Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:03 - ID#432130)
This weeks Market...
Is a Bear Trap! Got Gold?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:07 - ID#401460)

So you are saying Clinton wants to fund the IMF 18 Billion so that it can fund Soros for his investment losses in Russia. Just like he did in Mexico for Goldman Sachs and the other bankers.

I agree.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:11 - ID#284255)

Here's a copy of the original version from ZDNet.
My RTC *fails* this test

Here's another version from a different company. Which is very good.
My RTC *fails* this test

***And here's ZDNet's latest version.***
My RTC *passes* this test.

What's happened between the 2nd and 3rd tests?
Someone fix my RTC?
I doubt it.
I would presume that my RTC is a failure
Because I can check it on other systems and it comes up a failure.

So why would ZDNet change their software which was failing everyone's RTC?
To many people complaining that their RTC's are no good?

And then there are these articles?
Users are dodging noncompliant real-time clocks
Scope of Y2K crisis widens: Clock problem found
Prove It test shows most PCs unlikely to pass Y2K analysis

And then this one.
Tech Bytes: Federal Reserve puts a Y2K-muzzle on banks

Makes one wonder what's going on?
How much do we really know?
And how much we are fed?

How do they want to control the sheeple?
When they know the chaos just around the corner.
And how the sheeple will react.

Best to hold the panic off as long as possible.

I'm sure that they would have a PPT for the Y2k panic now.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:12 - ID#294232)
Dear Mr. Soros!
I personally hope that your time has come to feel even a fraction of the pain you have caused with your plight to grow even richer. One thing I understand about the wealthy is that they make money their god and the only way to truly hurt the rich is take away their money. Your plea for changes just confirms the fact that the World because of derivitives is in deep crisis and when the facts get out we will all get a chance to watch the paper burn. It is my opinion that the Dow is being manipulated by the US Government to create the image all is well when in fact the financial world is going to hell in a handbasket. Gold has been artificially capped below three hundred in order to assist you BASTAR## in conning the world into believing the fiat currency is healthy! Mr. Soros your time has come and I will get much delight in watching you sweat when the cards begin to fall!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:13 - ID#252127)
Gold don't need Soros, Soros needs gold, yours and gold hijacked from the free nations of the world

I love George, a bushel and a peck, a bushel and a peck with a rope around his your F@**ing ass I DO.
Wake up man, he's one of them.
Gold will go up, with or without him.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:15 - ID#373284)
oris, Namaste' a gulp and a puff and for you Sir...a crackling crunch of a pickle...uh huh...
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...What these children know of mother Russia.HmmmmmmmmmmmmmHmmmmmmmmmmin my veins flow countries.Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmyself I shall eat lessoffer my blanket to those Russians who are cold and hungry

Truly my friend I am cut from a different billetwithin the glow of a candle is mine smile

Uh huh

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:23 - ID#294232)
IMF Funds used to bail out US Banks!
The game is quite simple its called use debt to pay debt or in lamen terms we call it kiting. Soros is pushing for insurance and more IMF funds in order to protect his dirty little ass! Russia had the right idea they took the money then defaulted.... This PONZI GAME is about to end and when it does the world will go into shock...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:27 - ID#284255)
Terror in the sky
A jet carrying 282 people was forced to make an emergency return landing at Calgary International Airport when one of its engines exploded on takeoff.

Neither airport officials nor Martinair staff were immediately aware of the cause of the fire last night. Transport Canada may not investigate the incident because it was not considered an accident.

2 planes of late
3 space shuttles
2 satellites

Is there an increasing ammount of tecnological failures?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:44 - ID#284255)
An interesting perspective?
House panel gives government a 'D' for Year 2000 work

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Like a disapproving school teacher, a House panel gave a barely passing "D" grade to the federal government's overall efforts to fix the Year 2000 computer problem.
It predicted more than one-third of the most important computer systems won't be fixed in time, and it estimated the government will spend $6.3 billion on the problem. That's much higher than a $5.4 billion estimate the Office of Management and Budget made last week.

"This is not a grade you take home to your parents, and it is definitely not a grade to take back to the voters and taxpayers,"

Three agencies earned an "A": the Social Security Administration, the National Science Foundation and the Small Business Administration.
Interesting that the Small Business Administration receives an 'A'
When the small businesses of the US are lagging most.
Forgot to mention the Korean rocket failure last week.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:45 - ID#284255)
J Stack
Consensus right now is that this is a correction and Wall Street has already
seen the lows. But that's NOT the picture we're seeing.

There were substantially more stocks hitting new yearly lows today than a
week ago when the DJIA was at an identical level ( and this is after 3
consecutive days of rally ) .
Bottomline, we repeat from last night's special update, this has ALL the
characteristics of a bear market rally - including light volume and lagging
secondary stocks. With Friday being "triple-witching" options expiration,
we're likely heading for big volatility if not big trouble.

The Shadow Open Market Committee ( a group of conservative economists )
strongly urged the Fed NOT to lower interest rates until monetary growth
drops to 4%.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:51 - ID#350282)
I really hate to ask this ( my personality and all )
But, I've receved increased inquiries regarding Y2K.
What I would like is a list of non-alarmist, yet very substantiated site references that I can give to those whose curiosity has been piqued.
( too much information too soon causes a rejection of the premise outright )

Thank you in advance.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:54 - ID#206235)
U.S. / European economy's strong
Tuesday September 15, 8:35 pm Eastern Time

U.S., European economies remain strong-Camdessus

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 ( Reuters ) - The economies of Europe and North America remain sound and there are no inflationary pressures in the United States, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus told the European-American Business Council that promises from the Group of Seven industrialized countries to maintain the conditions for growth were ``a good signal for the world.''

A copy of his speech was released in Washington in advance.

Camdessus said a statement by G7 finance ministers on Monday and a separate speech by President Bill Clinton calling for cooperation to boost global growth were a recognition ``that the balance of risks has shifted from inflation to slowdown in demand.''

``We are at a moment when a credible pro-growth strategy is taking shape -- quite a good signal for the world indeed,'' he said.

Camdessus said the fundamentals of the European and North American industrial economies remained sound. ``The growth of the U.S. economy is continuing in 1998 without inflationary pressures,'' he said.

Camdessus also said Europe's economic recovery was gaining momentum and he expected the introduction of the euro currency to help this further.

The G7, in a statement released on Monday, said inflation was low and falling in many parts of the world. The seven countries -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States -- ``emphasized their commitment to preserve or create conditions for sustainable domestic growth and financial stability in their own economies,'' the group said.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:55 - ID#255226)
SnP, Oil
IDT, Old Gold - IDT the SnP looks to be making a top in the 1050 -1055 ( Dec ) area. 100 point up Dow moves with negative a/d readings can't continue. Any rallys above 1050 should be sold, but the market could push to slightly above 1060 ( 8300 dow ) . Once this rally runs out no later then mid next week I still think we're heading down to 900 or lower.

Old Gold - Short term oil is building a small triangle which should lead to a move to $16. To break the 2 year down trend on the weekly chart oil needs to close above 16.50.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:55 - ID#206235)
IMF head says Russia recovery will be tough
Tuesday September 15, 8:36 pm Eastern Time

Russia recovery will be difficult, Camdessus says

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 ( Reuters ) - Russia will find it hard to recover because confidence is low and due to problems including weak banks, a poor fiscal policy and ``crony capitalism'', the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

``Russia's path to recovery is likely to be quite difficult, since Russia needs to restore confidence severely weakened by its decision to unilaterally restructure its domestic debt obligations,'' Camdessus told the European-American Business Council.

A copy of his speech was released in Washington in advance.

Russia devalued the rouble currency and defaulted on some debts last month as a $22.6 billion international aid package fell apart. An IMF team arrived in Moscow on Tuesday to meet the new Russian government and discuss the possibility of restarting the lending program underpinning the rescue deal.

Camdessus said Russia's economic reform programs, agreed with the IMF to for the basis for a series of loans, had been ``ambitious and comprehensive, but implementation fell short.''

He made clear that future payments from the IMF would depend on Russia's ability to meet its promises on reform.

``If Russia, like Asia, can begin again to help itself and to do so convincingly, then we stand ready to help,'' he said.

The IMF has continually urged Russia to improve tax collection to meet its budget targets and it has also highlighted the problems of ``crony capitalism'' which enriches people in the government or with close ties to it.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:57 - ID#206235)
Latin America hasn't asked for IMF funds.... yet
Latam has not requested funds from IMF-Camdessus

NEW YORK, Sept 15 ( Reuters ) - International Monetary Fund Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on Tuesday the lending institution has not received any requests from Latin America countries for emergency funds to shore up ailing economies.

``There are no requests to my knowledge, but in this quickly changing world anything is possible,'' Camdessus told reporters before an address to the European-American Business Council.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:58 - ID#219363)
Bullish Signs
Just kidding. Check out this table, I was busy on the calculator again.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:59 - ID#206235) that INFLATION I smell downwind?...(Good for Gold..)
ANALYSIS-Joint G7 rate cut seen a distant prospect

By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON, Sept 15 ( Reuters ) - As the world's richest nations rushed to proclaim they were serious about saving the global economy from the abyss, doubts lingered over their ability to pull off the feat and present a unified front.

``This would be an excellent opportunity to show global leadership,'' said Catherine Mann, a former Federal Reserve economist who now is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think-tank.

``A concerted cut in interest rates would be beneficial. But the Group of Seven ( nations ) may have real problems coming up with the kind of concerted action that's important now.''

With the outlook for the global economy getting a little bit more gloomy almost by the day, calls on the exclusive G7 club to get its act together and jointly cut interest rates in the face of mounting turmoil have gained prominence.

Yet muted dissent between various G7 capitals and glaring differences not only in their domestic economic outlook but also their underlying economic philosophies have put a damper on such market hopes for a concerted monetary easing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in a key speech almost two weeks ago, appeared to open the door to a rate cut when he signaled the Fed's mounting concern over the potential effects of the global turmoil abroad on the U.S. economy.

U.S. President Bill Clinton jumped on the bandwagon on Monday, just before the G7 released a statement also making veiled references to the possibility of a rate cut.

But when German central bank head Hans Tietmeyer joined the fray on Tuesday, the prospect of a joint G7 move to quell the turmoil around them suddenly seemed more distant than ever.

``In Europe, no reason can be seen to relax monetary policy,'' he told a news conference in Frankfurt, adding that it would be a mistake to read Monday's G7 statement that talked of ``the importance of close cooperation'' as signaling a rate cut.

Germany has long maintained that monetary policy should be used only to keep domestic inflation down, and not to stimulate demand or prop up the world's financial system.

``To them, using monetary policy as a liquidity device is about as bad as it can get,'' said Mann. ``But if they continue to stand on the sidelines, they're effectively saying Europe is more important than the globe -- that's a pretty strong statement to make.''

Meanwhile Japan, the world's number-two economy, is still stuck in recession. U.S. officials and analysts alike say Tokyo has become part of the problem rather than any solution.

Clinton's call for a joint meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 as well as major emerging markets was meant as a sign that Washington, for its part, is intent on taking the lead in any joint effort to save the world economy.

``They're clearly trying to show the flag,'' said Robert Litan, a former administration official who now heads the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution.

But with his credibility damaged by a sex and perjury scandal at home, Clinton has a lot riding on the willingness of his G7 partners to join his initiative. Already, the domestic opposition is turning up the heat, asking for a fundamental re-examination of the G7's role in the world.

``The President's call for G7 discussions on trauma in the world economy is like treating a heart attack patient with a band-aid,'' said Connie Mack, a Republican Senator and vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, in a statement. ``We need wide-ranging and substantive meetings on the global economy.''

But even if the G7 should manage to put aside their differences, analysts said it was far from clear that a joint rate cut could achieve the desired effect of making U.S. and European assets relatively less attractive to investors, thus helping to convince them to keep at least some of their money in battered emerging markets.

The key for restoring stability in developing economies, and thus the world's financial markets, was for the governments of the economies most deeply affected by the crisis to implement overdue reforms, said Greg Mastel, an economist at the Washington-based Economic Strategy Institute.

``There are a lot of problems but it's not entirely clear that a rate cut can do a lot,'' he said. ``The key to this crisis lies in the hands of Russian, Japanese and other Asian leaders, and they may or may not exercise their power to solve it.''

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Sep 16 1998 00:59 - ID#427265)
BUGal (U.S. / European economy's strong)

Lets invent a new term......

"SPIN SPEAK"..... if they say it often enough, someone will believe it !

If only GOLD would hit US$320, the GOLD rush would be back on.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:04 - ID#206235)
Movie Review
Capitalism at it's finest. "Rounders" EXTREMELY realistic portrayal of the underworld of high and medium stakes private poker. The director and writer took great pains to be authentic..I know because I play a lot of poker at medium stakes.

Great performances too..and Siskel / Ebert gave it a thumbs up ( as if they know anything! )

yeah yeah, it's off topic but I just saw it, it's late, and I'm goin to bed! Night Kitco

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:09 - ID#284255)
Tell them to go to Gary Norths site and to not believe a thing they read ( :- ) ) )

I have many sites linked to this page.
More than enough to cover most aspects and sites
Some of the FAQ's on this page are excellent explanations.

Yardini's site is very broad based and authoritive


Greenstone Gold
(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:23 - ID#435212)
......and the Band played on.......

Well said Millhouse....

Musical chairs........ Your President Clinton appears to just trun the other cheek, as if nothing has happened on the personal level. Furthermore, he now appears to treat his duties in the same vein as his personal life.... the Band plays on, and when the music stops - will he have a chair ?!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:31 - ID#219363)
A/D line
I've noticed the same thing first hand - some of the stocks I'm paying very close attention to, even large stable companies, have actually been falling during these last two rallies, especially the one we're in right now. The numbers on the television with the little up arrow beside them don't mean a damn thing.

The bull helps us get what we want.

The bear helps us want what we get.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:33 - ID#284255)
Tell them to go to Gary Norths site and to not believe a thing they read ( :- ) ) )

I have many sites linked to this page.
More than enough to cover most aspects and sites
Some of the FAQ's on this page are excellent explanations.

Yardini's site is very broad based and authoritive


Greenstone Gold
(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:36 - ID#435212)
"SPIN SPEAK"...........

"The Australian economy is strong"......... a really good line during an election ?

During the last year, the AU$ has lost some 30% against the US$, and this is not even mentioned in the election process !

An general election on the 3 October 1998, and on the media it is not headline news, the Commonwealth Games is !!!

Spin, spin, spin..........."Lets stimulate the World economy......"

STRUTH, someone should explain the FACTS OF LIFE to the "Spin Doctors"........reality really is a wonderful thing !

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:36 - ID#252127)

This is not about a Presidential Sex Scandal, this about giving Cigars a bad name and by extension affecting our balance of trade.

for the Cuban Cigar Institute

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:37 - ID#242303)
Iran about to invade Afghanistan
The Iranian Revolutionary gaurds are massed on the border with Afghanistan ready to invade and fight the extremist Taliban.

The Iranians are backed by Russia, Turkey and India.

The Taliban have been supplied by Pakistan and the US ( Go figue! )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:46 - ID#284255)
Microsoft rules OK
In rather late- breaking news, it turns out that Win95, NT 3.51 and NT4 ( pre-sp4 ) are NOT Y2K compliant.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:47 - ID#344286)
Eddie's funny

To: +C. Lawrence Perkins ( 7439 )
From: +Ed Fishbaine
Tuesday, Sep 15 1998 5:25PM ET
Reply # of 7448

to all

Why the attack on Bill Clinton?

Look on the positive side: Who else do you know who can receive oral sex at the same
time he is conferring with a senator? This requires an ability to handle disparate events
simultaneously. With all the complexities and decision making required of a president
isn1t this act an indication of his extraordinary capacity at multitasking? It would be even
more convincing if simultaneously with these two
actions he was indulging another his favorite pastime, namely downing a dozen
doughnuts in 2 minutes.

Furthermore, considering the complexities in our legal system isn1t it testimony to his
mastery of the law that he can convert a lie into the truth. He had sex with Monica
without having sex with her. Consider not only the legal subtlety of this maneuver but its
audacity. By generalization do we not need a leader who is audacious and who has the
capacity in negotiations with foreign leaders to finesse language in such a masterful
manner that he will gain strategic advantage.

Is he not a leader with great self regard? Would we want a leader who places himself
second to the people he is assigned to lead? Is this not a contradiction of what it means
to be a leader? We want a leader who places himself first, above all others, and then we
have a powerful man who we can follow. Powerful men respect and esteem themselves.
Do we want a leader to be subject to the same laws as everyman? Then what sort of
respect can we grant him when he is no better than the rest of us? Do we want a society
of laws or a society of man?

Do not underestimate the value of this man as our leader. We need him. We may even
need to establish a new requirement in our efforts to elect future great presidents. They
must demonstrate ability to have hundreds of affairs and still have the total loyalty of
their wives. Since Clinton claims to have had hundreds of affairs before the age of 40;
perhaps we ought not set the rod this high. Could you or I accomplish this feat or would we
be divorced by our wives not at the 100th episode but at the first? What talent this man

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Sep 16 1998 01:51 - ID#435212)
Cueball (Eddie's funny).........

Indeed, President Clinton has surely shown that he "can juggle his balls",
or indeed have someone else do that for him !!!!

A man of action, he should be in a Circus...... or is in in one already ?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:00 - ID#31876)
At This Time of the Morning, an Editorial Cartoon Seems Like a Good Idea

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:30 - ID#153110)
@Soros's Speech & What's Happening
1. Unless I'm mistaken, Soros's implementation of a global credit insurance agency would duplicate or displace functions now performed by BIS.

2. Unless I am mistaken, hedge funds would have no reason for being in a financial world in which there were no longer any floating currencies.

Sometimes words conceal reality. The reality is that if a nation devalues its currency by 50%, it has defaulted on its obligations by 50% even though the word default is never used in that connection.

There will be no hyperinflation in the US. For this reason. The creditors control the Congress. In a hyperinflation all financial instruments are destroyed. In a deflation, selected financial instruments are destroyed. This prediction of no hyperinflation in the US would be cancelled should a debtor's party gain control of the Congress and the White House. If that happened "money" would be printed for debtor relief just as it was in Rhode Island when the debtors controlled that state legislature.

When devaluation is viewed in its true light of partial default on debt, the true size of the deflation tsunami is more easily grasped. And the true nature of the counterparty risk in the floating currency system is more certainly understood. Outright default is the tip of the iceberg. When you see more of it bear in mind that the berg beneath has grown proportionately larger.

In the coming struggle for survival of the fittest financial instruments, the only absolutely reliable asset will be one which is not someone else's liability. I for one will be surprised if the full faith and credit of USG is not compromised by its outstanding obligations.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:52 - ID#318183)
John Disney : What is the RRS? Is it the Rand? An upswing can be certain purely by a Rand/Dollar move - Do you think any real benefit in profitability was gained by the high dollar recently?

Anyone involved in AKSEF/TLM? Any comments would be welcome. Black Gold looks too good at this time, not to get into this mess. I do not discrimate between any gold - be it yellow, white or black.,DROOY,HGMCY,RYO?148,18

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:53 - ID#153110)
I have reason to believe margin is being calculated at some brokerages on some other basis than current market valuation. Hence, no margin calls. This, I think, is another equities innovation imported from the nation who introduced us to candlesticks as a source of illumination.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:56 - ID#350282)
Thanks mate
Pay no attention to the registration ids ( they're both me... )

Will do. ( counsel given )
The problem is/was these people seem to think I know more than most.
( I actually KNOW very little )
However, I consider it a human duty to respond to earnest questions.
I ( also ) cannot allow them to be fully exposed to the reality of the next 24 months before being introduced properly. One must learn for oneself.

Was tolly 404'd - damn that "to kill ya"
Kevan -- are you out there?

Market forcast: none
Back to work.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 02:58 - ID#327123)
Japanese gold commemorative coins
If anyone on this site has knowledge of and/or access to Japanese gold commemorative coins would you please e-mail me at I am interested in purchasing 1 or more of these coins.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:01 - ID#318183)
Rangold Resources = RRS
John - you don't sound so cheerfull about rangy?
I think drooy is the best stock ever to buy but I only own my proportional share though my ownership of rangy. 13.9% lol
Was the crown deal a good one?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:16 - ID#252391)
To Hatt
Agree with you 00:12 post. While speaking about the crisis in world markets Soros and his group just are asking for a continuation of the PONZI scheme of paper money and unlimited credit to continue.

Anything new from ABX??

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:18 - ID#350282)
Latest(?) hotspot
..."We do not want a war with Iran, but if Iran attacks we will take all possible necessary measures,'' Ahmed said, adding that the Taliban had reinforced border positions to counter an Iranian military buildup."...

Iran, Taliban Talk Tough, Put Forces On Guard

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:20 - ID#386245)
cueball@Eddie's Funny
Best Post of the Day award--and the day has only just begun ( for you northern addicts ) .

A message to America's enemies.
If you wish to attack the US, you must first place a microphone in the 'Clinton Hallway'. You will then know when the 'nuclear finger' is otherwise occupied ( not to mention a certain other anatomical appendage ) from the sound effects emanating from the busiest room in the White House.
This man scares me. So much power for one with his brains at half mast.

John Disney
(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:24 - ID#24135)
wow ..
lakefoil ..
RRS is the symbol for randgold resources.
traded london .. it is medium for Syama and
rangy non RSA holdings .. It's gone down a
Crown is ok ..
For me rangys weak spot has always been the
Mali operation .. and the other African bits.
Main problem not instability or crap like
that but simply currency ( franc zone ) with
no soft rand benefit.. PLUS uncertainty of
starting up a new mine which NEVER goes
When Syama is making dough .. ill be back if
price is still okay.

John Disney
(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:37 - ID#24135)
Moreover ..
Lakefoil ..
Im starting to switch my Deeps
into Harmony .. Harmony is a
crazy bargain relative to deeps
at these prices ..
I actually have more deeps than
I do Harmony at present .. long
story but I fell in love with
deeps preference shares a few
months back which on conversion
gave you a share of deeps plus
an option.. so I was a buyer ..
upshot was I got a lot of deeps
and options at half a rand cost.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:38 - ID#350282)
Gomer sez: Suupraize, suupraize suupraize...
Third-quarter profits at U.S. companies will show the weakest growth in nearly seven years, as the global financial crisis steals the wind from a welcome rebound in the battered but influential technology sector, analysts predicted.

Weakest 3rd Quarter Profit Growth In 7 Years Seen

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:39 - ID#183109)
RANGY @ $277
per Kebble, SYAMA was down to $277 by June, nearly 20 bucks lower than Durban's reported cost of $296. RANGY management reports to be on track with the SYAMA II upgrade...originally scheduled for completion in Mar? of 99, now 5 months ahead of schedule for a Nov. 98 implementation. Targets are $210 at 270,000 per year. Even if they miss the target by a bit, with gold nearing $300 they will be pulling in some serious cash. My new "RANGY" website within 48 hrs.....

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:50 - ID#183109)
John Disney @ Harmony

According to the March 98 RANGY release, they own 60% of all Harmony options, nearly 4.4 Million of the critters. Any idea what these are trading at? I sold all my Durban, but choose to pick up more RANGY shares. I bet we both make out good : ) Domo.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:51 - ID#350282)
"No money? Kill the banker"
reads this message on a wall in St Petersburg

Primakov: 'Russia will meet its debts'

Is it really that late?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 03:54 - ID#318183)
profit on rangy??
Polarbear - Do you possibly think $1 1/2 is attainable on rangy? What would make it go up?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:09 - ID#284255)
Now my wife starts to believe me.(:-)))
Helen came home today with an unusual query.
What's going on with my word processor?

Apparently the office where she works has just upgraded to Microsoft Office 97 after using MS Office 95 previously.

Using MS Word 97:
When she starts a letter and types todays date ie Wednesday September.
The programs logic goes forward and brings up the date.
It fills the rest of the sequence.
It should read Wednesday September 18th 1998.

What the progam brings up though is Wednesday September 18th 2098.

100 years into the future.

Here's a snapshot she took of it.
Followed by one off my machine.

How many Microsoft users? - 95 million?
How many paid good money for this software?
How many other glitches?

Who's going to fix it?

How will it impact our society.

This is just a minor example.
But it does point to the scrambled logic within this program.

Swing chart updated.

Very powerful up move.
Showing strong accumulation.
Either we're at the base of a massive rally.
Or the buyers at the moment have made a major mistake.

Volatility is making the oscillator's moves much more pronounced.

Whipsaw dead ahead.

All aboard Gollums Deep Sea Services.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:14 - ID#350282)
Sono sake o non'de mite kudosai.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:20 - ID#350282)
In the words of BTO
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen nuthin yet...

Thanks again for the references.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:32 - ID#284255)
Watch the tick???
Here are two charts of the TICK.
One taken 21st August 1998
Showing the waves/oscillatiions of the tick.

When I last posted it I warned of the coming down wave.

Now look where it is again.

To observe this set's time frame to 720 minutes by typing in 'tick,720' and pressing the enter button.

Well worth watching.
As soon as the trend is confirmed down on the TICK watch out below.

These waves are becoming more observable as the volatility increases.

