Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:00 - ID#225369)
in my humble opinion,i.e. :If you disagree;you're wrong.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:03 - ID#254321)
No problem
MiloTrdr_A: Welcome if you are new!
IMHO == In my humble opinion ( but few on this site are really humble )
IMO == In my opinion

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:03 - ID#254321)
No problem
MiloTrdr_A: Welcome if you are new!
IMHO == In my huble opinion ( but few on this site are really humble )
IMO == In my opinion

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:07 - ID#410215)
..... Tavarijsh Oris & Sir RLM .....

Those .356s are tough to get, but the extra precision is worth it. Like Spinal Taps amps.they went to eleven, didn't they? Greatness is to be found in tiny fractions. Surprised at my claim of 50 meters? I boast not, it is where the targets were, and were they fell.. repeatedly. Not with one of those "long" guns, but with something a bit more portable and extremely well suited to close in wet work, but effective to a range that, should you miss, you still have an excellent head start for running away.

For that reason I have always believed that:

Handguns are Handy

( The following is a true story.. except for two things, and it aint the 50 meters )

They taught me the M16 in the army. I wasnt that good at it. Best I could claim was, if I missed you on the first shot, odds were better than even that Id get you on the second shot. You were statistically dead by my third shot so I never needed a fourth. I didnt like this multiple shot dependence as it smacked of loose discipline and too much easy living. Give me a high powered rifle with a decent scope and I can part an ants antennae - but with that kind of firepower and optics, who couldnt?

I thought I was a failure and doomed to lobbing grenades or shooting rockets instead of those sexy three round burst patterns almost everyone else could do. I hung my head in shame, and qualified as something called "Sharpshooter". The only thing sharp about my shooting was the point of that 5.56 round belching from the wiggling tip of my BPAR ( Black Plastic Army Rifle ) , the only problem was that I couldnt make that point go where I wanted.

I threw down the M16 in disgust, gave the finger to the drill instructor and yelled this was a bunch of crap. The sergeant came over and stuck his face in mine and said in a deadly quiet hiss, "You got problems, son?". Yeah, right, "Damn right I got problems sarg, all this shootin stuff is stupid, I dont like it, and Im going home. You guys can all kiss my ass." The sergeants face tuned purple and veins bulged from his forehead as he slumped to the ground in shock. When the colonel learned of this grossly stupid insubordination, he promptly sent me of to Army Intelligence, where I found the only people I ever met in the United States Armed Forces who did take the whole damn thing so seriously.

Cut to a couple years later, and Im getting ready to go to Beirut, and the colonel wants us to get aquatinted with a variety of weapons, so he sends us down to the range with some Special Forces guys. The Green Berets have all the really good guns. They got a warehouse on Ft. Bragg that is filled to the brim with every kind of weapon manufactured in the world. Since it is the Special Forces job to train insurgent fighting forces, they had to be familiar with any weapon they might encounter.

Unlike my other times on the shooting range, where safety was fanatically practiced to the point of distraction, these SF guys just dump a bunch of different guns on the table, with a bunch of ammo for each, and told us to pick a couple weapons and have fun. No Range Officer yelling, "Ready on the left Ready on the right" No stupid custom of shoving a cleaning rod down the barrel to make sure a round was not jammed within. Just grab, point, and shoot. This would be cool.

I surveyed the goodies and inwardly squealed with delight. Not a cursed M16 to be found. Instead the table was filled with AKs, German G3s ( a shoulder fired 7.62 rifle that looks more like an old musket than a modern piece of weaponry. Damn thing would shoot nearly strait at 300 meters, but it was just too cumbersome to fool with ) , Sigs of all types, and a few Browning nines.

I still had to suppress a shudder of horror, sure that my sharpshooter secret would come out. Officially I was 28 out of 40 with the M16 while most around me were shooting 38 to 40. I grimly considered shooting the rest of the soldiers around me to keep this shameful secret forever, but I realized they were all better shots than me, and the best I could do was to miss or wing a couple before they cut me down in a hail of automatic fire. The hell with it, screw those guys, theres no M16s here, maybe these other guns are better at hitting what they are aimed at. I grabbed a couple of Brownings and the little Sig automatic and an AK ( just for looks ) and went on down to the range.

Now this was a M16 range we were on. The kind with the foxholes and those pop up man sized silhouettes, that would drop satisfyingly out of sight when your round found its home and killed the target.. with extreme prejudice. The targets were spaced from 50 to 300 meters ( the outer effective range of the M16 ) . After a few magazines of AK and Sig rounds - to little effect - I threw the longer guns in the mud and reach for the Browning nines.

Ever see one of those John Woo Hong Kong cop flicks? You know, with Chow Young Fat, or Tiger Li? They never shoot with one gun; always two, one in each hand; which is exactly the way I decided to test this rifle range with handguns. I aimed the right hand nine at a 50 meter drop down silhouette and squeezed off a single round.

I have always hated those silhouette targets, too bland to be trusted, no features at all, and I dearly love to see them fall down; which is precisely what the target I shot did. a soundless plop and then, a few moments later, the damn thing would slowly rise again like some army green indestructible hellspawn phoenix thingie. I thought this was unfair; in real life the targets tend to stay down. Yet this cheeky fellow was popping up to taunt me!

"Its only a flesh wound, Ive had worse", it mocked and I could swear there was a smirk on its formerly bland face. The thing that really got me though, was the slowness with which my wounded target would rise. What was the point to that? If it did not want to get shot again, why not stay down there, bland smirky face in the dirt, and pray I have had my way with it to the end and will prosecute this mindless vendetta no further? But rise it did, slowly, inexorably, soon standing tall, a stark silhouette as inviting as any I have ever seen. And it had no gun! No arms or legs either! This would be a snap. Screw you paly, eat lead. I squeezed of another careless round.

50 meters is almost a light year in handgun terms, but the target dropped - there was no denying it. Thinking I had a faulty target, I moved a couple firing points down the row where I dropped another 50 meter target on the first shot; this was starting to get fun.. and a little weird.

I aimed at the hundred meter target and hit one of seven shots. The shot that found its home was aimed about two feet above the targets head and the hit was more a circumstance of lucky ballistics than any skill I could claim. Too far for this short barreled gun so I went back to the 50 meter guys, who were all insufferably smirking with bland insolence.

I positioned myself between two firing point and Blam Blam, one to the left and one to the right; and both targets fell. Damn, this is cool and, since I had a basic and justified hatred for these targets, I felt no remorse or sorrow at their passing. I knew this was a cold and heartless position to take, but I was young and cocksure and brash and I have mellowed oh so very very much over the years.

A whirring sound caught my attention as both targets rose from their ashes and once again rudely challenged me the way I have never been challenged before. They just stood there - as if they could stan, with no legs! I popped a couple rounds in each, aiming for the forehead on the first shot for a good center chest shot, and then dropping to chest level for a clean head shot as the target dropped.

A couple of SF guys were watching this with surprised amusement as I started call the targets dirty rats and asked them if they were talking to me, cause I dont see anyone else here, so they must be talking to me. I waited for the targets to rise again and dropped them with a single shot to the forehead in each - like the Moe Green hit in "The Godfather".

This was fifty meters away and these targets were mine. They could be standing right in front of me for I could not miss. I reloaded, and when they popped up again, I emptied both magazines into the falling targets. Only the first couple of shots hit their mark but the rest were grouped tightly around the target as puffs of dirt rose from where the rounds hit the dirt.

I had found a talent I did not know I had, but I wondered if it was my irrational hatred of those silhouette targets that was willing the rounds to find their home in the brain pan of those smirking bastards. So I asked one of the SF guys to toss a soda can out on the range, insisting that it be a full one. The can was tossed about 20 - 25 meters in front of me and a bit to the left. I waited for it to settle and sent A&W root beer spurting everywhere with my next two shots. I found that I could hit more if I aimed less; an intuitive bonding of man and gunpowder and lead. I understood that the gun desperately wanted to find its target and only needed me to point and pull the trigger. I did not fight the gun, but let it do what it wanted most - its prime directive - shoot straight and true and nature will merge the bullet and target in an unholy and instantaneous consummation.

So I own no rifles. I think a shotgun is good for panic work, but the handgun is a precision tool and an extension of my very flesh when hold and point and pull I do. I will always have a fondness for the Browning, but my tastes tend to quality and I prefer the Glock model 27 to any other. Big assed .40 rounds and an optional barrel that shoots 9mm on the same frame. Been years since I held a six-shooter - an old S & W Model 29 44 mag stainless with an eight inch barrel, but I felt like a fool whenever I held it. I like the S & W model 66 .357, but the last one I shot had a 2.5" barrel and was more suited to close in work and proved to be severely myopic beyond 30 feet.

Maybe its the muzzle velocity, but those Glocks shoot straight and will never jam. The barrel tilts up in mid recoil to accept the new round rather than the cutout on the inside bottom of the barrels on most other automatics. This greatly reduces friction while chambering and is quicker than most guns of its type.

Handguns dont kill people.

Bill Clinton does to get a few more points in the polls.

Isnt he for handgun control? Awfully loose with the cruise missiles on innocent folks to be worried about curtailing our rights in this manner, yes? Anyway, I had to respond to the question of exaggeration. And I only lied twice.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:15 - ID#254321)
G'Nite all, upover and downunder!
Now we are past the turning point. WJC is in for a boatload of bad news next week -- and market turmoil for the rest of us.
My guess is that the market traders will benefit the most, with gold equity longs doing a good second best.
We do need to beware the gold bug tsunami crashing with the rest of the equity markets, but I think the odds of an outright crash are unlikely -- for now. But -- if the US markets turndown, the South American markets are likely to turndown even faster.
We will all be eagerly awaiting rhody's comments about gold lease rates. Does make sense that they would drop first before a big gold rally in a perverse way, given how much this precious metal is hated by the fiat currency crowd.
Going to our little lake house to see if we can keep our 17' runabout from sinking before the water rises again in the fall -- see you all later! Still haven't installed that on-demand bilge pump. About time.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:29 - ID#290172)
Things are happening...

I have, over the past months, spent a bit of time at the BOJ site. Never caught the smallest glimmer of anything vaguely gold-colored. Imagine my astonishment tonight, when a "new" report jumped in front of my eyes. Take a look. SOMETHINGS UP!

BOJ September 18, 1998

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:40 - ID#280214)
It's after midnight & Kitco is still slow! Let's minimize use during peak time
Casual lurkers & posters - please put off Kitco until after midnight when catching up is faster. I try to minimize my online time during peak hours to help my Internet provider who has unlimited time for a flat rate. We should do the same for our host here: Bart and Kitco.

I'd like to post this during the 10:00 to 17:59 slots when most will see it but I likely won't be able to get on. So those of you who really have to and who can - please add this advise as a P.S. to your regular post.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:40 - ID#290172)
International Liquidity, 1998--Russia


SDR reserves went from Jan 1.1|Feb 2.9|Mar 3.1|Apr 3.2|May 3.3

To June 253.2 !!!!!!!!!!

Gold reserves also increased

P.S. Re--viewing Japan's gold hoard--keep in mind that the gold reserves are, according to IMF, 'valued/held' in 1 ounce = 35 SDR and THEN converted into the reporting currency ( in this case yen )

Who Cares?
(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:50 - ID#242328)
Clinton Burned Toast - A Tidal Wave Has Started
For those of you who care, the past two days have witnessed an
unbelievable number of allegations against the President. I'm going
to do a quick synopsis -

Clinton accused of rape and beating in 1978, introduced in Paula
Jones appeal.

New Commerce Department memo implicates DNC as using
trade missions to Russia to raise campaign money.

Clinton implicated in new book - HIV+ blood was illegally shipped
to Canada from Arkansas prisons while he was governor. Bribes

Actress now claims that she feared telling truth about Clinton affair,
Clinton "is dangerous".

Jiang in China worried that "private pledges" by Clinton won't be

Hundreds picket Clinton in Cincinnati.

Venezuelan drug lord make illegal campaign donations to Clinton

U.S. suspected of rigged nerve gas results in Iraq.

FBI files illegally used by Clinton administration against government

Congress votes to recind Clinton decision that shifted export
control policies from State to Commerce department.

Sen. McCain concerned over appearance of impropriety of
technology sales to China through Commerce department.

Clinton legal define fund donors want their money back.

The bulk of these articles are in the alt.current-events.clinton.whitewater

(Sat Sep 19 1998 00:53 - ID#271404)
RJ (9/17 --- 21:57)

Your Ruskie average gold holdings in $$.

Troy oz. are 12 oz. / ( non-metric ) lb. --- not 16.

Metric Tons are 2,200 ?? / ton. --- not 2,000.

Agree, this arithmetic would not alter your conclusions materially.

Who Cares?
(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:06 - ID#242328)
SDR - BOJ - Gold holdings
Japan purchased a large quantity of gold awhile back. Two years?
Maybe three or four.

Anyway, SDR's post was worth the entire night reading.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:12 - ID#255151)
Early Weekend Commentary

1 ) The Kitco Gold arrived today. Gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling. 2 ) Maxine Waters and Barney Frank are spittin' mad about the release of the Clinton tapes. Also gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling. 3 ) SDR-- Keep us posted on the Japan-Gold story. Will look myself for other news on this. Hopefully, from unimpeachable sources!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:16 - ID#271404)

The Ted Spread ( Spread T-Bills - Eurodollars ) suggests no significant
market concern in the international banking system, despite the dire
prognostications of gloomster market seers of late.

Bullish for the stock market.

The Value Line Stock Index ( arithemetic ) shows bottoming charateristics ( to me ) . Bullish.

I assume a DOW low of 7400 for now, until proven otherwise.

My optimistic projection is for new stock market highs within the next 3-4 months. Then a collapse.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:16 - ID#271404)

The Ted Spread ( Spread T-Bills - Eurodollars ) suggests no significant
market concern in the international banking system, despite the dire
prognostications of gloomster market seers of late.

Bullish for the stock market.

The Value Line Stock Index ( arithemetic ) shows bottoming charateristics ( to me ) . Bullish.

I assume a DOW low of 7400 for now, until proven otherwise.

My optimistic projection is for new stock market highs within the next 3-4 months. Then a collapse.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:20 - ID#410215)
..... Kip .....

Metric ton = 1 million grams
Troy ounce is 32.15 grams.
1 million grams = 31,104 troy ounces
Or about $12.4 million per ton

Rather than the generous $12.8 million I used.

My argument was based on 32000 ozers per ton. I tend to round the numbers against my argument because there is so much room to pad and it make me look generous in my calculations, which indeed I have been. I also agree that it does not change the figure substantially, but is does change them, and for the worse for gold. I didnt feel like getting into conversion and troy weight. The argument stands true. Thanks though, I knew someone would ask about troy weight.

Righty O

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:27 - ID#153120)
New Y2K problem revieled
Here is a new Y2K problem that no one is talking about

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:32 - ID#252150)
JTF@The Lunatic Asylum--more & more of less & less
& less & less of more & more.

You said "Some people want more & more of less & less". That's so true, as the extremely wealthy keep increasing their share of the shrinking GDP while many families work 2 or more jobs & still can't make it.

OTOH--Many millions of people around the world are going hungry & indeed starving as they are receiving less & less of the agricultural crops, even though there are incredible surpluses world wide.

John Disney
(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:33 - ID#24135)
RRS is key to Rangy
To All
Everybody seems to wants to value Rangy..
Here is my best shot
format stock, shares held, price, totvalue

dbn p , 0.6466, 18.6,12.03
b op,2.201,1.7, 3.74
Benguela,0.075, 1.65,0.12
other assets,146.26
total, 236.50

total shares = 41.38

NAV= 5.72
price = 4

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:37 - ID#41338)
Squirrel Has An Excellent Point
I'm afraid that if this slow down persists during peak hours it will anoy those who's posts we all want to read to a point where they will eventually give up trying to post.
That is one reason why I have now gone to the graveyard shift myself. The other reason is I simply cannot get on this site during peak hours and when I do, the site is so slow it is not worth the while to wait for the retrieval of the message portion of the posts.
The alternative is that all those gold bugs who have made some serious dough lately from the benifits received from this site make a contribution to Bart for some upgrades. ( WHICH IS FULLY DEDUCTIBLBE FOR TAX PURPOSES )



If this activity of this site lately is any indication of the renewed interest in gold, surely the gold bull must be on.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:38 - ID#218379)
RJ (--- 9/18 --- 01:20)

Class act rebuttal.

I assume the details you stipulate are accurate.

Details are very important. I know, having learnt and am learning.

The largest bullion dealer in the world??? Come now!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:50 - ID#257312)

The annual Burgenstock meeting of financial bigshots was last weekend. Here is a list of the speakers. Bet they could tell an interesting tale.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 01:55 - ID#219363)
Random Thoughts
So I was sitting there waiting for the movie to start and this kid sitting behind me keeps drawing on the movie screen with a laser pointer and I think "Yeah, great", and this other kid is crying on the left side of the theatre. It wasn't like any laser pointer I've ever seen, because it had some kind of lens that made a dollar sign show up on the movie screen. I hear him say to the girl beside him "It has other ones, one that does a smiley face", and I'm thinking I don't want to see a smiley face on the screen, nor do I want to see the flashing light bouncing across the back of peoples heads either. My woman hugs on my arm and says she thinks this is going to be a good movie, and I'm like "What's it about ?", and she says it's about two cops who try to save a little girl and get in trouble with the department, and I say "Hmm, sounds original", and she doesn't get it, but she's cute anyway so it doesn't really bother me. The dollar sign on the movie screen from the laser pointer burns into my mind and irritates me. I start thinking about the currency trade and she leans over and whispers that "they've made those lasers illegal in Virginia Beach because they say that when one shines in your eye it's brighter than the sun", and I smile and say "Yeah". So we sit there and watch the movie, Jackie Chan, which was funny because Jackie Chan is funny, and that Chris guy too, except it is indeed the same story I saw last time on another movie, or was it the time before that. And I think about that Poe story with the swinging pendulum blade and think I'd rather see that on the screen, but that it probably wouldn't transfer into the movies very well. Maybe the other Poe story, the one with the guy getting bricked up in somebodies basement, that might do okay, gothic is nifty. There was that one story, Pulp Fiction, I think, where those guys ended up in some redneck store owner's basement, kind of the 90's version of Poe except a lot lamer. But anyway. We go for a ride afterwards and I stop to fix up the woman's car, you know the drill, oil, gas, windows. I buy one of those little calling card things so she can stick it in the glove box in case anything ever goes wrong. Gas is cheap. Very cheap. Almost as cheap as it was when I was young, but not that cheap. So maybe deflation is just a time machine backwards for the US dollar. I like strong dollars, makes me feel like it's actually worth something. Who knows, maybe the CPI can go negative even. I hate washing bugs off the window but I do it anyway. Then we get home and I try to ignore whatever is on the showtime channel that we're getting free for the weekend, but it's hard to ignore the call now, call now, call before it's too late message. I'd much rather be reading, but she hates when I go off by myself, but I do it anyway. The Barron's investment book, the big black cover one, it's really nifty. Talks about precious metals even, calls them a risky investment. That registers as odd for some reason, especially after reading about the safety of bonds moments earlier. And I start thinking about how many times the market is going to have to teach the American public the hard way, like a bad cop movie, the story just comes back again and again and again, but some people never can get enough of it.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 02:03 - ID#218379)
Gold /Silver -- Investment Strategies ???

Price patterns, and sentiment indicators, indicate ( to me ) major long term lows are now in place for gold and silver.

Bottom picking is hazardous as many of us know.

Assuming the lows are in place, buying dips, with protective stop sell orders, is OK strategy.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 02:15 - ID#65118)
Sent them a note of encouragement about thier gold holdings. Asked that they consider buying some more. Envy, your last post read like a book!
A Joe Friday book...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 02:55 - ID#219363)
Thanks, I think I'll call it "Joe 6-pak on Friday" *grin*.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 03:10 - ID#386245)
Envy and RJ/Writer's night on Kitco
Good stuff guys.
RJ--Army Intelligence. Is that an oxymoron or a conundrum? Or does that qualify as the two lies?

Envy--I love Poe as well. You'd make a good Robert Mitchum style screenwriter.

Steve in TO
(Sat Sep 19 1998 03:30 - ID#287337)
Rolly - the Kitco slowdown . . .
we've been seeing the last couple of days is unprecedented, in my experience. There must be a surge of hits by newbies, probably sent here by the search engines. I think we're seeing the very first hints of something that will burst out into the open in a little while- a change of sentiment toward gold.

Steve Kaplan uses the ebb and flow of hits to his site as an indicator of interest in gold.

Bart- you have a 'goldmine' of information on your server if you have the tech skills to mine it. Remember that your www server can log the address of every hit that comes in- and that address contains country information. It would be very interesting to know the relative proportions of where these new hits are coming from. Are they from N. America, Japan, SE Asia- Europe? I'm sure some people would be interested in buying such information.

Sure, not being able to get onto Kitco is an annoyance- but look at the positive side, guys ( & gals : ) we're privileged to have a glimpse of something developing 'under the radar' that could make us a lot of money while the poobahs in their Wall Street offices are oblivious.

