Thingy, fumpy, indeedy, lurky, scoobeedoobeedoobee, and other related baby talk.

HARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHOOOORHOOOOR
HARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHOOOORHOOOOR
HARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHOOOORHOOOOR
HARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHORHORHARHARHORHOOOORHOOOOR
HOR.

Thanks.

F*

The US$ is the focus of fiat currencies, it caused the current problem in the first place......

Clearly, after flooding the financial world with US$, the US Bankning system must at some point be held accountable for the brewing shambles it has caused since 1973......

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Penis envy.

Oh, when the gold shorts
Oh, when the gold shorts
Oh, when the gold shorts are getting creamed
I wanna be there laughin'
When the gold shorts are getting creamed.

Thanks.

F*

Welcome to September everyone.

2BR02B, what did you call me ? *grin*

Funny watching them all try to get out from behind the curve. None of them predicted this bear, in fact many derided negative talk about the markets. Now they are all saying how it will go down further, all the bad news is not factored in, etc.. All seem to now be able to finger the causes, after the fact!

It is enough to make Kitcoites jealous!

I think we may get a 200 point rally tomorrow. I also think we can expect a suprise move in gold, maybe $5-$8. Don't sue me if I am wrong.

Asset allocation is how high priced brokers will now earn their fees. Gold will now be the brokers friend ( at least a 5% friend ) . Wait until bonds take it on the chin because of overseas selling. If their recessions caused them to dump their natural resources, then the bonds now need to go.

On that note, if U.S. arm twisting kept Asia from dumping treasuries in the past, Russia just made it a viable option by defaulting on their debt obligations. Anything goes now and self interest is king.

Cry, gold short, cry
Make your mother sigh
You're old enough to know better
SO, CRY GOLD SHORT CRY...

C'mon, now,

CRY GOLD SHORT CRY
Make your mother sigh
YOu're old enough to know better
So cry, gold short, cry.

Thanks.

F*

I would guess that real assets will fall hard for the next six months or so.
Same with the paper ones.
Extreme deflation for all asetts.

When realization sets in about how unstable paper money is,
And most debts have been paid.
Then I would expect an immense bull in PM's as many shift what little they have left to a safer haven.

Also many will become aware in the next year as to the actuality of Y2k.
They will seek safe havens and security of family and assets.
Stocking up on food and PM's ( instead of FRN's ) and relocating to safer comunities.

At the moment there would hardly be 1% of the population who is aware.
Same did apply for the market bulls.

But time brings changes and awareness.

I would expect at least 5% to 10% of peoples to be aware of Y2k by this time next year.

When they start to move to the exits the rest will sit up and take notice.

Just like in the equity markets.
6 months ago 1% awareness.
Now 5% to 10% awareness.
Next month 50% and panic sets in.

Troubled times are a coming.

Take care and all the necessary precautions for you and yours.

Boris and Bubba show!
They have it in their hands. The spotlight is upon them. The final opportunity for the meeting of American and Soviet minds to reconcile, fix it all, and move the huge world economy. WOW!
What an opportunity to excel,
OR BUST.
Which will it be.
Billions WAIT.
Let them not fall short.
I only hope, I don't wish failure.
Back to basics, not of capitalism or leninism, but
the great precepts of individualism, libertarianism, democracy,
and self determinism.

What a scene.
What history.
What rubes in the stance of MEN!

Key Russian Army Units Reportedly Placed on Alert

Citing a "highly positioned source at the Defense Ministry," the Russian
newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" reported Monday that commanders of the
Tamanskaya and Kantemirovskaya Divisions and the Tyoplyi Stan Brigade, all
stationed near Moscow, as well as the Tula, Ryazan, and Tver Divisions,
have been ordered to "prepare themselves for extraordinary situations."
Officers have reportedly had their leaves canceled, and the units have been
ordered to increase their guard on ammunition, food, and fuel stockpiles.
Komsomolskaya Pravda also reported that acting Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev had assured Russian President Boris Yeltsin of the troops' loyalty
during a recent meeting. Additionally, the newspaper reported that the
Interior Ministry had been ordered to prepare to "act under extraordinary
circumstances" in Moscow, should civil unrest arise. Finally, the
newspaper reported that Russia's Federal Security Service, the successor to
the KGB, is monitoring the situation in Moscow and the Far East for any
signs of destabilization.

Despite Sergeyev's alleged assurances of loyalty, the idea that Yeltsin can
rely on the military to come to his aid as it has twice in the past is far
from certain. Others are calling for the army's support as well. On
Monday, Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov called on the army
and law enforcement agencies to defend against any attempt by Yeltsin to
disband the parliament. In a speech before the Duma, Zyuganov said, "I am
appealing to all people, especially those who wear uniform. The last
island of little legality which still exists in the country is here in the
Duma and the Federation Council. If it is finished and destroyed, then
chaos and gangs will prevail."

Still another possibility was posed by retired General Alexander Lebed, who
declared in an interview published Monday in the French newspaper "Le
Figaro," that "The army is in a revolutionary mood." "In what mood do you
think the army is when officers have not been paid for five months?" he
asked. Lebed concluded that "The government could collapse in 24 hours.
Everybody is fed up." He urged support for acting Prime Minister Viktor
Chernomyrdin, who he insisted was the only person with even the slightest
chance of averting Russia's collapse. The Duma later rejected
Chernomyrdin's appointment.

The Russian Army has been as battered by the country's economic decline and
collapse as has the rest of the population, and has been reduced to
scavenging in preparation for the coming winter. Soldiers are frequently
seen begging in Russia's cities, as months can pass between paychecks,
which are as inadequate as they are rare. More than 150,000 discharged
soldiers await promised housing, and Komsomolskaya Pravda has reported that
worthless housing vouchers issued to Baltic Fleet officers have driven them
to the brink of mutiny. Isolated acts of rebellion have already occurred.
In one incident in July, a major in central Russia reportedly took to the
streets in a commandeered tank to protest unpaid salaries. Despite
promises by Chernomyrdin to pay overdue military salaries, acting Defense
Minister Sergeyev has ordered all ranks of commanders to "look for
additional sources [of sustenance for the winter] and assume personal
control." Orders have reportedly been issued to all soldiers and officers
to take to the fields to harvest mushrooms, berries, and other sources of
food for the winter.

During the failed coup attempt in 1991 against then-President Gorbachev by
hard-liners, and again in the standoff between Yeltsin and hard-liners in
the Duma in 1993, the Russian Army either stood aside or stood by Yeltsin.
However, in both cases, popular opinion was largely on Yeltsin's side. If
asked to defend Yeltsin against overwhelming civilian opposition, the army
this time is likely to step aside. With almost no support for Yeltsin,
either in or outside of Russia, the army has little to gain by turning Red
Square into a Tienanmen Square for him. Furthermore, as the army rank and
file share the economic grievances of masses, the Russian General Staff
will wish to avoid situations that could force divisions in the ranks.

Computer looked inactive, so opened another web page. Guess my post was bouncing around in the Aether. G'Nite all!

With corn at 3.3 cents a pound, do we conclude that we can feed the world cheaply, or that every American farmer who grows corn will lose his farm when he goes bankrupt...

Great dislocations are coming, not only to gold stocks, but to many other sectors suffering from lower commodity prices.

Tony BULL

I think it is quite reasonable to tell
EVERYONE you know that we can surely expect the worst case scenario re our
financial outlook. Normally a bear market takes from 18 months to 2 years to
work off. This is expected to be an unusually broad and deep bear, and we'll
be coming up for air...as Y2K hits. Anyone who can't see the inevitability of
this playing out shouldn't be left unsupervised in the tub.

Brother Tom, glad to hear about CZ. Get GECO or
FIOOCHI ammo, or any western NATO spec. ( milsurp. ) ,
anyway, something hotter than UMC and other civilian
loadings. This thing likes power...Please let
me know if you like it, I bet you will...

In regard to the end of the summer - may be,
may be not yet, it seems to me that critical
mass is not yet formed. I'm not talking about
cents, I mean what you mean. I'm gonna have
my wine and cheese test party shortly after two
unhappy presidents meet each other to discuss
Russian and American sex and stuff. Also, it seems
that if American investors are gonna be blessed
with at least two more days like today, you can
proudly report to your family...and I bet you bet
on this blessing.. Interesting times, yes? PMSP.

...you can't hide your lying eyes
and your smile's a thin disguise
I thought by now you'd realize
There ain't no way to hide your lying eyes.

HARHARHORHORHARHORHARHOR.

THanks.

F*

Gold comment: Stocks, because of the last nineteen years of steady,

consistent increases have been favored over all other investments,

including Gold. But now, with the stock market most likely having

reached the peak of our lifetime, that may change. When you step

back and look at the world and see terrorism, the Asian crisis, the

Russian crisis, the Y2K crisis, and the Stock market crisis, to

mention but a few, you cant help but become frightened. I dont know

about most people, but for me owning gold, purchased at any price,

gives me a sense of security while living in this unstable world.

I want to be like all of the big countries of the world who, when

they turn to their neighbors in times of trouble, that as long as

they have Gold, their neighbors are always willing to help. Much like

them, I know that if I have Gold and the world falls apart, I too can

use my Gold to pay my neighbors for the help I need.

by C.M. Modica is not listed among the 3,000,000 titles offered for sale by Amazon.com. Where do I locate this book?

travels today...the metals will move up faster than anticipated...how soon I cannot say, but I think perhaps September or October...this may be in order...

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?2563227

In general the dollar has lost about 1% per day for the last five trading days against the Yen, the Mark, and the Franc.

not sold by 3,000 bookstores on Bibliofind.com. Is it a religious tract?

Brother, in case you do not know,
Zhirinovsky is the rare kind of stinking bastard,
and medically speaking, bloody idiot. The only medicine
that can fix this problem is a magnum charge of OO buckshot
delivered to the area below his belt...
where his f*cking brains are...

Still only Aug 31 here, how do I see what the asia market are doing now as they are open and trading now. Any good sites that will help me.

same fact to me as you just did...I had never even heard of the guy...gulp to ya...

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

jinx!

PPT ( or some crazy investors with cajones the size of the US National Debt ) has brought the SP500 Sept futures up 21.70 and climbing. This is approx 170 Dow points. This will mean Europe's opening won't be that weak ( 1% or 2% down vs 5% or more ) , and I wouldn't be surprised if the US Market's don't gain back everything tomorrow what they lost today. Never underestimate what Rubin and the boys can do when they have to.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

I'd Hammer on Gold shorts
I'd hammer on gold shorts
All over this land
I'd hammer them worthless
I'd hammer them bankrupt
I'd hammer them black and blue
and scoobeedoo

ALL OVER THIS LAAANDD!

( Sing it Baby! )

Thanks.

F*

Ya know...ya know...

Thanks,I suppose most of us who love gold are still having trouble digesting the latest meltdown ( gold? ) just kidding.

the library or a used bookstore...

I still don't think the PPT had anything to do with it, this is just the bulls getting their spirit back after a good down day. Like I said before, they've just been waiting for the blue chips to have a good fall along with everything else, that's their indicator of a wash-out, and the beginning of a rally. The market was at "maximum fear" for this stage in the game, in my most humble and quite possibly incorrect opinion. My gambling money is going to sit on the side-lines and wait for another good buy on shorts/puts as this sad beast gets it's legs back. I'm thinking this thing could see 9000 again, as always, who can say ? We just never really know until everybody else knows, but of course, then it isn't valuable to know anymore.

Tolerant1: A raised glass to ya.

Kelowna
some of us have been waiting for The Great Spike Down, we are not to be disappointed.

Oldman
Excellent call.

Nick@C
How's the horseman holding out?

Tol1
Want a game of marbles?

Lefty Kiwi
let us know when you're around and I'll give you a bell.

chas
I really like Allen's thoughts on the coin.

all
NZSE ( the flea on the flea of the flea on the dog's bollocks ) took another hiding today. It is obvious that rugby matches NZ v Aus. have deep and profound effects on the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

http://www.dailystocks.com/

People that grow corn will survive. The point you make about dislocation requires much thought. I ask you this question. Are we goldbugs because we like gold or because it requires thought and reflection?

S&P Futures are rippin away could be a big day tomorrow? +21 +800 pts.

Any body else having a problem getting this site to load?

HighRise

http://www.abebooks.com

S & P Sept. futures +20, NASAQ Sept. futures +30

Relax Investors, all the dire economic and other problems
that have been causing a little anxiety lately have just
been resolved. Everybody hop on the great bull as it charges
on once again.

Jeezus, What a Fu***KED UP world we live in.

GO GOLD

little sombreros I had made up in gold...pitchin little gold sombreros against the curb or even better...playing shooters with them would add a whole new dimension to this illustrious sport...this could be a whole new business...

Looks like the White House is getting down to bare knuckles brawling. Politics is getting
vicious, nasty, and raw. In other words, a
BLOODY good show! These F*ers are scrambling! http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a596383.htm

money in this market...I mean equites and all...not mining shares...and to any who do not feel they have enough metal in possession I would put half your cash there and hold the rest of your cash for the fire sale we will see soon...uh huh...

http://www.scdut.com/

http://www.scdut.com/

and everybody saw Clinter for what he is during that pathetic speech... wait for the report...as I have said before...Monica ain't nothin...this is about treason...high treason...Arkansas, China...and all those dead bodies in Clintler's past...they are going to politically filet that big piece of lying bacon...uh oh...I think I hear a black helicopter overhead...NOT!!!

I sent you an e-mail but it came back. New address? What's up?

I'm thinking this summit could be very dangerous. Hell, the Presisident of the US is not even sure who will be the Russian Head of State during his visit. The whole thing is unscripted. It's also looking like the US F*ed up with that Sudan cruise missile attack. Looking more and more like that was indeed a pharmaceutical plant.

With the beating that most paper currencies have taken over the past year, it is difficult to phantom why foreigners have put trust in dollar investments, when fiat paper currencies that put then in their present fix.

The talk of the fed droping rates is to help a stock market, that is far on hope, short on earnings and cash flows.

Don't be surprised if this market keeps on falling, their is little substance.

I think the result of a rate drop if it occurs, will create an outflow of foreign capital. Some might even consider a small investment in gold.

More important, with the market busted and the ensuing unemployment created by the bust, how will the US Government service its foreign and domestic debt.

The dollar be it strong or weak, has without a doubt infected our foreign trade account and this realisation will hit suddenly and hard.

strad
just emailed your last post to  directly.

tolerant
golden sombreros? They sound beautiful. I am hoping to get hold of a real Korean golden pig soon, that'll be something else.

http://www.gomonica.com/vanityfair2.shtml and from this next link you can see this is the kind of stuff they put in their pages to satisfy their 73% female readership...

http://ny.yahoo.com/external/wcbs_radio/stories/8707782410.html

As usual you are extremly generous with your information and your following is increasing proportionately. You are a good man!

got drunk and put on a blue dress for Clintler...next thing ya know he would have a job in the Pentagon...eeeeek...yikes...and of course if there was a stain on that dress it would be a vast Right Wing Conspiracy...

well, at this rate, if the stock market goes to 0, gold should hit $290 :+ )

One of my blue collar fellowworkers says to me, "Now would probably be a good time to buy some more stocks." I says to him "Stocks won't ever get that high again, unless we get inflation."
The ignorant well-trained masses will probably give this market a breather. They won't learn ( unlearn ) until the next leg down. Don't buy until you see a five in front of the Dow I've been tellin em for six months now.

Cautiously optimistic on gold. For the last ten years or so we haven't had a good rally until we've gotten a big drop-off-the-cliff type selloff in either gold or silver. I think this breaking of the Jan lows is a bear trap. Could see $300 gold in a few weeks. 330 by November. Could tack on $8-10 today.

Just in case you missed it, Gianni Dorio gave you an answer at 08:35.
I live in Canada and the Canadian Mint sell a beautiful 1 OZ Silver Maple Leaf. I bought 100 on Aug 12th through my bank CIBC, they charged me $13.79 Canadian each when Silver spot price was around $8.00 Canadian, this is 72% mark up. But this was the cheapest I could find, the Mint wanted $21.00 Canadian each or 250% mark up ! It didn't matter if I was buying one or 100, the unit price was the same.
These coins were immaculate, scelled and dated 1993. I also bought some Gold Maple Leaf through the same bank and they only charged me 6% over the spot price, so everybody seems to make much more profit on the silver coins.
If interested, you can check this URL, it give you a contact to where you can buy these coins in H.K.
http://www.rcmint.ca/en/bullion/buymlc.html
Hope it helps.
Have you been living long in H.K. ? I went there Xmas of 1996 before the change over. Everything was booming then.
I asked the same question that you did but didn't get an answer, so I still don't know how the silver coin business works.

Envy: Although I would love to believe that we have free markets with no govt intervention, this is not the case ( Japan, Hong Kong, etc., publically disclosing market intervention ) . I have a hard time believing that the after hours rally in the SP Futures is the result of Bulls ( Dipsters ) looking for an opportunity.

Trading on globex is generally done by the professionals/wannabes. I may be mistaken, but the current law of the land was/is "the trend is your friend." Anybody, who watched the close of the US markets could clearly determine that there was strong and CONTINUING washout at the close. Numerous sell at market close orders. If the markets were to remain open for another hour, there was more, much more damange to be done. At the close, the "trend" was clearly down and down hard.

What happened after the close, Rubin got on the phone to all the major players, spoon-fed the media the usual sound economic fundamental blah, blah, and then the asian markets stabalized and the SP futures are rising, but we are to believe that the Dipsters are looking for a good reentry point and discarding "the trend is your friend" rule. It just doesn't add up IMHO.

.. will work as well as anything else .. now to
recent .. UNNATURAL EVENTS ..
Early this morning I went to the kitchen for a morning
cup of coffee. I found a golden egg yolk in one of the
dog's bowls. The white was in a dish in the kitchen sink.
The alarms were on .. no one could have gotten into
the house to perform this strange egg-yolk to dog
ritual. I questioned the maid when she came in from
her quarters. She was bug eyed. My wife denies having
done it. I didnt do it.. So who did it ??? There is
NO ONE ELSE... spookey hey?
Now the real question is .. IS THIS A SIGN ???
The chicken that lays the GOLDEN YOLK ..think about it.
Then I went to the computer .. logged in .. and saw
that Ben had finally gotten his jaws around the Dog
Bones Average.

market is toast...big time toast...the government and the media is terrified of what is happening...they tried to make it sound like this was all because of Russia...ah...yeah...

crusty
sounds like a Fortean event in your kitchen.

There may well be other eggs appearing in dogs' bowls around the world.

Such things have been written in the Book of Nigel 4:21.

Also, see Nigel 4:9 "By his tupping-crayon you shall know him."

this mystery of your's...I almost fell out of the chair...you can find the strangest stuff if you look for...golden egg or yolk...try either one in your search engine...trust me on this...you are not prepared for this... heh...heh...heh...

I realize that this is extremely controversial, but I think it is important enough that it should be posted. As I write, Ed Dames the remote viewer, is on the Art Bell radio show and is predicting a total default on government securities by the US government. You can hear this yourself by going to http://ww2.broadcast.com/artbell/ and listening using Real Audio.

This has the Chi-Coms in a real snit! http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/596574.htm

This has the Chi-Coms in a real snit!
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a596574.htm This URL should work

scared her senseless out of equities. I told her to load the boat the way she leveraged her house in the 80's to multiply the rabbits with Walmart. I told her to buy HGMCY @ MOO in the AM ! Should I call her back monnanna before the market opens & tell her to wait ? Hell no, I was born poor & I figure this is my only shot at inheriting a legacy. And now that you have revealed that Ben likes his Golden egg yokes over easy, I'll sleep like a baby tonight. Gee, you don't suppose that Ben just heard the Twilight Bark of the BIS kervilles & he just slurped up the Egg whites only, just to give us a sign ? I sure do !

Y.O.S.,...,


TAR BABY

http://www.dailystocks.com/




Stock buybacks stream in Who's the first to jump back in? U.S. stock market investors are waiting for the one piece of good news to come out of this summer's market rout: stock buybacks. Corporate treasurers, led by Boeing ( BA ) , are testing the waters. Boeing says it could buy back up to 15 percent of the aircraft maker's crashing stock. That's 15 percent of 1 billion shares. No one expects Boeing to spend cash to buy back shares that are worth $4.5 billion, at current levels. But it's a nice gesture. About 950 publicly traded companies in the U.S. stock market have bought back shares this year according to Securities Data Co. Potential size: $128 billion. APAC Teleservices ( APAC ) will buy back up to 5 percent of its stock. Wausau-Mosinee ( WMO ) approved a 10 percent stock buyback. Even the board of directors of battered Computer Learning ( CLCX ) said it would seek to buy back 1 million shares. Let's see if some of the heavyweights step up to the buyback plate Tuesday. So far this week, drug maker Merck & Co. ( MRK ) and restaurant company Wendy's International ( WEN ) are on the record saying they are buying their tumbling shares on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Talking about margins, had a guy call me today from a futures firm, asked him what the margin for spoos, he claimed 15,000; then I asked what if one does not hold overnight, his reply " you won't need margin for day trading" . Think that guy has any problems this evening?

tank god I only got cash and I don;t have to adjust:}

Taiwan has banned its financial sector from trading with Mr George Soros' funds. Maybe clinton wont be blamed after all.

evening news is telling folks to get out of the market if they need the money soon

heck weren't they just told to buy in to the dips SW? wish they would make up their minds...sheesh

waiting for gold to pop...if it don't no big deal...can accept verdict of the market...just waiting and watching

boy first Klington smart missiles the sudan ....now he's gonna destroy the stock market ... I tell ya this guy ain;t gonna stoop at nuttin to get the heat off hisself!
...and there goes rusty outta the startin gate .....Spoos climbin fast over 96300

...good thing bloobex has no upside limits eh?

pretty amazing globex move

3.7 handles in about 3 minutes ....the lions are out tonite

this is the area of liquidation by professionals, die hard bulls fundamentals, meeting required margin calls. all they now hope for is bear rally. get the message?

maybe some intervention on Globex ... volume boost

man Japan and HK bounce 200 points off the lows and bonds get whacked for 16 ticks. maybe asia will lead us out of this, wow i must be really tired

should be up 20-25 handles before 3 AM just to make things a bit more "interesting"

titanic shoots sos signal....

dunno, but 100 lots in 10 minutes on Globex

you gotta figure they are gonna intervene...globex perfect...thin

more intervention I reckon ... the volume over the last 30 minutes has been quite high

I would imagine a short squeeze would be appropriate right about now if you were trying to save this thing....

well, he would need to use up billions to keep this thing up for more than a day or two

of hedge funds or whoever knew the fed ( treas ) were intervening...they would cover rather than fight, IMO...what I meant

that's what helps the intervention to succeed ... but often only short-term

we ain't hong kong....fundamentals ( or hope of ) could support a rally from her once the seed is sown....thats all bobby needs to do ......sow the seed

I'm looking at Tuesday evening, Wednesday morning for a serious assay to the downside. Should be timed to a Sixty, Hondo and Daily downcrosses. Meanwhile, bonds could spike to 130^00 at any time. Check out site link for full narrative and integration with stocks.

whatever, I would be veru surprised if we don't see lower lows tomorrow ... and Spoos are currently about 17 above their closing price ... if it got up to the 27 limit price on Globex, it's a major opportunity to short

hell yah...limit up after the 3rd weakest day in history....I'd say its a short

judging from the current volume decline it looks like it's over for now, but maybe another tranche of intervention prior to the open?

remember how they worked the yen...wait for thin markets...drive it up and hold....yen of course came back down but spoos is different...hopes and dreams of america

the hopes and dreams of the *world* are resting on the Dow et al., but I think this bear market is going to be long and deep

me thinks the bonds are soon toast.....

if the rumours have it correctly, this is not a w buffett's year, sold mcd 50% too early, bought silver, bought crb, sold all his zeros too early...boy

don't underestimate the resilience of the american scam......did I say scam? I mean't pyramid scheme

mania? ... tulip bulb stock scheme?

exactly....would expect much energy expended to keep it going until fate became too obvious to the many

i isn't capable of unriddling that nodus thingy--- hey!~ how about the Japanese SELL!!!! $300Billion worth?? that could be the nodus thingy of which you speak? , no?

No joke- the banks are next- they are so in hock- and they are the lenders- when the currency markets collapse- it's all she wrote. I knew it the minute that dang 15 minute bar hit the 30 MA and the next bar closed lower: ) The pure gold oleman trade- indeed, I've become a rich young man on such trivial works of genius. my gawd, and once I flipped burgers in college- wondering- just wondering- what the heck was ever going to come of this tall bearded fellow I saw reflecting back at me in the glass doors of the sliding doors of the cooler. Unreal when you think of it...

you know, that isn't so farfetched. the Japanese are the ones who invented the bullet bid--- why not a bullet sell?

bullet bid is a bid at a treasury auction designed to "take it all". in the 80's the Japanese often tried and succeeded in buying the whole auction of 30 year treasuries with a bullet bid

did you see greenspan today? he vacations in your very state. oblivious as always....

they used to march in and buy the whole curve on some non auction days.

no one knows for sure, but I say this-- if you ever see the dow at 800 plus- get out. if it comes back there in years to come-- re-enter at the same darned level, you woulod not have lost a dime really. One thing people fail to recognize is that the stocks you own ( ed ) at the price they were- were indeed a gift. They are STILL a gift. Make of that what you will... The dow SHOULD be at 3 to 4 thousand something for all practical purposes.

well now that nearly everyone has gone to the side of the boat that says the market will go down tomorrow. watch out when the boat tips and the longs get a ride up.

of course there's a chance of 3-4000 dow....we could also rally from here to 10000.....ask yourself which one you thing has the better chance, giving the action we have seen past few weeks

There's just so much turmoil all over the world - gees Hong Kong, Russia, Japan, South America, and then there's the Clinton debacle can't see the market going up. But then so many people have their money in funds for retirement - It's so hard to know what to do

anything above 4000 dow is a gift imo.

shake a martini and think about this--- You and millions of other Americans have beenb POURING 18 BILLION buckaroos into the market on average per month during the last 8 years. LAST MONTH- you put 1.1 billion in, and this month you actually withdrawed MORE than you put it. When a car doesn't have any gas in the tank- it don't run. Simple as that- it isn't rocket science.
one thing is certain. if you move your mf's to cash equivalents, their value will not go down from that point. Of course the market could go up and you'd say i should have stayed in. tough call at this point, but if you are concerned about further losses you don't have many choices. and you can always get back in if you think the dust has settled. from what i read, there is a real possiblity that this market could go lower. but then who can look into the future.
knowing your time frame for investing certainly helps figuring out what you want to do. Note, the operative word is investing, not speculating or gambling. Oleman often quotes a certain trader by the name of Jesse Livermoore, who said, amongst other things, that your position in a stock determines how you should handle it. That is, how early or late did you get into it and where do expect it to go at the minimum? That makes a difference as to whether you can ride or cut loose.

--------------------
oleman . .
I dont know how it is in the Mother Country, but over here, fokes who dont know p/e from poltergeist think that their MF's have been going up for years because they're SMART. Ergo, for bloated pigs like PFE to go down while they own them is not only a financial blow to the solar plexis, it is also an insult to their intelligence.: )

got charts to look at. should get a reversal somewhere between here and about 880 tomorrow. This rally here is for sellin, tho. bbl.

Yo! Bros and Babes. Looks like they're really gonna play with fokes' minds now, dont it?: )

Anyone who didn't get any of the goodies today should either adopt models' methods of investment, learn how to trade, or get a regular job.

It's Russia! Henry Kaufman, who has been wrong about everything for more than a decade is on niteline tellin us what's what.
He's been standin too close to greenspan at cocktail parties. caught his dementia. Why dont they put a Baptist on there?

Its NOT a bear market! Aint that wunnerful? NOW I can go to bed and sleep peacefully. Cause Ol' Al Sinai said it aint a bear.

