Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:06 - ID#255151)
Chernomyrdin Plan for Russian Economic Crisis Click on the story about Chernomyrdin Plan

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:08 - ID#402151)
cherokee 21:33 & crazytimes

Visited the link

Am a born-again believer.These guys are not the real thing. Have just enough truth to make their errors dangerous. If recent history can teach us anything, it is that slander is a
precursor to genocide. Those who appear to know how the world works and who is pulling the strings
are dangerous fools. They are in way over their heads--not because they never would unravel all the strands of a vast Jewish conspiracy, but because the conspiracy is not Jewish, it is not primarily economic or political or religious. It is spiritual. Satanic, if you will. Ironically, one goal of this Satanic conspiracy is to destroy the Jews. Throughout history one of his favorite tools is to use those who appear under the banner of "Christian". I have found whenever I read anything about Jews and secrets and conspiracies that if I dig deep enough, these "Christians" end up revealing themselves to be deluded and heretical besides being arrogant. These guys at fit the profile.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:19 - ID#237264)

You seen Malaysia and Hong Kong this evening? Singapore and the rest are not doing that bad either, eh.
This my friends and fiends alike, is the beginning of the Asean Trade Block. Hong Kong, China and Japan who will beclose friends and a consolidation will come later.

This new phenomina of casting away the hold of the money lenders is to the benefit all nations including yours asit signals the demise of the IMF and all those who been draining your blood.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:24 - ID#342376)
I agree with your point about a "vast Jewish conspiracy" When I said it's in the blood for the Rothschild's of today to "outdo" Nathan, I meant because of the family ties ( blood ) . The Rothchild reputation, and that of George Soros stands on it's own.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:28 - ID#206298)
Anybody know where gold is trading at right now?
Yen is waqy up and dollar weaker. Shuold be good for gold!!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:37 - ID#288229)


the keys to this are locked in the $$$ they had, and
when they had them.....the point was not the grand
plan....but the levels of influence peddeling---control--
centuries ago....knowing the desire of the few to control
the many.....and that there is definitely a nwo...the
players have always used historical foes---as they
prepare the fields of play now...........
their take on the jewish connection is of no matter, be it
right or wrong...the world has their agenda....
it definitely involves the destruction of israel....

and mr zipper klinton has opened the door by dis-arming our
military, fractionating our allies, solidifying the warring
arabs to fight the infidel...sold the chinese a deepwater port in
s california, instead of giving it to our own marines who requested
it when their base was destroyed in the san fran earthquake...

the wannabees know.......there is a conspiracy....
it lies in the up-coming semi-surprise attack by iran, iraq, syria,
libya, and others.....on the jewish state....then there is the
sampson option of the israeli gov' fire nukes at russia...
oh and crude oil are going to the moon.............
damned soon......the time is now.....THEY KNOW!!!!!!!

here it is REALiSTIC.......for your records.....

crude oil to $ 6 $100bbl by y2k....
gold to $1000oz by y2k......


(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:39 - ID#377196)
@Hugo 00:08 - Well spoken, and needing to be said.
There's nothing more dangerous than two groups of people with two fanatical leaders, each of which is firmly convinced that God is on his side and that the other guys are working knowingly for Satan. THe minute you stereotype anyone, you make them slightly less than human and that gradually leads to their being a useful scapegoat and worthy only of persecution. You'd think that Christians, having started out being persecuted, and with Christ as an example ( who was about as opposite as he could be to most "Christian" fanatics these days ) would have taught us something. I'm a Christian, but most of the loudest most vociferous "Christians" these days make me ashamed to be one. Luckily, if anyone checks what Christ actually did and said, they get a strong reality check. Can't these guys read the bible they wave around so violently?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:39 - ID#262242)
Asia booming up
Something is happening in Asia. The Nikkei is up 540 points and Malasia is up 25%. I have a feeling that when our markets open Tues. they will boom up also. Maybe a rate cut in the works?????

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:41 - ID#17077)
@BART...and this is my post that recently set the kid off... negative analysis of the plat and palladium markets ( see below ) .

You see, Bart, the way it works is as follows: posters on K-1 are allowed to throw arrows and darts at the value of gold and silver. However, heaven forbid, if someone has the audacity to paint a negative picture of platinum and palladium on either K-1 or K-2. They will face the immeasurable wrath of RJujube. He will attack them mercilessly as he displays his supreme knowledge of the white metals.

He is your de facto policeman on K-1 and K-2, ensuring that absolutely nothing negative is written on his venerated plat and palladium...and further ensuring that nobody ever regards gold as more than a short term upside trade since he will always assure everybody that it can NEVER offer profit nor long-term protection to any individual



Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:59
farfel ( @TOM...and my definitive views on Plat and Palladium.... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...are as follows:

There is absolutely no populist perception that Plat is an alternate form of currency or that it is any kind of financial
reserve. In fact, speaking with my coin dealer, he tells me that for the past week, demand for gold and silver is far
outstripping demand for plat coinage. Prior to last week's debacle, demand for plat coinage was holding up well (
if not doing better ) against demand for gold/silver.

In the event of a crash, industrial demand for both Plat and Palladium will tumble ( as both auto and computer
sales will dive ) . Moreover, in a post-crash economy, in order to facilitate car sales and get the economy back on
its feet, I would expect numerous governments to rescind catalytic converter laws ( by eliminating them altogether
) . In doing so,
they will effectively reduce the price of the cars sold, thereby enhancing the likelihood of future car sales.

Sell your plat and gold and silver.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:43 - ID#17077)
Worthy of a REPOST: The Trouble with PLATINUM & PALLADIUM...

There is absolutely no populist perception that Plat is an alternate form of currency or that it is any kind of financial

reserve. In fact, speaking with my coin dealer, he tells me that for the past week, demand for gold and silver is far
outstripping demand for plat coinage. Prior to last week's debacle, demand for plat coinage was holding up well (
if not doing better ) against demand for gold/silver.

In the event of a crash, industrial demand for both Plat and Palladium will tumble ( as both auto and computer
sales will dive ) . Moreover, in a post-crash economy, in order to facilitate car sales and get the economy back on
its feet, I would expect numerous governments to rescind catalytic converter laws ( by eliminating them altogether
) . In doing so,
they will effectively reduce the price of the cars sold, thereby enhancing the likelihood of future car sales.

Sell your plat and gold and silver.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:49 - ID#342376)
Wouldn't a recovery in Asia, reverse all the money that's come over here as a flight to safety? This market would REALLY tank if the DOW keeps going down and Asian Markets go up. No?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:50 - ID#227238)
True Believers on the Word:
I gotta tell ya, it's a never ending source of amusement to those of us standing on the sidelines, to watch, listen and read as the True Believers attempt, once again, to distill a One True Prophecy for our time from what is apparently indecipherable hogwash....... At the very least it seems to be indecipherable to the boobs doing the reading, for you folks cannot even agree among yourselves. ... Some system of understanding you fellas have there. ...... I can tell ya it's something I would really like to get involved in ....... if I knew for certain just what it was that has you folks so fevered. ...... ( I am speaking rhetorically. That was not an invitation for additional proseletysing. )

Whether the green horse represents this faction or that faction is of no conceivable interest to the many who prefer to do their own thinking. Is that so difficult to realize?? Sheeesh!

Please confine that idiotic scriptural prophetic nonsense to its proper venue. Failing that, please get back on your medication.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:53 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re EPA
Thanks. Interesting references! But don't ever trust logic when dealing with governement appointees. Although I personally think such agencies are chartered purely to frighten the serfs into submission and the idea of gold plated sewer pipes was purely a joke, I never underestimate their individual and collective stupidity. Remember, Murphy never sleeps.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:53 - ID#288229)

another look at pm's from our friends at the privateer...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 00:55 - ID#327123)
Up, Up and Away
Malaysia up 25.1%

Japan up 4.25%

Hong Kong up 7.36%

Boy, are we setting up for a sucker rally Tuesday in the U.S. Those of us still in the market will have a great chance to sell the longs and go

short. Even the gold stocks! I have no idea what the mean age of the contributors and lurkers here at Kitco is, but I'm old enough to remember the market back to the fifties. It hasn't been that long ago the adverage P/E ratios on the U.S. markets were 3-5. I think we are going below that NLT October, 2000 and maybe much sooner. Timing is going to be critical for leaping into the major gold stocks. The majors always move first followed by the secondary gold stocks. If Jeil is correct with his charts, and I believe he is, patience now will provide a grand opportunity to enter the major gold stocks much lower than they are now. We are about to witness blood in the streets from the stock markets. The retirement funds of our 20-50 population will shrink to a 10th of what they are now before those poor folks know what happened. Its hard times acomin y'all. May you all invest wisely.....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:02 - ID#288229)

you're the man earl....

hope all is definitely sound well...


(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:03 - ID#17077) other thing, Bart...
...RJujube is now posting on K-1, claiming to be me. So, not only is he slandering me every single time I post over here on K-2, but he is now pretending to be me on K-1 ( which I am NOT allowed to post on ) and posting preposterous statements for attribution to myself.

Although I believe most K-1 posters realize by now that RJ is a complete lunatic, nevertheless, the point is this...he is confusing people.

RETIRED SOLDIER posted an admonition against me here, believing that comments made on K-1 ( by RJ posing as FARFEL ) were made by me.

Bottom Line is this: unless you deny RJ and any of his multiple handle personalities ( JUJUBE, etc. ) from posting on K-2, then this forum is simply of no value and you ought to shut it down. You cannot allow his insanity to reign free on this forum because it precludes non-emotional, analytic theses to be presented here.

Maybe that is what RJ wants...for me to capitulate to his fascist tactics ( which I will NOT do ) or for you to shut down this forum ( K-2 ) in exasperation, in which case he also succeeds in shutting down my voice on KITCO.

What are your thoughts?



(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:07 - ID#255151)
BillinOregon 00:39

Asia is kicking butt tonight. Will that be a boon to US markets? I think that depends on the reason behind this Asian rise. I am wondering if this could be a flight from an overvalued US$. If that is at work here, that might be bad for US bonds. Also might lessen chance of a rate cut. It certainly is something that "bears" watching, eh!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:10 - ID#280214)
Addendum to Crazytimes's 23:27
The Whitehouse correspondent for Geraldo Rivera reports that Whitehouse aides and staff are are tired of hearing "apologies" or "sorries" from WJC. They have been lied to so often now that they don't want to hear any more.

When The President has lost credibility among even his inner circle, he is, defacto, no longer The President in the eyes and ears of foreign governments, the American People, and the U.S. Military. This is not overthrowing the government, rather, we are just turning our backs to him walking away to tend to more important business.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:14 - ID#17077)
RE: Oldman's Call for a Spoos Rally on Tuesday????
...this past summer, I have come to admire the Oldman's analysis of short-term market moves. However, when his most recent analysis is based solely on the basis of an antithetical reaction to Puetz's negative market call, then I would submit he is providing ad hominem comment, not analysis.

As such, I think the Oldman's original call to sell into any rallies represents his gut, intuitive, rational call...NOT his most recent"I hate Puetz" call.

Oldman, just my humble opinion.



Strad Master
(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:15 - ID#250297)
Asia +++++
BILL IN OREGON AND AURIC: No big mystery about the rising Asian markets. Greenspan spent a long time on Friday jawboning about the possibility of a rate cut. It was to be expected that Asia would rebound after hearing that. Whether or not the Fed will actually cut rates remains to be seen. ( Buy the rumor sell the fact. ) It was widely reported that Tuesday's market action will largely depend on how Asia respondes to Greenspan's speech, hence I espect a good bounce on Tuesday.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:18 - ID#254288)
Something to consider

Platinum and Palladium are supported by government's edict, while gold is held low by government's chicanery.
Such chicanery gives confidence to those shorting the metal.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:21 - ID#227238)
Now if we could just convince the voting population of the US to do likewise to all politicians, we would be on to something good. ..... Just imagine a government so insignificant that public offices would have to be filled by conscription. Damn, that has a nice ring to it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:26 - ID#262242)
Strad, good to see you back. As to Asia, you might be right. I do expect our markets to open up on Tues.

And now,,,,,,,,,,to bed

Hi Arden

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:28 - ID#17077)
@JACK...I agree...
...but my point is simply this...if America falls into a major recession and/or depression, then I do not think catalytic converters and fresh air will be priority considerations for legislators. Rather, a hobbled domestic auto industry will become the paramount concern of such legislators. In order to get auto sales going again, then one means of cutting the cost of a car would be recission of the laws that compel catalytic converters from being a part of cars sold in America.

I believe that in such a scenario, the government will throw away most fresh air legislation...especially if the Republicans are in power.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:30 - ID#280214)
Hugo's regrets from his 22:28 ends with a plaint
While re-reading the excerpt, perhaps we should think of ways to DO SOMETHING such as help stir up interest BY THE MASSES in buying Gold. We have a great ally with Y2Kaos. Increase the demand enough and the POG will follow. We can do it. Yes.

"It is precious because goofy teenagers like to punch holes in their ears, noses, lips, eyebrows, and whatever else suits their adolescent fantasies, and insert gold trinkets. Maybe gold is of no more use than a beanie baby and us Kitcoites are simply waiting for the gold craze to catch on. But if deflation means people have less money to through at stuff, then gold is in trouble. I hope I'm wrong....go gold....puleeeeeeeeeeeze."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:30 - ID#220325)
Oldman*** WELCOME BACK ***
I was a follower of yours from the time that you and Glenn used to share information with us a couple of years ago. I think that you will find Kitco much more convivial than in the old days. Your comments were always appreciated then and I am sure they will be invaluable now. Thanks for returning.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:31 - ID#227238)
The jawboning has another purpose as well. That is to determine how much to cut, if it must be done.

He really doesn't want to move rates one way or the other but he's caught on the horns of dilemna. Higher rates exacerbate the international problems ( and the stock market ) while lower rates disturb his view of domestic economic stasis.

If he can talk the market up, perhaps he's hoping that he can squeak by with a smaller cut than he would otherwise have to apply. If jawboning fails to spur the market, look for a larger rate reduction.

Next week is critical in many ways.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:35 - ID#240169)
Nick AUD
I decided to invest some money in AUD but I would like to keep an eye on what is going on in Australia. What sites do you reccomend?

Thank you

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:36 - ID#373403)
It seems like we are witnessing several key reversals in the past 168 hours. Dollar is now weakening. Gold and gold equities are rising. Interest rate policy reversal. President Clinton political reversal with loss of Democratic support. First debt moratorium by a sovereign nation. Currency controls versus globalization and open markets. Oh yeah, the Dow is falling.

How come Rubin keeps meeting with Japan and nothing is announced except that nothing was accomplished. Judging by the markets I am tempted to believe them.

I think Greenspans speech had a singular importance above the lowering of interest rates.

"It is just not credible that the US can remain an oasis of prosperity
unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased stress".

I think that Rubins strong dollar policy is dead. Greenspan is allowing for a controlled decline of U.S. markets and economy in recognition that we are sucking the financial lifeblood from all other ecomonies which in turn will drag us down also. Insofar as global financial assets have increased well above what the market economy needs to function ( Rees-Moog ) they will be brought down to a sustainable level lest the whole system falls. Greenspan is willing to bring us to a lower paradigm in order to relieve the stresses which are accumulating in the current scenario.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:38 - ID#280214)
Earl - you are onto something - conscription for politicians
Another way to make the job unattractive is to put a lid on further tax increases at the local and state level. Never give them another dime and make sure to close all the loopholes. Soon the cost of buying asphalt and electricity rises enough to cut into their salaries. As they fall further and further behind the less their interest in being underpaid. This has been done, intentionally or not, in Colorado as a whole and in many of its localities. Some seats go uncontested or unfilled. Unfortunately many sheople didn't have the guts to hold the lid on. They wimped out and gave in to a sob story.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:38 - ID#17077)'s late at night and my grammar is losing it... previous post, I meant to say...

"In order to get American auto sales going again, then one way of cutting the cost of a car would be recission of the laws that compel a catalytic converter from being part of it."



(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:40 - ID#17077)
RE: earlier OLDMAN post....GRAMMAR correction...

"..this past summer, I have come to admire the Oldman's analysis of short-term market moves. However, when his most recent analysis is based solely upon antithetical reaction to Puetz's negative market call, then
I would submit he is providing ad hominem comment, not analysis."



(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:44 - ID#401460)
Monday September 7, 1:01 am Eastern Time

ANALYSIS-U.S., Japan deepen dialogue of mistrust

``It's time to end the pattern of always making Japan the culprit,'' one Japanese government source said after the talks and a dinner in which Rubin and Miyazawa were joined by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, a long-time friend of Japan's 78-year-old finance minister and former premier.

``Miyazawa has a real problem -- he can't make promises and deliver on them,'' said Robert Feldman, chief economist for Japan at Morgan Stanley. ``It's a fundamental lack of consensus on policy ( in Japan ) that is the difficulty.''

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:47 - ID#255151)
Greenspan, Rubin, US$, and Gold

Greenspan and Rubin stared into the abyss of this spreading currency destruction this weekend in San Francisco. They watched Russia collapse with astonishing speed, and now fear the same in Japan and Latin America. The only solution to delay the inevitable is to print US$. LOTS of US$ And NOW. These boys are going to-- "Cry, 'Havoc!' And let slip the dogs of inflation."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:48 - ID#227238)
That is the problem. There will always be a certain number of people who feel compelled to entertain the lives the of others. But not with their own money. And that will always unhinge things.

The only solution in the end is to formulate a constitution that limits the actions of govt to only certain areas and no more. ..... One more item needs to be constitutionally codified as well: The law of natural selection. ..... Do it for yourself or face the consequences.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:49 - ID#24135)
a matter of opinion ..
My assumptions for the week ..
1. SP500 may test 785 before moving higher
2. Yen target is 128
3. RSA golds in breakout mode
4. SGoly looks like a steal if you can buy any.
5. Notice the lack of mention of much touted Lihir.
Funny that .. market must have finally uncovered
the obvious .. TOO MUCH PAPER and TOO CLOSE TO
Indonesia .. nonetheless its so cheap now all
these problems may have been discounted.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:50 - ID#17077) question of the night??
Bart, what really perplexes me is this: on K-1, there are no dearth of posters who believe that America's financial, political, and social systems are thoroughly rotted....that the stock market is about to collapse...that Gold may soar like a rocket at any moment in a manner never before seen in history....

Given these facts, why does RJujube continue to hold me up as "the Anti-American Man of the Year?" Why am I the special target of his hatred?

Why does he NOT lash out at the plethora of similar-minded posters on the K-1 forum?

It baffles me to witness the intensity of anger this kid has for me. It is hard as I try to ignore, there he is, on my ass, muckraking and threatening me.

Obviously, one theory holds that he has never forgiven me for the "whore" comments directed his way some time ago.

Another theory is that he is jealous of me for some reason or another. Did I steal his thunder or undermine his tyranny of K-1?

You are a very smart man...please enlighten me.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 01:54 - ID#227238)
I don't recall that there was much US criticism of Japan in '95 when they lowered rates to zero and made money freely available for yen/Tbond carry trade. ....... Japanese policies were above reproach as long as they strengthened the illusion of a strong dollar. ..... The BS never ends.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:00 - ID#227238)
John Disney:
I don't mean to second guess you ..... but did you intend to say "test 785" on the SP? ..... Don't know that its recoverable from that level. Ain't nuttin but air below the high 800s.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:04 - ID#225283)

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:14 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
does the western world go tapioca in the next 48 hours, or do we upcrash with the fed on the bid side just under the market?

It sure looks like this is the last line of defense to save it for a while.

I think Allan is testing his magic again. If he fails, the market tanks.

however beware of recent major support areas, gotta have it handy, the tide will stop there pondering the future, and if it looks none too bright, there you go.

will allow people to get out who may not be enjoying the weekend

we are approaching intermediate landing ( support ) for this bird. watch it carefully and listen to no one, do your homework....the proposition that some countries' debt default will come has realized in russia. the fear is that what will stop the tide of countries' debt default?...if russia can do it, then....

Dippies now have been re-taught that markets can go down over !0%. Beyond 20% and they might have to redeem for their retirement, whatever's left.
So far, they are redeeming and it appears to be growing.

some fun facts: soros' loss was derivative related. morgan stanley on sat sold 1bil usd/hkd, advised customers to go long, expecting stability after hkma expresses some measures for stability....but china's real effective currency now is more expensive than when it last devalued by 50% and its growth rate now is worse so that it is a WHEN not IF china will can hk hold the dam?

The GE decline reflects their quasi-bank status and the possible liqidation of index-type funds. First time I seen that.

i suspect clinton's last visit was manifold in purposes: 1 ) talk about china's holding on for some more time bef devaluation ( recently the yen on repatriation of mid yr sept 30 fiscal earnings propped up the yen, that is the bear's rally which must have produced a collective sigh of relief in china ) ....2 ) pushing democracy in hope of quashing a historically expansionary china, and reduce nuke sale to mid so doing he had to say the 3 no's

clinton runs high risk of disapproval from the world community...saying the 3 no's is bad ( esp no to ROC of taiwan ) , attacking that factory was very bad ( it was civil site as the imf and host country invited the un and usa to visit for evidence, and the usa declined ) very dangerous precedent...the media as we know it, the press betrayed us somewhat when all it writes is 'usa the good'...the omission is just as important
and could we believe hillary for an instance? hillary mentioned some conspiracy behind clinton's problem with lewinsky ( i believe she is jewish , omitted by the press ) . if so clinton is hostage to a very powerful force in usa. is the attack on the factory a sign? ( rather than wag the dog thing? ) ....that is if we assign some truth to hillary's comments.

recently the press ran a coordinated effort to suppress the cigar testimony, and we don't get to read that, that's the truth.

i have spent a good deal of time reading today. i can not remember a time when things seemed so bleak. the wall of worry doesn't get much higher than this. we ought to go up. but i dunno. i'm too scared to buy it. which means we really ought to go up. bbl


U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin gave implicit support for the yen's recent upswing against the dollar even though Washington continues to project a strong-dollar policy, a Japanese government source said Friday. After meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa, Rubin told a news conference that the U.S. policy in favor of a strong dollar is ''absolutely unchanged.''

The more cornered the administration becomes, the more likely it is to intervene in the marketplace with bear-crushing liquidity.

now that greenspan has had his anti-irrational exuberance smoosh, he seems more willing to listen to the treasury side of the easing argument. i know you are not a conspiracy buff, so i'm guessing this is what you mean...; )

the intellectual case for a decrease in the fed finds rate is at best vacuous
unless you're long gold

the market seems to be calling for a decrease in fed funds rate when the 30 year treasury rate is lower than overnight fed funds.

japanese put rates in a submarine - took the whole kit and kaboodle to the bottom -

japanese liquidity flowed here. so will ours.

all liquidity does is inflate the balloon - profits used to matter, and dividends, too - aint this new paragdigm something else

acc to my 50yr charts, if we are going to have a bear ( seems we are in one since the brokers are deep beneath the 200day ma ) , it is going to be a long way down..the long running tech indicators have a long way down.....

The Gold Bulls are ranting big time this week-end.. Dines for President, Metz for VP. Doomsday is close at hand...

oleman . . Had dinner with one of my neighbors who stioll works for a living ( rare around here ) . He is a vp ( sales ) of a member of the SP500, the second largest firm in his industry. A large majority of his net worth is in his Co stock. The stock peaked in May at 90, and closed Fri at 47. If you're 55 yrs old and see 1/2 your retirement nest egg disappear in one summer, you tend to get worried. I told him to cool it , cause a guy up in the panhandle who knows about such things said we'd be back at those May highs by the time the Great Pumpkin takes flight.: )

Since when does Rubin pre-announce his intentions

the HKMA is engineering the climb in HK, are they trying to return to old highs in three weeks of intervention?

This night has a real feel of "begging the answer".

Comeon...give the hedge fund guys some credit. They are just "perching" like vultures. Be serious if you think this HK buying is retail!

if asian markets are positive today and tommorrow..look out Tuesday....

we're going to gap and go.......jus' like oleman said.......

Major Maxim: Gov'ts are never bigger than markets.

Malaysian market is up 18 percent.. I guess shutting the door can have some benefits..

late friday, mr. market may have sprung the trap BIG TIME on the bears. the rant-a-bears and crash-a-bears who were showing up on the financial networks and such and calling for a crash this week who HAVE TO HAVE gotten short to the limit on friday if they believed what they were saying. how could they not have ? surely they wouldn't wait for tuesday and miss a trade like that.

oleman . . Whereas: The market has just experienced the most spectacular and devastating drop from the top since 1937; and Whereas: The estimable Steve Puetz is presently on the Kitco chat, making his 417th consecutive WRONG prediction of a crash; and Whereas: The loudest of our rant a bulls have held long for more than a 100 handle drop, and are, therefore, equitably deserving of relief; and Whereas: Trees do not grow to the sky, nor treeroots all the way to the nether regions; Therefore, be it resolved that, beginning forthwith, spoos shall rally to the level of 1055 or better before the arrival of the autumnal equinox. All in favor, say, "AYE".: ) : )

Before the bull exuberance gets carried away, I think spoos should get above 991, nikkei above 7500 and hang seng above 8000 : )

oleman . . You aint never seen the kind of bull exuberance you'll see around here at about SPU1050. 'Course that'll be about where the cajones go under the knife.: )

how do you get to kitco chat?

ya have to turn around in a circle from right to left three times and say "gold is good, deflation is good." never mind that it makes no sense, just do it and you are at kitco.

oleman . . Well financed bulls may buy here, with stops below the 10/97 lows.: ) : )

oleman . . Extremely well financed bulls may buy here with stops below the 7/96 lows.: ) : )

oleman . If 994 holds it, it'll look like the 'killing floor' at IBP around here next week.

Since I have no position right now, I have to pose the following: AG said some nice things. Then, Russia still has no leader. US has a lame duck leader. Japan has no leading gov't. Latin America is going to get worse. Canada is awful. Mexico is bad. Earnings are slowing down. So, all that can go away in a day. Just does not seem like that. it seems like deep-rooted functional stuff. Hey then Globex Spoos are up major so everything MUST be OK...

oleman . . A 50% retrace at SOME point is almost universally expected. Therefore not so likely. But a sizeable rally, to re-inforce the bullish sentiment, and save the Slick One thru the fall elections would definitely be in order NOW.

oleman . .zz: Rally coulda come anytime. Just about HAS to come now, since Puetz is back outdoors, predicting an imminent crash. opti1 is a rank amateur compared to S.P.: )

malaysia 455.24 +91.80 +25.26% That is a pretty good move

boom up on nikkei

the Puetz factor ... ok, if you've any conviction in you all wealthy rant-a-bulls sell your yachts and pile into the "I'm a Puetz contrarian" rally

Greenie never has to change interest rates-just give a speech.....

globex has been taking prozak tonite, happy as a clam!!

Did anyone see Patrick Moynahan on ABC this morning? Slick is toast. Toaster than toast. Burnt toast that caught fire in the toaster toast.

too bad tomorow is a holiday... maybe it was planed that way.. it is clear which way.... the opening would have swayed.....

I wonder if Starr and Congress would let Clinton resign if in exchange all potential charges are dropped..They can't leave it to President Gore to pardon him... Could they????

Not if Starr includes the Presidential Cocaine habit in his report, dgoto.

has happened before. Heard a rumor today that algore had called and talked to Gerry Ford.

But Starr is alied with the republicans. Former CIA head George Bush is a republican. So are his sons. I don't think they want to talk too much about cocaine. Just ask Terry Reed.