- Steve

(Sat Sep 19 1998 03:32 - ID#257312)
Mountie--Numismatic Value Question

There were 30,000 Mounties minted. As of about 2 weeks ago, there were 22,500 still in existence. The Canadian Royal Mint melts the Mounties when they are sold back. So, the question is this-- Will the Mountie have any Numismatic value due to scarcity and uniqueness of design?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 03:34 - ID#257312)
Mountie--Numismatic Value Question

There were 30,000 Mounties minted. As of about 2 weeks ago, there were 22,500 still in existence. The Canadian Royal Mint melts the Mounties when they are sold back. So, the question is this-- Will the Mountie have any Numismatic value due to scarcity and uniqueness of design?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 04:01 - ID#386245)
G'day Auric
There is lots of circumstantial evidence that the tide is changing for goldbugs. It will be nice to have it coming in for a few years. The POG started going up in most currencies earlier this year. Coin dealers around the world are reporting trouble with supply. I've got a good mate who used to get a call from his gold coin dealer every month. The dealer unloaded all his worthless scrap metal on this guy at spot + 3-5% -- for mint coins in fancy wooden display boxes and limited collector numbers. My very good mate hasn't heard from his dealer in about 3 months. Strange, eh?? That worthless scrap bought at ridiculous prices may just turn out to be El Dorado!! Sure beats the plastic fiat the gov't pawns off on us. My mate is doing his best to buy back the 167 tonnes his gov't, in its wisdom, sold. Only about 166.99 tonnes to go.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 04:14 - ID#26793)
Congress postpones regulation of derivitaves until 1999

(Sat Sep 19 1998 04:23 - ID#26793)
A sign that Japan has been more active in the gold market than before.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 04:46 - ID#240199)
From freezing Melbourne
Your good mate should get a Gold Medal like the rest of the Australian Commonwealth games team currently sweeping the pool in Kuala Lumpar.

I swear that everyone who sees the gold pour in Ballarat becomes a gold bug. What a great show. Now, I only have one week of kitco to catch up and I see a whole bunch of new handles.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 05:02 - ID#240199)
Oh, say can you "C"?

Ain't nothing sacred? low tech tupping crayon makes way for high tech watchamacallit. Thanks for tech update, feeling more and more like old Ned Ludd. BTW have thought that man's simplest invention, the door, is likely to fail in large numbers come Y2K, when all those magic eye thingmajigs dont work if the power goes off. That's what I call progress.

Have spoken with several computer types here, ( Melbourne & Sydney ) involved in finance and Y2K programming for banks and insurance companies, noone seems to think Y2K is a problem at all. Any the reaction is that Y2K problems are of the nature of Urban Myths and Popular Panics.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 05:15 - ID#386245)
Hey Auracious
Oz turned on its worst weather for you. Isn't Ballarat great?? Will expect a full report on your return. Go and see C. Kent. You won't regret it. You still there??

(Sat Sep 19 1998 05:53 - ID#240199)
is it a bird? is it a plane? no! it's Nick at Carribineeri
Candabeera, just had a spot of dinner..
C Kent, As in Superman?
Yup, am still in Melbourne and will be for a day or two. Did not realise I could post as self in ANOTHER country with ANOTHER computer.....
Ballarat is amazing, perhaps the best tourist trap in dis sweet gold world...and, as a gold bug, I felt as happy as a pig in shit....spent some time talking to the gold pourer and stamper. He told me many stories, and fortunately I was able to tell him one or two too.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 06:37 - ID#411440)
@ JTF: Thanks for your post of last night re EURO scenarios.
I agree that given world political and economic conditions, it is
difficult to envision a situation in which gold would be a poor
investment right now. I am still hesitating in purchasing gold
equities, but coin/bullion is relatively safe unless we go into
a massive deflation, and I think the Fed would inflate like mad
to head that off. So even a deflation would be good for gold.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 06:40 - ID#403335)
RJ The Shootist
I really enjoyed your 00:07 response. You should be writing humorous novels instead of weekly PM commentary.

In discussing confrontational situations, my karate teacher once said: talk your way out, walk your walk out, if all else fails - fight your way out. If someone is that far away, I figure he isnt a threat, so I never tried my lumbering .45 at those distances.

I also liked your comment about the oneness with your pistol. Sounds like something from Caddyshack. Should maybe be subtitled Zen and The Art of Handgunning.

Entertaining read. Thanks.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 06:46 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: I agree, the CB manipulation of lease rates downward
to induce the short selling ( gold carry ) manipulation to depress
the POG exactly parallels ( but in the inverse ) the Japanese
strategy of lowering interest rates to .25% in order to stimulate
consumer borrowing in order to stimulate the Japanese economy up.
I considered mentioning this in last night's post but parallel
strategies for inverse goals was a bit abstract.

Now to do a little work on lease rates..........

(Sat Sep 19 1998 06:48 - ID#240199)
Golden chickens ---finger-licken---Rooser Bonds

Thanks for your Lease rates analyses over past months. You have managed to teach this slow learner the essentials of this devilish trade. I have also read that several European Banks encourage their "High Net Worth" clients who hold gold to Lease their gold out too. I wonder when/if/how these leased-out gold chickens are gonna come home to roost?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 19 1998 07:10 - ID#345321)
During the slowdown last night did any of you.............
try the backup page? Did it work?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 19 1998 07:18 - ID#345321)
From the BBC World News...World Economy going into depression.......

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 19 1998 07:28 - ID#345321)
Brazil trying to be brave in the face of disaster.............
Cardoso says Brazil would turn to IMF
if needed

RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 18 ( Reuters ) - President Fernando
Henrique Cardoso said on Friday that Brazil would appeal to the
International Monetary Fund ``when and if'' it became necessary
to protect the country's battered currency.

With an election less than a month away, Brazilian officials have been carefully side-stepping mention
of the politically sensitive issue of accepting IMF help. They have been saying Brazil is in contact
with international financing agencies about crisis prevention rather than rescue plans.

Brazil has been spiralling into economic crisis as investors, panicked after Russia's devaluation, have
been pulling out of emerging markets in droves.

Dollar flight from Brazil was averaging $1.5 billion a day last week, although it had slowed to a
trickle by Thursday as talk of an international aid package intensified. Many analysts in Brazil say
that outside cash is essential to the defence of the real currency, but Cardoso would like to avoid
appearing in need of the IMF.

But when pressed by reporters Friday, Cardoso conceded that it was better to have a cushion of
international funds available to help protect the real.

``The country is going to appeal to the Fund when and if it is needed,'' Cardoso said after meeting
local leaders on a campaign trip to the Amazonas region.

Brazilians harbour painful memories of how the IMF intervened to help Brazil after Mexico declared
a debt moratorium in 1982.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 07:30 - ID#413109)
Good work
Rhody, I see you're not just a prospector carrying a rock.
Enjoying your take on lease rates and their significance
in the way golds behave.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 07:59 - ID#350194)
@Reify and Rhody
Just woke up and see that Rhody ( as usual ) is up early on Sat. morning and Reify is puttering away his Sat. noon in front of the 'puter instead of putting his way around the course. One of these lovely fall days I will have to find time to head up country with you, Rhody, and saw some lumber. Maybe we can even do a little 'hounding while we're at it.
Rhody, one question to benefit Reify, myself and ALL. Do you believe that the change in lease rates will give enough warning time to load up?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:02 - ID#93241)
ITAA Y2K update
ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
September 18, 1998 Volume 3, No. 34

Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA

Bob Cohen, Editor

Read in over 70 countries around the world

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. To create a subscription to this free publication, please visit ITAA on the web at To cancel an existing subscription, visit

ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc., and Y2Kplus

Investment Funds Draw Y2K Oversight
Attention to the Y2K preparedness of investment advisors and mutual funds is expanding to include the Y2K worthiness of the investment decisions being made. A hearing of the Senate's Special Y2K Committee in Washington this week, titled "The Year 2000 Technology Problem: Pensions and Mutual Funds," drew a small mountain of testimony from federal officials, association executives, pension fund managers, and mutual fund top brass.

Laura Unger, Commissioner, Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) , said that her agency's discussions with industry are producing a growing awareness of Y2K as investment criteria. "In discussions with major fund complexes, we have learned that their investment advisers are increasingly considering companies' Year 2000 compliance when they evaluate the merits of the particular companies as potential investments." Unger said that one major fund complex routinely asks prospective portfolio companies about their Y2K readiness. The assessment includes questions about the priority assigned to the repair task, assets committed, current status and third party risks. A second, she said, is reviewing publicly available information about particular companies' readiness and conducting on-site visits.

"We believe that this kind of Year 2000 due diligence is, or will become, typical of the investment decision-making process used by many funds' investment advisers," she said. Unger said the SEC staff has recommended making this type of Y2K investment decision criteria a standard feature of reporting requirements for fund advisers.

Alan Lebowitz, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Program Operations, with the Department of Labor's Pension and Welfare Benefits Administration said Y2K readiness is also an issue for plan fiduciaries, both in terms of selecting investments and assessing current portfolios. "because information regarding Year 2000 compliance may be necessary to make an informed investment decision, participants and beneficiaries in 401 ( k ) plans who have responsibility for directing their investments, like plan fiduciaries, should consider Year 2000 issues when determining how to invest their retirement assets," Lebowitz said.

Meanwhile, the mutual fund industry, represented by Investment Company Institute President Matthew Fink, clearly sought to reassure Congress that mutual fund industry "participants" are on the case. "To the extent that the industry experiences any Y2K-related problems, the consequences to fund shareholders of such problems most likely would be in the nature of delayed statements or other temporary administrative glitches," he noted. "It would be most unfortunate if investors and savers, including mutual fund shareholders, became fearful that their money could disappear as a result of Y2K." Fink indicated it may become appropriate for Congress and regulators to send investors and savers a reassuring message "so as to avoid any unnecessary panic."

While Fink said mutual fund investment advisers are including Y2K as part of their normal investment decision research process, it is important that such individuals retain the discretion to evaluate this factor "in a manner and to the extent that it deems appropriate in the particular circumstancesThis is precisely what shareholderspay the adviser to do on their behalf," Fink said.

The industry's case, however, may be far from closed. Eugene F. Maloney, executive vice president and corporate counsel of Federated Investors, a mutual fund company controlling assets of $150 billion, testified that he became involved with the Y2K issue this past May, at which point "it was clear that the analyst community had not focused on the issue of business risk as it relates to Y2K and were content with the vague statements made by issuers as to expenses incurred to date and their self-evaluation of their Y2K readiness. I expect this to change dramatically"

Maloney related that his firm's efforts to contact securities issuers has met with mixed results. Fewer than one in four responded to the firm's letter writing campaign. Of those that did respond, quality has been very uneven. More mail is on its way, Maloney indicated. Federated Investors has opened a Y2K file on every security it owns and analysts are tracking issuer readiness. According to the executive, each of the company's investment areas has a Y2K coordinator, and all Y2K activities to determine readiness or increase understanding are documented in a central file.

Maloney also indicated that Y2K is not the "special circumstance" that would cause trustees to retrench from diversified positions. "No such insight has become apparent to us which would countenance a fiduciary abandoning a strategy of broad diversification as a way to successfully counter any issuer risk presented by Y2K," he said. In response to predictions of a "technology winter," Maloney said, "While some level of turmoil is to be expected, some people say it will be temporary in nature. No credible source has predicated a permanent impairment in the value of the securities of publicly traded companies"

Senate Committee Advances Y2K Bill
The Senate Judiciary Committee has passed The Year 2000 Information and Readiness Disclosure Act, S. 2392, a bill to get companies talking publicly about their Y2K issues. The bill provides limited liability protection for a limited time for specific types of Y2K information, but not liability protection for Y2K related failures. Sponsored by Sens. Hatch, Leahy, Bennett and Kyl, this son of the original Good Samaritan legislation promotes company-to-company information sharing while maintaining the rights of consumers.

The bill provides liability protection for allegedly incorrect statements and the persons making them, unless the plaintiff can provide "clear and convincing evidence" that the information was material; known to be false, inaccurate or misleading; provided with the intent to deceive; or with a reckless disregard to the statement's accuracy. The bill would also protect allegedly inaccurate defamatory or disparaging statements unless shown by clear and convincing evidence that the information provided was done so either falsely or recklessly.

Specific types of information included in the measure are oral or written statements, but not SEC or bank regulatory filings or statements made pursuant to the sale of securities. The bill creates a category called "Year 2000 Readiness Disclosure Statements." These statements must be clearly labeled as such and pertain to products or services. The measure also extends the definition of "Year 2000 Processing," including both hardware and software and taking into account dates other than January 1, 2000.

Other facets of the bill are antitrust protections ( except in the case of boycott or price fixing ) , protection of information provided to the government, encouragement for the use of websites to post Y2K notifications, and establishment of a national Y2K clearinghouse. The measure would allow companies to designate previous statements ( made as far back as January 1, 1996 ) as "Year 2000 Readiness Disclosure Statements" by providing notice to statement recipients within 45 days of bill enactment and posting such notice on their Y2K websites.

The bill is expected to be voted by the full Senate soon and then be sent for quick passage in the House and signed by the President before Congress adjourns.

Speaker Says Supply Chain Merits Separate Y2K Review
For even the most diligent remediators, the Year 2000 issue may be starting to look like that pink rabbit on television. Going and going. ( For the moment, forget about this bunny's date with the time barrier waiting just 469 days down the road ) . As companies do more to address the situation, new layers are discovered that need addressing. That point became clear this week at an SPG Y2K trade show in Los Angeles, where supply chain management was an important topic of discussion.

David Hurst, Data Dimensions Director of Non-IT Issues, led a thought-provoking exploration into navigating this parallel universe. For many companies, managing the supply chain response to the Year 2000 is essentially a letter writing campaign to any and all suppliers and vendors ever lucky enough to present a bill. Many of these letters are never answered.

Hurst offered what appears to be a more comprehensive and productive approach.

Long standing and strategic business relations, not voluminous Y2K inquiries, are the ties which bind companies together, making even the largest corporate giants seem like little more than the sum of their external partners. Hurst offered as examples a hamburger colossus, straddling the globe with 17,000 restaurant franchises in 100 countries, with 130 distribution centers, 4000 suppliers, 500 vendors of other types, and 80 other business partners. A pharmaceutical firm with dependencies on both sole suppliers and suppliers in Third World locations. And a specialty fashion retailer with one-of-a-kind merchandise coming from 2000 one-of-a-kind small and mid-size enterprises.

Is the Y2K problem a matter of supplier heal thyself? Maybe yes and no. In answering the question, companies need to figure out exactly which entities-beyond key suppliers--should be included in the web of critical interdependencies. Many companies may operate only through franchisees and dealer agents. Distributors may need to be on the list. Also business partners like banks and advertising agencies. And key outsourcing providers too, such as payroll processors, check printers, coupon redemption centers or co-packers.

Hurst says whether or not these entities are getting ready for the Year 2000, cutting these links from the corporate chain may be virtually impossible. For instance, he noted that some companies may be highly leveraged on customers for their revenue stream. So the readiness of key customers to cope could be critical.

Cross dependencies also snarl the ability of firms to just cut and run from date challenged partners. A supplier may be a customer too. A partner could be a shareholder. Captive providers-those that have forsaken all others to serve a single master--may contend that an implied obligation exists and cry foul if the relationship ends. And then there is the matter of existing business contracts, the paper cement that keeps supplier relationships in place. Hurst said even those firms that have flagged the Y2K folly of their suppliers must still prepare the proper legal groundwork before they undertake anticipatory breach of contract actions.

Hurst says a Year 2000 program office should distinguish between IT projects and business relationship management, a non-IT set of functions. This corporate chain gang could include professionals with expertise in business relationship management ( sales people, buyers and procurement specialists ) , corporate communications, contracts administration, financial management, project scheduling and the like.

The work of this group is in many ways similar to that performed on the IT side of the program office. Hurst says the tasks include building an inventory of partners and associating business functions with the products or services they provide. He says people tend to get hung up on protecting their favorite products, perhaps losing perspective on just how important such products are to the lifeblood of the company. Some products or services may not even be technology-based, like custodial services. This doesn't necessarily eliminate them from interest, however. The question for all is both how they will function within the enterprise and as independent businesses.

To answer the question, the business relationship management team builds a list ranking suppliers by order of importance and rates them in terms of the severity of the disruption anticipated and how quickly any breakdowns will be felt.

Putting the strategy together could also include deciding how to communicate with suppliers ( Hurst says top tier suppliers deserve a face to face meeting ) , whether legal exposures and recoveries apply, on-going vendor status, and if and how the enterprise plans to test products or services. Supplier communication scales up from general awareness letters to more detailed exchanges, spelling out in technical terms exactly what is expected. Contract reviews identify supplier responsibilities by determining what and how contracts may still apply ( some may be out of date, void, or expire prior to the Year 2000 ) . Status checking could include factors like an analysis of the supplier's capacity to meet production quotas, financial or legal analysis, risk and records management.

Hurst says companies should also decide to what extent they may be willing to help struggling suppliers. He offered the example of a food manufacturer with a product made by a third party experiencing heavy duty Y2K problems. Hurst said that even though helping the supplier would also help competitors offering the same product, the food manufacturer decided to ride to the rescue because the product line was too important to its own business and reputation.

This kind of company to company Y2K aid package could include awareness materials, help desk, on site support, repair cost financing, or process help.

SEC Guidance May Be Litigation Guidebook
The Securities and Exchange Commission has sent a Y2K wakeup call to corporate boardrooms, and the message may finally be getting through. Kenneth Freeling, who spoke about officers and directors liability at a conference this week in Los Angeles, says the SEC guidance for Y2K disclosure by public companies issued last August puts corporate boards between "a rock and a hard place."

Freeling is an attorney with the New York-based firm of Kaye, Scholer, Fierman, Hays & Handler. "Inadequate disclosure," he says, "could lead to a securities class action lawsuit. But companies who are in bad shape and do disclose may be opening themselves up to charges of mismanagement and shareholder derivative suits."

Freeling says that SEC guidance is normally general in nature, providing a framework on the type of information expected and allowing public companies to make their own interpretations. The Y2K guidance is explicit. And that could be a problem for many companies.

"[The guidance] is a guidebook to plaintiffs' lawyers," Freeling says. "If public companies don't satisfy it, you have almost a prima facie case if the company experiences material losses."

The agency's break with the past reflects current realities. "The SEC is trying to say to public companies that they view the Year 2000 as a universal problem of enormous magnitude," Freeling noted. In such a situation, "specific and detailed disclosure" is required.

Perhaps so. But that has not made the disclosure pill less apt to stick in the corporate craw. Freeling says his clients look at him "open mouthed" when he explains the new requirements. And with good reason. The SEC statement, Freeling says, provides "extraordinary opportunities for plaintiffs' lawyers."

When they come, Freeling says the suits will fall into two broad classes. In the first wave, shareholder derivative suits, will claim broad mismanagement if forward looking statements make losses seem likely.

The 1995 Securities Reform Act may provide a modest statutory safe harbor to corporate boards in such cases, provided that disclosures meet the SEC requirements and do not constitute boilerplate responses.

After the Y2K shoe drops and losses are realized, the second wave will hit, Freeling says. In these securities class action suits, shareholders will conclude that corporate Y2K disclosures have been "less fulsome" than SEC requirements, Freeling suggests. Such disclosures may also include material misstatements or omissions of fact.

Freeling estimates that half of Y2K litigation will fall into one of these two categories. "The SEC statement makes companies sitting ducks for this kind of litigation," he says. But not lucky ducks.

"Juries won't be sympathetic," Freeling predicts. He says that these are hindsight cases, where the turmoil and pressure of managing a competitive business is ignored and plaintiffs' attorneys bring a "laser focus to a small series of events." Out the courtroom window go any acknowledgement of past corporate successes or positive performance, replaced in the juror's mind by the idea that Y2K remediation and nothing else should have been the work of the enterprise.

Such cases, Freeling says, are difficult to defend-the reason why most are settled prior to trial. Meanwhile, corporate boards relying on officers and directors insurance policies to pay such settlements may want to have a heart to heart with their insurance companies. And as with all things Y2K, sooner is better than later.

Media Watch
This week's issue of the Economist features an in-depth series of articles on the Y2K issue by Frances Cairncross, author of The Death of Distance. Check it out on the web at

Closer to Home
This week ITAA announced that EBS Dealing Resources, Inc. has received ITAA*2000 certification. ITAA*2000 is the industry's century date change certification program. The program examines processes and methods used by companies to perform their Year 2000 software conversions. EBS Dealing Resources, Inc. participated in a rigorous evaluation of its approach to date conversion, with extensive analysis in eleven discrete process areas deemed necessary to a successful Year 2000 conversion.

ITAA Y2K Information Center

Solution Providers Directory

ITAA*2000 Certification Program

Outlook Archive

Legislative and Litigation Table


Vendor/User Status Questionnaires


(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:08 - ID#252391)
To Bart, Steve in TO and SDRer
First, Bart, I think it would be helpful to all if you were to make a comment on the current state of KITCO and the feasibility of implementing and using for your own gain and our general knowledge some of Steve's ideas.

As SDRer has found something new on the Bank of Japan's Balance Sheet ( lots of Gold, ) should the slow down on Kitco really be as a result of increase visitations, I agree with Steve that we are on the verge of something quite impressive unfolding.

There is still scant belief that gold can rise above $300 per oz or Silver above $5.25, yet gold coins are getting harder to procur and silver bags are going out at a premium. I personnaly think a grass roots ground swell has already begun. Because of the general scarcity of coins the demand is showing up there first.

