News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

News from the dog pound. Ihave been holding this stock in anticipation of any news. Finally got some after the bell today. If you can get in early enough you might could make a few bucks on it. Symbol VGZ.
I willhold it a bit longer with the rest of my jrs. and see if my hunch pays off. Afer all its only money.

tricky: here is a link to online gun sales. This should give you an idea of pricing. http://www.gunsamerica.com/ Do you get the Shotgun news? If not, get it!

Goldilocks: Thanks

the almighty us$....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha15.gif

REALISTICally....
too bad the many great calls
never get re-posted....what a waste
of time to constantly ridicule ANYone....
and to what end? proof positive of superiority?
or inadequecies? i respect peutz for swinging
the bat of life for all to see....

cherokee!;.watching.the.$.freefall.as.predicted.HERE.months.ago....

I can't refresh, but I can post?
Bart, methinks your traffic has increased.

Cherokee - I wish I could grok more of what you say.

tnboll- in remembrance of Dora.

Thursday September 10, 10:10 pm Eastern Time

Brazil raises interest rates to plug dollar
outflows

SAO PAULO, Sept 10 ( Reuters ) - Brazil on Thursday raisedinterest rates to
nearly 50 percent in a bid to plug massive dollar outflows from its financial
markets, the Central Bank said.

The Central Bank hiked its basic assistance rate Tban to an annual 49.75
percent from 29.75 percent, a bank spokesperson told Reuters.

The move came after Brazil's foreign exchange markets saw a huge drain of dollars, estimated at over $2 billion, on
Thursday, after losing more than $8 billion in the first 10 days of September.

Stock prices also plummeted on Thursday as panicked investors, worried about the massive capital flight, pulled
out of the market.

The Sao Paulo stock exchange's key Bovespa share index plunged nearly 16 percent, its biggest one-day drop
since October 1987.

HighRise

jorlin....he grabs the truth by the throat....

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/


Americans Still, "Don't get
it!"
by William Cooper
 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved
CAJI News Service - Exclusive - September 9, 1998 - Friday the world's
financial markets were in ruins as the fallacies of "global interdependence"
caught up with the "utopian social engineers". Nothing changed over the
Labor Day weekend, in fact things got measurably worse. Alan Greenspan
said, "It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of
prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased
stress,"and that the Federal Open Market Committee would have to consider
carefully all the developments since the Fed's last policy meeting in August.
That is the strongest warning ever issued by Greenspan. On Tuesday, despite
all the foregoing, the New York Stock Exchange picked up the highest one day
gain in its history. American investors just don't get it, and because they don't
get it they are in for a fall the likes of which has never been seen in American
history.
How many investors know that Russia has repudiated its debt? How many
know that the west has loaned Russia over 200 billion. Half is owed to the US
government, International Monetary Fund, and other institutions. A lot is
owed to European and American banks. German banks hold the largest single
portion of this debt and face a loss of $53 billion. The Ruble has collapsed,
many Russian banks are now insolvent, and the Russian People have seen
their savings disappear. The Russian economy has disintegrated, Russia's
central bank halted trading of the ruble Tuesday, and there is still no
government. The Duma voted on Monday to reject Chernomyrdin for prime
minister for the second time in two weeks. If the Duma rejects Yeltsin's
designate one more time, the law will force Yeltsin to dissolve the Duma.
Several very credible factions have threatened imminent revolution if that
happens.
Tuesday Japan announced that its economy has slipped even closer to the
spectre of recession. Economic Planning Agency ( EPA ) Minister Taichi
Sakaiya said, "Japan is not in a deflationary spiral, but is near the entrance.
There is a danger of being sucked into one, and the main reason for that is the
international environment." The Yen has slid to its lowest since the 60's. The
Minister issued an EPA report which stated that its overall assessment is that
the economy is in a "prolonged slump." Sakaiya changed the wording to
describe conditions as "extremely severe" instead of "exceedingly severe."
Takashi Omori, national economic division director of the EPA's Research
Bureau said, "We revised our assessment slightly downwards by changing the
expression to show an increase in severity." It is no secret in Tokyo that the
economy is in ruins and the worst is yet to come.
All Asia is teetering upon the verge of total economic disaster. The region
hinges upon Japan. There are riots and poverty in Indonesia. The Malaysian
government may collapse. Even the Peoples Republic of China has admitted
that its economy has been shaken. Several smaller Asian countries may fall to
revolution.
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Honduras, Guatamala, and many more Latin
American exchanges and currencies have collapsed. The Mexican Peso has
become almost worthless. We can expect a new, and much larger wave of
desperate illegal immigrants to surge across our southern border and you can
bet the socialist Democratic administration will do little or nothing to stop
them.
The United States is embroiled in a political crisis. The President has been
exposed as an immoral chronic liar who preys upon women. His
administration is ridden with corruption and several of its top executives are
under indictment or in prison. Drugs have been used in the White House.
More and more bimbos are popping up from all sides. And on top of all his
other problems Bill Clinton has sealed his fate. He will not long remain in
office bringing to pass another of my predictions.
Clinton has done the unthinkable... he has breached the code of silence,
admitted that he has no power. He has confirmed what I have been telling you
for years; that there is a secret and terrifying power behind the throne.
Bill Clinton stated on September 4, 1998, "You know, by the time you become
the leader of a country, someone else makes all the decisions... You may find
you can get away with virtual presidents, virtual prime ministers, virtual
everything." President William Jefferson Clinton is now an extreme liability.
This President will resign, or he will be sacrificed... impeached, imprisoned, or
assassinated. The choice is his.
Nothing will or can stop the total collapse of the entire world's economy over
the next several months, maybe years. The Marxists have prepared this event
well. It will happen. A major shock to the U.S. markets will occur within the
next several weeks... watch out for October 24th, the day which marks the
greatest Marxist/Leninist victory in the history of the movement. A house
built upon sand, of paper, with no supporting framework, no beams, no
heroes, and sitting in the path of a great wind must, and will come tumbling
down.
For more news go to: Directory of Press Releases

**********************************************************


Bart your site is all screwed up again, takes 10 mins to post or load site and there appears to be very few posts.

Time 12:48

HighRise

The market will crash on September 14th. I've done some research and have discovered disturbing evidence for the catastrophe. It all starts back in 1899 with a chap by the name of Henry Bliss. He was visiting New York City and was killed by a cabbie going 18mph, the first person ever to die in an automobile accident. Exactly six years later to the day, the R.A.C. Tourist Trophy was first run on the Isle of Man, the earliest auto race still being run today - numerous people have been killed in the race over the past century. Do you see it ? 66 years after Henry Bliss died, the television comedy "My Mother The Car" made it's debute on NBC. True, it was the worst show to ever hit television, but the important thing is that the theme of the show was that a mother was reincarnated as a 1928 Porter. Then in 1980 on the very same day, Weird Al Yankovic recorded "Another One Rides The Bus". Weird Al, he looks like Howard Stern. Stern is in New York City, see how it's all coming together ? The restless spirit of Henry Bliss is roaming the earth, causing carnage and mayhem on the day of his death. You don't believe ? He's taken lives in auto races started on the day of his death, tried to communicate his anguish to us through television, and even taken to talking dirty on the radio, trying to warn us of his intentions. Well, I have heard his call, and I am bringing it all into focus for you all. The spirit of Henry Bliss plans to crash this stock market on the day of his death, exactly 99 years later. The bus used in the "Another One Rides The Bus" video is a GM product, as were the vehicles that killed Henry Bliss and the 1928 Porter used in the television show. Oh wait, the Porter wasn't GM, nevermind that. I've checked the high on General Motor's stock, and it was at 76 11/16ths earlier this year. If you take 76 and multiply it by 11 and 16 you get 13,376 then subtract 1998 from that and you get 11,378 which is, hmmm, wait a minute. Nevermind, the market might not be crashing on Monday, I need to study this some more. Maybe the number of workers that were on strike at GM figures into it somehow. I'll get back to you guys, this is serious stuff.

Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
12:50AM
13956.09
-709.94
-4.84%

He sends out by FAX/e-mail a lot of economic and political info. However, his trading strategy is pretty wild, and based on a sell the DOW Index and pyramid the holdings as the market moves in your favor. Had he done this when the market was rising from last Oct to July, he might have made you a million. But with this wild bear ride down, with the volatility in the market, his trailing stops idea doesn't work very well if at all. I recently tried tracking his calls, and not only does he wait until after the move down has started, but most of the trades would have been stopped out. However, he has strong opinions, and sometimes the psychology of that might help someone make a decision. I think he is planning on the market moving down and simply urging you to sell into it. His comments are really that simplistic.
IMO, not worth the 5 grand. Good luck.

Forget the 44 mag, overkill. ( like that stainless though, toss it in the ocean, come back a year later, load it and fire. If one feels the need for the .44, S & W defines the .44.

I like the .356, also stainless, but Im an urban kind of guy and am partial to automatics.

Glocks and Sigs

Nines and Four Os

Precision firing, never a jam, reload in a blink, deadly at anything less than 50 meters.

And nobody doubts you mean business

Nope

Tell me more about VGZ. What do you know about this Jr. mining company that makes you believe it will go up from its 5/32 pricing? Thanks.

'see' if you can take the pebble grasshopper....

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=DBCC

ALLABOARD!!

Billy Bob Clinton should be punished for his actions. Unfortunately, he is being accused of the incorrect crime. His crime, as is the crime of 95% of elected officials and beaurecarts, is the imposition of slavery upon the majority of the U.S. population. The punishment should not be impeachment, rather it should be a hemp neclace.

Forget the good old USA. How about the counterparts in each of the nation states around the world.

In reality, we are mostly all passengers on the "Amistat".


The only difference is our chain are invisible. Delusion is really a teriffic tool for those who choose to live as masters, for the masses are easily deluded. The chains of slavery are imbodied in the various structures like fiat currency and the myriad other monopolies, which prevent you from exchanging the sweat of your brow for an equal amount of sweat of someone elses brow. Instead, government, the mavolent, see to it that the average man gives up by at least by tenfold, what you receive.

I hope Clinton suffers, not because he likes sex, not because he is a sociopath, but because he is a slaver. I only hope at the age of 54 that I can shmehow live long enough to see a significant uprising. Unfortunately, I doubt that I will be in any physical shape to participate by the time enough suffering provokes such an event.

SPECIAL INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Thursday, September 10, 1998
First, it's all due to Asia... then it's all Russia's fault... and now Wall
Street's woes are blamed on the White House. If only it were that simple!
Today's action again challenged the critical 7500 support zone before
rallying to close off the lows of the day with "only" a 250pt decline.
Secondary averages though, were not off as much as the DJIA. Breadth and
leadership were abysmal. Gold stocks soared back above last Friday's highs.
Baring a renewed meltdown in emerging markets, the bottom in gold appears to
be in place.
We're still in that critical time and price period where a crash is highly
possible on Wall Street... 55 days after the market peak and down about 18%
on the DJIA. Both 1929 and 1987 saw their crashes between 50 and 60 days
following the market top, and after the DJIA was down 13-17%. IF tomorrow
closes down big to decidedly break 7500, then we could be in for another
"black" Monday. Yet in after-hours trading right now, the stock index
futures are trading higher.
Regardless of the near-term scenario, a bear market remains in firm control.

On the face of it, the decision of the Bank of Japan to increase liquidity and lower interest rates to ridiculously low values seems inane as an attempt to stimulate their economy.

Perhaps we should consider it in a different light. Perhaps they are attempting to protect their investment while struggling with their most immediate problem which is the fragility of the banking system.

They are one of the biggest creditor nations. Hold that in mind.

The US policy of the strong dollar together with a weak yen gave speculators what seemed like a free lunch. With low Japanese domestic interest rates and high US real interest rates much demand was generated for US Treasury securities with the added bonus of differential gains as the yen further weakend against the dollar.

Also, it seemed to provide a way for sickly Japanese financial institutions to slowly heal their balance sheets.

Thus the yen carry scheme was born. The result of this massive yen carry trade scheme was:

1 ) Interest rates in the US were held down by artificial demand from the scheme and now that the yen carry trade is falling out of fashion we can expect US interest rates to RISE once the Clinton crises begins to pass and flight money starts to exit treasuries ( unless of course the Fed acts to lower rates -- which will not affect long term rates so much as short term ones ) .

2 ) The enormous borrowing in yen to fund yen carry positions is essentially a huge yen short position that amounts to a short squeeze of colossal magnitude if speculators are forced to close out their leveraged positions, the dollar/yen would quickly collapse.

3 ) Japanese financial institutions, which recently purchased large amounts of U.S. Treasury securities in the belief that it would salvage their balance sheets, are instead likely to suffer big currency losses if the dollar/yen collapses, which will compound the banking solvency problems.

4 ) There is a built in margin call looming for the yen carry trade if Japanese interest rates rise, the dollar weakens or the US bond market declines. The closing out of the position would feed on itself. Selling US Treasuries would drive prices down, leading to more forced sales. Buying back short yen sold forward would strengthen the yen and thus cause further liquidation of yen-carry positions.

So we see that perhaps the Japanse feel they must support the weak yen and strong dollar at least long enough to unwind the banking solvency problem. They can not sell their Treasuries without initiating catastrophe so their only recourse is to lower interest rates and increase liquidity as well as ease restrictions on private individuals to move their savings toward the higher interest rate returns in the US.

Another market that has been warped by leveraged speculation is gold.

Anyone who had wanted to leverage up big by borrowing in a low-interest rate currency and investing in the 2-Year T-Note or something more exotic, only had a few choices. Yen, Swiss francs or gold.

Gold? Yes gold. After all, gold is a currency, one that is at someone else's liability. It is also a deep and liquid market that can be sold forward. Gold had a low implied interest rate ( about 2% now much less ) . Best of all it had European and Brazilian CB sales keeping a stifling lid on any rally. What better place to borrow money at 2% to buy 2-year T-notes yielding 6.3%?

Hedge funds have sold gold forward in huge amounts and invested the proceeds in Treasuries. The gold-carry trade.

Like with the yen-carry trade, leveraged funding in the gold market has created a gigantic short position.

Now these positions are starting to unwind and the Japanese desperately need time....

Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

My charts show today's gain broke through
a long term overhead resistence level! Go Gold!

It has great properties, good mgmt, good story, etc. etc.....
Just lacking one minor thing....WORKING CAPITAL. If POG increases to the point where they can raise capital @ a fair cost, they have great potential. Otherwise, they will have to do deals that will be bad for the financial health of the shareholders, IMO. I owned it @ 1.40 & sold most of my position @ 1.20 & finally bailed completely @ 3/4. Good luck.

Whenever the markets are busy, we all want to get on Kitco and talk about it. Some tend to think it is either Barts ISP or their own which is slow. I think it is the entire web. Millions are cramming sites all over the world, the entire web is slow. Kitco never goes down on a quiet day.

As a working experiment in regards of this theory:

Tomorrow, when the Starr report is released on the Internet

The web will grind to a halt.

This, on what is likely to be a big day in equities and metals

I will be surprised if anyone can get on anything tomorrow.

Sigh

look and wonder at what $100 + comm.
can buy....my, oh my.....eb where you be....


Gold Thu Sep 10 16:02:07 CDT 1998
1.00 dollars per point Contract Size is 100_troy_ounces Unit=10


Jun 2000 Underlying Futures Price = 3085 Expiration Date = ? ? ?

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
24000 7000 7000.00 0 | 24000 210 210.00 0
25000 5990 5990.00 0 | 25000 270 270.00 0
26000 5020 5020.00 0 | 26000 370 370.00 0
27000 4200 4200.00 0 | 27000 560 560.00 0
28000 3460 3460.00 0 | 28000 760 760.00 0
29000 2810 2810.00 0 | 29000 1110 1110.00 0
30000 2240 2240.00 0 | 30000 1410 1410.00 0
31000 1800 1800.00 0 | 31000 1880 1880.00 0
32000 1440 1440.00 0 | 32000 2460 2460.00 0
33000 1120 1120.00 0 | 33000 3100 3100.00 0
34000 880 880.00 0 | 34000 3810 3810.00 0
35000 650 650.00 0 | 35000 4550 4550.00 0
36000 490 490.00 0 | 36000 5380 5380.00 0
37000 350 350.00 0 | 37000 6200 6200.00 0
38000 250 250.00 1 | 38000 7170 7170.00 0


Oct 1998 Underlying Futures Price = 2914 Expiration Date = 980911

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
23000 6140 6140.00 0 | 23000 10 10.00 0
24000 5140 5140.00 0 | 24000 10 10.00 0
24500 4640 4640.00 0 | 24500 10 10.00 0
25000 4140 4140.00 0 | 25000 10 10.00 0
25500 3640 3640.00 0 | 25500 10 10.00 0
26000 3140 3140.00 0 | 26000 10 10.00 0
26500 2640 2640.00 0 | 26500 10 10.00 0
27000 2140 2140.00 0 | 27000 10 10.00 0
27500 1640 1640.00 0 | 27500 10 10.00 35
28000 1140 1140.00 1 | 28000 10 10.00 293
28500 670 670.00 36 | 28500 30 30.00 85
29000 250 250.00 253 | 29000 90 90.00 80
29500 70 70.00 388 | 29500 410 410.00 2
30000 20 20.00 225 | 30000 880 880.00 5
30500 10 10.00 1 | 30500 1360 1360.00 0
31000 10 10.00 1 | 31000 1860 1860.00 0
31500 10 10.00 0 | 31500 2360 2360.00 0
32000 10 10.00 0 | 32000 2860 2860.00 0
32500 10 10.00 0 | 32500 3360 3360.00 0
33000 10 10.00 0 | 33000 3860 3860.00 0
33500 10 10.00 0 | 33500 4360 4360.00 0
34000 10 10.00 0 | 34000 4860 4860.00 0
35000 10 10.00 0 | 35000 5860 5860.00 0
36000 10 10.00 0 | 36000 6860 6860.00 0
37000 10 10.00 0 | 37000 7860 7860.00 0
38000 10 10.00 0 | 38000 8860 8860.00 0
39000 10 10.00 0 | 39000 9860 9860.00 0
40000 10 10.00 0 | 40000 10860 10860.00 0
41000 10 10.00 0 | 41000 11860 11860.00 0


Nov 1998 Underlying Futures Price = 2925 Expiration Date = 981009

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
25000 4380 4380.00 0 | 25000 10 10.00 0
25500 3880 3880.00 0 | 25500 10 10.00 0
26000 3380 3380.00 0 | 26000 20 20.00 0
26500 2880 2880.00 0 | 26500 30 30.00 0
27000 2410 2410.00 0 | 27000 40 40.00 0
27500 1950 1950.00 0 | 27500 60 60.00 6
28000 1500 1500.00 0 | 28000 110 110.00 322
28500 1080 1080.00 101 | 28500 200 200.00 1705
29000 760 760.00 300 | 29000 380 380.00 2
29500 480 480.00 28 | 29500 600 600.00 0
30000 300 300.00 113 | 30000 890 890.00 0
30500 200 200.00 60 | 30500 1360 1360.00 0
31000 100 100.00 11 | 31000 1680 1680.00 0
31500 70 70.00 0 | 31500 2140 2140.00 0
32000 50 50.00 0 | 32000 2630 2630.00 0


Dec 1998 Underlying Futures Price = 2938 Expiration Date = 981113

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
23000 6380 6380.00 0 | 23000 30 30.00 0
24000 5380 5380.00 0 | 24000 40 40.00 0
25000 4380 4380.00 0 | 25000 50 50.00 52
25500 3900 3900.00 0 | 25500 80 80.00 0
26000 3480 3480.00 0 | 26000 110 110.00 1
26500 3010 3010.00 0 | 26500 130 130.00 1
27000 2550 2550.00 0 | 27000 170 170.00 2
27500 2100 2100.00 0 | 27500 220 220.00 26
28000 1640 1640.00 7 | 28000 320 320.00 13
28500 1330 1330.00 5 | 28500 450 450.00 3
29000 980 980.00 84 | 29000 600 600.00 5
29500 700 700.00 104 | 29500 820 820.00 0
30000 480 480.00 39 | 30000 1100 1100.00 5
30500 350 350.00 11 | 30500 1470 1470.00 0
31000 230 230.00 64 | 31000 1850 1850.00 1
31500 160 160.00 5 | 31500 2280 2280.00 0
32000 120 120.00 175 | 32000 2740 2740.00 0
32500 90 90.00 6 | 32500 3210 3210.00 0
33000 60 60.00 100 | 33000 3650 3650.00 0
34000 40 40.00 27 | 34000 4640 4640.00 0
35000 30 30.00 14 | 35000 5630 5630.00 0
36000 20 20.00 0 | 36000 6620 6620.00 0
37000 10 10.00 0 | 37000 7620 7620.00 0
38000 10 10.00 50 | 38000 8620 8620.00 0
39000 10 10.00 0 | 39000 9620 9620.00 0
40000 10 10.00 0 | 40000 10620 10620.00 0
41000 10 10.00 0 | 41000 11620 11620.00 0
42000 10 10.00 0 | 42000 12620 12620.00 0
43000 10 10.00 0 | 43000 13620 13620.00 0
44000 10 10.00 0 | 44000 14620 14620.00 0
45000 10 10.00 0 | 45000 15620 15620.00 0
46000 10 10.00 0 | 46000 16620 16620.00 0
47000 10 10.00 0 | 47000 17620 17620.00 0


Feb 1999 Underlying Futures Price = 2955 Expiration Date = 990201

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
24000 5580 5580.00 0 | 24000 90 90.00 0
25000 4590 4590.00 0 | 25000 110 110.00 0
26000 3630 3630.00 0 | 26000 140 140.00 2
27000 2730 2730.00 0 | 27000 260 260.00 6
28000 1790 1790.00 0 | 28000 350 350.00 63
29000 1250 1250.00 7 | 29000 700 700.00 63
30000 720 720.00 12 | 30000 1140 1140.00 0
31000 440 440.00 9 | 31000 1930 1930.00 0
32000 230 230.00 22 | 32000 2640 2640.00 0
33000 150 150.00 16 | 33000 3510 3510.00 0
34000 110 110.00 8 | 34000 4500 4500.00 0
35000 80 80.00 10 | 35000 5460 5460.00 0
36000 60 60.00 0 | 36000 6430 6430.00 0
37000 50 50.00 0 | 37000 7430 7430.00 0
38000 40 40.00 2 | 38000 8430 8430.00 0


Apr 1999 Underlying Futures Price = 2972 Expiration Date = 990401

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
24000 5770 5770.00 0 | 24000 100 100.00 0
25000 4770 4770.00 0 | 25000 130 130.00 0
26000 3840 3840.00 0 | 26000 200 200.00 1
27000 2960 2960.00 1 | 27000 310 310.00 5
28000 2200 2200.00 0 | 28000 500 500.00 0
29000 1600 1600.00 0 | 29000 880 880.00 0
30000 1050 1050.00 4 | 30000 1330 1330.00 0
31000 670 670.00 7 | 31000 1940 1940.00 0
32000 380 380.00 8 | 32000 2640 2640.00 0
33000 300 300.00 3 | 33000 3550 3550.00 0
34000 180 180.00 1 | 34000 4440 4440.00 0
35000 110 110.00 75 | 35000 5370 5370.00 0
36000 80 80.00 3 | 36000 6320 6320.00 0
37000 60 60.00 0 | 37000 7300 7300.00 0
38000 40 40.00 0 | 38000 8280 8280.00 0
39000 30 30.00 0 | 39000 9280 9280.00 0


Jun 1999 Underlying Futures Price = 2988 Expiration Date = 990601

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
22000 7900 7900.00 0 | 22000 50 50.00 0
23000 6900 6900.00 0 | 23000 70 70.00 0
24000 5440 5440.00 0 | 24000 100 100.00 0
25000 4920 4920.00 0 | 25000 150 150.00 0
26000 4000 4000.00 0 | 26000 250 250.00 2
27000 3160 3160.00 0 | 27000 380 380.00 25
28000 2420 2420.00 0 | 28000 590 590.00 80
29000 1820 1820.00 2 | 29000 940 940.00 5
30000 1280 1280.00 44 | 30000 1400 1400.00 0
31000 770 770.00 0 | 31000 1840 1840.00 5
32000 550 550.00 21 | 32000 2690 2690.00 12
33000 350 350.00 8 | 33000 3480 3480.00 0
34000 260 260.00 1 | 34000 4350 4350.00 0
35000 190 190.00 1 | 35000 5640 5640.00 0
36000 140 140.00 0 | 36000 6150 6150.00 0
37000 110 110.00 0 | 37000 7150 7150.00 0
38000 100 100.00 15 | 38000 8490 8490.00 0
39000 70 70.00 1 | 39000 9140 9140.00 0
40000 50 50.00 18 | 40000 10140 10140.00 0
41000 40 40.00 0 | 41000 11440 11440.00 0
42000 30 30.00 28 | 42000 12140 12140.00 0
43000 20 20.00 0 | 43000 13490 13490.00 0
44000 10 10.00 0 | 44000 14140 14140.00 0


Aug 1999 Underlying Futures Price = 3005 Expiration Date = 990801

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
23000 7030 7030.00 0 | 23000 90 90.00 0
24000 6030 6030.00 0 | 24000 120 120.00 0
25000 5120 5120.00 0 | 25000 180 180.00 0
26000 4220 4220.00 0 | 26000 280 280.00 0
27000 3400 3400.00 0 | 27000 430 430.00 0
28000 2630 2630.00 0 | 28000 650 650.00 0
29000 1990 1990.00 0 | 29000 960 960.00 0
30000 1410 1410.00 0 | 30000 1370 1370.00 0
31000 1000 1000.00 0 | 31000 1930 1930.00 0
32000 680 680.00 0 | 32000 2590 2590.00 0
33000 450 450.00 15 | 33000 3340 3340.00 0
34000 300 300.00 1 | 34000 4390 4390.00 0
35000 200 200.00 22 | 35000 5230 5230.00 0
36000 130 130.00 0 | 36000 6000 6000.00 0
37000 100 100.00 2 | 37000 6960 6960.00 0


Dec 1999 Underlying Futures Price = 3039 Expiration Date = 991114

Strike Call Dollar Volume Strike Put Dollar Volume
Price Premium Value Call Price Premium Value Put
24000 6510 6510.00 0 | 24000 170 170.00 1
25000 5610 5610.00 0 | 25000 280 280.00 1
26000 4610 4610.00 0 | 26000 410 410.00 0
27000 3850 3850.00 0 | 27000 600 600.00 0
28000 3040 3040.00 0 | 28000 750 750.00 0
29000 2420 2420.00 0 | 29000 1090 1090.00 0
30000 1840 1840.00 0 | 30000 1470 1470.00 0
31000 1400 1400.00 0 | 31000 1980 1980.00 0
32000 1060 1060.00 1 | 32000 2550 2550.00 0
33000 800 800.00 3 | 33000 3260 3260.00 0
34000 530 530.00 4 | 34000 4180 4180.00 0
35000 420 420.00 5 | 35000 4860 4860.00 0
36000 310 310.00 1 | 36000 5750 5750.00 0
37000 200 200.00 2 | 37000 6640 6640.00 0
38000 150 150.00 3 | 38000 7610 7610.00 0
39000 110 110.00 32 | 39000 8610 8610.00 0

damndest sh!t i ever saw tambien!

sept99 370 gold calls WERE $100.....

