Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:04 - ID#431200)
Hong Kong Ruffles 'Golden Goose'

The government's first-ever stock market intervention stirs concerns.
By RONE TEMPEST, Times Staff Writer HONG KONG--Before Hong Kong passed from British to mainland Chinese control in July 1997, the big fear was that the considerable political and press freedoms enjoyed here would be endangered under the new regime.
There was less concern, even among the most alarmist critics, that Hong Kong's vibrant market--long rated one of the freest in the world--would be compromised. The free market and hands-off government policies were considered too much of a Hong Kong hallmark--indeed, the very key to the territory's remarkable half-century of uninterrupted growth.
If you want to keep collecting golden eggs, the Hong Kong establishment insisted at every available opportunity, you don't pluck the goose that is producing them.
Yet 14 months after the British-Chinese hand-over, it is the market and the Hong Kong government's sudden interventionist policy--not the politics--that pose the biggest questions about Hong Kong's future.
"As to whether it marks a sea change in what makes Hong Kong what it is, the jury is still out," a U.S. observer commented. "But I think there is a concern that this is a departure that could change the game in Hong Kong."
Perhaps no government action in the last year has done more to legitimize the increasingly widespread attacks on free markets than Hong Kong's unprecedented intervention in its stock market.
Beginning in mid-August, faced with what they asserted was a concerted attack on their currency by unnamed international speculators, Hong Kong authorities broke with tradition and began a massive injection of public funds into the reeling Hong Kong Stock Exchange, investing an estimated $10 billion to $13 billion in companies listed on the Hang Seng index.
The government theory was that the speculators, mainly large hedge fund operators, were dumping Hong Kong dollars in an effort to drive up interest rates and then profit by taking "short" positions on the stock market. ( Short sellers bet that a stock's price will fall. These investors borrow the shares and sell them, hoping to replace them later at a lower price. )
So far, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Donald Tsang has refused to disclose the exact percentage of Hong Kong's $96-billion reserves that has been sunk into the market in the ongoing "war" with speculators in the futures market.
"You have to understand that we are in the middle of a little battle here," said Tsang, a Harvard public administration alumnus with a penchant for military metaphors. "It would not be wise to disclose the number of tanks and aircraft I have at my disposal."
In addition to its first-ever stock market intervention, the government revised rules in the stock and futures markets and proposed legislation that would grant Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa unprecedented powers to step in when financial authorities feel markets are heading in an unfavorable direction.
So far, the interventionist policy has scored some significant victories.
A several-month slide in the stock market has been reversed. And despite initial doubts when the intervention was announced, public opinion polls show the Hong Kong population increasingly supportive of the government moves.
"The government had to act," said Canadian entrepreneur Allan Zeman, a 27-year resident of Hong Kong whose businesses include restaurants, fashion exports and real estate.
"We were in a situation where all of Asia was going through a recession or depression at the same time, something that had never happened before. To do nothing and keep saying that you are open is also wrong. What the government was trying to do is maintain a kind of stability."
But many still worry that the government actions may have critically damaged Hong Kong's reputation as the citadel of laissez-faire, free-market capitalism.
American economist Milton Friedman, previously one of Hong Kong's biggest boosters, described the government intervention as "insane." "Does the Hong Kong government really intend to socialize Hong Kong?" Friedman demanded.
Foreign observers here are also troubled by what they say is an anti-foreign tinge to the public statements of Tsang and other officials who blame "international speculators" for the market problems.
Brokers who haunt the trendy Lan Kwai Fong bars and restaurants grumble that the Hong Kong government itself has become "the world's biggest punter," or stock speculator. The atmosphere is akin to a devoutly religious person whose faith, in this case in Hong Kong's adherence to the free market, has suddenly been tested.
Among the many anomalies produced by the state stock-buying binge: The Hong Kong government is now the biggest shareholder in Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp., the territory's largest private bank.
"After years of market liberalization and a light regulatory touch," noted the South China Morning Post in an editorial, "Hong Kong is heading in the opposite direction."
For their part, the principal Hong Kong officials involved--Chief Executive Tung, Financial Secretary Tsang and Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam--have all been apologetic, even sheepish about what they describe as an extraordinary action.
"We know that the government of Hong Kong cannot be forever in the market," said Tsang." . . . We hate being in the market."
Despite the important concerns, many in the foreign investment and diplomatic community here appear willing to give the government the benefit of the doubt after this round.
"These officials are all highly educated, intelligent people," said an American observer. "They are very conscious that what they have done is a radical step. The regulations that they set up were not that out of line. If the intervention was a one-time thing, then I think that the damage to Hong Kong's reputation as an exemplar of free markets is probably slight."

Copyright 1998 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:09 - ID#219363)
Precious Metals
To those investors who have not purchased any precious metals: Just wanted to send out a little reality check. Right now, for golden eagles - you can, at this very moment, purchase them for under 5000 dollars a pound. For Silver coins, you're talking about 100 bucks a pound. This is the time to be accumulating precious metals. In other words, you could own your body weight in Silver coins for under 30K$US. This is only a test. Had this been an actual emergency -

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:19 - ID#433172)
Fats in the fire
Darkwings post says it all, the modis operandi. Mr. Rockwell is explicit and easy to read. Now all that remains is for the creatures to expose themselves ( Soro is first ) and we will know the authors of our potential doom. All that is required is a crisis situation, I have a feeling that will come very soon, and a rational for remedy will be trotted out. The final triumph of fiat dictatorship justified bny it's own failure. How ironic.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:21 - ID#431200)
Nikkei 225^ N225 12:27AM 13891.76 Down -305.94 Change -2.15%

Nikkei 225^N225 12:27AM 13891.76 Down -305.94 Change -2.15%

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:25 - ID#255151)
US, Japan Say World on the Edge of Deflationary Spiral

From Nando News

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:26 - ID#411163)
Japan is down 350 to 13,856

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:26 - ID#433172)
Mr. Greenspan would do well to be careful of his health over the near term, is he is actually a man with integrity.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:30 - ID#288229)


yes...i do live in all over the
west......leaving tucson for phoenix then houston
for the weekend.....watched the sunset from saurauo
cactus preserve this afternoon....absolute seclusion
with the critters and the spirit of the bird....

what an awesome place....a place of power..
for those who seek is found in
the places where NO ONE GOES!!


(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:37 - ID#247273)
In the "springs" that have no ocotillo or water,
but steal it from somewhere else......
greetings, and a pleasant journey back to your home.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:55 - ID#219363)
13809.04 -388.66 -2.74%

Btw, one million dollars gets you your body weight in golden eagles. *grin*

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:56 - ID#373403)
I think Washington recognizes the urgency and doesn't plan to help!
The minister also promised to make "utmost efforts" to help the economy
and said progress had been made in deregulation although Japan would
positively accept "constructive U.S. advice."

The ministry official said there appeared to be a gap in understanding
between the two sides, arguing that Washington failed to recognize the
sense of urgency gripping Tokyo.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:59 - ID#286230)
Brokers to be ready by June or else--what?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 00:59 - ID#242303)
One of the sites for up-dates on what's happening in Monicagate

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:00 - ID#373403)
Slap Fight
Overall, the U.S. trade representative blamed the rising trade imbalance
between the two countries on rising Japanese steel and car exports, while
Yosano cited instead the decline in imports to recession-struck Japan.

( CUT )

You are hurting us. No, we are the victim. Obviously the dollars strength is the cause but the play must be acted out for the sake of the sheeple.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:00 - ID#401460)

Nikkei 225

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:08 - ID#219363)
Japan must be having some kind of financial problem or something.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:11 - ID#242303)
If Clinton doesn't go- disaster looms for the Democrats..
but does anyone trust W.C. to put others before his own ambitions.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:12 - ID#242303)
the url to go with my last comment- omitted

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:16 - ID#268404)
Free Market, hahahahaha
When has the Market ever been FRee, the Power Mongers ( government banks )
control in ever so called Free Market. The Black Market is a Free Market

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:19 - ID#222231)
Addition to previous post-Gold standard under consideration?
Slide time bar to 01:45 for Bernie Sanders testimony and to 02:10 for Ron Pauls testimony. Paul suggested going to a gold standard. AG said there has been discussion for the past decade to consider such in a manner less than full backung.

Is it possible that CB sales are just a reallocation of gold assets between major CBs? Could a meltdown in present fiat system be a plan to convince the world that a new one world currency with gold as part of the equation will save us all? This is of course after they own and control most of the worlds gold, which IMHO they already do.

Please listen to Paul and AG and comment.



(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:21 - ID#222231)
Addition to previous post-Gold standard under consideration?
Slide time bar to 01:45 for Bernie Sanders testimony and to 02:10 for Ron Pauls testimony. Paul suggested going to a gold standard. AG said there has been discussion for the past decade to consider such in a manner less than full backung.

Is it possible that CB sales are just a reallocation of gold assets between major CBs? Could a meltdown in present fiat system be a plan to convince the world that a new one world currency with gold as part of the equation will save us all? This is of course after they own and control most of the worlds gold, which IMHO they already do.

Please listen to Paul and AG and comment.



(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:39 - ID#284255)
Swing - momentum - adv/dec - up/down voulme charts

Whats going on?

Massive movements in the swing and the markets wiggle.
Momentum going crazy but little change.

Seems like something wildly volatile is about to happen.

Which way???

Watch the Tick - tock.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:43 - ID#410215)
..... Something to Make Goldbugs Dance with Glee .....

And begin happily slapping their knees whilst engaged in one of the high stepping jigs that can only mean one thing.. The gold bear is over

We are the largest seller of bullion coins from each of the various mints throughout the world.. We were notified last week the there is a 10 ( maybe 15 ) day wait on all gold bullion coins. Doesnt matter from which mint, The RCM, the US mint, the Austrian mint, all are on backorder. We do a billion and a half in wholesale business to coin shops and resellers across the country. They are screaming for metal because their customers are screaming for the metal, but the problem is at the source. Why???

The mints cite increase and continuing heavy demand for gold coins. I can say, as a company, we had one of the best months in a decade in gold coins. The demand is starting to show its concerned face and I suspect this will only increase over the next year. The whole Y2K thingie is really lighting a fire under folks with far reaching vision. Oddly enough, I am hearing very little fear about the Dow. They will buy it back up the whence it fell, and soon it seems. I am still trading platinum through years end, with the intent of moving out of platinum and into gold by December or January.

I think, in 1999, all these metals will fly.

Will you folks still be mad at me when I become an unabashed gold bull?

To be honest, I shorted gold at 296 - 294. As all are against long platinum, and a damn decent hedge with platinum suffering so. All are in profits already so I will brook no hostility from the rest of youse guys about shorting. I have posted here that gold is likely to remain range bound through year end, I will look to cover near 280, then turn into a gold delivering machine, as long as I can get it in peoples hands for below 300, delivered. I have yet to place a long trade on gold, not for at least two years. But when I cover my shorts, this is buying, yes?

I still think the lows will hold, and these gold shorts are short term trades only. I remain bored for the rest of the year concerning gold, bull increasingly bullish as we enter 1999. You all had to listen to my harping during the steady drop in the price of gold, I hope you find my upcoming harping on the wondrous merits of gold an easier read.

Go Gold

Indeedy so

(Thu Sep 17 1998 01:52 - ID#219363)
I ( and I'm sure others ) would be very interested in your analysis of all that data.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 02:03 - ID#284255)
Who did it
Who pressed the buy button at 3:30?

Roger Simon Answers Your Questions About Sex
An Opinion From Roger Simon
Q: Just what is sex?
A: Sex is when a man and a woman who truly love one another get together and share that love physically.
Q: Just what is sex to Bill Clinton?
A: Bill Clinton has never had sex.
Q: Never?
A: Never. Under his definition of sexual relations, sex must involve farm implements, circus animals or licensed meteorologists in order to qualify as sex.
Q: How do we know this?
A: Simple logic. He swore under oath to lawyers for Paula Jones, who was suing him for sexual harassment, that he never had sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. He later swore the same thing to a grand jury, which was investigating him for criminal misdeeds.
Q: And?
A: Well, according to Lewinsky's testimony, which has not been disputed by the president or his lawyers, they had several acts of oral sex, he stimulated her manually, and he both fondled and
kissed her breasts on numerous occasions.
Q: Wow! When did he find time to save Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment?
A: One wonders.
Q: So he got basically to what? Third base?
A: Maybe shortstop. Depends on your high school.
Q: Whatever. But he didn't consider that sex?
A: Didn't and doesn't. Even though he has apologized to the immediate world -- if he hasn't called you yet, don't worry, he has gotten only to the D's in the phone book - - he still makes
the claim that none of this was sex. But he says he has repented and is seeking pastoral guidance.
Q: He should be seeking a dictionary! How can he say he has repented, but he still insists he never had sex with her?
A: Well, he has a little legal problem. If you and I admit that we lied to a grand jury, that would be perjury. But Clinton's case is different.
Q: Why?
A: Because his lawyers say that in order to commit perjury you must knowingly lie. And, they say, Clinton did not knowingly lie because what he did is not sex in his world.
Q: What world is that?
A: Mars, I think.
Q: What about the cigar?
A: That is going to be his defense if he ever faces an impeachment trial. He did not have sex with her; his cigar had sex with her!
Q: I want to be sure I understand. He really believes he didn't have sex with her?
A: Hey, he's not sure if he was ever alone with her! He had to ask his secretary! Even though his memory is famous - - he can remember giving speeches at high schools decades ago and can
even summon up the names of the teachers and what he talked about - - he could not remember being alone with Monica Lewinsky on the at least 10 different occasions when she performed oral sex on him.
Q: Could he have forgotten?
A: Sure. If he had a lobotomy we don't know about.
Q: What does Hillary think about all this?
A: Didn't you see her on TV saying that she forgives her husband for having sex with a woman who is just a few years older than their daughter?
Q: No?
A: Oh, yeah. That's right. Hillary hasn't gone on TV to say that. In fact, she hasn't gone on TV to say she forgives him at all.
Q: What advice would you give Hillary?
A: I would not presume to give her advice. I would only remind her of two words.
Q: Which are?
A: Lorena Bobbitt.
Q: You mean...
A: Yeah. He's got to fall asleep some time.

Roger Simon is the White House correspondent of the Chicago Tribune.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 02:04 - ID#266105)

Considering a long platinum call for the entire year it looks
like time to short gold.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 02:13 - ID#284255)
Cash Registers ring up $250,000

Soon to be $2,000,000,000,000

Just .01% would be nice.

John Disney
(Thu Sep 17 1998 02:48 - ID#24135)
for polarbear ..
Harmony options expire end july
2001 stike price 60 rand ..
to all ..
this last acquisition of a new ex
fregold shaft from anglos adds
ANOTHER 5 million ounces of resourecs.
This put them around 105/110 mill. I
think .. Im starting to lose
count .. I cant keep up ..
AngloGold only has 200 mill oz
I believe .. Harmony is gaining

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:08 - ID#219363)
Denmark 208.22 -1.25 -0.60%
France 3729.32 -103.30 -2.77%
Germany 4802.42 -55.55 -1.14%
Switzerland 6605.1 -113.5 -1.69%

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:29 - ID#219363)
I know silver sells for less than gold, but how much more abundant is it ?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:38 - ID#219363)
Austria 1133.47 -12.30 -1.07%
Denmark 208.19 -1.28 -0.61%
Finland 4221.03 -158.37 -3.62%
France 3729.32 -105.91 -2.84%
Germany 4796.80 -61.17 -1.26%
Netherlands 1003.57 -23.77 -2.31%
Switzerland 6588.0 -130.6 -1.94%
Turkey 1992.15 -134.86 -6.34%

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:42 - ID#219363)
Japanese Stocks Close Lower
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's key stock index tumbled to a new 12-year closing low amid pessimism over Japan's economy and renewed worries about Russia. The dollar fell against the yen. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average shed 338.56 points, or 2.38 percent, closing at 13,859.14. On Wednesday, the Nikkei closed down 29.67 points, or 0.21 percent. Thursday's finish was below the previous 12-year closing low of 13,915.63 set on Aug. 28. In mid-afternoon trading, the dollar bought 134.16 yen, down 0.76 yen from late Wednesday in Tokyo and also below its late New York rate of 134.90 yen overnight. On top of domestic economic factors, traders said shares of major Japanese trading houses and other companies doing business with Russia were among the day's losers.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:48 - ID#219363)
Buffett Not Fazed By Finance Crisis
OMAHA, Neb. ( AP ) -- For all those investors staying awake at night over the turmoil in world financial markets, it may be some comfort to know that investment guru Warren Buffett has been sleeping soundly. "All you have to do is invest in the right business and wake up like Rip Van Winkle, a lot richer," said Buffett, who is known for investing in companies in which he believes in and sticking with them over the long haul. Risk in the troubled economies of Asia and Russia varies depending on the company, Buffett said, with banks that have extended loans to failed businesses among those hardest hit. And the impact those markets have had on the United States was unexpected, he said.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:50 - ID#219363)
France 3729.32 -198.40 -5.32%

(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:52 - ID#284255)
Lots of charts to analyse.

But some very interesting movements.
Here's some of my views.
They probably are just another way of explaining what many of us are observing within the markets.
UpVol/DownVol Chart:
Note the oscillations of the Up/Down volume ratios - 2nd chart.
Scroll between this chart and the Dow one above it.
Normally this indicators just wobbles around spending most of its time above the center line.
Major fluctuations occur at turning points in the indices.
You can see the turning points be observing when the oscillator dips very sharply.
Lately its moves have been way out of the norm.
Perhaps a major turning point.
To me it resembles the movements around early January.
Which would signal a rally ahead and judging by the strength of the pulse would be of a very strong nature.
Long Term Swing Chart:
Most powerful impulse in a long time - down and up.
Under all the other instances the markets had started solid moves up, on bullish sentiment, by the time the swing had moved up over 30 points.
Here it has retraced 35 points and the market has not moved and sentiment is suspiciously absent.
So the swing is moving to the top of its cycle and the markets have hardly moved.
Short Term Swing Chart:
I would watch carefully for the top of this cycle up.
Where it stops and the duration of topping before cycling low is paramount.
Time to go short is when the red line pierces through the blue line.
I think it is topping out now.
The acceleration rate has pulled right back.
In the past these signals have always been the call for a bull rally.
This time there is failure.
Never before has the swing has moved so far, so quickly.
With no corresponding move from the market.
( adv-dec ) / ( adv+dec+unc ) and next two charts
Momentum indicators showing the power behind this lastest up move.
Next three charts are the number of advancers, decliners and unchanged. For the NYSE, Nasdaq and Amex markets.
These indicators are good to describe the "PING"
Last three charts are advance/decline charts.
They to show no upmove having occurred.
Considering the strength of the impulse having just gone into the market.
The markets internals have not shown any improvement.
Indices should be way higher, sentiment should be stronger.
The bulls should be stronger.
Instead the reckless bulls seem to be looking over their shoulders and not getting on with the job.
Sorry if this all sound confusing.
On one hand I am saying rally and on the otherhand down.

I think the fact that there should be a massive rally and the fact that we have'nt had it and the sentiment to follow through doesn't seem there.
And the strength of this upswing is topping out and ready to cycle down.
Will create a massive whipsaw.

I expect to see the next impulses even more wilder.
With greater fluctuations.

It would not surprise me to see a massive down slide coming off the top of this swing cycle.

Personally I would be totally out of the market now.
And would be laying down a sizable stake on puts options just as this next swing cycle rolls over.
But I have no money in the markets and no money outside the markets.
Broke till I've sold my home - sigh.
I'll buy some pretend puts ( :- ) ) )

I could well be wrong and the markets could do that bull rally but I don't think the bull has it in him anymore.
He's run out of strength - mortally wounded.

All in my humble opinion.
If any one takes my advice and losses money they should have their head read.
If on the otherhand they take my advice and make money on it they should still have their head read.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 03:54 - ID#358318)
@Envy- Buffett: All you have to do...
Isn't that like Einstein saying "All you have to do is work out the right
maths and then, hey, you've got the theory of relativity"

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:01 - ID#219363)
Thanks so much for taking the time to go through all that. I had honestly expected a good rally, don't get me wrong, my bets are all on the down-side, but I had expected to see DOW 8300 before we went down. Luckilly ( well, it remains to be seen ) I went ahead and bought all my options back already, so if it heads down, I'll be there waiting. Looking at Europe this morning, doesn't look too nifty. Never can tell with these things I suppose, could do just about anything before it's over with. Thanks again for the most excellent analysis.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:05 - ID#219363)
Yeah, reminds me of my Linear Algebra professor years back - he'd write non-stop across three chalk-boards for an hour. I could barely keep up with the notes, and he'd get us all to the point of exhaustion and maximum confusion, then he'd smile and say "The rest is trivial". *grin* Or he'd say, "The rest is an exercise in Calculus". hehe

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:14 - ID#390259)
Bullish on Dow- James Dines sees strong year end rally possible, even a new bull,
but a total meltdown is in the cards once the DOW gets below 7400.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:19 - ID#219363)
I can't believe you get so much information from those charts. I look at them and, well, I honestly just see a bunch of squiggle lines. The charts make sense, I mean, I know what the A/D chart is, and of course I've seen the DOW chart before *grin*, but it takes reading what you wrote and looking at the graph at the same time to even pick out what you're talking about. Very cool stuff. One of the charts I don't understand is the swing chart, I'm not sure what that is even.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:33 - ID#219363)
are saying DJIA 8080, -95

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:42 - ID#386245)
Monica spotted in Oz today...
...on vacation up at Port Macquarie. At least she has good taste. Well, come to think of it...

Of what interest is this to goldbugs? I think Monica qualifies as a gold digger extraordinaire. I'll call De Creps over at Normandy and see if we can't get her a job down under. Of interest is the fact that she is visiting the same resort that Bill & Hill visited 18 months ago ( their favourite spot in Oz ) . Does this send a message or what??

Gonna start a Monica fan club. This girl has huevos. No bloody brains, but big heuvos.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 04:45 - ID#252391)
Going away
will be away from this board and this Kitco world till after Friday's close. Break will be refreshing. We've had our three days down in gold to about the 288.50 level on Dec gold below which I would have no longer been comfortable.

RJ let's get the Platinum market going while I'm gone.

Dollar turning back down - the S&P off 1500 points from APH's 106 sell point. Options expriation tomorrow morning. I still expect the top of this rally to be Friday morning, but declines in Japan and South America may not allow for that.