Your odds are 97% to make dough in the market if you just hang in there. Its True! I saw it right there on the telescreen. Straight from the Ministry of Truth. No problem. All this recent unpleasantness will soon disappear down the memory hole, if only we will all just learn to love Big Bubba.: )

Dr. Doom disagrees with Abby Joe.

Might as well. Only a handful of handles from lim up, anyway. The rest will do us more good. You will be able to by em back at wholesale in the rth. 'nite all. ABC has put my mind to rest. Now my body follows. pooffff

evening...scary stuff...these people will be wiped out...and of course...not one mention of Y2K...not one...

We are gold bugs not because we love gold, but because we understand that fiat money terminates with crashes. If we did not have this simple understanding, we would be happier individuals, never thinking that worse things can happen.

We do not believe in eternal prosperity, especially now that we saw what happened to those who did ( Asia, et al ) . Granted, we are taking our losses, but I also have convinced myself that one will not be totally immuned from a market holocaust. Even those who are 100% in cash, may be sorry they did if there is a run on the banks.

Tony BULL

The insiders have confused everyone in believing that the market or the treasuries are the place to be, hell they produce returns, that is before a currency dives.

The situation is in there control, by virtue of being insiders. When they lower the boom, we all hear about Japan, Russia, the Mafia and cronyism.

After the fall, the confused will start wondering if they were plundered. By then the confused are so weak that in reacting violently, they become stigmatised as lawbreakers.

Better the confused put a part of the proceeds from stock sales in gold, according to their situation.

The cause will always look more convincing, when taking on the plunderers from a position of strenght.

myrmidon
I'm a goldbug because I love gold. Yes. That's right. Why else? SIMPLE THOUGHTS like that are mine. i love gold ergo i am a goldbug.

Okay, fine, it was the PPT *grin*. I'm just glad that I made the mistake of selling my puts in anticipation of a bull rally and accidentally jumped into the arms of the PPT then. I hope they always intervene when I see an illusionary rally coming my way.

Even though the first post was worth reading - thank you JTF,
and the repeats were late at night when the risk of bringing the server down is not as high, but five repeats of a lengthy post is NOT, NOT, NOT ) ( &_ ( ) *^ ( *% ( *&^ acceptable! When this server gets slow to respond DO NOT repeatedly hit the submit button just cause you got no response from the first tap. This behavior contributes to taking this forum off the air.
This behavior is also like the horn blowers at a traffic light.
At times I can barely restrain myself from taking my aluminum baseball bat and beating all their glass into shards and making their beautiful waxed metal look like it just came through a storm of 2" hail.
( I use an aluminum bat because wood gets beat up too fast. Steel pipe works better though ) .
Pardon me for wasting Bart's bandwidth on this subject. But maybe, just maybe, with a little caution we can help this server stay up.

Because the "Dragon" has been slain - The mighty U.S. beast
is apparently not immortal after all -

Change the channel or
Turn it off and walk with the children.

The press for the sheeple will indeed seem gloomy.
But the sun is shining.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Envy: Congrats to you for bailing out with profits, anticipating the rebound. I would've let them ride ( greed factor, I don't get that feeling often being a gold-bull ) .

Sharefin do you have a file of Oleman posts from AVID? I have a few, but missed alot of them over the last year. thansen@cris.com

No I don't have a compiled list.

But you'll be able to find lots of his old posts here:
http://aig-www.dur.ac.uk/~nandrews/avid-chat/

Cheers

If I didn't know better I would say that the Aussie gold market performed a bullish key reversal today. Down heavily in the a.m. along with everything else, the goldies recovered sharply in late afternoon trading and the gold index actually finished up .41% after being down @3%+ during the morning. Mind you, the POG going up didn't hurt.

I feel like I've just been ice skating and been the one on the end of a whip. Of course I bought more gold shares this morning--just couldn't help myself. Am running out of gold-share-buying-money, so hope we get a bit of a boost overnight. Morning buys are already up @5%+/- but will need follow through from you lot up north.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that 271 the other day was the absolute bottom and it will be blue sky from here on. Gold shares, including the XAU will double in price over the next year. I work on the theory that if I keep calling bottoms, one day I am going to be right. This call, however, has a certain 'feel' to it.

I suggest that you feel your own bottoms and leave mine alone.

Nice to see some light-hearted humor on such a turbulent day....

The more hours spent on the Internet the more depressed and gloomy people are. They attributed it to lack of family ties - Sharefin you have a point. Maybe we should shut off this thing and go for a walk and interact with real people. Too much time here talking to other gloom and doomers only makes us worse.
Y2K, the four horsemen and Gold will go up as the world goes down.
Maybe we should get a life and life will look better.
But if it doesn't. And if those who have a life tell us it hasn't.
Then we better buy Gold - after we buy another ton of Groceries.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a596732.htm

Goldie, thanks for your comments. Here in Hongkong I can buy gold coins
( Maple, Nugget, Philpharmonics, Britannia ) from the Hang Seng bank. They even have a handy web site to check on the latest coin prices ( in HK $ ) :

www.hangseng.com/cgi-bin/golde.cgi

These coins sell at 5% premium to bullion spot so they are a good deal.

I thought of getting a few sliver coins as a bit of diversification, but they are not available at the bank, only from this coin dealer who is charging 170% above silver spot. This cannot be a good deal! If this is the premium for Silver then I will just stick with my gold.

We are lucky here in HK to be tied to the US$ ( at least for as long as it can hold ) so gold is very cheap in HK dollar terms. For me gold is perfect as a hedge against any de-pegging the HK dollar plus the added potential for appreciation.

In HK a very popular way of getting into gold is with a paper gold account. I dont hear much talk of these accounts on Kitco. What is the consensus on 'paper gold'? Are they a good thing?

i'm still holding on a few more days ... waiting for a nice big washout to buy those call warrants.

dunno if i'll be too late on the boat or not. i'll accept the ... ahem ... missed profits if that happens.

to each his own ( to find his own bottom included )

Namaste'

I have a question. If the Hong Kong Dollar is devalued, to where will the wealth flee? US$? Gold?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/malaysia_e_1.html

...make you salivate. The contrarian in me is drooling all over the keyboard!!! Pavlov, where are you?? Its feeding time!!

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html

Just saw your post on Silver purchases. You can get Silver at near spot via "junk Silver", or bullion bars of Silver, from many places in the US and Canada. I think they ship overseas.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980831/mexico_s_o_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/japan_grou_1.html

Went to that Privateer chart. Looks like the moments prior to that tsunami in Hawaii.

That chart looks like an absolutely PERFECT head and shoulders pattern to me......Keep some dry powder, mate! The pickin's on the other side of this waterfall are gonna be unbelievable!

What a surprise 6000 Dow will be! Gold is holding nicely . Don't expect to see gold under $250-260. $4.40-$4.50 silver distinctly in the cards. Plats to $340 or so. Excellent long term buying opportunity. Anybody for SSRIF at 5/8-3/4? Rangy 50cents !! FCX looks mighty cheap. Damn the torpedoes! Got gold? I'm stuffin my stocking with Saints.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/japan_ltcb_1.html

ANother decline inthe dollar is shaping up or down as the case may be. Bonds have backed off from a strong rally to be unchanged. Eurodollar was up 9 bais points and has shed most of those. What does this mean??

My bet - treasuries are being sold and so is the dollar. If the shorts ever start covering in gold and silver this thing could take off with a rush.

Patriot missles ready on Taiwan - heard this was underway about a year ago. Will be interesting to see if there is any Chinese reaction - probably not public.

Watch the dollar index - very bearish for the dollar if it closes under 99.63, in my opinion - its there now.

Think I'll buy some Harmony - sooner or later we will have hit bottom

tried to calm troubled markets, saying the U.S. economy remains sound. But he gave no sign that he had any new plans for relieving the financial crisis.

( However, I understand that he has been out of the market, safely in T-Bills for the past year. )

After last nights action in the markets my insanity rating amongst my wifes friends has dropped to 90% from 100% ,.......the price of being a gold bug too early .
The 1987 crash was much worse in NZ than elsewhere our market index was approaching 3000 and halved then , it only ever recovered to 2400 or therabouts and is in the 1750 range now . I bought govrnment stock in early 1988 , it was an easy call yields were 14% and no risk of government default ....definitely not the right move this time . But it looks like the sheeple need to go there first ....maybe another 18 months till I get my sanity cerificate .

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/malaysia_t_1.html

In HK there is a long tradition of holding gold, especially in the form of jewellery or Chinese bullion bars ( the ones shaped like a bathtub ) . Just take a walk down Nathan road in MonKok and you will be dazzled by the gold shops stacked full of the yellow metal. Gold is a big part of the culture here.

However, HK being a modern financial centre, has plenty of options for the average guy. It is easy to get a multi currency account that you can hold USD,CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD and various other currencies, so gold is not the only safe haven from jitters about the HK dollar.

HK Property is down 40-50% from the peak in July 97 ( but its still expensive, plenty more downside there ) , HK stocks are now just a toy for the government, China is even worse as an investment, what is there left except gold?
GO GOLD!

No Dow crash as of this moment.
http://www.barchart.com/cmelive/

A.K.A. Company Store Money; Hooray for Green Stamps

@aurator: Nice that real people still post here. You know, the folks who stride about adorned with Tupperware.
Is New Zeeland a country or just a sheep station?

lefty kiwi

It's been great talking to you on the phone.


ANOTHER goldbug in auckland!

Stock Prices Fall As Tech Stocks Lead Big Sell-Off

By E.S. BROWNING

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted, taking the blue-chip index to within 100 points of a bear-market decline of 20% from its high. Monday's 512.61-point, or 6.37%, plunge wiped out what was left of the year's gains, and more. The index, battered all month by Russia's problems and other global turmoil, now stands at 7539.07, its lowest level since Nov. 13 of last year. But what happened Monday didn't come close to being a crash. The percentage decline wasn't in the top 20 all time, and wasn't even as steep as the 7.18% Asia-related drop on Oct. 27 of last year,let alone the 22.61% stock-market crash of Oct. 19, 1987. That's even though in point terms the drop was the second-highest ever. "We had real indiscriminate selling [Monday]," said Jon Olesky, head of block trading at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, who called the day "historic." He said that "the last hour was quite violent. We saw nothing short of panic in a lot of sell orders." But he added, "We were not without a nice complement of buy orders in the last half-hour here." He said he saw a number of major institutions "stand up and say, 'Buy this stock and this stock and this stock. We don't know if we are picking the bottom, but we are comfortable here.' " The Nasdaq Composite Index, heavy in both technology and small-stock names, did enter bear-market territory, down 25.57% from its July 20 record. Monday, it fell 140.43 points, or 8.56%, to 1499.25. The point drop of that index, which has been calculated only since 1971, was the worst ever, and the percentage drop the fourth worst. Microsoft plunged 9 5/16 to 95 15/16. Dell Computer, another Nasdaq highflier, fell 18 3/4 to 100. Despite the carnage, Goldman Sachs investment Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, the stock market's most prominent bull, insisted that she is sticking to her guns. "My conclusion, the bottom line, is that what has happened is an overreaction," she said in a telephone interview. "The market now is notably undervalued, and I think stock prices should begin rising from here." Investors have understandably beenshaken by events abroad, such as the financial turmoil in Asia, Russia and Latin America, she said, adding that she expects the stock-market recovery to be gradual. But Ms. Cohen said the U.S. economy and U.S.corporate profits won't be seriously damaged by the foreign events. As investors begin to realize that, she maintained, they will bid stocks back up. She did, however, imply that she may be rethinking her oft-cited forecast that the Dow industrials will "easily"break 9300 by year's end."We clearly will be reviewing all of our expectations, as will everybody else," she said, adding that "the important thing is that this is a market that is very undervalued. Whether we get to 9300 in December or January is not really that important."

Perhaps, but in actual dollar terms, investors felt pain Monday -- at

least on paper. Based on the Wilshire 5000 index, which includes about

7,600 companies, or virtually every publicly traded company with headquarters in the U.S., investors saw their holdings in U.S. companies fall almost $700 billion, or 6.8%, in a single day, to about $9.6 trillion. Wilshire Associates of Los Angeles, which compiles the index, says that is the largest single-day loss of market value ever. From its high on July 17, when its market value was calculated at $12.2 trillion, the value of the Wilshire 5000 now has fallen by a staggering figure of

about $2.6 trillion.

In major market action: Stocks tumbled. On the Big Board, volume totaled 914.7 million shares, with 2,867 stocks declining and 403 advancing.

Bonds rallied. The 30-year bellwether Treasury bond rose nearly 1 15/32 points, or $14.6875 per $1,000 bond. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, stood at 5.236%. The dollar was lower.

It was at 1.7477 marks and 140.55 yen, compared with 1.7583 marks and 141.78 yen late Thursday in New York.

Where is Jeil? Bad timing, like most of us, but great decline-forecaster.

That Japan-derivate-failure-thing could indeed become interesting.

What is worse for the russian economy - A communist-added Tschernomyrdin, or a dissolved DUMA ?? Whatever - It WILL be negative for the Euro-stock-markets.

Im thinking about the following - Stocks keeping on their declinein Merka and Euro until the point, where currencies get weak. But weak against what? PMs?

Prepare for the Wurst!

Here are Jeil's latest updates. http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

I know that Aussie gold share chart looks ugly. I also know all about the head and shoulders stuff. When I get the old see-through-plastic-ruler out, I try to measure when the bounce will come. I think the time is NOW. This will be confirmed or denied in the next 1-4 weeks. I am in 'n out quicker 'n slick at an intern camp. I keep a core position with about half and trade the buggery out of the other half. I am down on the core and up on the trades. I am currently maxed out and will use rising stops if the move is up or a stop loss if the move is down. If I have picked the bottom I will make a squillion. If not I will try again at a lower price. Sure beats the casino in town. cheers, N.

Pretty quick, eh! I just went to sharefin's Markets page and looked for Jeil.

Fred

Ennivrez-vous! sans cesse.

lefty kiwi
and I are still talking on the other line, after 40 minutes on gold we're talking about rugby, and the sad, sad, state of the All Blacks.

Nick@C
You got moxie lad.

Graph shows Australian Gold Index ( top ) and ( bottom ) price of gold in Ozzie dollars/Gold Index ratio. Hang in their gold bugs - not long now.

Alf.

aeggo@c3.telstra-mm.net.auaeggo@c3.telstra-mm.net.au

Try http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/fbr/index.html for some interesting thoughts.

G.D., I agree that "small investor" does not have much cash available to buy this dip. Heard yesterday on Bloomberg that record number of $ were sent by Americans to pay off their credit card debt ( really, just to make a dent in it ) in July '98. In other words, all of a sudden people are becoming concerned with the big debts they have run up. Is the mentality changing? The stock market was up in July -- so I guess they are paying this debt out of current earnings and NOT sending more money into the mutual funds????

Xtal
After holding on to my losing SSRIF position I look back and see that
insiders like Teck were selling way before the recent decline in Silver
Standards price. The small amount of silver reserves they have are expensive to mine. Tvx is taking silver out hourly and has a lot more
cash than Robert Quatermain.
I couldn't make up my mind whether to buy More TVX or SSRIF in
May and decided to go the SSRIF route. I doubt I'll ever recover
the losses from that mistake but with TVX there is a greater potential
for reward. Take it from a sore loser buy TVX for silver

Don't look now but gold is inching up. December gold up 2.50 US Could be a good day for us old meltalmongers.

Free kiwi?

There's a lot of kiwis about, eh? Nocturnal animal, the kiwi.....

Just finished talking to Lefty kiwi who is one very interesting gold bug.I hope he contributes more here especially on Caralan and Gann.


He made a great Gann call that was lost in cyberspace a couple of days ago..


Nick@Moxy
I really should try to jump out of the plane as it flies over your place.

Nobody can afford to buy a dip. Clinton? He has lipstick on his dipstick!Have a gidday!

Adrian Day put out a buy recommendation on Pan American Silver ( Na:PAASF ) , less than 7.5, Peru output strong, Russia study soon.
Check out Newmont Mining ( new low again today ) also on his buy list.

mozel
new zealand may be the last bastion of free men in this sweet gold world.
The women like tupping and tupperware: The men like rugby and sheep: Sounds like paradise to me. :- )

the 3rd wave. The PPT has bought futures in the globex last night and is working hard to stem the decline. 3rd waves don't just turn around on a dime and change direction. Minimum downside is still 7073 area to complete the 3rd wave. Be careful!!!!!

Sounds like Clinton and Yeltsin are going to have an old fashioned stag party. Yeltsin will bring the booze and Clinton the women. Never has there been a more pathetic meeting between the battered leaders of two great countries. Each leader trying to mask his personal problems behind some meaningless internation confab. The first thing Clinton does with fresh scandal is leave the country. That wouldn't be all bad except for the fact that he keeps coming back.

I have the advantage of having more dollars than sense.

If you jump out of that plane, make sure your pockets arn't full of gold. I'll catch you ( on the first bounce ) .

Welcome, Free Kiwi. Aotearoans got nothing better to do?? Anyone wanna talk about the All Blacks??

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/markets_pr_1.html

Perhaps you could tell us exactly what "limit up" is for gold? You do not know, because you are a vaporhead. You make me laugh. Perhaps you will answer this one little question loudmouth:

What is "limit up" in gold?

Good luck.

We think we've been using the wrong kind of fuel in our planes. So today we will be testing a combination of hydrazine and liquid oxygen.

Rugerbee. Now, is there not some veracity to the story that the origin of the scrum can be found the movements of the sheep herd ?

Anyway, kidding aside, the best wishes to ya'll downunders. When the lights dim and maybe go out in Y2K, good luck and looking forward to re-connection. Internet has been spastic from here lately. So, better said too soon than left unsaid til too late.

Bufford, agree with you that TVX looks good at these levels, but disagree with you strongly regarding SSRIF. Its true that SSRIF has not performed well this year, but is now grossly undervalued. I was a long time share holder, but got lucky and dumped my shares ( maybe to you ) in April, well north of three. But I dont think your shares are a lost cause as you say.

With US $5.2 million in cash, no debt, and five ounces of silver for every share, this one is going to rocket substantially when silver recovers. Now trading at 75 cents, its a steal. Assuming they get their cash back with their Russian incident theyll be looking really sweet.

http://www.stockscape.com/silver/

Silver Standard has commenced legal action in the province of British Columbia to enforce repayment of amounts owing by Geolog. A Canadian smelter is currently treating precious metals concentrate exported by Geolog. Silver Standard has obtained an injunction restraining payment of funds by the smelter to Geolog. 

Im assuming they will be successful with this legal action, and thus if you add this cash back into the pot, IT APPEARS AS IF SSRIF IS NOW TRADING NEARLY FOR THE CASH VALUE, AND YOU GET THE 175 MILLION OUNCES FOR FREE. Not a bad deal in my book. Best of luck.

And Hey RJ, thanks for the info on the double post virus!

yesterday. He promises to include a comment about gold leasing in
his regular gold market commentary. He also agrees that leasing is
a critical factor in the gold market. The recent 4 to 5 dollar rise
in the POG is due to short covering. This should have induced
a rise in the one month lease rates, but Bart is not updating his
charts so we are all guessing here.

I will not buy gold bullion or gold equities until I see a surge
in one month lease rates. I recommend that you all do the same.
When shorts try to cover their massive overhang, they will not be
able to do it on the open market, it will likely be done initially by
leasing gold ( a little like using one credit card to cover a call on
another ) This demand for short term gold to cover will cause a
spike in lease rates before a dramatic spike in spot occurs. The same
thing happened in the silver market about the time Buffett was buying
his 129 million ozs. IMHO as always.

Thanx to MoReGoLd, we have an assessment of leftover imbalances from the close. A tremendous imbalance on the sell side.
Also re Clinton and Russia. I have to admit that Clinton is an extremely good campaigner. SO, why doesn't he take the opportunity on this trip to campaign the Russian public for Yeltsin??

And now the bill has come due. I think your life will interesting and not much fun for awhile. I know your name and I know where you live....shhhhhh... gooo goooo gaaa gaaa

Now that the big cap darlings have taken a hard hit, we should get a decent rally towards 8000 soon. But it will be a selling opportunity

Realisic: Your "realism" is most distorted, biased, and one sided. You delight in pointing out the errors of stock market bears and gold bulls. Nothing wrong with that. But why do you ignore the gross forecasting errors of late by the stock bulls? Several prominent posters here ( RJ, Mike Sheller, and Blooper ) all projected a quick mover back towards 10,000 when we were at 8200-8500.But no comment from our realistic seeker of truth. Wonder why?

You do not know what "limit up" is for gold, do you? You shout at the top of your feeble and whiny voice, but you don't even know the answer to this simple question. This will be fun. You must answer this question. If you cannot, you once again prove how ridiculously stupid your statements are. What is "limit up" for gold?

The world awaits your answer ( actually the world could care less about K2 ) . You are screaming your empty thoughts to an empty room. But you do not know.

Gooo gooo gaaa gaaaa wubby huffy wogga pooo

We have all read many reports about the looming Y2K Bug and
corresponding dangers. However, nearly none addresses the
possible dire impact the MILLENNIUM MENACE may have on
the practice of medicine - and in particular YOUR HEALTH and
that of your loved ones. Well, Dr. Hein - a practicing physician -
has generously given us a FREE consultation on the subject.

The eminent Dr. Hein asks some very penetrating questions,
like: " Do pacemakers, for example, have a Y2K connection?"
He further comments, "The answer appears to be "maybe."

His worthy consultation may be read at the following website.
As usual you need delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden"
before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/hein083198.html

Globex indives all up strongly. Bonds down. Dollar down. Yen up strongly. Metals up. Day traders straining at their leashes.

After looking further into MoreGold's figures on imbalance at the close- don't be surprised if we have a delayed open- at least with the Big Caps

Come on Gold, let's have a $15 rally ............

Still very bearish; would use any rally to sell.



Market Commentary:

Welcome to the crash wave! It was another Manic Monday on Wall St.
as the market took heed of our crash forecast and the Dow dutifully
dropped nearly 513 points ( 6.4% ) . The S&P fared a bit worse with a
plunge of nearly 70 points ( 6.8% ) . The Nasdaq was taken out and shot to
the tune of over 140 points ( 8.6% ) . All in all, Monday was a total
washout for the bulls. Many influential Wall St. "gurus" and their
clients have been completely blindsided and confused by the market
decline from the July top. Shepler Market Timer subscribers however have
had a nearly perfect roadmap to follow since the July top. Subscribers
who have been with us since that time will recall that we warned on
several occassions that when "momentum markets" top out the ensuing
decline is normally lightning fast and takes no prisoners. Bears who
wait for a strong rebound rally to go short just end up on the
sidelines, while bulls who wait for such a rally to liquidate longs just
end up holding the bag. There is no denying that the market is very
short-term oversold by many measures, and normally some sort of bounce
should be expected soon. However, we caution again that this is not a
normal market. It had run up to insane valuation levels on momentum and
emotion ( greed ) . Now the tables have turned. Downside momentum is
feeding off itself, and greed is in the process of turning to fear. The
tea leaves we are reading tell us this transformation process is not
nearly complete yet. Therefore we expect much lower prices to follow
give or take a dead-cat bounce here and there. The crash wave is not
over yet.
The most incredible aspect of Monday's trading, and the one thing
that most keeps us bearish on this market, was the OEX put/call tally at
the end of the day Monday. This ratio came in at a .97 reading. The Dow
fell 513 points, new lows registered 1209 issues, and decliners trounced
advancers by more than a 7 to 1 margin, yet speculators bought more
calls than puts on the S&P 100 ( OEX ) . Wow! Talk about complacency. And
this was no isolated incident, as speculators have continued to favor
OEX calls over puts during the nearly the entire decline off the July
highs. In fact the OEX put/call open interest ratio is .98, as more
calls are outstanding than puts in this index. This certainly does not
indicate the type of fear that is normally seen at significant bottoms.
Bulls are still in denial about the existance of this bear market, so
they keep buying te dips. They are at it again as we write this
newsletter, rallying the S&P futures over 20 points in overnight
trading. Bulls are so confident of a bottom that they cannot even wait
until morning to buy. We think they are going to suffer another severe
case of buyers remorse. Any rally at the open tomorrow would be a gift
for bears who want to add short positions.
Although we are still bearish here, there is one bright spot for
bulls. Our proprietary buy/sell indicator has finally dropped into the
buy zone. When this happens, historically the market will form a
short-term bottom within 1-2 days of this reading. The caveat here is
that market crashes also tend to occur when this indicator reaches the
buy zone. So, maybe we have another terrible Tuesday in store, followed
by a short-term rally. The complacency exhibited by the put/call ratios
mentioned above leads us to believe that we must see much lower prices
before we see any rally other than the dead-cat variety.
So, we remain with or current blockbuster Ursa trade, looking for
more bloodshed on Wall St. in the days and weeks ahead. Worsening market
internals ( especially new lows ) , and ridiculously complacent sentiment,
have us planted firmly in the bearish camp. But our buy/sell indicator
is hinting that at least a short-term low may be on tap in 1-2 days.

V O L A T I L I T Y, that's right volatility. Now we're going to see some swings in the indexes. Don't overcook the turkey, but do get the carving knives out..... Mmmmmmm Mmmmmmm good........... :- ) )

Doomed just like Gollum's great silver rally! GOLD HAS BOTTOMED!!! BIS BUYING!!! Dow selling will dominate the afternoon after a feeble attempt this morning to rally!

Indives are those little caps that go over the tire stem. Sheesh, I thought everyone knew that...

Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of snips, snails, puppydogs' tails, and Werewolf-B-Gone Brand Monster Repellent ( not for use on Presidents ) .

It seems LGB with his dozen or more handles is now talking to himself.

The pattern of the stock market moves has reversed. Time was when the market sank in the morning and rose in the afternoon ( around two to three P.M. E.S.T. due to fund buying ) . Now this pattern has reversed. We have feeble buying in the A.M. met with stiff selling to all rallies, with an especially hard hit between ( you guessed it... ) two and four in the afternoon. Mutual Fund selling to meet redemptions?!. There may be a bounce in here somewhere soon ( 24 to 72 hours ) but I haven't seen the panic selling reflected in the volume yet. Me thinks we are not done for this phase.............

Check the volume bars out.......

This is a longer term chart and notice the volatility calculations between now and '87.

Does anyone think that the CRB index is making a bottom here? Please. No falling knives analogies.............. :- )

A10 this morning.Says Malaysia close to imposing exchange controls.

First the silver push, then the DOW rally. When in the world is Gollum going to predict the end of PM equities!

I follow your comments pretty closely, as well. It makes sense to
me about your statements regarding wave-3 still in the works. See ya, Foxman

Bill Fleckenstein still bearish on Dow but thinks gold stocks are very cheap

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

in front of the tube ( that's American for telly, Nick@C ) and the
voice balloon from the news commentator says; " In a surprise twist, Clinton offered Yeltsin political asylum in the US ... and Yeltsin offered Clinton political asylum in Russia ".

( We could only hope, right ! )

With thanks to Speed this was taken from his post of 6:30 and the copy is from the Wall Street Journal.
( From Mooney ) - For those who hate endlessly wading through tons of chaff to find the grain, this, ( IMHO ) , is the grain from the tons of material printed in the last 24 hours:
"...investors saw their holdings in U.S. companies fall almost $700 billion, or 6.8%, in a single day, to about $9.6 trillion. Wilshire Associates of Los Angeles, which compiles the index, says that is the largest single-day loss of market value ever."
For emphasis folks lets repeat that last line: "...the LARGEST single-day LOSS of market value EVER."

term., What is your take on it.

The talking heads actually questioned the overnight future tradings validity this morning. The phrase painting the tape was discussed as hedge funds continued to attempt to sway the markets to the upside. I donot read charts nor do I study financials however i do watch the market everyday open to close and it is my call that this market is going lower, much lower... The mutual fund industry is in deep dodo and they will scramble to raise cash.. The hedge funds are dropping like flies as investors begin to understand risk...... it is only a matter of time until a massive gold contract unwinds and the short squeeze begins.. Just one mans opinion.......

