I would greatly appreciate comments on the Australian and Canadian dollars. I understand that they are very low now - although they have risen in the past days.

What is the tentative forecast for these currencies - will they continue to improve or will they fall back?

Is it a good time to invest in them?

I am not an American so my money is not in American dollars so I want not only to maintain the value of my money if my currency goes down - but also to make some money.

Are these currencies dependent on the price of gold?

Thank you.

Envy -- Perhaps that is where the term 'burn in hell' comes from; All your paper burning about you and your retirement funds going up in smoke. One would FEEL like they're in Hell!!! My paper resides on a roll in the bathroom where it belongs...

In my last discussion, entitled Anticipating When the Enemy Will Strike
[ http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=95&rtn=y2kman.htm], I
established a 3-31-99 deadline for getting your financial assets out
of harm's way. The rationale was that there will be widespread
concern over Y2k disruptions when various US Govt agencies have not
met their 3-31-99 compliance deadlines imposed by President Clinton.
In addition, the Securities & Exchange Commission recently mandated
public companies to greatly expand their Y2k disclosures to
shareholders. With most fiscal years ending on December 31, we can
expect to see millions of Y2k-laden annual reports being mailed out in
March 1999 to unsuspecting shareholders. This will add to the concerns.

However, I am afraid that we have been focusing so intently on Y2k
that we have ignored the possibility of an ambush long before we meet
up with Y2k. This ambush is deflation, which is quietly being
referred to as the "d" word. Most Americans still scoff at the "d"
word as being an archaic economic principle. They are dead wrong.
Deflation is best described as falling prices and falling asset values
caused by surplus capacity and slackening demand. Deflation can be a
catalyst for bear markets, recessions and depressions and has been
known to gut banking systems which have extended massive amounts of
credit based on rising personal incomes and inflating asset values.
Deflation also can be a prelude to hyperinflation as governments
drastically increase their money supplies to stimulate listless
consumer and industrial demand.

With the devastating economic collapses in Asia and Russia, deflation
is becoming more and more prevalent on a worldwide scale, but since
deflation generally is accompanied by falling interest rates, it often
is misinterpreted as a positive indicator for the stock market until
the truth is understood. That is why I refer to it as an ambush.
After all is said and done, deflation might be the main course and Y2k
might be the "just dessert."

In preparing one's financial assets for Y2k, I have placed the most
important weightings on US Treasury bills, precious metals and short
positions in equities. How will these stand up to deflation? In a
nutshell, US Treasury bills will be a pillar of strength, precious
metals will decline but can be expected to maintain relative
purchasing power and short positions in equities should do extremely
well if deflation ushers in a prolonged bear market.

Therefore, in order to sidestep the deflation ambush, it is necessary
to get out of stocks ( unless you are one of those deer frozen in the
oncoming headlights of the recent market meltdown ) and begin to build
the US Treasury and short positions of your portfolio. Precious
metals can wait a bit since deflation will bring their prices down.
Ironically, falling precious metals prices is a confirmation that
deflation is for real. Of course, Y2k panic buying of precious metals
could mitigate these price drops, but this is not likely to occur
until early or mid 1999. The short positions in equities can be
assembled in a variety of ways. One of the easiest approaches is to
buy shares in one or both of the following mutual funds: Prudent Bear
( BEARX ) and Rydex Ursa ( RYURX ) . Both funds can be purchased into
retirement accounts. Prudent Bear has lower published investment
minimums than Rydex Ursa and is configured to outperform Rydex Ursa in
a protracted bear market.

//Conclusion//

Time does not stand still while we are preparing for adversity. The
recent meltdown in Russia and sudden stock market sell-offs will serve
as testimony that things can and will happen in a flash. Global
deflationary forces are continuing to mount which would indicate that
more serious storms are on the horizon. In this context, y2k couldn't
be coming at a worse time. However, serious y2k planning is bound to
heighten one's sense of financial priorities and investment
discipline. The resulting success in preserving wealth during times of
adversity should be rewarded with some uncommon investment
opportunities in the years ahead.

SDRer, Namaste' Hmmmmmm...me and STUDIO_R...Heads of State...yeah...yeah we could do that...and good grief...perfection squared...oh my...usually I will drink to anything...but a most special gulp to ya for that line...

I can't speak on this as well as most people here can, but I really do believe that Gold is a good hedge against currency devaluation. These guys ( very smart folks ) could show you how Gold's price has "risen" against currencies that have fallen off. There's even the possibility that Gold could rise vs. "everything else", and that'd be nice too. Hard to imagine it dropping much.

Market Features: Merrill's Bernstein, Longtime Bull, Gets Very WaryBy Dave KansasEditor-in-Chief9/2/98 4:28 PM ET
Richard Bernstein, director of quantitative research at Merrill Lynch, turned "extremely cautious" Tuesday morning. Even after the market snapped back from Monday's debacle, the strategist staunchly stuck with his new position.
"There's going to be a shortage of attractive investment vehicles around the world," said Bernstein. "And that means that people will look for the highest-quality, safest investments."
"Highest-quality," "safest" and "stocks" are not always found in the same sentence. For that reason, Bernstein is steering investors more aggressively into Treasuries, the "highest-quality item around."
By recommending bonds more aggressively and backing off from his bullish stock-market call, Bernstein has, in his own words, rejoined "the brotherhood" at Merrill Lynch. For a long time Chuck Clough, the global strategist at Merrill, has argued that bonds are the place to be and that the global economy is headed for a deflationary slowdown. "Not a crisis," he insists. Just a tough time ahead for those who prefer to invest in U.S. stocks. Why should anyone care? Bernstein's track record on this market is quietly among the best. According to his records, he has made the following investment allocation recommendations:  Beginning of 1995: Tells clients to be fully invested. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is just under 4000.
 Third quarter 1995: Starts moving clients into a more "normally bullish" position. Recommends allocation of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, 10% cash. Dow is around 4700.
 December 1996: Tells investors to dive back in and become fully invested at 100% stock allocation. Dow is at 6500.
 Oct. 31, 1997: With the Dow having raced sharply higher and the Asian problems surfacing, Bernstein recommends clients move to a 60-30-10 positioning again. Dow is at 7442.
 June 2, 1998: Dow heads steadily higher, but Bernstein starts to feel the market is getting rich. His proprietary "sell-side" indicator, a measure of sentiment, tells him trouble is approaching. He shifts his asset model to 55-35-10, arguing that bonds will start to look very good. Dow is at 8890.
 Sept. 1, 1998: Bonds have indeed moved sharply higher and the Dow has sailed south. Still, Bernstein has grown more pessimistic. He shifts recommended asset position to 50-50-0.
"We're in a profits recession right now, and most people simply don't realize it," Bernstein said. "Our concern remains that earnings expectations are too optimistic."
What's interesting ( terrifying? ) is that Bernstein, for all his qualms about U.S. stocks, believes the U.S. market is the best of the now-ailing bunch. He believes the evolution of investment action is fairly simple to assess. In the past several years, investors have steadily tossed aside "lower-quality" investments. First to go were commodities, then small-caps, then big-caps without quality growth patterns and, finally, big-caps with stable growth patterns. In the stock market, Bernstein sees high-quality consumer growth companies, especially retailers, as the best positioned of the lot. But like any reasonable pundit, he allows that he could be wrong.

"If the profit cycle is going to slow, as we believe, then you want to move up the quality cycle," Bernstein said. "If I'm wrong? Then overweight emerging markets and underweight the U.S

$can projected to retrace to 65.50 within 6 days and then tank. $AUST will tank but do not follow in detail because insufficient liquidity.

tolerant -- That's democOns, with an O.

ABM -- So what is your native currency and how has it been performing against those two other currencies?

Drop me a line and I'll give you an update cdhudson@erols.com

Wednesday, September 2, 1998:Russian Crisis And Arab Investments
By: Nawfal Al-Jourani

( 1 ) Russian Crisis And Arab Investments By: Nawfal Al-Jourani
LONDON ( AROL ) -- Russia's economic problems, coupled with the Asian turmoil's, have led to a massive drop in confidence in the emerging markets including those in the Middle East, MEED reports.
Thus, Arab investments abroad were badly affected by the financial deterioration of Russia and faced tremendous losses.
http://arol.arabia.com/content/business/9_98/RussiaCo.2.9.98.shtml

( 2 ) An august ThinkTank suggests that the Russian banking system will evolve into a system of "free banks", and will be better off for having done so. Free banking suggests, for starters, ( 1 ) no central bank, ( 2 ) banks issue their own currenciesGo Gold?

( 3 ) WATCH RHODIUMIt is the indicator de jour for the next dayswell, AN indicator -cause what's out there could take your breath away. Literally!

Democons...see...I can spell...the second time around at least...Get Camdesuss!!!

Goldtech -- Problem is 'emerging markets' require liquidity and they'll then need market ( s ) . A little less of over capacity out there wouldn't hurt either! Will somebody provide a positive slant?

My 2 lorrins-- The currencies of Australia and Canada, by being Gold and natural resource rich, have been having a rough time of it. If Gold and other "stuff" rise, then I would expect that these currencies would strengthen in proportion to the slope of that rise. Thinking Nick of Canberra will own New Zealand, if Gold takes off from here.

Scrolling up. Saw the post. Appreciate the comment. Despite jawboning in British press, etc. Euro is coming on line.

Yes the markets are still over-valued esp. with corporate profits likely to dorp into the next few quarters. Yes. Yes.

BUT what if Y2K aint so bad. After all the Reagan inspired S & L fiasco cost how much? 200-300 Billion ( !980's dollars ) somehow the country survived that. I find it difficult to believe that companies that are making several hundred million dollars a year will jeopordise that for not being Y2K compliant. Surely they can't all be that short-sighted.

THEN lets say Russia has been through the worst. Syre it aint going to get much better for a long time, but maybe this is the bottom for them . New president soon- new hope.

And just say that Rubin, Greenspam and his merry band cut rates aggressively, and we avert deflation.

THEN WHERE WILL GOLD BE?????

tolerant -- Don't worry about camdessus ( sp? ) . They'll all wind up being hoisted on their own petard.

mozel -- Yupper. What do you think of the scenario of 'competitive EVALuations'?

Wizened -- It could only be a fool or an idiot that sees the storm coming and doesn't plan for the worst and hope for the best.

"When the U.S. economy turns down this and next year, Canada's economy will be crushed, because not only will business fall, but the currency will drop even further. This is the result of poor management and a socialist government. We are witnessing the demise of the Canadian Dollar and the British Pound for the same reasons. The trashing of the Canadian dollar is being deliberately done at the insistence of the U.S. government. The bank of Canada couldn't defend the loonie if it wanted to. Little gold on deposit and not enough reserves to support their currency. This is of course a legacy of NAFTA. Thirty-six years ago an attempt to peg the Canadian dollar to the U.S. dollar was a failure.

Canada and Mexico's problems will increase as weak stand-alone currencies. They just can't compete the euro on their own and will find the U.S. a refuge.



The Canadian dollar will disappear within five years, the legacy of greed, stupidity and socialism. There is another side to the story that the media won't cover. That is the looting of Canadian corporations by transnationals. This is a classic repeat of speculative attacks on the lira in Sept. 1992. A speculative attack was launched against the lira causing a 30% devaluation. This allowed privatization to be carried out at greatly reduced prices, to benefit of international groups and to the detriment of Italian state interests and the national economy.

Thus, so it will be with Canada and the Canadian dollar.



From 73 to 62 cents versus the U.S. dollar. Then followed by a move from 62 to 52 cents, then the looting begins.



The governments deliberate devaluation of the Canadian dollar began four years ago, which transcends political parties. The destruction of Canada from within actually began 30 years ago.

Social democracy on the European model was the chosen method of natural suicide.



Over the next two years the dollar will go to 50-52 and all those socialists will get what they've always wanted, a third world nation."

for all those things to fall into line...nice and neat...but while we are at it lets add N. Korea and S. Korea...America vs terrorism...the on-going war in Europe...Iraq on the border of Afghanistan...India and Pakistan and the internal problems in Saudi Arabia...with a pinch of Iraq thrown into the entire ME state of affairs and I think you are going to lite on Y2K...it is not just a question of money...other than that I think we have a shot...

I beter get a ticket to that...

tolerant -- I'm sure we all already have a front row seat. Only costs you the 'surtax' the IMF charges you.

No way...not one penny for the IMF...I will wait for it to show on cable.

This is a test post to make sure I am on-line.

The competitive evaluation scenario is the inevitable consequence of an official monetary role for gold. It is one way to end the destruction caused by competitive devaluation and currency attack to force devaluation. The other way is Malaysian Tire Money. That is to say severe currency restrictions, trade restrictions, and investment restrictions. This kills trade. Churchill, I think, said when goods do not cross borders, eventually armies do.

A world of competing for currency evaluations will render the temptation of making campaign promises to spend less appealing to politicians. This will put great strain on the socialist mentality.

I think Y2K is going to disrupt everything. But, billionaires who can afford seclusio, stockpiles, and mercanaries to protect them think differently about problems and opportunities than people who can't.

ABM -- You still haven't responded to my question of what your native currency is. Can't even help in providing a clue without it.

tolerant -- TOO late. Your 'friendly and neighborly' taxman WILL collect it. Enjoy the show...

Wizened -- I'm sure there are many others here that have also. Doesn't change a thing though. Many of those you currently think of as doing quite well in the market over the past years wil be among those that ride it back down. AND they won't be prepared!

I called a Dallas coin dealer today to purchase gold coins and they said they are sold out! They had 600 oz backordered and his comment was he had never seen so much PM activity in his 10 years working there.

Go figure?

Packrat

Let me comment about callers to CNBC's Stock talk. First let me say I personally HATE CNBC for helping fuel the massive complacency and peoples total obsession with the market. With that said, let me tell you about my efforts to call in. I have tried and tried numerous times to call in with no luck until recently. I did manage to get thru a few weeks back. The receptionist that answered, asked what my question was. I said I had a general market question. She said, "no, you need to have a specific question about a stock." So I mentioned a few stocks and she said they were not in the guests portfolio. She put me on hold and said she'd come back in a few minutes. I asked about a few more and she said no, not in his portfolio. SHE TOLD ME what his top 10 holdings were and to ask about one of those since that's what he was familiar with. So, that's how it works folks. So, you can get thru, but you need to cooperate. Sad but true.

mozel -- IF the Euro can get off the ground, and hold its own from internal 'temptations', That might be able to start that kind of ball rolling. It would only take one power/trading bloc to make the start of it. Then, other countries find that they cannot continue in any other way. Hmmmm. Concepts....

Is that stock touting by indirect means ?

That graph! Crash of 87, just to keep things in perspective. You have to scroll down pretty far to see the bottom of it of course.

http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/finman540/learncurve/images/87market.gif

Know, I wondered how the analysts on CNBC always knew about the stock that someone questioned right off the tip of their tongue and never said a bad word about any of them.
Now we know.

It really ticks me off when they tout the stock that I have short.
Tough being a bear!

"WHERE WOULD GOLD BE THEN??" My 2 lorrins says Gold would be about $500 in 2000, under the scenario you outlined. BTW, I hope that scenario comes about. Am preparing for the possibility that it won't. Good luck.

I always wondered how the guest gurus could appear so "all knowing". Now we all know. Thanks. ........ sheeeet, what a laugh!

Pack rat -- I think Bart still might have some Mounties available.

Thanks Eldorado!

A valid point, but one must always remember that "free flowing" exchange via electonic dollars does not neceswsarily promote real trade.

Moving goal posts are a great frustration, and eventually lead to "players" breaking each others shins.

Therefore there can be no substitute for an even playing field, the referee being GOLD...

I did when I bailed last week. My family is out to string me up and I'm half thinkin' that if oleman is right and the bull comes back I'll be dead meat by the end of the week. Now I'm just like the rest of the crazed kitcoites praying for the end of the world so that I can look good.

Oleman aint bullish for long term, only a few days. Great post, I'm still laughing!

I don't know what means of influence are open to the politicians vis a vis the ECB. Not much that I know of. The big change is that national currency cannot be put into the service of national policy. One of the biggest supports of national totalitarianism is removed from national control.

Your interest in competitive "evalutions" resulting from a potentially viable Euro, should be tempered by the humongous beauracracy assembled in Belgium. Those folks do not live on simple bread alone, any more than ours do. In the end the ravenous appetite of government will overwhelm all considerations of "doing the prudent thing", however good intentions might define the "prudent thing".

Soon or late, the Euro will devolve to the same common low estate as all of the others. ..... They are trying to construct an illusion of monetary ( gold ) discipline while not actually having to obey its demands. And in the end the beauracracy will prevail. ..... Its consumptive demands will ordain the same dismal result.

Got gold? If not, the hour is late. Soon it will be back-ordered. ... Hell! It already is.

I posted it earlier today but it's worth repeating: My experience today was the same as your's. ..... "Old mother Hubbard went to the cupboard; to get her poor dog a bone. When she got there; the cupboard was bare. And so the poor dog had none."

If yer position isn't filled, it may already be too late. At least at these prices. ...... The real crunch ain't arrived ....... yet.

Maybe I should wait before buying that mutual fund?

mozel -- Could be that the only alternative is 'tire money'. Can't see that being able to stand though. I understand what you are saying about the totalitarianism, and I'm sure 'they' wouldn't be very amenable to giving up their power to gold. And of course, the whole scenario would hinge on a power/trade bloc not giving into their own internal 'temptations' anyway, as I stated before. I don't know if the Euro will be able to stave off those problems. And if they did, I'm not sure that something 'bad' wouldn't be made to upset that apple-cart.

It certainly remains to be seen whether or not there will be merely the illusion of discipline. I calculate that the fiscal advantages of this monetary union will throw off surplus for a while. Some of this will be, I think, at the expense of the greenback. Some of it from economies of scale in financial transactions and in reduced transaction costs. This initial surplus will buy time for ECB to strengthen its hand before the inevitable demands for loosening begin. If the day ever comes when Europe thinks of ECU as a national government in the way Americans think of the USG as a national government, then your prognisitcations of devaluation would portend.

Y2K could throw all calculations out of the window. However, that is not going to be any source of comfort to greenback holders in the nearer term.

Brother Tom, I apologize for suspecting you of not
being an expert in the field of politically incorrect,
dangerous, usually blued all steel products which are
of great concern for the guy that our brother Tolerant1
is ready to have for lunch any time...May be you should
take it more seriosly, because I really care about your
wellbeing and health which you will need to celebrate
our victory in the near future, Russian style - you know
it includes consumption of not-doctor-recommended drug
which you can buy if you are over 21....

Anyway, it is more powerful because it launches this little
golden-colored little thingie with more speed, which is an
important factor ( in square ) in determining kinetic energy,
which makes this thingie more powerful. More speed - more
power. Fiocchi thing flies out the round hole of the blued
thing at a speed of 1,250 ft/sec, so please never try to
establish if this fact is correct by looking in this round
hole when you pull this curved slim piece called trig....
UMC thing leaves the same hole at only 1,100 ft/sec, but
remember, you should consider speed in square to determine
difference in energy. In simple terms, FIOCCHI puts more,
sorry for being so straight, powder, in their, pardon me,
ammo, than UMC.

On the gold front - still shortage of ammo, but to tell
you the truth, I'm shocked by actions of Polish brothers -
they bought gold for their central Bank?!? Do you have any
more doubts?!? Poles never buy stuff if they can not make
good profit later - I know them very well. They also like
to drink, as all normal people. The only problem is their
language, which is much more funny than Russian...

Do vidzane....and PMSP.





In regard


being accidently harmed by your new

Another post second shift report from the land of
the clueless."So, did you sell out yet?" I says.
"No" he says. I wait for the cliche. "I've lost $1,500 but I'm going to ride it out." AAAAAAAAGH. "But you are going to lose a lot more than that" I says.
Leave your jewels in the safe and get into the lifeboat. This stinkin sinkin Titanic is going down.
But hey, at least it won't be boring. You've got to have something awful in life to live through so you can brag about to the next generation...the Black Plague, the Civil War, the Great Depression, the Great Leap Forward, Armageddon. Civilization is getting too bland and beany-baby silly.

of me forgeting to delete those lines, sorry.

mozel -- BUT, one thing stands to the fore: This usury based system cannot stand. Debt can only go so far. Will it simply crash and burn without something better beyond, or will it simply begin anew.

Does a supranational beauracracy possess talents and human qualities not in possession of it's lesser nationalized brothers? It seems to me that the Euro confederation, for want of better term, is nothing more than a less tattered cape on newly powdered corpse. In short order, the same stench will eminate therefrom.

The only question before the house is how will they contain a larger and more unruly bunch of sheep. That the sheep will be sheared, is preordained. The procedures are just unclear. ... at the moment.

In the meantime, the new stiff will be an object of much attention and public acclaim for its lifelike appearance. All the while, distracting one and all from the pickpockets circulating freely among crowd. ......
PT Barnum will go down in history as the greatest sage of all time.

old ( CMX )
Dec
283.30
283.90
282.00
282.00b
-1.40
9/2/98
22:29
282.80
282.40

That's what Euro is. A new currency. A new beginning. If ANOTHER's scenario plays out, greenback debt will simply evaporate by devaluation.

Am I going to be the only guy in town with them?
( other than my buddies who I will sell the rest of the roll to )
What about when I want to repair a roof or pour concrete?
What am I going to get paid in? Cans of beans, toilet paper,
greenbacks or Gold coins? Pretty soon I will have spent my Gold
and not have gotten any back for my services. I'll be screwed!
Gold can only work as money if most everyone has some.
That way they won't be so desperate to get mine either -
cuz then I'd have to waste some lead ( I'll save the brass ) .

Methinks you are wanting in appreciation of the human spirit. P.T. was, like Lincoln who was a protege of his, I think, a flawed sage after the model of the Greek who carried a lantern in search of an honest man.

Europeans ,having experience of extreme national totalitarianism within living memory, are perhaps more wary of it than we recognize. And the Swiss Confederation has lasted 800 years.

No doubt the nest in Brussels is every bit of what you say it is. But, so far, it has not an army at its disposal.

I'll be free, free, free at last!

Each of has a philosophical touchstone by which to measure these things that governments do. Your's and mine, I'm sure, is not remarkably different.

So there's no confusion on the matter, mine is: If a government formulates "something new", it will have nothing of benefit for the poor bastard called upon to pay for it. Further, if the "something new" entails the formulation of a gigantic, new, beauracracy; it can be assumed that cart and horse will be permanently transposed.

BTW, please post the correct spelling for beauracracy. The lights are out and I ain't turning 'em on to consult the big book of words. ... {:- ) )

Earl -- ONLY the gold reserve behind the Euro can possibly be 'meaningful' outside of the scope and size of the 'bloc', internal problems or no. Very possible that it won't stand over time, but I'm sure it can stand long enough to make a change of some kind throughout the rest of the world, baring of course Y2K and various other possibilities one hears about.

also known as the SS ( social services )

by Gold - and a few cases of 7.62 x 39 and 30-06.

Grizz -- One can get mighty cold when evaporation takes place!

I better crawl back into my cave before Mozel comes looking for me
and before I get real Grizzly. };- ) )

With lots of cans of beans and toilet paper.
And a Zippo lighter. };- ) )

The Swiss are a special, homogenous case, that works on both sides of your argument. Nonetheless, they have, wisely, chosen to maintain a militia in contradistinction to the rest of the world. But more important the Swiss, until recent times, have chosen not to invite their govt into larger questions freely solved by the people on their own terms.

Acting as the discrete depository of record for all the world's despots has not hurt their position either.

There is no doubt that you and Mozel are likely correct that the Euro will do strange things to the dollar's myriad orifices. Only because it's the "new kid on the block". But in the end, it will be a shimera based on fiat just like all the others that have preceded it. There is no stomach for disciplined monetary systems in this entire universe. Discipline is imposed from without. It is never freely engaged by a willfull power. ...... And I don't really believe that either of you are arguing otherwise.

@Earl Criminal Behavior, by existing in or out of government anywhere creates eventually the necessity for government everywhere as the lesser of two evils. The struggle of the human spirit to make this inherently evil alternative to greater evil less evil than it is ought not to be scorned, particularly as virtually all of the players on the historical stage are mostly disguised scoundrels, charlatans, and rogues. It is an exceedingly rare day when your observations of government do not hold true. Almost all mankind live and die without ever seeing such a day.

Any reason why?

Earl and mozel -- Right, and right, and right. I think we are all in agreement over the longer term with perhaps some question remaining on the effects shorter term ( maybe ) .
Usury-based systems remain untenable over the longer term whether gold-backed, gold reserve 'backed' or 'promise' backed. Perhaps volatility is temporarily reduced with the increased 'confidence' of gold behind the system.

Germany, France, and the rest of Western Europe will do nothing to the US$, that the US doesn't want them to. The NATO countries do not feel so secure as to risk a big withdrawal of American military power in Europe. A strike against the US$ would certainly help bring that withdrawal about. Does Western Europe feel confident enough to deal with problems such as Kosovo, the Middle East, and an uncertain Russian situation without the United States?

Yes. And having formulated a suitable alternative, we the people breath a sigh of relief and take our eye off the core issues; only to newly discover that the criminals have subverted the entire system. To their own purposes. ...... Though I preach to the choir, nothing will change unless and until govt's are severely restricted in their range of activity. Not the least of which is monetary matters.

I believe you are factually mistaken about Swiss homogeneity. There is non at least with respect to language and religion.

It is the genius of the confederation form of government not to grant without ready recourse domestic powers to that part of government which handles external affairs. As we know, one little phrase, such as "the power to regulate interstate commerce" may, in the wrong hands, spawn diaster for domestic tranquillity. The ECU is not my idea of a well formed confederacy as the nest in Brussels has already to many powers, but it has not yet an army.

TPher -- Tongue-in-cheek, Someone over there found an extra coin in the vaults corner, and being night here, nobody is awake to buy it yet.
Like oldman once said to me here. 'Never thought I could make the market go down by buying it', or something very close to that.

Your celebration is premature unless you are an external greenback holder of debt. Internal debt holders will have to free themselves.

@Auric Are we increasing or decreasing the security of Europe with our antaganism of Islam and with our failed monetary and reform policies for Russia and with out blatantly anti-Serb policies in the Balkans ?


@Grizz Substitute debtor for holder of debt in last post.

Getting too late for me tonight. Got to call it quits. Later all...

One more. Anybody else notice lately that gold has been following the dollar up and down much more so than the yen, or am I nuts?

Goodnight.

------------The Texas Road Show: Embedded systems: Dave Hall

In order to raise year 2000 awareness and give local program
managers and lease holders information on dealing with the
expected problems, the state of Texas sent a team of program
managers and presenters to address the cities of Austin,
Houston, Harlingen, Dallas, Lubbock and El Paso. Shannon
Porterfield, the Statewide Year 2000 Director in the
Department of Information Resources ran the show. Because
the issues addressed affect organizations and municipalities
beyond the State of Texas, I am sharing some of the coverage
of this event with this list over three mailings. The next
report will be on testing and the final report will be on
municipal and county issues and readiness.

The main presenters at the Texas Y2K Road Show were Dave
Hall from the CARA Corporation and Don Estes from 2000
Technologies Corporation. Dave Hall talked about finding,
assessing and fixing non-IT ( embedded ) systems. I will
cover Dave Hall's presentation in this article and Don Estes
in separate reports because both men had some very
interesting and important things to say about the year 2000.

Dave Hall started by restating what so many have said: "How
could just two digits cause such a big problem?" He pointed
out that the problem lies at the very foundation of the
logic of the way the computers were designed. The fact that
computers were programmed with 2 digit date fields from the
sixties in order to save memory is mentioned in most of the
articles on the year 2000 problem, but most non-IT people
still don't understand how 2 little digits can be such a big
deal. At the risk of being redundant, I will offer one more
explanation for your friends or business associates who
still don't quite get it. Computers do math. They know how
to add, subtract, multiply and divide. I remember the very
first IBM computer I ever worked with in college, the first
thing to do was to load the stack of cards that would teach
the computer how to do those four math processes. The year
2000 mistake is that we forgot to tell the computers that in
certain circumstances, and for our own convenience, we want
00 to be larger than any number between 01 and 99. So when
the computer subtracts a bigger number from a smaller number
to find someone's age for example, it will get a minus
number, ( wrong answer ) or it can crash. One way to fix it
could be adding the code to tell the computer what to do
when it gets a minus number in an age calculation. This has
to be done every place where a time calculation is made. In
an age calculation, a minus answer is impossible, which
might cause the program to quit. But this would probably
not be the case with an interest calculation, where the
computer could easily calculate that you owe 99 years of
interest on your savings account. No rules of logic were
violated when it figured the interest. What happens depends
on the way the programmer wrote the code for the program
years ago.

Dave asked the audience if they had ever known a programmer
who knew the very best way of doing something and no
argument could persuade them otherwise. There was laughter
at this because everyone in the audience knew many
programmers who fit this description. Dave painted the
picture of thousands of individual programmers, absolutely
sure of the right way of doing something, programming all
the computers their way. He then pointed out that modern
computers, sometimes as small as a fingernail, have more
computing power than the mainframes of the sixties, but they
act just like those mainframes. An embedded system acts
just like any other computer and the programs for embedded
systems are just as individual and just as unique as the
programs for the mainframes, and there are many more of them
out there. He went on to say that the year 2000 embedded
systems problem is not a technical problem. "Show me a year
2000 impact and I'll fix it! Easily!" He said. "But I want
you to show me where they are! This is an inventory
problem." Then he gave the audience the numbers. Out of
40,000,000,000 chips, between 1% and 10%, or 400 million to
4 billion could have a date problem. Finding them is the
problem.