Good luck all ( all that are long gold and metal stocks that there anybody else here???? )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 05:12 - ID#386245)
Speaking of gold...
Gold correcting nicely, right on schedule. After a 30-40% up-move in major gold indexes you can expect a 40-60% correction of the up-move. Physical @271 to 294 should take us back to the low/mid 280's. Aussie golds are shouting BULL****, we don't believe you!!! Aussie investors are very perceptive. They know the US$$ is dead and buried. Just haven't had a funeral yet. Not much correction in Aussie golds. In fact, the good ones like Resolute ( RSG ) are actually gaining ground. 100% minimum up-move ( for shares ) in the next 12 months and 200% by blackout time. MVHO cheers, N.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 05:19 - ID#258142)
Europe bourses are diving
Eurotop 100 index ( mix of 100 biggest European companies ) is about -2.5%
Amsterdam AEX index is balancing around psychologically important 1000 level and now is under it - for the first time since February. I know a lot of people, invested their savings in mutual funds and saying with pride "Ive done it when AEX was in 900+ range ) - July top was 1300+. If it will close below 1000 for a couple of days, it may trigger a massive sell-off. Why Amsterdam is so important? In some respect it plays the same role in Europe as Hong Kong in SE Asia, that made so many troubles in October 1997. Market cap of Amsterdam bourse is bigger then Honk Kongs. What is also interesting, that during equity rally in recent days Amsterdam was continuing to decline.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 05:31 - ID#386245)
G'day Delphi
Is Amsterdam still in the Netherlands? You have to pay for your share-mania. Perhaps you can trade your shares for some tulip bulbs.

Red ink in Europe tonight.

Globex looks bad for the S&P.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 05:50 - ID#258142)
Hi, Nick. I do not play shares at all. Only options - puts at the moment. Amsterdam is still here and is the oldest bourse in the world. It's rainy here

(Thu Sep 17 1998 05:59 - ID#333126)
and now, for your reading pleasure

nice fictional short story.

( not gold related, but perhaps y2k related )

:- )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:04 - ID#333126)
g'day Nick@C
i resisted buying those NAB puts today. maybe i should have.
took some nerve to tell myself that those gold mining shares will be cheaper with the crash ...

sure smells like a BIG one is coming.

dunno about you - my plan is to take profits from puts and put them into gold mining calls ;- ) - there's an interesting warrant on RSG, strike price $1.23, dated until next year...

just hope i get the timing right.

is it ethical to make money when the walls are coming down in the financial world? someone else's demise? have they prepared to clean the bodies off the streets in the financial district?

M$FT stock to resemble Dutch tulips. Even more so for Internet hotshot companies.

ahh... the twisted world we live in.

Monkee Person
(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:07 - ID#350199)
Re: Nick@C 05:12 and Resolute Sam
And likewise for Delta ( DGD ) .

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:24 - ID#284255)
Charles Keeling (@ The scene RE: PPT at work again)
Here's the PPT working hard.
Once again.

What scares me is that they need to do this just to hold the markets up.

Imagine if they didn't intervene?

Dow 3000???

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:28 - ID#284255)

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:30 - ID#333126)
sharefin - someday you'll have to explain those charts to me...
sure, they look nice ( red and white and all ) , but what's your *interpretation*?

give a man a fish vs. teach a man to fish, if you get my drift :- )

( forgive me if you've heard this one b4 )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:41 - ID#184212)
another interesting day
all red overseas, s&p futures -14.6. sold all my gold stocks
in the last 2 days except for bgo. Hoping to get them cheaper,
hmmmmmm, maybe I should have held on. From all the posting
the last day or so, I'd say no one has the foggiest idea of
which way anything is going ( at least in the next few days ) ,
After losing 50% of my gold portfolio during August, then
regaining about 35% of it back, makes me very nervous. HEHE.
Oh well, its only money, right? Time to get ready for work.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:42 - ID#386245)
G'day ravenfire
Those RSG warrants look awfully good, mate. About a 35 cent premium at the moment. I've got a truckload of the shares bought during the last panic low. I ain't sellin'. As long as the nickel deal with Preston goes through, it is blue sky and big bucks ahead. Lots of little panicky shareholders that give them away when POG is down. The last week the big boys have started accumulating. Some big lines of 100 000 to 200 000 shares going through the last 3 days. If they correct from here, grab em quick. Then pray to the nickel god. The gold god don't need no help.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:44 - ID#284255)
You have to view the markets like music.
The cadence and the meteor of the ebb and flow.
There is a lilt and a resonance that the markets exhibit.

All those charts ( 95% ) are created from one set of data.
The adv/dec/unc data from 9000 odd stocks from the NYSE, Nasdaq and the Amex.
I use them to view the pulsations of the internals coming from the daily movements.

After a while certain sequences start to stand out.
I have picked the tops 3 times in the last 18 months just using a certain pattern within the swing charts.
Twice entering before the herd had turned.
This time - abstinence.

The swing chart formula I found in an old trading book.
The cycles of the swing are used to work out accumulation/distribution.
All this data refers to, is the pulse of the market.
Is the market buying or selling?
The broad market.

Interpretation takes time but the pulse is there.
It's up to the individual to take the indicators he feels comfortable with
And to turn it into success.
I could easily take a totally different set of indicators and use them to display the pulse within the markets.

The pulse of the European markets at the moment is very telling.

Perhaps when the swing crosses.
The red line passing through the blue as the blue heads downhill.
A down oscillation on the swing.
You should take a close look at what it to follow.

I'm not sure why but this is a following indicator but somehow one can use it to preguess the turns.

We will watch this market unfold - soon.

Monikers alive.
She was also seen in Port Douglas today.

Walking in footsteps of the giants?

Bill Clinton was here this year.
Bill Gates a few months ago.
Now Moniker?

Not a bad lifestyle for an ex-intern...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 06:45 - ID#29048)
Buffett is sitting on 9 Billion in cash....
September 17, 1998

Buffett Declines to Offer an Opinion On the Market, but Is Holding Cash


OMAHA, Neb. -- Warren Buffett has some money to spend.

Fielding questions at a special stockholder meeting here Wednesday, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. declined, as usual, to offer an opinion on the stock market's current valuation. But he did provide one possible clue to his perspective: Berkshire, the famed stock picker disclosed, is currently sitting on $9 billion in cash.

Because undervalued stocks that the "value investor" seeks become ever harder to find during bull markets, Mr. Buffett reiterated Wednesday that "it's always beneficial for us when the market goes down." The market's recent slide "hasn't been dramatic," he noted, before telling Berkshire holders that "if the market declines significantly, you can be pretty sure that we won't have $9 billion in cash when we meet next year" at Berkshire's regular annual meeting in May.

More... at

requires a subscription

Bully Beef
(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:18 - ID#259261)
I think the world interpreted the Fed as saying...
"Oh boy! The world finances are going to rotten. Lets protect ourselves and the danged..."
Not that I wouldn't protect myself first mind you. It's easy to take the high road when it ain't your money.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:24 - ID#341189)
US banks increase risky loans - next 18 months will tell

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:28 - ID#341189)
Russia conserving reserves; stopped intervention - they say

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:42 - ID#341189)
Morning PM report from Europe

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:47 - ID#258427)
Somebody go wake Silverbaron up ....
I wanna know what's going on today...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:48 - ID#224363)
RJ (..... Something to Make Goldbugs Dance with Glee .....)
Thanks for the update on coin demand...

I had suspected that demand was strong and you confirmed it. One of my neighbours is a manager at the RCM and has indicated that they are cranking out gold-based product as fast as they can. I have heard that both supply and production limitations are a problem for them in terms of upping their output.

I would suspect that this is where some or a lot or the leased gold goes.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:48 - ID#341189)
Brazil - Rubin talks - but where would the rescue money come from?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:56 - ID#29048)
gold up
dollar weaker against the yen and European currencies
s&p futures are dropping.>

gold and silver futures are up and going up

I wonder how many Buffett wannabes will go to cash today.....hmmmmm

(Thu Sep 17 1998 07:57 - ID#255226)
IDT - After being in and out of the spz8 a couple of times yesterday I ended up short at 1057, there is still a chance it could rally back above 1065 today or tomorrow. Added to dec gold at 291, bought dec silver at 495.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:05 - ID#29048)
links again- after coffee

Gold & Silver

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:10 - ID#224363)
So where do we go today...
Europe and Asia down in a fairly large way. Yen recovered a bit from yesterday even through their market hit the 1986 low. December gold up a couple of bucks.

Maybe just maybe we we'll get back up above $290 today.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:22 - ID#350194)
Lean Hogs, Sugar, Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, Oil, Silver, Gold and Real Estate for '99!
PMF - I was just about to post that RJ's 1:43 seems to me to be VERY significant. We've heard the rumours of shortages developing around the world here and there for the last year, but all these major mints having a shortage all at once... and remember we are coming into peak demand for jewellery season as well!
Also significant is the recent CRB chart breaking out of its downward sloping resistance.
AAR - for those having difficulty breaking the code of last evenings 23:51, ( no it wasn't merely an invitation for Six Pack to come to dinner ) , all that you had to do was play the tape backwards, over, under, sideways, down, ( and inside out ) and you would have come up with the following:
I am now reliably convinced according to Mooney's PMME-BTCM analysis that the final bottom has been put place for gold bullion. ( E.+ O. Not withstanding ) .
***The recent 'spike-low was made in about 7 trading days.***
Compare that to the spike last DEC-JAN which took about 22 trading days to form. This was, mind-you a lower low which broke what would have been an absolutely beautiful double bottom on the charts, however it was so close ( to that previous bottom ) and the spike so sharp and perfect that on the long term charts it is still looking pretty. Even if we remain range bound ( as RJ believes possible ) for the rest of this year we are forming one heck of a grand base for the coming major bull. I look for Silver and Gold to remain flacid for a little while longer with Silver signalling the next upmove in earnest.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:22 - ID#43185)
I'm about through observing this submarine companies yellow sub. So far they haven't shown anything promising on their demo rides.

Day before yesterday, there were too many politicians.

Yesterday, they finally got around to finishing their cruise-around-on-the-surface demonstrations and were preparing to dive, when it was discovered a crewman down in his bunk had the radio on listening to Clinton speak. Well, i don't need to tell you how much hot air THAT let in.

Today, they are serious. They've taken out all the crews personal radios and tell me they are going to show me a dive like I've never seen before. I just stood there with my arms folded looking skeptical.

So, let's see if they mean business.

Otherwise, I'm going to go back looking for a shoe company.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:30 - ID#119358)
@to the bizzy man having no gold in his pocket........
soon I will accept the deed to your wells...wells which I did not have to dig....and if you are not quick in redefining your faulty concept of wealth, I will have your home. for gold finds more gold.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:31 - ID#43185)
GCZ8 292.6 ; SIZ8 499.5
Metals looking very good this morning. Globex pointing stiffly down for the DOW. Dollar down.

This looks like a good day for the metals and a bad day for the DOW, perhaps a VERY bad day for the DOW.

DAY traders will come in on the short side. If the DOW steadies and stays at least level after 1bout 11:00 thru say, 2:30 or so, the we'll see a rise at the end as day traders close out at the end of the day. Particularly in the last half hour or so.

If the DOW does not steady, but continues down... Well, upon occasion day traders decide to becom overnight position traders when conditions warrant. Like in the 500+ point decline or the almost 400 point bounce in the recent past and a few others.

I wouldn't be in the market by tomorrow. No sir.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:41 - ID#43185)
Dear Abbey
An optimist of great renown

Saw the future quite rosy

Till a fellow very nosey

Saw her charts were upside down

Burma Shave

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:41 - ID#147201)
codeman, The Hatt et al
Thanx very much for update on CLN. Looks like good demand is not far off. I will try to add to this, but I am on a time consuming project for a little while and will do what I can, Charlie

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:44 - ID#43185)
Big bang!
Quick! Check the charts.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:47 - ID#258427)
Bart Kitner...hello Bart...KITCO
Since Gold and Silver are up today...think maybe we could get the frames to upday...?? TIA

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:48 - ID#242325)
I say gold $315 way before Dow 10,000. We will see $%315 gold by early 1999. But Dow 10,000 may take many years.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 08:56 - ID#147201)
APH re your trades
I have a lot of respect for your reports on trades. I would appreciate any comments that would educate me further. Please respond to Thanx a lot for your work, Charlie

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:05 - ID#43185)
Somebody go wake up Golden Prophet
Get your keyboard with the big keys limbered up.

Make sure you have a spare.

That is, if anyone at all will be able to get on Kitco today.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:05 - ID#240331)
Paris 5.5 % down....stronger Gold....weak $$ S&P future 28 pts down...
WJC video soon...everything looks on time.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:07 - ID#43185)
Anybody want to guess where the DOW will be after the first ten minutes?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:07 - ID#228128)
Thanks for the update. I'm long gold via Durban Deep and Harmony and short the S&P.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:11 - ID#317193) plan in place...
Huge derivative exposure...either public funds cover the counterparty risk gonna see a lot of institutions in crash.

This is a risk...not a what Japan does, not what it says. Like a deer in the headlights..I thinks. Hope they fund the loss but I'm begining to have doubts.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:12 - ID#224363)
@Gollum (wagers)
According to my watch, I have 10 minutes before the markets open.

I will go way out on a limb and suggest that we will be down 210 points within 15 minutes.

Of course I can't wager anything since all my money is invested in gold and gold stocks.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:12 - ID#43185)
Y2K problem solved!!!
Except for whichever financial institutions might still be afloat, of course.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:14 - ID#43185)
They might well fund the loss. The question is how devalued will whatever they fund the loss with be?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:15 - ID#43185)
I'm not quite that pessimistic. I'll bet minus 180.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:16 - ID#317193)
@Gollum...catch 22.....
For Japan and the world.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:16 - ID#240331)
Dow down...
Five minutes to plunge...Fasten seat belts and refrain from smoking...
Have a nice trip...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:17 - ID#431200)
How extraordinary have the market's recent swings been, in context?
Thursday, September 17, 1998 Market Beat Some Analysts See Volatility Giving Way to a Rising Marke By TOM PETRUNO
 Everybody knows the stock market has been swinging wildly.
But depending on the yardstick you use, the recent volatility has been either downright historic--or historically not very significant at all.
More important, some Wall Street pros are making the case that, if volatility is indeed at extreme levels, it's more likely to give way to healthy market gains over the next year than heavy new losses.
How extraordinary have the market's recent swings been, in context?
One simple gauge of volatility is to take the market's high price for the year, subtract the low price for the year, and divide the difference by the low price.
By that measure, the Dow Jones industrial average has swung by 23.9% so far this year.
That may seem high, but it's actually below the annual swings of 1995 through 1997 ( 36.1%, 30.3% and 29.2%, respectively ) .
How can that be? In each of those years, the market rocketed higher--the type of volatility that few investors complain about.
By other measures, however, the market appears significantly more volatile lately on a day-to-day basis. Richard Eakle, head of Eakle Associates in Fair Haven, N.J., and a veteran market analyst, notes that the New York Stock Exchanges first-tier trading curbs--which restrict certain computerized trading when the Dow moves more than 50 points up or down--have kicked in 240 times so far this year.
That's far more than the 190 times the curbs kicked in by this time last year, he says.
Intuitively, many investors would probably say the market has been vastly more volatile, and Eakle agrees. "The equity market has become much more commoditized" over the last two years, he says--meaning, prices on a short-term basis have experienced the kind of dramatic swings more common in trading of commodities such as corn or crude oil.
A hedge fund manager, Eakle says that in his hunt for securities to either bet with, or against, "we've been finding many stocks [this year] that move up or down 20% in a matter of hours or a couple of days. That is unprecedented."
Jeffrey Applegate, chief market strategist at brokerage Lehman Bros. in New York, likewise believes that market volatility has become extreme.
Since blue-chip stocks peaked July 17, the Dow has experienced 100-point-plus moves in 17 of 42 trading sessions, or more than 40% of the time. ( Even at its peak of 9,337.97, 100 Dow points was meaningful--a 1% move. )
Even more striking is the market's volatility as measured by its standard deviation, or the variation of its price moves relative to historical norms.
Applegate calculates that the blue-chip Standard & Poor's 500-stock index's variance over the last 12 months is the highest since at least 1950, with the exception of the horrendous 1973-'74 bear market and the 1987 crash period.
"Volatility," Applegate notes, "is another way to look at risk--it's [a measure of] the riskiness of the returns" earned on stocks.
Not surprisingly, his explanation for the surge in volatility, and in particular the market's plunge in August, is rooted in the fundamentals underlying stocks.
"Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong" over the last few months, Applegate says--Japan's woes, Southeast Asia's continuing economic collapse, Russia's ruble debacle and the spreading of that virus to Latin America.
All of that has raised major questions about the outlook for U.S. corporate profits and the U.S. economy in general.
But looking back at other periods of extreme stock volatility, Applegate says they usually give way to a rising market over the following 12 months, rather than a flat or falling market. That was true, he says, following volatility peaks in 1963, 1974, 1984, 1987 and 1991.
The implicit assumption, of course, is that we've seen the volatility peak in this downturn--in other words, that the fundamentals, and the market, don't deteriorate further, in even crazier trading.
Or as Applegate puts it, "If the world isn't coming to an end, volatility ought to come down from here, and stock returns ought to go up."
Eakle agrees. "Volatility occurs at important inflection points in the market," he says. "Usually, it means a great bottom" in prices.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:18 - ID#240331)
I raise to minus 200

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:20 - ID#224363)
I'll be back in 16 minutes to check...
So far we have a -180, -200 and a -210 for the Dow this morning.

See you all in 16 minutes for an update.

PS. ABX and PDG currently show a flat opening

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:28 - ID#333126)
DOW in 10 minutes
well, i've got 5 minuts left - i'll go for -80

no spare cash to bet tho'

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:31 - ID#43185)
DOW -123
Down 123 in first ten minutes. Homestake and Hecla both opened up an eigth.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:36 - ID#43185)
DOW -181
Down 181 in first fifteen minutes.

Next question. Where do you think it will be at the end of the day?

Gandalf the White
(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:37 - ID#433301)
Down 180 in the first 15 minutes WINS

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:39 - ID#43185)
Dive! Dive! Dive!
Does this mean the market has discounted Clinton's speech?

Or is it the reaction to hearing him say he is not going to resign?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:39 - ID#333126)
Captain Gollum
sir, incoming flash traffic orders us to make the yellow submarine's depth 6 fathoms. pronto!

shall i flood those politicians out of the ballast tanks now?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:40 - ID#224363) cheat !!
How much of your portfolio did you have to sell today to hit your -180 target. I don't want to bet against you anymore, you cheat.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:41 - ID#316256)
Placed a market order for 1100 shares of NEM before the market opened. NEM closed yesterday at 18 7/8. The order got filled at 19 1/2! Up 5/8. I know its dangerous to place market orders before the opened bell, but what can I say, I'm a GOLD BUG: )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:42 - ID#43185)
To make it easier, I moved them to the torpedo tubes.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:45 - ID#258427)
Bart...KITCO...I'll stay away from g o l d eagle
if you will get the FRAMES TO UPDATE...Deal?? TIA

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:45 - ID#431200)
Japanese Lawmakers Still Deadlocked Over Banking Reform
By Sandra SugawaraWashington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, September 17, 1998
TOKYO, Sept. 16Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its opponents remained deadlocked tonight over how to clean up the nation's troubled banking system, which has been blamed for choking off economic growth and adding to global financial instability.
Two Clinton administration officials visiting Tokyo today, U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and Undersecretary of State Stuart E. Eizenstat, reiterated long-standing U.S. frustration with Japan's slowness in dealing with its banking crisis.
The administration has argued that fixing Japan's banks would help reinvigorate the world's second-largest economy, which would help rescue other ailing economies in Asia and elsewhere.
Japanese banks are burdened with hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of loans that are not being repaid, which has made it increasingly difficult for them to make new loans, depriving companies of fresh capital and stalling economic activity. The continuing erosion of Long Term Credit Bank of Japan, a major lender, has added to the urgency of the problem, analysts said.But the LDP and the opposition parties, led by Japan's Democratic Party, differ dramatically in their approaches to the crisis. And because the LDP does not have a majority in the upper house of parliament, it cannot pass any measures without some opposition votes.
LDP officials have said that none of Japan's major 19 banks should be allowed to fail because of the risk to the financial system, and they advocate using a $97 billion fund to inject money into weak but viable banks -- a strategy referred to as a "soft landing."
In contrast, the opposition groups have advocated a "hard landing" approach involving strict disclosure and bad-loan reserve requirements that Democratic Party leaders acknowledge could result in the closure of about half of the major banks in Japan. They also want to eliminate the bailout fund.Instead the opposition groups have discussed establishing a smaller fund that would enable the government to nationalize banks that have insufficient capital. It also would allow the government to inject money into banks that agreed to buy the good assets -- the loans that are repaid on time -- from banks that have been liquidated.
Until recently, the LDP had been planning to enact banking measures before Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's meeting in New York next week with President Clinton, to highlight Obuchi's ability to lead Japan out of its recession. That hope is fading.
"Chances for a breakthrough tonight are remote," Hideyuki Aizawa, a senior LDP lawmaker, said this evening, according to Bloomberg News.
Naoko Nemoto, a banking analyst at Standard & Poor's Corp. who has been critical of Japan's handling of its weak banks, said the opposition groups' proposal also has major risks. Abolishing the bailout fund could make the financial system "more unstable than it is now," Nemoto said. Also, if the government allows Long Term Credit Bank to fail, she said, that would render worthless its pledge to protect the major 19 banks.
But Eisei Ito, chairman of the Democratic Party's policy research committee, said a banking industry shakeout is necessary because there are too many banks in Japan. "Tax money should not be used to prop up a bankrupt bank," he said.
The Democratic Party has argued that nationalization of the banks will prevent panic, because the government can wind down the banks' activities in an orderly fashion and meet the banks' international obligations. The good assets would be sold off to other banks, and the bad loans would go to an institution modeled after the Resolution Trust Corp., which was used to clean up the U.S. savings and loan crisis.
LDP officials have warned that accelerated disclosure of capital levels and bad loans could cause panic. But the Democratic Party has argued that full disclosure will prevent viable institutions from being hurt by false rumors and will help restore confidence in Japan's banking system.
Japan's TBS television station reported that the Bank of Japan is preparing to provide "special loans" to Long Term Credit Bank. The Democratic Party wants Long Term Credit Bank nationalized.
Special correspondent Akiko Kashiwagi contributed to this report.
 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:45 - ID#224363)
I guess this is what you call a bad opening...