In recent months both nave investors and youthfully innocent brokers have been saying "there will be NO PANIC if we enter a real Bear Market, because we're long-term investors." --- Even the "inimitable" Goldman Sachs investment Strategist Ms Abby Cohen blurted out yesterday, " that she is sticking to her guns."

I say, OH YEAH?!!

Human nature DOEs NOT CHANGE. Anyone can talk brave bluster when the
"Hurricane" is still 100 miles out to sea. But when they can see and feel the 150 mile winds, THEY TOO will run to hills for cover. Well, it's here! And all those hapless investors still 100% exposed to the Financial Hurricane blowing in the world's "paper" markets will INDEED PANIC as they have always done throughout history. Testament to this was the pertinent comment yesterday:

"We had real indiscriminate selling [Monday]," said Jon Olesky, head of block trading at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, who called the day "historic." He said that "the last hour was quite violent. We saw nothing short of PANIC in a lot of sell orders."

Many of Wall Street's youthful brokers are still spouting this is "NOT A BEAR MARKET, just a healthy and long needed correction." I say,
OH YEAH?!!

Trade sources stated the following market statistics after the close yesterday. Since the beginning of the year the average NYSE stock is already DOWN 38%, while the average NASDAQ stock is DOWN 48%. And it's getting worse.

If this ain't a BEAR MARKET, pray tell, WHAT IS?!!

Yesterday's carnage was nightmarish. The NASDAQ was battered down
140 points. MICROSOFT LOST NEARLY 10% OF ITS MARKET VALUE -
slashing nearly $10 off its price in one single day!

For those Bear Market Virgins out there, it might prove helpful to review a study made last year comparing the investors' darling HIGH-FLYER of 1929 to its Counter-part in the 1990s, namely MICROSOFT.

The scary study may be read at the following URL. Delete extra "en" letters In word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials/rca_msft.html

You know it is NASB when yen well up, dollar quite 'decently' down and gold simply lurkin'/hiding in the dark. What a concept.

Globex stock indices now falling rapidly before the stock market opens.

Can't believe it God I hope its true.

We are warming up the hydrazine motors now. This should be a good one!!

Read 'em and weep.

It seems that lately the Dow bulls had forgotten about Gumperson's Law, unfortunately it can also apply to Gold Bulls: Gumperson's Law: "The probability of anything happening is in inverse ratio to its desirability".

I should add that if the moves in the currencies are 'real' as they have 'cleared' the way through most resistance levels, then concievably, the dollar will next be toast, bonds will begin to come under attack, and a paradigm shift will have occurred. Perhaps gold might catch a waft of it. But, one can also expect RR and Greenie to come to the 'rescue'. Right?

Smart man that Gumperson.

Read the posts from last night. Why pay that much attention to the Globex futures overnight? Seems that trick by the PPT stopped working. Go Gold, pretty please? With sugar and cream on top? ( you have to ask gold nicely, then it responds )

Remember everyone, that IF this day turns into another massive plunge and repeats the history of 1987 there will certainly be a most opportune time to cover shorts for maximum massive profits. Keep your head while all those around you are losing theirs. "Don't be late in '98".

Sooner or later we will all learn!

"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."

- Dr. Milton Friedman, Nobel laureate in Economics

I gues they parcelled it out to the PPT!! Sorry

What other kind of markets do you know where it becomes much much easier to sell something if you raise the price.

That's about ten points a minute.

Houston, we have liftoff.

For educational purpose, could you please tell us how much is "Limit up" in Gold? How many ticks? How much in Dollar value?

Please be as precise as possible.

Thanks.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 22:53
farfel ( @TOM..where do I see GOLD...HARHARHARHARHARHARHAR ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...it's going thru the roof, TOM.

THROUGH THE F*ING ROOF!!

Take note of these words: LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.

I would like to buy at that price, really !!

Hamlet

Does anyone else see silver at 3.270!?

Any suggestions on another source for updated spot prices?

Thanks

Filler To Fritter Away the Hours in An Oft Hand Way While We Await The Gold Bulls Imminent Arrival. Kudos to Reify and his sources. Enjoy:
Home is where you hang your @
The e-mail of the species is more deadly than the mail.
A journey of a thousand sites begins with a single click.
You can't teach a new mouse old clicks.
Great groups from little icons grow.
Speak softly and carry a cell phone.
C:\ is the root of all directories.
Don't put all your hypes in one homepage.
Pentium wise; pen and paper foolish.
The modem is the message
Too many clicks spoil the browse.
The geek shall inherit the earth.
A chat has nine lives.
Don't byte off more than you can view.
Fax is stranger than fiction.
What boots up must come down.
Virtual reality is its own reward.
Modulation in all things.
A user and his leisure time are soon parted.
There's no place like http://www.home.com
Know what to expect before you connect.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice.
Speed thrills.
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach him to use the Net
and he won't bother you for weeks.

Approaching 7700.

is the steam being let out of this Gread Dow Rally...hear it?

The last time that I checked ( and that was a WHILE ago ) , limit up on the gold futures is $75/day. Check here for more info...
http://www.nymex.com/contract/gold.html

Not meant to jeer OR cheer. Just a reminder of where things were six short weeks ago: www.kitco.com Precious Metal Prices
Jul 20/98
London Fix New York
11:03 AM PM Bid Ask Change
Gold $294.65 $294.85 $294.80 $295.30 +0.55
Silver $5.3900 $5.38 $5.41 +0.03

Any thoughts as to what's going through the Wall Street boy's minds?

I see silver minus 30% Is it kitco problem ?

GC Z8December Gold 2824 +35 +1.32828 2793 19.5K
SI Z8December Silver 4755 +77 +1.64770 4605 10.6K

Gold Stocks going up steadily.

Absolutely. I would hardly call this a Great DOW Rally. This is one of those wild whipsaws you see in bear markets.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/commodities.html

Sep Silver up 10 cents to 4.72

DEAR ABBY COHEN, What do we do? Keep BUYING ???

I can see a fire out my window! What kind of fuel did you say we have in the tanks here on Gollum Airlines? Is that dangerous?

own shares enabled PPT to push s & p futures overnite, I guess.

Big Money selling on rallies..

wow!!!! what a rally!!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah! Looks like Gollum is once again the greatest of contrary indicators!! Anybody who follows his advice had better weep!!

Dang those mechanics! You told 'em liquid OXYGEN and hydrazine, didn't you?
I think they got the tanks mixed up and used liquid NITROGEN instead...

DOWn we gooooooo.....

Houston, we may have a problem here.

Forget the fire out your window, I keep looking up to see a monster ripping 30% of the silver wing off!!

CNBC talked about gold and "been a long time since we have seen gold as a flight to safety"!!!!!

SAFE HAVEN!!! UP $3.50!!! The coinversion process has now begun!!!!

has any one heard anything about rumors that japan is
dumping $us and buying gold - cjk -

All:

It looks like the dollar is starting to get into trouble. It is unclear whether or not this is a G7 affair or whether or not it is a flight from US assets. Given the strength of the US bond market I'd lean toward G7 intervention.

The Yen can move really fast when there are so many billions of dollars in carry trade which can get into trouble very, very, quickly.

The British Pound is bumping against long term resistance. Two days ago we hit 168 and change only to see a sharp selloff. 168.50 is the top of a range which goes back around a year. If we take it out, look for a spike up.

Gold is not doing as well as one would like given the performance of the Yen. The 3% move in the Yen has only generated a 1+ % move in gold. However, the XAU is looking rather bouncy.

If the pound and DM and Yen all break to the upside it will be safe to own the yellow metal and other commodities. Copper is looking particularly good today as it has made a strong reversal off yesterdays breakdown.

Perhaps we have seen the bottom of the stuff market.

Every ANALyst must be saying "Be Calm, Stay the Course" while putting their own market sell orders

Don't think this has been posted. Last night on CNN Steve Forbes was saying that "they" need to get the price of Gold back up. About fell out of my chair. Maybe these dogs I own ( ryo, eco ) will hunt: ) Also about a week and a half ago I called Fidelity to get a redemption form to take some cash out of my self directed IRA brokerage account. Still haven't seen the form. Could they be taking their sweet time? naw.... Intent to buy more physical if it can be found.

GOLD UP $3.70!!! DOW DOWN 88!!! Gullibleum still gasping for O2! Hehhhheh!

AND PLUNGING along with Gollum airlines!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Read 'em and weep!!!!

At 10:14 it was down another 94 points.
Hussa-Vidirallalla! What a fun Tuesday morning!

DOW: 100 points up, 110 points down, all in 18 minutes.
That's volatility.

Anybody got a guess where we land today?

MG ( Go Gold! )

We have brokerage accounts with Schwab, Waterhouse, and Jack White. Schwab and Waterhouse were very sloow this am; and I gave up on them after 10 minutes to access my account for trading ( wasn't going to trade ) ; Jack White was very fast about 2 minutes to ready to enter a trade.

problem at Kitco?

Maaaannnn, look at that yen GOOoooooooo! Dollar doin' some serious stumbling! Gold sittin' in a corner wrackin' itself.

Bill Gates gonna lose a few billion today. Nasdaq may really get slaughtered.

This would kick commodities up and perk up other currencies that would get rid of global financial forest fires that IMF has created by their inept and illegitimate policies and demands.

Wild market swings bring derivatives into play. The powers that be best get control or some counterparties will go under and poooof....how many trillion just gone.

I'm say a prayer for control nad hold the physical. Yes.

Tom

No problem for Gates. According to SEC fillings, since May 98 Gates has sold $2.5 billion worth of his shares. He has been getting ready for thgis.

Oh, here it is. Just a lose wire. Let me connect this...

I caught that, too. But I took as a mistake on the part of the older, white-haired gentleman. We'll see if he has a job tomorrow.

Our brave space pilot let the cat out of the bag with his hydrazine and blast off. He is testing a new GOLDEN rocket. Hydrazine is mostly used for attitude control jets in outer space!!!!!!!!!

those who say that...CNBC called gold a flight to safety this morning...

Midas -- I think anything they did to lower rates would probably be way TOO little and way TOO late. I might expect it to spark a couple markets though and gold might actually take a new track, up the side of the mountain.

Mechanics working hard to repair that engine on Gollum Airlines. The turbulence is making me quezy.

Those hydrazine engines are noted for their volatility.

After massive volatility the PREM starts to go wild.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
Click on $PREM.X

From - 7 to + 15 a jump of 22 points.

Who hit the button???
Who is on TV?

The answer to your question of the strongest currency in the world this year would be the Korean Won I think. Let me know if I am wrong. As for gold it will be a slow rise if this is the Salvigson scenario unfolding until the hedge funds who shorted the metal are forced to cover because of what they invested in. If hedge funds were shorting gold as a source of cash and they bought russian bonds with the money somebody is in trouble. The key thing to watch is the dollar. IF it goes down the fix is in and metals will do well. IF it goes up then the fed is saying piss on the world domestic concerns out weigh everything else and the metals are in trouble. The fed wont do that and gold will rally.

Seeing some hesitation in some metals stocks as market bounces back toward surface a bit. Of course by the time this is posted it could be plus or minus a couple hundred. Any comments on buy points major gold stocks, or HUI stocks. I don't type fast enough for this market!

I see you're showing your love of gold etc by trying to develop the art of flying underground. Might I suggest the addition of a drill bit on the nose of the plane - could help. Or perhaps you might start working on ensuring a good flight for that Golden Rocket you were talking about a while ago, if it didn't already take off without you. Do be careful with this flying underground business - not so safe. We need you on the job.

says CNNfn.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9809/01/gold_wg/

There, that's working better.

Tom

Is this Kitco Silver spot correct - silver down $1.39?

Frail -- No.

There's still a few ups and downs left. Hopefully things will steady out in a bit. Exciting, yes?

Veteran Gold Stock Specialist/Broker Jack Weber rode the shiny yellow In the mid 1970's from $35/oz to over $700/oz. in January 1980. He is again foaming at the mouth bullish again on the noble metal - especially in light of the loomin MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Gold Specialist Weber observes: " I do believe the Y2K Problem will afford enormous profits to those who hold a substantial percentage of their assets in that truly precious metal."

Furthermore, he says "Banks: "That Year-2000 software bugs could cause
problems in the nation's banking system is hardly in doubt..."

His degree of gold bullishness is only exceeded by his degree of bearishness for common stocks. He asserts "Wall Street: Not even so much as hinting at Y2K, international economist Paul Krugman said in a Reuter's article: "sell US stocks ( they ) really look overvalued right now... Wall Street's bull run is irrational exuberance."

Indeed analyst Weber has the proven critical-eye and the Midas touch. The enlightening study may be read at the following URL. Delete extra "en" letters In word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/weber083198.html

I am showing Dec gold down .90 at 281.70, this now 12 minutes old. Like I said before, anyone buying gold stocks here, what and what price?

Kitco is posting it down $1.30 in two places!

eblm@mci2000.com is my mail. I haven't been reading kitco much lately........ ( too many self proclaimed prophets and all ) ........and I cannot find your latest post to me. Mail me. I will respond.

I did receive the mail from Aurator. Thanks Salty.

This is the first time I could even get into Kitco. ....... ( first it's my 'puta .....then it's Bart 'puta.........hmmmmmmmmm ) ........and now I gotta read through CRAP from some idjit-sophmoric-gold-cheerleader who has some sort of penis envy for me. Ho hum..........I will respond no more to it............been there.......done that...


away....to grind
yeye

By Charley Reese
of The Sentinel Staff

Published in The Orlando Sentinel, August 20, 1998

Baby boomers who missed the Great Depression are
going to be treated by fate to their very own, or so it
looks to me.

Whether it will be as severe as the 1930s Depression, I
don't know, but that's what is starting, slowly but surely.
Production capacity now exceeds demand. Too many factories
throughout the world are making more stuff than people want
or can afford to buy.

It's that ``can afford'' element of demand that confuses
people whose vision is blurred by greed. Gee, 1 billion
Chinese customers. No, there's just more than 1 billion
Chinese people, but considerably fewer who can afford to
buy much of anything.

That's why people can starve while grain rots in storage
bins. How can people starve when there's so much food in
the world? Because they can't afford to buy it, that's why.
That's also the fallacy of the
don't-worry-about-population-increase crowd. Why, look at
the statistics on food production. Well, look at them. But
what counts is what people can afford to buy, not how much
somebody 5,000 miles away can produce.

Let me pause and give you a great tip that will help you
wade through the post-modern horse manure that is being
mass manufacturered by special pleaders in this country.

Statistics count things and measure things. They do not and
cannot prove anything. Furthermore, they are abstract
mental concepts. They are not real. Wheat in Nebraska is
real. A starving child in Sudan is real. Statistically, you
can show that food production equals food needs, but that
has nothing, and I mean nothing, to do with the wheat in
Nebraska and a dying child in Sudan.

So what happens when demand falls is that the
producers begin to cut prices. As they cut prices,
bidding for the shrinking number of buyers, they have to
start cutting expenses, which means layoffs. Some go
bankrupt. More lost jobs. Every lost job is a reduction in
demand because people out of work can't afford to buy much.
That's a truth American corporations seem to have
forgotten. They seem to long for the day when they can
produce their product without any workers. They do not seem
to understand that if they ever do, they will also be
producing a product for which there are no customers.

And, as the supply of jobs shrink relative to the number of
people who need jobs, the price of labor is bid down so
even when you get a job, you don't make as much. More
reduction in demand. So many married women work today not
because of feminism but because it's harder and harder for
a single paycheck to maintain a decent standard of living.

Don't worry too much about the Dow Jones index.
Heck, that's only 30 stocks of blue-chip companies.
Watch how many stocks go down as opposed to how
many go up. Watch commodity prices. They are way
down. Oil, as of this writing, is about $11 a barrel.
That's below what it costs an American oil producer to pump
it. That tells you there isn't a great demand for oil right
now.

Here's a told-you-so: Keep that $11 a barrel oil in mind
and go back to 1976-77 when Jimmy Carter and his Central
Intelligence Agency were telling the American people that
the world was fast running out of oil and it would soon be
unaffordable. The Independent Petroleum producers pointed
out some years ago that American politicians have been
proclaiming the imminent end of oil production periodically
since the turn of the century. Kind of like those
end-of-the-world guys.

Anyway, what you Baby Boomers will discover is that
depression means the price of everything goes down --
both products and labor. The cycle won't start again
until there is some balance between production and
demand. Contrary to popular belief, Franklin Roosevelt
didn't end the Great Depression. Adolf Hitler and World War
II ended it. Maybe you'll get your own great war, too.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Massive buying this morning?

Put the Dow chart on 5 minutes
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

Rally time?

Been looking for info on margin calls in market, came across this on SI, thought it might be interesting:

To: James Strauss ( 19756 )
From: Orbit
Tuesday, Sep 1 1998 10:43AM ET
Reply # of 19757

FYI, just talked to my broker and he expects the weakness to continue throughout the morning due to a continuation of margin calls from yesterday. Their margin dept. is on serious overload from what he tells me.
In regards to the market drop predicting a recession, the market has a prediction rate of 25%. So I guess well have to wait and see.
If we can't even get a bounce from a 7.7% S&P drop the day before, there is serious concern about where the economy is heading...

Regards,
Nick

bookmark it.
http://www.monex.com/prices.html
away...
waitingfortherally

I noticed in the paper this AM that the discount rate was up a 1/2 pt from 5.5 to 6.0 and that the Bonds are trading lower.

Has there been a rate increase or a tightening?

Back to work.

HighRise

.

rhody -- Silver UP. Bouncing between UP 8 and UP 11 cents currently.

Kitco's reading about $1.50 too low.

for a couple of decades.

AOL has Dec Gold up $3.40 at $282.30. Is that reading too delayed to be any good and is it really now going down since AOL last updated?

Let's see, we've accomodated a good deal of the margin calls from last Friday, yesterdays won't be due till Thursday or so. I guess the next thing is to whipsaw the amatuer shorts.

Did your mama ever mention that day trading wasn't for the faint of heart?

Goldilocks -- Barts gold number is MUCH more current at this time!

RRRRRAAAALLLLPH!

Ugh. I don't suppose we're gonna hit any smooth air today...

-EJ

that Clinton's been arrested in Moscow, and the Russians are holding him for ransom.....or maybe offering to keep him if we pay enough.

No smooth air today, bubba! This classic whipsaw action. Like shooting the rapids of the mighty Colorado. Only real two fisted scarred and torn bear market traders walk these waters. I wonder how pale the wet behind the ears Wall Street fundmanagers are lookiing today?

Where'd that Golden head go? 7666 lucky seven plus the beast.

This is just the start the Japanese will BLOW OFF AMERICAN TREASURIES!

WHEN THE MARKET falls as quickly as it did on Monday, psychology is as much to blame as economics. So for a clue about the market's next move, we asked our readers how low the Dow would go before it hits bottom.
The good news: A sizable majority ( 69% ) of respondents think we're within 500 points of the bottom. But only 25% believe the worst is over. What does that say about the market? The Dow may fall further, but even if it does we may not see the kind of surprised panic selling that can cause a crash.

Booby Baby Boy

Ohhhhhhhhhh. Hes sooooo cuuuuute! Such a BIG boy. Looket his chubby little belly. Oohhhhh look at him giggle. Ahhhhwwwww.

So, baby boy they gave you some clues on k1, but you will not find the answer there.

What is limit up for gold?

Once you get your diaper changed and your bottom powdered, maybe you could answer that?

oleman . .If they take this thing to new highs, and they just might, ( at least that
what topx thinks, andhe's pretty durn good ) Joe and jane will not sell til
they have lost at least HALF their equity.

oleman . . avg MF down about 30% off its high, and joe was ready to sell some TODAY.
Now they rally it WAY up so, next time, jow holds on as it dives thru 50%
before he STARTS to sell. Man! They're GOOD!!!!

oleman . . alternate: ( temple can, so can I ) . This is all there is and they slam it
right here.: ) I'm flat futures. Dunno.

wilddave . Amazing. They rally it for the options open. People cover on the open,
getting us another up bar, then slam.

flashgo . . amazing. i timed that one nicely. put in an order to buy 20 sep 76 puts
( djx ) , and they would be nicely in the money now. but........no........the
brokers lost the order!!!!! unbellievable.

Whump! Air pocket. Man, I just love this hydrazine. Especially the fumes.

No guts, no glory.

REF: "The Hatt ( Take note Long Bond Selloff/ Yen Improving!!!!! ) "

Point well taken. With the US bond market at RECORD HIGH PRICES, and the
US dollar falling very rapidly againsT the Yen, the BOJ would be committing Hari-Kiri if they did NOT dump their approximately US$300 Billion in Uncle Sam's paper. If the BOJ hesitates in executing the divesture, the Nippon population will eventually discover the blunder, leading to yet another change in Japanese PM - and by "PM" I don't mean
precious metals ( :- ) ) - The populous will not ask for resignations, but demand Hari-Kiri for the governement's gross negligence and UNFORGIVABLE STUPIDITY.

And there are numerous studies concluding much of the procedes of SELLING
US T-Bonds would be re-invested in GOLD.

CURRENCIES: Big three surprisingly steady

What is up with the currency markets? For so long a byword for irrationality and excess, they have been remarkably calm during the current turmoil. This is not, of course, true of emerging markets or commodity currencies like Canada ( see below ) . But the pillars of the system - dollar, yen and D-Mark - have been relatively steady.

This may seem surprising. After all, Germany's near-neighbour Russia is collapsing while Japan is in crisis. Surely the dollar should be stronger? There are three reasons why it is not. First, as the dollar is the main reserve currency, many countries are supporting their own pressured currencies by selling the greenback. Second, many speculative trades across the globe were financed with cheap, borrowed yen. As asset prices across the globe have plunged, such traders are required to meet margin calls, forcing them to buy yen. Arguably bigger than both factors is the turn in Japanese capital flows. Japanese institutions are repatriating money to bolster their balance sheets. And even if Japanese markets look desperate, the incentive to invest abroad is hardly appetising at present.

Yen bears continue to believe economic malaise is a recipe for one-way weakness. But the dollar has its weaknesses too - such as proximity to Latin America, possibly the next emerging market conflagration. Meanwhile, with Europe about to embark upon monetary union, the D-Mark is not the bastion it once was. The upshot of all this may be a continuance of the current stalemate, and possible further support for sterling and the Swiss franc - recent beneficiaries of the safe-haven tag.

Almost time to drop the booster and fire the second stage.

As soon as they load, I copy/paste them into a MS Word document. That way I don't have to load the previous time slot again. I don't even have to wait until the entirety of the current time slot gets done loading.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - at least around here seems to be getting worse.
The talking heads last night were saying that if stock market concerns about "fear" and "panic" leak into consumer buying then we will be in trouble. Especially when businesses sense this fear and cut down on their own spending. Fellow Kitcoites, it sure seems like that is happening. Maybe it is because this town has been there before and is gunshy. But even the tourists spent less this summer. It will takes months before "official figures" finally admit to it - but our depression has begun. I will find it hard to unload my inventory, even with deep discounts, before it pocketbooks really tighten up. Christmas this year will be a crapper. I have been cutting down my spending for months - and regretting what little I have spent. Now I am getting really tight.
I AM BEGINNING TO GET SCARED!

All:
I am posting the following for any open-minded among you who can still relate to a few well-expressed thoughts after the brow-beating we have all suffered from the likes of RJ and LGB lately. Longtimers among us will recognize the author at his best.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 02:39
farfel ( OLDMAN & GOLD... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have said in the past, I believe the Oldman is a shrewd trader, although he was late in recognizing the Bear Market this summer. However, I remain firmly convinced that his assessment of gold and silver is completely off the mark.

As I have oft mentioned in the past, I always felt that goldbugs would fail to recognize the paradigm shift when it finally arrived. In fact, to date, I have been proven correct.

The paradigm shift in general equities was NOT sparked by goldbugs nor bears. It was sparked by ultra-bull Ralph Acampora...it took a major stock Bull analyst to concretize the paradigm shift we are now witnessing. No surprise there. Goldbugs and chronic bears are members of a minority and I always contended that the paradigm shift MUST be instigated by a change of heart in the leading members of the majority, namely the general equities bulls. Why? Because, essentially, goldbugs and bears have had next to ZERO credibility this past decade. Sharp analysts like Puetz have beem mocked and derided an dismissed as effective retards.

On the other hand, a fellow like Acampora has been heralded as one of the Stock Bull's demigods. Not because his analysis is so astute or well-educated but simply because, with a combination of corrupt government intervention in the markets and a good deal of luck, he has proven to be correct. So, when a fellow who commands such reverence amongst stock bulls turns bearish, THAT is a major event!

As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general market. So discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping their gold equities....in some cases, even their physical. Again, this is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift. However, it should come as no surprise that a time lag exists between the start of a general equities bear and a real substantive gold bull.

First, people must ACCEPT the reality of the general equities bear. Once acceptance takes place, then they must do some research and investigation as to alternative bearish investments. Naturally, their own financial advisors push bonds and Utes as flights to safety, at the same time continuing to extoll key bullish investments. However, once these various, purported flights to safety prove to be as susceptible to a downslide as equities, then these same disillusioned investors will begin to listen to the "fringe and/or peripheral analysts."

For example, since I have been bearish for some time, as such I am a member of this lunatic fringe. I am well aware of the standard reactions to this "lunatic" bearishness. People raise their eyes and look far off into space when you attempt to explain the paradigm shift that is occurring and will continue to develop. Yet, now I am seeing evidence of the paradigm shift slowly developing into a populist fever. I am receiving more and more phone calls from people who, in the past, listened politely to my analyses at best or simply chose to cut off all communication with me, regarding me as a doomsaying oddball. Today, these people are calling me up for opinions and analysis. Their own investment advisors appear uncertain, confused, and nervous. They no longer recommend equities with heart-felt conviction...they're not really certain about bonds. They're not really sure Clinton is good for the country or ever was. Basically, as they see their world crumble around them, they're not sure if up is up or down is down anymore.

So, people are calling and they're asking, "Where do I buy gold and silver? How should I buy gold and silver?" It is really an amazing phenomenon to see, given that so many of these individuals would normally have shunned me if I walked into a room.

Yet, when they call me, they find that nothing has changed. I still speak with full conviction that PM's are the ONLY flight to safety in the new economic devolution spreading across the world. I still extoll various gold and silver producers as inevitable beneficiaries of this flight to safety. I still state categorically that NOT all paper will burn in a market crash...it NEVER did before, why now? Nothing has changed in my perspective. I am solid as a rock ( as Bob Seger would say ) and people gravitate toward analysts with pure unqualified conviction. It is all part of the paradigm shift.

Falling demand for gold in Asia or Europe? Falling silver demand in India? Big F*ing Deal!! It will be more than made up for by an amazing surge of PM demand right here in N. America and Europe as people clamber for an investment alternative to collapsing equities and bonds. Rest assured that the bonds bubble will burst, independent of the direction of interest rates. With an equities market collapse, many companies will become insolvent and unable to make payments on their bonds. Many statea and local governments will also become insolvent and fail on their payments. The resultant panic in the bonds market will prove devastating.

As an alternative investment which acts as a hedge against global currency chaos, GOLD and SILVER are it! Deflation, when it triggers pandemic currency crises, CANNOT result in the negation of gold and silver in the long run. There simply are no other historical flights to safety available.

Finally, One thing I speak of with the utmost conviction is this: last Thursday, the gold shorts piled on when gold broke technical support at 278. It was NO accident. Gold was ALLOWED to break technical support; it did not do so on its own momentum or of its volition. Very shortly, we will see a consortium of CB's, power players, and institutions bid gold through the roof. So, unfortunately, the upsurge in gold shorting was a major and fatal mistake for the funds that did so and, shortly ( I would guess within several weeks ) , they will ALL be wiped out.

