Oh how beautiful, thanks for posting your poem - autumn is indeedy the most sublime of the seasons, especially here in the fine state of Virginia. The wind starts to blow a little cooler, the leaves swirl around the edges of the brick buildings and iron gates, and the scarecrow watches over the pumpkin patch in anticipation of Harvest Home. It's a time for peaceful reunion with friends you've been too busy to talk to, time for family, and time to prepare for the coming winter. Rest assured, the spring will come again, let's enjoy the slow times. Now is the time for the magic of the leaves and the chilly autumn breeze.
---
Come away! O human child
To the waters and the wild
With a faerie hand in hand
For the world's more full of weeping
Than you can understand

Thanks.Best Regards,Goldteck.

OK Polarbear..
At last a challenger surfaces on the
Rangy horizon..
I say $0.95 .. and you say between $1.95 and $3 plus.
My calculation is simply based on the last PUBLISHED
calculation of the Rangy NAV by Rangold which was
printed in Business Day maybe 3 months or so ago.
.. I then updated the prices of stock holdings to
present prices .. some things have changed .. the
main one being the conversion of DD preferred stock
to an ordinary plus an option .. but I allowed for
that.
.... I believe Rangy will come out with an updated
and audited NAV calculation in October .. We can
see who will be closer. The market says the winner
will be ME.

The physical representatives of the Euro do not appear until 2001 ( 2? ) , but your DEMs, FrenchFrancs, etc., become expressions of the Eurothey cease to be monetary units in their own right. Finis!

and, if we are at the flex point, all fiats are at risk
( some perfectly healthy Asian fiats were filleted in the last go-round )

the 'war' against the Swiss causes the Super Prudent ( among whose number I huddle ) disquiet
a Swiss account allows one to hold gold in one's own name ( i.e., it is not part of the banks liabilities )

if the Euro fails the DM soars ( for a time ) yet, if the Euro makes it, your DMs are cut in half

on the other hand, if the Euro comes, fulfilling its golden promise, you've nicely positioned going forward

( the Europeans have the sweetest carry going, e.g. DMtoUSDtoXEUUS Treasury paper purchased when dollar was gasping, nice returns in the bond positions, and back into the Euro at pretty close to parity in late Jan/early Feb 99, after German debt is redenominated )

but this does not, alas, work for us

the  has a Lorelei look, in the long golden wig supplied by the BOJ 9/18/98
further, it is reasonable to suspect it will be revalued UP come 99
but it is a little early

and the big, red derivative dumpster keeps careening around
who knows what it is going to hit

so, assuming the dumpster misses us

we're still standing on the beach awaiting the tsunami
at our back, the hills are aflame
maybe one has to be a Californian to appreciate
how scary this is

the deluge won't turn gold into soggy lumps
the flames won't incinerate gold
it is an excellent time to be risk adverse
**************************************************************
The.Hat@Claimstaker-Thanks for the news re: Japan acquiring a primary gold source-eager to check it out!

***************************************************************

James@Armstrong.statement "demonetized AU & feels it is now in the same class as currencies & the CBs will sell freely as currencies" [9/19 14:12]

James in reading the Europa Regs, one is compelled to accept monetization and demonetization are accounting procedures; gold moves from classification "Monetary Gold" to classification "Valuables" and back again. The terms really do not apply, in the EU lexicon at any rate, to Policy decisions. From the regs:

"6.32 ) . Demonetization of gold is recorded symmetrically ( S.1311 ) .
Monetization of gold occurs when the monetary authorities reclassify gold from stocks of valuables to reserve assets held by the monetary authorities. The other changes in the volume of assets account records then a decrease in their holding of valuables and an increase in their holding of monetary gold."

( Asset Classification is covered in 396R2223 Council Regulation ( EC ) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the Community Official journal NO. L 310 , 30/11/1996 P. 0001 - 0469 Amended by 398R0448 ( OJ L 058 27.02.98 p.1 )

Goodnight All. {:- )

for Envy .. Yes Virginia Autumns were something
special ..
for Sharefin .. I believe you are a South Australian..
if so .. you must know that unique time of evening
in the hills around Adelaide when everything goes
purple for a few minutes.. and those amazing sunrises.
I think I miss that the most of all .. along with
racing at Victoria Park and Morphetteville.

A tradition I highly recommend for gold-bugs is to take physical delivery on silver and gold coins, and distribute the silver to children in your family, and to children you know, during the Yule time. It's not overly expensive, few hundred dollars, and the children absolutely love them, and they collect them from year to year. The parents also appreciate the gesture very much. The smile on a child's face is worth it. In addition, on a child's 18th birthday, make it a tradition for the child's parents to deliver the child to your home or office for an hour or so. It gives you a chance to ask the child some questions about what their plans are for life, and a chance to give them a little bit of wisdom. Children love a mystery, and they love being treated with that kind of respect. Leave them with a golden eagle, they'll treasure it, and you, always. In addition, it's important to add to your eccentric image at every opportunity *grin*.

Date: Sat Sep 19 1998 20:30
Mike Sheller ( rich ) ID#347447:
take a look at the 1969/70 bear market. Stocks went down, and gold went down. Take a look at the
1929-33 stock market - stocks went down, gold stocks went down. Gold was flat. Gold didn't shine til' 34.
Take a look at the 1990 market decline. Stocks went down, gold continued down - with a brief rally at the
start of the Gulf War, but otherwise deadly.
1981/82 - stocks down, gold down.


Mike- Interesting, however a ) We don't know which way stocks are heading from here, except speculating down
based on predictions and the charts, which show a possible end to a gigantic bull. BUT in each of your a/m
down moves, I checked all but the '29-33 one, for which I don't have a gold chart, gold came down from highs,
where now golds are, what looks to be a bottom, if not they are down for their high of 1980. Which to me says
the end of a bull in stocks from ( my take ) 1974 'till 1998 and a gold bear from 1980-1998. No matter which way the
markets go from here, the major turning points are near, and I for one see them going in opposite directions.

Many keep playing with the deflationary and inflationary scenarios, and the choice of default by the US on it's
debts. This is mental masturbation, and can be enjoyable. I stick to my old ideas, unless something comes along
to dissuade me, and that, I again repeat, is a long period of inflationry DEPRESSION. The first part, due to the
monetizing of previously accumulated debt ( this as opposed to default ) . Since inflation is a slow and continuous
process, by the powers in charge trying to avert deflation and recession, default is a sudden shock to the world's
monetary system, especially since the $ is the world's reserve currency ( HA ) . As the story unflolds, over a prolonged
period, the inflation eventually turns into a hyper inflation. This has been the behavior of our ancestors ( history ) .

There will be attempts to avoid this scenario, which I believe will occur, and will only delay the inevitable, and one
of these is the introduction of a new reserve, or possibly another reserve, namely the EURO ( HA ) . ANOTHER pos-
sibility could come at some stage, where governments decide to go back to gold as a backing for their currencies,
by revaluing what is left in their vaultsHA. All of these together may be tried, and other possibilities, which I have-
n't thought of as well, like calling in the old currency and issuing a new "better one"HA. "There's is nothing new
under the sun!"

Why do I believe this to happen over the next decade to two? Well, coming from the old school, one has learned
that the down time of markets are usually about 1/2 of their previous up move. Check this out ( it ain't fool proof )
it does, however, seem to be true very frequently.

Oops, much longer than my average posts, time to say bye, and watch out for volatility soon, many techs are stretched
to extremes.

Squirrell, I tend to agree with your take on usable products verses investments. In a recessionary period, values will
deflate, and even if PMs increase in value, how many desperated people would give up the necessities of life for PMs.?
Longer term is another matter. But some wise uncle said, in the long run we're all dead. Not a pleasant thought with
which to end, or is this the end?

Hardly that ...

People dont just want Clinton OUT .. they want him to
SUFFER .. and he and his supporters will play into
their hands.
Sit back and enjoy the drama..

Surely not Dreiser .. not ever Faulkner..
more like Erskine Caldwell ..
..

Cans of Beef Stew may sell for 24 Grains of Gold ( 1/20oz )
Just before and after Y2K those who procrastinated buying survival supplies may be ripe for price gouging. Hopefully Goldbugs will be sitting on piles of food and ammo in addition to their Gold so that they won't be forced to part with their precious for a few cans of chili.
Otherwise those with large stocks of food and other essential supplies will "nickel and dime" holders of cash & PMs to death. "Protection Services" may also come at a high price in Gold. The trickle of Gold out of private hoards will deplete those hoards unless there is sufficient Gold in circulation to be paid back for products and services provided by the original holders of Gold & Silver.

I would tell him to be cool........... ( with regards to netiquette ) ...

He is FAR too valuable a kitco POSTER ( child ) to be booooooted...

I would be not too pleased to see him be goned..... ( 404'ed ) ........ya know what I mean?

Namast...
away...back to love shack ( personal ya know ) ......go gold.


go out and just be decent...

they will never take me alive...never...never...thanx for thinkin of me...no need for a light house...focus on Stevie Ray Vaughn...

Can a da...John Candy and Me are fine...right now...crankin Angela Stern out with Stevie zippin back-up...life is good...

Namaste' and a gulp from us for each ear...uh...huh...

...early Monday morning. Then sit back in comfort and watch a video, while you make money at the same time.
................
I seem to recall a movie titled Sex, Lies and Videotape. Could it be djvu all over again??

On my machine, Windows 3.1, hitting "END" does the trick almost instantly.

I don't need no forgiveness...what I need is upside down with St. Pete and the finity of littles eyes...Horns...Tom's...Wyoming...Justice...

YUP!!! forget nothing...over rock and thru sand...I will track those who treat children to horror...thus endeth the lesson...

Mine resolve is borne from the crakle on hooves of friends...

and Tom Horn was innocent...God Bless...

Thursday, September 17, 1998

The survivalists

At the fringe of Year 2000 preparedness is a group with a 'run-for-cover'
response to the problem. The more moderate view of the situation is 'let's try to
fix it before giving up.'

By GEOF WHEELWRIGHT
For The Financial Post
Remember those bunkers that were popular home-building projects during the height of the cold war? It
seems that people all over North America are dusting off their nuclear survival plans and applying them
to the aftermath of the Year 2000 computer problem.
Year 2000 ( or Y2K ) "survivalists" believe that the consequences of an expected failure by many
corporations, financial institutions and government agencies to properly deal with the "millennium bug"
issue will result in global economics chaos.
They predict that this could include mass withdrawals from the world's largest banks, a halt to the
flights of many major airlines ( due to problems with air traffic control systems ) , telephone lines going
down and severe power outages. In addition, many are concerned about civil unrest, looting and "the end
of the world as we know it" ( or TEOTWAKI, as it is known in the "Y2K" survivalist community ) .
The threat is being taken seriously by Canada's military establishment, which earlier this month
announced the establishment of "Operation Abacus" designed as an emergency response plan in the event
that Canada see widespread loss of power, looting or civil unrest.
Operation Abacus will reportedly see navy ships posted on both Canadian coasts in December of 1999
to provide emergency power if needed, as well as provide military assistance in the same manner as
soldiers did during last winter's ice storm in eastern Canada.
The biggest concerns about Year 2000 survival, however, are coming from the U.S. And it is troubling
to learn that many of these concerns are being expressed by well-educated computer professionals.
These are not the classic wild-eyed millennium zealots touting a biblical cataclysm -- or misfits with
conspiracy theories. They are often bright and talented programmers that have looked into the face of
the Year 2000 problem, declared that much of it cannot be fixed by the immovable Dec. 31, 1999
deadline and are taking action as a result.
Typical of these is American programmer Paloma O'Riley, who only last year left her job as Year 2000
project manager for British car manufacturing company Rover Group to move back to the U.S. ---
despite an invitation to stay on and see through the company's Year 2000 preparation efforts. O'Riley
says this was not a comment on the Rover Group's Year 2000 plans, but instead describes her decision
to leave as being driven by a number of personal factors and compounded by a desire to be "home"
when the Year 2000 crisis hits.
So when she and her husband moved back to the U.S. and he took up a position with a hard disk maker
in Colorado, O'Riley pursued her interest in the personal impact of Year 2000 issues more aggressively.
She and several friends subsequently became so concerned about the impact of the Year 2000 problem
that she eventually established a Web site devoted to Year 2000 preparedness called The Cassandra
Project.
She does worry, however, about the credibility of the effort, particularly as efforts to sell dried food,
guns, blankets and other provisions to survivalists via the Web grow in size and scope -- while groups
with religious and paramilitary tones try to hijack the growing concern about the Year 2000.
"Credibility has been one of our major concerns and one of the biggest efforts we have had to work on.
We maintain it by staying with our original mission and don't charge for anything although we have had
to start doing some fund-raising because we are having to hire people to help us," she says.
"But we won't take corporate donations or charge for anything -- we are not making money on this."
She is not alone in worrying about the warnings of hardcore survivalists, some of whom are buying
land in remote areas, stocking up on food -- and even guns -- to make themselves Y2K-ready.
According to Canadian Year 2000 analyst Peter de Jager, who runs what is probably the most
well-respected independent "millennium bug" Web site at http://www.year2000.com and has advised
governments and leading corporations on the issue, survivalists are giving up too easily.
"This [fixing the Y2K problem] is not going to be pretty, but the notion that we should all run for the
hills is truly silly," he says.
"Why? Because it's like finding a hole in the boat, giving up immediately, and jumping overboard, only to
either drown anyway in the deep water or looking like a fool standing in a foot of water."
For de Jager, it seems a little premature to be running for cover.
"Nobody, but nobody, knows how this one will shake out. Let's at least try to fix it, before we give up,"
he advises.
"Don't misunderstand me. I'm not against contingency plans for applications and services. I live in
Canada and it gets rudely cold in winter. Having a generator in the garage has always been a good idea.
If I go for a long drive with my family in the dead of winter, it is irresponsible for me as a parent not to
have some emergency supplies in the trunk. But moving to the South Sea islands to escape the mere
possibility of an ice storm and advising everyone to follow me, is irresponsible at a totally different level."

Actually sharefin is not a dinki di Aussie, but he's not a bad bloke so we let him stay. He comes from those two little non-descript islands to the east--can't remember what they're called, but they've got a lousy rugby team--the All-something or others. Not all of the other Aussies on this site are fair dinkum either. Adelaide is one of the nicer spots in Godzone. Have you tried a floater, mate? Glenelg is a nice day trip on the tram. Big hotel there now. Beers not bad either.

According to your computation when can we expect to have in 98 :
A conjonction of March in Aries joined to Saturn and Saturn in Moon.And Sun in exaltation.
Thanks
e-mail:orfinance@yahoo.com

I think that conditions at the time in the particular market may give a clue.

I hope that we have some here that will enlighten us with their opinions.

My belief is that in 1929-32 the fixed gold price had something to do with the miners not reacting, but obviously the miners must have done well during that period with lower labor costs. FDR's later raising gold to $35 from $20 was the event that changed things for the miners.

As for 1981/82, gold looks to have came off the blow-off peak of 1980, also short term T-bill rates of around 20%, not to mention very high T-bond rates was strong competition. It was a time when Volker under the guise of fighting inflation was directed to prolong world dollar domination.

In 1987 gold was relatively high and the market was very high for the period, in any event interest rates remained relatively high through that time, even into the 1990. I remember talk, about big players being forced to sell out of their gold and gold stock positions in 1987, but this may have been a government tactic to dissuade gold investments.

Today we have gold at multi-year lows, the stock markets are still very high, we have a world wide currency crisis, large PM short positions and world banking problems. This crisis seems to be much larger in scope than the 1982 Latin America crisis, which gave gold a positive jolt at year end.

I'm not as knowledgeable as many here, but the 82 Latin American Crisis seems to have had some of the same characteristics as we have now, excepting for the very high stock markets. Most likely their must have also been some short positions after the gold spike of 1980 that turned gold in 1982.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The International Monetary Fund on Friday approved a $138 million loan and a $24 million grant for debt relief for Bolivia. The fund said Bolvia' program for enhancing the country's economy should raise its current annaul growth rate from 4 to 4 1/2 percent to 5 1/2 to 6 percent in the year 2000.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1j.htm

Although intellectually stimulating, its use in real time trading, in my view, is limited. Price/time patterns that appear obvious at the time, often soon appear to disappear and are not easily discernible at a later date. Elliott himself was fooled by the huge market advance after the major low in 1938. It was not until the early forties he realized
a major new bull market was in place. Until that time he was calling the advance a bear market rally. Elliott did not die a wealthy man.

Robert Prechter is brilliant and is today's outspoken proponent of Elliott Wave Theory in forecasting stock market action. But his forecasting record, since 1987, so far, has been dismal.

So I view any forecast based on Elliott Wave Theory with some skeptism.

But also I know there is something of value in anything anybody has to say, although putting to practice what I said I find a challenge. Personal prejudices, emotional reactions usually get in my way.

Whenever I have that almost overpowering feeling I just have to respond ( react! ) to something somebody said or did, means to me I am probably off tract. Easy to say, now! My challenge is how I act ( react ) in real time.

Think that is the challenge of all markets participants, where the payoff can be huge if the right decisions are made in the moment.

NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - The Russian central bank Friday moved to halt trading of the ravaged ruble after the currency slipped back to record lows. The central bank ordered the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange ( MICEX ) to halt ruble trading for same day settlement on its electronic system Friday as the currency slipped to around 19 to the dollar for next-day settlement. The official ruble rate for Friday was 14.6 to the dollar. The central bank's one-day trading halt was issued in connection with a plan for banks to clear up debts and reinvigorate the payment system.

http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/9809/18/russia/

We all interpret charts from our own frame of reference, and for that matter anything we read or hear also. The few successful "traders" have a "touch" that few of us have. An honest broker long ago told me 80% of those that try trading short term are soon out of it and 19% of the others keep trying, less than 1% consistently make money. I long ago became a long term ( over 6 months plus ) "investor". ;- ) If you haven't read it be sure and catch the Up & Down Wall Street column on derivatives by Kathryn Welling in this weeks ( 9-21 ) Barrons.

Jim dwenck@prodigy.net

Date: Sun Sep 20 1998 02:36
Selby ( YK2 with a View ) ID#286230:
Copyright  1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday, September 17, 1998

It never fails to fascinate me how things start falling into place, like doing a complex picture puzzle.
The more matching pieces you find, the more the picture develops.

Just finished 2 of Pete deJager's articles, and replied to him with comments, when I came accross
your above posting.

If you're interested email me and I'll send you details.

It seems more and more Kitcoites are becoming ever more serious about this issue.

Reify@sitcom.co.il

You may be right, the Republicans may make a martyr out of Clinton. I suspect they think the tape will show him as he really is, instead of the actor we see on TV, and this will sink his ship. As Feinstein said, he is one super salesman when he starts wagging his his his finger ;- ) and telling us about "that woman". Like Bush's lips.

You may be right, the Republicans may make a martyr out of Clinton. I suspect they think the tape will show him as he really is, instead of the actor we see on TV, and this will sink his ship. As Feinstein said, he is one super salesman when he starts wagging his his his finger ;- ) and telling us about "that woman". Like Bush's lips.

takes iron discipline. Very few people have the 'right stuff.' Second-guessing, deviating from your system, chasing your losses- it's all too easy to do.

Interestingly- a lot of people's trading failures have their root in their subconcious- their 'heart' if you will, and these people are actually getting what they want from the market.

Best wishes,
Steve

It all depends which currency you are talking about.....

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

At some point the US$ price of GOLD will rise.....the US$ is not emune..

The Media can only project that " it's only a glitch" for so long !

Maybe Bill Clinton still thinks the he only has a "glitch"....

Goldbug I think you meant that the Democrates will make Clinton a mardyar - even though I can't spell it I tend to agree with you. In fact his being forced from office may bring about considerable civil strife. Certainly the Blacks will be angree.

Frankly, I'm pretty disappointed that the country has to be treated to all this and I'm no prude. Clinton has brought it upon himself thinking he could split hairs and come out a winner. He would have been better off admitting his error at every turn. The inclination of the Amercian majority to forgive him has been strong enough to have seen him through. But his performance in the video tape may be just too much for his supporters to endure. The soft spots in their hearts may vanish. This may be the Rupublicans' plan.

Actually, I'd like to hear what Starr has on the other subjects of his investigation. OK Clinton lied about is sexual escapaes - pretty understandable given how dispicable they were. But is that all there is.???

His supporters are going to be able to say he was hounded out of office becasue of his human lust - he was still a good people's president and Hillary a saint.

Is that the ending we want. ????

What is it Steve To that people are looking for in their self conscious that leads them to be bad traders. Tend to think you are right, by the way. But if there weren't bad traders would there be good ones. If there weren't bad football players hampered by faults in their self consciousness would their be good ones??

Ah such speculation.

Speaking of the self conscious, seems to be interferring with my conscious which always gets a rude shock when it looks at the weekly charts of the metals and energy markets.