John Disney
(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:42 - ID#24135)
Harmony options
For Polarbear ..
Harmony options at about 5.5 rand.
for info rand is stronger at 6.11.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:44 - ID#183109)
LACKFOIL AT $1.5 RANGY...I'm a bit more bullish...actually a LOT more :)
Why so bearish my friend? : )

This is just me, but assuming gold rises to $350, Im looking for $5 by the end of 1999. Before you guys ( MM, mo ichi do itte kudusai tomodachi ) ask me what kind of SAKE I've been drinking this afternoon, here's where I'm coming from: This figure includes the implementation of SYAMA II, and the production from SYAMA heap leach at a cost of $130 an ounce due to the cheap nature of heap leaching. Add another year and we get Morila, now looking like a go for 200,000 at a cash cost of $118, I calculate RANGYs share of the RRS profit, end of 2000, at $1.10 a share annually. Give this a reasonable P/E of 10 and I come up with $11 a share. And this figure does NOT include any other potential discoveries by the ongoing RRS exploration, and does not include all the other RANGY assets like TGME, DURBAN, and the very substantial MINERAL RIGHTS PACKAGE of some 7 MILLION hectares ( can someone check my math on this?Im coming up with 70,000 sq. kilometers. )

In the coming gold bull, having prime land holdings in S.A, plus RRSs 20,000 sq. km in Africa will count for a lot. The main thing that RANGY/RRS shareholders need is a bit of patience while they increase production to the goal of 500,000 ounces a year.

Ill have the EXCEL 97 file on the web page Im building, and you can hopefully! download it and put in your own numbers to see where Im coming from. Hope this helps. OK, back to work...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 04:51 - ID#183109)
Thanks John. Any idea what the details are on these specific options? I've spent a considerable amount of time trying, and can't find any specific info on these.

An interesting spike in Durban today from Blanchard and company. As others have mentioned, the smart investors will also look to DD's competition for a comparision of value, and thus we should see some bullish carry-over in our favorites.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 05:19 - ID#252391)
So African golds are trading a little lower today, pulling back to where they should find support, IMHO. Unfortunately they probably won't. Look at a gold chart, doesn't look to healthy - looks like this correction could easily go to $285. Silver looks even worse. MORE DOWN FOLKS. Until we are all freightened I suppose these metals and the shares will not rally again.

I'm getting very tired of this.

Apprecitate the enlightening discussion of my favorite SO African HGMCY.

Hang on maybe the Federal Reserve and AG will save us with a rate cut, then we can join the majority of AMerican who believe CLinton is doing a good job.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 05:20 - ID#284255)
The Paradox of Our Age
We have taller buildings, but shorter tempers; wider freeways, but narrower
viewpoints; we spend more, but have less; we buy more, but enjoy it less.

We have bigger houses and smaller families; more conveniences, but less time;
we have more degrees, but less common sense; more knowledge, but less judgment;
more experts, but more problems; more medicine, but less wellness.

We spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast, get too angry too quickly,
stay up too late, get up too tired, read too seldom, watch TV too much, and pray too little.

We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values. We talk too
much, love too seldom and lie too often.

We've learned how to make a living, but not a life; we've added years to
life, not life to years.

We've been all the way to the moon and back, but have trouble crossing the
street to meet the new neighbor.

We've conquered outer space, but not inner space; we've done larger things,
but not better things; we've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul;
we've split the atom, but not our prejudice; we write more, but learn less;
plan more, but accomplish less.

We've learned to rush, but not to wait; we have higher incomes; but lower
morals; more food but less appeasement; more acquaintances, but fewer
friends; more effort but less success.

We build more computers to hold more information, to produce more copies
than ever, but have less communication; we've become long on quantity, but
short on quality.

These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion; tall men and short
character; steep profits, and shallow relationships.

These are the times of world peace, but domestic warfare; more leisure and
less fun; more kinds of food, but less nutrition.

These are days of two incomes, but more divorce; of fancier houses, but
broken homes.

These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway
morality, one-night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do
everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill.

It is a time when there is much in the show window, and nothing in the

Indeed it's all true. Think about it...

Namaste Reify

(Wed Sep 16 1998 05:47 - ID#258195)
@Goldilocks @Chas @rhody
I'm having to take my computer to the nearby repair shop to fix my spreadsheet problem. I hope to be back by Saturday at 10.00 Kitco time but if I'm not you'll know why and I'll check in again as soon as I can with the data I promised Goldilocks and Chas.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 06:30 - ID#253418)
I'll start off this early morning period
Looks bad for gold and silver, today. Technical damage to the metals bart charts is painfully obvious. A third day down after running up into resistance and beging turned back. Strong dollar the culprit. Live by the sword die by the sword. The dollar is still king.

Anybody know anything about Greenstone Resources - is this another fraud or undervalued junior???

Looks like the SnP is right up at APH's 105 level - and heck AG hasn't even started speaking yet. One positive word out of his mouth and we'll be blowing up to 108 on the Dec SnP - a 250 point gain. I think we'll start to see some broadening out of the rally with a contraction in new lows and a better A/D line.

Dow 10,000 before Gold $315

Today looks to go with the DOw the dollar the bonds and all those thnigs we hold dear. Another winning day for the dipsters - I'm going to be one when I grow up.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 06:37 - ID#290172)
"In our country the lie has become not just a moral category but a pillar of the State." Alexander Solzhenitsyn

FT 9/15
The Lex Column
"Real Maths"

"Brazil's huge rise in interest rates may have temporarily stemmed the risk of devaluation. But there is a danger that the crisis will simply shift locus - to concern about default.

The maths are daunting. Around 60 percent of Brazil's R$340bn ( $290bn ) domestic debt is linked to OVERNIGHT RATES. Last week's increase to nearly 50 per cent therefore has the effect of adding $70bn a year - or 9% of gross domestic product - to an already unsustainable budget deficit of 7 per cent. As if that were not enough, much of the debt is of extremely short maturity: about $90bn is due to be repaid in the next two months. Given the outlook on the deficit, it is touch and go whether investors will be willing to lend large sums of new money. Indeed, today's weekly debt auction has been cancelled because of the turmoil.

.Another option would be to ask the International Monetary Fund for a bailout. Unfortunately, the fund does not have enough cash to underwrite the entire debt coming due. And, while it would probably be willing to subscribe a smaller sum, an inadequately-funded rescue package would risk being blown away by the market.

The remaining options are, if anything, even more ghastly: a debt moratorium while Brazil tries to negotiate a lengthening of its maturity profile; or the imposition of Malaysian-style capital controls.
Brazil is living on borrowed time."

(Wed Sep 16 1998 06:40 - ID#147201)
Dabchick re CLN
Sorry to hear about the problem. Just got done with one myself. Much obliged for your help, Charlie

(Wed Sep 16 1998 06:41 - ID#252286)
@ALL...sorry for my absence...

...but this is a CRITICAL week.

Positioned for the impending Hell.



(Wed Sep 16 1998 06:51 - ID#289357)
Tech Analysis of DOW30, SPX, NASD100, XAU, XOI






(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:01 - ID#289357)
Slippery slope ahead

MRCI correlations

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:16 - ID#289357)
And then, of course, we have Jeil's projections

I think the trigger 'sell' points on his 2 gold mining stocks are HM at 10 7/8 and ASA at 17 1/2 ( I think I reversed fractions on these the other day ) . If those prices are broken on good volume, looks like Jeil's projected trends will be validated.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:18 - ID#20767)
September 15, 1998

Goldman Sachs opens Joburg office

US investment bank Goldman Sachs formally opened an office in Sandton, Johannesburg yesterday.

"Goldman Sachs has been committed to this market for some years and we will continue to seek to support the country's development and its full integration into the world economy," Jon Corzine, co-chief executive and chairman of the bank said.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:19 - ID#229207)
Best of luck to you on your bet of a big DOW rise. I'm betting against you, my friend. To items for your consideration:

Tuesday September 15 6:17 PM EDT
Weakest 3rd Quarter Profit Growth In 7 Years Seen
By Huw Jones
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Third-quarter profits at U.S. companies will show the weakest growth in nearly seven years, as the global financial crisis steals the wind from a welcome rebound in the battered but influential technology sector, analysts predicted.
``Expectations are this will be the slowest quarter since the market expanded in 1991,'' said Richard Cripps, chief market strategist at Legg Mason.
P/E of the top ten mostly traded stocks Sept. 15, 1998.


P/E of the most actively traded stocks in 1972 versus 1980, bull top versus bear bottom.

Sony 92 17
Polaroid 90 16
McDonald's 83 9
Intl. Flavors 81 12
Walt Disney 76 11
Hewlett-Packard 65 18

Even more drastic numbers can be shown for 1929/1934, of course. But the 1972-1980 bear market is, I believe, more similar to what we can expect in this bear market. Of course, no one knows. That's me being optimistic.

The truly outstanding characteristic of this stock market mania is that, unlike most previous manias that have been driven by a single over-blown investment concept, this one has elements of nearly all past manias, perhaps because it has gone on for so long:

- Broad public participation by risk-adverse investors
- A broad range of schemes that depend on unsustainable P/E ratios
--- Growth stocks/new issues craze ( High-Tech, Health Care, etc. )
--- Belief in "New Era" investing
--- Conglomerate boom ( mergers and aquisitions )
--- "Concept" stocks that have infinite P/Es -- no earnings -- due supported by a "can't lose" concept ( e.g., Internet )
--- Speculation in Blue Chip stocks ( extraordinary P/Es for large corporations with slow earnings growth potential )
--- Proliferation of Investment Trusts ( Mutual Funds ) that inflate the values of stocks through fund manipuation

I cannot say what event will cause all of these schemes to fail and bring P/Es back to reality or when, but I do know it will come sooner or later.

See you all later.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:22 - ID#316193)
To Help Fill The Gap When Donald is Absent......
Grab a cup of coffee, there is much to enjoy/absorb on this

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:22 - ID#289357)
XAU Fibonacci Time Chart

Looks like the 19th is a big ( turning point ) day for the XAU on this chart. Since that's a Saturday, perhaps the action comes Friday.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:26 - ID#289357)
Fibonacci Time Chart on the DOW

And this chart shows an important turning point on the DOW tomorrow:

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:32 - ID#289357)
Princeton Economics issues CAITION on daily gold and silver

Click on: Global Market View ( left menu )

Click on: World Metals Market Watch

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:37 - ID#289357)
And here are a whole load of technical indicator and index charts

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:39 - ID#289357)
Oops. CAITION = CAUTION (previous post)

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:41 - ID#29048)
Gold report - Europe

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:42 - ID#29048)
All eyes on Greenspan-Dollar stronger

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:49 - ID#316193)
TOKYO MARKET REPORT -- Available Each Morning Before U.S. Markets Open

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:56 - ID#252391)
Well presented arguement against the proposition that the DOW will rally to 10,000.

Actually, I have no bet in that direction having sold out of stocks on the 17th of July. I do have precious metal mining position. My true feeling is that neither DOW 10,000 or gold at $315 will be seen any time soon, both representing unreachable targets. I have regularly underestimated the power of the DOW bull and suppose there is considerable money on the sidelines that might just get sucked into a sudden rush, falsely based that it might be, which could send the DOW to new highs to all the bears considerable surprise.

Certainly there are factors that could similarly thrust gold higher. I have however, overestimated the strenght of the metals as I have underestimated the power of the DOW. Frankly, most on this board have made similar errors as mine, hence my challenge of the seemingly obsurd: DOW 10,000 before gold $315?????

(Wed Sep 16 1998 07:58 - ID#29048)
RANGY articles
If you still follow this stock, POLARBEAR has put a great deal of effort into pulling together hard to find info.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:02 - ID#289357)
Gold Down-Under vs. Up-Over
Here's an interesting chart from The Privateer on POG in Oz and the US:

Visit this site; there's a world of information there.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:07 - ID#224363)
I hereby declare Tuesday September 15th...
George Soros Day.

I have made this declaration in recognition of the significant amount of discussion held on this site yesterday about Mr. Soros.

Should Mr. Soros announce that he has bought 500 tonnes of gold, I will also declare a national holiday.

In the mean-time, gold goes down, the $US goes up, and stock market oscillates up and down like a pump handle.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:11 - ID#424424)
Silverbaron (Fibonacci Time Chart on the DOW)
The link is bad...... Do you have the correct link?


(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:18 - ID#289357)

The link works for me, but here it is again:

The source site is:

Use the menu at the top of the comment page. BTW, his Elliott Wave count is bullish for the DOW.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:20 - ID#335184)
The force is lurking.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:22 - ID#290172)
Whoopee! Once the bird flies (Jan 1999), the bird will soar!
396R2223 Council Regulation ( EC ) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the Community
Official journal NO. L 310 , 30/11/1996 P. 0001 - 0469
Amended by 398R0448 ( OJ L 058 27.02.98 p.1 )

COUNCIL REGULATION ( EC ) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the Community


7.39. Valuables ( works of art, antiques, jewellery, precious stones, non-monetary gold ( see paragraph 5.30 ) and other metals ) are to be valued at current prices. To the extent that organized markets exist for these assets, they should be valued at the actual or estimated prices that would be paid for them were they purchased on the market, including any agents' fees or commissions, on the date to which the balance sheet relates. Otherwise, they should be valued at acquisition prices revalued to the current price level.

7.44. Financial assets and liabilites should in principle be valued at current prices. They should be assigned the same value whether they appear as financial assets or liabilities. The prices should exclude service charges, fees, commissions and similar payments which are recorded as services provided in carrying out the transactions.

Monetary gold and SDRs ( AF.1 )
7.45. Monetary gold ( AF.11 ) is to be valued at the price established in organized gold markets.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:24 - ID#35571)
Silver's starting to act a little funny again, standby...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:35 - ID#317193)
Thank you for your continued efforts. Germany finally revalues thier gold. Think about that for a while.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:41 - ID#35571)
Having gold valued on the books at far below market value has made it easy for the various central banks to juggle their accounts for many years. Anytime they needed to increase book reserves all they had to do was sell gold. Anytime they wanted a high rate of return on the books for a low valued asset all they had to do was lease gold.

Revaluing gold to market cost will 1 ) generate a reserve windfall ( maybe to counteract Russian exposure losses ) , and 2 ) do it without having to sell any.

Just the news that more of the CB's doing this should be bullish for gold and add to their book profit....

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:49 - ID#317193)
If one planned to revalue would one first lower the price to buy? We will find out soon. Speculation, but has a certain logic to it all.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:53 - ID#30126)
Dow & gold...
Until the DJI breaks 8400 - 8550 area, my belief is that we are in a bear market. Remember, nothing goes straight down or straight up. Gold to take it on the chin until Dow & SnP take another hit. The way to inflict maximum pain on Bull and Bears alike is to catch them in a wide trading range. The 200 DMA for the DJI is as good a place as any to start. Nothing of late has given me reason believe that the bear is over yet. Sharp rallies of several days followed by plunging days are BEAR market attributes. Bull markets have 'consolidation' periods that short followed by long periods of 'up' days. Has anybody seen those in the last couple of months?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:54 - ID#289357)
That's certainly what Nathan Rothschild thought, way back when. I think his relatives have something to do now with the Gold market. Hmmmmmm.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:55 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re T/A
Thanx a lot Tom for these sources. BTW- do you have symbol or source where to get a quote on Fidelity Magellin? I have gone over the site and can't find it. TIA, Charlie

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:57 - ID#30126)
Nice day on the Mt. Washington summit, perhaps the Dow will follow?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:58 - ID#35571)
Strange goings on
Gold descending, silver holding and rising slightly...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 08:59 - ID#35571)
Green dot
Bonds down, one green light on the metals board.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:00 - ID#289357)
Charlie - Use this link:

Click on Daily Price ( NAV ) in the top-left menu.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:01 - ID#35571)
Isn't Berkshire-Hathaway having a meeting today or tomorrow?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:02 - ID#289357)
chas - I meant top-right menu.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:07 - ID#35571)
Now definite stirrings in silver country. Up three cents from this morning while gold has dropped a dollar.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:09 - ID#35571)
is buying into silver under cover of a falling gold market. Spot gold down a buck forty from yesterday and silver up two cents.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:11 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re Fidelity
Thanx Tom. I got it.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:12 - ID#35571)
SIZ8 4.970
In a few minutes I must remember to look what Hecla opens at.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:13 - ID#288186)
Gollum; Regarding Silver...Is this maybe a "buy the rumour" setup? Maybe
Berkshire holders anticipate emphasis on Buffett's Investment
stances ( like his continued holding of physical silver ) ?

Paul Gold
(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:14 - ID#21484)
John Disney
Please forward your email address to

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:16 - ID#35571)
That's what I'm kind of thinking. Logs don't float upriver for no reason. When is that meeting, anyway?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:17 - ID#35571)
Silver spot 4.980
Other metals still down

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:18 - ID#289357)
Gollum, FOX-MAN

It could be a little hedging action using the Gold/Silver Ratio. Sell gold, buy silver. Are the specs still on the long side of silver, or are they washed-out now?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:25 - ID#35571)
Yeah, that could be it too. We'll have to keep our eye on it. If spot hits 5.00 I think we'll be off and running.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:25 - ID#248180)
FT - London "US$ will flood home from Russia, CIS, & East Europe

Personal View 

Saving Russia
The EU should lead any initiative to help Russia, and see the crisis as a chance to reinforce a wider European order, say Michael Emerson and Daniel Gros
The Russian crisis is now of extraordinary gravity. Hyper-inflation is possible within weeks. The circumstances could become comparable to those which preceded the Russian revolution of 1917, or which led to the rise of fascism in Germany. Yevgeny Primakov's nomination as prime minister may calm the political cauldron in Moscow for the time being. But he cannot escape the financial crisis, and his appointment of Victor Gerashchenko as head of the central bank seems likely to get the printing presses working overtime. As if this were not enough, Ukraine is in deep financial crisis too.

The European Union is deeply affected by the crisis and should lead any international response. At stake is the geo-political stability of Europe; the EU business upswing, which could be overwhelmed by a global recession; the smooth launch of the single currency, which could be upset by financial crisis; and the EU enlargement process, because accession candidates are vulnerable to large capital outflows. Any one of these four risks is grave enough, let alone the nightmare of all together. On September 3, the European Commission assessed the likely consequences for the EU and its accession candidates as "limited". This is inadequate.

The EU should not write off the Primakov-Gerashchenko regime. Who knows what their choices may be? Some rise in inflation looks inevitable for a few weeks to wipe out arrears of wages, pensions and inter-enterprise debt. But the government might then start afresh with a new stabilisation programme. If it does, the EU should offer two things to Russia and Ukraine immediately:

Emergency action to stabilise their currencies, including substantial financing for a currency board scheme, pegging the currencies to the euro.

An new initiative to strengthen the wider European order, beyond the EU. The EU is surrounded by instability from Russia to the Balkans to the Mediterranean.

Even if Mr Primakov chooses hyper-inflation, perhaps attempting to suppress it by some price controls, the EU can still act: it should save the Ukraine from the same fate, rather than let the Russian crisis extend into central Europe. A Ukrainian operation would not be that expensive and could be a useful example for Russia.

If aid is to be effective, it must be made impossible to convert the money into capital flight, as happened before. The only way to do this is by erecting a wall between the government and financial markets. This is a necessary condition for a currency board to function and is the main reason why many economists now support this solution for Russia.

If the Russian and/or Ukrainian governments can meet the right conditions, a currency board should be viable with about 30bn-35bn euros ( $35bn-$41bn ) of external money. Europe should provide the lion's share. Just as the US Treasury acted quickly in the Mexican crisis, so in the case of Russia, the lead role should be with the EU. We propose that the EU should guarantee through its budget about 20bn euros towards any stabilisation fund. The US and Japan could then add 6bn-7bn euros each. The rouble is best pegged to the euro for reasons of simple trade structure, but more importantly, to get the EU to rise to the challenge.

Of course, all this assumes that the right conditions are in place. If they are not, providing credit is pointless. The two most important problems to address are how to prevent banks and enterprises taking bets on the exchange rate and how to close the gap between government spending and revenue, which is large in Russia and Ukraine. The first point can be addressed by requiring banks and others to match the currency denomination of their assets and liabilities ( if a bank has dollar assets, it must have equivalent dollar liabilities ) .

On the second, it is unrealistic to expect Russia or Ukraine to run a balanced budget immediately. But it is possible to say that, while the government can have a deficit, it may not borrow from financial markets or the central bank, only from western international financial institutions. There must therefore be financing for an agreed level of government deficit, disbursed in frequent instalments so that implementation can be monitored: 20bn-30bn euros should be adequate to ensure a period of relative stability.

Beyond the immediate crisis, the EU should give a higher priority to deepening the structures of the wider Europe. It should invite all accession candidates to join in working out the new initiative, focusing on an inclusive, multilateral European order, going far beyond the Council of Europe and other bodies. By contrast, the EU should curb its excessive inclination towards a hub-and-spoke pattern of bilateral relations with its neighbours, which encourages Russia, Ukraine and Turkey to feel excluded. An initiative along these lines seems to have been the subject of an abortive discussion by EU foreign ministers a few days ago. One foreign minister said that the EU should not overreach itself. But the EU should rise to its responsibilities in this hour of need.

Michael Emerson is visiting research fellow at the London School of Economics and Centre for European Policy Studies, and a former EU ambassador in Moscow. Daniel Gros is deputy director at CEPS, Brussels

Gandalf the White
(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:31 - ID#433301)
Gollum's XAU Yellow Sub in Dive mode.
Down almost 1 full point now.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:31 - ID#335190)
In all cases where an authoritative opinion is offered, we are entitled to know why that individual is deemed an authority and why they have reached the judgment being offered.

If they are entitled to be considered authorities, they have logical reasons for their judgment.

These reasons then constitute the justification for the conclusion, and should be equally good reasons regardless of who offered them.

People are authorities, not in virtue of who they are, but in virtue of the reasoned judgments they can offer.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:33 - ID#35571)
@Gandalf the White
But watch the silver rocket!! Spot's up to 4.990 against a rising dollar and falling PM market. Hecla opened up an eighth.

Ever see a log float upstream?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:33 - ID#289357)

It wouldn't be a REAL trend break until December silver ( SIZ8 ) breaks above $5.40 or so. I wouldn't count on it.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:37 - ID#35571)
SIZ8 4.980
Spot hit 4.990 for a moment back there, but now it's dropped back to 4.960. Someone must have woke up Ted Arnold.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:42 - ID#35571)
That's right, but it would be suggestive, especially with gold down almost two bucks so far.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:51 - ID#37463)
Clinton and Media
It looks like Clinton is going to face the press. Get ready for another love fest that will make Haight Ashbury seem like a convent retreat in comparison. Maybe the Democrats will leave Clinton, surely the Republicans will, perhaps Hillary and Chelsea will, but never the press. He will be rejuvinated like her born again without the warts and blemishes. After the press conference and within hours the press will be speaking of my as though he walked on water rather than simply passing water.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:54 - ID#35571)
Spot 4.930
Looks like it was a false alarm.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:55 - ID#290172)
Who, What, When, Where, How and WHY?

For twenty-five years ( +/- ) the incipient European Union Community has had a unit of account which was a specific measure of gold. As Nixon, the USG, the IMF/World Bank abandoned gold, the European Community SECRETLY adopted the standard [see Article 8. ]

The question de jour is: As all of the agreements documenting the aforementioned were entered into the Europa dB on 30 July 1998, what assumptions might we logically make? Public "Declaration of Intent"? Quiet advert for, "The Euro, A Currency of Substance"? An effort to calm storm-tossed fiat markets by presenting a map of safe harbor just ahead?
Article 5
The Fund's operations in the currencies of the Member States shall be expressed in a European monetary unit of account of a value of 0 788867088 grammes of fine gold.
When all the Member States alter the parity or the central rate of their currency simultaneously in the same direction, the value of the unit of account shall be changed automatically: - where the parities change in the same proportion : in the same direction and by the same proportion as the changes in parities or in the central rates; - where the parities change in different proportions : in the same direction as the change and in the same proportion as the smallest change in parity or central rate, unless the Council decides on a larger change. In such a case the Council shall act within three days from that of the official announcement by the first Member State to change the parity or central rate of its currency, and in accordance with the procedure laid down in the fourth paragraph of this Article

Article 8
The obligation of professional secrecy contained in Article 214 of the Treaty shall apply to the members of the Board of Governors, the member of the Commission sitting on the Board and his alternate, and to any other person engaged in the activities of the Fund.
Is/Was there a correlation between China's PUBLIC entry into "supporting your local stock market via futures" and Europa's decision to "bare all"?
Is/Was THIS the beginning of the real currency prize fight?

"In this corner, over-weight and over-aged ( to say nothing of over-sexed ) we have the current world champion, Sammy Quadrillion Dollars..."

All this makes one's head ache {:- ) ) Away to the garden and fresh coffee!

Gandalf the White
(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:58 - ID#433301)
Gollum's Silver "Rocket"
Look like short sales as HL opened up 1/8 but on light vol of 3K

(Wed Sep 16 1998 09:58 - ID#243166)
I read Kaplan every day ( which is entertaining ) , but before I make any investment decisions based on these readings, has he EVER been right?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:02 - ID#289357)
Tortfeasor (Clinton and Media)

Maybe we can record his answers to the press and play them backwards so we can find out what he really said. Heh...heh...heh.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:08 - ID#35571)
@Gandalf the White
Right now it appears the rocket didn't have much powder in it.

Oh well, it was interesting.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:08 - ID#35571)
@Gandalf the White
Right now it appears the rocket didn't have much powder in it.