Repeat. They will ALL be wiped out.

I say this without qualification and without a shadow of a doubt.

GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up.

Yes, it is true that commodities fall during deflations. However, what the PM shorts never fully understood is this: gold and silver never were, and are not, and never will be mere commodities.

There never was a NEW PARADIGM.

Just go ask Acampora.

Thanks.

F*

All:
I am posting the following for any open-minded among you who can still relate to a few well-expressed thoughts after the brow-beating we have all suffered from the likes of RJ and LGB lately. Longtimers among us will recognize the author at his best.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 02:39
farfel ( OLDMAN & GOLD... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have said in the past, I believe the Oldman is a shrewd trader, although he was late in recognizing the Bear Market this summer. However, I remain firmly convinced that his assessment of gold and silver is completely off the mark.

As I have oft mentioned in the past, I always felt that goldbugs would fail to recognize the paradigm shift when it finally arrived. In fact, to date, I have been proven correct.

The paradigm shift in general equities was NOT sparked by goldbugs nor bears. It was sparked by ultra-bull Ralph Acampora...it took a major stock Bull analyst to concretize the paradigm shift we are now witnessing. No surprise there. Goldbugs and chronic bears are members of a minority and I always contended that the paradigm shift MUST be instigated by a change of heart in the leading members of the majority, namely the general equities bulls. Why? Because, essentially, goldbugs and bears have had next to ZERO credibility this past decade. Sharp analysts like Puetz have beem mocked and derided an dismissed as effective retards.

On the other hand, a fellow like Acampora has been heralded as one of the Stock Bull's demigods. Not because his analysis is so astute or well-educated but simply because, with a combination of corrupt government intervention in the markets and a good deal of luck, he has proven to be correct. So, when a fellow who commands such reverence amongst stock bulls turns bearish, THAT is a major event!

As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general market. So discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping their gold equities....in some cases, even their physical. Again, this is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift. However, it should come as no surprise that a time lag exists between the start of a general equities bear and a real substantive gold bull.

First, people must ACCEPT the reality of the general equities bear. Once acceptance takes place, then they must do some research and investigation as to alternative bearish investments. Naturally, their own financial advisors push bonds and Utes as flights to safety, at the same time continuing to extoll key bullish investments. However, once these various, purported flights to safety prove to be as susceptible to a downslide as equities, then these same disillusioned investors will begin to listen to the "fringe and/or peripheral analysts."

For example, since I have been bearish for some time, as such I am a member of this lunatic fringe. I am well aware of the standard reactions to this "lunatic" bearishness. People raise their eyes and look far off into space when you attempt to explain the paradigm shift that is occurring and will continue to develop. Yet, now I am seeing evidence of the paradigm shift slowly developing into a populist fever. I am receiving more and more phone calls from people who, in the past, listened politely to my analyses at best or simply chose to cut off all communication with me, regarding me as a doomsaying oddball. Today, these people are calling me up for opinions and analysis. Their own investment advisors appear uncertain, confused, and nervous. They no longer recommend equities with heart-felt conviction...they're not really certain about bonds. They're not really sure Clinton is good for the country or ever was. Basically, as they see their world crumble around them, they're not sure if up is up or down is down anymore.

So, people are calling and they're asking, "Where do I buy gold and silver? How should I buy gold and silver?" It is really an amazing phenomenon to see, given that so many of these individuals would normally have shunned me if I walked into a room.

Yet, when they call me, they find that nothing has changed. I still speak with full conviction that PM's are the ONLY flight to safety in the new economic devolution spreading across the world. I still extoll various gold and silver producers as inevitable beneficiaries of this flight to safety. I still state categorically that NOT all paper will burn in a market crash...it NEVER did before, why now? Nothing has changed in my perspective. I am solid as a rock ( as Bob Seger would say ) and people gravitate toward analysts with pure unqualified conviction. It is all part of the paradigm shift.

Falling demand for gold in Asia or Europe? Falling silver demand in India? Big F*ing Deal!! It will be more than made up for by an amazing surge of PM demand right here in N. America and Europe as people clamber for an investment alternative to collapsing equities and bonds. Rest assured that the bonds bubble will burst, independent of the direction of interest rates. With an equities market collapse, many companies will become insolvent and unable to make payments on their bonds. Many statea and local governments will also become insolvent and fail on their payments. The resultant panic in the bonds market will prove devastating.

As an alternative investment which acts as a hedge against global currency chaos, GOLD and SILVER are it! Deflation, when it triggers pandemic currency crises, CANNOT result in the negation of gold and silver in the long run. There simply are no other historical flights to safety available.

Finally, One thing I speak of with the utmost conviction is this: last Thursday, the gold shorts piled on when gold broke technical support at 278. It was NO accident. Gold was ALLOWED to break technical support; it did not do so on its own momentum or of its volition. Very shortly, we will see a consortium of CB's, power players, and institutions bid gold through the roof. So, unfortunately, the upsurge in gold shorting was a major and fatal mistake for the funds that did so and, shortly ( I would guess within several weeks ) , they will ALL be wiped out.

Repeat. They will ALL be wiped out.

I say this without qualification and without a shadow of a doubt.

GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up.

Yes, it is true that commodities fall during deflations. However, what the PM shorts never fully understood is this: gold and silver never were, and are not, and never will be mere commodities.

There never was a NEW PARADIGM.

Just go ask Acampora.

Thanks.

F*

Houston, booster away, second stage ignited.

"Then Mahathir rocked the stock market when he said investors would now have to keep their money in shares for at least a year to prevent the flow of destabilising ``hot money.''

That cut the legs out from under an already wobbly stock market which spun to a new 10-year low, shedding more than 13 percent in 2- hours of confused afternoon trade." ( Reuters )

I beleive the author of the article is absolutely wrong on one point and partially correct on another. Why so many hold contempt for baby boomers is beyond me. I wonder if the author is a pre or a post boomer or perhaps just a looser boomer?

His statement that production capacity exceeds demand is backed by nothing. If you look at the demographics for the US and Asia you would see, with the coming growth in living people at their prime earning and spending years, that production capacity is far from meeting the demand that will materialize over the next year plus.

However, the analogy to what happened in 1930 will be absolutely correct in about 8 years in the US. If you look at the demographics of the US in 1929 the ratio of people who turned 45 in 29 versus 30 is about 8 to 1. It did not recover for about 8 years. This difference in people hitting their prime earning and spending years is the major difference between now and then.

If you look at the number of Merikans turning 47 this year as compared to future years you would see that its at a ratio of about 1.1 to 1.2 times each previous year from 1999 right through 2007! The picture for most of Asia is very similar. Spending will resume in earnest right after the Japan mess is cleared up.

Based on the demographics of Merikans in their prime earning and spending years the mother of all depressions will occur in the US starting in about 2008 and lasting for about 15 years!

Its been said frequently here that gold will pop when panic comes. I still think that panic will be induced by the issues Y2K brings us and not much else, although the massive short position that exists in gold worldwide ( which I have learned about through this group ) does intrigue me.

Harry Dent ( http://www.hsdent.com ) says the market bottoms at 7100 to 7300 after Japan vaporizes then its time to jump back in. I believe Y2K will put a crimp in things on the road to new highs and that everyone holding the golden will prosper enormously.

Will

running low due to that last vertical climb.

Tom

Abbey Cohen is betting the ranch by upping her balanced equity account allocation to 72% from 65%. She's putting her investor's money where her mouth is.

SI=Z8] DECEMBER SILVER RALLIES 3.4% AMID SHARP DECLINE IN U.S. SUPPLY

http://www.smartmoney.com/smt/pundits/news/index.cfm?story=19980901

Second stage away. We will now coast for about an hour before we light up the third stage. I did tell you about the third stage, didn't I?

There has been much talk of this trend in recent months and vronsky alludes and as Gianni Dioro has repeated it in his 11:37, "...Japanese institutions are repatriating money to bolster their balance sheets..." , I would just like to give the group some minor personal input from my own turf on this matter. Many of you know that my 'day-time' profession is in the field of selling real estate in the Toronto area. Recently ( few months back ) I was asked to appraise a home in this area for a Korean Bank that was folding their Toronto office and packing the local pres. and family back home. The home was worth about $1,000,000. Canadian. Just last week I inspected a home for my buyers that had come on the market in the $550,000. range. The seller? The Sakura Bank. They have owned this home and had their exec living in it since 1988. Multiply these moves world-wide and then think of the effect the Asian crisis will eventually have on N.A. Of course we all know from reading the papers that the Asian crisis is having absolutely NO effect in America at the present - don't we?

There is an notice posted on TV the says "Market Curbs in Effect". Yet no talking head dares to mention it, much less explain what it means.

Does anyone know?

Good analisys. I wonder if the new paradigm applies to "peak earning years"? In the past ( l950 to present ) the peak earning years were indeed in the wage earners later years ( after age 50 ) . As a reorganized baby boomer, my earnings have been cut by 75%.. I hope your analysis is correct and we can postpone this depression another l0 years but from a very personal perspective, it has already begun.

Your long post of last nice was a respectable reality check to the wildly misguided notions presented by a poster who holds fast to fiat currency as a system supreme...which it is not. It truly is a "killing machine", and will continue to be until the day arrives that we can survive upon fiat food and fiat shelter. There is diminishing incentives ( whether conscious or subconscious--it matters not ) to labor productively in excess when the excesses ( which are surely earmarked for one's feeble years ) cannot be safeguarded. Like being paid in milk...the logistics to maintain your "wealth" over time become an all-consuming effort as milk left unattended will spoil after a short time. So it is with fiat money.

There is so much more to it, that I provide a disservice with any attempt to counter any delusion to the contrary. Perhaps it is for each to rediscover on his own, as man has been force-fed this meal so long he no longer yearns for good food for lack of awareness. D.A., it is good to know that not all at this table eat what is put before them.

While the decline of the markets is unfortunate, such is the fate of castles built on sand...or in the sky, such as it is. Foolish to blame the bedrock, or those that know sound building practices.

been a long time, and although Farfel is not a trader, and errs on
short term specifics, I think he is bang on as far as fundamentals
and long term trends are concerned. I miss him here on K1.

Farfel, if you are lurking out there, I wish you well.

Second stage away. We will now coast for about an hour before we light up the third stage. I did tell you about the third stage, didn't I?

I think production capacity capacity is in for a shock.

Demand will dry up as money evaporates.
This boom we have had has been liquidity driven.
And now this trend is reversing.
Cyber-debt is imploding.

We will have to wait a few years to observe the outcome.
But I believe the wheels have been set in motion.

China's factories are overloaded.
How many cars on your American roads?

I think the view many have going forward.
Is derived from the top of a pinacle.
Sure it looks good up here.
But when you go down the other side.
The view has changed much.

Time will tell.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SEX ON SUNDAYS
http://x2.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=386631312&CONTEXT=904666279.304545793&hitnum=9

Isn't Friday the day Starr comes forward???

Too late for scare tactics
http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/98083165CE

will we again see the late sell off mentioned in your 8:28???????

will we again see the late sell off mentoned in your 8:28???????

will we again see the late sell off mentioned in your 8:28???????

will we again see the late sell off mentioned in your 8:28???????

If Dec gold should 'deign' to break above 283, I'm expecting a nice move on up to/into the next resistance at/above 285. But I also wonder if it'll fill the gap at 280 first. Nice move in silver. Hell, nice move in stox!

Houston, we are standing by for third stage ignition.

Your long post of last nice was a respectable reality check to the wildly misguided notions presented by a poster who holds fast to fiat currency as a system supreme...which it is not. It truly is a "killing machine", and will continue to be until the day arrives that we can survive upon fiat food and fiat shelter. There is diminishing incentives ( whether conscious or subconscious--it matters not ) to labor productively in excess when the excesses ( which are surely earmarked for one's feeble years ) cannot be safeguarded. Like being paid in milk...the logistics to maintain your "wealth" over time become an all-consuming effort as milk left unattended will spoil after a short time. So it is with fiat money.

There is so much more to it, that I provide a disservice with any attempt to counter any delusion to the contrary. Perhaps it is for each to rediscover on his own, as man has been force-fed this meal so long he no longer yearns for good food for lack of awareness. D.A., it is good to know that not all at this table eat whatever is put before them.

While the decline of the markets is unfortunate, such is the fate of castles built on sand...or in the sky, such as it is. Foolish to blame the bedrock, or those that know sound building practices.

From the Kitco price quotes page: "Please note: Silver price is approximately $4.70-$4.80 USD. Please ignore what our page is showing if it is out of that range."

http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html

"Houston, we have a problem..."

Spud

Tom

have no clue what is going on...and from listening to the television both financial and regular media neither do they...if those people are the experts I pity people in the market more than I did before...

Both have been rising, I suspect it is due to hedge fund short covering

"Tom's Take"

http://www.
dejanews.com/dnquery.xp?search=word&defaultOp=and&query=%7ea%20 ( tbenjami@island.net ) %20%26%20%7eg%20 ( comp.software.year-2000 ) &svcclass=dnserver&ST=PS

You will need to resplice the url.

Read
Credibility
Tom's Take - part 1 - 1 part
Tom's Take - part 2 - 3 parts
Tom's Take - part 3 - 3 parts
Tom's Take - part 4 - 4 parts
Road Warrior - four parts

Well worth the effort for this lucid view on the coming Y2k effect.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Crisis-hit Asia puts euro currency on the back-burner
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/more/cahners/11368/3720645/9

the drawdown in COMEX silver stocks? Thanx in advance.

PHinLA,

Thanks for bringing farfels view to those like myself who missed it. Though I think farfel got caught up in some nasty vilification and muckraking, I have long valued his more sober communications ( and have refrained from posting since the Summer of our discontent produced a food fight on this site ) , even though I believe his enthusiasm for gold might exceed mine for the near future. Having said that, I hope everyone is aware that Steve Forbes made an interesting argument that gold has proven to be an accurate barometer of the worldwide deflation we have experienced. He pointed out that golds 100+ decline since the Winter of 1997 has foreshadowed the inevitable decline of equities. He stressed that the Fed must force the price of gold up, arguing that the Fed will move soon to lower rates and pump in much needed liquidity to save us from deflations grip.

Well, I don't know why Houston doesn't answer. I'm not going to wait all day. I think I'll just go ahead and push that button and see what happens.

Forbes Magazine columnist, author and international economist, Dr. Gary Shilling foresees continuing ASIAN CONTAGION.

"With or without devaluation in China, with or without meaningful government stimulus and economic revival in Japan, one thing is clear. The economic and financial health of the many developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America that have been infested by the Asian flu has deteriorated significantly. As a result, they will cease borrowing abroad for big national projects and instead scrounge for money to service their immense foreign debts, with or without IMF help."

Europe And Canada Are in the Same Boat

If you think that the Asian crisis is a much bigger problem for the US than other developed countries, think again. True, Asian lands send more of their exports to the US and Japan, but those are the globe's two biggest economies. Other developed countries get similar shares in relation to their GDP. Continental European countries tend to be more closed to Asian imports than the US, but they will end up with more goods coming in as prices drop.

"The world has been on the verge of deflation, and the Asian crisis probably pushed it over the edge. The Asian drama, including Japan and China as key players, is still on stage. Even if the play has reached its low point, it is unlikely to revive fast enough to prevent severe consequences elsewhere. And if a region that accounts for a quarter of the worlds output and trade and a majority of its expected growth is in trouble, the world is in trouble."

For Dr. Shilling's full report see URL below -- it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/shilling083198.html

I agree completely with you in that this last 9 years of expansion has been liquidity driven. The world is awash in cash. And there has been a corresponding population to create from it and consume from it.

I also agree completely with you in that the current view is from atop the pinnacle. However, there is one higher pinnacle to be attained in the US ( if you look at the demographics of 47 year olds in the US ) . There are similar pinnacles to come in most Asian countries.

We are currently at the transition from the end of the second "wave" of US boomers turning 47 and the beginning of the third and final wave.

A little profit taking, some win, some loose. Spiced with the situation in Russia and Japan. It will clear in a few months. Just in time for us to begin contemplation ( and observation ) of Y2K problems.

Will

The powers to be have obviously called for a news blackout as a means to damper fear... Am predicting violence to begin in Russia this weekend as its citizens say enough is enough! Japan has declared war on the USD and we will hear more about that this weekend...... So as we wait for the next shoe to drop the hedge funds are making money by wipsawing this market...... The sheep are still loyal and have not lost enough money yet... Derivitives are unwinding all over the place and the damage has yet to be determined... gold is still acting with much confusion...

Could someone tell me how to change my Kitco handle?
I find it is too close to ANOTHER on this site.
TIA

WHAT ARE YOU UP TO???? I KNEW YOU WERE UP TO SOMETHING! The rookie is piloting the airyplane today! Gollum is in the capsule of that thar GOLD TEST ROCKET. Three stage rockets are only required for geosync orbit or escape from the earth's gravity! That Gollum is gonna come gliding back in in his third stage re-entry vehicle sometimes today or tomorrow; hope this rocket will not require too many test flights
THEY'RE EXPENSIVE!

I pushed the button and nothing happened. Must be that loose wire again. Where did I put that soldering iron and electricians tape?

I read a great book a few year's ago about Baby Boomers.
It was intriguing in its outlook on habits.

It put such a spin on the way we live our lives.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here's a roughly formatted version of "Tom's Take"
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k/Tom's Take.html

I have only read parts of it but a facinating view.
It's now bookmarked on my Y2k web page.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gentle massaging of the indices throughout the afternoon?
Last thing they want is for Gollum to take her down to submarine level again.

A sell-off today would be most inappropiate.

Just e-mail Bart and tell him what you want to do.

PH, it is amazing how when he is behaving himself F* can be lucid and make sense, however on my lst visit to K-2 he has reverted to type AGAIN!!!

Does anyone know where Pierre is? He made more sense than anyone else on K-2. With the possible exception of Le Neek Rouge.

Well this is a rally in a bear. I have been waiting for a 150 point plus day to add to my RYURX and BEARX. Have now done it! Was hedged; now 1/3 long ( hedged with RYURX AND BEARX ) 1/3 short ( same ) and 1/3 dry powder. Added to GOLDX and KGC yesterday. Putting my money where my mouth is.

Depreciate slowly, thereby increasing chances of higher POG in near term atleast. I think that anemic recovery in US markets may slow the flood of outside capital into USA....

Depreciate slowly, thereby increasing chances of higher POG in near term atleast. I think that anemic recovery in US markets may slow the flood of outside capital into USA....

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k\Toms_Take.html

PH in LA - I must also add my thanks to that of Rhody and others. I felt Farfel's article was so good that I just 'had' to fax it to a friend who just 'happens' to be sitting on about a pick-up load of gold bullion. Happy Trails ALL!

Nice to see gold rebound today. But will it last? With all this talk about a serious deflation I have to wonder if there isn't more downside before countries start up the printing presses to reflate their economies by flooding the market with their currencies.

I was wondering if anyone on this forum could help me locate very long term charts for the Dow, CRB Index, and Gold. Anyone know of a good web site where these can be had? These have all moved so much lately it would be interesting to see some very long term charts to see where support levels are now. Adjusted for inflation would also be interesting to see as well. Post your suggestions here or if you care to email me that would be great! lou@stockhouse.com
Thanks!
Louis Paquette

I fixed the wire. Now I'll try pushing the button again. This is my last engine too. If I can't get it too fire I'm going to be up here all night.

This morning, in view of the stock market carnage of yesterday, I emailed the following to all 250 employees of my firm:

1. An email of the Walker market letter showing an update of their 98 crash page. ( From http://www.lowrisk.com )

2. Jeil's models at

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

3. George Ure's site at

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.html

The email was clearly labeled FOR INFORMATION ONLY - NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE.

As of 5 hours later, I have received only ONE response acknowledging the transmittal of this information.

It is also probably worth noting that my company's 401 ( k ) provider ( who manages several billions of dollars in this kind of accounts, and who has web access for investor monitoring and changing of funds ) .................HAS NOT BEEN ACCESSIBLE FOR ALL OF TODAY on either of two pathways. Normally - it is no problem to access 401 ( K ) accounts and to make funds changes without delay.

SELL...

Tom

Prepare for the Gold Rush.
When all these downtrodden stock market victims
come crying to we Goldbugs for help and advice
Have we got a deal for them...
BUY GOLD and resell it to the masses at a profit.
Whether as Gold Bars and Mounties from Bart
or 1-ounce, 1/4 ounce or 1/10 ounce Gold coins,
or Chas & Aurator's 10-grain coins for US$9.95.
48 coins per ounce yields a profit of US$96!!!
I gotta get me some!
Get Gold before the rush - to fleece the sheep!

Your most current dosage levels of prozac and lithium are approaching optimum. Stick with this regimen. Thanks to PH 'n LA for posting your very admirable offering. Kudos y salud to YA!

I believe you have got it square. There should be some BS from Rubin and/or the Administration about how great everything here is and the economy is just so freaking beautiful. But , I bet a ton of gold there is no mention of derivatives. This is the one in the close!!!!

with Bart's Silver prices, he just posted tomorrows price today...;- )

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k/Toms_Take.html

Or find it on my Y2k page.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k.htm

Aproppo Fafels' comments, the recognition of the shift from bull to bear market has yet to come to the fundamental analysts who see current conditions as extrapolable. I saw no blow off in the market sell off this past week, indeed, what I saw was that the first wave of bottom fishing was more intense than all the selling over the past 4 trading days combined.

I believe that most quick traders have blown their wad today. I don't have an intraday buy signal on anything but the gold stocks. ( Early first buy signal was on Friday - it is usually followed by the capitulation as was the case yesterday-in the face of rising POG. )

I'm thinking we're going to see this thing turn around here, either today, or tomorrow, and head back down to re-test the bottom. I do however think that this IS a temporary bottom. The biggest bargain hunters jumped in there, but it'll bounce one more time before it actually starts going up with any spirit at all.

You do good work.

You got it right, the derivitives will be the heel of all this and those that have the gold will call the tune. IMHO, not investment advise atall.

Thanks - Since I got no response on this stuff I sent - it is hard to judge how it was received........either they are just whistling while walking toward the graveyard exit, at a quick pace.....or else in they are in deep denial of what may be the probable outcome.

The 401 ( k ) high activity is very indicative that something is going on, big time.

below 5700, but your guess is as good as mine. We have not had the
big one yet. I am keeping my powder dry, no matter how cheap some of
these gold stocks look!

Yeah, I totally think we're headed below 5700. I do, however, think this is going to be the "big set-up" rally, the one that puts the Bear's next meal on a plate with a glass of wine.

The PPT is so transparent. If this is a true rally then we should also be seeing the transportation index up as well. The PPT is fixated on the DOW and S&P 500.

I think 'dry powder' is the best thing one good do for now. My guess is that before this is over there will be many, many major gold producers whose stock you will be able to buy for under $5, and the description of junior gold mining stocks as 'penny' stocks will be exactly correct.

signaled any substance to this rally.

Please see my following post: Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 00:11

Third stage working nicely. Guess what. I found another five gallon can of fuel I didn't know we had. I think maybe I'll take it down to the engine room an pour it directly into the carbureuters for the last 30 minutes before close. That should be a hoot!

LSteve: All my Canadian stocks are up on the day--at this moment in time. Even Canadian Pacfic which is going to have a tuff time taking train loads to the Pacific coast in the near future. That PPT must be everywhere.

Quite a profitable trading day today for those who weren't overwhelmed with emotions.

Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 10:11
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( DOW DOWN 130!!! ) ID#372262:
Read 'em and weep!!!!

Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 10:10
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( DOW DOWN 115!!! ) ID#372262:
AND PLUNGING along with Gollum airlines!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Kitco is soooo slow at times that I've given trying to lurk.... The Dow is up today, the volume was around 950 million shares. If this is 'a' bottom, I would like to see 1.3 BILLION + shares trading on the day. We're not there yet with a little more than an hour to go. Could be a lot of short covering going on coupled with bottom fishing. I talked to few people today and they believe all is well! I keep calling this a 'crash', and most look at me funny, but going down some 1,000 points in three days is not a correction. The name of the 'game' is currencies. This is not over. If we have a down close today then I think a crash would be guaranteed. Therefore, no down close will be permitted.

Check out the South African Gold Stocks:

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.html?source=core/dbc

Shooting for a 2/3rds retracement from yesterday? Looks good so far.

Boy, do I feel stupid - having cashed out my 401 ( k ) in April.
Oh well, live and learn I 'spose.

hands from trying to catch falling knives. Did manage to catch some PDG & FN near lows, but way to early with my Cdn tech & oil service stock.

Think that the mkt is starting to sniff out a Fed easing. Good for S&P & POG.

In typical fashion, another Kitcoite ( Bufford ) is ready to pack it in on a company ( SSRIF ) that due to the bloodbath has become a screaming buy! Soon the capitalizaton of some of these companies will be below
cash on hand ( wishful thinking ) . Polarbear made a good point about the current litigation againsed Geolog. I have done some additional homework and found that an injunction has been issued to the smelter Cominco to prevent them from distributing the $3.2 million in dispute. Legal action scheduled to occur next week will probably set the tone for the outcome. Hum, I wonder if a Canadian court is going to rule againsed a Canadian resourse company in favor of a country so crooked that dependable production is almost immpossible? Assuming SSRIF prevails, an additional three million dollars will be added to the coffers. This should give a nice short term shot in the arm to the stock price and provide plenty of cash to wait for a reversal of silver. Just picked up a nice piece of the action at 3/4.

Bufford woke Me up to TVX. Looks like a good buy near a dollar. Today it ran away a little to $1.25. These days one can afford to be very pickey about the price of entry. Looking to move as it aproaches a buck.

Just passed 7800

We're going into the last hour, sparks flying from the stacks, steam hissing from every relief valve. Whe we start into the last thirty minutes, I'm going to put the pedal to the metal and jump off this thing.
Anyone who wants off the DOW train better think about it now....

What the hey - shoot for 7900...

Feel stupid? No way, Jose. Just wait a few days and you'll look like a genius.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980901.btl.coming_econ_cra.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/rockwell/980901.excom_upside_recess.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/smith/980901.comcs.html

RJ: Being a "knowledgeable pro" seems to make you think that this entitles you to browbeat others. Obviously, experience as an "intelligence officer" does not make one "intelligent" or you would understand that mere knowledge does not impute worth to any person. Wisdom is much more than knowledge.

In any case, perhaps our resident "knowledgeable pro" would care to comment on the "curbs in" notice appearing on the CNBC market update today. Which curbs are in effect today? What effect are they having on the stock market? Are they what has preventedthe dow from "going to 10,000 because it will, not because ( you ) want it to"?

For what it's worth, Farf does have a valid point about your "baby-talk" style. As did you, when you derided his repetitious style. More than likely your pal LGB/Lurky/Liberty/BUGal/whatever/etc... would disagree by saying that everyone has the freedom to say what he wants ( as long as it agrees with his freedom ) but your little cute phrases have gotten a little tired and unoriginal lately.

If you really do want to talk about ideas, besides demonstrating your superior "professional knowledge", perhaps you would comment on your statement "our more heady days, after decades of inflation has brought gold to all time record low"? Or perhaps you would prefer to embellish on your stated view that "gold is not and has never been a store of value" that you have "stated often" at K-1?

These ideas of yours seem difficult to understand coming from a "knowledgeable pro". I'm can only imagine that even Farfel would enjoy hearing your explanation of them.

GOLLUM: Set the crew free. Enjoy the favorable flying conditions
today, tomorrow, and the next day. Nothing but blue sky.

However, take note, a lunar-eclipse arrives this weekend. Conditions
won't be so favorable during the last 3 weeks of September.

Buy the end of September, maximum altitude will probably be 3000 feet.

Enjoy will you can,

Steve Puetz

Please don't forget to let us know what is "Limit up" in Gold please.