Thanks for the info. I of course believe there will be a huge but short lived rally in gold shares, so this might allow me to dump RANGY. Fortunately I own many gold shares of much better quality. Hope to bail when BMG stands at 14, or before.

Way cool analysis
Thats a print

Yes

http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSSwissairCrash/sep9_blame.html
------------------------------------------
Star reports.
Many site to choose from.
http://www.associatedpro.com/starr_report/
------------

Well, a Gold forum over on the "BEagle" site eh? I'll just have to head on over there and paruse the goins on...sounds like there could be some instructive late night reading material.....

( And maybe a late night snack to be had! )

GoooooGoldPlatinumSilver.....like a McGuire Homer

Dutchman: Here is the web site for vista. Looks like a low grade operation. http://www.vistagold.com/

Time to rush off and retire. More than time. G'nite all.

Gold ( CMX )
Dec
293.50
295.30
293.20
295.30
+1.50
9/10/98
22:09
295.40
295.00

I really thought I could get away with it, but I guess you busted me. I never really thought that anyone would notice I was projecting Homestake to go below zero.

Oh well, I guess I won't be able to fleece anyone now. Guess I will be reauired to go directly to jail and not collect $200.

In any event, I will continue to enjoy my progeny and my slip in a trip to Disneyworld next February with at least two of my grandchildren. Maybe I can trick them into think all that fantacy is real.

Your 1:02 theory makes sense...I had a hell of a time getting through to my online Ameritrade account today. ( selling some SSC...and Buying some Loral stock to try and take advantage of the Dead Cat Bounce tomorrow! )

BTW, have you ever visited Vronsky's forum? I hear there are some new particpants over there, I may check it out later, or maybe this weekend.

ELgb

of the gold mining co. that operates in Quebec ( owns the Joe Mann mine I believe ) usally trades around a US$ and is listed in Canada as well as in New York? Major drawback is many many millions of shares.

Silverbaron, All: I think there is a valid argument that WJC will attack and congressmen/women who threaten him with impeachment. I do not think he cares about the country, only about himself, as he must live his lie, just as OJ lives in his.

However, there is one way a reticent Congress could get around this, and that is to steadily leak the K Star report on the Net. A steady rain of information, such as 'real audio' copies of the Monica tapes where she describes his sexual preferences, etc., would be more than what WJC and his team could handle.

In normal times I would consider this unethical, because it is nearly impossible to defend oneself against innuendo on the Net. But -- we must believe that KS has accurate information -- and the WJC crowd is about to dig up dirt from virtually everyone's FBI files.

If I thought this was the only way to bring down WJC, I would do it. I would feel guilty because it is unethical -- but I would do it anyway for the good of the country.

Larryn, All: We now know that Brazil literally imploded today with a massive outflux of US dollars. If this is going to the US as dollars, and large quantities of US treasuries are being bought, wouldn't that keep down US interest rates? Perhaps this is why the US dollar is dropping, but interest rates are not going up.

Of course, if this keeps up, currency experts will eventually become anxious about the stability of the dollar, and long term interest rates will go up, not down.

I think now we have to be very careful with our investments, as the market turmoil is increasing. The water may get so choppy very soon that we will not know which way to go with our investments -- Gollum's DOW plane is likely to get rather unresponsive to the controls, and AG and RR etal may not know whether to push or pull.

Either keep your powder dry or -- got ( physical ) gold?

That's the basic scenerio I'm working from, thanks for posting. Asia looking ick.

To all ..
I admire jeils efforts at forecasting various
markets .. but I would not dream of putting money
on them. I REPOST my comments of September 8 .. made
just after the dow had risen by over 350 points..
I recommended shorts or puts on the sp500 at the
next day's open. I didnt say why .. the sp500 had run
up to the optimized MA that I use for it ( 6 period ..
displaced 4 periods.. seems to work ) .. Whoever took
puts the following open would be maybe 40 points in
the bag with the possibility of another 150 to come.
Someone posted that one should not "mess" with ASA.
Forgot who it was .. but suggest he spend some time
back at the drawing board.
As you can see below, Im wrong on homestake .. a rising
tide lifts all boats .. even wrecks like HM. When
investors learn that it will require a gold price of
maybe 325 or so for them to break even.. disenchantment
may set in. But one must never underestimate the
the US market .. stupidity that is .. after all, half
these guys think WJC is still doing a good job at
"running the economy".

Prior post Follows ..

"To mozel/jeil..
I predict that jeil's prediction will not work out!!
I am puzzled by references to the "alarming accuracy"
of the past predictions .. I imagine that "past" prediction
and data are made coincident for purpose of the
prediction process itself and do not really represent
prior prediction overlaid with prior actuals.
No offense jeil .. I doubt if you really want your
predictions to work out anyway. Am I mistaken on my
interpretation ??
My OWN prediction for the sp500 is a fall to around
780 - 820 ( which everyone will interpret as the end of
the world and kitco will enter a period of cheerleading
rapture ) .. followed by a RISE to at least the prior
high and more likely beyond.. THEN we get a serious
BEAR!!. All this because I see the sp500 in a major
wave 4 decline ( present up move prevides a lovely
short or put occasion in my view )
Regarding gogold forecast .. I attach no weight to
it one way or the other.. Is there anything less
than total disregard ??
My view on gold stocks in not chart related .. I
believe Homestake is a dog and will see 6 .. I believe
ASA is a champ and will see 27.. all because of earnings.
.. great in the case of asa .. rotten in the case of
homestake."

OK, I'll once more try it again.
RJ -- That being the cae, I'll be reloading whatever I can find out there BIG to jam up the turkey galkers!

Jeil -- Clinton is a problem but his handlers are an even bigger problem that WILL extend onto the next, and the next, and the next, until there cannot BE a next! He's just a frontman, and this is a Carny full of marks!

A prewarmer for Y2k.

Also we are observing a prewarmer on the derivatives scene.
With over $100 trillion exposed - did I hear $150 trillion all up.

We are seeing massive losses being declared.
And yet we are just approaching the melting point.

What the hell will it be like on the other side?

Who on this site needs to be warned?
Who on this site needs to wonder if they should buy gold???

Beware, because you have been warned.

Got gold, grub, guns, generators and gasolene.

...but you'll always find old farfel here on K-2.

Sometimes on golden-eagle too.

I still like Plat and Palladium...NOT at these prices however.

I'll wait for them to fall...as sure they must.

Plat @ 325 by 11/11.

Yes.

Thanks.

F*

Gollum -- The yen thing HAD to be a time related problem. Nothing else seemed to match. You made a most excellent post in bringing that out. I salute you!

13,879 down 876 or 5.36%

Red.

It amazes me to see how complacent my co-workers are regarding the continuing slide in their retirement accounts. They have been trained to be passive investors with no understanding of market/economic forces. All they know is the stock market provides a 25% return each year. If the markets do lose one-third of their value ( 6300 Dow/800 S&P ) , don't these people realize they will need a 50% return just to get back to their portfolio highs of six weeks ago. Of course, most would probably tell you that it would ONLY take a couple of years of "normal" returns.

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 20:35
eck333 ( Earl, your extension ) ID#53235:
What is your extension on the trading floor?
Or if you want to be more private, could you please email
it to me at eck333@yahoo.com

It is usually the height of bravado to step in front of a speeding freight train. ( It is nicer if it is a steam engine of the variety experienced back in the 1950's. ) The essence of the question is which way the train is going.

I continue to believe that we are in a gold bear until late this year. This gold rally has more the feel of a C wave of an A-B-C correction that began in mid summer. The B portion of the wave pointed downward which is not a good sign for those positioned long gold/gold shares. Next week should give some clearity. If gold and shares break upward then I will admit to being in error. If a break to the downside materializes, then deflation continues and those who went long will have been premature ejactulators.

When CNBC is running commentary that gold/gold shares may be a good place to park money, look out on the downside.

The answer to your question is Campbell Resources ( CCH.Toronto, NYSE ) .

The Preacher

Your 00:56 about the Yen carry trade. That must be it -- the big Japanese banks got caught in the Yen/Dollar carry trade, and now are being forced to unwind their positions. So -- they do the only thing they have control over, they reduce Japanese interest rates.

If your assessment is correct, there is little time left for these big Japanese banks, especially if the US dollar continues to fall. Confidence in the US dollar must be dropping faster than they expected.

And, if AG reduces US interest rates right now, he will push Japan right over the brink! Wonder what he privately told the Japanese when he hinted at dropping US interest rates.

If you are right about this, we are moving toward a world financial crisis that will probably rival any in recorded history. The financial storms are now on many fronts: SEAsia, Russia, South America, and Japan.

It is hard for me to imagine the magnitude of what could happen -- and it is just our luck that the US should be in a Consitutional crisis at the same time. Well -- at least y2k is not a problem right now.

Bravissimo ! You sure you don't need to factor in the weather - how many days of rain etc - and of course you noticed that the words GM ( General Motors ) and Gold both start with a G - highly significant.

Company upgrades? A sudden spate of "favorable" corporate news releases?

The Wall Street analysts and brokers are doing whatever they can to turn around the expanding negative psychology in the markets.

The analogy:

The sinking of the Titanic = Wall Street Finally Facing Reality of Sinking Global Markets and Currencies.

The crewmen = the Wall Street Analysts Who have Access to the Lifeboats.

The special lifeboats provided to the wealthy Insiders and Favored Clients = The Spate of Analyst Upgrades and Favorable Corporate News Releases, provided in order to allow the insiders to escape the market debacle, ahead of the average investors.

It seems interestingly appropriate that the video release of "TITANIC" occurred this month.

Very interesting.

Thanks.

F*

http://www.familyjeweler.com

All: If we have a dead cat bounce tomorrow due to Intel and Microsoft after what happened in Brazil, and what is happening now in Japan, I will be stunned! And -- then we have the K Starr report coming out on the web.

One thing the markets definitely do not like is uncertainty. Good for gold, even if I fear the reasons for it going up.

Jeil -- I give it equal probability at this point in time. Perhaps even a bit more leaning in your favor; that the bear in gold is not yet over. SHOULD the yen/dollar once again reverse course, then there is still a VERY distinct possibility of gold heading south. I don't think that it could be FED related though unless the FED raised rates, rather than the expected lowering. Both are scary thoughts in their own way, but so is letting them remain where they are; How can the other countries regain some measure of liquidity as long as OUR markets remain the so-called place of safety of yield? And if the rates are RAISED, it just compounds the problem. But perhaps Greenspin will pull a 'Japan' type move out of his hat. That probably about sums up my thoughts for the most part on it.

I forgot to tell you but ANOTHER called me last week and said the BIS was working through Poland to buy gold in the open market for all to see. So far so good.

The Preacher

NOW AT MINUS 900 PTS. The Nikkei has decisively breached 14,000 and isn't likely to recover in the next 10 minutes. Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:29
Jeil ( Still a temporary gold bear ) ID#253228:
Copyright  1998 Jeil/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is usually the height of bravado to step in front of a speeding freight train. ( It is nicer if it is a steam engine of
the variety experienced back in the 1950's. ) The essence of the question is which way the train is going.

I continue to believe that we are in a gold bear until late this year. This gold rally has more the feel of a C wave of
an A-B-C correction that began in mid summer. The B portion of the wave pointed downward which is not a good
sign for those positioned long gold/gold shares. Next week should give some clearity. If gold and shares break
upward then I will admit to being in error. If a break to the downside materializes, then deflation continues and
those who went long will have been premature ejactulators.

When CNBC is running commentary that gold/gold shares may be a good place to park money, look out on the downside.

---------

Actually, my own theory as to yesterday's spate of CNBC pro-gold info and "somewhat" negative stories on bonds concerns liability....in other words, I think they are covering their butts....FINALLY.

If bonds turn out to a disaster ( as far as flight to safety ) and gold does indeed end up the ultimate flight to safety, then I would imagine there may be many enraged viewers who will not appreciate the continuous neverending stream of CNBC agitprop that bonds are the ultimate flight to safety. They may in fact take recourse against the network for providing "misinformation."

Again, if stagflation is here, bonds are about to face some major problems. MAJOR!

Finally, I would imagine that The Street and its affiliated Big Media now wish to promote paper that will do well in a hideous Bear.

It is not in The Street's interest to see all paper burn. IMHO.

THanks.

F*

Hi,

I have been more than enlightened by your various comments whenever I drop in on KITCO. I trust all is well in your part of the world.

By comparison to you and others who have indepth knowledge of their respective area of interest, I feel small. The only thing I know of is what I do, and as can be seen by any observer, that knowledge is somewhat flawed.

I was thinking recently of the idea of predicting. If I threw a ball across a room, anyone who observed its path of flight, could estimate where it would land while it was in mid flight. Is that a prediction of the future or simply an estimate of the forces acting upon that ball.

What I am plalying with is identifying the forces in motion that will carry a market in flight to its destination. I am not predicting but projection and the forces that drive markets, which while identifiable, are also somewhat varible.

I am hopeful that my work has finally reached the point where it is useful; judging by my recent profits that is suspect. I can only say that in spite of all the bullish news that I read ( which sometimes causes my hands to shake ) I wonder why the gold shares and gold have not flown to the moon.

Everybody has a theory about why rangy doesnt move.
One problem I have is that many people email and ask ME
why it doesnt move.. This is getting painful and time
consuming .. Ive posted several times why I sold Rangy
long ago .. told everyone I was doing it and WHY I
was doing it..
I believe ( and have said this I dont know how many
times ) .. Rangy wont move until the operation in Mali
( Syama ) starts to make money.
Moreover, all the competing RSA mines will benefit
fully from the fall in the rand. Rangy only benefits
about 50 % since Mali costs are unrelated to the Rand.
The RSA mines will rise in price because their
earnings will be impressive. These earnings will become
visible at the end of the 3rd quarter... say by mid..
late October. I will post them for you or you can find
them on the net. Then them will be compiled by various
services and mailed in report form to various investment
houses. These reports will be read by analysts over
cups of coffee. Then the RSA stocks will be recommended
and purchased .. timing .. December ..
I think they will go up then.. Then I would sell
them ..
Rangy will perhaps be passed over.. If Syama looks
good Id switch into it .. or maybe the plats ... or
maybe puts on homestake or maybe the diamonds or maybe
even calls on the SP500... who knows what the future
holds... ??

Globex now shows Dec S&P DOWN 920 basis, Nasdaq100 DOWN 850 basis, and yen UP 187 basis. In fact, looks like another washout for the Klinton-almighty buck. SO much for a couple pseudo good numbers on a couple stocks in pulling it all ahead so far. But of course, this IS the thinly traded Globex!

It's nice to hear from you on your handgun preferences.
I also like .356, and I got two of them, but for some
reason Ruger and Sturm Co. screwed up and called it .357,
Since that time I'm forced to buy only .357 instead of
.356, which is 0.001 bigger, and it drives me crazy...
---------------------------------------------------------


Disclaimer: I know it was a typo...good night, get ready,
rock-n-roll Friday is coming....

Jeil -- Any chance that your charts of the downtrends in the gold stocks are pointing in the wrong direction?

Thank you *smile*. Actually, if Friday sucks wind, Monday might actually be interesting.

Japan closes below 14,000
Australia closes below 2,500
( my NAB put warrants up today, hehe )

Jeil - the predicting of the flight of a ball is easy enough. assuming you have an empty room, with no drafts, you can assume that gravity remains constant and that the mass of the ball and the earth both remain constant. quantum effects are negligible for macroscopic objects ( anything bigger than atomic size, like the ball ) .thus, the motion of the ball is governed entirely by the initial velocity and direction.

Global markets are ... ahem ... to put it mildly, ludicrously more difficult to predict. Millions of variables potentially come into play ranging from politics, demand, supply, disasters, etc. etc. ( your imagination is probably better than mine ) . Even so, within certain constraints, I suppose some trends can be 'predicted' using various Theories - Elliot, Chaos, whatever.


We each have our own crystal ball and we're all trying to make a buck. On the same market. We are each a butterfly flapping its wings wondering if we're gonna be the cause of that hurricane across the ocean tomorrow.


go the impeachment! go gold!

Jeil -- Or is there a possibility that a massive move in those stocks in the positive direction might shift your projection well into THAT direction?

anyone got pog ? wonder if aussies sold forward overnight

cpo_uk

This does seem to be an interesting juncture in the path of gold/gold shares. My calculations have been showing an imminent decline for quite some time and the move all in all has been sideways for Homestake and down for most other shares. My calcualtions are more fluid/dynamic than I would like them to be, but then that is the way I built them to be. ( What is that old saying about beware of what you wish for. )

The rally of recent days has been much stronger than anything I anticipated. In addition to my charts, my thinking now is that gold is possibly completing the C wave of a very anemic A-B-C wave set that corrects the first wave down from mid summer. ( There was a large bear wave down into January, 1988 followed by an A-B-C correction up to the $300 range mid summer; that was followed by the first wave down of the next bear leg plus a correction of that first leg down, which correction was mostly downward itself and which is about complete. )


This little diatribe on the Elliot wave idea is just a psychological trick I am using to bolster my position based on my charts, but it gives me some temporary comfort. Any real comfort will need to come from an actual blowoff bottom over the next several months.

Jeil -- I hadn't realized that you had incorporated some Eliot wave into it. Thought it was just based upon a whole lot of cycles superimposed upon each other; additively and subtractively, with the result being graphed.

http://www.oanda.com/converter/classic

Thanks.

F*

---------------------------
Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 23:51
MJPL ( POG and the yield on the US Long Bond ) ID#153120:
Since 1974, that is all the data I have for gold, POG and the yield on the US long bond go hand in hand, as gold
went so did the bond. With damn few exceptions gold has called every major move up and down for the long
bond and GOLD HAS LEAD THE LONG BOND BY AS LITTLE AS 4 WEEKS TO AS MUCH AS 9
MONTHS. It is amazing how closly these two series track each other. If gold keeps it uptrend and history is any
guide, and I think it is, the flight to quality into bonds will turn in to a flight for life out of bonds and into gold.

Jeil -- You realize of course that if you incorporated Eliot wave in there and missed a count, that those stocks could certainly have seen their bottom and truly be on their way up. Right?

Jeil -- Hope I'm off base with the supposition that you incorporated Eliot wave in it. ( Or maybe not! )

is better than not getting it up at all.
For Jeil ..
I find what you have done very intersting .. I
love it. Problem is that I dont believe all of
it.
I am not not basing investment decisions on whether
or not gold has bottomed.. I believe that it is very
likely that at least a temporary bottom is in place
and a runup over 300 will follow.
Nonetheless, that assumption is not controlling. The
effect of the rise in the rand price of gold .. and
also the aussie $ price of gold on unhedged aussie
mines .. will be equivalent to a gold price increase
of 40 $/oz over RSA 2nd quarter results which were
already good. RSA results will be very good and their
prices should rise as a result.
Reference your commnent on gold stock performance being
generally disproportional to Kitco
enthusiasm .. I couldnt agree more ..
The NA stocks make little or no dough even
with hedging .. the aussies seem to be scratching..
and nobody knows anything about RSA. Except
for stuff about getting highjacked ..
I think RSA 3rd quarter profits will change
that scenario .. and I think homestake puts
are almost always good BUT NOT FOR THE MOMENT.

Like your handle.

The issue you address is one that causes anyone making estimates of the future some concern. I often wonder myself how perdictable life is and how much we are just seed being blown in the wind. ( Billy Bob Clinton might like that use of language. ) My best guess is the bell curve of statistics. There will always be that 2 1/2 beyond the third standard deviation that is beyond the realm of any analysis. Otherwise, I hope that there is reasonable predictability. There are not many midgets and not many giants that I notice; maybe they stay indoors.

In any event, clearly there is some perdictability. Usually it does get colder in the winter and warmer in the summer ( northern hemisphere ) , though there are always those stray days. The markets do not jump randomly for near zero one day to quadrillions the next. There does seem to be some anchor ( trend ) around which market move.

I have long chuckled about the egocentricity of man. Originally we supposed the earth to be the only universe, then the center of the universe, then part of a solar system with other stars being insignificat
, etc. My thinking is that if our universe came into existence that is evidence that other universes could come into existence and in reality our universe is probably just a garden variety univers among many universes, and that whatever the next greater structure beyond universes is probably just garden variety also, etc, etc, etc. Maybe tomorrow our universe will bump into an adjacent universe and we will go poof so that will destroy all bets and projections. Given that this does not happen perhaps some minor estimates of the future will have a degree of probability.

Any dabling in Elliot wave is strictly off the books. I have a tendence to get nervous when I have $$ on the line, and attempt in a very rudimentary fashion I try to discren possible Elliot wave counts. Of course, I only count in a way that deludes me into believing my charts.

Asia, Europe, Globex, etc, everything but Gold down.

Jeil -- GOOD! Now I feel that I can take those charts a wee bit more seriously. Eliot wave seems to be a bit too subjective to interpretation. Now, is your projection line modified on a daily basis as new numbers come in?

.. my aunt Fanny ..

Someone said something about "stock dilution" in the
case of DDeep.
I dont buy that. The value of a company's shares shoud
depend on their earnings OR the value of their assets
divided by the shares outstanding ..
So if a company can raise money it needs by increasing
shares and selling at the market value .. its value
per share remains unaltered .. whats the problem ..
The only proviso is that the money raised would be
for a good project.
For example Harmony had a big capital increase
recently.
It used the money to buy Evander .. adding about 20
mill oz to resources at less than 10 bucks an oz. You
have a problem with that ? ... not me.
.. A roundabout side benefit is that by financing
by cap increase .. the liquidity of RSA stocks
is increased a bit .. I see this as a slight plus.

I can't say that you are incorrect in what you say. If I were in a more confident mood maybe I would banter back and forth with you, but my emotions are frazzled for reasons aside from the recent goings on in the gold arena. I really do believe we are within months of a magnificent move upward, probably better in the South African shares ( at least for investors in dollar based countries ) . In reality for anyone "dollar cost averaging" the consequences of today, two months, or four months from now is meaningless. For players like myself it can be significant.