I think it depends on how much damage might come out of any impeachment hearings.. A lot is riding toward the presidential prestiage

nikkei 14591.61 +548.70 +3.91%

something has bothered me since Friday. I was thinking all afternoon "I have seen this movie before" in the bond market. Friday before a three day weekend, bulls start sneaking out the back door around lunch; late in the day, bears take it down on light volume, take out the last support, leave the chart looking like its got a bombing target on it for the guys who come back to work on Tuesday. Nine times out of ten, Tuesday comes around and they turn on the afterburners straight up. Only problem is the last half hour last Friday. This scenario works in the bonds when they leave it down there looking like a bulls-eye. I don't know what to think of the last 30 min rally back above support and tend to mistrust it. Any of you guys who have watched indexes around hollidays for several years have any insights?

Clinton's Easter "96" Oval Office playtime is now coming to a HEAD...

yen 132.10

ARCH CRAWFORD WENT SHORT ON A SELL STOP AT 964.00 spu8 ON FRIDAY!! .. and because he stressed how we would most certainly sell off due to astrological hits he said to place NO STOP until the hotline at 2:20 pm est on Tuesday. Ouch!!

Looks like goldman's purchase in the pits on friday was pretty lucky : ) Mitstop called it by saying he ain't heard nothing like that in the pits before ( chaos ) and felt as though something big was happening. We follow technical analysis to try and read where the big boys are taking the market and to have mitstop possibly overhear the transition of bear to bull at least short term is exciting.

Your're kidding. He initiated his position at 964 on friday?? 246 points from the peak?? Has this clown been long all this time?

he has a hotline he updates once a day at 2:20 pm est with a 'full' subscription. He said he had to go on cnbc at 2:20 so around 1:20 est on friday he said to short MOC .. OR! on a stop of 964.00 spu8 AND said to put in NO STOP when he usually puts in a 5 point stop. Well wouldn't you know as he was belching his propaganda on cnbc the 'boyz' shot down and nailed him, reversed it and now he is trapped unless we fail on Tuesday.

The ironic thing is he may have been his own worst enemy by going on cnbc and panicing people into selling and thereby killing his own position.

Arch has one of the lowest batting averages in the minor leagues!

I have targets begining at 1032 spu8 and if we can make it there I'll begin the 'loading' phase.

Guys, could ya'll help educate this lost sole? If Greenspan says he's considering lowering interest rates because the global problems will hit the US - I can understand foreign markets going up. After all, it means the dollar will fall, and even though they will be less price competitive than before they haven't had the credit to push the goods to the US to take advantage of the price advantage, and a weaker dollar and anticipated economic problem for the US means they are all working overtime to get out of US instruments and into other markets. That explains why their markets go up - but why are S&P futures going up? Greenspan is only lowering interest rates to offset all hell breaking loose in the US economy, and foreign money will be leaving. That doesn't sound good for the US markets to me. What am I missing?

man I can't remember a time when globex was so stretched to the upside with NO retracement.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:15 - ID#280214)
Responsibility for oneself and one's own it for yourself or face the consequences.
Earl, that is why I look forward to Y2Kaos. It will enforce your last statement: "Do it for yourself or face the consequences."

A thinning out of the 90% of the population who can not or will not take responsibility for themselves will strengthen our species.
If I fall into that 90%, so be it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:21 - ID#284255)
Tsang plans more curbs
Resplice the url.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:23 - ID#424394)
I, for one, will not go down without a fight
For once the restraints, rules, and gloves are off...
those who have not prepared and can't think for themselves
will not be welcome in my house!

I really must look into getting a 120lb canine companion.
Later next year may be about right - when folks who own them
have decided that they may be too expensive too keep.
Sure I may have to stock a few hundred pounds of dog food.
But after Y2K there may be lots of free dog food.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:27 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
Sounds like a guy needs to have deep pockets to be an Astro Archie subscriber. Betting big without stops? Sounds like the moonbeams are affecting him as well.

Archie over the past year has been at times disapointing with his daily predictions however he has made some mite fine calls on the overall market turns.

nikkei closed 14790.06 +747.15 +5.32% yen 132.05

yen 131.75

really looks like they did some useful talking in g7. found away to turn this thing around.....for a second

for a second???

every nation waisting money to dfend currencies, imf waisting money to bail everybody out and finally g7 waisting money to turn every thing back to normal......soros once took big money from the british, now the bears take everything the taxpayer put into the system.........and it wont help, just make it a long and very painful experience

make it a couple of day, maybe weeks ( doubtful ) , but when my son has kids and they study history, it wont look like much more than a second ( of course thats only, if he every has kids )

imagine, if you borrowed yen funds to buy us stock, today is still a zero gain.....

imagine if you had bought Gold in 1980-1998 as a hedge against prospects for doom.

Strad Master
(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:31 - ID#250297)
EARL and the ALL: Re your 01:31 - Good point! BTW, how's your health?

ALL: I was listening to Bob Brinker's "Money Talk" today on the way to the concert and someone called in asking about PE's. Apparently, yesterday Brinker had made a case for PE's being right in line with what they should be due to some means of figuring that they didn't go into today. Anyhow, the bottom line of his response to the guy was that, with the anticipated drop in interest rates coupled with NO POSSIBILITY OF RECESSION ( emphasis mine ) the PE of the S & P ( which tocay stands at 26 ) should rise to 28 or 29 in the near future which would project the DOW up to around 9600 and the S & P up into the 1000 area ( sorry, I forgot the exact number ) along with the Nasdaq to a new all-time high sometime in 1999. Of course, he was quick to add that low interest coupled with no possibility of recession was an extremely BULLISH sign which implied to me that he thinks the present drop in the market indices represent a wonderful buying opportunity. Now, I know that he has been right frequently in the past, but this time I think he is just jawboning along with Greenspan. I can't believe what he said - but then I'm just a financial ignoramus. Any comments?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:47 - ID#255284)
High P/E? It's a gooooood thang......
Let me know if you're about.

Strad Master

I have a story from 1986/7...I asked a "prominent" share tip-sheet maven why didn't he think the NZSE ave P/E of about 18 was too high, he said "Look at Japan--the ave P/E in Japan is 42, we have a way to go, 'anyway, the higher the P/E the greater the growth. Look at Japan. It's a thriving economy, that's what we want."

I shudder as I remember some of the things I heard & saw in 1987, will write that book one day.

mavens are ravens, I'm@raving_aurator

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:50 - ID#284255)
Your tree is far different from the one in which I sit.

I see many friends, who now think, I am too concerned.
They think I fret over Y2k, and all will be alright.

But I see them not preparing, and think to myself???
That I will have to buy them shovels and seeds.

I will have to stock 3 or 4 times over to make sure there is enough for us all.
I will have to stand amongst these friends and rally them up.
We will have to help our friends through this period of denial.

No yet but in a year from now.
It will be up to those with fore-sightedness to prepare and help those who they can.

For what I do today, will make it easier on some when the times come.
I can't provide for all.
But I can plan to have some extras for those close, who are in need.

Far better five tons of rice than one.
And eight shovels than two.
And when I buy my non-hybrid seeds.
Not by the packet, but by the gross.

I'd rather ten stout men with shovels to work at growing food for their families.
Than two men with guns worried about sending off hungry people.

Perchance Y2k will sat mankind back a few years.
Far better to start again with a good soul and willing spirit.

This will become a time for healing not for war.

At least where I live I will strive for this.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 02:56 - ID#253287)
Mr. Puetz, I think your crashing model is not working this time.
In 1929, US$ is backed by gold, but now it is fully backed by PAPER gold. So, the PPT have virtually unlimit US$ to control the stock market, especially when now Bill Clinton is in a desperate situation.
The great Volitility in the market shows the unlimit power of PPT. They can decide the High and Low, sell High buy Low as they will, and make huge profit too.
In the longer run, traders will lose and PPT will win. Until...disasters I think.

Strad Master
(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:00 - ID#250297)
AURATOR: Yeah, that is exactly what I thought when I heard Brinker go on about it. Which brings me to another question which is more global in nature. Cycles of expansion and recession have been a part of business since markets first started. We are at the turning of a cycle - that is farily plain to see. How is it that the Brinkers of the world and other Wall-Streeters refuse to acknowlege what is plainly foretold by historical precedent? This has always been somewhat mysterious to me. After all, I have no special training in economics. All I possess is curioity and a willingness to be taught by the mistakes or successes of the past. I certainly don't have access to any arcane information. How do rational people find justification for saying things such as "The business cycle is dead!" or that PE ratios of 26 or better on the S & P represent a bullish indicator. I just don't quite get it. Am I missing something?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:05 - ID#153120)
What is US$ Gold doing now?
Is there a web site for Asian gold?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:13 - ID#17077)
There is much Bull jubililation concerning ....
...higher Asian indices tonight. However, do not get suckered into a false Bull trap.

The important thing to note tonight is that the dollar is dropping. Very interesting.

In the past, higher Asian indices usually accompanied a higher dollar and higher US stock market. It was an odd contradiction in logic. Yet, that has been the existent paradigm for some time now.

Now, we are seeing the paradigm shift.

Higher Asian stock markets WITH weakening dollar would suggest that foreign capital flight is in full gear. Ergo, it is quite conceivable that if the situation continues tomorrow night, the US market will awaken to one hell of a foreign capital flight. Will domestic inflows replace foreign outflows? Given our heavily leveraged domestic economy, I would doubt it.

Keep in mind that we are witnessing psychological and paradigm shift in the economy.

It is a mistake to assume the old logic of the Bull Market is still in force.

That is where I think Oldman, etc. are going against their gut intuition ( "Sell all rallies!" ) that there is something different this time...and they are second guessing themselves into believing in a sustainable Bull bubble market.

When the compelling logic for a bull move this week is that "Puetz is calling for a major downturn," then I contend it is anti-logic and purely emotional. The average investor does not know Puetz nor care about his past or current predictions. They will make their decisons upon other more emotional speculations.

Personally, I think Greenspan's recent reality speech is a good hint of things to come. After all, the last time Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech, the market tumbled like never before. I think he is preparing Americans for a huge downslide.

IMHO, of course.



John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:33 - ID#24135)
Matter of opinion ..
For Earl
Nothing goes down forever .. I have
major wave four down at 750 - 785.
Short term must be up .. after we
clear 785 ish then we go back up to
wave 5 or double top ..
the US market has fooled everybody
for years .. wont stop doing that now.
Maybe YOU see air .. Maybe you need

(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:35 - ID#93241)
Bravo sharefin!
Well said. When I was a child, I always thought there would be a nuclear war with the Soviets. By the late 70's, I wanted to become a "survivalist" with a fallout shelter and food and guns so I could survive such a war. As I thought things out and read various opinions on the subject, I came to the conclusion that to come out of my shelter after such a war and have to shoot people to "protect" my premises would be hell indeed.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:44 - ID#284255)
Markets to the moon?
Orgasmic thrusts are typically associated with short fast spurts, then fall over and die.

Seems like Europe is due to follow Asia's lead.

Who has been whispering in whose ear???

Or have all global financial problems just been solved?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 03:49 - ID#257148)
Strad Master
Your curiosity is, regrettably not endemic to humanity. There are many who adopt the lie "curiosity killed the cat" as a portmanteau to preclude thinking. It is very hard to think. Very hard indeed. It is oft times easier if someone else has done the thinking for you and all around you agree with that thinking, than to read a book or talk to someone who says differently. Yes it is very hard to think.

I'm at your shoulder, mate, though we may never meet. The only solution of which I shall be a part is the one that recognises the ultimate goal of humanity, which, in the uplifting words of JTF, is to travel to the stars. This being the only solution I recognise, this shall be the only solution that shall come to pass.

I hope you find these words of encouragement lending you strength:

Ignis aurum probat, miseria fortes viros.
"Fire tests gold; adversity tests strong men."
Seneca, ( 8BC - 65AD ) in De Providentia

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:05 - ID#24135)
more opinions
For Erle ..
Id be surpised if present runup fails to carry to
at least sp 1040.

to all ..
ASA calls January strike 20 were for
sale on Friday at 1 3/8 .. I think that
was a good punt.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:08 - ID#24135)
Orgasmic Thrusts..
I like it when you talk dirty ..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:12 - ID#252391)
Sharefin, great post -some people have a Kitco talent
Up 200 points on the S&P Globex - around 9900 - boy did they catch the world short. I'm calling it the Peutz rally. It started just after I referened his ideas. Gosh almost seemed logical the moon and the eclipse and the stars and the day count off the top - I'm learning though that since this or rather these markets accomodate nobody to sell when the market ihas been down and it seems comfortable is as sure to bring ruin as buying when its up and that feels good too.

At 103 -105 on the SPY there should be some resistance and I may just take a shot there. . Wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a two day rally that turns around and goes down as fast or faster than it rose - what would surprise me is if the SPY would go through 105 and keep on trucking to new highs.

Hey! I'll pose the question again, DOW 10,000 before gold $315???

GOLD up a big $1.40 in Asia. Brent Oil up 24 cents. 3

Looked at the gold weekly chart earlier - just a bounce in a downtrend last week. Need fireworks over $315 on the weekly to really turn that market positive - heck $301 would be nice.

Lastly, does anybody believe Clinton is not toast and will resign by the end of September if not alot sooner.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:21 - ID#252391)
To John Disney
How are the So Africans doing - the Drooyies, HGMCY and Sgolies of the world. Getting any pop - following Australia at all. Can gold get to $300, again in my life time????

(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:23 - ID#284255)
There are many ways we can learn to overcome difficulties.
So long as there is room, then there is room for sharing.

Who knows the new buddies one will find.

Maybe I'm to much of an idealist but I feel many who are aware about Y2k should be preparing not only for themselves but also their friends.
It does'nt really take a lot of money just conviction.

I guess I live in a different country from the US.
But this is what I will be planing for here in OZ.
But I will be well removed far away in the country.

Travels Into America's Future.
By Robert D. Kaplan.
393 pp. New York:
Random House. $27.50.

Robert D. Kaplan has traveled to Omaha and seen the future. Here it is:
''Standardized corporate fortresses, privately guarded housing developments,
Disneyfied tourist bubbles''; ''isolated suburban pods and enclaves of races
and classes unrelated to each other''; an automobile-oriented city where
''you will be even less comfortable outside of your car in the future than
you are now''; a business elite with its own foreign policy ''dominated by
the concerns of trade and Realpolitik rather than by human rights and
spreading democracy''; a politically apathetic populace more interested in
health clubs and the Internet than in community life; a society where the
poor fend for themselves; and a ''civilization influenced by the impersonal,
bottom-line values of the corporations.''

And Omaha, believe it or not, is where Kaplan discerns the outlines of a
future he describes as ''not so bleak,'' one that ''might, in its own way,
be as wondrous as our past.'' He also glimpses this wondrous future in
California's Orange County, a ''more refined and sophisticated'' Omaha-style
suburban pod city.

Thinking I had somehow missed the ''wondrous future,'' I reread these
chapters of ''An Empire Wilderness.'' I found only the cold comfort that
Omaha's and Orange County's high-security suburban laagers will boast a
pleasing multicultural population because corporations find it more cost
efficient to recruit the talented of the third world than to train
low-skilled Americans, and the still colder comfort that because evolving
city-states like Omaha are plugged into the world, their elites are
increasingly skilled at the efficient exploitation of low-wage third world
laborers. This has facilitated a relationship Kaplan describes as
''oligarchal, like that between the citizens of ancient Athens or Rome and
their slaves.''

After following Kaplan through the rest of his travels in the West, where,
like generations of writers before, he believes our future is most easily
perceived, I finally got the point about Omaha and Orange County. After
learning how global materialism and the communications revolution promise
the slow and subtle withering away of the traditional nation-state, the
death of the traditional middle class, a ''wilderness'' of region-states and
suburban oases linked to a global marketplace and a new class of ''rooted
cosmopolitans'' loyal only to their own region but intellectually and
professionally inhabiting a larger world, I finally understood that Orange
County and Omaha were simply the best of these fortified posturban oases.

Both are less bleak than, for example, St. Louis, which Kaplan describes as
a corporate fortress circled by high-security suburbs of lonely and
overworked people, and desperate slums of blacks who are irrelevant to the
American economy. And better than Tucson, Ariz., with its miles of strip
malls, subdivisions of cheaply framed Sheetrock houses and mobile home parks
crammed with drifters and broken families who are forever drunk, dirty and
in debt, with no connection to neighbors or relatives. Wages in Tucson are
stagnant, urban planning nonexistent, political and community involvement
negligible; local business leaders, who might feel some responsibility for
the mess, are being swept away by national chain stores. The city boils with
class resentment and violence, offers low-paying service jobs and is
presided over by a millionaire elite that acquired its wealth by sitting on
real estate. Just when you think the news could not get worse, Kaplan
announces that by the middle of the next century 98 percent of Arizona's
population will live in greater Phoenix or Tucson.

Kaplan believes the West's rural remnants will become irrelevant to its
culture and economy. In Guymon, Okla., he finds a devastated landscape of
cheap aluminum siding, increasing gang activity and desperate Mexican
migrants slaughtering hogs in factory farms. Garden City, Kan., is the
''sharp-contoured loneliness of one-story buildings without an architectural
past, set against the moaning wind.'' Bozeman, Mont., has suburban sprawl,
Disneyesque ranches and new class divisions threatening its natural beauty
and social cohesion. He travels into this shattered countryside on a
Greyhound bus he likens to a prison van transporting the underclass from one
impoverished urban wreck to another, reporting that even in Eastern Europe
and Africa he ''had never traveled among a more rootless or unstable crowd
whose members took such poor care of themselves.''

Kaplan's journeys through Yugoslavia were the basis for his acclaimed
''Balkan Ghosts,'' and his experiences in Africa resulted in ''The Ends of
the Earth,'' which forecast a grim future for impoverished nations. In both
cases, his predictions have proved remarkably accurate, and I fear ''An
Empire Wilderness'' may be similarly prescient, as long as you ignore the
spurious optimism I suspect is a defense against the kind of unjustified
criticism he received for his bleak vision of Africa.

As in his earlier books, Kaplan braids together his own observations with
his meetings with leading businessmen, academics, journalists, politicians,
social workers and government functionaries, and proves himself a journalist
of impressive skill -- tireless, curious and smart. His theories are brave
and provocative, and I cannot imagine anyone will concoct a more convincing
scenario for the American future. But he can be a frustrating companion. His
narrative lacks the humor and serendipity found in the best travel
literature; it sometimes gives the impression of being an undigested, even
unmasticated diary. When he concludes a major section with ''So now I will
pick up my journey from Omaha,'' you wonder: Would Kaplan's editors at The
Atlantic Monthly, where he is a contributing editor, allow him to end an
article this way?

After finishing ''An Empire Wilderness,'' I felt like Scrooge asking the
Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, ''Why show me this, if I am past all hope?''
Unlike Scrooge, we are not going to discover that this apparition was a
nightmare, and unlike Dickens, Kaplan offers no remedies. At the end, he
visits Vancouver, British Columbia, and Portland, Ore., lavishing praise on
their environmental consciousness, dynamic urbanity, human scale and
determination to control the automobile and suburban sprawl. He says
Vancouver is a ''rebuke'' to the places he visited in the United States,
including Orange County of the wondrous future, proof that high-density
cities are desirable because they mean convenient, interesting places in
which to live. But before we can grab this little life preserver he yanks it
back by insisting that the Portland and Orange County models will compete
for ascendancy and that the Orange County model will win, although he never
explains why.

Kaplan's concluding chapter brings another small dose of curious optimism
with the suggestion that places like Tucson, surely the most depressing city
in a narrative with many contenders for that title, are somehow an ''image
of our dynamism.'' But if Tucson is all our dynamism can produce, I say
let's spend more time in the hammock.

Like Churchill proclaiming that Britain's overseas colonies, dominions and
allies would continue to fight if England fell to the Nazis, Kaplan imagines
it will comfort us to know that as the culture of the European Enlightenment
dissolves in the United States, and as wealthy Americans choose protected
and isolated communities, the American ideal of a middle-class society will
spread throughout Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. I take more
comfort in recalling that famous photograph of the high-rise housing project
in St. Louis being dynamited into rubble because its design encouraged
isolation, crime and sociopathic behavior. It is easy to imagine the
sprawling suburbs, big box stores and gated communities as permanent
features, particularly because they are so enormous, pervasive and new. But
if enough people become repelled at how they have disfigured our landscape
and society, and insist on communities resembling Portland rather than
Tucson, perhaps they too will some day be blown to smithereens.

''An Empire Wilderness'' is not written as a call to arms, but its vision is
so frightening and powerful it could have that effect. Maybe Kaplan's
alarming predictions have brought closer the day when we finally tear down
the gates, put the automobile in its place and walk out our front doors to
rediscover our families and neighbors, revive our communities and save
ourselves from his bleak future.

Paul Gold
(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:35 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Weekly Report
The ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available at

(Mon Sep 07 1998 04:54 - ID#185448)
You said: "Cycles of expansion and recession have been a part of business since markets first started. We are at the turning of a cycle - that is farily plain to see. How is it that the Brinkers of the world and other Wall-Streeters refuse to acknowlege what is plainly foretold by historical precedent?"

I dont think they are ignorant. I think they simply run an appropriate strategy: Flog your horse until it is dead. When horse dead, stop flogging, eat the horse.

Has Ambrose Bierce got enivring to do with it?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:01 - ID#185448)
re your 2:47
No fear. Im here.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:07 - ID#33773)
MJPL : Re Hong Kong Gold price
You can try
to get the latest retail rate from the Hang Seng bank in Hong Kong.

Watch out though, the prices are HK$ per Tael.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:09 - ID#153110)
In RoseLand, DownUnder
"So long as there is room, then there is room for sharing.
Who knows the new buddies one will find."

If you have not already taken the doors off your house in conformity with your propaganda of indiscriminate pagan love, I hope you will do it now and report back to us on the "new buddies" that move in to share your stuff with you. If they will share your keyboard with you, that is.

"I guess I live in a different country from the US.
But this is what I will be planing for here in OZ.
But I will be well removed far away in the country." This is good. But, pardon me for observing, it does seem being far away from everybody will limit your opportunities to share indiscriminately.

Travels Into America's Future.
By Robert D. Kaplan.
393 pp. New York:
Random House. $27.50.

Robert D. Kaplan has traveled to Omaha and seen the future. Here it is:
''Standardized corporate fortresses, privately guarded housing developments, Disneyfied tourist bubbles''; ''isolated suburban pods and enclaves of races and classes unrelated to each other''; an automobile-oriented city where ''you will be even less comfortable outside of your car in the future than you are now''; a business elite with its own foreign policy ''dominated by the concerns of trade and Realpolitik rather than by human rights and spreading democracy''; a politically apathetic populace more interested in health clubs and the Internet than in community life; a society where the poor fend for themselves; and a ''civilization influenced by the impersonal, bottom-line values of the corporations.''


This is not the future. It is the present. Can anybody tell me why we have "a civilization influenced by the impersonal, bottom line values of the corporation ?" Tortfeasor ? ROR ? TYoung ?

Does not this describe the all to familiar landscape of a conquered, exploited country governed by puppet government commercial, legal, and local administrative elites ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:16 - ID#386245)
G'nite/early morn all
A nice day on the markets.
Aussie gold shares finished up 6.30%. This after some very nice gains last week.

Couldn't figure out puts this morning. Market up strongly and my puts rose 29% this a.m.. Some very worried people out there. I had one look at globex and sold most of my puts within a few minutes.

Aussie gold index bottomed out in the 800's, now heading for 1400-1600 in the next couple of months. Most gold shares should double in that time. Those 'dry powder' experts on this site have already missed the first 30%. Sittin' on a picket fence just gives you a sore a@@.

If gold goes to 250, I shall humbly beg forgiveness from the fence sitting clique. Icecube's chance in hell.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:18 - ID#230376)
GOD of WEALTH......

has kicked all markets ( "cept Noo Zeelun ) in the butt .Auracious, what did you do to make it angry ? Gooday from the chilly Midwest.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:29 - ID#153110)
@Retired Soldier
It seems to me the best way for a US soldier to enter Germany is as the conqueror. Aren't the US airbases US territory ?

But, maybe your retired status does not entitle you to entry via a base. If so, it would seem to me someone might be employed at the Pentagon to provide legal advice pertinent to your situation. Another reason to consult resources at the Pentagon would be that the tax code has many provisions that are specific to active and retired US military. You don't want to run afoul of the money laundering statutes, I'm sure. Your best bet, in my opinion, is to get your advice from Uncle Sam.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:39 - ID#222231)
You are falling into his trap. The more you respond to his rhetoric, the more you feed his ( EGOS ) . Nobody on either K1 or K2 believes his claptrap or condones his irrational rantings. Please stop acting paranoid.

The new paradigm is the falling dollar. AG has set in motion and alerted the worlds financial community that a rate cut is around the corner. To not do so at this time would mean a deflationary collapse world wide. He has no choice because he will opt for inflation before a depression.

This bodes well for all commodities, especially gold. It's about time. They were driven to abnormally low levels by a super strong dollar policy. Will this new paradigm prevent a market crash? I don't think so. Too little too late. It may delay or prolong it before the end of the year, but when people start losing confidence in fiat money ( 1st thru deflation, then thru inflation ) a crash is certain to happen. NO SOFT LANDING THIS TIME. IMHO.


Thank you

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:46 - ID#250121)

Retired Soldier has a question about importing Au to Germany

If you can help him perhaps you could email him: within the next three weeks when he is due to join you in the gloriously united federation of european states of love and trade.

Are there any golden lines in Gotterdammerung that would transport a salty antipodean into ecstacies of goldbuggery? Do you need a dachsunnery for that one, amigo?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:50 - ID#284255)
I just returned from my hideaway farm.
Miles away out in the sticks.
250 acres of good farmland.
No one with in miles.

When I am firmly entrenched there I will have plenty of stores.
Some of my friends will no doubt find me.
They know already of my plans.

The few that venture that far will be welcomed and food will be shared.

Maybe my vision can't be viewed through your rose coloured glasses.
But the view is far from where you sit now.

This for me is well and good enough.
I have my plans and preparation is well underway.

Call it "Nick's Escape" or whatever.
But I will be there, well out of harms way and well prepared.
For myself my family and my friends.

What Sir!
Are you doing to prepare for what is coming?
Action not words will carry weight when the clocks roll over.

I have enough wealth to share and help my family and friends .
If I choose to spend more of these FRN's for the sake of this, so be it.

But I will be fully prepared.
Water, food, electricity, family and friends.

I wish to do no more than this.

What will you choose to do?
Work for what you have?
Or choose to not do anything?

The choice is yours to act upon.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:50 - ID#153110)
@Crashing Models I subscribe to the Johan school posted below. Puetz beware.
It ain't a market you're watchin'. It's an activity licensed by government.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:52 - ID#317193)
Anyone...Haggis had a URL for a currency convrter...have it at the office
but can't find it here at home...could someone post it, please.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 05:57 - ID#250121)
With your market closed, the situation in NZ was "stunned mullet" & "possum mesmerised in the headlights of oncoming train" waiting for tomorrow's release of Treasury report that is widely expected to be very grim. The Treasurer Bill Birch, has warned the nation that there is nothing to celebrate. We bot our aussie $ today, ha ha. paper to paper. If the mavens are ravens, the markets gonna crash when beautiful Jewel and I are visiting the Eureka Stockade, Victoria, ( the home of VB ) Stralia,in the next couple of weeks.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:00 - ID#26793)

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:00 - ID#435212)

The "Flying Haggis" to the rescue.....



Cage Rattler
(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:03 - ID#33184)
Dollar breaks four month low against yen

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:03 - ID#427265)
GOLD price in US$......
...possibly US$295 by to-nite ( US time ) ???????

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:05 - ID#250121)

Bierce--The devil in the dacshunnery?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:06 - ID#153110)
I ain't takin' the doors off the house, I can tell you that.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:07 - ID#185448)
The Richie-Wagner-Exam
Dear aurator!

