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NEW BACKUP SYSTEM DEP'T:
For future downings please feel free to come to http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/comments/investment/display_short.cgi. This is actually where the old site was before we moved it. Please make a note of the URL and use it ( if and ) when this page doesn't respond.
I think the bottom has probably been established, but if Gold turns at present levels ( $US 494-95 ) , the trend is still down. That means further sideways action. Of course, the further Gold goes "sideways" the lower the downtrend line gets, and the level at which it is broken falls too.
On top of that, Gold has turned up at the bottom of a very shallow uptrend in Yen terms, and is trying to rally from what looks like an undershoot in D-Mark terms.
All the usual weekly charts and commentary are up at The Privateer website.
I ( seriously ) thought that that was a file I wrote before I got
CRS disease. I do a lot of biz in Hongkong/China, and there, godown is "warehouse." I operate a wholesale distribution business from a California warehouse, or "godown."
Any success regarding your house?
That is priceless. I guess that just means that Spain and Portugal can now defy economic gravity now that the EURO is 'on line'. What is even more amazing is that the EURO trade is still infinitesimal relative to regular currency trade for those countries. Who are they kidding? Well I guess if you can fool some of the people all the time, and some of the people are the majority, it might not be so hard.
Who am I to talk? There are still a number of fools who support our US president.
I think the bottom line is that we are going to have a EURO crisis. Forget the EURO is being a viable threat to the US dollar. Probably a pre-y2k problem.
With respect to the president, his lies and coverups, he confided in Monica Lewinsky about having hundreds of affairs with other women. The many lady business is in the Starr report, I think, about the time he told Monica that their affair was over. The message was that he was trying to go 'cold turkey' as they say, sexwise. This means that WJC has outdone JFK and all the other formet presidents when it comes to indiscriminate sexual activity. What a farce it is to compare WJC to all other presidents or Democrats who have had an affair with a consenting adult. WJC is in a class all by himself -- dysfunctional.
Well this is a big green light for the Paula Jones lawsuit, as this is an admission to his 'little problem'. So now WJC is in trouble on two items -- the Paula Jones Lawsuit -- which now has legal grounds, and the Monicagate situation, where he had sexual relations with Monica, as defined by Susan Webber Wright. So he lied in the Paula Jones business, as well as in the Monica business.
Now that the stack of cards ( lies ) is falling down, it is likely that a few of the hundreds of other women will come forward without fear for their children ( Kathleen Willy ) , or for themselves. As I recall, it was Kathleen Willy's cat that met an untimely end, about the time she was to come forward. Didn't one of Monica's Whitehouse intern friends die rather suddenly in the very same Starbucks Coffee shop where Monica was caught E-Mailing a message to the Whitehouse?
WJC knows he is in deep trouble. You should read Ambrose Evans Pritchard's new piece on the possible indictment of Hillary in World Net Daily. I know nothing that contradicts AE Pritchard's version of the truth.
Any idea why Oil is doing so well? Almost as good a rise as Gold. By the way, I should have bought more gold equities at the bottom we just had -- I was afraid of a crash that did not materialize. You were right. I could have turned around, and sold most of my profitable trades a few days ago, and kept what I have now. I would have made up for all of my gold-related losses for the last two years, plus a tidy profit of about 25%. Wasn't gutsy enough with all the gloom and doomers making me nervous. Kept my ABX call options, which are doing nicely ( funny money only ) . Wish I could say the same for my PAASF and SSC. The big guys in silver played us like a violin.
Well: At least I had the sense to sell almost everything the day before the 20% ( or so ) market correction. Almost everyone I know is in the markets for the duration, because how else can you save money for retirement? I've given up warning them -- I only tell people who are ready to listen.
POG well under control. I think when gold tests the +$300 level, it
will be hit by a ton of short-selling.
The shorts can't do anything else, as a runaway POG means defaults
and ruin for them, and they can short by borrowing gold at all-time
low lease rates. As far as I know, lease rates are still under 1%,
in fact, the last one I have seen was .41% This means CBs are
almost willing to lease gold for free in order to keep its rise
in check. No bull.
