Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:02 - ID#433172)
Another factor when matching a generator with an engine is the RPM which will affect the voltage and votage regulation or lack of it. Common RPM is 3600 or 1800, staying as close as possible to the recomended RPM gives the best voltage performance.

Former pres of citicorp says IMF not effective,counter-productive. The banker man seems honest, Writzer I belive, I'm impressed....this has to be a great country to come up with men like this. Right?

Hoosier Gold Bug
(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:07 - ID#401116)
Misc. Ramblings...
I spent a great deal of time tonight thinking about the world economy, interest rates and their impact... A few days ago, a poster here was looking for any information available on the size of global monetary aggregates.

This got me to thinking...The US M2 and M3 are growing at around 7 and 9% respectively. The futures prices for Eurodollars tell us to expect Fed. Funds at 5.25 by Dec. and 5.0 by March. What impact will a 50 basis point drop in Fed Funds have on our economy? What impact would it have on the rest of the world? With French/German 1 year paper at 3.5 % and Japan's 1 year paper at the absurd rate of .23 % ( thats true, just checked at Bloomberg... ) ...What difference does it make if Big Al drops a measly 25 or 50 basis points?

I am getting this ugly feeling the world economy is like the German battleship Bismarck....It's steering mechanism, her rudder has been destroyed by enemy fire and we are going around in circles waiting for the final crash that will take everything to the deepest depths...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:14 - ID#288231)

aurator.......flashes from a forgotten past...visions
of great divisions of armor from the east.....the
reality of a morally corrupt citizenry led by the
erectus.disgacius....disgraceful, and quite hard to
accept the reality of such a tack...the dissolution
of the leader of the free world.......the us.....

better prepare.....

hey mooney-man....your seat awaits too.....the hubbly bubbly
has remained full but un-lit since ted has sojurned to the
place of peace....the peace pipe has stood in its' stead...

...chop-asaki my friend.

the war comes....i fight it now from the front lines of the mind..
who can hear the winds of war???? they are HOWLING..ooooowwwwwwwwwww


(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:15 - ID#215379)
Could it be ?
Buy Rosh Hashanah
Sell Yom Kippur

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:24 - ID#317193) head is ok...but i'm not smart enough to have it hurt:)
Just's all priced in that relic...the dead stuff. Everything else is fluff, smoke and mirrors.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:27 - ID#215379)
Time to buy....
....anything thats beat down in stocks, commodities, oil stocks, financials, metal stocks, if its down for 1998, buy it...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:28 - ID#401460)

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )

Approaching $16 this may be significant ?


(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:36 - ID#240288)
Gold Derivatives

There is a new thread at Silicon Investors called Gold Derivatives. Here is a particularly thoughtful post. Unfortunately, this fellow is arguing the bear case.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:45 - ID#215379)
BOJ-------quick raise rates
Get people buying Japan... lowering rates HAS NOT worked...

Who Cares?
(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:53 - ID#242328)
BOJ - How can you possibly say...
that lowering rates has not worked?

It's kept Japan from imploding for eight years now.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:54 - ID#202123)
Can someone help me out here.
What does L'Sharah Tovah mean. TIA Jerry

(Tue Sep 22 1998 00:58 - ID#342376)
@ Auric and the new "gold derivatives" thread on S.I.
Just wait till Ole 49'r gets over there!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 01:07 - ID#286230)
is already there--first in line and on the other side of the fence.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 01:09 - ID#401460)
Sec. Rubin's Partner @ Goldman Sachs

I hope this has not been posted earlier, if so I am sorry, but the information appears to be very important to us.
9/22/98 -- 12:07 AM

Investment guru, top labor official say U.S. must help solve

NEW YORK ( AP ) - A leading investment guru and one of labor's biggest leaders are among those warning that the United States is closer to crisis than it thinks and must immediately increase its efforts to solve the global economic crisis.

Robert Hormats, a vice chairman at Goldman, Sachs & Co., said the United States is facing ``probably the biggest threat to prosperity since the oil crisis of the 1970s.''

He and AFL-CIO president John Sweeney spoke Monday at New York University Law
School, part of a daylong conference on democracy and the global economy.
President Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair addressed a late afternoon session.

Sweeney spoke of being sure to include the world's devastated workers in any solution to global economic problems.

Hormats' remarks came on a day the International Monetary Fund said that global
capital markets could face more turbulence if Japan does not resolve its pressing economic problems quickly and if financial difficulties in Asia and Latin America growworse.

The IMF's annual report on capital markets also said net private capital flows to emerging markets fell dramatically in 1997, the first significant downturn in a decade.

The report did not address problems in Russia, where the government Monday began printing 1.9 billion rubles, or $55 million, in an attempt to resolve central banking problems.

Hormats and Sweeney spoke just hours after Japanese legislators failed to complete a bill resolving its multibillion dollar banking problems, which sent Japanese stocks into a swoon. Japan's main stock index hit a 12-year low.

Should the Japanese banking system fail, ``It would make the Russian crisis look like a picnic,'' Hormats said.