Certain blue chip gold shares have put in pretty good bottoms and showsome pretty intense interest: such a NEM which is up almost 50% from its low. Homestake is creeping back toward its April highs. HGMCY is up 50% from its low - up on the year and above its 200 and 50 day moving averages. The price of gold may end up being the laggard as the public moves to coins and stocks under the cover of a steady gold price.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:29 - ID#222231)
To all Kitcoite junkies.
Read this and weep. Does this fit you?

to Not Thinking
( It's just for
fun )
( M/CA )
Sep 19 1998
3:16AM EDT

I was a lot like all of you: carefree, happy and
blissful. This was before my life took a tragic
turn, a turn which I sense many you are on the
verge of taking. There is no help for me,
unfortunately ( that's for sure ) , but perhaps my
story will prevent some of you from falling into
the abyss into which I have been thrown.

It started out innocently enough ( as it always
does ) . I began to think on-line, now and then,
just to loosen up. Inevitably, though, one
thought led to another, and soon I was more
than just a social thinker. I was thinking
everywhere. Then, I began to think alone; what
did I want to say on-line? What clever line could
I say to make the meaning come through?.
Off-line, I told myself I was doing it to relax,
even though I knew it wasn't true. On-line
thinking became more and more important to
me, and finally, I was thinking on-line all the

On the job I began to think what I was going to
say that night on-line. I knew that on-line
thinking and employment don't mix, but I
couldn't stop myself. I wanted to be really
cleaver when I went on-line. I began to avoid
friends at lunchtime so I could read Kafka and
Thoreau. Besides, I knew they wouldn't
understand. I would return to the office dizzied
and confused, asking, "What IS it exactly we
are doing here, on-line?".

By now, things weren't going so great at home,
either. One evening I turned off the TV, and
asked my wife "What is the meaning of
on-line?". She spent the night at her mother's.

I soon had a reputation as a heavy on-line
thinker. One day, the boss called me in and said
"Greg, I like you and it hurts me to say this, but
your on-line thinking has become a real
problem. If you don't stop on-line thinking on the
job, you'll have to find another job". This gave
me a lot to think about!

I came home early after my conversation with
the boss.
"Honey," I confessed, "I've been thinking
on-line". "I know you've been thinking on-line,"
she said, "and I want a divorce." "But honey,
surely it's not that serious! It's only four or five
hours a night. Besides I get along great with my
on-line buddies."

"It is serious", she said, her lower lip quivering.
"You think as much on-line as college
professors do in real life, and college professors
don't make much money. So if you keep thinking
like this on-line, we soon won't have any
money!" And she burts into tears. "That's a
faulty syllogism!" I said impatiently, and she
began to cry even harder.

I'd had enough. "I'm going to the library to get
outta here and go on-line in peace and quiet. At
least there I'll have some peace and quiet", I
snarled, and stomped out the door. I headed out
to the library in the mood for some Nitzche and
NPR on the radio; things that would make me
sound 'cool' on-line. I roared into the parking lot
and ran up to the big glass doors. They didn't
open. The library was closed!

To this day, I believe a higher power was
looking out for me that night. As I sank to the
ground, clawing at the unfeeling glass,
whimpering for Zarathrustra and a computer, a
poster caught my eye.

"Friend, is heavy thinking on-line ruining your
life?" it asked. You probably recognize that line.
It comes from the standard Thinkers
Anonymous poster. Which is why I am what I
am today: a recovering on-line thinker.

I never miss a OTA meeting ( on-line Thinkers
Anonymous ) . At each meeting we watch a
non-educational video; last week it was
"Porky's". Then we share experiences about
how we avoided going on-line and thinking
since the last meeting. I now have a new job
and things are a lot better at home. Life just
seems...easier, somehow, as soon as I stop
thinking on-line.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:31 - ID#254321)
Freezing Melbourne?
aurator: What gave you the opportunity to freeze Melbourne?

Seriously, you must be getting a kick with how fast our president's fortunes are fading -- ever since Aug 17. Now, his lawyers are trying to blame someone else for that brilliant idea of taping his testimony in front of Kenneth Starr's grand jury. Ha!

Apparently one of the lawyers insisted that KS erase the tape after same wayward grand juror saw it. KS responded that he would not erase 'evidence'. Even $500/hour lawyers can be outsmarted. Perhaps WJC had too many lawyers, and the quality of his advice suffered. The best thing that happened to him was Dick Morris, who is now feeding the other side.

And for the ultimate insult -- now I hear that some disillusioned Mericans actually want their money back for the Clinton defense fund.

My guess is that WJC is going to be in for alot of trouble -- he could very well swing from being one of our most popular presidents, to one of our least popular ones. It will be interesting to see how the comeback kid deals with this.

Personally, I doubt there is anything he can do at this point -- its like what the virgin said to the prostitute. 'Once it happens there is nothing you can do to get it back'.

In the past, WJC always had a continually larger population of voters to mesmerize with his words and political vote-getting savvy. Now he has no new population to fool.

Hope you can unfreeze Melbourne. When you're done, there are alot of eager Texans who will pay your way if you could 'freeze Texas' -- not too much, though.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:36 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney and Reify: Yes, I think gold lease rates will act as
a reliable precursor to the gold bull. But only if Bart will post them.
The only other source I have found for gold leases is the World Gold
Council Weekly Market Report. This only gives a weekly notice, and
this may not be enough warning. The pattern is that one month leases
move up through the 1% level a few weeks to a few months prior to the
gold spike. This has been the pattern in the past. But the present
situation is unprecedented because of the short overhang. Sept 4th one month lease rates were at 0.36% ( an all-time low ) . By Sept 15,
one month gold had risen to 0.60%. Much of this rise was in a few
days. I have seen lease rates change .6% in a morning.

I am speculating, but if gold begins to surge, exposed shorts may
use borrowed gold to cover initially. This will cause a spike in
lease rates before a huge spike develops in spot POG. This was the
pattern in the lease market for silver during the Buffett inspired
surge in POS. We can only hope Bart completes his Kitco site improvements in time to follow the whole picture of the pending gold
market crisis.

Perhaps a metal trader like RJ has access to an alternate site for
lease rate data.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:43 - ID#411440)
Mr Mick: As the article you posted implies, a depression or
deflation is not likely. We will get a depression only if the powers
that be allow it. The Fed will inflate to head off a depression, as
inflation is easier to control than deflation. Even Klinton has
called for a drop in interest rates. But they will wait till the
last second to do it. It will herald the end of the USD tyranny
of the world. Got Gold?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 08:57 - ID#240241)
73 page book "Portable Wealth" by Adam Starchild.
On page 36 "The Future of Gold", he states "However weak the U.S. dollar, unhinged from its gold backing, has been, that dollar still has set the pace in international trade, economics, & banking for the last several decades. But now the U.S. national debt exceeds $4 trillion, headed for $5 trillion, & 61 percent of all federal personal income taxes goes just to ay interest on that debt. Accumulated American international debt now surpasses an unprecedented $500 billion & is rising steadily, & many experts flatly state there is no way the U.S. economy can generate the kind of economic surplus necessary to service this debt. Meanwhile, domestic government attempts to reconcile the contradictory goals of short-term economic stimulation & the long-term reduction of the enormous federal debt. Sooner or later, America, & the world, must face the fact that the United States is insolvent, with all the attendant ramifications of that realization.
Based on history, we know that when inflation occurs investors fear the destruction of the purchasing power of their money; in deflation, they fear default on the part of the issuers of paper assets. In either situation, gold has no peers as an economic refuge.
With all the problems that lie ahead, it is almost inevitable that in the near future, certainly before the turn of the century, there will be a flight to quality money & liquidity--resulting in the re-emergence of gold as the only strong quasi-currency acceptable to all peoples & nations."

This was published over a year or 2 ago. Was wondering if anyone could
update the figures on U.S. national debt & the other figures he uses.
Also curious about any opinions on this.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:01 - ID#240241)
Forgot to post his web site if anyone interested in his books

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:13 - ID#329186)
to all: FT (by george parker) Comments O Y2K & PM Blair (alias Klinton lacky)
Saturdays FT
When tony Blair promised six months ago to create "an Army of 20,000 Bugbusters" to tackle the millenium computer timebomb it seemed the government had grasped the need for utgent action.
Announcing a 70M computer training program for this new crack team the piem ministersaid "By treating this as an emergency,we can make britain one of the worlds best prepared countries for the run up to the new millenium."
But yesterday it emmerged that mr Blairs Bigbusters would currently struggle to form a platoon let alone an army.So far the government has managed to train just 26 people out of a planned 20,000.
"These are early days "insisted the department of education and employment,apparently unconcerned that the new millenium looms less than 500 days away.A spokesman explained that although Mr blair announced the initiative in march, the project only started in july , and August was a holiday".
But there was some heartening news" We expect things to really pick up in the next couple of months " he added .
The rather belated burst of activity will embarass mr blair,who launched the initiative to train mainly young people to reprogram computers to ensure they recognise the 2000 date change.
John redwood,shadow trade secretary,said:"These results are laughable. Does the government realise the millenium is only 15 months away? Do they know how long it takes to train a skilled technician?"
Robin Guenier,director of independant campaign group task force 2000,called the bugbuster scheme "ill-conceived,badly administered and poorly-led.
my thoughts
Pm Blair was the "bloke" going to lecture the Europeans earlier this year and each time he opens his mouth shows his ignorance of the time scale involved..

Go gold & Silver

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:21 - ID#411440)
@ Oak: re your Starchild article. Your post has Starchild
stating that "Accumulted American debt now surpasses an unprecedented
$500 billion and is rising steadily." To what "debt" is Starchild
referring? Is this balance of payments? or is this exchange obligations?
Every Federal reseve note is a debit instrument, and foreign banks
and individuals now own half of all the money ever 'printed' by the
USG. This means that foreign interests have 7.5 trillion dollars,
held outside the United States. Each one of these dollars is a
debt owed by the United States economy to the foreign holder. If the
US dollar begins to slide relative to other currencies, these
7.5 trillion dollars are going to come flooding back to the United
States, and attempt to buy something. Perhaps most of these dollars
will attempt to buy services. The United States better hope so, because
that is what 80% of the US economy consists of. But if the 7.5 trillion
dollars tries to buy physical assets, like land, cars, forests, and
metals, do you have any idea what this will do the commodity prices
and inflation? Got Gold?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:22 - ID#156161)
Mr. Mick & Clinton's visit to Massachusetts
The backup site was available, but wasn't exactly

popping with speed and excitement.

Please humor me as I repost from there:

The President was in town to raise money for the Party.

Large crowds gathered to protest and were not shown on

on TV reports. Senator Kerry strongly backed the President,

and made all the TV reports.

Best sign of many in the crowd: "It's the felonies, stupid!"

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:24 - ID#329186)
to all in the UK
There is practically nothing in the UK pres on Gold ( thanks to bart and the Web we get well informed ) and very few Gold mutuals me in m & G and having glanced at the Augusr report. took "offence" to the reason for the fall in gold being blamed on central bank selling. I then e-mailed graham french the fund manager stating that I dissagreed with this pointing out that this was an illusion the central bankers wished to create,and where did he get this information from ? saying it worried me that he was copying what others said so far no comment ( holidays meetings etc ) resent a copy of my e-mail copied to company secretary also suggested he Visit sharefin's page and the links most of us visit.
If M & G address is perhaps a few others could send in a similar request get them worried or off their butts


(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:26 - ID#29048)
Follow the money
September 18, 1998

Net Outflows Are Recorded At Stock and Money Funds

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- In a rare move, mutual-fund investors pulled money out of both stock funds and money market funds in the latest week. Investors took a net $160 million out of stock funds and $2.82 billion out of money market funds in the week ended Wednesday, AMG Data Services, of Arcata, Calif., said.

While the stock fund outflow is tiny, it's unusual not only because stock and money market funds usually have enjoyed net inflows lately, but also because of the two sectors' inverse relationships.

When one of the two categories shows net outflows, the other commonly shows net inflows. The usual interpretation is that when investors get jittery about stock funds, they often park some assets in money market funds, and when they're confident about stock markets, they pull out of money funds to buy stock funds.

The only other week this year in which both stock funds and money market funds had net outflows was the one ended April 29.

Money market funds have been raking in cash since the Dow Jones industrial average began to drop in mid-July. In fact, this latest week ended a streak of six in which the funds attracted at least $4 billion. Last week's inflow was $6.26 billion, according to AMG. A year ago, though, money funds showed net outflows of $7.37 billion.

Stock funds have been on a bit more of a roller coaster, taking in net cash one week and losing net cash the next. The inflows have often corresponded with up weeks in the market, and the outflows with down weeks. Last week, stock funds pulled in a net $1.44 billion, according to AMG. In the same week last year, they drew a net $3.94 billion.

The stock market moved higher during the five trading days covered by the latest AMG report, but investors continue to smart from the gyrations that have swept the market lately. At its recent low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly 20% below its record high. A move through the 20% threshold would signify a bear market.

Taxable bond funds, meanwhile, continued to pull in new cash in the latest week, as they have all year, taking in a net $240 million. That was hardly distinguishable from last week's $251 million in net inflows. The more mercurial municipal bond funds had slim inflows of $7 million, according to AMG, which almost exactly reversed the $8 million outflow of the prior week. A year earlier, municipal bond funds pulled in $385 million.

AMG says the 5,924 stock funds it tracks had $2.09 trillion in assets as of Wednesday. The 1,557 money market funds it tracks had $1.26 trillion, the 3,045 taxable bond funds $709 billion and the 2,003 municipal bond funds $295 billion.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:28 - ID#240241)
To what debt he is referring to, I have no idea. I quoted him exactly word for word.

Thanks for the comment. You & others are why I stalk this site *grin*.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:34 - ID#147201)
JTF re 3 scenarios
These are a good preview and I think you are right. However, the first requires some intelligence on the part of the administration and I doubt if they have it. Really good work and I hope it works out.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:35 - ID#29048)
"A Fall Rise in Commodities"
September 21, 1998
A Fall Rise - That's what commodities could enjoy


A void in leadership. Not just political, in places like Washington and Moscow, but economic as well. That's what we have now. For as stocks have ceded their leadership role, bonds are not moving in, and commodities -- which have been moving up -- aren't ready to accept a new rank. But they may -- this fall.

Two things must occur before the major commodity index, the Bridge-CRB, bottoms: The dollar must weaken and harvest lows must be set in the grain

Commodities are waiting for the greenback to lose its safe-haven status. That already has begun. The dollar recently has fallen more than 6% against some major currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the German deutschemark. Even the beleaguered Japanese yen has staged an impressive rally; since hitting its low last month, it's up 12%. Because a decline in the dollar makes most commodities more affordable to the rest of the world, the Bridge-CRB index rose 5% during the same span.

Consider the flash of color in the precious-metals markets. In the past month, gold is up more than 7.5% from its lows; platinum is up more than 4% and silver has risen 8%.

In the energy sector, crude has gained almost 11% from its one-month low; gasoline is up 7.5%; heating oil, nearly 15%, and natural gas, over 30%. The list goes on in industrial commodities like cotton, up almost 6%, and copper, up 9%.

And while the dollar snapped back last week after its sudden sharp dip, weak fundamentals should drive it lower. Since the U.S. is a net debtor nation with a large and growing current-account deficit, we need to import foreign capital to fund our overspending. This was made easy in past years by a robust economy, a hot stock market, relatively high interest rates and a stable political system. And while our high interest rates remain attractive, the rest of the picture has become clouded.

Add the spreading Asian contagion to our crucial trading partners in Latin America, and it's easy to see why the buck is in trouble, especially as leveraged investors have been forced to sell dollars to meet margin calls on unprofitable positions elsewhere.

As for commodity prices, they will have another leg down before they bottom because the CRB is highly correlated to the grain markets during harvest time. Given that the U.S. is expected to harvest near record crops this year in corn, soybeans and wheat, the CRB probably won't bottom until harvest lows are reached in each of these important markets. The CRB's drop could rival its recent bottom on August 28, when the index
broke below 200 for the first time in more than 20 years.

Since then, however, commercial investors, those companies involved directly in the underlying markets, have moved to record net long positions in about 11 of the CRB's 17 components, including sugar. During the same time, speculative traders have reached record net short positions.

Typically, such extreme trading positions would signal traders to buy commodities themselves. "But these are not normal times," says Steve Briese, who tracks the net long and short positions of commercials and speculators in the commodities markets. He recommends that traders who have been short protect their profits, but "you should not go long because we've had such a huge bear market that, while we're close, I
expect a final washout."

Too, traders should note that just because a commercial determines fundamental value at a particular price for his business purposes, that doesn't mean prices have bottomed. For example, a commercial who locks in $2 corn may just be saying that he knows that he can make money at that price.

Bill O'Neill, the director of Merrill Lynch's futures department, is similarly cautious. "While we would not be bold enough at this point to say with certainty that the worst is over and that the cycle has bottomed, there is growing fundamental and technical evidence to indicate that this point is nearing."

As commodities shift into neutral and eventually into drive, hard-hit commodity currencies like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars will all benefit, too. For commodity consumers, "recent lows in many markets like aluminum may prove solid value to hedge buyers 12-18 months out," says O'Neill.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:45 - ID#430221)
About Kitco being sooooo sloooow
My husband mentioned that his experience with outher discussion groups is that when the group's site is connected to other sites that belong to some commercial enterprise, when there is a lot of activity on the other commercially oriented sites - lots of buying of the product for instance - then the discussion site slows down considerably or even shuts down completely. He's had this experience with a number of film/video oriented sites ( he's a film historian ) so perhaps this is much, or most, of the explanation - not that big brother is messing us up. After all big brother would have little reason to foul up sites about moview. That still leaves the problem of how Bart can get the thing working more reliably despite the aforementioned possibility. Thanks for trying, Bart.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:48 - ID#156161)
rhody @ 09:21
Your scenario seems to indicate a relatively short,

sharp depression followed by hyperinflation. I think

this is plausible, but Y2k will affect this unfolding

of events in unexpected ways.

Excuse me if you aren't the right person for this

question. How close to frost can you transplant


(Sat Sep 19 1998 09:57 - ID#257174)
Valuing gold independent of fiat currencies
For Goldilocks :

Here, as promised, are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the month of September so far:-

Date | Close | High | Low |

01 Sep | 69.08 | 69.22 | 68.72 |

02 Sep | 69.78 | 69.85 | 69.54 |

03 Sep | 69.70 | 69.89 | 68.27 |

04 Sep | 69.95 | 70.18 | 69.72 |

07 Sep | 70.07 | 70.22 | 69.86 |

08 Sep | 69.78 | 70.26 | 69.58 |

09 Sep | 70.10 | 70.19 | 69.68 |

10 Sep | 70.58 | 70.58 | 69.98 |

11 Sep | 70.51 | 71.31 | 70.25 |

14 Sep | 70.24 | 70.60 | 70.22 |

15 Sep | 69.80 | 70.52 | 69.77 |

16 Sep | 69.98 | 70.19 | 69.82 |

17 Sep | 70.05 | 70.21 | 69.12 |

18 Sep | 70.42 | 70.63 | 70.00 |

( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )

These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.

Note that the 4.2% rise in the Dollar price of gold ( from $279 to $291 ) so far this month is made up of a 1.9% rise in the True Value of Gold and a 2.3% fall in the value of the US dollar against all other currencies.

P.S. I could try to send a Lotus 123 file ( 34 KB ) with a chart of the Dabchick Gold Index over the last 16 years within the next hour if anyone wants it.............but I have to say I've never uploaded a file to the Internet before. I have read Bart's instructions carefully and would use Netscape Navigator 4.0 but if there are any additional tips on the best way to do it I would appreciate them. And in any case, I've also got a weekly candlestick chart of 3-month Gold Lease Rates from Jan 1996 on a Lotus 123 spreadsheet file waiting here, ready for you, Chas, so I'm going to have to jump in with both feet before long. Does Kitco support Lotus Spreadsheet files?


(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:02 - ID#290172)
( 1 ) JAPAN - Liberalization in the Banking and Financial Sectors

Manner of Operations
"One of the directions in developing new financial commodities is to
add benefits which include deposits and financial bonds with a
foreign exchange option and GOLD INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS."

FT Weekend 9/19~9/20
Frontpage: Japan's parties agree on formula to launch finance sector reform--"The agreement calls for the temporary nationalisation of the troubled Long Term Credit Bank of Japan and the establishment of an independent body, the Financial Revival Committee, to oversee the process. $97bn public fund to reapitalise weaks banks will be abolished and the finance ministry will be stripped of its powers over financial policy formation. ...general reflief that a deal had at last been reached."

COMMENT: ITN did a piece on Japan in last night's news. Wealthy, low unemployment ( lower than US ) and the comment that, POV-Japanese, things could be a lot worse...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:04 - ID#257174)
@Chas @Gold Lease Rates
I calculate the lease rates ( 1, 3, 6 and 12-month ) each day from data available in the Financial Times. ( Why does't everyone? )

I take the "Loco London Mean Gold Lending Rate ( vs US$ ) " ( the so-called Contango ) for each of the aforesaid time maturities from the equivalent Interest Rates which are given under "Dollar LIBOR BBA London" . This appears to be the method used by the World Gold Council, among others, so why not everyone? Although my figures are not exactly the same as the WGC ones ( which, incidentally appear to be for the week before last ) , my figures are within 0.2% of their out-of-date ones, and I get them up to 10 days before they mention them in their weekly commentary.

