Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:01 - ID#261155)
@Tom w/out permission
even a gun or a knife is a currency, in the right or wrong hands, as the case may be.... everything being equal, and asccepted at face value....
and it is to bad you don't care about anyone enough to ask their permission/opinion or even to share that beer..... :- )

John Disney
(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:03 - ID#24135)
Army of Northern Virginia in Exile..
Gianni .. I like your attitude ..
.. Lincoln was a RAT ..

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:07 - ID#317193)
Dave...I'll try to be better :)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:07 - ID#45173)
Nikkei meter unstuck
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:01AM 14053.95 -207.29 -1.45%

I doubt there's any magic in the less than 14k number. It's been puttering around there for so long you have to figure that anyone with a serious stake there would have done the risk analysis and have moved their money out of the way of this drop. It's the surprise moves that do damage. This is not encouraging to the US or Latin markets, tho.

Anyone notice a big shift in Latin submerging markets today? The ruse is up. The spots have washed off the beast. Lots more bad debt headed to US banks. Maybe the IMF ought to hold off on the next flushing of money down the Russia toilet for a first flush of money down the Latin Am toilet.

On a different note, I wonder which is cheaper: spending public funds in a futile attempt to forestall the impact of currency speculation or buying gold with public funds and backing the currency with it. Hmmmmm.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:07 - ID#187109)
Charles, Charles, Charles.....
Take a pill dude......and buy some equities tomorrow....why get pissed?

If'n ya can't beat 'em..................


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:08 - ID#255226)
Gold & SnP
I'm still long Dec Gold from 277, a close tomorrow above 295 in the spot price would put gold outside of the weekly down channel going back nearly 2 years, I would consider adding to my position. I was stopped out of the SnP with a small loss yesterday, short again with stops above 992, a rally above 992 could lead to a big up move tomorrow short term. A quick drop to 910-900 tomorrow would finish off the C wave of an ABC correction and lead to a big rally. Try buying the SnP under 910 if it gets down there in the first 90 minutes of the market.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:10 - ID#317193)
I need a reality around?


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:10 - ID#342376)
Oldman was was bearish on gold last week but it seems he has a few gold calls up his sleeve anyway.....

oleman . . Thu, Sep 3, 11:07PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
barb: Some fokes buy lottery tickets. I buy far OOM sp leaps and gold calls. Always pay less than the cost of a lottery ticket. X100, of course." )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:11 - ID#261155)
@knowing what is a long ways towards being better...... :- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:13 - ID#257253)
John Disney
Yes, except when the BIG DOG eats.
Then all must stand back. Yolks and all.
Don't get in his way. That big dog can be gold, or FEAR,
"sea change" or some other mindless cute way of describing major
market declines. For my money, the BIG DOG is Gold or whatever else is a constant in the mindless, endless confusion of variables thrown out to confuse the unwary and less-informed.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:16 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John, I'm happy you are back....By the way,
here is Russian way to generate sell signal:

1. Find out that all vodka is gone and there is a need
to run to the party store to get more.
2. Find out that all cash in the wallet is gone.
3. Find out that party store accepts only cash and
no credit cards, checks or gold coins.
4. Find out that all cash is invested in damn stocks.
5. Decide to sell ASAP those damn stocks, get enough cash
to buy enough vodka, drink it and not to worry about
damn stocks any more.

Sell signal is in place.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:18 - ID#261155)
@the Big Dog here
is the Soveriegn State of DAVE....... La Ti Da and La Ti F*kinf De
:- ) )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:18 - ID#401460)
BC & the Gang
By Matt Drudge
Thu Sep 03 19:30:59 1998


Court Papers Reveal Tripp Key Witness in Travelgate, FBI Files

In unsealed court papers, a deputy in the Office of Independent Counsel declares that the investigation of alleged White House wrongdoing is of "constitutional and historic importance" that reaches "to the highest level of the federal government."


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:18 - ID#254321)
Gold buy signal!
John Disney: Pretty good one --

I gather your prescient dog does not like yolks!

Perhaps the sell signal is when the yolk doesn't make it to the bowl.

Why more than one egg?

Out of curiosity, think Canada and Australia Gold producers now have some of the cost advantages that South Africa has?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:22 - ID#337168)
Durban Deep
If someone was interested in getting a few Durban Deep shares, and they are not US resisdents then what are the advantages of getting them from NASDAQ in USD or from the JSE in S.A. Rand?

I understand that if the Rand gains against the dollar ( as some Kitco-ites predict ) then there would be greater gains for non-SA residents if the shares are denominated in Rand. But does the Nasdaq price also reflect the dollar/rand rate? Are there any benefits from trading on the Nasdaq?

I'm going to ask a broker anyway, but I just thought I would ask what the opinion on Kitco is.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:22 - ID#317193) could always post a list of betters...:)

John Disney
(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:29 - ID#24135)
Eggs are CHEAP !
JTF ..
You must not skimp .. be SURE you
have enough .. regard the other eggs
as a kind of sacrifice .. br carefull
.. you dont want to risk OFFENDING
someone/something ( ???? )
Yes the OPERATING COSTS of the Aussies
and I guess the Canadians are starting
to come into line with the RSAs but NOT
the cost of resources .. measured by
total market cap/ divided by total
resources .. many RSAs are under 10
bucks an ounce .. this HAS to change.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:30 - ID#288229)
@....peopleo.pricks........ not tug on the cape....

ocotillo springs is in chandler of queen creek rd....
you best keep your head stuck in the mud bud.....
or meet me in this non-existent place....i'll feed you some
cacti and rocks.....and you'll like it.....


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:33 - ID#261155)
@holding those near
and dear first, is always the best place to start... and if they have earned that place in your heart.... then I would guess they would do the same for you.... what else matters.... but that calm.... nothing else can impart...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:33 - ID#45173)
Gimme a dome
Where the megabucks drone
And the moneybills chagger all day
He'll give you a lick
And a buffalo kick
And send you on your way



(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:35 - ID#254321)
Re: BC and the Gang!
Highrise: I think your Matt Drudge post was the best of the day! I highly recommend it to all!

All: What if Kenneth Starr has been cleverer than we thought? What if the Monica Lewinsky stuff was to distract WJC's army of lawyers while he went after the meat? How do you distract a bunch of very smart defense lawyers? Give them something to cleverly attack while you are working on something else. Just because you are smart doesn't mean that you can't be fooled! I'm sure it is not this simple, but I suspect the above news with the sudden negative attitude of a number of Dems and the relative silence of the Republicans may be sign that WJC's days are numbered.

Don't forget Linda Tripps recordings of Monica discussing her affair with WJC hasn't got out yet! It will.

John Disney
(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:36 - ID#24135)
ADR ..
Columbo ..
Advantages of RSA rand purchase is
only that slighly smaller spreads in
Joburg. No currency effect AT ALL.
Deeps ADR are very liguid. I like
Randfontein a lot too though and
that is much more liquid HERE than
in ADR form. I buy them both ways.
Some stocks like Northam platinum
are unavailable in ADR format.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:42 - ID#264289)
Wanted: 1000 MT of gold
I found this on International Precious Metals Traders Webboard

Can anyone here help this fellow out?

Posted by Ahmed Helmy on July 31, 1998 at 15:10:57:

Dear Sirs,

Good day for you. We would like to inform you that we are searching for gold bullion with the following spec's as in the LOI, and we would like to have a signed FCO from your side as we want to finish this deal ASAP.
Product: Au ( Gold Metal ) bars hallmark internationally accepted.

Origin: ............

Destination: Buyer's refinery or any Switzerland airport to destination.

Quality: In bars hall mark internationally accepted.

Quantity: Total quantity 1000 metric Tons ( One thousand metric tons ) , in 12 ( Twelve ) deliveries,each about 83 ( Eighty Three ) MT last one 87 ( Eighty seven ) MT .One year contract with possibility of rolling and extensions.

Price: Second L.M.E Fixing on the date of delivery with net discount to buyer.
Price and payment are referred to metal with fitness 999,5/1000 or better ( Three nines comma five )

Total contract value: .............

Payment: By swift wire transfer, Bank to bank, for the agreed discounted amount, immediately after the delivery of the metal in the buyer's refinery and after the final positive control of documents, fitness and quantity.

Insurance: Transport and insurance to destination at seller's charge.

We look forward to have an offer from the seller himself or his mandate.

Best Regards

Ahmed Helmy
Managing Director
Arab Group
Tel.: 002024180731
Fax: 002024178814-002040310737

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:43 - ID#334219)
'A quick drop to 910-900 tomorrow would finish off the C wave of an ABC correction and lead to a big rally.'

An ABC from when ? Can you detail your current count ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:45 - ID#257253)
No Ocotillos bud, sorry
None there, so what ya smokin....
few sahuaros lots o creosote and concrete....
must have poured ya full like the freeway

but, on a heavier note,
where's the copper and gold and silver?
that's what we're here for, remember?

AZ was the preeminent mining state. What do you do?
Not trying to provoke, but to set it straight.

give me your email address and we will talk offline.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:45 - ID#261155)
@and to think I always lusted after that 5#
nugget.......jezzzzzzzzzzz 1000 MT..... what a pig....... :- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:48 - ID#288229)'the best defense is a strong offense'..........

this in honor of mozel........and the truth....

read on....klinton going down while fiddling and lighting matches....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:49 - ID#153110)
The Worth of an Ounce of Gold
The easy gold is long gone from this world. If an ounce of gold had to extracted by labor alone today, how many man hours would it require ? The answer is an immense number. In most mining sites, gold extraction now is uneconomic, virtually impossible. without machines, pounding mills, and the like. How do you calculate the worth of the man hours required to build and deliver and maintain the machines that extract gold and refine and secure and deliver gold ?

We live in a world in which all the labor of seventy years is stored in debt or equity. Every thing, every improvement of nature, in the modern world less than seventy years old was built by labor that was paid in credit, if at all, and the debt for the credit extended has never been paid. ( And never can be. ) The destruction of equity value is real destruction of stored labor, or devalutation of it if you will, just as surely as default destroys past and future credit.

So, it seems to me the ounces of gold produced in the last seventy years in a country divided by the debt accummulated in the same period is a rational way to calculate the real worth of the next ounce of gold extracted in a country. I believe it may be as much as $30,000 in the US.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:50 - ID#254321)
G'Nite to all upover,
and Goodmorning to all downunder! What a day, and I think think the days will get wilder. I fully expect one of those North Korean missles will get loose and land in Iraq, or Moscow by accident ( nosecone or second stage? ) . Hope the North Koreans have only got the delivery part down, not the contents.

Shouldn't joke about deliveries like this, but it is a human survival trait. Jay Leno may have something to say about North Korea's delivery style, if he hasn't already. Probably he would say something like: 'The North Koreans have a unigue style of missle launch brinksmanship -- they lob the second stage over the target, and let the nose cone fall short'. Then he might say --'I guess we are supposed to guess where the warhead is'.

Tortfeasor: I think you need to help me out -- been up about 20 hours today.

Someday I will learn when it is right to say G'day. Not the way Paul Harvey says it, but how those downunder say it.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:59 - ID#411259)
..... Multiple Replies .....

Robnoel -
I have no historical figures for other currencies, but since gold is traded internationally in US dollars, we must speak in those terms. To speak in other terms is to speak of currency trading - one for the other. This is an entirely different approach, and one which brings the relative worth of evil fiat currencies into play. I dont think this would do anything but muddy the waters and is of no real benefit of discovering the value of gold. Either we are talking about the value of gold, or we are talking about trading yen for dollars, they are two separate thingies.

T1 -
For those many centuries you speak of, commodities did not rise. Until efficient irrigation and mass farming were achieved, efforts went towards survival. Isolated cultures had to fend for themselves. Most societies were agrarian in nature. Some commodities would be scarcer than others at certain times, but the average value of the commodities did not change. Gold also did not change. For evidence of this, look at Barts historical London fix prices. Comparing an unchanging price of gold to an unchanging price of other commodities is disingenuous and teaches us nothing about the true value of gold, other than X amount of gold has always bought X amount of food which, if plotted on a graph of centuries, would be flat as the Kansas Plains.

Mr. Young -
I would be happy to discuss history with you any time. History has proven that my above arguments are true. If you dispute this, please offer evidence, numbers, anything but just because you say it is so. I am supporting my views with Gods own numbers. If there is another valid way to view this, I would love to hear it. Perhaps you could tell me the value of gold from 1000 years ago? Do you even know? How about 3000 years? And how are you defining that value? In some currency of the time which no longer exists? ( Oooooooooh, Theres an open door folks, lets see who runs with that ) . Do you define the value by what it can be exchanged for? If not, how else would you place a value? How much land did gold buy a millennium ago? How much food could a nugget buy? How many nuggets made a proper dowry? If you do the numbers you will find, that the value of gold is as consistent and stable at the value of bread. Of the two, on a hungry eve, Ill take the latter. Oh yeah, since you sign your name at the end of your posts, I assumed that is how you would like to be called. Tis a common enough mistake, and I am a common enough fellow, so no offense. I am going to stop all communication with you now and for all time. I find no use in your addled messages and obvious hostility. Continue if you must, but do it on your own.


Lurky -
Damn right, gold will rise!
Others, apparently, are typing on their keyboards
On stone tables within their mudden huts
Before they take the oxen in the fields

All this instant info available to all of us
Has not made some wake up
To smell the millennium
Keep it up


Charles Keeling -

You are mistaken.
I spoke of buying gold and holding gold.
The physical metal. The shiny stuff.
I never once spoke of mining shares
I congratulate you on your trades
And I congratulate you for making my point
You made money because you bought and sold
This is what I do for a living, buy and sell gold

Your post was also very hostile
Yet we have never exchanged words
What is it that makes you so angry?
I am painting colors on nobody
I am simply looking at inanimate numbers to find what lies within
I do not make the numbers up, I simply do the math
If you have never done so, but instead, swallowed the platitudes whole
Perhaps this is a worthwhile exercise, yes?

If you are angry, it is not at me
Maybe you should read some of my prior posts
I am telling people they can now do away with
20 years of pain and loss of holding gold
Buy it here, and buy it today
For today is a good day to buy
How does this disagree with you?
Again, I dont get it


John B -
Word on the trading floor is that funds and producers will sell above 288. This is OK, they will buy it back about 10 lower. There is no interest in getting big time short in this market, but there is no real danger of a runaway bull. In this type of market, the bears are always in charge, but only for $10 or so, then the bulls step in for $12 or so on the upside, then comes the bears again. This is what I expect for the rest of the year. Im delivering gold when I can get it into people hands below $300. This is a good thing. Thanks for your kind comments.

Arden -
Next time you see that bear, walk right up and bid it move aside.
The bear will comply, for you will have noble luster in your eyes
And bears fear this, and fear that their short term trades do not allow time
To fold up the tent and pack up the goodies before it starts to rain
I would like to hear more of these mines and these mining ways, yes?

Gollum -
I like the "store of labor" angle. How would we check the numbers?
Also, gold MAY melt in a fire and I had a client once who lost gold in a flood.
True indeedy, it does not rot, but all we consume to stay alive does.
Value may not be found in a things perishable nature, but rather
How important is this thing at this moment? Which will allow me to continue?
The relative value of all things change as levels of survival ebb and flow

Im Hungry

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:00 - ID#401460)
Reno may appoint another independent council to investigate illegal campaign financing that everyone knows occured - she may now have proof? Dick Morris may be the smoking gun.

This puts the VP at risk!

What a time for the US to have a double impeachment, it will certainly add to the market termoil.

The Democrats are now speaking out.

So far, Pennsylvania Rep. Paul McHale is the only congressional Democrat to call for Clinton's resignation.

Now, another, Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, says Clinton should ``choose an honorable course and do what is right for our nation.''

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a moderate Democrat from Connecticut, harshly rebuked President Clinton Thursday for his ``immoral'' behavior in the Monica Lewinsky scandal, opening the door for a new wave of criticism of the president from within his own party.

New York Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan immediately praised Lieberman for saying ``what needed to be said.''

Nebraska Democrat Bob Kerrey shared Lieberman's view that a White House affair is not simply a private matter and echoed Lieberman's call for Clinton ``to go far further than what he did `` in his August 17 speech to the nation confessing his relationship with Lewinsky.

John F. Kenedy Jr. was on Leno tonight.
Is he waiting in the wings or is he just appearing to put more pressure on Clinton & the Gang?

Good Night All


Dave in CO
(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:04 - ID#229141)
@Charles Keeling 23:04
In addition, the economic numbers coming out of this administration are always good for a laugh. You can depend on whatever number is needed to keep the bubble going. An economist took a close look at a recent employment number and found that there were several increments posted of exactly 250,000. The odds were many millions to 1 against that employment number being an honest number. His analysis was written up, I believe, in the N.Y. Post.

Here's hoping that WJBC's destiny will be determined in the next week or 2 and that a modicum of honesty will return to the markets.

Thanks for your post.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:07 - ID#288229)

go to 825 west queen creek in chandler arizona 85249......and tell me what you read on all the local signage.......a new development called ocotillo springs.....look up the address on the internet......yessssssssss...
as far as smoking psychoactive order to see things others cannot must look places others never look....or cannot look.....or will not look.....however you get to this place...the vehicle....matters not.....if you must use this analogy to
to bolster your be it. consider the implications....and


(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:08 - ID#261155)
@mozel, a man panning
hard all day might do a third of a yard of gravel....he might earn a 1/2 a DWT of gold for the fruits of his labors...and this has and is still the way it is in many a place ( flood gold ) and it has nothing to do with the past debts or future is really just the way the ratio of gold to dirt... sets a living day wage of the labor of a man...and/or any labor of man and machine.... for any commodity produced upon the simple principle of a days labor=gold and gold=a days labor.
And when you have corrupted that simple valuation of the worth of gold/labor....through politics or whatever.... you have no gold standard.
Gold in itself was never the standard, but the labor spent in recovering it, proportionate to a value that meant earning a living wage...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:13 - ID#257253)
You are not of Arizona.
Never have been.
Just so Kitco knows, this cherokee is not of AZ.
Having been here over 30 years, I can tell you he knows not.
or No's Knot, which ever you prefer.
Only cherokee's I know are in Oklahoma. Duh.
but we can still be friends. We have always welcomed the newcomers.

Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:23 - ID#32080)
Dave what a fascinating theory!
Did you come up with that on your own, or read it somewhere?

I was thinking gold would need to drop well below the average cost of production these days to hit bottom, but the way you value an ounce of gold makes me wonder!

Tell me more, when do you think this will sink in and take effect?

By the way I've owned a placer claim and know exactly how much work goes into getting just one ounce of gold with human labour only and it's a lot. You are right all the easy stuff is long gone now.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:24 - ID#153110)
The ratio of gold per ton of dirt and the ratio of labor hours per ounce of gold are indeed the important ratios.

Now, if labor is assisted by machines, then the hours of labor stored in the machines must be added to the direct labor hours.

There are mine and panning sites where gold can still be extracted by manual labor alone. I was looking to an averaging view of labor and ounces at all mining sites.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:25 - ID#257253)
dave, and gold panning
You are correct. And here in AZ we panned gold in the depression days just to survive. I have panned the canyons myself nearby, and even n the replete ones, the gold yield depends largely on labor. Hours and hours of manual labor - moving the sand and extracting the placer.
What a great feeling it is, but in today's world, the average yield is a pittance compared with the old days where gold was $35 per OZ, but you
could survive in a deflationary time such as the Great Depression!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:29 - ID#257344)
standing up to the bear
RJ - I have no fear, until I saw the real BEAR. And then I did a little research and found out how naive I was. Now I REALLY FEAR THE BEAR!!!!

Yes I have a noble cause, and indeed I have suffered both the financial and physical beating of many on this forum. Now I know that the bear market in most financial assets is here. DO NOT FIGHT THE BEAR. It is not a small one, but a very large one and it eats everything, with respect for nothing or no one can not digest GOLD!!!!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:30 - ID#411259)
..... More Replies.... Goodnight .....

Isure -
I appreciate your point, but when speaking of value, we must speak in constant time frames. The coins and nuggets you mention are more valuable today because of their antiquity. When these were traded as mediums of exchange, they were brand new and just one form of money at the time. The quarter you now have in you pocket may be worth $1000 in 1000 years, but it only spends 25 cents today.

Oro -
Gold is not money. Where is it used as such? Not where it WAS used, for these same cultures believed in Sun Gods and bleeding patients to rid them of illness. These, as other outmoded concepts, have passed into history and we do no lament their passage. Gold will not rise in value absent the relative currency falling in value, for gold has proven to be stable if not profitable. If one owns gold, one must see its price rise to earn a profit. If you would like to invest the gold, in any one of a million different ways, you will find it necessary to convert the gold to something else. This something else, is money. Money is what you can buy things with. The best you can do with gold, is to agree how much money it is worth, and make the exchange from there. That is in fact exactly how we do it, yes? We all watch the screens every day and whoop it up when the numbers get bigger. These numbers are money. Gold is not. Try to buy a house with gold. Now try it with currency. Which works?

Boardreader @ "If gold is a simple commodity, there is much too much of it, and it is wildly overpriced. However, if gold is monetary, it must be considered rare, and incredibly undervalued!"

I dont understand. There is more gold around today than there was at any time in history. Mining becomes more efficient, production increases, very little is consumed, most ends up in stockpiles, gold is becoming less rare every day. There is plenty of gold to go around to every soul on earth. Maybe the all only get an ounce each ( somebody else can do the math, numbers arent my thing ) . Now value gold what you like. Make it equal to some food or some labor ( exceeding the labor it took to extract the gold ) . You could value gold in dollars. You could say that each one ounce coin is worth 1 US dollar. You could say they are worth $1000 US dollars. One number is as arbitrary as the next. If it were valued at $1, I suspect they would purchase about $300 US dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Where the ounce valued at $1000, I suspect it would buy about $300 dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Gold is not money, see above.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:31 - ID#33773)
John Disney, Re DROOY
John Disney, Thanks for your information. What does "ADR" stand for?
'scuse my ignorance. I just read your article at Golden Eagle "THE RANDGOLD AND EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO" and I am even more convinced to get some mining shares.

Do you have any comments on Durban Deep's move yesterday up to 2.5? Is this what Gold Dancer is talking about when he said DROOY can go to $15 by January? I am certainly encouraged by the Tael gold price here in Hongkong jumping up HK$37 ( US$4.75 ) since yesterday.

Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:32 - ID#32080)
mozel I was in the B.C. interior in mining country recently
and fellow there was trying to sell a gold collecting contraption ( sluice ) for $1,500 he got it in lue of unpaid labour incidently, anyway, this same guy lives on property with a good producing creek running through it ( at one time anyway ) . I panned less than a kilometer upstream of him and got good colours out of the mosses and gravels. I was amazed he wasn't using it. A little refurbishing and he'd have his own little backyard operation.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:32 - ID#65118)
I know of exactly of where cherokee speaks! He does NOT speak with fork tongue. I am very close by to Ocotillo. Know from where he speaks. It does exist and is a real place. Need a pretty new map though...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:35 - ID#387243)
I hope gold sales weren't used for this
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands ( AP ) - Some art experts praise ``Victory Boogie Woogie'' as the pinnacle of abstract pioneer Piet Mondrian's career, while many taxpayers wonder whether the painting was a waste of $40 million.

Jolting the usually tranquil Dutch art world, auditors have opened a preliminary probe into the purchase as complaints mounted Thursday that the 51-by-51-inch unfinished painting isn't worth the price tag.

``This is outrageous,'' declared art historian Bob van den Boogert at Amsterdam's Rembrandt House Museum.

``I think the majority of Dutch people actually hate Mondrian,'' he said, noting that entire galleries were deserted during a big Mondrian exhibit in 1994.

``Victory Boogie Woogie,'' a diamond-shaped collage of small squares in bold blues, reds and yellows, was done in oil and black crayon with pieces of paper and plastic. The Dutch master created it in New York between 1942 and his death in 1944.

The private National Art Collection Funds purchased the work last week with part of a donation of $55 million from the 1998 profits of the Dutch Central Bank. The highly publicized buy, the most expensive art purchase ever funded by the Dutch state, aroused the curiosity of the national Court of Audit, an independent body that investigates government spending.

A preliminary investigation is under way, and court spokeswoman Marijke Ram said a full-scale probe could follow to determine whether public money was used ``prudently.''

``Victory Boogie Woogie,'' which belonged to American magazine publishing magnate S.I. Newhouse Jr. and had hung in a New York apartment, will be added to the permanent collection of The Hague Municipal Museum, already home to the largest Mondrian collection in the world. It goes on display there Oct. 29.

Although it certainly has its detractors - one man even told a newspaper, ``Return that thing. I almost threw up'' - others say it's a masterpiece worth every penny.

The art fund that bought it calls it one of the most important artworks of the 20th century.

And museum spokesman Gerrit de Rook said the purchase was significant because Dutch collections still were missing works from the final years of Mondrian's career.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:36 - ID#286230)
World doesn't care about Monica- But North Korea counts

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:37 - ID#257253)
Ocotillo is a cactus that grows above 3000' elevation. I am in that
part of the world. Chandler is 1300-1500 elevation, at best. Don't
bother me with your artificial subdivision development names.
City Folk


(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:38 - ID#153110)
When you pick up the whole deal for a song, ...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:39 - ID#261155)
@ if I was wrong......
and labor did not = gold and vice versus.... why would gold ever become the true medium of exchange.... was it simply because it's relative abundance was about the same.....everywhere...and it was/is the exception of bonaza's, which there were relatively few... to marr golds noble ratio to ones labor everywhere....that made it the standard...
does anyone really think miners produce more value for their labor than wheat farmers or cabbage farmers...hour for hour, labor is labor....and the measure was/is gold....because it has all the other characteristics that make it the perfect medium of exchange... THINK OF THE WORD........
E...X...C...H...A...N...G...E............. :- ) JEZZZZZZZZZZZZ you guys!!

Who Cares?
(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:41 - ID#242328)
Ocotillo? Yes, it's just south of Chandler

Heck, since we just moved here to Phoenix last month, I was
out that way last week. Big, planned community with a big
pond, or stream, waterfall thing out in front of the OCOTILLO
SOMETHING or other cement sign molded to look like rock.

I decided I didn't want to drive that far, though. : )

What's the big deal? is
a bigger deal tonight. Somebody has finally leaked something
about Starr's report.

Looks like you can stick a fork in Clinton, 'cause he's done. : )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:42 - ID#342376)
You're New Paradigm post is one of the "scrolling articles" on golden eagle.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:44 - ID#65118)
@AZAU... Whats in a name?
Gee, small world! I am in Chandler! Its cloudy and a bit breezy.
Was overcast all day! Octillo is not a town but is a real place and
everybody I know, Knows exactly where it is. Its also a Plant.
Neighbor has one in his front yard. Whats your point?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:45 - ID#286230)
If Clinton goes--
How do we tell Gore from Vince McMahon?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:45 - ID#257253)
The sluice may increase your throughput, but not necessarily your output.
Any kind of mechanization carries with it the cost and trouble associated with that machine. The fellow you reference may have tried it, and if he didn't have the right stokers, either people or machines, it may have not made much difference. You know how stubborn frenchman are. No offense, my family was from France.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:46 - ID#346236)
Fed Announces Rampant INFLATION in Near Future
Near Future

Economic Collapse a Certainty

 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved

CAJI News Service - August 28, 1998 - Exclusive - by William Cooper - Using

the phony Y2K Millenium Bug as an excuse the Federal Reserve Board has

announced its plan to introduce in excess of 50 billion new Federal Reserve

Notes into circulation within the next 14 months. The Fed knows the economy

is in the process of collapse. In a debt based economy such as ours the only

way in which new money can be introduced into circulation is by issuing credit

or creating new debt. The Fed knows the collapse of the stock market will

cause a huge demand for credit and loans when companies and individuals

attempt to remain solvent. The Fed also knows that the introduction of 50

billion new notes into circulation through the creation of new debt will signal

the end of the middle class in America through rampant inflation, the true

result of such a flood of new notes and the only source or cause of inflation.

The elimination of the middle class has long been the coveted goal of

international Marxist socialism/communism.

I have warned you repeatedly of the long term goals of Marxist

socialism/communism for many years. The process of destroying the United

States of America is almost complete and the new world order of socialist

totalitarian government looms large on the horizon. Only two powerful forces

remain in place which have the capability to prevent the communist goal of

world domination from becoming reality. Those two forces are the American

middle class and the Right of all Americans to own firearms protected by the

Second Amendment to the Constitution for the United States of America. We

are over the financial abyss that can and will precipitate the downfall of the

middle class unless the American People have the ability to act swiftly and

conclusively at this time... and without delay.

My advice is to remove all paper assets from all portfolios immediately and

invest heavily in any precious metal of your choice. My recommendation is

Gold as it is artificially depressed at this time. The price of Gold and Silver are

being intentionally held down by flooding the market with both metals

whenever the stock exchange takes a plunge. Smart investors know that the

fall of Gold and Silver during a fall of stock prices is impossible without

intentional manipulation. When all is said and done only those who have

followed the dictates of history will survive the coming catastrophe.

You would do well to remember or to learn, whichever the case, that paper is

NOT money. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note is NOT a dollar any more

than a quart is milk. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note has no more value

than a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note. A dollar is a measurement of

money, it is NOT money. The money of account of the united States of

America is a specific measurement in weight and purity of Gold and Silver

coin. If you don't believe me put a real silver dollar next to a twenty dollar

gold piece. Feel the difference in weight. Note the reality of the commodity

which you hold in your hands. Next place a one dollar denominated Federal

Reserve Note on the table next to a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note

and tell me the real difference in the value, if any, between the two. If you

have a brain you have just realized how badly you have been manipulated and

robbed. Now do something about it.


UNDER ANY PRETEXT WHATSOEVER... even if you must die in the

process. You are going to need your guns to insure your children's, your

grandchildren's and your great grandchildren's, your posterity's, Freedom and

the Freedom for the future of the world. The only alternative at this point is to

see America fall to the enslavement of a Marxist socialist/communist world. If

you allow that to happen a day will come when your children will spit in your



Directory of Press Releases

Table of ContentsNear Future

Economic Collapse a Certainty

 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved

CAJI News Service - August 28, 1998 - Exclusive - by William Cooper - Using

the phony Y2K Millenium Bug as an excuse the Federal Reserve Board has

announced its plan to introduce in excess of 50 billion new Federal Reserve

Notes into circulation within the next 14 months. The Fed knows the economy

is in the process of collapse. In a debt based economy such as ours the only

way in which new money can be introduced into circulation is by issuing credit

or creating new debt. The Fed knows the collapse of the stock market will

cause a huge demand for credit and loans when companies and individuals

attempt to remain solvent. The Fed also knows that the introduction of 50

billion new notes into circulation through the creation of new debt will signal

the end of the middle class in America through rampant inflation, the true

result of such a flood of new notes and the only source or cause of inflation.

The elimination of the middle class has long been the coveted goal of

international Marxist socialism/communism.

I have warned you repeatedly of the long term goals of Marxist

socialism/communism for many years. The process of destroying the United

States of America is almost complete and the new world order of socialist

totalitarian government looms large on the horizon. Only two powerful forces

remain in place which have the capability to prevent the communist goal of

world domination from becoming reality. Those two forces are the American

middle class and the Right of all Americans to own firearms protected by the

Second Amendment to the Constitution for the United States of America. We

are over the financial abyss that can and will precipitate the downfall of the

middle class unless the American People have the ability to act swiftly and

conclusively at this time... and without delay.

My advice is to remove all paper assets from all portfolios immediately and

invest heavily in any precious metal of your choice. My recommendation is

Gold as it is artificially depressed at this time. The price of Gold and Silver are

being intentionally held down by flooding the market with both metals

whenever the stock exchange takes a plunge. Smart investors know that the

fall of Gold and Silver during a fall of stock prices is impossible without

intentional manipulation. When all is said and done only those who have

followed the dictates of history will survive the coming catastrophe.

You would do well to remember or to learn, whichever the case, that paper is

NOT money. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note is NOT a dollar any more

than a quart is milk. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note has no more value

than a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note. A dollar is a measurement of

money, it is NOT money. The money of account of the united States of

America is a specific measurement in weight and purity of Gold and Silver

coin. If you don't believe me put a real silver dollar next to a twenty dollar

gold piece. Feel the difference in weight. Note the reality of the commodity

which you hold in your hands. Next place a one dollar denominated Federal

Reserve Note on the table next to a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note

and tell me the real difference in the value, if any, between the two. If you

have a brain you have just realized how badly you have been manipulated and

robbed. Now do something about it.


UNDER ANY PRETEXT WHATSOEVER... even if you must die in the

process. You are going to need your guns to insure your children's, your

grandchildren's and your great grandchildren's, your posterity's, Freedom and

the Freedom for the future of the world. The only alternative at this point is to

see America fall to the enslavement of a Marxist socialist/communist world. If

you allow that to happen a day will come when your children will spit in your



Directory of Press Releases

Table of Contents

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:49 - ID#65118)
@Who Cares... We could have a western Kitco Convention...
Boy there are enough folks here in the Phoenix on Kitco to make
quite a crowd... The heat is on the downside and welcome to the valley!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:49 - ID#153110)
It strikes me as odd that everyone knows and talks only about government intervention in the currency market, but that so many at the same time decry the idea that government intervenes in the stock market as the product of a fevered conspiracist's imagination.

Is it not likewise equally odd that people accept the fact of covert surprise attacks by governments, but decry the idea the same governments might engage in covert surprise attacks as kooky conspiracy theories ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:49 - ID#257344)
gold labor?
Mozel - my friend I have never responded to you but I appreciate and have deeply reflected on your postings. I am pleased you returned to this forum to share your views.

My experience in this business began as a geologist and process engineer and then to corporate levels. It is very difficult to equate a man's labor against the production of gold. For example, I just returned from Alaska and has a conversation with a man who had built and operated his own placer mine. He was able to process about 60 cubic yards per hour by himself with his equipment ( against every labor law in the US! ) , but how can you compare his effort against a man using a gold pan in the same place, who at the very best could process maybe one cubic yard in a very long day? No, this is a very indefinate factor in your discussions!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:51 - ID#327123)
@John Disney
Now that the Crown Resources deal between RANGY and DROOY is in concrete, has your wait and see attitude changed on RANGY? If not, what other concerns do you have?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:52 - ID#257253)
Who Cares
Yes, the more important truth.
Just chewin on it while waitin'.
Stick a fork in burnt toast? OK!

we invest and cash in, yes?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:53 - ID#261155)
@asua, and yes.......
the higher mathmatics come into play.....a sluice is but one of the attempts... to corrupt the true value of gold.. or screw with fixation of the true value.... of the medium of exchange...but I don't care what you use, there is still a lot of dirt mixed with that damn gold.....and somethings going to give matter what you do....digging in the ground is hard on machines as well as men.... oh yes.... hard!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:01 - ID#342376)
The Bear in Gold must be dead...
I've been trying to get my mom into gold stocks for a while now. She finally agreed today. We're gonna get here some DROOY tomorrow!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:03 - ID#257253)
Please advise as to the wisdom of DROOY investment at this point.
Have been watching, and think it is a good investment to add to my many other AU and AG investments. Do they pay a dividend?
Are they hedged? How much/far. Cut to the chase, please.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:04 - ID#153110)
"how can you compare his effort against a man using a gold pan in the same place, who at the very best could process maybe one cubic yard in a very long day? No, this is a very indefinate factor in your discussions!"

Well, it is definitely real, however, varying, of course, from site to site.. Take, for example, the B.C. situation recounted in Lou's post. Hardly anyone considers the labor that went into the roads by which one travels to and from a gold field. Or the labor that went into the satellite photo the geologist used to find the field. Or the labor that built the communications network that is used to order a replacement part or obtain assistance in making repairs. For starters.

Our view of the worth of gold would be very much different if all the labor that went into building the things and improvements to nature in the last seventy years had been purchased with gold and not with credit. It was from this thought that I reasoned dividing the ounces of gold produced in the last seventy years by the debt accumulated would properly express the true total cost of gold production. There have been other things produced in that interval, truly. But, they are almost all of wasting value, subject to destruction by fire, flood, biological clocks, insects, rust, or bacteria and the like. The gold produced remains as permanent production.

Who Cares?
(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:05 - ID#242328)
Arizona, and the Democrats Dump Bill

Yes, it's quite suprising how many folks are in Phoenix. I was
sitting in the Motel 6 at Camelback and Scottsdale, and reading
comments from Cherokee and Aurator ( ? ) about playing golf
and working about 3 blocks away from me. Pretty strange.

I don't know if anyone mentioned it yet, but it looks like the
Democrats are dumping Clinton....

Electronic Telegragh - London
Sept. 4, 1998 By Hugo Gurdon in Washington

Democrat in Senate attack on Clinton

ONE of Bill Clinton's most senior Democratic colleagues launched
a blistering attack on the President last night, accusing him in the
Senate of "disgraceful behaviour" which embarrassed all Americans
abroad and undermined parents' efforts to teach their children right
from wrong.

In what analysts said was a "devastating blow" to the President's
chances of saving his job, Senator Joseph Lieberman accused Mr
Clinton of "premeditated deception" which had inflicted damage on
his office, his credibility and his country.

The senator balked at calling for a motion of censure against the
President, but said that if the imminent report on suspected
presidential abuse of office, being prepared by the independent
counsel Kenneth Starr, confirmed Congress's worst fears,
resignation or impeachment were the alternatives.

The attack went far further than any Democrat has yet ventured in
criticising Mr Clinton and, coming from one of the most senior
senators in the party, is expected to trigger a flood of further
defections. Two other senior Democratic senators joined Sen
Lieberman in criticising the president: Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and
Patrick Moynihan of New York.

Sen Lieberman's attack has put Mr Clinton on notice that his party
will not stand by a President who has squandered and abused its
trust. Robert Novak, one of America's most respected pundits said
the senator had "opened the door" for other Democrats to break
ranks with the President.

Sen Lieberman rejected Mr Clinton's contention that his affair with
Monica Lewinsky was a private matter. It was conducted, he said,
"with an employee in the work place". He said: "Such behaviour is
not just inappropriate, it is immoral. The President has undermined
the efforts of millions of American parents who are trying to instill in
our children the values of honesty." The speech is the clearest sign
that Democrats are now fleeing the President.

Janet Reno, the Attorney General, who has refused for 18 months
to appoint an independent counsel to investigate Mr Clinton's
suspected illegal fund-raising last election, has now backed down
and begun a probe into his alleged violations. Senior Republicans
have threatened Miss Reno with contempt of Congress proceedings
for her seeming partisanship, and in the past week she has begun
investigations into whether Vice President Al Gore and another
Clinton aide, Harold Ickes, lied about their fund-raising. Now the
President is in her sights for by-passing laws controlling election
money raising.

The investigation of Mr Gore may, ironically, help Mr Clinton, for if
the President were impeached, the Vice President would be in line
to succeed him automatically. Even if they decide Mr Clinton has
abused his office, Congress may not want to get rid of him knowing
his potential successor is under investigation for comparable

In a further blow to Mr Clinton, a federal judge who previously
tried hard to protect him has threatened to rule that the President is
in contempt of court. Judge Susan Webber Wright, who presided
over a case brought by Paula Jones, a former Arkansas state
employee, who accused Mr Clinton of sexual harassment, is
re-examining the President's sworn denial in that case of an affair
with Miss Lewinsky.

Judge Wright wrote that the President's deposition "has been the
subject of intense scrutiny in the wake of his public admission that
he was 'misleading' with regard to his relationship . . . Although the
court has concerns about the nature of the President's Jan 17
deposition testimony given his recent public statements, the court
makes no findings at this time regarding whether the President may
be in contempt."

Lawyers expressed shock at Judge Wright's evidently angry threat.
If she were to rule that the nation's chief executive, who swore to be
the supreme law enforcer, has instead traduced the judicial system,
it could prove impossible for the House of Representatives'
judiciary committee to avoid holding impeachment hearings.