Hormats, who is working to resolve private investment problems in Russia and flew in for the panel, offered solutions:

-The Group of Seven industrialized nations rededicate themselves and work with emerging markets.

-The United States needs to ``help Brazil in every way. If that falls, lots of other problems will occur,'' Hormats said. ``If we abandon them now, those supporting reform will say we did not come in their hour of need.''

-Build community by helping those who need it most - which also resolves long-term security problems.

``We need to show the softer side of capitalism,'' Hormats said. As an example, he
suggested delivering medicine and food to northern Russia, where workers have not been paid for months on end

``They'll remember that. That will be an important contribution,'' Hormats said. ``We will
look concerned about these countries and not just be lecturers.''

Sweeney - chief of a 13 million-member labor federation that signed up 400,000 new
members last year - spoke for the workers.

``Make no mistake about it, the real economy is taking the hit,'' Sweeney said. ``Workers across the world'' are suffering.

Sweeney spoke of workers in South Korea, where 25 people commit suicide a day, an
increase of 36 percent since the economic crisis began.

He also spoke of places where children leave school to help support their families.

``The middle class is being pushed back into poverty,'' said Sweeney, who subsequently offered a twist on such popular solutions as lowering interest rates in the United States and getting the Japanese economy stimulated.

The world ``needs new international agencies ... not credit agencies or life rafts'' for the rich, he said, taking a shot at such agencies as the IMF, whose prescriptions include saving banks and cutting employee ranks.

``The president is right. We need not be an oasis of prosperity in a sea of crisis.''


(Tue Sep 22 1998 01:28 - ID#240288)
crazytimes--Gold Derivative Thread

Yep, just saw ole 49r. Seems he is not a fan of Mr. Hutch.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 01:36 - ID#215379)
Change in the air...
Is that the cool breeze of fall I feel ?? A change is in the air...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 01:36 - ID#413109)
May I- hoping you'll be the wiser
Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 00:54
weiser ( Can someone help me out here. ) ID#202123:
What does L'Sharah Tovah mean. TIA Jerry

Shanah Tovah, is hebrew ( Year good ) , simply wishing those
who are celebrating the new year of 5759 a happy new year!

Please not only 241 years 'till the next "MILLENIUM".
Not to worry.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 02:06 - ID#286230)
Something is not too good here.
World Has Empathy for Clinton

By MITCH STACY Associated Press Writer

LONDON ( AP ) -- Watching President Clinton in the videotaped

deposition on TV in a west London pub, Tony Charlesworth said

he already knew more than he wanted to about Clinton's sex life.

``I don't need to be seeing this,'' said Charlesworth, a 31-year-old

London businessman. ``They should only show it to people who

need to see it. They're just humiliating him.''

From Johannesburg to Jordan and beyond, many people who

watched Clinton's questioning seemed to share a similar opinion.

Some viewers said they felt sorry for Clinton. Many agreed the

tape never should have been made public as it was on Monday.

But in Kuwait, former oil minister Ali al-Baghli called it a historic


``The head of the most important country is accounting for

breaking the law, just like any ordinary person. I hope this will be

a lesson to us in the Third World,'' said al-Baghli.

Early editions of some British newspapers on Tuesday gave mixed


Rupert Murdoch's The Sun, a British tabloid, led its front page

with the headline, ``Greatest Humiliation in American History.''

But The Times, another Murdoch-owned paper in Britain, ran a

front-page column by a former Conservative lawmaker that

sympathized with Clinton.

``This was medieval. It was cruel. This was like bear-baiting. ...

The questions were more offensive than the answers,'' columnist

Matthew Parris wrote. ``It was humiliating even to the viewer.''

Sky TV showed the entire videotape of Clinton's deposition.

Charlesworth, watching in the Sir Christopher Hatton pub, said he

thought Clinton did as well as he could with the probing,

embarrassing questions.

``He seems like an ordinary man trying to keep his wife and kid

from hearing the facts,'' Charlesworth said.

In Italy, Clinton's testimony was broadcast on two channels with

Italian voice-over.

``Everything they're doing is ridiculous,'' said Andrea Amedeo, 19,

a student in Rome. ``He's the leader of America and the world. ...

Leave him in peace to worry about the real problems.''

In Hong Kong, where passers-by watched on a screen at a

shopping mall, Lisa Wong said she ``supposed most people would

lie to keep such an affair secret.''

Germany's rail system ordered televisions in waiting rooms tuned

to a nature program rather than the Clinton videotape. Rail officials

said they wanted to protect children, but many adult Germans

were outraged by the whole affair.

``I find the whole business extremely upsetting,'' German

Chancellor Kohl said. ``I can only repeat, in my blunt way of

saying it, that it makes me throw up.''

The private Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. appeared to be the only

station in the Middle East carrying the simultaneous broadcast. But

the region was not blacked out -- in Jordan and elsewhere,

residents watched Clinton on Cable News Network.