He covered the three kinds of ways that computers can break.
The first is when they quit, and this is actually good
because now you know you have a problem and a pretty good
idea of where to look to find it. The second way of
breaking is when they make large observable errors. This is
good too because the errors are obvious and will be seen and
fixed. The problem is with the third way computers can
break and that is small accumulating errors. Dave asked how
long it would take you to notice if your cruise control
added one mile per hour to the speed of your car every
minute. How about if the program at your bank deducted 1%
from your account every day? "How often," he asked the
audience, does someone go ahead and do something because the
computer told them to do it?" I was reminded of the recent
story of someone who got a tax bill from the IRS for more
than a billion dollars. They took the bill to the IRS and
showed the clerk the bill. The clerk checked it on their
computer and told the stunned couple that the bill was
correct! The clerk believed the computer because the
numbers in the computer were the same as the numbers on the
tax bill! How many people out there still believe the
computer because it is a computer? Want to bet that number
takes a nose dive in the next few years?

"How many of you think you would get the correct change at
McDonalds if the computers go down? Dave asked. It
reminded me of a time I went to a McDonalds in Santa Fe.
The bill was for something like $8.79 and I gave her a ten
and four pennies so she could make the change a dollar bill
and a quarter. ( I hate pennies ) The girl looked at the
money then at her cash register, then back to the money,
frowned, turned and yelled to the others behind her, "Does
anybody here know math?"

Dave said the main thing we have to worry about is
simultaneous, multiple failures. Right now the failures are
very few as some forward-looking business systems begin
running into the double zero wall. We have already spent
many millions fixing the mainframes that host many banking
and insurance programs. Dave says we will spend much more,
and not just on the mainframes. In computer classes they
teach the 80-20 rule. What it means is that it usually
takes only 20% of the time to write 80% of the program but
80% of the time to do the last 20%. There are many places
where the 80-20 rule works such as planning time and
resource allocation. Dave said that as far as costs go,
the mainframe problem is the 20% and the embedded systems is
the 80%. He indicated that most of the money will be spent
to prove that you don't have a problem. In addition he said
that you have to remember to use the same remediation
techniques for all seven layers of protocol! Oh, and your
software needs to be treated in the same way. If you use
different techniques for different programs, they either
won't talk to each other or will pass bad information back
and forth. And for Commercial Off The Shelf ( COTS )
software, don't forget that education of the user is a
necessity. Even if you are using brand new computers and
Microsoft Excel, the users can corrupt the system unless
they all are taught to enter dates in the same format.

Dave's closing remarks stressed testing everything to prove
it will work. He also told the group to make their
involvement dynamic, because the environment is always
changing. As an illustration, he asked the group how many
had received e-mail that had been garbled. Everyone raised
their hands. Then he told the audience that there are six
different ways to make software year 2000 compliant or ready
and none of these six methods are compatible. This means
that unless you do it right and your vendor does it right
and his vendor does it right and the government agencies do
it right and all the other people you communicate with do it
right, all your files could end up looking like your bad
e-mails.

Hall related some really interesting problems with
client-server applications. He said that client-server
systems are like mainframes where there are a bunch of
utilities talking to each other. One system ran fine during
a test where the dates were changed but crashed three days
later. They found that the error module thought it was 1975
for some reason. Since all error messages were dropped
after 60 days, the network Administrator had no idea
anything was going wrong with the system. It took three
weeks to get it back up. Another problem he noted with COTS
is if you have Excel version 5 and upgrade to Excel for
Office 97 and import a file from 5 to 97 it will change all
your macros. Excel for Office 97 uses a different language.
97 uses SQL and 5 uses Visual Basic. Hall pointed out that
we should expect this from a company whose flagship product
has a two-digit date for its name. There are lots of
standards for dates and the use of dates, but none of them
are standard with each other. He also said that they had
found a Y2K problem in Java where there are three ways to
set the date and two of them are not compliant. They also
found an error in Oracle even though the Oracle database has
always had a 4-digit year. Hall said they have found a few
911 systems that crashed and a court computer that told the
parole board that an inmate was eligible for parole when he
wasn't. A murderer, he had received a life sentence in
1997. He was actually eligible for parole in 2097.

He spent about fifteen minutes explaining all the things
that can go wrong in power plants, water treatment plants,
chemical plants and several others places. Hall's main
intent was to scare the hell out of the audience so they
would go home and start fixing their own towns and counties
year 2000 problems with an enlightened sense of urgency.

Hall's main point was that to be safe, everything needs to
be found and tested. In the Cargill report I previously
sent to this list, I said that I think 90% compliance should
be enough in some places. Is there a conflict here?
Actually there isn't. Dave works for companies that do
embedded remediation and I am writing about the year 2000
problem from a broader journalistic perspective. If I
worked for a solution company I would be saying the same
thing he is saying. I would want to find every single
occurrence because if we missed some and it shut down the
plant we would be liable and I might be looking for a job.
When I write that I think 90% will be good enough, I am
making two points, and both points concern the worldwide
result. The first is that it is too late to find and fix
all the non-IT systems. Many businesses will only make a
cursory attempt and in some cases no attempt at all. Ninety
percent better be good enough because we will be lucky to
hit that target. The second point is that some businesses
will fail because for them, 90% wasn't good enough. They
should have paid for the consultants to take them to the
100% level. But those are the breaks. It is a very
uncertain situation. There are never any real guarantees
and with Y2K we have even less. The point is, if you are
responsible for making sure your business will make it into
the next millennium, then 100% should be your goal. With 80
to 90% you will be in the position of having your fingers
crossed and hoping, or worse, be like the systems people at
the new Hong Kong Airport trying to tell their bosses that
they weren't really ready yet.

Quite so. But, you know, when these things get loose, they are not very easily caged again.

Indonesia is one of the five most populous nations on earth. Until recently it
was a bustling, booming place, with high tech infrastructure and a great
future. In less than a year, they now stand facing famine.

Don't worry though, it can't happen in America. God loves us more than he does Asians...

and whats this I hear, RR is Hepcat? cant be right.

GROUNDS TO IMPEACH

President William Jefferson Clinton has materially misled and probably lied
outright to the public about his August 20, 1998, Cruise Missile Attack on
Sudan in at least three respects:FIRST, the President misled the public and
Congress that he had proof that the Government of Sudan participated in the
bombing of the American Embassy in Nairobi; SECOND, the President
exaggerated the urgency of the matter stating he acted in self defense to
further justify his act. THIRD, the President falsely represented that
Sudan was an imminent threat to produce and presumably use "chemical
weapons".

The sneak attack on the privately owned factory in Khartoum exposes
Americans to indeterminable future risk of reprisals. The question must be
asked, did the President deceive Congress and the people in order to
perform unconstitutional acts?

ANTICIPATORY RETALIATION, DOUBLESPEAK

The Administration is attempting to cover its tracks with confusing
rhetoric. Lawrence Eagleberger, former State Department official appeared
on August 22nd Nightline and used the oxymoron, "anticipatory retaliation"
to excuse the President's sneak attack. Such statements belong in a comic
satire on out of control government.

Even if the President did not lie about his motives, the acts speak for
themselves and are in direct conflict with Constitutional separation of
powers. Article 1 section 8 clearly states that ( only ) "CONGRESS SHALL
HAVE THE POWER TO-- DECLARE WAR, GRANT LETTERS OF MARQUE AND REPRISAL AND
MAKE RULES CONCERNING CAPTURE OF LAND AND WATER." Letters of Marque and
Reprisal are forms of economic sanctions.

According to Constitutional Attorney Herbert W. Titus, the author of
FORECASTER FOUNDATION NEWSLETTER and radio, THAT'S THE LAW, commented that
National Security advisor Samuel Berger resorted to quoting Article 51 of
the United Nations Charter to support the mugging of Sudan. Mr. Titus
insists that the President must obey and answer to the Constitution for his
acts. Commenting on Berger's arguments, Mr. Titus stated, "under no
circumstances can Congress delegate these powers to the UN Security Council
or any other foreign entity. Article I, Section I ( of the US Constitution )
states that these powers are 'vested' by the people to the Congress.
Neither the Congress nor the President can 'divest' the Congress of those
powers, only the People can." ( 1 )

We Hold These Truths Agrees with Mr. Titus. Our forefathers wisely denied
the warmaking authority to the President because it is a dangerous power.
War acts always require the public to fight, starve and die. Kings and
presidents watch. Knowing this, the founders required that the warmaking
decisions be made by Congressional representatives of the people.
Mr.Clinton has again chosen to act as kings did in the 17th century, and
Congress has failed to assert its authority to hold him in rein.

The US sneak attack on The Republic of Sudan, a nonbelligerent people with
whom we have diplomatic relations, was supposedly for the purpose of
stamping out terrorism. However, this act places Americans at risk of
reprisal because terrorism begets terrorism, it invites retaliation against
American citizens. Even if Sudan's government has guilt, which has not
been shown, this does not justify our president destroying innocent
civilians in Sudan. There is no declaration of war against Sudan, and it
appears their Embassy in Washington was not notified. The President's act,
especially against a weak, remote, and war ravaged country, will be judged
and viewed by citizens in every country as a bully act of terrorism by our
government against a helpless people.

President Clinton's excuse for bombing a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum,
a city harboring a reported 1.5 million war refugees, is the plant's
supposed capability of producing "precursors" to chemical weapons. But
kerosene, fertilizer and barrels are all "precursors" to a bomb. If the
President can destroy one factory, why not destroy all industrial
production in Khartoum under the theory that they all make "precursors".

It is more logical to believe Sudanese President Omar Hassan al Bashir's
statement that the plant did manufacture children's medicine, anti-malaria
drugs, and 60 other pharmaceuticals. These medical products are necessary
for survival in Sudan. Poison gas is not. No reports of chemical weapons
use have been heard in the nine years of war in Sudan. It is illogical
that a country as poor as Sudan would tie up its only modern pharmaceutical
plant
to manufacture chemicals it does not use. Even Bill Clinton stopped short
of accusing Sudan of actually making chemical weapons.

WARMAKERS SIEGE ON SUDAN

Non Government Organizations ( NGOs ) with close ties to the Administration
have for years promulgated a massive propaganda blitz against the
Government of Sudan which is the subject of a article by this author
entitled, Using Christians To Make War. ( 2 ) The perpetrators include
FREEDOM HOUSE ( Whose Board is controlled by The Council on Foreign
Relations ) THE HUDSON INSTITUTE, and Swiss-based CHRISTIAN SOLIDARITY
INTERNATIONAL. Michael Horowitz, Director of the PROJECT FOR CIVIL JUSTICE
at Hudson Institute, is the author of the falsely named FREEDOM FROM
RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION ACT ( S772 ) which demands strangling sanctions on
Sudan. ( 3 ) On November 4, 1997, President William Jefferson Clinton
bypassed Congress and issued EXECUTIVE ORDER 13067, "BLOCKING SUDANESE
GOVERNMENT PROPERTY AND PROHIBITING TRANSPORTATION WITH SUDAN", a fact that
neither the administration nor the press talks about.

WAGGING THE DONKEY

Three weeks before Mr. Clifton sanctioned Sudan, Mr. Horowitz circulated a
memo explaining the reason for the proposed sanctions against Sudan. ( 4 )
Horowitz boasted to the bill's sponsor, Congressman Frank Wolf ( R-VA ) , that
a predetermined purpose of the Wolf/Specter Bill was to overthrow the
elected Government of Sudan. This also helps explains the subsequent
bombing of Sudan.

Horowitz also stated in his memo dated October 16, 1997, that US covert
military aid was already being used to pull down the government. Note that
diplomatic relations with The Republic of Sudan were still intact at that
time, and the Commander-in-Chief, Bill Clinton, would necessarily be a part
of "covert military aid" to bring down the government. Clinton signed his
Executive Order, effectively embargoing Sudan 18 days after the Horowitz
memo,
when the Wolf/Specter Bill was stalled in the House of Representatives.

It appears Mr. Clinton's sneak attack on Sudan is more of the Warmaker's
agenda. This raises the question of how much power Mr. Horowitz and his
Warmaker NGOs hold over Mr. Clinton? Why did Mr. Clinton not inform
Congress that his "covert military aid" against the Government of Sudan
might result in reprisals against American Citizens? Is it possible that
those who died in the Nairobi explosion would be alive today except for the
Warmaker's covert acts?

Thus far, only a few Congressmen, including Senator Dan Coates, have sidled
up to the correct question: Where does the President get the authority to
make war without the permission of Congress? Does anyone seriously doubt
that it is an act of war to stealth bomb the citizens of a country with
whom you are at peace? Who is setting the President's agenda, and why?

IMPEACHMENT IS THE PROPER RESPONSE TO WAR CRIMES

Congress should impeach the President for committing direct and material
violations of his Constitutional authority, because he has placed every
American citizen at risk. The President is sworn to uphold the
constitution, and violation of the oath are grounds for impeachment.

Only by impeaching the President can Congress and the American people send
a message to the world that we wish once again to be the respected nation
we once were, rather than our current image of the feared and hated
international police thug for the world.

IT IS NO SMALL TASK

Concurrently with impeachment, Congress should act to repeal all war powers
acts including: International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 50 U.S.C. 1703
( b ) and the National Emergencies Act, 50 U.S.C. 1601. And all sanctions
should be lifted immediately. This must be done so Mr. Clinton's successor
will not be tempted to repeat this error. If not done, it will do little
good to impeach Mr. Clinton.

Is this an impossible task, as many will surely tell us? Perhaps, but so
was the task our founders faced 223 years ago. And our risk today is
greater than theirs, for we have no backwoods to retreat to when we lose
our freedom.

US foreign policy has been shockingly and disgracefully incompetent, including the examples you mentioned. Still think Euro countries will do anything to keep US military in Europe, and therefore no drastic challenge to the US$.

What if they were talking about the International Crime of holding gold, and not this other despicable vice?

Interpol headquarters in France said British authorities had sought
their assistance "when it became clear the arrests of the ring
members, in almost constant contact over the Internet, would have
to be very precisely co-ordinated".

Police officials from the participating states had met over the
summer at Interpol headquarters to prepare the action.

"Crime on the Internet is a global phenomenon which requires a
global approach," Ralph Mutschke, Interpool assistant director for
criminal intelligence and liaison, said in a statement.

Police raided 15 addresses in Britain at 5 a.m. ( 0400 GMT ) and
similar swoops were made in Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and
the United States.


http://www.nbr.co.nz/Detail.cfm?ID=882502&Page=2512

How would we kitocoites hold out if we were found guilty of goldbuggery? An international swoop by Interpol on instructions from the IMF to confiscate our gold? How would we pass the word?

OF course, first they'd have to get past my fat and ferocious Russian Blue :- )


Got Paranoia?

Also off course Prechter has always thought this could be revisited . Well firstly I thought 2.618 times $103.50 ( $270.96 ) took us pretty close to last weeks low in spot gold of $271.50 .

However I also decided to look at the Carolan Spiral Calendar calculated from that date . F25 ( 8089 Days ) from that low gives us 18th Oct 1998, which is when Jeils500 homestake chart is signifying a gold low.

Using 18th Oct 1998 as a gold foci point usung the Spiral Calender gives us these hits working backwards ( plus other near misses on the spiral )
F11 ( -279 days from 18/10/98 ) is 12/1/98 EXACT LOW DAY $277
F19 ( -1909 DAYS ) IS 6 DAYS FROM $414.30 HIGH OF 27/7/93
F25 ( -8089 days ) is exact low of 25/8/76 $103.50

Gold could very likely make a low on this date and $270.90 could be the price

PS 2.618 x the 1980 high is a nice number

Thanks for your homepage links to markets and info .
Brian

SOrry for not answering, Wasn't online. I am from Israel and our Shekel has devalued by 6% this month, some of it on local conditions ( the interest rate was lowered ) and the rest because of international conditions. Because we have a small economy we are very very dependent on what happens in the rest of the world.

sharefin/aurophile/neutron/avid

Perhaps someone could ask hum1 from avid to come over and have a look at lefty's Carolan analysis?

My first post or two at kitco, I think, was enquiring about Carolan. Noone was interested then. What about now?


Lefty
Humble1 is a legendary Spiral Calendar/Fibo/Lucas Number analyst over at Avid. A real gentleman. He is rumoured to use no more than an old HP2C, some graph paper and an abacus he bought in Old Shanghai to spin some of the most wonderful TIMING signals I've seen. Lucas does not just make spotlights,
eh?

..... I did mention to you that I am into market geometry .
I liked the Gann relationship at the top of the S&P500
Low of 737.60 on 14 April 1997
High of 1199.40 on 20 July 1998

up 462 points in 462 days
Kitcoites look for these types of things .....they can make trading much easier .

SPOOS down 830. Serious discount to cash

DOWN $1.50 tonight - any comments on the significance ( or
not ) of this???

Here on Kitco, we've seen what's coming, and we know these
kind of stories will become more and more common, every day.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://nypostonline.com/business/5160.htm

Leland
It scares me too!
Echoes of Overend, Gurney collapse..

The sound of falling dominoes?

Long Term Capitol Management lost 1.8
Billion US$ and has only 2.3B left. That's about a 45% haircut. Another F*ing Bre-X in the making, eh!

The scary part to my way of thinking, is Mr. Average Investor
does not have an exit strategy. It will be sad.

Leland
Don't stand too close to the exits.

Devil take the hindmost.

And that's only the first one.

Many more to follow - real soon.

Lefty Kiwi
Great work matey
As Aurator said you should post that work on Avid.
Hum would devour the data and quickly program it into his cerebral databank. Truely awesome.

----------
My swing chart makes me think down hard tonight.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

Or the next.
I think this rally has failed already.

And the next wave down will be real nasty.

Have they run out of the readies???

I received an e.mail yesterday from a long-time friend who
has about $200K in equities. He said that he was 'down'
about 20% so far. He wanted to know what I was doing. My reply
was that I was buying gold! There was no response. Like most
people, he just doesn't understand.

With the DOW having gone as high as 9368, it doesn't require a vivid imagination to see gold at much higher prices.

What is required is a week of uninterupted $2 - $4 dollar plus days, followed by convincing $10 - $20 up days with very few meaningless retracements. Such would get investor interest and set gold rolling into a longterm bull.
This would wake the D-O-Wees into considering other than T-bill's and T-bond's.

I prefer the Dow going down slowly enough so some will have the cash to make investments into a rising gold market.


On another subject, I gotta respect ole Mahathir, but what the SE Asians should do IS OUTLAW ALL DOLLAR TRADING accept only their own currencies and trade among themselves and those countries who see their point of view. These people have always led simple lives and don't need all the crap we are accustomed to; it will come eventually without their paying with their sovereignty.

This would drive a wooden stake in the blood sucking vampires that are raping them.

Lefty/Leland
JM told me that they've never seen a rush to buy gold as in the past week. Going out the door very quickly.
Now even my gold-cynical business partner said "I'm not suprised" when I told him this.


"Good as gold"

I hear the phrase everyday.

The really sad part of this whole episode is over ALL taxpayers will be forced to bail out the b@ssturds out . Then everyone will be up the rectal canal in a ventilated convience with no visible means of propulsion. ( :- {

Why do you think the market will be down hard again ? ( not that I disagree )

For one ounce American Eagles, I understand that the spread
over spot is now about $17. Demand is way, way, up!

Leland
So we have reports of same from US & NZ. Perhaps ours friends in other countries might make enquiries of their contacts in the trade and advise us.

Emperor_Nick_@waiting_@N.Z.
Have you bought the Perth Mint yet?
Looking forward to hearing from you about places not to miss in Melb & Vic. Gold fields.

G'day. If the shekel has only devalued 6%, you should consider yourself lucky. I have been talking myself blue in the face on this site about buying undervalued Aussie gold shares in undervalued Aussie dollars. Same thing goes for South African gold shares and currency. Both are going to go up dramatically in the next year and will make some very wealthy people out of those with the nerve to jump into the shark infested waters. For holders of other currencies, you get a double benefit.

The Aussie dollar has risen dramatically this week. Latest figures out show Oz to be the strongest economy in the Asian region. I posted recently about Oz being a financial 'Rock of Gibralter'. We are a rich land with a small, well-educated population. Our cup runeth over. The hedge funds that play with our currency on the short side are going to get badly burned. Serves 'em right.

Could it be that the coin dealers are in colusion holding back on retail sales to drive the price up ???? ( ; - } Yes, auracious, I've got a pair of noyas.

Yesterday's trading was a failure to me.

Here the rest of the globe was up 3% to 18% with an average around 4%.
( note that's it's always the bad news and falls O/S that hurts the Dow. )

Now after the previous days rally there should have been follow through.
The O/S indices almost should have guaranteed a decent rally with more to follow through on.
And what happened?
A few bargain hunters in the Russell 2000?

A buy-in with volumes like we have just seen,
Has always instigated a follow through - not this time.

It stinks to me.
No strength at all.
No strength of buyers confirming a bull/bear rally.

Now when I look at many charts glaring failures of support abound.

Looking at my swing I think we are at a ledge from which to fall further.
Note a similiar ledge on the swing just before the fall in Oct.
The swing was trending down strongly then leveled before it dropped further.
This is where I see us now. Right on that ledge.

Confidence in the buyers has evaporated.
What's going to happen when the sellers next step up?

Already Globex is in the red - hinting at sellers.
Note the recent uptick on volumes.

Germany is already trading down.
Followed by the reat of Europe.

Smell like a rally?
Even a bear rally?

No way - it stinks.

So I see a hard down run coming fast.
With the volatility increasing as more move to the exits.
An ever increasing rush.

I would expect the trading on the Dow to shut it down very soon.
at what levels? 10% - 20% - 30%

I feel the crash is imminent.

A dangerous time to be placing bets.
Especially in the wrong direction - which is???

Eddie
I'll see your pair a noyas and raise you one Titanic.

We are seeing, IMHO, the intuitive, archetypal "knowledge" of humanity itching for permanence. Turning to gold. Slowly at first. Two friends tell two friends, who tell two friends...

"Good as gold"

I'll see your Titanic and raise you a slight proposal to your motto of good as gold.......how's about "ALMOST" as good as gold ??? Makes 'em think a bit, no? ( : - }

Haven't bought the Perth Mint yet, mate. Am considering taking up Auric's suggestion to buy Noo Zeeland, though. Might use it for a holiday home. You will be made King, of course. We will have a gold backed currency called the 'Aurator'. The coins will go from one oz ( .9999 ) down to ten grams. Your profile, along with a sheep, will appear on one side. The other side will have the most beautiful work of art in the history of the world. King Tutankhamen's death mask. Gold and lapis lazuli. I shall let you work out the minor details, like firing that useless bunch of politicians, withdrawing fiat currency, importing an Aussie coach for the All Blacks, etc.

You can rest easy about my gold share purchases on mini-crash ( version 2 ) day. I sold most of them on the open today ( got the highs ) and put a squazillion squid in the kitty. Held onto the core, though.These 'crash' days are making up for my stupidity in trading a bear market ( gold ) . Will probably buy again in a coupla days. Just love these mini-panics. I always jump in long with lock, stock, barrel and kitchen sink about 15-30 minutes of trading on 500 DOW down days. Dang these people are stupid!!! They throw their shares away at the most ridiculous panic prices. Two or three days later they pop back up. Am not looking forward to the day when a mini-crash day is followed by a full-scale humdinger crash day. On that day I shall get burned badly. So far, so good.

Ballarat 'must sees' soon. Remind me before you go if I forget, cause there are things you just 'gotta' see. There's all these gold nuggets and the 'light show' and the gold museum and...

Agree, mkt down hard to SPX 820 level by 9/15.
Those cycle lows for gold 10/18 look good. Regards. RM

"In gold we trust"

go gold

very happy to share my XCarolan thoughts with this obviously well respacted Gent ..... however don,t know Avid whereabouts .

Also to totally convince you of my newness at this internet stuff ...
Can someone please translate IMHO

thanks

spoos down 1100- 1200. Buy for a quick profit. When Dow approaches 8200, sell everything!! Gold in a dead cat bounce. $250-260 is in the cards.

Go to here and register - it's free
http://avidtrader.com/chat/

You'll find many more sites of interest here:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm

The big crash can wait until AFTER Sep't. 5th, mate. Don't wanna scare them real estate buyers, do we?? All ready to go??

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a605216.htm

I encourage you to step outside the box for a moment. It seems to me that there is some faulty logic working here, and a layer of bureaucracy
( which is in itself an inefficiency ) has been added.

All the steps you listed, each an expense of moving an ocean-transport
container, can be, and essentially *are* added up and that becomes the rate charged, for instance, for moving a container of XYZ from China to
Illinois. If the shipping company knows that it previously filled ( rented out ) 70% of those containers, let's say from Illinois, and now it is able to rent out 2%, the company can easily figure what the new total average expense per container will be. There need not be any layer of
limiting anything. The marketplace decides every day what to do. There's no mystique, no nothing except a rate at which containers or
widgets or reuseable soda bottles are used ( rented, consumed, etc. )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/japan_usa_1.html

Lefty
IMH0 = In My Humble Opinion

One of which I do not have.

Nick@Candle_in_the_Wind~~~~~who~~~farted?

Glad to see you jumped ship with the rats. As they say: "when the bankers jump out windows, best follow them. They know where the money is."

Gonna tell you when I buy paper gold again, and it won't be before beginning of December.

$3.34 silver is looking a little scary, especially since its up 5 cents - Bart, hit the corrct button.

Think the sellers of yesterday's rally will be quite happy. Metals just don't have any staying power. Here the dollar is falling again against all currencies and the metals are in retreat. One day, though, we'll get a $1.50 lower opening and a five dollar rally with a close at the highs. That will be the signal.

I do say "some Day" though it's possible that day could be a long ways a way if e just continued to sliade lower taking years to get a bottom and years to trace out a turn.

However, I do believe that that October date mentioned earlier does have promise. Seems, however, we just keep pushing out our time horizon and lowering our price target.

Probably Cental Bank selling which when offically curtailed will help sift sentiment. But I think traders are starting to sniff depressionary effects on demand for the industrial metals. Stock markets weak seems to be translating into weakness for the metals.

Still, for the most part, listening and waiting.

Sharefin ...also thanks , I have posted on Avid hope Humble 1 sees it.
Is your House Auction on the 5th September ??
If so is the full moon ( very good time for high price ( IMHO ... ) .... loonies about you know ) by design .

Nick_@sheep~s_clothing

While I am flattered ( flatulently? ) over your suggestion to include my Patrician profile on your coin, riding the sixth sick sheep of the apocalypse, carrying my trusty tupping crayon, I favour a more practical suggestion, in the mould of Luke Rinehart's The Diceman:



"... In the early years of the ( 19th ) Century...one John Ashby, member of the Exchange had presented pretty little medals to prospective clients with a bull on one side and a bear on the other...."



Perhaps a sheep on one side and a pig on the other?

I bring in a lot of containers from overseas. My cost per container
keeps on going up, and they make it clear to me that it's because of the
empties. If my costs become high enough, well then, my cost of doing business becomes so high that I will need to have the items manufactured in the USA. It's a natural phenomenon. My profits won't necessarily be
affected at all, as the marketplace is made up of the *competitive* vendors, and if my costs go up, it is very likely that the costs my
competitors bear will go up similarly. The marketplace *is* efficient.
( I thought you live in Silicon Valley. ) Enough for me, for tonight. Too many 18 and 20 hour work days. I just had a lightbulb go off in my brain, and it demonstrates how tired I am. If I keep working very long days and miss out on a lot of sleep, will I discover that somehow I missed Tuesday or Wednesday? I think that only happens in leap-week.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/frankfurt__3.html

...noted stock maven & contrarian is bullish on gold. Check it out:

http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

( Go to "As I see it" section at bottom of page ) Welcome aboard Bill!

Let's say the shipping company used to charge $.50 per pound for imports and $.50 per pound for exports and they ship 1000 containers per year each way. The $.50 per pound represents 10% of the COG of a product that a company has manufactured overseas. Their total margin is 15%, so they are making 5% per unit. Now that the shipper has fewer exports, they still import only 1000 containers and ship 500 back empty. To make the same profit, they need to charge $.75 per pound, but that takes all of the remaining profit out of the product for the importer at current prices. The shipper slits his own throat, because the importer will then either move production or otherwise stop doing business with the shipper. And not just this importer, but all importers. So raising the import charge to cover the export costs is not what the shipper does. Instead, he allocates a limited amount of container space per importer. The result is to cap the amount of goods that are imported to the US.

You're correct that if this keeps up
1 ) A competing shipping company can form that takes up the slack
2 ) Manufacturers will increase retail prices to cover higher import costs, but this will make them less competitive with domestic goods, leading to
3 ) Manufacturers will move production here

But the current account deficit is a currency exchange effect. Unless businesses can predict with some reliability that exchange rates will not reverse back in favor importers in, say, a year, and then maybe back again a year later, no business is going to shut down a factory one place and build a new one someplace else.

So I guess my point is not so much that the market is inefficient in this respect but that when currencies are flopping around, this generates such variable information that the market cannot make an efficient decision.

-EJ

this could be a good day for gold. The $ is really under pressure on the globex. Yen and Brit # up triple digits. I's likes what I sees !

Gollum's Sept.2, 22:19 should be held as the axiom for your economic future for the next 10's of months. With that approach you may not make a lot of money but you shouldn't get burned.

I've bet on a continued stumbling down the stock market staircase and expect the market to trip and fall down a flight or two as soon as today or tomorrow but no later than Monday.

Investors are confused about why the market that holds their retirement savings and kid's tuition along with their wishful dreams of easy fortune and illusions of wealth has betrayed them. This confusion is turning to anger and fear. In their heart of hearts they are more wise than many think. They know the simple maxim of life: easy come, easy go.