Thus the rates for last week, Monday 14th to Friday 18th Sept worked out as follows:

Period | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri,,,,,,,

1-Month | 0.53,,,,,,,0.57,,,,,,,,0.56,,,,,,,,,,0.61,,,,,,,,0.60

3-Month | 0.77,,,,,,,0.78,,,,,,,,0.79,,,,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.84

6-Month | 1.41,,,,,,,,1.41,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,1.39

12-Month| 1.64,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,,,1.69,,,,,,,,1.69

I have produced a weekly Candlestick chart on my Lotus123 Spreadsheet of the 3-month Gold Lease Rates starting Jan 1996 and hope to send it to you shortly.

For Goldilocks : Bart's Kitco clock seems to be running 10 minutes slow. I posted you a message at 09:57 ( his time ) .


(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:06 - ID#411440)
@ Rorklift re rhododendrons: I know growers in the Toronto region
( USDA zone 5-6 ) who have transplanted rhododendrons as late as
September. Rhodies are easy to transplant, but try to get as
much root as possible, and water in real well before freeze up.
If you have a choice, its best to move by the 3rd week of July
in Toronto as this period usually marks the last period of top
growth, which means for the rest of the growing season, the plant
will be involved with root growth and hardening up for winter.
Late moving means root damage and minimal time for root growth
before feeze up, and yet the plant must have root to sustain
it through winters which tend to dessicate evergreen plants like
rhodies. So if your rhody is still small, and you can transplant
with minimal root disturbance, go ahead right up to freezing. If
your plant is big, I would wait until ground thaw in spring and
move it then.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:08 - ID#231101)
Oil for gold?

I was interested in the following wire report from Bloomberg this morning concerning Shell's gloomy hops for rising oil prices. If oil remains moribund, as Shell authorities believe it will, can gold flourish? I would be interested in Kitco analysis on this matter inasmuch as many became enamoured of ANOTHER'S conflation of the fate of oil and gold.

"Shell gloomy about oil business

LONDON - The Royal Dutch-Shell Group offered a gloomy assessment of the crude oil business on Friday, announcing that it expects oil prices to remain in the $12 - $16 per barrel range. That's down from the $18 per barrel average over the past decade. Further, Royal Dutch-Shell predicted depressed oil prices won't recover any time soon, with the market glutted even as the ripple effects of the Asian economic crisis are spreading into other regions. "

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:10 - ID#240241)
I'm one who would like the chart info. If you can't load on Kitco,
I'll give you my e-mail & you can sent it as an attachment if you don't mind. Thanks in advance.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:11 - ID#431200)
So how close to the 1930s are we?

When Wall Street prays to the G7
Saturday, September 19, 1998
By Peter Cook
So how close to the 1930s are we?

After another week in which financial markets sought reassurance from policy makers but ultimately came away with none, the bad news is that there is no talk of the global economic crisis of 1997-98 being contained or a bottom to the big stock selloff being in sight.

The consensus is that things will get worse before they get better. If Thailand and Russia worried you, how scary will it be when Brazil and Mexico go? And, if you want a parallel with the 1930s, consider what happened in Washington on Thursday.

When the Republican Party in the House of Representatives turned its back on a finance bill that would equip the International Monetary Fund to deal with future crises in Latin America, it was an eery reminder of Congress's support for the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 -- a piece of legislation that priced foreign goods out of the U.S. market and precipitated a world depression. Then, as now, the United States was on its own. All other contributing countries back an IMF refunding, provided the U.S. government goes along, just as in the 1930s it was the action of the Congress that stopped trade and growth in its tracks. Nor could anyone think of a worse time to deny the IMF funds to help countries that face currency devaluations or defaulting on their debt.

Serious as this is, however, it bears no resemblance to the prolonged crisis of the 1930s. Think of a few things that happened then and compare them with the far better state of the world today.

In the 1930s, the U.S. economy declined by 30 per cent in three years. Because countries had previously linked their currencies to a gold standard, it was difficult for them to relax monetary policy. The situation was made worse by governments raising taxes even as their economies fell -- the fixation of the time was that, under any circumstance, budgets must balance. And, last but not least, there were no institutions, such as the IMF or the G7, that could be called on to save the international economy ( rather than trying to save national economies by beggaring the rest of the world ) .

That last point is worth making because it is to groups like the G7 that the financial markets are turning for some kind of relief.

On Monday, G7 finance ministers and central banks seemed to offer it when they spoke of the balance of risks in the world economy shifting and their determination to maintain growth in each of their economies and co-operate to do so. To the markets, that meant a concerted interest rate cut soon and they started to rise. But disclaimers from U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan and German Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer followed. There were no such plans they said -- whereupon markets slumped.

So far, there have been two stages to the latest crisis ( as opposed to the Asian one that preceded it ) . In the first, there was bewilderment as international events, some major, some marginal, bore down upon inflated stock markets. In the second stage, the one we are now in, there is an expectation that the economic chiefs of the G7 will do something other than be mere onlookers. The question that is not clear is what.

Nervous markets react quickly. And not always accurately. For example, what Mr. Greenspan actually said was: "I think I can safely say that at the moment there is no endeavour to co-ordinate interest rate cuts [among the G7]."

That is a statement that does not rule out either interest rate cuts or co-ordinated cuts but merely says they are not going to arrive quickly.

Look at the state of the G7, and it is plain that this would be the case. Two G7 members can do nothing: Japan has a 10-year treasury bond that yields 0.5 per cent now so its rates can go no lower; Canada has a weak currency to worry about. That leaves two players, the United States and Britain, which might cut, while the Euro Three ( Germany, France, Italy ) would probably be reluctant to do so ahead of launching a new currency that needs to have the adjective "strong" attached to it.

As and when policy makers feel their economies are in trouble, or if they can be persuaded that the world economy needs help, they will act. But that is unlikely to be the case until market declines threaten to produce declines in the real economy.

A co-ordinated cut in interest rates might boost confidence in the stock market, but would it do much else? Brazil, reckoned to be the next domino to fall, is in trouble because of a fiscal deficit that it can do nothing about until after a presidential election in October. So, with or without a rate cut, it could topple, spreading financial contagion to Argentina, Mexico and points north. Several Asian countries need to drastically cut the level of their internal and external debt; in this task, lower interest rates would help, but not much.

Wall Street's prayer to the G7 is for lower interest rates. However, while a small rate cut could persuade more people to buy stocks, it is not the complete cure for a debt-ridden, deflationary global economy. And, if lower rates fail to stop countries collapsing, what then

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:13 - ID#350194)
@ RJ's Sept.18 0:46
RJ - Just read your comment to Mozel yesterday morn. I haven't been able to keep up with all the daily fare lately, so I can't comment on many of the various topics being bantered about but as you know I do disagree with some of your statements from time to time ( Stop the Presses - don't worry, I still love ya babe! ) . I definitely disagree with your statement :"These folks ... will bend Gods own numbers to support their long held, but yearly disproved, belief that gold has been a store of value." Especially the "yearly disproved" part. I agree with you that the store of value concept really needs to be delved into in a massive 'crunch the numbers' type of presentation. But by someone who has more time on their hands than I, ( at present anyhoo ) . However, my limited take on it is that my slant or your slant are VERY dependant on the years that are used as a base. The 20th century's financial rollercoaster ride severely distorts the picture in anyone's favour depending on what years they use for comparison. For instance, wouldn't you agree that if I had purchased my Gold in 1971 at $35. and buried it in my backyard that it has done a pretty good job acting as a store of value for me? Maybe I haven't made a great paper profit but I believe that at the least it would have acted sufficiently well on my behalf protecting my purchasing power for the last 27 years. No?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:14 - ID#431200)
Fear and loathing of a global recession
As a deadly financial virus infects more and more countries,hope for a quick vaccine is fading fast, leaving questionsas to where the worldwide economy is headed.Saturday, September 19, 1998By Brian Milner
New York -- As a deadly financial virus continues to wreak havoc in markets around the world, fears are growing that the global economy will soon be plunged into a devastating worldwide recession.
Billionaire speculator George Soros, who has made and lost billions betting on stock, currency and commodity swings, likened the financial markets this week to a wrecking ball "knocking over one economy after another."
The global capitalist system, he warned, "is coming apart at the seams" and the United States, at the centre of the system, cannot remain unscathed.

For his part, U.S. President Bill Clinton called the worsening crisis "the biggest financial challenge facing the world in half a century." And the United Nations issued a stark warning of global recession if the three main economic engines -- the United States, Europe and Japan -- don't take quick action to drag Asia out of its deflationary funnel by increasing demand and spurring growth.

But still, despite Mr. Clinton's exhortations this week, there is no such co-ordinated strategy -- and the Japanese locomotive went off the tracks a long time ago.

Making matters worse, the leaders of the three leading economies, Mr. Clinton, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi all are in precarious domestic positions and short on political capital.

Meanwhile, forecasts for global expansion are falling with each new outbreak of the Asian flu. The International Monetary Fund will announce at its annual meeting at the end of September that it has sliced its estimate for world growth this year to 2 per cent, a sharp drop from its projection in May of 3.1 per cent.

So where is the international economy headed? Will the current bout of pessimism prove fleeting, or is the prolonged economic recovery that swept up most of the world for much of the decade really on the way out?

Most economists still predict that the United States and Western Europe will manage to steer clear of a recession in the year ahead. But they are showing less confidence with each passing month. And Canada's outlook depends heavily on what happens south of the border.

Indeed, Michael Hartnett, senior international economist with Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. in New York, suggests there is only a 10-per-cent chance of the economy improving worldwide in the next year.

"The probability that we attach to a western slowdown and an emerging-markets recession is 50 per cent," he said. "A western recession and an emerging markets depression is 40 per cent."

It may be that a recovery wouldn't be long in coming, if monetary authorities act quickly to restore confidence.

But in a worse-case scenario -- the kind that is getting more and more attention these days -- no country will escape the dreaded R word by some time next year. World trade will shrink, corporate profits will plunge, bank credit will dry up, worried businesses and consumers will stop spending and the stock markets will nosedive.

While recession takes an icy grip on Canada, the United States, Europe and Latin America, others such as hard-pressed Japan and many of its Asian trading partners will fall into a deep depression. Some economists say they are already there -- defining recession as a temporary condition and depression as one in which the patient is doomed to a prolonged, painful illness.

Like most pandemics, the virus that has sent world leaders scurrying to their central bankers or the embattled IMF in search of a cure, started almost unobtrusively in southeast Asia.

The first case showed up in Thailand last summer -- when the government failed to defend its currency against international speculators -- and trouble quickly spread to other economies in the region.

The virus -- which started in the form of currency crises triggered by concerns about the health of the underlying economies -- then moved on from Asia. It had no trouble taking hold in Russia and has now infected parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe. It also has caused considerable grief in developed economies such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand, which have been hit by depressed commodity prices.

In the words of U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan, these countries "have experienced the peripheral gusts of the financial turmoil."

Researchers are still conducting autopsies to determine what went wrong and why it spread so quickly and with such devastation.

"What struck me was the sheer volume of structural faults," said Nancy Kimelman, chief economist with Thomson Global Markets in Boston.

It was not just the bursting of the Japanese real estate and stock market bubble; weak political leadership; crony capitalism and nepotism in Asia; badly regulated financial institutions; corruption; the single-minded focus of central banks against inflation; or currency and stock speculators hunting for juicier returns.

"It's all of that and so much more," Ms. Kimelman said. "There are so many cracks it was bound to come down. The surprise is that it's taken so long to travel around the world."

Finding a cure will not be easy or quick. Further bailouts by the IMF don't appear to be the answer, as shown by the disastrous experience in Russia and Indonesia.

And such seemingly straightforward measures as the reduction in U.S. interest rates urged by Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrtien and others may be little more than bandages, when what is needed is radical surgery.

"We're now in a global credit crunch and I don't see any easy way out of it," said David Hale, chief economist with Zurich Group in Chicago. He believes the credit squeeze -- simply put, a lack of available credit for borrowing -- will produce a recession in countries accounting for about 60 per cent of world production next year.

Here is how the various regions stack up.
Some of the world's true basket-cases reside in this region, where economic tigers roamed just a couple of years ago. The worst is Indonesia, which may be in a class by itself with a forecast double-digit decline in growth this year, inflation at close to 80 per cent and interest rates in the 70-per-cent range.

But the most important case may be Japan, which holds the key not only to the region's revival but to a global recovery, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and numerous other international policy makers.

Without major structural changes, including massive deregulation and reform of its discredited banking system, prospects look grim for Japan's economy, which has shrunk for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the Japanese started issuing statistics on such things in the mid-1950s.

Its one small area of growth, net exports, has been put at further risk by the recently rising value of the yen, the likelihood of a U.S. slowdown and further woes in its key Asian markets. Modest efforts to boost domestic consumption through income tax and interest rate cuts have had no effect.

"It's just morphine," said Merrill Lynch's Mr. Hartnett. "It won't generate full recovery because the chemotherapy has not taken place."

Commenting on the dismal numbers for the quarter ended June 30, which were released last week, the Japanese Economic Planning Agency said the government could not possibly reach its forecast 1.9-per-cent growth rate for the fiscal year ending March.

But there is at least a glimmer of hope that Prime Minister Obuchi can push through the needed structural changes. What appears to be helping him overcome political opposition to reforms is the Japanese resentment at being singled out as a major factor in the current meltdown.

Meanwhile, Malaysia's controversial Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad, has taken the spotlight in southeast Asia with his radical decision to impose capital controls, cut interest rates and ban foreign trading in the ringgit and domestic markets.

Most Asian economy-watchers say this isolationist approach may help in the short term, but is likely to boost the risk of inflation, damage trade and increase corruption in the recession-ridden country.

Going against the grain of world opinion seems to be a specialty of Malaysia's speculator-bashing leader, who wrote in a recent Time Magazine essay: "If the international community cannot change, then Malaysia must undertake its own reform. We may fail, of course, but we are going to do our damndest to succeed, even if all the forces of the rich and powerful are aligned against us."

He's breaking with the orthodox economic view that hiding from the international marketplace is no solution. But then, in times of turmoil, nationalism of one form or another is hardly an unusual tactic.
Western Europe faces little danger of a recession, analysts say, and might even help other parts of the world from sinking in quicksand -- that is, if the German Bundesbank isn't determined to have the legacy "Inflation-fighter to the bitter end" engraved on its tombstone.

"There are really two major bulwarks in the world, not one," said James Zukin, senior managing director of Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin, an investment bank based in Los Angeles. "The European community is as big as the U.S., and its markets are generally healthy."

Paul Horne, European equity market economist with Salomon Smith Barney Inc. in London, calls continental Europe "an oasis of growth" through next year.

Like many world market watchers, he sees little risk of a spillover from the Russian meltdown damaging the Western European economies. Nevertheless, he has cut his growth forecast -- for the 11 European countries that will soon share a common currency -- to 2.6 per cent next year from the 3.2-per-cent rate predicted just one month ago.

The same cannot be said for the smaller former Soviet satellites, which are in much more perilous condition, or even the healthier Eastern European countries suffering from the general flight of investment capital away from emerging markets.

"The fallout from Russia is manageable in Western Europe," said David DeRosa, president of a hedge fund advisory firm and a professor at Yale University. "It's going to hurt like hell in Eastern Europe."

For its part, Britain's overall economic performance has been strong. But this masks problems in manufacturing and trade.

Mr. Horne forecasts several quarters of economic contraction -- it only takes two in a row to make a recession -- as domestic consumption slows and exports are clobbered by the overvalued pound and weakening demand.
Latin America
This region might have been better off if the likes of Mr. Clinton and Mr. Soros hadn't started worrying about it aloud.

Talking about the need to shore up countries such as Brazil from the rising tide of world financial chaos has done little for Brazil or the confidence of foreign investors.

The country's beleaguered finance officials have driven up interest rates in a desperate effort to stanch the outflow of capital, which, at one point, was departing at the rate of about $1-billion ( U.S. ) a day.

But raising rates to avoid a devaluation of the peso -- rather than taking more politically unpalatable measures, such as cutting the deficit -- causes even further problems and still may not prevent a devaluation for long.

Brady bonds, repackaged Latin American debt whose principal is secured by U.S. Treasury bonds but whose interest is paid by the issuer, are trading at nearly 20 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, reflecting investor fears of the region's deterioration.

Brazil is now in negotiations with the IMF for assistance.

Ronald Ratcliffe, chief Latin American economist with SG Cowen Securities Corp. in New York, said that until recently he had three possible scenarios for Brazil's economy: a soft landing, a hard landing or a crash.

"Given the events of the past few months, I've dropped the soft landing."

He rates the chance of a hard landing -- a recession, but with the currency holding its ground -- at 60 per cent and an outright crash, in which the currency collapses, at 40 per cent.

Recession in Latin America's largest economy would automatically spill over into neighbouring Argentina and affect other countries in the region, notably Venezuela, which is already headed for an economic decline this year and anticipates little growth next year because of weak oil prices.

Other countries, notably Chile and Ecuador, have also taken a beating because of depressed world commodities.

But experts say any recession could turn out to be a mild one and that most countries will manage to post some growth.
North America
Despite a gloomy trade picture and increasing damage to the bottom line of U.S. multinationals and financial institutions with heavy overseas exposure, the United States appears to have the economic strength and flexibility on monetary policy to stave off a recession. It also enjoys the luxury of being one of the last safe havens for everyone else's money.

But a major slowdown is on the way and it could tip over into a slump if the Fed fails to ease its policy soon and if people, frightened by stock market losses, start retreating from the spending that is currently driving growth.

The "wealth effect" has a powerful impact on the economy. When stock prices rise, people increase spending by an average of 4 cents of every new dollar they acquire. But when stocks fall, they retrench by an average of 8 cents.

"When their wealth is destroyed, their aim is to keep their savings intact," said Ms. Kimelman of Thomson Global Markets.

The effect of the stock market correction should start showing up soon in sales of such major items as houses, although the latest numbers remain strong.

Deflation elsewhere at first was a boon to the U.S. economy, reducing inflationary pressures. But now it has hit home. Domestic manufacturers are losing pricing power and overseas demand has shrivelled.

An "outright recession is possible if consumers respond too abruptly to wealth losses and deteriorating income prospects," Salomon Smith Barney said in a report on the global economy this week.

The same report on the global economic outlook says Canada will have considerably lower growth in line with that of the United States. Salomon's forecast is for real expansion of between 2 and 2.25 per cent next year, down from 3.7 per cent in 1997 and just under 3 per cent this year.

"In the absence of U.S. recession, the risks of Canadian contraction are minor," the reports says.

"This is not Thailand or Indonesia," added Mr. DeRosa, the hedge fund adviser. The sharp decline in commodity prices is taking a toll, "but there are more things that Canada does than operate mines and natural gas," he said. "There are a lot of things to fall back on."

Still, other crystal ball gazers see a recession in Canada's future, even if the United States manages to avoid one.

The global turmoil "will cause severe economic hardship in Canada," because of the continuing depressed commodity outlook in both prices and volumes and the grim trade situation, Ms. Kimelman said.

If considerably slower U.S. growth is added to this troubled brew, "it's not going to be a pretty picture."

Global growth slows

% change in GDP *forecast
1997 1998* 1999*
Canada 3.7 2.9 2.4
United States 3.9 3.4 2.1
Japan 0.8 -1.1 1.2
Indonesia 4.6 -12.8 -3.5
Brazil 3.0 1.0 0.4
Russia 0.8 -0.5 0.6
European Union 2.6 2.8 2.3

Source: Merrill Lynch

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:18 - ID#290172)
FT 9/19~9/20
Indonesia gold mines looted
By Sander Thoenes in Balikpapan
"Impoverished, tempted by windfall profits and emboldened by the breakdown of government authority, thousands of Indonesians are carting off gold and coal from sites operated by foreign mining companies.
Broken Hill Proprietary, Rio Tinto and other big investors say a trickle of illegal miners has swelled in recent weeks, causing the loss of thousands of tons of coal and substantial amounts of gold each day.

Coal, gold and other dollar-denominated commodities have shot up in value for Indonesians as the rupiah crashed.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:24 - ID#240241)
Rhody & per my previous post
This site has a constantly updating figure from Stanford U. on the national debt. The article I quoted said "U.S. national debt exceeds $4 trillion, headed for $5 trillion" noted that article was a few years old.
Per this web site
$5,570,087,000,000 is the current U.S. national debt.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:26 - ID#429121)
Robin Williams:
Heres a riddle can you guess who this sounds like?

" My company is the United States of America and is the largest and oldest employer/supplier in the history of our country. Weve sold more weapons, pickles, pork bellies, and other commodities than any other country in the world. Just last month, we sold a gazillion dollars worth of "stuff" to the world. That makes us the "best" employer around and the "best" supplier of "stuff" in the history of the world!!!!

Kind of reminds you of those continuous, perpetually loud, obnoxious used car commercials on television in LA, doesnt it? BUY NOW!!!!!!  BEFORE THE 1979 MODELS ARE ALL GONE AND BEFORE THE END OF THE WORLD !!!!!!!!!!!!! HABLAS ESPANOL!!! REMEMBER YOU HEARD IT FROM ME FIRST!!! IVE NEVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE!!!! THIS IS THE LAST TIME WELL EVER OFFER THESE SUBSTANTIAL SAVINGS!!!!!!!! ITLL NEVER BE LOWER, EVER, EVER, EVER!!!! BUY, BUY, BUY  NOW, NOW, NOW !!!!! FROM ME, ME, MEEEEEE!!!!!!!!! ( My commissions depend on it. ) AND FOR THE LOW, LOW PRICE OF $20,000, WELL LET YOU PUT 20% DOWN ON A 1989 MODEL AND YOU CAN OWE US THE REST - AND YOULL MAKE A GAZILLION DOLLARS WHEN IT GOES UP IN VALUE!!!!! I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE IT!!! ( But if it goes down, we WILL REPOSSESS IT at absolutely no additional charge and Ill keep my commissions ) CALL NOW!!! "

Sorry for wasting the bandwidth, but this gets old. I guess its O.K. to peddle goods here as long as theres gold, silver, platinum "related".

