Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:02 - ID#17077)
09/09/98 has now arrived... I have waited for this day. How I have waited for this day.

Signing off.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:07 - ID#273432)
Amazing, simply amazing....
Updated models from the JEIL the master....

Ignore these models at your peril, IMHO. I wish I
had long ago paid more attention to them.

We are close to the edge.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:07 - ID#45173)
World markets got a woody for the hot, sexy future?
Naw. Dr. Greenspan's dose of market Viagra has worn off already.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:08 - ID#350145)
thanks for info - old trader-new info
i am new here and appreciate the info from and to all sources. been trading mining stocks 16 years without the net, technologically handicapped. this will work much better. even first class mail for northern miner leaves much to be desired. all this info and a probable mkt bottom should make for intersting times.

Dave in CO
(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:10 - ID#229141)
@Earl, Highrise
I, as one lurking goldbug, get enough abuse from CNBC and the mainstream news media. I don't appreciate reading the same crap here.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:12 - ID#373403)
M3 correlation with market slowdown
Month M3
1998.01 5421.4
1998.02 5461.6
1998.03 5527.0
1998.04 5573.6
1998.05 5601.2
1998.06 5625.4
1998.07 5626.9

Notice the June/July slowdown of M3 corresponds with this current "correction".

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:12 - ID#252286)
Baaaaaarrrrrt....... its nooooot faaaaaaiiiiirrrrrr!!!

He is badmouthing platinum!!!

But so many love it so!!!!

How can he do this????

I believe that he is personally responsible for driving the entire platinum market with his words. Ohhhh Pleeeeeeaaaaaase stoooop him! Dont let him say any more bad things about platinum? Okay????

He is a stupid rat, and walks into every trap I lay. I have gathered more of his foolishness this evening to squash his lamebrained ideas, I may never have to go the archives again!

Because RJ likes platinum, and F weenie hates RJ, he is now using this forum in a deliberate misinformation campaign. He is offering bogus information, which can be proven false. He is harming strangers who dont know any better, who may act on his stupid words. Like Clinton murdering people in Sudan and Afghanistan because he was caught lying with his pants down. F worm is now passing misinformation on this site. I feel compelled to stop this. ( Yes F*boy, our president is a murderer, with all the moral and religious implications that encompasses that charge. You tell that to Al, woudya? )

By the way, F smear, Bart hates this very sort of thing. He really haters it when stock brokers come in to badmouth gold to sell some stocks. He will hate your deliberate misinformation regarding platinum. You are killing off your allies with each word you type. Do you think Bart cares more about you, or the integrity of his site? Do you think he will allow a distortion campaign against one of the metals? Keep it up and see where your friends are. Your messin with Barts lunch when you mess with the credibility of his site.

You should be ashamed of your actions. The man gave you a forum to spout your idiocies, but you now load it up with lies, and half truths about platinum. With NO facts to back it up. No answers to the most basic questions. Just because you cant compete with RJ. Did your dad beat you a lot?

Oh, I get it, its all a joke, right? You knew it all the time?

You are getting funnier as the night goes on and I consider my role in your downfall here to be a shining moment in history.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:13 - ID#40799)
oz stocks
anyone heard of audax resources ( ADX ) ??? also is now a good time to buy into LVG?? have been invested in audax for sometime, even before they won the court case, but as live outside Oz ( in Taiwan ) have problems following their fate!! Am of the opinion that winning the bronzewing decision hands them a lot of gold, but share prices aren't moving???

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:15 - ID#247273)
welcome to kitco.....
your erstwhile credentials sound impressive.
What stocks have you traded, and what companies can you recommend in the
face of the present gold equities market?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:15 - ID#286230)
The ASA chart does not look good for gold.

PH in LA
(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:20 - ID#225408)

I thought of you when I read the Kaplan site tonight.

On another note, not only does our admirer LGB admit to not distinguishing between mental patients and human beings, or between frauds/cowards/purveyors/etc ( all according to his own definitions of course ) and human beings, he also takes pride in being unable and/or unwilling to distinguish between lackeys and thoughtful intellects. Or between followers and like-thinking individuals.


Seems like a lost cause to me.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:21 - ID#252286)
9/9/98 Huh?

You live out on the west coast there F* sonny.
That's about 9:30 pm there, isn't it?
Is you clock broken
Or has somebody just cleaned it?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:22 - ID#401460)
Dave in CO

I agree, so why attack each other?

Good Night All

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:23 - ID#372276)
how to buy BEARX?

If I were to buy the BEARX issue on the NASDAQ would I get the closing price for the day or the price for the instant I buy?

sorry nothing about gold in this post--


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:23 - ID#284255)
Greenspan is very good at pontificating the point.
Jawboning on the vernacular.

The comparisons between yesteryear and today
And the human frailities of investors.

Leads one to think that he's trying to hide his butt
From what he sees about to happen.

Like BC he's between a rock and a hard spot.
And the rock isn't made of gold.

Swing charts - up/down volumes - advance/decline - momentum

Our Aussie market like many other do not buy this latest rally.
All the futures gains ( SPI ) from yesterdays moves have been erased.
And the market's now lower than yesterday's low.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:23 - ID#411259)

your post to me was cryptic
And leaves me in the dark,
Like the earthworm you speak of.
I donT understand your point. Sorry.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:23 - ID#411259)

your post to me was cryptic
And leaves me in the dark,
Like the earthworm you speak of.
I donT understand your point. Sorry.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:25 - ID#273432)

Of course, there is a silver ( or gold ) lining in this....some wonderful bargains at the bottom of the chasm.

I'm still holding about 15% of my portfolio in mining shares, but if we start down the slippery slope shown on those curves, I'll dump everything that still has any significant value by the end of this week.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:28 - ID#342376)
@ Silverbaron and Jeil's charts...
I too, am a bit frightened. They seem to be alarmingly accurate. However, there are so many "random" variables in the world now that I have to wonder how they could hold up. Clinton and the EURO launch being the two big ones IMHO, but there are many others.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:29 - ID#247273)
Lowest on the food chain.
Nothing personal, it is just the position you hold.
You will be gone with wind when the tide turns.
but you cannot digest the metal.
feeding on the fringes.
thrice removed from reality....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:32 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:32 - ID#350145)
to AZAU - thanks for the welcome
in a flat mkt i stick with exploration only. in a rising mkt ( like this one? ) i find small companies with known reserves. right now i am using a four prong attack 1 ) just plain oversold value 2 ) reserves 3 ) silver stocks 4 ) warrants on majors out of the money with at least two years time ( some of which are very underpriced - i think? )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:33 - ID#373403)
You get the days closing price. Best to purchase at the end of the day.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:34 - ID#226299)
@the scene
copperfoot -- Euro is NOT backed with 15% gold. But they will have a gold reserve of 15%, the rest being currencies. Makes it a bit better than other countries, but it still is a debt-based currency that depends on the 'con' going forward. The reserve is there for their currency protection if/when the need arises where they have to go into the market to purchase their currency to uphold some politicians percieved 'value' of it. ( You know how that works, right? ) It CAN though put an appreciable dent in the 'desire' to necessarily hold as many dollars in reserve which probably will put some pressure on the debt ladened 'value' of the buck. And thus, the game of 'musical chairs' continues.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:38 - ID#247273)
don't bother with the futures.
Where have you been. Show us your scars.....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:40 - ID#329186)
copperfoot(question#1) ID 270123 8 sept 23:23
The fig of 10% or 15% is not the point the Euro is not backed by either 10% OR 15% THIS imho IS JUS TO MISLEAD the figure is that the reserves will have 10 or 15% quite different. probably get scuppered by y2k


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:41 - ID#252286)
Some minor changes and then some more things

Yet, what real intrinsic value is there?

It is valued in American Dollars, you see. The value is in the American Dollar, not the Gold.

You cannot go to a store and buy food with gold.

You cannot pay your rent with gold.

No, you must sell your gold for American Dollars.

The last time I looked, all transactions in America were conducted in Dollars, not gold.

So, in effect, Gold is worthless.

No store of value there.




Yet platinum has historically, even back to ancient times, been more valuable than gold 99% of the time. I feel very bad for gold, should your ever so dark views on platinum hold up.

But you still offer no facts to support your assertions. We must conclude that you are just blowing your horn again. ( on your knees in front of your friends? REALLY ) .
Since this is an historical fact, and you are obviously trying another of your lame attempts at "satire", thinly veiled as it may be. Do you now propose that the same history that you hold aloft for the nobility of gold, is completely wrong about its more valuable distant cousin?

This history that you use to support your views on gold, has always supported platinum prices at a premium to gold, You stepped it again paly, you are shooting yourself in the foot and all these words will return to you at a later date. Tell the folks then it was just satire and you knew it all the time.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:42 - ID#247273)
"going forward" IS the CON.
Haven't you and all kitco figured that out yet?
Laughable expression that will live in infamy.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:42 - ID#286230)
I think you have the idea or atleast the idea I'm following. As I have said I dumped all my PM stocks except for a little ABX in 1996 and I'm still waiting for a bottom and a subsequent rise to buy back in. I still think a $250 price is possible. Like some of the others here I have made a fair percentage ( on Canadian blue chips ) during the last 22 months or so and have just begun to sell them off as the Asian problems come ashore.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:46 - ID#45173)
Buy BEARX tomorrow a.m. you get it at the opening price, I'm pretty sure I did. Ask yer broker just to be certain.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:47 - ID#411259)
..... AZAU .....

I trade metals for my clients for speculation. I also deliver thousands of ounces of physical gold to people, the most conservative thing one can do, and widely recommended by all on this site.

How am I at the bottom? If gold is king, and I work for the largest bullion dealer in the world, and my prices can beat all others, how would I possibly get hurt? Gold skyrockets and my phone will ring 16 hours a day with people begging to buy gold NOW! This would tend to increase my net worth substantially. I do not take you post personally, I am just bewildered at the thought process.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:50 - ID#226299)
@the scene
AZAU -- Nope. Nobody around here has figured out a damned thing yet. I suppose that since you hang out here too, the same must apply. So tell me, what is that you are attempting to say? What is it you say we haven't seen yet?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:50 - ID#93241)
Missing Link, Reify
Missing Link 23:53--That the market would rally on AG's comments shows just how desperate the equities markets are for good news.

Reify 21:19--No offense, but you left out rhody. He's comes up with good info on lease rates.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:54 - ID#411259)
..... AZAU you wrote: scavenger = trader .....

Yet nobody gets any gold from anybody which is not traded first.
This would seem to me to be the top of the food chain.
I deal in physical metal, not futures or options
It is the cash market that is the dog
Future and options are just an enthusiastically waging tail

Many make the mistake of believing that the futures control the markets, this is because that is what they see. International bullion markets are done at spot and spot is king.

You equation above is faulty, for the metal to be bought, it must also be traded.

Did you have a bad experience with a trader in the past?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 00:55 - ID#373403)
by Michael H. Moskow
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Year 2000 Personal and Corporate Liability Compliance for Financial Institutions Conference

American Banker/Strategic Research Institute
Chicago, Illinois
July 20, 1998

It's also essential to ensure that any Y2K risk from customers is well-controlled. All banks were required to implement a risk management process to assess the Year 2000 risks posed by customers by June 30th of this year. The emphasis here is on controlling risk, not managing the borrower's compliance of Y2K. Our goal is to help avoid business interruption.

What does this mean? What risks BY customers are there for banks?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:00 - ID#153110)
@Charts of Jeil
Predict Y2K will be a market non-event.

Neither HM nor ASA are worth fooling with if his S&P 500 chart is accurate.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:01 - ID#350145)
we did good up until 1988. we did great with pegasus wts in 1987 .20 to 5.25 -look it up and caught a few others along the way. took a bath in 88. just a few explorations until recently. now fully invested. in a rising mkt you can't beat wts on a good major because most people can't handicap them - but it is still the big wheel turning the little one.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:01 - ID#226299)
@the scene
TheMissingLink -- Bankruns by 'customers' not trusting their accounts to faulty 'puters perhaps?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:02 - ID#247273)
I am sorry,
twice removed
1 ) you do not mine the metal, i.e., extract it from the earth
( create wealth )
2 ) you do not own the metal as a producer or broker, i.e., take personal responsibility for the actual metal and the ownership.

But you do work in the selling and handling.
my apologies. I am working to ferret out the impostors.
how much have you lost in gold investing?
futures, options?

keep up the good salesmanship!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:06 - ID#411259)
..... One thing that sharefin taught me .....

Is that the most compliant bank or corporation is susceptible to "garbage in garbage out" if the international networks, which they all share, are non compliant.

No getting away from the whole domino thingie, yes?


(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:07 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- Perhaps his charts cannot take into account events like that. Charts that project can only do so off of past performance. Thus they cannot actually peer into the future. Sometimes cycles get overriden to at least some respect. And do not forget that his charts are constantly underging modification as new data is entered.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:09 - ID#219363)
How many ounces of Gold would be bought if just one investor in a hundred put three percent of his or her porfolio into the physical metal ? I seem to remember five percent being recommended way back - even I haven't done that. I think most people think "investing" means playing the equities market and little else. So lemme see - .03 times 1/100 would be about, what, .0003. Multiply that by, say, a million $US and you get about one golden eagle per million bucks invested. How many million are there out there ? How many ounces of coin on the market ? How far off on the three percent or the 1 in 100 investors ? If there's a trillion bucks out there and you do 3 percent of 1/100 you get about 30 mil. Just curious.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:09 - ID#247273)
I believe what you say.
Maybe you can contribute positive investment info, and more importantly,
wisdom to this forum. Hope we all ride the wave...
Tell me more about warrants.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
Silverbaron - Crazytimes
Jeils charts are very eirie.
I would expect that there is some self correcting factor in his formulas.

But what intrigues me is how they are following a track laid out months earlier.
How do they divine this future path?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:14 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- Given what Jeil shows in his charts for the projected path of HM and ASA, wonder what that means for the POG!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:15 - ID#93241)
railroads & Y2K
I talked to a client of mine this a.m. who is involved in the acquisition of a short line RR and asked her about Y2K. She seemed to think that a lot of RR's were still operating manual switches and systems, and that those which were computerized were done so recently so compliance is not an issue. She did say that a lack of standard software for tracking, etc. is a big issue in that industry and that the USG would set up in the next few years a system like the FAA ( Federal Aviation Administration for you non-Americans ) to centralize controls across the US.

Sharefin, you got any info on RR's? Anyone else?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:16 - ID#153110)
@Charts of Jeil Also
predict gogold's prediction will fail and that gold will be in the cellar for moths and months.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:22 - ID#386245)
I woke up this morning...
...and was irritated as hell within seconds.

Turned on CNBC.
The bull sheisters were positively jumping out of their skins with glee.
Wrapped up the day with this gain and that gain and all is well with the world.
Then came a picture of a trolley loaded with gold bars in a vault. The comment was something like "...the so-called flight to safety, gold, was the only sector that did not participate etc... This was said with the most derisory tone by the young siren spouting her wisdom.

CNBC's owners ( is it GM or GE? ) obviously have a vested interest in making sure gold does not take off. This so-called financial news broadcast is as impartial as a fox in a chicken coop.

Think I'll leave the volume off and just look at the prices.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:26 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Nick@C -- Anything is better than watching/listening to that tripe and throwing inanimate objects at the TV and kicking the dog!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:28 - ID#93241)
I do believe that CNBC is "GE" propaganda. Which brokerage do they own?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:29 - ID#411259)

No apologies necessary. My company is the largest seller of bullion to individuals anywhere in the world. We hold more physical metal I know of outside of a bank. We are the various mints largest customer and move more of their bullion coins ( no rare coins, not my thing ) into the hands of the people than anyone else. This is a valid function.

I also trade for speculators, this is a lower form of investing, more like blackjack than anything else. The reason I chose blackjack as an example is because that is the only game in the casino in which the odds frequently shift to the player and away from the house. Speculation is were the fun is, but it must be done with speculative funds, not retirement money, or key savings. Never speculate unless you can afford to loose it all.

I have taken zero losses in the equities. This is probably untrue, because the only cash I have in equities is in long term retirement funds. I never look at that balance, it aint going nowhere. I rode through the 87 crash through. Bought Fidelity Capital Appreciation when it was a brand new fund. Watched it go up a bit and then lost a third of its value in a day. We all remember that October day in 1987, yes?

I held onto the fund and sold a year and a half later, at a net 50% ( almost exactly ) gain for the two years I heald the fund. This was through the big crash though. Not these measly 6% drops that have people pinching their sphincters these days. That was a 24% drop in a week. Now THAT is a crash.

I also have never sold personal bullion for less than I paid for it. What would be the point. I owned it, I didnt like the price, I kept it. Sooner or later I would get my price and sell. I also trade no futures or option, as the house cannot be beat, except in rare and extraordinary markets. I do not leverage metals in my own account. The reason for this is personal. Primarily because my clients come first, I cant be worrying about grabbing my own profits before I grab profits for my clients. This is a personal decision, and it not meant to reflect badly on others who may trade their own accounts.

My clients have taken losses. Any broker would have to admit this. Those that dont get spooked, and follow some simple advice, tend to make a whole lot more than they loose. This is the measure of a good broker. By the way, I use the words broker and trader interchangeably. I understand the distinction, but I can describe my job no other way.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:32 - ID#153110)
@Currency Wars, Debt Defaults,
and computer glitches are not in Jeil's data.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:33 - ID#284255)
Mozel - I to am intrigued???
I too, had thought of that one.
No Y2k effect.

Also no crash from here just the ever increasing bear.
Why is this so?

And so much inter-reliance.

Between banks - communications - utilities - GPS systems and fuel supplies.

Each and every one of these systems is a cornerstone in our society.
Take one away and the others tetter and fall.

When one takes a global overview of the quantity of daily commerce.
One realises that this current global market place is awesomely huge.

With modern 'just in time' marketing concepts and this huge daily consumption of goods.
One can easily see where the systems are at risk.

It matters little if the US or Australia become compliant.
70% of the world is way behind the eight ball.

We only need to see a 30% to 50% failure rate in overseas production.
To bring the rest of the world to its knees.

Asia feeds the world with so many of its products
And is so unprepared for what is to fall upon them.
Much of the rest of the world is the same.

When the masses in the cities cannot buy goods and foods from other countries.
And can't function as normal.
Then we will see the cornerstones shaken.

To my mind's eye this will be unavoidable.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:35 - ID#219363)
Just curious - who actually mints the coins in the US ? Are they minted strictly by domestic companies ? I'm guessing under contract w/ the federal government or something similar. Does the mint contract directly with mines to get at a supply of raw material, or do they buy it out on the open market or something ? Any trivia appreciated. Interesting stuff.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:37 - ID#350145)
warrants and other musings
warrants are tricky, and i am hesitant to encourage anyone to mess with them. this market has been beaten to death. the worst i have seen since 1982 and there is plenty of value. my main worry now is role backs. but you know what they say you, buy when the enemy is at the gates and sell when the bugles of victory are sounding. seems to me the enemy is climbing over the walls and that is without the "reason" greenspan jawboned the world mkts. and even if i am wrong about this bottom it is low enough for me.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:40 - ID#153110)
@sharefin No offense meant, because I guess you have a completely
different form of government downunder, but your advice to Americans not to read the Constitution and the Law was akin to telling a drowning man to give up.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 01:56 - ID#225283)

anyone know the URL?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:01 - ID#252127)
Some 1997 palladium information

( ( Wording below is not exactly as in the referenced article. ) )

From The Northern Miner of Dec. 15-21, 1997 and relating to palladium consumption for 1997 as provided by Johnson Matthey Refiners.

In 1997 supplies of palladium stood at 5.65 million oz., while demand stood at 7.44 million oz.

Auto makers were expected to purchase 3.07 million oz., this is up 710,000 ounces compared with 1996.

Consumption of palladium in the electronics sector is forcast to rise 500,000 oz. in 1997 to 2.54 million oz., other applications will rise about 60,000 to 1.97 million oz.
( ( My addition: Adding the above figures gives 7.58 million oz which is a bit off the initial 7.44 million figure. ) )

What is significant is that the 3.07 million oz. used by the auto industry is about 40% of total consumption and is Mandated by Government's.

Government edicts are not reliable means of determining future demand as they are impositions upon society which may change.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:02 - ID#219363)
Nevermind - I found a bunch of information at the US mint about the sales figures for bullion coins, how they are distributed, etc. I would still be interested in knowing how dealers go about purchasing coins from the mint, etc, to understand the market a little better.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:04 - ID#252127)
Some 1997 palladium information

( ( Wording below is not exactly as in the referenced
article. ) )

From The Northern Miner of Dec. 15-21, 1997 and relating
to palladium consumption for 1997 as provided by Johnson
Matthey Refiners.

In 1997 supplies of palladium stood at 5.65 million oz.,
while demand stood at 7.44 million oz.

Auto makers were expected to purchase 3.07 million oz.,
this is up 710,000 ounces compared with 1996.

Consumption of palladium in the electronics sector is
forcast to rise 500,000 oz. in 1997 to 2.54 million oz.,
other applications will rise about 60,000 to 1.97
million oz.
( ( My addition: Adding the above figures gives 7.58
million oz which is a bit off the initial 7.44 million
figure. ) )

( ( What is significant is that the 3.07 million oz. used by the auto industry is about 40% of total consumption
and is Mandated by Government's. ) )

( ( Government edicts are not reliable means of determining future demand as they are impositions upon society which may change. ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:04 - ID#284255)
I am still a bear on the POG here.

Still firm of the faith that the markets have yet to crash.
And there's going to be an awful lot of redemptions come due at the bottom.
Paper debts to be paid etc.

Like the equity markets guess we'll have to wait and see.

Railroads have been well discussed over at the newsgroup.
Lots of garbage there but some very poignant comments from some of the few in the know.

I have not seen a lot on railroads.
Gary Norths transport section should have most of what has been published on the subject.

Plus lots of good reads here.

One thing I am always wary of is people who claim they know what they are talking about when it comes to Y2k.

Maybe I have read too much?
I would guess I've read more than 15,000 pages on the subject.
But I find most people who are vocal in denial of Y2k have not read much at all.

It's easy to pick these people out.
Just throw some cold hard statistics-facts at them and watch for their response.

Like the local power suppliers Y2k Project Manager who I talked to.
He told me to "go home, don't worry, and have a party."
A 'everything is OK' sort of spiel.

When I confronted him with some well known facts about power utilities.
Ontario - Hawaii etc
And mentioned some well known names.
Rick Cowles, Roleigh Martin
And started to mention some statisics.
He visibly cowered and started looking around the room.
Within a minute he was talking with someone else.

Since that date his company has released a statement stating that they are not yet compliant and hope to be next year.

Most of these people who deny Y2k
When confronted with statistics
Prefer to change the subject.

They don't like their lack of knowledge being exposed.

I have found that this method works very quickly and is highly accurate.
T-Bone expressed it here in two lines the other day.
So poignantly.

He basically said:
I don't believe in Y2k
I don't want to talk about it.
I don't want to hear about it.
And I want to change the subject to gold.

Classic denial.
When approaching your bank manager, or anyone else higher up in the chain, asking about Y2k compliance.

Go forewarned and forarmed.
Study their feild in Y2k and try this out on them.

You will soon see how sure of themselves and their knowledge they are.

99.99999% of the population is in denial.

This is why gold will go through the roof.
When denial turns to stark awareness
They will react without caution.

Go Gold

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:05 - ID#93241)
mozel, sharefin
In regards to Y2K non-event, it occurred to me that it would not destroy roads or rails or factories ( hopefully ) . That is, no matter how we get hit with Y2K, the physical infrastructure will remain intact. Barring war or natural disasters, dealing with Y2K will be a matter of working with computers...or without them. There's been a number of posts here ( Compgeek's come to mind ) by programmers who speculate what will happen but almost always hedge by stating that they don't really know what will happen. I've talked too a couple myself who echo similar sentiments. These seem to me to be the objective statements I've seen to date on Y2K. Check out ITAA's Year2000 website. It is very interesting.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:15 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- I expect that at BEST, Y2K is going to be 'some' kind of mess. And even without it, there are plenty of messes. Makes one wonder if Y2K will even matter. Everyone had better be doing a LOT of CYA!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:15 - ID#257312)
Euro, Gold, and You Know What

Had an interesting conversation with a German frau today. She is recently in the US, doing
some post graduate studies. Asked her about
the Euro. She recounted some of the
positives, such as consumer choice, lowered
trade barriers, simplicity, etc. Asked her
about Gold backing for the Euro. Said she
thinks Germany will keep their Gold, but not
sure if Gold will be directly tied to the
Euro. Then asked what Germany thinks about
Y2K. Got a blank stare. This is a very
informed and intelligent woman, who had
absolutely zero awareness of Y2K. None. On
the whole, the conversation was both
delightful, and eye opening. I think she
would add a valuable perspective to Kitco.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:17 - ID#93241)
ditto that Eldorado

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:23 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- I don't know that POG has seen the low yet, nor what it would be if we haven't already seen it. Probably a lot less important than if one is in gold stocks and it drops. One has to watch the price action in whatever they invest in. But it certainly should behoove ALL to have a bit of physical buried about, not to mention a whole lot of other items!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:29 - ID#280214)
tolerant1 - I'll Chas, also I post a 2nd e-mail & ISP
My e-mail has been quiet - oddly so.
Your note that e-mail to me is getting bounced back may explain this.
But I wonder why. Darn technology anyway.
My primary e-mail address is"
An alternative e-mail address for me is:
Though it is easy for me to log into either ISP and use either mail server regardless of which ISP I am logged into, not often do I change Netscape's preferences to fetch e-mail from but I will try to remember to do so once a day or so until this clears up.
I need only to the mail server settings to retrieve e-mail.
But I need to change the identity settings to send.
I have sent myself a test e-mail to see what happens.

I understand that using multiple ISPs and e-mail addresses for our Micrsoft Explorer users may be more complicated than this. If this is not true - I ask the Explorer users to correct this impression.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:30 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Time to briefly peruse my new Borderlands mag and grab some shuteye.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:50 - ID#377196)
@ Private Investor The BEARX site

(Wed Sep 09 1998 02:51 - ID#284255)
Mozel - how could I ever be offended?
Yes a totally different form.
Not so 'in your face' I would guess.

But the point is no matter how well versed you are
"THEY" can dominate and exceed your rights.

Not so much don't read.
More so be aware and cautious.

Careful avoidance of instigating reprisals
Is a cautious way through life.

Berating and beating ones head against the establishment
Will create more woes than one needs.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:00 - ID#250297)
Mysterious JEIL site.
SILVERBARON or ANYONE: Earlier tonight you posted up a URL for something called JEIL ( charts? ) ( ) . It seems to have caused a considerable stir and I'm most curious to visit there, but for some reason my Netscape denies me access to it. ( Must be my personality or something. ) Anyhow, I assume that the URL above is right and works for others. Any other suggestions on how to get there from here? Thanks.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:06 - ID#280214)
Reify, your 21:19 is apropos! It explains absences here.
Better, briefer, more relevant posts are likelier to be read.
I agree with your statement:
"with time being at a premium, this reader, would enjoy more posts of substance, and the return of many long lost posters ( the list is endless ) and less chatter that has little relevance to what this site is intended for."

Promey, for one, has been absent a lot - perhaps for the above reason.
I too, should be spending less time here.

Nevertheless - important developments regarding Y2K, Clinton, incipient wars, and other factors which historically have had major affects on the POG should continue to be posted here for our enlightenment. Perhaps we could refrain from lengthy posts and instead post short descriptions and urls for more info for those who are interested. I am as guilty as others of contributing to long tiresome philosophical discussions or monologues.

Lengthy posts {over 500 words} are often ignored. To induce others to read our posts, the first two dozen words should have key words and reasons to read the whole post. This teaser is the short text view.

We should try to keep our posts brief and to the point - using techniques used by journalists for whom space is at a premium. Over 500 words readers may skip the article. 200 to 300 words are likelier to be read. All of us read posts under 100 words unless obviously irrelevant to our concerns. Conscious efforts to edit our posts down to "executive summaries" would help us digest more info, save us time, conserve Barts bandwidth, and get our posts more widely read.

I am likely over this limit - 'nuff said.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:11 - ID#377196)
The JEIL URL didn't work for me either
Anyone have info on how to get there?

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:19 - ID#250297)
I'm not nuts!
GOLDILOCKS: Yeah! How about that? Betcha all those with the relevant info. have gone to bed. Too bad...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:19 - ID#284255)
Does this link work?

Psychological Stages

We are very fortunate that infrastucture will not be hurt.
C'ept from trigger happy military types.

And I too hope for the best.
I'll just be tucked away till the direction has been confirmed.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:22 - ID#250297)
SHAREFIN: Nice try. The Y2K site works just fine but the other one gives me the same response. Very irritating. Perhaps it is not meant to be. Thanks for the attempt, though. Much appreciated.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:23 - ID#280214)
tolerant1 - me e-mail is working.
I just rcvd my test and also one from Aurator.
Must be negative waves and ionic interference from the Moon,
or not enough Southern Comfort.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:26 - ID#153120)
Strat and the Y2K non-event
Strat you are woefully misinformed about how things work these days! In the last 20 years American industry has experienced a revolution where people have been replaced by computers in such industries as steel production, auto manufacturing, electrical power. Senator Bennett of Utah chaired a Y2K investigation on CSPAN, representives of the rail road industry were there to give testimony. They testified that the switching is now done by computers instead of the old manual methods. It seems that the new system also prevents operation of the rail road from being switched manually, the old manual switches were sold to scrap yards. If your electrical utilities are Y2K compliant they could still have problems if the rail roads can't get them coal to burn.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:26 - ID#280214)
sharefin - this link refused connection cuz it's busy, etc.

It HAS to be negative waves from Luna!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:34 - ID#252127)

I'm of the opinion that Mr. Greenspan showed more worry
than hope at Berkely, while Rubins inclination was
toward demands, to which the Japanese take offense, both their efforts did not seem equal to 380.53 DOW points.

Although the big move could have had some PPT support, I think it was orchestrated by insiders for a steep drop to burn thr small investor as they go after Clinton.

Its always been my hope that when the DOW swoons, it does so slowly, giving enough investors the time to consider gold.

The premise is simple, the more money going into gold and PM Mining shares, the greater the rise.

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:35 - ID#250297)
Another bookmarked site.
SHAREFIN: Thanks for the Y2K site. Just got back from buzzing around there. Very interesting and informative.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:40 - ID#280214)
Envy's 22:23 is a must read reminder for us all.
We are free to choose what we read or scroll past. No force is used to stuff a post into our eyeballs. There is no need to rudely chastize others posts. We may disagree with their prognostications and, in the spirit of peer review, call them on it. But they are still free to post. When a person's posts are ignored by receiving no written recognition - like they were tossed into a pool and sank with nary a ripple - that is criticism enough because the silence IS noticed by the author. There is no need to grate on the rest of us with obnoxious rants about the post.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:53 - ID#153110)
@sharefin Silence & compliance just emboldens a bully.
I have an idea things in AussyLand aren't quite as peachy as you make them out.

John Disney
(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:55 - ID#24135) for something completely different ..
To mozel/jeil..
I predict that jeil's prediction will not work out!!
I am puzzled by references to the "alarming accuracy"
of the past predictions .. I imagine that "past" prediction
and data are made coincident for purpose of the
prediction process itself and do not really represent
prior prediction overlaid with prior actuals.
No offense jeil .. I doubt if you really want your
predictions to work out anyway. Am I mistaken on my
interpretation ??
My OWN prediction for the sp500 is a fall to around
780 - 820 ( which everyone will interpret as the end of
the world and kitco will enter a period of cheerleading
rapture ) .. followed by a RISE to at least the prior
high and more likely beyond.. THEN we get a serious
BEAR!!. All this because I see the sp500 in a major
wave 4 decline ( present up move prevides a lovely
short or put occasion in my view )
Regarding gogold forecast .. I attach no weight to
it one way or the other.. Is there anything greater
that total disregard ??
My view on gold stocks in not chart related .. I
believe Homestake is a dog and will see 6 .. I believe
ASA is a champ and will see 27.. all because of earnings.
.. great in the case of asa .. rotten in the case of

(Wed Sep 09 1998 03:59 - ID#153110)
@Preaching to the Choir & What shall be done
There is no choir to which to preach. There's mostly just soloists. A choir sings from the same sheet of music.

And, what, you ask, should be done ? My answer is that each should do what his understanding, means, abilities, and convictions lead him to do.

In American law the legal status each chooses by voluntary act determines the legal status of the one who has chosen, determining whether or not thenceforward a legal status of "artificial person", a legal "alter ego" so to speak, attaches. A slave, for instance, was an "artificial person" though not by choice. A sole corporation artificial person has not rights, but only the privileges and immunities granted by the legislature. I have tried to convey what the choices are which define legal status. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what you ought to do.

The entity which collects "tax" from you in FRN's at the State level of government cannot be the state of the federal Constitution which is prohibited from making anything but gold and solver coin a tender in payment of debt. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what to do.

Government in America has contrived, contrary to its charter, to get legal title to all vehicles and land, leaving the people no place to stand and no place to live free. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what to do.

Government in America has, contrary to the purposes for which Independence was obtained, contrived to make the State the Sovereign in American common-law after the precedents of the King in England.

The original 13th Amendment of 1819 to punish official privilege has been moved from a status of ratified and published as the law of the land to a status of non-existence contrary to the provisions of Article V of the Constitution. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what to do.

Congress by legislation and with the consent of the Supreme Court has contrived, contrary to its charter, to restructure state governments from their organic, authorized form of common-law Republics into Socialist International or Law of Nations Martial Law Republics. Congress also by amendment obtained by force of arms and with the consent of the Supreme Court has contrived to enact many Acts with US citizens as the subject under its War Powers and under that clause of the Constitution granting it power outside the bounds of the Constitution, to wit, the clause enabling it exclusively to make all rules and regulations for the District of Columbia. By uses of the Treaty Power exceeding the limits of its chartered power, Congress has made states and persons subject to its Acts contrary to the guarantees under which its charter was ratified. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what to do.

Congress has contrived to replace coined money with military scrip and has contrived a banking scheme employing a contract with the Federal Reserve which affords it an unlimited power to borrow on the credit of the land and the labor of the people on it. There is no check on the power to borrow now in the hands of Congress. And Congress exacts by taxation whatever is needed to continue to borrow and continuously to expand borrowing. Your understanding of what I have tried to convey on this score and your convictions will lead you to what to do.

There is research indicating A Secret Treaty of 1783 compromised all the promises of rights secured made at the time of ratification of the federal Constitution. I have given you the opportunity to seek the truth for yourself.

If I coulda' conveyed better, I woulda'.

Those who are led by other than their own understanding, means, abilities, and convictions are led against their own interests more often than not. Nite all.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:07 - ID#280214)
Mozel and Sharefin - re reading law or not
Mozel stated in his 01:40 today to Sharefin:
"your advice to Americans not to read the Constitution and the Law was akin to telling a drowning man to give up."
Sharefin in his 06:11 yesterday actually said:
"Why read about Law? If they want your stuff, they shall have it."

As usual - Mozel reads far more into someone's post than what was said.
Oddly enough, I agree with both Sharefin and Mozel.
Reading the law and Constitution to know what are rights are now is, perhaps, futile in light of the powers doing what they want anyway.
BUT - in 479 days we may have the opportunity to ring out the old and ring in the new - the new being a revitalization of the Constitution.
The rest of the body of law we may very well ignore as we start over because we have more important things to concern ourself with - such as growing food and defending ourselves against the elements and predators.
If those basic needs are met - then I may have time to sit and read Aristotle, Tocqueville, Jefferson, Heinlein, Tolstoy, and Rand - all of which are a helluva lot more relevant than non-Constitutional law.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:12 - ID#280214)
are he not?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:12 - ID#284255)
Stradmaster look here

Lots of interesting and informative sites.

As to Jeils site it works perfectly for me. Everytime.

And back to real time clocks. You know RTC's
We all did tests with 99% failures!!!!

The products listed below are Motorola semiconductors that contain a real time clock function.


Got gold, grub and guns???

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:15 - ID#32176)
Re Physical buying un NZ
I approached my usual supplier of Gold today to enquire about purchasing some more gold . This company is the highest profile NZ company . My previous purchasers have been from them at spot converted to NZ dollars at the then wholesale exchange rate and they buy back off you at 99% of the spot rate but the other side of the spread in the exchange rate conversion . However they now want spot plus 3% and instead of instant delivery you now have to front with the cash and delivery is delayed up to a week .
Reason for this demand pressure plus this company has always been a net exporter of gold but is now being forced to import . Very strange to have shortages at or near a bottom .....but this market has been more about paper than physical for too long now already . Still think the bottom could be 18th October ... Carolan Spiral Calendar foci point from $103.50

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:21 - ID#280214)
Motorola's Iridium System - is it Y2K compliant?
Will it provide a communications infrastructure when all else fails?
Will two people with Iridium phones {and perhaps modem connections thereto} be able to talk with each other without be affected by failures elsewhere? Could this system do for us what Ham radio does during earthside disasters?
The phones will cost about $3000 and airtime about $1.70 per minute plus long distance charges {according to Popular Science 10/98}.
I don't have the funds or justification to buy an Iridium phone later this month - but if any of you do - please post your experiences.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:21 - ID#258142)
Europe opened low
Germany -1.56%
France -0.85%
Switzerland -2.23%
London -1.3%
Netherlands -1.56
Dow to follow?

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:25 - ID#32176)
re Central Banks .....
Further to my last post regarding physical shortages etc .
The Central Banks are more or less our ( goldbugs ) stated enemies for the war we percieve them to have waged on the price of gold . However my perception is that we should perhaps consider them our friends . They after all are by far the largest holders of the physical and they had to take the price down to enable them to call in their leased out physical , which I presume has been whats really causing the shortages coupled with some YK2 buying etc . I personally dont think we will see gold coins in circulation , where are you going to get the gold in enough volume to have them widely held . The central banks will be the biggest winners in any massive revaluation of gold because they will always own most of it . We as individuals need to make sure we have more than our share of the rest . Just my opinion of course .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:28 - ID#280214)
A choir, in the context used in previous posts,
is meant to mean those who already believe. It matters not how they sing.
Most of us here believe in Gold, Y2K, Social & Economic Liberties, etc.
We may not sing from the same page but we share these beliefs {with the exception of some rascals who seem intent on baiting us on occasion and without whom we would bore each other with the same old tales - we need a kick in the butt once in a while to get our blood moving}.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:31 - ID#261155)
@the ol posters are not
absent Squirrell, they are just in much haste, to get ready for y2k and other things that everyone fears for theirs and their families future
fate.....and I can say with certainty, P and others read the posts by you and others who have the time to post this place, so do not worry, we are all fine, just busy trying to find that place with some peace of mind, and safety for our dear ones sake.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:32 - ID#36829)
Alright you have got me talking about the problem ( Y2K ) . I didn't say it wouldn't cause any problems, I just don't agree with theories that say it will throw the whole worlds financial system and every other system into caos.

