Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:01 - ID#7568)

I'm a bit more optimistic on the precedent which has been set. Politicians as a class generally must be in need of the support and adulation which the profession provides ( why else would any sane person want the job? ) . The ego gratification of these positions has be enormous for those that seek them.

The humiliation that this president has suffered as a result of his indescretions probably has not been lost on those who would follow in his footsteps.

Already, two other pol's have seen their sexual transgressions splash across the media. They are probably none too happy. I wonder how many more are holding their breaths' hoping that no skeletons or video tapes come waltzing out of the closet.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:02 - ID#226327)
William Rees-Mogg tells it like it is.....again

William Rees-Mogg, editorial London Times 9-14-98

Clinton could have survived the sex - but his big lie to the
people has shattered his presidency

Humpty Dumpty in the White House

Kenneth Starr is a lawyer, not a politician, let alone an
historian. His report is a rifle shot, dealing with one
incident, and with a small group of impeachable crimes,
including perjury and obstruction of justice. He had
already forced the President's lawyers into a dangerously
contradictory rebuttal. In essence, the President's reply to
Starr is: "I did not commit perjury and I have already said
I am sorry I did." Yet, in terms of the reaction of the
American people, and even of Henry Hyde, the chairman
of the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee,
Starr's rifle shot looks to have focused too narrowly on a
single sexual incident.

The Clinton presidency has been exposed to multiple
scandals since the 1992 Democratic primaries, which he
won despite them. As Governor of Arkansas, he was
repeatedly managing serious scandals even before that.
Monica Lewinsky was a minor event, one of perhaps 300
women, in a career in which the money scandals have
been more serious than the sexual ones. In the Paula
Jones case, her lawyers buttressed her evidence that the
President had exposed himself to her by introducing
evidence of a pattern. Monica Lewinsky was only one of
many women they alleged to have been involved in similar
incidents; that was how President Clinton came to perjure
himself in the Paula Jones pre-trial inquiries.

Kenneth Starr's report would have been better
understood by the public if he had made more use of this
evidence of a pattern. Apart from the perjury involved,
Monica Lewinsky is by no means an exceptional case.
Nor were the lies themselves or the pre-planning of the
lies exceptional. After all, Clinton lied repeatedly about
Gennifer Flowers, and tried to persuade her to lie. The
exceptional point was that his lies about Miss Lewinsky
were given in legal proceedings and therefore on oath. His
lies about Miss Flowers were not on oath.

The President's lawyers, whose personal attacks on Starr
may be digging a deep pit for the President, accused
Kenneth Starr of being obsessed with sex. Why is sex so
important in this case? It is because it is provable. The
complex network of Clinton scandals, in Arkansas and
Washington, has five nodes. There is the use of Mena
Airport in the 1980s to ship arms out to the Contras and
to ship huge quantities of cocaine into the United States;
Barry Seal was the operator. Mena was part of the largely
Republican Iran-Contra scandal; Bill Clinton was the
Governor who allowed it to happen in his state, and
protected it.

The second node is the financing of his Arkansas
governorship, through Whitewater, through the $700
million Arkansas Development Finance Authority, through
his financial relations with Tyson Foods, through Hillary's
commodity deal, and so on. These scandals were handled
by Vince Foster as Bill Clinton's legal advisor. The third
node is the fundraising for the 1992 campaign, in which
Foster was again involved. The fourth is the funding of the
1996 campaign, with its Chinese connection through the
mysterious John Huang. The "bimbo eruptions" are only
the fifth node in these Clinton scandals. Money was much
more important than sex.

Why, then, did Starr not concentrate on money? The
reason is simple. The Clinton machine, in Arkansas and in
Washington, was systematically organised to deal with
scandals in a way that the Nixon White House was not.
The corruption was real enough; there are Clinton
associates still in prison to prove that. But they were
cut-outs, the deniable intermediaries; these intermediaries
certainly included Vince Foster, which is why his death
was so important, and they went as high as Hillary. But
Bill Clinton himself was protected, so far as possible.

Even in the sex there was a system to protect Bill Clinton.
The women, including Monica Lewinsky, were coached in
denial, and were offered jobs or threatened in order to
secure their silence. There were staff members whose
work it was to stop the women talking. But Bill Clinton
could not handle the sex through a cut-out, as he could the
money. He could not ask John Huang, to have his
"inappropriate relations" for him. He had to do it himself.
Money was more important, but more deniable. Sex and
perjury were provable and Kenneth Starr has proved

Will Clinton survive? Possibly, but not as an effective
President. Humpty Dumpty is the role model. "All the
king's horses and all the king's men, Couldn't put Humpty
Dumpty together again." When he recognised that he was
in this situation, President Nixon finally resigned. I think it
likely that President Clinton will reach a similar stage at
some point in the impeachment process. He could have
survived the sex; the perjury and the big lie to the
American people is more likely to prove fatal.

It would be the same in Britain, though it would have
happened more quickly. Tony Blair has been supportive
of his friend Bill Clinton, well beyond the requirements of
diplomacy. He must know that if any Prime Minister had
had to make Bill Clinton's confession of August 17, he
would already have had to leave Downing Street. The
Guardian's leading article has the sniggering heading:
"Clinton had illicit sex. Gosh." The Guardian itself took
the issue of alleged perjury and a civil action much more
seriously in the case of Jonathan Aitken.

There is a division in American opinion which is mirrored
in Britain. There are many men who belong to Bill
Clinton's generation and identify with him, even if their
own lives have been less louche than his. There are many
women who are indulgent towards his sexual escapades.
There are many black people who see him as a
sympathetic President. These people do not want to
believe the evidence; they want to explain it away.

Many other Americans are shocked that an American
President could behave in this way; they do not accept
that "everyone does it"; they cannot forget the convincing
way their President lied to them on television, in his "that
woman" denial. The Democratic Senator Robert Kerrey,
who lost a leg in Vietnam, put one typical American view,
when admitting his own anger. "He's
Commander-in-Chief, for God's sake." Any officer who
behaved as the President behaved in the Oval Office
would be court martialled and dismissed from service.

The Democrats now have to come to terms with the anger
of these voters, as well as with their own anger and sense
of disillusionment. It is, after all, the biggest free bonus the
Republicans have had in this century. There are not many
votes in adultery and none in perjury; apart from
November elections, another two crippled years of a
discredited presidency would hand the White House to
the Republicans and further diminish the number of
Democrats in Congress.

At the next presidential election, all Americans are likely
to be looking much more closely at the character of the
President. For many Americans, it is an issue of broad
morality. They believe Monica Lewinsky; they do not
believe Bill Clinton. They find the President's conduct in
the Oval Office not just a personal matter but a disgrace.
They believe he would tell any lie to get himself out of a
difficulty. They feel he has betrayed his duty. The
probability is that there is more and worse to come. Bill
Clinton may or may not be forced to resign, but it is
inconceivable that he should be able to restore the trust or
authority of his presidency.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:03 - ID#237299)
Allen(USA)@ your calculations on the SDR
The mystery is yet to be explored. But I suspect the figures that they
use are book values, much like having a US Gold coin stamped $50 yet
containing $290 at market.

Using current conversions there are 213.35 SDR/ounce of gold- so plugging this amount into the calculations you ran through would yeild the IMF
as having roughly 3000 tonnes of gold.

The IMF claims to have 3,219 tonnes

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:05 - ID#254321)
I'm impressed!
D.A.: Your 20:59 - Pretty convincing argument. I think you are right that Paula Jones' case was dismissed, and probably irretreivable.

I must admit you are right that we do not want a runaway court of public opinion impeaching WJC, no matter what he has done to others. You are right -- once we stoop to his level we acquiesce. The last thing we need is to destroy our democratic system and our court of law where everyone is innocent until proven guilty.

On one matter I would disagree with you -- I think we are already risking the loss of much of what is good about our legal system. For example, the fiasco of the OJ Simpson trial, the refusal of Janet Reno to go forward with Campaigngate despite the FBI director's recommendation ( and I think CIA also ) , her refusal to efficiently pursue the Commercegate issue ( still being investigated by treasury ) .

Also, I think it is abuse of the presidential office to hire private lawyers on the Federal payroll, and then use them for private affairs.

Intimidation of witnesses such as Kathleen Willey is certainly illegal, but it will be hard to prove that WJC did it.

If the impeachment proceedings fail to go forward, it will be interesting to see what Kenneth Starr has lurking in the wings, and what comes out of his ongoing investigation.

What has fascinated me is Matt Drudge's comment that there is a 'mole' in the White House, secretly giving info to KS. I suspect this is true, as the KS report is much too detailed for all the information to have come just from Monica.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:06 - ID#238422)
It is sad that many rank-n-file people may suffer,
I agree completely. But the worth thing is that nothing
can be done to help tens of millions, it is practically
impossible. Nobody, even the U.S., can not save the whole
world. You may have strong feelings about it, but you
must be realistic - you must provide security for yourself
( your family ) in the first turn. Russians will not die from
starvation, although their ration may be not as good as
an average American has. What you really want is to prevent
disorder of a large magnitute, which could bring danger
of the nuclear war, and with all my respect to American
technology, it's not gonna save U.S. from at least some
of 16,000 nukes Russians got at this time. So, lets hope
that the new government of Russia will provide security for
Russia, which means for the world, although I do not like
Commies...but it seems a natural step back at this historical


(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:16 - ID#262242)
To all
Something going on in Japan. The Nikkei is up from +30 to +399 in one hour.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:21 - ID#254321)
Market rally Monday 9/14/98
BillinOregon: Your Nikkei 225 observation coincides with an anticipated US market rally on Monday. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts. A day or too, I would guess.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:22 - ID#227238)
An article in today's paper would seem to indicate that the last devaluation has put millions of Russians in a serious position for the coming winter. The article may have been slanted to support IMF funding but there have been additional - regional - articles indicating that imports of foodstuffs via barge from the West Coast and Alaska, have dropped off dramatically. Indications are that the Russian Far East is not faring well at all. Hunger may be a very serious problem there this winter. ...... What a sorry situation that has become.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:28 - ID#262242)
I thought so to earlier, but the Globax has the S&P up 3 and the DJIA down 27. So, its a crap shoot right now on what happens tommorow. I think forces are at work now trying to move the markets in the way they want them to go. The Nikkei is now down to +236. Talk about whipsaws.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:32 - ID#219363)
Japan Stock Prices Rebound
TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar edged higher against the yen early Monday, while Japanese stock prices bounced back in a favorable reaction to a rally on Wall Street late last week. The dollar bought 131.09 yen in early trading, up 0.31 yen from late Friday in Tokyo and also above its late New York level of 130.82 yen overnight. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 105.95 points, or 0.76 percent, to 14,022.93 points in the first 30 minutes of trading. On Friday, the Nikkei average closed down 749.05 points, or 5.12 percent, its largest drop this year in both points and percentage.

Maybe it's just a logical reaction to having lost 749.05 points on Friday.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:39 - ID#219363)
China Questioned in Market Action
HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Calling recent stock market interventions out of character with this territory's financial policies, a major Hong Kong opposition leader questioned whether the Chinese government had orchestrated the activities. Democratic Party Chairman Martin Lee said the large-scale purchases of stocks by the Hong Kong government, which were made under the pretense of shoring up the market and warding off speculators, was uncharacteristic of Hong Kong's conservative monetary management.

Wow, China suspected of influencing the Hong Kong market, what a shock.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:40 - ID#7568)

I've got to believe that Starr has shot his load. He knew that this report was going to be read by most everyone on the planet and covered ad nauseum in the media. For him to have held back an 'ace in the hole' would be suicide. The fact that the report contained reams and reams of explicit sexual detail which easily could have been left out or at least placed in an addendum for decency sake, shows that he was going for maximum shock value.

As an aside, this adventure has served to prove that the US Supreme Court made one of the greatest judgemental blunders in history when they opened the doors to the Paula Jones case. Their reasoning that such a suit would not be an undue burden on a sitting president has surely been layed to waste.

One of the things that has not been talked about and which appears to be a great importance is the set of circumstances under which WJC got nailed and what it means in the context of the ever nastier political process and for future presidents.

The basic formulae as has been upheld in the courts allows any government worker who has had any contact with the president to file a sexual harassment suit. Irrespective of the merits of that suit, the claimant is entitled to question the president under threat of criminal sanction on any and all relationships he or she may have had during his or her life. All these statements will certainly be leaked to public and regardless of the outcome of the sexual harassment hearing, the reputational damage will have been done.

There is something very wrong with the process, and which runs counter to the spirit of the American legal system, when one can be compelled under criminal sanction to give evidence which is clearly self damaging. It seems like there should be some addendum to the fifth amendment.

I'll bet before long we see the congress pass a law exempting both themselves and the president from such outcomes in the future. Self interest is a very powerful motivator.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:47 - ID#7568)
Off to count sheep.

PH in LA
(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:47 - ID#225408)
The winds: Are they a changin'?
What a refreshing developement: An actual breath of reason blowing through this site. First D.A. then NightWriter.

JTF: Thanks for pointing out that we do still have a nation of laws and that this whole special persecuter process does ultimately threaten to undermine and trivialize some of our cherished traditions. Maybe our president is not perfect. But maybe the alternatives ( Bush, Dole, impeachment? ) were/are worse.

But this hint of perspective coming from you seems incongrous. Who was it who tried to suggest a day or two ago that Kathleen Willey's cat had paid the price for Willey's interview on 60-minutes? Did I follow the argument correctly? Something about the same fate that had befallen Vince Foster now visited upon the cat by the Clintons' team of murderers?

Have you uncovered anything more on this important developement?

Where is our friend Realistic when we really need him?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 00:53 - ID#350145)
D.A.: very well presented
i enjoyed your measured and thoughtful analysis. the big story here is that this starr/clinton fiasco has damaged our legal process by forcing clarification of grey areas ( areas where existential solutions were the only thing that made sense ) that heretofore were left grey on purpose. i must say though that i think that between starr and clinton, history will judge starr more harshly.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 01:18 - ID#219363)
Omega Fund Joins List Of Billion-Dollar Losers
04Sep98 - New York Post

Wall Street was convulsed by another sell-off yesterday as word of another billion-dollar loss at a high-profile hedge fund raised fresh concern that the emerging-market meltdown is far from over. Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors, a $4-billion hedge fund, said it lost about $1 billion in August alone as its bets on emerging markets backfired. Hedge funds - which borrow money to leverage their high-rolling investors' wildly speculative gambles around the globe - have been laid low by the Russian debt default, the ongoing crisis in Asia and growing problems in Latin America.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 01:23 - ID#227444)
D.A. I agree

Star has publically stated that "it is in the hands of Congress"...Any foriegn diplomat has far more freedom from attack...I feel a pandora's political box has be opened and the average idiot American does not fathom the effect this will have upon our Constituitional ( not parlimentary ) system of government.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 01:41 - ID#284255)
Ownership of money and the induction of value to money:
Lack of uniform rules in statutory and constitutional systems.

Proposals for the Treaty of Maastricht
Press Release of Lecture given by Prof. Giacinto Auriti
Universiti di Teramo, Facolti di Giurisprudenza

Ownership of money and the induced value of money: Lack
of uniform rules in the legislative and constitutional systems.
Additional proposals for the Maastricht Treaty. The smell of
water in the desert. The right to peaceful revolution.

If we do not state who is the owner of money at the act of
issue it is impossible to distinguish between creditor and

When money was made of gold, there was no doubt: the
bearer was the owner of the money. Since the introduction
of "nominal money", the bearer has become the debtor and
the bank the owner. In this way, the people have been
expropriated and forced into debt to an amount equivalent to
the quantity of money in circulation.

Manipulating a conditioned reflex, arising from the habit of
always giving an equivalent in order to get money, the
central banks succeeded in making the national communities
accept their money at the act of issue as the equivalent of a
debt ( i.e. in the form of loans ) . The greatest fraud in the
recent times has happened and it has a sum total which is
double the quantity money in circulation around the world.

Only in the light of these preliminary considerations can we
understand the real aim of the French Revolution and the
great insight of Ezra Pound, "...thus all the usurers are
liberals ( even if liberals are not all usurers ) ".

Through the substitution of "nominal money" for gold
money we have not only a change in the material structure
of the symbol, but also a profound legal change. The people
have been transformed from owners of money to debtors.
The anguish of the inevitable insolvency which this causes
can easily explode into a social crisis. This was the real
cause of Vandea's revolution in France and of all the other
revolutionary movements, which have appeared in other
countries, on the occasion of the introduction of
constitutional systems of government and "nominal money".
This is the reason why the noblest concept of "democracy",
which means sovereignty of the people, has been improperly
supplanted by "usurocracy", which is the hegemony of the
"great usury", under which the people are only cows to be

This great cultural fraud, which has plagued nations during
the last three centuries, has been possible because the
heads of the banking system have understood that value is
not a property of material, but an expectation or forecast,
i.e. a dimension of time.

In this way, by making people accept the expectation and
hence the custom of being able to purchase with paper
instead of gold, monetary convention has moved from gold
to paper, so that the value of gold could be created with

These developments have occurred gradually. During the
initial phase, the bill issued by the bank ( i.e., the bank-note,
according to Paterson's scheme for the foundation of the
Bank of England in 1694 ) was, on request of the bearer,
convertible into gold. During the later phase, the
convertibility was abolished and the banks thus achieved the
privilege of creating the value of gold with negligible cost,
i.e. "golden paper", which they appropriated for themselves
because they lent it at the act of issue: only an owner can

The heads of the central banks became, in this way, the
owners of the world: the supreme puppet-masters of
history. If money is the value of measure and the measure
of value at the same time, the sums of the monetary units of
measure express a quantity of value which is equivalent to
that of all real goods, measured or measurable in value and
thus creates a mirror-like duplication of their value. This
value can assume either the positive sign of an asset - in this
case it doubles the wealth of the people - or the negative
sign of a debt - and, in this case, it causes desperation and
anguish because of the inevitability of insolvency.

Since the bank issues money ONLY IN THE FORM OF
LOANS, national communities are doubly damaged: firstly
because they are disposessed of their own money and
secondly because they incur a debt of an equivalent amount.
In this way, the cost of money, at the act of issue, has
become 200% to which we have to add additional bank
charges and interest payments.

Usury is now so prevalent that it poses a serious threat not
only to fundamental liberties but also to the very possibility
of humanity's survival.

A necessary reform, which can no longer be postponed, is
to substitute asset-money for debt-money. A new type of
money must be established which has the positive quality of
gold but not the negative one; and the positive quality of
paper but not the negative one. The positive quality of gold
concerns the fact that the bearer is the owner; the negative
quality concerns the fact that it is extremely rare. The
positive quality of paper is that it does not create problems
of scarcity; the negative quality is that, historically, it has
been issued as debt-money.

Therefore the problem can be solved only through the

The thirst for justice, which moves the history of the
nations, is based on such simple ideas, even if they appear
profoundly new. The popular ownership of money has these
characteristics. We hope that the legislature and the
judiciary declare by means of statute or judicial ruling that
money at the act of issue is the property of the citizens and
not of the banks, finally overcoming a serious legislative
deficiency which can no longer be tolerated.

The shepherds who move beside the deserts, fear the smell
of water because they know that when their flocks are
thirsty they can smell it and so may break into an
uncontrollable stampede, trampling down everything before
them. We hope that the judiciary or the legislature, by
wisely using the means of the constitutional state, can
quench the thirst for justice through the peaceful revolution
of "stamped paper". Otherwise, we may witness an
uncontrollable stampede caused by the smell of water in the

Prof. Giacinto Auriti

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:00 - ID#284255)
What's in a RTC?
Users are dodging noncompliant real-time clocks

Now who has a compliant one????

Recently I posted a link to Canada contemplating Martial law.
My source for this link has had it removed.

Anyone know what day I posted it?
What the link was?


(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:06 - ID#206235)
@ Starr / Clinton... The point is being missed
The point is being missed here. Al Capone was finally brought down for tex evasion, not for all his other hundreds of heinous crimes.

Clinton's incredibly stupid sexual dalliances aren't the real point. Yet this Monica business may be the only situation which produced hard evidence of perjury, subornation of perjury, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, et al.

The REAL issues, Filegate, Travelgate, White house firings, intimidation of enemies and witnesses, giveaway of influence, wholesale whoring and selling out every shred of dignity for the office of the presidency in "Coffee clatches" and "Lincoln Bedroom" evenings, etc etc et al.... these are the issues that ought to be discussed and investigated at length. Certainly the least of mysterious deaths seems mighty strange as well.

There are no winners here. The fraud, weasel, slime, known as CLinton has been exposed for what he is. If the only way to do this was to expose his reprehensibly bad judgement in areas sexual ( which ostensibly conducting the country's business ) , so be it.

His legacy will rightly be one of total humiliation...this is as it should be. The country will survive, as will the process and the constitution. Maybe next time we'll actually get a president with some integrity.

Let's not forget, not only did this sleazeball shake his finger at us in chastisement for "not believing him" a few months ago, but he also did the same 6 years ago over Gennifer.

Ironically, 60 minutes finally left their ultra leftist bias behind tonight, and did a decent piece tonight on this Clinton slime. Doubly ironically, it was 60 minutes, where Clinto appeared 6 years ago to promise the electorate that though he "had caused pain in his marriage" we voters could all rest easy that if elected, we could surely trust him to put uch nonsense behind him if we would elect him to the highest office in the free world.

Character doesnt matter? Lying under oath doesn't matter? Firing 80 million in missiles at innocents to cover your Ass doesn't matte? Subornation of perjury doesn't matter? Coverups don't matter? Oaths of office don't matter?

Clinton is and will now remain forever... a sick joke. The sooner the country's rid of his Ass, the faster we can heal from this scab.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:06 - ID#153110)
An Average Idiot American Wants to Know
"the average idiot American does not fathom the effect this will have upon our Constituitional ( not parlimentary ) system of government."

1. What were the high crimes and misdemeanors charged to Andrew Johnson ?

2. Where is the proof that the District and Appeals Courts of the United States have been vested by Congress with full Article III independent judicial power ?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:17 - ID#153110)
"The Process is the Solution ?"
"There is something very wrong with the process, and which runs counter to the spirit of the American legal system, when one can be compelled under criminal sanction to give evidence which is clearly self damaging. It seems like there should be some addendum to the fifth amendment."

Reading it before posting would be a good start.

Apparently, we have a President who is dumber than Mark Fuhrman.

Someone I know spent 63 days in jail for refusing to answer discovery in on financial information in a civil trial. In the end he gave them nothing. He had conviction regarding his right not to testify against himself.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:29 - ID#206235)
@ Puetz...Open invitation to wager
Puetz, regarding your most recent DOW 3000 by the end of Septmeber prognostication. I realize you backed out the last time you had "accepted" a wager with me to put your money where your mouth I'm giving you another opportunity.

I have 1,000 U.S. dollars here, that says you are blowing smoke up our Arses about DOW 3000 by the end of September. My 1000 says that you do not even believe your own hype in this regard. My 1000 says that not only will DOW be well above 3000 on Ootober first, but you KNOW it'll be well above 3000.

Are you willing to also put up $1,000 U.S. dollars Puetz, against mine,
that if DOW is below 3000 on October 1, 1998, you collect my 1,000, but if it's above 3000, I collect your 1,000.0? Both os us to forward the proceeds to a mutually agree third party in advance?

Think of the cyber credibility Puetz! And feel free if you like to double, triple, or quadruple the stakes, if you are so inclined.

Oh yes, I know, you can't tie up 1,000 for a puny 100% return, with a gentleman's wager like this, when you can make much more highly leveraged gains buying S & P Puts instead...but think of it'd be a gloriorly fun cyber bet for us wouldn't it? What's a measly 1,000 for a guy with your resources anyway? Particularly since you'll be guaranteed to get it back times 2?

Looking forward to your reply.


John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:30 - ID#24135)
Dont let him get away
The Raving Reporter..
I quote from Joberg sunday times of sept 13 1998.
.. "a former .. City Center Ballet dancer claims she
saw RK passionately kissing confessed homosexual ..
dancer Rudolf Nureyev in a phone booth. Nureyev is
supposed to have told .. Gore Vidal that he and ..
RK once shared a young US soldier."
.. Some of this may be or may not be mentioned in
"RFK : A candid biography of Robert F Kennedy" by
C. David Heynmann due to be released this week.
The book chronicles RFK long list of sexual conquests.

But this is really what POWER and the pursuit of it
are about in a "democracy" NOT really ruled by LAW but
more by popular opinion.
For example, WJC's constituency has been called out
to support him .. The Black Caucus is FAITHFUL .. the
BLACK churches have immediately rallied to his cause..
suddendly Kitco posters who we rarely hear from have
A key degenerate power seeking pathological
liar who happens to run the USA has been cornered and
Gee .. it cost 40 million $ .. Thats pretty cheap..
These rats are not easy to catch you know .. Of course
he did MUCH more .. but a lying stonewall defense is
hard to crack .. If it hadnt been for Monica and the
blue dress he would STILL be lying and he would NOT
have been caught.
The wolves are circling .. fangs are bared .. watch
out and go for the throat

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:36 - ID#219363)
Investors Head To Safe Havens
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- When the winds of economic turmoil hit world financial markets, investors look for a place to ride out the storm. They flee across borders, swapping Japanese yen or Russian rubles for U.S. dollars. Within the United States, they sell risky small-company stocks and buy government-guaranteed Treasury securities. This "flight to safety" has wide-ranging consequences -- good and bad -- for American consumers, businesses and the government.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
They plan for disaster; they expect little better
Squashing Sea-Tac's millennium bug
And this email comment re Sea-Tac
-----Holy cow...... for those of us from the Pacific Northwest -- this really
strikes home ( funny this did not make the paper did it? )

--- and SeaTac is a high tech kind of airport ( with neighbors like Boeing,
Microsoft, and the Seattle tech scene -- along with the ports of Seattle &
Tacoma -- it is pretty modern and updated on everything ) this statement
constitutes a nightmare!!!! folks on the general state of things ---

these are the reports we need to print out and hand to people --- things
that they may be able to relate to -- once they supplement these reports
with some overall knowledge of Y2K --- it is hard for everybody not to be a
believer of the magnitude of this thing!!!!

I sold 6 yr.. long 4 Adult food packages to an un named CEO of 2 Fortune 500
High-Tech companies ( and I know who he is through some business
associates ) -- and he has reaffirmed to me that the people you think might
have their act together are just like those who have done little --- in a
heck of a mess!!

translation: it's just so big, that even those who are spending so much
money and efforts to make it go -- they are behind -- what about all the
others farther behind, or those doing nothing here in America ? ( 70% of
mid to small size companies according to some figures presented to Congress )
and then throw in the rest of the World ( most doing little or
nothing....... )

I am not a end of the World fanatic -- but day by day I have less faith in
where we are heading with all of this -- and the end results!

Be prepared for "you" --- and prepare for your loved ones, and as many
people as you can who you care about ( I know this is tough because I am
going through it myself ) because I fear what we are about to go through as
a society.

"If you can sleep at night -- you do not have a full understanding of Y2K"
can't remember the author of the quote--- but it is true! )

And when the media and the American public get done someday frothing at the
mouth over "Zipper gate" or "Bubba Gate" or whatever you want to call it
and they are completely overtaken with it !!!! WHAT A JOKE!!!! )

wait till the mainstream media and all of the big companies and the
Government finally says --

"oh by the way -- Y2K is almost here -- and here is the reality of it

it will be panic mode long before 1/1/00 -- prepare today folks -- do not
put it off!!!!!

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:39 - ID#24135)
Roving Bookie speaks..
For bugal ..
You and I know that the chance of dow 3000 are remote.
Puetz would be mad to accept your wager ...
However there is SOME CHANCE of DOW 3000 by september
end .. Id quess about 0.5 % ... Thus a fair bet in
my view would be more like 200 to one.
Say 5 bucks to win a thousand.. Thats fair and puetz
might go for it..
Ill hold the dough.

Paul Gold
(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:47 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Market Report
The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available at

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:47 - ID#24135)
Hey .. wait a minute
For Mozel
Good point .. I had assumed klinton could have pleaded
the 5th but preferred to commit perjury.. assuming he
could lie his way out of it.
This argument may be central .. COULD the rat have
taken the fifth before a grand jury.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:49 - ID#219363)
Asia, Europe
If the US Markets follow the overseas markets, we could see DOW 8000 or higher during Monday's trading. But those markets are no doubt following the DOW today, so who can really say I guess, they can't follow each other around the world forever.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 02:50 - ID#284255)
Europe on a roll
Germany up 3.4%
France up 2.9%

But poor old Russia hasn't updated since the 4th Sept.