For sale: Browning High Power 9mm Parabellum/Luger. Classic Belgium design and workmanship. Comes with three 13 round magazines, one 25 round mag, and one genuine, fake imitation, gold plated bullet. Void where prohibited, standard disclaimer applies.

For more info, contact " "

Go gold

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:27 - ID#423313)
Hmmm--Seems like OMB and CBO over-estimated.
How long before the Republicans and Democrats revise their "surplus" estimates?

I've lurked for a long time and have a great deal of respect for the opinions posted here, but I'm afraid we have allowed Clinton and the Republicans to play a little David Copperfield with us. Ever wonder why Congress is acting lying a 12 year-old boy with a Penthouse? Surely the Reagan and Bush administrations pulled as many illegal stunts as Mr. Perky.

With the looming Asian debacle last year, Slick and his compadres in Congress ( Repubs and Dems alike ) would have guessed that the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget had been a little too rosey with their forecasts. And yet these political prostitutes knew they whored their way into positions of power by promising these so-called surpluses. Suddenly the promised surpluses are evaporating. BUT HAVE WE HEARD ANYTHING ABOUT IT?!!??!?!?

We have less than 20 congressional working days left before the elections, do we here ANY debate about appropriations bills?!? NO! Everyone is comparing their's to see if they got more than Bill's six.

Clinton was wrong for his adultery. And he should be impeached for lying to a grand jury about it ( though after John Bobbit, I think most of us would hesitate ) . But he was no more wrong than the Bush and Reagan administration's trading arms for hostages, selling arms to the Iranians AND Iraqi's, AND facilitating the drug trade, so they could illegally fund the Contras; and then lying to independant counsels and Congress about it.

We're being duped.

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:28 - ID#294232)
Trading patterns indicate strong accumulation!
As you all know I follow PDG and ABX in real time! Three weeks ago I posted that the trading patterns were changing and that the buyers were looking for size without trying to disturb the market! I am happy to report that the trend continued this week with weak bids taking out sizeable offers often on a ten to fifteen cent spread! This indicates that we have smart money looking for size... I am convinced that few retail buyers have moved to gold ( yet ) and that as usual the smart money is getting in at the bottom which is why they are attempting to hide the demand for these stocks! On the close yesterday ABX did 15% of its daily volume in the last 15 minutes and it was all on the upside! They moved it up a total of forty cents and took out the offers only to pull it back in the last couple of minutes, waiting for additional size! SOMETHING IS GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES AND IT WILL BE GREAT NEWS FOR GOLD! THE BOTTOM IS IN AND I AM CONVINCED MORE THAN EVER THAT GLD WILL MOVE FORWARD FROM HERE ON IN!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:29 - ID#429121)
Subject should have said -
Robin Williams: "Joke 'em if they can't take a f*ck..."

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:30 - ID#350194)
Gold and Oil
Voyeur Professor - If you are indeed a professor ( of Gold ) , I hardly need remind you that there have been many articles in the past, ( long before anyone around here began discussing Another's opinions ) , suggesting that at certain points in history their has been seen to be some type of co-relationship between the price of gold and the price of oil ( such as their simultaneous price rise in the 70's. However this relationship is not ALWAYS 1/1 and is not ALWAYS apparent. Price of ceiling wax and tea in China? One thing is quite certain. If Gold should hit $800. an ounze in the next few years crude will NOT be $14./barrel.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:31 - ID#147201)
Dabchick your 9:57
I am th worst advice on how to load the file, but I believe you have accumulated very important info re the real value of gold. When you can, I am waiting for this info. Donald has a lot of savvy on this ( loading and value of gold ) - maybe he can help. Thanx a bunch, Charlie

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:43 - ID#258195)
@Chas @Candlestick of Gold Lease Rates
Here is the weekly Candlestick Chart of 3-month Lease Rates ( Jan 1996-8 ) which I mentioned earlier. The Spreadsheet contains all the necessary figures to make the chart in case the chart does not copy.

If this works OK the Dabchick Gold Index will follow in another message shortly.


Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:50 - ID#231101)
Gold investing realism

Though I understand the logic of a dramatic and immanent rise in the price of gold, I have been chasened by a new realism, brought about by the two-year collapse of gold prices, and no longer expect gold to return to $800. Far too much commentary has been made on this site regarding the worlds immanent collapse, and far too much commentary indulges in the relation of that collapse to the fortunes of gold. I have learned to regard gold as a reasonably sound investment only if one abandons the armaggedon doctrine that really forces gold investors to play the role of some latter-day Jeremiah. Yes, gold probably would explode if catastrophe comes; but I now regard that catastrophe as an irrelevant and speculative condition for my future investment in gold. I would invoke the old story about the mother who proudly affirms her son as the only one in step as the band passes her by. If gold investors persist in disregarding ALL OTHER VIEWS REGARDING THE MARKETS FUTURE, then we will enmesh ourselves in a gold trap as dangerous as an equity bear trap! My present guess is that gold will slowly and eventually rise to about $350 to $400; but I believe this rise, spurred by the inflationary monetary forces each nation will adopt to stop deflation, will not be immediate or without a new bottom in gold. My advice to Kitco investors, then, would be to moderate their expectations and ride the slow but eventual improvement in gold prices by taking profit when it can be taken.

I also believe that many observers now expect golds prospects to improve. Consider the Princeton Economics Global Market Watch report which, for the first time in many months, rates the monthly trend of gold as "turning up." Or consider the new Bridge outlook on gold:

"NY Precious Metals Review: Little changed as dlr, Dow steady

By Darcy Keith, Bridge News
New York--Sep 18--COMEX gold and silver futures settled close to
unchanged, as a steady US dollar and calm equity markets kept trading
confined to tight ranges. Dec gold closed up 30 cents at $294.20, while Dec
silver was down 1.0c at $4.975. Dealers said the precious metals were
taking a breather ahead of the weekend and were awaiting for fresh impetus.
* * *
"Nobody wanted to slap on anything extraordinary for the weekend," said
Doris Hildebrandt, a dealer with Toronto Dominion Bank in Montreal. "I
think nobody wanted to go short gold, and nobody wanted to go long. It's
just range trading."
Market sources say the wide-ranging economic problems across the globe
were lending some support to gold prices, but the upside still looks
daunting and further gains may be hard fought.
"I still think any significant rally would be capped by profit-taking
and perhaps by producer selling, but there's good stops under $288," said
Hildebrandt. "So I think we'll be looking at a range of $288-293."
However, Joe Rosta, analyst with CPM Group, said there is considerable
investment demand which should propel gold to $300 and perhaps slightly
firmer in the days ahead.
Platinum and palladium settled modestly higher in fairly narrow ranges.
Traders said steadiness in the 2 metals despite recent regular shipments
from Russia has led most dealers to expect palladium prices are unlikely to
dive in the near term."

Such sentiment, while arguing for an improvement in gold, continues to reject any explosion in prices, and I have learned to play the gold market with a similar modesty

(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:52 - ID#258195)
Looks like the Lotus123 file transfer didn't work. And everything seemed to be so easy...thanks Bart. I'll try to put the chart into another format of some sort.


Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 10:55 - ID#347447)
Bail out or Blow out
When heads of state and ministers of finance are preparing to devalue their currencies, what do they do? They INVARIABLY swear up and down that they will absolutely, positively NOT devalue their currencies, nor do they have plans other than defending same, etc, etc. This in almost like a green light for wise speculators to start putting out their shorts ( layering, as RJ might say ) on these currencies.
Devaluation in most such cases is imminent.

The same, therefore, would logically apply to ANY statement that could be anticipatory stimulus to traders, speculators, and just plain honest citizen investors who would love to know just what the hell is going on ( the scum! )

Therefore, when Alan Greenspan, or Robert Rubin, or any other significant world finance official states that there are no plans for a coordinated interest rate decrease, one can readily assume that there is certainly some kind of money-loosening at hand. In every case, financial "crises" of this nature are approached thru the means of attempting to afford some kind of guarantees to foreign investors, and related debt structures . The citizenry is invariably sacrificed to the "need" for capital markets to remain "stable" and "investors" to feel that their capital is reasonably safe. Whether or not this is ultimately "good" or "bad" for an economy is debatable. Probably very negative, as there is no room for a curative purging of investment inefficiencies, mistakes, graft, and "bullsh*t that is necessary to start a clean cycle of reasonable prosperity. This using of public funds, or created debt and credit
instruments, or just plain transfers of fictional-reserve bank cash to attempt to bail out investors world-wide is actually Fascism pure and simple. With the IMF bankrupt, this will be done increasingly through the banking systems of the world. The alternative is the destruction of money in deflation, and the multiplication of the cost of living in devaluation. Both are occuring in Asia and threatening in Latin America. Reflation is the ONLY alternative government and banking systems have. The NATURAL curative is to allow the washout, like a raging fever, that brings the curative crisis. But the cure will probably kill the patient, such is the nature of the world economic balance.

So it will be the hair of the dog. The great inflation is about to begin. There will be no turning back. Who among this erudite Kitco Krowd can suggest anything other as a "cure" except nature, or inflature? ( Not that I am saying inflation cures anything ) It is now only a question of how the money will be delivered.

By truck?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:07 - ID#347447)
Voyeur Professor
History, mon Professor, does not bear you out. A glance at price charts for stocks, and gold, over the past several decades ( especially since gold no longer backs ANY currency on earth ) , will illustrate that when an asset inversion occurs, an asset class can easily appreciate to TEN TIMES its value in the space of a single such cycle, before that cycle wave is exhausted. So, by illustration, in the prior to last asset inversion, gold went from $42 per ounce to $850! Stocks cut themselves in half ( significantly more for many issues ) . Then, in the next asset inversion ( ending now ) stocks appreciated over 10 times in value, while gold cut itself to less than half! IF a fresh cycle ( they seem to be about every 20 years ) is due, then it would not be particularly unusual or extravagant to expect gold to reach 10 times its value sometime in the next decade or two. With communications and money flows heightened as they are today, a decade may be sufficient time in whch to find gold at $2,400 - $3,000 per ounce.

The point for gold investors to remember is that we are now standing in King Kong's footprint, looking for a monkey. $800? Mere chump change.

Mapleleafs anyone?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:08 - ID#147201)
Dabchick your 9:57
I am th worst advice on how to load the file, but I believe you have accumulated very important info re the real value of gold. When you can, I am waiting for this info. Donald has a lot of savvy on this ( loading and value of gold ) - maybe he can help. Thanx a bunch, Charlie

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:10 - ID#411440)
@ Mike Sheller: Your previous post best describe the true pattern
of manipulative events, no matter which way the stars are pointing.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:10 - ID#423313)
@Voy Prof.-Namaste' and a puff t'ya!
I've been cogitatin' on similar thoughts the past couple o' weeks. It reminds of that chapter from Gleick's "Chaos" - Phase 3 Means Chaos. I think we're nearing the completion of phase three and entering chaos, where the next few data points are going to be fairly unpredictable, but not necessarily catastrophic ( thought the potential CERTAINLY exists ) . I would expect to see the POG moving erratically over the next period before returning to a steady incline.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:15 - ID#231101)
Mooney: Questioning ANOTHER and other sacred cows


I thank you for your reminder that gold at $800 would not leave oil at $14, but this is irrelevant. You missed my point which was to inquire whether or not Kitco advisors believed that OIL WOULD REMAIN IN A TRADING RANGE OF $12 TO $18! If it were, then how would gold rise in spite of oils trading range. The argument assumed a conflation between oil and gold. I do not wish to pick a fight with you, there have been too many food fights on this site that have caused me to take-up more civilized enterprises, but youre query about my credentials has the flavor of intolerance that too many on this site have evinced. Yes, I am a professor; I have confessed as much in several posts over the past year and a half, including my very first. Interestingly, LGB, that lover of sophistry, suggested boldly and unabashedly that the site did not need academics. No, I am not a professor of gold, whatever that is supposed to mean, I am a Ph.D. in philosophy and literature. Does that disqualify me from gathering data and speculating about gold investments? I hope not. Maybe you were not trying to pick a fight or engage in "ad hominum" attack; if so I apologize before your retort, sincerely in fact. Too much muckraking on this site has made me defensive. I have learned much from your posts; and while I have disagreed often with your views, I respect your right to affirm them. Voltaire said it better when he argued, "I do not agree with a word you say, sir, but I would defend to the death your right to say it." The bitterness over whether one can disagree with ANOTHER has taken on the character of Islamic fervor.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:19 - ID#174103)
I think your linkage of the IMF and fascism is right on. The manipulation of markets by the politically well-connected through government agencies, to the detriment of the citizenry, is fascism pure and simple. If the Fed acts in the interests of the financiers, rather than the interests of the citizens, it can also be seen as the expression of a non-violent, "friendly" fascism. I never thought about it this way, but it certainly holds together.

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:21 - ID#294232)
SDRer/ Japan and Gold !
Firstly, appreciate your work uncovering BOJ report and I think we can all understand this to be an indicator of intentions... Some four months ago Codeman brought to my attention a Junior Mining Company that had just raised three million dollars to put a high grade gold mine into production and what caught my eye was that a Company from Tokyo had put the money up! Well since then this Japanese Company has put up another $5,000,000.00 to put another one of their properties into production! When i contacted the IR guy at this company he suggested in no uncertain terms that the Japanese wanted to create an intermediate sized mining company! What got my attention was the fact that the Japanese didnot want cash back from their vested interest THEY WANTED PHYSICAL GOLD! This same IR guy suggested that their partners were well connected politically in Japan and that they gave a new meaning to GOLDBUG! He also indicated that this company had huge amounts of capital and they wanted to fast track the growth by buying up more near term production!
This scenario tells me that what you uncovered indicates that the Japanese are now beginning to show their hands and they believe that gold will give them the winning hand! SDRer please take a look at this Company as I believe that the leverage effect towards gold is second to none and thanks to Codeman he may have uncovered one of those diamonds......... The Company is Claimstaker Resources Ltd and they have a website at please let me know what you think!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:30 - ID#31876)
A Look-back to 1927, Comparing Those 'Crazy Times' to 1998
Posted earlier this week, I think it is worthy of a re-posting.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:32 - ID#287279)
Greenspan's warning to investors
I think that it is very significant what Alan Greenspan in his September 16 testimony to the House Banking Committee, said:

"Investors will, on occasion, make misjudgments, and borrowers will, at times, misread their capabilities to service debt. When market prices and interest rates adjust promptly to evidence of such mistakes, the consequences of the mistakes are generally contained and, thus, rarely cumulate to pose significant systemic risk. There was some evidence of that process working in the latter part of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century when international capital flows were largely uninhibited. Losses, however, in an environment where gold standard rules were tight and liquidity constrained, were quickly reflected in rapid increases in interest rates and the cost of capital generally. This tended to delimit the misuse of capital and its consequences. Imbalances were generally aborted before they got out of hand. But following World War I such tight restraints on economies were seen as too inflexible to meet the economic policy goals of the twentieth century."

Without a doubt Greenspan is the master of obfuscation.
I believe that the message he has verbalized is that today, without the gold standard and it's tight restraints, the imbalances in the global financial system ARE out of hand, and that the consequences of the mistakes may not/will not be contained and thus, pose significant systemic risk.

Although this is not anything new to Kitco posters, it marks the first time that a US official has publicly stated that the system is out of control.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:35 - ID#411163)
It would tend to look like the Fed doesn't want to cut rates unless it is truly a last resort. To me it looks like they fear that the cut would not work. Then what? Things could go bad very fast right now.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:40 - ID#41338)
The Hatt Your 10:28 Posting
I agree with your analysis of the trading activity of ABX. I myself always look to what ABX stock is doing rather than the price of gold prior to making any buying or selling decisions for my other gold mining shares. As the buyers of this stock tend to consist mainly of the "smart money" in my opinion the direction of ABX is usually a good indicator of what is to be expected in the near short term. As ABX continued to climb on Friday with good trading volumes, this to me is an indication that gold prices are in for another rally, perhaps this week or the next.



(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:42 - ID#286230)
So how close to the 1930s are we?
Here is a gloomy view of the future.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:43 - ID#287280)
First post!-Question on options.
Several weeks ago, someone here at Kitco recommended buying Dec 99 Gold options with a strike price of $390. I would like to learn more about this strategy, and possibly be told how to do this with other commodities also. Any information or book with this knowledge would be very much appreciated.

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:44 - ID#231101)
Mike Sheller: On playing the devil's advocate


Thank you for your analysis and reminder that, as the poet Yeats says, "All the instruments agree" that golds rise seems certain. But I have been concerned to raise some counterpoint on a site that tends to eschew dissent and favor gold idolatry. Good analysis always incorporates the strongest virtues of the argument one wishes to rebut. So allow me to suggest that, even if world financial troubles were to continue, what makes us so sure that gold will prove the ultimate hedge vehicle? I have been investing in gold, assuming that outrageously inflated markets will produce a gold bull. I have been wrong, at least up to this point. And I am irreverently suggesting that the psychology does not yet exist for golds eruption. So my question rests with a concern that too many other hedging and safe-haven vehicles exist, and others like the new European inflation bonds that France plans to issue, for gold to rise dramatically. Again, my new realism represents not an "ex cathedra" argument but a personal investment strategy. If I were to invest the way I did in the past, I could face a day when Prechters analysis comes to fruition and the XAU falls to 35. I simply wont look for the gold nirvana anymore. If it come I hope to be reasonable well-positioned to profit; if XAU 35 comes, Ill have made my profit at XAU 75-100.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:46 - ID#225369)
unfortunately,what Greenspan did not say was: "Go gold".I cannot understand why he fears gold so much- if it is true what many believe is true that he does fear gold.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:47 - ID#225369)
unfortunately,what Greenspan did not say was: "Go gold".I cannot understand why he fears gold so much- if it is true what many believe is true that he does fear gold.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:48 - ID#156161)
I've propagated my favorites by layering and my

location is a gentle zone 6, so I'm going for it.

Had not considered your point on watering.

Transplanting a dozen highbush blueberry plants

at this time in anticipation of big harvest during

first summer of Y2k.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:52 - ID#276111)
I picked up your BOJ post this am with great interest. If they value their gold as you say, I come up with 2200 tons ( if I'm doing the math right ) . Is this what you come up with? If so, that would be a significant increase. If I recall correctly their IMF number is something in the vicinity of 700 tons. Are you certain on the valuation technique? You might recall that some of the European countries have re-valued at closer to market price. I cannot recall any published information on their valuation technique. I have sent a request to BOJ to verify the number of ounces and will post here if they respond. This appears to be a rabbit worth chasing. Thank you for the heads-up. USAGOLD

John Disney
(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:53 - ID#24135)
Value of rangy
To all rangy fans ..
Did anyone understand the info I posted on Rangy ??
Someone said Rangy was worth $1.50 .. How do you figure
that ??
I figure Rangy is worth a bit less than a buck ..
Anybody have anything to say or do we put rangy to
bed at an NAV of about $0.95 ?? ... and never mention
it again.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 11:57 - ID#329186)
Voyeur Professor( ID #231101) oil price range
For what it is worth and conclusions drawn from postings at kitco and other info sources. I think it very unlikely that oil will not Gush up,can't remeber who a Y2k trainer pointed out that a "student " in a large oil co thought it unlikely that they could lift more than 60% of the oil they lift today when Y2K hits. Strategic oils supplies will come into play once the Y2K fat starts hitting the proverbial fan and the attempt to stockpile oil at any price will begin

yes mike get maples


(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:01 - ID#225369)
John Disney,
thank you for kindly answering my query regarding whether or not Harmony was ,in fact,one of your favorite gold stocks.I own a small amount of it and I am looking into the other stocks you mentioned.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:09 - ID#156161)
character counts
I emailed RJ some months back about the cost of

purchasing a modest quantity of Maple Leafs.

He answered my inquiry with the question, "Have

you considered buying from Kitco?" I had, and

for about two percent more my order went to


The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:14 - ID#294232)
Voyeur Proffessor/ The line has been drawn in the sand!
Always appreciate your comments! It is my humble opinion that some three weeks ago the line was drawn in the sand and it came as a result of an obvious threat of DEFLATION! When the crb index slipped below 200 the powers to be became publicly concerned and statements such as " The war on gold has been pushed too far and we need to get the pog back to the $350.00 level! When I hear predictions of $200 gold or the xau at 35 I discount the possibility on all fronts with the exception of a world wide deflationary depression... Should Gold drop to $200.00 an ounce we will all be experiencing first hand what deflationary depression means to our lifestyles. Not to mention while gold moves towards $200 many will be wondering how their paper went up in smoke.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:21 - ID#156161)
character counts
I emailed RJ some months back about the cost of purchasing a modest
quantity of Maple Leafs. He responded to my inquiry by asking,
"Have you considered buying from Kitco?" I had, and for a couple
of percent more my order went to Montreal.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:28 - ID#258195)
@Chas @Lease Rates
I've put the chart into .jpg format, but its smaller than I would like as a result. Anyhow, here's my second attempt.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:33 - ID#287196)
Hatt @ Chas
Interesting post re:Claimstaker. Recently I discussed this comapany with a number of gold analysts and the general concenus was get involved and hold your position. Their basis for this judgement is the singular fact that this comapny has the right sized production, the right sized mine, the right cash flow and cost of production. They feel like many on this site that gold has a large upside move coming and the real potential of producing mines is much better than pure speculative ventures.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:33 - ID#147201)
Dabchick re charts
I haven't got anything yet. Would it be better to email? my email is

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:34 - ID#429121)
It thrills me everytime I see them take off and fly! F-117 Stealth and the B-1!
Big exercise going on locally - EFX, Expeditionary Forces Experiment. Lots of Congressmen flying in to get a glimpse of "modern battlefield command and control." Wish everyone could see all this hardware in action!

