Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:02 - ID#225236)
PPT documented in detail

Question: if US gov does things like that, do we really have a free market?! How is that different from the old Soviet Politbureau deciding what the exchange rate ought to be?

Well, just like the Soviet actions did create an illussion of success ( at the cost of Eastern Europe ) , so does the current US fake-market situation benefit US at the cost of US's allies. For now!

If US constantly buys spoos futures at dips don't they set themselves up for a $500 billion fiasco when the stunt stops working? After all, after every successfull con like that the pressure must be growing from the Bubba camp to do more of the same!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:06 - ID#284255)
Joe Boivin Offers a Grim Assessment
California Is Way Behind; State Agencies Were Wrong
De Jager's Site Posts Brilliant Article. A Collapse Looms.
ANALOGY: A Hurricane

And more at:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:10 - ID#373403)
End Game
Things feel really bad regarding the global financial architecture. I dumped everything last week on the Russian default news
and bought BEARX.

I think the mutual funds are buying with their dry powder reserve. Municipalities are also in this market.

The default stigma has been pierced. All third world countries face the choice of enslavement by these dollar denominated loans to the west or simply default. Indonesia wanted to default real badly and we sent Defense Secretary William Cohen to help "calm things down in the streets". Now the president goes to Russia. Defaults will bring down the entire system. Forget everything else, Y2K, inflation, deflation, stock market drops.

Loan defaults are a loss of your deposit. First it is the banks capital, then your deposit, and then the "full faith and credit of the
United States Government". Imagine when Japanese banks are finally forced to write off these $600 billion in non-performing
loans. You think everyone elses loan portfolios are in better shape than the number two economy and worlds greatest savings nation?

If not by action ( default ) then by deception ( printing ) . At least the Russians had the guts to admit it and get on with it. This is not
going away without all excess liquidity being drained and money supply restricted to match the level of declining global production. Barring that, globalization will have to give way to regionalization or more restrictive tiering of economic interaction between nations of differing output and consumption capacities.

Either way, the emperor has no clothes an now people are having to admit it...


(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:18 - ID#284255)
J Stack
INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Tuesday, September 1, 1998
It's not hard to find a lot wrong with today's rally. For example, the DJ
Utility Average rallied 0.0 points. The DJ Transports rallied 1pt. To give
you a perspective on the breadth... over the past 40yrs, there have been 33
previous DJIA rallies of 3%, and only 5 have seen an advance/decline ratio
this weak. On the Nasdaq, there have been 14 rallies of 3% or more, and only
1 has seen and advance/decline ratio this weak.
The question is not whether the "correction" is over... the real questions
are #1 ) Has anything changed in the previous bear market confirmation? and
#2 ) Has the valuation and sentiment risk been substantially reduced. To
both, the answer is "No."

So what thoughts can we add...?
1 ) The bear market is NOT over. That is from both a technical standpoint,
and our belief that far too many investors would give anything to get out of
their stocks at higher levels to see much of a rally.
2 ) Today saw a spiked reversal on record volume. That establishes a critical
short-term bottom @ DJIA 7539. It will reduce the risk of a crash IF that
level holds through this week. Once broken ( whether next week, next month,
or whenever ) , it will mark a key confirmation of a bear market that NO ONE
on Wall Street will be able to deny.

Perhaps the best advice... sit back and relax. This market is rebounding
from a near-record oversold level ( it simply went down too fast ) . If
Monday's close is broken in the next week, we still have a "crash" scenario.
In the meantime, we suspect this action has brought in perhaps the last
available "buy-on-dips" cash from the sidelines.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:19 - ID#284255)
Abby de bull Nightly business report
Wall Street "Bull" Abby Cohen Reacts To Rebound

SUSIE GHARIB: Well, our guest tonight is one of Wall Street's most respected
strategists and she's still bullish about stocks. Abby Joseph Cohen of
Goldman Sachs is the co-chair of the firm's investment policy committee. And
as we told you earlier, she raised her asset allocation today to 72 percent
in stocks. She also told clients we expect little impact on U.S. economic
growth, corporate profitability and cash
flow. Hi, Abby, nice to have you with us this evening. Thank you for joining
us. Let's start with what you said about profits. The Commerce Department
recently released that corporate profits in the second quarter were down,
actually down 1 1/2 percent. And anecdotal evidence that we are getting
about the third quarter, companies like Applied Materials ( NASDAQ:AMAT ) , 3M
( NYSE:MMM ) saying, warning, that their profits in third quarter are going to
be down. So it's kind of hard to be excited about third quarter profits. How
can you be bullish when it looks like profits are going down?
for more than 10 years, there's been a very wide gap in the Commerce
Department profits and the profit data that most investors look at. For
example, S&P 500 profits have been rising at a 5 to 7 percent annualized
rate in recent quarters and those of course are the numbers that we use in
our work. Many companies have begun preannouncements. This is something we
have seen now for several different quarters and it's
something that is more of a policy. They want to get the bad news out first.
We think that third quarter profits will be roughly on par with what we saw
in the first half of this year.
GHARIB: And that's even with all of the problems that are going on in
international economies. Russia, Japan, possibly Latin America and the
impact of that on American companies. How do you explain that away?
COHEN: Because the biggest problem for us in terms of the global economy is
Japan and the rest of Asia, and has been now for more than a year in
emerging Asia and for several years now in Japan. In terms of the size of
their economy and the proportion of our trade, that's enormous. And it's
that is already factored into profits and to our work. Russia, our trade
with Russia, is less than 1 percent of the total. The nations in Latin
America that may now be having problems represent less than 3 percent of our
trade. It's Japan, the rest of Asia, already weak, already factored in.
GHARIB: All right. Abby, what would it take for you to turn bearish? What
would have to happen? What would worry you enough that you'd tell your
clients it's time to sell?
COHEN: We have been concerned about the global economy now for more than two
years so this is what we have been monitoring and looking to see if it was
getting worse on the margin. Our belief at this point is that the major
economies that matter to us are not dramatically worsening. That would
include Japan.
It's been bad for a while, not necessarily getting much worse. And Europe,
which shows signs of improving. So that's one thing that we're looking for.
The other thing that would disturb us
of course would be signs of domestic deterioration. There are no such signs.
U.S. employment continues to grow. Jobs are being created. Wages are rising.
Domestic demand here in the United States remains quite solid and I think
that's very important.
GHARIB: All right, you told your clients in this report today that you're
still very keen on technology stocks and financial stocks and some stocks in
the retail sector. Tell us why those groups and specific names.
COHEN: Those three sectors have been very hard hit in recent sessions and we
think enormous value has been created. Among the banks for example, in
financial services, NationsBank ( NYSE:NB ) , NB&A. Technology, a wide
variation of possibilities. Microsoft, ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) , Automatic Data
Processing ( NYSE:AUD ) and among the domestic cyclicals, retailers like
Federated ( NYSE:FD ) , airlines like Delta ( NYSE:DAL ) .
GHARIB: OK. Thank you very much for coming and we really appreciate you
giving us your insight on this wild market we've been having. And we've been
speaking with Abby Joseph Cohen of
Goldman Sachs.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not
necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.
Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be
considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1998 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:25 - ID#242303)
The PPT is there to protect the wealth of those who get their huge and ..
unjustifies incomes from the market. The Wall Street partners, and traders. After all if the illusion is broken, the game comes to a crashing end.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:25 - ID#373284)
to the fin that shares, Namaste' and a gulp to asked earlier I just now noticed
due to the sight running funky...about the Y2K piece...I kinda skimmed it because essentially as far as I am concerned the guy was preaching to the choir...I am preparing more and more each day...everyday I either get something or think of something else...but I am constantly thinking about it in the back of my Mumm is the only one in the family that understands the variables...I try to tell people about it...I don't press the issue, but I feel in the proper setting...lunches, dinners and such...most people have still not heard about it...sorry state of affairs...truly it is...

Oh yes...I wanted to tell you...that the fin that shares pages are excellent...gulp to ya on that one...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:30 - ID#401460)
Talk the Market Up for the Boss

Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs works for Robert Rubin, Secretary of the Treasury, and Partner @ Goldman Sachs.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:42 - ID#290281)
Who is gonna own Florida??
oleman . . Tue, Sep 1, 11:40PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
If I'm wrong about this market---and I sure can be wrong ( I just dont STAY wrong ) -----then we have just started the most powerful bull move in YEARS. The market is so sold out that the old highs will be surpassed with ease. If I am right, we'll have a powerful, bone-jarring rally for 2 to 5 days, then the bottom will literally drop out. One way hum1 owns Florida, the other way I do.: )

Old Soldier
(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:43 - ID#185274)
In the time of the breaking of nations
Sharefin, yes, I read every word of Toms take. I did not comment for several reasons. He basically is right and thus needs no comment. Worse, he has given up, and by his own admission can only imagine scenarios that match his meager capabilities. It saddened me beyond words. He is a nice and good man and he will die. He knows it too. What a tragedy. It is a tragedy that will be repeated millions of times. Precious few are mentally prepared and physically ready. They are locked into denial because they have no choices acceptable too them.

To me one of the greatest horrors of Y2K is the large and increasing number of people who have simply given up. Those that have done so now are among the best and brightest. They are smart and logical enough to see the truth about the future and courageous enough to see the truth about their insufficiency to deal with that future.

I am an ironically lucky man. I have spent all my adult life training and preparing for Y2K. I did not know that until very recently but it is true. By luck and quirk of personality, the skills, knowledge and abilities I have accumulated are exactly matched to what is to come. I have been the odd man all my life. It is so strange to find that now my time has come. I say this with no joy or egotism. I say this with dread and a quiet confidence. I have fought many battles. I have been victorious in all of them. Not because I am foolish and brash but because I am careful, skillful, ruthless, and determined. This time, my family is at stake. I will not fail.

I will cheerfully provide advice to any here who want it. I will not argue with anyone. This situation is well passed the point where arguing is of any use or even fun.

"War brings out the best and worst in men.' GEN Robert E. lee

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:44 - ID#401460)

Gold ( CMX )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:46 - ID#373403)
Abby Cohen
Be the fall guy for us when this blows up in our face and you get a sizable bonus. Once the bear hits you should want to retire rich anyways.

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:48 - ID#341297)
woopieeeeeeee!!!! what a ride!
I hope everybody is enjoying this rollercoaster ride! Me thinks the ride
could even get wilder. Why do you suppose they changed the so called
circuit breaker. To go from 350 pts. to 10% of lasts months average
( 875 pts.? ) TO protect the public? I don't buy that one.It might just
be so the big fish could swallow the little fish.Might just have to try
this new ride out to "see" if it works. Fellow GBs let's not get laughing
to hard. ME thinks the shiney ONE could take a nasty hit. Look at gold-yen chart at privateer. He don't think in dollar per oz. HE thinks in yen per oz. cause he just happens to buy everything in yen . Pssst he losing yen. Why not sell and take the profit he has made? None of us hasn't
done that once, maybe that could be what markets are made of. Me thinks
that gap at 262-265 ( May 79 ) could be approuched very violently. O.I.
in futures should be going down if we are at the bottom,not up!

Dave in CO
(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:51 - ID#229141)
@Petronious - PPT
Thanks for the article by A.E-P.

If questioned, the administration would deny that the PPT ( Plunge Protection Team ) and/or the RAT ( Rise Assurance Team ) has ever bought the SnP. And we can trust their word implicitly.

Among their responsibilities, in my opinion, lies the POG.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:53 - ID#286249)
The man with the wool for our eyes has been BUSY!

OK, explain to me again how the dollar's value is reflected in another currency's price of gold.

On Tuesday, May 13, 1997: AU: was 41,513.1

USD:=0.008394, :USD=119.1300 ~ Yen worth more against the USD, right?
POG:USD was 348.1672
PPP: was 348.1672

 POG 41478.1

On Sat 8/15/98: AU: was 41478.1

USD: :=0.006838, ::USD=146.250 ~ Yen worth less against the USD, right?
POG:USD was 283.850
PPP: was 283.866

 POG 41513.1

Just how weak do YOU reckon the yen is? {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:54 - ID#373284)
Old Soldier, Namaste' I dunno, the worse things get...people do not realize what
they can do until faced with it...writing about giving up...and actually giving up...two different things in my book at least...maybe that's just the way I see it...and I am sure you have seen more in your lifetime than I I will let it rest there...oh yeah...gulp to ya...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 00:56 - ID#338111)
Feeling sorry for Boris Yeltsin
He doesn't look like a well man. Tired, disoriented and his country's economy is in tatters.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:02 - ID#290281)
Looks like they are trying to rally the masses
Form letter sent out to investors by Charles Schwab:

As a fellow investor, I share your concern about the recent market volatility. Like many investors, you may be wondering whether you should make any change to your existing investment portfolio in light of the recent market conditions.

While you are the best judge of your personal situation, I wanted to share my own philosophy about investing in times such as these.

Historically, the stock market has experienced quite a few corrections, sometimes declining more than 20% in a short period. But over time, the market has recovered, and in fact, has gone on to achieve substantial long-term growth. I have seen many studies that indicate stocks or stock funds have outperformed all other types of investments in the long term, in spite of increased volatility over shorter periods.

I am a firm believer not only in our economy, but in the strengthening global economies as well. Because of this, I'm confident that the stock market, despite the increased risks, remains the best investment for long-term investors.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:02 - ID#264289)
Gollum's 22:17 and EJ's 23:12
In defense of Gold's apparent failure as a "store of wealth"
Might I wax metaphoric and paraphrase Gollum's statement to JTF:

"And another thing, causality isn't all as causal as it's cracked up to be. It's merely the conservation laws preserved across vacuum fluctuations."

Substituting "fiat currency" and "gold" where appropriate:

And another thing, fiat currency isn't all as causal as it's cracked up to be. It's merely the conservation laws preserved across vacuum ( ground state=gold ) fluctuations.

Tranlsation: fiat currencies are mere fluctuations or shadows of the ultimate wealth reality: gold.

And as JTF stated in his "The Great Fiat Money Experiment":

"On the time scale of history, this has been a brief experiment. No one knows for sure how it will turn out. Will the governments that started it be able to keep the wierd new rapidly multiplying monetary slime in the petri dish? Or will they need to spray it with a gold ? Stay tuned! "

Here is a quote I found; "From the Old Testament we learn that during the reign of king Nebuchadnezzar, an ounce of gold bought 350 loaves of bread. And ounce today will still buy about 350 loaves of bread."

While the statistics concerning gold's wealth-storing ability over the last 60 years have been used to demonstrate the dismal performance of gold in this capacity, I like gold's performance when looked at over the last 3000 years.

Dough has risen as far as it is going to. It is ready for the oven. Got dough or have you got gold?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:07 - ID#290281)
B.I.S. accumulating gold
Incidentally, the banker to the central banks, the B.I.S. has been accumulating gold for many months according to one of my best sources.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:12 - ID#342376)
Let's not forget GoGold's prediction....
Gold up $2, two days in a row for the turn in gold, $325 by 11/11

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:13 - ID#262242)
letter coming your way.

Old Soldier, I to have ran the type of race you are running. I will not fail. The whole world is preparing to shatter before our eyes. Our leader is a sticken man and our markets are on the edge of the cliff. The Y2K disaster is on the horizon. Any body who does not prepare for castastrophe has his head in the sand.

Thanks for the jokes Reify.

Letter coming your way Robert Pfeil

God Bless you all

Old Soldier
(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:15 - ID#185274)
The will to live
Tolerent1, You are right, talk and doing are not the same thing. But, you know that usually talkers talk a good one and then fail to produce in the clutch. This type is commonly known as a bullshit artist. What we are discussiing now is a different thing entirely. We are discussing good men who know they have not the wherewithal to cope with the enormity of Y2K. Will some press on anyway? Yes, but they will be like the tens of thousands at Ypres, the Somme and Gallipoli; noble but irrelevant and insignificant.

I am not pulling punches here and I will not. This Y2K is going to be too bad for PC mollycoddling. Yes there is still time to get ready if you have any start at all and an all consuming desire to get to the other side. But those people must get with it and do it now! Find your highly decorated combat infantryman and let him teach you those formerly useless skills that will soon be vital. Similarly, find that fisherman, hunter, mechanic, electrician, mid-wife, cook, farmer, cattleman, bee keeper, lumberjack, sailor, tailor, horseman, chemist, doctor, dentist, leader and chief and learn. Learn and prepare.

One of the worst things I have ever seen is men simply giving up. It is horrible when men who could live if they would just give up. Believe me, it happens more often than you may think.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:18 - ID#373284)
BillinOregon, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...I will keep an eye out for it...
and with that...a good evening to all...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:20 - ID#219363)
Another nice day to be alive, the 2nd day of September, autumn on it's way soon enough. Leaves are going to change, the breeze will get a little cooler in the evenings, sky a little clearer, time for the harvest. I love this time from the beginning of September through the end of October and into November. Things start to quiet down and cool off, people spend more time together, families spend time with one another, people celebrate a good summer, and prepare for a quiet winter together. It's just a nice time.

I've said this in other posts, but I honestly think the markets, and the economies of the world are due for a slowdown. It's a lot more clear and obvious now with a big hit, which is nice. It's just time for everyone to slow down a little, time for the world to take a deep breath and sit on the porch for a little while. I don't know about everyone else, but I could use it, and I suspect that most Americans, indeed, most people in the world could use it too. The emerging markets need this time. After being so explosive for the past few years, it's time for them to pull back and take a breather too, give their financial system time to clean itself out before increasing any further. The strong always make it through the roughest winters, and they come out even stronger on the other side. It's necessary to create a cohesive core, a strong center. Nothing increases forever. It's just the way of things.

I raise a glass to you all and wish you the best for the coming autumn.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:23 - ID#255284)
The Will to Live
Old Soldier


There is one over-riding lesson to be learned from stories of survival at the extremes --

"You will survive, if you believe you can."

If you believe you CAN survive, you will look for ways to ensure to can.
If you believe you CAN survive, you can plan to survive.

Don't panic. Sit. Do nothing. Wait for the panic to pass. Then PLAN TO SURVIVE.

This has been a public service announcement on behalf of the human race.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:28 - ID#373284)
Old Soldier, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...well said...saw your post when I posted
to to BillinOregon...have a good evening Sir...

Old Soldier
(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:32 - ID#185274)
Bill, Aurator, Tollerant1
Men at arms one and all. Keep Up the Fire!!! I will be away for a time in my fighting position. Do not quit your posts until properly relieved.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:50 - ID#316193)
Thanks for the post about Charles Schwab. In 1996, Schwab sold
$80,000,000 of stock in his investment company. There was never
any explanation that I was able to find. Now he is saying,
don't do what I do. Hey, wait just a minute. Do you think
we're all stupid?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:51 - ID#255284)
felicitations to all
Old SOldier

I have just watched Mitchener's "Texas" on video. That's me on the roof of the mission house. I'll wait for good men and true to relieve me, doing my duty, I shan't abandon my post.

Can't believe I've not seen this first class story on film before. Darned thing had me pining for the range. Does the Brazos still run muddy?

Thank you for your kind words. Lest events overtake us, may I say that I too wish you the best of luck, the finest of company, the happiest of families and the most abiding peace.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:51 - ID#220325)
Themissinglink ** Great design
Did you make the mold and cast it yourself?? I have done a bit of centrifugal casting myself and know that if you made the mold you are indeed talented. The design itself expresses your ability.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 01:52 - ID#215379)
One smarter country
The National Bank of Poland has increased its gold reserves by almost
one million ounces ( now over 3 million ) . They figure gold as a reserve, will hold its value. THEM POLISH ARE SMART.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:03 - ID#402151)
blue collar investors

So I asks my co-worker if he sold out yet. "I'm a longterm investor" he says. I say, "Everything you put in since last August is gone." "But in the longterm", he says, "I'll be making 10-15% a year." I say, "You should be happy with 5-8%." Mr.Neophyte laughs. He's got inside information. He has a broker who imparts the wisdom of the ages to him. He is a smart investor. He is the 90's version of the under-the-mattress saver who just keeps putting it away until retirement when he will reach for his stash that his helpful broker has magically multiplied for him out of the goodness of his heart.

Heard the self-confident 30ish dude from Motley Fool belittling some older guy who kept wanting to bring up history and bear markets. Hope these guy hang around for some input a year from now. Oh well, they'll be able to impart their wisdom gained from the great depression of 1999 to their grandchildren. "We were young and foolish, and lacked perspective" they'll say.

Don't know, but this bear may take a year to unfold. Might make it through Oct with no further damage just to make everyone look foolish. The hungry bears will be overanxious and wrong on timing. The bulls will gain courage from the failed doomsayers and be wrong on direction.

Bought a little physical gold today. Helped out ny local coin dealer. He said last week there was a lot of interest in gold, not much this week. Cheap gold, not stock jitters, I s'pose.

Paul Gold__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:12 - ID#21484)
Crown shareholders approve takeover
Shareholders of Crown Consolidated Gold Recoveries Limited has approved the takeover bid by Durban Roodepoort Deep. Detail at DROOY's website at

(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:19 - ID#284255)
"The Will to Power" by Friedrich W. Nietzsche

An amazing book of why we are who we are.

I think many here are survivors,
Definately thinkers.

Old Soldier
I don't endorse his view rather finding it startling.
I also see it full of hope for humanity.
After the chaos.

I too believe in the strength of one's spirit.
The will to power and achieve.

Humanity will endure.

I hope there are many like you to help guide the way.
Somehow I think we're going to need all the 'will' we can muster.

It's definately going to be entertaining.

The best we can do is to help those who will listen.
As time unfolds more will lend their ears.
To these we can share our knowledge.

Thanks for the thanks.
The page is steadily growing.
New links are being added daily from the many Kitco posters.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:19 - ID#252127)
They don't want their countries destroyed and then controled by the IMF

and why should we foot the bill for the takeover.

Mahathir fixes Maylasian Ringit at 3.80/dollar and puts foreign exchange control into effect. Yesterday Taiwan made trading in Soros funds illegal and talk is that Hong Kong will institute exchange controls. Looks like a a new trading block may be taking form.

lefty kiwi__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:42 - ID#32176)
CNN yesterday
They showed a graaph yesterday relating to onflow of funds into the share market by investment funds etc .....many many many months of large inflows of capital say average $10 billion per month . But last month negative $1.9 billion .... say out .5% of whats gone in or whatever ....but the markets down 25% .
Don,t the sheeple understand the price is only the price if your buying .... there is no price if everyone wants to sell ......if you are stupid enough to want to sell physical gold however ....thats different ( someone will give you paper for the real stuff ) as quick as a wink , ( try selling a house in NZ ... not easy ) .
What I find really difficult to come to grips with is come I am so clever and everyone else I know ( including my wifes friends is so Dumb ) and they were in the sharemarkets for the last 3 years whilst I was in gold . Hopefully it may be a case of he who laughs last laughs longest .
Aurator suggested I tell you that the " lefty " bit relates to my bowling arm at cricket .... not political philosphy .

Forgive any spelling errors ... I am just in from the 19th ....tooo many beers .... I shot 71 ( par 70 ) ....17 pars one bogey and didn't hole a decent putt all day .
Sorry to brag but I will probable shoot 85 next time on the course .

(Wed Sep 02 1998 02:48 - ID#284255)
Oldman's calls have a quick SAR.
Last week it was SP down to 900 area by weeks end.
A good call.

Now a bull rocket?
SP 1200+++

I guess volatility is in the air.

Wonder if he SAR'd on the POG???

I think this rally will be the clincher.
If the sellers step back up to bat watch out.

Swing chart

Note the failure to rally in the swing compared to Oct rally.
Different times I guess?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 03:08 - ID#273227)
Thanks for link to AVID archive. I'm planning on checkout out your webpage this weekend - including the Tom's article.

EB - Put new Sensicord R300 shafts in the new irons. Played for the first time today with them. Really nice - would recomend them. Whistling Straights on Monday - I've had the tee time for almost 3 months.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 03:15 - ID#252127)
They don't want their countries destroyed and then controled by the IMF

and why should we foot the bill for the takeover.

Mahathir fixes Malaysian Ringit at 3.80/dollar and puts
foreign exchange controls into effect.

Yesterday Taiwan made trading in Soros funds illegal and talk is that Hong Kong will institute exchange controls.
Looks like a new trading block may be taking form, one whose sovereignty is unemcumbered by international elite.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 03:58 - ID#284255)
Bull rally in Europe

My pleasure. Don't get lost ( ;- ) ) )

Any links you want added - just post them here.
And I'll add them.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 04:11 - ID#284255)
Oldman - avid chatter
I been short almost everything on the board in the way of real "stuff" since last year. I think almost everything is now ready to have bounces of significance. I started flattening out today, and will be net long "stuff" tomorrow. I still expect lower prices almost all across the board, but some markets deserve a swing trade on the long side here, IMO. Went long HGz today, for example.

Closed all shorts today. Will reenter soon, probably first of next week. JPN was a good one. Shows you that you shouldnt worry so much about entry, if the trade is good. As I posted here, I shorted it on the day of the big spike up and was filled more than TEN bucks under the day's high. Still made almost 20 bucks/share in a couple of weeks. more........

Today followed 3 hard down days, the last of which was an extended sown bar of selling. today opened within the range of ytd, went down and took out the low, then rallied. If you placed an order to BUY when price rallies back thru the open under these circumstances every time its happened in the last decade, how much $$$ would you have? topx and I both bot it UNDER ytd low, but that may be a little strong medicine. I'll answer the question: There is no better buy in the markets than that buy.more.......

I use ma's to keep me with the trend. I enter daytrades off wupport and resistance. If I told you what I consider Sup and Res to be, then you'd know all I know, ant that wouldnt be fair to my estate, would it? I've posted enough trades here, in great detail, to make a living for anyone who would use them. Most fokes wont use anything that they dont pay for. So they buy stuff from guys who cant make a living trading, and then wonder why it doesnt make them rich. Go figure.

How many times in your lifetime has the dow whipped the 200 MA the FIRST time it approached it from the south side? As an old Ky. boy, I NEVER bet a horse to do something he aint never been able to do before. Can happen, but aint likely. more....

If I'm wrong about this market---and I sure can be wrong ( I just dont STAY wrong ) -----then we have just started the most powerful bull move in YEARS. The market is so sold out that the old highs will be surpassed with ease. If I am right, we'll have a powerful, bone-jarring rally for 2 to 5 days, then the bottom will literally drop out. One way hum1 owns Florida, the other way I do.: )

further to the prev post. Many things have been posted here by several posters---I hope I'm one of them---that you can use to make $$$. Unfortunately you gotta glean the kernels from a mountain of chaff. Others beside me have mentioned over the years the fact that three hard days of selling in a row sets up the buy on the 4th day. But this trade, like all the other good ones is HARD to take. The better a trade is in the markets, the better it is. I ahve zero faith in the astro stuff that ski uses. But he CAN make $$ using it. Many people do. now, pay attention to this, cause its really BIG: It will work for him because it causes him to take action, without regard to his EMOTIONS. Many times---if he really is successful---hnis trades will be 180 degrees opposed to what he THINKS about the particualar mke at the time. Those are the BEST trades. If you cant buy spoos after they have fallen 150 handles in 3 days, when CAN you buy them. They GOTTA rally, or the world is comin to an end, fer godssakes. But EMOTION wont let you do it. So, you gotta find a way to take the emotion out of it and do it. The trade so many of the chatters are using that I put on here is very hard to take, because the first puillback AFTER the ma is whipped always occurs at a time when the traders MIND is still following the OLD trend. the e-wavers can explain what I just said, but few of them can actually take the trade.

If its a bear, all you gotta do is put a MA you trust on a timeframe you like for i/d trading, and sell the first bounce after the ma turns down and price tests it from the underside. Hell, if it works 14 of the time, it'll make yhou well in a bear. Talk about risk/reward! look at these moves lately. I was only in the market for 1 1/2 hours this mnorning, but it was more points than I made ANY day before 10/87. Gotta make hay while the sun shines. These days dont come many times in a trader's life. Sleepy. gotta go soon.

For the most part, yes. And you can trade it that way. But there'll come a time when you KNOW that the retest is gonna hold. Experience. Experience IS the best teacher----cause the tuition is so durn high,: ) ~pooooffff~

grizz.. on gold... in the early to mid 80's when I was looking at what should be expected of gold and where it would bottom... Based on e waves and fibo nimbers, I believed that gold must go at least below 180 and possible as low as 105 ( think that was the number ) . well 180 was definitely a number. After 15 years and gold never did the low thing, I have often questioned my math and brains also. but now I see all that coming back into play. Gold never made it's proper correction.. maybe it will this time. I have bought gold for a bounce a time or two but I have not held a long term position since gold was 520. Cashed out within $1 of the rebound high. If gold does decline to under $180 and does so with proper ewave structure, I will be a very serious buyer for the long haul. It will be at the bottom!!!!! Silver by the way made proper corrections and should not decline in the same proportions as gold. It will go down but by much less %.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 04:15 - ID#290281)
We buy, We hold, We retire!

"I'm a little concerned," said Anthony Delgaudio, a 37-year-old construction worker from Staten Island. "It did not scare me to the point
where I would not invest. ... I think it is a buyer's market."
Delgaudio said he believed his feelings reflected those of most Main Street investors: "We buy, we hold, we retire. It does not have the
same effect as the real players who buy and sell each day."

(Wed Sep 02 1998 04:30 - ID#284255)
Haiku for Yk2
Millenium parties
with loud music, lights and joy;
then, how cold!

Stupid programmer,
think ahead next time, when the
power's back.

Windows 98 is
compliant with minor bugs,
store water!

Hire more programmers
for Y2k Bug now--oops,
lights are out!

Y2k is just
a scam for consultants--hey
Martial law!

Two digits lost,
the railroad switch spills coal--

(Wed Sep 02 1998 04:46 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Looks to be time to be a bit wary of long the long bond. A tic that I don't like has appeared. Generally gives 'notice'. Changes in the 'air' methinks.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 04:53 - ID#185448)
Chicken man
Rollercoaster ride - thats what it really is. Watch them Euro-bourses, gratefully following WSt in exuberant irrationality, volatility at its best. The overture, not the postlude IMO.

Norways Krone and the Greek Drachma ( Non-Euros ) under pressure, also the Spanish peseta, and thats interesting, as maybe we will be able to catch a glimpse of Duisenberg at work. Kinda flank attack to the Euro?? Could name some other candidates to weaken it. And if I can, others can too. Watch the Merkandollar and the POG to make out, what they sell first. My guess is the yellow. Sorry.

When making biz with the former soviet union it was common sense to credit delivery of goods and plants in a very very generous way. Watching the performance of banks and companies engaged in eastern-trades shows - h - some concern.

Comment of the day from a banker: "The russian crisis is no problem, as we have taken appropriate steps in our balance-sheets..."

Prepare for the Wurst.

Did you know that some of Nietzsches thoughts look a little bit different, if you consider that he was raised in girls dresses up to the age of nine ( I think ) by his Mum?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:00 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Gold has 'deigned' to cross above Dec 283 tonight. Thought it probably would. Looks like many of these 'resistance' levels will be crossed in the middle of the night in lots of 'stuff'. Support levels also. Be aware.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:16 - ID#255284)
The Wrst is yet to come.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:19 - ID#284255)
For those who like Avid's sense of humour
And this is just a sample - great reading.
There is so much more...

this could be a good time for a short trade to new lows ... but wave 4 up may not be finished yet

hope no one starts turning total bull here. sheesh. this isn't gonna make it past the 200 ma... today set in the perfect bottom on cash. It's also the perfect fake-out. THEY HAVE NO MORE MONEY- this is a technical bounce. It can't defy the law of cash. all submitted in my lunatic opinion.

This week on teletubbies: "Bubbles" Po has fun blowing bubbles at everything in Teletubbyland, then the Teletubbies watch some children making their own bubbles. Laa-Laa plays catch with the other Teletubbies, then they all dance a happy dance and the stock market rallies

obviously its just one of an infinite combinations...not to be taken seriously....just a fun excersise in building a chart in my head......I don't believe in market premonition...but it sure is fun when it happens like you guessed it would

completely agree, fwiw. 'crash' by 9/19 is my new motto. looking to accumulate at least a few puts when vix gets to low 30's, I hope. this rally was enuff to put it up for a week or more IMO, but then watch out. can spoos lead when chicago is an hour behind new york?...just don't understand ;~ )

i agree- it's a two dayer that can barf at anytime.

does anyone else have 9/9 for da top?? 9/4-9/9 are dancing through my head.

foz: there are no certainties, but there are strong probabilities at times ... I think it is a high probability that we see lower lows this week ... then we get the spook 'em rally

there's no waaay this thing should have retreated nearly linearly to late jan lows in the context of an ongoing bull.

absolutely....but you gotta separate 'hope' which may be influenced by your position...and the power of human recall,recognition, and imagination....along with a healthy dose of effective money management

should have trouble w/ 200 dma ( what is it, about 1050 on spu? ) and retrace back below 1000. but reasonable chance that we will go back up significantly higher after that. new highs? got me. 1100? above that is still very likely imo.