Are Russia's share markets still trading?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 03:04 - ID#153110)
The right not to testify against yourself in a criminal proceeding is a personal right. No attorney can assert it for you.

When they say "Do you swear to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth under penalty of perjury so help you God", if you don't want to be there, what should your answer be ?

The bottom line is Clinton likes his job more than Fuhrman liked his.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 03:44 - ID#346209)
Seattle news
Thanks Sharefin for Seattle news via Australia; I am not getting the seattle paper out here in the bunnies. My wood stove is now installed; probably won't be available for purchase next year. Regards

(Mon Sep 14 1998 03:51 - ID#254321)
D.A.: Good points once again. How can Kenneth Starr's investigation be 'ongoing' without a new agenda? How can anything in 'the wings' really be available for impeachment proceedings?

If there is more to K Starr's report than what he sent to Congress, why have we not heard about it? Rumors would come out very quickly.

It is possible that the tide could turn once again at a critical point, Janet Reno is able to withstand the buffetings of the Republicans, and keep a lid on the Campaigngate and Commercegate investigations.

I think the only thing that could substantially turn the tide toward impeachment would be some significant revelations before KS has to shut down is office. Perhaps something new will wind up in the hands of the Republican impeachment committee.

Any idea how much time K Starr has left before he must close shop?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 03:56 - ID#219363)
Warm Fuzzy Feeling
Glad to see the world markets doing well today, maybe we can finally get the US market rally going, the one we've been waiting on for days and days. Bulls are excited, and as a bear, so am I, it means I won't have to wait very much longer.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:03 - ID#254321)
House to vote soon on possible impeachment
All: This is not what I expected, given that I thought this was to be shelved until after the elections. Interesting -- and will they discuss more than what is in the Starr Report? Why would they do this, if they did not have more information? What is going on behind the scenes?

When do the 'real audio' versions of the Linda Tripp tapes come out?



(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:09 - ID#254321)
What about this?
D.A.: Perhaps this backup material has not had enough time to leak out. Some insiders claim there is enough material here for impeachment.
It would be clever of KS to have something in reserve, just in case the first shot fails to hit the target.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:29 - ID#254321)
More info on the backup material
All: There is a comment that KS has only released a small portion of what he has. Apparently there are 2000 pages of additional controverisal material that would embarrass 'innocent people'.

I wonder why? Perhaps the other stuff is more controversial and damaging to the United States government. We do know there are some things that will never see the light of day, such as the Mena Arkansas connection, and its coverup, as this was bipartisan. A portion of the CIA was apparently involved, as were some professional drug dealers. Too embarrasing for many members of the government.

Could there be some secret deals now being discussed with the president: 'If you resign, we will not press these criminal charges, and you will get a full pardon?'

If there is more, and it is sigificant, it will be amazing if it does not soon leak out onto the net.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:46 - ID#252391)
Your Clinton piece is the best I have seen. Say's it like it is - well expressed - totally and fully agree. You have clear perspective.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:47 - ID#24135)
Dirty old Starr ..
To all ..
It kills me that the klinton defenders attack the
Starr report for being salacious .. Starr's only course
was to document the sexual nature and emotional nature
of the relationship in response to WJC gratuitous perjury to
the effect that he did NOT have a sexual relationship
in the LEGAL sense bullsh!t.
To criticise Starr for pornography is like the old
joke about killing your Ma and Pa then requesting
clemency of the grounds that you are an orphan

(Mon Sep 14 1998 04:57 - ID#386245)
The 'Clinton Hallway'
There is a room in the White House that has, until recently, received little attention. The 'Clinton Hallway' appears to have been one of the busiest rooms in the country. The workers in this room have given ( or should I say received ) their all for their nation. I suggest that the importance of this room in the nation's affairs should be recognized. It could be decorated with pictures of all 'recipients' of executive substance. Guided tours could help the nation's taxpayers recoup $40 000 000 in investigative expenses. Let capitalism flourish and give this room the publicity it deserves.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:09 - ID#252391)
Gold off $4 Silver off 6 cents
Quick sell off from the downtrend on the weekly gold chart. Is this a buying opportunity. Decline pretty much in line with rising dollar.

Generally, it seems the thoughts here say gold to pull back, stocks to rally at least a bit. S&P only up 200 points.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the DOW to fail quicker then the "little rally" seeers are expecting. Gold - well I'm looking at 288 basis October, give or take a few dollars. I'd like to think gold would quickly recover but I don't think enough of a base has been made to sustain a rally through $300.

Noticed PD is or was down $16 after getting through $300 - if that is a good quote it may project a fall to 25 1/2 in SWC where I'd like to see it.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:09 - ID#288295)

Outside of the Starr Report contraversy

GOLD $292.80 ( -4.00 )

SILVER $4.96 ( - 0.065 )

as I write this.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:10 - ID#288295)
Those were Dec Futures quotes

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:19 - ID#24135)
sweet harmony..
to all
jse-golds off about 5 per cent ..
Harmony level .. they announced last
week purchasing another freegold shaft
from anglos .. another 5 mill in the
resource department .. These guys
want to become the next Anglos .. they
passed Barrick long ago ..

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:25 - ID#386245)
Viagara now for sale in Oz
Does it help raise the POG??

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:47 - ID#26793)
Dollar firm on Clinton survival ratings

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:50 - ID#26793)
IMF remarks seem to favor capital controls for Asia

(Mon Sep 14 1998 05:54 - ID#26793)
Rubin, Greenspan and Japan discussed capital controls to stop derivative trading

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:03 - ID#26793)
$2 million worth of missing Yugoslavian gold found in Italian flower pots.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
Brazilian hard currency reserves drop $18 billion since early August

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Economists say Brazilian meltdown is likely

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:18 - ID#43349)
Brazil raises rates and stocks surge
More and more countries have learned that the proper defense against high US rates and a strong dollar is to raise your owm rates counter intuitve though it be. England raised their rates and continues to hold them high despite dire predictions of recession at the time.

True, raising rates may tend to slow economic growth to some extent, but not raising them or even lowering them leads to more loss of local liquidity and flight to the US.

Japan continues to march to the beat of her own drum.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:21 - ID#26793)
Indonesian rupiah firms after IMF comments favoring capital controls

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:25 - ID#411440)
Morning all: I thought I would post just to let you guys/gals
know I am still alive. There is no pm lease rate data. Anywhere.
Even the World Gold Council's weekly report is missing. My last
figures indicate one month gold lease rates were still under 1%.
But those figures were as of Sept. 4. I have seen rates change
by 0.6% in a morning.

IF lease rates are still at .4%, we have no bull, and I have to predict
that gold will have great difficulty testing $300. If we can't go
up, then we will be shorted down again. Lease rates move before
spot POG. This is the pattern for the last 10 years. IMHO

Happy tradin' Rhody

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:26 - ID#43349)
Uh oh
Globex indices, bonds, Dollar, and oil all looking up this morning while precious metals fade.

Refuge dollars in gold and particularly gold stocks are liable to leave and go hunting in the markets, particularly in light of recent profits in same and still depressed market shares.

Day traders will be coming in on the long side, if the market fails to fade thru the mid-day not only will there not be an afternoon sell off, but we might end up with another one of those +400 days.

I don't think I would want to be in the XAU today.

By the end of the week, though....

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:30 - ID#26793)
Platinum and palladium warehouse stocks

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
Russia seems to back off of plan to print enough money to pay internal debt.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
Gold mine production data and cost of production figures

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:46 - ID#347447)
LGB, Puetz - this "bet" is interesting. Those of you with an ephemeris, please look at October 1 and 2, 1998. ( If you have to ask what an ephemeris is, you don't have one ) .
On Oct 1 & 2, Mars is at 26 Leo. At that degree, it is in exact square ( generally stressful 90 degree angle ) with NYSE Sun, and in exact conjunction with Bill Clinton's Sun.

If that degree of Leo is meaningless to you, stop a minute and look at a chart of the Dow or the S&P - Mercury hung at that degree, and within 3 degrees of it, in its recent retrograde from July 24 thru early August. If this is what a square from little Mercury did to the Market, AND Bill Clinton, Mars might be verrrry inneresting during the last few days of September and the first 2 days of October. Mars is a far more consistently "aggressive" planet than mercury as far as astrological "effects" are concerned.

Perhaps 3000 Dow is a bit extreme, but for what it's worth, astrologically ( NYSE horoscope astrology -mundane style - not Puetz' eclipse stuff ) the aforementioned days DO promise to offer STRESS, or at least VOLATILITY, in the lives of the NYSE ( the stock market as a whole ) and Bill Clinton in particular.

IMHO, naturally

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:52 - ID#72316)
bear chow
sorry if this has been posted....rb

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:54 - ID#254112)
Al Gores Relations to Lenin's Friend Armand Hammer
Albert Gore Sr., the father of Al Gore, was the closest friend and associate of Armand Hammer, America's top communist financier Armand Hammer. Al Gore Jr. was trained in Lenin's iron law of conspiracy.

So writes Michael A. Hoffman II in a publication of The Independent History and Research Company.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:55 - ID#93241)
oil's looking good...
Crude Oil

The short term and long term crude oil price forecasts have been changed to reflect recent changes in the production, refining and market sectors. On the current track of inventory drawdown, U.S. refiners will be in a position to buy crude oil at normal, historical rates by October. Purchases are expected to increase in October and November, then drop temporarily while the refiners adjust inventories for fiscal year accounting. High inventories of distillate ( heating oil/diesel ) will plague U.S. East and Gulf Coast refinery operations, making it difficult to run units at normal rates, until the distillate inventories decrease. Assuming distillate demand picks up in fall months and assuming distillate imports remain very low, the system should be normal by December.
In the meantime, if OPEC and other producing nations, including the U.S. stay on the current trend of reduced production, demand is likely to exceed production by spring 1999.
Please notice that there are several key assumptions built into this forecast. Most importantly, the forecast is based on the assumption that producers will continue on their current trend of curtailing production. If production picks up again, this forecast will not hold.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 06:59 - ID#93241)
Nixon was good friends with Armand Hammer too. Hammer helped Nixon with policy of detente in the early 70's.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:04 - ID#222231)
Mike Sheller-The Bet
Dear Mike,

I hope for a pullback in the equity market as much as anyone else on this board. I also hope it is'nt too drastic for that would hurt everyone including goldbugs.

However, I would like to see Puetz's prediction come true for one reason. TO SEE THE MERDA ON THE FACES OF THOSE THAT TAUNT THE HELL OUT OF HIM. THE SAME PACK THAT ENJOYS PUTTING DOWN ANYONE TO SATISFY THEIR HUMONGUS EGOS. They will say as usual that they are only exposing a fraud. As if anyone on this board is too stupid to judge for themselves.


Best regards


(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:21 - ID#242325)
Has the same take as APH. Bounce to carry a little further, then a drop to Dow 7000 commences.

for 9/14/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 9/11/98 close: 10.87

Return on current trade: 6.15%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 17.67%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -8.48%

Market Commentary:

The bulls managed to snatch a minor victory from the jaws of defeat
Friday. With heavy losses in Asia and Europe, Wall St. looked like it
was headed for a debacle Friday. However, it was not to be as bulls
pulled off another hail mary to save the day, as they held critical
support at 970 SPX in the early going, and then pushed through strong
resistance in the SPX 990-1000 area with a late short-covering rally.
All told it was another classic example of "sell the rumor buy the
news", as the much anticipated Starr Report contained no surprises, and
thus set the stage for a frantic round of short-covering late in the
session. So, the bulls won Friday's battle, but in our estimation the
war is far from over. In fact, we see Friday's gains as having little
potential for follow through beyond another 1-2 days at most before
another severe decline gets underway.
A popular trade for short-term traders is to buy the Friday
afternoon prior to expiration week and to sell into the first sign of
strength during expiration week. If Friday's late rally was due in part
to this phenomenon, then we can expect it to last no longer than
intraday Monday or Tuesday morning at the latest. Another extremely high
TICK reading of +950 was registered at the close Friday. Closing TICK
readings that high usually signal a short-term top within 1-2 days.
Also, our proprietary buy/sell indicator could produce a sell signal at
the close if Monday's trading sees another strong up day. The current
wave structure of the market also suggests to us that this rally will
top sometime between now and Tuesday 9/15. From that point we would
expect to see a strong decline lasting 4-6 days, and taking the market
down to at least SPX 900, and DJIA 7000. Critical support is currently
seen at 970 SPX, and a break below this level will signal that the next
downleg is underway. Conversely, critical resistance is seen at SPX
1040, and a break above this level will signal that a much larger rally
is underway. Such a rally would still be a bear market rally, but it
would have the potential to reach the 1100 SPX area and possibly last
several more weeks. We think the probablity of such a rally occuring is
quite low. More likely, we feel that the current rally will fail far
short of the 1040 SPX level. Initial resistance is at 1010-1020 SPX,
with additional resitance at last weeks intraday highs of 1027.72 SPX.
If 1027.72 is surpassed Monday, which we think unlikely, then look for a
run to the 1040 region.
We told subscribers Friday that short-term sentiment indicators had
reached levels that were slightly bullish from a contrary standpoint.
Friday's late rally was enough to bring those indicators back closer to
bearish levels. For instance, the OEX put/call ratio fell from
Thursday's bullish 1.40, to a borderline bearish reading of 1.01 Friday.
Also, the Rydex ratio dropped from 186% to 140% between Thursday and
Friday, as Friday's comeback rally shook out weak handed bears. The
question now is whether more bears need to be shaken out Monday before
the next downleg can get underway. Strength in Asian markets at time of
writing, and the positive spin out of D.C. on Clinton's chances argue
for some follow through short-covering rally Monday. But we expect these
gains to be relatively short-lived.
Market internals improved Friday, but were not nearly as healthy as
would be expected with such a strong rally. For instance new highs
remained mired in the low twenties at 24 issues, an improvement of only
3 new highs over Thursday's reading. New lows also remained dangerously
high at 392 issues. At the risk of overstating the obvious, these are
clearly bear market numbers. Breadth was improved at 2068 advancers to
979 decliners, but again not as strong as would be expected given the
extent of gains in the major market indices. The bulk of the gains are
coming from only a handful of issues. This a very unstable condition. If
this rally is unable to broaden out, it will likely turn out to be yet
another 1-2 day dead cat bounce. On the positive side for bulls the
McClellan Oscillator did pop back above the zero level, which is a
mechanical buy signal for many portfolio managers, but also tends to
produce whipsaws.
So, we currently choose to remain in the Ursa fund, as we feel this
latest bounce will be yet another false hope for bulls. We look for a
short-term top in 1-2 days, followed by a sharp decline to new lows. For
short-term index options traders, we would look to enter puts on a rally
to 1020 SPX. We would close out puts on any move above 1027.72 SPX, or
if your predetermined stop loss threshold is hit first. If 1027.72 is
exceeded, we would then look to re-enter puts on a move to the 1040 SPX
level. We don't recommend trading the September series at this point,
due to rapid time decay, and would instead concentrate on the October
series, looking to buy puts 1-2 strikes out of the money. Remember, when
trading options one should never use more than 5-10% of trading capital
on each trade, and one should always employ a stop loss. We typically
use a stop-loss between 25%-50% for each trade, but each trader must
assess his/her own risk tolerance.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:28 - ID#365216)
Thanks everyone
Thanks to all for making this one of the most interesting, informative,
cooperative, friendly forums of information exchange I have ever seen.
I truly believe that information shared here could one day soon actually
be life-saving.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

That is all.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:32 - ID#35571)
o Several years of low production have guaranteed a rise in demand for gold which will far exceed existing supplies.

o Due to the shortage of deliverable gold, central bankers have raised the gold lease rate by 81%.

o Gold stocks in bonded warehouses are at a critical low, not nearly enough to meet current market demand.

o We are rapidly reaching a crisis in the current gold supply/demand situation. For example, Switzerland will probably not sell their gold since voter's won't allow it.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:32 - ID#424424)
What is Shepler's web address or maybe phone number?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:36 - ID#242325)
Agree with all you say about Clinton. But let us never forget that Clinton would never have made a splash in national po;itics without the support of Goldman Sachs. He was and is their creation.

What does this say about WallStreet morality? Simply put they didn't give a damn as long as Clinton helped their partners get richer still. But now that he is becoming a liability, they may abandon him.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:44 - ID#29048)
WSJ - Metals
September 14, 1998

Precious Metals Roar Back, But Can the Rally Last?


Lately all that glitters is gold, at least on the stock market. Since Aug. 31, the Standard & Poor's index of gold and precious-metals stocks has risen more than 42%, though the index is still down around 8% since the end of last year. In addition, the closely watched Philadelphia XAU index of gold-mining and silver-mining stocks is up 39% since the end of
August. That compares with just a 5.4% increase in the S&P 500 index and a 3.4% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same period. It is the biggest upward swing in precious-metals shares since the spring, when Warren Buffett's silver acquisition gave some metals stocks a boost. What is behind the upward push this time? The first and most direct reason is a parallel price revival in the commodity markets for gold and other precious metals themselves.

The yellow metal has been on the upswing since late August, as volatility has whipsawed the world's stock markets. On Friday, the key December gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division settled at $296.80, up $3 after steeper gains earlier in the week. At one point in intraday trading, the contract pushed above $300 for the first time since early summer. Of course, that is still far below the contract's year-ago price of $337.90.

Silver also has recovered from its post-Buffett doldrums, pushing above $5 an ounce last week. The December contract on the Comex finished Friday at $5.025 an ounce, down 2.5 cents, and down more than 30 cents from $5.336 an ounce when the contract began trading a year ago.

To be sure, some analysts believe the recent precious-metals bull markets may be temporary. In the case of both the stocks and the metals
themselves, the rallies have been off of historic lows. Just weeks ago, gold prices were languishing below $280 an ounce, at 12-year lows. Silver had lost much of its luster earlier in the year. Precious-metals stocks, meanwhile, had performed terribly. At Aug. 31, before the hefty gains of the past two weeks, they were down 36% since the end of 1997. Even the most vehement gold bugs admit investors still aren't flooding into metals shares, or into gold and silver.

But while there is no flood, there is certainly a trickle. A major catalyst for gold, according to traders, investors and analysts, has been the weakening dollar, which after flying high for months, has stumbled recently against the Japanese yen and the German mark and may be losing some of its appeal as a "haven" from turmoil.

Significantly, some new gold and silver buyers are new to metals plays. Fred Ehrman, vice chairman at Brean Murray & Co. and a self-described long-term investor, recently bought shares in two mining companies, including Apex Silver Mines Ltd., which is backed by George Soros. Mr. Ehrman says he has never put money in gold or silver stocks before but
believes looming deflation and a weakening dollar warrant such investments now. "The dollar has been a good place to be," he says, "but I expect the U.S. economy to weaken next year. What is the alternative to the dollar if you say, "I have this capital and I want to maintain its value?" Gold is the most obvious answer, and the fundamentals for silver are even better. Even a 5% portfolio allocation [to gold and silver stocks] will result in enormous demand" for the metals.

He adds, "People who are still focusing on the strong U.S. economy are looking in the rearview mirror." Apex Silver shares fell 25 cents to close at $8.50 in American Stock Exchange trading Friday.

Precious-metals mutual-fund managers say they are seeing heightened interest from both individuals and institutions but that most small investors remain cautious. Small investors "aren't going to be first to
step up to bat on this," says Gil Atzmon, who manages two gold-stock funds for U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio. Still, Mr. Atzmon says his marketing staff has seen "money coming [into the gold funds] from sources we've never seen before," though he notes the investors aren't necessarily first-timers to the gold stocks.

Jean-Marie Eveillard, who manages the SoGen Gold Fund and earlier this year looked likely to recommend that shareholders pull money out of it, says he isn't yet ready to issue the fund's death sentence. "If you had asked me the question two months ago, before all hell broke loose, I would have said I would wait until December [to make a decision] but that I wasn't optimistic," he says. "Today, I'm more optimistic." SoGen is a unit of French bank Societe Generale.

Some precious-metals mining analysts remain skeptical that the rally will continue. Douglas Cohen, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, says
much of the recent upturn in gold prices has been the result of short covering, which occurs when investors with bearish bets close out their positions and take profits by buying. He says gold-mining shares also
were oversold and due for a rally, with the XAU index's declines far outpacing those of metals prices. But "it's too early to say whether it will be a sustained rebound," he says. "Unless you see continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, enough questions are still around to keep gold from staging a major breakout."

Mr. Cohen says he rates most gold-mining stocks "neutral" but has an "outperform" rating on a few, including Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. Those with direct ties to the trading floors where metals change hands also recommend caution. Scott Meyers, senior technical analyst at Pioneer Futures Inc., notes that gold's rally resulted from "lots of different factors coming together, but none of them have to do with the fundamentals of gold. There's still plenty of gold available."
But there is also a shift toward a more positive view of gold and silver in the commodity markets. Hedge-fund managers say they are becoming
interested in putting some money directly into the metals, and in some cases already have.

Peter Madsen, who manages $350 million through Alpha Asset Management, a hedge fund and commodity-trading adviser, says two weeks ago he bought gold, along with copper, "for the first time in years. Gold's [price] breakdown was the perfect sign of a bottom in the market. I'm not a gold bug or a gold bull or a wild-eyed maniac out telling the gold story, but you can make the case that none of the currencies of the world appear to be that sound right now."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
More talk of interest rate cut.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:47 - ID#39857)
Way to go Bill! With the US consuming 40% of Earths resources, who gives a damn? Rates DOWn. JUST CAUSE HE IS IN THE BLUE CORNER, WHO'S IN THE RED?. HA HA

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:50 - ID#26793)
Dollar slips in European mid-day trading.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:52 - ID#288399)
Clinton/IMF/Interest rate cut
According the Reuters, Clinton to make speech in New York City today which in a "veiled" manner, sends a message to Alan Greenspan that he should cut interest rates. Also, Clinton is to reiterate US support for further IMF funding. After all, that's what Slick Willy's job really is: reward the people who put him in office, and that includes keeping Rubin's IPO afloat.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 07:56 - ID#35571)
Whipping up the market
Sounds like Mr. Clinton is doing what he can to shift focus to the markets. Perhaps some of his advisors told him much of his popularity has to do with how well the markets are taking care of 401k plans?

Maybe he feels he needs a little more popularity right now?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:08 - ID#29048)
@Speed (WSJ - Metals) ID#29048:
Thanks for the WSJ post. It says a lot when a fund manager says that he is seeing some buying from sources that typically one would not expect to purchase gold stocks.

Now if we can just get the POG to hold firm or increase for the next few days.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:15 - ID#288399)
PPT/"UP" day
Could it be that the PPT has waited until the Starr Report "settles in" before trying to goose the equities market again? It will probably be a "barn burner" today, but there's a chance Sir George Soros' testimony before a Congressional committee ( don't know which one ) could spook the markets, especially if he says something about Brazil like he did about Russia, or if he says the IMF can't work. Praying for Sir George to speed up the paper debacle......

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:16 - ID#35571)
Japanes public holiday Tuesday
Overnight markets will be thin.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:20 - ID#119358)
@Old old gold-man sachs...........
uh huh....well put. "But now that he is becoming a liability, they may abandon him."
the mainstream media has already abandoned Clitton....much to the dismay of media's ownership and executive management. Mr. GE better snap the talking boys and girls back in line or the G.S. IPO is dead.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:23 - ID#213265)
@the scene
I see that the previous day call volume in gold shot up quite nicely to over 25,400 from where it had been hanging about 1-2K, even through the runup. Put volume remains near 1-2K. Silver call volume didn't follow suit.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:27 - ID#35571)
This is not good news. Too many sheeple on the call side is bearish.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:28 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Gollum -- So who says they are 'sheople'.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:30 - ID#287114)
Donald - 6.03

Licio Gelli was indeed a very colorful character. He & P2 became renowned for the millions of dollars they scammed from the vatican.
God bless him.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:33 - ID#29048)
People will take some profits today and maybe tomorrow. I expect improvement by mid-week.

Late last week, the Japanese government indicated that it would oppose an
IMF plan for bailing out Ukraine. The reason: Japan was tired of the
West's willingness to help CIS countries when it is unwilling to bail out
Indonesia and other Asian nations.

Rifts continue to grow between East and West. This is good for gold.
Away to my day job. BBML

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at, or send your name,
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Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:38 - ID#347447)
...and perhaps Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment was a veiled message to Bill Clinton about his zipper.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:41 - ID#286262)
The following comes from the home page of J.Orlin Grabbe. Does anyone know who the shareholders of the IMF are?

Good News Department
IMF Nearly Out of Cash
Will Stan Fischer Have to Get a Real Job?
WASHINGTON, Sept 13 [ ( Reuters ) ] - The International Monetary Fund said its reserves were running low after big rescue deals in Asia and Russia, leaving it with as little as $5 billion to cope with mushrooming problems elsewhere.
First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer told a news conference about the IMF's annual report, released on Sunday, that the fund had just $5 billion to $9 billion available to lend, taking account of the need to let member countries draw on the cash they were depositing with the lending institution.

But he said the IMF was nevertheless ready to do what it could to help Latin America, where countries have jacked up interest rates to protect currencies and where markets are reeling from the knock-on effect of Russia's financial woes. Fischer called on the United States and other countries to come up quickly with extra cash.

"The situation in the global economy unfortunately, very regrettably, is becoming extremely difficult and the resources now available are limited in ways that are unhelpful to increasing confidence in the international system," he said.

But selling some of the IMF's 104 million ounces of gold reserves was not the answer, Fischer said.

"We are not going to operate in a way which puts our shareholders' resources at risk," he said. "We need to hold those gold reserves as the ultimate assurance to our members of the value of their claims on this institution."

The IMF's annual report said countries borrowed $25.6 billion from the fund in the financial year to April 30, nearly four times as much as in 1996/97. IMF liquidity ratios have fallen sharply.

"As you can see today, the demands on the fund's resources are not declining right now," Fischer said. "The fund's role in Latin America is also at issue."

The IMF said on Friday it was ready to put together rescue packages for Latin American countries. But Fischer said the fund had not received a request for help.

The IMF, set up to rebuild the world financial system after World War Two, receives money from member states in the form of quotas -- effectively subscriptions to the institution.

Rich countries also contribute to a special $23 billion emergency fund, the General Arrangements to Borrow, which was used in July for the first time in almost 20 years to provide part of a big loan to Russia.

Fischer declined to speculate on what would happen if the U.S. Congress did not approve a Clinton administration request for $18 billion of extra cash, some of it to increase the quotas and some to create a new emergency fund, the New Arrangements to Borrow.

But he made clear that failure to approve the money could have a bearing on Washington's role in the institution. The United States is the IMF's biggest shareholder and its 18 percent of the votes gives it veto power over major decisions.

"There are decisions of enormous importance being made now about the role the United States plans to take in a global economic system that it ... created in 1945," he said.

"It is not a small decision to decide to abandon that system and I think we should not at this stage be crossing hypothetical bridges as to how the world would look if the U.S. Congress decides not to support the IMF."

Fischer said he still hoped Congress would approve the extra cash, which would unlock payments from other states.

"There are countries out there who need assistance," he said. "The system needs a functioning IMF, able to provide assistance to members who are doing the right thing and who, for reasons not under their control, are facing great difficulties."

Deputy finance ministers from rich industrialized countries are meeting in London on Monday to discuss Russia's problems and work out what can be done there and elsewhere.

Some observers expect ministers to float the idea of a fund which could be disbursed to help countries combat speculative attacks on global markets. It could be unveiled at the annual IMF conference in October.