If I got you right, take this:

From Gtterdmmerung I would propose "The ride of the Walkures" ( or so ) play as loud as somehow possible and sing along with for instance The Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra. If you have some years of lifetime left, try to go through the whole "Ring". ( You will need a soft pillow, a truckload of noiseless popcorn and a -h some kind of plastic bag or so ( like used on long-distance gliding-flights ) . Richie was somehow looney, but his music is heavy stuff.

If not:

To fulfill Kitco requirements: The Nibelungen-saga contains a lot of Gold-mining-information and is a required read for every goldbug ( more than 1200 stanzas ) .
Beware of Brnhilde!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:08 - ID#252391)
My Globex quotes down
My globex quates got stuck about two hours ago when they were up 2000 point at 9900 - other sources now show a decline of about 2/3rds of that rally. If that be true its obvious there's alot of selling wanting to be done up there at 1000 on the S&P.

Peutz may be laughing at us all who doubted his call for a crash before the week in out. I hate markets that can not hold gains.

Interesting earlier coment on how his puts rose in value even though the market started out to the upside. Increased volitility and a signal of the bottom earlier today.

Thinking the jury is still out on the Puetz Rally - seems our market cooled pretty fast once the shorts could take coverin Europe.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:18 - ID#250121)
Usually Valkyrie or Walkyrie in English. I know the music but am ignorant of the meaning of the lyrics, apart from referring to gods and storms, gold and rings. I was wondering whether there are any golden stanzas that stand out and strike you. Or whether you know of an Ingrish translation. merci.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:19 - ID#250121)
Take a look at that Palladium

Flying Haggis indeed..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:22 - ID#222231)
A classic bull trap is in the making as you say. For the next several weeks we can expect irrational exuberance in equities and the possibility of breaking to new highs. ( THE DAMAGE DONE BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS TRASURURY BY STRONGER THAN NEEDED DOLLAR POLICY HAS BEEN TOO GREAT ) . This will be short lived for when the threat or huge upside movements in commodities, gold and silver emerge the proverbial sh!t will hit the fan.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:29 - ID#26793)
How Russia can save its economy by giving away its gold mines

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:31 - ID#284255)
Mozel - neither am I
But I do expect some of my denial-head friends
To be knocking at the door.

I will watch them this next year as I stockpile.
As they do little but laugh at me.

And I know I will have to allow for them.
A ton of rice comes cheap, shovels too.

And some of my friendships run 20+ years deep.
Call it a personal thing.
But this must be done.

A few thousand dollars will achieve much.
Doing nothing will achieve nought.

I am not blithly opening my home to the world.
Rather preparing for myself and a select few.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:33 - ID#153110)
@aurator When I read your gracious benediction of a few days past, the ear
did detect echoes of LMS, in style if nothing else.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:35 - ID#153110)
@sharefin Me, too.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Stocks and yen soar on news of Greenspan, Rubin meeting.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:42 - ID#222231)
The pieces are beginning to fall together.

Post by RYOINVESTOR on TVX board.

Message 3951 of 3951

A perspective
Sep 7 1998
6:27AM EDT


For those of you who have not read the 1997 article by Michael
Belkin, you probably should. It looks like his scenario may be
unfolding. Basically it's this.

There has been at least two arbitrage ( free gain ) opportunities on
the international markets. Borrow yen and more recently gold; sell
them and purchase US securities. After costs, let's assume that
there is 2% "sure" gain. Sure only if the yen and gold remains weak.
It is the quantification of "weak" that would enable accurate
predictions of yen and gold movement IF this scenario fully unfolds.
Human nature dictates that greed has forced these arbitragers to
play even at gold $275 levels and yen Y145. These people are
already getting squeezed and their thin margins are slipping away.
A sidenote: The US policy of a firm US dollar ( prior to Greenspan's
Friday talk ) , has taken much risk out of the other side of the margin
equation. This is now back as additional risk ... It may be the last

Now, the borrowed yen and gold must be replaced, probably by
liquidating US securities and purchasing yen and or gold. This leads
to a snowballing effect driving POG and the yen higher ( we are
talking about trillions of dollars involved in this potential short
squeeze ) . Things to watch: stronger yen, increase in POG, weak US
bond market. So far this morning, US bond market closed; Y130.**
( up ~ 3 ) ; and gold up $2.00

Arbitrage opportunities are quickly closed in an efficient market
( Macro Econ 101 ) . I am not advising; rather simply giving an
interpretation of recent possibilities. WE ALL MUST MAKE OUR

Good Luck


(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:43 - ID#26793)
Mahathir has taken absolute total control of the Malaysian economy.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:45 - ID#317193)
And a thank you to both...Haggis & Donald

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:47 - ID#384350)
TYoung, Currency converter graphic
Tom, this is a good one, can't remember who posted it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Rubin complains that the U.S. is bearing world problems alone.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:57 - ID#288399)
GOld prices
gold quote of any kind. Doesn't gold tend to go up when $ goes down against yen?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 06:59 - ID#153110)
@Abbey Is Going To Shine; G.S. is going to IPO. There is an
Apres Mois le Deluge quality to current events, I think.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:02 - ID#26793)
U.S.-Japan mistrust deepens; better if meeting had not been held

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:09 - ID#284255)
The Dangerous Phase

Got Gold, Grub and Guns?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:10 - ID#222231)
RR The Great ( A-HOLE )

First, the world has been bearing and supporting the dollar at great cost. RR, WJC and AG have been touting the great USA economy with the use of a stronger than neccessary dollar that has put world markets in jeopardy. Now they see the error of their ways and will cut rates. Could it be because WJC is toast and they will no longer support his polls with a stronger than neccessary economy?



(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:12 - ID#153110)
@I can't believe what I am reading
"There were also concerns that companies that were non-viable or those closely linked to the prime minister would receive preferential treatment in any rescue plan.

But Special Functions Minister Daim moved to allay concerns."

Well, fly me to the moon and allay me. Boy, these new titles sure beat those old boring ones like Duke of Marlborough and Count of Monte Cristo. Earl, if we could just remove their teech and claws, I think government ministers might be worth having around for their Hollywood and Vaudeville value. On reduced salaries, of course.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:18 - ID#386245)
Look at Bill Buckler's
Aussie gold share index chart.

Interesting, eh????

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:18 - ID#185448)

Usually we dont appreciate R.W. for his outstanding lyrics. Maybe the very last picture is from particular interest, as there is some space for interpretation of current markets and/or y2k.

Hagen ends Siegfried's ring-cursed life with a spear in the back. Siegfried's funeral pyre and Brnnhilde's immolation ignite the heavens and earth. The Gods' fate is sealed in the final conflagration and the world awaits its rebirth.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
Japan says the yen has just begun to rise (Headline only)

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:27 - ID#333126)
Nick@C - Namaste' to you, sir
on, Aussie gold shares:

if I have missed the first 10% rise, well, so be it.

the next few days should prove interesting. seeing if the anti-Peutz crash effect still works, opportunities for buying some puts on those stocks bound to ... ahem ... "recover" a bit ... like the big banks, wondering which way the price of gold, silver, nickel and copper goes in the short term...

then, when the crash comes ( and I wonder exactly when that's gonna be - it's weird when you know it's coming but the timetable has been smudged ) , there should be more opportunities for picking up Aussie gold miners on the cheap, during the mass panic sell offs.

maybe. well, i hope so anyway.

bought some MIM warrants today. a couple more days should see if that proves to be another money wasting exercise or not...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:30 - ID#37463)
Fred, have you changed your email address? Last mail I sent was returned. I've changed my email address as follows:

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:32 - ID#37463)
Would someone post the Puetz prophecy. I have been off line for a bit and would appreciate knowing how Puetz is calling it. Thanks.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:36 - ID#384350)
Whatever happened to the G8?
What the hell does this mean!
Bloomberg says, "The US and other Western powers warned Russia against PRINTING MONEY to pay wages and keep banks afloat, after Victor Chernomyrdin, acting Russian prime minister, said he planned to print money to pay state debts. Russia secured a $22.6bn IMF-led rescue package in July, on the condition that it implemented agreed financial reforms.
How else is money created? It is printed of course. Every country in the World just prints money ( actually has a usurer print the stuff ) . Didn't the US have the Fed print up $300 Billion that George HW Bush gave to the S&L's.

Perhaps, this amounts to an attempt of a coup d'tat similar to Lincoln issuing Greenbacks or Kennedy issuing Treasury notes as Dollars. If Russian Govt is not allowed to print its own currency, then who does print the Roubles? They are printed by someone.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:38 - ID#348129)
Kitco showing: 288.50 288.90 +1.90
London M fix: 288.35

Mr. Mick
(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:40 - ID#345321)
Mozel, you are in Amerika, correct?
Not Australia? I am confused from an earlier posting. Good morning, all.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:40 - ID#24135)
Lunchtime in Paarl ..
for Jims ..
Deelicious ..
Steamed broccoli with parmesan garlic
and Olive oil .. broscetti .. pappadew
peppers olives .. sd tomatoes ..
Main change here is strength in Rand ..
opened 6.15 .. At the open Harmony 28.5 ..
so 28.5/6.16 = $ 4.63 .. Randfontn 15.5,
DD 15, sgoli 16.5 bid no offers, avgold
3.77, avmin 4, JCI gold 5.0.
The ASA calls I recommended and bought
at 1 3/8 friday closed 2 1/4. I love that.
I believe one should assume a breakout
and ride it till it tells you otherwise.
Remember Disney's first law .. 41250/yen
= gold price..
BUT woops that says $312.50 !!!!!
so we are now in the region of my second
law ( which I am sure you all will recall )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:46 - ID#333126)
Malaysian stock index marches upwards... again^KLSE&d=5d

with another amazing day on the KL stock exchange, the stock index has climbed very quickly from a miserable 260 to 445 in just 4 short days.

does this mean Mahatdir was right? do enforced currency controls work? Sep 9 is the deadline for foreign banks to remit Malaysian ringgit to Malaysian bank accounts for depositors holding ringgit in offshore banks ... I wonder if the stock rally can continue once the repatriation of money slows ...

Mahatdir also reduced bank reserve requirements for the nth time this year, down from 10% to 8% in July, from 8% to 6% on September 1 and just recently announced another reduction from 6% to 4% to take effect on September 16th. Woohoo! he's successfully reflated the banks. but at what cost? placing the banking community in greater risk from systemic non performing loan haemorrhages? or is he prepared to run the printing presses to keep the banks afloat to write off bad loans? what implications does this have for the economy?


with restrictive governmental policies in place, I wonder how many savvy Malaysian speculators, having made some of their money back in the past 5 days, might think of buying some of the shiny golden stuff? you know, just for themselves, just in case... while the currency's still pegged too...

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:48 - ID#24135)
I caught that too ..
Gianni ..
Naughty naughty printing money ..
jeez these guys are the end ..
Also RSA chris stals caught a
blast from the IMF for his handling
of the recent rand slide ..
That means stals refused IMF help
and loans to beef up reserves..
His attitude was IF you want to run
the rand to wherever you must remember
our inflation is NOT very high and
all your gold mines will fast become
extinct when you see our new costs
.. so take your best shot and keep
your loan.
Rand now firming ..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 07:53 - ID#242325)
the week ahead
The latest TIME magazine has a cover story about the bear. Another sign that a short-term bottom is in place. Spoos up about 2% on Globex. Looks like we will rally to around 8000 on the Dow this week. But the battered commodity related groups should bounce up much more strongly. Sorry Puetz and JP, looks like another bad short-term call.

Hedge fund think tank turns bullish on oil abd bearish on bonds. Not exactly a negative for gold either.

Here's the Hedge Fund/Think Tank:

Global Issues Increased Global Energy Demand Ahead by Tom Logie and Ken Francella, Global Investment
Research, Inc.

In the last issue of Magnum Hedge Fund Reporter, we forecast that the first quarter backup in Treasury yields
would be followed by "a strong summer rally in bonds and interest-sensitive equities." Indeed, as of this
writing in early July, Treasury yields have fallen 50 basis points to a new weekly and monthly low, while the
S&P 500 and many European equity indices have rebounded to set new record highs.

What's the outlook for the second half? We believe that by the end of the third quarter the global economy will
reach an historic crossroads. It would appear that an increasing number of analysts and investors expect a
further slide toward a pervasive, deflationary global slowdown. Yield curves in major western bond markets are
flattening or inverting as investors rotate toward the perceived safety of high quality bonds.

Yet, as we highlighted in our last update, such one-sided sentiment overlooks the real risk of "an unexpected,
temporary drift into stagflation late this year into 1999." What if the world is poised for a reversal toward
energy inflation? If the NYMEX price of crude oil rises toward $20 early next year as we expect, the result will
be a 40 percent year-on-year increase in energy prices. Such energy inflation, combined with a similar sharp
year-on-year rebound in agricultural commodity prices, may add to seasonal bond market selling pressures
during the first quarter of 1999.

But hasn't Asia's financial crisis and recession been the primary cause of weak energy demand over the past
year? Although widely embraced, this key assumption is simply not true. A review of energy consumption by
region indicates that mild El Nino weather conditions over the past 12 months were a far greater drag on global
oil demand than the nascent economic contraction now deepening in the Pacific Rim.

Yet, scientists monitoring conditions in the South Pacific confirm that the two-year El Nino warming ended in
early May and has begun a rapid reversal toward its twin sister, a two-year cooling known as La Nina. Record
hot and dry conditions in South Asia, Southern Europe, and the Southern U.S. are typical of the transition from
El Nino toward La Nina.

Expect Demand to Soar

Looking forward over the next 9-12 months, we expect global energy demand to soar, even if the overall global
economy softens. Meanwhile, we expect that oil production cutbacks will slowly bring supply and demand
back into balance before the end of the year. Therefore, while we were strongly bearish on oil and oil patch
equities from last fall through the first half of 1998, we believe the mid-year washout in energy prices has
created an historic opportunity to overweight this key sector.

In short, while cautious capital continues to rotate toward bonds, we strongly recommend that investors begin
shortening bond portfolio duration over the next 3-4 months, and significantly increase exposure to energy.

Hedge fund investors should also consider taking long positions in agricultural commodities--the El
Nino-created conditions for bountiful harvests. As we have forecast since last fall, the resulting surge in supply,
combined with destocking in Asia, triggered a collapse in grain prices. Historically, the shift toward La Nina
cooling shortens and disrupts the growing seasons for soybeans, wheat, corn, and other crops. Such a largely
unexpected contraction of supply, combined with restocking of depleted Asian food stocks, could trigger a
strong rebound for agricultural commodity prices from September into the first half of 1999.
With crude trending upward; the end of El Nino & the advent of La Nina, many stocks up here 20-40%; unrest
in the Middle East, Commodities at 27 year lows, Greenspan and World Leaders starting to infuse the Worlds
Capital to generate ''demand'' and recovery in the International Economies - this is when I would be shorting
the oilpatch allright....??? - hey maybe it's some kind of a double negative-reverse contrarian play ...???

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:03 - ID#153110)
@Mr Mick America. Where elese in the world have men ever held land unbeholden ?

Mr. Mick
(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:08 - ID#345321)
Mozel - Sir, yessir!! Thank you for clarifying that, sir! :-)
I never read the response, if you gave one, of an area of our country where we could purchase land "alloidal". Did you post a response? Someone mentioned Ireland, but I have to have my Bill of Rights, and Ireland won't recognize it.
I don't get to follow the postings all day, so I may have missed your response.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:08 - ID#29048)
S.J. Kaplan is quoted in the WSJ
Way to go Steven!

September 4, 1998

Silver Futures Close Higher,Adding to Thursday's Gains

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Silver futures rallied Friday at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, adding to gains made Thursday and leading some analysts to argue that the market's fundamentals are coming to the fore.

The September Comex contract rose 8 cents to $4.968 a troy ounce, following an 11-cent gain Thursday. Among other precious metals,December gold gained $1.80 to $290.10 a troy ounce, despite the dollar's recovery from Thursday's ten-month low against the mark. Weakness in the U.S. dollar makes gold more affordable for consumers using foreign currencies, as gold is priced in U.S. dollars. October platinum dropped $2.90 to $367.20 a troy ounce. Edward Kempf, senior research analyst at CPM Group,
an industry consultancy group in New York, pointed out that there is a world deficit of supply relative to demand amounting to 160 million ounces. He speculated that prices could reach $5.20 a troy ounce or higher. "Silver had moved down to levels not consistent with its supply and demand," said Jim Steel, commodities analyst with Refco Inc. in New York.

Indeed, some traders reported seeing fresh buying on Thursday, but others discounted those reports, saying the major activity appeared to be short-covering, or the buying of futures to balance previous sales.

Others remain bearish on the metal. Steven Jon Kaplan, editor of the Gold Mining Outlook newsletter, said silver's gains Friday could mean a sharp drop for the metal is around the corner. Mr. Kaplan explained that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders Report
released last Friday showed speculative investment funds are net long in Comex silver. This week's fund buying is indicative of that sector building a larger long position. As a result, there will be a heavier
sell-off when one comes about, he said. "If you have a sell-off, silver's going to be hit harder," he said. "We could see gold move down by $2 to $3 and silver could fall 15 to 20 cents.' Additionally, he pointed out that the silver market's commercial sector is net short the market, according to the CFTC report.

"You have very good fundamentals as far as supply and demand go for silver, but the commercials -- the people closest to the industry -- are net short," Mr. Kaplan said. "You have these two things working against each other and to some extent they would be canceling each other out.'

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:19 - ID#26793)
Dollar suffers in Europe on talk of U.S. rate cut

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:22 - ID#26793)
Kazakh Central Bank urges calm as dollars dry up.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:30 - ID#26793)
If your dollars are worth less....
Because interest rates are dropping, and you are a foreigner, your local currency is starting to be worth more.....why would you hold dollars in any form including stocks priced in dollars? Under these circumstances the "safe haven" money that had been pushing U.S. stocks and bonds up would want to be repatriated. In summary; a rate cut may not be good news for stocks and bonds this time around. It may be good news for gold and gold stocks instead.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:52 - ID#113316)
Isn't the effect you outline exactly Greenspan's intention. Jawbone the market down rather than actually lowering short-term rates. Downward pressure on US stockmarket still in place as Brazil and the rest of SA potential threat, plus Bill Clinton. All good for gold.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 08:53 - ID#257351)
A dangerous game we play
USA prime rate cut. With the Japanese Yen and German Mark gaining ground against the US Dollar there will be a perception that its 'time to get out' of US dollar currency, bonds and stocks. The Japnese own US$1 trillion in bonds and others an equal amount I'm sure. The extent of foreign stock ownership ( ? ) .

This will drive a US market sell off in both Bonds and Stocks. RR said we have been 'bearing the world all alone'. Could this have been a statement with a future tense as well? In other words, 'we will be hammered as a result of people pulling out'. This also is a 'bearing alone'; the other side of the coin.

A rate cut anounced this week?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:05 - ID#153110)
@Excuse Me, But Currency Fluctuations Are Not Explained By Reason Anymore.
Hey, I agree there's enough asses for everybody to have a jawbone of one. I just don't see that many Sampsons.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:16 - ID#348129)
Greenspan on balance beam

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The quantum shift in market sentiment produced by the global economic downturn has investors searching for direction and asking an entirely new set of questions in their evaluation of the market's outlook.
 The last two weeks have been among the worst in history for holders of U.S. and global equities and there is no consensus on whether the next market move will be upward or downward. For many, the outlook depends on what action, if any, the Federal Reserve decides to take.
 For now, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan appears content to participate in developing the questions and only hinting at answers.
 However, in contrast to two years ago, when Greenspan's rhetorical query about "irrational exuberance" jolted markets, the Fed chairman's stride is more closely matched to Wall Street's in this latest exploration.
 For years, Greenspan argued to a near-deaf Wall Street that the main risk to the economy was that the maturing business expansion in the United States would eventually give rise to inflation. That thinking gave rise to the Fed's decision to keep real short-term interest rates relatively high in recent years.
 But now, Greenspan's job is more complicated: charting a course between inflation and recession amid evidence that either outcome is possible.
 In a speech on the economy delivered Friday at the University of California, Greenspan acknowledged a shift in the Fed's thinking when he disclosed that the central bank's interest rate policy committee decided at its August meeting that the threats to the economy from the global slowdown were "balanced" with those of inflation.
 "It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased stress," Greenspan said.
 The comments offered an earlier-than-scheduled glimpse into the Fed's thinking at the August meeting. Greenspan's statements seemed to confirm Wall Street's suspicion that the Fed dropped a stance toward higher interest rates at the meeting and did so as a first step toward easing.
 "The good news is that Greenspan has indicated we are perhaps about to lower interest rates," said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.
 While such a move would theoretically make U.S. financial assets less attractive to international investors, many believe it would spur a round of easing by central banks in other developed economies, particularly in Western Europe.
 "That could take the pressure off Asia and the other emerging markets" and interrupt the spiralling global slowdown, Cardillo said.
 Indeed, Greenspan argued the need for addressing the crisis. He said economic activity had already been restrained by events from abroad and added, "As dislocations mount, feeding back on our markets, restraint is likely to intensify."
 Those comments put Greenspan somewhat at odds with those economists who argue that the world's problems would not upset economic growth in the United States.
 To be sure, investors have not bought the "oasis" argument, anyway, much less the idea that inflation remains a threat.
 The last two weeks have produced frenzied buying of U.S. Treasuries. While the flight to safety is understandable given the highly fluid situation in markets around the world, the reality is that fixed-income investments are only attractive when inflation is not a risk.
 Meanwhile, for every dollar that poured into the bond market, two or three seemed to exit stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average stands at 7,640.25, more than 18 percent below its July 17 all-time high 9,337.97. In emerging markets from Russia to Brazil, daily percentage losses are stretching to double-digit levels.
 Has the reaction overstated the problem? On that question, opinions run the gamut. Bulls point to continued U.S. and European economic growth, bears to the fact that an ever-spreading crisis has afflicted larger and larger economies, including the United States' largest trading partner, Canada.
 The debate -- and the market's gyrations -- are now the stuff of weekend talk shows. On CBS' Sunday morning program Face the Nation, a show generally devoted purely to national policy and politics, Goldman Sachs & Co. Inc. strategist Abby Joseph Cohen appeared as a guest and took her bullish message to Main Street.
 "We think from these levels, the stock market direction is up over the next few months," Cohen said. "The only way the current level of the stock market makes sense is if indeed we are going into mild recession in the United States," she continued, "and we don't see that this year or next."
 Part of the reason Wall Street is so confident that recession will be averted lies in the same place many have looked for an answer to the market's current malaise -- and that is back with Alan Greenspan's Fed.
 Cohen said she believed investors would behave favorably if given an interest rate reduction -- one she compared to a vitamin B-12 shot. She compared the last Fed move, a tightening, to a flu shot.
 Significantly, comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa after their meeting in San Francisco on Friday offered little sign the two had made any headway toward finding a way out of Japan's economic quagmire.
 Finance ministers from the world's two top economies headed home apparently as frustrated as ever with each other's tactics.
 At a news briefing after the meeting, Rubin pointedly declined to be drawn on whether he felt more encouraged that Japan would finally do what Washington wants it to do.
 "The world needs Japan to rise to the economic challenge," Rubin said. "I'd like to hope that the kinds of discussions we've had will move things forward, but ultimately, what's going to matter is what Japan does."
 Just before the talks got under way, a Japanese official insisted Tokyo had already done most of what it should do.
 Amid all the talk, Greenspan gave no indication he would move quickly enough to satisfy investors looking for a quick fix to the market.
 Indeed, there is cause to believe he welcomed the break in the market's rise. While his speech failed to echo in words his "irrational exuberance" utterance, he returned repeatedly to themes like market expectations and risk.
 That is unlikely to sit well with those who wish for lower rates immediately, if not yesterday. It may also extend the period during which the market's gymnastics look less like the high-flying Olympic vaults of recent years than a new, more cautious style reminiscent of the balance beam.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:32 - ID#26793)
I have been reading here and elsewhere, that American exporters complain that the dollar is too high. American manufacturers also complain as imports are priced cheaper. They ask for a lower dollar. There is only one thing you can devalue against and that is gold. Dollar interest rates compete against gold. Interest rates are nothing more than an enticement to get you to give up your gold. That is the way it has always been since they found the stuff and called it money.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:35 - ID#288295)
Currency crash indicator from JP Morgan

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:41 - ID#26793)
"People are panicking as they rush to sell off the dollar" says Mitsubishi Bank official

(Mon Sep 07 1998 09:48 - ID#28994)
The value spread between foreign currencies & the US dollar may be narrowed with an interest rate cut. However, foreigners holding US stocks receive a substantial benefit when they receive dividend payments.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:06 - ID#433422)
It's rainin' dead cats all over the world

and they're bouncin' all over the place.
There will be many who use this rally to escape. If that happenes tonight, chances are US will continue sliding tomorrow.
I do not understand how big picture sentiment can change so much, so fast. I think maybe there's a bunch of idiots out there.
A fool and his money ( such as it is ) are soon parted.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:13 - ID#258195)
Testing for first time

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:13 - ID#186147)
The TIME cover guaranteed the rally. Combine that with the power of simultaneous "Crash Calls" from Arch Crawford and Steve Puetz, and you got an absolutely awesome rally on your hands. The 200 day MA should contain it, however.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:15 - ID#242325)

Many have long felt that an excessively tight US monetary policy was a big factor in the spiralling global deflation.Now that will probably change.

My take is that the most depressed sectors and markets -- Asia and commodity related stocks -- probably have troughed and like gold offer once in a lifetime buying opportunities. But the big cap Dow darlings still have a considerable way to fall after this rally ends.

Looks like another two tiered markt. But the tiers will be the reverse of what they were.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:15 - ID#316209)
Looks like the G7 is using the Labor Day
weekend to engineer a turn in market sentiment and to take the pressure off of the other currencies. Probably this will spur most markets to recover somewhat, including the US stock market. PMs should also benefit as the US dollar drops.

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:21 - ID#231101)
Elliott Wave alarm

Are any of you on this site alarmed that Robert Prechter was quoted in this week's Barrons as predicting gold to fall to $180 and the Dow to tank to 4000 or less? Responses? His, of course, represents a technical evaluation based on Elliott Wave theory. My own view holds that the deflationary view of global collapse ignores the willingness of governments to inflate, even with the risk of inflation. In Stephen Leeb's book, "The Agile Investor," he says that central banks will always choose to print money to increase liquidity that will avoid deflation. He argues that politicians always risk inflation rather than deflation. We seem to be in the preliminary stages of such conditions, yet Prechter disagrees. Any comments?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:23 - ID#29048)
Today, CNBC is steadily reinforcing the message that the stock market is going up, this is a buying opportunity, etc. etc. The "buy the dip" and "hold for 5 years" message is being preached with fervor.

The Asian markets are way up. S&P futures are positive. The day traders at Avid are predicting a large tradeable rally. Greenspan has indicated a rate cut may be in the cards. I expect all of the markets to discount a quarter to half point cut ( currencies already began doing this last week ) . We may yet have a real "crash" later this fall, but this week the "crash" will be up. ( disclaimer: analysis provided by inmate of gold bug asylum, who predicted 9 of the last 0 gold rallies )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:28 - ID#186147)
voyeur p: Governments prefer Inflation to deflation for one simple reason. Governments almost always survive inflation. They almost NEVER survive a deflation. They will inflate.

