Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

(Fri Sep 04 1998 00:59 - ID#411259)

..... Multiple Replies .....

Robnoel -
I have no historical figures for other currencies, but since gold is traded internationally in US dollars, we must speak in those terms. To speak in other terms is to speak of currency trading - one for the other. This is an entirely different approach, and one which brings the relative worth of evil fiat currencies into play. I dont think this would do anything but muddy the waters and is of no real benefit of discovering the value of gold. Either we are talking about the value of gold, or we are talking about trading yen for dollars, they are two separate thingies.

T1 -
For those many centuries you speak of, commodities did not rise. Until efficient irrigation and mass farming were achieved, efforts went towards survival. Isolated cultures had to fend for themselves. Most societies were agrarian in nature. Some commodities would be scarcer than others at certain times, but the average value of the commodities did not change. Gold also did not change. For evidence of this, look at Barts historical London fix prices. Comparing an unchanging price of gold to an unchanging price of other commodities is disingenuous and teaches us nothing about the true value of gold, other than X amount of gold has always bought X amount of food which, if plotted on a graph of centuries, would be flat as the Kansas Plains.

Mr. Young -
I would be happy to discuss history with you any time. History has proven that my above arguments are true. If you dispute this, please offer evidence, numbers, anything but just because you say it is so. I am supporting my views with Gods own numbers. If there is another valid way to view this, I would love to hear it. Perhaps you could tell me the value of gold from 1000 years ago? Do you even know? How about 3000 years? And how are you defining that value? In some currency of the time which no longer exists? ( Oooooooooh, Theres an open door folks, lets see who runs with that ) . Do you define the value by what it can be exchanged for? If not, how else would you place a value? How much land did gold buy a millennium ago? How much food could a nugget buy? How many nuggets made a proper dowry? If you do the numbers you will find, that the value of gold is as consistent and stable at the value of bread. Of the two, on a hungry eve, Ill take the latter. Oh yeah, since you sign your name at the end of your posts, I assumed that is how you would like to be called. Tis a common enough mistake, and I am a common enough fellow, so no offense. I am going to stop all communication with you now and for all time. I find no use in your addled messages and obvious hostility. Continue if you must, but do it on your own.

OK?

Lurky -
Damn right, gold will rise!
Others, apparently, are typing on their keyboards
On stone tables within their mudden huts
Before they take the oxen in the fields

All this instant info available to all of us
Has not made some wake up
To smell the millennium
Keep it up

Yes

Charles Keeling -

You are mistaken.
I spoke of buying gold and holding gold.
The physical metal. The shiny stuff.
I never once spoke of mining shares
I congratulate you on your trades
And I congratulate you for making my point
You made money because you bought and sold
This is what I do for a living, buy and sell gold

Your post was also very hostile
Yet we have never exchanged words
What is it that makes you so angry?
I am painting colors on nobody
I am simply looking at inanimate numbers to find what lies within
I do not make the numbers up, I simply do the math
If you have never done so, but instead, swallowed the platitudes whole
Perhaps this is a worthwhile exercise, yes?

If you are angry, it is not at me
Maybe you should read some of my prior posts
I am telling people they can now do away with
20 years of pain and loss of holding gold
Buy it here, and buy it today
For today is a good day to buy
How does this disagree with you?
Again, I dont get it

Sigh

John B -
Word on the trading floor is that funds and producers will sell above 288. This is OK, they will buy it back about 10 lower. There is no interest in getting big time short in this market, but there is no real danger of a runaway bull. In this type of market, the bears are always in charge, but only for $10 or so, then the bulls step in for $12 or so on the upside, then comes the bears again. This is what I expect for the rest of the year. Im delivering gold when I can get it into people hands below $300. This is a good thing. Thanks for your kind comments.

Arden -
Next time you see that bear, walk right up and bid it move aside.
The bear will comply, for you will have noble luster in your eyes
And bears fear this, and fear that their short term trades do not allow time
To fold up the tent and pack up the goodies before it starts to rain
I would like to hear more of these mines and these mining ways, yes?