I too am from Australia and at a meeting I recently attended the topic of power supply/Y2K was brought up. I am from Canberra and if ACTEW's system tanks then the Snowy Mountain Scheme will provide power, their system has been designed to deal with it and if it doesn't in any case they can go manual. So I am not without a clue.

Why wouldn't I want to talk about gold, most of my money is invested in it ( down a little on initial investment ) and this is after all a gold forum.

No disrespect intended by my reply, as it is, I do find some of your posts interesting.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 04:46 - ID#255284)
wanna buy noo zild gold?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:12 - ID#261155)
Why read the Constitution, when the laws our
Congress passes are given full force and effect, without having to pass any Constitutional test, were they tested against the Constitution, prior to enforcement, the Constitution would have some force and effect..and until then.... it will used as was the diary in "Dances with Wolves" by our duly elect....... :- )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:17 - ID#26793)
Indonesian mobs loot Chinese owned rice warehouses in two cities

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:18 - ID#256202)
Greenspan's Speech
Alan Greenspan's speech indicates that he will lower interest rates.
This spurs concerns that rates are declining because of the lack of inflation. Precious metals prices and indeed comodities in general thrive in an inflationary environment and wither in a deflationary invironment.
Look for the price of gold to fall a bit more in the short term.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:20 - ID#26793)
Turmoil in Russia will not halt the launch of the Euro

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:22 - ID#261155)
@ donald
Got bear off?????

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:23 - ID#250121)
Welcome to kitco.

If you hear anything different from the real humans do let me know. At the moment I am thinking that much of the Y2K is an extraordinary popular delusion, ANOTHER Californian cult, a Jonestown, a Heavens Gate. Seen any UFO's over the airforce base?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:23 - ID#261155)
bear off = .45 SMG

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:25 - ID#32176)
Nice coin ..... but don't like the price .
re my previous posts ( 2 ) .....shortages at a bottom ......consistent with Central Banks getting their leased gold back ... What do you think ???

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:27 - ID#32176)
sorry no UFO's today just some pesky Navy helicopters .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:27 - ID#26793)
Fuji Bank denies heavy derivative losses; says market rumors are false.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:30 - ID#26793)
The Bear is on auto-pilot. The levers are frozen; CB pilots can't regain control. What is .45 SMG?

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:33 - ID#32176)
re inflation deflation on POG are correct given conventional wisdom.
However if this is "Prechters" Grand supercycle crash things will probably be different . Look at countries where currencies are crashing ....asset values disintgrating ( deflation ) food & energy rising ( inflatioN ) . In the supercycle crash PM's will be the only asset to increase in ( relative and/or real ) value IMHO

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:33 - ID#250121)
shortage at low...
Are you suggesting we are seeing the shadows of a short squeeze?

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:34 - ID#242328)
Japanese Banking System - History - Bring Your Fork

Full article at Orlin Grabbe's website


International Herald Tribune, Sept 9, 1998
19 Largest Banks Have Negative Capital

TOKYO - The head of the government economic agency said Tuesday Japan could tumble into a dangerous deflationary spiral, as banking experts here warned that Japan's huge financial problems could rapidly deteriorate if government inaction continued.

''The banking system is quickly worsening,'' said Naoko Nemoto, a banking analyst at Standard & Poor's.


In the article, Mrs. Ohara calculated that on Aug. 28, Japan's 19 major banks had more liabilities than assets. She estimated that the largest 19 banks would be $7.6 billion in the hole, if banks were required to write off significant portions of their bad loans. ''The amount of bad loans has expanded like a snowball sliding down a slope,'' said Seiroku Kajiyama, a Liberal Democratic Party politician and banking-reform advocate who ran against Keizo Obuchi this summer for the post of prime minister. In an article for the October edition of ''Bungei Shunju'' magazine, Mr. Kajiyama wrote that the $229 billion in rescue funds approved by the government last winter was sufficient then to deal with the banking problem. ''But since the government has not thoroughly dealt with the bad-loan problem, Japan is now at a critical stage,'' where even $382 billion might not be enough, he said, according to Reuters.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:34 - ID#261155)
@when my 1998 puter
won't pass sharfins damn y2k clock test I ain't so much pissed as scared......that nobody knows the trouble I will see!!!!! in y2k disney
land...... when mickey and minney go wee wee instead of hee hee...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:35 - ID#26793)
Markets not impressed with Brazilian anti-crisis measures

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:36 - ID#242328)
.45 SMG


(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:38 - ID#252391)
Japanese cut interest rates to 1/4%
Cutting intersts rates by 50% from .5 % to .25%

This is desperation!!!!!

European stocks jumping back, Yen back to 136 from 131 earlier , and my little SPY short was looking so much better - off to 105 -108 in all this irrational exhuberance.

lefty kiwi
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:41 - ID#32176)
Aurator re short squeeze
My considered answer on the one hand yes , then again no ...well maybe.
Seriously though if the gold markets are Manipulated and I think they are ....then the CB's will decide the POG .... If they are actually trying to restock their reserves they would want to keep the price down to shake out weak holders .... the more physical they can get the better their balance sheet will look when they inevitably massively revalue the POG . Y2K buyers and Kitcoites are just nasty irritants in their biiger picture , Dont let them get you.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:41 - ID#261155)
@they were real popular in the 30's
donald, and WWII, you seen them in all the old elliot ness movies...
mostly with the 60 round clip...... I like the 30 myself.....make you poor to pack 30 much lessa 60, and jezzzzzzz if you need a 60, you best be someplace else....... :- )

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:42 - ID#242328)
Japanese Interest Rates????


Heck. In retail terms, borrowing in Japan is now 50% off. : )

Time for a buyin spree. : )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:44 - ID#26793)
Mexican inflation expected to hit 17% at this peso exchange level

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:44 - ID#252391)
S&P loss only 500 points,now
Euro short rates up 6-7 basis points, gold off $2, yen at 136.32

The Japanese rate cut is for interbank lending.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:52 - ID#252391)
Jiel or Jeil charts
I can't call up this URL either. Is this the guy with the blue and yellow line on his charts and the actual lies over the projected. The imporession the charts give you is that the tracking has been accurately occuring and will continue. This is the trick to these charts. One sees the lines running together and assumes that the developer of the system has accurately made the projection with 100% accuracy and will into the future......

I think its a scam . . . but then I can not pick up the URL.

I do have a small SPY short position which I look to have the prospect of being able to at higer prices soon - and I sold my HM.

Is there anything else Jeil's opr Jiel's charts warn me against.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:54 - ID#340262)
From Bad To Worse
A.G. remarks on U.S. interest rates in addition to sparking
a buying panic on Wall St. appears to be triggering a
flight of capital out of Asia and perhaps South America -
perhaps worsening the current world economic crises rather
dramatically - cjk -

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:55 - ID#26793)
Scroll to the bottom of the Jeil page. He explains that he adjusts it to match after the fact. Read the fine print.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:55 - ID#185448)
lefty kiwi
I have some sympathy also with my friends from various CBs, not the Dutch and the Belgian, the Canadian and the Australian maybe, as they massively dumpedthe price via real sales as well as via the negative odoeur they spilled over gold. The difference between us and them may be a different attitude towards time. They have plenty of it and they act acordingly. At least they could.

Anyone else noticed that gold & euro has not been a topic during recent times? Supports my hypothesis that the percentage of gold-backing as well as the price at which euro-CB will put it into their books has not yet been definitely fixed. Duisenberg runs a wait-and-see-policy which I think is reasonable, as some parameters of the backing-decision cant be estimated with sufficient accuracy now. And any statement or action from ECB could and would trigger reactions on the markets that could turn the intended effect into the opposite direction. Thats the way announcement from this party should be evaluated until a definite, written, sealed and stamped statement on ECP-letter-paper has been passed on.

They did not sell big scale-what they should have done if they really ever intended to do so. They keep it, at least most of it. 404 me, when Im wrong.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 05:58 - ID#26793)
Venezuelan pres. candidate will demand debt re-negotiation but will not default.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:04 - ID#185448)
re Japan

Will we see negative rates and/or a Keynesian liquidity trap with monetary impotence? When the last tool of financial politics was used, we will learn that you cant eat deflation.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:06 - ID#250121)
right brain mathematics.......
not a scam, but an unintentional retrospective re-analysis after the event, that makes the fit look better than it is.

A feedback loop that distorts data.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:07 - ID#252391)
I'd love to read the fine print but the URL won't come up.

Yes, that's the point he adjusts his perdiction to what occurs and lets you think that was his prediction. If any body should have his past perdictions I don't think they been any more accurate as to exact timing than others. To his credit he has been bearsih on stocks and HM and maybe his timing has been great. It would be interesting to know. Certainly, looking at his yellow and blue lines you'd think so . . . . but I can do that, too - take a chart and extend it based on my feelings for the forthcoming squigels. Then not tell anybody how I missed and attach the chart to my yellow lines - its a scam - but he has had the general direction correct.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:07 - ID#256202)
aurator / Y2K
Thanks for the welcome. On Y2K; For three years I was a programmer for a company that wrote systems for the HMO / IPA industry. When I left the company in 1991, 17 companies used are HMO / IPA management/accounting system. It used a two digit year field throughout the system. Worse than that, virtually every major HMO in the industry at the time circulated client data membership on Mag tape. This was used so that the IPA's could update their roles electronically. I wrote the module that converted ( at that time 11 ) different database structures from 13 different HMO computer systems into are systems format for updating client lists. I can not remember a single one that used 4 digit dates. Bad data will cause some modules to abort and some to calculate and store false data. If this is not corrected on an industry wide scale, it will be a serious mess for all concerned, doctors, patients, HMO's, and pharmacies. I have moderate to severe asthma and I have begun to stockpile asthma medicine. Maybe food, cash, and gold are not a bad idea either!

John Disney
(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:08 - ID#24135)
Its No Scam
I recall that jeil explained this
at the outset .. He has been mis..
interpreted ..
This frequently happens to great

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:13 - ID#43349)
For those who are interested
Jeil's server is back up.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:19 - ID#252391)
Yeh, that's what I meant..... Fellow comes out about every two months and his stuff gets picked up, here, and always gets lots of attention. I think its the mix of the yellow and blue lines. More people with a guess on the direction of things to come ought to do the same is obviously quite effective....key point is: he has been pretty correct on the trend.

Metals back to following the dollar, My bet on the S&P is for an inside day - typical following a big move. I'll draw my yellow line down to $275 on gold into October.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:20 - ID#250121)
Tall Poppy

I know that you know what you mean with HMO/IPA but I haven't a clue
My company also sells accounting software, Y2K compliant, which, as I say to my clients, may be cold comfort if we got no power.

I suspect we shall have power. In any event, we shall be the first country on this great gold world to know that we ain't got power. Just as we lead the world in Social reform, Universal suffrage, the Stamp Vending Machine, the Safety Pin, Mt Everest, baths per household and sheep per man, we shall lead the world into the 1/1/00.

If you suffer from asthma, this ( NZ ) is the worst place to be. We have the highest asthma rate in the world. Are there any natural compounds you can generate? For example, it is possible for diabetics to "manufacture" insulin as a "cottage" industry, given sufficient sheep's pancreas?

If anyone suffers from a debilitatind disease, it will behove you to discover whether you can manufacture the cure.

got morpheus?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:27 - ID#43349)
It's not a scam. He's takes the trend plus a great number of cyclic factors ( over 300 ) and fit's them up to the present moment to get the best fit possible. He then projects the fitted factors on into the future. As each new trading day occurs he throws out the oldest ( sorta ) and rolls in the newest and refits the curve.

Naturally the projection is not perfectly accurate because of unforseen events in the real world, but he also posts the results of past projections so you can see how the graphs change and progress in time.

This method thus takes into account overall trend, political cycle, yearly seasonal cycles, quarterly cycles, and many others cyclical factors that have affeted the price movement up to the current moment. A sort of super trend-is-your-friend kind of thing.

Naturally, as in any kind of prognostication, the real world is perverse and does not always go as expected, but this method does at least take one's emotional hopes and fears out of the equation and give a more objective peg upon to which to hang one's hat.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:34 - ID#250121)
attitude of gratitude~~~signing off~~~~
Is your analysis of Jeil any different from mine?

Always grateful for all input.

Especially grateful to our host -----Bart@Kitner---

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:36 - ID#185448)

Sorry, did you say, you hope to have electricity back in 00 ??

BTW: WE claim the typewriter, the sewing-machine, the highest suicide-rate, libido & the oedibus-complex ( copyright Ziggy Freud ) , Masochism ( by genious doctor Sacher-Masoch ) and Sachertorte ( not Sacher-Masoch, simply Sacher ) .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:38 - ID#252391)
Ok Ok, saw the charts. So everyday Jeil or Jiel has a new projection - sounds too much like myself. My question is how does he get HM under zero as appears in one of his charts. Boy, when they are giving HM shares away I hope he posts where the line forms.

Personally, I'd like to see the S&P drop here, though I don't think it will very much very soon , just so Peutz could have the last ironic laugh.

My projection based on my secret formula of yellow and blue ink is , is ,

well, it's ever changing.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:41 - ID#412286)
1300 in 2000.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:43 - ID#242325)
Bear ain't over. Not by a long shot.

Market Commentary:

Talk about volatility! A Greenspan induced euphoria led to a melt-up
Tuesday, with the blue-chip averages up a whopping 5% in one day. We
told subscribers yesterday that a massive short-covering rally might
take the market up to our target area of 1010-1020 SPX within the
trading day Tuesday, but we expected that resistance level to hold.
After an initial unsuccesful attempt to break above this resitance in
the morning hours, a late day rally pushed the S&P up through last weeks
intraday high, and on to 1023.06 before closing at 1022.38. It now
appears likely that the S&P will make a tag of the neckline of the
previous head and shoulders top at the 1040-1050 area. This could happen
as early as this Wednesday. Our cycle analysis calls for a short-term
top within the 2 trading days. Since Wednesdays tend to produce
short-term turning points, we would ideally expect this rally to come to
an end Wednesday.
The 5% in one day "Greenspan rally" will likely garner quite a few
headlines in Wednesdays newspapers, and thus instill a new sense of
complacency among the general public. But this will only create another
opportunity for the smart money to distribute more shares to a public
which will soon feel a tremendous case of buyer's remorse. Remember,
this is a bear market rally, and the lion's share of the gains have
already been made in Tuesday's melt-up. We definitely don't want to
chase this move at this point.
Short-term sentiment readings do not bode well for much further
advance on this rally. The OEX put/call ratio dropped to .90 on Tuesday,
a sign of the euphoria which washed over market participants. In
additon, the open interest ratio of puts to calls in the OEX is only .68
. This is very low, and shows that traders are really stocking up on
calls, and shunning puts. I guess there's no need to worry about any
more downside, since uncle Al and the plunge protection crew are ready
to cut rates at a moments notice. HA! If you buy that one we have a
bridge to sell you. In our opinion, there are way too many true
believers at this stage of the rally to expect much more upside, beyond
a day and 20 or so SPX points. So, while we would not be surprised to
see a tag of 1040 SPX Wednesday, we think this rally is already somewhat
long in the tooth, and could turn downward at any time now.
Our proprietary buy/sell indicator gave another buy signal at the
close Tuesday, but buy signals lately have been subject to whipsaws.
This buy signal will likely be no exception. This is especially true
considering that with Tuesday's melt-up this indicator is now very close
to a sell signal. It looks like it could produce a sell signal sometime
between this Thursday and next Monday.
Market internals are improving, and are a definite bright spot for
bulls. Breadth was the best we have seen in a very long time, with
advancers breating decliners by better than 4 to 1, at 2501 to 613
issues. New lows also dropped dramatically to 134 issues. However, this
is still a very high number, and is indicative of a bear market rally.
New highs expanded to 24, but similarly this is a very weak level, and
is indicative of a bear market rally. Volume was rather lackluster at
816 million shares, especially considering the blockbuster nature of
Tuesday's rally. This lackluster volume would seem to suggest that most
of Tuesday's gains were due to short covering rather than new buying. A
very high closing TICK of +925 was seen Tuesday. This coming on the
heels of a +842 closing TICK Friday. Also an intraday TICK of +1366 was
recorded, the highest TICK reading in over a year. This suggests that
the market is becoming overbought very quickly here, and at least raises
the possibilty that Tuesday's highs may be it for this rally. One more
negative for bulls is the closing ARMS or TRIN value of .39 . Such low
closing TRIN readings are rare, and typically point to a short-term top
of some sort.
So, we have gotten more than a dead-cat bounce on this rally, but we
feel that much of the upside momentum has already been spent to fuel
Tuesday's manic melt-up. Therefore, we are going to hold off on any
switching signals at this point and remain in our current Ursa trade. We
feel the odds are good that we will see a turning point high in the next
1-4 days. After this high is in, we then expect antoher very dramatic
decline to get underway.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:46 - ID#256202)
lefty kiwi
It is true that in a "crash" the market causes asset values to drop. This is due to the increased selling of these assets to garner hard currency/tradegoods. This produces a glut of assets combined with most consumer's lack of hard currency to buy these assets ( Thats why they are selling them in ther first place; to get currency ) , causes the assets value to drop steeply. However this applys to all domestically produced assets including food & fuel ( energy ) . I site for example:
During the last great depression, food did not inflate in price. Infact farmers literally dumped milk because it cost more to process & ship then what they received in return. Food remained cheap because it is a perishable comidity and if people have only a little money to buy food, and there is still a little profit than that little bit of money is better than nothing. On energy; Electricity prices where at an all time low. The electric companies actually made contracts to farmers for rates at 2.3c per KW for there lifetime if they would just connect. I know of a farmer in Arizona who until she passed away a few years back continued to receive that rate!
However, if we are talking about hyperinflation than everything inflates in value relative to the soon to be worthless paper money. In this case gold, silver, food staples, fuel, tires, ect. become the substitue for paper money.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:46 - ID#256381)
CNBC Biased?
Nick@C ( 1:22 ) What do you expect, mate? Of course they are going to be leaping up and down about the Dow's surge and the fact that the U.S. Gold stocks didn't participate.

Note that Asia was mostly down today, as is Europe as I write this. The only European market that is up big time ( 8% plus ) is the Russian market. That's not a good bedfellow for the Dow, S&P et al is it?

Somebody posted on Kitco earlier that I have not said that it's time to buy Gold stocks. Actually, I haven't said anything about Gold stocks here or on my website. But there's one thing I know. The best Gold stock upmoves are signalled by a confirmed technical bottom on Gold - a la 1982, 1986, 1993. So far, we haven't got that yet this time.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:51 - ID#365216)
When the going gets tough..........
In preparing for the worst and hoping for the best by stockpiling
goods, gold, cash, etc. let us not forget that ultimately we should
"place our faith not in things of this world but the next."

If we seek to prepare and to help others and our number still comes up,
then we will be just that more prepared to answer our Creator on
Judgement Day.

That is all.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:51 - ID#250121)

1. our NZ young men between 16-20 have the highest suicide rate in the world ( there's still not enough sheep for everyone ) can anyone spell ANOMIE?
2.the word "Typewriter" originally meant the person who operated the typwriting machine.
3. Dr. Sigmund Freud was messing around in scatology when he noted "our fascination with gold is related to the erotic fantasies of early childhood."

4. Dr Maso kissed must have been some fellow to have been a patient of.

5. Retired soldier's email address was incorrect. He posted a correction about 1200 EST.

6. Good night. Cin__cin__Fred@Illumination_Vienna

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:55 - ID#29048)
WSJ Precious Metals report
September 9, 1998
Russia Increases Sales Of Precious Metals


LONDON -- Russia is stepping up sales of platinum and palladium, traders said. "They were out of the market until late summer, but in the past few weeks the market is awash with Russian platinum and palladium," a Japanese trader said.

The price of platinum, which fell $4 to $360 an ounce in London, is 17% below its 1998 peak, seen in April. Palladium, which slid $6 to $280 an ounce, is 33% beneath its May 1998 top. Russia, the world's biggest producer of palladium and the second-biggest platinum miner after South Africa, hadn't exported for months, he said. Just months ago, the annual borrowing costs of palladium exceeded 100% and platinum 40%, the trader said. Now annual lease rates are down to 13% and 4%, he adds.

The sales of platinum and palladium contrast with official statements that Russia intends to use the metals for loan collateral in preference to sales on world markets. Sergei Kyshtymov, the central bank's head of precious-metals operations, said the nation could use its stocks of platinum and palladium as collateral, though he didn't say when the bank intended do so. He and other officials have insisted in recent weeks that they wouldn't dump the metals on the market.

"They know that the price would collapse because the markets in both metals are illiquid when compared with gold," a trader at a Japanese merchant said. Despite their statements, the Russians are meeting direct-sales contracts with Japanese auto makers, jewelers and other consumers, the trader said. Russia has also been delivering the metal to New York merchants and banks via Switzerland, he said. Precious-metals traders believe that Russia negotiated a gold swap in August for at least 200 metric tons, or about two-fifths of its monetary reserves. But they doubt whether platinum and palladium would be worthwhile backing for loans.

Ted Arnold, London-based metals analyst at Merrill Lynch, said in a report that palladium could slide to $200 an ounce and platinum to $350 an ounce because of growing fears that the Russian central bank could sell metal from its vaults. He adds that there are unconfirmed rumors that the central bank holds 200 tons of palladium in its vaults. Traders also believe that a Western bank provided Russia with credits backed by palladium, and that if the interest isn't met the palladium could be sold. Russian officials, however, denied that they would sell more than
the normal export quota, because such sales would cause a collapse in prices.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:56 - ID#412286)
are starting to jive. We are seeing inverse relationship between Dow and gold. Friday was a beautiful example. They are trying to prop dow but just too many balls to juggle, reverse is true in suppressing gold. The case for gold is compelling with what is happening one morn it will just explode and that will be it. The dollar demise started Greenspan with Japan rate cut have now played LAST card. Sayanora.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:57 - ID#26793)
Who says gold is dead? (Chance to vote for gold)

(Wed Sep 09 1998 06:58 - ID#29048)
Bill Buckler
What would a confirmed technical bottom look like?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:04 - ID#250121)

"If we seek to prepare and to help others and our number still comes up then we will be just that more prepared to answer....."

Why we allowed ourselves to be created for this

Why we created ourselves for this

Why this is all a Turin experiment and TED is the only REAL human on this planet, the rest of us are just a figment of TED's imagination.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:11 - ID#256202)
aurator (tall poppys)
Well there is theophiline which can be processed from tea leaves but you can't grow tea here in AZ. Adreniline could be extracted from animals but that has horrible side affects and so do the alfa & beta receptor stimulating amphetamines. Medicines that only stimulate the beta ( lung ) receptors are simply not naturally occuring. I think the best idea is to get a nice big prescription from the doc, and stock up. I have bought a bit of gold also. Gold will always buy you anything, anytime, and anywhere unless of course the government makes it illegal to own!

Bully Beef
(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:13 - ID#259282)
Front page of Ottawa Citizen yesterday talked about the end of gold.
The second story on the front page was the Wizard of OZ being an allegory on looking for the gold standard. Reality mimicking fiction. These two storie were second to the Swiss air crash. Gold really will have to fight for recognition.The forces against it are tremendous. I don't think the rich and powerful want common men and women running to gold because it will devalue their paper assets. Dump paper... buy gold!!! or just snivel in poverty like me...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:14 - ID#289357)
jims & Gollum @ Jeil's charts

I agree with Gollum - the best thing about these projections is that they take the emotions about gold or gold mining stocks or the particular company's earnings out of the picture. Jeil's charts don't say anything about a path forward for gold, only about STOCKS.

What concerns me is the possibility that the stock market will abruptly start trading on fear and panic, not on greed or profits or projected earnings - and the money will retreat quickly to the safest place. We all know that the public does not perceive gold mining stocks as anything but risky investments, and it is probable that they will drop them like a hot poker, as they have in past panics. They will sell EVERYTHING.

John Disney is correct, I am sure, in forecasting stellar earnings for the South African gold miners in the coming quarterly reports. However, if panic arrives before the quarterly reports, the earnings will be of no consequence in the short run.

Is this method any better than Advanced GET or other Elliott Wave methods ( now predicting a bottom ) for forecasting trends? I don't know. However, if the trend continues down from here in the next couple days I will assume that it is, until proven otherwise - and I will sell.

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:20 - ID#384350)
FT says that All's not well in Russland
Next update 1300 GMT
Russia's Lebed warns of revolt

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:22 - ID#43185)
Yeah. I guess any projection that's worth it's salt should be ever changing until somebody finds some reliable way to fortell the future.

A projection is just a best guess as to how things should go based upon everything we know up til now. That is to say, if nothing changes in an unforseen way.

If out of the blue, Canada declares war on Mexico, then one would change ones projection.

Jeil's projection method seems to work for him and it is a dynamic ever changing one. I wouldn't trust a projection that's locked in concrete and unyielding to the ongoing change of events. Of course, I don't particulary trust a dynamic one either.

In the final analysis; what is,is.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:24 - ID#252391)
Yes, I agree, reduced some of my precious metal investment yesterday on the rally. Short the SPY - will add to short position on a rally to 105, which because I am already short we will surely see.

I suspect the spinsters will fiqure out some reason to put a positive face on things today. The GLobex has come back from a 2000 point deficit to be only 700 points lower after the Japanese announcement. The stock market isn't ready to turn over yet, but when it does I see golds under preasure. Maybe testing August 31 lows or dong 50% retracements on light volumn. Some of Jeil's charts seem to pick mid October for the low - who has he been reading. Give me a blue and yellow crayon, please.

Yen now 137.65

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:30 - ID#284255)
Good comment.
Please accept my apologies.

Just turning over stones.
Please keep us informed of what you find out locally.
Nothing promising up here to the north.

A different view?
Email chatter:

A Compass For Moral Excellence
Published Worldwide From Washington

September 8, 1998
The Moment Of Truth

Starting this week we have a new system for delivering Exegesis.

If you would like to subscribe to Exegesis put SUBSCRIBE in the
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The hour has come for you to wake up from your slumber, because
our salvation is nearer now than when we first believed. The
night is nearly over; the day is almost here. So let us put aside
the deeds of darkness and put on the armor of light.

Romans 13: 11-12

During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a
revolutionary act.

George Orwell

The game is up. Bill Clinton has been told by the power-brokers
who run America that he must go. He is preparing his exit
strategy. In a few days, we'll know which method he has chosen.
As some know, real decisions in America are made not by the
President, Congress or any elected official, but by a small group
of powerful people who control the media, the energy, the
electoral system and much else. Presidents are elected by and
serve solely at the pleasure of this group. Because Bill Clinton
was so closely connected with the late Winthrop Rockefeller - it
is said that Clinton is his illegitimate grandson - he had always
thought he would be immune from the consequences of his actions,
and from the wrath of the ruling elite.

As in so many other matters, he was greatly mistaken, as perhaps
were they to entrust him with such power. As William Rees-Mogg
wrote in The Times yesterday: "It is not a good idea to make a
charismatic sociopath the leader of one's party, or the President
of one's country. He has no moral compass; he does not know
right from wrong." He almost committed the ultimate sin: for
the first time since Woodrow Wilson's unguarded remark in 1912,
he publicly alluded to their existence.

In WorldNet Daily yesterday, Missy Kelly wrote of Mr. Clinton's
weekend indiscretions in Ireland, where he made one of the most
reckless remarks of his life: "You know, by the time you become
the leader of a country, someone else makes all the decisions.
You may find you can get away with virtual presidents, virtual
prime ministers, virtual everything." Mr. Clinton thus
acknowledged that he is as irrelevant as he feared three years
ago, but for a different reason: he is irrelevant to the agenda.
He has contented himself with a decadent life in the White
House, enjoying the trappings of power, bombing the odd country
here and there, molesting a few women on the side and puffing at
his now-famous cigars. He wasn't advancing "the Agenda" but
wasn't really harming it either. This weekend though, he made
what will prove to be a fatal error.

The power brokers know it all: they know about the Waco massacre,
the death of Vincent Foster and the subsequent cover-up,
Whitewater, Castle Grande, drug-smuggling through Mena Airport,
Hillary Clinton's cattle futures miracle, a thousand purloined
FBI files, Billy Dale and the other Travel Office firings,
Gennifer Flowers, Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Monica Lewinsky,
adultery, lying under oath, the 107 dead bodies, drug use in the
White House, threats by James Carville ( "Ken Starr is one mistake
away from having no knee caps." ) , Ron Brown's unresolved death,
William Colby's unresolved death, "I didn't inhale.", "I never
had sex with that woman.", "My answers were legally accurate.",
treason by selling America's nuclear secrets to the Communist
Chinese, and much, much more. And through carefully orchestrated
leaks down the line of command to the media in the days ahead,
they will begin to reveal the truth about one after another of
these matters until they shame Mr. Clinton into resignation. And
if he persists, he runs the risk of being added to the list of
Arkancide victims.

As Missy Kelly writes: "By his own admission, he was a front,
with no power to make decisions. By his own admission, they were
made for him, by 'someone else'. Bill's job was to pretend -
pretend he was the leader, pretend he was in charge - maintain
the faade of a 'virtual' president in a 'virtual' democracy
where a 'virtual' rule of law exists. In fact, the levers of
power were already controlled - controlled so precisely, in fact,
as to make the president irrelevant, controlled by people who
have never been elected to office, and whose names we do not even
know." Well, we know some of them.

That's why there cannot be impeachment hearings. In Mr.
Clinton's present defiant mood, he could spill the beans
altogether, the last thing that would be permitted. If Hillary
has sworn allegiance to the global elite and their communist
agenda, as we believe, she will be rewarded, and may even have
negotiated the job as Al Gore's Vice-President. It could happen
within the next two weeks: such a maneuver would be a virtual
coup d'etat, especially if Mr. Gore is then obliged to resign
too. But it would be risky. The safer choice would be a
peaceful transition of power and the planned succession of Gov.
George Bush in 2000. Resignation is the only way for now. And
it will be sooner rather than later, probably within a few days.
And if he doesn't stop his loose-lipped blathering, the elite
will have to find a way of stopping it for him.

The world, Russia and America in particular, is under the
fiercest spiritual attack. The battle is raging as the unseen
powers of evil change the scenery in order to hold on to power.
If America is to learn its lessons from the tyranny of the
Clinton regime, we must watch carefully as the transition takes
place and watch how God reveals to us lesser mortals the secrets
that, until now, only a few have known.

There is a great temptation to believe that the next regime will
be less evil than the outgoing one. It will be less blatant, but
the fall of Bill Clinton, so long in coming and now apparently so
near, marks merely the end of one especially sordid chapter. It
does not mark the end of the reign of evil, nor of the control of
America by the dark forces behind the scenes.

For the past three years, we have devoted many columns to
exposing the deeds of darkness here in Washington. We have been
accused, ridiculed and marginalized for doing so, but not for one
moment have we ever contemplated diluting or falsifying the
facts. Never have we been discouraged, deterred or shaken,
because we knew the mission that had to be accomplished. As
ever, only the truth, and the whole truth, can set us free. And
though Mr. Clinton has seemed determined to ensure that the real
truth remained secret, he has lost control of his situation, and
may now at last perform a real service for his country by shining
the light of truth into the darkest place. Now we stand at a
historic moment: the whole of America and the world will learn
in the coming days much of what Exegesis readers already know.
And there will be profound shock. It is our prayer that the full
truth be revealed, because only with all the facts before us can
we take stock of where we are and readjust our moral periscopes.

Soon, time and effort must be invested to rebuild the walls of
the damaged city. First though, we must focus on the transition.
Which mode of exit will Mr. Clinton choose? Like most bullies,
he is not a brave man and his personal preference will be to
manipulate the facts to earn his much-desired place in history.
That option, though, is no longer available to him. He will have
to settle for second-best: A timely resignation blaming the
'vast right-wing conspiracy'? An 'accident'? In a very few
days, we shall know.

In the midst of the battle, where are the Christian politicians?
Few have stepped forward to say what must be said. "After you",
they say, "No, after you." And so it was not a Christian at all
who spoke the first words. It was Senator Joseph Lieberman
( D-CT ) , an Orthodox Jew, who called the President's recent
conduct "a serious challenge to our democracy".

He repeated his concern that America's moral standards are
sinking, and mentioned that he had previously held the
entertainment industry responsible. "And now," he added,
"because the President commands at least as much attention and
exerts at least as much influence on our collective consciousness
as any Hollywood celebrity or television show, it is hard to
ignore the impact of the misconduct the president has admitted to
on our culture, on our character and on our children."

In words any believer would have been proud to use, Senator
Lieberman continued: "I know that the President is far from
alone in the wrongdoing he has admitted. We as humans are all
imperfect. We are all sinners. Many have betrayed a loved one and
most have told lies. Members of Congress have certainly been
guilty of such behavior, as have some previous presidents. We try
to understand - we must try to understand the complexity and
difficulty of personal relationships, which should give us pause
before passing judgment on them. We all fall short of the
standards our best values set for us. Certainly I do."

Bravo, sir! But where are the believers? Was there not a single
Christian who could have said that? Are they hiding in
embarrassment or overcome with shyness? This is a time for
strong hearts, clear heads and a fast finger on the remote
control, lest children be watching the TV news. Who has the
courage to tell the truth? The one who comes closest to telling
the truth may be, of all people, Bill Clinton himself, not
because he has courage but because he feels vindictive. He may
reason that he no longer has anything to lose. And telling the
whole truth, all of it, will certainly earn him his place in

The other night, I dreamed the world was in chaos: that Russia
was ruled by a power-crazed alcoholic and America by a sex-crazed
lunatic who had to settle for bombing a medicine factory, a few
tents and a herd of goats thousands of miles away when he
couldn't bomb the home of Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr, as
may have been his real desire. Incidentally, if the target was
really Osama bin Laden, perhaps Mr. Clinton's Administration
would care to explain why the US Government gave his family the
contract for building a US Air Force base in Saudi Arabia after
the 1996 bombing of Khobar Towers in Dhahran. Mr. Clinton's
recent misadventures in Sudan and Afghanistan cost the taxpayers
at least $500 million; and this same fellow complains about a
$29.6 million investigation which has resulted in a dozen
convictions so far and is about to ensure his downfall. Maybe
I'll drink some warm milk before bed in future.

There has been another shining light on Capitol Hill: Majority
Whip Tom DeLay, who has remained true to his Christian ideals,
and we salute him. "What makes DeLay different than many of his
colleagues is that he doesn't operate out of fear," wrote Paul
Weyrich recently. By contrast, Speaker Newt Gingrich has
appeared to shy away from the idea of impeachment, saying he
would want to see "a pattern of felonies" before taking action.
But the power has been taken out of Newt's hands, even though
there was an extremely long pattern of felonies from which he
could have chosen.

This dangerous moment in world history demands solid leadership.
Instead we have a pair of disgraced addicts in the White House
and the Kremlin. Beloved, we must be in prayer for the world and
we must start to take stock of the real truth. As Franklin
Graham so succinctly wrote in the Wall Street Journal last week:
"If Mr. Clinton will lie to or mislead his wife and daughter,
those with whom he is most intimate, what will prevent him from
doing the same to the American public?"

As Mr. Graham knows, Mr. Clinton and his colleagues have lied so
grossly to the American public that you will be able to hear the
gasp of shock from across the Atlantic when Kenneth Starr's
report becomes public. And, as often in such cases, perhaps Bill
Clinton's worst lies were told to himself. Most recently, he
told himself the lie that he could outfox the global elite. And
he is about to pay the price for that one.

Franklin Graham again: "Mr. Clinton's sin can be forgiven, but
he must start by admitting to it and refraining from legalistic
doublespeak. According to the Scripture, the president did not
have an 'inappropriate relationship' with Monica Lewinsky - he
committed adultery. He didn't "mislead" his wife and us - he
lied. Acknowledgment must be coupled with genuine remorse. A
repentant spirit that says, 'I'm sorry. I was wrong. I won't do
it again. I ask for your forgiveness,' would go a long way
toward personal and national healing." It may be too late to
save his presidency, but the Arkancide scenario aside, it isn't
too late to save the man and, most importantly, to save his soul.

National healing there must be, but first there must be a time of
truth-telling and a clear-cut farewell to Mr. Clinton, whichever
way he chooses to depart. America is still a great country, with
immense wealth in its people, a national spirit of hard work and
goodness and a deep desire to succeed. And perhaps there will
now be a reassessment of national feeling and a new desire to
recapture lost freedom, honesty and morality. Can it be done?
Indeed it can, and it is part of our mission to encourage and
point the way.

Last week, Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher gave a
rare interview to The Times of London. Europe, she said, has
been in her lifetime "the source of our problems, not the source
of our solutions. It's America and Britain that saved the world."
Speaking of the European Union, and perhaps of other
international elite groupings of nations and business leaders,
she added: "We don't want to be dissolved into any amorphous
group. We wish to keep our [national] identity, our language,
our pride, our customs and to co-operate with nations with their
own pride, own monarchies, own customs. We are no longer free,
and I think it's got to stop." It is in our hands to seize back
what has been lost.

