one of the Stock Bull's demigods. Not because his analysis is so astute or well-educated but simply because, with a combination of corrupt government intervention in the markets and a good deal of luck, he has proven to be correct. So, when a fellow who commands such reverence amongst stock bulls turns bearish, THAT is a major event!

As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general market. So discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping their gold equities....in some cases, even their physical. Again, this is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift. However, it should come as no surprise that a time lag exists between the start of a general equities bear and a real substantive gold bull.

First, people must ACCEPT the reality of the general equities bear. Once acceptance takes place, then they must do some research and investigation as to alternative bearish investments. Naturally, their own financial advisors push bonds and Utes as flights to safety, at the same time continuing to extoll key bullish investments. However, once these various, purported flights to safety prove to be as susceptible to a downslide as equities, then these same disillusioned investors will begin to listen to the "fringe and/or peripheral analysts."

For example, since I have been bearish for some time, as such I am a member of this lunatic fringe. I am well aware of the standard reactions to this "lunatic" bearishness. People raise their eyes and look far off into space when you attempt to explain the paradigm shift that is occurring and will continue to develop. Yet, now I am seeing evidence of the paradigm shift slowly developing into a populist fever. I am receiving more and more phone calls from people who, in the past, listened politely to my analyses at best or simply chose to cut off all communication with me, regarding me as a doomsaying oddball. Today, these people are calling me up for opinions and analysis. Their own investment advisors appear uncertain, confused, and nervous. They no longer recommend equities with heart-felt conviction...they're not really certain about bonds. They're not really sure Clinton is good for the country or ever was. Basically, as they see their world crumble around them, they're not sure if up is up or down is down anymore.

So, people are calling and they're asking, "Where do I buy gold and silver? How should I buy gold and silver?" It is really an amazing phenomenon to see, given that so many of these individuals would normally have shunned me if I walked into a room.

Yet, when they call me, they find that nothing has changed. I still speak with full conviction that PM's are the ONLY flight to safety in the new economic devolution spreading across the world. I still extoll various gold and silver producers as inevitable beneficiaries of this flight to safety. I still state categorically that NOT all paper will burn in a market crash...it NEVER did before, why now? Nothing has changed in my perspective. I am solid as a rock ( as Bob Seger would say ) and people gravitate toward analysts with pure unqualified conviction. It is all part of the paradigm shift.

Falling demand for gold in Asia or Europe? Falling silver demand in India? Big F*ing Deal!! It will be more than made up for by an amazing surge of PM demand right here in N. America and Europe as people clamber for an investment alternative to collapsing equities and bonds. Rest assured that the bonds bubble will burst, independent of the direction of interest rates. With an equities market collapse, many companies will become insolvent and unable to make payments on their bonds. Many statea and local governments will also become insolvent and fail on their payments. The resultant panic in the bonds market will prove devastating.

As an alternative investment which acts as a hedge against global currency chaos, GOLD and SILVER are it! Deflation, when it triggers pandemic currency crises, CANNOT result in the negation of gold and silver in the long run. There simply are no other historical flights to safety available.

Finally, One thing I speak of with the utmost conviction is this: last Thursday, the gold shorts piled on when gold broke technical support at 278. It was NO accident. Gold was ALLOWED to break technical support; it did not do so on its own momentum or of its volition. Very shortly, we will see a consortium of CB's, power players, and institutions bid gold through the roof. So, unfortunately, the upsurge in gold shorting was a major and fatal mistake for the funds that did so and, shortly ( I would guess within several weeks ) , they will ALL be wiped out.

Repeat. They will ALL be wiped out.

I say this without qualification and without a shadow of a doubt.

GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up.

Yes, it is true that commodities fall during deflations. However, what the PM shorts never fully understood is this: gold and silver never were, and are not, and never will be mere commodities.

There never was a NEW PARADIGM.

Just go ask Acampora.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/korea_miss_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/japan_ltcb_1.html

Many thanks to Bart....."dont it always seem to go, that you dont know
what you got til its gone".

A few minor observations-
This forum occasionally reminds me of a really old Star Trek
episode. Kirk and Co. are in an underground chamber on
some distant planet. They meet the few survivors of an
advanced civilization, who have the form of pure intelligence
encased in some sort of energy field with flashing lights
and the usual crummy 60s special effects. Anyway, the
aliens speak with great wisdom and civility, as they have
had millennia to get their act together. Although they are
disembodied, their personalities and vast experience are
clearly conveyed. With a few possible exceptions, kind of
like Kitco-ites.

Re Oldman, AG may have known better, but he is caught up in
forces far more powerful than he is, and I too think Rubin is
closer to the center.

Re gold and equities, I think that this could indeed be
the start of a US equities bear market, its global this time, and while Clinton and the boys have done a bangup job bamboozling the American
public, I am not so sure that it work in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. On the other hand, I am firmly convinced the the POG is going nowhere except perhaps down. The Fed/CBs/et al are resolute in their commitment to fiat currency. The global economic system is built
on confidence, no threat to that system will be tolerated.

My expectation is for gold and real assets/products to rise coincidentally with the dollar's fall this time, becuase of the following:

1. Labor demands on pay are allready being met. The dollar can't rise more against such a trade deficit ( 2.5% of GDP and growing ) as the US carries and its mountainous external sovereign debt ( 50% of GNP ) .

2. Imports are at better than 14% of the economy. They are only at that level because of the decline in currencies vs. the dollar. Had the dollar remained stable since 1995, the cost of these imports would have been 17% of GDP.

3. Greenspan's historical reaction to big shocks to the money supply ( 1973-4 oil shock and stock crash, 1987 stock crash ) were inflationary and immediate.

4. All these factors exacerbate each other in a way that creates inflation at the first signs of trouble in the US ( bear market decline ) .

5. Additionally, in the funny world of overleverage, interest declines translate into mortgage declines that turn into refinancings and new construction. This adds to the inflationary factors. At 6% of the economy, this is another area due for inflation.

6. Asian needs to refill raw material inventories to continue the current level of export volume ( 30% over last year, heading straight to our shores ) . Will create a price increase in commodities through demand.

7. Once the FED is spurred into action in order to save the financial system by inflating away emerging market and US financial, consumer, commercial and government debt ( total of about 200% of economy ) , following a stock crash ( this Mon or next ) , the FED will put all fear of inflation aside and pump money.

I believe it is only "flight to quality" into the US that has prevented inflation from appearing through import prices. Otherwise, our inflation would have been in the 2.5-3% range without inflationary expectations and 4+ with them.

My technicals ( to come later ) still indicate that the deflationary argument is correct at least up to now, Indicated by the CRB, xau and POG breaking support instead of rebounding from it. However, all gave a first reversal short term reversal signal yesterday, following what seemed to be a capitulation phase ( otherwise I would have dumped most of my gold equities ) . Unfortunately, I also have a short term stock market bounce indicated as well, which I didn't react to, because it seemed not to show up on my internet stock short, in spite of CNet's great earnings surprise.

The ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available at http://www.drd.co.za/.

The optimists are beating a retreat on Y2K. There is nothing holding the line but public relations flacks. Nature abhors a vacuum and vacuums of leadership are no exception. Unfortunately, filling voids takes time, the very thing Y2K won't compromise on. Given that the elite in America know nothing but worshipping in the Cult of Central Planning and Control, all the effort has been going into bolstering central. This is disaster in the making. When the reality of our prospects rises to full consciousness, the best part of the American people will be going in one direction toward innovation, ad hoc, and self-sufficiency and their government in another toward procedure, rigidity, and control.

Someone once wrote that America is good because her people are good. Whatever measure of goodness there has been in the American people has arisen from their Christian faith and practice in all its variety. In Europe and Asia, this facet of America is regarded as naive and treated with slightly concealed ridicule. In the middle East it is seen as insincere and hypocritical infidelity.

Leadership in America has been undermining Christianity for a long, long time. Scientists and official education policy have debunked it as superstition. The unions have debunked it as ineffectual, corrupted, and posturing. But, from more than anything Christianity in America has suffered by being used and manipulated by those with a political agenda. Time and again the self-righteous have been recruited to help a secret selfish interest have its way in the world. To prohibit. To regulate. To control. Do gooders. I think it is fair to say the leadership positions of all denominations here have by now been captured by these social evangelists for whom church work is one campaign after another. This is what has been exported as democracy. After all, what is an ISM but a series of meetings, committees, lobbyings and the like carried on for the purpose of having one's way in the world by legal force. Doctrine is become the handmaiden of politically correct objectives.

This has had an effect. If you take the calls to talking heads as a sample, there are a great many people in America now who have no notion of right and wrong. Lewinski was employed by the Emporer in his palace. Boiled down, what happened was he allowed her to suck his dick for her breakfast. It's surprising how many people find nothing wrong with that on the grounds that the Emperor is entitled to sexual privacy. And, is otherwise doing a good job helping them have their way with the world by legal force. Free school lunches and the like. There is still a separate standard for Emperors and school teachers, but for how long, who can say.

The vast majority of Americans no longer know their heritage, no longer understand their Constitution or government, or even know the meaning of law. In some less sophisticated places, there are some who still know right from wrong and retain their dignity in practicing the distinction. Among the elite, it is the exception. There, the rot of relativity has consumed to the core. Among the defeated and enslaved, it is unknown. The uncertainty of the quantity of good people remaining is what makes planning for Y2K so difficult. Given a preponderance of degenerate people, the situation will certainly degenerate.

If there is a discontinuity in the infrastructure that modern life depends on, the technologies of today will be mostly useless in short order. Petroleum in particular has a long and complicated supply and production chain. And gasoline does not store. One should look to the last century for technologies that do not require infrastructure to make the labor to sustain life less onerous.

I remember a long time ago one of my econ profs saying, in the short run politics rules, in the long run economics rules. Yes, "they" will try to keep a lid on the POG and it will work for a time, but not forever. And when the whole thing blows as a result of our derivitive culture gold will come back as king on the hill. All IMHO of course.

Let me add my thanks and renewed appreciation to Bart and all the folks that make Kitco.com happen, including the great posters, many of whom were found around the internet asking "what happen to Kitco". It is obvious this is a valued sercie. My only hope is that Bart is able to find the resources to keep this stage lit.It's the best.
regarding my two cents worth on the markets - extrapolating from what seems to be the best thoughts I have read. Relief rally in the works for US stocks, won't last long or go very far. Interest rates to remain unchanged until sometime in the 4th quarter. Dollar failure of Friday being corrected tonight. Precious metals up a little with the stock market then down, diverging if the dollar index takes out Fridays lows. ( 99.63 seems to be crtical reversal point. ) Best strategy seems to be to lighten up on gold and related securites into a rally in gold back to 278 and silver to $4.85, while looking to short the high PE stocks, like KO.

Bearish sentiment in stocks is very high but as earler said this is a bear market and negativity will be the order of the day for the foreseeable future.

Frankly, not many of us are going to get rich is this unraveling of the world's financial system. Gold doesn't look to be the promised savior - at least not for now.

I'm generally not very religious but I find myself thinking that this is a time for prayer for all less fortunate than ourselves.

The best hope is that a return to stable real money may avert the hardships that would otherwise befall the world's population - the fear is that if such a solution couldbe effected our geovernors wouldn't know it if they saw it or support it if they could.

Yeah Nick. We know. You bought more gold shares.

Well, you see, there's all this talk about the Russians dumping gold, Nickel etc. from Norilsk.

Yeah Nick. What about it? They need to sell anything they've got to raise hard cash.

Well I reckon they haven't got any. Gold and nickel that is. The gold is either hocked for credit or in deep freeze to give some hope to the rouble.

What do you mean they haven't got any? They produce 6 % of the world's nickel and a whole lot of gold.

If they had any more nickel, they would've flogged it by now. Same for copper, oil etc. Ain't no reserves. All gone for hard cash.

Prove it!!

Don't have to. The market has panicked and is plumbing multi-year lows in hard commodities. Over-reactions always bring rebounds. Just like a bungee jump.

So what did you buy today Nick?

Well there is this Aussie miner with a very large lateritic nickel mine starting up next month. They are predicted to be the lowest cost nickel mine in the world by 2000. Also have two very large gold mines. Aussie $ gold and nickel look a lot better than in US$.

Did you get a good price?

Mate, they are giving shares away with your corn flakes.

So what are they called?

Not supposed to tout stocks here, mate. BUT, if you ever see a mythical beast with a man's head, arms and legs and a horse's body--jump on. Quick.

Here's a list of Japanese banks and their world ratings.
From Ed Yardini.

2= Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
9= Sumitomo Bank
10= Fuji Bank
11= Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank
12= Sanwa Bank
13= Sakura Bank
18= Industrial Bank of Japan
32= Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan
33= Tokoi Bank
39= Asahi Bank
57= Mitsubishi Trust & Banking
65= Sumitomo Trust & Banking
79= Daiwa Bank
82= Mitsubishi Trust & Banking
88= Shoko Chukin Bank
93= Shizuoka Bank
98= Chiba Bank

Must be a lot of debt, all up, amongst this bunch.

Its legs look like a horse's too.

Well said - I wish I could disagree with you but I can't. There is a lot of reeducation that needs to take place in the world. If it isn't brought about by an economic debacle, the Y2K problem should do the trick, or both.

Dave ( looking at a jar of rabbit droppings sitting on the table ) : 'Hey Dad, what's in the jar?'
Dad: 'Well son, they're called smart pills.'
Dave: 'Can I try some?'
Dad: 'Sure, go for it.'

Dave throws a couple into his mouth, chews and then spits them out in disgust.

Dave: 'These pills taste like rabbit sh*t.'
Dad: 'See son, you're getting smarter already.'

I must have just missed your query on Friday night , bad weekend for Rugby Otago and the Blacks both losing , I live in Whenuapai now but still suppport Otago rugby , .....now if we could get John Hart a job with Allen Greenspan .....then gold would go .
Nick ( I guess you are an Aussie ) congrats to the Wallabies , where can you get a chart on this Centaur Beast ??

I hope they run MAC's - in their offices
And not CAT's - in their machines
Nor rely upon outsourced powrr supplies?

Also that they don't follow RIO's shutdown policy.

Caution abounds?

Several months ago I declared the decades long War on Gold by USG, dating back at least as far as FDR, had been lost. The overt policy of USG from the time of the Jamaica accords in the 70's was to eliminate the Role of Gold in international monetary matters. When the Europeans announced that gold would be a reserve in the ECB, this signalled defeat for USG's policy. It has always been that the monetary Role of Gold determines the Value of Gold.

Now, that gold has a public monetary role again, the world is like the United States in the period folllowing the War of Northern Aggression. The gold holders are in position again to devalue the greenback just as the Europeans in 1869 via Gould devalued the greenback. The POG is beyond the control of USG. The ROG, VOG, and the POG in greenbacks will be determined by the people who hold the most of it. I buy gold because I can.

Good to have another Kiwi here. We had another one but he threw a wobbly and got chucked off the site. You are not allowed to tell crude jokes or tout gold shares. That is why I would never post scatological jokes or mythical beast's charts here. If you draw a wiggly line and then let your pen go off the bottom of the paper, you'll get the general idea. If you've heaps of cod, there is a fortune to be made at this particular point in history. I predict that more squillionaires will be created out of the coming devastation than at any other point in history. The masses paper profits will one day meander over to the holders of hard assets ( in ground and out ) .

Sorry about the all blacks. They were 'as good as gold' for many years. All good things come to an end, platitude, platitude, etc.

Welcome to Kitco. Would appreciate more Kiwi input. Though come to think of it, there is another guy over there who posts now and then. Can't remember his name, but he said something intelligent last month....

I have been long physical for some very long months , dont really like paper at all but .....maybe some mining shares , trouble is can you trust the directors .
OTHERS ....is it correct that LMBA is trading average 10,000 Tonnes per
day or the entire world above ground supply every 2 weeks ??? The POG really is the price of paper . Kiwi radio talkback host last Friday .... suggested kids in the streets will be playing marbles with gold .... ....paper darts from Hathaway Berkshire shares more likely methinks .

Y2K will be part of the panic situation. The ASX, in its wisdom, required all Aussie companies to provide reports of their Y2K compliance procedures. Aussie miners have looked into it in detail. I'm not saying there won't be any glitches ( power from outside scources etc. ) , but this panic just creates a better buying opportunity. Hard assets are selling for way below fiat values. A$ and SA rand crashes have made for the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Not many will take advantage of it. Those that do will go through severe trauma before it all pans out. Those with 'true grit' ( thanks J.W. ) will emerge as the holders of financial and political power in the aftermath.

lefty
G'day theLBMA does about 1,000 tonnes per dayin paper gold. About the same as the world produces every four months.

If the kids are playing marbles with gold, I'll be out there beating the shite out of them ( sorry tolerant1 ) but, before the gobmint blames their parents I'll have whipped out my fourda and sweeped the pools.

Suggest you listen to Morning Report at 06:50 and 07:25, have been updating Au and Ag daily, also getting other commodity prices too.


You're a Mainlander! Lived around the Otakau harbour myself for a decade or so..now within eye-line of Rangitoto & that damned casino sky tower. John Hart outski? What's your take on my Black-wash Indicator?


Nick@Canoeloadsof_stralianpaper
Well, you're one crazy stryne. Thought you'd sucker me with a bet after the game had finished? Well I'll take it now.
Did ya see my post about pawn-brokers ( don't throw *them* on the barbie ) the other day? Cos I kinda think you're gonna get punished again. bad juju out there..

kiwi came back as a ratite. he's still here, dressed as an extremely large & extinct chicken.....or at least that's what his new handle means in proto-polynesian.


I'm just glad things are different this time around. Wouldn't want to share the follies of the Romans, eh?


"The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman
world, were all considered by the people as equally true; by the
philosopher, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally
useful ."
EDWARD GIBBON
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

G'day mate.

so you bought the mythical creature's paper. hmmmm.

true, it does seem that they're giving away those scripts with the pop-tarts.

myself, i've been looking at NDY warrants ... closely. ( can't decide if that's enough risk for me poor heart ) - almost going free with the popcorn, imho...

also watching those gold and crude calls closely ( listening to the experienced options traders, eh, EB/cherokee? )

hoping for a ... ahem ... major "correction" ... in major markets in next 2-3 weeks. won't bet the farm on it though. still opportunities for short term rallies ( *sigh* ... why won't it just give up like it's supposed to? )

HK market - govt. seems to have given up the market manipulation. down 6% today. HMMMmmmm...... where is the bottom now?

for some strange reason, neither asia1.com.sg nor quote.yahoo.com is reporting the S'pore Index quotes for today

and I thought that the S'pore market would remain open throughout the Malaysian National Day celebrations...

'bit creepy.

( sorry abt. last post - HK market's down 7%, not 6 )

ravenfire

"We've arranged a civilization in which most crucial elements
profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also
arranged things so that almost no one understands science and
technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away
with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces. "

Or short term bounce. Globex pointing up. PM's in London pointimg up. Day traders preparing to jump in.

What about all those margin calls?

morning skipper
All gassed-up and ready for take-off.

Perhaps lefty kiwi should be checking flight-readiness, as he's living out by the local airport base.

Friend of mine bet a work mate All Blacks would lose four in a row . Would not be required to mow his own lawns for 12 months , gave his workmate a double or quits chance on Saturdays game now doesn't have to mow his lawns for 24 months .
What do you think of all these US gold bugs buying guns ? They should just sell their overpriced ( USD denominated ) real estate and migrate to NZ . YK2 hits in the Summer , plenty of Barbecues . Hey all you Americans our country is the same size as UK and Japan but only 3,500,000 people , plenty of food , I dont eat red meat myself but there are about 15 sheep each i think , good fishing , Ample hydro electricity , Global warming is turning NZ into a Tropical Paradise without winters ... and there is still gold in them thar hills .

another Carl Sagan fan :- ) . g'day mate!

Carl and Ayn - interesting reads. great visionaries, if a little too political for general consumption.

in the end, i suppose you're absolutely right in quoting that phrase. we indeed deserve what fate we end up in. a society that depends on high technology and yet largely displays ignorance about how it works ... well ...

I'm not a doomsday soothsayer like Gary North ( he's just a tad too far on one side of the see-saw ... ) but whatever sequelae arises from Y2K, we deserve it - it's entirely a fault of human qualities ( or lack thereof ) .

crash in September, crash in October ... whatever. i'll drink to that.

Yes, I have to agree with you, but love to tout my cautiousness.
- note I did not say Centaur@commonsenceness.

Truly some goldbug's delights are squirming in the dust and dirt.
But I would like to see this coming correction gone and a bit more reality bite the bullet re Y2k.

Mozel made some very pertinent points re Y2k.
The reports coming through are becoming more alarming.
Many are squirming in their seats and back peddling at a furious rate.
Much is being deliberately withheld.

Because they know what's going to happen when the truth escapes.
Who is going to support these companies products,
When they find the companies will have great trouble surviving.

How many companies will be denied funding for their large projects?

Much will change between now and mid-2000.
Caution is needed as well as being fleet of foot.

There may well be bargoons galore at the moment.
But my guess is there will be many more soon enough.

I have to agree with Oldman in his opinions.
I have been bearish on the POG for a long time now.
I can't see it stopping it's decline till after we crash.

Paper debts will be repaid with real assets.
And these paper debts have only just begun to burn.

Oldmans comment on 1/3 to 1/2 of today's wealth dissapearing,
Reinforces my belief, that this epoch has only just begun.

No debt, being cashed up and cautious,
Will make many changes of fortune,
For those who are ready to move.

But not quite yet I think.

Sharefin@sitting_on_the_fence-watching_and_waiting

Ah, so we're going up Captain? I think you may be right, but I also think that the amateurs will be out today, perhaps enough to make for a wheels-up landing, sir. The Fed may be standing by with extra foam.
-EJ

lefty kiwi--only 14 sheep each for eating. ravenfire-NDY calls will buy you a house in Vaucluse. that other kiwi feller--it ain't over till the fat lady sings. how about 6 in a row?

mozel
"I buy gold because I can."

Yes! Yes! Yes!

I was asked, a week or two ago, by a friend of beautiful jewels' over lunch why was the gold rush of 1849 so different from anything before. The answer I gave, was because it was the chance of the ordinary person to own gold. Because they could.

The triumph of the individual over the state/sovereign/priesthood.

It was wonderful talking of gold to this beautiful, intelligent New Zealand born Sri Lankan accountant. She truly understood when I explained about the FDR, and quickly grasped the signficance of the Asian Meltdown. "How did it start?" was her first question.

It is because of your posts, and many other sages@kitco, that I have learned the truth of these evil paper usury notes. My thanks to you.

FDR=FRN

TLA's R US

The last two weeks of violent market activity have found our
models and strategies well positioned. After remaining at 7 since
8/3, the signal strength dropped to 6 after the close this past
Friday. Our Graduated Strategy still has a 25% allocation in
stocks. Any further drop in the signal strength would move this to
a 0% allocation.

// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 6 ( on a
scale of 1 to 20 ) .
***
Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% in stocks since 4/21/94
Graduated Strategy - 25% in stocks, 75% in money markets as of
8/3/98
Timing Strategy - 0% in stocks, 100% in money markets as of 8/3/98
SuperBear Strategy - 100% in money markets since 4/24/98

// -- COMMENTARY -- //

We have just had two dramatic weeks in the market, but the outlook
this weekend looks remarkably like it did two weeks ago when we
last published. Back on 8/16 we said that the market was extremely
weak, but also very oversold. We were expecting a short, sharp
bear market rally, and we also expected that rally to fail and
would be followed by more selling and lower lows.

That is indeed what happened. In the two days after we published,

the DJIA rallied 385 points. But the rally failed and the selling
continued. As of the close on Friday, 8/28, the DJIA has dropped
14% ( 1,316 points ) from its highs on 7/20. The SP500 has dropped
13.7%, the NASDAQ is down 19.2%, and the Russell 2000 has fallen
22.7%. There is little good to say about the current market. The
downdraft has now built considerable momentum that will take a
while to turn around. The market internals have been very weak and
many of our internals indicators are confirming the new price
lows. Last Thursday more than 27% of the stocks on the NYSE were
trading at new 52 week lows. Another troubling sign for the market
is the relative ease that the market has been falling through
major support levels.

However, just like a couple of weeks ago, it looks like we are due
another bear market rally. The sentiment has turned very bearish
on Wall Street and Main Street. We are starting to see some
genuine concern about the market, and it seems many of the bulls
have thrown in the towel. Since sentiment is a contrary indicator,
the current doom and gloom is bullish for the market. In addition,
the market is extremely oversold. Bear markets, like bull markets,
do not travel straight in one direction and this bear will have
rallies. We expect one soon, though it may come from much lower
levels. How soon? We would be surprised if it doesn't come this
week, probably early this week. Bear market rallies are usually
very powerful, even violent. This one will probably leave those
who sold wondering if they should have held on, and those who held
on starting to feel pretty smug. But just like two weeks ago, we
expect this rally will fade and we will soon see more selling.

lefty
now you're talking dirty. Clean your mouth out. You just let the cat out of the bag on godzone.Terrible place! Noone here. Nah, they'd be far better in Mozambique, so says Blanchard, and who am I to disagree.

If you've been lurking for a while, you'll have noticed that they have some very strange ideas about guns, these merkans. Love 'em actually. But they think differently from real people. And they do get offended by some things that we'd piss ourselves laughing about.


I'm very glad your mate who's getting his lawns done through to the next millenium didn't take me up on my wagers. I was offering a beautiful NZ silver dollar ( fantail ) for whatever they had. Nooone took me up.


wanna game of indian poker?

...are the buy of the century is very simple. The Aussie $$ is at all-time lows. Why?? Simple. We have a freely traded currency. The Asians don't. The big hedge fund 30-something year olds in the US need to dump on somebody connected with Asia. The Aussie free market is a perfect candidate ( small and easily traded ) . They have dumped so hard that they have BADLY overdone it. The market ALWAYS finds true value--eventually. Aussie gold shares at record lows. Aussie currency at record lows. The two make a potent investment combination. Aussie economy will prove to be the Rock of Gibralter. The value here is absolutely screaming!!!

The upward move to come will leave you breathless. Most of you will sit there like stunned mullet while the buy of the century runs away from you.

PRIME RULE OF INVESTING:

When the newspaper headlines are screaming SELL/PANIC/DEFLATION and all the weak hands are bailing out--IT IS TIME TO BUY. There will never be a better time.

Now, now...pickin on children...shame on you...

finally turns up, ALL golds will shine. But the public does not
know about forward selling, and Australian golds are hedged to the
hilt. Because of this, the bottom line of Australian gold producers
may not reflect the share prices for some time. For some gold
producers, a dramatic rise in the POG is the last thing they want!

But because the public does not know, there should be a run up in
Australian equities too.

maybe you could phone me some time , I am the only surname beginning Reie
page 1056 Auckland phone book . Do you know many other goldbugs in NZ .

Nick I agree Aussie currency and gold shares underpriced , but like Gold may get cheaper yet .....

Has anyone got any thoughts on who is buying the big volume gold ...USA ?? JApan ??? Swiss ???

tolerant1
I knew I'd get in trouble for that one. However, ahhem, I should like to first note that the age a child reaches adulthood is entirely culturally dependant.
WHere adulthood means that the individual is responsible for his actions.

In some societies that age is marked by a ceremony, a breaking of pottery, a tattoo, a cutting of hair at puberty. In some societies it is merely the age at which the child can fend for herself in food-gathering for sustenance. In some societies in depends on voting age, and in others it depends merely on birth into this sweet gold ( that's the world ) world.

I shall game with anyone. Roll the dice with whomever can grasp the importance of a game of marbles. ( Dice with Death ) Though in my country all gaming *debts* are unenforceable at law, as are all commercial contracts with a minor, possession of gold ( because one can ) is the whole of the law, with a tip 'o the hat to Timothey Leary.

Yeah
I'm going to count sheep too. Only 14 per person?

Russia Faces Strong Hurdles To Selling Its Commodities

By NEIL BEHRMANN
Special to THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
LONDON -- Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to boost exports of its commodities, but not for a lack of trying. Observers expect the beleaguered nation to do its utmost to increase sales in an effort to raise foreign exchange. But since Russia's commodities arsenal is in the ground and not in warehouses, its firepower will likely be limited, analysts said. Indeed, with the exception of nickel, palladium, platinum and diamonds, Russian supplies of commodities may well fall in the coming 12 months, they said. Russia also has huge reserves of oil, aluminum, copper, gold and strategic minerals such as vanadium, manganese, chrome titanium and cobalt, dealers said.

Logistical Bottlenecks

"Despite its urgent requirements, the country cannot meaningfully increase export volumes because of severe transportation and logistical bottlenecks," said Richard Harrison, Russian specialist at London
stockbrokers T. Hoare & Co. Mining and oil companies will find it difficult to finance purchases of expensive foreign-capital equipment with devalued rubles, he said.

"After the Soviet Union broke up, sales from longstanding military and industrial-metals stockpiles flooded Western markets," recalled Robin Bhar, senior analyst at Brandeis ( Brokers ) Ltd. Now, with a few exceptions, Russian stockpiles are virtually depleted, so there's little leeway to raise exports, he said. Russia, which is producing about 220,000 tons of nickel a year, or about a quarter of the world total, is
already selling 220,000 metric tons annually on world markets, Mr. Bhar said. Its annual aluminum output of three million tons accounts for about 15% of the world total and the nation is currently exporting 2.5 million tons a year, he says.