Gollum -
I like the "store of labor" angle. How would we check the numbers?
Also, gold MAY melt in a fire and I had a client once who lost gold in a flood.
True indeedy, it does not rot, but all we consume to stay alive does.
Value may not be found in a things perishable nature, but rather
How important is this thing at this moment? Which will allow me to continue?
The relative value of all things change as levels of survival ebb and flow

Im Hungry

HighRise

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:00 - ID#401460)

Reno may appoint another independent council to investigate illegal campaign financing that everyone knows occured - she may now have proof? Dick Morris may be the smoking gun.

This puts the VP at risk!

What a time for the US to have a double impeachment, it will certainly add to the market termoil.

The Democrats are now speaking out.

So far, Pennsylvania Rep. Paul McHale is the only congressional Democrat to call for Clinton's resignation.

Now, another, Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, says Clinton should ``choose an honorable course and do what is right for our nation.''

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a moderate Democrat from Connecticut, harshly rebuked President Clinton Thursday for his ``immoral'' behavior in the Monica Lewinsky scandal, opening the door for a new wave of criticism of the president from within his own party.

New York Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan immediately praised Lieberman for saying ``what needed to be said.''

Nebraska Democrat Bob Kerrey shared Lieberman's view that a White House affair is not simply a private matter and echoed Lieberman's call for Clinton ``to go far further than what he did `` in his August 17 speech to the nation confessing his relationship with Lewinsky.

John F. Kenedy Jr. was on Leno tonight.
Is he waiting in the wings or is he just appearing to put more pressure on Clinton & the Gang?

Good Night All

HighRise

Dave in CO

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:04 - ID#229141)

@Charles Keeling 23:04

In addition, the economic numbers coming out of this administration are always good for a laugh. You can depend on whatever number is needed to keep the bubble going. An economist took a close look at a recent employment number and found that there were several increments posted of exactly 250,000. The odds were many millions to 1 against that employment number being an honest number. His analysis was written up, I believe, in the N.Y. Post.

Here's hoping that WJBC's destiny will be determined in the next week or 2 and that a modicum of honesty will return to the markets.

Thanks for your post.

cherokee

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:07 - ID#288229)

@....last.barrage..

go to 825 west queen creek in chandler arizona 85249......and tell me what you read on all the local signage.......a new development called ocotillo springs.....look up the address on the internet......yessssssssss...
as far as smoking psychoactive substances........mmmmmm......in order to see things others cannot see.....you must look places others never look....or cannot look.....or will not look.....however you get to this place...the vehicle....matters not.....if you must use this analogy to
to bolster your position...so be it. consider the implications....and
chop-asaki......1'st.

cherokee!;...riding.with.the.silver.surfer...ready......

Dave

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:08 - ID#261155)

@mozel, a man panning

hard all day might do a third of a yard of gravel....he might earn a 1/2 a DWT of gold for the fruits of his labors...and this has and is still the way it is in many a place ( flood gold ) and it has nothing to do with the past debts or future ones.....it is really just the way the ratio of gold to dirt... sets a living day wage of the labor of a man...and/or any labor of man and machine.... for any commodity produced upon the simple principle of a days labor=gold and gold=a days labor.
And when you have corrupted that simple valuation of the worth of gold/labor....through politics or whatever.... you have no gold standard.
Gold in itself was never the standard, but the labor spent in recovering it, proportionate to a value that meant earning a living wage...

AZAU

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:13 - ID#257253)

cherokee

You are not of Arizona.
Never have been.
Just so Kitco knows, this cherokee is not of AZ.
Having been here over 30 years, I can tell you he knows not.
or No's Knot, which ever you prefer.
Only cherokee's I know are in Oklahoma. Duh.
but we can still be friends. We have always welcomed the newcomers.

Lou Paquette

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:23 - ID#32080)

Dave what a fascinating theory!

Did you come up with that on your own, or read it somewhere?

I was thinking gold would need to drop well below the average cost of production these days to hit bottom, but the way you value an ounce of gold makes me wonder!

Tell me more, when do you think this will sink in and take effect?

By the way I've owned a placer claim and know exactly how much work goes into getting just one ounce of gold with human labour only and it's a lot. You are right all the easy stuff is long gone now.

mozel

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:24 - ID#153110)

@Dave

The ratio of gold per ton of dirt and the ratio of labor hours per ounce of gold are indeed the important ratios.