``I disapprove of broadcasting the tape because I think it is purely

an attack on the democrats and it will not serve any good for the

United States of America,'' said book publisher Usama Sha'shaa,

who was interviewed in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

In Lagos, Nigeria, civil engineer Ike Awokiora tuned into the CNN


``It's pathetic,'' he said. ``The tape is disgusting and it is a shame

that the congressmen opted to inflict such pain on people all over

the world by showing us this rubbish.''

Giorgos Dedemadis, a 42-year-old mathematics teacher in Greece,

contrasted the grilling of Clinton about Monica Lewinsky to the

affair between the late Premier Andreas Papandreou and a younger

woman, whom he married in 1989.

``They say the United States is a mature democracy and a serious

country and you have a spectacle like this,'' Dedemadis said. ``At

least in Greece we were sophisticated enough to separate a leader's

private and public lives. It's clear Clinton's political opponents are

just out to get him. It's sad.''

Swiss German Television showed the video on its second channel

for over an hour, with a voice-over in German.

The right-of-center watchdog Swiss Television and Radio

Association said, ``We cannot see what possible information the

Swiss public could get out of this broadcast beyond pure


In Amsterdam, 45-year-old barkeeper Ruud Knapp watched from

his post at the Cafe Kalkhover.

``It's a soap, it's just about private sexual relationships, it's crazy,''

he said. ``It's very sad for the man. It's embarrassing. He's not

strong anymore.''

(Tue Sep 22 1998 02:53 - ID#41338)
Any time you have a Public Lynching you have to expect this type of reaction from some bystanders, particularly those who have not been bombarded with with all the details of the proceedings.



John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:09 - ID#24135)
Clinton is hard to hit..
I think we can forget about Clinton resigning and
going away quietly.. As they say is Australia .. he's
as cunning as a sh!t house rat .. I hope Starr can do
better than he has so far.. I think round One was

(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:10 - ID#350145)
public is right
the public knows that the real danger is the zealot starr involved in his inquisition - lest we forget the dark ages. and i do know the details.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:14 - ID#404124)

The Beatles

The Continuing Story Of Bungalow Bill

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

He went out tiger hunting with his elephant and gun

In case of accidents he always took his mom

He's the all American bullet-headed saxon mother's son.

All the children sing

Hey Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

Deep in the jungle where the mighty tiger lies

Bill and his elephants were taken by surprise

So Captain Marvel zapped in right between the eyes

All the children sing

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

The children asked him if to kill was not a sin

Not when he looked so fierce, his mother butted in

If looks could kill it would have been us instead of him

All the children sing

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:16 - ID#401460)
The President

I am listening to the President's testimony right now. And if I have heard him correctly he has hung himself up by not being consistant.

He has just changed the his definition of Sexual Relations from an hour ago. And he is continuing to lie about what he did with Monica, He has just been ask about the Cigar he has been surprised that they know all of this.

Earlier, he has admitted to everything now he is denying it??

It appears to me now, aside from public sympathy, that the Congress has enough evidence for starting impeachment proceedings. Whether they will or not is another subject.

The President has brought all of this on himself and in this deposition he just continues to dig a deeper hole. IMHO, if he wasn't mentally sick, he would not be doing this. There is something really wrong with this Guy. It is really scary listening to him. He is a likable guy and I can see why people feel sorry for him - he is pathetic.


John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:17 - ID#24135)
Northam Platinum
News flash .. negotiations for buy out of Northam
platinum by Amplats have fallen through ..
Info is that Amplats offered Rd 4.4 per share and
Northam walked away .. stock traded 3.9 last week ..
fell to 3.5 on friday .. trading 2.6 today with me
a buyer .. stock easy worth 4.4 and more .. If
Northam changes mind .. can get 4.4 this afternoon.
.. The made big profits last quarter with rand
at 5.3 .. they will have major profits this quarter
... They are said to hold a ONE Hundred MILLION oz
Platinum resource .. With shares at about 190 mill
That puts resources at $0.80 per oz..
... No ADR are traded in USA.

John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:21 - ID#24135)
Moles ..
Oh yeah ..
Moles are blind and live underground ..
I get it !

(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:26 - ID#350145)
@ disney
as clinton would have said: that was good - real good. good night.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 03:33 - ID#401460)
Sad Situation

I am not an attorney, but I have been on the witness stand several times and I have to say that Clinton is his own worst enemy on the stand. He has to be an attorney's night mare.

He seems to be confused about whether he is defending himself against sexual harassment or lying under oath.

"She is a good girl woman" Clinton


(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:01 - ID#432148)
Misc report
Gold up US$.60, silver up 3.5 cents, Both France and Germany up over $3. Things are looking up ;- )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:08 - ID#432148)
Aurator- great new NZ apple
Bart may forgive me for using a bit of bandwidth to tell you, as an apple a day man all my life, I just ate a new kind of NZ apple, Pacific Rose, that has excellent texture for this time of year and very good taste. The NZ Braeburns are always my choice in season, no. 1 in my apple ;- ) book. Hate to say it, but they both beat any of the US Washington apples when in season.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:20 - ID#432148)
High Rise - Clinton's testimony
Agree with your take, but I am wondering if most people are maybe going to feel sorry for him and this could boomerang in the public mind in his favor. He is clever and the best actor we have ever had. If it wouldn't be so scary, I would like to see him survive, as I think he makes a lot of Libertarians for us.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:26 - ID#401460)
BC Soap

Whoa! They asking him about Kathleen Willey.
He called her and ask her to his room in Williamsburg. He made sexual advancements towards her later, and now he is accusing her of lying. Let's see now....