The way I see them
Gold - looks the best short term but is still in a downtrend on the weekly charts having just peaked above the downtrending moving averages.
Silver - looks so bad the retest of $4.65 looks almost certain.
Platinum at 363 is just about 6% from going to new lows for the last couple of years.
Palladium looks the best on the weeklies, but should it fail at 275, 250 looks certainly in its furture. The pattern looks to need that drop.
Oil - a jump here in the context of a downtrend - $16.25 should contain the advance if it hasn't already run out of steam.
CRB - my god what a mess - at 203, where it closed Friday, its pulling back to the lows of late August.

If I had no fundlemental belief attachment to these futures and didn't know what the charts represented I'd be flat bearish about every one of them. Gold needs a close over $300 at a minimum and soon. It is the best performing metal and it is but 5% off its low. Such minimal rallies are not uncommon in bear trends.

Boy, the weekly charts always make me want to sell. I think my self conscious is in the way.

all that is me...welcomes you and your family...for me...each and every one of you...aw heck...I jest luv ya...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980919/t.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980920/g.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980920/c.html

the future...

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles/6_iranafqan_1499802.htm

here it will start....and the flames will be fanned from far flung places.....

the present.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha14.gif

dec '99 calls are still cheap.....

lock-stepping.with.black.gold.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha22.gif

perched precariously on the edge of the razor blade.....

http://bohl.minot.com/index.html

look at weekly crude oil in '91......
she'll soon best that mark by far..........
yar by gar....gullye foyle...mystery man from the
annals of sci-fi....

WAR! good god ya'll, what is it good for? absolutely nothing....
sing it again.....--name the band...

http://www.cfcsc.dnd.ca/links/milhist/index.html


don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade....

ANOTHER view.....

http://www.hollyland.com/

read on....

http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/slavery.htm

'time was' wishbone ash......rock on.

good morning la....

http://www.milnet.com/milnet/nukeweap/photo/XX46.JPG

a small one....

j orlin.......ethernetic.watchdog....

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

sic em..

I look at the weekly charts of the metals and almost pass out with bearishness. The daily on gold is the best looking of all the metal charts. $300 is screeming to be surpassed - flaunting its resistance. Failure to rally will no doubt bring about a test of the 288 area. Technical trend following systems will reverse and go short under 285. The CRB is about to go down for another look under 200. If the dollar desn't fall as expected as a result of the clinton tapes, watch out below for gold - dwon, down, down!!!!!!

Yes, there is every reason to own gold, good insurance, falling stocks, ending of the world everything. But the bonds and gold can not rally together. The best that can be said for gold is that perhaps its time for a change of leadership.

Bulls are in here ahead of much convincing evidence that the trend for gold has really change - more likely they are left over having beleived the press releases from the April rally when we were last faked out.

The most bullish thing that can be said is that the sentiment for much of a rally in gold isn't there. Ask around, any body think gold can go above $300 ans stay there for two trading days.?? Can gold go to $325 - oh boy we start getting dizzy.

Bulls on gold are early and likely riding a false hope. Commodities in general and the other metals don't look as good.

a russian bearucrat can buy a $70 million estate in southern France.

re your 01:31 - I agree TOTALLY with your assessment of the stock vs gold markets. Remember, I'm the extremist ( referred to by another poster ) who sees gold in the thousands in the next decade. I was just pointing out to Rich that one must always be on one's toes when one thinks one has found a magical market formula - ie, in his case, stocks up gold down, gold up stocks down. I posted those historical market periods to illustrate that this is not necessarily the case and should not be expected to be automatically. I particularly like your description of how inflation will occur by preventing debt default. Monetization is the word. Thank You.

your 1:07 "Tradition" - a very wise and beautiful post. How sad that this must be thought "eccentric" in this current day. Bravo.

http://www.fiendbear.com/

site, the one in black we all use; either post it here shortly, or E me at: badger@lcc.net

thanks

Hi Cherokee. Did you know your mailbox is full? New mail is being rejected.

Monitization not inflation, per se, is what will take gold to its future lofty highs to the total bewilderment of the average citizen who has been lead to believe gold was long since dead.

I just wonder how long we'll be able to keep our gold and gold stocks. I should think if Repiblicans are ushered into office theses last years of this century our chances may be good for another decade, but should the confisgating Democrats regain power or rather when, gold will not be safe in one's possesion is my belief.

Before that unknown date in the future, however, we have to get over one big hurdle, $300, and I think its going to take something damn fundlemental to make that happen - like MONITIZATION.

THE market value of the world's largest oil company fell
by some 5 billion yesterday when Royal Dutch/Shell
announced that it was embarking on a massive
cost-cutting exercise that puts at risk about 4,200 jobs.

Shell also gave warning that plunging oil and gas prices
would force it to write down the value of its assets.

The company said the business environment would be
significantly worse in the second half and announced the
closure of four national head offices in the UK, Germany,
France and The Netherlands.

The company would not disclose the size of the asset
write-down or the number of jobs to go, but analysts
predicted that half of the payroll could be cut. Most of the
jobs relate to Shell's European refining and marketing
operations which are to be merged with those of Texaco
and streamlined into a pan-European operation.

Shares in both Royal Dutch Petroleum and Shell
Transport and Trading initially plunged 8 per cent on fears
that Shell was giving a profit warning but later partially
recovered, ending 5 per cent off. The company said: "The
average Brent oil price over the last ten years was about
$18 per barrel.We think that in the medium term - the
next two to three years - it could stay depressed at levels
between $12 and $16 per barrel."

The stock market took encouragement from signs that the
company is getting to grips with overmanning in its
operating companies, widely viewed as powerful but
obstructive local fiefdoms. One analyst said: "It is the final
nail in the coffin of the regions. They have resisted
change."

Shell would not indicate the size of the asset writedowns
or the savings to be gained from the head office closures
in London, Paris, Rotterdam and Hamburg. However,
analysts reckon that savings made by BP in similar
exercises indicate that Shell could cut some 200 million a
year from overheads by eliminating 2,000 jobs. The blow
will be keenly felt in Shell UK which employs some 2,000
people at Shell Mex House in London.

A spokesman for Shell UK said the headquarters would
be vacated by the end of next year with corporate
functions moving out early next year. About 300
exploration staff have already been told they must move to
Aberdeen.

Shell's warning was officially delivered by Mark
Moody-Stuart, group chairman, as he addressed a
meeting of fund managers in San Francisco, late
yesterday. The decision to announce a huge European
shake-up in the US, rather than to the company's core
investors in London or The Hague was considered a
blunder by some Shell watchers. However, others believe
that it is further evidence that Mr Moody-Stuart is pushing
to the top of the agenda hard decisions. Key to the head
office closures is thought to be efforts to raise returns
initiated by Phil Turberville, Shell's controversial head of
European oil products. Paul Spedding, analyst at
Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, said: "Shell in the past has
been able to wait, it is so big, but now they realise the
cannot afford to wait."

Shell's management has been smarting from a highly visible
failure to raise the return on average capital employed.
The company admitted yesterday that it would stay well
below its projection of a 12 per cent return for this year
and forecast results reflecting the difficult environment.

Jurgen Lunshoff, of Credit Lyonnais Laing, the broker,
said that yesterday's announcement was good news and
provided the meat that was missing when Shell revealed
its tie-up with Texaco.

of which there are many ways. Forgive the egocentricity ( I'm an Aries, I can't help it ) but in 1996 I told visitors to The Astrological Investor on the 'net that Spring of '97, thru Fall/Winter of that year would mark a period in which to be buying gold. I saw it as a major astrological stress period, and it came to pass ( not that I had anything much to do with bringing it on ) . While I do admit this weakness has extended a bit further than I thought, nevertheless my advice ( only advice - I am NOT an "advisor" ) was that the folks dollar-cost-average gold bullion purchases over that time frame, and beyond. Remember, the astrological/metaphysical/new age crowd tends not to be so materialistic and sophisticated about markets as our Kitco bretheren, and others. So I figured that dollar cost averaging bullion during this bottom area would be "the people's" way to participate in the monster changes that would be coming, and a chance, perhaps a last chance, to accumulate some wonderful gold at good prices. I like to do nice things like that for my fellow man . The point is - while immaculate timing is nice, and we all try it, and derivatives and futures are spectacular when they go your way, and certainly fortunes can be built on shares bought at the right time, it is NOT NECESSARY to be a bull on gold and expect imminent appreciation. True, if you are retired and not earning income other than on investments, one is limited occasionally by what one has to work with. Keeping some dry powder is always smart. But my "advice" was ( and still is ) aimed at those of us who still work for a living and earn an income. Life DOES go on...I likened a steady bullion accumulation program for basic garden variety citizens to making their monthly payment on the family's gas-guzzling 4x4 that they need to take them to the wilds of the shopping mall every Saturday. This way you can be "right" over a long period of time, and as long as this bottom lasts, whether lower or higher, the better, actually. Only if you believe that gold has a future that the world does not see, expect, or conceive of. I do. So when I talk of gold in the thousands, let it be understood that this is a huge process underway. Therefore, this extended and depressing gold weakness is a heaven sent opportunity to acquire bullion, relatively painlessly, by the average person who is not a market timer, but merely wants to buy a permanent asset at an unusual period in its price history. I repeat again, even the average Kitcoite, when he or she talks of $400 or even $800 gold, is in the jungle standing in King Kong's
footprint, while looking for a monkey. I continue to admonish the faithful, now more than ever. Get Real ( all together now... ) ...Get Gold!

You say "Monetization not inflation" - but I say the INFLATION has ALREADY occurred. It has been a massive debt and credit inflation engineered to first rescue the commercial banks, and then exported to Asia and Latin America for their erstwhile financial "miracle" - a boom which is now busting. Now that the farm teams are losing games, can the deteriorating quality of the parent be far behind?

Inflation IS the creation of credit and financial media beyond the presence of specie ( gold and silver money ) to back it up. This is the pure and true and ONLY definition of Inflation. That means that a massive chronic systematic world wide inflation began in 1934, and has continued to this day, and is now expanding exponentially. The foundation of this inflation, currently, is massive debt. The disappearance of this debt would be a deflation of such consequence, that every effort will be made to prevent it if it threatens to snowball out of control. Read Reify's 01:31. The basic ploy of every government in a situation such as is threatening now, is to inflate, and this will come as a monetization of much of the credit expansion that has occurred in order to preserve a measure of the huge money-supply created that it represents. These instruments and accounts are measured in dollars, even if those dollars do not "exist" as dollars per se. The ONLY way to keep them from evaporating in a deflation is to counterract the deflationary forces with a bringing of those dollars into manifestation and circulation by monetization. God help every nation.

I agree with Mike Sheller in that deflation would make debt hard to pay. Americans are as addicted to debt as Clinton to sex. The government will not let massive defaults occur. This would be political suicide for those in Congress. Monetization of debt is the cowards way out, the way government will choose, to get out of having to blatently inflate while actually inflating. Paying debt or smoothing the road for easy credit is more easy to swallow than simply throwing money out there into the economy and admitting the dollar is roadkill. As big companies stumble big bucks will be required to keep them afloat. And big government is the answer. Then friends, big gold prices.

Here is a french joke I was recently told.
WJC and the catholic Pope happen to die on the same day.
An error is made by St.Peter: WJC is sent to paradise and the
Pope is sent to hell....The Pope calls St.Peter through mobil
phone, St.Peter is very confused and apologizes...
One hour later, the Pope is sent back to paradise and WJC is
snet back to hell. On their ways, they meet each other.
The Pope says to WJC: I am on my way to join the Holy Virgin
in paradise, so I am very happy. And WJC answers:
"Too late...."

Hi John. I always appreciate your posts. Regarding your RANY NAV estimate of .95 we really arent that far off except for a couple times.
http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangy.htm

Firstly, after several VERY short nights trying to get my website working right, I think Ive about overloaded the neurons crunching Excel spreadsheet formulas etc. After another check of all my figures ( including the ones early posted ) Ive come up with new, slightly lower numbers due to a spreadsheet formula error.

VALUE PER SHARE ( LOW ESTIMATE ) : $1.68
VALUE PER SHARE ( MID ESTIMATE ) : $2.24
VALUE PER SHARE ( BULLISH ESTIMATE ) : $3.08

And of course with gold trapped below 300 for quite a while and such bearish sentiment, the lower value would seem to be the most accurate.for now!

The only thing Id add to your figures is the agreement which is fairly recent:

"The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, June 27, 1998, edition that SouthernEra Resources will pay $16-million to buy out the rights to the Marsfontein diamond find in South Africa from joint venture partner Randgold & Exploration Co. The Post's Peter Kuitenbrouwer writes that the deal will close September 30, the company revealed in a material change report filed with the OSC last week."

Im assuming this $16 Million is CDN, so lets call it US $10 Million. This figure was not part of RANGYs latest numbers released. This would add 25 cents a share to your 95 cents. So now we are only 48 cents apart.

This all boils down to the extremely difficult task of placing an accurate value on RANGYS extensive Mineral Rights Package. I used the figure of $35 Million on this even though it was previously estimated at $85 Million, because it certainly wouldnt be valued the same with a low gold price.

Reported at 7 Million hectares, this is some 70,000 sq. km in your neighborhood. Much of this has been divided up to JV partners who are actively exploring the holdings. Heres an example from a recent email I received from RANGY.

The RTZ joint venture covers some 800,000 hectares ( 3088 sq. miles ) of mineral rights owned by Randgold. Systematic exploration has commenced..."
" ...encouraging results have been received and follow up exploration is taking place."

So at any rate, well north of a buck, possibly somewhere in the are of $1.50 a share, it is obvious that the market is temporarily overlooking RANGY. At 5/8 its a steal.

And like youve been saying, the key to this is really RR. Dewa mata.

I have spent some time reviewing the Claimstaker website and its potential for stock appreciation. At least on the surface, CLN looks to be poised for an up move. I do, however, have an important question to ask: Are you in any way associated with the management or as an employee or consultant to Claimstaker? I ask this question because your steadfast touting of CLN appears biased. Please inform me at WALN@WGF@aol.com. Thanks.

Sorry for posting the wrong web address. Try Waln2WGF@aol.com. Thanks.

Hey Mike Sheller & All-

$3K gold price- where from?

Well it's not that far fetched:-
a ) inflation over the years-who says there's no inflation?
a subway ride in NYC in the pre ww2 years was a nickel, and now?
b ) look at the prices of gold way back then and then multiply, or divide
from lows to highs- Suprised?
c ) try a 10 fold current price increase and lo and behold. And it could be greater, no?

nowadays, the strong seem to survive alright, but the unproductive are beginning to prosper...we're all ushered into a homogenous race that idolizes and follows those of big mouth. Weak in moral fiber, weak in conviction, taught little of the worth of being an individual...hesitant...worried of the reprisals for having your own mind and speaking it. Maybe the internet will turn this tide away......so.speak.up!@kitco and duck!

thank the lord I ran outta of limes last night....this detail saved my life. ;^ ) ~

( hiccup ) SO GO GOLDBUGS!!!!

About a year ago, I have presented on this forum a theory that powers that be, will do anything to prevent any market crashes in the US, at least till the fall of 1999 and than blame it on the Y2K and Y2K related fears.
Today I think that scenerio is even more plausible. There is strong evidence to suggest that there is an on going manipulation of the markets.
I believe that a global financial collapse prior to public's acceptance of the Y2K danger , would destroy public's faith and trust in powers that be. Their policies and theories would be dicredited for a long time.
The Y2K presents a convinient escape and a scapegoat for all national governments around the world. In late 1999 most people will be seriously concerned with the possible effects of the Y2K on their lives. The blame for severe economic problems can be assigned to Y2K, and desperated population will turn to current powerholders for salvation, will entrust them with the correction of the problem and with rebuilding of the markets and systems.
I didn't and don't claim that there is an international conspiracy.
I simply feel that a mixture of events and opportunities makes it enticingly attractive for governments to prevent any serious problems till late 1999.

A few trades for Monday;

Short - Dec SnP ( or E mini ) 1055 -1060, this position will look especially good if the snp gaps open above 1038 and keeps going to form a double top near 1060.

Buy - Dec Gold at 293 stop 290, short term Obj. 305

Buy - Dec. Silver 4.95 stop 4.90, short term obj. 525

I expect the XAU to move back into the 70's. this should be enough to get the PM's though resistance.

Good morning!I found out this morning that you have some astro knowledge.
Do you think you can help me precising a period ( or a day ) which correspond to the conjonction of my 3h04 post?
Thanks

thanks for the trades. studio.

I agree, a lot of prices have gone up. When I was a kid the Sunday mantinee was 25 cents, when my Dad was a kid, 10 cents. As soon as the US government stopped "manipulating" the butter market, the price of a pound of butter at the market doubled. While making ghee I remember thinking a few years ago "How can I stockpile butter at these prices?" It had never been so cheap, even when I was a kid. You can only stockpile so much of a perishable item tho, even if you purify it. One thing I like about gold--you can keep it anywhere for generations.
But then there is the money supply itself type of inflation, witness Russia in the last week: "We will print money." The world is definitely afloat in paper fiat currency. And also I think that the so called "devluations" of currency turn out to be quite price inflationary because suddently the price of items in the devalued currency country goes sky high. ( It takes a thousand times as many pennies to buy the bubble gum. )
That creates the unusual circumstances we see today where gold is produced in local currencies ( cost of production ) but then sold in US dollars. Its cheaper to produce gold in South Africa since it sells for the same price as we pay for it here. Same all over Southeast Asia--Indonesia for instance. It is a unique buying opportunity.
Over the next 50 years what do you think will happen? New methods of mining and producing gold could revolutinarize the industry of course. The sea is also full of gold. An example of new means and methods in medicine is the "harmonic" scalpel that cuts skin and organs not by cauterizing or sharp edge, but by sound alone. Would it not work for mining the earth? Still it seems logical that gold will retain its intrinsic value as money and a depositary of wealth, good insurance. Here's a verse from the Veda:

Flow Soma in a sweet and exhilarating stream effused for Indra to drink. The all beholding detroyer of darkness has stepped upon his gold-smitten birth place, united with the wooden cask. Be the lavish giver of wealth, most bounteous, sweet flavored. Bestow upon us the riches of the affluent. Bless on our return our four-footed and two-footed beings and let no harm come to anything of ours.

Wealth was considered in Vedic times to be the structure on which the future was built--Artha Veda, the means of preserving creation and ensuring progress. They say Krishna's apartment is solidly walled with gold, and that the egg which is center of the Unviverse as we experience it today was laid there by Brahma at the center of his wheel when he engendered time/space. Gold often is mentioned in the scriptures of all cultures. And justice and freedom as well--but nothing of the regulatory manipulations of governments and their printing of fiat currency. That seems to me to be only of an ephemeral nature. Perhaps the only downside of wealth preservation is that one must never a miser be--gold can be given, leased and traded and invested for world benefit more securely than can paper. I say also "Get gold," and sooner better. Regards.

http://knox-www.army.mil/center/threat/intelweb.htm

yes, sooner better than later.......why be on time when you can be early? yes, kudos for your post........bbl.

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=+%3Ch3%3EBoom+to+Bust

Hi goldy - I tried to email you at the address you left, but it was returned. I tried again with an adjustment, but here is what I emailed:

Dear Goldy88,

In response to your post at Kitco ( 03:04, Sep 20 ) I was somewhat confused
by your question. You ask when we can expect to have a "March in Aries:
conjunction joined to Saturn in '98" - I took that to mean MARS in Aries
conjuncting Saturn, which did occur on and around April 2 of this year ( '98 ) .

The Sun WAS in Aries at the time, in which it is exhalted, while the Moon
was heading into Cancer at the end of the day ( the 2nd ) .

Hope this helps out.

Best,

Mike

I have still to learn how to put spreadsheet charts into a format which can then be transmitted to Kitco. ( Hope to reach that level of computer competence before too long. The original spreadsheet format is of an acceptable size [27KB] but it appears Kitco cannot launch it. And when I copy it into a .jpg format, which I can do via my LWP Word Processor, Kitco rejects it. And although I could possibly send it as a .bmp or as an .msp file, the size of file [635KB] might block up Kitco for 20 minutes while it was being downloaded ) . So if any of you experts know what I should do...........

However, because I think the 16-year chart of the Dabchick Gold Index offers an historical insight as to the true relative value of gold over that period, I thought I should make it available as soon as possible. For anyone who wants to produce their own chart before I have one ready via Kitco, here are the necessary data. All figures are monthly averages, rounded to the nearest whole number.

Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

1982 | 100 | 098 | 088 | 094 | 089 | 086 | 093 | 101 | 122 | 119 | 118 | 126 |

1983 | 139 | 143 | 124 | 129 | 134 | 124 | 127 | 125 | 124 | 118 | 114 | 117 |

1984 | 111 | 116 | 118 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 107 | 109 | 110 | 112 | 114 | 109 |

1985 | 104 | 107 | 109 | 111 | 109 | 108 | 105 | 106 | 105 | 100 | 099 | 096 |

1986 | 102 | 096 | 096 | 094 | 093 | 093 | 093 | 099 | 109 | 110 | 104 | 101 |

1987 | 101 | 100 | 100 | 104 | 109 | 108 | 110 | 112 | 109 | 110 | 106 | 108 |

1988 | 106 | 099 | 098 | 099 | 099 | 100 | 101 | 101 | 097 | 093 | 093 | 092 |

1989 | 091 | 088 | 090 | 089 | 088 | 090 | 089 | 088 | 088 | 087 | 093 | 094 |

1990 | 093 | 095 | 091 | 087 | 084 | 080 | 080 | 085 | 083 | 078 | 078 | 078 |

1991 | 079 | 074 | 078 | 079 | 080 | 084 | 084 | 080 | 077 | 078 | 077 | 076 |

1992 | 074 | 076 | 076 | 074 | 073 | 072 | 072 | 069 | 070 | 072 | 074 | 074 |

1993 | 074 | 074 | 074 | 074 | 079 | 080 | 087 | 084 | 078 | 080 | 084 | 087 |

1994 | 088 | 086 | 086 | 084 | 084 | 084 | 082 | 081 | 082 | 081 | 081 | 081 |

1995 | 080 | 079 | 077 | 076 | 076 | 076 | 076 | 078 | 080 | 079 | 079 | 081 |

1996 | 084 | 086 | 084 | 084 | 084 | 083 | 082 | 082 | 082 | 082 | 081 | 080 |

1997 | 079 | 079 | 081 | 084 | 079 | 077 | 075 | 076 | 076 | 076 | 072 | 069 |

1998 | 070 | 071 | 072 | 075 | 073 | 073 | 073 | 072 |

I want to thank everyone for their encouraging comments about the value of an Index like this. We may be able to publicise the need for one in the Financial Press in due course. To Grant, Goldilocks, Gollum, Missing Link, Silverbaron, Strat, Chas and all you others ..........my sincere thanks. Also to SDRer, whose elegant reference to my bigger diving-bird cousin, the Grebe, made clear our readiness to dive into murky situations. ( Gollum .........did you hear me tapping on your submarine when I was diving one morning last week? I thought I had struck gold at first! ) . And for Oak...I hope I may perch on your sturdy branches while I peer down into the stream below, searching for golden nuggets.

A large part of the value of an awareness of the true value of gold lies in its ability to highlight the falsity of fiat currencies. For sparking off a very illuminating series of contributions on that topic, I want to thank Cowgirl for asking the question in the first place on 7th Sept. The ensuing discussion shone a lot of light where it is badly needed - thanks ( among others ) to GoldnBoy, BUGal, ERLE, Mozel , Private Investor, Allen ( USA ) and Nick/C [whose sense of humour is, like gold, much valued here]. And still more light was cast on 17th Sept when Lady_bug and Gwyz evoked further replies from Early Riser, MM, Panda, Preacher and Speed.

No mistake ......this discussion group contains a wealth of talent and experience, as this one topic alone has shown. Thanks Bart, for making it all possible. Now .......back to that computer reference book......

Inflation of money supply always comes first. Then comes inflation of prices.

We must all be like Arjuna, as Krishna instructs. We must follow both our duty and our dream. Lucky is the person to whom both are one.

Chas - I'm afraid I still have not got the lease rates chart we discussed ready for transmission to you. But if you go to the World Gold Council website and look up Research Study No 18 you can see a simple chart of Lease Rates going from Jan 1987 to Feb 98 on page 36 of the Study. I think that may have most of what you want.

Regards....Dabchick

Isure - thanks for the intel page, from there I went to Fort Knox and searched for gold. All I found was "gold acorn at the top and three green oak leaves" - the division crest. So from there I went to the history page and found this snippet: "In 1936 the U.S. Treasury Department began construction of the U.S. Bullion Depository. The Gold Vault opened in January 1937, and was just receiving its first shipments of the nation's gold reserves when the 7th Cavalry Brigade ( Mechanized ) rode to the aid of the beleaguered city of Louisville, struck by a major flood from the Ohio River. During the war the U.S. Bullion Depository continued to operate at Fort Knox,receiving more and more shipments of the country's gold reserves. The Gold Vault was also used to store and to safeguard the English crown jewels and the Magna Carta, along with the gold reserves of several of the countries of occupied Europe. On DEC 26, 1941, the Gold Vault also received the original documents of the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and the Declaration of Independence for safekeeping. These historic documents left Fort Knox on Oct 1, 1944, and were returned to Washington DC for public display."

Thats all folks, I gather that the gold probably left at the same time as our Constitution did....

If the file is being rejected on upload, you may be using a file name that already exists in the archive. That list of archived files can be read by clicking on "click here" ( in the red box ) while in the post composition window.

With the ongoing situation it seems to me that gold in headed up
To 300+, so go long gold, go short stocks you Gooooo Gold.

Perhaps it's only a question of semantics, but in order to avoid confusion it might be worthwhile to speak of expansion and contraction of money supply as opposed to inflation and deflation of wage/price levels.

When the Fed speaks of contolling inflation, they are speaking of prices levels.

Depending upon the amount and velocity of the money supply and the amount of goods and services being chased by that money, one can have falling prices together with contacting money supply or vice versa.

international business Russian problems stem from history

By Cynthia L. KemperInternational Business Consultant

Russia's recent economic and political collapse was not a surprise to those who have tracked the former Soviet Union's democratic reform process since the demise of communism in 1991. Russian scholars have been predicting trouble for years.

Jonathan Adelman, a professor and Russian specialist at the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies, recently shed some light on the longstanding complex issues at the heart Russia's current struggles. He begins with a look at the history of democracy in the United States.

"Most Americans automatically assume that our country has been democratic and capitalistic since 1781,'' begins Adelman. "But, reality was quite different. The development of a democracy was not really that smooth in the U.S. For almost 50 years - until the advent of Jacksonian democracy in 1828 - there was no true two-party system in the United States. And it was not until the 1870s - after the Civil War - that industrial capitalism came to predominate. Women couldn't vote until 1920, and Southern blacks didn't vote until 1964.''

"In other words, even in the United States, Canada and England, democracy and capitalism took a very long time to develop,'' he adds. "Russia's past experience is even less encouraging for those who envisioned a smooth transition to democracy.

"Understanding Russian history is critical here,'' Adelman continues. "For the last 750 years Russia has known only harsh, imperial, authoritarian politics driven by staterun enterprises and planning. So, previous to 1991, the Russian people had only limited understanding or experience of capitalistic foundations and democratic ideals.''

After 240 years of harsh Mongol rule ( 1240-1480 ) , which resulted in total isolation from the West, Russia emerged into more than 400 years of autocratic, Tsarist, imperial domination ( 1480-1917 ) . Tsarism was replaced by an even harsher and repressive Communist Soviet rule ( 1917-1991 ) , until it collapsed, forcing the former Soviet Union to transform itself in the image of the capitalistic, democratic model of the United States.

"As well, Russia's objective conditions were historically very different from ours,'' Adelman explains. "Before modern times, it was situated in a vast, relatively inhospitable land mass far from warm-water ports, surrounded by enemies who invaded from all quadrants ( Mongols, Tatars, Poles, Swedes, French and Germans ) , and geographically isolated from Western centers of civilization. Thus, Russia became an empire that expanded outward to provide protection for its people, creating a strong state that smashed a weak society. Few of the prerequisites for capitalism and democracy were ever present.''

"All of this makes it very difficult for Russia to adopt capitalism and democracy today - let alone nation building ( shedding 14 other independent nations ) . These differences also make it unrealistic to expect these processes to unfold successfully in only a decade,'' says Adelman. "Russia has none of the centuries of Western experience that we do in these areas. And yet, in the 1990s, it was expected to carry out this triple revolution all simultaneously while absorbing the loss of its empire and superpower status in the world as well.''

"So, Russia's attempt to implement democracy, capitalism and nationbuilding over the last decade has resulted in a very corrupt form of democracy in which former Communist "apparatchiks' like Yeltsin have painted themselves as democrats while maintaining very authoritarian tendencies,'' says Adelman. "Capitalism was achieved by a vast property grab of state assets by a small group ( perhaps 100,000 ) of largely former members of the Communist elite who seized state assets and privatized them in the early 1990s. They did not develop the economy as promised, but, bought luxury goods and sent their capital gains of nearly 100 billion dollars abroad for safe keeping.''

In Russia today, 40 percent of the population - primarily older and poorly educated people, peasants and blue-collar workers - still support the Communist party. They are angry at the new order - as they have not seen the results initially promised - and prefer the old ways, as communism is the only system they have ever known or trusted. http://www.denverpost.com/business/kemp0920.htm

The stock market crash is developing slightly slower than I
anticipated. Nonetheless, it is progressing. And a massive
collapse to DJIA 3000 isn't too far away.

The evidence:

1 ) Virtually every European and Asian market peaked on the
first trading day after the Lunar Eclipse on Sept. 6. That
validates the eclipse theory -- that most crashes start
within days of a Lunar Eclipse.

2 ) Most European and Asian market have dropped below their
early September mini-panic lows. This is the final confirmation
that their topping pattern is conplete. Those markets are
now in a free-fall. For example, the large British and
German markets have declined to new lows. The Japanese
market has registered a new 12 year low.

3 ) The US stock market is the lagared. It will eventually
succumb to the pressure in the global market. Option
expirations on Friday ( and last ) week usually has a positive
effect on stocks. The positive effect marginally outweighed
the negative effect from global markets. But watch out
below this week.

4 ) The global banking system ( as reported in Barron's ) lost
14% of their equity base in the past few weeks. There is
evidence that the losses are actually greater, but that many
banks are either covering up the losses, or have not yet
reported them. This has the same effect as massive Federal
Reserve credit tightening. New loans will be hard to come
by -- simply because banks don't have the capital to make them.

DJIA 3000 is coming. Buy S&P put options to profit from
this coming development.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Prices may be impacted by hurricane, from SI:

Hurricane Georges. I would never wish this hurricane to hit anybody, but the facts as of right now are interesting. I saw a
press release that said part of the 60 cent increase in oil prices on Friday was due to this hurricane's potential effect on AHC's oil
refinery in St. Croix Virgin Islands. This refinery is huge and does 500,000 barrels a day. Now, as I am watching the weather channel, the hurricane is a big bad category 4, and it looks to be tracking very close to St. Croix.
It is now 360 miles away traveling at 18-20 mph.

Sunday, September 20, 1998 Are You an Investor or a Gambler? Yes
By TOM PETRUNO
 In periods of trouble or uncertainty, a familiar and trusted face can serve to calm the masses and bring reason to a fractious debate.
So mutual fund kingpin Fidelity Investments' timing appears fortuitous in bringing Peter Lynch back into our homes via a new TV and print ad campaign.
Lynch, the white-haired investment legend who guided Fidelity's Magellan stock fund to spectacular returns in the 1980s--making the fund a household name, and making stock-fund investing in general respectable again--now stars in a TV ad in which he chastises investors who don't do their homework.
"Buying what's hot without doing your research isn't investing. It's gambling," Lynch scolds a character played by actress Lily Tomlin, after she asks for some hot tips.
That's a very traditional notion, of course--that investing and gambling are two different things. The implication is that if you religiously follow basic investing rules ( doing your homework, as Lynch instructs ) , you will inevitably succeed. The inverse implication is that the gambler cannot succeed in the long run.
But are gambling and investing really two separate disciplines?
I would make a case that in some very important ways they are one and the same--and that to think otherwise can be dangerous, especially at a time when the stock market is on the rocks after a nearly eight-year bull run.
Let's start with the dictionary definition of gambling ( courtesy of Webster's ) : "to take a risk in order to gain some advantage; an act or undertaking involving risk of loss."
Hmmmm. Does that describe stock investing? Certainly you're buying stocks in order to gain an advantage--a higher long-term return than you can get from other investments.
And certainly you're taking a risk in buying stocks, as the market's dive of the last few months has demonstrated in spades.
Many investors in individual stocks have seen their shares' value plunge by 40%, 50% or more since spring. If you were unfortunate enough to be a big buyer in the market just as it peaked, your losses so far--even if still just on paper--may exceed what someone drops in a typical excursion to Las Vegas.
Of course, investors who've suffered paper losses can argue that they're in it for the long haul, and that history shows the stock market does pay off if you can hang in for an extended period.
That is likely to be true in the future as well, because the stock market ultimately reflects the economy's growth. But there is no certainty there--not like the relative certainty of putting your money in a federally insured bank account that pays a specific rate of interest.
There have been long periods in which stocks, or at least certain groups of stocks, did not provide much of a payback at all. From 1965 through 1974, for example, the return on blue-chip stocks was negligible. The market bounced around, but it ended that 10-year period barely higher than it began.
Imagine how that felt to investors who in 1965 were planning for retirement 10 years away. Imagine that those investors did their research and concluded that the stock market was the only logical investment bet to make to ensure a decent nest egg 10 years later.
Were they investing? Yes. But they also were gambling--because the stock market isn't a sure thing. It's risky, and it may not pay off as you expect it to.
In the 1990s, at least until this summer, the stock market had begun to look as if it might have become a sure thing. Blue-chip stocks in recent years rose at a 30% annualized rate. Historically, they averaged an 11% annualized gain. Something was out of whack, but who asks questions when gold rains from the sky?
Now, amid the worst market decline since 1990--and for many individual stocks, the worst since 1987--many investors have been forced to consider the historical realities of the market: that you can lose a lot of money in a hurry, and that, once lost, it may never be recouped, depending on the individual security.
Does this sound too bearish? It's not meant to. There will always be money to be made in equities, unless the world as we know it is coming to an end. And the longer the time horizon you have, the greater the probability that you will profit from a diversified stock portfolio. That is indisputable.
But if you start by recognizing that stocks are ultimately gambles, you will be more likely to protect yourself by hedging that bet--via diversification into other assets besides stocks ( bonds, money market accounts, real estate ) and by understanding that money you absolutely cannot afford to lose doesn't belong in the stock market, period.
So is Lynch, who retired in 1990 from fund management at the young age of 46, wrong to make a distinction between stock investing and gambling?
I wouldn't argue with his principal point: that people need to spend much more time educating themselves about their investments and about markets in general. That should improve your odds of success, just as education and practice improve your odds of succeeding at almost anything else.
But in the end, stocks still are a gamble. The best research and strategizing can give you an edge, but ultimately blind luck may play a bigger role in the outcome than we'd all like to admit.

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/t000085622.html
Copyright 1998 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

http://www.intellicast.com/weather/usa/hurtrac/

Yes I fear you may be right although the problems IMHO will without doubt be very apparent by April 1999 ~ he louts in power like to keep the status Quo and consider only their A**S's .Whatever the outcome of financial collapse / Y2k respect will be in very short supply.

It rankles me that those without access to the webb have practically no knowledge whatsoever of the problems that lay ahead ( if we get vapourised at least they will have enjoyed the last 400+days ) .
Guess its human nature to think "it can't happen to me" and the pathetic politicians ,in the UK still battle over the "Bloody Euro ", Blair may wafle about the seriousness of y2k to the midland bank in march See yesterday FT Page 1, but his follow up skills are useless ~ maybe "our leaders" are too busy adding polish to their Drop the bomb Y2K speeches to care about anyone other than them selves.

Well keep going for converts and buy gold

cpo_uk

A brief dissertation on the essence of contrarianism and its application to the current situation with gold.

It must be understood that in order to achieve investment success, which is what most, if not all, at Kitco wish to do, one must "buy low" and "sell high." But how is this done? And to what degree does relativity of price and value influence this equation, this challenge?

There has been much discourse at this premier forum concerning the value of gold, its future value, and its value relative to currencies and shares of other investment vehicles. Is the price of gold, the question is in the end, low? My answer is yes. Can it go lower? Certainly this is possible. Can it go higher? Certainly this is possible as well. And, if one accepts my premise that gold is now LOW, then it WILL go higher...it MUST go higher. Now some here are saying, "Why MUST it go higher? Convince me!" I think I have made my case often enough that gold will go higher because there has been an ongoing massive and chronic inflation in America and the world since 1934 when all currencies were effectively stripped of their precious metal backing. Periodically, humanity seems to be able to precipitate stunning catastrophes which cry out for money to assuage their discomforts and pain. Be they wars, or financial panics, or social disturbances, the ready means to address these "normal" and recurring problems in recent decades has been through the creation of, or redistribution of, wealth to throw at the disturbing activity. Modern man seems less and less inclined, as the years go by, to examine the depths of the reasons why things happen the way they do ( except perhaps in the physical sciences ) . Certainly in Philosophy, Metaphysics, Art, Economics, and Politics, there is an evident bankruptcy of thought, and a total lack of substance. Never before has the pablum of mass thought droned in its soothing nothingness in these areas, to the degree that most civilized societies today are composed of millions of sleepwalking cultural zombies and philistines, mouthing whatever platitude is current, and barely understanding the simplest principles of the staggering physical technology they can buy easily at the nearest mall. We are very much entertained, but barely educated.

We have, as societies, and as a world society, expressed the sum of our valuation of things by investing in the things which make the most sense to us, and ignoring the things which make the least. Thus Coca Cola stock, or Dell Computer, or Intel, names so near and dear to our daily reality, thrive as investments as they are used and loved and respected by all. Gold in the meantime, except for those about to get married, or in need of patches for their teeth, is a relic of a bygone day. Archaic and adorning, but money? An investment? No, gold has been abandoned, not only by the general society, which at any time in history could be forgiveable, but deserted as well by many sophisticated investors. They are convinced that gold has been supplanted as a hedge against this or that by derivatives. They are sure that science will bring to the fore new and more efficient ways to extract the yellow metal from nature. They genuinely believe that mankind has such dominion over nature that there is no longer a need for a shiny bauble clawed from the earth crust to dictate the means by which we trade and the values we wish to give to things.

Even the goldbugs tremble at the nightmarish thought that all of these people are right. In the face of a seemingly inexorable logic of reasons why gold is finished, done, has had its day, even its staunchest supporters wonder now if they have done the right thing in taking a last stand with their precious metal. Their noble element. The market price of gold is now roughly at, or even below, for some producers, the cost of production. It is virtually impossible today, save instances of courage and largesse by individual investors, to acquire financing for operations even where rich deposits of gold are involved. I know whereof I speak. The past year has been an agony for myself and associates developing a wonderful placer claim in Alaska. We are literally "sitting on top of a gold mine" and none but the hardiest, most faithful of souls ( most of whom believe perhaps more in us - management - than gold itself ) are willing to invest. And to top it off, a friend who has ridden this stock market boom in the last few years through mutual funds tells my wife "Why are you guys still buying gold? The stock market is going up again!" This from a man whose family made a real estate fortune, and then blew it all by over leveraging at the top. Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in 3 generations - because the current generation has no cyclical evidence to tell them that things do not always stay the way they seem to be in this world. That things get high, and things get low, and you always want to step back now and then to see where they are now. And yes, where they may be now is a relative thing...but we must decide.

Given these circumstances, I would say - simply because I am not sophisticated enough to propound any other argument - that this all-pervading negative atmosphere surrounding and tainting gold is indicative that its price is LOW. Therefore it should be bought - as in "BUY LOW"...remember? Because if we buy when prices are low, as surely as day follows night, and Summer follows Winter and Spring, "HIGH" will come along. So if we are ever to buy gold, then High is not where we want to do it. It is LOW where we want to be. It is now.

http://www.execpc.com/~jfish/fff/aug95-f7.txt

Similar in its circumstances to the noble metal, Black gold has the bear sentiment, the oversupply and months of dunning price action. Yet the last few weeks it has been rising. Doesn't it look good for both golds in the future? Everyone of us uses Black Gold in some way everyday.

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/zdisplay.phtml?cbase=CO&cterm=A8

Everything you say in your 11:30 is very true. There are indeed so many factors involved in this equation. I rule out nothing as a potential. I acknowledge the danger of outright true deflation and severe contraction of the world's money supply, and/or decreased velocity, over-production of goods, globalization of services - all bringing about a drastic revaluation of resources, and to where they are put. Taken beyond a certain delicate degree, this could be severely contractionary, and though the eventual equilibrium acheived, when it is achieved, would be the foundation for a grand new cycle for several decades to come, it would be hell for the tenants of this planet while it went on. On the other hand, the financial structure may now be so aberrated and mutated that the addict can survive higher and higher doses of the drug, and spin on into merry delerium for another decade or so, in a final inflationary or stagflationary blast. Like Y2k, it may not be as bad as some people think, or , on the other hand, as easy. But it will be.
I have my opinions and intuitions, but I am far from a scientist in these matters. I always acknowledge that things can go in quite another direction that what I myself forsee. Indeed, they very often do.

I hope you're right that the POG will move up above $300. But $300 is an importan milestone in terms of the psychological factor. NOVICE investor will see 300/oz as a buying signal.