FYI - Previous post WAS intended as a TIC joke. Some folks love to "flame" but when on the other side of it....

However, the Browning High Power 9mm was for real. A good gun.
And that is what the note "For more info, contact " " was for. Nothing else.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:37 - ID#258195)
Chas - I want to crack this one. Give me another 24 hours and if I fail I will certainly send it to you E-Mail

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:39 - ID#156161)
Try this link, but remove the en first,so it
reads gold:

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:42 - ID#156161)
Try this link:

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:43 - ID#287280)
crude oil options
In 1990, Crude Oil rose to over 40, due to the Persian Gulf situation. If a similar crisis occurs again, buying calls on crude oil would seem a good strategy with a strike price of say 30? Anybody else have any strategies to trade this black gold?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:46 - ID#147201)
Dabchick re misfires
Take all the time you need- this stuff is worth it. Many thanx and sorry about problems- don't feel like the Lone Ranger, I get my share, Charlie

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:50 - ID#333126)
new pcmag editorial on y2k

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:51 - ID#347235)
Do you cut and paste all these multi-thousand word postings simply because you have no original thoughts of your own? Most of ths is available elsewhere and those of us that are interested have already seen it at least once. If you have no original thoughts please don't waste Barts precious bandwith and our time. SHALOM

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:52 - ID#290172)
USAGOLD--They never make info acquisition easy {:-))
Your figure certainly looks sufficiently 'horseshoe' to me...
What is striking -- this is a NEW report & posted for the first time Sep 18...

Here is the valuation criterium from IMF:

Japan International reserves
Gold is valued at SDR 35 per fine troy ounce and converted into U.S. dollars at the U.S. dollar/SDR rate shown in the IMF publication "International Finance Statistics".

To make our job more interesting, the BOJ report shows the gold in yen.

Japan with gold & Europe with gold ( and the apparent determination to use it, after a 25 year 'dry run' )

FT 9/19-9/20 "But Euroland is the world's largest economy. Its current account surplus is bigger than Japan's." Does it feel to you that we are sliding down the totem pole? {:- )

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:55 - ID#231101)
To The Hatt with thanks!


I sincerely hope your analysis is correct. I note that you cite a $350 gold price, a figure I have come to believe will arrive within the next six months. Such a rise would represent a considerable yield on gold investments, even though it falls far short of the much higher hopes for a gold price skyrocket that I refuse to adopt for sensible gold plays. Also, should deflation continue into that same six month period, gold investors will indeed have much to feel thankful for if gold returns to 1996 prices.

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:57 - ID#294232)
Codeman/ The more I look into Claimstaker the more I realize!
That this seems the perfect way to invest in gold with limited downside risk and tremendous upside potential. Have been buying for the last couple of weeks! The price seems to be trapped in this thirty cents level though. Any ideas why more have not recognized the potential here?By the way their cost of production on Blackdome gold mine runs $170.00 US....

(Sat Sep 19 1998 12:58 - ID#147201)
SDRer your 12:52
There are a lot of legalisms here, but no numbers. Is there akey to understanding this?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:00 - ID#290172)
USAGOLD--For the EU, the new rules are

7.44. Financial assets and liabilites should in principle be valued at current prices. They should be assigned the same value whether they appear as financial assets or liabilities. The prices should exclude service charges, fees, commissions and similar payments which are recorded as services provided in carrying out the transactions.

Monetary gold and SDRs ( AF.1 )
7.45. Monetary gold ( AF.11 ) is to be valued at the price established in organized gold markets.

{:- ) )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:03 - ID#147201)
The Hatt re CLN
Sometimes it takes a big wreck to become aware of the traffic!!

Voyeur Professor
(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:04 - ID#231101)
CPO2AU: Regarding oil's surge.

My original question about oil's moribund condition rested with Shell Oil's current view that oil would, baring a crisis, remain range bound at $12 to $18. I guess I'm trying to figure out why an important oil company doesn't have a more bullish view of their product. And my question went to the issue of gold; namely, IF there are serious doubts about oil's rise, can we expect gold to flourish?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:10 - ID#257174)
Chas - Thanks for your patience. Try this.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:12 - ID#287280)
Thank you, great information on options!

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:13 - ID#294232)
Chas/ You are quite right !
What Claimstaker needs is to get a newsletter writer on side so they can get their story out to the public in a big way! Everyone I have told about this Company have done their DD and ended up shareholders! The more I look at this Company the more I get excited!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:16 - ID#258195)
Ah...well...sigh... ( Must do better ) At least the icon came up!

Will try again tomorrow. Out now for an evening's bridge with lovely wife and a couple of good friends. BBTomorrow.

Regards... Dabchick

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:17 - ID#350282)
Just in case you missed it,,,
"The global capitalist system which has been responsible for the remarkable prosperity of this country in the last decade is coming apart at the seams."

Financier Soros Warns Global Crises Far From Over

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:18 - ID#276111)
SDRer Your discovery has all kinds of implications........

It would answer the lingering question Where has all the gold been going? It also sets up Japan as a viable competitor in the world reserve currency sweepstakes ( despite their problems ) . I agree, we have slid a couple notches down this slippery totem, but the world markets are only now beginning to realize it and to guess some of the implications. In my request to BOJ, I asked for the gold reserve in number of ounces -- an old Rothbardian trick I learned as a young explorer in the economic realm. Unfortunately we have to wait for anwers that may never come -- as you imply. You are right, the fact that this number just appeared on their financials is very interesting.
By the way I reworked the figures using the 130 yen per dollar exchange rate and then dividing by $42 the official U.S. price and come up with 2466 tons. Germany has 3700; France -- 3200; Italy and Switzerland -- 2500. All rounded. U.S. has 8100 -- maybe. Question: Do the Japanese have wider calculator screens with more places. Difficult to think in numbers this big, but perhaps practice for what is going to happen in this country. USAGOLD

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:20 - ID#286249)
Dabchick-Re: "If an independent index of gold's value
( in Units ) is constructed, it can, I believe, be quite a useful tool."

Thank you much for sharing this elegant tool. We shall be able to dive into the murky pool of liquidity and capture our golden fish!

However, one must take serious exception to your observation ( gracious and modest albeit ) "to less gifted souls like me." The GrebeGoldIndex is quite a gift. Thank you again. {:- )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:21 - ID#330209)
Is it possible that gold WILL go to USD 200 and that we will all be VERY HAPPY to hold gold at USD 200.
Remember, the rouble had ( was it 10 for 1? ) split not that long ago! ( smile thing )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:24 - ID#286249)
In times turbulent, a kind of continuity...days of Charles I...
In September, 1626, Sir Robert Cotton addressed the Privy Council and expressed his opposition to any attempt to debase {as Charles I was determined to do ) by stating:

"And wealth in every Kingdom is one of the essential Marks of their Greatness: And that is best expressed in the Measure and Purity of their Monies. Hence was it, that so long as the Roman Empire ( a Pattern of best Government ) held up their Glory and Greatness, they ever maintained, with little or no change, the Standard of their Coin. But after the loose times of Commodus had led in Need by Excess, and so that Shift of Changing the Standard, the Majesty of that Empire fell by degrees. And as Vopiscus saith, the steps by which that State descended, were visibly known most by the gradual Alteration of their coin; and there is no surer symptom of a Consumption in State, than the Corruption in Money.

"To avoid the Trick of Permutation, Coin was devised as a Rate and Measure of Merchandize and Manufactures; which if mutable, no Man can tell either what he hath, or what he oweth; no Contract can be certain; and so all Commerce, both publick and private, destroyed; and Men again enforced to Permutation with things not subject to Wit or Fraud.

"Experience hath taught us, that the enfeebling of Coin is but a shift for a while, as Drink to one in a Dropsie, to make him swell the more; But the State was never thoroughly cured, as we saw by Henry the Eighth's time and the late Queens, until the Coin was made rich again."

"The Measures in a Kingdom ought to be constant: It is the Justice and Honour of the King; for if they be altered, all Men at that instant are deceived in their precedent Contracts, either for Lands or Mony, and the
King most of all; for no Man knoweth then, either what he hath or what he oweth."

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:26 - ID#258142)
EC and gold sales
EC does not approve gold sales an instrument of reducing state deficit
Here is a quotation from Convergence Report of EC. Actually, bullish information.
"...A similar question was raised concerning the accounting treatment of central bank payments to the State which originate from the exceptional sale of gold and foreign exchange currencies, from the revaluation of foreign exchange reserves, and from capital gains realised by central banks on the exchange market. This issue came up in connection with the sale of monetary gold in Belgium and the Netherlands, and with plans to revalue gold and foreign exchange reserves in Germany. It has been ruled that payments from central banks to the State involving these assets do not influence the deficit calculation. This decision has also been applied in Italy to a payment made by the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi ( UIC ) to the government following the sale of its monetary gold to the Banca dItalia."
European Commission, Brussels, 25 March 1998

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:32 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I am not sure I am proud of this...however...some Mexicans
welcomed me into the 1000 quart club...tequila was flying every where...if any of you arrive in Huntington I suggest a journey to Viva Juan on E. Main Steet...#-185...the food is excellent and the people...the people...wonderful and smiles dream of being dealt such faces...beaming and brimming....

Needless to say Camdesuss is garbage and Clintler...I shan't say...anyway...Piglet and I are off to Mexico...30 rich families...

Libertad ah Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...Viva FREEDOM...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 13:51 - ID#373284)
the wrath of the people worldwide is near...forget politicians and tanks...
neighbors unite...expel differences...quantify similarities but retain individual to the village to pull coins from children's ears...heh...heh...heh...they don't leave my cage door open often but I take full advantage of such...


(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:02 - ID#41338)
Have Any of You Seen Yvan Auger's Latest Comments on The XAU. It Looks Very Good to Say The Least!!!
Yvan Auger has just updated his Web page on the Elliott Wave Principle applied to the XAU Gold & Sliver Index this am. He has a very bullish outlook in the short term on gold and the XAU index. He thinks we are close to another "leg up very soon". This seems to go along with The Hatt's analyis on the trading activity of ABX. The next two weeks should prove to be interesting.



(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:12 - ID#252150)
Martin Armstrong was on a Vancouver financial radio show this morn & I took
a few notes, some of which I may be able to read. A note of warning: he's not bullish on POG short to medium term.

1 ) He feels that deflation will prevail until mid next year when there will be a concerted effort to inflate. Full fledged inflation in 2000.

2 ) Thinks that the European Countries will have a real problem getting ready for the Euro. They are facing a double whammy: Y2K + changeover to Euro.

3 ) Thinks POG made a hi in all currencies except possibly the USD. Sees many impediments to increasing POG:
a ) Many Counties dumping everything that is not tied down. Swiss usually have 5 tons of AU for sale for other Countries-now have 70.
b ) Banks that usually extend credit to Indian importers of AU have withdrawn it.
c ) Swiss will vote to sell 1000-1200 tons of AU.
d ) IMF may be forced to sell AU since 95% of assets are in AU.
e ) ECB has successfully demonitized AU & feels it is now in the same class as currencies & the CBs will sell freely as curtrencies.
F ) The more that the CBs sell to private individuals, the better the chance for a real recovery that could start in 2000.

4 ) POO could crash again next year. Iran & Iraq desperate for FX.

5 ) More negative on Japan than even I am. As example: the S&L bailout required 6% of GDP. Japan's bailout if done properly would take 30%. No other Country including Mexico was over 10%. No other Country ever got out of a crisis of Japan's magnitude without devaluing. If USD gets to 145 Yen, could get to 200 & possibly even 278. Another example of how bad their banking system is: no U.S. Bank is even looking at Japanese banks.

6 ) Russia close to civil war. His cousin just came back from there & says soldiers everywhere. Museums stripped of antiques & being sold. Just like barbarians pillaging.

7 ) While most of the world are/will suffer thru a grim depression, he feels that because the N. American economies are core economies the mkts will not decline as precipitously as 1929-won't go down to 10% of highs.
Many similarities to 29 e.g. govt's defaulting.

8 ) AG will try to hold off on easing, but may start within 2 months & sees U.S. short term rates as low as 3%.

9 ) USD back up as early as next week.

I would'nt discount anything that Armstrong forecasts. IMO, his record is 2nd to none. He does'nt let his ego get in the way, is flexible & adapts readily to changing conditions. Because of all the variables involved in financial/economic forecasting, no one can be exactly right but I feel that he combines his TA with an extremely good understanding of history & has good intuition.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:12 - ID#238422)
RJ, your Story of the Gun, 00:07
Tovarish RJ, that was great. You got a talent. Write
more....I always said and will say that M-16 is a
Micky Mouse gun, and your inability to use it is the
best proof any comrade could find...
In regard to your friendship with this glockie
thingie - come on, my friend, this gun is shoots,
I agree, but come's really ugly...
I do know you got some class - get yourself something
that you can show to your friends....something from blue
shiny steel...

Anyway, thanks again for your story, I really enjoyed
reading it.

P.S. If you want, I can fix some .356 magnum ammo for you,
by carefully grinding 0.001" off .357 bullets...Payment
terms upon request...but get ready for the worst...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:14 - ID#340404)
The Ten Commandments for the latest Global Economic Salvation
I had a hell of a time carrying these heavy Golden plaques on my back while climbing down Mt. Aurarat.

- The massive mountain of enslaved capital in Gold short positions ( and that includes the producers ) must be liberated...NOW.

- The Japanese must RAISE his interest rates to match the American's and immediately redistribute the liberated capital windfall to support the economic recovery in his own back yard.

- The Arab must take "more drastic measures" to "shock the monkey" out of its deflationary slumber.

- The eunuch currencies that are coupled and pegged to the US$ must gather up their intestinal fortitude ( and their gonads ) and declare INDEPENDENCE.

- The Russian must pay all his workers and pensioners in Gold and then give all his miners and oil workers a well deserved, fully paid, minimum 3 week vacation.

- The wasted, speculative capital hoarded in stocks with P/E ratios exceeding 100 must be freed to flow to more deserving equities.

- The debt rating agencies, hedge funds and the financial mass media must end the deception of the masses and stop the blatand manipulation of currencies and commodity prices.

- The disastrous, short-sighted and self-serving war against inflation must end...NOW.

- The global economic tyranny of the G-7 and the IMF must end...NOW.

- There must be an "Unholy Trinity" of currencies ( the US$, the Euro and the Asean ) and Gold must play a pivotal role as the "Great Equalizer" in order to restore this entire planet to economic serenity and prosperity for ALL.

Thus spoke the Lord AUR.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:23 - ID#431200)
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser and definitions of M1,M2 and M3
I would like to know if the discussions on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser are published on the internet.Also I would like to find a site that gives informations on M1,M2 and M3 Thanks.Best Regards Goldteck.

Steve in TO
(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:47 - ID#209265)
Bart - are you finding that . . .
gold coins are flying out the door? Does your experience correspond with what some others are reporting, about a surge in demand for PM coins?

- Steve

(Sat Sep 19 1998 14:51 - ID#219363)
Headed to the shop to "accumulate" more precious physical. Nothing as much fun as purchasing physical for these prices - it's been fun for months, will probably get more fun before it's all over. Agree with others that the POG could still go down, though my definition of "significantly" probably isn't the same as others. Me, I couldn't care less if Gold drops to 250, I'd just buy more of it. The dollar can't stay up there forever, though I do agree that in the short time it could pop right back up and stay there for a while. I'm not a good market timer, so I'm not going to attempt to pick a top, I'd just screw it up and miss the train that will eventually carry POG up. Note that I don't see the POG "rising", I just see the dollar falling. Spend dollars now, that's my new motto, put USD into ANYTHING besides USD. Dump 'em while they're worth a bunch of wealth.


Steve in TO
(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:03 - ID#209265)
James - Martin Armstrong has some good points . . .
but I can see 2 things that he migt be missing:

1 ) I think he's underestimating Swiss conservatism and caution. It wouldn't surprise me if the voters reject a physical gold sale in their referendum. Remember, various pundits and the media were predicting that the Swiss would vote to join the EU- before they rejected it very decisively.

2 ) If there is a groundswell of grassroots interest in physical gold purchases ( coins ) it could swamp the sorts of quantities he's talking about the CB's selling. 10 million people worldwide buying just one 1-ounce coin each would do it. As Sam_A pointed out, if 10 million people worldwide bought 10 ounces each ( only a US$3000 investment per person ) the CBs couldn't even lease enough gold to meet demand.

Of course, such a surge would fuel a significant price increase and start to bring private gold out of the woodwork. From conversations with people in Toronto, though, my impression is that gold prices would have to go up a lot before people would consider it worth their while to sell their gold ( higher than US$400/C$600. )


(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:08 - ID#253246)
goldteck *****rukeyser wall $treet week not on line

PBS is suppose to have site up this fall ( real audio ) may not be free though

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:09 - ID#219363)
Gold, 4656 $US per pound, Silver, 80 $US per pound, Silver, 14000 $US per my body weight. Buy it like sugar! Woohoo!!!!!!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:09 - ID#42039)
does ayone know the figures of
1 ) whole main stocksmarkets capitalisation
2 ) listed goldmines capitalization
Any info is welcome!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:10 - ID#423313)
Options, we don't need no stinking options!
Or maybe we do...someone was asking for info re: options. The Chicago Board of Exchange ( CBOE ) website has a good primer. They will also send a free video and CD ROM with tutorials for anyone interested.

PS. For those scared of derivatives. Yes...they can be bad. But derivitives are written to hedge against both the crashes and the rises of currencies as well as temperatures, crop yields, etc. So even $25T worth of d's could be 13T and 12T down, minimizing their impact. And then again, Barings Bank was sold for a buck so maybe the idiots didn't protect themselves.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:14 - ID#242325)
Voyeur professor
If you look at the oil threads, many view the Shell announcement as an effort to lower investor expectations so insiders can buy stock cheap and company managers can find it easier to beat very modest goals. Also those quoted oil price projection numbers are for brent crude which trades well below US-produced crude.

These threads also report that Richard Rainwater -- the legendary investor who helped the Bass family build its huge fortune -- now is heavily long crude oil futures.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:19 - ID#252150)
Voyeur Professor@I feel that your PHD in philosophy & lit eminently equips
you to objectively analyse the fin mkts. You are not weighed down by a bunch of useless fin/economic dogma/baggage.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:20 - ID#329186)
Steve in TO ( Id 209265) coin purchases
The dealer I buy from in London reports days of heavy coin & bar ( AU not booze ) sales and although in "normal" times it is an ethnic market there has bean a lot of additional interest from city dealers .

get gold

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:25 - ID#253246)
goldy ***try bob johnsons spreadsheet

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:25 - ID#423313)
@Voy Proff
I dunno. Wasn't it these lit. and philo. academics that developed constructivism and social constructionism, creating the ground swell in post-modernism that liberated whole sections of society from positivistic reality and forced the rest of us into political correctness re-education camps.

Just messin' with you, prof. ( see what a professional grad. student can do with a little knowledge. ) ; )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:38 - ID#253246)
@anyone ******Montana residensts

I'm curious if there are commercials being run on television about the
pending vote on banning cyanide / mining . I am a concerned CAU
invester and wanted to see if opposition has $$$$$ to pay for TV
adds this early or whether they are just penny pitchin BS on internet.

H Weingarten strongly urges selling CAU stating possible bankruptcy
if cyanide ban passes

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:42 - ID#206235)
@ RJ....Brilliant posts...Russkie missiles, Gold as store of value
Loved your 10:41 yesterday on Gold's "Long term store of value"...however, as usual, we have the plethora of those who insist on believing in bizarre alternate know, "If I bought Gold at $35.00 in 1970 and..."

Never mind that no investors had the OPTION of purchasing Gold at $35.00 in the our lifetimes, being that it was unavailable and at a phony "fixed" price set by the U.S. for exchange pruposes.

Where ARE these buyers of Gold at U.S. $35.00 anyway? I'd like to meet one! Every investor I know, no matter the age...who has bought Gold "long" in the past few decades, has SERIOUSLY lost their Ass!

Now as to Oris defending those Russkie ICBMS's... let me just remind him that it can be a real sore spot with us Sattelite builders. I just lost a bundle on Loral stock in my 401K a couple weeks ago because my company was so foolish as to try and send up 12 of our Globalstar satellites on that piece of garbage known as a Russian "Zenit" rocket. Naturally, the rocket failed, taking our 80 million in satellites, ( and our stock price ) down with it into the Siberian hinterlands. The "Zenit" by the way is a modified ICBM...yep.....