Now, if labor is assisted by machines, then the hours of labor stored in the machines must be added to the direct labor hours.

There are mine and panning sites where gold can still be extracted by manual labor alone. I was looking to an averaging view of labor and ounces at all mining sites.

AZAU

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:25 - ID#257253)

dave, and gold panning

You are correct. And here in AZ we panned gold in the depression days just to survive. I have panned the canyons myself nearby, and even n the replete ones, the gold yield depends largely on labor. Hours and hours of manual labor - moving the sand and extracting the placer.
What a great feeling it is, but in today's world, the average yield is a pittance compared with the old days where gold was $35 per OZ, but you
could survive in a deflationary time such as the Great Depression!

arden

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:29 - ID#257344)

standing up to the bear

RJ - I have no fear, until I saw the real BEAR. And then I did a little research and found out how naive I was. Now I REALLY FEAR THE BEAR!!!!

Yes I have a noble cause, and indeed I have suffered both the financial and physical beating of many on this forum. Now I know that the bear market in most financial assets is here. DO NOT FIGHT THE BEAR. It is not a small one, but a very large one and it eats everything, with respect for nothing or no one ....except...........it can not digest GOLD!!!!!!

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:30 - ID#411259)

..... More Replies.... Goodnight .....

Isure -
I appreciate your point, but when speaking of value, we must speak in constant time frames. The coins and nuggets you mention are more valuable today because of their antiquity. When these were traded as mediums of exchange, they were brand new and just one form of money at the time. The quarter you now have in you pocket may be worth $1000 in 1000 years, but it only spends 25 cents today.

Oro -
Gold is not money. Where is it used as such? Not where it WAS used, for these same cultures believed in Sun Gods and bleeding patients to rid them of illness. These, as other outmoded concepts, have passed into history and we do no lament their passage. Gold will not rise in value absent the relative currency falling in value, for gold has proven to be stable if not profitable. If one owns gold, one must see its price rise to earn a profit. If you would like to invest the gold, in any one of a million different ways, you will find it necessary to convert the gold to something else. This something else, is money. Money is what you can buy things with. The best you can do with gold, is to agree how much money it is worth, and make the exchange from there. That is in fact exactly how we do it, yes? We all watch the screens every day and whoop it up when the numbers get bigger. These numbers are money. Gold is not. Try to buy a house with gold. Now try it with currency. Which works?

Boardreader @ "If gold is a simple commodity, there is much too much of it, and it is wildly overpriced. However, if gold is monetary, it must be considered rare, and incredibly undervalued!"

I dont understand. There is more gold around today than there was at any time in history. Mining becomes more efficient, production increases, very little is consumed, most ends up in stockpiles, gold is becoming less rare every day. There is plenty of gold to go around to every soul on earth. Maybe the all only get an ounce each ( somebody else can do the math, numbers arent my thing ) . Now value gold what you like. Make it equal to some food or some labor ( exceeding the labor it took to extract the gold ) . You could value gold in dollars. You could say that each one ounce coin is worth 1 US dollar. You could say they are worth $1000 US dollars. One number is as arbitrary as the next. If it were valued at $1, I suspect they would purchase about $300 US dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Where the ounce valued at $1000, I suspect it would buy about $300 dollars worth of food as it is priced today. Gold is not money, see above.

OK

Colombo

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:31 - ID#33773)

John Disney, Re DROOY

John Disney, Thanks for your information. What does "ADR" stand for?
'scuse my ignorance. I just read your article at Golden Eagle "THE RANDGOLD AND EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO" and I am even more convinced to get some mining shares.

Do you have any comments on Durban Deep's move yesterday up to 2.5? Is this what Gold Dancer is talking about when he said DROOY can go to $15 by January? I am certainly encouraged by the Tael gold price here in Hongkong jumping up HK$37 ( US$4.75 ) since yesterday.