As someone here used to say, "the trend is your friend" and the trend in the stock market is down, down, down, and faster and with less resistance than in typical turn-arounds. I'm betting on it. My gold, on the other hand, is not an investment opportunity, it's a calamity cushion. What's still unknown to me is whether gold or cash will cushion better.
-EJ

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a605216.htm

Europe heading down across the board. Germany in particular is catching a chill.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^GDAX&d=t

And, as stated here before.....today the margin calls begin. Very soon, perhaps today or tomorrow, the mutual fund statements will begin to arrive with a wakeup call.

My sense is that most of those who have bought the easy-money brainwashing will not cut and run - until near the end. This is as usual, except that this time many more people are involved which will make the panic more pervasive.

My thoughts on gold are the same as yours - I will continue to accumulate whether the price rises or falls until everyone else begins buying it. I am negative for most mining stocks in the short run, but continue to hold a few whose revenues are in dollars and costs are in collapsing currencies.

I doubled my put positions on the SPX near the high yesterday. Tomorrow should be a bad day in the markets, IMHO.

. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/markets_pr_2.html

Maybe Lamont Cranston does, but he's very hard to find. Even up close.

I guess you all know, ol' Gollum is out of the flying business. We sold our airline business to a group of Japanese investment bankers. It will be interesting to see how their pilots do. I hear many of them recieved their training toward the end of WW II. Even though the flying schools of that era were able to cut their training time in half since they didn't have to teach anyone how to land, the war ended before they got a chance to try their wings.

Meanwhile I'm looking for investment opportunities in ground transportation. Perhaps a cab company.

Does anyone know the stock symbol for Amtrak?

Or maybe a good shoe company. There are going to be a lot of people walking.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/markets_pr_2.html

Taiwan is the last holdout in Asia, the one Asian country that kept its banks' balance sheets strong, invested heavily in infrustructure, built a strong consumer economy, in short has done everything right. At last they too are foundering. This informs Asia watchers that Asia, rather than getting close to a turn-around, is at the precipice of the next stage of decline. The Taiwan market is discounting for this now.

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 12:04AM 6251.38 -220.30 -3.40%

-EJ

Have you thought of going into the ambulance business, or perhaps into the manufacture of tranquilizers? Perhaps a generic Vallium ( Gollium ) would be of interest.
Sorry. but it looks like for the near future, Davie Tice ( BEARX ) has the best business opportunity around.

I haven't had my morning coffee yet, so perhaps someone could help me understand this:

``Shorter term, it is going to continue gold and longer term the question just has to be. 'Does Buffett still have his 129.7 million ounce?','' a dealer said.

She said if Buffett had disposed of his holding, silver would drop to around $4.50 an ounce.

Let me see. What she is basically saying is that if Buffets 15% of the worlds supply of silver is still overhanging the market the price will hold or go up, but if it's not then the price will drop.

I wonder if she works for Ted Arnold.

Sorry, that's David Tice. My appologies to him.

Gollium. I like that. Would one then trade Gollium on the COMEX? Maybe I could ask RJ.

Get Camdesuss!!!

as they watch their savings go poof...who gets layed of first at CNBC?

Is Gollium suitable for catalytic converters used in wood fired cooking stoves?

Famous last words....."Hey! Where's my Labor Day rally?"

MOSCOW, Sept. 2 ( Reuters ) -- Russian state gold officials were alarmed Tuesday over the prospects of reduced gold deliveries from the Yakutia region after a decree by its leader that gold production there was being put under the control of local authorities. "If Yakutia fails to meet its obligations we will stop advance payments to Yakutian gold miners and will appeal to an arbitration court to protect our property rights," Vladimir Skripchenko, deputy department head at the Gokhran state fund for precious metals and stones, said. Siberia's autonomous republic of Yakutia-Sakha is one of Russia's main gold-producing regions. The Russian federal law on precious metals and stones gives Gokhran preferential rights in buying gold from producers. "All gold sales to Russia's Gokhran and to commercial banks will be made only after coordination with the Precious Metals, Stones and Currency Committee of the Sakha ( Yakutia ) government," according to the decree, signed by Sakha president Mikhail Nikolayev last week. Skripchenko said supplies have not yet been interrupted and Gokhran was still expecting fresh deliveries later this month.

occurring, we were seeing Comex stock drop 1 to 2 million at a time.
Now, I haven't seen big amounts coming back in to Comex warehouses
unless you're talkin' about the 600k oz's every so often.
So, either, he still has has 129 million ( probably stored in London )
or he is slowly ( very slowly ) selling it back into the market ( at a
loss, of course ) , and that's the 600k we see comin' in periodically.
NAW...I don't think he's sold any. No way. No how. Thanks, Foxman

What do I have on my calendar? Margin calls start to be reconciled today through Monday. News about who was able to make or not make margin after that. News about terrible derivatives losses when many margined accounts were forced out after that.

The good news is that many brokers won't need to have as much shelf space to hold the rating books of companies still in business.

Hmmmmnnnn, who makes bookcases? There might be a good short here.

Panic n 1: a sudden overpowering fright; esp: a sudden unreasoning terror often accompanied by mass flight 2: a sudden widespread fright concerning financial affairs and resulting in a depression in values caused by violent measures for protection of securites or other property 3 slang: something very funny

Webster's

-EJ

Think we can get

Maria Gina Lollobrigida Daffy Duck Lips Bartiromo

as a Kitco Cheerleader?

that is, after her post partem depression is over.

Hang in there, labor day rally still coming...but stay in cash utill you see the whites of it's eyes.

Looks like the head and shoulders top is IN!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Buffet's timing is the thing to look at. He bought in at the end of last year. He thought the equity markets were overvalued. He also liked the fundamentals in silver.

Sure enough, the equity markets have headed south and COMEX stocks continue to dwindle.

So what kind of time frame are we looking at? He built his own warehouse to store the stuff. This does not look like a short term in and out of the paper market kind of thing to me. He's waiting for time to tell.

Our early research reports indicate that Gollium is suitable for catalyic converters in Gollium fired heating stoves.

Also, it's edible and keeps without refrigerating.

Our cost analysis indicates we can make it for a nickel, sell it for a dollar, and it's habit forming.

We are putting together a prospectus now.

"Our cost analysis indicates we can make it for a nickel, sell it for a dollar, and it's habit forming."

Sounds a little like the fiat dollar to me.

Funny how the Dollar is going down vs. Yen & Mark, yet Gold is still
being sold. I guess we're not going to see big improvement until the
Stock market tanks big-time. Or if the Fed lowers rates...

can if the Baron desires such...however...I suggest we insure safety by having her travel by train so her lips don't explode in the cabin of a plane due to Dafffogen injections...although I will check on flight insurance...

http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.html
Click on "Go International" [UK]

http://www.esi.co.uk/
Electronic Share Information

I vote for Maria and those marvelous lips. She also is about the best reporter CNBC has to offer!

Does anyone know about this Greenspan speech mentioned in the Yahoo gold article that you posted earlier. Has this speech been scheduled for some time or is this an announcement recently scheduled.

Gold has to go up faster than the dollar is falling to be in an uptrend in everybody's currencies. Take a look at gold in terms of DMarks, Yen, Swiss Francs, etc. It is dropping like a stone.

Maybe that's why it will keep going down. This could be self-reinforcing.

If Clinton is impeached it will not be because of his criminal acts against Sudan. A susbstantial Republican faction headed by Newt Ginrich is pushing Clinton to be more belligerent still. And a strong right-wing Zionist element is beating the drums for a renewed US assault on Iraq.
Their propagandists such as George ( warmonger ) Will are accusing the president of cowardice for not bombing Iraq already.

Shepler still expecting more downside fireworks:


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 9/3/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/28/98 close: 11.16

Return on current trade: 8.98%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 20.80%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -10.09%


Market Commentary:

The market was turned away from our projected resistance area of
1100-1110 SPX on Wednesday in what can only be described as a major
disappointment for bulls. Bears had to defend the 1100-1110 area to keep
the pressure on, and Wednesdays big reversal on heavy volume of 896
million shares should have bulls running scared. After Tuesday's strong
rebound, the lack of another follow through day suggests that buyers
have shot their wad and have been overcome by heavy selling. A high +999
TICK reading was seen at the intraday high Wednesday. As we have stated
before these high TICK readings are usually indicative of at least a
short-term top. So, the pattern of several days hard down followed by a
1-2 day dead-cat bounce continues unabated. If bears can take out the
972 SPX support area Thursday then we will remain on track for our
mid-September crash scenario. If bulls are to save the day they must
come back to the market in droves Thursday. Lately Thursdays have turned
out to be bloodbath days for the market, let's see if this phenomenon
continues this Thursday.
Our proprietary buy/sell indicator terminated its recent buy signal
after only one day. Unless Thursday is a downside washout this indicator
should give a second buy signal at the close Thursday. Unless the market
turns up strongly and takes out 1110 SPX we will ignore this signal. The
reason is that this indicator will fail in the midst of an emotionally
charged powerfully trending market. We think that is what we are now
confronted with, a powerfully downtrending ( ie. crashing ) emotionally
driven ( soon to be panic ) market. Therefore, in this circumstance just
about every contrary technical indicator will signal a buy, but the
market will continue to fall anyway. This is the scenario we have told
subscribers to expect for some time now, and the reason we have remained
with our current Ursa trade despite extreme oversold readings from many
indicators.
Market internals Wednesday were much improved over Monday's readings
but still certainly nothing to get excited about. New lows dropped
dramatically to 281, but this is still an extremely high level, and is
very bearish. The best new highs could do was expand to a miniscule 20
issues. The Dow rose over 550 points from the intraday low Monday to the
intraday high Wednesday, and only 20 stocks were making new highs.
Yikes! If that isn't a bear market rally we don't know what is. In
addition the Dow Transports resumed its decline Wednesday, falling by 51
points. This creates a negative divergence that should be resolved by a
big down Thursday for all indices. Advancers versus Decliners finished
positive for the day by a 3 to 2 margin, but finished well off their
best readings of the day. We expect the Advance-Decline line to resume
its steep descent on Thursday.
The downside reversal Wednesday took some of the froth out of the
OEX put/call ratio, but it still only managed to barely squeak into
neutral territory at a 1.1 reading. This is hardly indicative of a high
fear level yet. So, look like we need more downside to put a good scare
into speculators who can't seem to fight the urge to buy dips. The Rydex
ratio showed some more profit taking by nervous bears expecting more
rally. The ratio dropped to 139% which would be a high ratio by bull
market standards. However, this ain't a bull market, and we technicians
will have to develop entirely new ranges for our indicators for the
coming bear market.
So, we are going to stay put in the Ursa fund. Our favored wave
count shows the Big Kahuna could have gotten underway with Wednesday's
downside reversal. If so expect acceleration to the downside Thursday.
Our initial downside target of 7500-7350 was satisfied by Monday's
intraday low of 7400, our next downside target is Dow 5000-5800. We will
try to fine tune the range as we get closer. Fasten your seatbelts we
could be in for a wild ride over the next few weeks.

Warren Buffett is the best. Just watch him, copy him and make money.
He's been bearish for 15 months now.
Consider this.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought General Re, America's largest reinsurer ( Many observers stated that it showed Buffett's bulishness ) . General Re was/is CASH rich. According to "Grant's Interest Rate Observer", before the purchase BT had assets of $50 billion of which $40 billion was in equities, $10 billion in PMs, bonds and cash. Now BT has $74 billion of which $45 billion is in equities and almost $19 billion in PMs, bonds and cash.
A huge change in position without triggering a panic.
No doubt Buffett, for 15 months has been going into PM and cash.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/188618.asp

Thanks...I think I kinda knew that but was curious. As you can tell, it has been a while since I have been into this area. Planning on a bunch of practice to regain my lost skills.

PMSP...getting a little tired of waiting but a currency crisis is at hand.

Tom

German DAX down over 4%. Europe getting redder. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Great call By S. Kaplan !!! This has to be bullish for Gold ........

Think the reason FTSE may not be listed on Yahoo markets is that it is Reuters, which may be British. Also, is Marie pregnant? Besides, isn't her real name Marie Sophia Loren Bartiromo? I'm a woman, and I'd love to look like she does! Maybe she'll leave after she contracts post-PPT depression.

I believe it's been scheduled for some time. It's on Friday. Here's a quote fron Bridge News:

That said, there is a lot coming down the pike on Friday in the form
of a Greenspan speech, the jobs report and a Rubin-Miyazawa meeting.

Maybe. Except the yen is gold's OLD dancing partner. Lately it goes up and down with the DOW.

DOW tanks, gold tanks. DOW retraces, gold retraces. DOW weakens, gold weakens.....

I meant post - CNBC partem depression. Acually, I have no idea about whether MB is pregnant - I quit watching the channel when they went thourgh their silly 9000 celebration.

soon!

Where are you getting your Yen quotes?

We all should know by now if the Dow opens weak the ppt immedeiately applies pressure to gold.... They know that a falling market with a rising gold price is the perfect enviroment for FEAR! My opinion is that the price of gold will recover today!

the DOW. Let's see....I KNOW!! There are plenty of willing partners
here at kitco that would dance the night away with GOLD! Me 1st!

MoReGoLd -- I'd like to see Dec gold fill the gap at 280, and NOT much less, and Dec silver see no more than its current 4.75 pullback of today. THEN see that they break no further and turn back up and GOOOOO! That would be my most favored scenario. Would be fantasically surprised with it actually coming to pass like that though. But who knows...

09:11 MEXICAN PESO SINKS, TRADES AT 10.05/10.09 PER DOLLAR AT OPEN.

O.K. Will it be the Northern Peso, Southern Peso, or American Peso that tanks first??? Oh, I forgot my frame of reference. Where's Einstein when you need him? :- )

I agree with what Professor Gollum said the other day. Don't watch the dollar/Yen, so much as watch the US bonds. When bonds reverse demonstrably in the face of an equities debacle, there will be no place for the flight to safety money except precious metals.

Also, as I just noted to FOX-MAN - watch the gold pattern in terms of the other currencies - until gold is going up in ALL currencies, it isn't in a bull market.

Where can I find info on Shepler Market Timer? Any web site?

Regards,
VHale

1929 in America wasn't far removed from the agriculural and farming era before life in the big city began to draw them away from the rural life.

As one writer said:

In the summer of 1929, the United States had seemed a capitalist's dream -- dynamic, inventive, thrilling. In 1931, the nation seemed a post-industrial failure -- hungry, sullen and out of work, shuffling through a city soup kitchen or gone to ground, back to Grandma's house, to scratch out a living on the land.

How many today could go back to Grandma's house?

Gollum and MoReGold,

Observation of gold falling with whatever happens to be tumbling, Yen-gold through mid Aug. and now Dow&Dollar. I don't get it.

I don't even get to put stops into gold shares I buy - and kerplunk.

Thank goodness I am short cybertulips.

Yes. Watch bonds. Especially treasury issues.

http://biz.yahoo.com/n/z/z0003.html

STREETWISE

Rayrock's troubles herald other blowups

Thursday, September 3, 1998
By Andrew Willis



To brew up a potentially explosive situation at a company, all one needs to combine is a sharp slide in the market, an unfocused corporate strategy, lots of cash and underemployed investment bankers.

Such a volatile mix now exists at Toronto-based Rayrock Resources , where a bare-knuckled fight for a control of the gold and copper miner began late last week.

The same theme -- disgruntled institutional investors pushing management to do something, anything, to pump up the stock price -- is playing out at Inmet Mining. Beyond this pair of hard-pressed mining plays are a host of companies in similar circumstances. Welcome to a world of shareholder activism in a bear market.

At Rayrock, the catalyst for change is Quest Ventures , a private Vancouver-based merchant bank. Quest is run by two fellows with solid track records for financing mining plays -- Murray Sinclair and Brian Bayley. However, there's not much demand for mining financings these days. The opportunities are in turning around companies. Quest has bought just over 5 per cent of Rayrock.

Quest set out a radical plan for Rayrock, which enjoyed its best days at $15-a-share levels in 1995 and has drifted along at $5 for the past year. The newcomers proposed electing a new board, handing out Rayrock's $60-million hoard of cash and marketable securities in the form of a $5.50-a-share special dividend, then selling off the remainder of the company.

Rayrock is now on the defensive. The board's first move came Tuesday, with the hiring of a chief executive officer -- the office had been empty. The new man in the hot seat is Jim Askew, who has global experience and was president of Golden Shamrock Mines before it disappeared in a merger.

Mr. Askew promised quick action to get Rayrock trading above its net asset value; his first words to shareholders came in a press release that promised the company is "well placed to grow aggressively."

Quest isn't buying. "The recruitment of additional senior management at this time is arrogant, serves to disenfranchise Rayrock's shareholders and underscores why Quest felt obligated to requisition a special shareholders' meeting," said a release yesterday from the merchant bank.

Activity like this defines a soft market -- a flurry of mergers and acquisitions that see the strong feeding on the weak.

The difference between what's happening at Rayrock and what's been seen in past downturns is the presence of activist shareholders such as Quest. This bear market promises some noisy blowups.

You quit after the Dow 9000 celebration? Oh, my favorite was the NASDAQ 2000 Celebration. CNBC is the best show on earth -- all those fake smiles, the recent claims by Insane-a and others that 'they are not allowed to have a position on the market' ( whatever that means --does anyone know specifically? ) , the regular "dissing" of gold and/or the failure to make any connection when the dollar/market goes south and gold goes up. So who needs soap operas? CNBC: the lonely housewife's friend in deflationary superbear cycle times.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/http2_data/squote.htx?source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw&ticker=%24INDU+%24ADV+%24DECL+%24TRIN+%24TICK+%24TVOL+%24DVOL+%24UVOL&tables=table&format=fractions

Anybody want to bet on when we retest the RECENT lows?

We may be nearing a time when nearly everything declines at once. Equities down, bonds down, precious metals down ( for a time ) .

Cash and very-close-to-cash government treasuries will be king, and a basket of currencies will be best ( if you can arrange it ) to insulate from the wild currency-cross swings.

Strap yourself in, and take a good dose of that Gollium tranquilizer stuff - gonna be a wild ride. I understand it that the Japanese consortium which bought Gollum Air has pilots which do not understand English.

BANZAI WORLD AIRWAYS, I believe it will be called.

Same thing happened in Thailand. The kids went abck home to the country to help their parents farm, or Mom and Dad sent money from produce sale proceeds to support their kids in the city. How's that gonna work here? Only Mama Fed Gov is here to support her kids. And she'll be worse than broke herself.
-EJ

And that's only the first nine minutes. Let's see, how many minutes are there in a trading day?

Rates - http://quote.yahoo.com/m3?u
All: I agree there is no one indicator that will show the trend.
The Yen is one indicator, since there is high demand in Asia for Gold, and the Yen/Gold price will make it more attractive.
My bottom line is that the ordinary investor will have to have a hand in the next major bull run in Gold. There has to be a sea change in investor sentiment towards PM's.
Equities analysts are the main problem at the moment, they are directing the capital in one direction only. I.E. Dear Abby Cohen.
It would take years for Goldbugs alone to soak up all the supplies dumped by the europeans..........

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/us_treasur_1.html

JUST ANNOUNCED: A major consolidation of Gollum Air and BANZAI WORLD AIRWAYS - the new merged company will be called Kamekaze Air.

They may need an emergency act to nationalize the farming and transportation system. The national guard will be able to get fuel pretty cheap for a while. And paying soldier wages will keep a few bucks in the economy.

Spiral Calendar. I've got his book & have read the whole thing, but haven't had time to think about how his ideas fit in- did a little testing of his analysis and discovered that the patterns were as flexible and as hard to interpret as Elliott waves are.

I think there are definite possibilities, and I think they are connected to the short-term environmental factors documented in W. Wilder's book on the 'Delta Factor.'

What were you thinking about concerning his analysis?

- Steve

Spiral Calendar. I've got his book & have read the whole thing, but haven't had time to think about how his ideas fit in- did a little testing of his analysis and discovered that the patterns were as flexible and as hard to interpret as Elliott waves are.

I think there are definite possibilities, and I think they are connected to the short-term environmental factors documented in W. Wilder's book on the 'Delta Factor.'

What were you thinking about concerning his analysis?

- Steve

then call Buffett to see if we can chat about his silver. : )

Tom

Looks like it's all flying to Swiss francs, Japanese yen, German marks, and anything else that doesn't have the the word "dollar" associated with it. They're getting out of equities, gold, and even bonds are looking anemic.

Flight money is fickle.

September 3, 1998
Canada sells 128
OTTAWA, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - Canada sold 128,000 ounces of gold in August, boosting its foreign reserves by US$44 million, the Finance Department said on Thursday.
 Its holdings stood at 2.8 million ounces as of August 31, the department said.
 The sale represented a reduction in the book value of Canada's gold holdings of US$6 million.
 The Canadian government has had a policy of gradually selling off its gold reserves and replacing them with interest-bearing assets.

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )
Oct
13.67
13.92
13.62
13.90
+0.23 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
_____
9/3/98
5:00
13.90
13.87

Not a consolidation. If you've been following the posts you would have seen we sold out completely. Are now looking for ground transportation investments.

Does the company have submarine services? ;- )

I'll drink to that.

Maaaaaaannnnn! Dollar simply crashin' and other currencies burnin' up the sky! Wither gold? What a concept!!!

Uh oh. Looks like the pilot has found the control stck. I hope he doesn't overcorrect.

Surprise!

Tom

Does anyone doubt that the POG is manipulated? When do "they" lose control of the POG?

I can't watch this anymore. He's going to be all over the sky. This is no day to be anywhere above ground. I'm going back down into my reinforced conrete office with three seperate exit tunnels. Let me know if anything unexciting happens.

Now where did I put that Gollium?

WORKING??? TIA...

Market maven and analyst Clif Droke was one of the first to call the
BEAR MARKET.

Analyst Droke observes "The long-awaited bear market has finally arrived. While not making its presence known in singular fashion as we might have expected, it nonetheless has given us every indication that it has wandered into the U.S. equities market and has no intention of leaving anytime soon. It appears to be making itself right at home."

"foreign markets are experiencing the ravages of the bear right along side of us, ( though many countries are feeling its strength more than we are at the moment ) ."

"And the Nasdaq stock index of technology-weighted shares fell even more dramatically to 1635 by week's end, wiping out over 10 percent of its capitalization in only a one week period."

"At the very least, 7700-7800 seems like a reasonable near-term support target before the Dow's next correction."

See his LATEST report at the following URL- as usual it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke083198.html

saying "watch US bonds" in particular the rates on US long bonds, is Bill Buckler of The Privateer. Changes in those rates, and a change in lease rates, will herald a sea change- time to set the sails for the ride of your life!

- Steve

Ninety percent of the time things turn out worse than you thought they would.
The other ten percent of the time you had no right to expect that much.
-- Augustine

WBuffet gave a talk a few years ago to some students that I have on tape, where he advised owning a whole company if you can, such as he did with Rose Blumkin's ( recently deceased at 104 years of age ) furniture store. If he can't buy all of something, but he likes the product and/or the management, such as Coca Cola, he buys as much as he can afford. He says he makes more mistakes with small bids, also that he is an "airaholic" in regards to buying USAir, although I must say I liked flying USAir much better knowing he owned it. If he gets the idea to buy an airlines, now he dials the "Airaholic" 1-800 number until the urge passes. Does he own the silver, or does Berkshire Hathaway? I haven't read his annual report this year. Maybe he is planning on buying gold as well. Are Malaysians never going to be able to take money out of their country now? That's what it sounds like. Won't people revolt eventually? What a mess! I say just keep buying more of the PM hard stuff. You can even buy it all the way down, and when the worst is over still own something that isn't anyone else's liability. People who bought stock all the way down in 1929, 30--only wound up with a lot of paper. Ned Johnson at Fidelity is downplaying stock, also Lynch, Templeton. Maybe US munis would also be a buy now. Copper down again.

A reveral of US treasury bond yield above 5.4% on heavy volume would be indicative of a major trend change, IMHO.

This may signal that the implosion of debt is quickening and the great financial debacle of 1998 is very near.

Pinky's Tailing Box: a weekly Wednesday feature of SI's At a Bottom Now for
Gold...

B uying
U ntil
L ucre
L ags

$

B etting
E very
A verage
R etreats

$

P ortfolios
A nticipating
N irvana
I nstead
C ommon

S ense
E vaporates
L eaving
L unatic
I nvestments
N early
G one

$

P anic
L evel
U nloading
N o
G ains
E xpected

$

C laiming
R elaxation
I ndefinitely
T hrough
I nvesting
C arefully
A nd
L eaving

M oney
A ttain
S aturation
S ecurity

$

B uying
U ntil
B alloon
B ursts
L iquidation
E xplosion

$

R eceding
E quities
B ounce
O utrageously
U nder
N ew
D emand

$

G oing
O nly
L istlessly
D own

$

S lipping
I nconceivably
L ower
V alue
E ver
R etires

$

B uying
R eligiously
I n
N ationally
K nown
E quities
R epays

$$$

From the Tailing Box...

Dear Whirlwind:

Mrs. Clinton recently suggested all homemakers take a day off from their
toils so they might be better appreciated. What's your angle? --Dar in
the Dells

Dear Dar in the Dells:

I agree entirely with her--all women should boycott cattle futures for a
day. --Whirlwind

Dear Pinky's Tailing Box:

The spread on Zappa is suddenly .20/.45--what gives?

The Mother Lode? Nah--she's taking the day off.

Questions about PMs? E-mail the Whirlwind at:

whirlwindbuyszappa@mindless.com

dutifully service the American's daily toilet needs.

Psssttt! Wanna see a "perfect" douple top?
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=WMT&d=3m

10:00 Q2 UNIT NONLABOR COSTS FALL 6.2%.

10:00 Q2 UNIT LABOR COSTS UP 3.9%.

10:00 Q2 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO 2.5%.

10:00 Q2 NONFARM BUSINESS PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO 0.1%.

09:45 MEXICO PESO SINKS FURTHER, OFF TO 10.10/10.14 PER DOLLAR.

09:44 DOLLAR FALLS LOWER, OFF TO 133.03 YEN, SINKS TO 1.720 MARK.

09:34 YELTSIN READY TO ALTER LAWS TO GIVE GOV'T MORE POWER - REUTERS.

09:21 DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MARK ON SOROS SELLING - DOW JONES.

09:20 DOLLAR OFF VS GERMAN MARK, SINKS 1.6% TO 1.722 MARK.

09:20 DOLLAR SINKS VS JAPANESE YEN, OFF 2.2% TO 134.75 YEN.

So far they are managing to keep the pog down as they struggle with a very sick equity market. The ppt have done a great job of hiding the fact that the world is in a crisis and we have NO LEADERSHIP and I repeat NO LEADERSHIP! So who is going to defuse all of these landmines? God help the Dow should another shoe drop today... As has been forcasted on Kitco for sometime now the USD is about to sink and sink fast!

I'm just the messenger... Please don't shoot me! :- ) )

If you look at the balance sheet for the June quater you will notice that Buffet as increased his cash from approx 1.0 to 1.5 billion dollars over the last 18 months to 7.0 billion dollars in the last quarter.
What does this tell you???

Either he has sold his silver ( which I doubt because he is a long term player 10 years plus ) or he is getting cashed up to go shopping when after the market tanks.

Messenger again!

10:24 RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK SETS RUBLE RATE FOR SEPT 4 AT 16.9265/DOLLAR.


10:22 NYMEX CRUDE JUMPS 73 CENTS TO $14.40/BARREL ON RUSSIA, NIGERIA EXPORT SNAGS.

Ooops ; 'course that was "double top" in my last post.

Comments on the Klinton thing from Hardball last night:

My favorite:
"He has got to do a better impersonation of an innocent man!"

Re Klinton Kronies ( they are all reportedly very smart ) :
"This crowd is educated beyond their level of intelligence"

Re union backing of campaign finance:
"If lying, cheating and stealing is what it takes to get this guy in office, then lying, cheating and stealing is what we have to do."

I would like to buy INSURANCE for todays flight, please.

After exhaustive bailing yesterday we are pretty much out. It feels a lot safer OUTSIDE looking in. My son says we are in a win win situation. If the market crashes we are vindicated for being the KOOKS that we are. If it rally's we always know y2k is still looming in the future. How can we be wanting the economic world to end just to be right?

Say, were there any WITNESSES on that plane that went down?

Just thought I'd poke my head out and see what's going on. Hmmmmnnnn, everything looks ok. I see a plane buzzing around fairly level. Looks like Mr. Moto has learned how to fly that thing.

Perhaps the end of the world won't come untill tomorrow. Or maybe they've cancelled it till the millenium.

He cashed in his zero coupon bonds. So he's been getting out of equity, out of bonds, and into cash and some physical.

8/22/98 ( Ariz Republic ) Mr Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan just liquidated all his stocks and bonds using the excuse he does not want to have a conflict interest in making decisions for the federal Reserve. This is a RED FLAG signal.

I would sell it before markets close today.

This is not investment advice - I just have a bad feeling about this Friday and afterwards, for a couple months.

http://www.nandotimes.com/newsroom/ntn/politics/090398/politics15_11581.html

Sorry. Gollum Airlines is no more. We sold out. Are now looking for cab companies, Pullman car companies, and shoe stores.

Try Kamikaze Air.

Veteran Gold Stock Specialist/Broker Jack Weber rode the shiny yellow In the mid 1970's from $35/oz to over $700/oz. in January 1980. He is again foaming at the mouth bullish again on the noble metal - especially in light of the loomin MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Gold Specialist Weber observes: " I do believe the Y2K Problem will afford enormous profits to those who hold a substantial percentage of their assets in that truly precious metal."