Little Change

Assuming no significant deterioration in the Russian economic climate, there will be very little change, Mr. Bhar said. But that's a big if, he said, and there's a risk of strikes and riots during the Russian winter,
dealers said. In those circumstances, prices of nickel, aluminum, palladium and platinum could soar as Russia struggles to deliver supplies, dealers said.

"It is quite unpredictable," said Trevor Pitts, manager, platinum market at Standard Bank London. Since the beginning of 1997, palladium and platinum quotes have gyrated wildly because Russia stopped delivering metals for lengthy periods, Mr. Pitts said. Following a shortfall of Russian shipments during the summer, the market is expecting a surge in deliveries in coming months, he said, adding: "But who knows?

Up 3.43% at this time.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Ejgai&d=v1

Europe mixed.

Aussie golds were down sharply again today. Those who bought will be happier tomorrow.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/rockwell/980828.excom_what_is_terro.html

NZ to increase its reserves 2 fold.
Double or nothing?
Also US reserves mentioned.

~~~~
Reserve Bank readies readies for 2000
http://www.idg.co.nz/nzweb/ac66.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rolling back the clock
In reverse-gear going forward in time.
~~~~
Bug could gridlock millennial travel
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/y2k/y2k0829.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Millennium bug: a cause for panic?
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/98/08/31/timopnolt01005.html?1733620

http://www.infotech.co.nz/august_31/nxlgb.html

There are a few around

http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html

Does yesterday's wildly gyrating price remind you of something?

I have seen charts like this before. If memory serves me right ( which it may not ) , this sort of action presages a sharp move in the other direction. But then, whom in his right mind would buy gold right now?

Me.

The Xau will not confirm the next upspike in the POG, because it will coincide with the S&P BEAR now in full swing. This will be a stealth POG rally, ( Just as the DOW's rise has masked the decimation in broad stride occurring in the Wilshire/ Russel since March of this year ) , as the great unwashed & uninitiated will be spell bound waiting for a turn & then confirmation of the POG spike by the XAU that will never come, until the Gold Bull has taken POG to a level, say $360, by Oct. 31 . Of course, at this level, The Joe Six/Soccer/Mom ( that's JOSSOM ) crowd, will still be mow/mowing in disbelief & waiting on that counter retracement of 60%. It too will never come, as POG spikes again by FEB. 99, to say, $460/660 minimum. The S&P 500 redemption Tsunami will "initially" drag all S&P components down in this redemption panic, once the Dow has slipped ANOTHER 5/10%. ABX, FCX, HM & NEM which heavily overweight the XAU, but also comprise part of the S&P 500, will get wrecked in the first great tidal wave of S&P Index Fund, across the board redemtions. This is ANOTHER compelling arguement ( Along with lomming demise of the USD ) for choosing RSA/Aussie mining companys here as the best value/currency risk vehicals available.
All, ofcourse, IMHIPO, as I remain,...,

Y.O.S.,


TAR BABY

August 31, 1998

Gold as a Safe Harbor? Not This Time Around

By TERZAH EWING Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

If commodity prices in general have been dropping like stones, precious metals, and gold in particular, have been sinking like boulders.

And trading in Friday's markets offered no respite. As the Bridge Commodity Research Bureau index of spot prices slipped 0.89 to close at a 21-year low of 195.35, the key December gold contract fell $2.20 to
$277.90 a troy ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. October gold, the front-month contract, settled at $275.40, down $2.10. Of course, gold wasn't the day's only poor performer.
Grain prices continued to sink, with December corn at the Chicago Board of Trade settling down 4.75 cents at $2.0175 a bushel. December copper, a key industrial metal, fell 1.95 cents at the Comex to settle at 72.15 cents an ounce. And October natural gas, in the midst of a weeks-long decline, fell 5.2 cents to settle at $1.664 per million British thermal
units at the Nymex.

But the accelerated fall of gold, traditionally seen as an investors' safe harbor in times of financial uncertainty, has been especially dramatic. Last week alone, December gold shed $10.80, including a $5.80
fall on Thursday. And through Aug. 21, the contract, which opened at just below $400 an ounce in late 1996, already had lost nearly a third of its value. The metal hasn't seen prices this low since 1979, when levels nearing $300 an ounce were all-time highs. "It's just been a dog of an investment," said Ted Arnold, metals analyst for Merrill Lynch & Co. in
London. Mr. Arnold doesn't think gold's lot will improve soon. He expects it could bounce as low as $200 an ounce, though short-term rallies to as high as $300 an ounce could interrupt the continued fall. "I'd advise people to sell into those rallies," he said. As with all suffering commodities, gold's tale of woe began with Asia's financial crisis. The metal's price first fell below $280 an ounce in January, then recovered before slipping again. In June, gold began moving in sync with the Japanese yen's shifting relationship to the U.S. dollar, which traders take as a proxy for Asian buying power. That wasn't good news for gold, either, as Japan's fortunes remain in doubt.

As Russia's problems took center stage in the financial markets last week, they moved to center stage in the gold pits as well. Russia's announcement last week that its central bank planned to lease, not
sell, part of its gold reserves proved bearish when most of that gold ended up in the hands of sellers. Now, analysts say, rumors abound that the Russian central bank itself may soon begin selling in an effort
to shore up its reserves of the coveted U.S. dollar. George Gero, senior vice president of investments at Prudential Securities in New York, said he believes that had any other country entered such a crisis, it would have been bullish for gold. Investors, he said, would have turned to the yellow metal as a haven once again. But Russia's central stores, and its
hunger for U.S. dollars, prevented that. "This is the first time in years where you've had economic and political conditions that would dictate a gold rally, but actually didn't cause one," he lamented.

And the final straw for gold, and the impetus behind its slip on Thursday and Friday, was a slide in the Australian dollar. Australia stands behind only South Africa and the U.S. among the world's biggest gold-producing nations. As the local currency fell Thursday night to 55.25 cents, the lowest level since it was floated in 1983, gold's price spiked as high as
500 Australian dollars. Australia's gold producers began selling the metal, reaping what amounted to a windfall for them but only exacerbated gold's slip in U.S. dollar terms.

The Australian currency recovered a bit by the end of trading Friday, to 56.69 U.S. cents, but for gold, the damage was done. "Australia really was the straw that broke the camel's back," said Kevin Crisp, vice president at J.P. Morgan in London, who said many of the producers were putting on new bearish gold-price hedges.

To be sure, not every one in the industry thinks gold is done for. Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group in New York, doesn't think gold will dip lower than $270 an ounce and could recover to $310
an ounce "after world markets stabilize. Fundamentally, the market is still cheap, and a lot of what we saw was short-term technical selling," he said.

But Mr. Gero, a 19-year industry veteran, thinks things could get still worse. "This is like Murphy's Law," he said. "Everything bad that could happen to gold has happened. And the biggest whammy from a fundamental point of view is that the traditional gold investor doesn't have to turn to gold to maintain purchasing power because of the strength of bonds
and the [U.S.] dollar."

sharefin
Yup. I heard that the RBNZ was going to make more paper available ( a bit like King Canute making more sand available to the flowing tide ) last week. I mentioned it to a couple of people, their eyes glazed over.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^jgai&d=b

...are also screaming value at this time. This due to depressed currency, depressed gold shares, and soon to be bumper profits.

It has recently become a lot cheaper for Japanese and Germans.

The Aussie dollar is recovering. Miners will sell less forward as the currency recovers.

Nick@cannaseewhatyousee

I buy gold, not paper gold, mate! stralia's got an election just announced, that's got to add volatility/distrust/anxiety to your stock market. I mean, who knows what Pauline Hanson the real/the imagined could have on your currency.


Do you, or any stralian, know the %ge of your equities held in merka?

Who'll dump what equities now the All Blacks have lost a test series to stralia for the first time since, you know, the BIG ONE. ( Well there's been others that wer bigger than 1929, but noone's talking about them.---I'm reading about the Railway bubble of 1840's, kewl )

nytolTeddo

Flight conditions still look very favorable. Long term bonds down. Market futures still up. Most currencies down except Canadian dollar. Metals up.

I think it will be OK to book passengers day. Alert the ticket office and the flight crew.

Silver

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/req1.html

Gold

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/golde.html

Crude Oil

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/crudee.html

US dollar Index

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/usde.html

Treasury bond yield

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/yielde.html

CRB Index

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/crbe.html

Market maven and analyst Clif Droke was one of the first to call the
BEAR MARKET.

Analyst Droke observes "The long-awaited bear market has finally arrived. While not making its presence known in singular fashion as we might have expected, it nonetheless has given us every indication that it has wandered into the U.S. equities market and has no intention of leaving anytime soon. It appears to be making itself right at home."

"foreign markets are experiencing the ravages of the bear right along side of us, ( though many countries are feeling its strength more than we are at the moment ) ."

"And the Nasdaq stock index of technology-weighted shares fell even more dramatically to 1635 by week's end, wiping out over 10 percent of its capitalization in only a one week period."

"At the very least, 7700-7800 seems like a reasonable near-term support target before the Dow's next correction."

See his LATEST report at the following URL- as usual it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke083198.html

Just popping in to say hello. Am annoyed to admit that it's us Aussies who have killed gold in the last week. Silly stuff really, make a short term profit but undermine confidence in gold in the long term.

Sad to see gold not rallying in times of crises.

Writing's on the wall for goldbugs.

See you in 12 hours.

Live Long and Prosper.

launch into the Sea between Russia, China & Japan ! You remember thse are those wacky lovable guys who Boy Slick is building those 3 light breeder reactors for. By the Rocket's RED GLARE anyone ?
US intelligece has yet to confirm early reports that the cone of the Dummy Nuclear War Head contained the N.K. Minister of Agriculture in the most daring & spectacular defection attempt since Mikail Gorbachev left the Bolshevic Party & took Stanford by storm !
"Starving Rats of the World Unite !"


Y.O.S,...,


TAR BABY

http://markets.tradingtech.com/Metals/GC/GCDaily/GCD/GCD_0.html

Identification: WAVE5

Password: TTI

( Both in all CAPS )

The following quotes from this am's "THE VOICE OF KITCO" should give a clue to those not yet having one. There IS a center of power; the figure heads who appear to be in control are really doing the bidding of those members of "the 300" really in charge. It was not in the interests of "those who create great wealth for themselves" for
AG/RR/WJK ( and the other world figureheads ) to act until they were properly positioned.
Someone else said "POSITION IS EVERYTHING". This is because TIMING DEPENDS ON POSITION. Do you not see that the collapses around the globe resulted in creation of wealth for the FEW at the expense and suffering of many?

mozel:
The Cult of Central Planning and Control is alive among the elite in the West, too. Some watch Greenspin, some Rubin, some the President. There is disagreement about which is the most reliable indicator of what central is planning, but no debate that planning emanates from central.

Silverado:
Re Oldman, AG may have known better, but he is caught up in forces far more powerful than he is, and I too think Rubin is closer to the center.

oleman:
Fed will CUT rates soon. Maybe tomorrow. DM and SF announced it loudly Friday. Too little, too late. Greenspan is senile. And a coward. He knew over 2 yrs ago what needed to be done, but he feared that he would become a victim of "Arkancide". So he fiddled and faddled ( and diddled ) and kept his office and his perks, and may have just facilitated the demise of Western Civilization. What we have now is a DISASTER of the
first order.


Re oleman's comment on AG; I do not agree AG is senile. He very well may be a coward for the reason stated. Are there may here who do not feel that Hillary is just as power hungry as WJK? Why else would she still be where she is? She just may be the conduit through which "CENTRAL" controls the actions of our triumverate AG/RR/WJK.
She is certainly in the proper position to do so. I still have the picture in my mind of AG sitting beside Hillary during the inauguration. And the infamous "special meeting" with WJK/AG/RR in the White House BEFORE this market collapse started.

Markets: Short term rally starting today with gold participating.

When Gollum A&A takes no regular passengers - bearish
When Gollum A&A flies it's experimental planes - very bearish
When Gollum A&A takes on passengers - bullish
When Gollum A&A gives free rides to children & widows - very bullish

Silver with sigma bands

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/req2.html

S&P 500

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/sp500e.html

S&P 500 with sigma bands

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/sp500b.html

Toronto 35

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/tor35e.html

Toronto 35 with sigma bands

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/req3.html

Nikkei 225

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/nikkeie.html

Australian All Ordinaries

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/ausorde.html

German DAX

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/gdaxe.html

French CAC-40

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/cac40e.html

UK FT-100

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/ft100e.html

I shorely trust that thar Gollum feller an his smarts in flyin them airyplanes;
but I shorely think airyplanes is risky biznes in STORMS like we is ben havin lately!

Even Peter Lynch is now saying that bonds could outperform stocks over the coming months, James Blanchard reports his friend Joe Bradley interviewed John Templeton who apparently said that the US stock market could decline 50%. WSJ today recommending munis as underpriced ( as opposed to the long bond and are mostly owned by locals, not foreigners ) . I still say that this is the process we really want--that people should own the gold instead Central Banks and governments. Once more gold is in the hand of individuals, individuals will be able to make a difference without government intervening so much. The cheaper gold goes the more we can buy, bullish for us, the people.

put their heads together ?

I agree with you that gold will fly, but I am not sure about the timing. I still think that the strong dollar will have to run its course before gold will make its move. Do you think it is possible for them both to gain strength together? I do not know how long this dollar cycle will last, but 1-2 years is my guess. After it is over for the dollar, gold may be the ONLY safe haven.

I think that generally, gold bugs are pretty good at recognizing paradigm shifts because they are willing to think for themselves. The one thing they are bad at is predicting gold, because they like it too much, and you should never fall in love with an investment. This stock market bear was easy to predict for anyone not brain washed by the media, and I believe the eventual gold bull will be easy to see also for anyone who keeps their eyes open and keeps reading Kitco.

Good pick-up from the WSJ. I quote:

But Mr. Gero, a 19-year industry veteran, thinks things could get
still worse. "This is like Murphy's Law," he said. "Everything bad
that could happen to gold has happened. And the biggest whammy
from a fundamental point of view is that the traditional gold
investor doesn't have to turn to gold to maintain purchasing power
because of the strength of bonds and the [U.S.] dollar."

Conversely, gold will maintain it's purchasing power when the purchasing power of bonds and the dollar falls.

Why do you suppose it is lost on most investors that a bottom in the dollar price of gold and a top in the buying power of the dollar are indicators to buy gold? Ah, well. More cheap gold for me. For now.

-EJ

Nationally-syndicated journalist Rick Ackerman conducted the
following interview with Robert Prechter for the San Francisco Examiner.

Exactly sixteen years ago, with the Dow Industrial Average wallowing in thedoldrums near 800, Elliott Wave theorist Robert S. Prechter tweaked Wall Street's imagination with his prediction that the most spectacular bull market in history was about to begin. And so it did, right on schedule, with a seismic lurch in mid-August 1982 that forever etched itself into the memory of anyone who was working in the trading pits, as I was. In the decade that followed, with the Dow ratcheting inexorably toward Prechter's once seemingly unattainable target at 3600, his influence and fame became legend.

Prechter is not only a bear, he is a GRIZZLY BEAR!

The tantalizing interview may be read at the following URL. Delete extra "en" letters In word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ackerman082898.html

You and I must be looking at different wind socks. From where I sit it's flapping in a south wind and the radar flashes with blobs of wind sheer.

I'll get on with ya, but I think the flight's gonna be different. Many men once bravely riding the back of a bull pronouncing their manly intention to stay on for the long ride shall run from the bear today crying like babies. Er, sorry about the mixed metaphore.

-EJ

NY about to open. London was closed for holiday. The next few minutes will be of great interest.

on my pm quotes...must have...they are all green today...huh?

That's what makes life exciting. We still have about an hour to check out any weather changes, but so far everything is still go.

The PM markets are opening now. We'll check for any fronts moving in.

how many engines can your jumbo jets lose and still keep on flying on? I hear those old 747s can lose 2 out of 4 and still limp on...

sorta reminds me of that old joke...

"this is your captain speaking. i'm sorry to announce that we have lost 1 out of 4 of our engines. but do not worry, we can still make it though we will be 1 hour late"

15 minutes later - "this is your captain again. we lost another engine. but do not worry. we can make it on 2 engines but we will be 2 hours late"

some time later - ( slightly more worried ) "ahem. this is your captain. we had to shut down a third engine. we shall now be 4 hours late."

( overheard right after the announcement ) "Damn! if they lose another engine, we'll be up here all night!"

Equites continue to look good even improving. Bonds down. Dollar is up suddenly and all other currencies dow. PM's still up, but weakening.

I bought a Silver Kooklaburra from the mint just before the Buffett announcement. I think I paid around US$12-13 for it ( spot was maybe $5.50 then ) . It is a beautiful coin, and I think they charge a good amount over spot because it is thought of as sort of a collector's coin sold to tourists etc. You might get a slightly better deal if you buy it in bulk. Also you may wish to consider 10 oz. ingots, kilo bars, or even larger coins ( 2 oz. etc ) . Personally, I like the coins as they are pure currency whereas ingots would be more of a form of storage/barter.

Perth Mint http://www.perthmint.com.au/index.shtml

International offices http://www.perthmint.com.au/offices/index.shtml
Hong Kong
GoldCorp Australia ( Hong Kong ) Ltd
Room 405, St George's Building
2 Ice House Street, Central Hong Kong
Tel: ( 852 ) 2525 1130
Fax: ( 852 ) 2810 6809

AGR Hong Kong
Unit 1009, Peninsular Square
18 Sung On Street
Hung Hom
Howloon, Hong Kong
Tel: ( 852 ) 2356 7889
Fax: ( 852 ) 2303 1339

We are probably going to take up the converted Suprfortress we normally use for our hurricane sounding flights.

The Sunday Times yesterday reported that the Sultan of Brunei, until recently described as the world's richest man, has pulled billions of pounds out of western and Japanese investment banks, as speculation grows about the economic health of his tiny oil-rich state.

The Brunei Investment Agency ( BIA ) is thought to have run down its funds with several investment banks including Deutsche Morgen Grenfell, JP Morgan, Citibank, and Japan's Nomura.

The news of the withdrawals comes at a time when the sultan's accountants are working feverishly to determine the size of Brunei's assets after taking losses running into billions.

The Sultan has shutdown younger brother Jefri's Amadeo Development Corporation ( ADC ) which has unpaid bills of 500m and projects worth 1.5 billion under way.

Early reports suggested ADC had 10 billion of debts but Jefri's spokesman said this number was "rubbish" and claimed that the missing billions were the product of general extravagance by the ruling family as well as investment losses taken in the Far East financial crisis.

Reminiscent of the BCCI and Barings scandals, there is a big investigation going on to find out what happened to the Brunei Billions. Arthur Anderson & Co. is doing a broader investigation of Brunei's assets and is thought to have made contact with a number of the New York and London fund managers that have managed its money in an attempt to reconstruct the precise flow of funds over the past few years.

Metals looking very weak. Houstin, please advise.

IMHO. Nothing has changed except that shockingly bad news has abated for the past few days. The pro's know we are downtrending, but may play any releif rallies to sell into, etc.

Downward channel forming in silver.

Weekly Closing Highs:

3rd week in February 6.90
4th week in March 6.55
3rd week in June 5.70

Weekly Closing Lows:

2nd week in March 6.10
2nd week in May 5.10
guess ( soon ) 4.45

The first wave down was 0.80, the second wave down was 1.45 and so far we have 1.09 on the third wave down ( possibly going down 1.25?? ) .

The top of the channel is pretty well defined. The bottom is a little squishy. An interesting factoid of questionable value: If you make a bottom line which is parallel to the top down line, place it on the 5.10 bottom - it points back to the second wave high of the uptrend. Don't know what this 'means' but it sure is interesting in a technical sense ( maybe? ) .

Just diddling. Don't take this seriously. Last time I posted a TA I got it quite wrong. That was -1.10 ago!

Nice to see you posting here again. Martin Armstrong -- agrees with yoour forecast of $200-$250 gold. And his record -- while far from perfect -- os extremely good.

Shepler still very bearish. Sees good chance of a crash within next few weeks.


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/31/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/28/98 close: 10.81

Return on current trade: 5.57%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 17.01%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -6.69%


Market Commentary:

On July 21st we told subscribers that we strongly believed that the
final highs for the 16 year long bull-market had just been seen. Last
week we received several confirmations for this bearish position.
Several key support levels for the market gave way in a convincing
fashion including the 200 day moving average, and the neckline of a
massive head and shoulders formation which projects a target of 7350 on
the Dow. Adding credence to this breakdown was the high trading volumes
seen on Thursday and Friday, and the fact that these supports were
broken on a weekly closing basis. Monday takes on a great deal of
significance as we could very likely see a monthly close below these
support levels if the bulls fail to rally the market on Monday. Unless
Monday sees a tremendous rally ( the chances of which are slim to none,
and slim just left town ) , August of '98 is set to be one of the most
painful months for bulls in recent market history. And we believe they
ain't seen nothin' yet.
We told subscribers Friday that we felt the crash wave we expected
in this timeframe was just getting underway. We think that last
Thursday's action was a preview of what is to come in the days and weeks
ahead. Specifically, we feel that the risk of an outright market crash
between now and Spetember 20th is extremely high. And even if a crash
does not occur, we still have a minimum downside target of 7350 Dow, a
22% decline from the July highs. Market internals continue to suggest
the worst is yet to come, as new lows remain at stratospheric levels,
while new highs are virtually non-existant. Friday's trade saw 828 new
lows and only 15 new highs. Decliners also continued to swamp advancers
by a 2173 to 921 margin. The writing is on the wall for all to see, but
some bulls still can't bear ( no pun intended ) to read it. To put it
simply, when the majority of stocks are trading at or near 52-week lows,
and nearly every trading day sees lower lows in the A-D line, it is a
bear market.
Despite the continually mounting evidence that the bull is dead,
speculators can't seem to stop trying to pick bottoms. Friday's trading
again saw an OEX put/call ratio under 1.0, as it came in at a .93
reading. Yes, you read that right, speculators are buying more calls
than puts even as world financial markets meltdown all around them. As
we have stated before this type of complacency is the kiss of death for
the market. I guess you can't teach old bulls new tricks. They just
can't seem to fight that deadly urge to buy them dips. Rydex fund
switchers, on the other hand, have convincingly joined the bear camp, as
the Rydex ratio soars to 139%. We think that as the investing public
comes to grips with the reality of this bear market, that the Rydex
ratio will move even higher, and that what was an oversold signal in the
previous bull market will become a neutral value in the current bear
trend.
So, we continue to hold our current Ursa position, as we look for
more massive waves of selling to hit the market in the days and weeks
ahead. Sometime in the not too distant future, it will be time to catch
a decent bear market rally, but we think there is much more downside
damage to be done before any worthwhile tradeable rallies will occur.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/rockwell/980828.excom_what_is_terro.html

the story is interesting enough to warrant reposting

can anyone verify the validity of this story to some geographically distant ( both to America and the factory in question ) ppl in Aussieland?

btw, has anyone watched the movie "wag the dog"? probably ahead of its time, that one.

i'll drink to that. tequila, anyone?

Some guy named Arnold is duking it out with some guy named Buffet

Today we are going to be taking only a short flight. We are prepared to fly til around noon today which will take most passengers halfway to their destinations. Those wishing to conitnue on will have to find connecting flights on some other carrier.

Many metals stocks were highly oversold during the general panic last Thursday and Friday. I expect soething of a rebound rally if the spot prices will remain fairly stable through the day.

The general market, of course, continues to be a bear. A somewhat oversold bear, but a bear nonentheless.

Like a parachute!

The designations of "Defcon" was still in practice last night with our nation and all U.S. Military forces on a level of "Defcon 4+."
Based upon this setting we are at a heighten level of alert on all military installations world wide in the event of further attacks against American interest.
Troops and Guard in my area are conducting drills to prevent attacks on Oak Ridge, Tennessee. This includes livefire drills.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Copper hitting new lows.

September 22nd...the celebration.

Yes sir. Three more weeks.

Outflows of 2.2 billion for last week.
http://www.amgdata.com/

Has anyone seen any hard evidence that
Russia is planning on minting a gold ruble?

here all night ? Gollum airlines, you definitely need more ticket
counters; I could not get in here Thursday or Friday; what sort of
airline are you running, anyway ?

I give up. What's the significance of 9/22?

Le Crash?

Ben Liden now a hero in the moslem world.


- _______ ____ ______
/ |/ / /___/ / /_ // M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S
/ /|_/ / /_/_ / /\\ Making Sense of the Middle East
/_/ /_/ /___/ /_/ \\
www.MiddleEast.Org BIN LADEN THE HERO
_______________________________________________________________
News, Information, & Analysis That Governments, Interest Groups,
and the Corporate Media Don't Want You To Know.
_______________________________________________________________
TO RECEIVE MER regularly Email with subject: SEND MER
_______________________________________________________________


THE AMERICANS HAVE CREATED AN ARAB "CHE"

AND HE WILL PROBABLY MEET THE SAME FATE

MER - WASHINGTON - 30 August:
One can't count on the establishment American press when it comes to
the Middle East, that's for sure. Even when the facts are right,
the emphasis and perspective are nearly always off, usually way off.
And the reasons why are no secret, however rarely discussed with
candidness and veracity.
This said, occassionally an interesting and insightful article
comes along as in this case, dateline Khartoum and published in the
New York Times last week. True, the choice of interviewee is
questionable, the publication's motives suspect, and the general
presentation slanted in various subtle ways. But even so, the
situation created by America's "New War" is so flammable that even
the American elite are being warned to pay some attention to the
result of their actions.


----------------------

"Now he is a hero in Saudi Arabia, in Islamabad,
in Cairo, in all capitals of the Muslim world."

"You don't rub the entire Muslim world's nose
in the dirt and make it kneel."

"Bin Laden is not an aberration. He is part of a
long thread that goes back to the 18th-century
Western occupation of the Muslim world."


IN SUDAN A MODERATE THINKS U.S. SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT

By JANE PERLEZ

New York Times - 25 August:

KHARTOUM, Sudan -- A normally serene scholar of Islam named
Abdulrahman Abuzayd, who believes passionately in the wisdom of his
religion and its values, is furious at the United States.

He is no friend of the National Islamic Front's government in Sudan.
Indeed, two years ago, it burned his office at the university he led
and forced him to step down.

He also is unhappy that the government invited Osama bin Laden,
considered a top financier of terrorism by the United States, to take
refuge in his homeland.

But sending cruise missiles, he says, is no way to deal with
extremists -- and no way to deal with a government that may or may not
have allowed a factory to make a compound of a nerve gas.

"As a Sudanese I'm mad," said Abuzayd, as he sat on his veranda, which
looks over the urban landscape of low-slung, khaki-colored homes, a
sun-bleached dusty road and an occasional wandering goat. "OK, we have
problems with this regime. But we solve them ourselves. Now the
Americans have come and given it a big shot in the arm."

He has the same concern about bin Laden, whose image -- with a long
black beard and varying styles of headgear -- is now flashed around
the world. "The Americans have suddenly created a Muslim hero out of
him, whereas last week he was considered a fanatic nut," Abuzayd said.
"Now he is a hero in Saudi Arabia, in Islamabad, in Cairo, in all
capitals of the Muslim world."

The United States has made serious missteps, he said, first by failing
to convince the Muslim world that bin Laden was responsible for the
bombings of American embassies in East Africa and then by attacking
Afghanistan and the Sudan.

"By its strikes in Afghanistan and here, America did not eliminate
terrorism," Abuzayd said. "This is not terrorism -- this is a
resurging Muslim world. You don't deal with it with cruise missiles,
you discuss it. You don't rub the entire Muslim world's nose in the
dirt and make it kneel."

Abuzayd is upset because he has long articulated an Islam that is
tolerant and free of corruption. At Omdurman Ahlia University, a
private institution largely financed by the Kuwaiti government, he
introduced a wide range of courses for male and female students and
tried to keep the radical influence of the governing Islamic Front at
bay.

After being forced out, he was hired by the U.N. high commissioner for
refugees for an unusual task: to travel as a Muslim scholar among the
Taliban in Afghanistan to talk about questions of justice and
education.

He believes that most of his countrymen believe in his kind of Islam,
too. But now he and others here complain that the unilateral American
action will be likely to reinforce anti-Western sentiment in Sudan,
which has become increasingly isolated in the last five years.

The American Embassy closed here nearly two years ago, after the
United States contended that the Sudanese government had not done
enough to close down camps for training terrorists. Many European
embassies have scaled back and cut their aid.

Before, it was not uncommon to see a European face on the ramshackle
streets of the capital. Now it is rare.

Most Western officials now concede that the training camps have been
closed down. Abuzayd also said he believes that the camps have been
shuttered -- in part, he said, because the government had
established a network of domestic security services and did not feel
the need for the extra security that the training camps provided.

The government also acquiesced to demands from the United States and
some moderate Arab countries that bin Laden be expelled from here in
1996.

Some Western diplomats have said that even though the government here
persists in fighting a pernicious civil war in the south and precludes
any real pluralist politics, it was a mistake not to
reward it for the attempts at change.

For many in Sudan and the rest of the Muslim world, this lack of
response, and now the attack on the pharmaceutical plant, contrasts
sharply with the American attitude toward Israel, Abuzayd said.