I'll only believe da bull now if we get those irates cut, I'm dang mad with ALAN.

wouldn't look for fed to cut rates to help stocks. spoos only this am on lows got to where greenie thought they should be in july

Actually heard today that it was a lot of small investors buying stocks. Could that be the case?

they should make it tough on us bears over the next few weeks....we will start questioning our own judgement....I think it best right now to set a point or a pattern the market needs to make to prove us wrong.....while we're still sane

I know! I Know! Today was "The Clinton Summit Rally" Get the spin doctors!!!! Wall Street Stands Behind Clinton Russian Policy!!!!

i for one am listening to lunatics these days : ) watch out for more fuss over russian gov to shake things up. looks to me like communists really want yeltsin out. that said i am playing the long side now, but very carefully. missed a good sell this am though, because i tried to get in on a limit order.

the first retracement rally is a new bear market can be very sharp and strong ... Prior to the 1987 "relief rally" occurring, Bob Beckman wrote: "A strong rally should now be expected ... During the rallying phase many investors will believe that the bearish forces are expended. Most will hold the view that the bull market is once again underway." ... it might fizzle out after a 50% retracement, it could go as high as 80% or more

Anyway the chart speeks very very heavy volume which normaly means at least a short term bottom.

for me it will be how this thing trades the second bounce off the lows ( daily chart ) we downcrash? continue to rally? retrace 50% of the swing then upcrash? far as levels, for the bull continuing scenario to be proved, we gotta make new highs...plain and simple...but it should be traded like a bull after a successful test and rally off the lows.

I agree ... only new record-highs would suggest a continued bull ... even then it's feasible that the Dow could make a new high with Nasdaq and Russell indices far below their record-highs ... the secondary stocks ( e.g. Russell 2000 ) peaked in April

``We are already totally dependent on America,'' said Natasha Lyubimova, a Russian housewife. ``Clinton is playing a game with our economy.''

: having said that, I think it's very unlikely that the relief rally will retrace more than 80% even on the Dow ...

if this is a 'grand super suds poo baa', the swings will be large - indicating a possible major top

I think we test thurs at the test would be the most bearish thing I could think of....scary thought

things gotta test...gonna be scary....may not successfully....possible even that we have seen the highs in sept.....but probably will get at least one followthrough day here

if you check later, thanks, I've been following pjrl's ideas with interest as they dovetail with my own preconceived ideas, but this action needs immediate clearing up if that idea, end of corrective period, is true, quite frankly, I thought today stunk in the PM, it ain't acting like no new impulse IMO, runner or no runner. ole, help??? pjrl was correct this pm, the action was quite weak for a new rally phase to have begin YET, and if we are climbing a ladder that high, new highs will still give plentyo profit IMO.

I meant using an old fashioned breakout of those highs should give hundreds od spoo points up, so I ain't buying down here with any real $.

goldman IPO at stake - expect more rigging than the constellation

was this a broken fiddle string, bounce?

so either that was one quick bearmarket, or it's act 1, scene 1 of a big bear...

equity p/c 0.79, thats huge. still massive put buying with volatility near record levels, thats gotta be read as bullish

The Wild times have only just BEGUN... I expect many days both up and down just like the last two...

dgoto- amazing to se the yen back so quickly to 136 level is this the time to buy the greenback do u think? I've always thought it will get to 150 before starting its long journey up again, besides the interest rate differences are still too great to sustain any concerted yen rally, though i think japs are now repatriating funds bigtime from wall street to shoreup the Nikkei and their banks portfolios-what are your views on the yen shortterm/longerterm?

everything's bullish, 'cept the monthly statements

yeah but the p/c numbers yesterday wer unbelievable and with a 300 point rally today and still huge bearishness i would give it some more weight.

that really does say something I hoped never to say, 'bear market', shhh, pass it on.

..the bullion bullish?

agreed, good rally, closing options bears, it looks higher for a few days IMO, but the rally action this PM said that, it's what happens when this rally dies that concerns me.

The Bears can smell victory but that BIG OLDE BULL ain't going out without one more BIG HUGE MOTHER OF A RALLY. One that will whip up such MANIA that even Alice and Soup will wish they had bought before they started selling cars online.

you may be right, but we've gotta cross that bridge ( 1200 spoos ) first.

One of these nights, weeks, months or years the Japanese are going to do something EXTREME and really shake up the worlds markets, that could tip the scales..

did you notice that the put to call on spx yesterday was 37? that's thirty-seven not three point seven.
CBOE site reported the following p/c ratios for the 31st. OEX at .97.........OEX leaps at 4.5, DJX at 2.9. SPX leaps at 37, that's thirty- seven.

will a stronger japan mean a weaker USA $. Who would want to invest in a country that cant repay its 7 trillion $ debt and is runnin at a loss every month?

if they borrowed 7 trillion just like the USA did they could kick start their economy

the Nikkei is nowhere near to its eventual bottom imho ... much further down to go

I think the nikkei will make a steep decline to 8-12K and then the GOVT will react and do something and the bottom will be in and the western funds will be buyers all in a few day period

anyone who has bought on this dip may have an opportunity to get out at a profit imho on the retracement rally, but you will have to time your exit with some care ... once the relief rally peaks that opportunity will be gone for several years in my view

bears scream to better cover...before its too dreams...the joy of life

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:20 - ID#185448)
Aura! Man, pleased to meet you.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:21 - ID#26793)
What happens to derivatives if a major Japanese bank fails? No one knows.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:22 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
In the Hampton Roads area ( southeast VA ) we had about 400,000 people out of power. Some for
only a day some still haven't gotten theirs back yet ( it went out Thur night ) . Personally
ours was out for 2 days. It really was shocking to see how little we could survive without
power. Within a day all of our food went bad, and officials in Virginia Beach warned about
using water and flushing because the sewage pump plants had no power. If I was slow before
about doing preparations, I certainly will hurry now. Living without electricity is
something that is going to take alot of preparation. Again thanks for all the work you do
: ) My hardest challenge is convincing my parents, boyfriend, etc that we need to do serious
preparations. My mother just says, oh they'll take care of it. But I'm going to keep
working on them. For their sakes.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:25 - ID#26793)
Japan's banks are so weak that a liquidity crisis is possible.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:38 - ID#26793)
Banking scandal could cost Mexico $65 billion,1051,SAV-9809010119,00.html

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:38 - ID#185448)
You will like that:

EU offers participation in a study re consequences and impacts of y2k on the average pepleo. It is scheduled in a way so that results are not to be expected before Feb 99. Plenty of time from then.

The holy Bible, Issue 1.0, said: "The first will be the first and the last will be the last." But this file was trunctated, I think.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:40 - ID#57232)
The 60's and 70's all over again
Shadowfax: Thanks for letting us know that your sources tell you that the BIS is quietly buying gold again. In reading several books about gold and the BIS, I have never noted them to publicize their moves. We will not know whether they are doing so on the behalf of member CB's, or for themselves. But -- if you think long term enough -- they cannot lose. It is just us mere mortal investor types that want to make money in 12 months or less that are losing. I wonder just how many gold mines the BIS owns by now -- connections with the Rothschilds, no doubt.

My guess is that BIS buying is a sign that gold is going to rally in 12 months or less ( probably less ) simply because member CB's will know this. And -- any upstart CB's selling gold now would be ones that are in countries that are hovering over economic oblivion.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:42 - ID#284255)
No I didn't realise.
Always wondered why I had to wear dresses when I was young ( :- ) ) )

I have only chewed through that one book of his.
When I was a youngster and idealistic.
But I really got hooked on that "will to power" scenario.

And it has served me well throughout my life.

One's self-importance of ones 'ID' carry's one through life.
Well directed and confident this can be a very powerful concept.

The internal strength to rise above all and everything.
Is a profound concept.
And taken by the teeth,
Creates a potent life-force.

This force that many have, will be called upon lots in the near future.

Hopefully to good neighbourly intent.

Email chatter
Even if the powerplants work
and the railroads can ship coal
Can the mines mine the stuff?
They don't have generators big enough.
Those draglines and underground operations need major powerlines
run to them just for their own use.
We are back to a bootstrap problem.
And are the miners going to work for no pay -
because the payroll department can't issue checks?

So we fall back to natural gas and those few plants who've converted.
And hydropower - which in mid-winter is not too swift.
And so is solar power in January - for those who have that hope.

Cold country folks better lay in a 1000 gallon propane tank.
Or a similar one for LP Gas - so they can use it instead of pipeline gas.

We are screwed!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 05:58 - ID#57232)
Economic Oblivion?
Donald: There is talk about a market rally by some of our most valued experts, such as Oldman. He thinks days duration, but very powerful.

Do you have any idea how close Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela are from taking the limelight away from Russia? So far, we have had significant drops in the South American markets, but now real media attention. I wonder how much more of the same will catch the eye of the maerket reporters.

Think nothing will happen till next year? Next month? Next week? The Mexican index ( MEX.X ) has dropped from 110 or so to the 60's and 70's. You'd think there will be some real squawking fairly soon.

Japan is amazing -- now below 15,000. Wasn't the critical threshold around 14,500? I thought most of the Japanese banks would become insolvent about that time -- guess we must wait a few months for the quarterly reports. Japan has always seemed to defy gravity in my opinion, IMHO. But -- after 10 years of this, they must be running out of time.

And -- in a few months, a boatload of sinking American banks will have to report their new -- post Oct 97 losses. Amazing how easy it was with Oct 97. This time it will not be as easy.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:11 - ID#57232)
Derivatives -- stealth nuclear weapons for the markets
All: Potential financial focus on Japan if serious derivatives losses exist. Very good bet -- but won't know until the firms involved are forced to reveal their profits and losses. This cannot go on much longer, IMHO. Now -- there is even talk about 'cross-trade default'. Whatever that is, it sounds like market risk rather than trade risk. Derivatives trade winners and losers would both lose. Problems like this in North Korea could be ignored by the banking/investment community. Not when we are talking about the integrity of the Japanese derivatives markets.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:12 - ID#185448)
Nietzsches real drama was the influence of his mother, not his dress-habits, I referred rather to sentences like "If you deal with a woman, dont forget the whip". But anyway. Nietzsches concepts were eagerly adopted and transferred into Nazi-concepts. A good read from Friedrich N. is "Also sprach Zarathustra" - somewhat like "And so said Zarathustra" ( Sorry - translated out of the hips - but they should know in your local book-store ) .

Your energy-break down reminded me of an incident some years ago, when the main delivery-center for milk and its by-products in the Vienna aerea moved to their new premises. That was the time, when their brand new custom made software turned out to be scrap. Flux and Chaos for over a week, milk supply was rather thin, although the distances here in Austria are so short that other suppliers instantly entered the market.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:17 - ID#255284)
Usually translated as "Thus said Zarathustra"

another book I should read

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:17 - ID#412286)
If 1004 holds get short. If it holds after a retest get real short.
Gold bottom looks like it is in.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:18 - ID#255284)
spanner in the wrks
I mean
"Thus spoke Zarathustra"

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:25 - ID#57232)
I thot so --
aurator: But I didn't want to correct our Kitco wordsmith, who knows his words far better than I. I am still working on that gravity nullifier for AG, but still can't get it off the ground. Oh well -- perhaps it will be ready for the next financial crisis!

Any thoughts about that secretive economy north of you a bit - Japan? Japan must be hovering pretty close to the implosion point. Still find it hard to believe that they have fended off their problems since 1980. Eventually you have to run out of assets to sell, and you must actually do something.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:25 - ID#358318)
Thus shall this be inscribed on their tombstones:-
Emamus, teneremus, decessimus.

( Trinovantum me fecit )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:26 - ID#185448)
Aura , youre the quickest amongst them literates, Brabo!
At least my spelling of Z was somewhat within semantic ranges.

BTW - While reading, listen to the music of the same name by Richard Strauss ( by chance austrian and a relative to Johann father&son, the fabulous waltz kings from the alps ) .

Thus spoke fred@nietzsche

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:29 - ID#57232)
Auch Sprach Zarathustra
Aurator: There is also a great musical piece by that name. Mozart? Elvira Madigan theme? Can't remember. Where is Studio R?

See you later -- must get ready for work!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:33 - ID#57232)
Strauss! Johannes, or?
Fred ( Vienna ) : Should have guessed! Who would no better than someone from Vienna! Just how many Strausses were there? I lost track after the third one. Beats B,B, and B for sheer volume of talent, if not for quality of product.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:36 - ID#57232)
I should read more carefully before posting.
Fred: Was it Richard Strauss that wrote 'Auch Sprach Zarathustra'? I think I was still right about the Elvira Madigan theme -- the soundtrack was the highlight of the Movie.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:36 - ID#335184)
JTF, do you refer to the immortal MAGIC FLUTE of AMADAUS ?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Brazilian reserves are melting; debt squeeze in progress

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:43 - ID#26793)
Japan in "Mushroom Crisis" over North Korean missile; all flights cancelled.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:46 - ID#33184)
Gold and silver coins minted for NAM heads of state
The Chamber of Mines handed over 80 gold and 150 silver commemorative medallions, bearing the picture of President Nelson Mandela on one side and that of a mineworker on the other, as special gifts to heads of states and delegates to the 12th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Durban, yesterday.

The coins, in 22-carat gold and sterling silver, were donated by the members of the Chamber of Mines at the request of the Department of Foreign Affairs and as a special marketing opportunity linking the country's continued pre-eminence as world leader in gold production to the NAM summit.

"Gold remains singularly synonymous with South Africa, and the mining industry, as represented by the Chamber of Mines, is proud to be able to showcase this fact so clearly and boldly in connection with the summit," the Chamber's chief executive Mzolisi 'Zoli' Diliza said at a media conference to announce the hand-over in Johannesburg yesterday.

He pointed out that the donation, at a cost of R250 000, came as a unique marketing opportunity for SA's gold producers to promote their product in a high-profile and yet relatively inexpensive manner - especially at a time when the worldwide gold industry was under the kind of pressure it currently is.

"These gifts symbolise wealth and prosperity, and, as such, blend perfectly with one of the major themes of this NAM summit." He added that gold was a precious asset as well as being a consumable product.

"As such, these gifts also project an image of an industry with an important role to play in South Africa's development and indeed within the rest of the Non-Aligned Movement, from the mining of gold to the fabrication and sale of jewellery. These medallions are also an attempt to promote the use, consumption and role of gold to a wider audience - which is all part of a holistic marketing and business strategy."

The coins, minted from special dies created at the SA Mint in Cape Town and featuring the legend '12th NAM Summit - Durban', will be handed to the 80 heads of state attending the summit, while various other high-ranking delegates will each receive silver coins.

Each coin is housed in a case featuring the NAM logo embossed in either gold or silver.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:46 - ID#185448)
Richard Strauss is correct. Was the opening theme in a Mel Brooks-movie.
Sorry, cant help you with Elvira, wasnt introduced to her yet.
3 Strausses are absolutely sufficient for an average record-collection

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:49 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades Venezuelan currency; outlook to negative.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:51 - ID#57232)
Also Sprach Zarathustra, or Thus Spoke Zoroaster
Fred ( vienna ) , aurator: Richard Strauss' tone poem after Nietzsche, Op. 30, written in 1896, between 'Till Eulenspiegel's Merry Pranks' and 'Don Quixote'. This piece is reported to be a 'confession acknowledging Neitzsche's philosophy'. Apparently a prose-poem heads the score:

Translating: ' Music has dreamt far too long; now we shall awake. Walkers in darkness we were, in light we shall walk henceforth'.

How appropriate. There was alot more to Nietzsche than I thought there was. Perfect musical score for entry into y2k.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:51 - ID#284255)
Fred - rants and raves. FWIW
I believe that Europe is playing a major hand with EU and Y2k.

Rather than focus on remediation they don't care and only wish to get the Euro up and running.

I feel that they wish to be the last player standing.
The ones to pick up the pieces and start again.

It is a dangerous game they play but it will prove to be one of the biggest games ever paid.

The way I see it is that as each domino falls the wealthy swoop in to pick up the pieces.

Now if they know that all hell is going to break loose come Y2k,
Then they want to be left holding the last hand.
To pick up all the pieces.

So what about remediating Y2k, if it's going to take all and everyone down.

What's important, is to, at that moment in time,
Have the strongest currency.
This they are currently forging.

They have backed it with gold to assure it's strength.
To make it greater then the US$.

The US can not currently beat this.

They wish to have the strength of the best hand in this game of poker.
When all falls apart they will be the last hand standing to pick up all the chips.

This is why Y2k ranks second to the Euro.

They know that Y2k will rip the US to shreds
As well as the rest of the globe.
This on top of this financial debacle.

They wish the Euro to be the currency of last resort.
To sweep up the world baubles at rock bottom prices.
When all esle is broken and in tatters.

This game of chess is being played at a grandmaster level.
They do not seek profits for tomorrow.

Rather the foundation of a new empire.
Lasting well into the next bull boom, many years away.

These are just my thoughts as to a game currently underway.
Who knows the truth?
But think for what they play?

Think for what they seek to achieve???

I am stabbing in the dark, looking over the grandmaster's shoulder.
Many would see the same chess board and pieces,
But perceive a different gameplan.

The Game - the Euro - the greatest financial play ever undertaken.

The prize - the worlds baubles at bargain prices.

The contestants - Europe vs USA

The outcome - yet to be seen.

Strength of players.
Europe - old masters with guile and cunning - cold blood
USA - new masters with style and flair - hot blood

What is not known is when the Euro comes out the winner.
( Which I don't doubt. )
Will they be able to hold it all together.
Even when they have all the spoils.

This piece always intrigues me.
It well descibes the game in play.

"The stone cut by no hand" - silicon chip.
And the "The feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron" is Europe.

Daniel. 2, 31-45

You Saw, O king, and behold, a great image.
This image, mighty and of exceeding brightness, stood before you., and its appearance was frightening.
The head of this image was of fine gold, its breast and arms of silver, its belly and thighs of bronze, its legs of iron, its feet partly of iron and partly of clay. As you looked, a stone was cut out by no human hand, and it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces; then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors; and the wind carried them away, so that not a trace of them could be found. But the stone that struck the image became a great mountain and filled the whole earth."
"This was the dream; now we will tell the king its interpretation. You O king, the king of kings, to whom the God of heaven has given the kingdom, the power, and the might, and the glory, and into whose hand he has given, wherever they dwell, the sons of men, the beasts of the field, and the birds of the air, making you rule over them all -- you are the head of gold. After you shall arise another kingdom inferior to you, and yet a third kingdom of bronze, which shall rule over all the earth. And there shall be a forth kingdom, strong as iron, because iron breaks to pieces and shatters all things; and like iron which crushes, it shall break and crush all these. And as you saw the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom; but some of the firmness of iron shall be in it, just as you saw iron mixed with the miry clay. And as the toes of the feet were partly iron and partly clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong and partly brittle. As you saw the iron mixed with miry clay, so they will mix with one another in marriage, but they will not hold together, just as iron does not mix with clay. And in the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom which shall never be destroyed, nor shall its sovereignty be left to another people. It shall break in pieces all these kingdoms and bring them to an end, and it shall stand for ever; just as you saw that a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand, and that it broke in pieces the iron, the bronze, the clay, the silver, and the gold. A great God has made known to the king what shall be hereafter. The dream is certain, and its interpretation sure."

--a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand = silicon chip

--it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces = technology crash

--then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors = modern society dissipating

--the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom = Europe

--mix with one another in marriage , but they will not hold together = ECU failure

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:55 - ID#26793)
London gold news; higher on short covering, Japanese yen

(Wed Sep 02 1998 06:55 - ID#255284)
This is why I like kitco. Moments like this

Music has dreamt far too long; now we shall awake. Walkers in darkness we were, in light we shall walk henceforth.

Thanks to all.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:00 - ID#57232)
Logging of for real -- work waiting
sharefin, Fred ( vienna ) : I have wondered for some time if the Euro is y2k compliant. Even if it is, it will be well after y2k that it is fully implemented. Formula for serious trouble regardless, if all the other markets are not y2k compliant. The Euro reminds me of the Kzinti warriors of Larry Niven fame -- the Kzinti's were lion-like creatures that always attacked the humans before they were ready -- they always lost. Could be the Euro is to have the same fate -- implemented before it is ready. And -- in this case, caution exercised by the members of the EMU will only make things worse -- if just the EURO is y2k compliant.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:02 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: as of Friday Aug 28 lease rates for one month gold
remained ultra low at 0.4%. New lending from Venezuela, and some
European CBs on top of Russia's making available 200-300 tons of its
521 ton total reserve for lending provided the fresh liquidity for
the massive short attack on gold last week that took gold down
to $272. Because of all this new liquidity, there was no increase
in short term lease rates despite the rise in demand for short term
leased gold.

There was a small increase in one year lease rates from 1.38% to 1.45%
as more Australian gold producers sold gold forward to take advantage of
the rise in Australian dollar gold prices to over A$500. This forward
selling facilitated the short attack fostered by ultra low one month
leasing rates.

The world financial crisis is putting pressure on gold prices, rather
than generating fear that stimulates demand for gold. This is the
opposite of expected. As the currencies of gold producing countries
such as Canada, Australia, and South Africa plummet against the USD,
producers in these countries sell forward to lock in high gold prices
in their domestic currencies, while selling onto the world spot price
in USD, depressing the USDPOG. And CBs hungry for any sort of income
from assets are lending more gold than ever, which is sold and depresses
the spot POG. CBs hungry for any sort of income are also a product of
the world financial crisis. We have a negative growth spiral here
in gold selling caused by the world currency meltdown against the USD.
How ironic that the ultimate money, has been a financial disaster for
anyone attempting to take refuge in it.

And now for some good news. The fresh leasing coming out of Europe
is reported to be from CBs who are furiously leasing now because after
jan. 1 1999, the ECB will be placing restrictions on leasing as part
of the strategy for intro of the EURO. let me repeat that in a format
that reflects its importance: THE ECB WILL RESTRICT LEASING BY
MEMBER CBS IN JAN. 1999. This will seriously restrict supply of gold
at a time when it will be in the interest of the EURO to see the POG
rise, so that the 15% gold backing is enhanced in importance. Or to
put it another way, if gold doubles to say $600, that 15% backing becomes
30%, while the USD is backed only by the word of Bill Clinton.
If you were a CB, which currency would you prefer to hold in your
reserves? IMHO, the gold carry ends on Jan 1 1999, or earlier if the
speculators finally grasp what is about to fall on them ( an 8000 tonne
short overhang ) .

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:02 - ID#358318)
Shadowfax__A (We buy, We hold, We retire!) 04:15
Emamus, teneremus, decessimus.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:02 - ID#253418)
What fate for gold when the yen and the stock market fade?
These stock market rally in the US and the commodity up tick may not last very much longer than the S&P after it tests and fails to get through 1003. Everything has gone up together will it decline the same way after the Japaese and AMerican meet in SF and CLinton returns to Washington. ?? Certainly a retest of all the lows will occurr.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:10 - ID#284255)
JTF - Oldman's comments
This piece stands out.

"The market is so sold out that the old highs will be surpassed with ease. If I am right, we'll have a powerful, bone-jarring rally for 2 to 5 days, then the bottom will literally drop out."

Is he looking at SP500 taking out highs ( 1200 ) over the next few days,
Followed by a massive plunge?

The increasing volatility could well spark off such a massive rally.
And then the big "BANG"

Food for thought?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:11 - ID#275194)
jims; Since I bought some physical 1 1/2 weeks ago I've been able to call
Fidelitrade who now operates Wilm. Trusts gold . "I asked if anyone is selling"....."NOPE, there buying", .."Gold I said, "all the metals she said". I think the fact that all of the media has proclaimed that Gold has lost its ability to be a safe haven in times of trouble, means that it hasn't. I would venture to say that those were the lows.IMHO.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:15 - ID#413109)
ANOTHER "Fred" enters the ring

I believe that Europe is playing a major hand with EU and Y2k.
May I humbly suggest a couple of points to this scenario, Nick?
a ) when you speak of they, I presume you refer to Europe.
They are several countries with several leaders, some quite democratic
I hear, so "they" don't have a say as to what will happen regarding picking
up the pieces when they're at rock bottom.
b ) One shouldn't count the USA out until the final count. They may be
down but not out, at a time like you suggest. They have, if I'm not mistaken,
not sold off any gold from their stock. This could easily suggest, at least to me,
that a well timed revalutation of gold could back the almighty $ against all odds, no?
c ) There will be many other more urgent problems to deal with, if your and my reading
of the y2k info, you've so kindly posted, like health, riots, control of anarchy etc. etc.
d ) then there is always mother Russia, to be concerned about. Give them a little credit, no
cash, mind you, for being in the picture in a major way, no matter what the future holds in store.
e ) This goes for Japan and China as well. Those people are not fools, even though they've had their
share of problems.
f ) then there'll always be the unkowns and surprises.
"We shall truly live in ineresting times"!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:16 - ID#284255)
It matters little that the Euro is Y2k compliant.
If all are in the same boat.

Paramount is the last hand holding and the strength of the hand.

I feel this is what they are seeking.

And backed by pure gold?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:18 - ID#45173)
Wisened, sharefin, Hugo
Wisened - The PPT protects whom? As with the BOJ and HK, the idea is not to stop the market from imploding but to hold the door open until the big boys get out. Meanwhile, the individual investor is told to hang in there, don't panic. From the big boys to the little boys, "WE sell, YOU panic."

sharefin - Might we today begin to see the bear reverse of "buy on the dips," that is, "sell on the blips"?

Hugo - No one beats the averages in a bull market. It takes real skill to make money in a bear market.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:18 - ID#289357)
From The RESOURCE INDICATOR newsletter Sept 1

August 1, 1998 ( initiation date ) to August 31, 1998

Resource Indicator Index -5%

TSE 300 -20%

VSE Index -21%

VSE Mining Index -22%

DJIA ( Dow ) -14%




An important psychological change has been taking place for investors

in the senior U.S. markets over the last few trading sessions. The last

hour of trading in New York yesterday was a view to a kill. In the last

hour ( after several rally attempts ) accompanied by large volumes,

stocks ended at their daily lows. To this point, the senior markets have

been driven by demand from investors, from across the world, afraid of

missing out on a comfortable retirement. It will now be driven by fear

of uncertainty and the need for liquidity caused by a lack of confidence.

Many analysts have been pointing out that Russia only constitutes 1%

of the world GDP and only represents approximately 1% or exports

from the US and Europe. This, in my view, understates the problem.

The issue with both Russia and Asia has to do with capital. Deutsche

Bank was downgraded on August 26, 1998 from AAA to AA+ due to

capital losses in Russia and other markets. The Russian economic

crisis has also led to major losses among many hedge fund managers

and banks. Late yesterday afternoon, Solomon Smith Barney reported

Russian losses. It is this news that prompted the dumping during the last

hour of trading in New York. With the Solomon announcement, the

effect from Asia and Russia is now real to many and will be felt by

many more in the near future. The bulk of Russias trade is with

Eastern Europe. This now has a potential for a domino effect as capital

risk spreads outwards.

Many banks, private investors and hedge funds have been investing in

these politically and economically unstable markets because they

believe that any trouble can be controlled through bailouts by the IMF.

This impression has driven greed to feast where simple accounting

would alert one to avoid ( it does not take much to realize that high

interest rates are a result for higher risk ) . In essence, IMF bailouts have

only helped foreign speculators, doing nothing for the local businesses

and labour. This time, the IMF will not be able to save a corrupt Russia

and its greedy foreign investors.

As Martin Armstrong recently pointed out What appears to be

happening in Russia is a struggle for power between factions and

groups. The devaluation benefits those who have natural resources,

Berezovsky and Chernomyrdin, for they have reduced their cost of

production and increased their profits because sales of commodities are

in dollars. These funds are now being used to gain control of the

government at all costs. This is one reason why commodity exports

from Russia may now begin to increase further driving the prices lower

and propelling global asset deflation. The devaluation of the Russian

ruble gives a few select individuals access to power in Russia through

the sale of natural resources in US dollars. The fight to control Russia

has now begun. Whoever can raise the capital to feed the army will win

control. The US elite understands this and is the only reason you see

Clinton visiting Russia.

The Russian economy has deteriorated to the point where its political

stability is no longer certain. The peace dividend, which has had a

positive effect on the world markets, especially the United States, in no

longer certain. Russia is unstable, civil war is raging in several African

countries, Indonesia is in turmoil, the North Koreans are testing ballistic

missiles over Japan, India and Pakistan are flexing their muscles to each

other and Clinton is playing Wag the Dog with terrorist groups. Capital

does not like uncertainty.


I know many have been waiting for the senior markets to collapse in

hopes that this will some buying back to the junior exploration market.

My views on this have always differed as I believe that we need the

senior market to continue its exuberant behaviour for any hope of a near

term recovery in the juniors. Where is the money to finance the juniors

going to come from if the senior markets collapse? Gold and Silver

have not rallied even as confidence around the world falls. Many will

argue this point and say that Gold has risen in many currencies and thus

performed as it should. This argument is weak. A bull market can only

exist in a product if it is rising against ALL currencies. When gold

moves up against a higher US dollar, only than will we have clear

indication of demand for gold. Keep in mind that local investors whose

currencies have collapsed have done better holding US dollars than

holding gold. Trouble looks for liquidity and gold is not liquid enough

to be a currency. It should be considered a commodity at this moment

and is trading like a commodity. ALL commodities collapsed during the

Great Depression bottoming in 1932 along with stocks ( even though the

gold standard existed throughout the entire period ) .

The Russian power struggle creates the real possibility of lower

commodity prices. Also, the failure of IMF to save Russia will make it

hard for the IMF itself to raise funds in the future. 70% of IMFs liquid

assets are in gold. The IMF itself may become desperate and be forced

to sell its gold to raise cash. With this in mind, we could see gold

collapse to the US$200/oz range and silver in the US$3/oz range in the

near future.

As economies collapse around the world, capital is fleeing to the US

dollar. As I have said, liquidity in the form of cash is a priority and the

US dollar is the king of all currencies, not gold. Also, the US economy

is healthy, secure and well managed. The US dollar will be viewed as a

safe haven for many and for now will remain very strong. This should

not however, be viewed as support for the US senior markets. The

world economy is in trouble and no one seams to have a plan to restore

the confidence. Unwinding of leverage can result in numerous margin

calls that can bring the senior market down quickly. This could result

in a very sharp one day decline in the near future. This could bring the

DJIA to the 6500 mark. The quicker the better.


My strategy and advice remains unchanged. Concentrate on discovery

driven stocks and use any liquidity to take profits. A disciplined

approach is necessary to reduce losses and protect profits. My

MUSICAL CHAIRS - advice form February stands. Rationalize your

portfolios now. Dont compete for tax losses at the end of the year.

We are soon approaching a period of great values. Any cash raised now

can be used to buy these bargains in the November/December period.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:19 - ID#153110)
@rhody @sharefin
Every unit decrease in POG translates into fewer total $ needed to corner the market. This is exactly the reverse of the situation immediately following Nixon's closing of the gold window and the initiation of the dollar as good as gold standard.

@sharefin Where is Sand Mountain ? Build your House upon the Rock. Also Sprach Mozel.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:25 - ID#284255)
Yes - you see the game with all the pawns in the same positions as I.

But we have different views of the plays.

Chess truly has many myriad plays going forwards.

We will have to wait till the kings are threatened - yes?

At the moment looking from this fence I have to agree with your comments.

But be it that the chaos of Y2k strikes hard.
Then the middle game will change muchly.

Very interesting times...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:28 - ID#335184)
rhody, a brilliant summation/tour de forse explanation of the most crucial factors
depressing the POG. But, is it true that the BIS has given the "Twilight Bark" & is now acquiring GOLD ?
Mr. Spock, Assume that intelligence case officer rhody's observations of this strange new world are correct & plot course solution !
rhody, what is your best proposition to take advantage of this KlingOnton opening ? May AU Futures/ Options ?

Scotty, all ahead 1/3 & don't spare the dilythinm crystals.
Ohura, set fasers to kill & attach tractor beam to 99 may AU contracts & reverse thrusters to Warp 7 !
Bones, take Elvis on scouting party, beam down & bring back grey matter samples of any signs of intelligent life you may come across.
General Quarters & remember the prime directive,...
"Gird thy Principal about thy loins & keep your kilt/loin cloth flap shut & lined with 100% pure grizzley fur ! !"