I think the CB's will maniuplutae the POG to force POG below $300/oz in the short term. However, Octover/Novemebr is just around the corner and I may be wrong.

Even if CB's have not reached their objective in accummulating all the gold they can below $300/oz, they cannot undermine the launching of the EURO on JAN/1/99.

LOOK FOR AU TO BE AROUND THE $325 level in January. That's my prediction and I hope I'm right....

Sunday, September 20, 1998: The Business Channel
Defector Tells Of Illegal Oil Trade

LONDON ( Reuters ) -- A former top aide of Saddam Hussein who defected earlier this year has given details of the Iraqi president's sanction-busting oil smuggling network, the British Sunday Telegraph
newspaper reported.
http://arol.arabia.com/content/business/9_98/defector20.9.98.shtml
***********************************************************
Sunday, September 20, 1998: The News Channel
Monica Mess Mars Mideast Peace

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM ( Reuters ) -- At other times U.S. President Bill Clinton would have used a Washington news conference to try to prod Israeli and Palestinian leaders into a long-overdue peace deal. Instead Clinton fielded questions last week about sex, lies and his affair with Monica Lewinsky while his special envoy Dennis Ross shuttled around the Middle East trying in vain to secure a breakthrough.
http://www.arabia.com/content/news/9_98/Monica-Mess.20.9.98.shtml

A decade as you say could be in the cards but no longer than that. in ten years, Baby Boomers will withdraw cash from investments such as mutual funds for their planned retirement. At that time, ( if it doesn't happen before or shortly ) we will see the biggest stock market crash of all time OR

INFLATION WILL BE BIG TIME and so I'm glad, I'n not into bonds.

Most likely sceanrio.....

WE'LL SEE BOTH A MARKET CRASH AND INFLATION...a double wammy!!!!

APH - much appreciate your trading posts - you are generating a lot of goodwill out there!

A thought I wanted to share. There are maybe thirteen Elliott formations and one of them is the correction which is a flat based triangle. I have long thought the 18 year correction in the gold price from 1980 is a "flat" and if that is the case then we have seen the bottom and it won't go below $277. I think that current sentiment and uncertainty supports this ( plus the mushrooming world economic uncertainties and the "death of the dollar" ) to make it a worthwhile bet. Although as always it is a matter of probabilities. Again, thanks for the posts, they are most instructive.

ALL: Haven't had much time to post recently. Three kids are exponentially more work than two - that plus a zillion other things keep me from posting more often. Anyway, I wanted to be sure to wish those who are Jewish - L'Shana Tovah Tikateivu for the High Holy Days that begin tonight. May the New Year be sweet for all Goldbugs!

Anyone know of a decent bank in Switzerland ( not involved in derivatives ) where one can walk in with USD 50.000, open a notice account that is essentially backed by gold with relative anonymity? Or just hire a safety deposit box and stash in a bit of gold for one's children. Just in case!!

Please post a telephone no and/or an address if possible.

Your trading advice is always appreciated. Market probably will bounce some next week if the "buy Rosh Hashona sell Yum Kipper" rule still applies. Also market internals improved greatly on Friday with Russell 2000 jumping 2%.

London Times reports today that Goldman Sachs may postpone their IPO.

I suspect the market will have a rip roaring rally after the anticipated October washout. Republicans should sweep the Novemeber elections. Much as I detest the GOP, this has got to be bullish for the markets. WJC is the best Democratic President the Republicans ever had.

I here Abby Cohen now bullish on energy stocks.

just threw 5 grand worth of gold into the harbor...I'm into futures...

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980921/banking/banking1.html

btw, Old Gold - what the heck is that "buy Rosh Hashona sell Yum Kipper" rule you're quoting? who ordered that?

It looks like a small rally will happen this week. perhaps a retest of $300?? But the low is NOT in and you should all look out below when this move is over.

Did someone say $325 by January??? That must be a typo. I'm sure you meant $225!

The bear is still alive! Supply is overwhelming demand by atleast 1000 tons this year! BELIEVE IT!!!!!

Thanks for your 11:29. I looked through the list of files and found it contained the four which I sent in yesterday but when I typed one into the window in the Red section, and went to preview, I got a note saying "can not open /inetpub/cgi-bin/discussion/filenot found_error.txt" The file I tried was one I had named 'Gold Lease Rates.htm'. It looks to me as if its source ( my Lotus123 spreadsheet ) may be the culprit.
Regards......Dabchick

Sounds like a job for the Grebe Patrol! {:- ) )

everywhere on the lawn...adult-hood is a setback...but as the good children that we are...we will let you stay if you smile...a demanding crew we be...but not like the operating system.....Mule Skinner Blues...

God Bless MR. Bill Monroe...yup...children everywhere...off to the lawn...

$225? Please, you're bumming me out! :- ) )

When do you think the bottom will be in? I know; It's a dangerous question to answer......

Have you tried zipping the file, then uploading to Kitco?
Also, are you using any special fonts that were not included in
the original installation of your Lotus 1-2-3?

RUSSIA

CENTRAL BANK TO PRINT MORE RUBLES

The Bank of Russia canceled ruble/dollar trading on 18 September after the ruble dropped for a fourth consecutive day. Bloomberg cited fears among traders that the Central Bank has already printed as much as 3 billion rubles ( $240 million ) to pay back wages and pensions to the military and that it will print even more to cover some Russian banks' losses on defaulted government debt.

On 17 September, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Shokhin told reporters that a controlled additional printing of money would not necessarily be harmful to the economy; however, excessive discussion of such an emission "may trigger inflation."

Meanwhile, some residents of the Udor district in Komi Republic are using potatoes rather than rubles to make payment on rent and utilities, according to ITAR- TASS. The current rate is 1 kilogram of potatoes for 2 rubles. JAC

GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR UNREST

President Yeltsin on 17 September ordered increased security measures in preparation for the national labor protest scheduled for 7 October.
According to AP, Yeltsin ordered Interior Minister Stepashin to set up additional mobile police squads. Stepashin told reporters that mass rioting will not take place.

He said that "we will meet leaders of movements and parties to talk to them before the event." On 15 September, Prime Minister Primakov held talks with union representatives to address their concerns in the hope of forestalling the planned labor action.

However, Russia's most radical labor leaders were excluded from the meeting, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported. JAC
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/fulltext.html

Here is a french joke I was recently told.
WJC and the catholic Pope happen to die on the same day.
An error is made by St.Peter: WJC is sent to paradise and the
Pope is sent to hell....The Pope calls St.Peter through mobil
phone, St.Peter is very confused and apologizes...
One hour later, the Pope is sent back to paradise and WJC is
sent back to hell. On their ways, they meet each other.
The Pope says to WJC: I am on my way to join the Holy Virgin
in paradise, so I am very happy. And WJC answers:
"Too late...."

Sincerely thank you for your precious answer.However,Is there any other day where Moon is conjoncting Saturn ( and not necessarily heading into Cancer as you precised ) :
Mars in Aries conjuncting Saturn & Saturn conjuncting the Moon &
Sun exhalted

Thanks

orfinance@yahoo.com

Earth...so shall a fantastic tale be spun...when and if you arrive...

the children will know you...like flash-bulbs in a stadium their eye-lids will flutter...the rush of them will invigorate...enliven...you...and after the first blush...

for the first time in your life as the shoes of horses skate across cobble stones...at that very instant...you will be absorbed by their pupils and the word teacher will be better understood...

11 in number they be...out to the lawn...palms touching...a thought of you from them...

I love this forum! Bulls and bears snorting their relative side of the great gold conundrum: will it rise or fall? Many of the posters know the technicals and fundamentals for the pretty yellow stuff and enlighten the rest of us regarding their findings. It is a beautiful thing to behold! After nine months of lurking and participating, I feel like I have completed course work for a MBA. Thanks for the instruction. But what about my thesis? I think I'll call it: "My Humble Prediction for the price of gold by January 1999."

The Elliot Wavists are looking for a short term up move, then a dive to purgatory. The fundamentalists are saying that gold has put in its bottom, coins and bullion are scarce, Christmas jewelry season is nearly upon us, DiWali commences in Indian next month, the greenback is flushing down the tubes along with other world currencies, stock markets are crashing, Russia is about to be Commie redux, Y2K approaches, commercials are decidedly net long the market, the advent of the Euro, mine closures and foreclosures, Clinton...enough said.

The POG will retest $300 US this week, correct back to around $288 - $292 by early October, then rocket through $300 resistance to $305-$310 before falling back to its new floor of $301-$302 for a while before regaining momentum. By the first half of January, 1999, our patience will be rewarded by seeing gold fluctuate between $320 and $330 with considerably more upside potential in the future. Gold nearly or above $400/oz before the turn of the millenium.

Sorry about the problems, but I'll use the numbers. Goldfevr is good at the COT/POG and Sharefin is good at charts and posting. I'll try them on doing a composite chart, dialing in these numbers. Again, many thanx for your work here, Charlie

I went back to do some DD and could not find my site for the co. ( CLN ) . Please send me the URL and I will call Monday. This amy help some sceptical attitudes. Many thanx, Charlie email if you prefer cdevoto@abts.net

From 6pak's recent post. It just bears repeating. This is why the Ruble is Rubble.


" On 17 September, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Shokhin told reporters that a
controlled additional printing of money would not necessarily be harmful to the economy;
however, excessive discussion of such an emission "may trigger inflation."

Kitco should be a Kollege Kourse. Your prognostication on gold sounds very plausible to me.

light the corners of my mind ...
For Nick ..
I lived there off and on for about 7 years .. Hackney
road .. Crafers in the hills .. and Carrinton St a
block from Victoria Park .. Floaters are not my cup of
pea soup .. but I remember the old pie cart.
There's a rumour going around that the boks beat
the Aussie at cricket in the commonwealth games ..
the aussies won everything else .. how did they miss
that one.
However .. the 200 strong RSA team was issued with
3000 condoms for the 2 week visit .. You wont believe
this .. THEY RAN OUT and came back for more.. didnt
win many medals but had a lot of fun.

All the experts and media state that the Communist support is among elderly pensioners. According to friend of mine who has worked there for three years, the Communists are the most popular party among the youth, especially those outside Moscow and St. Pete. He said he thought the Communist party recived 39% of the 18-25 vote in the 1996 election. I guess if the media says only old people like the Commies it looks less like our elite F'd up. The same people still say Clinton has a 65% approval rating.

.. does anyone REALLY believe that
70 per cent of Americans didnt want
videos of the Grand jury testimony
released..
.. One reporter said he had taken an
informal poll on the streets of
Washington DC and checked the result.
.. I think a street poll in DC MIGHT
be a tiny bit skewed in the direction
of Black Democratic voters .. which
could explain results like this..

NOW on C-Span, Blasting IMF, Ruben Greenspan etc.

HighRise

I have no college degree, no specialized training in any field except
communications. But I do read a lot. Some here are investing in gold,
gold stocks purely for the profit they hope to make. I do a little of
that myself. Others invest to protect themselves from what may or may
not be coming. I'm doing a lot more of that lately based on what I
believe could happen within the next year or 2. The following quote
from Greenspan a couple of years ago ( sorry if this has been posted
before ) at a congressional hearing sums up, at least to me, why every-
one should have at least some percentage of their holding in Gold.

"I do think there is a considerable amount of information about the
nature of a domestic currency from observing its price in terms of gold.
It is an issue which I think is relevant, and if you don't believe that,
you always have to ask the question why it is that central banks hold so
much gold which earns no interest and which costs them money to store.
The answer is obvious: they consider it of significant value, and, indeed, they consider it the ultimate means of payment, one which does
not require any form of endorsement. There is something out there that
is terrible important that the gold price is telling us. I think that
disregarding it is to fail to recognize certain crucial aspects of the
value of currencies."

p.s. In the book by Michael J. Kosares "The ABC's of Gold Investing"
He shows what happened in Dec. of 94 when the Mexican Peso was devalued.
In the first year following the devaluation, the peso fell from $.28 ( US )
to $.14 ( US ) . The gold price went immediately from 1,200 pesos per ounce
to 2,500 pesos per ounce. A 25% to 30% portfolio diversification into
gold would have recouped nearly everything lost in the peso & equities
market! Hindsight is always great after the fact. I believe brokerages
recommend ( if they recommend any percentage at all ) about 5% to 10%
currently.

If the current global events continue to worsen, does anyone here believe
our government will give us any warning at all before they drop the
hammer? I don't, thats why I'm in Gold. Am I concerned about gold
falling to $200 $250? Sure, I won't like it, but I'll gladly take a
30% loss on "25% to %30" of my total portfolio for the insurance against
losing a much larger amount in the current situation.

no more...no less...a privilege...truth...to be a friend for you makes gold shudder...value and worth...ignominous twins who know better...

the children ask...and rightly so...

this candle is special...it is the soul of Sheller, M.

this flame is eternal...never Diminished...

throughout the history that is me...

others look to the heavens...I realize I am immersed in a dream and this foible within the clarity of it's...sort of like a nose searching for the edge of a balloon...squeak...from the inside out...

300lbs of mutt...mind and muscle...

All that is Sheller...now I shall teach the littles to see between the stars and understand the fabric that is YOU...

scares me..
seeing the knock that the asian
demand figures are taking generally,
a big fall in gold demand wouldnt be
that surprising.
Never trust concensus forecasting ..
it's the worst kind... the more guys
agree on a forecast .. the less likely
it is that it will transpire..
I was in Arabia in 1981 when the majors
were forecasting 70 dollar oil in 5 years.
I didnt go for it as demand was obviously
collapsing .. . 18 years later they are
forecasting 12 - $16 .
This situation has a familiar ring to
it.

By Blake Joyner September 17, 1998


The Death of Pax Americana and Globalism

and the Great Crash of '98



"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time...

When something holds good for two thousand years,

I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice

or mistaken theory.'

Bernard Baruch



Take a picture. Remember these days. Save a few Wall Street Journals or Barron's. Because years from now, your children or grandchildren will ask you about the days when it all ended, when Pax Americana and Globalism topticked, when the greatest crash of our lifetime wiped out hundreds of millions of investors around the world, and tens of millions of Americans. When the unrivaled hegemony of Anglo-Saxon capitalism and culture lost its supremacy around the world. When white trash from Arkansas disgraced the Presidency, and only a minority bothered to care. When America's great humiliation began.

Although Wall Street and Washington are loathe to admit it, we are in the midst of what will come to be known in coming years as the "Great Crash of 98". For many Americans it will be the financial epiphany of their lives. They will remember these days as our grandfathers remembered the Crash of 1929 and our fathers the great bear market of the 1970's. The world as we know it is about to be turned upside down.

These are strong words, I do not speak them lightly, or without much trepidation of being labeled a crank. But the evidence is so overwhelming, the ramifications so profound, and the potential solution I offer, so time tested, that the risks of outspokenness must be taken. After all, in the "Illiad" Cassandra was ridiculed for being a "gloom and doomer", but was unfortunately proven right in the end. I hope it does me more good than it did her!

Although we will call it the Great Crash of 98 in the years to come, the reality is that it started last year when the Thai Baht crashed. Soon the rest of Asia followed, in what Marc Faber ( one of the very few who predicted it ) called the greatest and fastest decimation of wealth in history. Asia is not in a recession, it is in a Depression with a capital D. A scenario very similar to the 30's seems to be playing itself out in Asia, and that scenario is spreading to the rest of the world.

With the collapse of Asia came the crash in commodity prices, with the CRB setting 20 year lows. The commodity crash meant the spreading of the financial virus to commodity-producing countries around the world. The economic devastation spread to the farm belt in the U.S., where the crisis is the worst in 20 years. Russia collapsed largely because of falling commodity prices. Venezuela and the rest of South America are on the brink of financial panic stemming largely from collapsing commodity prices. Commodity based Canada and Mexico face severe downturns. Amazingly, there are many who cheer this decline of commodity prices because they think it means lower inflation and interest rates. Another example of the old saying of "be careful what you wish for, you may just get it".

Throughout 1998, this financial AIDS has been spreading through the U.S. stock market. Many of the Russell 2000 stocks are in severe bear markets, but until August the 1998 version of the Nifty Fifty had obscured it. The Russian panic shattered that illusion, with bank stocks losing an estimated $500 billion in market capitalization over the last month. This is just the beginning.

Conventional wisdom is predicting a short bear market, like we had in 1987, clean out the excesses, then, it's onwards and upwards. They're wrong, this downturn is going to be like the 30's or the 70's, very painful and drawn-out.

Enough of the prelude. The purpose of this piece is to explain some of the enormous financial and political changes coming, and how gold and gold shares may help protect investors from the crisis that is upon us.

There have been two great equity bear markets this century; the first started in 1929 and lasted through the early 30's, and the 1973-74 bear market which really lasted throughout the 70's if one factors in the inflation rate. The 30's bear market was a deflationary collapse, while the 70's market was caused by the early stages of double digit inflation. During both of these bear markets, when fortunes disappeared and fear reigned, gold and gold shares soared. History is about to repeat, 1998 is the beginning of the third great equity bear market of this century, and gold and gold shares have just begun their third great bull market.

Gold, and the companies that mine it, are like volcanoes. Most of the time they are dormant, boring, and a waste of time and capital. During the fat years of prosperity, gold is at best considered a quaint anachronism, jewelry for the nouv au riche; at worst, it is ridiculed, and its owners subject to derision. Gold is the flip side of the equity market. When equities are good, gold is bad. When equities are bad, gold is strong. Equities have been great investments for approximately 80 years this century, and a horrible investment for 20 years.

Gold has been a poor investment for 80 years and an exceptional investment for 20 years. If historic trends prevail, gold and gold shares should be very good investments for five or ten years.

Gold and gold shares are only worth owning during times of financial distress like the 30's and 70's. Investors only want gold badly when every thing else is going to hell, and then they want it very badly. It's a metaphysical thing, comparable to an alcoholic in the depths of his despair finding the Lord. Ask someone who has lost all his money if he has prayed or not, chances are he has. People will flock to gold during time of distress because they always have. As per the introductory Baruch quote listed above, it's instinctive and it's got a track record. Nobody but a few cranks love gold, but investor masses will flock to it because they are terrified of everything else. For the last 15 years the world has been very accommodating to capital. A world increasingly unfriendly to capital is a world friendly to gold.

One by one, the investment alternatives to gold are falling like dominoes.

l.The Derivative Market

Gold has been considered insurance for centuries. When Wall Street started creating derivatives to insure investors against all conceivable risks, the need for gold was diminished. Gold was seen as an anachronism; paper ruled. The startling collapse of bank and brokerage shares cannot be attributed to a few billion dollars in Russian losses alone; the market could be smelling systemic derivative problems. As in Asia and South America, this is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Credit contraction driving prices down, falling prices force additional cutbacks in lending: a vicious circle. This is the deflationary nightmare that Japan has gone through for nine years, bankers are afraid to lend, people are afraid to borrow. Expect a dramatic tightening of lending standards to hedge funds and other derivative businesses. Derivatives are based on confidence and trust, and increasingly, trust and confidence will disappear. Bull markets in gold are predicated on fear and a lack of trust. Why? Because only gold cannot default. 

2.The Dollar

The dollar has been taking market share away from gold as the world's premier reserve currency for decades. Years ago, America thought it would be wise to have a dollar standard instead of gold standards for emerging market.countries. Our rationale for this was simple: during times of huge budget deficits, the dollar standard provided a source of cheap lending to the U.S. government. The climatic blowoff of this phenomenon can be seen in the widely publicized dumping of gold by central banks over the last year. The strength of the dollar resulted from a number of factors; Pax Americana military, cultural, and financial clout. The dollar's power and influence will never again reach its current stature in our lifetime.

With the exception of Western Europe, the vast majority of the world's economy is based on a de facto dollar standard. Alan Greenspan is widely thought to be not merely the head of the Fed, but the world's central banker. As the emerging market's are finding out, this is an illusion. There is an inherent conflict between these two roles for Greenspan. He had to choose which was his priority, the world economy or the American economy. America the Empire or America the Republic? If the world's economy was the priority, he should have eased dramatically. Instead, he has allowed an inverted yield curve. He sacrificed the Asians, South Americans, and every one else dumb enough to believe him, to make sure that some working stiff at Walmart wouldn't get a 5% raise.

His sacrifice of hundreds of millions of people on the altar of American inflation fears is comparable to the hubris and arrogance shown by the last great world power: Great Britain toward its vassal states. Remember Churchill sending the Aussies to certain death at Gailipolli? After all they're just colonials. Rather than lower interest rates and the dollar to help the emerging markets, Greenspan, Rubin, and the IMF are demanding double digit interest rates from countries in a depression. Such remedies are the recipe for wars, not economic growth. Emerging markets should have known that when push came to shove, they were just economic cannon fodder for the U.S. Remember De Gaulle's reason for pulling out of NATO and building up France's nuclear and conventional power, he didn't think America could be relied upon to sacrifice its own interests for those of its allies. Adapting this nationalist train of thought to currencies, DeGaulle became a major gold bug. "Any workable and acceptable international monetary system must not bear the stamp or control of any country in particular. Truly, it is hard to imagine any other standard other than gold." Nationalism and Regionalism will replace Globalism and Pax Americana. Globalism was bullish for equities. Nationalism is bullish for gold.