All of these women are lying - SURE!

The public "We should forgive him for one mistake." He is well past just one mistake, this guy is a mess!


(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:36 - ID#432148)
Auric and crazy times - ole 49/r
ole 49/r is a she and one sharp gal. Has her own web page which a search may produce, lost the url, sorry. Has a marvelous sense of humor ;- ) At times I think she posts here, but under a different handle.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:39 - ID#401460)

He is a good actor, with a great memory, however with that said, he is up against some pretty good minds. An attorney just had instant recall on when a certain political debate occured.

He may survive but only if they choose to let him remain in office as a continueing target and diversion from what they are really up to.

I strongly feel as others that there may be more info coming forth from Starr and others. After hearing his testimony, I believe he is really unwell - mentally, IMO, if he let himself get in this position. His testimony does not make sense and he is suppose to be better than this.

All Congress has to do is to determine that he has been and will continue to be a problem for the country.

Secretary Rubin is the only reason he is still President.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:44 - ID#401460)

ASIA/EUROPE SPOT PRICE September 22, 1998 04:20AM New York Time Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:59 - ID#31868)
Namaste' to all...
I accept nothing less than kindness...trepidial meander...yesterday I gave the giant rock away to my neighbor for his don't mean nothin iffin yuz can't share it...still listening to Leo...a vice I cannot do without... each and every one of you I send happiness...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 04:59 - ID#255284)
Goldbug 23
Yeah NZ Braeburn is my favourite apple too. Now, hear this... The Pacific rose is a beeeaaauttiful apple, in colour, crispness and taste, it has superior keeping qualities too. However, just like the "Kiwifruit" before, vines of the Pacific Rose have been exported whole to Merca. So, once more, a NZ PRODUCED ( sorry for the caps lock ) cultigen has been exported and others will be able to produce this unique variety. The creative NZ edge has been lost. Stoopid, stoopid monopoly producer boards. Your US customs depts sure can keep our primary products out of your ( ?free ) markets...

sorry mate, my last post to you, got the wires crossed, kitco didn't update properly.

I also spoke to an Egyptian taxi driver in Melbourne, he recalled 1971 when the Aus$ fetched US$1.38. Now the Aus has lost, what 60% since then? He loves gold as honest money and hated the IMF and US banks...He gave me his personal phone number....Beautiful Jewel has heard it all fella said he could only trust gold, and still holds some sovereigns his mother gave him...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:07 - ID#31868)
aurator, Namaste' gulps and puffs from the Island that is Long...
Nothing much to say...hope you live forever to teach the stars how young they are...yup...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:07 - ID#432148)
Aurator - Pacific Rose etc
I always wondered why NZ didn't protect the know how on their apples better, that Washington started producing them. In any event, I think that your climate,soil,etc produces the better apple, and believe me I have done very careful taste tests ;- ) Don't understand how our customs has hurt selling NZ apples in US as I seem to be able to find them with no problem???

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:21 - ID#255284)
"Clinton" ie ---scroll past, unless you might appreciate a gold poem
Goldbug 23
pardon my non sequitor, it was not the apples that are being stopped, ( because of reciprocal import agreements with your California grapes ) but the export to you of timber..Our SE Asian markets have dried up ( wizzened is a word I seldom use, without thinking, uh huh..Donovan ) and it is next to impossible to get import licences for our logs while the green factions in the US are complaining about introducing exotic pests. Actually, while I agree that the importation of exotic pests is one of the greatest hazards to an agrarian nation, I do think that you should take note that these pines are not native to NZ anyway, they just grow at 2-3 times the rate of Canada or europe.

from my book of bon mots, for you.

The Spell of the Yukon

I wanted the gold, and I sought it,
I scrabbled and mucked like a slave.
Was it famine or scurvy -- I fought it;
I hurled my youth into a grave.
I wanted the gold, and I got it --
Came out with a fortune last fall, --
Yet somehow life's not what I thought it,
And somehow the gold isn't all.

No! There's the land. ( Have you seen it? )
It's the cussedest land that I know,
From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it
To the deep, deathlike valleys below.
Some say God was tired when He made it;
Some say it's a fine land to shun;
Maybe; but there's some as would trade it
For no land on earth -- and I'm one.

You come to get rich ( damned good reason ) ;
You feel like an exile at first;
You hate it like hell for a season,
And then you are worse than the worst.
It grips you like some kinds of sinning;
It twists you from foe to a friend;
It seems it's been since the beginning;
It seems it will be to the end.

I've stood in some mighty-mouthed hollow
That's plumb-full of hush to the brim;
I've watched the big, husky sun wallow
In crimson and gold, and grow dim,
Till the moon set the pearly peaks gleaming,
And the stars tumbled out, neck and crop;
And I've thought that I surely was dreaming,
With the peace o' the world piled on top.