-----== Posted via Deja News, The Leader in Internet Discussion ==----- Create Your Own Free Member Forum

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:09 - ID#261155)
if you got a man that can pan a yard of gold bearing sand I would like to meet him...... and the labor=gold wasn't true..... do you think someone, anyone is going to bother to produce one commodity over another..because their simple labor is worth more with the one than the other...hell no....they would all produce gold or whatever that paid the more, as labor is labor, and one's labor here is/was worth no more than the others there.... and if you counted all your productions of labor..
for all the different commodities.... why would one be worth any more than the other... on a day to day basis....and which one could and would
you most successfully store the fruits of those labors...?.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:11 - ID#153110)
@Blinders (Apologize for not more diligently previewing posts)
It strikes me as odd that everyone knows and talks OPENLY about government intervention in the currency market, but that so many at the same time decry the idea that government intervenes in the stock market as the product of a fevered conspiracist's imagination.

Is it not likewise equally odd that people accept the fact of OVERT surprise attacks by governments, but decry the idea the same governments might engage in covert surprise attacks as kooky conspiracy theories ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:11 - ID#257253)
Your analysis is impressive. That which was, is. Gold endures.
Current economics is what drives the modern gold producer. There is so much overhead, never mind the poor soul actually doing manual labor, that you must fly under the radar or you will never make it. This means using no-cost energy, non-communications ( almost ) , and certainly the minimization of overhead. Until inflation sets in, and ups gold, there is an extreme divergence between costs and revenues, especially for the small operator. Could that be the reason? Get rid of the independents and the small producers? It is happening in all other industries.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:12 - ID#65118)
@AZAU... Drooy...
Been a holder of Drooy since it was blydy. ( Can't spell it )
Its been a dog the past 2 years, but every dog has its day!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:14 - ID#65118)
@Who Cares?. No surprise here! My liberal buddy...
Is all bummed out. Time for this man to hit the bricks! Happy to see it!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:16 - ID#258302)
gold answers?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:17 - ID#257253)
Open-Loop et at
Thanks, OL, appreciate the reco.
to other city folk in PHX
I am not in PHX.
AZ is much larger than PHX.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:20 - ID#65118)
@AZAU... yes it is!
I am here cuz of a great job! Spend alot of time in Pinetop and Lakeside.
We get out of town every chance we get. Have a place there...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:20 - ID#153120)
Marshall and the Masters of Marxism
Marshall I think your wrong about International Socialism nearing its success for destroying America and its middle class, they're to stupid to be able to have conceive and execute such a plan.
No the truth is that if there is in fact a disaster looming in the future of America and the West it will be accomplished not by the genius of Marx's Minions but by the ignorance of the best and brightest in American's government and industry. Lets not forget the voters too! You know it hard to cheat a honest man.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:30 - ID#261155)
@well you start where you want
boys, but the price of labor must at least equal a living wage, because when it doesn't....the natives not only get restless, they lose hope, and who without hope would bother to dig in the blind blind ground... and can start where you want.... to figure the price of gold....but you better first factor in the price of labor... for it is labor that a society is based upon....and by which it survives....not anything else.... nytol.....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:33 - ID#257253)
Well, at least you know of other than PHX
But I am not close to those either. Mining country. The real thing,
and why Kitco and all of us are here, I hope.

OL, send me a snail or email address, and I will gladly talk with you
outside kitco. No obligation. email is probably best.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:34 - ID#257344)
I know such men
Dave - yes I do know men who can pan a yard per day. They would most likely greet you with a gun in your face! Tough men.

Would they do something different with their labor if they could? Like what? Grow tomatoes? Take the product of their labor in that? No, at this time it the gold cycle you see some real die-hards - like you and me and them!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:43 - ID#65118)
Drop me your e-mail if you like and we can take it from there. Would
be very happy to chat with you in private offline. Mine has traceable info in it and I do not have an alias setup. I am off to the pool for a
dip and will check back. If that does not work for you we can figure
something out to keep it off the forum. I am a rookie goldpanner and
metal detector hobbyist.
Regards, ol

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:44 - ID#153110)
It is impossible to cheat a truly honest man. But, it is easy to cheat a man who has been raised to believe fraud is normal and inevitable because everybody is doing it. Just about every American over 40 knows full well he is participating in a legal cheat of the next generation. They expect to cheat without being themselves cheated. In this expectation of being able to cheat the next generation without consequence to yourself was the beginning of Social Security and its acceptance today is founded on that same willingness to defraud the young. People rationalize their participation because the government forces them to contribute. They think they are owed. But, nobody is counting.

Authors of schemes to justify wrong as being right, whether they are book authors or political authors, do indeed destroy nations.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:56 - ID#261155)
@well Arden,
it hard to find someone who can dig a yard of rock, gravel and stuff much less pan it too, all in one day...... and yes the gun still has it's place.... and I know how much work goes in both tomatoes and gold... and that is/was the point I have been trying to make about gold/tomatoes or whatever... labor gets it all, and labor is just that, labor... and one is worth no more than the is only the workwise, who really did do well....but we have lost them to the hourly pay scale.... and the it is my understand the really big deposits of Gold has yet to be discovered, because they are telluride deposits and you would have to literally have be standing on top of one and know what you was seeing...before they ever will be discovered Mozel....... :- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:58 - ID#153110)
If a man hires himself out to pull a plow, his wage is limited by the cost of feeding and caring for an oxen or horse. Plust some incerement that must be put aside to replace the horse. What accountants today call depreciation expense.

The modern tax system allows the corporation to deduct depreciation expense from revenues before tax. But, the man is not allowed to deduct likewise. In this distinction, the balance is thrown against the independent and small producer. Because a lesser portion of their total cost is depreciable cost which reduces their tax bill.

Taxation of labor requisitions slave labor. It is no different than being required to report to work on a government project without compensation while being required to provide your own clothes, food, and other essentials for life. By comparison, you are contributing more to the government's project than if you were a slave because they were fed and clothed, at least.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 02:59 - ID#413109)
You're interested in gold stocks??
check out CBS market watch, or IQ Chart urls, and put in maximum weeks
or days, your choice, and volume and stochastics- and get a picture of- DROOY, RANGY,RYO HGMCY or
any other gold stock of your choice. Interesting?

Don't you think that charts tell an interesting story, and you can create your own fundamentals to go with
the picture-
1-smart money accumulating?
2-inflation just ahead ?
3-good time to buy when prices are low!
4-volume does indicate buyers are there at these levels, and the pattern is going sideways.
5- why would gold go up when stock markets are topping, or going down?
6-central banks stopped lending gold?
7- the manipulators lost interest?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:05 - ID#284255)
Japan: Major Bank Failures On The Radar Screen Now
 text only 

On Japan's domestic economy, Sakaiya said a possible failure of a major
financial institution would cause panic and worsen the nation's economy, which
would lead to drastic rises in unemployment in related businesses.

"The chain reaction will be enormous," he said.

Japan has over TWO TRILLION dollars in bad debts. It is not a question of *IF*
major banks will fail, only *WHEN*.

And yes, the chain reaction will be enormous.

But all you pollyannas do not understand that the failed Y2 remediation is
being carried out in this economic context. It would be hard enough for a
robust economy to stand up under it. This worldwide economy has no chance at

Won't be long now.
Paul Milne

"If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast"

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:14 - ID#261155)
@ one last thought for you boys
and my is from seneca...and if I have not made myself is I often find I think as I speak... and sometimes I speak when I think... and it is simpoly because, when I am with my friends,
"me thinks I am alone, as much at liberty to speak anything as to think it,"...... ans so with that lil thought friends....good nite... for I have said what I think and spoke what thought......LOL except when I got mixed up and did the vice vesus.....roflmao...... see yea....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:32 - ID#185448)
Hold on, there IS hope.
Would like to present that statement from ASX market watch to the last men standing:

"...Of the 24 Sub-Indices of the All Ordinaries Index the major movers were: Gold up 51.7 points ( 5.9% ) to 933.2; ..."

Golden noses to all of you

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:39 - ID#153110)
In your estimation is Europe more or less vulnerable to Y2K than the USA and would the damage from an extended disruption of computer dependant services and infrastructure be more or less there than in the USA ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:40 - ID#372276)
China May Be Forced To Turn Reserves Into Euros: Economist
Hey lads! I got this from an Indonesian who sent it to a private forum:--


BEIJING, Sept 3 ( AFEC/AGENCIES ) - China may be forced to switch

much its enormous foreign currency reserves into the new euro if the

dollar falls in the future, a leading economist was quoted as saying


While there has been widespread speculation over a devaluation

of the Chinese yuan, state development planning commission economist

Wang Jian said China would have to watch for any fall in the dollar

when elaborating its economic policies, the official China Daily

newspaper reported.

Wang said the US economic boom of recent years was a "bubble,"

caused by a massive influx of foreign capital, which could burst

when the euro is introduced on January 1.

China has around 140 billion dollars' worth of reserves, with

about 60 percent denominated in dollars, the China Daily said. It

also has around 60 billion dollars of US treasury bonds.

Wang said China would reschedule its reserves so there was

around 40 percent in dollars, 40 percent in the euro and 20 percent

in Japanese yen.

China currently also has German marks, Swiss francs and yen


The euro is to be launched with 11 European members from January

1 next year.

The government has insisted in recent weeks that it does not

intend to devalue the yuan, inspite of the Asian crisis which has

undermined its exports, and that it was ready to use its huge

reserves to maintain the official parity.

The People's Bank of China set a rate of around 8.3 yuan to the

dollar in 1994 as part of its policy of a controlled float of the

Chinese currency.

The Hong Kong dollar, which is now closely linked to the yuan,

is pegged to the dollar but has come under intense attack by

speculators in recent weeks.

The China Daily admitted that not all economists agreed with

Wang, but gave prominence to his comments, highlighting the dangers

of a recession in the United States for the Chinese economy.

Wang called for greater trade with Europe "to avoid a sudden

shrinkage in exports in the wake of a US economic recession."

Forty percent of China's exports now go to the United States,

though some pass through Hong Kong.





(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:41 - ID#386245)
Friend of ANOTHER-thanks to USA Gold

9/3/98 Friend of ANOTHER


Poland and China are good customers for the BIS. This is real physical gold they are taking out of circulation, not the pay me back when you have a chance lease deals. They really do have the IMF/Dollar countries over the barrel. Under these conditions it's easy for them to drain the Canadian gold reserves. Soon, these goldless countries will be left with nothing but high yield US dollar treasury notes. Later, when new issues of this paper is yielding 15%-20% these Central Banks will wish for the day when they held an assetthat offered no return! Gold!

The world currency crisis is heading for resolution. I think most of the reallocation of reserve assets is complete. Now the war can commence. The Dollar NEEDS a lower gold price to keep it up. London tried to use the Russian gold story as an excuse to send it down. My understanding is that whatever collateral was freed up from the USSR , the BIS picked up for others. It left the brokers selling leases for almost nothing or 1/2% or so. No one was buying them so the rate just fell on no volume. This was a lucky move for them as the perception was that massive sales were taking place. I don't think the BIS wants to be seen as a currency destroyer so they are doing the buying quietly. Investors know now that $280 will come back rather quickly. I thought it would take a month or so!

Michael, I'm looking for a large default in the paper gold market. With the major CB only buying now something is about to give as the most extended shorts can not cover. A default is most likely part of a game plan to get the ball rolling. This spike in gold will no doubt crush the dollar. The next few months will offer the last period of time to roll out of dollar assets at a good price. Of course, all of this is my opinion from and for the most part, Another's.



A few more days like today and I'm gonna retire to a beach in Queensland.
The theorem that the BIS does not appreciate ( or should I say does cause to appreciate ) sub-280 gold is looking good. cheers, Nick.

John Disney
(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:45 - ID#24135)
Egg yolks never lie...
Jse-gold index up 13 per cent ...

For Tsclaw ...
I love Rangy .. my problem is
that the mali refinery is franc
zone based and thus rangy gets only
half the effect of the RSA rand fall.
But it will go up a lot I think
just on its deeps amd harmony
If the rand strenghthens .. Ill be
among the first selling some pure RSA
items and buying some back ..
For example I bought JCI gold at
3.6 last week .. this morning its
5.6. This is nice action .. Harmony
by the way is 27 .. thats $4.30 ..
I added to that day before that
yesterday at average $3.8. This is
sweet stuff.
What cash I have left .. not
much ..will go to ASA calls I think.
Tried buying MIM down under but
missed my limit.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:45 - ID#358318)
We sadly announce the passing of Mr Stocks...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:47 - ID#17077)
@TYOUNG....where you get exasperated... in confronting individuals who consistently speak in oxymorons. Specifically, people who are split, in conflict with themselves.

There are people who claim they adore gold because if more people buy it, it will make them rich.

Simultaneously, they post article after article denigrating the logic of buying the metal. Ad nauseum, they speak about the impossibility of making any real wealth gains in gold or gold mining shares. "Buy Microsoft and live happily ever after," should be their operative credo.

So, you never know what personality they are assuming from one day to the next. Goldbug today...anti-gold tomorrow.

In love with intellect but never in love...determined to diminish anybody who disagrees with them.

Tom, they are a waste of your time and mine.

Onwards and upwards.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:48 - ID#17077)
...thanks for your posts.

Keep up your fine writing.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 03:52 - ID#185448)
I do not always share your point of view re the impacts of y2k, as the scenarios you draw often are far beyond the wurst case scenarios I would like to go through. But every now and then I stumble over pieces of information that make your view more likely than my piet hopes of a moderate new year celebration in 2k. As Im about to dive into the abyss of PPS-systems ( product planning and steering ( is steering the correct term?? ) I try to imagine what happens, when one of the dominoes falls. Try to figure out what happens within the frame of a single producing unit, which is dependent of say sort a Just in time delivery and then extrapolate it to the nationwide or even global scale of economy. Think its time to become a little pessimistic indeed.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 04:09 - ID#17077)
@PH in LA...thanks for keeping K-1 apprised...
...of some of my musings on this fairly quiet forum.

Glad to see you found them interesting.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 04:18 - ID#185448)
In fact, Im not an expert, I m rather one with a tendency to more or less ignore the possible danger of y2k. But in a european overview I would estimate that this already gives me a place among the well informed 2 % of the total population. Outside of some rare circles y2k is no topic at all. Some days ago I posted that European Commission asks for participation in a study re the impacts of y2k, results are not to be expected before Feb 99. Means: In Feb 99 there is a global overview at near the top of european politics. Dunno if or when results would be in the minds of the very top and I bet it wont be before 2001, when this information reaches the public.

Europe is vulnerable, to what extent is hard to predict. We are less computerized than the US, less linked together by wires on the national scale as well as on a european scale. Maybe the finance industry has a slight advantage, as the implementation of the Euro brought along the need for a fundamental change and renovation of existing dataprocessing-structures.
The production-sector, which is - I think - more atomistic as in the US is maybe more vulnerable. The big producers have outsourced lots of tasks in recent years, so if one domino falls - who knows. As an example - Mercedes-Benz gets production-parts delivered just in time directly to the assembling unit. That means quantity, quality and sequence of the parts have to be perfect. The time frame between order and delivery is usually within one week, so there is not much space for a delay.

I dont have absolutely the slightest idea about how the suppliers of basic goods, like food or energy, are prepared, but as far as my experience so far and my personal estimation are concerned - well as I said just before I read your post: Its time to become a little worried.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:22 - ID#404124)

Six BILLION PEOPLE with an ounce of gold each would cost app:..

1,800,000,000,000 US $.

That is one point eight gazzilion US units of dept.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:30 - ID#26793)
Here is my math for the 20 year period.
9/3/68 gold at $35.40, Dow at 900.36, ounces to buy the Dow = 25.43

9/3/98 gold at $285, Dow at 7682.22, ounces to buy the Dow = 26.96

25.43 x 106.02% = 26.96

Gain over 20 year period = 1.53 ounces ( 6.02% )

Here is the math for the pre-1933 prices:

9/3/68 25.43 ounces X $20.67 = Dow 525.64

9/3/98 26.96 ounces X $20.67 = Dow 557.26

Gain over 20 year period = 31.62 Dow points ( 6.02% )

I used an average gold price of $35.40 for 1968.

The risk in using CPI figures for the same excercise is that they have been tampered with over the years. I believe that using gold is much cleaner and avoids convoluted computations.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:35 - ID#404124)
If gold is not money to those " unaware " folks,what should be?US$?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:38 - ID#153110)
@The Y2K Problem
It's only a problem for those of us with limited resources. The well-funded don't have to think about it. They can just liberally prepare.

If I don't have conclusions, I do have some observations and deductions that I have arrived at by imagination. ( Not fantasy. )

I have some first hand knowledge of the rail industry. It was conveyed to me by someone very experienced in railroads that prevarication is endemic. I observed the same. It is the product, I think, of decades of pervasive government regulation. There is no percentage in honest reporting to government if the dishonesty of a report cannot be proved.
Rail is in the first course of stones in the foundation upon which modern industrial production is built. So, is telecommunications, another industry that has been thoroughly regulated for decades

Few people realize that inventory in the rail and telecommunications businesses is intangible. If you don't have accurate records or access to them, you do not know the status of your inventory in these industries. I am pessimistic about the operational and resultant financial risk to railroads from Y2K and of financial risk to telecommunications. Car locating and call billing are not easy tasks.

I am gloomy about the financial risk to utilities and to their customers from Y2K. If the generating capacity of the grid falls below 100% of demand, the financial consequences will be devastating. The spot price of electricity has no upper bound. Given the margin of surplus generating capacity today, it would be a miracle if more than 100% were continuously available after Y2K.

Take a head count in your locale of the number of people directly or indirectly financially dependant on FRN's from Washington. Include in your count all employees of State and local government. Take a look at the proportion of the federal budget dedicated to paying interest on obligations and imagine that amount increased fourfold or eightfold overnight. If interest is now 25% of the federal budget and increases fourfold, what will taxes have to increase to pay it ? Look at just the bond rate and tell me it could not increase fourfold.

The government is prepared to implement a command and control economy. Tell me it will not do so if the economy it now feeds on is unable to feed it in Y2K.

It is my studied apprehension that life in the USA is going to be more at risk directly or indirectly from the present government than from the unorganized and semi-organized criminals. After the smoke clears and the noise dies down, government will be coming round with a badge and a gun. It may be disease or malnutrition that kills you mediately, but government will be the causa causans.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:39 - ID#404124)
Who determines what the US$ is worth?Does this not change from time to time?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:43 - ID#26793)
Acting PM says ruble should be tied to gold and foreign currency reserves.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:47 - ID#153110)
Your calculations yesterday on the stock market then and now were awesome. Of your latest calculations, I observe you have not offset the DOW equity with the debt liability embedded in the redemption units. Gold, of course, has no liability attached.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:47 - ID#26793)
Dollar trading suspended by the Ukraine "pending an announcement"

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:49 - ID#255226)
CC - approx. SnP high 1200 7/20
wave A 1048 8/17
wave B 1113 8/19
wave C 1.382 x A = 903
Wave C would end at the correction lows of 1997 of one lesser degree. Depending on what happens in the days ahead a fourth wave may develope, or this will be all the correction there is, or this may be an A wave of a much larger correction.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:54 - ID#333126)
six billion with one ounce of Au each
6 x 10^9 ounces is about 190,000 tons ( someone check my maths ) insists the the TOTAL amount of gold ever brought out of the ground is around 120,000 tons

so ... if you wanted to distribute the gold in the world to everyone, the average would be more like 2/3 of an ounce each.

what price gold if everyone wanted just one ounce each? what if each person in each developed country wants 10 ounces each ( per capita income is much higher, yes? ) ?

wishful thinking. reality bites. paper chasing paper.


where's that lighter?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:57 - ID#26793)
Good point. I read recently that in 1929 General Motors had $2.63 in cash for every dollar of debt obligations due in the following year. Today they have 16 cents in cash for debt obligations within the next year. They are using the just-in-time method for purchasing parts; and for covering debt.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 05:59 - ID#43349)
Absolutely! Replace the word gold with dollar and the point remains the same.

When "goldbugs" pine for the price of gold to rise, are they wanting more gold or are they wanting more dollars?

Perhaps some goldbugs are really dollarbugs.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:04 - ID#26793)
Russian Central Bank says it will unfreeze depositor ruble and foreign currency accounts.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:05 - ID#43349)
BIG day
Day before labor day. Globex up, bonds down, dollar up, PM'c up!, oil down.

An up day today, will lead the margined out to raise more cash rather than give it all up.

The day traders are preparing to jump in on the long side.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:05 - ID#153110)
Ah, yes, interest, another expense before taxes also weighting the balance for the insubstantial of credit and against the substantial of flesh and blood.

Soon I fear, nothing will be on time, not just the computers. Things happen when dinner is not on the table just in time.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
Firmer gold price bolsters Australian gold stocks

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:13 - ID#31876)
And the bad news keeps coming in....
"After the close of trading yesterday, Lehman Brothers, America's
fourth-largest broker, warned that its losses from Russia and
other emerging markets will shave third-quarter earnings by
23 percent."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:17 - ID#261155)
@awake again and Lou Paquette, let us just say
if you was a king or some such thing in the times long would be relatively easy to determine the worth of gold by the whinning and crying of the factors producing it....when it was time to see that every commodity was given fair trade value across the board.... and each was assured fair value for labor for what was produced....for if I remember correctly....the Inca, who had no need or use for a medium of exchange....and used/worshipped gold for it's noble properties ( representing the Inca/sun ) , and/or created with it works of art....
and that the Spanish devalued it and silvers worth to the Indians, gleefully, to the value of "Fodder for their Horses", an animal the Indians thought ate metal's from observing the shiny Iron bits the animals all constantly chewed....and even the Astec, valued things on their scarcity...or their ability to be produced....though they did not have a gold standard we have recognized.... they did in fact have one....just by the nature of the process valuation was accrued....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:31 - ID#26793)
Mexican Fin Min blasts credit rating agencies; overly harsh now, covering Asian errors.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:31 - ID#255190)
Donald, Mozel, Fred
Alot of great thoughts. Persist, please.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:33 - ID#411440)
BART: Could we have an update on gold and silver lease rates?
I will not buy anything in precious metals unless I can see how
lease rates are acting. If lease rates are still down, yesterdays
action in gold and silver may be just a dead cat bounce. Thank you
in advance.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:36 - ID#153110)
@The Corporation
is the Insubstantial Creature of Credit that sucks lifeblood from the flesh and blood that inhabit the economic world side by side with it. Government creates the credit and the corporation. Government in America is the father-mother of vampires.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:36 - ID#242325)

for 9/4/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 9/3/98 close: 11.22

Return on current trade: 9.57%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 21.45%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -10.85%

Market Commentary:

Thursday definitely turned out to have a bearish tone, but it was
far from a bloodbath, as bulls managed to defend key support levels
around 970 SPX and 7600 DJIA, at least for the time being. These support
levels are very critical to the bulls chances for any further rally, and
if they give way, expect an onslaught of selling to follow. Similarly,
the bears need to keep a lid on the market at the 990 SPX and 7800 Dow
resistance levels to keep the pressure on the bulls. The market failed
to show its hand Thursday, as it remained trapped in a trading range
between 970-990 SPX, while bulls and bears duked it out. Friday's
trading should produce a breakout from this range, and set the trend for
the next 1-2 days. We expect a breakdown below 970 SPX to lead to a test
of Tuesday's intraday lows around 940 SPX. If this level then fails, the
crash is on. However, if instead the market manages to break out of
Thursday's range to the upside, there is still extremely strong
resistance at 1000-1010 SPX which we would expect to stop the advance.
While we do not expect it to occur, a breakout above the 1010 area would
then target 1050 SPX.
Our proprietary buy/sell indicator gave a second buy signal at the
close Thursday. For now we are choosing to ignore it, since this
indicator does not work well in powerfully trending markets. The
downtrend since July 20th certainly fits the bill of a powerfully
downtrending market. So, in this case we will let the trend be our
friend as they say, and remain in our current Ursa trade. Even if the
market were to resume a short-term rally from here, we would expect it
to last no longer than 1-2 days and take us no higher than 1010 SPX,
with an outside chance at 1050 SPX.
Market internals have turned down once again after only two days of
marginally positive breadth. Decliners beat out advancers Thursday by
better than a 2 to 1 margin. New highs shrank further to only 12 issues,
while new lows began expanding again, reaching 461 issues. The Dow
Transports took it on the chin again, dropping 78 points ( 2.9% ) to a new
52 week low. This does not bode well for the Dow Industrials, which
should shortly follow suit to new lows in the days ahead. Financials
also took it on the chin, with the NYSE financial index dropping 2.5%
led by sharp declines in brokerage stocks. Merrill Lynch, a bellweather
of the market, fell 5.8%. The performance of the financials is usually a
very accurate gauge of the present and future health of the market. The
performance of the financials Thursday is screaming sell, sell, sell!
The recent sharp rally in gold and gold stocks also seems to be hinting
at some incipient instability or danger in the days ahead.
Short-term sentiment readings were neutral Thursday, as the weakness
of the last two days has apparently scared some speculators away from
buying the dips. The OEX put/call ratio was 1.26, still in the neutral
region. The Rydex ratio was unchanged at 135% as fund switchers are
taking a wait and see attitude about the current fate of the market. All
in all, not much input from the sentiment readings.
So, we have a situation where an oversold market appears to be on
the verge of either some futher rebound rally, or a major collapse. Our
buy/sell indicator says 1-2 more days rally is not entirely out of the
question. But the breakdown in market internals says the rebound rally
is over, and the next and most powerful phase of the crash wave is about
to get underway. For now we think it best to side with the message the
market internals are sending, as we feel it is clear and unambiguous.
Therefore we will remain in the Ursa fund until the dust settles. Bulls
are fighting the tape on this one, and we think the tape will win.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:36 - ID#31876)
More on Hedge Fund Losses...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:45 - ID#242325)
Kaplan predicting another big move up in POG today. With gold up 60 cents already despitre a rebound in the dollar, looks like he may be right.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:46 - ID#153110)
Conclusion of much thought:

(Fri Sep 04 1998 06:58 - ID#259400)
@Farfel,et al
Magnificent post of yours was run on K2 yesterday. We need more of that type of thing. Just wanted to let you know I miss your postings on K2. Well, perhaps not all of them, but I'm sure you understand what I mean. Let me give you my take on the market. I think we have one or two days left of this counter trend rally before the stock market makes another hard leg down I would not be surprised to see another 100 points lopped off the S&P 500 and 800 to 1000 lopped off the Dow. That would get us down to about 875 on the S&P and 64-6600 on the Dow. Gold, on the other hand, I now believe is sending a new signal. All along I said gold was predicting deflation. With the recent spike up in gold I now say gold is predicting DEPRESSION. As long as gold was predicting the rate, or lack of, inflation it was trending down. Now it is predicting collapse, turmoil, flight to safety, etc. I now feel gold is predicting the collapse of a bunch of hedge funds and derivatives. This will lead to a monster bunch of short covering as the hedge funds try to raise cash to cover their losses. This could get interesting. Every 10 points down in the stock market means someone has to cover something. It all backs up to gold which is the beginning of everything. Just one mans opinion.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:05 - ID#288115)
And I know just the little gadget you could hook up to it. In this order click Automotive-products-AuraGen. Huh? This how we solve our little problems maybe?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:06 - ID#255190)
RJ re: Donald's numbers
Donald's way of comparison removes the $ as an intermediary and complicating factor. It compares a thing to a thing without the intervening medium of exchange to cloud the issue.

If the DOW were to fall 5% and gold rise 1% then you would be at break even for those twenty years.

The thing that I find difficult about your math is that you build your case using inflation numbers which, to my thinking, are questionable. It is difficult to know just what real inflation is in the USA because we have no reference point other than 'government' numbers. Do you trust those numbers? I don't. There is to much self interest to keep them clean. A political tool if ever there was one ( SS, Medicare payment indexing, etc ) .

Another thing is people's income and what it buys. You live in a rarified realm of wealth that most people have never experienced. I assume you make well into the 6 figures. Most of the people I know have had to throw an additional person from their family into the workforce simply try to stay even with their parent's standard of living. Kids in high school spend 20 to 40 hrs per week working in retail at the expense of studying.

I remember when my parents bought a car in the sixties. It was an extravagance that they spent $3,000 for. This was a top quality Volvo. So I'd say this would be comparable to a family paying $20,000 for a family car today. Are we paying more for that car or not? I don't know. My dad was making $800 per month then. I'd have to be making over $5,000 per month to equal his salary as it relates to buying that car. I am not even by half.

You are very sure of yourself and very successful at what you do. I think alot of that comes from your income and the lifestyle to which you are accustomed. Same for BuGaL. Most people in the USA and in the world at large do not have your income or experience. They live on the edge of insolvancy and major financial ruin. This is not because they are stupid, lazy or morally bancrupt. When you live like that you are not so sure of yourself and success comes in much smaller increments.

The system of money that has been very good to you has been very hard on most everyone else; those people you may never meet because they do not run in your circle of friends. You may find that your attitude changes when your circumstances do. Not that I wish this upon you. Its just that you are sitting in a very comfortable place wagging your finger at others who you have not met nor lived in their shoes.

What we see is always colored by our values and prejudices. Live a different life and you will veiw things differently. You are in your own skin. Other's in theirs.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:08 - ID#37463)
The Labor Day Bull Market
Well ladies & gents, its now or never for a Labor Day bull paper market. From the looks of the various world markets we should have quite a ride today ( sort of like riding a bull-er bear ) . I'm impressed that gold is up this morning despite being down earlier in the day. Hopefully we can now hook our wagons to a winning star. Just when I was losing hoping of my investments coming back.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:15 - ID#35571)
And I'm impressed by gold and silver being up at the same time that the dollar is up!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:19 - ID#37463)
You are right there. We rarely get the treat of a rising dollar and POG. Good things might be on the horizon. Is that a light at the end of the tunnel or a train?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:22 - ID#35571)
Oh, so THAT'S what it's all about.
N. KOREA: Demands cash to suspend missile development to Mideast

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:23 - ID#35571)
N. KOREA: Exported $580 mln in missiles to Mideast up to 1992

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:30 - ID#35571)
DOLLAR DOWN: Massive long dollar liquidation hampered the US unit as funds took no chances on the talk of possible rate cuts in the US. The Dow Jones industrial average, which stumbled 100 points, put a damper on hopes for the dollar's quick recovery. At 1600 ET, the dollar was bid at 134.39 yen and 1.7295 marks, compared with 137.70 yen and 1.7473 marks late Wednesday in New York.

So I would think rate cuts would cause bonds and stocks to go UP. Wouldn't they be more prudent to wait till AFTER and take the profit?

Or could it be that "analysts" sometimes do not think before they write? Or maybe they do, but don't care to talk about the REAL reasons.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:39 - ID#35571)
Some good stuff here
So where do you raise cash fast when you gotta pay the margin man?

"This was underpinned by the fact that gold has a 48-hour settlement period, shorter than almost all equity markets--except Hong Kong and South Korea--and is highly liquid," she said.
More positively though, O'Connell said that this time around gold was
coming to the rescue via the covering of profitable short positions by speculative elements fearing financial sector losses.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:40 - ID#153110)
Precisely. Thanks for the link. I usually bypass graphics pages and never would have found it.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:42 - ID#45173)
Europe up, Asia mixed
I got no guess for US markets today.

Question: In the 1930s deflation, dollar cash was king. But dollar cash was not purely a debt instrument. Other nations owed the US money, rather than the other way around. This made dollars more rare when they defaulted on us, but the defaults did not reduce the buying power of the dollar. This time, as the US comes under pressure to pay back debts at a time when asset values are dropping, might not the dollar drop in buying power at the same time the number of dollars drops? Will the value drop relative not only to other currencies but to hard assets as well?


(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:51 - ID#427357)

One of the most critically acclaimed precious metals stock analysts virtually disappeared from cyber-space about a year ago. It was the inimitable Canadian analyst Claude Cormier, also known as the "goldbug." Well, we are very much pleased to announce, HE'S BACK! And he believes Precious Metal Stocks are about to take off BIG TIME!

For those who may not know the goldbug, his detailed and insightful analysis of little known precious metals companies were always par excellence. In years past he has selected some real winners -- especially silver mining stocks.

Although he has been bearish for some time, he now believes gold stocks are now on their launching pad.

"The truth is that gold is in a bull market in many world currencies. The
truth is that the US$ is now overvalued in terms of many of these
currencies including the Canadian and Australian dollars. The truth is
that gold is cheap, extremely cheap in $US terms. This imbalance will be
corrected. Be ready, this day is coming and will give birth to the biggest bull market in precious metals of all times."

Goldbug shares his FIRST PICK with us -- perennially one of his favorites. His selection and reasons may be seen at the following URL -- as usual it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" of the URL before posting it to the Internet:

B. Garino
(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:59 - ID#263135)
Gold and Siver Newsletter
The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries ( Washington, D.C. ) , a non-profit industry trade association that represents scrap and primary producers and consumers of ferrous, nonferrous metals, as well as nonmetallics,recently published a market review of gold and silver in its bi-weekly "Commodities Report" ( August 26, 1998 ) . For a free copy of this 1,100 word newsletter, e-mail Bob Garino at

(Fri Sep 04 1998 07:59 - ID#35571)
Here comes the second place horse, coming up on the outside.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:00 - ID#254321)
Gold since 1792 -- cycles in the purchasing power of gold.
Donald: Your numbers would be even better if they began in 1792. The unrelenting inflation of the US dollar on average has cancelled out most long term gains in the US equities markets for those who blindly buy and hold.

But those who have the sense to buy equities when it is time to buy equities, and gold/gold stocks when it is time to buy gold/gold stocks, gain the most. Gold and gold equities tend to stagnate or drop for years, and rise spectacularly, making up for the decades of down. As we know equities in general are much more likely to go up than down, but the downs are crushing when they come, and wipe out most of the gains, except inflation related rises.

Those who are nimble invest in the markets when there is little inflation, and bail out before it returns. All the 'fiat' money spin doctors really do is extend the period when general equities look good, and shorten the inflationary period. But no one can escape the times of recconing when inflation returns with a vengeance, and gold shines biefly.

It will be interesting this time to see how soon the 'fiat'currency gurus return to start over, and the cycle begins anew -- some years from now.

Do you have any idea why the purchasing power of gold has a 45-60 or so year cycle going from $0.50 to about $1.20 ( using $1.00 as the reference ) , even when the US was on the gold standard ( 1792- 1931 ) -- and there was no inflation in the US dollar? There were three complete cycles during this time.

I think this cycle is very important, because we are clearly heading down the deflationary side right now, and bottoming. If this deflationary period of gold is ending, this will amplify the subsequent rise, since the FED's US dollar inflationary policies will not end spontaneously.

John Disney
(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:07 - ID#24135)
dead cat bounce ??
For Rhody..
Id like to see the lease rates too
but you cant have everything. For
info, "Get" give a signal on gold
as of last night. Id say odds
strong that wave 5 down is OVER ..
We are on or near supports in all
currencies .. either we move up or
this was the mother of all fake outs.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:08 - ID#30126)
More talk of Russia and gold..."Chernomyrdin suggested covering roubles with gold and foreign.."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:10 - ID#427357)

Not yet confirmed, but it appears South Africa's Johannesburg Gold Index is up about 10% in early morning trading.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:11 - ID#30126)
Russia and currency I mean gold backing...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:13 - ID#30126)
A currency board better than gold? Gold is impure?? Confused ANALysts.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:17 - ID#242325)
September 3, 6:17 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW--US recession risk up for '99 - Kaufman

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK, Sept 3 ( Reuters ) - The risk that the U.S. economy could brush up against recession in 1999
has risen, in part due to the stock market's recent setbacks, said economist Henry Kaufman.

``The risks for an American recession have increased so that sometime next year, in mid- to late 1999, we
may be flirting with recession,'' Kaufman told Reuters.

Kaufman, president of Henry Kaufman & Co. Inc., an international economic consulting and investment
management firm, said the American economy has gone through a period of ``substantial financial exuberance.''

That exuberance suggested that the American economic expansion was unending and that profit growth would continue to barrel ahead very
significantly, said Kaufman.

``At some point, as history always shows, those imbalances start to get corrected and that may be starting to happen right now,'' he said.

If a recession does develop, lower Treasury bond yields will be associated with it, said Kaufman, who was chief economist at the former Salomon
Brothers Inc. in August 1982 when his accurate prediction that interest rates would move dramatically lower began a long bond and stock market rally.

``In the next American recession, the long government bond yield will fall to four to five percent,'' said Kaufman,

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 42nd Annual Economic Conference in June 1998, Kaufman predicted that ``today's stock market euphoria''
would be followed by a sharp stock market setback.

Speaking with Reuters on Thursday, Kaufman said stock prices have seen their highs for this business cycle.

``I suspect that the highs that were reached a few months ago in the equity market will not be surpassed and we have probably started some sort of
decline in the market, the speed of which depends on a variety of factors,'' he said. ``But have we seen the highs? Yes.''

But for the stock market's recent drop to have an impact on economic fundamentals like consumer spending and business investment, Kaufman said
equity prices would have to erode more than they have up until now.

He said the increase in financial asset values in recent years had undoubtedly impacted the economy, affecting consumer spending, business
investment and mergers and acquisitions. A reversal of that trend would also affect the economy in the opposite direction, he said.

But Kaufman said the problem for economists and monetary policy makers was the lack of a good analytical framework for calculating the size and
specifics of that impact.

``The analytical framework is poor,'' he said. ``A lot of judgment is involved here and this is a real dilemma for the Federal Reserve.''

Still, Kaufman said that the fundamental backdrop for the American economy was probably deteriorating. He pointed to a petering out of upward
momentum in corporate profit growth. And he called the situations in Russia and Asia ``precarious,'' with no immediate amelioration in sight.

Kaufman said the problem with much of the current analysis of Russia's credit crisis was that there is a tendency to say that in a narrowly defined
economic and financial sense, Russia is not that important from a global perspective.

But Kaufman takes a different view, one emphasizing the dangerous implications of Russia's decision to move toward a moratorium on debt

``The decision by Russia to move towards a moratorium on debt payments is a significant development with significant global repercussions because it
challenges the whole structure of financial arrangements in the post-World War Two period and may encourage others to do the same,'' said Kaufman.

He said world financial markets were undergoing a mix of credit and liquidity crises.

``There is no liquidity crisis in U.S. government bonds or high-grade instruments,'' he noted. ``The liquidity crisis is in the marginal credit

To resolve that crisis will take time, he said.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:20 - ID#284255)
I actually write very, very little on Y2k.
More so I try to pick out the pieces that help raise awareness.
Other people's well written and poignant pieces.

I would guess that I have read well over 15,000 pages on Y2k
And to my mind's eye have decided that it is quite real.

The hard part now, is to try and visualize the consequences.
And this, I dare say, is harder than extrapolating the POG.

The domino effect and the interconectivity of this one globe,
Is one of the major reasons why we will all feel the effects.

If we were to live in a quiet hamlet somewhere - quite isolated.
Then I would worry little.

But when I go to town and see what products are for sale and where they are made.
I start to worry a lot.

And then the 'just in time' condition just multiplies the worry.

But then I think of Alfred E Nueman's famous line.
"What me worry"

I might be a bit of a 'worry-wart'

But I have read plenty to be worried about.
And I am pretty dissappointed in what I have read of late.
And the lack of it.

Seems like the big boys are starting to get rather concerned too.

I guess we'll have to wait till next year to see how much we really need to worry about.

The only trouble with that is being locked into a position from which it will be hard to extract oneself from.

I am trying to approach Y2k with the view of being prepared for a 6 month holiday - well away from the crowds mind you.