One of the inevitable results of this breakdown of trust between the U.S. and its vassal states on a dollar standard will be a rise in nationalism and xenophobia. Malaysia's Prime Minister blames Jews and speculators for his crisis, and implements currency controls. Russia's collapse costs its reforming Prime Minister his job, he's replaced by a former KGB agent who despises us, and wants to return to state control of the economy. Nature abhors a vacuum, the demise of Pax Americana and Globalism could bring chaos with it.

Of the emerging markets, India has survived the deflationary deluge with the least damage. It is no coincidence that India has been the least receptive to Pax Americana and Globalism. Their government made statements last week saying how foolish it was to rely upon the dollar as the sole conduit of world trade. They set off nuclear tests a few months ago because they know that the U.S. would sacrifice them to please the Chinese. They are the coming model for the emerging markets around the world. They are also big gold bugs.

The demise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is a long term phenomenon. Of critical importance in the short term is the disappearance of dollar strength in a flight to quality scenario. Despite the Russian collapse, the tremors in South America, and the cijt in Japanese rates, the dollar has dropped sharply in the last few weeks. The decline in the dollar has corresponded with a rise in gold. This is largely due to the foreign perception of the scandal in Washington. They rightly fear that this potential impeachment will sap the attention and willpower of the U.S. during the greatest economic crisis in 70 years. Could foreigners be seeing Clinton's potential impeachment as America's version of the Dreyfus trial? A trial that puts the very soul of America in the docket? A trial that transfixes America while in Soros's phrase, "global capitalism comes apart at the seams". No wonder they're selling the dollar! Gold will be the beneficiary of these dollar woes.

3.Treasury Bills

One of the raps against gold during periods of optimism is that it doesn't pay interest compared to other supposedly risk free investments. If this is a deflationary environment like the 30's, TBill rates will drop like a rock. Japan is the leading indicator of this trend. The lower T Bill rates drop, the more attractive non-interest paying gold becomes. Contrary to popular belief, deflation is bullish for gold. With the desperate reflation attempts we expect worldwide, the opportunity cost of owning gold is going to fall dramatically.

4.Equities

So far the only panic on Wall Street has been by the professionals, while retail investors are praised by the media for thinking long term. I think that time will show that in 1998 "he who panicked first, panicked best". We have just seen the third great bull market in equities this century, the prior two being the 20's and the 60's. Every equity bubble must be followed by a bust. The previous two were. Why should this bull market be any different? Low interest rates and inflation will not save the stock market. Ask the Japanese. America's economy is not an island, as the bulls would have you believe. The worldwide deflation and loss of wealth caused by the drop in the markets will combine to tank corporate earnings. The bubble will turn to rubble. By the time this bear market runs its course, retail investors will have the same contempt for equities that their ancestors did in the 30's and 70's.

5.Alan Greenspan

Financial markets revolve around faith, confidence, and trust. More than any other single man Alan Greenspan is the leader of the New Era, even if he denies it. Faith in Greenspan gave Americans the confidence to take their ill-fated flyer on Clinton. Greenspan's hubris allowed him to encourage the replacement of gold by the dollar, when he knew that America would never sacrifice its parochial interests for those of the world. Time will show that Greenspan was a god with clay feet. Instead of raising rates a couple of years ago to head off the looming stock market bubble, he jawboned. Now instead of lowering rates to stave off a looming financial panic he allows an inverted yield curve. If he were a stock I'd short him. In his younger days, as a follower of Ayn Rand, he promoted gold as the ultimate currency. In the 60's, he laughed at those who thought they could predict the economic future better than gold. Thirty years later, like an aging King Lear, he discounts gold, and thinks that his number crunchers at the Fed can fine tune the world. His ignoring of the reasons for, and the ramifications of the collapse of commodity prices has brought us to the brink of the abyss. His rapid decline in stature, along with Clinton's, will mean a massive loss of confidence in America just when the world needs her most. He and Clinton could be the Herbert Hoover and the Andrew Mellon of this generation.

6.The Yen

I doubt that the yen will be a very attractive alternative to a crashing dollar. 1/4% interest rates, bad demographics, and the lack of courage to solve their banking crisis will combine to discourage foreign investors from moving capital to Japan. The Japanese have lost their nerve, their animal spirits. That's what depressions do to you, they grind you down relentlessly, day after day after day. Eventually the Japanese government will print money like wallpaper to try and jump start the economy. As the largest savers in the world, the Japanese investors are a huge source of potential demand for gold. Once they lose faith in the U.S. government, as they have lost faith in their own government, they should become big gold bugs.

7.The Deutschmark

Will investors flock to the traditionally hard money mark knowing that the willpower to keep it strong will soon be diluted by the needs of the soft currency Italians, Spaniards, and Irish? Will the world's investors seek out a country with a 1960's economy, that lies next to Russia, a nuclear disaster waiting to happen?

On the other hand, the deflationary tidal wave engulfing the world economy probably means the end of EMU for the same reasons that the dollar block is breaking up. The EMU is one those ideas that sound good during a "New Era" boom. I doubt it will survive the deflationary tidal wave heading for Europe. The resulting chaos from a breakup of EMU would be immensely bullish for gold and for the mark.



The Gold Share Strategies

Like John Wayne and the cavalry riding to the rescue of embattled settlers in the westerns, this financial AIDS has arrived just in time to save many gold shares from the abyss. The across-the- board ( with the exception of silver ) collapse in commodity prices has brought gold shares to their knees. Most blue chip gold shares dropped 70% from their 1996 highs, while the second and third tier companies are down 90-95% from their bull market highs. Until three weeks ago, most of the tertiary gold shares were priced for bankruptcy. If we are right about gold breaking out, small gold shares offer the risktreward opportunity of a lifetime. At the risk of seeming outrageous, I would not be surprised to see gold shares rise 15-20 times if gold hits $500 an ounce in the next couple of years.

If tertiary gold shares offer extraordinary reward potential right now, they also carry a large amount of risk. If we are wrong about the timing of the gold bull market some of these companies could disappear. Additional risk comes from the danger of dilution caused by equity raisings at low share prices by desperate companies.

 Institutional investors desiring greater liquidity and higher quality companies should stick with the largest 1 0 gold miners. Their upside leverage is probably 30-50% of the juniors, but with substantially less risk. One additional caveat; if possible, stick with companies with as little exposure to the gold derivative market as possible. If I am right about the earthquakes coming in the derivative market, the gold and gold share market could also be adversely affected. These potential convulsions would be very bullish for gold, but could be bearish for gold miners with large forward sales.

Now a few words about central bank sales of gold, and their effects on the gold price. As I show on the accompanying chart, we are at the third so called New Era this century. Each bull market carries with it an aura of invincibility that "this time it's different". That in this era, we are smart enough and technologically advanced enough to conquer the business cycle and all those other maladies of an earlier inferior age. Each New Era brings with it an antipathy towards gold as being backward and inefficient. The inevitable, bifter hangover from each of these New Eras brings a renewed faith in the raison d'etre for gold.

 During the first New Era in the 20's, John Maynard Keynes called gold a "barbarous relic". Five years later gold was vindicated. As the accompanying shows, gold shares saved a lot of people from the ravages of the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. In the second New Era during the late 60's, LBJ and Nixon though that America had repudiated mathematics and could have a Guns and Butter fiscal policy, financed by a syncopathic Fed. Eventually Nixon eliminated the last link to gold saying "We're all Keynesians now". This hubris was shown to be folly in the next few years when gold prices soared. Now even the supposedly prudent and trend resistant central bankers have bought the bear case on gold.

Over the last five years, a new facet in the latest New Era war on gold has arisen; commission hungry brokers. Bullion dealers, primarily based in London, have waged an intellectual war on the raison detre for gold. They have informed central bankers that gold does not pay interest. Duh! So they have convinced many bankers to sell their gold or lend their gold to the bankers, who in turn lend it to someone else who sells it. Thus, the birth of a huge derivative market in gold.

The bullion bankers are in many ways comparable to urban real estate brokers in the 60's, who developed sales strategies called "blockbusting" in their never ending search for commissions. These real estate brokers would move a black family into a block which had previously been exclusively white, then they began a whispering campaign informing worried white homeowners that soon the neighborhood would be black, with its concomitant rising crime and failing home values. If successful, blockbusting resulted in mass white flight, which meant major commissions for the brokers.

The blockbusting game in the gold market is being played for big stakes. Central banks own hundreds of billions of dollars of gold, enough to make any broker's mouth salivate. The brokers will do anything they can to discredit gold, they must create a "beggar thy neighbor" fear in the minds of weak thinking central bankers. "Sell now, before another bank does and drives the price down further."

As the number of credible investment alternatives to gold contracts, the bear case against gold in the eyes of central bankers will shrink as well. Eventually, all it will take is a few large buy tickets from someone like Soros or an Asian central bank and gold prices will breakout like the gold shares have done in the last few weeks. The handwriting seems to be on the wall.

In all due honesty, I hope I am wrong about the forecasts made in this piece. As all professional investors know, investing is a matter of probabilities and risk/reward ratios. Of qualitative as well as quantitative analysis. Right now, I place the odds of the scenario described in this paper at 40% or higher, a year ago I put that number at 5%. Maybe history will not repeat itself. Maybe this time it is different, and Americans will dodge the deflationary bullet, but I wouldn't bet that way without a healthy dose of investment insurance. I strongly recommend that you consider gold shares as that insurance, they've stood the test of time. I would be happy to discuss practical ways of creating that insurance for you. If my fears turn out to be unfounded, and Goldilocks returns, the commodities should be ready for a good rally. I want to stress that the risk/reward on the long side of gold and old shares may be the best of our lifetime.

Blake Joyner specializes in gold and silver mining shares for high net worth individuals and institutions for First Albany Corporation in Chicago. He can be reached at 888 879 7730 or 312 879 7738.

If you believe so,when..Lets all go on the record. If he does resign what will gold and the Dow do in reaction? John Disney..anyone!

You made a very important statement here- " one which does not require any form of endorsement". The quality of this acceptance goes "beyond the foreseeable future". That last phrase has more importance than any other in relation to gold.. The reason that Gresham's Law holds is that there is some apprehension re the foreseeable future for any "money" that is being spent as fast as possible. You have some very good numerical appraisals of the POG in your post. I noticed your questions re CLN. I am going to call the co. Monday and do some DD. If you have some pertinent questions, let me know and I'll do my best to get answers. If you prefer, my email is cdevoto@abts.net

Enjoyed your posts as well of the many others who make this site so interesting and informative.
I checked the fed's data in Barron's --The fed printed 962 mil. in the latest week.Looks like the Russians are pulling a "monkey see... monkey do"
I figured the price of spuds in cents per lb. About the same price we pay in this country.IMHO

It's worth a read though. His commentary about the Gold Derivative Market and "Blockbusting" is very interesting. It reminded me of "ANOTHER". Speaking of "ANOTHER", there havn't been any new posts over on USA Gold. If there are no more posts, I might begin to really wonder if ANOTHER was in fact that Saudi Prince on the Swiss Air flight that went down.

palms up...11 x 2 wish you a happy day...gulps and puffs from the Island that is Long...the children await your imprints in the snow...the hearth is lit...Delphi...you are from far away...tell us stories...

I have placed a $5.00 wager ( Canadian Funds ) that he will resign by the end of October on the belief that he is only humun and has limitations as to how much public and media presure he can take.
My betting intentions have nothing to do with whether I think he should or shouldn't resign.

Regards

Rolly

Now they are discussing the Gold standard.
R. Texas
"Fiat currencies" vs "Real Value" discussion on the subject being limited. AG "value to Gold Standard"

HighRise

They are " simulating the Gold standard" - AG

What ever that means?

HighRise

William Jefferson Clinton is garbage...any comment you make or induce is based on garbage...

gulp and puff to ya from the Island that is Long...

and one more thing kid...the horror of hypocrisy is the mirror...

Impeachment of Billy Goat and global instability in markets and governments may drive investors out of paper and into PMs during late 1998 and early 1999. But by late 1999 panic may drive hoarding of food & survival supplies.
What I failed to consider is the risk of Gold sales by individuals and governments in late 1999 and 2000 to finance purchases of critical survival supplies and repairs to infrastructures and possibly buying of war materiel. In such a worst case scenario Gold will be valued only as a means to buy what is really needed. It will be hoarded only by those who, because they have basic needs met, can afford the luxury of buying Gold.

Gore will not allow him to resign till after Jan. 20th. Otherwise, Gore will not be able to run for two terms. And, Gore has control of the pardon.

The Democrats will stall and the Republicans will push Clinton to the wall.

IMHO

HighRise

Just wanted to throw this out there because I've heard it said incorrectly on so many occasions - a "strong" or "weak" dollar makes no difference to anything. An "increasingly stronger" or "increasingly weaker" dollar makes all the difference in the world. The dollar doesn't have a set "value" except what it's value is assumed to be. Whether one dollar buys a bag of cheezy poofs or a hand full of garnets is of little concern. Nobody cares that the Yen is at 147 or 130 or 100, we only care what direction it is moving in. If a currency sits at a certain value for long enough, that value becomes the new "true value" of the currency, it all eventually shakes out. The proof is in the American buck - it used to buy tons more than it does now, but so what, now you just have tons more of them in your pocket, it doesn't affect anything in the long term, and it wouldn't affect anything if the trend were reversed. It's the change and it's velocity that matter. Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled programming-

I received this e-mail a few minutes ago.

"A cultist is one who has a strong belief in the Bible and the Second Coming of Christ; who frequently attends Bible's studies; who has a
high level of financial giving to a Christian cause; who home schools for their children; who has accumulated survival foods and has a strong belief in the Second Amendment; and who distrust big government. Any of these may qualify [a person as a cultist] but certaintly more than one [of these] would cause us to look at this person as a threat, and his family as being in a risk situation that qualified for government
interference."

- Janet Reno, Interview on 60 Minutes, June 26, 1994

Interestingly Scary,

HighRise

Recently the L.A. Times took a poll which showed Clinton to have a
66% approval rating. Somebody decided to take a close look at the
"random" sample they used. The breakdown was as follows: 58% of the
respondents were women and 48% were Democrats. 42% were men and 31%
Republicans. Does anybody think this is a fair sample? Everybody
knows that the population as a whole is 49% male and the two major
parties are about even in registration. Women are among Clinton's
biggest supporters.

The intricateness of US politics has never been my forte. However, my knowledge in this area is quickly increasing due to the amount of time I spend on this site probing the insights of others. This site is truly unbelievable.
Perhaps I'll have to go double or nothing on a January 31 deadline?

Regards

Rolly

wages

As a regular lurker at this website I would like to express
an opinion on the price of gold. Many people would consider
market prices as opposed to theoretical prices to be correct.
And in the minds of commodity traders may be they are.
However think about what this implies about deflation.
We have a theoretical gold price between 2800 to 3400 U.S.
dollars based on a Global M1 money supply in American dollars
on one hand.

And a market price of 280 to 300 U.S. dollars on the other,
if the global U.S. dollar M1 money supply is brought in to balance
with the current market price of gold then we must experience a
severe collapse of the money supply in order to have sound money.
This would mean severe global deflation and chaos.
Even the current market price of silver is a powerful indicator of
impending deflationary collapse. In my opinion an across the board
drop to 10 to 5 cents on the dollar level of prices,wages and
investment capital is possible in such a situation.

Do we really want to have this sort of event or do we wish to validate
the current global money supply by allowing precious metal prices to
rise to their theoretical prices based on supply of metal and the
global U.S. M1 money supply?

I would be interested to find out what others have to say about this
issue.

Best regards

King Steven

of 9:57 yesterday. Sorry I didn't get to see it at the time as after my own post a few minutes before yours, I had to run do other stuff and only got back on Kitco now. But I do very much appreciate your kindness in sharing that information - very helpful.

Wages are going through the roof where I am.
This past week, I was informed that Graduate Architects are now making 80-90% more now then they were three years ago. Remenber, that in most cases they have had no training at all. Same goes for carpenters and all construction trades.

I saw a note in a Wendys today, $5.95 to $8.95/hour. We have a new store in the area that can't open their doors because they can't find people to work.

I was told by a client last week, that a friend of his in computer training, Yr2K, lost a person when they he/she was offered a $50K raise in salary.

If interest rate are lowered we are going to be labor stressed more than ever.

However, with all of that said, I have been around long enough to remember times when this can change almost over night.

HighRise

Probably never do this again *grin*, but I'd like to apologize in advance to all the "baby boomers" who will be retiring in the coming decade or two. Just watched the President on television talking about Social Security and how important it is for keeping the older generation out of poverty, how important it is that it be fixed now and not later. I've also seen over and over again the stresses on the current work force, that there are not enough people to fill all the jobs that need to be done, etc. So I just want to apologize now to all the folks who are in the baby boom generation for the hardships they are likely to suffer in the future. I'm 29 right now, and there are only so many people my age in this country, and we will not be able to support you. I would love to think that we will be able to, but there just aren't enough of us to maintain your standard of living, there just isn't any way for us to do it. So again, I do apologize, I know it will give you little comfort in the future. It's not that we are bad people, or that something is wrong with us, it's just a question of numbers. We will try out best. You thought your parents were a burden on you, but you have no idea the burden you will be on us.

but very interesting post

Jan 20, 1999 is a very important date for Gore. If Clinton resigns before then, Gore can only serve one full term. If Gore takes office after Jan 20, he can serve out that term and serve two more terms.

thanks for burdening me with SSGS - Social Security Guilt Syndrome.

That's OK, the boomers will just have to work longer.

Let's see, you are 29 and a boomer is 50, if the boomer works to the retirement age of 65 you will be 54.

I am afraid that you may be the one who finds that there is no money left for retirement.

By the way how does the loss of Chrysler figure into the whole scheme of things. Chrysler is now a German company. What happens if the new German Co, decides not to honor old US Chrysler's labor and pension commitments. Are the profits German or US, etc. etc.

At this rate, if Soros and the boys get their way there will be a new world order by the time you retire.

From the FWIWD

HighRise

Apology was tongue-in-cheek of course *wink wink*, but the humor of it is based at least in part on the reality of the situation, it has the potential to be a serious problem. Hopefully we can come up with a solution to it. It would seem, however, that "wealth" is based on the number of people who are actively working in society. Difficult, and I don't see any "magic bullet" fixes.

I hereby predict that the grub in the White House will call it quits on October 15, 1998. I think that after the depositions are made current many who walked with him will take divergent paths thereafter, thus leaving his belly unprotected and Congress will stomp him like a roach.

What type of political uncertainties do you want in the political
arena, gold will skyrocket next week. Look for as much as 8 to
10 points before a small run back south of the border. Dow down
over 1500...by End of next!

I doubt that will resign, unless it is at the behest of a sqaud of Marines entering the White House. All that Klintock can see, is himself. Perhaps Teddy ( hiccup, mumbles ) Kennedy will be leading those Marines at the behest of some Demorat wannabe presidential hopefuls? After Klinton comes the fall of AlGore. Then the DemoRats will be saying that great line from Casablanca, "I'm shocked! Shocked that gambling has been going on here! ( A waiter comes along, carrying something, and says... ) Here are your winnings..."

People that know what the price of gold is going to be, and what the Dow is going to do would really not have much time to be sitting around posting messages on Kitco.
I have made a note of your posting and predict you are completely wrong.

have 'nothing' to gain by letting Klintock twist in the wind. :- ) )

Do the right thing. Do what's right for the Republic. Impeach William Jefferson Clinton now. There is more than ample evidence. Then give AlGore a look over. After all, he is complicit in WJC's games. Restore some measure of faith in the Constitutional process! Get rid of this poll driven insanity! Right is right and wrong is wrong. A law broken is a law broken. It's a one or a zero, there is no in between.

that about five years or so ago, before Japans current prostrate state was evident, someone ( wish I could remember who ) made a very wise statement. He said that we should watch how well Japan handles the financial security of the elderly as there aging demographics are ahead of ours and there unfunded pension liabilities somewhat higher.
This does not bode well for our future and accounts at least partially for the very high savings rate in Japan. The US population has decided to put their money in the equities market instead of low interest postal savings in Japan, a wise move till now. On the other hand with Japan, in a deflationary economy, just keeping cash is not so bad, they also have the Yen carry trade and US equities for interest and appreciation, until nnow.
What happens after NOW, will have a large impact on how much of a burden both our senior populations will become. I am doing my best to avoid this fate. The boomers curse is so many others doing the same thing at the same time all the time........beginning to remind me of a line from the Great Gatsby, "Boats rowing against the current..."