 Alert: Nyse Sets Index Arbitrage Trading Curbs At 0934 Edt/1334 Gmt - Reuters - Thu 9:37am
 Alert: Nasdaq Falls 51 Points, Or 3 Percent, At Open To 1638 - Reuters - Thu 9:37am
 Alert: Brazil Bovespa Down 10 Pct, Triggers Circuit Breaker Halting Trade - Reuters - Thu 9:37am

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:49 - ID#43185)
Fund managers:
Please check your portfolios for percentage of gold/silver stocks. Do NOT go near windows of tall buildings.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:49 - ID#333126)
watch those 30 year bonds!
5.17% yield!

and still falling ( maybe )

would anyone recommend long bond puts?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:50 - ID#284255)
US Economic data - info and charts
MsClennan Oscillator
Similiar to the swing chart.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:51 - ID#208393)
Paper into roubles into $US into fire - It will all burn!
Russia says to print money to buy t-bills

MOSCOW, Sept 17 ( Reuters ) - Russia's central bank said on Thursday
it would allow some local banks to use some of their reserves at the
bank to help clients make payments, and would ask them later to sell it frozen GKO treasury bills and OFZ bonds to replenish the reserves.

Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Andrei Kozlov told Reuters banks might have to use most of their 27 billion roubles ( $1.85 billion ) of reserves at the bank. When asked where the central bank would get money from to buy the paper, Kozlov said: ``Emission, of course emission.''

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:52 - ID#43185)
Let em raise a bit more. There are an awful lot of carry trade guys ( yen,gold,marks,silver,etc. ) that are going to be unwinding in a couple of days. The margin callers will be knocking at their door.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:56 - ID#43185)
GCZ8 293.3 SIZ8 499.5 DOW -173
Morning rush has slowed to check bearings and take another deep breath. Now we watch how the market does up thru lunch.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 09:58 - ID#254321)
The markets and Music
sharefin: Good analogy. And with music we can see the future to some degree, because with some music it is possible to predict the next note without ever hearing the piece before.

Also -- music is a complex, often apparently chaotic collection of sounds -- not the simple continous sharp frequency so appealing to the engineer or mathematician. Live itself is chaotic with cycles hidden within -- only to be deciphered imperfectly by the human mind. The stock markets are an unusually convenient window into this apparent chaos ( and hidden order ) . Only the supreme being understands it all ( and, I think ) is constantly juggling our reality so that cause and effect remain connected for our benefit. Without causality, we could not develop our consciousness.

Think it is time to add to short/intermediate term gold holdings? APH thinks so. I am a bit worried about another gold fire sale from Europe or South America if the markets head south once more. But -- gold cannot drop too much farther, and 280 does seem to be a bottom, irrespective of whether ANOTHER was right about the BIS buying at this price. Regardless, we know that the BIS would start buying at a certain point, simply because they would see a bargain when it came their way -- since the BIS and the Rothschilds are undoubtedly still linked.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:02 - ID#147201)
RJ re your info
Do you happen to have an email for the AUSTRIAN Mint? If so, please email me many thanx, Charlie

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:02 - ID#43185)
And with complete causality we would be mindless automatons. Thank God for quantuum freedom.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:05 - ID#390415)
True to form
Nice to see that lately gold is consistently behaving as the "contrarian" it is supposed to be.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:05 - ID#342376)
Dec Gold up $3.00
So when does the bond bubble burst? Gold goes ballistic when that happens. Where's GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:09 - ID#320136)
To All: Central Bank Leasing of Gold
Is it conceivable that the Central Banks lease their gold
primarily to their own gov't mints ( to themselves ) ? In other
words: whatever the leasing rates are, in reality, they
are merely book entries, and of no consequence. What I
believe is that this has been so far a successful attempt
to restrain the POG so as to enable them to buy as cheaply
as possible, and thereby making a vast profit on the sale
of newly minted commemerative coins, etc. ??? After a
number of years of this practice, it is likely that the
gold market will rebound enormously especially during and
after the collapse of the pandemic stock markets and fiat

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:14 - ID#284255)
I wonder the sound of music when the ping pongs balls run amok in the house of derivatives?

Perhaps a 20% fall in the Dow will trigger ping pong balls cascading in all directions?

Truely we are at the crossroads of a time never seen before.

The road ahead lies fraught with little white balls bouncing mercilessly against the pillars of debt and society as we know it.

What's going on?
Where's the bargoon hunters?
Where's BC and the PPT?
Where's the bottom?

Wait till next week..........

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:23 - ID#342376)
@ NightWriter
Agreed, As soon as people realize this new paradigm stuff is a bunch of bull ( which is happening now ) Gold will go back to it's rightfull place.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:24 - ID#346236)
BEWARE of 12 October 98
Be out of all paper NLT 12 Oct 98, also stay home on that day,pray for the salvation of your family.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:24 - ID#289357)
@ Don't get carried away with this gold rally

If I read the Elliott waves correctly...using a 30 minute chart of GCZ8 we have 5 waves down from the high near $300 ( wave A ) and are now in a 3 wave counter-trend move ( wave B ) , up from about 290.5. I look for this one to stop short of 295 then begin back down ( in wave C ) to the mid- 280's ( at least ) .

All IMHO, of course. Take care.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:25 - ID#373284)
got emergency candles...Cyalume light sticks...Oil lanterns...anything as backup...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:27 - ID#240331)
Minus 200 was hit.... I win ; ) )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:28 - ID#373284)
Marshall, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...October 12th...
What are your thoughts for that date or there abouts...just curious...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:30 - ID#402151)

Was hoping for a few dollars lower, but I doubt it now. Went long Nov calls this morning. Mooney & RJ--I wouldn't be complacent about gold. Next year will undoubtedly see much higher gold but I'm guessing 360-400. I don't see the kind of chart formation I see now very often. This thing is getting ready to swoop up to 320 in the next couple of weeks. We could still spend a few days here below $300 Dec but I wouldn't count on it and miss a great buying opportunity.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:35 - ID#43185)
DOW -218
After a short stop at the 7900 level to pick up some dipsters, we are contiueing our descent.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:35 - ID#270253)
Technical Update Returns
I am back from a vacation, and to set the record straight, I was fully invested in gold shares prior to the August collapse and September rebound. I just held and ignored them as it was an extremely oversold situation that would not last long.

The Toronto Gold Mining McClellan Summation Index has been rising since a September 1st low. It is now rising quickly and looks healthy at this point.

The New Lows on Toronto mining issues have dried up, but not to a level of less than 6 issues for several days in a row. This is a lagging indicator of good health, and will be watched carefully. ( New York general stocks have the same problem right now...too many new lows each day ) .

The ratio of the Worden Brothers gold index to the price of gold reached an oversold extreme three standard deviations below normal at the end of August. This level has not been re-visited for ten trading days. This is a positive signal from where I sit.

The Toronto Gold Index hit a low of 4228 on the week of Sept 4th. This creates a trend line rising at 2% per week to be used as a stop loss. This week it is at 4399. As long as this holds, I am in.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:37 - ID#255151)
Morning Commentary

1 ) Mooney-- Got some Gold on the way from
Kitco. Be sure to get some pictures of the
Great Northern Goldbug gathering. Would
advise against video taping, however. That
only seems to get folks in trouble! 2 )
Speaking of video tapes, does the PPT swing
into action when the grand jury testimony is
played, or does it only apply to live
speaches? 3 ) Gold stocks are following Gold, not the general equities markets. 4 ) Recall how small the market capitalization of Gold stocks are. Isn't Microsoft larger than all the stocks of the XAU put together? 5 ) Von Finck is my pal! We will watch this together, Ja? Oui.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:43 - ID#210235)
Sorry guys, there is no plan. No wonder the markets are spooked, the PPT has no clothes, either.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:44 - ID#333126)
place your bets on today's Dow closing level
the ticket counter is open. only honour and reputation at stake. ;- )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:45 - ID#316193)
Quote of the Day -- Let's All Read it Again on USAGOLD
"Why, in God's name, would anyone want to continue along the
incredible path of failure that has been the record of the
IMF? That to my mind would be insane!" Bernard Sanders

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:48 - ID#254321)
Flying ping pong balls and organ music
sharefin: Perhaps one needs cathedral ceilings to observe the intercontinental effects of the derivatives trades. Perhaps those ping pong balls should have two or three booster stages. My guess is that we will see the commotion in two ways --1 ) more liquidity panics like the one last week where it appears that alot of sponsors -- hedge funds, banks -- pulled the plug on their 'Neeson ( sp? ) ' trader types ( that Barings trader ) . And 2 ) Very bad quarterly banking reports in a few months. May be worthwhile to watch the equity values of those 9 or so US banks that hold 25 trillion US in derivatives.

I think gold equities might actually go up, so I raised the ante a bit -- liquid funds now up to 25% gold equities, rest cash. Foreign currency investments will probably do the best, as even a crash will not touch these.

Why do I think gold will go up this time? First, APH is buying, second the WJC testimony tapes are coming out tomorrow, and the consensus is that he did not handle the Grand jury questions at all well. They will be very damaging to the WJC illusion. Third, commodity indices seem to be bottoming. Many us crops wiped out this year -- especially Texas. EB will know which ones are a good buy better than I.

Why are they coming out? Simply because that congressional committee knows that the tapes are coming out anyway. We are repeating the Nixon fiasco, and since the fundamentals of the American image are in question, people will move to gold. Can't have a strong US dollar when the president is about to be impeached.

I will be prepared to bail out of gold quickly if deflation returns in a big way -- nothing on the horizon at the moment.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:51 - ID#430221)
Gollum's brilliant "Dear Abbey" post of 8:41
In case anyone missed it - and good luck with your yellow sub Gollum - I enjoy your posts enormously, and have learned a lot from them.

An optimist of great renown
Saw the future quite rosy
Till a fellow very nosey
Saw her charts were upside down
Burma Shave

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:57 - ID#320202)
..please, anyone........I want to know
.....what is PPT standing for, and what is ???
thank you

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:57 - ID#35571)
Thank you. How are the three bears?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 10:57 - ID#224363)
I still don't get the sense of urgency from the general public and market manipulators.

I'm going to guess -160 on the day.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:00 - ID#298259)
@Mike Stewart
Thanks much for your technical updates. I follow them closely relative to my positions in Fidelity Select Gold and Fidelity Precious Metals whose top holdings are more heavily impacted by the TGL than the XAU or HUI.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:01 - ID#35571)
I'm more pessimistic than that. I'll pick -480

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:02 - ID#289357)

Just wait until we get a weekly DOW close below 7400 -then the panic will begin. A huge number of people will quickly discover that they have made a very big mistake.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:09 - ID#432130)
Lady Bug's question...
Id like to know what Fiat money is also. Somebody please answer the question. Thanks : ) Got Gold?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:10 - ID#29048)
PPT stands for Plunge Protection Team. Much has been posted here about them. You can search on the internet for news articles. They are a group of people with government money, who intervene in the market place to prevent a crash.

Fiat money is money not backed by anything other than "good faith" and credit. It is in circulation by command or "fiat" of the government. Real money is gold and silver.

Hope that helps

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:10 - ID#254321)
Free Will
Gollum: Agreed. Despite past - present - future being linked, somehow we have been blessed with the power of free will. It could be because we have the power to alter our reality -- if we humans all work together, we could end wars, and reach for the stars -- right now. All that is holding us back right now is the greed of a few humans that control our wealth, and the desire of some humans to dominate us. I fear for Russia along these lines. On the other hand -- this business with WJC shows that an awakening of sorts is occuring -- much of it via the Net.

No dictator or despot or mass murderer can function without support from the general public. You could argue that Hitler was not to blame for what he did, but the German people for following his orders. We Americans are not much better -- but I hope we are all learning to be less gullible.

Once we understand our power to change our future on earth, we can reach our destiny in the stars. My guess is that we will have visitors who will welcome us when this happens. Hope I live long enough to see it.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:10 - ID#227290)
Lady Bug & Definitions
Lady Bug,

PPT stands for Plunge Protection Team. There are those who believe the U.S. government has a system for propping up the stock markets that is unknown to the public.

Fiat Money refers to the type of monetary system we live under in which the currency is unbacked by anything of value, such as gold, and is backed only by the confidence of the people accepting it as valuable.

The Preacher

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:12 - ID#30126)
PPT = Plunge Protection Team. Fiat money is paper money backed by full faith and credit......

What are Federal Reserve notes and how are

they different from United States notes?

Federal Reserve notes are legal tender currency notes. The twelve Federal Reserve Banks issue them into circulation pursuant to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. A commercial bank belonging to the Federal Reserve System can obtain Federal Reserve notes from the Federal Reserve Bank in its district whenever it wishes . It must pay for them in full, dollar for dollar, by drawing down its account with its district Federal Reserve Bank.

Federal Reserve Banks obtain the notes from our Bureau of Engraving and Printing ( BEP ) . It pays the BEP for the cost of producing the notes, which then become liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, and obligations of the United States Government. Congress has specified that a Federal Reserve Bank must hold collateral equal in value to the Federal Reserve notes that the Bank receives. This collateral is chiefly gold certificates and United States securities. This provides backing for the note issue. The idea was that if the Congress dissolved the Federal Reserve System, the United States would take over the notes ( liabilities ) . This would meet the requirements of Section 411, but the government would also take over the assets, which would be of equal value. Federal Reserve notes represent a first lien on all the assets of the Federal Reserve Banks, and on the collateral specifically held against them.

Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything. This has been the case since 1933. The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy. In another sense, because they are legal tender, Federal Reserve notes are "backed" by all the goods and services in the economy.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:12 - ID#429226)
US$ and T Bonds... a major divergence which may be unsustainable is
the present rise in the bonds with a rapid downturn in the US$. My

impression is that foreign countries want independence from the dollar.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:13 - ID#432130)
Thanks Preacher...
: )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:15 - ID#403234)
I got my Canadian dollarette on DOW -190 for the day.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:16 - ID#208393)
It seems to me....
Gold bullion and coins are slowly increasing in value as they are being accumulated and hoarded. Gold stocks are recovering much slower as sellers gleefully recover their past losses. Currencies will burn and the equities will plunge. Be patient, there is still time and the captains of finance still have a few moves in their arsenal to manipulate and fabricate.

Early Riser
(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:18 - ID#228275)
fiat money
American College Dictionary:

fiat money --- U.S. paper currency made legal tender by a fiat
of the government, but not based on or convertible into coin

'Nuff said.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:19 - ID#333126)
@Gollum & PMF
I'll wager the Dow ends around 300 down.

maybe i shoulda bought those puts today after all... hmm....

oh well. time to go sleep. it's getting late here in Sydney.

go gold! ( the kitco mantra? )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:21 - ID#284255)
What of the BCPPPT?
Bill Clinton Political Plunge Protection Team.

They do tend to work in a concerted effort.

I would now have about 8 snapshots of when they have stepped into the market at the same time as BC turns up on TV.
The time BC was overseas RR stood in for him.

Is this market or man for real?

I guess this is the sad state of free markets.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:24 - ID#298259)
Just what I like about you...always direct and to the point. We really could use your Market Comments are one of the few here who always give the key resistance numbers to watch for in your technical analysis. I know it has been really ugly lately but most of us here are in it for the long haul.

Glad to see you back.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:26 - ID#320202)
Thank you,
seems to me Alan Geenspan is wiser than most credit him, if he would up the interest rates, it would push the markets higher on thin ice, and would hurt even more folks,.....have the feeling he knows what's coming !!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:29 - ID#214218)
Gold on the JSE
I have made 35% profit for last couple of weeks on The Johannesburg Stock Exchange.My current portfolio is Anglogold 30% , Gold Fields 30% ,Harmony 10% 'Randfontein 10 % ,Western Areas 10% & Durban deep 10%.Some of the speculative stocks i have is Gold Field core warrants.These stocks are coming out of new lows & is busy climbing rapidly.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:30 - ID#284255)
For those who want a reality check?

Never before have I seen such a broad analysis of the criticalness of Y2k in todays society.

They have disected each area and detailed the dangers and the speed at with these failures will have an effect upon society.

Unfortunately these files are PDF's and there are 64 of them.
Trust the British.

Each file has one important page out of five.
The whole outcome of all these files could have been put into one file.
But I doubt that they wanted many to bother.

Enough to say it gave me the willies.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:31 - ID#30126)
Tomorrow is the Triple Witch.
So is today's market action positioning for the witch, or something more??? On another note, I had a Modem failure yesterday. So I replaced the modem, installed the driver as per instruction, '...compatible with Win 95 and higher...'. Famous last words. The driver was a Win 95 VXD file which gave my Win NT Remote Access Service a fatal case of driver indigestion.... Without any warning, I might add. After reloading Win NT 4.0 for the THIRD time this year... Yes Mr. Gates, you have a 'great' product.... :~!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:33 - ID#254321)
sharefin: The BCPPT just ran out of credibility. No amount of cash can replace that. That rug in the Oval office has nearly sacred significance to the average American, so its desecration approaches sacriledge. I think RR and AG are distancing themselves, and are preparing for the moves in the markets, given the bearish mode we are in. Perfect opportunity to bring the US dollar down.

Hopefully the movers and shakers are getting ready to visit WJC and give him an ultimatum. He will acquiesce in a few months when he sees his popularity ebb away to nothing. If not, that shady group that put him on the pedestal will forcibly remove him. Nixon resisted for months also, until the heat was too much.

Never thought it would happen this fast. When the press turns on you, it is not a pretty sight. We are seeing history in the making ---- the awakening, born of the information revolution. Things are actually getting better for humankind, not worse. Just hope we evolve fast enough. Hard to say. Regardless, hard times are just ahead.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:33 - ID#290172)
THIS is the way to distribute dividends!
FT, September 17, 1998

Tombstone announcement: Gold Fields-Results of the general meeting
1. Results of the general meeting: Rand Merchant Bank Limited is authorised to announce that, at the general meeting of GFSA shareholders held on Wednesday 16 September 1998, the requisite majority of GFSA shareholders approved the special and ordinary resolutions required to implement the distribution, in terms of section 60 of the Income Tax Act, 1993 ( Act 113 of 1993 ) of GFSA's interetes in Gold Fields Limited ( "GFL" ) and Standard Bank Investment Corporation Limited ( Stanbic ) by way of a dividend in SPECIE and reduction in share premium ( the share distribution" ) .

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:34 - ID#316193)
NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT -- Yesterday's Excellent Program Now Available

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:35 - ID#350179)
Fiat & other things
"Fiat money is paper money that is not backed by a commodity in the sense that people cannot trade it for a particular commodity at a fixed nominal price"

Meno: Good morning my dear Socrates.

Socrates: The gods favor me today, Meno. Why else would they have brought you to me? Here Ive been for days inquiring diligently about the nature of money. But nobody will tell me what it is. Hippocrates knows. But when I ask him what it is he just leads me around in circles. Will you help me?

Meno: Of course Socrates.

Socrates: Thank you Meno. I shall be eternally indebted to you. Now please tell me about money. Spare no insight. What is money?

Meno: Gold, silver, olive oil, salt. All of these and more are acceptable as money.

Socrates: Why are they acceptable?

Meno: Because they have value.

Socrates: What do you mean by value?

Meno: Well, everybody knows value when they see it. What is scarce has value. Those things created by the gods are most scarce because mortals cannot reproduce them.

Socrates: Will the things more scarce always have more value than things less scarce?

Meno: Quite right Socrates.

Socrates: Meno, have you conspired against me with Hippocrates?

Meno: What do you mean?

Socrates: You say, dear Meno, that what gives money value is scarcity and that those things created by the gods are most scarce. What among all that was created by the gods is most scarce?

Meno: Gold.

Socrates: Then gold has more value than anything else and will always have more value than something less scarce?

Meno: Yes. That is true.

Socrates: Tell me Meno, does gold have more value than food or water?

Meno: Infinitely so.

Socrates: Would you trade me all your gold for a weeks food and water?

Meno: Never.

Socrates: What if you were seven days travel from your home, you hadnt eaten in several days and you were in the middle of the dessert without food or water? Would you trade then?

Meno: ( Pause ) Probably.

Socrates: So need may be as important to determining value as scarcity?

Meno: Yes Socrates. That was my point.

Socrates: Tell me Meno, if later in the day of our trade, you found an oasis of trees baring dates which shaded a pool of good spring water, what would you say about value? Would you say that perception and desire are at least as important to determining value as need and scarcity?

Meno: That was exactly what I was getting at, dear Socrates.

Socrates: I cannot say how many good things Ive heard about your wisdom. Apparently, all of them are true. May the gods bless you, Meno.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:35 - ID#404312)

hourly charts looking very bullish

just shot my last cartridge-hope the bear is gone for good

charts say we could be looking at $305+ dec gold by tomorrow. 300 will not offer much resistance this time.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:37 - ID#214218)
Webmaster how about updating
your gold price it's stuck on Sep 15

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:39 - ID#29048)
Good post. Thanks!

Lurker 777
(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:39 - ID#317247)
Gold $370 before 10,000 DOW!
Sold my November 290 Puts but my gold coins increased in value 10X my losses. IMVHO Gold will increase by 27% before the same gains in the DOW.
We will not see DOW 10,000 before 2001.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:39 - ID#284255)
Cory Hamasaki bugging out
Boivin And O'Riley Join The "Ostrich Club"

Join the Ostrich Club for 10 minutes and leave wondering???

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:40 - ID#212197)
@Leland (Your: Quote of the Day -- Let's All Read it Again on USAGOLD)
I think the person who said this has the perception that the IMF would try very hard to do something good but always does the wrong thing in spite of all their goodminded attempts.

People usually "perceive" reality which means they project their own goodminded self into objects like the IMF. Perception and projection are very close phenomenons. Perception can be understood best, if one thinks of how a projector works. The projector casts a picture inside itself onto a real thing outside itself. What becomes visible is the picture inside of the projector covering the object upon which it is cast upon.

That's somehow what happens to those who perceive the IMF as an institution which tries to solve problems by doing something good. The projection of goodminded intent overcovers the real intent.

People who think the IMF makes mistakes should first try to find a non-perceptive approach to reality and then assess again.

The less we think we can second guess the intent of institutions acting in this troubled world, by making the underlying assumption that these institutions would want something constructive or good or solve a problem instead of using a given problem to take advantage of, the more I think we become able to capture reality and the true moving motives behind institutions.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:43 - ID#208393)
@JTF & Free Will
Excellent post. The Russian people are enduring a 43% rise in expenses during this past month. Corruption starts at the top and the average people suffer.
Your sentiment echoes those of Sir John Templeton's .....
"What you make of your life is up to you. You have all the tools and resources you need. Persistence is the key to success".

Monkee Person
(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:52 - ID#288105)
@Alta Gold begins production at Olinghouse.
Place your bets boyz and girlz.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 11:56 - ID#267344)
I found this on the site posted earlier by panda (scroll up a couple questions)
I thought there was no ammendment to the Constitution regarding gold and silver coin issued by the states! What gives??? clone... calling mozel or other legal gold dude in the know... help... severe distress... must have answers instead of questions... please respond....