Hopefully they'll be well into putting the pieces back together by the end of my holiday.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:20 - ID#263379)
Wall Street Week - "No love for Gold"
I had the unexpected surprise when I inquired about the Cappiello Gold fund and ended up speaking with Frank Cappiello himself yesterday. I wanted to buy into the fund but was abruptly told that the fund was closed. Frank was very cold and even sounded annoyed that I brought up the subject "GOLD". I informed him that I believed that a major gold bull market was approaching. He said, "Gold is going down" due to the Russian gold sale. ( AN UNBIASED SPOKESPERSON WOULD MENTION THE POLISH, JAPANESE, OR BIS BUYING! ) Well, let me say that his tone was such that I expect a major bashing of gold tonight on "Wall Street Week".
I informed Frank of the 8,000 Ton Short position of gold and that it represented 25% of the gold held by the Central Banks world wide. I couldn't have bored him more, because that statement was met with a stearn but polite "so what" and good buy.

He was not the jolly Wall Street Week good guy, but came accross to me as
an arrogant SOB. Perhaps he was having a bad day with his banking & gold derivatives.

On a different subject, for those that follow the Words of "ANOTHER", I have many of his statements. Here is one of his credibility predictions:

March 7, 1998
"Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have LOST CONTROL! I EXPECT A BREAK ABOVE $360 TO CREATE AN ALLOUT RUN TO INFINITY, BEFORE YEAR END. PHYSICAL GOLD SHOULD BE PURCHASED FOR A LIFETIME HOLDING, NOT A TRADE."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:21 - ID#35571)
Maybe start your researches here?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:25 - ID#431200)
Sony's Deal With Sinatra Kidnapper Raises Questions
Sony's Deal With Sinatra Kidnapper Raises Questions
In December 1963, singer Frank Sinatra bought his son's freedom by paying kidnapper Barry Keenan and two henchmen a $240,000 ransom.
Thirty-five years and an abbreviated prison sentence later, Keenan, 58, stands to get several times that amount. This time the money comes courtesy of Sony Pictures Entertainment, which appears to have shoved aside common sense and ethics to buy Keenan's version of how he masterminded Frank Sinatra Jr.'s kidnapping.
Sinatra is understandably bothered that the guy who kidnapped him at gunpoint at 20--then lied after his capture, proclaiming that the young man was in on it as a publicity stunt--stands to see a dime. So his lawyers, citing a state law preventing criminals from profiting from their crimes, got a court order temporarily preventing Sony from paying any money to Keenan and Joseph Amsler, his surviving partner in the crime.
The Sinatra movie deal is part of a troubling ethic in Hollywood in which selling an incident in your life to exploit for a TV movie or feature film is seen as something of an entitlement, regardless of your behavior. All you have to do is be in the right place at the right time, be in the wrong place at the wrong time or do something sufficiently outrageous to become a movie pitch.
If your child is rescued from a well and it makes it on the daily CNN cycle, an agent is right behind the rescue workers with a contract in hand. Get lost in the snowy mountains for a couple of days, and someone will try to turn it into a movie of the week. Marry a stranger in a shopping mall in a publicity stunt, and let the casting begin.
Keenan's story goes like this: He plotted the kidnapping while high on painkillers, served a relatively small portion of what originally was a life sentence and then rebuilt his life after battles with drugs and alcohol to become a real estate developer. He says he's remorseful about his role in the kidnapping, especially for lying that Sinatra was in on the plot, which stained Sinatra's reputation and has dogged him ever since.
So Keenan, after years of public silence, is on a mea culpa blitz. Still referring to his victim informally as "Junior," Keenan spoke of the kidnapping to J. Randy Taraborrelli for his 1997 book "Sinatra: Behind the Legend" and then repeated his remarks to the Los Angeles weekly New Times for a story in January, which caught Hollywood's eye. He subsequently talked to People magazine and TV interviewer Bryant Gumbel.

From Ex-Con to Casino Consultant
When Sony first bought the rights in January, the Hollywood trades reported that Sony spent about $750,000. But Sinatra's lawyers said in recently filed court papers that the amount could be as much as $1.5 million.
No doubt making the story even more appealing to Sony is the characterization of Keenan in press accounts as a "mega-developer," something of an ex-con-turned-Donald Trump. Conveniently missing are some bumps in his career that might take a bit of the hyperbole out of the story.
From 1988 to 1992, Keenan was a consultant and special assistant at Commerce Casino, a Southern California card club. He was fired and filed a wrongful termination lawsuit. Keenan says the settlement prevents him from talking about the reasons.
Keenan until one year ago worked as a consultant to the Sanders family in Mississippi, which has been looking to develop a casino project in Biloxi.
"We did not renew his contract," said businessman R. David Sanders, who declined to elaborate.
Says Keenan: "We had a misunderstanding over the direction of what to do with this."
Keenan is in the early stages of trying to develop another casino resort project in Biloxi ( he also splits his time between Los Angeles and Lake Whitney, Texas ) .
But he's hardly the next Steve Wynn--an angle Sony would no doubt love to exploit--that various accounts of his story suggest.
Sinatra's lawyer Richard Specter says that his client isn't seeking to prevent a movie from being made about the kidnapping, just keeping the money out of Keenan's hands under a state law that forbids felons from profiting from their crimes.
Sony, which is more than happy to promote most of its movie projects, declined repeated requests for comment about why it made the deal with Keenan to buy his account of what remains Hollywood's most infamous kidnapping. Columbia Pictures' president, Amy Pascal, bought the project for director Betty Thomas.
In court papers, the studio is trying to distance itself from the controversy it created. The studio argues that the law requires Sinatra to go after Keenan and Amsler, not Sony, for any money he believes they don't deserve.
But Sony does briefly raise in court papers the constitutionality of the law, which is similar to one passed in the wake of the Son of Sam slayings in the 1970s when there were buyers for killer David Berkowitz's story. That law was later struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. California's version was rewritten, and state officials believe it now passes legal muster.
Citing Sinatra's opposition to the movie deal, Keenan sent a memo to his agent at Creative Artists Agency saying that he will donate the money to charities of his choice. He does ask in the memo, a copy of which Keenan faxed The Times, that some money be given to Amsler and to the family of the late John Irwin, the third kidnapper. He also says that Sinatra should rest assured that he'll be portrayed in a positive light.
In an interview with The Times, Keenan says he doesn't need the money because of his real estate success and would rather give it away than see it wasted by a movie company. He also invited The Times to monitor his giving the money away to charities, which include alcohol-recovery programs.
"Rather than have the studio keep that money, or have it fritter to the bottom line of a producer's budget, we want to capture those funds for special charities so it does some good," Keenan said.
Specter says he and Sinatra are wary.
"I'm skeptical," Specter said. "Keenan says he'll turn around and give it to a good cause. History shows he's not of that moral character to start with. This is a guy who spent a lifetime telling stories."
Specter cites a story attributed to Keenan in both the Taraborrelli book and the New Times article in which Keenan says that he periodically runs into Sinatra, who lives in Clarence, N.Y., on the cocktail-party circuit. In one version, he is quoted as saying they nod to each other but don't speak.
Sounds like a perfect touch for a movie script, if it were only true. Said Specter: "He's never been to a cocktail party with my client. It just isn't true. My client would never nod his head at Keenan. He'd be in the bathroom throwing up."

Keenan blames the writers of the accounts, even though near identical versions are attributed to him in both the Taraborrelli book and in the New Times article.
"I ran into Junior at a concert at Pepperdine University five or six years ago, maybe less. After the concert I ran into him backstage," he says now.
Not helping matters are other comments attributed to Keenan that seemingly try to put a positive spin on the kidnapping. In Taraborrelli's book, for example, quotes attributed to Keenan make it sound as if he was really out to do the Sinatra family a favor in words that smack of a Hallmark-moment kidnapping.
"Virtually everything I had outlined in my plan of operation in terms of how the Sinatras would be affected had worked," he is quoted as saying. "Father and son were hugging. Divorced parents were reunited in the moment. And the public now viewed Sinatra in a sympathetic light rather than as a hoodlum. They had a big celebration party that night. It couldn't have worked better if they had paid me to do it, which, by the way, they hadn't."
Keenan says that the words are out of context, that it was part of his drug-induced rationale for the kidnapping.
But he then adds: "It certainly did bring father and son closer together at the time."
Specter argues that it's irrelevant where Keenan wants to donate the money because, under the law, none of it should pass through his hands. Specter and his client want the money put into a court-established trust so Sinatra, not Keenan, can decide where it goes.
"It's not Keenan's money to give away," Specter says. "If it's paid to Amsler and Keenan, we never see it again."
All these things are matters Sony presumably should have thought of. The studio isn't likely to find much public support for writing checks to convicted felons who can gain from the very crimes they committed, no matter where the proceeds eventually end up.
But in Hollywood, it's the deal that always comes first.

Copyright 1998 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:25 - ID#411440)
EJ: I agree with you that if we go the depression route,
this time it will be different from the 1930's, not only for the
reasons you give ( US is a debtor nation ) but because any new
public works programme to support employment will need to be paid for by printing even more debt instruments.

This time round cash will not be king because this time
we go into a depflation. Not a stagflation but a depflation.

This is why Buffett bought his silver. He probably bought gold
as well. Although depflations are supposed to be impossible
according to classical economic theory, the same was said for
stagflation, until we actually experienced one in the 1970's.

IMHO However, if the Fed lowers interest rates, we go into
a hyperstagflation instead. This would also be most unkind to
the common man, but good for pms and any hard asset. In fact,
I can't think of a single scenario over the next year that would
be negative for gold, short of the paper powers utterly demonetizing
the stuff, and turning it into a jewellery commodity. But the
United States missed the boat on that one when the Europeans
announced the 15% gold backing for the EURO.

Your comments on this would be most welcome.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:26 - ID#340155)
Why hold Gold?

illustrates why owning gold beats owning greenbacks. What

is unusual is it's a federal reserve bank URL. Even a federal

reserve bank ( Minneapolis ) makes the case for gold!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:27 - ID#348129)
@Why would one expect CB's to be bullish ??? "THEY ARE SOLELY RESPOSIBLE FOR GOLD'S CURRENT WOES"
" I spoke to a few central banks this morning and they seem to be more on the bearish than the bullish side, the dealer said." --- DUHH ???

Gold firmer in Europe on overnight gains

LONDON, Sept 4 ( Reuters ) - Gold build on overnight gains in Europe on Friday morning, helped along by short-covering, a weaker dollar and further declines in world stock markets, dealers said.

Gold was last quoted at $285.40/$285.90 an ounce, up from the New York close of $284.70/$285.20.

Dealers said gold had bounced back into the range it held before last week's sharp falls to prices not seen in 19 years.

``We will continue to watch the U.S. dollar and other commodity currencies,'' one dealer said.

Gold ended higher in New York and the trend continued in Asia as short-holders bought back TOCOM precious metals contracts as the dollar rebounded against the yen.

The yen strengthened later against the dollar and was quoted at 1030 GMT at 135.33 yen/dollar.

Some dealers said the market seemed to be confused by bullion's present levels.

``I think the market is wondering why we are up here, the move yesterday was quite sharp,'' another dealer said.

She said the market had conflicting views of gold's direction.

``One is that we either try $290.00 but if they get bored with that idea, the downside is back to $278.00 and lower. I spoke to a few central banks this morning and they seem to be more on the bearish than the bullish side,'' the dealer said.

With the dollar drifting around the 135 yen area and producer currencies like the South African rand and Australian dollar stable for the moment, gold should just drift at current levels, dealers said.

``I think one of the biggest problems is that everybody is ignoring what would have been classed as fundamentals. You trade by the seat of your pants at the moment,'' one dealer said.

Bullion blipped briefly higher after news from Russia that acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin told parliament's upper house that Russia should tie its battered rouble currency to the country's gold and foreign reserves, although the country would initially face inflation.

Chernomyrdin, who faces a confirmation hearing in the State Duma lower house this afternoon, was describing a system similar to the kind of currency board successfully used in Argentina, which would cover every rouble in circulation with reserves, pegging it to foreign currency to increase confidence in the currency.

``We will strictly tie the monetary mass to the gold and foreign reserves of the central bank,'' Chernomyrdin told the Federation Council upper house. ``At that stage, of course, prices will rise, but that way every rouble will be backed by gold and foreign currency reserves. In other words, the rate will be unbreakably stable.''

But dealers said the Russian proposal could mean a bullish and bearish outlook for gold.

On the bullish side, it would mean Russia would not be able to sell any gold reserves while on the bearish side, it would place a question on what would happened to the gold reserves the country used as loan collateral.

Silver was last quoted at $4.99/$5.01 an ounce, up from the close in New York at $4.93/$4.94. Dealers said silver was looking good on the technical charts and could move higher above the $5.00 an ounce level.

Platinum was last quoted at $368.00/$370.00, $0.50 down from the New York close while palladium was last quoted $9 higher at $286.00/$291.00 from the previous close at $277.00/281.00.

Dealers said palladium moved higher on new fears about supplies from Russia, the world's largest producer of palladium.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:28 - ID#431200)
Latin American credit-worthiness was called into question

Friday, September 4, 1998

Latin Debt Warning Sounded
Credit: Moody's cuts ratings on Brazil and Venezuela, adding to regional jitters and stinging markets. Mexican peso dives.
By CHRIS KRAUL, Times Staff Writer
 Latin American credit-worthiness was called into question Thursday as Moody's Investors Service downgraded Brazilian and Venezuelan bonds and issued warnings about Mexico and Argentina.
The downgrades, on the heels of Colombia's decision Monday to devalue its currency, heightened jitters across the region and sent markets tumbling anew.
"We think circumstances have fundamentally changed. It's the external environment, the reduced availability and higher cost of financial resources for emerging markets" that prompted the downgrade, said Moody's senior analyst Ernesto Martinez-Alas.
The "external environment" meant the growing cloud over all emerging markets as the effects of financial crises spread from Asia and Russia.
"It's not the news the region needed on a day like this," said James Upton, Latin American equity strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "The markets have lost the ability to make a distinction between countries or look at fundamentals, and they are really in a panic. They have turned on emerging markets and on Latin America."
Meanwhile, Moody's today said it also may downgrade China's foreign-currency-denominated debt, as China faces weakening exports and falling foreign investment.
In Latin America, Brazil's main stock index fell 8.6%. South America's largest economy also revealed it has spent more than $10 billion since July to defend its currency, the real, leaving about $60 billion in foreign reserves.
That's about what Brazil spent during a run on the currency late last year, which it successfully fought off with an austerity program and interest rate hike.
"The more negative stimuli that hit the market, the greater becomes the prospect of a self-fulfilling prophecy regarding further contractions in the market," said Lawrence Goodman, economist at Santander Investment.
At a meeting with Latin finance ministers in Washington, the International Monetary Fund offered support for Latin American economic policies but stopped short of pledging immediate cash.
In Mexico, stocks slid 2.4% and the peso plunged to a record low of 10.14 to the dollar, the first time it has closed below the psychologically important barrier of 10.
Some analysts predict Brazil may have to raise interest rates to keep capital from fleeing the country, although few expect a devaluation. The administration of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso is reluctant to raise rates because that would stifle growth and worsen the government's deficit.
Analysts including Edmar Bascha, economist at Bank BBA-Creditanstalt in Sao Paulo and a former Cardoso advisor, reiterated the need for fiscal reforms to reduce government spending.
Moody's cut Brazil's bonds by a notch to B2 from B1, or five levels below investment grade.
The downgrade means Brazil will pay a much higher interest rate as it rolls over or adds to its $220 billion in dollar-denominated debt. Over the next 15 months, Brazil is expected to refinance about $15 billion of its debt, said Jaime Valdivia, Latin American debt strategist at Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter, Discover.
The lower rating, which puts Brazil in the same category as Bulgaria, means Brazil will have to pay 20% interest on 10-year bonds, up from 13% now, Valdivia said.
That will only add to Brazil's yawning budget deficit, which now represents about 7.5% of economic output, or twice the prudent ratio. Moody's downgrade did not come as a complete surprise--Brazil had been on Moody's "watch" list.
"If they continue to lose reserves, they will have to tighten up monetary policy, raise interest rates. Ideally, that should come with a new fiscal package that would include significant spending cuts and reforms," Bascha said.
But Brazil's leaders are working a delicate balancing act in that they can't raise rates so high that they fall into "the Russian trap," lifting them to a level that borrowers cannot pay, Bascha added.
Venezuela's debt was also downgraded to B2 on a day that saw the government fail for a third time to sell the state-owned aluminum business, proceeds from which are needed to lessen a budget shortfall. Venezuelan stocks plunged 7.5%.

WHO'S IN CHARGE? The world's global economic leadership is making itself scarce. A1

Crumbling Latin Markets
Latin American stock markets plunged anew on Thursday after Moody's Investors Service cut Brazil's and Venezuela's debt ratings. The main share index in Brazil plunged 8.6% to a two-year low. In Mexico, the Bolsa index slid 2.4% after having rebounded Wednesday from a two-year low.
Bovespa index, monthly closes and latest:
Thursday: 6,218.51
Bolsa index, monthly closes and latest:
Thursday: 3,102.39
Source: Bloomberg News

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:28 - ID#350194)
I don't know if anybody finally straightened RJ out last night, ( got sleepy went to bed and have'nt reviewed all of last evening yet ) , when he was saying something to the effect that stocks are always a much better investment than Gold ( At least I think that's what he was trying to prove ) . AAR - Here is some fodder for the fray. Year end closing prices of the Dow followed by Gold. 1938 DJ - 154.76 Au - $35. 1978 DJ - 805.01 Au - $208.1 1979 DJ - 838.74 Au - $459. 1980 DJ 963.99 Au $594.9
RJ - Please plug these figures into your computer and do all the fancy footwork with numbers that you can think of and then publish your astonishing results for all to see. Thanks. Cheers.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:29 - ID#373284)
Goldteck, Namaste' make absolutely no mistake and never be mislead...
Hollywood is run by some of the most ruthless people on the planet bar none...they could watch you bleed to death while being in a position to help you...then make a movie about it long after you are gone and their heartbeat would not change one flutter...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:30 - ID#288186)
Here's the Employment Report numbers.....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:37 - ID#25171)
It might be interesting to see if the IMF let them tie their currency to GOLD
It could give ideas to others

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:37 - ID#348129)
@LIBERTY 08:20 --- Extremely Interesting Information
Your experience in dealing with an "Equity Fund" on purchase of Gold units really backs up the point that Wall Street "IS AT WAR" with anything that is not Bonds/Equities ( i.e. Paper ) .
They make their million salary selling paper top the lemmings.
Gold is real and is limited, and can't be printed. The hundreds of thousands in the Equity industry cannot enrich themselves, even if they were selling Gold at $10,000/oz --- there is simply not enough of it.
It's stories like yours that make me an even bigger Gold Bulll ............l

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:38 - ID#427357)

Title: Euro Precious Metals Review

Most of article is just a myopic review of gold trading in the past 24-hours. CNN's "spin" was hidden in the middle of the rhetoric. Its deceptive "spin" stated:

"Conventional wisdom has it that gold rises in times of trouble as it
is bought as a risk hedge, and then falls away when conditions settle down.

The truth of the matter is that, more often than not, it is bought in
times of stability, or impending crisis, as an insurance policy and is then cashed in."

In the crash of October 1987, gold trading was initially chaotic
then turned into a "flood of sales" as money managers cashed in to raise
money for margin calls.

Let's step a few feet back to see what really happened in the period.

From July 1986 GOLD SOARED FROM $340 TO $440 by October of the same year ( an increase of 29%.During the next two months inevitable profit taking set in and gold fell to $380.

From the low of November 1986, GOLD relentlessly rose during the next 13 months to a high of about $500 in December 1987. That's a rise of almost 32%.

Reality was certainly a far cry from the distorted picture CNN

CNN's chacteristically blantant LACK OF impartialliy when conveying news about GOLD should come under severe and critical scrutiny.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:48 - ID#431200)
Recession in Japan. Devaluation in Russia. A sell-off on Wall Street. Each can be seen as an isolate
Falling Prices, Falling ProfitsGlobal Deflationary Pressures Adding to Stock Market Turmoily Tim Smart
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 4, 1998; Page E01

Recession in Japan. Devaluation in Russia. A sell-off on Wall Street. Each can be seen as an isolated event. But viewing them together, some economists and experts see signs of a deflationary wave in which assets -- be they Japanese office buildings, Venezuelan bonds, Middle Eastern oil or Brazilian stocks -- are being marked down by the day. It's akin to a global tag sale.

So far, the wave has had a limited effect on the U.S. economy, where overall prices for goods and services are still rising, albeit modestly. But some players in the economy, particularly manufacturers, farmers and producers of raw materials, are struggling with falling prices that are crimping profits. This leads some to wonder whether the U.S. stock market's current turmoil is, in part, a reflection of this global deflationary pressure.

Deflation, a situation in which prices fall rather than rise, is an unknown for the modern U.S. economy. Although consumers may welcome lower prices for individual items, widespread deflation can be deeply destabilizing as prices drop, the value of assets falls and consumers begin forgoing purchases in anticipation of cheaper prices. Then that further depresses demand and prices. The condition is already evident in Japan, where the collapse of real estate prices has left an economic mess of bad loans, ailing banks, plunging stocks and corporate bankruptcies.

"The market is very much reacting" to deflationary concerns, said Richard E. Cripps, chief market strategist for Legg Mason Wood Walker Inc. "That's one of the major fears out there."

For much of the past decade, slowing inflation has been the driving force behind the U.S. stock market, as the decline in interest rates has made the returns on equities that much more valuable. But if that disinflation continues and crosses the line into deflation, then the economic picture changes as companies find prices for their products falling faster than they can counterattack through increased productivity or lower costs.

"Deflation is terrible for profits," said Edward E. Yardeni, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

There is already evidence that corporate profits are being squeezed by the twin pressures of weak pricing power and rising labor costs. Companies are finding it difficult to raise prices for some items, such as auto parts, because of global competition or sagging demand due to the financial crisis in Asia. Meanwhile, the low U.S. unemployment rate of 4.5 percent has created such a tight labor market that many firms feel pressed to raise wages or benefits to recruit and retain good workers.

The Commerce Department reported last week that corporate profits fell in the second quarter compared with a year earlier for the first time in a decade.

Until very recently, it has been the specter of inflation, seen in wage and benefit pressures on corporations, that had the attention of Federal Reserve Board members and economic policy makers. But with the collapse of the Russian economy sending emerging markets in Latin America and elsewhere into a tailspin, the talk among some economists in the United States has shifted from concern about a domestic economy that is too strong to one that is becoming more vulnerable to gale-force winds from afar.

Although most consumers don't see it on daily basis when they go to the store, prices for many goods are falling. Gasoline is the cheapest it has ever been, after adjusting for inflation. Ford Motor Co. is reducing overall 1999 car prices for the first time in 30 years. Grain prices are slumping.

A second-quarter survey by Prudential Securities Inc. found that 40 percent of 711 companies followed by its stock analysts were getting lower prices for their products than they were a year earlier. That's up from 26.4 percent in June 1997 and the highest percentage since Prudential began the survey two years ago.

Commodities such as oil and wheat have had the sharpest declines in value, in part because of overproduction and slumping demand from Asia.

"More industries now have declining prices than rising prices -- and by a substantial margin," the Prudential report said.

Technology companies have faced declining prices for microchips and other computer parts for years. But that has largely been the result of improved technology and manufacturing efficiency rather than external economic forces. But even there, prices are declining faster this summer than they were a year earlier, according to International Strategy & Investment, a New York economics firm.

Some companies aren't waiting for deflation to arrive. They've already begun changing their businesses to reflect the weak pricing environment.

At AlliedSignal Inc., Lawrence A. Bossidy, the company's chairman and chief executive, asked his top financial people this spring to check their assumptions and adjust accordingly if prices stayed down or began to falter.

"It's sort of a domino theory where it goes from Asia to Latin America to possibly North America," said AlliedSignal Treasurer Rob Friehl, describing the thinking. "We looked at our suppliers and our competitors and our markets."

The conclusion? AlliedSignal needed to make some dramatic change in its business approach, Friehl said. Among them: leasing equipment instead of buying it, shortening contracts with suppliers rather than locking them into long-term arrangements, and cutting off credit to questionable customers.

"The asset is going to be worth less a year from now than it is today," Friehl said, explaining the shift to leasing from outright ownership. "And we've become a little more restrictive in our credit terms."

Similar moves are afoot among the country's largest businesses, said consultant Ram Charan, who works closely with the top management of Fortune 500 companies such as Ford.

"You improve productivity, you take costs out, you go after customers that are not economically efficient to serve, you cut out the middleman," Charan said, describing the strategies he is advising his clients to adopt. "Some companies will get it, and some will suffer."

Some U.S. companies began worrying about deflation last year when Asian countries slid into economic crisis. More recently, the economic chaos in Russia unnerved other developing, or emerging, markets, such as those in Latin America. Many of these countries rely on exporting oil, metals and other commodities for income. The eventual effect of such economic instability abroad is a reduction in foreign demand for U.S. products.

"The basic question is, can one-third to one-half of the world sink into economic collapse without the U.S. being affected?" said Greg Jensen, a research associate at Bridgewater Associates, a financial advisory firm in Wilton, Conn. "I think it is pretty obvious the market has begun to price in that possibility."

Hidden among some of the more recent positive data on the U.S. economy are some disturbing trends. While corporate profit growth among the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has slowed from a 15 percent annual rate 18 months ago to just 3 percent in the period that ended June 30, for the smaller to medium-size companies in the Russell 2000 stock index it has skidded from a high of 17 percent last fall to a negative 2 percent in the most recent quarter. This may explain why Russell stocks have fallen about 38 percent from their highs, while the Dow Jones industrial average is down about 17 percent.

Some economic analysts have called on the Fed to act to preempt a sharp economic slowdown by cutting short-term interest rates, but Fed policymakers have indicated that they are not inclined to do so any time soon. The U.S. economy is growing, although at a slower rate than earlier this year. The federal budget is in surplus, and the financial system is healthy. For that and other reasons, some economists believe this country can remain relatively immune to the pressures from abroad, although they do expect growth to slow further.

Manufacturing is the sector where most of the deflationary pressure is being felt, but it is only about a fifth of the total U.S. economy. Prices generally are rising for services, the dominant sector in the domestic economy and one less subject to foreign competition or overseas demand.

"When you focus on the goods-producing sector of the economy, that is where the deflation is," said David McClain, economic adviser to the Babson United investment firm in Boston.

But some worry whether the deflationary forces now hitting the U.S. stock markets could eventually result in a slump in consumer purchases, as people realize their wealth is being eroded by losses on Wall Street.

"You've probably got a profits recession, even if you don't have an economic recession," said Stephen Poloz, managing editor of the International Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal.

 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Fri Sep 04 1998 08:49 - ID#261155)
you mean that stuff about 1.55 mil. kilo's on my deak is for real!! :- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:11 - ID#369352)
EJ @7:42 Question on the dollar
In my way of thinking, the dollar will drop and by quite a bit for the following reasons: 1 ) as countries cash in their US Treasuries to support their own currencies, they will have to purchase that currency on the open market, causing the counter currency to rise and the dollar to the past, everyone saw the US as financially strong even though they had a large debt load...sort of like now, you have a job, with good prospects of repaying your debt - right?...the banks will continue to provide you with credit - right? let's say you loose your job and your financial future looks grim...the banks are nowhere around to lend you money because they see you as a liability...This is what is now happening to the US, we have more debt than we can comfortably handle and we are looking straight down the barrel of a recession in as I see it, the banks ( countries ) are going to be calling in their loans here real soon...and the only option the US gov't has is to print more money or devalue the currency ( both with the same effect ) .... 2 ) As other foreign currencies devalue, our trade deficit increases....import $s increase and export $s decrease...causing larger gaps than normal see deficits of $300 - $400 Billion a year will not be unusual from here on out...if you get a few of those back to back, it will make the annual federal budget deficit look likes childs play...and both effect the total US debt problem, which continues to rise... 3 ) speaking of debt...sooner or later this debt will get top heavy and will take all of the income from our taxes just to pay the debt...this spells disaster, period! There is only one way out of this type of problem, and that is the same way that Russia did it...devalue and delay payments!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:24 - ID#287312)
Margin call decline underway / Last hour selling tells tale
I see nothing to reverse this situation and if not panic crash very soon.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:25 - ID#411440)
@ Goldteck: re your "recession in Japan....." Thank you for the
interesting read. Superficially, the article is a pretty standard
analysis of deflation. But the essay lacks an analyis of the
causes of our present deflation.

This deflation seems to be the product of an overly strong US
dollar, and an overheated American economy sucking liquidity out
of consumer markets elsewhere in the world, and into paper assets
like stocks and bonds in the USA. As the US economy cools, this
foreign liquidity should go home, the USD decline, and the return
of liquidity abroad reignite the consumer economies abroad.
That should rekindle demand for commodities, and head off the

Of greater concern is the degree of concentration of wealth in
the United States, and other "free enterprise markets" In 1929,
the upper 1% ultra rich in the USA owned 36% of all US wealth.
Since that few people cannot spend 36% of the output of the US
economy, it was converted to paper and land assets, and taken
out of the general consumer economy. The economy seized through
lack of liquidity. The present level of wealth concentration is
1% owns 40% of all US wealth. This should cause a deflation if
the above model is correct, because again we have asset inflation,
but commodity deflation. ( IE if the middle and upper class have
all their money tied up in bonds and stocks, they are not using it
to buy consumer items and support the general economy. )

This is why overly free enterprise is self destructive, or ask not
for less government regulation, social welfare services, and
taxation, lest you actually receive it, becasue in that direction
lies eventual deflation.

If we do go into a deflation, gold will go to 200-250 dollars,
and everything else will be worth 10 cents on the dollar.

Buy gold???? I guess, but only to reduce your losses, not make

The Fed must lower interest rates, and soon!

EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:26 - ID#226287)
Fox-Man, Better consider the GM strike in those mfg. numbers.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:30 - ID#342376)
Maylasia up 16%!
Didn't they institute some type of controls for shorting the currency? Trying to keep out Soros, good for them.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:34 - ID#427357)

...and on volume

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:35 - ID#290281)
Silverbaron:Sept 3/98 18.48
Silverbaron: You asked "What happens if these hedge funds, instead of covering their gold short positions just go belly up and walk away from them?

Do not know if this was answered or not but I asked around and this is answer that I received. "If they walk, the brokerage firms and banks that both back them and clear their trades will also go bust. Banks especially.

Hope this helps. Shadowfax

Gusto Oro
(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:39 - ID#430260)
"If we do go into a deflation, gold will go to 200-250 dollars,
and everything else will be worth 10 cents on the dollar.
Buy gold???? I guess, but only to reduce your losses, not make

If gold loses a quarter of its value while everything else loses 90% of its value than gold actually gains greatly in purchasing power. Where is the loss?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:45 - ID#284255)
Some fokes sure can pick a profitable time to panic, no?: ) : )

If they cant rally it today, we'll see DJIA 5000 THIS year, IMO.

Most likely this MONTH.

But I think we rally.

shoulda traded the chart ytd MOC, and ignored GE and everything else that wasnt on the chart i was trading. Gonna set things up where I CANT watch anything but the chart I'm trading. I never made a dime by watching ANYTHING other than spoos during intra-day trading.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:50 - ID#277302)
The American's debt rating agencies should focus on...
downgrading their own humongous and soon to be recalled debt and get off the backs of the world's poor and downtrodden countries.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:50 - ID#183109)
Hey Vronsky, guess who now owns nearly 20% of Durban, and recently drilled 153 meters at 13.3 grams! Don't miss the train--its leaving the station : )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:51 - ID#411440)
@ Gusto Oro: My statement assumes that you were to buy gold at
its present price of 285 and then we go into a classic deflation.
One would have been better off staying in cash, and with 285 dollars
to buy assets at 10 Cents per, one would be better off.

This is why I hesitate to buy gold anything right now. Without
lease rate figures to verify the recent spike, I hesitate to say
that risk of further deflation is over. I stay in cash.
Lease rates tell me which way to jump. No lease rates, no

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:59 - ID#290281)
Re: IMF bailout for Russia
I hear that they have one more hurdle to go before this is approved and there is a huge blocker being put in to stop the whole thing. R.Rubin is just trying to bail out his banking pals.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 09:59 - ID#433143)
Greenie, Roooobin and some other guy havin a meetin, guess they saw the POG go up or somethin.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:00 - ID#277302)
Gold shorts around the world will cry in their beer...
on Tuesday September 8, 1998.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:00 - ID#334219)
Thanks... Am surprised that you allow for so many alternatives as to where we go from here. But I've watched your calls and you have been real good..Congrats.

Between the continuation of the bull with this being only an almost competed 20-25% correction...and... the start of a real bear that will take us 40-50% lower, do you have a preferred scenario ?

If this is not the real bear from July 20th...then we truly live in a new era...: )


(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:01 - ID#368244)
@ Polarbear

Would you give me your thoughts on Rangy, @1.5 you thought people were crazy for getting out, now @5/8 whats your opinion.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:02 - ID#30116)
Inflation gauge. (hint: it's up slightly...)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:04 - ID#183109)
for you SSRIF fans....
SILVER STANDARD on the move...up 18.5 % so far. Nice to see some action again.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:04 - ID#427357)
GOLDBUGS....Welcome to Your New Paradigm!

The inimitable "farfel" graciously and generously shares his considerable market
insights and knowledge with us. In addition to being a gifted writer, he demonstrates
keen analytical vision in seeing what indeed is motivating market action.

"In Wall Street's recent market turmoil, many goldbugs have allowed themselves to be led by the general direction of the oft highly emotional crowd. Unfortunately, in doing so, they are failing
to recognize the paradigm shift."

"As part of this paradigm shift, GOLD MUST RISE! Yes, it is very discouraging to see gold fall with the general market. So
discouraging that most goldbugs are finally surrendering and dumping
their gold some cases, even their physical. Again, this
is because most goldbugs have failed to recognized the new paradigm shift."

"GOLD and SILVER have been set up for short squeezes of monumental proportion. There is simply little to no eligible gold/silver inventories available against the massive demand that is building up."

Mr. "farfel's" full report at URL below. It's necessary to delete extra "en" letters in word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:05 - ID#222231)
ALL-LIBERTY, Whose Credibility?
Why do you have this insatiable desire to put ANOTHER down. Could it be an egotistical bent on your part that you are always right and no one should challange your opinions? Many miss his prognostications even if you do not. Are'nt you satisfied with having driven him away from this forum?

Please reply to the quote you posted from ANOTHER as to the following: ( Take note of post date. )

March 7, 1998
"Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of
perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for
time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps
1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have LOST

"1 1/2 years or BEFORE YEAR END" - HAS 1 1/2 YEARS OR BEFORE YEAR END FROM MARCH 7, 1998 PASSED? when this time lapse is over and his prediction does not come to fruition, then and only then, will you be able to show us all how righteous you are.

EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:06 - ID#226287)
Polar Bear, Bufford... Are you watching TVX and SSRIF
Boy, wish I would have loaded up on TVX too! In this market it seems like you can always wait and bottomfish target companies. Perhaps not this time. The horserace is on. If not, I won't miss out the second time around.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:06 - ID#342376)
From the Veneroso Camp!!
The rumor about Soros was that he is now anticipating some problems with other hedge funds and has moved into the gold share arena. It is no secret that he is a fan of Newmont and he was reported to be the big buyer yesterday. His name is always thrown around, but this makes a great deal of sense. If so, he certainly can trade that stock. They do not hedge, so if he has turned bullish on gold, that is the buy of the biggies.
Also, his tennacles are everywhere. If we are right about this central bank selling coming to an end, or is ending now, he probably would know about this.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:06 - ID#147201)
mozel, Dave, AZAU, OL ey al
I have enjoyed y'all's discussion re labor in gold extraction. I can give you one man's experience from about 40 year's effort that may add some perspective. In the past I have been able to handle dirt by hand. I don't think all the goodies are gone. My buddy and I were working along the side wall of a 4' wide vein after the old timers were done. In half a day we had processed 4 X 5gal buckets thru an old trommel and ended up with 22 oz. The biggest nugget was the size of a dried apricot, almost an oz.It went down in size to fog hair. Another time ( about 72 ) I was working alone and in one afternoon I picked and shovelled into my olf 2 yard dup truck at least a yard and a half. Took it back to the mill and probably got about 1 oz. I have never tried panning a yard/day. If that much was worth doing, I would run it over some mechanical device from a sluice to a trommel and a sluice. I have panned all day, but never took notice of how much raw material I handled. Hope this helps. This is Western N.C.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:09 - ID#284255)
oleman . . Fri, Sep 4, 9:08AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Bye,Bye, Miss American pie.............

My sentiments exactly........

Break the current wedge to the downside and this suckers history.
My swing chart is pointing to a massive downwave coming.
In the next week I would guess.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:11 - ID#354133)
The hurricane is no more, Earl. 'Twas a beauty of a day after for the clean-up. Sitting through stormy weather at night - interesting combination of feelings and emotions. Puts things into perspective.

From president "Wag the Dick" down to U-no-Hoo...

Figures lie and liars figure. Inflated egos and psychologically disordered personalities are always figuring. Always think they're right. And figuring to prove it... with figures. Go figure... Brow beat those who disagree - with lots of blah-blah-blah retorts... Or call the lawyers... Always have to think they get the last words in. Let them think it... AND let them keep figuring. They will get what's coming.

Oh well..

Go gold... and plat!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:12 - ID#252391)
Xau over 60
I hesitate to look again but I did see XAU over 60 there for a moment. Silver and gold rallies seem to have stalled. Suppose its all over for the holiday. Back and forth around unchanged for the DOW. Plenty of time to figure which way it will go as the days of the weekend pass.

Its going to be one heck of a surprise rally in the DOW should it ooccur here. I think you'll start hearing the spin that commodity inflation is good for stock - anti depressioanry thing, you know.

Go gold

XAU 48 -60 in one week - what does that do to the Elliot Wave count??

My bet is that we'll be backing to fading metal prices Monday and Tuesday unless something comes in from left field..

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:12 - ID#427357)
Russia Needs A New Currency . . . by Dr. Judy Shelton

Dr. Judy Shelton, an economist - author of "Money Meltdown:
Restoring Order to the Global Currency System" ( Free Press,
1994 ) and "The Coming Soviet Crash" - which predicted the
eventual Communist State's demise ( ( Free Press, 1989 ) . Dr.
Shelton frequently has her wisdom published in the Op. Ed.
section of the Wall Street Journal. She is a staunch advocate of a
new stable international monetary order where GOLD PLAYS A ROLE.

In short, Dr. Shelton believes like many in Washington D.C. that GOLD
CAN BRING ORDER TO THE WORLD'S MONETARY CHAOS starting with the turmoil surrounding the Russian Ruble.

"The West's once mighty Cold War enemy is now caught in the agonizing
throes of a meltdown that has become all too familiar on the global financial scene. Currency devaluation, a forced "restructuring" of domestic debt, a moratorium on repaying foreign obligations--it all spells economic disaster. That it should happen to Russia, a nation attempting to convert from a command economy to a free market system, is particularly tragic."

" Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made the observation earlier this year that the 1994 Mexican peso devaluation was the first crisis of the new high-tech global economy. The 1997 meltdown of Southeast Asian currencies initiated the second crisis. Mr. Greenspan predicted with stark candor that there would be a third. Why? Because the fundamental problem of fiat currencies, whose supply is determined by the fallible judgments of central bankers, has not been resolved."

Dr. Shelton's full report at URL below. It's necessary to delete extra "en" letters in word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:20 - ID#35571)
Seems like I've seen this before. If the prices stay stalled for more than a few minutes more, the rally's over and down we go.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:21 - ID#212197)
@mozel (@The Corporation) Interesting Comment
I'm always one of your interested readers.
Empirically, you are probably perfectly right: the government and the big corporations are basically in alliance, and this alliance finds its expression in actual politics as well as in legal terms. You wrote about the legal design of corporations in the past.

However, I think the alliance "government/corporations" doesn't represent the most important level in the hierarchical organization of power. There are layers of power above it.

One important layer above government/corporations are religiously oriented hierarchies of priests. I explicitely do not want here to point to any of them specifically. These specific priests hierarchies are different in different countries. In the broadest sense, ideologically oriented "religions", like Marxism, and the top leading committees of marxist sects, belong to this layer of too.