Hey Hey! Gold up a couple bucks now. Possibilities....!

Well, about time for me to turn myself off for a few. 'Night all.

Welp, what can you say. If the DOW follows the rest of the world's lead, it'll drop right through recently set lows, where it'll stop, nobody knows. I'm off to bed. Maybe my shorts will pay off tomorrow, dare to dream.

It was my impression that the additional shares issued by DROOY were not sold on the market to increase capitalization but were parceled out like stock options to owners/management. Am I wrong to assume this? I appreciate your comments since I own both of them. Do you think they are both worth holding - I thought you had previously stated that you had sold all of your RANGY?

The hedge funds and gold shorts will do their damndest over the next two trading days to try and fake out the general equities bears and gold longs. With collapsing global derivatives, they are trying to heal a slashed jugular vein with mere bandages.

Do Not Let Them Fool You! Stay the course.

Rhody, you wondered about the ultra low lease rates for gold, conjecturing that so long as they are so low, gold must necessarily fall farther. Essentially, you went so far as to claim that you believe the gold bear continues. You contended that there necessarily MUST be a spike in gold lease rates in order to portend tightening CB gold supply into the market.

I think your analysis is mistaken.

Here's why:

Although historically, the lease rate has jumped in advance of big moves in gold....if you believe the major Western CB's are trying to contain the gold price ( ergo protect the US Dollar ) , then one would expect
them to encourage gold shorting via the lowest rates possible. Essentially, gold shorting has evolved into a form of US Dollar protection IMHO.

Only problem is this:

If the hedge funds are bleeding via huge losses in general equities and erroneous bets against the Yen, then they may not be in a position to borrow gold at even a mere .5%. I would imagine that is why the CB's keep dropping the gold lease rate...as a means of encouraging gold shorts.

With margin calls pouring in ( God, just imagine if you held major positions in some of those plunging US bank stocks! WHEW! ) , then what hedge fund in hell wants to think about leasing gold in that type of panicky, desperate environment? Naturally, a fund would be far too busy containing its equities losses and raising capital. I would imagine it would wish to avoid expending any new capital for new gold leases. More likely, the fund's best methodology for raising fast ( desperate? ) infusions of capital or avoiding greater losses of capital ( take your pick ) would consist of closing out its gold shorts. This capital could then be applied to protecting fast-weakening positions in the equities/derivatives markets.

In other words, Rhody, the funds just may be too busy patching their sinking ships at this moment to take the proactive measure of leasing gold.

So, I do not think you will see huge spikes in gold lease rates until the moment arrives ( hope it doesn't! ) when things completely get out of hand and the western CB's, instead of protecting the US Dollar, simply give it up, and rush for the lifeboats themselves, urgently recalling gold loans and bidding for gold wherever they can find it. There's your future spike in gold lease rates...TO THE MOON ( as BUGal is wont to say ) .

Essentially, I think it's all part of The New Gold Paradigm ( as described by myself upon Vronsky's great web-site, golden eagle ) .

Thanks.

F*

Just noticed your prior post on RANGY. Hopefully, I will be the last one to ask you about it. Thanks - much appreciated.

Found this thread over at Silicon Investors, with the above title. If you want a derivatives fix, then this thread is for you. Excellent stuff there. For example, one study was cited which estimated the total amount tied up in derivatives to be between 100 Trillion ( 1 followed by 14 zeroes ) and 500 Trillion $US. http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-22689

we all have our own opinions ( mine is a sorta mishmash given all the info i try to absorb everyday )

but -- how do you explain that some of your charts have sections of them going to below zero? anytime you wanna give me HM shares for free, you're welcome to... ditto gold :- )

ahh... the human condition. in the final analysis, it's greed ( for money or power ) that caused this overblown financial bubble. now it's gonna be fear that sparks the panic that causes the overcorrection.

y2k - human laziness and put-it-off-till-later-ishness.

what will save us from the mess that y2k brings? love? altruism? hmm...

Now that Russia's Chermyodin is gone, replaced by a de facto Commie, I am beginning to like Plat and Palladium more and more. Maybe there really will be genuine supply problems after all.

Hey, I may just go out and buy my wife another PLAT present for next Valentine's Day.

Come to think of it...No, I'd rather buy her a gold treasure instead.

Deedy do.

A study of 79 firms, including banks and brokerages, with 14 trillion US$ in assets, and 83 trillion US$ in derivatives contracts. What strikes me is this--We really don't know how much is tied up in derivatives and how much trouble some of these firms are in at present. Remember Barings Bank. http://www.ny.frb.org/bankinfo/circular/11003.html ( not sure if Kitco will take this full link )

@RJujuBUGal...I just don't know...

One moment I loves Plat...

...and the next moment, I could care less.

One moment, I think it's headed for the moon...

...and the next I figure it's rangebound.

Reminds me of a split personality kid I know who posts on this forum and K-1.

One day, he tells everyone that gold is poopoo...and the next he extolls it to the stars.

Shifts around like the everchanging wind.

Weird kid, if you ask me.

But I still get a kick out of him.

Thanks

F*

..
General Mozel Suh .. the ONE THING
that the ANVIE ( army of northern Virginia
in Exile ) needs is FINANCE.. Otherwise
how am I gonna pay these 20,000
panga wielding Tutzis I got sitting
on my front lawn .. awaiting further
instruction ..
Im am not gonna GET that finance
with advice from you like that last
little GEM on not messin with ASA.

John,
How are the gold stocks in Johannesburg reacting this morning? Are we looking at major moves up?

Gollum your 00:56 ( those Crazy Japanese ) was excellant. Recommended read for everybody including some of the talking heads on CNBC - thater is the essence of the problem - an act of desperation.

John, what's wrong with Range - just kidding -your answers to questions regarding the South Africans are greatly appreciated and I think you will be proven very correct - I hope I am a little richer for having followed your logic into action. Go Sgoly go HGMCY!!

Speaking of cheerleading I think Jeil is right the action in gold is inverse to the sentiment and level of cheer leadlng on this board. We are all getting pretty confident - just about time for a tank or at least a pull back. Mr Jeil or Jiel, I'm sure you are a very pleasant man and I hope your work has made you much money - I'm affraid its over my head except for the simplicity of the little yellow line.

When will the Starr report clogg the internet - that is my question - when somebody knows when that event is about to take place I hope they will advise us here. This coming trading season looks to be filled with the most dramatic - all we need is not to be able to get in touch with brokers.

I bet we have an interest rate cut this weekend - wait a minute, that will drop the dollar and potentially set off the fall of the house of cards that are the yen/bods/gold spreads.

Wonder if AG knows what he might do if he drops rates to support the stock market . . . I think we're in trouble deep.

^jgai is up a cool 7.5% at this posting - has been up near 10%

I like it more and more, what them aussies do.
http://www.asx.com.au

Of the 24 Sub-Indices of the All Ordinaries Index the major movers were: Gold up 61.7 points ( 6.5% ) to 1015;

Gogol

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a643536.htm

One and a half hours after opening ( now ) , Gold Index is up 4.7% and JSE Overall Index is down 2%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/gi.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/fr.html

Retired Soldier: youve got email.

All
This may be of interest for you also

As long, as you enter EU-borders with gold in form of legal tender, means coins with a face value ( which is the case with all tradeable bullion-coins ) there is no duty for declaration at the customs, as well as you will not be charged with any payment in form of taxes, duties, customs or whatever.

One sympathy-point for Duisenberg:
His non-declaration of the composition/value of EURO-backing gives Europe an advantage in the temporary and future troubles on the currency-markets.
There is still free choice, how much "foreign-money" resp. Gold will make the Euro what it is supposed and intended to be: A stable currency, So with the USD in sharp decline and a sick yen, Au could turn out to be the Jolly-Joker, as there is plenty of it in EU and maybe at a BIS-controlled bottom.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980910/bzn.html

http://nypostonline.com/business/5389.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980910/byw.html

Just a thought:
The decline in POG at least within the last 20 month was at least supported from several european CBs. ( as well as some swiss-sources ) . Now: I do not think, any of the CBs of future EURO-members could run a completely independent policy. ( Remember: 20 % of all backings were already physically in the hands of EWI, which now is followed by the EURO-CB ) .
So: What, if a weak POG was planned and enforced - whith swiss and BIS- support - to give the possibility to design the desired "value" of the Euro and to give it at least an advantage in the delicate phase of launch.
Via lend?ase-rates it should be possible to determine POG und thus the exchange-rates of the Euro within very short time - maybe overnight. Which other financial instrument has this ability?

And how does Swiss/BIS-policy fit into this scenario?
They are - at least geographically - surrounded by EURO-members and they want to keep their currency hard&stable. They have a vital interest in european politics. I think, they would support this strategy. Maybe it was even their idea.

Nick Goodman our resident gold expert predicts $310-$320 short term .Any Comments?

http://www.russiatoday.com:80/rtoday/news/98091019.html

According to austrian teletext, the Starr-report could soon be published at
http://thomas.loc.gov.

@John_D No disparagement of ASA was intended by my general observation of its relative prospects purely as shown on Jeil's charts. You have every authority to conduct operations in your theater according to your judgement. Send mo money. Fer th' Cause.

@Fred@Another Your insights were claimed by Another. Are you the Newton or Liebnitz of the calculus of Euro-Gold ? Or both ?

pictech:
I share Nicks piet wishes. Short term I think it is mainly dependent on Ken Starrs bestseller and its impact on BC. This, I think will determine the US-currency, which I think has at the moment the biggest inluence upon the POG.
I do interprete an estimation 310-315 as caused by very bad news for Bill, but I wonder, how much bad news are allready escompted in yesterdays and todays action of the POG. Maybe a POG jumping over 295 or better 300 ( as "magic barriers" in a psychological sense ) immideately after publishing some details would trigger a nice short-squeeze.

Have you got the URL for Nick Goodwin's site? cheers, Nick

The distinguishing characteristic of a successful terrorist organization is the relatively disciplined use of legal process to coerce. In other words, the deliberate, controlled use of force for a positive purpose. This makes legal process a threat, and a very efficient one. It also herds the populace into a zone of comfort in which the threat is perceived to be predictable and ,by compliance, avoidable.

Probably the most efficient terrorist organization of all times is the US Internal Revenue Service. By publication of forms and extensive, skillfully worded instructions combined with selective prosecution and skillful use of publicity about prosecutions, it has created a public image of legal invincibility. It has also an image of brutal, arbitrary power beyond the control of law. The public hearings in Congress on the IRS abuses of power and on the plight of taxpayers who were its target instilled terror via the nightly news. The use of terror to exact from a population is as old as government. And as old as banditry. When one man does it to another, it is called extortion and is a crime, universally, so far as I know.

Few people are aware that USG had loosed itself from the restraints of the Constitution in the matter of taxation and tax collection as early as 1839.

IRS is the envy, I think, of every federal agency and its methods are widely admired and copied. Some have posted on the FCC raids on low power broadcasters, which, naturally, were well publicized. The modus operandi of seizure is a page from the IRS book. IRS itself learned at the knee of Customs. Now, every agency lusts for a seizure statute. Even local cops have gotten seizure power.

Some day people will realize the problem is not government. The problem is those people who are willing to use government to coerce others to achieve some economic, politicial, or social objective. Then, the problem will be less amorphous and more easily identified. And more attention will perhaps be devoted to learning and recovering a form of law which those in government cannot easily abuse for private purposes. Any statute enacted by a legislature that does anything but clarify the common-law is private law of private conscience in the sense that it is the will of some imposed on all. The very idea that legislators can enact statutes on any subject helter skelter is the antithesis of the principles of common-law, which originated and were developed in the complete absence of any legislature. Hence, the ironclad deference to precedent of the common-law judges unless an actual error of reasoning based on the received principles or maxims could be shown. The freedom which drew people to American shores was more due to the principles of common-law than to the Bill of Rights. But, by not offerring this fact as public knowledge, politicians and lawyers insured that nobody would object when legislators usurped power.

Perhaps no activity is so fruitless as the spontaneous uprising of the ignorant aggrieved. History is replete with peasant rebellions. Invariably, the ignorant were cheated of progress even in victory. Exactly as they are today at the polls.

The depth of our plight may be gauged by the fact that even after it is shown that land cannot be owned unbeholden and labor cannot be stored into permament wealth and the rights and liberties they cherish cannot be secured under common-law and Constitution and an end of government by war powers cannot occur in America until gold and silver coin are in circulation as money, so many still prefer the inducements of credit upon legal tender and usury.

Nic Goodwin's comments can always be found at http://www.moneyweb.co.za

Am I imagining things or is Bloomberg Tv shooting subliminal messages at the public? They seem to be experiencing difficulties and the frames are freezing and messages in CAPS are frozen on a blackbackground; BLOOMBERG HAS IT ALL! I'm telling you I saw it, no kidding! Anybody else see this?

Gold up $3.80

Japan's economy shrank 0.8% in the April-June period from the previous quarter and 3.3% for the year. Government figures showed that companies cut production and capital investment amid lower consumer spending. For a record third straight quarter, which began when the government raised taxes in April 1997, the contraction was worse than the 0.3% slide forecasted by economists. It seems that government fiscal measures have done nothing to stimulate the economy and yesterdays interest rate cut was not well received, being considered a futile gesture to stimulate the economy. The EPA's Sakaiya said "the government will revise its GDP growth forecast this month for the year through March 1999." He said in July that "the government's forecast for 1.9% growth would be difficult to achieve," and that "the figure is more likely to come in at -0.5% to 0.5%. Some economists forecast a 0.4% contraction in GDP. Analysts feel that an increase in public spending probably won't be seen until the October-December quarter. Japanese have only received 4 trillion of the 16.65 trillion yen ( $126.4 billion ) government spending package that was supposed to revive the economy through tax rebates and public works spending. The partial stimulus initiative gains, however, have been offset by drops in wages and job opportunities, putting downward pressure on housing starts, as well as automobile and department store sales. Household spending has fallen for a record nine straight months. Several major bankruptcies and slumping exports to Asia have stifled already weak consumer confidence. Rising exports to the West have helped Japanese companies offset tumbling domestic and Asian sales, however, due to to expanding contagion to the West, analysts are unsure how long that will last. The Nikkei dropped for a third day today as another plunge is expected on Wall Street, which would lead to waning Japanese exports. With that, analysts feel that, given this deteriorating confidence in the US, the Yen is likely to continue to slide in the months to come.

Source: Internet Currency Trading News

Mozel
Personally, my opinion always was that the Euro will be a strong currency similar to the Deutschmark. As well as I never was an eager scholar of ANOTHER. To tell you the truth - I do not like his writing-style and so I stopped to follow his posts. Last thing I remember was the Oil for Gold theory.
So my take is based primarily upon what I receive from rather local european sources, transformed by some understanding ( I hope ) of mechanisms in European politics and coloured by my own interpretation, which always is rather pro-gold.

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5682919

http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5710567

Any comments about Gollum's theory that Japan lowered interest rates in desperation, because the Japanese banks haven't had time to unwind their US dollar/Yen carry trades? Sounds disturbingly logical.
I have a comment, and another question. I have long believed that derivatives trades are sort of a secret weapon because very little is public, compared to the general equities markets. Derivatives damage tends to show up only in quarterly/annual reports, if at all. Also, I would guess that near a blowoff in the markets, derivatives trading volume might actually surge up -- not down, as investors/traders desperately try to adjust for unexpected altered risk. Could be that a sudden liquidity dryup in derivatives trading is a terminal sign. Might be Brazil only, or it might be far more significant.
So -- any idea how one can estimate whether worldwide derivatives trades are going up right now ( or suddenly down ) ? Your most recent bombshell suggests very strongly that US banks may actually have pulled the plug on their derivatives traders -- probably in connection with the Brazil/Mexico situations. And -- any thoughts about how to find out just how deep the Japanese are into Yen/US dollar carry trades?
If this is indeed the reason for Japan dropping interest rates to near 0%, Japan must be very close to oblivion, IMHO. Presumably AG, RR and the PPT are working overtime to help the Japanese with their 'little problem' as John Cleese might say.
Of course, there is the little matter of Brazil. Presumably R. Dornibush has it 'well under control'. My guess is that -- regardless of how many brilliant economists you put on a project -- if the markets are controlled by a corrupt, select few -- the project will fail. Mexico never upgraded their markets as they promised after the 1994 episode. Brazil probably really did nothing either, though the warning was there for all to see.
Of course, we ( Americans ) should not talk about free markets too glibly -- because it is clear that ours are not really free either. Just a bit less corrupt and debt-ridden. Unfortunately, open access to wealth via the markets eventually corrupts, regulations or no. Just takes longer, if no one is watching the cookie jar.

Japan's economy shrank 0.8% in the April-June period from the previous quarter and 3.3% for the year. Government figures showed that companies cut production and capital investment amid lower consumer spending. For a record third straight quarter, which began when the government raised taxes in April 1997, the contraction was worse than the 0.3% slide forecasted by economists. It seems that government fiscal measures have done nothing to stimulate the economy and yesterdays interest rate cut was not well received, being considered a futile gesture to stimulate the economy. The EPA's Sakaiya said "the government will revise its GDP growth forecast this month for the year through March 1999." He said in July that "the government's forecast for 1.9% growth would be difficult to achieve," and that "the figure is more likely to come in at -0.5% to 0.5%. Some economists forecast a 0.4% contraction in GDP. Analysts feel that an increase in public spending probably won't be seen until the October-December quarter. Japanese have only received 4 trillion of the 16.65 trillion yen ( $126.4 billion ) government spending package that was supposed to revive the economy through tax rebates and public works spending. The partial stimulus initiative gains, however, have been offset by drops in wages and job opportunities, putting downward pressure on housing starts, as well as automobile and department store sales. Household spending has fallen for a record nine straight months. Several major bankruptcies and slumping exports to Asia have stifled already weak consumer confidence. Rising exports to the West have helped Japanese companies offset tumbling domestic and Asian sales, however, due to to expanding contagion to the West, analysts are unsure how long that will last. The Nikkei dropped for a third day today as another plunge is expected on Wall Street, which would lead to waning Japanese exports. With that, analysts feel that, given this deteriorating confidence in the US, the Yen is likely to continue to slide in the months to come.

Source: Internet Currency Trading News

Any comments about Gollum's theory that Japan lowered interest rates in desperation, because the Japanese banks haven't had time to unwind their US dollar/Yen carry trades? Sounds disturbingly logical.
I have a comment, and another question. I have long believed that derivatives trades are sort of a secret weapon because very little is public, compared to the general equities markets. Derivatives damage tends to show up only in quarterly/annual reports, if at all. Also, I would guess that near a blowoff in the markets, derivatives trading volume might actually surge up -- not down, as investors/traders desperately try to adjust for unexpected altered risk. Could be that a sudden liquidity dryup in derivatives trading is a terminal sign. Might be Brazil only, or it might be far more significant.
So -- any idea how one can estimate whether worldwide derivatives trades are going up right now ( or suddenly down ) ? Your most recent bombshell suggests very strongly that US banks may actually have pulled the plug on their derivatives traders -- probably in connection with the Brazil/Mexico situations. And -- any thoughts about how to find out just how deep the Japanese are into Yen/US dollar carry trades?
If this is indeed the reason for Japan dropping interest rates to near 0%, Japan must be very close to oblivion, IMHO. Presumably AG, RR and the PPT are working overtime to help the Japanese with their 'little problem' as John Cleese might say.
Of course, there is the little matter of Brazil. Presumably R. Dornibush has it 'well under control'. My guess is that -- regardless of how many brilliant economists you put on a project -- if the markets are controlled by a corrupt, select few -- the project will fail. Mexico never upgraded their markets as they promised after the 1994 episode. Brazil probably really did nothing either, though the warning was there for all to see.
Of course, we ( Americans ) should not talk about free markets too glibly -- because it is clear that ours are not really free either. Just a bit less corrupt and debt-ridden. Unfortunately, open access to wealth via the markets eventually corrupts, regulations or no. Just takes longer, if no one is watching the cookie jar.

Gold Prices Advance, But Forecasts Are Mixed

By TERZAH EWING Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Gold bulls finally had a rewarding day Thursday as concerns about political conditions in the U.S., global-markets turmoil and the weakening U.S. dollar converged to bring in new buyers and prompt some of the more-timid bears to close out their positions in the precious metal.

And in a sign that gold's rally Thursday may continue, analysts also said the market, beaten down for months as safety-conscious investors turned to the dollar and to U.S. Treasury bonds rather than gold, benefited from new buying by commodity and hedge funds, banks and brokerage houses.

Jeffrey Christian, managing director at CPM Group in New York, said gold also got a lift from small investors in the U.S., Europe and some parts of Asia. "It's partly because of the stock market, partly for portfolio diversification and partly currency hedging," he said. Mr. Christian said his firm's short-term expectation is that gold will continue to rise to between $300 and $304 a troy ounce. "Then it might back off some," he said.

The key December gold contract rose $6.40 to settle at $293.80 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. October gold was up $6.30 to $291.40. Gold prices also increased in Europe. Just two weeks ago, the metal was at 12-year lows. Mining-company shares paralleled the metal's move and staged an impressive rally, with the Philadelphia XAU index of gold- and silver-mining stocks jumping 11.6% Thursday. Much of Thursday's positive sentiment, traders said, stemmed in particular from the weak dollar, which lost ground against both the Japanese yen and the German mark. Since June, gold has strengthened and weakened with the yen, which is seen as a proxy for buying power in beleaguered Asian economies. And any lagging by the dollar world-wide is seen as a bullish for gold, which the dollar had replaced as a safe-harbor" investment. Thursday, the dollar closed at 134.40 yen, down from 136.85 on Wednesday.

"Gold is still moving closely with the yen," said John Levin, vice president at Mitsui & Co. in New York. "The yen recovered from its recent weakness, and that spooked some of the more-nervous shorts in gold."

Not all participants in the gold market believe the rally will continue. William O'Neill, senior futures strategist for Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, said the proliferation of uncertainties made for a good day for gold "but the fundamental picture is still negative. When you throw all the different crises together -- Asia, Russia, emerging markets, President Clinton -- they created an atmosphere that allows for higher gold prices. But we don't see a sustained rally." But some gold bugs insist the depth of the financial turmoil overseas does spell a longer-term bull run for gold. Harry Bingham, who manages gold funds for
institutional investors at Van Eck Global in New York, said he believes gold could shoot up to $400 before the year ends. "People are scared, and that's bullish for gold," he said. "We have a serious global-currency crisis that's now getting closer to home. If everyone's devaluing, what will they have to devalue against? Gold."

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980910/cornucopia_1.html

Japan downturn set to continue-Sakakibara quoted
TOKYO, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - Japan's downturn will continue into the early
autumn, Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's vice finance minister for international
affairs, was quoted as telling the Financial Times on Friday.

``From what we have observed in July and August, the July to September quarter
will not be good,'' Sakakibara was quoted as saying.

Sakakibara, who has hitherto been consistently upbeat about the economy,
insisted that a rebound would occur later this year, as public spending
projects would start in September, the newspaper reported.

``I don't think that the Asian or world crisis is over, We are on the verge of
a deflationary spiral and we need to avoid that,'' Sakakibara was quoted as
saying.

( More Bullshit. There are not on the verge of a defaltionary spiral. They are
IN one. The only thing they are on the verge of is collapse."

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980910/bsx.html



Japan economy continues to worsen--BOJ TOKYO, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - Japan's
economy continues to worsen, with weak final demand and worsening employment
conditions, the Bank of Japan said in a monthly report issued on Friday.

In the report for September the central bank said: ``Japan's economic
conditions continue to deteriorate.''

( No shit )

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980910/buu.html



Thursday September 10, 10:06 pm Eastern Time
FOCUS-Japan's central bank says economy deteriorating
( adds comments by MOF's Sakakibara, stocks drop, EPA chief )

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - Japan's central bank on Friday said the battered
economy was deteriorating and recovery was not in sight, as a top Finance
Ministry official warned that the nation was teetering on the edge of a
deflationary spiral.

``Japan's economic conditions continue to deteriorate,'' the central bank
said in its monthly report, adding consumption was stalled, capital spending
trapped in a lengthy period of adjustment and unemployment stuck at high
levels.

The pessimistic assessment from the central bank came two days after it eased
credit for the first time in three years and ahead of the release of data
later in the day expected to show the economy shrank yet again in the
April-June quarter.

Echoing the gloomy tone of the central bank's report, top financial diplomat
Eisuke Sakakibara -- usually an unrepentant bull on Japan's economy -- said
the downturn would continue into the early autumn and that the economy was on
the edge of a deflationary spiral.

Faced with weak demand, companies have cut output significantly. Corporate
profits continue to decline, personal income is falling faster, and
unemployment is stuck at high levels, it added.