"It can't help but be compared to what is going on in Israel," he
said. "They kick out Arab settlers, uproot their homes and nothing
happens. I believe that almost all young Muslims are radicalized by
the Israeli behavior."

Referring to Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, he
said, "Netanyahu is the ugliest face of arrogance caused by
unflinching levels of American support."

The historical reasons for the violence of bin Laden and other Muslim
radicals was also important for the United States to consider, Abuzayd
said.

"Bin Laden is not an aberration," he said. "He is part of a long
thread that goes back to the 18th-century Western occupation of the
Muslim world." In many of the contemporary reinterpretations of Islam
in Saudi Arabia, in Asia and in Africa, he said, anti-foreign
attitudes and severe puritanism are uppermost.

"Bin Laden is a young businessman who was terribly radicalized by his
experiences in Afghanistan," when he helped fight against the
Russian-backed government there, "and by the Gulf war," Abuzayd
said.

But even with the strong anti-foreign sentiment among Muslim radicals,
Abuzayd said, violent leaders only find ready support when they are
attacked by the West. This was why it is so frustrating to watch the
United States play into bin Laden's hands, he said.

In the end, Abuzayd said, he understood that the American strikes in
Afghanistan and the Sudan were motivated by Clinton's need to "do
something."

But, he added, "If you have a long arm, as Mrs. Albright says, you go
in and get bin Laden. The Israelis did it in Entebbe."

The ppt is having some trouble pushing gold lower at the open today and it could be that we have finally put the bottom in. The fear of a deflationary depression may create a set of circumstances where by the world begins to protect commodities...... I think that Clinton is in for a rude awakening when he arrives in Russia later today... The people on the street are fed up with America and there so called economic reforms.. This sentiment is spreading quickly around the world and the time may be drawing nearer when the world bands together and shows the US that they are not as strong as they think.. A nation in debt up to their ying yang!

Pretty please, with sugar and cream on top? Talk about adrenaline and I'm off to work, darn it.

If Duma's Commies try to push their luck too far
and refuse to confirm Chernomyrdin as a PM, Uncle
Boris may get real upset with them. Then I can not
rule out a few T-80 tanks, demonstrating in his
support on streets of Moscow, but then it may get ugly..
I did hope tensions would ease with Chernomyrdin's
appointment...

Maybe so....gold is close to important support levels in several currencies - USD ( 278 ) , DMark ( 500 ) , French Franc ( 1675 ) , Swiss Franc ( 410 ) , but not in others Yen ( 36000-37000 ) .

The recent trend, however, seems to be down. I would be very careful on betting this is a bottom until a clear breakout to the upside is indicated.

You'll find all those Sigma band charts under "Market Cycles"
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm
3rd box down right-hand side.

Underneath this I have placed my Swing Chart,
Which I will update whenever.

Also
http://www.chartingyourfutures.com/dailyworksheets.htm
Has many revealing charts

He is still looking for significant drop. HighTower says silver

should drop 30 cents this week that there are tons of Buffett

wantabes still in silver. Guess deflation wins. PEI has yearly

chart of silver during Great Depression on their website www.pei-intl.com. It crashed along with stocks during Depression. There was no flight to metals. They crashed same as stocks into 1932 low. Silver dropped from 1920 $1.34

to 1932 25 cents. Looks like history is repeating.

quote.com, Fidelity, and Yahoo will give me the symbol on a company name lookup but not a quote when I click on the symbol. What's with that?
-EJ

Floor broker told me that Goldman took delivery last time of
4,000 contracts of silver trying to make it look like silver was
getting tight. They delivered back today all 4,000 contracts of silver
into COMEX - that 20 million ounces!

dropping 16 in the first ten minutes
Geez, Gollum. The thing is bearly ( get it, BEARLY ) getting off the ground.
-EJ

My guess is that Rubin and GS have been playing the commodity market on all the ups and downs. Those privy to the inside international political news are gaining millions on each move.

HighRise

In light of the economic, financial and monetary morass enveloping the entire globe, few can argue that the world is not entering a conceivably LONG PERIOD OF DEPRESSION sadly reminiscent of 1929 and aftermath.

On August 27 the DOW plummeted 537 points on all-time record volume of more than 900 million shares. Furthermore, the same day AP News-Service announced: " Commodity prices collapsed to 21-year lows as panicked selling shook world stock markets and further depressed foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar, making American goods too expensive." Interestingly, the last time commodities were this low ( 1976/77 ) was on the very 'Eve' of GOLD's record breaking bull market - when it subsequently soared more than 550% to $850/oz in January 1980.

There are three other problems which will intensify and accelerate the current downtrend in stocks, commodities, currencies and economies everywhere: Y2K Bug, the growing wave of international terrorism and the increasing tension in the Middle-East.

DRACONIAN ACTION IS NECESSARY

Someone must demonstrate decisive leadership and take the necessary
draconian measures to avert another GREAT DEPRESSION lasting
numerous excruciating years before recovery  la 1929,
or even worse, requiring another World War to cure the malady.

The entire report and startling remedy for the plight of the financial world may be seen at the following website. As usual it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky083198.html

dow topped out at 42 up and is now currently at 85 points down!

I repeat--GOLD HAS BOTTOMED! DOW HAS TOPPED! These are the new paradigms for making $!!

I am completely apauld at the Princton Economic Institute's assessment of precious metals and the colilation to the 1929 crash and depression...to think that they have spent their entire lives studying this and still can't get it right...what a shame...in the first place there are major differences between now and 1929 which were not even mentioned in their analysis of the situation. Back in 1929 we were a creditor nation and did not have a $6 Trillion deficit to finance...second, there was an ample supply of silver in the world to let the market forces work so that as the demand deminished so did the price...today we have massive amounts of market manipulation driving the prices down as the central banks create paper gold out of thin air and sell it on the open market depressing and manipulating a normal demand driven market...granted gold may hit $200 oz. but it won't be because of the reasons they listed....Third, is that gold is in a bull market in all currencies in the world that have devalued against the dollar....forth, is that we will be forced to inflate the US$ in times of lowering economic activity because the gov't has no option but to roll the financing to pay the debt...also, as the currencies of the rest of the world devalue against the dollar, they will be unable to buy the same amount of US bonds and therefore forcing the US gov't to print money to keep the financing going. None of these factors existed in the 1929 economic situation...besides, all of that was caused by the Fed and Bank of London squeezing the leveraged markets.

And for the icing on the cake, their derivatives were never in the ball park that ours are now...when this game unwinds, the financial systems as we know it today will be 100% different after the collapse.

The announcer on CNBC, Falicia Tayler, just said:
"Gold & silver are both up.
A flight to quality - err I mean safe haven".

The Fed plans to put into circulation 50 Billion notes because of so called Y2K problem. I say it is because they know a collapse is at hand and failing companies and individuals will cause a huge demand for credit and loans as they attempt to remain solvent. Rampant inflation will be result. Comrade Clinton knows that I. V. Leinn said that you cannot have true socialism without first removing the middle class. Your only hope is to get out of all paper and get metals. Dont wait you may not have much time left to prepare for what is coming.

BUY BUY BUY Equities..... BUY BUY BUY .... HeHeHeHeHe

As Gollum has reminded all of us from time to time, since all see the price of gold through our distorting dollar lens, as the dollar price of gold goes up and down, so goes the buying power of the dollar.
-EJ

Canadian Mining & Exploration
Stock Performance Apr. 6 - Aug. 14 ( inc )

Stock Apr. 6 Aug28 Percentage
PRU 11.70 10.00 -15
MNG 5.90 4.45 -25
PDG 20.80 13.75 -34
ABX 32.75 20.90 -36
ORV 1.85 1.00 -46
GEO 2.50 1.14 -54
SUF 13.60 6.05 -56
RNG 5.45 2.00 -63
GRE 10.30 1.94 -81

Hell, she should be fired for that .........

There has been a lot of disinformation regarding Russia. The Russian default is extremely important and the importance that I'm talking about has nothing to do with its war arsenal. No, the important thing is the fact that many US and European banks have loaned 10's of Billions of dollars to Russia and are unlikely to see it again. This puts banks, and thus the whole global monetary system, in very precarious positions. Harry Schultz has been urging his readers to get a good chunk of their money out of the banks. Personally I am quite concerned about the possibility of my bank going bust. So you may think you are being conservative, but really you are only safe as long as your bank stays solvent and/or the currency doesn't collapse.

As to the US$, Dr. Kurt Richebacher says he expects dollar weakness later this year. Bob Prechter is starting to turn bearish on the dollar. I suppose the dollar has some strength left in it for a month or two and it is hard to tell how quickly it might sell off. There is talk that if the global financial crisis worsens, then the launch of the Euro currency might be delayed.

Note in yesterday's Sunday Times the 2nd paragraph of frontpage lead story concerning Russia says-

"There are also fears among European leaders that even at this late stage the storm blowing through world financial markets could hit the start of the single currency, planned for January 1."

Hussa-Vidirallalla! What a fun day this Monday morning!

Here's one about the old native American who wanted a loan for $500. The banker pulled out the loan application, "What are you going to do with the money?"
"Take jewelry to city and sell it," was the response.
"What have you got for collateral?"
"Don't know collateral."
"Well that's something of value that would cover the cost of the loan. Have you got any vehicles?"
"Yes, 1949 Chevy pickup."
The banker shook his head, "How about livestock?"
"Yes, I have a horse."
"How old is it?"
"Don't know, has no teeth."
Finally the banker decided to make the $500 loan. Several weeks later the old man was back in the bank. He pulled out a roll of bills, "Here to pay." he said. He then handed the banker the money to pay his loan off.
"What are you going to do with the rest of that money?"
"Put in teepee."
"Why don't you deposit it in my bank," he asked.
"Don't know deposit."
"You put the money in our bank and we take care of it for you.
When you want to use it you can withdraw it."
The old Indian leaned across the desk, "What you got for collateral?"

Got $0 in any bank, all in FDIC guaranteed Fidelity Money Market account. I write checks against it, have a credit card, etc. Near as I can tell, they're in a far better position to weather a crisis than any bank I know of.
-EJ

I agree with you that the kookabura is a lovely coin. It is very shiny and looks expensive. So you think that $12.90 is a fair price? I think I'll get me a couple or so. Thanks for the addresses, I'll check them out.

There is a coin collectors expo here in Hong Kong next week end. I will go along and see whats up there. It will be interesting to ask the dealers if they have noticed any increased demand now that the hang Seng index is crashing down.

In light of current market conditions I don't think
the euro will survive unless they are willing to
increase substantially the percentage of gold backing
it. - otherwise its just another paper currency with
nothing in back of it but politicians promises - as
far as talking heads are concerned I have not heard
one who likes gold maybe that is enough in it self to
think seriously about buying - remember in 1929 when
members of the new york stock exchange were telling
the public to take advantage of all the good buys they
were secretly selling short - perhaps the same is true
today about gold - how much more negative can published
opinion regarding gold get? - cjk -

This looks like the final wave down for this phase of the bear. Why? Because for the first time in aeons the broad market and cyclicals in particular are going down less than the popular averages. What we have here is the big cap darlings starting to catch up with the rest of the market on the downside. Once the market temporarily troughs around 7000-7500, gold, oils, deep cyclicals, and small caps should bounce much more strongly than the Dow and S & P 500

This looks like the final wave down for this phase of the bear. Why? Because for the first time in aeons the broad market and cyclicals in particular are going down less than the popular averages. What we have here is the big cap darlings starting to catch up with the rest of the market on the downside. Once the market temporarily troughs around 7000-7500, gold, oils, deep cyclicals, and small caps should bounce much more strongly than the Dow and S & P 500

that they can expect 20% annual returns from the stock market now see their entire year's gains wiped out and the market still dropping. Logic informs them that if gains were what they expected then at this point they can at least break even for the year if they get out now and move to cash. So that's what they're doing.

The equities industry hoisted by their own petard.
-EJ

Down 3.2% and slipping.

N. Korea fires missile over Japan
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/nws16.htm

You don't suppose... Germany is next in line for a currency attack?
-EJ

We have all read many reports about the looming Y2K Bug and
corresponding dangers. However, nearly none addresses the
possible dire impact the MILLENNIUM MENACE may have on
the practice of medicine - and in particular YOUR HEALTH and
that of your loved ones. Well, Dr. Hein - a practicing physician -
has generously give us a FREE consultation on the subject.

The eminent Dr. Hein asks some very penetrating questions,
like: " Do pacemakers, for example, have a Y2K connection?"
He further comments, "The answer appears to be "maybe."

His worthy consultation may be read at the following website.
As usual you need delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden"
before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/hein083198.html

Not sure but the bear has struck there.

As I was viewing ECO on the YAHOO! site, and went to check the one day chart, someone came in and bought 100,000 shares, dropping ECO from a 1/8 point gain to a 1/16 point gain. That's a large trade for an individual investor! Any thoughts?

Kitco's up -- Must be the short term financial crisis is over. US dollar down 2% in one day ( last Friday ) . The pre-1987 crash drop in the US dollar was about 5% in 3 days. I'll bet the US dollar goes up today.

Old Gold: I would not be putting anything into gold equities until CRY0 bottoms. JOC is dropping too. I don't expect gold bullion to go down much lower, but no harm done in waiting until the bottom in commodities forms.
Yes -- I know you will say that gold always leads commodoties prices. You are correct from 1980 to nearly 1990. But after that gold has been generally so weak that it tends to lag behind commodity prices. Especially the loast two years. Makes sense too -- we are in a deflationary mode, rather than the inflationary mode right now. If we have an eventual return to inflation, then gold will lead again.
I think you are right about the general equities markets bottoming. The wild card is whether WJC can repair the damage to his image -- I am becoming more and more convinced that he is history. Really tells you something when the Dems start getting interested in impeachment or resignation. Now, it seems the Republicans are not as eager to impeach, or demand resignation. I wonder why?

And don't forget who won the SuperBowl.

and we don't take paper, we want the gold put back where it belongs...

The ember of Y2k UNCERTAINTY is glowing brightly in America's heartland.

Distributors of life's staples are complaining they cannot get product
fast enough that there is zero inventory that shelves are bare
that product supplies are out the door immediately to fill rapidly building back-orders.

Public Concern about the MILLENNIUM BUG is amassing in the US Midwest.
Prudent people are stocking up on Long-Term STORABLE FOOD.

G-O-L-D__E-A-G-L-E staff made surveys which reveal that many, many, many
thousands are preparing NOW for the looming Y2K risk.

Needless to say, as the MILLENIUM BUG picks up moment via
the media and/or via word of mouth, public attention will begin to
focus on GOLD. Can you imagine what growing
demand from grass-root levels will have on the
price of the yellow metal, gold coins and
precious metals stocks?!
Can you imagine the devastation in Wall Street?!

The motto for 1999 may well be "PREPARE AND SURVIVE"

Ironically, the Amish will be the best prepared to face the
MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Full report at following URL. Before posting to the Internet delete
the extra letters "en" in word "golden"

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky080398.html

Appreciate your suggestions

It would be a good idea to check past news stories on ECO, there seems to be more activity around that stock recently. Use to have a lot of silver?

HighRise

The pictures of the Russians standing in front of their banks is indeed chilling. A few days ago the NewsHour ran a segment about the government's efforts to recoup their Medicaid expenses from surviving family members. This pour guy from Oregon got a $65,000 bill from the state after his mother passed away for her nursing home bill. They then showed this government agent going through SAFETY DEPOSIT BOXES at the bank! My bank President assured me that HE would PERSONALLY let me into my box if there was a run on the banks...... Well, when they sent my box rules a couple days later I found that according to rule #2 they specifically won't let you into your box if they are having a run on the bank. SO, where is your gold?

So, where is the POG going today? We have an old cowboy saying here for getting onto a bronc.....

"Take a deep seat and a far away look!"

Gold investing really seems a lot like bronc riding these days.

Go gold!

So when are we gonna see a rally ?
---
Whoah God only knows, God makes his plan
The information's unavailable to the mortal man
We're workin' our jobs, collect our pay
Believe we're gliding down the highway, when in fact we're slip sliding away
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away

From 1/1/99 to 12/31/01, retail prices posted by merchants of ECU EURO member countries must be posted in both the local currency and the EURO equivalent, to familirize consumers to the EURO conversion rates.

However, the merchants will NOT be obligated to accept payments in EUROs.
Those merchants who accept EUROs for payment of goods sold, must indicate so, on the price tag.

From 1/1/99 the VISA card holder will also be able to charge purchase in EUROs ( if he so wishes ) . Currently there are 4,500 European Member Banks to VISA, which are responsible for 118 million VISA cards.

Methinks a nose dive will happen this afternoon.

Buyers are capitulating.
Sellers are wondering.

You posed a question in your last post that I may have an answer for.
You wondered why the Republicans were being gentle on Clinton but the Dems are riding him hard...

A political pundit noticed this too and offered this explanation:
The Dems don't want to appear partisan - protecting their own - so they are distancing themselves from him.
The Repubs don't want to appear partisan - by attacking the president - so they are lying low.

A strange turn of events indeed.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

Hows your arse?? We have lanacaine AND Preparation H

It's almost noon and we will be landing shortly at our destination at 7900 feet. We wish to thank all you who have taken our Monday morning flight.

For those who wish to make connecting flights there will be shuttle service to the main terminal.

Clinton on TV
And PREM rising.

PPT at work again. I wonder why?

Rally time through manipulation???

Last look 7897

seem to resemble those from Germany in the 1920's. Their government turned to hyperinflation to try to liquidate their debt, and the country turned to fascism in 1933.

If the Russians manage to ignite a hyperinflation, look for a fascist gov't to successfully take over. James Davidson has pointed out that every government that has presided over a hyperinflation has been overthrown.

- Steve

How far are they going to push it today?

PREM up 7 points while B.C. talks confidence.

Whose buying???

PDG-large cap profitable & has the Christinas property in Venezuela that will ensure low cost production for many years.

Sjd-spec V. 1.03 this morn & have that much in cash per share. Have a property in Ghana & latest drilling results look good.

K.- med cap has many properties, well diversified geographically. A real bargain this morn-down around 10 % to a new low. Some marginal properties & if we had 250 POG for an extended period , they would be in real trouble.

I recently got a "safe deposit" box at one of the local banks. I went in one day and loaded it with a couple of hundred silver half-dollars and when I handed it back to the banker, he made a comment about my "coin collection" and getting out of stocks. Jeez, there's no privacy anymore. As much as it spooked me, I'm glad to know now how vulnerable even safe deposit boxes are.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.N&d=5d

another big down day? hmmm..... maybe. it's not over yet.

A. G. Edwards spokesman on CNBC advocating using "Out of the Money" Gold Options like Dec 285 or 290. This advise given in response to the "Talking Heads" question: "Is gold still a viable investment vehicle?"
Any comments?

The news regarding ECO has been good. They have been upgraded by one brokerage and received high marks for their customer relations. ECO is also in decent financial shape. My question, however, is who would buy 100,000 shares at a time when mining stocks are dropping? Large investor? Mutual fund? And by implication, are the mining shares beginning to bottom? Any thoughts, HighRise? Thanks.

When the only future we look forward to
is our world's economies and civiliization in general
going to hell with the arrival of the four horsemen
so that our personal way of life improves
at least in comparison to the rest of the world.
Go Gold and Silver!

Don't remember seeing a show like this, Dollar was up to 74.60 and has now plunged to 73.52. Incredible. Interest rates were raised 1% and economy stalled, unemoployment at @ 11% .
The BIG "R" word is around the corner.
Remember cANADa, SELL YER GOLD, Idiots. HaHaHaHaHa

sharefin, all: Just how much upward pressure can the PPT put on the markets? And where do they get their money? From the FED?

Just a thought -- beware the day the PPT fails to act, because that will be the day that all the 'insiders' - whoever they are - will be safely ensconced in cash or short postions.

Think we will have a period of time when the pros -- whoever they are -- will try to sucker the public into the markets with a minirally, and then bail out with a small profit? Guess I am just the suspicious sort. Has happened before though.

I just received some emails saying:
~~~~~~~~~~~
Clinton to the rescue
See Clinton on Tv
just flashed
Dow has erased years to date gains
Clinton not helping turn it yet
"If our values can spread around the world"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not sure which channel?
Not sure what he said?

But as usual when he goes on to TV to calm the masses.
The PPT moves the PREM higher.

Just a small push today - 7 points.
Holding the equilibrium.

Dow 5400 where are you? HA..HA..HA! Disney getting smashed! Dow now going NEGATIVE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR!! Ha..hah! Cheesehead and Puetz gave you ample warning and now you's gotta' pay the piper! Have a good day, sucka's!

Dow 5400 where are you? HA..HA..HA! Disney getting smashed! Dow now going NEGATIVE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR!! Ha..hah! Cheesehead and Puetz gave you ample warning and now you's gotta' pay the piper! Have a good day, sucka's! Hah..hah..hah!

Dow, Nasdaq wipe out gains for year as stocks fall

NEW YORK, Aug 31 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks fell further near midday Monday, with key indices wiping out all their gains for the year.

At 1146 EDT/1346 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 160 points to 7891, moving below the 7908 level where it began 1998.

Earlier in the morning, the Dow dropped below 8,000 for the first time since early February, breaking a level that analysts said carries important weight in the pysche of investors.

``Investors have seemed to remain complacent above 8,000, but we're watching to see if a move below causes changes like more mutual fund redemptions,'' Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist at UBS Securities, said Friday as the Dow flirted with 8,000.

Technology stocks that had been flying high this year also dragged down the Nasdaq Composite Index below where it began the year.

At 1158 EDT/1558 GMT, the Nasdaq was off 70 points at 1570, where it had began the year.

The S&P 500 Index, though, was still ahead for the year. At midday, the S&P was off 23 points at 1004. The index began 1998 at 970.

Dow 5400 where are you? HA..HA..HA! Disney getting smashed! Dow now going NEGATIVE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR!! Ha..hah! Cheesehead and Puetz gave you ample warning and now you's gotta' pay the piper! Have a good day, sucka's! BEAR-X SOARING UNLIKE GOLLUM AIRLINES!! Hah..hah..hah!

It is reportedly a strong company so,
How much lower can it go? The problem is, a drop in price of only 1/2 a point represents a distorted percentage drop of 25% to 50%; but a jump up of 2 points represents a 100% gain.

Now if it goes back to $10- 14 / share well that's going to be nice....yes?

ECO and the Canadian $ vs US $?
Canadian interest rates went up right?
In an effort to attract cash, rates are up around the world, can the US afford to lower rates?
When will the US bonds become unattractive?
I believe the US is monetizing the debt?

I am going to watch the next few days market action. I have been buying in on each bottom.
However this is my first deflation/possible depression experience, and I think this is the first time the US has been on this side of events during deflation.

The US markets have now erased all gains for the year. And remember they started the year beat up from the 97 fall. The professional and casual investor are receiving margin calls now.

No guts no glory,
What else is there to buy, and at such a discount?

HighRise

Here's a snap of Oct97.
When BC came on TV the prem jumped from -27 to +33
A 60 point jump.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Prem10.gif
---
Then just last week when BC was on TV calming his citizens.
Prem went from -5 to +9.
A 14 point jump.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Fedbuy.jpg
---
And just before with BC on TV - a 7 point rise.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Prem31998.jpg
~~~~~~~~~~~~
It was rumoured that In Oct97 that the feds intervened to the tune of approx $2 billion.

Obviously these later attempts are chicken feed.

If they wanted to I would expect that they could match or better HK's intervention @ $20 billion.

Why not $100 billion.

If they see the need for their countries sake,
The can do as they wish.

Obviously it would have to get very nasty before such intervention was necessary.
But soon it well may.

And I would guess that Many Americans would be greatfull,
As they get their butts saved by the ones they love. ( :- ) ) )

All is fair play when the money's on the table.

Dow 5400 where are you? HA..HA..HA! Disney getting smashed! Dow now going NEGATIVE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR!! Ha..hah! Cheesehead and Puetz gave you ample warning and now you's gotta' pay the piper! Have a good day, sucka's! BEAR-X SOARING UNLIKE GOLLUM AIRLINES!! Hah..hah..hah! Whatever happened to the Great Gollum Silver Rally? Ha..hah..hah!! Now we see the difference between silver and gold, yes? Ha..hah!

Interview with NICK GOODWIN - 28 August, 1998


AH: Hopefully, Nick Goodwin, our gold guru is going to be able to improve your weekend a little. Nick we had a chat before the programme and you've got some rather surprising news. Now the last time you were on the
show, you were quite Bullish about gold. Your feeling right now, since then, the gold price in dollars has fallen quite dramatically. In the past week, the All Gold Index is off 15%, it's not too bad for the month, 16% when you compare that Financials are down by 33%, but it's still quite a decline. What now?

NICK GOODWIN: Alec, I think I've got some good news here for listeners and that is on my system, which I've been running for twenty years, today I had a signal which is a called a safe-plus, which listeners might not
understand, but that means that it's a very rare signal. I've had I think five of these signals in twenty years, and looking back historically, the success rate of these signals have been 100%, which means the potential for the market to go up from these levels is 100%, which means there is no downside.

AH: Now let's remember we're only talking about the gold market.

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, not the JSE. Only the gold market. The gold price doesn't look too good I know that, but we actually buy gold shares, not gold price. I think I've said on here before that I don't actually predict the price. Something interesting about the price is that we are seeing a down-spike now and the major turnarounds in the past have been followed by a down-spike like this.

AH: What do you mean by a down-spike?

NICK GOODWIN: Well for instance, the prices dropped almost $15 in a week, and if you look at it on a graph, especially a straight line down, it doesn't sort of decay slowly, but just collapses. And we had similar situations in 1982, June 1982, when the price collapsed from about 350 to about 310 and turned around and rocketed up to 500 soon thereafter. In 1985 as well, the price dropped from 300 to about 280 within days, and turned around, and we've got a similar situation now. I'm expecting the price to turn around quite soon out of this spike, because the short sellers will start closing and that has an appeal that you'll be selling gold in the hope of buying it back later. Russia recently announced that they are going to start using the gold reserves as collateral for loans which indicates to me that gold could be remonetized.

AH: What do you mean by that, that's very important in broader terms?

NICK GOODWIN: Well it means that gold actually starts becoming the backing for the currency or for debt, which means they're actually attributing a value to that. Now if that starts happening, that's a very interesting situation. Also if I look at the international debt situation, it is mind boggling. I didn't realise how many countries
are actually in debt. And they're even talking about Europe now having problems, because they've lent all this money to Russia etc. So if the man in the street decides that he is going to buy gold, because actually, there is nothing else left - I mean currencies are falling out of bed, markets are falling out of bed. There are always people with money and they are looking for a new hole for this. And if it goes into gold, there is no gold, because all the gold has been absorbed by the jewellers - 100% of the gold, because the price is so low. The gold price could actually take off.

AH: Nick, let's look back, and I know we don't want to really get into depressing stuff, but if we look back to 1929 and perhaps to 1969, how did the gold price react to those situations?

NICK GOODWIN: '69 I don't have details with me now, but I can go back to '82 which was a very serious situation for the gold market, when the gold price dropped from 1980 from 800 to about 300. There was also a
political situation in 1982, which caused the gold price to go up. After that it moved, I'll tell you why it moved - I can't tell you now. Basically the situation with gold shares is that they have been in the Bear market for a few years, whereas the industrial market has been in the Bull market for 25 years. We've got two opposites here,
one which is extremely high, which is now coming off, and one which is extremely low which is about to go up. And if you look at the fundamentals on the mines: in the last six months, the profitability has increased tenfold. If you look at the December 1997 quarter, the mines in South Africa earned R100 million for the quarter. We're now looking at 1.1 billion coming up this quarter.

AH: We talk about your buy-plus signal having come up five times in the last twenty years. What happened in the other times?

NICK GOODWIN: Well no, I can just explain to you, when it came up, the average move of the index when that occurred in twelve months, was 100%. The maximum move was about 250%, the minimum move was about 60%, so I just feel extremely confident. I know we've been calling gold shares this whole year, and some people might be disappointed because they haven't performed as well as what we indicated. But you have to look at their relative performance, and the only sector which has beaten gold since January this year, is the IT sector. The Gold Index has gone down 5% since January against the All Share of 20%, and things like stores
have gone down 44%, chemicals 41%, beverages 23%.

AH: So you would have been well placed to have your money in gold?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, and I mean IT is only starting to crash. We haven't seen the end of that.

AH: Well let's hope not, because there are a lot of people with a lot of IT stocks where they are probably hoping that this is the one thing that will remain above board. Let's get on to your portfolio Nick, right now.

NICK GOODWIN: Right, the portfolio at this point in time should be structured as follows: Anglogold 30%, Gold Fields Ltd. 30%, Harmony 10%, Randfontein 10%, Western Areas 10% and Durban Deep 10%. And then if you
look on the outside of those, some other very interesting stocks are Gencor, JCI Gold and a speculative stock would be Gold Field core warrants. If you look under "Warrants" in the newspaper, look at Gold Field Cores - those are extremely high geared, so if anybody is looking for gearing, that's what they must buy.

AH: So the real gold Bulls can go for those warrants. Nick, if there is somebody who has done a bundle on the latest fall on the JSE, and they are looking to perhaps recoup their capital by investing in this kind of portfolio, is it possible with your system, that this could happen in the next few months?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I would say it's going to happen - once I get the safe-plus signal, within six weeks, there's a change. That's the longest that I've had to wait.