We know how the story will end for the evil ones. Here's a sneak
preview: "And the devil, who deceived them, was thrown into the
lake of burning sulfur, where the beast and the false prophet had
been thrown. They will be tormented day and night for ever and
ever." ( Revelation 20:10 )

We also know that it is in God's nature to show mercy if only we
will turn to Him and confess our sins and our inadequacy. After
Jesus was tempted by the devil and sent him away, a verse in the
Gospel shows God's ever-present lovingkindness: "Then the devil
left him, and behold, angels came and ministered to him."
( Matthew 4: 11 ) . Thus will the angels minister to America if we
will turn back to our Heavenly Father. We have tried the way of
the devil. Now, it is time to try God's way.  Steve Myers 

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:40 - ID#365216)
to aurator
Sorry; I don't understand your post. The only TED I know of is
the T-Bill EuroDollar spread used to capitalize on differences in the
dollar here and abroad.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:50 - ID#26350)
Gold in the New Millenium
When I was at the library this weekend I saw a lot of buy recommendations on major gold companies and also the major oils. In a way they aren't speculations ( as the juniors are ) and have become an undervalued sector of the global stock markets. Run up right now a bit, but in general, if Greenspan manages to keep the markets afloat at all, the money will rotate around to the undervalued sectors. Checking the Fidelity Gold and Precious Metals Select Funds -- they have never had a profitable history, but I've never lost money on them buying low and selling when the price has increased. There is a lot of risk in technology stocks also--junior technology, junior medical companies, anything that is "starting up" and eventually will be gobbled up by a larger company. Reading over newsletters this weekend, I also notice that most of the editors are recommending gold stocks the way they did in 1993,94 right before there was a run up in the mining stock prices. When the junior market was topping out, they were all saying "overpriced," so were giving accurate advice at that point. Of course in 93 the overall markets weren't in a slump, so I guess that is the wildcard in this hand. Regards.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 07:53 - ID#287114)
The statements of Margaret Thatcher in regards to Britain maintaining their culture & independance seem rather interesting. After WWII, Winston Churchill, on 2 separate occasions, called for a United States of Europe. With the advent of the Euro, this seems interesting in respect to Britain going their own way. I have been told recently that Scotland and Ireland have their own currency. I do not know if this is true, but if it is, to me, it would seem to border on nonsense. To have 3 currencies in such a small area, under 1 government. Perhaps someone on this forum can enlighten me on the facts of this.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:07 - ID#185448)
Republic of Ireland runs its own currency ( Irish coffee - h sorry - Pound ) - not Scotland. But they have great single-malt-whisky like Oban or Tallisker ( to name some of the more popular ones ) .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:09 - ID#238422)
RJ, Statement from the Kremlin
Dear comrade RJ, as we promised in our previous statement
to you last time, we indeedy dumped, dump and will dump
this thingie....damn, keep forgetting the name...ah,dah,
pla...dium...or what it was called..Anyway, we always
preferred not to drink this...sako, net, net, ah, dah, saki...
damn..sake stuff...rice poison...we were born and raised on
pure grain prroducts, dahhh..Anyway, sake seems to be
workkiinggg., if to put 6 doubles in one our
Kremlin doctor recommended..

As to the rumors that we are selling zis silvarrrr, zat
iz zi rumarrrr created by some drunken capitalistic dog,
who is robbing poor people of America....Where in the hell
we gonna get zis silvarrr, from our pants...???? Last time
we checked Kremlin basement, there were no silva...rrr...only
zis pladiummmm..hah.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:12 - ID#185448)
And 2 governments, as rep Ireland is a sovereign country ( "Eire" ) . Scotland is part of GB. No government but the british one.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:18 - ID#287114)
Is a Irish Punt the same as a British pound?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:23 - ID#229207)
More $ to run scared out of Japan and Europe into the USA?
The US bond market's looking iffy, what with all this jawboning about interest rates drops and all. How about that stock market, tho? Woooohooooo! Let's paaaaarty!

How much does the DOW extend today? More sheep led into the pen for later fleecing? Baaaaa! Baaaaaaaaaaa!

Off to try to make some money the hard way... work.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:32 - ID#185448)
No, its not the same.

BTW: I would definitely not ask this question in an Irish Pub.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:34 - ID#290172)
.subject MJIB probes sale of Soros funds
from CHINA NEWS, 02 September 1998

Amid press reports that US investor George Soros is setting his sights on Taiwan, the Ministry of Justice's Investigation Bureau ( MJIB ) said yesterday that it is closely watching Soros' financial movements in Taiwan markets.

They theorize that, in most cases, customers are asked to remit money to banking accounts outside Taiwan to avoid detection by government authorities, they said. Investigators warned customers that funds remitted to such offshore accounts may be pocketed rather than properly invested.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:42 - ID#289357)
XAU Technical Analysis - update

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:45 - ID#410194)
@Farfel Re: Silver double-digits
No Farfel,you misread some posts again. LGB has always been bullish on Silver but for the very long haul, he is a LONG TERM investor in it, he doesn't care about the short term. He said it often.

You did give it a time limit though and you said that Silver's prices will be going into the double-digits ( ! ) by summer's arrival.

Could you please tell us why do you think it didn't happen and what did you base your spectacular predictions on?

Silver has been going own since the beginning of March.


Date: Mon Mar 02 1998 01:54
Silver...the recent, huge advance in silver leaves many doubters expecting the top is now in. Skeptics such as Martin Armstrong note that backwardation in the metal is the sure indicator that bullish mania has gone beyond sustainability and the metal is ready to tumble. Yet, silver is a very unique commodity in a very unique time in our history. At this point, it has far more positives than negatives. Despite this fact, it will remain highly volatile on its way toward its double digit destiny by Summer's arrival.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:45 - ID#290172)
.subject Siew's first year pulls mixed reviews
from CHINA NEWS, 01 September 1998

The prevailing sentiment among local businesspeople is still one of gloom. This is evident in the results of a survey conducted last month by the Chinese National Federation of Industries ( CNFI ) , an umbrella organization of 135 trade groups representing over 100,000 companies. In the survey, 55.5 percent of respondents said they expect the second half of the year to be worse than the first half. Slightly more, 57.8 percent, said the global economy would see a further downturn.

Victor Hong, vice president of Hong Kong Bank, backs a growing clamor among bankers for another cut in bank reserve ratio requirements. In the first week of August, the Central Bank of China lowered the reserve ratio requirements by 20 to 50 basis points.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:51 - ID#290172)
Now here is an intriguing little story reparations?

American Firm to rebuild Shifa Factory
In a surprising move, Sudan is willing to grant an American firm the reconstruction tender of U.S.-bombed Shifa pharmaceutical factory. Sept.9

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:52 - ID#43185)
Whither tither?
Globex down, bonds up, dollar up up, PM's down, oil down. Looks like a retracement. Especially with day trader overhang from yesterday.

All aboard, going down.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:53 - ID#93241)
Regarding my post last night on railroads & Y2K, I'll have to do some follow-up on testimony in Bennett's committee. Thanks. My friend is familiar with shortline RR's, having been in involved in the acquisition of one in Indiana. Apparently on some of these small rail lines, manual switches are still used. A lot of these shortlines are being bought up & then scrapped rather than being modernized. I also would not be surprised by a lack of Y2K compliance on the major rail lines, considering the computer industry only started selling Y2K compliant products only since 95-96.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:56 - ID#43185)
Actually, I would avoid asking ANY question in an Irish pub. Especially on good St. Patty's day.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:59 - ID#26793)
BOJ interest rate cut puts pressure on Fed to do likewise

(Wed Sep 09 1998 08:59 - ID#213265)
@the scene
EB -- Thought you were just going to buy the dollar, and sell the DM. NOT torpedo the yen!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:00 - ID#93241)
POG dropping
Down to 284.15 in London this a.m.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:01 - ID#289357)
Elliott Wave Analysis for DJIA and US bonds

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:02 - ID#374348)
Japan Side Swipes Market!
Does anyone have any thoughts on what Japan is up to? For the last couple of weeks they have been warning currency markets that it would be dangerous to short the yen! Then they turn around and make a move that would obviously tank the yen? This has caught me way off base as I would never have guessed that they would lower rates..... Any comments please..

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:03 - ID#348286)
GOLD has been following the yens trails.
EX: Today Yen plunges to 138 and GOLD is down another 2.50 .
Is Japan really that important to GOLD ???

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:06 - ID#93241)
Are you flying this thing? Watch the altimeter please. And I'm tired of the same old yen/gold thing. Where are you takin' us?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:13 - ID#26793)
Gold gods angered by POG

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:19 - ID#337168)
Scottish Pound, Irish Punt
The Bank of Scotland issue their own currency, with a value exacly equal to the Bank Of England pound. It is printed as 1, 5, 10, 20, and 50
pound notes. Coins issued in Scotland are the 1 pound, 50p, 20p, 10p, 5p
and 1p. There are no longer one pound notes in England, making some shopkeepers in the south of England frown and play dumb if you try to use them, but they are quite common in the counties of the north of England, like Northumberland and Durham and are used interchangeably. Same in Scotland, the English pound notes and coins are accepted everywhere. Coins are the same size and can be used interchangably in phones or other machines.

The Bank of England pound is used in Northern Ireland and Wales, only Scotland print their own version of the pound. The reason for separate 'versions' of the pound is historical and there seems no reason to change it.

The Republic of Ireland, being a complely independent state since 1948 uses the Irish pound ( or punt ) is entirely separate from the British Pound

As of just now 1 GBP = 1.150170 IEP

Hope that clears that up!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:21 - ID#377211)
Scottish currency
True: Scotland recognizes two currencies... The British pound and its own scottish currency, usefull only locally though.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:21 - ID#26793)
OOPS! Gold gods also angered by Donald

EZ Believer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:21 - ID#173262)
Darkwing......Killtimer 4.8 installed and working.....Thankyou!!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:24 - ID#43185)
Sorry. I sold out to that Japanese investment banking consortium some time ago. They have a bunch of WW II pilots they hired on rather cheaply. I understand the pilot training program was able to save on costs because they only had to teach them how to take off.

I am still within hearing distance of the airport and this morning I am hearing a strange sound from over there. I can only describe it by saying it sounds a lot like the crash dive klaxons you hear on old submarine movies. What they are doing over there I do not know. Strange.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:25 - ID#290172)
MoReGold--re: yen/gold, dem/gold, XEU/gold, $/gold
BUNDLED TOGETHER ( until 1999, or complete global financial disaster )


Mon|3P:XEU.|3P:DEM.|3P:...|POG $

A CB tour de force!

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:28 - ID#341297)
Need a little help from my friends
Please help me with my 'wild' thoughts...

1. The USG needs lots of $$$$ next Apr. 15 so we will have a huge
surplus. Need BIG surplus so US$ can battle with the EURO.
2. Fact: We only pay taxes on profits. A "buy and hold investor" AKA
in for the long haul will not help the USG ... a la FED , AG, etc.
3. The more people sell, the more taxes. Problem.. How to make people
sell? How about scaring the hell out of them.Checkout the "spin" in
the WSJ, Barron's and the rest of the media. This could be the BIG ONE
Just like '29.
4.Those that have sold all run to the safety of US debt. Sell Wallstreet
and buy bonds.
5. Japan wants to sell it's bonds that we gave a "money back guarenty" on when we convinced them to buy our debt a few years ago. ( ever think of the
profit on 150-200 billion ) With interest rates down ,the price on those
bonds, notes etc should be 10% to 15% ( ? ) higher. Not the type of profit
one likes to have disappear. Besides that, they need/want their money back.
6. So... What if.. the PPT wuold SELL the SnP ..get everybody to run to the bond market and buy what Japan is going to sell. The bond market
would not lose it's strength ( spelled strong $ )

Sounds pretty wild... huh ?. Could be pretty wild if true..REAL WILD


Many thanks to those making this site possible and to those URLS.. saves me hours searching for the "news"

money back

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:29 - ID#410194)
@The Hatt
They have known for quite a while that they will need to lower rates but they were also aware that the Yen would take a beating by doing it so they have effectively and successfully talked the Yen up so that the reaction would come from higher levels.

It happened according to their plans and they will continue to make sure that the Yen will continue to recover after this initial knee-jerk reaction.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:29 - ID#30126)
The Hatt
IMHO, it's Standard Operating Procedure. Kill the speculators! :- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:31 - ID#290172)
Donald--re:OOPS! Gold gods also angered by Donald

Actually, that is a rumble of APPROVAL! They are angry when the volcano erupts in YOUR neck of the woods. {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:33 - ID#93241)
I think it's called hari-kari. I wonder if they're trying to take the dollar down or force the Fed to bail them out like we've seen in the past few months.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:37 - ID#30126)
Bonior giving a B.S. talk about 'forgiving the president for the hurt he has caused...' He doesn't sound to upbeat... IMO, deep water ( substitute your own word for water ) ahead.... Oh my! Just get rid of this guy!!!!

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:38 - ID#384350)
The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.

Thanks for posting my excellent predictions/commentary last night, however you forgot my Saturday morning post. Maybe you didn't see it.

Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 11:27
Gianni Dioro ( Dow ) ID#384350:
appears to be in an ABC correction. I anticipate rallying early next week as the Wave C gets under way trying to reach 8000, from where we could likely see the Dow crash. Either way, a clear break below Sep 1 low ( roughly 7400 ) should spell doom.

Also Joe Public isn't going to panic. He is in it for the long haul. He will watch this market collapse all the way down, and when it's his turn to sell because his assets are shrinking faster than his debt he will be forced to sell at whatever price the market offers. This is a game of musical chairs. There is no way for the masses to exit the market, they are locked in at the top.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:41 - ID#290172)
Clarification--the 09:25 post:
The quotes are first six months of 1997. But Aug 97 - Aug 98 looks
just as 'neat and tidy'... {:- )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:54 - ID#327123)
I'm not conviced that the rally is over. I don't believe enough short squeezing took place yesterday to pull out the markets safety net. We should see some more to the upside before this thing turns around in another day or so. Gold is doing as expected. Keep your powder dry because there is going to be some fine shooting a few weeks down the road. May you all invest wisely.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:58 - ID#254321)
I misquoted you!
Bill Buckler: Sorry! In my dialogue with Nick@C, I stated that you were not bullish on gold equities. While that is undoubtedly true, what I should have said was that you were not yet bullish on gold bullion. Likewise, RJ is not yet bullish on gold bullion, either. I'm pretty sure the Oldman was long on gold equities, but it is clear he will bail out within a week or so if gold bullion does not confirm the gold equities rally. Intense gold equity rallies have a tendency to falter quickly during deflationary times such as these, implied pending US interest rate drops or no.

Again, I would like to express my appreciation for your highly reasoned posts on gold bullion. It is posters like you that are essential for balance on Kitco, because it is so easy for Goldbugs to get wrapped up in their favorite topic at the first bullish twitch, only to get creamed a few days later. I should know. Not all my lessons were from erudite posters such as yourself -- I had to get much of my experience from the markets.

This mornings action on gold bullion clearly shows that caution with gold investments is still necessary. AG etal still have alot of gold bullion to play with, if they think the World's financial system is threatened. We must be patient, and wait for this period to end.

I think gold will not rise unless:

1 ) the US dollar is significantly devalued, or

2 ) the US markets drop alot more, or

3 ) the turmoil in Russia panics European investors, or

4 ) there is serious talk about impeachment of WJC.

If there is another financial crisis in Europe like the one in 1992-1993, gold and the US dollar will go up together. Personally, I do not wish for any events that would lead to a further rise in the value of the US dollar, because of that would mean to financial systems all over the world.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 09:58 - ID#254321)
I misquoted you!
Bill Buckler: Sorry! In my dialogue with Nick@C, I stated that you were not bullish on gold equities. While that is undoubtedly true, what I should have said was that you were not yet bullish on gold bullion. Likewise, RJ is not yet bullish on gold bullion, either. I'm pretty sure the Oldman was long on gold equities, but it is clear he will bail out within a week or so if gold bullion does not confirm the gold equities rally. Intense gold equity rallies have a tendency to falter quickly during deflationary times such as these, implied pending US interest rate drops or no.

Again, I would like to express my appreciation for your highly reasoned posts on gold bullion. It is posters like you that are essential for balance on Kitco, because it is so easy for Goldbugs to get wrapped up in their favorite topic at the first bullish twitch, only to get creamed a few days later. I should know. Not all my lessons were from erudite posters such as yourself -- I had to get much of my experience from the markets.

This mornings action on gold bullion clearly shows that caution with gold investments is still necessary. AG etal still have alot of gold bullion to play with, if they think the World's financial system is threatened. We must be patient, and wait for this period to end.

I think gold will not rise unless:

1 ) the US dollar is significantly devalued, or

2 ) the US markets drop alot more, or

3 ) the turmoil in Russia panics European investors, or

4 ) there is serious talk about impeachment of WJC.

If there is another financial crisis in Europe like the one in 1992-1993, gold and the US dollar will go up together. Personally, I do not wish for any events that would lead to a further rise in the value of the US dollar, because of that would mean to financial systems all over the world.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:03 - ID#287114)
Thank you for your very informative post on the British Pound, Irish Punt etc. I can understand the tradition but somewhere in time, King Henry VIII, St. Patrick and King Robert Bruce will have to modernize for the global economy.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:06 - ID#269409)
@ Tyoung, @Fwipe, @P, all
I don't often put up reposts, but in this case it's appropriate. Mr. Tom, you've always been a stand up guy. But I think you might have mis-interpreted the "Jihad" comments of yesterday.

Actually, all this nonsense has been perpetrated by one and ONLY one individual, who is incapable of carrying on reasonable discourse with his betters. ( In spite of what his lap dog disciple PH may tell you ) . Following is a post I made many months ago, in response to one of *Fwipe's early posts in which his true character emerges.

You'll note particularly, *Fwipes phrase that states...., and I quote exactly...... "...when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor. "

Tell me Tom, are these the words of a sane and rational being who can discuss markets with his superiors? ( Superiors in this case defined as anything that draws oxygen into lungs ) . Anyway, in the interest of assuring *Fwipes words continue to be imortalized for his follwoers like PH, here ya go, the repost;

Following are the fair, balanced, gentlemanly, open minded, and objective comments of the omnipotent Gold analysts, F* Word. ( I say F* word, because so many of his posts were signed F* the Unpronounceable ...thus I want to give him the reverence he so desires when he takes on the self appointed mantle of having an unpronounceable name...something only God had previously laid claim to )

Comments in parenthesis, are, unfortunately, the work of my own hand...LGB. All other comments are those of the F* word fellow

Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 00:03
farfel ( it a glee club for gold? ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

A certain poster ( Hmmmm, I thought this guy F* word claims he always calls other posters by their Kitco name out of respect? ) recently disparaged this forum as evolving into nothing more than a glee club for gold. The central is imperative to hear the opposing point of view, i.e., the derogatory perspective of gold's
value, in order to achieve balance and proper perspective. ( Hmmm, I disagree with the characterization here, the FACTUAL perspective would be a lot more accurate. The actual history of performance, current prospects for future performance. As a GoldBug, AND a believer in the achievements of the age, I cant imagine having an Anti Gold view any more than an Anti US economy view )

Personally, I do not believe that Kitco's strong bias in favor of gold ( or silver ) is a a bad thing. ( Any strong bias will prevent good judgment, not only in matters Gold investment related, but in ALL areas of life ) .....Why? Because today, we live in a world in which gold is disparaged routinely in virtually all mainstream media...or it is
ignored completely. ( I see, if phony propagandizing and bias exists in the mainstream media, then the proper response is to eliminate truth, objectivity, and honest evaluation in other forums... )

What is so wrong about the tendentious nature of this forum then? Why is it perfectly acceptable for a media outlet such as CNBC to blast its frequent, total, chauvinistic support of the supremacy of equities and bonds and the irrelevance of gold in a modern economy ...yet somehow various Kitcoites feel it is imperative for this forum to present a fair balance between goldbugs and their pro-equities/anti-gold poster antagonists...and the
very same Kitcoites become oh-so indignant if they perceive the argumentation is balancing too far in favor of gold?? ( Obviously this guy doesnt read major peer stock forums such as the SI thread, where bearish, objective, and balanced sentiments abound in huge measure )

What is wrong with having another strong mouthpiece for gold such as the Kitco Forum in this "paper-pyramid-economy-is-OK-by-me" world? God only knows the World Gold Council is doing a miserable job of propagandizing ( Glad the F* fellow realizes EXACTLY what it is hes trying to push here...propagandizing ) gold's merits. So, what crime exists in allowing a preponderance of goldbug intellectuals
to present their views over a non-mainstream internet site such as this and offer some token resistance to the mountain of anti-gold nonsense out there? ( Perhaps the crime that exists in such a that some of us still have a love for truth, honesty, facts, and reality in making a judgment as to both sides of any it economic, Gold related, political, spiritual, socio-economic......I know, were stupid ideologues and all for holding this view...yet it persists...... )

Balance...schmalance. ( F* word... this should be your mantra for all time )

I welcome anti-gold exponents to post on this forum...I beg them to do so. ( Uh huh ) However, be warned...there are those here ( myself included ) who will dispute your anti-gold logic until it crumbles into the nonsensical gibberish it really is. ( Funny that those who look at both the up AND down side of Gold are called anti....where have we seen this kind of thinking before? )

If that should happen and you run away, "crying to mama," then do not blame us!! Furthermore, let no other Kitcoites scold those of us who "take no prisoners" in such argumentation either. The pro-gold/anti-gold schism is not a mere is nothing less than a cultural war. Despite the ostensible appearance of pandemic ( You sure you know what this means? ) prosperity, this country is at war with itself. Anyone who would deny this is viewing the world through blinders. ( This guy have a messianic leader complex or what? Gold is beautiful and has some noble metallurgical properties, and a rich history of societal valuation....but its not exactly the spiritual be all and end all of the Universe... )

There are many in this world and on this forum who have built their houses upon foundations of gold and silver...who clothe their families out of the fabrics of gold and silver...who feed their families from plates of gold and ( not in the last 2 decades they havent..... )

...when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor. ( Now we finally see the true nature of the gentlemanly F* person ...and how open and objective a guy he is when it comes to Gold analysis....yes we can assess the worth of all his words in this very telling context )


( Final LGB the words Orwell, fascist, fanatic, free speech, objectivity, balance, propaganda ,or frightening have any meaning in this mans vast vocabulary? )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:12 - ID#269409)
@ Jujube...Did I hear Al Gore's name mentioned??
Now *Fspot has REALLY erred if he's invoking the spectre of Al Gore. It's HE who ought to be worried.

Does he not know that Al Gore is the world's environmentelist champion against global warming? Does not the *Fwipe realize that his wordy posts contribute more noxious "Greenhouse gas" emissions to the upper atmosphere, then the military industrial complex of all civilized nations?

If Al Gore catches "Wind" of this *Fwipe feller, *Fwipe will be locked away for life!!


(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:16 - ID#286249)
On the other hand, when the CB dam breaks...
Gold: Supply, Demand, Price, and Research
Presented at: The Australian Gold Conference 1996
Kalgoorlie, West Australia
March 1996
Presented by:
Jeffrey M. Christian
Managing Director, CPM

Gold also has a multiplier. For the Australian dollar, as with the U.S. dollar, I believe the multiplier is around 3 or 4. For gold, our estimate is that the multiplier is around 9 at present. That is, an ounce of gold entering the bullion market, from mine output, scrap recovery, central bank sales, or wherever, will be involved in 9 transactions before it exits the bullion market, either being used in a fabricated product or being dumped into an investor's inventories somewhere. Gold loans, forward sales, and other paper transactions increase the turn-over, the multiplier, of gold in the market. THEY DO NOT INCREASE THE ACTUAL SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL METAL.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:22 - ID#431200)
Japan's 19 major banks, as a sector, had more liabilities than assets as of Aug. 28, according to Yu
Yukiko Ohara, a banking analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter estimated the net capital of the largest 19 banks would be a negative $7.6 billion if banks were required to write off significant portions of their bad loans.

Japanese Bank Crisis Said to Be Worsening Official Warns of Danger of Deflation By Sandra SugawaraWashington Post Foreign Service

Wednesday, September 9, 1998; Page C10

TOKYO, Sept. 8Japanese bank experts warned today that the nation's financial crisis is deepening, despite government promises to revive the economy and international pleas for bolder action.

Separately, a Japanese economic official warned that the nation is in danger of a deflationary spiral -- a situation, like that during the Great Depression, in which falling demand causes prices to drop so much that businesses cut back production and workers lose their jobs, pushing demand and prices down further.

These dire warnings come just days after Clinton administration officials again urged the Japanese government to act more aggressively to stimulate the world's second-largest economy, to help stabilize world financial markets.

"The banking system is quickly worsening," said Naoko Nemoto, a Tokyo-based banking analyst with the rating agency Standard & Poor's Corp.

Japanese banks are burdened with hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of loans that are not being repaid, and thus they are unable to make new loans, stifling economic activity. As the economy weakens, more companies have trouble repaying their loans, making matters worse.

"Bad loans are increasing because of the domestic economy," said Yushiro Ikuyo, banking analyst with Commerz Securities.

Taichi Sakaiya, head of Japan's Economic Planning Agency, today highlighted the serious deterioration of Japan's economy. According to Reuters, he said that although Japan's economy is not in a deflationary spiral, it is "at the entrance of one."

Sakaiya said Japan must be vigilant "so that we will not be sucked into a deflationary spiral."

"We must not make a mistake," he said. "We are in a dangerous situation."

Sakaiya said he expected the economy to revive once the government's spending and tax cut plans are enacted. But financial experts fear that the banking system could collapse by then, unless the government forces the disclosure and disposal of troubled loans, injects hundreds of billions of dollars in public funds into banks that are weak but viable, and closes insolvent banks.

Analysts said continuing efforts by the governing Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) to prop up weak banks, the "soft landing" approach, may help avoid panic but will also prolong the problem. That's because it will not result in a banking system that can generate its own profits, meaning more bailouts probably would be needed in the future.

Japan's 19 major banks, as a sector, had more liabilities than assets as of Aug. 28, according to Yukiko Ohara, a banking analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. In the latest edition of Economist, a leading Japanese weekly business magazine, she estimated the net capital of the largest 19 banks would be a negative $7.6 billion if banks were required to write off significant portions of their bad loans.

"The amount of bad loans has expanded like a snowball sliding down a slope," said Seiroku Kajiyama, a veteran LDP politician and banking reform advocate who ran unsuccessfully against Keizo Obuchi this summer for the post of prime minister.

In an article for the October edition of the influential Bungei Shunju magazine, Kajiyama wrote that the $229 billion approved by the government last winter was sufficient then to deal with the banking problem. "But since the government has not thoroughly dealt with the bad-loan problem, Japan is now at a critical stage," where even $382 billion might not be enough," he said, according to Reuters.

Kajiyama criticized the LDP for preparing to inject possibly billions of dollars into the financially ailing Long Term Credit Bank of Japan without fully explaining to the public whether this will be sufficient to solve its bad-debt problems.

The LDP's soft-landing approach has led it to try to force Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. to take over Long Term Credit Bank. Sumitomo Trust so far has balked at the plan, because the government wants it to continue to lend to many of the weaker bank's shaky customers. The LDP hopes to persuade Sumitomo Trust by pouring massive amounts of public funds into Long Term Credit Bank.

The opposition parties have blocked this plan until now, saying they wouldn't agree to a bailout until the government disclosed Long Term Credit Bank's bad loans levels, something the government has refused to do -- prompting speculation that the bank is insolvent.

The opposition has said the banking industry must be consolidated and a few of the weakest banks should be allowed to fail. But the Kyodo news service reported this evening that the opposition parties may be backing down on their disclosure demands.

One concern for policymakers is that bank failures can wipe out a hefty portion of the assets of other corporations. That's because under Japan's traditional business structure, Japanese corporations were expected to buy the stocks of their main banks. About 25 percent of all Japanese bank shares are held by non-financial corporations in Japan, according to Craig Chudler, a Tokyo-based strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.

 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:27 - ID#269409)
@ PH
If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery than I suppose I should be flattered. Hmmm, yet I don't feel so for SOME reason.

Your analogies to Hitler and such are a sorry attempt to imitate the style with which I critisize this *Fwipe creature. After all, I don't consider him "Subhuman"...more like "Pre-evolutionary"... the sulpherous *F belch of an early volcano perhaps.

Additionally, I would remind you that if you read the repost I just put up, it once again demonstrates that it is the *Fwipe who brought all this upon himself with his unprovoked invective, stated in terms of offensive that NO ONE, including myself, would EVER consider using...

I know you're easily confused PH, but let's get it straight...Your hero *Fwipe/Clinto brought all this on themselves through their OWN behaviour. Thoose of us who rightly point it out, are merely the messengers, not the perps.

Finally, I find your callous disregard of those who suffered under Hitler and the Holocaust, to be extremely offensive. Personally, I would never besmirch their memory of the innocents who suffered under that regime, by invoking it in this kind of argument, over such a pathetic piece of excrement as *Fwipe.

Get a life. This isn't your battle, your attempts to make it such are a wasted exercise.

Post your own market "expertise" ( I'm still looking ) and stop groveling at the foot of this dung heap, *Fsteam.

Must you have Guru's to adore, or is it possible that some day you may have an original thought? I have nothing else to say to you..... at least you don't make pretense to know anything about markets, Gold, equities, or any other subject...and this is know your limitations.

Maybe if you go read the words of some of the greats on K1, instead of serving as lap dog to your totally discredited hero's, you may have an original thought someday....

Have a nice day


(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:27 - ID#408147)
Oh goodie...another test of gold lows coming up!
We're slowly running out of buying opportunities for the PMs. I'm heading to my bullion dealer today...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:34 - ID#240248)
Bad Debt In Japan
Japans bad debt approaches 1.5 trillion dollars. Making this even worse
is the ( Japanese ) public view of the bad debt as a problem that comes from the banks making loans to the yakuza ( Japanese gangsters ) . This makes any government bailout of the bank bad debt problem very unpopular with the public and dangerous from a political point of view. Add to this a dramatically declining population of earning and spending citizens and the stage is set for a major collapse. I thought they would have gone under rather dramatically by now but the government of Japan has held off the inevitable for a while longer. Just like the US PPT, they will be unable to hold this off forever.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:36 - ID#329186)
Colombo,Skinny, UK currency
I cannot comment on Ireland however Scottish money is not legal tender but accepted ~ odd really

strat ( pog dropping ) are you from the UK ?


(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:36 - ID#187109)
Eldo - I was VERY tempted to short Mr en too.....but as I said, it scares me sometimes. Oh well, 20/20 hindsight. Shoulda coulda woulda. been there... Alas....I am still making money using common sense and following charts............ ( $ )

Dave in CO & HattManDoo - Act like adults here. Don't cry on a public forum, It's bad form. I call it like I see it. If it in ANY way resembles anything else you see ALL day long ( as on CNBC ) I have a suggestion that involves a little effort on your part. TURN IT OFF OR USE SCROLL! You do not want to get involved in a pissing match w/ me. I will not do it. I will not scroll past your WONDERFUL BIASED approach to the markets either. Constant calls for stox crash and gold to skyrocket can get very boring if you stand on my side of the block....think about it. I happen to like the nimble approach and have learned to stand on both sides of the fence.... ( that way I can get burned TWICE ;- ) ) . That is all.

HaTT - moron?!??!? C'mon dude. You do not know me AT ALL. Kindly refrain from name calling. Once again......bad form. And it shows intelligence levels. If you name call one more time I will be forced to leave this forum FOREVER!! ............sure.

oh yeah, Dave in CO - tsk tsk. When you read someones posts and even care to comment on the content try a little harder to be accurate....once again bad form and lack of intelligence rears it's ugly head........ I do not believe I said I am an [ETERNAL] bull. I believe I said:

Date: Tue Sep 08 1998 11:09
EB ( thanks Hatt ) ID#187109:
My portfolio would bore even you. I am looooong term w/ my IRA's, keough's, 401k's, etc. I 'shoot' for ONLY
thirteen percent over the long haul. I have already done the math loooooooong ago and I know what I need and I
have set a game plan loooooooooooong ago. My game plan will not change and you should NOT change your
game plan either. But.......DO know that there are winners and losers...........I will do EVERYTHING I can to be
on the winning team. And that does not mean I must sell my just means I need to pay attention and use
sound strategies that I have been taught loooooooong ago by my father and grandfather and great grandfather, etc.

PM stocks, imo, are not long term growth. They are VERY speculative plays. I think JD and Nick@C and even
GSC would tell you that.

My portfolio does not consist of ANY gold stox currently......NONE. But that doesn't mean they won't ( they will
) . This is why I am here. Not to read all the rantings of cheerleaders but to read sound, thought out, reasoned
posts from people who, imo, have made good market moves in the past and will be there in the future to make
MORE good market moves. That is all Hatt............. ( wink )
And as far as what my family members have said to me. I believe that I said ( for you to reread ) that I was taught sound strategies. These words can be twisted and turned to mean ANYTHING you want them to ( as you have done ) , from shopping at the grocery store to meeting girls. People read and hear what they want to.........oh well, I can't hold your hand through your difficult life journey. Use sound strategies.....and common sense.

Gianni Dioro - Good on ya mate. AGULP. I did read that post. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock. You may be right...but you may be wrong. I am not sure that this forum needs constant 'crash is gonna happen' updates though. We ALL see what is going on here. This forum is a heartbeat AWAY from the real action. I read everyone hear, some more quickly than others......some get printed and hung on the wall.....some get archived to bring up humble so to spaek. Humble me ANYTIME.

All - isn't it true that the DOW has a long term track record of ONLY 11% per annum? If this is to remain true some of the market gains MUST be given back. Isn't this what we are all talking about? Let us use level heads and not get too exited about any one thing. This is a sure fire way to lose your hard earned duckets. Emotions are a common enemy of the investor AND the speculator. Lay back....take a puff.....inhale if you prefer......and stay the course.......or adapt........right or wrong. Just don't call me a moron....... I don't like it and I don't deserve it and I may get pissy. That is all.

Go gold............someday. And Allen ( USA ) is correct.....I will be there...........uh huh. AGULP to ya ALLEN!

RJ - AGULP to you too for your strategies. Namast... ( wink ) . w/w

sorry to many bugs for this long post.....had to clarify some things. Scroll me if you need to.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:43 - ID#402148)
The word is IMPEACHMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
..are tthey really gonna do it??????????


(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:45 - ID#373284)
Y2K not a problem huh...think way or another there will be massive problems...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:46 - ID#222107)
More Bail-Outs by the USA
It looks like we'll forgiving Russia's debts this time. Just as we have with Mexico a while back.

Make certain you understand one critical point: We are NOT helping out these nations. We are helping the banks and financial institutions that have invested in these countries.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 10:59 - ID#174239)
Clinton Impeachment Prediction
For the rest of his term the republican controlled Congress will drag out the impeachment question without resolving it one way or another. If they impeach Clinton today, then Gore will just have a nice running start to the next election. As things stand now, the democrats are torn between loyalty to thier party leader and seperating themselves from the scandal. This gives the republicans more power now and better odds in the next two elections.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:00 - ID#374348)
OK EB/ I am sorry! Allow me to try again!
I believe that what we are experiencing today in this new world economy is history setting and we cannot discount anyones opinion that is supported by facts! This includes your personal ideas on where and how to make money. What prompted my childish remarks last night was your badgering comments towards other posters who simply welcome the opportunity to express their thoughts. Perhaps you think they are funny while others find them cutting, lets hope we can both gain something from this exchange of ideas!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:07 - ID#187109)

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:10 - ID#254321)
Japan -- more disclosures evident, even derivatives
D.A.: I think there is alot of merit to your comments about Japan yesterday. Now the Japanese are rolling up their sleeves and are at least publically identifying the problem. But -- can they control the Yakuza?

Whether the actually accomplish anything is another matter, but you cannot resolve an issue that you do not acknowledge. What is happening is a good sign, and may be an indication that Japan is bottoming.

What is really interesting is that the Japanese are now reporting derivatives positions on Japanese banks. When do you recall American banks acknowledging this, except after the loss is so big that it cannot be hidden? Even AG ( who is normally quite rational and conservative ) is reluctant to disclose American bank derivative positions. This is probably because he does not want the confidentiality of CB maneuvering with gold derivatives to see the light of day.

I think the new Japanese honesty in reporting financial affairs will be a big plus for them in the years to come. We should learn from this before we find ourselves like ostriches with our heads in the sand a few years from now.

If AG is really smart, he is at least working with the BIS to require that all banks under US control report derivatives positions, even if they are not for public consumption. I hope he knows that this kind of information should be public knowledge. If it is not, we will all regret it later when the dirty laundry comes to light. More Barings and Sumitomo surprises to come, I think.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:11 - ID#269409)
@Is Warren Buffet also a bad influence?
*Fwipe sayz...." ( @REALISTIC...I told you to refer all SILVER questions to LGBUGAL... ) ID#17077:...he's the one who influenced me into believing silver was going through the roof this summer. He's Kitco's resident silverbug. I guess you might say I fell under "bad influences."

LGB sayz.....

Hmmm, I never said silver was going through the roof in the summer. As Realistic has so rightly pointed out, I am a LONG term investor, based on perceived value and fundamentals....purportedly the SAME reasons that Warren Buffet invested in the stuff long after I had made these silver in undervalued statements on K1.

Time will tell who's right...I like 1999 as the year silver begins it's true take-off to the $8.00 to $10.00 region, and 2000 as the year it breaks well above the $14.00 level at some point...all this somewhat dependant on a semi recovery in Asian markets and India demand.

Anyway, if "Bad influence" means I share the same traits as WB, a long term investment strategist so far beyond my leafue that is makes me dizzy...well than I'll accept that company any day.

Hmmmm..... now that I think of it though *Fspot.... have you checked back 12 months lately to see where Silver was a year ago vs. today? And then compared that with Gold a year ago and today? I bought the vast majority of my bullion holding last $4.30 average...announced it here at the time...and the reasons why.....

i DO believe it's in the profits.... something we can't say for Gold ( or most stocks for that matter... )

Yep.... I'm a Baaaaaaaaad investment influence all right. If you like poverty.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:11 - ID#286230)
They are still unable to find any facts to support your ABX hedging story or even understand it over on SI American Barrick. Why not go over there and help them out?

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:20 - ID#374348)
Selby/ Am doing more DD as we speak!
Would suggest that my findings will support the idea or rumour if you may that it would make much sense for them to take the road of unwinding their hedge program. My source simply made note of the fact that they are considering a proposal... Find it interesting that ABX have not denied the company is considering this move! Will post my findings later...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:21 - ID#269409)
@ EB
Excellent response to the posts of last evening

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:22 - ID#287279)
What a quote!!!!!!
This is a quote from a Sunday September 6, 1998, New York Times News Service article, entitled "U.S., Japan divided on seriousness of economic crisis."

"A few months ago people were talking about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel," said Jeffrey Garten, the dean of the Yale School of Management, a former top official in the Commerce Department. "Now the only hope is keeping the world economy from total deterioration. And you get a sense that this is all truly left to Adam Smith's invisible hand- it's beyond any county's ability, any institution, to control."