Oh well, it was interesting.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:14 - ID#335190)
What Lincoln Foresaw:

Corporations Being "Enthroned" After the Civil War and Re-Writing the Laws Defining Their Existence

Fortunately, after some burrowing in the univ. library, I was able to confirm its authenticity. Here it is, with more surrounding context:

"We may congratulate ourselves that this cruel war is nearing its end.
It has cost a vast amount of treasure and blood. . . . It has indeed been a trying hour for the Republic; but I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country.

As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.

I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war.

God grant that my suspicions may prove groundless."

The passage appears in a letter from Lincoln to ( Col. ) William F. Elkins, Nov. 21, 1864.

For a reliable pedigree, cite p. 40 of The Lincoln Encyclopedia, by Archer H. Shaw ( Macmillan, 1950, NY ) .

That traces the quote's lineage to p. 954 of Abraham Lincoln: A New Portrait, ( Vol. 2 ) by Emanuel Hertz ( Horace Liveright Inc, 1931, NY ) .

It appears Lincoln has been extensively SANITIZED FOR OUR PROTECTION.

The Hidden Lincoln; from the Letters and Papers of William H. Herndon, by Emanuel Hertz ( Viking Press, 1938, NY ) , details how Herndon ( Lincoln's lifelong law partner ) collected an extensive oral history and aggregated much of Lincoln's writings into a collection that served as the basis for many "authoritative" books on Lincoln.

A final Lincoln tidbit, although it pertains to one very specific case:

"These capitalists generally act harmoniously and in concert to fleece the people, and now that they have got into a quarrel with themselves, we are called upon to appropriate the people's money to settle the quarrel."

speech to Illinois legislature, Jan. 1837. See Vol. 1, p. 24 of Lincoln's Complete Works, ed. by Nicolay and Hay, 1905 )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:16 - ID#35571)
DOW -2
I pulled th yellow sub back down from where it had floated up yesterday. It appears there were too many politicians in the sheeple EJ had brought in for ballast. This gave the ballast too high of a hot air content. I have replaced the politicos with bureaucrats. This gives the ballast a much higher lead and dead weight content.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:17 - ID#35571)
DOW -2
I pulled th yellow sub back down from where it had floated up yesterday. It appears there were too many politicians in the sheeple EJ had brought in for ballast. This gave the ballast too high of a hot air content. I have replaced the politicos with bureaucrats. This gives the ballast a much higher lead and dead weight content.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:17 - ID#266105)

I somehow gather that you didn't vote for Mr. Clinton.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:20 - ID#431200)
Are Free Markets Failing?
Wednesday, September 16, 1998 By JAMES FLANIGAN, Times What,s New?Free-market economics and political liberty were the worldwide hallmarks of this decade--and may still be the basic, underlying trends. But something has happened, a shadow of doubt on the inevitability of open markets in Russia, Hong Kong and elsewhere, a threat to historic reforms in Brazil and other Latin American countries.
Storm clouds are no longer beyond the horizon, but are threatening a global depression that would scuttle even the strong U.S. economy. "The biggest financial challenge facing the world in a half century," President Clinton calls it.
But what really happened? If liberalizing trends were positive, what turned the landscape negative? Have free markets failed us? If not, can they restore prosperity to Asia, stability to Russia and Latin America, help China and Japan to reform? In this special section, The Times looks at the new global economy, defining its power bases and explaining its workings.
The yearlong Asian crisis, the collapse of the Russian economy, the frightening gyrations of world currency and stock markets pose a central question for the world: Are free markets failing?
And if they are, might many nations retreat from democratization and increasingly open trade and investment, moving instead toward autocratic governments and closed markets?
These very questions indicate that the current turmoil marks a critical juncture for the world--one that could determine its basic political and economic direction well into the next century.
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
When the Berlin Wall came down and communism and the Soviet Union went into the ashcan of history in 1989-91, those watershed events were said to signal a new dawn of political and economic freedom in the world, the ultimate triumph of the American system of open markets and democratic government.
Francis Fukuyama, a former U.S. State Department policy official, wrote a book titled "The End of History" that summed up the spirit of the time. Totalitarian government and socialist central planning were now proven failures, Fukuyama wrote. The future belonged to "individual freedom" and free markets.
It was easy to feel that way. All of Asia was rollicking as investments from global financial markets built industries that made goods for export and raised living standards in South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and other poor countries.
Japan's big economy, though slowing, was helping to finance these Asian developments--it was the "conductor of the Asian orchestra," as one U.S. scholar put it. China was growing under a Communist government that encouraged private enterprise. Russia, a new democracy, was noisily trying to convert its economy to free-market principles.
And the United States, after a stall because of defense budget downsizing, was in a new kind of economic recovery, led by small companies and heavy investment in computers, communications and other high technology. The stock market soared.
But suddenly, all has changed. Virtually all of Asia stands in recession. The most worrisome is Japan, the world's second-largest economy, which is locked in paralysis and unable to repair a crippled banking system. Latin America is battered and bleeding, its free-market reforms ignored and punished by fickle world investors. Russia is in political and economic chaos.
President Clinton on Monday described the crisis as the "biggest financial challenge facing the world in a half-century" and called on all the major nations to work together to restore stability and economic growth.
Thus, in little more than a year, a world economy that promised almost endless growth and prosperity has sunk perilously close to global depression.
Small wonder that people and countries around the world are questioning the whole idea of global free markets.
Retreat has begun. Malaysia has slapped controls on the trading of its currency. Governments in Hong Kong and Taiwan have gone to battle with foreign speculators by buying shares in companies to prop up local stock markets.
These countries are suddenly asking whether it's such a good idea to allow their money to be freely converted into other currencies and to allow foreign money to finance their economies.
Ironically, China--which remains under tight government control and has partly insulated itself from the gyrations of world markets because its currency, the yuan, is not freely convertible--is being complimented by economists for keeping greater control of its economy.
Are free markets failing us?
Not necessarily. But they urgently need help.
"I look upon the Asian crisis and that of the global capital market as analogous to the U.S. as it moved to a national market in the decades after the Civil War," said Jeffrey Garten, a U.S. Commerce Department undersecretary in 1993-95 who is now dean of Yale's Graduate School of Management.
In that time, money flowed and the oil, steel and telephone industries were built, but there were no regulations, no infrastructure of finance and investment.
"So there was corruption, frequent panics and waste," Garten said. "Butmarkets grow before institutions."
In the 20th century, the U.S. created the Federal Reserve System, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other regulatory agencies.
And that structure of regulation and governmental support has served it well. Of course, since the 1930s, the U.S. has had bank failures and serious bank crises--in the 1980s with loans to developing countries, for instance. But its institutions have managed the crises and there has never again been an old-style bank panic with losses to small depositors.
"It is that kind of institutional infrastructure that will have to be built globally," Garten said. "It will take the next 10 years to do it. In the meanwhile, we will have ups and downs as we do today."
After World War II, as the interdependence of economies and governments grew, the industrial nations tried to manage such global economic issues by establishing the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But they have proved inadequate to rein in the past year's lightning-fast contagion.
Actually, "free market" is a misnomer for most of the countries of Asia.
They are mostly developing countries with fledgling economies unable to absorb the flood of money that came their way in this decade. In 1994, about $40 billion flowed into developing countries in Asia. Within two years, that impressive amount had doubled, economist Graham Elliott of UC San Diego points out.
Some of this money came from Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese companies. They built factories to make parts for export or set up beachheads for exploiting the rapid growth they expected in those markets. This is the best kind of investment for developing nations because it stays in place and creates jobs.
Still, there was always a dangerously narrow foundation to Asia's economic expansion. It has been based on manufacturing cars, electronics, apparel and the like and sending them to the United States.
U.S. imports from China and Southeast Asia doubled in the 1990s, with China's portion of the market growing at the expense of smaller countries.
Then, in 1994, Beijing helped its exports along by devaluing the yuan by 35%. The following year, the Mexico peso crisis--such are the complexities of world currency movements--created an opening for Japan, with the approval of industrial nations, to push the yen's value sharply lower.
Those moves by the giants of Asia undercut the competitiveness of the booming but fragile economies of Southeast Asia. They were the precursor to Thailand's devaluation of the baht in July 1997, which unleashed the Asia crisis.
Yet those "tiger" economies were booming only because they received a flood of foreign investment--and then only because their currencies were propped up by a tie to the U.S. dollar. They reassured investors that the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and others would fluctuate only as much as the world's leading currency.
This proved to be fiction, as did so many appearances of free markets among the economies of Asia. Most of them, taking their model from Japan, tried to maximize exports but tightly restrict imports. Governments, not markets, made decisions on investments. As in Japan, what appeared to be open stock markets were in fact heavily influenced by governments and major corporations.
Much of the foreign investment in Southeast Asia was loans from Japanese, European and U.S. banks looking to earn fees and interest income. The loans built grand hotels and shiny office buildings, many of them vanity projects with little economic justification.
Thus, it was not free markets that failed, but their opposite.
"The biggest failures have been due to impediments placed in the way of free markets," said Charles Wolf, senior economic advisor at Rand Corp. "In Japan and [South] Korea, for example, preferential treatment was accorded to [government-] targeted firms and industries through subsidized loans, cross-holdings by banks and nontariff barriers to import competition."
Government-directed investment policies in Japan, South Korea, China and Southeast Asia led to vast overcapacity. Japan can produce almost double the number of carssells domestically every year; South Korea, three times as many. And along with cars, those countries and others in Asia have built up vast overcapacity for all the components of cars, from steel to semiconductors.
Now, as local and regional markets for cars and other products have withered, the producing countries have slashed the values of their currencies in hopes of making their surplus goods salable around the world.
And that combination of glut and competitive devaluations is starting to displace the goods of other nations--notably Latin American ones--on world markets. That threat of displacement, in turn, has eroded global investors' confidence in the Latin nations' ability to maintain their economies.
Traders are selling Brazilian and Mexican government bonds, forcing those countries to hike interest rates to attract capital and avoid devaluing their currencies. Devaluation would destroy the economic and social stability the Latin countries have worked hard to achieve in recent years.
This is the essence of the "Asian contagion" that is sweeping through the world like an epidemic, bringing down strong and weak alike. For more and more experts, the antidote is quarantine--closing off national economies from the risks of global markets.
And in fact, temporary currency controls can halt the wild trading in a nation's money, as medicines and cold baths can break a fever. Some mainstream Western economists are suddenly prescribing this very treatment.
But for the long term, the solution to the world's economic imbalances is not retreat from free markets but reforms to achieve and support them. That is because global, open markets are the only way poor countries will get the money they must have to develop their economies.
China, for example, has not escaped the global slowdown by insulating itself from world markets.
Reforming China's state-owned banks and industries through privatization is the chief mission of China's government. And Beijing needs global investment to achieve its economic transition, to help finance the construction of its roads, communication and power systems, the modernization of its production and the creation of the service industries that will employ the majority of its work force--as such industries do in the U.S. and other advanced economies.
Other developing nations are in the same boat. The reason they are poor, as the man said, is that they don't have enough money--while the industrialized countries have surplus savings to invest. In the U.S., the investable assets of pension funds and mutual funds alone total more than $12 trillion. And it is looking for places to grow.
Unfortunately, the current crisis is likely to discourage investment in developing economies for years to come.
"There is a recalibration of risk on the basic question of open markets," said Daniel Yergin, co-author of "The Commanding Heights," a book tracing the shift from government-controlled to market-oriented economies since the 1970s. "There is now much less confidence among pension investors in the economies of developing countries."
Recapturing that confidence will take new global institutions to create and maintain standards of accounting, economic law, banking and finance. Yale's Garten suggests a global central bank.
Easier said than done, but it would control the world money supply and set interest rates as the Fed and Germany's Bundesbank do now, through purchases and sales of government securities. Such an institution, if it existed now, could prevent the capital flight that is harrowing Brazil.
Of course, setting up a transnational super-bank would be a true political minefield. Nations would have to cede authority to any such institution. In the U.S., congressional opposition would be guaranteed, just as lawmakers protested a loss of sovereignty when the U.S. joined the new World Trade Organization in 1995.
And internationally, the difficulties in creating effective organizations are magnified. The United Nations and its 15-member Security Council are not encouraging models, even after half a century.
But the world has little choice if rising living standards are not to be sundered by frequent financial panics.
The good news is that today's crisis is accelerating major change.
For example, the crisis is forcing Japan to change its economic and political structure. And this will lead to a rethinking of the U.S.-Japan security alliance, said Frank Gibney, head of the Pacific Basin Institute at Pomona College and a longtime businessman in Japan.
The security alliance, a formal agreement under which the two countries commit to mutual defense and U.S. troops are stationed in Japan, mostly at Japan's expense, has been central to the U.S.-Japan relationship for more than 50 years. It is similar to the way the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has governed U.S. relations with Europe. Yet today, foreign policy thinkers on both sides of the Pacific are discussing how to change that relationship now that the Cold War is long over.
A change in the security alliance, said Chalmers Johnson, president of the Japan Policy Research Institute in Cardiff, Calif., would push Japan to become "a more independent nation" with a multi-party political system, its own defense policy and a more open, consumer-oriented economy.
Major change is coming in the world's money too. Experts believe that a new monetary system will emerge in which other currencies, such as Europe's new euro and Japan's yen, will share with the dollar the role of being legal tender for the world's transactions.
Such a system could bring stability to world markets by providing alternatives to the dollar. In a crisis like this one, Germany and Japan could intervene to help nations battling currency speculation.
This magnitude of change requires leadership. But today, U.S. leaders are distracted by scandal, even though now clearly awake to the economic crisis. And Congress is more disposed to argue about whether to give more money to the depleted IMF than to take action to help stabilize the world situation.
Such myopia is not what won the Cold War, or created the world that prospered so historically in the half-century after World War II.
At the end of the Cold War, a prosperous future and spreading democracy under U.S. leadership were taken for granted.
But the present crisis demonstrates that creating prosperity and democracy is hard work and that the U.S. cannot manage the world all by itself.
Meanwhile, the problems and prospects for Latin America, Asia, Europe and the United States are distinct in many ways. Yet they are profoundly interrelated, as we are learning in this crisis.

LATIN AMERICA: Successes Imperiled by Currency Shifts
If ever an area exemplified the need for new institutions to stabilize the world economy, it is Latin America.
The region, which in economic reckoning runs from Mexico in North America to the tip of Argentina in South America, is under attack in international financial markets. Brazil has been forced to raise interest rates to prohibitive levels to retain short-term foreign investments and defend the value of its currency, the real.
Mexico is being hit by similar storms of speculation against the peso; Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador have already been forced to devalue their currencies.
It is all so untimely. Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and other Latin nations have all worked in recent years to reform their economies, opening borders to international trade and welcoming investment. The countries of Latin America are the most important emerging markets for U.S. exports. U.S. banks have more on loan in Latin American countries than in Asia.
Reform has gone beyond economics. Latin countries, regarded only 10 years ago as "basket cases," have embraced constitutional democracy as an ideal and have turned to cooperation with each other, said professor Abraham Lowenthal of USC, an expert on the region. "It is a shift of historic dimensions," he said.
The attacks in currency markets threaten that progress. Raising interest rates cuts economic growth in countries where unemployment is already high and annual income per person is a few thousand dollars. Devaluation is no solution. Brazil in the 1980s knew frequent devaluations and ruinous hyper-inflation. The living standards of Mexico's wage earners have never fully recovered from the 1994 devaluation of the peso.
Latin America's economic reforms are not complete. Several countries' continued dependence on short-term international investments to finance budget deficits is a sign of weakness. Significantly, Chile, the first Latin nation to reform its economy, discourages investments shorter than one year.
But attacks by currency traders only set back reforms and could cause a continent-wide recession. And if Latin America fails, say experts, a U.S. recession would be almost certain.
So it was with some urgency that Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin telephoned Brazil recently to pledge U.S. support. And Clinton on Monday called on the world's leading industrial nations to arrange emergency aid for Brazil and other Latin nations. At meetings planned for early October in Washington of representatives from 22 of the world's leading nations, new and more permanent mechanisms to forestall such economic crises will be discussed.

ASIA: Tough Tasks Ahead for 2 Giants
The outlook for Asia rests on its two giants--Japan, the large but lagging economy, and China, the populous nation that is a future superpower but economically weak today.
Japan, despite its postwar economic miracle, democratic system and many hallmarks of Western-style economies, has yet to experience a free market. Indeed, that is at the heart of its most urgent problem: a banking system staggering under as much as $1 trillion in bad loans.
In Japan's state-directed economy, banks are not independent institutions. Many of their ill-advised loans were government-influenced funds for corporations. So reforms move slowly.
Yet leaving the banks as they are, calling in loans, not furnishing new capital to Japanese business or to other Asian countries, is hurting the region, said Steven Clemons, a longtime Japan expert at Washington's Economic Strategy Institute.
With a $4-trillion economy to absorb massive write-offs, Japan's financial problem is less threatening to the world than its social and political problem. Japan's government-business system seems unable to move decisively to solve the bank crisis.
A probable outcome, say analysts of Japan, is that political paralysis over bank bailouts will lead to new elections in which opposition parties will gain real power for almost the first time in Japan's postwar history.
Financial analysts fear that bank write-offs will reduce many companies' net worth and that elections will lead to a period of political indecision. But many Japan experts counter that loan write-offs will allow banks to lend again and that elections may bring vibrancy to a politically stagnant country.
"Elections will restore the peoples' confidence," said Pomona College's Gibney.
Meanwhile, there are good signs: Japan's heavy public works spending in the last year may be producing results. J.P. Morgan & Co. forecasts that the Japanese economy, now in recession, will return to positive growth, a 1.3% annual rate, next year.
Japan also is introducing new participatory pension plans, akin to American 401 ( k ) plans, to allow its people to boost returns on retirement savings. And that's a major step toward Japan's government-dominated economy giving citizens more control over their economic fate.
China's task is bigger, but accomplishing it might prove easier under its authoritarian system.
China also must reform its banks, with the Beijing government floating $32 billion in bonds to pump capital into 18 state banks. The banks then are to become mortgage lenders to China's urban workers, enabling them to purchase their homes.
Homeownership is a centerpiece of China's economic reform. If China can convert state-owned housing to private homes, it will create a new financial industry in mortgages and consumer loans. It will spur construction and boost the economy, which this year may grow at only half the hoped-for 8% rate.
More important, the creation of finance and real estate and related industries will increase employment in service occupations and provide jobs for employees now being let go by the nation's overstaffed manufacturing industries.
To achieve all its ambitious reforms, China needs foreign investment. It wants to sell $700 billion in government bonds to finance infrastructure development. And it wants to raise capital for Chinese corporations by selling stock on world markets.
But right now, with its economy slowing and Hong Kong's economy under siege in world markets, China may have to reduce the value of its currency, the yuan, in the next year to keep its exports competitive.
These steps seem doomed to fail unless China continues its gradual opening to the rest of the world economy. And that is probably inevitable.

EUROPE: Thriving Markets Add to Strength
In the current crisis, although it is being hurt by fallout from Russia's collapse and slippage in exports to Asia, Europe stands next to the United States as a pillar of economic strength.
In fact, in Europe, with its self-reliant and independent countries, it is possible to see that the underlying purpose of U.S. policy throughout the long Cold War is coming to fruition.
The European Union, begun as the six-nation European Coal and Steel Community 47 years ago, stands as a good example of government supporting free markets by laying the groundwork for development.
And now the Europeans are on the threshold of establishing a common currency, the euro, whose very reason for being is to ease the path for commerce across the region's many national borders and invigorate its traditionally sluggish economies.
The euro, which in January begins a two-year introductory period for 11 of the EU's 15 member countries, will bring great cost savings by eliminating constant exchange transactions among marks and francs, lire and guilders.
The major European nations have long straddled the fence between unfettered markets and a strong government role in economic affairs.
The EU has funneled capital to build infrastructure in poorer outlying regions of Europe, as the American government did with the Tennessee Valley and other parts of the rural South in the 1930s.
Thus Spain and Portugal have developed economically as full members of the EU, the barren west of Ireland is now crisscrossed with new roads that have brought a boom in tourism. And the south of Sicily, historically a poverty-stricken region from which came thousands of immigrants to America, has gained roads and water systems enabling it to supply citrus fruit to the Italian mainland and elsewhere in Europe.
Still, Europe can't avoid the global crisis. The fall of Russia's economy has caused losses for German banks and reduced growth prospects for the EU's economy to 2.5% next year. And Russia's fall has reduced confidence and the flow of investment to the emerging markets of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
But in the wake of the Cold War, markets are winning out in Europe, as the euro signifies. And that will enable Europe to confront one of its greatest challenges: aging populations needing to support themselves in retirement.
Europe's government social security plans are proving inadequate to the task. The solution is growth in private pension plans, fueled by equity markets. Increasingly, European companies are traded on stock exchanges around the world so they can tap global capital markets.
The prospect now is for stock exchanges in Europe to expand as future cross-border investing is enhanced by the single currency.

UNITED STATES: Restructurings Led to Healthy Economy
The U.S. economy has twice gone through the kind of wrenching restructuring that is now the fate of economies in all other regions of the world.
The first restructuring began in the early 1980s, when U.S. industry was ripe for disciplining because American companies had been embarrassed by foreign competitors. And the inflationary 1970s had been a disaster for the stock market; pension funds were demanding higher returns on retirement savings.
The U.S. solution was corrective surgery via corporate takeovers and mergers. Workers were let go as companies transformed production lines. Howls of protest went up over the "hollowing out of U.S. industry." But the process continued and U.S. companies improved.
The Cold War ended in 1989, and the economy was forced to go through another reconstruction. The aerospace and defense industry downsized and, in the early 1990s, it seemed that every other company did too.
Only disbelief greeted early signs that a new economy was emerging, based on investment in computer technology and led by relatively small companies. Yet business investment increased steadily. Industry spent more on research and development, taking up the slack left by shrinking government budgets.
Suddenly it became clear that America's new economy did indeed create jobs and incomes. The U.S. economy became the envy of other nations. And U.S. economists and politicians began to boast that lessons from America could bring effortless prosperity to the world.
Now the current crisis has imposed a reality check. It is clear that a new global economy's evolution will take longer and require unprecedented efforts and institutions.
And as Clinton acknowledged Monday in his speech calling on all major nations to work together for economic growth, the United States cannot prosper in isolation, nor can it lead the world by itself.
The World As Economists See It
The world looks different when the size of a country is determined by its Gross Domestic Product, or total output of goods and services. The 40 largest economies are depicted here. The biggest: the United States, Japan and Germany. The countries are further indentified by how open, or "free," their economies are, as measured by the conservative Heritage Foundation. Countries are more "free" when they have open trade policies, few taxes, little regulation, property rights, unfettered capital flows and so forth. Hong Kong is ranked as the world's most open economy. But that was before last month, when the former British colony started buying stocks in a duel with speculators. The rankings also have not been updated to reflect recent changes in Malaysia, which partially closed its markets. None of the 40 largest economies fits the fourth category, "repressed," which applies to such countries as Cuba and North Korea. Global Distribution of Economic Freedom Key
* * *

Mostly closed

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:28 - ID#277302)
The solution to the global deflationary turmoil is simple....
If the American, European and Japanese can't or won't agree to a concerted monetary easing in order to halt the spreading deflationary chaos, then the ONLY other option available at this critical stage is to INFLATE the price of Gold to a minimum of U.S.$ 350/oz.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:42 - ID#335190)
If you think our goal is impossible, remember this; only 3% of Americans supported the Revolutionary War, and we won that war. We can win this war too, but only with your help.

RICHARD M. COHAN, Senior Producer of CBS political news said: "We are going to impose OUR AGENDA on the coverage by dealing with issues and subjects that WE choose to deal with."

RICHARD SALANT, former President of CBS News stated: "Our job is to give people not what they want, but what WE decide they ought to have."

And what is "their" agenda? What do they believe we, the American people, - THE COMMON HERD, "...ought to have?"


Here's one terrific example. John Swinton, the former Chief of Staff for the New York Times, was one of New York's best loved newspapermen.

Called by his peers "The Dean of his Profession", John was asked in 1953 to give a toast before the New York Press Club, and in so doing, made a monumentally important and revealing statement.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:59 - ID#333126)
bullish sign or sign of desperation?

insider buying. hmm...

what time is Greenspan giving his speech?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 10:59 - ID#333126)
bullish sign or sign of desperation?

insider buying. hmm...

what time is Greenspan giving his speech?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 11:14 - ID#229207)
Final note: How'd you like to be AG today?
My guess is that the markets expect him to waffle on the rate thing, not say anything definative. The problem for AG is that if he lowers rates, the net effect may be to hurt emerging markets with further capital flight to the US stock market when the US markets rise in resonse, and if he doesn't raise rates the US market may tank because it has factored a drop in rates into the current market, leading to a negative wealth effect, lowering consumption, and hurting emerging markets. So he'll do his best to say he's going to do nothing for now but will lower rates the instant it becomes apparent he needs to.

Wall St stocks flat awaiting Greenspan testimony
Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 all little changed in morning with
market on hold ahead of Fed chairman Greenspan 1300 EDT/1700
GMT testimony to House Banking Committee. Rubin speaks at same
event. Hopes high Fed will signal rate cut coming. GE shares up
2-11/16 to 80-3/4 after Merrill raises rating. Aug industrial
output up 1.7 pct, cap use 81.7 pct, both stronger than
expected. Long bond up 5/32, yield at 5.25 pct.DOW

(Wed Sep 16 1998 11:18 - ID#431200)
Can a G-7 Initiative End the Global Crisis?