Furthermore, he says "Banks: "That Year-2000 software bugs could cause
problems in the nation's banking system is hardly in doubt..."

His degree of gold bullishness is only exceeded by his degree of bearishness for common stocks. He asserts "Wall Street: Not even so much as hinting at Y2K, international economist Paul Krugman said in a Reuter's article: "sell US stocks ( they ) really look overvalued right now... Wall Street's bull run is irrational exuberance."

Indeed analyst Weber has the proven critical-eye and the Midas touch. The enlightening study may be read at the following URL. Delete extra "en" letters In word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/weber083198.html

I just KNEW he was going to overcorrect. I'm going back below.

Need recommendation to transfer IRA account from paper into IRA account that is rock solid.

http://www.nandotimes.com/newsroom/ntn/biz/090398/bizm_12130.html

until this afternoon.
-EJ

http://WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-09/03/272l-090398-idx.html

I thought all people like greenspan had their money in blind trusts. I think that is the law

rb

Many facing margin calls are hoping for a recovery today and will be forced to sell to cover margin before days end.

It would be so good if someone could check up on Fred Crooks discovery that he made in February98?

He says that he then saw that there was a dramatic correlation between the Neutron Flux chart on the Russian cosmic ray site & the DOW chart from 1960 to date.

I THINK the URL is www.izmiran.troitsk.ru/cosray/main.htm [takes ages to download]. Could sharefin&JTF@PleaseconfirmURL as I've lost my bookmarks?

Hes pretty excited about this, & says it fixes his 11day delay error that he had before . [ He originally targeted the 17th October 97 & 29th December 97- to find that the dates of 28th Oct & 10th Jan 98 were actually the significant dates].

Apparently, with this new charting comparison, the maximum delay is now down to 3-4 days, &, I quote, in a climacteric phase, it is closer. He has been using 16 other indicators, but says that he is getting just about exact correlations between the DOW, the Cosmic Flux Index & the Magnetic Index .
He anticipates a downturn, which he thinks will last for a decade or longer.

I did tell you chaps about this in February, but no-one seems to have had time to go into the site above to see if this is valid or not. Would any of the expert chartists@Kitco be prepared to go in & check on this?
Thanks & regards

It's gained more than 20% since July 16th and about to make some serious money.

: )

They are playing the USG/IMF like a violin. Their threat to monetize the ruble with AU has all the western parasites scared sh*tless. There is no doubt that they will extort every last $ possible. Then when their economy has completely collapsed they will blame it all on the western capitalist/parasites & the old communists will be back in control ASB.

Forbes Magazine columnists and international economist, Dr. Gary Shilling
foresees continuing ASIAN CONTAGION.

"With or without devaluation in China, with or without meaningful government stimulus and economic revival in Japan, one thing is clear. The economic and financial health of the many developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America that have been infested by the Asian flu has deteriorated significantly. As a result, they will cease borrowing abroad for big national projects and instead scrounge for money to service their immense foreign debts, with or without IMF help."

Europe And Canada Are in the Same Boat

If you think that the Asian crisis is a much bigger problem for the US than other developed countries, think again. True, Asian lands send more of their exports to the US and Japan, but those are the globe's two biggest economies. Other developed countries get similar shares in relation to their GDP. Continental European countries tend to be more closed to Asian imports than the US, but they will end up with more goods coming in as prices drop.

"The world has been on the verge of deflation, and the Asian crisis probably pushed it over the edge. The Asian drama, including Japan and China as key players, is still on stage. Even if the play has reached its low point, it is unlikely to revive fast enough to prevent severe consequences elsewhere. And if a region that accounts for a quarter of the worlds output and trade and a majority of its expected growth is in trouble, the world is in trouble."

For Dr. Shilling's full report see URL below -- it's necessary to delete letters "en" in word "golden" before posting to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/shilling083198.html

has now jumped to $491.50 - gold and copper up too.....

All up, verrry interesting!

ASL taking it on the chin again today. For it to fall this much indicates some type of problem ( unknown at this time ) . Is the Congo strife causing some concern?

what type of rock? Hmmmmmmmm....... lest the rock crumble.....

away!




buy disney............ ( just joking ) ......... ( big smiles ) ............ ( eh Spud? ) ................................NOT.....A..........RECOMMENDATION..................uh uh.

Your 9:09, so far...good call! My hat's off to you.

Seems to be saying something....

Tom

Toa Steel Company is the biggest Japanese manufacturing company to go bankrupt since WWII. On March 31st, the assets of the Company would be liquadated. The bankruptcy reflects the slump in demand for housing materials, which will likey continue into the future. The company had $1.9 billion in debt. Tomorrow, Japan's big steelmakers are scheduled to announce earning. Probable, not going to be a good for the Nikkei.

I think it is sad and a terrifying thought. There should be some basic qualification for the right to vote based on at least some fundamental understanding of how our system works. This same bunch would give priority to an owl over a mans right to earn a living and would gladly sacrifice personal freedoms for the "greater good"...

Monex spot gold up $4.50.

Right on the money!
The Russians are trying to milk the system as long as they can.
It's just a matter of time before the communists/nationalists return to power and than military intervention in ex-republics.
Poland's recent announcement about buying gold AND about gold' importance as nobodys liability is THE message to the IMF and the West from Poland's increasingly pro socialist/communist Sejm ( Congress ) and Russia. Nobody should make the mistake of thinking that the timing of the announcement and the purchase was unrelated to the events in Russia. Russia has very strong influance in Poland and just wait and see the political changes there, when BIG problems hit Eastern Europe.
Surprisingly the markets did not blink. Are they blind?

The shiny yellow is up nearly 2 bucks

From the WSJ--- "In actual dollar terms, investors felt pain- at least on paper. Based on the Wilshire 5000 index, which includes about 7,600 companies, or virtually every publicly traded company with headquarters in the U.S., investors saw their holdings in U.S. companies fall almost $700 billion, or 6.8%, in a single day, to about $9.6T. Wlshire Associates of Los Angeles, which compiles the index, says it is the largest single-day loss ever of market value. From its high on July 17, when its market value was calculated at $12.2 trillion, the Wilshire 5000 now has fallen by $2.6 trillion."

____________________________________________

So I guess with a population of 260 million or so $2.6 billion
would be a paper loss of a thousand dollars per person so a $2.6 trillion dollar loss would be a thousand thousand dollars or one million dollar
paper loss per every man, woman and child in the U.S.

And then with the Federal budget getting towards a couple trillion these days, I guess that would be nearing a million per person in Federal government spending, excluding state and local government amounts. In this five person household I'm grateful for the approximately five million dollars spent by governmental entities on our behalf.

The fall so far in the Dow matches the Nikkei weekly chart almost exactly. The percentage fall in the dow has been even harder.

Because of the global nature of the problem and the added political problems facing King Klinton the fall in the Dow will continue to be faster than the Nikkei's 1990 fall.

Look up the your old Nikkei charts for some scary predictions.

Got Gold!

Whipsaw action. New pilots are like that. Overcorrect, undercorrect, overcorrect. Sure am glad I'm out of the airline business.

Meanwhile back on the street....
Looks like cracks are starting to appear in short country. Gotta sell something to answer the margin calls.

YES!!! GO GOLD! GO SILVER!

Up over 2.30 as of this writing.

http://www.quote.com/layout/index.frames.html?/cgi-bin/jchart-form

Type in XAU.X ( for the newbies to the site ) . By the way, the information is in real time.


Highhopes:

Wish I had info as to why they are down. Volume is way up over yesterday ( currently over 378,000 shares vs. yesterday's 96,200 ) . Seems to be under accumulation. Lot of big trades going through.

THE CANADIAN AND AUSTRALIAN mines have hedged last week when their currencies where down.
Nothins will stop the short squeeze.
Note that the rise in POG is more $ related than quality but the psychology is shifting.

CRB back up over 200.

Looks like Kaplan was right about looking out for price action around 11:30 est.

US Treasuries up but off highs, Dow moves key

*U.S. Treasuries' off highs, keenly aware of stock moves.
*DJIA down 72 pts. Moved south again after pruning losses.
*Growing belief by some that Fed may cut rates before meeting.
*Longs appear to be concentrated at curve's front end.
*2-yr to 30-yr spread at 43 bps versus 40 bps at Wed. close.


REUTERS

Fear of RUSSIAN production disruption is the cause for WTI rise

The PDG & FN that I added near their lows on Mon are now up 7.2% & 7.7% respectively. With the $ weakening & AU entering a seasonally strong period, 300 looks attainable short term. Unless of course, we get screwed again by the CBs/PPT.

Don't think the S&P will decline much near term. Investors are expecting the Fed to bail them out if things get out of hand, & it will. Probably sooner rather than later.

It appears that the technical rally is over. It was rather pathetic. Not
nearly as strong as I had anticipated.

It's full speed ahead for the crash. I am once again fully positioned
in put options on the S&P.

The fact that the Transports, and some other foreign markets have
broken down below Monday's lows indicates the weak nature of
this market. The final confirmation will come when the DJIA close
below 7500.

Margin calls seem to a much greater problem than even I anticipated.
That's especially true for hedge-funds. Many of these funds will
probably have to liquidate everything they own in the next several
days.

The lunar-eclipse arrives this weekend. Anticipate super-large drops
in the DJIA next week and the following week.

I have never been as bearish on stocks as I am at this moment.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Wanna run those numbers past us again? 260 million x 1000 = 260 Billion x 10 = 2.6 Trillion. Its a 10,000 loss per person. Still a big chunk of money.

Anybody wanna guess where gold ends up today? My charts say Dec may stop at 288, but my gut feeling is that we may pass $300US today. 315 is not far behind if this thing gets rolling.

Anybody hear of anything happening particular to gold? Did Madam Cohen tell her lemmings to buy?

http://www.canoe.ca/EdmontonNews/es.es-09-01-0039.html

that the bottoms for gold and silver are now behind us.

Get your stocks while they are hot!!! The XAU will lag the metals a bit, so if you've missed the physical/paper train the equity train is just getting ready to pull out....

US Productivity Weakest in 2 Years
Growth in American workers' productivity slowed in the April through June quarter, posting the smallest gain in nearly two years. Productivity of nonfarm, nonsupervisory workers, measured as output per hour of work, rose at 0.1 percent annual rate, the Labor Department said today. The second quarter weakness followed a 3.5 percent increase in productivity during the first three months of this year.

Retailers Report Weak August Sales
The nation's biggest retailers reported today weak sales for August, with the decline mostly blamed on a late Labor Day holiday but also attributed to signs of slowing consumer spending. It was the first month of 1998 that sales at many stores fell below expectations. That raised concerns about the outlook for the rest of the year, especially during the Christmas season. Those hardest hit by the late Labor Day were those retailers who depend on clothes and accessories for back to school, like Federated Department Stores Inc., Sears, Roebuck & Co., and May Department Stores Co. Faring best were discount retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Dayton Hudson's Target discount stores.

Dec gold bounced off of a couple trendlines at 288.5. It 'should' at least return well into that area. THEN we really see if it can punch up and through! Same with Dec silver at/above 4.98.

RESEARCH ALERT - Stillwater upped to buy
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980902/research_a_30.html

Stillwater Mining signs term sales deals
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980901/stillwater_1.html

Planned to buy some Newmont today. Any other suggestions? Nope, I won't blame you if they don't work out.
-EJ

$300 gold today? Whoa! A gulp and a puff to ya big time if it happens -- and I don't even drink or smoke.

Gold bottomed at $270!!!! BIS BOUGHT IT JUST LIKE ANOTHER SAID IT WOULD!!! NOW WE SHALL ALL SEE IT--EVEN EB!! NO LABOR DAY RALLY THIS YEAR!! NOT EVEN A BOUNCE!!! UH...UH!!

Margin calls are ALWAYS a bigger factor than anyone realizes. There is a domino effect that occurs because the money people think is there never was. See my post of 23:05 last night ( Sept 2 ) for a related discussion.

. . . But I suppose now's as good a time as any to start.

How could I be late? Are they behind us or not?

Lest OIL BID FOR GOLD!!! Ohmy!

EJ -- Surprising given it was a back-to-school month!

XAU up 2.85
HUI up 3.90

GO GOLD! GO SILVER!

easing is that much closer.

Kinross Gold up over 15%
Nem up over 8%

I have never seen an indication htat BIS would buy Gold. Do you have a
reference to that effect? Yahoo reporting that in addition to Poland that
China bought 74 tons. Also, Michael Metz of Oppenheimer states that the
Dollar has peaked and Gold has bottomed. Also, likes energy stocks.

When's the last time you saw THAT happen? Don't get me wrong...I KNOW it happens from time to time, but it certainly isn't par for the course.

There is a change in the wind, my friends...

got gold?

NEW YORK, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were off in
late-morning trading Thursday, with Wall Street expecting key
indices to retest their lows from earlier in the week.
"It's pretty clear that the relief rally is over," said
Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Ladenburg Thalmann.
At 1129 EDT/1529 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
off 97 points at 7686. Earlier, the Dow had shed 151 points,
but it regained some of those losss in volatile trading.

He's Michael Metz!! Heh..heh..heh! Michael. you're welcome to post here anytime!!! DEC. GOLD @$387.50!!!! DUCK AND COVER SHORTS, NOT NECESSARILY IN THAT ORDER!!! Heh..heh..heh!

TABLE-Asset allocation models at top Wall St firms
NEW YORK, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - The following is a table of
recommendations of top Wall Street firms on how clients should
divide their money between assets in a model portfolio:
FIRM STRATEGIST STOCKS BONDS CASH
Lehman Jeffrey Applegate 80 20 0
CSFB Christine Callies 60 30 10
Goldman Abby Cohen 72 25 0*
J.P. Morgan Douglas Cliggott 60 25 15
Merrill Lynch Charles Clough 40 55 5
Warburg Dillon Read Gail Dudack 45 30 25
DLJ Thomas Galvin 75 20 5
Edward Kerschner Painewebber 63 22 15
Salomon Smith Barney John Manley 55 40 5
Elizabeth Mackay Bear Stearns 60 35 5*
Standard & Poor's Sam Stovall 55 35 10
Prudential Greg Smith 55 45 0
AG Edwards & Sons Ray Worseck 60 35 5*
NOTE: *Salomon Smith Barney's John Manley cut stocks to 55
from 60 percent on Thursday and raised cash to five percentfrom none.
*Bear Stearn's Elizabeth Mackay raised stocks to 60 percetn
from 55 percent on Tuesday, September 1. She cut bonds from 40
percent to 35 percent. Cash remains five percent.
*A.G. Edwards & Sons raised stocks in its model to 60 from
55 on Monday, August 31. It cut bonds to 35 percent from 40.
*Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen also recommends that an
additional three percent of assets be allocated tocommodities.
( ( J. Westhoven, Wall Street Desk 212 859 1881 ) ) REUTERS

The Six Nation Natives are the Canadian Armed Forces.
If martial law is required for the Y2K problem they I am sure will be able to control the situation.

I, too, have never seen any indication that the BIS was buying gold. Nor that it would other than some pipe dreams here and there.

I, too, have never seen any indication that the BIS was buying gold. Nor that it would other than some pipe dreams here and there.

It would also appear that corn is now gathering some legs under itself. Short term or otherwise.

Let us see if some resistance points get taken out...Dec gold $290...if it makes that...$295...and, if it makes that, the big one... $300.

One day does not make a "rush to cover".

Tom

Amazon.com's Projected Loss Widens
Shares of Amazon.com are recovering after falling 5 points after BT Alex. Brown changed its revenue projections for FY98 predicting a loss of $1.71 per share, up from $1.58 per share. The widened loss reflects higher expenses resulting from the Junglee and PlanetAll acquisitions.

America West Issues Earnings Warning
Shares of America West Airlines dropped 5 to 14 3/4 or 25% after the company said it does not expect to meet third quarter analysts' revenue forecasts of $0.61 per share. The company blamed protracted and difficult negotiations with teamsters as the reason for the decline. America West said it remains cautiously optimistic that revenue will equal last years earnings of $0.40 per share, 34% below Wall Streets expectations.

With just a little spurt in gold, South Africa's old est gold mine is up nearly 16%. It's now trading at 2 5/16 - Following is its chart, but only shows the close as of yesterday. Pls note it decisively broke both the downtrend and the 50 day M.A.

http://www.dbc.com/http2_data/squote.htx?TICKER=DROOY&TABLES=CHART_EXTEND&SOURCE=core/dbc

The squeeze is on. Gold up close to $7.00

Reported HERE BY A GOOD KITCOITE WITH CONNECTIONS TO BIS!!! TIME FOR ANOTHER'S GREAT GOLD RALLY!!!

XAU up 9%!

I cannot believe how low some of the asks are. This is the kind of day a gold investor waits for. Whe are you selling out so cheap. You are only getting paper in return.

TO AVOID THE GREAT DEFLATIONARY ABYSS!! AG WILL LOWER RATES AND INFLATE THE ALMIGHTY BUCK!! INFLATE OR DIE!!

All: ATT locked me out for 24 hours with no warning, apparently because son was using same account when I was using it. Told him not to, but must have anyway. No messages from ATT -- must communicate with accounts abuse/security, but no one there. Every time I finally get a warm body in any communication with ATT, I ask if this is a real person, but the levels of electronic choices and people before I get to security is staggering -- takes hours. Currently I am using Prodigy -- took 10 minutes to set up after I found a computer with internet access. Shows how vulnerable we are right now, with so many services comming of direct modem links, and going to the Net. Not even y2k and I am getting jerked around.

Gold behavior: The V formation clearly indicates life in the gold stocks, but I would be cautious putting too much of your hard-earned cash into gold equities until the dust settles. Much bad news coming out of Japan -- big companies going backrupt.

Russian Military Placed On
Alert
by William Cooper
Signals major changes in Russian government - coup in the
making?
 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved
CAJI News Service - Exclusive - The official voice of the
Russian government Komsomolskaya Pravda reported this
morning that the Tamanskaya, the Kantemirovskaya, the
Tula Ryazan, and the Tver Divisions, as well as the
Tyoplyistan Brigade have been ordered to "prepare
themselves for extraordinary situations". Most of these
units are stationed in or around Moscow. The paper cited a
"highly positioned source at the Defense Ministry," which
in Russia translates into an official government notification.
We believe that these actions signal that a major
announcement by Russian government officials is
imminent... an announcement that is expected to cause
great civil unrest and possibly even revolution.
Our sources in Moscow report that officers have
disappeared from their normal haunts and off duty enlisted
men are conspicuously absent from their stroll through Red
Square looking for girls. The "rumor" is that all leaves and
passes have been cancelled.
Pravda reported that acting Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev has told President Yeltsin that the troops are
loyal. The paper reports that the Interior Ministry has
been ordered to prepare to "act under extraordinary
circumstances" should civil unrest erupt in Moscow.
Many People believe that a coup is about to take place. The
Russian People have called for a return to communism.
Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov on
Monday appealed to the army and police organizations to
defend against any attempt by Yeltsin to disband the
parliament. In a speech before the Duma, Zyuganov stated,
"I am appealing to all people, especially those who wear a
uniform. The last island of little legality which still exists in
the country is here in the Duma and the Federation
Council. If it is finished and destroyed, then chaos and
gangs will prevail."
According to Intelligence Service operatives in Moscow a
revolution may be in the making. Russian military
personnel have not been paid in many months. Generals are
speaking openly of revolution. The People are not happy
with "democratization" and the Ruble is rejected
everywhere. If you want to purchase something in Russia
today you must have something to barter or American
dollars.
The situation is extremely dangerous. The recent complete
collapse of the Russian economy and political instability in
the halls of the Kremlin indicates a terrible upheaval may
take place in the near future.
Russia has traditionally turned to radical answers to
internal problems. There may be a return to communism
that will totally disrupt the current world power structure.
This is exactly the type situation Anatolia Golytsyn warned
would happen.



Skinny, now that you mention that, "International Forcaster" has a long article on that subject. Just a small quote " It is estimated by the year 2000 "aboriginal" reserve Indians, will own or control 1/3 of the Canadian land mass and be the recipients of $5-$6 billion. This is a disaster for Canada. Aboriginal claims are being used as a basis for the balkanization of Canada. The Indian Act should be repealed including tax exemptions. If Canada is to survive as it is now constituted steps have to be taken now. If they are not taken balkanization will follow and Canada will break up and the provinces will become states of the U.S.

THE EASTER SUNDAY MASSACRE!! ( BC had sex with Monica LEWDwinsky right after going to church with Hillary on Easter Sunday ( and other assorted holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas! ) ! WHOAH!!!!

Don't smoke or imbibe and don't recommend it.
So, lest I become a source of stumbling, perhaps we can move out of the station a little slower. Don't want to burn too much fuel right off. Right here at 290 looks like a good goal for the today

and XAU up nearly 10%... something's afoot

and DoW near day's low - down 144 points

GREAAAAAAT.... Looks like evrything is doing well.
We soon shall not be able to read the price of gold on Kitco chart...
Bart, send on a larger scale, please....

No kiddin! What could it possibly be? Must be them damn goldbugs at work in their subterranean chambers again! Will have to squish them little buggers before they start to crawl out of the woodwork and destroy our little paper party! Heh..heh..heh!

2BR02B - Those are interesting figures, but off by a couple of zeros for your per capita losses. It looks like $10,000 rather than $1,000,000.

This all seems to be about perception of wealth, since the fundamentals are virtually the same. A measure of confidence and optimism ( or lack of them ) . Too bad America cannot bring these sentiments to bear on something more real in this mystery of life.

Golytsyn warned our CIA many years ago that the Soviets will fake an attempt of peaceful intentons while preparing to WAR with the west. Someone posted a site under Fatmia which outline the whole deception. Someone please post the address again.

287.22? Is that right? It looks like the goldbugs are back in the saddle.

THE TUESDAY FINANCIAL POST RELEASED THE INFLATION FIGURES FOR THE COUNTRY OF INDONESIA. THEY ARE AT 77% INFLATION RIGHT NOW, DUE LARGELY IN PART TO THEIR CURRENCY DEVALUATION. THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO EVERY COUNTRY WHOS CURRENCY HAS BEEN OR WILL BE DEVALUED. NO WONDER GOLD IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE.

The Canadian $ is in backwardation and gold almost is.

When platinum and palladium went in to backwardation, there developed a short squeeze. I suspect that the short postion in gold os much lageer than those two metals.

Also, the Vancouver stock market just ticked up.

Did you mention to the guys you sold your airline to about the leaking hydrolic fluid and busted ailerons and elevators? Seems like they're having trouble keeping the plane at elevation.
-EJ

Durban Deep now up more than 20% TODAY... ( DROOY )

and

Randgold & Exploration UP more than 50% since Monday ( up 9.2% today ) ( RANGY )

South African ADR prices at:

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.html?source=core/dbc

think it will go the rest of the day?

PH you said.....

"Date: Tue Sep 01 1998 23:15
PH in LA ( ) ID#225408:
LGB/Liberty/Lurkey/BUGal/Curiouser/etc. "Master"? Coming from you, incompetent of all the above, I take as a complement. Many thanks!!
Try actually reading my posts, sometime, and you will find they are anything but pointless, thoughtless or mindless. But then, weren't you the one who used to find ANOTHER's "riddles" incomprehensible? "


Gee PH..... and this.....from you....a guy who remains a DieHard Clinton supporter! As *Fboy would say...HARHARHARAHARHARHARHARHARHAR!!!!!!!!!!

Your pal,

El Gee Bee

$285.85 POG posted at Coin Universe. Well, I better get back to work. They don't pay me to ride this rollercoaster. URL for Coin Universe is...

http://208.222.111.7/financial/index.html

No, I guess I didn't mention that. Oh, and I'm out of the cab business almost before I got in. After buying a bunch of old wrecks I discovered their catalytic converters were worth more than I had paid for the whole thing. So I stripped them and sold the wrecks to the junk yard.

Now I think maybe either a shoe company or a publisher of pilot's hand books.

Passenger list and any announcement regarding the cause of the NS crash will possibly be informing. USG lowblows are forcing the step up of timetables.

Nearly all gold stocks are up, but take a look at ASHANTI GOLD.
Not impressive, so far.

technicians aaaaagh

don't think about what's happening in the overall picture. if the stupid line crosses at 290, sell!!

Well, go ahead, add some shorts.
Forget the train analogy and the slow start. This sucker is about to go vertical.

we are the patient people...we know well of suffering...and we shall not relent. For we are right. It is due time for a golden reward to be given to those among us that grow the food, make the clothes and laboriously mine good from our earth so that we may live a better time. And the mere talkers among us must be justly rewarded a generous helping of their contribution....more talk...and only talk. They must learn to eat their talk.
But at our table, we shall graciously break bread, humbly served on golden platters.

I tried emailing you and it bounced. I have an email from an Intel man about quake precursors. If you email me, I will cover your concerns, thanx, Charlie

The XAU is topping 57. It's chart is spectacular:

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=5m&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

Gold up nicely @ +5.30. Let's have a $10 day and trample a few shorts in the process. S. Kaplan has been very accurate, I urge all to read his nightly comments. He is of course very bearish on equities.
Go Gold.........

vronsky -- Topping 58!

Question is, is it a good idea to give ANY group control over large areas of land. Alanded aristocracy is formed which naturally creates it's own agenda and has the means to push it, politicaly, socially,economicaly etc. Especially on racial grounds. Balkans is right. A time bomb.
I thought the Canadians had more sense, but they are worse than we are in Alaska but the problem will probably wash out the same way, but not what you think. They will form a Native State out of alsaka and Canada, at least 25% of the combo. Can't wait to do it.
JTF- Reply to your 22:36 the other night...Moral universe, I think your right, needs no religous backing, no true belivers. When we finally realize this reality it will change everything, eliminate a lot of short term opportunistic behavior. " Dreaming Universe" by Wolfe, a UW phisicist covers holograhic considerations of time etc. The moral universe understanding I have came from being a bad boy not a good one. Humbling but not humiliating.

XAU and HUI both up 12.5%

One of the Far-East's most eminent and astutely insightful analysts
resides in Hong Kong -- which financially and geographically speaking might be considered the "Hub" of that theater of economic activity. His point of view is one of BEING ON THE SCENE - actually seeing the events evolve and personally feeling the under-currents.

Mr. "Milhouse" ( his handle ) has recently grown very pessimistic of the dire ramifications of the Asian Contagion. He observes " Until recently I had been very positive regarding the long term outlook for Hong Kong. Despite the Chinese takeover, it had appeared as though the Hong Kong market would remain the freest in the world. It was my opinion that a free market coupled with low tax rates would ensure that Hong Kong would inevitably re-assert itself as one of the world's great economic success stories. However, everything changed on 14th August when the Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced to the world that the government was intervening in the share market as a means of maintaining order in the currency market. This intervention effectively means that the Hong Kong share market is now rigged and therefore unsuitable for long term investment."

Furthermore he comments " In order to defend the currency and its peg to the US Dollar, interest rates have been held at high levels for the past 10 months. High real interest rates have resulted in 60% and 40% falls in the stock and property markets respectively,"

Of paramount import "Since that date the HK government has purchased over HK$100 billion worth of shares, using around 15% of its foreign currency reserves in the process. Intervention by the government reached a crescendo on Friday 28th August as an all time record of HK$79 billion of stock changed hands. Of this HK$79 billion turnover of stock, HK$70 billion was purchased by the government. Despite the government being on the buy side of almost 90% of all transactions ( in terms of dollars ) , the Hang Seng Index fell by 1% on that day."

Mr. Milhouse's prognostication for the entire Orient is indeed grim - which is well detailed at the following URL - it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/milhouse090398.html

Checked the intraday pattern? Spike up, pennant; spike up, pennant. Time for one more spike up, maybe close at 291.5 spot.

Goldmines are also up a bit --some 30%
here is one or two reasons for the rise:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980902/canada_buy_1.html

Not spot, rather Dec. 98

...then margin calls tomorrow ( from Monday's disaster ) will produce our first real market debacle.

Some stocks look like they have been pushed up today for one last bout of insider sales. Intel is a prime example...volume is astronomical on a very weak day, helped along by a final spate of urgent BUY recommends from various Street brokers. Yet, other than that, there is nothing to suggest why its stock has been up today. In answer to an earlier question, I think this company is the best short out there owing to its absurd stock price, the ability to buy puts with relatively little premium ( compared to a YAHOO or AMAZON ) , and its best case equilibrium point of $55 a share.

With respect to any market debacle, various hedge funds will go bankrupt and be compelled to cover their deficits. Since many of these hedge funds are shorting gold, they will be compelled to cover their shorts to generate margin revenue. The short cover should take the metal THROUGH THE ROOF!

I have no doubt that if we get our debacle soon, then we will easily witness a gold price well in excess of $1000 an ounce.

The American Dollar's unusual weakness these past few days reflects international opinion that there are simply way too many of them out there. The world is awash in Dollars. Furthermore, it is a final acknowledgement that America cannot and will not be impervious to the economic calamities raging around the world. No country today is an island unto itself.

If you know of friends or family that have failed to protect themselves with the insurance of hard assets, then I would urge you to call them again and implore them to do so.

A few days ago, my wife and I visited an elderly friend of ours who just returned from the hospital. When we learned that she had no gold in her possession, I gave her an Eagle my wife ALWAYS carries in her purse.

Finally, I will offer up a prayer...a prayer for this country that it will get through tomorrow's hard times in the best spirit possible.

Thanks.

F*

Looks like we are on the way to $325 occasional jolts nothwithstanding. Let me repeat something I said yesterday -- just as gold lead all comodities into the toilet, so will it lead the way back up.