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:26 - ID#31876)
Mr. Wanniski, I Take My Hat Off to You!!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:31 - ID#254321)
We are resolving our differences -- the way it should be.
All: Isn't it great that Kitco is now focusing on intelligent, mature discourse, rather than the disruptive episodes on K2, or those of our ( seemingly ) distant past?

We should all thank Bart Kitner as the benevolent ( and generous ) owner of our virtual space. He makes all of this possible. Thanks, again, Bart Kitner.

Bart -- please do not hesitate to make any suggestions as to how we can make it even better! I guess my biggest concern is our relative inability to attract a more international population of regulars. But at least we are able to keep the interest of regulars like Jin, who are a real asset to this site. And, we do have ( in addition to native Canadians ) , Australians, New Zealanders, Dutch, South Africans, Arabs ( occasionally ) , French ( occasionally ) and those rowdy Americans.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:35 - ID#269409)
@ Gold today
ASB...You gotta hand it to our favorite shiny noble metal... it sure isn't very volatile in these perilous times.

While I am NEVER personally an advocate for derivitaves as a basic investment strategy beyond hedging and such....those who's tastes run in that direction, and believe a big "Up" move in Gold is coming....should like the drop in options premiums that the lack of volatility is causing.

See, manipulation to a flat market ain't ALL bad!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:42 - ID#288232)

LOOK! up in the's a, it's a plane....
no, it's the ssm....NO, it's THE BLADE......

the blade--pendulum--having reached its' penultimate position...
now retraces its' original track....the track that the peopleo
are using....standing on the track of the pendulum of, my, my....

the track of life is hazardous offer ones head to the
blade....that is a shade of LUNAcy borne from the beams of the moon...

we all have a common is to evade the blade....that is why
we are here---most---others have a message about the blade, yet they
know not of the sharp was intuitive from the get-go...they
know.....having come from the herd of peopleo...


(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:45 - ID#34191)
Y2K and airplanes
A noted talk show host glibbly states that Y2K will not cause airplanes to fall from the skies, but can it? FAA failure asside, what about imbedded chips in the planes? Fl 111 has no record below 10,000 feet apparently because of a failure of the electrical system. A dark night with no instruments could bring down ANY plane. Aren't airport landing strip lights powered by electricity? Do they have back up generators at airports?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:47 - ID#254321)
Fighting Intensifies in Kosovo
All: The pot is coming to a boil.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:48 - ID#288232)

look carefully grasshopper.....what do you see one, who
would fly instead of hop?


(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:48 - ID#269409)
I second your motion that Bart deserves thanks, and this forum is an improved place now that all are held to the same standards. Even for a contentious sort like myself, it's not difficult to behave civilly here on K1, if it is understood that the same expectations apply to all, regardless of market philosophy.

I was very distressed to see the unprovoked attacks on EB and RJ last evening, and very impressed with the way those two high class gentleman handled those attacks....resulting in peace and harmony once again! I intend to learn from their excellent example.

( Note to EB, I'm sure most here would definitely place you in the "top ten" of enjoyable reads....., I certainly do )

My suggestion is that if anyone wants to "get personal" and "duke it out", with no holds barred, they go over to K2 and do it there.

Apologies if my suggestion smacks of hypocrisy ( as I freely admit to the ocassional burst of bad behaviour here in the past ) .... but indeed, when allowed to freely speak our market views.... even when they don't cheerlead a specific position...I think even the more contentious among us can behave like gentlemen.

Go Gold......Go Silver.....soar like a Mark McGuire home run!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 11:55 - ID#227238)
Geeez. This place is beginning to take on the scent of a candlelight prayer vigil. What's next? Form up a circle and hug the person on our right? ..... {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:07 - ID#269409)
@ Earl
I'm close to Haight Ashbury...we should all meet there and have a flower child love how are we going to get some GoldBug WOMEN involved???? ( Ok,Ok, some of us will bring our wives.....don't wanna get in too much trouble! We're not Bill Cinton's here now after all....;- ) .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:08 - ID#269409)
CDN's take on Gold $20 piece demand
A bit dated, this CDN Quarterly supplement, publishe din June, still applies...right Robnoel?


by Richard N. Nachbar

Since we last discussed Double Eagle premiums in these columns in 19961, much has happened to this popular,
high-volume sector of numismatics. First, Gold bullion prices collapsed over $100 per ounce ( Graph 1 ) . Then $20
Saint-Gaudens and $20 Liberties joined in a similar, steep price decline. But then, in September 1997, with Gold
bullion still months ahead of its final January 1998 low, the prices for "Saints" and "Libs" reversed sharply to the upside,
parting company with bullion and causing their collector premiums over their Gold value to double in just a few

In hindsight, reasons for the precipitous Gold decline are now fairly well known. Most have read extensive media
coverage of large central bank sales and equally large forward ( advance ) sales of Gold mining companies'
anticipated future production. Less well known has been the central bank leasing of even larger quantities of physical
Gold, enabling several hedge funds to execute massive speculative short selling programs with the borrowed bullion.
Combining these factors, as many as 10 years of annual world mine production glutted bullion markets during 1996
and 1997. If not for simultaneous record demand for the yellow metal - primarily from Asia - prices might easily have
fallen to $250 per ounce or even lower.

Graph 2 illustrates the CDN Bid price for MS60 Saints. Note the bottom put in at $400 per coin during September 1997
more than 3 months before bullion bottomed at $278 in January 1998 ( Graph 1 ) . The Bid price then rallied to $460 per
coin, where we find it today ( June 5,1998 ) as this article is being completed. This sharp price increase in MS60 Saints -
in the face of a continuing decline in the underlying Gold price - caused their premium percentage over melt to explode
to a decade high 58% today, as Graph 3 clearly shows.

The first logical question becomes "What might have caused these sharp price and premium increases?" and then
"How does this compare historically over a greater period of time?" First, either the available supply of Saints was
reduced from normal flows, or the demand for Saints greatly increased, or a combination of the two factors were at
work. Since average U.S. collector and investor demand is normally met by a steady flow of several thousand pieces
per month being imported from European bank vaults, a check with the major U.S. importers reveals a somewhat
reduced supply in recent months, according to an informal poll just undertaken.

More revealing is the fact that this supply reduction seems to extend also to the $20 Liberties, $10 Liberties and $5
Liberties. Premiums over melt for those coins are also now at highs for the decade.

On an historical basis, the current higher premiums can be viewed as a return to average levels seen over the past
25 years ( Graph 4 ) . Graphs for MS60 $20 Lib premiums, as well as for AU50 $20 Saint and AU50 $20 Lib premiums,
are quite similar - they seem to have recently returned to the average or mean of the past 25 years. This would
appear to denote a very comfortable balance presently between supply and demand for these big, old and collectible
U.S. Gold coins.

However, something further still appears to be supporting these recently higher levels. Graph 5 expresses this
"something else" in a very dramatic way. Appearing for the first time in the CDN Monthly Supplement, the 1997-1998
Bluesheet Advance - Decline Line shows a major trend change taking place in reported Bid prices for all the
10,074 price listings in that publication. The minus signs have nearly disappeared and now the plus signs exist weekly
by the hundreds. This technical market breadth indicator is now stronger than at any time since 1989.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:11 - ID#119358)
@777.O y ebO y lgbO...........
777.O....i just knew there was somethin' I liked 'bout you.....cable tool? ol' oiley!!!! cooooooool. salud! ten, oh yeah.........fer sure dudeO. what lines did gran-pappy recommend for the chickies? huh? "like to take my surrey for a little spin, babe?"

lgbO.....are you okay? ;^ ) ~

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:12 - ID#327123)
@ COWGIRL; your 11:45 post
Yes, every major airport has backup generators to supply critical services. Every FAA facility also has the same redundancy built in.

I've been retired from the FAA for almost 10 years but I'm pretty sure that the terminal computer systems for approach control facilities are not Y2K compliant. I could be wrong on that because I'm really out of touch. I like to spend my time on the markets.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:15 - ID#254321)
Kitco 1
LGB: I missed the fracas last night. EB and RJ are two of our regular posters with the most market insight.

Long hours for me these summer days. Many chores on an isolated 'bargain' vacation property that is beautiful, but not quite a bargain. Water and electricity and roof now work. No phone. Now -- I would be alot happier if that 17' Bayliner ( 1/10 new cost ) did not leak. Have to keep it on the trailer, or keep running it. Was a bit difficult getting the trailer into the lake. Too steep for vehicle to do this. Haven't got around to putting in one of those float activated bilge pumps, and still in idea phase for electric winch to pull it and trailer out of water. Can't afford a new floating dock, so must handle 10 foot rises and falls of water level with the trailer. No water skiing this summer for the kids, though until boat is easier to use. Lost 10 pounds and am a lot more fit, though. Good distraction, and enough space for future retirement.

Despite what you might think, I do appreciate your comments, as they do give sorely needed perspective. Belief in the intrinsic value of gold is not enough if you wish in invest -- you need to be equally facile in knowing when to buy and sell. Best not to learn all of your lessons the hard way in the markets.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:15 - ID#212197)
@Cowgirl (Y2K and airplanes)
There are two principally different failure possibilities of embedded chips which I know of:
1 ) The embedded chip fails because it's system clock has just two digits for the year and it's code depends on actual date/time. This is the classical Y2K failure, which would happen at the change of the millennium, at midnight.
2 ) The embedded chip doesn't depend on the actual date/time, but depends on the system clock for reasons of measuring time differences and has also just the two digits reserved for the year. In these cases the kick-off date/time can be set randomly. Some of these system clocks are kicked off with a year set to 1980 or 1984. Depending of the production year, these chips can fail any time after the Year2000 in at a non-predictable point of time. Rick Cowles writes about this insidious type of embedded chip failure in his book: "Electric Utilities and Y2K".
That's where I learned about it.

My advice: Don't even think of using an air plane during the first three months of Year2000, no matter how good things turn out to be.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:17 - ID#238422)
Japan's interest rates cut
Brothers, let's think long and hard on this one...
May be those guys in the Country of the Rising Sun
are just about ready to start dumping the U.S. bonds....
in sizeable quantities... ( 1 ) or they just expect U.S.
dollar to tank real bad... ( 2 ) which may also happen
if #1 takes place...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:23 - ID#317193)
LGB...point taken...well taken.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:24 - ID#372262)
The fact that DEC. gold is able to claw its way back to $288 despite the huge runup in dollar/Yen, I construe as BULLISH AS HELL!!!!! The GOLD BULL IS HERE AND NOW!!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:25 - ID#433143)
hey at George Bush Intl Airport, all the runway lights are fitted with solar panels and a battery enclosed in a housing attached to the actual light, i suppose this is a backup to the backup... or just cost effective those lights are pretty bright if you ask me, cant really see those batterys supplying that kinda of amperage for long..

Dave in CO
(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:30 - ID#229141)
I know my lack of intelligence gets in the way, but tell me how I could have misinterpreted your statement:

"My portfolio would bore even you. I am looooong term w/ my IRA's, keough's, 401k's, etc. I 'shoot' for ONLY
thirteen percent over the long haul. I have already done the math loooooooong ago and I know what I need and I
have set a game plan loooooooooooong ago. My game plan will not change and you should NOT change your
game plan either."

Are you loooooooooooooooong-term in equities in your IRA's, etc., or not? The above reads very clearly to me, like a script from CNBC or Bob Brinker, but I have to fight this lifetime problem of lack of intelligence ( your words to me. ) Please explain.

Oops, away to CNBC! Just heard Sue Hererra say something about a Dip.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:36 - ID#404410)
Very noticeable that some that were the most verbose last week, haven't been heard from so far this week. Laying low, I guess. Not to worry! The first sign that gold moves up 20 cents, they'll be back with prophetic bullish comments.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:36 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...Japan...
maybe they wish to lose another war...doubt that they do. They will win or take the rest of the world with them.

Shipped...last Friday.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:36 - ID#410198) I type we have 200 plus MS 62/63/64 on back order

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:40 - ID#210235)
@The world today
Keeping up with changes in the world today is a daunting task, partly because reading the news is such a sad event. The British publication, Financial Times, BBC and ITN news ( on PBS daily in these parts ) offer a good overview. Wanted to point you to the BBC today. Please observe China story. We need to think long and hard about this country, and what it means that the US President has given them preferred treatment, allowing them access to sensitive technology. Does anyone doubt that they are the source of North Korea's new success?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:43 - ID#269409)
Thanks for your comments JTF. And lest those who missed earlier posts I've made think that I havn't been a victim of losses in the metals...

The very REASON I take the perspective I do, is that I lost a portion of my ( then very modest ) net worth, back in the late 70's on bad precious metals investment advice from my then Guru's...Howard Ruff & Granville. You know, the guy's who were perpetually bullish Gold, Bearish Equities, saying essentially all the same things we often see here.

However, being a young tadpole in my early 20's at the time, the losses I took in metals, taught me an extremely valuable lesson... and that was NEVER but NEVER believe in Guru's. NEVER allow emotion or ideology to bias important investment decisions in ways that could harm your net worth.

DO your own study. Be objective and honest as possible about the markets. Study every point of view, every facet.

This doesn't mean I don't have a bias... it's inescapable. But one of the reasons I hang out on THIS forum ( besdies the fact that I happen to like precious metals and Numismatic coin ) is that I get a good "counterpoint" here to all the "conventional" investment advice that we here parroted so often.

Take my word for time the DOW drops like a stone, if I have to hear ONE MORE talking head tell us how the small investor should just suit tight through all ups and downs and never worry about it, I think I'm going to retch! Much as stocks have performed with excellence, a VERY good case can be made for shifting assets to dollars ( or Gold... ) in times like these...

I try and read every viewpoint here, if it has any decent factual, historic, or logical basis to it.

I also greatly appreciate your comments here on Kitco, you are one of the steady, valuable, rocks of Gibraltor that holds the ambience of the place together.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:46 - ID#288252)
Not to spoil the Y2K gold party, but.........
to sell a golden eagle ( in USA ) , I go to the local coin store and they issue me a check in $$$. Then I go to their bank and cash it. Now if there is a large scale banking collapse, how do I convert the gold to $$$ in order to buy stuff, without taking a big loss.

I know all about the barter thing and how gold is the only true money and all that, but realistically, people ( in USA now ) deal in $$$, not gold.

Maybe for Y2k, you should stash a big wad of $20's, also.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:46 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' and a gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...proof is in the posting
and cycles win...check the mood swings/cycles and it is area of constant...Clintler and Camdesess are...have always and will always...BE DIRTBAGS...uh huh...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:50 - ID#373284)
ShortSeller, Namaste' make no mistake about it...Y2K will not be a time to cash in
on your gold holdings...if you and millions of others are lucky you might retain what you now have...without question you should be accumulating 1...5...10 and 20 dollar bills for use before...during and after Y2K may also wish to check if your broker will pay you in gold and or platinum if you hold shares of anything...junk bags of silver will serve you well also...FWIW...IMO...a gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:51 - ID#350179)
Details of Russia proposals for rescuing economy

(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:57 - ID#269409)
@ SHortseller
Very valid point shorrtseller and one that RJ has made veryu eloquently on these pages if you scroll back a few days.

Even in Russia it's dollars they are hiding under their matresses, not precious metal coins.

Personally, I don't think we'll EVER see the day where we'r emaking trades with merchants and service folks using little ( or big ) Gold and silver coins directly. It'll never happen.....

However, this doesn't mean that Y2K perceptions won't drive up the price of Gold & will. The bags o' junk silver coin are ALREADY starting to sell for a premium..when just months ago they were selling for a discount....

And Gold coin sales are up 100% this year... ( U.S. mint AE sales anyway... )

The $20 pieces are getting tougher and tougher to find, as both Robnoel and I have stated here many times...those premiums are rising.

Thus, perception alone may help drive the metals markets as we approach Y2K. COuple this with world tensions, shifting fundamentals, declining silver inventories, increasing investor fear, and any one of a dozen other major factors... you may have the makings of a new Bull in the metals for the next 3 or 4 years.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 09 1998 12:59 - ID#347447)
Ifind your comments very interesting, as I was extremely bullish about gold and silver in the early '70's BECAUSE of IDEOLOGY. It was my radical libertarian/objectivist/Rothbardian/Randian/Von Misian bent that let me see things that the society in general did not, would not, or simply could not see. I foresaw rabid inflation and I bought silver in 76. It was one of the most prescient investments I made. But I understand your point, and while I am still a holdout believing that, ultimately, the next precious metals bull will be inflation driven ( what is this wave of devaluations across the globe if not inflation's work? Only when the dollar goes the way of the rest of the currencies will there ONLY be gold to stand as a value standard for ( commodity ) money ) . So it is still ideology behind much of my view, with a healthy dose of astrological analysis ( I was not an astrologer when I bought silver in the 70's ) .
You are absolutely right, though, in the overall thought that one must make investment or speculative decisions based on what is CLEARLY sense to ONE's SELF, and not blindly follow others. As my wife is fond of saying, "I would rather make MY OWN mistakes, rather than someone else's. "

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:01 - ID#410198)
All:While in Ireland Clinton said
else makes all the decisions" take time to read "Worlds Doom Nears" this is not kook theory just facts.....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:04 - ID#410198)
sorry screwed up should read...You know,by the time you become the leader of a country,someone else
makes all the read the link below

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:04 - ID#384350)
Cowgirl - Planes Ain't gonna Fall from the Sky
...'cause they is gonna be grounded.

In a related note, I'm thinking of going to the boat show in Southampton this weekend if anyone wants to meet up.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:04 - ID#229207)
Russia: financial El Nino
C'Mon. Does P&G really do that much biz with Russia?

P&G Hit By Russian Woes
Shares of Proctor & Gamble are down 4 3/4 to 74 7/8 after the consumer products giant announced that it will be impacted by Russia's economic woes, forcing it to halt some shipments. The company said first quarter growth to be in the mid-single digits instead of the expected high single digits.

Spud Master
(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:08 - ID#28586)
A few observations....
@LGB: "Even in Russia it's dollars they are hiding under their matresses, not precious metal coins."

I don't think you know *anything* about what Russians are *really* stashing away save what you are told by the media. And the media isn't about to report the truth. Oris, if you are out there, what are Russians "stuffing" under their matress?

@ShortSeller: That's the very reason I have gritted my teeth and paid the premium for 1/10oz and 1/4 oz Maples. It will be awkward to fork over a 1oz Maple and have the person give you a pound of coffee and his teenage daughter for change. As Tolerant1 also mentions, junk silver will make nice change as well.

Well, well, well ... Greenjeans makes a few muddling statements and the market goes up 380 points ... only there doesn't seem to be any accompanying interest rate reducution so it all goes *POOF*!.

Poor, deluded boomer/yuppers ... you will loose everything & more. Get out of the market or join EB with his pile of Disney stock, wallpapering his dacha.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:09 - ID#230244)
ABX To add to the confusion.
In this morning's GLOBE & MAIL in an article on the Canadian Real Estate outlook. It mentioned "Weak share prices for the real estate sector have prompted at least three companies TRIZECHAN CORP. PLUS 2 OTHERS TO ANNOUNCE PLANS TO BUY BACK their stock in a bid to prop up the price." This could cause people to beleive that ABX is involved. I owned TRIZECHAHN CONVERTIBLES which can be converted to ABX shares.At I believe is $31.00US. Mr Munk as ways of confusing people.Will he now buy back both mining and real estate shares.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:12 - ID#373284)
robnoel, Namaste' and a hearty gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...I for one am
an American and I am totally against the missle attacks Clintler recently ordered...TOTALLY...what America knows and more importantly understands about the ME and Islam is zero...the state department and our intelligence communities have failed miserably...cost hundreds of thousands of lives and have to date accomplished...ZERO...I have zero desire to see one more individual perish due to this insane attitude and that includes individuals from all sides in the supposed conflict...

It is only by keeping the conflict/s going that the dirtbags in spheres of power can remain intact...and I do not support conflict nor death...

Clintler should be tried for treason against the Republic along with many others...their ways are the highway to poverty...ruin...and death of decent people worldwide...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:17 - ID#229207)
Dow extends losses, renewed worry on Clinton fate
NEW YORK, Sept 9 ( Reuters ) - The Dow dipped to session lows
Wednesday morning in a wave of profit-taking after arecord-breaking rally.
Some dealers said the sell-off accelerated amid renewed
fears that President Clinton will be impeached.
The Dow extended losses as news came out that U.S. House
Speaker Newt Gingrich was calling for public access to
independent counsel Kenneth Starr's report on the MonicaLewinsky scandal.
At 1114 EDT/1514 GMT, the Dow was down 92 points at 7928.
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

Those might have been the history's most expensive BJs.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:17 - ID#373284)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' and a festive gulp to ya from this side of the Island that is Long
So what is James Whitmore really like when he is not selling Miracle Gro?
bbl going laptop hunting with a fistful of fiat...heh...heh...heh...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:18 - ID#242325)
Policymakers must jettison their worries about inflation
This is a direct quote from an editorial in the latest BUSINESS WEEK magazine. Music to a gold investor's ears. Yes indeedy!

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:18 - ID#384350)
robnoel, wrong link
Wrong link, that editorial is from Sep 3, but Klinton said that on Sep 4, a story I broke here.
Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 13:04
Gianni Dioro ( Klinton admits to the office of the presidency as being a tool ) ID#384350:
Klinton said today in Dublin, "By the time you become president, someone else makes all the decisions. You just sign your name."

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:25 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- Perhaps you don't see Russians going around spending 'precious' is because they have little ( if any ) about. Seems the USSR frowned upon gold ownership by the people as much as FDR!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:27 - ID#350179)

New laptop model on the market: "The Monica"
Consumer test comment: "It keeps going down, but fortunately it has a tape backup."

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:30 - ID#213265)
@the scene
LGB -- In fact, anymore, those same people cannot find dollars, can not get their quickly devalueing rubles out of their banks, barter is the order of the day, and if a REAL coin were ever to make itself known, it would certainly command attention!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:36 - ID#41338)

I've been eagerly awaiting your next post. Your last post indicated on Thursday ( 14:25 ) indicated that gold would again be testing its downtrend lines which is exaclty what is happening these past two days. I hope your last comments about a gold rally " hopefully" occuring shortly there after become reality.

I recall one of your previous posts back in March or April when gold was testing the $315 mark that this was only an interim rally and that gold would continue on its downtrend once again past the $300 barrier. If I recall, your insights were opposed by some ( which is why I think this site is so great- otherwise we could all get tunnel vission ) Your call was right and I have since become a loyal follower of yours although I recognize that not everyone is infallible.

I have enjoyed the Kitcol discussion group very much over the past year from stricly an observation point of view. I believe we have many talents here, that when combined, make this one of the best places to be . I would certainly hate to see us lose a few of you because your differences of opinion have struck a nerve. Remember, your presence here is what makes this place such a valuable and enjoyable place to visit. ( I hope soon that the gold bull is on so that these tensions are eased ) .



(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:42 - ID#242325)
Merril Lynch quite bullish on oil. This, of course, contrasts sharply with the super bearish gold outlook. Nice to know they are bullish on at least one commodity. Perhaps even gold someday.

BTW, if they are right oil stocks will explode before long.

CALGARY, Sept 8 ( Reuters ) - Canadian oil and gas stocks maintained a strong upward trend on Tuesday as
the long-term outlook for oil prices continued to improve, industry sources said.

''Oils have been perceived as an out-of-favor group for some time -- they've been beat down quite a bit,''
Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Robert Hinckley said. ''I think the consensus view is the worst is over.''

In anticipation of further production cuts by OPEC, the onset of winter heating season, strong natural gas prices
and reduced inventories of oil and oil products, the Toronto Stock Exchange oil and gas subindex gained
174.46 points -- up 3.61 percent -- to 5,004.41 points in late-day trade on Tuesday.

The subindex is up more than 14 percent from its recent low of 4,381.71 reached on September 1.

Gainers on the day included Canadian Occidental Petroleum Ltd. ( Toronto:CXY.TO - news ) , up C$2.20 to
C$23.60, Suncor Energy Inc. ( Toronto:SU.TO - news ) , up C$1.80 to C$39.50, and Canadian Natural
Resources Ltd. ( Toronto:CNQ.TO - news ) , up C$1.50 to C$22.50.

Merrill Lynch is estimating benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil will average $16 a barrel in 1998,
anticipating a recovery in oil prices in the fourth quarter, and $19 a barrel in 1999.

''The debate right now centers on when oil prices will turn, not whether they'll go much lower,'' Hinckley
said. ''If we have our normal winter that will certainly help, but the real key is getting somebody, either in
OPEC or among the non-OPEC producers, to cut production.''

''If we get an indication that OPEC is heeling to the promised cuts, that's really all it's going to take to get oil
into the upper teens,'' he said.

The October contract for WTI was down US$0.29 a barrel to $14.30 on Tuesday.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:49 - ID#254321)
Looking into the future -- dimly
What should we look for in planning our investments?

Easy Questions:

1 ) Will K Starr give his report to Congress in a few days ( or a week ) ? Or will he wait till next year since the Republicans are unwilling to go forward with impeachment proceedings till next year?

2 ) Will AG actually lower rates?

3 ) Will the South American markets continue to fall?


1 ) K Starr will probably give his report to Congress very soon, and some of it will leak out, even if Congress does nothing.

2 ) Maybe, but not till the markets drop some more. He does not want to end up stimulating the markets in his attempt to bring down the US dollar.

3 ) Yes -- the basic process has begun, and there is no indication that the 'powers that be' will do any better than they did in SEAsia.

Hard Questions:

1 ) Will Japan move away from the brink, saving the world from financial oblivion?

2 ) Will the US markets crash outright?

3 ) Will Russia fall into revolution, and move toward a totalitarian form of government?


1 ) My biggest concern is whether Japan is in control of their own affairs, or whether the Yakuza are under control. If Japan implodes, things will come to a head, and the US markets might very well crash. But the Japanese have a historical tendency of not reponding to a crisis until the end is near, and then they do the right thing. Their solution may not be easily discernable to our 'Western' minds.

2 ) US markets -- probably no crash at least till y2k. We are in the throes of an information revolution every bit as traumatic as the industrial revolution. We forget about the good still coming our way, acting as a cushion for our markets. We will eventually met our own debt/financial crisis, probably after the rest of the world is on their way to recovery.

3 ) Russia will continue to muddle on for a while. Humans are notorious for doing nothing as problems get worse, even when you expect that they would react -- the old 'slow cook the frog' problem. Eventually, hjowever, they will have enough of this turmoil, and demand a totalitarian government, unfortunately.

All we need to do is wait and watch, and plan appropriately. Easier to say than to do.

What wild times we live in!

The information revolution -- the worldwide fiat currency debt crises -- the awakening.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:56 - ID#387288)

dec gold halted its rise at the downtrend line drawn from the 4/23 & 7/21 highs.

The strength in gold is encouraging today. If we can get to 290.30 today or 290.00 tomorrow the fuse will be lit for a takeoff to 300. Can't know of course when the line will be penetrated but whe it is look out. We may end up following it down for a few days--probably until Comex Oct options expire Fri. Thanks a lot you jerks.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 13:57 - ID#269128)
SDRer...forgive my ignorance...
but how is the 3P unit calculated. I presume this is some kind of tri-polar global currency unit the CB's are using to keep things "balanced"?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:01 - ID#350194)
Commodities, Stocks and the Prez
Interesting to hear Clinton acknowledge that he has no real power. Too bad he didn't spell out exactly who or what is pulling his strings. ( The ones of power that is, we already have heard enough about the other string pullers ;- ) )
"After learning the tricks of the trade,
many of us think we know the trade."
----------William Feather

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:12 - ID#153110)
@Wanniski:: My Candidate for this Year's Lenin Medal for Gold Standard Flummery
"The state, after all, owns almost everything in 11 time zones, which it acquired in the 1917 revolution. All of these assets can be used to back up the exchange rate by converting them at the ruble price of gold." - Wanniski

In the Triumph of National Socialism in America in the 1930's, the Federal and State governments likewise jointly laid claim to ownership of all the land and its resources. And "backed up the exchange rate" by pledging them to the debt. Later, with Social Security, the labor of the people was likewise pledged to the debt. Wanniski is simply advocating a means to flimflam the Russian public into the FDR system. Some gold standard.

There is nothing here but a prescription for unlimited, uncontrolled spending by the state on credit and interest on indebtedness to be paid everlastingly until there is not enough substance left from a day's work to feed a man. When a man owns nothing but his moveables, he has nothing to bequeath and no place to stand on which to live according to his values, beliefs, and convictions. This is the prime agency for the destruction of the family by the state.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:15 - ID#254321)
What is the difference between an average president and a great president?
Mooney: I think all of our great leaders took the bull by the horn, and did what they thought was right. Some were assassinated for this.

I think our current president got in as the dark horse because he basically said that he would do what his powerful supporters wanted. My guess is that this is the baseline by which most presidents get to be where they are. And some never grow out of this ground state role.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:15 - ID#410198)
Gianni Dioro...should have made myself clear...that statement by Clinton refers, as we all know to
real power brokers....the link to the story Worlds Doom Nears in The Winds article just confirms who THEY the way Kudos on breaking the story Joe Farah also had that quote in Mondays WorldNetDaily.....Why Bill Clinton is Toast go to Between the Lines archive

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:26 - ID#290172)
moa--Well, yes. And no. {:-))

When research on the Euro made it seem probable that effort would be made to align the USD:Euro, I began to look at the crosses of the tri-polar world.
I sought a tool that would give me a snapshot not seen by the casual observer. The Law of One Price proved to be a viable view-finder.
I DID NOT expect to see the POG in XEU, DM, Yen, USD establish a consistent pattern. Tracking the first couple of months of data, I was -quite frankly-astonished that they ALL lined up with the POG/USD. But they do.

This is the simple little tool. If you subscribe to the Economist, you are probably familiar with it. I'm sure the CBs are utilizing a VERY high-powered version of this, but this helps us see more clearly, yes?

a two-country world ( Germany and U.S. ) with just one tradable commodity -- a personal computer
no significant transportation costs, no tariffs or other trade barriers
cost of computer in Germany is 1500DM and the exchange rate is $.80/1DM
POG ( 554 ) in DEM and the exchange rate .56/1DM
How much should the computer sell for in the U.S.?
( 554 ) ( .56/1DM ) =
Solution: ( 1500DM ) ( $.80/1DM ) = $1200

"all prices are relative prices, including the exchange rate, since the model includes no money or assets and thus cannot determine the aggregate price level endogenously. "Relative to what" is determined by choice of numeraire. Devarajan, Lewis, and Robinson ( 1993 ) sort out the relationship between the exchange rate variable in a CGE model and various measures of the "real" and/or purchasing power parity exchange rate.

COMMENT: The salient point being, the "Purchasing Power Parity" price of gold in XEU,DEM and Yen closely track the quoted market price of gold in USD.

Have I now managed to completely obfuscate everything? {:- )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:38 - ID#287279)
What a quote!
Regarding 11:22
This quote marks the first time that someone from the academia or the government openly admits that the situation is beyond all institutions control.
No spin, no BS.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 14:49 - ID#424394)
The need for privacy demands cash or Gold & Silver coin
When I buy ammo, girlie mags or Preparation H - I will NOT pay electronically where my buying habits get recorded and published to anyone who asks. I'll use greenbacked cash as long as it is accepted and under-the-table thereafter. I'd love for the underground private economy to trade with Gold and Silver coins. Let's see - one each of Playboy, Club and Gallery cost $20 or so - about half of a 1/10 ounce Gold coin.
What are we going to use for change? Silver quarters, halves & dollars? But those are HEAVY and wear out my pockets. Maybe we will have to cut the 1/10 oz coins into 4 slices - about 12 grains or US$10 each. For smaller change we cut those in half - about 6 grains or US$5 ( one cheap paperback book ) . I guess that takes us back to 8 bits to a coin. Shave and a haircut - 2 bits or currently US$10.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:06 - ID#254288)
Lowered Interest Rates.YEN now @ 137.12/$ ???????

Possible reasons:
1. The Yen had been waxing too strong lately and perhaps T-bill redemptions and dollar conversion back to yen was a possible reason for its recent strength?

2. A Preemptive Strike in fear that a possible US rate decrease would make the Yen still stronger?
I'm not sure if it was to ease repayment of SE Asian loans, as many of these loans must have been made when the YEN was below 100/$, so many will likely be payed back at cheaper exchange rates than when initiated.

3. Perhaps it was determined at Berkely that a US rate cut would create a dangerous blow off in the US markets and Japan was given or accepted the task of acting?

Damn I wish I knew what inspires these global rascals.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:09 - ID#210235)
@Russia break-up, North Korean strength
The London Times is reporting today that Russia's paralyzed government has lost control of some regions, with local governors taking control of matters and enforcing ( illegal ) price controls in an effort to stave off mass starvation at a local level. Alexandr Lebed is among the governors who have taken this extreme measure. Yeltsin is apparently in seclusion trying to find a new nominee to run the government.

In a separate article, the LT reports that South Korea has announced knowledge that N. Korean missiles can now hit US bases at Guam and Okinawa. Also that the US has moved 6 heavy bombers to Guam. The US has denied a connection between the two events. Thank you, Mr. Clinton.

Chaos and flux indeed!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:10 - ID#293211)
Americans still Dont GET IT

Americans Still, "Don't get
by William Cooper
 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved
CAJI News Service - Exclusive - September 9, 1998 - Friday the world's
financial markets were in ruins as the fallacies of "global interdependence"
caught up with the "utopian social engineers". Nothing changed over the
Labor Day weekend, in fact things got measurably worse. Alan Greenspan
said, "It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of
prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased
stress,"and that the Federal Open Market Committee would have to consider
carefully all the developments since the Fed's last policy meeting in August.
That is the strongest warning ever issued by Greenspan. On Tuesday, despite
all the foregoing, the New York Stock Exchange picked up the highest one day
gain in its history. American investors just don't get it, and because they don't
get it they are in for a fall the likes of which has never been seen in American
How many investors know that Russia has repudiated its debt? How many
know that the west has loaned Russia over 200 billion. Half is owed to the US
government, International Monetary Fund, and other institutions. A lot is
owed to European and American banks. German banks hold the largest single
portion of this debt and face a loss of $53 billion. The Ruble has collapsed,
many Russian banks are now insolvent, and the Russian People have seen
their savings disappear. The Russian economy has disintegrated, Russia's
central bank halted trading of the ruble Tuesday, and there is still no
government. The Duma voted on Monday to reject Chernomyrdin for prime
minister for the second time in two weeks. If the Duma rejects Yeltsin's
designate one more time, the law will force Yeltsin to dissolve the Duma.
Several very credible factions have threatened imminent revolution if that
Tuesday Japan announced that its economy has slipped even closer to the
spectre of recession. Economic Planning Agency ( EPA ) Minister Taichi
Sakaiya said, "Japan is not in a deflationary spiral, but is near the entrance.
There is a danger of being sucked into one, and the main reason for that is the
international environment." The Yen has slid to its lowest since the 60's. The
Minister issued an EPA report which stated that its overall assessment is that
the economy is in a "prolonged slump." Sakaiya changed the wording to
describe conditions as "extremely severe" instead of "exceedingly severe."
Takashi Omori, national economic division director of the EPA's Research
Bureau said, "We revised our assessment slightly downwards by changing the
expression to show an increase in severity." It is no secret in Tokyo that the
economy is in ruins and the worst is yet to come.
All Asia is teetering upon the verge of total economic disaster. The region
hinges upon Japan. There are riots and poverty in Indonesia. The Malaysian
government may collapse. Even the Peoples Republic of China has admitted
that its economy has been shaken. Several smaller Asian countries may fall to
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, and many more Latin
American exchanges and currencies have collapsed. The Mexican Peso has
become almost worthless. We can expect a new, and much larger wave of
desperate illegal immigrants to surge across our southern border and you can
bet the socialist Democratic administration will do little or nothing to stop
Nothing will or can stop the total collapse of the entire world's economy over
the next several months and maybe even years. The Marxists have prepared
this event well. It will happen. A major shock to the U.S. markets will occur
within the next several weeks... watch out for October 24th, the day which
marks the greatest Marxist/Leninist victory in the history of the movement. A
house built upon sand, of paper, with no supporting framework, no beams,
and sitting in the path of a great wind must, and will, come tumbling down.
For more news go to: Directory of Press Releases

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:15 - ID#254321)
House contacts Kenneth Starr's office about Impeachment report
All: Hot news complements of Matt Drudge.

History in the making.

And who wants this report more? The Democrats or the Republicans?



(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:15 - ID#290172)
JTF--What is the difference between an average president and a great president

About 197 years? {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:19 - ID#387243)
STARR's report to Congress
CNBC has just reported that Starr has sent the report to congress. Dow started to fall as this was released.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:20 - ID#219363)
US Market
Even less convincing performance today. I don't get the feeling this pig is gonna fly. Probably take a good drop and try again. That's what little bear markets are made of.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:22 - ID#269128)
Rally ...what rally....nuther 200 DOWn day?
SDRer...isn't this Purchasing Power Parity just because these three countries agree what an ounce of gold looks like ( i.e. it ways one ounce ) and can't agree what one unit of currency looks like?

I think if you do a similar exercise with any well traded commodity e.g. oil, steel, alum. etc you will get quite good agreements also. Gold is probably the tightest agreement because not one CBanker wants to be short changed for his/her gold, of course.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:32 - ID#254321)
George Washington or A. Lincoln would be a good choice.
SDRer: I'm not sure which president 197 years refers to, but I get the point. Dysfunctional president for dysfunctional times. I think also that momentous times bring great leaders to the fore.

Why not a great leader during peacetime so that we do not need to fight the next war? Doesn't work that way, does it? Russia needs a great leader right now -- where is he/she?

I am relieved that at least some of our basic American values have survived over the years, or we would not be considering impeachment at all. I was beginning to wonder whether K Starr would come up with anything. Sort of like getting Al Capone on income tax evasion when nothing else would stick.

I am not pleased to have America go through this embarrassing and painful time, but it is necessary, and we did ( with our own naivete ) bring it upon ourselves. Too bad a few unscrupulous leaders aided and abetted him in his meteoric rise from what must have been a very disfunctional origin in Arkansas.