Under 31 U.S.C. 5118 ( b ) as amended, "The United States Government may not pay out any gold coin. A person lawfully holding United States coins and currency may present the coins for currency . . . for exchange ( dollar for dollar ) for other United States coins and currency ( other than gold and silver coins ) that . . ." citizens may lawfully own. Although gold certificates are no longer produced and are not redeemable in gold, they still maintain their legal tender status. You may redeem the notes you have through the Treasury Department or any financial institution. The redemption, however, will be at the face value on the note. These notes may, however, have a "premium" value to coin and currency collectors or deal....


(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:05 - ID#288295)
Elliott Wave Theorist Special Report Sept 14th
EWT has issued a special report for the upcoming market debacle, and it is unbelievably bearish. According to EWT, we are now only in ( dn ) subwave ( 4 ) of wave 1, or entering into subwave ( 5 ) of wave 1.TARGETS:Wave 1 ( dn ) low Sept 18 +/- one trading day.Wave 2 ( up ) high Oct 2 +/- one trading day. This is a rebound above present levels.Wave 3 ( dn ) low November 2-10 target Nov 6.Wave 4 ( up ) high November 10-18 target Nov 10Wave 5 ( dn ) low Nov 30-Dec 7 target Dec 4HUGE volatility is forecast - their chart ends up just above 2000 on the DOW, but intermediate targets are not listed. I would not ( ever ) take EWT to the bank, but this thing scares the crap out of me. Take care.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:05 - ID#335379)
Hello Alberich:
My "perception" is that the IMF is an illegal, evil institution that has in mind the control and destruction of all peoples. Any "good intent" by the IMF is purely a "projection" to the masses through the media. The IMF does nothing with good intent. They know the intended consiquences of thier actions.
I hope that noone thinks I'm a little dubious or undecided about my perceptions in this area. Fiat + interest = debt enslavement.
Go gold, I mean really!

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:14 - ID#430221)
LouJan- your 10:09
About a month ago I raised the same point about the perported
8000 tonns of gold short in the market. I said, as you did, that I was
willing to bet that if this was a true figure that most of these
shorts were from the Central Banks to the Treasuries of their respective

I even e-mailed Veneroso stating that I respected his figures but
not his conclusions. I said that I was not naive and in NO WAY could
the price of gold be under $300 if that short position was for real.
"There is something that you are either missing or not telling us."
I then proceded to suggest to him that since the short position was not
one that could ever be covered that it was never intended to be covered
because the gold was simply leased Back to the respective Tresuries
in anticipation of the Central banks going bust and/or the setting up
of another currency system.

I have e-mailed many people and analysts over the past few months
and have received a reply ( including from Veneroso on another point )
from all of them. But this time I received no reply at all. I figured
that I had hit the nail on the head!!!

My congratulations to you on coming up with this great insight. The
other purpose was to keep the price of gold down so certain countries
( Japan? ) could buy as cheaply as possible. It worked to say the least.

There is still a short position out there that will help drive the
price higher but increased demand will be the main factor.

Gold is headed much higher but the gold stocks are headed the
highest of all. Leverage and earnings potential.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:18 - ID#347235)
Where did you get this info? The same place you got your DEFCON?
Also state exactly why you think this date is significant so on Oct 13 we will know whether or not you are as I suspect a complete whacko.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:20 - ID#273432)
Previous post on EWT

Sorry about the line compression - it was nicely spaced in the preview. Duh.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:28 - ID#430221)
What the stock market is for

What Is The Stock Market's Real Purpose?

SUSIE GHARIB: Investors sometimes forget that stocks were originally
created to help companies grow capital. Not to fund retirement plans. So
says author, Terry Savage in tonight's Money File.
exist? Is it a giant casino where everyone gets house odds and is
guaranteed to come out a winner over the long run? Is it a lottery
ticket guaranteed to pay off when you retire? Well, given the
performance of the stock market over the past eight years, it's no
surprise that many people believe the market exists just to provide a
secure future for them and their children. Not true. We've seen the
stock market create wealth seemingly out of thin air. In recent weeks,
we've also seen wealth simply disappear. Many people forget that the
major job of the market is to provide capital for growing businesses.
When a company goes public, the founders are suddenly wealthy. Not only
in the cash they receive, but in the market value of their remaining
holdings. The shares sold by the company bring in capital to grow the
business or pay off debt. Now, if the company is successful, rising
earnings will lead people to pay higher prices to own a share of the
business. Rising share prices lead to a feeling of wealth, boosting
economic activity and consumer confidence. That also works in reverse. A
slowing business climate leads to lower earnings and falling share
prices, and less economic activity. But the stock market itself doesn't
care about your retirement plans. Its job is just to price capital for
business growth. Now, history tells us that the stock market has
provided extraordinary gains over the long run. Taking into account, not
only facts, but investors current emotions, as well. I'm Terry Savage.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:37 - ID#430221)
What the stock market is for by Terry Savage

What Is The Stock Market's Real Purpose?

SUSIE GHARIB: Investors sometimes forget that stocks were originally
created to help companies grow capital. Not to fund retirement plans. So
says author, Terry Savage in tonight's Money File.
exist? Is it a giant casino where everyone gets house odds and is
guaranteed to come out a winner over the long run? Is it a lottery
ticket guaranteed to pay off when you retire? Well, given the
performance of the stock market over the past eight years, it's no
surprise that many people believe the market exists just to provide a
secure future for them and their children. Not true. We've seen the
stock market create wealth seemingly out of thin air. In recent weeks,
we've also seen wealth simply disappear. Many people forget that the
major job of the market is to provide capital for growing businesses.
When a company goes public, the founders are suddenly wealthy. Not only
in the cash they receive, but in the market value of their remaining
holdings. The shares sold by the company bring in capital to grow the
business or pay off debt. Now, if the company is successful, rising
earnings will lead people to pay higher prices to own a share of the
business. Rising share prices lead to a feeling of wealth, boosting
economic activity and consumer confidence. That also works in reverse. A
slowing business climate leads to lower earnings and falling share
prices, and less economic activity. But the stock market itself doesn't
care about your retirement plans. Its job is just to price capital for
business growth. Now, history tells us that the stock market has
provided extraordinary gains over the long run. Taking into account, not
only facts, but investors current emotions, as well. I'm Terry Savage.


Savage makes a great point doesn't he. Most of us forget that debt
has first claim on a corporation not equity. With all the debt out there
even debt will decline in value. No wonder the stocks in Asia lost 80
to 90% of their value. Can that happen here? You better believe it!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:41 - ID#41338)
Silverbaron A Word of Thanks to Ya

Thank you for providing the Elliot Wave update. Much appreciated.
If been closely following Yvan Augers comments on the XAU made last Friday and they appear to be unfolding almost to a tee with the exception of today's upswing in to price of gold. That is, unless the XAU hit its bottom yesterday and fell short of the 61-58 target level indicated by Yvan.
Any comments as I'm not all that experienced with reading the Elliot Wave charts.



(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:52 - ID#252150)
Auric@POG&equity mkts
You stated that the POG does not follow stocks. I disagree. For the last few weeks the POG seems to be closely correlated to stocks. IMO, the reason is obvious: foreigners were late to the U.S. equity party & have been selling lately after suffering big losses ( around 20% in the last
2 months including FX losses. ) When they sell their stocks they convert back to their own currencies, thereby causing the USD to decline. The higher POG is directly correlated to the lower USD.

With all the problems that Japan & Germany are facing I don't think that the USD should decline much more from here & am looking for a rebound. However, as long as they are liquidating their equity positions the, USD will remain under pressure & POG should at least trade flat to slightly higher.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 12:57 - ID#335190)
Senior Banker's PANEL (Nonprofit group) @ Debt write down-Taxpayers pay-Print Money. (Russia EH!)
September 17, 1998

Bankers predict Asian financial crisis will spread

HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Senior bankers warned today the Asian financial crisis could spread and called for industrialized countries to take swift and radical action to ward off a global economic meltdown.

Sun Bae Kim, vice-president and co-director of Asian economic research at Goldman Sachs ( Asia ) Hong Kong, said Asia's debts need to be written down and that governments would end up footing the bill for private companies' debts.

Simon Ogus, managing director for Asian economics at Warburg Dillon Read, said that to pull the world out of the turmoil, the U.S. Federal Reserve must take the lead -- not just by cutting interest rates, but by increasing money supply.

What is needed is "a wake-up call to the Europeans and the Americans that actually Asia's problems are their problems," he said.

The panel was organized by the Asia Society, a nonprofit organization.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:01 - ID#215249)
Monkee Person Alta
Alta is hedged there bet until February 1999 at $335/oz. and thereafter at $280/oz. through the end of 2001. Can they get out of this arrangement if gold move up?

John Disney
(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:03 - ID#24135)
The east-dagga story.
for pictech ..
Ive been buying e-daggafomtein with proceeds from
durbs sales... sounds crazy but is amazing arbitrage ..
E-dagga has sold all their gold slimes dumps to
Anglogold ( to be treated by what used to be ERGO ) ..
For one share of e-dagga you get 0.0236 shares of
anglogold .. and you KEEP the e-dagga ..
E-dagga has 2 rands cash per share in the company PLUS
platinum slime dumps that Implats treats.
E-daggs trading about about 6.25 .. anglogold at 275...
0.0236 times 275 = 6.50 worth of anglogold which quite
liquid. SO 6.25 for e-dagga buys you 6.5 worth of anglo
gold PLUS 2 rands cash in e-dagga plus their plats
dumps. No risk on company break up as they have SIX
employees ( how bout dat ) ...
By the way congratulations on your timing..

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:05 - ID#280214)
Internet use "causes" depression!?
A recent university study found a correlation between interneting and depression - seen here as gloom & doom. {I saw it on TV but don't recall university} They attributed it to time taken away from interpersonal and family interactions caused by internet surfing & impersonal cyber "relations". Perhaps there are a few other reasons.
1 ) lack of sunlight ( SAD or Seasonal Affectation Disorder )
2 ) emissions from monitors - including electromagnetic & video flicker
3 ) disturbed diurnal cycles & sleep patterns ( like shift workers have )
4 ) diets consisting of junk food and caffeine and/or tequila ;- )
5 ) the mind-numbing effects of bonehead sites ( unfrequented by us here )
6 ) sites and discussion groups who KNOW TOO MUCH about what is REALLY IS GOING ON. We see this here regarding our awareness of oncoming trouble with markets, economies, governments, Y2K, etc. etc. Ignorance is bliss.

These reasons may help explain why Kitcoites in general are gloomier in their outlook than the general population. {Gloomier except for Gold's future that is.} What do you thing folks?

Some of us may find this site interesting
{though none of us have these symptoms - yea, right! - me an who else!}

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:06 - ID#27251)
metals specifically silver
I have watched the charts for some months now and have noticed that silver is basing out. My question for anyone who feels they might know is do you believe if the market falls precipitously that people would buy the metals as a hedge against possible bank failures or would they turn to cash only? Thanks

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:14 - ID#430221)
Thanks for the post. The call for the Fed to increase the money
supply rings true. The price of gold according to Jude Wanniski went
down because Greenspan has not provided enough liquidity to the world

My bet is that with the US not lowering interest rates that this
signals Japan that the bond rally is over. They will sell more and more
of their treasury securities and the Fed will simply buy them from
the Japaneese. This will increase liquidity, lower the dollar and boost
gold back up to $350 to $375. Gold will probably overshoot and
then fall back. Look for this to happen over the next 12 months.

Gold stocks will be the main benefactors. Interest rates should rise
due to investor concerns over Fed policies and rising gold prices.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:14 - ID#320136)
Gold Dancer (re: CB leasing)
Thanks for your reply and valuable input. It's good to
know we are not alone in this thinking. In all the months
I've scanned the postings, this is the first time I've come
across any reference as to whom the "leasees" might be.
And the only conclusion I've come to along with you evidently
is that the government is the "pants", and shifting the gold
from one pocket to another, creating the illusion that gold
is "a very cheap commodity", thereby keeping the price
suppressed all this time ( all the while enabling them to keep on
accumulating ) . But this game can't last forever.

I agree with you entirely that the 8,000 ton estimate of
overhang may well be skewed. Certainly we're fast approaching
the turn around, and gold demand will escalate at the same
time as the bloated stock market retreats.

Keep up your encouraging postings!


(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:16 - ID#269128)
Black Thursday?...
A little hesitancy out there but not much sign of PANIC.
No, looks like we wait for the next lunar cycle.....
BLACK FRIDAY Oct. 16 1998

long bitter cold winter in the north.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:19 - ID#335190)
Monica Lewinsky is a Russian Spy@During the Cold War such statements worked,Worth a try eh!blew it?

The Russian government on 17 December extended the deadline by one week ( to 25 September ) for investors to decide whether to accept ruble bonds or a combination of ruble and dollar bonds in exchange for the short-term treasury bonds on which Russia earlier defaulted.

Bloomberg reported that some investors are reluctant to make a choice because they believe that Russia will offer local banks preferential treatment.

According to ITAR-TASS on 16 September, 25 major Western banks, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, and Credit Suisse First Boston, set up a group to demand equal treatment and conduct joint negotiations with Russia over rescheduling its debts.

The same day the president of the Association of Russian Banks, Sergei Yegorov, told reporters that Russia's money supply should be increased to at least 20 percent of GDP if the country's monetary system is to function properly. JAC


ITAR-TASS on 16 September reported that the Chinese magazine "Guandong Writer" has published an article alleging that former White House intern Monica Lewinsky is a Russian spy.

When asked about the report, Russian Foreign Intelligence Services spokesman Yurii Kobaladze responded with some amusement, saying "we do not comment on allegations of whether individuals belong to Russia's intelligence services." JAC

"RFE/RL Newsline" on16 September quoted an incorrect Western agency report saying that "in the first eight months of 1998, Russian gold production dropped from 66.4 million tons during the same period last year to 59.4 million tons." The correct figures are 66.4 tons and 59.4 tons.

In the first eight months of 1998, Russian gold production dropped from 66.4 million tons during the same period last year to 59.4 million tons.
The Ministry of Economics told Interfax that total gold production this year will be lower than in 1997 because of sharp declines in two gold-producing regions, Yakutia and Chukotka.

An additional problem is that some producers are holding onto their gold rather than selling it. Several banks have proved unable to pay for volumes of gold already under contract. JAC

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:20 - ID#286230)
"In Bubba we Trust"

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:22 - ID#284255)
Senior Y2K Banking Manager: "DEEP DEEP KIMCHEE"
Y2k site

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:22 - ID#289357)
Rolly @ EWT ultrabearish forecast

I just got out my trusty plastic ruler and scaled the EWT diagram. Here are the approximate turning points as shown on their chart:

Wave 1: Low 6500 Sept 18 ( +/- 1 t.d. ) t.d. = trading day

Wave 2: High 8300 Oct 2 ( +/- 1 t.d. )

Wave 3: Low 4000 Nov 6 ( +/- 4 t.d. )

Wave 4: High 5500 Nov 10 ( +8 t.d. )

Wave 5: Low 2500 Dec 4 ( +/- 3 t.d. )

You can construct your own diagram using those DOW levels and these dates. Please note that until the Elliott Waves develop further, THIS IS PROBABLY AN ACADEMIC EXERCISE.

Nevertheless, if EWT is even close, you could possibly make a fortune in futures or options. And you will need it - I figure the lynchings will start somewhere below 5000.

In reference to Yvan Auger: I do look at his work, and his ultimate target of 35 for the XAU ( especially combined with the ultrabearish picture painted in this EWT forecast ) is not good for stocks; any stocks.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:23 - ID#35571)
If the stock or bond market goes down one can hope to be in cash, but if the banking system starts to collapse, cash itself is called into doubt and real assets ( gold,silver,paintings,real estate,diamonds,etc ) are the thing to hold. Gold is by far the classic.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:31 - ID#286249)
6pak--Assigning life boats?
"...WAS DOMINATED BY FOREIGN FIRMS, INCLUDING MERRILL LYNCH AND GOLDMAN SACHS, but included representatives from fund management, custodian bank and the broking industry. Representatives from HSBC Securities and Jardine Fleming were also present at the meeting, which was held at the offices of ABN Amro Asia Securities.

The head of one foreign broking firm at the gathering said it was HOPED THE ALLIANCE WOULD TAKE ON THE ROLE OF DEFENDING THE INTERNATIONAL BROKING COMMUNITY, which has come under government attack for its role in the speculative attacks."

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:32 - ID#298259)
Miramar Mining Repurchases $22,000,000 Debentures

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:33 - ID#430221)
More on Veneroso
When I first read Veneroso's reported 8000 tons of gold short in
the market my immediate response was: WOW! Gold will go to $3000

because the shorts can never cover!!! You know, something like that.

But then I said that when something does not sound right or is out
of line with reality it probably is. Hence my figuring that the leases
are really lease backs. In other words a 0 game.

But here is my main point: GOLD DOES NOT NEED A SHORT POSITON TO

All gold needs is demand. The baby boomers got onto the high tech
bandwagon. That was their gold and they bought their own hubris with it.

Fear is a great teacher. If Precther is even 1/2 rigth fear is just
around the corner. The boomers will learn what a humble and contrite
heart is.

It will be a spiritual experience if the Dow is 2000 by December.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:40 - ID#147201)
clone your 11:56
this is quite some find. Is it possible you could give the time of Panda's post? Thanx for bringing this up, Charlie

EZ Believer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:43 - ID#173262)
Squirrel......And I thought it was just my PM stocks....

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:45 - ID#28994)
6 Pac
You mention Monica being a Russian spy...Do you recall Gerta Munssinger, the courtesan that rocked the British Parliment and actually was a spy.
Gerta had class but Monica will be relegated to the title of trollop.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:46 - ID#252302)
Are the frames not updating?? ( or is spot just not moving? )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:57 - ID#290287)
Hope this hasn't been posted already, don't have time to check now...



Scene 1. A forest glen.
Enter Witch Tripp and Kenneth of Starr.

Witch Tripp:
Double, double, Webster Hubbell,
I think I got The Creep in trouble.
Eye of Newt, strap of bra,
Could it be he broke some law?
Praise this broth utmost ephemeral,
Heavens! I left out my Essence of Emeril!
Hark! Who trespasses so near?

Kenneth of Starr: 'Tis I, the Inquisitor. What news?

Witch Tripp: Things proceed with quickening speed, m'lord. The
Lewinsky, so deeply embroil'd, is now join'd by the Lady Willey in

like pursuit. Daily tightens the noose around the king.

Starr: Would that it were so, but he hath good counsel, and more
than a chess board. His public, well pleas'd with good news of the

economie, doth o'erlook much.

Witch Tripp: How may I serve you next?

Starr: I have need of acts damnable and facts verifiable. Else he
elude me yet.

Witch Tripp: His dog Buddy, freshly neuter'd, may bear his master
harsh reproach. He may consent to wearing a collar of our
to survey the king at his ease. Dogs are much accustom'd to
What's one more bug?

Starr: Good hag, I rely on you completely. I must away.

( Exeunt Tripp and Starr )

Scene 2. The king's antechamber

Duke of McCurry: My Lord! I needs must speak with you most
The castle is assaulted on all sides!

Leer: What would I not give for an hour's peace!

McCurry: An army of reporters is settled at thy gate. They are
in name and press in deed, for they press me daily, nay, hourly
some explanation from thy lips.

Leer: Who is there among them?

McCurry: Lords Jennings, Brokaw, Rather, Geraldo of Rivera and a

host of others. Methinks I spied the van from Hard Copy.

Leer: You cut me to the quick. Do they not know that I am chaste?

McCurry: They insinuate that thou hast chased too often.

Leer: Never have lies been so artfully stack'd against a pure soul.
Where is Lady Hillary?

McCurry: Her secretary doth report that she is lock'd in her bath,
saying over and over, "Why can I not wash my hands of this guy?"

Leer: Oh cursed fate! I must be the most solitary mortal in all
creation. Never have I betrayed m'lady's trust.

McCurry: Whatever.

( Enter Messenger )

Messenger: Good king, steel thy nerve. I bring a missive from
Kenneth of Starr, the Grand Inquisitor.

Leer: Was ever a man as Starr-cross'd as I? Why does this man
conspire to afflict me thus? My hand is unsteady. Read it to me.

Messenger: Let me see. He offers you his regards, blah, blah, blah,
then doth subpoena you to appear at his chamber at Friday next,
to forswear again that thou tookst no liberties with the Jones
who withdraweth not her claims against you.

Leer: I have already so sworn!

McCurry: It would seem, m'lord, that the woeful tale of Lady Willey
rekindles old flames.

Leer: I kiss'd the woman on the forehead, as a sign of my regard.
Never was a king so expos'd!

McCurry: Truer words were ne'er spoken.

Leer: I cannot think on't further. Leave me to my own counsel.

( Exeunt Messenger and McCurry )

Leer: To be forthright, or not to be forthright, that is the
question. Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings
and arrows of outrageous fortune, or just bag the whole thing
and teach law at a junior college.

( Enter Courtier )

Courtier: My liege, you are late for an appointed meeting.

Leer: What's this?

Courtier: You were to interview a new assistant at the stroke
of two. She seems most capable, and with rare intellect for one
so young and fair, with ankles neatly turned and kneepads equip't.

Leer: Well, tell her I will see her anon, and on, and on.

Courtier: A most clever jest, my king.

Leer: Let us not tarry further.

( Exeunt Leer and courtier. Enter Buddy, from behind a chair )

Buddy: So dearest reader, I bid adieu.
Me seeth I have much to do.
And so it comes to this pretty pass
To see if the king doth get some a**..

(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:57 - ID#269128)
Spiritual Experience....DOW 2000...I love it....
I can even feel their pain and HIS pain...

God and humility are great things....DOW 2000

..yes yes sounds so right.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Sep 17 1998 13:59 - ID#430221)
Trade them if you want but in the end
you will be left on the side lines of the gold bull. Bear markets like
to make sure they take the most investors with them and bull markets
like to make sure they go up with the fewest aboard.

Beware traders. Getting out along the way could be more costly
than you could ever imagine.

This new gold bull has horns.

Currency meltdowns and derivitive meltdowns all around are the
signal to stay put. The price of gold could be up the limit any minute
and stay there for days and days. I have seen this before and we will
see it again. Don't know when so I's a hold'en on.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:05 - ID#329186)
Gold dancer( More on Veneroso) ID#430221
Yes short sales or leasing ( 8000 to 11000 tonnes ) a combination of mines forward sales, leasing, speculators shorts or what ever the catylist that move markets is always |Emotion ( greed fear or whatever ) I have a worry, the Bunker Hunts got screwed by the USG ( changing the rules ) and one must assume that they log on to this site and maybe laugh or cry or wet themselves ( the latter hopefully ) but I wonder what dirty plan they may have to try and deprive goldbugs of say "victory" there are a few of scortch earth merchants about and I Think another problem some of these guys even believe thier own propaganda after a while ~ .