Private economists say the economy has already slid into a deflationary
spiral, in which falling prices hurt corporate profits and force production
cuts. That in turn leads to fewer jobs and shrinking income, which depresses
demand and then causes more price declines.

``If this isn't a deflationary spiral, it's a pretty good imitation of one,''
said Brian Rose at Warburg Dillon Read in Tokyo. ``When you have everything
going down at the same time including prices and wages, this is it.''

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980910/bx0.html

=============================

So go ahead Pollyannas. Think that the world's second biggest economy
teetering on the brink is going to muddle through the disastrous consequences
of their having utterly failed to address Y2K.

Japan's failure ALONE will tailspin the world into a depression.

There is no longer anything that Japan can do. They are helpless and dead in
the water. They SCREWED up collosally this time. South Korea and Malaysia are
next in line to go.

--
Paul Milne
"The road to TEOTWAKI is paved with good expectations"

Someone bought 1150 contracts feb 300 puts on gold in Amsterdam - just few minutes ago

Someone bought 1150 contracts feb 300 puts on gold in Amsterdam - just few minutes ago

If my conjecture of last night is correct, it might seem incredulous that a country would risk economic suicide on the thorw of the dice, so to speak. Risking the national destinal in an almost suicidal act.

Such as Pearl Harbor.

Warrior class in Japan has an underlying tenet that in battle, the man least afraid to die is the most likely to succeed.

Many of the leaders in the country come from that background.

Sometimes it works. Sometimes ( WW II ) it doesn't. In the Japanese warrior sense of honor above disgrace, whether it works or not virtually doesn't matter. Faced with what would otherwise be disgrace one goes down swinging.

Budo is the preparation for death. But in learning how to die, you learn how to live, respect, and appreciate life. Business is combat, and there are only two options: survive and live on ... or die.

Believe it or not, but the Globex is pointing to an UP morning for the DOW. Other indicators are mixed.

Perhaps the idea is to suck in the day traders this AM so they can help out in the big selloff this PM?

The cultures of the East are not as those of the West. You see most wisely.

Tom

Good thing you sold that airline. Looks like the Japanese pilots are out in full force. Makes you want to get physical.

Back to work. Good trading to all.

Tom

Kitco is tooooooo slooowwwwww. Plus, those of us in South and East Texas are under flash flood warnings. Go GOLD!

James,

The Syama Heap Leach will be in PRODUCTION next year with a production of 50,000 Oz a year at a cash cost of $130. The best news about this is that CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FOR THIS PROJECT IS ONLY $11 MILLION. The whole thing will pay for itself in nearly a year, or much less if the POG improves. This is on top of the scheduled 270,000 from Syama @ $210 this fall. Maybe they wont make it all the way down to $210, but that still leaves quite a bit of error room to still turn a profit. My spreadsheet work of late comes up with an annual profit rate of nearly $30 Million at POG $350. This will certainly be more than enough to fund further developments of their deposits. If their MORLIA bankable study comes anywhere close to the feasibility study, then Im very confident theyll have plenty of people wanting in on the action. The deposit is already 2 million + ounces and growing, and their cash cost estimate is a very impressive $118/Oz.

John Mr. Harmony Disney. I feel your pain with all the rangy email questions! Maybe the more we answer here the less well get via email. The following link shows RANGY owning over 60% of the Harmony Options, some 4 Million of them.
http://www.edata.co.za/scripts/edata2.dll?pagename=webdetails§ion=&article=Corporate977

From an email I received last week from the Rangy staff, Im under the impression they still own all of these. Can you please provide more details on these options? Any luck viewing my rangy spreadsheet yet? Thanks.

Has to be just giddy with excitement. The Democrats are still bellyaching about not getting advance copies. Shows just how important and effective spin really is.

I cannot believe that 100 million people are going to converge upon three sites for this lengthy document. This will be an interesting study about information dissemination in the information age. Researchers could not ask for a better experiment as this is a universally sought piece of information which has a defined point source in both time and space..

I think there will be chaos, pandemonium, and false stories until later tonight.

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but look out when it does.Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

That last thing I want to see
My president do, is grovel
I am embarrassed
By his performance this morning

If one is contrite and sorrowful
And truly repentant
One can only prove this
By accepting responsibility
And the consequences thereof
For sins committed against us all

A true repentant
Would welcome punishment
For crimes committed
Does forgiveness preclude
Punishment under the laws of our land?

I think not

Nope

News from the dogpound. Finally some upbeat news on this jr. I just nabbed me some more. Should be one of the last to fly, but at 18 a share and exciting news like that, I couldn't resist. Go Gold - Symbol VGZ

Why all of this hype over VGZ? It's current price is nearly akin to Pegasus. What is it that has you so excited about this Jr. miner? Thanks.

Why all of this hype over VGZ? It's current price is nearly akin to Pegasus. What is it that has you so excited about this Jr. miner? Thanks.

In GC98Z I'm seeing 5 waves up from the low on the hourly chart, and 5 waves up to 300 on the 1 minute chart.....and as soon as gold stuck it's nose above 300, somebody squashed it like a bug. Terminal candlestick formations on both GC98Z and the XAU look pretty bearish.

If you're into gold stocks or futures, be careful in here - at the least we're due for a 3 wave pullback, IMHO.

If you're into gold bullion, buy some more from Kitco. It's still cheap and lasts forever.

and a spade should be called a spade. and....failure to publicly call a spade a spade is to implore the loss of one's liberty.

It is now time for Clitton to return to the low life from whence he came...ashes to ashes. What good could be expected to come from this son of a family of bums? dirt begets dirt....we know this....it is a basic law of life.

America, especially its youth, must now see the fruits of lying...and witness the painful costs of immoral deeds. Our generation must stand this ground or we shall bequeath unto our children a poverty that will snuff out the light from our predecessors' great and good deeds.

You took the words out of my mouth about BC. How many others are thinking the same.

You took the words out of my mouth about BC. How many others are thinking the same.

ECB President Duisenberg states Euro-zone money supply as recorded by M3 is growing at less than six percent. This statement opens the door for an eventual rate cut by ECB or for the Bundesbank to enact a rate cut. Although the statement has little intitial impact on the dollar, I believe it could lift the dollar against the mark. The ECB Vice-President, states that their has been no accelearation in M3 growth but, rather the opposite.

Traffic is only now easing up.
The XAU looks to have headed back down as well after rocketing to 71.77 overnight. Seems to be levelling at 68.

The DOW, OTOH has been undecided after its usual 200pt gyration.
Down to 7520 up as high as 7732.
Currently tightening up around 7650 - it's waiting for something.

Here - BOO!

Is there any more news on the Russian sub situation? Russian sailor has killed between 8-13 people with sub-machine gun, and wounded others. Last report had him holding crew at bay.

Thanks for the warnings. I think I'll heed your advice as I'm getting the same vibrations as you. Maybe a good time to take some profits as they have not come easily lately.

Next step - war with Serbia

Net is slow. Kitco is slow. Dow is +80. Gold can not keep morning highs. Sh*t

The page in the URL at the link you posted does not exist, at least that is what is says.

Looks like we're due for some backing and filling. Unless something changes between now and quittin' time, the XAU will finish the week with a shooting star for the day. Coming back to fill the small gap at 59?

Gold looks like it will finish the day with the same pattern.

Cleared my position in SWC this morning for a nice profit. ..... most unusual.

9 up ( Brazil, Mexico and US included ) , 36 down. Don't touch the DOW, it might break, it feels fragile to me. Time for some more bear news from somewhere, the market has eaten everything it's seen so far.

http://www.tv-u.com/china.html#RED

Waiting for a sign to pull in a few more for the pm selloff or cut the engines and drift down.

Last night I guessed: "My bet is for a slight up at the open and then more sell-off in the afternoon as the specifics of the report spreads and increases the fear of compromised US leadership in a time of financial crisis, with perhaps a Gollum's Traders spike-up at the end."

Wrong on the open, still have a chance to be wrong at the close too and get a happy ending, at least for those of us with bearish bets.
-EJ

Looking at gold on 30 min bars, for this move from 278, it has tended follow the 10 and 30 bar ma very nicely on a 3 day cycle. If the pattern continues it should settle back to 293 or 294 over Mon/Tues. Below that the short term is broken and more lows in store.

Teenage Sailor Kills Eight, Holds Russia Sub

The ministry, in a terse statement confirming the latest in a countless series of similar incidents in Russia's underfunded armed forces, said there was no danger to the vessel itself

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19980911/wl/shooting_2.html

That's the "latest" FWIW.

put it in yo pocket ..
never ever let it gooooooo..

For Earl ..
Daddy what does a shooting star
MEAN ?????

Comment from a Forex trader:

"What is going on?...Banks are not answering their phones, nobody willing to make markets...it took me 15 mins to get 200 DM/Yen contracts done basis Finex EFP! Anyone else seeing this kind of stuff?"

Thanks. Campbell Resources it is.

this is getting ridiculous...every time Clinon appears on the idiot box Robby Rubin hops behind the levers and starts yanking like crazy....who wants to be in these manipulated paper markets?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980911/5u.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/btlines/980911.btl_clinton_fights_.html

Thanks Cage Rattler for the excellent URL. I will print it for my Christian children and Christian friends to read. America's Judgement is just on the horizon.

Thanks Cage Rattler for the excellent URL. I will print it for my Christian children and Christian friends to read. America's Judgement is just on the horizon.

Bonds in all-time high terriroty, 12 points above March 3rd!

Please tell us how your friends feel about it.

Thanks.

farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

US/yen moving around +/- 8% in a day....very few can make money in this environment...noone can do regular bread and butter business....just sit and wait for the defaults/bankruptcies of MAJOR banks brokerages and traders.

I have no sympathy for them....usurors the lot of them. It's high time some weak people got back to making an honest coin through the sweat on their brow not on the seat of the arse.

Thanks Cage Rattler for the excellent URL. I will print it for my Christian children and Christian friends to read. America's Judgement is just on the horizon.

There are a couple of hours left to the trading week and at the moment, the Dow is a few points below last week's close.

Please update us on the 1,000 points decline of the Dow this week and also give us some more details about the 2500 to 3000 points fall for next week that you have announced a few times over the past 2 weeks.

Thank you.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

I've been a market bull for at least six years up until just this summer. I honestly, and very seriously, have no idea who is buying this thing right now. I just don't get it. Maybe I'm missing something ? I know that sounds like every bear you've ever heard yelling this and that about the absurdity of the thing, I guess you can count me in with those guys. Forget about the upcoming quarters earnings and their revisions down, that's history, but what is up with these projections for the two quarters after that ? Do people honestly believe this pig is going to turn around on a dime ?

All the markets have ground to a halt pending Starr report......NBC REPORTS REPORT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO CONGRESS...SAYS ADMINISTRATION WORST FEARS REALIZED

Don't forget to answer the question below when you get a chance.

Thanks.

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 21:00
Realistic ( @farfel ) ID#410194:
Don't forget to tell us what is your opinion today of charting and technical analysis.

Has it changed?

Thanks.

Date: Wed Mar 04 1998 20:35
farfel ( @OLDMAN...IN AN EXISTENTIAL WORLD... ) ID#339265:
...like the one we live in, there need not be any rules or scientific formulae in which things begin or end. Charts are meaningless when random chaos appears.

So load up on your Metamucil.

It's here.


F*, the Unpronounceable.

This Puetz envy thing is getting boring.

It would appear that unless something drastic changes in the next 2 hours ( which is certainly possible given Clitno's shennanigans these days ) ...the DOW will end the week higher than it began.

And this..in the face of a weeklong blitz of perhaps some of the worst news for the markets that you could have produced. Hmmmm, maybe this market retains a bit of it's bull strength eh?

Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 21:12
BUGal ( .......No Market crash next week..... ) ID#206235:
Copyright  1998 BUGal/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
But I don't much like the prospects for October 27! Here's the thing though as far as September.

* New IMF deals will be announced ( even though they lose credibility with each new deal )

* Clitton has now "apologized" ( What sincerity....when forced by politics and your own defecting DEmocrat
pals, use the words grudgingly )

* Lot's of money on the sidelines looking for a "buy" opportunity.

* Margin calls covering sales are pretty much over.

* Latest economic numbers were strong.

* FED / AG will make noises about lowering rates, market will lap this up ( temporarily )

Last, but most importantly, Puetz predicts this coming week as the crash! Given his near flawless record of bad
calls, even a DOW bear market, is sure to end next week higher than it began, given Puetz's Full Moon / Lunar
eclipse arket crash call, set to begin Tuesday.

Long term players, stay away. Traders, make a short term play!

All.....get some Gold, I did today ( just a small order of AE's and also 10 "Saints"..my perrinial favorites, and
NO , the dealer wasn't out of stock, though they mentioned higher than normal sales )

LGB

According to a report in the London Times today, UN arms inspector Scott Ritter, who resigned August 26, has reported that Iraq is hiding "three technologically complete nuclear bombs and is lacking only fissionable materials to make them operational." The Times said that the disclosure of the information and more regarding biological and chemical weapons Iraq "came as another showdown between Iraq and the UN loomed." The article went on to say that "the UN team is also said by Mr Ritter to have information on the method used to conceal the bombs, the units and officers responsible for guarding them, and the types of vehicle employed to transport them in the game of cat and mouse between Saddam and the UN experts."

Don't forget to answer the question below when you get a chance.

Thanks.

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 21:00
Realistic ( @farfel ) ID#410194:
Don't forget to tell us what is your opinion today of charting and technical analysis.

Has it changed?

Thanks.

Date: Wed Mar 04 1998 20:35
farfel ( @OLDMAN...IN AN EXISTENTIAL WORLD... ) ID#339265:
...like the one we live in, there need not be any rules or scientific formulae in which things begin or end. Charts are meaningless when random chaos appears.

So load up on your Metamucil.

It's here.


F*, the Unpronounceable.

A report today said that few New York State localities are prepared to handle the questions posed by the millennium bug saying that it might put emergency services at risk, including those in New York City. The state's comptroller, whose auditors found that 26% of the cities, 54% of the towns, and 48% of the villages had yet to make plans to deal with the problem, said, "Jail security systems, 911-emergency systems, payroll, even traffic lights depend on technologies which must be checked and rechecked to ensure that they are working properly for the Year 2000." Additional facts learned by auditors was that 61 % of fire districts also had not yet dealt with the problem.

Source: JVIM

Religion=the last refuge of a lying, sociopathic, sex maniac.

Hey, just wait till George Soros talks on Monday about the state of the international economy. You know Sir George: he incites panics that were already in the making. Should be interesting if Soros "disses" the IMF.

13:39 INTERNET SUFFERS CUT FIBER LINES ON EAST COAST AFTER TRAIN DERAILMENT.

When will we hear from that presidential pickle pleasin' Monica? The cigar story probably embarassed her... huh? toooo sad...toooo bad.

Un gulpO y un puffO ( non-cigarO ) to YA!!!

"I have sinned"..Does that absolve him of the murders too? guess sooooo. How 'bout SDRerO's "Song of Solomon" recommendation....tee hee.

Puetz...you had predicted in a few of your posts that the market open on Tuesday, would initiate our huge crash in the DOW....due of course to the weekend Eclipse / Full Moon. Instead we had the biggest One day DOW point increase in history. FLAWLESS bad call record as always...

However, not to steal Realistic's thunder, but it appears we'll end the week higher than we began. In spite of, as I mentioned in the otehr post, an absolutely HORRIBLE week as far as market sensitive news items.

Are we still on track for the 1000 point DOW drop this week, and 2000 to 3000 point drop next week that you had predicted a few days ago? Not much time left before the bell.......

Date: Thu Sep 03 1998 12:01
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#226307:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It appears that the technical rally is over. It was rather pathetic. Not
nearly as strong as I had anticipated.

It's full speed ahead for the crash. I am once again fully positioned
in put options on the S&P.

The fact that the Transports, and some other foreign markets have
broken down below Monday's lows indicates the weak nature of
this market. The final confirmation will come when the DJIA close
below 7500.

Margin calls seem to a much greater problem than even I anticipated.
That's especially true for hedge-funds. Many of these funds will
probably have to liquidate everything they own in the next several
days.

The lunar-eclipse arrives this weekend. Anticipate super-large drops
in the DJIA next week and the following week.

I have never been as bearish on stocks as I am at this moment.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

At the risk of being nit-picky, can someone explain to me how the POG as shown on this site is UP $2.70, and yet the close for yesterday was $293.35, and today the current bid and ask are $292.90 - $293.40?? How can this be up nearly three bucks, but trading at or less the closing price from yesterday???????

That's what makes markets. You can't have a market without buyers. It's hard to imagine how someone can see the picture we see here and conclude that the stock market has upside potential, but not everyone is looking at the same picture we're seeing and some people are looking at the same picture but drawing different conclusions.

My sister last week bought a bunch of Microsoft. To her this looks like a buying opportunity. I bought Rydex Ursa. We can't both be right.

I did send a few choice news bytes to her this a.m. to try to change her mind. But she's such an optimist, God bless her. When she loses her house she can always come live with me and my wife.
-EJ

DOW at +50 after dropping somewhat. What's that sound of engines revving up in the background?

Silverbaron, All: If the world's fiat currency system is at risk, our gold rally will be squashed. I think it was AG that said that the gold markets are a cheap way to manipulate the value of the US dollar, since the daily US dollar trade is in the trillions -- greatly in excess of FED reserves. I'm sure we all remember the day that AG said he would push gold down the minute it went 'too high'.
A realization that WJC will probably be impeached might very well have a devastating effect on the markets, and AG may then have to push gold down one more time to 'save the fiat currencies'.
I think one other reason why the current gold equity rally may not last, is that US long term interest rates have not risen significantly, despite a nearly 10% drop in the value of the US dollar. Amazing, isn't it? The time of the gold rally will come, but not until the 'fiat currency' gurus have thrown in the towel.
Keep 'most of' your powder dry -- or buy physical gold. The clock is ticking.

While analysts and newsmen are busy finding parallels between today's Presidential crisis and the Nixon era; they are missing a far more significant historical correlation. In Bush's Administration, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Persian Gulf War completely masked the fact that by the end of the conflict, the U.S. had been in a recession for nearly six months without anyone in power ever knowing it was happening. The Clinton scandal and the diversions he creates to wiggle out from under it could create the identical situation. Witness that no one is even talking about the huge drop in PPI this morning, reported at down .4% versus expectations of down only .1%. No one is talking about the 3.3% drop in Japanese GDP or the fact that the Nikkei, which was considered to be a portent of disaster if it fell below 15,000, is now at 13,000. Everyone is glued to the Starr report, and waiting to be entertained by Clintonian diversions. Stock markets worldwide keep dropping in tandem with GDP numbers and inflation statistics to the peril of the global economy and all anyone can think about is what Clinton will do instead of resigning. As self-absorbed and self-justifying as he and his wife both are, resignation is not pending. Actually he probably deserves to have to serve out his term--the way the economy is looking it will not be an easy piloting project. He might have to hunker down and be a real President.

Last week we postulated that this Fall could bring respite from the chaos of the late summer in the markets, but that has not happened yet, and it does not look nearly as imminent as we had expected. The dollar continues to lose value and world stock markets are clearly at risk of starting to lose some muscle now that most of the fat is gone. Commodities are comatose with barely an eyelid flickering, and bonds continue to enjoy their coronation as most honored safe haven.

Martha Eden

Source: http://lp-llc.com/cents/hanseatic.shtml

Considering that those crazy Japanese, those warrior Japanese, spent some time conferring with Mr. Rubin before/during thier infamous lowering of local interest rates, leads us to suspect that come Sept 29 we will not see a lowering of interest rates.

This would tend to bring renewed strength in the dollar and the US Treasuries rather than a cashing in of windfall profits which would other wise be the case.

The Japanese then having dodged the bullet for the time being could then proceed more methodically to liquidate and unwind the Yen carry trade spring without undue market mayhem.

To really do things up right we would see the Fed saying something like they will not be lowering rates at this time but are seriously doing it in the near future. Everyone rushes to buy treasuries and the Japanese sell them all they want.....

EJ: Well, I'm betting directly against your sister by holding some MSFT puts for January, I wish her the best, I'll see her on the field of battle soon enough I'm sure *grin*. I really would love nothing more than to see this as a buying opportunity myself, I like seeing the market go up, but I just can't convince myself.

EB: I seem to remember you calling this action days ago, congrats.

Cage Rattler: 3 nukes in Saddam's hands ? Ummm, that's so bad I can't even be scared about it, it almost didn't even register in my mind as a possibility when I read your post. That's about the biggest news tid-bit I've seen all week.

for LOU Packette ..
I respectfully suggest that you MAY
be confusing the close of the december
future price which was about 293
yesterday and is about 296.5 now and
the spot price which was about 290
yesterday and is 293.4 now ..
.. It really IS up a bit over 3 bucks
Lou.

We, being for the most part small fish, don't have to worry about it too much, but the really big time players like Sorros, Buffet, the Japanes, etc. when taking a large position in something always need to consider an exit strategy for getting out ( as well as an entrance strategy for geting in ) .

Usually this takes the form of some kind of con so the big guy can unload on lots of little guys.

Still just sitting there, but I'm sure I hear engines revving. Maybe eveneven a little louder than before.

LGB: I think the most likely scenario is more market turmoil for a period of time. The situation in South America looks worse and worse, so even without Japan and Russia, I think a wave of investor ( derivative ) losses is going to sweep over the US within a few months. I don't think WJC will resign that quickly, so a market rally even for a month or two seems unlikely.

Amazing times we live in.

Instead of Big Brother just watching us, He/she/it is watching our leaders. The quickening/awakening is upon us, and it is the information revolution. Sounds like a variation of the immortalized POGO cartoon strip quote, when Albert ( or POGO ) said: ' We have met the enemy, and he is us'.

He's not answering you because he can't possibly understand how ALL beings aren't existentialists. For *Fwipe, reality is simply whatever he might want it to be....it's difficult for him to conceptualize that otehrs may consider reality as something outside themselves. Thus he probably doesn't even understand the nature of your question to him.

Oh yes, on another subject, I posted on K1 re Puetz's, once again FLAWLESS record of bad calls...with the yet another "Market crash" for this week... ( the eclispe was to usher in a 1000 point drop this week, beginning Tuesday of course and 2000 next I believe ) but I wasn't able to find some of his posts with the actual point drop predictions.

If you have them handy, perhaps you would be so kind!

*L

John Disney @ Shooting stars, hammers, hanging man, etc. etc....here's a nice site:

http://www.why.net/users/blhill/pages.aux/murrey/candlestick.html#doji

JTF - There are too many cross-currents just now for me to make any good judgements on whether gold should go up or down. I'm only relying on technical stuff - my amateur Elliott wave counts, a nice channel formed by connecting waves 2 and 4, with a parallel from wave 3 that ends up in the vicinity of today's top. The candlestick formation reinforces the fact that today is probably a sell for gold.

Why are you buying CEF? It's just gold and silver. No earnings. Currencies may fluctuate but no real problem in this since we live in the US. You are going to lose money...our experts say gold and silver are going down not up real soon.

Oh, well, I'll get you some more shares. Would you like our stock tip sheet? Ok, I won't send it out.

THEY are working real hard to keep and get people to buy the regular market...real hard. Maybe they are correct. I watch and wait.

Tom

Gollum: I think you are on the money with the Japanese and RR working together to hold the Yen/dollar carry trade together long enough for the 'big guys' to backout. Of course, the Japanese could do much more to instil Japanese investor confidence, like reduce government expenses.

If the US dollar continues to drop over the next few weeks or so relative to the Yen, I think we all know what that would imply --

Don't want to put 2 & 2 together on this one at all...

Turk Cops Seize Uranium, Arrest 8
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980907/international/stories/turkey_uranium_smuggling_2.html

You suppose this was the first instance?

http://www.cnn.com/starr.report/

New high for the day, engines REALLY loud, could there be week traders as well as day traders?

Maybe I'll call this the great Gollum DOW rally....

Vista is the former Granges who in the early 90's owned an large interest in Hycroft. Hycroft who was pushing 100,000 oz at thetime made a turn around in 92/93 and went from a dime to about $3.35 and made me an excellent profit.

Today Hycroft is wholly owned by Vista, I think that Hycroft a large low grade Nevada operation is Vista's major holding.

This deal with Cornucopia brings to Vista the debt that Cornucopia owed its bankers to get the property to its present status, the operation while highgrade for a heap leacher hasn't any major proven and probable tonnage to speak of.
BUT:
The area offers good developement possibilities and hopefully gold makes it to $400 and stays there before rising to higher plateaus.

Mapleman I hope you make a bundle.