BEWARE This is not a market, it's a manipulation. We will have a
true market, with POG reflecting supply and demand fundamentals only
when lease rates are over 3%. That's a long way up from 0.41%!
I will buy no gold or gold equities unless I can see a day to day
quote for lease rates. Kitco is not posting these quotes. So
I cannot buy bullion from Kitco, or anybody else until they begin
to give sufficient leasing data to allow a logical deduction on the
future direction of the gold market.
Lease rates still say we are poised on the edge of a deflation. If so,
gold will go to $200. IMHO.
I am off to cut wood in the bush, so will check back in with Kitco tommorrow.
Traders pointed to the dollar's weakness against the yen and continued uncertainty about President Clinton. With much of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr's report to Congress on President Clinton made public Friday, amid accusations of perjury and abuse of power, the rally on the gold market could very well continue, traders said.
Gold was fixed Friday afternoon in London at $293.35 an ounce, up $2.85 from Thursday's late fixing. Elsewhere, December silver fell 2.5 cents to close at $5.025 a troy ounce, and October platinum added 80 cents to $366.30 a troy ounce.
September 14, 1998
Gold Glitters -- for Now
Bullion funds bounce back; also, meet a guy who saw the crash coming
By Barry Henderson
After a painful exile, managers of gold funds are stepping back into the limelight. With stock markets around the world jittery, investors are seeking safety in gold stocks, and that has sent the average gold fund up more than 20.26% during the past two weeks.
"The atmosphere has improved for us," says George Domolky, who manages the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio and Fidelity Select Precious Metals funds. Like most of his counterparts, Domolky invests primarily in gold-related stocks, which were bid up last week as investors watched the price of gold bullion climb back up from an 18-year low. And for every 1% that gold bullion rises, the stocks of gold companies tend to rise 3%-5% because, for them, higher gold prices mean sharply higher earnings.
The rebound in bullion prices was caused in part by Clinton's troubles at home and the falling value of the dollar against other currencies. The biggest winners last week were well-established gold producers like Barrick Gold, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, Newmont Mining, Homestake Mining and Getchell Gold. Last Thursday, Freeport moved up 16% to close at 18, while Getchell gained 25% to end the day at 15. Homestake jumped 8% to 11 7/8, and Barrick gained 9.5% to close at 18 1/16. As a group, gold mining stocks are still off about a third from their highs in April.
Gold-fund managers are clinging to the hope that this rally is more than a short-term spike in prices caused by short-covering at hedge funds that had been betting that gold prices were headed lower. The managers say that as the dollar continues to slide and the S&P 500 backtracks, gold stocks will continue to gain ground. "People finally see that our stock market isn't invulnerable," says Ralph Aldus, who is part of the portfolio team that runs the U.S. Global Investors World Gold fund. "It's only in the U.S. that gold has been a non-performing asset during the past two years." That's an understatement when you look at the longer-term performance of all of these funds. So far this year, the average gold fund is down 15.20%. During the past five years, the average gold fund has lost 9.97% per year.
For now, the past pressures on gold seem to have abated. Nevertheless, foreign central banks could once again begin selling gold. Already countries like Canada, Australia and Belgium have been forced to use up some of their gold reserves to support their own currencies. But portfolio managers don't sound worried. Suzanne Killea, who co-manages the Franklin Advisors Gold Fund, says the market is no longer worried about the central bank "overhang." "A lot of that has already been resolved."
Dan Leonard, manager of the Invesco Strategic Gold fund, agrees. He thinks that most central bankers realize that selling off gold to protect their currencies is a risky strategy. "Canada sold some gold to support the Canadian dollar, and it didn't work," he says. The turmoil in the emerging markets, especially in Asia, could actually work to support the price of gold, according to Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Gold fund. "I don't think many people have focused on the fact that the institution of currency controls in Malaysia is a long-term positive for gold," he says. "If that works politically, I think you could see other countries doing the same thing." By restricting the movement of currencies throughout this region, demand for gold should increase, according to this line of reasoning. Fidelity's Domolky says that not only have gold stocks been recovering because of improvements in the price of gold itself but the fundamentals of some of the larger gold mining companies have clearly gotten stronger as well. "The larger companies have cut costs and improved their balance sheets," while the smaller, weaker producers have gone by the wayside, he says. "I think over the next 12-18 months you're going to see more mergers and acquisitions in the industry."