(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:33 - ID#386245)
Feeling golden bottoms.
I have been feeling bottoms for a few months now and have been slapped and rejected every time. This week I felt a bottom particularly hard and found it to be congruously both firm and bouncy. I stood back and waited for the inevitable reaction, and to my surprise today got a cuddle and a big kiss, with the promise of more to come. As I am aiming for higher ground, I held firmly in anticipation. The fear of rejection is always in the back of my mind and I am ready to abscond at short notice. cheers, N.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:35 - ID#432148)
With gold at the moment up US2.10 and silver up 6.5 cents can we hope the worm has turned and our insurance is about to kick in? It has been a long dry spell but the conditions for a turnaround sure seem to be present in my book. After reading this weeks Barrons with the technicians very bearish and even the fundamentalists nervous ( all except dear Abbey of course ;- )
and others trying to calm the waters I have to belive we are in a Big Bear. All IMHO of course and with my record based on my buying gold the past fews years, hardly advise of any kind.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:38 - ID#242325)

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:38 - ID#411440)
THOUGHTS: Last spring, W. Duisenburg let slip during a conference
in South America, that gold backing of the EURO was to be 27.5%.
That later was fixed as a "consensus" at 15%. What if the 27.5%
figure was the ultimate goal of gold backing in 1999? At the
time of the conference, gold was about $300. For 15% to become
27.5% backing, gold would have to rise 1.83 times 300 or to
$550 in 1999.

The POG is a manipulation by leasing. European CBs can lease it down
to $300 and keep it there ( the present price is overkill induced by
the Russian and other debacles ) . After 1999, they may want gold up
to $550. They can accomplish this by simply restricting lease sales
by raising rates, and terminating the gold carry. Just a thought.

If the above is true and the speculators finally catch on, the present
negaitve growth spiral could unwind in a big way but in the opposite
direction, and they won't wait until 1999 to cover. This is what has
kept me from unwinding my own long positions in gold stocks. The
situation is truly explosive.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:43 - ID#284255)
Sand Mountain???

Is that not the name of the Island that Bill Gates just bought with his MSFT winnings?

The stone became a mountain that filled the earth.

Sounds like MSFT?

Till it shattered and broke....

You got to be quick, to buy the rallies these days.
The easier money is to sell.

How quick will the day traders learn?

How many of them waiting for this sell of a lifetime?
Salivating and preening in the knowledge of what is about to happen.

How many, who are short, do not want to be long?

This beast has to make these guys grovel for one last time.
Oldman's call for a massive rise before a humungous tank fits the bill.

Squeeze them to death.

Reminds me of when we caught marlin and bought them up alongside the boat.
Ready for the deathclub.

These beautiful fish would sense their closeness to death and make one last rush to safety.
Their last run was always so memoriable.

So gallant and powerful and strong.
Their last gasp of virility as they raced across the ocean.

After that, they were done for.
They had just given in.
Their spirit broken.

Their last battle lost.

This is what I see coming.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:47 - ID#37463)
In observing the wide euphoria throughout the world this morning in the paper markets it appears that Titanic II may be filling up nicely with bubbling passengers. The band plays on. Card games abound. The frills are being flaunted. But who is at the helm?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:51 - ID#37463)
Old Gold
I would love to become optimistic about our gold lover with this $5.00 rally with promises of more but this old girl has gone whoring after other paramours before. Let's wait before we give her a ring and set the date.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:53 - ID#255226)
Trading SnP
The Sept S&P is up aganist hourly trend line resistance at 1001-1002 area. If your shorting the mkt here use a 1005 stop. If the mkt drops move the stop to breakeven. Reverse and go long between 930-900. The drop into that area, if it happens, will be fast lasting only a few minutes. Orders should be placed in advance. I'm going to the ball game. Good Luck!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 07:58 - ID#410198)
PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM......makes the headlines in British on paper...scroll down this URL

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:04 - ID#153110)
A market corner in my way of thinking is the position of controlling price.
USG via IMF immobilized gold by the rule that prohibits gold's use in IMF interbank transactions. This then permitted gold sales to control POG. Until it became obvious the market would buy all the banks would sell. The policy to control POG then introduced gold leasing followed by the trading of forward sale contracts on a par with physical contracts.
China's devaluation comenced the ongoing war of competitive currency devaluation and currency attack. The pressure to defend currencies has in effect mobilized gold by collateralizing it. Now all those gold leases and forward sales are in play as currency and subject to currency conversion. The only currency which is a candidate for conversion of a gold lease is the Euro because gold is a reserve in it.

USG will be compelled to restore gold to a reserve status if Euro launches. Thereafter, the basis of currency competition will not be devaluation, but percentage of gold reserve.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:06 - ID#350194)
Talking with a few locals in Toronto yesterday and the general public has NO IDEA. They wonder why the market went down ( Just because of Russia? ) and then wonder how long it will be until it goes up again. In otherwords, I believe that, so far the majority, ( who as we know have been totally preconditioned - read brainwashed ) , are standing pat, in other words, no full-fledged panic yet. Here in Canada we are in a very similar position to the U.S. in that everyone and their brother puts most of their yearly savings into mutual fund RRSP's ( Registered Retirement Savings Plans ) . Each year people take as much of their income as they can save and put it into these funds where it is sheltered from income tax until retirement. Looks like everyone's retirement is not going to be as rosey as they once assumed.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:07 - ID#411440)
@ newtron: I never make recommendations for investment purposes.
Free advice is worth what you pay for it. I have no qualms about
providing information that would allow others to make logical
decisions. Personally I have bought gold shares and coin. Gold
is volotile enough without getting into derivatives! IMHO

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:07 - ID#228128)
The beautiful confines of Wrigley Field I presume. I'm thinking the same thing. North of 1005 and its probably an up day. Otherwise it exceed yesterdays lows.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:10 - ID#255226)
You're Right

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:13 - ID#210163)
leasing and the fools who play it?
The whole idea of leasing by central banks to speculators and hedge funds is that the person who borrows the gold and sells it will be able to invest it profitably at some rate. That area is now in question. Hedge funds are getting margin calls so who is going to loan to them. If you borrowed money and invested in stocks or bonds in 80% of the world you are under water right now. The problem with gold leasing now is finding somebody solvent enough and able to invest and make more than they lose. Think about it

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:14 - ID#284255)
Will the PPT be responsible for their actions?

How many MUMs and DADs are buying innocently?

Under the shadow of safety that the PPT create.

They will be all fleeced.

And by whom???

The PPT...............

They should all be hollering loud and clear.

This is atrocious...

And unaccoutable....

And allowed...........................................

just added the 'Worldnet news' to my page.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:14 - ID#350194)
@Mozel @8:04
Please, Mozel, please write to the Finance Minister of Canada and the Prime Minister of Canada and explain to them in detail your ideas. You will be doing 30 million peoples a great service. ( Afterwards you might help out that friendly country 'downunder by sending them a note also. )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:15 - ID#243166)
Could OLD GOLD be 100% correct?
On June 25 OLD GOLD predicted: XAU 50-55 in July...Done; Dow 9500 in the summer...close enough; Dow 7000-7500 by fall...close enough; and XAU pushing 100 by year end. Three down, one to go. I ask everyone ---what are the chances he can reach prophetic status?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:15 - ID#242325)
Worst over?
The theme in the press today seems to be THE WORST IS OVER. Here is another view from Dr. Doom

Dr. Doom - Exclusive to Mr. Cyriuss

September 1st, 1998
Cyriuss Investor Homepage


In terms of percentage declines, the 512.61 points Mr. Dow Jones gave up on Monday only managed to secure a 25th place
finish in the history of market crashes. The 508-point drop of October 19th, 1987 still rates #1 with a 22.61% drop compared
to the measly 6.37% the Dow lost Monday.

Those half-wits comparing 1998 with 1929 fail to account for the percentage drops the Dow Jones suffered on October 28th
and 29th of that infamous year: respectively 12.82% and 11.73%. Indeed, four of the worst 20 percentage-decline trading
days occurred within a 15-day period: November 6th, 1929 and November 11th, 1929 brought percentage losses of 9.92%
and 6.82%, respectively.

A great deal was made, Monday evening, about August being the worst trading month in the history of the U.S. financial
markets. Poppycock! Percentage-wise, more ground was lost on October 28th and 29th ( 1929 ) than during the entire month
of August 1998 by a full 23.36%! More ground was lost in one day, October 19th, 1987 than in August 1998, in percentage
terms, by 13.6%.

A CNN Interactive Quick Vote, currently being conducted, asked: "After Monday's 500-point drop in the Dow, are you ready
to bail out of your investments?" The breakdown of more than 36,000 voters was as follows:

13% - I'm already out
5% - I'm selling now
7% - I'll wait a bit more
74% - I'm hanging on

Are you not comforted that more than 27,000 of those investors are still hanging on? That's an overwhelming percentage and
we believe it fairly gauges the sentiment across the American landscape. This impromptu poll also measures the level of
complacency found in the typical US investor. Perhaps you are one of those.

The problem is not that Americans have lost faith in their economy. Most haven't. The fault lies with the overseas investors
who now believe that an embattled US President might have had something to do in creating a new era of US prosperity.
Moreso, this tragedy evolves as they continue believing that an impeachment, or resignation, of the Arkansas Adulterer would
wreck the now stable US economy. In actuality, the Republican-led Congress, a strong Federal Reserve board and a
soon-to-be-legendary US Treasury Secretary were more apt to draw kudos for this unprecedented affluence. But, we'll get to
those nasty foreigners shortly.

It was the strong US dollar, championed by Richard Rubin, which attracted flight capital from Asia, Europe and Latin
America. That prompted the buying spree between February and April 1998. Low interest rates brought lower mortgage
rates, which led to a refinancing boom. The new Roth IRA brought in unprecedented billions into the Dow Jones and
NASDAQ, and excitement begat greater enthusiasm for the fast buck to be made in the irrationally exuberant financial

As we noted in earlier issues of DR. DOOM, it was Japan's decisive weak-yen policy that wrecked the Asian economies.
After the hidden collapse of, and the rampant insolvency that swept through, the rest of the Pacific Rim, the contagion spread
to its most vulnerable contact points: Russia, Hong Kong and Latin America. Unnecessary victims were those resource-heavy
nations, Australia and Canada, that suffered as global commodity prices kept discovering a new floor each week.

Urgencies by US banks to increase bottom-line profits, by taking shortcuts, such as through derivatives trading, led to
tumultuous speculation in Asian and European currencies. You might say Citicorp, BankAmerica and others helped speed up
the collapse of Asia, as they bankrolled major currency speculators. These powerful and wealthy syndicates placed bets:
"Let's see how fast we can bring down the British Pound or cause the HK dollar to unpeg from the US dollar." The very rich
got richer, at the expense of a few billion indigents.

When a nation, such as Japan spends $20 billion in two or three days to defend its yen against hedge fund operators, you get
the idea of how vast are the resources behind such players. Hong Kong spent US $12.5 billion, last week, to prop up its
Hang Seng Index and defend its currency from speculators. After that failed, they resorted to trading curbs. Malaysia joined
the club on Tuesday by closing its foreign exchange window, but not before suffering a 40% loss in its ringgit.

What your stockbrokers and financial advisors failed to tell you when you bought or Yahoo is that you walked
into World War 3. This war isn't being fought with bullets or nuclear weapons. Instead, a country's currencies are used to
destroy an enemy. A safe haven is no longer gold, but a US Treasury Certificate. China's threat of devaluation prompted the
US Federal Reserve to assist Japan in stemming the depreciation of its yen. While not quite on par with Hitler's invasion of
Austria, in terms of ripple effect, their demands created a greater global impact.

Just as gold, throughout Western Civilization, financed wars, carving out new countries while destroying others, it is now
the US dollar that bears this responsibility. We are at a crossroads where Europeans, Asians and others must sell their US
equity positions in order to indirectly help defend their currencies. Pity the poorer Canadian, whose currency has sunk by
nearly one-half its value since Richard Nixon was in office. The Canadian dollar lost about 10% of its value over the past

During the first half of 1998, it made very good sense for Canadians, Brits, Germans and others to invest in the US of A.
They were getting a double-bonus. While their currencies were going to hell in a handbasket, their investments in the US
financial markets were paying out eye-popping returns. But, the tide turned, again forced upon their political leaders by
currency speculators, to bring back those francs, yen, marks and loonies home.

One could see Monday's crash in the making on Thursday and Friday, following dramatic rises in the Swiss Franc, British
Pound and Deutsche Mark, and to a lesser degree the Australian dollar, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar. Now, that the
Japanese Yen is at a 6-week high against the US dollar, there may be more Wall Street massacres, such as the one on August

Overwhelming flows into the US bond market has driven yields to unforeseen lows. What would logically follow is a
reduction in US interest rates. What happens to the US dollar when it pays out less and less interest to those who hold
dollars? US holdings are quickly converted back into Yen, Pound Sterling and other currencies, at the expense of the US
equities market.

A collapse in the making, you say? That sums it up about right.

The billion-dollar margin calls on Wall Street, raining down upon those poor hedge fund operators who had sunk far too
much dough into Russia? That's hardly a dent compared to what is coming down the pike. Imagine what how much panic
might ensue should there be a repeat of those heady days of late October 1929. Percentage-wise, we might find ourselves
looking at back-to-back days of 900-point drops in the Dow Jones.

In terms of the calendar, 14 of the worst 25 percentage declines occurred between September 24th and December 18th. Nine
of the 25 fell during October.

That CNN Interactive Quick Vote might not then show the resolute complacency we now witness over the recent deterioration
in the US financial markets. But then again, someone's got to be left holding the bad. Just make sure you aren't the one.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:15 - ID#147201)
EJ- your 8/1 23:28
I think the bad breath is wide spread and the can of gas is coming, but a possible scenario ocurred to me watching media about 2 wounded leaders. If Clinton gave Yeltsin a big enough stick, he may be able to turn the Duma his way. This could be positive for the markets, but if Clinton;s stick breaks, all hell will be worse than bad breath. We should know something by Fri. If this is correct, Dow down till Fri and then up if the stick wins. If not, I hate to see what happens.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:24 - ID#153110)
@Mooney @sharefin
I wish they would write to me and explain what they know about the Gold Wars. They know the stakes.

@sharefin Now, it is Sand Mountain Island ? Peace to thee.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:25 - ID#30126)
Gollum, kapex
One person that I spoke to last week told me that they ( a married couple ) were putting ONE THIRD of their total income in to their 401K so that they, "Could have something to retire on." Imagine the anger and .... if 'something' happens to that money due to a market debacle. IMO, this is why you are seeing all of this crap about gun control laws and assault weapons etc. It will not be a happy world when the CHILDREN wake up and find that they have been lied to. It will get even worse when they, the CHILDREN ( read sheeple ) , realize what fools they've been to believe in this liberal crap and investment crap. Once they find out who and what the people are like who are running these companies that they have their money invested in.... Oh boy.... Duck'n cover. Duck'n cover......

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:31 - ID#242325)
Gold still up two bucks despite strong rise in dollar index. So far, so good. Who can doubt it will go to $325 by late Novemebr if these gains hold today. Hepcat is never wrong. Right?

Important for all to remeber that just as gold lead all other commodites into the toilet ( to use EB's favorite expression ) it probably will lead the way back up again..

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:31 - ID#350194)
@Silverbaron's 7:18
Silverbaron's 7:18 should be bookmarked by ALL and read once daily to keep an even keel on what are otherwise overenthusiastic emotions concerning two or three dollar rises after $15 dollar drops in the POG.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:32 - ID#280214)
Sharefin: thanks for the grizzly heads-up in your 04:11
But we have a profitable out.
We who have some physical and are seeing its price continue to sink and who are wary of it sinking further should take the opportunity of selling it - at a profit - not to the regular markets where we would take a loss, but to the masses who will pay a "few dollars more" for a tiny investment in Gold. Melt those bars and bullion coins down into pieces small enough to sell. Sure we can find people who will buy a dozen 1-ounce coins, but those folks will buy it from the major sellers. Small purchasers can't buy just one or two 1/10 oz coins unless they are lucky to be near enough to to dealer to drive over and personally get them. Many of us find such tiny deals prohibitive for usual mail orders. What is needed is lots of sources for a few 1/48th ounce coins which wouldn't cost more than say US$50 for several of them. Just slip 'em in a slitted index card and drop 'em in an envelope. No $10 shipping and insurance. We can sell our 1-ounce coins for $480 each - and make at least a $100 profit even after costs of melting and re-minting into 10-grain coins.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:36 - ID#45173)
Hey? Where's the Captain?
I'm all suited up, barf bag strapped on my face, ready to go, but the plane isn't even at the gate, it's sitting over there by the hanger. What's with that? I paid good money to fly on that thing. There it sits, with puddles of fluid on the tarmac under the wings, and, come to think of it, one of the ailerons and an elevator flapping in the wind like they're not linked to the hydro anymore. And it's got a couple of flat tires. And the windshield is busted.

Whatever. C'mon Captain! Let's boogie!


(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:42 - ID#35571)
Everything looks good, Globex sorta up, bonds down, metals up. good rise in the market yesterday....but I can't get any of our pilots to agree to fly today. What is this, a strike?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:46 - ID#280214)
Old Soldier, your advice in your 01:15 is vital to our survival
We should take your suggestions to heart and cross-train into useful skills. A lot of our paper and electron pushing skills won't count for anything when we need blacksmiths, carpenters, and teachers. We should pick one or two skills from your list or find similarly needed ones and get cracking. Thus we will have more to offer our neighbors and community in return for food, shelter and needed services than just a little pile of hoarded food, ammo or gold - all of which will eventually be used up.

Those of us who are older than the average yuppie also have another asset - wisdom and having been taught the basics back in the forties and fifties. We could teach these - after the kids and their yuppie parents get enough of a reality check to realize that reading, writing and math are a helluva lot more useful than the pap schools are feeding them now.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:46 - ID#373403)
Yes I carved the original wax design. I have to send it out to be cast in platinum because my casting equipment cannot withstand that much heat. I then cleaned up the casting and fabricated the 24K gold bead in the center and soldered it in place.

The design is a variation of one I came up with to showcase South Sea black pearls. They can be seen at:

Thanks for the compliment.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:46 - ID#254269)
Urgent Memo to Captain Gollum
The US DOT ( Department of Triviality ) now requires airlines to provide "Peanut free seating".

Is Gollum Airways peanut compliant ?

DOT inspectors will be at the gate this morning, counting bags of peanuts.

They feel so strongly about this, that it is featured on the front page
of today's WSJ.

Avalon swears that he has not been drinking and is not making this up.
This is real serious stuff.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:53 - ID#212197)
NYSE yesterday: 907 new Lows, 17 new Highs (last 52 weeks)
I just checked it and almost couldn't believe it.
When the NYSE shows more than 40 new lows, as a rule of thumb, that indicates danger.

This stock market behaves like a deadly wounded animal, not just fidgetting, but kicking around like mad. Such a strong bull doesn't die without violent volatility.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:53 - ID#284255)
Squirrel - 1/10oz coin?
Yes, I can see the need for a small convertable coin coming.
If Y2k was to turn nasty, it would be well taken up and used.

A convenient way to barter services between people.
Like a 5 cent coin, but with real value - gold value.

But what of the legalities of establishing a coin like this?
Would you establish it as a coin?
A collectable?
A commemorative - year2000
Or numismatic?

I know little of coins and query the legalities of establishing one.
Wouldn't the US Gov't jump on you like a ton of bricks?

Or would this fall under the case of free enterprise?

Reguardless I believe their would be a real market for a coin like this.
As we enter these troubled times.

I might even buy a few myself.

Got a spare roll????

John B__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:53 - ID#77133)
Old Gold
By Dr. Doom, do you mean Henry Kaufman? Thanks,

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:56 - ID#342376)
Greal Music analogies!
BTW, Elvira Madigan music is Mozart's 21st Piano Concerto, second movement. Oh, and while I'm at it, Go Gold. Pretty please? With sugar and cream on top?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:58 - ID#35571)
Important announcement!!!
Gollum airlines has cancelled ALL flights. I repeat, Gollum airlines has cancelled all flights.
Tickets will be refunded.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:58 - ID#350194)
Rhody - Call me on the land-line please.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 08:59 - ID#119358)
@Old Man Hunt (on gold, er everything).........
"If ya' like a little of it, you'll love a lot of it."

and to quote ol' studio ( whilest canadian fishin' with pals ) ....."All we're missin' here is two good for me, and one for all my buddies."

yessir, g'dayO...n' off to pump earl to give it away.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:03 - ID#286230)
Dead Cats Bouncing?
Markets are up in most of Asia and Europe. Even Japan back over 14000. Now is the interesting period. Will it get back to 8000 or more before it drops or will it carry on for a while? Don't know but I'm glad Squirrel isn't usually an optimist : ) .

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:04 - ID#350194)
Silver Boom 1998/99
Top of this screen Silver up $1.46. As we know, this is a correction of the misprint of yesterday - but it does look encouraging - Yes?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:05 - ID#45173)
Let's see. Down 512 Friday, opens up 140 Monday, drops over 200, then closes up 288, after dropping off at the end on the gnarly news about the Russia default impact on US banks. That's screwy behavior for an index most investors are expecting to see act like a hyper compounding bank account. Now that other banks, say, in Latin America, have "permission" to default, perhaps there's some serious exposure? Been pretty quiet in Japan the past few days. Hmmm hmm hmm hmm. Hmmm hm hmm hmm. Throwing out any new bad news into such volatile air might portend a truly tough mission for your boys, Captain.

Maybe your boys are... just plain scared?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:08 - ID#350194)
@Selby and ALL
Selby - This market reminds me ever so much of 1987 when there were also pre-quake tremors in the August period leading up to the big quake in October.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:10 - ID#254269)
"Malaysia Imposes Sweeping Currency Controls" is title of WSJ article
on Page A10.

( Sorry if it has been posted earlier. )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:10 - ID#45173)
Captain Gollum
Equipment problem ( wink wink ) right? Ok.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:14 - ID#147201)
Sharefin re your 8:53 Small coin
This is a great idea!! From what I know of the US Code, there are no legal restrictions. The idea is for a functional coin, denominated in weight and purity only. It could well be a 2000 commemorative , but its function would be to buy everyday things when all alternatives are relatively worthless. The reason for the size is that larger coins would have to be cut, filed and weighed. With such a small coin, they could be added up as needed At this point I can see no gov't problems. It should fall under Free Enterprise. I have often thought about this and have a good file on it. If you have any questions, please reply. Charlie

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:20 - ID#286230)
Mooney: I think a lot of people hope it is like 1987 and only lasts a short period before the bull runs again and for years. I haven't met anyone who believes that though. I am surprised at the lack of movement in gold and silver. I assume cash looks better at the moment--tins of tuna may look better. By the way Loblaws has a special on tuna all week.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:21 - ID#280214)
Sharefin - screw the USG, if we wait for them to help us...
You forgot one category on your list.
A commodity.
Keep the coin pure and at a good price.
And sell tonnes of 'em - 10-grains at a time to every Tom, Dick, Harry and Jan, Kim, and Carrie - Asians and Europeans - anybody who can afford to put away 10 or 20 grains of Gold per week for the next 16 months before Y2K.
Since we have no currency denominations we are selling merely little round disks of Gold with a fancy design and cute motto.
If folks use these coins in private trade among themselves for a side of beef, a gallon of milk, a dozen eggs or repairs to the roof - so be it.
After Y2K those essentials will be traded for something and a coin worth about 2 gallons of milk, 2 dozen eggs and a sack of flour will be just about right.
I'll have a spare roll as soon as the mint turns out the first few thousand coins. Hot of the press as it were.

P.S. Where do we obtain .99995 Gold to mint these with?
Do we leave that up to the mint?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:22 - ID#333126)
Gollum airlines flights cancelled?

awww............ now how am I supposed to take the fun roller-coaster ride that I thought I paid for?

do I have to settle for Disneyland now?

;- )

John B__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:23 - ID#77133)
Donald or Carl
Have not noticed analysis of the XAU/POG ratio lately. Appears to be in the 17 range. Hasn't this been a favorable ratio for gold equities in the past? Thanks,

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:24 - ID#119358)
@referencing earlier dizzkushun.......
I don't know nuttin' 'bout mozart or strudel, sorrry. GOllum&JTF.O......Yes, I stand firm in my thinking that there are only two dimensions...this zone and the twilight zone. there you have it. bbalittlel.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:27 - ID#25171)
Nice post on GOLD lease rates . I would like to add a few points.
First , let's not be mistaken about the so called EURO GOLD backing. In fact , we have to be aware that this GOLD backing is related to FOREX reserves and NOT to the monetary supply which makes a big difference.
Still , it is better than nothing.
Now , what is the immediate future for the POG?
With 1000 T of GOLD in speculative short term positions and another 7 to 8500 short in long term spec and mine hedge the situation is really explosive as any restriction on GOLD leasing by the ECB will be of catastrophic proportion for the short sellers.
The 11 th good crop in INDIA in a row was blessed by another good mooson . The wedding season is coming soon and INDIAN farmers will also buy gold biscuits to cover any potential reversal in the future.
Jewelers will start accumulating in the western world for the christmas season as well.
The bear trap is set.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:27 - ID#333126)
more news on Malaysia's economic controls
the statement in a major Malaysian newspaper:

the interview with Dr. Mahatdir, PM:

$500 and $1000 Malaysian notes to be demonetised

what the rules mean ( i.e. what crap this whole idea is ) :

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:30 - ID#333126)
malaysian market woes

good summary of new exchange rules:

hot damn! Malaysian deputy PM resigns! Joins central bankers who resigned last week!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:34 - ID#402148)
What is Oldman's current view for the next 3 months? Thanks.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:35 - ID#213265)
@the scene
And the stern of the DOWtanic continues its rise off the water...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:41 - ID#284255)
Nomura unveils US$350m loss on Russian bonds

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:48 - ID#57232)
WJC's pastor wants him to repent
All: More from World Net Daily.

I think the church-going group must represent a sizeable portion of the vote. I wonder -- would the Pope even want to visit with the President? Would be interesting to see how the Pope would react if asked.

All: I think that even WJC is worried about his future. The reason I say this is that WJC just had the opportunity of a lifetime in Russia. He supposedly has always admired FDR's ability to rally people to a cause, as well as FDR's 'big brother-like' approach to government. Well, WJC just blew it, given that Russia is in a crisis rivaling the Russian revolution when they overthrew the Czar. Their crisis is certainly equal to the one that the American people faced with FDR. Probably worse, because we still had a fairly intact infrastructure. I don't know what is intact in Russia. Certainly not their financial system, or their tax collection.

WJC should have given an inspiring 'fireside chat' -FDR -like speech to the younger Russian generation, such as the College students. He should have said something to the effect that Russia is at a critical crossroads, there is much hard work ahead, but if they work hard and diligently on rebuilding their economy there still is hope for the future. It could have been the pep-talk of a lifetime, to go down in history with JFK's Berlin speech or ML King's 'I have a dream' speech.

He is capable of such feats, but why am I not surprised he failed to rise to this kind of occasion? Any who still believe that WJC will go down in history as a great president are sadly mistaken.

So -- what does this mean for the markets? I think the inescapable conclusion is that we will be in a long term bear market for some time, given WJC's fading fortunes. I am still waiting for the WJC counterattack on K Starr, et al. I don't think it will help the markets one bit, even if WJC somehow avoids impeachment by besmirching his attackers. This time, whatever WJC does the mud will fly back on him, and stick.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:49 - ID#222231)
ALL-Repost with additions
I really did'nt take the time to post the following with more salient points:

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 23:53
Pete ( ALL-Dead cat bounce? ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even as bad as the drop has been the past week I think we have one more
leg up, possibly to 10,000 before the final implosion. I will try to
enumerate as follows:

( 1 ) Many have profits that would be subject to capital gains taxes of 20%
or more. The herd will not sell until their losses are substantially greater
than 20%. ( Below Dow 7000 )

( 2 ) The herd mentality will be to reenter the market at 7000+ as a buying
opportunity one last time because they have the mistaken belief that the
equity market is still viable.

( 3 ) The FRB will lower rates very soon because if they don't, they will
fear the consequences.this will give one more final breath of life to the

( 4 ) Finally the pundits and media will be convincing the herd not to
panic, a fact that is apparent from surveys of the ignorant investors. This
will give the imputus to # ( 2 ) .

All of the above should occur within the next two months. Do not despair
for I believe this will be the last hurrah before the final meltdown. The
precious metals will shine as never before shortly thereafter. IMHO.

I for one have no empathy for greedy investors that expect 20%-30% gains
yearly forever. They will finally get what they rightfully deserve.

Gone fishing, not for good buys? but the real thing. BBML.

Return to Kitco Homepage

( 5 ) Many Corps. are planning and announcing share buyback plans such as IBM did last October.

( 6 ) Until the average investor is burned by "THE BURNING MATCH" convincingly, this market will continue in an uptrend for a while.

There is an old axiom, turn bearish SLOWLY and turn bullish fast.

The following by Larry Williams:

"Market tops are difficult to identify. This is true partly because of the long duration and partly because tops are made as prices break to new highs. Logically the break to new highs should produce even higher prices and is very difficult to get bearish about. But close study of major market tops shows they ALMOST always come immerdiately after a break to new highs!

In the event you fail to notice the actual market top, there's always one more chance to get out before the real serious damage is done by the rampaging bears. This chance to bail out usually occurs about 3 months after the major market top has been formed. The pattern is one whereprices break badly from the major market top and decline for almost 1 1/2 months. Then an intermediate term rally begins that most people wrongly call the start of a new bull move. It is'nt! It's just the opportunity to do your final selling as prices rally back towards the original high point."

We have what I would call sinister forces such as the PPT, extraordinary media propaganda and biased analysts and pundits that have been working overtime to delay the inevitable. This is probably the reason for long delay of a true bear market from the last October meltdown.

IMHO, I believe that we will break to new highs again ( 10,000+/- ) because of the above. Then an extraordinary event will occur ie: Clinton impeachment, Japanese market and bank failures etc. that will put the final nail in the coffin.

Then and only then flows of capital into PMs, will after major currency devaluations, raise the PMs to unheard of before HIGHS.

P.S. Went trolling for Walleye for 6 hrs. yesterday and came back with jack sh!t while everyone was catching to the left and to the right with a vengence. So, if you want to listen to a loser you do so at your own risk. he he.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:52 - ID#147201)
Squirrel re 99995 gold
This is London Good Delivery. There is tons of it out there and any good mint can get it

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:54 - ID#30126)
Have you checked the Dow charts that I posted last night? The parallels are there..................

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:57 - ID#286230)
No I haven't been back that far yet. Are there parallels to '87 or to '29?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 09:58 - ID#57232)
Hopefull: Please watch for sharefin's posts about the Oldman. The Oldman is an amazing pro -- but he is a day trader, and hence changes his opinions on a dime -- logical if you are a day trader. From reading the AVID posts that sharefin has access to, I get the impression that the Oldman is very worried about a complete market meltdown. But -- I think he acknowledges that the market may surprise us.

Probably the most important point that the Oldman has made is that the US markets and WJC are tightly linked. If WJC fights dirty during pending impeachment proceedings, the markets will take it on the chin. And -- so will WJC's popularity as a consequence. I think the best way of looking at this is that the market mania is based on an excessively optimistic view of the US economy, ignoring the weakening fundamentals. This same mania is behind WJC's popularity, which has been steadily fading since his Aug 17 speech.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:02 - ID#426220)

One of the Far-East's most eminent and astutely insightful analysts
resides in Hong Kong. Which financially and geographically speaking might
be considered the "Hub" of that theater of economic activity. His point of view is one of BEING ON THE SCENE - actually seeing the events evolve and personally feeling the under-currents.

Mr. "Milhouse" ( his handle ) has recently grown very pessimistic of the dire ramifications of the Asian Contagion. He observes " Until recently I had been very positive regarding the long term outlook for Hong Kong. Despite the Chinese takeover, it had appeared as though the Hong Kong market would remain the freest in the world. It was my opinion that a free market coupled with low tax rates would ensure that Hong Kong would inevitably re-assert itself as one of the world's great economic success stories. However, everything changed on 14th August when the Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced to the world that the government was intervening in the share market as a means of maintaining order in the currency market. This intervention effectively means that the Hong Kong share market is now rigged and therefore unsuitable for long term investment."

Furthermore he comments " In order to defend the currency and its peg to the US Dollar, interest rates have been held at high levels for the past 10 months. High real interest rates have resulted in 60% and 40% falls in the stock and property markets respectively,"

Of paramount import "Since that date the HK government has purchased over HK$100 billion worth of shares, using around 15% of its foreign currency reserves in the process. Intervention by the government reached a crescendo on Friday 28th August as an all time record of HK$79 billion of stock changed hands. Of this HK$79 billion turnover of stock, HK$70 billion was purchased by the government. Despite the government being on the buy side of almost 90% of all transactions ( in terms of dollars ) , the Hang Seng Index fell by 1% on that day."

Mr. Milhouse's prognostication for the entire Orient is indeed grim - which is well detailed at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:13 - ID#369369)
Dow is going south today!
The dead cat bounce took much pressure off the over sold position and as a result we can expect the market to remain in its bearish downtrend! Lets hope that gold continues to show strength!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:19 - ID#242325)
I do not know Dr. Doom's identity.