The article on Anatoliy Golytsyn is at:

http://www.fatima.org/perestoi.html

Also more information on Fatima at:

http://www.fatima.org/core.html

The message of Fatima is extremely important for these times. It is well worth the time to research.

I notice Gold is up. A sign of the times?

Dow trans down more points than the industrials. Look for an late-session cave-in.

It happened several times in the past that you may it sound like it was the LAST CALL before an imminent crash scenario by recommending S&P put options and every time, the market shot upwards!

Could it happen again this time?

Why would it be different this time?

Please let us know. Thanks!

Date: Wed Nov 12 1997 20:33
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
A test of the Gray-Monday lows is in progress. Already, many averages have broken down below the lows from that dark and dreary Monday 2 1/2 weeks ago. For example, London's FTSE Index, Japan's Nikkei, Brazil, and the advance-decline line on the NYSE -- have all broken into new-low territory. The rest of the US averages and global averages should break into new-low territory by Monday, if not sooner. Then, all hell will break loose. Be positioned in S&P puts before then. LAST CALL: The lights are being turned off. The intoxicated bulls are being sent home to recover from a nasty hang-over. This one will be a doozy. It will make Gray-Monday look like a picnic.

This is why we want to get barterable 10-grain Gold coins into as many hands as possible - from store clerks like yourself to drinking-buddies, to Joe & Jan wine-cooler who are looking for someplace to put the money they are pulling out of the stock market - we want to offer them GOLD in little, easy to afford pieces of only US$9.95 each {less in volume}.
e-mail Charlie cdevoto@abts.net or swyers@amigo.net

All: Good sign with gold stocks. What concerns me is that gold is not going up anywhere near as fast as gold equities, and only a few days ago gold equities went down faster than anything else.
Yes -- I should have done a little gold equity bottom fishing myself. Must be happy for the moment with my small holdings in silver equities and ABX Jan 99 calls. Yes -- even ABX will go up during a gold tornado if it hits. The Mexican index puts are the stars. Up 400%. All options funny money though -- I am no pro in options.
Please remember -- until gold bullion really shoots up, the gold equities are vulnerable to another crash if the general equities mnarlets fall because of a continuning worldwide financial crisis. Now, if Russia falls into revolution, nothing will stop gold and gold equities.

So what's going on with this little stock? Same thing as ASL?

here are some of todays winners:
http://quote.yahoo.com/c4?o=l:0
http://quote.yahoo.com/c6?o=l:0

looooook at some of the charts

REF: "Servhard ( vronsky ..some of the Canadien.. ) ID#287193:
Goldmines are also up a bit --some 30%
here is one or two reasons for the rise"

Many thx. Here's where you may see charts of TORONTO Gold & Silver Index,
XAU & HUI all on one page. Also included are the Johannesburg Gold Index and Australian Gold Index. It's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word" golden" before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/intra-day.html

the XAU should break its 50 day moving average early next week.

During the depths of despair, everyone prays for a rally so they can have another chance to get out. The rally comes. Do they get out?

4:30 a.m. here.
Funny how I wake up on nights when there is a big move.

Congrats all. You have been minding the shop well.

To all,

I haven't been on in a while. The market has been such a downer. This looks good.

The global economic officials have needed by hook or crook to get the U.S. dollar down to keep the entire system from cracking, IMO. Early this morning, with the dollar having come down so far and gold not having rallied, I began to wonder if we were about to see a total crash.

The turnaround in gold is logical. The weakening dollar is good for the entire system. I think it will buy some time for U.S. equity markets as well.

So, I think the current dip in stocks is a retest of the low from Monday. I look for Monday's low to hold and a rally in gold and gold stocks to continue, while a rally in common stocks begins.

The new downtrend line on the Dow 30 sits at about 8400 and is dropping. We'll have to reassess the situation when/if the Dow 30 reaches that downtrend line.

Gold is breaking downtrend lines this afternoon. We should see a retest of them next week and then, hopefully, a new rally will be confirmed.

The Preacher

IMHO this is those with margin calls waiting for the last moment before their forced to sell. Should be lots of margin calls due today from mondays drop. The fat lady is indeed warming up.

Good warning re: au equities, panic sale margin calls can trash the 'good' equities. We have seen it the last couple of weeks, where on hard down market days au stocks got clobbered even though gold held steady or slightly up.
I warned of this in April, when I bailed on en,abx,ggo, pgu and other juniors, got snivelled at by some of the regulars but, hey I missed some carnage and kept the powder dry. Well except for some idiotic moves I made catching knives in the Canadian junior resource world!!
But then again I bought a few ounces Tuesday!!

Won't believe in this move till weekly close over $300. Kaplans comment yest. about short covering was interesting.

Its a pity...that many goldbugs are not going to make any money on gold shares, even when the POG goes ballistic. Here's why:

Goldbugs have been buying shares in a falling market. All but the traders and short sellers are now losing money. The average investor/goldbug only goes long. Most goldbugs are holding shares bought at higher, and in some cases MUCH higher prices. The thinking goes like this--
1 ) Gonna buy some gold shares. Will make a fortune!!!
2 ) Price declines 10%.
3 ) Oh *#+&!!
4 ) I'll just wait. Prices will go up soon. The guys on Kitco said they would.
5 ) Price declines another 10%.
6 ) *&#@!!!!!
7 ) They couldn't possibly go any lower. Badly oversold. I'm buyin' more!!
8 ) Price declines another 10%
9 ) #*%"*&%#@#&*!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10 ) Jeeez, people are talking about a depression. Maybe I oughta sell!
11 ) POG declines some more.
12 ) I am a waste of fresh air--totally useless--nobody loves me--I'll never be any good at this--coulda bought a new Mercedes with what I've lost--some Kitco guy said to use stop losses--gee, I'm dumb--where's that gun of mine--nah, waste of a good bullet--hey, Veneroso says gold's gonna go up soon--maybe--any day now--what the hell--I better start selling.
13 ) I'll sell a third now before the POG hits 250.
14 ) Jeeez, gold's goin' up!!
15 ) Better sell another third--QUICK!! POG ALWAYS goes down again.
16 ) I was right , it HAS gone down again--just a bit.
17 ) Better sell the lot!!! I've only lost 40%. Coulda been worse. Now I'll just watch those Kitco suckers suffer while the POG tanks. Bustards!!! IF IT WASN'T FOR THEM I NEVER WOULDA BOUGHT GOLD SHARES IN THE FIRST PLACE. It's that Nick@C's fault!! Jeeez, I feel relieved. NO GOLD SHARES AND NO GOLD. Boy am I gonna sleep well tonight!!! Gonna buy Microsoft tomorrow!!

18 ) Jeeez, Yen and Nikkei and gold are soaring!!$$ down!!
19 ) Gold up 20 bucks!! Suckers!! Won't last.
20 ) Who ever heard of Azerbaijan!! What nuclear bombs!!??!!Why is Japan selling $$$??? Why is gold up 50 bucks??
21 ) Gold 450!!!! Jeeeeezzz, if ONLY I had those shares, they woulda been worth--oh *#&@!!
22 ) Gold 600!!!! ABX $125!!! I'M GONNA BUY SOME GOLD SHARES!!!!!!

You've totally exposed my whole trading history!

Nick@C -- HAR!!

As I have said many times , for most gold will never be cheap enough, they will only buy when it is to high.

but you should know, that I like your Site very much and visit it just about every day. It's a very good place to visit!
There is however this one 'Warehouse' I have problems
with. Its all full of stripes and I can not read it, all blurred.
You have a solution for that? I am using Netscape3-Danke schoen!

Comments on Sarnoff's Samurai Strategies would be most appreciated .just received promo material



GO GOLD----YEA

God I love to see it Please read USA GOLD---more to come

Comments on Sarnoff's Samurai Strategies would be most appreciated .just received promo material



GO GOLD----YEA

God I love to see it Please read USA GOLD---more to come

If there were big price moves about three previous trading days ago, margin squaring will indeed be a factor. In the late afternoon a much bigger factor is the day traders.

This morning for instance they all got in on the short side. They've made some money and now they are waiting patiently ( or impatiently - I don't know if a day trader knows how to be patient ) to see if they're going to make some more. So the market is primed for a late afternoon rise as they cover their positions for the evening.

On some days they make so much they don't cover, maybe even increase their position especially if the market continues to decline past about one oclock or so. Eventually when things slow down, they close and the market pops back up.

Date: Thu Dec 04 1997 20:19
Roebear ( Don't forget: ROEBEARS LAST STAND ) ID#403267:
When the last gold bug capitualtes, will they please turn out the lights?

As for me, this is my third repostition and fire all guns salvo. Powders running low but let'em eat CANNISTER. First two engagements July and October we kept nimble and weren't hurt much, this time they stung us though. When ammos out, its sword play and hand to hand, this position will not be given up until they pry it from my cold dead fingers!! STEADY UP THE ABX SMARTLY BOYS, READY, FIRE!



-------------------------------------------------------------------------
REPEAT:

THIS POSITION WILL NOT BE GIVEN UP UNTIL THEY PRY IT FROM MY COLD DEAD FINGERS.

sweat

ref: Servhard ( @vronsky - Thank you very much

Communicator 4.04 is the best browser - bar none

ref: Servhard ( @vronsky - Thank you very much

Communicator 4.04 is the best browser - bar none

Isn't that the psychology of a bull in a bear market?
-EJ

Boing! Boing! Boing!
-EJ

TVX is looking good. SSRIF is up a little but your call is looking better so far. Time will tell.

Please downgrade your site. S*d the graphics,
the news about gold deserves to be disseminated
as widely as possible. Even to people with
Netscape 2.01, like myself.

The crash in the Dow is mirroring the Nikkei crash almost perfectly. The percentage for the Dow has already been larger than the Nikkei for the same time period.

The Dow crash is going to be even harder than the Nikkei. The Nikkei crashed alone. The whole world is crashing now. Also the political and currency problems around the world make this scenario much scarier.

Got Gold!!

Will POG go with it or will it only drag the XAU ( A.K.A. NEM ) a little?

I don't want to put stops too close.

Any suggestions?

Well, LGB, I guess this is it! Time to bid you good-by. I will no longer be reading or responding to your inane and logically deficient posts. As I expected, you have once again found it impossible to actually engage in any meaningful debate whatsoever on any level above name-calling.

Specifically: Anyone who actually has something to say about the President of the United States' policies or political acts, would voice them. But noooooo! Knowing that it is popular these days to throw mud in his direction, you call me his supporter and assume everyone will applaud.

Well, obviously in the circles from where you come, that must work just great. With me, it just points out the weakness of your intellect.

As I said above, I will no longer respond to your stupid remarks. Not because they are in the least bit difficult to discredit. Or because I find them anything but pathetic, rather because it has become a repetitious and boring exercize...exactly what I expected, and expressed to you then, when I bothered to speak in your direction when you appeared here in the first place. You may note that I say "in your direction" rather than "to you". The reason for this intentional choice of phrase is --as I have told you before -- that you do not read and/or understand what others say to you...rather you live trapped inside your own little unoriginal opinions and merely go about braying them unceasingly to the world, as if that fact will make them more believable to yourself. It is sad, actually; and you have my sympathy.

I will leave you now, to post Farfel's essay over on K-1 ( where it belongs and where many will appreciate it ) and then to take off for a good long weekend of sailing. ( Taking the family to Catalina, if you're interested. )

Again: Good-by and good luck!

Well, LGB, I guess this is it! Time to bid you good-by. I will no longer be reading or responding to your inane and logically deficient posts. As I expected, you have once again found it impossible to actually engage in any meaningful debate whatsoever on any level above name-calling.

Specifically: Anyone who actually has something to say about the President of the United States' policies or political acts, would voice them. But noooooo! Knowing that it is popular these days to throw mud in his direction, you call me his supporter and assume everyone will applaud.

Well, obviously in the circles from where you come, that must work just great. With me, it just points out the weakness of your intellect.

As I said above, I will no longer respond to your stupid remarks. Not because they are in the least bit difficult to discredit. Or because I find them anything but pathetic, rather because it has become a repetitious and boring exercize...exactly what I expected, and expressed to you then, when I bothered to speak in your direction when you appeared here in the first place. You may note that I say "in your direction" rather than "to you". The reason for this intentional choice of phrase is --as I have told you before -- that you do not read and/or understand what others say to you...rather you live trapped inside your own little unoriginal opinions and merely go about braying them unceasingly to the world, as if doing so will make them more believable to yourself. It is sad, actually; and you have my sympathy.

I will leave you now, to post Farfel's essay over on K-1 ( where it belongs and where many will appreciate it ) and then to take off for a good long weekend of sailing. ( Taking the family to the island of Catalina, if you're interested. )

Again: Good-by and good luck!

DOW dropping like a rock in final 1/2 hr.

Wall St off lows in afternoon, gold shares
NEW YORK, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks were down
in afternoon trade Thursday but off earlier lows amid ongoing
concerns about the financial health of Asia, Russia and LatinAmerica.
There were a few pockets of strength though. Gold stocks
soared as gold futures shot up and drugs stocks also rallied.
Financials, technology, transportation and small stocks wereall under pressure.
"People are definitely starting to wonder when this is
going to crack in Latin America," said Paul Rich, a trader atBT Brokerage.
REUTERS At 1432 EDT/1832 GMT, the Dow industrials were down 61
points at 7721. The tech-laced Nasdaq composite fell 12 points
to 1581 and the S&P500 lost five to 986.
Decliners outpaced advancers 2-1 on the Big Board. The
Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell 1.33 percent to 348.
"Going into the long weekend, a lot of guys are going to
unwind positions," said Rich. "They are going to sell out early
in the day so we might see a bounce at the end of the day."
The New York Stock Exchange is closed Monday for the U.S.Labor Day holiday.

-EJ

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( HKMA ) now owns 8.9 percent of HSBC,
which entitles it to a position on the board. This stake, built up
by share-buying aimed at propping up the tottering Hang Seng index,
raises the possibility of a conflict of interests, according to a
banking analyst at Merril Lynch, as the HKMA regulates Hong Kong
subsidiaries of HSBC.

I have posted in-depth gold bullion buying and hedging strategies for large and small investors for eight months. I have put my money where my mouth is and my reputation on the line. BUT where are your THOUGHTS or recommendations? I see NONE! Do you have a clue as how to invest in GOLD. What does this forum Gold Disscussion For Investors and Market Analysts mean to you? As your handle implies what are you realistic about? If you need help in formulating an investment portfolio in gold or gold related securities PLEASE ASK! Most here at Kitco are more than willing to give FREE OF CHARGE their thoughts on the market. Why discourage participants from expressing their view points with unwarranted attacks on missed calls from the past? Puetz might of missed the fall in equities by a year BUT at least he was willing to share his ideas with us. THANK YOU PUETZ

The US Senate, by a vote of 90-3, has approved total funding of the IMF.

Keep those printing presses going. There will be nothing left of the US when the smoke clears. We are broke now, how do we fund the entire world?

Japan, China and others will rise out of this mess strong and the US will be destroyed.

IMHO
HighRise

Nick@C - enjoyed your post again. It's worth repeating.
Preacher - welcome back! We missed you.
Golden Cheesehead - where the heck are you? Today we roll out the barrell?

The most efficient web pages are designed around technology which is about two generations old. I rarely visit your GOLD site anymore because the graphics download time is extreme. My computer is 200-MHz 32-MB 28.8-modem, etc. ( I consider this one generation old ) .

Bob in DC

The most efficient web pages are designed around technology which is approximately two generations old. I rarely visit your GOLD site anymore because the graphics download time is extreme. My computer is a 200-MHz 32-MB 28.8-modem unit which I consider one generation old.

Bob in DC

Ahhh PH, the limitations of the medium. Hopefully you'll gain some sense of humor on this relaxing sail to Catalina!

My previous post was meant as a wry, sarcastic, but humor based rebuke. If I wanted to speak seriously of the policies and character of Clinton ( which I have done MANY times over on the REAL forum ) than I would have taken up way too much Kitco bandwidth!

On the REAL forum I try and address REAL issues. This place is such a void that I thought it couldn't hurt to inject a bit o' character and liveliness into it. Oh well......

P.S. I love Catalina. Nice spot, Been there a few times in my younger "SOuthern CA" years and planning to take the wife someday as she's never been.

Flying fish awayyyyyyyyyyyy

LGB

That's 110 points within 15 minutes. They'r doing a good job today.
But it will not help them a lot.

First just want to comment that the C.R.B. Index appears to be making a very bullish reversal this week. This could well be the precursor to healthy rises in all mining shares.

All:
The following was recently posted at K-2. Since it appears to violate none of Bart's guidlines I offer it to you here with full knowledge thatsome among us will probably take exception. However, unless Bart specifically asks me to desist, I will continue in the interest of freedom of expression and intellect ( what other kind of freedom is there? ) to bring them to you. Which, incidentally, will not be until Tuesday or so, as I leave now for a weekend of sailing ( offshore to the island of Catalina ) .

Please watch over and keep everything under control until then!

****************

Date: Thu Sep 03 1998 14:13
farfel ( If Dow Cannot Pull Out of Its Slide Today... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...then margin calls tomorrow ( from Monday's disaster ) will produce our first real market debacle.

Some stocks look like they have been pushed up today for one last bout of insider sales. Intel is a prime example...volume is astronomical on a very weak day, helped along by a final spate of urgent BUY recommends from various Street brokers. Yet, other than that, there is nothing to suggest why its stock has been up today. In answer to an earlier question, I think this company is the best short out there owing to its absurd stock price, the ability to buy puts with relatively little premium ( compared to a YAHOO or AMAZON ) , and its best case equilibrium point of $55 a share.

With respect to any market debacle, various hedge funds will go bankrupt and be compelled to cover their deficits. Since many of these hedge funds are shorting gold, they will be compelled to cover their shorts to generate margin revenue. The short cover should take the metal THROUGH THE ROOF! I have no doubt that if we get our debacle soon, then we will easily witness a gold price well in excess of $1000 an ounce.

The American Dollar's unusual weakness these past few days reflects international opinion that there are simply way too many of them out there. The world is awash in Dollars. Furthermore, it is a final acknowledgement that America cannot and will not be impervious to the economic calamities raging around the world. No country today is an island unto itself.

If you know of friends or family that have failed to protect themselves with the insurance of hard assets, then I would urge you to call them again and implore them to do so. A few days ago, my wife and I visited an elderly friend of ours who just returned from the hospital. When we learned that she had no gold in her possession, I gave her an Eagle my wife ALWAYS carries in her purse.

Finally, I will offer up a prayer...a prayer for this country that it will get through tomorrow's hard times in the best spirit possible.

Thanks.

F*

Math errors-- I only open my yawp to switch feet...

Gold up 5 bucks today!, Oil up $.90 today!, dollar down 4.5% in a week and Tbonds making new highs. Commercials have a record short Tbond position.

Bonds are a great short. Especially with Greenspan likely to ease.
The deflation scenario is going to be severely tested.

Got gold!!

Gold up 5 bucks today!, Oil up $.90 today!, dollar down 4.5% in a week and Tbonds making new highs. Commercials have a record short Tbond position.

Bonds are a great short. Especially with Greenspan likely to ease.
The deflation scenario is going to be severely tested.

Got gold!!

Gold up 5 bucks today!, Oil up $.90 today!, dollar down 4.5% in a week and Tbonds making new highs. Commercials have a record short Tbond position.

Bonds are a great short. Especially with Greenspan likely to ease.
The deflation scenario is going to be severely tested.

Got gold!!

Ruben Is the man, Can he save the markets? Doubt it! The rich will be the BIG losers. Gold has a few more years to fall and all the Pyramid games are long gone.

Scratching my head. With all due respect...HUH?

The triple post was wrong. However Ken Starr's investigation has gone too far. There is a right wing conspiracy that is out to destroy my posts. This has gone on far to long.

Besides everybody does it.

Got Gold!

Why Tiawan put it's patriot missles online ( paranoia or knows something ) ,
is immaterial.....the Japanese are not going loose face..... even if Sarnov is ordered to loose face by our illustrious WJC and to allow Korea's Testing, by missle overflights of Japan.... the Japaneses will do more than sceam bloody murder..... and I think a lil' cruise activity by Sarnov is in order...while he has the launch site clearly in his sites.... this of course is a very agressive act and......GO GOLD....

It doesn't get any more text book than this:
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=week&chart=bar&chart1=ma&volume=y&symbol=drooy

It was up 25% today - has broken downtrend and 50 day Moving Average.

XAU has hit the moving average line, mining stocks still a good buy.

"Money Supply Growth Strong"..."No rate increase" former Fed Govenor, Robert Heller.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&symbol=%24XAU.X

HighRise

Easing is inflationary. It will raise the price of gold. It will weaken the Dollar. Strong gold and a weak dollar hurt bonds.

In 92 with the dollar at multi year lows Greenspan eased. He dared the world to push the dollar lower. It rallied instead.

It all depends on the dollars reaction to the easing. In this case with the dollar topping an easing will hurt the dollar. A weak dollar will encourage foreign selling of bonds.

We watch this new bond market together. Yes.

got gold?

( got ESP? )

http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

My 16:57 referred to your 16:38...

Will the UN will shut down Iraqe Oil sales, raising the price of Oil for those Nations which are struggleing to keep their head above water.

Isn't this asier than a rate decrease in the US.

Oil will go higher taking Gold with it.

HighRise

Simply put---I'm very glad you're back!!!

In the midst of THIS particular week, wouldn't a 99.X point fall on the DOW look far less unsettling that the 100.X that we got? Surely any activity of the PPT would have taken care of that.

Tomorrow we shall see what we shall see, shant we?

got gold?

BTW...tOlerant1 and studiO.r ...best wishes to you and yours! Namaste', G&P to ya, and all that...

got friends?

You've got to be careful how you do it. If the Fed is going to ease rates, you want to be LONG in bonds. Interest on the bonds will offset margin interest so one can use as much leverage as he can get. Rates go down, bonds go up. Take your profits.

Now will come the flight from the dollar and from bonds, AFTER the rate decrease. If you are so inclined take your short position. You will have to provide the interest on the short bonds as well as any margin interest.

Get your timing right and you can make a real bundle on the play.

In the midst of THIS particular week, wouldn't a 99.X point fall on the DOW look far less unsettling that the 100.X that we got? Surely any activity of the PPT would have taken care of that. None today.

Tomorrow we shall see what we shall see, shant we?

got gold?

BTW...tOlerant1 and studiO.r ...best wishes to you and yours! Namaste', G&P to ya, and all that...

got friends?

Collapse of the Russian economy and political instability in

the halls of the Kremlin indicates a terrible upheaval may

take place in the near future.

Russia has traditionally turned to radical answers to

internal problems. There may be a return to communism

that will totally disrupt the current world power structure.

This is exactly the type situation Anatolia Golytsyn warned

would happen.

Couple all this with the President in Moscow, the clamor to

impeach Clinton, the planned attack upon Iraq by the

United States, economic collapse of the major world

markets, a major war looming in the Middle East, the

threat of major terrorist attacks, and we have a possible

scenario for World War III.

American investors are in for a bumpy ride. The

deteriorating situation in Russia is guaranteed to cause

another major plunge of the Dow on the New York Stock

Exchange.





**********************************************************



to the fire: Drooy up 1/2 ( to 2 1/2 ) or 25% today on volume of 750,000 shares which is 6X normal volume. ABX up 1 1/2 to 15 1/4 on volume of 5.13 million shares or 4X normal. Is this the bull we've mortgaged our homes for? Or is it bear market market blip # 9,999,999 in the never ending spiral down for the gold shares?

Double post...I'm shamed right off of this site.

http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/time.htm

Where could I get something like this and how would I know it was real? What do they look like? At around 1/30oz I imagine a litle gold BB. How do I know that the gold grain somone is trying to sell me isn't a lead BB with a gold layer electroplated on? With a coin I can measure it's diameter, thickness, and weight and with half decent equipment decide if the coin is legitimate. With something 30 times smaller, it would either have to be measured with more accurate equipment or be measured statistically with a bunch of others at once wouldn't it?

Are you making them yourself? Is there a regular source for them? Got any suggestions on how to make em if you are making them yourself?

Take a look at this and tell us what you think: http://WWW.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2468

Thanks,

Will

Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.96 ( not a typo ) The 233 day moving average is 28.37

CUT THE damn thing in too, if it's AU, it will cut fairly easy, and if stil in doubt....drop the pieces in a lil' nitric acid.....:- )

Gold ( See the ^XAU ) is warning about the coming two weeks: The XAU
is up 7% today alone.

The way I see this setting up is that if the Starr report comes out on
schedule, assuming no more mysterious deaths, the market will tank to
level's being pointed to by the ^DJT's.

The DJT at 2378 will be a precursor of a crash to 6000 DJI. At this
writing, the DJT's are down more than 3%, to 2620 and this translates to
a following DJI of 6600.

Gold is now up 7.37% - it's the kind of price action that would preceed
a constitutional crisis. Look for more strong movement upward if this
is the case. ( Damn, I sold my 10 XAU-IK's on 9/1 at 2 - they're
approaching 4 now!!! ) .

Crisis mode evolving - gold strength is a bad bad omen for the Bulls and
bouncers.

http://csf.colorado.edu/mail/longwaves/sep98/index.html

CUT THE damn thing in too, if it's AU, it will cut fairly easy, and if still in doubt....drop the pieces in a lil' nitric acid.....:- )

XAU/Spot Ratio = .204 ( not a typo )

Nothing at all wrong with technology, after all I use a puter to communicate world wide now. BUT if a body needs a scope there is always the M1A sniper rifle that will reach out and touch at over 1,000 meters!!! And closein the steel butt plate has saved many more lives than Mattels plastic stock! And for really close in NOTHING beats 12GA OOO BUCK!

and the announcement of the 18Billion to the IMF...what a bunch of slobs and Camdesuss...ugh...parasites one and all...one and all...

Youve been reading too many of Tom Clanceys older novels, your thinking on this is on a par with you DEFCON warning the other day!

Bill and Boris



The Bill and Boris Show
Yuri N. Maltsev

President Bill Clinton went to Russia, a country whose economy is still
crippled by massive state ownership and control, where private property is
not secure, contracts are not enforced, and enterprise is free in name only.
What did he say?

He opened his speech with praise for Stalin's military victories, which
occurred in the midst of the Gulag, led to tens of millions of deaths, and
fastened down Soviet power across the empire. He proceeded to praise
the old regime's "great achievements" in "medicine, science, space flight,"
thereby implicitly praising the mythical glories of communism in words any
of Stalin's successors would have cheered.

What should Russia do now? According to Clinton, the first priority is
enhanced tax collection, as if Russia hadn't had enough of that. "In tough
times," he said "governments need stable revenues to pay their bills, support
salaries, pensions and health care. That requires decisive action to insure
that everyone pays their fair share of taxes."

"It is tempting," Clinton continued, "for everyone to avoid wanting to pay
any taxes. But if everyone will pay their fair share, the share will be modest
and their incomes will be larger over the long run because of the stability
and growth it will bring to this Russian economic system."

He underscored the point again later, and went on to embrace patent laws,
securities regulation, "social spending," a "safety net," and environmental
regulation. There was nary a word for what Russia actually needs: private
property rights.

Will someone tell this president that it is people, not governments, that
create wealth? That Russia has tried government control of the economy
for eighty years and that it produced mass suffering, disease, and death?
That urging the tax police to take a harder line against the exploited people
of Russia is not an act of friendship?

Some American commentators have expressed regret that Clinton went to
Russia with little to no moral credibility. But perhaps this was for the best.
As one Russian woman told a television reporter: "He has his own agenda
in visiting us. I do not think he really cares about anybody, his family
included. All politicians are only interested in power and coercion."

There's truth here, underscored by the unavoidable analogies between the
respective political fortunes of Boris Yeltsin and Clinton. They are heads of
what were once called "superpowers," a laughable term today. Yeltsin is
supported only by those whose checks he signs, and only then in public.
Even aside from his legal troubles, Clinton is under fire the world over for
approving a bombing raid on a pharmaceutical factory in Sudan that
provided half the medicines available in Africa.

Putting aside their attempt to recapture the status that came with power
from days gone by, one wonders what, if anything, these two leaders have
to offer the world. In a world dominated by globalized stock markets,
money markets, non-stop trading, and fast-paced innovations, these two
can only posture like relics from the Cold War.

To be sure, the Russian crisis is real, but the crisis dates not to last month
but to 1917, when the state fastened controls on the economy it has yet to
fully release. For fifteen years, we've been hearing about the Russia's
moves toward a market economy. In reality, there is no private ownership
of land, no legal mechanism or guarantees for the repatriation of profits, and
no legal protection for private property rights. The bribe is still the grease
that makes nearly all economic activity possible.

When Yeltsin and Clinton talk of stability, they mean stability of the state.
When they talk of growth, they mean growth in government revenue. When
they talk of great "achievements" they mean government projects. Clinton
went out on a limb to praise the rise of computer-related industries in the
U.S.. But he failed to mention that his administration is attempting crush the
largest software maker with an antitrust suit.

Meanwhile, the short-term prospects for foreign investment in the Russian
economy remain quite limited. The business climate will remain risky so
long as investors have to worry about economic instability, an unreliable
currency, rampant political conflicts and uncertainty. The quickest path to
economic recovery is to attract foreign investment. But the Russian
government is doing nothing to make that likely in the near term.

The institutions of private property, free contract, freedom of exchange,
freedom of enterprise, and hard money are themselves the great regulative
forces in the economic world. Without these institutions, the economy is
doomed to be vulnerable and inefficient.