It would look like the derivatives are taken out before Y2K strikes
but devious politicians and contingency plans...
go gold .....what else is there

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:08 - ID#404130)
DOW submarine
calling us for God's sake...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:08 - ID#284255)
Seems I have a blood brother here in OZ

Almost an identical twin.

Now I wonder what he thinks???

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:11 - ID#350179)
200,000 additional Iranian troops mobilised for Afgan border (due Sat)

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:11 - ID#41338)
Silverbaron Thanks Again For Your Comments Re: EWT
Oh Boy!!!!!!!!! I presume that if the EWT is even close to indicating what lies ahead, gold stocks too will get taken down in the interim. This then is consistent with Yvan Auger' s prediction of the XAU at the 35 level. I recall previous posts made by others on this site implying not to think gold stocks will not get taken down in a BEAR market aswell; at least in the short term.

Again, thanks for your comments.

PS I paid attention to your comments last Friday about the unhealthy signs the XAU was displaying and sold my gold stocks, which on Monday,Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week looked like a good decision. Today, those stocks are slightly below my selling price and I'm determined to hold out before buying back in, despite the run up that is taking place today. Especially in light of the additional information I received today about the EWT.
BOY, is discipline ever hard to come by on days like today.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:14 - ID#290287)
about this one..

Hunting Regulations

Bill to Regulate the Hunting and Harvesting of Attorneys PC 370.00

370.01 Any person with a valid in-state rodent or snake hunting
license may also hunt and harvest attorneys for recreational and
sport ( non-commercial ) purposes.

370.02 Taking of attorneys with traps or deadfalls is permitted. The
use of United States currency as bait, however, is prohibited.

370.03 The willful killing of attorneys with a motor vehicle is
prohibited, unless such vehicle is an ambulance being driven in
reverse. If an attorney is accidentally struck by a motor vehicle,
the dead attorney should be removed to the roadside, and the vehicle
should proceed immediately to the nearest car wash.

370.04 It is unlawful to chase, herd or harvest attorneys from a
power boat, helicopter or aircraft.

370.05 It is unlawful to shout, "WHIPLASH", "AMBULANCE", "FREE
SCOTCH" or "GOLD" for the purposes of trapping attorneys.

370.06 It is unlawful to hunt attorneys within 100 yards of BMW,
Mercedes or Porsche dealerships, except on Wednesday afternoon.

370.07 It is unlawful to hunt attorneys within 200 yards of
courtrooms, law libraries, health clubs, country clubs, hospitals or

370.08 If an attorney gains elective office, it is not necessary to
have a license to hunt, trap or possess the same.

370.09 It is unlawful for a hunter to wear a disguise as a reporter,
accident victim, physician, chiropractor or tax accountant for the
purpose of hunting attorneys.

370.10 Bag and Possession Limits per day: Yellow-bellied
sidewinders, 2; Two-faced tortfeasors, 1; Back-stabbing divorce
litigators, 3; Horn-rimmed cut-throats, 2; Minutiae-advocating
dirtbags, 4. Honest attorneys protected ( Endangered Species Act ) .

ARS 8007.21 It is illegal to take attorneys with a moving vehicle
unless there are no measurable skid marks at the kill site.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:16 - ID#269128)
DOW's looking ripe....
for another 200 down before the close methinks.

-400 for the day...any bets?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:16 - ID#253153)
Ninety day treasury bills rate dropped today to 4.5%
Folks, half a point cut in the Fed discount rate is priced into the market. Expect a discount rate cut this month.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:16 - ID#280215)
kapex: Dan Ascanni, or anyone aware of Dan Ascanni's work
For those not interested in Elliott wave, just pass this up. Though I don't use is it to make major decisions, I enjoy trying to pick the waves, and use it in combination with other technical indicators.

In reading through past posts of the last few days, you mentioned that he broke from Prechter because he disagreed with him. Does he have his own newsletter detailing his future calls on the Dow? Is he forecasting the same as Prechter ( ultra bear, depression, armageddon etc.. ) , but farther in the future, or is he similar to the Wolanchuk, Glenn Neely camp, which says that we have completed 5 waves up of wave 1 of an extension that began in 1993, and this current down turn is simply part of a large wave 2 down which could last a while. Wave 2's in general, are allowed to retrace much of the entire wave 1 upward. Wolanchuk indicates this bottom to be in the 5000-5500 range at the worst, and then the climb begins.

This intimates that when this is complete, wave 3 of the extension begins the climb to Dow 100,000 or some wild number, by year 2020 or so. Don Wolanchuk, and Glenn Neely say long term in the Grand Super Cycle time frame since the 1700's, we have not had a Grand scale extension wave whereby we gap up 100 points or more for days/weeks in a row.

Just wondered if you knew what Mr. Ascanni' view was in relation to the ultra bear such as Prechter, or the ultra bulls such as Wolanchuk and Neely.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:22 - ID#410194)
RJ is doing an excellent job to keep us informed about Platinum but some people might be interested to read the following article, released early this morning by an analyst at "Hightower Report":

"The connection between platinum and economic growth is clear after the market saw the hope for rate cuts extinguished. However, we are committed to holding platinum in the ration spread strategy as platinum is still either tight supply or critically tight supply!
Solid support is found at 360 in the January. Reports that shipments of palladium arrived in Japan last week with platinum and other metals scheduled to arrive this week or later. These shipments are the first in 1 1/2 years. Financial difficulties in Russia mean they are working hard to get cash and we still think in the final analysis the world will find an extreme shortage of the metals, but that won't be exposed until Russian conditions mitigate and normal demand growth needs to be fed."

Who Cares?
(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:26 - ID#242214)
Internet & Depression
After watching the internet Clinton apologists for six years, Waco,
the last-minute save of the banking system by Greenspan, Citibank
bankruptcy, etc, I vote for... : )

6 ) sites and discussion groups who KNOW TOO MUCH about what is REALLY IS GOING ON

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:27 - ID#258142)
No news
Wave 1: 6800 - 7000
Wave 2: 7600
Wave 3: 6200 - 6400
Wave 4: 7000
Wave 5: 5000 - 5500
George Cole, 15.08.97 ( 97, not 98 )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:29 - ID#289357)

Yup - the anxiety is very high on my end as well - I've had my finger on the 'buy' trigger numerous times, but so far have held off the great temptation.

Who knows what will happen in the future.....all of us are afraid to miss the 'gold stock' boat. Perhaps a partial position, just in case, is called for...I have not decided on that for myself. I'm only holding about 5% or so now in mining stocks, but I could go up to 40-45% of my portfolio if I choose to ( I never bet everything on any one sector ) .

The thing that holds me back from buying now is not only that I'm looking for a little better price, it is knowing what happened to gold stocks in past crashes - down, down, down.

Gold and silver coins or bullion are quite another matter - I think these metals should be bought anywhere in this area, and held as insurance. I think there is less than a 10% price risk in buying at these levels, which from my point of view is no risk at all.

Monkee Person
(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:29 - ID#350199)
@darkwing re: alta
Maybe. Depends on the deal w/ Gerald Metals. Also have other hedging instruments. Crank-in cash cost = $200/oz. Not bad.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:32 - ID#404410)
EWT chasing
Everyone in the world is following Elliott Wave Theory. There are even different versions as to what the wave counts imply. I've learned to make my own decisions, not those of the latest guru, and, believe me, there are not shortage of them. The markets are just not that easy as following EWT.

PS- Ask yourself this question: Does Warren Buffet follow EWT? I doubt it very much!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:32 - ID#35571)
DOW -195
DOW seems to be stuck down around two hundred or so. Guess It's about time for something to happen. Maybe one of these ancient Babylonian spells would work. Let's see, where did I put my reading glasses...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:33 - ID#35571)
DOW -195
DOW seems to be stuck down around two hundred or so. Guess It's about time for something to happen. Maybe one of these ancient Babylonian spells would work. Let's see, where did I put my reading glasses...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:38 - ID#350179)
You are about to be "ping"ed. Man your stations.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:38 - ID#252302)
Some "Heavies" are buying into DROOY
today ... I have seen several 100,000 + trades ..DROOY UP about 6-7% today...go gold

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:39 - ID#284255)
Millennium Tragedy In Urbanville:
A Report Highlighting the Impact of the
Year 2000 Crisis and Its Effect on
Public Safety within Greater Urbanville

This paper is myth and misses many important impacts.
It won't be this bad.
It'll be a lot worse.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:40 - ID#404130)
I hate betting on a rigged market. But even a rigged market collapses eventually. So I think I'll bet with you.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:44 - ID#289357)

Yep - as with anything else, EWT is useful ( used in moderation ) as ONE piece of information which should be used in combination with others for the decision process in market analysis.

At best, it represents a way of indicating one ( or sometimes more ) probable outcomes. It is not a flawless system, of course, and it is subject to interpretation. However, I have found that the system of Elliott Wave Theory does help in divorcing the emotions from reality in trying to decide which way a market will turn.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:44 - ID#35571)
DOW -211
Ok, I found my reading glasses. Hmmmnnn, this stuff is written in cuneiform. I guess I'll have to go get my Babylonian cuneiform pronunciation guide. Hang on, I'll be right back....

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:46 - ID#317193)
You folk mind the store...I'm goin' golfing....
bet the last hour is a hoot. Everything but the first hour has been boring. What 100-150 point swing either way would do to the markets!

I'll check back later to see if Gollums sub was full of heavy metal or hot air. Actually, I don't think it matters. Gold will rise no matter what within a few months.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:46 - ID#290172)
Sam--re: King Leer, BRABO, Nicely Done!

From WEF, Davos...Unravelings at board level?
WEF had scheduled three summits:
Singapore.12-14 October 1998
Istanbul 8-9 November 1998
New Delhi29 November-1 December 1998

Asian Summit has been 'postponed'--
"Furthermore, the situation has created considerable concern within the international business community. We had hoped that the SAARC Summit in Colombo would have provided positive signals and also the necessary impulse to guarantee a comprehensive business participation. Unfortunately, this was not the case."

COMMENT:This is something that has not happened before!
Well worth a read--WEF's 1998 report--
Managing Volatility
Paste together please...

All of the articles are well worth a read, if only to understand how at sea EVERYONE seems to be...angst level rising

Thus, in light of the above and in agreement with our partner, we have decided to postpone the Summit to next year. As soon as the necessary conditions for a successful Summit are present, we will fully resume our efforts and commitment towards this exceptional regional event.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:49 - ID#284255)
TOKYO, Sept 11 (Reuters)
The following are key quotes from the government and experts on the
Japanese economy:


``Japan's economic conditions continue to deteriorate.''


``We will try our best to see economic recovery as soon as possible.''


``It ( Japanese economy ) is standing next to a deflationary spiral and
needs caution.''

``We may need to take drastic measures in case of an emergency ( in the
Japanese economy ) .''

``Other countries are telling Japan to get its economic act together and
work to boost domestic demand.''


``I don't have a sense of crisis that the ( global economic ) situation
will become more severe.''

``There are various options that the BOJ can take.''

``If a major Japanese bank was to fail it might disrupt domestic and
international financial markets.''


``The stock market is also reflecting parliament deliberations ( over
financial bills ) . We will continue to keep a close eye on markets and
take appropriate measures.''


``I don't think that the Asian or world crisis is over. We are on the
verge of a deflationary spiral and we need to avoid that.''


``The Japanese economy is imploding and Japanese policy-makers are not
responding to the crisis.''


``It's broad and it's vicious...and it will probably get worse.''


``Clinton could either resign or get impeached...and the Dow will fall
with him.''

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:51 - ID#284255)
TOKYO, Sept 11 (Reuters)
The following are key quotes from the government and experts on the
Japanese economy:


``Japan's economic conditions continue to deteriorate.''


``We will try our best to see economic recovery as soon as possible.''


``It ( Japanese economy ) is standing next to a deflationary spiral and
needs caution.''

``We may need to take drastic measures in case of an emergency ( in the
Japanese economy ) .''

``Other countries are telling Japan to get its economic act together and
work to boost domestic demand.''


``I don't have a sense of crisis that the ( global economic ) situation
will become more severe.''

``There are various options that the BOJ can take.''

``If a major Japanese bank was to fail it might disrupt domestic and
international financial markets.''


``The stock market is also reflecting parliament deliberations ( over
financial bills ) . We will continue to keep a close eye on markets and
take appropriate measures.''


``I don't think that the Asian or world crisis is over. We are on the
verge of a deflationary spiral and we need to avoid that.''


``The Japanese economy is imploding and Japanese policy-makers are not
responding to the crisis.''


``It's broad and it's vicious...and it will probably get worse.''


``Clinton could either resign or get impeached...and the Dow will fall
with him.''

(Thu Sep 17 1998 14:59 - ID#280215)
Hiighhopes: Elliott waves
My guess is that Buffet himself does not follow the waves. But I'd bet that he probably has one or two technicians on his staff, similar to Veneroso, Soros, etc.., who follow it or try to follow it, and at least have some idea of what is the latest popular wave count.. Even Jimmy Rodgers doesn't follow Elliott wave, but is aware of its existence and use., as he indicated in his forward in Prechter's "At The Crest" book. I'm sure all of the big traders look at everything to make an investment decision ( fundamentals, technicals, theory etc.. ) . If all or most point in a particular direction, then you pull the trigger.

The thing to note is that Elliott wave theory is just that, THEORY. If you use it at as simply another indicator that is used with the same weight as all of your other indicators used in making your decisions, it can be valuable as a confirmation/non-confirmation of your other work. If you base everything on the Elliott waves, you will probably be in trouble. Just like if you base everything on one fundamental or technical indicator, you will probably be in equal trouble.

I personally find it fun to try and track, just to see how it develops. But nothing more than that.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:00 - ID#289357)
BillD (Some "Heavies" are buying into DROOY)

For every buyer there is a seller. Think about it.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:01 - ID#350179)
"We do understand that from an idealistic position of a free market, what we did is probably rather exceptional," Tsang said.

Hong Kong says market intervention was unavoidable

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:02 - ID#347235)
IMF Funding
According to Commie News Network ( CNN ) the House is ready to deny funding for the IMF, it is now time for ALL Kitco people to e-mail,call,write whatever to your Congressman to insure they dont cave on this!!!!! GO GOLD!!!!!!! Tolly go get Camdesess ( SP ) .

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:08 - ID#35571)
DOW -165
I did my little incantatation and we're heading back for the surface. Who was it this morning that guessed we'd be down about eigthty at the close?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:10 - ID#35571)
DOW -178
We seem to hit some resistence around 7950. I need to add a little more power.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:11 - ID#373284)
Camdesuss is a dirtbag...a purveyor of pain and suffering to people that are already
down and out...How can any American support an organization that spreads mayhem and bankruptcy out like candy at Halloween...if you truly care about people here at home and abroad you have to put an end to IMF funding...

Get Camdessus!!!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:12 - ID#35571)
The resistence was at 7925. I misread it. I think I may have read that last cuneiform wrong too.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:15 - ID#35571)
DOW -202
I wonder if we're stuck on something out there. It's awfully hard to get very far away from 7900.

I'll just add another phrase or two of this Babylonian thing.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:23 - ID#290287)
King Leer- I didn't write it, just passing it along. Forgot to change the copyright notice.

Using Puetz' reco I just got a double on a 675 S&P500 Oct put.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:39 - ID#293184)
Intuitively, I would be a seller of DROOY now after having gapped up to
a spike high. I sure wouldn't buy it here.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:39 - ID#261155)
jezzzzzzzzzzzz Sam, I think the one that would really appreciate your
lawyer joke about now, is WJC, and you ought to send it to him

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:42 - ID#261155)
jezzzzzzzzzzzz Sam, I think the one that would really appreciate your
lawyer joke about now, is WJC, and you ought to send it to him

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:49 - ID#261155)
jezzzzzzzzzzzz Sam, I think the one that would really appreciate your
lawyer joke about now, is WJC, and you ought to send it to him

(Thu Sep 17 1998 15:51 - ID#293184)
Intuitively, I would be a seller of DROOY now after having gapped up to
a spike high. I sure wouldn't buy it here.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:19 - ID#43349)
DOW -216
Interesting. Having all the day traders in on the big drop this morning unable to get the price up this afternoon does not bode well for the market tomorrow. It would indicate big money getting out before the end of the week selling out to the day traders everything they wanted with no haggleing.

GCZ8 looking strong.

Now where did I put my list of XAU members...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:23 - ID#350179)
approximate close
DOW 8089.78 7873.77 -2.67% -216.01
XAU 65.22 67.46 3.43% 2.24

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:29 - ID#43349)
We knew you were out golfing, so we just left the market on hold until tomorrow. It would be a shame for you to have to miss anything.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:34 - ID#258142)
In addition to all causes, widely discussed before
it is expiration of index and equity options tomorrow. It should go down with some rebound next week. And POG - well, watch $ vs DM

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:35 - ID#269128)
"Rate cut would not cure global systemic problem anyway..."
Thursday September 17, 4:23 pm Eastern Time

Wall Street should not view rate cut as a cure-all

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Sept 17 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street could be clutching at straws by
calling for speedy rate cuts when stocks face a plethora of problems, many of
which are beyond the reach of even the Fed, the world's most powerful central
bank, analysts said.

``Even if we do get a cut, it won't solve all our problems,'' said Joseph Barthel, chief investment strategist at
Fahnestock & Co.

``There will also be bad mouthing, with people saying it's too little, too late, that the Fed eased because we
are going into a recession,'' Barthel added.

``The problems that we have right now are systemic and will take a couple of years to solve. This is not a
classic, domestically inspired stocks correction - this is an international problem."

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:35 - ID#407135)
Monica L
Has Monica come to to promote Queensland tobacco or is she just going down on the reef?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:38 - ID#269128)
Sound the Alarms....IMF funding refused!..What now for Brazil?
Thursday September 17, 4:20 pm Eastern Time

U.S. House refuses $18 billion for IMF

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 ( Reuters ) - In a blow to President Bill Clinton, the
Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives refused on Thursday to
give the IMF the full $18 billion requested by the White House to fend off a
global financial meltdown.

Despite panic in world markets and warnings that IMF cash reserves were
depleted by bailouts in Asia and Russia, House Republican leaders rejected an
amendment by Democrats that would have given $18 billion to the IMF to help it guard crisis-hit
economies in Latin America and in other regions.

The House was to vote later on Thursday on whether to approve $3.4 billion for the International Monetary
Fund, a fraction of the money the White House says the Washington-based lending agency needs.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:44 - ID#403234)
Gollum ( DOW Lottery)
Did my -190 ticket win the free trip to Disneyland??? If so give it to 2nd place. Can't afford to cross border with Cdn dollars.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:44 - ID#269128)
Retirement funds only losing "on paper"..hahahhahaha it's all just paper!

Thursday September 17 4:25 PM EDT

Retirees Confident in Pension Fund

DOUG WILLIS Associated Press Writer

SACRAMENTO, Calif. ( AP ) - Sheryl Pressler has lost $11.5 billion in the stock market since July 17. But
everyone is calm in her office in the headquarters of the nation's biggest pension fund.

``In the last two years we've made $40 billion,'' she said. ``You can't expect things to go up forever.''

Ms. Pressler is chief investment officer for the California Public Employees Retirement System, known as
CalPERS. It's responsible for investing pension funds of 720,000 active and 330,000 retired employees of the
state of California and 2,400 local government agencies.

The highly regarded fund has had strong investment returns in recent years. After a meager 2 percent
return in the 1993-94 fiscal year, when California's economy was still on the ropes, its annual rate of return
for the past four years has averaged 17.8 percent.

Retirees who rely on the fund are confident despite sharp ups and downs in the market - including a
512-point plunge in the Dow industrials on Aug. 31 - that have Wall Street divided on whether the great
bull market of the 1990s is over.

``They've lost money. So has everybody else. But it's on paper,'' said Morris Lowenstein, a retired San
Francisco State University professor of social sciences who lives in Burlingame, south of San Francisco.
The pension represents his principal source of income.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 16:55 - ID#267344)
chas @ 13:40 - panda's post was @ 11:12
However, it does not appear that anyone wants to address my question... I am searching the library of congress to try to locate the actual act/ammendment.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:04 - ID#237299)
Tolerant1 @ your imf post
As a signatory to the charter agreement forming the IMF, the U.S.
Government is contractually bound to give support the decisions
made by the executive committee- and- to further aid and give support
to those decisions through domestic policy.

Why do you think Greenspan, Rubin and Clinton
are out stumping so hard to push this funding appeal? Maybe a tiny
bit because it serves our own self interests- but I think mostly
because they are obligated to do so- *and* because they are
scared not to.

The IMF ( again through charter and agreed to by all signatory nations )
is a sovereign unassailable entity, the executives cannot be brought
before any court, the property and records of the fund are immune
from impound or search or taxation, even the wages paid the executives
cannot be taxed. At any time, for whatever reason they deem necessary,
they can move or hide the gold ( 4200 tones ) . They control transfer
of wealth between nations, and in fact can destroy a currency
any time they want. ( Although, ostensibly, their purpose is supposed to
be the opposite )

These guys are self-made kings- and have their own agendas.

So, to pout and call Camdessus a dirt-bag is missing the bigger issues;
I suggest you spend a day or two and read the charter agreement ( especially
the amendments and schedules ) of that world power-
it will scare you to death.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:06 - ID#28861)
CRB Index news
News today Russia has allowed domestic producers to sell anywhere in the local market, which may see a further 20 tonnes of exports sold abroad
this year, failed to have much of an impact on prices ( stories .11196,
.9564 ) .
"It is interesting that the Russia news has not weakened gold or
silver, suggesting that the market probably believes that not much will
come out of either metals," said James Steel, analyst at Refco.

Old Soldier
(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:06 - ID#238299)
Sam, Suggested improvements to your Lawyer initiative
This sounds fine to me but there ought to be some incentive such as a bounty
program. Give those bubbas a good reason to unlimber their iron.

There are also several offshoot industries here;

Lawyer butchering, smoking and packaging

Laser lawyer designator "sure shot" inserts into any variable scope

Lawyer-specific ammunition-mushroom exploding tips to expand in the vast
internal airspaces

Lawyer roundups. Big prizes for the team that brings the most weight in
corpses to the contest. Daily weigh ins. Full coverage ably assisted by the
Swedish Barrister Bikini Team. Full coverage on Fox and ESPN.

Endorsements from celebrities e.g. Richard Jewell on using a variety of
Lawyer scent lures ( warm blood etc ) , camouflage ( Armani suits ) and sound
attractives ( Vern Jordan press conferences )

Ecology trips to areas recently cleared of lawyers

Endorsements by retired bimbos extolling the positive changes since they
stopped chasing lawyers and took up with accountants and doctors

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:07 - ID#208393)
"The Velocity of Money"
How quickly can roubles be printed and then turned into $US and DM? We will soon find out!
"MOSCOW, Sept. 17  With a political deadlock over the shape of Russias next cabinet again distracting politicians, Russias Central Bank chief said on Thursday he will order themprinting of rubles to pay off state debts and bail out banks. Russian reformers and international financial backers of Moscow quickly warned the move would further undercut the weak rubles value and lead to hyperinflation."