You're screwing with my short position, stop playing around and land this thing!

Kinda like a Freddy Kreuger movie. Just when you thought he was finally dead.....

Silverbaron - My gut says this is a short term sell also.
But, gonna stay the course for a while ( till the 'puta says EXIT now ) .

1. I do not believe ( nor have I ever believed ) that the Euro would be backed, pegged or in any PUBLIC way fixed to gold. I wish it were otherwise, but it is NOT. What IS a small "t" truth, is their dedication to gold-as a financial asset for THEIR purposes. That is little enough, given the propaganda war that has been waged to convince sheeple of gold's lack of monetary consequence in the modern world.

2. The world's CBs are using gold to ( a ) align the major world currencies and ( b ) align the European currencies prior to the "final fix". Gold is fulfilling two of its three functions in this role: it is a standard of measurement, their calibrating tool and, in their reserves, a store of wealth. ( In their elite community it will also act as a medium of exchange. But they do not mean to allow us anywhere near it! ) This is THEIR redress of the Stability Problem; gold is the fulcrum. To fully understand Their appreciation of gold, consider this:

"5.07. In the system, each financial asset has a counterpart liability, with the EXCEPTION of those financial assets classified in the category MONETARY GOLD AND SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS"

3. Gold is the Money of a world, of a people, who have a FEW commonsensical laws and hold those laws inviolate. Gold is the Money of a world, of a people, who choose NOT to live as 'victims'. Gold is the Money of a world, of a people, who predicate power on a base of moral Truth-a world in which the concept of "situational ethics" would make no sense. Look around. Is that the world you see?

4. Think La divinia commedia; we are just BEGINNING our descent, with no Virgil to guide us through the Inferno or Purgatorio. Paper must burn, belief must be purged. The World must earn ( regain ) Paradiso ( Gold ) . It is going to be painful

Essentially, Clinton had an affair and tried to hide it.

Big deal.

Where Whitewater gate, travel gate, dead bodies, etc.??

Almost to the second when the Starr Report became available on the net, the Dow took off. Makes you think ...

although I thought it was the London PM bullion price close I was looking at, not a futures price. Just look at the prices on the front of the kitco site - those are what I was looking at. But will take your word for it....

Sorry, I sold all my stuff out to that Japanes banking consortium. I'll see if they'll back off a bit out of good will.

Don't worry though.

Sunday is the Ides of September.

This shows how many times the President and Monica 'committed acts that may constitute grounds for impeachment'.

http://www.cnn.com/starr.report/7grounds.htm#L13

I think WJC will need alot more lawyers and spin doctors. I wonder -- perhaps now the Democratic Party funds will mysteriously dry up.

Remember, the REAL frenzy begins in the last 30 minutes.

5. We have allies: With "Thanks!" to Silverbaron for his Perseverance

"From the first of September a system of accounts 100% based on Dinars ( gold ) and Dirhams ( silver ) will be in operation. The new institution, called Islamic Wakala or Islamic Agency, is inspired on the traditional wakils or agents in Islam. Most Muslim traders in the days of the Islamic Dinar had their own agents in the key trading cities. They hold accounts, made payments, transfer money and merchandise under the instructions of the trader they represented.

The Islamic Wakala therefore will not be a bank, but a means to make the Islamic Dinar function as a world currency. UNLIKE BANKS, OUR AIM IS TO KEEP THE GOLD IN THE POCKETS OF THE PEOPLE, WHICH IS THE SAFEST PLACE IN THE WORLD.

The Islamic Wakala will maintain in accounts only whatever is the minimum required to facilitate instant payments across the world for those who need it.

It will not intend to replace the use of the physical currency, but on the contrary it will encourage the use of the physical currency.

No lending will be involved. No usury will ever again touch our Dinars and Dirhams. This is the end of the banking system."

Umar Vadillo, Islamic Mint and Islamic Wakala
June 30, 1998
Communication to Silverbaron ( which Silverbaron posted Jul 1998 )

$296.80 DEC. GOLD!! Repent of your paper perversions! Repent, I say!
JUDGMENT DAY HAS ARRIVED!! Repent, you paper sinners!! NOW is the day of salvation for all true gold bugs!!! Sell paper and buy gold you sinners!! There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth come Monday!! XAU at 68.72!! Believe it!!!

On the one hand the RSI looks bullish ( did not make a new low when gold made a new low recently below the January low price ) and the current rally does seem to be trying to break over a trendline along the tops since the highs in Jan '96 around $413.

But gold staged a nice rally starting in January up to $314 earlier this year only to get squashed. I see nothing but resistance all the way up. What do the chartists on this site say about this? What would you need to see to confirm the bottom is in place and the trend has turned ( if you don't think it already has? )
Regards

Thousands of short positions being slammed shut.

.09/11 14:27 *GOLDMAN SACHS ALTERS VIEW, SEES SLOWER US GROWTH IN '99, FED
EASING IN SPRING

Gollum: I think the court of public opinion will impeach him on this alone. All Nixon really did was try to coverup the Watergate Apartment breakin. And -- they got Al Capone on a technicality -- income tax evasion.
I'll bet that K Starr has alot more -- but I think he wants the impeachment attempt to be clean surgical strike without any messy Mena, Arkansas stuff. The implied threat is there -- that there is more -- if needed. But -- no one wants the really dirty laundry to surface and embarrass both Dems and Republicans alike.

Gold stocks mixed today, even though gold is up and dollar took a good hit. My only explanation is that gold investors fear that the $300 level won't be penetrated.

Highhopes

HAS CALLED THE TOP BY TAKING FLIGHT IN AN ILL WIND THAT BLOWS NO GOOD! Hi HO Silver and AAAAAAWAY! Heh...heh..heh!
Look at that DOW SUCKA' FALL!!

Gollum: You could be right that many people expected much worse today, even if it is not logical. But when did logic really matter anyway? The unknown is what hurts the markets the most -- not knowing how devastating the news will be.
My guess is that WJC will be steadily worn down by news releases in the ensuring months -- just wait untill we hear the audio, and Linda Tripp's testimony -- and there could be the bit about the drugs in Arkansas when he was governor -- which may very well have happened in the White House too. There will be a measured, continued disclosure until WJC loses what little support he has left. K Starr just told us that testimony is contining -- the investigation has not ended.

Here is a quote from William Jefferson Clinton in 1974 regarding Nixon, per a letter to the editor in the Orange County Register 9-11-98: "Yes, the president should resign. He has lied to the American people, time and time again, and betrayed their trust. He is no longer an effective leader. Since he has admitted guilt, there is not reason to put the American people through an impeachment. He will serve absolutely no purpose in finishing out his term; the only possible solution is for the president to save some dignity and resign."

Your earlier reply makes much sense to me. I put very little stock ( NPI ) , on predictions for an imminent crash ( or DOW 10,000 for that matter ) .

We're technically in a Bear market and will remain so, with volatility for the unforseable future. It's a good "buy" opp. here, but I'll be staying on the sidelines for quite awhile, other than forays into my own company stock ( I bought a bunch of LOR yesterday in 401K due to it's precipitous drop ) .

I have a brother, who's doing quite well buyinh BOTH Put & Call options on the S&P simultaeously, to take advantage of the current volaility moves. He makes day trades and is raking it in. But alas, he's a lot younger than I and can afforf to lose all his money in derivitaves....they're not for me. Not in S&P. not in Gold & silver.

I'll stick with tangibles... ( oops, the paper haters are REALLY going to take issue with me calling my Loral shares a "tangible"! )

Monday will see further climb in the DOW...or at the least, fairly flat activity/ Starr report not as explosive as was thought.

Puetz's crash is nowhere in sight.....

Some weeks ago I mentioned that the Starr report would be a
"nothing". The rule being, that when you make your living off the
establishment you do nothing to end the establishment. A few hours
ago there was a post on Red China and the US. In that report it is
mentioned that how can STARR investigate anything when he is representing
the Chinese and their interests.

It's like I said, this is just a circus. Just like the Romans.
You want change? HOW? Every polititian from Clinton to Gore to Gingrige
( sp? ) is on the payrole of the powers that be: The big money and guns
of the world.

Hey, but not to worry. Some one has to fight the Muslems so why not
sacrifice the Chinese? That's the way I see it. We are not stupid and
these people are not traitors. They are just setting WW111 up so Americans can enjoy their beer, popcorn and the internet. That's all
most of us will be able to afford after this is all over anyway. Unless
you own gold and gold stocks. Then maybe you can enjoy a little
Merlot once in a while. Cheers and go gold.

Thanks, GD OH. Gollum? Right on about Japan and Rubin. Great insight.

Some weeks ago I mentioned that the Starr report would be a
"nothing". The rule being, that when you make your living off the
establishment you do nothing to end the establishment. A few hours
ago there was a post on Red China and the US. In that report it is
mentioned that how can STARR investigate anything when he is representing
the Chinese and their interests.

It's like I said, this is just a circus. Just like the Romans.
You want change? HOW? Every polititian from Clinton to Gore to Gingrige
( sp? ) is on the payrole of the powers that be: The big money and guns
of the world.

Hey, but not to worry. Some one has to fight the Muslems so why not
sacrifice the Chinese? That's the way I see it. We are not stupid and
these people are not traitors. They are just setting WW111 up so Americans can enjoy their beer, popcorn and the internet. That's all
most of us will be able to afford after this is all over anyway. Unless
you own gold and gold stocks. Then maybe you can enjoy a little
Merlot once in a while. Cheers and go gold.

Thanks, GD OH. Gollum? Right on about Japan and Rubin. Great insight.

On CNBC, Jerry Favors expects Dow to rally to about 8100, then move down again and break 7400 ( or was it 7500 ) .

Highhopes

Some weeks ago I mentioned that the Starr report would be a
"nothing". The rule being, that when you make your living off the
establishment you do nothing to end the establishment. A few hours
ago there was a post on Red China and the US. In that report it is
mentioned that how can STARR investigate anything when he is representing
the Chinese and their interests.

It's like I said, this is just a circus. Just like the Romans.
You want change? HOW? Every polititian from Clinton to Gore to Gingrige
( sp? ) is on the payrole of the powers that be: The big money and guns
of the world.

Hey, but not to worry. Some one has to fight the Muslems so why not
sacrifice the Chinese? That's the way I see it. We are not stupid and
these people are not traitors. They are just setting WW111 up so Americans can enjoy their beer, popcorn and the internet. That's all
most of us will be able to afford after this is all over anyway. Unless
you own gold and gold stocks. Then maybe you can enjoy a little
Merlot once in a while. Cheers and go gold.

Thanks, GD OH. Gollum? Right on about Japan and Rubin. Great insight.

From what I've gleaned via media reports. Filegate, Travelgate, Chinagate, Lincoln Bedroom gate, et al are being held in "reserve" by Starr, to be called up on the decision of Congress and Justice if they want to investigate further based on what they have so far.

This is confusing to me... but then, so much is.... like how so many moron's voted for this guy in the first place when it was absolutely crystal CLEAR up front, what kind of character he had.

A bank makes a loan. This loan is created out of nothing from
nothing. The bank does this to collect interest. If the loan is
not paid back, what is the big deal? It can just create another piece of paper to cover that piece of paper. So if billions of loans are
defaulted on so what? It does not cost the bank anything of value.
Except earnings. And "asset value". And stock price. But that is it.

So what is the big deal? The world does not come to an end. The
hard goods ( factories, houses, etc. ) still exist.

Am I right or wrong?

Thanks, GD

DOW 2.36% 7795.50 +179.76 ( a 72% recovery of yesterday's drop )
XAU 0.00% 67.90 +0.00 ( Dja vu )

No way, Jose! I sold my airline long long ago. Now I just sit down here and watch the market go up, ditty, up, up, and down, ditty, down, down.

I have been interested in Vista Gold for quite some time and
have not mentioned it on this site for fear of being accused
of promoting it - they have a good web site with lots of
information it has properties and interests in South America
as well as US

I have seen no indications of insider selling - also has
quite a few mutual funds holding its shares - it has little
or no debt - made a very good move today - cjk

I still can't support Billy's continuation as President, unless.......he immediately decrees a 25% across the board reduction in personal income taxes. Then maybe, just maybe.....yes, I am a reasonable man.

Looks like that DOW suckah fell all the way to plus a hnudred and eighty or so.

I suspect that many of are usual friends here at Kitco are getting their thrills reading the STar Report and are thus abscent.

Don't like the XAU close or golds action with the higher opening ad weak Frdiay close - protends lower prices next week.

If Vabor os Favors say DOW to 8100 I'll be he his right. The market was too oversold to go through the 960 level on the S&P. If we are indeed in a bear we'll need to get up a little higher to ready for a drop through that level.

I covered my SPY short, today. The PEUTZ BEAR post lunar eclipse thing doesn't look like it look into consideration the power of the STARR REPORT. Frankly, I think the report is too narrow - focusing on just Monicagate. Initially, European and Asian markets will yawn, their Monday's will be up, we will follow until it becomes evident that thrid quarter earnings are going to be impacted and the impeachment crisis will debilitate the US government when may cirises are abounding.

Short term: S&P 960 held, relief rally early next week in world markets, gold pulls back probably with the XAU falling as far as 62-64 - then we start again. When the Peutz's and the other bear cyclists have been reputiated by the short term rally and Happy Days are here again the market will start down and gold will try its next assualt on 300.

Gollum, your 00:56 - "best post of the week"

Well, the LOCAL bank makes it from the nothing it gets from the FED. So the local bank is on the hook.

Besides, it HAS to be made a big deal when there is a default or else everyone would lose faith in nothing. That's what makes the fiat work.

Faith.

The same thing that makes the Presidency work.

Monopoly was the big game when I was a kid. Everyone played it.
Kids that is. Now that we are grown up it seems that the banking
system is just a big game of monopoly. Not exactly a game to teach
cooperation, isn't it amazing how childhood games create the
economy of today? This is a big game for the big boys. They are so
involved in the game that they don't realize what they are doing to
others.

The only way out of the box is to join them. Join the big boys.
Figure out what they are up to. Where are they going next?

On this site we think gold etc. is the place. I think we are right.
And being small we can move in and out faster than they can. We can
beat them at their own game. Things are looking up. Go Gold.

Thanks, GD

COMEX metal warehouse stocks - Sep 11


TOTAL STOCKS CHANGE
GOLD 917723 ounces unch
SILVER 77708681 ounces dn 576845
HG COPPER 54256 tons dn 615

I don't have the breakdown for eligible vs registered.

Thank you sir. Just conjecture, but it's hard to conjecture too many other plausible scenarios and still posit that the Japanese leaders are rational.

Whatever it takes...
Rec'd from a German friend, "So you see,that is how it happens!
The trains run on time, and all are happy, yes?"
Frankly, I think we can count ourselves fortunate if Clinton leaves
office when he is due to leave office. Maybe I'm just depressed.
Got a vodka-pickle to share?

COMEX Corrects: Silver Warehouse Stocks

--*COMEX correcting throughout--

New York-Sept. 11-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX
silver warehouse stocks ( Note abbreviations--
R = Registered; E = Eligible; T = Total ) :

SILVER
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
DEPOSITORY
SCOTIA MOCATTA
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
R 3,591,613 0 0 0 0 3,591,613
E 151,024 107,858 0 *107,858 0 258,882
T 3,742,637 107,858 0 *107,858 0 3,850,495

MORGAN GUARANTY
R 16,154,134 0 0 0 0 16,154,134
E 5,542,342 0 0 0 0 5,542,342
T 21,696,476 0 0 0 0 21,696,476

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( New York )
R 23,440,664 0 546,262 -546,262 0 22,894,402
E 21,427,326 0 30,583 -30,583 0 21,396,743
T 44,867,990 0 576,845 -576,845 0 44,291,145

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( Delaware )
R 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 7,870,565 0 0 0 0 7,870,565
T 7,870,565 0 0 0 0 7,870,565

-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL REGISTERED
43,186,411 0 546,262 -546,262 0 42,640,149
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
34,991,257 107,858 30,583 *77,275 0 35,068,532
COMBINED TOTAL
78,177,668 107,858 576,845 *-468,987 0 77,708,681
-------------------------------------------------------------


( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

eligible slightly higher ( 77 k ) , registered removed 1/2 mil oz

Esoteric, obscure ( well, maybe )


Dr. GUI's Bits and Bytes
All Ready for 2000 and the Euro? What About 2038?
First it was Y2K. Then the Euro conversion. And now, as if the Y2K and Euro problems weren't bad enough, there's the year 2038 bug. Dr. GUI got a letter from Mahmoud Saleh alerting him ( reminding him, actually ) of a similar problem that will face C and C++ programmers in coming years: we can call it the Y2.038K bug.

The problem stems from the common definition of the time_t as an integer containing the number of seconds since midnight, January 1, 1970. Most C/C++ runtime libraries define time_t as a long int. On most systems, long int is 32 bits, which means that we've got a range of 2^31-1 ( 2,147,483,647 ) secondsuntil sometime on January 18, 2038. ( Assuming Dr. GUI's Windows CE Palm-size PC has it right, that's a Monday. Figures. )

Since the number is signed, when the clock rolls over the time will be a very large negative number, giving us a time warp of a little over 136 yearswe'll flip back to sometime late in December, 1901. ( Good thing that time_t isn't a 31-bit unsigned number, or it would have been back to the '70s for everyone. You'd have had to get your leisure suits ready 'cuz you'd be catching Boogie Fever and Nixon would be President again. Four more years indeed! )

Anything that uses time_t is also in trouble. That includes the time_b structure ( not commonly used, anyway ) and, very unfortunately, the MFC CTime class. Code that uses time_t, directly or indirectly, will need to be changed sometime before you start dealing with dates after 1/18/2038. ( Note that if your program deals with, say, 40-year bonds, you're in trouble today. )

you may need to be registered? )
http://msdn.microsoft.com/developer/news/drgui/090798.htm

COMEX Corrects: Silver Warehouse Stocks

--*COMEX correcting throughout--

New York-Sept. 11-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX
silver warehouse stocks ( Note abbreviations--
R = Registered; E = Eligible; T = Total ) :

SILVER
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
DEPOSITORY
SCOTIA MOCATTA
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
R 3,591,613 0 0 0 0 3,591,613
E 151,024 107,858 0 *107,858 0 258,882
T 3,742,637 107,858 0 *107,858 0 3,850,495

MORGAN GUARANTY
R 16,154,134 0 0 0 0 16,154,134
E 5,542,342 0 0 0 0 5,542,342
T 21,696,476 0 0 0 0 21,696,476

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( New York )
R 23,440,664 0 546,262 -546,262 0 22,894,402
E 21,427,326 0 30,583 -30,583 0 21,396,743
T 44,867,990 0 576,845 -576,845 0 44,291,145

REPUBLIC NATIONAL ( Delaware )
R 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 7,870,565 0 0 0 0 7,870,565
T 7,870,565 0 0 0 0 7,870,565

-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL REGISTERED
43,186,411 0 546,262 -546,262 0 42,640,149
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
34,991,257 107,858 30,583 *77,275 0 35,068,532
COMBINED TOTAL
78,177,668 107,858 576,845 *-468,987 0 77,708,681
-------------------------------------------------------------


( c ) Copyright 1998 FWN

The 1/2 mil oz drop came from previously reigistered pile, while the new stuff added 77 k oz.

You were right. There WAS a trader's spike up at the end.

http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

What I don't understand is this. How can a regular market event persist that's so predictable that even I can predict it?

I'm in total agreement on the Starr report. It's about as revelatory as a parking ticket. He lied about having an affair. Hey, this is America not France. There you're required to have a mistress whether you want one or not.

Evidence of an imeachable offense? Not yet.

Unless Starr comes up with something really interesting that he hasn't leaked already, then Clinton's gonna do just fine. And the market will relax on this issue. Just in time for the next wave of rumors about big brokerage firms turning turtle.

By the way, I spoke with a hard-core stock market bull pal of mine today. I asked him what he thinks the market's gonna do. You know what he said -- get this -- he said that the market will get hurt by lower Q3 and Q4 earnings. Can you believe that? A market bull who cares about market fundimentals.

I guess things really have changed.

-EJ

Officially, the government still estimates the economy will grow 1.9 percent in the current fiscal year, which ends on March 31. But officials acknowledge that forecast is unattainable.

http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0911/i_ap_0911_79.sml

of Peutz's ridiculous mkt calls. Just by the law of averages one of them will eventually be right on. And that's the one that will be quoted on the jacket of his new book. As for BC, the jerk no doubt actually thought that Monica was attracted to him. His hubris prevented him from even entertaining the possibility of her having ulterior motives...Such as a
$4,000,OOO book deal.

In a way he might be right, about Q3 earnings anyway, they probably WILL hurt the market - - - on top of all it's other hurts.

It's gonna be kinda tough, though, for Q4 earnings to hurt the market. By that time the analyst's will have projected earnings set so low that a lemonade stand will look like the new Microsoft.

Puetz, The 1000 point drop we were supposed to anticipate this week..induced by Lunar events of course, didn't occur. Can we still anticipate 2000 to 4000 points of drop next week, or do we have to wait till Halloween for that now?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.
Ironically, that's the area of my research that's getting
the most attention these days. Dan Ascini ( Elliott Wave
analyst ) , Robert Prechter ( The Elliott Wave Theorist ) ,
Peter Eliades ( Stock Market Cycles ) , and Jim Davidson
( Strategic Investment ) -- all have noted about the Sept.
6th lunar-eclipse, the 6-week topping-pattern, etc. in their
most recent newsletters. All of this has been positive
publicity.

Conversely, my book, "Total Collapse" has gotten a negative
reaction from CNBC anchor, Mark Haines, on friday morning,
Sept. 4th. While "Total Collapse" was written 1 1/2 years
ago, and described in detail the coming global deflation
and financial crash, Haines called the book "mush" -- just
like Joe Kernen's brain. I take it that Haines doesn't
think it's possible to have a global financial melt-down.

2 weeks from now, Haines may view things differently. The
6-week topping pattern is now complete. The lunar-eclipse
has passed. The topping-pattern in 1998 has been far
weaker than similar patterns in 1929 and 1987, suggesting
that the coming 1998 crash will be far worse than either
of those crashes.

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Yuk, having just watched news at ten ( UK ) and the wimpering president of the US of A it occured to me this clown even now could launch a nuke war he has "lawyers" already trying to claim no perjury????????
perhaps it is time to take down the Statue of Libertie??
The clown just does not have the guts to resign and even wants other kids when they grow up to emulate himself!!!!!!!!!!!

can't have any respect for his own offspring.
We even have the uk Hyena P minister blair giving instant support.
The world is in one big mess and rudderless ( leaderess )
What respect can the US of A expect with such a pathetic figure " leading
nuff said

sadly if they ( USA ) don't get rid of him they deserve him

go gold in large amounts
cpo

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this "delusional" thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more "normal". They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-19023

I like your answer. Faith, that's why they pretend it's a big deal
when someone defaults. Otherwise, everyone would decide to....well,
if things get bad enough like in Asia, or Russia....

But it is still true that the factories etc. remain. Just under
new ownership I suppose.

Thanks, GD

Yeah, I guess. It's kind of hard to tell, though. I mean if a CEO of some company get sacked for whatever reason, he generally gets a job as CEO of some other company.

Same group of factories. Same group of owners.

Now, now. Let's not get testy. I use Puetz for ALL my long and intermdiate forecasts. And Golden Prophet/Cheesehead for my short term swing indicators. It would be a shame if we got them all imbarressed and I lost my technical team. So hush.

Remember that even the little boy who cried wolf got it right in the end.

If we are not vaporised accidentally or otherwise during year 2000 we do have 30+ years to prepare and one would hope that better controls may have been introduced

Stay sane concentrate on Y2Kaos

cpo

:{

Never mind, found them. And might as well post them here, since this Puetz is an "expert" analyst of the same caliber as *Fwipe, and these reposts appropriately belong here with him.

Sorry for any redundancy, I know you've been doing an excellent job with this but since you're not around this afternoon.....

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 17:26
LGB ( @ Realistic...re "Lunacy"..... Where are you when I need you??... ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this "delusional" thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more "normal". They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 17:23
LGB ( @ Puetz.... DOW ended up approx. 200 higher on the week. ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Puetz, The 1000 point drop we were supposed to anticipate this week..induced by Lunar events of course, didn't occur. Can we
still anticipate 2000 to 4000 points of drop next week, or do we have to wait till Halloween for that now?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.
Ironically, that's the area of my research that's getting
the most attention these days. Dan Ascini ( Elliott Wave
analyst ) , Robert Prechter ( The Elliott Wave Theorist ) ,
Peter Eliades ( Stock Market Cycles ) , and Jim Davidson
( Strategic Investment ) -- all have noted about the Sept.
6th lunar-eclipse, the 6-week topping-pattern, etc. in their
most recent newsletters. All of this has been positive
publicity.