Shepler expects big drop after Labor Day

for 9/2/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/28/98 close: 11.07

Return on current trade: 8.11%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 19.83%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -9.75%

Market Commentary:

After a brutal month of August, the month of September has gotten
off to a much better start for the bulls. Tuesday saw a "strong" bounce
from oversold conditions taking the Dow up 288 points at the close. The
reason we put strong in quotes is that when you look beneath the major
blue chip averages you still see a very weak broader market. We view
this current rally as more smoke and mirrors manipulation by market
professionals and specialists, a chance to squeeze bears and sucker in
bulls ( lemmings ) before the next downleg gets underway. Market internals
are not confirming the rally yet, and bullish complacency is almost at a
fever pitch already. The combination of these two ingredients is not
supportive of much more upside.
Tuesday's trading was a tale of two markets. The big blue chips
soared as the lemmings in the general public rushed in to snap up
"bargains" ( the kind that trade at P/E's of 50 ) . Meanwhile, under the
surface 930 new lows were made on the NYSE versus only 13 new highs
( less new highs than on Monday ) . This type of disparity assures that
this is a bear market rally. And bear market rallies are short and
sharp. However, our proprietary buy/sell indicator did give a confirmed
strong buy signal on the close. This signal has typically preceeded
rallies lasting at least 1 week. However, this time we may see 1 week
compressed into 1-2 days due to the record setting trade volume of 1.2
billion shares traded Tuesday. We are now at a key resistance level of
1000-1010 on the S&P 500 cash index. We expect this resistance to turn
back the advance for at least a re-test of the lows. In fact, we may see
a trading range develop between 1010-935 for a week or so here, to work
off the oversold condition. However, a strong break above 1010 and we
could be off to the races for a test of the 1050 breakdown point.
Market sentiment shows that this rally already has too many true
believers and too few skeptics to survive much longer. The OEX put/call
ratio hit an overly exuberant .82 on Tuesday, as lemmings celebrated the
end of the "correction", or should I say bear market. Expect a downside
reversal Wednesday or Thursday at the latest to test their resolve. The
Rydex ratio still remain high at 145% but fell dramatically from
Monday's 202%. We place much more emphasis on the OEX put/call ratio, as
it is indicative of a greater percentage of market participants, and it
is not looking good for bulls right now.
On the plus side for bulls is our buy/sell indicator, and the record
setting volume showing some updside momentum for the first time in a
while, but on the downside is very high complacency shown by sentiment
indicators and very weak internals. On the balance we are looking for a
choppy trading range with strong resistance at 1000-1010. We also expect
a re-test of the lows shortly. So, we are content to remain with our
current Ursa trade. We think the market may by relatively flat between
now and labor day, but post labor day could see the next downleg resumes
in earnest. The wave structure of the market suggests to us that we
completed wave 1 of the crash wave. After this rebound rally completes,
the next wave down should be the kind that breaks records, so fasten
your seatbelts.

John Disney__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:26 - ID#24135)
Music for entry to 21st century
I suggest Elgar's Enigma Variations

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:27 - ID#330209)
Goldman Sachs
Anyone know the date set for the public offering?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:33 - ID#187109)
Try to keep the course record intact!!

go Plat ( ! ) the course myself.....'tis Wednesday donchaknow...... ( whack! ) ...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:38 - ID#242325)
Jude Wanniski suggests GOLD BACKED RUBLE


September 1, 1998

More IMF Poison for Russia

Memo To: Rep. Tom De Lay, House Republican Whip
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: The International Monetary Funds Evil Empire

You were exactly right in your response to Tony Snow yesterday, when he asked you on
FoxNews Sunday about IMF replenishment. In pointing to the IMF austerity program for
Russia, you cut to the heart of the problem. We give the IMF a big bag of taxpayer money and
they give it to the Russian government ON THE CONDITION that it drink a big bottle of
austerity poison. The tax dollars Russia gets never leave the United States, but are paid directly
to the accounts of the multinational banks that have loaned funds to Moscow. The banks would
not lend mega-billions to Russia if they did not feel the security of the IMF bailout program. And
Russia would not have to get outside "help" if it took a few simple steps to promote internal
growth. Outside capital would flood over the borders if it saw Russia adopting Reaganesque
economic policies.

The reason the Russian parliament, or Duma, drags its feet on passing the laws demanded by the
IMF is that the legislators know how much suffering the IMF program will cause ordinary
people. You were precisely correct in saying this is exactly the wrong time for the Russian
government to be raising taxes, that it should be cutting tax rates instead. The chief reason the
government has such trouble collecting taxes is that the rates are oppressively high when taken in
combination. The state owns almost everything in 11 time zones -- all the land and mineral
resources -- easily worth $10 trillion. In my several visits to Moscow at the invitation of the
Gorbachev and Yeltsin governments, I pointed out to my hosts that the government had to find a
way to transfer these assets to its citizens --- to get capital into their hands. The IMF and the
Harvard economists instead counseled "shock therapy," which cheated the people out of the tiny
bits of capital they held in ruble deposits.

If I were advising Moscow today, I would repeat the advice I gave on my several visits. FIRST,
fix the ruble to gold, so that its own currency is more valuable than the dollar. They cannot build
a market economy without a unit of account. By trying to fix the ruble to the dollar, Russia
imported our dollar deflation, which is the primary reason for its current financial crisis. It
should forget about the dollar and fix its own money by pegging the ruble to gold at 2000 rubles
per ounce -- which is the most credible rate and therefore the most defensible. SECOND, I
would offer unlimited amounts of ruble bonds to the public at that gold-guaranteed rate.
THIRD, I would tell the Russian people a budget DEFICIT in rubles is necessary, to be able to
transfer wealth from the state to the people. FOURTH, I would end the system of oppressive tax
rates that now prevent the development of entrepreneurial capitalism.

Under no circumstances would I give the IMF another $1 of replenishment as long as Michel
Camdessus and Stanley Fischer are in charge. I hope you can persuade Newt to stop talking
about giving the IMF more tax dollars to support its evil deeds around the world.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:38 - ID#384350)
Kitco's Gollum Airlines to Cut 3,000 Jobs
Gollum, the Kitco airline, said it'll fire 3,000 of its 13,000 employees, the Kitco Post said.. The move is designed to help avoid bankruptcy at Gollum, which is burdened with about $400 million in foreign debts, high dollar costs and an artificially low gold price. Its plan to increase domestic airfares by 40 percent in September, followed by an additional increase later, won't be enough, the paper said. Gollum airlines has been savaged by the global currency crisis as the plunge in the price of gold in the past year and soaring interest rates have squeezed demand and raised costs.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:44 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: I'd like to make one small change re one month gold lease
rates. I stated that the last speculative short attack
on gold ( last week ) did not affect one month rates.
Actually the rose very slightly from 0.40 to 0.45%. At
least we are going in the right direction. As the firming
POG begins to unwind the short overhang, we should see
bigger increases in one month lease rates than we see
in spot POG. Shorts will likely cover by borrowing initially,
rather than buying on the spot market.

Once lease rates pass the discount rate, gold will be free of
price constraints

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:47 - ID#23947)
Dow Prediction for next 5 days
Wed 2 Sept close 7250 - 7350
Thur 3 Sept close 7100 - 7200
Fri 4 Sept close 7100 - 7200
Mon 7 Sept close 6100 - 6400
Tue 8 Sept close 5400 - 5700

Based on 1929 crash

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:49 - ID#335184)
Vronsky, Would you be so kind to post your data on the "seasonallity " & HI/lo potential months fo
for POG ?

Dizzy, you old Sea Dog,..., K Passa ?

Do you think Mangy Rangy is a good trading vehicle buy with it't 30% bounce y/d ?

Also, check out Sir rhody's most excellent post on lease rates & let's plot a solution to parlay this into a Y2k Options/ early retirement for me & a Golden Beaux for Ben !



(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:50 - ID#373284)
To think that any American dollars go to support that sc_mbag Camdesuss and
the IMF sickens me...anyone that supports Camdesuss merely wants to keep the welfare state alive...I notice none of these bastards look underfed yet they want the "people" to tighten their belts...for God's these countries where people are starving...have no heat...ah yeah...

Get Camdesuss!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:50 - ID#350194)
Tuna Tales
Thanks for the Loblaw advice Selby, but I don't really like tuna all that much; having lived in British Colunbia for seven years I became quite partial to salmon. Did eat a nice mess of fish at the first unofficial Kitco gathering which was held in T.O on July 30th 1998 ( followed shortly thereafter by the one in Long Island, N.Y. ) . Some of us are thinking of holding another in the Oct. 15th to Nov. 15th timeframe. Think you can make it to that one?
In speaking of the 1987 market crash I was merely saying that the present scenario is unfolding along very similar lines. I'm not predicting that the aftermath would be the exact same. However we did experience some fairly severe after effects of that crash including a very severe recession in the 1989-92 time frame. ( 1990-94 in Canada ) . Cheers.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:51 - ID#249453)
great currency comparison charts link
For those of you who may have missed this link:

You can plot any currency against any currency, including commodity based currency, ie gold,silver,etc

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:53 - ID#284255)
JTF - Ping III
Here you can view Ping III.
The charts seem to point out that we are in the middle of this phase.
And the size of this ping looks to be massive.
All the oscilators have just bounced off extremes.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 10:59 - ID#286230)
Mooney Tunes
I remember the post '87 period very well. I was working for the NDP ( socialist ) government of Ontario. In addition to watching the Provincial debt go from nothing to 50 billion or so I got to go to 2 day seminars to show me how I was discriminating against all visible minorities and was a potential harrasser ( Pres of the US? ) . Most important the NDP brought in a policy that allowed me to retire at 52--HOHOHO. I should be in MegaCity for the next getogether.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:02 - ID#426220)
Gold's dollar price collapsing-gold bug's delight - Sept 2

One of the few analysts who correctly called the BEAR MARKET in STOCKS
Some time ago is Clif Droke. He is basically a technical analyst who relies heavily upon the interpretation of the Elliott Wave and Ganns theories.

Well, he has turned his considerable technical analysis talents to the
GOLD MARKET. His observations have interesting implications for the
short and long-term. Following are excerpts from his latest analysis of the shiny yellow.

" While gold can be expected to fall right along with the overall
commodities sector, we do not view this as inherently bearish for gold
bugs, especially over the long run. Yet we continue to recommend light
accumulation of the metal on each fresh decline in the yellow metal's
price-a seemingly convoluted paradox. Yet there is a very good reason for our stance."

"First, an investor should NEVER be caught without a strong position of gold in his or her portfolio-no less than 10-15%. Second, now as never before, gold ownership is necessary to survival and asset protection from the myriad threats posed by the imminent possibilities of a. ) currency devaluation, b. ) bank asset confiscation by governments in the event of a financial panic, and c. ) the coming Y2K computing crisis."

Droke's latest GOLD observations are shown at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:09 - ID#242325)
Vronsky: Taking a page from Realistic's book, hasn't ORACLE been predicting huge Japanese gold purchases for years? And so far no cigar.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:11 - ID#266105)

From gold standard cheerleader Jude Wannisiki's editorial
posted by Old Gold. Bears repeating:

"They cannot build a market economy without a unit of account."

What would a civil engineer do on a road or dam project
if the ruler foot or avoirdupois lb. varied by 50% or more
randomly in either direction over any given twelve month period?

The two other conditions satisfying the definitions of
money, medium of exchange and particularly store of value
flow entirely from the first definition, unit of account.

Forget Russia, what has the global economy built and
built on what.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:28 - ID#174239)
Capital Gain Taxes on Gold profits
How does this work? If I buy a few coins from the local dealer, then the price doubles and I sell them back, what happens taxwise?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:29 - ID#411440)
@ OLD GOLD: I heard that the Japanese were constitutionaly
forbidden to own gold. Recall that Japan was a nation occupied by
the United States at the time of the writing of the present
Japanese Constitution. Since the Americans are notoriously anti gold,
it would not surprise me to find that the BOJ is forbidden to hold

Is there anybody out there who can verify or quash this concept?
As far as I know, the BOJ has not been buying gold, yet they know
that the USD is in for a fall. It would be logical to sell US
treasuries and buy gold. If they are not doing this, maybe there is
a constitutional block.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:30 - ID#289357)
Gianni Dior

Lets buy some November LEAP puts on GollumAIR....What's the symbol - GASP? The Sheeple are getting a little miffed at the curves and dives of these pilots.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:30 - ID#284255)
Cory Hamasaki's Weather Report

Cage Rattler
(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:31 - ID#33184)

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:39 - ID#286230)
Almost all markets Up
The air is filled with bouncing cats or maybe directions to the tuna aisles.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:43 - ID#369369)
Gollum Airlines Hires Plunge Protection Team!!!!
News Release: Gollum to buyback 15% of its shares..... Not sure of derivitives exposure suggest investors ignor possible exposure...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:47 - ID#147201)
rhody re Jap gold
I don't know the legal details, but back in the 70's when I was watching gold close, the Japs had a buying program and were one of the major accumulators. Evidently, there is no legal provision to prohibit them from buying. In fact, I expect that they will, if not already, will be dumping treasuries etc and that is another headache for Rubin. I'm alsmost certain that is why Rubin and Greenspan are pumping reserves into the banking system. Hope this helps

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:48 - ID#254269)
tolly man; FYI, there is big editorial page story today in WSJ re your
buddy Can't duckus ( whatever his name is ) Have not had time to read
it myself and unable to post it. May be worth your time to read it, since
we all know how much of a fan you are.

BTW, I am currently reading "The Secret Life of WJC" by Ambrose Pritchard. Now, there's a fascinating book for you.

Pretty busy with work right now. BBML

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:50 - ID#410194)
Better times ahead?
Looks like things may have settled down a bit and worldwide anxiety is somewhat diminishing.

As soon as Russia will have its government in place, ( one way or the other, it will end up being in place ) and Japan will have a clear direction coupled with actions in order to clean up their banking mess, a long term recovery in equity ( yes, even in North America ) and commodity prices is at hand.

Of course, smart traders have already position themselves before the recovery will become an obvious thing.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:51 - ID#411440)
@ chas: Thank you. That does help. I guess the sale of US
treasuries by the Japanese has been going into the NIKKEI. We can
only hope that some goes into gold. May Rubin have many such

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:52 - ID#410194)
Ooops, forgot about Gold.

It will also recover but not that much. Just a bit.

Hey, better than nothing!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 11:57 - ID#431200)
Golden Knight pins hopes on Ghana mine

Wednesday 2 September 1998
Golden Knight pins hopes on Ghana mine
The Vancouver Sun
Rod Nutt, Sun Business Reporter Vancouver Sun
Golden Knight Resources Inc. more than doubled its loss in the first half of the year but said the newly opened Tarkwa gold mine in Ghana is operating in excess of planned capacity that should lead to cost savings.
In the first six months of 1998, the Vancouver company lost $1.8 million, or seven cents a share, compared with a loss of $776,000 or three cents a share in the year-earlier half.
Revenues slipped to $121,000 compared with $723,000.
Golden Knight, which is 25.5-per-cent owned by Teck Corp. of Vancouver, attributed lower revenues to lower interest income.
The Tarkwa mine poured its first gold from surface mining operations in early May and by June 30, 15,175 ounces of gold were produced.
Total gold production in the first half, including underground mining, was 42,278 ounces.
Golden Knight's equity share of gold production was 7,399 ounces.
Tarkwa is owned by Gold Fields Ghana Ltd. which in turn is 17.5-per-cent held by Golden Knight, 70 per cent by Gold Fields Ltd. of South Africa, 10 per cent by the government of Ghana and 2.5 per cent by government employee pension funds.
During the second half, Gold Fields Ghana closed a $75 million US syndicated loan arranged by N.M. Rothschild and Sons Ltd.
Tarkwa is currently under expansion that will increased gold production to more than 250,000 ounces of gold annually by the third quarter of 1999.
Golden Knight also has a 60-per-cent interest in the Night Hawk Lake joint-venture near Timmins, Ont.
Knight Hawk is an exploration property on which Golden Knight is drilling to delineate the copper, zinc, gold and silver resource
Golden Knight has interests in 12 other concessions in Ghana and Burkina Faso, both West African countries, as well as a large block of claims in the Timmins gold camp.
Golden Knight closed unchanged Tuesday at 45 cents in Toronto trading on volume of just 5,000 shares.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:01 - ID#253153)
What kind of a bear market are we into ?
As a student of the Dow Theory for the last 30 years, I believe that we are in a SECULAR bear market, NOT a cyclical bear market. What does it mean ? Usually, cyclical bear market correct 20--40 % before turning bullish again and will last 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Secular bear market, historically correct MUCH MORE that anyone anticipate and last 1/3---1\2 as long as long as the previous bull market. The previous bull market lasted for 16 years before terminating on July 17, 98. Secular bear market is accompanied by a depression,runaway deflation and usually will wipe out most of the outstanding debts before it ends. Secular bear markets are very rare ,probably once in a life time and usually are primary in nature , meaning ,they sweep every thing in their path to destruction. Remember, we are in a confirmed Dow Theory Primary Bear Market.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:02 - ID#327123)
I received a "CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS" from RANGY yesterday. I assume others here did also. Their overall "scheme" as the SA's put it sounds benificial to everyone. Does anyone know the results of the Crown Consolidated shareholders meeting 8/28 as it applies to the scheme?
If this scheme flies as advertised I am definetely buying more RANGY.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:03 - ID#411440)

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:06 - ID#240331)
Being short equities and long goldmines, I wish you were right with
your short term Dow predictions....unfortunately I am afraid they are
a little bit ... hmmmm.....too optimistic....Nevertheless I still hope
Dow at 7000 or less before end of this year.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:06 - ID#33184)
Colombia devalues at 12:30am local time !!
Investors thought that Russia's transparency left a little to be desired when it announced its GKO default at 11:30pm Moscow time. Colombia went one better on Tuesday night, devaluing the peso at 12:30am Bogota time. No one's sure about the details -- there was no-one around to answer questions -- but the immediate effect is a 9% drop in the value of the currency against the dollar.

The Colombian central bank spent about $300m of its less than $9bn in foreign reserves over the past three days defending its overvalued currency. On Tuesday alone, it spent $124m.

The country has a current-account deficit of around 6.5% of GDP, which puts continuous pressure on the Colombian peso even when speculators aren't attacking it in the wake of global devaluations. With imports vastly exceeding exports, there's always more demand from importers for dollars than there is by exporters for pesos.

"The devaluation is certainly unexpected, and it hasn't been done in a clear fashion," says Felipe Garcia, Colombia analyst at IDEA. "Everybody knows it was a good idea to devalue, but I would have preferred something a bit more thought-out."

The Colombian central bank maintains the peso within a band against the dollar, a band against the top of which the currency has been pushing for weeks. There's an acceptable rate of devaluation, set at 13% a year, beyond which the central bank will intervene.

After today's action, the rate of devaluation will remain 13% a year, but from a point 9% weaker than it was previously.

"You can never correct an overvaluation with one adjustment," says Garcia. "But the peso's going to be allowed to devalue steadily at 13% a year from here on in, so eventually the currency won't be overvalued any more."

InterMoney expects that with interest rates remaning low, the Colombian central bank will have to continue to intervene to keep the peso below its new ceiling.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:08 - ID#402151)
J Capital gains

I buy gold from my coin dealer with cash. Don't have a reciept. Am going to forget what I paid for it just like I've forgotten what I've paid for all those silver dollars and the silver bullion. Will have no idea what my capital gains will be if I sell. I figure if the gov wants to collect taxes on it they'll do it when the transactions take place.

Gold up...intraday charts looking like Dec could be pushing $300 US in a day or two.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:10 - ID#266105)

Hey Old Gold you sly dog, what's your current exposure
to pm funds if any, and, if this second $2 up day holds,
planned exposure by say, the end of the week.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:12 - ID#284255)
State Y2K fix 'slow,' GAO warns

Hurry up but don't mention anything.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:14 - ID#189268)
Realistic(Better times Ahead?)
Sorry Realistic I could not disagree with you more about this statement. Even though it is a question I assume based on your non-dispute that you concur. The worst is ahead. Russia has no governement and cannot form one without a major communist presence. The stalling of Chernomyrdin's PM confirmation is really a battle ground for increased communist power. I find it interesting that some pundits like Abby Joseph Cohen and others take great pains to point out how small the Russian econonomy is comparing it from the size of Belgium or to the size of the Domincan Repulic. Yet this small economy has already caused financial companies in the U.S to lower thier earnings by over $1.5 billion so far. In the U.K. Barclays Bank said the crisis will knock $393 million off its' pretax profit. The final tally will be in the billions. Seems to me these losses are disporportionate for such a tiny economy. What happens if there is a banking faiure in Japan? How much leverage will have to be unwound? The big sell-off in the U.S. market was not Joe sixpack, it was margined Hedge funds and Mutual funds cashing out. When the average person gets scared amd they will it will be truly ugly. This new era of heightened tensions world-wide does not lead to a resumption of the bull market. There will be more negative surprises in the near future IMHO.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:16 - ID#288295)

There was a notice posted here recently about the Crown deal on Durban Deep's website. I haven't had a chance to look at it, however.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:20 - ID#347235)
Der Schlickmeister
Heard him on WBBM this morning, said he read his speech of 17 Aug and found it said all there was to say about an apology!!!!! I predict the sheeple will be highly POd and he will self destruct soon. COMMENTS?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:20 - ID#286230)
JP may have your inverted optimism beat.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:29 - ID#377196)
I also received the circular and found that on page 5 they list
a joint venture with Southern Era as one of their assets. But on the
latest SUF report they list that SUF has 40 % and Debeers has 60%.
SUF made no mentions of any payments to RANGY.

What is going on here?

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:30 - ID#246224)
A few thoughts on 'moral money' and the value of gold, etc
I have appreciated RJ's reposts. BuGaL_A's posts also. Thanks.

The world is a very complex place. There are religious, military, political and economic forces which are in a constant give and take. At this time economic forces seem to have the place of preeminant power and can easily force changes in the other camps. Different countries and regions are experiencing different alignments of these straining giants.

America seems to be the unconquerable economic power among nations. This is only true because of a rare alignment of these various forces ( in its favor ) . It is not the nation itself that is powerful, but the powers which make the nation and its place in the world powerful in relationship to those less so aligned. This has been called by some 'the American Century'. In this century we have been spared what we experienced as a smaller, growing nation in the first century of its existence: The Revolutionary War and its depression aftermath, the War of 1812 with France and its economic aftermath, the Civil War and its aftermath as well as the intense and wretching changes brought about by the industrial revolution and various financial mania and collapses.

Its been a great century for us so far. We haven't had a war on our soil. No revolution to spoil the stability of government. No real threats to our way of life. A great success story.

In contrast to this consider the experience of Europe, Africa and Asia during this century. Two World wars and major wars in China, Korea, Russia, various in Africa. Economic and political havoc has abounded. The north-western quarda-sphere ( half a hemisphere ) composed of Mexico, Canada and the United States has been quite tranquil in comparison.

Having a very America-centric view of money, we Americans tend to be pretty blithe to the difficulties others have experienced as we have basked in the untroubled sunlight of an unearned valle halla. RJ noted very briefly that he would have a different prespective on gold if he was not living here in America.

How long will our peace be undisturbed? And when it is broken what will people elsewhere think of our dollar or our way of doing business. Put another way: What will happen when the winds of power begin to blow against us instead of in our favor? I'm not sure we have all that long to wait to find out.

I doubt that America will simply disappear one morning. Instead it will decline into the realm of 'just another country', a former legend like Greece, Rome, China, Spain or Britian. Unfortunately, it seems that when ever a nation loses its claim to the highest place then there is a time of turmoil and trouble in many far flung places.

One tell tale sign of the impending fall is a debasement of the currency. At a time when expectations rise, means fall. Then debt or debasement of the currency follow. The nation still enjoys its place for a time, but internally it rots. Eventually the decline comes, by whatever means, and seals the documents of forefiture.

But who knows? We are in a new era I hear. And, of course, "This could never happen to a nation as great, wonderful, unique and irreplacable as _____________." ( fill in the blank, it has been filled in with many names before us ) .

When will this take place? Many have said these things before and felt the end was near, but it was not as near as they thought. Pragmatists will wait until the transition and then slide to another position from which to remain profitable. Many others will hold on desperately to a hope that things will return to normal, but they will be swallowed up by the transitional phase. I can't tell you it will happen to the USA tomorrow or the next day. But a good hedge, as many who have never set foot in America can testify first hand, is a vital part of a strategy for riding through transitions rather than being ridden over by them. I believe that gold and silver are good hedges with this regard.

Doesn't this look like a time of transition to you? Fortunately for you you do not have to compete with 40 to 80 million others to purchase your hedge .. yet.

Happy sulfing. Ride the wave. Go gold.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:31 - ID#320202)
XAU- forcast
looking at Auger's Xau-forcast, gives me the creeps ......

apreciate any comments, as how acurate the elliot wave system is ?

thank you

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:32 - ID#229207)
HKSE bans short sales

HONG KONG, Sept 2 ( Reuters ) - The Stock Exchange of Hong
Kong said on Wednesday it had decided to reinstate the tick
rule for short-selling of stocks, banning short sales below the
best current ask price.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:33 - ID#26350)
(To J): Taking coin profits
Keep the receipt that shows what was paid for the coins. At the end of the year when they are sold US capital gains are then owed on the profits ( or refund recouped if a loss must be taken ) . Just like a painting or other item that is bought and then sold for a profit. However, nothing is owed until after the sale takes place. You can hold coins in an IRA now I believe--it requires some paper work, but shouldn't be too difficult if one qualifies, don't know about a Roth, though. Also, check with your dealer. I forget if you can "trade," one coin for another without paying taxes on them. I think you can trade up without being taxed. I need to make a list of the coins I have and trade some for others, as you can sell at more of a premium if you get a "set" after some purchases. But its like drawing cards, at first I didn't know which hand I'd be drawing for. Regards.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:33 - ID#153110)
@Angry Sheep
Goiters News Service. An uprising of sheep is reported nationwide. Angry rams and ewes are mad and vowing just to not take it anymore. "It" is variously reported as the fleecing and the slaughter. Meadows are being trampled in every district. A spokeman said Herders are unconcerned.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:34 - ID#229207)
Yuan policy not necessarily 'forever'-Jiang quoted
TOKYO, Sept 2 ( Reuters ) - Chinese President Jiang Zemin was
quoted as saying China is committed to the stability of the
yuan but cannot be certain that that policy will continue
indefinitely, a Japanese daily said on Wednesday.

It said Jiang was quoted by former Japanese prime minister
Toshiki Kaifu as telling him in a meeting on Tuesday: "China
has chosen to maintain the stability of the yuan and there is
no change in this policy at present.

"However, we cannot be 100 percent certain ( on maintaining
the policy ) , forever. This might not continue in the future."

Financial daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun said Jiang was also
quoted as saying: "We're paying attention to the recent
financial situation and developments in Japan. We would like
Japan to play a role for the stability of the financial system
in Asia and the rest of the world."

( ( - Tokyo Treasury Desk ( 813 ) 3432-8676 ) )

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:41 - ID#153110)
@Allen I trust the fact the War of 1812 was with the British and their Colonials and
not with France will not necessitate revision of the central thesis of your post.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:42 - ID#373284)
RETIRED SOLDIER, Namaste' of my favorite topics...this slob Clintler
goes to Russia for no other reason than to take people's minds off of the soon to be released Starr report and Mouthica...who bless her heart is nothing more than a meaningless non-player in the high treason crimes the slob Clintler has committed...the media like the laps dogs they are continually harp on the sexual antics while leaving the real story alone...

The two slobs met in Russia for what the media calls a what...they met on a mountain top...while the people of Russia have not been paid...starve and freeze in the winter the slobs eat caviar...warm and comfortable...billions have been sent to Russia and the slob and his henchmen robbed instead of doing what is right and should be done...and our slob praises this activity...while he speaks of democracy and free markets which do not exist...

America will pay dearly for the crimes this slob has committed...but the people will not get it until they have no money and they see their children come home in body bags...I guess that is the way history goes...darn shame though...

Gold will go up as the markets deteriorate...the slob will be disgraced and I believe impeached or resign based on the Starr report...the people of Islam will not forget the missles the slob rained down on them...what most people do not know is that the factory destroyed by the slob provided health/medical items primarily for children in the region...without these medical supplies 10s of thousands of children will suffer...many will die...their will be severe retaliation from the slob's stupidity and arrogance...Americans ignorant of this fact will pay with their they walk into a subway...sit down for a meal or merely walk past a chosen target...

I could go on...but gold will not rocket due to market conditions it will move up based on the slob's stupidity in international affairs and the report Starr provides...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:46 - ID#402151)

Coin Universe CU3000 index continues its rise. Up 7.44% yoy. Seems value added PM have been a better investment than bullion. I'd recommend some of both. Bullion for Armageddon.
Coins just in case
Y2K is a bust.
Stocks if you need some capital losses...hahahahaha.
Futures if you want ulcers. Options if you want to die broke, or incredibly
Tulips if you are a very old Dutchman who is into dollar cost averaging and into it for the "long haul". "I'm not sellin these stinkin' bulbs until I get what I paid for them. My broker says this market is coming back."
Beanie babies if you just want to get rid of some money. It's a little more work than burning it, but you get something cute for your shelf.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:51 - ID#212197)
Americans believe in their stock market as strongly as
in Clinton's magic as a "great statesman".
I met a colleague today of whom I knew that he follows the financial markets and found it even a good idea to buy gold a few months ago ( because of Y2K related fears ) . He told me that he had put several thousand dollars at risk yesterday to buy "dips" ( i.e., high-tech stocks which had lost a lot these days ) .
The Washington Post reported about a public discussion about Clinton.
People give him credit for the economy, even though they do not trust his character. A woman was quoted who said that she thinks she was able to refinance her mortgage by saving 2% interest and she felt she owed this benefit to Mr. Clinton whom she basically despises because of his rotten character.

This public believe that the US presidents run the American economy always scared me. It shows that people anticipate of living in a state run, centrally planned, communist or socialist economy.

Where does this believe come from, that a grown up person thinks she/he got a low mortgage interest rate from the president?

What's even more important to ask: what can we expect from these kind of people?

Virtual reality, where the audience doesn't know anymore whether the container where they are sitting, is attached to a submarine or to an aircraft carrier ( of course from Gollum Air Lines ) ?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:53 - ID#342376)
Very good article about why a Fed rate cut may not be likely....

Richard Burke
(Wed Sep 02 1998 12:57 - ID#411318)
Lady_bug: Yes, we may be seeing the rise to 55 or 60-63 now with the big drop to 35 coming as the general market collapses in a few days or next week. Then hopefully, we will see the XAU start to recover.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:01 - ID#229207)
My previous post: Yuan policy not necessarily 'forever'-Jiang quoted
"Unless the Japanese turn their economy around in the next month or so we're going to have to devalue. It's not our fault. We didn't want to but with the Yen so cheap, what can we do? But we won't do it right away. Maybe in a while, a long while or a little while. We'll let you know. It all depends."

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:04 - ID#289357)
lady_bug (XAU- forecast)

Elliott's waveform system has been found to work reasonably well in FREE ( non-manipulated ) diverse markets and in a way reflects psychology.

IMHO, it works best in retrospect....and is only a way of predicting the most probable alternatives for future price direction and level, not exact price or direction.

It is also highly dependant on the one making the wave count or interpretation - some are obviously better than others.

Having said all that, I think that the XAU forecast you mention should always be used in combination with OTHER technical or predictive methods before trading on the information.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:08 - ID#246224)
Mozel, I flunqed histere, too.
When was our little tif with France then? 1801? It was so long ago, and my memory is getting a bit fuzzy. But thesis still intact ( maybe ) ! Everyone always picking on the new kid, and all that.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:09 - ID#426220)

"Vronsky: Taking a page from Realistic's book, hasn't ORACLE been predicting huge Japanese gold purchases for years?
And so far nocigar."

Firstly, certainly any "realistic" person could not so nave to believe the inscrutably discreet Nippons would ever allow the world to know what they are doing until they have accumulated all the GOLD THEY NEED. To believe the Japanese would be so dumb as to telegraph their intentions is to be totally ignorant of their history.

I have studied and worked with the Japanese numerous times in my life.
Consequently, they command my unqualified respect. Nonetheless, I am obliged to observe the following based upon my experiences. The Japanese culture has always - and remains today - a totally closed society, taking NO ONE INTO THEIR CONFIDENCE. Whereas the entire world amalgamates or melts one culture and race into neighboring ones, the Japanese have remained discriminatorily pure. Demographic statistics I have seen show them to be 99.9% of pure Nippon origin. This strictly secular attitude extends even - unbelievably - to their BASEBALL. By law the maximum number of non-Japanese players on their professional teams is LIMITED TO 3 "FOREIGN" players. The "token" representation to avoid ACCUSATIONS OF DISCRIMINATION.