AH: Well good news indeed from our gold guru, Nick Goodwin, from Fedsure Asset Management.

I bought back into PDG @16.30 Cdn & am now on auto-pilot buying every 6% dip. Just bought my 2nd dip this morn. Maybe not a smart way to invest but it's easy as I have the orders in & if I get filled fine.
If we go below 250 POG I'll really back the truck up.

I think that the mkt will start to smell a fed easing & S&P & POG could rebound this week.

Interview with NICK GOODWIN - 28 August, 1998


AH: Hopefully, Nick Goodwin, our gold guru is going to be able to improve your weekend a little. Nick we had a chat before the programme and you've got some rather surprising news. Now the last time you were on the
show, you were quite Bullish about gold. Your feeling right now, since then, the gold price in dollars has fallen quite dramatically. In the past week, the All Gold Index is off 15%, it's not too bad for the month, 16% when you compare that Financials are down by 33%, but it's still quite a decline. What now?

NICK GOODWIN: Alec, I think I've got some good news here for listeners and that is on my system, which I've been running for twenty years, today I had a signal which is a called a safe-plus, which listeners might not
understand, but that means that it's a very rare signal. I've had I think five of these signals in twenty years, and looking back historically, the success rate of these signals have been 100%, which means the potential for the market to go up from these levels is 100%, which means there is no downside.

AH: Now let's remember we're only talking about the gold market.

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, not the JSE. Only the gold market. The gold price doesn't look too good I know that, but we actually buy gold shares, not gold price. I think I've said on here before that I don't actually predict the price. Something interesting about the price is that we are seeing a down-spike now and the major turnarounds in the past have been followed by a down-spike like this.

AH: What do you mean by a down-spike?

NICK GOODWIN: Well for instance, the prices dropped almost $15 in a week, and if you look at it on a graph, especially a straight line down, it doesn't sort of decay slowly, but just collapses. And we had similar situations in 1982, June 1982, when the price collapsed from about 350 to about 310 and turned around and rocketed up to 500 soon thereafter. In 1985 as well, the price dropped from 300 to about 280 within days, and turned around, and we've got a similar situation now. I'm expecting the price to turn around quite soon out of this spike, because the short sellers will start closing and that has an appeal that you'll be selling gold in the hope of buying it back later. Russia recently announced that they are going to start using the gold reserves as collateral for loans which indicates to me that gold could be remonetized.

AH: What do you mean by that, that's very important in broader terms?

NICK GOODWIN: Well it means that gold actually starts becoming the backing for the currency or for debt, which means they're actually attributing a value to that. Now if that starts happening, that's a very interesting situation. Also if I look at the international debt situation, it is mind boggling. I didn't realise how many countries
are actually in debt. And they're even talking about Europe now having problems, because they've lent all this money to Russia etc. So if the man in the street decides that he is going to buy gold, because actually, there is nothing else left - I mean currencies are falling out of bed, markets are falling out of bed. There are always people with money and they are looking for a new hole for this. And if it goes into gold, there is no gold, because all the gold has been absorbed by the jewellers - 100% of the gold, because the price is so low. The gold price could actually take off.

AH: Nick, let's look back, and I know we don't want to really get into depressing stuff, but if we look back to 1929 and perhaps to 1969, how did the gold price react to those situations?

NICK GOODWIN: '69 I don't have details with me now, but I can go back to '82 which was a very serious situation for the gold market, when the gold price dropped from 1980 from 800 to about 300. There was also a
political situation in 1982, which caused the gold price to go up. After that it moved, I'll tell you why it moved - I can't tell you now. Basically the situation with gold shares is that they have been in the Bear market for a few years, whereas the industrial market has been in the Bull market for 25 years. We've got two opposites here,
one which is extremely high, which is now coming off, and one which is extremely low which is about to go up. And if you look at the fundamentals on the mines: in the last six months, the profitability has increased tenfold. If you look at the December 1997 quarter, the mines in South Africa earned R100 million for the quarter. We're now looking at 1.1 billion coming up this quarter.

AH: We talk about your buy-plus signal having come up five times in the last twenty years. What happened in the other times?

NICK GOODWIN: Well no, I can just explain to you, when it came up, the average move of the index when that occurred in twelve months, was 100%. The maximum move was about 250%, the minimum move was about 60%, so I just feel extremely confident. I know we've been calling gold shares this whole year, and some people might be disappointed because they haven't performed as well as what we indicated. But you have to look at their relative performance, and the only sector which has beaten gold since January this year, is the IT sector. The Gold Index has gone down 5% since January against the All Share of 20%, and things like stores
have gone down 44%, chemicals 41%, beverages 23%.

AH: So you would have been well placed to have your money in gold?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, and I mean IT is only starting to crash. We haven't seen the end of that.

AH: Well let's hope not, because there are a lot of people with a lot of IT stocks where they are probably hoping that this is the one thing that will remain above board. Let's get on to your portfolio Nick, right now.

NICK GOODWIN: Right, the portfolio at this point in time should be structured as follows: Anglogold 30%, Gold Fields Ltd. 30%, Harmony 10%, Randfontein 10%, Western Areas 10% and Durban Deep 10%. And then if you
look on the outside of those, some other very interesting stocks are Gencor, JCI Gold and a speculative stock would be Gold Field core warrants. If you look under "Warrants" in the newspaper, look at Gold Field Cores - those are extremely high geared, so if anybody is looking for gearing, that's what they must buy.

AH: So the real gold Bulls can go for those warrants. Nick, if there is somebody who has done a bundle on the latest fall on the JSE, and they are looking to perhaps recoup their capital by investing in this kind of portfolio, is it possible with your system, that this could happen in the next few months?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I would say it's going to happen - once I get the safe-plus signal, within six weeks, there's a change. That's the longest that I've had to wait.

AH: Well good news indeed from our gold guru, Nick Goodwin, from Fedsure Asset Management.

If I read his forecast correctly, he is calling for a decline into
next year where the dollar is forced higher and further devalutions takes place causing additional selling of all commodities including oil. He then calls for the US to be forced to inflate by 2000 and projects a 3yr
bull market into 2003. PEI also projected that the bonds would be the best investment into 1999 due to rising US$ and capital flight to quality when the US & European stocks markets peaked on July 20th. So far everything they have said has come true. I can see that if everything continues to meltdown, then commodities will collapse further causing mining companies to shut-down thus cutting off supply and causing major bull market from 2000 onward. Everyone seems to argue that he is right on global metltdown, US stocks etc but he must be wrong on metals. So far, the parellel with 29 is holding on correlation basis but he is not calling for 90% drop in Dow - only 40%. His part-2 calls for the world to reflate in 2000. Therefore, it seems that those who hate this guy do so because of his timing. Lets face it. Are we goldbugs bashing Armstrong because he is saying metals down & we don't like it? Isn't that the same thing the stock jockey's demand that Aby Cohen remain bullish. No brokerage house lets their analyst say bear market ahead or crash because it is against their self-interest. We should be careful here. I for one think he might be right. If Russia goes nuts, the dollar will soar. That can't be good for commodities in short-term and that means PMs. I saw Armstrong speak in Vancouver. He said the best forecaster is the market. If the market moves against the fundamentals, the market is always right and the fundamentals people are looking at are wrong. The price action shows clearly that there are more sellers of metals than buyers. Armstrong also said that the real objective of all markets are to try to force the majority to be always wrong.

Infamous Russian politician says Clinton should stay home and marry Lewinsky

Copyright  1998 Nando.net
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service

MOSCOW ( August 31, 1998 12:13 p.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com ) - On the eve of a long-awaited Russia-U.S. summit, nationalist deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky told Russia's State Duma lower house that President Clinton should stay in the United States and marry Monica Lewinsky.

While his fellow deputies' minds were on Russia's economic and political crisis, Zhirinovsky advised the American president to leave his wife for Lewinsky, a former White House intern with whom he has admitted to having had an affair.

"A visit by President Clinton today is untimely, especially considering his recent moral scandal," Zhirinovsky said in a speech during hearings on confirmation of Acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in the Duma.

"We, as individuals with high moral character, would prefer not to meet a person who still can't sort out his relationship with his secretary," he added.

Zhirinovsky has displayed his own moral character by among other things beating a female deputy on the floor of parliament, using his face to sell "Zhirinovskaya Vodka" and making a film in which he cavorts with naked women.

"In the traditions of Russian society, in such situations one divorces the old wife and marries the secretary, to close the shameful page," he said.

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/business/280898/280898-nick.htm

Here are some snaps of the PPT at work.
All done with Bill CLinton on TV.
The first one is in Oct97.
Where they pushed the prem from -27 to +33.
A 60 point jump.
It took that much to turn the markets.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Prem10.gif
--------------------
Then this one was just last week.
When they pushed it from -5 to +9.
A 14 point move.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Fedbuy.jpg
---------------
Then today a 7 point move to slow the descent.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Prem31998.jpg
-------------------------------
Interesting to note the perfect timing with BC on TV.
Concerted intervention.

In Oct it was rumoured that the Feds intervened to the tune of approx $2 billion.
So these last few hits are chickenfeed.

There is no reaseon for them to not exceed HK's $20 billion of intervention.

How much could they afford??? $100 billion.
An it is within their right for the good of their country.

I'm sure the Moms and Pops would be greatfull if their Feds saved their butts.

Interesting to note that once again Kitco has gone down.
This happened twice last week after I mention Fed intervention.
3 times lucky or am I paranoid?

Should I try for 4???

Infamous Russian politician says Clinton should stay home and marry Lewinsky

Copyright  1998 Nando.net
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service

MOSCOW ( August 31, 1998 12:13 p.m. EDT http://www.nandotimes.com ) - On the eve of a long-awaited Russia-U.S. summit, nationalist deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky told Russia's State Duma lower house that President Clinton should stay in the United States and marry Monica Lewinsky.

While his fellow deputies' minds were on Russia's economic and political crisis, Zhirinovsky advised the American president to leave his wife for Lewinsky, a former White House intern with whom he has admitted to having had an affair.

"A visit by President Clinton today is untimely, especially considering his recent moral scandal," Zhirinovsky said in a speech during hearings on confirmation of Acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in the Duma.

"We, as individuals with high moral character, would prefer not to meet a person who still can't sort out his relationship with his secretary," he added.

Zhirinovsky has displayed his own moral character by among other things beating a female deputy on the floor of parliament, using his face to sell "Zhirinovskaya Vodka" and making a film in which he cavorts with naked women.

"In the traditions of Russian society, in such situations one divorces the old wife and marries the secretary, to close the shameful page," he said.

We seem to have a similar line of thinking. I believe gold mining shares will continue to slump over the next few weeks. ECO is actually holding up quite well today and over the past few days. I have an order in to buy ECO if it drops to 1 1/4 share. I am prepared to hold my shares until they rebound, which I think will be sooner than most expect. Thanks for your comments. GO GOLD!

just sent me a note back and all it said was..."Can you imagine the doughnut eating piglets we would get from that union." I am on the floor laughing...

Change to "Short Text Display". Things are grinding to a halt again. You can ease the server load by changing to "Short text" display and by pressing the submit button only once.

BTW any truth to the news that Yeltsin is leaving Russia? I hear that he has latched on to the Canadian weather balloon which is flying over Russia. The balloon has survived attacks by fighter pilots and is circumnavigating the globe. US balloonist Stephen Fauscett is eyeing Yeltsin's flight jealously.

The CNBC guys are doing an okay job of raising the level of fear, but it's still not enough of a drop for a bottom. I still think we need enough of a drop to make some investors wet their pants, the kind of drop that has folks barfing in the toilet, before we'll see any kind of real rally. Fear isn't terror yet. Let the mayhem begin.

Kinross rumored to have Russian exposure, and down today; any confirmation on Russian/KGC links?

Realistic:

You made fun of Puetz for saying the Dow would open down 100 Friday and it opened up instead. But it closed down 114. Why did you not congratulate Puetz for being essentially correct?

The sociologist C Wright Mills had a good term to define your "realism" He called it "crackpot realism. This kind of realism makes sense in a superficial way. But when examined closely it is absurd.

The NASDAQ is currently down over 5% Quite a hit, I'd say.

If Klintok had Russian morals, he'd probably be on his umpteenth wife.

I know you chuckled at least once...uh huh...C'mon now...fess up...

...to be passed on Thursday include among others such heinous measures as:

Presumption of guilt inferred by silence.

Land and Property can be seized if illegal weapons are found on property ( an illegal weapon is a handgun ) .

No right of assembly as Directing an unlawful organisation gets life sentence.

If the govt wants to they can incarcerate and interrogate individuals for up to 4 days just on mere suspiscion.

Reichstag, OKC, Dunblane, Port Arthur, Omagh. The stage is being set. Lay down your weapons. Insurrection has been made illegal.

S&P now at ~ 1000; October and December 1997 support is at 960 to 980.
Another 20 to 40 S&P points DOWWNNN before we rally IMHO. Maybe this week, maybe even TODAY???

There is a difference between "opening" and "closing" no?

Also, you spoke of a final leg down in Gold earlier today, didn't you mention something similar several times in the past?

You mentiond a "final downmove in the 20 month Gold Bear" at the end of October when Gold was still above 320...

Are you sure that it is a final leg down this time?

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 15:32
GEORGE COLE ( STOCK BEAR AND GOLD BEAR ) ID#42953:
Today's action sure looks like the BEGINNING OF A MAJOR STOCK BEAR and THE FINAL DOWNMOVE IN THE 20 MONTH GOLD BEAR.

Okay, I was overlooking the FDIC a bit. Also, Harry Schultz was advising people to get some of their money out of banks due to probable bank runs in 1999 ( even 1998, who knows? ) due to anxiety surrounding Y2K. Fractional reserves mean that these banks won't be able to pay everybody.

In a related matter, Boris was telling everyone to leave their money in the banks and that the State would insure them 100%. I don't think they are guaranteed against further devaluations though.

KGC has a 50% interest in Kubaka a 350,000+ ounce gold producer in Magadan ( sp? ) .

Seven Hundred Million Dollars Of Paper Makes For Alot Of Smoke!!!!!!!! This is just the start!~

You said earlier today that Gold has bottomed.

Last time you made such a statement ( last Wednesday ) , Gold has plummeted more than $10 the following couple of days.

Are you really sure it bottomed? ( Just checking... )

Date: Wed Aug 26 1998 10:24
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( GOLD BOTTOMED @ 278 ) ID#372262:
Dow topped at 9367! Buy gold. Sell Dow. It's a no-brainer!

Thanks lots for posting the Nick Goodwin stuff. Very encouraging. Need some of that once in a while.

I thought I had the URL for Kaplan but it doesn't bring it up.
Does anyone have the correct one? I had www.investor1.com/newsletters/kaplan/index.html

Thanks, GD

One observation, one question:

Observation:
The guy next to me just got a margin call from his broker...
Told wife: "Let's just sell and get out... I don't know if it's going back up." Sad. About $10,000.00 up in smoke.

Question:
My wife heard there were a few ( 2? 3? ) mutual fund companies that went out of business last week... Any truth? Any news? Just a rumor?

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

We have all made bad forecast; I certainly have made my share. But you seems afraid to make any forecast at all that I can remeber. Your general tone mirrors people like Abby Cohen though.

I ask again -- what are your projections for gold, bonds, and stocks?

http://www.investor1.com/

I can appreciate everone's position on this, but I have a problem with PEI...I just don't agree with them on PMs'...It was a half a**ed analysis and it didn't deserve the time to read it...Also for an economist to say "the market is the best forecaster", to me is saying "I don't know!". Then why do we need the economist...

Sorry, just found how to bring up. Thanks. GD

Interesting comment from one of the researchers over at Hightower Reports:

"We stand by the theory that Gold is a commodity that needs prosperity and right now we are at polar opposites of prosperity."

August 31, 1998

Duma rejects Yeltsin's choice for Prime Minister

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia's Communist-led parliament overwhelmingly rejected President Boris Yeltsin's choice of prime minister Monday in a move certain to prolong the country's economic agony.

Just 94 members of the 450-seat State Duma, the lower house of parliament, voted for acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, denying him the chance to form a government and prolonging the political turmoil that began a week ago when Yeltsin sacked Premier Sergei Kiriyenko.

The Communists, the biggest party in the Duma, led a group of 253 deputies who rejected Chernomyrdin. They backed out of a pact offered by the Kremlin over the weekend that made economic and political concessions and, scenting blood after five years of constitutional impotence, demanded Yeltsin's resignation.

"Russia today is, in essence, on the verge of economic and political breakdown," said Chernomyrdin, whom Yeltsin recalled a week ago to try to sort out Russia's financial mess.

"Russia should not be without a government."

A chilling reminder of that came Monday when a North Korean ballistic missile fell in Russia's Pacific waters, raising the alert among U.S., Japanese and Russian forces.

The Communists and their two allies form the biggest bloc in the Duma and are just short of a majority. Chernomyrdin needs 226 of the chamber's 450 votes to be confirmed in office.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/RUSSIA.html

Ol' Harry's still kicking around, eh? My Dad used to get his doom and gloom newsletters, what, 20 years ago? Did he miss the stock market bull along with Dines? I haven't been paying much attention to Harry.

1999 runs on banks are always possible, and Harry's not the first guy to predict that. I read what looks like a quasi-statistical analysis of K2K risk factors that put bank problems at 20% but regional power failures lasting more than a day at 55%. Can you get your money out of the bank in the dark? I think there's a name for that: looting?

Personally I'm putting something aside for a rainy day, a dark rainy day, just in case.

-EJ

Speaking of projections... now that the first half of 1998 has passed without Gold at $400+, are you sure that this time is the real final leg down as you mentioned earlier this morning?

Date: Sat Oct 04 1997 15:18
George Cole ( upside potential ) ID#430205:
Dundee: You have it right my friend! Since gold is cheaper now relative to financial assets than at any time since the early 1970s the upside potential is explosive. BB Fisher's forecast of $400-$500 by January may well be right on target. I am sticking with my forecast of $400+ during the first half of 1998.

Russia central bank doesn't want banks buying precious metals
Reuters Story - August 31, 1998 13:47
Jump to first matched term

MOSCOW, Aug 31 ( Reuters ) - Russia's central bank stopped releasing daily offer quotations for gold, silver and platinum as an indication to banks that they should not invest in the precious metals now, the bank's spokeswoman said on Monday.

"The central bank does not believe it necessary to give banks an indication that they should transfer money into assets which now have low liquidity, like gold," Irina Yasina told Reuters.

The central bank, which had released daily bid/offer quotations for gold, silver and platinum, from Friday began issuing only bids to buy the precious metals.

The bank had bid to buy gold at 68.09 roubles per gramme on Monday, down from 68.97 roubles on Friday, silver at 1.19 roubles per gramme from 1.23 roubles and platinum at 87.17 roubles per gramme, down from 89.91 on Friday.

Gold prices fell to a 19-year lows in Europe and in New York on Friday.

But on Thursday the Association of Russian Banks ( ARB ) said Russians had increased gold purchases in an attempt to trade in their devaluing rouble assets and in the face of limited foreign currency for sale.

The head of ARB's precious metals department, Dmitry Ignatyev, told a briefing that despite the 20 percent value added tax, Russians have bought about a tonne of gold from commercial banks last week.

ARB suggested that the central bank could sell up to 250 tonnes of gold from its reserves to commercial banks to satisfy public demand.

Russians rushed to buy dollars to preserve their savings after the government and central bank allowed an effective devaluation of the currency by widening the bands in which it would be permitted to fluctuate to 6.0/9.5 to the dollar from 5.27/7.13. It has allowed some trading outside those bounds.

Russia's main currency exchanges on central bank orders suspended trading last week because of pressure on the rouble after months of crisis.

Currency exchanges across Moscow offered rates of eight to nine roubles per dollar on Monday, though on the SELT electronic exchange the rouble was traded at an average rate of 10.8376 to the dollar and was as low as 13.00 roubles.

Sergei Kyshtymov, head of the central bank's precious metals department, told Reuters on Monday that the bank was ready to re-establish offer quotes for gold after rouble stabilisation.

"We will be ready to release two-way quotes when the bourse trade starts again," Kyshtymov said

MEMO ON THE MARGIN

August 31, 1998

The Ten Most Dangerous People on Earth

Memo To: Website Browsers, Fans, Clients
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: September Selections

1. Alan Greenspan: The Federal Reserve Chairman a year ago was on my list of "Ten Most Respected," but how quickly times change. For ten years, 1987-97, Greenspan managed the worlds most important currency by keeping his eye on its gold value. Now it turns out he is only interested in the gold price when it is going up, doing everything he can to stop its rise. When it began falling in late 1996 from its $383 plateau, we thought for sure he would alert the world to the perils of having it fall to a deflationary level, somewhere below $350 an ounce. It is now at $275 and Greenspan acts as if he doesnt know he is the principal author of the worldwide financial collapse now gathering steam. Unless he reverses course pronto, he will go down in history as one of its biggest goats.

2. Michel Camdessus: ..........

http://www.polyconomics.com/

When people start to recognize the fact that their mutual fund company can go broke and lock them into a burning market by simply switching the telephone system OFF .. THEN we will see a new attitide of fear and rage is the eyes of people who are lossing everything they have ever saved, and even what they have taken loans out to procure ( sever margin leverage to by Mutual Funds, etc ) .

Secondly, a Mutual Fund can simply give to you a piece of paper with numbers on it saying you own x shares in y, n shares in z, etc. The process can be so long that you would not see the paper ( to trade it ) for weeks. This is their perogative and stated in the 'agreement'.

When a significant number of the sheeple decide to cash out then you will see the exits blocked VERY QUICKLY. This is coming and will arrive on 14th Septmeber.

Avoid the rush.

What gold needs is fear. And we are at the edge. Fear will bring
a realistic view of fiat currencys and their worth=0.

Thanks, GD also thanks to Tolerant1 for info. Gulp to ya.

Oxygen is a commodity that needs life. Ridiculous. In both cases you don't get the latter without the former.

got former?

I have a suspicion either the author or the editor of that NY Times article, or both, are on more than one payroll. If USG cannot peel the mid-East Euro-bugs away, it will attack the nest of the Euro-bugs. The IMF is letting Russia swing in the wind and telling the world there was nothing for it but a hanging.

@No doubt the mutual funds keep your "cash" in a vault on their premises and not in a bank vault.

@I think it is plain that in their publicized meeting Clinton told Rubin and Greenspan that it is in the national security interest of the United States for US equity markets to be stable or rising whenever the President addresses the nation.

@Banks once said deposits with them were safe. Now, they have a special place called a safe deposit. Banking is a carny show.

@Average people don't even know the word statist. But, they do understand government is not the friend their politicians and people like ROR claim it is when real people with names are impoverished and hounded by government bill collectors.

STOCKS TUMBLE AS AGREEMENT CRUMBLES
Stocks fell 5-15 percent during the first 45 minutes after the Russian stock exchange opened on 31 August, Interfax reported. Bloomberg cited traders who predicted that the Duma's rejection of Chernomyrdin would be bad for the market. JAC

DEFENSE MINISTRY PREPARED FOR TROUBLE
"Komsomolskaya pravda" reported on 29 August that the Defense Ministry has been sending out "secret instructions" to the commanding officers of units based in Moscow, Tula, Ryazan, and Tver to be ready for an emergency situation. The leadership of the armed forces is also preparing operational documents for coordinating the actions of army units and MVD troops in the "event of mass disturbances." The paper also reports that Defense Minister Igor Sergeev assured President Yeltsin in a recent private meeting of his "complete loyalty" and pledged the army's support during "this difficult period for Russia." On 29 August, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported that State Duma Security Committee chairman Ilyukhin, said that he received information from various military units about a "suspicious intensification of their activities." Tank units have been supplied with fuel. JAC

YELTSIN HAD AGREED TO POWER SHIFT
According to the version of the proposed political agreement initialed by Chernomyrdin and Duma leaders on 30 August, the Duma agreed not to initiate either a no-confidence vote or an impeachment proceeding for a period of 18 months. At the same time, Yeltsin would agree not to disband the parliament during the same time period. In addition, the prime minister would appoint cabinet ministers together with the parliament, while the president would retain the right to appoint ministers of defense, security, and foreign affairs. At the Communist Party's urging, the document also contained a proposal for a new media law that would allow for increased public control over TV and radio outlets. JAC

http://www.rferl.org/newsline/fulltext.html

Actually, the truth is that gold doesn't need prosperity.
Prosperity needs gold. There is no longer any prosperity left in the
fiat money game. Only real money will bring about good times again.
The longer "they wait" the worse the depression will be.

Get realistic, Realistic. GOLD is REALISTIC. paper is 0.

Thanks, GD

I buy my Maple Leafs from a coin dealer in one of the larger cities in Canada. The man there told me that my last order of 6 coins will be a week being filled since they are waiting for their order to come in ( from the Mint, I assume ) . He said that they used to be able to keep inventory, but that everything they order now is pre-sold before they receive it.

He said it's prohibitive from cash flow perspective to have $50,000 to $100,000 per week tied up in gold. He says that he thinks people are obviously buying more gold than they used to. $50k to $100k per week may not be much in the great scheme of things, but I assume this is typical of other dealers. I think this is good news. ( for now, since they are still able to fill my orders )

about is akin to the rush of air you hear just underneath a horses tail...or at least the source...like you said, can't have one without the other...

what is the significance of sept 14?

( off topic from a few days back: Mark 13:26 re: antichrist coming before Christ )

If gold were to breakout at this point the market would breakdown on the spot... For this reason alone we can fully expect to see the ppt keep the pog at the very least flat... Now if Japan were to step in the market during over night tradind that would be a different story.. Speaking of Japan things have been very quiet there lately and that tells me the other shoe is about to drop!

the work of the murdering swine who rob through taxation...people are just that ignorant...plain and simple...save gold, hand out a condom to every dummy you meet and save the rest of us...

TVX HELLAS has spent so far $150 million for the development of the 2 mines ( Northern Greece ) . The costs have been for the purchasing of the mines, their environmental restoration, the training of the locals into the art of mining, etc.

The total TVX investment for the full development of the 2 world class mines will be $550 million. TVX has signed agreements with the Greek government to employ a minimum of 550 Greeks in the mines. TVX now employs 870 people from which 85% are locals ( from the areas surrounding the mines ) , while 97% of the total employed are Greeks.

Tony BULL

Sharefin, It looks like the dow was in mid freefall during that PPT session today, afterwhich it quickly recovered.

EJ, Harry has been in stocks for quite awhile with stops, leaps puts. He goes long and short at the same time on stocks. In last issue, he advised readers to sell 1/2 to 3/4 of stocks if the Dow closed below 8377. He says all out sell signal under 7348 Dow ( SPX 893 ) . Last year he had one of those sell 1/2 signals on Oct 27. The dow, thanks to the PPT, reversed the next day. He didn't talk about it afterwards.

He has had a few good calls including a good run up on Dell. I don't pay too much attention to his individual stock picks though. Even in his last newsletter July 6, he said stocks were likely to go higher which they did peaking 2 weeks later. His latest letter is out today. Somehow I doubt he is too bullish on stocks.

As to increasing Y2K awareness & discussion, that was Harry's #1 prediction for 1998. I should go dig up that issue to see how he's doing on other predictions.

http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm

and

http://38.209.4.67/arc/rundown98b.html

Still laughing!

August 31, 1998

Tyson to take $196 million Q4 charges, close plants

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Leading U.S. chicken processor Tyson Foods Inc. said Monday it will record $196 million in fiscal fourth quarter charges as it streamlines production at its poultry plants and accounts for exposure to troubled Russian and Asian economies.

Springdale, Arkansas-based Tyson, whose fourth quarter ends October 3, announced plans last month to close plants, cut its work force and write down goodwill, but it quantified the restructuring charges on Monday.

Tyson will record $143 million in restructuring costs and write-downs and an additional $53 million in other charges, including $30 million in reserves for credit, inventory, currency and political risk in the company's export business to Russia and Asia, both of which have endured economic turmoil.

Prudential's McMillin noted that Tyson's stock has been hit hard in recent days, due largely to ideas that the company's exposure to Russia would cut earnings. But McMillin said Tyson's exposure to Russia represents a relatively small portion of the company's more than $6 billion in annual sales.

"At the end of the day, Tyson's core business is with McDonald's," McMillin said. "It's not with Russia."
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/TYSON.html

Reusable BARF BAG!

By Jennifer Westhoven

NEW YORK, Aug 31 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were sharply lower
at midday as the market continued one of the steepest slides in
recent memory, disappointing many on Wall Street who had hoped
that the bottom was at hand.

-- I'm not disappointed. "Many on Wall Street" were getting $1M bonuses for the same performance as the average stock index fund and thinking they deserve it. My bear mutual funds are up over 20% in a few weeks. Bite me, Jennifer.

At 1215 EDT/1615 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
down 114 points, or 1.42 percent, at 7937. At one point, the
average moved below 7908, wiping out all of its 1998 gains.

-- Oh. Imagine my surprise.

The Dow, which rallied nearly 44 points at the opening
bell, moved quickly into the red. The losses mounted to 176
points on sharp program selling, traders said, before the
market pared the losses somewhat.