Would be interesting to hear what A Lincoln or G Washington would have said, if either of them could have posted today on this site. Even RM Nixon would have been appalled, IMHO.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:39 - ID#372276)
those JEIL charts of Silverbaron last night at 00:07
Well you know,--how could those charts of Silverbaron's have anticipated a Japanese interest rate cut & the Starr Report?

They troubled me very much when I saw them last night but I convinced myself that Chaos theory made them impossible and that obviously they were able to predict short-term trends with some accuracy, and simply readjusted automatically the long-term trend.

But the Precipice is next and it looks like the charts predicted it. But how could the chart predict Japanese policy changes and the Starr report. Those are exactlly the kinds of variables that make these charts impossible.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:41 - ID#350179)
DOW off -1.77%
XAU off -4.12%

Looks like exit trigger ( down ) might be hit tomorrow.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:55 - ID#289357)

We control the horizontal.....

We control the vertical....

P.S. I'm just the messenger, not the author.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 15:57 - ID#219363)
Changing Japan's interest rates, keeping up the value of the Yuan, holding the level in Hong Kong, lowering interest rates in the US, backing the ruble with Gold, changing rates in Canada, defending the Peso, etc, etc, etc. In my humble opinion - it just doesn't matter. All of these things are reactions that individuals and organizations are making to something that is bigger than they are. The bear is here. The trend is down. Starr's report can be a catalyst, but it isn't a cause. It's a non-event.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:00 - ID#431200)
Prometheus N. Korean missiles can now hit US bases at Guam and Okinawa.
I would like that you publish the article if it's possible .Thanks.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:03 - ID#350179)
DOW -1.94% 7865.02
XAU -4.57% 60.84

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:09 - ID#372276)
Oh I know--

This is just the sorry lament of a guy who bought gold stocks in 1997 in anticipation of the debt bomb and is down 50-90% thereon: and if Silverbaron's charts are true--has no hope of recovery before the Y2K.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:10 - ID#252150)
Can you believe those wacky Japanese? This mornings huge drop in the Yen is
a perfect example of the danger in trading the dollar/yen & the type of volatility & manipulation that caused me to give up on it. Anyone long the yen/dollar last night woke up this morning $10,000 poorer per contract.

Seems that POG just can't catch a good break. I sold my au stocks this morn. Up around 17% in 1 week on mid 5 figures. Up over 35% on my au stocks so far this year. Too bad I could'nt do even 1/2 that well with the rest of my portfolio. Unfortunately my other losses more than wiped out all my au stock gains. I'm a slow learner, but I've finally learned to think really short term. I'm buying & selling short now now mainly on vol reversals & 5 day intra-day charts.

Still think we may see 300+ POG near term but will not stay with the au stocks when they are under pressure.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:17 - ID#377196)
"The bear is here. Doesn't matter what anyone does."

I think you are right on the money. After all the ammunition has
been spent there is only surrender to the contrary forces. If the fiat
money game is over no policy, no tax, no law, no interest rate change,
no impeachment, can alter that fact.

The world debt is HUGE. It cannot be repaid in current dollars.
So the only possibility is either INFLATE OR DIE.

Business Week says inflate. Alan Greespam says? His actions say
die. At least so far. What will AG do? It probably doesn't matter one way or the other. If the end is here it's here.


Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:17 - ID#254321)
Events and market behavior
Tamerlane: You ask a very basic but highly significant question. Do events shape the markets? Or can we predict the markets with graphs such as Jeil's? He could not have known when KS would deliver his report to Congress.
I have long been frustrated with understanding the same question that you have brought up. I think the bottom line is that there is a cyclical ( chaotic ) pattern to the responsiveness of the average investor to events. Sometimes the markets respond only to good news, and sometimes only to bad news.
Sometimes the news is significant enough that technical analysis ( or cycles/chaos analysis ) appears to be of no value at all -- like the impeachment proceedings going ahead. But -- you could argue that technical analysis still works, as the impeachment proceedings themselves would not have occurred without an appropriate change in human behavior. It does seem that technical analysis works better than it ought to work.
My intuitive guess is that -- the more I think about it -- that all of our behavior is modulated by Chaos theory ( the fibonacci series, cyclic events ) - not just the markets. It is just that it is so complex that we do not see it for what it is.
Makes you wonder about free will, doesn't it? Perhaps the concept of free will for billions of people is a moot point, since the behavior of a group of people is far more predictable than that of individuals. Perhaps free will does indeed exist, but only applies singly to individuals. Disturbing, isn't it -- to find out that to some extent we behave like schools of fish, or flocks of birds, responding to some hidden natural forces? Perhaps there is a life force of some kind what does not come in the form of food -- but from some other origin -- modulated by processes still hidden to us mere mortals.

The ancient Greeks did not believe that free will really existed at all.
My guess is that free will for groups requires that the groups must consciously work together. So we probably can actively shape the future if we wish to. If not, natural events carry us along in whatever direction they take us.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:17 - ID#377196)
"The bear is here. Doesn't matter what anyone does."

I think you are right on the money. After all the ammunition has
been spent there is only surrender to the contrary forces. If the fiat
money game is over no policy, no tax, no law, no interest rate change,
no impeachment, can alter that fact.

The world debt is HUGE. It cannot be repaid in current dollars.
So the only possibility is either INFLATE OR DIE.

Business Week says inflate. Alan Greespam says? His actions say
die. At least so far. What will AG do? It probably doesn't matter one way or the other. If the end is here it's here.


Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:19 - ID#348129)
@Clinton trying to APOLOGIZE his way out of impeachment --- Nixon should have tried that trick !
Starr report sent to U.S. Congress

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuters ) - A report on President Bill Clinton's involvement with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky was sent to U.S. Congress on Wednesday, the office of independent counsel Kenneth Starr said.

The report, which includes 36 boxes of documents, was traveling from Starr's office on Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol building several blocks away, a spokeswoman for Starr said.

``There are vans being loaded at Starr's office right now. The report is headed this way,'' a House Republican aide said. A section outside the House side of Congress was cordoned off to keep reporters away. At Starr's office, a dark blue van was seen being loaded with boxes and heading toward Capitol Hill.

The report, the culmination of months of investigation into allegations Clinton had an affair with Lewinsky and tried to cover it up, could lead to impeachment proceedings against the president.

Clinton first denied and then seven months later admitted having a sexual relationship with Lewinsky, now 25. He has issued a series of extraordinary apologies for his actions, including a statement to a Florida political gathering just minutes before the report was sent.

Clinton's private lawyer David Kendall sought to delay the release of the report, arguing that ``fundamental fairness'' demanded that Clinton's legal team be allowed an advance look at the document so they could put together an informed response.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:20 - ID#267344)
This may be of interest to some...
Starr Sends Report To Congress

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:22 - ID#213265)
@the scene
JTF -- I find it to be very 'interesting' when the timing of certain 'things' generally happen just when it appears on the chart that a move is at hand. Another form of 'wag the dog' perhaps?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:26 - ID#290172)
Nations sign 'Silk Road' trade accord
FT Wed Sep 9, 1998
By Carlotta Gail in Baku

Twelve nations of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Black Sea region signed a multilateral agreement yesterday to recreate the ancient "Silk Road" trade route linking east and west.

In an ambitious project, which has already drawn over $200m of investment to the region, the 12 agreed to develop road, rail, air and sea links from China and Mongolia to Europe. Specifically, the countries agreed to regulate transport tariffs and custom procedures across the region and set up a permanent secretariat to be based in Baku.

...Equally important, the planned route would provide the newly independent countries with alternative access to the western market from tradional routes through Russia.

Officials from the European Union, which has been sponsoring the plan, described the project as vital for the countries involved to secrue their independence from Russian hegemony..."

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:27 - ID#289357)
Tamerlane @ Jeil's projections
I continue to be amazed at the short-term performance of these projections. It remains to be seen whether the long-term projections are as good as short-term. If, however, Jeil's charts do in fact forecast accurately, one way to protect yourself would be to buy some out-of-the-money puts on one of the big cap gold mining stocks. I have not done this, but this morning I was considering buying HM puts for October expiration.

Strike 7.5 is symbol HMVU
Strike 10 is symbol HMVB ( I think these symbols are correct, but check me )

This is not intended as investment advice, just something I am looking at. I dumped most of my investment in gold mining stocks at the open this morning, and now have only 5% or so in the market.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:31 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.65. The 233 day moving average is 28.41 and this is the 7th consecutive trading day we have managed to close below it.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:32 - ID#254321)
At the turning point
Eldorado: We talk all the time just about the markets, and how to predict turning points. What if certain groups know about group psychology of the kind we study, but apply it to molding public opinion -- not just investing in the markets?

Frightening thought -- that we are being manipulated in a manner similar to how we humans manipulate the markets.

That would be a logical extension of cycles analysis/Chaos theory, wouldn't it? Why just focus only on the markets when you can control all human behavior? To a certain extent, anyway.

Lets just hope that the supreme being ( GOD ) is behind it all, and the manipulators are being manipulated as well. How would they know?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:33 - ID#421269)
Japanese Interest rate Cut

Does anyone have a reasonable explanation of this move? Where do they go from here? Negative rates?

Mad Hatter
(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:34 - ID#284230)
Spend MORE to get out DEBT?
WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) -- U.S. officials kept up the pressure
Wednesday on Japan and other sick economies to fix what's ailing them.

"Governments need to be prepared to spend large amounts of public funds" to shore up their financial systems, regardless of the impact such
spending would have on the government deficit, said Deputy Treasury
Secretary Lawrence Summers in a speech at an international conference
on deposit insurance.....

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:37 - ID#231112)
James & Jack: The Japanese, symbol of the mysterious East!

I am completely baffled by Japanese monetary policy, and observers like Larry Watchel now believe that they WANT a lower yen. He points out the apparent breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. and Japan on currency policy. Have they committed themselves to a Bushido policy of choosing deflation to ruin the American market? If so, they have made a sound beginning on a policy that could collapse global markets with their own.

Watchell is also puzzled by the differences in rates: the U.S. at 5%, the Japanese at .5%. Very odd that the only Japanese response has been to cut their rates! Seems like a kamikaze dive on the good ship U.S.

On another note, Ralph Acampora has set the following senario for gold:

"Gold ( $286.50 basis the December futres contract ) is failing into resistance seen at $294.80. A move through that level would be necessary to suggest an upside reversal in a very weak intermediate-term trend. Further retrenchment in price is anticipated over the near-term with minor support now seen at $286.00 and critical near-term support seen at $280.00. The major trend on gold remains down with objectives existing to $258.00. A move through $303.70 would be necessary to neutralize long-term downside momentum."

I think it important that those positives for gold-- the Euro challenge, a Fed rate cut and subsequent dollar decline, and growing recognition that hard assets will prove more stable than equities in the coming bear market--will enable gold to overcome its two year downside momentum. If not, I believe Acampora is correct in his view that gold can slide to the $250 range. I guess the next few months are crucial for gold's re-emergence.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
JTF -- GOD, the greatest manipulator of all? Or just all knowing of all results.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:45 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Mad Hatter -- Two ways governments can create a wave of inflation: 1 ) borrow the money from the banksters. 2 ) Simply print the money themselves.
Which, in your mind, ( or anybody elses out there ) is least damaging?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:47 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .214. The 233 day moving average is .253

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:52 - ID#43349)
I once saw a computer made of matchboxes and beads that could "learn" how to play tic-tac-toe.

The early computers used relays ( some earlier navigational computers used gears and cams ) . Later they uesd vacuum tubes, and today semiconductors.

So for a computer, anyway, the ability to compute is contained in a system of objects ( switches ) , each object of which might just be able to "remember" a single bit of information, but which when able to communicate as a system are capable of complex calculations indeed.

There was a psychologist one time who sent a letter to a stranger ( picked out of a phone book from a city across the nation ) , not by using the mail but by handing to some aquaintence of his own who for some strange reason or another might happen to know the stranger ( a doctor from Massachussetts ) . If the acquaintence didn't know the doctor, he was to in turn hand the letter to some acquaintence of his and so forth. Each person added his name to an accompanying list.

The psychologist was studying how long a chain of mutual aquintences might connect any two people in the US. The average chain was five people. The longest chain ( I guess he gave it to a bad choice to begin with ) was a chain of ten people. The shortest chain TWO people! And this was in the days BEFORE the internet.

A scientist was once asked if he thought a computer could think. He said it depended on what you meant by thinking, but no he didn't think so. The reason was because the average computer was a system of a several hundred thousand components ( perhaps a few millon today ) each of which was directly connected to just a few nearby ones, whereas a brain had several billion components ( neurons ) each of which was directly connected to millions of others. He just didn't think a computer was complex enough to think, but if you could make one it would probably be able to do something you could not distinguish from thinking.

Now consider all the millions of individuals in the world as individual components of a system. The psychologist showed that they are connected by chains of acquaintenceship. Today with the internet, telephone system, modern communication and transportation they are connected even more adroitly. Each component by itself is far more complex than a single neuron or switch or bead-in-a-matchbox.

Can the country or world be considered as a single entitiy perhaps capable of conscious thought in of itself?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:54 - ID#372276)
Yes, that could be true,

but like you say ( from what little I know of Chaos theory ) no system of analysis could consider all the relevant variables.

But all this assumes that the market is rational--which it clearly is not. Intuitive market behaviour presumes at least some inherent insight built on reason and rationality. If the broader market it so intuitive--then why fundamental irrationality like we find in the gold market and gold stocks. No, I must conclude that if the money on Wall Street really had any sense then it would value gold stocks above cash value. I don't think that most money on Wall Street really knows sh*t from shineola--it's not like they had to learn anything in the last 16 years.

Take this forum for example. Probably the most acute and atuned group of people around. Why?:--because we've been in a bear market for so long that we had to learn things the hard way. Would we really know more about the insidious fraud of F.R. notes than any other investors if gold was trading $800 dollars or $3000. No, we would most of us be commodity traders trading supply and demand.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:54 - ID#254321)
Some questions are unanswerable, I think

I think it is a given that the more we understand, the less we will know.

Humbling, isn't it? I still get the shivers when I think about nearly 1/4 of the stars in the Galaxy have planets. When you go through the numbers, you conclude that is almost a certainty that there is intelligent life in the Universe, even if it not really evident on Earth. There must be civilizations far in advance of ours that would consider our discussions today trivial. But -- even they may not be the ones with the ultimate answers to the secrets of the Universe. This mystery probably extends nearly without limit.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 16:57 - ID#229207)
U.S. banks offered negative interest rates for a while in the 30s. The Swiss had -100% rates for a period. Borrow $10,000 and in a year, the bank pays you... $10,000! Such a deal. This is necessary to stimulate business investment when the economy is collapsing and you're sure you're going to lose the money you're loaned.

When debt systems collapse, it gets pretty weird.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:06 - ID#372276)

no chance of that. no margin account. and no good trading record to create one.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:10 - ID#43349)
Carrying this thought a bit further...

Is a single neuron in a human brain by itself aware of that humans sentiment? Of love and anger and the appreciation of a sunset? If one could measure the activity of many neurons, might one find their cyclical behavior strangely connected. That when a certain stage of "sentiment" was reached activities from unexpected places would culminate in a collective sigh or gasp, or other connected activity.

Pehaps it is not so strange, that when the charts are ready for Mohammad, Mohammad doth appear.

National sentiment chose Clinton of questionable character over Bush at-the-helm-during-Glasnost-and-dessert-storm at the time. Now, the times have changed.

Perhaps the bull market is over?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:14 - ID#254321)
The Gaia hypothesis
Gollum: Modern Quantum Mechanics -- the 'New Physics' -- essentially implies that the Gaia hypothesis is probably correct in some sense. If you conclude that everything in space is interconnected -- at any instant in time -- or probably for all time, for that matter -- the concept that the world is a living entity of some kind with us included logically falls out.
The existence of a very high level background energy -- the 'Zero-Point' energy many times the energy level necessary for the formation of matter suggests that our reality is not limited to physical existence, but is far richer than meets the ( human ) eye.

As Alice would say, 'Curiouser and Curiouser'.

There is no shortage of wondrous things to learn about, if we could just open our eyes.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:21 - ID#304282)
The s&p futures are now 9 points below cash!
Could be big down day tommorrow.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:24 - ID#242325)

ned back to Bulls again. Sentiment is whipsawing as much as the
market is. The market is currently in the Bermuda Triangle but I'm putting
my call back to bearish. As I was writing today's commentary, I noticed
that in the past 30 years, a big decline has very rarely followed a big
gain. It just hasn't happened before and if it does on Wednesday that
would be further evidence ( as if anymore is needed ) that the market's
predominate trend has changed for the worse. Interestingly Abby Cohen
was interviewed for the zillionth time and she reiterated her bullishness
but she did not mention Dow 9,300 by year end. Bad Abby! Bad! No IPO
bones for you from Goldman Sachs! Not to focus on a person's appearance,
poor old Abby looking like hell during the interview...sort of like Joe
Granville before he switched from SuperBear to SuperBull.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:25 - ID#288252)
Computer Technology from Outer Space
There is a book out about the ufo crash in Roswell, New Mexico in 1947, which says that all our current computer technology, and the use of silicon, transistors, lasers, and kevlar for bullet proof vests originated from that ufo. The US Gov't adapted the alien technology and slowly introduced it to mainstream society.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:25 - ID#26793)
The dollar ends down (not a typo) on profit taking.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:25 - ID#280339)
Gold Bull ready for stage two!!
Two moderate down gold days and the sentiment at kitco is like a morgue. The Starr report is going to slam the dollar. The dow is heading for 6500 short term. Commercials have a large net long position in gold. Ordinary investors are starting to buy gold as the stock market moves down. Mining companies will have to cover their hedges. Greenspan will soon lower interest rates.

Don't let golds long bear market scare you away from the buy of a lifetime.

Get more gold!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:27 - ID#43349)
Ah yes. When considering the properties of the "fundamental partcles" one must consider that they or the space from which they are made has the property such that if a collection of them are put together in the right way it starts thinking conscious thoughts.

Certainly brain wave mapping experiments have suggested that "decisions" originate in various highly localized regions. Perhaps as localized as the jump of a single electron from one quantumm level to another. Leading one to speculate how global collections of electrons can influence the quantuum fluctuations of others in a rational non random way.

At some fundamental level the cosmos is capable of consciousness. I know, because at this very moment I am aware of at least this small part of it doing it.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:28 - ID#343171)
The Economist, good global synopsis

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:32 - ID#26793)
Russian "government" issues new rules on hard currency held by exporters.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:33 - ID#408228)
RE:Voyeur Prof./Japan
Possibly the Japanese are taking a leaf from the U.S. playbook during our Real Estate related banking problems. The U.S. dropped rates substantially, which allowed the banks to borrow cheaply and lend at a higher spread than they might have ordinarily been able to. Cheapening the yen in the process also allows them to export more effectively.

There is an article by Peter Drucker in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs that discusses the Japanes bureaucracy. His premise is that they're smart, and that the best policy results they ever attained in their history was NOT to act, and to in essence outwait their problems, which disappeared of their own accord over time.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:36 - ID#219363)
If computer technology came from the Roswell crash, the government works a lot faster than most people think. Roswell was the summer of '47 - Bardeen, Brattain, and Shockley were publishing papers on the transistor that same year. I'm sure they'll be sorry to find out that their Nobel Prize winning secret has been revealed.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:37 - ID#254321)
Here is another disturbing thing
Gollum: You got me going on this. I once looked at a Neurophsyiology textbook at the bookstore. There were graphical analyses showing how we respond to stimuli at a single neuron level. What was disturbing was that there was one graph that seemed to indicate that the stimulus for an event that would cause us to respond to an event began before the event actually occurred.

To this day, I cannot remember the name of the textbook, and whether this was a misprint. Perhaps it was not. Regardless of the truth of this matter, we do not function like the 'flip flops' of a computer, but rather by the cumulative processes of 'fuzzy logic' where information approaches each neuron from many sources -- and that neuron fires when the collective input reaches a certain threshold. This alone raises some serious questions about what causality really is, if a threshold must be reached before 'causality' occurs -- and we know something happened. This level of awareness, and the precise definition of causality is undoubtedly different for different people.

To answer your specific question in more detail, we know that much of the brain processes information in some sort of massively parallel fashion, unlike our current computers. Removal of some parts of the brain seem to have little discrete harmful effects, as if each neuron had a portion of all of the necessary imformation that makes us what we are. Like a hologram.

Now, of course, much of our brain is hardwired -- the brainstem, the Cranial nerves and the junctions linked to them -- the auditory, visual, and motor centers. I am talking about the cerebral cortex not involved in specific specialized functions.

Curiouser and Curiouser.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:38 - ID#26793)
Brazil continued to hemmorage dollars today

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:38 - ID#269128)
Premonitions and the biogenic field
bad karma on the way people.

The signs are all about us...this is the BIG one.

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:39 - ID#343359)
One of the new kids on the block
That's me! A new kid.
I posted this a.m. ( 9:28 ) Been wondering all day if anybody has thoughts
on the Yen-bond-Wallstreet theory?


Many Thanks...chicken man

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:41 - ID#29048)
Silver going up...
Dec silver settled up 3.7c at $4.95 per ounce, primarily on trade
buying. One trader said that he expected silver to climb over $5. "Seasonally we're approaching a better demand time," he said, anticipating "inventory-linked buying" due to encouragingly low prices.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:43 - ID#26793)
Hedge fund shake-out hints at deeper foreign exchange problems

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:46 - ID#227238)
Are you referring to the Boobs Upon the Potomac? They ain't that godddam bright. ..... If Shockley were around today, he'd be mighty annoyed to read that, I'm sure.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:47 - ID#26793)
My post at 17:43 is "must read". ( I'm taking names )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:47 - ID#43349)
But of course each physical "event" occurs as a "wave collapse" out of the massively parrallelity of virtual vacuum fluctutaions which are in some sense "aware" of all possible events besides the eventual one. Thus flows "time" into the past.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:48 - ID#153102)
Abraham Lincoln was syphillitic. A nut case like Janet Reno created the Martial Law
government that is surely bringing this nation to utter ruin.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:48 - ID#350179)
Has anyone seen this movie? Comments?

Topics suggested by JTF Gollum & others.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:50 - ID#350179)
Donald is right
Read his 17:43

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:52 - ID#227238)
Gollum 'n JTF:
Enjoy your speculations very much. Please continue.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:53 - ID#43349)
Also in considering the acceleration of an electron given a sudden impulse at time zero, quantuum electrodynamics indicates that when taking the reactive forces due to the electrons "self field", the electron must udergo a pre-acceleration at some time shortly BEFORE time zero! Putting the effect before the cause!?!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:53 - ID#254321)
Alien Technology transfer
Envy, shortseller: I have heard about that book, also. I do not know if this is true, but it makes alot of sense. How would a member of our government keep such an explosive discovery secret from prying eyes -- Russian, for example -- when our intelligence service was apparently riddled with moles after WWII? Also, what better way to introduce alien technology into our culture with a minimum of disruption?

What I find fascinating is that the Author ( now deceased ) , also said that only about 5% of the Alien technology actually found its way into the hands of human researchers who could figure out how to back engineer the devices. The author then proceeded to say that these devices are stored somewhere for safekeeping, but he has no idea where. I need to get a copy of this book and see if those other devices were described.

Too bad one cannot really decide if any of this is true -- but then, what if 5% of it is true? Same goes for Project Blue book. All you need is one firm 'UFO' sighting by a single reliable witness.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:53 - ID#219363)
@JTF, Gollum
Re: Holograms of the mind. I've even seen theoretical material related to that idea which suggests that the processes are super-conductive in nature, which lends a little weight ( no pun intended ) to the arguement. There are people out there claiming to have found what they're calling monatomic elements that don't show up on normal instrument tests, that have super-conductive properties, and that exist in quantity in the human brain. It'll only get more mysterious I'm sure.

I haven't been the same since the idea of particles moving forward in reverse time. *grin*.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:57 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 9

Gold 919,331 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 78,515,747 - 178,073 troy ounces
Copper 54,871 + 0 short tons

N/A= Not available.
As you can see, no changes for Gold. For Silver, we had a net change of
159,056 oz's removed from registered and a net change of 19,017 oz's
removed from eligible.
Alot of good comments continue to pour out of this site. I fear the day
when the PM's make their move and I can't get in because of overwelming
hits by lurkers, etc!

Well, it appears that the markets are going to pay close attention to the
Ken Starr report. We are getting closer and closer to fitting all the pieces of this massive puzzle together that will cause PM's to rise.
Right now, confidence ( lack of ) and fear are making their moves. The dollar is still declining against most major currencies ( with exception to
the Yen ) . Demand for PM's are increasing ( seasonally, as well as behind the scene ) . Market psycology and sentiment are changing. The picture is
about complete! The puzzle pieces are about to snap in place! We kitcoites know what this completed picture will look like. Start preparing now, folks...Start preparing now.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:59 - ID#43349)
Yes, I think that's Penrose's idea. Certain considerations about the cpacity of thought capable of being achieved by neurochemical impulses travelling across synapses at feet per second, compared to the actual performance of the human mind lead him to believe there must be some other mechanism involved also. Hence his "superconducing tubules". He has abook out, but I haven't read it.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 17:59 - ID#269128)
Donald...17:43...very important
forex swings becoming wilder even in "solid" currencies yen/dmark/dollar..

Such extreme action is largely unprecedented back to the 30's and in all currencies at once....could we be witnessing the final unwinding of the present rotten corpse of a fiat currency system?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:00 - ID#227238)
Yes, I did. Though it seems odd that banks would react in advance of potential problems. It's so unlike them to do that. No?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:01 - ID#29048)
Mutual funds meet excessive short-term redemption needs with borrowed cash. If their credit lines are cut off or cut back, then they will have to raise cash by selling stock, or they will have to maintain higher cash reserves which will reduce purchasing ability. The unwinding of derivative, short, or hedged positions is too awesome for my room-temperature i.q. to contemplate.

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:02 - ID#343359)
That might help explain the Fed's move to inject 10 Bil. into the
system via repos.

Could get a little hairy before this is over.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:03 - ID#22584)
JTF 17.53 Alien Technology
In the book, the author, who was a colonel in the US Army, describes how military intelligence went to great lengths to keep the technology out of the hands of the CIA because of the extreme penetration of the CIA by the Soviets.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:05 - ID#26793)
@Earl, Speed
Perhaps it is "orders from the Fed". Recall that in 1987 the Fed said it would cover blank checks written by any fund that had to redeem but did not have funds on hand. Payback time?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:06 - ID#229207)
Whacked out current account deficit hurts trading companies
The freight forwarder holding company that owns my wife's company just filed chapter eleven. True, they were badly managed but recent circumstances pushed them over the edge. Fast growing markets cover many ills.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:06 - ID#269128)
Chickenman...which 10 bill?
got a link?

Mountain Goat
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:06 - ID#35087)
Take my name too.
Hmmmm. Seems I remember reading about a credit squeeze right before a previous equities crash. Hmmmm. ( Oh $hit )

It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts when Starr's info is released to the media. If there is any impeachable ( really juicy ) stuff, I think we could see another 500+ point down day.

MG. ( Go Gold! )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:07 - ID#43349)
I can picture some little neuron working in a back room of the brain somewhere whose only concern is blood sugar level. It keeps going down and he can't understand why all the other neurons, if they were in their right mind, would ever allow that to happen. He keeps posting messages to the group alerting them, cajoling them, warning them. He is unaware that the global sentiment of this human's brain has turned toward diet and excercise in an attempt to improve health..or whatever.

Here we sit at Kitco. Wondering how any world in it's right mind could fail to understand the worth of gold....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:08 - ID#252150)
Voyeur Professor@There are some really strange things happening in all the
mkts, but especially in the currency mkts. The biggest debtor Nation is trying to tell the biggest creditor Nation how to run their financial mkts. By listening to & obeying orders from RR & AG the Japanese have pretty well destroyed their economy. Could their action today be in retaliation? I have no idea, but have no doubt that the Japanese have the means at their disposal to destroy the U.S. economy. Could the financial equivalent of Hiroshima/Nagasaki be about ready to explode the U.S. mkts?

I feel that all these mkts are extremely dangerous for the small player. Reminds me of playing table stakes poker when I was a young Airman. It cost me a fair amount of money before I realized that if 4 players started with $100 each & I started with 10 or 15, I had about as much chance of winning as a snowball in hell. In these mkts only the very quick & nimble will survive. IMO, all the bs about long term investing no longer applies. Long term for me from now on is 6 1/2 hrs.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:10 - ID#290172)
Donald--yr 17:43
Truly, it is a relief-- in many respects; they have managed to keep so much of it buried for so long! Even this "alert" races rapidly across
the piranha stocked 'liquidity' abyss...

Thanks for the charts. They are quite stunning.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:11 - ID#26793)
S&P downgrades several Argentinean banks

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:12 - ID#219363)
In any case - I'm sure it's all much more inter-dependent than any of us could have ever dreamed, and that's comforting in some strange way, I'm not sure why exactly. Probably a logical reaction to the western pre-occupation with individual parts living in a cause and effect world. I can see why it scares some of the hard-line physics folks, it all has the look and feel of sympathetic magic or something, and it'll take some time to incorporate. I bet it's fun out on the edge, I'm a little jealous.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:12 - ID#254321)
Dollar down due to crisis in South America?
Donald: Do you think the dropping dollar is due to capital flight from Brazil, etc? D.A. pointed out one day the CB dollar reserves were not sufficient in any country to maintain a currency by themselves. However, if there is a massive transfer of dollars from Brazil to the US, like what happened to Mexico in 1994, that might explain some of what is happening.

Any idea how bad things are in South America? Are they about to collapse in a manner similar to Indonesia, or more like Malaysia. I remember individuals like Rudi Dornbusch saying that certain South American countries were models of modern fiat currency management, and that the situation we had in SEAsia would not happen. Well -- time has a tendency to unveil the truth in such matters, doesn't it?

I think what we are seeing is the sequential destruction of our fiat/debt currency system - just by itself -- thought the ElNino events sweeping the world do seem to have preceeded the economic/financial events -- in the same sequence. How odd.

Curiouser and Curiouser.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:12 - ID#317193)
Donald...can you say...derivatives...
The worlds worst nightmare if counterparties can not pay.

Maybe, maybe not, but scary.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:14 - ID#252150)
I thought Clinton appeared very contrite & humble today. I can't see why the
American people won't forgive him. So what if he's a liar & a sociopath? Nobody's perfect. And after all, he never picks his nose in public & always looks pretty spiffy.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:19 - ID#227238)
The SP seems to be trading more actively this PM. Trending down. I presently show it off 4.40 at 998.60 with a low for the session at 996.60. It was pretty ugly close for the morning session, on volume. .... Spectators don't get margin calls; do they??? ...... {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:21 - ID#26793)
To tell you the truth, I am confused about the currencies today. How is it that the dollar, yen and gold are all down? Do we have any SF and DM quotes?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:26 - ID#43349)
It's both scary and exciting. Kind of like one's first teen age romance. No one has ever gotten a good handle on conciousness. Th physicists are interested in the mechanics of things, both classical and relativistic and quantuum. The chemists are interested in how the little lego blocks can be put togehter in sometimes intricate ways. The psychologists are interested in what people think about. This has kind of left consciousness to the philosophers.

Yet concousness and the potential for conciousness is a fundamental property of what the cosmos is made of. I rather think that the quantuum mechanists are the group wherin the epiphany will occurr, and when it does it will have far more impact than any that have gone before.

Let's hope that the cosmos is y2k compliant.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:27 - ID#227238)
Both the DM and SF look short term toppy. 3 sessions in a narrow range. I show the DM @ .5842 and the SF @ .7152.

EZ Believer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:27 - ID#173262)
Trillion resourses and Oliver Gold Merger
Anyone been following Oliver Gold? I have a bunch of old hard copy from a promotor but no idea of it's current status. Didn't think much of it at the time so I never followed it. Concerned that it could screw up a potential high flier?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:29 - ID#269128)
Chickenman...what is Japan up they know?
Seems there is this "feeling" going around that Japan is up to something and it isn't going to be good for the US....who agrees.?

1. Is it they are dumping US T-bonds at inflated dollar values?
Smart move.

2. Are they buying gold at deflated values?
Smart move.

3. Could it be they will crash US financials in the process?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:30 - ID#219363)
After all is said and done - God may indeed be in the details.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:30 - ID#26793)
Gold and silver coin prices at 11:30AM today

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:31 - ID#254321)
Your 17:43 is the bombshell of the week, I think
Donald: My intuitive guess is that the concern about the Hedge funds is the tip of the iceberg. If the pros are losing money in a big way, how about all of those banks that are trading derivatives? They are even more vulnerable.
Do you think this is South America - related, or world-wide? It will be interesting to see what happens to the US dollar over the next month or so. Wonder how many more derivatives markets will bite the dust, bringing down winner and loser together in a tangled mess with no cash for anyone.
Those derivatives markets were always the secret weapon -- not the equity markets, which are more easily understood.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:32 - ID#237299)
@EJ @your 16:57- on negative interest rates in the 30s

That sounded so plausable, yet when I looked up the historical
data, it does not seem to have happened.

The lowest discount rate occured in the years 1942-1945 at 1/2%

about the same time the prime dropped to 1%

actually, during the depression years, when common sense would
say the rates should have plummeted- they held up pretty good.

Where did you get your info? I'd love to see negative interest data.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:32 - ID#26793)

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:33 - ID#269128)
EZbeliever...oliver gold news toady..merger.

Bill Buckler
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:34 - ID#256381)
Hedge Funds
Re Donald ( 17:43 ) Donald is the premier news gatherer on Kitco - and anywhere else I know of. I absolutely concur with his 17:43 post ( "Hedge fund shakeout ..." ) as being a MUST READ.

In the last issue of The Privateer, one of my sub-heads was "Floating Currencies - An Obituary". It dealt, like the rest of that section, with the deadly danger to fiat currencies posed by derivative default through the inability of counterparties to pay.

Remember also that it was the persistent ( and equally persistently denied ) rumours that Japan's Fuji Bank had lost its shirt on derivative contracts which led to the Japanese interest rate lowering and the swan dive in the Yen today.

The pressure is mounting.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:35 - ID#26793)
I wonder if the Fed is trying to head off a financial disaster triggered by the Starr Report?

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:37 - ID#231101)
James, do you remember the old video game named, "Atari?"

You asked whether the U.S. financial markets are in for a possible Hiroshima/Nagasaki attack. Do you remember the old video game named, "Atari?" I do not know Japanese, but I remember reading a book in the '80's entitled, "The Japanese Conspiracy." The book came out at the height of the Japanese financial hegemony, and many were regarding the Japanese as invincible. The author, whose name I no longer remember, gave a disturbing, though possibly speculative, account of a planning meeting to launch the new Atari game at the Ministry of Trade in Toyko. Presumably the name "atari" was chosen because it was the code word uttered by Commander Fuchida who radioed "atari, atari" back to Yamamoto on the morning of December 7, 1941 at 7:58. I was no airman like yourself, but I am old enough to carry many experiences through my life of World War II, and I would not be surprised at an agressive Japanese posture in this global crisis. I hope my view is not regarded as a racist "yellow peril" view. I certainly do not have lingering hatred for the Japanese. But they are now fighting for their lives, and like their response to the U.S. embargo of oil and natural resourses to Japan in 1940 ( a move which many historians believe forced the Japanese military hand ) , maybe they do have a global response in mind that we don't understand. I just can't believe they are going to roll over and capitulate to Robert Rubin and the IMF.

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:39 - ID#231101)
linguistic footnote

Incidentally, I neglected to translate the Japanese word, "atari." It means "it struck."

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:40 - ID#227238)
Potential for consciousness? Reminds me of a book urged on me in the '60s. Written by a French Jesuit by name of Theilard De Chardin ( sp? ) . Don't remember the title anymore but it was a speculation on that very subject.

It was his thesis that the universe is evolving to higher and higher levels of consciousnes with an ultimate goal of knowing God. At the time it occurred to me that the his "Omega point" or the knowing of God, was thrown in as the final chapter, in order to pass muster with the Pappal Polizei. It was interesting but hellaciously difficult to read.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:41 - ID#43349)
When I looked at the major currencies just now it showed them ALL up. Up against what? Doesn't something have to be down.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
@Bill Buckler
Nothing is official until it is officially denied.

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:43 - ID#341297)
Here it is:


Sorry I don't have the slightest idea how to make this "clickable" It's
just "cluckable"

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:45 - ID#26793)
The Phenomenon of Man, Teilhard de Chardin

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:46 - ID#43349)
That's intersting. People have always wondered where they go after they die. Some have wondered about where they came from before they were born. A very few have wondered where the hell are they right now while they are alive.

Or then again, maybe at times, we all have...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:46 - ID#408228)
Negative Int. Rates
In the U.S., I know that there were a few weeks in the early 1930's when banks bought T-Bills at a modest premium to face for window dressing of portfolios at their year end to show that they were invested in "safe" assets.

With respect to Donald's post, the other interesting abnormality in hedge land is that the short positions that people put on to hedge interest rate exposure are now biting hard. If, for example, a person wished to hedge long mortgage backed securities portfolios for interest rate risk, the normal hedge is short T-Bond futures. The recent rush to avoid risk assets of all sorts have caused all assets, other than treasuries, to decline. Thus the interest rate hedges aren't working to protect interest rate risk, and in fact have added to exposures since people are short T-Bonds, and long nearly every other fixed income item, thus adding a component of short-covering to the flight to quality.

EZ Believer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:48 - ID#173262)
moa....Don't get me wrong, not automatically negative.

Just don't know a thing about Oliver Gold. Reviewing their website for basic information. How about someone who is well informed on Oliver to fill us in?

Aragorn III
(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:50 - ID#212323)
You can add my name to your list...Mission Accomplished.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:52 - ID#43349)
Hedge funds, derivatives, liquidity,...
I've got a BAD feeling about this.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:56 - ID#218222)
silverbaron,All; Re.Your 09:01 this morning. Elliot Wave.

The next to last count is the one that I am very fearful of! And the count of the sharp 1300 point decline was the wave -1- of the 3rd, and we are in, an A-B-C of wave -2-. This means that both scenarios are very dire indeed. IMVVVHO, we are at one of these counts, or the other. Its begining to look like the worst one, that being the -1- of the 3rd is done, and we are in wave -2- of the 3rd now. The reason I feel this way is if this were the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd, the corrective wave would have unfolded very quickly and we would not really have this kind of time between wave 2 and 3 of the 3rd. It seems like the whole up down and back up in late August was all the 2nd wave correction. Not an a-b-c, then a 1 and 2 with the 1300 point decline being the 3rd through the 5th. I didn't think this to be the case last week and I still don't!