The summer -- no sweeter was ever;
The sunshiny woods all athrill;
The grayling aleap in the river,
The bighorn asleep on the hill.
The strong life that never knows harness;
The wilds where the caribou call;
The freshness, the freedom, the farness --
O God! how I'm stuck on it all.

The winter! the brightness that blinds you,
The white land locked tight as a drum,
The cold fear that follows and finds you,
The silence that bludgeons you dumb.
The snows that are older than history,
The woods where the weird shadows slant;
The stillness, the moonlight, the mystery,
I've bade 'em good-by -- but I can't.

There's a land where the mountains are nameless,
And the rivers all run God knows where;
There are lives that are erring and aimless,
And deaths that just hang by a hair;
There are hardships that nobody reckons;
There are valleys unpeopled and still;
There's a land -- oh, it beckons and beckons,
And I want to go back -- and I will.

They're making my money diminish;
I'm sick of the taste of champagne.
Thank God! when I'm skinned to a finish
I'll pike to the Yukon again.
I'll fight -- and you bet it's no sham-fight;
It's hell! -- but I've been there before;
And it's better than this by a damsite --
So me for the Yukon once more.

There's gold, and it's haunting and haunting;
It's luring me on as of old;
Yet it isn't the gold that I'm wanting
So much as just finding the gold.
It's the great, big, broad land 'way up yonder,
It's the forests where silence has lease;
It's the beauty that thrills me with wonder,
It's the stillness that fills me with peace.
by Robert W. Service
[British-born Canadian Poet -- 1874-1958.]

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:28 - ID#255284)
Golden fruits
Goldbug 23
I forgot to mention that I know of an orchardist in Roxburgh, Central Otago, the South Island ( Mainland ) of NZ who claims that the reason his apricots are so tasty is because the soil is gold-bearing.

And, you know, I've tasted apricots from the non gold-bearing soils of the Hawkes Bay and Bay of Plenty of NZ, from the non gold-bearing soils of Kahmir and Israel, I reckon he is right. The best apricots grow in gold-bearing soils.

The reason for the good taste of NZ apples is mainly due to immense research and quality control, we know how to get our fruit to market. Actually, I'm hoping to witness the re-emergence of air-ship technology, we will be able to get our fruit, flowers and vegetables to our markets very efficiently.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:29 - ID#185448)
long no see. The Braeburn-great apple indeed. We get it offered right now in supermarket, though there is apple-harvest-time here in Mostria. Have some cultivars and varieties here that are of cryptobotanic interest. For most of them there is not even an honest german name, just regional slang-designations. But them are REAL apples!

didnt see the video, is it true that BC testified "I was so good, she gave me standing ovulations" ?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:30 - ID#432148)
Aurator - logs
I am a 100% free trader philosophically but I recognize we are governed by special interests in large part. We are growing faster than we use or ship forest products and then have Canadian pressures, so I guess we know what is going on. I would point out that you have very strict immigration policies compared to the US ;- ) I happen to know as my son with high credentials as a mechanical engineer was discouraged by them when he was considering immigrating to NZ.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:36 - ID#240288)
Russian Market Reopen

Take a look.^MTMS&d=1d

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:37 - ID#432148)
Auric & crazy times - ole 49/r
Here is her url:

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:48 - ID#31868)
aurator, Namaste'
BRABO! out to the great lawn...the Island that is Long is such a tempestuous Mistress and now is the time for sure...print-out in one hand...bottle of tequila in the other...Peyote Religion...buttons consumed...pupicular prisms await the Sun rise...thanx for being you...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:48 - ID#255284)
Strict immigration policies
It is quite likely. However we have some severe structural imbalances that result in specialised experts being in surplus here.The population is less than Melbourne ( if you dont count the sheep, and I am thinking of starting a movement to give the sheep the vote, so that might change ) in an area larger than pongoland ( that's the UK ) However, our politicians are as sleazy and as self-serving as anyone's


I bet you have some wonderful varieties of apples for cider and scrumpy in your land of Mossietraler, neither term may translate easily into german but they are alcoholic drinks based upon fermented apples, and I am always interested in these old cultivars...
( I been to Stralia, where our anzac cousins were kind and welcoming )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:55 - ID#255284)
Counting Sheepses....

(Tue Sep 22 1998 05:58 - ID#31868)
Third in the Great House of ARAGORN...Namaste' and gulps and puffs...truly...
and when I meet Sol I shall tell him that you have all 4 of his Aces...thanks for the kind thought...duly noted and more gulp to ya before the Sun rise...and in Honor of you and the zenith...actually just over the horizon...right about where Donald lives...or there abouts...a hefty mug filled with tequila shall be hoisted...shortly thereafter I fade into the Lawn in slow motion...