"Everyone said this morning we were oversold, so we had to
rally. But we could easily get more oversold," said Ned
Collins, head of trading at Daiwa Securities America, who was
particularly worried by the Nasdaq.

-- Who's "everyone," Ned? Most of the folks here at Kitco don't think "we" are oversold. Yes "you" can easily get more "oversold," or, from "our" perspective, wind up less "overbought" in a wildly inflated speculative bubble that is popping out from under you.

The Nasdaq was the hardest hit of the major U.S. stock
indices, as investors dealt sharp blows to high-tech stocks.
The Nasdaq was off 74 points, or 4.5 percent, to 1565.

-- Dell market cap went from $3B to $47B in three years. Wonder why investors are are dealing sharp blows on tech stocks?

Traders and analysts said that Monday's losses were more a
matter of psychology than fundamentals.

-- Wrong. The psychology is now coming in line with the market fundamentals.

Many were worried that the dip, the first time the Dow fell
below 8,000 since early February, might scare off the
individual investor.

-- Yup.

"When does the individual investor finally chicken out?"
said Jay Meagrow, a trader at McDonald Securities.

-- How about last Friday and today, tomorrow, the day after, etc.

Such an exodus might represent the bottom of the recent
stock market slump, some analysts said, but so far there are
few signs that the end of the slump is near.

-- No end at all. In fact, wait until investors hear the bright news coming gout of Latin America and Japan this week.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

-- Thanks.

-- -EJ

"Russia central bank doesn't want banks buying precious metals..."

Looks like the Russian CB is jumping the gun on my scenario:

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:47
Think Long & Hard On This ( Gold Rubles ) ID#358309:

May I present the following scenario:
1. Russians tout gold ruble currency. Goldbugs rejoice!
2. Markets recover somewhat in sucker rally
3. Markets begin to crash - this time it's the big one
4. Investors discover gold and the price rises
5. Gold ruble rejected, list of reasons given why it wouldn't work as a currency in today's world
6. Gold price tanks - rookie investors lose shirts, go back to paper.
Big one postponed yet again...

That article was from The Sunday Times ( London ) . The first 2 paragraphs:

Tony Blair held urgent telephone discussions with fellow world leaders yesterday amid increasing worries that the Russian crisis, on top of the situation in Asia, will lead to a global economic slump.

There are also fears among European leaders that even at this late stage the storm blowing through world financial markets could hit the start of the single currency, planned for January 1. Helmut Kohl, the German chancellor, said Russia's crisis would cause "enormous problems" in international financial relations.

The Web tends to slow, when the dow starts to go
Down.

August 31, 1998

Rioters rampage in Indonesian town after troops pull out

JAKARTA, Indonesia ( AP ) -- Soldiers fired warning shots into the air and tear gas at thousands of rioters who roamed a northern Indonesian town today, hurling stones at shops and burning a hotel, a ruling party office and other buildings.

It was the biggest riot in Indonesia since mid-May,

There were no immediate reports of arrests or injuries. The unrest in the town of Lhokseumawe erupted after more than 600 Indonesian soldiers left Aceh province in a conciliatory gesture by the military, which is accused of atrocities there.

There are fears that Indonesia's economic crisis and the strain on millions of poor people could lead to bigger riots.

The departure today of 664 troops wrapped up a partial withdrawal from Aceh, where government investigators have unearthed bones of victims allegedly killed by the military and dumped into mass graves.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Indonesia-Riots.html

You say prosperity is the key to a gold bull. I say it is a combination of fear and a weak dollar. Even better would be a reorganization of the global monetary ssytem giving gold a substantial role. The current system has proved diastrous to all but hedge funds and currency traders.

Realistically gold never had a chance until the paper system self destructed as it is doing today. Now I think there is a good chance gold ultimately will have a role to play again.

Ugly folks...it is getting ugly.

Tom

Since we have no Golden CheeseHead to give the DOW stats,
I'll just say this in my best GC impression:

DOW IN FREEFALL!! 150 points in 15 minutes!! -315 and falling!

Ok... I didn't use ALL CAPS, but you get the point.

MG ( Go Gold! )

.

Interesting to note American reactions to the DJIA going down! The same happened last week in South Africa when the bottom really fell out of the market.

August 31, 1998

FOCUS-World markets tumble, recession talk mounts

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - World financial markets resumed their slide on Monday with U.S. blue chip stocks retreating to 1997 levels amid a sweeping sell-off that raised new talk of the possibility of global recession.

"Our take on the U.S. profits, balance sheet and banking system exposure to all emerging markets and other potentially 'at risk' countries is that it's a fairly small share of the total," said Lehman Brothers strategist Jeffrey Applegate.

"Global equity markets have essentially priced for a global recession that we don't think will happen," he said.

Economists and strategists have argued that for the global recession model to come to fruition, economies in either the United States or Western Europe would have to succumb. A minority see such a development at hand.

But in the current environment, it is hardly surprising that concerns about global recession have emerged, analysts said.

"In a market panic, investors are only interested in avoiding pain," said Credit Suisse First Boston strategist Christine Callies. "Facts are trampled in the process."

"We doubt that a recession is likely within the next 12 to 18 months, which places it outside the market's analytical time horizon," Callies said.

Earlier, Bundesbank directorate member Edgar Meister also said the international reaction to the Russian crisis was exaggerated and its impact on Europe's economy was more psychological than real.

Gold prices offered no haven. Russia's central bank said Monday it has stopped releasing daily quotes for gold, silver and platinum as an indication to banks they should not invest in the precious metals now.

"The central bank does not believe it necessary to give banks an indication that they should transfer money into assets which now have low liquidity, like gold," bank spokeswoman Irina Yasina said in Moscow.

Sliding currencies in gold-producing countries like South Africa, Australia and Canada triggered producer selling which further dragged the bullion price and other precious metals also felt the pressure.

Gold for December delivery was quoted at $279.20 an ounce in early afternoon on COMEX, up $1.30 an ounce.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/MARKETS-GLOBAL.html

If this is not a panic, i don't know what is. Unfortunately gold stocks taking their lumps along with everything else.

If this is not a panic, i don't know what is. Unfortunately gold stocks taking their lumps along with everything else.

Worth repeating.... ( from Reuters - Aug 31 )
The head of Russia's ARB's precious metals department, Dmitry Ignatyev, told a briefing that despite the 20 percent value added tax, Russians have bought about a ton of gold from commercial banks last week.
ARB suggested that the central bank could sell up to 250 tonnes of gold from its reserves to commercial banks to satisfy public demand.

can be no curbs to stop it, this baby can drop as far as it needs to... uh huh...glairing error eh...

I would hate to be the PPT in Japan holding all them longs. It is going to get ugly in Asia tonight, and Europe tomorrow. It appears that early globex trading helped stem the losses in Europe this afternoon.

NYSE pre-closing imbalances for Monday, August 31

NEW YORK, Aug 31 ( Reuters ) - The New York Stock Exchange reported the following pre-closing imbalances on Aug. 31. BEL 120000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MU 104000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE LH 767300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE RS 51600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE JNJ 80000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE LLY 90000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE KMB 66300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE CPQ 70300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE IP 71200 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE PEP 160400 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE T 732600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE G 149200 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE G 146000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE HWP 105000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE HD 103000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE CAM 327600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE PVT 59400 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE AHP 76400 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE LU 100200 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE XON 356800 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE UCP 64500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE KO 104600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MOB 52900 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE PAH 150000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MRK 111600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE RS 64500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE MO 296900 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE PG 78600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE TRV 122000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE SBC 60000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MAT 59000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MTC 90000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE PFE 57200 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE CNC 54000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE F 66600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE BDK 100000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MORE

FRE 57100 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE AFL 68000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE WLA 79300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE AIT 83000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE DD 85400 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE FTU 140000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE AN 114100 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE AIG 59500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE RD 180000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE ONE 77000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE IBM 90500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MTB 6800 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE NMK 91000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE TYC 58100 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE EK 147000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE BAC 87600 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE NB 87000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE GE 258000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE GM 344900 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE FNM 50500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE TX 61200 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE DIS 152000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE BLS 70000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE AMT 60500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON BUY SIDE BA 90000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MCD 108400 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE WMT 136000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE KIM 54000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE CAT 76000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE ALL 111500 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE NOB 74700 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MORE

MWY 83300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE HRC 57300 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE XRX 70000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE KRB 59000 SHARES IN EXCESS ON SELL SIDE MORE

A few times throughout the day, I listened to Bloomberg updates in the car. Their business "wheel" usually includes gold quotes after NYMEX crude oil. Not today......what, are "they" afraid that "flight to safety" will switch from Treasuries to the REAL safe haven --- gold???

http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-22656

Peter Lynch was once asked:
"How do you know when to buy stocks and when to sell them?!"
He answered:
"When I tell people what I do and am treated like a used car salesman -- that is the time to buy. When I am given advice by my barber on what stocks to buy, that is the time to sell."

I was thinking it would be an appropriate message to mark 500 point DJ fall today.

But then again, Lynch was one of these old-fashioned Mutual Fund managers who believed in these silly ideas like fun-duuh-mentals. Forgoten among the new, global economy, MacDonald's in every Russian village, US Supremacy, every American a king, crowd.

What a fabulous opportynity to BUY today, barbers of America. Unless, of course, you start feeling that old-fashioned phenomenon in your knees ( could that be FEAR?!!! FEAR? FEAR? ....

One of the "BARBERS OF AMERICA" scolded me over my stash of gold coins after describing his recent purchase of GM stock: "Don't you know gold has no intristic value, but only the value we artificially assign to it?" I walked away ashamed of my old-fashioned stupidity.

Mt. Everest Dow
Down
down
down
down
down
down
down
down
Ground Zero down The Mushroom Zone
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Buy sheeple buy!
By sucka's by!! FEAR WILL LEAD TO PANIC SELLING ON THE MORROW AS THE PRESSURE TO DEVALUE OVERSEAS HITS FULL FORCE!!! THANK GOD FOR REAListic POSTERS LIKE CHEESEHEAD AND PUETZ!!!! Everyone here at Kitco was amply warned of this debacle. If you got tagged it's your own fault! Blame EB and Realistic and Gollum's flights of fancy for your losses!

As CEO of Gollum A&A I would like to assure all concerned that all of our aircraft were safely on the ground by noon today. There is no cause for alarm nor to lend any credance to some of the vicious rumors spread by any of our competitors, many of whom were not so fortuneate.

As of this moment I can not say when regularly scheduled flights will resume. This is through no action of our own but rather chaotic conditions of which I am sure you are all aware.

We are grateful to our loyal patrons and in light of the inconveniences any may be having we offer our help in arranging ground transportation for all who might be in need.

Silent and motionless, huddled 'round the large poker table, are the young guns. Sickly intoxicated by self-granted esteem and their abundantly flowing shallow wit, they have unreservedly bet it all....and much more. These lately-pubic puppies will now be harvested by the seasoned, accurate dead-eye aim of the Shootist. Blood flows in the all street saloon. Bang! Bang! Bang!

The Dow will go to 7K
Not because I say so
But because it will
Yes

As I recall he didn't just beat that woman politician on the Duma floor, he also tried to strangle her.

Also I read a few years ago purported comments by Zhirinovsky that one day soon He would be president of Russia and Jean-Marie LePen would be president of France. He said that he and Jean-Marie would get together and declare a war. They would drink champagne and eat caviar while Russia would send its Chechnyans and France would send her Negroes.

CHOP-ASAKI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the diaspora has knocked upon the door......
wait until it's kicked in.....

the world in flames....at your neighborhood drive-in...NOW!

cherokee!; ) ....loading.the.plane.with.provisions.....

That ruled. At about noon I started getting "that feeling" and decided that at 3pm I'd go over to my broker to sell my PUT options. So I go over there, and tell him I'm going to sell ( DOW down about 250 pts and rising ) and he says okay, but that I should have come over earlier. I say, yeah, okay, and put in my sell for much more than the options were worth, he's like you'll never get it, and I'm like, yeah, okay. So we sit there after the order goes in, watch the DOW drop 300 pts together, and all my options sell for outrageous prices, even in my opinion. Just an awesome afternoon. It was so nice to make money on options when just weeks ago those same brokers were giving me crap for buying them. When I was leaving, they congratulated me, and one of the brokers, I didn't hear what he was saying, but I heard him say "... okay, but I want to know what HE is doing", and pointed to me. *grin*. That ruled.

I changed my strategy from last night and sold out today ( I had planned to hold the options through a rally ) . Now I'm just going to sit and see if we have a rally or not. I suspect we'll see a rally now, that was a pretty good wash.

Gallion with DEC AG silver options ? I've still got $12 lookin for work ! Help/SOS !


Y.O.S.,...,


TAR BABY

First let me express that this does not come from cleaverness or wisdom on my part. In fact, I am a foolish man. But as I inquired of my Lord Jesus Christ regarding the times of trouble which He indicated were at hand, He revealed that a series of panics would start on that date. This would culminate in martial law being declared in August of 1999 in the USA.

I share this here because people have been receptive to some word of Christ which I have shared in past months. Since I have not been rejected for this, and these words have been heard to some degree, it seems that all those here should receive some benefit for that willingness to hear. I have received Isaiah 26:20-21 recently, which is very pertinent.

As I have expressed before, my heart is very heavy and sad for the difficulties which people are and will be facing very soon. But His judgements are just and will yeild a peacable fruit in those who willingly receive it and repent. If we try to resist Him, then there really is no hope. The fires will burn. We need to cry out for His mercy and grace in our time of need ( which is always, but now we actually see it more clearly ) .