Reuters, September 13, 1998

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:45 - ID#287279)
Finally someone tells it like it is
Ken Starr Tanks Again
OYSTER BAY -- Clinton scandal watchers have long had reason to be skeptical of Kenneth Starr's investigative efforts. His four year long Whitewater investigation has produced little with any direct impact on the Clinton White House...
...Yet a preliminary examination of Starr's report, as well as numerous news accounts by reporters who have poured over the document, finds little if any evidence that Starr has addressed these more serious matters...
...The biggest Starr shocker may turn out to be what he intimates about Linda Tripp in footnote 126 of "The Narrative" section of his report. In a revelation that seems premature at best, Starr insinuates that Tripp may have tampered with evidence to nail Clinton by doctoring at least one of her Lewinsky tapes. The footnote states that several of the Tripp tapes "exhibit signs of duplication," revealing that:
"One tape exhibiting signs of duplication was produced by a recorder that was stopped and restarted during the recording process..... These preliminary results raise questions about the reliability and authenticity of at least one recording, which in turn raises questions about the accuracy of Ms. Tripp's testimony regarding the handling of the tapes."
The footnote adds that Starr is "continuing to investigate this matter."
Come again? Vernon Jordan is off the hook but now Starr is investigating the key witness who handed Monicagate to him on a silver platter? Surely if the FBI's suspicions about the handling of Tripp's tapes are legitimate, then Starr should investigate. But why slip this tidbit into his report on the basis of an incomplete "preliminary" investigation, when it has such devastating implications? After all, Starr's Travelgate and Filegate investigations have surely turned up some damaging "preliminary" evidence. And though both probes are "incomplete," Starr stays mum on those subjects. He even attempts to silence his own witnesses when they're subpoenaed by other probers looking into those matters, as he did recently when he had his deputies derail Judicial Watch's attempt to depose Tripp. So what gives here?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:46 - ID#347447)
I'm still long a few inneresting astrological plays, the other half in gold shares, so pleeeeze don't hope for any catastrophic market plunge on Steve Puetz's account. Have a little mercy on me. At least til' around March of next year, when we should all be long oil shares and making money with the yellow & black gold.

I do share your admiration of Puetz. Though I have given him a sting now and then ( here's a guy who follows eclipses, yet he tells me astrology is totally unproven as far as he's concerned ) I have never been cruel to him. I love anyone who gets out there and makes bold predictions. We're all gonna do what we're gonna do in the markets, but sharing our outlook with people with like interests is simply FUN. It won't change the world, and I agree that nobody gets "taken in" by anyone unless they want to. And that's a valid service in a free market too! Hey, some people like to get spanked.

I think Steve has integrity, in which case it's ok to be wrong here and there. He DOES take a position that is a POSSIBILITY in the entire market equation. It is an extreme one, to be sure, but extremism in the defence of an analysis is no vice.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:50 - ID#286262)
@Mike Sheller
I am struck by the fact that during the market dive pre-Gulf War that Iraqi troops were massing on the Kuwati border. Now, we have latest projections of 200K Iranian troops on the Afgan border within "a few days". Do you see any significant astro for that?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 08:56 - ID#35571)
From Steven Jon Kaplan:

Friday, September 11, 1998: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has fallen from EXTREMELY BULLISH to STRONGLY BULLISH as commercial net long positions have dropped moderately from historic highs, typical of a strong rally.

So if the commercials have lowered long positions, I would assume it's sheeple getting in on the long side.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:06 - ID#258195)
Rhody 06:25 am today @ Gold Lease Rates
Rhody : I calculate the lease rates ( 1, 3, 6 and 12-month ) each day from data available in the Financial Times.

I take the "Loco London Mean Gold Lending Rate ( vs US$ ) " for each of the aforesaid time maturities from the equivalent Interest Rates which are given under "Dollar LIBOR BBA London"

Thus the rates for last week, Monday 7th to Friday11th Sept worked out as follows:

Period | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri,,,,,,,

1-Month | 0.60,,,,,,,0.62,,,,,,,,0.59,,,,,,,,,,0.57,,,,,,,,0.53

3-Month | 0.83,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,,,0.80,,,,,,,,0.76

6-Month | 1.47,,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.46,,,,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.40

12-Month| 1.69,,,,,,,,1.69,,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,1.63

I have to say that I have read your comments about the relationship between Gold Lease Rates and the forthcoming dollar price of gold, but have not seen your evidence of past events to prove your case. ( I may well have missed it ) .

For my own purposes I have plotted the 3-month rate as a weekly candlestick chart since December 1990. Looking at my chart, I see that the 3-month Gold Lease Rate was ( for example ) flat in the range 0.4 to 0.8% for 18 months between Feb 93 and Aug 94. During that same 18-month period , however, the POG rose from $330 in Feb 93 to $405 in July 93, fell again to $350 in Sept 93, and then climbed steadily back to around $385. How would that varying POG have been forseeable by the steady Lease Rate?

I do know that conditions are now rather different, with the Non-Commercials having been shorting gold heavily since April 96 ( possibly egged-on by A Greenspan to give the impression of a strong dollar ) . And as was explained by George Milling-Stanley in his speech of Nov 5th 1997 to the Tenth Nikkei Gold Conference in Tokyo ( and subsequently reported in the World Gold Council's Quarterly Demand Trends No 21 of Nov 97 on page 17 ) , gold borrowing rates can provide some clues as to when hedge funds are active in the markets.

( G M-S explains how inversion of the lease rates [eg when 1- or 3-month rates are higher than 12-month rates]can indicate, on a day-to-day basis that Non-Comm Speculators are active ) . But he acknowledges the message is by no means simple to read.

For example, Lease Rates can be driven up either by a rise in the $ LIBOR, or by a change in the gold contango, or by a fall in the amount of gold available for borrowing, or any combination of these three factors.

I would appreciate your further comments.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:09 - ID#30126)
Clinton & Greenspan
Clinton is now talking the Greenspan talk on deflationary concerns. Can a rate cut be far behind? What I think doesn't matter. What matters is what Mr. market thinks............. And the band played on as gold pulls back. OPEC to meet this week. Hmmmmm.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:11 - ID#35571)
Clinton speech

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:15 - ID#30126)
Perhaps the Arab oil producers feel more 'comfortable' with $17 oil? Questions, questions... WHERE ARE THE ANSWERS! :- ) )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:18 - ID#30126)
Well the view from Mt. Washington ( New Hampshire ) doesn't look so bad today.

Neither does the current conditions.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:19 - ID#30126)
I hate it when that happens.........
Well the view from Mt. Washington ( New Hampshire ) doesn't look so bad today.

Neither does the current conditions.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:19 - ID#222231)
Mike Sheller
No, I do not wish for P's prediction to come true, but the thought of seeing their reaction would almost be worth it. Once a recidivist always a recidivist. Who said that?

Ciao amigo,

Pete BBML-Going fishing in the smallest big lake.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:22 - ID#317193)
APH....think I'll kiss that person if we ever meet....
and Disney too! : )

These people can "see" the forest for the trees.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:24 - ID#317193)
or is that trees for the forest?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:32 - ID#335190)
Russia invites IMF to Moscow for urgent talks

LONDON, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - Russia has invited the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to send a team of experts to Moscow this week for urgent talks, Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov said Monday.

Mamedov, speaking to reporters after briefing senior officials of the Group of Seven industrial countries about Russia's economic crisis, said: "We have issued an invitation to them and hope they will come.

This is very important for them and for us."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:38 - ID#229207) says: Rah! Rah! Rah! Let's have a rally!
Market Update
If youre not in the market it looks like you ought to be. The world is suddenly a much more investor friendly place with analysts predicting that we could be seeing an extended relief rally. Interest rates appear to be headed lower, Japans moving forward with banking reform, the Brazilian currency crisis seems to be subsiding, the Starr report held no new surprises and McGuire and Sosas homerun derby is giving everyone a warm fuzzy feeling. What more could investors ask for? All of the major European and Asian markets finished up last night, leaving a strong opening in Brazil this morning as the only stumbling block between us and a full blown rally.

I can think of another stumbling block: tumbling corporate earnings.

Echoes of 1929.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:41 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Swissair flight had original Picasso painting aboard

HALIFAX ( CP ) -- Swissair officials said today that an original Picasso painting worth $1.5 million US was aboard Flight 111 that crashed into the sea, killing all 229 aboard.

Another artwork was also on the plane, Swissair said. The identity of the painting was unknown.

At a news conference today in Zurich, Swissair official Klaus Knappik said the painting -- entitled The Painter -- was aboard the aircraft along with two kilograms of diamonds and "49.8 kilograms" of cash.

Altogether, there were 14.5 tonnes of freight aboard the aircraft and 500 kilograms of mail.

A valuables container on board contained 49.8 kilograms of bank notes wrapped in plastic. The money was being sent from a U.S. bank to another U.S. bank in Switzerland, Knappik said. Its worth wasn't known.

A "diplomatic consignment" was also aboard the plane bound for the United Nations in Geneva.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:42 - ID#432130)
Bear Trap Alert!
Pre-open Market sentiment seems to be Bullish this morning. Watch for the Bear Trap today! This afternoon will be a feeding frenzy!!

Got Gold?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:48 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

G7 to decide this month on emergency summit

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Leading industrial nations will decide in the next two weeks whether to hold an emergency summit to discuss turmoil in the global economy, the British government said Monday.

A spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair told journalists such talks would take place only after a meeting of Group of Seven ( G7 ) finance ministers in Washington on Oct. 3.

"A meeting is not ruled out, but it's not definite either. What we want to do is take all the discussions that are going on and draw conclusions as to whether a world economic summit would be useful," the spokesman said.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:52 - ID#229207)
RESEARCH ALERT - Disneycut after Q4 warning
NEW YORK, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - Walt Disney Co.'s ratings
were cut by several brokerages Monday after the entertainment
and media company said it expects fourth quarter earnings to be
lower than last year's.
-- Morgan Stanley lowered Disney to outperform from strongbuy.
-- Salomon Smith Barney lowered Disney to neutral fromoutperform.
-- Goldman Sachs removed Disney from its recommended list
and rated it market perform.
-- Deutsche Bank Securities cut Disney to accumulate frombuy.
-- Disney said Friday it expects earnings per share of
$0.15 to $0.16 in the quarter ending September 30, excluding
charges of about $0.02 per share. The company reported pro
forma earnings per share of $0.19 in the same quarter lastyear.
-- Disney said it expects fiscal 1998 earnings per share of
$0.88 to $0.89, compared with pro forma $0.86 last year.
-- Disney closed Friday at 27-5/8. ( ( -- Wall Street Desk, 212-859-1730 ) )
In case you didn't see this Friday.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 09:53 - ID#324266)
Is this what you're looking for?
Date: Sun Sep 13 1998 04:26
sharefin ( British Openly Prepare for Y2K Martial Law )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:04 - ID#147201)
Dabchick your 9:06
This is an excellent analysis of Lease Rates. I know you will enjoy rhody's commnets- he is thorough and very pertinent. Could you please post your charts? Or if you prefer my email is Thank you for this, Charlie

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:06 - ID#258427)
A lot of volume
in DROOY this morning ... over 500,000 shares traded ...down ~3/32 to 2 1/2 ,,,wonder what a good entry price would be for the next surge?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:08 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Clinton to call meeting on world financial crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton will call for a meeting in the next months of finance ministers and central bankers from key industrialized countries and emerging economies to discuss the world financial crisis, a White House official said Monday.

Clinton will ask Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan to call the meeting of Group of Seven countries and key emerging economies in Washington, the official told reporters.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:09 - ID#26350)
Astrological projections (to Mike Sheller)
What date do you use for the NYSE as far as drawing a chart? Clinton is represented by Mercury ( Buddha ) in his natal chart as it is the ruling planet of his rising sign ( by many analysts born about 8:00 a.m. on 8/19/1946, rectified birth time, since no one has the exact certificate of birth time ) the sign of Virgo. I believe this a true time as you can almost always tell when Mercury makes a station because Clinton changes his tack, mind, comments and or/goes in the opposite direction ( like Mercury ) . But this would not necessarily also be true of the NYSE. According to Hindu or vedic astrology his sun in Leo is in the 12th house, not the best placement for success with adminstrative duties. The 12th house is considered a "dustana" house, a house of losses. Mars in his natal chart is in Virgo conjunct Venus ( and Neptune ) as you know. Since the sun's fall eclipse was in Leo again this year pehaps that was his low point, also note that precious metals have risen since then. Traditionally gold is to be bought when the sun is in Leo and sold in January or February per the ancient texts ( like corn and other yellow items ruled by the sun ) , although I think the world is much smaller in the information age of technology than in ancient times. I don't have my calendar, but I'll bring an emphemeris tomorrow. Regards. P.S. Also note the position of Saturn in Clinton's chart, opposite his Jupiter since April 17, indicating humility and respect for teachers and mentors is the best course. He should have been more honest since you cannot have a President that lies, no matter what his private life is like. I think that is the lesson he must learn here.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:11 - ID#372262)
Where's EB? Heh..heh..heh!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:15 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

China, Japan agree economic boost is needed

BEIJING ( Reuters ) - China and Japan agreed Monday on the need to stimulate their economies in their first high-level talks on Asia's financial crisis, a Japanese official said.

Both sides sought to put a positive spin on the all-day discussions, which followed months of public acrimony fueled by Beijing's frustrations over a weak yen and Japan's failure to boost growth and help Asia out of recession.

The Japanese official said the yen's weakness was a major theme of the talks, but the atmosphere was "not harsh."

A Chinese foreign ministry statement also portrayed the talks in a positive light, saying they "played a role in promoting economic stability in Asia and the world."

Japan's economy has shrunk for three straight quarters, hitting bilateral trade and investment. By contrast, China has been pumping money into its economy to spur growth.

China's exports to Japan fell 4.3 percent in the first seven months of 1998 on a year earlier, Chinese statistics show.

Japan's direct investment in China fell by around 30 percent in the first half of 1998.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:17 - ID#317193) to instill confidence in the market....
Tell everyone there is a world financial crisis. You heard it from your President...ought to scare anyone with half a mind.

Do not worry...we will call a meeting and fix everything. Dah!

Off to work...good luck folks, I think the world will need it.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:17 - ID#269409)
@ MArket loves CLinton again
Quite a rally going today.... bad for Gold eh? Yes, the market loves Clinton. To demonstrate what stupid mindless, head in the sand sheep we U.S. citizens are..... when we FIRST read the Starr report Friday, firsthand for ourselves and all...Clinton's ratings dropped like a rock.

Now that we've had a weekend of media spin about all this just being salacious stuff from Starr, etc. ad nauseum, Clinton's back in the plus column, all is well, and the oversold DOW is soaring again.....

What a bunch of sheep.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:21 - ID#284255)
Close but not quite.
I was after the one on martial law in Canada.

Seems it has disappeared off the web like the one you just showed.
These reports seem to have a short shelf life.


Here's one for the Canadians.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:25 - ID#430260)
It is pathetic. He's taking no heat at all anymore for what he did to Kathleen Willey. --AG

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:29 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz/Pete.... Still offering the GOLD.....
Puetz. I've decided that my bet offer would be more appropriate if denominated in Gold coin, don't you think?

Also, JD is quite correct that in the interest of fairness, I ought to offer odds. OK, in that vein, and since the market's WAY UP already it was last's my offer, good for 24 hours.

If you'll put up 2 Gold 1 Oz. coins ( VP, Maple, AE, your choice ) , I'll put up 5 Gold i Oz. coins ( AE's in this case... ) .

DOW above 3000 on October 1, I get the 2 Gold coins, DOW below 3000, you get 5 Gold coins...whaddya say Puetz? Offer good for 24 hours.....

It won't even cost us anything cause we can send "worthless paper" U.S. dollars in to Bart or RJ and have them concerted to Gold, to be shipped to the appropriate address on the First of October.

Oh Pete....fee; free to take this action since you're critical of my making the offer and asking someone who prognosticates here at length once again, to put money where mouth is. Remember Pete, Puetz isn't just some investor shmoe, spouting opinions. Nope, he's a widely published author with a Newsletter and Doomsday book out, as well as being a credentialed analyst.

Shouldn't folks like this who's sole aim is to influence investors decisions, be asked to back their views once in awhile, even in such small measure as this?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:30 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Former president Yang, China modernizer,dies

BEIJING ( AP ) -- Former president Yang Shangkun, a general-turned-politician who helped modernize China's army and then sent it against student-led protesters in 1989, died today. He was 91.

China's state-run Xinhua news agency said Yang died of an illness, but did not elaborate.

A top army commissar, he took part in the 1934-35 Long March, the Red Army's epic flight from Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist forces.

After the communist victory in 1949, Yang directed the general office of the party Central Committee, the centre of power.

Yang played a major role in the 1985-87 campaign to reduce the size of the army from 4.2 to 3.2 million and to introduce modern training for an army schooled only in guerrilla warfare.

But Yang was also suspected of trying to establish a family dynasty within the military.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:35 - ID#284255)
Thanks but I found it.

Here's a good picture of the errect man.
Click on the pictures to follow the story.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:37 - ID#269409)
@ Gusto Oro
It is indeed pathetic. And Kathleen Wiley is just the timiest tip of the iceburg on the good people Clinton has smeared. In Kathleen's case, it is particularly pathetic though, that Clinton tried to force homself on her immediately after her husband had died, and she came looking to him for help. What a sleaze.....

I completely believe the "cat" story, in spite of certain Naysayers here who would have the completely opposite view if this guy were Republican.

But then, people who live off NEA grants, SSI grants, Affirmative action jobs, and all other manner of Govt. redistribution programs...fight HARD to keep their bennies right?

That's CLinton's constituency.... Hollywood liberal phonies, Ultra leftist socilaist phonies, hard core DNC operatives who would defend this guy if he was caught on video molesting children, a leftist media who admits that 92% of their ranks always votes for the Democrat, tons of people on the dole, and "Soccer Moms" ( this last one I don't understand...oh well..... )

Pathetic is the word, I agree...

Bahhhhh bahhhhh

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:45 - ID#24135)
gee ..
prophet ..
I wish I WAS 24..

LGB ..
well said .. but he's gonna come
unstuck .. just wait

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:47 - ID#284255)
DOOMED: Report Card Year 2000 Progress for Federal Departments and Agencies

The report does not only show the grades and gives insight in the quarterly
progress, it explains also HOW grades were assigned, WHAT they mean.

A 3 agencies = finishing before the March 1999 deadline
B 5 agencies = finishing later in 1999
C 3 agencies = finishing in 2000
D 7 agencies = finishing in 2001
F 6 agencies = anything after 2001

The shocking truth is that finishing means just having only the
MISSION-CRITICAL systems compliant WITHOUT having tested them. You know
that thorough testing is absolutely necessary and needs a LOT of time.

Agencies which earned C, D or F are TOAST ( breakdowns of mission critical
systems are determined ) .
Agencies rated grade B are TOAST as well because there will be not enough
time for sufficient testing.
Agenices with grade A have a SMALL chance to make it in time.

12.5% of the agencies could make it. Who would object that the Government
is doomed??

Got gold?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:50 - ID#258195)
Chas @10.04 re Lease Rates
Chas - Thank you for your message. My charts are manual only at the moment, and my Spreadsheet program has crashed. However, I will endeavor to get something to you at 10.00 am Kitco time on Saturday if I can.

Regards... Dabchick

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:52 - ID#333126)
what's happening in Brazil today?

doesn't seem to have quotes today. ( of all days ) . Ditto Russia ( that's a longer standing problem though ) .

what's the skinny?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:52 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel....You're quite welcome
Re the post you put up yesterday, I assume the "compliments" you refer to re your intellect and all.....are the ones that appeared in the second paragraph? You know "phony, worthless, steaming, lump"?? Dude, Short squeeze, limit up today.....

Date: Sun Sep 13 1998 01:46
farfel ( @LBUGal...thanks for the compliments.... ) ID#17077:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...As one of Kitco's more prolific posters, I appreciate your compliments regarding my brainpower.

It was really unnecessary.




Date: Sun Sep 13 1998 01:32
BUGal ( @Miro.... Kitco is such an excellent collection of minds ) ID#206235:
Copyright  1998 BUGal/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Miro, I appreciated your comments to me earlier re my Clinton rants. As you know, I've not been one of those
chatting him up much here in the past....he's ALWAYS made me sick though. Generally I try and remain
somewhat satirical and tongue in cheek when making harsh criticims but this Clinton truly makes my blood boil
like few can.

One of the things I appreciate about Kitco, is that it is not composed of the "average" idiotic man on the street
mindset. There is a collective brilliance here that doesn't tolerate fraud for long. I Notice that virtually everyone
here has Clinton pegged as the phony he is. Few people here are fooled by this worthless straming lump called

Gandalf the White
(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:55 - ID#433301)
Looks as if the PPT is having a "Meeting"
S&P Futures have been up over 1000 points from the opening.
Wait til they break for lunch. Then "look out below",

(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:55 - ID#335190)
USofA Fast Track @ MAI Agreement (Multilateral Agreement on Investment)
September 14, 1998

U.S. says supports APEC liberalisation plan

KUANTAN, Malaysia, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - The United States denied on Monday it lacked authority to negotiate "fast track" trade deals within the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum.

The U.S. ambassador to the 18-member forum, which is negotiating "fast track" trade liberalisation in nine industry sectors at this eastern Malaysian beach resort, said Washington would take part in all nine sectors.

Fast-track authority would enable U.S. President Bill Clinton to negotiate trade deals that Congress could vote for or against but not amend.

A fast-track bill stalled in the House of Representatives in November after Clinton failed to muster enough votes, mostly among his own Democrats. Labour unions opposed it.

The Clinton administration now wants Congress to hold off this year on the fast-track provision because of the political problems it has created, deeply dividing Democrats in the House.

Multilateral Agreement on Investment

The MAI is a treaty about international investment that is currently being negotiated under the auspices of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) , and represents a critical element of a larger strategy to codify the rules upon which a global system of production and trade depend.

While this agenda is fundamentally the project of the worlds largest corporations, it also enjoys enthusiastic support by many OECD countries including Canada.

This support appears founded on the faith that sustained market-driven growth will bring wealth and economic stability to the world community.
In order to achieve this prosperity, governments need only allow market forces to operate unfettered by regulation or other government "interference".

Crystal Ball
(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:56 - ID#340392)
Tech Talk
Y'all see the two day island reversal in just about every gold mining stock? ( see HM or ABX ) We are goin' lower, MUCH lower. May even retest the low to mid 50's area on the XAU. So keep your powder dry for that glorious buying opportunity!!!

Spud Master
(Mon Sep 14 1998 10:56 - ID#28586)
re 10:37 posting...
Ok, who forged LGB's password?

Spud, gulp of FRNA to ya'

Spud Master
(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:00 - ID#28586)
Shhhhhhh! I use EB as my new contrarian indicator! Besides, we were supposed to wait until December to report the price of Disney ... somewhere around 9, 10, 11 ...

I sure miss your rational exuberance...

Spud, pondering the XRS-2200 engine ICD

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:04 - ID#147201)
Dabchick your crash
I'm very sorry about the crash. I have had some and it is not pretty. Thank you very much for this reply. Looking forward to your work- at your convenience, Charlie

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:06 - ID#284255)
Email chatter - would they do this under open eyes?
Today they unloaded nine trucks, and then were let go early
because some additional expected trucks didn't show. It takes two
guys about 1-1/2 hours to unload a truck, and each gets $35. Don't know
if this space has been used to store mre's before, but that's on the list
of questions to scope out. It does seem to be a government contract,
the supervisors seem sure of that. It has been confirmed that this is
new, that is, it isn't the regular cold storage location for Ft.
Leonard Wood, etc. One of the other laborers said that each truck
had 3500 cases, so today there were nine trucks times 3500 cases
equals 31,500 cases. Anybody know how many mre's are in a case?
This would seem to be literally an enormous amount of food, as if
there were six mre's in each case, that would mean 189,000 means
were unloaded today alone, and today was a short day. He was called
back to work at 3:30 in the afternoon, but the expected trucks still
didn't arrive.

A case is 12 meals, BTW. Four man-days of meals per case.

I received a telephone call from a highly credible source. This
informant told me that government employees recently attended a Y2K
meeting in Orange County. At this meeting, one of the handouts was a
listing of all the Mormon Canneries. Even more disturbing was the
fact, these employees were casually told not to make this public so
that they could have the necessary time to acquire their long-term
storage food first.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:16 - ID#284255)
The premium has just rolled out to a new month.
Fair value looks now to be around 11 - 12 points.
I think they just rolled over to the Dec contract.

Likewise the gold contract has rolled out to Dec GCZ8.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:16 - ID#333126)
interesting news from down under
Jitters increase as Brazil falters

Japan's bank rescue in doubt

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:18 - ID#431200)
Is High Tech Recession-Proof? Don't Bet on It
Monday, September 14, 1998 Is High Tech Recession-Proof? Don't Bet on It By GARY CHAPMAN The wild gyrations of the stock market in recent weeks, combined with the frightening turmoil in Russia, Asia and Latin America, have shaken many people in the high-tech industry. Uncertainty in the world economy has led some to question the widely shared view that high tech is immune to the business cycles that periodically plunge us into recession.
There are still optimists, of course. Esther Dyson and Donna Hoffman, two prominent technology gurus, told the magazine Industry Standard that the Internet's economic growth is so strong that a recession won't be significant for information technology firms or workers.
They and other industry analysts argue that whatever happens in the economy as a whole, information technologies have "crossed over" from luxury goods to necessities, and that the cost savings from electronic commerce and from restructuring enterprises around networks will offset any losses from depressed revenues.
But the recent jolts in the stock market should prompt some deeper thinking about the character of the "new economy." It's too facile to say that computers, software and the Internet have become necessities for individuals and companies; the high-tech economy is far more complex than that.
If we take a longer, bird's-eye view, we can see that we've created a system with many strengths and an equal number of vulnerabilities. Some of these strengths and weaknesses have the same sources.
What is the nature of the high-tech economy in the last few years of the 20th century?
What we've witnessed over the last 20 to 25 years is the United States' extraordinary ability to pile layer upon layer of "value-added services" on top of a mature industrial and agricultural base. For the last half-century, nearly all the productivity gains in the U.S. economy have come from manufacturing and agriculture, which now employ small fractions of the national work force--2% to 3% in agriculture, 15% to 16% in manufacturing.
The wealth generated by these two "basic" sectors of the economy has allowed us to develop and refine a service economy that now employs the majority of wage earners.
We began with an initial layer of applying computers to business problems. We soon added business-to-business solutions, then more general networking, then Internet ubiquity.
Microsoft, Intel and the major hardware manufacturers still thrive at the base of our pyramid of value-added services. But layered on top of this base are countless companies that constantly push technology and the character of value-added services, so that at the apex of this pyramid you find cutting-edge companies exploring technologies and ideas that only a handful of people have even heard of and whose mass-market appeal appears distinctly distant. At this apex we find obscure but "cool" Internet features, eccentric but potentially promising services, and intriguing ideas that may or not succeed in the marketplace.
This has been the great strength of the American economy, which no other country has even been able to approach, let alone compete with.
But this system also has significant vulnerabilities. Each layer of value-added services is dependent on the health and growth of the one beneath it. All of them are dependent on the perception of customers that the value offered is indispensable. The further up one goes in this pyramid, the more likely it is that the technologies and services are those that consumers could forgo in hard times.
Viewed one way, during good times, this pyramid of "value-added" is as strong as the stone pyramids of Egypt. Viewed another way, in an economic downturn, it's a house of cards.
A related trend, again a feature of both strength and weakness, is globalization. The high-tech industry is, at the base, thoroughly global: You can find Dell, IBM, Compaq, Apple and, needless to say, Microsoft products in nearly every country in the world.

Globalization creates another kind of pyramid, one of pure value, of simple wealth and influence. Bill Gates sits alone at the top of this pyramid, as the man with the most influence around the world because of the wide distribution and universal utility of his company's products.
Fifty years ago, nearly every city or region had its own pyramid of value--its own industries and tycoons and distribution of wealth. Now, however, we have a single, global pyramid of value, a consolidation of formerly local economic units into worldwide competition. This sucks money out of many areas and deposits it wherever the winners happen to live and work.
Consequently, we have some famous regions in the U.S. that are overdeveloped and awash in money and talent--like Silicon Valley, Seattle, New York and Austin, Texas--while other areas are underdeveloped and sliding further behind, such as rural America. The effects of this trend are even more severe among the rural poor in other countries, the overwhelming majority of the world's population.
These two "pyramid" phenomena feed on each other, producing both a winner-take-all economy that covers the entire globe and a corresponding concentration of technological development that is increasingly "baroque," favoring over-engineered, feature-bloated products and superfluous services that are more and more remote from the basic needs of most consumers.
The growth of the U.S. economy in the last 10 years has been based on three factors: the willingness of Americans to accumulate consumer debt, now at a record $1.2 trillion; export-led growth, which depends on the health of economies overseas; and technological innovation, particularly in information, which now accounts for a staggering 40% of all capital investment in the U.S.
Each of these three growth factors is now threatened by worldwide deflation, which will squeeze debt repayments, depress overseas markets and cut research and development.
The precarious position of new firms on the cutting edge of technology may become even more precarious as customers decide they can do without innovations or upgrades and venture capitalists scale back their investments.
The root of nearly all of our economic problems is the deep, stubborn and expanding income inequality throughout the world, which will be exacerbated by all the trends described above, especially deflation. A global pyramid of value dependent on a small fraction of income earners, and on technologies that most people can live without, is built on sand.
This is the long-term threat to the "new economy," one that most high-tech leaders seem unable to comprehend, let alone fix.
Gary Chapman is director of the 21st Century Project at the University of Texas at Austin. His e-mail address is

Copyright 1998 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:18 - ID#347185)
Sharefin -MREs
12/case of full meals -Main dish, side, dessert, crackers, condiments, drink, candy, gum and tissues. 1200-1800 cal.