Lou Paquette

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:32 - ID#32080)

mozel I was in the B.C. interior in mining country recently

and fellow there was trying to sell a gold collecting contraption ( sluice ) for $1,500 he got it in lue of unpaid labour incidently, anyway, this same guy lives on property with a good producing creek running through it ( at one time anyway ) . I panned less than a kilometer upstream of him and got good colours out of the mosses and gravels. I was amazed he wasn't using it. A little refurbishing and he'd have his own little backyard operation.

Open-Loop

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:32 - ID#65118)

@AZAU...@cherokee

I know of exactly of where cherokee speaks! He does NOT speak with fork tongue. I am very close by to Ocotillo. Know from where he speaks. It does exist and is a real place. Need a pretty new map though...

nobody

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:35 - ID#387243)

I hope gold sales weren't used for this

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands ( AP ) - Some art experts praise ``Victory Boogie Woogie'' as the pinnacle of abstract pioneer Piet Mondrian's career, while many taxpayers wonder whether the painting was a waste of $40 million.

Jolting the usually tranquil Dutch art world, auditors have opened a preliminary probe into the purchase as complaints mounted Thursday that the 51-by-51-inch unfinished painting isn't worth the price tag.

``This is outrageous,'' declared art historian Bob van den Boogert at Amsterdam's Rembrandt House Museum.

``I think the majority of Dutch people actually hate Mondrian,'' he said, noting that entire galleries were deserted during a big Mondrian exhibit in 1994.

``Victory Boogie Woogie,'' a diamond-shaped collage of small squares in bold blues, reds and yellows, was done in oil and black crayon with pieces of paper and plastic. The Dutch master created it in New York between 1942 and his death in 1944.

The private National Art Collection Funds purchased the work last week with part of a donation of $55 million from the 1998 profits of the Dutch Central Bank. The highly publicized buy, the most expensive art purchase ever funded by the Dutch state, aroused the curiosity of the national Court of Audit, an independent body that investigates government spending.

A preliminary investigation is under way, and court spokeswoman Marijke Ram said a full-scale probe could follow to determine whether public money was used ``prudently.''

``Victory Boogie Woogie,'' which belonged to American magazine publishing magnate S.I. Newhouse Jr. and had hung in a New York apartment, will be added to the permanent collection of The Hague Municipal Museum, already home to the largest Mondrian collection in the world. It goes on display there Oct. 29.

Although it certainly has its detractors - one man even told a newspaper, ``Return that thing. I almost threw up'' - others say it's a masterpiece worth every penny.

The art fund that bought it calls it one of the most important artworks of the 20th century.

And museum spokesman Gerrit de Rook said the purchase was significant because Dutch collections still were missing works from the final years of Mondrian's career.

Selby

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:36 - ID#286230)

World doesn't care about Monica- But North Korea counts

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

AZAU

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:37 - ID#257253)

Open-Loop

Ocotillo is a cactus that grows above 3000' elevation. I am in that
part of the world. Chandler is 1300-1500 elevation, at best. Don't
bother me with your artificial subdivision development names.
City Folk

duh

mozel

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:38 - ID#153110)

@Lou

When you pick up the whole deal for a song, ...

Dave

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:39 - ID#261155)

@ if I was wrong......

and labor did not = gold and vice versus.... why would gold ever become the true medium of exchange.... was it simply because it's relative abundance was about the same.....everywhere...and it was/is the exception of bonaza's, which there were relatively few... to marr golds noble ratio to ones labor everywhere....that made it the standard...
does anyone really think miners produce more value for their labor than wheat farmers or cabbage farmers...hour for hour, labor is labor....and the measure was/is gold....because it has all the other characteristics that make it the perfect medium of exchange... THINK OF THE WORD........
E...X...C...H...A...N...G...E............. :- ) JEZZZZZZZZZZZZ you guys!!

Who Cares?

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:41 - ID#242328)

Ocotillo? Yes, it's just south of Chandler

Heck, since we just moved here to Phoenix last month, I was
out that way last week. Big, planned community with a big
pond, or stream, waterfall thing out in front of the OCOTILLO
SOMETHING or other cement sign molded to look like rock.

I decided I didn't want to drive that far, though. : )

What's the big deal? http://www.drudgereport.com is
a bigger deal tonight. Somebody has finally leaked something
about Starr's report.