My point is the Japanese would never ever allow their intentions to leak to the West. Whether this is a demonstration of cultural arrogance or simply total distrust of the West is beyond the scope of my understaanding.

BTW, ORACLE suggested the Japanese were indeed accumulating GOLD only
this past June, and not as you suggest "ORACLE been predicting huge
Japanese gold purchases for years."

For those who desire to read what the ORACLE indeed said, please see
the report "JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES RUMORED" shown at the following
URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:10 - ID#153110)
"This public believe that the US presidents run the American economy always scared me. It shows that people anticipate of living in a state run, centrally planned, communist or socialist economy." I would substitute "recognize they live" for "anticipate of living"; not as a correction but for the change of meaning.

"Where does this believe come from, that a grown up person thinks she/he got a low mortgage interest rate from the president?" This belief comes from the FDR myth, the reality of the consitutional dictaroship, the media, and the candidates for office.

"What's even more important to ask: what can we expect from these kind of people?" So far they are travelling the seig heil highway according to my lights.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:12 - ID#266105)

Gold Dancer/rangy-- last I read rangy would be getting
around 9mil USD from SUF this month for their interest.

So the ploy is to introduce Roach Motel capital controls,
you can get in but you can't get out. While buying shares
on the facto nationalization. Then arbitrarily
pegging the currency purchasable only from the government.
While printing a mountain of it. Oughta work. Not.

k1 theme song-- definitely Riders on the Storm.

k2....mmmm...Society's Child?

Back to the tablesaw.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:15 - ID#426220)
JAPANESE GOLD PURCHASES... no word until fait acompli

Confirmation of Japan's Gold Purchases... not until it is a
fait accompli

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:21 - ID#153110)
In 1757 or thereabouts, North America was a field of contest between the Brits and us and the French and Indians. It wasn't really our fight. It's the only thing close to tiffy that I know of.

France was the ally of the new kid on the block as it served France's purposes in blocking the British. But, the expense of war and support for the American cause bankrupted France, led to the revolution there, and to Napoleon. After his defeat, Prince Metternich hosted the Congress of Vienna to "contain" the subversive idea of all men being created equal. Modern containment policy was modelled on Metternich's methods. Kissinger wrote about Metternich with admiration.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:23 - ID#229207)
It's true that if the Japanese were accumulating gold they'd try to keep this a secret. But that does not follow that 1 ) if they are accumulating they are necessarily able to successfully keep this a secret or that 2 ) not hearing about Japanese gold accumulation means that they are in fact accumulating gold. The fact is that aside from an offhand threat over a year ago to dump US treasuries and buy gold, no official in Japan has made a peep about gold. There has been no convergence of credible rumors and, of course, no evidence.

That leaves only wishful thinking, the same demon that's driving the stock markets.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:25 - ID#426220)
Gold's dollar price collapsing-gold bug's delight - Sept 2

One of the few analysts who correctly called the BEAR MARKET in STOCKS
Some time ago is Clif Droke. He is basically a technical analyst who relies heavily upon the interpretation of the Elliott Wave and Ganns theories.

Well, he has turned his considerable technical analysis talents to the
GOLD MARKET. His observations have interesting implications for the
short and long-term. Following are excerpts from his latest analysis of the shiny yellow.

" While gold can be expected to fall right along with the overall
commodities sector, we do not view this as inherently bearish for gold
bugs, especially over the long run. Yet we continue to recommend light
accumulation of the metal on each fresh decline in the yellow metal's
price-a seemingly convoluted paradox. Yet there is a very good reason for our stance."

"First, an investor should NEVER be caught without a strong position of gold in his or her portfolio-no less than 10-15%. Second, now as never before, gold ownership is necessary to survival and asset protection from the myriad threats posed by the imminent possibilities of a. ) currency devaluation, b. ) bank asset confiscation by governments in the event of a financial panic, and c. ) the coming Y2K computing crisis."

Droke's latest GOLD observations are shown at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:28 - ID#266105)

My favorite line, from Last of the Mohicans movie...
a British officer trying to enlist the locals says to
Hawkeye who'd gone somewhat native, dressed in buckskin,
in response to how it was beholden upon him to defend
honor, dignity, the Queen, the crown, the empire, whatever.

Hawkeye: "Don't feel much beholden to anything, sir."

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:28 - ID#426220)

I apologize for inadvertant double post.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:28 - ID#153110)
It seems to me Chinese statements on Yuan devaluation are proportional to USG attacks on the Euro. Is the Orient Express in scheduled service again ?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:33 - ID#347235)
Agree with you completely, in about three more weeks I will be offline while I go join Miss Lois ( My sweet wife ) in Garmisch Partenkirchen. I would like to suggest that as a venue for the KITCO gathering in 2000 when the Oberamergau Passion Play will be only 20 miles away.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:34 - ID#227238)
More "out of inventory".
How quickly things are a changin'. Just called the local coin dealer and was told that they are out of inventory on all bullion coins. For the first time in recent memory. I was also told that shipments from their suppliers are taking longer as well.

The paradigm is shifting more rapidly. The folks on the street are beginning to wake up. And what they're smelling ain't the morning coffee.

Got gold? If not there may not be any when yer ready to move. ..... We're truly balancing on a knife's edge.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:40 - ID#35571)
Wishfull thinking and fearfull thinking.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:52 - ID#340344)
Push the reset buttons
Gollum... I heard about a local guy who owns a push-button horse. Now,
I don't know *exactly* what that is, but I was thinking that maybe, in
the re-structuring of Gollum Airlines, you could expand to other modes of transportation. You know, a little more Y2K friendly w/ less technology.
Buy a horse. It wouldn't be meant for riding, in the beginning. It would be for pushing reset buttons on the various Kitco websites. It is obvious that they keep needing to be reset. If simply pushing a button is all that's needed, then, why not put a PB horse in charge of pushing each button every few hours, so we wouldn't suffer so much from the steady *and increasing* overload stoppages. The silver charts from yesterday give me a hint of what will likely happen to so many chip applications with Y2K. *Sometimes the thing will work* *sometimes the thing will stop functioning* * and sometimes it will keep operating but will spew out faulty data.* Put a PB horse on the payroll today. [My thanks to Sharefin, Cory Hamasaki, and others for pointing out that truly scary concept. The Y2K chip problem, that is. I take full responsibility for the horse thing.] By the way, re: Y2K, I am *bullish* on horses. **And, take a look at the silver chart before they change it, and you will see silver plummeting about 25%.**

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:53 - ID#410198)
Earl...give me a call....order as much as you like....if we run out no problem we will make more :-)

(Wed Sep 02 1998 13:58 - ID#153110)
@2BR02B As I recall the scene, the Major was reminding the colonials of their
feudal martial obligations as loyal subjects of King George, to which Natty Bumpo replied that he did not consider himself subject to much of anything. In other words, he deftly died any obligation to serve.

Sort of like, "Hell, no, we won't go" of a more recent era.

A comparable declaration today would be I am not a party to your Constitution, pledge no allegiance to your flag, nor do I confess an obligation to pay on the debt amassed in your self-serving engangements on behalf of special interests.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:05 - ID#242325)
straw in the wind
Bear Stearns economist david Malpass wants to end the strong dollar policy. Now that it is starting to cost them, the big boys are tuning against Rubin. The following quote from an op en in today's WSJ is instructive

"Simply changing from the current strong dollar policy to a stable dollar policy would allow gold and commodity prices to recover moderately from their current deflation-spooked levels and end the talk of world deflation."

Clearly many on Wall Street now want higher gold and commodity prices. How times have changed!

The super gold bears now face some very powerful opposition.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:06 - ID#286230)
Asia Europe North and South America
Almost all markets world wide are up--on the day.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:06 - ID#229207)
The Chinese want nothing less than to run Asia, economically if possible, militarily if the right opportunity arises. When that Yuan train gets a-rollin', no telling where she'll stop.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:06 - ID#242325)
straw in the wind
Bear Stearns economist david Malpass wants to end the strong dollar policy. Now that it is starting to cost them, the big boys are tuning against Rubin. The following quote from an op en in today's WSJ is instructive

"Simply changing from the current strong dollar policy to a stable dollar policy would allow gold and commodity prices to recover moderately from their current deflation-spooked levels and end the talk of world deflation."

Clearly many on Wall Street now want higher gold and commodity prices. How times have changed!

The super gold bears now face some very powerful opposition.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:09 - ID#338418)
Poland buys 70 tons
According to Bridge which posts hte CRB individual commodity news,
Poland just bought 70 tons because 'it is nobodies debt'. If true
that Euro CB's stop leasing in January , we may get a break.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:12 - ID#229207)
Wishful thinking begets fearful thinking. They are both rooted in magical thinking.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:15 - ID#289357)
Old Gold

How are we doin' with that strong dollar?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:22 - ID#242325)
Dollar looks near beakdown from that chart, but pretty strong today.

I finally agree with realistic on something. Gold and commodity prices are pretty washed out and should be headed up before too long. Ditto for the stocks related to these sectors.

But the big cap darlings still have a long way to fall.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:24 - ID#229207)
Selby: world markets up today
Indeed they are. The massive wave that covered the beach on Monday pulls back under its own weight to reveal pretty rocks and sea shells on the exposed sand. Many are running out to gather them up. Off in the distance a larger wave builds off the node of the Monday wave. Does it hit tomorrow or Friday?

Metaphore: Gollum ( c )


(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:27 - ID#147201)
Mozel re Natty Bumpo
I know a lot of Natty Bumpo,s. They are as you say. Largely independent, regardless of their financial position. I have to agree with your representation of the FDR myth. I have worked with them and from trading the flea markets, I think I have a good idea what to expect from them. They have been variously characterized as "Joe Sixpak" etc, but not as the rebellious type of survivalist. They are the ones that voluntarily filled infantry ranks and are the first to come to the aid of anybody in trouble. They need help, but they don't know or believe it. They will provide the work that is required for infra-structure rebuilding. They will be the underpinnings of the new move in gold. I'm really glad you brought up this definition. Their ability to handle themselves exceptionally well wil belie their adherence to any political or government concept. Thanx a bunch, Charlie

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:31 - ID#373284)
FWIW...there are many here that post who ask for suggestions on stocks in Canada
in the mining are is my contention that they are under-valued and will fly when the metals move...each has its own web site with the exception of TNX...I own shares in each, a bunch of shares...they are cheap at present in my opinion...these are the four I own outside of my main holdings...just some suggestions...Namaste'

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:33 - ID#373284)
RETIRED SOLDIER, Namaste' and have a safe trip...I hope you and yours enjoy
your time overseas...2000...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...let us see what we shall see...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:37 - ID#289357)

Yep...looks like all these things are tied together....

The crb index appears to be bottoming

The important question in my mind is:

When the stock indices are falling ( more ) , and bond yields start up, and the dollar accelerates downward - will the USG dump gold on the market to manipulate the price and negate its possible status as a 'currency' of last resort? Will they allow/force the IMF to be complicit in such an activity, with the same result?

Desperate men do desperate things, and I will bet that these people ( with vested interests in a high dollar ) will not let the status of 'world reserve currency' go easy. Real money is the antithesis of their system. The war on gold may be a prime directive.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:38 - ID#281175)
NY Times...G-7 leaders at a loss for

Mahatmir has started the ball unravelling now...these "investors" with money in Malayasia are 90% speculators...i.e. banks, hedge funds, etc...when they can't get their money out defaults will be inevitable. The free flow of funds in getting all backed up at various places...Russian defaults, Malayasia currency controls, Mexico abandoned bond sales...Japans bank failure dragging down highly leveraged derivative deals will be a major week?, next month?

Is Rubin worried...I think he's going to resign.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:43 - ID#35571)
They'll simply sell bonds as neccesary to support yields. This will absorb dollars and put them back in the till.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:47 - ID#35571)
Wishfull thinking, Fearfull thinking, Magical thinking. All are maya.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:47 - ID#281175)
That bad-breath bear is back out on The Street
Panic will set in after grinding decline until 17 Sept.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:48 - ID#372262)

above 8,000 ON HEAVY VOLUME, the reverse head and shoulders top will be convincingly in place and the next target for the DOW will be 5,000 or lower!! Once again for the faint of hearing, GOLD HAS BOTTOMED. DOW HAS TOPPED! Nikkei headed for 11,600 short term and 6,100 long term! Hang Seng headed for 6,300 short term and 4,300 long term! The next shoe is about to drop! Look out below!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:50 - ID#372262)
to stave off fears of DEFALTION and DEPRESSION!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:51 - ID#30126)
After the USG has sold all of its' gold, then what will it have? A strong currency? Who will 'own' the gold? Sounds good in theory, but as is often the case, I don't think it'll work in reality. Then again, what's to say these folks are grounded in reality?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:52 - ID#35571)
minor nexus
Tomorrow, Friday particulary, and Monday possibly are a nexus. Should the markets hold we will proceed through some sort of labor day rally.
If they don't we get an early start on the next plunge.
Next nexus, a major one, after the ides.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:54 - ID#30126)
TICK is negative, Dow is pulling back, TRIN close to 1, AND it' after 3:00 P.M.! Uh oh.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:56 - ID#350179)
Headlines not yet seen
And the DOW is now off more than 100 points from its high...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:57 - ID#35571)
Once upon a time one of the officers of Bell Labratories used to keep a black metal box on his desk that had an on/off switch on the front. If you turned it on, the lid would open up and a little arm would extend out, shut off the switch, and go back inside.

Ronald Jett__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 14:58 - ID#413119)
PM London Gold
Can someone confirm the London Gold P.M. price fromyesterday. I had it at 279.00 Kitco now has it at 280.15. Which is correct for my records
thanks for help

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:01 - ID#281175)
Mexican hangover from '94 Tequilla party.

Debt, debt, everywhere debt and bonds...exponential growth of debt culminating in debt collapse...only way it can end.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:01 - ID#289357)
First of all.....there is no more than anedotal evidence that the US HAS ANY GOLD, so how would anyone know if they were sellers?

Secondly - I'm more worried about the IMF gold stash being sold - it is very large, they are in big trouble ( everywhere ) , and it isn't likely that there would be much support in the US for another IMF funding.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:01 - ID#93241)
You been meditating again?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:06 - ID#430221)
About a month ago I made the prediction that DROOY would hit
$15 by Jan of next year. Then the golds plunged again in late Aug.

Well, while it doesn't seem possible I am sticking to my forcast.

DROOY builds a base in the $2 range in September and blows off
to the upside in the following months. It has happened to stocks
before ( making that kind of a move ) and I thinks things are building
a head of steam. Underneath, all this complacency by the public is
the knowledge that all is not well.

Reality will rise to the surface quickly in our techno era. Emotions
will turn on a dime ( the copper variety ) and go for the real stuff.


Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:09 - ID#261295)
@Gold Dancer ... if DROOY

goes to $15US by January, I will personally look you up anywhere in the world and give you a great big KISS ON THE OLE SMACKEROO... How's that?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:12 - ID#426220)

Although off its high today ( 2 3/32 ) , DROOY has penetrated its downtrend
and 50 day Moving Average. A solid close this week above 2 1/4 would indeed be encouraging. The last two days have witnessed renewed investor interest in nearly all the South African gold. And if memory serves, historically the SA golds led even the XAU.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:12 - ID#30126)
The point being that if the IMF sells gold, what do they get in return? U.S. dollars? If the depression in gold prices that would result, in turn wipes out commodity pricing power, whither the economies that are dependent on them? In turn this would lead to troubles for the U.S. economy and the 'tax' base which would lead to declining 'credit quality'... In a nutshell, big heapum trouble would result from the sale, not that it would stop them from doing it though...

Just remember, you can never do just ONE thing.........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:13 - ID#426220)

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:15 - ID#430221)
I'll settle for a gold coin. DROOY 15 + or - 10% by end of Jan. '99.

You can e-mail me the coin!! If it works great, if not, you win
both ways.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:15 - ID#35571)
My meditations tell me that last Friday through yesterday the markets saw some violent whipsaw action as often occurs in bear markets. During such whipsaws people, banks, brokerage houses, funds, and other institutions take some major hits and windfalls. Especially in this day and age of large derivatives exposures.
By this Thursday and Friday margin calls come due and we begin to hear rumors of who survived and who didn't.
The outcome determines whether everyone relaxes and shoots off a little more powder...or go from from fear toward panic and terror.
In '29 they went down. In '87 they pulled through. Other than that little difference.
We are again coming to the turning point of many lives.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:16 - ID#213265)
@the scene
moa -- That's the ONLY way any usury based system can end. Doesn't matter WHO's it is. Funny, but there are some here that cannot fathom the concept.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:22 - ID#251166)
Whimpering Bull . . .
@ 3:27 p.m. CBS Market Monitor --

Dow Industrials up 58.96
Dow Transportation down 22.62

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:23 - ID#289357)
I agree - everything is interrelated, and the law of unintended consequences will reign supreme if they sell the IMF gold. Although in the short term it would smash the gold price, it would also remove one threat that has been offered ad nauseum over the last 20 or 25 years.

If the IMF ever sells gold, I will be in gold up to my eyeballs very shortly thereafter.

As to what the IMF would get for the gold - I frankly haven't followed their dastardly deeds like some others here have. Perhaps they would just take the dollars, loan it out and wait on the borrower's currency to collapse like it has everywhere else. Bottom line - they end up with zero, ziltch, nada, except the Swiss accounts and hideaways of the IMF principals ( whom I am sure will do quite well, thank you very much )

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:28 - ID#369369)
Be Patient Everyone Our Day Is Near!
North, West, East, South..... No matter which direction you look there are grenades in every direction just waiting to blindside the world economy,more specifically currencies... Abx and Pdg are looking and acting well today and they often move prior to gold..... We will see how much determination the ppt have at the close today..

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:32 - ID#251166)
. . . hobbles slowly back toward the corral . . .
DJI 13.13
Trans -35.33

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:36 - ID#373284)
If the IMF sells gold the next photograph you see of will be with
my dog mounting him...and that is a promise...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:36 - ID#119358)
close enough? or.....never up, never in?

T#1.....great blast 'o Clitton. ban da' bum. salud y una gulpO y una puffO daddyO. go get 'em, bOssman.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:37 - ID#372262)
Must get back to single digits before bear can come to an end. Stocks still wildly overvalued!

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:38 - ID#430221)
debt, debt and more debt
Written off how? Distroyed how? Or in what way? That is the
unknown. Thru inflation or thru default? Same result, however, Gold
and silver will stand supreme.

One little fly in the ointment: totalitarian controls so only the
rich survive. Will that work? I don't think that with the attitutdes of
the people towards their governments that it would. People will just
say f*** you. But then, the "people don't have gold and silver they
have pension plans in US dollars. So what will they do? What will they
do? That is the question to be answered.

I see a big ralley in gold coming but don't think it will last
forever. Deflation and destruction coming. Everything in flux.

In the end all will lose something. Not possible to be right for
long. Interesting times a coming.

Must be more to life than money for
one to survive the future. That is what I truly believe.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:38 - ID#372262)
Must get back to single digits before bear can come to an end. Stocks still wildly overvalued! Dow will close DOWN on the day!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:40 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff back at ya...and I thank you, he is my
second favorite after...Get CAMDESUSS!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:41 - ID#251166)
. . . snorting wetly . . .
DJI -17.77
Trans -41.46

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:44 - ID#242325)
Today's WSJ op ed by a Big Bear Stearns honcho signals that many in the financial community now recognize they have carried the war on gold too far for their own good. To be sure these people will demand anti-gold action if the price goes much above $350. But I think they recognize that prices have dropped too much, and would support action to boost the trading range to $325-$350.

Many of these same people such as publisher Malcom Forbes are bitterly anti-IMF. So any IMF scheme to dump its gold reserves probably will meet with strong opposition by many in elite financial circles.

Unfortunately we did not score a $2 upday today. So Hepcat's buy signal is still on hold.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:47 - ID#373284)
Oh my darling...oh my darling...oh my darling paradigm...heh...heh...heh...lets see
how long Mr 70% does in the polls when Americans starts to lose their life savings...yup...America did not mind Mouthica going down on Clintler...but I can assure you they will not like their savings going down on them...nope...

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:47 - ID#430221)
sometimes I type so fast..

Tolerant1: I would love a photo of that anyway. Can you arrange?

Thanks in advance, Gold Dancer

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:50 - ID#251166)
. . . murmuring through the froth, "f * ing shorts . . . "
DJI -50.72
Trans -50.77

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:50 - ID#119358)
@T#1...DO NOT, I repeat,...........
DO NOT allow your dog to engage Camdessus again. Already Arf has suffered more than any good doggie should. And, Canineuss is well known around euro-kennels for his sick doggal-69ism. yes, one sick puppyman.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 15:55 - ID#373284)
Gold Dancer, Namaste' it will be on the cover of Newsweek, you won't miss it but I
will send a pawtographed original to ya...STUDIO_R, Namaste' have no fear my dog will be wearing an ALPOlactic...

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:05 - ID#369369)
Could not hold the Dow but as a consolation!!!!
They hammered the Senior Golds at the close....

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:07 - ID#251166)
". . . dad-gum market manipulators," then stops, silent . . .
DJI -45.06
Trans -51.22

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:09 - ID#25257)
9 Fruits
Longsuffering, one of the Precious Fruits, aye Mr. Jones?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:10 - ID#269128)
gold moon

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:11 - ID#251166)
. . . and mercifully dies.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:21 - ID#234406)
Does anyone have any comment about this Gold Mining Company which was a couple years ago on Canada's equivalent of the Dow Industrials. I've patiently owned it for several years. Seems it used to be $8 but unfortunately is now 12.5 cents. This great company surely will return to glory someday. Should I be buying more? I need to do research.

Thanks for any comment. You may e-mail


(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:22 - ID#288295)

I thought that WE were in an elite financial circle......Hmmmmmmm.....maybe that's not exactly what you had in mind ( ;^ ) )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:22 - ID#401460)
Where else ONE day return 14+%
4:00PM 1


(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:26 - ID#251166)
@ zeke-a-rama -- how are ya, compadre!
Still got any money left after this last downdraft? ( I'm hanging tough with nine dollars in checking and another $17.50 cash advance limit on my copper visa . . . so doing fine. )

Yes, longsuffering -- as in patience -- one of those GOLDEN character attributes I learned a long time ago to quit praying for. But you know how Dad works . . .

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:29 - ID#288295)

I used to own Caledonia, but haven't followed it in a long time. However, they do have a web site:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:30 - ID#359316)
Standing on the Shoulders of Giants
The new British 2 pound coins, which are made of concentric rings of
metal, one in gold-coloured metal, and one in nickel-coloured metal
( I have no idea what's in it except that there is undoubtedly no gold )
have "standing on the shoulders of giants" incised on the milled edge.
Funny how they like to mint coins in fake gold and silver colours-
e.g. the gold-coloured 1 pound coin- it must have a deep seated
appeal to subconscious archetypes. Given that, I believe it would
not be that difficult to introduce the public to the idea of
gold and silver coinage with intrinsic value, political acquiescence
willing. Unfortunately political acquiescence is a rare animal, at
least in the Russian central bank, which has obstructed Russian
banks' proposals to issue gold coins as an alternative to the dollar
for storage of value. And the gold dinar seems destined to remain
associated mainly with the Moslem community, I can't see it gaining
wider acceptance... hmmm, I wonder if that has anything to do with
the war on Islamic Terrorists? Getting back to the Shoulders of
Giants, it appears that Newton may have been quoting a 12th century
French scholar called Bernard of Chartres, as documented by John of

"We are as dwarfs mounted on the shoulders of giants, so that we
can see more and further than they: yet not by virtue of the
keenness of our eyesight, nor through the tallness of our stature,
but because we are raised and borne aloft upon that giant mass."

Incidentally some people have reported that these 2 pound coins can
come apart into a smaller disk and a ring- a kind of 2 for 1 split,
except that you don't get a replacement unless you present both pieces
at the bank.

Related Articles:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:31 - ID#288295)

I used to own Caledonia, but haven't followed it in a long time. However, they do have a web site:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:35 - ID#350179)
I'm sure this has already been figured into Abbey C's rosy picture.

Bankers Trust ( NYSE: BT ) on Tuesday disclosed that it has experienced $350 million of pretax trading losses in the third quarter, largely because of the write down of its Russian securities portfolio. The result will be a net loss for the quarter, rather than the previously anticipated earnings of $2.16 per share. Later the same day, Citicorp ( NYSE: CCI ) said third-quarter earnings would be reduced by $200 million, after taxes, because of Russia-related losses. These announcements came on the heels of the Aug. 7 announcement by Republic New York ( NYSE: RNB ) that the quarter's earnings would be completely erased by $100 million of trading losses.

Russia Woes Rock Major U.S. Banks

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:37 - ID#43349)
Hey Toto! Are we still in Kansas?
Remember the long weeks of watching gold go up and down with the yen? Well, is it my imagination or has gold found a new dancing partner?

The DOW tanks, gold tanks. The DOW retraces, gold retraces. The DOW slides a little, gold slides a little.

So what do gold and the DOW have in common?

They are both bought and sold with dollars.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:39 - ID#25257)
The Refiner's Fire
Yes Mr. Jones, that 24 karat comes forth slowly and with much dross. But He who has promised is true and worthy of much praise and glory--"BMG will stand at 14 before this market is over."

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:46 - ID#242325)
Now they tell us
An article on page C19 of today's WSJ says the following


Any comments OLDMAN:


(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:46 - ID#242325)
Now they tell us
An article on page C19 of today's WSJ says the following


Any comments OLDMAN:


(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:46 - ID#242325)
Now they tell us
An article on page C19 of today's WSJ says the following


Any comments OLDMAN:


Charles Keeling
(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:49 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: Was Tuesday Intervention????
have a group of tennis playing buddies who play the markets, but they
follow all the other sheep who play the Mutual Fund game.

I have been telling them about the various market interventions on the
part of the Fed. I have also told them that a "Plunge Protection Team"
exists that takes direct action to stop a potential market correction by
purchasing S & P 500 Futures on the Globex.

I told them that Clinton himself was on the phone from Air Force 1
to the Secretary of the Treasury following Mondays 512 point plunge.
It was reported by the news media that WJC talked to the Treasury
Department on several occasions while en route to Moscow, and
shortly thereafter. The topic was the 512 point drop in the DOW.

Tuesday AM before the market opened, the S& P 500 was limit up.

I say that this was the action of the Fed and the PPT. My friends
say: Nah !!! Just bargain hunters.

I need help guys: How can I prove that the Feds & the PPT
intervened, and purchased S & P 500 Futures early Tuesday AM?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:50 - ID#317193)
Perhaps YOUR time is also spent more productively discussing gold and not RJ. Let it go. You gave him enough ammunition before, time to call a halt. Be above all this.

Besides, RJ is very good on calling gold's direction...short term especially so. Don't have to like his words to listen to some good calls. Some not so good, too. Then again, nobody is perfect.

Gold...short term tomorrow tells a tale...I expect gold down early and will wait to see if a positive gain is in by the close. Never know, it might bolt all day or dump all day but seems that the short covering may be over for a while unless a bigger move comes through.

Long term we wait. Maybe til after the first of the year...depends on if a currency crisis really hits the US$.

Any cogent THOUGHTS?


(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:52 - ID#288186)
There were no changes for Comex Gold, but Silver stats are worth noting:
43,532,564 622,390 0 622,390 0 44,154,954
35,148,850 0 429,480 -429,480 0 34,719,370
78,681,414 622,390 429,480 192,910 0 78,874,324
As you can see, there were 622,390 oz's added ( They were to registered! ) and 429,480 oz's withdrawn ( from eligible! ) . The totals for Comex Silver
show 192,910 oz's added to Totals.

To the casual observer, glancing at Comex Warehouse totals, they would
assume that there is 192,910 more oz's "available" ( eligible ) .

BUT! Remember that the 429,480 oz's were removed from ELIGIBLE SILVER!
This means that there are only 34.7 million oz's in total eligible Silver!

Unfortunately, I don't have the time to look back in history, but it seems that both registered and eligible Silver totals remained neck and
neck. Now look. The gap has been continually widening! We have roughly
44.1 million oz's in registered totals and 34.7 million oz's in eligible
totals. Hmmmmmm. I don't know how significant this is yet, but IMO, it's
worth noting!! See ya, BBML Foxman

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:52 - ID#25171)
I will bet a bottle of BORDEAUX wine
with the first one who takes the other side of the fact that I think that the IMF won't sell its GOLD ( good hedge for a gold holder but me prefer the TEXAS hedge i.e. long call long cash )
The FRENCH , the ITALIANS and the GERMANS ( as long as KOHL is chancelor anyway ) won't allow it and they have enough shares to stop it as we saw last year.
Even if you take the RUSSIAN factor into account , they still won't let it go.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 16:56 - ID#342376)
@ OLD GOLD and hepcat
Do you think we should take GoGold's ( hepcat ) prediction of $2 for 2 days so literally? I wish he'd post what he thinks now. You out there hepcat? We had two decent days in a row. Sentiment seems to be changing rapidly for gold. Maybe the turn is here.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:06 - ID#347457)
@HighRise (Where else ONE day return 14+%)
High Rise, not to spoil your gains, however

Symbol -- Closing -- Gain --52 weeks high

ELNK -- 33  -- 24.3% -- 46 1/4

OTEXF -- 13  -- 21.3% -- 23 

XCIT -- 33  -- 15.4% -- 55 

These high tech stock are trading at 70-80% of their 52 weeks high ( BGO trades at 17% of 52 weeks high ) and on much higher volume than BGO. Yes, you can say that there is higher growth potential in BGO, however, i hope you did nopt ride it down on that 85% decline.

And you can bet that money will flow back to high tech.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:12 - ID#373284)
Charles Keeling_A, Namaste' I believe that sharefin has exactly what you are
looking for something later this evening...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:15 - ID#39862)
I think that I will rush out and get a Green Card.........

I think me not..............

Looks like the place is falling apart .........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:15 - ID#39862)
I think that I will rush out and get a Green Card.........

I think me not..............

Looks like the place is falling apart .........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:16 - ID#286249)
Trading bands for the Euro, the Dem, the Yen, the USD-all pegged to POG?
Certainly appears so...

Thus far ( 1997, Jan through Jun ) the data shows the following:

Monthly Averages, POG in each currency, followed by the 3P POG in each currency.
Averages for JAN ( 97 ) : Euro-292.975 ( 355.623 )
DEM---588.875 ( 355.485 )
Yen-41821.7 ( 355.710 )
AVERAGE POG in USD for January: 355.403

This is not a one-off for January; each succeeding month, regardless of the apparent swings in currency or gold price, tracks out as neatly.

The variance for the six months ( i.e., the variance between each currency's 3P POG and the USD POG is as follows based on six months of quotes, seven days a week, Jan 1 through Jun 30 ) :

Variance-Xeu: -0.0841
Dem: -0.0880
: -0.0876

At the present time, there is a bit of a problem with the XEU, however.
They can't keep the dollar up against the ECU/Euro.. Working to ascertain how they mean to resolve this... {:- )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:16 - ID#39862)
I think that I will rush out and get a Green Card.........

I think me not..............

Looks like the place is falling apart .........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:17 - ID#280339)
Greenspam will ease & PMs will rocket
We haven't completed the first wave down yet. This drop so far mirrors the Nikkei's 1990 drop to a T. This first wave will accelerates downward shortly ( next week? ) .

During the bull market one of the most reliable signals was that a large selloff would end with a candlestick hammer formation. A strong rally would follow after volatility calmed down.

Expiration Friday was the hammer signal. It failed miserably last week. When a reliable signal fails reverse and don't look back. This confirms the markets incredible weakness.

Once the market heads down again AG will ease. That will be the signal for PM's to start their rally. Because of the mountain of shorts this rally will be volcanic.

Our time is coming. I hope my business survives the carnage.

Got Gold!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:19 - ID#39862)
"Plunge Protection Team..... rigging of Markets.......

Is this legal in the USA ?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:21 - ID#28861)
CRB Index

Gold rose on continued short-covering following Tuesday's impressive
$3.30 gain, with aggressive buying from a US commission house noted.

"A lot of people were short at $288 and $290, and a lot of people
decided to take profit here to make up for losses in other parts of the
market over the past week," said one dealer. "There were massive shorts out there, and I understand that there were new shorts put on the market, so maybe someone is just trying to push it," she said.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:30 - ID#39862)

Oh, and by the way.......

The Europeans are holding 200 of Russia's 520 metric tonnes of GOLD..... for safe keeping !!!!!

Looks like Russia at some point will have to do "a" South Korea.... George Soros where are you !!!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:38 - ID#43349)
One VERY signifcant thing is that there is a very lrge short overhang in silver. Once the eligible silver is gone, the price the shorts must pay to cover will be dictated by the registered owners of what is left. Do you think they will be benevolent dictators?

Of course, even before that point is reached the point will be reached that the total short postition is larger than the available eligible, in which case an interesting game of musical chairs begins.