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! If we start down very hard here, the odds are very high that the crash wave is about to unfold. This, if it is, will unfold in 5 Waves. If, and I do mean If this happens it will likely drop in point terms 1.618, or 2 or even 3.618 times the 1300 point decline. Do the math.

Most are definetly NOT expecting this to happen right now, which is precisley why it has a good possibility of happening! The sentiment on this last low and the comments from the ( You should be lucky you have us ) media are OUTRAGEOUS!!! They have been chastising people for even having the time to listen to the so called gloom and doom forcasters. No matter what they or anyone else has to say, it's not going to change the realities of what is happening out there in the Global marketplace. These are very real problems that are not going to just dissapear by buying the dips! Please be Very Very Careful!!!!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:58 - ID#227238)
I bleeve yer right. Thanks. I could not recall the title. ... BTW, was my synopsis reasonably accurate? ..... It was dimly recalled from a very long time ago. .... and the synapses are far less than they once were.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 18:58 - ID#254321)
Which way currencies?
All: I have one set of numbers from Telescan showing US dollar down slightly, DM up slightly, Yen down slightly and Swiss Frank unchanged. However, on MRCI the Swiss Frank is up about 0.5%, the dollar is up 0.25%, the Germna Mark is up about 0.5%, and the Yen is up 1%. Although the times for these exchange rates are slightly different, I think the problem is that all of the numbers are probably suspect.

If we are in a financial crisis of somekind where derivatives trades are being forcefully unwound by frightened banks, and AG is on the other side trying to hold things together, it would not be surprising that the numbers are screwy.

I think we will need to wait for whatever turmoil this is to pass, before we can figure out what went down or up. Who needs y2k? We are having problems right now without it.

Donald: You could be right that alot of derivatives holders all got cold feet at the same time, thinking about what Kenneth Starr's report is about to do to President Clinton. We may be seeing the demise of the US dollar, and the final trigger for the US market bear. Hopefully not worse than this.

Interesting times. Hard to know which way to head when the waves are coming from all directions. I for one do not want to broach.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:00 - ID#17077)
@LGBUGal...I'm sorry to hear you once blindly followed gurus...
LGBUGal posted:

Date: Wed Sep 09 1998 12:43
LGB ( @ JTF ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for your comments JTF. And lest those who missed earlier posts I've made think that I havn't been a
victim of losses in the metals...

The very REASON I take the perspective I do, is that I lost a portion of my ( then very modest ) net worth, back in
the late 70's on bad precious metals investment advice from my then Guru's...Howard Ruff & Granville. You
know, the guy's who were perpetually bullish Gold, Bearish Equities, saying essentially all the same things we
often see here.

However, being a young tadpole in my early 20's at the time, the losses I took in metals, taught me an extremely
valuable lesson... and that was NEVER but NEVER believe in Guru's. NEVER allow emotion or ideology to bias
important investment decisions in ways that could harm your net worth.

DO your own study. Be objective and honest as possible about the markets. Study every point of view, every


F* says...OK, NOW I understand why you hate gold chauvinists like myself. I had suspicions that you and RJujube had been burned in the past by certain "guru's." Now, you have become your own gurus to the PM investor masses, espousing your own brand of chauvinistic philosophy ( "Always trade gold...never buy and hold!" "In the long run, plat and palladium can only go up, etc., etc." ) .

I guess sometimes you slip up though. Hey, I'm sorry if you fell under my influence re: my analysis of the Pegasus situation....but there was nothing inherently wrong with the analysis. THe end result could have gone either way...but it went against the company. You win some, you lose some.

At least, you learned that the banks are not going to give an inch today to any gold mining companies that encounter troubles. So, next time, you'll be smarter. Sometimes you have to lose some dollars to augment your education. You never stop learning, my irascible buddy.

Don't continue to foam at the mouth and blame me, LGBUGal. Sounds like you're a grown-up boy now...nobody forced you to buy those Pegasus shares, did they? You read my purchased. I did not place the buy did!

Of course, there are Kitcoites that are probably influenced by you too. Thanks to you, tHey will buy Plat and Palladium expecting huge profit. What if it never materializes? What if tomorrow a new substitute is discovered that replaces the need for these metals? What if these same people dump their gold at 288 ( top of RJujube's assured trading range ) and for some reason, the metal shoots upward in a matter of days to 400? What if your analysis of PM's is not quite so astute as you are convinced it is? Result: you too shall incur the same wrath that you spew my way!

Yes, it's Pegasus, isn't it? Now we all understand.

Onwards and upwards.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:00 - ID#218222)
silverbaron,All; Re.Your 09:01 this morning. Elliot Wave.

The next to last count is the one that I am very fearful of! And the count of the sharp 1300 point decline was the wave -1- of the 3rd, and we are in, an A-B-C of wave -2-. This means that both scenarios are very dire indeed. IMVVVHO, we are at one of these counts, or the other. Its begining to look like the worst one, that being the -1- of the 3rd is done, and we are in wave -2- of the 3rd now. The reason I feel this way is if this were the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd, the corrective wave would have unfolded very quickly and we would not really have this kind of time between wave 2 and 3 of the 3rd. It seems like the whole up down and back up in late August was all the 2nd wave correction. Not an a-b-c, then a 1 and 2 with the 1300 point decline being the 3rd through the 5th. I didn't think this to be the case last week and I still don't!

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! If we start down very hard here, the odds are very high that the crash wave is about to unfold. This, if it is, will unfold in 5 Waves. If, and I do mean If this happens it will likely drop in point terms 1.618, or 2 or even 3.618 times the 1300 point decline. Do the math.

Most are definetly NOT expecting this to happen right now, which is precisley why it has a good possibility of happening! The sentiment on this last low and the comments from the ( You should be lucky you have us ) media are OUTRAGEOUS!!! They have been chastising people for even having the time to listen to the so called gloom and doom forcasters. No matter what they or anyone else has to say, it's not going to change the realities of what is happening out there in the Global marketplace. These are very real problems that are not going to just dissapear by buying the dips! Please be Very Very Careful!!!!!!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:01 - ID#269128)
gollum.....BAD feelings churning intenstinally here too.!
Maybe the PANIC has arrived early...I'm still picking Sept. 17 or Oct. 16 for the BIG one....strapping on the 10G seatbelts....better than a bungy jump.

Hello Aragon the Third.....sucked up any good kiwis lately?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:01 - ID#26793)
"Nepotism" in the Banking family?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:02 - ID#28861)
Kaplan has some new stuff on hedging too.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:05 - ID#43349)
Some hedge funds are massively short, some are massively long. Some are going to go belly up. Others will find what they thought was safely hedged is not.

Could be the mother ow whipsaws on it's way.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:05 - ID#348286)
Key U.S. lawmaker casts doubt on funding for IMF

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 ( Reuters ) - While stressing that a final decision had yet to be taken, U.S. House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston on Wednesday cast doubt his panel would agree to give the IMF the $18 billion the White House says it needs to deal with global financial emergencies.

The Clinton administration has asked Livingston's committee and the full House to give the International Monetary Fund $3.4 billion for the so-called New Arrangements to Borrow ( NAB ) , an emergency fund to help the IMF cope with future crises, as well as $14.5 billion to increase the IMF's lending capacity.

Despite warnings IMF cash reserves were depleted by bailouts in Asia and Russia, the House Appropriations' foreign operations subcommittee agreed in July to give the Washington-based lending agency only $3.4 billion.

The full committee will reconsider the White House's request on Thursday, before sending the IMF package to the full House for a vote.

Livingston told reporters that the Republican leadership had yet to decide on an amount for the IMF. ``That's still in a state of flux.''

``We have strong conditions for the $3.4 billion.'' But Livingston added: ``I think it's quite possible that the ( rest of the ) money can be withheld until conference.''

A House-Senate conference committee would be assembled after the full House votes on the IMF package. The committee would then hammer out a compromise.

``I frankly don't expect that this issue will be resolved until the conference,'' Livingston said.

The White House says the IMF urgently needs the entire $18 billion to replenish its reserves, drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Russia and three Asian states.

The Senate has approved the full amount. But opposition remains strong in the House, despite turmoil on world markets.

At a news conference on Wednesday, House Speaker Newt Gingrich and House Republican Leader Richard Armey blasted the IMF, saying its bailout for Russia had only made matters worse.

At the Clinton administration's urging, the IMF in July arranged a $22.6 billion package of new loans for Russia, aimed at ending the country's crippling economic crisis.

Despite the cash infusion, market confidence evaporated, Russian stocks and the rouble crumbled, sending shock waves through global financial markets and fueling fears that Russia's troubles would unleash a global economic downturn.

Citing the market turbulence, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has urged Gingrich and other House Republicans to quickly approve the $18 billion IMF package, to give the lending agency the resources to put rescue package together for other countries in need.

But Gingrich and other Republican leaders remained skeptical.

``The policies were not the right policies. They weren't being honored,'' Gingrich said, referring to the IMF's economic policies in Russia. ``We're now being asked to believe that the IMF will be better.''

Armey, the House's leading IMF critic, said the crisis in Russia was proof the agency was part of the problem, not the solution. ``We ought not just simply continue throwing good money after bad through the IMF,'' he said.

At Thursday's Appropriations Committee session, Democrats and Republicans who support the IMF plan to introduce amendments that would give the lending agency the full $18 billion requested by the White House. But without the leadership's support, aides said IMF-backers faced an uphill fight.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:06 - ID#227238)
I do surely hope you be talkin' Spoos and not gold. ..... Glenn Neely's big book just arrived this PM. Is it too late to catch up on all that ewave stuff? ..... {:- ) )

Aragorn III
(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:12 - ID#212323) THAT's what I'm supposed to do with them!
Those little hairy potatoes had me baffled. But then, if you are referring to the pedestrian bird, they have me equally perplexed. And then, if you are referring to heavy NZ yellow coins...I'm damned if I can lay my hands on one. Did aurator ever decide to set up shop? I'd likely be a customer.

Have a good day, my transmogrified flightless friend. The new height suits you well. Can't say as much about the extinction though...some days are tougher than others I guess.

gotta roll for now...

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:12 - ID#231101)
Japan's rate cut

As one response to my query about the inscrutable action by Japan to cut its rate to .25%, Steven Roche of Stanley Morgan told Lew Dobbs that the decision seemed ridiculous, unless "the Japanese know something we don't know" about their banks' desperate illiquidity and non-performing loan debt. He also offered the view that global currency crisis will bring the dow down to at least 7000, a very bearish number for a major brokerage analyst.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:12 - ID#218222)
Earl:I be talkin Dow Jones.
FWIW, I think that Gold has telgraphed it's direction when the s_!^ hits the fan. Look at last week.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:12 - ID#26793)
As you said, "hellishly difficult to read" but the Omega Point is the point at which you "escape from death" by turning inwardly to G-d.

PH in LA
(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:14 - ID#225408)
Shame and Degradation in the "Jihad"
"I sometimes just freak myself out with how much I actually know about so many things." ( From the unpublished writings of RJ/Jujube. )

It must be quite a shock for a "lonely soul trying to fill the void of ( his own ) useless existence" when he suddenly realizes that he actually knows something. So much so that upon realizing it he loudly proclaims to the whole world: "sometimes I just freak myself out with how much I actually know about so many things." Such an individual, who in all his infinite knowledge adhering closely to the unexamined clich "knowledge is power" finds it irresistible to use whatever puny knowledge that has so impressed himself to prop up his weak sense of self-worth by berating those with the temerity to disclose any lack of knowledge about any subject. Conveniently forgetting and ignoring in the process that every human being stores up vast knowledge in the course of a lifetime that would undoubtedly "freak out" even more this same "lonely soul" could his infinite knowledge actually encompass such a fact.

And so on such a tottering and insecure philosophical underpinning he proclaims "jihad" even as the originators of the word blow up buildings killing and maiming any and all who dare oppose them, by claiming for himself the foolish pleasure of ridiculing and belittling the opponent he expends his mental energy fighting. His cohort even stoops to serving up the well-worn argument that his opponent is "sub-human and pre-evolutionary" rather than a human being without calling forth any word of censure from the "lonely soul".

As one watches the unfolding of their "jihad" it all becomes almost painfully unbearable to behold. Every idiotic argument is pompously proclaimed by the participants with completely straight faces. For example, a poster offering to divine the course of platinum's future price is smuggly demanded to supply the irrelevant information of how many ounces of platinum are used in the average automobile's construction. Upon failure to fall for such a mindless trap by remaining silent, he is convicted of stupidity by the idiotic judge and his idiotic jury. All cavort and celebrate their proceedings by congratulating themselves, revelling in their "knowledge is power" axiom while imagining that they have somehow proven some major facet of their superiority.

Another highly respected idiot pleads for "market calls" and an exhibition of "knowledge" while trumpeting his own "market calls" with the obvious intention of interpretting at a later time anything offered in an effort to prove to himself that his hindsight is superior to the other's foresight. Such empty proof is passed out as valuable "knowledge", while he piously invokes his vast respect for "those who suffered under Hitler and the Holocaust", conveniently ignoring the charge of inhumanity that brought forth the reference in the first place.

The holy warrior imagines that "this place keeps ( him ) sharp and creative" by honing his skill at beating up on victims and bystanders alike, all the while explaing how it is that his supposedly supercharged creative talents go unnoticed and unincluded in another respected website because said website lacks " balance and perspective". We are told and expected to believe that he intentionally withholds his contrary views to enhance the "one-sidedness" of the publisher, denying him balance and perspective while lambasting the unappreciative cite for being "unbalanced"...exactly what he claims his voice would offer in the first place. The reader is exhorted to take this bit of convoluted illogic at face value.

The most fantastic part of the whole spectacle is the way the participants imagine their behavior is perceived. They brazenly parade around mugging for their internet audience, exhibiting their vacuous thought processes in the idiotic belief that their business will somehow be increased by the vast hordes of mindless investors that will flock to their telephone, e-mail and fax lines to buy, buy, buy; giving the term "bottom line" a whole new dimension. As if in the shadow of the bloated DOW, complete contempt for the intelligence of their prospective clients will somehow carry the day for their shallow and logically deficient arguments.

Just who do they think are the "greater fools", anyway?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:14 - ID#287114)
The book, "Symbolism of the Gods of the Egyptians" by Dr. TM Stewart, 1927, is a translation of Egyptian symbolism ranging from Symbolism of the Dead through to the Symbolisms of the gods of Egypt, of which there were many. If you read this book, and any modern book on the universe, you will find very little difference of the teachings of 6000 years ago. With respect to the universe, we as a people are probably in the days of the pyramids.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:16 - ID#288295)

I'm no Elliott expert, but that's about how I had
the situation in my mind even before reading the
site that I posted this morning....that we are in
( or just over ) subwave 2 of the 3rd wave which
will result in a crash very soon, followed by a
bounce back in wave 4 in late September and ( after
the final slam ) the end of the 5th wave in

It's a long way ( down ) to Tipperary, it's a long
way to go!

Take care. It will not be a pretty autumn season
this year, IMO.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:17 - ID#227238)
IMF funds funneled through the Russian mafia, have so driven up the prices of villas on the French Riviera that, that 18 billion is now urgently needed. Just to keep up with inflation. And IMF staff are having a difficult time just making ends meet.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:18 - ID#342376)
Commentary from Bill Murphy of the Veneroso camp found at "Le Metropole Cafe"
The Technicals -

As stated in the last Midas, there is "Guns of Navarone" type of resistance at $290 basis Dec. Those guns were blazing the past two trading days and pushed back the bullish assault. Nor for long, I suspect. The recent move below the $278 key technical area and subsequent, rapid move north above that area is very bullish technically as it suggests the breakdown was an engineered, false one. A killer move ( for the bulls ) as some would call it. Many times false breakdowns are followed by violent moves in the other direction ( which would be up ) . The open interest is a healthy 197,099 contracts and is still loaded with spec shorts. If $290 is breached to the upside and the "Guns" are silenced, these shorts may choose to exit at the same time and accelerate the rally that is underway.

Resistance at the $5.00 area is holding back the recovery in the silver price. We do not think it will be very long before that resistance is overcome and puts some smiles on the faces of the silver bulls. The Comex silver stocks are a puny 78,515,747 oz.

The Fundamentals -

The Japanese cut ( targeted ) their overnight funds rate from about one half a percent to one quarter percent. This put the Yen in the toilet for the day after it had rallied earlier all the way up to 130.45. Gold lurched down quickly in response to the surprise move and was affected by the Yen's retreat all day. The rising sunners waited until the Yen had moved out of break down danger and gained worldwide strength before taking this stimulative move. The rate cut is a down the road, bullish factor for gold.

Luxembourg dumped close to 12 tonnes of gold on the market in July which lends credence to our theory that pre EMU selling has been a major factor this past year in the gold price decline. More announcements of much larger tonnage are probably to come. The last of the selling should be right around the corner.

The London Telegraph did a story on the hedge fund shorts in gold ( I put the piece up as thread in the commentary posting forum ) . The essence of the story is that their short position may be huge and they could have a big problem covering short positions on any sustained rally. The reaction to the story by gold analysts was typical.

" You have to grasp at straws somewhere as to say why it ( gold ) has gone up $15 bucks", said one. I suggest that they will be the ones grasping at straws for explanations when gold explodes. The following, building market forces in play now may be the catalyst for the move and a reality check for the shorts or the unbelievers ( of a big gold move to the upside ) .

Reuters -Sep 9 - " A credit crunch is brewing in the volatile currency markets as U S banks cut trading lines to fund managers, forcing them out of leveraged investments and sapping more liquidity from the market, market experts said". "This could snowball into a bigger credit crunch problem", said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics. I suspect some of the big asset managers are in trouble as well. I see credit being reduced to asset managers, hedge funds and probably mutual funds", he said.

Gold has been a dead pooch for so long, few can conceive of a big move up in it's price. If we are right about the hedge fund short vulnerability, it ought to be reflected in the price of gold sometime soon.

Speaking of pulling in the horns, this Clinton mess may just be the spark that accentuates the implosion of confidence in the U.S. stock market and in the long term strength of the dollar, as well as igniting gold. I am a cynic about politicians ( how can one not be ) . Why is Senator Leiberman coming forth now and bashing Clinton about his behavior? All of a sudden he exclaims that Clinton is immoral. Run for the hills may be the new Democrat cry. Our grapevine says the Starr report is a beauty and the word is that cocaine showed up in Clinton's DNA results ( I do not want to be the next Drudge Report but what you should be aware of what some very smart people are saying ) - *** this is strictly rumor and should be regarded as such*** . If anything like this is true ( frankly, this is one is hard to believe ) , it will be messy, and gold could get quite a boost. We will know soon as Starr's report has just reached Congress.

In more mundane reportage, the dollar could be trounced for other reasons. India said on Wednesday it was suicidal for South Asian nations to depend on the dollar for international trade and urged them to explore the possibility of regional counter-trade instead. "After the Asian crisis which has the economies of the East Asian region very badly, we have realized that the total dependence on one single currency in international trade is suicidal," Indian Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hedge told a trade fair in Columbo.

This sort of serious talk is accelerating and is very bullish for the future price of gold. Bears take note.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

Over the weekend we received feedback that Barrick is planning to cover all its forward selling hedges and book a billion dollar profit. If true, it would rocket the entire gold market. Their buying would drive the price of gold higher and then other producers would surely follow suit and could cause panic buying by producers and spec shorts. We have long felt that the remaining, final pre EMU selling would be absorbed by someone in the know ( so they could buy some size without driving the price up ) .

What to make of this? It would the rarest of rares to know about something as significant as this a head of time, so one must look at it askance. It would be the best of news ,however. So we look for clues as to the veracity of the rumor. Yesterday, after the big run up last week, Barrick was up 1/8th while Newmont and Homestake were hit pretty hard ( down some 6 to 7% on the day ) . A pretty big divergence. Barrick is a big hedger. Not so for Newmont and Homestake. If we assume that the rumor is true and the smart money inside guys know what is happening, they would buy Barrick outright or shift their portfolios a bit to Barrick from Newmont and Homestake, because if a big gold move occurred, investors would want to be in the more solid unhedged seniors. That kind of thinking was in the market last week for Homestake and Newmont, but not for Barrick. This would be a new development for portfolio managers ( informed ) to consider. Hence, the very strange, divergent share closings of these gold mining companies yesterday. That is my take on it anyway. As a result, my eyes ( about this story ) were open much wider after the close than before.

Today Barrick was down 7/16, Newmont down 15/16, and Homestake closed down 3/16, which was about the same % as Barrick. The XAU closed at 60.84 down 2.92.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:20 - ID#227238)
I would posit, and have, that we are only a step and a half from the cave's entrance. .... {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:22 - ID#17077)
@LGBUGal...a full year later, you still crack me up...
...I do get a kick out of you and your buddy RJujube...all Born Again sweetness and civility on K-1 while posting rabid epithets and threats on K-2.

The catharsis must feel pretty good.

What am I...a surrogate punching bag in lieu of your employers...or your fathers?

I know the markets are tumultuous at the moment as they move swiftly toward some climactic moment. It's unfortunate you fellas are feeling so edgy about them.

However, I do agree with you on one point....cheerleading has little to any notable effect on the market. If general equities are headed for a spill soon, then you cannot talk or cheerlead them upward! The market moves where it moves in the face of all cheerleading. You can trot out all the statistics you want in terms of how wonderful the economy great equities have performed historically...all forms of cheerleading that ultimately will NOT affect the inevitable direction of the market if the psychology of the mass investor has changed.

So, why waste your breath?

Of course, I do not think there is anything inherently wrong with cheerleading. It can be a soothing process as one weathers the storm of "insane" markets that one is convinced will yield to sunshine.

But in the end analysis, yes, we do agree: the cheers will not affect the market outcome.

Meanwhile, just close your pretty eyes and contemplate all the sweetness in this world.

Eventually your rage and venom shall subside.

Yes...this too shall pass.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:25 - ID#17077)
@PH in LA... YOUR 19:14.... analysis.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:25 - ID#342376)
Read the repost on K1 that I made of Bill Murphy's commentary. In it, he also mentions what you did, namely the break below 278 in the price of gold was engineered.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:25 - ID#227238)
Thanks for the update. Somehow, I missed that conclusion.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:28 - ID#229207)
I just called my Uncle in Texas, who gave me the info originally. I confused two separate events. 100% negative interest rates were charged by the Swiss during 1970, not the 30s, and not to borrowers but to depositors. Unsavory characters were trying to hide money in Swiss banks accounts during the oil embargo. The negative rates were designed to discourage the opening of new accounts. The rates did not apply to existing accounts, like my Uncle's.

The negative interest rates offered by U.S. banks during the depression were not direct negative rates but a combination of sub-1% rates and other incentives that effectively allowed you to make money from the loan to overcome the risk of holding debt. So, apologies on that one, too.

Any time interest rates are below the rate of inflation you have, effectively, negative interest rates. If your inflation rate is negative -- deflation -- then the CBs hit a wall on rate decreases to stimulate the contracting economy unless banks loan money at negative rates. The Japanese, with lots of cash, ought to offer negative rates rather than allowing either a deflationary spiral to grip the economy or printing their way out and trashing the yen, as the US has self-interestedly suggested.


Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:28 - ID#231101)

I am impressed by your familarity with one of the great scientists and existential thinkers of this century. I will pay even more attention to your very helpful posts.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:36 - ID#316404)
@ PH / Fwipe......have fun boyz
I'll leave you two to your mutual mental masturbation for awhile.....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:37 - ID#287114)

Thanks Earl..Wife who is far too young and must be obeyed never heard of the word "posit"......neither have I.
Dictionary was in session and word is now posted. Thanks.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:38 - ID#26793)
If you like Teilhard de Chardin you will love William Irwin Thompson. Try and get a copy of his work: "Darkness and Scattered Light".

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:39 - ID#231101)

I heartily agree that rate cuts will be bullish for gold, but only if they succeed in reviving global deflation. Otherwise, gold will suffer like all other assets, both paper and commodities.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:44 - ID#237299)
EJ- thanks,
Imagine, the Swiss ( who played dumb when the Nazis brought them truckloads of fillings ) , would suddenly get moral. "Ve don't Vant your filthy lucer here, Herr Abdul- be gone!"

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:46 - ID#288295)

Sorry - I mean in ( or just over ) wave two, entering wave 3...and so on.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:48 - ID#17077)
@RJujube...for somebody who despises Clinton & Gore so intensely...
...and other aspects of the American Establishment, you sure place great faith in the various statistics purveyed by mainstream establishment organizations. Especially stats that validate your views on Plat and Palladium....or Wall Street's mainstream perspective today that denigrates gold's position in the global financial world.

Of course, that is your gift. You appear to have a quasi-photographic memory for all kinds of facts and data about all variety of esoterica. I have never seen a kid spew such huge volumes of stats about every uninteresting topic under the sun. Did you used to read and memorize encyclopedias as a kid? Probably did...and then I bet you'd put everyone in their place who dared to question you on some topic in which you held a vast store of data.

I know I did. Of course, when you get to be my tender age, the photographic memory begins to wane. I like to tell people ( if I don't like them ) , "Hell, I've forgotten more than you will ever know!" However, in general, I aim to build people up today...and make them feel better about themselves. That's owing primarily to the angelic influence of wife.

Once I got past the data collection stage though, I focused more on the seminal thought stage. The process began in High School then accelerated exponentially once I entered the Ivy League. In order to get to that stage, I had to question all data presented to me from all variety of sources. I had to ask, "Who purveys this data? What is their intent in purveying this data? What is its effect? Etc., etc.

No longer could I accept all mainstream data at face value.

Anyway, as I've said in the past, you're still young and evolving...getting there bit by bit.

There's hope for you and someday you will thank me for this post.


Your Old Pal,


(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:50 - ID#26793)
Brazilian Central Bank selling dollars (story doesn't say they owned 'em)

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:51 - ID#253246)
@EZ Believer ****silver standard should hire you as their PR man

I've read your recent posts and you're doing a better PR job than anybody they ever had; they should offer you a position. I received
my SSRIF Q2 report in the mail today and was suprised to see that
they found another turd with their silver reef property. One would
think with all the bad luck they had this year that they would be due
some good luck. Even if the Bowdens project turns up a mother lode
where are they going to come up with the finacing to proceed with
developement. Too many people have been burned from their private
placements that I doubt they'll be able to raise the cash.

Don't spread this rumor but I heard that the Bre-X geologist hired on at
SSRIF and never really jumped form that heli, just kidding I still hold
my 5500 shares at avergage cost of $4; what an ass kicking. I'll
buy more TVX & VENGF before more SSRIF.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:54 - ID#290172)
All--de currencies
Midnight or so 'over there', and the db has Tue -- Wed flat...
which means they are "calibrating" I guess
everything ( track gold and the crosses ) quoted as yesterday ( Tue )
will give them a bit of time to work their magic
and check back later
{:- ) ...or maybe {:- ( ( ?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:55 - ID#26793)
Peruvian Central Bank struggles to prevent dollar outflow

(Wed Sep 09 1998 19:55 - ID#218222)
Hey silverbaron! If it's over ( 2nd wave ) then It Is OVER!!!
If you look at the hourly chart, the indicators have worked off the oversold condition and are high, ready to turn down.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:01 - ID#215254)
Clinton Poll on AOL
Ah yes, another poll on Klinton.

In a Florida speech, President Clinton said, "I let my family down. I let this country down. I'm trying to make it right. I'm determined to never let anything like that happen again." Does this apology satisfy you?
Yes 4742

No 10519

Total votes: 15261

President Clinton said he hopes people will feel good when their children say they want to grow up to be president. Is he a good role model for America's children?
Yes 2134

No 12891

Total votes: 15025

Do you think that the House of Representatives should proceed with impeachment proceedings against President Clinton?
Yes 9313

No 5474

Total votes: 14787

Many Democrats have criticized the president's behavior. Do you think it is right for Democrats to criticize the president at this time, or should they stand by their man?
Yes, the right thing to do is to stand up and criticize the president's behavior 11715

No, Democrats should stand behind their president in his hour of difficulty 3086

Total votes: 14801

Do you approve of President Clinton?
Yes 3659

No 11138

Total votes: 14797

Do you approve of the job President Clinton is doing?
Yes 6152

No 8636

Total votes: 14788

I am
Male 9703

Female 5043

Total votes: 14746

I am
a Democrat 3429

a Republican 5464

unaffiliated with either major party 5763

Total votes: 14656

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:02 - ID#257136)
BUFFORD: I read yours re: SSRIF with interest.I actually have 6000, count 'em six thousand shares
of Bre--x which I'll trade for your 5500 shares of ssrif.

Never mind how I came to be holding such a chunk of ****. The fact is, I am.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:03 - ID#17077)
@CRAZYTIMES...thanks for the info...
...I'll look at the post.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:03 - ID#387243)
Homestake - Von Finck
Did anyone catch Kaplan's report that August Von Finck has acquired 3+ million more shares in HM. He now owns 30 million. Von Finck has filed with the SEC that he would like to acquire 25% of HM which is over 50 million shares.

I know many on this forum like to look at charts and see HM only going down which absolutely amazes me when someone with the clout like Von Finck has proven that he's buying from whoever's selling.

For all those grasping for positive gold news and wisdom from some form of gold guru ( Big Trader, Another, etc. ) , Von Finck should be THE MAN. Those who follow secret societies, new world order development recognize the Von Finck name. I would consider him an ultimate insider on the thinking of the "hidden" world's powerbrokers. The fact he has been aggressively buying a significant stake in one of the world's premier gold companies ( mostly non-hedged also ) says loud and clear to me that gold investing ( long ) will be profitable in the near future, after all the Von Finck types have accumulated their desired postions.

Go Von Finck!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:05 - ID#34883)
for no particular reason
Benjamin Franklin:

"I grew convinced that truth, sincerity, and integrity in dealings between man and man were of the utmost
importance to the felicity of life; and I formed written resolutions, which still remain in my journal book to
practise them ever while I lived. Revelation had indeed no weight with me as such; but I entertained an
opinion that, though certain actions might not be bad because they were forbidden by it, or good because it
commanded them, yet probably these actions might be forbidden because they were bad for us, or
commanded because they were beneficial to us in their own nature, all the circumstances of things
considered." Autobiography ( ed. F. W. Pine, Henry Holt, New York, 1916 ) , p. 112.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:13 - ID#431200)
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

1881 - 1955

By Anodea Judith

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was a visionary French Jesuit, paleontologist, biologist, and philosopher, who spent the bulk of his life trying to integrate religious experience with natural science, most specifically Christian theology with theories of evolution. In this endeavor he became absolutely enthralled with the possibilities for humankind, which he saw as heading for an exciting convergence of systems, an "Omega point" where the coalescence of consciousness will lead us to a new state of peace and planetary unity. Long before ecology was fashionable, he saw this unity he saw as being based intrinsically upon the spirit of the Earth:

"The Age of Nations is past. The task before us now, if we would not perish, is to build the Earth."

Teilhard de Chardin passed away a full ten years before James Lovelock ever proposed the "Gaia Hypothesis" which suggests that the Earth is actually a living being, a collosal biological super-system. Yet Chardin's writings clearly reflect the sense of the Earth as having its own autonomous personality, and being the prime center and director of our future -- a strange attractor, if you will -- that will be the guiding force for the synthesis of humankind.

"The phrase 'Sense of the Earth' should be understood to mean the passionate concern for our common destiny which draws the thinking part of life ever further onward. The only truly natural and real human unity is the spirit of the Earth. . . .The sense of Earth is the irresistable pressure which will come at the right moment to unite them ( humankind ) in a common passion.

"We have reached a crossroads in human evolution where the only road which leads forward is towards a common passion. . . To continue to place our hopes in a social order achieved by external violence would simply amount to our giving up all hope of carrying the Spirit of the Earth to its limits."

To this end, he suggested that the Earth in its evolutionary unfolding, was growing a new organ of consciousness, called the noosphere. The noosphere is analogous on a planetary level to the evolution of the cerebral cortex in humans. The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network" -- an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback, and planetary communication. At the time of his writing, computers of any merit were the size of a city block, and the Internet was, if anything, an element of speculative science fiction. Yet this evolution is indeed coming to pass, and with a rapidity, that in Gaia time, is but a mere passage of seconds. In these precious moments, the planet is developing her cerebral cortex, and emerging into self-conscious awakening. We are indeed approaching the Omega point that Teilhard de Chardin was so excited about.

This convergence however, though it was predicted to occur through a global information network, was not a convergence of merely minds or bodies -- but of heart, a point that he made most fervently.

"It is not our heads or our bodies which we must bring together, but our hearts. . . . Humanity. . . is building its composite brain beneath our eyes. May it not be that tomorrow, through the logical and biological deepening of the movement drawing it together, it will find its heart, without which the ultimate wholeness of its power of unification can never be achieved?"

In his productive lifetime, Teilhard de Chardin wrote many books, which include the following:
















Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ( 1881-1955 ) was an paleontologist and Catholic priest who also served as a stretcher bearer in WWI. His single, integrated and evolutionary view of reality, together with his deep faith, have made him a "giant" in the eyes of PROVENZANO & SONS. He is the major influence and inspiration for our work.

This portrait of Teilhard was painted by Caroline Cowell ( 1993 ) of the British Teilhard Association, photographed by John Anderson, and scanned by Dan Provenzano.

There are many associations dedicated to exploring and spreading the ideas of Teilhard de Chardin. Addresses of three important ones are listed below. Please join PRO & SONS in encouraging them to get on the Internet.

On line now is the Teilhard de Chardin Study Group ( 11/12/96 )

The American Teilhard Association

c/o Iona Spirituality Institute

Iona College

715 North Avenue

New Rochelle, New York 10801

The British Teilhard Association

Plas Maelog


Ynys Mon LL58 8BH

United Kingdom

The French Teilhard Association

38, rue Geoffroy


75005 Paris

For anyone interested in a lexicon covering all of Teilhard's works, with short explanations, quotes and references, please write for information about the "Pierre Teilhard de Chardin --- Lexicon," by Sion Cowell. Mr. Cowell is the former president of th e European Teilhard de Chardin Centre and current Chairman of the British Teilhard Association. He can be reached at the above address.

By the way, Teilhard would have loved the Internet. In fact, "Teilhard saw the Net coming more than a half century before it arrived." -anonymous

The term "noogenesis" was coined by the Christian mystic, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin. It means the growth or development of consciousness--the coming into being of the "noosphere." Noosphere is defined as the sphere or stage of evolutionary development characterized by ( the emergence or dominance of ) consciousness, the mind, and interpersonal relationships.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:16 - ID#252286)
All this from one sentence

The following question, posed by F*Puetz, is akin to the alchemists dream of turning lead into gold. Not only is he an airhead when it comes to these markets, he now wants to go back to the 9th century and create magic with Merlyn. To this end, he writes of PGMs:

"What if tomorrow a new substitute is discovered that replaces the need for these metals?"

Firstly, is he suggesting that we add to the table of elements? Has he discovered a new and exotic atom? He is a wonder, is he not? We will call this particle, the F*lump particle.

Some questions come to mind:

Could you please give an overview of the catalytic properties of platinum and palladium, and then describe another substance that has these same or similar properties? What are the catalytic properties of PGMs? If these is a substitute, it would be nice to know what you want that substitute to do, would it not? Also, how much platinum or palladium goes into a car? What would the cost savings be if the laws were changed to do away with these catalytic converters? How may these laws be changed? Are there international treaties that would stand in the way of changing these laws? Could congress change these laws on their own? What he been the effect of the use of PGM catalysts on the quality of air of the last two decades?

Just a few questions - which you dodge like a bum dodges a bath - and you continue a deliberate misinformation campaign against some metals because you cannot answer the most basic questions of what you speak and are trying to cover your incredible ignorance with bombast and bluster. Since your theories are easily refuted by readily available facts, figures, and 2000 years of human history, each and every time you make one of your nonsense posts, you add weight to the great F*Puetz Lie that will follow you wherever you go.

Ask yourself what you have to gain by this. Then ask your self what you have to loose.

If you think about this question, you will see the win column holds a zero. What could you possibly gain from this? Bigger ego? Its too big for this earth to begin with. Now ask yourself what you have to loose, as a band of maniacal hell bent for revenge hackers cyber-stalks you where ever you go and exposes you for the fraud you are. I know people that like that sort of thing and would follow you wherever you go in cyberspace just to publish your collected list of lamebrained boners. These people do this because they think it is fun to do that sort of thing. Not at all what I would do, but I know folks who would. Just like you know the mob and Al Gore. I am surprised though, a man or your stature with no claims to be aquatinted with the rat bastard child molesting women hating murdering lying piece of crap president we currently have?

Think again about THE question. If you answer in other than, "I wish this to stop now", then you truly are a fool, and like your "on the knees" buddy Al Gore and his murdering boss, your ego is just too large to let you do anything but destroy yourself. I truly pity you, not just for who and what you are ( for I would not change places with that narrow rut mind for all the gold in the solar system ) but for the continued embarrassment you will suffer daily. The worst punishment of all would be to have to wake up as you everyday. If faced with that, I could not go on.

As children, we all had that experience when we reach for something hot and burned our fingers. We did not repeat that mistake too often before we decided not to touch those hot things.

Its called learning F*smear, try it. It has worked so well for the rest of us.

You are burning yourself with this simple minded campaign against PGMs.

I am very pleased however, and wish you to keep it up. I can blast you for days, based on what you have written in the last 24 hours. We will make sure that your new audience at golden eagle is aware if your boneheaded calls, plethora of ridiculous mistakes, and generally all around know-nothing when it comes to these markets.

My ISP is offering me a free website. How about the anti-Fspot sight? I could post this URL to everybody. I could e-mail it to the hundreds of Kitco readers who have posted their e-mail addresses ( I collect them ) I could cover the world with your blather. I would not do this. But I know people who would for a bag of Fritos and a six-pack of beer.

You think Im joking, keep it up. Since you are anonymous, and I have no idea who your really are, nothing would be considered slanderous or libelous as we would always stick to provable facts. Ask an attorney about this, I did. If you, however treated real people the same way, you could have a problem. If you denigrate a real person and the company they work for, both or either have the option of digging in those ever so deep pockets you must have to be such a major player and all How deep are those pockets? Even after the losses you took in gold the last two years, I suspect there may be something to be had in the bottom of those pockets. At the very least, the attorneys could relieve you of all that gold you bought when you didnt care and bought more.