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:09 - ID#43349)
The Wrath of Grapes
Remember all those old back and white photos of old cars with cardboard signs that said "California or bust!"? Well, those cars may be soon be headed back east again.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:11 - ID#280339)
Triple Witching
Triple witching supported the market near the close today a lot of S&P puts being unwound. It will support the market on the close tommorrow as the OEX unwinds. The last two Mondays were big up days. The shorts will cover causing the market to close strong. Of course with the shorts covering next Monday will be down big.

Buy Gold!!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:17 - ID#373284)
Obsidian, Namaste' and a gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...The IMF is a sham...
no less...I have read so much on the IMF it would choke a Polar Bear...these people are less...the contractual obligation is a joke...they take and take and then take some more...

I say not one more penny to the IMF...they are the cancer...not the cure...

The IMF is broke...I say let it lay and don't fix it...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:19 - ID#237299)
BART at KITKO @ load times :-(
Bart, do you have any track records showing hits per hour? Has this
gone out of sight recently? I can't even load the page most of the
time lately, and often give up completely or wait till late at night
to try to catch up on the day's discussion.

This is truly a wonderful asset in my own life, and I know I am not
alone in appreciating the service you have provided in creating
this site. Thanks for making this possible. If you have already answered this previously, perhaps
someone can point me to the day and time of the post.

Thank You!!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:37 - ID#404130)
Your terrifying description of the IMF sounds like the charter of a Canadian bank! Little wonder tol1 is mightily upset.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:47 - ID#43349)
Beirut berger's
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Sept. 17 ( UPI S ) _ McDonald's, the largest and best-
known global food service retailer, has opened ( Thursday ) its first
restaurant in Lebanon and is planning more branches in the coming few
years throughout the country. The chairman of McDonald's-Lebanon says
the project, which has been under study since 1992, was run by ''a
Lebanese company, with a Lebanese capital and Lebanese employees.''

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:56 - ID#237299)
Boy am I glad you pointed my folly out to me! Whew! I can breath
easier now! Wadda' ya' know, it's just standard business language.
geeze.. and to think after all the fine print I've read in my life
how silly of me to become alarmed. The world really IS a safe, kind,
gentle place, and there really are no monsters. Thanks hapless. I'll
stop bothering to read that stuff from now on, because if banks say
it's ok, well, than it's gotta' be harmless- right?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:58 - ID#404410)
CNBC's Bull/Bear debate today
Fleckenstein liked gold
Battabaglia disliked gold entirely

Would you agree with the former or the latter?


(Thu Sep 17 1998 17:58 - ID#31876)
Does Anyone Still Believe the Federal Reserve Will Lower Rates On Sep. 29?

"Firms in Japan are looking to beef up their balance sheets
before their fiscal half-year ends Sep. 30. To do so, they
are repatriating funds, or buying yen by selling off assets
such as dollars and dollar-denominated securities".

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:01 - ID#288295)
Goldman Sachs buying USD calls, DM puts?

Has anyone heard anything about GS buying $500 Million in 9 month USD calls and DM puts @ 1.87 ? I got this from a posting on vronsky's site.

What does GS know that we don't know? Insiders betting on the dollar doesn't bode well for gold - or am I missing soething?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:06 - ID#30126)
The federal Reserve Note thing, again...
Seeing as there seems to be some interest in this piece from the Treasury, let's parse it a bit.

Federal Reserve notes are legal tender currency notes.


From Webster's New World dictionary:

Definition 7 )

a: ) a written promise to pay a some of money or a written acknowledgment of a debt from which a promise of payment can be inferred.

b ) a piece of paper currency. { a Federal Reserve note}


The twelve Federal Reserve Banks issue them into circulation pursuant to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. A commercial bank belonging to the Federal Reserve System can obtain Federal Reserve notes from the Federal Reserve Bank in its district whenever it wishes .

It must pay for them in full, dollar for dollar, by drawing down its account with its district Federal Reserve Bank.


( One might be inclined to ask of the above sentence, "An account of what? IOU's?" )


Federal Reserve Banks obtain the notes from our Bureau of Engraving and Printing ( BEP ) . It pays the BEP for the cost of producing the notes, which then become liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, and obligations of the United States Government.


( I knew we were getting it tucked to us somehow! In case you don't understand, whenever they say, "obligations of the United States Government.", that means that invisible hand is in your wallet. )


Congress has specified that a Federal Reserve Bank must hold collateral equal in value to the Federal Reserve notes that the Bank receives.


( Hmmmmm. Getting interesting here. Where does this collateral come from? )


This collateral is chiefly gold certificates and United States securities. This provides backing for the note issue.


( O.K. IOU's from Uncle Sam and the GOLD CERTIFICATES? Wait a minute, isn't the Federal Reserve supposed to put up the 'collateral? I'm confused here! )


The idea was that if the Congress dissolved the Federal Reserve System, the United States would take over the notes ( liabilities ) . This would meet the requirements of Section 411, but the government would also take over the assets, which would be of equal value.


( This sort of sounds OK, but I'm not a lawyer! Hey, Tortfeasor! Where are you? Why do I feel like the Indians who sold Manhattan Island. )


Federal Reserve notes represent a first lien on all the assets of the Federal Reserve Banks, and on the collateral specifically held against them.


( Uh oh! A lien on an IOU? HMMM, maybe it's them gold certificates.. NAH! )


Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything. This has been the case since 1933.


****************BOOM! THE BOMB SHELL ADMISSION!*****************


The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy.




In another sense, because they are legal tender, Federal Reserve notes are "backed" by all the goods and services in the economy.


$$$$$$$$$$$$ Read that last one again folks! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

%%%%%%%% Indentured servitude? %%%%%%%%%%%%

We now return to our regularly scheduled programming..

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:06 - ID#28861)
Maybe they are just hedging a large "short dollar/long DM" position? Gold is up and going up.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:08 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron your 18:01
If the info is true, you can bet that GS knows something we don't know. It seems strange, but the implication may be in what Greenspan may yet say. I'm not privy, but I know how these bastards work and if it's not due to derivatives, it's due to the US withdrawing from global finance????

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:09 - ID#30126)
My last post isn't as long as it looks! Tortfeasor, this requires some legal beagal stuff.
Honest! It's just that there's no good way to delineate my text from the original. It's lots of dashes....

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:10 - ID#288295)

Good thinking. And I hope you are right. ( ;^ ) )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:19 - ID#350179)
U.N. agency criticizes IMF, urges adoption of U.S. bankruptcy laws

Congress snubs IMF appeal

Brazil stocks continue downward slide

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:23 - ID#227290)
XAU Action
It looks to me like the XAU broke the downtrend line from the April high last week. This week it has pulled back to test the top of that broken downtrend line. Now it has bounced off it and is ready to resume its new uptrend.

Stay tuned for further developments. I'm off to my monthly Sons of Confederate Veterans meeting.

The Preacher

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:26 - ID#350179)
Loose threads

For educational purposes only.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:32 - ID#275194)
Stradler@14:16; Yes Ascani has a website, and decide for yourself what he thinks
about what lies in front of us!

Global Market Strategists

Global Markets Collapse Again
As 1930s-Style Debt Crisis Emerges

Most people do not wish to be alarmist, nor do they wish us to be alarmist. Yet,
sometimes the reality of a situation sounds alarmist. Such may be the case now with
the global economy, especially given this weekend's tense waiting game over the
situation with the international banking system and Russia's probable default on a
debt payment Monday.

To be more specific, many market analysts sometimes do, in fact, sound alarmist at
times. To scream "1930s-stlye depression" every time the global economy moves
from an expansion phase of the business cycle into a declining phase ( typically, in
turn, leading to recession ) would not be desirable. However, once every 60 years,
1930s style depressions typically do occur, and this time the global economy is,
unfortunately, experiencing the kind of economic collapse that occurs only every
five or six decades or so. It is, in fact, a full-blown depression in some parts of the
globe and spreading at an alarming rate to other parts.

What, then, distinguishes a 1930s-style downturn from a more normal, or even
severe, downturn leading to a period of recession? Almost always, the difference
lies in the status of debt service of a particular country and the state of the global
monetary system as it relates to the foreign exchange market. In a nutshell, human
complacency typically builds to an extreme state every five to six decades, leading
to poor decision-making with respect to credit expansion and speculation on both
the part of governments and the private sector. The resulting financial debacle
due to the collapsing debt pyramid that goes along with that complacency typically
leads to a global depression, not a recession.

This, I have repeatedly written about for the past 11 years, is what the
Kondratieff Long Wave Cycle is all about. Many mistake this cycle, based on the
findings of Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff, to be one that is used to predict
where a market or an economy is going. To the contrary, though, it is a cycle that he
discovered occurs regularly due to the excesses of debt that develop during the
easy money days of the decades-long economic expansion. The Kondratieff cycle,
then, is actually a cycle of debt repudiation, and that is exactly what is beginning to
occur in parts of the globe.

Indeed, the world awaits Russia's decision Monday, only a week after it
effectively devalued its currency, the ruble, and declared a debt moratorium.
Russia, in fact, is in such bad shape ( some report them on the verge of anarchy )
that even if they were to make Monday's debt payment, it would wipe out
remaining reserves and render them technically bankrupt.

Human nature, therefore, is to become too overconfident during the decades of
expansion that characterizes the "upwave" of the Kondratieff cycle. Many even
feel "it is different this time" at the top of each revolution of this cycle,
unfortunately just at the wrong time when the whole debt pyramid is about to
implode. Reflected in this type of thinking is perhaps the urge to be chic, to buy, as
we heard had occurred in Hong Kong in the days leading up to their 1997 debacle, a
second Mercedes Benz. Word last October was that some in Hong Kong were
having to sell their second Mercedes to meet margin calls emanating from the
stock market crash.

This is certainly not to single out Hong Kong as a bastion of hedonism since this kind
of behavior still occurs everywhere and will continue to occur until humanity learns
to be more prudent and less impetuous with their finances. Moreover, Hong Kong
and Asia's financial debacle last year and this year provided the alert investor an
opportunity to realize that, no, this time it is not different, that financial collapses
and depressions do, in fact, happen in the modern day global economy. Presently,
Americans, in fact, are being put to the same test, albeit not to the same private
or banking sector excess as had occurred in parts of the Pacific Rim. American
investors, however, still appear very stubborn about holding onto stock holdings no
matter what, even sending more money to their mutual funds or brokerage firms
during this year's steep market correction.

In conclusion, this generation of investors is on assignment: to learn what no prior
generation has yet learned; to go where no generation has gone before. The
assignment is to learn to be prudent; to not be "irrationally exuberant," as we and
the U.S. Fed Chairman have discussed so many times in the past. It is to learn to
balance portfolios as the marketplace changes, and it is to learn that being a
conservative investor is not defined by holding onto stock and taking no action but,
instead, to reallocate portfolios and keep them balanced ( i.e., between stocks,
bonds, cash, gold, etc. ) at all times. Perhaps an optimistic view is in order to sum up
this outlook: every time the 4-year cycle drags stocks lower, it creates a
significant buying opportunity.

The reality of the situation, not to sound alarmist, is that bear markets involve very
deep declines and the typical investor will usually sell out just at the wrong time,
ala 1987.

"There is nothing permanent except change." -- Heraclitus

Dan Ascani

26 August 1998

Dan Ascani is President and Director of Research at Global Market Strategists,
Inc. GMS website at:

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:36 - ID#253153)
Don't listen to all the negatives being said these days about gold and silver
The gold bull market will be confirmed when the Xau closes above 72 and gold above $ 303. I have learned to close my eyes and shut my ears and won't listen to any negative mentioned on a daily basis about gold and silver. We are in a Primary Dow Theory confirmed bear market and that is all that we need to know. The gold stocks are still very inexpensive and will be rising for the next few years as a safe haven against the coming bankruptcies in this deflationary phase. I remember back in Aug 1982 when the Dow was at 800 and the commentators were talking about 400. In those days the dividends yield on the Dow was 7% and I knew that good quality stocks were cheap and at bargain base levels. The gold bull market wan'ts to rise with a few participants as possible .

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:37 - ID#147201)
clone and panda + mozel
I can't find any amendment to the constitution which changes the provision for gold and silver money. However, the Fed has some authority under the 1913 Act ( however legal or illegal it was ) to issue notes against the collateral of treasury bonds. The best place to look about this is the U.S. Code annotated. If we could draw mozel into this, there could be a good deal more definition. I'm still looking, BBL, Charlie

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:45 - ID#290287)
Old Soldier
I was just passing along another dumb joke email joke. But what a mind YOU have. With your leadership skills, cool resolve under stress, , unassailable integrity, and creative genius tempered with common sense, you could have a great carreer in politics. C'mon, go for it! :- )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:47 - ID#254321)
Please see World Net Daily today! Clinton will be thoroughly disgraced.
All: This site is getting better than Matt Drudge! Today we have the news that the Clinton testimony video is coming out today ( very bad according to article, due to WJC's temper ) . Hillary is also in K Starr's crosshairs for:

1 ) Castle Grande ( perjury, obstruction of justice ) , she denied this, but papers uncovered later showed she presided at over 14 meetings.

2 ) FBI file gate -- she was intimately involved with 900 files or so, and the fellow that managed the files. Colson of Whitewater fame went to jail for illegal access to only one FBI file.

3 ) Manipulation of Madison Guarantee, where she may have been involved in its systematic looting. Strangely enough, she was retained ( as I recall ) to represent Madison Guarantee -- through the Rose law firm, and she also represented the Government on the other side of the fence -- a clear conlfict of interest. When the dust settled, Madison Guarantee was bankrupt with the US Government having to pay something like 60 million dollars. Oddly enough, the only cash remaining was over $500,000 US which went neither to creditors or to the US government, but rather to pay the Rose Law firm for expenses. I monder -- how much went to Hillary?

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, for some reason K Starr held off on prosecuting Hillary till now. Perhaps he had to get advice on whether to proceed, or perhaps WJC was offered a deal he refused.

Or -- perhaps this is a brilliant maneuver by K Starr to get maximum testimony -- break the case open with Monicagate so that the fear/respect of the president is gone, and then move in for the kill with testimony gathered since the Monicagate stuff blew up in WJC's face.

Masterful -- if this was planned. Regardless, this must be why KStarr looks like the Chesire Cat these days. His future in US history books, and probably on the Supreme Court, is assured.

Bill Buckler
(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:48 - ID#256381)
Upturn on Gold P&F Chart
The rise in the spot month Gold price ( to $US 291.20 ) on September 17 has produced a very important change on our $US 1 x 3 Point & Figure chart.

The upturn on the strategic ( $US 5 x 3 chart ) , which occurred when spot month price exceeded $US 290 on September 10 greatly inproves the chances that Gold has bottomed. Now, we have the phenomenon of buyers coming into the market with Gold in the high $US 280s.

We have updated our $US - $A Gold comparison page at The Privateer website to include this technical improvement on the $US Gold chart

No "co-ordinated rate cuts" according to both the Bundesbank's Titmeier and Greenspan. Big swoons on Asian, European and US markets. And the White House now reported as indulging in "dirty tricks" ( remember those, circa Watergate? ) . Things are indeed getting interesting

Mike Sheller
(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:48 - ID#347447)
your 18:06 - Certainly not "federally" reserved. Thank you for the breath of fresh hair. Now may I go back to Seinfeld re-runs, & such. I think I have earned a daily escape from reality. No?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:53 - ID#41338)
Preacher Good to hear from you again.
I know you really never went away as you replied to Labybugs questions
on several occasions. Good to see that you are always lurking in the background. It appears you only post comments on the market when you feel you have something relevant to say. This to me implies wisdom and experience. Have a good trip and I will certainly be staying tuned for futher developments.



(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:54 - ID#401460)
OIL $15

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )


lefty kiwi
(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:55 - ID#32176)
Carolan Spiral Calendar and gold low $103.50 of 25 Aug 1976
I posted this some weeks ago but porbably when many Northern Hemisphere types were asleep .
Prechter has often said that this low should be revisited in some shape or form . Accordingly I thought I would trace a Carolan Spiral from this date
I came up with the following not insignificant hits .
F25 from 8/25/76 is 10/18/98
F4 from 10/18/98 is $271.50 on 8/28/98 last low
F11 from 10/18/98 is $277 on 1/12/98 low ( +1 day )
F 17 from 10/18/98 is $414.30 on 7/27/93 high ( +6 days )
Most other odd numbered dates are close hits to turning points but the above are the most significant .
To me it looks like 10/18/98 is a gold foci point from a left hand ( odd numbered spiral ) from the low of $103.50 , Once we pass that date the Brakes should be off .
also 2.618 x $103.50 = $270.96 sliightly less than the gold low already in .... 8/28 )

also Jeills chart for homestake gold has identified 10/18/98 as spike low for gold

I think a new low on this date is feasable and could possibly be the bottom IMHO

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:55 - ID#286230)
FBI Asked to Probe Clinton Advisers

(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:59 - ID#290213)
I tried to contain myself and refrain from this type of thing, but somethings are just too good!!
Arkansas is very proud of Clinton. All these women coming forward, and
not one of them is his sister!

Q. What is the difference between George Washington, Richard Nixon,and
Bill Clinton?
A. Washington couldn't tell a lie, Nixon couldn't tell the truth, and
Clinton doesn't know the difference!
* * * * * *
Bill and Hillary were in bed last night asleep. At 2 am Hillary woke up and needed to go to the bathroom, so Hillary was shaking Bill to wake him up to tell him she needed to go the bathroom. Bill said to her "Hillary, why are you waking me up to tell me you needed to go the bathroom?"

Hillary said back to him, "Because I wanted you to save my spot."
* * * * * *
Hillary Clinton goes to a fortune teller who says to her, "Prepare
yourself to be a widow, your husband will soon suffer a violent death."
Mrs. Clinton takes a deep breath and replies, "Will I be acquitted?"

Who Cares?
(Thu Sep 17 1998 18:59 - ID#242214)
JTF - Clinton, WhiteWater and Wishful thinking
Don't be too quick, Mr. JTF.

Castle Grande and Flowerwood Farms were on the Internet over two years
ago. There have been rumors about Hillary's indictment for almost
that long. Don't get me wrong, I think Hillary is guilty, but it's
been too long to be optimistic about Starr. I still can't figure
what he is about.

The cattle trading records for Hillary's $100K windfall are on record
at the CME. But, to my knowledge, are still untouched by Starr. The
daily trading records would be enough to establish a pattern of
"straddles" if they were released, along with her known association
with Redbone ( convicted on straddles prior to Hillary's trades ) .

The evidence of straddles, at their peak usage in 1980-82, would
also point to mob involvement, since they were heavily used for
laundering money.

Why have we seen nothing about this?

Supposedly, Madelaine Albright and James Cohen are meeting with Hyde
today. If you watched the live broadcasts immediately following the
Sudan bombing, you might be aware that Albright and Cohen looked more
than a little stunned and shook-up.

Add to that the comments by a congressional member that "Starr left
out" a lot of damning details and my guess is that Starr went for
a minimum force strike - he tried to do just enough to let Clinton
resign gracefully, but Clinton is too stupid ( or smart ) to do it.

I would bet that the detailed, and unreleased, evidence points to
cocaine use.

I would also bet that Cohen and Albright were briefed by Hyde on
possible presidential drug use, and that essentially, Clinton has
now been pre-empted from unilateral use of our military.

Mo in To
(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:04 - ID#347205)
Hey Gang,
I have the "dream show" for Jerry Springer. Let's put on Slick Willie, Hilary and Monica and let them fight it out for the ratings!!!

On another tangent, does anyone know which U.S. law firms have launched class action suits against Philip Services? I have a friend who is foaming at the mouth about his losses and eager for revenge. If anyone does know, please e-mail me at


(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:13 - ID#401460)
Clinton Blackmail/Revenge

Texas Rep. Tom DeLay, the third ranking House Republican, said he had heard reports that Clinton allies were investigating Democrats as well as Republicans.

``Despicable act,'' ``new low'' and ``direct assault'' on Congress were some of the phrases used on the House floor by members of both parties about the report, which Hyde confirmed in a statement.

Texas Rep. Martin Frost, chairman of the Democratic congressional campaign committee, said he was appalled by the attack on Hyde and added, ``Any Democratic candidate for Congress who initiates personal attacks on the private life of his opponent will no longer receive funding from the Democratic congressional committee.''


(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:21 - ID#275194)
Elliot Wave: The 4th wave has ended!!! Look at this 30 minute chart of the Dow
Look how the highs of 9/14, and 9/16 ( connect by trendline ) , and the lows of 9/14, and 9/16 make a rising wedge. An a-b-c-d-e, just in that span of 3 days alone.The pattern that formed is a very negative one.

Look at this example of a wedge!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:23 - ID#412286)
Three Cheers for Clinton
Uncover all the bastards. Look at the bi partisanship when THEY are threatened..Go Clinton LET the scandals spread far and wide over all politicos of both parties. This can only be described as freedom at work. WE now KNOW HYDE is a family KILLER. Lets get some more because al freedom loving people gain by denegration of both parties. Only Democratic Socialism, which both parties oppose,can truly help the people. In sum, the denegration of both parties is to the benefit of the LEFT. Maybe short term it will help conservatives but that will only serve to highlight the apparent class contradictions of the then conservative more. The LEFT wants Clinton Down but progressives say go CLINTOK.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:30 - ID#275194)
A post from golden-eagle forum.

HK Government Wastes $US14 Billion in Trying To Support Market
( WonHungLoh )
Sep 17, 16:54

Shamefacedly, the government of Hong Kong confessed it
had spent 15 percent of its $96 billion foreign reserves
on a two-week buying spree to prop up share prices and
defend the Hong Kong currency, which is set at 7.80 to
the dollar.

Despite all the artificial support to their stock market
the Hang Seng plummeted 3.4% in brisk trading yesterday.


HONG KONG ( September 17, 1998 09:49 a.m. EDT -- The
territory's financial secretary Thursday defended his
government's recent foray into stock markets in response
to criticism from U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman
Alan Greenspan, and said it would intervene again if

Donald Tsang told reporters the government had
"absolutely no other option" but to step into the

"We had to defend the linked exchange rate of Hong Kong,
otherwise it would have triggered off another round of
devaluation in the whole of Asian region and probably
greater disasters outside the region."

Greenspan, in testimony before Congress Wednesday, said
Asian economies, in general, shouldn't turn their backs
on open markets and shouldn't think their actions can be
easily reversed.