Can a G-7 Initiative End the Global Crisis?By Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff WriterWednesday, September 16, 1998; Page B09 Okay, so leadership has been asserted. United action has been pledged by the world's biggest economic powerhouses against the financial crisis battering economies in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America.But will the new moves under consideration stem the financial turmoil that has proven so impervious to conventional remedies?
That's the question market analysts, traders and economists are weighing following President Clinton's speech Monday calling for action on "the biggest financial challenge facing the world in half a century," which was accompanied by a declaration endorsing most of his views from the top economic officials of the Group of Seven major industrial countries.
Amid a general sense of cheer that Clinton and the G-7 were finally seeking to address the crisis after weeks of appearing paralyzed by domestic political troubles, many experts are skeptical that Monday's initiative promises an end to the turbulence anytime soon -- if at all.
The markets' worst fears, they said, may be eased by the clear message that the Federal Reserve and other central banks stand ready to cut interest rates if a global recession looms. But some argued that the crisis is careering beyond the control of the world's governments: the International Monetary Fund has already committed most of its ready cash for bailouts; a giant economy -- Brazil -- has recently suffered a massive flight of capital; and the Russian economy has virtually collapsed despite efforts by the IMF and others to stabilize it.
"All these guys want to look like they're leading, because the markets complain there's no leadership -- but what can they do?" said Philippa Malmgren, senior currency strategist at Bankers Trust Co. in London. "The G-7 don't have the money to throw at these crises, and especially after what happened to Russia, no political leader can be seen as throwing good taxpayer money down an empty hole. I think we've moved from the point where these countries are too big to fail, to the point where they're too big to save."
The rhetoric from Clinton and the G-7 did resonate with investors, at least initially, by underscoring official determination to keep Latin America from succumbing to the fate suffered by the likes of Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Russia, which have plunged into deep recessions following sharp sell-offs of their stocks and currencies.
In an effort to dispel fears that the IMF would be too short of funds to aid Brazil, the president and the G-7 economic officials said they would grant the IMF easy access to an emergency line of credit, in which about $15 billion remains.
Financial markets in the region responded with a spectacular rally yesterday, as Brazil's stock market soared nearly 19 percent and Mexico's nearly 13 percent. "Clinton and the G-7 are trying to draw a line in the sand here, and the fact that they are focusing on the seriousness of the situation is clearly very helpful," said Desmond Lachman, head of emerging markets research at Salomon Smith Barney in New York.
But Lachman and others said Brazil, which last week was losing an average of about $1.5 billion a day, still faces huge doubts about its ability to rein in its budget deficit and roll over more than $70 billion in local debt coming due in the next few weeks. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, despite enjoying a solid reputation as an economic reformer, is politically constrained by a looming election from reaching a bailout agreement with the IMF -- so the country's markets are by no means safe from a renewed sell-off.
On some issues, Clinton and the G-7 resorted to gauzy phrases and proposals that seemed aimed at papering over differences on fiendishly complex problems.
Clinton called for an international conference in 30 days, for example, to begin developing proposals to make the global financial system less prone to crises. And the G-7 agreed on "accelerated efforts to promote" new approaches for comprehensively easing the crippling debt burdens of companies in crisis-stricken countries. "This gives an impetus that will make it possible for us to look hard at ideas that might have been thought unorthodox or heretical," an administration official said.
As for the hint of a coordinated reduction in interest rates, Hans Tietmeyer, the head of Germany's central bank, threw cold water on hopes for an imminent rate cut by by telling a news conference that in Europe, at least, there was little justification for such a move because the continent's economies are growing smartly. "It would be wrong to see [the G-7 communique] as favoring a general lowering of interest rates," he said.
In any event, many economists are unsure that a rate cut by the Fed and other central banks would do much to help countries in crisis escape their plight.
A cut in the short-term rates the Fed controls probably would cause U.S. banks to lower their prime lending rates. That could stimulate borrowing and spending by Americans that would help keep the U.S. economy from falling into a recession. And avoiding a slump in the United States -- the biggest market for the exports of many Asian and Latin American countries -- is crucial to keep the global crisis from worsening.
But with the U.S. economy already robust, a rate cut by the Fed anytime soon risks being seen as a desperate measure to boost investor sentiment. "It won't solve Japan's problems, or Asia's problems, or Russia's problems, or Brazil's problems," Lachman said.
And Malmgren, likening a rate cut to trying to rev up a motor, said: "What happens if you hit the throttle, step on the gas, and the engine doesn't turn over?"
 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Wed Sep 16 1998 11:54 - ID#254321)
Congress fed up with Janet Reno
All: Apparently the gloves are off -- she gave them a Campaigngate report from the Justice department, and more than half of it was blanked out. There is a very telling comment from Louis Freeh, who wants the investigation done by independent council: Paraphrasing -- of the 115 of so witnesses interviewed, all either fled the country or 'pled the Fifth'. He then went on to say that the last time he had experienced such behavior was when he was 'investigating the mob'. This means that the witness knew they were breaking the law.

No wonder Janet Reno is dragging her feet -- her boss could be in deep trouble just with Campaigngate.

Sorry -- I lost the url -- will look for it later.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 11:55 - ID#431200)
Experts at rebuilding tarnished images threw up their hands in defeat yesterday when asked for advice for Monica Lewinsky.
Consultants and spin doctors, asked what steps Team Monica should take to transform her from a national joke, had an easier time coming up with ideas on what the ex-intern shouldn't do.
Avoid the pay-per-view wrestling matches and don't take money from the Gap to pose with "The Dress,' suggested John Elsasser, editor in chief of the trade paper Public Relations Tactics.
Get married, change your name, move to the suburbs and put on 30 pounds, PR wizard Frank Mankiewicz advised.
Any alternatives?
Take the veil, become a nun, Mankiewicz offered.
Not even a deal with No Excuses, the jeans company that sees a scarlet letter as a badge of honor?
She's not what I call commercially viable ... because of the graphic nature of this, No Excuses President Bobby Reiss said. My kids have always been aware of what we've done, but this is unexplainable.
In the past, No Excuses has allied itself with Donna Rice and Paula Jones - but the pros say Lewinsky can't hope for the image makeover they achieved.
I know Donna Rice and she's no Donna Rice, public-relations specialist Dan Klores said.
She's not ever going to get a serious job. Her best hope is to get the money she's going to make on book deals and whatever, and invest it wisely.
Rice, author of the new book Kids Online: Protecting Your Children in Cyberspace, said when she was caught sitting on presidential hopeful Gary Hart's lap a decade ago, she also was told to take the money and run.
I instead put my faith in hope and God and good judgment, and that led me to go underground for seven years and be silent and let the storm pass. It was one day at a time, she said.
Many, many long years went by, but I came out in the end and I chose not to exploit my own notoreity. I got married and moved to Washington and started working for a national nonprofit ... and I hope I now I have some credibility.
In fact, some of the image experts reached yesterday agreed Lewinsky's smartest move may be no move at all.
Her best offense is her continued defense, said Washington-based communications consultant Heidi Berenson.
Eventually, it has got to subside, Berenson said of the furor. For now, I think the advice is: Keep your head down and let the news cycle go until it's eclipsed. I can't imagine what she could possibly say to help.
On the other hand, Susan Carpenter-McMillan, who was one of Paula Jones' advisers, thinks Lewinsky could rehab her rep with a carefully focused message.
I would have her do one select interview with a very high-profile journalist and have her go before the American people and pour her heart out, she said.
She should tell them, "For all of you, it's a joke, but for me, it was a deep emotional commitment.
Ultimately, though, what Lewinsky should do depends on what she's after.
I would ask her ... "Do you want to take the money and run - take the $5 million, write the book and live a fabulous life in Paris?' Elsasser said.
On the other hand, if you're tired of being in the spotlight, I hear Iceland is beautiful this time of year.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 11:59 - ID#37463)
Boy, either I am transparent or you are psychic. The truth of the matter is I did not vote for him either time. At least you did not malign my typo's in my post. I'll have to say though, I love it when Bill talks dirty.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:10 - ID#377196)
Good question about whether insider buying is bullish or desperation.
My observation is that insiders are no better at buying than the rest of
us. I remember the junior gold market. All the way down the insiders
were buying. And lately, the directors of Newmont bought at $18. But the
stock went to $13 anyway.

I think the bullish view of stocks is so pervasive that insiders
cannot always see the big picture.

The only time insider buying is really acurate is after a stock has
been in a bear market for at least 1 1/2 years, is in the doldrums
with low trading month after month and suddenly you see the insiders
buying. That means they can see a turn around.

I know a lot of junior mining executives who bought their stock at
$6, down from $20 and the stock still went to $.90!!!!!

Bear markets take everyone with them. The smart and the not so smart.

That's my opinion. I have been caught too.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:11 - ID#266105)

Wanniski setting the record straight on Tiannamen Square--

An opportunity to stomp another weasel-sucked egg planted
between ears by shoddy journalism.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:11 - ID#290172)
When "They" tell you gold is being demonetized, keep this in mind won't you

6.31. Category K.12.2 distinguishes monetization/demonetization of gold ( K.12.21 ) and changes in classification of assets or liabilities other than monetization/demonetization of gold ( K.12.22 ) .

6.32. Monetization/demonetization of gold ( K.12.21 ) is recorded in the other changes in the volume of assets account of the monetary authorities, that is to say in the subsector the central bank ( S.121 ) or central government. Demonetization of gold is recorded symmetrically ( S.1311 ) .

Monetization of gold occurs when the monetary authorities reclassify gold from stocks of valuables to reserve assets held by the monetary authorities. The other changes in the volume of assets account records then a decrease in their holding of valuables and an increase in their holding of monetary gold.

Purchases of monetary gold directly from other monetary authorities are classified as transactions in monetary gold ( F.11 ) . All other purchases, including those from financial intermediaries or via an organized gold market must be recorded as purchase of valuables followed by a classification change.

Demonetization of gold occurs when the monetary authorities transfer gold from reserve assets to valuables. Holdings of monetary gold by monetary authorities then decrease and valuables show an increase. Sales of monetary gold directly to other monetary authorities are classified as transactions in monetary gold ( F.11 ) .

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:21 - ID#335190)
How do taxpayers stop financing those whose purpose it is to destroy us? First, expose their activity, then demand change.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:23 - ID#266105)

If my spouse's workplace is any anecdotal indication,
the support and disgust with Clinton seems to break along
party lines. I guess if one endorsed the ungent a time or
two the recent detailed revelations calls into question
one's own judgement and character raising a rather animated
defense, anger, denial...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:25 - ID#219363)
More bullish sentiment will not be found soon in my humble opinion. Right now the bulls think someone is going to save the market ( lower rates ) , someone is going to save Brazil, the over-seas markets have been doing okay, there has been a bottom in the US market, the US markets have been rallied somewhat, the President has jumped in to lend a hand, the G-7 will meet to fix everything, etc. This is about as good as it's going to get without an angel floating down from the sky to ring the opening bell on Wall Street.

So in my opinion, it's already time to get back on the bear train.
I hear that train a comin, it's roll'n round the bend ...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:34 - ID#335190)
Rep. Louis T. McFadden ( R. Pa. ) rose from office boy to become cashier and then President of the First National Bank in Canton Ohio. For 12 years he served as Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency, making him one of the foremost financial authorities in America.

He fought continuously for fiscal integrity and a return to constitutional government ( Reference 1 ) . The following are portions of Rep. McFadden's speech, quoted from the Congressional Record, pages 12595-12603:

Rep. McFadden said, "They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; the rich and predatory money lenders.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 12:55 - ID#431200)
Rio Algom Ltd., Noranda Inc. and Teck Corp. said they plan to develop Peru's $2.2 billion US Antamin
Wednesday 16 September 1998Canadian trio plans to develop Peru mineThe Vancouver SunRod Nutt, Sun Business Reporter Vancouver Sun with Bloomberg Rio Algom Ltd., Noranda Inc. and Teck Corp. said they plan to develop Peru's $2.2 billion US Antamina copper-zinc mine, a shot in the arm for a government reeling from retreats by foreign investors this year.

The companies have spent $100 million so far on Antamina and have until today to confirm if they will develop the deposit.

The project -- one of the world's biggest mines, expected to produce 600 million pounds of copper and 360 million pounds of zinc a year over a 20-year mine life -- had been placed in doubt by falling metals prices and global market declines that threatened financing for such large-scale minerals projects.

Antamina, one of Peru's largest mining projects, is crucial to the country's future. The government, still smarting from delays in two other major mining projects and its massive $3 billion Camisea gas project, needs the investment to help finance its large current account deficit.

Peru expects to end the year with a gap equal to 6.5 per cent of its $65-billion economy.

"It will be a great source of income to the country which will improve the trade balance," said Gilbert Chauny, a mining analyst at Interfip brokerage in Lima. "The consortium could be exporting some $800 million a year once it goes into production."

Antamina, located in the Andes 385 kilometres northeast of Lima, is the second-largest planned investment in the country's history after Camisea. It is one of several large copper projects expected to enter production in coming years to boost the country's ranking among the world's major copper producers.

Peru is Latin America's second-largest copper miner after Chile and the red metal is its largest export earner.

Rio Algom, along with then-partner Inmet Mining Corp., won Antamina in 1996 with a bid of $20 million and a promise to invest $2.52 billion in the project over five years. In May, Inmet sold its stake in the project to Noranda and Teck.

Although copper's three-month price has plummeted to 77 cents a pound from $1.04 a pound in July 1997 and zinc to $1,038.50 a metric ton from $1,658.50 in the period, the consortium continues to view Antamina in a positive light.

"It is a world class deposit," said Mike Lipkewich, senior vice-president of mining for Teck Corp. "It does have a relatively high grade in comparison to other deposits around the world that could be considered for development."

Asked about declines in copper and zinc prices, he said: "Historically, [metals prices] have been cyclical. Hopefully, they will have recovered by the time Antamina reaches commercial production."

Construction of the mine should take three years, he added.

Lipkewich said the group of three Canadian mining companies is still coordinating financing for the project, in a combination of loans and equity.

"The three shareholders will invest their own funds as well as borrowing money," he said.

The consortium has outlined a $2.2 billion cost for developing the mine, including the $100 million already spent and a penalty of $180 million for not meeting the investment commitment, officials said.

Among the multilateral financing institutions expected to provide financing for the project are Export-Import Bank and Germany's KFW.

Representatives of the companies and banks that would help finance Antamina met with energy and mines ministry officials Monday and company executives were due to arrive in Lima today to formally confirm they will develop the project.

The mining companies were expected to formalize their commitment to the project by signing a 15-year tax stability contract and a sales tax drawback accord with the government. Rio Algom and Noranda each own 37.5 per cent of Antamina, which was sold by state-owned Centromin Peru SA, and Teck holds a 25-per-cent stake.

Initially, Vancouver-based Teck had agreed to take a one-third interest in Antamina but but in June scaled back its interest.

Teck president and chief executive officer Norman Keevil said at that time that the decision didn't reflect the company's interest in the property but rather a commitment to a strong balance sheet.

"The 25-per-cent participation level is more appropriate for Teck and it will help us maintain that strength," he said. "We could have handled the whole one-third but we felt it better to maintain some flexibility."

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:04 - ID#232390)
Before Greenspan and Rubin speak, a little starlight to croon bye....
Since I have not been burned at the stake as yet, for experimenting with Shellers science of the Stars, there are a few predictions I would like to make based solely on Astrological phenomenon.
If you took the gamble to read the post I submitted yesterday, and let it steep just a bit, you already recognize a few predictions there among the thicket I offered; for your amusements ( interest rates will go down by the end of the month... ) .
Today I shall endeavor to slip a little further out on the Astrological limb and well see just how amusing this crafty craft can be, shall we? Please understand this is all highly goofy for me to indulge in. I am yet a pledge to this Art and my Kitco posts of this week are, at best, an intrigue to be left with empty commuter coffee cups and ruffled newsprint rolling gustily in the canyons below your office window, not, I shall caution, to be discussed with anything less than the curious musing you busy market analysts are so wittily quippish to afford the rest of us standing beside you on these golden gallows; you who lurk and chit chat here in the electric age of Kitkopia. Let this be our quiet little giggle then, shall we?

 Stay away from silver for the next week, unless you enjoy heartburn.

 Gold flat or down the rest of the week with some enthusiasms on Monday the 21st.

For the next month, until the ides of October, our loco transiting Saturn, in realtime, and bringing everything down in the COMEX second house of money, will be standing up against the Uranus, in the eighth house of COMEXs birthchart; opposing.

Uranus, the planet of sudden death and earthquakes, electricity and uprising, zealots and whirlwinds; is in the eighth, of death and taxes, the publics money, bankruptcy and loss.

In another chart this wouldnt necessarily be significant, perhaps some unexpected gloominess and despondency, However, in the case of COMEX Saturn right now is sitting in his second house. As we learned yesterday the second house is the house of money, the storehouse of VALUE.

Saturn, that saturnine leadhead, that God of anxiety and cynics, paupers and pigs, that boss of recession and sadness and woe now sits in the second and counts on the floor.

Its all a bit confusing, I realize, what with interest rates going down later this month and gold not responding to the galactic heights one might necessarily imagine, you may see some frustrations taking root in the market. Dont be discouraged. If one were to construct a doom and gloom scenario for the COMEX and NYSE, I would submit that after this month of dour tidings, the erratic rachetting downwards, you will have been prepared for an October 14-16 KRUNCH of global proportions.
Consider it sort of a finale in this slight downturn were about to see in the metals and equities over the next month. Youll see alot of contradictory noise both ways in either market but the over all indicator, Astrologically speaking is to the Negative; as far as I can fathom.

Well I think thats about enough entertainment for one session. If events in time prove the prognostications of today and yesterday to be interesting Ill try it again next Ides.
Until then, I offer you my
Best Regards,

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:09 - ID#373284)
RR is a lying putz...he supports the IMF and the IMF is garbage and operated by
garbage...honest money is the answer...plain and simple without any fancy words...uh and silver...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:09 - ID#35571)

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:22 - ID#410194)
@Puetz (Stock market crash update)
We are now in the middle of the week, please let us know where we stand in the 2500 to 3500 points drop in the Dow this week and when will panic, hysteria and blood-in-the-streets become widespread.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.


Steve Puetz

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:22 - ID#317193)
Gollum...AG better tell the folks a rate cut is coming....
but he will market will not be happy. when? How?


(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:22 - ID#317193)
Gollum...AG better tell the folks a rate cut is coming....
but he will market will not be happy. when? How?


Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:35 - ID#377196)
More on Wanniski
After reading all the articles by Jude Wanniski on gold and Greenspan
it seems that he thinks Greenspan is responsible for the worlds problems
by not maintaining the price of gold at the $350 level.

As I undrstand it Greenspan has not supplied enough liquidity ( money )
to keep the international economy going. His fighting inflation and
being blind to the real problems are the cause of the worlds' problems.

He thinks the US needs to go on a gold standard so the other currencies
can anchor to something reliable.

The $350 price is interesting. That is about 10 times the 1932 level.
So it would seem that stock prices and real estate in particular need
to adjust to this new price of gold. If that is the price that is
chosen to back the US dollar, gold stocks are the place to be.

In all the developing countries real estate prices have been coming down. When I see real estate prices in the Seattle area I am happy that
I don't own any. My girl friend sold her house this July. I think a
buying opportunity is about 3 to 5 years away in the US for good
house values. In the mean time we plan to make money in the golds.

I hope this works out as planned. As I understand things it should.

As always, one makes ones bets and takes ones chances.

Thanks, GD PS I expect gold stocks to trade sideways for a while.

Then resume their upward path as gold rises strongly into next year.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:39 - ID#347235)
Rubin is NOT A PUTZ my wife say a putz is the best part of a man, lets not degrade putz's SHALOM to you

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:39 - ID#269409)
@ TOlerant re RR and AG
Watch it Tol with those "RR is a lying puetz..I mean putz" comments. Some of us could make hay with that!

ednesday September 16, 1:25 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

INSTANT VIEW-Dow eases, Greenspan avoids rate hint

NEW YORK, Sept 16 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrials eased off their highs minutes after Fed chief Alan
Greenspan failed to drop hints of possible rate cuts in his speech to Congress.

Greenspan was presenting his testimony to the House Banking Committee Wednesday afternoon.

The following comments are from U.S. stock analysts:

-- ROY BLUMBERG, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT JOSEPHTHAL & CO: "I don't think you are going to get your hint of a
rate cut here, and I think he still prefers to stay with the status quo.

``We will learn a little bit about how Greenspan and Rubin think of the global environment. Greenspan will do an excessively good job of
dancing around the pin. We are giving some ground back won in anticipation of the comments,'' Blumberg.


-- ``Greenspan is not talking about lowering rates and I don't think the Fed is going to be bullied into lowering rates. I think the bond market
and market pundits are sadly mistaken if they think the Fed is going to lower rates to please us.''

`` ( Greenspan and Rubin ) are acknowledging the seriousness of the problems, they're not masking them at all. It appears to be a clarion call to
worldwide economic and political leaders to not begin capital contraints, to leave the system open, to not close off their economies,'' Bleier


-- ``By implication ( Greenspan ) is staying with the neutral policy bias announced September 4 at Berkeley. The Fed still sees equal balance in
risk between too much future growth and too little.''

"Markets had jumped to the premature conclusion the Fed was ready to move immediately. The stock market, which was more speculative in
the direction of a quick easing, will suffer ( more than bonds ) .

``Greenspan still makes it possible the Fed will move later in year but there is no sense of urgency. The Fed will not do anything about it
unless domestic growth is affected by the feedback effect,'' Jones said.


"The market became overly optimistic that because the Fed had moved from a tightening stance to a neutral stance, the Fed would ease soon.
They might not ease on September 29 ( the next FOMC meeting ) ...If he eases rates, it is in response to dire global economic conditions.

``We are forecasting a rate cut by end of the year, either in November or December. The Fed indicated they are in neutral stance but they
have a few more steps to take ( before easing ) . Greenspan moves slowly.''

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:41 - ID#373403)
Like I said
Greenspan is still fearing inflation. Even with Rubin, the enforcer, to help Greenspan along, he will not be bullied.

This is a positive for precious metals as we stand on the razors edge of recession and inflation. It is a negative for every other aspect of your life from your job to your consumption habits.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:42 - ID#254321)
Gold and the US dollar
Chrisophilos: Interesting comment you made about revaluing the price of gold in US dollars. AG knows that the only way the FED can really effectively control the value of the US dollar is through the manipulation of the price of gold, since the gold market is much thinner that the US dollar market. I find it interesting that an 'obsolete' currency such as gold is grudgingly acknowledged as a key item in the valuation of the dollar.

My question to the banker and financial types on Kitco is whether AG would willingly let the price of gold rise. My intuitive guess is that first and foremost what he wants to do is expand the money supply. If the price of gold rises as a consquence, he may accept that. But he would very likely concolude that simply biddding up the price of gold would be counterproductive. Don't want to cause a gold market bull that might panic the fiat currency addicts. The last thing you want to do with a fiat currency is put the spotlight on that hated commodity, gold.

Why would AG expand the money supply? Isn't he worried about risking another 1929 fiasco fueled by a loose FED policy? I think he is guessing that the Clinton crisis will hold the markets down enough to prevent the bubble crash. He is also hoping ( I think ) that foreign investment will taper off as US interest rates drop ( slightly ) .

All depends on South America and Japan doesn't it? We are playing Russian roulette with our world fiat currency system. Will the US get hit this time or won't they? My personal opinion is that our markets/economy would have to survive for nearly 2 years before we are free and clear deflationwise -- until 2010-2015 when inflation is sure to return in a big way.

Tall order.

We can forget squeaking by if AG slips up, or for sure if he resigns. Even a master like AG could make a mistake when the stakes are

as high as they are right now.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:47 - ID#347235)
Remember the good ol' days when Paul Volker was Fed Chairman. Interest rates were higher and we all made money?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:48 - ID#344239)
wasn't it last year that Germany flooted the trial baloon on raising the price of their gogd?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:49 - ID#373284)
RETIRED SOLDIER, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...
O'tay...the only thing wrong with your premise is that you mentioned "man" and I do not think RR fits the bill...oops...poor choice of's this...RR is one of the zeniths of hypocrisy...uh huh...

Have a great trip man...gulp to ya and yours for a safe journey...uh huh...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:52 - ID#335190)
eptember 16, 1998

FOCUS-Banks form group to negotiate with Russia

LONDON, Sept 16 ( Reuters ) - A group of 25 large banks was formed on Wednesday to negotiate with Russia over its forced debt restructuring.

"We are aiming at getting a collective voice that would have a dialogue with them ( the Russian authorities ) about getting something sensible," a banking source close to the negotiations told Reuters.

There has been growing concern foreigners might be treated less favourably than domestic investors as Russia restructures around $40 billion of short-term rouble debt. Of that amount, foreigners hold roughly $15 to $17 billion.

"An agreement was reached to approach the Russian government jointly to negotiate more favourable terms," the source said.

The group, which has not adopted a formal name, met today at the London offices of Japanese investment bank Nomura. It includes Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse First Boston, sources said.