In Dollars and ticks please.

Thank you.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 22:53
farfel ( @TOM..where do I see GOLD...HARHARHARHARHARHARHAR ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...it's going thru the roof, TOM.

THROUGH THE F*ING ROOF!!

Take note of these words: LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.
LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP. LIMIT UP.

Cannot believe that so many fools have been caught in todays trap!

I watched the Titanic for the first time last night. The people buying in today's "rally" kind of bring to mind the two young gents who won the trip on the Titanic. The poor fellows who lost their tickets in the poker game were sad at the time but lived to wipe their brows; verily so will the sellers in todays rally. The Tortfeasor has spoken.

on CNBC next.

Well with nine markets showing gains? against 31 showing losses....who is winning or is it a draw ( ing ) ... cartoon drawing....like in.. a joke?

Ahhh PH....Master of the mindless, pointless, thoughtless, and irrational personal attack...but a dwarf when it comes to any meaningful contribution on any of the subjects at hand.

Whether it's RJ, myself...or even F* word...most if not all contributors to Kitco have given far more insight to the markets than you ever have. Why don't you cease with the cultlike devotee / attack dog status and try a little analysis of your own someday instead? You might find that even you can be capable of original thought about Gold and the markets.

LGB

PH -

I cant figure it out. The only conclusion I can come to is that you just dont like me. Could you please describe how I have "browbeat" Kitco? I think you may have me confused with someone else.

To the Rest -
A funny thing has occurred over the last week or two. I am arguing that a bottom is in place for all the metals, particularly gold. Almost every other voice here ( absent the goldbugs, to whom the metal is always a good price ) is arguing for lower prices.

Irony is ironic, yes?
This worm has turned
And the hog is definitely out of the tunnel

OK

PS
Gold and silver shorts did not get killed, they closed out in very tidy profits, thank you.
Also even indeedy, the Dow did not continue to fall.
I guess there will be a tomorrow after all

Righty O

Also also also, The Ralph Acampora turning bear info was posted here two or three weeks ago, so once again, Fumpy is way behind the curve. Not a bad fellow, though. For somebody who never had an original thought in his life, and just copies other peoples work. Add now to his infamous short squeeze, the limit up boner that Realistic posted about today. I dont know why anybody bothers defending this lump. But I have better things to do than stomp Fumpy ever month or two, although it does tend to raise my income whenever I do.

Since he was thrown off this site, is it appropriate to repost his dissertations at length? He has been offered a return ticket to K1 under a new handle, but his ego is too giant to accept that. This is his choice, none others. Leave his drivel on K2 and I will waste no bandwidth on the little marmoset. If they show up here, I will point out every stupid statement and mistake therein. Fumpy does all the work for me, I dont even have to type. So lets not play silly Fumpy games here, yes? Leave him to his own self imposed K2 exile. He is too cowardly to return here.

OK

PS II
Seems the bottoms in gold, silver, and platinum that I argued would hold, are nicely in place today. The only reason they broke was the Ruble thingie, absent that, we would not have had that last dip. Since the rest of the world missed that on the horizon, I dont feel too bad about it.

OK II

See ya later guys, I'm bailin. Geronimo!!!!

This is today's CNN story on how circuit breakers work. Good refresher.
http://cnn.com/US/9809/01/market.circuit.breakers/index.html

Wheeeeeeeee! This is fun. You're a cowboy, Mr. Gollum. So you're going to land this puppy up here. The flight tomorrow thru Friday will be downward perhaps?
-EJ

RJ - I did mention last Friday....or Sat......hmmmmm.....a few days ago that gold would bounce.......and I would SELL it BIG time. I am w/w. Uh huh. It was soooooooo oversold..................had to bounce..................well, it didn't have to........but it did. Duh. How's the Kooookoooooobooooooora??

GP - how did that go?? oh yeah......

Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 10:11

THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( DOW DOWN 130!!! ) ID#372262:

Read 'em and weep!!!!

Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 10:10

THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( DOW DOWN 115!!! ) ID#372262:

AND PLUNGING along with Gollum airlines!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

-------------------------------------------

hmmmmmmmmm.............you do not make a good replacement for CheezeWeenie or BlooPed.........uh uh. What does the profit 'see' for tomorrow...............??

Puetz - my prediction is you'll be crying in your beer AGAIN this year. No offense.......you will just be WRONG AGAIN. This market will not crash.......not now...............................

All - or is this a 'correction' in a BEAR market?? hmmmmmmmm.........

go gold...

away...back to grind for kookooooboras.....

B

In Space...no one can hear you scream...Nevertheless, a couple o' your remarks demand a bit o' attention. You said in relation to Puetz;

"congrats to this man for having the balls to come out and make his tremendous bear market call in the face of much hostility from the usual bunch of malicious morons. I say balls because it takes guts and courage to go with one's convictions in the face of hostile derision from the
usual group of one-track idiots, specifically LGibberish, RotJerk, and Realistic Nitwit. Hey, Realistic Nitwit, where are all your posts ad nauseum describing Puetz's erroneous market calls? What happened? Did you get your butt kicked today? In the face of Puetz' tremendous call, these guys still have the audacity to come onto this forum and denigrate the man"



Now then *F person. I find myself completely baffled by the entire diatribe above. Firstly, explain to me what Bear market call of Puetz's came true? The market is performing NOTHING LIKE what Puetz predicted.

First of all, it's WAY up today isn't it Fboy? Secondly, Puetz called for an opening yesterday 100 points off. Instead it opened 100 points up and then proceeded to precipitously drop in one of the worst one day losses ever...during the week Puetz said would be up...... during a Half Moon....Peutz told us the big "crash" he's predicting would happen around the Eclipse / Full Moon event. Uh huh... he's as on target this time as he;'s been all along. Namely, about as far off as you can get.

Course the Eclipse / Full Moon is still coming Fboy..... maybe you'd like to go out on a limb and predict, along with Puetz, that the "Real" crash will occur when it arrives...whaddya say eh?

Oh yes Fboy, just so you have some info. to use against me later about what an ACTUAL investor does, vs, a theoretical one like yourself..... I moved finally 10% of my MMF into Fidelity Magellan yesterday on the close. I moved another 10% in today on teh close. And I MAY move anotehr 10% in tomorrow on the close!

Yep. lot's o' volatility left in this market so these are likely to be short term moves. I'll be sure and let you know when I bail. Meanwhile, Gold will end 1998 between $280 and $310.... you heard it here pal.

LGB

I suspect that we have yet to see the bottom for stocks or gold. I plan to hang on to my cash until I see these trends reverse. Then buy plenty of both.

As long as industrial and consumer demand for gold is declining ( due to a worldwide recession, which has not hit the US yet ) , Gold demand should be mainly insurance against inflation. As long as the US$ continues to have such low inflation, it seems demand for gold won't increase much.

Many people on this website may not trust US$ Fiat money, but the reality is that a good bucket of the stuff will still get you a lot of nice goods and services. As long as the system never crashes, this will always be the case. If the system does crash, then food and ammo will be worth more than gold anyway.

Perhaps. These kind of whipsaws are very hard to predict. Depending on what happens tonight as the overnight crowd reacts to what they saw the sentiment in the morning could be anything.

Thurday and Friday we will see the result of many people ( and perhaps funds ? ) deciding what to do about their margin calls.

Emotions run high.

Yesterday, the brokers made a lot of money ( and the shorts ) .

Today, the brokers made a lot of money ( and the longs ) .

A few more days like these and the brokers will have all the money.

Then we'll see the THIRD kind of market where nobody makes any money.

But not for a while, eh?

After ol' Gollum bailed the dead man's switch hit the brakes, but to no avail and the DOW still ended at +288.

Everyone knows to day was just a bump in a bear trend. The DOW went up, and went up a good deal, but we at Kitco know it can't last.

Gold too, went up a good deal.....

Thanks for the Farfel repost. He hit several large important nails squarely on the head. Most specifically the relationship between PMs and debt in this coming deflation. For this will be no ordinary event. It truly is/will be different this time. But not in the yuppie equity bull sense of the term.

When the world realizes that US debt cannot be serviced, all will break loose.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 1

-- TOTALS
Gold 911,342 - 1,175 troy ounces
Silver 78,681,414 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 56,123 - 505 short tons
*******************************************************************
There was 1,175 oz's removed from Registered Gold totals.
Also, there wasn't any adjustments in either PM.
*******************************************************************
It's been said once, and I'll say it again....
WE ARE IN HISTORICAL TIMES! LET'S PRAY THAT WE CAN SURVIVE THE TROUBLES
AHEAD, AND PROTECT OUR FAMILIES. THAT'S PRIORITY #1 !!!
Thanks, Foxman

And he's heading to New Orleans.
http://www.accuweather.com/hurr98f/hurwin_qx0
1/ae

I'm wondering what you see as a reasonable expectation for gold and silver on a one week horizon? It looks like we are firmly in a down channel in silver anyway. Thoughts?

Traders also said that the big drop in US stocks Monday, which saw the
Dow Jones Industrial Average erase this year's gains, may have started a
trickle of investment money into alternative assets such as gold.

News earlier today that the National Bank of Poland increased its gold
reserves by around 70 tonnes was bullish. The bank said it hiked gold holding to increase the safety of its foreign currency reserves and ensure the possibility of financing the budget in case of any crisis situation.
"Gold is the safest asset since it's not anybody's debt," the bank
said. "In case of instability on financial markets and the decreases of
other financial assets such as securities the price of gold usually goes
up," it noted.

http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

"In the absence of trusting relationships, some form of techno-fascism is the only recourse." and "If we are to go through this crisis together rather than bunkered down and focused only on individual security, leaders must begin right now to convene us."

http://www.year2000.com/y2kcurrent1.html

Thanks to Tolerant1 and sharefin for the links!

Go to http://www.accuweather.com/ click on "hurricanes"

Gollum: If you have stock on margin these days, and you get a margin call, you have 3 working days to get the missing money, or the broker can sell whatever you bought most recently.

Lets see now -- Friday would be about right.

Gold equities -- pretty good rise today. Only problem is, gold and gold stocks tend to go up one day only, and then fizzle. I will get more excited if we can get a two day or more rally going. Makes me nervous when I know the general market suction could pull the precious metals equities down , regardless of the long term prospects for precious metals.

The US dollar: I think D.A. is right that the US dollar is weakening. What worries me is that if the US dollar drops too quickly -- 10% or so in a few days -- these may be a sign of serious financial instability -- just like 1987. Gold equities rallied very nicely for a time before the crash. Those of us who wish to be nimble ( and have money to risk ) may want to ride the gold bug Tsunami -- sooner rather than later.

The safe and sure way to make money in gold equities would be to wait until the markets have gone down quite a bit more well after the margin calls. Interesting times we live in -- good thing events like this only happen every 60 years or so.

Bull$hit! I'm stayin' right here is PDX where it's sunny and 96 today. I intend to drink lots of beer and stay out of the sun.

Is this the limbo where K1 poster come to fight with words when they want to quietly settle feud ? ( by quietly I mean away from K1 )
I will try to post about investments here when I think K1 is rather for general comments.
Today I bot 6000 NEM at 14 3/8 and I was already long 6000 from 28
I feel the fear creeping into my bones which I hope is a good contrarian indicator.
Am still long 2 GC and 3 SI but I don't dare to say from where ! ( on second thought let ' s start truthfully 296 and 5.20 )
Am still long 2080 gold sovereign and plan to double this month when I go to my home country.
VRONSKY's chart on HOMESTAKE during the 1930s gives me some hopes.
That 's all for now folks

Hell if I know! But as a long-term investor who decided this year to buy some "insurance" in PM's and related mining stocks, let me explain why some of us "Sheeple" hang in there for a while.

Here are the results of my PM-related investments so far.
Item: Cost Basis: Current Price
ANGLY ( Anglo American ) 45 ( ouch! ) 27.375
ASL ( Ashanti Gold ) 9.48 6.75
HGMCY ( Harmony ) 5.25 3.812
NEM ( Newmont Mining ) 30.10 14.938
SSC ( Sunshine ) 1.06 .688
Gold 308 279
Silver 6.15 5.15 ?I think.

On the other hand, here are my more traditional equity positions.
AEG ( Aegon ) 16.64 89.32
AIG ( Amer Ins Group ) 17.58 80.44
HDI ( Harley Davidson ) 20.50 31.56
HUB.B ( Hubble Electronics ) 42.44 38.19
JNJ ( Johnson&Johnson ) 22.5 72.5
KO ( Coke ) 2.70 ( honest! ) 68.06
NSANY ( Nissan Motors ) 16 5.5 ( Ouch! )
NCC ( Nat'l City Bank ) 13.73 59.75
PNC ( PNC Bank ) 38 44.06
PVN ( Providian ) 36.94 64.25
RD ( Royal Dutch Ptrol ) 18.44 43.30
RSCR ( Rescare ) 17.25 14.125
SEG ( Seagate ) 24.20 18.25

There are others in both categories, but these are fairly typical. So, which group has done the best over the years? Of course, I've only been in PM's less than 6 months.....THANK GOD!!

I agree that Y2K is a potential disaster, that equities are still generally overvalued, and that PM's are due for an upswing. But given the history above, pardon me if I am reluctant to cash out, pay taxes on the gains, and plunk what's left down into the poorest performing category in the market. I think I'll just pick up a little gold from time to time and let it go at that.

PH in LA -


Rather than make my arguments all over again, why dont I just post my arguments from June, 1997, yes? I would be happy to supply the government CPI Statistics, but they dont post as a table, I would have to convert it to an image and post it there. Hey.. I think I will do that. So read on and enjoy. Apart from the uncanny accuracy in forecasting these markets from than a year ago, I think you may learn something about the true "value" of gold. As I have warned others in the past: Apart from inventing a new branch of mathematics, the numbers are irrefutable. I would be pleased to see you try though. Others also tried to make the numbers says other than they do, I proved the numbers are true. I saved those posts too. So pardon if I just repost my prior posts on this subject to other people? It gets tiring retyping the same arguments over and over.

Note to all: The people these posts are address to are not be held forth as any kind of example. I often will reply to one poster and go off on all sorts of tangents that had nothing to do with the original response. So, read and refute:

The following posts were met at first by outrage and finally by a chorus of deafening silence

It just seems easier to post the whole case and let it stand for itself.

RJ Kitco posts June 1997

Arden - I, unlike many others here, have very little emotional investment in gold. Free of this reason clouding attachment, my assessment golds merits and shortfalls rests in facts not supposition. By no means am I trying to say that your arguments are biased in this way, but some that I have read are. Let me answer your main points:

Distribution of gold reserves; name a continent in which gold cannot be found? Regarding the central banks, they have a very real interest in the price of gold; precisely never too far above $400. As for the banks trying to convince us that gold has no value, since when? Central banks are the largest holders of gold on earth, and as such have a more vested interest in gold than any other can claim. Since when do CBs want gold to be worthless? Their goal is a stable price of gold, as this gives the appearance of stable currency. Note I said "appearance, I do understand the game. Why else would one CB or another step in and cap off any significant rally over $400. Last time it was Belgium with over 200 metric tons.

To answer all offers of proof as to golds value in times of crisis or for refugees. I agree completely This agreement carries the proviso that there must be a place for one to go where gold is valued above the goods and commodities it may be traded for. Were I a third world citizen, all my wealth would be in gold, but the global collapse that some here envision will make all men equal. I say again, if the western world falls, the entire world falls. I for one do not believe in the decline of the western world, which I will discuss in depth later, so please dont blast me with the arguments now until you read what I have to say.

The main focus of my argument is that gold, as an investment vehicle, store of wealth, and preserver of value, has performed dismally in the last 20 years. Let me turn the numbers around. Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go? This seems like a very expensive store of wealth. I again ask anyone to refute the numbers. Is my calculator part of the Alan G & the CBs conspiracy? More likely, it is a sleeper in the Japanese takeover, it is a Casio after all.

OK Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.
I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. Who thinks this is a more accurate way to arrive at an average? Front, if you want to get snippy, Ill let you be wrong at the top of your voice. My post to your carried none of the hostility contained in yours. But I guess this one does. I have also taken the low and high for the year and used the somewhat simplistic "frontage method" and then averaged those.

As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 5.2%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996 so followed the 2.7% trend of the two prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 15 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.62 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK lets call it $35, Im not picky. What is 35 x 6.62? Lets call it $232. Gold is now $344 or thereabouts. 232 / 344 = 67.4 % return on a FORTY SIX YEAR INVESTMENT! Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 37 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.72 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 / .37 = $343.24. Isnt that just slightly lower than todays close? Break even in 20 years? When those dollars have depreciated by almost two thirds? I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same.


Auric - ( 01:30 ) - Ah But you have called my bluff. No way would I take that wager, charity notwithstanding. How about my goal of "$335 half a dozen times before $400 once? I do believe all the metals are due for a substantial move in the next two years. Gold may go for the ride, but silver and the PGMs will lead the way. I am basically bearish on gold in the next few months, to the tune of 1.8 million short @ $348 & 350. I Did 5000 oz from $348 to $338.5 a couple months ago. Wished I had taken $339.5 last week, but my mind was on the PGMs and it happened so quick. There hasnt been enough of a rally to re-short, so I guess Im happy I stayed in. I think it was Eldorado who thought I might be trying to convince members of the group to short. I am making no trade recommendations. I am only describing my views. Besides, if we all ganged up, sold the houses and the kids, and put every penny we had into short gold, we wouldnt make a ripple in the market. Thats why the PGMs are so fun, the market is thin enough to move. Even silver can be bounced around for a few tens of millions, Not gold, the market is too massive. Only the CBs have the power to move the market significantly. Correction, 40 or 50 million American citizens with a like amount of Asian and European nationals could push gold through the roof.


It is precisely these great unwashed masses that are missing from this market. The equities have stolen their hearts and the romance has a ways to go yet. I, with the rest, called for a true correction in the equities when the Dow was 5000, and then 6000. A 10% drop from 7000 and strong recovery has made me a believer. Please dont take that statement to mean that I will buy into it. These lofty heights make my nose bleed. Hell, I felt more comfortable buying palladium at $204 than I would buying the Dow, NASDAQ, or S & P, at these levels. But, although self contradictory, I too believe the Dow will go to 8K, perhaps even 10K in the next 18 months. We are in the era of irrational exuberance and the sodomites will not come up for air.

The mutual fund market is more than 3 trillion strong, 2 of which came into the market since 1990. How many funds are there now? 7000, 8000? Ive given up trying to keep track. The funds managers are so flush with cash, and more in pouring in every month. I viewed the 4 - 5 billion per week rise in money markets a year or so ago as a sign that people were getting nervous, converting to cash. Dividend ratios had dipped below 3%, normally a strong signal of a turnaround. What happened next? The Dow broke through 6K. Was that only last October? Its seems an eternity.

I now wonder if there is a great sell off, where will the cash go? Historically some has always gone to the metals and particularly gold, but gold has lost its allure for the 90s American investor. These people fancy themselves savvy investors for making 30% last year. Believe me, I take calls from these people. They are congratulating themselves on the astute analysis when a blind lemur with dirt on his nose could have pointed out 30% on any financial page. Just invest in the smudges. The refrain of "Im in it for the long term, if it drops Ill just buy more", can be heard in a great chorus across this land. Will it continue? I think so. Now, we are seeing increased interest in US equities, primarily from Europe, and Hong Kong. The reasons for this have already been addressed by others here, so I will defer.

The Question begs to be asked Where will this money go? Where can it go? There is simply to much $ and not enough investment vehicles. I never thought I would write anything like this. Were I to read these words 5 years ago I would have given a derisive snort and sent the writer away to wipe the hope off those rose colored glasses. Have we reached the day when 70 to 80 times prices to earning is considered normal, healthy? Is this irrational exuberance, or have we moved to a new era? I simply dont know, we are in uncharted seas. All this weighs heavily on gold, and saps its funding. The longer this exuberance lasts, the more distant the primal tug of gold on the spirits of those that touted its virtues only a decade ago

. We now must speak of the psychology of gold. What is the feeling? Outside of this particular peer group, I mean. I receive calls every day from people who want to buy gold. The first question I ask is always, why? This is not meant to be a challenge, I truly want to know the belief system that compels their call. Apart from the occasional NRA, Republic of Texas ( yes I have sold to even them ) , apocalyptic doomsayers, I hear almost no clear cut or deeply held belief in gold. "Oh, Ive always wanted some, and I thought I might find out about it." Or, "well, my dad always believed in gold, and I have some extra cash, so I thought I would buy some." Or, "I thought Id get some gold in case the stock market drops". Are you worried about a drop, I ask. "no, but it cant hurt to have some." I will sell gold for delivery to these and others.

Often I run into investers who wants to make profits in gold. I usually try to point them towards silver or platinum for profits as they almost invariably out perform gold in a rising market. The potential from profits is greater. As I have stated earlier, unless I am selling for delivery - which, if a person owns no gold, I always encourage - I use gold primarily as a short vehicle. In a falling market its protection is great, and in a rising market, the gold short looses less than the others gain. Gold is my platinum and silver condom. It protects me, It cradles me, it sings in my ear, and strokes my hair. Gold will hear my deepest thoughts and never, ever hold it against me when I sell it short. The way things have been going lately, its nice to get out sometimes.

Make no mistake I will leverage gold long, but only in a moving market. Why wait in gold when there is movement in silver? Besides a dark and ugly cloud seems to be over gold, and until that lifts, I will not fight it, I will use it.

Last year Central Banks sold more than 1700 metric tons of gold. Some was bank to bank but most was on the open market. Expectations of at least 1000 MTs in 1997 are very real. The longer these sales are held off, the more the market dreads the day they are sure will come. Now we are hearing rumblings about "revaluation of gold stores" coming from the Germans and Swiss. If the big four in Europe - Germany - France - Switzerland - Great Britain - sell any gold at all, we will see $320 - $325, possibly $300. The Russians are no longer a threat. I believe their gold is gone long ago to raise hard cash. An interesting aside, received on the COMEX last year; platinum with pictures of the Czar on the bars. 80 - 90 year old platinum. Is this the bottom of the barrel, or simply pillaged platinum from ex party members who have set up their various fiefdoms?

What about Bre-X? A very real expectation of 71 million ounces of gold was just taken off the market! Where is the reaction? That should have been good for $20, short term at least

What about the phenomenal rise of palladium, usually the forecaster of things to come. Look for platinum to follow in 4 - 6 weeks, with gold and silver hot on its heels a month or so later. We have seen many runs begin this way. I thought we were onto one in February but it was very anemic and failed completely. The PGMs in the last eight weeks should have roped gold and, willing or not, dragged it to $375 - $380. What did we get? A great short opportunity at $350. Gold is in a coma.

What about the recent drop in the dollar? Metals are dollar dominated what has happened to all that extra buying power? Where is it. Gold is a redheaded stepchild now and will remain so for the next few months.

I expect gold will test recent lows $336 - $338 in the next 3 - 4 weeks. If a small rally comes and fails again at $350, we will see $325. Thats my take on it. perhaps the only bullish factor, other than big equities correction, or further substantial drop in the dollar, is what I believe to be the start of a really sweet run in platinum. I Called for over $500 platinum within the month at$402. We hit $506 in London, but I didnt get any part of that. Best I did was sell some in the 70s and buy some more in the 50s and 40s. Im out of palladium for good. Let it go to $300 - it has a very good shot at it - it will go without men. My holdings are down to 500 oz and those will be gone at the next $225.

Gold may catch a ride, but in a market like this, Ill take the leaders, silver and platinum. The profits are in these and they dont bite too hard.

I hope this answered some questions for Eldorado. Next: why the western world wont collapse. Maybe next week sometime.

RJD
June 1997





Let me proclaim now from the mountaintop! Hear me in every bazaar! Hush your restless whispers, be still in the pews, and behold: You are all right! Gold is very undervalued now. It is a great buy! It is even better than many of you realize! You will note that my argument to this point has been that gold has proven to be a very poor buy and hold investment. Gold has been a rubber dinghy with a hole in the bottom. The water leaks in faster than you can bail it out. The weight of all this gold can have you chest deep in a folded yellow boat with the water inexorably inching higher. You will drown holding more than what you consider absolutely necessary for times of disaster ( a very different amount for each person ) .

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals


Steve Puetz - It's not how much the CBs sell, it's when they choose to sell. I have a firm belief that over $400 is too high for CBs. Only a very powerful rally can break through that barrier for long. Remember the equation they want to sell to the world: SG=SC. Stable gold equals stable currency. This is the mantra these self inflated, megalomaniacal demi-gods chant to themselves every morning just after they kick the dog, and just before they lower steel toed boots on their fellow man. There will be little forgiveness for these wretched souls as they are sure to be the first up against the wall when the revolution comes.



PS
The web is too slow to post the CPI figures now. I will post it later when traffic dies down. The chart will track the dwindling value in the dollar against gold prices in non-adjusted dollars. All this to compare the price of gold in inflation adjusted dollars, or its store of value, yes?

Don't forget last Friday. I'd start getting queasy Thurday or Thursday afternoon.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/980901/financial/stories/trillions_lost_1.html

Read this...."we must keep the money in the financial system, we'd be worried if it goes into apartments or oil-wells"...what kind of ass-hole thinking is this...god forbid it goes into something productive! Financial markets are the biggest stinking scam ever, a house built on sand will crumble, hopefully before too many peoples lives are made miserable.

As you know, I don't listen to any of the opinions expressed on this forum. I only listen to what the markets say. Today, we had a nice bounce in the Dow, a temporary correction from an over sold condition. Since this is a confirmed Dow Theory Primary Bear Market, this is only a bear market rally which may continue for a few more days. We may correct back to the 7900-8200 area before the next decline begins. Anyhow, in Sep we will see a big Dow decline. Remember, this a Primary Bear market. Avoid any temptations of buying common stocks. If you do, you will be taken to the cleaners with the rest of the public.

All: Please look at below. I think WJC and his crowd has already begun to use the FBI files.
http://ws8.starnews.com/0831SN_burton.html
My take on all this is that WJC can blockade the impeachment process by attacking key figures in congress, but he cannot prevent the bad press from loading down the markets. Hence the US market bear will continue. If WJC really cared about the American people, he would resign. But -- he won't.
I am inclined to agree with EB's suggestive comments from earlier today that the US markets may be in a short term correction, but are also in a long term bear. The US bull market will not return as long as WJC's fortunes are clouded, IMHO. If we have 'flight to safety' from South America and Europe, the assets will then just move into US treasuries or similar investments, not equities.

Starr is going to send to the hill ( what the hill is made of I will leave to your imagination ) and l'il old Monica is an addendum...nothing more...and meaningless really in the scope of things...Oh no...it is treason, abuse of power and other lovely items...

and the candy coating on the report...it must go public...must...so even if there is no strength in our government...which in and of itself will be openly seen by the We the People folks...coupled with everyone seeing Clintler as a manipulative lying weasel...openly and in full view of all the We the People folks...

well...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I say we clean all the houses within OUR government...We the People own them anyway...and let's face facts...we pay those bastards in the district of columbia...and when the markets start to really cripple the We the People's lifesavings and wallets...there will be hell to pay...

Use in CAPITALS WAVE5, then TTI. I must say I agree. Sentiment ( negative ) on the PM markets has been unprecedented.

This weekends article that gold had lost its store as a safe haven was,the Bell being Rung for me. I have been talking about this for a couple of months now, but I guess we just needed a final washout. The buy of a lifetime is here. http://markets.tradingtech.com/Metals/GC/GCDaily/GCD/GCD_0.html

I noticed that the numbers dont work at all with gold at 280. So I redid the numbers to reflect the true state of the gold market today. I also corrected one glaring error in the last, which was the writing of and inverse percentage of the actual profit return.

Please take this apart at will and see if the numbers lie. I also assumed an average of 340 gold in 1997 and 300 gold in 1998. While not accurate, it is in keeping with the generous assumptions I am making to start with. I tried to be as kind as I could with gold. If I had chosen higher numbers in later years, the numbers only look worse.