(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:09 - ID#26793)
Japan may need to spend as much as 20% of GDP to support ailing banks.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:10 - ID#43349)
one green dot

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:14 - ID#401460)
Bill Clinton And His Effect On The Markets
Frankly SpeakingSep 21 1998 4:51PM CST

Bill Clinton And His Effect On The Markets

by Blair G. Jeffery - Senior Investments Analyst
Paul Lam - Senior Markets Writer

He Said...

"I believe the grand jurors can ask me if I ... believe that this conduct falls within that definition ( of sex ) . If it does, then you're free to conclude that my testimony is that I didn't do that. And I believe that you can achieve that without requiring me to say and do things that I don't think are necessary, and that I think, frankly, go too far in trying to criminalize my private life," Bill Clinton said.

He Meant...

That Ken Starr has gone too far. He actually wanted me to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth so help me God. In fact I didn't lie about anything because oral sex is not sex. Kinda like pork rinds ain't really pork.

He Said...

"I think a little bit of concern over the Clinton grand jury videotape was factored in, but now when the reality comes I do think it will again engage us in the discussion about impeachment, about resignation and it just
raises a whole other level of uncertainty," says Robert Froelich of Scudder Kemper. ( CNN "Moneyline", 9/18 )

He Meant...

It remains to be seen if the Congress will impeach our President for his inability to keep his pants zipped. It also remains to be seen if the public will respond by selling their stock to comfort him by showing the world that the bull market has been a Bill Clinton created phenomenon or if they will buy stock because tobacco is not under so much fire.

- This column is strictly meant for humorous purposes

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:18 - ID#26793)
Morning currency news. Brazil dollar outflow news

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:19 - ID#257312)
Goldbug23--ole 49r

Thanks for the url.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:23 - ID#254321)
International markets up -- generally
All: Just what one might expect -- world markets have mysteriously forgotten problems, and are on the rebound. Everyone notice that short term treasuries are still approximately 0.5% lower than they were mid-August? AG may not be lowering rates, but they sure have dropped regardless. Should be very bullish for the markets -- but nothing has really happened. How odd.

Abrose Evans-Pritchard says WJC is a liar, and thinks the American public will eventually see him for what he is. Unfortunately, although AE-Pritchard has been able to see through the smokescreens for years, the American public has not been able to perceive the truth, until recently.

Even then, it is doubtful that the American public will ever see with the clarity of AE-P. Regardless, the seeds of doubt have been planted, and they will fester. WJC will never be the same, and neither will the US markets.


This was from Matt Drudge. Please paste together.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:24 - ID#26793)
Fears of a Brazilian devaluation reach fever pitch.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:28 - ID#333126)
and the russian market seems to have shut down again...^MTMS&d=1d

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:36 - ID#254321)
Trend analysis: A technical question for the market analysts out there

I am looking at gold bullion, commodity price indices, US treasuries ( 30 year ) , and the US dollar. There are clearly cyclical patterns relating all of these numbers -- 3 to 6 month cycles, and 1 - 2 year cycles.

If I multiply any two of the above indices together, I can see enhancement of some proportional cyclic behavior. And if I divide, the inversely proportional behavior is enhanced.

My question is this, what is the best way to analyse cyclical behavior to extract cycles or proportionality? Correlation coefficient? Autocorrelation? Multiple regression analysis?

My problem with these high-powered analytical techniques is that you must specify the time period of correlation ( or inverse correlation ) up front, and that is very time consuming if you use trial and error to choose the periods of interest. Easy to loose the cyclic information you are looking for if you choose unwisely.

Anyone know a way out of this dilemma? There must be something better than multiplication or division for analysis of market data when you do not know the appropriate time duration in advance.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:36 - ID#43349)
Two green dots
In the currencies still just one green dot - - the dollar.
Where have I seen that before.

In the metals now two with both gold and silver now up.

European markets generally up and globex pointing up...

When markets go up or down at the beginning of the trading day it may or may not be significant, but beware the market move that comes in the middle of the trading day.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:41 - ID#254321)
Good morning!

Hope all is well --Kitco hasn't been graced by your posts for a few days.

With regard to Brazil, it seems that Cordozo is very popular. My best guess is that he will try to tread water until the Oct 10 ( 8? ) elections before he does anything drastic. Think he can do it?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:49 - ID#333126)
Clinton's testimony transcript

for those who won't bother with the 4 hour video - the quick read takes 30 minutes ( you gotta speed read, though )

how many times does he say "I refer you to my opening statement" ( in some form or other ) ? grrr.... talk about giving an answer without giving an answer...

where's that bottle of tequila?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:49 - ID#31868)
no transport provider was the message I got from the system administrator
For Reify:

To you and Yvette...each and every pulse that flows through my Heart has the two of very deeply entwined with my Happiness...and what ever you said back at ya...I just can't pronounce it...the mist on the Pond of kindness is but one of my dreams sent your way...and I realize that no one has all the answers...your kind words are conversation which means so very much to me...TRULY...I am the respect filled Kid who will always help you into your slippers...yup...Joy ain't a detergent...nope...



(Tue Sep 22 1998 06:53 - ID#43349)
I would use autocorrelation to identify and extract the major cyclical components to begin with. With a long enough data series, one can then reaverage the subinterval and gain some insight into the cylical pattern.