In addition, above all these top layers of power hierarchies, there are always individuals who are networked together with these layers, and aspire domineering influence. But usually, these individuals are hidden from the eyes of the public, at least in "western democracies".

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:26 - ID#261155)
well that would probably be about 27, 5 gal. buckets chas., to the yard, and if my memory is still that was the number that comes to mind....and how many pans to the bucket I got no idea....and always been interest in them OL' NC mines.... yep.....interesting stuff that..

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:31 - ID#411440)
@ALBERICH @ Gollum: There are no anti-deflationary events
out there right now, the Fed rates are firm at 51/2%, and the USD
is firming. Why would gold continue to strengthen? If one month
lease rates are still down at 0.45%, then the gold bear is still on,
and we just had a dead cat bounce.

Please Bart, could we see some lease rates?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:32 - ID#369352)
Rhody - waiting to buy gold
IMHO, If you feel that you will buy gold when this trend reverses, think about this for a second and then decide...usually the individual investor is the last one to know what is going on and the last one to get on the last train out of town...when trouble starts in the financial markets, they happen so fast that you don't have time to react and get in at comfortable levels...I'm sure that the Indoneasian's, Mexican's, Russian's, etc. did not have the time to get into gold without taking a tremendous hit on the entry price...If you had bought the major gold company stocks 3 or 4 days ago when they were barely breathing, you would have a 50% profit right now...and if this trend continues, it could be 200% - 300% in the short run ( ie: TVX Gold from 1 1/8 to 1 5/8+ ) . And if after this move you felt uncomfortable with the movement in gold, You could have sold the stock today for at least a 50% gain in 3 days...not a bad return in today's markets is it...but most important is the insurance factor in gold...I buy house insurance, car insurance, health insurance, life insurance and I pay several thousands of $s a year for them, always hoping that nothing will happen for me to collect on them...but just in case it does, I have a net to fall into...why is it that we never purchase financial insurance??? So, why don't you buy some gold for financial insurance and put it away for a rainy day...the nice part of this plan is that unlike insurance, you can cash this one in whenever you want...Please be prepared for what is to come....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:32 - ID#25257)
A.M. selloff
As expected stocks are beginning a selloff this morning, including gold mining issues. Good ol' RANGY is leading the pack, already down 1/16.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:32 - ID#229207)
rhody & trader vic
Thanks for your comments. Here's what's bothering me and why I keep going over this same ground again and again.

Some argue that we are entering a price/wage deflation caused by not enough dollars around for the available goods for the dollars to buy. At the same time, debt levels are at an all-time high. In a deflation, the dollars are becoming rare for two reasons: 1 ) a drop of income capital due to wage decreases and higher unemployment and 2 ) a drop in debt capital due to decreased creditworthiness of borrowers. It seems to me that if there are fewer people in a position to spend cash earned or borrowed, government attempts to increase the money supply via a decrease in interest rates will not work. The only option is to devalue the currency to effectively reduce the aggregate indebtedness and thus increase the number of available borrowers.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:32 - ID#427357)

ref: crazytimes ( From the Veneroso Camp!! )
The rumor about Soros was that he is now anticipating some problems with other hedge funds and has moved into the gold share arena"

I would like to add something to crazytimes very timely comment.
In early 1993 there was also the rumor that Goldsmith had sold a
sizable chunk of Newmont Mining to Soros. Then in March the
same year the gold bull began in earnest. By January 1994 many
US Gold Funds were up in the 100% area - while many South
African Gold Stocks
had soared 200% to 300% in JUST 10 MONTHS.

Methinks George Soros is a par excellence player of the cycles
of all types of securities. His lead will bring in the masses and
international institutional money... we are talking mega-bucks
( i.e. many billions ) that will be chasing a very limited supply
of the bullion and Gold Stocks.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:33 - ID#284255)
oleman . . Fri, Sep 4, 9:12AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

PFE notstaying erect.: )

models: As I said last nite, 969 targets things far below. This is CRITICAL.

sw: Unless the noon time rally makes new highs into the 1pm time frame, this is a reversal. If 969 goes, 900 will go TODAY.

wd: break of first 15 min range to the downside after gapping and esceeding p/h, is BAD. Always.

When we gap like that, I trade off the first 15 min range.

just took profits on Tues t/l

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:43 - ID#342376)
Friend of ANOTHER
9/3/98 Friend of ANOTHER


Poland and China are good customers for the BIS. This is real physical gold they are taking out of circulation, not the pay me back when you have a chance lease deals. They really do have the IMF/Dollar countries over the barrel. Under these conditions it's easy for them to drain the Canadian gold reserves. Soon, these goldless countries will be left with nothing but high yield US dollar treasury notes. Later, when new issues of this paper is yielding 15%-20% these Central Banks will wish for the day when they held an assetthat offered no return! Gold!

The world currency crisis is heading for resolution. I think most of the reallocation of reserve assets is complete. Now the war can commence. The Dollar NEEDS a lower gold price to keep it up. London tried to use the Russian gold story as an excuse to send it down. My understanding is that whatever collateral was freed up from the USSR , the BIS picked up for others. It left the brokers selling leases for almost nothing or 1/2% or so. No one was buying them so the rate just fell on no volume. This was a lucky move for them as the perception was that massive sales were taking place. I don't think the BIS wants to be seen as a currency destroyer so they are doing the buying quietly. Investors know now that $280 will come back rather quickly. I thought it would take a month or so!

Michael, I'm looking for a large default in the paper gold market. With the major CB only buying now something is about to give as the most extended shorts can not cover. A default is most likely part of a game plan to get the ball rolling. This spike in gold will no doubt crush the dollar. The next few months will offer the last period of time to roll out of dollar assets at a good price. Of course, all of this is my opinion from and for the most part, Another's.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:43 - ID#348129)
By the looks of the XAU and the TSE Gold index, it's pointing that way.
Canadian Golds are up across the board.
As S. Kaplan pointed out, it will be extremely interesting to see the Comex open interest today for yesterdays trading.
If it increased again with the price rallying, the shorts must be very low on fuel to keep that up. Capitulation will be the end result and we know what that will do to prices.......

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:45 - ID#35571)
Some BIG funds have taken some hits in equities and the derivatives arena. They have to raise cash in an illiquid market to fufill margin calls. One of the few places they can do this is on their large short positions in gold ( made during times when gold was much higher ) which are still profitable.

So their choice is either sell out their leveraged positions and take a loss ( DOW then goes down ) or sell gold short positions and meet the call hoping market will not tank ( gold goes up ) .

In desperate times one does not look to see what the dollar is doing, only some way to save ones own neck.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:46 - ID#284255)
oleman . . Fri, Sep 4, 9:37AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
If this rally fails, its the short of a lifetime. If the early high breaks, its a moonshot. What a day!!!!

btw, this mkt is much more 'sold out' than at the 1990 bottom. Downright scary that it cant hold a rally under these conditions.

Right you are. I've ben able to get back into a little over half the shorts I took profit on after the big drop. Ol Jesse said to nEVER lose your position.

I wont be doing anything else til after lunch. Just a reminder-----since we aint had the 'relief' rally, the BIG sell is still ahead. OPleasant thought.: )

I fook profits cause I just cant believe Bobby R. will let Slick return to a country that is in the middle of a crash, when he knows that would mean THE END. Remember, he's got the checkbook.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:48 - ID#147201)
Your numbers are close enough. We figure 70 #/5gal bucket. The day we took just four - it was close work following an apparent offshoot from the vein. For that day, that's all we needed. Loading the truck was chucking it on with a shovel, the ole Chinese drag line. Come on down sometine and I'll show you.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:48 - ID#411440)
@ EJ: I hope your analyis is correct. If so, we buy gold or
gold securities as a hedge against the resulting rampent inflation
that follows currency devaluation in the US. The question now
becomes, which is better, gold/silver stocks or bullion.
The leverage and general inflation hedge properties of stocks would
suggest pm equities is the way to go, preferably with equities that
can be bought with low relative dollars per oz, like SA golds rather
than the Barricks of the world.

Thank you. That sounds right, after all Buffett bought silver and
so did Soros. Go with the smart money.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:56 - ID#411440)
Thank you Gollum: That's why I would love to see a lease rate
right about now. I think this gold market is still vulnerable, and
so apparently do you. Lease rates would tell us for sure.

I think in late Septemper, the picture will be clearer, and in
any case, if the American equity markets tank next week or the
week after, gold shares will liquidate too, no matter what.
That was the pattern displayed last Monday. ( Gold firming, gold
shares tanked along with everything else )

I shall keep my remaining powder dry. Thank you.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 10:57 - ID#35571)
Fish or cut bait
So now here we are. Hedge funds have raised some capital by folding some short positions in gold. They may be needing more. It depnds on the market. If the market is going to go down they need to cash out and go lick their wounds. If the market is going to go up, they need to use the cash and fulfill their margin calls.

Lets say the market goes up. They will be wanting to re-establish their short postions. Bad for gold.

Lets say the market goes down. They will need mor margin money unless they have cashed out. Could be good for gold.


EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:00 - ID#226287)
GO ahead.....make My day.
Okay, so the small profit-large loss investors are selling a few shares of TVX and SSRIF. I just wish they would hurry up and push the button.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:02 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Wow..I'm still catching up o posts here, but I take it that one way or
another we'll be seeing big swings, one way or another for PM's and
the Stock market. Also, does Steve Kaplan's good hit on yesterday's
PM's apply today? Will we see action again around 10:30CT?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:04 - ID#411440)
@ trader vic: I did all that last January, including buying
coin. You can imagine what my 'gains' are like. I have seen all this
before, and heard all this 8 months ago. I won't be hurt again. I will
wait for lease rates to tell me the real direction. That last
dead cat bounce was over 30%.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:05 - ID#427357)

RESIDENT South African gold stock analyst, the inimitable John Disney, provides another insightful and incisive report.

Earlier this year the Republic of South African ( RSA ) Rand hovered about 5 to 1 versus the US dollar. However, recent weeks witnessed a rapid run on the Rand - plummeting as low as R6.75, but currently trading betweeen R6.15 and R6.45. Paradoxically, the approximate 25% devaluation is a windfall for the RSA golds.

And this is not the first time a Rand devaluation has been a boon to South African Gold Stock prices. During the last 10 years the Rand suffered four notable devaluations. Subsequent RISES in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Gold Index were:
+60% ( 1989 ) , +200% ( 1993 ) , +70% ( 1995/96 ) and up more than 30% after the 25% Rand devaluation this month.


Mr. Disney evaluates three direct beneficiaries to reap the Rand windfall: Durban Deep ( DROOY ) , Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY ) , and the 'dark-horse' Randgold & Exploration ( RANGY ) . His math exudes logic and clarity.

With or without a bull market in gold bullion, the increased profitability of these gold companies will be reflected in significantly higher stock prices. A must read.

Per "custom" it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word 'golden" of the URL, before posting it to the Internet:

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:05 - ID#213265)
@the scene
It won't be very long now before we know which way the stock markets will move. It should be 'meaningful'!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:07 - ID#434108)
'Economic Winter' - approaching....
The market in "golden overcoats" ... is improving.....
and will become 'brisk'....
as autumn unfolds.

deja vu --
from 9/27/97, kitco post:

"When the tent collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first;
but the side-posts ...
and even the stakes."

for another perspective:

The 'Titanic' IS sinking ....
no matter the wishful thinking and the denial
of the blind leading the blind...

Pride goeth before the fall... --
'Just how long did civilization,
believe it could get away with it:
creating a global economy....
based on paper currencies & artificial credit
created by the trillions...... out of thin-air?'

"It is not nice to fool mother-nature"....
especially when it takes the form of --
by the international collective of
political & financial "leaders & experts",
and their corrupted institutions.

A few 'gold-lifeboats' ...
are beginning to be set-out ... upon -
the stormy, trecherous, world-wide seas of:

crashing-currencies, and

but by only by a few, informed, hearty, freedom-loving,
visionary souls.

Meanwhile, a few of them have reported that -
'a sunami - tidal-wave'
is approaching U.S. shores.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:07 - ID#284255)
makes more sense to have the relief rally now. Give Slick a couple weeks to sling snot and whine his way back into the good graces of the 'soccer moms', and get it set up to blame the Repugs for the BIG ONE.

jIf there's enough $$ available to Bobby R. to do it, he'll protect that 969. If it breaks, it means it is simply out of his hands. Never bet against Bobby, til its clear that the horse is out of the barn.

"V"s are common at stock index bottoms and commodity tops. They are always the result of FEAR. 'Investors'fear missing out on the rally, once it starts, while commodity users fear running out of the product.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:09 - ID#263379)
Pete "1000 apologies"
The word "credibility" was used to give Mr. ANOTHER a big trophy WHEN his target is met. Please excuse me, I just loved his gold/oil story and the life he gave to the forum. Us gold bugs that were and are holding on to any and all good news or predictions relating to gold......

Mr. ANOTHER is not god, and certainly cannot pin point dates and prices. His trend analysis is probabily right on the mark! IMVHO

Again, I very much like the guy/gal/sheik/master/insider/mystery guest/storyteller or whatever! His story thriller would make a great book. Better yet, the real happenings will be a BLOCKBUSTER!

Pete, please accept my apology if I offended you or any reader here....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:13 - ID#240248)
EJ - Regarding Deflation
Take a look at this article. It speaks to a plausible scenario for deflation hitting the dollar for reasons in addition to those you cited:


(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:13 - ID#35571)
I believe so, choppy waters and storm warnings.

If the fund mangers who decided to close their short positions were smart ( and many of them are ) , they took on some long postions in the gold equities first. So they now have another place to take some profit if they need it. If the market tanks, the gold stocks will go right on down as fast or faster, even if POG holds.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:17 - ID#255226)
CC - I don't really have a perferred scenario, I've found when I lean toward a preferred out come in the market I tend to bend the indicators to support my opinion. I do know the dominate 4 year cycle is due to bottom near Nov 1. I'll trade the market with that in mind and worry about the correct wave count when we get there.

Todays's market is thin with some markets closing early. If we get a spike down to 900 it will be fast and won't stay down there long . Be nimble.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:20 - ID#35571)
Uh oh...
PM's starting to weaken.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:25 - ID#35571)
Uh oh
DOW turning around.

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:26 - ID#347267)
All: Oleman ( vid ) likes GE as a market belwether. I do not disagree. Looking at the pattern of the top, ( it is a TOP ) it is difficult to classify as a textbook pattern, however it is sort of a half-H&S with the left shoulder ill-defined.
To substantuate Oleman's thoughts, the pattern almost exactly follows The S&P 500. And has been following it DOWN! Now BELOW the 200 day MA! At some point here we will see a meaningful rally which will take this and other primary stocks ( high multiple large cap "leaders" ) back up to the 200 day MA. IMHO that will be the last opportunity to get out of all long positions and either in to cash or go completely short. This may coincide with another down draft for our gold majors and juniors on a temporary basis.

Richard Burke
(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:29 - ID#411318)
Lease Rates
Rhody: what sort of lease rate action do you need for confirmatiuon of a bull. What was the action in lease rates thru the Jan-April rise.? I will be grateful for your response.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:29 - ID#26362)
Kitco's quote of silver at $3.53 is wrong, right?
wondering if somehow a momentous event passed me by

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:30 - ID#390415)
XAU up
3.67% at 60.42

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:33 - ID#26793)
Treasury disavows letter on Brazil currency

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:36 - ID#26793)
HK Monetary Authority calls banks to Saturday meeting.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:40 - ID#26793)
"Technically the dollar looks ugly"

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:50 - ID#342376)
Ted Kempf on CNBC
Talking about gold. SPIN!! SPIN!! SPIN!! He's saying fundamentals haven't changed, that shorts just can't profit at this price, so they went long ( for just a bit ) However, he was asked what the price would be on Jan 1 ,1999. He said somewhere around 325. I don't get it, if he says fundamentals havn't changed, then why $325 on Jan 1, 1999?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:51 - ID#288399)
Some analyst named Kempf ( thought it was "Kemp" at first! ) just said on CNBC the unforgivable: that investors were actually moving into gold for a "safe haven". And silver, too. Will Tyle Matheison, who actually posed the question to Kempf, be fired for even raising the issue?? Our day will on the way now. Go Gold!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:54 - ID#286230)
C$ soaring for 4 days
Did the B of Canada buy more gold---no they just sold some--must be some other explanation.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 11:59 - ID#183109)
ISURE @ RANGY questions.
I hope I never called anyone crazy : )

Ive spent the last month eating and breathing RANGY info. Ive covered every inch of the internet several times. Ive corresponded with the RANGY office on questions I had. Ive crunched all the numbers, and when they seemed so good I thought I was missing something, then Id crunch them again. Ive studied the counties they are in, Ive studied the geology, Ive studied the type of deposits they are drilling. Im so confident that RANGY is one of the most undervalued stocks around, Ive even gone so far as to sell nearly all of my Durban to buy more Randgold. There just isnt any reason in my mind why Durban should be selling for 3 times RANGY. Dont get me wrong, I love DROOY, and plan to by it back someday, but not until the inefficient market wakes up to all the assets that Randgold has. ( yes, RANGY now has nearly 20% of Durban ) By far the most impressive is Randgold Resources, and if you havent thoroughly reviewed their web page, I urge you to do so. Take special note of all their projects, especially Morila and the 200,000 oz heap leach at a cost of $125, and a total capital cost of only 10 or 11 million bucks. Talk about pure profit!! What do you think the price of RANGY will be when they are producing 500,000 ounces a year at $200 an ounce? Morilas cash cost is figured at $118. With a NPV of $101 Million. Syama is ahead of the original time table, and will be down to $210 by December, ramping up to 270,000 ounces, plus this deposit continues to grow, now at 6.7 million. They were already down to $277 by June. Either the share price is going to rocket, or were going to end up with the most incredible P/E in history.

I hope to have all the info Ive gathered put together into another RANGY article for G-O-L-D E-A-G-L-E by early next week. Hope that answers a few questions. Best of luck. PB

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:01 - ID#229207)
I expect a sell-off this afternoon, but I don't know how deep or fast. Seems to be dropping timidly now, not like earlier.

I'm watching the LiveCharts applet on

Gotta go. I'll check back in a coupla hours. Don't burn the place down!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:02 - ID#259260)
@ Donald / Mooney................ Orwell lives!
Guy's, your earlier AM messages to RJ have me worried. Are we all living on the same planet?

Donald, you said using Gold as a baseline was "Clean" because the CPI numbers have been "manipulated"!! My man, what dollar price of ANYthing has been manipulated by the Govt. more than Gold in the time frame you were referencing???? The Govt. fixed the price at $20.00 for decades, than ARBITRARILY re-fixed the price at a whopping increase, putting it at $35.00 ( after taking the citizens Gold away from them ) , and then didn't allow unrestricted owndership of Gold or a free market in Gold in the U.S. until the late 70's!

Any comparison for Gold vs. other "Stores of value" in the econommies of today, lose their meaning unless you start a few years after Gold stabilized, having been allowed to "float" and U.S. citizens having access to it once again.

Also Mooney, where in the world did you get the idea that RJ was making a point that the DOW is "always a better investment than Gold" or some such??

RJ, just wrote some of the clearest, cleanest, most factual posts ever put on the forum, and folks STILL try and find ways to scramble their meaning to something entirely different than what he said. He has quite plainly stated, that Gold is a good investment right now. Never has he been a DOW cheerleader. He did an excellent job however, of bringing factual data into an area of debate that many seem to want to keep in their "fantasy" Orwellian doublethink mode, in reference to modern historic Gold performance.

We can use convoluted reasonings and arguments all day....but the facts don't change. Why is this so hard for those who are seeking the "truth"?


(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:05 - ID#254321)
Thanks for watching Oldman
sharefin: I think it is unwise to buy gold equities today, unless we have a strong general equities rally. If the markets can't go up just before labor day, the probability of a major downturn next week is very high. And the gold equity rally is not strong enough that it will survive the suction of a general equities drop. Gold bullion is not confirming that we have a solid rally -- yet. And AG is poised on the trigger, ready to push gold down if necessary. I think Rhody's comments about watching for the change in gold lease rates are right on. Keep ( most of ) your powder dry.

I'm going to stand on the sidelines today -- option funny money only.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:06 - ID#259260)
@ Bart
Why is there ANOTHER poster using my handle? You told me the "Liberty" handle would no longer be available and would not be showing up on this forum. Just curious as someone else is using it this AM. I'd be happy to go back to LGB if you've had a change of heart.

( Wasn't me who made the ANOTHER comment earlier as "Liberty".... if you don't believe me, look closely at his syntax and grammatical style. He' smuch more literate than I am, and makes no typos!! )


(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:06 - ID#288186)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:09 - ID#240171)
Brazil now under 6000....Ouch
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 12:11PM 5898 -320 -5.15%

Watch out Mexico ...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:12 - ID#183109)
ISURE @ RANGY part 2

Here's the link where some of the real info is. In addition, I forgot to mention that RR owes RANGY $20 Million, and will repay this with more shares in RR. So RANGY will end up with even more of the "gold pie."
Also, they just added another million ounces to the Morila deposit, and are still drilling, likewise for Loulo and Syama and ......

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:13 - ID#411440)
@ Richard Burke et al: To confirm a gold bull, one month leases
must rise rapidly after falling below 1.0% We fell below 1% in early
July and are now down to 0.45% ( up slightly from 0.40% last week )

Here is the pattern of one month lease rates from Jan through May this year:

Jan 1 1.82%

Feb 2 1.75%

Mar 2 3.05%
Mar 3 3.29%
Mar 6 3.54% top of dead cat bounce

Apr 1 1.59%

During early march, demand for one month leased gold rose as
shorts borrowed heavily to knock back down the firming POG.

Rising leases equal more demand for shorting ammunition as POG
rises. So lease rates act as a precursor to POGs rise, and rise
right along with the POG as speculators battle to bring gold back

If the shorting works, and if gold is perceived to be back down close
to its low, the shorts stop borrowing gold to attack it, and lease
rates fall. So at .45%, the POG is close to its low, and there
is little demand to knock it down lower, neither is there a lot of
danger of it rising up, either. At these low lease rates, gold is
"under control"

If gold rises despite the shorting ( marked by rising lease rates )
there comes a time when either the shorts capitulate, and cover
( adding to the spike in POG ) or lease rates surpass
the one month

treasury bill rate, at which point the gold carry is uneconomic, and
the spike is out of control, and probably going ballistic as 8000
tons of short overhang crush the speculators.

The pattern is that when one month lease rates get over 3% and
forward rates ( difference between lease and one month treasury rates ) go
below 2.4% the gold spike is out of control by the CBs.

That's the gold bull. This isn't it.

In early Mar the one month leases reached 3.54% but one month treasuries
were 5.5% If you subtract these last two numbers you get 1.96% and
that means we should have had a bull, but this transgression lasted only
one day, and if memory serves, there was a barrage of rumors about
Belgium CB gold sales etc. that sufficed to kill the bull. I'll
bet there were a lot of nervous CB presidents in the first few days
of last March!

That's the pattern. A sustained period over 3% and forward rates
down to 2.4%. No wonder Alan Greenspan doesn't want to lower! It
kills the gold carry and initiates an inflationary gold bull, and
remember, these guys are still fighting the last war against inflation,
even though deflation is looming and much worse!

Talk about killing the goose that laid the golden egg, and after a
brief feast, we starve!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:13 - ID#372262)
GOLD HAS BOTTOMED!! DOW HAS TOPPED!! Buy gold and sell DOW! It's a no brainer!! But you'd better HURRRRRRRRY!!!!! BEFORE the GOLD WINDOW CLOSES SHUT!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:14 - ID#259260)
Gold has tended to move in the direction of the DOW more often than not over the past year , but it seems to have strongly decoupled since "Black Monday" this week.

It is apparent to me that Gold is "NASB". With the prospects of further DOW declines ahead, further world instability ahead, loss of confidence in U.S. leadership ( with our totally discredited scumbag CIC ) , a cut in interest rates by AG, a strong "lead" being indicated by Gold shares, Y2K ( perceptions ) looming closer, a post collpase Russia that may very well become a danger worldwide, heightened threats from Terrorist groups, and the doubled increase in U.S. demand for personal investment Gold coin over the past year.....just to name a few minor things .....

I believe Gold will have excellent potential for gains over the next 2 to 4 years, outperforming the stock market, which now has substantially more downside risk.

There...I said it. Mis-interpretation of these words isn't it?


Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:16 - ID#430221)
In RANGY latest report via circular dated Aug 7 of this year they
say they will own 13.9% of Drooy. A total of 7,568,841 shares.

Did you get your facts right? OR is the company wrong?

I don't mind touts but facts are more important. If facts are not correct why should anyone believe anything else you might say?

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:17 - ID#284255)
Marking time till BC comes home???
Look at all the indices on a 10 minute time frame.
With the candlesticks on.

They haven't moved a bit.

Whichever way they go it's going to be volatile.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:17 - ID#288252)
Russian Platinum Ballerina Proof Coin
The Platinum Guild says Russia has been issuing a Ballerian Proof Coin.

Does anyone know where I could buy one of these?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:18 - ID#342376)
Dec gold up $2.00
This link is closer to real time than CBS

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:18 - ID#348286)
@The Next Disaster --- LATAM --- Around the corner --- Warning signs are applenty
"The bank said it could not give assurances that the reserves established by management would cover future losses, given that the reserves are set based on assumptions and estimates made in the context of fluctuating market conditions."

Banco Latinoamericano hurt by market turmoil

NEW YORK, Sept 4 ( Reuters ) - Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones S.A. ( BLX - news ) , an international bank based in Panama, said Friday its third-quarter earnings had been reduced by $8 million by volatility in Latin American financial markets.

Banco Latinoamericano, created by the central banks of certain Latin American countries to promote trade, said the impact figure did not reflect credit losses. The bank had assets as of June 30 of $5.48 billion.

The bank said in a statement that it had increased its reserve for credit and market losses.

``We market the risk of certain underlying papers and debt issued by governments,'' said a bank official. ``The problem is that when the Latin American debt falls, it affects those guarantees.''

The official declined to specify which debt had most impacted the bank.

The bank said it could not give assurances that the reserves established by management would cover future losses, given that the reserves are set based on assumptions and estimates made in the context of fluctuating market conditions.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:19 - ID#372262)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:20 - ID#372262)
That's the choice AG now faces! HE WILL INFLATE!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:21 - ID#431200)
Peckford will be paid $950 per day. to investigate Ottawa's management of 1998 salmon fishery.
Last Updated: Friday 4 September 1998Peckford picks a peck of pallid penny stocksThe Vancouver SunDavid Baines, Sun Business Reporter Vancouver Sun Newly-appointed B.C. fisheries inquiry commissioner Brian Peckford once occupied the top rung of Newfoundland politics, but in recent years he has been bottom-fishing in the penny stock market. In contrast to his tenure as Newfoundland premier from 1979-89, Peckford has been toiling in the relatively anonymous world of penny stocks since he moved from St. John's to Qualicum Beach in 1993.
"I like starting from scratch on things. I'm not one of those blue-ribbon people who go in at the top. I like to get my hands dirty," he said in an interview this week. "If I meet some guys and they seem decent and honest, I like to help. Some will work and some fail, but you have fun along the way."
Peckford has been appointed by premier Glen Clark to investigate Ottawa's management of 1998 salmon fishery. His review is expected to take three months. Peckford will be paid $950 per day.
Until now, he has been almost totally immersed in junior mining issues listed on the Alberta Stock Exchange.
Peckford said he has no formal geological training but learned about mining while working as a school teacher in Springdale, Nfld., where there were four copper mines.
He also said that after being elected to the Newfoundland legislature in 1979, he became minister of mines and helped introduced new legislation regarding land tenure and mineral royalties.
Peckford said he has been spending "99 per cent" of his time with Eastern Meridian Mining Corp. ( formerly Ming Financial Corp. ) , a Vancouver-based company listed on the Alberta Stock Exchange.
Peckford became a director and chair of the company in March 1995. By September the company's stock price had more than tripled to $2.25 on the basis of a majority interest in a copper-gold mine in Baie Verte, Nfld.
The mine was profitable during the year ended March 1996 but the company still lost $536,000 due to unrelated writeoffs. The following year, the mine became uneconomic and was closed, resulting in a $2.8-million loss.
By March 1997, the stock price had slumped to 22 cents and Peckford became president and CEO. He is now working on a plan to process the mine tailings. "We are trying to reorganize and reposition to get back in business. It's taken a long time," he said.
Judging by the stock price, investors are not very excited about the company's prospects. In recent days, the stock has been trading intermittently at two to three cents a share.
Despite the company's performance, Peckford says he has been drawing a salary of about $70,000 a year.
Eastern Meridian is just one of a string of unremarkable ASE-listed companies in which Peckford has become involved.
In 1993, he became a director of Knomex Resources ( then called Monk Gold & Resources ) , which was exploring for gold in northern Ontario and, later, Argentina.
The company struggled for several years and was finally suspended from the ASE in July 1997 for failure to maintain minimum listing requirements. Peckford is still a director of the company which, like Eastern Meridian, is trying to mount a comeback.
In 1993 and 1994, Peckford served as a director of Earthwhile Developments, a Calgary-based company that was proposing to build a plant in Mexico City to recycle dry-cleaning solvents.
That company also ran into financial problems and was delisted from the ASE in January 1997 for failure to meet listing requirements.
From October 1994 to May 1995, Peckford served as a director of Akademia Enterprises, a Calgary-based company that founded a private school in Banff. "They wanted me to review their corporate plan and look at some promotional and marketing activity, and so I was involved in that," he said.
Coopers & Lybrand had earlier prepared financial projections which, based on management's assumptions, forecast a profit of $1.1 million in 1995, rising to $2.3 million by 1998.
The school was a chronic money-loser and was closed in November 1996. A year later, the company was suspended from the ASE for failure to file financial statements and has since been delisted.
Last summer, Peckford joined the board of two new junior exploration companies listed on the Alberta exchange: Navigator Exploration and Muskox Minerals. Navigator traded as high as $1.35 in June, but is now trading at 65 cents. Muskox peaked at 90 cents in July and has since slumped to 55 cents.
There is no suggestion that Peckford was involved in any improper dealings in any of these companies.
Peckford is also a director of a private Alberta company, Aquasol International, which claims to own the formula to several cleaning compounds.
In April, Aquasol agreed to sell all its shares to Napier International Technologies, a Surrey-based company listed on the TSE, for 5.9 million shares. Napier's stock price soared to $4.88, giving those shares a market value of $29 million.
In May, Dell Chemicals & Marketing, a private Alberta company, filed a lawsuit in Edmonton claiming it had previously acquired all rights to the cleaning compounds from the principals of Aquasol and, therefore, they could not legally sell them to Napier.
The defendants, including Peckford, have denied any wrongdoing. Napier, meanwhile, has put the proposed acquisition on hold.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:25 - ID#348286)
I agree that the US will eventually have to re-inflate itself and the rest of the world. Mega-dollars will have to be printed and rates lowered.
I don't know how fast they will act though. My guess is they will act later into the cycle, when everyone in well into the pain........
Gold may be anticipating this....... Now

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:25 - ID#372262)
Kudlow on CNBC made the point--

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:27 - ID#20767)
Toward a more perfect world.

Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 01:30
RJ ( ..... More Replies.... Goodnight ..... ) ID#411259:

Boardreader @ "If gold is a simple commodity, there is much too much of it, and it is wildly overpriced. However, if gold is monetary, it must be considered rare, and incredibly undervalued!"

I dont understand. There is more gold around today than there was at any time in history. Mining becomes more efficient, production increases, very little is consumed, most ends up in stockpiles, gold is becoming less rare every day. There is plenty of gold to go around to every soul on earth. Maybe the all only get an ounce each ( somebody else can do the math, numbers arent my thing ) . Now value gold what you like. Make it equal to some food or some labor ( exceeding the labor it took to extract the gold ) . You could value gold in dollars. You could say that each one ounce coin is worth 1 US dollar. You could say they are worth $1000 US dollars. One number is as arbitrary as the next. If it were valued at $1, I suspect they would purchase about $300 US dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Where the ounce valued at $1000, I suspect it would buy about $300 dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Gold is not money, see above.


Yes, RJ, there is more gold around today ( 133,000 tonnes? ) than ever before. In fact, increasing amounts become available daily. However, consider the 'physical plant' of our planet earth. Has it not increased in substance and value, I believe immensely, throughout the history of mankind? Certainly, even considering the many problems along the way, this cannot be denied.

I understand that you believe gold is not money. This is clear. Gold, to you, is a mere commodity which is subject to the whims of the market. There is much too much of it. Even so, because today it is oversold, it is a buy.

My contention, as implied in the original statements, is that the one thing needed for mankind to survive, and indeed thrive, is a monetary system wherein the currency is based upon a benchmark representation of 'physical plant' wealth. I believe that the most efficient nature of gold is as that representation of wealth.

Bob in DC

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:27 - ID#284255)
When the Bank Runs Begin. . . .
Capers Jones Meets Vilfredo Pareto. It's Bad News.
Domino effect???
The Unzipped Fly Strategy. It Works Every Time.

Clinton coming clean in green old Ireland????

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:28 - ID#372262)
KUDLOW on CNBC made the point
that AG promised PRICE STABILITY meaning neither price inflation NOR PRICE DEFLATION!!! STABILITY!!!! Since the pendulum has now swung over to price deflation ( except for wages ) , AG will now allow some DOLLAR INFLATION to maintain stability!!! Don't forget--he leaves his post in April of 1999 and wants to go out as the man who saved the world from economic depression and calamity!!!!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:28 - ID#35571)
Fish or cut bait
They're going to take it right down to the wire. The market is taught as a drawn bow string. Everyone is waiting, looking for a clue, any clue.

By closing, they're going to have to decide, one way or the other.

It's ominous.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:29 - ID#427357)

Gentlemen, this is institutional buying. The CHART never lies.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:31 - ID#261155)
@Chas I would certainly love to,
and if you want to get a hold me to give me your stats., send em to me at this email... I always wondered how much interest gold got up down there during the 70's and about the saphires and stuff.... had some damn good ground down there to my recollections..

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:33 - ID#210220)
Would like to get in touch with you regarding dirt. I have tried my luck down in Montgomery county, but only found dust.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:33 - ID#261155)
@Chas I would certainly love to,
and if you want to get a hold me to give me your stats., send em to me at this email... don't know why I couldn't read this after post.... I always wondered how much interest gold got up down there during the 70's and about the saphires and stuff.... had some damn good ground down there to my recollections..

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:34 - ID#213265)
@the scene
sharefin -- Re: When the bank runs begin. That's why mattresses were invented; To have a place to stash your currency. Also why shovels were invented and why God created dogs; to dig holes to bury/hide your gold.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:37 - ID#372262)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:39 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
All: in case this tidbit hasn't been posted by anyone yet " Baring International
Fund Managers yesterday announced the suspension of redemptions of
its Malaysia-Singapore equity fund as a ``precautionary measure to
protect unit holders''. Other major fund managers with substantial
investments in Malaysian equities are expected to follow suit,
according to analysts." I believe that US-based mutual funds also have the legal right to suspend redemptions in certain circumstances. Take care!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:40 - ID#342376)
DOW in a tight trading range...
Up till now, down 54. Seemed like everyone was waiting for a direction. They might be getting it now.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:42 - ID#404410)
This must be a bull, even Ashanti Gold is up a hefty 3/16 of a point.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:43 - ID#430221)
The Golden Profit
Inflate or die. How true this is. In the past the Fed had to add
reserves to the banking industry and hope the banks would loan out
the money. Of course this proved to be a faulty design because who
wants to borow money when the country is going into a recession or

So then the Fed got smart and said, hey, if we just go out and
buy the stocks directly we can add money to the system directly. Why
have to go thru the banks who have to make loans which few will want.
Now at least some will benefit, there will be fewer margin calls
and we can keep runaway deflation from happening.

My take on this is that it will change not the outcome but the
timing of the various moves in the markets. In the last depression
there was a lag between when stocks went down and gold stocks went up.
Now I don't think there will be this lag and that is what appears
to be happening. Gold and gold stocks will go up as the market goes
down. People will shift their mutual funds from growth to resource.
The fed will supply some of the liquidity for this to happen. Indeed,
they need this to happen because the US owns a lot of gold which they
need to see going up in price to defend the dollar.

IF commodity inflation does not happen soon Greenspam will be
presiding over the biggest world bust of all time. WWIII will not be
far behind. Indeed, it may have already started.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:44 - ID#284255)
Cong. Morella Says Disaster, If... Then Calms Us Down
75% of Firms Have Yet to Audit Their Embedded Systems
If Telecommunications Goes Down, the Military Goes, Too

This one from the DOD is amazing.
Look what he's making plans for.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:46 - ID#183109)
Gold Dancer @ Rangy info.
Lighten up man! The 7.6 million shares checks with what I have. I obtained the figure of 39.5 million shares off of Durbans web page. I come up with 19%. Im not worried about rounding 19% up to 20%. If Durban continues to issue new shares, then obviously the 19% will decrease. This could be the case. The main point to all this is the value of the holdings in RANGY's portfolio. From now on I'll use # of shares rather than %. Thanks for keeping me on my toes. Do you have any other useful facts for your source? Thanks.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:47 - ID#162241)
Canadian 1 oz Coin Sales
My local Gold Coin Dealer ( Victoria BC Canada ) told me yesterday that Cdn Gold Coins were selling like hotcakes. None available at one dealer ( 6 week backlog on orders ) and short supply at another dealer. Buyers in large volumes have been US visitors, of which this city has many. They are obviously cashing in US buck for what has to be an all time bargin for a Cdn beauty ( about $315 U.S. ) . Sales to this buyer community up greatly over last year.

Too bad our Government can't see the same value in them as does the ordinary person on the street.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:50 - ID#430221)
Which is correct on RANGY: 13.9% or 20% of DROOY? That is a large

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:53 - ID#342376)
Bank index just hit new lows today...^BKX&d=t

(Fri Sep 04 1998 12:55 - ID#147201)
Sniper re dust
My email is Anytime

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:00 - ID#280339)
The GOLD BULL begins !!!
The gold bull is starting to roll. It will move fast get on board now. The mountain of shorts from the carry trade will have to cover. The producers will have to cover.

Be aggressive this is the chance of a lifetime!!!

Got gold!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:03 - ID#284255)
This Document Could Save Your Life. Read It.

Gary North's view on "Tom's Take"

Public Contingency Plans Are Fake -- Only for Show

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:03 - ID#410198)
ALERT...Just got word from my supplier(one of the biggest in the US)DO NOT TAKE ORDERS FOR LOW GRADE
( MS 61/62/63 Saints/Libertys ) NONE AVAILABLE.....just passing this along

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:04 - ID#402260)
Black Gold-Texas Tea
OPEC members produced 27.06 million barrels of crude in August,that's

85% compliance with their production cut pledge versus 55% in July.

The contract has next resistance at 15.00. Hope the world can keep

chugging along otherwise if we slowdown, all bets are off and deflation

patterns strengthen.Oil needs to reflate producer pockets, especially


(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:04 - ID#390415)
XAU up 4.76 that's 8.16 %

You have to go back a long way to find several days like we have had here.

Some of us are only down 50-60% now! That's some pretty impressive investing, folks!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:04 - ID#259260)
@Shortseller.............your 12:17
Re your query on finding the Proof Platinum Ballerina, you might try "Gateway West Coin Ltd.", toll free U.S.A. is 1-888-565-2646, they specialize in World Platinum and Gold including Russian.


Gianni Dioro
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:04 - ID#384350)
Klinton admits to the office of the presidency as being a tool
Klinton said today in Dublin, "By the time you become president, someone else makes all the decisions. You just sign your name."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:07 - ID#402260)
Black Gold-Texas Tea
OPEC members produced 27.06 million barrels of crude in August,that's

85% compliance with their production cut pledge versus 55% in July.