The Clinton administration is in no position to preach to the Russian
government, and it's fortunate for Russia that nobody is listening to either
Bill or Boris anyway. As the Russian lady said, governments pursue their
own self interest, which these days is mostly about their own survival. If the
Russian people are to do the same, reform will have to come from the
bottom up.

* * * * *
Yuri N. Maltsev, professor of economics at Carthage College and senior
fellow of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, worked on Russia's economic
reform team in the Gorbachev years.
* * * * *

=from the Ludwig von Mises institute http://www.mises.org/

I believe that today we finally saw big money enter the gold mkt. If Gerorge Soros is playing the metals, and dollar, then I think the gold mkt. is NAB. The small investor will not take long to enter this mkt. He is scared dungless and might be what it takes to get gold over the hump.

Someone was buying gold stocks with both hands today. I feel good!

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 3

-- TOTALS
Gold 1,043,429 + 132,087 troy ounces
Silver 79,461,545 + 587,221 troy ounces
Copper 55,135 - 527 short tons

*********************************************************************
For Gold, of these 132,087 oz's you see, only 7,989 oz's were added
to total "eligible" stock. The rest ( 124,098 ) were added to registered.
*********************************************************************
For Silver, there were 587,221 oz's added to total "eligible" stock.
There was also 125,691 oz's transferred from registered to eligible totals. This means that there are now 712,912 more oz's in eligible
totals from yesterday...
Fox-man

Is a five, 2 times 2, more or less,thank you!

Today, the Dow weakened again, and so did the $US. That is becoming the

normal state of affairs. But something new has been added. Gold rose

$US 5.

That move, to $US 286, simply puts Gold back to about where it was a week

ago, in $US terms. But Gold is NOT back to where it was a week ago in

terms of most other strong currencies, notably the D-Mark and Yen.

While the Dow has weakened, so has the Dollar. With the expectation

growing that the Fed will lower U.S. rates, the "safe haven" stampede

into the U.S. Dollar from the rest of the non-European world shows strong

signs of turning around.

There is no doubt in our mind that the U.S. stock market is in a

confirmed bear. We do not yet have sufficient technical evidence to call

either a top on the $US, or a bottom on Gold, but the evidence is

mounting.

The Privateer has posted up to date charts of the U.S. and Japanese stock

markets, which show a remarkable correlation ever since the June 1998

joint intervention by the Fed and the Bank of Japan to prop up the Yen.

We also have updated our Gold pages, including the very important Gold

charts in "foreign" currencies ( D-Mark, Yen, $A ) .

If Gold gets above $US 290, and/or above $A 500, I will commence to become very interested indeed.Don't have sufficient evidence yet to call a technical bottom - in $US or D-Mark terms. Gold bottomed long ago in $A terms.

PS Watched the Yeltsin/Clinton press conference last night. Ouch! I have seldom seen a performance, from both men, more likely to spook investment markets everywhere. Rubin and Greenspan have their work cut out for them.

I don't know how many here noticed, but oil prices jumped a buck today. The oil service index ( OSX ) soared over 6%. Not as good as the XAU, but a pretty nice rise nonetheless.

The fact that oil and gold both jumped sharply could indicate that the smart money anticipates trouble soon in the Mideast. Many expect Billy to pull an October "surprise" by bombing Iraq. I feel more comfortable when oil and gold move together than when either is moving alone.

Hey great rally in the markets today. But are we just looking at dead cat bounce type of recovery, and lots of resistance between here and $290?

was excellent,if you are right many will be licking their chops topmorrow night.Always appreciate your postings.
Best regards

All: There is only one trading day left before Labor day -- tomorrow -- and the equity markets are clearly not rallying. WJC is in the doghouse with his own party, the world economic situation is extremely shaky, and the US dollar went down 1% today.

Pre-labor day in the US is usually upbeat, so the limp behavior of the markets is very disturbing. So -- playing the odds, I would expect another downswing in the markets next week. Therefore I would suggest to all that you should keep your powder dry -- not too much in gold equities, please -- because this current mini-gold rally may be a brief one. What is far more important than making money in this rally is the realization that the anti-gold tide is receeding.

We are going to have plenty of opportunity for gold investment profits -- soon. But we certainly don't want to get caught in the downdraft of all of those margin calls, etc. that may materialize over the weekend.

US dollar turns the corner....DOW/Dollar versus Gold always has been always will be since dollar is NOT gold.

Sell US toilet paper back into the sewer...GOOOOOOOOGGGGGGGGOLD

SteveS:

I think you are correct about T bonds soon reversing course. Once the G7 starts to ease aggressively investors will again start to worry about potential inflation down the road. Plus the powers that be know that oil prices must climb significantly or the survival of the many US puppet regimes in the Mideast will be threatened.

Gold and oil stocks -- not T bonds -- will be the safe havens in this next market phase.

Short term treasury bills rates recorded new low's of 4.71% .Markets always lead government action because the government only follows the markets. The treasury bill market is saying that the fed will reduce short term rates soon, probably by the end of Sep. A declining stock market in conjunction with falling interest rates and commodities is forecasting very severe deflation. Gold is rising NOT because of future inflation but as an hedge against bankruptcies which will follow the anticipated market crash in Sep. The dollar decline is confirming the coming DEPRESSION. The dollar is declining because the market is perceiving a tremendous slow down ( global depression ) with declining domestic US interest rates. As I have said before, RUNAWAY DEFLATION can't not be altered or stopped by any politician or central banker unless the US government is paying their bills with cash instead of checks. So far they are paying their bilss with checks.This runway deflation will continue until it exhaust itself, and this is a very long term process. Forget about inflation in the US. If the bond market senses any money printing it will collapse and rates will soar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/stock_fund_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/nyse_board_1.html

How did you finally shake free from the "_A" that had been trailing your moniker? Or am I out to lunch?

got kiwis?

Washington Post is apparently going to break the story tomorrow about another intern Clinton had an affair with. Yes, it's true, Clinton was not true to Monica. Hope I didn't shatter anybody's illusions. Yhew doggies, it will be an exciting day tomorrow.

the new rifle had a supposed range of 1000 meters. Have to do more homework on the company. From what I've heard, others have tried this new "cartridge-less" system, to no avail. Just wanted to pass on the info to ya...........

in Korea might do to Au and the DOW.....since it seems to be getting more likely everyday....what with posts on the WWB'S for "BUY" of tons of shell brass from Korea comming in and the Japan thing....:- )

J - a grain is approx 1/480th of a troy ounce, ten grains = 1/48th. Chas and others have been discussing the private minting of these via the New Zealand Mint, etc. 99.95% purity, etc. I think they were calling it the 'micro wink' in honor of EB's Wink Museum in So.Cal., just a flutter of the eye lid, so to speak ;- )

Donald - So what was the high in the DOW/Gold daily? Well, do you think we will have a 'classic' DOW/Gold ratio crash here. My nose has been bleeding for MONTHS up here. Transfusions every day. Ouch.

All - May I suggest that its not the things that you think that get you? In 1927 it was an Austrian Bank bond default which ignited that conflagration ( cascading defaults and margin calls which vacuumed liquidity out of the capital markets, in spite of the earnest attempts by Central Banks to recapitalize the interbank markets ) . That was in a world that was NOT predominated by debt and crazy derivative scams, I might add.

Possibly we are all looking at the visible effect indicators ( market indices ) a bit to closely to see that the ignition ( via currency chaos, bond default, derivatives default and margin calls ) has already been lit. But today EVERYTHING is DEBT and computing and telecommunications technology have created a situation where it will not take years but only days for this bomb to devastate the world financial markets.

Our debt and computer/telecom structures have created a financial nuclear bomb upon which the world depends for its prosperity. Crowd panic will not start a market implosion, it will be the result of it. Each default or margin call is like an atomic fission which releases other calls and defaults. It takes only minutes for these to hit other participants which induces the generation of still more calls and defaults. The 'control rods' were removed from this beast a while ago. Once the initial fissions start, then there is NO escaping the gigantic vaporization which will follow.

We have already seen the ignition. On occation we see the subsequent stages of chain reaction. In a few days we will see the total breakdown of financial markets as all debt organizations and debt instruments vaporize.

In this case I expect that all organizations will resort to self preservation techniques to extend their life. These basicly are variations on 'screw the customer'. In the Mutual Fund Industry this is done by turning off the telephones and then telling people they must write you a letter instructing them to liquidate your accounts. They will then invoke their contractual priveledges to issue you, not a check but, stock certificates which represent the stocks/number of shares you own via the funds you were invested in at time of liquidation.

Do you think not? Read your prospectus' fine print. It is all there. They have told you in advance exactly how they will do you wrong.

I am very concerned that we think settlements will simply always work and 'be there' for us. Do you think that it might be in the realm of possibility that you could pick up the phone to your broker, account rep, market maker and they will not answer or if they do they say that their systems are 'down'? And then you will NEVER get anything out again after that? Do you know what the financial health of your 'partner' is?

May I suggest that now might be a good time to pull some portion of your investments to the center ( your bank account ) , just in case? Things are getting pretty dicey out there. I doubt if anyone would tell us how bad it is until it was to late for us to do anything for ourselves.

Just a few thought.

upload the email addresses of all the US Senate, let me know and I will email it to you as a text file. I, for the life of me, can't get access to that directory - God knows why, but I have tried a million times and it won't work for me.

I guess I was a bad boy at one time and Bart is punishing me.

Middle of the nexus.

Let us watch the overnight markets very carefully. After such a long run of gloom a $5 day in gold seems like the dawn of a new age, but it's not much more than would be generated by a bucnch of paniced short covering.

Short covering does not a sustained bull market make.

After such a long run of "dollar uber alles" seeing the dollar decline for more than one day in a row seems like the end of all the worlds financial woes. So far it's not much more than a mild fluctuation in the currency markets.

A minor fluctuation does not a sustained dollar bear make.

There has been some talk of what happens Monday. Whatever happens it won't happen in US markets. Not until Tuesday. Monday is labor day off.
So tomorrow will be the nexus and Tuesday will be the aftermath.

An M1A is a souped up M14 Rifle with custom stock and scope mounts, you can also get a scope mount for the M1 Garand only real difference between M1 and M14 is the 14 had a 20 round capacity and was .308 cal or 7.62 NATO round rather than more potent 30/06, my preference is the 8 round M1 because too many available rounds make for sloppy shooting and 30/06 is better any day. Agree that a scope is really needed as one gets older ( I am 57 with bifocals these days but can still reach out with an M1 ) Leaving soon for Garmisch will post as soon as I can when I get there. Looks as though Gold MAY get a break soon? HOAH

Deflation has a tendency to seperate people from their money. The US banks and brokerage firms lost $8 B on Russian investments and no one really knows what their exposure is with the rest of thw world. As the Dow declines below 7000 , these loses will multiple many times and I would like to suggest the possibility that some of the big banks in US and Canada, MAY NOT SURVIVE.

I leave the office at 11:30 today and what do I get - only a 25% increase in my gold mining stocks? Is that the best you guys and gals can do?

You're right. Its a very tough ( and high risk ) choice whether or not to buy more gold mining stocks in the face of an upcoming market crash, even after today's impressive rally.

Personally, I'm holding a pat ( and fully hedged ) hand until I see what happens a couple weeks from now - maybe I'll get lucky and get a good entry point.

It sure ain't easy getting rich....regardless of what the dippies say.

well, you can kiss Samsung goodbye --- and with it a large source of the world's DRAM chips. If Japan gets drug in, kiss goodbye Japanese DRAM production as well --

--all of which means means Micron Technologies, as the only remaing US DRAM maker, would go to lunar orbit.

However, the North Koreans can't be that stupid -- no doubt both Japan and South Korea have their own nukes by now ( remember, Japan has +90 tons of plutonium and their own rockets to deliver it. All that crap talk about them being non-nuclear is just that ) .

What can they do if NK flings another test missile overhead? Attempt to shoot it down with a PAC-3 Patriot missile?

Spud, go GOLD! Impeach the known liar Clinton!

I wonder if someone should tell Monica that there is a possibility she was just used.

FWIW: the planet Jupiter will soon be as bright as it's been in some eleven years...this will occur on September 15th...it hasn't been this bright since the FALL OF 1987!

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/TFC/Mavens-Gold.html

http://www.stocksite.com

I think she already knows. Of course, turnabout is fair play. She'll pick up a million or two once she starts writing & talking about their affair. Then Bill will be the doormat. Who says there is no justice?

Kaplan has a piece at his site about the hedge funds having to cover their huge short positions in gold because of margin calls in their stock market positions. Presumably this is pushing up the price of gold.

What happens if these hedge funds, instead of covering their gold short positions just go belly up and walk away from them?

And when banks don't survive, "hedged" positions don't survive.

The Koreans are promising to send another missle over Japan Saturday....
NS=no shit.....and do you think the Japanese are going to loose face and let them.....and/or can we order or make them.....will we not loose face if we don't protect them like we promised too....and hell the Japanese have quit sending them food and the Koreans are dying from hunger....so
what have they got to really loose?..:- ) and why did Tiawan put it's patriots online?....:- )

IMHO is going to freak the socks off all kinds of punters. Whether
they be Dow 'vestors or PM 'vestors. This Korea jam had lots of
arrows pointing towards it over the last 12 months.
If dem SK boys arming up are dey trading gold? What sort-a-gold.?
Hey maybe its the gold them dumb AUssies sold em. Maybe Radio Free
Asia could enlighten us as to whether this was a BIS/US order that
SK needed the gold cause dem arms dealers well sheesh dem boys got
big toes and thats all they trade.
Tank Girl, let us meditate and give the world lots of loving energy.

Got Potassium Iodide?

Spud ; )

They find out you can run, but you can't hide.

Actually, they mostly took on their short positions when gold was higher in price. So they would be covering at a profit albeit a much reduced profit or maybe even on profit if they wait too long.

When you are running with the shorts you have to cover fast when the time comes or else you've been running with the wrong crowd.

It was reported that much of this money was already spent by consumers
using credit. They were spending their gains, but never cashed out of the market. Now they owe much of the evaporated gains.
Not a healthy portent for future consumer spending..............

All the sites for futures prices are locked up, well almost all. The ones I like to use anyway. At Fidelitrade, all, and I mean All the action is on the Buy side from people. Why are these sites locked up hmmmmm suspicious!

It's a small world but I'd hate to have to paint it.

The trouble with having your economy in trouble is it makes your country look weak and your neighbors start taking test jabs.

The trouble with having your president in trouble is it makes your government look weak and your enemies start taking test jabs.

Fail the test jabs and you can think about trouble big time.

FOCUS-Oil gains on Iraq jitters, gold up on dollar

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Oil prices surged Thursday after the chief weapons inspector for the United Nations said Iraq was continuing to obstruct U.N. surveillance efforts, raising the threat of a fresh confrontation over the issue.
 In other commodity markets, precious metals and grains continued to be buoyed by the weakness in the dollar.
 The Commodity Research Bureau index of 17 futures prices ended 2.00 points higher at 201.36, six points above the 21-year lows set earlier this week as stock markets plummeted worldwide on worries about Asia, Russia and deflation.
 At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil prices shot up after Richard Butler, chief of the U.N. Special Commission handling inspections of Iraq's weaponry, said Iraq had placed new curbs this week on U.N. inspectors.
 "We are doing no disarmament work," Butler said.
 Oil traders, nervous about any fresh threats of conflict in the oil-rich Middle East Gulf, pushed prices higher. Oil markets had already posted gains earlier on reports that oil shipments from Russia and Nigeria were moving slower than expected.
 Crude oil for delivery in October closed $1.00 higher at $14.67 a barrel, boosting oil product prices. October gasoline ended 1.91 cents higher at 42.51 cents a gallon and October heating oil 2.55 cents higher at 39.61 cents a gallon.
 Butler, in charge of dismantling Iraq's ballistic, chemical and biological weapons programs, said Iraq was closing off more sites to U.N. inspectors following a declaration last month that it would no longer cooperate with the inspectors.
 The Security Council last month called that Iraqi position "totally unacceptable," but no substantive actions have been taken. The Council last March threatened Iraq with "severest consequences" if it failed to comply with the disarmament agreements which date from the end of the Gulf War in 1991.
 Nervousness over Iraq was a background factor supporting precious metals, but the big factor continued to be weakness in the U.S. dollar. Lower dollar values strengthen foreign investment in dollar-denominated commodities like gold and also lessen incentive for overseas miners to sell ores or metal.
 On its trade weighted index, the U.S. dollar on Thursday had dropped to its lowest level since February.
 Keying off the weakness, gold for December delivery at the COMEX closed $4.90 higher at $288.30 an ounce while silver for December delivery rose 11 cents to end at $4.95 an ounce.
 Analysts said repositioning of big professional investors like hedge funds in major markets was a key to trade. In part, the dollar was being pushed lower by the unwinding of yen-carry trades, where traders had borrowed yen at low interest rates to buy booming U.S. dollars and higher-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds.
 "The volatility in world financial markets in recent weeks has hit funds hard and many of them are moving to raise cash by closing out the few profitable positions they have left -- the yen-carry trade in interest rate markets and short positions in key commodities such as oil and gold," said James Steel, an analyst with commodity broker Refco Inc. in New York.

Gold must close above $303 and the Xau must close above 72.

JP:

After funding the EB wink museum out west, and the new SIG museum in the midwest, I am in need of a new cause which can accept my donations. In the process of getting SIG's semi-eagle this morning I went and bought a load of their larger brethren for myself, and not a moment too soon. With lots of ammo stacked up, I am ready again to make a foolish wager.

Since you appear to be the standard bearer here for deflation, and I find myself in the opposite camp perhaps we can come to a suitable proposition.

Would your version of deflation include large drops in the commodity price indicies? If not, what time series could we examine that would signal the yeah or nay on our respective positions?

Even if you choose not to wager, could you clarify what you mean by deflation in terms of something numerical. It's instructive to hear the other side. Thanks.

Where's Mike Sheller to advise us all a such a serious time such as this! ;- ) ( and Korondy too for that matter!- and, er Kahulik? )
Date: Thu Sep 03 1998 18:45
WDL ( @astrology and the stock market ) ID#235295:
FWIW: the planet Jupiter will soon be as bright as it's been in some eleven
years...this will occur on September 15th...it hasn't been this bright since the FALL
OF 1987!

http://thomas.loc.gov/
http://www.senate.gov/senator/membmail.html
http://www.house.gov:80/MemberWWW.html

it looks to be do for another coat of that blood red brand..... because I do not think NK is going to go to hell in a hand basket.. alone.. and if they are going to hell at all.. they are going to take everyone they can along.... and if pre-empt the damn missle lauch with a cruise... it will sure give them a reason to respond.....:- ) ..... and we really can't let them launch...so now what....?....any ideas.... :- )

but no one wants them. Boo Hoo! :- ) Oh well, I don't blame them, the Congress does what they want regardless of what Americans tell them.
By the way, did you see the page I pointed you to last night? The one about Alliants Technologies?

went undergound and now it looks like the bank is doing the
same. oh my.
if a butterfly wing caressing the air can set the glass beads
cascading, will a million butterfly wings create a million
sets of cascading glass beads or just one Betty Blockbuster
of cascading glass beads.

I hope this may be of help. http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeSPX.htm. The person who runs the site had been accurate to the day on our last major drop in the S&P. His time projections suggest market turns on the dates indicated by using Fibonacci numbers. Have fun with it. Good luck!

"I'm not sure that this would be an appropriate long-term strategy to start borrowing against the future here.... And the practice of using gold sales to replenish the coffers ( is ) a caution flag for me, Hall said, comparing it with a debtor selling land -- it brings a quick profit but a hard asset is gone for good once the sale is made."

Canada reserves plunge after big currency operation

OTTAWA, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - Massive spending by Canada's central bank to defend the Canadian dollar drained nearly $5 billion from the country's foreign reserves in August, leaving it looking to borrow to replenish its stores.
 The Finance Department said on Thursday a record $5.82 billion was spent last month on government operations, mostly market intervention spending. The government offset a bit of the spending by selling some gold and increasing its foreign currency debt, but reserve holdings still dropped $4.56 billion to $17.97 billion, their lowest level since last December.
 The reserves, which provide a cushion in case of extreme exchange rate fluctuations and inspire confidence among international investors, had been climbing steadily at about $175 million a month since 1994.
 Jeoff Hall, a market analyst at Thomson Global Markets in Boston, said he was alarmed by Canada's frantic dip into the fund.
 "To me, what we had in August in terms of the currency phenomenon was not even a rainy day....Yes those were dark clouds ( but ) I don't know that that was worth spending one-fifth of the total reserve portfolio in one month," he said.
 Canada's dollar tracked commodity prices precipitously lower in August, sliding to a record low just above 63 U.S. cents by August 27. The central bank fought a running battle throughout the decline, buying the currency 13 days out of 20 in a largely futile attempt to prop it up. The bank finally resorted to raising interest rates to stem the decline.
 " ( The intervention ) ended up being a rather defensive move on their part, trying to lean against the wind to no avail. At the rate they were going, they'd be out of reserves by the end of the year, and that's alarming," Hall said.
 Jeffrey Cheah, a financial market analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS, said the the central bank's continuous defense of the dollar in August had prepared economists for a dip in the reserves, but the degree of spending surprised many.
 "It certainly was a lot larger than what most people were expecting. It obviously reflects that the Bank of Canada's intervention in August was a lot more aggressive than what most people had expected," Cheah said.
 The Finance Department did not disclose exactly how much of August's $5.82 billion in government spending went to currency intervention, but one official said he expected most commentators who follow the reserve holdings would peg intervention "in the $5 billion range".
 The previous record for spending on government operations was set in September 1992, during the European Rate Mechanism crisis, when Canada spent $2.9 billion and reserves dropped $4.3 billion.
 In its release, Finance pledged to rebuild its stockpile of reserves and position itself to weather future market turmoil.
 As a safeguard against a future run in the currency, Canada said on Wednesday it had extended its $6 billion standby line of credit with international banks.
 Cheah said Canada should have no trouble borrowing in international markets to build the reserve account back up to about $25 billion, or just over 4 percent of GDP.
 "That kind of paper ( Canadian debt issues ) should probably be very well received, just because a lot of people might want to diversify their portfolio and a Canadian Euro market borrowing would be considered a good credit risk," Cheah said.
 But Hall said returning reserves to July's enviable $22.52 billion level will take months, if not years. And he frowned on the two most obvious options for refilling the reserves -- selling gold or borrowing internationally.
 "I'm not sure that this would be an appropriate long-term strategy to start borrowing against the future here.... And the practice of using gold sales to replenish the coffers ( is ) a caution flag for me," Hall said, comparing it with a debtor selling land -- it brings a quick profit but a hard asset is gone for good once the sale is made.
 Canada sold 296,000 ounces of gold in July and August, the first sales from its gold holdings since October 1996, boosting reserves by $99.4 million.
 ( $1 $1.54 Canadian )

Two days after the ides of September.

I do expect a very large drop in commodity prices over the next 2 years especially when unemployment exceeds 10% in the US. To be more specific, I'm forecasting the CRB index to drop to 25---50 sometimes towards the end of 1999 or early 2000.

To reap bigger rewards later - by selling Gold coins
makes me a lot like Kitco Goldbugs - on a smaller scale.
The guys need some upfront marketing and setup capital
to get this 10-grain Gold coin operation rolling.
I'm tossing in an ounce of Gold to help them get started.
I look to getting it back later as 48 10-grain coins
which I will sell for a profit of $2 each {$96/oz}.
As an indication - I just sold two 1/4 oz Gold MLs for $99.95
to two individuals - folks who can't do mail order for tiny
quantities and who can't easily walk in to a volume dealer.

One ounce is a stretch for me but I figure it is worth it.
For some folks one ounce may seem like just a day's income.
We sit on physical while it flounders. Yes it may go up as
it did today - but our retail selling price thus goes up too.
We can't lose unless Gold drops and we are sitting on a lot.
But some of us are already sitting on some -
so we have no where to go but up in this venture.
It sure beats gambling on other futures, options and paper.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?symbols=$indu

Kapex, you may have to type in $indu and change the time to 60

rb

Besides which, WDL, what the hey does the brightness of a single planet have compared to the brilliance of the Stars and the Moon and Sol? ;- )

I did not respond to you last from me because I thought we had ended this some time ago. I left you with the Last Word regarding fumpy last time. I leave you with the Last Word again. I do not think it is appropriate for you to re-post fumpys k2 posts on this forum. He can come back here any time he likes. What is the point of the 404, if people just post for other folks? Regarding your description of LGB on K2, sounds like my complaints the other entity; I could apply your entire post to LGB elsewhere. You are obviously intelligent. I wonder why you dont seem to see this yourself? I used to write all kinds of stuff like the gold post from last year, which you said you liked, until I began to waste time responding to all sorts of gibberish. Im done with it. How bout you?

PS
In ancient times there was no inflation, and gold stayed the same price for centuries. So did the relative value of all commodities. These markets have only been traded as they have for the last 20 years. Since this is the reality today, it would seem that this is the story we should look at. Comparisons to ancient times show a well read author, but have little bearing on a world economy such as this solar system has never seen. Instant information is acted upon instantly. When, in the history of this planet, has there and economy to compare this to? The gathered masses here list daily the gross imbalance of worldwide fiat currencies. Lurky made an excellent point that the perception of wealth, and the use of fiat currencies has spread the wealth to a greater degree than gold ever had, or ever could have. It always ends up in the hands of the few, doesnt it?

We are in uncharted waters and nobody knows whether the water under our keel is deep blue or dangerously close to the shoals. The soundings are taken every few minutes, but the reefs are treacherous in these latitudes. One must compare today with today, for never before today has the world been wrapped in such an interdependent package.

OK

I don't watch the market all day but based upon the highs and lows I would guess that the low for the day on the Dow/Gold Ratio was about 26.53. Tonight we are 17.94% below the July 16th high of 31.82.

I think that the more important statistic is our level tonight in relation to the 233 day moving average. Tonight we are 4.97% below it.

On October 23, 1929, we were 4.77% below the 233, having fallen steadily from November 28, 1928, at a point of 35% above. On October 29, 1929, we closed at -28.38% below the 233.

For this era our high point was August 6, 1997, also at 35% above. We have fallen steadily to a point almost equal to 10/23/29 tonight.

The fall from November of 1928 was caused by a worldwide series of currency failures. In those days the world was on the gold standard and the price was fixed at $20.67. Post WW I inflation had made it impossible for miners to bring up gold at that price and the world powers, not wanting to admit to inflation, refused to adjust the fixed market price. Mines shutting down created a shortage of currency as the law did not allow it to be printed.

We have the same situation today. World powers do not want to admit to the inflation of recent years. They manipulate the price of gold through gold loans and outright sales to create the illusion that the economy is well managed. As in the 20's, miners can not bring it out of the ground for the manipulated "free market" price and they shut down. Under cover of this illusion countries have created excess paper creating the current currency crisis. What we are now seeing is the public disclosure of this illusion as the suspect currencies fail in domino fashion.

Once again, gold is proving the worth of honest money in exactly the same way it has done for for the past 6000 years.

Those guys could've used that weapon - 5.56 / 20mm over/under.
But on the beach those guys were cannon fodder - God what a helluva mess!
To the combat vets out there - what did you think of the movie?
After the movie I walked around in the dark thinking for a while about the worst case scenario of Y2K and Klinton's treasonous stupidity.
Then I read "Tom's Take" in its entirety. His middle of the road stance and the reasons for it helped me feel much better. Maybe we can make it.
But if I start thinking that Old Soldier is right then I find myself
in a burned out shell of a building trying to defend against the
invaders in the streets and coming up the stairs - as in Private Ryan.

http://www.cairns.net.au/%7Esharefin/Markets/Y2k\Toms_Take.html

http://www.atk.com/Business/Defense/Products/Shoulder-fired%20Weapons/oicw.htm

P.S. those who did not see the movie - I will share why I was reluctant to do so. Why go through that hell to save him? Answer: he was the last brother of four - the other three having just been killed in combat.
General Marshall did not want all four brothers to be killed.

There will not be dumping of any commodities in the next 24 months as the glut of the past does not exist. The reality is that Oil, PM's and industrial metals are in short supply. I repeat there will not be any dumping. This advice is fresh and from within the halls of Moscow. Use it if you can to your advantage.
Cheers and have a nice day/night. I am off for a day. JR

http://www.canoe.ca/EdmontonNews/es.es-09-01-0039.html

We should assume that the Canadian defense minister is telling only part of the story. We should also assume that the US defense forces are preparing for as much or more likely worse case scenarios than their Canadian counterparts. Our Dept. of Defense is not saying much.
Mozel may be quite right - for the cities and areas where the military can effectively enforce martial law.

We may be in a deep bloody hell - at least our military is planning for it. Are there helicopter warships and ground support jets Y2K compliant?

JP:

I note that the CRB index closed at 201.36. How about a one ounce golden eagle on the proposition that it hits 220.00 before 182.72?

My 23 yr old son told me last night that I need "professional help" because I am a certified KOOK. Future down DOW days will help, gold up will help. He chided me for wanting the financial world to go to hell just so I can be RIGHT. When he comes home without a job to eat the food in my pantry, sees the value of the gold I made him buy skyrocket, or his mutual funds I encouraged him to sell tank; I shall be vindicated.

So, were there any WITNESSES on board the aiplane that crashed? How about those UN people? Did anyone need to DIE to keep them quiet?

Tell me more about the newest intern.