This is easier than fish in a barrel. More like an arthritic insect under a microscope.

To finish, an except from Henry the Fifth by a better writer than me:

Bloody constraint; for if you hide the crown
Even in your hearts, there will he rake for it.
Therefore in fierce tempest is he coming,
In thunder and in earthquake, like a Jove,
That if requiring fail, he will compel;
And bids you, in the bowels of the Lord,
Deliver up the crown; and to take mercy
On the poor souls for whom this hungry war
Opens his vasty jaws; and on your head
Turning the widows tears, the orphans cries,
The dead mens blood, the privy maidens groans,
For husbands, fathers, and betrothed lovers,
That shall be swallowed in this controversy.
This is his claim, his threatning, and my message;

I did not write that, Shakespeare did. It just seemed somehow appropriate.

Kisses and hugs




(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:16 - ID#248180)
Donald - "Sir, Here & Present "A Must Read"

Wednesday September 9, 12:06 pm Eastern Time
Hedge fund shakeout hints deeper FX credit crunch
By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK, Sept 9 ( Reuters ) - A credit crunch is brewing in the volatile currency markets as U.S. banks cut trading lines to fund managers, forcing them out of leveraged investments and sapping more liquidity from the market, market experts said.

This could lead to unusually thin and unpredictable foreign exchange trade -- as many of these big hitters are reined in or banished from the market entirely -- just when conditions typically return to normal as summer vacations come to an end.

Growing ever more conservative as some of the savviest U.S. hedge funds post giant losses in turbulent world markets, U.S. commercial and investment banks are seen paring collateralized credit limits to speculators and even healthy financial firms.

``This could snowball into a bigger credit crunch problem,'' said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, a Connecticut consulting firm.

``I suspect some of the big asset managers are in trouble as well. I see credit being reduced to asset managers, hedge funds and probably mutual funds,'' he said, adding that the squeeze could extend to some interbank trading lines.

Some money managers have withstood and even profited from the violent debt and equity shakeouts in emerging economies in Asia, Russia and Latin America, and the subsequent fallout in Europe and on Wall Street. But many were far less lucky.

Banks are closely examining the credit leeway they grant risk-hungry speculators, especially after high-profile and well-respected funds like George Soros's Quantum Fund and Connecticut-based Long-Term Capital disclosed billions of dollars in losses this year.

``They're obviously paying a lot of attention to the losses that some of these major hedge funds have been taking,'' said Virginia Parker, president of Parker Global Strategies LLC, a trading manager and investment consultant.

``Many of the larger banks have been taking fairly significant losses in their own proprietary trading operations,'' she said. ``Consequently we have heard rumblings ... that there will be a retrenchment across the board which will further hurt liquidity.''

Long-Term Capital last week announced that almost half its net asset value had vaporized so far this year. The fund attributed losses to a variety of strategies involving bonds, stocks and derivatives in markets of industrial and developing economies, including Russia.

In the case of hedge funds and other investors who speculate with borrowed money, losses are amplified when margin calls force them to liquidate positions in declining markets to replenish collateral.

``For hedge funds, certainly we're looking at the arrangements that we have and making sure all the collateral is where it should be and, if anything, tightening up up on the collateral provisions,'' said an account manager at a large North American bank.

``If you're not leveraged, I don't think we're too worried about it,'' the banker said. ``You really have to know the kind of strategy your funds are in and are they following that strategy.''

In normal market conditions, qualified speculators are often allowed to make investments worth several multiples of the amount of money held in deposit. Gilmore predicts that that leverage will be cut back to twice collateral in many cases.

This could exacerbate swings in the dollar's exchange rate against other big currencies. The yen especially has surged, despite Japan's abysmal economic conditions, in no small part due to the growing liquidity shortage, analysts said.

Though Japan offers the world's lowest interest rates and struggles with a deep financial system crisis, the yen has strengthened nearly 12 percent since hitting an eight-year low a month ago.

Investors are using profits on bets against a Japanese recovery to cover losses on leveraged holdings across other markets.

``Where it seems to me and many people that it's the most irrational in a sense, where it differs from underlying fundamentals, is the continued selling of dollars versus the yen,'' said Stephen Jonathan, director of foreign exchange and emerging market currencies at Merrill Lynch and Co. Inc.

``Having said that, the deleveraging process is a powerful process and you don't want to stand in front of a freight train,'' Jonathan said.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:18 - ID#253246)
@a.j.*******that Bre-x might make you some $ on the class action suit
I understand that the other geologist Federhoff had his assets frozen
in the Caymen Islands, I wonder if he was smart enough to put any
of that money into the physical and hide it. Heck, he might have to
setttle for fat women if he didn't.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:23 - ID#347447)
Teilhard was a wonderful thinker, and, especially for historical Catholocism, a great speculative mind. Unfortunately the Theosophists got there long before him. The Earth, as we know it, is not an evolutionary factor, but a DEVOLUTIONARY factor. Teilhard would have done better to have focussed his wonderful intellect on the prime essential of his religion's doctrine: ie - the Fall from a higher world. "The FALL of Man, and the taking of the Earth with him. The kabbalists and the Gnostics were way ahead of him many centuries ago. He fell victim to the "science" of our time, and lost the magical power of ancient metaphysics. Close, but no cigar.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:27 - ID#252286)
Okay I admit it

F*spot is my father

Is everybody happy now?


(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:28 - ID#267276)
Do you actually have the physical paper shares or are they in a street name like mine? ( bre-x )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:28 - ID#287114)
Goldteck (Pierre Teilhard de Chardin)
Was not the works of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin a take-off of Rosicruscian?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:34 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Again, I recommend William Irwin Thompson. "The Time Falling Bodies take to Light" Mythology, sexuality and the origins of culture. Must be something about gold in there too Bart.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:37 - ID#412172)
Donald, JTF
You are amazing, all the news that is fit to post and metaphysics ALSO! Donald, I feel honored to read your posts, sir! JTF, Gollum, thanks for your posts tonight also.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:38 - ID#410194)
The bond markt is hovering around new all-time highs again.

Did you offer an alternative investment suggestion to the friends of yours that you begged not to put any money into the bond market which picked up a full 10 points since then, a fantastic profitable move. If you did offer some suggestions, which were they? Where else could they have gained so much between March 3rd and today?


Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

Gianni Dioro
(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:40 - ID#384350)
Dow slides on profit warnings
Financial Times says, "Disappointment on the lack of follow-through from Tuesday's record rise..."

Guppies come home to roost, Yes?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:43 - ID#45173)
In a recent television show in the UK, John Cleese explained three
reasons why the British are superior to Americans:

1. They speak English.

2. When they host a world championship they invite other countries.

3. Visitors to the head of state are only expected to go down on ONE knee.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:44 - ID#31867)
I give nothing...nothing...i GIVE NOTHING TO THE TRANS-NATIONAL PUPPETS... "We are free not because we claim freedom, but because we practice it." -- William Faulkner

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:45 - ID#270123)
Question #2 #3 #4
Can I take a poll? Where do you think gold will be at the end of the year? How about the end of '99?

And, if it's not too personal, what quantity of physical do you hold? Maybe you can tell as just the percentage of your assets?

Me...I'm building a $10,000 position and starting 1/3 in physical, any advice for a copperfoot?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:50 - ID#26793)
Never mind that. What I want to know is how much longer before I can get a good sized Hershey Bar for a nickel again?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:51 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC...oh, yes...I suggested..., silver, and cash.

You should get some.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:53 - ID#43349)
Thank you for your appreciation. The problem with metaphysics is that it must always miss the point. Perhaps, though, by missing the point from enough different directions and looking down, one can by seeing where the footsteps in the snow AREN'T begin to get an idea of where the point is.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:53 - ID#7568)

As a follow up to the recents posts about hedge funds and others suffering major losses in the current environment, let me add a few words.

The company that I work for is a quasi hedge fund in that we are primarily currency traders. Approximately 90% of the money that we manage is invested in a purely systematic, medium term, trend following system, that I developed more than seven years ago. Due to the success of the system we have attracted a fair amount of money to manage. We currently manage money for around 25 different institutional accounts.

In the past 2 weeks we have had two of these accounts close down for no apparent reason. Our performance to date this year, while not spectacular ( + ~16% ) is not something that would normally get people to think about leaving.

In both the aforementioned cases it turns out that the institutions ( one bank and one fund of funds ) who had given us money to run had suffered severe losses in other endeavors, thus forcing them to liquidate profitable positions in other areas, namely us.

The theme of deleveraging appears to be the dominant one in the current market environment.

On another topic, the amount of easing being built into the Eurodollar market is very large indeed. With the Euro's usually trading a few basis points above Fed funds, the market has now priced in better than 50 basis points of rate cut in the next few months.

The next FOMC meeting is at the end of this month. If the Fed does not ease at that meeting, or beforehand, I suspect it will be a horror show for equities, if Godzilla has not already consumed them.

In the FWIW dept. our currency system is still long JY, DM and BP in pretty good size against shorts in AD, CD, US, and SD ( singapore ) .

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:57 - ID#287114)

"Men fight for freedom; then they begin to accumulate laws to take it away from themselves."
Morning coffee is now with Scottish Glayva liqueur. The Island that is long is the last hold-out. Please reform.
Chug-a-lug and one gulp.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:57 - ID#255151)
Von Finck vs. Jeil

Interesting battle shaping up over Homestake. The insider's insider vs. a Kitcoite, whose charts have been uncannily accurate up to this point. Must admit, I have a vested, and invested interest in the outcome. Go NWO masters!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 20:58 - ID#45173)
Sheeple bleating in the stock market pen
The longer the market does not regain a sustained rise as many sheeple in the market believe it always does, the more restless they become. Each time the market rises they calm down a bit. Each time the market falls they begin to notice the fear in each other's eyes. They bump into each other more often and press the sides of the pen harder. A few more find the open gate and get out. An event happens that gets intense fear started. The sense of real danger gets communicated quickly among them. As greater numbers try to get though the gate they start to realize just how small that gate is. They panic and knock the pen down.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:00 - ID#43349)
Would you settle for a Himhe bar?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:00 - ID#227238)
Goodness! I have learned more, this evening, about a book I read 35 years ago, than I did at the time of original reading. ..... Wonder what will happen if I mention the Marquis de Sade? .... {:- ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:01 - ID#17077)
@RJujube... I think you misunderstand me....RE: PLATINUM/PALLADIUM
...I like Platinum and Palladium.

After all, I bought my wife a plat and diamond bracelet for Valentines Day. And I am thinking of getting her an I-MAC shortly that probably utilized palladium in its manufacture.

That makes me a buyer of Platinum, right? And a "maybe" indirect purchaser of palladium, right?

However, I just don't like Plat nor Palladium at these prices. I think they are rangebound, probably trending lower.

I would never pay more than 350 for plat in this global economic environment.

Of course, it's true there is now no known substitute for Platinum or Palladium. But years ago, for example, there was no known substitute for coal in running trains. THen look what happened!!

So, in this incredible Universe of ours, anything is possible, yes?



Bully Beef
(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:01 - ID#259282)
EJ...Britain? What part of Texas IS that?
Why, people from all over the world play in the world series. There is Canada and... and.... and Alaska and Hawaii...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:02 - ID#17077)
@RJujube... I think you misunderstand me....RE: PLATINUM/PALLADIUM
...I like Platinum and Palladium.

After all, I bought my wife a plat and diamond bracelet for Valentines Day. And I am thinking of getting her an I-MAC shortly that probably utilized palladium in its manufacture.

That makes me a buyer of Platinum, right? And a "maybe" indirect purchaser of palladium, right?

However, I just don't like Plat nor Palladium at these prices. I think they are rangebound, probably trending lower.

I would never pay more than 350 for plat in this global economic environment.

Of course, it's true there is now no known substitute for Platinum or Palladium. But years ago, for example, there was no known substitute for coal in running trains. THen look what happened!!

So, in this incredible Universe of ours, anything is possible, yes?



(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:02 - ID#412286)
JOHN DISNEY and others
This Baron Von Finck just keeps buying Homestake Mining, he is a very rich German and a member of the group of 300. Why would he keep buying this stock if he did not know gold was going to rise. Or is he old and has early Alzheimers onset. Anyone have the scoop.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:04 - ID#263254)
Andraschkov re: asthma
When you have exhausted your supply of albuterol, flo-vent or
whatever meds the doc has you on, you might find the following
to be life-saving.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:07 - ID#206298)
Does the lwering of the japanese interest rate mean they cannot lower it anymore and therefore is a signal of the end of the yens decline? And do you think MOF will intervene in the market soon, causing a sharp strengthening of the yen?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:10 - ID#273432)

If the a-b-c of wave 2 is over, that leaves just about time for subwaves 1 and 2 of larger wave 3 to form, before the 17th -18th date picked by Peter Eliades and Chris Carolan ( and probably others ) for the crash.

All this is speculation of course, but I'm sure glad I picked up the last of my LEAP put spread this morning... ( ;^ ) )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:11 - ID#26793)
Are those the kind with, you know, "almonds" ?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:12 - ID#43349)
What's kind of interesting is that if you look at a chart of a gold stocindex like the XAU over the last several months you see a fairly linear long downtrend. Look at most gold and silver stocks and you see a variation on that same downtrend.

Except Homestake.

Homestake starts out that way but then flattens and bends upward. Probably because of Von Finck's buying ( together with that of other parties who knew he was buying ) . If you take the trend as it starts out and extrapolate it like it most likely would have gone if Von Finck had not been buying it woukd be about five or six dollars lower than where it is now.

If you look at some of Jeils early charts for Homestake you see they would have been right on the money if Von Finck hadn't affected things.

His charts now, of course, have all of that factored in.

What happens when Von Finck stops supporting the price?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:13 - ID#190411)
Thanks for the site mentioned on your 20:44 . There are so many good links from there. G+P t'ya

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:14 - ID#43349)
I would have thought so, but it seems they continue to put Hershey on the wrapper for those too. Perhaps they should apply for a dual trade mark.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:14 - ID#31867)
skinny, Namaste' and a giant gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...No Sir...some
poet...or journalist one of jack's ass brood wrote that...William Jefferson Clinton is a liar...and he has committed treason...these stuffed shirts on television mean nothing...

Ya don't need some Constitution clinging maniacs to know and understand this...William Jefferson Clinton should and must be tried for treason but the weak suits in D.C. do not have the stomach...pissants one and all that go for this charade...

Wait for the body bags to mount...this scumbag William Jefferson Clinton is what creeps upon us when decent matter their sins...elect garbage like this dirtbag to lead...plain and simple...if this was a dog-team the other dogs would have eaten this bastard so that they might survive...uh huh...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:14 - ID#119358)
@muzac 101.........(please pardon)........
for your collective knowledge, there exists a gypsy guitar prodigy, Jimmy Rosenburg, who, at sixteen, is well capable of covering most of Django Reinhardt's most brilliant works. He accomplishes quite a lot additionally in his first Columbia release..."Sinti" ( his gypsy tribe ) and the trio's name. The world will hear a great deal more of Jimmy.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:15 - ID#17077) addendum re: PLATINUM...
Yes, I do like platinum. Just imagine...if plat goes to the kind of price levels you prognosticate, I could probably sell my wife's plat & diamond bracelet and buy a nice summer cottage.

So, what in the world makes you imagine I would ever want the price of Plat to fall? Let it rise to the Heavens! My wife and I could retire to that nice fantasy summer cottage of ours.

I just don't think Plat has much upside from here...not until '99 at the earliest...or much later.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:15 - ID#410194)
@Farfel Re: The bond market
Are you serious?

You recommended cash, Gold and Silver?

Both Gold and Silver have gone down substantially since the day that you begged your friends not to invest in the bond market. ( See earlier message ) Gold is $10 lower and Silver a full dollar!!! ( Silver never made it to the double-digits like you said it would. ( See yesterday's posts )

At about the same time, why didn't you recommend to put their money in what was an obvious and intense bull market still back then: stocks? Pretty much the only thing that beat the bond market!

As an example, if they would have put their money in the Dow and/or the S&Ps, ( since you talked them out of investing in the bond market that took off like crazy ) they would have gotten much richer along the way by managing their account properly. Look at what happened for the following 4 months right after what you called a bull trap. ( ? )

Can you explain what is a bull trap and what is supposed to happen when we notice one?


Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 18:08
All the "citizens" that bought in October bought back in today...

IBM insiders dumped stock in last half hour of trade.

Remember, IBM saved the market in the last October debacle...maybe not this time.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:15 - ID#255190)

Read your 17:43. Mark me down, OK? Thanks.

The engine is about to seize up. No oil. Lubrication drying up. This will accelerate and feed on itself, of course.

Currencies, derivatives, margins, bonds. This is where the big money lives and now dies.

If valuations are dependent on debt ( margin ) then what happens when margins are reduced?

In shock the body draws blood to the core to preserve vital functions.

Selling good position to pay for bad positions. Selling positions to have something to play when the markets fail?

IMHO the action in the next two days will only be very interesting to those who are NOT in the markets in any way. To all others it will be pure hell.

It is very important to consider the news you gather and share with us here as the most important intelligence of a great war in which we are all combatants. If we see ahead just a little bit and can extrapolate subsequent moves to be made we can then GET OUT OF THE LINE OF FIRE. And if that means pulling out everything we have into a coffee can in the back yard, then so be it.

Thanks for your tireless efforts. We are all very well served by your generosity.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:16 - ID#31867)
ERLE, Namaste' Gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...
May you live forever...and the last voice you that of a loved one...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:16 - ID#218222)
Silverbaron; Isn't the 14th the 55 days from the highs?
I would think that once wave 3 of 3 begins and unfolds as 5 waves down, it will happen very quickly and be breathtakingly devastating. It should happen in a couple of days only.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:18 - ID#432157)
To D A
Enjoy your posts ---please tell us more about HEDGE funds and how they are doing


(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:21 - ID#273432)

Only my personal opinion of course, but if the
market crashes soon and gold doesn't react in a
big way, I doubt whether there will be any
shortage of HM shares on the market after the
index funds are forced to liquidate. As I recall,
it is on BOTH the S&P 500 AND S&P 100 indices - so
almost every US index fund owns HM.

Gold usually spikes up just before a crisis, or
after the crisis is passed. Up to now, it may
have been artifically suppressed, but I doubt they
will be able to hold it down afterward for long.
Perhaps this is what our German investor friend is
betting on.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:24 - ID#190411)
You just mentioned LEAP.
I mentioned that I had bought a sp500 put 1000 Dec98 leap a while ago. I still have it.
The thing went down to less than 1/5 of what I paid for it. Now with the bearish sentiment, not to mention the sp500, it is looking rather healthier.
Kaplan had said that these would be a fine chance at the lottery, and I agreed, but didn't buy more.
Anyway, do you see any risk in holding them until late this year?
I had no business buying this derivative, as I still do not have a real understanding of what to do with the thing.
Do you see any risk of not being able to collect?
What if the writers go bust?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:25 - ID#255151)

I think if the Good Baron stops supporting HM, it will go right down the toilet! A Royal Flush, so to speak: )

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:25 - ID#273432)

You may be right about the 14th being 55 days from the top. I've seen that date mentioned, the 17th-18th as I noted before, and Prechter was predicting the 12th + or - 2 trading days.

Sometime next week, in any case....Kaboom.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:26 - ID#412172)
Donald, Gollum
Donald, you send me your address sometime and I will send you a GOOD SIZED Hershey bar, and it won't cost you a nickel! Hope you have a big mailbox, least I can do, but don't send me the chiropractor bill. Gollum, why do you think some Hershey bars have, er, almonds and some don't? In Himhe land we are an equal opportunity employer! And how am I supposed to see any footprints in the snow, it didn't snow here yet!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:28 - ID#342376)
Gotta love Kitco!
I appreciated the thoughts on Teilhard de Chardin. There is a wonderful book written by a physicist named Peter Russell. The name of it is "The White Hole in Time" it is now out of print but a new book will be released in October by him called "Will We Wake Up In Time". It will essentially be the same. He, in a very simplistic way, relates the properties of Light to the properties of consciousness. They are in fact, the same. He then looks at an "acceleration" of evolution that can be projected ahead to an "Omega" point, which he relates to approaching an "Event Horizon" or black hole. Another gentleman, Terence McKenna, who took all kinds of strange natural psycheldelics in South America, was told too look at one of the hexagrams of the I Ching to discover this pattern in the universe. Terence also found this "acceleration" and came up with a computer program to generate the "Omega" point. The computer program came up with December 21, 2012. This is the EXACT date of the end of the Mayan Calendar. It's the point of an ever accerelating changes that "leaps" us into a new stage of evolution. A "2001, A Space Odyssey" of sorts.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:30 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC....I advised my friends and relatives... go to gold, silver, and cash in recognition of the stocks and bonds bubbles we have had this past year. I did not suggest this action would maximize their profits.

Rather, I wanted them to sleep peacefully at night.

Unlike, those stock and bond investors today who are increasingly nervous as they witness the global economic contagion visit America's shores. I don't think they are sleeping very much lately.

Again, when bubbles burst, the average investors is ALWAYS the last one out.

Now do you understand, my McCarthyesque buddy?



(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:32 - ID#412172)
I am serious,
excuse me, I meant to say GOLDen Almonds!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:32 - ID#31867)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' across the Rainbow bridge...a mammoth gulp...puff and a hug
from me Mumm...truly the leaves will dance upon the stage lit by the evening of the Moon which will illuminate the sheen upon such an instrument meant for Angels but given to the hearts here on Earth...

Each and every one of us are be a shard of such...



(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:34 - ID#43349)
Footprints in the unfallen snow are best watched while listening to the sound of one hand clapping.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:35 - ID#273432)

I think that your 1000 LEAP puts will be in the money tomorrow. There is always the risk of these things wasting away by holding them too long, as the time premium decays the closer you get to expiry.

I bought my LEAP puts out-of-the-money in a spread at 900, 800 and 700 to maximize leverage. I'll probably sell half if the market drops big in September, and hold the others until the end of October. I expect there will be a strong rebound rally beginning in November, so I will be out of them by then.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:36 - ID#218222)
ALL; How did you guys like that latest poll on clinton?
Fitting isn't it. It's about damn time people stopped listening to the liberal spoon fed garbage the media ( can they even be called the media? ) feeds the masses. Did you ever ask yourself, Why they are so one sided?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38 - ID#226307)
Wave 4 up fooled me -- just as wave 2 up did. Both up-waves during
this crash have been shallow, but long-lasting.

Thus, wave 4 up lasted 1 trading-day beyond the eclipse, instead of
the more normal final-top a few days before the eclipse.

Nonetheless, the wave 5 down ( panic phase ) of the stock market
crash has now started. DJIA 3000 will be seen before the end of

Massive margin liquidation will be the trigger.


Steve Puetz

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38 - ID#218222)
darkwing post 20:01; It's over at aol.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:40 - ID#284255)
Mad mad sheeple

Resplice the url

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:43 - ID#45173)
Excellent book by Donald Christensen
"Surviving the Coming Mutual Fund Crisis" Norton 1995, identifies the securitization of mortgages and other debts, new derivative instruments, and the widespread acceptance of the stock and bond funds as a safe investment by people will low risk tolerance as a societal financial risk exposure that eclipses te 1920s. The boy in the mail room owned stocks in the 1920s. We think how sad that he fell for the stock market's promise of riches without risk and lost it. He owns stocks again, but through his company's 401K plan which he stupidly believes is "safe" because his employer offers it, even though his employer has no liability for the mail room boy's losses but does get a pension liability off its back.

Christensen makes a strong argument that the SEC went along in the early 1990s with the financial industry's requests to dismantle many financial industry reforms from the 30s because the government wants to limit the liability of insured deposits. If savings are kept in 401K and mutual fund accounts instead of savings acounts, then the government has a lower liability if the institutions holding the savings fail. The banks save money because their FDIC insurance premiums to the government go down too. Everyone is happy. Except the sheeple who are not aware that the risk have been shifted to them.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:44 - ID#43349)
Many years ago I read about a series of trend curves some guy plotted. In one he p;otted the speed that some human was able to go versus year. In cave man days a guy could go as fast as he could run or a log float down a river. Later he could go as fast as a horse could run. Later a car or train, then a plane, then a space vehicle. It was an exponential curve.

He did the same for rate of cultural revolution. The Egyptian empire laste for several thousand years, the Roman for a couple, Alexander's empire for maybe 800, and so forth. Another exponential curve.

He did some others too. The interesting thing is these curves were all asymptotic to a year somewhere around the year 2000.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:46 - ID#273432)

You could exercise the option and buy the futures contract, but don't worry about doing that. Just treat it like a stock for the next month or two and when the price is right for you, sell it. You can chart options on to see where it is going, as well as see the bid-ask spread.

As to the question of the option don't know who it is, and the buyer of your option won't either. That's the worry of whoever whoever ends up exercising the option, I would imagine.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:50 - ID#410194)
But what is a bull trap?

Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 18:08
All the "citizens" that bought in October bought back in today...

IBM insiders dumped stock in last half hour of trade.

Remember, IBM saved the market in the last October debacle...maybe not this time.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:50 - ID#280214)
Clinton's confessions in Florida - Hah!
He was smiling the whole time. Would you believe your kid's confession if he was smiling while he said he was sorry?

Impeachment is coming.
Time to lay in more cases of peaches in heavy syrup
and more toilet paper for when the sh!t hits the fan.
Sardines in mustard sauce too - for that fishy smell.
And lots of candles - for when the lights go out.
Got Zippos?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:50 - ID#300202)
u have courage in ur convictions & u post ur name also. Maintiens La


(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:52 - ID#396249)
I'am about to make an ASS of myself....I will also state that I have been bullish on gold for many
years.....Clinton will be gone sometime in September.....he will get the message from the men in the shadows....

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:53 - ID#280214)
How long do Hershey Bars keep?
They'd be great for barter. Even better than Silver coins!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:54 - ID#284255)
Must read
Moving to Zero - September 1998
How time flies when you're having fun...
We're in for the wildest ride of our lives.

Consider the following:

In Asia we have a financial crisis which has already had a negative impact on economies worldwide. China still pegs it's currency against the dollar, like a swimmer holding onto a pier against an undercurrent. If? When? they unpeg their currency the flu turns into a raging economic chill.

In Japan banks are unstable, they tremble every time the wind blows cherry blossoms across Mt. Fuji.

In Europe they're embarking on a great experiment. The move to a common currency. An event without precedent. Europe waits with bated breath to see how it all turns out.

In Russia we have had a meltdown which has rocked the Dow Bulls off their collective 'irrational exuberance.' That the entire economy of Russia is literally nothing when compared to the recent loses on the Japanese stock market is besides the point. The economic fall of Russia is another blow to investor confidence.

On top of this, we have the approach of the Year 2000. Not the computer problem... just the mystical quasi religious fervor concerning the coming third Millennium. This has finally, ( was there ever any doubt it would? ) sloshed over into Y2K discussions. I now daily get e-mail asking me if I don't think Y2K is God's retribution for our sins. ( For the record, I think it very unfair to blame God for our conscious coding compromises. )

Mix this all together, stir sternly with passion, spice with hidden agendas and you have the beginnings of a delightful witch's brew. You certainly have the makings of a recession by any definition you choose.

And then to crown the brew with that extra special touch, we have Y2K. Self inflicted problems in hardware and software and ubiquitous embedded systems.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 21:55 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC...just go ask your daddy...
...and he'll explain it all to you.

( tugs Realistic's ears, real cute-like )



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:00 - ID#410194)
@farfel re: investing
When you invest and when you make recommendations to your friends about where to put their money, are you looking at trying to gain some profits or do you rather construct your investment schemes by trying to have an influence on the sleeping habits of your friends.

Are you sure they are sleeping better? Even when they noticed the amazing bull market that they have missed in the bond market that took off a coupled of days after March 2nd?

Do you invest to make some money or to sleep?


Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:00 - ID#402148)
If your scenario plays out, will the flip side of that trade be a massive spike up in gold/gold stocks?



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:01 - ID#7568)

I'm not sure what to make of the rate cut in Japan. Last night I speculated that the Japanese wanted to reverse capital flows before embarking on a Yen printing spree. With all the jawboning coming out of Sakikabura, I did not think they had reached critical mass. It appears they thought differently.

Some of the speculation that has been bandied about as an explanation for the rate cut, goes towards ever more serious financial sector problems. The gist of the thinking is that the Japanese must know about some other problem within their system of enormous magnitude to which the rest of the world is not yet privy. The specifics of the problem are not germane, just that it is something big.

Along with this line of reasoning, has been a reassertion of the inevitability of a decline in the Yen. Leaving aside ( trying to anyway ) my bias, due to our current long Yen position, I am still not convinced of the outcome. The bear case for the Yen, at least as it relates to the US dollar, rests completely on capital flows, since the trade balance is still running at something like 50 billion dollars a year favor of Japan.

In an environment of massive worldwide deleveraging, one must ask where is the leverage that is going to get unwound. It certainly is not long Yen bonds, Yen stocks or Yen real estate. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is long US stocks, US bonds and other dollar assets.

Ex the rate cut in Japan the dollar is still a pretty good mirror of the Dow. The most bearish thing that I see for the dollar is that yesterday, when the Dow was up almost 400 points, the dollar did nothing. Today, with a 150 decline, there were strong losses against all the currencies except Yen, and even the Yen has rallied from a low of around 7330 basis Dec this morning to around 7475 last I checked the Globex.

As often happens in the currency markets, the expectation of a rate move can cause a currency to move until the move is validated. With the markets strongly expecting rate cuts by the Fed, the pressure may paradoxically remain on the US dollar until such time as the Fed acts.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:02 - ID#410194)
No come on now...

What is a bull trap?

Please tell us.


Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 18:08
All the "citizens" that bought in October bought back in today...

IBM insiders dumped stock in last half hour of trade.

Remember, IBM saved the market in the last October debacle...maybe not this time.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:02 - ID#412172)
So what is the going silver to chocolate ratio? Cocoa keeps for a long time if kept cool and dry, 18 months for the chocolate bar, stored at room temperature. I believe longer at 50 degrees/low humidity. I will try and get long term storage conditions, as I know we do that for testing purposes. Almond bars about 9 months, peanut bars only 6 months. The "nuts" reduce shelf life, attracting critters who leave footprints in the snow while flailing the air with one hand.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:06 - ID#43349)
We ARE the nuts.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:08 - ID#174103)
On the Yen
Just a thought, but wouldn't it be even more advantageous in terms of capital flows for Japan to both cut interest rates as well as sell US T-bills at the same time? The fall in the dollar wrt to the yen would help maintain yen in Japan. Otherwise a rate cut just leads to yen being converted to dollar reserves via the yen-dollar carry trade.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:09 - ID#342376)
Latest Martin Armstrong article on PEI
Notice he's doing a backpaddle on his prediction of another leg down in precious metals. When he talks about getting into tangibles, he says "gold isn't the only one".

"There was a sigh of relief yesterday when the markets rebounded sharply. Many began to tout what stock should be bought right away that the Fed is thinking about lower interest rates instead of keep its tight monetary policy. "It only a correction" hailed many as they emerged from the dark allies and basements to which they sought refuge. Others were quickly to proclaim that Japans 50% drop in interest rates from .5% to .25% marked the beginning of a concerted effort by several nations to respond to the crisis in the financial markets and now we should expect rate cuts from the US and Germany. Unfortunately, when we push aside the superficial analysis, hopes, dreams and sheer desperate expectations, the true may be far from the salutations and praise.

To begin with, the rate cut in Japan is EXTREMELY BEARISH and in NO way should this be construed as a bullish move for the marketplace worldwide. For some time now, Japan has been printing yen notes like there is no tomorrow. They have even been reported as lending this cash to the banks as 0% interest. The rate cut of 50% will have a severely NEGATIVE impact upon the whole economy in Japan with the sole exception of the banking industry. This rate cut has merely increased the credit crunch that is expanding in Japan as banks refuse to lend money to any small to medium size firm while tightening the reigns on major multinationals as well. This sudden and drastic 50% rate cut will have a major impact upon pension funds and corporates. We are now find a sharp increase in corporate bonds issues in Japan as companies fear that they could face a worsening credit crunch. In effect, this interest rate cut may in fact now seal the fate of a capital flight from Japan for next year and indeed may fulfill our long-term forecasts for the dollar/yen.

The policies in Japan are dangerously pushing the nation to the brink of massive deflation. We are becoming quite concerned that the losses within the Japanese banking system are massive and amount to at least 5 times or more than that of the US S&L Crisis. The general expression from our Japanese sources believes that the stimulus package will have whatever effect upon the market over the next few weeks. If there is no lift, as we suspect, the government may collapse and full general election called. Ultimately, we believe that the only course of action for Japan will be to monetise this entire problem. Our concern is that the longer this situation continues the greater overall damage to the non-banking sectors. Still, this interest rate cut reflects the stubbornness of the government, which still refuses to look at tax cuts. At this point, no amount of stimulus package will reverse the Japanese economy. The average Japanese is now frighten to see big banks and companies go down, which threaten' their traditional lifetime employment. This shocking social change in Japan, combined with persistent rumors of banks failures, means that no degree of stimulus package will have an effect upon the consumer until he feel confidence once again. Cutting the interest rate on what savings he now has will either cause the consumer to hoard his cash or export it to the United States.

The Russian crisis has still yet to show its full impact upon the world economy. Again, it is not trade that we should be concerned about but capital. The staggering losses taken by both banks and hedge funds has indeed cause havoc worldwide as both participants withdraw or sell off positions everywhere. We have seen the Nikkei rally on the bank of hedge fund covering of their shorts. We have seen the HK$ forward move sharply as liquidation orders came in from around the globe. We have see metals collapse as Russian sales have included anything that is not nailed down. We have seen Latin American markets under siege and even the precious ERM pushed on Finland and Greece. Talk is now staring to surface about the postponement of the Euro as the Italian lira dropped causing intervention.

The world is still NOT a very friendly place for capital these days. We have little doubt that the Euro will go through on January because this too is being orchestrated by politicians and not investors or economists. However, we do believe that the announced relationship between the currencies within the Euro will be revised by year-end perhaps on the last day. If this does NOT take place, kiss the Euro goodbye because the differentials between economies cannot possibly converge by January 1st, 1999. This will even take longer that the proposed transition of 4 years into 2002. The failure of the politicians in Europe to recognize the danger of diverting economies will only set the stage for the Euro to blow up in a similar manner as the fixed exchange rate mechanisms in South East Asia where pegs to the dollar failed. In the case of the Euro, it will be the peg of each currency to the Dmark that is now showing great stress.

It is of great concern that despite Allan Greenspans excellent grasp of history and respect for what took place during the Great Depression, we may not be able to avoid a repeat of history. However, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES are we expecting a Great Depression in the sense of a 90% decline in the equity markets. Those days were quite different insofar as the world operated on a gold standard. If you didnt have the gold, you defaulted. Today, we see that while the economic problems are similar to that of the Great Depression, the outcome is likely to be quite different involving a monetization as opposed to default. In other words, no major Western nation including Japan would announce to their public that they are defaulting on all welfare or social contracts. It is far more likely that they will attempt to monetise their way out and/or issue government bonds. While Greenspan has hinted that he would cut rates "if necessary" suggests that indeed the world is looking at the possibility of monetization.

For this reason, we remain skeptical that even though our Economic Confidence Model has turned down into 2002.85, there may come a point by the half-cycle interval of 2000.70 ( September 12th, 2000 ) that we actually see an intentional inflationary move that ultimately turning share back up! Immediately, many will say that we have totally lost it because stocks rise when inflation is low. In fact, the opposite is correct. Stocks rallied out of the 1932 low because people believed that Roosevelt would confiscate gold and devalue the dollar. That belief was correct. Roosevelt devalued the dollar by 69% in 1934 and stocks rallied into 1937. If you look at what has just happened in Malaysia, you see what stocks do when the currency is devalued. In this case, Malaysia has made its currency worthless in international circles. Under such conditions, has does one protect himself? The answer historically has been to purchase TANGIBLE assets. While some would like to argue that gold is the answer, this is simply NOT true! Yes, gold is ONE vehicle but NOT the only one! During the inflationary period of Germany, people sought to get rid of their currency for anything tangible as well as food. Thus, good shares have also acted as hedge against inflation because their assets rise in proportion to the devaluation of the currency. We also saw this take place in the UK following the pounds withdrawal from the ERM when the FT100 moved higher in direct proportion to the percentage decline in the currency.

While there is little doubt that a breach of last weeks low in Europe and US share markets will cause a second decline of 30-40% ( from major high ) , please refer to our daily reports for specific timing and price levels. The overall prospects remain pointing to a bear market moving into at least next year and possibly into 2000 before a change in trend materializes. We still see a further collapse in Russia and a major disruption in both Eastern Europe and Latin America before this event is over. We also see a Clinton resignation as inevitable along with a defeat of Kohl in Germany and a collapse in the Obuchi government in Japan. Those looking for someone to pull a rabbit out of the hat should not look to the Fed. While lowering interest rates by the Fed will help to reduce perhaps the magnitude of the overall decline  it will NOT reverse the trend back to new highs and prosperity for all!"

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:10 - ID#220183)
Aussie Gold "Stock of the Week"
Worth a look:

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:12 - ID#190411)
Thanks for the reply.

EJ -- At my company, we have had a "pension plan" for five years.
The first year, the co. paid 13.9% of gross wage to a SEP IRA. The past for has been at the maximum of 15%.
I have been careful to advise the employees that there is noone to look out for their interests, least of all the "financial manager" types that will push anything on them to make a comission.
I went into my rant about valuations and the coming currency debacle at the last time the SP500 was at 1113.
Only one dope would tell me what he was in to, but he couldn't. He hadn't the slightest idea. His "adviser was going to watch out for him".
He got out, but, I don't think he knows why.
The others are hopeless. I have given them complete control over their SEP, but they don't know enough to avoid being devastated.
I truly feel sorry for the people that have no control over their 401k plans. They might be able to do something on a quarterly basis, but not more than going into a money market.

I have to be careful about getting MURR'ed if I tell the employees about what is going on in the world around them.

Maybe I'll get sued because someone missed the big Tuesday move.