Officials at Nomura declined to comment.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:53 - ID#377196)
Rate cuts
My post yesterday mentioned that I thougt if Greemspan cut interest
rates it just might signal that something is really wrong with the
US economy. Looks like he will not be lowering rates.

The stock market won't like that. Greenspan doesn't care. He knows
they are coming down anyway.

There are other ways of getting the international economies going.
Just read Wanniski. Japan can raise interest rates and reduce taxes.
That is what they should do. Cutting the differential in interest
rates between Japan and the US is up to Japan. It will help gold
and make the gold carry and the yen carry obsolete.

I think they will do this next month. Don't know why. Just think
it will be time to do so. Then watch gold soar.

Thanks, GD

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:53 - ID#373403)
Game Theory
Each of the large institutional investors stares nervously at each other. Not wanting to precipitate a stampede for the exit but not wanting to get trampled in one either...................What to do, what to do!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:54 - ID#43460)
QT, confusion in the stars
Sounds like Saturn's up to Uranus in Taurus. I would instead look to the wise men of the East to see if Bananaus stays ex Officio and hedge accordingly, buying Aurum and Argentum with caution. IMHO

(Wed Sep 16 1998 13:55 - ID#347235)
You may have a valid point RR looks like he could be AC/DC SHalom to you and Miss Lois thanks you for the kind words, she is already over there and has rented a house, bought a Mercedes, I hope I still have some money left!!!!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:00 - ID#373284)
LGB, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Cuervo of course...heh...heh...heh...HAY you say
RubinstilskinHmmmmmmmI have heard of these stories of making hay into goldhow fitting and not even a plumber in the houseHmmmmmmmmmm

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:05 - ID#284255)
More from the Y2k Weatherman
If you missed Monday's post on "What About the Phones?" it
is archived here:

A subscriber responded to the Monday post with the following...


Dear Y2k Weatherman,

I worked on the MCI Y2k project until May of this year when the budget
was cut and all 90 of us at the Project Management Office were laid off.
They're not going to be ready. I've heard conservative estimates that
they're a year behind schedule and that's only Mission Critical

You can't use my name, even my screename because it's recognizable to
folks who know me. Just wanted you to know that cashing out after the
WorldComm merger is paramount in the exec's minds. Not Y2k.


MCI Insider


// Y2k Weatherman Comments //

I have no reason to disbelieve the email above. I worked at MCI. I
know people who where laid off in their Y2k Program Office and the
MCI/WorldComm merger isn't going to benefit the Y2k effort in any way.
Same thing for all the other telecom mergers like mega GTE and Bell
Atlantic deal.

Y2k is serious folks. Corporate America is WOEFULLY unprepared. I've
seen quite a few "lipstick on a pig" status reports going to executive
management around here. I've nearly been fired for trying to stop a
few of them. I've learned my lesson about being a whistle blower.

Yesterday, the VP of Operations in the business unit I support as a
Y2k consultant wandered by my Dilbert sized cubical. He was waiting
for one of the marketing execs who has an office behind my cube to get
off the phone.

Here is how the conversation went:

VP: "Sooo, hows that Y2k project going?"

Me: "Well, sir, we're making some progress. We do have a lot less to
worry about since the XXX department is no longer part of our division
thanks to that last reorg."

VP: "Yeah, we should have sold off that department or just closed it
down. We simply can't cost justify spending money to ensure they are
Y2k compliant."

Me: "I'm just glad our product inventory is much smaller now. We've
got quite a load on our plate, but thanks to the reorg we have a
fighting chance at getting done."

VP: jokingly, but slightly uncertain now... "We have a year and a
half left. You got *plenty* of time!"

ME: I mumbled some politically correct response and the VP walked
into the marketing execs office.

A YEAR AND A HALF LEFT? Is this guy is calendar challenged, or what?

We only had a year and a half back in JUNE! This is a typical
executive response to Y2k. "We have PLENTY OF TIME." This excuse has
just about run its course. The party line on many corporate Y2k
projects was COMPLETE ALL CODING BY Dec 31, 1998. This was to allow
the entire year of 1999 for testing. [This was AT&T's goal.]

We're heading into 4th Quarter 1998. Will the coding be done? It is
time to start asking. Any large Y2k project that is still making code
revisions to mission critical systems in 1999 is in serious trouble,
especially if they had a corporate schedule to complete coding in 1998.

In Y2k work, the proof is in the testing. Fixing the code is barely
half the battle in most cases. Testing is the key to success.

The Y2k Weatherman
( c ) 1998 Y2k Watch

Work in progress.
Lots of new urls appearing and being shuffled.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:14 - ID#373284)
RETIRED SOLDIER, would not work so be...
Greetings!!! Hope all is well and have a lovely trip to Europe...keep me posted and such when you get there...just spoke with Fred an hour ago...He and Yvette are address duly noted and saved...Garmisch to look at maps...uh huh...

Gulp and a puff to ya and yours from the Island that is Long...


(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:17 - ID#26350)
What AG said? Also Saturn rules mining, not a bad rulership if you like gold....
Didn't Greenspan say "We must...ease...the pain in the world's economies?". When I heard the word "ease" I jumped a foot at least. Or maybe it was subliminal imagination. I bet he is going to cut, or he is just teasing? Now that he plays tennis with his cell phone at his left ear, I know am not ambidexterious enough to play in his guessing game.
Astro buffs: Don't forget that Saturn rules the underground world of mining and metals, not just what sometimes is said to be misery, lead, etc., in life. Always been my favorite planet probably because of its natal position in my ninth house under the influence of an exalted moon, hence my love of rocks and mines and geology at least from an academic standpoint. Also bewary, as nothing is all bad or good in its effect, since as time passes all is relative on the level of change and diversity. The fundamentals too are everywhere though--in all the astrophysical equations, whether you are a physicist, an astrologer, seer, predictor. Economically, how you will succeed is to buy cheap and sell when the price is more dear. Remember, never bet the farm on any theory, only speculate with what you can afford to loose, but always speculate if you can really afford it, since what is life if you don't take a chance? Risk is everywhere really, necessitating courage. When you have so much of something that you can share it, then sell some of it for a profit if you can. When you purchase commodities and/or shares, you must ask as Rick Rule does in regards to the profit and the selling side of buying: Ask: "To Who?" like the wise old owl in the forest. "To who, to who, to who?" I think there may be tax loss selling soon--but then the DOW market has gone back up to a flat level from Jan 1.
Bob Bishop is saying we probably hit the bottom in mining shares in August. That the majors move first, then the juniors. Then coins follow, don't they?

Gandalf the White
(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:29 - ID#433301)
Gollum --- Question
How deep can the INDU Yellow Sub go today ?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:30 - ID#348286)
@HaHaHaHaHa --- Here World, Stick-it up your A...........
Fed cannot help world with US rate cut-StLouis Fed

NEW YORK, Sept 16 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank cannot restore stability to a troubled world economy with a cut in the 5.50-percent federal funds rate.

``Many are calling on the Fed to reduce interest rates to calm the market. Some argue that cutting rates in the United States will promote a more healthy financial and growth environment abroad, will ease the pressing financial problems in Russia, and so forth,'' Poole told a regional meeting of the National Association for Business Economics ( NABE ) .

The speech was also available in New York.

``The fact of the matter is that with one policy instrument the Federal Reserve cannot do all of these things,'' added Poole, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) this year.

Poole dissented in favor of an immediate tightening in May, on concern rapid money growth may fuel inflationary pressures.

Poole did not dissent at the June 30-July 1 meeting, the last one for which FOMC minutes are available.

The St. Louis Fed president cautioned that ``any attempt to pursue other objectives'' than U.S. price stability ``would only add to world financial problems.''

Poole stressed the FOMC has only one monetary policy tool, the federal funds rate or overnight interbank lending rate, to influence the U.S. economic performance. The funds rate has been at 5.50 percent since March 1997.

Poole also stressed the Fed's mission is domestic and not international.

``Improving growth in Japan and elsewhere around the world is an important objective. It is just that the Federal Reserve does not have the policy instruments to further this objective,'' Poole pointed out.

The St. Louis Fed president also admitted that, if foreign developments were to hurt the real side of the U.S. economy, the Fed would consider adjusting policy accordingly.

``If financial turmoil in the world threatens to depress the U.S. economy, then adjustments of U.S. monetary policy is appropriate and the Fed will make adjustment when the case for it is clear,'' Poole said.

Financial markets have speculated the FOMC may lower the funds rate as early as September 29, at its next meeting.

But Poole also stressed the Fed is still a long way from getting evidence of a slowdown that would justify an easing.

``There does seem to be a substantial amount of room to time these adjustments so as to further the objective of stability in growth and employment,'' added Poole, who said the Fed seeks a stable U.S. economy, with a sustainable growth rate and ``neither inflation or deflation.''

Poole noted ``the most important contribution the Federal Reserve can make is to maintain price stability at home and the economic stability that accompanies the achievement of that goal.''

Poole further answered market calls for a prompt Fed easing by saying markets should focus on what the Fed focuses on to chart monetary policy -- the U.S. fundamentals.

``The Fed is concentrating on the fundamentals. If the market is correct in judging that the fundamentals will require an interest rate adjustment, then, as the data arrive and future prospects change, the Federal Reserve will indeed change interest rates in the anticipated direction,'' Poole explained.

``The market should have confidence the Federal Reserve will adjust the federal funds rate up or down as required by emerging developments,'' he added.

The St. Louis Fed president further emphasized the Fed is under no pressure to move on rates soon.

``The Federal Reserve does have the luxury of waiting to be sure that the fundamentals do indeed point in a particular direction,'' Poole said.

Poole admitted some extraordinary circumstances -- such as the stock market crash of 1987 or a banking or liquidity crisis -- may set the Fed in motion.

``The Fed needs to adjust the funds rate from time to time, but not day in and day out,'' he concluded.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:33 - ID#335190)
We, the People, are at fault for being passive and allowing this to continue.






IF YOU DON'T DO IT NO ONE ELSE WILL! Many Congresspeople want to make this change, but can't without the support of the people.

the economy will be strong, and we can keep our Constitutional rights, liberties, and freedoms.

Congress consistently defeats balanced budget amendments. In the past 30 years, Congress has raised our taxes 56 times and balanced the budget only once.

We need the sound banking system our forefathers wanted us to have.

These states and a few honest Congresspeople are powerless until all Americans become informed and demand change.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:35 - ID#347235)
Garmisch is 60 mi SE of Munich,160 Mi SW of Stuttgart, 30 mi NE
of Innsbruck, one of the truely beautiful spots in the world!! Winter Olypics have had events there at least 4 times.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:44 - ID#404410)
This is scary!
They've said nothing to restore my confidence. Rubin, Greenspan, and Summers sitting around chuckling at various statements. Yet the markets seem relatively unconcerned.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:49 - ID#119358)
@May God Bless........
Representative Bernard Sanders of the Great State of Vermont, the only MAN on the Banking Committee who has figured out the IMF/Investment Banking/Mob Factions/Politico Thieves conspiracy. Go get 'em've got it straight.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:50 - ID#29048)
Greenspan Says No Coordinated Rate Cut In Works

(Wed Sep 16 1998 14:56 - ID#275252)
Sanders's firing HEAVY guns
Sanders ( Vermont ) had Greenspan directly in his sites just before the video feed was cut on all channels. What did Greenspan say?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:00 - ID#240288)
PPT Alert--Clinton News Conference

Time to go long the S&P? Let's see if the pattern holds.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:07 - ID#35571)
Greenspan and Rubin's speech basically indicated that their priorities lay with the domestic economy and the global economy in that order.

Which of course means they will pretty much discount the global economy. No rate cuts unless and until the US economy pretty well heads south.

Continued strong dollar, continued pressure on gold.

The market had pretty well anticipated as much, and had only a small decline upon hearing that reduced interest rates were most likely not forthcoming anytime soon.

Back to Jeil's charts.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:09 - ID#35571)
Greenspan and Rubin's speech basically indicated that their priorities lay with the domestic economy and the global economy in that order.

Which of course means they will pretty much discount the global economy. No rate cuts unless and until the US economy pretty well heads south.

Continued strong dollar, continued pressure on gold.

The market had pretty well anticipated as much, and had only a small decline upon hearing that reduced interest rates were most likely not forthcoming anytime soon.

Back to Jeil's charts.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:13 - ID#232390)
Salutations Lakshmi I pranam at your lotus feet and offer thanks and praise ~
Salutations Lakshmi I offer you pure water in deep mountain pools and fire raised of ghee ~
Salutations Lakshmi I remember your mother daily she asks after your health; offers love and light.

Saturn is, of course, the Mining God. You are right about this. But he is not well disposed at the moment. True he sits in the money ~ second house ~ of the COMEX , and under any other circumstances, say if we were getting positive reinforcement from the luminaries, sun or moon, I would believe this to be a strong foundation for the metals, but he is not. He is experiencing the opposition from Uranus in the eighth from 9.16 - 10.14 reaching exact degree around the end of September ( right around the time I believe rates will drop and the pressure will start to ease ) .
True Saturn is in the early degrees of the Bull, Taurus, isnt necessarily bullish as it is actually in a cozy trine with its natural place in Capricorn, However, I base my suppositions on the fact that Uranus is the ruler of the COMEXs ascendant... too much for this forum to be concerned with. I merely distill this, it is less time consuming.
Ill see you all next month.
Best Regards,

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:22 - ID#290172)
E-Mail to Banking Committee Chairman

Dear Chairman Leach,

Representative Saunders spoke for a number of us when he asked, "Why would anyone continue to pour money down the IMF rat hole?" As the IMF's Articles forbid using the currency of any country that has balance of payments problems, one can not but wonder what this is really all about!

Just keep pouring money in, keep debt growing at x% a year and eventually it will all come right?

Sir, I do believe the Emperor is unclothed. Might that simple truth be our starting point?

Should the opportunity arise, please thank Representative Saunders for his purposeful passion. It was a fresh breeze.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:23 - ID#222231)
ALL-Sanders has guts and put the unholy trio in a box.
Makes one wonder what the hell is going on in our virtuous halls of the treasury and the fed. Sanders was calling the IMF and their policies an utter failure in every instance in the past and would continue to fail in the future and why the unholy trio would want to continue in failed policies. AGs response, "I don't agree with your assessment of the IMF".

I think that now we will all see what Congress will do. Will they continue to fund the IMF? I hope not. If not what will the unholy trio do to bail out their banking buddies if Congress does not give them what they want so desparetly. Notice how they stopped airing the questioning when the unholy trio started squirming?

Stay tuned.

God Bless Sanders!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:26 - ID#410194)
Thank you very much for the bunch of valuable links that you shared with us yesterday.

You are very generous.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:26 - ID#119358)
@Rep. Bernie Sanders is OUR MAN!!!! we found him.
Here is the humble text I just sent him by e.mail:

May God give you continued strength in your brave fight to stop Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, Soros, Clinton, the Investment Bankers, the foreign politicos who steal the funds, et al. from continuing our government's terrorization of the world's economies with the dollar. In their quest to dictate economic policy throughout the world, they have literally destroyed emerging economies, as well as, many industrially developed countries. These men distribute dollars as a drug supplier would introduce crack cocaine to children. They have identical motives.

My best to you,
Ronald D. James

The Representative's e.mail address is:

Do send him a note....this Bernie Sanders is for real...Wow!!!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:32 - ID#373403)
The shot heard round the world!
Not only will we not cut interest rates, but we are also relinquishing our authority as the worlds currency reserve provider.

You don't get to just issue the global reserve currency without assuming the responsibility for global financial stability. We increased our national debt over the past few years by selling debt paper primarily to foreign nations. We made promises which we have just absolved ourselves from to keep failing nations from dumping their treasury holdings.

We have now officially taken an isolationist stance after promoting globalization for so long. Greenspan and Rubin, for better or worse, has told everyone that the self interest of the United States is paramount and everything else is secondary.

I would expect other nations who were looking for American leadership in the global financial crisis to be very disapointed and betrayed. I would also expect the wholesale dumping of foreign held Treasuries to begin. Especially with the great prices such a sale would bring in. There will be a rush to be first so as to get the best prices.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:32 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' gulps and to the matter at hand...YES...he let those
mealy mouthed bastards have it front and center...and CNBC cut away... what a load...actual reality suks right...NOT! and if this dimwit Clintler keeps saying he is representing the American people one more time I will gag...

AG...Rubinstiltskin and that Summers dripp...what a bunch of pasty faced liars...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:44 - ID#240248)
Why Devalue?
Why would AG devalue now? When Japan collapses the US will take a still strong dollar and reflate Asia via loans. The US will be in direct competition with the Euro and to deflate now would be contrary to its best interest today.

Soros wants us to fund the IMF to float Russia because he has lost his butt there and needs a serious shot of cash to recover.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:46 - ID#119358)
The CNBC program director's arse will be called onto the carpet this evening.....for not cutting away from Bernie Sanders' effective attack on the T-Boys. This will infuriate GE management. Well, their boo-boo is our gain......finally some fair reporting, albeit accidental.

Do write Bernie Sanders...he needs to know of his support. He has picked a fight with Goliath....what a man!

G&P to YA!!! and to all Kitcoites who write Bernie!!!!!!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 15:57 - ID#229207)
You say deflation, I say inflation. Let's blow the whole thing up!
Greenspan sees deflationary forces

WASHINGTON, Sept 16 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday that the financial crisis that
began in Asia was continuing to fuel deflationary pressures and
that such forces were moving toward the U.S. economy.
"I would certainly say that in East Asia and increasingly
in the rest of the world, deflationary forces are continuing to
emerge," Greenspan said during the question-and-answer session
of his testimony to the House Banking Committee.
"There is no evidence of which I'm aware of which suggests
that the process, which began somewhat over a year ago, has
stabilized," he said. "Indeed, I think that clearly has been
moving in our direction."
Greenspan reiterated comments made earlier this month in
Berkeley, Calif. that the U.S. economy could not remain an
"oasis of prosperity" while the rest of the global economy was
under so much strain.
The Fed chairman said the American economy was basically
solid but he added: "There are really the first signs of
erosion at the edges, especially in manufacturing."
( ( -- Washington newsroom +1 202 898-8310, fax +1 202
898-8383, ) ) REUTERS
U.S. not seeing deflation -- St. Louis Fed's Poole

ST. LOUIS, Sept 16 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. economy is
experiencing downward pressure on prices and outright deflation
in agricultural products prices, but modest overall inflation
is continuing, said William Poole, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

"I don't think we have general deflation facing us," Poole
told reporters after addressing the local chapter of the
National Association of Business Economists.

This is exactly what happening in the 1920s. There was disagreement as to whether or not deflation was becoming a problem and the consensus was that inflation was more of a threat and that the current monetary policy was too lose. History later showed that it had been to tight.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:04 - ID#344225)
@ The scene RE: PPT at work again
Ten minutes before The President took the podium
The Dow was at minus 60. After the conclusion
of his speech that did not touch on global
financial matters, the Dow recovered nicely to
+62. A swing of more that 100 points.

This on a day when Soros reports nothing but chaos
in international markets with one economy after
another being "hit by a wrecking ball".

Can anyone doubt the trend? Go long the S & P
futures when Clinton is about to speak. The
state of the economy de damned. The slush fund
still has perhaps 50 billion dollars left. The
IMF needs 18 billion dollars now. I say let it
come from the RR/WJC slush fund.

Strange that Soros would call for the US to pony
up the 18 billion? No, not when he is two billion
in the hole due to the Russian melt down. He would
like for Congress to "bail him out".

Absolutely unbelievable !

GO CLINTON...Out that is.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:14 - ID#377196)
Bernie Sanders
Just e-mailed Sanders thanking him for attacking the IMF. Mentioned
that he was cut off and asked whether there was a free press in this
Country. ALso asked him to investigate RUBIN and Goldman Sacks as GS
said that they have not lost any money with all that has been going on
and I heard the rumor that they were buying up real assets on the
cheap from foreign countries. Wasn't this insider trading? Please
investigate what is going on with GS and Rubin.

Thanked him again and asked him to support the removal of Rubin and
Greenspan and to support a gold backed currency in the US.

The bankers are robbing the people of this country and all over the
world and need to be stopped.

How's that?

Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:15 - ID#377196)
Bernie Sanders
Just e-mailed Sanders thanking him for attacking the IMF. Mentioned
that he was cut off and asked whether there was a free press in this
Country. ALso asked him to investigate RUBIN and Goldman Sacks as GS
said that they have not lost any money with all that has been going on
and I heard the rumor that they were buying up real assets on the
cheap from foreign countries. Wasn't this insider trading? Please
investigate what is going on with GS and Rubin.

Thanked him again and asked him to support the removal of Rubin and
Greenspan and to support a gold backed currency in the US.

The bankers are robbing the people of this country and all over the
world and need to be stopped.

How's that?

Thanks, GD

Strad Master
(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:15 - ID#250297)
An Update!!??
ALL: For those of us who missed all the fireworks, could someone post up a summary of the heroic statements made by Rep. Sanders? I can't rely on the PC LA Times to do a creditable job of reportage, nor do I want to wait until tomorrow. Thanks.

STUDIO R: Sorry for the long delay in reply to your e-mail. Soon though. Busy. Busy. Busy.

My Dad gets his broken leg cast off in a half hour. Gotta go take him to the appointment. Back later.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:27 - ID#373284)
Realistic, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya...truth of the matter is the vast majority
of the links were supplied by the fin that shares...and some from me and others...your kind words are is where you can see the fin that shares really shine:

give it a bit of time to load...great stuff to be found there...

On behalf of the fin that shares...a gulp to ya for the kind words...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:27 - ID#261252)

I feel the dow jones could just explode upward
on any significant positive news.

Too much money on the sidelines just waiting to
get into the game.

Comment on the "upcoming disaster plan"
I was in the retail coin business during the
1970's when the last total collapse was going
to strike and witnessed many of friends and
colleagues purchase huge amounts of dried
freeze food.I therefor remain somewhat skeptical.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 16:58 - ID#119358)
@gOld dancer............
thank you for sending an e.mail to Bernie. it sounds like you did some good writing! salud!! y G&P to YA!!!

ALL OTHER KITCOITES!!! Send Bernie an e.mail, even if it's just a "I agree with you"...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:01 - ID#412172)
On the lighter side
Although the following URL talks about US ripping off Nazi gold, alogether a dark subject, I could not help being reminded of a fine old movie, circa 1970. A great film from a time when the gold lust was alive and well in USA, Kelly's Heroes, with Clint Eastwood, Telly Savalas, Don RIckles and Donald Sutherland unforgettable as Oddball. Every time I think of the film it makes me chuckle. My comments no doubt not apropos to the news item, but KH was still a great film for Goldbugs! With all this "born again" attention to "Nazi gold" they oughta do a remake.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:02 - ID#253153)
Government acknowledged---Financial crisis in progress
Our president BC, RR and Greenspan acknowledged today the grave and deteriorating global financial conditions and warned the congress to fund the IMF request in full. Greenspan spoke of global deflationary forces being close to home. What does it mean?
1. Our leaders are desperate, seeking a solution.
2. Interest rates ( short and long term ) are about to decline substantially from these levels.
3. The second phase of the bear market is about to resume.
4.Flight to safety will now accelerate.
5.Japanese Nikkei is about to resume it's down trend course.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:05 - ID#410198)
Time to throw some cold water on the Bernie Sanders rant to greenspan...he is not an independent...
he is a socialist...he is just pissed that all those dollars are not going toward some failed social program....sorry guys

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:08 - ID#347235)
E-Mail to Congress
I too have sent one to Bernie Sanders, but I suggest we ALL send to the Leadership as well.

Bully Beef
(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:10 - ID#260119)
Defaltion not inflation. The Fed. Reserve will interfere to save American banks not individuals or
other countries. No man is an island unto himself.OH ! The all important banks who made terrible loans to people who can't afford to pay them back so they might lose millions. The poor banks in countless failing derivatives . The poor banks who taxpayers should rightly should be subsidized by the taxpayer. The poor banks who foreclose because you missed two payments but your gov. will change moitary policy to screw you but save them. OH! This is a free market you say.Banks are free to screw you and gov. is free to screw you and your taxes help them to do so. I don't mind paying taxes to help people but I don't like paying them to help banks who screw you in good times and get the gov. to do it to ( inbad times ) you cause they made STUPID BUSINESS DECISIONS!!!!!
WHEW! I feel better now.

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:15 - ID#242214)
Monetary policy too TIGHT in 1929? Come on.

Does *anyone* here really believe that a 1/4 point increase in rates
created the Great Depression?

Oh, man, I thought this had been thorougly debunked years ago by
Charles Kindleberger.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:16 - ID#377196)
Better spending on social programs than funneling money to the
rich so they can enslave the rest of the world. In this world, the
real world not the virtual world, socialism exists for either the
rich or the poor. Your choice. I'm tired of socialisms for the likes
of Soros, bankers, etc.

Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:19 - ID#377196)
Bully Beef
I agree with you on your last post. I am about fed up with the
goverment/banking cartel.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:27 - ID#410198)
Gold Dancer....My only trouble with socialists is like Bill they confuse and lie...a lot
Bernies statement is not new here is a URL to prove it by a group of left wing groups...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:27 - ID#26350)
QT:Thank you!
Once we pass the Ides of September keep your eye on 10/18/98 ( or the new moon the night before ) for it is the celebration of MahaLakshmi, where we may petition for a great harvest with the fulfillment of many dreams.