I heard TV say that as soon as Clinton quits he would be open to lawsuits. If this is true, then you can forget about him quitting.

Highhopes

In the spirit of the times RICH said gold would be up 8 to 10 points. What is a point?

Yesterday you said to me... "it sucks in the same way to express your "professional opinion" a little bit down. "

Now Oris, I'm not quite sure about the nuances of that statement, but if it refers to Russkie rockets, let me ask you this? What is the launch relaiability rate of the Russian Zenit? expressed in percent?.

How does that Zenit launch reliability rate compare to the American made Atlas or Delta launch vehicles over the history of these programs,either throughout, or comparing only most recent versions? I know the answers to these questions...do you? If you do...than you know that calling the Zenit anything other than "grabage" is being way too kind.

LGB

Please read previous post.

If Clinton waits till after Jan. 20th Gore will pardon him, that's the deal!

HighRise

True if Clinton resigns or serves his full term he is subject to lawsuits so that is irrelevant. Resigning while he is still relatively popular would allow him to go out on a good foot. With immunity this wouldnt be bad. He would have his govt pension which cant be attached in a civil lawsuit and Hilliary could make tons on the talk circuit and with a book deal. The important thing is for him to resign when it appears that he could reasonably foght on. The media will GUSH. If he is smart he will resign within the next few weeks. He has no choice unless he is an idiot or he is backed by forces more powerful than any of us could dream. All the "accidents" do not make the latter completely out of the question. Thoughts?

One point on the Dow is give or take a few million.... One Billion.
Wowwwwww,,,gold up 10 billion bucks.

Gotta hand it to ya Puetz....after continuously making the worst market calls in the annals of Kitco, including the call for a 4000 to 5000 point drop in DOW over the past 2 weeks "post eclipse"...yoy STILL come here to this boars to claim your "eclispe theory"" has been fully validated by the past 2 weeks market activity.

You got Heuvos Puetz, I'll give you that.

Realistic, please continue posting the excellent questions and reminders of Puetz's past calls. Though some here protest...apparently because they much prefer fantasy to reality.... a good "reality" check is definitely appropriate re anything that Puetz puts on this board.

S & P Puts indeed...anyone who's been following Puetz for any length of time, and following his previous calls to invest in S & P Puts, by now has no "money they can afford to lose" left!

Puetz called for a meltdown Tueday before last, due to post Eclispe, and claimed it already began in New Zealand. Instead the DOW made the biggest point gain in history that day. NOW Puetz claims that he MEANT to say market TOPS would occur that day!

Yeah...sure Puetz.....

Still willing to make a bet with you Puetz...but I doubt you're betting this market with me, or even with the "Put" options you recommend. I think you've already found the best bet of all. Namely, selling absurd extremist fantasy to starry eyed gullible sheep via Newsletters. So they can pretend they didn't miss out on the best bull market in history. Great play Puetz. A winning bet I'd say.

LGB

Muslim coins are found in hoards throughout Russia and were in fact part of the local currency in circulation prior to the creation of a mint by Vladimir and Yaroslav..
http://www.urz.uni-heidelberg.de/subject/hd/fak7/hist/o1/logs/
mt/t38/0069.html

For many years my trading activities have been on balance a hugely expensive and trying experience.

I have loved the challenge, though. And I love the opportunity that modern telecommunications and computing power offer the individual trader like me. I love the international aspect of today's financial markets. I love the amazing liquidity and the very small cost of doing business in these markets.

The almost instant availability of changing prices for a huge variety of markets I still find mind boggling every time I tune in to live data feed.

I love it that consistently successful traders can do so outrageously well.

Some years ago I thought deeply about why so many traders lose.

What came to mind was why do I and just about everybody else who attempts travelling from one place to another in a car hurtling down a freeway, or worse still, a 2 lane highway, almost always gets to their destination safely? Because they give no thought to not getting there, and because they follow simple rules of the road which if adherred to almost always results in a safe and beneficial journey. Fear of adverse consequences ( accidents, fines, jail ) which can follow if there is any deviation from strict adherence to traffic rules is very powerful "emotional" motivating force keeping the driver "disciplined" in following the "system".

The reason for the abysmal performannce of nearly all traders is in my opinion simply that they have no simple, workable trading system to follow. Any price derivative ( moving average,oscillator, etc. ) type system out there I have ever used or studied did not work for me. Either the $ risk per trade was too high or the probality of each trade yielding an acceptable profit too small, or both. Or the system was too complex to follow strictly and consistently.

Trading by "gut feel", following blindly the in vogue market guru, astrolgy, cycles, Elliott ... has never worked for me. ( an understatement! )

To me, attempting to analyze the markets logically is an exercise in futility. Like trying to understand a woman's sometimes impulsive behaviour!

Markets, as I see them, are largely emotionally driven, particularly at turning points, major and minor.

I surmised if one were following a system that had 50% or more winning trades and the $ risk was acceptably small when weighed against the average winning trade profit, then NOT following such a system strictly would generate offsetting motivating emotions to follow it, strictly. Emotions would be supportive of system discipline, not in opposition to it as is almost always the norm, as Steve points out.

This has been my objective. To develop a systematic approach to trading today's swinging, uncertain commodity and financial markets. One that I know works and is simple to follow.

I look for specific chart price patterns I have identified and cataloged indicating an acceleration of emotionally driven buy/sell decisions by market participants. There usually follows a tradeable move, with acceptable $ risk.

Now, when I deviate from my trading rules, the feelings I subsequently experience are more apt to be YUK! It is likely that I have missed a good profit opportunity ( by not taking an entry signal ) or I have lost more than I needed to ( by exiting the trade at a greater loss or at a smaller profit than was necessary ) .

Somewhat akin to the emotions experienced that keep an automobile driver law abiding.

I thank you both for your thots which stimulated me to clarify my thinking in this area.

He is right to say that physical demand for gold is falling. But the inverse has been true for years and gold has fallen because of leasing and more importantly the derivitives market. In fact, the gold derivitive market is the opposite of financial derivitives, ie everyone is short the stuff they dont own. Gold has been pushed down by the paper market and will skyrocket by the paper market ( which will cure any "physical" supply ) . IMHO the paper mkt is sold out and losing in other areas which could induce short covering in the huge OTC paper mkt. Falling demand for physical gold...I like it..a bull climbs a wall of worry and when it does this "supposed" bearish factor will make the scramble to cover all the more frantic. We is there boys und madschen.

By George, you may be on to something there!

I have not been able to get the historical chart of our True Gold Index across yet, so as a stop-gap I put all the data needed to make the chart in my 10:59 this morning. Hope you can use it OK.

Regards.......Dabchick

regarding your 16:27 post to Envy, he will be 44 in 15 years when the boomer retires, not 54. He still better plan on his own retirement funds for a living.

I saw the Reno quote last year, but I had lost it. It's by far the scariest statement ever made by our cheif law enforcement officer. All those cult indicators are not only LEGAL, most are specific RIGHTS enumerated in the CONSTITUTION! She should have been IMPEACHED for saying it! Remember, she said it to justify running tanks over people in Waco. Those pictures of the tanks in Tiennemon Square remind me of Waco. This administration has no moral authority to preach to anyone about human rights!

The Democrats are between a rock and a hard spot on Clinton's resignation. The incumbents need to pull the rug out before the Nov. elections so they can try to keep from losing 20 or 30 seats. What good will it do Algore to be President if Republicans get a veto-proof majority in Congress?

While taking a walk with my wife in the woods today, out of
the blue, she asked me this question:

What's wrong with this guy? He smokes pot, but doesn't
inhale. He has sex with a White House intern, but he
quits before he has an orgasm. What's wrong with him?

I'm fit to be tied. I had no answer for her. But I
went on to explain that there is a plethora of Clinton
experts on Kitco that would have an answer. So don't
let me down.

I ask all of the Clinton experts out there:
What's wrong with a guy who always stops when he gets
to the good part?

1st prize to the winner of this contest:
A free isuue to "The Steve Puetz Letter" -- just written
an published far mailing this week.

Now, don't let me down, my wife's waiting for an answer.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

You know I hear over and over again how the Baby Boomers are going to be such a burden on the generations coming along after them. I never hear how the Generation Xers and such are going to historically benefit far greater than any other generation from being heirs to all that loot stored up by those they whine they're being asked to eventually support. --AG

The TV program made the point that he would not resign, because, as soon as he did, the law suits would start pouring in. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will resign. I agree wuth this assessment. He claims he doesn't have many assets anyway, so why go broke any sooner than you have to.
Secondly, you said go out while he's popular. I don't think that he is very popular these days. Do you?
Lastly, there is no guarantee of a pardon , at least, an early one. The public would see through this, causing more outrage, and perhaps, ruining Gore's future hopes.
Sorry to disagree, but that's what makes the world go round.

Highhopes

difference.

I have acquaintances who work for Bandar. There are no whisperings

of anything, so far. Haven't seen him around either, though.

First he did inhale, he just lied when he said he did not. As to orgasm, on the last two occasions he did hence his current troubles. The first times he didnt because he feared exactly what happened, probably from past incidents or warnings from his wife or staff about the irrefutability of the evidence. I truly believe that whatever he did with Monica ha really was at the time thinking of trouble and legal definitions to avoid problems. I have legal training and I completely understand the thought process and why he is doing it. Remember the LAW is the LAW and in any impeachment proceeding that is how things will be judged. Since perjury is I believe a "specific intent" offense his obfuscation is to negate this element ( which is not hard to do ) ie without specfic intent there is no offense. We laugh but he and his lawyers are thinking trial and proof. It looks ridiculous but if he is guilty of perjury that is it. So admit you misled but create a mistake as to facts based on the definition of sex to negate any necessary specific intent thus no violation. Lesson completed.

1905...Russian forces at Port Arther surrender to Japanese infantry January 2 as St. Petersburg verges on revolution. The Japanese have lost 57,780 men in assaults on the fortified heights, the Russians 28,200. Five Japanese armies defeat the Russians at Mukden in early March.

The battle of Tsushima Straits May 27 between Kyushu and Korea ends in victory for Admiral Togo, who arrays his ships 7,000 yards in front of a fleet of Russian vessels sent round the Cape of Good Hope to relieve Port Arthur. Bringing his guns to bear on one after the other, he fires into the eight Russian battleships, 12 cruisers, and nine destroyers, most of which explode, capsize, or stop inside 45 minutes.

A Russian revolution begins as news of the loss of Port Arthur and of "Bloody Sunday" incites the nation. A young priest ( Father George Gapon ) has led a peaceful workers' demonstration in front of the Winter Palace at St. Petersburg January 9, guards have machine-gunned the demonstrators on orders from the czar, revolutionary terrorists at Moscow murder the Grand Duke Serge, uncle of the czar, February 4, and peasants seize their landlords' land, crops, and livestock.

Russian sailors aboard the armored cruiser Potemkin mutiny in July at Odessa, a general strike is called in October, and on October 17 Nicholas II is obliged to grant a constitution, establish a parliament ( Duma ) , and grant civil liberties to placate the people.

USofA President Roosevelt ( Theodore ) mediates the dispute between Russia and Japan and a treaty of peace is signed September 05 at Portsmouth N.H. after a month of deliberations. But rioters at Tokyo protest the failure of Japanese diplomats to obtain an indemnity.

V.I. Lenin returns from exile and hails the workers' first Soviet ( council ) at St. Petersburg, but the czar withdraws his concessions one by one, the revolt began December 09 under the leadership of the Moscow Soviet is bloodily repressed by Christmas, and the Duma will be suspended by June 1906 ( Dates are Julian calandar dates - 13 days behind those in the Gregorian calandar of 1582 which Russia will not use until January 31, 1918 )

New programs begin in Russia. Terrorists of the anti-Semitic "Black Hundreds" will kill an estimated 50,000 Jews by 1909.


1917...A Bolshevik ( majority ) revolution at Petrograd the night of November 6 ( October 24 by the Julian calandar used in Russia ) .

Aleksanr Kerenski has been forced to accept Bolshevik support to resist the efforts of Gen. Lavr Georgievich Kornilov, 64, to make himself dictator, the Bolsheviks have secured a majority in the Petrograd Soviet under the leadership of revolutionist Leon Trotsky ( Lev Davydovich Bronstein ) 40, who was expelled from France last year and has returned from exile in the United States and England to support Lenin.

Trotsky had been summoned back to Russia to bring about the Revolution of 1917; he had been whiling his time away in New York as the guest of Rockefeller, who procured a special passport for him from President Woodrow Wilson, and sent Lincoln Steffens, the journalist, along as a companion.

This hegira received a rude interruption in Halifax, when the Canadian Secret Service ( RCMP ) arrested Trotsky on April 03 1917, and interned him for the duration. The agents had been tipped off that Trotsky's intent was to return to Russia, in order to take Russia out of the war against Germany. This would free many German divisions to fight against Allied Forces on the Western Front. These patriotic agents were protecting their countrymen by confining this dangerous revolutionary.

A world wide furore ensued when it was announced that Trotsky, had been arrested in Halifax. England's Prime Minister, Lloyd George, immediately demanded that Trotsky be released; President Woodrow Wilson chimed in with a similar demand. The Canadians ( RCMP ) ignored both of them.

What to do ? The plan for the Communist revolution was seriously endangered. It was at this historic juncture that the Rockefellers called in a marker with Canadian Prime Minister Mackenzie King. He came to Trotskt's rescue, sent him on his way, and the revolution in Russia took place on schedule.

Mackenzie King, had maintained a lifelong relationship with John D. Rockefeller Jr. King described this association in a letter to his friend, Violet King. " John D. Rockefeller Jr., the truest follower of Christ, has one purpose - to serve his fellow man" King then decided his role in life was to serve John D. Rockefeller. When the Rockefellers perpetrated the infamous massacre of their workers at the Colorado Fuel and Iron Co., it was Mackenzie King who came to Washington and testified in their defence.

World War I 1914 to 1919 -

March 10 1917 Russian troops mutiny following 2 days of strikes and riots at Petrograd; Czar Nicholas II, March 15 abdicates, and the Romanov dynasty founded in 1613 comes to an abrupt end.

V.I. Lenin and other Bolshevik leaders arrive at Petrograd in April 1917.
The German high command has sent them by sealed railroad carriage from Switzerland across Germany in a calculated move to undermine the pro-Ally provisional government.


USofA declares war April 06, 1917


July 07 1917 Russian troops pull back on all fronts, 1.7 million Russians have been killed in the War.

The Kerenski government falls, Kerenski himself goes into hiding ( he will later take sanctuary abroad ) , and a new government headed by Lenin takes office November 07 under the name Council of People's Commissars.

Trotsky is commissar for foreign affairs and a Georgian who calls himself Josef Stalin ( Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili ) 39, is commissar for national minorities.

1925 "The Business Of America Is Business" says President Coolidge January 17 in an address to the Society of American Editors.

President Coolidge tells Congress he opposes cancellation of French and British war debts. The foreign press has called Uncle Sam "Uncle Shylock" for refusing even to scale down the debts but Coolidge says privately.
"They hired the money, didn't they ?"

Britain's chancellor of the exchequer Winston Churchill returns to the GOLD STANDARD at the prewar GOLD and dollar value of the pound - 123.27 grains of GOLD 11/12 fine, or 4.87 dollars to the pound.

Parliament and the people respond with enthusiasm but the move makes British coal, steel, machinery, textiles, ships, cargo rates, and other goods and services 10 per cent above world ptices, and the result is unemployment and wage cuts.

A British General Strike cripples the nation from May 3 to May 12 as members of the Trade Union Congress rally to the slogan "Not a penny off the pay, not a minute on the day". Workers refuse to accept a pay cut averaging 13 percent and refuse to work an extra hour each day.

France stabilizes the franc at 20 percent of its prewar value, thus virtually wiping out the savings of millions of Frenchmen. The devaluation will have the effect of making the French Europe's greatest GOLD HOARDERS.

1925..Mein Kampf ( my battle ) by Adolf Hitler is published in its first part. Hitler has dictated the book to his aid ( Walter Richard ) Rudolf Hess, 31, while in prison and will complete it in 1927, saying
" THE GREAT MASSES OF THE PEOPLE...WILL MORE EASILY FALL VICTIMS TO A GREAT LIE THAN TO A SMALL ONE"

FWIW Be Quiet...Consume..And Die. Mushrooms-R-Us. Take care

I haven't a clue why? Mabe it's something to do with incest. You know Freud said "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."
WJC proved him wrong.

sex definition. This is Clinton's only hope as without it being proven there is no impeachable offense. This is WHY STARR is disclosing all the salacious details. These are the facts which will determine specific intent. Clinton' counter move is this is an un fair attack. An interesting battle but how long will the Dems fight for Clinton or DO THEY HAVE TO BASED ON WHAT HE KNOWS ABOUT HIM. I thought it was interesting that negatives about Al Gore came out after the 8/17 speech disaster just IMHO to cool Dem heels about forgetting Clinton and going with Gore.Just another coincidence I guess?

Your wife has a good point. As one female to another, I would jump to the fact that he's a commitaphobic!!

roebear...

look at weekly crude..in '91....

http://bohl.minot.com/index.html

oil to $41bbl real quick...

when iraq invades afghanistan...and the missles
fly in the straits of hormuz.....and pakistan retaliates...
and iraq, syria, libya, china, russia, n. korea,
balkans erupt into flames......and the house of ibn saud---minions of the west---has its' throat slit by the whirling dervishes....
this will happen as the tet offensive did....suddenly and
without mercy....ALL in the way....all will pay..


we shall----IN 1999--- ( caps for realistic ) see oil make
huge moves....HUGE.....war is going to control the price of
oil.....and war makes some people VERY wealthy. if they
can 'see' the ends of their noses......

the nose has been seen here many times.....as it is now.

cherokee!;..seeking.the.hidden.seekers....yar....gtsajars..

BUGal, oris: to my knowledge the exploded rocket was produced in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine and not in Russia. 100% Ukrainian project
Tolerant1: Namaste'
Gnite all

The answer is very simple. Its the same reason why Clinton is so slim and trim. He chews but never swallows his food. Its not so hard not to swallow when you have held in all that pot smoke which you still haven't inhaled and you are holding back the orgasmic spasms. The man must be a master of self-control. One wonders why his eyes aren't crossed.

With all the gloom and doom in Asia, it would be good to hear
that he's O.K..
--------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ardemgaz.com/today/gaasia20.html

A little levity in light of the television expose tomorrow:

A married couple was enjoying a dinner out when a
statuesque blonde walked over to their table,
exchanged warm greetings with the husband and walked off.

"Who was that?" the wife demanded.

"If you must know," he coolly replied,
"that was my mistress."

"Your mistress? I want a divorce!"

"Are you sure you want to give up a big
house in the suburbs, a Mercedes, furs,
jewelry and a vacation home in Mexico?"

They continued dining in silence. Finally,
the woman nudged her husband and said,
"Isn't that Howard over there? Who's he
with?"

"That's his mistress," her husband replied.

"Oh," she said, taking a bite of
dessert. "Ours is cuter."

Bingo please give me an email to Gandalf-White@msn.com

.

As to the WJC question; He wants adoration. He is manipulative. He is a control freak. Take any of the scenario's that he has been in and apply the above statements. Just like the 'emotion' switch during the Ron Brown funeral, laughing it up until he discovered that a camera was pointed at him. In an instant, a somber Clinton appears... Magic!

Extrapolate from there, sex included, and i think you'll get it.

January 31, 1999. As halftime entertainment for Superbowl XXXIII.

"What's wrong with a guy who always stops when he gets
to the good part?".............

He lies, and relies on the Media for "the" projection of self image !

Haggis

Yeah, you're right man, we've got it made. *snicker*. Call me a whining, lazy, slacker again, I love that part.

You are correct that it was Ukrainian venture.
But for guys like BUGal it makes no difference,
they enjoy being THE "experts" no matter what...

I think your joke of the evening is nice.
I also think it's an old Jewish anecdote...

If he quit before finishing why the cum on Monica's dress. I didn't inhale is the second most famous lie, the first of coarse " I didn't have sexual rel......well you know. The last 8 months proves that Clinton will lie when the truth works better. America has elected a sociopath to the Presidency. We're not the first to do this.

I don't make them up. I just send them along. Thanks for the genealogy on that one though. A good Jewish tale is hard to beat.

Clinton will not resign without a protracted fight and the reason is
he knows Starr will indict him as soon as he leaves office. My guess
is it will go down to the nose counting in the Senate. If it's foregone
that he will be removed from office after the nose count, he will resign
before the offical vote to preserve his pension.

The only way he would resign is if it were part of a deal that included
a pardon from Gore or a promise not to prosecute from Starr. This
won't come until after Jan. 20 1999 so that Gore can run for 2 terms
is his own right.

Warning: widespread downtrend ahead Wall Street,

By Alan Deans There is good news and bad news about the outlook for Wall Street. First, the bad news is that earnings for the third quarter are now forecast to slump marginally, the first time that profits would have failed to grow in seven years.