Guess now we'll have to do more of those "technology transfers" and teach the RUSSKIES how to build rockets and target em on U.S. cities just like we did with the Chinee eh? Oops, I keep forgetting we're not IN the rocket making biz... oh well.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:44 - ID#253246)
@Preacher****whats your thoughts on CAU
I know you had subscribed to the Gold Stock Analyst and was wondering in John Doody was still holding CAU in his top 10 &
what he or you thought on the cyanide wote coming in Montana

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:47 - ID#26793)
Mexico looking at a lower oil price than the Shell estimate.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:51 - ID#26793)
...and Venezuela will give you an even lower price

(Sat Sep 19 1998 15:58 - ID#26793)
BIS may figure in creating "greater stability" of the world monetary system.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:02 - ID#147201)
The Hatt your 13:13
Please hold up till I get some !!!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:06 - ID#26793)
Barron's has an excellent ( and frightening ) article on derivatives today. It is written by Katherine Welling, sitting in for Alan Abelson this week. I don't have access to the Barron's site.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:15 - ID#298259)
SDRer and USAGOLD - BOJ gold assets...
SDRer - for the one with eyes which never stop looking... am I way off here.

If 1 yen = .000261054 gold ounces

then 432,895,734,000 yen x .000261054 = 113,009,163 oz

113,009,163 / 16 = 7,063,073 lbs

7,063,073 / 2000 = 3,531.536 tons of gold?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:15 - ID#410194)
This goes back a couple of days but I couldn't get on the site yesterday.

No, there are no names.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:19 - ID#410194)
@Puetz (Stock Market Crash Update)
There are 8 trading days left in the month of September, please let us know about that crash to 3000 in the Dow and about panic, hysteria and bloods in the streets.


Date: Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38

Nonetheless, the wave 5 down ( panic phase ) of the stock market
crash has now started. DJIA 3000 will be seen before the end of

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Date: Thu Sep 03 1998 12:01

The lunar-eclipse arrives this weekend. Anticipate super-large drops
in the DJIA next week and the following week.

I have never been as bearish on stocks as I am at this moment.

Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 17:22
Puetz ( Stock Market Crash Update ) ID#226307:

By the end of September 1998, I expect blood in the streets.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH ) ID#226307:

If the market is down sharply tomorrow or Monday, we may get a
bounce for a few days. By the end of September, however, it's
DJIA 3000 -- still another 5000 points lower yet.


Steve Puetz

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:21 - ID#26793)
World Gold Council discusses impact of "Big Bang" and gold ownership in Japan

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:36 - ID#266105)

Wanniski/gold standard

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:44 - ID#253153)
Why hyper inflation in the US is impossible under the present federal Reserve structure
As I read different posts declaring that the government will resort to hyperinflation before they allow a deflation, I laugh, so I decided to explain why it's impossible to have hyperinflation in the US under the present structure of the Fed. As you folks know we have a huge bond market with capitalization 200-400 times greater than that of the stock market. Most people don't understand the bond market. The bond market has supplied the capital that made the difference between the US and Brazil, Argentina or Mexico. It has provided for expansion of business, replacement of old equipment with new, roads, hospitals, schools, retirement,etc. We have a condition where people have faith in their ability to lend their money out long term--and get the same amount of money back 20-30 years later. The MAJORITY of bonds sold by governments in the US and Japan are long term 20-30 years out. If the bond market senses any money printing it will collapse, interest rates will soar and the US government will NOT be able to raise any more money. The opposite applies to countries like Brazil, Mexico, Argentina , Russia, Indonesia , etc, where all the debt sold by governments is short term maturing within 3-12 months. In these countries , debt will be wiped out via hyper inflation which we are witnessing today. In summary, debts in the US and Japan will be wiped out via deflation and in South America, Africa, Indonesia,Russia, etc, via runaway inflation. The only way to inflate in the US credit system is via our government paying it's bills in cash instead of checks. It would require an enormous expansion of it's printing facilities and by the time governments employees began getting paid in cash instead of checks, the word would be out. Should that happen--and I don't say it won't happen--sell all your treasuries. So far, the government is paying all it's bills with checks. I hope it helps.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:50 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

(Sat Sep 19 1998 16:51 - ID#219363)
Bought some more Gold ( as I said I was going to do a few posts ago ) and talked briefly with the broker I buy from. Told him I'd like to buy silver from him as well, but he's charging 8$US per coin, which is way more than I can get it somewhere else. Anyway, he has reasonable prices on gold so I got a bunch. He said that gold had been selling like it was going out of style at his shop, even faster than the last time I was there buying. He said that he had sold 20x his usual volume in eagles, and that he was having trouble keeping them in stock. He seems to think gold is going to move, I tend to agree, but I think down, at least for a while. Anyway, volume is high.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:02 - ID#373284)
Hmmmmmmmmmmm...heh...heh...heh...18 sovereigns fell out of babies ears today...
got gold...yeah...tons...little tiny smiles...uh huh...wealth...Hmmmmm...
yeah...I got's it...the finity folks...because the in is my respectfilled appreciation of others...

as the clouds do I make happy those who walk about beneath them...'tis my way...

I used to ( ashamed to admit it ) get paid for out-thinking others...

nothing escaped...nothing...truly there is good and bad...

me...I will be there to greet you when you run into the light...yup...

palms up...and when you get here you will realize that you CANNOT...con...templation...nope...although that goalie in Maryland...


(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:03 - ID#219363)
Can someone point me to Bart's prices on silver coins ? Thanks. Doesn't have to be the lowest price, just reasonable in quantity. We all love your site, Bart, thanks for keeping it up and available for investors.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:11 - ID#16255)
Just picked up a fistfull of silver eagles for $7 each single qty. price.

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:12 - ID#294232)
Latest poll numbers moving wrong direction for the Pres.......
News Weeks latest poll shows that 46% of the people polled believe Mr. Clinton should resign... ( up from 39% last week ) 41% of those polled thought impeachment hearings should be started ( up from 35% last week )
It appears that the pres. is losing general support now and this alone spells bad news for the USD which is good news for gold! Watch the dollar Monday once the tapes paint an honest picture of this rogue.....

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:20 - ID#294232)
Codeman/ Please check the accuracy of Claimstakers cost per ounce!
Just reviewed the numbers with a good friend of mine and he said that if they produce gold at $250.00 Canadian times thirty five hundred ounces per month the stock would have a value of $2.35 not allowing for any premium.... THATS ALONG WAY FROM THIRTY CENTS....... Could this be true? What did you come up with CHAS?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:31 - ID#238422)
Don't try to make me mad saying bad things about
Russkies rockets. By the way, what about a couple
of American-made rockets that kind of failed a short
time ago? ( somebody posted about it in details )
Whether was bad, computer was tired or Americans wanted
to prove to Russians that have the best garbage in the

Sh*t...I feel I'm getting too mad at this foolish Loral...
damn, nerves....Gonna sell Loral short to the ground....

it sucks in the same way
to express your "professional opinion" a little
bit down.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:33 - ID#373284)
The Hatt, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
You discredit rogues...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:34 - ID#238422)
BUGal, sorry, friend, strike 3 last lines of
my previuos post, it's a text that I forgot to delete.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:38 - ID#238422)
BUGal, you made me really mad...
I screwed up with my post, you must read:

"Americans wanted to prove to the Russians that
they ( Americans ) have the best garbage in the world..."

Competition is going on even in this field, what do
you want?

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:43 - ID#294232)
Help the rookie out what does namaste' stand for?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:45 - ID#327123)
Your taking some low shots at a guy that was willing to stick out his neck and give his educated opinion to us here at KITCO. Personally, I think Mr. Puetz is correct in the end result and his timing was off do to unforeseen things that none of us could see. Alot of people present their case for the future here and very few times is anyone correct. I imagine your even wrong occaisionally, eh.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:46 - ID#373284)
The Hatt, Sir...Namaste' a tidal gulp of tequila to ya...enjoy the day...uh huh...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 17:48 - ID#373284)
oris...............Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...Namaste'...gulps...and a crunch of a gherkin
to ya...:

Steve in TO
(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:00 - ID#209265)
CPO@AU . . . Thanks for the
update on gold buying in London. I want to keep my eye on this phenomenon.

- Steve

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:03 - ID#119358)
@yup! I ain't complainin'.......No......and I ain't braggin'.....but........
My dearest friend in the world, Big Ol' Wobbley, whose been hangin' 'round me for almost fifty years now, ...ain't had not one bit'o'maintenance ( exceptin' a few waxings ) , and he is still a helluva lot mo' reliable than this here site of late! ;^ ) ~

Saludes to Todos!!!! lets see.....hmmmmm.....a lime, a bit'o'rumsky and a splash'o'cola...........and VOILA!!!!! uh huh....yum and gulp.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:06 - ID#347447)
catchup ketchup
Steve in TO: Happened to be on the phone Wednesday ( I think it was ) buying Mexican 20 peso pieces ( ok, so I love that Eagle and Serpent on one side, and Mayan Sun calendar on the other! A Beeeayoootiful coin. ) instead of my usual Maple Leafs, Pandas, and Philharmonics. I must have been put on hold three times, one of them for about four or five minutes ( ok, so I'm not their biggest account ) . My rep was very apologetic and told me that "everyone" wanted gold coins. I said no problem, tha's gooood news. A little anecdotal indicator, perhaps?

ENVY: Perhaps instead of gold being 10% of everyone's portfolio, the new rule of thumb should be that everyone buy at least 10% of their bodyweight in gold.

JP: Don't kid yourself, my friend. Hyperinflation is not "impossible" ( your word ) ANYWHERE. Period.

Voyeur Professor: Just be yourself and don't worry about other Kitcoites being critical or supportive. We're all having fun, else we wouldn't be here. Your manner and erudition are a credit to this forum. Don't take anything personally.

oris: Brother oris, it is a known fact that Madagascar has the best garbage in the world. BTW, my favorite Vodka is Luksusowa - I find it a wonderful potato ( potatoe if you're Dan Quail ) Vodka, flavorful, and yet with that sharp, alcohol taste that some of the "smoother" Vodkas lose. Makes a great Vodka Martini.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:15 - ID#347447)
Hail on the Chief
I think I have the solution to this, ummm, errr, highly distasteful "president" thing. The works are in place to take care of errant William J. quite nicely, I think. Inasmuch as the man is the "Commander in Chief" of the Armed Forces ( glad I only had to type that, not actually, gag, SAY it! ) he should be summarily court martialed under the Uniform Code of Military Justice for having had sexual relations with a subordinate. Perhaps a firing squad? Six shooters, one of them a special guest - Hillary Clinton. All but one person would be shooting blanks. Don't you thik that's fair gang? At LEAST an article 15....

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:18 - ID#373284)
Mike Sheller...duh..listen to answering machines much?...Pal...and several more items...
although none of them seem to matter as long and short as you and yours being better than alright...and remember that my feet seek only to step where what is you has found bliss...uh huh...firefight anyone..NOT!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:30 - ID#119358)
@this kitcO....this tOlerant1......this me MummO.......
What an honor to be a micro part of this! .....and to receive such a wonderful phone call from T#1 and me Mumm this afternoon. I am grateful.
Dad was sure wrong 'bout yankees. uh huh. SO GO GOLDBUGS!!!! Love and Happiness! ( Brother Al Green...stop what you're doin' and put him up RIGHT NOW! )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:32 - ID#195260)
Open-Loop/Envy: $7 a coin doesn't sound fair to me. A month ago I turned down $6.44 a coin in 1000 lots. If either of you find anything under $6 please let me know.

The Hatt/Chas: your Claimstaker posts sure do sound like Vancouver-talk to me.

John Disney: Somewhere I read where Rangy had 63 cents in cash per share. Is this part of the Other assets? 146.2/41.3 = 3.5? Where did I read that?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:34 - ID#195260)
63 cents US
That was 63 cents US or ~4 rands

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:35 - ID#183109)
my "bearish" RANGY NAV. ESTIMATE $1.97. Bullish=$3.37, trading at 5/8!
Hi John, Yes, I understood your RANGY post, but then Im biased as Ive been obsessed with RANGY to get to the bottom of this whole story. Also havent yet thanked you for the Harmony info. I already updated the Harmony section and should have it all uploaded later tonight.

Regarding your estimate of RANGYs NAV, this is of course a very difficult thing to do due to the nature of RANGYs holdings, but there are some things that I would add to your post. After months and months on figuring and refiguring this stock out, Im confident Im not far off in these figures, but as always if anyone sees something that looks out of line, PLEASE let me know. Ill repost an updated EXCEL spreadsheet with all of this onto my site as soon as I can

But heres an overview. The spreadsheet will have a LOW, MID, and HIGH estimate. These figures below are the LOW estimate. Ive tried to be very bearish in this column, and even doing so, the value of RANGY is GROSSLY undervalued. Please check my figures.

RANGY now has the following:

7.5 Million Durban shares: $22,500,000
$20 Million credit coming back from RR $20, 000,000
SUF diamond payment $10,000,000
TGME $4,000,000
Other Holdings ( Harmony options etc. misc. ) $5,000,000
11,252,000 RR shares $27,000,000
Short term debt --$6,000,000
2001 bond debt --$48,000,000

TOTAL $81,500,000

( mid estimate is $2.53, and bullish is $3.37 )

So we have at least a $2 stock trading for 62 cents.

People seem to be so worked up about RANGY selling off the assets, but this is extremely bullish. It appears to me to be a nearly guaranteed TRIPLE in the short term. Am I missing something? Nearly all the above numbers are facts, not estimates. The only big estimate is the mineral rights package. This $35 mil is what Rangy carries it on their books for. The real value has been estimated at $85 Mil. Granted this was undoubtedly at a time with a higher gold price, but gives a good point of reference. Just last week I received a reply from RANGYon this specific matter. They stated, and I quote The $85 million mineral rights package remains in existence.

This should not be viewed that RANGY management is telling us the mineral rights, in present market conditions, should be valued at $85 million. But rather the reassurance that this MINERAL RIGHTS PACKAGE is still intact, and that all the assets that were previously estimated to be valued at $85 Mil are still in RANGYs possession.

Ok, off to work on the website. Im still getting all the bugs worked out and continuing to add all the info Ive gathered, so please pardon the mess.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:40 - ID#373284)
STUDIO_R....Namaste' and a pneumatic gulp to ya and the flock...for me...a Mandolin
privilege vested from MR. Bill Monroe...within his pocket I have watched much...heh...heh...heh...

when God invented candy he envisioned sweetness...not fields of labor... nor toil...I was there on that day...

and from his lips there was a whooooooosh...and the wind was created at his dismay...which became monthed at I heard...

For your family...a candle is now to be ignited...the fuel is from the well that is the Island that is Long...pardon me...for a few minutes...I have to help Einstein's fu_k's all relative and that is a totally different story...uh huh...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:41 - ID#119358)
Muchas Garcias! ( cabo spelling ) ....for all of your excellent work on rangitO! I, speaking on behalf of all the faces of studio, say.....Salud!!! and..... un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!! Great Work!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:41 - ID#29048)
Donald (Barron's on Derivatives)
September 21, 1998
Why Worry? By Kathryn M. Welling

A billion here, a trillion there ...
It started as a trickle. Not all that long ago. But admissions about huge hits taken on exposures to all manner of investments, from direct to highly derivative, by hedge funds, brokers, multinational banks, mutual funds -- even companies as diverse as Disney and Alcatel -- are now a leitmotif of turbulent global markets. Which, given that Wall Street incubates rumors like Washington breeds scandals, means that silence on the question of such losses can be deafening.

Small wonder, then, that Julian Robertson, patron of the arts and master of Tiger Management, who clearly recognizes the disinfectant properties of sunshine, was out in front of the news this week. And not only the happy sort-announcing his $25 million gift, in his wife's honor, to New York's Lincoln Center. Julian also owned up to paper losses ( largely on bets against the yen ) of about $2.1 billion, or about 10% of his hedge fund's assets, in just the first two weeks of this month -- on top of previously reported August losses of about $600 million on ruble denominated bonds. Portfolio losses are something that Julian famously doesn't take lightly, and his fund's recent incursions into red-ink territory are no exception. Indeed, that Tiger is still up 19% or so on
the year is scant balm, the mega-investor made clear when he returned our call Thursday -- even if that number looks none too shabby stacked against, say, the nearly 17% drop registered by the Russell 2000 thus far
this year. There'll be plenty more punishment to go around in the current market environment -- for both good and bad investors. "But only the good will survive." Julian left little doubt, to be sure, which camp Tiger is in.

But the hedge-fund titan also left the impression, in our brief conversation, that he has distinct ideas about who may not prove so lucky. And that he believes that the cultural fault lines in the brave new era of globalization -- so unceremoniously exposed amid the current upheaval in markets from Thailand to Brazil -- not only won't easily be papered over but still pose serious risks. In large measure, because of what might charitably be called a lack of candor about their losses on the part of some major financial institutions, particularly in Europe.
The fascinating thing, Julian says, about the negotiations that resulted in what he ruefully calls the "agreement" Tiger hammered out to extricate itself from its ruble exposure was that they stalled for a painfully long time over the insistence, by the European banks involved, that they'd take only "non-tradable bonds." "Naive us," recounts Julian. "It finally dawned on us that what they wanted was something that couldn't be marked to market."

Deutschebank in particular has raised Julian's hackles. The German banking giant's supreme leader, he reports, has dismissed questions about losses on its Russian exposure as "rubbish." Which is rubbish indeed, says Julian. "We know they got killed."

How badly is something that a bank spokesman says it is not ready to discuss. But it strikes us that, in current conditions, questions about specific portfolios'exposures -- while packed with all the prurient interest of the Starr report -- are perhaps less significant than the "macro" impact they're having in deflating the global economy.

Which is pretty much Andrew Smithers' take on the issue, too. Alas, determining the exact dollars or yen or D-marks of damage is nigh impossible, says Andrew, whose London-based economic consulting group,
Smithers & Co., advises international fund managers. Not much noticed while the only direction in which the markets traveled was up, it has become painfully apparent in the past year that the globalization of portfolio flows sped far ahead of the spread of "transparency" or adequate standards of disclosure to investors.

Nonetheless, some reasonable back-of-the-envelope estimates can be made. With world GDP at about $30 trillion, Andrew reckons -- based on the relationship between GDP and money supply in the G-7 industrialized nations -- that $30 trillion is also a workable estimate of the amount of money sloshing around the globe. From there, using a rough average of 5% Tier One capital, he arrives at a ballpark figure of $1.5 trillion of total equity capital in the global banking system.

Which certainly sounds like a comfortable cushion. Or is it? Says Andrew, "If current estimates are right and banks have lost $200 billion or so in the combination of recent events in Asia and Russia -- and Fitch has put a $100 billion number on Russia alone -- then the global banking system has probably suffered a contraction of its equity on the order of almost 14%. Which means we must either expect the banks to come to market for more capital -- or see a sharp contraction in their lending activities."

Neither, obviously, is an ideal background for world markets in present circumstances. What's worse, Andrew reckons, is that the $200 billion or so of hits the banking establishment has thus far owned up to could be just the beginning. Especially if "America's financial-asset bubble" pops. The reason: The financial system's immense leverage to derivatives.

Precisely how immense, Andrew ruefully admits, is unknowable. Consistent reporting standards simply don't exist. He ought to know. Andrew -- and Cambridge University economist Stephen Wright -- scoured the world looking for ways to get their arms around that information last fall. And he has kept looking, even after publishing their report, which illuminated, for his clients, the potential risk posed to the stock market by just one of the smaller elements of derivativedom: the equity options that have become a favorite instrument of fund managers intent on "neutralizing" market risk in their portfolios.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:41 - ID#431200)
A respected economic forecaster has warned that the world economy could stall or even contract over
Friday, September 18, 1998 Published at 22:08 GMT 23:08 UK

World recession forecast

Brazil could be the next country to plunge into a crisis

A respected economic forecaster has warned that the world economy could stall or even contract over the next 18 months as the financial crisis that has hit Asia and Russia spreads throughout the world.

Robin Brew and Alison Cottrell discuss world recession on the Today ProgrammeThe Economist Intelligence Unit ( EIU ) has issued one of its gloomiest ever reports on the outlook for economic growth.

The EIU believes that, even if the financial crisis does not deteriorate further, the world's economy is heading for a rough ride.

Russians have been forced to barter for goods as the economy has collapsedAnd there is a real danger that the global financial crisis could get significantly worse, with problems in Asia and Russia spreading to Latin America according to the research.

If that happens the world economy could grind to a halt or slip into recession. However the EIU does not believe that the economy will plunge into a prolonged recession lasting several years as it did in the 1930s in the wake of the Wall Street crash.

The EIU believes the key factor will be how the US Federal Reserve reacts to the financial problems and whether or not it chooses to cut interest rates. Economists have been downgrading their forecasts of world growth over the last few months after Russia was forced to face up to its financial crisis. There have also been signs of growing problems in Brazil. The country's financial system is in danger of buckling under a mountain of bad banking debts. The International Monetary Fund is believed to be ready to slash its own forecast of world growth to around 2% next year, reflecting concerns about the state of the economies of developing nations.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:44 - ID#195260)

Nice Rangy site Polarbear. I love the gold nuggets!!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:45 - ID#290172)
Economist's devastating Clinton editorial--"Just go"

"Nothing in his life became him like the leaving of it," says Malcolm of Cawdor in "Macbeth". In Bill Clinton's case, nothing in his presidency condemns him like his failure to leave it. He has broken his trust and disgraced his office, but he clings on. Saving his skin at all costs, against the odds, has become the theme of his political career. Each escape is notched up as a victory. But every time he wriggles through-grubbier, slicker, trailing longer festoons of contrition-he does more damage to his country.