Even now, the shorts are in jeopardy of someone with a lot of cash on hand, say by having sold all his zero cupon bonds, coming in and buying enough of the eligible to set the ball rolling...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:40 - ID#373284)
an excellent article on the PPT if none of you have seen it...Namaste'...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:40 - ID#39862)
Whisperinglow.... Caledonian Mining

Sounds a "wee" bit Scottish to me ?!

Och aye the nooooooooooooooo.........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:42 - ID#39862)

My dear chap, you are twenty minutes late.....

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:42 - ID#43349)
One other thing strikes me. There would be a good deal of money to be made on the short side by selling short the stock of certain brokerage houses that have a large large large short interest exposure to silver should the price rise rapidly. A certain poetic justice.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:44 - ID#39862)
tolerant..... PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM.......

I the Land of the Free Market.....the USA......

IS THE PPT LEGAL ??!!??!!??!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:45 - ID#30126)
Charles Keeling @ 16:49
What you are asking for is the keeper of paper trails to leave a paper trail. If you ever find any hard evidence, you shall surely become famous and possibly, quite cold, as in assuming room temperature. :- )

PH in LA
(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:46 - ID#225408)
SDRer: Affirmative

Since August 26, the dollar has lost 5 Spanish pesetas/dollar, in line with what you note re: Euro. Could this be the beginning of something? The peseta ( 148.41 today ) has not been this high since mid-February, when I started keeping records. The dollar has been as high as 157 at times since then.

During the Barcelona Olympics the peseta was as high as 98 pesetas/dollar so there is still plenty of room to go.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:48 - ID#185406)
Miro, Sherafin, high rise. Internet stocks
Acouple of points: The average trade size in techs and internets has been declining through the past two days. The NDX, IIX and other high tech indexes and cybertulip stocks have gone from oversold on Tuesdat morning to severely overbought today at noon. They have yet to break their bull market support line. This is not the case for the rest of the market, namely the DOW, SP500 and definitely the Russel. All non-techs show a severe break from the late bull market pattern ( has held up since 1995 ) . The transports show a break from the bull market altogether. The utilities are fell out of their pattern as well. Since the techs are MORE cyclical than anything outside engineering firms, the tech stock consumer ( I don't know them to be investors ) , will stand in shock as the large investors will take their profits. He will then procede to sell into the downdraft.

Considering the high individual investor and daytrader involvement in the virtual value stocks ( techs and internets ) , and the kind of behavior I've seen during the fall, that the big investors and mutual funds will dump on them in the near future. I believe that the daytraders and small individual investors will be left holding the bag within two weeks. The snapback in these issues was so severe, that the momentum indicators were equaly strong for the upside these past two days, as they were to the donside before. This is probably the result of the small investor's blowing all their stash on the internets and pop techs.

Gianni Dioro__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:51 - ID#384350)
Keeling PPT, Try and Prove it
If you could prove it, then there would be a lot of class action suits. They won't admit it. However there appears to be blatant manipulation of the stock market, especially through futures trading. The inaction of the SEC makes me believe they are either involved in the scheme or they are told to look the other way.

Also, it is the job of the IMF to loot the countries where they tread. They are in the business of getting ( stealing ) the gold out of countries. They don't care to sell the gold that they have taken, at least not to common folk.

I found a good inexpensive Spanish wine from Torres called "Sangre de Toro", so I guess I have been drinking the blood of the bull.

Speaking of Bull, King Klinton is coming round these parts starting tomorrow. My friend Ger wants to go up to Ballybunion with a rocket-launcher and spoil his golf match. Wishful thinking.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:53 - ID#266105)

vertebraes #23 & 24

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:55 - ID#373284)
Haggis_A, Namaste' been having the devil of the time getting on per
your question I think the miserable scu_bags are breaking the law and essentially raping the Constitution...just one more example of a bunch of bureaucrats trying to make things work when their failed policies are crumbling around them...they are a bunch of counterfeiting petty thieves and I think each and everyone of them should stand trial and be sentenced like the no good rats they are...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:55 - ID#39862)
Oh dear...... US$ 2 TRILLION in LOSES.............

Pop goes the "Piggy Bank".....

Where did that Weazel go ....... ????

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:59 - ID#396249)
Haggis...a little history the Economic Stabilization Fund was set up in 1933 with funds from Gold
Confiscation was set up as a slush fund for the sole purpose of supporting the Dollar in time of is not neccesary to get Congressional approval to spend it all it takes is for the President and Treasury Head Rubin to agree....this fund was used to bail out Mexico in one knows how much they have best guess is between 65 and 80 Billion...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:59 - ID#229207)
Fear turns to terror tomorrow?
The drop we saw in the final minutes today presages dark days ahead. Such a weak rally out of huge drop, didn't even last two days. Should have been stronger and longer. It's margin call day tomorrow and I smell something burning. I put money on it.

Gollum, if you're flying tomorrow, you can take out the glider. No engines needed. Gravity and air resistance is all you'll need to get it going forward once it's dropped off at altitude. You might want to take up that special glider with the wings that pop off. And parachutes.
Aw, sh*t. I don't know why I'm joking about it. This is not going to be amusing. I have a crummy feeling in my stomach. Hmph.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 17:59 - ID#294232)
The Sentiment Towards Gold Is Changing...
Over the last week gold has become a topic of conversation as is quietly being tied to a deflationary problem. When I hear comments from major brokerage houses saying THAT THE WAR ON GOLD HAS BEEN TAKEN TOO FAR I KNOW THAT THE TREND IS REVERSING.... This type of thinking leads me to believe that a sharp rise in the pog will dampen fears of a deflationary depression.... which is just what the Dow needs. Would it not be ironic that Gold saves the day in the minds of men and women......

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:01 - ID#39862)
tolerant1 (Haggis_A, Namaste' been having the devil of the time getting on per)

Could the individual members of the PPT be sued for any incurred losses, by both private and Corporate interests.......

It would appear to me, being a simple Scotsman, that the "bhouys" in the PPT would appear to have their BALLS HANGING OUT ?!

A "simple" cases of....when you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow..........

Now who said that again... Clinton, no balls.....LBJ, all the way !!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:02 - ID#187109)
@ GolF...not gold


WY ( $ )


(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:03 - ID#282164)

Mr. Mick
(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:05 - ID#345321)
Squirrel, Retired Soldier, Mozel, General...check this site out......................

The gun that will replace the M-16.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:06 - ID#266105)
@greenstone gold

2T, not chump change, back into the aether from whence
it sprang.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:06 - ID#269128)
PPT repost of Petronius...
Electronic Telegraoh article ( now no longer on the website..oooppps )

IT is known as the "plunge protection team", an emergency
council of America's top financial officials that operates
with its own special staff in the shadows of the US Treasury.

Since the stock market crash of October 1987, the group has
been drawing up contingency plans for the next market
meltdown. Its moment may have come. The purpose of the
group, known officially as the Working Group on Financial
Markets, is to avoid repeating the near-catastrophe of Oct
19, 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell 22.6 per cent in a
single day, and then followed with a nosedive the next

At that time, the US financial authorities had no response
mechanism in place. The Federal Reserve managed to
prevent a total breakdown in the payment and settlement
system by injecting huge amounts of liquidity into the
banking system, but it was an alarmingly close-run affair.
Afterwards, it was agreed that the US government needed
something better than last-minute improvisation.

The team is led by the US Treasury Secretary, Robert
Rubin. As the crisis gathered pace last week, Mr Rubin was
fishing in Alaska but he remained in constant touch with the
other key players on a specially equipped cellular phone. He
is back at his desk this week monitoring the crisis.

The permanent members include the chairman of the
Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, and the heads of the
Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission.

Decisions are made in conjunction with the National
Economic Council at the White House, and the powerful
governor of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. They have
each other's telephone numbers at all times and are plugged
into a sophisticated "market surveillance" system that helps
them to anticipate trouble. It works in close alliance with the
British financial authorities.

Each agency has a confidential crisis plan. At the SEC, this
is known as the Red Book, or more properly, the Executive
Directory for Market Contingencies. The team relies on
"circuit breakers" to ensure an orderly fall in the markets,
with intermittent halts in trading. It can extend open lines of
credit, inject money into the system and cut interest rates.

There is also speculation that it might intervene directly in
the stock market, buying shares and futures contracts to prop
up the indexes in the same way that the Hong Kong
government has been doing, with mixed success, in recent

A few analysts believe that this form of market rigging is
already going on in America, quietly, using a $40 billion
( 24 billion ) slush fund, known as the Exchange
Stabilisation Fund, under the direct control of the Treasury
Secretary. It was this fund that was used to bail out Mexico
in 1995 when the US Congress was refusing to appropriate
enough money.

But most analysts believe that the Dow Jones index will
have to fall further before there is any attempt to support it
with a cut in interest rates, let alone with direct stock
purchases. The US economy is still showing signs of
strength, with unemployment at 30-year lows.

The great unknown is the psychological "wealth effect" of
the recent falls. More than 23 per cent of US household
wealth is in financial assets, compared to only 10 per cent in
1990. Half of all American adults own shares, and many
jumped into the market during the rampant "bull run" of the
last three years. So far, they seem to be taking it calmly.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:10 - ID#43349)
Buddy, can you spare a dime?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:12 - ID#373284)
Haggis_A, Namaste' One would think so right...Clintler is a dirtbag plain and simple
I am sure many things will change with the Starr report...we will see if Starr has his act together...he has destroyed Clintler from a legal standpoint to this point...and the American people are starting to see through all of his bulls_it...

Class action suit...I would need some deep pockets...lawyers need to dress better and eat better than their clients...apparently their copy machine costs more to run than the average business man...

And the Republicans I am sure would love to use the same tools to keep the sheeple happy...only time will tell...

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:12 - ID#294232)
Yen back over 1.38.....
China will begin screaming again tonight as the Yen loses ground again today. The strength of the USD is crippling the World and it will only be a matter of time before a full fledged assault is launched against the dollar..... Dines spoke sometime ago and stated that an indicator for timing on a gold breakout would be when the currency wars begin. What about it Mr. Dines is that time here or do we need to hear screaming first!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:22 - ID#287114)
Why Gringo Starr always smiling?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:26 - ID#373284)
skinny, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...cause he has a little empty jar in his pocket
and he knows that its sole purpose for existence is to house Clintlers testicles...ariba...ariba...bobbit...ah ha..........

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:28 - ID#269128)
tolerant....I wonder if some big banks getting burnt by
the PPT. Notice this Telegraph article has the pertinent links as the CFTC ( Commodities Futures Trading Commission ) and FRB ( Federal Reserve Board ) actions web pages.

I can imagine some large banks ( British ) may have got burnt big shorting the DOW and Dollar when the PPT did it's tricks last Oct. and again Monday. Before they just ride the bull but now Goldman et al may have pissed off one to many comrades......Like dogs in a pack when one gets too big simultaneously all the others will turn on it at slightest hint of weakness.....DOW/dollar looked weak on Monday for the first time in five years. The "free markets" can be of the jungle.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:28 - ID#187109)
TOL#1.....and a hearty
ss AGULP to ya! ...from hot and steamy Calif......ohmy! ...and Puff, pero claro...

clone - who are you dude? AGULP to ya too!

StudioR - Viva Cuba Lbre G&P to ya. How was the recording sesh...any smokemobiles in the distance? .....riders nigh, on the storm? ( huh ) ( ? ) ...

....I am truly feeling the DAWG days of Summer. 'Tis damn HOT over here. thinks we're havin a heat wave......and So. Cal is boinin' up...I still haven't seen any Eclipses though......and I'm countin on seein one.........dadburnit!

Here leeezerd leeezerd! the backyard for cocktails.......... ( whew! ) ........ ( sweat dripping ) ............... ( shirts and skirts off ) .............. ( sipping newkybrown ) ........... ( yum-yum ) .............. ( gettin jiggy with gold coinage ) ................. ( ohmy ) ...


buygold. live for kooookooooobooooraaaas.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:36 - ID#269128)
Gollum...i like it...
short the shorts! that would be sweet revenge....
hmmm I wonder who the biggest gold shorter is?
Union Bank of Switzerland....very, very quiet lately...probably reversed.

Citicorp....sheeps bank
ChaseMan....pigs bank
JPMorgan....bear? bank
Goldman....bulls bank ( gold lion in sheeps clothing perhaps )

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:36 - ID#377196)
Gold Thoughts
It is interesting that the press is now saying that the war
on gold has been carried too far. It is admitting that the war
Sometimes I get on the bandwagon that everything is being
manipulated by the "powers that be". But even if this is true
the only way "manipulation" can take place is by taking a position
in a market.
I am sure that this happens, but more likely right now in the
stockmarket, the dipsters are the ones buying THINKING that the PPT
will save them.
Thinking that the central banks were going to sell their gold
allowed the hedge funds, mines to be the manipulators. And why not?
Munk made money. The majors can buy the juniors cheaply now.

In the end it comes down to the fact that postions must be unwound
for anyone to make money. If you or I don't sell a stock we can
make the round trip. So can Munk and he knows this. NEM covered its
shorts a while back.

Manipulation doesn't work but for a short period of time. If the
people were not so much in love with paper they could buy gold and
the price would rise because there is not enough gold in the world
to satisfy the demand of all the dollars out there.

Manipulation leads to volatility. Whe have seen the down side of
this position taking. Soon, 4 to 6 weeks, we will see the upside.
It will be just as dramatic. Buying more, and forcing oneself to do so
even when one has lost a lot, is the right way to invest. Gold stocks
that is not the stock market.

But I would buy only producers. And a few good juniors. I need
to buy more physical. Just enough to cover an emergency.

Who cares what the PPT does. In the end the Dow is going to get
were it is going and Gold will get there too. One lower and the other

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:37 - ID#373284)
EB, Namaste' and a giant gulp back at ya...don't burn up out there...I figured
it was mandatory to have your own MMT...Margarita Mixing you could sit while being fanned by naked Egyptian woman as your drinks were mixed for ya...I guess all that stuff I hear about California ain't all true huh...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:38 - ID#290456)

I was just surfing a site called

where I found a prediction for a Times Square, NYC bombing at 8:15 p.m. on Sept 13th, 50-100 casualties.

Be elsewhere.

Note that this is also the week in September numerous sources have indicated for a market crash. Stranger coincidences have been known to happen.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:42 - ID#284336)
$ standard
To day, the world uses the $ as standard and world reserved currency. The $ without specie has reached crisis proportion. Reserves are for a 'rainy day' and money is a mean of exchange and a store of value. Due to historical event, the 'dirty' float prevails and 'risk management' as a tool for trade and investment has become impossible. I like to say a few things and ask questions concerning the Asian contagion.

In light of the economic, financial and monetary morass enveloping the entire globe, few can argue that the world is not entering a conceivably LONG PERIOD OF DEPRESSION sadly reminiscent of 1929 and aftermathquote vronsky, 1 September 1998.

When currencies are attacked, governments barely are able to maintain their par values through massive government support by using their US dollar reserves to purchase their own currencies. Obviously, there US dollar reserves are finite - and once they get close to the bottom of the barrel, their currencies will be suffer severe devaluation. The price and relative value changes constantly. This is not right. At present, devaluation is defined as FX rate changes and there will be no end to them.

Furthermore, as their economy teeters on collapse, they are bail out using $ loans from the IMF. We have to remember that $ outside the US are still obligations of the US. The usurious nature of the transactions is cause for concern. Whole nations become slaves to the bankers. Further, IMF itself is close to being without means.

My question is knowing the above, can we at the onset of the crisis just let it go, beginning first with Thailand,the Tomyum effect? I like to use reserves solely for a "rainy" day but at the back of my head I am trouble by the fact that the $ is the debts obligation of the US and they grow on trees.

Hegemony defined: she is well ! I am WELL!

Thanks you.

John B__A
(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:43 - ID#77133)
Donald and Carl
Don't know if you all have given up on gold but i do miss the analysis on the XAU/POG ratio and such. The ratio seems to be in bullish territory finally but I don't recall the historical numbers that both of you are familiar with. Thanks,

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:45 - ID#288115)
Just heard on the tube the Senate has approved
18 billion for IMF to give to Russia.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:55 - ID#373284)
moa_A, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...all governments run a minimum of two sets of
books...probably more...I am sure every once in a while somebody gets burnt...but they stay in touch with their crony buddies in government... the single biggest problem the entire planet is having is the US$ and of course the policies of those sc_mbags at the IMF who impose devastating conditions on the counterfeit money they get from the US and lend out which makes the people in the country suffer even more hardships... of course the criminals running the country are fat and happy...but the people suffer horribly...

I believe that the fellow working with the Asians is Dr. Hanke ( spelling? ) as he was the cornerstone who recommended the currency board as a method to stabalize currencies in the region...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:57 - ID#187109)
Ya got it ALL right.......'ceptin for the wimmins ain't 'gyptians.......they are just plain Beautiful! ALL colors shapes and sizes...... ( uh huh ) .....and I minored in 'garitas during school Daze.........nobody mixes 'em like mixologist...............hell we don't even need 'lectricity. .....Hmmmmmmmm, I guess I AM WhyTwoKay compliant.......damned that EBrilliance..........pass the 'Quila.....

shakin', not stirred.....

away...from kitco


(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:59 - ID#269128)
Deflation a last more than 3 years...

Now, now bankers of the world what asset best protects against deflation? Reese-Mogg banking 101.

Hep...your usury ranting has a hollow ring...stick to what you believe in, i.e. nothing.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 18:59 - ID#377196)
I know you think that the Starr report is going to be some big
deal. But I doubt it. We will never get to see the report.

There is a law that exists in all organizations. That law states
that if one want to live off the organization one cannot kill the
organization. If all the dead bodies around Clinton are for real more
that Clinton is at stake here. The government is at risk.

Starr will take no chances with that. That is why he has confined
everything to sex with Monica, etc. But drug running and murder
by the government? No way, Jose. The Government will be protected at
all costs. Starr knows he would be committing suicide to "uncover"
all the things Clinton ( and the government ) have been involved in.

This is a Circus to amuse the people.

I wish I were wrong but I don't think so.

Just get that photo of your dog and the IMF chief on Newsweek.
Forget Starr. Why hope for the impossible when you yourself can
create history!!!!!!

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:00 - ID#266105)
Carlson Bros.-- my kind of argument

EB-- yup, brewski kinda day. I see a branch moving across
the pond of it's own volition so-- swing around, open the door
( clap! ) my hands and ( SLAP! ) that ol' beaver ripples from shore
to shore. I like that.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:02 - ID#43460)
Always good for yucks!
The US Debt Clock is like getting your funny bone two guys in pinstriped suits with a piece of iron pipe that is.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:06 - ID#290172)
Clarifications-- "3P POG"

When research on the Euro made it seem probable that effort would be made to align the USD:Euro, I began to look at the crosses of the tri-polar world.

I sought a tool that would give me a snapshot not seen by the casual observer. The Law of One Price proved to be a viable view-finder.

I DID NOT expect to see the POG in XEU, DM, Yen, USD get establish a consistent pattern. Tracking the first couple of months of data, I was -quite frankly-astonished that they ALL lined up with the POG/USD. But they do.

This is the simple little tool. If you subscribe to the Economist, you are probably familiar with it. I'm sure the CBs are utilizing a VERY high-powered version of this, but as John Disney has said of his Goldonmics Tool-this too, is good enough for Goldbugs. ( Incidently, I use JohnDisney's version as another reality check. It tracks pretty well too!


a two-country world ( Germany and U.S. ) with just one tradable commodity -- a personal computer
no significant transportation costs, no tariffs or other trade barriers
cost of computer in Germany is 1500DM and the exchange rate is $.80/1DM
POG ( 554 ) in DEM and the exchange rate .56/1DM
How much should the computer sell for in the U.S.?
( 554 ) ( .56/1DM ) =
Solution: ( 1500DM ) ( $.80/1DM ) = $1200

To generalize, from this one example, let GP = German Price, AP = American Price and let LOOP denote "Law Of One Price":
( GP ) ( VODM ) = AP
VODM = AP/GP Law of One Price

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:06 - ID#347235)
Mr. Mick
From the looks of it it looks like a Mattel toy just like the M-16,I would much rather have an M1 Garand, I could reach out and touch at 800 yards routinely with 30/06 rounds much better than 5.56. I dont care for PLASTIC stocks & crap,if you need to butt stroke the head with the RIFLE not what some of our less masculine types think it works much better to have a steel plate.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:07 - ID#290172)
Trading bands for the Euro, the Dem, the Yen, the USD-all pegged to POG

Thus far ( 1997, Jan through Jun ) the data shows the following:

Monthly Averages, POG in each currency, followed by the 3P POG in each currency.
JAN: Euro-292.975 ( 355.623 )
DEM---588.875 ( 355.485 )
Yen-41821.7 ( 355.710 )
AVERAGE POG in USD for January: 355.403

This is not a one-off for January; each succeeding month, regardless of the apparent swings in currency or gold price, tracks out as neatly.

The variance for the six months ( i.e., the variance between each currency's 3P POG and the USD POG is as follows ( based on six months of quotes, seven days a week ) :

Variance-Xeu: -0.0841
Dem: -0.0880
: -0.0876

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:10 - ID#220325)
Themissinglink - I visited your website.
Excellent workmanship, the jewellery is exquisite. You are talented indeed. I can never understand how so-called artists can put together tractor wheels and hang them in a museum and call it art. In the meanwhile true artists such as yourself are unrecognised????

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:11 - ID#377196)
IMF loans to Russia
ANYTHING, and fast, to keep Russia from going on a gold standard.

It is clear that the US government is now terrified of any country
who might even think of getting rid of the bankers.

Only the people can take the future in there hands by refusing
the government paper. It will not happen until the Dow has lost 90%
of its value and is yielding 9%. That is where it is headed. The year?
I believe 2002 to 2003.

Until then, gold and cash. And gold stocks.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:11 - ID#290172)
Deals within deals within deals...
OK, explain to me again how the dollar's value is reflected in another currency's price of gold.

What strikes one as rather remarkable about this, is the fact that Japan's oil purchases are now ( and have been for over 18 months ) largely denominated in Yen! Convenient yes? More particularly when the contracts for oil are held by gold adherents.

We are watching the careful calibration for a 'tri-polar' currency world. One can not view the collected data, and come to any other conclusion. The de facto standard of measurement is gold. It is being used with quiet

On Tuesday, May 13, 1997: AU: was 41,513.1

USD: = 0.008394, :USD=119.1300 ~ Yen worth more against the USD, right?
POG:USD was 348.1672
PPP: was 348.1672

 POG 41478.1

On Sat 8/15/98: AU: was 41478.1

USD: : = 0.006838, ::USD = 146.250 ~ Yen worth less against the USD, right?

POG:USD was 283.850
PPP: was 283.866
 POG 41513.1

Thus far, eight months of collected data, the PPP of the currencies for POG has held so firmly, so neatly, that one can only browse the spreadsheet and see it clearly. And there can be NO DOUBT that gold is the tool they are using!

Notes on the margin-
1 ) Lest we forget-EU has, in place, authorities to institute 'exchange controls'and the French really want to use them!
2 ) One reads a great deal in the financial-regulatory world about "monitoring currency exchanges" and assuring "price stability". If one takes the CBs at their word, how do they "monitor"? What means have they in place to assure "price stability"? WHAT DO THEY MEASURE PRICES AGAINST?

3 ) The evidence is accumulating; it is clear and convincing: they use gold.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:12 - ID#187109)
2B or not....I too....
enjoy a rippling beaver ;- )
away...... ( hmmmmmm ) ...

Charles Keeling
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:19 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene. RE: PPT. Reality or Myth?
Thanks a million for the replies. I am quickly
reading all of them, and doing a copy & paste to
all om my dis believing tennis buddies.

Tolerant 1 I am back. Thanks

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:20 - ID#187109)
that is some fine stuff. AGULP to ya. I printed it and it's goin' on the wall... soak it up.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:20 - ID#373284)
Gold Dancer, Namaste' One reason I feel strongly that the Starr report will make its
way to the public is that once the media gets a hold of it the Republicans can all act like born again do-gooders...Clintler will boil in his own broth...and I totally disagree...this is not about Mouthica...nope...abuse of power, perjury and high treason...but we shall see what we shall see...

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:26 - ID#384350)
IMF Contribution
If/when those $18 Billion get released, it should have a negative impact on the Dollar.

Also as to the Euro and Y2K, the Euro will only exist in digital/checkbook money until 2002.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:27 - ID#93241)
Gold Dancer 18:59
I think you're right. Very few will lay their eyes upon Starr's report. You left out one thing in your analysis: the Arkansas Armtwist. Clinton's people are getting dirt on everyone on the Hill, including staffers. A buddy of mine inside the beltway says its bizarre what's going on ( phone taps, intercepted e-mails, etc. ) .

Aragorn III
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:27 - ID#212323)
Troubling, yet so revealing...
Excerpt From Bloomberg:

...once in the euro currency on Jan. 1, Spain won't be able to
LET THE PESETA FALL [caps are mine--AIII] against other European currencies to offset
the effects of rising inflation. And with initial euro interest
rates expected near 3.3 percent, Spain will have to restrain
prices while cutting interest rates, which could fuel more
spending and thus more inflation. The Spanish Central Bank is
expected to cut its 4.25-percent benchmark rate later this year.

"It wouldn't be as much of a problem if we weren't in the
euro because the currency could depreciate," said David Moreno,
economist at Stone & McCarthy in London. "We can't devalue,
though, so the only way to compete with other European countries
is by keeping prices under control."
Excerpt from Reuters:

- Colombia bowed to pressure on its peso currency Wednesday, announcing
a de facto devaluation that analysts called the first significant change
in any Latin American country's exchange rate policy since Asia's
financial turmoil erupted last year.

The surprise move, which was expected to STEP UP PRESSURE [emphasis added] on
neighbouring Venezuela and Ecuador to devalue their own beleaguered
currencies, was announced by the Colombian central bank after an
emergency policy meeting late Tuesday night.

Spelling out the new policy's impact on the peso for the coming months,
the central bank said Wednesday afternoon that it would allow the peso
to drop by a maximum of 26.6 percent against the dollar in calendar
1998, compared to a previous maximum of 16 percent.

Shouldn't the matter-of-fact manner in which these currency devaluations are bandied about ( whether theoretically for Spain, Venezuela and Ecuador, or actually by Columbia ) be troubling to the minds who might offer a notion that gold is not the ultimate store of value?
Arguements can be made either direction, but this is always done with 20/20 hindsight on history. You can choose your dates and your kind of paper for the analysis. This is a fine exercise. But the cold reality is that individuals worldwide, due to circumstances of geography and policy, do not have the same lattitude to select their nationality of paper and time frame.

Gold wins, hands down, for any given citizen of the world throughout the span of history with very few ( and temporary ) exceptions. How would YOU choose to store your wealth if you were to be in a location for several weeksor months that would not allow you ANY knowledge of the markets nor any management of your assets? What will you be ASSURED of finding upon your return?

Paper punishes the unsavvy saver, world-wide. These matter-of-fact changes in government policy can erase the product of your youthful labors not only insidiously, but overnight. The day will come when people will know money for what it isn't, and for what it is. Paper is only paper. A national devaluation of currency shows this to be true for even the most naive individuals that put supreme faith in government.
got paper?

got gold? reach into dim spaces

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:28 - ID#253153)
There is no SAFETY in utility stocks
The 15 utility index recorded a new 1998 low's today closing around 273. In the past, investors used to seek safety in utility stocks whenever the stock market fell. Lot's of money will be lost this year by investors that own utility stocks. When they raid the house of lust, even the best looking chicks will be arrested.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:28 - ID#370218) this what you found some months ago that so troubled you?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:28 - ID#26793)
@John B
I have been working on a major project and not had the time to keep up with posting. Tell me what you need; I have all the data saved. You can contact me at

Here are some numbers from this evening.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.74. The 233 day moving average is 28.36. This is the third day running with a close below the 233 day M/A. A very bad sign for the Dow in the next few days.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .184 tonight and last night.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:32 - ID#373284)
SDRer_A, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...
Ya just never cease to amaze...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:34 - ID#290172)
TYoung--No, that was regarding derivatives...
And I'm still not at liberty to say anything...
This is far less is at least a recognition of gold's place
in the economic world...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:38 - ID#370218) my posts on derivatives?...they scare me sh*tless...
You may know more than me but I doubt you have more fear.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:40 - ID#233328)
New contributor testing system.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:40 - ID#287114)

The President Herself said it is a right wing conspiracy.
And we gotta cough up 40 mil........Probably be money well spent for the entertainment. Hollywood could not compete on the price.
A chug and a gulp tu u.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:43 - ID#295111)
ABX-Barrick Gold-CLOSED AT $13.7500 0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.53
ASL-Ashanti Gold-CLOSED AT $5.9375 -0.8125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.29
BMG-Battle Mountain-CLOSED AT $3.5625 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.14
CDE-Coeur D'Alene-CLOSED AT $4.7500 0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
FCX-Freeport Mc-CLOSED AT $11.2500 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.26
GGO-Getchell Gold-CLOSED AT $9.3750 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.01
HL-Hecla Mining-CLOSED AT $3.4375 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.01
HM-Homestake Gold-CLOSED AT $9.6875 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.04
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $14.5000 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.10
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $9.1250 0.6250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.51

XAU CLOSED AT 51.72 0.39


(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:43 - ID#373284)
skinny, Namaste' and a gulp back at ya...and my message to the First Bunt
Cake is she can kiss my _ _ _...she acts so prim and proper...horsepucky!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:46 - ID#233328)

Anybody remember the Franklin National ( bank ) bailout 30 years ago? Then there was PennCentral, Chrysler, that big bank in Chicago in the early 80s ( forgot the name ) then the massive S&L bailout, then Mexico, then Asia and what next? Aren't the bailout requirements getting bigger and bigger?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:46 - ID#290172)
Tolerant1-Keeps boredom at bay, yes?

EB-I haven't had the chance to analyze this properly as yet, but it appears to me that there are some predictive tools in this

TYoung--Yes I did. You've shared several fine pieces on what is the
Black Plague of our century. For which my thanks.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:48 - ID#119358)
EBoilin' over in the Winds of Santa Ana.....
uh huh, yes, toddy-time.....a little popski....HEY! uh, make mine aaaaaaaaaaaaaa....A CUBA LIBRE!!!! Double! Pour favor. ( de nada, senor ) . Sit here baby, whatcha' drinkin? WAITER!!!!!! Get your arse over here!!!! She'll have a Sunrise, and aaaaaaa Margarita, and a shot....and aaaaaa baby, I know you from somewhere don't I????????? yes,,,santa barbara? of course. aren't you a model? oh my..... ( gulp y gawk ) ...

REcorded a chickie by da name of Jenny Labow Mon. nite....Lilith Fair tourer...pretty cool singer and plays GUITARO tambien. Tonight.....Jeff Fenholt of Jesus Christ Superstar fame ( and black sabbath ) .....hmmmmmmm? Got Religion? Need Cash? hmmmmmmmmm. On TBN all da' time...BIG PIPES. coool dude.

Me......I just drink and sweat.

A gulp....A PUFF ( daddy ) to YA!!! ( hack ) HACK!!! whew..

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:48 - ID#290281)
Which will it be!
oleman . . Wed, Sep 2, 5:36PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
rebot: its poised to go either way from right here. Glad I dont have to take a position this evening. If I were forced to bet, I'd say UP. Looks like the pullback that comes just before they snuff the bears. Alice's elliots call it a 2 wave, i think.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 2, 5:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
'Course I have an "alternate" count. It says 880 by lunchtime.: )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:49 - ID#287312)
Tell the truth now, doesn't Ken Starr look like Deputy Dog !
: )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:49 - ID#266105)
A Village Takes-- H. Clinton

EB-- les'see, before I forget, 20 pieces@34 1/2" to go
across the fireplace. Back to the tablesaw.

tol1-- like BillnOr sez...1800 really is the best.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:51 - ID#344225)
@ Sharefin RE: Tolerant1
Tolerant1 said that you may have something for me
on the PPT.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:51 - ID#372235)
Tantalus @ XAU Today

Unfortunately, I have a position ( and added to it today ) in one of the losers ( ASL ) . Sigh.

Mr. Mick
(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:54 - ID#345321)
Retired has to respect the Garand.............
Just thought you'd like to know the latest technological developments. Some guy on CNBC said that ATK would be a good company to invest in, as they have government contracts, etc. etc. etc.
They will probably make alot of money in the near future.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:54 - ID#45173)
Does Starr have to smile like a dork every time he sees a camera?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:58 - ID#372235)
Bloomberg article on Clinton, Zyuganov differences

Check out

Bloomberg Page One
Wed, 2 Sep 1998, 7:25pm EDT

Clinton, Zyuganov See Different Cure for Russian Ills
By Laura Zelenko and Rob Urban

Moscow: U.S. President Bill Clinton warned Russia not to revert to a state-run economy even as a key opposition leader said that may be the only way to solve the country's economic woes. ``If there is no milk and no bread, the command economy and administrative leverage will be employed,'' said Gennady Zyuganov, chairman of the Communist Party, after a meeting with Clinton. ``What democracy and which human rights can you talk about under these conditions?'' Clinton's advice to President Boris Yeltsin and other Russian leaders in a day of meetings came as opposition legislators sought to rally support for their bid to block Viktor Chernomyrdin, Yeltsin's choice for prime minister. The communist-controlled lower house of parliament, the Duma, is slated to vote for a second time Friday on Chernomyrdin's nomination after voting it down Monday. Three no votes would force Yeltsin to dissolve the Duma and call new elections.