Conversely, my book, "Total Collapse" has gotten a negative
reaction from CNBC anchor, Mark Haines, on friday morning,
Sept. 4th. While "Total Collapse" was written 1 1/2 years
ago, and described in detail the coming global deflation
and financial crash, Haines called the book "mush" -- just
like Joe Kernen's brain. I take it that Haines doesn't
think it's possible to have a global financial melt-down.

2 weeks from now, Haines may view things differently. The
6-week topping pattern is now complete. The lunar-eclipse
has passed. The topping-pattern in 1998 has been far
weaker than similar patterns in 1929 and 1987, suggesting
that the coming 1998 crash will be far worse than either
of those crashes.

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Agree, attention will turn to brokerage problems and the coming problems between Iran and Afkanistan as noted by Jimmy Rodgers on CNBC. Our rudderless leadership world wide is incapable of dealing with the situations. I think I'll let the DOW go up and down and concentrate on the metals which, if a small pull back doesn't completely fail next week, should be off on a sustainable rally.

Are those silver stocks numbers new all time lows??

Note: Palladium took off over $300 today.

Gollum You said "Remember that even the little boy who cried wolf got it right in the end."

True Gollum, true.... but refresh my memory, didn't he get eaten by the wolf because no one would listen to him after all his false alarms?

The last time gold was this high DROOY was well over $3. Now it is
just over 2 1/2. At first glance this might seem to be bad. But, like
Clinton, let me put a positive spin on this. The situation is really more
bullish than before because the last time people believed the gold rally
and look what happened. It fell back. Now, investors don't trust the
gold move which means that it will continue up. See, even I can put a
good spin on things if I want to.

Eat your heart out Bill.

Thanks, GD

I thought that my spoof regarding a tax break would at least get a rise out of T#1. No such luck. He must have struck a vein of pure golden tequila in the Lost Mine on the Island that is Long, and is happily gulping his favorite "gold" all by his lonesome! yes, greedy gulping.

"I Have Sinned.... ( and fallen shortly thereafter ) "............geeeeeze, what a bum.
A Mighty Gulp and Puff to YA!!! SDRerO.

I agree.
Was hoping to alert others ( who may have missed it ) so that *that* fix could be included now is all.
Thanks & have a good weekend

Well, yes. But it was just that one time.

`They ( the enemies ) thought that they could get Iran to react rashly. They have plotted to make Iran lose its balance psychologically...But we will act according to a well-thought program,'' he said, in remarks carried live on Tehran radio.

Afghan Taleban Say Start Attack On Bamiyan
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19980911/wl/afghan_4.html

The "First Lady" is all over TV kvelling about her husband. While she's speaking, MSNBC has a bulletin underneath reading, "Stock market rallies after release of Starr report". Please, make me sick. Judgement is mine, saith the Lord. Lord, we'll keep waiting.

See my post of 13:46 this afternoon, I already asked him about the 1,000 points in the Dow this week while there were still a couple of hours left in trading.

Also, you asked Puetz if we now have to wait until Halloween for the 2000 to 4000 points drop in the Dow and all I can say is: beware!!!!

Last year's promised Halloween massacre turned into a huge rally in the Dow!!!

Date: Sun Oct 26 1997 22:34
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

A Halloween Massace on Wall Street still looks highly likely. Watch out for October 31st. Once the support at DJIA 7500-7600 is broken, the crash will be confirmed, the panic will start. I believe that could happen tomorrow -- October 27th.

I think he's uh, uh, 25, like most of us here.
Also featured on Prairie Home Companion this coming weekend.
FYI

Mexican officials privately say they are deeply worried about Brazil and fear a crisis there would make Mexico's ''tequila'' crisis look mild in comparison. A sell-off of Brazilian stocks Thursday sparked sharp market downturns throughout the hemisphere.

Economists Fear Mexico-Type Meltdown In Brazil
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0911/i_rt_0911_53.sml

Check the MSNBC site...The salacious details are AMAZING...... The papers tomorrow will be so thick that entire forests will be killed to print them.

Calling Al Gore...global warming caused by Clitton...calling Al gore....

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100l.htm

Gollum: Did you really predict the markets would go up today after scanning the Starr report, or were they already going up?
Notice how the Yen went up over 2% today? Not good for the Long dollar/short Yen crowd. Come to think of it, if the Japanese and AG/RR/PPT were realy working together, AG would not have stated that he might lower rates. If Japan is falling into the brink, why hasn't AG said something to confuse Wallstreet into thinking he might not lower rates after all?
On the other hand, perhaps the PPT was desperatively working today to keep the markets in positive territory, on the assumption that a market rally would keep the dollar bear away.
Also -- notice that South America doesn't really look any better? And oil equities really went up -- probably now overbought.

I think only the day traders can make money out of this market.

Just checked with Lini, regretfully, I will not continue to receive her support if I engage in frequent, exciting oral sex with a college girl. shucks.
Some guys get it all. ;^ ) ~

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=floM0Yls&atmo=floM0Yls&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/98/9/10/wcli310.html&pg=/et/98/9/10/wcli310.html

The above was posted yesterday - well worth reading if my posting of the URL works for you.

made the statement that when we saw two consecutive two dollar UP
days in Gold, this would be the beginning of Gold's rise to 325 ( or
there abouts ) by 11-11. Well, we had a 6.40 UP day, yesterday, and
a 3.00 UP day today. I do believe this is what gogold was looking
for. Now we'll need to hear from this poster for any more comments
and/or additions. GO GOLD! GO SILVER! GO PGM'S! Thanks, Fox-man

I would prefer to hold onto positions rather than in and out, but my little experience with the SPY this week backs up your thoughts about day trading.

Originally sold into the foolish rally over "lower interst rate" I had a couple of opportunities to cover at a good profit but thought the fundlementals would win over and we'd get a pierce of the S&P 96 area. European makets by and large went through their respective early Sept. lows but not the S&P.

Must trade into extremns. Maybe I'll take another shot up at 1050 but think I'll stick to accumulating metal shares.

The Clinton Factor

By Paul E. Erdman, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:38 PM ET Sep 10, 1998
StockWatch


SAN FRANCISCO ( CBS.MW ) -- We're on the edge of a bear market.

Heretofore, we could blame it on everybody else. On
what I have termed a "slow motion external shock."

First it was Thailand. Then Malaysia. Then Korea.
Then Japan. Then Indonesia. Then Russia.

Now it's us who is the enemy. Or more exactly, the
man we elected President of the United States.

Paralysis

We are now almost certain to move toward
impeachment proceedings. This will result in a
paralysis of American leadership, both at home and
abroad.

A failure of leadership in Japan and Russia has had
obvious negative global financial consequences.

Can there be any doubt that what is now happening
in the United States will have a similar harmful impact?

So brace yourself for the consequences of an "internal shock."

Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.52. The 233 day moving average is 28.43

XAU/Spot Ratio = .231

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 20:00
gogold ( When gold up $2 in two days - buy ) ID#430182:
See you at $325 on 11/11

jims: Isn't it sad that even now, the most complete information about what is really happening is coming from outside the USA. The news media are still not fully aware -- just partially.

My guess is what will eventually happen is that very little of the real story will get out, because it is just too scandalous -- the Monica Lewinsky stuff is mild by comparison.

Well, I guess there is some justification for this -- but I hope that the impeachment proceedings move forward regardless. Given the Chesire Cat smile on Kenneth Starr, he was apparently successful in going after WJC without violating his mandate in not digging up all the Mena ARkansas related dirt. Tough job, that.

Did you know that AE-Pritchard ( I'm pretty sure ) was run off by the pro-WJC crowd, and had to return to England? He was anti WJC before it was relatively safe to be so. Fortunately he did not meet the unfortunate end of so many others.

Actually the market was going down at the time.

Greenspan has said in the past that if the economy slowed too much they might lower rates in response. He has also said if it got too strong they might have to raise rates. He has said nothing different now.

Except, that the Fed has changed it's bias from raising rates to more of a neutral stance. In other words, just more wait and see.

Many have chosen to interpret this as an indication that rates would soon be lowered.

The important thing isn't the dollar/yen quit so much as it is the value of US Treasuries. Certainly if the Japaness can get top dollar cashing them in and then pay back their dollar debts with weakened dollars they will have done well.

Turmoil in the markets is 1 ) weakening the dollar and 2 ) prompting more flight into treasuries. Also, the anticipation of rates being lowered is prompting specu;ative interest in bonds as well as departure from the dollar. Whether it helps the equity markets or not is immaterial.

Unlike yesterday, when the long term bond rate was decreasing, today's action saw the rate turning up from 5.17% to 5.22 along with metals. Unless Brazil throws up all over the market next week, I don't think its time to sell on this rally yet.

In just this one section of the Starr report..let alone the rest of it.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/starr/6narrit.htm#L62

jims: I think we non-day traders must wait for a solid gold rally before we will do well again. It does look like we are about there, but all could vanish in a blink of an eye if the 'fiat' currency crowd thinks the US dollar is threatened. Well -- next time I hope that the gold equities will only go down as fast as the general equities -- not faster, IMHO.
Got gold, or a strong non-US, non-German currency?

"gogold" had a strong suspicious feeling that today would complete
the second two dollar UP day. I'm not sure how many bumps we'll
encounter, but it truly is getting exciting to think Gold will
perhaps close above 300 very soon! That's a start! HOTDOG! Fox-man

See my post of 13:46 this afternoon ( Kitco 1 ) , I already asked him about the 1,000 points drop in the Dow this week while there were still a couple of hours left in trading.

Also, you asked Puetz if we now have to wait until Halloween for the 2000 to 4000 points drop in the Dow and all I can say is: beware!!!!

Last year's promised Halloween massacre turned into a huge rally in the Dow!!!

Date: Sun Oct 26 1997 22:34
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

A Halloween Massace on Wall Street still looks highly likely. Watch out for October 31st. Once the support at DJIA 7500-7600 is broken, the crash will be confirmed, the panic will start. I believe that could happen tomorrow -- October 27th.

I hate to overdose on my inability to understand whether low or high rates will best serve gold, but my look at Kaplan's comment prompts me to ask again. Do you gentlemen disagree with him on the following:

"INTEREST RATE CUT?--Should the Fed decide to lower short-term interest rates, this might produce a short-term bounce in the stock market, but the real beneficiary will be those investments which benefit from a lower opportunity cost of money. Since the dollar will surely decline if short-term rates are cut, as short-term time deposits become less lucrative, gold and other commodities will be the real winners."

As I maintained last night, gold should flourish when real interest rates are negative. Then I yielded to both of you, but today I'm still not sure. Any help for me on this matter?

We're not there yet.

Chaotic events have rumpled our maps a bit but not too awfully badly:

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc003.htm

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

For not having the patience to allow his submission to post.
Even when he could've gone for a twelve-minute cup of coffee.
Uninterrupted string of THIRTEEN POSTS between 11:17 and 11:28!
No wonder that no one else could have posted during that time.
Let's see if I can break his record - by clicking and clicking
and clicking - as fast as I can without letting Kitco catch up.

It doesn't have enough pictures.

Gollum:

Perhaps this has already been noted, but ANOTHER seems to have recently suggested that we should be expecting higher interest rates. On 9/3/98 he posted:

" Events, "to defend a falling dollar", "in the form of rising
interest rates", will show this as the currency soon to lose the backing of gold."

Not what the current "conventional wisdom" advocates are convinced of, but he has never been in their camp, anyway. We certainly have seen a big hit on the dollar recently. The Spanish peseta is up by 10 pesetas per dollar since August 26. Until just today, the dollar was falling continually minute my minute. It's been quite a show, so far.

Yahoo quotes has an error. Last trade was 7/32, not $1.00.

Indeedy, negative real rates are good for gold, if a higher cost in weakened dollars can be said to be good.

Witness the reverse: Many years of high real interest rates to uphold a strong dollar accompanied by just as many years of declining dollar price of gold.

No surprises...didn't that used to be the motto of the Holiday Inn?
I stayed there a number of times and NEVER, EVER got the kind of treatment that BC got. I guess that's why they call him the head of state.

BTW Grizz, was that really necessary? Why make the rest of us suffer?

I have seen that.

Big problems require grand plans.

The most important commodity to western civilization? Oil.

The hardest real asset in the central banks? Gold.

The biggest problem in Japan? Liquifying US tresuries to save the bank.

The biggest problem to emerging economies? The strong dollar.

Current weapon of choice? Interest rates and innuendo.

Gold has been pretty impressive the last couple of days. However, wholesale prices apparently dropped in August, the euhporia over the Starr report and profit-taking may drive our favorite metal down a couple of bucks on Monday. I've read a little of the Starr report. WJC should be ashamed to show his face, much less attempt to retain his job. I was just speculating today what would happen to me if I was off the reception room doing those things with our young nubile receptionist. If that came to light the first thing that would happen is my law partners would oust my lousy hide fearing a sexual harrassment law suit. The second would be that I would be singing falsetto after my wife found out. And everyone knows that we attorneys are not held up to the standard the president should maintain. I'm stymied by it all.

http://www.winchester.com/products/index.html
Coincidence - with the Starr report?
Or are patriots and soon to be patriots looking to stock up?
But Remington is loading fine
http://www.remington.com/ammo/pages/ammofr.htm

I wonder how the esteemed members of congress feel about the Prez talking to them whilst simultaneously giving the word congress a new meaning. This reads much like a Harold Robbins novel. The US will either impeach or have an extremely lame duck for two years. I believe the latter, as the public has a notoriously short memory and will soon be back to bread and butter issues. The Republicans are better served by a weak Prez than a new Prez on his honeymoon at the next election. All MVHO.

they could have released Starrs rpt on CD, full multi-media, photos, film clips and sound, they could have made some cash.
Kennedy: Camelot
clinton: came a lot

sold abx ggo hm in anticipation of creepy incidious producer sales
from Oz and SAfrica, back in sometime... play any stocks in here as a
trader until gold gets convincingly over $300; a down stock day with
weak gold prices equals weak gold stock prices, in a crash with flat
gold prices all stocks get sold, liquidity crunch.

Most of the most here have shown admirable restraint.
I confess to a fit of temper when I encountered the second string
of Mapleman's posts. At 00:10 he only mustered six in a row.

BTW - Clinton has forever degraded the words "apologize" and "sorry"

Your post from 00:47. Love the Sig 45, but at 50 meters ( 165 feet ) , I don't think so. Maybe 50 feet. Sooner an AK at 50 meters!

just when you gave up on the mighty rangitO....BOOM!!!!...up 5%!!! ohmy! Isure and I together have more shares than kebble. And what does that say of us???? duh.

I AM MAN! I AM NOT A CIGAR! Here me roooooooar!!! ( squeak ) I AM NOT A PICKLE! the poor, poor pickleo...ohmy! I never did like Helen Never-Reddy anyhoooooo, ROOOAR!!!! CUBA LIBRE IN HAND!!! SALUD TO ALL GOLDBUGS!! GULPO!!!

Thatcher had the good grace to step down quickly and without fanfare when she lost the confidence of her party. Alas, we here in the States make this difficult for our supreme leader. Anyway, it's hard to imagine Thatcher stepping down for similar reasons.
-EJ

XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-09-11
ABX-Barrick Gold-------CLOSED AT $17.8750 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.23
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $07.1250 -0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.11
BMG-Battle Mountain--CLOSED AT $05.5625 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.51
CDE-Coeur D'Alene---CLOSED AT $05.6875 -0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
FCX-Freeport Mc-----CLOSED AT $13.4375 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.07
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $14.2500 -0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.08
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.3125 -0.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.04
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $11.8125 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.04
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $20.5625 -0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.19
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $12.3750 0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.36

XAU CLOSED AT 67.9 0

*** I'm at a loss today as to why so many XAU mining stocks went down when POG went up? Maybe they're trying to keep the XAU index down as this would attract much attention. Any explanations out there would be appreciated...thx ***

THE OSX ( OIL SERICE INDESX ) SOARED 7% TODAY EVEN AS OIL DROPPED 2%. CAN ANYONE IMAGINE THE XAU JUMPING 7% ON A DAY WHEN POG DROPS SIX BUCKS? ENOUGH SAID.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG CHANGING HIS TUNE.NOW EXPECTS MAJOR G7 REFLATIONARY MOVES WIHIN A YEAR OR TWO.




Crash of 1998
Is it Over?
Or Just Beginning?

By Martin A. Armstrong
Copyright September 9th, 1998
Princeton Economic Institute


Previous Postings
Great Financial Panics In History




There was a sigh of relief yesterday when the markets
rebounded sharply. So many began to tout what stock should be
bought right away that the Fed is thinking about lower interest
rates instead of keeping its tight monetary policy. "Its only a
correction" hailed many as they emerged from the dark alleys
and basements to which they sought refuge. Others were quick
to proclaim that Japans 50% drop in interest rates from .5% to
.25% marked the beginning of a concerted effort by several
nations to respond to the crisis in the financial markets and now
we should expect rate cuts from the US and Germany.
Unfortunately, when we push aside the superficial analysis,
hopes, dreams and sheer desperate expectations, the truth may
be far from the salutations and praise.

To begin with, the rate cut in Japan is EXTREMELY BEARISH
and in NO way should this be construed as a bullish move for
the marketplace worldwide. For some time now, Japan has been
printing yen notes like there is no tomorrow. They have even
been reported as lending this cash to the banks at 0% interest.
The rate cut of 50% will have a severely NEGATIVE impact
upon the whole economy in Japan with the sole exception of the
banking industry. This rate cut has merely increased the credit
crunch that is expanding in Japan as banks refuse to lend money
to any small to medium size firm while tightening the reins on
major multinationals as well. This sudden and drastic 50% rate
cut will have a major impact upon pension funds and
corporates. We now find a sharp increase in corporate bond
issues in Japan as companies fear that they could face a
worsening credit crunch. In effect, this interest rate cut may in
fact now seal the fate of a capital flight from Japan for next year
and indeed may fulfill our long-term forecasts for the
dollar/yen.

The policies in Japan are dangerously pushing the nation to the
brink of massive deflation. We are becoming quite concerned
that the losses within the Japanese banking system are massive
and amount to at least 5 times or more than that of the US S&L
Crisis. The general feeling from our Japanese sources is that the
stimulus package will have no effect whatsoever upon the
market over the next few weeks. If there is no lift, as we
suspect, the government may collapse and a full general election
called. Ultimately, we believe that the only course of action for
Japan will be to monetize this entire problem. Our concern is
that the longer this situation continues the greater overall
damage to the non-banking sectors. Still, this interest rate cut
reflects the stubbornness of the government, which still refuses
to look at tax cuts. At this point, no amount of stimulus package
will reverse the Japanese economy. The average Japanese is
now frightened to see big banks and companies go down, which
threaten' their traditional lifetime employment. This shocking
social change in Japan, combined with persistent rumors of
banks failures, means that no degree of stimulus package will
have an effect upon the consumer until he feels confidence once
again. Cutting the interest rate on what savings he now has will
either cause the consumer to hoard his cash or export it to the
United States.

The Russian crisis has still yet to show its full impact upon the
world economy. Again, it is not trade that we should be
concerned about but capital. The staggering losses taken by
both banks and hedge funds has indeed caused havoc worldwide
as both participants withdraw or sell off positions everywhere.
We have seen the Nikkei rally on the bank hedge fund covering
their shorts. We have seen the HK$ forward move sharply as
liquidation orders came in from around the globe. We have seen
metals collapse as Russian sales have included anything that is
not nailed down. We have seen Latin American markets under
siege and even the precious ERM pushed on Finland and
Greece. Talk is now staring to surface about the postponement
of the Euro as the Italian lira dropped causing intervention.

The world is still NOT a very friendly place for capital these
days. We have little doubt that the Euro will go through January
because this too is being orchestrated by politicians and not
investors or economists. However, we do believe that the
announced relationship between the currencies within the Euro
will be revised by year-end perhaps on the last day. If this does
NOT take place, kiss the Euro goodbye because the differentials
between economies cannot possibly converge by January 1st,
1999. This will take even longer than the proposed transition of
4 years into 2002. The failure of the politicians in Europe to
recognize the danger of diverting economies will only set the
stage for the Euro to blow up in a similar manner as the fixed
exchange rate mechanisms in South East Asia where pegs to the
dollar failed. In the case of the Euro, it will be the peg of each
currency to the Dmark that is now showing great stress.

It is of great concern that despite Allan Greenspan?s excellent
grasp of history and respect for what took place during the
Great Depression, we may not be able to avoid a repeat of
history. However, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES are we
expecting a Great Depression in the sense of a 90% decline in
the equity markets. Those days were quite different insofar as
the world operated on a gold standard. If you didn?t have the
gold, you defaulted. Today, we see that while the economic
problems are similar to that of the Great Depression, the
outcome is likely to be quite different involving a monetization
as opposed to default. In other words, no major Western or
Japan will announce to their public that they are defaulting on
all welfare or social contracts. It is far more likely that they will
attempt to monetize their way out and/or issue government
bonds. The fact that Greenspan has hinted that he would cut
rates "if necessary" suggests that indeed the world is looking at
the possibility of monetization.

For this reason, we remain skeptical that even though our
Economic Confidence Model has turned down into 2002.85,
there may come a point by the half-cycle interval of 2000.70
( September 12th, 2000 ) that we actually see an intentional
inflationary move that ultimately turns share back up!
Immediately, many will say that we have totally lost it because
stocks rise when inflation is low. In fact, the opposite is
correct. Stocks rallied out of the 1932 low because people
believed that Roosevelt would confiscate gold and devalue the
dollar. That belief was correct. Roosevelt devalued the dollar by
69% in 1934 and stocks rallied into 1937. If you look at what
has just happened in Malaysia, you see what stocks do when the
currency is devalued. In this case, Malaysia has made its
currency worthless in international circles. Under such
conditions, how does one protect himself? The answer
historically has been to purchase TANGIBLE assets. While
some would like to argue that gold is the answer, this is simply
NOT true! Yes, gold is ONE vehicle but NOT the only one!
During the inflationary period of Germany, people sought to get
rid of their currency for anything tangible as well as food.
Thus, good shares have also acted as hedges against inflation
because their assets rise in proportion to the devaluation of the
currency. We also saw this take place in the UK following the
pounds withdrawal from the ERM when the FT100 moved
higher in direct proportion to the percentage decline in the
currency.

While there is little doubt that a breach of last weeks low in
Europe and US share markets will cause a second decline of
30-40% ( from major high ) , please refer to our daily reports for
specific timing and price levels. The overall prospects remain
pointing to a bear market moving into at least next year and
possibly into 2000 before a change in trend materializes. We
still see a further collapse in Russia and a major disruption in
both Eastern Europe and Latin America before this event is
over. We also see a Clinton resignation as inevitable along with
a defeat of Kohl in Germany and a collapse in the Obuchi
government in Japan. Those looking for someone to pull a
rabbit out of the hat should not look to the Fed. While lowering
interest rates by the Fed will help to reduce perhaps the
magnitude of the overall decline  it will NOT reverse the trend
back to new highs and prosperity for all!



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You're right. WJC should be ashamed. I saw him speak today.

YOU COULD TELL FROM LOOKING AT HIM THAT THE GUY JUST DOES'T CARE WHAT HE DID!!!

This president is truly a disgrace to the American people. I truly feel sorry the the US citizens because they're the ones who are most hurt and most don't realize fully yet.

Thanks for the XAU run down - I'm at a loss how the XAU was unchanged when all but one of the issues was down.

The pull back in XAU is understandable as it has outperfomred the metal. However, these higher opeinings after a run ( in the XAU case ) follwed by weak close seem to lead to one, two days of weakness. There's a lot of run on the downside for that in the XAU - maybe all the way to 60 or max 15%. Have to buy this break if you think the market has turned. Will it hold, will it be follwed by a new leg up. ????

Curious as you are about the XAU numbers - perhaps they are bids not closes??

Remember I'm in the speech recognition biz. The darkest imagination cannot conceive some of the applications for this technology now in use by governments. Lawmakers can't even understand it, never mind make laws to protect privacy. By the time they do... too late. New technology.

Hint: if I say the word "Gollum" in a telephone conversation a speaker-independent continuous speech recognition system can pick out that word and log it in a db. If the threshold of occurances of the keyword is reached... you get the idea.
-EJ

I may be dizzy for the rest of my days. The First Pervert has dragged this Country thru the mud for the last eight months. We spent millions of dollars to break thru the stone wall that we spent millions to build. He becomes more and more contrite as he continues to lie and cover up. And the news heads and politicians continue to argue if there's anything really that serious here. We should save ourselves a lot of money and allow all non violent criminals to appoligize and go home and certinly reinstate all military that have been less than honorably discharged for adultry.
I'm sorry that this is unrelated to today's gold price but I needed to vent.