The contract has next resistance at 15.00. Hope the world can keep

chugging along otherwise if we slowdown, all bets are off and deflation

patterns strengthen.Oil needs to reflate producer pockets, especially


(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:08 - ID#259260)
@ Robnoel......... Liberty "Millenium"
Bought a Liberty "Millenium" 1900 $20 piece ( M/S 61, raw ) a few weeks ago, for $489.00, in my opinion these common date coins will soar in value as we approach the quasi Millenium, what do you think?

I've also been buying / hoarding 1900 Morgans like mad for 2 years now.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:08 - ID#340262)
warning! to all those short gold - better start to cover
before it is to late - cjk -

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:09 - ID#242325)
Market breaking down but gold stocks soaring; XAU up 8%. Energy service stocks also soaring; OSX up 5% This is the kind of action I like. The two most beaten up sectors surging as everything else tanks.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:09 - ID#280339)
Xau up 4.84
Gold stocks are moving. Gold will close strong today because of long weekend. Coins are moving off the self. This is the real thing. The GOLD BULL has started!! It won't slow down to let fence sitters on. Options are still cheap. That will change very quickly.

Got Gold!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:10 - ID#183109)
Gold Dancer@ RANGY--7.6 MILLION SHARES......this we can agree on...yes?
Yes, big difference. Well if we work it backwards assuming we agree that RANGY owns about 7.6 million shares of Duban, then I get the followiing.

7.6 / 13.9%= 54.6 million shares..this seems too high to me. I follow Rangy much closer than Durban, but last I heard Durban was around 40 million shares. Maybe they are including all the options etc in their figure of 13.9%. At any rate, Ill be sure to mention number of shares rather than percentages in the future, thus eliminating the drain on Barts Bandwidth. : )

Got Gold. GOT S.A. GOLD. GOT A GLOCK or two...

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:10 - ID#430221)
POLARBEAR I'll lighten up
but please understand that there is so much misinformation out
there in the markets and I have been lied to so many times by
investor relations people that I have become REAL SENSITIVE about

I bought RANGY at average cost of $1 because I agreed with you
that it was very cheap. I don't blame you for the .50 cent price of a
week ago. No one knows how low is low. I don't have any more info
than you but believe that RANGY is going to be a big winner. I think
the price is so low from what I call benign neglect from management.
They are keeping everyone guessing as to what is going to happen
and a lot of investors don't like uncertainty. This allows the informed
insiders to accumulate all they want at their leisure. This is
what is happening in Canada too.

I'm behind your analysis of Rangy but I think DROOY has issued another
12 to 14 million shares some months ago. Now over 54 million fully
diluted. 54 times 13.9 % = 7.5 million.

That's one thing I don't like : constant dillution.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:11 - ID#213265)
@the scene
robnoel -- Does that mean that you are also fresh out of them?

Dave in CO
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:11 - ID#229141)
@Charles Keeling - your 23:04 last night
sharefin posted a quote from oldman this A.M. to the effect that Rubin would not likely allow Klinten to return to a down market. Looks like oldman has incorporated Rubin/Klinten as a variable in his trading.

We'll see what the S&P does in the next 3 hours or so from down right now. If it ends down before the weekend, Klinten's legacy may be a brown spot on the porcelain receptacle of history.

From my perspective as a lurker, I'd love to hear more from you.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:14 - ID#348129)
@WOW: Yen 133.7 CDN$ .6560 AUS$ .5875
Currencies rockin and rolling against US$.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:15 - ID#261155)
@ I guess this offer is good
so does anyone know anyone, or anyone want to pick up this 13 MT. a week over the next 50 weeks of Au ... :- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:15 - ID#288186)
Well kitcoites, we'll need to hear from gogold or HEPCAT on this, but I do
believe we have our two consecutive 2dollar up days in GOLD.
Dec. Gold closed @ 290.40, up 2.10 ********GO GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:16 - ID#427357)

REF: POLARBEAR ( Gold Dancer@ RANGY--7.6 MILLION SHARES......this we can
agree on...yes? )

May I offer the suggestion. Call, FAX or email both RANGY & DROOY to ask them that specific question. Certainly, their Investors Relationship
Dept will be more than happy to answer questions from SUBSTANTIAL shareholders.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:16 - ID#242325)
Ronert Armstrong getting apoplexy over strong yen. Claims it will lead to global disaaster. Soundas like his clients are taking a beating on their yen shorts. With gold up sharply, I expect him to start hollering about market manipulation soon.

By Martin A. Armstrong

Princeton Economic Institute
 Copyright September 3rd, 1998

It is shocking to see
the policies of the
government refuse
to change even after
the massive defeat
of the LDP in the
last elections. Still
the government in
Japan is insisting
that the yen must
move higher for
exactly what
purpose remains a
mystery. A stronger
yen will only
accelerate the
deflation within the
Japanese economy
and insure that
there is no possible
way out of this
economic downturn
other than another
major and massive
crash. The Senior
Japanese Finance
Ministry official
Haruhiko Kuroda
said "the present
situation is that the
appreciation and
yen's depreciation
are excessive and
must be corrected.''
Never do we hear
how the value of
the yen has
anything to do with
the economy. The
weakness in the yen
has simply been
caused by the
excessive low rates
of interest in Japan
that have forced
investors to seek a
return elsewhere
just to survive. The
real issue of the yen
remains that its
value has been seen
as the most
scoreboard for the
failure of the LDP.
The dangerous
issue here has been
the obsession of the
LDP administration
with the value of
the yen itself.
Earlier in the year,
intervention against
the dollar was
coordinated with
announcements of
various stimulus
packages. The LDP
intervention was
used not for
economic reasons
but to try to give
the impression that
the market was
pleased with their
latest proposals.
Consequently, the
policies of the LDP
have been an utter
failure and cost the
taxpayers of Japan
more than 2 trillion
yen  money that
would have been far
better off as tax
cuts or added to the
stimulus packages.

The weakness of
the Japanese
administration and
the excessive losses
of their reserves
have in fact reduced
the government to
the pitiful state of
affairs. The more
recent intervention
has been led once
again by Vice
Finance Minister
Eisuke Sakakibara,
who has been
dubbed as "Mr.
Yen" for his
one-track policy of
a strong yen at all
costs. Sakakibaras
verbal intervention
of late has been
shocking in so far
as its total
with regard to the
world economy at
this delicate point
in time. Sakakibara
said "it was risky to
have large foreign
exchange positions
in current
conditions and that
the yen's weakness
had not yet fully
corrected." While
the dollar has
declined sharply
due to hedge funds
that have lost
billions in Russia
and other markets
taking profits or
liquidating all
positions globally,
the underlying trend
for the dollar/yen
has not changed. If
investors truly were
influenced by
Sakakibara, we
would certainly
move into a massive
Great Depression.
Our computer
models warn that if
the dollar were to
decline back to 124,
the Nikkei would
break below the
10,000 level and
get significantly
worse. An
overvalued yen
would have the
same net affect as
what is taking place
in Hong Kong and
the Nikkei might
drop even below the
9700 level as
foreign investors
flee completely.

Mr. Sakakibara is
now operating at a
very dangerous
level. He and his
fellow officials fail
to understand that
the capital flows are
determined by
conditions. If the
currency is moving
in a direction that
the politicians do
not approve, then it
is the political
policies that are
wrong  not the
entire world.
Unless the
dollar/yen rises to
at least 200, there
is no hope of the
current Japanese
depression ending
anytime soon.
Continued verbal
intervention will
now raise the risk
of creating a far
worse economic
situation in Japan
than we have
previously been
comfortable stating

While it is true that
the US would not
appreciate a strong
dollar either, there
is little choice in
this matter. The
dollar will be
pushed higher in
order to create asset
deflation within the
US and slow its
economy. This will
eventually cause the
Fed to lower
interest rates and
inflate its money
supply despite its
reluctance to give
into international
pressures. The net
capital flight from
Japan will continue
due to the simple
fact that unless this
trend takes place,
then most pension
funds will also go
bankrupt within a
few years. A strong
yen means that
Japan will expand
its economic crisis
from banks to
pension funds and
that could be
devastating for the
entire world

Japan cannot keep
its interest rates at
historically low
levels forever in
hopes of creating a
soft landing. Time
is one thing Japan
simply does not
have right now.
Japanese interest
rates will be forced
to rise as capital
flees the domestic
Japanese economy
and/or bank failure
start to become
more widespread.
These trends will
settle the issue of
"soft" versus
"hard" landing
scenarios. A strong
yen will do nothing
for Japan and we
should not try to
promote perpetual
deflation in Japan
simply due to fears
of a China
devaluation. Japan
and China do not
even compete
within the same
markets for the
same products. A
devaluation in
China is inevitable
and it will have
little or nothing to
do with the value of
the yen but
everything do to
with the Japanese
depression. Unless
Japan's economy
turns around, Asia
as a whole can look
forward to a
deapening economic
crisis long-term.
With the current
policies led by Mr.
Sakakibara, there is
no hope whatsoever
that Japan will see
an end to its
economic crisis in
the near future. In
fact, these policies
are now
endangering not
merely the Asian
markets, but the
entire world
economy since
Japan is the second
largest among all
nations. Indeed, we
may be witnessing
one of the worst
mistakes in modern
economic history.
What the world
needs now is
inflation in Japan -
not more deflation.
Unless Japan
begins to inflate, its
economy will
continue to contract
thus prolonging the
pain for Asia as
well. In the end, a
rising value of the
yen will not restore
the banking system.
A strong yen will
not attract foreign
capital. An above
all, a strong yen
will perpetuate
domestic deflation
while doing nothing
to stimulate
consumer spending.
A strong yen merely
makes the
politicians feel
good and that is a
danger we simply
cannot afford. If
Japan does not
understand that its
policies are exactly
the opposite of its
goals, we may see a
fate similar to that
of Hong Kong
where the Nikkei
could simply

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(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:18 - ID#288186)
OOPS. Sorry folks. I posted wrong. Dec Gold closed @ 290.10, up only 1.80
It still looks promising, though! I guess we'll have to see how the
stock market finishes, then wait till Tuesday....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:24 - ID#410198)
Eldorado...Yep.....I have 300 plus on back order....they sent me 25 yesterday....

EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:25 - ID#173262)
Polarbear, Quite a dog...but will it hunt?

Your story on RANGY is enough to make Bob Bishop, Jim Blanchard, and Doug Casey green with envy. Having danced to a tune like this before I prefer to do a little reading between the lines. You didn't mention any key financials. As I look at the 6/98 balance sheet the current price weakness is more understandable. Cash $2.3 Mil. Recievables ( from whom? ) $9.8 Mil. Current liabilities $14.2 Million. Am I missing something or do they have negative $2.1 mil. working capital?
They list 27.7 mil. of inventory...what is it?...Gold or a pile of rock?

There are some good points you bring up based on Your research. However, one critical factor I look for in this tough PM market is enough
current assets to wait out the storm. Perhaps a little more analysis is in order?

One thing is for sure; if the PM equities take of due to a major change in sentiment RANGY will shine. Very reluctant to put money on the table dependent on that short term prognosis.

A company to keep an eye on for sure!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:26 - ID#254321)
Nice Gold rally -- but just the beginning. General equities very weak.
All: I do regret not buying more at the bottom, but have decided not to risk it. Remember just a few days ago how quickly the gold equities fell? -- faster than the general equities! I don't think the DOW and gold equities have decoupled just yet -- they are both paper.

I would also feel happier regarding a gold rally if gold bullion followed suit.

So -- I look at all of this activity as a sign that gold is waking up. But -- it is too soon to think this rally will last if next week is a repeat of the carnage of the last two weeks.

By the way, I have yet to meet anyone at work that thinks that WJC is doing well. It seems that that Aug 17 speech did him alot of damage that not even he can fix. I like Gianni Dioro's post regarding WJC in Dublin saying that nothing he does is due to his own thinking -- all he does is sign whatever it is. Now -- what is that group that directs his activities do when it is obvious to all that WJC is useless politically?

I would not want to be WJC right now -- and if I was, I'd be watching my back. Whatever that group is that got him in power may be looking around for a new figurehead.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:27 - ID#284255)
If the dow - SP500 lose it here, it's all over.

A very critical point in time.
The last gasp for the ravaged bull.

Will they let it go???

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:29 - ID#251166)
@ sharefin, re. "Tom's Take"
Hi, hope you're well, making money and having fun.

Would you mind re-posting ( or directing me to your previous post[s] ) the urls for "Tom's Take." Meant to catch it, but life was happening . . . you know.

Thanks many ounces. dj

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:33 - ID#410198)
TO ALL...Just to cover my butt one or two things could be happening here with Numis gold 1)They
( suppliers ) are telling the truth or 2 ) anticipating higher prices in the near future putting out this story so as to get higher Bids.....I must say if I was holding large amounts of certified gold I would be tempted with #2

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:34 - ID#284255)
A Game Theory Solution for Banks to Prevent Public Panic and Bank Runs over Y2K Fears

Parts 1,2 & 3

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:36 - ID#390415)
@Sharefin re: Tom's Take
This is a moving piece of literature about possible Y2K disaster scenarios and the best preparations and responses ( regardless of the accuracy of the author's y2k expectations ) . I very much enjoyed reading this work. The link placed here for the convenience of others:

Now gotta go get some dried food... several thousand pounds maybe.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:36 - ID#368244)
@ Martin Armstong

A desperate man is he--- in cheezo-eze, hehehehe, gold at $190 an ounce, better find a new profession Martin.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:38 - ID#251166)
@ FOX-MAN, re. two $2 days
Was Gogold's $2 days based on the spot or futures price? Don't remember, or was it specified at all?

Thanks! dj

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:39 - ID#430221)
Armstong is full of it.
What a load of crap that a stong yen is bad for Japan. What he is
really afraid of is gold rising and Japan selling Treasuries to buy it.

Gold and honest money people have been hurt badly because of what
has happened over the past few years.

Now watch the babies cry when it is their turn to suffer.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:43 - ID#197289)
Good post on Peckford.

Brings to mind a comment from a B.C. fisherman who

said "We could sit down with the American fishermen over a case

of beer and have this whole thing resolved in an afternoon.

When the politicians get involved they screw it up for


Gold rise is great but I think next week the path will be

a little clearer.Markets are always a little strange before a long weekend.

Go Gold.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:43 - ID#372262)
1998 will go down in history as the year of MEGA-CALAMITY for the world economy, the nation state, and holders of the paper pyramid now about to implode with the force of an extraterrestrial meteorite! DEEP IMPACT, ARMAGEDDON, TITANIC--how prophetic and poetic!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:46 - ID#284255)
Read "Tom's Take" then:
The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?

Followed by Cory Hamasaki's

And then the latest at:

And it's enough to make you really believe in gold.

Judging by the talk of GOLD on the many Y2k email-lists and forums I inhabit gold's going to go to the moon.

If only 0.01% of the public are aware of Y2k yet.
Imagine the lift when 10% of the public come to realize what's coming.

When Joe Public really gets scared about his FRN's, gold will no longer be cheap.

Same will apply to food when the masses catch on.

It doesn't matter if Y2k turns out a flop.
The fear will send it there.

I'm still not convinced that the bottom's in as yet.
Like to see a decisive break of $300+++

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:48 - ID#252150)
Japanese financial institution Yen repatriation.
I have'nt noticed any mention of the above. The big fin institutions need to repatriate Yen semi-annually for their fin reports. Naturally in order to do this they sell $U.S.

I was lucky enough to add substantially to my AU stocks near the bottom & expect/hope for another 10-20 % before the end of Sept. when the institutions will again sell Yen & buy $U.S. After that the $U.S. will again strengthen ( unless the fed eases ) & all bets will be off unless we have exceptionally good seasonal strength.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:49 - ID#342376)
I would assume GoGold meant spot since he followed up with $325 gold by 11/11/1998. Does it really matter though? It looks like we've got either.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:50 - ID#430221)
DROOY @ $12 times 7.5 million shares = $90 million in US.
That's a lot of money for little old RANGY.

My prediction is DROOY $15 = or - 10% by Jan. '99.

Let the good times roll.

Go Gold.

Kill the shorts.

Then burn them.

Then scatter them to the wind.

A decent burial.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:55 - ID#372262)
when Citicorp is 50% off its July highs and the BKX imploding?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:57 - ID#252150)
Peckford@The little peckerhead.
What an abomonintion, paying that fuc*ing parasite $950 per day when he's already getting an overly generous pension from Nfld. And yet they expect A single mother & child to subsist on that aount for a whole month.

Clark & his NDP brigands have no brains, hearts or souls.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:59 - ID#288399)
Weekend sell-off/PPT
Where is the PPT when Rubin really needs them? Gold index up, Brazil et al. crashing, potential Latam devaluations over weekend, Hitachi on the verge of bankruptcy, Japan about to dump the dollar, the little guy getting r eady to throw in the towel ( better late than never ) , and, Clinton in transit. Confluence. Convergence. PPT where are you?

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 13:59 - ID#430221)
DROOY and my girl friend
I showed the chart of DROOY last night to my girlfriend who
already owns a bunch and she says "Tomorrow buy me 5000 more."
So I did at 2 7/32. This woman has balls. She also go rid of most
of the rest of her mutual funds a few days ago on the snap-
back ralley.

I think I am going to have to marry this woman!!!!

What do you guys think? Does she pass muster?

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:03 - ID#252150)
An abomonintion is even worse than
an abomination.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:05 - ID#213265)
@the scene
969 on the S&P is the majic number.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:06 - ID#242325)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:08 - ID#240171)
Always worry about Al, Rubin and the PPT...
@Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 13:59
Shlomo ( Weekend sell-off/PPT ) ID#288399:
Where is the PPT when Rubin really needs them?

Shlomo, we have played this game many times before. Rubin, Al and the PPT are formitable adversaries. I will worry about them impacting the close of the XAU and the DOW right up to the last second. Today is a very important day and I don't think they are going to just walk away.

Let us see what it looks like after the market is shut tight. If it is down as it is at the moment ( 50+ pts ) , the holiday weekend will increase the number of concerned and nervous investors... It will be a very interesting next few hours.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:10 - ID#227238)
The spoos battle continues.
They have bounced it back from 969 twice this morning. Like a magnet, it is drawn in that direction again. For the bulls, this last hour and a half is going to seem like an eternity.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:10 - ID#404410)
Arch Crawford
I think that I heard CNBC say that Arch Crawford would be on their set today. What is his current position on gold? He might influence the viewers on CNBC.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:11 - ID#251166)
@ crazytimes, re. $2 day today
I wonder. Is today a short trading day or something? For Comex? For stock market?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:12 - ID#338418)
BIS share price DOWN
I'm a little concerned that BIS is down given their gold holdings.
It represents the safest money fund investment in the world and yet
it too is falling. Derivatives ??? Anyone with an opinion?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:13 - ID#252150)
In the strange , weird & tragic category
I phoned my daughter on Wed. evening @ around 6:45 N.S. time. We talked until around 7:15 & about 15 mins later the doomed Swissair airplane screamed over her house near Peggy's Cove.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:13 - ID#197289)
Gold Dancer - girlfriend
I gold goes to $6000.00 marry her.
If it doesn't, marry her anyway.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:14 - ID#342376)
Rumour about something bullish for Asian currencies....

A later post by the same gentleman says some announcement this weekend, maybe even later tonight.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:15 - ID#266105)
deja doodoo

Coming time to bail out the too-big-to-fails in Latin America. Again. What does it matter if the socializing of private losses is accomplished through IMF funding or otherwise. Same money.

Latin American exposures exceed big bank equity as currencies crater, recession nears and interest rates soar.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:15 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Both XAU and HUI up over 9%.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:17 - ID#25257)
"We Have A Lift-Off"
Let's go ahead and face it: We GOLD BUGS didn't get the buying dip that most anticipated today. Except good ol' RANGY ( which is still down ) , everything is moving up briskly. Does anybody expect another buying slot next Tuesday, or is everything in a vertical mode next week?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:17 - ID#35571)
Fish or cut bait
Still no sign. The end of the day grows near. Metals held their gains. What's it going to be?

Actually it makes not too much difference. Just whether to have a September rally before going to the lows or to just go straight there.

It could make a LOT of difference to various fund managers sitting there watching their monitors with sweat on their brow.

Checking the news, checking the tapes, checking the charts, watching the clock.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:18 - ID#342376)
@ jonesy
It's not a short trading day that I know of, but volume is light everywhere. My thought is that if you average out the last days, you get over $2, whether it be futures or spot. Hey GoGold where are you?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:19 - ID#35571)
Maybe they don't have their gold holdings. Or might not get them back.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:20 - ID#17077)
@BILL2j...I think you have obtained maximum clarity.... your evaluation of the equities and gold markets. Your analysis is great.

More specifically, gold ( that had been predicting deflation in the past ) is now predicting pandemic global currency turmoil which will include the US dollar.

When the general equities markets take "the Big Hit," do NOT be surprised if gold stocks are all over the map that day, with slingshot moves in every direction. There will be gold stock investors selling as they dump their stocks to meet margin calls or save their butts in other investments. At the same time, there should be equivalent or better numbers of investors rushing into gold stocks, believing that there is no difference between investing in gold stock versus physical gold ( keep in mind that ONLY goldbugs are keenly aware of the notable difference between gold paper and physical gold. If you doubt this fact, then simply take a poll amongst non-goldbugs to see if they comprehend the distinction. I guarantee you that most non-goldbugs have no clue ) . Gold itself may be all over the map that particular day as investors rush in and out of the metal, with certain hedge funds and CB's attempting to hold it down. HOWEVER, eventually, one should expect gold to rocket as both "renegade" CB's and populist buying pressure completely outweigh the efforts to control the POG.

When the rocket occurs, then finally a consensus will develop amongst gold stock investors and the stocks themselves should move in a unilateral upward direction.

Basically, be prepared to witness notable gold stock weakness at certain points of the "Crash" day....your heart will be racing as you will feel impelled to dump them at certain points in time. But be assured that gold stocks' survivability will outweigh that of many other general equities, notably internet stocks that are valued with no basis of reality. Gold companies' costs are at their lowest point ever and once the metal itself flies past the 400 level, it should become clear to all that these companies will not merely survive the crash...they will prosper thereafter. In the ensuing chaos, it will be necessary to reinvent the global currency system, tying all currencies to a real standard rather than a relativistic standard...and re-designing the global currency system toward creating greater regional egalitarianism.
Again, the best analogy I can draw is of a micro nature. After the L.A. riots that threw the city into chaos, civic leaders were forced to sit down and come up with compromises that would enable the minority communities to enhance their share of the community pie. The dominant Westside white elite ( = AMERICA & ITS FIRST WORLD ALLIES ) recognized the imperative of this wealth redistribution measure for to ignore it would guarantee repeated outbursts of minority community chaos ( = THE SECOND & THIRD WORLD NATIONS ) .

Final Note on stocks: just as the short-term potential values of gold companies are ingnored by the market today, analogously, on the bull side of the coin, remember that there are a number of stocks trading at lofty valuations that are completely removed from their natural, much lower equilibrium points solely on the basis of recent, urgent broker recommendations, designed to sustain their lofty levels in order to allow the "Great Insiders' Exodus." Moreover, some of these companies, as bellwethers of various key market indices, are targeted for funds inflows in order to preclude the entire index from breaking down. I mentioned INTEL yesterday, the bellwether of the SOX index, yet I can name a litany of other similar companies. When these particular bull supports do break down, however, they should fall much harder than any other company within its respective index.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:20 - ID#427357)

REF: "Gold Dancer ( RANGY )
DROOY @ $12 times 7.5 million shares = $90 million in US.
That's a lot of money for little old RANGY.

My prediction is DROOY $15 = or - 10% by Jan. '99.

From your lips to HIS ears.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:25 - ID#293211)
Run on Russian Banks causing Total Panic

Russian Banks CLOSE
to Citizens Seeking Withdrawal
by William Cooper
 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved
CAJI News Service - Exclusive - Russian Citizens began a
run on banks today to withdraw their Rubles and buy
goods before the currency loses any more of its value.
Russian Banks closed their doors with no notification of
when they will reopen. The Ruble was fixed by the Russian
government at 13.4608 yesterday but immediately sank on
the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange ( MICEX ) to a
bid/offer rate of 16.000/22.000 the dollar.
The political crisis escalated when Yeltsin proposed
reviving an pact which would strip him of some of his
sweeping powers. The communists who hold the majority of
seats in the Duma have refused the proposal. Yeltsin has
threatened to disband the Duma.
Communist Party head Gennady Zyuganov warned Boris
Yeltsin that if the Duma is disbanded, ''This is not a direct
route to confrontation, but rather the bloodshed of civil
war." That is a very serious threat that cannot go ignored.
A majority of the Russian People blame Yeltsin for their
woes. The Army is on the brink of rebellion having not been
paid in months. There is a loud clamor for the government
to return to communism. People have been seen throwing
Rubles into the street.
Army units have been placed on alert in and around
Moscow. The Minister of the Interior has issued orders to
military commanders to be ready to "act under
extraordinary circumstances" should civil unrest erupt in
President Clinton left Moscow Thursday without
announcing a solution to the Russian problem. Our sources
in Washington D.C. tell us that he is likely to ask Congress
and the IMF for a large sum of money to bolster the failing
Ruble. The International Monetary Fund has declared that
it is broke and has asked for a bailout for itself.
Unfortunately, any sum likely to be offered would only be a
drop in a very large bucked full of holes.
For more information see: Directory of Press Releases
William Cooper 100% correct - Watch for the
deteriorating situation in Russia to cause another
maximum plunge of over -500 points on the New York
Stock Exchange.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:28 - ID#430221)
Gold share prices and ANOTHER
In ANOTHERS latest post he states again that gold shares will
burn along with paper. I disagree. There is no way that the
money coming out of stocks can get into gold coins. If there
is already a 6 to 8 week wait list people are not going to wait 1
year when a few billion decides to buy coins. No way. So that money
coming out of stocks will go to the gold funds and stocks.

If what you want to buy is not available do you take a promise of
delivery in the future and pay for it now. Bull. That money will go
to stock. Especially when things are moving so fast.

The other reason the government will allow golds to rise is that
they must allow funds etc. to hedge their losses. If the people lose
all their stock money and can't make up some of their losses in the
gold stocks the gov't won't exist. Period. The government is not
here to wipe people out, they just want their share, deserved or

Go Golds. Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:28 - ID#229207)
Market has picked a direction
and it is DOWN.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:30 - ID#176200)
I assume you were using the balls thing as a figure of speech :- )
I got DROOY also and am thinking about some RANGY also. Guys here at
work are also buying into the gold market. Gotta love it!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:30 - ID#230216)
Cherokee & Kuston
Cherosaki! I've been to Chandler at Queens Rd. ( PLayed golfie w/ Kuston ) . I remember the rocks and cacti.....and I also remember a few THOUSAND hot and sweating-bullets Cattle........... ( PHEW! ) stunk to high heaven. During some of those hot sultry nights one could smell awful cow droppings as the ( very ) slight breeze would crawl across the landscape................ ( yuck! ) . The peopleos who built their houses AFTER the cows have been their FOREVER wanted the Rancher to move it all. Can't imagine the audacity....but that is ANOTHER story. Anyway, you should call the Kuston for a little golfie-golfie!! Watch out for that sandbagger though ;- ) He just got RE-shafted......... ( I know, sounds painful ) ................. ( ouch! ) it when he says, "

I haven't played since the Packers won the super bowl"..........he will getcha! ....ohmy!

Hey, I gottan idear! When you are 'cost averaging' those gold should also 'cost average' some gold puts too.........just a few ya know ;- ) This is from your buddy EB ya know.........the guy who loves ya..........future ski buddy...........and dragon slayer.......................and definite SmokeMobiler......................... ( puff-puff ) ................ ( aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh ), what was my point? Oh hell, I forgot.................oh yeah, puts baby.....just a small amount. Call it "insuring your 'insurance'" ;- )

I can see clearly now the *haze* is here

I can see ALL obstacles in my beer

gone are the dark circles 'round my eyes

It's gonna be a funky-dunky end-o-year...... ( sung in my best rasta voice ) ........uh huh.

Have a gold weekend all! AGULP to ya! ...and puff



(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:32 - ID#293211)
All Paper stocks will be destroyed including GOLD
When New York City is destroyed all paper will be paper.Chaostan is coming to America first.

Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:36 - ID#32080)
What's different about this rally.....
I want to begin by stating I am a bull on gold long term - so don't get mad when I just pose the question - what is different about this rally than the last 14 or so false moves up? Why is this recent bottom THE bottom? I see resistance at $286 to $290 on the charts. There should be plenty more downside pressure on commodities in general as deflation continues to spread throughout the global economy. So who's got money to buy gold?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:38 - ID#316256)
Well guys, the market for gold equities will be down next week. How do I know? I just bought 1000 shrs. of NEM. Boy did I agonize over this stock purchase.

Good luck everybody!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:41 - ID#348295)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:41 - ID#372262)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:42 - ID#25257)
Could someone please help me understand why everybody is so hep up about these two issues when they're the only two that are still down on the day? I bought DROOY this AM at 2 5/16 and it's still there. Most limit orders were missed simply because GOLD stocks moved early. Did snag BMG at 3 7/8 before it left the post.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:44 - ID#372262)
AT 2:00 PM TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mars opposed to Uranus!!!! Lookin' for 4700-6000 by the end of the month!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:44 - ID#342376)
@ Lou
I'm no expert, but one thing is that the US Dollar has broken its long term uptrend. If that is true, this does make things different. Here's a chart.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:45 - ID#342376)
@ zeke
RANGY went up 50% in a few days. DROOY went up 25% yesterday alone. It's just a pullback. I'm not worried about either.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:45 - ID#430221)
True, I said DROOY @ 15. But was giving a little leeway for the
sale of so much stock and figured if RANGY could average $12 that
would be pretty good.

They may decide to hold if they think DROOY is going to go $50
which is what Blanchard thinks. Just think: $45 ( fudge factor ) times
7.5 milllion = $337.5 million. Now that sounds better don't you
think? Not as much as Bill Gates has ( he just sold 2.5 BILLION of MSFT )
but not bad. Maybe in 1 to 2 years? $15 is just the first leg up.

This is all just fun and games. We will know in the fullness of time.

Go all golds. Bury the shorts and scatter their ashes to the winds.

The white hats are now in charge. Bet Russia goes to some form of
gold currency over the weekend. Better do something and SOON.

ASIA to follow. Something is up in currency land. I have always
feared that the end of the US dollar would come over night. NO CHANCE
Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:46 - ID#25257)
Marshall--Paper Gold Stocks
Certainly all paper will eventually give way to real money ( GOLD ) , but in the mean time buying GOLD stocks sure does beat playing MUMBLY PEG with the CNBC crowd. Boy! Sue Herrera looks like she has a MEEGRRAINE!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:46 - ID#350179)
I guess the DOW really is the Monica market, it just keeps going down...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:47 - ID#372262)
THIS IS THE MOMENT YOU'VE BEEN WAITIN' FOR!!!!!! Quit countin' all your profits and let us hear a loud "I TOLD YOU SO!" : ) Hehehehehehe!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:48 - ID#269191)
Durban's outstanding shares.
I believe they actually have 42 million outstanding. They had 39
million but then issued 3 million to insiders at a discount several
months ago just as the stock was starting to move. Of course this
knocked the price down and the stock did nothing for weeks.

I assume now once again just as things are starting to warm-up, they
are going to issue alot of new stock. I'm not happy about this because
when they issued the last 3 million, they promised Blanchard they
wouldn't issue more. I don't like doing business with liars.

I'm reconsidering my investment in this stock and will probably get
rid of it.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:49 - ID#288252)
Thanks BUGal
Okay, found out the Russian Ballerina is a 1/4 oz. Palladium Coin issued in 1990/91. Sell for about $90.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:50 - ID#430221)
A figure of speech. Trust me. She is not in drag. I have in the
past inhaled. I speak the truth.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:51 - ID#25257)
Thanks. I've had these two gems so long now, didn't look at my technical. DROOY still looks good. Hope RANGY orbits too!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:51 - ID#230216)
Big Lou and the $25,000 query
I've *axed* this question several times in the past and I've tried to understand this myself.........can't do it..................................uh uh.

But Disney could be right about his 'Egg Theory' too. Eventually....... It just can't stay this way.........maybe :- (

away... ( $ )



the DOW - it will crash on Tuesday..........................UP! It is a buy Opp......check it out.

And the USdollar will resume it's climb. Profits are taken, correction is made.........uh huh.

And gold will sputter and cough....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:52 - ID#269191)
Good question Zeke
The management's a pack of liars. I was a raging bull on the stock-
Drooy- but now I'm thinking of dumping it. I don't think people are
going to make the money they expect because the management is apparently
going to take every opportunity they can to steal the profits by issuing
more stock to their buddies.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:52 - ID#427357)

DOW down on day's low and XAU UP on day's HIGH.

DOW down 140 to 7541 and XAU UP 10% to 64

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:54 - ID#229207)
Lou Paquette
The rich will buy gold for the same reason the Asian rich bought US equities. Flight capital. But instead of fleeing a country, the money of those who have money will flee collapsing capital markets into hard assets. The poor and middle class will, of course, get screwed. Unless, of course, they bought gold and silver.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 14:54 - ID#208393)
Canadian Bargains
Canadian Mining & Exploration

Stock Performance Apr. 6 - Sept. 4 ( inc )

Stock| Apr. 6 | Aug28 | Sept. 4 | %

MNG | 5.90 | 4.45 | 6.50 |+10

PRU |11.70 |10.00 |11.80 |+1

PDG |20.80 |13.75 |16.75 |-19

ABX |32.75 |20.90 |25.10 |-22

ORV | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1.05 |-43

GEO | 2.50 | 1.14 | 1.25 |-50

RNG | 5.45 | 2.00 | 2.75 |-50

SUF |13.60 | 6.05 | 6.05 |-56

GRE |10.30 | 1.94 | 2.75 |-73

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:01 - ID#372262)

Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:04 - ID#32080)
thanks for the response Prophet, crazytimes.....
Golden Prophet I hear ya - which charts on what site do you use to track trading volume? Privateer? or here on Kitco?? Thanks.

crazytimes - no kidding that chart has broken down - what exactly is it - the US dollar compared to all other currencies.

Guys - the Dow is falling like a rock this last hour of trading, did I hear the guy on CNFN say the Brazil market ( or was it currency? ) was down 9.8% today - not normal for a holiday weekend. Looks like this may spillover to next week and Crawford may be right. And get this - meanwhile the heavily gold stock laden TSE and VSE are both up nicely today.

Tahnks guys....diamondlou

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:04 - ID#35571)
cut bait

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:06 - ID#342376)
It's upsetting that DROOY issued more shares. My thought is that DROOY gets alot of press, both on the internet ( here and SI ) as well as on quite a few newsletters. It trades on something like 5 markets around the world and is well known as one of the oldest gold mining companies. It's the "darling" of Jim Blanchard. His article claims it's the best company to buy for the most leverage to the price of gold. I think it may become the YAHOO of the gold mining industry. Share price has more to do than fundamentals as we know from YAHOO. It's what gets press and what people are hearing about. DROOY was in the biggest gainer category on NASDAQ yesterday. The last time gold moved alot 6 months ago, it was also one of the biggest gainers on NASDAQ, more than other golds.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:08 - ID#432157)
Merrill Lynch just turned BULLISH on GOLD,per my broker


(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:11 - ID#427357)

REF: " Gold Dancer ( Vronsky ) "

"True, I said DROOY @ 15. But was giving a little leeway for the
sale of so much stock and figured if RANGY could average $12 that
would be pretty good."

Check our this chart which tells a powerfully strong story. DROOY's price today is just a little LOWER than indicated by the yellow box in the chart. Makes a body want to drool. DROOY's price potential is astronomical!!!!!!

As the gold bull grows in momentum, obviously DROOY will appreciate substantially, but I believe that RANGY could possibly increase more on a percentage basis - not only because RANGY owns a chunk of DROOY stock, but also because of the implicit leverage enjoyed by the numerous RANGY mining projects in various countries - ESPECIALLY its controlling interest in RANDGOLD RESOURCES -- which trades in London ( I think ) .

To see the DROOY long-term price chart, it's necessary to delete the extra letters "en" in the word "golden" before posting the URL to the Internet:

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:11 - ID#208393)
You asked "What's different about this rally?"

Three things:
1. Gold has moved higher 5 days in a row. You've got to look back a long ways to see that happen. NASB
2.The US$ is sinking. People realize that the Americans can't just go on printing paper to bail out the world. IMF dollars are disappearing into a black hole.
3. There is a world CURRENCY and BANKING crisis. Just look at this page and read what these jokers are doing to try to duct tape things in place.
BTW = this are NEWS know "current affairs", not just somebody's conjectures.
EB - do I get the $25000? I'd convert it into gold in a minute.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:13 - ID#269128)
Grinding DOWn into the weekend....
boy this must be draining the emotional reserves of stock bulls....I wonder how long before the next anxious PANIC?

Gold's up a buck or two I notice.
Yankee Dollar still getting flushed out like soggy waste paper?

Mtn Bear (SE)
(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:18 - ID#347267)
Market DOOWWWNNNNN! GE, CCI, MER, JPM have lost BILLIONS in market value in the last few days. Just look at any of the charts. ( Citicorp )
Golds, oils, drillers UP!
Anyone join me in the WMT short this am? Target 45-47.

Tonight on Hardball: "What's Klintons biggest worry now, the Monica trail or the Money trail???"

PPT in there with all they got during the last 30 minutes. One day soon they aintagonna be able to hold it!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:20 - ID#269128)
Who's buying gold now?
The big money chaps who abandoned the stock market at near the top in the last 18 months and sat in $US until it's elevator ride was over...down for US stocks, down for US dollar up for MONETARY's not really a commodity, don't be's good, honest, real, "constitutionally correct" money.....just to be PC about this.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:22 - ID#34191)
EJ and the poor
EJ I'm not sure that the poor will suffer that much. You got nothin', you got nothin' to lose. The currency changes, the size of the welfare check will change with it. Let the government figure it all out......

Got gold, got grub, got guns.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:23 - ID#242325)


(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:30 - ID#342376)
PPT working overtime now before the weekend!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:30 - ID#34191)
OK, I need to know the predictions for Tuesday. I want to get into the BEARX fund on a rally Tuesday, if there is a rally. I'd hate to get in today on a DIVE just to lose value on a rally next week. Help please, any ideas?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:30 - ID#269128)
Hmmm lokks like Russia's not too big to fail...
nor Indonesia for that what US?

IS that right about the IMF declaring that it is broke....I thought that would have sent things beserk?

It's broke alright...but dump it don't fix it...morally bankrupt for that matter as well.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:32 - ID#7568)

Martin Armstrong's diatribe against the rising Yen must be viewed as extremely bearish for the dollar. It signifies that he and by extension others do not believe what is going on, and still have massive Yen short positions.

The recent jawboning by Sakibura has been quite surprising. With the Yen having rallied from 147 at the bottom to 133.75 at the NY close, one would think that the Japanese would be content with having hurt the specs enough so that their currency would not come under renewed attack. This, however, does not appear to be the case.

As recently as three months ago the old policy towards the Yen couild be characterized as one of benign neglect. The spin from the newly placed Japanese government could easily have been interpreted as tacit acceptance of a depreciated Yen. If this policy was still in place, one would think that after having slowed the Yen's decline, the powers that be would be happy to let it settle. Instead, if anything, Sakibura's remarks with respect to the currency have become more strident as it has risen. The magic of it all is that not a single dollar of reserves has been fired into the market.

The action of the market, and of the Japanese, could be signaling a major policy reversal. It may be that the Japanese have decided to lead the effort for an Asian currency to compete with the dollar and the Euro. No doubt it has dawned upon them that if the Euro and the Dollar become the two reserve currencies of the world, it will relegate Japan to a second class position in world economic power, irrespective of the size of their economy. And will additionally cost them real money, because of the advantages that accrue to the issuers of reserve currency.