72/case of main dishes or sides.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:19 - ID#333126)
interesting article on Japan's woes on Global Intelligence Update today

Sep 14th only. check the archives if you're looking at this site later than this.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:19 - ID#229207)
ravenfire: ADVISORY - Brazil stocks not updating
SAO PAULO, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - Quotes on Brazil's Bovespa
stock index are not updating due to a technical problem
in the United States. Reuters hopes to resolve the problemsoon.
( ( --Sao Paulo newsroom, 5511-248-5414 ) ) REUTERS

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:20 - ID#269409)
@ Spud... Will the real LGB please stand....
Hey Spud, I've ALWAYS despised Clinton. How I ever got a reputation as one who would give him a SHRED of support is beyond me. Certainly I voted against him both times. Unfortunately, the Republican candidates put up against him where not exactly paragons of brilliance and leadership..but either Bush or Dole would have been a vast improvement over the slimeball...nonetheless. ( I'll leave Perot out of this, being he's insane and all... )

JD..I HOPE that you're right. At the very least, his legacy will not be what he and his co-president wanted now will it?

But I fear that officially, all that's coming is a "censure" unless Janet Reno stops being his lap dog and allows investigation to go forward on all the REAL issues. I've never liked Starr's approach, nor the areas in which he was going...but I believe his hands may have been tied on this.

And you're so right, the salacious detail was necessary because the CLinto liars...I mean lawyers...would have backed his finger wagging, in our face, claims that he "didn't have sex with that woman"...unless all the gory details be made public.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:25 - ID#219363)
US Markets
Pretty okay looking rally going on. I read something over the weekend ( I believe Barron's on Sunday ) that said that money that had moved out of the market and into money markets seems to just be sitting there - investors don't seem very willing to put it on the line and have taken a "show me the money" attitude.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:29 - ID#228262)
Come-Let Us Learn From History !
To all:
The present global financial turmoil is of great
concern. Unless something is done soon we could
be headed for a worldwide depression that would
not exclude AMerica.

WHen George Washington assumed the Presidency in
1791 he was confronted with a financial crises
because of the fiat paper currencies issued by the
original 13 States under the Articles of Confed-
eration ( 1781 ) . This crises was the reason for the
Constitutional Convention of 1787 which produced
our present Constitution. This document fobid the
States from using anything but gold and silver for
legal tender in payment of debts. The Federal Govt
retained the power to coin money to be used by the
several States. Re:-Federalist Paper #44 by Mad-

Alexander Hamilton, Treasury Secretary, in a bril-
liant move, solved the crises by fixing the US$ to
gold, and then promised creditors full payment
with interest, this included the non-backed Cont-
inental Congress debt paper used to finance the
American Revolution.

The crises was resolved with America enjoying a
stable currency and high credit rating for the
next 180 yrs until Pres. Nixon took us off the
Bretton Woods gold backing of the US$ in 1971.

From 1971 our national debt climbed to its present
5.5 Trillion $ plus another 7 Trillion in unfunded

Mssr's Jack Kemp and Jude Wanniski have recently
been imploring Mr Alan Greenspan and the Adminis-
tration to abandon the present system of using US
Treas. debt as global banking reserves. with
floating exchange rates, and to instead mount an
organized effort to provide liquidity, to address
the deflationary spiral, while attempting to fix
the world's currencies to-you guessed it-GOLD !
Re:-"MEMO ON THE MARGIN" BY J. Wanniski @www.

I urge all to write their govt representatives et
al. asking them to give serios consideration to a
paradigm ( model ) that was successfully used by
Washington and Hamilton 207 yrs ago.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:30 - ID#284255)
They could always send a truck over here.

Makes on wonder when the generals start to pack up for a holiday.
Of course they are thinking of their troops.

Thinking on how hungry they're going to be and using them to make sure that they don't miss a meal.

I wonder what you have to do to get an entry pass.

Would three stars do???

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:31 - ID#431200)
Denied the Clintons have made a loveless pact to stay together to stay in power: She loves him ... T

By MARILYN RAUBER WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton has forgiven her cheating husband, but ought to give the First Philanderer a good smack, her pal, Linda Bloodworth-Thomason, said last night.

If the First Lady wants to smack the president, there'd probably be a lot of women in the country who would applaud - maybe one good smack, Bloodworth-Thomason - a Hollywood TV producer who's known and coached the Clintons since their days in Arkansas - told CBS's 60 Minutes.

She added it would be a shock if the First Couple divorced over the president's fling with intern Monica Lewinsky.

Bloodworth-Thomason, producer of such hits as Designing Women, denied the Clintons have made a loveless pact to stay together to stay in power: She loves him ... There's never been any such deal, she said.

It ^a divorce_ would be a shock much more than this. If they did not stay married for the rest of their lives, that would be the most shocking thing that I have ever heard, she said.

Lewinsky has testified, however, that Clinton hinted he and his wife might split up once he was out of office, telling her, I might be alone in three years.

Bloodworth-Thomason said she knows Mrs. Clinton feels that he genuinely is sorry and I know she has forgiven him because she has told me so.

But she also acknowledged that Mrs. Clinton - whose icy public behavior toward her husband has started to thaw - likes being the president's powerful wife and may be putting on a bit of an act to save his neck.

She can circle the wagons better and faster than anybody I've ever known and I think she's doing that around him now, she said, but emphasized: I don't think it's really about power. I think it's about them. She loves him.

It was Bloodworth-Thomason and her producer-husband Harry who advised Clinton to forcefully deny the affair - which he did in January, angrily wagging his finger at the TV cameras as he denied having sex with that woman.

She said the president misled them too and said she was not happy about it, but she denied they coached him on how to appear that day: There was no advice to wag your finger, clench your jaw. Harry's his friend, he's not his drama coach, she said.

Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton apparently is still seething at her husband in private and is working out her anger by feverishly working out in the First Family gym, equipped with a privately-donated treadmill, bike, stair machine and weights.

Time magazine said Mrs. Clinton has taken to vigorous workouts and is so enthused about her state-of-the-art exercise equipment that she talks about it as if she's hosting an infomercial, according to an ex-aide.

Mrs. Clinton's spokeswoman Marsha Berry told The Post that it was turning 50 last year - and not her hubby's sexcapades with a 21-year-old - that got her hooked on exercise.

Berry confirmed that Mrs. Clinton has no plans right now to go all out for her husband by making a stand-by-my-man speech.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:32 - ID#288399)
You guys know that announce John Siegenthaler, Jr. on MSNBC? Well, one day while reading through a list on line of member of the Council on Foreign Relations, was suprised to see that John Siegenthaler, Sr. was on the list. Think he got his kid a job perpetuating the status quo??? Just wondering.....and the WJC speaks there shortly today, will he be trying to perpetuate his status quo. How could a guy from a state with a population less than that of NYC become President without a little "help", as it were...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:32 - ID#284255)

Since my last update, I have resigned my position with the Internal Revenue Service and gotten an honest job as a computer consultant. I'm bouncing around the globe fixing computers with Year2000 software problems. There are more problems than people to fix them, to put it mildly. The good news is that most of the federal and state agencies we love to hate will be paralyzed. The bad news is that we lose a lot of things we've come to depend on for comfort and survival, with the attendant potential social consequences.

Many thanks for your well balanced view.
Much appreciated.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:33 - ID#269409)
@ Clinton's smear of a war hero
Speaking of Clinton's smears of decent folk..did anyone else follow the story about how a decorated war hero, career military officer who had the temerity to critisize Clinton on Geraldo's CNBC commentary show, was "smeared" with lies that he had falsified his military record?

Oh yes, that Clinto lackey Geraldo, was used by a "WHite House Insider" with "personal firsthand" knowledge, used to discredit the guy on nationwide T.V.

Turns out that with further investigation, and due to the extreme outrage poured out from folks in the military who knew better and had the records, the "smear" was immediately proven totally false.

To HERRaldo's credit, he came back on air the next evening, tail between legs, and retracted his White House insider supplied lies. I can't remember the officer's name, I believe he had specific knowledge about CLinton's phony Ass covering, 80 million dollar attack on Sudan.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:36 - ID#431200)
A downturn in Latin America is potentially much more serious for U.S. banks than the collapse of the
By KIMBERLY SEALS McDONALDCould the next market shock lurk in derivatives? Bank stocks have been in a virtual free fall on Wall Street as investors fret over the potential fallout from their exposure to the tumultuous emerging markets such as Russia, Latin America and Asia.

If bank balance sheets weren't already taking hits on several fronts, major U.S. banks are also principal players in the derivatives market and there's renewed speculation that an unknown amount of risky derivatives exposure may be waiting in the wings.

Friday, shares of Lehman Brothers were hammered, falling 7 percent amid speculation that the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm is in financial difficulty.

Traders said the rumor mill pegged the problems to vast losses from derivatives. Lehman issued a statement saying it categorically denied as baseless and irresponsible rumors circulating ( Friday ) morning concerning the firm's financial position.

Derivatives, those funky financial instruments whose value is derived from another asset, like stocks, bonds and currencies, became Wall Street's dirty little word when financial portfolios exploded in 1994. The highly complicated agreements are designed to hedge against certain financial risks, but work best under steady conditions and can behave poorly in bad times.

Although the scope of the global derivatives market is large and quite lucrative, the lack of public disclosure makes it difficult to get a handle on it. With derivatives, the contracts are privately negotiated and the value of the deals are not disclosed on public exchanges, such as the stock market.

Some estimates have calculated that some $10 trillion in derivatives contracts are set to mature this year for U.S. banks. And some analysts suspect that between Russia, Asia, Latin America or wherever the contagion spreads next, there will be a number of clients who won't pay.

Despite the staggering numbers, some analysts maintain that the sky is not falling on banks and that a derivative explosion is not imminent.

The banks have already disclosed their losses and exposure and their derivative exposure is included in those numbers. There's nothing out there looming, said David Berry, director of research at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods.

U.S. banks, including BankAmerica, Bankers Trust, Chase Manhattan and Citicorp were owed $6.8 billion in loans, derivatives, foreign exchange and other securities by Russian companies and the Russian government as of March 31, according to a division of the Federal Reserve.

Unfortunately, industry watchers note that history has proven that typical derivative models are often unable to fully measure the scope of risk in sudden financial disasters. Risk management consultants say the real severity is usually not known for some time.

The wreckage from Russia alone is expected to be great. According to Brown Brothers Harriman, U.S. banks have relatively small $7.68 billion in exposure. Derivatives are included in that amount, but other undisclosed positions could further compound the banks' derivative problems.

Analysts expect banks to boost their loan loss provisions on some loans from Russia, crimping third quarter earnings.

While Russia may not be significant enough to cripple earnings, Latin America is a different story, analysts say. All bank rating agencies agree that a downturn in Latin America is potentially much more serious for U.S. banks than the collapse of the Russian economy.

Last week Latin American markets were disintegrating, and the region's linchpin, Brazil, is experiencing unprecedented outflows of capital and facing the threat of a currency devaluation.

Many of the banks looking for a foothold in Asia and other less-developed markets used local banks as an intermediary instead of dealing with weak credit counter parties. Those same banks have been in a swift downward spiral in most emerging market regions, leaving them less able to cover their own exposure.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:41 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

FOCUS-Most G10 economies still sound - Tietmeyer

BASLE, Switzerland, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - The economies of most major industrial nations are still sound despite the upheavals in some emerging markets, central bankers from the Group of 10 ( G10 ) countries agreed on Monday.

"The governors noted that fundamentals in most of the industrial economies remained strong," Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer told reporters after G10 bankers held their regular meeting here at the Bank for International Settlements.

Monday's meeting was the first by G10 central bankers since early July, and took place against a backdrop of huge turbulence on world financial markets that has triggered some calls for concerted interest rate cuts to prop up the global economy.

He also did not field any questions about interest rates amid speculation in financial markets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy at its next Federal Open Market Committee on September 29.

Tietmeyer, speaking on behalf of his G10 central bank counterparts, urged member countries to give the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) all the resources they have pledged to help it deal with global financial emergencies.

He did not specify any particular countries, but a key U.S. House of Representatives panel voted last week to earmark just $3.4 billion for the IMF, far short of the $18 billion the White House says the IMF needs to deal with global turmoil.

The G10 actually comprises 11 countries -- the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Canada, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:41 - ID#269409)
Clinton / Jimmy Swaggert
Did anyone else see a smiliarity between Clinton's pathetic "tearful" prayer meeting apology for his sins last Friday...and Jimmy Swaggart's nationwide tearful apology for his sins?

I think the sincerity level was similar....when caught, deny deny deny..wag your finger at us, deny some more...till they have the DNA then apologize and blame Starr.

Wasn't this suppsoed to be the "New" Democrat party of "Values"??

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:49 - ID#174239)
Clinton Scandal Political Progostication
Politicians are always playing a type of chess game against each other, the public, thier doners, etc. Here is how I think this particular match might play out:
1. Clinton will fight hard until around Feburary 1999. If at that point the impeachment issue has not been dropped, he will resign at the urging of his party. Republicans will probably succeed in makeing sure that the issue is not resolved one way or the other.
2. Gore will take control and focus on some crisis like terrorism, the Y2K bug, or something new. He will not grant a Clinton pardon, nor refuse to grant him one either. Clinton will have to fend for himself for now. He will no longer face impeachment but will have to at least defend against purjury.
3. Around May 1999 Gore will start campaigning in earnest, Emphasising that he has a lot of strong character and avoiding the appearance of having anything to do with Clintons shadier shenanigans.
4. Meanwhile Republucans will keep the Clinton scandals alive to damage Gore and the other democrats. Family values will be a major Republican plank. Clinton himslef will delay resolution as long as possible.
5. After the election, no matter who wins, Gore will generally Pardon the Clintons for these scandals ( without mentioning anything by name ) . Just as Ford did for Nixon, citing the same reason: "the good of the country".

I'm possible wrong, but we will see.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 11:50 - ID#269409)
@ Note to Clinto from Boris Yeltsin
Yes Mr. president, I would be happy to provide a big "kickback" in IMF funds toward your legal defense fund. Conditions are as follows;

I need a promise that another 10 billion in IMF money will be forthcoming, of which at least 8 billion is earmarked for my
personal use and mafia bribes.

I need U.S. military GPS missile targeting and computer technology
to boost our demoralized defense forces with upgardes to weaponry.

I need much caviar and Vodka when I come to the states, all to be provided in the Lincoln bedroom.

I want one of those Serb-Croation type women with names like "Plokinsky"
for company...preferably such a woman being 21 or under of course.

For these small considerations, I promise to provide at least 100 thousand or so kickback toward your legal defense fund.

Your pal,


(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:01 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

FOCUS-Clinton to seek measures to contain economic crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Clinton will call Monday for a globalmeeting in the next few months and other steps to contain the world financial crisis, a White House official said.

Britain is the current chair of the G8, which comprises the Group of Seven -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States -- plus Russia.

"There will be no mention of interest rates in the speech," the official said of Clinton's speech, scheduled to be delivered to the Council on Foreign Relations at 11:50 a.m. EDT .

Newsweek reported in this week's edition that Clinton would issue a veiled exhortation this week to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to lower rates. The White House official said there would be no mention of rates.

"He will say the balance of risks ( in the economy ) has shifted and that we must also be concerned about deflation," the White House official said.

The president will also endorse the use of the International Monetary Fund's General Arrangements to Borrow fund, to help contain the global financial crisis

"We are in a very, very scary time," an unidentified official involved in financial policies on Asia, Russia and Latin America told the New York Times. "Clearly, the prospect of a weak American leader only adds to the impetus around the world to sell."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:01 - ID#31855)
Crystal Ball re: your 10:56

Seems other gold stocks have that island reversal pattern ( BMG, PDG, TVX ) you mentioned.

I have several questions.

1 ) If we get the retest of 50 for the XAU, would that signal the "true" beginning of the gold bull?

2 ) What are your feelings towards the oil services sector? Will they follow the example of the XAU and also correct?

3 ) What would you be purchasing in either sector if and when we get a correction?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:08 - ID#119358)
Ten or twenty billion of printed dollars given to the IMF is not that much cost for feeding the slaves for the next few months. Our global workers need some carbohydrates, maybe a wee bit of protein too! not too much, now. It's just a small increase on our imbalance of trade.......a pesky little surcharge on imported goods made with $10. oil, $2.50 wheat and 50 cents ( or less ) / hour labor. Work for Uncle Sam!!!!! Be part of the Global Wealth!!!!!

where's C. Chavez when he's needed? this is pathetic......never underestimate the power of the media and the bankers. salud!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:11 - ID#320202)
I am spending 3-5 hrs. per day reading kitco, ( some days easily more ) it became one of my major sources of information and I will take this opportunity to thank everyone for there contribution, still, many posts fall through the time slot, one hardly can read every post !
I am missing some important links, like , what is that with the dried food? ..where could I get it in canada ?.....and mostly, what time frame are we talking here, does anyone has an idea, for how long, how many days, weeks, etc. one has to plan ?
Thank you for your support

oh yes, and what is the importants of sept.17 ?? I read somewhere sept.19 is a turning point in the xau ?? ( fibonacci ) which way ? help!!!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:17 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Gunfire breaks out in Albanian capital

TIRANA, Albania ( CP ) -- Gunfire broke out today and tanks lumbered through Albania's capital after protesters carried the bodies of a slain politician and two others to the office of Prime Minister Fatos Nano, whom the opposition blames for the deaths.

The situation rapidly deteriorated and within an hour, the government appeared to be losing control of its own capital. By mid-afternoon, thousands of people were milling about Skanderbeg Square, firing weapons in the air.

The seemingly spontaneous unrest and the brandishing of firearms threatened a repeat of riots that swept the country last year after the collapse of pyramid investment schemes that cost many Albanians their life's savings.

One group stormed the government's television studios, sending many of the staff fleeing. An unidentified man appeared on television, announcing "we have taken over."

The United States and the European Union have expressed fear that the turmoil could spread elsewhere in the Balkans, including Kosovo. Berisha has openly supported Kosovo Albanian rebels, who maintain sanctuaries in northern Albania.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:19 - ID#30126)
Gold will be hammered one more time. The oil services sector is a trading game short term, bullish longer term. A couple of things are happening right now with Clinton acknowledging deflation and no need to fear inflation. We have OPEC thing and G7 meeting. Odds seem to favor a scare of some type ( guess which way! ) and then inflate? Just my opinion. It's not worth very much......... Oooppppps! I almost forgot, impeachment proceedings to be thrown in the mix to.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:24 - ID#404410)
Mr. Clinton doesn't get it!
Dear Mr Clinton:
You just don't get it. We must shore up the currencies first, so that people trust it as tender. Your answer is borrow-lend; borrow-lend; bowwow-lend. We need some dynamic thinkers, e.g., Jack Kemp, Steve Forbes, Jude Winninski.
For now, same old methods - taking us broke. It's pitiful!

Highhopes ( feeling more like lowhopes )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:27 - ID#412273)
Dow 8100 and the bears
If the dow breaks above 8100, the bears will be presented with a problem

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:30 - ID#288399)
Clinton/CFR speech
Sick Willie wants us to "redeem the promise of the global economy";i.e., cough up more money from taxpayers to bailout Citibank and Bankers Trust. Where's Rubin's comment saying same thing? Should come soon.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:49 - ID#377196)
Engineer's post re gold standard
Bravo on an excellent post. If all of us forwarded that or something along those lines to all our congressmen plus Clinton ( give him something to do other than worry about Starr etc ) , it might make an impression. Very good idea.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:49 - ID#227238)
That earlier post by the Italian Professor was most excellent. It fills some gaps in the process of understanding. Very well done. ..... It would be interesting to see what he envisions for a monetary system that was indeed under control of the people rather than the banks. Without same being composed of gold. ..... Thanks for post.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:51 - ID#377196)
Engineer's post re gold standard
Bravo on an excellent post. If all of us forwarded that or something along those lines to all our congressmen plus Clinton ( give him something to do other than worry about Starr etc ) , it might make an impression. Very good idea.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 12:55 - ID#317193)
Just checking in...things look about right for noon time...
Dow up, gold down. Shhh... don't yell fire and tell the people that the currencies are on fire. Let's see, Brazil is OK...they just had to raise interest rates to 49% to "solve" their problems. If, you can not read the handwriting on that wall, all hope is gone. What did Russia do before it defaulted?

A few years from now all will be so's the funny paper folks. Americans will probably still think FRN have value until sometime in the year 2000. This assumes any market exists by then.

Buy low and hold on for dear life. Change is already here. Good trading...or, maybe, just good luck. I'm starting to pray for Dow 10,000...anything else will be an unhappy time for all. Derivatives...what an ugly word.

Physical just sits there and knows not its value...hedge your bets.


Steve in FL
(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:03 - ID#213335)
Ouch! Just sold 1/3 of my gold bullion position.
Oh well! Hope the other 2/3 brings me better luck. Dang them torpedos!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:05 - ID#41338)
My ABX Index

I've been closely watching the movement of ABX ( Barrick ) lately in relation to the following days price movement of gold and have noticed at pattern developing. The stock price movement of ABX tends to indicate ( although not always ) the next days price movement in gold. I see today that ABX is regaining lost ground from today's opening price and may even close today at or above Friday's closing price. If this should happen, if will be looking for a rebound in the price of gold tomorrow.



(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:06 - ID#335190)
The Duma on 11 September voted by 265 to two to dismiss the
entire board of directors of the Central Bank. New Central Bank
head Gerashchenko had reportedly made the dismissal of the
board a condition for his return to the bank. Gerashchenko
promptly restored some members, but not Central Bank First
Deputy Chairman Sergei Aleksashenko. According to
"Kommersant-Daily" on 12 September, Tatyana Paramonova,
former acting Central Bank chief, is likely to be tapped for a seat
on the board. Earlier the same day, Gerashchenko himself was
confirmed by a Duma vote of 273 to 65 with two abstentions.
According to Interfax, Liberal Democratic Party leader Vladimir
Zhirinovsky suggested postponing the vote because the Federal
Security Service and Interior Ministry needed to examine
"compromising" materials about Gerashchenko. Before the Duma
voted, Gerashchenko voiced his support for a "controlled" printing
of new money. JAC

Prime Minister Primakov on 12 September told Russian media
that Russia will repay all its debts. He said "Russia is not a country
to declare itself bankrupt and never will be." During his speech to
the Duma the previous day, Primakov called for new negotiations
to restructure Russia's foreign debt. The German Finance Ministry
said that Russia failed to pay 750 million German marks ( $446
million ) in interest payments due at the end of August. According
to "Russkii telegraf" on 12 September, Deputy Finance Minister
Kasyanov said Russia paid only $115 million in August, but he
assured Paris Club member countries that by the end of the year,
the government will pay the full amount due. JAC

With the appointment of Maslyukov and his speech to the Duma
on 11 September, Primakov gave some indication of the general
direction of his administration's economic policy. He said the
"government should interfere in economic affairs and regulate
them, but this is not a return to the administrative and command
system." Anticipating likely criticism, he noted that "it did not occur
to anybody to criticize the U.S. when President Franklin
Roosevelt, for example, after the Great Depression, undertook
measures toward state regulation of the economy." Previously,
Maslyukov and Communist Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov also
said their economic theories draw heavily upon Roosevelt's "New
Deal," according to the "Moscow Times" on 12 September. On
14 September, Maslyukov told reporters that his top priority will
be paying off huge wage and pension arrears. JAC


Unidentified gunmen shot and killed Democratic Party legislator
Azem Hajdari and his bodyguard in front of the party's Tirana
headquarters on 12 September.

Some 2,000 Democratic Party supporters stormed the
government's offices in Tirana on 13 September and set fire to the
ground floor and nearby cars. Nano and several other ministers
fled their offices amid a hail of gunfire. One protester was killed
and four guards were wounded in the shoot-out. After the riots,
Berisha appealed for calm in the runup to the funeral of Hajdari the
following day. Some 2,000 Democrats held a peaceful mourning
ceremony in central Skanderbeg Square at which the bodies of
Hajdari and his bodyguard were displayed. Near the Democratic
stronghold of Kavaja, protesters blocked Albania's main north-
south road and stormed the local police station. FS

Nano appealed to Albanians in a state television interview on 14
September to reject "attempts [by the Democrats] to seize power
by force." Later that morning, shooting broke out between
protesters outside Nano's offices and persons inside after the
protesters had tried to bring Hajdari's coffin into the building.
Guards sent Democratic supporters fleeing amid a hail of bullets,
wounding at least three demonstrators. Protesters then threw
several grenades into the building, causing explosions. Democratic
supporters seized a tank and drove it toward Skanderbeg Square.
AP wrote that the situation in Tirana is "spinning out of control." A
local journalist told RFE/RL that opposition forces have seized the
state television building. FS

OSCE Ambassador to Albania Daan Everts called Hajdari's
killing "atrocious" but added that "there is no excuse to react with

Crystal Ball
(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:07 - ID#287411)
I gotta believe that with the XAU in the low 50s, the downside risk in mining stocks is infinitesimally smaller than the upside potential, although naturally I could not guarantee that we would not see a new price low ( 40-45 ) with nonconfirmation of the RSI/stochastics signalling a major trend reversal. I can tell you the bottom for this gold secular cycle is near at hand, and we will be seeing MUCH higher prices in the next few years. Bottom line---I would be buying mining stocks with both hands if XAU retests low 50s. As to the $XOI ( oil index ) , resistance lies between 430-440, and I would expect a retest of the 405 area before a bounce; however, the monthly chart is ominous with a large long term ( 1997-1998 ) double top in the 500 area. If 380 is broken to the downside, we could see 280. Very scary!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:11 - ID#333126)
this may already have been posted...
Swissair crash plane was carrying lotsa valuable stuff. hmmm....

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:12 - ID#372228)
Japan Possibly dumping Treasuries on Friday
As we have seen lately, the dollar has fallen like a rock last week...we now learn that Japan was most likely dumping treasuries to repatriate the Yen to Japan ( raise it's value ) prior to the economic meeting with China....IMHO, we will see continued selling of Treasuries by Japan to heal it's problems as well as raising the value of the Yen and keeping China as an ally. The talk by Greenspan and Clinton, IMHO, is an effort to stop the Japanese from selling any more Treasuries by lowering the dollar and therefore raising the Yen giving the Japanese what they have wanted all along....So, what we could see in the very near future is a 1/2 point interest rate cut and a MUCH lower US$. This is EXCELLENT for gold, as we saw last week....But the real thing we have to keep our eyes on is LATIN AMERICA!!! This is a bomb of much greater proportions than we have seen from Asia or Russia...Remember back in the 1980's, Latin America couldn't pay it's debt so the banks loaned them some more money so that they could repay them and it wouldn't cause a banking crisis...well all of those previous loans on the books plus all the new loans given them to be able to pay the interest on the old loans are now starting to catch up with them...this time the US and the IMF don't have any more money to lend them to quiet the bleeding....Disaster is just around the corner and the only way now to help Latin America is to make THEIR CURRENCY MORE VALUABLE against the US$.....This will be done at our expense ( we the people ) , to save the banks, not to save the ordinary people...The only way they can do this is thru devaluation of the currency because we no longer have money to lend them directly, so we will do it indirectly thru currency devaluation...This way we are taking our assets and spreading them around the world by making their money more valuable....IMHO, We are in the beginning of the bankrupcy cycle of the nations ( denial phase ) and from here on out, there is nothing that can stop it from happening!!! Start to think one step ahead of them or get run over by the coming steam roller.....