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:32 - ID#231101)
Old Gold

You posted during mine. I don't agree that we have been following tight money policies, only that fortuitous circumstances; namely, a global economy that favored the U.S. economy made it possible for the U.S. to expand liquidity while foreign investors subsidized our debt. The strong dollar permitted us the luxury of avoiding stringent fiscal measures. Certainly equity wealth masked our true need for tighter policies or the Fed would have raised rates a year ago. Nevertheless, we agree that times are changing. Do you think the Fed must cut rates now?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:38 - ID#215235)

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:39 - ID#28994)
Voyeur Professor
Because so much today depends on a tax base, whether it be municipal, state, or federal, it is highly unlikely that governments would risk deflation. The tax base must be maintained in order to pay for all governmental services. The government will choose inflation.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:40 - ID#215235)
golden-eagle has new Chat Forum
The only message so far states that Japanese Stock Market gained 700+ points before the close and the Yen had dropped to around 131. Looks good for gold so far on the open Tuesday.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:40 - ID#228128)
New Article at PEI site

When we first published a comparison of this current debacle 12 days from the high, we ran the headline "Worst Crash This Century". We received a few nasty replies from brokerage houses claiming that we were distorting the facts because there had been other declines of a greater percentage within 12 days. While there were a few instances involving brief sharp drops due to news events, none of these previous sharp declines had taken place following a historical major high. Unfortunately, the story has not changed. As we now have completed 34-week days from the major high on July 20th, indeed this decline remains the worst in modern times. The Great Crash of 1929 had produced a percentage drop of only 18% ( 386.1-314.6 ) by day 34 ( excluding Saturdays ) . So far, the Crash of 1998 for the first 34 days has posted percentage declines of 21% in the S&P500 futures ( 1199-936 ) , 25% in German DAX futures ( 6257-4645 ) , 20% in the CAC40 futures ( 4415-3529 ) and 19% in the London FT100 futures ( 6236-5030 ) .

It is also important to note that the US and European share markets have been the major focus of capital concentration for this current 8.6-year wave on our Princeton Economic Confidence Model, which began 1994.25, peak 1998.55 and ends 2002.85. The previous 8.6-year wave ( 1985.65-1989.95-1994.25 ) marked a capital concentration in Japan thanks largely to the manipulations that began with the Plaza Accord in September 1985 with the formation of the G5 ( now G7 ) . Due to the fact that governments thought they could lower the value of the dollar by 40% to reduce the trade deficit with Japan without causing any disruption in other sectors, the capital flows trends suggest that this was one of the worst mistakes made in modern times. The G5 not only set the tone for the Crash of 1987, but by trying to artificially reduce the value of the dollar against the underlying economic conditions, they induced capital investment from Japan to repatriate this causing capital to concentrate within the Japanese economy. By lowering the value of the dollar by 40%, G5 also created foreign exchange losses on overseas investments for Japanese causing them to withdraw from the US marketplace in effect pushing the next domino over  US real estate and the resulting S&L Crisis.

Global capital flows were this enticed by the rise in the yen and Japanese assets. Therefore, when the previous 8.6-year wave reached its peak at the end of December 1989 ( 1989.95 ) , the bubble finally burst in Japan. As capital rushed outward from Japan, it began to look around for another opportunity. Capital then discovered South East Asia as well as Latin America. As the capital flows then shifted, the emerging markets were not prepared for the onslaught of capital and their economies were eventually pushed into a bubble top that burst with the Mexican debacle in 1994. As capital turned once again, the primary focus became the US market as the S&P500 bottomed precisely on April 4th, 1994 with the beginning of this current Princeton Economic Confidence wave.

With the dramatic collapse of Russia in 1989, to a large extent, a fair amount of capital was also enticed into seeking bargains in Russia thanks to the IMF. The Mexican bailout headed by the IMF and the US Treasury gained all the propaganda necessary to raise the prestige of the IMF. In fact, the Mexican bailout was merely a bate-and-switch game. When things died down, Mexico merely reissued its debt in the Euro market taking those funds and repaying the US Treasury. In reality, nothing really happened other than they used their Visa to payoff Master Card. The press failed to pick up on this slight of hand and the IMF walked away with an apparent success setting the tone for our current debacle in Russia.

It is said to say, but Russia is going to collapse. The Yeltsin government, whats left of it, will either fall into chaos or be overthrown by a military coup. There is no infrastructure to see the nation through and the money that has been poured into Russia by a foolish crowd of Western investors has done more for funding the Russia Mafia that has now spread to all major cities worldwide than they ever did for economic reform. We now face losses that are staggering and threaten to spread throughout Eastern Europe in a brand new contagion pushing each state over the brink let a shiny set of black enameled dominos. This crisis is Russia is far more serious than mere trade. The losses taken by banks and hedge funds alike are now causing capital withdrawals throughout all emerging markets. This means that the Russian default will spill over into Latin America within a matter of months and may even seriously impact the Euro next year.

While we had hoped that the first leg down for the US share market would find support at the 23% by October, we fear that the worst case scenario is now in full motion. Given the fact that the S&P500 has already fallen faster in percentage terms than 1929 or 1987, we are most likely going to see a test of the 844 level within a matter of days or weeks. A drop to the 844 level represents a decline of 29%. It should be pointed out that the decline within the first 2 months in 1987 was 40% and during 1929 it was a staggering 49%. A 40% decline in the S&P500 futures would bring us down to the 719 level whereas a 49% drop equates to 612. Our Monthly Bearish Reversals are 844.00, 757.00 and 610.20. In the case of 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials fell within two-months to test the third Monthly Bearish 205.1 reaching 195.4 intraday. During 1987, the Dow also tested the third Monthly Bearish of 1712.5 reaching 1616.2 intraday. Basis the S&P500 futures, the 1987 crash made it all the way to the 4th Monthly Bearish Reversal at 180.30 reaching 181.00 intraday. This certainly warns that a penetration of 844 means that we could drop to at least the 757 area and we may even reach 610.20 before the first major low has been established.

Timing models clearly warn that we must be extremely careful. Any new low next week means that this market is likely to simply collapse falling into Monday September 14th before any real temporary low materializes. The same is true for the European markets. We must also consider the problems of Bill Clinton and the likelihood that a widespread demand for his resignation is likely to emerge following the Star report delivery to Congress, which might be as soon as September 8th or 9th. We are also facing the collapse of the Kohl government in Germany in a few short weeks not to mention a meltdown in Latin America and a possible final collapse in Russia. On top of this, you have the Japanese still trying to talk the dollar down, which makes the politicians cheerful that their currency is rising, but at the same time places the Nikkei at risk of a major collapse due to expanded asset deflation in Japan. The Japanese politicians are likely to cause real serious damage to their own economy. Our model currently shows, that should the dollar break the 130 level against the yen, the Nikkei could also begin a collapse. A break below 11,500 on the Nikkei, and there is little hope that a full-blown banking crisis will emerge taking this index down to 9700. If the Japanese government continues to push for a stronger yen, then the Nikkei might fall to our next Quarterly Bearish Reversal at 8420. Certainly, a year-end closing BELOW 12,882 in the cash Nikkei and we WILL see a break below 10,000 next year.

At this point, we must come to grips with the fact that both the US and European share markets are likely to see significantly lower prices ahead. Despite brokerage house forecasts that new highs will be seen by year-end, we must WARN that such analysis is far too biased to be trusted. It brings us NO joy whatsoever to see the world economy meltdown before our eyes. This is NOT a cheerful day. We have NEVER been an advocate of doomsday scenarios. However, this current decline in US and European share markets is DEFINITELY the worst we have seen this century! While there remains a glimmer of hope that the low for this bear market will materialize on the next half-cycle target in 2000, if Russia moves into a military coup we must warn that these market could continue downward into November 6th, 2002 before any change in trend emerges.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:46 - ID#411163)
Voyeur Professor-Prechter may be right on both gold and the Dow
If gold goes to $180 we would be in a depression for sure. I think his thinking is like mine in looking at inflation/deflation. Governments will always vote for inflation over deflation-true. BUT THE BIG POINT IS THAT INFLATION IS SOMETNING THEY DO VERSUS DEFLATION WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS!!!!! They can control inflation but once deflation starts it becomes unstopable. With stocks at 1.5% earnings
how far can they inflate? The average person is one paycheck from being broke. I would guess that those in the know like Robert Rubin must have their checks so tight they are shitting wire right now.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:46 - ID#174103)
Friend of Another
Warned a few days ago on the usa gold site that the currency wars are about to start. Guess he was right.


Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:51 - ID#295111)
@lenaxe et al, Resource and Gold stocks all they way!

SYDNEY, Sept 7 ( Reuters ) - Strong resources stocks, rising Tokyo stocks and hopes of a
U.S. interest rate cut pushed the Australian share market 1.9 percent higher by midday on

By noon, the All Ordinaries index had gained 47.2 points to 2,551.2 on turnover of A$291.9
million. Soon after, th?????market was 2.05 percent higher at 2555.3.

"The dollar is holding quite well, Tokyo's up this morning, futures are very strong, bonds are
strong and there are quite a few ( takeover ) rumours around," dealer Peter Struk of Reynolds &
Co explained the improved sentiment.

"The market is definitely covering a lot of short positions. I think people are getting a little
worried that we're getting pretty close to the bottom," he added.

Gold stocks sparkled with a 5.6 percent rally as bullion came back to trade well above
US$287 an ounce in Asian trade and as buyers looked for bargains in the depressed sector."

The beat goes on!

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:51 - ID#231101)

Your second to my thoughts prompted me to forage through Leeb for confirmation. Here's what he says:

"...many of today's investors are totally unfamiliar with bear markets. Most are completely wedded to the buy-and-hold philosophy that worked so well in the low-inflation era, but that will be such a total disaster in the decade ahead. Even the relatively few who did live through the crash of 1987 have not experienced a year of double-digit declines, such as plagued the inflation-wracked 1970's. When all was said and done, 1987 was not really a bad year. Rather, it was like taking a turn too fast in a car but coming ou OK because no one was in the other lane.
In contrast, rapid inflation will create jagged stock market volatility in coming years, making years of 10 percent-plus declines equally certain. A those times, stock-dependent, debt-heavy, inexperienced households will be especially vulnerable to going bust. The resulting deflation could be so explosive that even the best-intentioned government might have trouble containing it.
The biggest risk of deflation and depression in coming years is that government won't even try. Instead politicians could be goaded by interpretations of voter polls into pursuing contractionaly fiscal policies, precisely when they should befollowing a very stimulatory economic policy.
Our forecast for faster inflation in the next ten to fifteen years is to a large extent based on the premise that governments will continue to act rationally in the years to come. In other words, they'll increasingly try to enact policies to fire up economic growth in order to raise living standards and get reelected. This will produce more inflation. Pro-groth action is likely to be especiall strong whenever the economy starts to slow a bit. Again, that's because of the lessons we have learned from the 1930's: severe recessions coupled with high debt are a recipe for calamity."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:52 - ID#316209)
IDT's posting of article from PEI site
certainly was quite a bearish ariticle. Generally, from August/September lows, one would expect a rally to October and then a possible smash down as in 1987. If the markets continue to drop from here, it certainly would be very disconcerting. However, from information received so far today about the declining of the US dollar verus major currencies, it seems that the props are in for a rally on most of the world markets.
Comments in the article that continued strength in the yen is negative do not seem to be quite timely.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:53 - ID#258195)
Valuing gold independent of any fiat currency
Having been lurking now for over six months, I must thank Bart and all you contributors for the wealth of knowledge and experience which has been given freely to less gifted souls like me. To be allowed to hear from so many people of integrity has been a rare privilege which is greatly valued.

I have been following gold and South African gold-mining shares for about 16 years and over that time have had my quota of losses - and some gains - like most people I suspect.

One thing that has struck me over those 16 years is that, because the price of gold is almost always quoted in US Dollars, gold's "real" value becomes obscured. That is to say, its value......... independent of any fiat currency.

If an independent index of gold's value ( in Units ) is constructed, it can, I believe, be quite a useful tool.

It is a tool which I maintain for myself on a daily basis.

I calculate the Unit figure at the end of each day using this formula : A x B / 452

where :

A = The day's Gold price in US Dollars

B = The Bank of England's Trade-weighted Currency Index for the US Dollar as given daily in the Financial Times

452 = a constant which refers A & B back to the levels which they had in January 1982.

I chose January 1982 as the starting point because gold seemed to have settled down quite well by then after the excesses of 1979 - 1981.

FWIW, if its value on this basis was 100 units in January 1982, then its main peaks and troughs went like this:

Jan 1982 100

Feb 1983 143

May 1986 093

Oct 1987 110

Aug 1992 069

Jan 1994 083

May 1995 076

Feb 1996 086

Dec 1997 069

Note that the August 1992 monthly average bottom held firm in December 1997 ( last December ) .

It is my hope that if this double bottom can hold, we shall see an ongoing rising trend in the unitary price of gold over the next 10 to 11 years.

For a start, good old gold is trying hard to not disappoint us so far this year. Its average monthly unitary values for the first 8 months so far in 1998 were ( to one decimal point ) as follows :


Perhaps we should all try to keep an on-going track of its value in this way, as it helps to show how gold is being valued independent of fiat currencies. It's a simple daily calculation, and I find it often puts a good perspective on gold when its dollar price makes me unduly optimistic or pessimistic. For instance, when gold in London touched a low of $271.0 on Friday 28th August ( a few days ago ) , that equated to 068.35 Units on my index which was above the previous intraday low of 067.55 which equated to $277.7 on Friday January 09th ( eight months ago ) .

Being unable to monitor this discussion continuously, I don't know if the above is common knowledge here already. If it is............. apologies to all. And if there is another gold bullion index commonly used, I would be glad to hear about it. I do know the World Gold Council touched on the subject in its Feb 1998 Gold Demand Trends issue 22 on page 15 so perhaps we can help get such an index started which will eventually dissociate gold's value from the dollar or any other fiat currency for that matter.

Thank you for your attention.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 10:57 - ID#240241)
Gold Stocks
The following gold stocks being the only ones ( at least that I can come up with ) out there with positive EPS, ( GLDFY, DRFNY, WMC, ASL, NEM, NGC, DROOY, CBJ, RIC, NGX ) . Then eliminating those ( GLDFY, NEM, NGC, RIC ) that are over their Book Value/Share price based on Friday's close, &
knocking out those whose avg. daily Vol. for the last qtr. was not enough for me to feel comfortable ( again GLDFY & RIC, with WMC ) . I worked off
a list of stocks after eliminating anything over US$15 ( personal preference ) & insisting on at least 5% institutional holdings. NEM is
sorta overboard in my opinion on institutional holdings at 71.6% so dropped it along with NGX because of a 62.5 PE. That leaves me with DRFNY, ASL, DROOY, & CBJ. I know some here like DROOY, but having only
2,205,000 shares outstanding makes me a little nervous also. Currently
own ECO & RYO ( took a beating on these earlier but recovering nicely ) .
I would appreciate any comments on the final 4 I ended up with.
p.s. Yes, I do understand that all of the above could mean Jack Squat!
That gold is not normally priced on fundamentals ( hehe ) , but more
on mass hysteria. So taking all that into account heres my first
post to this group.

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:01 - ID#231101)
Skinny and Rack

Skinny, I am inclined to agree that the fate of government, at least the sort of welfare government favored in the U.S. and Europe, depends upon big revenues and they will indeed TRY to inflate. But Rack has posed a very disturbing point: what if deflation can't be controlled? Rack is right on the money with his view that while inflation can be responded to, deflation produces entropy. I wonder if the so-called "war against gold" has unleased a global Mr. Hyde that cannot easily be tamed? Richard Malpess insists that gold's decline has prefigured global collapse!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:04 - ID#433422)

very nice very first

The Hatt
(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:11 - ID#294232)
CNBC Calling For Massive Rally Tommorow!
The talking heads are talking up a massive short squeeze tommorow as a result of the rebound in stock prices around the world! It never ceases to amaze me that they refuse to look at what is really happening within the world economy! With so many shoes about to drop around the world they are very premature in their prediction... Any number of events could take place any minute that would tank the world markets! The american dollar is feeling much pressure this morning and one must ask themselves what will happen to the safe haven of bonds tommorow? Will Japan liquidate US Treasuries and buy gold as Malaysia has just announced? It is my opinion that the currency wars have just begun and the risk in the markets have never been higher!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:14 - ID#43349)
An excellent way to normalize gold price. Actually ALL internationally traded goods should be evaluated in this way to avoid the distorted view that local prices give.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:14 - ID#373403)
It seems to me that your statistic is actually the inflation adjusted purchasing power of gold in $US. I think you may need to do the same statistic in many different currencies and then do a simple average to get the value of gold independent of fiat currencies.

Voyeur Professor: What is the connection between the war on gold and deflation? Is your arguement that the war on inflation in general ( as in all commodities ) was so successful as to cause deflation or gold specifically? I can understand that commodity inflation fighting has destroyed the economies of resource reliant nations thereby rotting the system from the inside out. I cannot figure though how the war on gold ( which I agree has been waged ) would be the cause of global disaster.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:17 - ID#430260)
Welcome aboard! I see you didn't like one stock because of only 2.2 million shares outstanding. Most here have considered low number of share out a positive. For example it's been pointed out that Sunshine Mines has lots of shares in the float keeping it down. Just curious as to your thinking. Regards, --Alan

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:21 - ID#24135)
For Oak ..
.. unsure what criteria you are using .. All the RSA
shares ( save rangy ) that I can think of have positive
EPS this quarter . Where are you getting your info ??
Did you include Harmony ?? Hgmcy?? Randfontein ..??
Anglogold ??
.. For info .. gold index up 72 points
today when I checked.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:21 - ID#43349)
@The Hatt
You are quite right. The fat lady hasn't even entered the building yet.

It's interesting how when things are going up, there are suddenly dozens of analyses around showing how the new dawning is here and things will go up forever, but when things sre going down there are just as many showing how this is the end of the world and things will all fall into a black hole.

Come back in a couple of weeks after the September rally is over and see what kind of picture is on the wall then.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:24 - ID#430260)
Speed & Grant
LOL! You guys are a riot. --Alan

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:25 - ID#24864)
Oak welcome to Kitco Warning DO NOT BUY NORMANDY MINING
Nice to see a first timer hit us with analysis like that.
As I say above DO NOT consider Australia's largest Gold miner. Currently producing 1.6 million ounces, P/E of 12.6 , Yielding 5.2 %. ( Please note, that's not 0.52 % like North American Golds ) . Oh and it was most actively traded stock Downunder today ( 12 million, up 10c to $1.15 ) .
Web site is Not listed in US, Only Oz, Toronto and Montreal.

Oak, hope you enjoy Kitco and again welcome.
Happy Trading JohnC@Sunny_Brisbane

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:28 - ID#410194)
Stock market crash update

When you get a chance, please don't forget to update us on the stock market crash that you said started in New-Zealand this morning and on the upcoming huge drops in the Dow this week.

Also, give us more details on the lunar-eclipse that has just passed: which countries will be the most affected by it this week?

Thanks in advance.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this "delusional" thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more "normal". They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this "delusional" thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more "normal". They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.


Steve Puetz

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:36 - ID#280214)
To the fin who shares
An excerpt from your excellent post of 02:50
"I will have to stock 3 or 4 times over to make sure there is enough for us all.
And eight shovels than two.
I'd rather ten stout men with shovels to work at growing food for their families.
Than two men with guns worried about sending off hungry people.
This will become a time for healing not for war."

I should follow your example rather than Grizz's 02:23.

Maybe that is subconsciously why the floor joists are straining under five years of viddles and why I am planning how to lay in another 5 years of really long-term nitrogen packed, dried & preserved food. The latter may be in a cool burrow a bit further from civilization but where I can grow a garden - especially if the world warms up more. This fall has been warmer than usual - still in the 70's. Maybe it is global warming or a 22-year solar cycle. If the biblical prophecies are right and we get nailed by an asteroid then, a few years thereafter according to scientific models, this planet should be a lot warmer. Up here we may eventually be able to grow a good garden ( we can now with early indoor plants and TLC during July & August ) . Yes, it would take ten people with shovels to turn an alpine meadow and old cow pasture into a garden - thus, yes, five tons of rice would be needed to feed us until our first good crops come in a few years after the smoke clears. We should prepare for a decade of hard times and rebuilding - for this will not be merely a season-long glitch.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:37 - ID#253153)
Those of you that don't listen to the markets will become HOMELESS
We are in a runaway deflationary phase that can't be altered or stopped by any politician or central banker and it's worsenning as time progresses. This phase begun back in Feb 1998 and will continue until it exhaust itself. The bond market is shouting loud and clear, be carefull , be carefull, but very few will listen. Since many of you seems to think that you know more the the market does, so be it. You will be wiped out .

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:39 - ID#190411)
John Disney
I was able to get 3000 Sgoly at 2.625. It went up some, and back down on Friday. The volume here is very low some days, and often there is a big spread.
Friday, the spread was lower on high volume, ( for this stock ) , and the price was off .375 .
Is this a blip, or is there anything going on?
I would reccomend to the holders of SA stocks to use Business Day's daily e-mail quote service. It's free, and at weekend they have a listing of the bigger SA stories in their paper.

I see that St. Helena is lightly traded even in SA.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:41 - ID#267344)
it has begun...
BOSTON ( AP ) -- A physicist with three Harvard degrees but no medical license said he

is ready to begin the first step toward immortality: he will clone himself.

Richard Seed, who provoked controversy earlier this year by announcing plans to clone

humans, said that the first person he will try to copy will be himself, The Boston Globe

reported Sunday.

Seed said his wife, Gloria, has agreed to carry an embryo that would be created by

combining the nucleus of one of his cells with a donor egg, the newspaper said.

``I have decided to clone myself first to defuse the criticism that I'm taking advantage of

desperate women with a procedure that's not proven,'' the 69-year-old physicist said

Saturday at a meeting of the Association for Politics and the Life Sciences, a group of

academic researchers.

Seed declined to give his wife's age, but described her as ``post-menopausal.'' He refused

to give details of how the pregnancy would work.

The Chicago scientist has three Harvard degrees, including a Ph.D., but no medical degree,

no money and no institutional backing. He has vowed to produce a pregnancy with a human

clone within 2 1/2 years.

Cloning would be the first step in discovering immortality, Seed said Saturday during his

talk. He also said he has received hundreds of calls, including many from parents of dying

children who want to clone them.

People at the conference said cloning could be used to produce a child for an infertile couple,

to replace a dead child or to produce a child who could donate bone marrow or other vital

tissue to a sick family member.

Two states, California and Michigan, have outlawed human cloning and dozens of other

states are considering bans.

A five-year moratorium on cloning is apparently being observed by mainstream scientists,

but Congress has failed to act on legislation to outlaw the procedure.

Seed has said that if Congress bans cloning, he will move his operation to Tijuana, Mexico.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:43 - ID#190411)
URL for Business Day's closing quotes

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:46 - ID#421269)
He who offers nothing, finds faults easily in others.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:51 - ID#222231)
ALL-repost-Everyone to a man scoffed at this prediction. Not even one reply.
Please reread item #3.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 23:53
Pete ( ALL-Dead cat bounce? ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even as bad as the drop has been the past week I think we have one more
leg up, possibly to 10,000 before the final implosion. I will try to
enumerate as follows:

( 1 ) Many have profits that would be subject to capital gains taxes of 20%
or more. The herd will not sell until their losses are substantially greater
than 20%.

( 2 ) The herd mentality will be to reenter the market at 7000+ as a buying
opportunity one last time because they have the mistaken belief that the
equity market is still viable.

( 3 ) The FRB will lower rates very soon because if they don't, they will
fear the consequences.this will give one more final breath of life to the

( 4 ) Finally the pundits and media will be convincing the herd not to
panic, a fact that is apparent from surveys of the ignorent investors. This
will give the imputus to # ( 2 ) .

All of the above should occur within the next two months. Do not despair
for I believe this will be the last hurrah before the final meltdown. The
precious metals will shine as never before shortly thereafter. IMHO.

I for one have no empathy for greedy investors that expect 20%-30% gains
yearly forever. They will finally get what they rightfully deserve.

Gone fishing, not for good buys? but the real thing. BBML.

Read my last two posts on K2 to farfel. They corelate to this post in a dramatic way. What the FRB is about to do is a defacto devaluation of the dollar. The flood of shorts to cover will explode the price of gold, all commodities including oil, as the dollar begins its collapse. Will this scenario validate ANOTHER'S THOUGHTS? I think so. IMHO.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:52 - ID#240241)
forgot to mention a couple of things.
I had also knocked out anything with less then $20M cap. & for the moment
had eliminated anything below $1 a share, since I do like to margin occasionally, & currently most of the lower priced gold stocks ( at least
thru Datek ) are not marginable. And the EPS I mentioned was Fiscal.
Anyway, not really concerned with how anyone thinks I came up with the
few I mentioned, Mainly was looking for comment on those I did.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:54 - ID#28994)

The Russian stock market collapsed.
The Russian Ruble collapsed.
Inflation is %150.
Runnaway Deflation????????

(Mon Sep 07 1998 11:57 - ID#342376)
Adrenaline on Kitco!
Kitco feels like we're sipping Mint Julips waiting for the Kentucky Derby on Tuesday! Very exciting! Place your bets.... I ain't ruling Puetz out yet. From what I've been reading on the net, seems like many experienced traders admit to not knowing what's gonna happen! Will Greenspan lower rates? Will Clinton resign? Will Asian Markets continue to surge up? Will the dollar continue to fall? And last but not least, Will Gold continue to rise?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:00 - ID#267344)
JP - deflation???
I believe what you are presently observing in Russia is something very similar to economic conditions in Germany during the 30's when viewed from the global perspective - very similar...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:01 - ID#267344)
I guess my last was in response to "skinny" as well

Cage Rattler
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:01 - ID#33184)
Just another normal day for non-Americans !

Cage Rattler
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:02 - ID#33184)
Could Russia Have Learned from China?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:03 - ID#222231)
crazytimes-YES TO ALL!
I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. If it does'nt pan out, will you float me a loan?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:04 - ID#253153)
Skinny-- I have only one question for you
If you believe that inflation is just around the corner in the US, why is the bond market at all time high's yielding 5.27% ?

Cage Rattler
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:06 - ID#33184)
US: Pondering the Wealth Effect

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:07 - ID#28994)

With all this runaway deflation, how much do I have to pay you if I give you a loan?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:09 - ID#222231)
Last post on K2 to farfel and 07:10 post on K1 to Donald.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:11 - ID#280214)
Sharefin - your posts this morning lift my heart & lend me hope
A ton of beans to complement your tons of rice will yield complete proteins to free you from having to raise and eat animal protein when you may have far too little of it.

But I do diverge from open arms and doors for there will eventually come freeloaders and miscreants who must be identified early - preferably at the door for it will be even harder once they are inside the group. These will have to be dealt with quickly and rudely - harshly if necessary, for the groups survival depends on such action. Supporting a welfare population would literally kill such a struggling community.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:12 - ID#222231)
Sheez, add my 06:42 post on K1
This one is the most important.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:13 - ID#33184)
Dangerous situation developing ...
A Reuters report said that Afghan Taleban rebels warned yesterday of a regional "fireball" if Iran invaded Afghanistan. A Taleban spokesman said, "If the war is imposed upon us, I believe that it will have a domino effect... and I believe that that would turn the entire region into a fireball. I would not be surprised if some of the most deadly weapons, which have never been used in that area, would be used, which would certainly involve the interests of the western world."