The force which has kept the Yen declining to date has been the massive capital outflow from Japan far in excess of the inflow generated by their large current account surpluses. This outflow has been recently let loose in full force due to the Big Bang deregulation, which has allowed citizens far easier access to foreign investments. Japanese citizens have fled the 1% rate of return in Yen denominated bonds, and the long declining Nikkei and real estate markets, in search of higher returns in financial markets abroad. With the rest of the world's financial markets now in rapid retreat, the reason d'etre for these external capital flows is disappearing as we speak.

Should the Japanese capital flows reverse, we could see a massive strengthening in the Yen. The rising Yen will also initially increase their trade surplus due to the J-curve effect, where volume declines trail the rising price of Yen based exports.

This bit of commentary, like most market commentary, is as usual a talking of the author's book. It has been a very, very, fine week.

Go Yen, Go Gold, Go Stuff, Yee Haa!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:32 - ID#25257)
Thanks. This liquidation is no doubt affecting the price; however, looking at this raging-snorting GOLD BULL, even stocks like ABX are surging. I'm hoping for a BUYER's PAUSE next week, but in the meantime
this thing is starting to look like "The Hulk", with anything but Pause in mind! When do you think we'll have a buyer's pause? If the stock market tanks next week, will it draft down GOLD SHARES?

Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:32 - ID#32080)
@kitkat, thanks for that
Wow some gold stocks are up 40% this week, and gold prices really haven't broken out yet - shows just how oversold they have become, and how much leverage they hold vs. just holding the metal. Just imagine the upside when a really sustained rally takes place and gold runs up toward $400 US?!

Even still, the trend of that chart of the CRB Index they slapped up on CNFN a few minutes ago is still down, it has not broken out yet and I would like to see it break through 210 - 215 and keep going to be sure the overall long term trend for commodity prices has reversed for sure.

Sounds like more currency crisis throughout Latin America next week. Meanwhile the VSE composite index is UP nearly 2% today. Love it.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:34 - ID#261155)
@don't you just hate it sometimes when
you are right.......Japan is threatening military retaliation if NK test goes forward tomorrow....and I do not know what WJC orders are, but I think we just lost some face over there, if Japanese Congress had to pass an emergency bill authorizing retaliation...SHAME ON YOU wjc....... the Jaoanese Congressional Act as much as says our planes sent over theree just a guesture....and not a threat.....@#$#$%$#%

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:35 - ID#342376)
DOW up over 100 points in a few minutes!!
What manipulation!! Is it going to close positive for the day?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:36 - ID#290281)
Gerry Favors on CNBC
Gerry said that if dow breaks 7400 he will go 100% short.
If it breaks the most important number of 6933 then will go down to 6300 thereabouts.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:37 - ID#427357)

Yahoo's chart with the 50 and 200 day Moving Averages show decisive UPWARD penetration - in addition to the price downtrend being broken.

There are few signs stronger than this.

p.s. it's NOT necessary to delete the extra letters "en" here ( :- ) )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:40 - ID#373284)
Cowgirl, Namaste' do you have a solid core of physical metal, gold, silver and
platinum...while many here discuss making money I believe it is far more important to think in terms of preserving what you and your family have. In addition, I think it is VERY important to be thinking of and preparing for Y2K and what that will certainly entail...

Spud Master
(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:41 - ID#28586)
right on schedule ... gotta love those guys ... so predictable.

hey, shouldn't someone be able to exploit this? ; )


Lou Paquette
(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:42 - ID#32080)
DOW cuts losses from -180 to -74 in minutes prior to close...
Is that Greenspan copying Hong Kong market manipulators to calm investor's fears over the Labour Day weekend? I am not a big follower of conpiracy theories but it looks suspicious to me!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:50 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' Clintler is a hypocritical, lying CS...plain and simple...he has zero
respect anywhere on the globe...the Chinese are still laughing at the this juncture things will crumble so quickly and I am not just talking financially...the world has become a decidely dangerous place since this jack's ass took office...first Americans will losetheir money...and then their sons...count on it...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:51 - ID#25257)
@Lou Paquette
Manipulation? Perhaps, but this up-swing signifies possible life in a thing all GOLD BUGS consider to be dead: the stock-market bull. This thing needs a SILVER Stake driven into its heart. Enter Stage Left: Latin America.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:51 - ID#213265)
@the scene
If the PPT REALLY cared, why is the Dow 1700 points off its high? Their manipuations are to keep people from getting out of their stocks 'just one more day'. ( And then just one more day after that, etc. ) .

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:51 - ID#229207)
Your guess is as good as anyone's in this market. I tend not to worry about the 100 or 200 pts up or down, or even 500 pts up or down, from day to day. If you think the market will go down to, say, 5000 over the next six to nine months and that the BEARX fund managers will be able to manage the fund to take advantage of this with short positions, then it does not make a lot of difference if you buy at 7500 or 7700 or 7300. I own BEARX and so far it has increased about 20% while the market dropped 20%. So far so good.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:52 - ID#244242)
PPT Strikes again...
The Powers That Be can play the averages like a Stradivarius! Never underestimate those behind this-IMHO-rigged market. This rally was foreordained. The stakes are WAY to high for the real power brokers to lose control now. It would take the hand of God to smash their scheme-and He will... in His good time.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 15:58 - ID#229207)
Program trading triggered by the 7500 breach?
The PPT is designed to deal with macro events. So far, this correction is what the Fed wanted. However, if the market drops fast again, and consumer confidence flags, and spending slows, etc... Then you'll see the PPT out to do their thing.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:02 - ID#342376)
@ D. A. concerning Japananese major policy reversal
See my 14:14 post and link.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:07 - ID#25257)
CNBC Talking Heads
Bob Pisani's mother is cooking Sicilian Matsas for him tonight: He managed to report the large commodities rise and with barely an interstital mumble about GOLD. Reminded me of Toad's order list in the movie "American Graffiti" when ordering from the Liquormeister: "Let's see, I need a comb, a baby ruth... and, oh yeah, a bottle of Old Charter." Sue Herrera's migraine has mystically disappeared since the nice upturn in the markets.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:08 - ID#350179)
Brazil stocks crumble: Circuit breakers kick in momentarily after Bovespa index falls 10 percent

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:18 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 4

Gold 919,331 - 124,098 troy ounces
Silver 79,461,545 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 54,871 - 264 short tons
I'll try to post any breakout info shortly...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:19 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 4

Gold 919,331 - 124,098 troy ounces
Silver 79,461,545 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 54,871 - 264 short tons
I'll try to post any breakout info shortly...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:23 - ID#288186)
Comex Gold Warehouse stats...The 124,098 oz drawdown was from
registered stock. No changes in Silver Warehouse stocks...
904,437 0 124,098 -124,098 0 780,339
138,992 0 0 0 0 138,992
1,043,429 0 124,098 -124,098 0 919,331

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:24 - ID#43349)
Could be, but the upsurge at the end was about the same size as the downsurge at the start. Which looks like day traders to me.

Aragorn III
(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:25 - ID#212323)
Frustrated Incorporated......on the issue of paper vs. gold as a store of wealth
RJ, Gollum, Mooney*, tolerant1, TYoung, Isure, Oro, D.A., Donald, robnoel, Eldorado, and all other participants in the discussion last night. I just now scanned through all of the posts and would like to congratulate all of you. What was said by everyone was correct, but was akin to the tale of the four blind men who each try to describe an elephant based upon the limited exposure they each get feeling some body part ( one feels the tail and proclaims the elephant is like a rope, the man at the leg says it is more like a tree, the man at the trunk says it is like a get the idea ) .

On the precise issue of "store of wealth," everyone talked around the issue, gave good examples and numbers, but no one delivered the home run.

Several people actually said the answer, but failed to identify it. Like answering the question "What is 2 plus two?" If they count out loud "One, two, three, four, five" it provides the answer, but fails to put the debate to a meaningful rest. I humbly submit to you this ball I found in the parking lot outside the stadium...

"What is the best store of wealth, paper or gold?"...the answer is GOLD. The key word in the question is *store*. Paper fails miserably, and those who argued for paper were "cheating" in there arguments by folding in various investment or business agreements. I will use a post by RJ that makes this point very obvious:

"Even a savings account that kept pace with inflation has outperformed
Why do you find it so difficult to admit?
Things are what they are
They are none other"

See? Rather than leaving the paper and gold on an even playing field, the paper is allowed to work in some kind of business arrangement that pays interest in RJ's example, while the gold is simply expected to sit there.
To fairly address this issue of "*store* of wealth", they must both be required to "just sit there."

To bring in an element of investment is merely subterfuge. They could BOTH be invested in some kind of business arrangement. They would both be at the mercy of the investing savvy of the individual. Don't confuse the issue. Put paper and gold in a can. Let them sit for years unattended. Take them out of the can. No matter where you might find yourself on earth, gold wins. Gold *stores* wealth better than paper.

As RJ points out:
"Almost every investment has been better than gold in the last 20 years.
Equities up more than a thousand percent."

Imagine a world where the money that is used in these investments ALSO stores its value. Wouldn't that be nice? A DOUBLE bonus. Today, with fiat currency, you MUST put your money to work in some kind of investment ( risk/reward ) just to offset the insidious loss of value over time. Imagine the luxury of having money ( gold ) that *stores* its value whether you choose to sit on it ( no risk ) , or gives you the option of high returns should you choose to invest ( risk ) some of it.

Money is money. Could be gold OR it is paper.
Gold is gold.
Paper is paper.
Gold is better than paper.

Gold money is the best of CAN let it just lay around, or you may choose to put it to work ( risk/invest ) for the potential for profit in addition to its reliable maintainence of value/wealth.

got gold?

As tolerant1 says, It's a non-issue...move on.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:26 - ID#288186)
I'll talk to you all on Monday evening or Tuesday! Have a nice Labor Day
weekend ( U.S. and Canada folks ) ...I'm kind of excited to see how
next week starts out...But it will wait. I'm headn' to Bull Shoals
Lake for some serious skiing!! Bye. Fox-man

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:28 - ID#288115)
Boy Oh Boy! Now let us see if we can get some follow through next week.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:28 - ID#280339)
Xau up 6.4
Gold bull begins! Don't miss it! Be aggressive! The perception that a Papa bear market has begun is sinking in. Paper is burning. The world's reserve currency is being trashed. US Tbond will soon follow the dollar down. Gold and silver are all thats left.


Got Gold!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:29 - ID#36977)
AaragornIII . . . BRABO!!!
[Sounds of loud cheering and applause]

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:29 - ID#261155)
Namaste Tolerante 1
It is a hell of a thing to right sometimes Tolerante 1, and God help me I hope you are are not....I hope.....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:31 - ID#36977)
AragornIII . . . Now if I can only learn to spell names.
My sincerest apology.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:32 - ID#280339)
Xau up 6.4
Gold bull begins! Don't miss it! Be aggressive! The perception that a Papa bear market has begun is sinking in. Paper is burning. The world's reserve currency is being trashed. US Tbond will soon follow the dollar down. Gold and silver are all thats left.


Got Gold!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:34 - ID#263100)
Noticed the increased volume of flag and glb, does anyone have a reason?


(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:40 - ID#410198)
To All....for those who study charts take a look at the Dow and then Brazil....and then if you can
say this was not a US Treasury buy I'll eat my hat

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:40 - ID#348286)
@geoffs (Merrill Lynch just turned BULLISH on GOLD,per my broker)
I've gotta see that. Any confirmation? That could be signaling a sea change in the public's mentality towards Gold.
Most of the lemings I talk to won't pick their nose unless their broker/fund tells them to.
I've always contended that the next major Bull in Gold has to have some of the publics participation. Right now it's got @ 0.00001 percent.

Go Gold............

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:41 - ID#43349)
@Spud Master
Yes, the effect is VERY exploitable. I don;t think it's the PPT though.

The internet is creating massive changes not only in everyday life but in the markets too. One can monitor stock moves from their desk almost in real time and place orders with brokers at very low rates.

This has created the new gun in town.

The day trader.

These guys turn a profit on a sixteenth of a point. They go in for the day and trade millions of dollars worth of stock on a moments notice.

I have noticed for many weeks that if the market could be expected to go down in the morning before the opening because of bad overnight news or just looking at the Globex futures, then it would indeed go down and with a vengence. If it could be espected to go up, it did so equally vengefully.

Day traders.

Now if the market went down in the morning and then stayed fairly flat all day it would have a sharp rise in the late afternoon ( day traders closing short positions ) . If it went up in the morning, you would see a late afetrnoon selloff.

If it had a sharp rise, some would yell "PPT!". If a sharp decline, it might be blamed on sell programs if anyone said anything at all.

Whatever it is, it's VERY predictable.

If the market doesn't stay flat through the day, like when we had the 519 pont selloff, then all bets are off.
One should fairly often be able to make some very predictable trade about one or two oclock in the afternoon before the day traders head for the doors as school lets out.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:43 - ID#36977)
Russia to start printing presses
MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia will print money to wipe out its domestic debts so it can start reforms with a clean slate, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Fyodorov, who drew up the acting government's economic plan, said late Friday.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:47 - ID#229207)
"..booms typically lead to busts..."
Nonsense! Booms go on and on and on. Just ask A. Cohen.

Some booms go fffffft. Some booms go BOOOOOM! This bear looks like the slow fffffffffffffft that many here predicted. Staying in this kind of bear market "for the long haul" is a perscription to lose all of your money.

Airplane Makers Expect Slowdown
The Farnborough International 98 show, the world's top air show, is set to begin Monday in England, but the roar of jets overhead won't be able to drown out the worries of industry executives. Sales are soaring, but booms typically lead to busts and analysts see no way around the next one. ``We're seeing the peak actually hitting in 1999, at about 1,000 airplanes to be delivered,'' said a senior aviation analyst at Avmark International Ltd. ``In the year 2000, we're estimating 750 airplane deliveries and in 2001, it drops into the region of 500.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:49 - ID#373284)
Dave, Namaste' just gotta call em the way I see has already is one
thing to die in a war...terrorism makes the war zone anywhere on the planet...instead of resolving these matters properly our government has chosen ( and believe me they have chosen ) to put us...the We the People at risk at breakfast, lunch, dinner anywhere in the this day America has shown an arrogance and ignorance towards the Middle East...

I can tell you this...the current administration has not got a clue...but they are not much different than the rest in the past...not much if any...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:50 - ID#280339)
Weak recover from Monday points down
Stocks historically rise before a holiday. The feeble rise after Mondays Plunge points to a big move down next week.

Once again I recommend comparing this crash to the 1990 Nikkei crash. The dow crash will be worse than the Japanese crash. The entire world is in turmoil. When you add Willie Klintons problem to the mix it spells disaster.

Got Gold!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:53 - ID#252391)
Gotta be impressed
XAU at 64 - and I thought 60 would be a good close. This up from 48 something. And gold is still under 286. Look out if this thing evr has a $300 gold price to work with.

Hey, Vronsky - what about the financials of RANGY noted earlir - not very impressive. And what about the share issue program for DROOY - what's your take on that.

Noted on CNBC the guy said that the 33% gain in golds was not a big rally.

Actually, I think you'll start hearinga positive spin put on gold as lifting us out of deflation.

Look at that NEM - quality leading us out of the hole.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:54 - ID#373284)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to has
been brought to my attention that the Great State of Nebraska used to be flat as a glass covered lake...but now it is somewhat concave due to the weight of an unknown substance...any ideas...I did not want to mention your name...heh...heh...heh...

got any chance...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:56 - ID#36977)
Gold lease rates flat Wednesday
( Gold ) Lease rates for one-month metal was at 0.44 percent on Wednesday from 0.80 percent a month ago.

"On Friday, a Luxembourg newspaper reported that the Luxembourg Central Bank has sold most of its 12 tonnes of gold reserves. " Hmmmmmmmmm.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:56 - ID#410194)
@Golden Prophet/Cheesehead
We are still waiting..., wait, the markets are now closed!

Oh well, another day maybe.

Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 14:44
AT 2:00 PM TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mars opposed to Uranus!!!! Lookin' for 4700-6000 by the end of the month!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:57 - ID#373284)
SteveIS, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...
Shouldn't that read "Klinton's Willie." ???

(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:58 - ID#17077)
And once again, it is time for a little exercise in logic....


Japan...economy collapsing.
S.E. Asia...economy collapsing.
Russia...economy collapsing.
Germany...economy hurting ( from disastrous Russian bank loans ) .
Russia....economy collapsing.
Germany...economy wounded ( huge German bank losses via Russian Defaults )
Canada....economy hurting ( from deteriorating currency ) .
Australia...economy hurting ( from deteriorating currency ) .

Yes, it is true...there has been flight capital into the USA. However, America's economy is entirely multi-national and integrated into the global economic system.

It is IMPOSSIBLE -- logically IMPOSSIBLE -- for America to be impervious to the pandemic currency crises and stock market debacles rolling swiftly around the world.

Americans can live in the realm of denial...they can espouse the power of national positive thinking over and over again...

...But the exports are disappearing, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
...the tourists are disappearing, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
....for every dollar of capital flight into America, there is probably equivalent or greater capital repatriation to shore up the deteriorating home conditions, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
....etc. etc.

Foreigners are losing their shirts via currency devaluations and foreign stock market debacles...ergo, for every foreign capital flight dollar to America, there is bound to be an equivalent or greater drop in foreign consumption, expenditures, and investment ( either directly or indirectly through the Multiplier Effect ) Finally, there is evidence of accelerating capital repatriation as treasury bond prices seem to be falling.

Let's examine this example: the Japanese fellow who normally visits Hawaii or California at least two times a year. Having had his financial butt kicked, then he will probably cut out his American tourism along with all his usual tourist expenditures. Yes, maybe nervousness might compel him to send some money into American markets...but will his capital outflows to America outweigh the drop in his consumption of American goods and services? Or equal or exceed his nervous neighbor's capital repatriation?

Simple logic leads to only one conclusion: with their wealth rapidly declining, foreigners cannot send as much capital to America as they must repatriate...they cannot consume as much in the way of American goods and services as in the past.

Bottom line...Americans are living in the land of denial, thanks primarily to the manipulations and conspiracy of Wall Street, Big Media, and government players.

The Arrival of Reality can be delayed...and so far, the Americans have put off the reality of extremely global negavtive economic contagion for almost a year. America's stock markets soared, its Dollar raced upward.

At this point in time, with global crises accelerating on almost a daily basis, I think the delay can last no longer than mere most a few weeks. Whether or not there is a Plunge Protection Team, the market is simply too large to control forever.

Certain posters on K-1 would suggest I am anti-American in suggesting that world economic crises must show up here. Actually, I would assure them I am extremely pro-American...rather, it is these same K-1 posters who strike me as selfish and anti-American for, on the one hand, taking various precautions to weather a financial debacle, yet on the other hand, eagerly bamboozling those concerning economic reality as it is truly unfolding.

I am pro-American in urging the average citizen to take the necessary precautions against the global economic earthquake we are experiencing instead of merely nodding obsequiously as goverment, media, and Wall Street assure them that all is well. Otherwise, one day, the average American will wake up to the news of the Great Crash without having taken any precautions to weather the unpleasant interstitial period of economic reorganization that must precede a new, properly functional global economy.

Essentially, one does not cure a broken foot by pretending it does not exist. Eventually, one must deal with it, put on the cast, and limp around for some time.

However, eventually, a healing process arrives and over time, one is able to kick a football again.

I beleive that Gold is the cast that will serve to heal the injury.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 16:58 - ID#229207)
Does not the growing mass of Internet day traders pose a liquidity risk in a panic? Look, Ma. No buffer.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:00 - ID#410194)
Very profitable week! (if well positioned)
Not that bad of a week after all!

It could have been worse:

Date: Sun Aug 30 1998 18:42
Silverbear ( Black Monday ) ID#290408:
Copyright  1998 Silverbear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

This is my "gut" feeling for the coming week.

1. DOW drops 600 points.
2. Massive riots erupt in Russia.
3. Yeltzin will be "gone" by this time next week. Most likely sucessor?
Alexander "Leadhead" Lebed.
4. Russian troops "crack down" on riots. 1000's killed.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:01 - ID#340262)
need a rest

All the spin masters from imf, fed, treasury, banks,
brokerages, etc will be out in force this weekend spinning
glowing and optimistic statements emphasizing all positive
aspects of the current world financial meltdown - maybe AG
will I go out and ceremoniously purchase
some stocks & yen for his up coming retirement.

The russian duma has postponed until Monday there vote on
whether to approve the acting prime minister ( there is a possibility that they will not be meeting again )

The solution is quite simple - quickly make as much
money as you can - and give it to all those who need
it a very low rate of interest.

It is to bad that the house of representatives will
not have time to discuss the imf funding proposals
since they will be all tied up with impeachment

Talk about rome burning while nero fiddles - he had
nothing on us

next the spin masters must turn there attention to
south america there sure isn't many places left after that.

I need a rest thank god for this long labor day
weekend - I must say the volatility was just
to much for me - I need a rest - cjk -

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:02 - ID#348286)
@What the H*** is this Crook being funded for anyways
Camdessus confident of U.S. funding for IMF

WASHINGTON, Sept 4 ( Reuters ) - IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on Friday he was confident the U.S. Congress would approve funding for his organization and repeated that he had no intention of under funding programs.

``I think there's reason for optimism and to feel that pretty soon the U.S. will bring its work on this issue to a close,'' Camdessus told a news conference at the end of a meeting here on Latin America.

Camdessus, who was speaking in Spanish, also said that funding the International Monetary Fund was one of the few steps the United States could take to protect its own economy from the turmoil ravaging world financial markets.

``To give the IMF the resources necessary to carry out its mandate is probably one of the few positive measures that this country can take ... to strengthen its own defenses against the onslaught of the economic crisis from abroad,'' Camdessus said.

``I have no intention whatsoever of cutting financing of any program before us whatsoever alleging that there wouldn't be enough money in our coffers. The money is there ... we will not under fund,'' he added.

``If it were to come to pass that at some point that resources were to become depleted or exhausted, at that point I'm sure that the leadership of the international community would step up to the mark and assume its responsibilities and make sure that the resources were made available.''

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:07 - ID#17077)
Sorry, ERROR in previous post...
My computer's paste function went crazy again. SHOULD READ AS FOLLOWS:

Once again, it is time for a little exercise in logic....


Japan...economy collapsing.
S.E. Asia...economy collapsing.
Russia...economy collapsing.
Germany...economy hurting ( from disastrous Russian bank loans )
Central & South America...economies collapsing.
Canada....economy hurting ( from deteriorating currency ) .
Australia...economy hurting ( from deteriorating currency ) .

Yes, it is true...there has been flight capital into the USA. However, America's economy is entirely multi-national and integrated into the global economic system.

It is IMPOSSIBLE -- logically IMPOSSIBLE -- for America to be impervious to the pandemic currency crises and stock market debacles rolling swiftly around the world.

Americans can live in the realm of denial...they can espouse the power of national positive thinking over and over again...

...But the exports are disappearing, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
...the tourists are disappearing, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
....for every dollar of capital flight into America, there is probably equivalent or greater capital repatriation to shore up the deteriorating home conditions, no matter how much sunny optimism is whipped up.
....etc. etc.

Foreigners are losing their shirts via currency devaluations and foreign stock market debacles...ergo, for every foreign capital flight dollar to America, there is bound to be an equivalent or greater drop in foreign consumption, expenditures, and investment ( either directly or indirectly through the Multiplier Effect ) Finally, there is evidence of accelerating capital repatriation as treasury bond prices seem to be falling.

Let's examine this example: the Japanese fellow who normally visits Hawaii or California at least two times a year. Having had his financial butt kicked, then he will probably cut out his American tourism along with all his usual tourist expenditures. Yes, maybe nervousness might compel him to send some money into American markets...but will his capital outflows to America outweigh the drop in his consumption of American goods and services? Or equal or exceed his nervous neighbor's capital repatriation?

Simple logic leads to only one conclusion: with their wealth rapidly declining, foreigners cannot send as much capital to America as they must repatriate...they cannot consume as much in the way of American goods and services as in the past.
Bottom line...Americans are living in the land of denial, thanks primarily to the manipulations and conspiracy of Wall Street, Big Media, and government players.

The Arrival of Reality can be delayed...and so far, the Americans have put off the reality of extremely global negavtive economic contagion for almost a year. America's stock markets soared, its Dollar raced upward.

At this point in time, with global crises accelerating on almost a daily basis, I think the delay can last no longer than mere most a few weeks. Whether or not there is a Plunge Protection Team, the market is simply too large to control forever.

Certain posters on K-1 would suggest I am anti-American in suggesting that world economic crises must show up here. Actually, I would assure them I am extremely pro-American...rather, it is these same K-1 posters who strike me as selfish and anti-American for, on the one hand, taking various precautions to weather a financial debacle, yet on the other hand, eagerly bamboozling those concerning economic reality as it is truly unfolding.

I am pro-American in urging the average citizen to take the necessary precautions against the global economic earthquake we are experiencing instead of merely nodding obsequiously as goverment, media, and Wall Street assure them that all is well. Otherwise, one day, the average American will wake up to the news of the Great Crash without having taken any precautions to weather the unpleasant interstitial period of economic reorganization that must precede a new, properly functional global economy.

Essentially, one does not cure a broken foot by pretending it does not exist. Eventually, one must deal with it, put on the cast, and limp around for some time.

However, eventually, a healing process arrives and over time, one is able to kick a football again.

I believe that Gold is the cast that will serve to heal the injury.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:07 - ID#348286)
@A Sea Change ?
Dear Abbey Cohen was just spotted on Madison Avenue buying all the Gold jewelry she could stuff into her Limo.......

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:12 - ID#350179)
My kind of scrabble
Next week should be entertaining.
Have a good weekend.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:13 - ID#373284)
MoreGold, Namaste' and a Holiday weekend gulp to ya...
Dear A. C. is a putzette...yes?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:17 - ID#290213)
A little Friday humor
A FIRST GRADE TEACHER collected old, well known proverbs. She gave
each child in her class the first half of a proverb, and had them come
up with the finish.

As you shall make your bed so shall you.............mess it up.
Better be safe than.........................punch a 5th grader.
Strike while the .................................bug is close.
It's always darkest before...............daylight savings time.
You can lead a horse to water
Don't bite the hand that...........................looks dirty.
A miss is as good as a......................................Mr.
You can't teach an old dog new............................math.
If you lie down with the dogs, you'll.....stink in the morning.
The pen is mightier than the..............................pigs.
An idle mind is..........................the best way to relax.
Where there's smoke, there's.........................pollution.
Happy the bride who......................gets all the presents.
A penny saved is......................................not much.
Two's company, three's..........................the musketeers.
Laugh and the whole world laughs with you, cry have to
blow your nose.
Children should be seen and not............spanked or grounded.
When the blind leadeth the blind............get out of the way.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:20 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Aragorn -- Excellent on the 'store of value'. That is exactly what was needed; the definition of 'terms'. That is ALWAYS what is needed first in any 'argument'. Just sometimes, it IS difficult to identify exactly what is needed to be 'defined'. Thanks!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:22 - ID#25257)
High Priest and Ancient Guru Bill Seidman is on CNBC dispensing the "Keys to the Kingdom". Funny how it all seems to make since out of the side of his mouth.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:23 - ID#348286)
Thanks, and you too. Will be interesting after the holiday........

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:25 - ID#411233)
TVX going up like a greased rocket! Won't be long now before I'm relaxing on my yacht, smoking Cuban cigars, and watching my half naked
female friends prancing about.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:27 - ID#25257)
Oil is the Saviour du jour
Meanwhile, Amanda, the latest CNBC cutesy face is touting OIL as the place in commodities to be. Could OIL avert this CRASH DIVE for the politically correct?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:31 - ID#218249)
Gold daily chart: Connect the highs and lows and you will see we are above
the downtrend line. If we cross above the line connecting the lows, which is at about .50 above todays close, then we will have a massive rally on top of the one this week!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:36 - ID#218249)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:37 - ID#286230)
25% banned
Kapex: Tried your chart and got an Error 101--could just be me.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:37 - ID#218249)
Sorry about that guys!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:38 - ID#253153)
A shadow has been cast on Wall St
The long bond recorded a new high's today with the yield closing at 5.27%, the lowest in 30 years. Money is moving into gold as a safe haven and as an hedge against bankruptcies which will follow the anticipated crash in Sep. The CRB close at 202 and I'm expecting the CRB to resume it's descend shortly. Do NOT get sucked into oil and oil related investment. We are in a massive deflationary trend and as unemployment begins to rise after the crash, oil will decline in price to some very low level. In a runaway deflation ONLY GOLD AND SILVER RISE as the dollar declines against gold backed foreign currencies. Although domestically. the dollar purchasing power will increase as all prices including interest rates SINK. Be very carefull, the stock market decline will wipe out tremendous wealth and businesses. Make sure you have got enough money to pay your family living expenses. I'm concerns that people on fixed income ( retirees ) will lose their corp pensions because some of these companies will go bankrupt.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:39 - ID#280339)
@T1 Thanks and a puff to you
P.S. what is Namaste'

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:44 - ID#410198)
A story just broke on Tampabayonline that Mexico has just suspended all consumer loans tried to post
the URL but no joy....funny how these things break after markets close

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:44 - ID#373284)
SteveIS, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff back at ya...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:47 - ID#43349)
I think they do make the markets mor volatile, that's for sure. On the other hand it so far is an understandable and predictable kind of volatility. So predictable that I think the more savy traders are going to realize there is a whole new flock of sheep to be shorn if they haven't already.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:47 - ID#36977)
This long weekend should have a positive tone on Kitco.
I was very impressed that the XAU and gold stocks put in such an impressive showing this week. That is, until I realized that the stocks I ***used to own*** are back up to where I sold them about 5 weeks ago, including NGC, TVX, RANGY, SSC, SSRIF, etc. This could very well be the start of something ***BIG***, but I'm in the camp of watching and waiting. Too many false breakouts in this long bear.

As I posted, lease rates for gold are flat. Appears this is profit-taking by shorts -- NOT forced liquidation. Huge volume in gold stox today, but we've seen this before, too. Mini-rally to $290-292, then at least a re-test of lows in the near future. Although I'm a ANOTHER fan, I'm leaning toward $240-260 gold before this all shakes out. Too easy otherwise. Note the new rumor of Luxemborg CB selling gold. The start of the Euro appears to be a key for when gold will rise.

Kitco is following a consistent pattern: euphoria during the day ( THE GOLD BULL IS HERE ) , followed by other posters after the market closes with quiet reserve, followed in a few days by the market retreating, accompanied by gloom, doom, and conspiracy.

C'mon, ol' yeller! Prove me wrong! Things are NASB -- both LGB and RJ are bullish!


ATTENTION: ALL POSTERS AND LURKERS: Your assignment is to check with your coin suppliers to determine if there really is a shortage of gold coins. Report within 72 hours. End transmission. /////

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:48 - ID#253246)
Realistic ****that Arsch is right just lkike July

Arsch on a national radio talk show in July stated that small stocks
were going to fly come 7/20 *******he is sticken his PLuto in his subscribers Uranus

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:54 - ID#343171)
why not post on the main thread, is this pergatory or probation?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:56 - ID#350179)
"I honor the place in you in which the entire universe dwells. I honor the place in you that is of love, of truth, of light, and of peace. When you are in that place in you and I am in that place in me, we are one"

Or "I bow to the divine in you."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:56 - ID#36977)
Mexican banks suspend consumer loans, mortgages

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:59 - ID#373284)
Here is the gig on Mexico and loans and such...printed the whole thing cause of possible problems wi
Mexican banks suspend consumer loans, mortgages

MEXICO CITY ( AP ) - With interest rates surging and demand plummeting, Mexican bankers said Friday they had temporarily stopped lending money to consumers for purchases of cars and homes.
``Under current market conditions, it's better to wait and see,'' said Araceli Espinosa of Grupo Financiero BBV-Probursa.

Mexico's financial markets have been battered by the turmoil that rattled Asia and now Russia. The national currency, the peso, has been tumbling to new lows almost daily, and the stock market has been shaken too. Interest rates have jumped.

``The granting of consumer loans has been temporarily suspended,'' said Vicente Rodriguez, spokesman of Grupo Financiero Bancomer. ``We also decided to restrict new mortgages in face of the current situation of volatility and high interest rates.''

Most Mexican banks had been making car loans with a fixed interest rate based on the average interbank interest rate, which surged 2.455 percentage points to 39.67 percent on Thursday.

The rate has risen by 17.965 percentage points in the past month as the central bank restricted liquidity in the money market to contain inflationary pressures and currency volatility.

As of June 30, BBV-Probursa's outstanding consumer loans stood at around 640 million pesos, or $63.1 billion, representing only about 2.8 percent of total outstanding loans, Espinosa said.

``No one expected interest rates at these levels, and that's why we're now very careful,'' he said.

Rodriguez said the bank plans to resume consumer lending as soon as rates stabilize.

Other financial institutions, such as Monterrey-based Grupo Financiero Banorte, registered such low demand for consumer loans that new applications had fallen to almost zero.

``We're able to analyze applications, but nobody wants new loans. With these interest rates, there's just no demand,'' said a Banorte spokesman, who declined to be identified.

Copyright 1998 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 17:59 - ID#252391)
AMEX stock GSR
Any owners of GSR out there. Any opinions of the beast.

Question of the week next week: will the gold shares buck the DOW debacle?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:01 - ID#43460)
For the palladium watchers:
I've been following SWC now for a couple of years. They've had enough good progress IMHO for me to have bought the stock last winter and right now I'm holding a few shares. I was pleased to see the announcements for their new forward sales program are much more advantageous for them than were last years' contracts. Not advice, just observations. Standard disclaimer applies. The first two reports are much the same and the third just gives a buy rating. My big reason for posting this is to see if any of the gurus out there would hazard a guess as to how high it will reall go.

On another subject, I'd like to thank the folks who laid out the forewarning this summer re price of silver.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:03 - ID#173274)
@the scene
a questioning concept; Wonder why they NEED to raise rates to contract 'growth' when all they REALLY need to do is just say no to a potential borrower. Answers anyone?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:04 - ID#373284)
MM, Namaste' and a fine Holiday gulp and a puff at ya from the
Island that is a point of interest I first came into contact with the term Namaste' when a friend at the University of Oregon in Eugene, OR arrived home from a first descent of a river in Nepal... A Mr. Bruce Mason...where ever he be, a gulp and a puff...Namaste'

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:09 - ID#269191)
crazytimes re:Drooy
Agree it is most distressing when management lies to its shareholders.
Shows at a minimum a lack of integrity. It will be interesting to see
what Blanchard thinks about the management misleading him.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:09 - ID#25257)
Thanks for your caring comments. There is a point where we must bail out of paper gold. What's your call?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:15 - ID#43349)
I think most booms really do lead to busts. Because of the Ponzi scheme nature of them. Upon very rare occasion you might see one go pfffft, but not the really big ones.

With the small first stage of this ones demise the market suddenly has two trillion dollars of less equity than it thought it had. There may have been banks and brokerage already destroyed, walking dead, but the news from the accoutants just hasn't reached us yet.

Believe me, the ripples will spread.

Because of the fractional reserve banking system it is a physical impossibility for there to be as much wealth out there as people think is there.

People take money out of their pocket to buy stock. They think they still have that much net worth, but all they have is some equity paper. If the price goes up they think they have more. They can even use it as collateral to borrow more.

Meanwhile the original money goes to the guy they bought it from. He might put it in the bank ( where someone else will borrow it ) or he in turn might buy some stock helping to drive the price up some more. Now the guy that HE bought it from has the money....

Add up what everyone things they've got and it's far more than what is really circulating.

As long as the boom continues everything is fine and apparent "wealth" grows.

Some people after making a gain "hedge" their position. Some get involved with derivatives in other ways.

Producing even more apparent wealth along with apparent security.

What happens if a significant number of people all want to make a withdrawal?

That's when all the apparent wealth disappears.

It's a chain reaction. Collateral is gone so margin calls get generated.
More withdrawals. More chain reaction.

Funny things happen. Some postions are short postions or hedge positions. When they get covered the price of the affected item goes UP!!

So when the bust finally runs it's course a few lucky people who were in the right musical chair at the time have all the original money and the others are all busted. Wondering where it all went.

That's how guys like Rockeller and J. P Morgan and such got their fortunes just before what was the great depression for everyone else.

Hell, the Rothscilds used to create booms and busts just for the money.

Sometimes a small decline will be made to go pffft. To keep the chain reaction from getting started. But there is always a point of no return where you are going to go over the falls no mattter what you do.

Aragorn III
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:18 - ID#212323)
tolerant1, Tyro, and Eldorado...
Thanks for the kind words in response to my post an hour or so ago. Nice to know it was on target and appreciated. They don't type themselves, you know...

tolerant1...YOU have a very good weekend, my friend.

With that, I'm OFF! raise a glass in honor of all those who recognize gold for what it is, and possess a wee bit o' the stuff.
You truly hold the wealth of the ages.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:19 - ID#346209)
Old traders rule: NEVER buy the first bounce. So I will and did pass
on this XAU countertrend rally. But I am bullish after a bottom is completed. The 3/92 bottom took a month.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:20 - ID#254321)
Suspension of loans in Mexico
tolerant1, all: I am amazed Mexico is doing as well as it is on the outside -- don't recall if this happened in 1994. If South America ( Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, and ? ) implode, it is very likely that the US markets will be pulled down some more. 'Flight to safety' money might flood to the US if it hasn't dried up already -- probably to US treasuries rather than equities.

I wonder -- think there will be another request to the IMF for bailout funds?

I will feel alot more confortable about investing in gold equities after the dust settles -- doesn't look that way right now.

Amazing -- SEAsia last year, Japan and China this year with complete Russian financial collapse, and now South America. Now, there is alot of American investment in South America. I wonder -- just how stable is Germany and Europe? Are they next?

Sure looks awful familiar to the 1925-1929 scenario, ending with the United States, whose markets fell after the worst was over in the rest of the world. Hard times everywhere until WWII began. 1937, or 1939, I think. The cycle is repeating -- not exactly the same, but similar. Except this time we have a boatload of debt, so it will not be simple deflation in the US. May be more like Indonesia when the bubble finally bursts. Could be y2k, or later when the last country falls -- us.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:20 - ID#288295)
To buy or not to buy - that is the question
Tech Analysis on Dec gold is a mixed bag of signals - this could be the early beginnings of a new trend, or just another dead cat bounce.'m not making any quick moves in this current financial crisis climate.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:21 - ID#288295)
Trying again on Dec Gold T/A URL

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:26 - ID#396249)
Further to the Mexico deal this is all due to the so called bail-out...another Clinton lie caught on
National TV and Rubin for that matter...when they announced"Mexico had repayed its loan to the US and we made a profit" is now coming to the surface that Mexico did not repay the proberly from Goldman was given to Mexico so that it could repay the first loan if you can follow that...and give Clinton and Rubin good PR,how the rest of the world read this could be why they are now paying the price right now

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:27 - ID#39857)
boris seems to have everything under control
So booms lead to busts, sounds like some kind of mothernature
rebirthing, yeh Im into that. ommmmmmmmmmm
supernaut, dont eat to much will to power, in fact where have
you been when we needed you?
seem to have the masters of war touring the globe at the moment

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:29 - ID#26362)
A little help please,
Kitco has silver posted at $3.52, maybe I have been asleep, but I do not think it is right. Can someone straighten out this good ol' boy

Cage Rattler
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:29 - ID#33182)
Dear Abby ... on BBC World now

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:29 - ID#350179)
Just for the record
Jumped back in the fray yesterday AM.
This is the third time I've bought PM Stocks this year...
Sold once for a gain in spring.
Sold once for a loss just last month.
A whopping 5% in the black for those two efforts.

My exit triggers active for next week: XAU 56.04 and 73.74
I really hope it's the upper one this time.

Tolly - My wife just returned from Eugene monday!
Namast back atcha, we shall raise a glass from the city of the golden glow to you and yours.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:31 - ID#288295)
Tyro, JTF, rhody, messy79

Apparently you and I and a few others ( perhaps ) are the only ones not jumping into this gold and gold mining stock rally with irrational exhuberance.