I have also posted this argument twice B4, besides today. Nobody has ever stepped forward to refute any of it. Not even acknowledgment, just silence. I welcome the soul who can dispute these numbers. I am eager to learn.

The Value of gold at $280, In the Year of Our Lord: September 1, 1998

The main focus of my argument is that gold, as an investment vehicle, store of wealth, and preserver of value, has performed dismally in the last 20 years. Let me turn the numbers around. Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $486 go? This seems like a very expensive store of wealth. I again ask anyone to refute the numbers. Is my calculator part of the Alan G & the CBs conspiracy? More likely, it is a sleeper in the Japanese takeover, it is a Casio after all.

OK Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.

I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 4.9%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996, 97, 98 so followed the 2.7% trend of the prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 14 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.98 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK lets call it $35, Im not picky. What is 35 x 6.98? Lets call it $244. Gold is now $280 or thereabouts. 280 - 244 = 36 ( real dollars ) = a 14.8% TOTAL return on a FORTY EIGHT YEAR investment! But those $36 buy today only what a bit over $5 bought then. To fairly compare, we must look at this as a net $5 per ounce profit or. A less than 2% total net profit in 48 years. Not bad, eh? Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 35 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.86 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 x 2.86 = 363.22 today. Gold is at 280 today, ignoring the passage of two decades, the value of that gold is 23% lower than inflation adjusted dollars or, a guaranteed 23% net loss. Or to use the same reasoning in the example above: 280 - 127 = 153 ( real dollars profit ) , yet those dollars only buy .35 of what they bought in 1977. So. 153 x .35 = 53.55 profit in adjusted dollars, or a 42% return in 22 years, why that is a whopping 1.9% per year profit! This puts you net loss at just 3% per year, as inflation has averaged 4.9% during that same period.

I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same.

Righty O

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/FRONT/t000079562.3.html

the CIA/FBI did their research on what it produced from its website!!

hehehehehe.........

tolerant1: Yes -- it is not just Monica. The Republican majority whip ( House, I think ) was talking to Rush Limbaugh a few days ago, and he mentioned Campaigngate, ChinamissleSatGate, as well as a number of other topics. Even treason was mentioned ( or at least implied ) . Monica is a small piece of the puzzle.
The other side of the coin is that WJC still has alot of clout, and Janet Reno is still fending off the Republican attacks. Further, regardless of the charges agains WJC, the Dem's secret weapon will be the FBI files, and the US media.
I think what will happen is that WJC's support among the Democrats will slowly erode as the fur begins to fly. At some point the Democrats will get totally fed up, and WJC will be left with no support at all. My guess is that the US markets will take it on the chin -- no more market bull, until WJC and y2k are history. Still plenty of time for another baby - boom driven market rally as we inflate into 2010-2015 -- if we emerge from our current problems with an intact financial system. Who knows -- if AG plays his cards right -- the Boomer's savings will go more into hard assets, such as real estate -- and less into the markets. Would be good if we had a good scare, and started paying off our debt. I'm not at all omptimistic about this -- but it never hurts to hope -- and hedge your bets.

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=+%3Ch3%3ESilver+Lining

to sell BEARX and buy BBGIX. Who will give me a guess ?

If no one in an audience bothers to refute an argument, that ought to tell you something about either the argument ot the audience.

http://www.ords.com.au/frankshostak/featurearticles.htm

"How Serious is the Deflationary Threat"
[note] requires 1-1/2 minute download to Acrobat Reader

Just ignor him maybe he will go away like F*

I believe that most here are aware that governments will attempt to halt gold prices in access of US $425 and that the expressed reason is to keep the faith in their monetary systems.

Do you believe that all governments will or can continue to hold the line relative to a maximum price for gold?

Presently we have a very strange situation where many monetary systems have crashed and gold has recently sold at US $270+.

Is this due to dollar strength or the possibility of a coming deflation in the US, and if so, can we sevice our debt with the ensuing loss of export markets and increases in imports.

On another subject, I am not sure, as I have no statistics in front of me, but think that the prices for most of the hard commodities have not increased much in ( numerical ) price levels since 1977, but we all know that prices for things containing them have increased, considerably, that is, except for computers.

RJ, some time ago I was enjoying your posts about two directions in market play - up and down. Both bring money as long as it moves somewhere. Why do you switched to long term "buy-and-hold" now? Want to proof to majority that gold is bad investment?
I can give an equity example. Shares of Philips where around NLG 60 during summer 1996, then went up to 180, then down to 120+ today - still more then 100% gain in two years after all corrections. Last Friday I bought October Philips puts and sold them today with about 80% gain after expenses - in 3 trading days. Is "buy-and-hold" better?

September 1, 1998
Ashanti Goldfields To Offer C$7.94/Shr For Samax Gold

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Ashanti Goldfields Ltd. ( ASL ) will offer C$7.94 a share to acquire Samax Gold Inc.

In a press release Tuesday, Ashanti said Samax shareholders will be offered, as an alternative to cash, an equity security convertible to Ashanti ordinary shares at US$7.10 a share.

Adryx Mining & Metals Ltd., which owns a 43% stake in Samax, tentatively
agreed to accept the offer. The acquisition is subject to certain approvals and conditions. Ashanti is a gold-mining concern.

IGNORE ( dammit )

Where do you expect the market to be in 3 months? Much Higher ( +10% or more )

12808



21.0%

Higher ( +5% - 10% )

24105



39.6%

About the Same ( +/- 5% )

11281



18.5%

Lower ( -5% - 10% )

7311



12.0%

Much Lower ( -10% or more )

5344

Where do you expect the market to be in 3 months? Much Higher ( +10% or more )

12808



21.0%

Higher ( +5% - 10% )

24105



39.6%

About the Same ( +/- 5% )

11281



18.5%

Lower ( -5% - 10% )

7311



12.0%

Much Lower ( -10% or more )

5344



8.8%

Total votes:

60849



8.8%

Total votes:

60849



----------------------------------------------------------------------
WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY
( August 24 - August 28, 1998 )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Growing concern over the outlook for the global economy in the wake of the
financial meltdown in Russia triggered further heavy selling of gold last week,
driving the price to a fresh 19-year low. Fridays London afternoon fix was
$273.40 per ounce, the lowest since May 30, 1979, and gold reached an intra-
day spot low on Friday of just under $271.00. There were reports of some
substantial sales from producers, especially in Australia, where the weakness
of the local currency against the US dollar drove gold above A$500. There
can be no doubt, however, that the greatest pressure came from speculative
selling.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission showed that the net short position of the large
speculators on the Comex in New York rose to 61,510 contracts by August 25,
equivalent to 191 tonnes. This compared with 59,710 contracts ( 186 tonnes )
two weeks previously. The net short position on the Comex is now larger than
at any time except for a brief period in mid-1997 when it reached around 250
tonnes. There is, in addition, strong anecdotal evidence that speculator short
selling accelerated toward the end of the week. Open interest on the Comex
stood at 199,774 contracts on August 25, and had climbed to 207,058
contracts by the close of trading on Friday. It should be remembered that
hedge fund short positions on the over the counter market, for which no
statistics are available, are many times greater than what is visible on the
Comex.

In spite of the increase in short selling, however, gold lease rates remained
around the relatively low levels they had reached a week ago. One month
gold was unchanged at 0.4%, while the 12 month rate firmed a little to 1.45%.
Any upward pressure on lease rates in recent months has been matched by
fresh supplies of liquidity from Venezuela, which only recently entered the
gold lending market, and by Russia. Market estimates now put the amount of
gold involved in Russian swaps at between 200 and 300 tonnes, out of the
countrys total gold reserves of 520 tonnes. There have also been
suggestions that some central banks in Europe have stepped up their lending
out of a growing concern that the new European Central Bank may soon
impose strict limits on gold lending by EMU member countries.

Apart from its impact on the international gold price, the Russian crisis has
also had repercussions for the domestic gold market. The Association of
Russian Banks ( ARB ) last week proposed easing regulations for the public to
buy gold as an alternative to foreign currency. ARB president Sergei Yegorov
estimated the demand from the public could be as high as 270 tonnes,
although he said that this could only occur if value added tax on the sale of
gold bars were eliminated. As it turned out, Russian citizens bought about 1
tonne of gold from the countrys commercial banks last week in spite of
having to pay the 20% VAT. The ARB said Russians had increased gold
purchases in an attempt to trade in their depreciating rouble assets and in the
face of limited foreign currency for sale. Russians initially bought dollars to preserve their savings after the government allowed an effective devaluation
of the currency, but the countrys main currency exchanges suspended
trading last week on central bank orders because of pressure on the rouble.

In other news, gold production in Australia reached a record 318 tonnes in the
financial year to June 30. Australian analysts have estimated that perhaps as
much as 75% of global mine production is uneconomic at prices below
US$275 per ounce. Physical demand around the world remained relatively
quiet because of holidays in the northern hemisphere, coupled with the Ghost
Month in the Chinese calendar, which started last week. Demand in India, the
worlds largest consumer, is expected to rise from mid-September. There are
strong indications that the four-month long Indian monsoon season ending in
a couple of weeks will turn out to be the eleventh consecutive season of good
rains for the country, bringing increased prosperity to the gold-buying rural
areas. Indian demand customarily reaches a peak for the year during the
Diwali festival season in mid-October.

If you have any questions or comments on this input, please address them to
George Milling-Stanley in our New York office, Tel. +212 317 3800,
Fax. +212 688 0410, E-mail GMillingStanley@compuserve.com.

RJ: I will add something to Allen ( USA ) 's comments directed your way.

1 ) Some of us believe that the advent of the Euro will put pressure on the US dollar, and lead to a gold bull. I am not so sure, especially if Germany is up to its eyeballs indebt. Perhaps the German Mark is not as strong as it appears, and the Germans will be forced either to let their currency fall, or sell some of their gold.

2 ) Some of the gold producers now are running currently at a profit due to devaluation of their respective currencies -- South Africa, and Australia. Russia might look very good as a gold producer, if they can ever get their act together, though I suspect most of the gold would be kept internally. My point is this, if the cost of mining gold has dropped substantially in a number of foreign countries, might this tend to keep the price of gold down? My reasoning is -- if the producers can make a profit selling gold at a the current low price, they will do so, rather than shut down.

My guess is that the current deflationary slump in world commodities has depressed demand for gold ( except gold coins ) , and as long as the CB's keep selling or loaning at least some gold -- the cheap gold producers are going to sell at the current price -- as long as they can make a profit. So -- we will have periodic drops in the price of gold when the producers sell. Comments?

Sorry for being lax in not mentioning them in the last while. Yours is a keen analytical mind backed by fact rather than wishful thinking. Your presence on Kitco is invaluable in my opinion. I know you hate capital ( shouting ) letters and don't read them but if you would make this one exception THANK YOU!

The CPI graph I spoke of is a 211K JPG image to be found at:

I am taking this opportunity to buy some more 1oz gold .999 maple
leafs...its only a matter of time before gold start to shine again.

"buy and sell". Sorry.

RJ:
I can't figure it out, either. The only conclusion I can come to is that you do care if everyone likes you or not. I don't care because I know there is far more to a human being than what he/she might type into a computer. I don't know you. You don't know me. How can either of us like or dislike the other. All that matters here is ideas.

Your idea that one formerly amongst us must be disliked by all is a stupid idea.

And yes, confusing. And your insistence that we must all conform to your adolescent concept of personal worth/like-dislike has become browbeating. Your opinion stated once or twice is expression. Insisting over and over is acting like Farfel used to act. He used to browbeat us. Now you are doing the same thing. Have I made my point? You made yours long ago.

Now, moving on.

You claim that "for somebody who never had an original thought in his life, and just copies other peoples work...Farfel is not a bad fellow." Just where have you noticed him "never ( having ) had an original thought in his life, and just copying other peoples work", anyway? You certainly offer no evidence of this in you post. If true, would be easy for you to prove with your own demonstrated expertise in "cut and paste". Your news that Ralph Acampora turned bearish two or three weeks ago and that it was posted here at that time does not put Farfel way behind any curve. He is commenting on the fact and using that info to make his point. That is neither behind nor in front of the curve. In fact, it has nothing to do with the curve.

For someone who accuses me of confusion I am agape at the weak logic and lack of comprehension you occasionally exhibit. Farfel ( and, incidentally, also ANOTHER ) speaks of a short squeeze that lies somewhere in our future. He did not say that it would happen today. Are you prepared to state catagorically that there will never be a short squeeze in the gold market? Or that it will never be "limit up"? ( Last I heard there was a provision at comex for trading in gold futures to stop for the day if the price moved more than $50? Of course the spot market would continue to trade, as would Monex. ) I'm sure that you are aware that Ted Butler is on record describing the tremendous short position overhanging the silver market. Do you include him in your appelation of "fraud" and/or "boneheaded"? I seems that you, friend, insist on defining the opinions of others into your own terms. Farfel, ANOTHER and Ted Butler all speak of events that will come to pass without specifying that it must happen immediately. They speak only of things that will happen, not when they will happen. Where do you get the right to define their opinions into your own short-term time frames. By all means, point out that Puetz's eclipses come every month or two. Ask him where on earth the eclipse must be seen. That falls into the realm of ideas. It doesn't prove, however, that there will never be a crash in stocks. In fact, we seem to be having one even as we speak.

And by all means, do continue to "stomp Fumpy ever month or two," if that's what it takes to raise your income. Just don't imagine that it is welcomed by the rest of us.

You seem privy to inside information when you say "He has been offered a return ticket to K1 under a new handle, but his ego is too giant to accept that." You find this distasteful. I find it more distastful when posters take advantage of Bart's clemency to return posting the same thoughtless verbiage they were thrown off for in the first place. For you, "he ( F* ) is too cowardly to return here". For others, he has the courage to stick by what he is and has been. That doesn't seem cowardly to me.

You chastise me to "Leave his drivel on K2 and I will waste no bandwidth on the little marmoset. If they show up here, I will point out every stupid statement and mistake therein." Fine. Discuss his ideas if you wish. Be assured that your own arguments will be treated in the same fashion. "Every stupid statement and mistake therein" will be similiarly pointed out by the rest of us.

PS. Make no mistake about it, though. I am thrilled ( probably along with everyone else ) to learn from you that "the bottoms in gold, silver, and platinum that ( you ) argued would hold, are nicely in place today. The only reason they broke was the Ruble thingie, absent that, we would not have had that last dip. Since the rest of the world missed that on the horizon, ( you ) dont feel too bad about it." Me too! I mean, me neither. What this means is that our positions in gold, silver and platinum are now secure and that they will only be going up from here. I am very happy now. Yes, on second thought, maybe I do actually like you, now, after all. Is that OK?

FOCUS-Copper, gold rebound on dollar, Wall Street

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Copper and precious metals prices rose Tuesday as some commodity markets staged a rebound from recent weakness after a rebound in Wall Street stocks and a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar versus the currencies of Japan, Canada and Australia renewed some confidence in buyers.
 In other markets, oil prices rose as production troubles looked on the horizon due to a storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Soybeans also rose, but wheat and other supply-swollen markets continued to move lower, awaiting an export revival.
 The Commodity Research Bureau Index of 17 futures ended 2.99 points higher at 198.67, after hitting a 21-year low Monday.
 At the COMEX, gold and silver posted solid gains with the rebound in the stock market and weakness in the dollar setting the tone, analysts said.
 Gold for delivery in December ended $3.30 higher at $282.20 an ounce while December silver rose 11.2 cents an ounce to $4.79.
 "There was some fund short-covering in gold after the sharp fall in the stock market Monday, but equities recovered somewhat today, leaving the fall in the U.S. dollar against most currencies as the major influence," said James Steel, an analyst with commodities broker Refco Inc. in New York.
 A fall in the U.S. dollar against currencies of commodity importing countries such as Japan means the countries can buy more, boosting demand. Meanwhile, a rise in currencies of commodity exporting nations such as Australia and Canada means producers there have less reason to sell their dollar-denominated output, such as ores.
 Copper also benefited from the weaker dollar, posting its biggest one-day gain in two years as the COMEX December contract closed 4.55 cents higher at 75.90 cents a pound.
 "Almost every other commodity fell sharply on the back of the bearishness in Russia, Asia and the yen's woes," said Frederick Demler, a minerals economist with brokerage house ED&F Man International.
 "But copper has been surprisingly resilient. So when the stock market finally did rally today and the yen rebounded, copper showed some strength as well," Demler said.
 Oil prices, another heavily weighted component of commodity indexes, also closed higher. The markets were bolstered by production slowdowns on a buildup of strength in Tropical Storm Earl in the Gulf of Mexico.
 The U.S. Minerals Management Service said oil companies affected had cut back production of 35,970 barrels of crude oil and 601.1 million cubic feet per day of natural gas Tuesday.
 Personnel from some 60 oil and gas production platforms and seven drilling rigs had been evacuated, it said.
 Prices reflected the potential for supply disruptions.
 At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for October delivery closed 39 cents higher at $13.73 a barrel. October gasoline rose 1.20 cents to 41.36 cents a gallon and October heating oil rose 1.57 cents to 37.26 cents a gallon.
 Grain prices closed mixed with soybeans, a speculator's favorite, reflecting the rebound in metals and oil.
 At the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans closed 6-1/2 cents higher at $5.18 a bushel.
 Soybeans had fallen to an 11-year low Tuesday morning before the stock market began its strong recovery.
 "It's a short-covering, technical correction," said Victor Lespinasse of brokerage firm AG Edwards & Sons. "It was long overdue. It would have happened yesterday if not for the Dow."
 Corn mirrored the move, bouncing off a 10-1/2 year low with December corn ending 3-1/2 cents higher at $2.03 a bushel.
 But wheat, under pressure like other grains from poor export demand and large crops overseas, could not recover.
 Wheat for September delivery ended 1 cent a bushel lower at $2.36-1/2 after setting a new 21-year low during the day.


the buy of the century..the s&p......giddi-up-thar'-pardner...

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha51.gif

ALLABOARD.......peopleo......ALLABOARD!

Well, I had fun today. I tried to sit down and watch one of the stock market channels, CNBC for a few hours. I feel brain damaged, somewhat bewildered, and seriously over-saturated with the most bizarre projections from every corner of the world on what this pig might do. Between that blonde lady with the pearls, the little ticker thing moving from right to left all day at the bottom of the screen, the senseless commercials for on-line trading this, currency futures that, etc, I don't think I could have actually sat and watched it for another minute without blood dripping out of my nose or something. It's no wonder this market drop took so many regular folks by surprise, the television just had this barrage of seemingly infinite contradictory truth and advice that didn't amount to a pile of dirt. And that background music, the music with the fast tempo, I started to feel like I was sitting in the cockpit of an F-16, finger on the fire switch, waiting for the order to start WWIII. No wonder folks bought today if they were watching this junk, you would have thought today was the last day the market would ever be open. I'm shaking and feel sick to my stomach. Heaven forbid this market ever drop a 1000 points in a day while people are watching this stuff, some folks would probably start chasing their kids around the house with a butcher knife.
---
flashing pictures on my screen shown too quickly to be seen does not register in my conscious mind propaganda of another kind they're f--king with me subliminally they're f--king with me subliminally

Mozel -
What you say is true.
What you say is always true.
That is why I keep reading all of it.


JTF -
The currency related selling has occurred. Will it continue? Perhaps, but I fear nothing lower than $280. I first made that statement in February. I still hold to it. When it broke through, I was convinced it would rebound quickly.


Snowbird -
Thanks.
You are always a gentleman.


RS -
You mad at me?


Jack -
Yes, all commodities seem to have reached a decade ( s ) low. I believe the governments of economic powerhouse nations have bigger fish to fry than what the measly price of gold is. I believe they could now care less. It is not part of the current equation.


Delphi -
Why buy and hold gold now?
Because we are at 20 year lows.
My numbers prove another thing
That gold should be valued higher
In terms of US dollars

If one must have physical gold
And we all must
If for Y2K alone
We all now have a chance
To roll back the clock
And undo the pain
Of 20 years of holding gold

Now is the time to buy the stuff
And these are the prices to buy it at

Now that I no longer feel
Gold is a bad buy
Isnt this what you all want?
Arent I now OK?
Arent I finally
One of the chosen ones?
A member of the flock?
Is not the color of my blood

Gold?

I think gold
Is an excellent buy
So buy it.

OK

5 years of toilet paper......rolled into a chart..

s-n-p..

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha86.gif

Not really, just don't see the point of your multi-thousand word posts at times arguing with PH and others. Shalom to you.

5 years of gold.....my.my.my........

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha86.gif

Anyone out there have any comments about buying LEAPS on a few blue chip gold stocks??

Did you hear about the dyslexic Satanist?
He sold his soul to Santa


Did you hear about the guy who lost his left arm and leg in a car crash?
He's all right now.


Did you hear about the man who was tap dancing?
He broke his ankle when he fell into the sink.


How do crazy people go through the forest?
They take the psycho path.


How do you get holy water?
Boil the hell out of it.

How does a spoiled rich girl change a light bulb?
She says, "Daddy, I want a new apartment."


What did the fish say when he hit a concrete wall?
"Dam".


What do Eskimos get from sitting on the ice too long?
Polaroids.


What do prisoners use to call each other?
Cell phones.


What do the letters D.N.A. stand for?
National Dyslexics Association.

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't work?
A stick.


What do you call cheese that isn't yours?
Nacho Cheese.


What do you call Santa's helpers?
Subordinate Clauses.

What do you call four bull fighters in quicksand?
Quatro sinko.


What do you get from a pampered cow?
Spoiled milk.


What do you get when you cross a snowman with a vampire?
Frostbite.


What do you get when you cross an elephant and a skin doctor?
A pachydermatologist


What has four legs, is big, green, fuzzy, and if it fell out of a tree
would kill you?
A pool table.


What is a zebra?
26 sizes larger than an "A" bra.

What kind of coffee was served on the Titanic?
Sanka.


. . . and what kind of lettuce?
Iceberg.


What lies at the bottom of the ocean and twitches?
A nervous wreck.


What's the difference between an oral thermometer and a rectal thermometer?
The taste.


What's the difference between roast beef and pea soup?
Anyone can roast beef.


Where do you find a no legged dog?
Right where you left him.

Where do you get virgin wool from?
Ugly sheep.

Why are there so many Smiths in the phone book?
They all have phones.


Why do bagpipers walk when they play?
They're trying to get away from the noise.


Why do gorillas have big nostrils?
Because they have big fingers.

Jeez! Silver really bit the big one today. I just now got to check it and am glad I sold at 7.00!

I won't admit to being a guru - but here's an easy technique for fund switching:

Go to http://www.quote.com and use their free charting system.

Enter the following in the symbols block:

BEARX /BBGIX

( be sure and add a space between BEARX and the / )

Use the WEEKLY chart in the pull-down menu ( daily charts will drive you crazy ) and just watch the ratio as displayed on the chart for a top, to sell BEARX and buy BBGIX - the converse applies to bottoms.

ANOTHER way to play.........the mighty bean....
lay the trap....patiently chew bark whilst the
critter languishes in over-abundance.............
nature dictates mighty changes.........

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha81.gif

well.....gold...5yrs....of misery..

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/newsrael/rael-2sep1998-14.htm

Right on guy. Gold has never been an investment. Gold has never been a store of value. Gold has been from time to time a traders play and a profit could be made on the swings. Buy gold and hold it and you lose money.

Gotta go and watch Titanic on tape ( preparation for the real thing in a couple of days ) . If you have trouble with the quote.com system, send me an email - I'll get back to you tomorrow.

Tom at

Silverdolr@webtv.net

bbml

SilverbaronbuyingmoreSPXputleapstomorrow

Nice bounce. Up 29.86%.
Maybe some people think that Russia really doesn't have much in the way of PGM's, eh RJ?

Using the average US $ gold price over 20 years may not express the true details of gold value versus the US dollar.

According to the Canadian Mines Handbook 1978-79, p336 a table of average metal prices for the years 1973 to 1977 is provided, also a price for gold on June 30, 1978 is given.

For gold, the prices are in dollars for ( the average of the London afternoon fixes ) for that year. Some of the other metals prices are in Canadian $, and if someone here knows the US$/Canadian$ average exchange rate for 73 to 77, I'd appreciate it, as I feel the hard commodities are being used as the scapegoats of fiat power.

Average gold price in US dollars.
1977 - $142.72,

1976 - $124.84,

1975 - $161.09,

1974 - $159.26,

1973 - $97.32

On June 30, 1078 it was $163.05 according to this table.

-there will be change

-there will be a short term rally in the Dow

-gold will rise

-civilians will travel in outer space

-humans will be cloned

-gold will fall

-oil will rise

-sometimes there is a relationship between oil and gold

-everyone who reads this will die

-clone will continue to decrease his presence on this forum

-Another has another name

-F* will return to K1 under a different handle ( unless he already has )

-The Dow will reach 10,000

-PH and RJ will be best friends

-Alberich is actually a dwarf

-gold will rise again

-I will soon grow weary of reading the rants and raves of the less disciplined on this forum

And my last prediction of the day... some on this forum will understand the cleverly hidden message within this post

As I contend that I will be correct in at least 80% of my predictions, you may now all worship me for I am the greatest being to have ever questioned his/her own existance. I am a big man now because I am so witty and smart. I shall announce my greatness and self love to the world. I claim my rightful place between Another and his most esteemed colleague, Friend of Another. Now all must join hands together and sing the Golden Mantra...

-c

I meant to cover my short positions at the low today but the ol computer malfunctioned. I finally got flat as we made it back to todays open level then went short again at the close. Right now I think this thing could go either way. What do you think?

I have been thinking of getting a copy of the Canadian Mines Handbook. Is it published yearly and do you find it a worthwhile investment?

I just wonder why you feel the need to jump into the fray twixt Fumpy and I. He started it, he prosecuted it. I posted here a couple nights ago, that I would waste no more time on this gerbil. I am e-mailed several insulting posts by Fumpy as well as a post by you from K2. I cannot answer you on K2, my password does not work there. Yet you bring him back here, not I.

I am content to let the Withered Gelding continue his diatribe in his own world of one. There he can sing his songs. There he can browbeat entire classes of people, and whoop with joy at losses that real people take. This is the man who spoke of heart? I personally find no glee in anybodys losses, even the F smear. In addition to this grossly insulting behavior, he is once again calling names. Please to not intimate that I indulge in calling Fumpy names, I am simply using the best descriptions I can think of for the F scab.

As for the curve, almost everything Fumpy ever posted was either posted here or other sources available through this site before Fumpy posted it. He proves he has zero understanding of these markets. I will leave the perusal and cut and paste to you. Go back to February or April. Fumpy insisted that we where in the midst of a short squeeze, that day, that moment, while gold fell more than $8. While you are at it, feel free to cut and paste anything I have ever written. I thought about all of it before I wrote it, I stand by it - every single word. C&P away, I love reading the old stuff.

I am privy to no more information than any of you all. Look at the K2 archive back around the start of August or end of July, A e-mail from Fumpy was posted detailing the offer to get back on K1. He complained that he had no "audience" so no dice. This e-mail was signed by D. ( farfel ) Cohen. The name was removed from the bottom of the post shortly thereafter, but all else should be as it was. Ask Squirrel about this, he saw it too.

As for my own stupid ideas, feel free to point.
Apart from some silver shorts last December
And some platinum longs this spring
Almost everything I have ever said here has come to pass
If my ideas are stupid, how do they keep being right?
And if fumpy has a brain, why does he not use it?

Besides, there has never been a dearth of folks on these pages willing to take on my opinions. Some offer better arguments than I. I have changed my view on some things because of what I read on these pages. But people have never been shy about debating my positions. Perhaps you think the other side of the debate is not well enough represented and you wish to throw your hat in the ring? Feel free
to step up the pressure. To what end, I cannot fathom, it sounds as if you will target me and search for mistakes. If you havent found any yet, what makes you think you will? You also say they will be pointed out by "the rest of us". So are you now the representative voice of Kitco?