I have mentioned this date a few times because it was clearly given and clearly received. Possibly I am deluded. The date is stated here because I am putting what I have on the line in public here to be tested. When this is confirmed by actual events then we all will know, and not just claim a foreknowing. I certainly wish to honor the One I serve. He is indeed the sovereign LORD over all. Jesus is the one who rules over the nations, bending them to the history He is writing at this very time.

~~~~~~~~

Let me be clear about what I asked and what He gave. I asked "When will the 'panics' start?" Immediately the Holy Spirit said "September". Later, at the beginning of August, I wrote in my journal, 'we have 4 to 6 weeks to prepare' and the Holy Spirit corrected me, saying "Six". This exactly brings us to 14th September.

I do not know what panic will start, but it appears a panic regarding financial markets, et al. But this is only the first of many to sweep the world. The events and market activity we are seeing today will continue but we will not see 'panic' until then. Then we will learn what that word means.

"Don't you know that your Father in heaven cares much more for you than for a sparrow? Yes! Even more than many sparrows." - Jesus Christ

Little sparrows, it is time to seek your refuge in Him.

Hey, for the few posts that I make this BEARS repeating.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 10:13
iAtolU ( CNBC BLOOPER ?? ) ID#420116:
The announcer on CNBC, Falicia Tayler, just said:
"Gold & silver are both up.
A flight to quality - err I mean safe haven".

Yes, Falicia pulled a boner.
Now we know why she has that nasty smile.

Last Oct 27th, or so, the DOW went down 500 points to around 7100.
The next day I shifted my 401K got back into market and have been
out since May 15. Not this time. Wait till the dummies get their
monthly mutual fund statments. Look for a mini interday suckers rally tomorrow and at least another 500 point drop for the week after the
fools meet in Russia
then down


The next morning down

Here is an AOL pool of the market.

In light of recent market conditions, what are you doing with your portfolio?
Buying 5132
23.8%

Selling 3089
14.3%

Holding 13307
61.8%

Total votes: 21528


What do you feel are the "safest" investments at this time?
Stocks 4515
21.2%

Bonds 2663
12.5%

Mutual Funds 2831
13.3%

Cash / Money Markets 11293
53.0%

Total votes: 21302


Given ongoing economic problems in Russia, Japan, and Latin America, what is your opinion of international investments?
I don't own any 8064
38.3%

They're still good investments 5376
25.5%

Too risky for me 7616
36.2%

Total votes: 21056


Where do you expect the market to be in 3 months?
Much Higher ( +10% or more ) 4790
22.4%

Higher ( +5% - 10% ) 7313
34.2%

About the Same ( +/- 5% ) 3690
17.3%

Lower ( -5% - 10% ) 2905
13.6%

Much Lower ( -10% or more ) 2671
12.5%

Total votes: 21369

No changes for Gold....And Silver shows another significant adjustment from Eligible to Registered...
*************************************************************************
TOTAL REGISTERED
43,180,772 0 5,220 -5,220 357,012 43,532,564
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
35,505,862 0 0 0 -357,012 35,148,850
COMBINED TOTAL
78,686,634 0 5,220 -5,220 0 78,681,414
*************************************************************************
The above stats are for Silver. As you can see, there were 5,220 oz's
removed from registered stock, and an adjustment of 357,012 oz's that
were transferred from eligible to registered. Total eligible Silver is
now down to approx. 35 million oz's. I'm not sure if the post from
jefsilver7 was supposed to show 20 million oz's added to Comex today or
tomorrow. It apparantly wasn't today. ( There was supposedly a rumour that
Goldman Saches had bought 4000 contracts of Comex Silver and now were
selling them and returning them to Comex depositories? ) I'm not sure I
have the facts right. This was from a post this morning by jefsilver7...
Well, it doesn't make since to me that they would have taken delivery and
now they're selling them back to Comex at a lower Silver price, plus the
transaction costs! Maybe he meant something else. Anyway, we didn't see
any 20 million oz move today, in Comex stocks. I doubt we'll see it
tomorrow either. With the DOW plummeting, might we be getting to the point where the PM's might at least be holding steady??
If so, they'll be rising pretty soon,IMHO... Foxman

This is the type of sell-off I was expecting about a week ago. I was
looking for a decline to around 7000, a rebound into the lunar-eclipse
this week-end. Then the big crash during the last 3 weeks of
September. This would follow the normal pattern of a crash.

Normally, each leg down has a bigger panic at its bottom. The first
leg down ended with a mini-panic on August 4th. This may be marking
the end of the 2nd leg down. If so, any sharp sell-off tomorrow may
mark the end of leg 2. May may see something like 300 to 700 points
lower tomorrow, early in the day, then a large recovery before the
end of the day. Such a rally may last until the end of this week.

The quandry I face is this: Do I get out of my put options tommorrow --
while the market is falling apart, and try to re-establish my positions
later in the week? Or, do I hold then through a potential rally -- knowing
the DJIA will fall as low as 3000 before the end of September.

I greatly fear missing out of the big crash, in the hope that I can gain
a larger position later this week. The big crash will take place on
much greater volume than we had today. Yet, today's panic was
greater than the one on August 4th.

Everything still looks like it's on course from a tremendous September
crash. It's the next few days where I'm slightly confused. Objectively,
I'd have to say there's a better of a rally than a decline. But there is
no way I'd buy calls, only lighten up on puts.

DJIA 3000 awaits within a month.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

THE GOLDEN PROPHET @ "THANK GOD FOR REAListic POSTERS LIKE CHEESEHEAD AND PUETZ!!!! Everyone here at Kitco was amply warned of this debacle."

Yes we were warned
Every day for two years
Every day since the down was below 5000
And almost every day, the Dow went up
Every day until they were right - once
A stopped clock had these fellows beat
Twice every day until today

I am wholly unimpressed
With this type of forecasting
Puetzs predictions in particular
Bear a direct and inverse correlation
Twits market drops
And sunrises

Righty O

IDT - I hope you took advantage of the recommemded sell price on the SnP last night ( 1040 ) and held on for the objective ( 950 ) at the monthly support line. I covered my shorts and went long at the end of the day ( 956 ) . 85 0ut of 89 SnP points, who says charting doesn't work? If we're luckly there is going to be a massive short covering rally lasting into Fri. and maybe we can get short again at 1040. Still long gold, stopped out of the silver.

I read your letter ( written a few weeks ago ) in BULL & Bear
newspaper. You may been off a little last year, but you
were right on the money this time. A great call.

I just double-checked my trading accounts and I can't find any long positions in the stock markets for the last couple of months, I do see some short S&P puts though.

Just because I legitimately question extreme crash and doom and gloom scenarios does't know mean that I'm long in the equities, what do you think?

Can you find and post any messages of mine that I sent out related to being long in stocks over the last few months?

And as you run accross YOUR predictions, can you enlighten us all on your forecast of Gold bottoming last Wednesday just before its $10 drop?

Thanks a lot for checking, it's appreciated.

Date: Wed Aug 26 1998 10:24
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( GOLD BOTTOMED @ 278 ) ID#372262:
Dow topped at 9367! Buy gold. Sell Dow. It's a no-brainer!

Kind of like how you bought all that plat at the bottom $400.
Made the mistake of reading your post. Never again. Get a life.
iAtolU

think him and Clintler will get along just fine, maybe America will get lucky and Clintler will stay there...gulp to ya...

Also, where did you buy in on Gold, and what contract month?
And finally, at what price will you attempt to get back in ( long )
on Comex Silver? TIA Foxman

For countless months the eminent expert on Far-Eastern markets has
warned repeatedly that Asian currency and stock market turmoil will
eventually and inevitably wash up on western shores. Needless to say
John Kutyn's dire forecast may yet prove on the conservative side -
if Wall Street's CRASH today is any indication of the deluge to come.

DOW PLUNGES 512 & NASQAQ PLUMMETS 140 POINTS - closing on the day's low. With possible HURRICANE FORCE Wall Street's price waterfall may rip-tide back to Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, China and Taiwan in the next 3 to 4 hours as the sun rises in the East. It will be a feeding frenzy for the BEARS as stocks and currencies waste away in value.

Analyst John Kutyn advised us nearly a year ago of the then looming
Asian Crisis. His monthly predictions of deterioration based upon
insightful analysis was uncannily and grimly accurate. His current report reviews what has occurred to date and why and most importantly what is to come?

Mr. Kutyn's conclusions are startling and very thought-provoking. It's not a pleasant picture the Asian Contagion is indeed pervasive and will continue to crash on western shores.

It is acutely important to be aware Asian currencies AND stocks have
already lost most of their value. The same fate awaits the greenback
and Wall Street. Asians fled to the US dollar for safety - as their
currencies burned. To what will North-Americans flee when the US$
begins to burn?! Mr. Kutyn's keen insights sheds light on the dark
future.

An additional interesting ramification envisioned by Kutyn is:
"The control of the treasuries of Europe through the European Central
Bank will be the key element in collapsing the U.S. dollar and driving up
the price of gold."

The US buck is destined to follow suit of the near worthless Asian
Currencies.

A must read at the following URL - delete the extra letters "en" in the
word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/kutyn082498.html

New Zealand NZSE 40 6:02PM 1768.50 -59.06 -3.23%

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

DECEMBER GOLD UP $2.10 http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

http://cnn.com/POLL/results/23621.html
http://cgi.zdnet.com/zdpoll/question.html?pollid=6587?tion=a

You're preachin' to the converted! We've been out for over a year already waitin' for this disaster, thank-you! But glad to see you and yours confirm the direness of the hour. Perhaps Realistic and EB will finally get it, too!

The long bond yield closed in NY at 5.26%, the lowest in 30 years. For months I have warning of a runaway deflationary phase that started in Feb, 1998 . Today, with the DOW down 512 points, you are beginning to see deflationay devastation descending on our land. I have refined my end of the crash prediction to DOW 4200-4500 by the end of Sep ( with temporary rallies ) . The long bond is saying loud and clear, depression starting early in 1999. Are you ready ?

Looks like the BRIEF period DEC. GOLD went below @278 wasn't long enough to take a dump! BIS boys are buyin' it as we speak! UP UP AND AWAY IN MY BEAUTIFUL BALLOON!

Your point about people getting their mutual fund statements is dead on. If they are mailed at the close of the month ( mailed tomorrow ) , just watch what happens. Although I suspect there since it's the talk of the Nation right now, that inquiries will be made before they get the statements. It's unbelievable that most people are holding and some are buying, while only a small percentage are selling.

Hey RJ, great "Self-Parody" You've got a good sense of humor. A man that can laugh at himself is ok in my book. My apologies to you for my snide remarks the other night.

( Received today )

DOW Forecast: crash Sept 12 +/- 2 trading days to below 6000, followed ( possibly ) by a SECOND Crash in the October-December time frame to target DOW 2675 - 3675

Bonds forecast: Wave 5 top in the area of 126-29 to 128-20 ( 5.33-5.20% yield )

US Dollar forecast: Wave 5 top in the area of 105.10 to 105.19

Gold forecast: Distant chart support in the $180-200 range; ultimate target closer to $100/oz

WHY? THE BIG BOYS ARE ALREADY OUT AND SHORT!!!! BASTARDS!!

Maybe some of you folk NEED to be unkind and fault others for their THOUGHTS but just maybe all should be somewhat kinder in the comments made relative to the THOUGHTS of others. Yes?

Who among you really knows the future?

Tom

called it a glitch...aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

It sounds like Zhirinovsky is the perfect judge of character in this case...sort of "it takes one to know one" or "the pot calling the kettle black." The part that is truly rich is that even Zhirinovsky ( with all of his character baggage ) is saying to Clinton "we don't need your ilk stinking up the place".

Wow. What an indictment! A bigger slap I cannot imagine.... unless the likes of Stalin were to rise up and call him a back-stabbing sunnuvabich.

I meant US Dollar INDEX.

First, do we really want to wish for a Global debacle? The Markets will do what they will. Our desire should not be for a meltdown of the Global financial system, SHOULD IT? This will not benefit anyone, including the holders of gold. There is no doubt in my mind that the turning point in gold is upon us or very near, but I certainly don't want to see the kind of meltdown that some are advocating! I'am not saying that you should not be positioned properly in the event that things get nasty, but to hope for it is, IMHO....... well,you know. Gold is the buy of a lifetime down here but doesn't need Global meltdown to begin its ascent.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.38. The 233 day moving average is 28.33. In the past breaking through the 233 day moving average has provided up to 4 days notice of a crash.

Funny, I looked up to the heavens yesterday and saw a half moon on the day before the second worst point drop in DOW history, and the WORST point drop in Nasdaq history.

This is about as far from an eclipse / full moon as we can get. Not only that, but the "100 point drop" call everyone is lauding, seems to be off by a factor of 4.

I'm as baffled as RJ and Realistic as to how anyone can see these "predictions" as a "hit" ....particularly given the record of "misses". Hmmm, maybe I'll start forecasting a huge new bull market in stocks every day for the next 10 years..... to occur only on a Quarter Moon of course ( or within a few weeks of one ) and then be lauded by Kitco as an amazing prognosticator when it comes to pass.

Nahhhh, on second thought, not much challenge to it.

Ny the way RJ, your 10,000 DOW call was spot on, because you didn't give a TIME for it to occur! ( And it surely will occur eventually you clever devil! )

LGB

I do...just this once. For certain. September 22.

What is really important to our cause now is that gold begins to rally enough to make the shorts very uncomfortable... The average investor must recognise the risk in bonds and the tremendous safety in gold.. Japan has been very quiet of late and it is my opinion that they are about to launch an all out assault against the usd. Part of this assault will involve open market purchases of Gold which will spook the Dow to much lower levels immediately... Any producer who is caught selling gold here should be shot on the spot... Timing is of the essence and it is time for Gold to take its rightful place at the head of the currency class!

in, and ask all those guys ( miners ) banging their hats cause they haven't gotten paid in 6-8 months how come Yeltsin and them other boys look so fat and happy while they toil and get scraps...UH HUH!!!

elevation=sea level. I believe it's sink or swim time, pard. Let's get it on, baby. salud y G&P a USTED!!!! metal testing time. war paint. rumble. she's goin' a blow!

The SnP Stop is at 950, if it gets hit early in the evening I'd be willing to jump right back in again. If the market moves up 5 or 10 points I'll try and sneak the stops up to break even. If the breakeven stop gets hit I'd be even more willing to jump back in again. I guess you're asking why use any stops at all. The answer is so I don't get crushed on days like today. The 5 hour rsi is at about 0%. There is going to be at least a bounce.

Gold - Long the Dec Gold contract from 277.

Silver - Will give Dec silver another try at 4.62 stop 4.55.

monday a massacre....

tuesday a repeat.........

wednesday a sigh.............

thursday a cry...................

friday a scream.........................war no longer a reticent dream...

who has provisio to weather the coming storms of life...russia is fixing to be taken 'back'[sic] by the communists via zhirinovski..this
ultra-hitler-nationalist will immediately set fire to the world........

the circle--cycle---of life....ups and downs....life and death....

look at the earth....more peopleo than at any other time in recorded history....un-precedented growth in all peopleo endeavours..........

what does the other side of this cycle portend? who will beat the curve
and provide the gene pool for the next herd of peopleo??? who will witness the changing of the guard? who will be one of the 110 million
per year slaughtered in order to meet jacques costeaus' vision for the future?

who is going to TAKE CARE of you and yours...look at the run on the russian banks....food will disappear next...mass-psychology dictates
absolute animalistic behaviour.....who is an ant.....and who hops
above the hedge?

cherokee!;.scaling.the.walls.of.the.cave.way.below.the.roots.of.the.hedge

Things sure do change quick. Nice to see a little fear and terror out there in the streets. I still think it's about time for that rally. Given people are finally scared, maybe it'll be this week, or soon, anyone care to take a guess ?

What happens on the 22nd?

Tom

OK - crash on Sept 14th ( or week of ) ; what's the 22nd?

is saying that "deflation is the unifying force behind these declines."
I read your summary of the Elliott Wave Theorist and it matches what he
says in the short term update. I can understand his predictions for the
Stock Market, Bonds, the U.S. Dollar, but I don't understand the low
projections for Gold and Silver. He says they'll have their day, but says
they will 1st drop significantly ( like 180.00 for Gold ) . I guess I'm just
stubborn. If people start panicking real soon out of the stock market,
wouldn't they, as well as the Wall Street boys, start moving their funds
to Precious Metals? What someone said a few days ago, makes since to me.
I think it was trader_vic that said that we ARE at Gold's low per the
Elliott Wave, if we look at the U.S. dollar priced value of Gold, in
inflationary terms. Doesn't this sound plausable? Foxman

this is unfolding right in front of our eyes.

On this "Black Monday"...which seems to bring glee and joy into the rather sick hearts of a few sad individuals.... who apparently were filled with envy for years at the gains being made by market bulls...... I have just one question.

Where is the big jump in Gold you expected?

It didn't happen when we had the worst economic crises in decades in Southeast Asia, Japan, Latin America, Russia. It ain't happening as our own equity market tanks.

As in 1929, the U.S. dollar is King in deflationary downturns. Those who are greeting worldwide recession with unabashed glee, are a rather sick group in my opinion...and also dead wrong about what will propel their Gold holdings higher.

LGB

What's the scoop on this 9/22?

countries that are getting hammered and not even being given a chance, it is UN-American, ( YO! Koffi, catch my drift, but you have your hand out for billions all the time, NAH! you don't get it ) but STUDIO_R, it pisses me off to no end, Clintler and Beltsembacksin are working together to solve this...horsepucky...uh huh...and lest we forget that great economic metal midget Camdesuss ( by the way fouledmydoguss, my dog had a video camera that night, I WANT that doctor bill paid pal ) ...yeah, these clowns are in charge...ah,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,...NOT!!!

Hope your well.

Tom

Yep. My point being...What does it really mean when someone like the Pope calls you a rascal? I mean, THAT could run the spectrum from a practical joker to the worst of the worst.

But, when the snake's own belly calls you low...man, that is DOWN THERE! Really puts it in perspective to view the point of reference of the source. We should all thank Zhirinovsky for the wake up call, but then again, I don't think too many of us here were sleeping. ; )

cherOkee asks: who is going to TAKE CARE of you and yours?
Listen up. You will clinch the gold tightly in your fist and thank your God who put it there.

Thank you Realistic, for reminding us of yet ANOTHER failed prediction from a well known cult figure who no longer resides here on this forum.

As I recall, any dip below $280 would bring on this onslaught of buying eh? For "all to see". I think the only "open purcahses" we'll be seeing in the next few weeks, will be in U.S. Treasury's!

The activity in Russia certainly doesn't bode well for the Euro's debut either, now does it?

LGB

In 1978 he predicted the dow top at 3660. To look at that 200 level and become fixated on it at this point would preclude a lot of people getting on board waiting for the last drop to buy. REMEMBER......... the market wants to start up with as few on board as possible. The wave count doesn't have to end at 200$, it could have just ended. IMHO.

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
August 31, 1998
6:48PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
276.90
277.40
+1.60
+0.58%

Kutyn says:

" Moreover, in lieu of the fact
demand far exceeds mine supply, there is no identifiable
source of repayment for these loans."

" It is quite likely that very few
of these gold loans will ever be repaid."


Mr. Vronsky: Does it seem logical that these banks
would risk the loss of this so-called loan, particularly
at such low interest rates, as Mr. Kutyn suggests?

It's my understanding that banks lend gold to bonafide
customers where they can be assured of repayment..ie. the
gold mining companies?

What could possibly be the advantage of loaning gold to
short-sellers or the like, at 1 - 2 % interest, who will
not ever be able to repay the loan when gold spikes upward?

Would banks really want to risk this much, just to bring
down the price of gold???

I would really appreciate any comments.

Thanks

Prechter uses ( in his book AT THE CREST OF THE TIDAL WAVE ) a target for the ultimate gold price, falling to the area of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. This is a standard of Elliott's rules and guidelines of wave forms.

Wave 4 of lesser degree had a peak of $197.50, and a low of $103.05. In the book he presents a number of scenarios within this range to fulfill various target points.

Yesterdays Post:

Silverbear ( Black Monday ) ID#290408:
Copyright  1998 Silverbear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

This is my "gut" feeling for the coming week.

1. DOW drops 600 points.
2. Massive riots erupt in Russia.
3. Yeltzin will be "gone" by this time next week. Most likely sucessor?
Alexander "Leadhead" Lebed.
4. Russian troops "crack down" on riots. 1000's killed.

These are truly turbulent times we live in today, in many different ways. Was today's fall the final plunge before a slow and steady recovery? ...or was it the beginning of the end? ...or will there be a SUDDEN jump in stock value as the sheep perceive this as another "buying" opportunity to increase their stock holdings?

Meanwhile, what will happen to the value of gold stocks? Have they bottomed yet? If so, will they remain low, or will they surge? Unfortunately for me, it may be too late even if there is a surge, unless it happens quickly AND is dramatic. I'm now being forced to gradually liquidate my gold stock holdings at what will quite likely be considered THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF THE CENTURY!!! So, loss is compounded on top of loss, and injury is added to both insult and injury. The f**king bastard shorts have won. I'm another financial casualty of their greed. Only a financial miracle can save me now.

Any of you who are in my shoes truly have my empathy. I will continue to lurk on this site, and will probably keep track of where my gold stocks COULD have been had I not been forced to sell them. My sadness and grief is beyond my ability to express... What a waste of money, emotion and effort these last few years have been. I rue the day that I ever subscribed to any of the PM newsletters, no exceptions. Logically speaking, I should NOT keep track of where my gold stocks would go and grow ( unless I'm able to keep them ) ; but no doubt curiosity will get the best of me. Hopefully that will be the LAST of my losses for one life. Frankly, I've suffered enough losses this life to last for several lifetimes. I'm middle-aged, deep in debt, without a retirement account, and broke...except for virtually worthless gold stocks that were purchased at much higher values.

If I sometimes get a little cynicle or sarcastic, please forgive me. I'm still trying to stop the financial bleeding, and bandages seem far from available. Let's empathasize with those who have lost their shirts on Wall Street today...I've been there, done that.

if you were confident that it wasn't going to keep plummeting to,
say, 920. You'd be giving up your gains if you keep buying, getting
stopped out at a lower price, buying again, getting stopped out
again, etc.//Thanks again for your response. I think many of us
watch your moves pretty closely. Of course, we all realize that
the decisions we make, are our own responsibility. We should
never blame any bad trades on a fellow poster! But you've made good
calls that I'm aware of. Thanks, Foxman

Dow falls 500 points........... and gold goes up $1.


Wow, ultimate safe haven..

Writing's on the wall.

Live Long and Prosper.

There is no equity. It is a concept lost in time.

Full panic of the despairing-never-gonna-go-up-again type will washover the uncleansed sheeple around Sept. 17...but what the heck goes down ( or up ) on Sept. 22.?
Aragon surely this isn't an astrological prediction?

How about a euro announcement?
Euro partial birth abortion?...now that would be good for gold.

Or solid gold backing or euro "in light" of recent market instabilities?

A friend of mine went into a coin dealer today to buy gold coins...and they had NONE! He then asked for platinum coins...and they had NONE! Not any American Eagles, no Maple Leafs, no 1oz, no 1/2oz, no 1/10oz, no nothing...not of any denomination in any country's coinage.

He then asked where he could go to get some, and they told him that ALL the coin dealers in the whole city were out of both gold and platinum coins. He said that he asked how this was possible when everyone was allegedly selling gold. The coin dealer told him, "Everyone's BUYING at these prices. No one wants to sell now, because of Y2K, the falling dow, and world turmoil." The dealer told him that he could get on a WAITING LIST to backorder either gold or platinum coins...and that it might take several weeks to get them. And yes, they would be sold at the market price at the time of delivery, and not at today's prices.

It makes you stop and think, doesn't it? I wish I had stocked up gradually on gold coins over the last few years.

--Skip

"Thank you Realistic, for reminding us of yet ANOTHER failed prediction from a well known cult figure who no longer resides here on this forum."

ANOTHER no longer resides here of his own accord. Unlike you, who was thrown off ( in part ) for chasing him away. Thanks for reminding us of that.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanenetly high plateau"

( Irving Fisher, Prof. of Economics, Yale university, 1929 )

"We don't like their sound and guiter music is on the way out"

( Decca recording, rejecting the Beatles as recording artists, 1962 )

"640K ought to be enough memory for anyone"
( Bill Gates, 1981 )

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
( Ken Olsen, president and chairman, Digital Equipment, 1977 )

"I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers"
( Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1943 )

"Computers in the future will get down to a weight of 1.5 tons"
( Popular Mechanics, 1949 )

"Everything that can be invented, has been invented"
( Charles Duell, commisioner U.S. patent office, 1889 )

"But what is it good for?"
( Engineering manager, IBM, commenting on the invention of the microchip, 1968 )

"This telephone invention has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. This device is inherently of no value"
( U.S. Western Union memo, 1876 )

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
( H.M. Warner , Warner Brothers, 1927 )


"Kitco will become a place where good economic news is greeted with enthusiasm"
( LGB, 8/31/98 )

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanenetly high plateau"

( Irving Fisher, Prof. of Economics, Yale university, 1929 )

"We don't like their sound and guiter music is on the way out"

( Decca recording, rejecting the Beatles as recording artists, 1962 )

"640K ought to be enough memory for anyone"
( Bill Gates, 1981 )

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home"
( Ken Olsen, president and chairman, Digital Equipment, 1977 )

"I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers"
( Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1943 )

"Computers in the future will get down to a weight of 1.5 tons"
( Popular Mechanics, 1949 )

"Everything that can be invented, has been invented"
( Charles Duell, commisioner U.S. patent office, 1889 )

"But what is it good for?"
( Engineering manager, IBM, commenting on the invention of the microchip, 1968 )

"This telephone invention has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. This device is inherently of no value"
( U.S. Western Union memo, 1876 )

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
( H.M. Warner , Warner Brothers, 1927 )


"Kitco will become a place where good economic news is greeted with enthusiasm"
( LGB, 8/31/98 )

Me post this morning was in jest surely you know. Please no offense taken. When you write, I read closely. Your posts got me out of stocks 2 months ago... I watched as they continued to climb... but as of today... I sold high.

May I politely suggest that this very site ( Kitco ) has a link at te bottom where they'll be more than happy to sell you all the Gold coins you want.

Then there's RJ at Monex, F.J Vollmer, and anyone of ohhhh say a few hundred others who would love to sell you Gold coins at the current going rate of spot + the normal coinage premium, ( which varies by coin type ) .

LGB

http://www.stocksite.com

http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

Someone once posted:
"As in 1929, the U.S. dollar is King in deflationary downturns."

I hasten to remind that in 1929 the U.S. dollar was "good as gold". To say in that round-about manner that "gold is King" will elicit no argument from me.

Further, it was posted:
"Those who are greeting worldwide recession with unabashed glee, are a rather sick group in my opinion...and also dead wrong about what will propel their Gold holdings higher."

Is it, perhaps, that the witness does not know the nature of the event? Who among our group assembled have specifically rejoiced with "unabashed glee" for the reason of "worldwide recession"?
The contentment that one may find in abundance at this gathering place is over the methodical, yet wayward, unrelenting worldwide dismantling of the "killing machine". The angry mob you may see, and the severed limbs and bodies, they are the direct result of the machine's past operations. Do not confuse the cheers.

I can confirm your comments. I also went into a smaller dealer 2 weeks ago and he had no Gold, and couldn't get any ( smaller quanties ) .
He just had a client with $3000. cash and couln't sell him any Gold.
All the small guys are seem to be shut out........
It's a very strange market.
I know that KITCO can order Gold and is very reliable though.
Smaller bars are harder to get.

or something.

lgbito---....predictions...everyone has one

i predict sgub will solicitiously get the frog slapped-out-of-them
here at kitco on a regular basis.. by gar...

cherokeesan!;...mr.chop-asaki....ah.so......ichibansan.....sandan.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin0r.htm

some bubble...1000 rounds.

mail me at tolerant1@msn.com

Lou_Jan ( Vronsky - Re Kutyn report on gold-leasing )

The best explanation of this topic is done by the brilliant reports of
Ted Butler. His detailed and well-documented treatises may be found
at the following website.

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in word "golden" before posting the URL location to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/butlerndx.html

The Great Russians must gather up the international fiat-brokering, slave-making, blood-sucking banking bastards and send them the way of the romanovs. And Camdessus will deservedly rest at the bottom of this pile of stench.

I don't for a minute think anyone here is happy that folks are losing their savings.
Not for a minute.

What you see is relief and excitement at being RIGHT!
Calling for a move in the markets, and pegging it!
Finally! ( For me, anyway. )

That's all.

Oh, ok, we're a little excited that Ms. Cohen et al is eating a heaping mound of CROW.
But that's the extent of the negativity. It goes no further.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

( By the way, I know I wasn't the only one that noticed metals holding up while equities began the crash... Decoupled? YES! )

She will be happy to sell you all the stock your little portfolio can hold, and maybe a little margined stuff to top it off. BUY BUY BUY

shirt? what shirt? just roadkill.

Actually, I have little or no interest in debating with the cult fanatics of that particular diety, as the seem so blinded by their "faith" in that totally discredited figure...... however, you might note that even the venerable "Old Gold".... along and repected member of the Kitco fraternity, finally ventured his opinion that the cult leader in question has no credibility, now that we've seen the results of the worldwide partial "meltdown".... and none of it has backed the claims of said cult figure whatsoever.

Of course the site progonsticator with the best record on Gold calls, RJ, has also expose that particular cult figure on many ocassions as well....

But then, these are indeed "Crazy times" and we are all entitled to our opinions. SOme folks like to be followers, even when their led down the most treacherous path.... and that's OK.

Freedom is a great thing, oh yes.

LGB

Your 19:19 was beautifully stated. The thought was similar in my mind, but I could never have formed it into such eloquence.

BUY BUY BUY

Have an election to fight.

Vote 1.
Australian Labor Party.

Live Long and Prosper.

here is the benchmark s&p....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha51.gif

looking very healthy....the buy-on-the-dips-for-lunch-bunch
must be foaming at the wallet....

We don't have to beg and cry to God for his mercy. He is offering it freely to us. He is offering us a total pardon for out sins. All we have to do is acknowledge that we need it and that we can't do anything on our own to merit it, and we have to accept it by faith.
It says in the book of Revelation that Jesus is knocking at the door or our hearts and WE must OPEN the door and invite him in. He wants to forgive us but we must relinquish all of our own efforts to merit salvation and accept his pardon which he purchased with his own blood on the cross.
The events which are happening right now ( in our lifetime ) have been foretold in the Bible. There is no stopping them. We can only escape them by asking Jesus to forgive us and accepting the pardon which he is offering. Read the Book. Believe. Tell others. The time is short.

Alright Godbugs. Consider this assignment. You have held back $1 million dollars. How would each of you invest or not this money over the next days....weeks!

Let's just say that yours will be the most accurate prediction of the 98 season! However, those of us who like to view life from all sides will continue to talk about...Oh....forget it!

LGB

without a doubt....heee.heeee.heeeee
the bis is buying in the open!!!!!

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha22.gif

i see it grasshopper....i'm buying undercover....heeee.heeeeee.heeeee...

There is an erie silence emanating from the federal reserve
and the treasury dept it is my view that the should have
tried long ago to curb the rampant speculation that has been
going on the equities markets -a lot of people are going to
be hurt badly as a result of there inaction - they seem to
be suffering from some sort of paralysis

as for my self I bought more gold shares on todays close -
have no idea if I made the right decision or not - acting
only on my intuition - I know one thing that I will find
out very shortly - cjk -

I don't know the workings of these loans, but it is my suspiscion that the Central banks are trying to get the gold out of the warehouse before the fire so to speak. They are transfering the gold out of the Central Banks into friendly hands so that when the currencies collapse, the people won't be able to ask the Central Bank to defend the currency with gold, because the gold will have been gone.

Sounds like something in the bible....Russia, bear market, Ursa Major,?...Hmmm all these conjunctions is worrisome.

Now what would a nut case in Russia have to gain by offing Clinton?

LGB,

You sound like a man who is hurting. I do have a compassion for you, I've lost a bunch of money this year ( however not lately as I've been into cash for some time ) . However, it's still fresh in my memory how you used to sprinkle salt into wounds of bleeding goldbugs and kept talking about all the money you are making in the greatest bull equity market in the history.

Please, you would be the last one I need to hear from at this moment talking about "sick minds" and decency.

the almighty us$..

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha66.gif

buy low.....sell high.......

Dec. Gold up $1.80, just traded @$280.7...Silver up $5.70...interesting to note most of the selloff today was after the Gold market closed!!

I must admit I do enjoy ( with much glee ) watching our world paper markets burn i.e.: Fiat currency, Bonds, Stocks, Derivities, etc. I have made the gamble of a lifetime in GOLD BULLION COINS and know that my investment will be proven correct within the next 18 months. Furtermore, Puetz is my friend and mentor and we will be exonerated from the verbal abuse that spews from non-goldbugs mouths. I too have been ridiculed from friends and family for my investment advice and only now do they see the right path to follow. You see, a goldbug is more than phrase it is a BELIEF! What do you believe in?

But your 19:19 certainly is a rather flattering way to view the motives of say, the posts of a GOLDEN CHEESHEAD. HOWEVER SAID MOTIVES CERTAINLY ARE UNAPPARENT IN HIS, AND MANY SIMILAR TYPES OF POSTS HERE EH?

Real Skeptical,

LGB

Dec. Gold up $1.80, just traded @$280.7...Silver up 570...interesting to note most of the selloff today was after the Gold market closed!!

Please donot worry why gold has not yet moved nor be bothered explaining to us why the Dow is going to move higher! Abbey and her herd of sore ass sheep should be thankful that gold didnot move today as the Dow would of lost another 500 points had gold jumped $20.00.... I donot get a kick out of a financial meltdown nor to I care to see so many average working people ruined as a result.... But for you twits that keep showing up here with your bull#### stories I can only smile about your lack of business and investment accumen... May your margin calls on the Dow be a life long lesson to you.....

Lurker, I think you confuse verbal abuse with reality check.

Reality check would be to say;

"The DOW is currently up approximately 1000% in 9 years as of the close today, 8/31/98. Meanwhile, Gold in U.S. dollars has dropped to perhaps 20% of it's former purchasing power during that same time frame"

Verbal abuse would be to say;

"HAHAHAHAHAH you sheep, your stocks are tanking, I hope you lose everything, etc etc ad nauseum"

Big difference.

LGB

GOLD had no relationship to the DOW..........

GOLD UP, Dow down......more of it please..........

Dow to drop to 3000 points, sounds good to me.......

Och aye the noooooooooo......

I've been listening to Bob Brinker since the early 90's and he has a good
track record over the last 10 years. Yesterday he was digging for a explanation of the recent market declines calling this a mid term ( presidental ) buying oportunity; still calling for new highs in the market this year. He raved about the fundamentals still being in place and
that the last several weeks fall could be attributed to Russia and had
nothing to do with the US market fundamentals. The longer you are
right about something the more the odds become that you will be wrong.

I hope Brinkers anti -gold stance comes back to bite him on his starship ass. I'm still hurt by his goldbug joke

ANOTHER spoke about dramatic changes in the global monetary system, mostly due to the launch of the EURO and the re-emergence of the importance of Gold. He was reluctant to even give short term forcasts. While there is no argument his few forcasts did not pan out, one would need to wait until after the EURO is launched to determine his credibility. If you feel everyone is entitled to their opinions, then why do you attack so many?

From time to time some posters have supported their long-term gold bearish posture by stating the "renown" market maven Jimmie Rogers is