According to the Washington Post today, US intelligence analysts have warned the Pentagon and the White House that Iran is ready to send thousands of troops and dozens of attack aircraft into Afghanistan. They said that despite Iranian denials that an incursion is "imminent."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:13 - ID#43460)
Clone, I don't think it will work
Sorry to disillusion you, but I don't think it won't work very well to clone an old man with today's technology. Why? In layman's terms: Each human cell except the sex cells has a certain amount of DNA, packaged in its nucleus in structures called chromasomes. They are all wired together via other structures we'd best not name for the sake of simplicity. The chromosomes duplicate themselves then are pulled apart during each cell division. But there is one catch. There is a counter structure analogous to the odometer of a car ( although it works by shedding a few links of its tail upon each division rather than by rolling ) . When the count gets high the chromosomes can no longer duplicate and separate and cells can no longer reproduce. IMHO

Now here's the catch. The only way to make these counters roll back over to zero again is by a different process of cell division done only by the sex cells. They are submicroscopic so there's no way a mechanic can get under the hood and jimmy them back to zero like he could with that used car you bought last year. IMHO

So if the guy is 70 years old and he does clone himself, then he'll end up with a child which will die of old age about the time he does. ( You don't hear much about this yet because its too new a technology. Just wait 20 years and all the sheep they've cloned will start to die off together and they'll say oops we didn't think of that. ) IMHO

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:17 - ID#24135)
for Erle ..
St Helena is a straight earnings play. They earned
over 2 rands per share the last 6 months and paid
2 out in divs. They will do better this quarter I
think. Thus at $2.65 you'll be getting maybe 4 rands
or 0.65 in divs .. or .65/2.65 = 24 % yield ..
Their resource base is 15.6 mill oz at 50,000 rd/ KG.
gold price. present price is 57,000 so resource base
expands. With 9.625 mill shares out at say 3$, that
make a price per oz of gold resource of 28.8/15.6 =
less than 2 bucks an oz. That is cheap.
Goldfields increased their share stock from 24% to
54 % as a result of an offer to shareholders in Feb
1998. They will probably try to buy the rest sooner
or later. In the meantime, they may sell off a bit
themselves to try to contain the price.
They would normally offer say 30 % over the market
to expect a favorable reaction from holders of the
stock.. If anyone is selling stock, it may be them
.. but it must hurt as they can only expect to have to
buy it BACK at a premium later on.
Like any mine, risks of fire, cave ins, flooding
etc etc are always present. Failing this kind of
unhappy event, I find these numbers compelling.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:19 - ID#342376)
A post from Ole 49'r over on S.I. I wish she'd come over here!
EU futures began trading this past Tuesday in the IMMEX. The most liquid contract is the "nearby" contract, i.e., the March 99 contract. Now line up the dollar fall, the lil gold rally and the EU futures trading beginning timelines...coincidence? hmmm...

Time for all chartists out there to add another contract to their "portfolio" of tracking material...

I posted to this thread many mnay moons ago that EU futures would commence trading this September...well, guess what? My calendar sez it is September!

Have a great holiday!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:23 - ID#222231)
Huh? I'll be nice to you. You won't have to pay me one red cent. Deflation is about to reverse to runaway inflation. IMHO.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:28 - ID#190411)
I did take notice of your post, and, repost.
I especially liked your string of reasoning when you first posted it.
This past week, Kaplan's site had some good reasoning along these lines. He was calling for this rebound, but your thoughts fleshed out the premise, and I believe, were earlier.
I was waiting for Realistic to comment on your post; I suppose that he won't, as it seems to be precisely on the mark.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:28 - ID#358318)
Countries teetering on the edge of financial disaster-
are like a mass perched atop a knife-edged mountain top. To one side
lies a valley known as INFLATION. To another side, a valley
called DEFLATION. Given slightly varying initial conditions, some
countries will topple one way, and some countries the other.
Which way will your rock topple?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:29 - ID#373403)
This is as much an economic phoenomenon as financial. Inflationary monetary response to deflationary contractions of economies in overproduction are not mutually exclusive.

Asia was growing too fast and producing too much. Prices dropped out from beneath their semi-conductor mainstay and even auto prices are declining due to overproduction. In order to maintain market share, production is kept at too high a level given demand. Prices fall. Loans forecast with former prices and profitability go bad. Credit contracts. Governments print, control, and default. Domestic prices of imports for Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. rise as global prices fall for what they are producing. Entire economies crash.

GNP of these counties are falling. Global production is therefore falling. Global demand is therefore falling. America will also have to lower production as exports chop off some factor of the 12% of GNP which it comprises. Import prices are falling. Domestic production is at a disadvantage. Prices are sticky upward.

By lowering the dollar, imports rise in price thereby causing inflation and further causing pain to our trading partners. Other countries further devalue by printing causing inflation at home. Finally, protectionism reverses globalization. Perot wonders what that huge grinding noise is in the gears of the global economy.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:29 - ID#258195)
Valuing gold independent of fiat currencies
Grant,Gollum,Missing Link.

Thank you for your kind responses to my 10:53 today.

ML - you say........... "It seems to me that your statistic is actually the inflation adjusted purchasing power of gold in $US. I think you may need to do the same statistic in many different currencies and then do a simple average to get the value of gold independent of fiat currencies."

I think my use of the BofE TW Index for the US$ ( which is, of course, a measure of the dollar's value against all other currencies ) achieves precisely what you suggest. IMHO

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:29 - ID#267344)
gagnrad - a good point
I think there are cells in the body which have not divided maany times - take a nerve cell for example. My belief is that it can work and will work - just give the wrong scientist the wrong resources and he/she will find a way. I would be very suprised if successful, unpublicised attempts have not already been made. There is a book I must read entitled "Clone." When I have finished it, I may be able to address the question on a more academic level instead of meagerly offering you my "beliefs."


Voyeur Professor
(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:40 - ID#231101)
TheMissingLink: paper and gold


As you say, the war on inflation was so successful that golds demise surely had much to do with our deflationary global crisis. Though inflation diminished, it did so through massive debt leveraging and artificial equity prices. The Great Depression caused governments to ignore the deflationary implications of a market bubble and inevitable crash when debt was so high. Greater debt loads mean a greater chance of deflation following market sell-offs. Even Central Banks have become cavalier about debt, selling gold ( which is no ones debt ) to play the market casinos. In this way, I believe the war on gold was shaped by an attempt to turn away from golds stability for fast-track derivatives and currency liquidity

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:44 - ID#259323)
know what gold is trading at now or today?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:46 - ID#253153)
The years 1999 and 2000 will be a repeat of 1930 and 1931
Counter cyclical forces are coming into effect this year. Because business uses historical cost accounting, profit margins will be squeezed. Because government overhead is so high, it will be unable to cut costs equal to the fall in income. We therefore will repeat the first two years of the Great Depression. After that, instead of the failure of the Credit Anstalt, some major US banks will fail, thus prolonging the depression. Interest rates will come down along with all other prices. Just as they did in 1932, much depends on the ability and character of the president to be elected in the year 2000. If inadequate as then, we will have another war.
be very carefull.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:48 - ID#377196)
Bravo Dabchick and Oak
on your most interesting posts. Many thanks for your work and insight and welcome to Kitco. Dabchick - might it be possible for you to keep us updated on your Dabchick Gold Index, perhaps on a weekly basis.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:49 - ID#259323)
This could be
a big suckers rally up to 8800. Then do a big reverse!!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:51 - ID#259323)
Anybody have any
idea of the spot POG today?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:51 - ID#377196)
Bravo Dabchick and Oak
on your most interesting posts. Many thanks for your work and insight and welcome to Kitco. Dabchick - might it be possible for you to keep us updated on your Dabchick Gold Index, perhaps on a weekly basis.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:56 - ID#270236)
JP: Let me answer.
The bond market is not always correct in its perceptions. The L.T.
Treasury Bond yeilded 2.5% in 1946 because the market anticipated
a return to deflation with the end of the war and we all know what
happened and it wasn't deflation.

The market is currently anticpating ( probably incorrectly ) deflation
so yeilds are low. Even if the market is right about deflation bond
investors who buy now are going to take a bath at least in the short-run
because if there is a deflation in the U.S. the rush for liquidity
will cause people to dump their most liquid assets ( Treasuries ) and
there will be a sharp upward spike in rates. Go back to 1929 and
see what happened to L.T. rates. In the rush for liquidity they took
a sharp upward spike followed by a collapse. I think this time they
will spike and perhaps not recover because unlike the 20's the U.S.
government is insolvent and will likely default on its debt.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:56 - ID#222231)
All-The Story of Banks as told by the Federal Reserve.
Want a laugh! This and ( Jykell's ) ? Island

One of these days gold is going to stick it to them.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 12:57 - ID#190411)
John Disney
Thanks for your reply on St. Helena.
-One more for anyone that knows:
I had Western Deeps prior to the merger into Anglogold. Does anyone know where I can get a figure on the percentage valuation of WDEPY as a portion of AU?
I wrote a lengthy e-mail to Anglogold on their site, but it would not accept it. Do all SA companies have crummy site software?
I'd rather have my Western Deeps by itself, as it seems to be the low cost producer amongst the merged mines that formed the new Anglogold.

Mr. Mick
(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:03 - ID#345321)
clone, how sad this is.....I think I'm gonna hurl.........
"People at the conference said cloning could be used to produce a child for an infertile couple to replace a dead child or to produce a child who could donate bone marrow or other vital tissue to a sick family member".
Humans are more than mere flesh. This is a huge debasement of what we are. I won't even go into the moral side of this. I think I'm gonna hurl.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:04 - ID#377196)
Gold spot bid $288.20, ask $288.70
up $1.60 = Asia and Europe spot - I believe these markets are closed now. BTW, sorry for the previous double post - just getting the hang of it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:07 - ID#222231)

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:08 - ID#343259)
would appreciate any input as to why rangy is lagging, TIA.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:09 - ID#253153)
DEJ--I disagree with you
First, back in 1946 , after the Great Depression and WW2, half of the world was destroyed. Deflation can't follow deflation. The market anticipated events correctly , a tremendous boom which followed in the years 1948-1966.
Second, the US government WILL NOT DEFAULT on it's debts. In the next few years much of the debts world wide will be wiped out by market forces. I believe the US government will refinance much of it's debts at very low interest rates as deflation deepens. In addition, I believe the US dollar will become fully convertible to gold within the next few years. This will create stable currency, invite capital inflows into the US and create the conditions necessary for the next period of prosperity.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:11 - ID#261304)

I saw spot 288.20 in Europe,up 1.40
or so...I got it from a stock chat
( nem ) ..looks to be true...should be up a couple bucks opens at 7:00 pm..go GOLD!!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:12 - ID#401460)

December Gold
December Silver
December High Grade Copper


(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:15 - ID#343259)
you said:
"I believe the US dollar will become fully convertible to gold
within the next few years"

I can't think of any politician on the national scene at this point who has the huevos to engineer such a thing.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:17 - ID#253153)
DEJ-One more comment
The long bond is in a bull market. Sure, we may have upward correction
and yields may rise, but the trend in interest rates is down .Look at Japan, where the long bond is yielding 1.05%.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:17 - ID#401460)


Is the US engineering this or is Japan?


(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:19 - ID#93241)
London gold...
...closed at 288.25 for today.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:21 - ID#401460)

Scroll down to metals.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:23 - ID#253153)
Cool Jing--Today, a fully convertible dollar is not being discussed
But in a 1-2 years, when depression is visible to all , the politicians and central bankers will adapt this option as the only alternative for getting us out from depression..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:24 - ID#429270)
Commercial Bank Loans (Pete)...
How many of those commercial bank loans would have been made

if they were convertible into a currency which read "this certifies

that there has been deposited in the Treasury of THE UNITED STATES

OF AMERICA ONE SILVER DOLLAR payable to the bearer on demand"? A lot

less to Russia, Latin America, and Asia, I dare say.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:25 - ID#29048)
Handy little converter URL


markets closed

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:38 - ID#206298)
Thanks BG
I wonder if we are going to get a movve up to $300-315 and then fail again?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:38 - ID#206298)
Thanks BG
I wonder if we are going to get a movve up to $300-315 and then fail again?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:39 - ID#240241)
2.2M float on DROOY . RE: Gusto Oro
True, more shares hold price's down when stocks are moving up. But,
I'm trying to look both directions. Figure it will hold up longer in
the event gold turns down, giving me more time to bail. Unlike some
here who have access to their accounts during the week, I don't. So
try to set my self up where if the sh** hits the fan, maybe the ones
with the larger floats will fall slower. Oh well, its all a game &
one takes the risks ones comfortable with. Friends think the fact I
invest in gold stocks is crazy enough. *GRIN*

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:41 - ID#266105)
sometimes my amnesia fails me

Let's see, the state of New Jersey raised about a billion
through a bond issue at 6-7% to speculate in the stock market
about a year ago to shore up the liability hole in the state
employees' pension fund. With the major market indices having
retraced the past year's gains, while paying interest on the
debt issuance, I guess that pension fund is now 7% poorer for
that ploy.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:45 - ID#401460)

MOSCOW, Sept 7 ( Reuters ) - Russia's lower house of parliament on Monday rejected for a second time President Boris Yeltsin's candidate for prime minister, prolonging the country's political deadlock amid deepening economic turmoil.


John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:45 - ID#24135)
Only kidding ..
Erle ..
You said
"I wrote a lengthy e-mail to Anglogold on their site,
but it would not accept it. Do all SA companies
have crummy site software? "

Yes .. seemingly crummy .. actually
fiendishly clever .. to avoid having
to answer a bunch of questions from

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:51 - ID#190411)
I like your gold/currency converter. There must be at least one goldbug at Yahoo!.
Some conversions based on the old Latin Monetary Union.
20 swiss Fr=20 French Fr. = 20 Belgian Fr. = 20 Italian Lira = .1867 oz.

.1867 Au
= 75.95 Swiss FR
= 311.65 French FR
=1917.77 Belgian FR
= 91838.01 Lira

John Disney
(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:53 - ID#24135)
Really now ..
cooljing ..
Ive answered that question too many
times already ..
1. Siama wont make money till after
3rd quarter
2. Half Rangy assets are in franc
zone Mali which does not benefit
from slide in Rand ..
Thats why I sold mine off a long
time ago and told everybody I was
doing it .. Please dont ask again
anyone .. this is only my opiniom
anyway .. only the big guy really
knows why some stocks do better
than others .. and he doesnt publish
a newsletter..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:54 - ID#190411)
Yeah, John.
That's what I figured, I just didn't say it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 13:58 - ID#222231)
golddkm, ERLE
Golddkm, you got that right.

ERLE, thank you for a response. It hurts to be hated.

If I were a betting man, I'd give 10 to 1 odds on the unfolding scenario.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:03 - ID#190411)
With your metals post Au+Cu up, Maybe FCX up too?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:10 - ID#222167)
World stock markets rallied sharply last night -- especially
in Asia. Based on S&P futures trading, the S&P could open
16 points higher on Tuesday. And the DJIA could open 130
points higher. Does this mean the US stock market crash
has been aborted? I doubt it, here's why:

1 ) For the DJIA, a 130 point swing is a minor swing these
days. Last week, every trading day had an inter-day
move of at least 200 points.

2 ) A 130 point response in the DJIA is fairly minor,
considering some of the huge gains overseas. This
suggests that US stocks are now inherently weaker
than other markets around the world. But why?

3 ) The giant sucking sound you heard last night? Foreign
investors pulling their cash out of the US. Remember,
it was foreign inflows that kept the US market strong,
while other markets languished. Now that the flow has
reversed, US stangs will suffer.

4 ) Hedge funds are at the root of all of these problems.
A number of trades have gone against hedge-funds.
As each type a trade goes against the funds, they
must liquidate good trades to pay for margin calls
from the sour trades. This is creating a chain-reaction
of margin calls, and causing the good trades to become

5 ) Where are the major hedge-fund bets:
a ) Long US stocks.
b ) Long US Treasury Bonds via the yen "carry trade".
c ) Short gold via gold loans.
d ) Long emerging market securities.

6 ) So far, the major "margin call" pressure has come from
the dive in US stocks and emerging market securities.
But last week, the rise in precious metals has put
that trade in question.

7 ) Finally, the collapse of the Dollar against the Yen
is putting the long US Treasury Bond trades in
jeopardy -- US Bonds financed by low-interest rate
yen borrowings. The big surprise yet to come ( this
week and next ) is the collapse of the dollar against
the yen, and the subsequent massive forced liquidation
of US Bonds as currency exchange rate fluctuations
have the same effect as rising short-term interest
rates. A dive in US Bond price ( rise in yield ) will
devastate the last of the bulls.

8 ) Nothing could be more bearish than a dive in the US
Dollar against the yen. The hedge funds would then
be trapped on the wrong side of all 4 of their major
trades. All of them forcing a chain-reaction of
margin calls, and each pushing stocks and bonds lower,
and gold and silver higher, as the forced liquidations

All of the evidence points to increased instability in
global market, if one takes the time to understand what
was happening last night. A massive stock market crash
looks inevitable in the United States during the month of

My forcast ( first stated in July, when the DJIA was above
9000 ) remains unchanged. A collapse toward DJIA 7000
before the end of August ( which happened ) , a rebound
during the first week of September ( which happened ) , and
then a massive crash toward DJIA 3000 before the end of
September. Watch out below, DJIA 3000 will be here soon.


Steve Puetz

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:11 - ID#153110)
Your line of reasoning is interesting. But incomplete. How will arbitrarily refinancing debt into 50 year bonds @.05% or the like not destroy the full faith and credit of the borrowing sovereign ? If it's not to be arbitrary, what will induce the foreigner to lend for 50 years at a low interest rate. 43% of debt is foreign owned, I think.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:11 - ID#401460)

FCX +11/16


(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:15 - ID#401460)

Yahoo seems to be on vacation, does anyone have info on how FCX and others have traded today?


(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:19 - ID#432148)
Oak - solid as
you say very affirmatively that the US will not hang us out to dry on its debt. I wish I could be as sure. With leaders like we have now? Come now. With the way things are going I believe it will be gold, silver, and guns that will determine survival, if it is worth it. IMHO, and I hope I am wrong!

The Hatt
(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:23 - ID#294232)
STEVE/ I have to agree with although....
I donot think 3000 is in the cards for September! The paper is as we speak flowing from strong hands to weak and this process is far from complete. Just as strong hands are accumulating gold stocks the pog will be held to minimal gains until the strong hands have enough position....
If there is a rally tommorow and note i say if, I am of the opinion that it willnot hold! My take is the market will head lower tommorow as the liquidity is showing major signs of drying up.... For months now i have been warning of a reversal in liquidity which has just begun and will ultimately lead to a major paper burning event! A strong move in the pog will indicate that the gasoline has been poured on the paper and the match is about to be lit! When I say strong move i am talking $25-$30...
This move will come out of nowhere and catch many sleeping except the smart money which is already shifting into gold equities.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:23 - ID#17077)
@PETE...thanks for the advice....
...after a lengthy discussion today via phone, I feel much better.

The RJujube problem is now resolved.

So, I can and will ignore him from this point on.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:38 - ID#348129)
@Steve Puetz
Good post. I would have little simpathy for the lemmings that are now playing dipster on the DOW, hoping to win a huge payoff based on greed greed greed.
Im also in the camp that hedge funds are very dangerous to all financial instruments. Look at what one rogue trader ( Leeson ) wqas able to pull off.
How many Leesons are out there right now playing the market as if it were a casino - with no limits - doubling up evrey time. You will lose eventually.
I predict that there will be numerous hedge funds going bankrupt, and in the process hitting their creditors extremely hard.
This is a very dangerous market........

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:38 - ID#343259)
John Disney- thanks

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:44 - ID#401460)
Russian / Gold

I just read in the local paper, AP I think, that Russia wants to add to their Gold reserves.

Of course they want more US/ IMF $ to allow them to do this.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:46 - ID#348295)
Overnight I talked with some friends that are on a talking
level with some people within ABX, and they are very surprised
that you have this info.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:47 - ID#190411)
@ Highrise
I looked at the Canadian Market quotes, and they seem to be off too.
On Stockmaster, even the Canadian issues are Friday quotes.
It seems that the only people working today in the US are the greedy bosses such as myself.
Sorry about the long interval in replies to those that courteously replied to my inquiries, I have been programming and attending the machine tools.
Enjoy the last of the summer ( in Ersel's Chilly Midwest ) .

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:47 - ID#401460)

Monday September 7, 5:33 am Eastern Time

Russia Plans Double Forex Reserves To Pay
Budget Debt, Not Print Money- Fyodorov

( This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an article
soon )

Seems to be somewhat of an increased news control and block out recently.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:55 - ID#190411)
Do you realise the legal jeapordy that you have assumed by giving a seeming confirmation of THE HATT's ABX insider information?
Based on your last post, I will load up on ABX.

Kidding, you know.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:57 - ID#252127)

They did that with a couple of Yen related articles last night.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 14:59 - ID#295111)
@puetz 14:10

Great post Puetz!!!

However, I'm not as optimistic as you are. DJIA at 3000 is really pushing it. I think the DJIA will hit 6000-7000 and stay there for a very very long time, it may not happen in September but most likely will be a gradual downturn.

In the meantime, the POG is heading towards $3000/oz, again not all at once in September. I see that happening in year 2000-2005.

Hope I'm wrong and it happens sooner though.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:01 - ID#17077)
@OLDMAN...Do Not Fall Into A Bull Trap...
...sir, you have provided sharp analysis in the past. I believe your recent intuitive gut feeling to sell into rallies made compelling, rational sense. Now, solely upon the basis that Puetz is calling for market problems and that Time Magazine featured a bear on its cover, you are now reversing your analysis.

IMHO, your latest analysis is a combination of second guessing yourself as well as Puetz-bashing. It seems more emotional than calculating.

You should remember several things: just several months ago, NEWSWEEK featured a BULL on its cover. For many market analysts, this fact augured the end of the Bull market. Yet, the bull continued on for some time before halting in late July.

Now, the Time Warner organization, recognizing the contrarian nature of market investment psychology over this past decade, has rushed out an issue with a Bear upon the cover. The company ( and maybe its Wall Street associates ) may be hoping for a contrarian populist reaction as has oft been the case throughout the Nineties.

However, do you honestly believe that currently the majority of Americans believe we are in a bear? Based upon recent polls ( 70% investors are still bulls ) , that is not the case. The average American investor has never been more complacent. If anything, a Bear on the cover of Time magazine will not result in contrarian populist will only accelerate the deterioration of mass bullish enthusiasm.

Remember, sir, we are undergoing a mass psychological paradigm shift in this country. Such a shift should would necessarily change the standard behavior of markets, from a predictable '90's manner of reaction into something completely different.

My suspicion is that Time Warner's desperate attempt to instigate a contrarian market response is doomed to failure.

The psychology of the market has shifted and only a handful of professionals would buy a market for any sustained period of time upon the basis of a newsmagazine cover story...particularly one that is coming so close upon the heels of another national magazine's BULL cover story.

Finally, I believe your over-the-top dislike for Puetz is coloring your analysis of this rapidly weakening market. You must remember that Puetz's forecast of an October Crash last Oct., '97 was correct EXCEPT for the intrusion of special goverment interests into the free markets. Therefore, it is inappropriate to denigrate the entirety of his market analysis.

This time around, my sense is that government intrusion into the free market is coming too late. IMHO, a snowball effect of deteriorating global psychology cannot be stemmed by the purchase of a billion dollars of S & P futures in the morning. Nor do I believe speeding up the money printing presses is sufficient to halt the global loss of faith in the American government ( thanks to Clinton ) and ergo, the American Dollar.

Accelerating the money presses will only hasten the stagflationary conditions developing around the world.

We have moved into full paradigm shift best exemplified by rising foreign markets occurring SIMULTANEOUSLY with a falling US Dollar. This phenomenon does not suggest the return to global economic stability. Rather, it suggests a hasty repatriation of foreign capital from America which augurs very badly for domestic bond and stock markets here.

So, I think that, at best, you may get a half/one day rally from your TIME magazine effect....but rapidly evolving bearish populist psychology should spin this bullishness around on a dime.



Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:02 - ID#295111)
@murrstein, @The Hatt
What's this on ABX??? I missed it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:02 - ID#17077)
@ALL...please get the preceding message...
...into the OLDMAN's hands.



Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:07 - ID#295111)
ABX Re-ourchase of shares
I got a note from a student who had contacted ABX via EMAIL.
The response from ABX investor relations to whether ABX ghas re-purchased shares was as follows:

Thank for your email message. Barrick is weighing the various options and the stock repurchase plan is again under consideration as a result of the weakness in both the gold market and our stock price. However, given opportunities that maybe available in the current market and our commitment to the Pascua Project in Chile, it remains to be seen whether ABX will repurchase its shares under the current program.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:11 - ID#295111)
5% of ABX shorted
Last time I checked, ABX was shorted approx 13-15 million shares. That's about 5% of the shares outstanding. @SAM_A has posted that the short is due to some kind of debentures convertible by ABX, HOWEVER....IT STILL IS A SHORT POSITION!!!!!!

I have always held the belief that once this short position is covered, the POG is going to up and up.

THAT IS THE SIGNAL THAT THE BEAR MARKET IN GOLD HAS ENDED AND THE BULL HAS BEGUN. When the manipulators cover the short position in ABX.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:13 - ID#348295)
The Hatt alluded to info he was privy to, that ABX may close
their huge hedge position very soon. ( See his complete post on
this either Sat. or Sun.}

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:15 - ID#190411)
@Tantalus Rex
THE HATT had one last night about ABX unwinding their forward contracts for something approaching a One billion dollar gain. ( 1,000,000,000 ) .
Some of the other mines have done that, including Kinross, and Homestake's Plutonic hedges.
If that is the case with ABX, we buggers are nearing farfel's fabled "short squeeze".
I haven't the slightest bit of confirmatory info or that, and will not act on it.
If THE HATT is right, then he would have broken one of the most significant stories on goldbuggery of all time.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:19 - ID#346277)
y2k complient dwelling?
In 1971 I bought a 40 acre farm for $9500.00 in the Maritimes P.E.I.
Renovated the house from top to bottom, grew a large vegetable garden
raise raised pigs,chicken and geese for my own consumption. $5.25 would
buy you 30 pounds of cod right from the habour. Exchanging pork for beef
with my neighbour, by fall the freezer was filled, had many enjoyable
inexpensive dinners with friends including home made wine and beer.
In 75 bought 15 acres of land for $2500.00 half wooded half clear.In 76
build my first log cabin 14by14 feet using the trees on the property total cost 375.00 boards for floor and ceiling including the chainsaw.
79 raised a post and beam barn, 1980 started to build a Thermal Envelope
House [passive solar] with a full lenght greenhouse 10 by 36 feet facing
10 degrees east due south. Wood and coal-burning kitchen stove and airtight wood burning stove acting as a fire place would heat the whole house.
With the handpump for the well in the loft of the barn as a backup. For personal reason I sold everything and moved to Toronto in 91. With 2yk
approaching I feel it is time to pick up where I have left off, I am looking for property within a 100 mile north of Toronto with existing
house, outbuilding and small acreage near a small community maybe.
I would like to exchange information with anyone with similar interests or anyone having started such a project of their own or already set up. I grew up
in post-war Austria no running water, outhouse etc. But we had fresh
endive salad in february etc. I feel,I received a formidable training in such
matters that may yet be worth a few ounces of Gold.
My E-mail

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:23 - ID#348295)
My statement was that some people I kmow are surprised that the
Hatt had this info. I am surprised also. I do not endorse anyone
on this forum as to the valadity of their posting.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:23 - ID#343259)
more on ABX
I've heard that Pascua could be a major disappointment/write-down.
Also closing out the hedge this year may give them to big a tax burden.
Not to say I'd love to seen them do it and the direct poitive impact on gold prices....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:25 - ID#225283)

CONVERTION..just search for one there are hundreds out there

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:25 - ID#153102)
@Puetz Crash Model
"4 ) Hedge funds are at the root of all of these problems.
A number of trades have gone against hedge-funds.
As each type a trade goes against the funds, they
must liquidate good trades to pay for margin calls
from the sour trades. This is creating a chain-reaction
of margin calls, and causing the good trades to become

5 ) Where are the major hedge-fund bets:
a ) Long US stocks.
b ) Long US Treasury Bonds via the yen "carry trade".
c ) Short gold via gold loans.
d ) Long emerging market securities.

6 ) So far, the major "margin call" pressure has come from
the dive in US stocks and emerging market securities.
But last week, the rise in precious metals has put
that trade in question"

Where is the empirical data in support of #4 re: hedge funds as causa causans ?