Zyuganov says it all.

``If there is no milk and no bread, ... what democracy and which human rights can you talk about under these conditions?''

(Wed Sep 02 1998 19:59 - ID#253246)
fleckenstein ******long version on gold tonight

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:01 - ID#45173)
And just as the global bailout brigade's needs and the stakes increase, the political resistance increases right along with it. How long did it take for the US to come up with a measily $18B for the IMF to "rescue" Russia?

Thing is, the US economy is growing at the slower pace in the past decade than in the previous three, contrary to mumbo jumbo about productivity increases from technology. This make it harder to suck money out of the general population to run the machine.

Seems we have an impedence mismatch, an overload, and a short circuit.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:05 - ID#119358)
please continue to do the thinking for both of us. It works better this way. gracias ( de nada ) G&P to YA!!! ;^ ) ~

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:05 - ID#45173)
Japanese not happy about the Chinese Premier's statement today
about Yuan devaluation policy as "flexible."

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:10PM 14296.00 -80.62 -0.56%

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:06 - ID#187109)
SDRer.............ask the stoopid question....
I was gonna ask what it all meant but I figured if I looked at it long enough I wouldn't have to ask and could use it as an 'arrow' in my quiver....JD always says...."it's better when you do it yourself"..........uh huh...

some kind of indication.......hmmmmmmm.......if you will.....can you print charts??? Give it to sharefin....he can do it.........he can do anything..........

away ( ! ) the spreadsheet



Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:09 - ID#384350)
EJ, Subliminal Perceptions
When I have traveled in the past few months I have watched CNN and I noticed that when I saw Ken Starr on the news I would subconsciously start growling, GRRRRRRR, just like in that book by Orwell.

It made me think, because I want Starr to nail Klinton just as much as the next guy.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:15 - ID#173274)
@the scene
singlion -- I have to agree with mozels 8:04 A:M posting. Putting gold behind the currency ( reserve ) will be the only way ANY currency can compete with the 'reserve' currency of the US. In fact, that may be the ONLY way any might survive! At this point, I dare say that it will certainly be the only way that the ruble can survive. It certainly won't/can't on IMF 'make-you-destitute' loans. No way! Games might otherwise be tried but as usual in the tooooo-much-debt scenarios, they WILL fail!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:18 - ID#424394)
PH in LA - no offense take regarding class warfare
did you notice my P.S. in the 22:51 of last night which stated:

"P.S. Help the masses to hold Gold to prevent this - no handouts - just easier access - such as a return to Gold money. Saying it can not be done is a cop out. Those who wish it to be so can do it. The rest will ignore the growing storm in silence."

P.P.S. You can even make money at it
- as Squirrel's posts attest - especially is Wed Sep 02 1998 08:32
If they can sell beanie babies, this group should be able to sell Gold.
$100 profit per ounce ain't bad!
I may even scrape up enough to buy into that deal!
( for one ounce only - or 48 coins )
Because I surely can find 36 wannabe Goldbugs at $10 each.
( the other 12 coins are for me - as my 25% profit )

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:19 - ID#295111)
Not to worry!!!!

Practicly ANY I mean ANY gold mining stock ( even remote junior exploration stocks ) is a great buy nowadays. You won't be sorry in October November when the ECB announces Gold Lease and Gold sale retrictions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I may be off on the timing of the announcement but I know it'll happen.

You'll only wish you had bought more now.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:20 - ID#373284)
SDRer, Namaste' what you say is true...but I need to jump into the Super Mario
Brothers movie and get into the reptile world's evolution chair and have the settings put on full evolve before I can wade through that...for goodness sakes...I still need to catch up to cro-mag...yikes...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:22 - ID#375160)
Where's the news link the US has passed 18 Billion for Russia?

I don't think this info is correct? I thought that the US Senate approved ( months ago ) 18 Billion for the IMF ( not necessarily for Russia ) , but the House of Reps didn't have enough votes to pass it ( they wanted to tie anti-Abortion measures to the funding, knowing that Clinton would veto it ) .

The House doesn't have time to deal with IMF funding, they have to get ready for impeachment proceedings.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:23 - ID#119358)
@T#1 cuba libre? y tu?
gottago.......but firstly, I needed to tell ya! I could shoot N. Fidel Castro and eat a baloney.sammich@the.same.time....vaya con Dios, mi buddy. studio.r

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:25 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JP -- I'm still scrolling forward through the 'scene' here and came across your 'utility stocks' posting. I was looking at the chart earlier and they look like they can easily and simply roll off the cliff at any time. Not having a lot of experience in dealing with stocks, would that be yours or anybody elses current assessment? Thanks.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:25 - ID#295111)
ABX re-purchase of shares
I got this note from astudent this morning. He had asked ABX investor relations about it's share buyback program announced last year. Here's their answer ( it kinda shows you that ABX is in bed with CB banks in the manipulation of the POG via lease rates and collusion selling )

Thank for your email message. Barrick is weighing the various options and the stock repurchase plan is again under consideration as a result of the weakness in both the gold market and our stock price. However, given opportunities that maybe available in the current market and our commitment to the Pascua Project in Chile,
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN whether ABX will repurchase its shares under the current program.


Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:30 - ID#231112)
Is there some light at the end of the tunnel?

I have not been reading posts on the subject, so I would point out that, first, Steve Forbes on CNBC Monday night, and, now, David Malpass, in todays Wall Street Journal have both expressed a growing view that could prove dramatically bullish for gold. As I posted the other evening, Forbes strenuously argued that the Fed must recognize that golds collapse over the past year presaged the deflation that has threatened global markets. His solution? The Fed must cut rates, allowing gold to rise, permitting a measure of liquidity necessary to redeem battered currencies. Malpass should be read by everyone on this forum. He claims that what has been good for the dollar and the U.S. economy has been decidedly bad for the rest of the world. "Throughout it all, the U.S. has had no policy that would deal with the heart of the global currency problem: a strong dollar and a cycle of devaluations." Malpass insists that if the U.S. wont cut rates to allow deflated currencies some slack in paying debts, "it can state unequivocally that Washington wants the value of the dollar to be stable and will place a high priority on the responsibility. Simply changing from the current strong dollar policy to a stable dollar policy would allow gold and commodity prices to recover moderately from their current deflation-spooked levels and end the talk of world deflation."

There may be a paradigm shift here in that many observers are beginning to lay the global crisis directly at the door of American economic hegemonya selfish and greed-driven desire to protect the U.S. market at all costs. Witness the best of both worlds doctrine touted by CNBC shills and fund advisers; namely, when the global economy is strong, the U.S. market dominates; when the global economy sinks into disaster, the U.S. becomes the "place of safe refuge." How nice for us. Maybe deflationary crisis will prove the catalyst for U.S. responsibility to its much touted commitment to a global market. If so, the dollar and the dow must be willing to ante-up, and, remarkable, gold will rise to provide much needed currency stability and debt relief for nations struggling to "keep the peg."

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:31 - ID#384350)
@Nobody, IMF
I read on Bloomberg today that the Senate approved $18 Billion. I assume it hadn't passed the house. True, it wouldn't be earmarked for Russia, but Russia sure seems like it's wreaking havoc on Swiss, German, US banks.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:37 - ID#280214)
Grizz, Sharefin, All - time to invest in 10-grain Gold coins
And make money. Let's get this ball rolling, fish or cut bait, sh1t or get off the pot, etc. I've been whining for so long for somebody to DO SOMETHING, now somebodies are going to - a real honest to gosh .99995 10-grain, certified, barterable, GOLD COIN.
For more infor e-mail Charlie at>
or me at

Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 21:16
chas ( The Hatt your 10:24 ) ID#147201: If you haven't checked SDRer at 18:47, please do and see what the implications are with your concept. If you prefer my email is Thanx Charlie

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Voyeur Professor -- It is the OTHER countries and their investors/banks who have mainly 'propped up' the so-called 'value' of the dollar and markets. ( Not to dis-associate idiots here too, but... ) . When they 'deign' to do so no more is when the 'reserve' currency will have found some kind of replacement ( s ) . Light will be seen at the end of the tunnel, but unforunately, many will not identify the major part of it as the freight train coming down the track and get out of the way.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:41 - ID#290281)
Maybe he needs to add some AMZN........

Another guy on TV just said he isn't worried because he doesn't own any high-fliers. He said he owns KO and PFE.

Bully Beef
(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:43 - ID#259282)
The financial show on PBS said that deflation in the U.S. in imminent.(sp)
It said that interest rates would be lowered. Question....Stock markets around the world went up today. The Cow Jones went down. Bonds and treasuries are to go down.Did investors go to places today where they feel they will get more promising returns in the future. Are they going to go gold? When returns are flat in America where will they go? Is money ( as in the big boys ) going to start abandoning the U.S. strong hold ( Fortress America ) ? Will Bill Clinton get lucky tonight? Is a fishes arsehole watertight?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:46 - ID#290281)
Stan Weinstein: Beware of Sucker Rallys

PAUL KANGAS: With me now to analyze the woes of Wall Street is Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "The Professional Tape Reader" market letter. Welcome back, Stan.


KANGAS: During your market monitor interview with me just last month on July 10 when the Dow stood at 9106, you said we were late in the ninth inning of the bull market, because you saw all kinds of echnical problems. The non- confirmations between the Industrial Average. The Transport Index. S&P 500. A very poor advance/decline ratio. A very disappointing new yearly highs and lows. Now we stand at 7539. And yet some analysts are calling this, a bull market correction. Is that possible?

WEINSTEIN: I think that's ludicrous. As far as I'm concerned, all you have to know. They lost $500 billion today. Two trillion since the top. The NASDAQ average OTC stock is down close to 50 percent. The Russell2000 is down 31 percent. Even the Dow, which is way behind, is down almost 20 percent. To me, if this is a bull market correction, I wouldn't want to see the bear mark or the bear market.

KANGAS: The action today. Does this worry you? Or does this look like a sort of a final blast on the down side?

WEINSTEIN: Short-term versus long-term. Short-term, panic. I think that within 24 to 48 hours, putting in a short-term bottom. But, this is a bottom, the next when it comes. Not, the bottom. I think from the next bottom fall, no way do you go to a new high. You don't even go back to a recent high. This next rally up, who knows? Maybe it's 8000, 8200. It's a rally to be used for additional selling, not for buying.

KANGAS: So you told us we were late in the ninth inning of the bull market. What inning are we in, in the bear market at that rate?

WEINSTEIN: I would say third inning of the bear market. That's why I'm telling you. I don't want to buy this next rally. I think people are underestimating it. We're still in the early stages of the bear market. I think redemptions are going to first start coming in here. I think we're going to have some problems.

KANGAS: But if we see massive percentage declines like we did today, how long can it last before we get to zero?

WEINSTEIN: ( LAUGHTER ) Well, if it kept going down today, that would happen. But it's not going to happen. Through every bear market I've ever been in. And this bear market reminds me very much of all the way back in 1962, which crashed. There's always the next oversold rally.

KANGAS: You didn't use the word "crash," did you?

WEINSTEIN: I think what you saw today was a, a crash. I mean, my screen had nothing but red on it. I think this is a definite crash.

KANGAS: So on the next rally, not only would you use it to sell long positions. But would you initiate short positions?

WEINSTEIN: Absolutely.

KANGAS: Where.

WEINSTEIN: I don't want to give shorts out, you know, short sales on your show because this market is moving too quickly. But, yes, for those that know how to do it, I would be selling short. Especially in the more speculative stocks, which a lot of them are still up on top.

KANGAS: And not giving into the temptation of buying some of the Dells ( NASDAQ:DELL ) , you know, down 18 today. The Microsofts ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) .

WEINSTEIN: Which certainly looks like a bargain. No, I think this is what people have to learn. A lot of times, even though people are positioned right, and they miss the start of the bear market, they get sucked in because they say, oh, that's cheap. And what I've learned is what's cheap, can become cheaper.

KANGAS: When you saw this coming, based on technical problems with the market. But you look at the fundamentals, too, don't you? What do you think the problem is there?

WEINSTEIN: Paul, if you take a look. The technicals, you know, are terrible. But in addition, the political situation. The worst since Nixon, back in '74. Fundamentals, earnings are going to be disappointing. Valuations, they were recently the highest in history. You put it together. To me, this spells, bear.

KANGAS: Big bear.

WEINSTEIN: Big bear.

KANGAS: The other things is that, you're, I'm mean, you're trading on these rallies. But you have to be awfully nimble for that.

WEINSTEIN: Right, and that's only for those people who really know how to do the trading. I think for most of your viewers, the best thing you can do. They're supposedly in for the long-term. Which, I think, after today, some people are going to start to think less long-term. I think that they should look to sell rallies. Have a little bit less mutual funds. And even though two years from today, we may be higher. I think in the next few months, we'll be lower.

KANGAS: Take the security of bonds? Is this a time to go into bonds?

WEINSTEIN: Bonds have been fine. Obviously a lot of people are doing that. That's why bonds are strong. But I think profit taking is not a dirty word. They should do some selling.

KANGAS: So stay on the sidelines until this thing plays itself out.

WEINSTEIN: Still very cautious.

KANGAS: But we are in a bear market.

WEINSTEIN: Yes we are.

KANGAS: All right. Stan, thanks very much for being with us again.

WEINSTEIN: Always my pleasure Paul.

KANGAS: Been a pleasure. My guest, Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "The Professional Tape Reader" market letter.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1998 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:48 - ID#266105)
perpetual consol blondes

Then there were the two blondes still arguing about what
kind of animal made the track they were examining when the
train hit them.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:51 - ID#288399)
Ken Starr's smile
EJ, et al., Ken Starr's open, relaxed smile ( something you don't see very often with socially prominent people ) is the result of a CLEAR CONSCIENCE.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:52 - ID#401460)

Nikkei 225


(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:52 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Bully Beef -- Well, I TOO thought that the Fed would have to lower rates. At this point in time now though, I am at the point that I think they won't or can't, come hell-or-high-water. I think they woulda if they coulda. Now I think the futures are starting in the other direction. Seems to mean that money isn't going to be 'incoming'. Early yet, but the very real possibility is at hand. At least temporarily.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:55 - ID#290281)
Net Chatter
Fred Hickey refers to CNBS as Bubblevision. I still laugh about the fact that the talking heads were insulted by Abelson saying they are bullish. "We are journalists. See our hair spray, hear it roar." Then the guy from London calls in and says, "we got our market up today. Hope you guys don't drop the ball." He was joking, but everything they say is bullish, from the party atmosphere on an up day to the funeral dirges on down days. to the comments just before the 512 point drubbing that "the market is down, but it doesn't look that bad." That ain't neutral. It also is bad reporting, if they cared about that sort of thing.

But, the main thing I hate about them is reporting statements from companies and analysts as though they were hard news and not mentioning that they are selling crap to the viewers, so caveat viewer. But, should a bear show up and make some statements, they always give a disclaimer about him talking his positions. They are about as even handed as the guy who killed The Fugitive's wife.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:55 - ID#29048)
Kaplan's daily post is up...
Gold rally NOT due to short-covering....

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:55 - ID#280284)
Ashanti Goldfields (ASL)
Someone commented that they were "disappointed" that they made an investment in Ashanti Goldfields. Regardless of your outlook on gold, any time you can buy a company in recession with steadily increasing earnings ( currently $0.57 per share ) , a P/E of 10.42 ( at Wednesday's close of 5-15/16 ) , decent dividends ( with the option to receive shares instead ) , and a very active stock buyback program where they actually buy shares and tell you how many they bought, when, and at what price, it is worth considering for purchase, in my humble opinion.

--Steven Jon Kaplan

(Wed Sep 02 1998 20:59 - ID#227238)
Don't know 'bout you sarge but, for me, lookin' out 800 yards, over iron sights, becomes increasingly difficult as time progresses. For my money, a cheap scope of any sort is a godsend. 'Sides my fence line is only a hundred yards away. ...... 'n it still looks better through a scope. Yes? ...... {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:01 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro
Starr is a turd. But, he's OUR turd.

My scriptwriter sister just did a rewrite on a movie version of Animal Farm, sort of a "Babe" Noir.

Am I the only one here with butterflies in his stomach about tomorrow? I have a really bad feeling...


(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:04 - ID#400260)
"Another's site"
If Kitco goes off again, is there an alternative site to go to for gold discussion===Perhaps where "Another " is

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:06 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Your post saying "One VERY significant thing is that there is a very
large short overhang in Silver" got me to thinking. This large
short overhang in Silver is paper right? I assume that there is a
large SHORT position by speculators via the Sept. contract. Isn't
1st notice day upon us very soon? If these shorts were planning to
actually make delivery, shouldn't we be seeing alot more Silver
pouring into Comex Warehouses? My point is that most SHORTS don't
plan to deliver physical. They are only in it for the paper profits!
Now, as eligible Silver continues to shrink, they have to be careful.
If they were actually called upon to deliver the physical, could they
do it? Is this where LBMA would come into play? Mr. Armstrong implys that
there is an enormous amount of silver in LBMA vaults. We, of course, don't have proof one way or another, but does it really matter?
I guess my point is that alot of these shorts will be bailing out of the
Sept contract very soon. Will they roll over into December? I don't know.
I do feel, more and more, that when they really truly have to cover because of such a low amount of physical "eligible" Silver on hand, the
move upward could be explosive!
I'm still new and ignorant on how Comex operates. I hope I haven't gotten
my theories too out of wack! Anyway, please post responses and/or
corrections if you all wish. Silverbaron may be able to enlighten us more. Thanks, Foxman

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:08 - ID#231112)

I agree entirely that OTHER countries have indeed played the greed game to suit their purposes. But dollar hegemony has proven a trap for them because they borrowed dollars big time to underwrite growth that now has to be paid back with devalued currencies. Ironically, dollar-dominated global growth has proved a double-edged sword. Malpess' position makes this condition evident.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:09 - ID#227238)
Yer small gold coin thingy is comin' to pass. While visiting the gold store this morning, I was informed that 1/10 oz coins cannot be kept in the house. They are flying out the door in large quantities. ..... In fact, as I passed the counter a fella registered dismay that he would be unable to plunk down $34.50 and walk out with gold jingling in his pocket. ..... I have an order in for some but don't know when I will get a fill.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:12 - ID#29048)
Hut @ when Kitco is down
One such place is:

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Voyeur Professor -- No question about the veracity of your statement what-so-ever. Now to double the irony of the whole situation, the American taxpayer has to pick up a very large portion of the so-called IMF 'bailout'. What were the reasons to import? Many and varied, but I think we have now gotten a 'surtax' on those imports!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:20 - ID#400260)
Thank you Speed

small investor
(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:22 - ID#105143)
Merrill Lynch-moved abx to accumulate
along with a few other gold stocks today. First time in a long time that the big boys may see an opportunity! Get a discount rate cut and we could have some fund!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:23 - ID#348129)
@FOCUS-Gold, grains eke out gains, oil falls back
 "Heavy speculative shorting ( selling ) has been at least partly responsible for the slide in gold prices recently, but these momentum traders are starting to get nervous with gold prices now in uncharted territory at their lowest levels since 1979,"

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Gold and grains rose Wednesday with support from a weaker U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive overseas.
 In other commodity markets, cotton prices rose on expectations that cotton in Georgia and other coastal areas of the U.S. Southeast might be damaged by Hurricane Earl, a menacing storm now in the Gulf of Mexico.
 But oil markets fell back as traders, who had pushed the markets higher Tuesday as the storm's threat prompted shutdowns of offshore oil and gas production, focused instead on a weekly report pointing to continued large U.S. oil supplies.
 At the COMEX in New York, gold for December delivery closed $1.20 higher at $283.40 an ounce, compared to its life-of-contract low of $273.80 set on Friday. December silver ended five cents higher at $4.84 an ounce.
 "Heavy speculative shorting ( selling ) has been at least partly responsible for the slide in gold prices recently, but these momentum traders are starting to get nervous with gold prices now in uncharted territory at their lowest levels since 1979," said Jeffrey Christian, managing director of industry consultant CPM Group in New York.
 Although Wall Street stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday, investor nerves had steadied on Tuesday as the stock market and many commodities recovered some confidence after Monday's near-record stock debacle.
 Further weakness on Wednesday in the U.S. dollar against the yen and other currencies also encouraged buying of dollar-denominated commodities by foreign purchasers.
 That element carried over to grain markets, which have seen a slight pickup in export business this week. Grain importers have held off bookings for weeks as prices fell to the lowest levels in years ahead of the main U.S. harvest this autumn.
 Wheat prices tumbled to 21-year lows on Tuesday, but Pakistan bought 100,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat Wednesday. Egypt bought 50,000 tons last weekend, and the U.S. government continues to enter the market to buy grain as food aid donations for Sudan, Ethiopia and other poor countries.
 "Wheat was hit with some bad news from overseas financial markets, but financials including the Dow started to calm down," John Kleist, a Chicago-based commodities analyst, said of this week's market action. "Pakistan and Egypt buying recently helped."
 Corn for September delivery closed up 2-1/4 cents a bushel at $1.92-1/4 after bouncing off a 10-1/2 year low Tuesday. September soybeans ended 2-1/4 cents higher at $5.25-1/4.
 Cotton rose in tandem with other major export crops, but the main factor bolstering support was Hurricane Earl in the Gulf. Some traders speculated that if Earl resumed its previous course to the northeast, the Georgia crop, which accounts for 12 percent U.S. cotton production, could be harmed.
 "I expect it to have some effect on yields. The question is whether it's already been priced into the market," said analyst Sharon Johnson at Atlanta-based Frank Schneider & Co.
 At the New York Cotton Exchange, December cotton closed 1.39 cents a pound higher at 74.84 cents.
 Oil prices closed lower. Traders had bought Tuesday on news that Hurricane Earl was sparking shutdowns at offshore rigs in the Gulf. But a weekly report later showed that the levels of crude oil and oil products were still well above year-ago levels, sparking speculative and commercial selling.
 At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for October delivery closed 6 cents lower at $13.67 a barrel while October gasoline fell 0.76 cent to 40.60 cents a gallon and October heating oil fell 0.20 cent to 37.06 cents a gallon.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:25 - ID#288186)
Dollar dips vs. Yen in Tokyo Thursday...
09/02 20:52 Dollar dips vs yen in Tokyo on Sakakibara, Kuroda

0050 GMT --Dollar dipped below 138 yen in early Tokyo on
Thursday, pressure by comments from from senior officials at
Japan's Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) .
*Dollar dropped to as low as around 137.40 yen after
hitting a high of 138.45 yen in early trade.
*Senior Finance Ministry official Eisuke Sakakibara said on
Thursday that excessive yen weakness not yet fully corrected.
*"Comments by Sakakibara and Kuroda depressed the dollar,
but it was already heavy on the topside after failing to rise
above 138.50 yen," a city bank dealer said.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:25 - ID#7568)

The S&P is looking very shakey. Since it appears that we are in more of a bear market than a correction, it is not unlikely that the dip buyers will be put to the test very soon. If they don't pass, the next two days could be a disaster.

In the silly predictions department, here's mine. The low for this move will be made Monday morning at about 10:30 at around SP 850. The Fed will be easing by Tuesday, with the dollar getting smashed. Gold will retest the low's in the next two days, and the bull market in stuff will be born.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:28 - ID#42039)
reconsider the "architecture" of the world financial system -dixit BIS


31st August 1998
Following some easing of market tensions in Asia in the earlier part of the year, there was renewed financial turbulence in the second quarter of 1998. Nervousness about economic and financial conditions in Japan accentuated the coolness towards yen-denominated assets. At the same time, problems of policy credibility in several Asian countries put downward pressures on currencies in the region, with markets paying increasing attention to the risk of a devaluation of the Chinese yuan. These events, together with the weakness of commodity prices and, in some countries, political uncertainty, initiated a new wave of contagion to other emerging market economies, triggering a flight towards the perceived safe-haven markets of the United States and Europe. Thus, long-term bond yields in the United States and continental Europe resumed their downward trend, helped in the latter case by improved confidence in the process of establishing monetary union.

In this unsettled environment, announced issues of international debt securities receded from the all-time record of the first quarter. This was in part a natural slowdown after the hectic pace of issuance seen in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, activity was fairly well sustained, suggesting that positive factors remained sufficiently strong to offset heightened concerns about risk. Prime among these supportive elements were the ongoing diversification of international financing, the search for higher returns, the wave of mergers and acquisitions and the development of a pan-European securities market. In contrast, increased awareness of country and counterparty risks was reflected in a rise in the risk premia attached to syndicated bank loans and securities arranged for emerging market names. Simultaneously, credit derivatives were increasingly used for adjusting exposures as an alternative to secondary market sales, contributing to progress in the area of credit risk management.

The comprehensive BIS banking statistics now available for the first quarter of 1998 show that the unprecedented expansion seen in international bank lending during the fourth quarter of last year was not sustained. This turnaround reflected the retreat of Japanese banks from both interbank and final lending business and masked the continuing buoyancy in the activity of EU banks. The expansion recorded by the latter group was largely driven by intra-European transactions, reflecting some redirection of activity back to Europe in the wake of the Asian crisis and positive perceptions concerning EMU. In contrast, and notwithstanding the ample supply of loanable funds worldwide, reporting banks sharply reduced their exposure to Asia. This appears to have only marginally benefited other regions in the developing world, although special factors sustained lending in a small number of countries.

The resurgence of financial turbulence in the second quarter of 1998 lent a new sense of urgency to addressing the issues of crisis prevention and resolution. Despite the numerous initiatives that have been spurred by the Asian crisis, national and international authorities continue to face difficult trade-offs, such as the need to reconcile domestic and external constraints and to provide liquidity while limiting the risk of moral hazard through an appropriate sharing of the financial costs of crises. Recent events have also underlined the need to reconsider the "architecture" of the world financial system, which is increasingly beyond the reach of national regulatory powers. Other recent developments, such as the wave of mega-mergers and alliances in the financial industry and the restructuring currently taking place in derivatives markets, are also likely to lead to a reconsideration of supervision and regulation. Compounding these challenges are the pressing issues related to the advent of the euro and the transition to the next millennium. All these developments will test the ability of the various groups of actors, in both the private and public sectors, to cope with the greater interdependence of global financial markets.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:30 - ID#396249)
Earl and All...I mentioned a while back that Morgan and Peace Dollar bags were tough to get compared

to a few months network is having a
picnic on Labour Day in Colorado we always
take a bunch of product with us on these type
of promotions we placed an order two weeks
ago with one of the biggest suppliers in the
business....we are talking about bullion here
1 1/2 1/4 and 1/10th oz less
than of 1/3rd of this order has been for UNC $20 Saints and Libertys
forget it....what does this mean 1 ) Current
price of Gold is bogus based on supply 2 ) Big
boys who are holding product and are not selling
waiting for higher prices......pick one

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:31 - ID#288186)
D.A.; Ouch! You think Gold will retest its lows? Not what I want to hear...
BTW, Are the markets open Monday or did u forget it's Labor Day?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:39 - ID#26793)
FLASH! Columbia devalues the peso; will have impact on all of Latin America

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:40 - ID#370218)
Brother oris...why are the recommended rounds more powerful?
Just a ? from someone who does not understand. Found the Foochi or whatever @ cheaper than dirt...JHP...I assume is Not for target practice.: )


(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:40 - ID#288186)
D.A. ; You once posted some time back that if we started seen large drawdowns
at Comex depositories, then fireworks were possibly about to begin.
I think it was something to do with how refined the Metal was and
that if buyers were not able to get Silver through LBMA which is
more highly refined, they would have to go to Comex for lower grade
silver. Is this assessment correct? Is it still a possibility?
Also, could you explain and/or give your thoughts on eligibles vs.
registered at Comex Warehouses. TIA Foxman

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:41 - ID#225236)
Reason for PPT
Alternative reason for PPT: stupidity of politicians.

Most people assume here that there is some big-money conspiracy that simply wants to rob Joe Blows of their money, whence they let the big guys get out while letting the little guys take the final blow. Perhaps.

But there is alternate scenario. Remember the year Bubba got elected? I often wondered why he did. My answer was ( and still is ) that nobody was stupid enough ( even Bush ) to want the job. Bubba was ( and is ) a king of morons. As reported in Bob Woodward's book "The Agenda," Bubba, when lectured about importance of the bond market, exclaimed: "you mean to tell me that my presidency depends on some f***ing bond traders?"

Why is that important? Remember 1992? Dollar at the toilet, budget and trade deficits impossible to deal with, etc. US begging Japan to intervene in the currency market to stop the fall of dollar? Perot spreading doom and gloom scenarios? Talk of little real manufacturing left on US shores?! Anything you buy "Made in China?"

Well, the fake bull market changed all that: dollar rose to incredible heights at the expense of everybody else. The hefty capital gains taxes from the bull market eliminated the deficit problem. Congress, rather than talk about killing Social Security, now takes the capital gains taxes as granted and argues how to spent them for the next twenty years. Yes, once again, it is Stupidity, Stupid!!!

The whole US house of cards depends on the stock bull market! It saved the dollar and it saved US socialist programs. Once it goes, US will never be the same ( if it still exists ) .

I think Alan Greenspan ( the only non-moron in government ) has orchestrated the whole magic recovery in a nave hope that this will allow US to solve its long-term socialistic problems without blood in the streets and without people fighting each other over who will eat the last rat on the block.

Well, you were wrong Alan Greenspan. Hope you stashed several AK-47s with your gold coins for your family. Let the show begin!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
D.A. -- Re: Your, 'from the silly predictions department'; Supposing financing/refinancing debt here is having problems attracting the necessary dollars, the effect cannot mean the lowering of rates in that regard. BUT, IF they want to make an attempt at salvaging the whole debt-based system, then they about have to in order to provide liquidity that has been badly lacking. In the first scenario, we should find more countries looking for alternatives and finding only gold. In the second scenario, we should find a semblance of inflation driving it and gold will be rising, along with other commodities. It would appear that in either case, a strong reason to be holding physical gold can be found.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:43 - ID#301318)
Embassy Threats Continue
Top story in The Manila Times 9/3/98:

Next target of bomb attack: US embassy

UNIDENTIFIED groups have threatened to stage bomb attacks on the US embassy in
Manila as well as other American installations in the country within the week,
forcing government to place security units on full alert.

The threats were received both in Manila and in the Middle East, and singled
out the US embassy along Roxas Boulevard and the American Hospital in

In Kuwait, security officials found a handwritten note on board a passenger
jet from the United Arab Emirates warning of a bomb attack on the embassy in
Manila on Friday.

''The American Embassy in the Philippines will be bombed on Sept. 4, 1998,''
the unsigned note said, according to Col. Bader al-Saleh, spokesman of the
Kuwaiti interior ministry.

"The note was in English and it was found aboard Emirates flight 103 from
Dubai to Kuwait on Tuesday," Al-Saleh said.

"It was placed in a visible area in one of the bathrooms... Whoever placed it
wanted the note found," he added.

Security people searched the Emirates flight, which arrived from Dubai on
Tuesday but found nothing suspicious, the official said.

The National Security Council, the Philippines' highest policy-making body on
security affairs, has already been alerted about the threat, according to a
government official who asked not to be named.

"This is the first time we have heard about this and we are notifying the
National Security Council in accordance with our procedures," the official

More threats

At the same time, Western Police District director Supt. Virtus Gil said they
received their own intelligence report that the embassy would indeed be bombed
on Friday. On the same date, a group of militant Muslims are also reportedly
planning to demonstrate in front of the embassy against the US missile strikes
on Sudan and Afghanistan.

Gil said the police are meeting with embassy officials later today to discuss
security measures to deter the latest bomb threat.

"We are taking no chances," he said.

"All I can tell you is we have seen the same report you have but we have no
comment. It is a security matter," a US embassy officer said.

He said the embassy had been on alert, like all other American diplomatic
missions around the world, since last month's twin bombings at US embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania that killed 263 people, including 12 Americans, and injured
more than 5,000.

A visit to the US embassy along Roxas Boulevard showed no visible security
preparations. No police personnel and prowl cars were seen in the vicinity.

Hospital threat

The American Hospital along Soriano Street in Intramuros was also subjected to
a bomb threat earlier this week.

The Manila bomb squad reported that a bomb threat was received by hospital
employees last Tuesday.