Go GOLD

JP - Do you mean the same index that is currently at about 200? The one that includes wheat at about $2.50 a bushel, and sugar at about $.08 cents a pound and oil at about $14. a barrel and Silver at $4.80/ounze? Soybeans under $5.50 a bushel and corn at ridiculously low prices and Gold at cost of production? Is this the index that will drop to between 12and1/2% to 25% of its current value based upon its valuation vis a vis the ALMIGHTY American Greenback which is in such short supply world-wide? I generally scoff at the likes of those who indulge in vulgar showmanship such as this on these pages, but if this is indeed what you mean; that all of the above wholesale prices shall be reduced to 1/4 or 1/8 of their current figures in American fiat dollars; then I really pity you your lack of knowledge of financial and historical reality, and in the words of many who have posted here before, ( and yet I never really understood their frustration or motives until this moment ) ,
HAHAAAAAHAAAAAHAAA - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! ROTHFLWTearsCOOMyEyesandSCOOMPants, Crawling on the floor, trying not to gag on the spittle, heading for the door, to call 911, as I can't take it anymore! Thanks for the hoot, old boot!

Seems they are holding nicely, yes? I still cant get over the fact that I think gold is a good buy here, whilst many others, who are goldbugs through and through, are worried about lower prices.

I never seem to be able to get in sync with this place.

Sigh


PS
Nobody seems to have taken my words to heart and responded to my latest treatise on gold. Although a repost from last year, and twice posted since, there has never been a peep from the "store of value" folks. Since gold is mathematically a dismal store of value, I wonder how the many platitudes tossed about regarding this mystical quality ever got started. Did the many who daily parrot the "store of value" thingie never bother to check the math? Did they just accept this as true without even finding out for themselves if it was indeedy true? Are these same people going to continue to repeat these mantras in the face of proof to the contrary? Are goldbugs as interested in honesty and the truth as much as they claim they are? If so, where are the comments on golds store of value? Where are the arguments refuting the facts? Comparisons to bygone eras do not work, for reasons already explained. I bet though, if I were to go through the numbers, my proof would hold for a nearly a century.

I am truly interested in how the figures I posted could be wrong, misguided, or untrue. If they are accepted, the "store of value" argument, as well as the "hedge against inflation" argument, is invalid. If this is the case, it would be the right honorable goldbug thing to do to admit it and move on from here. For it is here where I believe gold is a good buy. Two reasons: 20 years lows. Y2K. Nuff said.


Yes

Welcome back Preacher! You have been missed.

It is remarkable to find in ending bull markets ( beginning bears ) that there are always text book examples of why charting works. The same is true for ending bears ( beginning bulls ) which are somewhere in the far distant future.
Well I gave you GM as a perfect head and shoulders top to short at 65 to 66 with an initial target of 55. Closed today at ~57. This was the belwether telling us of the carnage to come last week.
Now here is another: WMT ( Wal-Mart ) has formed a perfect double top, has penetrated it's 50 day moving average decisively, rallied back to it, and is poised to descend through the 200 day MA. Short at around 60 with an initial target of ~45 ( just below the 200 day MA.
Want more? Do some more checking on your own using the 'net and any charting source ( Yahoo is poor as too much work to get the details ) ; just start with the Dow 30 and look at the 1-Year chart patterns.
Is there anyone here who as yet has not seen the track of the BIG BEAR? All of us following gold should certainly recognize the trail!

Let us watch the gold stocks for confirming patterns before calling a Bull. They will emerge.

D.A. - While I was composing an opus to our strong-minded fellow, I see that on your end you are trying to make a betting friend. ;- )

RJ -- We'll se just what kind of 'store of value' paper is.

Try http://www.iqu.com/chart/
They have 5 ,15, 60 min, daily, weekly, etc. Whats your wave analysis saying?

Hey all. Did you know that tomorrow is trading day 34 since the July 20 peak. This day marked the beginning of the crash in 29 and 87.

Bill Clinton is visiting a school. In one class, he asked the students if anyone can give him an example of a "tragedy".

One little boy stands up and offers that, "If my best friend who lives next door is playing in the street and a car comes by and kills him, that would be a tragedy."

"No", Clinton says, "That would be an ACCIDENT."

A girl raises her hand. "If a school bus carrying fifty children drove off a cliff, killing everyone inside, that would be a tragedy."

"I'm afraid not:, explains Clinton. "That is what we would call a GREAT LOSS."


The room is silent; none of the other children dare volunteer. "What", asks Clinton, "Isn't there anyone here who can give me an example of a tragedy?"

Finally a boy in the back raises his hand. In a timid voice, he says "If an airplane carrying Bill and Hillary Clinton was blown up by a terrorist,
that would be a tragedy."


"Wonderful!" Clinton beams. "Marvelous! And can you tell me WHY that would be a tragedy?"

"Well," says the boy, "because it wouldn't be no accident, and it certainly wouldn't be no great loss!"

Almost every investment has been better than gold in the last 20 years.
Equities up more than a thousand percent.
Even a savings account that kept pace with inflation has outperformed gold
Why do you find it so difficult to admit?
Things are what they are
They are none other

Uh Huh

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/ecuador_go_1.html

IDT ( Kapex ) ID#228128:
Try http://www.iqu.com/chart/

RJ - Buddy-Boy! You Know I love you as a brother, but I cannot allow you to mislead the masses. Especially the Kitco masses. You ask for facts and refutation of your ideas? If at first you want serious debate on your theorums you should at least make sure that the words you publish are at least 95% accurate. These are not: "In ancient times there was no inflation, and gold stayed the same price for centuries. So did the relative value of all commodities. These markets have only been traded as
they have for the last 20 years."
There are AT LEAST two major errors. I expect the corrected paper on my desk by 9:00 A.M E.S.T. tommorrow morning. Prof.Mooney Econ.101 Rm. 24k

Mr.Multiple personality type person...no one cares...sorry!

Having a beer w/out permission....BOOO!

Tom

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/imf_latam__2.html

RJ -- Yup. Equities have been king over the last twenty years. Of course, after inflation and taxes, some of that figure of yours would have to come off the top. Then, there are those peoples who are already incurring the drastic effect of 'papers store of value'. Wonder what they think of their previous confidence in it. Wonder what those who had metals on hand now think of them. Wonder who wound up with the real value after all those years of paper growth. Perhaps the next twenty years won't ever be quite so 'kind' to paper. Not in and of the total usury-based confidence game it has been. The funeral pyre of paper has been lit. As for the gold bottom being in; perhaps. I would be one of those who plays support and resistance, regardless of the chart; stock or commodities, and already have my physical in hand and planted. It does not bother me one way or the other if the bottom is yet in or not, though a very good case may be made that it is.

When faces with facts
You resort to
Swearing and insults
What have I ever said to you
To warrant this type of treatment?

You will again, as you have in the past,
Regret your words on the morrow
For here they will remain, as a stark reminder
To think about what we say
Before we commit it to the page forever
And the publish it to the world

I have always tried to be friendly and courteous to you
I have never received this in return
I don't know what or who you are angry with
But is has nothing to do with me
And I take zero offense

OK

Best Clinton joke I've heard in a-while. Still laughing. Thanks for sharing.


It was a joke......wasn't it??

Gold as a store of value , but for some damned reason ( irrational ) a lot of us think it will go up. Against all odds I have believed this for a year. I haven't got much to back me up but a lot of hope. I think economies need to be measured against something tangible ( especially right now ) . I vote for gold and I have voted with my feet. I still caution all technically minded, feet on the earth, rational people, that the world is not an ordinary place and anything is possible. Even a philandering, sexist,egotistical,harassing ,chauvinist could be voted into the presidency by a majority of females in the U.S. of A.What rational human being could have figured that?

better gauge of gold is to look at it terms of other countrys and currencys....for many years the US has been the only game in town...and would of remained there however thanks to the global village concept America today is facing the real prospect of becoming an also ran ...if you catch my drift

How many gold coins will it cost me for an A+?

( careful dont price yourself out of the market )

Have a beer buddy boy - Some of us likes 'em - but if you can't be just a little more civil, ( the maximum limits were displayed in my post of 19:59 to JP ) , Take your beer and take a hike! BTW - A totally monolithic personality would be a sight for sorry eyes!

Exactly 20 years ago tonight, September 3, 1968, the Dow closed at 525.64 priced in pre-1934 dollars. Tonight it is 557.26. That is an increase of 6.02% over 20 years. Your 1000% is an inflationary illusion. Don't be confused by it.

RJ - That's below you, groveling for marks!- ( said the wicked prof to the freshman student ) .

here...but one thing I have never seen anyone mention...is, that gold was always considered to be in such a ratio to the other elements that make up the stone and dirt we walk upon....when and where it was found, that the day wage a man was worth, was actualy based loosely upon what the day labor for gold was....in other words, the gold miner set the standard for what was considered a living wage... perhaps when we compare the 0% of savings of the American public versus their respective day wage in light of the price of the production of an Oz. of gold..I can tell you right now, nobody is going to flesh out a quarter Oz. of Gold a day, in golds relative abundance to the rest of the earth's minerals, with the barest of essentials..whereas in most paying placer mines, where most or a lot of our gold came from, 1/2 DWT @ cubic yard is/was good ground, and 1/3 of an Oz. per ton, is good for hardrock mines..... just what do you suppose a day wage could or should pay and what do you think gold is really worth, if all I say here is true...because if gold doesn't set these values.... then gold based money would be out of balance with other production ( s ) of essential commodities......and yes..wheat was $3.60 a bushel in the 1860's....:- )

I think gold is a good buy.
I think gold will rise from here
Not much in 98, but watch out in 99
I am one of you guys now

Aren't I?

thoughts:

- The time to buy any investment is when no one else wants it.
- I don't think that anyone can get wealthy with gold, but nothing's better when the economy's in the toilet.
- What's the future of the USA? Simple. Look at Russia. Ten years ago a superpower. Now a crumbling shadow due to a corrupt government. The same economic forces are in the USA. Bureaucratic and corrupt government. Some greedy folks with a lot of money.

compare the dollar which has only existed for such a short period of time to gold which has been around for thousands of years is ridiculous in addition the dollar has zero intrinsic value...gold on the other hand has many...its a mute point people...why not move on...

If you want...spend your time trying to prove if a pound of feathers weighs more than a pound of sand...or even better...reach down...yank your cranks...let off some steam and I am sure the thought will completely leave your thoughts...

Gulp to ya...

Bully Beef -- In order to capture the paper growth of the last twenty years, one will have to take that paper appreciation and transfer it into tangibles that will 'appreciate' relative to that paper in these times at hand. SO many will not ever do it. They will ride their paper wealth into the ground, just as so many in other countries have. If their wealth had always been being put into metals, it would have been there when they needed it. One has to remember that most people are NOT traders, or even cognizant of the simplest investment skills. Most don't even know that there stocks are worth 20% or less than what they were a few weeks ago...

The link iqc.com is the link that I like to use, but it has been locked up. I wanted to look at the wave structure from a 15 and 30 minute chart to better define the hourly wave count. I went and had dinner and I'm back. I would like to give my Elliot Wave take on where we are at present IMHO. Be back in a bit. BTW, i think that the fishwrap...I mean the newspapers accounts last Saturday that GOLD had lost it's store as a safe Haven should make EVERYONE sit up and take notice. This is the kind of thing you WANT to see to confirm that the lows are very very close indeed. I personally think the lows are in. It very well may launch upwards from here and not look back. If my neighbors and friends are any indication, it should be up up and away.

Swearing...not me. You miss-apprehend my THOUGHTS...you just do not have an understanding of history for more than twenty years. Try looking back for three thousand years and maybe, just maybe your thoughts will be challenged.

Over the last twenty years...yes, you have a point...over three thousand years you are just dead wrong. You know this as well as I...Why do you persist in being such an antagonistic BUTT. I know you not and care not to do so. BTW...you know my name too.... So?

Tom

Never heard of a commodity that ever made it to zero value. I even have to pay for DIRT if I need some fill brought in.

Dave - Your thoughts are most welcome, and your ideas are valid, and you are right, I have not seen this argument mentioned in the two years I have been reading and writing on these pages. I know that you posted this last message in haste and I encourage you to expound upon it in a major article to be published on these pages on Saturday or Sunday. Please remember to consider the very important fact that a dollar in the 1800's was very much more valuable than a dollar in 1998. I am serious in wishing you bon chance in this article. If you wish a little support or comraderie in the next few days you may e-mail me at: moonstep@idirect.com
I am being totally serious here, and such an article, if properly done would rate as a Kitco Classic, worthy to be bookmarked by the serious students among us. Cheers!

Call some other old man...boy.

Tom

RJ, maybe you're speaking too plainly about Gold being a good buy here, and about historical "Store of Value" concepts being outdated. If you would just AFFECT a bastardized Eastern linguistic mode, and then couch all your ideas in riddles, I'm quite sure that you will not only be understood, but revered as a diety!

Seriously however, as I mentioned a couple days ago, in 1980 we had a DOW / Gold ratio of One to One. Now it's closer to 28:1. Hard to understand how long term stock haters, Gold lovers can feel they could ever make up the difference, no matter where we go from here.

Also, the folks who are trying to invoke centuries of past "market" history as being as valid / more valid than current market conditions of past 20 years are way off base.

That's like saying that previous cultures methods of medecine ( Blood letting ) , number crunching ( Abbacus ) , transportation ( Donkey's & Carts ) , Knowledge ( scrolls in the hands of a few ) and.....welllll a hundred other things ( you fill in the blanks ) ....are somehow just a valid a model for what happens today as Vaccinations, Airliners, computers, et al.

The technology leaps of the past few decades have changed the world exponentially in virtually every area in orders of magnitude far beyonf what dozens of previuous centuries combined did. Those who don't recognize this, are going to be disappointed if they think we'll be going back to those "Good ole days" of candles, bare susbsisitence living, and dying penniless at a young age.

All that said....Gold is going to rise! I'm going to buy some St. Gaudens soon ( if I can find any in stock at my usual sources! )

LGB

LGB

OkeeDoKee - BOY!

You say that for 20 years those who follow
minimg shares and Gold have suffered.

This is totally wrong. You need to do
your hoome work.

In 1991 I bought a few GOLD stocks. I cashed
out in mid 1995 with profit in all while GOLD
was at $400.00 +.

RYO was purchased at $1.50 a share. I sold at
5.75. Several other mining shares doubled during
that time frame.

Please don't paint us "gold bugs" as ignorant dumb
losers. This agravates the dog sh_t out of me.
You are now pulling the same BS that LGB was/is
famous for.

What are you doing? Whistleing in the dark, when
you know that one day very soon the chickens are
going to come home to roost on the stuff that you
throw out as TRUTH to people who read your posts?

COME ON. Get real. You need too be much more
humble. Then perhaps we can all bow down to your
wisdom.

Try this one: http://www.askresearch.com

The shorts just walking away from their gold positions because of bankruptcy is a good multiple question for DA, RJ and ANOTHER, and some of other knowledgeable poster who frequent Kitco, also some of Vronsky's crew of experts might pitch in on that.
The compounding the answers from all of the above would be enlightening.

have been $13.00 an Oz. in the 1860's :- ) ... and 60 lb. of wheat $3.60??? :- )

Kitcoites...I got the Jupiter information from a periodical I read called Discover Magazine...It's more an astronomy piece than astrology...but it could my fancy because of the 1987 connection.
http://www.discover.com/sept_issue/gthere.html?article=watch.html

Sometimes they get even less than zero. That's when they change their name to "toxic waste" and pay yOU to take it.

It is one thing to make a prediction, it is another to misinform. What passes for knowledge, I can't understand.

Surely you realize that the idea of gold as a store of value is a religion. In thousnds of years no one has EVER been able to refute a religion with numbers.

If so, keep it up...MOM. If not, you may take the HIKE. YES?

Tom

Front - Car - Mr. David - Where are you?
Donald -@20:40 - Right On!
Year 2000 - WRONG! Sometimes - At lowtide - Some Can, Have, and WILL become wealthy by buying Gold and SILVER!
Hi Ho AWAY!

AREN'T YOU LISTENING..........gold was/is the store of labor...nothing else...labor=gold=a living wage= the living wage of a man whatever he is/was doing...... :- )

Last Tuesday, August 25th you made a strong case for gold ( at its nadir ) . I saved it ( reprint below ) to bolster my hope that gold would turn. That was a very fine contribution to this discussion group and I thank you sincerely. If you should care to comment on the $288-290 resistence level you mention below, I'll be all ears. Thanks,

RJ - "I am no longer a gold bear. Hearken ye all and be still in the pews for I am here to testify: Gold will rise. Notmuch beyond 315 - 320 this year, but the lows will hold. CB purchases and producer buybacks of forward sales will support our fair yellow sister. Be warned though, they will sell it into the dirt at $288 - $290 and be content to trade the range for awhile. I will not leverage gold long, and I still hold a few in the money gold shorts with tight stops, but I am delivering lots-o-gold to folks who can't seem to get enough gold when their delivered cost is less
than $300 per ozer. I like it here.
PS
Look for the Russians to dump some gold to support the ruble, perhaps PGMs too, rather than the metals being used as collateral for loans. They need some cash quick. Even if the metal is used to secure credit, the increased liquidity would have bearish implications."

Donald, your 20:40
Thats 30 years ago.

RJ: Really glad you are coming over to the bullish side. I feel more comfortable with you on the same side of the aisle. I gather you feel this is the time to buy the dips.

Gold has done what I had originally thought -- made a marginal new low and rallied strongly. Influenced by people like Glenn and Martin Armstrong I had toyed with the idea of $250 but quicly ret when the dollar began to tank. And powerful Wall Steeters began to argue that gold and commodity prices were too low.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/one_foreca_2.html

This is almost fun! You are about the ONLY person ( aside from our infamous psycho-buddy with nine lives ) that I have inadvertantly PD - Offed?, in about the last year. What kind of beer did you say that you are drinking tonight? Guess I'll have to get me some of that so that we can communicate on the same level - IF you could ever deem to bring yourself down to my slimey level that is. ;- )

During the war of Northern Agression in the 1860's, the price of gold on the market was well over $100 per oz.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980903/insight_do_1.html

I bought Magellan on Monday and Tuesday, but dumped it today. Yes, I too believe we are heading for Bear market madness in the next few months. I don't see any way to escape it, in spite of the strong U.S. economy. Eventually this'll be an excellent buying opportunity. But for now, I'm going to start accumulating some Gold ( already have plenty o'silver )

Now there was a time, when a "Crash" call by Puetz, would have meant certain gains for the short term. Even now I'm tempted to buy on Tuesday due to Puetz's earlier AM reminder of the Eclipse! ( He made me money 3 times last year on such 1 or 2 day plays! )

Now however, too much risk that we can have some serious downside action. My brother, a younger tadpole in the military, has made himself some money in SP Puts this past week. Did right nice for himself! He's younger than I am so he can play derivitives. And he's been stock bearish and playing those Puts for awhile. A few more days like Monday and he just might break even!

LGB

We have all read many reports about the looming Y2K Bug and
corresponding dangers. However, nearly none addresses the
possible dire impact the MILLENNIUM MENACE may have on
the practice of medicine - and in particular YOUR HEALTH and
that of your loved ones. Well, Dr. Hein - a practicing physician -
has generously given us a FREE consultation on the subject.

The eminent Dr. Hein asks some very penetrating questions,
like: " Do pacemakers, for example, have a Y2K connection?"
He further comments, "The answer appears to be "maybe."

His worthy consultation may be read at the following website.
As usual you need delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden"
before pasting the URL to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/hein083198.html

Before everyone gets too excited, you might expect a reflex rally in the $ that could hurt gold, especially if the SPX is getting hammered at the same time.

You have an opportunity to buiy gold shares all the way to mid-October, as gold stocks get taken out with all the rest when a panic ensues.

HB

At times beaver pelts were a store of labor. At other times silver was a store of labor. Today paper is a store of labor. ANYTHING can be used as a store of labor.

What everyone seems to overlook is the true worth of gold.

Some think of it as a trading vehicle, others as a "store of labor" or store of value. Still others as an investment. Surely RJ's numbers and the experience of the past decade and more point out that there have often been far better investments for the times.

Tom

it may well have been during the war....but i know it was damn low, well into the late 1800'S....and i really don't know when it went to $35.00..
perhaps you have those figures somewhere I don't, I just know that at some mines the old reports stated this value well into the late 1800's..
:- )

Yes..Let them come forward.
In America today there is a marked reluctance to accept reality.
There is a big difference between good sound reasons and reasons that sound good.

This is starting to p!$$ me off.

it was not a war of Northern agression, but the war of the politically empowered over the politically un-impowered....Seward and Lincoln had a standing $20.00 gold bounty to any sheriff, for the arrest of any and everyone who had an opinion not consistent with the presidency....and by god they locked up thousands and thounsands and stole their stuff, without ever a warrant issuing, or a trial under the Martial law....
hell they even threatened one preacher with hanging, not for anything he might of said, but for wjhat he would not say.....and that was to speak support for either side..... and most only fought to preserve the Union not for any other reason.....

yes this may all be true.....but gold ratio to it's abundance...has ever proved it to be the one that is uncorruptable....and seemingly unexhaustable....

Gold went even higher after the War when Jay Gould cornered the market. I suppose by the 1890's it had fallen back to the official govt price of $20 and change.

The official price went to $35 in 1934 when FDR like Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini confiscated people's gold.

RJ- I just returned from a trip to our Alaska gold placer. I was gone for a week or so. Did anything happen?

Well, the Dow dropped a little - about a thousand points or so. I saw another bear. Not the small black bear I told you about befor ( that one wasn't carrying a Wall Street Journal ) but a very large Grizzly Bear ( they eat everything, including brokers ) .

The day the market began to tank and gold set its bottom I was mining gold with my crew, proving up our reserves and ignorant of any market activity. Really, we were much more concerned about the Bear. ( Did you ever see a miner dig gold with his bear gun at his side? )

On the way back to civilization ( still north of the Arctic Circle ) , I saw the Bear again. Defiant. Fearless. Not concerned about humans or their stuff.

You may read your charts, day trade your commodities, make some, lose some. But let me tell you, the Bear is here and it is a BIG MEAN ONE.

As the 49'ers used to say "I have seen the elephant."

( Yes you are one of us, we just like to give you a hard time, because while you were so right on the way down we all suffered the conviction of our beliefs. But now, you are with us ............?? Heaven help the short hedge funds! )

Yup - We should never forget that gold mining stocks are STOCKS, and I believe I'm correct in saying that in both the 1929 and 1987 crashes, gold stocks got smashed with all the rest.

Homestake did wonderfully in the 30's, but the returns I have seen ( I think ) were based on a purchase AFTER the '29 crash.

Will the next time be the same? Nobody knows, but the historical odds are not in your favor if you buy them now. And, they didn't do so hot the other day when the DOW dropped by 500 odd points, either.

You said "You are now pulling the same BS that LGB......" What BS is that? Speaking honestly about Gold and the DOW is BS?

Hey Charles, come on now. I KNOW you're a lot more rational and intelligent than to make such hollow arguments. You give anecdotal examples of how it is possible to make money gpoing long in an investment that is crashing in value. Gold stocks have been by far the WORST sector OVERALL for the past 20 years. This is irrefutable. Many of the Gold funds lost 90% of their value over the past few years!

Of course you might might have made money in a crashing investment.....if so that I guess you must be a real genious and able to out guess everyone else who was losing their shirt. You must buy only at short term lows and sell only at short term highs eh? Excellent if you're clever enough to do it, more power to you. I guess some folks claimn they make big bucks going long stocks in a Bear market too.... but the pro's sure don't so they must be the ocassional genious exceptions like yourself.

Now I also gave real world examples...of the DOW vs. Gold, housing vs. Gold, automobiles vs. Gold, Insurance premiums and tax bills vs. Gold, etc etc. from 1980 to today. I chose that start point because that was when I bought a home, a car, and began investing seriosuly. Gold has done horribly by any REASONABLE and objective analysis, OVERALL, during the past 2 decades, for any but the most EXCEPTIONAL Gold investors.

As Gollum so rightly mentioned, it does indeed take someone with blinders on, and some kind of fantasy / religous fervor perspective, to see it any other way.

I have a father in law who was a GoldBug since 1979. The poor guy could have been worth a mill or two now if he'd been invested in mutual funds instead of Gold. But alas, he heavily followed the Puetz's and *F boys of his day..... Granville, Howard Ruff....et all. 2 decades later now, he's lost perhaps 95% of his investment net worth in this marvelous "Store of value" we call Gold.

All is not lost however, I understand he can still get a decent suit at the "Men's Warehouse" when they go on sale.....

LGB

I liked 'em so much just must repeat 'em:
Comments on the Klinton thing from Hardball last night:

My favorite:
"He has got to do a better impersonation of an innocent man!"

Re Klinton Kronies ( they are all reportedly very smart ) :
"This crowd is educated beyond their level of intelligence"

Re union backing of campaign finance:
"If lying, cheating and stealing is what it takes to get this guy in office, then lying,
cheating and stealing is what we have to do."

New one from Hardball tonight:
"This President is to the lie as Mozart is to the concerto".

well that's sounds right, and I live out west and most of what I have looked at for mines was probably after 1860's because Gold was only discovered in I daho in the 1860's....and most of the NW mines came well after the 1860's.... sorry if I was mistaken..as to the time...but the value was damn low for a while.... and I suppose the 1860 wheat would have been high for wheat then.. :- )

is Fascism, Totalitarianism. It says that people don't have the right to self-determination. Your points about Lincoln's power shows him as the tyrant that he was.

Come now Tom, you're not really mad at Mooney. The REAL reason you're PO'd today, is because our precious SSC did almost 2 million shares in volume and STILL didn't budge to the plus side!

It's still sitting at 11/16, my buy in price, but just wait, this nice Gold action has to drag silver higher and then......

LGB

Klinton came to Ireland to play Golf and it is Raining.

The Ten Most Dangerous People on Earth

Memo To: Website Browsers, Fans, Clients
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: September Selections

1. Alan Greenspan: The Federal Reserve Chairman a year ago was on my list of "Ten Most Respected," but how quickly times change. For ten years, 1987-97, Greenspan managed the worlds most important currency by keeping his eye on its gold value. Now it turns out he is only interested in the gold price when it is going up, doing everything he can to stop its rise. When it began falling in late 1996 from its $383 plateau, we thought for sure he would alert the world to the perils of having it fall to a deflationary level, somewhere below $350 an ounce. It is now at $275 and Greenspan acts as if he doesnt know he is the principal author of the worldwide financial collapse now gathering steam. Unless he reverses course pronto, he will go down in history as one of its biggest goats.

Could you tell us where on the globe the Eclispe will be most visible? In this way, we can short the currency of the nation/nations where the eclispe will be seen, and thus assure a huge profit yes?

LGB

Well I happen to in possession of what appears to be a rare collectors book called the American Bastille written by John Marshall, who later was appointed to the supreme court, and he wrote about the martial law
and obtained all kinds of documents and personal histories, at the behest of many friends....he told their stories and how it was.....and he said it got to the point if a union private wanted a farmers horse, he better damn well give it to him, or like as not the farmer would find himself locked up.... and his horse nad home gone too.... :- ) forage you know..take anything for forage, including you..... :- )

There you've sort of hit on it.

There have been many times in history that gold decreased in buying power. Many times that other investments would have been far more profitable.

If one had "stored his labor" in shares of Microsoft instead of ounces of gold twenty years ago he would be far far better off for it today.

But.....he would not have had the insurance, the peace of mind, of knowing that gold does not tarnish or go bankrupt or get overthrown.

Companies and currencies and goverments can get overthrown. If one had had millions of dollars worth of Confederate bank notes in the middle of the deep south before the north won, he would have had nothing afterward. But if it had been in gold.....well, the northern bankers would have welcomed him with open arms.

Paper can burn in fires, rot in floods, be declared worthless, but gold endures without rot or corruption.

Gold may be worth less from time to time, but it will never be worthless. Paper can not make any such claim.

History is more than twenty years and so is the future.

I'll lighten up and smile. Yes. Thanks for the kind reality check.

Tom

Worked fine for me just now. Click on 'live charts' http://www.askresearch.com

well passion, fasion or whatever, may increase the value of somethings and even their abundance....no amount of anything is going to screw with the ratio of gold in it's proportion to the earth's make-up, and/or the labor involved in retrieving it.. that is why it is the best way to determine what a days labor could should be worth....and not one cent more.

In 1860, the northern states were in a big recession, so Lincoln decided to have a war that would spur the northern economies, and at the same time bring the South into the Usury system practised in the North ( preserving the Union ) . In the 1860's, during the war, prices skyrocketed for many things, especially for precious metals and grains. So yes, Wheat was very expensive during that period.

On a side note, it appears that the presence of Jupiter opposite the Sun is causing anxiety and bitterness amongst the people.

Lincoln was not a fascist...he was a commander-in-chief in wartime conditions conducting an often unpopular war. Jefferson Davis suffered similar circumstances. Consider if the South had seceded. The United States and the Confederate States would have continued to fight on and off for the West. The C.S. would have had to end slavery soon after the Civil War ended. The English would have begun to meddle in American affairs ( they almost intervened in the Civil War but J. Davis wouldn't promise to end slavery ) . America would have become a second rate power at best with no choice but to fall in the European orbit. We would not have had the prosperity we do today.

In looking at your XAU/Spot chart, I'm encouraged that the ratio is about 25% below its own 233 moving average. I think this could be considered such a large deviation from norm ( 233MA ) that it could be at least short term bullish. Would you see this in the same way?

The perfect investment is one that costs less when times are good and one has plenty. That is worth more when times are hard and one has want.

Something that decreases in value when it's easy to get a job and you have excess funds to buy it. Something that increase in value when jobs are scarce and sacrifices must be made.

Surely history and RJ's number prove beyond all doubt, that gold is as perfect an investment as one can find.

Has it not grown lower in value over the last twenty years as times have become better and better? Did not his numbers prove that very fact?