Fed easing of margin requirements will relieve every pressure point outlined.
A rise in US equities will relieve pressure.
A drop in gold will relieve pressure.
Fed directed bond buying by banks can keep bonds up even as yen carry yen repatriate.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:28 - ID#190411)
Tantalus Rex
I went back, and found it for you. See sat 05 sep 10:25 PM
MURRSTEIN, I was kidding, perhaps not as you were when you threatened the posters here earlier this year.
You might recall the term "MURRed"?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:34 - ID#206235)
@ Tantalus Rex...... "Optimistic?"
Geeeez, I KNOW I'm in an Orwellian twilight zone when "Optimism" is gauged on how severaly and how far markets and economies will crash. Pretty sick..... Yes, yes, I know, it's all about the total collapse of society as we know it so we can return to "Moral" and "honest" money, anarchy, and all live happily ever after.

Like they did a century or two ago when folks lived to the ripe old age of 25 or 30 and most dies miserable and peniless like a good "serf" should.

Uh huh... if "Optimism" is cheering for the collaps of all that's been economically good for mankind.... count me a "Pessimist" from now on.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:39 - ID#242325)
Recent events have made it crystal clear that the US financial and economic elite faces a most unpalatable dilemma. Either reflate in a big way or write off many hundreds of billions of dollars of emerging market and related debt as uncollectable and watch ther world sink into a 1930s type Depression.

Given this stark choice there is litttle doubt in my mind that the reflation route be chosen. Most bullish for all commodities and especially gold. Bearish for bonds, bearish for the dollar. Good for emerging markets. Mixed impact on US stocks -- bullish for cyclicals and commodity related issues. But bearish for financial and growth stocks.

JP keeps saying that the deflationary tide is unstoppable. To that I say, NUTS. As long as US is folowing deflationary policies there is little the rest of the world can do as long as it is on a de facto dollar standard. BUT IF THE US DECIDES TO REFLATE -- THAT IS ANOTHER MATTER ENTIRELY.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:44 - ID#206235)
@ Puetz..... Crash this week, yes or no?
Puetz you're making my head spin so badly I feel like Linda Blair in the "Exorcist". Yesterday you tell us that the eclispe is over, and that your forecast for a meltdown this week is now coming true and will spreading in foreign markets, and will surely usher in a huge down move in the S & P come Tuesday.

But that was yesterday eh? Now today you're telling us all the markets are up and you expect the S & P to open higher??? What gives Puetz? Wasn't the Full Moon / Eclispe suppsoed to be the trigger this week? You're back tracking and bailing out ALREADY????

And then there's that self serving bit in your last post. You know....
How the market is doing exactly as you predicted it would, having made the "Crash" call for the first time in July, when DOW was above 9000!!!!

Come come now Puetz, have you gotten Alzheimers? You don't remember all the DOZENS of previous times you've made these crash calls right here on this forum? You and practically EVERY OTHER conscious market analyst predicted a major correction when DOW reached 9000 Puetz... the difference being that you predict these big "down" moves constantly, while they were actually basing their Bearish shift on genuine market fundamentals and world crises.

The only thing I can say to you Puetz....the only words of wisdon I can quote, are from the "Pop" writers largest and most ambitious work, "The Stand". Jusrtwo words from that work come to mind. Two words that were said over and over.......

"The MOON.... The MOON..... The MOON......"


(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:45 - ID#301318)
Government Food Hoarding?
In the past week I have learned of MRE stackpiling in a natural limestone cave
in the Kansas City Missouri area. A 4 month government ( don't know the
specific agency ) contract it would appear, that will result in excess of
35,000,000 MRE's having been stored in the cave. That's enough to feed
500,000 for 22 days roughly. Further, I have learned that, apparently, 23 VA
hospitals that are closed ( don't know where and don't know the names ) are
being converted into food storage facilities with all of the equipment having
been removed and a special coating being applied to the interior surfaces to
enhance storage life. Having said that, can anyone shed light on this activity?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:47 - ID#206235)
DOW will end the week higher than it began
To be fair, if we are going to be crticial of the methodology and predictions made by other's, we should offer up our own perspective.

At the end of the week, I made a lengthy post outlining why I believe the DOW will end this next week, higher than it began. I stand by that post, but will not redundantly repeat it here.

Gold will end the week a bit lower however.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:48 - ID#266105)
gold article

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:50 - ID#425381)
XAU options
Would like to ponder prices of medium term ( Dec '98 or so ) well out of the money calls on XAU index as of Friday close---perhaps for a resonable leveraged play on Gold equities at Tuesday opening.Does anyone know a website where such info available?Thank You

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:51 - ID#225283)
Y2k oj stop shops
I am thinking about funding a small business that would provide turnkey power solutions which would allow homes and small to mid-sized companies to operate off the grid using "Turboturbine" generation ( at a cost of lessthan what it would be to buy power of the grid ) and allow the sale of excess power back to the localpower company. The tech. is avail. now and I can obtain exclusive distr. rights for many parts of the US and the world. Anyone think this would be worth it?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:55 - ID#359316)
Upon the saying that my Verses were made by another
by Mrs. Anne Killigrew ( c.1660-1685 ) .
From Killigrew, Anne. Poems 1686. Facs. edn., ed. R. E. Morton.
Gainesville, Florida: Scholars, 1967. pp. 44-47.

Upon the saying that my VERSES were made by another.

NExt Heaven my Vows to thee ( O Sacred Muse! )
I offer'd up, nor didst thou them refuse.

O Queen of Verse, said I, if thou'lt inspire,
And warm my Soul with thy Poetique Fire,
No Love of Gold shall share with thee my Heart,
Or yet Ambition in my Brest have Part,
More Rich, more Noble I will ever hold
The Muses Laurel, than a Crown of Gold.
An Undivided Sacrifice I'le lay
Upon thine Altar, Soul and Body pay;
Thou shalt my Pleasure, my Employment be,
My All I'le make a Holocaust to thee...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:55 - ID#206235)
@ OldGold.......... Inflation / deflation
Greenspan made it clear in his Friday remarks that his thinking is shifting toward fear of deflation, and that he will not hesitate to lower rates and increase liquidity. This is one of the many reasons Puetz's crash predictions will once again prove faulty. As Mozel rightly pointed out earlier, margin call "Crash" selling has not ocurred on the order of magnitude Puetz keeps predictig every time there's a big down move in the DOW.

The Fed will inflate. AG and Rubin have no choice unless a drastic turnaround occurs in foreign markets. Japan is remaining intransigent and refuses to go along with their game plan. ( As you know they want Japan to be the one's to inflate, not us! Stubborn Japanese won't go along!!! )

Besides, considering our 5 trillion debt. what choice will the Govt. have than to eventualy inflate to reduce the ratio of debt to GNP? The budget "surplus" is nice and all, but even one who believes in the positive aspects of our economy, as I do, knows the "surplus" is a phony misnomer. When the debt continue to increase daily, and "surplus" budget numbers rely on the confiscation of SS dollars, there is no surplus.

( Note to politicians....we'd prefer honesty to BS in spite of what you may read about that father of all Liars, B.C.'s poll numbers )

In any case, inflate we will, good for Gold, and not any real viable alternatives.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 15:59 - ID#225283)
should be Y2k one stop shops

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:00 - ID#153110)
@PrivateInvestor @Old Gold
Private Investor: What fuel ?

Old Gold: Exactly how will USG reflate or inflate ? And will that not drap the economy to a halt ? And what will they do to escape stagflation this time ?

A spiral looks like a cycle from a certain perspective, but a spiral, unlike a cycle, has an endpoint.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:01 - ID#288295)
I think this is the site you are looking for.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:02 - ID#266105)
japanese pension liabilities

Bill El Zebub
(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:04 - ID#261352)
Is stagflation the boogaboo the fed fears most? If Greenspan starts dropping
rates will it only be a temporary fix while letting the genie out
and cause more longterm problems ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:06 - ID#29048)
Why do you think gold will end the week lower?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:06 - ID#206235)
401K Money, poured out of mutuals
One thing that many ultra bear theorists fail to understand, is that 401K and IRA investors, have as much clout in the market as the big fund managers these days.

And far from being single minded sheep, many of these folks became concerned about world economic conditions, a few weeks ago, before the current Russian market triggered downturn.

In fact, July and August both saw net outflows of dollars from mutual funds to money market funds, in 401K plans, IRA's and and other sources such as individual investment accounts. The folks who are risk aversive and want to protect their gains are already doing so. The folks who don't care because they buy the "In it for the long run no matter what", are going to ride out any downturns because they see their retirement fund as something they won't be accessing for decades ( when it will surely be much higher regardless of what the market does today ) .

A good case can be made for either position.

The case for an all out meltdown in U.S. Equities however ( a la Puetz ) is EXTREMELY weak given the continued strength of the U.S. economy, in virtually every area, other than a couple small sectors such as Semiconductor Equipment manufacturing.

The broad market lost 2 trillion in the past three weeks. Almost half the national debt! Is anyone panicking? If I was a Russian citizen I'd be panicky. it is apparent that the sky, is most certainly not falling anytime soon.

There are tens of billions of dollars waiting anxiously on the sidelines for good reasons to jump back into equities, There are more tens of millions in liquidity that the FED will start pumping into this market if they fear delfation, recession, or meltdown.

A "crash"??? It ain't gonna happen. A healthy bear market, much needed after the overinflated gains of 2 decades? It's already happening.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:08 - ID#153110)
@Cheering For Collapse::: The prospect of an end to seventy years of Socialist
Fraud before the nation is totally destroyed certainly lifts my hopes.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:10 - ID#29048)
sorry for the error

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:11 - ID#206235)
Mexico.... will back the PESO with Gold?
Mexico is apparently ready to consider partially backing their currency with Gold to stave off any major crises there , of the magnitude that has ocurred in Asia, and Russia.

Good for the U.S., good for Mexico ( since Mexico and Canada are our biggest trading partners ) .... and good for Gold & GoodBug thinkers....

No I havn't converted in the last 10 seconds to fiat currency hating. What's good for emerging third world nations with weak economies and shaky banking systems, is not necessarily what's good for the U.S. of A.

Incidentally, Mexico's banks have essentially "closed down" all lending until decisions are reached in how to stave off a crises.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:13 - ID#230244)
New gold forum,for all on a competitive site.
for your info.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:14 - ID#190411)
@ The mining expertise
I have received the usual quarterly reports. All refer to diminshed revenues because of low gold price, but all brag of substantially lowered costs.
Is there a mining engineer out there that follows this stuff? Are all of the mines highgrading?
What will this do to the shareholder value?
I don't want a mine that's burning its candle at both ends.
Is Agnico doing this?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:15 - ID#174103)
Old Gold
Any attempt by the US to reflate will be punished by bond-holders, who will drive long term interest rates through the roof, as will widespread selling of US treasuires by foreigners. I think AG recognizes this simple fact. Reflating will not buy any time, since trillions of dollars can be moved at the stroke of a keyboard.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:18 - ID#206235)
@ Mozel
Yes Mozel, fraud should be exposed, we agree. I don't like socialism either, ( one of the many reasons in my view that the "Euro" will be no major threat to the U.S. dollar, most of those nations are more socialist than we are... )

But, unlike many here, I do not consider ALL systems of fiat currency as inherently fraudulent. The fact that they aren't directly backed by an intrinsic value metal, does not mean they aren't backed by intrisic value.

The U.S. system, with it's flaws, has nevertheless achived the greatest prosperity for the greatest number, for the most sustained perios of time, and allowed the greatest breakthroughs in technology, science, medicine, and even social justice across the spectrum. That and our system of Govt. ( and abundant natural resources ) , are two of the major reasons this has been achieved.

Societal breakdown, market meltdown, anarachy, etc. etc. that SOME GoldBugs seem to cheer for, will not reslut in a "Better", or more "Moral" or more "Just" economic system. It'll be quite the opposite.

We have the worst economic system and policies in the world... except for all the others.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:19 - ID#153110)
@The Global Criminal LGB System Is Headed For The Crapper
"the trigger that strips Japan of its triple-A sovereign credit rating within the next month." Unfunded Pension Liabilities.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:21 - ID#34191)
fiat currency?
Would someone please explain to me what that is? Thanks.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:21 - ID#153110)
@BugAll We don't agree. You want to expose. I want to hang criminals.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:25 - ID#242325)
Mozel: Reflating is the easist thing in the world. All the Fed has to do is start purchasing Treaaury securities in a big way for its own account. They can slash the discout and fed fund rates. These were around 3% in 1993. They can ease commercial bank reserve requirements. They can inforamlly guarantee enough liquidity to bail out troubled banks or brokerages. The President and Congress can slash taxes and/or hike spending. The easist thing in the world IF THE POLITICAL WILL EXISTS.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:25 - ID#190411)
Are you as terrified as I am about the pending government shutdown?
I caught some of the news last night, and the newsies/gommint are trying to scare the populace with their irrational BuGaboo about the end of their civilisation.
Amid the unrelenting bad news spewing forth from the official organs, I was relieved to get a bit of happy news.
Cheer up, the Italians have shown us that jailing the bereauacracy is not as painful as the leviathan says.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:26 - ID#242325)
Mozel: Reflating is the easist thing in the world. All the Fed has to do is start purchasing Treaaury securities in a big way for its own account. They can slash the discout and fed fund rates. These were around 3% in 1993. They can ease commercial bank reserve requirements. They can inforamlly guarantee enough liquidity to bail out troubled banks or brokerages. The President and Congress can slash taxes and/or hike spending. The easist thing in the world IF THE POLITICAL WILL EXISTS.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:30 - ID#242325)
PDEEP: If the US reflates all the others will reflate also. They certainly do not want to do this, but if faced with a choice of reflation or depression they will opt for reflation. Perhaps not all out reflation, but measured reflation certainly.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:30 - ID#432112)
Grasshopper seeks Master to assist with graduate econometrics homework project.
I need access to various data ( POG, Yen, $ etc ) to regress 30 data points & evaluate. Any URL's?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:34 - ID#432112)
@ Cowgirl - Is that a loaded question?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:35 - ID#206235)
U.S. dollar..... "fiat" currency?
What constitutes intrisic value? Are there are intrinsic values backing the dollar?

What about the U.S. Constitution? The Bill of Rights? One of the better regulated ( not the best ) banking systems in the world?

How about the highest productivity worker worldwide? Abundant natural resources? An economic system that allows enterpreneurs to borrow and build the greatest electronic hardware and software industry in the world?

What about an industrial infrastructure second to none? A diverse economic base that does NOT rely heavily on exports and imports?

What about a business base with profitability that has steadily increased for decades? And shows incredible health even in the face of worldwide economic calamity?

How about the strongest military? The most advanced space program? The best medical treatments ( though yes they aren't avaliable to all a la socilaism ) .

Or could it be that in spite of racist problems, we also have one of the most successful "melting pots" of literally dozens of different cultures and races, without the threat of any "Bosnia" breakdown?

Does the culture count for anything. Democracy? The vote? The strengths upon which the world's most sucessful political and economic experiment were founded?

Do any of these things have "intrinsic" value? I say they do.

Of course the U.S. ALSO has the world's biggest stockpile of Gold sitting in valuts.... and you don't hear the Treasury dept. making noises about selling it off.

"Fiat" currency? Maybe we have too much debt, maybe we've had trouble with inflation at times, maybe politicians are given a bit too much leeway over their budget number crunching lies... ( well, not just maybe )

But .... and it's a big but....... The U.S dollar is far from being "Unbacked" by anything of value.

I don't buy that, I never will. Not unless the U.S ceases to exists as an entity ( as the GoldBugs seem to desperatley their own self dsetructive peril ) .

Nothing "fiat" about it. The U.S. dollar is quite well backed with intrinsic value. That's why Russians hide the things under their matresses. ( Adn you don't see them converting those Greenbacks to Gold either ) .

The U.S. buck is an extremely efficient methode to exchaneg goods and services. So it will remain in the foreseeable future.

Neagtive Doomsayers notwithstanding.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:37 - ID#347235)
Thanks ERLE
I went back to that Sept. 5 post you found since I have some Barrick. Do you think the info could be correct?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:38 - ID#432112)
US $ is "fiat" currency cuz US Gunz sez it iz...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:39 - ID#225283)

System can be set up with any "clean burning fuel"...natural gas, meth...etc.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:40 - ID#401183)
Great market update post! Thanks for your insight!
We are truly living in interesting times!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:42 - ID#206235)
Re your question on Govts' shutting down. Like Mozel, I don't like Govt. and don't want a "Big Daddy" watching over me.

Unlike Mozel, I'm not an anarchist. Without Govt., sociteal breakdown, chaos, starvation, and unbridled crime is assured, not to mention the complete breakdown of morals, or restraint.

Just look at any society where the Govt. has ceased to meaningfully exist.

I like the least Govt, possible, that can still achieve justice, rule of law, and economic opportunity for all. Or at least take a good stab at it. The U.S. system of Govt. does this, in spite of it's flaws. Better than elsewhere. I saw this not to be a U.S. o phile, but because it is fact and true.

Yes I would be fearful if I thought some Anarchists could suceed in overthrowing it. I'm independant. I keep guns in my house, I hope to never see the day when they might need to be used.

I don't cheer for the collapse of all that's good in this world. I don't respect those who do.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:45 - ID#206235)
@ Mozel
You said "You want to expose, I want to hang criminals"

Listen, if we could just start with Bill C. I'm with you all the way!!!


(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:48 - ID#174103)
Old Gold
Printing money tends to raise the ire of creditors, no matter which country's paper they hold. If you are right, then long term interest rates for paper of all countries pursuing a reflationary policy will increase. In any case, the net result is not a decrease in long-term interest rates. The risk for being a creditor will have increased, and the risk premium will be mirrored in interest rates.

All of which, BTW, would be extrememly positive for gold.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 16:58 - ID#153110)
@Bugall You labelled me an anarchist. I dispute that.
End of discussion.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:00 - ID#270101)
@I think all your
trendy forecast are to the MOOOOOOOOOOOOON, because these are not normal times or events and you will not see them responded to with the normal or
the usual means....deperate times cal for desperate measure.....silly boys and girls....... LOL....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:01 - ID#190411)
LGB, neither mozel, or myself are anachists
It seems that you are. You acquiese to the gommint claimed powers.

Yet you dismiss our constitution. It suits their purpose to forbid the constitutionally mandated use og lawful money.

You say that it's OK with you. Well, speak for yourself. You haven't the right to dispense with our contract for government. They have usurped any authority that they were forbidden.

As for your fiat money, see the official site of the treasury department.

Go to Legal Tender Status, and click Federal Reserve Notes.

Then perhaps you can tell me how this squares with the Constitution of The United States.

"Federal Reserve Notes are not redeemable in gold, silver, or any other commodity, and in fact have no backing by anything."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:04 - ID#190411)
read anarchists

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:05 - ID#153110)
@Old Gold The only two of your reflation prescriptions which will do
anything but reflate the banking system are decrease taxes and increase government spending. I am sure there is political will for increasing spending.

Your plan sounds like Brazilian economics 101 to me.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:19 - ID#225283)

that should get you started...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:21 - ID#153110)
@Flash USG will starve you to preserve itself. It has operated on that principle
of implied power from the law of nations since the rogue Lincoln, a lawyer by trade. When it runs out of MRE's, it will come foraging just like it did in Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, etc.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:22 - ID#335379)
@PrivateInvestor, RE: Generators.
Hello Private I:
Email me at, msmith@HOT-LINK.COM
Don't forget the dash

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:41 - ID#190411)
As I have said to you before, I will say that you have been right in the past about your calls on the economy.
Sometimes you are too willing to use epithets to dismiss anyone that doesn't have your worldview.
I'm a rascist, because I do not want to give citizenship to newcomers that do not care about the philosophy of the founders of this country.
This is not an idea that is unique to the United States.
Look at the party structure forming around Legga Norde in Italy. ( Mostly libertarian ) .
Or Pauline Hanson in 'stralia. ( mostly nationalist/protectionist ) .
Some of the kictco posters from Canada have real concerns about the direction of lost freedoms.
The interventionist system, all over the world is questioned. They will not continue.
If you cannot see the "Balkanization" of society in your own area, California, then you haven't got your eyes open.
The fiat money is at the abyss now. ASB? No way.

I apologise for the lugubrious thingy.
Go Constitution, down with the usurpers.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:42 - ID#210420)

Fiat currency means that the only thing bACKING THE MONEY IS THE GOVT. FULL FAITH & "CREDIT" no gold backing it...just a promise that by law you will be able to convert it to another depreciating asset such as a small italian sports car ...oh London calling bbl

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:48 - ID#190411)
Check the URL that I listed in my reply previosly.
It is the straight poop from the treasury dept.
It is worth the read in that it states that the US gommint has first claim on all of the productive output of their slaves.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:50 - ID#270101)
@ I think there
are a lot more options than martial law Mozel, under the EO privilege that might come into play before Martial Law, and they have pretty much made protesting into a felony by calling them riots ( if any property damage is incurred ) , so the need for martial law will only come about,

IF THERE IS A NEED TO FORAGE..... and you really should examine all the EO options...because I am sure we will see some if things get worse....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 17:57 - ID#263254)
On your Mon Sep 07 1998 15:45 Government Food Hoarding posting. Could you
email more details of your source of info?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:08 - ID#280214)
BUGal - your arguments are well-reasoned and valid
There is much you write I agree with and I am enlightened by your posts. Keep up the good work and ignore the radical fringe for they constitute a threat as great as the those the rail against. They would replace an increasingly bad, oppressive system that at least works well with an even worse and more oppressive system that likely won't work at all. We need only look to some third world examples to see what they would do if they came into power. As much as they rant about "constitution" and "fiat" and "rights" - what they want is their own POWER to establish their own rules by which to oppress those who disagree with them.
Perhaps we may be forced to trim our government or Y2Kaos will trim it for us.
Then we can re-establish a simple government along the lines you indicate. I see one major role for a national government - defense against exterior threats. The rest we can take care of ourselves - at a community level. There may be a need for a judicial system to resolve disputes between communities, states and regions. Lastly, the national government should foster a common monetary standard - Gold - and otherwise stay out of further monetary manipulations. That is it.

But the radical fringe will not stop at those three roles. I see them becoming as bad as third world dictatorships with mass graves and jackbooted thugs knocking on doors at midnight to persecute those who speak out against them. Y2Kaos, unfortunately, may offer them a chance to flex their muscles. We must thus be forced to guard against even more threats to our freedoms than just general anarchy or government oppression.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:08 - ID#295111)

Thx, for the replies. I checked out this Saturday's post by @The Hatt.

Here's my comments it about the "hedge" buyback rumor at ABX.

As you know, ABX can sell millions of AU oz's at about $400/oz via their hedge program.

ABX has structered their hedge in such a way that if the POG increases beyond the $425, ( "the hedge price" ) , then ABX has the right to sell AU at the higher price.


SO, the only good reason to buyback the hedge would be to use the cash to buy up some gold company OR to buy back shares. It's one or the other.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:10 - ID#43349)
From left field
Crises soon to be averted?

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:19 - ID#295111)
More on ABX Share Buyback
ABX said it would buyback up to 10% of the shares outstanding.

ABX has 375,500,000 shares O/S. 10% of it is 37,550,000. AT 15$/shr
that amounts to $563,250,000.

That kind of money can only be logically raised by buying back their hedge!

So, maybe @The Hatt is onto something here.

( Personally, if ABX buys back their hedge, I think most of the money will go to buy back shares. I can't see ABX risking their cash to buy out some other company at what is usually a hefty premium )

We'll just have to wait and see.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:23 - ID#295111)
@The Hatt... Thx

Thanks for your ABX post ( s ) and all your posts. I like what you say. Please post more insider info as you get it.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:25 - ID#153110)
@Dave When Congress is legislating under its War Powers, that is martial.
Whenever Congress ( or a State Legislature ) includes the words "and for other purposes" in the title of a bill, it is legislating from war powers. They have restructured the government at the State and federal levels into Socialist International Law ( Law of Nations ) Republics, replacing the Christian common-law Republics of the founding. It's a martial law government now from bottom to top. Are there not armed people in uniforms occupying your town or city ? Do they not have military patches on their shoulders ( US Flag ) denoting the force of which they are a member ? Do they not arrest for "offenses against the Law of Nations" ? ( Look in the Constitution for the phrase. ) Are not offenses and infractions terms of military justice ? Crimes are indicted at common-law. Offenses and infractions are tried by martial tribunals. The country is administered by regions ( Federal Reserve, Social Security, Zip Code, etc., etc. ) by the conqueror. Constitutionally, according to the Supreme Court. And State government is merely a puppet facade subsisting on the military scrip of the conqueror instead of being paid tax in gold and silver coin by the people as the Constitution requires.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:28 - ID#280214)
There is a positive definition of anarchy.
An absence of government, individuals who do not recognize authority for its own sake but who forever question it - whether it comes in the form of family, neighborhood customs or cultural mores, libertarians.
In that sense
if someone calls me an anarchist - I shall say "Thank You".

In my last post I do NOT defend our current federal or state or even local governments. {Note: I did not call the latter "community" governments.} They have gone too far, way too far in their intrusion into individual and community affairs and liberties.

One other note: we must be wary of critics who read into other's posts that which was not written or intended. It has been a problem before with critics of my posts. When I read their "rebuttals" I often wondered whose post they were responding to because what I wrote did not match what they said I wrote. Maybe they were seeing demons in their own mind. Some of their demons are real enough - but let's be clear as to whom or what we are taking issue with and not append more to an author's writing than what the author wrote. Otherwise the discussion will remind me of philosopy classes where the PhD disects an author's work and espouses a criticism of it which is so removed from the original work as to be unrecognizable as associated with that work.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:35 - ID#286284)
Two recent pieces from Prof. MoneyPrinter

Like Krugman or not, he's one of the few guys who gets on CNBC and says: "Let's print!" Two recent pieces below.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:36 - ID#248170)
Next question
Dear Bill,

Did you inhale ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:37 - ID#219363)
US Markets
Rally ? It'd be about time. Last week I bought CCI ( Citicorp ) puts planning to hold them through the rally, but then CCI tanked so hard I went ahead and sold them and took the profit. I'm no longer holding any put options, and I'm glad to see this rally is finally getting ready to take off. Hopefully it'll be a strong one, even tempting some folks to believe that it'll go all the way through previous highs to the heavens. I will, of course, be re-purchasing my put options as it becomes more and more "absurd" to be thinking they'll ever pay off. I worry when my broker thinks I'm doing the smart thing, and he executed my "buys" last week on CCI without even blinking, so I knew I needed to get out quick. I'm betting after a good bunch of up days he'll be, once again, thinking that I'm throwing money out the window when I see him next. It's happy happy joy joy time for all the folks who stayed the course, and buy buy buy time for people who have been looking to get into the market and were waiting for a "discount bargain basement" window. Buy'em up folks. Come to Envy.

The Hatt
(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:37 - ID#294232)
Tantalus Rex/ Re:ABX and the proposal to unwind hedge position!
Appreciate your imput but I have to disagree with you regarding your comment that it would not make sense for them! The missing ingredient here that you have not considered is the exchange rate on currencies! A one billion dollar gain would put the Company in a very favorable position ( most likely for a takeover on a low cost producer ) ( with no premium what so ever! ) Keep in mind a decision has not been made but is being considered. I believe that the decision to unwind makes much sense and we will see it executed shortly..... Consider the outcome should the USD continue to pull back here! This move in a rising gold market combined with a depreciating dollar is difficult to ignor. I guess time will tell.....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:39 - ID#286284)
Whoa - I am now Sam (not Sam_A!)

Haven't posted in awhile and just put something up only to find that my much beloved moniker - sam__a - is no longer. I am now Sam. But there is another Sam here; what will he post under? V. Confused.