Now I must look at Saturn's position again. I like Uranus too. Don't you think they get along? I hear that the outer planets are formed from some ooze that congealed at the outer reaches of our solar system. I am not too up to date on the outer planets, they weren't discovered in my time. However I find them of interest in the modern world. Regards.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:27 - ID#43349)
Our leaders did indeed acknowledge that they are aware of the serious global financial crises.


1 ) They said there were both domestic and global concerns and that domestic concerns must be of a higher priority. In other words the more serious the global situation the more protective of US interests they must be.

2 ) They must continue to guard against inflation as well as deflation. In other words until such time as the US economy should head significantly south there would be no easing of rates.

I think we can thus see that, just as he has said many times, Greenspan is not going to do anything to US rates unless the domestic situation warrants it. They feel that in a time of global crises it is important that the US dollar stay strong. They see this the US as a stronghold to promote stability ( of course they either ignore or do not understand that the strong US dollar is the root cause of the global situation in the first place ) .

A continuing strong dollar policy, I am sad to say, means continued pressure on gold and a global situattion as before...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:28 - ID#253153)
The second phase of the primary bear market is about to begin
The second phase usually is the longest and the costliest, where stocks respond to basic changing economic fundamentals. What does it mean ?
1. Corporate earnings will vanish in most industries and in most stocks.
2. The big blue chips will now decline substantially.
3. Dividends will be cut.
4. Unemployment will rise.
5. The big monster bear will now show it's power.
6. Interest rates reductions will NOT slow down the runaway deflationay trend.
7. People will not understand why government can't slow the deflationary trend and will vote for new candidates in Nov congressional elections.
8. Political chaos will intensify.
9. The dollar will decline against foreign gold backed currencies.
10. Gold will rise slowly to new high's.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:33 - ID#411259)
..... What Happened? ......

Isn't the Dow supposed to be 3000 today?

I don't get it

Those that call for the imminent collapse of the US equity market, remind me of those mannequins they use in car crashes. What do they call them? Crash Test _______________????

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:38 - ID#119358)
@robnOel........we'll probably never find a man.......
for all seasons. You know, I have serious problems with our staunch "conservative" senators and congressmen from OK...and I'm a pretty red-arsed conservative ( compared to most of my friends ) . In going through Bernie's platform, I really only take serious issue with his stance on military spending cuts and, maybe, a national health insurance plan.

The way I'm looking at him is: here's a guy who will tell Greenspan that he doesn't appreciate what the Boys are doing around the world. It's as simple as that...who else has got the balls to do it?, knowing full well that the Art of Greenspeak often makes a fool out of anyone who challenges AG or RR. Screw Greenspeak...I don't inderstand the language ( because it was brilliantly designed to yield confusion ) .

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:39 - ID#287279)
What happened?
"A foolish man laughs publicly at others, but a prudent man keeps to himself"

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:43 - ID#254321)
Interest rate changes to be based only on Internal US trends
All: First we hear that corporate earnings are looking real bad, then we hear that US industrial production went up a record 1.x%.
We also have heard about all the serious economic problems in the rest of the world -- and the markets go up at the end of the day? Really odd. Perhaps we are in a mini-bull mode where bad news is ignored again -- for a time. Very soon the bear market should return -- as news of WJC's misfortunes multiply.
With regard to interest rates, I can only guess that AG fears that he might go down in the history books as reducing rates -- and hence stimulating the market bubble -- ultimately precipitating a market crash, just like what happened in 1929.
What worries me is that there is little leeway either way. If AG fails to lower rates, he risks making the US dollar too strong, precipitating the collapse of Japan, South America and possibly Canada. We would eventually have no trading partners to buy goods. If he lowers rates too much, he risks inflating the US markets, fueled by 'flight to safety' from foreign markets. Then deflation when the bubble collapses.
History has a tendency to be harsh on those that mold the sequence of events -- if they go sour. I think the bottom line is that we have had a fiat currency for so long, and have so much debt, that the margin of stability between a money supply that is too tight, and one that is too loose is getting smaller and smaller. AG will probably be blamed -- regardless of what he does -- unless he performs a miracle, and we coast into 2002-2003 without a depression. Tall order.
If I was AG, I would wait until the markets are clearly in a bear phase due to the WJC XXXgate problems, and then lower rates a bit ( I don't have a clue how much a bit is ) . Hopefully this would weaken the US dollar somewhat, and reduce our trade deficit a bit, as well as reduce pressure on our trading partners.

I will repeat my question of last week: Anyone know why the US dollar went down nearly 10% in two weeks without precipitating a rise in long-term interest rates? Hysteresis/inertia?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:45 - ID#253260)

Very astute observation. Nuff said.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:54 - ID#253153)
Technical update on the long bond
My long bond chart clearly indicates that a break above 130 will drive yield to around 5% . This level will correspond to $304 on gold. We may get it as early as the end of next week.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:55 - ID#410198)
Studio R...Point made I to jump on so called conservatives who support Fast Track Trading Authority
UN,Nato etc....MAI is a case in which grass root conservatives and socialists agree its a bad deal and are working together to kill it...however I still don't trust them at all

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:56 - ID#287279)
My question for Nicky "Five Dice"
Which is more likely:
DOW at 5000 or DOW at 11,000?
DOW at 3000 or DOW at 13,000?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 17:57 - ID#287279)
My question for Nicky "Five Dice"
Which is more likely by December 31, 1999:
DOW at 5000 or DOW at 11,000?
DOW at 3000 or DOW at 13,000?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:02 - ID#28994)
Welcome aboard....Are you holding any of the pennys up in Vancouver.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:02 - ID#43349)
Fire in the hole!!!
The worst is yet to come:

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:06 - ID#254321)
Kenneth Starr may be closing in on Hillary
All: Either KS is creating a huge smoke screen with no substance, or he has a major breakthrough, Hillary will be put in jail, and WJC impeached. Ambrose-Evans Pritchard suggests that WJC might move to pardon Hillary, and then immediately resign. It is possible. However, how can he pardon Hillary until she has been convicted of a crime? This scenario will take time, and the markets will take it on the chin.



Please splice together before reading.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:06 - ID#294232)
The currency wars are about to begin!
It is the starting of the currency wars that will give gold the legs it needs to move back to the three hundred fifty range! Lets face it the world from an economics standpoint is leaderless and the three stooges basically told us today that they donot know how to fix the problems that exist today! So they are going to do the next best thing, turn their backs on the world and worry about their own backyard.. This move will certainly not sit well with Japan and it would not surprise me to see them liquidate their US Treasuries in an unfriendly manner. The US will not know how to handle the sheer volume of dollars for debt!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:09 - ID#119358)
What would our trade deficit be with a weak dollar? If oil is to be priced at US $25/bbl.? How long would it take the U.S. to mitigate this increased cash outflow for oil with income from exports? The time lag required for the US to internally generate a significant reduction in their oil dependence "deficit" and the time requirement for an off-setting, compensatory gain through export of "cheaper" American goods is probably several years. What is the cost? What will be the damage?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:10 - ID#254321)
Rising Industrial Production
JP: Please refresh my memory. Isn't industrial production a laggin indicator? Isn't there a strong tendency to produce more goods when the profit margin goes down, so that you can main the same total profit? That is what happened to the computer chip industry, the oil industry, and a number of others.

If I remember correctly, just before the great depression, industrial production peaked rather dramatically. Then -- low and behold -- there were all those goods chasing too few customers.

I hate to be this bearish, but we may be seeing in front of our eyes the highest US industrial production for a few years to come.

Lets say we go into a recession, not a depression. How long before AG et al desperately loosen up the money supply, and gold starts to soar? One year or so?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:16 - ID#20982)
May the so-called
"leaders" of the this crazy world have dreams of gold tonight!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:20 - ID#254321)
Good point
Studio R: We need to reduce our oil dependency -- we are consuming a valuable nonrenewable resource that should be used for making plastics and other more practical things than wasting it making our cars go.

What happened to alternative/renewable enery? Solar energy technology has virtually been ignored by our Green VP. Also -- we have 'Zero Point' energy, and the Pons and Fleischman phenomenon, confirmed by MIT and others. P and F just made the horrendous mistake of jumping the gun and calling it 'Cold Fusion' in that Nature article.

The 'Zero Point' energy stuff probably will take 20 years to evolve, unless we have another energy crisis. Solar stuff and wind power technology is fairly well advanceds, and just needs to be dusted off. Don't worry, no matter what the oil industry will do well -- eventually.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:20 - ID#43349)
"I will repeat my question of last week: Anyone know why the US dollar went down nearly 10% in two weeks without precipitating a rise in long-term interest rates? Hysteresis/inertia?"

I think we discussed the yen/carry trade already, but I think your question on points to it again.

If people are selling bonds/treasuries it puts more dollars into the market which weakens the dollar, and by depressing bonds, raises rates.

But this is not happening. So maybe bonds/treasuries are not the issue. As the URL in my post "Fire in the hole" states:

Injured speculators have been forced to buy back Japanese yen and Deutschmarks that were previously borrowed at low interest rates. The more the dollar falls, the more they have to do this.

And of course the nore they are forced to unwind, the more the dollar falls.

It would not be prudent of Rubin or Greenspan to lower rates at this time and throw gas on that fire - - at least until the positions are unwound.

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:20 - ID#242214)
JP says 5% Long Bond?

That's what I'm expecting, for sure.

but I have to disagree with JP's prediction of a "10-15 year"
economic depression. History doesn't jive with this at all.

Even the Great Depression bottomed after three years, and
looking at previous depressions, it is evident that they *all*
fall into a pattern of bottoming after 2-3 years. My theory is
that society as a whole just won't *take* more than 4-5 years
of total misery.

I expect the depression to last perhaps four years, five at
the maximum, with a top of unemployment around 20%. And I
expect to see multiple depressions ( with 1991 being recorded
as the first ) , separated by 5-15 years, similar to the post-
Civil War period - minor crash in 1869, depression from
1873-1878, minor crash around 1884, then second depression from

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:24 - ID#253153)
JTF--Yes, last month (Aug ) industrial production rose 1.7%
Tha report was based on GM workers coming back to work after the long strike. This was one month statistical abberation . In a recession or depression , the government will try to increase the money supply via added reserves, lower interest rates to the banks in order to stimulate borrowing. Unfortunately it's too late. Look at Japan, with borrowing costs of 1% to a qualified consumers, NO ONE is borrowing any money.
The consumer is too scarced and uncertain about the future. You may not know it, but in 1930-1931, 1948-1949 American consumers returned more money to the banks ( via paying back loans ) than they borrowed. In a depression the government will be pushing on a string as they did in the 30's. In addition, banks will be very reluctant to loan money because of their large losses. Everyone with any money left will be seeking safe haven to preserve their capital.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:27 - ID#288295)
Princeton Economics advisory on Gold
Changed today from CAUTION to CAUTION ADVISED on daily trend.Click on 'Global Market View", then on item 4.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:27 - ID#261252)
No I don,t have any Vancouver stocks.At the present I,m
mainly holding RANGY @ GSR

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:27 - ID#119358)
@US cash outflow for imported oil/day=?
approx. $150,000,000/Day

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:28 - ID#254321)
Dollar/Yen carry trade
Gollum: You are right -- I forgot about that. That is why AG did not lower rates. All those derivatives trades going sour out there -- as G Soros so well knows.

My only conceptual problem is figuring out why a flood in US dollars is not making interest rates go up. My only conclusion is that all of those dollars flooding back to the US must be going into US treasuries, hence keeping interest rates down. Once investors tire of buying US treasuries, then interest rates will rise.

Does that sound reasonable? I am not used to thinking of US dollars and US securities as separate disctinct items, but we do have to think that way , don't we?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:31 - ID#430221)
Thanks for the article on the IMF. I agree with the article. I don't
care that it comes from the left wing as you say. The truth is the
truth. I don't like secret organizations as they always favor the
rich over the worker. Let the rich work for a living instead of
stealing money from the honest worker. How dare the IMF impoverish workers around the world at its wim for its own ends: keeping the fiat
money game going by lending money to Nations that can never pay back the
loan without another loan etc. etc.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:34 - ID#373284)
Get Camdesuss!!!
IMF - International Malignancy Foundation...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:35 - ID#240248)
The big difference between now and 1929 is that the consuming population of the US and several other countries in Europe declined dramatically in 1929 ( and for 5 to 8 years after that ) and today the consuming population of the US is set to enter a new high ( so is the consuming population of many Asian countries ) . You are correct in that in 1929 there were too many good chasing too few buyers.

That is not the state of affairs in the US today. We are about the enter the third and largest group of baby boomers entering their prime spending and consuming years. So are most of the good ( read less corrupt ) Asian countries.

Any ideas about the percentage of US businesses dependant on foreign export??? Its less than 20%. And the current percentage of that made up by Asia is very small. It's why we have not been devastated as so many have prognosticated ( wished for ) .

Harry Dent called this correction almost three years ago. He has never waivered. Now he says get back in to the market. We will resume our upward course soon.

I am wondering what the effect of the Euro will be and I anticipate a contest to see which currency can be most loaned to the Asians, the Euro or the dollar. I also hold the golden acquired this year at bargain basement prices in anticipation of the faltering of the USG when Y2K brings their massive system to a temporary but very audible halt. That faltering will spike the price of gold like nothing else going on today.

The only thing that the sale of US Treasuries by the Japanese will do is sink their ship. US Treasuries are one of the last solid assets Japan holds. I don't think they will commit suicide to spite the US. Japan has long term and intractable problems that they must ultimately face and live through. No amount of government intervention staves off reality forever.

I am seeking information on the demograpics of the European Union and will let the group know how they compare the US over the next 6 to 8 years when I get them. It may give us an interesting view into how the two economic superpowers will fare against each other in the short term.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:39 - ID#43349)

It is my contention that we have an unstable global monetary system because there are too many sepearte currencies, each supported by it's own local central bank. It makes not only makes it possible for big time speculators to trade off one currency against another, and currencies against securities, but it is an unstable positive feedback system.

If one currency is a little stronger that the others, wealth will tend to migrate toward the stronger. This in turn makes it even stronger and the others weaker.

Be it gold, or the dollar, or the euro, if there were only one universal currency supported and maintained by a single banking system the speculative attacks woukd not be possible and stability could be maintained.

Do we see California dollars pitted against Dakota dollars? Or trade balance inequity between Illinois and Mississipi leading to currency instability?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:39 - ID#269128)
Clinton's going down spectacularly.....
how long before the Democrats cut him loose?

At this rate they have ruined the next election....the longer they stick up for this loser the longer it will cost them in the years to come.

Bigger question how long before the "funders" ( da funni munni BOYZ ) cut him loose?

Circle the wagons...gonna be a long night....sending out ANOTHER Advance Posse into the futures......

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:41 - ID#290172)
Mea culpa (and you-a culpa too!)
Well, stupid moi! I didn't fully appreciate the manner in which we executed our 'responsibilities' in the global economy.

We shop! Yep! Get out there and shop till you drop and help the world economies bounce back. If they don't make it, it is going to be YOUR fault. You didn't max out all the cards, or you stayed at home and read a ( gasp ) book, or something did something else subversive.

So, if you really care, Mr. Eizenstat expects you to head for the mall and do your bit. Here's how he explained it all to the poor befuddled Japanese-who may have felt that contributing $42 BILLION was a pretty friendly nudge to the neighbors. Not so! Not enough! They've gotta shop too!

"In response to a question about the backlash against American prodding of Japan, Eizenstat said the United States and Europe had their own responsibilities. ( Here it comes-SDRer )

The United States was likely to absorb a huge trade deficit to help Asia recover from its crisis, he said.
( "I don't want a new TV set" hysterical American consumer. "Where have you hidden your Visa card? You have a duty" disgusted Consumer Policeman. )

"Our trade deficit with Japan, our trade deficit with Asia, are going to soar this year. With Japan it may be close to 70 billion dollars," he said. Overall, the United States' trade deficit is predicted to hit 200 billion dollars this year.

"We don't think it's too much to ask others to bear their share of responsibilities as well," he said.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:45 - ID#254321)
Martin Armstrong is worth a read
Silverbaron: Thanks. It is easy for a gold bug to forget that during deflation, all commodity-type goods can go down. Gold is a currency at times, and a commodity at times.

Martin Armstrong is correct that commodities dropped for a time early in the depression, along with gold. It was not until 1932 or so that gold really started to shine. Those who speculated in gold ( equities ) before that time tended to lose, unless they were equally facile in down and up markets. He conveniently left out the part that gold was a good investment -- if bought at the bottom.

Martin Armstrong makes the point that before a depression, smart money will escape into long - term bonds. That may be what is happening right now. But one must be choosy, and buy only 'blue chips' -- securities that will survive the crisis.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:46 - ID#412286)
The market is rising because they came up with a temporary "magic bullet" to allay concerns so news doesnt matter. Remember Asia was a problem last Fall but we got a huge rally..WHY..the "magic bullet" at that time was the IMF. Now it is this big planned confab from Clinton of a meeting of all the G-whatever to consider restructuring the financial structure. In other words big brother is there to save investors again. Since the problems are global ( the dam is bursting ) the spin has to be global to regain confidence. Who knows what they paid Primikov to say he would continue reform and pay debts. This is I believe the last "magic bullet" and thus the end is near but who knows how far the mkt can go. When Abbey Jo Cohen talks of Dow 9300 I think in terms of her knowledge of what is planned as opposed to pure prognostication. But things must really be getting hairy as she previously predicted 10k. INVESTORS OF THE WORLD UNITE BEHIND ( Rubin ) you have nothing to lose but the threat of default...Poor people in third world and taxpayers in the west..let'em eat cake courtesy IMF and WB!!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:47 - ID#255151)
Two Thirds of Americans Unaware of Y2K

Surprising poll shows 68% of Americans
unaware of the Y2K computer problem. Better
make your preparations before that number
changes. Guaran-damn-tee you it will change.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:50 - ID#412286)
Martin Armstrong
Predicted Gold would bottom in 6/98 and the dollar was in a major bull as it has NOW started to go down. There is only deflation because of the dollar up..that is in the process of ending.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:51 - ID#43349)
The thing that turned anotherwise not so bad correction in the markets in '29 into the great depression, rather than just a corrective dip like in '87 wasn't any of those things. It was the collapse of the banking system due to speculatve overexposure. We are not out of the woods yet.
See "Fire in the hole!!!" posted earlier.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:51 - ID#255151)

Kitco mangled that URL. Try again.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:55 - ID#430221)
Greenspan and interest rates and Japan
Here is how it looks to me:

1. Greespan doesn't lower interest rates.

2. This signals Japan that the bond rally is about over.

3. So Japan starts selling more Treasuries on the open market.

4. Greenspan buys most of the Treasuries to increase world
liquidity just like Jude Wanniski says he should and that
makes gold go back up to the $350 to $375 level where it
should be.

5. Gold probably overshoots the mark before being driven back

Let us watch this together.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:56 - ID#277302) response to your 13:42
It wouldn't be solely up to the U.S. to support Gold to $350 but it would have to be a coordinated effort from the "rich countries". Heck, the price of Gold would jump to $350 in 2-3 days simply on one statement by the ECB, imposing a moratorium on any Gold sales from their member states' reserves.

It was, after all, the fear of such sales that drove Gold down to these levels and brought on this devastating deflationary spiral we are presently experiencing. We all have to realize that the "less developed" world, still perceives and dearly values Gold as a store of their wealth, ( just as rising stock/bond portfolios are perceived of in the "developed" world ) so when that wealth is "siphoned out" of these poor people's Gold, they feel impoverished and stop spending, ( just like a stock market correction makes westerners feel impoverished and they stop spending ) ...and to make a long story short, a deflationary vortex develops that indiscriminately sucks in rich and poor alike into a nadir of a 1930's style depression, if our fearless leaders don't recognize the symptoms and take the necessary steps to remedy this contagious and deadly desease.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:56 - ID#240248)
Do you think there is a similarity between the derivatives of today and the speculative overexposure of 29?

By speculative overexposure of 29 are you referring to the practice of multiple margin loans?

Is there a URL for "Fire in the Hole"?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 18:59 - ID#254321)
Harry Dent -- 'The Great Boom Ahead', etc.
Will: I think I have all of Harry Dents books. They are worth reading, because I think he is right that the baby boomer spending cycles in the markets are a major force that has been genrally ignored.

However, I think his scenario is far too 'Rose-colored'. The baby boom itself cannot prevent a depression, it just makes it less likely. The baby boom by itself will not prevent inflation of the US dollar, or credit collapse. The imminent derivatives crisis is independent of the baby boom. Certainly if we weather the next two or three years, we will roar into 2010-2015, where our baby boom spending will peak. What if you apply the baby boom model to Canada, or Australia? They are not doing very well right now. Harry Dent's model is much better at explaining why Japan is in such big trouble. No baby boom buffer.

I think what Harry Dent did was somwhat justifiable in the sense that he sold his whole book based almost exclusively the 'baby boom' effect. I wish he had been a little more scientific, and a little less 'popular' in his style. I'll bet if you call him up, and ask him straight out whether a baby boom by itself can prevent a depression, he will readily admit that he oversimplified.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:03 - ID#43349)
Positive feedback instability
A positive feedback system is one which feeds on itself.

As an example, consider the gold/carry trade. Low lease rates make it lucrative to borrow gold and sell it to raise cash and buy high yield securities. The sale of gold in turn lowers gold prices which makes it even more lucrative because the eventual payback of gold is at lower prices. The decline in price also makes it lucrative to sell short, and the short sales in turn drive prices down even more.

Or the yen/carry trade which amounts to the same thing, except it drives an entire countries currency down. Which make the dollar stronger and the carry trade even more lucrative.

So long as supplies of gold ( or yen or whatever ) last, massive positions are wound up.

But supplies are finite. Eventually the system must slow and unwind. The unwinding feeds on itself...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:05 - ID#277302)
TheMissingLink @ The shot heard... @ 15:32
You hit the nail right on the head with that one mate.... it's not only irresponsible to promote and entrench the U.S.$ as a global monetary reserve, ( and commodity trading standard for that matter ) and then implement and carry out U.S. monetary policy, solely focused on domestic sireeee, it's not only IRRESPONSIBLE, it borders on the criminal.

Night all.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:06 - ID#43349)
Yes I do. Yes there is. Posted at 18:02

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:08 - ID#404130)
bloody blasphemy is what it is alright. Blaming the IMF for all our troubles. Heck, they are only trying to keep the corporate elite as our true and only benefactors in providing jobs for us mere mortals at home and abroad.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:09 - ID#240248)
JTF RE: Harry Dent
The demographics definitely apply to Australia. The population of spending and consuming citizens there takes off dramatically in about four more years. I don't have the graphs handy and don't know what the in between years look like.

Don't know about Canada's population.

The baby boom is just a phenomenon. The growth or decline of a countries population is definitely directly related to the volume and velocity of spending going on there.

I will have an opportunity to speak with Harry soon and I will pose your question to him and report back to you his answer.



(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:14 - ID#254321)
Nonlinear, positive feedback process
Gollum: Too bad so much of our mathematics expertise focuses on linear processes. This is a problem with conventional classical economics. However, if the formulas are known, computer modeling can be used to evaluate the nonlinear behavor -- the critical points. Unfortunately, economic processes are fairly fluid, and not very amenable to classical linear differetnial equation type analysis, or perturbation analysis, which works only very near an equilibrium. Real life is very nonlinear.

I suspect nonlinear analysis base on something akin to the semi -quantum mechanical wavelet analysis will be the way to go -- but this type of economic study is only on the drawing boards.

So -- chaos analysis -- the fibonacci series, etc -- wavelet analysis. But not in time to really be of value in studying our current crisis so nearly at hand.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:15 - ID#269128)
gollum's fire in the hole.
just wondering what the lag is between tallying up new market positions and LIQUIDATION of assets. Just over ten days ago we had 500 point down day..then yen rose ( unwinding ) burped ( waking up ) and things are relatively serene......

tick tock tick tock

Fire's in the Hole.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:15 - ID#43349)
Winding the spring
As we discussed before, booms always lead to busts. Th inherent instability that creates the boom winds up a great deal of energy in the spring which feeds the bust.

Borrowing to buy more builds massive towers of indebtedness.

In '29 the mechanism couldn't stand the strain. In '87 it managed.

The longer the boom, the more monstrous the piper to be paid.

This has been a long one.

In another week or two or three we'll start to hear which big names have become insolvent.

Being insolvent they can not support their clients hedges.

Then we'll begin to hear which of those clients have become insolvent.

And so it goes...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:21 - ID#288295)
Will @ derivatives time bomb
Read this article from Time:

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:21 - ID#335190)
Then all informed Americans can take action and hold their politicians accountable.

The bankers control the media, but can not stop patriotic Americans from using copy machines to distribute information and inform America.

Once informed, people will demand an explanation why Congress allowed this fraud as the media appeared to be independent and investigative, but remained silent on this important issue.

Subject: The Prophecy

Thomas Jefferson once said: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency..............the banks........will deprive the people of all property, until their children will wake up homeless, on the continent, their fathers conquered.........."

Without a word of truth to the American people, all our good faith and credit was pledged as the surety for the debt by the same Congress who created the mechanism that allowed it to occur.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:21 - ID#269191)
JTF and Martin Armstrong
He doesn't know what he's talking about. Bonds went down at the
beginning of the depression. Check out a good book on the crash and
they will point-out that long-term rates spiked-up in the liquidity
crisis created by the crash. It was only after the economy had
obviously tanked that bonds went up. Homestake mining held its value from 1929-1933 and
may have appreciated a bit. The big gains in gold stocks came after
the dollar was devalued and the price of gold was increased in 1933.