In New York this week it was as if nothing had happened. "Business as usual" was the phrase. His wife was smiling at him again. Cabinet members were applauding. The Dow was rallying. At the party fund-raisers the president attended, not a seat was empty. Mr. Clinton spoke of the huge financial challenges facing the world, and of America's obligation to lead it "in a way that is consistent with our values". Words like this are meant to show that he is in charge, and some will hear them that way. But there is nothing behind them. What can "consistent with our values" possibly mean, when the overwhelming majority of Americans think Mr. Clinton's values have little to do with theirs?"

And the concluding paragraph: "Of course, it will not happen [that he will leave,SDRer]. Mr. Clinton, the Comeback Kid, has seen enough glints of light to persuade him to stay. This is a man who supposes that even after congressional censure he could bounce back grinning. Perhaps he could. But the spectacle has become too painful, too empty and too wearying to contemplate. Don't bounce. Just go."
Sep 19th ~ 25th 1998

(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:58 - ID#119358)
@rangitO vs. yahoo.........
could yahoo get a bid of 10 cents/share for their real assets? nope. I studio plans on letting a fourth of his rangitO go for a bid'o'six.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 18:58 - ID#347447)

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:08 - ID#156161)
Chrisophilos @ 14:14
If those ten came true, all the people of the world
could enjoy more freedom. The socialists could achieve
their goals without using facshist methods, and the
conservatives could have whatever wealth suited them.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:11 - ID#227238)
Mike Sheller:
Ah likes yer solution to the problem of the errant Commander in Chief. But I don't think either a firing squad or summary castration is a viable option under Article 15. ...... but then, those rules have been known to be bent, now and again. Yes?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:16 - ID#227238)
If WJC is the leading exponent of US values, perhaps our problems are larger than than most would recognise. .... In any case, I second the thoughts of M. Sheller.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:24 - ID#373284)
mmmmmmmmmmmmmm...SDR_er...Namaste'...on a bottle of will see
three labels...between the PREMIUM and main label gulp to ya...pitching pennies at the curb...fortuitous is most without doubt an existance which serves up banalities...

You do not...there is a word not oft utilized... the free diving championship...none would question your resolve...truth...BRABO!!!...for each breath you take in and enjoy...and share with us...uh huh...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:27 - ID#147201)
The Hatt re CLN
Once this gold miner comes off of 30 cents materially, I believe momentum will carry it past $3 , maybe to $5. As usual, the kick-off gathers steam and goes beyond the real potential at the time and then there is the pull back. I don't think the fundamentals are important once the move is on. It's the fervor that counts.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:28 - ID#119358)
SDRerO is a God. ( gulp ) otta' Myers to da darkO ron bacardi!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:29 - ID#156161)
Yes, Clinton may not be going. He's campaigning to not be
impeached. There is no one who campaigns better, it's how
he fulfills his astounding ambition. People continue to
underestimate him, to their peril.
SDRer, what European currency would you trade bloated dollars
for, in order to be in a good position after the end of this
year and prior to the full Euro introduction?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:32 - ID#28994)
Al Gore holds the Ace
Clinton has no money. He has no home of class other than the "Big White Palace". He needs lots of lawyers ( poor fellow ) because he has serious legal problems.
He has to cut a deal with Al Gore before he resigns. It would be in bad taste politically for the President to end up in a crowbar hotel. I predict a resignation, then a pardon by President Gore.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:37 - ID#429270)
Goldfields, Ltd.(GDFDY)...these shares should be quoted nationally, and
and the difference between it and Goldfields of South Africa, Ltd
understood by all.

Chris Thompson promises to raise Gold Fields status ( Business Day )

Gold Fields new chairman is an outsider who is likely to bring fresh thinking into the company. - The appointment of a North American investment banker type as Gold Fields new chairman is a response to a key issue at SAs newest mining house: its failure thus far to convince offshore investors of its merits. SA mines are traditionally rated far lower than their North American counterparts, but Gold Fields share price is particularly low, and that must limit the groups ability to achieve its stated ambition of going global.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:39 - ID#26793)
It's official; the banknote presses are rolling in Moscow

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:40 - ID#147201)
KUston re CLN
Check this out, you might be surprised. The details are easily available. I'm not pushing it yet because I want some more.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:42 - ID#434108)
"respected econ. forecasters" of 9/18/98; in Goldteck's 18:41
What were these 'respected econ. forecasters' ....
saying a year ago this time ?

They could have looked on kitco a year ago,
& heard/read, what they are only now beginning to
figure out......and 'proclaim' .

from my kitco post of 9/27/97:
"When the tent collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first;
but the side-posts,
and even the stakes..."

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:47 - ID#119358)
We ( T#1 y studio ) hate to drink alone. but we must. come on home teddO.
david....yes you were there the tent fell into the campfire.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:49 - ID#26793)
Leadership needed to avert panic; more countries may default like Russia

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:50 - ID#429270)
Goldfields Ltd... one man's opinion
I hope they forget about their Nasdaq market, and list on the

New York Stock Exchange, where there are no second class citizens.

old gold
(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:52 - ID#241261)
to gore or not to gore
To Gore or not to Gore, That is the question. Whether it would be nobler for willy billy to step down for our sakes or suffer the pangs and arrows of sex expression may be beyond reason. Contagion has flocked their closets full of skirts in the vested Halls and maybe a few trousers perhaps. But in the End it may be Gore who could be sore.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 19:55 - ID#26793)
Russian Central Bank under investigation; IMF loan money is missing

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:00 - ID#347447)
goldfever: David - tip o' the cuervo glass and a chug of Lususkowa, a belch of Bacardi, and a jangle of Jack Daniels to ya. You were right all along about the stakes.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:06 - ID#26793)
Gold Fields news

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:07 - ID#347447)
Hey Kev!

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:07 - ID#119358)
'Xcuse me....don't mean to be a bother, miss, but.....would you please add a bit'o'Sheller.O to the mix, maam. ummmmmm, dats better.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:10 - ID#347447)
Studio R
I'm on the phone now with Kev, and we're talkin' about YOU.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:17 - ID#119358)
take it easy now..........have mercy.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:22 - ID#411320)
market fundamentals
let see when gold goes up stocks go down...when stock go up gold
goes down. So let us be long gold and short stocks. You don't have
to be a genius to know this.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:24 - ID#347447)
Studio R
We're done now. Only good things said about you. Real neat talking on the phone with Tolerant, while posting at Kitco to him. I guess I should get a life? No?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:24 - ID#218221)
The latest on our leader: AOL poll,
they represent the opinions of AOL members.
Should President Clinton: Be impeached?


Be censured?




Be allowed to serve his term?




Total votes:


Given the circumstances, do you think the President can do his job? Yes




Total votes:


Are you: Male




Total votes:


Are you: a Democrat


a Republican


Not affiliated with a major party


Total votes:


(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:26 - ID#119358)
We have but one life to we must give it to kitcO. salud!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:30 - ID#347447)
take a look at the 1969/70 bear market. Stocks went down, and gold went down. Take a look at the 1929-33 stock market - stocks went down, gold stocks went down. Gold was flat. Gold didn't shine til' 34. Take a look at the 1990 market decline. Stocks went down, gold continued down - with a brief rally at the start of the Gulf War, but otherwise deadly.
1981/82 - stocks down, gold down.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:35 - ID#373284)
Studio_R, Mike Sheller, Namaste'clarity...
for me a privilege...

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:40 - ID#347447)
Spanky and our gang
On September 15th ( Tuesday ) I posted this in response to brother Spanky's request for a looksee on my part at the horoscopes of Iran and Afghanistan. For those who may have missed it, I herewith repost...

Yesterday Spanky suggested we all keep an eye on Iran and Afghanistan, what with perceptions that Iran was massing troops along a border region between the two, if I understood Spanky's concern correctly. I promised to look at the horoscopes of both nations. Those who are astrologically challenged may move along, but with all the brilliant and witty scientists at Kitco, most should have no trouble at least following the planetary positions, if not their significance.

While I do have the 'scope of Iran's latest "incorporation" as of the overthrow of the Pahlevi dynasty on February 11, 1979 by Khomeini, I do not have the date that the Taliban effectively took control of the government in Afghanistan ( Donald? Are you listening? ) . I will use the previous government's July 17, 1973 date. Be that as it may, the old chart for Afghanistan ( things move so rapidly these days, don't they? ) has been under enormous pressure the past couple of years - this last especially. Pluto conjuncting this nation's Neptune has heralded some severe earthquakes, while Uranus conjuncted its Moon/Jupiter at 8.57 Aquarius in January of this year. Uranus went on ahead to 12 degrees, then retrograded in May and is steaming back toward that powerful 8.57 degree Aquarius mark for Afghanistan. It gets to exact conjunction with Afghani Moon/Jupiter on September 30 - just a couple of weeks from now. Monday, October 5, Mercury hits Afghan Uranus - could be a news flashpoint.

Iran seems to get major action when Uranus goes forward and sweeps its Mars/Sun/Mercury conjunction between 17 and 23 Aquarius from the year 2000 to the year 2002. This will be VERY important. We want to be especially watchful when Uranus gets to Iran's Mars ( planet of aggression, War, etc, among other things ) in February of 2000. In mid 2000, Jupiter and Saturn make a rare conjunction with each other at 23 Taurus ( exactly where Mercury in the NYSE 'scope happens to be ) , and as they do so, these 2 largest planets in the solar system will be in square with Iran's Sun at 22 Aquarius, in square with USA Moon at 25 Aquarius, and almost on top of the Sun of the NYSE chart at 26 Taurus. Verrrry heavy. Watch mid-2000!

On the more immediate horizon for Iran, Mars opposes its Sun Friday September 25, actually sweeping in opposition to Iran's Mars/Sun/Mercury lineup between September 16th and September 27th. The first 3 days of October, Mars squares NYSE Sun, opposes USA Moon, and conjuncts Bill Clinton's Sun. So very end of September may be American fallout resulting in earlier action in or by Iran...if we want to focus on the Iran scenario as Spanky suggests.

Calendar days to watch -
Afghanistan - September 30, October 5
Iran - September 16 - 27 especially around the 25th
NYSE, Clinton, USA - end of Sept, 1st week October, Especially Oct 1-3

(Sat Sep 19 1998 20:46 - ID#237264)

Is just as overvalued at 7895 as it was at 9000 plus and Warren Buffet is $9,000,000,000 in cash, 9 BILLION DOLLARS THAT IS, YES indeedy.
With falling earnings and global problems, where will Buffet place that chump change?

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:08 - ID#43349)
Saturday night
Before the autumn, before the fall
Beware the autumn, beware the fall
Soon will come leaves of red and gold
The fall of the year and the rise of gold

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:17 - ID#252150)
Clinton@The elites want him out, but the common folk don't
The Republicans are dumber than I thought. By persecuting Clinton beyond all reasonable bounds, they will end up making a martyr of him. With their exquisite timing, the economy will start to collapse about the same time they start impeachment proceedings, & guess who will be blamed.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:24 - ID#347447)
I'm hoping Warren will place some of that 9 Billion in Clarity Resources.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:27 - ID#347447)
...and still ticking
lest we fergit -

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:29 - ID#252150)
Steve in TO@ You may be right about the Swiss rejecting AU sales
but if it comes down to cutting social programs or selling AU, I have no doubt that the social programs will prevail.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:38 - ID#373284)
lawyers are or two are decent...
Clintler is crap and Envirowhore...enough said...the whole world...YES...

those scumbags...GREENE COUNTY..TN..AL GORE...ME...AND THAT KOPPEL want a show....tune in I beg ABC...they will not...

F_ck ABC...more people get their bullshit...ya got that right...

Col. Purvis...SIR...cover your wife's ears...they are pussies....uh...huh...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:57 - ID#237264)

Peace, Prosperty and may all fortunes rise with Clarity.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 21:57 - ID#237264)

Peace, Prosperty and may all fortunes rise with Clarity.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:01 - ID#290281)
Macho Man or Momma's Boy??
Sexually Bill Clinton is still a teenager who can't get lucky.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:04 - ID#119358)
@Viva Clarity!!!!
May Buffet Bless Us All in Da Fall. ( a gOllum addendum ) ...... ( passed out there for awhile...back up now...I'll have one more, yes, please ) ....Death to Castro! Cuba Libre!!! ( bang, bang, bang ) Vivan Ron Bacardi y Oro!!! asi es la vida ( gulpO )

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:14 - ID#240241)
Chas/Hatt Claimstaker
I went to Claimstakers web site & reviewed whats been happening the last couple of years. Lets see, the share price has not gone over $.50 since
April of 97. Current price is $.31. There are issued options to management & employees ( offered after stock fell below $.46 ) for 225,000 shares @ $.46 each exercisable until may 1999. 285,000 @ $.68 expiring Jan 1999, 478,800 @ $1.05 expiring Feb 2002. Can't tell if 912,000 shares they sold to 4 brokerages? & 10 others @ $.50 in a private placement is included in the total outstanding shares or not. Plus,
( if I read it right ) Jipanga, for its investment in Claimstake got 1,000,000 units @ $.25 each which includes a share & a warrent attached, exercisable @ $.50. Another 1,016,000 units were placed in a private placement @ $.22 each. each unit consist of 1 share & a warrant exercisable @ $.30 each, both warrants are exercisable until May & June 1999.

If all of the above is a sign of a gold stocks ability to move rapidly up, then I must be investing the wrong way.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:16 - ID#252127)
Monica and da'Pres

Wouldn't ya say, if it's a female and walks; it's Endangered?

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:18 - ID#294232)
KUston/ I agree with you when i first heard about Claimstaker!
I too took the approach that it was just another VSE Company however once I started to do some DD it quickly became obvious that something was afoot here. What got my attention was the Japanese Investment in the Company at a time when raising cash is almost impossible! Take a look my friend and if you come to the same conclusion that chas codeman and myself did you will probably end up becoming a shareholder.... This looks like a hell of a way to leverage into the gold market. If not please let us know what we are missing!!!!!!

The Hatt
(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:29 - ID#294232)
Oak/ Take a closer look my friend!
Fully diluted with the assumption that Jipangu exercises its gold loan to shares you will be looking at 31,000,000 shares of which Jipangu will hold 51%. Two mines in production producing roughly 6500 ounces per month at an average cost of $180.00 US. No debt! Sounds to me like this could be a very profitable company.. As far as Directors options are concerned they are out of the money till .48 so I would assume they would want to see a reasonable return for their money. Just my opinion...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:33 - ID#280214)
Goldteck - source for M1, M2, M3

ALL: Is there a source for estimates of GLOBAL M1, M2, & M3?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:36 - ID#259253)
Mysterious slowdown explained
There doesn't seem to be any logical pattern about when this site slows down. I highly doubt that any governments are purposely sabotaging it, and I think it's unlikely that someone would take the time to train fifty monkeys to do what can be accomplished by one chimpanzee and a handful of orangutans.

The problem is that our ISP is having problems. But not for long. We'll be moving once again to a new home and well see if things dont improve.

To Steve: I agree that it might be interesting to chart the hits to our site and look for patterns that correlate with the metals prices. Unfortunately these things take time which seems to be our most scarce resource these days. Remember that Kitco is in the business of trading metals; we make no effort to analyze the markets in order to predict direction.

You asked: "...are you finding that coins are flying out the door?".
Sales and information requests for bullion products like coins and bars at the retail level definitely picked up when gold when into the sub-280 range.

To Envy: Silver coins are about the only thing we dont carry.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:41 - ID#333126)
Buffett's 9 Billion dollars
If the great Oracle of Omaha puts *only* 10% of his cash into gold, gee... my quick calculations put that at nearly 100 tons of gold bought at $300 on the spot market ...

or ... a heck of a lot of call options ...

or ... hmm ... a truckload ( many many supertankerloads ) of black gold... in the futures market.

less than 1 billion of Buffett's buying into Silver pushed the price up to $7. what kind of impact will he make on gold/black gold? interesting possibilities...

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:43 - ID#347457)
@Realistic and LGB
Guys, sorry for bundling you into the same reply, however, I am sitting in my Monterey hotel overlooking the ocean and trying to save time.

Realistic - being realistic you should shovel it equally to all sides. Come on! You know that we have some extreme posts on this site ( e.g., gold going to $3,000 or $100, DOW going to 12,000 or 3,000, etc.. )

Some posters go overboard with predicting the trend. Your vendetta against Puetz has no merit. He goes into extreme in his prediction of crash and the timing of that to happen, however, his prediction of trend is most likely right!

LGB - you are right in bashing posts "if I bought gold at $35  I would like to meet somebody who did this", however, you can apply the same for stock markets ( to some degree ) . You don't find too many investors who bought stocks when DOW was at $800. Most people bought at various timeframe, many put money in through $ averaging, or a payroll contribution, in their retirement funds, meaning they bought low AND high. What it comes to is that the old rule "buy low - sell high" rules. If one can do that in stocks or Gold, the person does good. However, due to the fact that predicting "low and high" in markets is a tricky proposition, people in the stock market did better. On the other side, somebody who can master the "low/high" prediction would do better in the Gold market due to more up and down swings ( at least lately )

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:45 - ID#259253)
Rhody... lease rates continued
To Rhody: Lease rates are by definition determined by the formula that I posted earlier. The free market determines lease rates. They cannot be set by any single organization.

Think about it. Lets pretend you were able to lease gold for less than the calculated lease rate. So you lease the gold and immediately sell it on the spot market. To cover your risk you buy a futures contract ( s ) for the same number of ounces. Since the futures price is ( usually ) higher than spot you take a loss. But thats OK because when you subtract that loss from the income you earn by investing the proceeds of the spot sale at the prime lending rate you will have earned a profit. That is with no risk, and no initial investment. Free market forces dont let an opportunity like that exist for more than a few seconds. Either the futures contract price would be bid up, or the banks would be forced to raise the lease rates until an equilibrium is reached.

The lease rate is determined by the difference in demand between gold for immediate physical delivery ( spot ) and gold contracts for later delivery ( futures ) . The banks, who do the leasing, have no control over these shifts in demand and therefore cannot arbitrarily decide on a lease rate.

When Buffet was doing his silver shopping and taking physical delivery, silver lease rates soared for that reason. The price followed. But then thats what youve saying all along.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 22:58 - ID#226327)
Bart Kitner, site improvements
Bart, since you are on line here, first many thanks for this incomparable site. Worth its weight in... well, you know.

I find that, if I am absent from my computer all day and download 2 or 3 timeframes at once, it seems best to scroll down to the bottom of the page to read the posts in sequence. This can take quite a while. Would it be possible to have a button at the top of the page that immediately takes you to the bottom? And a button at the bottom to take you back to the top? It would save a lot of time spent scrolling through the posts.


(Sat Sep 19 1998 23:06 - ID#240241)
Just click & hold your mouse button on the bar & drag to the bottom.
If your clicking on the arrow at the bottom, it will take forever.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 23:10 - ID#22584)
Duuuuuh...oh yeah!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Sat Sep 19 1998 23:14 - ID#259253)
Navigational tips.
To Pu'ukani: If it's the scrolling down part that takes time, try using the PgDn key instead of your mouse. Don't let go until you're at the bottom. Should take a couple seconds at most.

(Sat Sep 19 1998 23:41 - ID#280214)
Gold & price inflation of necessities
When Y2K scares people into Gold in a big way then the POG will rise independently of general prices - but along with generators, storable food, etc. - actually maybe more so because the young stock market refugees will put a financial investment ahead of survival supplies because they have no concept of really hard times. I stand by my warning to new & old Gold investors that they can't eat the stuff - it is only good for the long haul - when our economy recovers enough to bring adequate quantities of goods to market again ( 5 years ) . Until then it may be primarily barter of essential goods ( beans, rice, and ammo ) and comfort items ( chocolate & TP ) .
Investors may have an opportunity TO SELL GOLD AT HIGH PRICES to this market and then use the proceeds to buy survival items. TIMING MAY BE TIGHT! The price of food and ammo may lag Gold for a few months.

Impeachment of Billy Goat and global instability in markets and governments may drive investors out of paper and into PMs during late 1998 and early 1999. But by late 1999 panic may drive hoarding of food & survival supplies and thus waiting until then to buy those goods with Gold sale proceeds may be too late. Best then to just sit on it for the later recovery. This recovery may come in 5 to 10 years. But, if our civilization sustains more damage from other apocolyptic events during 2005 to 2015, perhaps only our grandchildren may find it useful ( if we have any kids who survive this ) .

I agree with many Goldbugs that GOLD WILL ALWAYS BE USEFUL FOR TRADE - if the buyer has his or her basic survival needs covered and thus can afford to sell products or services for a non-edible asset. Widespread trade of Gold will be hampered by its rarity - not enough people have it to trade with and any they get may be hoarded, rarely to see the light of day again except in dire circumstances. This is why the democratization of Gold holdings is crucial. The mints must gear up production of the small Gold coins to meet ever increasing demand for them by common folk.

Some reasonable fraction of M1 must be converted into Gold coin in order for trade with Gold to be reasonably common again. The US M1 is about one trillion dollars.
At US$ 10 million per tonne of Gold, just 10% of the US M1 would absorb 10,000 tonnes of Gold and drive the POG up {but NOT over US$1,000/oz for long}
See my previous posts on this subject ( hopefully the urls post correctly )
Wed Aug 12 1998 16:07

Wed Aug 12 1998 19:58

Wed Aug 12 1998 20:14

and RJ's post of Wed Aug 12 1998 21:05

(Sat Sep 19 1998 23:45 - ID#374235)
Go Vols!
Tennessee 20
Florida 17