Sam ( formerlly sam__a. )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:40 - ID#255190)
Cowgirl @fiatcurrency

Fiat - a decree or dictatorial order by a person or group having complete authority.

Currency - that which is current as a medium or exchange, the money in actual usage, coin or paper.

"This here plug coin an' paper dollar is 'money' 'cause I say so an' there ain't nothing you can do about it. You gotta take it as money and give it if'n you're asked fer money. Its the only legal tender for debts public or private."
- Uncle Sam

'Full faith and credit', etc.

Read all above as 'no intrinsic value'.

LGB/BuGaL's comments not withstanding, the US Dollar is just as fiat as the Peruvian Peso or the Russian Rouble. The only reason its used internationally is that we are a decent credit risk compared to many. Our economy is now 75% 'service sector'. This is a highly shrink-able sector: very easy to simply fire people as needed. Our economy is 2/3rds consumer spending. Pretty easily scuttled by bad times. Our debt is very large and our savings is virtually non-existent.

If we ever hit a situation where the economy tanked, people lost jobs, bancrupcies skyrocketed then consumer spending will die outright. Then we must confront a merciless debt situation with little in savings. It could be that in a year's time we could go from being the envy of the nations to being a byword among the nations.

'Full faith and credit of the American government' will meet ridicule and strataspheric bond rates as people flee US$ denominated anything.

Paper is paper. Fiat is fiat. It wors when it works. And when it don't work .. ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:41 - ID#258195)
Valuing gold independent of any fiat currency
Goldilocks - thank you for your 12:48 today. I can certainly post the Dabchick Gold Index figures here every week if you like. It will be a pleasure to do so each Saturday if that is a convenient day, say at about 10:00 am Kitco time.

Cowgirl - I imagine you have had ample response to your query as to a "fiat" currency. Most of us ( pace BuGaL ) don't seem to like them once we what they are and how they can undermine society.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:45 - ID#287114)
I too have noticed that many posters cannot respond to what is written, however, they are quite vocal about what they seem to think it says. The actual words and meaning thereof mean absolutely nothing. This must be a product of our left wing "protect little Johnny" education system. But yet, these "wizards" of the financial world are responding to how the economic conditions and world economics should be handled. I think while they are gathered around their campfire, arguing amoung themselves about which gun would be best to defend themselves, I will take my trusty B-52 bomber and bomb them, and then steal their gold.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:47 - ID#386245)
Cowgirl - 'fiat currency'
The kind of money you use to buy an Italian sports car.

Hoosier Gold Bug
(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:47 - ID#401116)
Yen Carry Trade
Mr. Puetz, you make reference to the unwinding of the Yen / US Tres. note carry trade. We are seeing a dramatic increase in the value of the Yen that sure looks like the reversal of these trades. If so, then any URLs that we could look at tonight that show the result of the US Tres. notes being sold ??? I would expect a junp up in the 1 year through 5 year interest rates...

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:52 - ID#288295)

Now at Vronsky's site, in similar format to Kitco.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 18:58 - ID#280214)
Flash - your 15:45 portends a dire future
It also reminds me of the movie DEEP IMPACT which, in turn, stuck me to the core with the overwhelming message or feeling that WE ARE BEING PREPARED to accept martial law, relocation and to be less inclined to panic due to ignorance. What better way to gradually enlighten the masses than through a careful sequence of disaster or apocalypse movies which become incredibily popular - such that they are seen by most of the population. DEEP IMPACT was technically pretty good and it had a plausible story. {Armageddon was a waste of money to those of us with a intellect critical of both its plot and its technical faults}.

I must recommend a book I am reading: AFTERMATH by Charles Sheffield.
As I go through it chapter by chapter, the parallels with Y2K, microchip failures and subsequent global infrastructure failures, and even the Presidency are amazing. By publishing it this year, the author has had the opportunity to do his usual impressive translation of current events and research into a plausible future scenario. It is a MUST READ for those of us preparing for Y2K and/or an apocalypse. Awesome and scary.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:01 - ID#34191)
Nick: Everybody likes a little A**, nobody likes a smart A** !
LOL :- )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:01 - ID#153110)
@Anybody who missed skinny's latest post needs to read it and burn the message into
permanent memory, for it is bottom line.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:05 - ID#430236)
Barrick --- Bre-x
May be Barrick needs some cash,... not to buy a company or to buy back 10% of its shares, but to hire big time lawyers reagarding the Bre-X "cover up"???
Then again, who am I to know...
Go gold.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:07 - ID#208393)
Oldman's comments - always worthy of a repost
Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 21:06
Oldman ( Now is the time for all good men to.............. )
I am soul brother to all goldbugs. I have tried to help as
many of you as possible to conserve some $$$ to use when
gold/PM investing once again made sense. The mighty US$
died this week. What this portends for gold/PM investors
should be obvious. I am long gold stocks. Will look for
them to lead the metal for a few weeks. If this happens, I'll
be heavily into the sector by winter. Good luck. Good

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:07 - ID#287114)

When you show up at the car dealership to buy that fancy, top of the line, fully loaded Italian sportscar, if you have enough money in your right hand in Fiat currency, and equal value of gold in your left hand, which hand will the dealer pick?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:13 - ID#280214)
skinny - If I am guilty of what I accuse others of, please tell me.
B52's eh! Did you know that B52s, SR71 "Blackbirds" and their brethren from the 1950's and early 1960's are Y2K compliant - at least for their basic systems {their recent electronic additions won't be}. Whatever happened to the B58 Hustler featured in "Fail Safe"? All these aircraft are mothballed in some desert landing field. These old warhorses could be called into duty when the young whippersnappers fail after Y2K.

The book AFTERMATH uses the example of old "Sea Stallions" recalled into duty after the new electronic wonders are grounded. It also uses the example of Congress's reluctance to impeach Nixon until after Agnew was removed because Agnew was unacceptable as a President. The parallel with Clinton/Gore is striking. We must rid ourselves of Gore first - but that raises the spectre of a Clinton appointment, though thankfully it would have to be approved by Congress.

Though not a wannabe financial wizard, I may be sitting around that campfire discussing the pros and cons of different weapons. Maybe I should burrow deeper, but getting deep enough to hide from B52's will be impossible, especially since the old nuke bombs are likely Y2K compliant too.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:14 - ID#253153)
Mozel---Regarding your question--How the US debt is to be refinance
I believe that sometimes between 2000-2004 the US government will be able to refinance all of it's debt ( short term as well as long term ) at very low interest rates. The money will come primarily from an army of domestic investors. You may not know it, but in the thirties bankers were paying 1/4 per cent to but ninety day treasuries in order to have some place to hold money. Nobody's credit was very good. Everyone wanted safe capital, there was no business expansion .

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:14 - ID#261304)

Ok guys & gals I cant take it any more...I'm gonna get me some options
on ABX at the open tues.....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:18 - ID#280214)
pot calling the kettle black
The best way to get somebody's attention regarding their behavior is to emulate their behavior. Though that does not often work - "best" does not necessarily mean successful.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:18 - ID#295111)
@The Hatt
Ok... the exchange rate is another factor to consider. But I think we agree that it only makes sense to buy back the hedge if you need the cash.

In order to buy out a low cost producer, you obviously need the cash. But I found that before a company actually goes out and makes a hostile bid, it talks/negotiates with the target company in question SECRETLY and VERY SECRETLY!! If they do not reach an agreement in principle, then the hostile bid gets announced.

SO, WHAT COMPANY IS ABX INTERESTED IN??? That info is worth more than 100 times the ABX buying back it's hedge info.

I think we disagree on what ABX would do with the profit from the hedge. I say they will buy shares in stead cause...

1. It's less risky than buying out another gold miner. ( A merge makes better sense than a buyout )

2. With the large ABX short position outstanding, a share buyback puts tremendous pressure on the guys shorting the stock to cover cause the guys who sold out to ABX on the buyback are gone. The remaining players holding ABX shares are long term investors and not likely to sell. Conclusion. ABX shares skyrocket. Now when you consider the POG moving up at the same time, ABX goes up even more.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:20 - ID#253153)
Mozel---Oops, I meant to say, to buy treasury bills

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:20 - ID#261304)

Just traded @$291.20...up $1.10...
maybe a good nite??

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:25 - ID#295111)
@Gaston2, Re: Bre-X

I can't see Bre-X shareholders getting anything out of Barrick simply cause most of the guys who lost most money in Bre-X were the small guys.

Now if CB's had owned Bre-X, that's a different story.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:25 - ID#421269)
Gold up a buck ten cents

+ 1.10

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:25 - ID#219363)
Bought some more Gold coins on Friday. They're pretty. And cheap.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:28 - ID#343259)
to all wishing to buy ABX: I planted the bigge wet kiss o' death on them Friday, sorry ( bought some, can only spell disaster if word gets out ) .
I was an early Arequipa shareholder and had to admire how descisive ABX was in taking them over, they got a great deal.

Where can I get non-kitco au quotes from Oz and Hong Kong? TIA

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:28 - ID#401460)
Yen & Gold
Yen ( IMM ) ( Globex )
9/7/98 16:04 76.10
Gold ( CMX )
9/7/98 16:04 291.40 291.00


(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:33 - ID#219363)
Also - when I was purchasing more coins, the broker's position had changed. Normally ( in the past few months ) , the broker ordered coins when you purchased them, now he has them sitting in a pile with a price tag on them in the display case. Broker said they couldn't keep them in stock, that people were buying them hand-over-fist in large quantities. Guy who owns the shop said he sees a turn around for Gold in the cards and he didn't mind holding them in stock now. He said the down-side was very limited. On past visits, this particular broker had all sorts of Gold coins from various different countries ( Aussie, China, etc ) , but he was out of everything but 1oz golden eagles, and he only had six of them in stock ( more on order ) . Said he had a pile of fifty coins on Thursday and that it had only taken a day to dump them.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:33 - ID#295111)
CNBC Spinners
I was watching a bit of CNBC today. They call it bargain hunting, the top 100 companies.

I didn't see it all, but there was not a mention of gold/gold stocks.

Which can mean that the 'smart' guys are buying the gold/gold stocks hoping the 'dumb' ones sell off their gold/gold stocks. That's why "THEY" muffle ANY gold noise.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:35 - ID#153110)
Well, let's see. Who will have that kind of money ? Corporations ? Consumers ? The very, very rich ?

They could compel you to buy a bond with the proceeds of a Master Card Loan, coudn't they ? They could cancel the bankruptcy law for indiviudals and charge the bond to you automatically via your Master Credit Account. Then, the debt is your personal problem, I guess.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:37 - ID#295111)
CIAO guys/gals, am signing off for today

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:41 - ID#235295)
Agee with ENVY's 19:33 post...I see little downside risk in owning gold coins or gold stocks. The worm has turned.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:42 - ID#253153)
Mozel---The buyers will be bankers, insurance companies, pension funds
trust funds, existing domestic bond holders, bond funds, etc. The US can't and will not default on it's debt. If they did, they will never be able to sell another bond.

Ronald Jett
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:45 - ID#411102)
london gold p.m.
TV reported this morning that London Gold was up $14.85 -- I can find no mention of this at Kitco or Yahoo. Is there any truth to this? Did London trade today? many thanks for some information -

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:46 - ID#344207)
Does anybody know what silver is currently trading at?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:48 - ID#288295)

Or, they could force the 401 ( k ) pool to buy treasuries.

The Hatt
(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:49 - ID#294232)
Tantalus Rex /// I sent in an email to CNBC today with three questions!
A ) Has Cohen been buying or selling stock from her personal portfolio?
B ) XAU index up over 20% last week why have they not mentioned it?
C ) Have they been instructed not to report on Gold? By whom?
D ) What percentage of fund managers are fully invested in thier own funds?
E ) How many financial institutions have derivitives risk that exceeds their total equity?
F ) Why are the banks spinning their losses re Russia?

Needless to say none of the talking heads would discuss these questions.. Have maintained for sometime now that it would not surprise me to see a class action lawsuit against these glorified Dow Promoters!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:52 - ID#153110)
Quite so. If they lost that power to borrow, that would prevent them from indebting the unborn in order to have credits to give away to friends and family today, wouldn't it ? So, it follows that they will seize anything they want to to make certain the debt is not in default.

But, what I don't understand is what will limit their borrowing ? What will prevent the complete ruin of the nation from borrowing ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:53 - ID#401460)

Gold ( CMX )


(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:57 - ID#253246)
@Hatt***you could call it Newrrick or Barrmont it doesn't matter to me
Its time for Munk to step aside, a little merger between Newmont &
Barrick would be the quickest way to become the worlds largest
gold producer. The cost savings from combining these two producers
would be realized rather quickly due to the fact that they both operate in
Neveda & South America. Of course they may want reel in that hedge before doing this.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 19:58 - ID#430221)
@ Dabchick - Many thanks for your kindness
in accepting my suggestion that you post your Dabchick Gold Index each Saturday at 10:00 AM. I'll look forward to that.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:02 - ID#45173)
Castro's meeting with Cardoso was to exchange views on how Brazil can deal with an economy that's bust from time to time... just like Cuba is busted all the time.

Speaking of Brazil, I have meeting tomorrow with Brazilians. Great folks. Looking forward to it. But what's for dinner? Last time I went there twas all hard metal and techno, music-wise.

Didn't the 1880's trust fund bubble pop with a Brazilian loan default? Market manias have a long, dark history with South America.

Suckers' rally begins this week or does the sudden rising of "foreign" markets mark the start of the flow of un-flight capital.

Step right up, Lady's and Gen'leman. Get yer equities here! Everyone's a winner!

The sheep shall be shorn shortly.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:06 - ID#401237)
S & P
S & P 500 ( CME ) ( Globex )


(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:12 - ID#226273)
Spot gold UUUUUP in Europe! $6 to $10 up!

A little panic perhaps due tomorrow on COMEX?

Didn't market "pros" ( Oldman ) predict gold down and market up tomorrow?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:12 - ID#340262)

In the last 3 -4 months it seemed that the only path for gold stocks
was down. No matter what the dow did - gold only went down.
Hopefully this pattern has reversed itself - time will tell.

It seems that Asian markets are now quite rigged and liquidity has
suffered as a result - if problems occur in European or US markets
the results in Asia could be magnified substantially.

We will all be watching this Asian Wonderland were stocks will only
rise under the direction and guidance of there benevolent leaders -
like an ever growing soap bubble. And all will live happily ever after.
No more short selling or big bad speculators to gum up the works.

In light of these events gold will be looking better to more and more
people as each day passes. Note the busy shoppers in Moscow -
buying anything before the currency depreciates, I noted in one film clip
one shopper had imported gourmet chocolate bars stuffing her shopping
cart - at least she can enjoy eating them. - cjk

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:15 - ID#253153)
Mozel---Only a gold standard will prevent the politicians from borrowing
A gold standards, where gold coins ( legal tender ) are freely circulating and nations settle their balance of payments deficits by exchanging gold.
Of course, it will require a very high gold price, but it can be done by a stroke of a pen. I think a massive depression will force the politicians and CB to do that.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:17 - ID#386245)
Aussie gold index
up 2.72% in first 24 minutes of trading. Normany leading the volume for all Oz shares.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:17 - ID#293211)
RENO Declared Mentally ILL


Janet Reno "incapacitated"?

The Florida Bar

August 26, 1998

John B. Thompson, Attorney

August 25, 1998

John F. Harkness, Jr., Executive Director, The Florida Bar, Tallahassee, Florida

VIA FAX to 850-561-5826

Re: Incapacity of Janet Reno

Dear Mr. Harkness:

Pursuant to Florida Bar Rule 3-7.13, I hereby alert The Florida Bar that there is

reason to conclude that Janet Reno, a Florida-licensed attorney, is "incapable of

practicing law because of physical or mental illness." If true, she must be suspended

from the practice of law.

The factual basis for this complaint is to be found in the current September 7, 1998,

issue of Insight magazine. Having read the piece, I have spoken with the reporter

thereof, Jamie Dettmer, who spoke with multiple corroborating witnesses, including

long-time loyalists and admirers of Ms. Reno. They have concerns about her

"mental and physical condition" and strange behavior. Call him and talk to him at

202-636-8800. You'll be stunned.

As you will recall, I alerted The Bar to this incapacity of Ms. Reno quite sometime

ago. The Bar responded by completely ignoring what turns out to have been my

legitimate alarm, and you did so for reasons too embarrassing to you for me to relate


The result is that I have acted, demonstrably, in a more loving way toward Ms.

Reno than The Florida Bar has. Your organizational dithering has resulted in her

being the first Attorney General cited for contempt by a Congressional committee.

What a nice gift by The Florida Bar to her. You have enabled her professional

demise much as the First Lady has enabled her husband's self-destruction.

Reno is out of it, because of mental and physical incapacity, and you did not care

enough about her or the public to do anything about this tragic situation.

Please advise immediately that you have finally opened an investigation of this

matter, or else.


John B. Thompson, Florida Bar #231665


If you would like to add your "2 cents" go to the Bar's website and e-mail the folks there. Reports from Washington are

that Reno is mixing alcohol and Parkinson's disease pills to such an extent that she is

freaking out her own staff.

For more news go to: Directory of Press Releases

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:21 - ID#266105)

Thanks Nick@C. You still in Laverton?


(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:21 - ID#208393)
Last Gold spot I noted was 288.25.
If you look at the bottom of the MSNBC page you will see in fine print...
"Information last updated at 3:54 p.m. ET Friday, September 4, 1998" They
should have the date/time up front at the top of the page to avoid confusion. Your intention was good. As my favorite blackjack dealer says whenever I lose a side bet for the dealer..."Thanks for trying."

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:24 - ID#384350)
Ronald Jett - London PM fix
London afternoon fixing: $288.25 up $3.25.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:25 - ID#45173)
@All RE: Inflation/Deflation debate
The psychology of deflation is anti-consumerist: Wait. Do not buy now. It will be cheaper later.

The psychology of inflation is pro-consumerist: Don't wait. Buy it now. It will cost more later.

Consumerism is the cornerstone of Global Capitalism.

1 ) Once the psychology of deflation is in the hearts and minds of the populace, the government is powerless to control it. The money supply can be increased only by the easing of credit. In a deflation, no one wants debt at any price. In 1934, Swiss banks offered -100% interest rates. No one wants debt in a deflation. Only after the cycle of default completes does the cycle begin again, usually jump-started by an inflationary event, like a really big war.

2 ) If the psychology of inflation is still in place, easing credit increases the money supply. Buy now before it costs more. Buy that house. Buy that car. Buy that... gold? The debt is erroded away. Pfffffft.

By "jawboning" the weekend about interest rates the Fed has finally tipped its hand. Let there be INFLATION! No debt crisis, no deflationary depression.

I have taken my house off the market and bought more gold.

Now, goldbugs, if we're really lucky, here's what might happen.

At the end of every single mania -- tulips, investment trusts, equities -- ONE investment survives that becomes the SEED of the next MANIA. In the 1920s it was the open ended investment trust, aka the Mutual Fund, that became the mania favorite in the 1960s. The Money Market Fund survived the 1960 crash to mutate into the modern Equity Mutal Fund. If GOLD shines above all at the end of this mania bust, a GOLD mania will ensue.

Party for goldbugs.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:25 - ID#222167)
Yen Carry Trade
Hoosier: I have no direct knowledge of how large the yen
carry trade is. Anecdotal evidence from source such as
Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, and The Richebacher
Letter suggest that the carry trade is the largest of
all hedge-fund postions -- possibly into the hundreds of
billions of dollars.

Significant liquidation of the "carry trade" will result
in higher yields on 5-year notes all the way out to
30-year bonds. If Treasury yields rise while the economy
weakens, it's strong evidence that the "carry trade" is
being liquidated.


Steve Puetz

Ronald Jett
(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:32 - ID#411102)
Gianni Dioro - many thanks for helping with the quote. TV this a.m had ( Wall Street Journal Show ) had gold up 14 dollars. Dern if I understand how they could have let that out.

Thanks again

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:38 - ID#153110)
OK, so what you are saying is you expect them to set aside the martial law government that they have in place which is served by the slave labor of the people working for scrip and enforced by the godless in their B-52's and tanks and squad cars.

Why should they do that when they can just keep forcing the people to make advances to them in labor as measured by the military scrip and forcing them to pay tax so the new debt doesn't go into default ?

I don't think gold in international trade compels a government to release its people from a slave labor system. Do you expect Red China to also have gold circulating coin in the future ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:38 - ID#270101)
@ Mozel.....think about this and everything it means
To have the Rule of Law under our Constitution....should not each and every act of Congress have to withstand a Constitutional test.....before the Congressional Act could become......give you ythe Rule of Constitutional law.....but when Congressional Acts withstand not test...
and become Law......what does the Constitution have to do with anything....after all the Congressional act will be enforced until one of us proves it is not constitutional....and under the authority to pass and evoke any act into law... where does the Court circumscribe the limits of the Congress.....and the Constitution.....always on congresses side you too...... :- )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:39 - ID#153110)
OK, so what you are saying is you expect them to set aside the martial law government that they have in place which is served by the slave labor of the people working for scrip and enforced by the godless in their B-52's and tanks and squad cars.

Why should they do that when they can just keep forcing the people to make advances to them in labor as measured by the military scrip and forcing them to pay tax so the new debt doesn't go into default ?

I don't think gold in international trade compels a government to release its people from a slave labor system. Do you expect Red China to also have gold circulating coin in the future ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:39 - ID#242325)
Shepler still very bearish but starting to hedge A bit

for 9/8/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 9/4/98 close: 11.34

Return on current trade: 10.74%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 22.75%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -11.60%

Market Commentary:

The top headline in our local newspaper Monday morning was
"Greenspan Saves the Day". Maybe it should have read "Attention
Lemmings, It Is Now Safe to Resume Buying the Dips", that certainly
would have been more to the point. The Wall St. spin doctors are now out
in full force campaigning for a rate cut by the Fed, and claiming that
it will cure all of the global economic ills. Of course, this is a
dramatically oversimplified and just plain incorrect assessment of the
A Fed rate cut will do nothing to reverse the extreme overcapacity
problem facing the global economy. As a result it will do nothing to
stop the dangerous deflationary forces building worldwide. And last, but
not least it will do nothing to change the most important factor that is
driving the market lower, which is weak corporate earnings. According to
First Call, 3rd quarter earnings are expected to rise 2.1% over the year
earlier period, a weak number which we think still needs to be revised
downward between now and October. But the most bearish influence on the
market is likely to come from steep downward revisions to 4th quarter
and 1999 earnings, which are currently estimated at 11.9% and 18%
respectively. With all due respect, these estimates are a pipe dream.
And when these estimates are revised sharply downward in the coming
days, weeks, and months, the market is likely to come under steady
downward pressure. Rate cut or not, we still think the market is likely
to see Dow 5,000 before this year is out.
In addition, the bond market had already priced in a rate cut prior
to Greenspan's damage control, so it should have come as little
surprise. So, why all the sudden enthusiasm? We think it reeks of a bear
trap. There are plenty of shorts out there to squeeze, and the "bubble
boys" Greenspan and Rubin are sure to try and manipulate the market
higher in the short-term, sending bears into a short-covering frenzy
with a few well timed hints of monetary easing. But this is all a very
short-term phenomenon that will likely last no more than a few days at
best, and a few hours at least. So, our bearish outlook has not changed
over the intermediate-term nor the long-term. In the short-term,
however, we can expect a rally at least in the early part of the week.
Among the ominous signals for the bulls Friday, were new 52-week
lows for The NYSE Financials Index, and the Dow Transports. Within the
NYSE Financials, bellweather stock Merrill Lynch ( MER ) also hit a new
52-week low. That sure doesn't seem to us like the sort of thing that
happens prior to a big Wall St. rally. Also, a high closing TICK of +842
was recorded. These types of TICK readings are typically indicative of
strong resistance overhead. Also, the latest buy signal from our
proprietary buy/sell indicator terminated Friday.
On the positive side for bulls is that fact that breadth, while
negative, was much improved, and suggested a much stronger market than
the large intraday declines in the major averages would have suggested.
Decliners barely edged out advancers by a 1511 to 1466 margin. Also,
while new lows still trounced new highs, 383 to 12, the 383 new lows
were an improvement over the 461 seen Thursday. Also, the broader market
performed much better than the blue chips, with the Russell 2000 up
.15%, and the Value Line index up .23%, versus a .85% loss in the S&P
500 index.
Also, our proprietary buy/sell indicator is poised to give yet
another buy signal on the close this Tuesday. In addition, our prefered
wave count calls for a rally that could last into the mid to late part
of this week, and should reach at least 1010-20 SPX. If resistance at
1010-20 SPX does not hold the advance, then look for a move to the 200
day moving average at 1050 SPX. While we think chances of this are slim,
the market could make a run at the 50 day moving average at 1100 SPX if
1050 SPX is broken to the upside. However, at present, we expect 1010-20
SPX to hold, and to possibly be reached as early as Tuesday if a massive
short-covering rally materializes. If this happens the market could
stage a downside reversal as early as Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday
morning. If this happens it will be a total disaster for bulls. And a
subsequent drop below Friday's successful re-test at 956.51 SPX would
open the floodgates and precipitate an outright market crash. Therefore,
we are not likely to issue any switching signals until we see how
Tuesday's trading shapes up.
Short-term sentiment indicators are somewhat mixed. The Rydex ratio
soared to 192% Friday showing a large contingent of bears among fund
switchers. However, the OEX put/call ratio was far from an overly
bearish bias, with a neutral 1.17 reading. So, not much to be gleaned
from these readings. However, the latest investor's intelligence numbers
showed 43.2% bears versus 40.7% bulls, which is a somewhat hopeful sign
for bulls.
So, in short, we are skeptical of the Greenspan related euphoria
which will likely sweep over the market in the early going this week.
And we are on alert for a downside reversal at 1010-20 SPX which would
open the door to a crash scenario. However, we are also ready to react
if our initial overhead resistance is taken out to the upside. If it
looks like this short-term bear market rally is going to be stronger
than the recent dead-cat variety we have seen since the July highs, then
we will look to enter cash to preserve our recent Ursa profits. We will
be watching the early trading this week closely, and will notify
subscribers of any switching signals. For now we remain with our
profitable Ursa trade.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:40 - ID#208393)
@Ronald Jett
That $14 sounds like the gain for the week since$274.20 of Aug 28.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:40 - ID#261322)
Charles Keeling &TVX Lawsuit
This is an answer from September 5th posting-sorry it took so long. TVX was taken to court by a group ( 3 people I believe ) known as the Alpha Group. They claim that the Greek properties ( which are major for TVX ) are really theirs. They claim confidentiality was broken and that TVX wouldn't be there, or know how to get the gold out so cheaply if not for them, and that they were supposed to be in with TVX, but then got cut out. Well that agreement was dropped and over with. The Greek government wanted TVX in there. So Alpha decided to sue. I'm trying to condense this, it may sound a little simplistic but you get the idea I'm sure. The Alpha Group even hired the same lawyer that won the case against Lac Minerals, and although the circumstances were different, it's mentally a tad intimidating as a shareholder. Anyway, this thing was tried back in the winter. I've talked to various people at TVX ( they're Investor Relations people are great, and never once really felt fear that the suit will be settled in Alpha's favour. Eike Batista, who owns aprroximately 11% of the company hasn't sold a single share. The last time I spoke to someone was only a couple of weeks ago, and he felt that a slap on the wrist was the worst case scenario-i.e. that a fine might be imposed. From the types of questions that were asked at the trial, and the fact that another government actually put them there, how can a Canadian judge suddenly decide that the ownership is wrong. Personally, I figure they could just shut down operations here and set up in Greece anyways if they had to, so that's why it's not a huge risk. As of a week ago, I got an e-mail from TVX saying that the decision should be imminint-like Labour Day time. Anyhow, again I'm sure you get the idea, and if I've really mucked up any details, anyone please correct me.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:41 - ID#270101)
@ bye for a
while I got the rule of thunderbolts here for awhile........:- )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:45 - ID#386245)
G'day 2BRO2B
Yes, am back into Laverton ( LVG ) . Couldn't believe the prices for a small gold miner ( 90,000 oz/annum ) that has covered the downside with puts and has huge prospects upside.