Bonds will be a horrible investment in this depression ( if we in fact
go into a deflation ) because the U.S. government will default on its
debt in a serious deflation of the 1929 variety.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:24 - ID#411112)
Gold Dancer...First we need to get rid of the lawyers....ROR could find another job


(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:25 - ID#261252)
I'm always impressed with the thinking on this forum

and would appreciate thoughts on the possibility of

developing nations,such as in Africa & South America

nationalizing their gold mines & reserves should there

be any move to a gold standard such as Russia was


(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:25 - ID#411440)
@ all: LEASE RATES rose slightly from .51% for one month gold
to 0.60% Monday through Wednesday this week. One year lease rates
rose moderately to 1.80%. The slight bump in one month lease rates
indicates a moderate increase in speculative short demand for gold
and parallels out more recent declines in POG. The one year lease
rate increase indicates a troublesome increase in producer hedging
activity. This would suggest that either Australian and Canadian
producers think POG may decline again or they fear a decline in the
USD relative to domestic currencies.

In any case, I wish to refresh your memories concerning my worries that
the surge in gold prices of last week was not the start of the bull.
I stated that with lease rates of 0.5% there was too much liquidity
in the market, and too much advantage to the gold carry to sustain
a spike past $300. With lease rates at .5% and one month treasuries
in the US still at 5.5%, the forward rate was 6%. Too high. Too much
profit margin for the shorts. Lease rates are firming, but they
must blow past 1% to herald our much postponed bull. IMHO
I think this correction in POG still has a ways to go.

I am glad to see kitco up and posting again. Thank you Bart.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:27 - ID#335190)
Congressman Patman re-quoted Thomas Jefferson showing that our founding fathers knew this banking principle very well. "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies...."

"Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power ( of money ) ," he said, "should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."

The American Revolution was a struggle to wrest control of wealth from the Bank of England and to restore the centers of power to the People where it "properly belongs."

The Constitution is specific about the authority of the People, through their elected officials, to control the money, and thus, the affairs of their government. ( Reference 5, P. 32 ) .

Ben Franklin said in his autobiography that the inability of the colonists to get the power to issue their own money permanently out of the hands of George III and the international bankers was [one of] the PRIME reason[s] for the Revolutionary War. ( Quoted in Reference 4 )

Thomas Jefferson stated, "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ( Reference 1, P. 247 )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:30 - ID#43349)
I think you may be right in that something akin to wavelet analysis may be of use at least in identifying certain underlying cycles and fragmentary trading patterns. Creating a dollar out of debt is not all that different from creating a fundamental pair from the vacuum, after all. Nor is indebtedness that much different from a stretched spring.

If one had some measure of the obligations built up in derivatives, short positions, virtual equity wealth, etc. and could compare it to the capacity of the system to withstand the strains of kinetic and potential wealth, one might be able to estimate how close to redline the system was and how prudent to blow odd some steam it might be, BEFORE things got out of hand.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:34 - ID#335190)
The greater part of our monetary stock has been shipped to foreigners.
Why should we promise to pay the debts of foreigners to foreigners? Why should American Farmers and wage earners add millions of foreigners to the number of their dependents?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:35 - ID#43349)
Yeah. Things get kinda noisy ( shouts, running feet ) , then it gets quiet.

Except the hissing of the fuse.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:39 - ID#404130)
I'm surprised they haven't nationalized them already - but I guess it's easier for those governments to let public companies take the risk and then tax them heavily when they have a nice income-producing property.
Saves a lot of bureaucratic expense.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:39 - ID#348129)
@Canadian Banks Getting Hammered --- $80M LOSS SINCE AUGUST
Bank of Montreal reports big trading losses

TORONTO ( CP ) - Shares of Bank of Montreal fell on the Toronto stock market Wednesday after the big bank revealed it had racked up $80 million in net trading losses because of volatile stock markets.

Bank of Montreal shares, up strongly earlier in the day, fell $1.40 to close at $60.75 on the Toronto market. About 1.6 million shares were traded. Shortly before the market closed, the bank revealed it suffered $80 million in after-tax losses - mostly from bond trading - in the current quarter, which began August 1.

"These losses were a result of recent volatility in global financial markets and a contraction of liquidity in corporate debt markets," the bank said.

For the first three months of the year, the bank had net trading profits of $167 million after tax.

The bank reported net profits of just over $1.1 billion through the first nine months of the year and had total assets of just over $229 billion at the end of July.

Last month, CIBC shares came under heavy pressure after that bank warned its third-quarter profits would fall well below analysts expectations because of volatile stock markets and added costs of expanding its brokerage operations on Wall Street.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:41 - ID#335190)
When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there it is.

It [the banking problem] is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon.

It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects are remedied very soon." ( Reference 1, P. 247 )

Napoleon, a sympathizer for the international bankers, turned against them in the last years of his rule. He said: "When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes...

Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain." ( Reference 4 )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:43 - ID#219363)
Tough Love
You have to admire Greenspan's sense of long-term strategy. I've said over and over that I didn't think he'd lower rates, but even I have to admit I had some doubts that he'd hold hard and fast to his guns. I'm glad to see a little pressure hasn't changed anything. Can you imagine what would have happened if Greenspan had raised rates a few months ago when people were calling for an increase ? Yeppie yep, that would have done a number of the economy for sure. For those wanting the FED to lower rates, I've got one question for you - what effect would that have one year from now ? I'm so hopeful that rates will stay stable for a while, so hopeful. Looks like we might get just that.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:43 - ID#348129)
@More Fireworks To Come.........
Clinton Grand Jury testimony tapes will probably be released - vote will be tomorrow with republican majority. He loses his temper numerous times.
Should change public opinion when this performance is viewed..........

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:43 - ID#411440)
@ Silverbaron: Isn't Princeton Economics the old balliwick of
Martin Armstrong, and if so, how reliable are those metal market

( The lease rates on silver are sliding slightly, and that is
not bullish, despite the infamous short overhang )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:44 - ID#288295)
Maybe derivatives are like the old "Mr. Wizard" demonstration.Take ( pick a number ) , say 500 mouse traps and place them in a room so that 90% of the floor is still open floor. On each ( cocked ) mouse trap place a ping-pong ball on the trigger.Next, from outside the doorway, toss in one ping-pong ball in a random direction.How can you tell before hand what the result will be?Now imagine that each of those mouse traps are imploding banks.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:46 - ID#404130)
MoReGoLd (@Canadian Banks
Oh-oh...Get ready for some new fees. John Q. Public is one again called to help yet another great Canadian bank in its time of peril. They will probably also use this as an argument as to why they must form one huge megabank.

Bully Beef
(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:49 - ID#260119)
Watched Nightly Bus. Report Paul Kangas. Two of his guests were very bearish on the Dow and one said
look to gold and oil. There were awkward silences during their discussions. I don't know how many people watch that program but all of them are probably having a scotch right now. it was the most negative I ever have seen that program. Weird actually.It was like reality had set in, but in a sort of Franz Kafka nightmare type way. Thats scary.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:49 - ID#347447)
Ready on the left....
I know I'm jumping in here, not having even scrolled along recent postings, but I had a thought...
Since Clinton is "commander in Chief" ( the phrase sticks in my throat ) of the armed forces, then since it is a court martial offense for superiors to have sexual relations or involvements with those of inferior rank ( a charge for which many soldiers, etc, have been court martialed under the Clinton Administration ) then perhaps we can resolve this entire tawdry episode in American political history by court martialling Clinton.
If the firing squad is not too extreme a measure, perhaps Hillary can have the first shot.

At least an Article 15??????

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:49 - ID#43349)
The biggest risk is from derivatives, which are used to minimize risk.

Y2K will only be a problem if a viable system still exists to be jeopardized by it.

The depression came because of massive chasing after riches.

The higher the climb the farther the fall.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:51 - ID#43349)
The biggest risk is from derivatives, which are used to minimize risk.

Y2K will only be a problem if a viable system still exists to be jeopardized by it.

The depression came because of massive chasing after riches.

The higher the climb the farther the fall.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:55 - ID#411259)
..... Shek & AUH20 .....

Apparently you have taken exception to my observation. Perhaps, instead of throwing snipes at me, you could ask those fellows who called for the Dow to drop to 3000 this week, why it did not, and would they please acknowledge that it did not?

These folks will post the Crash Test Dummy scenarios and collect the accolades you all seem to toss their way, but when it never comes to pass, nobody ever says anything.


PS Sheck
11 and 13 before you ever see the numbers you posted.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 19:56 - ID#288295)

Obviously they spend a good deal of effort in system modeling, but I don't remember seeing anywhere on their site just what their forecasting models are based on, or how they work.

It would be quite easy, it seems to me, to look at their calls in the past and make a judgement on the accuracy therein. My brief exposure ( I don't spend much time at their site ) is that they are pretty good calls on a short-term basis.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:00 - ID#411112)
Mike Sheller..He is Commander in Chief...howver he does not fall under the Military Code of Justice.

I know would of been easy...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:00 - ID#411112)
Mike Sheller..He is Commander in Chief...howver he does not fall under the Military Code of Justice.

I know would of been easy...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:02 - ID#335190)
Will Small Farmers get support ? NO! @ Yes, Factory Farms will get Corporate Welfare.
September 16, 1998

Ailing farm sector may get $4 billion in U.S. aid

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Republican leaders in the House and Senate discussed up to $4 billion in aid for farmers Wednesday -- their first hint at the size of the federal response to a sudden slump in prices and farm income.

Lawmakers want to enact an aid package before Congress adjourns in early October. Republicans, who control both chambers, want to send cash directly to farmers. Democrats tout a multibillion-dollar, election-year boost in crop supports.

Farm groups say several billion dollars will be need to combat hard times that could persist for another year or two. Farm income was forecast to plunge 12 percent this year, the result of tepid demand worldwide in the face of a glut of grain and meat.

"I think you could visualize $2 ( billion ) to $4 billion disaster bill before Congress goes home," said Representative Tom Ewing, chairman of a House Agriculture subcommittee and familiar with aid discussions. "The votes are probably there for that."

Ewing, an Illinois Republican, described the potential package to a meeting of agricultural lobbyists.

September 16, 1998

U.S. plan on animal waste criticized by green groups

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Clinton Administration unveiled a plan Wednesday requiring livestock farmers to halt run-off from mountains of manure generated each year but environmentalists said the rules did not go far enough.

Vice President Al Gore described it as a "common-sense strategy"

Joe Rudek, a scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund. "The plan sticks taxpayers and small growers with the full cost of implementation, while letting factory farms off the hook."

The biggest livestock-feeding operations -- which can have thousands of animals in a warehouse -- would have to produce a detailed plan to curb animal waste by 2003. Smaller farms would face a deadline of 2008.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:05 - ID#411259)
..... Read in Newsweek today .....

In 1996 congress voted to ban smut on the web.

In 1998 congress voted to release smut on the web.

Isn't irony wonderful?


(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:09 - ID#275194)
Commentary from Dan Ascani; He used to work with Prechter until they split

September 16, 1998 05:23 GMT -- From Introductory Commentary in up some time ago. Dan felt the stock Market would keep going up, and Prechter and him parted ways. Ascani was right! He also has an analysis on Gold from a deflationary standpoint that goes back 560 years.

September Issue Of The
Global Market Strategist Some saw it coming. Most did not. Many say it is overdramatizing the
situation to say the global monetary system is dying. Whatever the perception, though, our monetary
system as we know is, in fact, in a state of Supernova, and the repercussions across the globe are

Not to say that investors must now become pessimists because of these times of the worst global
fundamentals since the 1930s. In fact, it seems that whenever we publish analysis that appears "negative"
( is realism negative? ) , we must reiterate our philosophy regarding the fact that we are, in fact, eternally
optimistic that humankind will be able to learn from current events and put into play a system that does, in
fact, work. It is not being pessimistic to observe the fact that, for most of the globe, the monetary system in
force since the gold exchange standard was dropped in 1971 does not work. Neither does it take a
pessimist to observe a death in progress. It merely takes an observer willing to take off the blinders.

Yet, global investors this decade once again decided that they would, in fact, trade with their blinders on,
and trillions of dollars of wealth have been wiped out in the ensuing financial market collapse. Fed
Chairman Alan Greenspan had warned that investors were too optimistic and that-to capsulize-they were
investing with their blinders on. He had, in fact, warned beginning in December 1996 that investors were
"irrationally exuberant," and that they were overly optimistic about corporate earnings.

The simple fact is, the monetary experiment launched in 1971 when the globe dropped the gold exchange
standard ( and the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944 ) did not work. As discussed in intricate detail in our
report, Gold In A Deflationary Economy, this experiment has been one which allows all central bankers of
the world to attempt to manually tweak currency exchange rates and monetary policy instead of having the
gold standard do it for them. What that actually meant, in reality, is that the central banks of the world,
regardless of political orientation, suddenly had great discretion to create or destroy credit at will. The
operative word here is "discretion." Give too much discretion to humankind, though, and sometimes
grave consequences must be paid.

Those consequences, in fact, are now being paid. Yet, the resounding realization that the experiment did
not work will be wonderful information, if accepted and put to immediate use. So, it didn't work-no big
deal. Just get back to business and recreate a monetary system that works for all ( not just the country that
prints the world reserve currency, in this case, the United States ) . If it were possible to create a system in
which the different governments of the global economy could have discretion, then go for it. However, we
see by the resulting global financial market collapse what discretion can do. So, why not go back to the
gold standard, as we advocate, and as Fed Chairman Greenspan-a central banker who has
discretion-has always advocated? Well, because, as Mr. Greenspan also realizes, there is just too much
political advantage to the countries who dominate world economics. To give up that discretion is to give
up the competitive edge in a competitive global ( and political ) economy. So, don't count on the gold
standard any time soon ( although Russia and some other countries are making noises to that effect. What
choice to they have? ) .

The real question for investors, in the meantime, involves what to do during the time the void between the
old monetary system and the new exists. As a whole, regions of the globe will likely spend years in this
void, and as a result today's investor must do something different with investment capital than he or she
has been doing in the recent past.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:12 - ID#224363)
Are you aware that Crash Test Dummies is actually a band out of Canada. They had a huge single called 'Superman'. Which by the way is exactly who seems to be need to lift the price of gold.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:13 - ID#404130)
Gad. Talk about confusing junk. I couldn't finish the article. I gagged on the implications.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:15 - ID#255151)
US Banks Have 28 Trillion $US in Derivatives

95% are held by the 8 largest banks.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:17 - ID#219363)
I like the "mmm mmm" song better. Once there was this girl who ...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:18 - ID#275194)
Auric; Could you copy that article and then paste. the link is not working.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:20 - ID#268404)
Well, it seems that Mr. Rubin wants you to do what he says and not what he does...Japan lowered interest rates which temporarily lowered the Yen, but lowering US interest rates will put further pressure on $ making it making it much more serious for the dollar/mark ( euro ) ..

Bravo, CHRISOPHILOS Your post hit the nail on the head....US$ wants to be the world's reserve currency, it has to take responsibility for keeping the world's currencies stable...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:20 - ID#255151)
Retry that URL

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:20 - ID#147201)
The Hatt re 18:06
I believe you got that right. I'm waiting for the signal. TYX.X is going to show something not too far off. Thanx, Cnarlie

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:21 - ID#411440)
@ hapless and Gollum: The gold carry will soon unwind, but be
marked by a rise in one month lease rates. Watch the lease rates.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:22 - ID#255151)

THIS will work ( I hope )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:23 - ID#275194)
Auric; no go!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:23 - ID#222231)
ALL-A possible explanation for citizens support for WJC?


After all, the high-level distributors in AMO-way who
develop their own AMO's know little and care even less about
brain function or an overly complicated analysis of why
their "motivational activity" brings them such financial
success ( why their mind control tactics work so well to
create faithful motivation and personal-use addicts ) . The
only thing "Black Hats" have to know and DO know implicitly
is the simple and subtle truth of mind-control: Mind control
is the certain and predictable product of THE FREQUENT
TIME - the same mechanism that results in HABIT, good or
Repetition again:

TIME - the same mechanism that results in HABIT, good or

1 ) Constant repetition of "Ken Starr is the bad guy".

2 ) "It's only mutual consential sex".

3 ) "Six years and $40 mil spent and wasted on a witch hunt".

4 ) "Linda Tripp is a horrible person who taped a close friends conversations".

5 ) "She's trailer trash".

6 ) "The polls overwhelmingly support WJC and lies under oath do not matter".

Add your own spin that I have missed. ( MANY )

The spinmiesters for WJC are all over the media repeating the same arguments over and over and over and over and overrrrrrrrrr.

Need I say more.

As Monica would say, "I'm going to come down hard on you Willy".


Sic him guys!

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:25 - ID#268404)
Another point.....have you noticed those countries that have RAISED interest rates have gotten their markets back in order much more quickly than 8 years of lowering rates...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:27 - ID#275194)

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:29 - ID#288295)
Log jam at Kitco

Please use short-text to save bandwidth. Thanx.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:36 - ID#147201)
Mike Sheller your 19:49
You got that right! I had a few Art. 15,s - it's not enough. Since Clinton is undergurded by hell, we need to dispatch the SOB asap.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:44 - ID#337260)
(he may be to the left, but he has b***s)
To All responders to Rep. Bernie Sanders: Just now checking the posts since this afternoon and was please to see others reacting favorably to
Rep. Sanders. Here is my e-mail sent at 16:21 EDT:

I must confess that today was the first time I have seen you in action and was pleased to find a "fox in the chicken house". That is to say, you were seriously engaging the financial triumvirate with more than Hershey Kisses and bonbons.

I regret not having the chance to hear the ending - beyond the answer by Mr. Greenspan - before CNBC cut away for a quick review of the stock market, commercials and preparation for the Clinton/Havel press conference.

I agree with your points about the failures of the IMF and question throwing more taxpayers money down the drain. We never hear an accounting of how much of the IMF loan money goes to service existing debts held by the major banks.

Keep after 'em. I look forward to hearing more from and about you. Good luck from a Pennsylvania Dutchman. Fummer

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:45 - ID#337260)
(he may be to the left, but he has b***s)
To All responders to Rep. Bernie Sanders: Just now checking the posts since this afternoon and was please to see others reacting favorably to
Rep. Sanders. Here is my e-mail sent at 16:21 EDT:

I must confess that today was the first time I have seen you in action and was pleased to find a "fox in the chicken house". That is to say, you were seriously engaging the financial triumvirate with more than Hershey Kisses and bonbons.

I regret not having the chance to hear the ending - beyond the answer by Mr. Greenspan - before CNBC cut away for a quick review of the stock market, commercials and preparation for the Clinton/Havel press conference.

I agree with your points about the failures of the IMF and question throwing more taxpayers money down the drain. We never hear an accounting of how much of the IMF loan money goes to service existing debts held by the major banks.

Keep after 'em. I look forward to hearing more from and about you. Good luck from a Pennsylvania Dutchman. Fummer

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:51 - ID#254321)
Popping banks! Er -- mousetraps and ping pong balls. See all of you later - Emergency at work
Siverbaron: I like your analogy. I suspect that it will be something like that -- absolute mayhem until the last mousetrap snaps. The trick is to stay out of the way until it is over.

By the way, one of my old introductory physics books used the mousetrap analogy to demonstrate nuclear fission. Each exploding nucleus zapped two more nuclei ( slow neutrons ) until all the nuclei exploded. Chain reaction. In the case of banks the collapse will be less orderly as one big one could bring down many little ones.

Too bad we don't have a snapping mousetrap monitor for all of those banks.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 20:52 - ID#335190)
Currently, fewer and fewer Americans are being convicted for refusal to pay income taxes. In IRS jury trials, the jury, by law, must decide if the law is just.

If taxpayers do not believe the law is just, the jury may declare the accused innocent.

Judges are legally bound to inform juries of their right to determine the fairness of a law. Judges often do not disclose this information so they can control the court outcome.

Luckily, more and more citizens are becoming informed. If one juror feels the law is unfair, they can find the defendant innocent ( Reference 19 ) .
In Utah, the IRS quit prosecuting taxpayers because jurors verdict is not guilty. Please tell your friends and sit in the next jury.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:02 - ID#335190)
In a letter to Thomas Jefferson, John Adams wrote: "All the perplexities, confusions, and distresses in America arise, not from defects in the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation".

Responding, Thomas Jefferson wrote:... "And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by prosperity, under the same name of funding is swindling futurity on a large scale." ( Reference 1, P. 199 )

British bankers have stated "Those that create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in their hands the destiny of the people". ( Reference 1, P. 200-214 )

Adams, Jefferson, and Lincoln believed that banker capitalism was more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. In a republic, banks would lend money but could not create or manufacture it. ( Reference 1, P. 215 )

Later, Jefferson used stronger language and denounced the institution as "one of the most deadly hostilities against the principles and form of our Constitution."

Some have said that Jefferson did not favor a strong central bank. What he did not favor was the delivery of our monetary system into private hands to be run for private profit. ( Reference 1, P. 230 )

President James A. Garfield said: "Whoever controls the money in any country is absolute master of industry
[legislation] and commerce". ( Reference 1, P. 247, Reference 4 )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:04 - ID#287279)
I enjoy your excellent posts.
Keep it up.
11, 13, perhaps. I dont know whether we will see 3,5,11 or 13. Nobody knows. Its all speculation and guess work based on someone's limited study of some variables. NOBODY sees the whole picture.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:08 - ID#255151)
Starr Wars Update

House Judiciary chairman, Henry Hyde, may be the latest victim of the Clinton smear team. Hyde thinks the White House is behind this. The gloves are coming off! From ABC News, via Free Republic web site...

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:09 - ID#341234)
To: Bully Beef
I could not believe the bearishness on Nightly Business Report tonight either. You have to hand it to PBS and NBR for providing the most balanced business news of any TV media outlet. I am off to get the transcript to tonight's show. This one will be a keeper.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:15 - ID#341234)
To: rhody
Your post on lease rates are excellent. Please keep the updates coming.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:15 - ID#342376)
@ Fred
Don't they repeat the Nightly Buisness Report at 11:00? If they do, I'd like to watch it.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:17 - ID#147201)
RJ re banter
I admire the way you handle the sh!t that comes your way. Kind of reminds me of McGwire. Keep the home runs going, Charlie

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:21 - ID#317193)
The markets & Gold
The stock market could easily go to 10,000 or, alternatively, to 5,000. That is simply how precarious things are at the present time. If derivatives do not implode the market equilibrium will be regained and the huge amount of money on the sidelines will flow into the market soon. Of course, the next crisis will just be that much worse...whenever it hits.

Gold can rise in an up market...not just a crisis. In fact, with no underlying reason to politically keep gold down this would be a real plus. Gold to say 350.

For as many negative articles that are posted here I can find you fifty times as many positive on the market. You can not believe most of this stuff anyway so who cares?

Crashes in the stock market happen every 50-60 years...factor that into any predictions. See what the odds are.

BTW...I'm in cash, heavy into physical PM's, some gold stocks and completely out of my internet stocks. So I see the dark side coming. The reality, however, is that it probably ain't gonna happen. I'd rather be a little safer right now than sorry. My risk tolerance is low for the stock market even if gold is said to be "high" risk. I'm even about ready to go long Dec. Gold. Talk about risk taking....well, only with some play money and tight stops.

Gold it is time to GO.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:22 - ID#341234)
To: crazytimes
I think it depends on your local PBS station. If you can watch NBR tonight, it will definitely be worth your time. If not, transcripts can be found here. I guess tonight's show will not be posted until tomorrow.>

If that does not work, try splicing:


(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:26 - ID#342384)
Who Runs America??

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:28 - ID#190411)
kitco slow problemo's ,From ERLE
I see that Kitco is difficult to get on to. The number of posters, and the time span between posts shouldn't be any sort of problem.
I have seen that Kitco is slowest at the time that it will not call the end of string back to my terminal.
I suggest that when you reload/refresh, or log on, that you give particular attention to hitting the stop button when you have received the time frame that you need.
On mine, ( Netscape ) , the red light stays on, usually coinciding with slow access.
Last night it was horrible.
There is something wrong with the server I think. It doesn't end the string at the proper time.
NEVER LOAD KITCO, AND LEAVE YOUR COMPUTER. I think that this is what's killing it.
This is a guess on my part.
Now it will not show the "handle" line.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:34 - ID#335190)
United States Notes are backed by the full faith of the best government in the world - The United States of America.

This is no different than the backing of today's Federal Reserve Notes.
U.S. citizens collect only a small fraction of the interest income on Federal Bonds and Bills.

Foreigners benefit from this interest, but we pay the tax so that they collect interest on our currency. This makes sense to bankers and Congresspeople who receive money from bankers and foreign lobbyists.

The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class...

The great body of the people, mentally incapable of comprehending, will bear its burden without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical ( contrary ) to their interests."

Rep. McFadden continued, "Every effort has been made by the Federal Reserve Board to conceal its power but the truth is the Federal Reserve Board has USURPED THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES. IT CONTROLS EVERYTHING HERE AND IT CONTROLS ALL OUR FOREIGN RELATIONS. IT MAKES AND BREAKS GOVERNMENTS AT WILL.