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:14 - ID#37463)
I was listening to Imus in the Morning this morning. He was interviewing Kinky Friedman ( spelling probably way off ) . Kinky's comment was that you can measure the ability of a man to stand and hence his worth by the quality of his enemies and then proceeded to denegrate Mr. Starr and the right wing folks who harbor some ideas that their leaders outght to maintain a moral high road of some sort. That taken into account with our neighbor's sign on the back of their pickup up that Starr is a pervert ( like he authored the report from his imagination ) makes me wonder if the vacuous masses are grasping the gravity of Clinton's acts. I can predict that if Clinton is not ousted that our willingness to tollerate and perhaps even laugh at and encourage his conduct will in the end resound in a lessening of our moral fabric which is already pretty frayed. Unti Clinton becomes king he should be made to answer. And yes I forgive him, now get out of town with your family and write your book.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:19 - ID#347447)
Spanky, lakshmi
Spankster - I will oook at Afghan & Iran 'scopes & report if anything seems unusual.

Lakshmi: Bill Clinton - Aug 19, 1946, 8:51 AM CDT Hope, Arkansas 093W40, 33N44

NYSE: May 17, 1792, NYC 0:52 AM EST 074W00, 40N43

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:21 - ID#290172)
TYoung--Just hold in mind our noble metal as the
PRICER, not the Priced! --the game of Solitaire reverts to a game of 'Patience' {:- ) )

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:22 - ID#347447)
sorry, that time for NYSE should be 8:52 AM

NYSE: May 17, 1792, NYC 8:52 AM EST 074W00, 40N43

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:23 - ID#31855)
Crystal Ball, panda

Thanks for the replies. Much appreciated.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:26 - ID#317193)
SDRer...does not look like much "patience" is going to be needed.
In the greater scheme of things a mere matter of months. bet I am. We watch and wait.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:29 - ID#280339)
@Goldfevr re: TBonds
Goldfevr if I understand your system in regards to trader commitments we have a TBond sell!!

P.S. XAU seems to be making a recovery today. Perhaps because of Sick ( Bent Left ) Willie's call to lower interest rates. With the stock market rallying so strongly perhaps GOLD not as before!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:30 - ID#219363)
Many weird things happening today, something's up with the markets. Call options going through the roof on some of the stocks I'm looking at, market rally was expected eventually, just couldn't guess when. Words flying about seriousness of some foreign situations coming into the open, and then we get political leaders trying to re-assure people everything is okay. Something just feels, I dunno, could be nothing I guess.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:32 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Global credit crunch may be next peril

LONDON ( Reuters ) - As the world's largest banks tally their losses from continuing turmoil in emerging markets, a much more damaging scenario may be unfolding for economic policy-makers -- a full-blown credit crunch.

Analysts say one of the most natural instincts for bankers in times of crisis is to reduce lending, sometimes even to their most credit-worthy customers.

Extra caution becomes the guiding principle.

But in the midst of an economic downturn, where credit availability is what is needed most for businesses ravaged by falling customer demand, this is exactly the wrong prescription.

Such behavior tends to diminish the effectiveness of lower interest rates, exacerbating the troubles for many economies and prompting more defaults and even more curbs on lending.

For matters to get much worse, analysts believe there would have to be a further leg to the global crisis, one that worsens the already bleak picture for many Latin American economies.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:38 - ID#269409)
Russkie's default on grain payment
Monday September 14, 1:24 pm Eastern Time

Russia misses grain payment to Canada-wheat board

WINNIPEG, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - Crisis-hit Russia recently missed a payment to the Canadian Wheat Board
for grains purchased in the early part of this decade, a CWB spokeswoman said on Monday.

``The Russians, given the currency crisis, missed a recent payment,'' said Deanna Allen, the board's
manager of media relations.

``The payment was missed late last week,'' she said.

Allen declined to name the amount of the payment, which she said was owed under a US$1.5 billion line of credit issued by Canada to Russia.

Russia has been undergoing a financial crisis in recent weeks which has seen its rouble currency lose two-thirds of its value.

Russia purchased 3.447 million tonnes of Canadian wheat in 1989-90, 7.223 million tonnes in 1990-91 and 4.91 million tonnes in 1991-92,
she said.

``They've been making payments on this credit since the credit was extended to them,'' Allen said. ``It's the first time to my knowledge that
they've missed a payment.''

She said the situation was being monitored by the Canadian government and the wheat board, which markets the bulk of Canada's grain

``We fully expect that once their financial footing becomes normal they will resume payment,'' Allen said. ``We fully expect that once the
credit is issued, the credit will be repaid and repaid on time.''

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:46 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...thought this was good when I wrote it...a repost...
We have virtual reality, which is about to collapse via Y2K, leaving people in the world of actual reality. It is my contention that severe dementia will afflict 100s of millions around the globe adding to the millennial madness. Add the drunken spree the evening before on the soon to be infamous tick of the clock and think of the look of stupefaction on the faces of the revelers as they face an actual reality which makes the word stark leap to mind. In less than a millisecond they will leave the make believe dimension of virtual reality and be thrust into the ( for them ) painfully humbling world of actual reality.

Needless to say this will create an atmosphere of dislocation. Given the talk of family values mixed with the rhetoric of the politicians, and all others that use this catch phrase to plant seeds in the fields that are the minds of the masses from whom they seek money more than anything else, what they have not been able to accomplish will occur in one over arching global manifestation of actual reality. Things as it were will come directly home as they have to fend for their families, with the assistance of their neighbors. Centralized anything will find nothing but disgust as giant systems are crushed. Think locally, act locally will permeate their thoughts and guide their actions.

Actual realityuh huh

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:47 - ID#269409)
Clinton / Rubin machinations
Monday September 14, 1:18 pm Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries hug lows in early afternoon

*U.S. Treasuries embrace lows in early afternoon trade. *Stocks still key. Dow Jones avg. up more than
230 points. *Eye on Wed. Greespan/Rubin address to house banking comm. *Next rate cut seen 25 bps. At
least 75 to 100 bps priced in. *Reaction to Clinton call for G7 meet on world crisis muted.

John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:49 - ID#24135)
low cost solutions
To all ..
What does this MEAN .. Polls say that while the
"american people" dont respect klinton and disapprove
of what he has done .. 62 % GIVE HIM A GOOD JOB RATING.

BUT .. he hasnt DONE ANYTHING .. am I missing something.
I believe that wjc has done VERY LITTLE over the past
year ... am I wrong???

SO the people seem to think that the less the prez
DOES .. the better he IS. ( this fits right in with my
politics of right wing anarchy ) ..
and perhaps the way to make everybody happy is to put
wjc in jail for perjury BUT let a papier mache replica
of him serve out his term in office .. tape recordings
of his voice could prove usefull ... if you edit out
the lies.
The next step would be replicas of congress ..
madame Tussaud could provide technical assistance .. wax
might be more long lasting.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:51 - ID#390415)
When bad is not so bad
Dec gold off $3.90, XAU off only 1.73%.

Looks like a pre-declension suplapsing joint co-reversion, chartwise, althought that is tentative.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:51 - ID#335190)
"relative lack of bad world economic news" @ Investors marvelled
September 14, 1998

New York stocks rocket upwards

TORONTO ( CP ) -- The Dow Jones industrial average soared almost 200 points in the first 90 minutes of trading this morning as investors marvelled at the relative lack of bad world economic news.

"The situation in Russia, at least for the moment, seems to be OK. There's no more damage out of Southeast Asia. There's an absence of bad news."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:53 - ID#269409)
Gold Mining Co.'s responsible for the "Social welfare"
Monday September 14, 1:43 pm Eastern Time

Indonesia wants written welfare plan from Freeport

NEW YORK, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - An Indonesian parliamentary report called on Freeport McMoRan
Copper & Gold Inc ( NYSE:FCX - news ) to put in writing its plan for improving the social welfare where
the company operates a copper and gold mine.

The report filed by a body called Commission VIII, which includes members of the Indonesian parliament, according to Freeport, said that
the presence of Freeport in Irian Jaya, where the company operates the Grasberg mine, ``should be maintained and secured.''

But the report also noted that Freeport's ``participation in improving the people's wekfare and development of Irian Jaya should be negotiated
and included in a contract so that it has a clear legal basis.''

Since 1990, Freeport has contributed $120 million to the local infrastructure, ``including education, churches, schools and food programs,'' a
company spokesman said Monday.

In 1996, the company also established the ``1 percent fund,'' in which 1 percent of the company's annual revenue will be contributed to an
escrow bank account to fund seven tribes indiginous to the Grasberg area ``and will be distributed when we're told by the tribes how they
want the money distributed,'' the spokesman said. This plan expires in 2006.

The Commission VIII report credited Freeport with ``taking various steps to develop the community and improve the environment, and even
anticipatory planning for the time when mining operations will end.''

But it also said, ``the condition of local people has not changed much compared to 25 years ago when the company started its initial

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:54 - ID#410194)
Gold analysis
A different perspective from the Gold researcher at "Hightower's Report"
posted early this morning:

"Unless the overnight action reverses the gold looks looks like it has formed a minor spike top. The gold has a real problem in that some flight to quality buying was noted in prices last week besides the obvious currency impact and therefore we are not sure if gold can avoid a correction. It would seem that to shift back into optimism toward demand is a difficult task given the bearish sentiment on the global economy and therefore the currency benefit is the best bet for gold bulls. Over the weekend conflicting opinions were seen from the Gold Fields Mineral Service conference where some speculated on more Central Bank gold sales in the second half while others denied the potential. Others suggested that gold supply would be increased by the EU, Switzerland and the IMF. GFMS suggested that official sales in the 1st half were 88 tons and that the second half could total 260 tons. However, compared to last year there is less flow with 1998 in total expected at 348 tons compared to 406 in 1997. France boldly suggested they will not be selling gold. Anytime central bank sales are mentioned the bears have the edge."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 13:56 - ID#267344)
McDougal Had No Access to Doctor
Filed at 3:16 a.m. EDT

By The Associated Press

FORT WORTH, Texas ( AP ) -- Whitewater witness James McDougal did not have access to his heart medication in the hours before he died in prison, a federal government report revealed.


John Disney
(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:01 - ID#24135)
there's dandruff ..
on my head and shoulders ..

Nightwriter ..
yes indeedy .. ill say .. although I detect a touch
of an endothermal auto-coaxial inversion .. on the z-axis.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:01 - ID#269409)
@ JD...Clinton's high "Job approval" ratings
Baffling. Apparently we in U.S. have truly become a nation of mindless sheep, when the citizenry attributes their relative economic prosperity to a man who truly has done ZERO, of note, while in office.

Hillary Clinton's vast agenda of socialism was veto'd by Congress from the beginning. The only thing the impotent ( in some areas ) Clinton has done is sign some Republican sponsored bills. He's never had a shred of credibility when it comes to foreign affairs. And just look at the jokers he puts into important positions of suthority. Madeline "Where's the Limo and buffet" Albright??? Handling our foreign policy? Geeez what a laughingstock we've become.

It's the citizenry that scares me more than this Fraud, Clinton. The fact that they think he's done a "good job" and is their big daddy, is a frightening thing. No wonder you renounced your citizenship...... the people have stopped thinking...they've become fat dumb and happy.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:05 - ID#20767)
Lest we forget....
[Source: George Trefgarne, Sept. 7, 1998, Electronic Telegraph]

HEDGE FUNDS ARE AT LEAST 1,000 TONS SHORT OF GOLD. The hedge funds have sold gold they did not own, in anticipation that the price would fall, and used the short positions to finance purchases of U.S. shares and Russian bonds. The bet, which has worked successfully for the last two years, has gone spectacularly wrong, writes the DAILY TELEGRAPH'S Trefgarne. GEORGE SOROS' QUANTUM FUND is thought to have lost up to $4 billion, and John Meriwether's LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT is thought to have lost a similar amount.

Frank Veneroso of Veneroso Associates, who writes the Gold Book Annual, said: "We hear that quite a few hedge funds with assets of $100 million to $1 billion, whom virtually no one has heard about, have lost all their net assets because of failures in their Russian leveraged positions." Veneroso calculated that the hedge funds are at least 1,000 tons short of gold, the equivalent of half the world's annual production.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:06 - ID#317193)
LGB...fat, dumb and happy...
soon to be skinny, dumb and broke if things don't change.

Take care...thanks again for the prior post. Back to work.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:06 - ID#119358)
Your new jib points to a proper tact. sail on, cappy.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:12 - ID#410194)
I don't want to steal LGB's stuff but he really made me think here concerning his bet with Puetz.

LGB, I hope you won't mind but you gave me an excellent idea to also come up with a bet for Puetz.

Puetz, your numerous crash predictions have never materialized and not even your "points drop" predictions for all the weeks for which you have made specific statements but here you are again predicting that the Dow will be at 3000 by the end of September.

If you are serious and if you really mean what you are talking about, you will be interested by the following:

If the Dow is at 4000 or lower ( yep, you read well, not 3000 but 4000 ) at anytime from now until the end of October....I repeat, at ANYTIME from now until the end of October and no matter for how long, I send you a certified cheque of $10,000 US! If the Dow never goes below 4000 at anytime in the month of October, you send me a certified cheque of $1000 US!

If you are interested, I will get in touch with you to provide some sort of guarantees, just tell me how.

Think about it, you could gain $10,000 ( US ) and lose only $1,000 ( US ) !

As LGB would say, time to put your money where your mouth is.

All the best in your prediction of a Dow worth 3000 by the end of September and the deal that I propose to you is very flexible.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:16 - ID#119358)
@the merkan peopleo........
will not become disenchanted will Billy Clitton until he is caught co-masturbating with Madeline Albright. This will finish him.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:16 - ID#350179)
My wife says: WJC "must have been on drugs" and "God, Monica is INSANE..."
( I tend to agree with her on that assessment )

Italy cops say financier hid $1.7M in gold

NightWriter, that was good ; )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:17 - ID#277302)
The ongoing crucifixion of the american Clinton...
is yet another carefully orchestrated and skillfully carried out ploy, a contingency plan out of the American's "Grand Plan", a "soap opera" of unprecedented proportions, aimed at lulling the world into a stupor of inaction and procrastination while the massive robbery of it's REAL wealth continues.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:20 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz
I don't mind at all! In keeping with your name, your wager offer to Puetz is far more "Realistic" than mine, as to ascribing proper odds anyway.

And speaking of odds, I'd say the odds of Puetz seriously accepting EITHER of our serious wagers is, oh, maybe, the same as the Lotto's 9 million to one!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:21 - ID#410194)
And don't forget to update us on the following when you get a chance.


1 ) On the stock market crash that you said started in New Zealand last Sunday?

2 ) On the lunar-eclipse that was supposed to create a 1000 points drop in the Dow last week?

3 ) On the 2500-3500 points drop in the Dow this week.

Thank you!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand.

Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.
Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points.
The week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:32 - ID#410198)
Best quote....America is just the richest Banana Republic....thanks Bill

(Mon Sep 14 1998 14:40 - ID#373284)
some good reading here...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:19 - ID#350179)
DOW +1.92% 7945.35
XAU -1.44% 66.92

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:21 - ID#373284) the Canadians have a beef with Clintler...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:26 - ID#373284)

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:32 - ID#350179)
Tolly - where'd everybody go?
Head of IMF says no new money for Russia without reforms

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:34 - ID#254321)
Hedge Funds short 1000 tonnes of gold
All: If this news is true, they must be scrambling around, trying to find someone who can find the gold for them, or something equivalent. The CB's are probably alot less eager to come to the rescue than they were a few months ago --- and 1000 tonnes is alot even for a Rothschild. So -- in the meanwhile, are they forced to cover their shorts?

This is very promising. We must be patient. I wonder what AG thinks about all this -- I'll bet that he will not be at all eager to bail them out. But -- he might step in and suppress a gold rally, as he threatened to do so, if the price of gold rose too quickly.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:36 - ID#317193)
Tol#1...have the Cubans come forward with complaints regarding....
cigar abuse? : )

I have not read and will not read any of this "stuff" in the Starr report...not worth the time. He is what we all knew.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:40 - ID#373284)
MM, TYoung, Namaste' the IMF and the bums that run and support it should be
tried for crimes against humanity...cigars...hmmmmmmmm...I think every American should send a box of them to Chelsea C/O WJC...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:44 - ID#7568)
Realistic & LGB:

The bear spread between the dow 6800 and 6900 oct puts is 12.50. If the down finishes below 6800 on expirey it will be worth 100. The market is giving odds of about 8 to 1. Offering 10 to 1 for a close below 4000 is probably better than 10 times under the money.

It would not make sense for Puetz or anyone else to take this wager unless thier purpose was to donate money to your cause.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:45 - ID#373284)
Be prepared or you will wish you had...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:47 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

GM chairman calls for interest rate cut

DETROIT ( Reuters ) - General Motors Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Jack Smith Monday called for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by half a percentage point to ensure economic problems in other parts of the world do not spread to the U.S. economy.

"We know that the global economy is in the tank in many parts of the world, and that can grow into slower growth in the U.S," he said.

He said financial troubles in Asia are creating problems for U.S.-based automakers. Korean and Japanese firms are increasing their exports to the United States and driving down prices for new cars and trucks as a way out of their own domestic problems.

"We are seeing a significant deterioration of the trade situation," Smith said.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:49 - ID#373284)
is it not lovely to know each American is helping re-elect EnviroWhoreGore...NOT!!!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:57 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.35. The 233 day moving average is 28.44

(Mon Sep 14 1998 16:58 - ID#373284)
America will pay for sure...uh huh...count on it...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:03 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .230. the 233 day moving average is .252

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:06 - ID#26350)
The recent eclipse of the moon
Was only a penumbral eclipse, not over the surface of the moon. Perhaps that is why is did not cause the damage at least immediately. But isn't it supposed to happen 9/18/1998 anyway? Thanks for the co-ordinates. Will research this evening. If you read it the date the NYSE began trading? This is most crucial point of course and can sometimes to be rectified. Some friends recently rectified the signing of the Declaration of Independence time to early afternoon, not late evening I think it was after extensive research at the Library of Congress. Geologists you know say that planetary configuration would not say have much of an effect on the pull of earths poles, etc. It is fun tho, cheers!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:09 - ID#229207)
How to make friends and influence people
Japan's economic growth "pathetic", Sperling says
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - A senior White House
official said on Monday Japan's economic growth rate was
"pathetic" and reiterated Washington's demands that Tokyo
should act urgently to stimulate domestic demand and clean up
its debt-ridden banking sector.
"They have pathetic growth and a need for significant
demand and, perhaps most importantly, a need to show that there
will be prompt significant corrective action on their banking
and financial restructuring," White House economic adviser Gene
Sperling told a news briefing after a speech in New York by
U.S. President Bill Clinton.
( ( Washington newsroom, +1 202 898-8377, fax +1 202
898-8383, ) ) REUTERS
My sense is that the Japanese probably already feel humiliated by their inability to turn their economy around and don't need some wise-ass in the White House playing armchair quarterback.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:10 - ID#254321)
Clinton Impeachment proceedings
All: D.A.'s erudite comments last night nonwithstanding, I find it interesting that Kenneth Starr's report is coming out in stages. First -- the 200 plus page report on Monica. Then, if need be, the FBI gate, travelgate, Whitewater files in a 2000 page bolus, when the time is right.

The impeachment committee could also demand investigation of the Commercegate, and Campaigngate affairs as well.

Does anyone know just how long Kenneth Starr has before he must stop investigating WJC? I wonder -- if the Republicans and Democrats start bickering about what they will investigate and what they won't -- is it fair to let the clock keep ticking? I would think a time out would be in order -- but then I don't know the law about this.

One thing is certain right now -- Clinton has just lost most of his support from the national news media -- impeachment or no.

When you start to lie to cover something up, the lies must continue indefinitely, each new one building on the previous ones, and they must be self consistent. Eventually the imaginary structure based on these lies starts to grow, and sooner or later it collapses. It does not matter how good a liar you are -- being a good liar just means that the collapse is delayed -- it cannot be prevented indefinitely. Eventually even your most loyal supporters give up.

Looks like the bubble of lies has burst.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:14 - ID#7568)

If you have one of those fancy legal search engines could you possibly give it a spin on the following.

Has there ever been a case where a criminal prosecution of perjury or obstruction of justice has stemmed from a civil procedure in which the defendant has won the initial case because the judge dismissed the case as a matter of law.

I've heard a lot of commentary to the effect that if WJC was a private citizen they would have thrown the book at him. Could you perhaps find out if this is true or is the reality much different. Thanks.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:15 - ID#430221)
Markets-what I have noticed
1. When markets have topped and are heading down no person is
able to stop the trend. No policy change comes to the rescue. No
interest rate cut helps. Just look at Japan etc.
Markets just seem to melt down and down until the bottom is reached.
The gold market was the same way. Even great fundamentals didn't help.
Nor the fact that it is the only real money there is.

2. But just like the gold bugs riding the gold bear all the way to
the bottom so will the stock bulls ride the great bear all the way
down. It is just the way it is.

3. When markets are ready to go up and the trend changes nothing
can stop the move. Not even Greespam will be able to stem the tide
of the gold bull.

4. The stock market and Bill Clinton are the same. The polls show
that they want Bill punished but not thrown out. They want the same
when it comes to their stock portfolio. They want a correction not
a crash and a wipe out. They want as Tolerant1 says "to believe in
virtual reality" and Bill Clinton is virtual reality. He has been a
co-creator of the peoples' belief system: Fun Forever.

5. Markets are here to distinguish between virtual and the real.
They will react accordingly. If gold has bottomed, and I think
it has, and the stock market has topped, then the real show has

6. When markets make men greedy, smug and defiant at the top it
makes them weep at the bottom. Clinton has wept first. Now it is the
peoples turn. Clinton wept at his cabinet meeting not because he was
sorry but because he had been caught. Soon, the people will weep
because they have been caught believing in the biggest ponzi scheme
in recorded history.


Thanks, GD

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:16 - ID#20767)
Peace! BREAD! Land!
[Source: wires, press, FNS]

Sept. 10--RUSSIAN REGIONS TAKE URGENT FOOD MEASURES. The Russian ruble is rising against the dollar, evidently chiefly because people are rushing to purchase non-perishable food stocks, and need cash; running out of rubles, they sell dollars, driving the ruble up.
An article in the {Boston Globe} reported yesterday's statement by Ardaki Volsky, head of Russia's Union of Entrepreneurs and Industrialists, that food imports are at only 10 percent of their level before Aug. 17. Foreign companies are cancelling deliveries to Russia. Several ships this week sailed out of the port of St. Petersburg this week, without unloading their cargoes.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:22 - ID#346236)
STAR is missing the MARK
Starr's Report Ignores
Serious Crimes
by William Cooper
 Copyright 1998 by Harvest Trust All Rights Reserved
CAJI News Service - Exclusive - The House of
Representatives published the first 445 pages of
Independent Prosecutor Starr's report to the Congress on
the Internet Yesterday. Despite the known crimes of selling
favors and classified information to the Communist
Chinese, illegal use of campaign funds, illegal solicitation of
campaign funds in the White House, the use of narcotics in
the White House, not to mention those crimes connected
with Whitewater, the death of Vince Foster, and who knows
what else, the portions of the report that were made public
concentrate only on the crimes connected with the Monica
Lewinski sex scandal.
The allegations included, if true, are indeed crimes. They
are impeachable crimes. When the American Sheople read
the report they will more than likely wonder, "What's the
big deal," as the report reflects another person caught up
in the rampant immorality of these times. I would bet that a
great number of Americans are guilty of the same types of
activities and the same lies and deception connected with
their actions.
Submitting such a report to a Congress populated with bold
faced chronic liars is not likely to result in any action
whatsoever. We will have to wait and see.
Lies and cover-ups are standard operating procedure
within the United States government. If Clinton is
impeached over these charges it will be because extremely
powerful forces want him out of office, and quickly... just as
I have told you.
I wish I could hear the conversations in countless bedrooms
tonight between mistresses, sugar daddies, girlfriends,
boyfriends, prostitutes and paramours. What do you bet
they are saying, "Impeach the SOB"? Well... maybe,
hypocrisy is frequently found in bed with immorality.
For more news go to:

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:27 - ID#335190)
September 14, 1998

Farmers ask U.S. for billions of dollars in aid

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. farmers need several billion dollars in aid from Congress to survive an abrupt downturn in world grain and livestock prices, farm groups said Monday, warning an economic recovery was a year or two away.

Farm income was forecast to decline 12 percent this year from 1997's record $60.7 billion, due to tepid consumer appetite for mammoth grain and meat supplies.

This year's soybean crop may fetch the lowest price since the mid-1980s recession.

"We need to look at some serious dollars going back to farmers," Texas Farm Bureau president Bob Stallman said in an interview, citing low prices and losses from drought, hurricanes and wheat disease.

"It is going to take billions of dollars to shape it up," said Leland Swenson, president of the National Farmers Union.

Democrats have focused on more generous harvest-time loans as the way to funnel money to farmers. Republicans prefer direct payments to growers and paying farmers to idle disease-infested land. Both support an "indemnity" to farmers to offset disaster losses.

A NFU-commissioned survey of 1,000 farmers found three- quarters favored higher loan rates. About 84 percent wanted to reestablish a system that would pay them to store surplus grain and keep it off the market for a year or more.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:31 - ID#373284)
JTF, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...the info you seek is here...

But events and the statutory command of Section 595 ( c ) have dictated otherwise. As the investigation into the President's actions with respect to Ms. Lewinsky and the Jones litigation progressed, it became apparent that there was a significant body of substantial and credible information that met the Section 595 ( c ) threshold. As that phase of the investigation neared completion, it also became apparent that a delay of this Referral until the evidence from all phases of the investigation had been evaluated would be unwise. Although Section 595 ( c ) does not specify when information must be submitted, its text strongly suggests that information of this type belongs in the hands of Congress as soon as the Independent Counsel determines that the information is reliable and substantially complete.

All phases of the investigation are now nearing completion. This Office will soon make final decisions about what steps to take, if any, with respect to the other information it has gathered. Those decisions will be made at the earliest practical time, consistent with our statutory and ethical obligations.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:34 - ID#432130)
Gold Dancer...
That was a well thought out observation, and I agree.

Got Gold?

: )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:41 - ID#72316)
How does Paula Jones compare to Monica???




Close, but no cigar...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:41 - ID#350179)
JTF ( Clinton Impeachment proceedings )
That would be a "Fiat Presidency", no?

N. Korea Launched a Satellite
...We have concluded that North Korea did attempt to orbit a very small satellite. We also have concluded the satellite failed to achieve orbit, State Department spokesman James Rubin told reporters." ...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:50 - ID#119358)
@oil will not flow in the streets of merka.....
What will replace the wealth effect of the world's expanded equity markets now that is is rapidly depleting? Although, effects of economic empowerment from these unprecedented touts appeared to be general and widespread, they in fact were quite narrow in the global sense. Very few of the world's populace gained from this monetary exercise. And now at the epicenter of the expansion, Americans are being notified in their September brokerage statements that they have lost much, if not all, of their gains in wealth. Demand for goods will now drop further.

The obvious cure for this economic contraction is to inflate commodities. Commodities are the monetary mainstays of the majority of the economies that have suffered the most during this twenty-year period of equity inflation. The real prices paid for rice, sugar, wheat, corn, lumber, copper, oil, natural gas, gold, silver, cotton, fruits, vegetables, meat, soybeans, milk products, fish, etc. must be increased. This act would put purchasing power back into the needy hands of a large percentage of the world's workers. All would benefit.

But how can this be done? Minimum Price Controls. Why should there be a minimum wage and yet not a minimum price? It is unfair to insure the economic benefits given the dishwasher of an empty glass at Denny's and NOT the benefit to the farmer who produced the nutritious milk that filled the glass.

The workers of the world need to be paid a just price for their goods, a price reflecting the costs of efficient production. And the monetary rewards now flowing into the greedy hands of those who promote speculation and disruption in the price of these goods should be redirected to the workers and those who directly provide for the work. The futures markets yield an ever-lessening benefit to goods producers and a deceptive means for profit pilfering by powerful parasites.