He singled out the Hong Kong government's stock and
futures market intervention in August for criticism.

"I don't think it can succeed," Greenspan said. "The
consequences of doing that erodes some of the
extraordinary credibility that the Hong Kong monetary
authorities have achieved over the years."

Tsang said he wasn't going to overreact to Greenspan's
comments, adding that he planned to write a letter to
Greenspan to explain the government position.

"We do understand that from an idealistic position of a
free market, what we did is probably rather
exceptional," Tsang said.

Speaking later on CNBC Asia financial network, Tsang
added he couldn't promise the government wouldn't
intervene again, although it has stayed off the market
this month.

Measures introduced to reinforce the currency peg to the
U.S. dollar and tighten market discipline should have
reduced speculators' harmful activities, and chances of
further government intervention, he said.

Last month, the Hong Kong government took on currency
and stock speculators, ultimately intervening and
changing market rules to close the door on what it
called market manipulation.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:33 - ID#290456)
kapex @ Prechter's EWT

Did you see the EWT special report info I posted at 12:05 and 13:22? Prechter also thinks we are entering wave ( 5 ) of 1.....and the rest.. well, not so pretty.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:36 - ID#287279)
Clearly, you are not yet 30 years old.

Bully Beef
(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:40 - ID#260119)
GO Gold ! NOW!
GO Gold. Gogold PLEASE!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:53 - ID#275194)
Silverbaron: I did see your post at 12:05.
If I was to give one comment about whats going on, I would say "HELP!, I've Fallen and I can't get up"
Any of you out there that think that this is just some sort of correction in an ongoing bull market, have not been paying ATTENTION!!!
The world is in very dire shape. I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought Gold telegraphed it's direction. Gold is going up. When currencies fold the way they have, it won't be long before people will want to be paid in something tangible. i.e. As currencies burn, one country is buying say a tanker of crude oil. With the value of these currencies fluctuating Daily, they may DEMAND to be paid in something that will keep it's value. If things get as bad, as they are beginning to look like they are, then Gold should Soar!! It may even go to heights that were thought unimaginable.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 19:54 - ID#404130)
Bully Beef (GO Gold ! NOW!)

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:08 - ID#287312)
Clinton supporters are gettin scarce as hen's teeth, and we got one here !
Do we just ignore him or what ?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:09 - ID#275194)
Try again;

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:09 - ID#275194)
A lot of activity on Globex in gold.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:15 - ID#37292)
@ ROR and Three Cheers for Clinton
Are you talking about the famous Cheer sisters from Baltimore, Sandy, Mandy, and Candy? they should all be between about 18-22 by now.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:16 - ID#373288)
Suspicious, Namaste' and a fine gulp to ya from the Island that is
could you delineate the "or what" before I answer...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:18 - ID#206235)
Clinton.............has good legal precedent for redefining "sex"
Dear Bill,

It will please you to know that extensive legal research has now been done trying to uncover precedent for what we had all thought was your unique interpretation of what constitues a sexual relationship.

The argument you put forth...that anything short of conventional full penile/vaginal intercourse is not a "sexual relationship".... has, as it turns out, been put forth many times before in the legal system.

Luckily, it turns out that indeed, there is a rather large group of felons, who have used precisely that same argument. Yes, as reported by a Forensic criminologist in today's Marin Independant Journal.... many CHILD MOLESTORS have advanced YOUR same legal definition, by claiming that their deeds were not intercourse....and are therefore not "sex crimes" against their child victims.

I'm sure it must be a relief to know there is a large group of like minded individuals, who share the same kind of rationalizations, and thought processes, which you have been critisized for.

Perhaps you could join a support group of such know, NAMBLA maybe, and seek comfort in being around others who understand the real you.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:20 - ID#288295)

I propose giving him a gulp of BILLY ( tm ) beer and a puff of a MONICA ( tm ) brand cigar ( with its own special sauce, of course ) .

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:25 - ID#333126)
big time planning to keep the price of oil down?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:25 - ID#275194)
Gold Dec. at 295.80
Is this telegraohing the stock market for Friday?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:27 - ID#187109)

BUY Feb Gold ( gcg9 ) - 9/18...hold till 9/23. 84.12% history..... ( 20yrs )

Lots-o-resistence at 305......time to sell there? place my bets


not a reco...

3-2-5 - 11/11/98 ...ohmy?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:31 - ID#348286)
This is starting to look real nice Gold Up, Oil Up, general market hanging on by the skin of its teeth. This is starting to smell more and more like the real thing..........

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:39 - ID#386245)
A portent of things to come
No trading in Oz this a.m.

SEATS -- the stock exchange computers have crashed!!

How much are your shares worth when you can't sell them??

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:41 - ID#348286)
@ 295.80 +1.90
Kitco getting veeerrryyy slow, major bullish indicator. Friday gonna be a tear.........

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:41 - ID#290213)
The work I do involves monitoring computer systems for a large federally funded agency ( who shall remain nameless, but the top person is in deep dodo something involving BJs and peaches ) . The systems I monitor are only slightly affected by Y2K and are compliant. In most cases it involved simple date roll over, material balances brought forward and adjusted, or issuing predetermined date notifications, ie check requisition status in 6 mos or item inactive for 12 mos, with corresponding date. The fix took approx 3 months.
However, some of the more complicated systems requiring trend analysis based on past history are starting to slip target dates. Some are now reporting they will not be compliant till Sept 99. This is well past initial estimates and target directives. Thats sure cuttin the pie pretty thin. It starting to sound like the whole world is betting on a Hail Mary pass. Im sure that my little corner of the world is not the only one experiencing this. Just one more small crack in a very old and fragile dyke.
Think Ill go buy another generator, or gun, or case a food, or maybe an ounce or 2 of gold, or somethin!
What ever anyone does, dont just ignore it! It will affect all in some way. Dont know how, or how much, but at least educate yourself before you deny it. Please! You may have others counting on your decision.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:42 - ID#333126)
Aussie market not open for first 50 minutes!
the excuse is the SEATs computerised system has a "technical difficulty"

hmm... y2k problem or just a general bug or warding off panic?

great possibilities if you think laterally... ;- )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:53 - ID#200235)
Russia may lead the new world order
From the rubble that is now the ruble, the Russians might possibly be the one country that could most easily institute the gold standard in its currency.

Their currency is completely worthless at this time ( for obvious reasons ) and the former long suffering and persistent nation state can now experiment with its currency without having to worry about it losing its value.

Russia has gigantic gold resources ( in the ground ) and limited ( 400 tons ) above ground.

Could it be possible for the politboro to announce the ruble is now backed by gold and this announcement be accepted by the other nation states.

Obviously, there will be great resistance from all the current countries who can simply produce one Billion US $ from one fell swoop of a 50' southern yellow pine tree. ( one tree contains enough pulp to print approximately one billion dollars in 50 dollar bills.

I am only posing this as a question. Is it possible?


(Thu Sep 17 1998 20:55 - ID#348127)

I agree with those feeling the closeness of the crash, but I feel as though they have one more leg up, possibly to 10000. Dont get me wrong, I think anything over DOW 4k is high, but I feel it will tumble harder and faster than a mere 7500 to 6 to 5000 level.Then again I have been in the gold for the last 3 years. Shows how much I know, but I am still buying gold and gold stocks.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:01 - ID#206235)
Filegate..... Still going strong
Well now...I see the Clinton Whitehouse is dredging up sexual picadillo's from 30 years ago all of a sudden on Henry Hyde and folks...hmmmm...wonder where they could GET such info. all of a sudden? FBI files they stole maybe?

Forget it Bill. It won't work. While it's true that many others have had sexual relationships their not particularly anxious to have publisized...folks like Hyde won't lie under oath about it, perjure themselves in Court depositions, suborn perjury, witness tamper, or shake their finger at us and chastise us for not believing that "they didn't have sex with that woman"..

Furthermore, the folks you are now trying to smear, didn't get involved with 21 year old interns and subsequently allow themselves to be blackmailed by same.... all while supposedly conducting the country's business. They didn't keep heads of state waiting while they got BJ's and played footsie in their official place of state business.

You see Bill...the electorate is just not as stupid as you think we are. We see through you, you transparent, phony, sleazy, piece of arroganr dung. Your latest "Scorched earth" tactics will only blow up in your lying face.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:06 - ID#410215)
..... Realistic .....

Cool quote from the Hightower Report. Do you have a URL that I could dig into for more of this specific info? Perhaps this quote should be in my PM review for tomorrow, but I have to find the source. I trust you, but the lawyers want to know where it comes from.

The $360 bottom in platinum held again today. I worry only of another $10 or so on the downside, but the funds keep buying anywhere below $360. I watched the live feed from the trading floor again earlythis morning as $360 broke to $358 and bounced back in seconds. The orders are waiting there and they will protect what they have bought already.

Platinum through the rest of the year.. Gold in January - February.

Thats the ticket.. yeah. thats it.

Keep up the good stuff, your cut and paste is wielded like Excalibur.

Its magic only works for the just against the unjust.

Indeedy So

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:09 - ID#410215)
..... Lurky .....


(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:14 - ID#275194)
LGB@21:01......Don't sugar coat it, tell it like it is!
I just can't believe the length that the willing accomplices in the media are going to for this SCUMBAG!!!!!!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:21 - ID#317211)
Hello to all. Just took my visiting relatives Wed. to romantic Ensenada, Baja Calif.
for a fun day of shopping, sight-seeing, and buying of gold jewelry.
The streets were all torn up for new water,sewer & electrical service,
but the merchants were freindly, mood upbeat, cruise ship tourists
arriving from the harbor by the boatload. At the fish market, bought
20lbs. of huge shrimp & 10lbs. swordfish at US$2.25/lb for BBQ last
nite. "a lovely and freindly place, that Ensenada. A lovely day."

This am, 21 men, women & children stood up in front of a wall north of town and gunned down.A drug cartel from US making a statement to a drug cartel from Tijuana. CBS news says US now doesn't trust Mexico can control its drug lords.

Wonder what Mexico City is thinking about US & its drug lords?

Anyway, Fobaproa debt is US$65.5 billion. My own opinion is that US
and IMF should not participate in another Mexico bailout, so that the
USA drug lords may prevail over the Mexico drug lords.

...what a world

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:28 - ID#348127)
Open your minds and souls while reading the post.

I am going to throw a curveball at you that requires you to look inside of yourself for a minute. The reason most of you are goldbugs is that you are all very old and evolved souls. 240,000 years ago you were created by gods to mine gold for them. Their atmosphere was destroyed and gold dust seeded in it helped protect them from UV. I will not go deep into our story but the reason that many of you feel drawn to gold is that you remember how important and pleasing it was to the gods. That and that maybe you spent a lifetime or two in the mines chisleing it out.

I know what many are saying to yourself right now, but for the one goldbug that just had somethng ring true to him, I say you can get the full story in Zacharia Sitchens book, The 12th Planet or Genisis Revisited.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:28 - ID#423313)
@tolerant1, cherokee, EB, Donald, Old Soldier, etc. a puff to ya'
Yaahte'eh! Been too long--what's namaste' ?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:30 - ID#396249)
TO ALL..If you have any questions what AMERICA means,in the big scem of things..plesae read this..

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:33 - ID#284255)
Who said planes wouldn't fall from the sky?
And gold go to the moon...

Well I'm seeing one of these impossibles happening.

Actually the last one was a chopper.......

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:41 - ID#255226)
If you were short the dec snp from 1050 or higher you had a good day. The market couldn't push to new lows by the end of the day. With out the selling presure at the end of day pushing the market down to new lows it's now possible that the market will retrace today's entire move down over the next couple of days. If the market trades over 1060 during the next couple days sell it with the intention of staying short into the Oct lows. If you use a stop use a wide one.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:53 - ID#317211)
Mexico & USA as business partners. A comment:
Mexico is still living in the heyday of Al Capone, if not the wild west.
The emerging middle class will be sat on/gunned down before they can acquire any wealth.
The 30+ dominant families there will/do control Mexico. Why would they in any way risk their own status and wealth for some idealistic American dream "for the people"?
Get real and let Mexico deteriorate. Do NOT bail them out again.
It has to get way worse before it's gonna get better.
A bitter pill for US business interests there, but it must me swallowed
before any real progress is made.

One man's opinion.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:57 - ID#410215)
..... AUH20 .....

You wrote:

"Russia has gigantic gold resources ( in the ground ) and limited ( 400 tons ) above ground"

I am curious as to the source of this info? Since Russian Gold Reserves are an Official State Secret, not even those at the pinnacle of the gold world really know how much the Russians have. I would love to scoop the world on this juicy statistic but, alas, as in all things, I need to know the source to judge the content.

Do you have any info on Russia encumbering what gold they have to secure international credits? This is crucial to any talk of a gold standard in Russia, yes? What do the Russians say? Are they interested in this. Can it be done?

Using your generous figure of 400 tons * 2000 = 800,000 pounds * 16 ounces per = 12,800,000 ounces, yes? Or $3,584,000,000 at $280 gold ( 3 billion 584 million dollars ) . Roughly 250 million folks over there = .0512 ounces per person / 280 price-o-gold = 14.36 US dollars per person for their allotment of gold. This is not a standard, this is mass starvation on a scale that Stalin would envy.

Let us imagine $1000 gold. That would still equal only $51.20 US per person. How many trillion rubles are out there? At $1000 gold, that is still only $12,800,000,000 - twelve billion, eight hundred million dollars. This is assuming a higher price of gold than has ever occurred before, in fact a twenty percent increase over the all time high for gold. Didnt they just spend $9 billion to defend the ruble a few days back? They would be very hungry for the rest of the year if they were on a gold standard and gold were to rise to unprecedented highs.

No country on earth can go to a gold standard. Ever.

I am still curious, though, could you help me understand this?


Calculators are cheap, and so are speculations. Perhaps checking the numbers, to see if they work, would let a person know if these speculations hold water, yes? Ideas mostly sound great but if the numbers dont back em up, they are pretty abstracts with no basis in reality.

OK Again

Does your handle mean Goldwater?


(Thu Sep 17 1998 21:58 - ID#374235)
In search of a crisis
To All:

WJC is in search of a crisis that will divert attention from Blowgate ( I just made that up ) . He holds, to an extent, the reigns that control the PPT. Might we see the "imminent" crash occuring at the behest of Bill with the PPT acting more like the Plunge Hey Ho Let's Go Team ( PHHLGT ) .

1. Houston, we have a problem.
2. It's the Republican's fault.
3. Let me do my job and I'll save y'all from this Republican Mess.
4. November Elections.

Sound good?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:01 - ID#69149)
Re: Hyde
In the case of Henry Hide, it seems the ex-husband of his former lover found this the perfect moment to exact his revenge for what happened as well as attempt to further justify his action by calling Hyde a hypocrite-and in so doing demonstrate a very shaky grasp of the legal situation re:Clinton and Lewinski.

Bottom line: To compare Hyde or any of the other legislators who have "come out of the closet" to Clinton in order to nullify his misdeads is like comparing someone who drinks too much coffee to a hardened crack addict.

If we let him off, we will be admitting to the victory of moral relativism and situational ethics which-if followed to their logical conclusion-ends in anarchy.

All my humble opinion.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:06 - ID#37292)
Answer to the question...."What's Namaste"
It is a Hindu greeting that most literally translated means "my inner being recognizes the inner being in you".... More loosely, and when used in academic circles, Hindu teachers often assume the praying hands posture while uttering "namaste" to students, meaning to say "...Thank you for allowing me to share my knowledge with you." It could also be translated and americanized to mean..."I am smarter than you are, listen to me."

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:10 - ID#78136)
Bryce Lecture 96
Obviously, Clinton has not read it, nor have most
of the citizens who now believe that those with
special status--politicians, athletes are above
the law, that the Rule of Law does not apply to
everyone. Barbarism here we come.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:10 - ID#410215)
..... Tantalus ....

Try Cabo San Lucas. A more charming spot in Mexico most assuredly exists, but I havent seen it. Fishing, kayaking, diving, snorkeling, and the Downtown Cabo Wabo - owned by Sammy Hagar and the other guys of Van Halen. Prices are high, though. There is only one road to the tip of the Baja Peninsula, so goods come dearly. The structures are all adobe, as no wood grows there and it is too expensive to bring in. This has had the effect of limiting development and could keep Cabo as small and charming as it is for decades to come.

I like it there.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:17 - ID#187109)
lewinsky vs kaczynski

There once was a gal named Lewinsky
Who played on a flute like Stravinsky
'Twas "Hail to the Chief"
On this flute made of beef
That stole the front page from Kaczynski.


Said Bill Clinton to young Ms. Lewinsky
We don't want to leave clues like Kaczynski,
Since you look such a mess,
Use the hem of your dress
And wipe that stuff off of your chinsky.

Lewinsky and Clinton have shown
What Kaczynski must surely have known:
That an intern is better
Than a bomb in a letter
Given the choice of how to be blown.

had to post it.........ROFLOL...not my limericks..... ( although I love a good limerick ) .......... ( 'member when we posted limericks? ) .....uh huh. results of a contest.....or something. yuk it up

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:19 - ID#304282)
Hong Kong down 150

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:25 - ID#304282)
Hong Kong down 180

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:26 - ID#293211)
ADL and CLinton Clash
wer behind... sex & lies.
VERITAS News Service - Sources within the United States military intelligence community
have revealed that President Clinton not only angered the CFR by screwing the Bush
coalition but he has seriously affronted the British Israelites and Zionists... and that is the
source of his present difficulties. Moreover the President doesn't seem to have a clue,
although Hillary might know exactly what is going on. 
The Monica Lewinsky allegations arose right after Clinton refused to back Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan. Clinton called for Israel to pull troops out of some of
it's territory that has been ultimately promised to Palestinian rule against Netanyahu's and
Zionist's wishes. Clinton also made a public statement that he thought it was unreasonable
to demand the PLO retract its call for the "destruction of the State of Israel," and urged
Yassar Arafat to ignore the demand. Just a day or two ago he reiterated his call for Israel to
remove troops from some of it's territory. 
Linda Tripp is Jewish, a member of the ADL, affiliated with the Mossad, affiliated with the
United States Intelligence Community, and was involved in an operation to discredit the
Militia post "Oklahoma City". Linda Tripp is a Zionist. 
Monica Lewinsky is Jewish. She is a Zionist. Her family is affiliated with the ADL, is
Zionist, and is Jewish. Ms Lewinsky's Attorney is a member of the ADL, is a Zionist, and is
Jewish. Furthermore the presence of highly classified White House documents in Monica
Lewinsky's possession indicates she may be a Mossad spy. She is certainly someone's spy.
Kenneth Starr is an anglophile British Israelite and a Zionist. 
The entire media complex of the United States is owned by Zionist and pro British interests.
Since WW-II the CIA and Military Intelligence communities have exercised a majority
control over the press in this country. It was brought home recently by the DCIA's defense
of the CIA's policy of recruiting journalists for intelligence ( read propaganda ) purposes. The
CIA has traditionally been and is in the complete control of British Israelite and Zionist
bureaucrats. 
Hillary Clinton was right on the money when she named a conspiracy but she was off when
she called it right wing... unless British Israelism and Zionism can be called right wing. She
nailed Jerry Falwell... as he is a raving Zionist. 
The only thing that can save Clinton from the wrath of British Israelite and Zionist wealth
and power is a complete reversal of his recent policy regarding Israel. In addition he would
be required to make an apology for his statements.
If he does not do these things they will get him... if not with Monica Lewinsky then with
something... or someone else. Go to: for an
explanation on how this is accomplished. This appears to be he best explanation yet why the
liberal press is crucifying the President they have gone to so much trouble to protect during
his Presidency.
Directory of Press Releases

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:29 - ID#219363)
Warren Buf.
They made a big deal of mr WB's purchasing of USD with some of his other assets on the television today. Just looking at his previous investments - buying low ( bonds ) , selling high ( recent bond unloading ) , you just have to figure he's been out there buying Gold and Oil like there ain't no tomorrow. Pretty nifty having 9 billion in USD I bet, probably burning a hole in his pocket right about now, he's buying something with it. If he doesn't, then he's risking having cash in his hand when the $US drops off, unless he thinks it's going to go a lot higher. He apparently doesn't think the US equity market is a good place to be investing right now - said that stocks were still over-valued. Hmm.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:30 - ID#187109)
this is PURE speculation.....
I think those Roooooskies have a buttload of gold.........uh huh. Try to refute that one ;- )

Irvine-Fella - Ensenada is one of my favorite spots. The surfing Between Ens. and S.D. is MOST EXCELLENT. The night life good too. There is a place on the 'main drag' that serves up one of the best chicken mole's I have tasted. Hussong's is a dive.......I love it.

I have not been so impressed by Cabo San's OK. If you like to fish it is VERY good. To each....his own, EH? How is Koooookoooooboooooora?? ( 'nother wink ) get ANOTHER Foster's.............

urp ( ! )

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:31 - ID#435212)
RJ (..... AUH20 .....)

GOLD ..... Russsia and China......

The Russsians and Chinese take their gold production very seriously.

The Russian Federation and China produce approximately 4.7 and 3.5 million ounces per year.

Uzbekistan produces about 2.25 million ounces per year, with 2 million ounces coming from the largest gold mine in the world the Muruntau mine which has 1 billion tonnes @ 3 g/t gold resources.

Food for thought........