ANOTHER speaks for himself ( herself? )
I am truly bored with that thread

Likewise Puetz, he is a lost cause. Read his newsletter once. 80% of it was written by other people. He is consistently wrong in his own ideas, but seems too lazy to do anything but quote other peoples ideas. The problem is, they are all consistently wrong. Remember the nunchakus post? If you are doing it wrong, it is obvious. Why do they continue to do it wrong? Anybody that followed their advice is wiped out. Forget about what may happen in the future, all their money is gone; when it does happen they wont be able to take advantage of it.

I took Ted Butlers arguments apart a year ago, on these same pages, and all I said has come to pass. None of what he said has come to pass. I am done with that also.


Regarding the Realistic Quiz today:

There are no limits on gold
Not just in the physical market
( Which is all Fumpy believes in )
Even in the futures market
When the contract month
Becomes the delivery month
No limits exist
We were trading September silver
With no limits

Fumpy again proves he hasnt a clue
Nor knows what to do
But act like a fool

I am done with that grease spot

OK?

PS
You asked me, RJ - in a post directed at Jujube.. you keep making that mistake - about the "store of value" picture of gold. You once claimed numbers could prove anything. Using the same numbers Prove your point. Take as long as you wish. This is the third time I posted these numbers, why havent you taken me to task on them in the past? It becomes ever more difficult to tear apart an argument when it is based on facts and not supposition, yes?

Righty O

Guesses are fatuous. Rumours are noteworthy. Predictions are tempting. Facts are compelling.

Guesses, rumours, predictions, facts...all one and the same unless it is known what it is that is known. The truth does not come easy, and a fact is not a fact at the moment of origin...though time and the pursuit of truth will often reveal the event as fact.

I make predictions, but seldom share,
I glance at rumours to be aware;
When offered guesses, I do not pause,
But facts like this provide the cause...

This One thing I know...FACT...September 22...
arriving on a Tuesday ( three weeks ( ! ) ) at a world near you...

got 21 days?

got facts?

got truth?

got gold?

CALM DOWN, THE WORST IS YET TO COME!
Dr. Doom - Exclusive to Mr. Cyriuss
September 1st, 1998 Cyriuss Investor Homepage

In terms of percentage declines, the 512.61 points Mr. Dow Jones gave up on Monday only managed to secure a 25th place finish in the history of market crashes. The 508-point drop of October 19th, 1987 still rates #1 with a 22.61% drop compared to the measly 6.37% the Dow lost Monday.

Those half-wits comparing 1998 with 1929 fail to account for the percentage drops the Dow Jones suffered on October 28th and 29th of that infamous year: respectively 12.82% and 11.73%. Indeed, four of the worst 20 percentage-decline trading days occurred within a 15-day period: November 6th, 1929 and November 11th, 1929 brought percentage losses of 9.92% and 6.82%, respectively.

A great deal was made, Monday evening, about August being the worst trading month in the history of the U.S. financial markets. Poppycock! Percentage-wise, more ground was lost on October 28th and 29th ( 1929 ) than during the entire month of August 1998 by a full 23.36%! More ground was lost in one day, October 19th, 1987 than in August 1998, in percentage terms, by 13.6%.

A CNN Interactive Quick Vote, currently being conducted, asked: "After Monday's 500-point drop in the Dow, are you ready to bail out of your investments?" The breakdown of more than 36,000 voters was as follows:

13% - I'm already out
5% - I'm selling now
7% - I'll wait a bit more
74% - I'm hanging on

Are you not comforted that more than 27,000 of those investors are still hanging on? That's an overwhelming percentage and we believe it fairly gauges the sentiment across the American landscape. This impromptu poll also measures the level of complacency found in the typical US investor. Perhaps you are one of those.

The problem is not that Americans have lost faith in their economy. Most haven't. The fault lies with the overseas investors who now believe that an embattled US President might have had something to do in creating a new era of US prosperity. Moreso, this tragedy evolves as they continue believing that an impeachment, or resignation, of the Arkansas Adulterer would wreck the now stable US economy. In actuality, the Republican-led Congress, a strong Federal Reserve board and a soon-to-be-legendary US Treasury Secretary were more apt to draw kudos for this unprecedented affluence. But, we'll get to those nasty foreigners shortly.

It was the strong US dollar, championed by Richard Rubin, which attracted flight capital from Asia, Europe and Latin America. That prompted the buying spree between February and April 1998. Low interest rates brought lower mortgage rates, which led to a refinancing boom. The new Roth IRA brought in unprecedented billions into the Dow Jones and NASDAQ, and excitement begat greater enthusiasm for the fast buck to be made in the irrationally exuberant financial markets.

As we noted in earlier issues of DR. DOOM, it was Japan's decisive weak-yen policy that wrecked the Asian economies. After the hidden collapse of, and the rampant insolvency that swept through, the rest of the Pacific Rim, the contagion spread to its most vulnerable contact points: Russia, Hong Kong and Latin America. Unnecessary victims were those resource-heavy nations, Australia and Canada, that suffered as global commodity prices kept discovering a new floor each week.

Urgencies by US banks to increase bottom-line profits, by taking shortcuts, such as through derivatives trading, led to tumultuous speculation in Asian and European currencies. You might say Citicorp, BankAmerica and others helped speed up the collapse of Asia, as they bankrolled major currency speculators. These powerful and wealthy syndicates placed bets: "Let's see how fast we can bring down the British Pound or cause the HK dollar to unpeg from the US dollar." The very rich got richer, at the expense of a few billion indigents.

When a nation, such as Japan spends $20 billion in two or three days to defend its yen against hedge fund operators, you get the idea of how vast are the resources behind such players. Hong Kong spent US $12.5 billion, last week, to prop up its Hang Seng Index and defend its currency from speculators. After that failed, they resorted to trading curbs. Malaysia joined the club on Tuesday by closing its foreign exchange window, but not before suffering a 40% loss in its ringgit.

What your stockbrokers and financial advisors failed to tell you when you bought Amazon.com or Yahoo is that you walked into World War 3. This war isn't being fought with bullets or nuclear weapons. Instead, a country's currencies are used to destroy an enemy. A safe haven is no longer gold, but a US Treasury Certificate. China's threat of devaluation prompted the US Federal Reserve to assist Japan in stemming the depreciation of its yen. While not quite on par with Hitler's invasion of Austria, in terms of ripple effect, their demands created a greater global impact.

Just as gold, throughout Western Civilization, financed wars, carving out new countries while destroying others, it is now the US dollar that bears this responsibility. We are at a crossroads where Europeans, Asians and others must sell their US equity positions in order to indirectly help defend their currencies. Pity the poorer Canadian, whose currency has sunk by nearly one-half its value since Richard Nixon was in office. The Canadian dollar lost about 10% of its value over the past year.

During the first half of 1998, it made very good sense for Canadians, Brits, Germans and others to invest in the US of A. They were getting a double-bonus. While their currencies were going to hell in a handbasket, their investments in the US financial markets were paying out eye-popping returns. But, the tide turned, again forced upon their political leaders by currency speculators, to bring back those francs, yen, marks and loonies home.

One could see Monday's crash in the making on Thursday and Friday, following dramatic rises in the Swiss Franc, British Pound and Deutsche Mark, and to a lesser degree the Australian dollar, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar. Now, that the Japanese Yen is at a 6-week high against the US dollar, there may be more Wall Street massacres, such as the one on August 31st.

Overwhelming flows into the US bond market has driven yields to unforeseen lows. What would logically follow is a reduction in US interest rates. What happens to the US dollar when it pays out less and less interest to those who hold dollars? US holdings are quickly converted back into Yen, Pound Sterling and other currencies, at the expense of the US equities market.

A collapse in the making, you say? That sums it up about right.

The billion-dollar margin calls on Wall Street, raining down upon those poor hedge fund operators who had sunk far too much dough into Russia? That's hardly a dent compared to what is coming down the pike. Imagine what how much panic might ensue should there be a repeat of those heady days of late October 1929. Percentage-wise, we might find ourselves looking at back-to-back days of 900-point drops in the Dow Jones.

In terms of the calendar, 14 of the worst 25 percentage declines occurred between September 24th and December 18th. Nine of the 25 fell during October.

That CNN Interactive Quick Vote might not then show the resolute complacency we now witness over the recent deterioration in the US financial markets. But then again, someone's got to be left holding the bad. Just make sure you aren't the one.

The world is almost nearly as it should be.

Envy, clone. Tsk, tsk. Go to your rooms.

Thanks for the info. As SWC is one of my 2 remaining US mining stocks I've been afraid to look at its price today. ( Of course the fact that I've been working to get all the water out of the gas line of my generator before the tropical storm hits has had some small impact on leisure time to look up stock prices, but given the general hysteria in the stock market we'll discount that factor. )

I have to agree with PH in LA, as probably many others here also.
Your ideas on PM's are valuable, but leave this FARFEL thing alone already........

Don't blame that storm on me. It's Earl's deal.
May you have a bit of good luck.

I can take $278. gold, I still read RJ on Farfel, I don't worry that much about rangy.......BUT: I can't take the slow access speed of Kitco...it's killin' me.....little by little. I just can't take it no more. I give. shoot me.

.

Aragorn III: A fact to me is something that everyone with appropriate training can acknowledge is true or can be determined repoducibly and consistently by a trained individual from other information. For example, if you do A,B and C, D will follow. I admittedly added causality which complicates things a bit.

Can you explain to us what is so important about Sept 22, other than the fact that Sept 22 is Sept 22, 1998? Think the FED will lower rates? We do know it will happen when AG thinks the market bubble has dropped enough. He wants to reduce the value of the dollar, but he does not want to make the US market bubble any worse.

You'd think that the WJC xxxgate was made to order. Gets AG off the hook as the one who popped the market bubble.

Get the rangy mailing today? With the transfer of Crown to
Durban Deep rangy ends up with 13.9% of Durban. Go figure.

No vocal comments re "Tom's Take"

No one read it?
No one agreed with it?
No one dissagreed with it?

What's going on?

http://www.cairns.net.au/%7Esharefin/Markets/Y2k\Toms_Take.html

I thought it was intriguing?

I feel it is a worthwhile investment and think that it also is offered on a floppy.

It's strenghts are in the tumb nail sketches it gives on most every Canadian mining operation and exploration properties along with the companies reserve estimates, but your own research using news realeases to keep abreast immediately before and of course after its publication as it is an annual.

Things to be aware of may be the number of issued shares given as new financings could make those numbers void. Properties may be given up or and such things as mergers may occur. Such may not be reflected as the handbook is printed on a yearly basis.

Steve Forbes....his grandfather gave him this advice

Yup. I'm impressed that kebble has enough money to print and distribute the prospectus. I guess Crown's leaching tech/facilities will work well for Durben. I just hope Durben works well for us. I have enough Deeps as it is. Got my fingers crossed on the Randgold Resources start ups. Salud y G&P to YA!!! Appreciate your timely & relevant postings of RSA mining news. gracias.

Excellent repost eariler today on the relative performance of Gold as a "Store of value" or "Safe haven" or "Inflation hedge" or "Investment..." etc etc. during past 2 decades.

I too have posted here, several times, trying to make that point. I was going to repost a couple but I dont seem to be able to pull up the 1997 archives from August, Sept., Oct....hmmmm

Anyway, using a ACTUAL "Real World" anecdotal comparison ( since the CPI numbers lie anyway ) ......

In 1980 I purchased a home, and also a new Honda DX sedan. The home cost the equivelant of approx. 130 Gold 1 Oz. coins. ( 1980 Gold coins! ) The Honda cost approx. 4.5 1 Oz. Gold coins, again, at Gold's 1980 value.

Today, the same home would cost approximately 1,250 of the same Gold coins, almost 10 times as many. The Honda would be about 45 Gold coins, again, a tenfols increase.

When I look at then vs, now in U.S. dollar annual Insurance premiums, my annual total tax bill, weekly food bill, and several other real world items...I see a similar result.

The DOW cost about 1 Gold coin in 1980. Today it would cost about 29 Gold coins eh???? In my book, the "Store of value" folks who belived the Howard Ruff's and Granvilles of the world ( both very popular in 1980 ) and put their investment capital there inctead of stocks.... have lost no less than NINTEY SEVEN PERCENT of their capital!!!

Yes, I know many will complain that I'm taking Gold at it's peak, and DOW at it's low, homes in the rest of the country havn't escalated as fast as they have here in Silicon Valley, etc etc. and thus I skew the results.

However, this is indeed an ACTUAL real world example. And these are indeed the two decades when I've been an active investor.

By any measure, Gold has been an absolutely HORRIBLE "investment", "Insurance policy", "Store of value", "Safe Haven"........et al. for these past 2 decades. No fairy tale hype and fantasy can change that fact.

Some try, by showing Gold's progress since 1900 and such absurd things, trying to make a case for gains against the DOW during periods like the great depression. Yet we know Gold was fixed at $20 / Oz. until the Govt. confiscated it, and revalued it at a fixed $35 /Oz. Once citizens were again allowed unrestricted ownership of Gold, culminating in it's stabilization a couple of years later at the $600 to $750 level....it's from THAT frame of reference that any comparison of relative performance should be made in today's global economy.

Are things going to reverse soon? Yep. Gold a good buy? Yep. Due to hype cheerleaders, phony gain curves, and misinformation? Nope.

LGB

"In 1987 the market went from 21 times current earnings to 13. So that's a drop of eight points. And the market back in April was at 26 and if you subtract eight points from that you get 18 times current earnings.
So you are getting close to the 5200, 5300 level. This said, if we were to drop below that then it would be irrational exuberance but on the other side.''

Canadian equities a long way from sustained rebound

By Sarah Edmonds

TORONTO, Sept 1 ( Reuters ) - Stow the champagne in the cellar. Put the noisemakers in a box. It will take until 1999 before celebrations can begin anew in Canadian equity markets.

In this uncertain market, the opinions of market strategists are as diverse as wildflowers in a field, but all agree that it will be a long time before investor confidence blooms again.

Both the Toronto and New York markets were extremely volatile on Tuesday as investors absorbed the aftermath of the steep slide on Wall Street on Monday. New York rose, fell, then bounced upward through the afternoon. Toronto shuffled more or less sideways, in and out of positive territory.

The Toronto Stock Exchange key 300 Composite Index was trading up 8.59 points at 5539.30 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 235.84, or 3.13 percent, at 7774.91.

``I am not sure this is the turn although it looks like we could be in for a billion share day ( in New York ) which would be an all-time record,'' said Douglas Davis, president of Davis-Rea Investment Counsel in Toronto.

``Usually when you get that sort of volume on an upturn it marks at least a short-term bottom.''

The Dow corrected sharply on Monday, racking up its second-largest point loss ever. The index finished down 512.61 points, or 6.37 percent, at 7539.07. Toronto was less brutalized, losing 235.67 points, or 4.1 percent.

Analysts, many of whom were concerned that markets were overestimating earnings for the coming quarters during the rally earlier in the year, now believe that stocks are getting to sensible valuations.

Most dismissed the doomsday theory that a worldwide recession is riding in on a pale horse. But some were concerned about a general slowdown.

``We are in a bear market. Read my lips,'' said trader Sonny Lennon, a market veteran at Deacon Capital Corp.

``It's a self-fulfilling prophecy...I think part of the self-fulfilling prophecy is that world economies are going to slow down.''

Davis said September and October, traditionally weak months for stocks, could see further losses. But the sharp sell-off in Canada, particularly in bank shares, has created good value and stability and consolidation may not be too far off.

``The market has been well-whacked...so it looks like it has more potential on the upside than it does on the downside,'' Davis said.

The market may eventually retest its record highs ``going out one to two years but I think we have to do some consolidation here.''

Martin Roberge, an analyst at Levesque Beaubien Geoffrion, said late 1999 could set the stage for a solid, sustained rally.

``For the rest of the quarter ( further downside is possible ) , stabilization in the fourth ( quarter ) and a rebound in 1999. But the rebounds usually occur in November and December,'' Roberge said.

He said given that historically overvalued markets tend to pull well back to undervalued territory, the S&P 500 could lose another 10 percent and the TSE 300 another five.

``In 1987 the market went from 21 times current earnings to 13. So that's a drop of eight points. And the market back in April was at 26 and if you subtract eight points from that you get 18 times current earnings,'' Roberge said.

``So you are getting close to the 5200, 5300 level. This said, if we were to drop below that then it would be irrational exuberance but on the other side.''

RJ:

Thank you for reposting your essays from June 1997. It was a real high point to read from you what I often suspected you could write.

Certainly, the chorus of silence concerning your mathamatics in regard to the past 20 years was, and still is, wholly merited. Trouble is, when some of us speak of gold, 20 years does not seem a very long time.

I was reminded of this today while reading the new essay by Otto Scott over at USAGold about paper money in the early American Colonies. At one point, the author mentions a fiat currency that was used for 40 years before it was abandoned in favor of specie. ( The site is down now so I cannot quote the actual reference. ) It occurred to me that for the average human being, 40 years is a rather long time. In fact, it seems like forever when you are actually experiencing it. Yet in historical terms, it is not. And you study carefully the price of gold over the last 20 years, ( co-incidentally, the time since the US Dollar was uncoupled from gold by Nixon ) . In the greater scheme of things, this is not very long, either.

Yet, what has actually happened to money in that time? Not investments, I mean money. It has been pretty dramatic.

I remember that when my brother and I delivered newspapers as boys ( 30 years ago ) , we had to collect $1.95/month from each customer. There was a profit in that for us as long as we collected from each customer. Some customers would hide when we rang the doorbell to avoid paying their bill. Some ran up bills of 2-3 months because they didn't have the money to pay us. Those were the same dollar bills, the same nickels and dimes ( well, the dimes were made of silver in those days ) that we have today. But no one I know thinks that $1.95 would be a lot of money to have the newspaper delivered to his door every day for a month, nowadays.

I still have some Spanish pesetas from a trip to Spain in the 1970's. I am told that they are worthless today. They have been replaced by other pesetas that will also be worthless someday, too.

And I remember thinking that my first real job at $300/week seemed like a fortune. Now, that is more like a good day's work.

In the late 70's I worked in Venezuela. I was able to send $1,000 back to the USA every month from my salary. The Bolivar was about 4 to the dollar. Several years later, I was asked to return to the same job. I didn't have to think twice before turning it down. The Bolivar had been devalued and it would have been impossible to even send back $100/month. Today, talk is of the same Bolivar being devalued from 500 per dollar.

Gold from any of those times would still be gold today. It might be worth more. It might be worth less. But it would still be gold. I would rather have it today than the Pesetas, Bolivars or Dollars from those days. That is value.

You challenge us to compare any investment to gold. Well, what about those curriencies? What about stocks and bonds of now defunct companies? Are they included in your comparisons?

Some of us believe that we are only now beginning to see the unravelling of the fiat system of money that we have lived with all our lives. Focusing minutely on the last 20 years and comparing gold prices to other investments via careful mathamatics is not particularly enlightening. We are looking at events coming to a head after over 60 years of abuses. It is bound to take some time. No one is sure exactly when the events will unfold.

But they are unfolding, of that there is little room for doubt. Russia is falling apart. Japanese banks are actually defined as insolvent. Riots are not being acurately reported by the media in Indonesia. South America seems ripe for another disaster. Etc.

I like the idea of owning gold and silver at these prices. Gold made a 25-year low last week. Few among us imagine that the number of dollars in circulation today properly reflects sucha price. I cannot think of anything else that costs the same today as it did 25 years ago. If I could, I would probably buy that, too.

You probably find my voice slightly irritating. This is unfortunate, as I really do not disagree with you. I just cannot help thinking in longer terms than you do. As a professional, you have every right and even obligation to think in very exact and definite concepts with regards to both numbers and time frames. In my own profession, ( music ) we routinely deal in timeframes of 32 or 64 events ( notes ) per second or faster. But it would certainly not be productive to project that kind of timeframe onto the thinking of others. Just because some of the rest of us do not and/or cannot think just like you, doesn't mean that we don't admire you for it.

But saying that carries with it no obligation on my part to join you and actually think like you.

Is that OK with you?

Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.06. The 233 day moving average is 28.34

how old are each of ya...

Well Done!!!!!

No connection with storm names. I really did spend three hours cleaning water out the carburator and gas tank, so didn't have time to look up my stocks. But yesterday I was just a coward, plain and simple. I'm just glad I missed the dip and am glad the stock bounced back up so well. Speaking of tropical storms I still suspect that Bonny must have flooded or washed out some buried phone cables in the D.C. to Atlanta area, thus slowing Kitco. I don't think there are enough gold bugs left in the world to slow it down otherwise! ( 8-^ ) )

This has been an interesting year. Long droughts followed by monsoons. In my town they've taken to posting idiot warning signs along the roadways "If road is under water do not enter." Its amazing. The town looks like Venice but dirtier some days. I'm thinking of building a gondola and learning to sing.

Whci reminds me of a joke. Do you know the difference between a gasoline powered generator and a bagpipe? You can tune the generator.

speed up a lot.

Coming home from an evening on the pool tables ( where bladder capacity is equally important to a knowledge of the various effects of english ) to a dinner of barbecued porksteaks and sliced fresh garden grown vine ripened tomatos.

Keeping 1987 in perspective, let's not forget that a year later the losses of that bear market were erased and the DOW went on to the best Bull in history.......I know, I was heavily in that market. My only long term loss was the "Homestake" mining shares I held through that debacle!

Let's also remember we were in a recession back then, and virtually ALL economic indicators were worse than they are today, other than the stability of economies outside the U.S o' course.

Am I cheering on the DOW? Not necessarily. I bought heavily yesterday and today for the first time since August 87 ( other than a few day trades ) . However, if I see a solid market moce in the next few days, I may sell, park on the sidelines again, and wait for the next dip.

I do believe this market will be making new lows for the year, before year end. ( Though it'll have nothing whatever to do with eclipses and Full Moons and such )

Now on the RJ / PH thing, it seems to me that PH keeps going out of his way to speak for Fboy. This I don't understand. Fboy is the one who tried once again to post in an insulting manner re RJ ( and myself and Realistic ) in the past 2 days. Are we supposed to all remain silent everytme he returns with his nonsense? I havn't even bothered to adress Fboy here, though I did respond to him over on K1....but it seems that is a lonely place over there...a fitting place for some, not for others.......and thus I don't intend to return there. Beyond that I'll try and stay out of it, but I must admit it baffles me that some folks are suppsoed to simply "not respond" when invoked by name in a derogatory fashion, whilst others are expected to have free reign.

Seems like Gold cheerleading, Dollar/DOW bashing is the criteria for this discrepancy in what standard we're suppsoed to live up to. Odd.

LGB

Here is some news about the strengthening Canadian Dollar versus the US dollar. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/canada_dlr_1.html

And a Namaste to you as well. I am a tadpole of 43, with much to still learn in life..... Yes I advocate a position or perspective with enthusiasm..... but I also yearn for greater knowledge.

This is why I hang out on the Kitco forum. A greater pool of incredibly diverse and intelligent market minds, I have yet to find. Many other forums I have visited.... some knowledge can be gleaned from them but they fall short of this place, yes?

LGB

boooooooooom. When will Arabia be liberated of its consumptive royals and oil returned to it's rightful manifest? tell me sumthin'.

Zen: What is, is.

Maya: Illusions, beliefs, values, desires, fears, moral judgements.

sharefin: I finally have a copy -- Netscape locking up tonight -- not just Kitco, either.

I have only read a piece of this, but I do have something to say -- sort of a corollary to Lincoln's 'fool the people' speach.

It is based on human nature, and lists all the personalities that did not prepare for a potential crisis ( gold bull/bear, US dollar crisis, US markets crash, Y2k crisis, asteroid encounter, WJC's problems ) :

1 ) No one told me.

2 ) I read about it, but it does not make sense to me.

3 ) Yes, but the other expert says not to worry about it.

4 ) Yes, I read about it, but it will not be as serious as people say it

is. ( No reason given ) .

5 ) Yes, it is a problem, but I cannot afford to do anything about it.

And -- the economy is doing fine anyway.

6 ) The government will take care of it -- I won't starve. Haven't they

been helping us out for ____ years?

7 ) I have more important problems to worry about -- such as how do I

keep up my monthly payments right now?

8 ) Why worry about it? That is a long time in the future.

9 ) Those 'Gloom and Doomers' are fruitcakes, ignore them.

After you sample the general population, and determine how many are eliminated, based on items 1 ) - 9 ) , what percentage of the population will actually prepare? I'll bet it is a small number.

Actually, the only way to increase that number is to steadily and persistently spread the news. The awareness of the problem slowly grows.

I can remember a time.....aty the beginning of my serious "investment" years.... when the DOW/Gold ratio was 1:1 !!!

LGB

to provide us with an age we can get proceed.

T

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980901/international/stories/mexico_state_of_the_nation_2.html

IDT - I was using a trailing stop and was stopped out last night at 976 on my long purchase at yesterday's close ( 956 ) . Went short at 973 added to my shorts on the break of 950 thought we could see 900. Covered everything at 955. I then felt a need to scalp the market...that didn't work, but the brokerage house loves it. Turned the screen off for the rest of the day. Shorted the SnP tonight at 1000 with a stop at 1010, the stop is moving down about a point an hour keeping in line with a trend line on the hourly chart. A 230 point up day on an A/D of 8/7 doesn't look very good to me.

currently

short sept SnP at 1000

long dec gold at 277

Bravo! Excellent piece -- calm, level, thoughtful . . . Isn't it ironic that, historically, those days we were born into that we tend to think of as normal were really, historically, abnormal? And by extension, understanding these tumultuous days -- "such as we've never seen before" -- are more like the majority of days of human history?

Solomon was right. And you too, RJ.

YOU CAN TELL HOW IMPORTANT YOU ARE TO THIS MULTIPLE PERSONALITY BY HOW MUCH HE POSTS ABOUT YOU. YOU MUST BE VERY IMPORTANTA!

Would you spend that much time on one you know not? NOT

Take care...keep posting...ignore multiple personages..rise above this...he can not.

Tom

The family demands I join them in a viewing....talk about sheeplike behaviour! Yes the better ( make that MUCH better ) half got her copy today. Much to my consternation..... OK, time spent with family is ALWAYS good time yes?!

Would that the citizenry should line up for Gold coins the way they do for Titanic movies and Beanie Baby's eh folks! OK, off to check out that early Century SILVER "Barber Dime" that Rose tossed to whathisface Femboy Decaprio in payment for the sketch.

LGB

Sharefin--read your URL of "Tom's Take"on Y2k and thought it was very compelling reading on the extremely dangerous implications of the social breakdown coming from Y2K. Got out my maps and starting looking over the best safe havens in the country: Southwest Kansas--lots of food. Klamath Falls Oregon--mild climate, lots of food. South of Cour D'Alene Idaho--OK climate. Skagway Alaska, Homer Alaska, Prince William Sound Alaska--areas with nearly infinite amounts of fish and game, and people who are pro-gold and pro-guns.

Living well is the best revenge.
-EJ

It appears to me that the mines are far more deppressed in value than gold.
Some of the lower cap stocks are starting to ignite my interest,when the price of gold rebounds many of these mines should go from cents back to the dollars,if there still in business.
Your posts Jack show you know your mines.... What is your opinion of the low caps.

It's heading that way again. You can buy the Dow tonight for 4 ounces less than last July.

I don't know if it will work on your version but I set a larger cache and smaller disk cache on my netscape and then when it slows I clean out the cache. In my version I click options, then network preferences then cache then set memory cache ( I've set mine for 5000k ) then 'clear cache now'. Not responsible if doing any of the above crashes your system. No advice, just telling what I do to flog my 'puter. IMHO

Well put.