We, the workers of the world, must provide for each other...not the banks. Our governments must be yanked from the greedy hands of the bankers' banks. And we must kill the banking bastards.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:52 - ID#253153)
How do we know for certain that we are in deflation ?
Deflation is characterized by the following elements :
1. Declining interest rates.
2. Declining equity prices.
3. Declining commodity prices.
4. Political chaos.
5. Weakening currencies.
6. Competitive devaluations.
7. Poor leadership at all governmental levels.
8. Defaults, bankruptcies and uncertainty.
9. Floating currencies.
10. Denial and disbelieve.
It seems to me that all of the above exist today.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Sep 14 1998 17:53 - ID#295111)
ABX-Barrick Gold-------CLOSED AT $17.8750 0.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $07.5000 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.13
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.1875 -0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.28
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $05.2500 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
FCX-Freeport Mc-------CLOSED AT $13.2500 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.11
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $14.2500 0.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.1875 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.02
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $11.5000 -0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.21
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $19.7500 -0.8125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.41
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $12.1875 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.15

XAU CLOSED AT 66.92 -0.98

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:00 - ID#280284)
moved to a permanent site
Those of you who read my page, I have moved to

Thank you.

--Steve K.

Bully Beef
(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:00 - ID#259282)
A real sucker rally has to be believeable and extended.
People have to believe the threat is over and everything is back to normal...that is 30% a year returns.I'm only suspicious. If "The Money" wants to sell and have better returns than what they have had they are going to have to run things up. Who knows?... but I'm in until gold has died and hell is frozen over.I'm in until the wiring in your house is gold.I'm in until your hub caps are gold plated with real gold.I'm in until you brush your teeth with ...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:01 - ID#350179)
I hope this isn't just another "We will not evalue" (Yeltsin) thing.
Brazilian official says IMF help not needed

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:03 - ID#350179)
That was supposed to be
"Devalue" in the subject line.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:14 - ID#284255)
Lady Bug
Here's a web page still unfinished.
It deals with the alternative side of Y2k.
Most of the links posted by Tolerant are here.
There are links to food and other things.

I hadn't intended to release it quite yet so you will see it undergoing many changes.

I hope this helps you in your search

Thanks mate.
It does make one think what will happen to money if the financial system falls apart.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:16 - ID#219363)
The Bear Is Good
The bear is warm and fuzzy. The bear slaughters the weak and makes room for the strong. The bear devours the sick, the weak, the in-efficient. The bear burns paper. The bear eats outrageous speculation. The bear seeks out fools, liars, and thieves. The bear hunts down bad loans, poor management, and wasteful spending. The bear can't be negotiated with. The bear has a purpose - to cleanse the system. It serves the same goal that a forest fire does, to destroy so that the world may be re-born. The Gold bear has left only the strong, the faithful, and the world equity bear will do the same. The bear kills the old, the out-dated, and makes room for the new, the young. The bear is good, the bear is strong, the bear is wise. The bear is the ultimate teacher.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:21 - ID#286230)
Bully Beef
Great post--almost Churchillian.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:23 - ID#350179)
"They all have an economic interest in that because the Dow Jones index does not just fall purely by chance,"

G7 Offers Moscow Help In Return For Reform

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:24 - ID#284255)
Walker market update
Sometimes the outlook for the market is very clear. And there will be
plenty of times when the market outlook is a lot less clear. That is the

case this right now. When we look at the market we always try to make
as good a case as we can for both the bulls and the bears. Then we sit
back and weigh the evidence. Right now we can make a pretty strong
case for both the bulls AND the bears.

The case for the bulls: Our shorter term internals indicators are
showing some strength for the first time in quite a while. While
some of the internals are still oversold and none of them look
REALLY strong, they have been stronger than the market's price
action would imply. Another plus for the bulls is that we have
seen a series of higher lows on each of the downdrafts since 9/1.
For instance, the SP500 hit a low of 939 on 9/1. Then on the drop
on 9/4 the low was 956, the low on 9/10 was 968, and the low
on 9/11 was 969. This is a bullish pattern, albeit a short term one.
Another positive is sentiment which has gotten very bearish.
Sentiment is generally a contrary indicator, and this will add fuel
to the fire if the market starts to rally. Finally, interest rates are
very low which is almost always a positive for the market.

Not everything in the market is rosy, however, and the bears
have plenty to make their own case with. Since the market top in
July we have seen some sharp rallies, but they only last two or three
days ( and sometimes not even that long ) . The sideways to slightly
up price movement since the big drop on 8/31 does not look much
different than what we saw in early to mid August after the first
big move down from the July top. The fact that the market has NOT
been able to mount much of a rally after getting to extreme
oversold levels on 8/31 is troubling. Another problem spot is the
longer term internals measures, which are still looking very weak.
And while we don't attempt to read the tea leaves in Washington it
appears as if the uncertainty will drag on for a while. And the same
thing applies for the economies in crisis around the world. Uncertainty
is not a good thing for Wall Street. Finally, those low interest rates
also carry a warning, as the possibility of an inverted yield curve
hangs over the economy and market.

As we said above, a very muddy picture. Our bigger picture outlook
is still negative, and we are content sitting on the sidelines.
At some point in here we should get a strong rally that lasts more
than a couple of days. However, once again we will view this
as a bear market rally and will expect it to fail.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:26 - ID#284255)
You forgot to metion that the bear has had its butt kicked for the last 10 years.
It's also mean and angry.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:38 - ID#174239)
Sharefin: Stock Bear/Bull
Excellent summary! If Greenspan does lower interest rates again, then doesn't that almost gurantee a nice boost for the Bulls? Probably with an even harder crash later when the Bear is finally allowed to happen?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:41 - ID#373284)
I could not remember if I posted this site...these products are an excellent alternative
as a non-electric response to lighting...aside from the obvious...around children and or forgetful ancient flame or possibility...just a thought...FWIW...Namaste'

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:45 - ID#338111)
IMF Broke
Has been for a while...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:55 - ID#228128)
Are you short the S&P?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:57 - ID#34883)
news article
Investor's Business Daily
September 3, 1998

"Dollar Contrarians"

The Federal Reserve says that more than half of all U.S. currency is now
held overseas. The dollar has now become the currency of choice for much of
the world. And it has replaced gold as the global financial standard. That
has some economists worried.

"What happens if all that money starts flooding back into the U.S.?" asked
Jeffrey M. Herbener, an economist at Grove City College.

For an answer, look back a little more than 25 years, Herbener suggests.

In 71, Nixon reneged on a U.S. pledge to swap a fixed number of dollars
for gold for foreign governments.

Seeing that the dollar was about to be devalued, foreigners dumped them.
That weakened the dollar even more than Nixon had intended.

And when those dollars started coming back home, they added fuel to a
growing fire of price inflation during the 70s.

Could something like that happen today? Herbener things so.

"One scenario would be that nations facing devaluation would spend their
dollar reserves to defend their own currency," Herbener said.

"We've also got to ask what will happen if the euro becomes the common
currency of the European Union," he said. "Will its members replace their
dollar reserves with euros?"

A big rush of dollars back to the U.S. could kick off price inflation,
unless the Fed hiked interest rates sharply. And this underscores a
dangerous fact, say some economists. The U.S. has become addicted to a
policy of easy money, they say.

The U.S. monetary base, currency plus bank reserves, has grown by 74% since
90. It's 6% larger now than it was just a year ago.

M2, the base plus checking accounts, has grown 30% since 90. It's now 7%
larger than it was a year ago.

Ordinarily, monetary inflation would bring price inflation, but America so
far has been able to avoid that.

But, Herbener warns, it may not be able to do so forever.

New money doesn't enter the economy evenly. It gets injected into credit
markets, making credit look cheaper than it should be.

Total bank loans and investments have been growing at an almost 10% annual
rate for nearly a year now.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan earlier this year warned that banks
may be cutting their lending standards in order to push out the money they
are awash in.

Meanwhile, total household debt has climbed from 68% to 95% of personal
income over the last 10 years.

Of course, many people are worried that U.S. monetary policy is too tight,
not too easy. They want the Fed to cut interest rates and boost the money

The who think there are too many dollars disagree.

"I don't see a lack of liquidity out there," said Lawrence White, an
economist at the University of Georgia.

Nor does White think interest rates are terribly out of line.

The rate of a 30-year Treasury bond is less than 5.5%. Take into account a
consumer inflation rate of about 2%, and than leaves real interest rates at
about 3.5% .

"That's not off the mark, historically speaking," White said.

Nor do falling commodity prices mean that deflation will sweep the U.S., he

"With particular goods, prices are determined by complex forces of supply
and demand," he said. "Before I worry about deflation, I'd want to see
falling prices in a wider index of goods, such as the consumer price index."

The CPI continues to rise, but slowly.

But Greenspan and some other members of the Fed's Open Market Committee
warned about the dangers of inflation as recently as a few weeks ago.

With all of the economic turmoil sweeping the world, this probably isn't
the time to tighten up on money, White admits.

"But I'm also not convinced that we should start inflating the money
supply," he said.

* * * *
c ) copyright Investor's Business Daily, 1998

* * * *
The July and August issues of The Free Market are now available on To contact either Professor Herbener or White, see the links
on the above article on the home page today.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:57 - ID#34883)
news article
Investor's Business Daily
September 3, 1998

"Dollar Contrarians"

The Federal Reserve says that more than half of all U.S. currency is now
held overseas. The dollar has now become the currency of choice for much of
the world. And it has replaced gold as the global financial standard. That
has some economists worried.

"What happens if all that money starts flooding back into the U.S.?" asked
Jeffrey M. Herbener, an economist at Grove City College.

For an answer, look back a little more than 25 years, Herbener suggests.

In 71, Nixon reneged on a U.S. pledge to swap a fixed number of dollars
for gold for foreign governments.

Seeing that the dollar was about to be devalued, foreigners dumped them.
That weakened the dollar even more than Nixon had intended.

And when those dollars started coming back home, they added fuel to a
growing fire of price inflation during the 70s.

Could something like that happen today? Herbener things so.

"One scenario would be that nations facing devaluation would spend their
dollar reserves to defend their own currency," Herbener said.

"We've also got to ask what will happen if the euro becomes the common
currency of the European Union," he said. "Will its members replace their
dollar reserves with euros?"

A big rush of dollars back to the U.S. could kick off price inflation,
unless the Fed hiked interest rates sharply. And this underscores a
dangerous fact, say some economists. The U.S. has become addicted to a
policy of easy money, they say.

The U.S. monetary base, currency plus bank reserves, has grown by 74% since
90. It's 6% larger now than it was just a year ago.

M2, the base plus checking accounts, has grown 30% since 90. It's now 7%
larger than it was a year ago.

Ordinarily, monetary inflation would bring price inflation, but America so
far has been able to avoid that.

But, Herbener warns, it may not be able to do so forever.

New money doesn't enter the economy evenly. It gets injected into credit
markets, making credit look cheaper than it should be.

Total bank loans and investments have been growing at an almost 10% annual
rate for nearly a year now.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan earlier this year warned that banks
may be cutting their lending standards in order to push out the money they
are awash in.

Meanwhile, total household debt has climbed from 68% to 95% of personal
income over the last 10 years.

Of course, many people are worried that U.S. monetary policy is too tight,
not too easy. They want the Fed to cut interest rates and boost the money

The who think there are too many dollars disagree.

"I don't see a lack of liquidity out there," said Lawrence White, an
economist at the University of Georgia.

Nor does White think interest rates are terribly out of line.

The rate of a 30-year Treasury bond is less than 5.5%. Take into account a
consumer inflation rate of about 2%, and than leaves real interest rates at
about 3.5% .

"That's not off the mark, historically speaking," White said.

Nor do falling commodity prices mean that deflation will sweep the U.S., he

"With particular goods, prices are determined by complex forces of supply
and demand," he said. "Before I worry about deflation, I'd want to see
falling prices in a wider index of goods, such as the consumer price index."

The CPI continues to rise, but slowly.

But Greenspan and some other members of the Fed's Open Market Committee
warned about the dangers of inflation as recently as a few weeks ago.

With all of the economic turmoil sweeping the world, this probably isn't
the time to tighten up on money, White admits.

"But I'm also not convinced that we should start inflating the money
supply," he said.

* * * *
c ) copyright Investor's Business Daily, 1998

* * * *
The July and August issues of The Free Market are now available on To contact either Professor Herbener or White, see the links
on the above article on the home page today.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 18:58 - ID#284255)
Carriers lag behind on Y2K fixes
Bennett fears 'major disruption' in transportation
By Lee Davidson Deseret News Washington correspondent

WASHINGTON. Three of every five major airlines, railroads and
shipping companies have not even figured out yet how big their "year 2000" computer problems are let alone managed to fix them.
Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, released that finding Thursday from a survey by the Special Senate Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, which he chairs.
It asked 32 major transportation companies simple questions about
their year 2000 problem activities. Despite numerous calls back, only 16
responded which Bennett says shows the rest may be "embarrassed over their lack of progress."
Among those that did respond, 62 percent said they have not even
finished an assessment of their year 2000 problem a step experts say
should have happened by June 1997 to ensure repairs before Jan. 1, 2000.

32 *MAJOR* transports. *NUMEROUS* callbacks. *ONLY* 16 responded.

62% of those responding have not *EVEN* finished an assessment.

A step they should have finished *OVER* a year ago.


The report does not only show the grades and gives insight in the quarterly
progress, it explains also HOW grades were assigned, WHAT they mean.

A 3 agencies = finishing before the March 1999 deadline
B 5 agencies = finishing later in 1999
C 3 agencies = finishing in 2000
D 7 agencies = finishing in 2001
F 6 agencies = anything after 2001

The shocking truth is that finishing means just having only the
MISSION-CRITICAL systems compliant WITHOUT having tested them. You know
that thorough testing is absolutely necessary and needs a LOT of time.

Agencies which earned C, D or F are TOAST ( breakdowns of mission critical
systems are determined ) .
Agencies rated grade B are TOAST as well because there will be not enough
time for sufficient testing.
Agenices with grade A have a SMALL chance to make it in time.

12.5% of the agencies could make it. Who would object that the Government
is doomed??

These two articles need to be looked at with a great deal of thought.
What are they saying.
They are "in your face" and painfull to accept.

Time to start to think about thinking about what's going to happen?
No need to stockpile gold.
That should be already done.

But what of food?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:01 - ID#229207)
Still don't have tomorrow
Predictions of this bull's impending demise have been floating around literally for years. Right about now, you're wondering if the bear predictions are once more wrong again and you're missing out on the next big run-up.

Well, a market decline is a hard thing to call to the day or week or month. As Mark Twain said, "October is a risky month for the stock market. So is May, December, February, June, March, September, April, July, August, January, and November."

Relative to the Nikkei in its decline from it's bubble heights of 39,000 to its low of 16,000, before it's more recent decline to around 14,000, the DOW is now around 33,000. What will precipitate the real steady downward moves? Events that indicate that the US is not invincible.

What drives the market up is confirmation of the illusion that the US is insulated from the world's problems. The taking of hits with a lower impact than expected increases confidence in this idea. The market dropped on Russia because of what the market was afraid might happen, but not much happened, so it went back up. The market soared on news of what Greenspan might do. The market dropped on what might happen because of the Starr report, and ran back up when it looked like not much will happen. Clinton has been found not-guilty in the court of the DOW. Asia has melted down, yet US corporate earnings seem on the whole uneffected. Latin America started to melt down, but it has recovered somewhat, and the US has said it'll jump in and help before things get out of hand. This all reinforces what the market badly wants to believe: there's not much to be afraid of. We're invincable. We're different. Better. The best.

Nothing bad happened today. The market rose on the lack of bad news.

From my reading on the topic, this is the nature of manias. The event that dispels the notion of invincibility has not yet ocurred and is not predictable. But it will. And the mass realization of the folly of the belief of invincibility will be nearly instantaneous.

But no one can say when it will happen.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:01 - ID#229207)
Still don't have tomorrow
Predictions of this bull's impending demise have been floating around literally for years. Right about now, you're wondering if the bear predictions are once more wrong again and you're missing out on the next big run-up.

Well, a market decline is a hard thing to call to the day or week or month. As Mark Twain said, "October is a risky month for the stock market. So is May, December, February, June, March, September, April, July, August, January, and November."

Relative to the Nikkei in its decline from it's bubble heights of 39,000 to its low of 16,000, before it's more recent decline to around 14,000, the DOW is now around 33,000. What will precipitate the real steady downward moves? Events that indicate that the US is not invincible.

What drives the market up is confirmation of the illusion that the US is insulated from the world's problems. The taking of hits with a lower impact than expected increases confidence in this idea. The market dropped on Russia because of what the market was afraid might happen, but not much happened, so it went back up. The market soared on news of what Greenspan might do. The market dropped on what might happen because of the Starr report, and ran back up when it looked like not much will happen. Clinton has been found not-guilty in the court of the DOW. Asia has melted down, yet US corporate earnings seem on the whole uneffected. Latin America started to melt down, but it has recovered somewhat, and the US has said it'll jump in and help before things get out of hand. This all reinforces what the market badly wants to believe: there's not much to be afraid of. We're invincable. We're different. Better. The best.

Nothing bad happened today. The market rose on the lack of bad news.

From my reading on the topic, this is the nature of manias. The event that dispels the notion of invincibility has not yet ocurred and is not predictable. But it will. And the mass realization of the folly of the belief of invincibility will be nearly instantaneous.

But no one can say when it will happen.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:01 - ID#255151)
JTF @ 17:10

Good summary about lies begetting more lies, resulting in an unstable bubble that must eventually collapse. That analysis also applies to the present bubble in the world economy, especially as it applies to derivatives and stock markets.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:06 - ID#42039)
French Minister of Finance,Dominique Strauss-Kahn,today:
"We need a new Bretton-wood".He simply could have said we need a new financial system....

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:10 - ID#413307)
@ Gollum re your 7:32 am post: If CBs have raised lease rates by
81%, signalling a decline in available leased gold, you should be
aware, that an 81% increase on the previous one month lease rate
brings the rate up to only .74%. Although this is a decent
increase and may signal a trend upwards, it is still well below
1%, and can only be interpreted as plentiful liquidity in the
leasing 'market'. Anytime gold is leased at less than 1% indicates
there is plenty available to throw at any bull spike in POG.

If that lease rate goes over 1%, that may signal a tightening in
supply. In April of this year, lease rates rose to 3.5% for one
day, and a combination of rumors and short selling ( at forward rates
that left negligible gold carry profits ) knocked the incipient bull
back down to where we find ourselves today. Lease rates below 1% mean
no bull. If the Fed does not drop rates in time, we could go to
$200 per oz. I am still not buying. Not again. This gold spike
is a dead cat bounce. So say lease rates. If lease rates rise, or
the Fed lowers, then we have a bull after the DOW crash. November to
January. Certainly the bull will be initiated by Jan. The Europeans
will want to raise the POG by then. Even the Americans may want to
raise POG by then! Devaluation beats a depression!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:13 - ID#229207)
Supposed to read: "Still don't have tomorrow's newspaper"
Mutual fund owners will not sell until they begin to lose money on their original investment. For someone like my sister, that means after the market has lost more than 30% of its July 1998 peak. And even then she'll probably stay in until it becomes painfully obvious that the market is not going up again for years. That's what our Dad did in the 1960s, and as a result the family fortune is half what it'd be otherwise.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:15 - ID#284255)
Worth a look?>
The project above was udnertaken by the Central IT Unit, which appears to be
responsible directly to the UK Cabinet Office. The report itself was
undertaken by Ernst & Young, and they were briefed to "identify the main
processes which make up the country's essential services infrastructure, the
interdependencies between the processes, and the potential outcomes of
process failures".

Note to readers:
Populationwise, a UK County is more directly comparable to a US State than
to a US County.
I interpret region to mean an area including multiple counties and/or the
major cities on their own.

Among the gems herein, are:

Critical failures in the Magistrates- and Crown- Courts system ( essentially,
the criminal courts as opposed to the civil courts ) :
Impact will be civil disorder inside one week, affecting parts of the UK or
majorly impacting localities.

Critical failures in the maintenance of public order ( essentially, the
Police ) :
Impact will be loss of life and civil disorder inside 24 hours, affecting
the entire country. Commercial inefficiency would be seen inside 7 days.

Critical failures in social provision, apparently including the NHS.
Loss of life and civil disorder possible at local levels inside a month.

Critical failures in dealing with Deaths:
Note: *Every* dependancy except two are marked as 'Critical'. One is
"Provide oil". The other is "Perform religeous services".
Critical failures would lead to regional public health problems inside a

Critical failures in emergency services:
Loss of life: Inside 24 hours, affecting regions
Civil disorder: Inside 7 days, affecting regions
National economy: visible inside 1 month, affecting regions
Public Health: Inside 7 days, affecting regions

Critical failures in paying welfare:
Note: I notice that one of the impacts considered here is the effect of
critical failures on the New Deal, the current gov'ts pet project.
Personal hardship: Inside one week, affecting entire country.
Civil disorder: Inside a month, affecting entire country ( with a note that
public perception may require this to be modified to inside a week )
Political Impact of New Deal failures: Inside a week, affecting regions or
entire country.

The above is advice to the UK government, and not necessarily what the
goverment expects.
I've not yet found any info on the expected longevity of these problems.
The report seems to look at the effect of failures on critical dependancies
in the national infrastructure, and their effects.

Find the original report at:

This lot tends to support the North kinda view IMO, and I'd be surprised if
such an examination of failure consequences didn't make it to his site. Hope
its still up for ya, Gary!

Steve in TO
(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:15 - ID#209265)
Central Banks Predicted to Sell More Gold

Central banks, whose gold sales have been widely blamed for helping to drive down the price in August to the lowest level for 18
years, are set to report that they have sold at least another 260 tonnes.

This prediction comes from the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy, widely believed to have some of the best contacts in the

The 260 tonnes, or 8.36m troy ounces, has a market value of about $2.4bn and is equivalent to about 10 per cent of global mine

GFMS suggests in its latest review that 88 tonnes ( 2.8m ounces ) of gold flowed from central bank reserves in the first half of this

"Early indications suggest that central bank sales will pick up in the second half," said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of
GFMS. "Our information is that there has been a certain amount of forward market activity and we would expect sales to

In recent years, Argentina, Belgium, Canada and the Netherlands have reported central bank gold sales. When Australia, one of
the world's big producers, announced in July last year it had sold 167 tonnes ( 5.4m ounces ) , the gold price dropped to a 12-year low.

Last week, Luxembourg's central bank admitted it had sold most of its gold, estimated by Mr Klapwijk to be 11 tonnes.

The Czech National Bank revealed on Friday it had taken advantage of a rising price to sell 31 tonnes from its reserves.

"The [Czech] tonnage is pretty small and is unlikely to have a disastrous effect on prices," said Kamal Naqvi, analyst at
Macquarie, the Australian bank. "The concern now is that there may be other emerging countries that may sell gold."

The price did not react to the two central bank announcements because uncertainty in the financial markets caused gold to rise
during the week by $13 an ounce, or 4.5 per cent, to $293 at the close in London on Friday.

This was well clear of the 18-year low of $278.50 an ounce on August 28.

The Financial Times, September 14, 1998

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:18 - ID#229207)
260 tonnes sold
260 tonnes bought.

By whom?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:24 - ID#226307)
LGB: D.A. was right -- your wager offer was way out of line with
the going rate on S&P index options. I bought some S&P October
700 put options today for $1.25 ( $125 for 1 contract.

When the DJIA crashes to 3000, the S&P should drop to 400.
That would make each $125 contract worth about $30,000.
So the marketplace is giving a better deal than you are.

Of course, this is with money I can afford to lose. Nonetheless,
I wouldn't have bought these options if I didn't believe the market
was going to crash to 3000 very soon.


Steve Puetz

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:26 - ID#43349)
That was all I could find later than Sept 4, this morning when you were looking fo lease rate info.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:26 - ID#248180)
260 tonnes Gold Sold - Who are the BUYERS???
EJ: It is most interesting that we are always advised regarding the sellers, I for one would be most interested in the information and identity of the buyers.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:27 - ID#335190)
Farmers ask U.S. for billions of dollars in aid @ Industrial Farmers EH!
Mad Cow Disease: Industrial Farming Comes Home To Roost---
by Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber

Illustrations by Sue Coe

Finally, TSEs are characterized by an even longer incubation period than the aids virus. Cases have been documented in which more than 40 years have elapsed between the time of exposure and the onset of symptoms.

In the high-tech world of factory farms, cannibalism is not only practiced, but is preached as the latest miracle of modern efficiency and progress.

These days, however, in the high-tech world of factory farms,cannibalism and other unnatural feeding patterns are not only practiced but preached as the latest miracles of modern efficiency and progress.

It remains legal to feed rendered cattle protein to pigs or chickens, whose remains can in turn be rendered and fed back to cattle.In addition, pigs are still eating pigs, and chickens are routinely fed with protein supplements derived from the feathers, blood, and even the feces of other chickens.

Slaughterhouses and tanneries provided blood, entrails,hoofs, bristles, and feathers for use in animal feed. [Industry provided] wastes such as sawdust, wood chips, twigs, and even ground-up newspapers and cardboard boxes [as well as] cement dust from kilns, sludge from municipal composting plants, water from electric generating plants that used fluidized bed combustion of coal, and waste water from nuclear power stations. ...[Agriculture provided] _the Four Ds_ dead, dying, disabled, and diseased animals ... moisture-damaged or maggot- infested grains; foods contaminated by rodents, roaches, or bird excreta.

These innovations exist because they are a cheap source of nutrients and a convenient way for large-scale farming operations to dispose of wastes.
Most have occurred in the past two decades, aided and abetted by the usda and by university research scientists, whose pilot projects and experimental samplings have "demonstrated" that "alternative feed substances" can be used safely.

The number so far is small, and it is possible that it will stay small, but that is by no means certain. Like aids, the spongiform encephalopathies are diseases that can take years, even decades, to incubate, thereby making it impossible to predict the size of an outbreak during its early stages.

This parallel has been noted by Luc Montagnier, the French scientist who in 1983 first discovered the infectious agent that causes aids. At that time, France had only 200 aids cases. "I did not realize the epidemic could spread so fast and so widely in the world," he said, warning that the handful of early human victims from mad cow disease could be the harbinger of a much larger epidemic. "It is very difficult to predict, as it was for HIV in 1983," he said.

No TSE had ever been documented in cows until the mid-1980s, and the total number of bovine cases did not top 1,000 until 1988. Since then, however, more than 160,000 cows have been diagnosed and scientists concur that most were infected during the period when the British government was confidently claiming that "the number of confirmed cases ... is very small."15 "

In those days, it really was hard; in fact, nobody honestly could foresee what was going to happen," British researcher Richard Kimberlin said in 1996. "Now it is all painfully clear, the sheer scale of the epidemic."

Media coverage of the food disparagement laws has trivialized the issues with cutesy wordplay about"veggie hate crimes."

If we let industry set the rules of the debate, there will literally be no limit to what we'll have to swallow.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:27 - ID#119358)
@in the still midst o' the night, there comes a sudden THUD..........
then a terrible SCREAM like that of a great wounded cat....OOOOOUUUUUUUhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!....then, another THUD!!!....and yet another.....THUD!!!! and then a silence so deathly complete that the living hath a great fear of it.
"For if thy name is Count Rubin, or Count Camdessus, you must know that thou art next, otherwise do rid thyself of any fear."
Fear not! For it is only Master Studio, patient carver of the oaken stake, splitting open the heartless, rancid cavern of the Grand Count Greenspan. Oh, Studio. Thou art the safe keeper of this night. And it is only by your just hand that this night shall no longer offer sweet cover for this blood addicted scoundrel. Alas, not one moment more. oh sweet studio......

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:30 - ID#432148)
Bretton-wood worked very well for a long time, what we need is a financial system like Bretton-wood that will work well for a long time, based like B W on the yellow metal! It will come, the question is when?
Weak politicians is what caused its demise, what we need are some stong ones. Do you know of any? At the moment our U.S. leader hardly fits the bill. God help us all. Sharfin, you got it right. Hang in there.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:32 - ID#347447)
A gulp to ya, from the Island that is Lonnnnnnng
Steve: I'm so glad its money you can afford to lose. I think you're ahead already. Hope you eclipse yourself someday, but not this time. Love yA- MIKEY.