(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:33 - ID#201109)
Oh my!
Whenever we f*** up we just add up the number of "them" and come up with a plausible explanation for our "boy's" problems. Yassah, we R victims!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:36 - ID#293211)
Clinton and Hitler have a lot in Common
VERITAS News Service - In a revealing admission the Director of Resource Management for the U.S. Army
confirmed the validity of a memorandum relating to the establishment of a civilian inmate labor program under
development by the Department of the Army. The document states, "Enclosed for your review and comment is the
draft Army regulation on civilian inmate labor utilization" and the procedure to "establish civilian prison camps
on installations." Cherith Chronicle, June 1997.
Civilian internment camps or prison camps, more commonly known as concentration camps, have been the
subject of much rumor and speculation during the past few years in America. Several publications have devoted
space to the topic and many talk radio programs have dealt with the issue.
However, Congressman Henry Gonzales ( D, Texas ) clarified the question of the existence of civilian detention
camps. In an interview the congressman stated, "the truth is yes - you do have these stand by provisions, and the
plans are here...whereby you could, in the name of stopping terrorism...evoke the military and arrest Americans
and put them in detention camps."
The concept of mass internment camps was implemented during the decade of the 1930's when the idea was
either integrated into national security planning or put to actual use in the world's three socialistic experiments
- the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and the United States under Roosevelt.
On March 9, 1933, Adolph Hitler put his Dachau detention center into operation where thousands of his own
countrymen were sent. ( Source: Martin Gilber,The Holocaust ) . Stalin exterminated 7 to 10 million in his rural
collectivization program from 1931-1933 and another 10 million in the purges of 1934-1939. It was this decade
that the Soviet Gulag proved its worth. On August 24, 1939, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover met with FDR to
develop a detention plan for the United States. Five months after this meeting, Hitler opened the Auschwitz
detention center in Poland.
On August 3, 1948, J. Edgar Hoover met with Attorney General J. Howard McGrath to form a plan whereby
President Truman could suspend constitutional liberties during a national emergency. The plan was code-named
"Security Portfolio" and, when activated, it would authorize the FBI to summarily arrest up to 20,000 persons
and place them in national security detention camps. Prisoners would not have the right to a court hearing or
habeas corpus appeal. Meanwhile, "Security Portfolio" allowed the FBI to develop a watch list of those who would
be detained, as well as detailed information on their physical appearance, family, place of work, etc. ( David
Burnham, Above the Law ) .
Two years later Congress approved the Internal Security Act of 1950 which contained a provision authorizing an
emergency detention plan. Hoover was unhappy with this law because it did not suspend the constitution and it
guaranteed the right to a court hearing ( habeas corpus ) . "For two years, while the FBI continued to secretly
establish the detention camps and work out detailed seizure plans for thousands of individuals, Hoover kept
badgering...[Attorney General McGrath for] official permission to ignore the 1950 law and carry on with the
more ferocious 1948 program. On November 25, 1952, the attorney general...caved in to Hoover." ibid.
Congress repealed the Emergency Detention Act of 1950 more than twenty years later in 1971. Seemingly the
threat of civilian internment in the United States was over, but not in reality. The Senate held hearings in
December, 1975, revealing the ongoing internment plan which had never been terminated. The report, entitled,
"Intelligence Activities, Senate Resolution 21", disclosed the covert agenda. In a series of documents, memos
and testimony by government informants, the picture emerged of the designs by the federal government to
monitor, infiltrate, arrest and incarcerate a potentially large segment of American society.
The Senate report also revealed the existence of the Master Search Warrant MSW ) and the Master Arrest
Warrant ( MAW ) which are currently in force. The MAW document, authorized by the United States Attorney
General, directs the head of the FBI to: "Arrest persons whom I deem dangerous to the public peace and safety.
These persons are to be detained and confined until further order." The MSW also instructs the FBI Director to
"search certain premises where it is believed that there may be found contraband, prohibited articles, or other
materials in violation of the Proclamation of the President of the United States." It includes such items as
firearms, shortwave radio receiving sets, cameras, propaganda materials, printing presses, mimeograph
machines, membership and financial records of organizations or groups that have been declared subversive, or
may be hereafter declared subversive by the Attorney General."

Since the Senate hearings in 1975, the steady development of highly specialized surveillance capabilities,
combined with the exploding computerized information technologies, have enabled a massive data base of
personal information to be developed on millions of unsuspecting American citizens. It is all in place awaiting
only a presidential declaration to be enforced by both military and civilian police.
In 1982, President Ronald Reagan issued National Security Directive 58 which empowered Robert McFarlane
and Oliver North to use the National Security Council to secretly retrofit FEMA ( Federal Emergency
Management Agency ) to manage the country during a national crisis. The 1984 "REX
exercises" simulated civil unrest culminating in a national emergency with a contingency plan for the
imprisonment of 400,000 people. REX 84 was so secretive that special metal security doors were installed on the
FEMA building's fifth floor, and even long-term officials of the Civil Defense Office were prohibited entry. The
ostensible purpose of this exercise was to handle an influx of refugees created by a war in Central America, but a
more realistic scenario was the detention of American citizens.
Under "REX" the President could declare a state of emergency, empowering the head of FEMA to take control of
the internal infrastructure of the United States and suspend the constitution. The President could invoke
executive orders 11000 thru 11004 which would:
1- Draft all citizens into work forces under government supervision.
2- Empower the postmaster to register all men, women and children.
3- Seize all airports and aircraft.
4- Seize all housing and establish forced relocation of citizens.
FEMA, whose black budget comes from the Department of Defense, has worked closely with the Pentagon in an
effort to avoid the legal restrictions of Posse Comitatus. While FEMA may not have been directly responsible for
these precedent-setting cases, the principle of federal control was seen during the Los Angeles riots in 1992
with the federalization of the National Guard and during the siege at Waco, where Army tanks equipped with
flame throwers were involved in the final conflagration.
The Deputy Attorney General of California commented at a conference that anyone who attacks the State, even
verbally, becomes a revolutionary and an enemy by definition. Louis Guiffreda, who was head of FEMA, stated that
"legitimate violence is integral to our form of government, for it is from this source that we can continue to
purge our weaknesses."
It is significant to note that the dictionary definition of terrorism - "the calculated use of violence" - corresponds
precisely to the government's stated policy of "the use of legitimate violence." One might ask, who are the real
terrorists? Guiffreda's remark gives a revealing insight into the thinking of those who have been charged with
oversight of the welfare of the citizens in this country. If one's convictions or philosophy does not correspond
with the government's agenda, that individual may find himself on the government's enemy list. This makes him
a "target" to be "purged" by the use of "legitimate violence." If one forgets the past, he will not be prepared for
the future.>

The Winds is The World Internet News Distributary Source of information of interest to
Americans interested in truth.

For Further Information Contact:
The Winds

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:37 - ID#286230)
Lots of astrologers here--Any astronomers?
Full moon tonight?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:37 - ID#187109)
from TOL#1.......I thought he was a goner.......AGULP tp ya.

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:38 - ID#427265)
Marshall (ADL and CLinton Clash........

Clinton has been in a "little" boat for the last twenty odd years....

The "Tug Master" has now set him adrift..... he has lost face with his Masters, and may now be surplus to reguirements.

Clinton is past the point of NO return !

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:38 - ID#219363)
Anyone have a chart for this ? When the dollar falls off some, what is it falling off against ? Marks ? Yen ? What's the best currency value out there that has the potential to retain lots of it's value against the USD ? All roads seem to lead back to Gold, but is there anything else out there that's a good buy ? If wealth were to drop the dollar like a hot rock, where would it run TO ?

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:40 - ID#435212)
Envy (Question)

This should solve your question.....

(Thu Sep 17 1998 22:49 - ID#339320)

Esteemed Mooney,,
Thanks for the saludos.
I've been rather invisible the last few months, but do peek in once in a while ( too much work/travel ) . Still dodging Venezuelan politics....and trying to make a profit somehow. Thing are looking rather bleak here in the short to mid term....I guess after Y2K it will be about the same everywhere.

Hope life is treating you well.
Best Regards,

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:01 - ID#284255)
The Federal Web Locator

For those who pry?

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:05 - ID#284255)
The Federal Web Locator

For those who pry?

Farm Bureau Lists Steps You Should Take Before Y2K

Sound advice?

The Hatt
(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:07 - ID#294232)
Chas/Skinny/Codeman Claimstaker looked great today!
Got a company profile on Jipangu today and they actually talk quite a bit about Claimstaker Resources. They have over fifty million in cash yes you read it right and they have a corporate goal of making Claimstaker an intermediate producer in quick order. It appears that they will use Claimstaker as a vehicle to produce gold for them. I think we can expect unusual growth here guys as properties are cheap now and the IR guy told me that they were searching out other near production properties!!!!!! Blackdome now in production will produce 3600 ounces of gold per month at a cost of $250.00 Canadian, do the numbers and tell me this stock is not cheap at $.30...... I urge all to do their DD and they will find that this is a tremendous way to play gold with enormous leverage!

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:11 - ID#410215)
..... Greenstone Gold (are you indeed the poster formerly known as Haggis .....

Russian gold production numbers are so cooked as to be meaningless. Barons reported last year that the mining industry and Norislk Nickel in particular are running at max 25% capacity. The machinery is broken down - with no replacement parts in existence. Electricity runs through less than half of the mines, and the miners have not been paid for more than two years. This is not a model of efficient production.

The Russians have been caught adding scrap reclamation to new production numbers and moving metal from mine to mine to make it look as if production is higher than it actually is. This is what the Russians do best, misinform. Damn Roooskies forced us to spend trillions on a cold war that they could never win. We now know how deficient most of their military structure is, and how inaccurate and unreliable their ballistic missiles are.

Added to the mess, the good folks of the Motherland insist on voting communists back into power. Primakov is an ex-KGB chief and Red to the core. He might appear to be somewhat more moderate than his past would imply, but this guy is too old, with much too much power to ever change his spots.

Western money is the only thing that will save Russia. Western money will not risk investments in a country in which entire industries are on the verge of re-nationalization.

Huh uh

EB -
I too ROTFL ( Ralphed ( with glee ) Over The Funny Limericks ) . I wish you did write them. Hell.... I wish I wrote them.

Kookaburra is sitting nearby, nice and shiny and in my sight as I type. Although I have its brothers and sisters, 'tis a sticky biz to part with such a noble coin. ( did that drive up the price? ) .

For the rest of youse guys and gals who think gold is money and platinum is.... well..... white.... I have a tiny story to tell:

I have never bartered gold for anything in my life, nor would ever wish too. I have however, recently bartered a bit-o-platinum for a pair of spectacles, through which I can see the keys to type these words, and through which I read all of yours. We were both pleased with the deal ( Though I think I made and extra $10 - $20 on it, but my bartering partner never asked for a penny extra, and seems as pleased as I with the exchange.

Call me BarterMan
Better yet, BarterDude

With platinum no less.

Go figure

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:13 - ID#327123)
Is there anyone on this forum that can tell me where I can get prices on Japanese gold commerative coins and possibly purchase the same??? Please e-mail me @

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:13 - ID#219363)
@Greenstone Gold
Is there a currency index that shows Gold's value increase and decrease relative to "everything", that is, in value terms vs. every currency's value ? Probably a stupid question. Maybe something like a plot that shows the "average" of world currencies against precious metals. Reason I ask is that sometimes is so hard to tell whether Gold is up, or if the dollar is just down. Need "fiat currency vs. Gold" *grin*. Following charts USD/Ruble vs. Gold ( if I've posted it correctly )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:17 - ID#373284)
Imrahil_A, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...I see
the venerable EB has supplied the correct answer...a gulp to ya EB...been out cooking dinner and such for my brother and his wife as they needed a break... had a great time...finally made some headway on gold and Y2K...uh huh...

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:23 - ID#435212)

"Russian gold production numbers are so cooked as to be meaningless."

...................could this read...........

"Dow index figures are so cooked as to be meaningless".........



(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:29 - ID#409232)
Envy.......try this currency converter
You'll see "Gold 1 oz" as one of the options in the box....

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:29 - ID#284255)
Prudent Paranoia

President Gore Extends State of Emergency

President Gore Extends State of Emergency Continues Martial Law

Former President Clinton Unavailable For Comment

Major U.S. Cities Face Increasing Problems, Disorder

Could this be real?
When - 15 months or LESS.


So is Dow 10,000

What of Dow 3000?
What if this ficticious story is grossly underestimating the consequences?

Start to prepare.
What you say?

Buy Grub, Gold, Guns
I say
I expect worse.

Why you say?
Because the information is already out there to read to convince oneself.

Become aware!!!!
And seek to save the lives of you, your family and your friends.

Or sit on your butt and do nothing.

Coming soon to a town near you.

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:34 - ID#427265)

"Western money is the only thing that will save Russia. Western money will not risk investments........."

I am informed that the IMF are running a wee bit short of funds ?

Injecting more debt into the system is likje pouring more alcohol down an alcoholics thorat, fuel to the fire ?!

DERIVATIVES......Western money will nor risk investments......

Correct me if I am wrong, surely the current monetry crisis id a CAPITALIST CRISIS and not a COMMUNIST CRISIS.....?

Debt, either way, is the wrong way to go about business....too much emphasis on Governments, who have cocked it up in the first instance.

Mirrors, mirrors....... everyone is looking at themsleves through reflections, what they do not realize is that they do not need a mirror in the first place.


(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:36 - ID#409232)
Envy...try this..again...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:36 - ID#430221)
@ Envy about index for gold vs everything else
Take a look at Dabchick's index - latest figures were posted about 10AM last Saturday in response to my request. Very interesting index and does pretty much what you want I think - gold relative to all currencies. Dabchick's initial post was not quite a week earlier in which s/he explained the index and the rationale behind it. Worth looking up I think. Maybe someone else knows the exact time/date of the post.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:36 - ID#410215)
..... Greenstone Gold (PFKAH) .....

I thought you were talking about gold. There is a fundamental difference twixt a market, freely traded, and governmental deception about production numbers. I dont see the parallel.

My point is that the numbers are unknown but worldwide, mining experts point to declining Russian production of all things including the metals.

This a somewhat more fundamental argument. If one of the largest gold producers on earth cannot mine the metal, and others will not risk the investment to improve the diggings; this would put a real dent in global production and could spell higher gold prices. The price height is limited though, by producer forward sales, and will remain so for the rest of the year.

Go Gold


(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:38 - ID#410194)
.... RJ ....
Those Platinum comments were posted from the Hightower Report analysts and researchers at 7:20 this morning and I have access to their daily comments through my accounts at Lind-Waldock, my brokerage firm.

It's a paid service though and the way their comments are posted to us ( account members ) is that we can't even "copy" from the screen, I tried. So when I notice something very interesting, I re-type everything, just like I did today about Platinum. Everything is just as they wrote, I quoted everything.

They have a website that you may look at:

Some people find it a bit expensive but when the costs are being substrated from a trading account, it's worth to look at their comments as I find them very objective and realistic.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:41 - ID#93241)
Dabchick reprint
Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 10:53
Dabchick ( Valuing gold independent of any fiat currency ) ID#258195:
Copyright  1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Having been lurking now for over six months, I must thank Bart and all you contributors for the wealth of knowledge and experience which has been given freely to less gifted souls like me. To be allowed to hear from so many people of integrity has been a rare privilege which is greatly valued.

I have been following gold and South African gold-mining shares for about 16 years and over that time have had my quota of losses - and some gains - like most people I suspect.

One thing that has struck me over those 16 years is that, because the price of gold is almost always quoted in US Dollars, gold's "real" value becomes obscured. That is to say, its value......... independent of any fiat currency.

If an independent index of gold's value ( in Units ) is constructed, it can, I believe, be quite a useful tool.

It is a tool which I maintain for myself on a daily basis.

I calculate the Unit figure at the end of each day using this formula : A x B / 452

where :

A = The day's Gold price in US Dollars

B = The Bank of England's Trade-weighted Currency Index for the US Dollar as given daily in the Financial Times

452 = a constant which refers A & B back to the levels which they had in January 1982.

I chose January 1982 as the starting point because gold seemed to have settled down quite well by then after the excesses of 1979 - 1981.

FWIW, if its value on this basis was 100 units in January 1982, then its main peaks and troughs went like this:

Jan 1982 100
Feb 1983 143
May 1986 093
Oct 1987 110
Aug 1992 069
Jan 1994 083
May 1995 076
Feb 1996 086
Dec 1997 069

Note that the August 1992 monthly average bottom held firm in December 1997 ( last December ) .

It is my hope that if this double bottom can hold, we shall see an ongoing rising trend in the unitary price of gold over the next 10 to 11 years.

For a start, good old gold is trying hard to not disappoint us so far this year. Its average monthly unitary values for the first 8 months so far in 1998 were ( to one decimal point ) as follows :


Perhaps we should all try to keep an on-going track of its value in this way, as it helps to show how gold is being valued independent of fiat currencies. It's a simple daily calculation, and I find it often puts a good perspective on gold when its dollar price makes me unduly optimistic or pessimistic. For instance, when gold in London touched a low of $271.0 on Friday 28th August ( a few days ago ) , that equated to 068.35 Units on my index which was above the previous intraday low of 067.55 which equated to $277.7 on Friday January 09th ( eight months ago ) .

Being unable to monitor this discussion continuously, I don't know if the above is common knowledge here already. If it is............. apologies to all. And if there is another gold bullion index commonly used, I would be glad to hear about it. I do know the World Gold Council touched on the subject in its Feb 1998 Gold Demand Trends issue 22 on page 15 so perhaps we can help get such an index started which will eventually dissociate gold's value from the dollar or any other fiat currency for that matter.

Thank you for your attention.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:42 - ID#410215)
..... He Be ..... EB .....

Isnt Todos Santos ( an island of the coast of Encinada ) one of the premier big wave spots on earth? The guy who won the 50K surf challenge for the biggest wave, surfed the winner in TS.

You are very close to another world class break; Mavericks off Half moon bay. The waves break a half mile from the shore in fifty feet of water covering jagged rocks. Only the pros go here and not all of them make it home. Next big winter, Im headed up to Mavericks to see the big boys surf the big stuff.

Tell you what, your put a bunch-o-those Fosters in a cooler, and Ill pick you up on the way north. We will watch those waves, for I would never try to surf them. You may be of a hardier cut though, so I will watch you surf the 60 footers. I will take pictures though one of those long lensed sniper cameras that all those "paperazzis" use. ( George Cloonys construct )

We will see you on the cover of Surer Mag by March.

Lets do this


(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:42 - ID#16255)
@sharefin... most people I know think I am a NUT!
I have tried to spread the word to as many people I can and they look
at me and say what are you smoking. I am about to give up and hunker down
to take care of my own only. I work with people who have just taken one
of those 125% mortgages to buy "this dip" in the stock pipe dream.
I have always appreciated your posts and follow your links. I work in the
computer industry and most there are running with blinders on!

Best Regards, O.L.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:44 - ID#254321)
Whitewater and wishful thinking - perhaps not
Who cares? I can't fault your reasoning -- I also wondered why Kenneth Starr went after Monica and not the meat.

On retrospect, I think KS's approach was brilliant. Demoralize the opposition with Monicagate, and suddenly you have witnesses coming out of the woodwork, no longer afraid they will have their children threatened, or their legs broken, or their careers ruined.

I think Kenneth Starr is on the home stretch, and as long as he can keep those two grand juries open, he stands a chance of nailing Hillary on racketeering charges which do not have a statute of limitations.

You must agree with me that Kenneth Starr looks much too happy to be empty-handed, and WJC looks like he is runnning scared.

But -- we are talking about the comeback kid. Somehow I think this is different. WJC's reputation has been ruined, and will take years that he does not have to get it back.

Notice the 'Vietnam war grade' demonsttations? Amazingly all in the last two weeks. Just wait another two weeks.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:45 - ID#187109)
but of course.....we paid our taxes. follow the letter of the law
ornFree..... ( as free as the buffalo roam ) ...

pm's are good food...

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:47 - ID#284255)
And from the Senate

Still thinking?

time out.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:48 - ID#238422)
1.My friend, how in the hell do you know that Russian
ballistic missiles are not good? Did they try to fire
at you and miss...?

2.Western money can save Russia ( by the way, from whom? )
I estimate West should deliver, say, 400-500 billion produce some noticable effect. It would be
cheaper to say West CAN NOT save Russia...

3.You are right on Russian gold.

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:50 - ID#410215)
..... Realistic .....

Thanks, I'll try to work it in without using it as a quote.

Does the analyst have a name?

Wondering Who


(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:53 - ID#431200)
 Canada has accumulated C$3.4 trillion in total liabilities,
September 17, 1998 Canada social programs ballooning debt - study
TORONTO, Sept 17 ( Reuters ) - Canada's debt, already second worst among Group of Seven nations, is ballooning because of open sky policies that back social programs for an aging populace, according to a study released on Thursday by the Fraser Institute, a right-wing think-tank.  Canada has accumulated C$3.4 trillion in total liabilities, according to the institute's yearly debt study, which translates to each Canadian owing C$113,532, almost four times the average Canadian salary. From 1993 to 1997 the direct debt of Canada's federal, provincial and local governments grew from C$616 billion to C$785 billion, while total liabilities increased from C$2.8 trillion to C$3.4 trillion. Direct debt is the money governments and their agencies borrow, while total liabilities include both the debt and the money required to fund government programs. Accounting for 73 percent of liabilities are future obligations, programs and benefits that governments have committed to provide in perpetuity, such as Old Age Security, the Canada Pension Plan and health care, the institute said. It said the programs were designed in the 1960s, "when it was considered favorable social and economic policy transfer a small amount of money from a large group of younger workers to benefit a small group of relatively poor retirees."
 But seniors will represent 38.9 percent of the working age population by 2030, up from 19.8 percent in 1995, "undermining the ability of these plans to provide the intended level of benefits."
 Since federal and many provincial budgets should be in surplus by the year 2000, the report said it's now time to consider the viability of the health care system and income support systems.
 "As a start, Canada's debt burden and tax levels should be decreased to make taxpayers better off and lessen the enormous pressure on our public finances implied by demographic trends and the current structures of these programs," said Michael Walker, executive director of the Fraser Institute
 Prime Minister Jean Chretien's remarks last weekend that this year's federal budget surplus will be used to help pay off the debt is a good development, Walker said.
 "This will reduce the total amount of direct federal debt, and start the federal government in the same direction that the provinces have been moving in," he said.
 Finance Minister Paul Martin also reiterated on Thursday the government's plan to attack the debt load now the deficit has been wiped out.
 "We have eliminated the deficit and we're going to stay the course. We will in each and every budget retire the debt," Martin told a Liberal Party breakfast in suburban Toronto.
 Recent global difficulties will have no real impact on Canada's debt this fiscal year, but next year could be a different story, he said.
 ( $1 $1.53 Canadian )

(Thu Sep 17 1998 23:54 - ID#219363)
Value Preservation
Just went through and looked at Gold as a value hedge against currency de-valuation, and right now, I'd say the best dollar play would have to be against Gold. If Greenspan lowers rates ( which I hope he doesn't ) , what he is in effect doing is forcing the dollar down to make US business competitive with the rest of the world. Said another way, the FED will be making dollars worth less vs. everything else. It would be called inflation if we weren't in the midst of deflation, so it appears more as a stablization of the dollar. Make no mistake, however, it is taking value out of your USD because it increases or "eases" as the FED calls it, people's ability to get USD. Can you believe people actually beg the FED to do this ? The situation is further exacerbated by foreigners fleeing the USD to protect their own wealth. So where do you put your wealth if not in USD ? Well, that's a toughie. If you were to purchase Yen, your cash would go UP vs. the USD, but it may indeed being going down in value across the board because all currencies may fall in "real cosmic value" terms. *grin*. You could very well end up with lots more USD that are worth less. Since the USD seems to be the currency of last resort, I don't see a currency play that would net you as much value as the play on Gold. Keep in mind I don't know anything about it really, and that this is just my own common sense ( I hope ) talking. Whatever you do, don't try to compete with the government's printing press, you will lose. Mr. Greenspan, America has too much wealth, please lower interest rates and take some of it away from us. Jezzus.