For instance. Let's say that I determine there is a major cyclical component of 16 months. I can break the data up into 16 month segments and average the segments together. The result will give some idea of whether the repeating cycle is a siusoid, ramp, Walsh function, etc.

This may give some insight into the nature of the root cause, as well as suggest a better pattern for correlation than the standard sinusoid used in Forier analysis.

One then creates a 16 month cyclical pattern and makes a best fit to the original data and subtracts it from the data. One then does another auto correlation on the data which now has the 16 month cyclical pattern removed, and identifies the next major cyclical pattern.

Somewhat tedious, but can produce VERY meaningful results...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:04 - ID#286230)
Bill won the Grand Jury Poll.
Rolly: Do not assume that yesterday's "public lynching" Starred the Prez. And don't assume the Euro viewers had not been bombared with the details. CNN washes US dirty linen all over the globe 24 hours a day. Yesterday I had 4 US and 2 Canadian networks pumping the Prez into my rec room --probably more than most viwers in the US. Here is the first poll I could find. And I know polls don't mean anything and the real deal is in Congress--sure.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:04 - ID#254321)
Thanks! Got to get ready for work
Gollum: I knew there were some experts out there. One additional question. If you do try to overlap a ( semi ) periodic signal, say of 16 months from a much longer time series, that means you must know the phase relationships, as well as the frequency relationships. That introduces yet another variable you must guess correctly. Any way around that, or must one just knuckle under, and work by trial and error on that as well?

One problem with trial and error is that if you home in on the wrong periodicity, you may get fooled into missing something more significant than what you actually found. Something like using Newton's analysis manually but missing the most interesting signal peak.

Ever use wavelet analysis for signal extraction?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:13 - ID#289357)

You might try a search of this site for some additional ideas on your cyclical pattern analysis problem.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:14 - ID#26793)
I was in beautiful Maine most of last week. Still catching up with stuff I missed.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:19 - ID#289357)
Tech. Analysis of the XAU

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:20 - ID#26793)
@JTF; Brazil is using the "Japan Plan", a badly timed tax increase to please the IMF

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:34 - ID#26793)
BOJ appears to have made a large loan to an ailing financial institution.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:46 - ID#257312)
Brazil Stock Market

Opens in about an hour. Near real time quote--^BVSP&d=1d Taken quite a tumble over last 3 months--^BVSP&d=3m

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:50 - ID#289357)
Charting your futures - daily commentary on markets

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:51 - ID#35571)
The phase is immaterial because of the nature of the decomposition proceedure. The phase relaitonship of the eventually determined cyclical pattern to the segment ends depends only upon arbitrary position one chooses to initiate the segmentation.

For instance, lets say there is a twelve month cycle apparent. One can break the data into segments starting at the beginning of January. After averageing let's say it's determined a triangular pattern with it's peak in July seems to fit well. If one had chosen to break the data into segments beginning in June, he would have found a sort of zig zag with it's peak in July. Laying a couple of zig zag cycles next to each other would reveal it was really a triangle starting in January with it's peak in July. In the first case the phase relationship of the peak to the segment gives the peak in the middle. In the second a month from the beginning. The end result however, is the same.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 07:59 - ID#289357)
Princeton Economics Metals Commentary

New York Futures:


Silver, Copper BEARISH


Palladium CAUTION

Click on Global Market View ( Left Menu )

then click on Item #4. ( Right Menu )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:04 - ID#35571)
Since we are using autocorrelation to determine periodicities, we are using the data itself to make the pick. There is no trial and error. If autocorrelation does not reveal any major cyclical periodicity the data is probably too random.

Taking out the major cycles first in this fashion helps to unmask other cycles in the data that would be otherwise hidden.

Once one has a set of various waveforms of various peridicites and has extracted them, the remaining data is useful too. Since all the seasonal, political, and other cyclical effects have been removed, the remaining data coresponds to various random real world events.

If one were analysing silver say, one might observe a very discernable spike beginning where Warren Buffet began buying silver. If one had accounted for all cyclical effects and saw a sudden move in the remaining "noise", one might suspect there was a "strnge event" happening that one might not notice otherwise.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:05 - ID#257312)
Head of Japan's Financial Supervisory Agency "Not Heard" LTCB Facing Credit Crunch

That is certainly reassuring. Translation-- The LTCB is in a liquidity crunch.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:11 - ID#35571)
One green dot
Still one green dot in curriencies. Back to one green dot in metals.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:27 - ID#35571)
Merrill Lynch
I hear ML is going to cut back, lay off about 500 workers. I thought brokerage firms would be doing very well. With all the turmoil volumes are up, aren't they?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:31 - ID#35571)
Asian metal markets

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:37 - ID#225220)
Gollum, Regarding ML
The difference between the wealthy folk and the common folk ( not that brokers earn a 'common' salary ) is that during a recession, the wealthy folk lay the common folks off to maintain their lifestyle.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:46 - ID#287312)
Flurry of indictments this weekend ????
I'm now buying what I call Hillary Put Options. The Starr artillery battery as only fired 2 shots. The forward observer checks for damage and prepares to call in the full barrage. Place fingers firmly in ears.