Man. Starr's report is bust. I can't imagine that Congress will
pursue impeachment. It sounds more like Monica set him up, and
then tried to blackmail him for a job. Damn that guy. Clinton
gets another free ride. ARGGGHH.

I really do not understand half the postings about Japan's rate
cut. I mean, it's not like it wasn't expected. Look, it's right
here

( Total Debt ) X ( Average Interest Rate ) = Konstant

In other words, to maintain the building debt bubble, without
cutting into real consumer spending, the total amount being
paid in interest on debt must remain roughly constant. The
Japanese know this, Greenspan knows it. And, theoretically,
they *could* keep the bubble going indefinitely. After all,
this is not a linear function. : )

Ultimately, it will pop when "investors" are no longer willing
to accept an ever-decreasing return on their money. In real
terms, the NYSE is returning something like 1% now.

In spite of that, I bought five eagles yesterday, dog gone it.

I *finally* am making money again, for real.

I still think AG and Japan can keep it going for another year,
and then blame it on Y2K. The real problem is that, due to
differences in total debt loads, and differences in the rates
at which those debt loads are increasing, it's getting harder
and harder to keep the rate of currency depreciation matched
between the various countries. If everyone were depreciating
at the same rate, there'd be virtually no changes between
currencies.

I just plucked this out of a Fleck's web site.....

Gold shines... We saw a huge move in gold this morning as it traded briefly at the $300 level on the December futures contract. After being up about $7, it pulled back to finish $3 higher. We will have to see if this ends the first part of the rally, or if it will rest and then go higher. Somewhere along the line there is going to be a violent pullback, so that everyone who has enjoyed this nice run will be scared out of it.

Thanks for the heads-up on Leo...been at little league games all afternoon...plum wore out...to the back yard and a few gallons of suds and some more shots...whew...them thar littles are tuff!!!

After the recent Mapleman debacle which prompted the Grizz counteroffensive, I think it's important to remember that we each bring a little something to Kitco. Some bring great insight into the metal markets. Others post detailed analyses of the world's financial condition. Still others post wildly ( and frequently! ) about the upcoming Dow meltdown. As for myself, I bring unrelenting Y2K doom-and-gloom and a general "malaise", as ex-prez Carter would say. But I also bring something else. I have never, EVER, double posted. Not once. Nada. Why? Because I have my mouse in "semi-auto" mode. Mapleman, please check yours. That little lever has probably been mistakenly flipped to "full-auto". ;- )
Now on to the my market predictions. The Dow will go down. Gold will go up. My 'stang will go fast. And Clinton will go home. Hmmm.... wait a minute, this is all GOOD news! Dang. Better pop over to Scary Gary's to read about the impending collapse of society in 16 months. That ought to cheer me up.

pro-Clinton ...for a while,he started to hear stuff about Little Rock so as any good reporter he went there to sniff around...the rest of the story is now well known.....

Everything that is happening in Washington and the World
and it only musters a few dollars.
But given the last year's performance - it is better than going down.

CRUISE MISSILES will be launched this weekend.
How much you want to bet? Could Billy Boy be that stupid or desperate?
Which country is going to be the whipping boy this time?
A factory or two won't be enough to distract us this time.
Maybe he will invade Iraq.
And terrorists will respond with nukes and gas on the East Coast.
Why do you think he spends so much time outside of Washington?
Look for a trip out West when the crap hits the fan in DC.
and I ain't talking sex scandals.
Got Dosimeters?

Indicates I oughta dump my neg S&P derivative RYUDX after Oct. @ 7200.

But events are becoming discontiguous. Every day is a new day. Now more than ever wish I had tomorrow's newspaper.

The machine does not stop on a dime.
-EJ

Great mind, but his best calls have been reverse - when he was out bearish on silver it bottomed at 4.95 then again at 4.65

I noted that the volume in ABX was 4M shares today on the NYSE alone, when the daily avg is about 1M. Someone did a lot of selling. Hope they get burned. That's a lot share shares traded, about 1% of the total shares outstanding. ABX has 375.5M O/S. So more than 1% of ABX traded today!!

The poor XAU performance could be due to profit taking, traders not holding for the long term. This could be very bullish if the guys who bought today hold AND DON'T sell!!!!!!

I know how to caluculate the XAU index accurately but I indicate each stock's contribution to the XAU as an estimate cause I don't know EXACTLY the outstanding shares of each stock. I have accurate O/S share for some stocks but not for others. The formula uses market cap = shares/os x market price per share.

P.S. I pluck the closing prices off of YAHOO quotes, they're not bids but actual closing prices.

Sorry for the bad link. It seems that the site somehow prevents a simple cut and paste of its links.

http://www.edata.co.za/edata.html

I guess you'll have to navigate thru the maze to get there : ( or just and paste the one below back together.

http://www.edata.co.za/scripts/
edata2.dll?pagename=EdFactSheet&coid=RNG

The one in particular that I was referring to is titled:
RANDGOLD - PRELIMINARY REPORT
30 Apr 1998

This will probably come out a mess, but I'll try cut and pasting below.

MARKET
VALUE
31 MARCH
UNITS PER CENT 1998
DESCRIPTION HELD HELD R000
LISTED INVESTMENTS
DRD 5 347 778 13.7 63 104
DRD PREFERRED ORDINARIES 646 600 25.2 7 759
DRD OPTIONS 441 800 16.7 2 209
DRD "B" OPTIONS 2 201 378 24.6 2 972
HARMONY 2 165 818 4.8 37 360
HARMONY OPTIONS 4 389 727 60.1 10 974
KNIGHTS 21 895 100 8.3 5 474
KELGRAN LIMITED 1 893 580 2.2 1 326
BENGUELA CONCESSIONS 75 214 0.1 102

CROWN CONSOLIDATED 25 939 529 50.6 32 424
RANDGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED 11 253 062 56.8 318 676
482 380
OTHER ASSETS 146 261
LIABILITIES ( 304 656 )
NET ASSETS 323 985
SHARES IN ISSUE ( FULLY DILUTED ) 000 41 388
NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE ( CENTS ) 783

NOTE:THE NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE ( CENTS ) AT24 APRIL 1998 WAS 1 111.

Full auto is a terrible waste of ammo and bandwidth.
Even semi-auto can burn through it too fast and disturb the neighbors.
A scoped bolt-action 30-06 with boat-tail light magnum hollow-points
with focused, precision fire only needs one good shot to do the job.
http://www.jgsales.com/jghornady.html

If GOLD does not break over $300 next week by several dollars
especially if Clinton makes war while economies melt down -
we may as well pick up our marbles and go home
to buy beef stew, TVP and TP instead.

I would have bet there was something other than Mouthica in the report...I can't figure it...just can't figure it...heading into storms without a rudder ain't my idea of fun...go gold...squeak...

One more thing I just realized. Flectenstein in a way may be right. Using his line of reasoning in the POG, perhaps the XAU held today despite a rise in the POG in order to scare investors into selling into a short lived rally.

IF YOU READ BETWEEN THE LINES, FLECKENSTEIN ***KNOWS*** THE POG IS BEING MANIUPULATED!!!!!

For those who missed it, this link is owrking pretty well and pretty fast.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/starr/6narrit.htm#L62

Makes for a nauseating read...but nothing in it surprises me.
This sleaze and his sleazy, apologist, disgraceful supporters are the
most corrupt bunch of embarrasments to grace modern politics in this country.

LGB

you need to click on forum
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/

I saw your repost of the Armstrong piece.
What happened to his $200. gold?
He goes on about tangibles, etc.
How's this for dopey logic? "During the inflationary period in Germany people sought to get rid of currency for anything tangible, as well as food."
I see that there are still some Germans left.
It's a good thing that the peopleo of inflationary Germany had the good sense to exchange their depreciating currency for tangible food.
Of course, those who had even a small gold stash were far better off
than the rest.
The argument about equities is disingenuous also. The shareholders of businesses that didn't go bankrupt were better off than the people that had none of this or gold. But in a situation such as hyperinflation, the guy with the gold calls the tune.
Anyway, I see this as a vast divergence from his last stuff. Got Consistency?

The market lurched up at the weakness of the Starr report. Expectations were set way too high.

Starr thinks the country cares about sex. He made a mistake. No man can fail to understand why another man would lie about an extra-marital affair. Duh. Starr cares about sex, apparently. Maybe he's not getting any?

The market laughed it off and went on their merry way.

But can Starr really be that stupid? Maybe he has something else up his sleeve...

-EJ

Try these XAU closes - the same - have to go - next week will prove as interesting I'm sure. I see up stocks down XAU and metals in the first few days then a reverse that takes XAU and gold to new recovery highs . . I hope.

Hey, when is domebody going to post the URL to the sordid stuff . . . just kidding. - kinda

Happy weekend

go GOld, silver and PGMs
Got you, want more at lower prices.

It's not that Starr is stupid. It's just that there's a double standard, one for ( Democrats or the President ) and ( the rest of us ) .

Look at what happened to Clarence Thomas. If what they did to Clarence was justified, then WJC in comparison should be hanged. ( By the Balls of course )

There always has been too many dogs shot...when it should have been one bitch.

The Starr investigation cost 50 million. Your unfortunate bogus cruise missile attack of a couple weeks ago, to take our minds off it, cost double that.

Now the Starr report is out for all to read...and yet it only scratches the surface of what you're really all about. My guess is this is just a beginning of your full "exposure".

I hear there are some baby milk factories in Ethiopia that are a major threat to U.S. security. You better check into that soon....

The XAU, as everybody here knows is a larger cap index. Some of the midcaps have done far better than the ABX'es. TVX, KGC, and others have made some astonishing moves in the past week.

I sold most of my ABX that I had left and put all of that into Anglogold. The Homestake went to smaller SA stocks.

I am tired of the hype of ABX on their low cash cost mines, that never pay a dividend. Also they have such low volatility coming off lows.

As John Disney has said, the SA's will be coming out with phenomenal numbers ( for this gold price ) in the third and fourth quarters.

A good site for those that follow SA miners is

http://www.bullion.org.za/

the South African Chamber of Mines.

The quarterlies and dividend info is there on PDF, and the site works very well compared to six months ago.

How to lower the dollar to save submerging economies to save their key export market ( USA ) without tanking the US markets. Hmmmmm. Catch 22.

This one's gonna take a really big plan and careful timing.

Just in case a pack of very, very smart well-trained and high-paid humans with a huge stake in the outcome somehow fails at this effort, I do have, I will admit, a fair supply of gold and silver.
-EJ

only say that Starr better have something up his sleeve...but then again all we have seen so far is 4-5 hundred pages...something is rotten somewhere...caught Clintler at the breakfast or whatever it was with various clergy....the boy has no shame...none...none what so ever...

BBL out to tell stories to the littles...great game today...5 to 3...they lost but held their heads high...yowser!

Full storyGold backtracks, off highest for 1-1/2 months
11:28 a.m. Sep 11, 1998 Eastern

By Martin Hayes

LONDON, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - Gold bullion prices endured a roller-coaster day on Friday, hitting 1-1/2 month highs before getting caught up in the turbulence from U.S. President Bill Clinton's problems, traders said.

At one stage spot gold reached highs above $296.00 an ounce, but within 30 minutes prices shed some $3.00 in active trading. It was fixed at $293.35 an ounce this afternoon in London, down $0.40 from the morning 1-1/2 month high, but still up from Thursday's close of $290.20/$290.70.

``We had a look at the $300.00 level ( New York December futures ) . It failed, and then there was trade selling and some fund profit-taking,'' a trader said.

There was also the volatility in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones index staging a surging rally, jumping 100 points after Clinton apologised to Monica Lewinsky in a national prayer breakfast on Friday.

Traders said the knee-jerk reaction in gold, which fell sharply when the Dow climbed, underlined the market's volatility to wider financial movements.

With all markets on tenterhooks over the expected release of independent counsel Kenneth Starr's report on the Clinton sex scandal, many gold market players opted to square positions ahead of the weekend.

The turmoil in other markets meant news the Czech central bank has sold 31 tonnes of gold this past week did not influence the bullion market unduly. Nor did the Bank of France stating it had no plans to sell any gold in future.

``We have no intention to sell gold and this seems to be the policy of the main official gold-holders,'' Herve Ferhani, Bank of France director of foreign exchange told a Gold Fields Minerals Services seminar.

Maquarie Equities Ltd precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi said the Czech tonnage was pretty small.

``The tonnage is relatively small and is unlikely to have a disastrous effect on prices. The concern now is that there may be other emerging countries that may sell gold,'' Naqvi said.

Gold's wide price moves today suggested investors were looking at gold as a 'safe haven' as falling stock markets and volatile currencies move out of favour, analysts said.

``There has been short-covering this morning, some of it distressed to lock in profits to mitigate against losses in other sectors,'' analyst Rhona O'Connell of stockbroker T.Hoare and Co said.

Some modest sales were also seen from producers, which traders said was not surprising given that the market has risen from levels around $270.00 in late August.

``Miners who thought that the end of the world was nigh at $270 are selling a little now,'' a trader said.

However, the dollar's decline means that incentives for major South African, Canadian and Australia producer sales are fewer today, O'Connell noted.

``There are the concerns over Clinton, such as impeachment and resignation possibly,'' she said.

But even if this happens it is unlikely to draw a line under U.S. political pain as there are investigatory rumblings over Vice-President Al Gore, who could be a lame-duck President if he succeeded Clinton, analysts said.

So bullion markets may benefit from safe-haven buying as stocks and currencies look less enticing. Traders said the market's next target was the $300 an ounce level last seen in May 1998, although a period of consolidation seems likely in the short-term.

``We have had a $25 move in two weeks - nothing goes up in a straight line,'' O'Connell said.

In other precious metals markets, spot silver ran into resistance at $5.10/$5.15 an ounce and eased to $5.00/$5.03. Platinum dipped to $362.00/$364.00 an ounce but palladium pushed up to $290.00/$300.00.

( ( London newsroom, 44 171 542 8080, fax 44 171 542 8077, london.commodities.desk+reuters.com ) )

http://www.patriottrading.com/headline_links.html

Tantalus Rex, Clarence Thomas is a a-hole, abusing power for sexual gratification. Clinton's is a sad case. He was clearly looking for comfort from a woman to ease feelings of weakness and sorrow -- the presures of his job, absence of contact with his wife. No evidence of malice. Clinton inspires compassion in this respect.

A man sometimes looks for positions of power to prove his strength. To whom? Why did Clinton and FDR and JFK take on the job and look to women for comfort at times of stress?

I am thankful that any man has the weakness necessary to inspire them to take on such responsibilities to prove their worth, and I expect the correlary neurotic behavior.

skinny, Tip: women do not control men. Men are controlled by women.
-EJ

Sep. 11, 1998 - Spot Gold - $293 up $3 - Spot Silver - $5.02 down 2.5 cents

Technicals -

GUNS OF NAVARONE SILENCED. Gregory Peck, David Niven, Anthony Quinn and James Darren led a ferocious, bullish assault and wiped out the heavy resistance at $290 basis Dec. Both yesterday's and today's charge was on heavy volume, sending the bears scrambling into the woods. Sniper activity and reinforcements slowed us bulls down around $300 basis Dec., but that is to be expected, as it is a natural regrouping point for the bears. The big picture is extremely bullish, but it would be only natural for a bear counter attack to develop which could slow down the advance. Support is now the $290 area basis Dec. Our objective is to take out $315 basis spot . I expect to see $400 an ounce within a year.

There are some significant technical aspects to point out: 1 ) the open interest on the Comex only went down 755 contracts yesterday. In the past it might have dropped 10,000 contracts on a $6 up move in gold like we had Thursday. For sure, many of the shorts that we spoke of in recent Midas commentary covered. The fact that the open interest was down so little, means the market has attracted new buyers which is critical for a sustained up move. Over the past two years, in situations like this, the shorts would cover, the open interest would drop sharply, selling would show up to stop any rallies, new buying was nowhere to be seen, and the gold price would drop again. 2 ) On the way down from $400 the past two years, gold constantly came in on the weak side after the first European session. It was rare for the market to show early strength. Our reasoning for that was that central banks were constantly selling gold at the early fix. The past week we have been gapping up quite a bit. The technical advisor to the Dutch CB ( who we believe have been a big sellers of bullion for a long time ) told an associate that he expected a big rally in September ( I heard this in late July ) . Now why would he say that? The only reason that makes sense to me then is that he knew the Dutch had a timetable and they would be done selling by early September. Hence less selling pressure in the European sessions and all of a sudden we have some solid, gap up openings.

Silver was slammed at times today as the $5.00 area is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Only a matter of time. Must have had some long term - long silver/short gold spreads unwound today. This kept silver on the defensive most of the day. One other point. Over the years I have noted that silver does its own thing. It goes when silver wants to go. It is like a stubborn mule. Rarely does it hold gains, or move, because of outside influences. Today was no exception.

Fundamentals -

Well we may know who was firing those guns at Navarone. The Czech Central Bank was one for sure as they announced that it sold 31 tonnes of gold last week from its reserves. This is the second evidence in a week that our long held view that European central banks were bombing the gold market may be right on target. I said in the last Midas ( after the Luxembourg announcement ) there was more to come. That was quick. In addition, our sources tell us a South African gold producer also put on a 100 tonne hedge around the $290 area. So who bought all that gold? Maybe our Barrick story was on the money.

Now for the good news. From Herve Ferhani, Bank of France director of foreign exchange, "We have no intention to sell gold and this seems to be the policy of the main official gold-holders". Ferhani said any European central bank that might have wished to sell gold, probably already had done so. This is very important stuff and might confirm exactly what we have been talking about in recent Midas commentary. These guys ( Dutch, Germans, French, etc ) are all going to be on the same team soon. They know what the other central banks are doing. These guys generally don't speak like this unless they know what is going on and want to convey a message to the market place. This was not a loose cannon statement. This is more confirmation that the big, dead weight noose has been lifted from around the neck of the gold market. Again, as we said in the last Midas, Peter Monk of Barrick Gold is very well informed and probably would know of this. Thus a decision to cover hedges makes total sense.

Those of you that have followed our commentary know that when the yen was trading around 145 to 146 and the world was bearish on its prospects, we said to look for an ambush on the dollar and we thought we would see 125 before 150. Soon thereafter the intervention occurred. With a close today of 130.65, that prediction looks better and better. It is an important one for gold because Asia is the demand engine for physical gold, and as gold is priced in dollars; a cheaper dollar means cheaper gold over there. That stimulates demand.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

The psychology about gold is critical. To own it or not to own it. Tis the question. Until last week, it was at the bottom of the totem poll for money managers. Many did even want to have any gold stocks on their books. "You earn no interest, so why hold it", was the talk of many investors. Gold had few friends and was viewed by many like a rotten kid. Gold psychology was bad.

Now in a very short period of time: the dollar has swooned, the stock markets around the world are reeling, some of the smartest Wall Street hedge brains have lost half, to all, to more than all of their money, and there are crises of confidence everywhere. The new paradigm is in big trouble. The old stand by, gold ( bastion of confidence for 6,000 years ) does not look so repulsive now. Maybe he wasn't as bad a kid as so many thought.

This move up in the price of gold is nice, but it is only the beginning. The psychology about holding gold as a preserver of wealth and and as an investment is turning, but we need it to continue. The name of the game these days with such great communication flows around the world is momentum. We have some now and it must gather steam. That fact that the CRB was down today, silver was down, the stock market was up and gold could still hold on to a $3 gain after a $6 run up, maybe a sign that gold as money, or gold as a good investment, is starting to show signs of life once more.

If that is happening, as I suspect it is, the whole psychology about owning gold and gold shares could change very quickly. We will have the next gold rush and I personally think that time is close at hand. The talk will again be about pandas, maple leafs, and "what is your favorite gold stock"" will be cocktail party conversation again. I can't believe I said that. Maybe I should pinch myself.

The XAU closed today at 67.90 which was unchanged. It has had a run up from about 48 a short time ago - which is almost a 50% move.

Last week I was asked which of the gold shares I liked ( we will get in to that soon in future Midas commentar\ies ) . I posted in another forum that I thought the fastest mover up in the short term, and one of the gold companies that I liked most, was Canarc Resource Corp. At the time it was around 15 cents Cdn. Today it went all the way up to 45 cents before settling at 32 cents Cdn. In the Sep. 9 Midas I said " Priced at, or near, bankruptcy levels, many ( small and junior golds ) will double and triple in the near term and the real quality ones will go up some 50 to 80 times in the years to come". Canarc has doubled already and at one point Friday it had tripled.

No thoughts of pinching myself on that one. I am an Irish Midas. I do not know whether it was a great call or I am very lucky. I will take either.

All right...me too. I sold some ABX and put into Anglogold but I put most of it into Newmont at $17.

I'm not pleased with ABX cause they have renegged on their promise to buy back shares.

But, I hold them cause they're a safe bet. They have something up there sleeve cause what are they going to do with all the cash they have?

And if they buy back their hedge as THE HATT has pointed out...that's even more cash.

I have insider friends, but nothing to report as yet. We'll just have to wait and see.

Two weeks ago it was at $272 or so... now it's up $20. Is this the beginning? Are we going to see it climb, climb, climb???

Do the words, 'Obstruction of Justice', mean anything to you? The President of the United States is not an 'ordinary man'. He has the power of life and death over many people. Let us not forget the summary firing of the Travel Office people, the 900+ FBI files, the lack of security clearances during the first term of this administration, the presence of the Arkansas thugs in the White house, ... I could gone on, but I think you get the point. Clinton is an actor, and a manipulator. As for Hillary? What kind of a relationship is this? Bill humiliates her repeatedly and she forgives him? Sick, very sick, or power hungry. Take your pick. Neither is appealing. Throw them ALL out, NOW.

OK...I'll give in to you a little bit.

I TOTALLY, ABSOLUTLEY, AGREE 100% WITH YOUR FIRST PARAGRAPH IN YOUR RESPONSE TO ME.

So, let me revise...........

******* THEY SHOULD BOTH BE HANGED... BY THE BALLS ********

The NSA had ( probably has something more modern now ) about 40 acres of Cray supercomputers the used specifically for speech analysis. It seems most of the world's long distance phone conversations go bu way of microwave link at some point or another in their routing. Thes signals can be picked up by satellite.

So even though they could pick up and potentialy record the earth's long distance phone traffic, they didn't have enough people to listen to them all.

That's where the computers's came in. They could at fairly high speed listen to a conversation and tag it for key words. If enough words lile "secret", "bomb", "Swiss account", etc. or their equivalent in the particular language appeared in a conversation, it was marked for some human agent to listen to.

At different times and circumstances one set of key words might be more interesting than others....

And that's showing COMPASION to WJC.

Full storyRussian c.bank gold reserves 442 T Sept 1-agency
11:45 a.m. Sep 11, 1998 Eastern

MOSCOW, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - The Russian central bank's gold reserves on September 1 were estimated at around 441.88 tonnes, Prime-Tass news agency said on Friday, quoting a central bank source.

``Gold reserves in Russia, calculated at a value of $300 per troy ounce, fell by $627 million to $4.262 billion from $4.889 billion in the first eight months this year,'' Prime-Tass said.

One troy ounce is equal to 31.1035 grams.

Central bank gold reserves on June 25 were 525 tonnes.

Tass said total gold and foreign exchange reserves fell to $12.459 billion on September 1 from $17.784 billion on January 1, 1998.

On Thursday the central bank said in a statement its gold and foreign exchange reserves fell to $12.3 billion on September 4 from $12.7 billion on August 28.

Prime-Tass said the central bank's foreign exchange reserves include gold, foreign currency and Special Drawing Rights ( SDRs ) , an international reserve asset that is essentially the currency of the International Monetary Fund.

As of September 1 the central bank had $8.196 billion in foreign currency reserves and had no SDRs, Prime-Tass said.

The roadmap, Jeil's cbarts, various others, seem to all point to a particularly dark Halloween.

Prime-Tass said the central bank's foreign exchange reserves include gold, foreign currency and Special Drawing Rights ( SDRs ) , an international reserve asset that is essentially the currency of the International Monetary Fund.