For those with a memory for these things, that dates back to before the start of the great stockmarket boom. Yet it is just the latest step in a worrying downward trend that goes back to the peak of the profits cycle in mid-1995.

The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have priced much of this gloom into stocks. However, that does not mean shares will recover soon from their sub-8000 point level. That depends on how long the present earnings recession lasts.

On Friday, a combined options expiry day saw the Dow close a moderate 21.9 points higher at 7895.6  up on the week but still down for the year.

Consensus forecaster First Call says expectations are for a 0.2 per cent slump in earnings this quarter, but it warns this could worsen to 3 per cent. The sectors to be worst hit are commodity-related, including paper, steel, oil and chemicals.

But stockbroking, the source of solid earnings growth in recent times, is also among those ready to be hammered. Estimates are for a decline of 32 per cent over a year ago.

Salomon Smith Barney has analysed the sectors in the hope of finding a star. John Manley concludes that the deterioration will be widespread, but he has come up with heath-care companies, including drug manufacturers, as a sector where growth should exceed 10 per cent.

Clearly, these are dangerous times for investors to be buying. Earnings growth for the fourth quarter is certain to be cut considerably from First Call's 10.8 per cent consensus figure, prompting more price weakness as the year draws to a close.

Like a sick patient holding out for a healthy prognosis, the only real hope for a sustained turnaround is for a cut in official interest rates.

Such a shot in the arm would spur investors to review sectors with growth potential and engage in some healthy bargain hunting. Mr Manley pinpoints technology stocks as one group that, while it is likely to have a decline in earnings during the present quarter, is at or near bottom.

The market rallied last week in the hope that such external influences would boost prices. But there are still dark clouds hanging around.

The darkest of the lot could break today with the release in Washington of the videotape of President Bill Clinton's grand jury testimony, plus numerous appendices. While the Lewinsky scandal has had little direct effect on stock prices, impeachment deliberations are becoming bitter.

Should it become a drawn-out process, it will do little to create a confident environment for investing.

There is also continuing global uncertainty. Despite his speech about spurring international growth and saving the US economy, people are sceptical about President Clinton and the G7's ability to deliver quickly in the war they declared on deflation.

Wall Street's daily ups and downs are still dictated by movements on the battered Tokyo stock market as much as any other factor. http://www.afr.com.au/content/980921/market/markets2.html

Remember the Nixon pardon by Ford, hurt Ford's chances for a second term, but Nixon did get a pardon when many thought he should go to jail.

Clinton is a real piece of work, however, so he may never have to resign. Lie Stall and Lie some more to the people until his term is over.
Many seem to be still buying into his innocence.

HighRise

Unless Y2K damns us to rooting through ruins for salvage to barter with or eat. You may be correct with your figures if most of the global population has a mere pittance of a per capita M1. If the US per capita M1 of today is extrapolated to the world's population {due to their someday attaining our current level of affluence}, then the US$ value of Gold would be on the order of $30,000 - ten times higher than your figure.

At the cusp of a new era, both in government and economics, here is a well written piece by Eric Margolis of the Toronto Sun. A highly recommended and fitting eulogy for the Clinton Era. http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

http://www.businesswindow.com/clock.shtml

LEWD-INSKY'S NOT ONE OF US, SAY PEERS

By JOHN O'MAHONY

An angry generation of twentysomethings would like to see Monica Lewinsky drop silently off the face of the Earth.

A poster girl for their post-Generation X she's not, they said - she's more like a blot on the landscape.

And they warned against making judgments about them based on the actions of the smashmouth 25-year-old intern who introduced herself to the president by flashing her thong panties in his face.

She's certainly not representative of women our age at all, said Therese McDonald, 25, an assistant editor at a major Manhattan publisher.

Her behavior was tacky. The president showed poor judgment in choosing to carry on with her, and she's weak, weak, weak, McDonald said.

Sally Rosenthal, 25, a research assistant for a Manhattan film production company, said she thought Monica naive. I don't generally have much sympathy for a woman who'll go chase after a married man, even if he is who he is.

Because of the wealth of salacious details in the Starr report, Lewinsky's peers feel they know as much about the former White House intern's hopes, dreams and sexual proclivities as they know about those of their best friends.

The trouble is that few of those in Lewinsky's age bracket would ever want her as their best friend.

From what I've read, she's an untrustworthy and dangerous person to be around, said Tana Osa Yande, 28, an assistant at a literary agency.

And it amazes me that she doesn't seem to be as distraught as I would be in the same situation. She owes Hillary Clinton and the nation an apology as much as Clinton, but she goes off and does a photo spread in Vanity Fair!

Lewinsky's therapist, Kathleen Estep, told prosecutors her patient suffered from depression and low self-esteem, but such exculpatory psychobabble doesn't wash with the former intern's peers.

New Yorker Kamal Latham, 24, a public-policy masters student at the Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Mass., said he believes Lewinsky knowingly set up the president.

Anyone who would hold on to a semen-stained dress without washing it, as she did, has an agenda and a motive that was questionable, Latham said.

Others saw Lewinsky as a typical piece of flotsam from California's feckless Melrose Place world, where everyone wants to sleep with someone famous.

Eden White, 28, said that in the music industry, where she works as a singer/songwriter, there are always those who mistakenly believe they can get ahead by making out with people in power.

But it's not the way to go, she said.

Anyone who is admirable and honorable runs the other way. If Monica Lewinsky wanted to advance herself, she should have done it with her intelligence, her demeanor or her personality and not by having sex with the president.

Most of those who spoke to The Post felt little compassion for Lewinsky, but some admitted being concerned about how she would reclaim her life.

She's infamous now, said Mary Beth Brown, 24, a literary agent's assistant.

What job is she ever going to get? What do you do after this now that everyone knows who she is?

But there are some consolations - all Lewinsky's peers agreed she'll never be short of male company.

Sure she'll get any number of dates because some men seek out celebrity and everyone's aware of the interesting kind of tricks she knows, said McDonald.

But I also think her chances of having a significant, real relationship are slim.

More than anything else, Lewinsky's peers said they'd been shocked, not just by her actions and those of the president but by the whole Sexgate affair, which some said had shaken their confidence in government.

It acts as discouragement and a deterrent for people interested in the political process when they see how irresponsible and insincere our leaders can be, said Latham.

They're all trying to tear each other down when they should resolve the situation and move on.

The country would be much better off if they did. http://www.nypost.com/news/4950.htm

Nothing personal you understand. You are still the heir to my entire fortune. However, for your impudence I will not bequeath you the Rolls Royce. --AG

The Globex is down -63. Doesn't look good for the dow tommorow.

Hi Tolerant1.....Wifey still floating on air.

I specifically asked you "to strike 3 last lines,
which I forgot to delete". You still used those lines..
It shows me your attitude, which I do not like.

In regard to your question about Atlas, or Zenith or
whatever - I do not know, I know both American and
Russian rockets went down in flames a lot...This
was the project between "foolish" Loral ( you said so )
and UKRAINE ( not Russia ) . Ukraine is not a part of Russia.
but it used to be a part of the U.S.S.R. For you to blame
your stock loss on Russia is stupid and primitive. Blame
it on Loral or Ukraine, whatever. You are generally O.K.
as I always believed, but you latest statement about
this "Russkie rocket caused my loss" is some kind of
dirty joke, and you know this....No respect any more.

I'll look at Loral stock tomorrow. I believe there should
be more downside potential for this stock...





game he

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )
Nov
15.61
15.73
15.61
15.73
+0.11
9/20/98
16:24

HighRise

Dear Squirrel

My estimate is based on the M 1 money supply being roughly 1/7th to 1/8th the gross world product. If you have better numbers from a better source then please enlighten me.

Best regards

King Steven

His serious crimes and viscious attacks on all who assail him will force him to leave the country to avoid prison. He will not go down without a protracted dirty fight - he has done this already as can be seen by the growing list of "suicides", homicides, "accidents", beatings, threats, character assasinations, IRS audits, and other "dirty tricks" ( Nixon to the umpteenth power}. His quiver of FBI files and squad of secret police and attack dogs will turn many people into his victims and the survivors thereof into enemies.
Will he find sanctuary in Indonesia or China? Who in this world would take him in? Unlike other tyrants - he may leave here a broken, destitute man - no stocks of Gold in a numbered Swiss account.

My friend, I agree. Whatever looks good to make gold
more shiny and goldbugs more happy must be posted
over here.

I was hoping someone would have ferreted out a figure or made a reasonable guestimate.
Thank You.

Yes Clinton and Hillary are lawyers. I say this all the time, All Lawyers are TRAINED LIARS, that is their profession.
Most politicians are LAWYERS, and by defualt they are LIARS.
This is proven time and time again, and maybe the Clinton case is the best proof to date.....

Lysten too meh, Lysten too meh goowd, Aaagh diyd nawt smowk thayt cy-gaaah ........

You know you're a red-neck when...

If Jennifer flowers and Linda Trip hadn't taped the events they would be Dead like so many others. I would think the same is true for Monica's keeping the dress.

By the way, she did state that she usually gets her dresses cleaned just before she whears them again. It is in the testiclemony released last week.

HighRise

C'mon! You have to be kidding. There is no way he would have put

himself through all this and not have "exhaled" with Monica.

Absolutely no way. What for, the romance of it? Sorry, but I'm

hangin' on to the keyboard to keep from falling over in laughter.

By the way, my intention is NOT to insult Puetz and Mrs. Puetz.

Keep on keepin' on.

I tried Marijuana once. But I never exhaled.

Do you think Clinton will really exhale in Indonesia or China?

Thanks for the site, as I am not a client the chart is not availble for me, it seems.

That was a great article on the Clinton 'thing'.

Dear Squirrel
Its my belief that your $30,000 dollar U.S. price for gold represents a gold price based on a M3 money supply which is far larger but is a little smaller than the Gross World product. Next to this theoretical gold price the market price isn't even 1 cent on the dollar. This mean there is a big potential for a massive deflationary wipe out. There are too many unbacked dollars out there even for the market price of gold to be valid. I fore see interesting times for the world particularly for over confident short sellers. Good luck gentlemen you will need it.

best regards

King Steven

Despite media reports that few are interested in Clinton video, it appears it is already a bestseller IN ADVANCE for Amazon dot com. Also the Starr report and a book on Clinton are in the top five, the video knocked down Stephen King from #1!

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101a.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/tops/gpm.html

Like I said, guy, you've got it all figured out *innocent smile*. To quote Arsenio Hall "Why would I want to steal your wallet, when I've got MY wallet ?" *chuckle*. The barbarians are indeed gathering at the gate - and they've honed themselves through a decade of street warfare, adorned themselves with tattoos, established their own tribes and nations, and they're gunning for you, a level of competition you have never experienced. Your children have become a clever, witty bunch, and they thrive on change and harsh reality.

I have a very simple 5 day trading system I use to trade the AU majors. I knew I was going to get a buy signal @ the close on Thurs. & almost bought some PDG several hrs before the close. I resisted because I'm not comfortable with the USD so low & think it will rebound & torpedo the POG. Anyway, as it turned out, by ignoring my buy signal, I missed out on approx 1.30 Cdn per share so far.

Oh well, maybe I can make up for it by shorting on the next sell signal.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
8:13PM
13691.86
-291.26
-2.08%

Nikkei now down 291 ( 2.08% )

September 20, 1998

U.S., Japan will study missile defence to counter North Korea

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Concerned about North Korea's ballistic missile development, the United States and Japan agreed Sunday to conduct joint research on a missile defence system that could protect the island nation from attack.

"No one should doubt our commitment to defend our interests and to work together for peace and stability in Asia," Defence Secretary William Cohen said at a joint news conference with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and their Japanese counterparts. "And this is the best way to protect both the United States and Japan."

The United States has 100,000 troops in the region, about one-third of them guarding the always tense demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.

Obuchi, in an interview with Western reporters, said Saturday that Japan already had taken every measure to pull itself out of recession short of a 'wartime economy' of massive military spending increases. He added that he would not resort to such a move, however.

http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.United-Nations.html


September 20, 1998

Obuchi arrives in U.S. for maiden summit

NEW YORK, Sept 20 ( Reuters ) -Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi on Sunday arrived here for his maiden summit with U.S. President Bill Clinton amid a growing world sense of urgency about efforts being taken to revitalise Japan's faltering economy.

But with both leaders facing difficulties on the domestic front - Obuchi hobbled by steadily falling popularity ratings, while Clinton is fighting for political survival in the wake of a sex scandal - there are doubts about how much of substance the meeting can accomplish.

In an interview published earlier Sunday in the Washington Post, Obuchi appeared ready for some tough talking, saying that Japan has already taken every measure it can short of a "wartime economy" of massive military spending increases.

But he said he would never consider that option, citing Japan's war-renouncing constitution.

As if the economy were not enough, Clinton and Obuchi are preparing to grapple with a raft of other issues, including questions about North Korea prompted by that country's launch last month of a rocket that overflew Japan and starkly pointed up the limits of Japan's defence capabilities.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/JAPAN-USA.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980920/ea.html

Both USA and former USSR have a record of crashes of their space ships. A year or two ago - do not remember exactly - join European project failed - explosion after launch from South America, also several billions fired. Sh*t happens, even with less sophisticated devices, like Swiss airplane, produced in USA. As far as we talk about launch systems, IMO, Russian one is better. Here are my reasons. In addition to well known launch complex in Kasakhstan, there is an alternative military one in the north part of Russia, where weather conditions are very poor most of the time. People, who designed these systems, had an order to produce system that works in any weather conditions. You know military people - cannon can fire or it can not, and there is nothing in between. So, we all heard many times, that space launch in US was postponed because of weather conditions, but I never heard such a message from Russia meaning all international flights during last 10-15 years.

sacked Deputy Prime Minister was arrested after a rally where more than 100,000 supporters turned up in the capital calling for Dr. Mahatdir's resignation as PM. strangely enough, Anwar's arrest coincides with Queen Elizabeth's arrival in the capital and the eve of the last day of the Commonwealth Games.

News Reports

http://www.abc.net.au/news/98/09/21/980921_25.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/nat/newsnat-21sep1998-22.htm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_175000/175276.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_175000/175896.stm

Sydney Newspaper says charges against Anwar "not credible"
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9809/21/world/index.html


Mahatdir's days are numbered.

Hillary's new book
IT TAKES A VILLAGE "IDIOT"

He will then go into seclusion for a few weeks. There will then be reports of him being sighted in several Cities around the U.S. He will eventually turn up as a guest at Hugh Heffner's playboy mansion. There, he will finally be able to indulge in all the base vices that he has been unsucessfull in supressing for the last 6 years. After a few months he will start to make appearances on talk TV shows & will become a regular on Larry King. His appearances will cause the ratings to go thru the roof. In 2000 he will replace Larry King who will enter a Buddhist Monastery in Tibet.

bmacd: I let my wife judge the entries in the Clinton
contest, and she liked yours the best. The only reason
she thought that was because ( after she asked me the question )
she told Clinton can't make a commitment!

You are the only women to answer, and your answer was
essentially the same as my wife's!!! I guess women must
think alike. No offense, I liked some of the other answers
better than yours, but -- you know -- I gotta' go with
what my wife says.

So, send your name and address to bpuetz@holli.com
and I'll send you the latest issue of my letter.

We both had a lot of laughs from all of the replies.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

http://cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9809/20/malaysia.marches/

Read your most recent post and understood most of it but didn't get the last phrase very well , you know.... "game he".....

BTW, I didn't say Russia was to blame for my recent losses in LOR. I said quite clearly, it was my OWN company's foolishness in using a Russkie rocket..and yes it is in the Ukraine where it's launched, but it is indeed a RUSSIAN design, the Zenit. It also has a 25% launch failure rate, FAR worse than any domestic U.S. vehicle by multiples.

Now Oris, don't take it personally if I blast my company's use of the Russian Zenit. It's not meant to be a slam against you. It's meant to be a slam against my own complany management for putting a fourth of our Globalstar constellation on a launcg vehicle which is a piece of garbage.

As to potential for LOR stock declines, actually I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into it, right after the decline and made "almost" all the loss back in the last 4 trading days. It went up about 8% in that time....

Futher, when GLobalstar and some other ventures we're working on are in place and producing revenue, we'll be pulling in about $4.00 per share earnings....... meaning our stock will be worth about 88% what it is now.

LGB

and he has been steadfast so I object to your spouses analysis. He is COMMITTED to AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, GAY RIGHTS, PARTIAL BIRTH ABORTION, AMERICAN JOB DESTROYING CORRUPT TRADE AGREEMENTS ( read Salinas ) and IMF FUNDING FOR MORE MONEY DOWN THE HOLE. This is even though these arent POLL PLEASERS. Your wrong HE can make commitments even when not popular send me the prize.

ROR: After deep and careful consideration -- your comments
have a certain intensity that requires another prize.

In the male division, you win 1st place.
Send your e-mail or postal-mail address to bpuetz@holli.com
and I'll award you your much-deserved prize.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

A local TV station posts the overseas price of gold at the bottom of the TV screen. I'm not sure whether it is the spot price or December future price but it doesn't matter. Anyways, I noticed it opened down $1.10 and continued to $1.20 down. It has since recovered to "no change" from Friday's close. In my humble opinion, this action indicates that we are in for an interesting night. If gold starts its upward climb overseas tonight from its opening of ( $1.10 ) and finishes up in the oversea's market, I think we will be in for a big day tommorrow.



Regards



Rolly

Maybe he'll go like Allende, that other hero of the lefties.

My latest invention for submariners: Jet Assisted Dive Unit.

Deeper dives and shorter time to target level.

The submarine company that I am interested in is going to demonstrate some of these, as well as their new aquabatic submarine. Ideal for aquatic dog fights.

Globex down, yen down, dollar slightly down, gold down, silver slghtly up ( there's that silver, acting funny again, and so early in the evening ) , oil up, bonds up.

Could be a gloomy Monday in equities.

Still kind of early though.

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )
Nov
15.61 15.87 15.61 15.85 +0.23 9/20/98 @18:26

HighRise

is that a man who always quit before he got to the good part is a man who was not able to successfully conceal ever having been there in the first place.

Anybody have the current COMEX silver stocks levels? Thanks in advance.

RidgeRunner

DRUDGE REPORT...
R O L L
T A P E

The strange thing is that all the traders and analysts keep saying silver is due to retest it's lows. Some say 4.70, others even 4.65, yet silver keeps moving against the current at odd moments overnight and on the access market.

Something doesn't quite gel.

At the moment gold is down 40 but silver is up 2. Whenever I see a log floating upriver, I always suspect there may be a 'gator underneath.

Interesting Thought

HighRise

What about watergate?

Is it that Clinton is accused of being a human male or that we think we can prove it?

Scathing article on the Russian economic debacle. Slams US Treasury and levels very serious charges at Gore. http://www.nypostonline.com/business/4945.htm

I have successfully completed final trials of my top secret filter for extracting desolved gold from sea water. In order for this filter to be successful at today's gold prices, I have to process 5,220 gallons of sea water per minute. I have been wondering if your submarine would run fast enough to supply the needs of this filter. It has an intake orfice of 12 inches. To attach this filter to your submarine would take little modification.
I have talked to Bill Clinton and he said the orfice was too small because the submarine is cigar-shaped. The flow of the necessary liquids would not flow properly. If you could bring this matter before your engineers for successful input, we could merge our companies and start selling stock. Of course, it would have to be on the Vancouver exchange.

1 ) Never believe anything untill it's officially denied.

2 ) Politicians always point away from something.

3 ) A small truth hides a larger lie.

Japan 13660.04 -323.08 -2.31%

Friday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a light 21,000 lots. Recently volume has been much higher on strong up days than on strong down days, thus creating bullish on-balance volume. Total COMEX gold open interest on Thursday rose 937 to 174,250 contracts, demonstrating probable commercial accumulation even on a day when gold rallied $3.30, which is a bullish indicator. COMEX silver open interest edged up 199 to 73,143 lots. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 924,724 ounces, while
COMEX silver warehouse stocks fell 353,550 to 77,355,136 ounces, close to their lowest level since 1982.

4 ) All lawyers are politicians.

5 ) Ken Starr is a lawyer.

6 ) Starr is working against Clinton

September 18, 1998

B.C. economy heading south, says government report

VICTORIA ( CP ) -- British Columbia's economic future is going from bad to worse, a provincial government economic report said Friday.

"Well, if you're a family in a resource town, that family knows they're in a recession," MacPhail said.

"I think things are going to get worse. We're heading into tougher times than we've known before."

Housing starts have declined 20.9 per cent so far this year, and home sales have dropped 25 per cent this year compared with the January-to-July period of last year.

"What this report shows clearly is we are moving into an escalating recession and that means thousands more people are going to lose their jobs," Campbell said. "It means that revenues are going to continue to drop."
http://www.freecartoons.com/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.B.C.-Economy.html

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Microsoft ( Nasdaq:MSFT - news ) Chairman Bill Gates may be the richest American now, but a new study finds that Gates ranks only No. 5 on the list of the richest men throughout U.S. history.