ALL: Today's speach ( sic ) by Clinton is the handwriting on the wall for INFLATIONE AVANTI!
Now, I don't know if it's too late, and DEflatione will conquer all, but it is very clear that all de Central bankers gonna get togedder and roll de presses. No?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:32 - ID#288295)
rhody @ Lease rates

Did you see Dabchick's post to you today at 9:06?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:34 - ID#413307)
@ Steve in To: You seem upset concerning that 260 tons of gold
that may be sold by CBs on top of the 88 tons so far this year.
In an average year, CBs sell about 400 tons of gold. 260 more tons
would bring us up to only 90% of average. This is further indication
of a tightening in world gold supplies, and all in the face of the
greatest financial crisis since 1930!

I am surprised that CB gold sales are this low, since after Dec.
the ECB will more tightly oversee member bank gold sales and leasing
terms. This is the last chance for dishoarding by European CBs.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:37 - ID#219363)
Your movie "The Trigger Effect" is coming on at 8pm, Cinemax.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:39 - ID#413307)
@ Silverbaron: No. I shall check back. I had to run to work.
I am back at my day and night job. I am a teacher.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:39 - ID#43349)
Wow. Two rally days back to back. Looks good, hunh?.....NOT!

Tomorrow will quite likely close 300 or more points lower.

Somebody go wake up Golden Prohet and make sure he has his capital letter keys all warmed up.

The Ides of September are behind us, prepare for the depths.

Maybe I should go looking for a submarine company.

Bears of the world, awake! Your day is at hand.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:39 - ID#237299)
clktech@your "IMF broke.."

Broke?! Those guys are amazing. Gotta' take to go before
congress and whine that they're broke, when they have over 3000 tonnes
of gold in their coffers ( 104.3 million ounces )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:44 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller @ 19:32

Fully agree. Greenspan and company are going to go balls out in an attempt to stave off a deflationary collapse. But they are going to try to make it look like they are not going balls out stave off a deflationary collapse. Hence the cautious, arcane language. Make no mistake, they are going to inflate the money supply like there is no tomorrow. Which, for them, there will not be if they don't.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:47 - ID#43349)
The streets will flow with red ink
Does anyone know a good red ink company I can buy some calls for?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:48 - ID#401460)

CB Gold sales, who do they sell it to?
Who buys that much Gold?
They always report the sale, why not the buy.
Why don't they say so and so bought 200 tons of Gold?


(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:48 - ID#206235)
@ Puetz....
I KNEW you'd wait for someone like DA to come to the rescue with the "I can get a better bet deal in S&P Puts" excuse, Puetz. That's EXACTLY why I made it clear in my original post, early AM, this was a "gentleman's wager" proposition quite apart from the market.

It's quite true that no one in their right mind would take such odds....unless they really believed in their own rhetoric, and felt that making "JUST" 100% on a small bet, might be worth the credibility of backing up mouth with money.

However, it certainly doesn't surprise me that you have once again, NOT done so!


(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:48 - ID#284255)
Food for thought?
Clinton's pushing congress for an extra $18 billion for the IMF. So the
IMF can bail out multinational investors in foreign countries. I wonder if
the $18 billion would be better spent on solving the US government's Y2K

(Mon Sep 14 1998 19:51 - ID#287114)
Question ??

Who purchases the gold from the gold mines.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:00 - ID#206235)
@ Puetz.....NEW wager proposition
Hmmm, I have a NEW wager idea for you then Puetz, since you don't want to put up anything of monetary value.

How about this..... ( stealing from Realistic now ) ...

If the DOW is at 4000 or below on October first, then I will be required to come to this site and type "I am an idiot" 15 times, and sign it "LGB".

If the DOW is ABOVE 4000 on October first, then you have to do the same....but only ONCE! Now that's 10:1 odds isn't it? Not bad for a sure thing??


(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:03 - ID#237299)
Hey Bart! nice graphic on the address notice

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:05 - ID#413307)
@ Highrise: Who can tell who buys it? Some 'sales' are swaps
between CBs, that are reportedf as sales in order to imply that
they are dumping on the spot market, or will dump on the spot
market in future. CBs are paper merchants and have a vested
interest in keeping the POG down and appreciation of paper assets

If CBs do actually dump on the spot market, then:

1. buyers may be too numerous to list, given the volume of sale

2. buyers don't want to have their names made public a la W Buffett.

Who Cares?
(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:06 - ID#242214)
Modified Wager !

LBug has to type "I am not worthy of Puetz's newsletter" ten times. :0

They're going to do, chums. 30-year treasury has been below 5.5% for
several days now, and now 30-year mortages are down 6.76%!

If the powers-that-be can keep those two targets for a few months,
they'll have effectively postponed the crash. : )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:08 - ID#284255)
If I had any brains I'd go with the Oct 700 puts @ $125
At least they're honest in their pricing schemes.

And why so vindicive.
Lowering yourself to Realistic's standards does not meet with the new reformed version of LGB.

I well remember your comments when Loral was brought to attention some while back.

None of us are perfect - least of all me.

I'm sure Steve well realizes what he has to live with.
With out salt being constantly applied.

Live and let live.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:10 - ID#173274)
@the scene
BUGal -- Your tune is getting old. Put up your own end-of-month target and perhaps Puetz will bet YOU on IT!

Steve in TO
(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:11 - ID#209265)
Mike - What did . . .
Clinton say in his speech today that indicates he's going to inflate? ( I missed it. ) Of course we know that he knows his goose will be cooked for sure if the economy tanks, so he's sure to use every desperate measure available to prop the markets and the economy up.

- Steve

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:12 - ID#288295)
A nice return on cash ( relative to stocks ) begins after intermission Tuesday. Gold mining stock owners - close stops may be in order if gold doesn't perk up immediately. The next couple days may validate our esteemed friend Jeil's projections, if we get a break thru HM 10 1/2 and ASA 17 7/8 ( or thereabouts ) .

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:25 - ID#333126)
Realistic and LGB (since I'm a betting man)
what odds would you give for DOW 5500 or below by end of October?

( only can afford some funny money though )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:27 - ID#43349)
And even before intermission. Dive! Dive! Dive!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:28 - ID#237299)
on Steve's put contracts:
I suppose the ultimate in tragic ironies would be if the market actually
DID fall that low, and then recovered before the expiration on the

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:32 - ID#43349)
Next months paper
Shows DOW just under 6000 near end of October.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:35 - ID#31876)
A Comparison of the Price of Gold (And Other Things) 1927 to 1998
I think the authors got some of their ideas from Donald.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:36 - ID#288295)

And there will be some very nice Christmas presents for those who buy it there.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:39 - ID#42039)
GOLDBUG23:your 19h30post
I agree with you.What I precisely meant is that french minister of finance didn t say today something fuzzy ( for once ) .He suggested us that a New Gold Standard is needed ( if not he could have said simply we need a new financial system:idea which almost begins to be a banality ) . He made a direct reference to gold.
He added to the journalists"we are now in a hurry to find this solution".

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:39 - ID#43349)
Yes. Definitely. A very merry Christmas indeed. Actually, anyone still solvent in November will have a pretty good Thanksgiving too.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:40 - ID#401460)

Thanks, for the response.

Most likely, the latter.
"buyers don't want their names known"

I also think much of the selling is the balancing of accounts between countries.

The entire Gold market is very hidden. Why are we in it when we can't even figure out who is buying and selling it, let alone when,where, how, etc.

Very Frustrating, it is like going to the track and betting on a horse because you like the color of the jockeys jersey.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:40 - ID#45173)
WSJ opines today's market platitudes
"Stocks surged on Wall Street Monday amid hopes that stability is returning to the Japanese and Russian economies. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 1.9%, to about 7945, edging back into positive territory for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 24 points, or 1.5%, to 1666."

The operative word is, "hopes."

Alas, our hopes and dreams are crassly disrespected by the market.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:40 - ID#335190)
USofA Farmers want billions (Corporate Welfare) @ Industrial Farmers EH! & Election year
September 14, 1998

U.S. Senate signals aid soon for cash-short farmers

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. Senate Monday signaled willingness to help farmers caught in an abrupt world grain and livestock price downturn, most likely through a multibillion-dollar program of direct payments to growers.

Groups ranging from the mainstream American Farm Bureau Federation to the activist National Farmers Union say several billion dollars will be needed for farmers to survive the recession that may persist for another year or two.

"I'm recommending some kind of assistance payment ... some cash-flow payment," said Sen. Pat Roberts, Kansas Republican.

Idaho Republican Larry Craig agreed with Democrats that "we have a crisis in farm country" but not with their solution. He called for a "'lost market' payment" to offset sales forfeited due to unilateral U.S. trade embargoes.

Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, the only Republican to vote for the Democratic package, has suggested wheat farmers should get $3.2 billion in a "sanctions indemnity" payment.

While Republicans said direct payments were the simplest way to help farmers without disrupting global markets, Democrats have insisted on more favorable "marketing" loans to farmers, making each bushel of corn, wheat and soybeans worth an additional 30 to 58 cents per bushel.

With marketing loans, farmers can pocket the difference between the loan rate and their selling price.

Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin vainly argued that higher loan rates would benefit farmers now, when bills are due.

"If we make a ( direct ) payment to farmers ... a welfare check goes out. A lot of these people won't be in farming next year," Harkin said.

"Republicans won't be able to resist with elections coming up."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:42 - ID#275194)
Elliot Wave: It looks like the a-b-c-d-e 4th wave completed today!
This means we should be down hard to new lows for the 5th wave.If wave 5 is equal to wave 1, then we will bottom in 7000 to 7100 area. If you remember, this is the target area for wave 1 times ( x ) 1.618. Interesting how it seems to come together.
I spent the weekend looking at the financial situation from a global, sentiment, and technical perspective.
I'll be honest with you guys, it looks very ominus. It's as if no one ( except those at Kitco ) have a clue as to what is truly unfolding right now.
This talk that we are seeing about BANKS globally, and the losses that they are taking as a result of all factors ( derivatives mostly ) is seaming to fall on deaf ears.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:43 - ID#317211)
BUGal & Steve - My mining stocks are still down 30% from when I bought
I am an idiot. I am an idiot. I am an idiot. I am an idiot. I am an idiot

Kick me. Kick me. kick me. Kick me. Kick me. Kick me. Kick me. Kick me.

Now, what do I win? ( I mean "when do I win". )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:44 - ID#333126)
Obsidian (on those puts)
I'm sure that if the market did fall that low, Mr. Puetz would have sold off enough of them to make a tidy profit long before expiry. ;- )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:44 - ID#43349)
Just like the 519 point drop. Don't be anything unless it's on the short side. Then, next week, as margin calls hit, precious metals take off.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:46 - ID#43349)
I await, with breathless anticipation, what the WSJ will have to say tomorrow.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:47 - ID#413307)
@ Dabchick: Thank you for your post at 9:06. I have plotted
spot POG against one month lease rates back to early 1988. Lease rates
rise in two situations:

1. When gold is falling rapidly, as between Jan 1988 and Nov. 1989.
Here, the heavy demand for one month gold was the product of
speculators borrowing to short. Gold dropped here from about 485
to 360 over 20 months. Lease rates reached 3.25%

2. When gold has bottomed, and begins to rise again, lease rates drop
first below 1%, and then begin to rise before gold does. You can
see this in the Feb to Dec 1990 period, and in the June 1994 to
Dec 1994 period where leases stayed below 1% for over a year before
beginning a rise in mid 1994 that eventually induced a spike in
Dec-Jan 1995 to over $400 from $360.

I agree that the period of mid 1993 to end of 1994 was a period of
stable gold prices in the $375 range, but so were lease rates low
and fairly stable below 1% until mid '94 when they began to rise
befor POG did. This period of extended low lease rates was also
characterized by low forward rates, so the gold carry was not on.

Lease rates must be viewed in conjunction with forward rates.
When lease rates were high in 1989, they operated in sync with
forward rates to bring POG down, as the gold carry kicked in
with a vengence. There is a lag theough

The situation today seems similar to early 1990, with gold bottoming,
lease rates under 1%,but only for a month or so and forward rates
declining from 6% ( inflation was higher back then. ) Gold jumped $50
but only after lease rates rose from .8% to 3% with leases moving up

Lease rates are a big part of the gold market. A. Greenspan called
gold leasing the primary means of POG control by CBs as he made his
Congressional report in July.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:54 - ID#43349)
That could be a bit optimistic. Since 1962 most bear markets have bottomed at about 50% of their runup. If this bull of all bulls bottoms at 50% of it's run up from 1991, it will be a little below 6000. On the other hand the good folks at MRCI show about 7200.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:55 - ID#228128)
I am thinking the same thing regarding your wave count. I'm also thinking about what it would take to prove wrong. If we get another leg up from here it would indicate that we are moving in the bull wave mode again, correct? What are your thoughts.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:55 - ID#333126)
misinterpretation in HK causes drawdown of foreign reserves...hehe

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:58 - ID#275194)
have you ever known them to call a top at the top? I guess they think they can call
the bottom at........... Also when everyone is pointing to contrary indicators, it's not contrary!

Add a Company...

BOOKS  Business books at Barnesand

 Web Search
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And More!
 Pervasive Market Gloom May Be A Buy Signal

September 13, 1998 7:29 AM EDT

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street has gone through some tough times but some experts say the best time to buy stocks is when things seem to be as bad as they can get.

Sure, the global economic malaise that ravaged the market over the last seven weeks is ongoing. But what's encouraging is that the contagion may not get worse and spread to other countries.

Some investors, who use early warning signals or contrarian indications, are getting ready for the next big move up.

They see a break in the clouds, expecting a recovery next year in the battered Asian countries, which might fuel the next great bull market.

In the United States, the economy is still in great shape with inflation practically nonexistent. The prospect of a drop in interest rates before the end of the year makes stocks more appealing, the experts say.

``The news needs to stay bad to set the stage for what we expect to drive the next super-cycle bull market,'' said Don Hays, chief investment strategist strategist for Wheat First Union.

He said, for instance, one of the most reliable bull market signals occurs when all the economic numbers show a recession has started, not when the data show the recession is over.

Right now, most investors are singing the Dow Jones blues, and bullishness is not rampant on Wall Street.

Investors are worried about lagging corporate earnings and the possibility that President Clinton may face impeachment proceedings over the White House sex scandal.

Analysts said investors should look for clues that suggest the market might be set for a rebound.

Another reliable bull market alert is the stock trading activity of corporate insiders.

They are the people that have access to inside information -- senior officials such as directors and chief executive officers -- who draw much of their compensations from stock options.

The officials tend to have a good idea about their companies' future earnings prospects and professional traders shadow the corporate leaders on the belief that where there's smoke, there's fire.

Frank Ponticello, senior analyst for Prudential Securities, said there has been a jump in insider's buying of stocks recently.

The insider buying over the past month soared to an unusually high 61 percent. Normally, the consensus insider buying ranges between 30 percent and 45 percent.

The insiders have been known to scoop up stocks at the right time, having bought at a feverish pace after the 1987 market crash, the 1990 panic sell-off and in late 1994 and early 1995 when the market embarked on its strongest bull run ever.

``The current buying shows bullish confidence by the insiders,'' said Ponticello. ``The buying has mostly been in secondary stocks, which are in a bear market, and it would appear to be bottom fishing.''

Ponticello said that while the insiders' buying may be a signal that the market may have bottomed out, he cautioned that some insiders have been wrong in the past.

``It may not necessarily mean that they are right in the timing or their pricing point,'' he said. ``We've seen insiders buy natural gas and oil drillers six or seven months ago, and the stocks are still down 30 percent.''

Another contrarian indication says articles in major national publications may signal the time of a market turnaround.

According to the theory, when non-financial publications issue bearish articles it may be time to buy stocks, while bullish coverage could be a bearish signal.

The reason is that the publications tend to pick up on Wall Street situations only after they have been around.

Often, by the time the editors catch on to a market event, Wall Streeters tend to view it as confirming the maturity of the extreme market move rather than announcing that it is ongoing or beginning.

Coincidentally, the Sept. 14 issue of Time magazine has a cover story, entitled ``The Bears of Summer.'' It asks the question: ``Is the boom over?''

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 155.25. The Nasdaq composite index gained 75.12 to 1,641.64 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 35.17 to 1,009.06.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 20:59 - ID#259400)
Lease Rates
I am still not clear on which comes first the chicken or the egg? Do central banks regulate the price of gold by raising and lowering the lease rates or does the rising or falling price of gold affect the lease rates. Which comes first?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:06 - ID#43349)
Does it have to be a chicken egg, or will any egg do?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:08 - ID#43460)
Underground Economies
I don't usually post excerpts from newsletters but this one is interesting and timely:

-----Begin forwarded material-----


The growth of the underground economy is a matter of increasing

concern throughout Europe. Although this black market or

unofficial economy includes criminal activity, most of it

consists of ordinary goods and services driven underground by

excessive taxation and unreasonable regulations.

o An unpublished report by the European Union says that

underground economic activity may account for between 7

percent and 16 percent of the total gross domestic product

( GDP ) of its member nations.

o In the EU, the underground economy employs between 10

million and 28 million workers and accounts for 7 to 19

percent of employment.

o A study by Austrian economist Friedrich Schneider of

Johannes Kepler University says the underground economy

ranges in size from 6.6 percent of Gross National Product

( GNP ) in Switzerland to nearly 26 percent in Italy ( see

figure ) .

However, the largest underground economies of the area

unquestionably exist in the formerly Communist countries of

Eastern Europe ( see figure ) .

o In Russia a U.S. Treasury-sponsored study put the

underground economy at close to 50 percent of official

gross domestic product ( GDP ) .

o A 1996 study by the prime minister's office in Hungary

found that 17 percent to 25 percent of the average

family's expenditures were in the black market.

o And earlier this year, Serbia demanded that all property

and vehicle sales be transacted through the banks, in an

effort to stamp out cash-only sales in the underground


Authorities frequently attack the problem with arrests and

prosecutions, but experts say the incentive to make money free of

tax or government control is too great for such methods to have

more than a modest impact.

Source: Bruce Bartlett ( NCPA Senior Fellow ) , "Europe's

Underground Economies," Brief Analysis No. 278, September 4,

1998, National Center for Policy Analysis, 12655 North Central

Expy., Suite 720, Dallas, Texas 75243, ( 972 ) 386-6272.

For text go to

For more on Europe

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:10 - ID#333126)
IMF and the banana republic

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:11 - ID#219363)
Remember This ?
Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 12:54
Envy ( Online Investment ) ID#219363:
Okay, who wants to "invest" a dollar on where the DOW will be on the 1st of October 1998 ? Somebody will have to track the list of "speculative investors". Pick your number and who ever is closest at the close on the last day of trading in September takes it and is responsible for posting the names of the people who don't pay up so we can all give them a hard time until they do. *grin*.

Anybody in ?

If you win, everyone on the forum who "invested" will thereafter be required to refer to you by your new title "kitco king so-and-so" or "so-and-so the kitco king".

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 13:00
Envy ( Online Investment ) ID#219363:
Oh, or "so-and-so the kitco queen" as appropriate. sorry ladies.
Investment window closes the final minute of July 1998.

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 14:36
Mtn Bear ( SE ) ( I'm In! ) ID#347267:
@ Envy: Plunge Prot Team will operate once or twice before Oct 1,
so I say Dow will be 9,138; ( Getting ready for the BIG DROP a little later ) .

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 13:53
trader_vic__A ( Envy ) ID#369352:
I say 5,869 and Falling.

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 13:47
jonesy ( @ Envy ) ID#251166:
A buck says 10,008.

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 13:30
MM ( Envy ) ID#350179:
RNG system predicts with very little reliability that the DOW close on 01-Oct-1998 will be 8595.15 That's ( Random Number Generator ) - works pretty good for trifectas ; )

Date: Fri Jul 24 1998 13:23
Gollum ( @Envy ) ID#35571:
I'd get into your little DOW contest except it would be taking unfair advatntage since I already know the DOW closes September at 8876.75

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:13 - ID#290213)
Some time back someone ( T1 or Sharfin I think ) posted a site that had solar power equipment, chargers for AA and D batteries and other such items. In my usual manner I bookmarked and lost the site. If someone could repost it I would appreciate it. Also, any recommendations on generators for powering a water well, refrigerators, etc... also appreciated.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:14 - ID#284255)
Jo Anne effect 109 days to go....................
OK people, the executive summary is, we don't have 474 days, we have 109
days now... Something will happen, hopefully it will be bad enough to
be a wake up call but not so bad that I'm running for the farm...
leaving a trail of donut crumbs in my wake.

Specificly to denial-heads; don't try to weigh the impact of this one or
ask for proof that XYZ corp or ABC industry is unprepared. The Jo Anne
effect is an issue that was created by mental effort, sort of like doing
a mathematical proof. It isn't traceable to an industry or a corp, it
comes from an understanding of the fundamental logic.

1 ) no one is prepared.
2 ) time is very short. It starts in 109 days or less, not 474 days.
3 ) the code-heads, the PROgrammers, immediately recognized the problem.

On Sun, 13 Sep 1998 18:49:19, Jim Rivera wrote:

Jo Anne, you are correct, this will happen in some accounting systems
this way, let me shed some light on the other way. I am aware of
significant amounts of COBOL code that will do some interesting things
after 1/1/1999. This is the ( by now well known here ) situtation where a
"flag" value in a file would be a record with a date value of all 9s:
year = 99, month = 99, day = 99.

I am positive that there is a significant amount of code ( probably no a
majority ) that is actually running our banks, airlines, etc that was
written to not test all of the date items, but just one of them, and in
many cases the test will look like this for the standard way:

( goes & does interesting things )

The case I am talking about might be:

( goes & does interesting things )

How often does this happen? we'll find out in about six months. I
base this projection on the following scenario that will occur in
perhaps 8-10% ( that number is an educated guess ) of organizations:

Dec 1998-Jan 1999 Failures due to YEAR = 99 begin
One day later Panic sets in
One week later Desperate efforts to fix begin
Feb 1999 Cash flow problems are evident
Mar 1999 Cash flow problems too big, boom.

Will your effect or the one I have described make a bigger impact?
Practically speaking it won't matter because they will be partners in
disaster, there will be enough trouble to go around. Many organization
will have both problems, though. The details won't matter, it will be
more like a car's engine that has neither oil or water; the exact
details of the failure will be be academic. I will point out that
either problem is enough to stop an organization's activities dead in
their tracks. Think of strange & wonderful things, happening all at

Jo Anne Slaven wrote:

I have read over 100 posts today referencing the Jo Anne Effect, and I
sense that many of the newer members of the newsgroup don't have a good
understanding of what the Jo Anne Effect is, or where it originated. I
will try to provide an explanation here.

Back in April 1998, there was a great deal of discussion going on in
this newsgroup about the 1999 problem. Many people thought that
"look-ahead" programs would be a problem ( they will, but not the biggest
problem ) and others thought that the appearance of the magic "1999"
would automatically cause difficulties.

I am not a programmer. I am an accountant. I looked at the issue from
the point of view of an accountant, and I came up with the following
[this is from Deja News]

Being an accountant who has worked with many mainframe and PC accounting
systems, I can tell you that when a new fiscal year starts, the system
has to know what the last day of the fiscal year will be. For a fiscal
year beginning on, say, April 1, 1999, there will be 12 monthly
accounting periods it will have to recognize. April 30, 1999 up to March
31, 2000.

In my mind, I can see the computer thinking that the months are out of
order just as soon as fiscal 1999 is closed and fiscal 2000 is opened
up. Then what happens? Will it show Jan 1 00 as the first day of the
fiscal year by accident? Or will the software simply decide that the
whole thing is just too ridiculous for words, and shut down completely?

Since I wrote this, Cory, and a few others, have expanded on my ideas.
However, the main premise of the Jo Anne Effect has always been that
problems may occur when a company has a fiscal year containing dates in
both 1999 and 2000 - difficulties may be encountered when the accounting
software has to sort dates with years "99" and "00" in the same fiscal

I don't have any idea what will happen. I don't have the hardware or
software to do any testing. If anyone out there is able to muck around
with this, please do, and let us all know what happens.

( Then maybe we'll have a new person to name this after. )

Jo Anne, whose dog is very happy to see her home after a week away

I'd like to hear Sen. Bennett, the FDIC, and the SEC demanding proof
that Agencies and corporations have tested for and fixed Jo Anne Effect
problems. ...that would be tres cool.

cory hamasaki 474 days, 109 days until the Jo Anne Effect.

Seems like it's time to forget about Clintons past escapades and making preparations.

Got Gold, grub and guns????

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:14 - ID#237299)
ravenfire: about selling the contracts prior to expiration

Well, yes...but your assuming someone with rational behaviour. ;- )

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:14 - ID#275194)
Gollum, IDT; This will complete wave (1), then we will have that wonderful
suck everyone back in wave ( 2 ) rally.
IDT, E waves in a 4th wave sometimes go beyond where you think they should stop. So far this has been textbook Elliot wave. The PPT with help from WJC ( if you could call that help ) did what they could today to keep this thing going, and change the sentiment. It rolled over late in the day anyway.
I caught myself getting too negative, or so I thought, until I realized that it's not about Stock Markets at all. It's about global destabilization in the currencies, massive losses in the banking system and deflation. Banks are on the verge of default EVERYWHERE! This is real and is comming to a theater near YOU!!!!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:19 - ID#335190)
G7=G8=G10=G11=G22 @ Globalization
eptember 14, 1998

FOCUS-G7 rallies behind U.S. on economic turmoil

WASHINGTON, Sept 14 ( Reuters ) - Top industrial nations rallied behind the U.S. administration on Monday in a carefully staged show of support for the world economy, vowing to do whatever it takes to pull it back from the brink of disaster.

Barely an hour later, the G7 released a statement in which it warned that the risk of a global slowdown had increased because of the rapid spread of financial turmoil across the world.

"There is a general truth that the magnitude of the deterioration in the external environment is much greater than had been previously anticipated," a U.S. administration official told reporters later in the day.

The communique, drawn up during a series of conference calls this weekend between top G7 officials, in close coordination with the Fed and Greenspan himself, also "noted the importance of close cooperation""among major industrial nations.

Rubin said Washington's aim was to "extend the reach of the G22 into a set of broader issues." The group is expected to meet during a gathering of officials from the International Monetary Fund's 182 member nations in Washington from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8.

The G22 contains the G7 -- the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada -- plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Singapore, South Africa and Thailand.

But Washington's ability to deal with the outside world remains hobbled by domestic political scandal as well as U.S. lawmakers' refusal to heed the administration's urgent call for replenishing the IMF's resources, dried up by a series of multibillion-dollar rescue programs for Asia and Russia.

Peter Kenen, an international economist at Princeton University. "We're in the odd situation of asking for international cooperation while we're not even able to sign a check for the IMF."

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:24 - ID#373284)
Snowball, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:27 - ID#284255)
Have a look here. Still under construction.
You'll find much of what you're looking for.
Look under Alt Energy



Couldn't resist this one ( :- ) ) )
And then the reason we got into this crisis in the first place because
of the Pompous attitude of the West which thinks that only they have
created anything that's worthwhile upon which the stock market is a
symbolic representation of pure materialism to the detriment of our
brothers and sisters in 3rd world countries such as Uganda and Timbuktu.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:30 - ID#275194)
6pak; I coppied this from your post. READ, oh shit it's worse than we ever thought!!!

"There is a general truth that the magnitude of the deterioration in the external environment is much greater than had been
previously anticipated," a U.S. administration official told reporters later in the day.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:31 - ID#373284)
Snowball, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and the fin that shares has a dynamite page...

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:35 - ID#119358)
@what's my line? name da' author.
Me & Eddie were doin some serious partying last night ( Eddie was
here ) ---did I post somethin stoopid er somethin???....I can't help
it ( I'm sick,eh ) but Hepcat cracks MOI
up....I know he's perverted but I just can't help it!!---I certainly
find his posts more 'entertaining' than some @ kitCON that sound like
( bleep ) broken records...Just sittin here gulpin coffee and tryin to get
my life ( ? ) back in order ( lost cause,eh! ) startin ta
freak ( again,huh ) as my ISP contract ends on 4/30---ditto my satellite
TV ( no CNBC ) ---withdrawel city comin up....Hows things by you?---Ya got
that studio rock-K & rollin??....

who dat?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:38 - ID#290232)
I'm a COBOL programmer. Until last week, the company I worked for thought it was making good progress on the Y2K problem.