Last week they were giving gold shares away with your corn flakes, so I maxed out again. Have sold most of my share related puts though as I expect a bounce. Have kept long-term market puts as insurance. I'm expecting gold shares to double by year end. We are more than 1/4 of the way there in the first week, so wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking. cheers, N.

Ronald Jett
(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:46 - ID#411102)
gold quote
kitkat... perhaps that's it. I sure thought that was rather wild. Wishful thinking. : )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:47 - ID#266105)


.........& thanx

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:53 - ID#45173)
Nikkei takin' off like a repurchased airline, over 15K
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:59PM 15069.48 +279.42 +1.89%

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:55 - ID#404410)
Dollar off of early lows vs. yen in early Japan trading.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 20:57 - ID#401460)

It's all over the friggen place again!
What is the real price of Gold?

September 07, 1998
8:13PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close
-1.00 -0.35%

Gold ( CMX )
9/7/98 17:44 290.70 290.30 f


(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:01 - ID#153110)
What will be the effect on the Rising Yen and the yen carry if the credit agencies downgrade Japan's sovereign debt ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:09 - ID#266105)

Textbook says higher interest rates for lower rated debt.

So all else being equal, carry trade less profitable.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:12 - ID#30126)
V O L A T I L I T Y ....
S&P UP 2000 on Globex and the NDX is up 3000. Amazing what the threat of 'easy' money can do.... and what it can't.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:23 - ID#30126)
Let's see if this works..

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:25 - ID#30126)
Wow! It seems to work.
It should be delayed GCZ8 quotes and chart.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:28 - ID#263254)
FLASH and all...don't you think it's a bit strange for the guvies to be
hoarding MRE's in a CAVE????? The problematic part to this is I

could believe this to be truth. BUT please, do not tell me they can't

find anywhere else to put the food. I wouldn't mind hearing educated

guesses on this one...Mozel, are you lurking?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:30 - ID#30126)
Now that 'Labor Day'
has come and gone, with summer doldrums gone, Friday's should be getting more interesting.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:30 - ID#225283)
Cowgirl --Fiat cont.
Fiat currency means paper money without any
set backing or tie. Perhaps a brief history
would be helpful for better understanding

The demise of circulating gold and silver
coinage in the modern world, and with it the
passing of precious-metal backing for
paper-currency, had actuallybegun early in
the century, during World War I. By the
outbreak of war in the summer of 1914 ,
nearly 60 nations--including most of
Europe--had adopted the gold standard.But the
unfettered circulation of gold among nations
and individuals, a basic tenet of the gold
standard, quickly became a casualty of the
War;enemies engaged in a battle to the death
naturally did not exchange gold.
Moreover,governments spurred by the fierce
demands of combat printed money as fast as
they could--regardless of the size of their
go;ld holdings. In all, the Great War cost
the participants $202 billion--far more than
their combined gold reserves could guarantee.
And by 1918, most of the world's nations had
determined to maintain those reserves by
withdrawing their gold coins from
circulation, banning private ownership of the
metal and hoarding bullion in central banks.

The U.S., late to enter the War, was the last
to engage in inflATIONARY wartime financing,
and the last to give up the gold standard. It
did so in 1917 and simultaneously clamped an
embargo on the export of American gold. With
pee, however , the United States and
severaother nations returned for a time to a
modified version of the gold standard.Many
governmentsbacked their paper money with a
combination of gold reserves and American
dollars, which had replaced the British pound
as the strongest currency in the world. But
rampant inflation and a worldwide economic
collapse ( much like today ) that began with
the Wall Street stock market crash of 1929
destroyed confidence in the American dollar.
As in troubled times throughout history ,
people put their faith in gold and rushed to
exchange paper currency for the gleaming
metal ( much like today ) . In the United States.
the run on gold became so frantic ( much like
we shallsoon see ) that President F.D.R. in
1933 prohibited the export and private
wnership of gold coins or bullion; futhermore
, citizens were required to turn in their
gold and gold-backed bank notes for paper
dollars ( fiat currency ) .The price of gold was
then set by federal fiat at $35 an ounce. By
these methods, and others applied to silver ,
the U.S. Treasury collected immense amounts
of precious metal. A special depository was
constructed at Fort Knox, Kentucky, while silver was stored in huge vaults at the West Point.

Immediately after WWII the US possessed about $23 billion in gold reserves, more than half the world's monetary supply,and the doolar was again used as backing for the paper money of other nations. But then, in the 1960's the dollar started to fade as the bulwark of of a stable economic order.As other nations gained economic strength, they began cashing in their dollars for gold.Within a few years the US reserve was reduced by half.The drain was so severe that in 1971 Nixon halted the international exchange of dollars for gold.

Then 3 years later ...the government once again allowed citizens to buy gold...Jan. 1 1975 price per 1/4 oz $52.79...the government severed monetary ties to gold forever and decreed that American citizens we once again free to own rose to nearly $200 an oz...and back down to $130 ...and as high approaching $700...and all points in between.

Therefore FIAT currency is a paper money declared by a Government to be legal tender not tied or exchangeable for precious metals.
I hope that helps...Good Luck...

Dive Dollar....Dive...Dive

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:31 - ID#263254)
Mozel, well sh*t, of course you are.
Excuse the oversight.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:32 - ID#253153)
Mozal---In deflation taxes will decline
Government reflation means reduction in federal taxes as well as state and local taxes. People will have to work much harder to earn a living ( assuming they have jobs ) . The easy days are gone. Unfortunately none of the above will matter. Lower interest rates in deflation don't stimulate the economy because when there is no business expansion, people will not borrow. Saving from tax reduction will be salted away and not spent because of the uncertainty. Japan is a prime example. No one is borrowing and extra income is saved.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:42 - ID#45173)
If one is certain of reflation
one takes out loans and buys gold. One pays back the debt in ever cheaper dollars on an asset that maintains buying power.

But if one is wrong and there's deflation... wups.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:43 - ID#373403)
Japan seems alright now
It must be South Korea's turn to bottom. Didn't Hong Kong just take it's turn?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:44 - ID#401460)
Take your pick.


December Gold

September 07, 1998
9:36PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close
-0.70 -0.24%

Gold ( CMX )
9/7/98 18:26 291.00 290.80 f


(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:45 - ID#259260)
@ Mozel......... Apology
Mozel, you rightly corrected me for labeling you an Anarchist. It was more meant in jest than as a pejorative.... But apologies to you and all if it came across as serious.

What would you call yourself if you had to label your political philosophy? Constitutionalist?

We need guy's like you to remind us of the evils of big government and remind us of why we should question everything they do, with a healthy skepticism.

That said though, I still believe we ought to respect the system and work within it. Though I'm a fiscal conservative, right wing Republican in most areas economic, ( yes I know a believer in the "Fiat" money system can't call tyemselves too conservative eh ) , I do believe SOME social programs have merit if managed properly.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:46 - ID#225283)

this is not new...since 1940's govt's have hoarded food this the shelf life nears x date mre's are liquidated and new rfp's are sent out and the low bidder replaces the old mre's with new.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:48 - ID#29048)
Good news from S.A.
S.Africa gold stocks sparkle on earnings outlook
09:12 a.m. Sep 07, 1998 Eastern

By Emelia Sithole

JOHANNESBURG, Sept 7 ( Reuters ) - South African gold shares moved sharply higher on Monday as analysts predicted a bull gold market before the end of the year amid expectations of a stellar performance by the industry
in the three months to the end of September.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:50 - ID#275194)
Gold opened $1.00 above the trendline connecting the lows of Jan. and June
. This is a breakout above the downtrend line ( Dec. Gold ) and now above the prvious lows. We may just have started a new Bull in gold!!!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:51 - ID#410194)
Question about the New Zealand crash

Is the crash that started in New Zealand yesterday still on course or has it ben cancelled?

It finished down 0.4% yesterday and it is currently up 1.8%.

Can you update us on what's hapenning? Thanks.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this "delusional" thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more "normal". They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:52 - ID#17077)
A Message to the Oldman...

...sir, you have provided sharp analysis in the past. I believe your recent intuitive gut feeling to sell into rallies
made compelling, rational sense. Now, solely upon the basis that Puetz is calling for market problems and that
Time Magazine featured a bear on its cover, you are now reversing your analysis.

IMHO, your latest analysis is a combination of second guessing yourself as well as Puetz-bashing. It seems more
emotional than calculating.

You should remember several things: just several months ago, NEWSWEEK featured a BULL on its cover. For
many market analysts, this fact augured the end of the Bull market. Yet, the bull continued on for some time before
halting in late July.

Now, the Time Warner organization, recognizing the contrarian nature of market investment psychology over this
past decade, has rushed out an issue with a Bear upon the cover. The company ( and maybe its Wall Street
associates ) may be hoping for a contrarian populist reaction as has oft been the case throughout the Nineties.

However, do you honestly believe that currently the majority of Americans believe we are in a bear? Based upon
recent polls ( 70% investors are still bulls ) , that is not the case. The average American investor has never been
more complacent. If anything, a Bear on the cover of Time magazine will not result in contrarian populist will only accelerate the deterioration of mass bullish enthusiasm.

Remember, sir, we are undergoing a mass psychological paradigm shift in this country. Such a shift should would
necessarily change the standard behavior of markets, from a predictable '90's manner of reaction into something
completely different.

My suspicion is that Time Warner's desperate attempt to instigate a contrarian market response is doomed to

The psychology of the market has shifted and only a handful of professionals would buy a market for any
sustained period of time upon the basis of a newsmagazine cover story...particularly one that is coming so close
upon the heels of another national magazine's BULL cover story.

Finally, I believe your over-the-top dislike for Puetz is coloring your analysis of this rapidly weakening market.
You must remember that Puetz's forecast of an October Crash last Oct., '97 was correct EXCEPT for the intrusion
of special goverment interests into the free markets. Therefore, it is inappropriate to denigrate the entirety of his
market analysis.

This time around, my sense is that government intrusion into the free market is coming too late. IMHO, a snowball
effect of deteriorating global psychology cannot be stemmed by the purchase of a billion dollars of S & P futures
in the morning. Nor do I believe speeding up the money printing presses is sufficient to halt the global loss of faith
in the American government ( thanks to Clinton ) and ergo, the American Dollar.

Accelerating the money presses will only hasten the stagflationary conditions developing around the world.

We have moved into full paradigm shift best exemplified by rising foreign markets occurring
SIMULTANEOUSLY with a falling US Dollar. This phenomenon does not suggest the return to global economic
stability. Rather, it suggests a hasty repatriation of foreign capital from America which augurs very badly for
domestic bond and stock markets here.

So, I think that, at best, you may get a half/one day rally from your TIME magazine effect....but rapidly evolving
bearish populist psychology should spin this bullishness around on a dime.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:52 - ID#275194)
Lets see if this one works. Chart is from Bohl & Associates

(Mon Sep 07 1998 21:56 - ID#17077)
Ooops...former message should read.....



(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:01 - ID#287114)

I got a chart here of charts that say they are past history and will not predict the future.
I was wrong only once in my life.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:05 - ID#147201)
mozel your 20:39
Thanx for this post. I have less faith than you in the USG setting aside martial law. Hopefully it won't happen, but that hope is as good as Clinton getting out of his problems, Charlie

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:07 - ID#401460)
Yahoo International News

Has anyone else noticed the change in news reports, check it out. One "Alert" after another.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:09 - ID#275194)
skinny; Simple technical analysis only. Only confirms, IMHO the other
pieces of the puzzle. Namely, Sentiment, declining dollar, elliot wave and global instability. But again, basic trendlines only.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:09 - ID#237299)
@Bingo, Private Investor- @caves,food

also 500,000,000 bbl oil in dolomite caves near the gulf of mexico
as our strategic oil reserve, and when we had the farm supports for
butter and milk- these were stored in salt caves- ( forget where, in the
mid-west? ) and NORAD is in a cave, etc etc. Caves are good, one entrance, easily defendable, stable temperature and humidity, hard to destroy ( or raid ) and *easy to hide the contents* from that pesky
public with its inquiring mind.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:15 - ID#287114)

Common sense does exist....Very much can be learned from history.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:17 - ID#153110)
I must presume that the power to borrow will be as unlimited for the future as it is today. So, likewise the power to spend And the power to tax to cover the interest for the borrowing. I wish somebody would tell me the limiting mechanism here because I can't find it.

Now, certain it is that the medical lobby will campaign for medical care for the destitute, the houseless, and the children of struggling parents; the government education lobby will campaign for more and better; and there will be more people in legal trouble than ever before since there are more statutes to offend against or violate, so there will be campaigning by the get tough on crime lobby for prisons and more enforcers on the streets; and defense has a perpetually strong spending lobby. I think demands for spending will be intense.

Given all these needs and no restraint on borrowing, how can you conclude taxes will go down ? The portion of tax to pay interest on the debt could go down if your debt refinance goes as planned or if forced loans are decreed as I suggested. But, won't that suck funds from the private to the public sector ? If fewer are employed, won't their taxes go up to carry the unemployed and make up their share of taxes ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:22 - ID#253153)
Just a reminder
We are in a Confirmed Dow Theory Primary Bear market. A secular bear market have just begun on Aug 4, 98. The bear will fool you first and then clobber you to death. All rallies are suspect and within the confines of a bear market. By default it means that we are in a gold bull market which begun on Sep 1, 98.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:23 - ID#17077)
One more cut and paste is not working properly...
Message should read:




(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:23 - ID#287114)

I have read where the Pioneer seed corn company stores seeds in abandoned salt mines. They state the temperature and humidity are constant and a seed will keep forever.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:23 - ID#147201)
High rise Alerts
Yeah! Some Bullshit and some harboring real info

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:26 - ID#153110)
@Bugall @chas
@Bugall It would be ungracious of me not to acknowledge your apology, so I will. But, I think it is fruitless to otherwise attempt to communicate.

@chas From your post, and like posts from others, it is painfully obvious to me that I have failed to convey the facts as I know them. And I can't fault the readers.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:29 - ID#186147)
realistic 21:51
If you're gonna take $$ out of the markets, you gotta find indicators that you have faith in. Simulataneous "Crash alerts" by Crawford and Puetz is as good as it gets.: )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:30 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- The limiting factor will be as has been seen elsewheres: Con game runs out of enough 'marks' it can con. THEN times get TOUGH!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:31 - ID#253153)
Mozel - In all the deflations ever experienced by various nations, taxes always declined
If taxes and government income will decline in deflation, government EXPENDITURES will also decline substantially. People will understand that the government does not have the money to spend and will learn to live without it. I know it sounds far fetch but history tells us that people would rather be poor but free and will adapt to new circustances. This was the case in the 30's and now it will repeat itself.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:34 - ID#147201)
mozel your 22:17
YOU damn right!! The limiting factor is the publics recognition that the FRN is becoming worthless. The reason ( long story ) is that they are aware of how much more it takes to buy a loaf of bread etc. I am confident that this public is more astute than most finacial analysis can comprehend. Try checking out some flea markets, the bigger the better. Joe Sixpak is not much on financial analysis, but he knows how much more he is ( or she is ) spending on groceries. The big break has not ocurred yet, but Joe is getting primed.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:38 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JP -- Very hungry people could give a damn about their freedom, or anybody elses freedom. They just want to free from hunger, at most any price.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:38 - ID#384350)
JP - Deflationary Times
Sure Tax Revenue declines, but Tax Rates rise. Soak the rich policies = shoot yourself in the foot!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:39 - ID#147201)
mozel your 22:26
You have not failed. Experience and comprehsion will grow your comments in the right direction.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:40 - ID#237299)
Mother Nature is a remarkable designer. I have personally dug up 800
to 1000 year old corn cobs in peublo ruins, planted the seed and grew
stalks of absolutely wonderful tiny blue corn.

Seed last an long time, regardless how you store them as long
as it's dry enough to suspend germination.

I wouldn't doubt they store seed in a cave, especially since we
allow them to patent genetic material. I believe the US has a seed
bank ( for the end of the world scenario ) in a cave somewhere.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:45 - ID#153110)
It is not clear to me sometimes when you say taxes will go down if you mean tax revenues or the demands for tax payments and amounts of payments.

In your last post you seem to say people will restrain themselves from using government to rob other people legally by taxation if times are tough. And you put forth the 30's as historical precedent. But, it seems to me the record shows the opposite from the 30's. Whole agencies were erected in Washingto just to to spend money on some people that had been taken by legal force from other people, more money was borrowed to spend than ever before in peacetime, and taxes went up.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:47 - ID#253153)
Eldorado--Yes, social shocks are to be expected
There will be many hungry people and we have temporary food riots, but overall , majority of the rich people will also become homeless so the poor won't be able to blame the rich. I think that the public may be sensing it already seeing the hedge funds and banks being clobbered.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:49 - ID#287114)

Yes..I understand there is a group trying to find seeds of days past.
Have you noticed the change in the flavour of tomatoes and strawberrys, they have been bred up to high production.
Wife who is far to young and must be obeyed has shut me down.
Talk to you later.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:53 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JP -- Blame? Doesn't matter if anybody place blame on anybody else. They just want FOOD, and they want/need it NOW! They'd willingly go into 'camps' if that is what were required to get fed!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:54 - ID#93241)
Noesis oil forecast
Sept 8, 1998

Crude Oil

The increase in the price of crude oil at the end of last week was most likely a result of speculation in the futures market reacting to various news stories about Nigerian and Russian production, and a meeting of OPEC leaders Monday. In the face of the speculation, postings for oil increased briefly. But, by late Friday, the short upward trend reversed and posted prices were reduced. Overall, the temporary increase of about $1.00 will help keep the average September price of crude oil in the range of $11.50 per barrel, which is very close to the current NOESIS forecast. For reasons explained below, U.S. demand for crude oil is likely to be soft this fall and unless there are intervening events, the price of crude oil will slide downward.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:55 - ID#253153)
Mozel--Let me clarify what I said
In deflation government revenues ( from taxes collected ) always decline because when people lose their jobs and businesses go bankrupt they can't pay any taxes. To make up for revenues shortages, the government will have to cut expenditures. Granted, new agencies and new work program will be created, but overall , government expenditures will decline for lack of money.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:57 - ID#43460)
Bingo, Private Investor is right
I just wonder what all the fuss is about? In the service in the 70's we were having to eat 15 year old C-rations. They were 'expending' them so they could switch over to MREs. I knew a bidder in the mid 80's who put in a ridiculously low bid and ended up with several truckloads of those crackers and protein candy they used to store in fall out shelters, nearly 25 years old. Don't know what he ever did with them.

Here is a quick reference as to shelf life. I can't vouch for accuracy. Needless to say the shelf life is far shorter than for gold coins. But a 50 degree cave makes sense when you read the table. Standard disclaimer applies.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 22:58 - ID#401460)
HK Gold
9/7/98 -- 9:52 PM

Gold in Hong Kong opens lower

HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $287.55 an ounce on Tuesday, down 40 cents from Monday's close of $287.95.


(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:00 - ID#43460)
JP, what do they do when the economy is imaginary in the first place?
I don't know what are the percentages but it seems that there are a lot of people on pension, welfare, food stamps, government workers and work in the service industry. I think we're safe as long as the one guy out there who is still turning wrenches for a living doesn't go on strike. ( %-^ ) )

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:00 - ID#34191)
Thanks for explaining the fiat..PrivateInvestor. A bolt of lightning
knocked out our power for a couple hours. Must be an omen.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:01 - ID#384350)
The Patenting of Food is immoral, illegal, and unjustifiable
Skinny, I think if you go to some backwards place like Greece, you can still find good tomatoes. They started messing with tomatoes to make the skin hard so that machines could pick them without damaging the goods. Does anyone know if "Beef Tomatoes" are called as such because they have had a bovine gene introduced?

As to Strawberries, the French are upset that their markets are being overrun with cheap strawberries from Spain that BTW taste like crap. I sometimes wonder if their is stealth distribution and cross-polination of Genetically-Modified produce throughout the world. One day Monsanto will come to your farm and say, "Oh fancy that, we have a patent on the food you're growing. Meet our lawyers. Cease and Desist."

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:02 - ID#252286)

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:04 - ID#153110)
@JP Until you show a limit on their power to borrow, I see no limit on their power to
spend. Economists say government expenditures are good for the economy; it counts in the GDP. I cannot see why spending should or must go down regardless of what happens in the economy. If you bring back bacon from Washington to your constituency, you get elected. If you don't, you don't. So, as your power to borrow is unlimited, you borrow to spend to get elected. Or you enact some kind of tax credit or tax break for those to whom a direct subsidy can't be enacted.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:06 - ID#284255)
Y2k survey - take it or read it.

G.North interview: with GN 07-17-98.htm

The big blackout?
Regardless of your own Y2K preparedness, the slow-moving electrical industry could leave you in the dark

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:06 - ID#252286)

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:10 - ID#384350)
JP - Spend then Tax to get FRN's out of Circulation
Govt spending is not at all dependent upon tax revenue. Tax revenue just limits the inflationary aspect of govt spending ( printing money + usury )

Taxes ( exactions ) also function as the transfer of property from the people to the elite ( Bronfman, Rockefeller, Clinton, Rothschild, and family, etc ) . It also keeps the proletariat class in constant state of servitude.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:11 - ID#45173)
Malaysia investors seem to be losing their enthusiasm for an isolated
government controlled economy.

Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 11:16PM 415.18 -29.88 -6.71%

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EJ -- What do you figure. A little irrational exuberance perhaps?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:17 - ID#429270)
Silver backing of US Dollar...(a slow down figure for cyberspace)
Earlier I quoted from the front of a 1923 silver certificate ( one dollar bill ) the famous words "this certifies that there has been deposited in the Treasury of THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ONE SILVER DOLLAR payable to the bearer on demand."

Taking figures from Barron's, if the US Government were to attempt to

keep this promise today, AND could purchase silver at an average price of $5/oz, it would require some 98 billion ounces of silver. Last year's total world usage of silver for the purpose of minting coins was about 25 million ounces. Moving at that snail's pace, it would take the government some 4000 years to produce a fully backed circulating dollar!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:18 - ID#346209)
Thanks for the info; I had been wondering why I disliked them for several
years. Nowadays, I don't eat tomatoes.

The 5.6 year XAU cycle is due to bottom 10/98 ( The last bottom was 4/93 )
I knew about this cycle in 1992, so was able to be 100% in the 1993 rally. We shall see. Disclaimer also. ( 5.6 = 5 years, 6 months ) Cheers

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:19 - ID#173274)
@the scene
golddkm -- A bonfire would act a whole lot quicker than that!

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:20 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro
How convenient to have to inflate to defend against possible deflation. How about a 20% annual inflation to pay to feed the hungry and to reduce the deficit at the same time. By 2004, the current $5T debt is half way paid off plus the new debt created with inflated $ pays for the financial industry bailout. If you gonna bail out Wall Street for lousy Mex investments, ya gotta pay off the boys for a few derivatives screwups, securitized mortgage mutual funds, more bad loans to Mex, etc., etc.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:22 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EJ -- How does one pay off debt if you have to borrow to do it?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:25 - ID#45173)
you have to wonder how the HK market will react when they realize that the g'vment is not a perm fixture in the market. The g'vment has promised an "orderly" sale of stuff bought when they decide the bad guys have gone away, ostensibly for good or at least until they can't do too much damage. If I was one of the bad guys, I'd have my eyes open for this orderly g'vment sale of stuff. Then I'd rush in a clobber the thing to death.

But that's just me.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:25 - ID#153110)
@EJ Isn't that the Russian Prime Minister's Plan ?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:25 - ID#288262)
Is it safe?
Can a guy come up for air?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:27 - ID#252286)

O No

I fell into a bull trap. Help Help Help

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:28 - ID#45173)
Yes, and that's what we've recommended to the Japanese to do. So far they've said f*ck off. But you never know. They might do it too.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:29 - ID#223329)
messy79 tomate juice
5.6 cycle begins 10/98? when does it END? is this a secret?
i need to know when to sell...any insight appreciated...

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:32 - ID#384350)
EJ - The End Game
EJ, that's right, the govt has to keep spending ( printing + usury ) to keep the economy from collapsing. You get to a point like 20% inflation where people try to exit fiat currency like Latin America in the early 80's or Russia today.

They certainly will come up with schemes, like mortgage credits, feed & clothe the needy, etc.

Someone mentioned that in Malaysia reserve requirements by Malaysian banks had been reduced to ridiculous levels ( 6%? ) . IMO, this is not to spur the economy, but to prevent banks from calling in loans in order to meet reserve requirements. In the 1930's the FED doubled reserve requirements, further imploding the economy so that the beautiful people ( Rockefeller, Rothschild, Morgan, etc ) could buy up everything with the money they counterfeit at the FED. I saw the Grapes of Wrath. This time, How are they going to throw 200 million people in the streets?

Tolerant1, I remembered another purported comment by Zhirinovsky. He said that in the not so distant future people would be fleeing the US due to famine and taking refuge in countries like Russia. Does this guy know something?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:32 - ID#288262)
I guess not. I'll try back later.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:33 - ID#45173)
The g'vment can do something that's hard for you and me to do because no self-respecting bank would lend us the money to do it. They can borrow new money to pay off their old loans. They pay off the old loans with the new inflated dollars.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:35 - ID#384350)
El Dorado
You Can't. That's why it's called a "Debt Trap".

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:40 - ID#346209)
Disregard what I said about the XAU cycles. Sorry

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:41 - ID#45173)
Asia's a mixed bag tonight, seem to have lost their ummph over the rates drop jawboner
No guesses about tomorrow. Joe Sixpack did have the weekend to mull over the 18% loss on his 401K and mutual fund statements and read all the chearful press about war and decline and bear markets, etc. Joe's a dope so he's a little slow to move, embarrassed by his own gullibility, stubborn in his wrong-headed beliefs. He bought gold at $650 and now he's got a bunch of Dell he bought at the top. But he'll jump out sooner or later, just as soon as he's figured out all the big boys have already left the building.

Time for beddy bye. Big day tomorrow with some Brazilians.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
EJ -- Yes, they can TRY to borrow 'new' money to pay off old debt. Might cost 100% in usury. But it doesn't buy a damn thing, for what will have to happen will happen anyway. See Russia today as a a prime example of what happens when the CONfidence evaporates.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:45 - ID#304282)
Why is asia so much higher the past two nights?
Globex +21 What happened over the weekend?

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:46 - ID#215379)
EJ - thats the Big Boys trying to prove that Malaysia policy of abandoning US$ will not work.
Why ?, so other countries ( Japan ) doesn't jump on idea and ruin the US$ as the Reserve Currency....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:47 - ID#411112)
golddkm...don't mean to nit pick...key words "on demand" are assuming everyone with a Dollar

Bill will demand a silver Dollar at the same or silver backing is an insurance
to the holder of paper,that if you want you
can exchange your paper to gold/
point not every one will exercise that
option at the same time...only a Russian like
condition would
cause folks to cash in....or try to.....

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:47 - ID#252286)
Oooops...former message should read....

O No, I fell into a bear trap. Help Help Help

I'm having trouble with my cut & paste. Never could get the hang of that.

Toss me a bear squeeze, woudya'?..... Its cold out tonight...



(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:49 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tricky -- Greenspan Friday 'kinda' indicated that to preclude recession ( Asian contagion ) , that the possibility of rate decrease seemed somewhat more likely.

(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:52 - ID#252286)
I will not post all night
My beautiful wife awaits! I am a fortunate man.



(Mon Sep 07 1998 23:54 - ID#284255)
500 Days to Go: Hamasaki Says the Game Is Over