Regards.....Dabchick
DOW30
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-15%20DJ-30%20-%20daily.gif
SPX
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-15%20SP500%20-%20daily.gif
NASD100
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-15%20NASD%20100%20-%20daily.gif
XAU
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-15%20XAU%20-%20daily.gif
XOI
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-15%20XOI%20-%20daily.gif
I think the trigger 'sell' points on his 2 gold mining stocks are HM at 10 7/8 and ASA at 17 1/2 ( I think I reversed fractions on these the other day ) . If those prices are broken on good volume, looks like Jeil's projected trends will be validated.
Looks like the 19th is a big ( turning point ) day for the XAU on this chart. Since that's a Saturday, perhaps the action comes Friday.
And this chart shows an important turning point on the DOW tomorrow:
Click on: Global Market View ( left menu )
Click on: World Metals Market Watch
http://the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
Visit this site; there's a world of information there.
The link works for me, but here it is again:
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeDOW.htm
The source site is:
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm
Use the menu at the top of the comment page. BTW, his Elliott Wave count is bullish for the DOW.
http://personal321.fidelity.com/gen/mflfid/3/316184100.html
Click on Daily Price ( NAV ) in the top-left menu.
Maybe we can record his answers to the press and play them backwards so we can find out what he really said. Heh...heh...heh.
No wonder Janet Reno is dragging her feet -- her boss could be in deep trouble just with Campaigngate.
Sorry -- I lost the url -- will look for it later.
My question to the banker and financial types on Kitco is whether AG would willingly let the price of gold rise. My intuitive guess is that first and foremost what he wants to do is expand the money supply. If the price of gold rises as a consquence, he may accept that. But he would very likely concolude that simply biddding up the price of gold would be counterproductive. Don't want to cause a gold market bull that might panic the fiat currency addicts. The last thing you want to do with a fiat currency is put the spotlight on that hated commodity, gold.
Why would AG expand the money supply? Isn't he worried about risking another 1929 fiasco fueled by a loose FED policy? I think he is guessing that the Clinton crisis will hold the markets down enough to prevent the bubble crash. He is also hoping ( I think ) that foreign investment will taper off as US interest rates drop ( slightly ) .
All depends on South America and Japan doesn't it? We are playing Russian roulette with our world fiat currency system. Will the US get hit this time or won't they? My personal opinion is that our markets/economy would have to survive for nearly 2 years before we are free and clear deflationwise -- until 2010-2015 when inflation is sure to return in a big way.
Tall order.
We can forget squeaking by if AG slips up, or for sure if he resigns. Even a master like AG could make a mistake when the stakes are
as high as they are right now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000271261842766&rtmo=apRRapbL
&atmo=rrrrrrNq&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/98/9/16/wcli16.html&pg=/et/98/9/16/
wcli16.html
Please splice together before reading.
If I remember correctly, just before the great depression, industrial production peaked rather dramatically. Then -- low and behold -- there were all those goods chasing too few customers.
I hate to be this bearish, but we may be seeing in front of our eyes the highest US industrial production for a few years to come.
Lets say we go into a recession, not a depression. How long before AG et al desperately loosen up the money supply, and gold starts to soar? One year or so?
What happened to alternative/renewable enery? Solar energy technology has virtually been ignored by our Green VP. Also -- we have 'Zero Point' energy, and the Pons and Fleischman phenomenon, confirmed by MIT and others. P and F just made the horrendous mistake of jumping the gun and calling it 'Cold Fusion' in that Nature article.
The 'Zero Point' energy stuff probably will take 20 years to evolve, unless we have another energy crisis. Solar stuff and wind power technology is fairly well advanceds, and just needs to be dusted off. Don't worry, no matter what the oil industry will do well -- eventually.
My only conceptual problem is figuring out why a flood in US dollars is not making interest rates go up. My only conclusion is that all of those dollars flooding back to the US must be going into US treasuries, hence keeping interest rates down. Once investors tire of buying US treasuries, then interest rates will rise.
Does that sound reasonable? I am not used to thinking of US dollars and US securities as separate disctinct items, but we do have to think that way , don't we?
Martin Armstrong is correct that commodities dropped for a time early in the depression, along with gold. It was not until 1932 or so that gold really started to shine. Those who speculated in gold ( equities ) before that time tended to lose, unless they were equally facile in down and up markets. He conveniently left out the part that gold was a good investment -- if bought at the bottom.
Martin Armstrong makes the point that before a depression, smart money will escape into long - term bonds. That may be what is happening right now. But one must be choosy, and buy only 'blue chips' -- securities that will survive the crisis.
However, I think his scenario is far too 'Rose-colored'. The baby boom itself cannot prevent a depression, it just makes it less likely. The baby boom by itself will not prevent inflation of the US dollar, or credit collapse. The imminent derivatives crisis is independent of the baby boom. Certainly if we weather the next two or three years, we will roar into 2010-2015, where our baby boom spending will peak. What if you apply the baby boom model to Canada, or Australia? They are not doing very well right now. Harry Dent's model is much better at explaining why Japan is in such big trouble. No baby boom buffer.
I think what Harry Dent did was somwhat justifiable in the sense that he sold his whole book based almost exclusively the 'baby boom' effect. I wish he had been a little more scientific, and a little less 'popular' in his style. I'll bet if you call him up, and ask him straight out whether a baby boom by itself can prevent a depression, he will readily admit that he oversimplified.
I suspect nonlinear analysis base on something akin to the semi -quantum mechanical wavelet analysis will be the way to go -- but this type of economic study is only on the drawing boards.
So -- chaos analysis -- the fibonacci series, etc -- wavelet analysis. But not in time to really be of value in studying our current crisis so nearly at hand.
and would appreciate thoughts on the possibility of
developing nations,such as in Africa & South America
nationalizing their gold mines & reserves should there
be any move to a gold standard such as Russia was
contemplating?
By the way, one of my old introductory physics books used the mousetrap analogy to demonstrate nuclear fission. Each exploding nucleus zapped two more nuclei ( slow neutrons ) until all the nuclei exploded. Chain reaction. In the case of banks the collapse will be less orderly as one big one could bring down many little ones.
Too bad we don't have a snapping mousetrap monitor for all of those banks.
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