very negative on the yellow metal. Well let's look at what else the
"guru" Rogers has been passionately touting for some time.

Mr. Rogers has been so unequivocably BULLISH on CNBC about RUSSIA for the last two years, that I often suspected he was a paid LOBBYEST for the Russian Confederation of States... or at least on the board of directors of the CIS.

Well, since the beginning of 1998 the Russian stock market has already lost more than 90% of its value. And the Russian government is in total shambles, teetering on the brink of a return to COMMUNISM... and we all know what that means.

Methinks "Guru" Rogers might have lost his touch... and therefore is WRONG WRONG about GOLD.

I've been listening to Bob Brinker since the early 90's and he has a good
track record over the last 10 years. Yesterday he was digging for a explanation of the recent market declines calling this a mid term ( presidental ) buying oportunity; still calling for new highs in the market this year. He raved about the fundamentals still being in place and
that the last several weeks fall could be attributed to Russia and had
nothing to do with the US market fundamentals. The longer you are
right about something the more the odds become that you will be wrong.

I hope Brinkers anti -gold stance comes back to bite him on his starship ass. I'm still hurt by his goldbug joke

You, my friend, have it straight. The only solace I possess at this juncture, is that I have MADE PREPARATION and ACTED to defend my family from being thrown into the huddled masses of servitude. Yes, I know that we shall not be slaves...my job is done.

I've been listening to Bob Brinker since the early 90's and he has a good
track record over the last 10 years. Yesterday he was digging for a explanation of the recent market declines calling this a mid term ( presidental ) buying oportunity; still calling for new highs in the market this year. He raved about the fundamentals still being in place and
that the last several weeks fall could be attributed to Russia and had
nothing to do with the US market fundamentals. The longer you are
right about something the more the odds become that you will be wrong.

I hope Brinkers anti -gold stance comes back to bite him on his starship ass. I'm still hurt by his goldbug joke

I should qualify my use of stops. When I buy or sell something my goal is to make the trade as close to risk free as possible. That means the stops are very close by most standards. As a result I have had many trades which were stopped out at the high or low of the day or with in a few points. Now what I do is watch the market for a short time and see how it's acting, if it's not carrying though the stop I'll give it another try and place a new stop right above or below the recent high or low. Usually if I don't get it right by the third try I'll give up. I didn't mean to emply you didn't understand stops. In this case I'm pretty confident 950 will hold for a while, but some smart guy may take it a tic or two lower and knock me out. I want to be mentally prepared to jump back in if it still looks good.. If we close under 950 its 900 in no time.

New Zealand
NZSE 40
^NZ40
7:56PM
1735.91
-91.65
-5.01%

HighRise

I have bought some equity puts last Friday, mostly bank sector + Philips. I trade in Amsterdam, so last NY events was not in the basket today. Amsterdam has some small losses today, comparing for example with our east neighbor - Germany. I think, tomorrow Amsterdam will loose 5-6% at the opening, then some junior traders will start looking for bargains, then it will decline again. Probably, equities in a short run will not only decline this week - some retracement is probable on Thursday or Friday: BC visit to Moscow is now all about it now. Propaganda machines of both countries will work at a full power to show "results" and reduce market troubles.

New Zealand already down 4%

This plunge has really brought out the worst in some of the posters here... too bad. Finally, after so many early calls, the market dives and people use it as ammunition to settle old scores. Give me a break. I thought we were in this together. The natures of some here do not impress me.

-c

All:

Seems every time I have posted something the last few days it gets eaten in the vastness of cyberspace. I persevere.

The gold and silver markets were very quiet today. The silver market is perhaps the more interesting of the two in that on Friday we saw one of the large technical trend following funds come in with a fresh load of shorting. These guys have had such a run of misfortune in this market that past performance would dictate that a bottom is most certainly in place. Arguing against a bottom are the bad vibes occuring in the other base metal markets and the lumber market.


The Russians have posted a lot of gold as collateral against dollar loans. Some of these loans have already gone bad and caused liquidation of the underlying collateral. This has been the main force behind the gold declines last week. It is unclear when this action is going to cease. Perhaps it is wisest to hold off on the precious metals markets until the stock market dust settles.

When I made my wager with Sig, I told myself that I would buy the metals the day after I lost the bet if I did. I'm now chickening out because there hasn't been a good positive reaction even in the face of a declining dollar.

The big positive for the metals markets in all this has to be the decline of the dollar. For a real rally in gold and silver to commense, the dollar must decline and the Fed must be seen as the great reliquifier. I think that Greenspan and Rubin would like to get the stock market down even farther than it has already fallen before they administer a large dose of steroids to the patient.

On the currency topic it is interesting to note that the two best acting currencies, the Pound and Yen, are the places which hold the greatest amount of US debt paper. If we are seeing the beginings of a liquidation of dollar denominated assets by foreigners, the excitement has just begun. It would not be surprising to find the Fed stepping to the plate and printing US cash to purchase this load of paper as it comes to market. This would have the combined effect of keeping rates down and pushing massive amounts of dollar liquidity into the system. Just what the doctor ordered.

Sooner or later, some people other than Warren Buffett and the crowd at Kitco, are going to figure out that wealth denominated in paper is just that. The conversion of paper wealth into tangible wealth has a long, long, way to go.

Can someone out there post a phone number or email address of some place where I can get a half ounce coin to send off to Sig. I lost the name of the last place I used to pay off my other wager. Thanks

Somebody help me on this...for each share sold today wasn't one bought?
It's a TRADE right? If I lost a grand where did it go?? Didn't some one else gain it? Hell of a day for both the shorts and the longs..
Sorry about the double post before..

The fiat paper currencies and stock markets are the biggest con-game of this millenium and the sooner it burns back into hell from whence it came the better.
The stock market that "amazing wealth machine" is nothing more than a mechanism for concentrating wealth. It only raises a paltry 10% of business capital but purports to be a mechanism for raising capital...bullsh!t, it's the biggest legal scam going. The sooner people recognise this the less money the will lose. The few morally corrupt bankers and brokers benfitting from the omnipotent "markets" are long gone with the loot.
Only when this inefficent capital distributiuon system grinds totally to a halt and breaths it's last foul breaths can the healing begin. Banks and banking as we know it is doomed, several systems theories have predicted this for decades. Start again, start again.....now what would be good to use as money?.....got gold anybody?

You, my friend, have it straight. The only solace I possess at this juncture, is that I have MADE PREPARATION and ACTED to defend my family from being thrown into the huddled masses of servitude. Yes, I know that we shall not be slaves...for I did my job. I have the key that unlocks their chains....GOLD.

No, Gold turned out allright in the end...it was what foul mist temporarilly floated in the wake of its dreams....

Sell your stocks and buy gold, because you need some security.

I'm aware that people can buy gold through a link on this site. Unfortunately, I'm not in a position to buy. My information came from someone else.

is limited only by the imagination. "Worst possibly-PROBABLE scenario" I can do.

Voters in Montana choose to leave Earth as we found it ( for the inevitable day it joins the Sun in red giant spendour ) by voting for the anti-heap leach referendum in November. ( Unlikely )

Mining at Briggs continues, but with the general attitude of "What's the point." ( Unlikely. Instead, workers will be happy for their employment, unlike thousands laid-off in other sectors nationwide. )

USPostal Service offers to buy all outstanding shares, and with the proper adhesive to the stock certificates, will issue commemorative stamps. ( Unlikely. Would be too large to affix to common envelopes )

General economic slowdown puts a crimp in the industrial minerals business. ( Hmmmmmmm... )

Canyon asks employees to accept gold as fractional payment of salaries. Even as the stock price falls to ZERO, the company must turn away record numbers of job applicants. Strangely, things begin to turn around...

Wasn't 15,000 important bank failure level?...now at 13,700 and falling rather briskly...NZ -5%, Aussie -3.5%.....this is getting to be nasty...but not if you don't own stocks....real goods and rural land will be valued for their full worth once again.

GO GOLDBUGS!!!!! bbl. recording tonite@studio7 fun.

In the first few minutes of trading the LAND OF THE SETTING SUN is tanking. The Nikkei is off more than 400 point already - DOWN 3%.

The view is indeed grim. John Kutyn sees a low of 4000 on the Nikkei.

Americans never cease to amaze me......

The US$ is the focus of fiat currencies, it caused the current problem in the first place......

Clearly, after flooding the financial world with US$, the US Bankning system must at some point be held accountable for the brewing shambles it has caused since 1973......

Or, do Americans turn the other cheek, walk slink away.......

One must always remember that in order to walk properly, "both" cheeks must move in tandem, otherwise you end up with a Monty Python walk....

With the current US$ money supply increasing at a rate of 11 to 13% per annum, and the US inflation running "near zero", clearly the US has not only exported US$ but also their inflation via the markets.......

Cannot last for ever, GOLD does !!!!!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980831/bs/commodities_8.html

Please let me rephrase my last post:

HAHAHAHAHA you sheep, your stocks are tanking, I hope you lose everything!

Please let me rephrase my last post:

HAHAHAHAHA you sheep, your stocks are tanking, I hope you lose everything!

..congrats to this man for having the balls to come out and make his tremendous market call in the face of much hostility from the usual bunch of malicious morons.

I say balls because it takes guts and courage to go with one's convictions in the face of hostile derision from the usual group of one-track idiots, specifically LGibberish, RotJerk, and Realistic Nitwit.

Hey, Realistic Nitwit, where are all your posts ad nauseum describing Puetz's erroneous market calls? What happened? Did you get your butt kicked today?

In the face of Puetz' tremendous call, these guys still have the audacity to come onto this forum and denigrate the man.

Hey, Run for cover, kids.

And just remember who called this one kids?

Congrats again, Puetz.

You're Da Man.

Indeedy. Thingie. Fumpy. Scoobeedoobeedoobee.

Thanks.

F*

..congrats to this man for having the balls to come out and make his tremendous bear market call in the face of much hostility from the usual bunch of malicious morons.

I say balls because it takes guts and courage to go with one's convictions in the face of hostile derision from the usual group of one-track idiots, specifically LGibberish, RotJerk, and Realistic Nitwit.

Hey, Realistic Nitwit, where are all your posts ad nauseum describing Puetz's erroneous market calls? What happened? Did you get your butt kicked today?

In the face of Puetz' tremendous call, these guys still have the audacity to come onto this forum and denigrate the man.

Hey, Run for cover, kids.

And just remember who called this one kids?

Congrats again, Puetz.

You're Da Man.

Indeedy. Thingie. Fumpy. Scoobeedoobeedoobee.

Thanks.

F*

How about a stock market-neutral, gold-neutral gold mining equity position?

Long: $500,000 DROOY
Short: $500,000 NEM ( will probably go down with the S&P 500 in a crash ) Invest the proceeds from the short sale + $500,000 in US Treasuries

Stock market crash: DROOY looks stable, was in fact up 1/16 today. NEM very vulnerable

Gold down: DROOY profits hedged by the dropping Rand and some hedged forward sales; NEM unhedged.

Gold up: Both are highly leveraged, but DROOY moreso than NEM

Just an idea - not investment advice. Would this be a good plan?

I also had a scarce gold bullion experience today. In Fort Worth Tx, I was able to find one dealer with bullion in stock. Noone has Phillies.
As far as "glee" at the crash of equities, I have no sympathy for the masses that have expected an easy buck from their mutual funds while they sat on their asses and watched tv. I on the other hand have researched ( through countless hours of reading kitco and others ) and have protected myself from the equities crash and perhaps positioned myself to make a little profit. I in no way will cause the economic upheaval to come, but if I profit from it, how is that at all different from equity bulls profiting in a system that BEARS gold?
They ( equity folks ) had exactly the same opportunity to exit their market that I did, Kitco has been equally available to them, they had the same light shining at them to see that I did. Why did they not follow my path? Laziness and greed.
The same thing will happen with Y2K. The financial collapse we are witnessing is just a hor derve to the main course called Y2K.
You at Kitco are my brothers.
Gold will prevail!
gb

How about a stock market-neutral, gold-neutral gold mining equity position?

Long: $500,000 DROOY
Short: $500,000 NEM ( will probably go down with the S&P 500 in a crash ) Invest the proceeds from the short sale + $500,000 in US Treasuries

Stock market crash: DROOY looks stable, was in fact up 1/16 today. NEM very vulnerable

Gold down: DROOY profits hedged by the dropping Rand and some hedged forward sales; NEM unhedged.

Gold up: Both are highly leveraged, but DROOY moreso than NEM

Just an idea - not investment advice. Would this be a good plan?

Let us both recognize that not all are in the same basket, some cheering the team, others the teamwork, others the conquest, and others still...the end of the game. The next "game" is a better one, and the team is considerably larger...with no known opponents.

Mankind vs. all comers...
An undefeated season awaits.

got tickets?

as we speak. The shorter target of 1.618 x wave 1 would be 1678 points and would begin at either Dow 8750 or 8710. This means that we should at least go to the 7070 to 7030 area.
If this area is broken, and it looks to me like it may be, then look for it to go at least 2.618 x wave 1 or 2714 points, or the 6035 area. This looks like the more probable wave 3 completion level due to the still disbelief on the part of most people.
Once that is done and we have wave 4 then the 5th, the ( 1st ) wave of a 5 Wave decline will be done, Thats right I said the 1st wave will be done.
When that is complete take that decline ( point total ) x .618 and this is a good area for the wave 2 retracement. All the bulls will be back out extolling the cheapness of stocks, and a lot of shepple ....I mean people will be sucked back in, just in time for the air to be let out of the bag.

After those stinging losses, NYSE floor traders were reluctant to speak to the press on the record. But gallows humor was overheard among exhausted traders exiting the NYSE.

One advised a colleague to, ``Walk close to the building on your way out,'' which drew the explanation: ``When people jump out of windows, they tend to float away from the building.''

Or so the financial media would like us all to believe.........

I wonder what "Young" Bill is going to say/do for "Old" Boris.......

It makes you wonder, who/what is "holding" up the rest of the Russsian financial system, and when it "must" fold, and the GOLD be handed over ?!

Imagine, if you were an "average" Russian worker, and YOU had not been paid for 6 months..........what would YOU do ?

as we speak. The shorter target of 1.618 x wave 1 would be 1678 points and would begin at either Dow 8750 or 8710. This means that we should at least go to the 7070 to 7030 area.
If this area is broken, and it looks to me like it may be, then look for it to go at least 2.618 x wave 1 or 2714 points, or the 6035 area. This looks like the more probable wave 3 completion level due to the still disbelief on the part of most people.
Once that is done and we have wave 4 then the 5th, the ( 1st ) wave of a 5 Wave decline will be done, Thats right I said the 1st wave will be done.
When that is complete take that decline ( point total ) x .618 and this is a good area for the wave 2 retracement. All the bulls will be back out extolling the cheapness of stocks, and a lot of shepple ....I mean people will be sucked back in, just in time for the air to be let out of the bag.

as we speak. The shorter target of 1.618 x wave 1 would be 1678 points and would begin at either Dow 8750 or 8710. This means that we should at least go to the 7070 to 7030 area.
If this area is broken, and it looks to me like it may be, then look for it to go at least 2.618 x wave 1 or 2714 points, or the 6035 area. This looks like the more probable wave 3 completion level due to the still disbelief on the part of most people.
Once that is done and we have wave 4 then the 5th, the ( 1st ) wave of a 5 Wave decline will be done, Thats right I said the 1st wave will be done.
When that is complete take that decline ( point total ) x .618 and this is a good area for the wave 2 retracement. All the bulls will be back out extolling the cheapness of stocks, and a lot of shepple ....I mean people will be sucked back in, just in time for the air to be let out of the bag.

as we speak. The shorter target of 1.618 x wave 1 would be 1678 points and would begin at either Dow 8750 or 8710. This means that we should at least go to the 7070 to 7030 area.
If this area is broken, and it looks to me like it may be, then look for it to go at least 2.618 x wave 1 or 2714 points, or the 6035 area. This looks like the more probable wave 3 completion level due to the still disbelief on the part of most people.
Once that is done and we have wave 4 then the 5th, the ( 1st ) wave of a 5 Wave decline will be done, Thats right I said the 1st wave will be done.
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu
When that is complete take that decline ( point total ) x .618 and this is a good area for the wave 2 retracement. All the bulls will be back out extolling the cheapness of stocks, and a lot of shepple ....I mean people will be sucked back in, just in time for the air to be let out of the bag.

I for one rarely post here, but lurk and enjoy the education while getting creamed with my gold mining stocks....
I have copied many of Mr. Another's posts and would like to share one PREDICTION he made on March 7, 1998 @6:32pm

"It is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break ABOVE $360 to create an all out run to infinity, BEFORE YEAR END. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade."

I for one do not scorn the man, he did bring with him a great story and roaring debate. After all, that's what this forum is all about!

And the jury is still out until year end.

Save gold, from being crunched by the NWO. They are going for
maximum warp speed now. Full control of the planet is almost
theirs. Will the machine overheat, will the 2nd law of thermodynamics
take full control. Cyclone Chaos has hit and is taking no prisoners.
Typhoon Flux backstage is f-cking with your brains. Breath in before breathing out.
Take care attempting to save the earth. Some bastards have big toes.

as we speak. The shorter target of 1.618 x wave 1 would be 1678 points and would begin at either Dow 8750 or 8710. This means that we should at least go to the 7070 to 7030 area.
If this area is broken, and it looks to me like it may be, then look for it to go at least 2.618 x wave 1 or 2714 points, or the 6035 area. This looks like the more probable wave 3 completion level due to the still disbelief on the part of most people.
Once that is done and we have wave 4 then the 5th, the ( 1st ) wave of a 5 Wave decline will be done, Thats right I said the 1st wave will be done.
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu
When that is complete take that decline ( point total ) x .618 and this is a good area for the wave 2 retracement. All the bulls will be back out extolling the cheapness of stocks, and a lot of shepple ....I mean people will be sucked back in, just in time for the air to be let out of the bag.

I for one rarely post here, but lurk and enjoy the education while getting creamed with my gold mining stocks....
I have copied many of Mr. Another's posts and would like to share one PREDICTION he made on March 7, 1998 @6:32pm

"It is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break ABOVE $360 to create an all out run to infinity, BEFORE YEAR END. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade."

I for one do not scorn the man, he did bring with him a great story and roaring debate. After all, that's what this forum is all about!

And the jury is still out until year end.

Hmmmm?I guess gold will be bought up ( maybe ) at these low prices and stored until there is none left, that is; moving. Then the producing countries will have their kick at the can. I need some sign that the gold producing companies are being soughht by investors. There isn't any yet ? Right?

More Blood and body parts scattered about!!

Quoting a post from Tonight:
"Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 18:27
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( NBC TALKING HEADS SAY GET OUT NOW!!!! )
ID#372262:
WHY? THE BIG BOYS ARE ALREADY OUT AND SHORT!!!! BASTARDS!! "

This morning's post: ( mine )

It was not in the interests of "those who create great wealth for themselves" for AG/RR/WJK ( and the other world figureheads ) to act until they were properly positioned.
Someone else ( olreman I think ) said "POSITION IS EVERYTHING". This is because TIMING DEPENDS ON POSITION. Do you not see that the collapses around the globe resulted in creation of wealth for the FEW at the expense and suffering of many?

My morning call at 8:00 am:

"Markets: Short term rally starting today with gold participating".

...Well, It went up 40 points to start with didn't it??? Gold didn't participate on the downside too much, did it? Hey, we can't be right on all the time, can we?
At least I'm hedged, even though I didn't get to add to my RYURX and BEARX yet, I still just might get to.

I got another 1500 shares of Kinross ( I am accumulating in spite of the Russian factor ) at 1 3/4; so GO GOLD! KGC today: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=KGC&d=1d

Here is list if some other Miners today:
http://quote.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_3

Thanks to Kitcoland for my continueing education and "keepin me straight!"

With rates having been quite steady this year and with even a possible drop very soon, can you give us more details about your forecasted massive inflationnary trend for this year?

Thanks in advance.

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 23:53
ANOTHER ( Thoughts ) ID#256321:
Part 1
As the turn of events occurs a massive inflationary
depression will take hold. The United States will
be forced to raise rates multiple basis points to
keep a lid on inflation. This will tilt the world
into a massive liquidation of all assets and
a final collapse of the world financial system.
The president will then have to speak to the
American people and the world informing us
the worlds financial system is bankrupt.

Regarding Economics 101. I would take the million dollars and short gold to 200-210. At that point in time I would go long and let the bull ride.

All: I must admit I did not expect this. This looks like the US markets are now approaching the current volatility of other markets all over the world. And -- today's behavior was presumably due mostly to the professionals, not the average investor. Frightening thought -- what would happen if the 'average investor' panicked too!
I will not guess what will happen tomorrow -- a short covering rally? Or more of the same? Regardless, our market bubble is letting alot of air out, and the PPT seems either unable or unwilling to prop it up.

All: Please - lets not gloat about what is happening. I can assure you all, that if we go to DOW 7000 -- and it keeps dropping, none of you will be happy with the outcome -- winner or loser. As I have said many times before, I would be very happy to lose on my gold-related investments, if I could be assured that the markets would not crash, and the average occupant of all 'fiat' currency countries methodically started paying off all of their debt. Until that debt is paid off, the US markets will eventually crash -- the only questions is when.
You can rest assured that AG will be forced to lower short term rates fairly soon ( months or less ) to prevent a coming recession into a depression. If we have inflation in the US, it will be externally generated by a drop in the US dollar.

Did you all notice that many of the Democratic party candidates are now saying that they do not want WJC to campaign for them? That is highly significant --for if WJC's fortunes are fading -- so are the US markets. And Clinton going to Russia is reminiscent of Nixon going to China. RMNixon tended to focus on foreign affairs when things got tough at home. Like WJC, also? But there is one big differenc between WJC and RMN -- Nixon excelled in foreign affairs.
My guess is that the US market bull will not resume until WJC resigns. And -- if WJC does not resign very soon, the Democrats risk big losses in November. Y2k problems will also begin to materialize fairly soon, preventing any serious market rallies until after y2k. Not good for the market bulls.
On gold equities -- keep your powder dry! I do not know if the Oldman is right about gold going well below 280/oz, but there is no harm done in waiting for the US markets to stabilize, and for commodity prices to bottom.

All: I must admit I did not expect this. This looks like the US markets are now approaching the current volatility of other markets all over the world. And -- today's behavior was presumably due mostly to the professionals, not the average investor. Frightening thought -- what would happen if the 'average investor' panicked too!
I will not guess what will happen tomorrow -- a short covering rally? Or more of the same? Regardless, our market bubble is letting alot of air out, and the PPT seems either unable or unwilling to prop it up.

All: Please - lets not gloat about what is happening. I can assure you all, that if we go to DOW 7000 -- and it keeps dropping, none of you will be happy with the outcome -- winner or loser. As I have said many times before, I would be very happy to lose on my gold-related investments, if I could be assured that the markets would not crash, and the average occupant of all 'fiat' currency countries methodically started paying off all of their debt. Until that debt is paid off, the US markets will eventually crash -- the only questions is when.
You can rest assured that AG will be forced to lower short term rates fairly soon ( months or less ) to prevent a coming recession into a depression. If we have inflation in the US, it will be externally generated by a drop in the US dollar.

Did you all notice that many of the Democratic party candidates are now saying that they do not want WJC to campaign for them? That is highly significant --for if WJC's fortunes are fading -- so are the US markets. And Clinton going to Russia is reminiscent of Nixon going to China. RMNixon tended to focus on foreign affairs when things got tough at home. Like WJC, also? But there is one big differenc between WJC and RMN -- Nixon excelled in foreign affairs.
My guess is that the US market bull will not resume until WJC resigns. And -- if WJC does not resign very soon, the Democrats risk big losses in November. Y2k problems will also begin to materialize fairly soon, preventing any serious market rallies until after y2k. Not good for the market bulls.
On gold equities -- keep your powder dry! I do not know if the Oldman is right about gold going well below 280/oz, but there is no harm done in waiting for the US markets to stabilize, and for commodity prices to bottom.

You said, "It makes you wonder, who/what is "holding" up the rest of the Russsian financial system, and when it "must" fold, and the GOLD be handed over?!"

From "Czarism and Revolution" by A. Goulevitch -
"Mr. Bakhmetiev, the late Russian Imperial Ambassador to the United States, tells us that the Bolsheviks, after victory, transferred 600 million rubles in gold between the years 1918 and 1922, to Kuhn, Loeb, and Company," a New York firm.

Travelers' Smith Barney posts $360 mln trading loss

NEW YORK, ( Reuters ) - Travelers Group Inc.'s brokerage arm, Salomon Smith Barney, Monday became the latest firm to report losses due to global stock and debt market turmoil, after a string of U.S. banks disclosed trading losses last week.
 Salomon Smith Barney said its arbitrage business and Russian credit losses totaled $360 million in July and August because of "extreme volatility" in global markets. The losses caused the firm to report an overall $150 million net loss in the period, because it partly offset the losses by gains of about $210 million from its private client, asset management and investment banking businesses, a spokeswoman said.
 Salomon Smith Barney's disclosure of the losses followed similar announcements by U.S. banks, such as BankAmerica Corp. , BankBoston Corp. and Republic New York Corp. , last week. The disclosure raises questions about potential losses other Wall Street houses may have had in emerging markets, which have plummeted in the wake of Asia's, and more recently, Russia's financial crises.
 "I wouldn't be surprised if this announcement created some uncertainty surrounding the other firms," said analyst Michael Flanagan of Financial Service Analytics. "But I doubt we'll see losses of this magnitude at the other publicly traded firms.
 Flanagan pointed out that Salomon Smith Barney still has one of the biggest proprietary trading desks in the industry, despite reducing the risks it takes on when it trades for its own account.
 "Salomon experienced similar losses when the fixed income market turned in 1994," Flanagan said. Other firms, such as Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. are unlikely to report big losses because they do not trade as much for their own account, he added.
 Salomon Smith Barney, which was formed when financial services group Travelers acquired bond trading power house Salomon Brothers last year, said that Russia-related credit losses were $60 million in the period; its U.S. bond arbitrage operations lost $120 million and its overseas arbitrage $180 million. It added it had taken "a conservative position with respect to its remaining Russian exposure."
 Travelers inherited the arbitrage business, which aims to exploit momentary disparities in securities' prices between markets, from Salomon. The company in July said it would pull the plug on Salomon's U.S. bond arbitrage group because markets were more efficient than in the past and because it disliked the wild swings in profits -- and losses -- the unit produced.
 The firm said in the statement it did not expect further material losses from its U.S. fixed income arbitrage unit. It also said it "continues to substantially reduce the risk being borne by its continuing global arbitrage business."
 The losses will not imperil Travelers pending merger with No. 2 U.S. bank Citicorp to form Citigroup, the Travelers spokeswoman said, adding Citicorp officials were aware of the Salomon Smith Barney losses. The deal still awaits regulatory approval.


Your assumptions that I speak as a man hurting are correct. But not for the reasons you presume. As I stated plainly here many times, other than a day trade or two, I bailed out of Equities last August at DOW 8300. I've been waiting for a "crash" scenario to get back in. ( I'm still not ready...when I see 7000, I'll start DCA back in ) .

No Miro, my pain comes from watching a world that was prospering, turn into an ugly placefor many who are hurting over real losses. I find it especially dispicable that some folks cheer this on with glee, as if it is some great moral battle won.

What makes Gold backed currency more "moral" than fiat currency? Ntohing. It's all perception. The markets in SE Asia, Japan, Indonesia, Russia, et al, are failing due to unrestrained and unregulated extension of credit, where no meritoroius projects existed.

Corporate debt in the U.S. is less than corporate assets. In the meltdown foreign markets on the other hand, debt may run 5 times assets. This is truly fiat credit expansion that leads to bust.

However, the fact that these emerginf economies handled foreign capital poorly, does not make Gold backed currency more "moral" than fiat currencies.

As I've tried to point out here a few dozen times, the populations of ALL societies on this plaent, suffered far more economic deprivation and misery under Gold backed currency schemes, than they have under fiat...even accounting for the current meltdowns. Hopefully they'll learn a thing or two about regulating their banking industries.

Meanwhile, asking a Korean, Argentinan, Chinese, Russian, et al whether they would rather return to the "good old days" of feudelistic societies, mass starvation, and ownership of NOTHING, due to a complete illiquidity of capital.

There is nothing noble, honorable, or moral about Gold or Gold backed currency. Nothing. I love the shiny metal. It doesn't make it a superior form of economic growth among nations.

LGB

"I think the next 18 months will be the greatest period of uncertainty in all of human history. Look at what's likely"

*Revolution in nuclear-armed Russia
*Y2K breakdowns
*The botched launch of Europe's new euro
*War in Kosovo spreading
*More war in the Caspian/Caucasus area
*Stock market crash
*Recession in the US
*Iraq and Iran launching a war to take back the Persian Gulf during Y2K
*Economic chaos, riots, and rebellion in China
*Civil war in Indonesia
*Escalating war between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan
*War between Greece and Turkey

"I am wonderfully optimistic about the stock market because I think it is headed for another 1929-style crash that will yield the greatest bargains in six decades. But we are no where near the bottom. Patience. Get safe and wait. Stay in T-bills and PRECIOUS METALS.

FWIW: How will this all play out? Clinton...protected in good times...will be ever more vulnerable as our econmy worsens. Cries for impeachment will likely grow louder as voters become disenchanted with
dire economic conditions. Countries throughout the world, i.e. China, will devalue their currencies flooding the U.S. markets with their cheaper goods. People will postpone buying items, say a TV, because it may cost $500 this week...waiting two weeks will bring the price down $50 and so on and so on in this recessionary climate. But..eventually we may well experiece inflationary or even hyperinflationary conditions
not unlike what Russia is experiencing now...where people are buying today because the item may cost $100 more next month.

Re your 21:01....It would appear once again, that the precise OPPOSITE of rate increases necessitated by inflationary pressures is what's in the cards. Once again, the guru from beyond was as wrong as wrong can be.
( But of course SOME day hyper-inflation will once again rear it's ugly head..... if we havn't died of old age by then there will be some folks here who will say "SEE SEE, he was right all along, what a prophet! )

Now wouldn't you agree that there's at least a 50% chance AG will lower rates soon? Within the next quarter? And especially if equities don't rebound?

LGB

Lead story - K O M S O M O L S K A Y A  P R A V D A
Interior Ministry and the Army Are Prepared to Cut Short Massive Civil Unrest

Summary
A highly positioned source at the Defense Ministry told the daily that the situation there now is similar to what it was in 1993 ( when President Boris Yeltsin ordered troops to fire on parliament ) .

Commanders of nearby units -- the Tamanskaya and Kantemirovskaya divisions and the Tyoplyi Stan brigade -- have been ordered to prepare themselves for extraordinary situations. The Tula, Ryazan and Tver divisions have received similar orders. Troops were told increase the guard on stores of ammunition, fuel and food supplies.

According to some sources, officers were told to return early from vacation, and army circles are discussing the last meeting between Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev and President Boris Yeltsin, in which Sergeyev reportedly assured the president of the troops' loyalty and support.

The daily wrote that the situation in the Interior Ministry is also very tense. According to Komsomolka, the president has ordered Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin to make sure his ministry is ready to act under extraordinary circumstances. Interior Ministry forces are ready to mobilize to Moscow in the event of civil unrest in the capital.

The daily added that the Federal Security Service ( FSB ) is gathering information about the possible destabilization of the situation in Moscow, as well as keeping a watch on the explosive regions of the Far East.

about K O M S O M O L S K A Y A  P R A V D A
( circulation 1.6 million ) . A former Soviet youth newspaper, it is now a national daily owned by the UNEXIM Group with the largest circulation of any Russian newspaper. It has a good network of correspondents throughout the country but provides little analysis.

...gogold...........

The outcome of this meltdown will not be fun for anyone. Simply maintaining any wealth over the next few years will be a challange.

Klinton lost exactly 512 points in popularity today.

I do disagree with one point. I don't believe anything can stop this meltdown at this point. Only a prayer can reach the point of control.

Maybe we should call upon our moral leader to say a little prayer Hu.

"Anyone who believes the Pentagon is competent to fix its Y2K problems in time to keep Iraq and Iran from taking back the Persian Gulf should think about the recent audit at the Pentagon. The auditors found a few small pieces of hardware missing: 8 cruise missiles, 35 aircraft, 220 tanks and 21 ships"

You doubt me?

THen answer the following questions:

1 ) Where do gold shorts obtain most of their funds? HINT: NOT from shorting gold.
2 ) WHich hedge funds have been devastated by the August market debacle and will be unable to seed future gold shorting?
3 ) Who has been consolidating cash recently in order to buy gold and take delivery?
4 ) WHich entity is preparing a short attack upon the US Buck?

Can you answer these questions?

THANKS.

Indeedy. Thingie. Fumpy. Scoobeedoobeedoobee.

( and other miscellaneous baby talk )

F*
---------------
Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 02:39
farfel ( OLDMAN & GOLD... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have said in the past, I believe the Oldman is a shrewd trader, although he was late in recognizing the Bear
Market this summer. However, I remain firmly convinced that his assessment of gold and silver is completely off
the mark.

As I have oft mentioned in the past, I always felt that goldbugs would fail to recognize the paradigm shift when it
finally arrived. In fact, to date, I have been proven correct.

The paradigm shift in general equities was NOT sparked by goldbugs nor bears. It was sparked by ultra-bull
Ralph Acampora...it took a major stock Bull analyst to concretize the paradigm shift we are now witnessing. No
surprise there. Goldbugs and chronic bears are members of a minority and I always contended that the paradigm
shift MUST be instigated by a change of heart in the leading members of the majority, namely the general equities
bulls. Why? Because, essentially, goldbugs and bears have had next to ZERO credibility this past decade. Sharp
analysts like Puetz have beem mocked and derided an dismissed as effective retards.

On the other hand, a fellow like Acampora has been heralded as one of the Stock Bull's demigods. Not because
his analysis is so astute or well-educated but simply because, with a combination of corrupt government
intervention in the markets and a good deal of luck, he has proven to be correct. So, when a fellow who
commands such reverence amongst stock bulls turns bearish, THAT is a major event!

As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general
market. So discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping their gold equities....in some
cases, even their physical. Again, this is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift.
However, it should come as no surprise that a time lag exists between the start of a general equities bear and a real
substantive gold bull.

First, people must ACCEPT the reality of the general equities bear. Once acceptance takes place, then they must do