No man and no body of men is more entrenched in power than the arrogant credit monopoly which operates the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks.

These evil-doers have robbed this country of more than enough money to pay the national debt.

What the Government has permitted the Federal Reserve Board to steal from the people should now be restored to the people."

"Our people's money to the extent of $1,200,000,000 has within the last few months been shipped abroad to redeem Federal Reserve Notes and to pay other gambling debts of the traitorous Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks.

The greater part of our monetary stock has been shipped to foreigners.
Why should the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks be permitted to finance our competitors in all parts of the world?" Rep. McFadden asked.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:36 - ID#342384)
How U.S. courts became Military Courts.
I never really understood what Mozel was refering to when he discussed that the U.S. was actually engaged in the application of Admiralty Law, and all the Courts were in reality Military Courts. After reading this, it starts to make sense.

When I studied in the states, I do remember asking the professor why the national flag was embroidered with gold fringes on 3 sides, and he simply said that it was decoration applied to Goverment flags. After reading this, it made my hair stand....... and made me very angry as to how a goverment plays with and propogates the ignorance of the general population. Not that other ones are any better, but the U.S. propaganda machine plays itself to be something that it is not....and THAT is worse than a declaredly corrupt goverment.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:37 - ID#255151)
White House-- Bad News

Tom Delay, the number three Republican in
House, is furious with the White House over
the Hyde story. Says ALL evidence will be
made public. Also, "Dr Laura" Schlesinger, on
Larry King Live, says Clinton should "do the
right thing for the children and resign."

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:47 - ID#335190)
6pak () ID#335190:
Enjoyed the post:a few more from Thomas Jefferson :

"I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past."
( Thomas Jefferson )

"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."

False is the idea of utility... that would take fire from men because it burns, and water because one may drown in it; that has no remedy for evils, except the destruction of liberty.

"I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious."

"To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. I place economy among the first and most important of Republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared."

"No free man shall ever be de-barred the use of arms. The strongest reason for the people to retain their right to keep and bear arms is as a last resort to protect themselves against tyranny in

I was a great reader of Jefferson 20 years ago ( your quotes brought memories from the past, thanks ) , the quotes I posted, I only stole off the net. The thing that hurts, is this man could never be president today.

Thank you

(Wed Sep 16 1998 21:50 - ID#335190)

For the secret owners of the FED to control the volume of money and become our absolute masters, they had to get the Gold away from our grandparents.

This was accomplished in 1933 with the threats of fines and imprisonments by their President Franklin D. Roosevelt with aide Harry Hopkins, who said... "Elect, elect, elect, tax, tax, tax, spend, spend, spend, for the people are too damned stupid to understand".

By the way, Roosevelt was an international Banker. See "Fool's Gold is Green" by Winston Smith.


The ones who scream the loudest to keep the Federal Reserve Bank probably profit the most.

FED-UP ( tm ) to educate people with the truth.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:02 - ID#413109)
Careful out there!
Can't say I'm impressed with these pictures, can you?

These I think are worth the look on a regular basis, and also confirm
other charts and my interpretations of those. Near term careful- ( Down ) maybe an up day or two
might be a time to sell, for short term traders?
( Believe these are courtesy of Sharefin )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:03 - ID#34883)
The Clinton Plan

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:03 - ID#190411)
Kitco sloooowwws
I tried it again, and I got a screen with the prices box and the usual header.
It stayed that way until I hit the stop button at the top of the browser frame. The all the text reappeared.
Does any one else notice this, or is it peculiar to my system.
I get the same thing on my home computer though.
I do think that it is important to keep an eye on the unfinished activity indicator button, and kill it if it stays on.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:08 - ID#288229)!

in opening......

yes, the door is open wide.....

chop-asaki 6 pack.....chop-asaki.

ride on...your seat on the ssm awaits....the
golden feather en-route...


(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:11 - ID#411440)
@ Fred: re lease rates: I just looked back at my post on lease
rates and noticed that I made a typo. Forward rates should read 5%,
not 6%. Forward rates are the "profit margin" for the gold carry.
It is obtained by the lease rate % from the treasury bill rate for
the similar period. So the forward rate for one month gold is
5.5% ( one month treasury bill rate in US ) less the lease rate of
0.5% for one month gold equals 5%. This is of course annualized so
is 5% divided by 12, and any shorting profit is icing on the
gold carry cake.

At 0.5%, there is huge liquidity in the market as at .5% CBs are
practically leasing gold for free. How can any 'market' operate
under the pressure of such artificial supply? There can be no
bull under these conditions. But in just 3 and one half months,
European central banks will have every reason to arbitrarily
raise lease rates or stop leasing altogether, to usher in the EURO.
Then we will have a gold bull. IMHO

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:13 - ID#335190)
Ray @ 21:47 I also have been accessing the net ( All,I hope this site will help explain.
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 1996 Contributed by: James Shannon

The following file is a good overview of the FACT that the Federal Reserve is PRIVATELY OWNED.

by Thomas D. Schauf
[Part 1 of 3]

Dear American:

Pursuant to your request, I will attempt to clear up questions you have about the Federal Reserve Bank ( FED ) . I spent much time researching the FED and these are the shocking and revealing conclusions.



By controlling our own money, Thomas Jefferson expected that the government would incur no debt, as had occurred in the European system. ( Reference 1, P. 243 ) European banks are like the FED.

The FED system is the death of our Constitution. ( Reference 1, P. 250 )





The Revolutionary War was fought and the Constitution was written to prevent other nations and private banks from issuing ( printing ) money and controlling our currency.

In 1913, members of Congress committed treason and violated their oath of office to defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic by voting in the Federal Reserve Bank.

Who Cares?
(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:14 - ID#242328)
Tom Delay - ALL Evidence will be made public?

All right. Hopefully, the full FBI report will include evidence about
traces of cocaine on the dress and in the President's blood. : )

At least, that's what Gary Aldritch's source say. : )

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:19 - ID#224363)
@rhody - Lease rates
I've been following your thoughts on the relationship between lease rates and the POG and have a few questions.

1. How exactly are the lease rates set ? Is there a primary entity that leads and then all other lenders follow ?

2. Do you think that low rates indicate lack of demand or too much supply ?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:25 - ID#190411)
I saw your 19:34, and several others. What's up? Are you giving some personal opinion, rather than posting news articles?
Good for you.
The 19:34 refers to something that I rant about: "We The People" didn't hire the debt that is strangling us.
Canada, the U.S., Stralia, NZ, etc., have taken on debt levels that cannot be sustained.
The beneficiaries of this debt should be put on notice that the productive among us didn't hire the "money", and, we have no obligation to discharge the debt. ( as if it ever is discharged ) .
30 year bonds are the ultimate leap of faith.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:28 - ID#190411)
I saw your 19:34, and several others. What's up? Are you giving some personal opinion, rather than posting news articles?
Good for you.
The 19:34 refers to something that I rant about: "We The People" didn't hire the debt that is strangling us.
Canada, the U.S., Stralia, NZ, etc., have taken on debt levels that cannot be sustained.
The beneficiaries of this debt should be put on notice that the productive among us didn't hire the "money", and, we have no obligation to discharge the debt. ( as if it ever is discharged ) .
30 year bonds are the ultimate leap of faith.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:31 - ID#373403)
Greenspan today
"In the late twentieth century, however, fiat currency regimes have replaced the rigid automaticity of the gold standard in its heyday. More elastic currencies and markets, arguably, are now less sensitive to and, hence, slower to contain the misallocation of capital. Market contagion across national borders has consequently been more prevalent and faster in today's international financial markets than appears to have been the case a century ago under comparable circumstances.

As I pointed out before this Committee almost a year ago, a good part of the capital that flowed into East Asia in recent years ( largely in the 1990s ) probably reflected the large surge in equity prices in most industrial economies, especially in the United States. The sharp rise induced a major portfolio adjustment out of then perceived fully priced investments in western industry into the perceived bargain priced, but rapidly growing, enterprises and economies of Asia. The tendency to downplay the risks of lending in emerging markets, reinforced by the propensity of governments explicitly or implicitly to guarantee such investments in a number of cases, doubtless led to an excess of lending that would not have been supported in an earlier age."


Why is he advocating funding the IMF then?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:31 - ID#218220)
AOL Poll: His numbers are getting much much Worse!!!
they represent the opinions of AOL members.
Should President Clinton: 

Be impeached?

Be censured?


Be allowed to serve his term?


Total votes:


Given the circumstances, do you think the President can do his job?


Total votes:


Are you: Male




Total votes:


Are you: a Democrat


a Republican


Not affiliated with a major party


Total votes:



(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:33 - ID#255151)
Nikkei Hits the Skids

Down near 14,000^N225&d=1d

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:39 - ID#342384)
An audit of the IRS.
What would THEY do to you, if your delivered your "voluntary" year end declarations as they have??
If you have a weak stomach, bring a bucket.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:45 - ID#159145)
chas and The Hatt
picked up some Claimstaker today for market. Really pleased with the purchase. My Broker with RBC Dominion came on the bid today and did no get filled. He absolutely takes the corporate high road against gold but could not fualt the logic of my purchase. He feels an up side just on Blackdome of $2.93 per share. Great! Thanks for the help.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:46 - ID#190411)
As per usual, the Kitco resident expert on dissecton of the opaque speaches of Mr. Greenspan, nails it.
It's a pity that the press corps haven't anyone that will ask a simple question as yours.
Go Steve. Ask your pals at the "Chicago Tribune", if you can do editorials, as a freelance expert.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:47 - ID#350194)
Hello Cmax! Long time no See, C - Si?
Here's a small sampling from Cmax's site that he gave us at 21:31, Minuteman Press Online, and this is from the Admiralty Law article:
"My investigation convinced me that during the last quarter of a
century the average production of gold has been falling off
considerably. The gold mines of the world are practically exhausted.
There is only about $11,000,000,000 in gold in the world, with the
United States owning a little more than four billions. We have more
than $100,000,000,000 in debts payable in gold of the present
weight and fineness....As a practical proposition these contracts
cannot be collected in gold for the obvious reason that the gold
supply of the entire world is not sufficient to make payment."
Congressional Record, Congressman Dies March 15, 1933

Before 1933 all contracts with the government were payable in gold.
Now I ask you? Who in their right mind would enter into contracts
totaling One Hundred billion dollars in gold, when there was only eleven
billion in gold in the whole world, we had about four billion. To keep from
being hung by the American public they obeyed the banksters demands
and turned over our country to them. They never came out and said we
were in bankruptcy but, the fact remains, we are. In 1933 the gold of the
whole country had to be turned in to the banksters, and all government
contracts in gold were canceled. This is bankruptcy.

"Mr. Speaker, we are here now in chapter 11. Members of Congress
are official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any
bankrupt entity in world history, the U.S. government."
Congressman Traficant on the House floor, March 17, "1993"

Still lots of Gold in the world folks! As usual though, just not not enough to pay all those debts in GOLD.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 22:50 - ID#335190)
Sorry the material is not a news report :) :) :) Be Quiet..Consume..And Die EH!
"For America to Live, Europe Must Die"

The following speech was given by Russell Means in July 1980, before several thousand people who had assembled from all over the world for the Black Hills International Survival Gathering, in the Black Hills of South Dakota. It is [said to be] Russell Means's most famous speech

Being is a spiritual proposition. Gaining is a material act.
Traditionally, American Indians have always attempted to be the best people they could. Part of that spiritual process was and is to give away wealth, to discard wealth in order not to gain.

Material gain is an indicator of false status among traditional people, while it is "proof that the system works" to Europeans.

Clearly, there are two completely opposing views at issue here, and Marxism is very far over to the other side from the American Indian view.
But lets look at a major implication of this; it is not merely an intellectual debate.

The European materialist tradition of despiritualizing the universe is very similar to the mental process which goes into dehumanizing another person. And who seems most expert at dehumanizing other people? And why?
Soldiers who have seen a lot of combat learn to do this to the enemy before going back into combat. Murderers do it before going out to commit murder.

Nazi SS guards did it to concentration camp inmates. Cops do it.
Corporation leaders do it to the workers they send into uranium mines and steel mills.

Politicians do it to everyone in sight.

And what the process has in common for each group doing the dehumanizing is that it makes it all right to kill and otherwise destroy other people.
One of the Christian commandments says, "Thou shalt not kill," at least not humans, so the trick is to mentally convert the victims into nonhumans. Then you can proclaim violation of your own commandment as a virtue.

YES Dickshovel & Banks

Lurker 777
(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:09 - ID#320226)
Are you in Tucson? I thought you lived in TX. Hmmm I hear there is a PK meeting Fri & Sat, you going? Play Golf?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:10 - ID#255190)
Preparing for the shut down of world finance and trade.
Ts'what it looks like to me from here. When each region/nation turns inward and no longer feels any obligation or compulsion to effort toward supporting finacial and trade arrangements in the global setting, then you have a recipe for disaster; an admission that things are way beyond any nation's ability to stave off or thwart.

I think this is equivalent to the crew members taking the first life boats on the Titanic. "Well, to hell with you folks, I'm outa here." When Greenie articulates the 'let the fires burn, we must be concerned about our own house' thing then we can rest assured that the fires will burn us out also .. it is to big.

I believe the meeting last week with the Japanese in San Fransico was a last attempt to get the Japanese to hyperinflate their way out of the depression they are in. They declined. Why? Becuase they know that once they hyperinflate they will no longer be a first class nation. If they go down into a deflationary depression then they can build out at some point and keep their reputation intact. If they hyperinflate then they will be looked upon as a third world country for a generation or two. A matter of honor and of choosing your medicine rather than having it be choosen for you.

At least that is my take at this time.

I believe the 'panics' started in Brazil early this week. But maybe I'm just trying to rationalize here. But with AG/RR and the ever deepening spiral of dispair which is leaking out of the leadership of this erstwhile Titanic, I believe we are close to a full fleged monster of a fire storm.

We must remain postioned to deal with both 'flations' till we see more clearly. My guess is that deflation will occure at least with regard to the Y2K aftermath because of the destruction of credit/debt&risk/reward systems. A reduction of between 20 and 50 to 1 in terms of available purchasing power and price.

Let's remember that gold went up in dollar terms in 1934/5 when the US$ was revalued. A 70% jump as I recall in one year ( from $20.67 to $35 per ounce ) . This in spite of a deflationary depression.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:11 - ID#255190)
Preparing for the shut down of world finance and trade.
Ts'what it looks like to me from here. When each region/nation turns inward and no longer feels any obligation or compulsion to effort toward supporting finacial and trade arrangements in the global setting, then you have a recipe for disaster; an admission that things are way beyond any nation's ability to stave off or thwart.

I think this is equivalent to the crew members taking the first life boats on the Titanic. "Well, to hell with you folks, I'm outa here." When Greenie articulates the 'let the fires burn, we must be concerned about our own house' thing then we can rest assured that the fires will burn us out also .. it is to big.

I believe the meeting last week with the Japanese in San Fransico was a last attempt to get the Japanese to hyperinflate their way out of the depression they are in. They declined. Why? Becuase they know that once they hyperinflate they will no longer be a first class nation. If they go down into a deflationary depression then they can build out at some point and keep their reputation intact. If they hyperinflate then they will be looked upon as a third world country for a generation or two. A matter of honor and of choosing your medicine rather than having it be choosen for you.

At least that is my take at this time.

I believe the 'panics' started in Brazil early this week. But maybe I'm just trying to rationalize here. But with AG/RR and the ever deepening spiral of dispair which is leaking out of the leadership of this erstwhile Titanic, I believe we are close to a full fleged monster of a fire storm.

We must remain postioned to deal with both 'flations' till we see more clearly. My guess is that deflation will occure at least with regard to the Y2K aftermath because of the destruction of credit/debt&risk/reward systems. A reduction of between 20 and 50 to 1 in terms of available purchasing power and price.

Let's remember that gold went up in dollar terms in 1934/5 when the US$ was revalued. A 70% jump as I recall in one year ( from $20.67 to $35 per ounce ) . This in spite of a deflationary depression.

The Hatt
(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:13 - ID#294232)
Codeman/ Claimstaker Resources
Thought i would let you know that i spoke to IR guy today and he was very excited by the number of inquiries regarding the Company. Three analysts and a number of brokers! He told me that they now have the drilling permits for Nevada and that we will see additional news early next week! I asked him about the potential for reserves on Blackdome and he stated that the geologist and the mine manager was confident that it had at least ten years worth of reserves maybe more! Lets hope so.............
He also has heard a rumour that Placer Dome has hit another hot hole but was not certain the location they were drilling! They have been drilling directly south of Claimstakers claims. I donot know about you but the drilling of these claims really gets me excited as a hit where they are could pay huge returns.....

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:26 - ID#409286)
Good Post, have read most of what you posted before and couldn't believe who owns the Fed banks. At present, my concerns are more with current events. 50 years have past before history is upon us again. World War II was the last event to match the gravity of the current situation. My own take of Greenspan's speech today was he was not speaking to congress, but to the G-7. He was telling them we will not act alone, we will act as one. The new world order is upon us. His speech will send chaos throughout the world within the week. Then the G-7 will then act as one. I'm not a fan of the new world order, but it is upon us.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:26 - ID#409286)
Good Post, have read most of what you posted before and couldn't believe who owns the Fed banks. At present, my concerns are more with current events. 50 years have past before history is upon us again. World War II was the last event to match the gravity of the current situation. My own take of Greenspan's speech today was he was not speaking to congress, but to the G-7. He was telling them we will not act alone, we will act as one. The new world order is upon us. His speech will send chaos throughout the world within the week. Then the G-7 will then act as one. I'm not a fan of the new world order, but it is upon us.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:28 - ID#215253)

SEPTEMBER 16, 1998

Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

is president of the

Ludwig von Mises Institute

in Auburn, Alabama.

Clinton's paper money ploy

Copyright 1998,

Speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, President Clinton proposed more spending, regulating, and monetary manipulation as the keys to fixing up the world economy. More ominously, he called for the creation of a new international financial "architecture," which, he implied, would be a permanent bailout fund for deadbeat governments the world over.

Since Clinton has had other things on his mind, one can suppose that he was acting as a spokesman for larger financial and banking interests. Indeed, the day after the speech, a manifesto by George Soros appeared in the Wall Street Journal that underscored Clinton's main points, but with greater attention to detail. Soros wants a global FDIC, possibly with the power to create money.

And this is supposed to cure what ails the world financial system? Don't bet on it. These "solutions" will actually perpetuate the very source of the problem. The drastic devaluations, the stock market crashes, and the burst bubbles of the last five years are not due to the inherent instability of markets, but to destabilizing effects of government manipulation.

Clinton began his speech by drawing attention to inflation, which he considers long gone and utterly unrelated to global financial instability. In fact, inflation and financial instability flow from the same source. Thirty years ago, at a critical turning point, Bretton Woods began to unravel. Fearing the loss of its entire gold stock to foreign redemption, the Nixon administration eventually suspended gold redemption at the same time it imposed wage and price controls and told Fed chairman Arthur Burns to step on the monetary gas.

Thus was born one of the most disastrous experiments in monetary planning of all time. Currencies were decoupled from their historic linkage to a physical anchor. And for the first time in history, central bankers and governments the world over were unshackled from the outside monetary discipline that the gold standard, even the unstable one created in the post-war period, had imposed on them.

The dollar would be backed by only the promise of politicians and central bankers to make good in the long run. Of course, the promise didn't pan out. Inflation taxed away the purchasing power of the 1969 dollar, reducing it to 22.6 cents today. This has resulted in incalculable losses, encouraged fiscal profligacy and debt accumulation, and dramatically redistributed wealth from savers to debtors.

The price has been a shrinkage in savings, a reduced incentive for capital accumulation, and thus lower incomes and less economic growth. Inflation also changed the psychology of personal, government, and corporate finance. Excessive speculation was encouraged.

Chronic price inflation began to abate in the early eighties, but not Fed manipulation, so the problem of loose credit began to show up in other ways. Starting with the domestic rescue and restructuring of the S&L industry, officials came to believe in the magical power of the financial bailout. Bad investments and overbuilt capital sectors would be propped up by fiscal intervention, debt conversion, and credit guarantees.

The troubles with the S&L industry came to be duplicated on an international level, first in Mexico and then in Asia, and now, increasingly, in South America. The details are different, but the overall structure is the same. A certain sector of the economy becomes overvalued and bloated relative to the underlying savings and consumer demand available to support it over the long run. At the root is always excessive and unchecked bank lending, subsidized by political design.

The experiment in free-floating, global fiat currencies has nearly unraveled many times in the past. It has also resisted every attempt to try to bring it under control ( remember the pitiful efforts of Treasury Secretary James Baker to fix exchange rates in the 1980s? ) . What we are witnessing now is the definitive judgement that such unsound currencies are no basis for consistent and stable international economic development.

Clinton shows no awareness of the roots of the current global crisis. He referred to the problems of "financial turmoil," but equally to the problem of "declining economic growth." His solution ( to "spur growth" ) confuses the condition with the cause. It amounts to a vain hope that problems can be literally papered over rather than fundamentally solved.

It's hard to believe that anyone would deny, at this late stage, that making the IMF the world's lender of last resort, much less creating a new and flexible world currency ( the "Soros"? ) , generates a moral hazard for governments. It also wastes tax money, rewards looters, and invites political corruption.

Yes, the transition out of recession into recovery can be painful. But the option of more debt, more bailouts, and more putting off the inevitable, is frankly unthinkable, except for an administration that seems to have a knack for denying reality in the hope that it will go away.

Send e-mail
Llewellyn Rockwell Go to
Llewellyn Rockwell's
Archive Go to WND
Exclusives Archive Go to
Page One

 1998 Western Journalism Center

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:29 - ID#433172)
I get a white screen until I push the stop, then the whole thing comes on at least whats loaded.

My 2 cents on Clinton. Looks like the ole southern preacher syndrone complete with the forgive me lord part. I wonder if he talks to his dog? The dog would forgive him certainly, at least mine would even at a distance. Gore has it too, just listen to that passion.

Preacher... Lyndex has doulbled recently on volume, pourqoi?

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:38 - ID#409286)
Good Post, have read most of what you posted before and couldn't believe who owns the Fed banks. At present, my concerns are more with current events. 50 years have past before history is upon us again. World War II was the last event to match the gravity of the current situation. My own take of Greenspan's speech today was he was not speaking to congress, but to the G-7. He was telling them we will not act alone, we will act as one. The new world order is upon us. His speech will send chaos throughout the world within the week. Then the G-7 will then act as one. I'm not a fan of the new world order, but it is upon us.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:46 - ID#401460)

Soros recently suggested that we need to establish a World Reserve Bank similar to the US Federal Reserve, the New World Order is here.


(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:46 - ID#247273)
themissinglink et al
Thanks for posting the transcript of Greenspan, which I heard, and which
I caught the references to gold, as a discipline ( as pointed out here in previous posts ) that contained the ability to create credit induced bubbles. Through all the gobbledegook of Mr. Greenspan, the message is abundantly clear that he is admitting that anything man synthesizes in place of the gold standard is flawed, because it relies upon the self control of those in power to create money and credit. Upon this admission, however, along with further descriptions of the current predicament the world is in, he offers no answer, other than the reference to gold. Upon being pressed by Joe Kennedy and Bernie Saunders, and others he nor Rubin are able to propose a solution or even a process towards a solution vis a vis the IMF. Many would suggest that unless and until such solutions or processes are properly presented, then no further infusions to IMF will lead towards some suitable alternative to the gold standard. IMHO.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:51 - ID#350194)
Buttons and Codes and
Six Packs whom love to consume! I still have that lonely button looking for a home; say it's not so, muses poor Auric, ( methinks I knew him well ) , therefore, perhaps YOU, oh yeasty fellow, should be the one to proclaim the time and place of the next nearly TRUE NORTH Kitco Extravaganza. Don't wait too long though, ( to follow through ) , or Polarbears may show up, riding not Jack's frosty breezes, Aurophile's bubbly freezes, neither cherokee's smokey machine, ( or even Pierre's harlot queens ) , but, rather, the wings of a liberated Eagle ( or two ) .

Glenn - Where the heck you at? Spending all that newly minted lucre?
Goodnight Dick.

Chicken man
(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:53 - ID#343359)
6pak @ Farm bailout
If I may... All that $ that is suppose to go to the farmers will end up at the banks, including gov "banks" ( Federal Farm Credit ) . It is easier
to bail out farmers, than take over banks with loans made to farmers.
Ala IMF style. Believe me that the farmers won't be spending one nickel
of that pile.

Been there..done the forecloser notice to prove it!

I raised hogs and fed cattle..the "chicken man" bit is another story

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:56 - ID#290172)
Auric-Well, personally I think Hyde has a better eye(see their ph

Today, from a SF feed, Salon was also peddling on Fox news, the tale of a meeting in a New York lawyers office that was the start of the "Conservative Conspiracy to get the President". The lawyer was supposedly a former law partner, associate of Starr's

So today was a big day for themHyde and Starrthose 'helpful' FBI files?

The night before Santa Anna's troops stormed the Alamo, didn't they play a refrain which meant they would take no prisoners? Well, I think that is HRC's theme song.

Truly distasteful tactics

And, re-assembling our afflicted powers,
Consult how we may henceforth most offend.

(Wed Sep 16 1998 23:57 - ID#222231)
Want to listen to testimony by AG, RR and LS Sept 16,98
You will need RealAudio