Are we smart, dumb, cautious, or contrarian-contrarians? My nerves would be better off if I had no idea of an upcoming stock market panic, or if I didn't know that in previous panics gold stocks got smashed along with everyone else.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:31 - ID#33182)
Abby Cohen - DJIA will be reach +- 9300 by year end

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:32 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Nobody is going to try to answer my question from my previous post?

Aragorn -- ThankYOU for clarifying the issue. I think that no one should hereafter have an issue. If they do, we'll point them to you. I'll drink one in your name.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:33 - ID#17077)
@COOLJING...contrary to the usual slanders of certain posters...
...Bart is NOT allowing me to post on K-1. Period. He 404'd me for proper cause as I knowingly and purposely violated every conceivable KITCO netiquette restriction. When I spoke to him by phone, we had a pleasant chat. He is a nice, well-spoken fellow. I apologized for upsetting the decorum of his forum...he underscored that, on that basis, I would be restricted to K-2 ad infinitum. Since I am a grown-up boy, I accepted the penalty with no complaint. I admire what Bart has done with his website and take my hat off to him. Most notably, it is HIS website and he can impose whatever restrictions he chooses. I would do the same.

Now, I suppose I could change my handle and pretend to be someone else. But I appeared on this forum as FARFEL and I will leave as FARFEL. Although I have assumed different personalities over the past year for the purpose of spicing up my various posts, I did so for metaphorical effect...not because am a multiple schizoid!

I leave the schizoid dysfunction to those precious posters who truly suffer the affliction.



(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:34 - ID#147201)
Cage Rattler your 18:31
Which year end???

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:34 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Silverbaron -- If one can jump in, one also must be prepared to jump right back out! Know your LIMITations!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:36 - ID#17077)
"watching your half-naked female friends prancing about????"

Why only HALF-naked?

Better find yourself less prudish girlfriends.



Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:36 - ID#26362)
seems like a simple question
Does anyone know the current spot price for silver

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:40 - ID#343171)
I printed your 'new paradigm' off golden-eagle today, will read this evening, I always liked reading your posts on k1, would like to see you back, you, Bart and God willing!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:40 - ID#25257)
"The Bounce"--What a Title for a Comeback!
The coefficient of restitution varies considerably between bounces--right Dr. JTF? The Gold Stock coefficient, me thinks, nudges the high end. This bounce appears to be Resonant in nature: We might not see a Pause for Buyers. Hopefully, a pause will allow some of us more sleepy GOLD BUGS to Blow Dry the Powder. My thought and predisposition is to Buy anything and everything remotely shiney if there is such a pause. If no pause--the same.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Good ol' Boy -- My screen shows a Kitco posting of 4.985 as of 13:01. Why is yours different?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:41 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Good ol' Boy -- And Dec silver closed at 5.03.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:41 - ID#43349)
@Good ol' boy
I believe spot closed the day at 4.98

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:42 - ID#26362)
darned if I know
At the top of the Kikco, my screen says $3.52 at 10:36 NYT. I went to gold eagal and there I found Kitco's same quote. Guess we are not on the same page.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:43 - ID#33182)
@chas: Abby says 9300 by end of 1998

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:44 - ID#43349)
That's what mine shows too. That's when the screen froze up as it is often wont to do here on Kitco. The market closes at 14:30

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:45 - ID#288295)

I have no problem with trading in and out ( although I'm not especially good at it ) ...My concern is only the possibility of not being able to get out if a panic should hit.

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:45 - ID#26362)
same shows gold at $385.40,
is that the current price, something strange going on

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:45 - ID#26362)
same shows gold at $385.40,
is that the current price, something strange going on

Good ol' boy
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:46 - ID#26362)
thanks to all kitcoites
feel better now

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Gollum -- Typically true. But not before the Holiday.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:46 - ID#252127)

If thats true, future Goldman Sachs shareholders will be left holding the bag, by paying that bill, by loss in share value. Sounds a bit farout.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:48 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Silverbaron -- What, you can't give your broker a standing buy/sell order if a 'target' is met?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:49 - ID#242325)
Gold and Oil
I know this will rattle JP's cage but Jude Wanniski says WHERE GOLD LEADS OIL QUICKLY FOLLOWS. And the economy will be in trouble until gold gets back to $325.

Memo To: Website fans, browsers and clients
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: The Northwest Strike

Under normal circumstances, the collective bargaining process would have been able to produce
a contract prior to the deadline. What is not normal is that the national economy is being
whipsawed by the worst monetary turbulence since the 1870s, although it is similar to the
monetary deflation of 1981-82. The breakdown between Northwest management and the
Northwest pilots is due to the fact that both sides are unaware of the external financial forces
over which they have no control. The turbulence has been caused by policy errors at the Federal
Reserve, our central bank. Here is what I mean:

1. In a true monetary inflation, the entire general price level moves up to get back in line with a
fall in the dollars value relative to gold. Gold is the most monetary of all commodities, which is
why it is always the first dollar price to rise when the Fed makes an inflationary error. When
there is this kind of upward shift in the gold price because the error persists, other commodity
prices will follow in train, and eventually prices of everything in the price universe will settle at
the new higher plateau. Because oil also has more monetary properties than most other
commodities -- it wont spoil, for example -- it is among the first to follow a gold price rise. We
observed this in 1971-73, when President Nixon took us off the gold standard and the gold price
quadrupled, to $140/oz. from $35/oz. Only then was it possible for the world price of oil to
follow in tandem, quadrupling to $10/bbl. from $2.50/bbl.

2. When the central bank makes an error in the opposite direction, by not supplying the liquidity
the market economy demands, the first price to fall also is gold. That is, when "dollars" become
scarce relative to gold, the dollar price of gold falls. Other commodity prices are forced to follow
in train, the order in the train depending on their monetary characteristics. Again, oil will be
among the first to adjust to the new, lower general price level demanded by the dollar/gold price

3. In understanding why your contract talks thus far have failed, note that in the last five years
the dollar/gold price has followed an inflationary path from 1993 to late 1996, and from then has
followed a deflationary path. That is, a relatively steady gold price from 1985 to 1993 ended in
late 1993 when the Fed supplied more liquidity than the market demanded. The gold price rose to
a $385 plateau from the $350 plateau. Other prices began to rise in train, including the price of
oil. In late 1996, the market began demanding more dollar liquidity, but the Fed refused to
supply it. The price of gold has been dropping ever since, fed by global demands for dollar
liquidity associated with this scarcity. This is a true monetary deflation -- not simply a
temporary fall in SOME prices associated with a recessionary decline in the demand for goods.

4. In such a deflationary scenario, an airline is subject to the abnormal forces in an unusual way,
because its cost of doing business is so heavily dependent upon the price of oil. In the first
instance, an airline company will enjoy unusual profits, because the price of fuel declines
sharply. An airline in the United States, which is not primarily a commodity economy, will
benefit even more than an airline in a country that primarily serves commodity production. That
is, traffic remains high while costs decline, thus producing extraordinary profits.

5. In the second instance, though, other prices caught in the deflation scenario change the profit
picture for the airline. Its passenger traffic begins to decline, first because its own commodity
producers -- U.S. farmers, miners, oil producers and the communities that serve them -- are
forced to economize on air travel. As the deflation plays out, all other producers are forced to
economize on their air travel as well, with the airline company forced to cut ticket prices to offset
the decline in demand.

6. The stock market, as we know, anticipates the profit picture. As it sees the dollar/gold price at
$280 instead of the $385 plateau, it knows the happy time for airline profits are behind it, with
the crush of competition on the near horizon. This is why airline stocks rose last year and have
fallen in recent months. Unless the Federal Reserve allows for sufficient liquidity to push the
gold price up to at least $325, the economy will remain in this deflationary environment.

7. Unfortunately, Northwest pilots began their contract planning in last years happy time. They
had taken pay cuts during the recession caused by the Bush tax increase of 1990 and hoped to
return to at least that pay scale in this contract period. This was an entirely reasonable goal, and
one Northwest could have met if the Federal Reserve had stopped the dollar deflation a year ago
at $325 gold. This would have meant slightly lower fuel prices, but would not have wrecked
other commodity producers who are part of the passenger picture. At $280 gold, no airline could
afford to pay its pilots at the scale now in effect throughout the system. If Northwest agreed to
the pilot demands, it would soon be bankrupt.

8. The only reasonable solution at Northwest would be a one-year extension of the current
contract. This is because nobody in the world knows what the Federal Reserve will do about the
deflation. On the record, its most recent pronouncement was that it is still more worried about
inflation than deflation. A great policy debate is now unfolding, with Jack Kemp having the
political lead in arguing that the Fed should add liquidity until gold reaches $325. If the Fed
tomorrow announced this as policy, the market would immediately bid gold to $325, knowing
the liquidity would follow.

9. At this level, the gap between management and labor at Northwest would vanish, for the most
part, and a contract would soon be in hand. Because we are not likely to see the Fed follow
Kemps advice in the immediate future, the risks associated with these monetary uncertainties
cannot be accepted by Northwest management, nor should the unions insist they do so. A simple
extension of the current contract, with a handshake understanding that it will be reopened when
the smoke clears, is the most reasonable and logical course of action.

10. With so much acrimony in the air between management and labor, it would be wise for
President Clinton to get Northwest back into the air with an executive order, and encourage
discussion along the lines suggested here. Once both sides realize why the unusual deflationary
episode is the root cause of their ability to come to terms, the air should clear and a constructive
path of discussion opened.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:50 - ID#25257)
Coefficient of Restitution
Come on you self-proclaimed Erudites! What about the Bounce?

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:52 - ID#295111)
ABX-Barrick Gold-CLOSED AT $16.7500 1.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.83
ASL-Ashanti Gold-CLOSED AT $6.7500 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.18
BMG-Battle Mountain-CLOSED AT $4.6250 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.51
CDE-Coeur D'Alene-CLOSED AT $6.0625 0.8750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.06
FCX-Freeport Mc-CLOSED AT $13.4375 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.40
GGO-Getchell Gold-CLOSED AT $13.0000 1.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.18
HL-Hecla Mining-CLOSED AT $4.5000 0.6250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.11
HM-Homestake Gold-CLOSED AT $12.0000 0.9375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.64
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $20.0000 2.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.40
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $11.3125 1.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.02

XAU CLOSED AT 64.69 6.41


(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:52 - ID#43349)
Oh yes, the holiday. I would have missed out on it. Wondered where everyone was at.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:53 - ID#288295)

Normally, yes - no what may be coming the week after next ( if it happens ) , who knows? There are an awful lot of folks out there to panic, this time. Being trapped in the market may be the order of the day.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:53 - ID#266105)
zeke/higher math

The coefficient of restitution


Restitution, good name for sailboat. That and all sparking
its imperative ( S&Ls ) , on fine day sailing Coos Bay can sweetly
kiss my stern.

Back to floor oiling.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:56 - ID#373284)
a friend just sent this to me in an is much longer...but I know you folks will love it
This is still in the beginning stages but here are some of the beginnings of a Gold Stinks campaign. Thought you might be interested in this.

Got a favorite name for the campaign that you would like to throw into the pool along with Cold Shoulder Gold, Hust the Rush, Lower the Fever and Gold Stinks?

for the Earth,

Ruth Rosenhek
Rainforest Information Centre


With Berkeley-based Project Underground and others, we at the Rainforest
Information Centre are starting to work with various groups around the world on a campaign to make gold "stink" because of the extraordinary
environmental and social damage it causes.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 18:57 - ID#242325)
You are being quoted as an authority on crashes: This by Dan Ascanti

Countdown To A Crash

Today's Market Commentary

September 4, 1998 02:56 GMT -- With reservation, we observe the following historical pattern that may be
of extreme interest to all investors and traders in this time of record market declines.

I say this because we do not enjoy being the bearer of bad news, especially when it involves a record market
collpase ( although we would be remiss in failing to forecast it when our models suggest so ) . The month of
August already goes down as the worst month in stock market history. Sure, many people rationalize it by
pointing out that it was not the largest percentagedecline for a single month. However, we counter with the fact
that the dollar amount investors lost in August 1998 corresponds closely with the dollar amount investors lost in
the 1987 collapse, adjusted for inflation. Therefore, we do not feel many investors are rationalizing a loss of,
say, $25,000 in their portfolios for a single month by chanting "well, it isn't as great a percentage as 1987 or
even 1929." Instead, the pain currently being felt by investors during the brief time this summer when the
average NYSE stock has lost over 30% of its value is indeed greater than the media portrays.

Yet, a look at history and a so-called "crash pattern" reveals an alarming dose of reality: not only may the stock
market have more to go to the downside, but it may actually crash--not in October, as most investors would
expect, but this month--in September.

We only hope that the old adage "this time, it's different" applies here, since there is a ray of hope that perhaps
the path of history will not be repeated yet again. Still, the crash pattern continues, and history that does not
repeat itself at least rhymes.

Our daily research products for this week eloborate in more detail this crash pattern, as will our
soon-to-be-published September issue of The Global Market Strategist. In a nutshell, for many reasons bull
markets always end in a collapse of some kind, even if not a crash. The 1800-point, 20% collapse in the Dow
and corresponding 30% collapse in the average NYSE stock since the July bull market peak certainly qualifies as
a collapse.

However, market crashes have, historically, occurred on top of the initial market collapse. Both in 1929 and in
1987, the market crashed a full six weeks after the bull market peak and after a significant decline had already

To detail this one step further, I can add that the so-called crash pattern to which I refer in this analysis involves a
more precise count than one might imagine. For example, in the two major crashes this century--1929 and
1987--the market crashed between the 34th trading day and the 41st trading day from the bull market peak.
Friday, September 4, 1998, is--you guessed it--the 34th trading day from the July 20, 1998 bull market peak.
With our other market cycles pointing hard down, and with the market in technical trouble and the global
economy in severe fundamental trouble, this crash pattern does not help the situation and, in fact, may be
reflecting the rapid transformation from a state of investor greed to a state of fear that typically occurs in a
post-bull market environment.

Additionally, without inserting our own personal opinion on any potential connection between astronomical
activity and the market, we can take this even a step further by citing research by a man named Puetz, who
analyzed eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo
crash of 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to occur near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. The
greatest number of crashes, he states, start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is
also a lunar eclipse. The ensuing panic generally lasts from two to four weeks. Amazingly, that rare
astronomical formation occurs Sunday, September 6, 1998, a lunar eclipse following the solar eclipse of
mid-August--right within the typical window between the 34th and 41st days of the crash pattern being
discussed here.

Moreover, as we have reported in our research, the secondary rally phase before a crash typically ends 38
calendar days after the bull market top. In 1929, 1987, and in Tokyo in 1990, the secondary rally phases
peaked exactly on or within one day ( Tokyo ) of that 38th day. In 1998, the rally phase peaked on the 37th day,
on August 25, 1998.

The reader should not infer that we are or are not predicting a market crash. A bull market peak on July 20,
1998, yes--that was in our forecast, but whether or not a crash actually occurs remains to be seen, and certainly
we would prefer if one did not occur. The effects on the economy and the average investor would be
devestating. However, given the eerie similarities to past crash patterns, we would be remiss in not alerting
readers to the distinct possibility that the bull market of the 1990s is ending no different than the mega-bull
markets of past history, whether or not a repeat of this pattern is, in fact, in progress.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:00 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Tell 'em that will only increase the gold price and create more demand for it, and its 'diggins'!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:00 - ID#215235)
The price of silver and silver mining shares
If the gold bull has indeed begun, can the silver bull be far behind? Silver mining shares such as SSC look underpriced and ready for a bounce up. I am already heavily invested in gold mining shares and am wondering if this is a good time to prepare for the eventual rise in silver prices by buying silver mining shares. Any and all comments are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:02 - ID#25257)
Thanks for the Retort. Everybody else is cooking ribs. Cedar Key ( you'll sea ( sic ) it soon in a movie ) is a few stones from here. Sailing the Seahorse Key is a must in this mileu. Just wanted a take on next week. Do you see a Buyer's Pause, oh Erudite One?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:03 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' and a fine Holiday gulp and a puff at ya...Mexico...good grief...
another basket case created by the US government and IMF...the people in Mexico starve but the fatcats get stinks...the average man and woman can't get a loan...but you can bet the "friends" of the bankers have no problems at stinks...

Best thing to do is make sure you have some of your assets buried or outside of the US telling what the dirtbags in D.C. will TRY... ( keyword ) TRY to do for the good of us...We the People...when the BIG SHOE drops right here at home...although...there may be the chance that whomever takes over from Clintler will realize the suicidal aspects of trying to piss off the American people...time will tell...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:07 - ID#396249)
Jack..I'am shocked wheres your sence of adventure...conspiracys are fun...besides banks have been

doing that for years....they don't have much
option, a bad loan has shelf life if payments
are not mad it has to be written off...bad
news for the balance sheet they lend
more to show I think
Goldman did blow it if there IPO had made it
to market a few weeks ago,they would of
cleaned up

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:08 - ID#373284)
Dutchman, Namaste' any consideration of silver shares...the number one on your
list should be PAASF-Pan American Silver...then FSR-First Silver Reserve at least in my opinion from reading and listening to many whom I always do your own homework...I am fully invested and I am buying more as I can pile it on at these prices...and of course IMVHO

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:08 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Actually, you should also respond with the damage caused by the 'paper hangers' and THEIR tree/environment requirements.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:09 - ID#288295)
Inpathique update Sept 4 TSE Precious Metals Index
This system still says down for the TSE Precious Metals Index.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:09 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.62. The 233 day moving average is 28.38

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:10 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .225. The 233 day moving average is .254

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:12 - ID#26793)
Gold/Silver Ratio = 57.63

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:12 - ID#373284)
Eldorado, Namaste' a fine Holiday gulp and a puff at ya...the environmental people
lost me long ago...there are certain smaller organizations I support but overall I have found them to be just money sucking machines with some sort of pseudo environmental social agenda which makes no fu_king sense to a scallop...

Crystal Ball
(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:14 - ID#287367)
a wee bitty joke for Haggis
In the Highlands of Scotland, Mr. Stewart's wife went into labor in the middle of the night, and the doctor was called out to assist in the delivery.

To keep the nervous father-to-be busy, the doctor handed him a lantern and said, "Here, you hold this high so I can see what I'm doing."

Soon, a wee baby boy was brought into the world.

"Whoa there Scotty!" said the doctor. "Don't be in a rush to put the lantern down...I think there's yet another wee one to come."
Sure enough, within minutes he had delivered another little baby.

"No, no, don't be in a great hurry to be putting down that lantern, young man...It seems there's yet another one besides!" cried the doctor.

The new father scratched his head in bewilderment, and asked the
doctor. "Do ye think it's the light that's attractin' them?"

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:14 - ID#45173)
Thanks for your excellent and, as usual, clear response.

My wife's home now. I've been travelling. I'll get back to you later.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:15 - ID#25257)
Not the Average Bounce
The question should be: What is the lowest Dow/Gold ratio we can expect. Since this Bounce in Gold Issues is exceptional, what should be the Rule for this particlular case?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:15 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- yupper!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:15 - ID#432148)
Silverbaron (To buy or not to buy, that is the question;-)
After reading Steven Kaplan today
I agree with him, some would normally be given back after a 32% increase in the XAU in four days. So, your question is a good one. Timing again is of the essence, of course. I have been nibbling for some time. If Russia falls apart we will see a continuation of the tone of the last few days IMHO. That is a big part of this question. Things certainly are in a quandary, much bigger than usual. These are unusual times and a lot of the babies are going to get their education enhanced. Maybe they are starting to smell it already, the smarter ones at least. Buy on the dips, huh ;- )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:18 - ID#266105)

No retort, bud ( weiser ) . I've no confidence in guesses.

To clarify, Ise just another bozo on a sidestreet over yon,
modest tastes and moderate means. Y'know, wife, kids, mortage, the whole catastrophe.

( off )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:19 - ID#39857)
yeh gold stinks big time. the whole world stinks. my water stinks
whats the difference if we watch it sail to $US100 cause when the nukes
start to fly well there will be zip to focus on except if
ya mayan

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:20 - ID#411233)
@Farfel--hmmmmm--Good Point
What are your feelings on the market, and gold for next week?
Thinking about buying some SSRIF, looks like its starting to move. Know
anything about this co?

Away from the PM'S, made a killing this week on Noranda, a base metal

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:23 - ID#25257)
Scallops! Now there's an idea! They've been coming in big-time in Cedar Key lately. You just pull up to the key and unload the boat--throw the kids and company out. Snorkle around for awhile and load the boat with the little bivalves. Cacciatore has nothing on these little boogers in Sicilano Sauce with Angle Hair pasta.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:23 - ID#252391)
Re: GSR and SWC
Anybody have any thoughts positive or negative about GSR or is it just to lame for anybody's interest.

RE SWC: my favorite, next to HGMCY.

I think SWC will earn between $1.65 and $2 next year based on current PD and PT prices. Hit that with what ever multiple you like. I prefer 20 and see $40 sometime in the first quarter '99 given current prices. I think $50 is too high an objective and I would be a seller in that zone unless Pt and PD prices have rallied which they might if we don't go into a deep recession. - THat is the question, now - the level of demand for I thnk Russian supplies are out of the picture.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:23 - ID#243420)
The following is from Cory Hamasaki's latest Y2k weather report, which can be seen at
Infomagic says:
If you remember, I've been predicting a stock market collapse for more
than a year, as the prelude to the Y2K collapse. I predicted the
collapse for the October/November time frame, this year. I still
stand by that, and I also still predict a full scale global depression
by the end of this year.
The 512 point drop is _not_ the real collapse, although it does
indicate the increasing level of fear which will lead to the real
collapse in a month or two.
The simple fact is that the global economy is in _much_ worse shape
than most americans or europeans admit. Russia is a relatively small
part of that economy, but look at the effect their problems have had.
Just wait until Asia and South America _really_ tank ( which can't belong ) .
I think you would be crazy to go anywhere near stocks ( or bonds ) from
this point on. Don't forget that, like Y2K, you would be dependent on
your business partners ( brokers ) . If they go bust, so do you, and
when the bubble really bursts they _will_ go bust.
You would be far better off buying physical gold. At well under $300,
this is a much better opportunity. I think that gold prices are being
manipulated through rumors by major players who are at massive risk
with short positions they cannot cover if the metal rises more than afew bucks.
I think the price will rise significantly fairly soon when Russia
effectively goes back on the gold standard ( it's their only possible
way out of their monetary crisis, and to a certain extent it's already
happening ) . This will only accelerate when the euro is introduced at
the beginning of next year ( and I'll bet with much higher gold backing
than anyone is suggesting right now ) .
After _our_ stock market bubble bursts, kicking off the global
depression, they just won't have any choice. Gold will be the only
"currency" that anyone will trust.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:24 - ID#173274)
@the scene
zeke -- One should probably expect a semblance of a correction at some point. Don't know when or how high it might go 'till that happens. Sometimes support and resistance levels are cut through VERY easily, depending on the 'times'. But those are the areas to pay attention to. Right now, IT's goin' UP until IT says otherwise. Find two places: one to get in at and one to protect your ASSets at!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:24 - ID#252127)
May just 5% of MR. ANOTHER'S high gold prediction bless you

The XAU should crack its 100 day moving average next week when it keeps its momentum.

With a couple of ten to twenty dollar plus spot gold movements a baby gold bull will be born, strong, healthy and able to resist the fiat bullcrap disease.

Lets hope that the man on the street joins in to send the metals to appropriate highs.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:31 - ID#225283)
Media Alert

Looks like the media is finally letting the
general public in on the possible BUll coming
on in Gold...CNBC posted a graphic showing
that Gold Stocks were up 33% for the week...I
am buying with both hands andb hoping for a
test of $277.00 before the big BULL leg up...GO GOLD!!!!!!SA verses US fiat makes for some Great buys at this point!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:32 - ID#25257)
Kids, dogs, cows--you name it, we got it here in The Land of Sun and Fun.
I think this thing is going straight up! That's why I tell anybody who will listen, "Buy anything and everything that Shines." Hopefully we will have a reprieve next week for GOLD BUGS with damp powder.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:32 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Hedgehog -- Whatever ideas/ideals blows ones skirt up. Got your 'foxhole' dug, or have you given up?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:32 - ID#409286)
Does someone have farfel's E-mail address. If you do please send it to me at This borad is going down hill as the better posters leave. This board is only as good as the whole. Does anyone remember Another, Farfel, Mike S.. Does anyone know the definition of
Synergy? I don't think so.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:35 - ID#173274)
@the scene
ray -- As far as I know, at least most of them are still welcome to post here. Perhaps they have personal problems or lack of interest.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:40 - ID#268260)
Tolerant 1
Namaste' to you. Thanks for your suggestions. I will check them out.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Lets ROCK this place tonight!!! Let's make it JUST as GOOD as it can GET!

That being said, I will again ask:
A questioning concept; Wonder why they NEED to raise rates to contract 'growth' when all they REALLY need to do is just say no to a potential borrower. Answers anyone?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:40 - ID#225283)

Two of my favorites ...been trading dirt with both hands ...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:45 - ID#268260)
I live in Tallahassee. A good friend of mine was run over by a commercial fisherman while scalloping. The dirt bag ignored his bouys. Be careful. Send me some of those prized suckers!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
RJ -- I said last night that I thought a good argument may be made for the bottom being in on gold. I think the key detractor of that scenario is the PPT, ''Physical' Plunger Team'.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:49 - ID#343171)
ray re:farfel
he hangs at:

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:50 - ID#39857)
Oh boy the BIG BANG
Friday 4 September, 1998 ( 9:45pm AEST )

Indonesian police have issued a warrant for the arrest of one of former
President Suharto's sons.

Mark Bowling reports Suharto's second son, Bam Bang, is imbroiled in
a banking scandal and has already been questioned by Police.

Bank Andrometer, owned by Bam Bang Triahatmodjo, was closed
down by the Indonesian Government last November for allegedly
violating Indonesia's limits. Bam Bang is one of ten bank officials
sumonsed to testify before an investigation team. Meanwhile,
Suharto's close friend business tycoon Bob Hasaan, has testified that
he used central bank funds to finance part of a paper making company
he owns. He's promised to pay back millions of dollars if given the
chance. Mark Bowling, Jakarta DUR:0:31

(Fri Sep 04 1998 19:58 - ID#173274)
@the scene
I will make a STANDING statement that I do NOT want to see a crash in the markets, bonds or dollars, for to see that will necessitate the use of the 'foxhole', and I would just as soon see civilization exist. Even if it means that gold had to go to ZERO! I would rather polish my bullets, coins, cans of food, etc., than to have to use them!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:00 - ID#235295)
@Greenspan "...won't escape turmoil.."

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:02 - ID#347235)
Wouldn't this be great for gold?
Rueters reports that acting PM Chernomyrdin would like to tie the rouble to gold. The Russsiain Minister of Finance also favors this plan.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:05 - ID#266105)

Lets ROCK this place tonight!!! Let's make it JUST as GOOD as it can GET!


Like so many others, I gave at the office..........

( snort! )

Hey lurkin' woody------ someday everythin's gonna be different

when I paint my masterpiece.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:08 - ID#432221)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:10 - ID#173274)
@the scene
2BR02B? -- Well Hell! Your kindly 'DISertation' is 'much' appreciated'! HAR!!! Thanks for giving 'again'!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:11 - ID#347235)
Reuters --from Friday Sept 4

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:11 - ID#373284)
here is a beauty on Clintler...
He has mastered the art of equivocation. There is something
almost inhuman in his smoother responses that sends a shiver
up the spine. It is not the compromises he has made that
trouble so much as the unavoidable suspicion that he has no
principles to compromise. -- Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on
Mr. Clinton, Oct. 28, 1992.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:11 - ID#401460)
Copper Up ... Deflation?
December High Grade Copper


(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:16 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Same could be said for those that control the newsprint.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:16 - ID#373284)
anybody interested in America should visit here regularly...or sign up for their email
Visit THE FEDeralist at:

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:16 - ID#266105)

Back to the floors.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:23 - ID#153110)
@Eldorado @rate increases & new credit contraction
The higher rate is a hurdle not susceptible to administrative interpretation.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:24 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Anybody out there that doesn't think that Clinton will not wind up resigning, for whatever reason?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:24 - ID#401460)
AG they may lower?

Fed Concerned About Global Crisis

``It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased stress,'' Greenspan said in a speech Friday at the University of California, Berkeley.

But Greenspan revealed in Friday's speech that the same policymakers in their meeting last month decided that the global turmoil posed a growing threat to U.S. prosperity -- and are now just as likely to vote to cut interest rates.

``Periods of euphoria or distress tend to feed on themselves,'' he added.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:29 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Supply and demand. But is that the ONLY way a contraction might take place? How about just proclaiming that ONLY the MOST credit worthy will be 'considered'. And then raise THAT criteria as necessary.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:30 - ID#432221)
Eldorado, I hope he hangs on for a while,

max collateral damage to the Demos. Imagine, the top Demo a whoremongering adulterer. Is anyone really surprised?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:30 - ID#43460)
jims re SWC
Using your more pessemistic earnings number $1.65 multiplying by a pessemistic p/e of 7, which might reflect the market p/e in a moderate bear market we come up with $11.55. Jes' curious 'bout if you're prepared to hang on if times get bad.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:30 - ID#252127)

What concerns me about copper, is that over the past 8 weeks the warehouse stocks at the LME have increased steadly. This could be because of the European summer lull, but that copper is holding its own is encouraging. gives London metalprices and warehouse stock, with daily changes

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:31 - ID#153110)
1. Susceptible to administrative interpretation
2. Expensive to police
3. Has no effect in any lending entity not subject to the decree

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:31 - ID#287129)
It is only a personal opinion: but I do not believe that Clinton will resign. One of his strengths is perseverance. He has successfully gotten out of many tight jams over the years, and I believe that he will continue to do so. I believe that he would face impeachment proceedings before resigning; although if I'm wrong, it would not be the first time in my life ( nor the last time ) that I'm incorrect. This is almost like a soap opera of worldwide proportions. Personally, I don't care who Clinton goes to bed with ( as long as it is by mutual consent ) ; but I have a personal difficulty with his misleading the public about it. Had he 'fessed up last January, I believe he would be better off today. That's just my opinion. Also, I wish his actions did not have any negative impact on the financial markets.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:33 - ID#373284)
Hedgehog, Namaste' and a fine holiday gulp and puff to ya...just saw your post
I am always prepared for the worst...or at least try to be...who knows what can happen in a thing I do don't stink...

Although if any one man is responsible for bringing the world to such a dangerous point it is Clintler...the past six years have been a foreign affairs nightmare to say the least...and jack's ass Clintler won't be the one to pay the price...his being a grade A sc_mbag for all the world to see is no consolation for the lives that will be lost due to his arrogant follies and stupidity...I say we send all the politicians and media members kids first...un huh...I think they should all be marked in some way so the terrorists know who to blow up instead of normal American civilians...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:35 - ID#373284)
Eldorado, Namaste'
If he does decide to resign...I have the pen ready...uh huh...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:37 - ID#317193)
F*...thanks...I need to not let such person(s) bother me. Yes?

PS...he knows my name too!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:39 - ID#401460)
Missing the party

Not worth much! SA vs NA 0


(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- You must not be an Engineer; one who can make ANY marketing concept work. THINK! After all, if one HAS to borrow at a 50% interest rate, ask the question, 'WHY'? Cash flow problems? And that DOES make re-payment oh-so much more difficult to make good. There HAS to be a better way!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:45 - ID#153110)
@The Sorcerer's Book of Incantations Exposed
``Clearly, the history of large swings in investor confidence and equity premiums for rational and other reasons counsels caution in the current context,'' he said.
``Periods of euphoria or distress tend to feed on themselves,'' he added.
The other, the emotional reasons, are beyond policy control.

As far as I am concerned Greenspan has stated the economists are no different than witch doctors or rain dancers. Their whole influence, if there is any at all, is placebo effect on crowd psychology.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:46 - ID#210114)
Beaming In......

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:48 - ID#147201)
Cage Rattler
Abby may be right, but I can't believe that bitch.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:51 - ID#210114)
Greeting Kitcoites!!

Have been very busy lately and haven't had time to ponder the viccisitudes of the gold market.

In previous post I have been sceptical of a gold bull.

However, I have agreed with those who have argued that a fall in confidence in the $US and $US dominated assetts would be the start of a bull market for the noble metal.

While the US$ has fallen in recent days, I think it is too early to call a bull market or anything else at the moment. Having said that, there may be a little hope on the horizon.

I have argued that gold need to break above $US 300 AND STAY THERE for any gold bull to be confirmed. I still hold to that view.

I am still holding my bullion purchases and wait anxiously for further developments.

Wishing you all the best of luck.

Live Long and Prosper.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:51 - ID#344225)
@ OLD GOLD RE: Your 18:49
That was one of the most interesting posts that I have
read in a long while.

Could it be that AG is growing senile? I have always
felt that he was taking the "Inflation Fighter" thing to
an extreme. I was also positive that his last report to
Congress about more fear of inflation being present
rather than deflation was JUST DEAD WRONG.

Jack Kemp is very knowledgeable abouthow GOLD works in the
market place. If Bob Dole and Kemp would have won the last
election what do you think the price of GOLD would be today?

Kemp is pro GOLD STANDARD for the US Dollar.

Thanks a million for that post.

I saw the XOI and other commodities moving up today, and I
said to myself: WHY? It puzzled me that they seem to all
come alive at the same time. A LIGHT HAS DAWNED....

That post is worth money in the bank....NAH..It's worth it's
weight in GOLD.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:53 - ID#288286)
buy now
ssc has been verygood to me and i highly recommend it. I wish icould buy twice as much. i have been trading it for ten years and have always made money. I have owned it at 3.50 and made money. It is a steal now.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:53 - ID#206235)
Cspan tonight will have both the IMF roundtable policy discussion, and Alan Greenspan. ( Two separate One hr. segments ) , sheck yer local listings.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:54 - ID#413273)
Just been watching Greenspan on C-Span at Berkley...he spoke for 25 minutes here is the transcript

RUNAWAY RUNAWAY thanks to Monty Python...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:55 - ID#28994)

My Daddy taught me to always carry two pens..if one failed you could lose the sale. In your case AAAAAAAAAAAaaaggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh Clinter might stay in office.
May the great spirits never end there flow... A chug to u.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:56 - ID#213219)

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:56 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- IF a bank or lending institution is only allowed to loan an 'x' percentage or a strict amount, that would not necessitate a higher rate of interest on a loan. Especially if, by law, those loans were not allowed to be 'bidded' for.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 20:58 - ID#190411)
mozel versus the fed
The last is one of the funnier quips that you have thrown our way. LOL
Are you just tuning up?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:01 - ID#401460)

Communist want to impeach Yeltsin. Yeltsin will cancel the Duma so they can't take a vote. There is no government in Russia .....anybody want a NUCLEAR BOMB!

And the mess gets worse every day.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:03 - ID#173274)
@the scene
highrise -- welcome to the 'future'!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:05 - ID#153110)
Mozel: always in search of sharper razors and better whetstones. Expecially so after exposure to statements from the Fed ones which invariably dull the wit.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:05 - ID#187109)
Bill will not resign.

Reason: He likes it where he is and his term is not over. That is all. a most excellent dinner bash


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:06 - ID#187109)
ALL focus has shifted to the home-run race ;- )

uh huh the crack of the bat


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:06 - ID#186147)
Now is the time for all good men to..............
I am soul brother to all goldbugs. I have tried to help as many of you as possible to conserve some $$$ to use when gold/PM investing once again made sense. The mighty US$ died this week. What this portends for gold/PM investors should be obvious. I am long gold stocks. Will look for them to lead the metal for a few weeks. If this happens, I'll be heavily into the sector by winter. Good luck. Good hunting.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:07 - ID#254321)
Bounces and coefficient of restitution - coherence in the markets.
Zeke: Are you referring to the gold markets or the equities markets, and are you talking about a bounce up or down?

My intuitive guess is that the market is not very superball-like. ( Ever throw a superball into a squash court while one of your friends is inside? ) A friend did that to me in college -- excellent lesson in what a 95% coefficient of restitution can do. I was lying on the floor with my hands over my head for about 5 minutes. There was no way I was going to hit that superball.

The coefficient of restitution of the markets is not very high. And its coherence length for the time period chosen is not very long, either, with a tendency to suddenly shift to a new paradigm.

I think all that fibonacci stuff, and Sharefin's pings, etc. indicate that the markets have a hidden coherence that comes out suddenly ( almost without warning ) at certain times. I still don't have a clear picture of this, but I think a wave model in a tank is probably closer to the truth -- you see chaos most of the time, but if the walls are flat, and there was a coherent wave at one time, you can envision an 'echo' at another time. After a time all the waves die out, and another stimulus is needed. Describing that hidden coherence in the market when it appears to be chaos is nearly impossible ( at the current time, anyway ) -- you must wait until the coherence shows itself, and try to come up with the wave components. Periodic referenc markers -- if you can find them -- help.

Somehow Zeil has done better in this that anyone I know -- problem is -- you won't know how long his model will hold before a completely new coherence model is needed. Whatever model you choose must include constant testing and retesting of the coefficients of the model -- to see if the rules have changed.

I have seen one web site years ago - by an engineer -- lost the address -- who showed analytically that if the markets are given a big enough shock, a strong rebound can occur -- 1.618 comes up. The reproducibility and precision was stunning in his example. Forgot how he analyzed the phenomenon. A major problem is -- knowing when the market shock is big enough to get a 'bounce'.

Another mind boggler is the logarithmic spiral of Fischer, which shows that the 1.618 ratio comes up both before and after major peaks in the market -- in time and space. I find this really hard conceptually, as it appears that the markets actually develop coherence before the triggering event you are observing. How do the markets know how to behave before ( underline before ) the event? Well they do appear that way. The simple ( and possibley incorrect ) assumption is that the coherence related to the coming event occurs before the actual event. This seems to violate the human concept of causality. Could it be that big events only occur if the markets have an underlying coherence building up at the time? Perhaps. I find this hard to believe, as causality would tell you that the coherence should only occur after the event. Does a baseball jump up in the air to be hit? How can it know that it will be hit before the bat hits it? How can the waves in the lake form before the rock falls in it?

There is a message here, but it is beyond my simple understanding. I have trouble with events that begin before they happen.

From a practical side, how do you know those little fluctuations in the market are precursors for a big event, before the big event happens, or something of no significance? I think this is the biggest problem with Elliot wave analysis -- there are so many ways to interpret the data, it is hard to discern what comes next. Really hard if you can find turning points, but not the direction and magnitude, as is often the case. Too many variables and not enough equations.

I will keep thinging about this -- interesting that market space and time behavior both show dependence on the fibonacci series. Sounds like something Einstein would have something to say about.

Thinking a bit more, what I suspect this is saying is that we must apply quantum mechanics to the markets. This type of analysis is in its infancy. We know alot about quantum mechanics on the microsopic level, but very little is known on our level of size. And we know that we can have macroquantization. The orbital periods of the planets are quantized, and two of Jupiters moons have orbital periods that show a quantum type relationship. Fascinating -- this should not be. This new fiend of macroquantum mechanics is intimately connected to fractal analysis, and the Fibonacci series.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:09 - ID#373284)
I say Yeltsin is dead in 3 months...write it down...maybe sooner...he is toast and
they ain't going to put up with him much longer...hell...they have to darn near hold him up anyway...and know...Jack's ass in D.C. well he has been shooting off that famous mouth of his about all that great progress Yeltsin has been making...billions and billions have been sent to Russia and the fatcats get fatter and the people starve and freeze...

Yeltsin is toast and buttered on both is just a matter of time and it will not just be to get rid of will be a message to the West that things have changed..uh huh...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:09 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- NONE of this bespeaks of the fact that we MUST get off of the usury-based system. It only begs the question, if, under the current system, a better way could easily and more fairly be had. That's all.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:10 - ID#344236)
@Hut/ re your 20.02. Russian gold

Will Boris Fyodorov's Plan Save Russia?
A working group under the leadership of Fyodorov, acting deputy prime minister and tax chief, has been preparing a plan to save the country's economy. Three foreign consultants are helping to draw up the document, including the author of the Argentinean "economic miracle" Domingo Cavallo, a Bundesbank former president and a Harvard professor.

Acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin speech containing the plan for financial miracle is due to be delivered by at the Federation Council.
The situation is very similar to that of 1991, when Yegor Gaidar's team proposed radical economic reforms and invited foreign consultants. Then, Russia was prescribed "Polish-style shock therapy." Now, a more radical Argentinean option has been chosen as the model for Russia.

The daily said the main innovation of the program is the system of currency management. Its essence can be boiled down to the statement that a country's economy should not have more money in circulation than it has reserves in gold or hard currency. Every ruble should be guaranteed by gold and currency. In this case,even with a negative balance, the country would be secured against a sharp decline in the national currency.
This system has already been adopted in Argentina, Hong Kong, Lithuania and Estonia.
On Thursday, Malaysia announced the introduction of a fixed exchange rate pegged on the dollar, which means that the country will follow the same economic course.
The daily said the problem is that this system should have been introduced in 1997, when Russia had considerable currency reserves. According to specialists, in order to mimpose the "currency board" system now, Russia needs 2.5 times its present reserves of about $10 billion.
According to Interpol, Russian citizens have a total of $100 billion to $200 billion hidden in their homes and other places. However, economists have not yet found a way to bring this money out.

During his address to the Federation Council on Friday, Chernomyrdin pledged that the government would introduce harsh, and likely unpopular, measures to restore stability to the country's financial markets and stop the ruble's downward spiral. The plan includes backing the ruble with gold and foreign reserves, introducing a floatingruble and controlled monetary emission.

Banks Are Besieged Again
On Thursday morning, long lines queued in front of the Moscow branches of six large banks: SBS-Agro, MENATEP, Inkombank, Promstroibank, Mosbiznesbank and
MOST Bank.
The new wave of banking crisis was prompted by the central bank's announcement on Wednesday that people could transfer their accounts from these banks to the state-owned Sberbank, where they would be insured. This statement was meant to calm individual depositors. Instead, people rushed to the branches to withdraw cash from their accounts.
Izvestiya visited a number of the banks' branches in the center of Moscow. Tellers were not releasing cash at any of them, nor were the bank machines working. People crowded inside and outside the banks, drawing up waiting lists of customers for each type of account for future withdrawals. People calculated that, as of Sept. 3, the transfer of their cash deposits to Sberbank, will result in a 30 percent loss in value.
On Friday, a central bank official was quoted as saying that individual depositors at the six banks could ask for their accounts to be unfrozen. The central bank ordered a freeze on operations this week, to allow depositors to transfer their accounts to Sberbank, if they wished, and have their accounts guaranteed. The transfers were scheduled to take place from Sept. 7-26. See also Segodnya and Novye Izvestiya.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:12 - ID#206235)
.......No Market crash next week.....
But I don't much like the prospects for October 27! Here's the thing though as far as September.

* New IMF deals will be announced ( even though they lose credibility with each new deal )

* Clitton has now "apologized" ( What sincerity....when forced by politics and your own defecting DEmocrat pals, use the words grudgingly )

* Lot's of money on the sidelines looking for a "buy" opportunity.

* Margin calls covering sales are pretty much over.

* Latest economic numbers were strong.

* FED / AG will make noises about lowering rates, market will lap this up ( temporarily )

Last, but most importantly, Puetz predicts this coming week as the crash! Given his near flawless record of bad calls, even a DOW bear market, is sure to end next week higher than it began, given Puetz's Full Moon / Lunar eclipse arket crash call, set to begin Tuesday.

Long term players, stay away. Traders, make a short term play!

All.....get some Gold, I did today ( just a small order of AE's and also 10 "Saints" perrinial favorites, and NO , the dealer wasn't out of stock, though they mentioned higher than normal sales )


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:12 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Oldman -- Thanks for droppin' in. Always good to hear IT from you. Check in often.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:14 - ID#190411)
Your idea of lending to borrowers that have a good chance of repaying is "way old banking".
I had a conversation with the business banker that we deal with. I am always concerned with the stability of the financial institutions that I deal with. I asked him about non-performing loans. He said that the regulators were looking at the bank, because there was such an abnormally low volume of deadbeats.
They were worried about the added cost associated with government mandated loans to deadbeats. In other words, they took on sub-marginal loans to avoid the appearance of "discrimination". This is the way that politically connected "disadvantaged" types get so wealthy.
So, add to mozel's list:
4. Threat of gommint sponsored lawsuits.

See: Fleet Financial, as an example.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:15 - ID#370236)
tolerant1 - a large bow to the divine in you
And a double gulp of blue agave, nothing around to puff on.

All: Don't think he'll resign, Hillary won't permit it. If he does...

Gore has even less of whatever Bill's got. Where's Bab's Streisand and

all the Hollywood lib's??? Vacationing with Jim Carville-the reptile.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:16 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Oldman -- PS: Willing to name any gold stocks you have a good feeling on, or those you don't?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:18 - ID#413273)
Boys at FR on the is Greenspan Speech ...Honest

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:18 - ID#187109)
Private Investor - Why would ANYONE want to trade those stocks? Isn't there a possibility that they could be OUT-O-BIZ before this Gold thingy plays out? I am being serious here......

And if the DOW takes a crap won't they take a REAL crap? await a reply from ANYONE

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:19 - ID#173274)
@the scene
ERLE -- Seems like the Gobmint ought to be providin' those loans if it makes them feel more 'seeeecure'. 'Course, this IS now jack-boot country.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:21 - ID#254321)
Good advice!
Oldman: Thanks -- if gold bullion confirms the gold equity rally, and moves out of the two year bear channel, we have ourselves a long term gold rally on our hands, barring the effects of a full-blown market crash. But once the rally starts, even a crash will not finish it off completely, though it may begin anew at a lower level.

I would infer from your post that if bullion does not confirm the gold equities rally in a few weeks, that it would be a good idea to bail out and wait for the next equity rally.

I would have put more cash on the line had I not been concerned for another market meltdown very soon -- that thought may not be so crazy given the plummeting behaviour of the Mexican markets. The freezing of all loan activity in Mexico this afternoon is bound to be traumatic to the World's equity markets next week.

If WJC's fortunes take a significant turn for the worse, gold is sure to go up. Looking very likely.

Right now I am mostly on the outside looking in, except for some PAASF stock, some energy mutual funds, a small amount of Mexican index puts, ABX calls, and SP-500 puts. Only the Mexican index puts have been profitable so far -- 350% up. The options are funny money only.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:22 - ID#153110)
@ERLE Upon reflection, I owe an apology to witch doctors and rain dancers.
Greenspan admitted that economists are nothing more than academic barkers for the credit carnival.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:23 - ID#370236)
Love Stinks, Gold equalizes.
The bottom line measure of value and scarcity.

Fascinating to witness history in the making as fiat currency endures
the acid test worldwide. Especially here at kitgo-gold.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:25 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- HAR!!! Had to come out sometime from someone!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:27 - ID#410194)
Important week ahead?
Puetz, you mentioned yesterday ( 12:01 ) that a lunar-eclipse arrives this week-end and it will create super-large drops in the Dow Jones next week and the week after.

Can you tell us how stronger of an indication a "lunar-eclipse" can be compared to "halloweens" and "full moons"?

I'm asking because last year, your full-moon and halloween signals of a huge market crash never materialized, instead the opposite almost always happened: the markets went up. ( Check the charts )

So how can it be different with a lunar-eclipse this time?

Thanks for looking into this.

Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 23:46
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
I reiterate my forecast from a week-and-a-half ago: The panic-phase of a stock market crash began about October 15th. While the actual high occurred on August 5th, the 10 weeks between August 5th and October 15th were part of a 10-week topping process.

Six weeks are the norm before a crash. But in the year 1720, it took the South Sea Bubble 10 weeks to complete its top. That appears to have been repeated in 1997. Virtually all stock markets around the world began to dive within days ( some before, some after ) of the October 15th full moon.

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

That's why October 31st is a good guess for the climax. In any case, the upcoming week should be devastating for stocks. A drop of 2000 to 4000 points should not be unexpected.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:28 - ID#29048)
EB .... GSR
has about a years worth of cash and this week demonstrated a tradeable range of 25% allowing for the spread. It's volume is better than RANGY. But we are still comparing dogs, each with a million fleas, yes?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:29 - ID#39857)
if as Henry Miller says "there is nothing wrong with the world,
whats wrong is our way of looking at it.", then who is looking
at it it the wrong way. Please find them for me and they
can also go with the first wave.
gulp and a puff back to you
oh yeah Boris,Boris,Boris what have you done?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:31 - ID#266105)

Thoughta goin fishin' down dogwood slough
dadgum dogcome jes'us two
threw a worm onna hook at a crook inna brook
casting swirls 'fore pine gonna catch me a few.

Thoughta goin huntin back black spruce bog...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:33 - ID#370236)
Clinton goes to Russia. South American currency conference. Rubin & AG
to SanFran to sooth us & meet with Japan finance minister. Minister who
before leaving Japan says he's not going to ask for US interest rate cut
Which is exactly what he's gonna do ( over dinner ) .

Mexico pissed off that Moody's treating them as they should?

Worldwide fiat money damage control? Yup.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:34 - ID#254321)
Gold stocks
EB: I cannot comment on specific stocks, but I do find it amazing that virtually everyone on Kitco has forgotten that only a few days ago the gold equities were going down faster than the regular equities. And -- RJ has alerted us that the gold shorts have considerable control on the upside, preventing a runaway gold rally. We also have AG's clear threat that a gold rally develops stronger than whatever he will accept, it will be crushed. He still has alot of gold at his fingertips.

So -- gold equities will blip up for a time. But -- they may very well go down again within a few weeks. And AG etal will step in very soon and prop up the US dollar -- short term. Can't let it fall to fast, or we risk 1987 all over again.

I wish I had your insight at seeing the swing of the bat -- I am new at this and still tend to look only where the ball went. By then what I see is often old news. I also tend to buy and hold options like stocks -- but I do have a day job to consider -- and -- that keeps body and spirit together.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:37 - ID#25257)
Sorry for the delay. Had to munch some scallops-marinara with the Fam.
Glad to know there's a Goldbug in my neighborhood. Tallahassee, Hmmmmm.
Hope you guys don't plan to win a Gator game for awhile. I figure about five years of blank slate. Hope this doesn't offend thee. Go Gold and Orange and Blue!


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:37 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Tantalus -- There is nothing new under the sun and there is nothing in politics/economics that happens by accident.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:40 - ID#153110)
@Eldorado Sorry I just can't get into your quandry over
credit contraction by other means than higher rates.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:40 - ID#25257)
@Dutchman, cont.
...and Garnet. Go Noles! Back to Tallahassee.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:45 - ID#254321)
Damage Control?
Lets see: Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Malasia, Thailand, Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico. We are expected to think that things are getting better again -- don't worry, be happy!

What is the damage control doing? Is this like telling everyone that their money in the bank is safe, when more and more banks all over the world are failing?

I still don't know how all of that defaulted debt from the SEAsia crisis is to be rolled over. No evidence that much of it has been paid back yet. And -- our current correction of 20% or so has been sigficant. Mexico has gone down more than 50% -- sure looks to me that the SEAsia damage control has done little to prevent the Asian contagion from infecting South America. And don't forget Russia. If we were talking about an infectious epidemic spreading from country to country, the damage control experts would be lynched.

Mike K
(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:45 - ID#153283)
Russia may not be such a big deal

Japan threatens military strike over missiles - Tokyo fears new launch;
North claims its a satellite


TOKYO, Sept. 4  In a startling break from decades of post-war caution,
Japan on Friday warned it would have the right to strike back at North Korea
if further missile launches threaten its territory. But North Korea, in the
latest twist in an incident that has north Asia on edge, claimed the launch
was actually a rocket that took its first-ever satellite into orbit.
Washington quickly dismissed the claim.

JAPANS DEFENSE MINISTER Fukushiro Nukaga said Tokyo still hoped for a
peaceful resolution to the crisis caused when North Korea fired a missile
over its territory, Japanese media reported on Friday.

Speaking at a news conference, he said on North Koreas firing of a
multi-stage ballistic missile that passed above Japans main island of
Honshu on Monday. He said that under a self-defense policy adopted in 1956,
Japan could strike back at another country if it was attacked by missiles,
the reports said.


North Korea, meanwhile, on Friday by claiming the missile was actually a
rocket that lifted North Koreas first satellite into orbit.

Our scientists and technicians have succeeded in the first artificial
satellite aboard a multistage rocket into orbit, KCNA said. The satellite
is now transmitting the melody of the immortal revolutionary hymns song of
General Kim Il Sung and Song of General Kim Jong Il and the Morse signals
Juche Korea in 27MHZ. Juche, or self-reliance, is North Koreas guiding

The Norths claim comes a day before the Marxist countrys newly elected
parliament was to elect leader Kim Jong Il as its head of state.


Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said he doubted the rocket carried a

If it was launched, I guess Japans technology could have already picked it
up, said Obuchi. What kind of satellite is it?

And the United States, which NBC News learned moved six strategic bombers to
Guam on Thursday after the launch, has rejected the new North Korean story.

Koreas divided nation

The first stage apparently splashed down in the Sea of Japan in an area
between Russian and Japanese territory. The other stages crossed over
Honshu and landed in the Pacific. Japan has said it has information North
Korea is poised to carry out a second test, possibly as early as
Saturday.The Russian Interfax news agency said the same thing, citing
Russian intelligence sources based in the Vladivostok region.


Whatever the rocket turns out to be, the fact that Japan raised the idea of
a military retaliation is a major development  one which could have
repercussions that outlast the concern over the missile launch.

Japans defense chief said it is the duty of the government to address the
North Korean missile test issue with diplomacy. In February 1956, a
Japanese Lower House committee passed a resolution saying that if Japan was
attacked with missiles by a foreign country it could launch a counterattack
against the missile base.

But Japan has taken great care not to raise fears among its neighbors of a
resurgent militarism of the kind that led Japanese armies in the 1930s and
1940s to invade and occupy much of the Far East, slaughtering millions along
the way.

Japans post-war constitution, drafted under the supervision of Japans U.S.
occupation government under Gen. Douglas McArthur, says its people
renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of
force as a means of settling international disputes.

That Japan would make such a statement publicly suggests the shock that the
missile test caused in Japan. North Korean missiles clearly can now reach
targets in any part of Japan, including U.S. military bases around the country.


As NBC News reported Thursday, the U.S. bombers sent to Guam were aimed at
easing the fears of the Japanese. A source told NBC News the power
demonstration was meant let North Korea know that the United States can
project substantial air power a long way on a moments notice.

The Korean peninsula A precarious military balance

The United States has ordered three B-2 Stealth bombers and three B-52
bombers to Guam in a deployment scheduled for 30 days. The bombers were
expected to conduct bombing runs on a test range on Guam beginning as early
as Friday.

This is only the second time the B-2s have been deployed outside the
continental United States on such a mission. The B-2s are being deployed
from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and the B-52s from Barksdale Air
Force Base in Louisiana.

In related news:

North Korea returned three sets of skeletal remains Friday believed to be
those of U.S. soldiers missing from the Korean War. U.N. honor guards
carried three gray metal coffins across the border in a simple, solemn
ceremony in Panmunjom, the truce village inside the demilitarized zone
separating the two Koreas.Dozens of U.S. and South Korean military officers
saluted the coffins, which were draped in a light blue U.N. flag. After a
prayer by a U.S. military chaplain, the remains were flown to the U.S.
Armys Central Identification Laboratory in Hawaii for forensic tests and

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:47 - ID#153110)
@$ Peak
Oldman says the Mighty $ has fallen.
The yen is stronger, but the Japanese banks are failing.
What happened ? When ? Why ? Where ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:48 - ID#411233)
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights!
Well the liquor was spilled on the bar room floor,
And the bar was closed for the night.
A little brown mouse came out of his hole,
and danced in the pale moonlight.
Well he licked up the liquor on the bar room floor,
and back on his haunches he sat.
And all night long he was singing a song,
bring on the GD cat.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:52 - ID#215235)
I am a Noles hater. Actually, I should hate the Gators, too. I am a Penn State graduate and a big fan of JoePa. We play Southern Mississippi tomorrow. I am stoked. Glad to be in your neighborhood. Let's keep in touch. You can contact me via e-mail at Go Blue & White. May the Gator stomp the mentally retarded Noles. Amen.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:55 - ID#370236)
Mexico: the 30+ ruling families that own all the wealth
They know that DC will always bail them out, and will play that trump card to the hilt, EVERYTIME, until this charade is finally ended.

But it won't, 'cause Wall Street will then TANK, and they know it.

What does it mean, GOTCHA BY THE HUEVOS?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:56 - ID#215235)
You seem to know a lot about SSC. I would like to talk about this stock more if you have the time and interest. You can reach me at Seems to me this may be a good time to load up on silver stocks. Thanks.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 21:56 - ID#254321)
Speaking of damage control ---
All: Have you noticed how the Brazilian currency has been actively devalued in a controlled stepwise fashion for months? Brazil has been a model country guided by our US economic gurus. Sorry to say it is not looking good regardless. I wonder -- just how much American wealth is in South America? I think it is signifiant. Just thinking -- just how will a 50% drop in the South American equities market show up on the profit/loss sheets of American firms? And Mexico crashed only 4 years ago -- clearly the underlying cause of the crash was never fixed.

All of a sudden US - only firms may start looking better than US international firms, unless the US international firms are very nimbly managed.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:00 - ID#430212)
Gold Stocks......
I think we should all be patient and await gold to have firmly closed at or above $295.00 for a prolonged period of time before diving in and 2'nd mortgaging our home on gold investments ( paper or real )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:03 - ID#266105)

Matter into matters bye its good & gone
maddened into madder spurred moment into dawn
Hi-speed chase down deadend alley/crawling in the bog
Coosbay organ kafkaesque horn casting coasts 'neath the fog.

Don't want much from it no just an easy yawn
Mercy's mirror is missing took where giving has all gone
No sooner once begins ( hey Bartender ) clock spins its broken cog
Coosbay organ, kafkaesque casting coasts beneath the fog.

Echoing stardust twinkly eyes skies deep caverns borne in tides
Diary of songs past sung bobbing on the sea of sighs
Surf crashes onto shores of refuse; here's the abandoned log
Coosbay organ kafkaesque horn casting coasts beneath the fog.

Back to the floors.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:05 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- I'm sure nothing in regard to the banks, themselves, have changed. Only that for a 'moment or two', an 'intervention' is occurring. I wouldn't get TOO concerned over the dollar unless a good semblance of a retest of highs, or such, occurred, and failed. Same token, I wouldn't yet get too excited anymore over the yen until a decent and succesful correction in it occurred. That much said, it also explains why so many are looking for the same to occur in the metals before they get excited.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:08 - ID#288399)
Bloomberg business comment today
This evening on Bloomberg radio, heard an intro something like, "Are you, the investor, worried about the Asian/Russian problem?" Well, how long till they add, "and South America" to that mouthful? When will it be called what it's always been: GLOBAL.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:09 - ID#254321)
Upping the Ante?
All: Could it be that North Korea and Iraq have the same idea? Namely that the US is paralyzed with xxxGate, and they can move around with impunity. And -- WJC is probably looking for a fight. That may be why that US inspector of Iraq has been held back to the point he resigned. How can Saddam be a threat to be punished, unless he is allowed to rearm?

The North Korean situation is less obvious, but I doubt that our military would be able to handle North Korea and Iraq at the same time, given the current lack of support by ( and lack of skill of ) the current administration. You don't fight wars just to get votes at home -- that may be a quick ticket to creating something that makes the risk of war even greater.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:15 - ID#190411)
for you Y2k buffs, and higher IMF financiers.
Today at our place of bidness, I was taken aback upon seeing a man being chased into our plant by another man wielding a brick. The chaser smashed the chasee with a well placed skullbreaker. Luckily the recipient of the attentions of the gent that wanted his money back, got only a concussion.
I first picked up a lead hammer to cleave the skull of the attacker, but thought better of it, and ran to my trusty 8 MM Mauser. ( about 80 USD ) . ( ammo about 150. USD/1000 rounds ) . The attacker backed off onto the sidewalk, and informed me that I couldn't shoot him as he was off my propity.
If Y2K is anything resembling this preview, you had better get your physical gold, a plan of self-support, and a way out of the city.
Here's an idea. Rent a getaway place in a resort area that is self sufficient. Say, a fish camp in Canada, that has no winter trade.
Anyway, it's far worse than I say,.......GOT PORTABLE WEALTH?

RJ, do you see the increasing premium on junk silver that I told you was going to happen.

Squirrel, I just got the "History of Civilisation" volumes 1-7 for the cost of nothing. A library was ditching them for more shelf space because they have had low readership for the past several years.
Some are still in dustjackets.
I have to visit more library sales.
BTW, they were .25 ea, and no takers.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:31 - ID#430260)
Huevos are eggs but it is slang for something WJC doesn't have. --AG

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:31 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

Fidelity Select Gold UP almost 30% in four days!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:31 - ID#190411)
$US down, yen up; is gold tied to these?
Everyday in a new way, I will absorb all that the system has to say.
I have yet to see the logic of the puffery of the manipulators.

Hitachi is on the brink,
Banks collapsing, etc.,
Rats in a burning building with no exit.

My only prediction, other than messing around with ROR, was to short BKX. ( bank stock index )
I wish I knew how.
I do have an SP500 leap that is in the money, and the rats are bidding it up each day.

It seems that a few more each day realise that gold is money.
Just wait until they realise what their property right is vis a vis the bank.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:31 - ID#173274)
@the scene
ERLE -- I, for one, hear you. What'll probably be coming down is no laughing matter. It behooves everyone to do a lot of CYA ( Cover Your ASSets ) ! Unfortunately, probably not more than a couple percentage of the population will do so, and thus the rest will cause at LEAST half the problem. Then, of course, they'll become the willing toadies of the jack-boots as they'll feed them. Slaves.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:33 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- No problem. Just an academic type of question anyway.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:37 - ID#190411)
g'night gents and the beatiful ladies.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:39 - ID#317193)
F* you are now "published"...
WOW...hows your head? Take care...we watch is new gold market together. Yes? A sad time for the world. Gold is a currency, not an investment. Times, they are a changen'.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:42 - ID#411233)
2BR02B'S Poems are much better than mine.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:42 - ID#432221)
I was told that a guy could remove his savings from his 401k account

and had 180 days to roll it over into an IRA with no tax penalty.
I know there are some IRA management firms that trade in gold stocks.
Would someone please enlighten me as to the laws regarding the 401k to IRA rollover?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:44 - ID#183109)
EZ Believer @ RANGY question...
With production predicted at $210 within the next two months, at 700KG per month, why would you be concerned about working capital? At any rate, here's some more buffer for ya:

Flack stresses the key is that the group has the financial resources to bring both Syama and Crown through to full, profitable operations.

"Syama needed US$31m this year to complete its capital expansion at a gold price of $290/oz and, following the IFC funding arrangements, $68m is available to us," he says.
They also have JV's apparently eager to buy out certain projects, thus giving RR more cash to concentrate on the "big" finds like Morila, Loulo, Tongon, etc.

Also, they are planning a rights issue this November to raise another $35 Million, of which 20 Million worth will go to RANGY. Hope this answers your concern....certainly a very valid one.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:46 - ID#373284)
Tantalus, Namaste' and a gulp and puff to ya...
Now to the matter at hand...this ain't Mena and the United States military is not Clintler's personal group of thugs to do his bidding. This jack's ass has pissed of Islam...wants to attack Iraq and is sending bombers into Asia as a precursor to striking N. Korea...

Get Clintler the hell out of the Our/White House or the world will burst into flames...he is seen as a weak...ineffectual...sc_mbag ( not that I disagree ) by the world and especially our enemies...

Forget the media in the USA...they are by and large...useless...less than useless...fellatio and stains on a dress ain't the problem people...every second that Clintler is in Our/White House we are getting closer to war...destruction and those things usually lead to a tremendous loss of life...

Oh yeah...Hope you all have a great Holiday weekend...and don't forget...hoist a cold whatever and just take the time to remember what the hell the Holiday is all about...

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
ERLE -- what I find interesting is that bonds up AND gold up!!! We shall see if this is a very temporary abberation. I think we now see if bonds go up, dollar goes up, stock market goes up AND gold goes up. Should that, or something on that order occur, then I will surely concur with RJ that the bottom for gold be in, as it will show that the interest in safety/alternatives is clearly at hand.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Grant -- Just to let you know that someone around this quiet Holiday partaking joint is here and responding, I'll have to say that I do not personally know. Haven't partaken in those 'rituals' thus do not know how to get out/transfer them. But I'm sure someone about this joint can/will help. Just keep asking 'till someone helps. Enjoy....

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:54 - ID#153110)
@These Days
"Because gold mines are the "unique" circumstance in world of investments, their owners will suffer a "unique" problem of definingwhat they really own!" Where there is no land held by allodial title, is there is any allodial gold ? Where are the freemen ? Where are the men who will own the gold they find and mine ? Where is Natty Bumpo ? Where is the land to bequeth to our posterity ? We are landless people in our own land of birth, and soon many will be houseless as well as landless. But, thy tax home shalt thy have always with thee. How low have we been brought ! Lo, the pitiful, pathetic American whose forefathers once looked on a world of peons, peasants, and coolies with compassion is brought down to their level of landless subsistence and impoverishment by taxation. And for our land we have received endless, unpayable debt and the legal right to be perverts governed by perverts. Yes, there is everything in America but shame.

We are entering a period of strange days, my friends. There will be a time during which there is no official POG in any currency. It requires no great feat of thinking to foresee the coincidence of the disruption of the world by Y2K and of the disruption from the chageover to another world reserve currency can easily coincide. The one is a kind of extra cover for the other. Can one not see the Euro timetable in a new light ?

Runaway. Runaway. Runaway. There is no place to hide. Wherever you conceal thyself in self-deception, you will emerge from merely again to grovel.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:55 - ID#413109)
Dance @ your wedding!!!
Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 13:59
Gold Dancer ( DROOY and my girl friend ) ID#430221:
I showed the chart of DROOY last night to my girlfriend who
already owns a bunch and she says "Tomorrow buy me 5000 more."
So I did at 2 7/32. This woman has balls. She also go rid of most
of the rest of her mutual funds a few days ago on the snap-
back ralley.

I think I am going to have to marry this woman!!!!

What do you guys think? Does she pass muster?

Thanks, GD

Hope you have other reasons to get married, and then there's always her side- GOOD LUCK and she can
sure pick 'em, just look at the chart.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:56 - ID#230235)
taxable event : removing funds from an ira
If you change jobs and your former employer gives you your IRA
money that is a taxable event, immediately. To avoid this the
IRA must be handled by your employer, ie rolled over to an
acceptable product, like gold stocks. Small companies may not
know about this but human resource dept. of large companies
understand this. I would imagine a 401k would be similar, unless
you are 59 1/2 if you take the money for any amount of time you
pay the tax.!!

Congress was well aware of the money they expected to take in
the first year the tax law was passed two or three years ago and
budgeted for the increase in revenue and the gradual down turn
as the law became known.

Just another example of your friends in DC looking out for your
best interests. They are there to help. Cheers.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:57 - ID#300202)
@CTV Late News
Announced new developments on Peggy's Cove ( N.S. ) flight-Swiss Air.
Saudi Crown Prince aboard. There was no further commentary.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:58 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Perhaps that is the reason God created lead; to help rectify lousy situations!!! Think it might one day be worth more than gold?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 22:59 - ID#432221)
Eldorado, appreciate, ,,,,,,,,, I cannot imagine more interesting times

in which to exist. WWII might come close.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:03 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Grant -- 'Better times' perhaps, but not 'more interesting' times. AGREE.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:04 - ID#432221)
EZAU, interesting info, wonder if IRA to 401k = 401k to IRA ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:06 - ID#25257)
JoePa is one of my favorite stalwarts. He and the Gator Coach go way back. It's good to find a Tallahassee man who's politically incorrect. I've been a Gator since '61--the year the Noles came close, tied 3-to-3.
I was in the South Endzone with my Highschool English teacher: The Goals came down...much blood and carnage. I'll see your e-mail.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:09 - ID#255151)

Try Not
sure if this will answer specific question. I am sure if you call the investment or retirement planning division of your bank, they could give you answers.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:09 - ID#153110)
IRA to 401K to Roth to Social Security to PROMISES, PROMISES. Believe thee a new truth from the old liar ? A fool and his money. A fool and his freedom. Are parted.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:10 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Grant -- Perhaps I'm mistaken but I do not think one may take the 401K stuff and put it into an IRA unless one changes jobs. ANYONE?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:10 - ID#222231)
Farfel, wish you the best!
IMO, Bart let you get trashed too long by the schizo, while at first you replied courteously and he ( they ) ( them ) ( some ) ? flailed at you relentlessly. If I had taken the beating you took I would have probably done worse. The schizo should have been 404'd long before you. Not only did K1 lose you, they lost ANOTHER because of their crassness, and yet Bart allows him ( them ) ( those ) ? sickos to post on K1.


GOOD LUCK my friend!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:11 - ID#432221)
Eldorado, times are nice for now, next month, who knows.
There has never been so much technical and social change in human society since FIRE. Make no mistake. youve got a ringside seat to profound global developments.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:13 - ID#346209)
OK. Where do I put my money ( wealth as I know it ) ? Thanks

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:13 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Sure damnably glad that someone here expresses me better than I know how to myself!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:14 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Grant -- It will not be enjoyable!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:14 - ID#153110)
Was the Saudi named ?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:14 - ID#252286)
You don't know what you are talking about. How about some cut and paste?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:17 - ID#153110)
Arms & Gold Coin and Means of Subsistence such as wheat, water, and the like.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:18 - ID#255151)
Reify--Wedding Bash!

Why not have the Kitco bash at Gold Dancer's wedding? I am sure the families wouldn't mind a mob of drunken Gold bugs there. Might have to change the vows a little bit--"Do you take this woman, in bull markets and bears..."etc.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:18 - ID#317193)
mozel..@22;54...I'm begining to got it!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:19 - ID#261155)
@ mozel
maybe this why the Romans paid their soldiers in salt....instead of gold....they could barter the salt readily to those wishing to preserve food... and for centuries the Chinees and Mongols met traders at the borders and relieved of their metals and gave them script to trade with....I think their were/was few times the common man has/had made use of gold for trade....barter goods seldom if at all

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:20 - ID#300202)
Not named. 1/2 hr prior-had announced typically LATE BREAKING NEWS ( Hype ) -
later just simply stated Saudi Crown Prince-No names attached hereto.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:20 - ID#432221)
Eldorado, prepare thyself,and make the best of what comes, you have no control

of that which you cannot see.

Bully Beef
(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:21 - ID#259282)
Ryo was up 14% today. If that ain't bullish for gold after all the bad press they have had... WHAT
IS? Imagine the money? Show me the money! There is optimism out there . Will it fizzle?Watch RYO not because I think it is a good investment but because it is a cynical, opportunist, investment taking advantage of all kinds of unfocused gratuitous gold buggery.If RYO is going up consistantly we is in a gold boom ...rush etc.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:23 - ID#230235)
irs tax help wed site
I haven't tried this site since last tax season but one can try

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:23 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- As much as I'd 'hate' to stop polishing my bullets, coins and cans, and have to start using them, I do think those times are unfortunately very close upon us.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:24 - ID#261155)
have you even proposed?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:25 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Grant -- Ah, but I DO have control of that which I have in my sights!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:27 - ID#300202)
@Sorry-Name was Announced!
Wife heard name of Saudi Prince. Can't remember name. NAME WAS ANNOUNCED.


(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:29 - ID#230235)
opps; sorry I skipped a word on the tax url
For tax help try this ( if I don't skip something )

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:30 - ID#39857)
press hesitant about it calling it a hit on UN, oh my

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:31 - ID#432221)
Eldorado,,,,, yes,,,, a 168gr BTHP at 2750 fps from an accurized M1A

will definately project your opinions to 800 yds or better.
Proper equipment may make all the difference

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:32 - ID#401460)
Gold Stocks

While thinking about buying some of these cheap Gold stocks, I realized that the commission is going to be more per share than the cost of the stock.

Why are people trading/buying PSGQF ?


(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:33 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Reify -- It should make it up to 4 and then 7 if any good. Caution if either target is not made!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:34 - ID#252286)
F son
You keep up the bad words, we go back to the old days, yes?
You never learn, do you? Welcome my son. Welcome to the machine.
Is alright, I've known were you've been. Time for you to pick up the phone? Limit up, sonny, limit up. "Harharharharharhar".

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:35 - ID#227238)
Mozel @22:54:
Truly a morose commentary. If we are able to disassociate from the banker, our home remains in jeopardy to the tax collector.

It's a continuing source of concern as the denouement progresses. They will truly pick every pocket until the only thing left is seizure of the property for back taxes. At which point the banks and others close to the govt will pick it up for pennies on the dollar.

Wish I knew how to handle that one.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:35 - ID#43349)
Prince Bandar Bin Saud Bin Saad Abdul Rahman Al-Saud

EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:39 - ID#173262)
Polarbear.... SSRIF, TVX, RANGY
Good work! Gold prices as they are; cash flow is not something I am used to spending much time on with juniors these days. Your analysis seems thorough and right on the money. Couldn't stand it this afternoon even when I posted my liquid assets comment. Put in a limit order for 6000 shares at 21/32 fifteen minutes before the bell and picked up half the order before it jumped to 3/4. Your efforts are appreciated.

Looks like we were both right on the money with SSRIF. Smiling all the way to the bank ( later and higher, of course ) !

Just wish I would have grabbed a bunch of TVX. Almost pulled the trigger but I got too cute trying to catch it a little lower. So far it looks the strongest of the three on a short term basis. Particularly because of where it is traded. A shift in the public sentiment is right around the corner and this one on the NYSE will get a lot of attention. If it dipps again I will be on it.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:40 - ID#173274)
@the scene
grant -- Yes. But it would be much better if S__T does not go ANYWHERE near that far to have to resort to lead though. I fear though that those probabilities are near extinct. I'm not unprepared for possibilities/eventualities.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Earl -- As I said, God created lead for a purpose.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:43 - ID#252286)
shhhhhhh don't tell anyone
F spot it Steve Puetz

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:43 - ID#43349)
In the case of North Korea they may have an ulterior financial motive:

N. KOREA: Exported $580 mln in missiles to Mideast up to 1992
N. KOREA: Demands cash to suspend missile development to Mideast

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:46 - ID#227238)
Since Mozel opened the subsistence thread, I'd like to report that as of this evening, I have a fully functional grain/flour grinder. Operational and ready to kick some ass. After several different trials, I finally came up with motorized drive for the darn thing.

For those just itching to return to the simpler ways, be warned that it ain't always what it's cracked up to be. If forced to hand grind a pound of flour per day, one could easily forego the health club subscription. Such is the effort required. ...... Nonetheless, so long as there is electricity, I am in fat city. When the electricity goes off, I will resort to a storage battery and inverter. ..... Or a longer crank. .... Or hungry grandchildren.

It is worth the effort, regardless of other considerations. There is nothing like using fresh flour.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:48 - ID#266105)
rumpled/loon dance

Hey, I like a Robert Service.

Fog pressed down I rose alone
Too dark to see then heard the moan
There they were beneath the fog
Just joining out beyond the log.

Loons encircling, crying
Withering wails let flying
Unwordly calls past dying
This they do no lying.

Campmate arises, now its come dawn
The loons a-calling then they were gone.
Were they there? Dancing for me?
Loons cry crazed from fog then flee.

Ol' Joe Bashu said it was luck to've seen
The loon dance of dead when June's all of green.
Said it real plain, strange as Strong Lake
He'd something to give yet nothing to take.

There is no more unearthly song
Than a northwoods tune of winter's long.
Sent me a note a while ago;
Funny thing is he's dead Ol' Joe.

"Wish to warn wisely let alone twice true."
He'd seen'm dance that's how I knew.
See, the wind let the loons get poor Joe to agree;
Now a song chases secrets best left to be.

When did I hear, indian know
Loons cry crazed to the Windigo
It whispers-- "Come. Burn your feet."
I should've run but kept my seat
Think I'm foolin' well it's true-
I turned and met the Manitou.

As the end of the wind, the silent fear
He howls-- But Once!; yet the howl stays here.
So when loons come calling, let them be
One trebled twice then spoke in three.
Now I just fade away where the echoes flew
Calling Ol' Joe for a dance we do.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:50 - ID#227238)
Coincidentally, I also laid in some extra caps as well. So, for the day; the count is brass, grains and gold. More of each .... and they are so inexpensive right now. Now it's time to get really serious.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:52 - ID#202123)
protection of life, food and gold
I live in a city of 40000 and have acess to open/sparsely populated areas. Would a Winchester Defender ( 12ga shotgun, 7shot tube ) be sufficient firepower. Just looking for opinions and thoughts.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:57 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Earl -- Exactly! Can't EVER be TOO prepared! S__t always comes down a LOT harder than is expected! And sometimes for a LOT longer! Better a year early than even ONE day late!!! If we could time anyting to happen precisely, we could time when our wives would actually be ready to go out ( or just ready to go! ) ! That'll be the day!

EZ Believer
(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:58 - ID#173262)
Pleasent thoughts after a good day

Had to look one more time. Can't believe My screen....every last one is up. Good night fellow kitco fans.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:58 - ID#344225)
@ OLDMAN RE; Your 21:06
I believe that you are sincere.

I believe that you are honest and knowledgeable.

AND I believe that you are absolutely RIGHT !

All who wait to buy will push my stock purchases

GO GOLD....This is it.

Many countrys who have devalued and suffered
the resulting INFLATION now know the secret.

You got to back that paper crap that you print
with hard currencies that are backed by gold,
or GOLD it's self. The lesson has been learned.

If the DOLLAR does not go down, there will be no
NWO and neither will there be a global economy.

The cat ( gold ) is out of the bag, and even AG
will not be able to put it back.

This has been a hard year. But tonight I will
sleep much better with my AU stocks up 20-25%.


RYO was very good to me during the last Bull run.
It paid for a very nice 34 foot diesal motor home
with everything needed to survive for many months
in the deep National Forests of Colorado &
Wyoming. I hope the computer chips in that thing
is Y2K compliant.

GO GOLD...DO YOUR THING. Save the fiat currencies
of this world.

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:58 - ID#259284)
Do it Yourself Lease Rates
To Rhody et al: I'll be putting up this Tuesday's lease rates to keep the page somewhat updated. Once we've got our new system in place the lease rate page will update reliably every day. In the meantime If you want a rough estimate of the lease rates at anytime this formula will do the trick:

Lease Rate = L - [ ( ( F-S ) /n ) *365] / S

L = Libor rate ( which is about 5.5% and stable so you would use .055 )
F = Most active futures contract price
S = Current day's spot price
n = number of days between the current day and first notice day of the contract used to determine F.

Think of libor as the prime rate for $USD. Since lease rates are a function of libor, a lease rate change may be brought about by a shift in interest rates, and not necessarily by a changed demand for physical gold.

To Vronsky: It's time once again to consider cutting out the plugs. Our discussion group is going to be a main menu item on our new site and so they'll be more people coming to visit. The "...delete the "en" in golden-eagle...." thingy looks out of character. It makes it seem like we're having web site computer problems. Which of course will be all gone by the time the new site comes online. If you'll refrain from posting the gold--eagle URL I can have "en" bug fixed so that at least others can.

(Fri Sep 04 1998 23:59 - ID#153110)
You have no place to live free when you have no land unbeholden. They can not only eject you from it for unpaid feudal fee, but for any other default of obligation that they may lay on it or on you. They may regulate what they own in any fashion they please, as may any landlord.

They speak openly now of government by martial law, which is no law but rule by the whim of men. But, they have been practicing it for quite a time. Our House is open to the rain and the wind and the boot.

The illusion of our security will disappear with the suddenness of waking from a dream.