some research and investigation as to alternative bearish investments. Naturally, their own financial advisors push
bonds and Utes as flights to safety, at the same time continuing to extoll key bullish investments. However, once
these various, purported flights to safety prove to be as susceptible to a downslide as equities, then these same
disillusioned investors will begin to listen to the "fringe and/or peripheral analysts."

For example, since I have been bearish for some time, as such I am a member of this lunatic fringe. I am well
aware of the standard reactions to this "lunatic" bearishness. People raise their eyes and look far off into space
when you attempt to explain the paradigm shift that is occurring and will continue to develop. Yet, now I am
seeing evidence of the paradigm shift slowly developing into a populist fever. I am receiving more and more phone
calls from people who, in the past, listened politely to my analyses at best or simply chose to cut off all
communication with me, regarding me as a doomsaying oddball. Today, these people are calling me up for
opinions and analysis. Their own investment advisors appear uncertain, confused, and nervous. They no longer
recommend equities with heart-felt conviction...they're not really certain about bonds. They're not really sure
Clinton is good for the country or ever was. Basically, as they see their world crumble around them, they're not
sure if up is up or down is down anymore.

So, people are calling and they're asking, "Where do I buy gold and silver? How should I buy gold and silver?" It
is really an amazing phenomenon to see, given that so many of these individuals would normally have shunned me
if I walked into a room.

Yet, when they call me, they find that nothing has changed. I still speak with full conviction that PM's are the
ONLY flight to safety in the new economic devolution spreading across the world. I still extoll various gold and
silver producers as inevitable beneficiaries of this flight to safety. I still state categorically that NOT all paper will
burn in a market crash...it NEVER did before, why now? Nothing has changed in my perspective. I am solid as a
rock ( as Bob Seger would say ) and people gravitate toward analysts with pure unqualified conviction. It is all
part of the paradigm shift.

Falling demand for gold in Asia or Europe? Falling silver demand in India? Big F*ing Deal!! It will be more than
made up for by an amazing surge of PM demand right here in N. America and Europe as people clamber for an
investment alternative to collapsing equities and bonds. Rest assured that the bonds bubble will burst, independent
of the direction of interest rates. With an equities market collapse, many companies will become insolvent and
unable to make payments on their bonds. Many statea and local governments will also become insolvent and fail
on their payments. The resultant panic in the bonds market will prove devastating.

As an alternative investment which acts as a hedge against global currency chaos, GOLD and SILVER are it!
Deflation, when it triggers pandemic currency crises, CANNOT result in the negation of gold and silver in the long
run. There simply are no other historical flights to safety available.

Finally, One thing I speak of with the utmost conviction is this: last Thursday, the gold shorts piled on when gold
broke technical support at 278. It was NO accident. Gold was ALLOWED to break technical support; it did not do
so on its own momentum or of its volition. Very shortly, we will see a consortium of CB's, power players, and
institutions bid gold through the roof. So, unfortunately, the upsurge in gold shorting was a major and fatal
mistake for the funds that did so and, shortly ( I would guess within several weeks ) , they will ALL be wiped out.


Repeat. They will ALL be wiped out.

I say this without qualification and without a shadow of a doubt.

GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no
eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up.

Yes, it is true that commodities fall during deflations. However, what the PM shorts never fully understood is this:
gold and silver never were, and are not, and never will be mere commodities.

There never was a NEW PARADIGM.

Just go ask Acampora.

Thanks.

F*

You doubt me?

THen answer the following questions:

1 ) Where do gold shorts obtain most of their funds? HINT: NOT from shorting gold.
2 ) WHich hedge funds have been devastated by the August market debacle and will be unable to seed future gold
shorting?
3 ) Who has been consolidating cash recently in order to buy gold and take delivery?
4 ) WHich entity is preparing a short attack upon the US Buck?

Can you answer these questions?

THANKS.

Indeedy. Thingie. Fumpy. Scoobeedoobeedoobee.

( and other miscellaneous baby talk )

F*
---------------
Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 02:39
farfel ( OLDMAN & GOLD... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have said in the past, I believe the Oldman is a shrewd trader, although he was late in recognizing the Bear
Market this summer. However, I remain firmly convinced that his assessment of gold and silver is completely off
the mark.

As I have oft mentioned in the past, I always felt that goldbugs would fail to recognize the paradigm shift when it
finally arrived. In fact, to date, I have been proven correct.

The paradigm shift in general equities was NOT sparked by goldbugs nor bears. It was sparked by ultra-bull
Ralph Acampora...it took a major stock Bull analyst to concretize the paradigm shift we are now witnessing. No
surprise there. Goldbugs and chronic bears are members of a minority and I always contended that the paradigm
shift MUST be instigated by a change of heart in the leading members of the majority, namely the general equities
bulls. Why? Because, essentially, goldbugs and bears have had next to ZERO credibility this past decade. Sharp
analysts like Puetz have beem mocked and derided an dismissed as effective retards.

On the other hand, a fellow like Acampora has been heralded as one of the Stock Bull's demigods. Not because
his analysis is so astute or well-educated but simply because, with a combination of corrupt government
intervention in the markets and a good deal of luck, he has proven to be correct. So, when a fellow who
commands such reverence amongst stock bulls turns bearish, THAT is a major event!

As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general
market. So discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping their gold equities....in some
cases, even their physical. Again, this is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift.
However, it should come as no surprise that a time lag exists between the start of a general equities bear and a real
substantive gold bull.

First, people must ACCEPT the reality of the general equities bear. Once acceptance takes place, then they must do

some research and investigation as to alternative bearish investments. Naturally, their own financial advisors push
bonds and Utes as flights to safety, at the same time continuing to extoll key bullish investments. However, once
these various, purported flights to safety prove to be as susceptible to a downslide as equities, then these same
disillusioned investors will begin to listen to the "fringe and/or peripheral analysts."

For example, since I have been bearish for some time, as such I am a member of this lunatic fringe. I am well
aware of the standard reactions to this "lunatic" bearishness. People raise their eyes and look far off into space
when you attempt to explain the paradigm shift that is occurring and will continue to develop. Yet, now I am
seeing evidence of the paradigm shift slowly developing into a populist fever. I am receiving more and more phone

calls from people who, in the past, listened politely to my analyses at best or simply chose to cut off all
communication with me, regarding me as a doomsaying oddball. Today, these people are calling me up for
opinions and analysis. Their own investment advisors appear uncertain, confused, and nervous. They no longer
recommend equities with heart-felt conviction...they're not really certain about bonds. They're not really sure
Clinton is good for the country or ever was. Basically, as they see their world crumble around them, they're not
sure if up is up or down is down anymore.

So, people are calling and they're asking, "Where do I buy gold and silver? How should I buy gold and silver?" It
is really an amazing phenomenon to see, given that so many of these individuals would normally have shunned me

if I walked into a room.

Yet, when they call me, they find that nothing has changed. I still speak with full conviction that PM's are the
ONLY flight to safety in the new economic devolution spreading across the world. I still extoll various gold and
silver producers as inevitable beneficiaries of this flight to safety. I still state categorically that NOT all paper will
burn in a market crash...it NEVER did before, why now? Nothing has changed in my perspective. I am solid as a
rock ( as Bob Seger would say ) and people gravitate toward analysts with pure unqualified conviction. It is all
part of the paradigm shift.

Falling demand for gold in Asia or Europe? Falling silver demand in India? Big F*ing Deal!! It will be more than
made up for by an amazing surge of PM demand right here in N. America and Europe as people clamber for an
investment alternative to collapsing equities and bonds. Rest assured that the bonds bubble will burst, independent
of the direction of interest rates. With an equities market collapse, many companies will become insolvent and
unable to make payments on their bonds. Many statea and local governments will also become insolvent and fail
on their payments. The resultant panic in the bonds market will prove devastating.

As an alternative investment which acts as a hedge against global currency chaos, GOLD and SILVER are it!
Deflation, when it triggers pandemic currency crises, CANNOT result in the negation of gold and silver in the long

run. There simply are no other historical flights to safety available.

Finally, One thing I speak of with the utmost conviction is this: last Thursday, the gold shorts piled on when gold
broke technical support at 278. It was NO accident. Gold was ALLOWED to break technical support; it did not do
so on its own momentum or of its volition. Very shortly, we will see a consortium of CB's, power players, and
institutions bid gold through the roof. So, unfortunately, the upsurge in gold shorting was a major and fatal
mistake for the funds that did so and, shortly ( I would guess within several weeks ) , they will ALL be wiped out.



Repeat. They will ALL be wiped out.

I say this without qualification and without a shadow of a doubt.

GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no
eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up.

Yes, it is true that commodities fall during deflations. However, what the PM shorts never fully understood is this:

gold and silver never were, and are not, and never will be mere commodities.

There never was a NEW PARADIGM.

Just go ask Acampora.

Thanks.

F*

Barron's last weekend was just jam-packed with negative sentiment. One worrisome note was the analysis that the USD took its big hit Friday rom fear of a two-headed specter: Clinton heading for Russia and Rubin going to Japan, supposedly to support both currencies. Well, it doesn't take a big leap of logic to realize that the US will be generating more electronic digits AKA USD to generate this support. Thus the 2% decline of the dollar Friday.

This will be the first real pressure on the USD in years. If it becomes linked in the minds of investors/speculators with the ruble, and printing presses, others may see it for the paper it is. There is a real chance that "Cash is king" may soon be replaced by "Cash is Trash" for USD holders. Watch the Bob and Bill show carefully.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

Did anyone catch the news item that North Korea launched a missile that went right over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean?...It was about the fifth story cited after the today's stock market debacle. This is serious business...very serious business! What if that missile had misfired and landed on Japanese soil? Will the North Koreans do it again? Have world leaders...read Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin... become so weakened that maverick nations such as North Korea have become increasingly emboldened?

IAtolU -

I certainly hope you held on to the platinum you bought at $400, it will be worth much more soon. Thank you also for calling attention to the fact that I thought platinum was the buy of the year near $400. If I had not already done that half a dozen times on these very pages myself, I guess you woulda scooped me on the story. Oh well. I hope you still own the platinum, I still have mine - paid more for it than it is worth today - and that is indeedy so. If it makes you happy, I was wrong. The thing that makes me a good trader, is that I know I was wrong. Zealots loose this ability to distinguish. As for getting a life: I have one. Perhaps some would scorn, but many would envy, so I have zero complaints on that score. I would be happy to let you know where you can get one should you feel lost and lonely and in need of stimulation of a higher order than you have offered us here. Lemme know, Kay?


Lurky -

I cant get used to the whole bug thing, and since LGB creates a knee jerk reaction to some and, indeedy so, I do have a vision of you lurking about, peeking over cubicles, peering into documents, and keeping people honest; I prefer Lurky And so you are..

I first called for a Dow 10K on the site June 15, 1997, when the Dow was in the high 6s, and the same time I told folks hereabouts that gold would fall through $300 ( gold was $350 then and definitely at a rock solid, down in the canyon, lookin' up at an ant's belly: bottom ) . This belief is indeedy the first belief listed in my Belief Manifesto of that date. Since the big D hit 9300, I did not miss the mark by much, yes? Still and all, and all said and done: this year aint over yet ( In another post of the same period, I called for Dow 10K by end of 98 ) , is it? Thanks for you supportive words now and before.


To All the Rest of Youse Folks -

Anybody who has read this site for any length of time knows I am not squeamish, nor am likely to run from a snarl. I have, on occasion, give quite the same in return to those who bite. But this wholesale glee on the losses of others is childless and base. It has zero class, and is sure to jinx those who indulge in this kind of browbeating.

I hope you all heard that.

If you shout with glee
At anothers losses
Your fortunes are jinxed
Your trades will turn sour
Your oxen will grow flatulent
And a pox will fall on your houses.

The trading gods are jealous and fickle
And they may want to play
With those who presume
To know the mind
Of the Capricious Ones.

OdamnK

I agree with your scenario except the part that the US market will become a bull again when BC resigns. It will not. Markets are proving the world over that they are more powerful than governments, and much more powerful than whatever influence individuals can have.
We are in a full blown deflation, and have been for a few months. This will take years to sort out. Bullion will fall, oil will fall, housing will fall, food will be short, etc. Gold will be a haven.
Pray to God that we get out of this without a revolution of some sort. I fear that we will not.

I see currencies going up in smoke and derivatives...burning.

Tom

This is the irony of all times.
Your commentary on the fiat of gold is not just ludicrous, it is patently flawed. You missed the fundamentals. GOLD is not a metal, it is not some expensive substitute for paper. No, it is discipline. Something apparently you are unfamiliar with. Gold assures and ensures no overextensions such as the one you describe.
Perhaps government should "invent" a surrogate for gold, worldwide, which we shall goverum, comprised of a secret isotopic formula, only known to the New World Order government, which is rare in its creation, and provides backing for fiat paper currencies. This shall be promulgated as a backed paper called the Bur-eau, or Glob-o or something similarly mindless. Emulate Nature. TRY. But it will fail. Because it is not disciplined by nature itself. Gold is a discipline, not a currency. Don't blame the paper.

Thinking like the bulls are - today was probably, in their eyes, the sell-off they've been waiting for to get the rally underway. Through the bull glasses, they didn't understand why their was such a dramatic correction in the first place, so they're looking for a bottom here ( which I think they'll find soon enough ) , and I fully expect people to jump right on back in there. We've heard for weeks that they were just seeking a bottom, not that they thought it was going to fall this far, but in their minds, this is just a better bottom with more up-side, so I think the bulls will move in and buy more aggresively than they did on past rallies. I'm fully expecting this thing to turn around again. There's enough wiggle room there to support a multi-week rally, on volume, without reaching old highs. Plenty of time to step in and short and/or PUT the market back down again.

Looking at the bear graph ( taking the graph and flipping it over ) , we've seen a nice little "rally" here for a few weeks, but we can't expect it to go straight to the heavens - there is BOUND to be a bull rally. None of the bulls want to lock in loses like these, and some of them don't even expect to. If all the bulls thought that the market would fall - nobody would be holding stock right now! These guys even use a word for it "capitulation", and that's what the buyers are waiting for. The bulls were looking for a "fear" day with high volume on the down-side, and I think they got what they were looking for.

The bear has eaten all the bad news that's out there right now - and I think it's scared off all the bulls it's going to scare off for the moment, then again, I could be wrong.

As always, we just never know, do we.

We won't experience hyperinflation a la Russia, because the U.S. dollar will nbot be devalued relative to other major currencies the way the ruble has been. Also, our economy is not nearly as dependant on exports as the Russkie economy.

However, as to Clinton finally taking his well deserved beating in popularity, due to a crashing Equities market and attendent recession from worldwide economic problems...... yep, I think so. The "boom" economy ( which CLinton had nothing to do with ) was the only real reason for his popularity....well that and his diehard Leftist Liberal Hollywood phony contituency.

Ironically, it'll be the same economy that finally crushes his popularity ratings, and this time he may indeed legitimately take credit for some of it's demise. After all, Clinton had the privelege of serving in the most important economic bully pulpit in the world.... the highest office of the strongest free market economy, the highest office of the last remaining superpower......

And what does he do with this great opportunity? This incredible honor?

He Squanders it for daliances with an immature 21 year old intern. ( Not to mention firing decades long loyal white house staffers, and Travel office employee's, watching his close advisors and cronies like HUbbel convicted of felonies, mysterious deaths taking place with 20+ "insiders", selling influence to any foreign national who would make campaign contributions, etc etc etc )

What a disgrace...leader of the free world indeed.

LGB

for December contract!!!

I went short again this morning as we dipped below yesterday's close. I'm glad I didn't miss the ride. Tomorrow, who knows. I'm betting we have more downside early on before a rally that may or may not occur. I had a hard time getting on the net tonight. The access lines were all busy. I think my neighbors are waking up and checking their mutual funds.

Only three days but a thousand Dow points down..... Now, what will London do tomorrow? Hint, they were left out of today's U.S. action.
Oh, and yes, I would call this a crash.... Lots of money went to money heaven today.

Tom

NASB. The times, they are a changin'.

One day we'll look back on these days of global turmoil and say,
"I was there. I saw that happen. I was a part of that."

Be true to your convictions. Do what you do with honesty.
And make these memories ones to be proud of. Ones to tell your grandkids.

One tidbit of interest:
I'm reading a book on the depression ( 1929-1939 ) written by those who lived through it. A collection of life's moments.

Almost to a person the writers wish they could *GO BACK* to those times.
Why? Because people cared. Because 'things' were valued less than relationships. Because people came to the aid of one another.

So when some here worry about the 'hardships' of DOW 7000 and below, I say, "bring it on."
Maybe we can clear away some of the dross of modern society.
And get back to the things that really matter.
Maybe.

MG ( Go Gold! )

RJ: Several days ago you threw your hat in the ring, and said that you were going long gold bullion. Now, Oldman thinks gold is going well below 280/oz.
My question to you begins with a comment: If gold is to drop more, it is because another large gold-rich country is in serious trouble, and is forced into a gold 'fire' sale. What do you think about Germany? Are they in serious enough trouble that they might be forced to sell more gold? Do you think AG is pushing gold down with all of his might to keep the US markets from doing even worse? He did threaten to push gold down if gold rallied, so he is certainly capable of doing something.

I think these gold fire sales are nearly over, IMHO.

PREDICTION...TOMORROW'S LONDON FIX....$290. GOGOLD

RJ: Several days ago you threw your hat in the ring, and said that you were going long gold bullion. Now, Oldman thinks gold is going well below 280/oz.
My question to you begins with a comment: If gold is to drop more, it is because another large gold-rich country is in serious trouble, and is forced into a gold 'fire' sale. What do you think about Germany? Are they in serious enough trouble that they might be forced to sell more gold?

I think these gold fire sales are nearly over, IMHO.

PREDICTION...TOMORROW'S LONDON FIX....$290. GOGOLD

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/rapid_weak_1.html

Oh I see. Gold backed currency adherents are now morally superior because "Gold is discipline".

Tell me.... in the good old days when such "discipline" meant millions starving and/or living in indentured servitude, due to the gross economic ineffeciency of such "discipline" ...

Was this a morally superior, just, and right economic model for humanity? History speaks to us clearly on this subject. Ascribing positive moral qualities to an inert metal as the only means of economic exchange, is certainly as arbitrary as ascribing the same to fiat currencies. The only difference being, one has worled to propel us into relative world prosperity for MANY, while the other accomplished nothing of the sort.

The U.S. dollar has no intrinsic value. It's value is based on a system of Govt., a fairly well regulated banking system, an abundance of natural resources, and a culture that makes effecient exchange of goods, services, and also grants opportunities to those with vision....prosperity.

Ideas and values..... a willingness to extend a helping hand via credit to someone with the drive and willingness to make things happen.... I'm not talking socialism here..... these are the values behind the dollar. And they are the values that have helped build the strongest economy in the world.

Don't tell me that a bunch of tight Ass old men miserly counting their little Gold stash is somehow morally superior. Now THAT'S an absurd idea.

LGB

as reported by CNN a few minutes ago.

This is HARD fact and not just opinion - The DOW is still way overpriced by historical measures. The price to book ratio was at @ 7.5 when the Dow was at 9300. The historical average is @ 2.5 !
At @ 3100, the Dow would be at it's historical average.
Anything above this my friends is fluff, hype and greed......... Period.

Your "statements for the ages" post was great.

Regarding Crinton:
He also sent his wife, friends, colleagues,
And employees to defend the lie.
This man cares for none but his own bad self.
One day, that is all he will have
And he deserves what he gets.

Yep

And the little guy won't panic. He'll ride the Bear all the way down. People don't understand that liquidity can dry up overnight. When there are no buyers, it's name your price. The upvolume of 38 million shares vs. down volume of 876 million speaks for itself. There are no buyers left. Perhaps Klinton can offer special vouchers to poor black & latino children so that they can invest in the stock market just like little rich white kids.

Stox ain't done tankin' yet. 'Ma and Pa' are only just now beginning to get worried. Yard rakers and barbers still positive. Got to have a real washout first. We should get some kind of bounce up somewhere before the real washout happens. Might begin tomorrow if we get a BAD downday and LOTS of volume. Today didn't meet the above expectations. Also, 'support' areas are being cut through like soft butter. Expect real tears flowing in the streets before the bottom to be in. Seems to be how the markets work!

XAU can easily continue down even if POG doesn't. Augers' XAU of 35 is NOT beyond the whelm of distinct possibilities even if the POG were to rise! $250 gold? $200 gold? Neither of those are beyond the whelm of possibilities. Only really makes any difference if you are holding paper that might care, except that one 'might' be able to pick it up cheaper at those levels, IF the level ( s ) should occur. Funny how 'funnymentals' and extreme demand can change in a blink of an eye!

I specifically said I will not trade gold long here, but am recommending gold deliveries to my clients at these levels. Trading gold and delivering gold are different things entirely.

Perhaps some nation in need would sell gold, but to whom? The dollar is high for everybody. We know the Russians aint gonna be selling, if the had it, they would have sold it already, yes?

At about $275 gold is now down to about what the average cost of producing an oz was estimated to be in late '96 and early '97. As many high price producers have shut down many operating mines switch to higher grade ore the average cost is now lower. $250 seems to be the current estimate.

Beware!!!!!

This world is not the same as before.

$500 Billion lost today
2$ Trillion lost since the highs.
Just in the US.

What's in front of us.

Capitulation....

And we are not there yet.

And Y2k has yet to be factored in.

My guess is that the rate of selling is to increase - dramatically.

Swing chart posted.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg
Which shows the recent sell signall.

We have just entered a new sell signal on the swing.
A new wave down.

Beware and bewarned.

LGB:

Leaving aside the morality question for a moment, there are some very good reasons why a commodity backed currency is more desireable than a pure fiat one.

The most important reason is that a clean separation between money and credit can be drawn. The economic value of credit creation need not disappear in a system where money is backed with tangible wealth. There is nothing inherently difficult with having gold loans, silver loans, lumber loans, oil loans or semiconductor loans. Each of these would carry its own rate of interest depending upon the relative difficulty of replacing the loan with future stuff. A basket of stuff could easily be the basis for a global currency.

Once money is separated from credit, the possibility of creating currency runs disappears. The tragedy of what has occured in SE Asia and more recently Russia could simply not have existed. In addition, the creation of a commodity backed currency could be truly global. One kitco ( for lack of a better name ) would be worth the same everywhere on earth. This would have enormously positive trade effects, as all the transaction costs associated with mulitple currencies just disappears. This lubricating effect is the whole raison d'etre of the Euro.

The counter argument of a one world fiat currency is a difficult one to make. When money is tied up with credit, then the whole process of money creation becomes politicized. Who gets to control the printing process? Centralization of this power is a pretty scary thought if you have any bit of libertarian blood flowing in your veins. ( I do )

If there is a moral catch to this whole thing it would appear that the pure fiat system doesn't stand up so well. Those people who can least afford to take risks with their savings because they are the least able to regenerate wealth are the ones that have been most hammered by this currency debacle. I guess one could say that those billion or so people should have been smart enough to denominate their wealth in something tangible, but that doesn't sound so moral, does it?

------------FLASH ALERT------------

While everyone in America with a nickel in the markets is aware of today's
meltdown on the Street of Dreams, far fewer know the dynamics of what will be
happening while we sleep tonight. This is from Sec. of the Treasury Robt.
Rubin today, by way of an AP wire story ( thanks Joe G ) ;

= He said it was particularly important that Japan, the world's second-largest economy, "move ahead with actions to put its economy back on track so that it can be a source of strength for the rest of the world."

There is a very good reason why Rubin talks more about Japan these days than
the Japanese Prime Minster. The Tokyo Nikkei Index fell below key support on
Friday, essentially taking valuations by way of financial time warp to 1986.
Buy and hold in Japan for 12 years would have brought you to---dead even,less
inflation. So what's new tonight?

The Nikkei eked out a gain of 1.4% last night our time, a bit of good news in
a long chain of market erosion there. So what did Wall Street do? It had what
some are describing as "the beginning of the real bear market." How does that
affect the Japanese?

Remember, they bought our real estate at a near top, and watched it sink. They
bought our bonds in '94 and watched them get beaten down. They recently were
allowed to begin buying off shore easily. So the yen was dynamited, and what
little they had in dollar purchasing power went into our market near the top.
Would you be celebrating tonight if you were in this situation? And if there
is a big sell off tonight in Tokyo, the gigantic Japanese banks which have
been technically insolvent but have had their accounting fiddled with
government approval to look sustainable, will be undeniably under water. These
are some of the largest financial institutions on Planet Earth. And if they
start selling US Treasuries to stay afloat ( they have a ton ) , then our bond
rally goes down the tubes, and today's equity fall looks like just the
beginning. See why Rob Rubin wants to talk up Japan?

How about our markets tomorrow? My prediction: if the Nikkei sells off big
tonight, the rest of Asia goes along for the ride. Tomorrow morning early,
check out London's FTSE-100. UK exchanges were closed today for holiday, so no
Brits could exit on our news unless they had offshore brokers. If Tokyo sells
off, the Brits will have two days of losses to catch up with, and they'll sell
off with a vengeance. We then pick up where we left off tomorrow on the Dow,
with the slide possibly going from serious to panic.

This is probably the most important night in the financial markets in many
years. We'll see what tomorrow holds. You can keep this post and humiliate me
tomorrow this time if I'm all wet!

What's the connection with Y2K? If I'm right, I'll explain tomorrow. If I'm
wrong, you probably shouldn't be listening to me anyway ;- )

Wayne Dennis Holt _____
http://www.ergomania.com

------------FLASH ALERT------------

You are on a roll tonight.
I can find little fault
With your view
Which, more than many
Sees what is there

Go

SPECIAL INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Monday, August 31, 1998

1 ) Just as this decline never gave us the short-term rallies in which we
HOPED to add to short positions, it ALSO has not given investors any
opportunity to build up cash.

3 ) As yet, the only panicking has been from money managers. There has been
NO significant outflow from mutual funds, which means that any fireworks
still lie ahead.

) As we warned on the weekend hotline, if a crash scenario is imminent, it
will likely hit this week. In both 1929 and 1987, the Crashes hit within 3
days after the DJIA losses exceeded -13%. That level was crossed last
Friday.

5 ) We wouldn't be surprised if the "Plunge Protection" team ( publicized by
the Financial Times and comprised of Greenspan, Ruben, and the chairmen of
the NYSE and CBOE ) pull out all stops to rally the stock index futures
before tomorrow's open. As this hotline is being made, the aftermarket
futures are trading on the upside.

Bottomline, this market's now entered the Twilight Zone. No one can say if
it's going to crash... no one can even say whether we might open 100pts
higher or lower tomorrow ( except perhaps Alan Greenspan ) . What we can tell
you is that it's still a confirmed bear market... the worst is still
ahead... it is FAR too early to even hint at buying ( and also too risky to
add to short positions at such oversold level ) .
Worst case scenario for tomorrow: would be a pop-up rally like today ( to
calm nerves ) , followed by a relentless downward selling throughout the
morning. If the market is off over 200pts after two hours of trading, then
look-out below!

We will now ONLY exit our gold fund position if gold drops under $270/oz.

3 For new subscribers: is it too late to sell? In all probability, no.
Remember, 91% of the money in stock mutual funds has never seen a bear
market... and right now, 100% of that would give anything for a rally and a
chance to get out at a higher level.

Expect panic Fed easing once the DJIA breaks 7000.
Big dent in trader confidence

and tonight was the first time I ever heard it referred to as a discipline. The stock market is not moral or immoral either. Is your point that fiat currency is more easily manipulated than gold, and therefor more immoral than gold? The BIS was created to handle the German war reparations and an attempt to return to the gold standard. Did that make it moral? I doubt that the manipulations in todays fiat currency market was any different than the manipulations in the 1920's in an effort to return to the gold standard.

Home is where you hang your @
The e-mail of the species is more deadly than the mail.
A journey of a thousand sites begins with a single click.
You can't teach a new mouse old clicks.
Great groups from little icons grow.
Speak softly and carry a cell phone.
C:\ is the root of all directories.
Don't put all your hypes in one homepage.
Pentium wise; pen and paper foolish.
The modem is the message
Too many clicks spoil the browse.
The geek shall inherit the earth.
A chat has nine lives.
Don't byte off more than you can view.
Fax is stranger than fiction.
What boots up must come down.
Virtual reality is its own reward.
Modulation in all things.
A user and his leisure time are soon parted.
There's no place like http://www.home.com
Know what to expect before you connect.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice.
Speed thrills.
Give a man a fish and you feed him and he won't bother you for weeks.
for a day; teach him to use the Net

Does anyone have an opinion as to: if the markets continue down tommorrow, will the price of gold/silver/platinum also continue to drop?

DO NOT get me wrong *grin*, I'm thinking this market has a LONG ways to go down, but I fully expect there to be a rally in there, a real rally, not just something people are selling into, and I expect it to be there before we see the serious slide. In the "put your money where your mouth is" vain - No, I did not go out and start purchasing stock or buying bargain basement calls today, but I did sell my puts and lock in the profit for now. Sure, that could prove to be a bad move, but I'm playing with gambling money, and I'm flying purely on intuition here and am willing to lose what I'm playing with. This thing AIN'T gonna drop to zero in a straight line - there will be rallies. Buy fear, sell greed as it's been said here, and fear is out there right now, but it won't be long before those same people calm down and start bargain hunting. It has absolutely nothing to do with reality. Reality says this market should have been sitting below 5000 for the past few years.

My mother was a depression child, born in 1929. I was visiting my sister in LA with my mother about ten years ago, not long after my sister moved there and three years before my mother passed away. At the time, there were still no homeless people in the streets of Boston where my mother lived, and she never travelled outside Boston, so this visit to LA was her introduction to the homeless in the US. I recall driving by a man in dirty clothes standing on the corner, of Sunset and Highland, perhaps, and my mother burst into tears. She didn't know that she lived in a society where people were allowed to suffer this way, in the country where in her childhood many were poor but no one was left to beg in the streets. She cried out of sadness, helplessness, regret, shame.

I grew up during the "good times" and was confused by her reaction. Where not these people always here? Was it not normal to ignore them?

If nothing else, perhaps widespread hardship will renew the acceptability of compassion as a basic expression of humanity in the face of the suffering of others.

G'Nite.

-EJ

...it's going thru the roof, TOM.

THROUGH THE F*ING ROOF!!

Take note of these words: LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.

Remember, I called a summertime equities debacle and wrote 1000 words to that effect. Do you remember?

Dead On!

I feel bad for all those unfortunates snookered into this market by the WALL STREET criminials.

Now I see A GOLD SHORT DEBACLE...within the next few days! Armstrong selling pencils on a street corner. Merrill Lynch's O'Neil selling his blood for money. Ted Arnold, a male prostitute doing miserable business.

As they sneered and ridiculed goldbugs, so shall they be treated!

What's happening to their almighty US BUCK? Tell me, TOM? TELL ME!!

And those anti-gold hedge funds....OHMIGOD! What's happening to them, TOM?

HARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHAR
HARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHAR
HARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHARHAR

Thanks.

F*

Gold stocks were reluctant losers today. ASA is holding to its lows of last week. Conventional wisdom was that tomorrow would open down and reverse mid-day or later, ideally from about 6900 on the DOW. At this hour however, the S&P futures are up 17 points, suggesting that a reversal from lower lows may not be in the cards.

Also, the OEX is still up about 2.4% for the year and this does not give confidence that a low of any duration has been made in any equity class.
The one constant we've seen thus far is - when equities in general are going down, so are gold stocks. A reversal in this relationship would be joyful.

testing

Read THE COMING GOLD DISCIPLINE, by COnrad Michael Modica ISBN 0-9637719-0-6

E-Mail exchanged with wife around close of markets today:

ME: Bad news first - Stox Markets crashed and burned today, all profits for 1998 now history. DOW lost 512 points...down over 6% in one day. NASDAQ lost over 140 points. Let's see how many Bulls there are out there now...

Her Response: I know about the stock market. Everyone was crowded around the TV near my desk earlier today moaning and groaning about it.

.

...thingie, indeedy, fumpy, lurky, jerky, scoobeedoobeedoobee,
and other miscellaneous baby talk.

( WAAAAAH, WAAAAAAH, I want my Mommy! )

Thanks.

F*

kick in enough in the am to start a short covering rally, then the dip buyers ? We'll see soon enough.

Press release from the house of shame.

My fellow Americans, it is with a heavy laden heart and after much anguish I come to you tonight with some very distressing news. Our very close friends ( of Klinton ) Communist China are experiencing an unwarranted attack on the Hong Kong stock market. We hereby are authorizing ( E.O. 14567 ) the Chineese government to sell some of their newly acquired missile technology to North Korea . By doing so they will have the resource's to intervene in the markets and stop this senseless loss of wealth ! Of course this action will make the region in Asia very unstable and warrant a new conflict in South Korea. We believe with this new limited and unwinnable war our spending on arms will be the catalyst to propel our country into the new millennium and beyond. Good Night and may BUDDHA be with you all.

Thanks

And no ill feelings from I

OK?

......"apart from our GOLD".........

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/russia_fut_2.html

ALOT of presssure is going to come onto "Old" Boris........

"Dollars, you can keep them, but your GOLD, that's ANOTHER matter...."

I see a "shit fight" coming up...........

Fundamentals my dear chap, fundamentals.........

Dow to head below 5000........

RIP at 3000...........

GOLD, GOLD, GOLD.............

CNN quotes "The Dines Letter" as main feature in its top story! How is that for BEAR news?!

http://cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9808/31/q_8000/

= He said it was particularly important that Japan, the world's second-largest economy, "move ahead with actions to put its economy back on track so that it can be a source of strength for the rest of the world."

........looks like the Japanese has STILL got the YANKS by the balls.....