Despite the recovery in gold shares, it's not clear that mutual-fund investors are convinced that these funds are much more than short-term trading vehicles. The shareholder base of these funds is notoriously fickle, sometimes buying and selling the funds in the course of a day or two. Stay tuned.
Here, as promised, are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the month of September so far:-
Date | Close | High | Low |
01 Sep | 69.08 | 69.22 | 68.72 |
02 Sep | 69.78 | 69.85 | 69.54 |
03 Sep | 69.70 | 69.89 | 68.27 |
04 Sep | 69.95 | 70.18 | 69.72 |
07 Sep | 70.07 | 70.22 | 69.86 |
08 Sep | 69.78 | 70.26 | 69.58 |
09 Sep | 70.10 | 70.19 | 69.68 |
10 Sep | 70.58 | 70.58 | 69.98 |
11 Sep | 70.51 | 71.31 | 70.25 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Note that the 5% rise in the Dollar price of gold ( from $279 to $293.5 ) so far this month is made up of a 2% rise in the True Value of Gold and a 3% fall in the value of the US dollar against all other currencies.
FASCINATING. Granted, it isn't evidence per sey. It does
make one sit up and take notice, at the very least...
The following is a list of dead people connected with Bill Clinton:
James McDougal - Clinton's convicted Whitewater partner died of an apparent heart attack, while in solitary confinement. He was a key witness in Ken Starr's investigation.
Mary Mahoney - A former White House intern was murdered July 1997 at a Starbucks Coffee Shop in Georgetown. The murder happened just after she was to go public with her story of sexual harassment in the White House.
Vince Foster - Former White House counselor, and colleague of Hillary Clinton at Little Rock's Rose law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the head, ruled a suicide.
Ron Brown - Secretary of Commerce and former DNC Chairman. Reported to have died by impact in a plane crash. A pathologist close to the investigation reported that there was a hole in the top of Brown's skull resembling a gunshot wound. At the time of his death Brown was being investigated, and spoke publicly of his willingness to cut a deal with prosecutors.
C. Victor Raiser II & Montgomery Raiser - Major players in the Clinton fund raising organization died in a private plane crash in July 1992.
Paul Tulley - Democratic National Committee Political Director found dead in a hotel room in Little Rock, September 1992. Described by Clinton as a " Dear friend and trusted advisor".
Ed Willey - Clinton fund raiser, found dead November 1993 deep in the woods in Virginia of a gunshot wound to the head. Ruled a suicide. Ed Willey died on the same day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped her in the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey was involved in several Clinton fund-raising events.
Jerry Parks - Head of Clinton's gubernatorial security team in Little Rock. Gunned down in his car at a deserted intersection outside Little Rock. Park's son said his father was building a dossier on Clinton. He allegedly threatened to reveal this information. After he died the files were mysteriously removed from his house.
James Bunch - Died from a gunshot wound, ruled a suicide. It was reported that he had a "Black Book" of people containing names of influential people who visited prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas.
James Wilson - Was found dead in May 1993 from an apparent hanging suicide. He was reported to have ties to Whitewater.
Kathy Ferguson - Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny Ferguson died in May 1994 was found dead in her living room with a gunshot to her head. It was ruled a suicide even though there were several packed suitcases, as if she was going somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a co-defendant along with Bill Clinton in the Paula Jones lawsuit. Kathy Ferguson was a possible corroborating witness for Paula Jones.
Bill Shelton - Arkansas state Trooper and fiance of Kathy Ferguson. Critical of the suicide ruling of his fiance, he was found dead in June 1994 of a gunshot wound also ruled a suicide at the gravesite of his
fiance.
Gandy Baugh - Attorney for Clinton friend Dan Lassater died by jumping out a window of a tall building January 1994. His client was a convicted drug distributor.
Florence Martin - Accountant sub-contractor for the CIA related to the Barry Seal Mena Airport drug smuggling case. Died of three gunshot wounds.