They are good employees, and fine people, what about the others?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:14 - ID#17077)

When you pester posters and cut and paste like your hero, RJujube, do you do it to make yourself appear superior in the eyes of others? Are you a member of a master race?

Are you looking at trying to gain some profits, influencing other Kitcoites, relatives, and friends to continue buying overpriced equities?

Are your friends and family sleeping better? Even after they heard Greenspan announce last Friday that America could NOT remain unaffected by the global economic contagion? Knowing full well that every time Greenspan expresses pessimism about the market, sooner or later the market goes through hell?

Do you copy and paste after every post which disagrees with your bonds/equities bullish position? Do you copy and paste after every Steve Puetz
post because, at one time you followed his advice, and got screwed? Who is your new guru, Abby J. Cohen? If the market should crash tomorrow, will you find her E-Mail address and copy and paste her to death just
like you are doing with all your current perceived antagonists?

Do you Thank God every day there are not so many bored people as yourself who have the time to look up your own historical posts and point out your own failures of analysis and observaton?

Have you ever thought of getting a life? If you do so, will you also get one for your buddy RJujube?



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:18 - ID#206235)
Russkies lied to get IMF 20 Billion
Now I know this will come as a total shock to Kitcoites, but good old Cheromoydin ( or however you spell it ) stated in an interview that Russia lied about virtually everything to get the IMF agreement to fork over the 20 billion.

He also said this is the only way they could get the bucks so it was the right thing to do. He also said that Yeltsin making statements that the Ruble would not be devalued, a week before it was devalued, was ALSO the right thing to do.

Hmmmm, maybe Clinton and post Socialist states have much in common... I hear they're looking for a Yeltsin replacement over there........Hmmmmmm


EZ Believer
(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:21 - ID#173262)
Bufford......Must admit, have been a little exuberent about SSRIF latley
Hope it isn't "irrational exuberence"...Ha...Ha...

I do get a kick out of your posts though.
When you take a hit it sure sours your outlook
doesn't it? Like I have said before, many PM
equity investors have been so burned that what
little holdings they have left they will sell at break
even. Then the momentum and chart freaks will
appear from nowhere and reap the profits. Too bad
because at these beat-up prices many good
companies are selling at a fraction of their true value.
If it weren't for the worldwide "paper Blizzard" and
other manipulative factors PM's would have already
taken off. Wait untill the derivatives market comes
unglued and a few gold loans default!

This is why the companies I buy must have enough
cash to hold on for an extended period of time. No-
one knows how long this super bear will last. They
must be able to hang on.

SSRIf is in a good cash position with no debt. However,
today they closed on a deal in Argentina and looks like they
committed about $4.0 million. Looks decent on paper considering
Barrick is involved, but time will tell.

Even though they have just committed a large chunk of
change for more concessions SSRIF is not about production. It is about
RESERVES! When the market turns there
will be plenty of competition between seniors for
who will develop proven properties. Investors who
accumulate low priced comanies with excellent
reserves will be rewarded in a big way at some point.
But the companies and investors must be able
to hold on.

Unfortunatley, by the sound of your last statement, you don't
own TVX. Too bad. I agreed with your brief reminder a little
while back in your exchange with Polarbear and it was trading
at 1 1/8. Tried to get cheap with a limit order and missed it.
Been watching it rise steadily ever since to 1 3/4 today. I'm
not about to chase anything in this market. If it pulls back I'll
own some.

This still doesn't change your problem with your average cost of
SSRIF. Under a dollar, and certainly in the .70's you could double
your position for under $5,000. Since you have already invested over
$22,000 in one stock this shouldn't be unreasonable.
Then you can cost recover at under $2.50. Look at the last
three year price chart. Believe me, $2.50 is not unreasonable.
Many newcomers will be looking at the same numbers and
think they are getting a steal at $3 or $4 dollars.

Best of luck,


(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:22 - ID#284255)
Why Saddam is afraid of nosy UN inspectors

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:23 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC...answer to your question...
...bulltrap...the opposite of a beartrap...

...often used correctly when I'm not typing too fast.

( yuk, yuk )



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:24 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC...aren't you happy?
...Puetz does not take the time to answer your juvenile questions...but every now and then, I do!

Hey, it's a great life.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:24 - ID#206235)
@ Spud Master.... Russkies hoarding dollars
Speaking of Russkies....Spud I must correct you on your earlier afternoon post. You stated that I have no idea what's really happening over in Russia re the common man hoarding U.S. dollars as their "Store of value"...except what I read in the media, which would all be made up of course.

Actually, there have indeed been several ACCURATE media stories about Russkie keeping their savings in dollars hidden at home, hoarding dollars, insisteing on being paid in dollars, etc etc...however, I also have direct confirmation that this is so. You see, I work with several people who travel to Russia frequently and work with a number of Russians. This is because we frequently launch satellites from Baikinor.
( We launched 12 Globalstar satellites today on a Zenit from Russia in fact, the folks working with us over there love us cause they get paid in U.S. dollars ) .

The folks who know firsthand, been there, done that, have verified that the media reports are correct. The U.S. dollar is "King" in Russia. Virtually no one is hoarding Gold however, sorry to disappoint, but facts is facts.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:26 - ID#17077)
@REALISTIC...and speaking of "a life..."
...I do have one!

Enjoy yourself with the old cut and pastes, my friend.

Signing off.



(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:26 - ID#257136)
Dig deep:
Thanks for waking me up!
Gonna call my broker ( a west coast natural resources specialist whom I will not name here ) and tell him to send the certs posthaste.

Been so long my memory went away with the pain as the wound healed.

We'll see how it comes out.
If nada mas, I have a pretty good tax write off.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:27 - ID#348286)
@S. KAPLAN: " I have reduced my official Dow bottom target from 2000 to 1500"
DJ VU ALL OVER AGAIN--In the 1929-1932 stock market collapse, one of the primary reasons for the extended plunge was that investors bought shares on only 10% or 20% margin, so that a moderate decline wiped out their entire investment, and triggered a chain of margin calls that continued to depress the market until stocks were trading at nearly a 60% discount to historic mean value ( equivalent to about 1200 for today's Dow Jones Industrial Average ) . In 1998 investors are required to put up 50% margin, and most open-end mutual fund participants have bought their shares with 100% cash. However, this requirement only applies to individuals; hedge funds, brokerage houses, banks, and other professional traders are still able to buy shares on 10% margin or even less, depending upon the risk tolerance of their clearing houses. Since such a large percentage of the money managed today fits into this category, the triggering of margin calls is already causing a similar effect. The fact that the stock market could not rally on Wednesday after an impressive up day on Tuesday underscores the fact that many hedge funds and brokerage trading departments are teetering close to amassing serious red ink, or outright bankruptcy, and must use every rally in the market to sell in the hope of salvaging their business. This is analogous to a large crowd of people trying to exit a room where there is only one door and the smoke is spreading rapidly. The number of respected brokerages which are suffering enormous trading losses is growing daily, and this only reflects those which are honest enough to admit their red ink. It is virtually certain that several respected names on the Street are not going to survive the bear market. As these brokerages go belly up, whoever assumes their remaining assets will be forced to liquidate them, further depressing the market, as most mutual funds are fully invested and in a period of net redemptions cannot afford to purchase shares even if their fund managers believe they represent good value. At a critical point the average investor will have a net loss on his or her stock holdings, which historically is the point at which individuals will exit the market en masse, as in 1931 and 1974. Although I had thought that this would take nearly a decade, I have since revised my time projection by half. A long-term double bottom is historically the most likely scenario. Because of the cascading sell order pressure, I have reduced my official Dow bottom target from 2000 to 1500. The greatest point drop should occur in 1999 and early 2000 as stocks initially regress to the mean for a resting period and probably an election-year bounce in the second half of the year 2000 before resuming their decline. The largest percentage loss is most likely to happen as the bottom is approached in a final selling climax as the Dow goes from 3000 to 1500 ( or less ) . Look for the Dow to first hit 3000 in the year 2000. Of course, there will be sharp short-term rallies now and then, such as when interest rates are lowered or pessimism becomes temporarily extreme ( the strongest short-term rallies in U.S. history were during the darkest Depression days ) , but the cascade of sell orders heavily hitting these upward moves will prove decisive.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities fell moderately on Thursday as U.S. Treasuries rallied, while precious metals were mixed. Gold dropped $1.80, silver rose 3.7 cents, platinum declined $1.50, and palladium rallied $3.25. The dollar closed lower against most major currencies except for the Japanese yen, which weakened on a one-quarter percent rate cut by the Bank of Japan. The Japanese lending rate is now only 0.25% ( ! ) . Expect the yen to resume its rise ( it already recovered one-third of its losses by the end of the day ) , as brokerages and hedge funds suffering margin calls on their stocks have no choice but to liquidate their non-stock holdings. These positions are almost always short yen and short gold, so they will have to buy both.

*** Steve is a true friend of Gold ***

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:27 - ID#190411)
Junk Silver
90% Premium on RJ's site has incresed to 11.63% from 10.0% last week.
It wasn't so long ago that it was at par, and below.
Y2K'ers and millenialists are buying.
What's the premium on half-dollars and dollars?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:34 - ID#219363)
I've been buying options against specific stocks and have had success with that. My strategy has been very simple - when the market goes up ( +380 points for example ) , I purchase out-of-the-money puts. When it goes down really hard, I sell into the velocity of the fall. I've noticed that these things have a lot more value while the market is falling because apparently other people want to get in on the action, but they lose a lot of their value once you hit the bottom and there starts to be a hint of a rally - obviously, because liquidity drops off for the option, the other traders don't want to buy it if it isn't going to make anything. As, I believe Silverbaron said, you have to trade them like stocks - everyone wants it when it's going up, nobody wants it when it's going down. As they say - buy fear, sell greed. In this care, the fear is in the eyes of options traders who see their "profits" getting eaten up by a rising market, and greed is when the market is falling fast and speculators will pay anything to get in on the action. If you use your intuition and buy/sell fairly well, the profits are nice in this volatility. Every dollar I've bet has made me six in the past four weeks - but you don't have the luxury of being wrong. They may be used as a hedge, but they can't be called an investment - it's gambling pure and simple. You have to get out of them while the velocity is there, you can't get greedy, and you have to be willing to lose the money you're playing with. Stock market version of skydiving ( a sport I dearly love ) .


(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:36 - ID#348286)
@The CROOK Elect: "There are approx. 30 separate impeachable offenses outlined in the Starr report"
By Matt Drudge
Wed Sep 09 1998 20:46:56 ET
x x x x x


There are approximately 30 separate impeachable offenses outlined in the Starr report that was submitted to Congress on Wednesday, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

Several sources close to the case describe the 'overloading' of evidence that was included in the report.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:39 - ID#348286)
Could someone ask Abby CoHen, has the stock market already "discounted" the impeachment the the CROOK Elect ?

Steve in TO
(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:39 - ID#287337)
Crisis in Japan: The Deflationary Spiral
I apologise for the large post, but it was a hard one to include the URL for, and I think it is one of the most ominous reports I've seen yet. This is important- Japan is drawing closer and closer to the brink.

19 Largest Banks Have Negative Capital

TOKYO - The head of the government economic agency said Tuesday Japan
could tumble into a dangerous deflationary spiral, as banking experts here
warned that Japan's huge financial problems could rapidly deteriorate if
government inaction continued.

''The banking system is quickly worsening,'' said Naoko Nemoto, a banking
analyst at Standard & Poor's.

Yushiro Ikuyo, a banking analyst with Commerz Securities, said, ''Bad loans
are increasing because of the domestic economy.'' Japan's weakening economy
means more companies are unable to repay loans, thus depriving banks of the
money they need to make new loans.

Taichi Sakaiya, head of Japan's Economic Planning Agency, highlighted the
serious deterioration of the economy. He said that although Japan's economy
was not in a deflationary spiral, it was ''at the entrance of one.''

Mr. Sakaiya's remarks followed the release of the agency's monthly report on
the economy, which called the current situation ''very severe.'' Mr. Sakaiya
said Japan must be vigilant ''so that we will not be sucked into a deflationary
spiral,'' Reuters said. ''We must not make a mistake,'' he said. ''We are in a
dangerous situation.''

A deflationary spiral is a Depression-like situation, where falling demand
causes prices and sales to drop, which causes profits to fall and inventories to
pile up. That leads companies to cut back on investments and employees, which
causes demand to fall further.

Mr. Saikaiya said he expected the economy to revive once the government's
plans for renewed spending and tax cuts were enacted. But experts fear that
the banking crisis could explode by then, unless the government accelerated
the disclosure of troubled loans, forced banks to dispose of those bad loans,
aggressively injected hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds into viable
banks, and closed insolvent ones.

Analysts said efforts by the governing Liberal Democratic Party to prop up
weak banks, the so-called soft-landing approach, would lessen the immediate
panic. But it will also delay resolving the problem, because it will not result in a
banking system that can generate its own profits, meaning more bailouts would
probably be needed.

''The risk of trying to engineer a soft landing is that the potential for a hard
landing, or in other words crash, is quite large,'' Yukiko Ohara, a banking
analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, wrote in the Economist, a leading
Japanese business weekly magazine.

In the article, Mrs. Ohara calculated that on Aug. 28, Japan's 19 major banks
had more liabilities than assets. She estimated that the largest 19 banks would
be $7.6 billion in the hole, if banks were required to write off significant portions
of their bad loans. ''The amount of bad loans has expanded like a snowball
sliding down a slope,'' said Seiroku Kajiyama, a Liberal Democratic Party
politician and banking-reform advocate who ran against Keizo Obuchi this
summer for the post of prime minister. In an article for the October edition of
''Bungei Shunju'' magazine, Mr. Kajiyama wrote that the $229 billion in rescue
funds approved by the government last winter was sufficient then to deal with
the banking problem. ''But since the government has not thoroughly dealt with
the bad-loan problem, Japan is now at a critical stage,'' where even $382 billion
might not be enough, he said, according to Reuters.

Mr. Kajiyama criticized the Liberal Democratic Party for preparing to inject
possibly billions of dollars into the ailing Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd.
without explaining whether this would solve its problems. The party's
''soft-landing'' approach has led it to try to force Sumitomo Trust & Banking
Co. to take over Long-Term Credit. Despite intense pressure from Mr. Obuchi,
Sumitomo Trust so far has balked at the plan, because the government wants it
to continue to lend to many of the shaky customers at Long-Term Credit Bank.

Analysts have said such a merger could weaken Sumitomo Trust. Nevertheless,
to try to change Sumitomo Trust's mind, the party plans to pour massive
amounts of public funds into Long-Term Credit. The opposition parties have
blocked this plan, up until now, saying they would not agree to a bailout until the
government disclosed the extent of Long-Term Credit's bad loans, which the
government has refused to do. The opposition has said the banking industry
must be consolidated and a few of the weakest banks should be allowed to fail.
But Kyodo news service reported Tuesday that the opposition parties might be
backing down on their disclosure demands.

Because the government has refused to reveal Long-Term Credit's financial
condition, there is widespread speculation that it is insolvent, something the
Liberal Party has denied. Banking experts speculate the party does not want to
admit Long-Term Credit's dire finances for political reasons. Last winter, the
government stipulated the bank was not insolvent when it gave Long-Term
Credit and other top banks a cash injection.

Another concern for policymakers is that bank failures can hurt profits in other
industries, which are already reeling from Japan's recession. That is because
under Japan's traditional business structure, Japanese corporations were
expected to buy the stocks of their main banks. In fact, about 25 percent of all
of Japanese bank shares are held by nonfinancial corporations in Japan,
according to Craig Chudler, a strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. So a bank
failure can wipe out a hefty portion of a corporation's assets.

Despite the focus on Long-Term Credit, analysts warn that Japan's banking
troubles are more widespread. ''I think there are other banks, more than a
couple, in a shape similar to Long-Term Credit Bank,'' said Mr. Ikuyo.

One bank with large amounts of problem loans, Sakura Bank, last week
announced it would seek an emergency infusion of $2.3 billion cash from Toyota
Motor Corp. and Mitsui Group. Sakura Bank has been the main bank of
Mitsui, which includes 80 core companies and about 2,000 other closely linked

James McGinnis, a banking analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, said the
corporate bailout might help the banking system, if Sakura Bank used the
opportunity to radically restructure to become profitable. But he said he saw no
indication that would happen. Other experts questioned whether companies
would have enough cash to bailout Sakura Bank, given their own falling profits.

International Herald Tribune, September 9, 1998

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:44 - ID#401183)
Mr. Puetz and ALL! Possibly Massive INFLATION??????
Just put my signature to two mortgages/mortgage notes today for two more rental properties, 10% down, fixed rate at 9%, 30 year term. Am I rightful in thinking, believing that I am on the road to repaying this debt with cheaper dollars as when the Euro dollar is launched, massive amounts of US$ will wash on shore to be absorbed by FED and Greenspan & Company causing hyperinflation to extreme measures, degrees. Your all thoughts on the matter would be greatly appreciated! I know ability to liquidate debt will be contingent on keeping the properties filled with responsible paying tenants. Thanks! HOOSIER.
P.S.: Took Delivery on 40 ounces of Gold American Eagles to hedge the debt.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:48 - ID#45173)
When this is all over, the villians will be not only the Wall Street robber barons but employers who played their employees into Wall Street's hands with matching contribution 401k plans.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:50 - ID#190411)
Thanks for the reply.
I gather that when Puetz's 3000 Dow in September shapes up, I should dump the put at about 3500.
I get it.............. Kidding.
Hey, thanks for giving your stream of conciousness posts on your trips to the Broker. And, I'll stay away from the stuff that I don't quite understand, yet.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:50 - ID#387243)
gold up $1.80, dollar weaker against most currencies

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:51 - ID#348286)

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:52 - ID#348286)
Yen up, Gold up, S&P down. Looks like the Clinton thing is gonna ambush the DOW come sunup.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:52 - ID#342376)
Most of Asia up tonight....
The pop in Asia maybe due to Japan's lowering of interest rates. Long term, it can't do much. But I've always felt that when Asia rises and US goes down, that will be the tide turning in a big way. A small thing to do for Japan, but the timing is interesting. The US is at such a crucial point in the markets. I don't understand why Japan would want to shoot itself in the foot by possibly tanking one of its main exporters, but I can't help but think they're up to something.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:54 - ID#334280)
Reagan should have been tried for treason for this paper mache mess of paper wealth everyone thinks they have... for that infamous tax cut combined with boondoggle defense spending...borrow,borrow,borrow ever since 1980.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:55 - ID#284255)
Rats jumping the ship???? beware
I had lunch with one of the DeeCee area superprogrammers today, ran into
him by chance at a local lunch dive. He was finishing up, spooning some
ice cream. I ordered a cilantro lime chicken sandwich and an ale, while
waiting for my order, we chatted.

Mr. superprogrammer works for a large NYSE listed corporation, you've
heard of them but lets keep their name confidential... -shsssh- No, no

I'd asked him about Y2K in the past so I didn't have to prompt him to
spill the beans.

He whispered that his MIS VP and CIO have announced their "retirement".
Then he detailed the schedule for the deathmarch, they are rebuilding
the corporate information system, it's currently *not* y2k compliant.
"If we only had an additional year and a half..." -sigh-

I didn't tell him that a couple weeks ago, I heard that the Chief
Scientist was also "retiring".

Hmmmm, the MIS VP, the CIO, and the Chief Scientist... all three are
suddenly retiring. They announce the death march schedule. ....and by
the way, we'll see you around, clowns. Haww haww haww, suckers!

A superprogrammer who has a decade of experience on the corporate
information system wants an extra year and a half... until summer 2001.
But this schedule can't slip.

Ooooo, this one hard, could there be a connection? They're making a
*clean* getaway. -brrrr- scary.

By the way, the press releases say that they're doing fine, almost Y2K
compliant now; trust us, we "get it".

Maybe Mr. superprogrammer will bail too, he could, he has CICS, S/370
assembler, JES2, C/C++, MQSeries, and lots more.

cory hamasaki 478 days, 11,477 hours. ...a clean get away.
I'll look for more details for the next WRP.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:55 - ID#287114)

The Lion always eats first.
Do not get too excited about some Socialist enterprises banding together with there Fancy Euro to take on the Greenback.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 22:55 - ID#284255)
Rats jumping the ship???? beware
I had lunch with one of the DeeCee area superprogrammers today, ran into
him by chance at a local lunch dive. He was finishing up, spooning some
ice cream. I ordered a cilantro lime chicken sandwich and an ale, while
waiting for my order, we chatted.

Mr. superprogrammer works for a large NYSE listed corporation, you've
heard of them but lets keep their name confidential... -shsssh- No, no

I'd asked him about Y2K in the past so I didn't have to prompt him to
spill the beans.

He whispered that his MIS VP and CIO have announced their "retirement".
Then he detailed the schedule for the deathmarch, they are rebuilding
the corporate information system, it's currently *not* y2k compliant.
"If we only had an additional year and a half..." -sigh-

I didn't tell him that a couple weeks ago, I heard that the Chief
Scientist was also "retiring".

Hmmmm, the MIS VP, the CIO, and the Chief Scientist... all three are
suddenly retiring. They announce the death march schedule. ....and by
the way, we'll see you around, clowns. Haww haww haww, suckers!

A superprogrammer who has a decade of experience on the corporate
information system wants an extra year and a half... until summer 2001.
But this schedule can't slip.

Ooooo, this one hard, could there be a connection? They're making a
*clean* getaway. -brrrr- scary.

By the way, the press releases say that they're doing fine, almost Y2K
compliant now; trust us, we "get it".

Maybe Mr. superprogrammer will bail too, he could, he has CICS, S/370
assembler, JES2, C/C++, MQSeries, and lots more.

cory hamasaki 478 days, 11,477 hours. ...a clean get away.
I'll look for more details for the next WRP.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:00 - ID#31867)
William Jefferson Clinton is a dirtbag...I live on the Island that is Long...
Kevan S. Khanamirian...Dear William: Fu_k you...yours are acts of treason plain and simple...plain and simple...the entire government is now suspect eh...scared of and your garbage...not!

And don't ever speak for the children in my family or the family of my friends PAL...

And...every woman I speak with thinks your wife is garbage also...

Hope you and her boil in your own crap...self made...your own damn soup...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:01 - ID#342376)
My last post...
About Asian Markets being up......As Anna Rossanna Danna would say....Nevermind

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:02 - ID#45173)
I guy told me today he just changed his 401k -- all of it -- over to a "Fixed Income Fund" because he thinks he's effectively just bought bonds and "bonds do well when the stock market drops." Yikes. I tried to explain the difference between buying bonds and buying into the bond market through a fund, and that there's nothing "fixed" about the "income" he can expect to see.

After the debacle, no employer will be allowed to offer any kind of investment vehicle to an employee without providing at least a minimal education in the investments provided.

Steve in TO
(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:03 - ID#287337)
Goldteck - there was another side to . . .
Telhard de Chardin. To get a glimpse of a somewhat darker side of de Chardin, you could take a look at a uniquee book by Catholic historian Malachi Martin. In the wake of the hype following the release of the film The Exorcist, Martin decided to step outside the confines of his usual highbrow publications, and wrote a book describing five real-life exorcisms by Catholic priests. They were tape recorded and extensively documented- this is the real thing. It was reprinted in 1992: "Hostage to the Devil : The Possession and Exorcism of Five Americans;" Harper: San Francisco; ISBN: 006065337X

- Steve

BTW- this is one of the most hair-raising books I've ever read. As another guy who read it recommends: "Do not read this book alone, or before bed time." Things that go bump in the night will bump a little louder after you've read this one!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:03 - ID#7568)

PEI must be very, very, short the Yen and so wedded to the idea that any and all market events will be construed as supporting their position. While a bearish case for the Yen can be made by the standard arguments of relative rates, the PEI thesis is odd to say the least.

PEI does recognize that capital flows are the only thing which can send the Yen tumbling so their bear case must revolve around them.

The point about Japanese savers seems way wide of the mark. Ask yourselves the following question. If you had money in the bank that was yielding 50 cents a year for every $100 dollars deposited, would a move to 25 cents a year send you scurrying to invest money in an offshore account denominated in some higher yielding currency? The answer must certainly be no. Anyone collecting 50 cents a year ( and the reality is actually lower than that since no one gets risk free returns at the Fed funds rate ) on 100 dollars already recognizes that the bank is merely acting as a depository, and not looking at it as a source of income. The difference between almost nothing and nothing is nothing. To think of this another way, how many of the US posters and lurkers here have money invested in a British Pound denominated savings account? I'll wager that the answer is a resounding 0. Last I looked short rates in Britain were some 200 basis points higher than here in the US. When the Brit's raised their short term rates a few months back ( by 25 basis points ) did anyone here notice or even care? No.

As for the idea that lowering rates somehow is going to cause a liquidity crisis is truly baffling. The flip side is that raising rates would somehow relieve the liquidity problem. Sure, maybe if the BOJ raised its overnight borrowing rate to 20% all the liquidity problems would disappear and the economy would start humming. Did someone say inhale?

Finally, on the thought that the BOJ is printing vast sums of Yen, this is just plain incorrect, unless of course the BOJ is lying about the M's in their monthly releases. Since from a confidence standpoint they would be better off exagerating money supply rather than understating it, it is highly unlikely that there are vast numbers of unaccounted for Yen being printed.

None of the preceding analysis says a whole lot about which way the Yen is going to go, but if it declines, it certainly won't be caused by these phantom effects.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:04 - ID#411112) be from the far left of center...yes?.....sounds just like WH spin team play book..

with all due respect

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:04 - ID#219363)
But I want to know what you REALLY think *grin, kidding*. Yeah, it's going to get ugly me'thinks. You know it's bad when congress guys stop playing politics and start taking something seriously.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:06 - ID#410194)
If a bull trap is the opposite of a bear trap, then why did you call the following a bull trap? Didn't the market shot upwards for many weeks to come?

It wasn't a trap then? Why did you say it was?


Date: Fri Mar 06 1998 18:08
All the "citizens" that bought in October bought back in today...

IBM insiders dumped stock in last half hour of trade.

Remember, IBM saved the market in the last October debacle...maybe not this time.

F*, the Unpronounceable.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:07 - ID#190411)
The employees for the most part, would not contribute, as they are younger, and will not grow old, needing retirement such as I.
They don't contribute, so I did it.
I know what you are saying, though. I hope that most wake up and feel the screws clamping down on them.
Many can't do a damned thing about it when tethered to the company 401k.
Those are the ones that I feel for.
I have had prospective employees reject employment because I refuse to run a 401k.
They cannot grasp the fact that they will have complete control over their accounts. Many want to be oblivious to their management of their futures.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:12 - ID#275194)
The Great 401K Bubble of 1998!!!!
When all is said and done this will be how historians will look back and characterize this mania. All bubbles in the past had some Rock Solid belief that would not, could not be shaken.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:16 - ID#411112)
ERLE...1/2 Dollars junk bags add $125.00 as for Morgan and Peace Dollars good luck...let me once


(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:16 - ID#410194)
You said last Sunday that a crash had started in New-Zealand and you also mentioned earlier today that the Dow will go down to 3000 before the end of September.

Last year and early this year, you also announced and confirmed several times that a crash had started and that the Dow will go down to as low as 2000!

Can you clarify what's happening? Why do you keep announcing something that doesn happen?

Thank you.

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 14:38
Puetz (> ) ID#170235:
The bear market in stocks has been confirmed. DJIA has decisively broken below 7500-7600 support. I'm am now in a maximum bearish position. Greatest crash of all time has started. It's very possible that the big circuit breaker at DJIA -350 will kick in soon. Watch what happens when the bulls get trapped into the market and can't get out.

Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 13:16
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
Mooney: Your strategy of selling S&P calls is a good one. It has a high probability of succeeeding. However, I'm still recommending S&P puts because of the high probability that a crash has started. The DJIA should sink to somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- soon.

Lurker 777
(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:20 - ID#320226)
We will see $290 Dec. Gold Tonight!
December Gold up $2.30 @ $289.70
S&P Down 8.80 @ 994.20
Dollar Index Down .95 @ 97.09

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:29 - ID#284255)
Global positioning and the power grid - must read

This article is very revealing.
Banks also using GPS time clocks.
Embedded trouble

New Check 2000 PC Deluxe Gives PC Users Control Over Their Year 2000 Issues

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:30 - ID#45173)
Oldie but goodie, G'Nite all
The Rules of Combat

1. If the enemy is in range, so are you.

2. Incoming fire has the right of way.

3. Don't look conspicuous: it draws fire.

4. The easy way is always mined.

5. Try to look unimportant, they may be low on ammo.

6. Professionals are predictable, it's the amateurs that are

7. The enemy invariably attacks on one of two occasions:
a. When you're ready for them.
b. When you're not ready for them.

8. Teamwork is essential; it gives the enemy someone else to
shoot at.

9. If you can't remember, the claymore is pointed at you.

9a. Claymores are labeled "This side toward enemy" for a reason.

10. If your attack is going well, you have walked into an ambush.

11. Don't draw fire, it irritates the people around you.

12. The only thing more accurate than incoming enemy fire is
incoming friendly fire.

13. When the pin is pulled, Mr. Grenade is *not* our friend.

14. If it's stupid but works, it isn't stupid.

15. When in doubt empty the magazine.

16. Never share a fox hole with anyone braver than you.

17. Anything you do can get you shot. Including doing nothing.

18. Make it too tough for the enemy to get in and you can't get

19. Mines are equal opportunity weapons.

20. A Purple Heart just proves that were you smart enough to
think of a plan, stupid enough to try it, and lucky enough
to survive.

21. Don't ever be the first, don't ever be the last and don't
ever volunteer to do anything.

22. The quartermaster has only two sizes: too large and too small.

23. Five second fuses only last three seconds.

24. It is generally inadvisable to eject directly over the area you
just bombed.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:30 - ID#348286)
@Gold up 2.40 / Oil up .21
I don't remember the last time we had a such a night rally......

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:30 - ID#254321)
Matt Drudge: 30 impeachable offenses in report to congress.
All: You should also read Ambrose-Evans Pritchard describing WJC as a borderline sociopath. He predicts that WJC will resign. I don't know, but I do know he has never had to deal with lack of popular support. It is amazing how fast the tide has turned.

Just wait until some of the audio tapes of Monica describing her experiences with WJC leak out. And -- the subpoenas will not end with the Monicagate report. Apparently all the other stuff KS unearthed is being held in the background, to be used as a threat -- the offenses are all currently only related to Monica and the coverup.

My guess is that these information leaks will continue with devastating effect until WJC only gets political support from Buddy -- his dog.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:33 - ID#37463)
Gold and Bill (prediction)
Its looks like we may have something to thank WJC for and that may be the resurrection of the gold market. Tonight's gold prices look sort of pregnant with possibilty. My prediction is that gold has found its lows and will not return to the $278/oz level and that Clinton will resign before the end of September. Heaven help us with two years of Gore boredom. We may be Gored by the gold bull market. Pick out a tree to hug now and avoid the rush.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:33 - ID#34191)
Hoosier: Inflation or Deflation????
Picture this; world goes into depression, people lose jobs, can't pay mortgages and flood the market with houses for sale CHEAP. Now, that could make your rental properties ( and mine ) more in demand because of a whole new batch of poor people looking for a cheap apartment. In the '80's we had double digit interest and all the ranches near us got devalued by the lenders by about half. This caused the rancher to no longer be eligible for the amount of money in his operating loan. The FmHA and Farm Credit Services foreclosed on people who had never been late on a payment!!! One of our properties purchased in 1977 for $70,000 went up to about $120,000 then down to about $75,000 and is back up to about $150,000 ( not counting the new house we put on it ) . You should be ready for severe swings in the value of property and know you have the means to make payments even if renters don't pay rent. You can bet that under martial law the government will forbid landlords from evicting people. Personally I plan to be ready with some cash to buy up some surrounding ranches if they start giving them away.

P. S. Your guess is probably as good as mine. I got no crystal ball. I'm just trying to keep all my eggs out of the same basket. We are already heavy on real estate, probably 75% of our assets.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:34 - ID#219363)
Oh wow. One of my friends had an old army ranger book, and that was somewhere inside of it ( I'm a young chap and never had the priviledge of having one of my very own ) . I rolled on the floor laughing when I first read that, hysterical.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:34 - ID#190411)
You know, Aurator, is a sort of multiculturalist. He often has refererences to the Maori system, and just about anything other than the western concept of law and justice.
Maybe we should concede to him this one time, and adopt a custom of the peoples that we westernised chauvinists wouldn't ordinarily consider.
Forget the wrenching impeachment and trial in the Senate, and just throw the two of them, bound together, into a volcano.
Especially one that has goldiferous precipitation.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:37 - ID#287312)
kapex: And to think, it's the primary job of Government to protect the people
I think they invented the 401K didn't they ?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:41 - ID#275194)
suspicious; Yeah I think your right, but I want to know who is going to protect
our daughters from the Government!

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:41 - ID#254321)
What if WJC resigns with nearly complete loss of political support?
All: Normally we would think the US markets would rebound with news such are this, when it eventually happens. But -- this may not be the case. First, AlGore would not survive very long before he is also caught in the suction. Secondly, the scandals will not end with WJC's resignation, as the landslide of public opinion against him would then unearth a whole assortment of illegal activity, including the mysterious murder of one of Monica's acquaintances at that Starbucks Coffee shop where she posted to someone in the WhiteHouse, as well as a variety of post-Mena associated mysterious deaths, any one of which would cast a pall over the USA.

But -- there is a way around the problem, if the shady powers that be that put him in office decide that WJC is no longer an asset. As they say, those who live by the sword, die by the sword.

Personally, I do not see how anyone would gain by letting the WJC fiasco fester, unless it was to polarize pro- and anti- government groups.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:44 - ID#31867)
Envy, Namaste' and a healthy and hearty gulp and puff to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmm
And those who lived before our dreams of themupon their shoulders and creased by the worn clavicles upon which wrested the uniforms of that which they sought to protectthe RepublicAmericathey harnessed and carried the weight...which allows our freedomHmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

William Jefferson Clinton is a liar...a traitor and for him to ask for forgiveness is the height of a traitor as his feet feel the platform removed from his feet and the rope drawn tight around his he sinks within the depth of his lies...and the miserable death which is deserved...his neck snaps...silence...silence...

One more gulp to

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:45 - ID#290172)
Nasty, Nasty, Nasty
Well-this presents an interesting problem.

They have "adjusted" the quotes-- that is, actually changed the quotes. Mr. Orwell, are you there?

The data is collected in modules that include the day of the week + the actual date. Had there not been a complete module, had there just been the actual quote, I should have thought myself mad.

But they have actually changed the figures. So something fairly awful is going down ( down being the operative word ) .

Should I work with the "new" modified data? The original data? Run comparison tracks? This is what actually happened: this is what they are going to tell you happened.

EB-Be careful! Please! This might be a nice time to play a couple of thousand rounds of golf
This is how the data is collected, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to post one day's data into another day's slot. Which is how we know they have changed the quotes and that I'm not entirely mad

On Friday, September 4, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 285.800 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.003499 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 285.300 / 285.800 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 279.900 / 280.400
Maximum price was 287.200 / 287.700
75% of the prices were above 284.600 / 285.100 and below 286.600 / 287.100 Computed from a sample of 848 prices on Friday, September 4, 1998

In MY data base there is the quote I picked up last Saturday/Sun which has different figures, across the board...for everything we're tracking.

Who would have thunk it...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:51 - ID#252391)
EZ Beliiever
Thanks for your discussion these last few days about SSRIF. Your intersting point that SSRIF is nopt about production but finding reserves. What do they do, enventurlly, sell those reserves to the development production company and get a royalty or something??

More more please....

Gold is reversing its down of yesterday as it trades overseas. I beginning to think we're about to see fireworks in Gold. I'm not so sure about silver and the PGM as I'm concerned about industrial production -do suppose they will all travel together.

Had hoped for one more good shake out in the metal mining stocks before the take off runnig down in conjunction with the stock market.

Actually the bearishness about the stock market on this board is alittle thick - other than Peutz's claim of 3000 DOW by the end of the month there are polenty others including myself with a bearsih view.

Hey, we are past the eclipse, now, if we don't move down from here we're not going to keep up with the stars' schedule.

On gold and the DOW strenght should be followed, now. I think in both cases the bearish story is too well told, and I'll hold to that unless we see weakness on the opening in NY that is sustained. My bet now is that the 800 poin decline in the S&P will be recovered by morning's opening..
Notice, however, that Asia's key markets - Japan and HK are unchanged to hiogher as of this writing. The Day Clinton resigns there will be the biggest rally on WALL Street in history.

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:52 - ID#190411)
The gold bugs are itchin' for a fight. Do you think that there are some shorts out there that will ignore EJ's rules?
On the vanishing chance that this is the showdown in progress tonight, I will greet the victors in the morning here.
Squillions for Nick@C , no mo' tribute for we.
Carry on Antipodeans.

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:54 - ID#261352)
To anyone .... is there enough liquidity to keep this market floating or is
everything just perception and manipulation nowadays?

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:54 - ID#401460)
IMF Funding

I thought it was a done deal - guess not.

Wednesday September 9, 10:38 pm Eastern Time

Key U.S. lawmaker casts doubt on funding for IMF

The White House says the IMF urgently needs $18 billion to replenish its reserves, drained by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Russia and three Asian states -- Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand. Without that money, the Clinton administration has warned Congress that the IMF would be ill-equipped to assemble new rescue packages if market turmoil intensified.

Citing the market turbulence, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has urged House Speaker Newt Gingrich and other House Republicans to quickly approve the $18 billion IMF funding package.

``We simply cannot afford any further delay,'' Rubin said in a letter to Gingrich.

``We ought not just simply continue throwing good money after bad through the IMF,'' Armey, a Texas Republican, added.

``But in some instances, and particularly in the case of Russia, we have outright duplicity ... I'm very concerned that taxpayers' dollars are simply being mindlessly wasted by the IMF, and we need to make sure that doesn't happen any more,'' said Livingston.


(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:57 - ID#31867)
ERLE, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and another raised in a toast to a good life to
you and yours...I would not soil Aurator...nor the tradition of the great Maori...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I am not sure how Aurator nor the Maori might discharge the duties of the ages...

I remain open to suggestions...

(Wed Sep 09 1998 23:59 - ID#287312)
Asia is turning very red now folks
Good nite, bears rise early. DerArkanfuror is toast.