The survey in the magazine's Oct. 12 issue found that Gates' holdings are a far smaller share of today's economy than Rockefeller's was at the time of his death in 1937. 

Adjusting for the tremendous growth in America's economy since then, the survey found that Rockefeller's wealth would be worth a whopping $190 billion today, including all of his charitable contributions.
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980920/richest_am_4.html

And remember Unlike other families the Rockefeller assets are still under one control. David Rockefeller being interviewed by Charlie Rose.

Now if Jon Ds assets where 190 Billion in 1937, what are they worth to day?

It kind of makes Bill Gates 60 Billion seem insignificant doesnt it?

Now you know who decides whether Clinton leaves or not and if he does when.

HighRise

Cal Ripken is ending his record for most consecutive games in major league baseball. He took himself out of the starting line up tonight, saying, "It's time." Just heard this on the radio.

Sorry,...They are worth 190 Billion today, I would bet that is a very conservative number.

HighRise

Thanks, Speed, for the prompt response.

As Senator Foghorn might say, "It looks like they be some accumulatin' goin' on out the'ah."

Silver stocks continue to slowly decrease. Somebody is putting a position together for a major long term play. Nice and easy so as not to spook the herd too soon.

I haven't been watching this Clinton thing as closely as I should I guess. What's been going on? The last I heard, Starr had been hired to investigate some serious matters involving Watergate, travel gate, FBI gate, etc.

Now some $40 million dollars later ( is that right? ) he has discovered that Clinton is a womanizer ( didn't we already know that? or didn't the Arkansas atate police among others already know that? ) .

Furthermore, Hillary ( also a part of watergate ) had NO idea, Bill would have been up to anything like that. Even though there are tapes, recordings, stained dresses, hordes of material witnesses...

All because of some gal who discussed her most intimate moments to be recorded on tape ( which, now it seems, might have been doctored ) by a supposed friend, and who also carefully saved the dress with the "evidence" on it.

Why do I keep thinking of the words "soap opera"?

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Tokyo stock prices fell sharply in early trading Monday, the first session since Japan's ruling and opposition parties reached a compromise on crucial bank reform bills late last week. The U.S. dollar rose against the yen. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost 258.14 points, or 1.85 percent, to 13,724.98 points in the first 30 minutes of trading. On Friday, the Nikkei closed up 123.98 points, or 0.89 percent. The dollar bought 133.30 yen in early trading, up 1.20 yen from late Friday in Tokyo and also above its New York level of 132.60 yen on Friday. Traders said share prices started lower on a flurry of selling by institutional investors as the agreement on key bills to stabilize the banking system appeared to unravel over the weekend as politicians resumed wrangling over key provisions. On Friday, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's LDP bowed to opposition demands, agreeing to nationalize the ailing Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan instead of the ruling party's initial plan to use public money to rescue it. The bills are aimed at cleaning up about 76 trillion yen ( $575 billion ) in bad loans that have burdened the country's banking system since the burst of the highly speculative "bubble" economy in the early 1990s.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0e.htm

A few weeks ago I gave a "Bear Call" here. The market cooperated beautifully for a while, yielding about $35,000/contract profit. Then, at the beginning of September, Arch Crawford and Steve Puetz came out with simultaneous "Crash Calls", and the rest is history.: ) Now this was a vicious bear, with tremendous downside momentum. It could have easily overcome a crash call from either of the aforementioned worthies. But the bear was never born who could withstand simultaneous crash calls from those two. So now we're back to buying the dips for a season. 9/1 low WILL NOT break. 9/10 will probably hold. Look
for a good run of at least 150 S&P handles from the low of the next 3 days. If we get another "crash call" from one of the astrological gurus, add 100 handles to that guesstimation.: )

I get that feeling too. If I was a big buyer, I think I would build up a supply of call options BEFORE I actually bought the physical in order to protect myself as much as possible from price movement as the buy commenced.

Now gold is down 60 but solver is holding at plus two.

Ripples in the water as the log continues to float against the current.

Never outrageously obvious. Subtle.

I am still working on the math. They said that John D. would be worth 190 billion using todays numbers - compared to todays GNP etc.; but that is not the same as saying it would be worth 190 Billion today. What about compound interest and investment gains?

We may be talking about 190 Billion compounded over the last 61 years! WOW!

Compounded Power Factor is awsome!

I think? Anyway, it's a lot of $.

HighRise

Will be watched by 90% of the electorate..including the phony liberal left who claim that they will never do such an unseemly thing as watch the footage of the "real" Clinton.

Hmmm, speaking of the liberal left that says the tapes shouldn't be released....are these the SAME liberal left folks who demanded the release of the8 hours of Reagan videotaped testimony in the Iran-Contra
affair? In the trial of Poindexter? Tape which was indeed publically relased thus setting the precedent?

LGB

Equally ugly - Hong Kong 7215.69 -230.27 -3.09%

You're welcome. I think you are right. Senator Foghorn for President!!!

away to dreamland....big week ahead.

I just purchased 100 oz silver bar today at a gold and silver exchange. I did not know it would make this kind of impact : )

Brother Oris. See how easy it is to make typo errors? What I meant to say in previous post was that LOR stock would be around 7 to 8 TIMES what it is now, when we achieve $4.00 to $5.00 earnings per share, which is currently projected to be in late Y2K, early 2001 timeframe. That's when all our big bread and butter wireless global communication networks will be up & running and producing revenues.

Now, as to my previous posts, my apologies if they came off as arrogant and sarcastic. There is a bit of a problem in the Cyberworld, in that you can't hear voice inflections or see facial experssions. Couple this with the cultural background differences and it becomes difficult to know when someone is giving you a friendly jibe as they would in a group of buddies, or being mean and nasty. In the case of my previous posts to you, it was intended as friendly.

BTW, my father's name is "Ivan" you know. ( And that's not a joke.... )

Some Russkie hardware is superior stuff, some Western hardware is...yes? IMHO, the West has produced better Aerospace products overall, but this is certainly not a hard and fast rule.

LGB

Chris - hate to be nosy, but how much did the 100oz bar run you ?

Oldman - I really hate to be betting against your call. 35K$US/contract, what kind of contract are you talking about ? S+P puts I assume ? You have more experience with options trading I'm sure, I'd love to hear your strategies, which options your tend to migrate to, etc.

Ah HA! So YOU are the culprit. I knew it. Why didn't you buy some gold at the same time, and then we never would have noticed?

Tomorrow, Clinton will be live at the UN, on tape for most of the watching public, and Japan and Hong Kong are tanking. This should be the ultimate test of the PPT's mettle. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Thank you for participation and info. I must say
you know a lot of stuff about Russia, and your
knowledge has real depth.

I was on the fence about the markets prospects to go eitehr direction, and recently laid a very large bet on my own company's stock.. ( after it became grossly oversold due to a launch failure ) .... thankfully, that "Long" position has a much better shot due to your observation.

Puetz has helped me sleep much better at night.

religious zealots - all religious zealots, have always scared the heck out of me. they are always right, it is always there way and God help you if you do not agree with their position. starrs dad thought it was shameful/sinful for women to wear shorts. kind of reminds you of some other scary places with scary ideas, doesn't it?

Don't forget:

K. Starr's law firm was/is involved in Chinagate - posted here by another poster awhile back.

Oliver North CIA, Reagan Bush Clinton Mena Arkansas - Iran contra, arms for drugs Lassiter.

Lies, Blackmail, Sex, Treason, etc. etc.

Rockefellers, Goldman Sachs, Rubin Clinton IMF both Republicans and Democrats

All Lawyers both parties, whatever it takes to get the job done for the big boys.

Soap Opera for sure and has been since the begining of time. Started with Apples and eventually moved to Oil.

Meanwhile, while we watch the show above deck they are they are making major changes below. ie ) Chrysler is gone to Euro. and there was not one whimper.

The company that made the Tiger Tank now makes the US M-1 Tank.

HighRise

My arrival at that number was predicated on extrapolating US per capita M3 to the world's population and comparing it to per capita Gold of 0.6 ounces. Using M1 puts the POG at only US$6500 {more or less}.

Skinny's process should make a tidy profit with the POG at the latter level. Lots of submarines and ships plying the oceans extracting Gold.
At 0.05ppb Gold in seawater and "5,220 gallons of sea water per minute" at 70% efficiency, Skinny's process could yield an ounce a month. Maybe if the orfice was bigger and the sub inhaled more water...

I will admit that I do not know much about investing but I am smart enough to read posts from from others such as yourself and others how do. I took my money out of the stock market when so many people here were claming it was about to crash ( and it did ) and I bought a LOT of silver at 4.66 and I have already made good money thanks to some of the post I have read. The way I figure it I don't have know every thing about investing just be around people who do.

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's trade surplus with the world rose 24.7 percent in August for the 17th straight month of increase. The merchandise trade surplus, a tally of goods exported minus imports, rose to 896.7 billion yen ( $6.72 billion ) from the same month last year, the Finance Ministry announced Monday. The surplus is measured as goods pass customs but before adjustment for seasonal factors. Japan's politically sensitive surplus with the United States, meanwhile, continued to climb, rising 28.4 percent to 431 billion yen ( $3.23 billion ) . It was the 23nd straight month of increase.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0d.htm

Hong Kong
Hang Seng ^HSI 10:45PM 7254.67 -191.29 -2.57%
Star on c-span today, last weeks congressional meeting, said that he had been assured that the HK market intervention was over. We will see.

HighRise

It seems like lately everything has taken on a much larger soapesque quality than ever before. Have the day time TV shows had some layoffs of writers or something? If they have, it would explain thing. Having moved on from daytime TV they are all now spin writers in DC.

I just wish they would have included mor pictures in the Starr report.

alt.binaries.pictures.bill-monica

he tricked a state employee into coming up to his hotel room back when he was the guvner of Arkansas, pulled his pants down, and then tried to get her to do a blowjob.

When she fled the room in horror he called after her telling her not to talk about it because he knew her boss. The implication was she could expect to have trouble in her job if she didn't keep her mouth shut. This is called retaliation and makes wheat Clinton did an official case of sexual harassment.

The lady sued him, and in the course of preparing their case her lawyers tracked down a number of women who had either: 1 ) cooperated with Clinton's sex games and been rewarded with jobs and gifts or 2 ) not cooperated or talked about what Clinton did and been retaliated against.
They were trying to establish a 'pattern of conduct.'

One of the ladies called as a witness was Monica Lewinsky. Lewinsky stated in an affadavit that she hadn't had sex with Clinton and Clinton stated under oath on video that he hadn't had sex with her. They had actually had sex though- each of them had committed perjury- lying to the court ( Clinton problem no. 1. )

Clinton was ordered by the judge in the case not to talk to anyone about his testimony to the court, and in particular not to reveal the details of what he said to anyone. As soon as he got back to the White House he got together with Bettie Currie and talked to her about what he's said and tried to coach her in what she should say to investigators so that her story would match his. This was a case of violating a court order ( Clinton problem no. 2. )

Clinton proceeded to recruit two of his colleagues to find a job for Lewinsky so that she would continue to stay on his side and stick with her false story. Offering people favors so they'll mislead a court is obstruction of justice ( Clinton problem no. 3. )

The judge, who owed her appointment to Clinton refused to hear the case, but her dismissal is now being appealed- and the fact that perjury is now known to have occurred in the first depositions will almost certainly result in reinstatement of the case. If this case goes to trial and Clinton loses- he will be a convicted sexual harrasser ( Clinton problem no. 4. )

Starr is now talking about indicting a number of Clinton's aides- in particular the ones who tried to intimidate legislators and OIC investigators- and Clinton will probably be named as an 'unindicted co-conspirator' just like Nixon was in his day.

He's also hinting at indictments in the Castle Grande fraudulent land sale scheme and the White House Travel Office Firings.

To top it off- Congress is now determined to force Janet Reno to appoint an Independent Counsel to examine Clinton & Gore's involvement in laundering foreign donations during the 1996 campaign. This will threaten to blow the lid off so many secrets that the Democrats may force Clinton to resign just to abort that investigation.

The wheels of justice turn slowly- but they grind extremely fine . . .

Steve

that is only 2 points below cash. Is this the same as 2 points below fair value? So what I am asking is is this signaling a 13 point loss or a 2 point loss?

the PPT will indeed have their work cut out for them Auric. They better have all guns loaded when Starr drops the indictment on Hillary ; ) IMHO a Dow close below 7200 will start a margin call decline, then panic.

They would keep the bugs out while on the surface and allow air to
circulate. They would really promote a quicker dive once below
the surface. They should be installed right away! You may only
get to use them once for diving though...

"religious zealots - all religious zealots,....."

Why is it that so many Liberals who are in denial of Clintons criminal acts lash out and blame Clinton's stupidity on "religious zealots"

Does it help to create and place blame on some sinister make believe right wing religious group or movement. Hillary tried it, therefore I guess it must be true attitude.

There is nothing worse than a blind Liberal in denial, grasping for a reason to explain their man's lies and criminal actions.

The Truth is - "The Devil Made Him Do It" Flip Wilson.

HighRise

Hell hath no fury like that of a woman scorned - - even when she's the one doing the scorning.

Now then, how did this rather inept guy from Arkansas beat the incumbent Bush who was on watch during one of the greatest campaigns in military history - desert storm? Who was also on watch during the collapse of the US's greatest foe ever - glasnost?

It seems like the wild card Perot was in there somewhere.

I was referring to S&P futures contracts. $250 per handle. A move from 1100 to 1000= $25,000. As far as options are concerned, it is said that 80-90% expire worthless. Ergo, I try to SELL more options than I buy. Though the overwhelming majority of my Spoos trading involves futures, I do use PUT---and only PUT---options on occasion. Due to the extreme fluctuations in that market in option volatilty, ( VIX ) , buying puts when VIX is at or near multi-month lows, as it was in July, gives you the compounded profit of increasing VIX and decreasing price as price falls. Week before last, with VIX at a high for the year, I sold PUTS to the subscribers to Crawford and Puetz's letters. As price rallies and VIX drops, the premium literally melts away. Selling puts is far superior to buying calls, since declining VIX eats into profits on calls as price rises. So I use ONLY puts in the S&P market.

Tonight seems to be the inaugural for a new discussion over at USA Gold:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

There are already several posts with some new ones from Friend of Another and a couple of hints that ANOTHER might be posting there sometime soon.

However, the bad news is: No mention of President Clinton or any other scumbag, dirtbag, pile of garbage...nor wagers about crash scenarios...or how Loral's stock is doing tonight, in spite of having been heavily bought by our resident financial genius, etc... Which means that over there, we probably won't have to be constantly scrolling past the same mindless material that has cluttered up this site of late.

O'key....still do not see promising potential for Loral
stock, but thanks for INSIDER's info, seems it's not buy
at this time. Sell your stock ( you know what to buy instead )
and get rid of the management...just kiding. Hope you would
talk to us like pro in the future, both of us do not have
all knowledge...I'm not upset any more.... had a nice
couple of shots with cold smoked salmon...my nerves are
fine again.

Of interest, his record began in May, 1982. His exit was quiet, dignified, and graceful.

For the DOW to close at a 12 year low it would be 1,762.65 81% from its high.

Sudanese president vows "painful" response if US attacks again

KHARTOUM, SUDAN, 20-SEP-1998: An effigy of President Bill Clinton clutching in his hand an Oscar for the "best scandal" and another one
showing him as a donkey with Monica Lewinksy riding on his back appear during a rally in Khartoum, September 20, one month after a US missile strike on a Sudanese drug plant. Sudan's President Omar al-Beshir
vowed, September 20, to retaliate if the US attacked Sudan

Open-Loop: Screen doors. I like that. I'll have the engineers look into it.

Now, off to sleep until the morrow.

I don't know if this was mentioned here as I was away. Sep 13th News of The World ( British Tabloid ) had the following article tucked in page 8.

"Air Smash Escape of Diana Spy"

Ex-Spy Richard Tomlinson, the MI6 renegade who backed claims of a plot against Princess Diana, has had a bizarre brush with death.

It was revealed last night he had been booked on the Swissair jet which crashed in the Atlantic killing all 229 on board.

Tomlinson, 35, only missed the flight at the last minute because he was arrested in America as an undesirable alien.

Last month he demanded to see Judge Herve Stephan, who is investigating the crash which killed Diana.

He claimed she was subjected to a massive surveillance exercise, fuelling theories she was killed by the security services.

Gerald James, a close friend of the family, said after Tomlinson's narrow escape: "They know he is not flavour of the month, but no one is jumping to conclusions."
-----------------------

In today's Sunday Times, the main headline reads "MI6 has agent in the Bundesbank".

You guessed it. It's the same agent, Tomlinson. In this article it says that Tomlinson is considering applying for asylum in Switzerland.

It also reveals, "MI6 has taken out a sweeping injunction preventing The Sunday Times and other newspapers from reporting any of Tomlinson's previously unpublished allegations. However, the new allegations have been released on the internet and legal experts say that means they have effectively been published and are now in the public domain."

Starr report needed no pictures for me, I have a more than active vivid visual imagination.

I am not proud of it but, I have been there done that, never with an employee at work ( "never dip your quill in the office well" ) and I have never had to lie about it under oath in a court of law during a sexual harassment suit, and then again to a grand jury as Clinton did. You know, even when I was stoned falling over drunk, I never got myself in the kind of mess Clinton finds himself.

I really believe that there must have been or is substance abuse in the White House. Why else would such an intelligent man make such an ass out of himself. He throws away the presidency for this, he had to be hammered.

HighRise

As I understand it, its signaling a 12 or 13 point loss. The fair value of the Dec SnP futures should be something like 10 or 11 points above the cash market.

Thanks for posting that, it makes good sense. I'm still new to all this and am figuring it out as I go along - another quick question, which gives you the most leverage for a dollar spent - an option, a future, or an option on a future ? and have you ever bought or sold an option on an index future ? Thanks. The only thing I've played with are put options against specific stocks, I like the cash only "lose only what you bet" aspect of it all.

That is what I thought, but what do they mean on CNBC when they say fair value is + 2 or -4. Is this taking in account that 10 point premium and adjusting for it. So if the futures and cash were equal that would signal a loss of about 10 points and fairvalue would be at +10.
Thanks for the help.

Thanks for the info, we will be right over to get them up to speed on all of the important things that are going on in the world.

HighRise

Hong Kong 7205.45 -240.51 -3.23%
Japan 13655.19 -327.93 -2.35%

Today's "News of the World" ( British Tabloid ) on page 5 has a picture of the supposed half-cast bastard son of the President Clinton. Some excerpts from the article:

Bill Clinton last night faced being forced to provide a DNA sample to prove he is the father of a prostitute's love child. Bobbie Ann Williams, mother of the 14-yr old mixed-race boy, is in hiding-afraid she will be caught up in the Lewinsky furore. But writer and black activist Robert McIntosh, 54, plans legal action to decide once and for all if Bill IS the boy's dad...Two years ago the News of the World told you how she had fled her home after nobody would believe her, even though she passed two lie detector tests. But now Clinton is a proven liar, the 39-yr old may be able to force him to provide a DNA sample to compare with her son Danny's.

Bobbie Ann was just 24 and working as a hooker in Little Rock when she claimed Clinton, then governor, saw her as he was out jogging.

"The other girls were pretty excited. They knew about the governor's jogging trips. He'd pick you up right there in the street."

Bobbie Ann said Clinton paid her 120 for oral sex. They later had a three-in-a-bed romp with a second girl. That was when Bobbie Ann became pregnant. She said, "When my baby was born he was as white as any white child. I told myself, "This is Bill Clinton's baby. I know it is.""

McIntosh added, "When he was governor of Arkansas he loved sleeping with black women, he loves sex with black women.

"Damn it, he's been with enough black women to cast a Tarzan movie. I don't have a problem with that, what I have a problem with is that he won't admit it.

"I have seen that kid a hundred times and I tell you I know that is Billy Clinton's boy. If he denies it, it's quite simple, a DNA test is quick and easy. He was made to take one over the stain on Mica's dress, and he can do it to establish if he's the father.

"If it proves he is, then he can start paying for that porr kid's food, clothes and education, just like he does for Chelsea."

Clinton and his aides have always refused to comment on Bobbie Ann's claims.
=====================

There is a picture of both little Danny Williams ( Clinton's alleged love child ) and Clinton as a boy and there are some striking resemblances.

Must be in that Jefferson blood that William Jefferson Clinton took a liking to dark meat.

Gollum: Don't forget to make sure your engineers check out your screens for y2k compiance!

If they are, I want the address of the vendor. I would love to have something that removes the y2k bugs.

For a look into the secret sex lives of some of the most
vocal family value republicans go to the Salon Magazine Web
Site http://www.salon1999.com/ for some interesting articles - cjk -