Looks like you can stick a fork in Clinton, 'cause he's done. : )

crazytimes

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:42 - ID#342376)

Farfel....

You're New Paradigm post is one of the "scrolling articles" on golden eagle.

Open-Loop

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:44 - ID#65118)

@AZAU... Whats in a name?

Gee, small world! I am in Chandler! Its cloudy and a bit breezy.
Was overcast all day! Octillo is not a town but is a real place and
everybody I know, Knows exactly where it is. Its also a Plant.
Neighbor has one in his front yard. Whats your point?

Selby

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:45 - ID#286230)

If Clinton goes--

How do we tell Gore from Vince McMahon?

AZAU

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:45 - ID#257253)

Lou

The sluice may increase your throughput, but not necessarily your output.
Any kind of mechanization carries with it the cost and trouble associated with that machine. The fellow you reference may have tried it, and if he didn't have the right stokers, either people or machines, it may have not made much difference. You know how stubborn frenchman are. No offense, my family was from France.

Marshall

(Fri Sep 04 1998 01:46 - ID#346236)

Fed Announces Rampant INFLATION in Near Future

Near Future

Economic Collapse a Certainty

CAJI News Service - August 28, 1998 - Exclusive - by William Cooper - Using

the phony Y2K Millenium Bug as an excuse the Federal Reserve Board has

announced its plan to introduce in excess of 50 billion new Federal Reserve

Notes into circulation within the next 14 months. The Fed knows the economy

is in the process of collapse. In a debt based economy such as ours the only

way in which new money can be introduced into circulation is by issuing credit

or creating new debt. The Fed knows the collapse of the stock market will

cause a huge demand for credit and loans when companies and individuals

attempt to remain solvent. The Fed also knows that the introduction of 50

billion new notes into circulation through the creation of new debt will signal

the end of the middle class in America through rampant inflation, the true

result of such a flood of new notes and the only source or cause of inflation.

The elimination of the middle class has long been the coveted goal of

international Marxist socialism/communism.

I have warned you repeatedly of the long term goals of Marxist

socialism/communism for many years. The process of destroying the United

States of America is almost complete and the new world order of socialist

totalitarian government looms large on the horizon. Only two powerful forces

remain in place which have the capability to prevent the communist goal of

world domination from becoming reality. Those two forces are the American

middle class and the Right of all Americans to own firearms protected by the

Second Amendment to the Constitution for the United States of America. We

are over the financial abyss that can and will precipitate the downfall of the

middle class unless the American People have the ability to act swiftly and

conclusively at this time... and without delay.

My advice is to remove all paper assets from all portfolios immediately and

invest heavily in any precious metal of your choice. My recommendation is

Gold as it is artificially depressed at this time. The price of Gold and Silver are

being intentionally held down by flooding the market with both metals

whenever the stock exchange takes a plunge. Smart investors know that the

fall of Gold and Silver during a fall of stock prices is impossible without

intentional manipulation. When all is said and done only those who have

followed the dictates of history will survive the coming catastrophe.

You would do well to remember or to learn, whichever the case, that paper is

NOT money. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note is NOT a dollar any more

than a quart is milk. A one dollar Federal Reserve Note has no more value

than a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note. A dollar is a measurement of

money, it is NOT money. The money of account of the united States of

America is a specific measurement in weight and purity of Gold and Silver

coin. If you don't believe me put a real silver dollar next to a twenty dollar

gold piece. Feel the difference in weight. Note the reality of the commodity

which you hold in your hands. Next place a one dollar denominated Federal

Reserve Note on the table next to a one hundred dollar Federal Reserve Note

and tell me the real difference in the value, if any, between the two. If you

have a brain you have just realized how badly you have been manipulated and

robbed. Now do something about it.

And NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, SURRENDER YOUR ARMS TO ANYONE

UNDER ANY PRETEXT WHATSOEVER... even if you must die in the

process. You are going to need your guns to insure your children's, your

grandchildren's and your great grandchildren's, your posterity's, Freedom and

the Freedom for the future of the world. The only alternative at this point is to

see America fall to the enslavement of a Marxist socialist/communist world. If

you allow that to happen a day will come when your children will spit in your

face.

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