Oh hi, EJ. I didn't realize you were around. How'd you like the ringtailed hydrazine powered rip snortin whipsawin flight today?

That was a REAL test of bladder capacity, eh?

?

?

Hi, hope you're doing well. Read your piece from last night posted on K1. Good stuff. Don't stop. You ought to get back there with a new handle -- something "unpronouncable" perhaps.

Everyone's right sometimes, and everyone's wrong sometimes. But everyone's voice, including yours, needs to be heard. Think about it, huh?

dj

And: I only covered the list with reference to who will acknowledging the problem. It is another matter altogether to get individuals to cooperate effectively to solve the problem. For example, I think one of the large computer solutions firms have decided not to do any more y2k work, because they cannot afford the potential liability insurance if anything goes wrong when y2k finally comes around. Frustrating -- we know what may happen, and we also suspect that bad events may occur regardless of what we do.

So -- are we masters of our own fate? Do we cause all events? Or, are we like the ancient Greeks who thought that we are passengers in this great experience of life, and can only watch the events unfold in front of us?

I think it is a little bit of both.

Seeing the future -- dimly -- has its advantages and disadvantages. If you can change the future for the better, then knowing the future may be beneficial. If you have no power to manipulate the future, than all advance knowledge can give you is time to prepare.

Sometimes I think -- I would like to be our cat -- who is happy most of the time. All needs taken care of. But -- then, I think why is that cat so happy -- it only is because I remember to give him food and shelter.

And how do I do that? It is because I know what will happen if I run out of food, or forget to repair the AC or the roof. So, I again realize that I would like to know the future, even if I am powerless to prevent certain events from occurring. Biting that apple of knowledge is a hard choice -- and there is no turning back once it is done.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/curcommt.htx?SOURCE=htx/http2_mw

This site has delayed futures prices on the metals.

.

Perhaps there is no future, but rather all futures.

So we do not determine the future or find ourselves fated to be ensnared in it, but rather influence which of many possible paths is our personally trodden one.

Many have posted that Y2k will create chaos and financial meltdown. It would appear to me that the reverse may be true. With economies headed rapidly downward. Governments and corporations going bankrupt or barely staying in control, Y2k is going to be the last thing to get attention. No funds, internal and external panics chaos will already rule the day. Thus forcing Y2k into a greater reality and being even less prepared. In the financial world depression we could be in by 12/31/99 Y2k could be more massive than anyone could imagine. Or, depending on how bad things get between now and then it could be "Oh well, what the hell. I got no money, can't afford electricity anyway, they took my car, no job, no phone, can't fly anyway, so what!"

Just thinking out loud, but IT could happen.

Got cash? Got gold? Got silver? Got food? Got common sense?

Take note of these words:

LIMIT UP.LIMIT UP.LIMIT UP.LIMIT UP.

( Didn't that just piss you off? You're so predictable, kid. Your every reaction is as predictable as the Sunrise. )

HARHORHARHORHARHORHARHOR.

Now, tell me again...

...if perception does not matter in the Palladium market, then how can there be a market? Tell me again, my PM market expert: what is the price of Palladium?

HARHORHARHORHARHORHARHOR!

Oh, it's fun being an interrogator.

Now I discover you know where I live and you're gonna pay a visit to me?

Oh, Mr. Tough Guy, I'm just shaking in my boots. Just shaking.

I must just be a complete ant...a total nobody...that you can come along and squash.

Kid, it's tough to be a nobody in this world.

So, tell me what it's like to be such a well-connected, politically powerful, omnisicient fellow such as yourself. I want to live vicariously through your worldly experiences, kid. What's it like? To just pick up a phone and call up a Senator and say, "Harry, I need you to do this little favor for me." Or to party with a Congressman and say, "Jim, I hope you put that whole cancer thing behind you. And how's your wife doing?" How's it feel to get family X-mas cards from these guys? And what about all those rich famous people out there. What's it like to have a famous Hollywood star call you up and invite you to join him and a couple of strippers down at the usual joint? What's it like to fork over several thousand dollars of gambling money to some billionaire just because he doesn't have any cash on hand? Tell me all the stories, my well-connected friend, I want to hear them.

I can live vicariously through you, can't I?

Of course, in the fantasy world of RJUBERJUBE, I must have zero connections. I must just be some abject wretch lying in a gutter somewhere. Otherwise, certainly you would never maintain your relentless defamation especially since I know exactly who you are and who you work for. Either you have no fear or you're dumb as a doorknob, it's hard to figure.

But, hell, I admire your balls, kid.

Oh, I just wish I knew some really important people...just so I
could pick up a phone and ask for a favor?

NO, not me...not some guy named Fumpy! Impossible.

Or is it?

Would you like to know?

Thanks.

F*

JTF - if you read in my post that I thought we are in a corrective phase of a bear market then you read it wrong or I posted wrong. It is MY opinion, fwiw, that we are in a corrective phase of a BULL market and are experiencing GREAT VOLATILITY due to Lofty heights, Asian Contagian, various weakness in other countries, Lunar Eclipses, Billy Boys wandering Johnson, TeddO's move to Swan's Island, I don't care, ETC....or as TeddO was so fond of saying......ECT, ECT. A sort of 'blowing of the pipes'.... ( I'll get slammed for that one ) ;- ) ........

This DOG BONES correction will end and the mighty DOG BONES will continue it's meteoric rise to 10g's+.........yup. The US market will prove to the world AGAIN it's flight to safety......................... ( Spud will slam me for this one too ) ;- ) ..........so there. I said it. I mean it. I don't want ANYONE confusing me with GoldenCheezeThingy or Puetz or PsychoProphet.....ect, ect...

...I too am a connoisseur of ideas. The ideas are the thing and you certainly have no dearth of them.

Keep up the good work.

With respect to the kid, Multiple Personality, he is aching for acceptance and applause from some kind of absent father figure. Not worth more than a paragraph of attention.

Finally, I agree with you in one notable regard. No matter whether or not you believe ANOTHER is a fraud, his ideas are of significant merit. They are extremely thought-provoking.

Thanks.

F*

This was my entry into the Platinum Guild International design competition a few months ago. It lost!

What won were commercial designs and in a few cases poorly made as evidenced even from the photograph.

If any of you have any connection with PGI, tell them they need glasses!

Oh, no hard feelings, not me!

You should be, if you are not already, a writer.
You would blow away Kurt Vonagart ( sp ) sorry...

Thanks guys...please keep posting as I get a kick reading your various posts.

Thanks.

F*

Gollum: I think you are very close to the truth. Time ( and its relative ) - causality - seems to be constructed out of an infinite number of possibilities in 4 space as Einstein might say. What really boggles my mind is that if you add causality as a requirement for human existence, the possible futures are greatly reduced, but possibly still nearly infinite. My guess is that there is a 'supreme being' some kind that is constantly juggling our reality to maintain the causality that we need to live. Perhaps each of us -- as a little piece of awareness of that supreme being -- have a little control over these events that unfold.

I do know for example the Hitler could not have functioned if the 'average person' had not permitted it. War, pestilence, or famine could be greatly reduced in frequency if every human being on this earth worked with common mind and goal to the same end.

But -- we are not there yet. Even now we could do alot more with what we have, if we could work together better. We could never be full masters of our fate -- but there is much room for improvement. Perhaps if we do better, the 'supreme being' will give us more to work with.

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems
of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest
and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to
admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in
explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to
others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into
the fabric of their lives." - Leo Tolstoy

Beware.

"Life is a tale,
Told by an idiot,
Full of sound and fury,
Signifying Nothing...."

W.S.

Last October's sell-off and reversal happened with 1.216 Billion shares. Today's turn around happened with 1.214 Billion shares. Curious. Virtually identical volumes. I guess stranger things have been know to happen...

I am very interested in what a few people have to say. RJ, you, Realistic and Old Gold seem to be some of the few who discuss gold without goldbug filters ( i.e. Gold is artifically being pushed down and should increase against fiat money forever ) . I usually don't have time to read all the posts here so I just scan for these key names and just read those. When somone draws one of you guys into a pissing contest, I often end up reading about the wrongness of thier origional slanders. Had you ignored them, me and anyone else with a similar reading strategy would automatically ignore them by default. Perhaps a compromise would be a simple "Person X is wrong again." response.

Thanks for all the good stuff!

My wife agrees with me that your design is beautiful!

I've seen myself with my sculpture competition attempts that art judges carry their own prejudices, fads and need to return favors with them. IMHO the trend nowadays is for thin, elongated, twisted phallic appearances even in female nudes, definately a sign of the times. Several times I've wondered whether this reflected judges having to give out b.j.s to patrons and sponsors to get the job. IMNSHO

EB: You may be right about the bull market resuming. It is quite clear that the US markets are the strongest in the world. My only take is something based on Oldman's world view -- that the US markets will go up and down with WJC's fortunes -- in a circular form of causality - where cause and effect are inextricably linked.

I will agree with you only if WJC can do that 'comeback kid' act one more time..... IMHO.

I have promises to keep - -and miles to go before I sleep, and miles to go before I sleep.

Einstein miscounted.

If say all there were was 3 dimensions we would all be frozen statues. If there were only four ( by adding time ) we would all be frames in a three dimensional pre ordained movie reel.

Has to be at least 5 if one wants the liberty of free will and wave collapse.

There are no insignificant numbers of people who already can say:
"Oh well, what the hell. I got no money, can't afford electricity anyway, they took my car, no job, no phone, can't fly anyway, so what!"
They also have never seen Gold in their pocket as money - maybe they've a Gold wedding ring if they are lucky. So all this talk of Gold is as esoteric to them as having a vote that actually means anything. These people are the disenfranchised in more ways than one. They may also be the most dangerous. They have no Gold, they have no vote, they have nothing left to lose.

I have been rubbing some acid on the computer screen for about two hours now... I am astounded...you guys are getting out there...I gotta try this on the television screen what show...talk back live...yeahhhhhhhh...

And another thing, causality isn't all as causal as it's cracked up to be. It's merely the conservation laws preserved across vacuum fluctuations.

I know you posted to me over 40 minutes ago but Kitco kinda cramped up there for a while.

I always empty my bladder and never eat a bite before a flight on Gollum Airlines these days.

That was a nice bounce today. The local news reported that the "market went up 140 at the open, then went down, then closed up 288." They neglected to say that the market went down over 200 points before going back up by way of encouraging folks to see the bright side. I wonder how many of them reports are in the stock market. All this dead cat bouncing and discussion of cats and bouncing and catnip and dogs chasing cats and dogs chasing cars, why, I'm all confused, especially as it relates to the topic of this site, gold, discussed as it is here as a child with a sore in his mouth who keeps running his tongue over it again and again, "Ouch" and "Ouch." It may be time for me to look up Paul the Gold Dog and find out what's in store for the week. Whaddaya think?

-EJ
p.s. You have to admit, my wind sock was good yesterday, no?

Definitely good wind sock. It was also wise of our pilots to refuse to fly past noon.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

Oh yes.......Has the shoulder wound from the great battle healed enough to ride with us Gouchos.
Much work to do..YYYYYYYYaaaaaaaaHHHHHHHHoooooooooooo

http://www.asiachart.com/index.html

Good review on Dow

I've been noticing the period and frequency of fluctuation in the market seems to be increasing steadily. You don't suppose stock markets have a kind of resonance frequency at which the thing flies apart?
-EJ

FWIW -- Man ( Woman ) in the street interviews on the local six o'clock news was 'reaffirming' IMO. The typical response was, "The market does this every now and then, it'll come back...", or, "I'm looking for bargains to buy..." Geez, is that all? A thousand points in three days... I got to watch that $TICK and $TRIN more carefully.

The conclusion is... NOT ENOUGH PAIN YET...............

Gollum: You are absolutely right -- reality is alot more complex than a movie with separate frames, all linked in time to a single strip on a reel. That is what it seems to us, with free will and other things apparently leading to a shift to different future reels.

I think the problem is that our concept of time is a ( uniquely? ) human concept, as I suspect that there are beings more evolved than us that can travel throughout time and space at will. Are you familiar with the 'flatlander' story often presented in Physics books? The idea is that flatlanders are 2-dimensional, so any wall -- no matter how low -- is an unsurmountable barrier. But -- we three dimensional types can just step or climb over that wall.

We think we know from Quantum Mechanical experiments that the whole universe is interconnected somehow -- instantaneously somehow/somewhen. So everything in the universe is linked, irrespective of the concept of time.

You are right that there are more than 4 dimensions. I think the current thinking is closer to 10. Michio Okaku would be a good readable reference for this. Those other dimensions are degenerate in our world view.

Another way of looking at this is to consider all spatial possibilities in the universe. Then -- time is irrelevant. Now -- we put time back in as a way to link the events around us so that a human can exist as we exist today. Again -- we come to the conclusion that something must be manipulating the reality around us so that it works for us. This is far more complex and mind boggling than parallel universes, or the concept that each universe born is brought into existence with its own laws. And -- I suspect that cycles of any kind are actually eddies in time that we can only dimly perceive when we detect the cycles.

I guess one other way of putting this is that I think the universe around us is far more rich and complex than it seems to be to us linear, time/causality-bound beings -- right at this current time -- now.

But without causality, how could we develop out intellects to become more that what we are now? Perhaps we are passing through an evolutionary process of some kind, where a minimum of intellectual development, and certain other kinds of development -- ethics, etc, are required before we reach our next stage of awareness. Our awakening.

This market will kill eventually. All this volatility with big "dips" is desensitizing Joe Sixpack. When the blast comes, they won't even hear it.


oleman... Tue, Sep 1, 8:57AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
avg MF down about 30% off its high, and joe was ready to sell some TODAY. Now they rally it WAY up so, next time, jow holds on as it dives thru 50% before he STARTS to sell. Man! They're GOOD!!!!

I think it has a lot of resonances. Sometimes the peaks and troughs hit together and everything seems calm. Sometimes a preponderance of peaks hit together abd uou have a grand super peak. Other times a preponderance of troughs hit togeher and you have super dip.

Since the times when pekas are in phase are also the times when troughs are in phase it makes it no coincdence that big bubbles are accompanied by big busts.

Sometimes tidal waves do that. If the trough comes in first, people will find it remarkable how far out the water has receeded. They'll go out to investigate seashells and pieces of shoreline never seen before....and the the big one comes in.

Agreed.

In my day job my title is Flight Systems Engineer. Really what I do is figure out how avionics systems can fail and kill you. Then change the design so that it is unlikely it will happen. If I'm good I can do this early enough in the design process that not much time and money is wasted going in the wrong direction.

What does this have to do with Kitco? Well I've looking at the vulnerabilities of our community. We are probably the quintessential cyber community. We will all probably enjoy our association as long as we desire. The weakness is the host site. There have been a couple of posting on alternative sites. One that was posted is:

http://www.rahul.net/iti/kzpg/Current/Newsgroup/index.html

Then go to alt.politics.economics.

Another ( no pun intended ) site was posted but I forgot it at work. Who ever posted it might want to post it again.

Another thing I have been doing is saving everyone's e-mail address whenever they post it. That way if something should ever happen to the site I can e-mail some folks and find out where we are. This is not to say that KITCO is going anywhere, it is just a redundant method for keeping our community together. Also since I mentioned that I have been noting other's e-mail addresses its only fair that I give mine:

strawilson@aol.com

Add me to your list if you feel like it.

GO GOLD!!

Not enough pain and still plently of wishful thinking left. A friend told me tonight he thinks the market will go back up. I ask, "Ok. Maybe you're right. Why will it go back up? If the price you pay for a stock is your bet on the future earnings of the company that issued the stock, then you are betting that corporations will resume an earlier trend in earnings increases that may have justified the prices of stocks before they dropped recently. Where is the evidence of that? Or perhaps the prices of stocks were not related to earnings but to the upward momentum of the market. That momentum appears to have stopped or perhaps reversed. So, if not for one of these two reasons, then for what reason will the market go back up." He thinks about it and says, "Because it always has?"

Will Russia get better soon? Will Latin America? Asia? Will Y2K go away even though we're sick to death of talking and hearing about it? When will the hidden excesses of this boom be known, especially in the US banking industry, that the market has not discounted yet?

Unbelievably, he has his children's college money in the stock market.

I am in dispair for my friends in the market who do not know what is occuring.

-EJ

It will remain a plaything of the rich - such as PH in LA who said in his 21:03 "And I remember thinking that my first real job at $300/week seemed like a fortune. Now, that is more like a good day's work."

Many of my friends and neighbors make $300/week. The only hope they have of owning more Gold than a wedding ring is for it to be used again as money. But PH in LA and a lot of Goldbugs don't want common folk to have much Gold. These Goldbugs are as bad as the rich and powerful who have locked Gold up in CB vaults - so as to remove it from common circulation.
These Goldbugs view 1oz coins as the minimum worth bothering with. They'd rather have their Gold in bars. There will come a time very soon where the disenfranchised will get the Gold - by force.
Let the rich, affluent elitist Goldbugs eat Gold - for they can buy no groceries with it - for we will not sell them groceries for it - at least not at anything less than a gouging price - and we will laugh all the way to our hovels.

P.S. Help the masses to hold Gold to prevent this - no handouts - just easier access - such as a return to Gold money. Saying it can not be done is a cop out. Those who wish it to be so can do it. The rest will ignore the growing storm in silence.

acts up I just oil it with tequila...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE...THUMP...uh...

LSteve: Your analysis sounds plausible, however the site you suggested does not work , please recheck the url

LSteve: Your analysis sounds plausible, however the site you suggested does not work , please recheck the url

There is no current moment and it is an illusion that we construct our own self image to be linear, time/causality-bound beings. There is only the space of unmanifest possibility and that of collapsed wave function we call the past. The one we call the future is an illusion. We are indeed flatlanders living in the interstice of collapsed and non collapsed wave function. What we call the present moment is more like a surface in time-space-possibility than a point in time-space.

Along with Mexico, Venezuela, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia,
etc...
One man's opinion, don't expect good news. These are false economies
controlled by robber barons/crooks.

They have no empathy for the global economy, nor long term vision for
their's, or their populace. Just short term bucks.

This is a BearTrap. The New World Order has a long way to go toward
civility.

The Bear will appear again when we have a true picture in Japan.
Double-talk doesn't work for long, even in Japanese.

POG rocket delayed once again, yes?

Coming to YOU soon. GOLD TAX. It will be a BIG HIT. Any gold
dug from the ground or processed from the oceans will carry
a World Heritage gold stamp and 50% proceeds to you know who.
Thats Mother Nature, she did always have to wipe miners arses
even when they were married. So its come to this. . Physical and
Mother Nature will be the only winner when it hits $800.
Lets get physical, physical, I wanna get physical
With Mother Nature naturally.
OMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

I am amazed ( NOT! ) that folks were buying Intel, Compaq, etc. Here was poor old SWC at 17 3/8 yesterday and I thought, hmmmm. But...... I didn't. Today it was up 5 3/16. What is that? Up 30% in one day.!

I had a conversation with a few folks today and their attitude is that the market will go up because it has for hundreds of years. Every drop is viewed as a buying opportunity. They can't wait to put their money in. I told one women several days ago to put her money in to a money market fund and wait a month to see what will happen. The market was about 800 points higher then. When I talked to her today, I WAS TOO NEGATIVE. What's the expression? "No good deed goes unpunished..."

Gollum, Panda: Since this has happened before, it will happen again, unfortunately. Cycles. As Oldman said, the average investor will not realize ( deep down inside ) that there is a market bear, until the market bear has been here for many months. By that time they will have lost much and experienced considerable pain and anxiety. And -- it is apparently considered acceptable to manipulate the markets so that they respond in your favor. Just as the gold traders learned how to benefit from the techniques used in the gold sales/leases by the CB's, so can the market pros learn similar techniques by watching the PPT. All one needs to do is alter the response to the market psychology slightly, and you can turn all of those baby boomers into cannon fodder. And the baby boomers will not realize what happened until they have been ground down by numerous rallies and failures.

Has anyone wondered why it took so long in the 30's before the average investor trusted the markets? They were burned then as they will be now, and years of market booms have amply fed those individuals who will take advantage of others less sophisticated in the markets than they are.

Of course, the markets could still surprise the pros, and rally. All depends on WJC, IMHO.

GOOD NIGHT ALL!

Big mergers spell big hits, City Corp and Travelers knot is a case in point. Traveler's, Solomon Smith Barney took a $360 million hit and City Corp a $299 million ding, both reputed to Russian woes. Probably the German Banks took an even bigger pounding.

Those are only the tippy tip of the iceberg. When things start to get bad enough we'll get to see more of it.....like who was dabbling im derivatives more than was prudent.

Just wait until the money banks, en mass, report losses due to Russia, Asia, or whoever else they can think of. What will Intel do for an encore in the microprocessor business? And CPQ and DELL for PCs? Just food for the BEAR...... :- ) ) He's lean and mean now, but in the fullness of time.......................

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980901/commoditie_1.html

HighRise

Big mergers spell big hits, City Corp and Travelers tying the knot is a case in point. Traveler's, Solomon Smith Barney
took a $360 million hit and City Corp a $200 million
ding, both reputed to Russian woes. Probably the German Banks took an even bigger pounding.

On the time scale of history, this has been a brief experiment. No one knows for sure how it will turn out. Will the governments that started it be able to keep the wierd new rapidly multiplying monetary slime in the petri dish? Or will they need to spray it with a gold ? Stay tuned!
-EJ

Is it really any different than that of the goldbugs. How long have goldbugs been getting kicked in the teeth? Yet they can't wait for it to drop more so they can "get bargains". Is this not what Dow investors are doing? Isn't all a in what you believe or are programed for. Personally, I feel sorry for the majority of investors that lose money often their futures whether it's equities or gold. Mostly, I feel for the 60ish people who are afraid social security won't be there and don't know where else to turn for retirement security. They don't understand markets so they follow what they hear on TV, what they hear from friends, and what some slick investment councelor tells them. Fortunately ( or unfortunately, ) the markets have backed up those claims ( till now ) and given them false security. It's too bad that one of life's hardest lessons will be learned when it's too late for them. They didn't understand, nor did they know there were choices. It's too bad everyone can't win.

"Ahhh PH....Master of the mindless, pointless, thoughtless, and irrational personal attack..." LGB/Liberty/Lurkey/BUGal/Curiouser/etc.

"Master"? Coming from you, incompetent of all the above, I take as a complement. Many thanks!!

Try actually reading my posts, sometime, and you will find they are anything but pointless, thoughtless or mindless. But then, weren't you the one who used to find ANOTHER's "riddles" incomprehensible?

With much GLEE I report DEC. GOLD UP $1.20 to $283.20

The average person feels that the world is like the neighborhood he grew up in. A guy who is, say, forty today was born just before the space age and grew up in an era of expanding markets and ne technologies.
Fiat money is what he went to work for and buys his groceries with. There have always been cars and radios and TV's in his world and never a depression.

Oh, he's heard stories, maybe seen some pictures, but it's like seeing pictures of a brontosaurus. Those things don't happen anymore.

Alas, the lessons of history and the doomed.

"40 or 50 million American citizens with a like amount of Asian and European nationals could push gold through the roof."
Quite Correct!
Just that number of Americans buying 1-ounce of Gold would make a splash of 1500 tonnes of Gold. Add the Asians and Europeans and you have a force to raise the price of Gold so that many Goldbugs would jump for joy.

So how do we get there from here - here being crying in our beer over the POG. We can get out and peddle one measly tiny Gold coin to everyone we know - that they will buy just one per week - like a payroll savings plan. These folks will spread the word. Here we are preaching to the choir. Take the religious zealots as an example - get out and sell to the masses. Take the show on the road. By 1/1/2000 each of these folks will have squirreled away 600 grains of Gold. Not much individually - but thousands of tonnes collectively! For Gold's sake just don't sit there and cry about it - let's get off our duffs and DO SOMETHING!

to wish one and all a fond adieu. Have to sleep off those pork steaks and get up early to see if I can talk any of our pilots into going up tomorrow.

Test

A bear market needs a fresh supply of unexpected bad news.

Investors are not yet out of love with the stock market. They are starting to notice that it snores, farts, and has bad breath in the morning. They will soon find out that it has teeth, too, and that every once in a while, not very often, it cracks open a can of binary nerve gas and wipes out a bunch of people. And you think you know a guy...
-EJ

scaring the s*it out of me. It is with a sad heart that I have to conclude that the markets have a Loonnnnng way to go on the downside and that the global debacle is not that far off. Talk about lemmings!

Its just unbelievable the complacency that taken hold. I ask people the same questions and they have no Good answer as to Why the market should keep going up.

If anyone at this site can tell me why it should, after being more overvalued than at any time in this century then I'd like to hear it. I have been watching the sentiment unfold for the last couple of years and it just boggles my mind how arrogant some of these analysts are with their viewpoints about the market.

Back in 1988 in Oct. someone wrote a letter to Barrons about the put - call ratio, countering someones assertion that the ratio had stopped working because, I believe specialists were now allowed to trade options for their accounts. The belief that a contrary indicator will lose it's predictive ability for that reason was absurd. They stated that the parameters ie. 30 or 40 puts to every call was not working. He stated that it was not an exact science, but rather the proper interpretation relative to the latest trend.
Back then ( in 87 pre crash ) , following sentiment indicators was not followed before like it was after the crash because if you had, you would have seen it comming from a mile away. Afterwards, it seemed like everyone became a Contrarian. Today we have a million of them but they can't IMHO see the forrest for the trees. While they are all looking at the same group of indicators and waiting for them to all flash the SELL sign, they are missing the true extremesin sentiment that they have become a large part of. The way the individual bought last Oct. after the trend in the past ( that type of selloff scaring the hell out of people ) was a huge contrary indicator. Combine the record low Mutual fund cash,5 year low on the put- call and blatant arrogance on the part of most of these analysts and it's not that hard to see. The fact that after a 1900 point decline these guys are out on shows like the today show telling people to buy instead of excersising caution is ..well..... it doesn't look good guys.

I enjoy your posts and your jousting with RJ reminds me of the knights of old in their most honourable tournaments.

Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

Gee, Grizz. Do you have a good imagination or what? How else do you get from $300/week or day to: "But PH in LA and a lot of Goldbugs don't want common folk to have much Gold. These Goldbugs are as bad as the rich and powerful who have locked Gold up in CB vaults - so as to remove it from common circulation. These Goldbugs view 1oz coins as the minimum worth bothering with. They'd rather have their Gold in bars. There will come a time very soon where the disenfranchised will get the Gold - by force."

I could assure you that nothing of the kind could be farther from the truth. But with an imagination like that...naw! Believe it or not, there is more to life than class warfare. But why talk to a fanatic about it? His mind is made up. Better to not try to confuse him with the facts.

No offence taken!

Don't feel sorry for those 60-somethings. Most are in the market for income, not capital gains. My mother's one of those. Talked to her tonight and she said she doesn't care what price stocks are as long as she's got income. This stock bear will affect prices more than earning I think. The dollar is what I worry about for her. That hits earnings.

I watched NBC news tonight and the market spin, even on the local news, was slick. Compared the market to real estate ( implying real estate was overvalued ) . "Stay in the market and you'll still come out ahead" is the message. Amazing. The Cult of Marketing...a bunch of friggin' liars.

Time to get some sleep. I wonder many will sell tomorrow to cover their margin calls from Monday or just call it quits after getting back some of what they lost Monday so they can call it even for the year.
-EJ

It would be nice if the gold and silver shares did what Stillwell did today, wow, and a precious metal stock to boot.
Maybe its a good omen.

I think with the small caps, a fairly consistant track record of profitablity is most important, this along with mininmal debt, low mining costs, solid cash flows and earnings seems to be the right order, but then some major can always ravage them, especially if they are cash rich.

The number of shares out is important to project earnings and a potential price target and is better than debts that may put them out of business.

But when the tide rises all ships seem to be lifted well above normal levels, just like some of the non-mining stocks have been over priced.