According to SPO4 Voltaire Gomez, employees of the American Hospital received
a phone call at 7 :45 a.m.

The employees said the caller sounded like a young man who spoke in Tagalog.
The bomb squad was called in, but failed to find any explosives after a
thorough search.

The American Hospital is a medical facility exclusively for the use of embassy
officials and employees in the country.

More security

Following the east Africa bombings, the US embassy in Manila asked the
Philippine government for increased security around the chancery, the
residence of the American ambassador and other US facilities in the country.

"We're very happy with the response," an embassy officer said, referring to
security measures taken by local police.

The bomb threat came after Philippine authorities said last week that a
relative of Saudi multi-millionaire Osama Bin Laden, whom the US accuses of
masterminding the east Africa bombings, may have bankrolled Islamic separatist
groups in the Philippines.

Philippine National Police director-general Roberto Lastimoso told reporters
that Mohammad Jamal al Khalifa, Bin Laden's brother-in-law, was suspected of
funding the fundamentalist group Abu Sayyaf.


Over in Kuwait, investigators said they found a handwritten note which warned
of a bomb explosion at the US embassy in Manila on Friday. The note was
unsigned. It was not clear if the aircraft was supposed to fly to Manila

"We first thought there was a bomb threat, then some said it was related to
narcotics," an aviation source said, describing the commotion around the
Emirates aircraft and its passengers.

Authorities questioned all the passengers and took handwriting samples from
all the people on board the aircraft to compare them with the note.

"Samples from three male passengers were similar to the note and they were
questioned," said al-Saleh. The fate of the three, all from the Indian
subcontinent, was not immediately known.

Unspecified threats

Diplomatic sources earlier said that some Western embassies in Kuwait,
including the British mission, had in recent days received "unspecific

Western embassies in the region "take all such threats seriously and continue
to monitor security measures at embassies and for staff and citizens," one
diplomat said.

"We noted this latest note with interest," he said.

Security around Western interests in Kuwait and the region, including
embassies and military bases, has traditionally been tight but was stepped up
further in recent months in response to threats by Bin Laden, who in May
declared a holy war against US forces in his homeland.--

With reports from Michael Sadim, Reuters and the Associated Press

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:44 - ID#370218) dear departed mother could not take...
much better care of me than you. Thanks again, ongoing...whatever.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:44 - ID#341234)
Bear Market?
Good mainstream bear market article in Bloomberg. Notice the disclaimer.

"This is a global bear market."
"In a bear market what's important is not the depth of the plunge, but how long it lasts."
"For instance, during a particularly ugly stretch in the '60's and '70's, the Dow made no progress from the end of 1963 through the Spring of 1975. For nearly a dozen years, investors who held onto stocks were holding dead money."
" need to know when to throw in the towel."
"...the financial media seem to be in a state of denial."
"...the press wants to avoid creating panic."
"...profits are petering out."
"Fundamentally, what causes busts is booms."

John B
(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:45 - ID#77133)
Small Investor
Very positive sign from Merrill Lynch. Thanks,

Date: Wed Sep 02 1998 21:22
small investor ( Merrill Lynch-moved abx to accumulate ) ID#105143:
along with a few other gold stocks today. First time in a long time that the big boys may see an opportunity! Get a discount rate cut and we could have some fund!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:46 - ID#26793)
Mexico announces strategy to support the peso

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:48 - ID#173274)
@the scene
robnoel -- What's been happening with the premium on the coins of late. Seems like it should be rising quite a bit if availability is otherwise low.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:49 - ID#307271)
Ashanti (ASL)
Re: Kaplan's read on Ashanti:
The only reason ASL dropped today is because of its purchase of SAMAX-- all outstanding shares. Look for a huge rise in this one soon.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:49 - ID#272206)
Who is shorting the NASDAQ??
Did anybody notice the triple bottom in the NASDAQ composite before it tanked on Monday? It looked set to rally, then wham!! - relentless selling at any price steady until the close. Same type of selling today at the close but this time it was the DOW. IS THIS VANGUARD?, FIDELITY?, some combination of hedge funds? Foreign interests? Don't these kingpin portfolio manager yuppies all talk to each other anyway? Seems to me that this DOW crash is guided by a higher financial power, not by individual market idiots. ARE THESE GUYS FRIENDS OF GOLD? or just panicked kids trying to offset redemptions? Obviously, the stock mutual funds wouldn't touch GOLD, but why not the hedge funds? All they would have to do is shell out a few hundred billion and wham !!!!!!! everybody covers, the physical is gone, and the CBs start to lick their chops. Gold loans dry up and the race is on. Which hedge fund has enough resources left? Any ideas?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:50 - ID#228128)
Thats the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. I was half asleep when I wrote that this morning. Spent too much time last night preparing for a hurricane which didn't materialize, at least not on us. I think Oldman is gettin it in Florida. Tommorrow the S&P looks increasingly shakey. Its now below its 4 day MA which is not good if you're a bull. I'm short and will get shorter on a morning rally. Support at 936 and 900. Overhead support at 1001 and 1025 and the 200 day MA at around 1055.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:54 - ID#430236)
FACT: IMF will receive its $18 billion from the US
FACT: IMF will receive its $18 billion from the US...
FACT: Russia will not get it ( snif snif )
RUMOR: All of it will be used to short gold tomorrow....

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:55 - ID#7568)

My guesses at the markets are just like everyone elses, guesses. But here's some reasoning, for what its worth.

I think that the wildcard driving the US stockmarket is overseas money. I believe that something like a trillion dollars of net foreign purchases of our stocks have occured over the last few years. This balances against our accumulated trade deficit of something like 5-6 hundred billion dollars over the same period. The excess capital inflow has caused the dollar to go up as the stock market has soared.

Whatever pace that money flows into a market is always dwarfed by the speed at which it can exit. In the current case, foreign ownership increases the exit speed phenomenon. The situation is not unlike the beginings of all this mess when US funds tried to bail out of emerging country stock and bond markets. The declines in the financial markets were compounded by the losses in the currency component of the trade.

Right now, every blip in the Dow coincides with a currency blip. This effect causes the swings to be amplified for foreign investors. If the Dow drops 1% and the dollar falls an equal amount its a 2% hit for the foreign investor. This increase in swing amplitude heightens the possibility for a downswing which does not come back. Today's action was not at all encouraging.

Seeing that Mr. Yen is still not satisfied with current Yen levels, the pressure will remain on the Yen shorts. The rally we have seen so far in the Yen has been a jawbone special. No bucks have hit the table. While long term it is unlikely that intervention can turn the tide, in the short term a whole lot of pain can be produced.

Given the knee jerk reaction that sends gold in the downward direction every time the stock market dives, I believe we might see it again on a market swoon. This connection will only be broken when the deflation thesis is brought under fire by the possibility of a worldwide dollar reliquification.

Until it is clear that something is going to force worldwide dollar liquidity, I don't see the driver for a bull market in gold. The best shot at this right now, appears to be capitulation in the stock market.
The next 48 hours could do the trick.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:57 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Donald -- Re: Mexico Peso support; Games! Best it can do is give 'em a bit more of time. That's all these ploys are designed for; Time. ALL doomed to failure. It might provide them enough time to place 'blame'. And like Malasia, they'll blame the 'speculators' instead of debt.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 21:59 - ID#266105)

Vertebraes #23 & 24.

But I repeat myself.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:00 - ID#396249)
Eldorado....Although premiums on golden eagles have not moved...Junk Bags have gone up Quarters

and Dimes 5% 1/2 Dollars 7% because I can't get Dollars I have no idea...but should they come on the market 10 to 15% would not be out of the question....rumour has it a lot of folks are hoarding because of Y2K....barter currency......I'am sure Gold premiums are going to go nuts soon....not a matter of if...its when

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:02 - ID#43349)
Waiting for the dawn
Globex down. Bonds up. Dollar up. PM's up....

Down in the saloon the Kid's having a last little fling. The old man's up in his room cleaning his Colt. An occasional carriage cliters and clacks by down on the street. No one will get much sleep tonight.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:04 - ID#29048)
Dollar Falls vs. Yen....

Jawboning works

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:04 - ID#287312)
Kolorado: From the fall in the dollar corresponding to
the fall in the market makes me think it was foriegn and mostly the Japanese. It makes since, they'ed be the first to bail out, they've already been burned. Dollar is down against the Yen almost 5% in one week.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Kolorado -- Triple bottoms typically fail. One is best off selling them when seen.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:06 - ID#173274)
@the scene
robnoel -- Thanks for the info!!! Seems to say that if one can find it, BUY it!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:08 - ID#370236)
boilin' w/the rest in So Cal
chill out, move slowly here at toddy time.
Upon reviewing here, SDRer has interesting posts @19:06 & after.
That's some nice work.

But Tolerant1's blue aguave setting in now. Jeil model still echoing
in this heat oppresed brain.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:10 - ID#348129)
@From S. Kaplan --- When short covering is Not short covering
SHORT COVERING??? WHAT SHORT COVERING!!! Almost all gold analysts are attributing this week's gold rally to "short covering", as though that were the only reason why the yellow metal could ever rise. If one checks out the actual COMEX figures, one will discover that on Tuesday, when the price of gold rose by a substantial $3.30, open interest INCREASED by 1,001 contracts. That's just the opposite of short covering, and is very unusual ( and bullish ) ; in a rising market, speculators are increasing their short positions, and commercials are adding to their long positions. The longer this continues, the longer the rally in gold can continue, since there remains a large quantity of short positions that must eventually be covered.

CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN--An substantial percentage of the world's financial assets these days are managed not by the mutual funds which are so often advertised on sports programs and TV melodramas ( is it any wonder the bull market got so carried away, with such broad viewer participation ) , but by hedge funds and other pools of money managed privately by various brokers ( including some VERY well-known firms ) and traders. The absolute amount of this money is enormous. The major difference between mutual funds and privately managed funds is that hedge funds often buy or sell on razor-thin margin, just as investors used to do in the "good old days" of the late 1920s. With the recent drop in the U.S. stock market, many of these funds are between a rock and a hard place, depending upon their percentage margin and the risk tolerance of their clearing houses. Recent "warnings" in the news media by major players on the Street that they are suffering losses due to "the Russian situation" is really a code word for margin calls on the U.S. stock market, since it is mathematically impossible for trillions of dollars to have been invested in the first place in a tiny, illiquid market whose total capitalization is a few billion dollars. One thing these money managers' positions have in common is that the vast majority of them are 1 ) long stocks and 2 ) short gold, and in a very big, leveraged way. As the stock market is dropping, they are getting margin calls. Since they have little or no cash ( notice that many of them are suddenly "welcoming" new investors! ) , THE ONLY WAY FOR MANY OF THEM TO MEET THEIR MARGIN CALLS IS TO BUY BACK THEIR SHORT POSITIONS IN GOLD! Further stock market declines will cause a spiraling of these margin calls, forcing more of them to cover their short gold positions, and pushing the gold price higher. Eventually the price of gold will rise enough to force margin calls on the short gold positions themselves--the final straw--pushing some of these enterprises into bankruptcy, and crippling others from continuing to buy stocks and short gold. As insolvency spreads, the short gold positions will be covered simultaneously in a huge forced asset liquidation.

ALL IN THE TIMING--This week's gold rally is following a calendar pattern typical of a sharp move upward: higher on Monday, sharply higher on Tuesday, higher on Wednesday. There is a much greater chance than is recognized by the market of a very sharp two-day rally on Thursday and Friday that could bring spot gold up to the key resistance level of $286. The key will be the price action around 11:30 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:14 - ID#370236)
Gollum - call in the strike control team - if their not busy elsewhere.
Cancell all flights now. Avoid the rush.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:16 - ID#272206)
Eldorado, APH, Suspicious
Looks like we all agree on the foreign interests selling the DOW to repatriate their cash. Personally, I have been lurking here since the site started but I didn't believe any of the DOW bear bull* until last week. Obviously, there are now trillions of dollars looking for a new home. Where will the $ go?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:17 - ID#7568)

I like the idea of denominating whatever wealth I have in something tangible. At the moment I am more inclined to own physical wealth ( stuff ) rather than the means to produce it ( equities ) simply because of the relative valuations. There is a lot of stuff out there that can not be produced and sold to make the current equity valuations reasonable. The argument for gold is the same as can be made for other stuff. My own money is tied up in hardwood forests in Central America, 19th century paintings, and t-bills. Through my work, I have a very large short exposure to the dollar, so personally being long lots of gold is not a good diversification. The possible decline I see for gold is mostly related to what would be a climax in the current downwave of the stock market. However, I don't think a recovery in the market would be particularly good for gold as it would in all likelihood forstall further declines in the dollar.

My original inclination was to buy gold on a break below 280. So far it appears I should have stuck with the program. We shall see. To date, being late in the gold market has not been a real problem, but the bottom does only come once.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:18 - ID#45173)
I reported here two months ago a shortage of Morgans and recently that has turned into a drought. Yet the spot price of bullion silver is lower. As I suspected, previously "junk" dollars now have numismatic value due to increased demand from... Joe Sixpack. The other Joe, the one that's already out of the stock market. Joe the smart, independent thinker. Power to him.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:19 - ID#43349)
Where have the dollars gone? With trillons of dollars worth of currency coming into the US to buy stocks, and more from 401k plans, the streets should be awash with currency.

Instead a dollar is harder to find than an honest politician. So hard to find that one will buy more commodities, and goods than for years. We have not seen the inflation one would expect.

The Fed has sold trillions of dollars worth of bonds. They've spent weeks and months taking excess reserves out of the banking system.

There are no dollars in the stock market. No one stands behind fiat stocks. That is why they will drop in price also as people try to get dollars for them.

I can soap any kind of price on an old used car and let it set forever, It's only when I get serious about getting it out of the yard that the moment of truth arrives and I find out what it's REALLY worth.

The market will crash for the dame reason commodities are down.

Elvis has left the building.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:20 - ID#284184)
RE: Ashanti Goldfields

I owned Ashanti for a while, but sold when I realized the extent to which they sold production forward. Maybe someone here knows more info. Aren't they sold forward a ton, well in the next decade? And, like ABX, aren't they in deep brown stuff if the POG soars?

I don't know. I think I like NEM better, especially at this price and with their refusal to sell forward.

IMHO, Fergie

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:22 - ID#173274)
@the scene
As much as well all love the shiny stuff, it WILL behoove all of us to be much better prepared for the 'eventualities' than that! If you don't have a stockpile of food, guns and ammo, and good water availability, then it may be that all your 'precious' just 'ain't' gonna be able to help you out. One will find that 'precious is as precious does'! In fact, other tradable commodities will more than likely help out more during a real crunch. Just to keep things in perspective...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:22 - ID#348129)
@A portent of things to come...... "net loss of 250 billion yen ($1.81 billion) for the year"
Hitachi expects to plunge deep into red in 1998/99

TOKYO, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - Japanese electronics giant Hitachi Ltd said on Thursday it expected to fall deeply into the red this business year, hit by a rapid worsening in its semiconductor business and dwindling demand for its electronics products such as personal computers.

Hitachi said it would post a group net loss of 250 billion yen ( $1.81 billion ) for the year to next March, down sharply from its earlier forecast of a 40 billion yen profit. This compared with an actual group net profit of 3.4 billion yen the previous year.

``The market price of 64-megabit DRAMs fell below our predictions and system LSIs suffered a severe setback owing to slow market development,'' Hitachi said in a statement.

Hitachi president Tsutomu Kanai is scheduled to hold a news conference at 10.30 a.m. ( 0130 GMT ) on the revision and plans to restructure the business. The plans are widely expected to include a large personnel reduction of between 3,000 and 4,000 workers from the current 71,000.

On a parent basis, Hitachi predicted a current loss of 100 billion yen for 1998/99, down from its earlier estimate of a 30 billion yen profit. It posted an actual parent current profit of 17.2 billion yen the previous year.

Current profit is pre-tax and includes gains or losses on non-operating activities such as investments in stocks.

Hitachi said given the outlook for a sharp fall in its earnings, the company would not pay an interim dividend.

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Hitachi shares were down about six percent at 715 yen in active trading as of 0103 GMT.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:23 - ID#43349)
The dollars have already gone. It's like a parlor trick. You only think it's still in the magician's hand.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:24 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Select Gold & Precious Metals Posted the Largest
sector percentage gains today.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:27 - ID#45173)
Captain Gollum, Sir
Too sick to report for flight duty. Puking already just thinking about tomorrow's mission. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightening.

Remember that storm I was telling you about a few months ago? The one rumbling off in the distance? White light flashing on the horizon? It's here. It's right on us.

I got a replacement, tho. He's old, but he's good. Name's Greenspan. He's knows the flight plan. Hell, he made the damn thing.

Good luck to all!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:31 - ID#396249)
EJ/eldorado...I remember that post and placed an order for 4 bags of Dollars

still waiting I got 30 rolls last Monday at 10am all gone by 10:30 so if you can get them grab the way I sold them for $280.00 a roll real nice clean coins

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:33 - ID#43349)
Extremely well put.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:35 - ID#173274)
@the scene
D.A. -- Your posting pretty well sums up a lot of my thoughts. Now it seems to be up to what direction 'they' intend to take it all; Will they lower rates or raise rates. Perhaps they'll leave them alone which will, for all practical purposes, be the same as raising. But one thing, I tend to think that gold should benefit before the bottom is in on markets simply because the money that does escape the downdraft has to find stability ( or more ) someplace. Gold should capture some of that. More especially, I would think, if that downdraft is happening to the 'reserve' currency, and much/all else is still hosed.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:38 - ID#43349)
Never fear. Gollum Airlines has sold out to a foreign investment banking group. We are planning on perhaps starting a taxicab company. We also see some future in Pullman cars. Amtrak shall rise again!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:41 - ID#372235)
Tantalus Rex re: your 20:19

Thanks for the encouragement.

I didn't mean to sound disappointed with my ASL, just wish I had waited till the end of day to purchase my last installment.
( purchased at 6 5/8, ouch )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:42 - ID#348129)
@Another one biting the dust. The lucky holders of Gold in Columbia are feeling little pain ........
Colombia devalues currency, citing world financial turmoil

BOGOTA, Colombia ( AP ) -- Blaming turmoil in world financial markets, the Colombian government announced Wednesday it will devalue the national currency by allowing it to drop nine percentage points against the U.S. dollar.
The central bank's announcement, early Wednesday morning, was made after the peso had come under increasing pressure because of speculation neighboring Venezuela would pare the value of its currency. Venezuela is Colombia's second-largest trading partner.
The peso, which closed at 1,443 to the U.S. dollar Tuesday, traded Wednesday at about 1,500 -- a drop of about four per cent in value.
Finance Minister Juan Camilo Restrepo said the currency was devalued because of "the recent evolution of international financial markets." The central bank said it would allow the peso to depreciate at an annual rate of between seven and 23 per cent.
Restrepo also announced measures to pare the burgeoning budget deficit, including strengthening tax collections and reworking the government pension system.
"Colombia is healing its public finances, and it will continue to be a good client of the international community," Restrepo said.
Global markets have been whipsawed by the economic troubles of Asian countries and the more recent travails of the Russian economy. Investors fearful the contagion will spread to other developing countries have pulled out of financial markets in Latin America, battering stocks and currencies in the region.
The Colombian government had spent $210 million US since last Friday in foreign exchange markets trying to prop up the peso. It has spent about $1 billion US during the last year.
In announcing its move, the central bank said it would raise by nine percentage points, effective immediately, the level of the band within which the peso is allowed to fluctuate.
Speculation of a peso devaluation has been heavy since President Andres Pastrana took office last month, inheriting large financial and trade deficits from former President Ernesto Samper.
The devaluation was expected to boost exports and employment, thereby reducing the trade deficit, while raising the cost of U.S. dollar-denominated debts. Inflation, running at 14.7 per cent this year, was also expected to rise as the cost of imported goods increases.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:44 - ID#173274)
@the scene
D.A. -- One more addition. I can even see a very potential possibility that gold will even rise WITH the equities, should the times be such that a 'few' investors know how to read a chart and thus reach for 'value'!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:45 - ID#7568)

If you believe the money supply numbers there are indeed plenty of dollars floating around. Inflation is in the eye of the beholder.
Try and buy an equity, a house, a decent painting, or a golf course membership and you will see inflation. If you want a lump of gold or copper or nickel, there is no inflation at all, in fact quite the opposite. The dividing line is basically whether or not the stuff is home grown ( USA ) or whether it can be created offshore and sent over on a boat.

Here's a thought to ponder. If the stock market collapsed and real estate prices went with it but the price of corn, copper, coffee and cocoa puffs doubled, would it be an inflation or a deflation?

P.S. The line about the gunfighters was great. Got me to thinking about the movie, 'The Quick and the Dead'.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:48 - ID#348129)
Thanks Gollum.......

(Wed Sep 02 1998 22:53 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Don't know if you're luking, but I like that 8:04 A:M posting you made. As you know, countries are undergoing debt driven 'competitive devaluations'. I.E., 'sell more to pay off debt so you can have more debt to pay off, etc, etc...' Your posting indicates a possibility of 'competitive EVALuations'! I.E., 'You are gonna be destitute if your currency isn't fair, honest, and equitable'. Much of this might have been said better, but I thought I'd toss it out for examination. Thanks for your posting.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:02 - ID#219363)
Sure is quiet, can you hear the silence ?

All over America, people will be holding their breath in the morning at about 9am EST, just praying that the drop on Thursday is just a re-test of the low. Will it be ? I heard some folks talking and they were saying that it would, that we would bounce back up, that this was the bottom. They right ? The drop this afternoon irritated me. I was in the broker's office trying to re-purchase the PUTs I sold during the "big" crash'ola ( at a nice discount ) and the damn DOW started tanking while I was sitting there, so I only got half of what I wanted. I guess if we this is a temporary bottom, the rest of the bids will get picked up on the way to the heavens.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:02 - ID#210163)
Webs of Malaysia
did anybody notice you could not sell the webs of Malaysia trading in the US today. What a thrill currency controls are to the equity investor. Now investors are bagged in russia and malaysia. I hope that we had some hedge funds selling gold to finance purchase of bonds in those countries cuz they are going to have to cover.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:03 - ID#373284)
Ya gotta say one thing about Kaplan...the boy don't mince his words. I like that in
individuals...since the first time someone on Kitco posted his site I have been a keen reader of his writings...probably 8-9 months now and I always look forward to reading what he has to say...a gulp to Kaplan...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:05 - ID#43349)
Booms and busts
Why are booms ( supposedly fueled by overspeculation ) always followed by busts? I mean has anyone ever seen a tulip bulb craze sort of thing just eventually decline back down into normalcy?

It's because of maya.

People think of the tulip bulbs as money. They give aeay their money to buy them and think they've still got it. Prices get bid up and they think they have more money. Stories are printed about the "millions of guilders" in the tulip bulb market.

There aren't any more guilders than there ever were.

But people have put up thier holdings to borrow money ( money that used to be theirs if they only knew it, thus pledging themselves to pay back the bank with what used to be their own money ) in order to buy more bulbs.

In our case there are LESS dollars in the market place as the speculative boom fed by ficticious derivative money has made us think we were gaining something. There is less becuse all this time the Fed has been drainong off excess reserves. They do it to "control inflation". Too many reserves end up in the banking system due to hot money from fresh equity issues and money gets too cheap.

Eventually because of one reason or another. Confidence in the tulip bulb market fades. All those highly leveraged postions made possible by the fractional reserve banking system start trying to close out.

They can't. There aren't enough guilders. Not to pay off all the loans, margins, and hedged positions.

Push comes to shove and something's got to give. No other way.

Gold, like stocks, has too few guilders around. EVERYTHING suffers when there is no liquidity.

There may be hoards of former tulip bulb devotees wishing they had bought gold instead, but they won't have any cash.

For a while, as the system still holds, we will see a surge in gold, silver and other items with large short interests. Just as longs trying to get their money back crash the things they are invested in, so the shorts are trying to get their money out too ( get their money out, ha! there isn't any money in to be got out ) .

Once the system starts to fold ( banks go under, brokerages collapse, etc. ) all bets are off, and like in the depreesion before no one will have a dime to spare.

Except for a few very wealthy people who were able to get out in time. In the land of the poor the dollar is king.

There is a wildcard, of course. The Fed gives all those dollars back. Damn the inflation, full speed ahead!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:08 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- IMF; Ineed Mo Funds.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:11 - ID#255151)
Kitco Is Smoking!

Can't remember a better evening of posts. The dialogue among Eldo, DA, MoreGold, et al, makes for some damn fine reading. Buying Gold now is the closest thing there is to a no brainer. I plan to call Bart in the AM.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:11 - ID#247273)
What is the story about Hong Kong stopping derivatives trading?
Does it apply to equities and currency? Commodities???
Please advise, since the HK is up last two days -- seems to have a
positive effect on that market. Could they have figured out the GAME??
UH-OH. Reality may save them yet.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:13 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Bart -- You owe me a commission off of Aurics purchase!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:15 - ID#373284)
Eldorado, Namaste' Those clowns really get my blood boiling...have ya noticed
how folks that post here from other countries have ZERO good things to say about the IMF...I had thought the 18 billion had been halted but once again the gutless wonders in the District of Columbia have shown their true selves...

It also makes me mad that folks in other countries associate that dirtbag Camdesuss with America and Americans...grrrrrrrrrrrrr...

gulp to ya...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:15 - ID#43349)
I believe you will be able to find some very good deals in equities before long, and with the way people leverage the equity in their houses there too. Fine paintings and golf club memberships are kind of like yachts. Not so many people looking for them.

As for your inflation/deflation question, it would depend on how heavily each of those items was weighted in the "average concumer shopping cart"
as well as wage levels. It is the weighted wage/price level that the Fed calls inflation and strives to control.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:17 - ID#45173)
Why the current account deficit is a zero sum game
One industry's loss is another gain when the dollar is strong? In the economist's ideal world, yes. But here is the reality.

My wife is director of operations for a shipping forwarder. Until two weeks ago, business was booming. Sure, their export biz was off, but the import biz made up for it in volume. But there are a finite number of ships and containers, and if you ship a container from Hong Kong to Long Beach and then transport it by rail across the States to New York, and then by truck to its final destination, then you need to send that container back with something in it. Imagine the cost to the ocean shipper, the railroad, the trucking company of shipping the container back empty.

Well, that's what they have to do. How do they cover the cost? By increasing the cost of import shipping. But if the cost of importing increases too much to cover the empty container export costs, then the net profit for the importer heads toward zero. The importer loses, the railroad, the land shipper, the sea shipper, the freight forwarder, all lose. No one wins.

The solution for the shipper is to limit each freight forwarder's allocation of space, so as to limit the empty container import cost. At least this way the shipping company can break even.

Capitalism has its share of inefficiencies.


(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Auric -- The low in gold may not be in yet. But it would seem that the low in premium on coins is past. Also, it may be better to be months early in the physical purchase than a day late. Just maybe...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Did you ever doubt that they would cave in, with the 'threat' of very loose cannonballs rolling about the DOWtanic decks? NAH!!!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:22 - ID#373284)
What I always wanted to know is how can a dollar be a dollar when it costs the
government something to manufacture at starts out being less than a dollar I mean is that cost built into taxes...yeah...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:27 - ID#7568)

Off to count a large herd of woolies. see ya.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:27 - ID#43349)
Time for me to retire
I have to get up early to see a man about a cab company.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:28 - ID#411430)
Does anyone know what is happening with the stock mine? Last time
I looked it was about .30 or .40 cents a share. Does someone have
any input?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:32 - ID#411112)
Plane Down off Maine.....Russia as bad now as in 1917.....Clinton to quite.....bombers in Guam....

war in Africa.....war games in Middle reason to buy GOLD and lots of it

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:35 - ID#45173)
I gotta catch a cab in the morning.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:35 - ID#173274)
@the scene
robnoel -- That's right; NO reason at all. HAR!!! And I'll bet that little list of things could easily grow to pages.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:35 - ID#219363)
Talked to another guy today about unrelated things and the subject of his "porfolio" came up. He was feeling pretty bad about it I think, but he wasn't nearly as sure as most of the people I talk to that things were looking to get any better, even in the long term. Interesting conversation. I didn't get around to asking him why he hadn't sold out of the equities market, but that gets to something I think is important - I really think we're going to see another nice hit, soon, because while a lot of true bulls are looking for bargains, this drop scared a lot of people too, and they're probably just looking for a nice rally to sell. I think the bulls would be surprised how many people don't want to play this game with real money anymore.
'til it's over and then - shhhh, shhhh
it's nice and quiet - shhhh, shhhh
but soon again - shhhh, shhhh
starts another big riot

you blow a fuse - zing boom
the devil cuts loose - zing boom
so what's the use - wow bam
of falling in love
- bjork, 1995 ( she's such a babe )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:38 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Envy -- I was listening to a talk program on the radio today. A guy was discussing what He should do about a couple of small cap mutual funds that were down 31% and 37% respectively this year. The recommended advise was to hold them. And He said 'thankyou'!

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:38 - ID#215379)
tolerant-1, we don't want the IMF forced down our throat...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:46 - ID#284255)
Everytime I leave the monitor for the afternoon you guys let something like
this happen.

its poised to go either way from right here. Glad I dont have to take
a position this evening. If I were forced to bet, I'd say UP. Looks like the
pullback that comes just before they snuff the bears. Alice's elliots call
it a 2 wave, i think.

'Course I have an "alternate" count. It says 880 by lunchtime.: )

The 'Great One' did not keep the Ruble from losing 25% today. The thieves
who have fleeced Russia are buying about half the million dollar houses that
sell around here. They have the penthouse in every high rise condo bldg
along this coast. And they are NOT ethnic Russians.

The broad mkt showed strength today.

I'm not a bull. Not even a bull's REER end. But, as a bear, I dont trust
this close.

If my fears are justified, it'll reverse tonite and gap up big in the a.m.
No gap up in the morning, I'll short the first rally in size. This pattern,
if it's what I fear it is, will yield a "Gap and Go" in the morning. If it's
not, it will be an easy 40 or 50 handle sell.

Tho i aint a believer in paying option premium usually, this close would not
have been a bad spot for a straddle.

We're facing at least a rally of some importance in "stuff", IMO.
Maybe even a trend change. I been shortin 'stuff' all year, but i closed all
shorts this week. Sumthin is in the air. I can smell it. Wonder what alice
thinks about the effectiveness of 'olfactory indicators'.: ) : )

For the first time since early '97, my 'Feelins' are close to what Arch is
gettin from his star-gazin.: )

When you look at this week's chart, you realize that, in order to trade
this thing, fokes gotta figger out some way to cause them to BUY ytd, BELOW
Monday's low. Everybody that follows this market KNOWS that the 4th day down
is money in the bank, and if the third day down was BIG, then day 4, below
day 3's low is PLATINUM. But the just cant BUY it. Well, they gonna have to
find a way to do it, or they are kidding themselves by hanging around a
monitor all day. Those little s to 3 handle scalps are fun, if you got the
money to indulge in 'em, but if you cant catch some of these big moves like
we been having, you aint gonna last long.

Sure wish my old buddy alangullybillyjoebob would come on here and tell me
what time this thing might reverse on globex tonite.: )

I dont put no more stock in the holiday rally stuff than i do
in duo's 72 month cycle. But I have learned to 'feel' what they are doing in
the pits-----at least oftern enough to stave off insolvency.: )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:46 - ID#373284)
Eldorado, Namaste' yeah yeah yeah...I know...we have a one party system in the
United States...the Republicrats...mumble...mumble...mumble...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:48 - ID#373284)
dirt, Namaste' Hmmmmmmmmmmm...if it was up to me...I would disband the IMF
and make that dirtbag Camdesuss get a real job...I can't stand the fact that folks in other countries thinks he represents the thoughts of the people of America...

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:48 - ID#219363)
Even more scary to me are these folks on the television talking about stocks being down 20 and 30 percent, and that it's time to buy. The scary part being that they mean 20 to 30 percent off the 52 week average! Hell, look at a five year chart, these things have a LOT of downside potential. 52 week average. Hehehahahahaha.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:49 - ID#34191)
Bailin' out
I'm exhausted this evening from bailing out. .... The kids and I got off of the DOWtanic today...small losses in this last phase. We are gratefull for the profits we took at the highs, we just didn't get out of everything then. Overruled hubby when he wanted to use this as a buy oportunity! Got your life rafts ready?

Got gold?

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:53 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Hell, I call 'em all Democons. Seems to make more sense.

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:56 - ID#290172)
Tolerant1--20:20 That's DOUBLE 10s!

I say--you're perfect as you are. Don't mess with perfection ( actually perfection squared...that's sorta awesome! {:- ) )

StudioR--You are Tolly are going to be inspiring Heads of States...
It gives us something to look forward to! {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 02 1998 23:58 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Cowgirl -- Yupper. Now you have to contend with 20-20 hindsite vision. You'll either find that you could have done better or that you could have done worse. No problem. Just look ahead to the next move!