That's some scary shix.
gb

Canadian gold stocks climb on international turmoil

TORONTO, Sept 11 ( Reuters ) - Canadian gold stocks began to shed their anemic image on Friday as political uncertainty in the United States and fears of a growing financial crisis in Latin America pushed bullion prices to a three-month high.
 Gold and precious minerals stocks gained an average two percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Canada's most important stock market, helping to sustain a 37-percent rally over the past two weeks.
 A falling U.S. dollar, the safe-haven of choice recently for skittish international investors, once again boosted confidence in gold. Gold bullion touched a high of $296 an ounce on Friday before profit-taking took it back to $293.40 an ounce.
 Gold closed at $290.20 an ounce on Thursday.
 Nervous investors dumped the U.S. dollar as questions about U.S. President Bill Clinton's ability to survive a growing political crisis continued to swirl in international equity and foreign exchange markets.
 A contrite-sounding Clinton appealed yet again for forgiveness on Friday as U.S. lawmakers released to the public part of a report detailing his extra-marital affair with former White House intern Monica Lewinksy.
 The report by independent counsel Kenneth Starr could trigger a move to impeach Clinton and terminate his presidency.
 "Clinton's White House problems are all casting doubt on the U.S. dollar, so gold has regained its traditional safe-haven characteristics. It was de-linked for a while, but my expectation is that the restoration will be beneficial to the gold index," said John Ing, president of Toronto-based brokerage Maison Placements Canada Inc.
 Renewed fears that a global economic downturn may soon engulf Latin America added to gold's renewed luster.
 Although gold had not benefited from months of financial turmoil in Asia and Russia, the prospect of the contagion sweeping through Brazil and Mexico, prompted worries the U.S. economy, particularly its banking system, could become vulnerable.
 Ing said he expected Canadian gold stocks would continue to edge upward as gold threatens to breach the key psychological $300-an-ounce level.
 Mid-sized gold producers, such as TVX Gold Inc. and Goldcorp Inc. , were the big winners on the benchmark Toronto Stock Exchange's 300 index. Gold and precious minerals account for five percent of the TSE 300.
 Toronto-based TVX climbed C$0.30 to C$3.40 a share, or 9.7 percent, while rival gold producer Goldcorp rose C$0.70 to C$6.90 a share, or 11 percent.
 Some analysts warned the current bullishness toward gold might be premature. Canada's gold stock index remains firmly planted in negative territory, having lost 10 percent of its value since the beginning of the year.
 "I think this is more of a short-term rally. Every time we get a little rally in gold, people think there has been a sea change in the industry. The market has been fooled so many times and I see no reason why this is such a remarkable change," said Manford Mallory, analyst with Toronto-based brokerage Research Capital Corp.
 Mallory said it would be difficult to sustain the price of gold much above $300 an ounce during the next two years.

You want to shoot yourself in the foot? Go ahead . Make your day. If you hate him ...fine.But WOW are you in for a lot of pain if you try and impeach him. He'll not only feel your... pain, but you will.You know ...You never appreciate what you have until you lost it. Ask Bill. He knows.
How about that GOLD! Dow up, Gold up,Dollar down. Go figure. I don'ty know if this is bad or good. I made a little tho. ( very little ) Didn't lose tho.

Clarence Thomas cannot be compared with Bill Clinton. Name one thing that
Justice Thomas was proved guilty of.
WJC has, on the other hand, used a cigar? THERE IS NO COMPARISON!
What do cigars have to do with a frigid wife? Normal sex would suffice.
WJC/Monica is more like Adolf Hitler/Eva Braun, but worse.

Sorry, but I can tell from your take that we will never agree on this.
So communication is worthless waste of band width.

Great post Chief ( any relation to crazyhorse? ) . It was a pleasure reading it.

I like the military thing... simply cause I used to be in the army for about 4 years.

Keep up the good work!!

With many apologies for the tardy response ( Oris forced me to go to the gun show this afternoon ) .... I'm sorry to report that the "shooting star" you referred to earlier, is only available in Advanced Fetch. You'll have to speak to Ben about it. ..... Nonetheless, no sooner did I speak ( and depart ) but gold decided to turn upward and destroy the shooting star I had envisioned for the day. Such is the course of prognostication. ..... Me 'n Puetz. ........ 'N I don't care what Realistic thinks, Puetz is still better company than he ( Realistic ) is. Puetz ain't a sniper and ankle biter.

GB

Seems to me that's the question now as it pertains to the markets. Proceed and it may be debateable, but a reasonable chance they succeed, hence more pressure on the Dow, the dollar, and gold should keep rising. Decide not to proceed, the equity markets look like they could keep rising after todays performance.

The congress will be watching the poles over the weekend, and no doubt be influenced. I figure Americans are pretty pragmatic people, while they despise the embarrasment of this all, has it got all that much to do with the job done, and the excellent performance of the US economy? Will they want to disrupt the office of the President while all this chaos is happening in global markets? Will Clinton's approvals in the poles of 65% change much with the Star report out now. What do others think?

Gold, from what I interpret is due for a correction near term--
http://www.midam.com/ecb/md3dxkv8.htm
So since we have had a nice move up, which may continue a day or two
longer, there's always the correction to be expected.
No need to get bent out of shape when it happens, just be expecting it.

The counter moves on a Friday, if you'll excuse repetition, are usually
short terms traders, squaring books prior to a weekend. So in a bear
market prices will go up and the opposite is true in a bull. Gold
being in the early phases of a bull, IMHO, is the reason for the late
day turn in the opposite direction, like theXAU. This could extend
into next week and is a perfectly normal reaction to the sizable up
move we've all enjoyed.

May I point out, that we can expect this young bear to take from 8-10
years to mature, which is the norm. Check it out, history shows that
bears usually tend to retrace the previous up moves, in approx half
the time, so it depends where you start to measure. Many chartists
see 1982, as a bottom, I look at long term charts, and see 1974.

Can we expect to see crash action, a la Puetz predictions, sure, but
if history is any guide, then my expectations would say, the possible
crash action could come near the end, or in several years, and then,
most likely, unexpectedly.

It's all a big game of whose guess is best. And it doesn't really matter
if you're on the right side of the trend. PMs, commodities, most currencies up, and most of the world markets, that have had a long term
phenominal run, in the early stages of a bear.

Always be prepared for surprises, it beats SHOCKS!

In reference to the manipulation of the POG...I was watching the Dec gold futures this morning on a one minute chart. It may not be obvious that it was being manipulated by looking at the daily numbers, but the price was rapidly climbing until ONE BAR reached above $300 ( actually $300.2 ) and the price was rapidly swatted back by 4 or 5 dollars. The Wave pattern for this move up looks completed.Draw your own conclusions, but mine are: ( 1 ) For now at least, gold is still in the corral. ( 2 ) This move in gold is probably over, and there is very likely another test of the low in POG, not just a minor correction from here. ( 3 ) The POG will break out for sure only after most of us are in deep dark despair, and the controlling interests have met their objectives ( whatever they may be ) . ( 4 ) We should keep an eye on projections like Jeil's, Inpathique, Yvan Auger's, which have been saying for a long time that gold and gold shares would take a final big hit - they just may do that, soon.P.S.I hope I'm wrong on all of this - but like Gollum says... What is, is.

Would appreciate any advice on buying gold, silver coins or bars. Best or
safest. Also what fees are appropriate. I see a couple of sites charging $24 to $27 on top of spot. My local dealer charges $9. Curious
what others are paying.

Mr. Willy should have carried a vaginal speculum during his encounters.. that way he would have had a way out.. could always say his hobby was being a OBGYN doctor..

Various and sundary renderings by our fine statisticians at MRCI. They do all seem to have something in common. Perhaps I should go to cash for a few weeks. Coe\me to think of it Jeils charts seem to be another variation on the same melody. Isn't fine art grand?

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc001.htm
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc002.htm
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc003.htm
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc004.htm
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc005.htm
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc006.htm

Welcome aboard, how's it hanging?

400 pages of supportive details on the Monica transgression.

***YAWN***

Show me the contents of the other 2 smaller reports Starr

has in reserve ( discussed on CNBC ) . If Klinton doesn't step

down over the 400 pager, then the other two will flush him

down the friggin toilet. Starr must have made a deal with someone

to present the least damaging report first. Monicafolly is weany.

I do not believe that Mr. Munk would unwind ABX hedges. From what I have seen in the past year, the policies of hedges have destroyed the stockholders value. If he is going to get the board of ABX to unwind, then I will reconsider. I still have some.
As far as your NEM, ..me too, except in NGC. They are slightly profitable.
Which brings up another thing, If the hedges are so great, why can't the geniuses at ABX make any money? NGC/NEM do pay a trifling dividend on a miniscule profit, but they try.
The "cash costs", whatever that has to do with reality, are lower on ABX than nearly any other miner in the world. Yet.... NO PROFIT.
Their properties are similar to Newmont's, yet if gold does decouple from the crashing currencies, Newmont will far outshine American Barrick.

People who've never experienced the total loss and devastation that occurs when people have to flee have no concept of the difference that gold can make.

Here's a link to an old-timer's recollections of fleeing a Turkish-Kurdish massacre as a boy with his family:

http://www.nineveh.com/ww1.htm

Only about a third of the people survived.

Most of the refugees were destitute and impoverished when they arrived at the area controlled by the British. For the next three generations their descendants in southern Iraq remained an impoverished underclass. Here is Ben Benjamin's account of how his family survived the ordeal with enough wealth to mount an attempt to return to their homeland, and eventually, to emmigrate to the United States:

"Within a short period of time, the people at the camp decided to send a small armed group of able-bodied men to go over the mountain terrain and see if there was
a passage through the mountains to the border of Iran. Mosul is approximately 600 kilometers north of Baghdad, and the distance to Turkey, Iraq and Iran was
very close, just over the mountains. The distance to Lake Urmia was not too far from there. The small armed group of men left and, much to their chagrin, they were
met by a fierce tribe of Kurds. The Kurds knew the terrain and they outnumbered the small Assyrian group. After some exchange of rifle fire, only a few of the
group survived. One of my first cousins came back alive and he had the corpse of another relative strapped on the back of his saddle. It was then that my father
decided we should go bock to Baghdad.

I was too small to know all the secrets of my family, but I recall, when we left Ardeshai, my mother used to put a heavy vest-like jacket on me. But when I got sick,
just before I was separated from them at Sain-e-Qaleh, they took the vest off. When we were in Ba'Quba Camp, I found out that my father, mother and sister
Martha also had similar vests, and that long before we left home in Ardeshai, my mother had sewn Iranian gold money in the lining of all our vests and the saddles of
the mules. I remember my father making several trips to Baghdad while we were at the Ba'Quba Camp. He had been taking small amounts of gold and depositing it
with a Chaldean man who was introduced to my dad by a friend. ( The Chaldean, are also Christians and speak a dialect which is similar to Aramaic, and they have
been in Baghdad ever since they lost their country of Chaldea to the hordes af Islam ) .

Upon our return to Baghdad, my father received a letter from my oldest brother Pera, who had been sent to the United States to further his education. In his letter,
Pera told my father that to try to go back to our home-land just for the purpose of being near the vineyards, farmland and other property which our family owned,
was inadvisable, because the Islamic countries would never be safe for Christianity. After a great deal of deliberation, and having given serious consideration to
Pera's letter, my father went to the American Ccnsulate in Baghdod and applied for an immigration visa to the United States.

We left Baghdad on the river boat named " Majida" to the port of Basra at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It took 4 days and nights. After waiting a few days at the
port, we got passage on the British cargo liner "Castalia"."

Food for thought . . .

- Steve ( who has survived one revolution )

Without wanting to step on your manipulation theory, it's fairly common for people to exit a position as price moves through a significant number. I've seen it referred to as "first through the even". Which is largely why prices seem to retreat from decade levels in price.

I have a gut feeling that we're going to see a pull back in the POG, but I also feel that the buck stops somewhere in October-November, probably in mid Nov.

The EURO goes full steam ahead Jan 1, and I find it very hard to discount YK2 panic next year.

My inside sources tell me that Gold sales & leasing by CB's will be SEVERELY restricted by the ECB which one reason why we selling by CB such as the Czech. It has already been decided but the announcement will come ( as you say ) when their objectives have been met.

HOWEVER, MY BIGGEST FEAR IS GOLD SALES/LEASING BY THE US TO OUNTER THE STRENGTH OF THE EURO!! If the US doesn;t do it, AU goes to $3000/oz.

Time will tell.

BTW, if it's handy; look at the daily XAU for today. It formed a shooting star, which should be a negative BUT it did not come in the midst of a trend ..... and is probably not of valid concern. Japanese charting methods are so inscrutable ..... But then Ben can fill you in on the details. .... {:- ) )

communications surveillance program can be found at:

http://www.jya.com/echelon.htm

- Steve

We're hangin' "finer than frog's fur".

With gold mining stocks & physical, cash & bonds.
Nice mix lately, eh?

Sorry to all for yelling, but that got my goat.

Tantalus Rex:
One reason why gold MIGHT hold up somewhat is because most of us fear that it will drop again. We've been conditioned this way.
Highhopes

Does anyone know why Vista Gold was up 540% today? I'll appreciate any information.

I'm debating on the merits of Golden Star Resources ( which I have a small position in already, but am thinking of adding to ) or buying Greenstone Resources. Both look like companies that could go up many times over once the POG gets moving. If anyone has comments about either company, I'd appreciate it.

Is Clinton going down and gold going up? I don't know how everyone feels
but if I was caught lying on the stand in a divorce Court
I would be black balled and shunned and if found guilty of lying
with evidence would I not be charged and jailed. I have been reading this form for a year now and find this site to have the best insite
into gold going up and down mind you I have been buying calls with a 320 strike price next week will be very interesting in the market's.

Keep up the great posts people I'm sure there are lots of people that read this forum and never post.

camster

Here's what he said tonight:"Gold shines... We saw a huge move in gold this morning as it traded briefly at the $300 level on the December futures contract. After being up about $7, it pulled back to finish $3 higher. We will have to see if this ends the first part of the rally, or if it will rest and then go higher. Somewhere along the line there is going to be a violent pullback, so that everyone who has enjoyed this nice run will be scared out of it. -- From Bill Fleckenstein

Highhopes

Wifey says it's time for BBQ. - Regards

Will see what Monday brings. BRING IT ON. Namaste

Firstly, I think the relative underperformance of Drooy has more to
do with dilution from all the new stock. The XAU has risen about
50% from its trough in this rally and I hardly think that shows a lack
of faith in the gold rally.

Bad bank loans do matter. When the bank makes a loan it debits an
asset and credits a deposit liability ( banks make loans by crediting
the borrower's demand deposit account ) . When the loan goes bad a debit
is made to earnings which reduces the bank's capital. If the bank
has enough bad loans, its capital can become impaired to a point where
uninsured depositers become nervous about the bank's solvency and withdraw their money. Given fractional reserve banking, the banks never
have enough cash to meet demand if enough depositers want to withdraw
at the same time ( that's called a bank run ) . If this happens, the bank goes bust.

Technically all banks in a fractional reserve system are always insolvent. They can stay in business only as long as confidence is
maintained and most depositers don't ask for their money back at the
same time. If they do on a systemic basis, the banking system collapses.

Thank you. Very interesting. Very accurate. The first time I have seen such in the public domain. There are a lot of other things that go bump in the night too.

A very nice mix as you say... I just love it.

Here's a nice tip that worked hansomly for me....

I know that gold can't stay below $280/oz for long so when it appraoched that price, I bought Anglogold at $17.50. ( Any good mining company would do, I just wanted to diversify cause I never held Angol before )

At a price of $280, the avg marginal cost of production ( worldwide ) , exceeds the avg marginal income from sales. That's why very few gold miners have not shut down. The avg cost of production worldwide is about $300/oz ( and that is Full cost, not marginal cost ) and so they on the avg, most companies are losing money when the POG is below $300/oz.

BUT THEY LOSE MORE BY SHUTTING DOWN WHEN POG IS AT $300/oz. IT IS ONLY PROFITABLE for them TO SHUT DOWN WHEN POG IS AT $280/oz.

But note, IT MUST BE A ***PROLONGED*** $280 for most to shut down

opened at 5/32 closed at 7/32 per Datek. ClearStation shows what you say it did, saying it closed at $1. It didn't.

I was thinking the same thing too.

We need gold investors to hang on to their stocks and not panic sell.

Consider this.

Barrick traded 4M shares today. The total outstanding shares is 375.5M. If 4M shares are traded each day, then after 100 days, the might consider that the whole lot has changed hands. In that case there are no long term investors.

Who the hell has the guts to sell shares like this? Perhaps the shares aren't really sold at arms length as we are led to believe. It could be that most of them are sold and bought by the same "person" in order to manipulate the price.

OAK, Now I'm curious as to what Vista Gold actually closed at. I checked a half dozen quote servers and they all showed that Vista closed at $1.00.

Gold's fall from the futures position of $300.00 and it's position at end of day does not bode well for next week. Politicaly the USA will do absolutely nothing in regards to there corrupt President. The markets will take an upturn of 400 to 500 points that I will call the "Because" rally. Nothing has changed fundimentally. The market still presents itself as a Bear internationally but most data and news from international markets will be ignored. Hard to believe but that is the USofA. The month of Sept. should conclude with a healthy gain for gold and gold stocks but I expect such gains late in the month.

!

As pointed out in the URL you posted the US has IMMENSE capabilities not commonly known. Consider this:

At the time Sadaam got a little big for his britches, Iraq had the fourth largest army in the world. The fourth largest in the world.

The US dispatched some ships and planes and whatever troops it had on hand at the time and defeated him in about 100 hours time. Tens of thousands of casualties on the Iraqi side, about 156 or so on the US side. A goodly portion of which were from "friendly fire" and snafu's.

Now I ask you, if the US really wanted to stop drug traffic could it?

The US put a man on the moon. No one else has.

The Japanese had ( have? ) the second largest economy in the world. Not so many years ago one could have traded the real estate in Tokyo alone for most of the US. Look at it now. What happened. Could they have gotten a little big for their britches too?

We decrie many bad things tha go on in the world in the way of drugs, terrorists, etc. but behind the scenes there are many agendas.

When the embassies were blown up and the US retaliated, there was a lot of news about the cruise missle strikes, but there were a lot of other things that went on in remote dingy hotel rooms around the world that did not reach the news. Methinks some hind ends were refitted to their britches and things are quiet again.

market closed at 1600. Datek does not track shares on instinet
( after hours trading ) . last trade just before 4 p.m was 7/32.
http://www.quote.com/layout/index.frames.html?/cgi-bin/jchart-form
go to above. you will see 3 trades all together at around 16:30.
Shows price go from 7/32 to 1/2 to 3/4 to $1. Very strange. Now
you have me wondering what happened.

p.s. at above URL, put in stock "VGZ" to see what happened.

But I do LIKE your thinking.

Wait I think I hear the 5th Dimension singing that old song:

"Up up and away....."

Off to dream, perchance to sleep.

There are many companies that have a float turnover in a week, a few in a day, and many within a month.




For the gut feeling crowd, if the CB's and the hedges get together for their last foray, I still hold some dry powder.
I see nothing in the news, or the rumor mill, that is reported here, that would give credence to a gold drop.

Even on the goldbear sites, the best that they can do is offer up the terrifying spectre of Czech gold sales.
The Czech citizens must be the only ones that are terrified of this news. What utter idiots these bankers are, selling into an explosive market. ( ok.. not very explosive ) .
Perhaps it would be interesting if one of the unnamed-stringer Rueters reporters would wave his press release at the public relations minion that releases the CB sales news, and demand an accounting of the sale price and the buyer's identity.
The idiots at the various gold producing organisations could chip in a nice dinner for a reporter that would have the forcefulness to make a scene with the CB's toady.

http://www.shepherd-express.com/shepherd/19/37/headlines/cover_story.html

Anybody have a link to Jeil's charts ? I forgot to bookmark it.

Voyeur Professor: I think you and I and Bill Buckler are describing different aspects of the same elephant. I will do my best to describe the two scenarios that I know -

1 ) Falling interest rates associated with expansion of the money supply.

2 ) Rising interest rates due to increased currency risk.

1 ) ---

In the US, the perfect example of this scenario is around 1992-1993 when AG was forced to lower short term interest rates to expand the money supply. The economy was in a recession, and the monetary velocity was plummeting. This process is fairly straight forward. Your example of negative low interest rates would apply, as in that situation you find yourself steadily losing money in the US dollar due to inflation, and you must flee from the dollar to a currency of some kind that is not steadily losing value -- like gold. In 1993, gold went from about 343/oz to a little over 400/oz in about 6 months, and gold equities doubled.

2--- This scenario is a bit more complex, as it is associated with rising interest rates due to worries about currency risk. Consider the period from 1984 to 1987 when the US dollar had dropped from about 140, to about 100. Around Mar/April 1987 a number of foreign investors -- the Japanese playing a major part -- got nervous with the steadily dropping US dollar, and started to sell their US assets in a big way. The US markets became flooded with demands for 'real' assets in exchange for dollars, and demand for US treasuries went way down, causing interest rates offered to rise. Other international investors undoubtedly noticed the phenomenon immortalized in the Jane Fonda movie 'Rollover' I think it was called, and interest rates rose even more. The US dollar dropped abnout 10% in about 5 days, again a very inflationary sign, but with rising rates rather than falling ones. Several months later - October 1987 -- after gold equities had doubled, the markets crashed.

I hope this explains the two scenarios I know where inflation presents itself -- the internal one due to CB inflating of the dollar by reducing interest rates -- and the external ( foreign market ) exchange-related one where a run on the dollar causes local interest rates to rise.

I think the conceptual problem comes from the fact that there are several ways interest rates can go up and down, and it is easy to confuse one another with regard to which of several mechanisms is actually happening.

am i the only one that read about silver used in cancer treatment? why has that not moved silver up?

Cause even if it proves effective, the amount needed would be miniscule compared to normal production / consumption.

All: The US dollar has dropped from 102 to about 96 in a matter of weeks. Anyone know why interest rates are not rising? Are we in such a deflationary mindset that this is possible? Certainly looks good for gold.

Personally, I think it is time to slowly accumulate gold equities, but this time I will be much more cautious than I was in the last two years, as I don't want to get caught in another gold 'fire sale'. Oh, for the good old days when all we had to worry about was simple inflation.

The WJC stuff is going to smoulder for months, wearing down the markets. And any probable 'wag the dog' type activity will just cause gold and oil to go up as well. The cyclic factors bullish for gold are slowly but surely gathering momentum.

Silver does cause cancer. PROOF EXISTS.
If you implant a 90% silver dime in the subcutaneous tissue in a rat's abdomen for a period that approximates a rat's lifespan in the wild, most of the sampled rats contracted cancer.
Admittedly this would be like implanting a Zildjian cymbal set in your twelve-year old's abdomen, but what the heck. It's gommint science.
Don't buy silver, and especially do not put 500 face bags in your gut.

Voyeur Professor: Sorry. Please replace 'negative low interest rates' with 'negative real interest rates'.

Are there any nitrates bleeding into Lake Michigan from these old rounds? Evidence?
Lake Michigan's biggest problems are caused by government.
Can you say zebra mussel? , How about, lamprey, no perch, etc.
Rather than cleaning up underwater sites from fifty years ago, perhaps you should emphasise the reckless disregard that the government has for the property of it's neighbors.
Steve, Do you recall a gommint scam from a few years ago when they were going to get taxpayer subsidy for manganese nodule mining in Lake Michigan? These clowns will troll for subsidies any way they can get them.
They'd find 656g/ton gold placer if they thought it would guarantee a grant renewal.

What an interesting question! Every now and then when I check the Friday night Kitco one topic just jumps out as being really interesting. So let me give it a try at answering:

Metals have been used for years in various cancer treatments, the most popular being platinum, which produces some really corrosively toxic compounds. The theory is that the chemical will kill the tumor before it kills the host-not always true however.

But these compounds are used in such tiny amounts that even with platinum the cost of the chemical is mostly due to its manufacturing processes and not the platinum itself. In fact some of the most popular chemicals for chemotherapy were made originally from an extract of a type of periwinkle flower and another was made from Pacific yew tree bark ( no kidding ) still another from marijuana; their cost is still very high even as they're synthesised from common materials.

Now, with silver you are still talking about doses in the milligram range. The would use much more silver in instruments and tools. for instance the trach tube I had to wear after my cancer surgery had maybe 1/5 ounce of silver, even though at the time it felt like it weighed much more. It probably cost the hospital 2 or 3 hundred dollars but the cost was mostly in its fabrication.

Here is a link to one of the big cancer information services. I believe that the University of Pennsylvania Onco-Link is the most informative link from there, particularly dealing with information about platinum compounds. Silver is little mentioned. Warning, it always scares me to look at this stuff, particularly when I look at treatment options for my kind of cancer. This stuff is uncensored. http://www.arc.com/cancernet/cancernet.html

All IMHO of course. Standard disclaimer applies. No advice, just comments, et cetera.

a silver dime or tooth filling or something before they got the medication!