Does not history show that in times of war and currency collapse the holders of real assets have always fared the best?

If one had traded and speculated in Microsoft and such and used the proceeds to slowly accumulate gold, would not one be in a far more secure position than those in the equity markets today?

Welcome back Preacher! Also a saw a post by Prometheus a few nights ago. I still doubt Greenspan lowers rates but it does look like all the efforts to lower gold will be partly to blame if a huge Bear Market hits. Wonder what it would be like to be Abbey Cohen these days. I guess the market is even MORE undervalued. Time to change portfolio's to 90% equities, right Abbey?

WALKING ON WATER???--Overnight, a lot of people sent me e-mail in puzzlement over my Wednesday section entitled "ALL IN THE TIMING", in which I not only predicted that gold would rally sharply to $286 spot on Thursday and Friday, but that the key time to watch was 11:30 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday. After gold suddenly spiked up at almost exactly that instant today, these same people figured that I must be supernaturally blessed to have divined the precise minute of the rally, as well as its magnitude. ( Interesting that I can go from a complete idiot to a genius in less than three days. ) It would be more entertaining to attribute this to magical powers, or divine inspiration, and keep my readers in wonderment, but this conclusion was reached in a simple matter. ( I feel like a magician giving away one of my best tricks. ) Most floor traders' greatest fear is having to hold onto positions during a time when there is no trading available, since anything can happen in the world without their being able to act upon it, and the price when the market finally opens can be far above or below the previous closing price, causing their carefully constructed hedge book to go haywire. With the advent of Globex trading, the only time of the week where gold or gold shares cannot be traded is between 4:50 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Friday evening ( Hong Kong still has Saturday morning gold trading ) , and then from 1 a.m. Saturday morning to 6 p.m. Sunday evening ( all times Eastern ) . Therefore, gold traders detest having to hold unhedged positions over a weekend, and absolutely detest having to hold them over an extended weekend such as Labor Day or Thanksgiving. With Labor Day approaching, once the European precious metals markets closed shortly after 11 a.m. Thursday morning ( London being the last to close ) , it was easy to engineer a short squeeze ( i.e., a little coordinated buying to push up the price ) with the huge net short speculator position and no large European matching short sales to be concerned about. With so many traders following their charts, and the key resistance levels sitting just above the London closing price, the trend followers were deluged with buy signals, adding fuel to the rally. Since London closes at 11:00, and it takes about fifteen minutes to coordinate the initial upward push, and another fifteen minutes for the upward price movement to trigger the actual buy orders generated by the buy programs, 11:30 is just about the right time for a spike. On Friday morning the London traders will arrive at work, still heavily short, and desperate to get out before the weekend, while American traders will be even more worried, knowing that the COMEX is closed on Monday while London is open, and anything could happen in the U.K. while they're on the beach. All in all, the perfect situation for something to happen. Looking back on Thanksgiving of 1997, by the way, you will notice that exactly the same situation developed, but in the opposite direction; the gold price was pushed down a mere few minutes before trading closed on Wednesday and many participants were already on the New Jersey Turnpike. As sell stops flooded the thin market, there was nothing to stop the downside deluge through a confused, splintered Thursday market ( closed in the U.S. ) and Friday ( open, but many traders on vacation, allowing those present to hit stops and automated program charting points at will ) . The moral of the story: Know your vacation schedule and take advantage of it. And, no, I won't try walking across the Hudson River to get home. Well, maybe I'll dip my toes in.

GOLD IS A SEA LAMPREY, THE STOCK MARKET, ITS HOST--A sea lamprey is a parasitic eel-like fish that attaches itself to a big, strong, healthy fish. The healthy fish at first tries to fight off the lamprey, but realizing that it cannot, it gives up and acquiesces to having the lamprey along for the ride. The lamprey does not want the big fish to die, since it relies on the fish for nourishment and direction. Therefore, the fish gradually weakens over a very long period of time, but goes through many periods of strengthening. During the times of the fish's strengthening the lamprey draws its nourishment. The sea lamprey is gold, and the fish is the stock market. Gold, starving and desperately weak, has just succesfully grabbed the stock market during a period of the market's complete inattention due to its hypereuphoria. The stock market is thus doomed to gradually weaken, but not gradually and in a straight line. Some days the market will be up; others it will be down. Even on down days there will often be intraday rallies. On days when the stock market weakens, especially on days when it falls sharply, gold also weakens, since it depends on the flow of funds from the stock market for its sustenance; as this flow dries up, gold mining shares decline along with the market. When the market is moving up, gold is able to draw money away from other investments and rally in tandem. Gold will rally more sharply than the stock market during these upward moves, since the market overall is clearly weakening. Investors who want to unload gradually are likely to put sell orders on the stock market just above current levels; as prices rise, they obtain new cash, some of which is used to buy gold or gold mining shares. As other investors see that gold funds are outperforming other funds, they too put in sell orders just above the market, so the next move upward gives them cash, some of which will go into gold mining shares. When the market has a sharp down day, investors become too worried or impatient to get out gradually, and just dump everything, including the gold mining shares. This is an attempt to explain the apparent historical paradox that gold mining shares and the general market usually go up and down together, especially on extended intraday charts, even when the long-term trend over the same number of months ( or years ) is for stocks to decline and gold to rise.

GOVERNMENT GOVERNS BEST WHEN IT GOVERNS LEAST, ARE YOU LISTENING, KUALA LUMPUR?--Though it received little media attention, with financial analysts tripping over themselves to explain minute by minute fluctuations in the Dow, Malaysia's recent economic program is causing worldwide effects. The government of Malaysia has declared that all ringgits, the local currency, must be repatriated within one month or become worthless. During this period, they will be exchangeable for dollars at a rate of 3.8 Ringgits per dollar. The Malaysian government also banned offshore trading of ringgit-denominated securities ( so there, George Soros, or so they think ) and stopped any Malaysian institutions from offering domestic credit facilities to non-resident banks and stockbroking companies, according to Futures World News. The big question is: what is going to happen to all of the dollars in Malaysia if the country has currency controls? According to Leonard Kaplan ( no relation ) , chief bullion dealer with LFG Bullion Services, most of the populace, already distrustful of government intentions, are not going to deposit their dollars in the bank. They're going to buy gold ( and other hard assets ) . In my own opinion, more important than just Malaysia, is what will happen to people in Indonesia, Thailand, Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere ( did someone say China!!! ) , where the governments are not completely democratic and prone to make copycat decisions in a foolish game of follow the leader. These citizens are going to see what happened in Malaysia and figure that there is no point holding on to their own currencies, which could be devalued, declared invalid, or otherwise manipulated at will. A critical mass of these people, also, will buy gold.

I STILL DON'T SEE ANY SHORT COVERING though with today's rally of $4.90, almost surely the open interest decreased ( the numbers are released just before noon on the following day ) . On Tuesday, when gold rose $3.30, COMEX gold open interest rose 1,001 contracts, and on Wednesday, when gold gained $1.20, open interest climbed 1,154 contracts. It is extremely unusual for speculators to add to their short positions on two consecutive up days, indicating a stubborn certainty that they were right to keep selling short ( why not, since virtually all analysts' comments were, if anything, more bearish early Thursday morning than at the beginning of the week ) .

RJ: I agree with several posters on your statement about gold not being a good investment option. You are right that gold is a poor investment option for long periods of time when the 'fiat' currency gurus are in control. Gold is not something that you want when there is no long-term inflation.
I am looking at a graph of the purchasing power of the US dollar, versus gold, from 1792 ( in the USA ) . There is a 45-60 year cycle, deflationary and inflationary in both the US dollar and gold, until about 1920 ( no surprise, since the US dollar was on the gold standard for most of these years ) . This gold/dollar cycle caused a variation invalue of both gold and the US dollar, both of which went up and down together from $0.50 to about $1.20, with 3 well defined complete cycles. But, around 1930 ( as we know ) FDR started the inflation of the US dollar, but that 45-60 year up/down cycle in gold remained. We are apparently now on the downside of one of these gold cycles. Bottom soon I would guess, with next peak about 2010-2015.
But -- what is the problem? The US government/FED, in its infinite wisdom, has decided to inflate the US dollar. If it was worth $1.00 in 1930, it is now worth about $0.09 in 1998. But -- the price of gold has oscillated stably above and below that $1.00 price since 1792 or so. Not any more for the US dollar.
Another way of looking at this is that that $20 gold piece that you undoubtedly have is now worth $280/oz ( spot gold price ) plus whatever numismatic value it has. Now, doing the math, I get: $1.00* ( 20/280 ) or $0.07. Coincidence? When the pruchasing power of gold cycles back up, will the US dollar go with it? I don't think so.
So -- which would you have? The paper dollar, which has been inflated steadily by the FED every time we are threatened by recession, or gold, which is now worth more than ten times the current value of the US dollar? Do you think the FED has stopped inflating the dollar?
Now, you will say, this is meaningless, because wages have spiraled up to meet the dropping value of the dollar. Well this is true, but what if you had just held on to those hard earned gold coins that your grandparents had? Think of how much better off you would be, wealth-wise?
Now if you argue about monetary growth, economic stimuli, monetary velocity, etc., I would agree that the US dollar has advantages over gold. We would not have had as much economic growth as we did over the years if we still had a firmly gold-based currency. But -- this was something like Pandora's box -- we got inflation to go with all the good things. And -- when all of this fiat currency stuff finally implodes, there will be alot of angry people that will want to go back to that old system because it cannot be corrupted -- like the crooked Roman politicians who demanded payment in gold, and paid out in worthless currency. As I'm sure you know, it was the Holy Roman Empire that outlasted Rome by nearly 1000 years, in large part because they did not inflate or otherwise corrupt their currency.
How about gold stocks? Well, as you know very well, for every dollar gold goes up or down, gold stocks go up or down about 3 dollars. I doubled my investment money during that one year gold bull in 1993 just by investing in gold equities.
And, that was despite the fact that we were in the long-term downside part of the gold cycle. I didn't know that at the time. Do now. But I still don't understand how to define the gold cycle better.
One more thing about equities. If you correct the US stock market for the effect of inflation ( real gains in investment ) , you will find that over 100 years or so you have done little better than inflation if you just bought and held.
How does one maximize profits? Buy equities during times when there is little inflation, and gold stocks when there is. Anyone who did this would certainly do better that the buyer and holder of gold equities alone, or general equities alone. Wish I understood this in 1975 when I was still wet behind the ears. I'd be a millionaire now -- probably just from investing in the 1975-1980 gold bull. The profits from the equities markets during the last 20 years would have been extra.

RJ: I agree with several posters on your statement about gold not being a good investment option. You are right that gold is a poor investment option for long periods of time when the 'fiat' currency gurus are in control. Gold is not something that you want when there is no long-term inflation.
I am looking at a graph of the purchasing power of the US dollar, versus gold, from 1792 ( in the USA ) . There is a 45-60 year cycle, deflationary and inflationary in both the US dollar and gold, until about 1920 ( no surprise, since the US dollar was on the gold standard for most of these years ) . This gold/dollar cycle caused a variation invalue of both gold and the US dollar, both of which went up and down together from $0.50 to about $1.20, with 3 well defined complete cycles. But, around 1930 ( as we know ) FDR started the inflation of the US dollar, but that 45-60 year up/down cycle in gold remained. We are apparently now on the downside of one of these gold cycles. Bottom soon I would guess, with next peak about 2010-2015.
But -- what is the problem? The US government/FED, in its infinite wisdom, has decided to inflate the US dollar. If it was worth $1.00 in 1930, it is now worth about $0.09 in 1998. But -- the price of gold has oscillated stably above and below that $1.00 price since 1792 or so. Not any more for the US dollar.
Another way of looking at this is that that $20 gold piece that you undoubtedly have is now worth $280/oz ( spot gold price ) plus whatever numismatic value it has. Now, doing the math, I get: $1.00* ( 20/280 ) or $0.07. Coincidence? When the pruchasing power of gold cycles back up, will the US dollar go with it? I don't think so.
So -- which would you have? The paper dollar, which has been inflated steadily by the FED every time we are threatened by recession, or gold, which is now worth more than ten times the current value of the US dollar? Do you think the FED has stopped inflating the dollar?
Now, you will say, this is meaningless, because wages have spiraled up to meet the dropping value of the dollar. Well this is true, but what if you had just held on to those hard earned gold coins that your grandparents had? Think of how much better off you would be, wealth-wise?
Now if you argue about monetary growth, economic stimuli, monetary velocity, etc., I would agree that the US dollar has advantages over gold. We would not have had as much economic growth as we did over the years if we still had a firmly gold-based currency. But -- this was something like Pandora's box -- we got inflation to go with all the good things. And -- when all of this fiat currency stuff finally implodes, there will be alot of angry people that will want to go back to that old system because it cannot be corrupted -- like the crooked Roman politicians who demanded payment in gold, and paid out in worthless currency. As I'm sure you know, it was the Holy Roman Empire that outlasted Rome by nearly 1000 years, in large part because they did not inflate or otherwise corrupt their currency.
How about gold stocks? Well, as you know very well, for every dollar gold goes up or down, gold stocks go up or down about 3 dollars. I doubled my investment money during that one year gold bull in 1993 just by investing in gold equities.
And, that was despite the fact that we were in the long-term downside part of the gold cycle. I didn't know that at the time. Do now. But I still don't understand how to define the gold cycle better.
One more thing about equities. If you correct the US stock market for the effect of inflation ( real gains in investment ) , you will find that over 100 years or so you have done little better than inflation if you just bought and held.
How does one maximize profits? Buy equities during times when there is little inflation, and gold stocks when there is. Anyone who did this would certainly do better that the buyer and holder of gold equities alone, or general equities alone. Wish I understood this in 1975 when I was still wet behind the ears. I'd be a millionaire now -- probably just from investing in the 1975-1980 gold bull. The profits from the equities markets would have been extra.

I dont get it
Donald compares 1968 markets
With 1934 dollars?
And then says
The Dow is 557 tonight?
Non sequitur

Lets refer to the numbers

Inflation has averaged 5.3 per year for 30 years
One 1968 dollar is worth 20 cents today.

Dow 9/3/68 ( Don's number ) 525
Dow 9/3/98 ( CNNs number ) 7682 - 525 = 7157 = 1363% profit
1363% profit x .2 = 272.6% adjusted profit
272.6% divided by 30 years
Is 9.08% annual profit after inflation

Gold 1968 ( traded 35 to 41 so I chose the middle ) $38
Gold today 285 - 38 = 247 = 650% profit
650% profit x.2 = 130% adjusted profit
130% divided by 30 years
Is 4.33% annual profit after inflation


9.95 divided by 4.33 = 2.09

The Dow out performed gold by 209% in thirty years

This is using $38 gold folks
I dont think it gets much cheaper than that
Using an historical low price in gold
A Dow 20% below its high
And understated government CPI figures
To give the greatest benefit possible
To Donald specious argument
It still doesnt add up to anything but less

Anybody else want to work the numbers?

Lincoln was lawyer and he suspended the rule of law, and might became right....and those like minded with Lincoln, like his cunning consort
Seward, proceeded to lock up all opposition to the war and keep them locked up by suspending the Habeeasa Corpus act..... no crime had to proved or even pressed... and when he was done....there was no opposition... and if there was any... surviors of hos oppression theyu where homeless and impoverished....and never a threat....and if any were oever paroled they had signed BLANK confessions in order to be paroled..

Hi Bud!
I wasn't referring to F* earlier on - but to a different cat who was on occasion MUCH more obnoxious. Also I was not disagreeing with you and agreeing with RJ - In fact I totaly agree with you - HHistory is NOT the last 20 years. Last but not least, I only called you boy because you asked me to. Check the posts. Cheers. ( and, oh yeah, I didn't really ask to be called MOM. ;- ) )

Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia. Hours later-Swiss Air ruled same as accident-
no black box, physical evidence etc. Sounds like lazy Police Personel
I've encountered-Reported: Went there-Found nothing-"CASE CONCLUDED"
Quick write off. Minor Break & Enters certainly get much more attention.

Tom

Ill respond to the rest later
There is a way cool thunderstorm
Coming in off the ocean, from the south
I am going to the beach to watch it

Away..togetlightninginmyshorts

RJ - The fallacy of your argument is that you take the gold price in 1968 , when it was also at an historical low. It was also at this price in 1938. How about readjusting your figures based on the 1938 price of Gold and the Dow? Ciao Baby!

All is fair in love and war. If you're gonna fight a war, hit 'em hard and hit 'em fast. Read the rules later. But you better know what you're doing first ( unlike Clinton ) .

Take care. If I do need a mom some day...maybe you could sub? : )

Tom

http://www.nandotimes.com/nt/images/swissair.html

Alas if only that were true. But the amount of labor required to get gold from the ground is much less than the days when one went at it with pick and shovel and days of backbreaking work. Should I value my labor spent as worth less because someone today can accomplish the same thing more easily using better technology.

The ease of gaining gold through slight of hand or manipulation of prices in the market place can bring many ounces in a few minutes of cunning for those in the right places. Should I devalue the worth of my labor because of the immorality of others?

There is no "true store of labor". Neither gold nor paper nor worldly goods of any kind. Not until the day all politicians care only about their fellow man, all lawyers are honest, all bankers are paragons of future, and all men are as good as thier word.

The China Daily published a special report from the Chinese state planning commission that outlines a plan to reallocate foreign reserves ratios away from U.S. dollar holdings. It recommends reducing U.S. dollars as a percentage of reserves from 60 percent to 40 percent. This suggests U.S. dollar sales of $28 billion. The report went on to say that China should prepare for a weaker U.S. dollar on grounds that the U.S. ( as a net debtor ) consumption boom has created a bubble.



Now whether this is the Chinese trying to help their own cause and talk up the yen to avoid devaluation or whether their position is for real, I don't know. However, if you combine this with the dislocation of hedge fund unwinding, their positions set off a huge decline in the dollar. The bonfire of the currencies continues, with the dollar being today's victim.

Gold has gone up 8 bucks in a few days. There will be talk of confiscation on Kitco.

However, if the trend of the 3rd wave extending on every wave so far continues ( and there's no reason to think that it won't ) then the wave count could easily be counted as wave ( 1 ) complete on 8-11, then an a-b-c, for a wave ( 2 ) , then this decline that completed on Tuesday, counted as a -1- of the ( 3rd ) and this countertrend of the last few days an a-b-c for a -2- of the ( 3rd ) . This would mean that the 3rd of the 3rd is upon us and will unfold within the next 5 days or so if not starting tomorrow.
If it is still in a corrective wave then the count is more likely to be that the 3rd is complete and the a-b-c-d-e, 4th held in the vicinity of the 4th of a lesser degree. Then we will still go down hard for the 5th wave to a new low. I have a feeling that the suprises will be the more negative count and we will all have our breath taken away by the magnitude of the drop.IMHO. The suprise will come because we will not know if it is a 5th completing or the 3rd of the 3rd until we go way below 7000 and keep droping because both should make new lows.

Gold has gone up 8 bucks in a few days. There will be talk of confiscation on Kitco.

D'Accord, mon ami!

A short list of some of Clinton's ex-friends & associates.....

HOW WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE BILL CLINTON'S FRIEND ??

The following is a list of dead people connected with
Bill Clinton:

James McDougal - Clinton's convicted Whitewater
partner died of an apparent heart attack, while in
solitary confinement. He was a key witness in Ken
Starr's investigation.

Mary Mahoney - A former White House intern was
murdered July 1997 at a Starbucks Coffee Shop in
Georgetown. The murder happened just after she
was to go public with her story of sexual harassment
in the White House.

Vince Foster - Former white House counselor, and
colleague of Hillary Clinton at Little Rock's Rose
law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the
head, ruled a suicide.

Ron Brown - Secretary of Commerce and former DNC
Chairman. Reported to have died by impact in a plane
crash. A pathologist close to the investigation reported
that there was a hole in the top of Brown's skull
resembling a gunshot wound. At the time of his death
Brown was being investigated, and spoke publicly of
his willingness to cut a deal with prosecutors.

C. Victor Raiser II - & - Montgomery raiser Major
players in the Clinton fund raising organization died
in a private plane crash in July 1992.

Paul Tulley - Democratic National Committee Political
Director found dead in a hotel room in Little Rock,
September 1992. Described by Clinton as a " Dear
friend and trusted advisor".

Ed Willey - Clinton fund raiser, found dead November
1993 deep in the woods in Virginia of a gunshot wound
to the head. Ruled a suicide. Ed Willey died on the same
day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped
her in the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey
was involved in several Clinton fund raising events.

Jerry Parks - Head of Clinton's gubernatorial security
team in Little Rock. Gunned down in his car at a deserted
intersection outside Little Rock. Park's son said his
father was building a dossier on Clinton. He allegedly
threatened to reveal this information. After he died the files
were mysteriously removed from his house.

James Bunch - Died from a gunshot suicide. It was reported
that he had a "Black Book" of people containing names of
influential people who visited prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas.

James Wilson - Was found dead in May 1993 from an
apparent hanging suicide. He was reported to have ties to
Whitewater.

Kathy Ferguson - Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny
Ferguson died in May 1994 was found dead in her living
room with a gunshot to her head. It was ruled a suicide
even though there were several packed suitcases, as
if she was going somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a
codefendant along with Bill Clinton in the Paula Jones
lawsuit. Kathy Ferguson was a possible corroborating
witness for Paula Jones.

Bill Shelton - Arkansas State Trooper and fiancee of
Kathy Ferguson. Critical of the suicide ruling of his
fiancee, he was found dead in June, 1994 of a gunshot
wound also ruled a suicide at the gravesite of his fiancee.

Gandy Baugh - Attorney for Clinton friend Dan Lassater
died by jumping out a window of a tall building January,
1994. His client was a convicted drug distributor.

Florence Martin - Accountant subcontractor for the
CIA related to the Barry Seal Mena Airport drug
smuggling case. Died of three gunshot wounds.

Suzanne Coleman - Reportedly had an affair with
Clinton when he was Arkansas Attorney General. Died
of a gunshot wound to the back of the head, ruled a
suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.

Paula Grober - Clinton's speech interpreter for the deaf
from 1978 until her death December 9, 1992. She died
in a one car accident.

Danny Casolaro - Investigative reporter. Investigating
Mena Airport and Arkansas Development Finance
Authority. He slit his wrists, apparent suicide in the
middle of his investigation.

Paul Wilcher - Attorney investigating corruption at
Mena Airport with Casolaro and the 1980 "October
Surprise" was found deadon a toilet June 22, 1993 in
his Washington DC apartment. Had delivered a report
to Janet Reno 3 weeks before his death.

Jon Parnell Walker - Whitewater investigator for Resolution
Trust Corp. Jumped to his death from his Arlington, Virginia
apartment balcony August 15, 1993 Was investigating
Morgan Guarantee scandal.

Barbara Wise - Commerce Department staffer. Worked
closely with Ron Brown and John Huang. Cause of death
unknown. Died November 29, 1996. Her bruised nude
body was found locked in her office at the Department of Commerce.

Charles Meissner - Assistant Secretary of Commerce who gave
John Huang special security clearance, died shortly thereafter
in a small plane crash.

Dr. Stanley Heard - Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health
Care Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in
a small plane crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton's
advisory council personally treated Clinton's mother, stepfather and
brother.

Barry Seal - Drug running pilot out of Mena Arkansas, Death was
no accident.

Johnny Lawhorn Jr. - Mechanic, found a check made out to Clinton
in the trunk of a car left in his repair shop. Died when his car hit a
utility pole.

Stanley Huggins - Suicide. Investigated Madison Guarantee. His report
was never released.

Hershell Friday - Attorney and Clinton fund raiser died March 1, 1994
when his plane exploded.

Kevin Ives & Don Henry - Known as "The boys on the track" case.
Reports say the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena Arkansas
airport drug operation. Controversial case whereinitial report of
death
was due to falling asleep on railroad track. Later reports claim the 2
boys had been slain before being placed on the tracks. Many linked
to the case died before their testimony could come before a Grand
Jury.

THE FOLLOWING SIX PERSONS HAD INFORMATION ON THE
IVES / HENRY CASE:

Keith Coney - Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a
truck
July, 1988

Keith McMaskle - Died stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988

Gregory Collins - Died from a gunshot wound January 1989.

Jeff Rhodes - He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump
in
April 1989.

James Milan - Found decapitated. Coroner ruled death due to natural
causes.

Jordan Kettleson - Was found shot to death in the front seat of his
pickup
truck in June 1990.

Richard Winters - Was a suspect in the Ives / Henry deaths. Was killed
in a setup robbery July 1989

THE FOLLOWING CLINTON BODYGUARDS ARE DEAD

Major William S. Barkley Jr.

Captain Scott J. Reynolds

Sgt. Brian Hanley

Sgt. Tim Sabel

Major General William Robertson

Col. William Densberger

Col. Robert Kelly

Spec. Gary Rhodes

RJ: I agree with you that gold is a lousy 'buy and hold' investment option. But -- so are general equities. There are times when equities are the best choice, and times when gold/gold equitiea are the best choice. Gold is a poor investment option for long periods of time when the 'fiat' currency gurus are in control, and inflation is perceived as minimal. Gold is a good investment option during ( generally brief ) times of inflation ( and certain other times which you know much better than I ) .

I am looking at a graph of the purchasing power of the US dollar, versus gold, from 1792 ( in the USA ) . There is a 45-60 year cycle, deflationary and inflationary in both the US dollar and gold, until about 1920 ( no surprise, since the US dollar was on the gold standard for most of these years ) . This gold/dollar cycle caused a variation invalue of both gold and the US dollar, both of which went up and down together from $0.50 to about $1.20, with 3 well defined complete cycles. But, around 1930 ( as we know ) FDR started the inflation of the US dollar, but that 45-60 year up/down cycle in gold remained. We are apparently now on the downside of one of these gold cycles. Bottom soon I would guess, with next peak about 2010-2015.

But -- what is the problem? The US government/FED, in its infinite wisdom, has decided to inflate the US dollar. If it was worth $1.00 in 1930, it is now worth about $0.09 in 1998. But -- the price of gold has oscillated stably above and below that $1.00 price since 1792 or so. Not any more for the US dollar.

Another way of looking at this is that that $20 gold piece that you undoubtedly have is now worth $280/oz ( spot gold price ) plus whatever numismatic value it has. Now, doing the math, I get: $1.00* ( 20/280 ) or $0.07. Coincidence? When the purchasing power of gold cycles back up, will the US dollar go with it? I don't think so.

So -- which would you have? The paper dollar, which has been inflated steadily by the FED every time we are threatened by recession, or gold, which is now worth more than ten times the current value of the US dollar? Do you think the FED has stopped inflating the dollar?

Now, you will say, this is meaningless, because wages have spiraled up to meet the dropping value of the dollar. Well this is true, but what if you had just held on to those hard earned gold coins that your grandparents had saved, and just spent paper dollars instead? Think of how much better off you would be, wealth-wise.

Now if you argue about monetary growth, economic stimuli, monetary velocity, etc., I would agree that the US dollar has advantages over gold. We would not have had as much economic growth as we did over the years if we still had a firmly gold-based currency. But -- this was something like Pandora's box -- we got the downside of inflation to go with all the good things. And -- when all of this fiat currency stuff finally implodes, there will be alot of angry people that will want to go back to that old system because it cannot be corrupted -- like the crooked Roman politicians who demanded payment in gold, and paid out in worthless currency. As I'm sure you know, it was the Holy Roman Empire that outlasted Rome by nearly 1000 years, in large part because they did not inflate or otherwise corrupt their currency.

How about gold stocks? Well, as you know very well, for every dollar gold goes up or down, gold stocks go up or down about 3 dollars. I doubled my investment money during that one year gold bull in 1993 just by investing in gold equities.

And, that was despite the fact that we were in the long-term downside part of the gold cycle. I didn't know that at the time. Do now. But I still don't understand how to define this gold cycle better.

One more thing about equities. If you correct the US stock market for the effect of inflation ( real gains in investment ) , you will find that in over 100 years or so you have done little better than inflation if you just bought and held.

How does one maximize profits? Buy equities during times when there is little inflation, and gold stocks when there is. Anyone who did this would certainly do better than the buyer and holder of gold equities alone, or general equities alone. Wish I understood this in 1975 when I was still wet behind the ears. I'd be a millionaire now -- probably just from investing in the 1975-1980 gold bull. The profits from the equities markets during the last 20 years would have been extra.

Gollum

Your 21:55 and 21:03
Are excellent arguments
I couldnt agree more
I knew there was a reason I liked you
In gold, the Dow, physics,
And the rest of the stuff you talk about
You see what is,
Without rose colored glasses
But not devoid of hope
For better in the future
You have an interesting mind

Yours is the finest response yet
To my horrible numbers

Yes

financial person is pounding the table for oil sector stocks and is not negative to gold stocks. He also mentioned the HM stock purchase by the German rich guy...........HMMMMmmmm.. Can somebody speed Kitco up?

well a mans labor was probably based upon what a slave was worth, but slaves eat and are an unruly lot.... so gold was a better idea....and if you think about what you said, Gold is the noble metal for more reasons than most know or guess, what better place to make crooks honest, than with honest labor..... for an honest return... true technology does allow one to do more, but then you have more than one's invested and so really you have to consider everythings worth, in relation to the basic...which is gold=labor and/or equiptment to do labor..... and vice versus :- )

Gollum

Your 21:55 and 21:03
Are excellent arguments
I couldnt agree more
I knew there was a reason I liked you
In gold, the Dow, physics,
And the rest of the stuff you talk about
You see what is,
Without rose colored glasses
But not devoid of hope
For better in the future
You have an interesting mind

Yours is the finest response yet
To my horrible numbers

Yes