Suzanne Coleman - Reportedly had an affair with Clinton when he was Arkansas Attorney General. Died of a gunshot wound to the back of the head, ruled a suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.
Paula Grober - Clinton's speech interpreter for the deaf from 1978 until her death December 9, 1992. She died in a one-car accident.
Danny Casolaro - Investigative reporter. Investigating Mena Airport and Arkansas Development Finance Authority. He slit his wrists, apparent suicide in the middle of his investigation.
Paul Wilcher - Attorney investigating corruption at Mena Airport with
Casolaro and the 1980 "October Surprise" was found dead on a toilet June
22, 1993 in his Washington DC apartment. Had delivered a report to
Janet Reno 3 weeks before his death.
Jon Parnell Walker - Whitewater investigator for Resolution Trust Corp. Jumped to his death from his Arlington, Virginia apartment balcony August 15, 1993. Was investigating Morgan Guarantee scandal.
Barbara Wise - Commerce Department staffer. Worked closely with Ron Brown and John Huang. Cause of death unknown. Died November 29, 1996. Her bruised nude body was found locked in her office at the Department of Commerce.
Charles Meissner - Assistant Secretary of Commerce, who gave John Huang special security clearance, died shortly thereafter in a small plane crash.
Dr. Stanley Heard - Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health Care Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in a small plane crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton's advisory council personally treated Clinton's mother, stepfather and brother.
Barry Seal - Drug running pilot out of Mena Arkansas, Death was no accident.
Johnny Lawhorn Jr. - Mechanic, found a check made out to Clinton in the trunk of a car left in his repair shop. Died when his car hit a utility pole.
Stanley Huggins - Suicide. Investigated Madison Guarantee. His report was never released.
Hershell Friday - Attorney and Clinton fund-raiser, died March 1, 1994 when his plane exploded.
Kevin Ives & Don Henry - Known as "The boys on the track" case. Reports say the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena, Arkansas airport drug operation. Controversial case where initial report of death was due to falling asleep on railroad track. Later reports claim the 2 boys had been slain before being placed on the tracks. Many linked to the case died before their testimony could come before a Grand Jury.
THE FOLLOWING SIX PERSONS HAD INFORMATION ON THE IVES / HENRY CASE:
Keith Coney - Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a truck July, 1988.
Keith McMaskle - Died stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988
Gregory Collins - Died from a gunshot wound January 1989.
Jeff Rhodes - He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump in April 1989.
James Milan - Found decapitated. Coroner ruled death due to natural causes.
Jordan Kettleson - Was found shot to death in the front seat of his pickup truck in June 1990.
Richard Winters - Was a suspect in the Ives/Henry deaths. Was killed in a set-up robbery July 1989.
THE FOLLOWING CLINTON BODYGUARDS ARE DEAD:
Major William S. Barkley Jr.
Captain Scott J. Reynolds
Sgt. Brian Hanley
Sgt. Tim Sabel
Major General William Robertson
Col. William Densberger
Col. Robert Kelly
Spec. Gary Rhodes
Steve Willis
Robert Williams
Conway LeBleu
Todd McKeehan
I say the man really is sorry. Hate me for that, fine.
Go gold.
As I said many times before, we have the same view on many issues ( Clinton is one of them ) and than we view a few things very differently, however, that's what I like about this group. Diversity of opinions clashes of ideas. This forces one to think and to make up his own mind not to follow the crowd like a sheep. My kind of people, people I want to have for fiends ;- )
Inflate and gold goes up, deflate and AG wins the war on inflation, kills bad gold, and we have ourselves a nice little revolution? Decisions, decisions.
Sorry Wizned, you have to look at the whole picture. If Clinton stays in the office ( and it is possible ) we will have two years of totally incapable president. He will be week, not able to deal with the Hill or with any foreign powers. This will weaken not only the presidency, but also the whole country. If he were able to think of anything else but himself, he would step aside. If he does not, all those things you praise him for ( and in many issues he's just got a free ride due to fortunate timing when he got elected in an upswing economic cycle ) , will go down the drain.
My prediction, if he stays, the whole country will pay.
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