One of the reasons we thought we were in pretty good shape is because
many of the company databases are DB2. When you define a field as a
date on a DB2 database, the database format is CCYY-MM-DD. Since DB2 will not allow an invalid date to be stored on the database, we were
pretty sure our databases were in pretty good shape. Wrong!

Most of the "files" on our DB2 databases contain a begin date and
an end date. These dates are used to determine when a record
is "effective". Many if not most of the database calls look for the record
that is "effective" on the current date, some date of service, etc.

When we tried processing data with dates after 1999-12-31 guess what?
Everything ran fine but we didn't get any hits on the database. We tracked the problem down to the following. Back the the late 80's and
early 90's the data loaded to the DB2 databases were converted
from older databases ( VSAM, IMS, etc ) that did not contain
"end dates". So someone plugged them with a hardcoded value
of '1999-12-31'. Guess they were afraid that plugging them with
something like '3000-01-01' might cause problems.

Now we faced with a massive problem. We have millions of records
on thousands of files that must be corrected. To make the problem
even worse, these records are mixed in millions of records that have been entered since the initial load. Many of these these "new" records
contain valid end dates of '1999-12-31'. God help us. We are doomed.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:45 - ID#373284)
Snowball, Namaste' one more...fin that shares...Namaste' may not have this?!?!?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:45 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Silverbear -- Any way to run the database through a program that will take that particular field and change it to something a bit more 'desirable'? You certainly won't get it done by hand!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:50 - ID#335190)
Kapex @ 21:30
Trust and Leadership eh!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:51 - ID#29048)
Would that be TED? Is his house built yet?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:53 - ID#254321)
Changing DB2 End Date
Silverbear: I haven't done much programming since my IBM 360 days in the 70's. How about this? Why not search your files in direct access format for the end date: 12/31/99, and insert whatever is needed to update each of your files? Peter Norton has programs that do that, thought they would need to be automated for a specific task. Even if the files are random access rather than 'flat file', it should not take a programmer that long to make the changes. Of course, you would need to know all the rules of DB2 file structure, as you would be bypassing normal programming access and read/write directly to the files. It would be alot of work initially, but I would think automating the process would not be that hard. After you are done, you could license the programs to others with similar problems.

Alternatively, you could just output the data to a new set of files, change the relevant dates while in this new format ( find and replace easier to automate ) , and then convert the data back to the database of your choice. Just a matter of number crunching with 'off the shelf' software.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 21:58 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JTF -- I like the 'alternative' you pose. Quite straight forward. In any case, He'll want to do ALL of the changes to a full copy of the DB one way or the other!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:02 - ID#119358)
@SpeedO...yes sirree bob that be teddO!!!
Poster Emeritus SupremeO NumerO UnO...exiled many times.... ( unjustly compared to Clitton ) calls still don't connect....I've tried various times...but he said Nov. last time we spoke. salud!!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:03 - ID#222128)

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:03 - ID#335190)
Control Central @ Trust & Leadership Russian Style
September 14, 1998

New Russian premier plots response to economic crisis

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- While pledging to continue economic reforms, new Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov said Monday he would try to make them easier on impoverished Russians by restoring the social safety net and paying overdue wages.

"It's quite obvious that their course is aimed at destabilizing the country's finances and dismantling elements of a free-market economy," former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar said on Echo Moscow radio.

The IMF director in charge of Russia, John Odling Smee, was due in Moscow on Tuesday.

But IMF chief Michel Camdessus insisted in an interview published in the French financial daily Les Echos on Monday that there would be no new financial help for Russia until market reforms are enacted.

The IMF put together a $22.6 billion US rescue package for Russia in July but cut the first tranche and warned last week that a second infusion of $4.3 billion is likely to be delayed.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:06 - ID#45173)
kapex: good post of the bull soft-sell. A tender dissection thereof...
Pervasive Market Gloom May Be A Buy Signal

September 13, 1998 7:29 AM EDT

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street has gone through some tough times but some experts say the
best time to buy stocks is when things seem to be as bad as they can get.

...."some experts"? Who might "they" be? What "their" motivations? perchance, the same as yours, Pierre?

Sure, the global economic malaise that ravaged the market over the last seven weeks is ongoing. But
what's encouraging is that the contagion may not get worse and spread to other countries.

....Maybe it won't. Maybe what we have seen so far is but the most fragile whisp of smoke ebbing from a pinhone in a film of lies that covers a burning core.

Some investors, who use early warning signals or contrarian indications, are getting ready for the
next big move up.

...."Some investors"? Who might they be? The writer does not even bother with the pretense of identifying a source. He expresses his personal opinion sheepishly under a cloak of the unknowable other. But we know who "he" is and who pays "his" salary.

They see a break in the clouds, expecting a recovery next year in the battered Asian countries, which
might fuel the next great bull market.

....In the best of all possible worlds, Asia recovers slowly enough that Asian flight capital drips slowly from the leaking US asset bubble back into Asia. Their bear market is our bull market. In the nearly worst case, Asia recovers quickly and the US dollar bubble implodes. But no such luck, neither shall happen. Japan completes is final debt cycle implosion, taking Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the USA along down the long, dark debt liquidation highway.

In the United States, the economy is still in great shape with inflation practically nonexistent. The
prospect of a drop in interest rates before the end of the year makes stocks more appealing, the
experts say.

....Ah, the experts. Of late unsure whether we have low inflation or low deflation. Which is it? Think quick! Make the wrong move and you're paddling bare handed up a waterfall in a kiddie pool.

``The news needs to stay bad to set the stage for what we expect to drive the next super-cycle bull
market,'' said Don Hays, chief investment strategist strategist for Wheat First Union.

....Oooo! Such a brilliant contrarian insight! The market needs to stay bad to get really good! Bravo! You won't be dissapointed, and I trust your "super-cycle" period is ten or twenty years.

He said, for instance, one of the most reliable bull market signals occurs when all the economic
numbers show a recession has started, not when the data show the recession is over.

....I'm speechless.

Right now, most investors are singing the Dow Jones blues, and bullishness is not rampant on Wall

....But why?

Investors are worried about lagging corporate earnings and the possibility that President Clinton may
face impeachment proceedings over the White House sex scandal.

....Oh, I see. Thanks. I didn't know that.

Analysts said investors should look for clues that suggest the market might be set for a rebound.

....I am looking. But I don't see any. Where?

Another reliable bull market alert is the stock trading activity of corporate insiders.

....Oh, I knew you were going to show me! A reliable bear market alert is stock selling by corporate insiders.

They are the people that have access to inside information -- senior officials such as directors and
chief executive officers -- who draw much of their compensations from stock options.

....So they know a lot more than I do. My experience is that their perspective is colored by a deaper interest than a stockholder's, such as the need to show loyalty to the BOD and employees in times of distress. Been there. DOne that. Got the t-shirt. No, I take this as a very troubling sign.

The officials tend to have a good idea about their companies' future earnings prospects and
professional traders shadow the corporate leaders on the belief that where there's smoke, there's fire.

....No they don't.

Frank Ponticello, senior analyst for Prudential Securities, said there has been a jump in insider's
buying of stocks recently.

The insider buying over the past month soared to an unusually high 61 percent. Normally, the
consensus insider buying ranges between 30 percent and 45 percent.

....Very bad.

The insiders have been known to scoop up stocks at the right time, having bought at a feverish pace
after the 1987 market crash, the 1990 panic sell-off and in late 1994 and early 1995 when the market
embarked on its strongest bull run ever.

....Oh, my.

``The current buying shows bullish confidence by the insiders,'' said Ponticello. ``The buying has
mostly been in secondary stocks, which are in a bear market, and it would appear to be bottom

....Let's check back with you in a week, Pierre, on your insider buying sources. Why do I doubt we'll get a report on the consensus selling?

Ponticello said that while the insiders' buying may be a signal that the market may have bottomed
out, he cautioned that some insiders have been wrong in the past.

....Cover that butt, Pierre! If anyone read this far into your patter, they are likely to weigh this caution at 1/10 the mass of the rest of the piece.

``It may not necessarily mean that they are right in the timing or their pricing point,'' he said.
``We've seen insiders buy natural gas and oil drillers six or seven months ago, and the stocks are
still down 30 percent.''

....Nice "proof statement." Lends credibility to information that one might otherwise suspect had been fabricated.

Another contrarian indication says articles in major national publications may signal the time of a
market turnaround.

....This I agree with, but only when they are not defending the interests of the securities industry.

According to the theory, when non-financial publications issue bearish articles it may be time to buy
stocks, while bullish coverage could be a bearish signal.

....True, but at the end of the longest bull market in history?

The reason is that the publications tend to pick up on Wall Street situations only after they have been

Often, by the time the editors catch on to a market event, Wall Streeters tend to view it as confirming
the maturity of the extreme market move rather than announcing that it is ongoing or beginning.

Coincidentally, the Sept. 14 issue of Time magazine has a cover story, entitled ``The Bears of
Summer.'' It asks the question: ``Is the boom over?''

....A good indicator but on in the absence of other evidence. There is no attempt to show causality.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:06 - ID#240288)
The Jo Anne Effect

This is a hot topic in a Y2K forum, at which I monitor, and sometimes post. The Jo Anne Effect is a term coined by Cory Hamasaki, one of the big names in Y2K inner circles. He is the computer geek's computer geek. This problem was described by a poster there by the name of Jo Anne, who is an accountant, not a computer geek. As best I understand the concept, when a computer program that is not Y2K compliant, has to account for fiscal years 99 and 00, it introduces errors into an accounting system. These errors, within each database, may go undiscovered until they interact with other databases. When a "critical mass" of errors occur, the system crashes. There are 108 days left, according to Hamasaki, until the Jo Anne Effect arrives. The question is, how disruptive will this be?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:12 - ID#254321)
Section 595(c) threshold
tolerant1: Thanks for that great url summarizing WJC's potiential impeachable offenses. Makes Richard Millhouse Nixon look like a pussycat!

He only tried to cover up a single illegal wiretap breakin.

All: Anyone of you legal types know what the 'Section 595 ( c ) threshold' is all about? That is apparently what K Starr is using to decide whether any of his ongoing investigations are worthy of reporting. K Starr has also stated that he thought he should deliver part of his investigation ( the Monica stuff ) first, as he thought it was unwise to wait until all investigations were complete. Very clever, as now WJC's credibility is now gone. KS must be having a field day -- evidencewise -- as few people are still worried about threats of personal injury, character assassination, etc.

Does anyone know just how long K Starr has before he must wind up his investigations?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:15 - ID#335190)
Control Central @ Trust & Leadership Mexican Style
September 14, 1998

Mexico parties have controversial bank bailout deal

MEXICO CITY ( Reuters ) - Mexico's political parties reached a deal with the government Monday on an impasse over a $60 billion-dollar bank bailout, but still had some way to go before agreeing how to turn the rescue bill into public debt.

The bill soon became one of the testiest issues of Zedillo's presidency, amid opposition criticism that it would make tax-payers pay for the crimes of crooked bankers or for the errors of billionaire businessmen.

In the pact, all sides agreed to form a multi-party commission to "analyze ... the constitutionality and legality of Fobaproa operations," to "search for the most equitable distribution of the costs," and to try and cut the final cost of the banking bailout to a minimum.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:18 - ID#237299)
Well, if you want another suggestion from an armchair programmer...

You said the conversion from the older code took place in the 80's
and 90's. Any record with a created-date after the last conversion *and* has the 12-31-99 end-field is valid; any record created during the conversion years is a questionable end-date, and any record created prior to the conversion is, ( or was ) hard coded for the end-date, and I assume the original end-date is lost forever- or not meaningful.

At least that would pre sort the ones which need to be examined for clues as to the valid end-date.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:25 - ID#254321)
More on Impeachment vs censure
All: Apparently WJC's polls are improving again. I find it hard to believe that this will last. He has lost the support of the popular press, as far as I can tell. He has lost his political 'virginity' which he can never regain -- irregardless of how 'popular' he is, few Democratic candidates will want his campaign support.

One thing I still do not understand is why the Dems want censure, and not impeachment. Don't they realize that the longer WJC stays in office, the stronger the Republicans get? WJC's problems are like a gift from Heaven for the Republicans. Why should they want to impeach him?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:29 - ID#218221)
Here is day 3 of the AOL poll. Notice over 56% favor impeach or resignation.
Only 28% say let him serve. And even AOL poll is shown in a bar chart that looks like most favor him serving his term. Check it out.

they represent the opinions of AOL members.
Should President Clinton: Be impeached?




Be censured?








Be allowed to serve his term?




Total votes:


Given the circumstances, do you think the President can do his job? Yes








Total votes:


Are you: Male








Total votes:


Are you: a Democrat




a Republican




Not affiliated with a major party




Total votes:


(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:33 - ID#45173)
Tonight's history lesson
The Finger

Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous weapon was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as "plucking the yew" ( or "pluck yew" ) .

Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, "See, we can still pluck yew! PLUCK YEW!"

Over the years some 'folk etymologies' have grown up around this symbolic
gesture. Since 'pluck yew' is rather difficult to say ( like "pleasant mother pheasant plucker", which is who you had to go to for the feathers used on the arrows for the longbow ) , the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodental fricative 'F', and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute are mistakenly thought to have something to do with an intimate encounter.

It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows that the symbolic gesture is known as "giving the bird".
I do not vouch for the authenticity of this plausible yet suspect account from a friend.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:36 - ID#218221)
True public opinion?
AOL Members Tracking Poll
Below are the numbers for day 3 of our unscientific, AOL members tracking poll. Tell Congress what you think by voting on the two polls currently running.
1. Poll: What Should Happen Next?
2. Poll: Will President Clinton Resign?

Results: Sunday, Sept. 13, 1998

Should President Clinton:
Be impeached? 32,086 26.5%
Be censured? 7,003 5.8%
Resign? 37,729 31.1%
Be allowed to serve his term? 44,359 36.6%
Total votes: 121,177

Given the circumstances, do you think the President can do his job?
Yes 51,934 42.9%
No 69,188 57.1%
Total votes: 121,122

Are you:
Male 65,315 54.0%
Female 55,529 46.0%
Total votes: 120,844

Are you:
a Democrat 33,357 27.7%
a Republican 38,995 32.4%
No party affiliation 48,072 39.9%
Total votes: 120,424

Day three shows consistent results with the first two days: nearly 40 percent of users think President Clinton should serve out his term. Slightly more users on Sunday -- 27 percent, compared to 24 percent on Saturday -- said the President should be impeached. Those who called for resignation and censure were consistent through the weekend: 31 percent of you opted for resignation and 6 percent voted for censure. Demographically, gender and party affiliation breakdown remain consistent.

How the Poll Works
Each day at about 9:30 a.m. we tabulate the results and reset the poll to track how your opinions change over time. At 9:30 a.m. the following day, we begin the process again. If you missed the opportunity to vote on today's two polls above, here they are again:

1. Poll: What Should Happen Next?
2. Poll: Will President Clinton Resign?

To find an enormous index of polls connected to the myriad House, Senate and Gubernatorial elections across the country, check Poll Track. It can be found on National Journal's Cloakroom.

As always, make your own words heard in the NewsTalk Message Boards

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:42 - ID#284255)
I don't know whether you frequent the newsgroup
But that problem could be a good one to throw their way.

The geeks over there are always chatting about code as well as TEOTWAWKI

A good bunch of souls like the many fine Kitcoites on this thread.
Rambunctious and rowdy.
Almost downright homely.

Here's their website - resplice the url.

Light hearted humour
Eating Ants and Whales

Ordinary School Boys

(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:42 - ID#45173)
Hunter Thomson says, "Cut off the body...
...and the head dies."

But not right away.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:46 - ID#401460)
Misc. Quotes
Monday September 14, 8:13 pm Eastern Time

Rubin says imperative that Japan institute reform

``It is imperative that Japan takes the steps it needs in terms of fiscal policy,'' Rubin
said in a speech to bankers and businessmen in Charlotte, N.C.

``An absolute imperative right now is that Congress complete the process of funding the IMF,'' he said. ``Every day that Congress does not address funding of the IMF is another day that we are at risk.''

``It seems to me one of the key risks to our economy right now is that we allow the prosperity that we are currently experiencing to cause us to become complacent,'' he said.

``We are fully prepared to do all that is needed,'' he said.

Monday September 14, 7:52 pm Eastern Time

INSIGHT -- Dollar's probe higher may signal new gain

``Similar to dollar/yen, dollar/mark has tested key support and it has held, and while there may be another test to the downside, I think the dollar is headed higher now,'' said Mark Roberts, analyst at I.D.E.A.

Monday September 14, 7:29 pm Eastern Time

Fed cannot ignore global events-Atlanta Fed Guynn

``The mandate of the FOMC ( Federal Open Market Committee ) is chiefly domestic. We are charged with delivering the best economic conditions we can,'' Guynn told a group of economists, the Money Marketeers of New York University.

``But the policy environment in which we attempt to achieve this mandate is global,'' Guynn stressed in a speech on ``Policymaking in the Global Environment.''

``Globalization also means that, in some circumstances, a domestic result -- one intended to benefit the United States principally -- might be most effectively obtained by responding directly to developments in international markets,'' Guynn added.

``ultimately serves our domestic policy objectives.'' ``allowing, even encouraging countries to escape the consequences of their own bad choices -- as exacerbating moral hazard.''

Guynn added U.S. policymakers' concern about international developments should not be seen as ``allowing, even encouraging countries to escape the consequences of their own bad choices -- as exacerbating moral hazard.''

``Let me be clear about this. An initiative by U.S. policymakers in international markets should not be a matter of indemnifying the lenders,'' Guynn added.

``That would represent a contradiction of our mandate and would have awful economic and moral hazard repercussions. Nor is it a matter of undoing the consequences of another country's bad policy choices,'' Guynn also said.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan hinted the Fed's tightening bias was removed at the August FOMC meeting. The tightening bias had been introduced in March.

``An international action by U.S. economic policymakers can serve our interests only to the extent that it contains or reallocates economic losses away from the United States,'' Guynn pointed out.

``We must better understand how global economic developments affect the U.S. economy... We must better understand how our policies affect the rest of the world,'' Guynn said.

``Globalization complicates the policy environment,'' Guynn said. ``In the global economy, our policies are more influential than ever, although the equation through which we calculate them is more complex. Understanding the equation is the challenge.''


Steve in TO
(Mon Sep 14 1998 22:58 - ID#287337)
EJ - Heh, heh, your take on the . . .
WSJ article reminds me of something I read years ago. Malcolm Muggeridge in his biography said that in his earliest years as a young journalist at hgis first newspaper he was put to work for the editor of the financial section.

He hadn't studied economics or commerce- he'd never even invested, but there he was writing about financial topics. He said every evening one of his jobs was to create a 'cause-and-effect' explaination for whatever the market had done that day. If the market went down he might say: 'the market plunged on news that . . . " or if the market went up he might write: 'the Prime Minister's speech lifted markets on . . .'

He said he didn't have any idea whether these things really explained what the market had done the day before, it might have been something else- or even something entirely random, but the paper had to indulge people's desire to have a clear, simple explaination for what had happened.

When people feel that they understand something they increase their comfort level- there are very few people who thrive on uncertainty.

- Steve

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:04 - ID#287114)

History shows a change in government normally occures during periods of hard times and ressesion.
That is why slick is so popular, low unimploment, everyone is spending, what else do you want.
And most of all, a lot of people with not too much , think they are rich.
Hey... few bucks down get you Cadilac.
Dig out the world map, look at whats going on finacialy.
U.S.A. a protected island..........No Way.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:04 - ID#290213)
@Sharfin, 1 who is Tolerant & par
Thanks for the input much appreciated. Sharfin, I have visited your site most excellent. However, I wasn't able to open any of the sites. Could be me, as my system has been locking up and is soooooo slooooow tonight. Will try again later. Am continuing my Y2K education and trying to make rational and sensible precautionary plans. I don't anticipate we'll revisit the "stone age", but I think Y2K will be much more serious than people expect. Anyone that ignores the possibilities is an idiot IMHO.
Careful planning is cheap insurance. Especially since most of the precautions one should have on hand anyway. If nothing happens, well use the stuff for a "I SURVIVED Y2K" party.

Thanks to all.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:05 - ID#240288)
EJ 22:06, 22:33

22:06--Good job of dissecting that article and nailing the flaws! 22:33--Until I hear a better version, that history of the origin of the Middle Finger Salute, will be the accepted one at Kitco!

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:10 - ID#433143)
Ohhh NOOOO!! This is terrible damn FBI getting control of the net, READ THIS.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:13 - ID#317193)
Disney...head & shoulder observation...subtle but direct...
Wonder who else can think.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:27 - ID#45173)
@Auric & Steve: I'd guess the writer of that piece at 25 or less
A reformed journalist myself... it takes one to know one.

Are you guys as psyched about the rest of this week as I am? Wooohoo!


(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:36 - ID#173274)
@the scene
G-Nutz -- Now you're gettin' paranoid! That's what you get for payin' attention.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:37 - ID#290172)
At a loss for words...quite a timeline

Agreement Establishing an Association between the European Economic Community and Turkey


of the one part, and

The Contracting Parties declare that:

1. The value of the unit of account used to express the amount mentioned in Article 2 of the Financial Protocol shall be 0-88867088
grammes of fine gold.

2. The parity of the currency of a Member State of the Community in relation to the unit of account defined in paragraph 1 shall be the relation between the weight of fine gold contained in the unit of account and the weigh of fine gold corresponding to the par value of that currency communicated to the International Monetary Fund. If no par value has been communicated, or if exchange rates differing from the par value by a margin exceeding that authorized by the International Monetary Fund are applied to current shall be calculated on the basis of the exchange rate for a currency Member State to current payments, on the day of the calculation, and on the basis of the par value communicated to the International Monetary Fund for that convertible currency.

3. The unit of account defined in paragraph 1 shall remain unchanged throughout the period in which the Financial Protocol is in force.If, however, before the end of that period a uniform proportionate change in the par values of all currencies in relation to gold should be decided by the International monetary Fund under Article 4, Section 7, of its Articles of Agreement, the weight of fine gold contained in the unit of account shall alter in inverse ratio to that change.

If one or more Member States do not apply the decision taken by the International Monetary Fund as referred to in the preceding subparagraph, the weight of fine gold contained in the unit of account shall alter in inverse ratio to the change decided by the International Monetary Fund. The Council of the European Communities shall, however, examine the situation thus created and shall take the necessary measures, acting by a qualified majority, after receiving a proposal from the Commission and the opinion of the
Monetary Committee.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:41 - ID#373403)
$18 billion
What in the world is going on here?! Everyone knows, Rubin included, that $18 billion is the proverbial stone being thrown into a raging river in the hopes of changing it's course. There is not one single country where $18 billion would solve their problems.

On the other hand, $18 billion is a statistical anomaly in the U.S. economy. Why hold up the funding in such a partisan way which will lead to a credibility problem for American global leadership? Republicans dont gain by the United States being remembered as isolationist and not feeling the pain of failing economies. Even if $18 billion will solve nothing, not appearing to be trying will damage our ability to get international political support for things like Dessert Storm in the future.

Obviously there is more to this.

As an aside, these "loans" do not appear to be getting paid back. If they were working and viable then maybe the IMF would have the money they needed.

As to the president speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, I thought this was an imaginary organization promoted by black helicopter fearing militia types. Is there really a Trilatteral commission and the Bilderbergs also? Who are these organizations?

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:45 - ID#45173)
Well, the whole world is back on track
chugging along smoothly. Brazil is up, Russia, Europe, Asia, the USA.

The hog is free of the tunnel at last ( recall he got stuck back in April ) .

Yep. I'll sleep like a baby tonight knowing all's well and back to normal.


Whuh? Whuzzat? I thought I heard something. ( Snorting sound. ) Humph. Guess is was nothing. Back to sleep. Zzzzzzzzzz.


(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:48 - ID#335190)
USofA Farmers want billions (Corporate Welfare) @ Industrial Farmers EH!

By Pat Soberanis

"Our case if very good and well documented. We have spent the last six years trying to get FmHA to correct its gross and costly mistakes. Most of these mistakes were made by [the former county supervisor]. We believe he was directed by [the state Farmer Programs chief]. They admit to the errors, but still cover up.

"We are unusual borrowers. We have never stopped farming, and our ranch is producing. . . . I do not know whether we are one of the lucky ones or not. At least we haven't been forced to file bankruptcy. My husband and I still have a good marriage. We haven't gone crazy yet. We have lost faith in our government.

We do feel that every hardworking American is being shafted, and that the government is being run by Boss Hog ( absolutely no integrity, quick dollars, no thoughts about tomorrow ) . . . . It is not a farm problem, it is a people problem.

We are losing our hope and trading away our jobs and futures. I am afraid. I am not a sheep, and only believe the administration when their lips aren't moving." - Gail Lennon, FmHA borrower, California, 1991

The People Vs. Corporate Farming

by David Morris

March 28, 1995

On April 1st family farmers and their supporters will rally in the tiny city of Unionville, Missouri. Their goal? To educate America about the connection between pork chops, democracy, economic efficiency and the future of rural communities. Their story deserves to be heard.

Giant corporations have little respect for democracy. In the face of clear citizen opposition, but before the actual vote on the zoning measure, PSF purchased 3000 acres, gained permits from state agencies and begun construction.

After the ordinance passed PSF sued the town for $7.9 million, citing a 1993 Missouri law that requires communities to compensate property owners harmed by regulations. With a budget of $40,000, Lincoln Township must pay its lawyers from a fund intended to repair bridges.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:49 - ID#284255)
That's only the beginning of Bill's aspirations.

Microsoft Conducts Nuclear Tests

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:50 - ID#287312)
The market rally friday and today was the most insane thing i've ever witnessed
World political, economic, and social problems are neck deep and all getting worse by the day.

(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:52 - ID#219363)
The man ain't gonna do nothing to interest rates.

People always project their desires on Greenspan and the FED when something happens in the markets for one, and only one reason. They project their desires on the FED because the FED is basically the only variable in the economy that is solely at the descretion of a person. People can't control what Russia is doing, people can't control the price of oil, or gold, but they damn sure think they can make recommendations to the FED Chairman. Greenspan's job is the money supply, and he does his job very well, despite what his detractors might say.

Right now, the US economy, the world even, doesn't need a strong or weak dollar, it doesn't need easy debt, it doesn't need any change at all. What the US economy and the world needs is a STABLE dollar, some store of value that they can depend on, something they can benchmark against, something that they can trade with. The world is going to slow down whether Greenspan lowers rates or raises them, and I honestly don't think he'll do either, he's just going to sit there and let the markets do what the markets are going to do, and he's going to protect the sovereign currency.

Greenspan, to me, is the perfect person to be FED Chairman because he doesn't yield to pressure from anyone ( including Congress ) , doesn't get all bent out of shape if the markets do something stupid, and puts the money supply ( the core of his business ) ahead of everything else. Greenspan isn't charged with revitalizing the world economy, and he couldn't do anything about it if he were in charge - he is in charge of the US dollar, and he does a good job of making sure at least one variable in the shifting sands is stable, like a rock. His reports are always dry, boring, banking related, and they are never wildly speculative. You know what he's going to say before he ever says it, you just have to get a banking book and read. Best of all, he never actually does anything he's told, he just sits there and does the job of managing the buck like he's supposed to. He's the polar opposite of a celebrity hedge fund manager. People listen to him because they can count on what he says.

Why add volatility to an already volatile situation. Resist the urge to tinker. By standing on the side-lines, Greenspan is in essense raising rates, which is exactly what needs to be done to slow this puppy down a little bit. That's good for the long term. It's silly to think the US economy is going to grow at past rates while over-seas markets burn.

Watching Greenspan and the FED is like watching grass grow, as it should be. If the FED were to change rates, it would scare me, and I think it would scare people all around the world, because it would be a FED commentary on what's going on in world markets, a reaction, and it would add volatility. Even the hint sent Japan spinning.

I don't think Greenspan will do anything, I think you can bank on it.

Who Cares?
(Mon Sep 14 1998 23:54 - ID#242328)
You can't be serious

The CFR, Trilateral Commission, and Bilderbergs ( not to mention
black helicopters ) really exist.

Whether they are evil incarnate is subject to opinion.

But, there's no doubt these organizations *exist*.

I have to wonder how long you've been on the Net.

It's just amazing what the media don't speak of, isn't it?