John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:49 - ID#24135)
hootenanny tonight !!

Salty ..
we like the same durn songs ..

John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 08:55 - ID#24135)
Movie Time
Brother Oris and film fans everywhere..
Saw good movie last night ..
Captain Conan .. French movie
about WW I in lesser known theater.
.. Top film .. please see if you
can and comment.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:00 - ID#333126)
hmm... maybe this guy should stick to predicting technology issues rather than macroeconomics,176,245,00.html?

who wants to give him a lesson in gold backed monetary systems?

John Disney
(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:07 - ID#24135)
Whas Happenen Baby
to all
Strange doings on the JSE gold board .. golds off
60 points BUT rand has firmed to 5.93 from 6.13
yesterday .. 3.3 % stronger against a firm $

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:08 - ID#335190)
the typical libertarian argument that all exchanges are "voluntary" and "mutually negotiated" @ SEX
[PEN-L:11749] Re: Prostitutes and "Choice"

Jim: And they are all too often right, I would say. More frequently than many would like to admit a marriage is just a long term contract to provide sexual and other services in exchange for income and job tenure.
( Jane Austin wrote about his in her novels, without calling a spade a spade but the lesson is spelled out clear as day. )

Prostitutes negotiate short-term contracts, spouses negotiate long term ones ( often with legal documents these days ) . In general I think one of the best descriptions of capitalism is a society of generalized prostitution.

We are all prostitutes, the only choice we have is which part of our selves are we going to make available for work. Some make their genitals available, others their hands and arms, others their minds, others their personalities and emotional expressiveness ( McDonald's hires only those who can smile on demand ) .

Response ( Jim C ) Harry, I'm sure you don't mean it this way, but frankly the above sounds a lot like the typical libertarian argument that all exchanges are "voluntary" and "mutually negotiated" as other wise why would they have occurred?

Further there are some unique dangers and forms of degradation involved when, as you put it, the commodity being exchanged is "use of genitals".
Further, prostitution involves much more than just "use of genitals" and it is not petit-bourgeois morality or even abstract or a priori notions to suggest that very tangible and very dangerous and very injurious forms of degradation occur within typical exchanges that go on in the sex industry.

The same can be said about exchanges and products in the porn industry.and that they have calculated costs and benefits and calculated that probable benefits outweigh probable costs and risks.

But these women are very few and studies show that almost all of them suffered physical and sexual abuse at young ages suggesting they may be simply rationalizing their limited options and the real reasons for their "free choice".

Jim: What studies are those? What does it mean to "rationalize their limited options"? What are the "real reasons" and what do they matter?

What are the "real reasons" some of us are professors; what are the "real reasons" others refuse to prostitute their minds and stick to manual labor?

The answers, I think, are as many as the people, at the level of individual psychology. We are shaped by myriad forces, we make choices the way we do under lots of different circumstances and for lots of reasons, conscious and unconscious.

Response ( Jim C ) Generally I agree with what you are saying but for academics, and yes I have certainly seen a lot of whoring in academia, the conditions, options and dangers are simply nothing like what typical prostitutes ( even in controlled borthels ) face every day.

FWIW @ SEX as a legal term ?? ( Be Quiet...Consume..And Die )
Whoring is JOB ONE ( Industry ) ......Yes?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:16 - ID#35571)
Stock futures pointing up. Bonds down. Dollar up. Gold steady. Silver up. Oil down.

Looks like the market will start off up.

Stay tuned for mid-day developements...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:22 - ID#434108)
Source of 'economic reviews' - data, charts, perspective; U.C. Riverside

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:35 - ID#432130)
I just checked out that link... I cannot understand how it is that people who "chart" the markets are blinded by world market trends and events. How can anyone TRUST a "chart" based on previous market performance when its an entirely new game. Ah Ha... They dont know its a new game, do they?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:39 - ID#335190)
Whoring @ Canada 9.2-USofA 7.5-Ukraine 2.8-Russia 2.4
September 22, 1998

TABLE-Country rankings from corruption watchdog

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International released the following table ranking 85 countries according to its Corruption Perception Index, which records the degree of corruption seen by businesspeople, risk analysts and the general public.

A ranking of 10 indicates that the country is perceived to be "highly clean", while a ranking of 0 indicates that a country is perceived to be "highly corrupt".

September 22, 1998

Big IMF borrowers rank high in corruption index

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Some of the biggest recipients of international loans are seen as among the most corrupt countries in the world, according to a survey released by corruption watchdog Transparency International Tuesday.

Transparency's Corruption Perceptions Index ranks 85 countries in terms of how the public and the investment community view the risk of corruption.

"This poll of polls provides insights into perceptions of corruption, it makes no effort to measure corruption itself,"

Transparency International vice chairman Frank Vogl said in remarks prepared for release at a news conference.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:45 - ID#258427)
Bart...Mr. Kitco
Sorry to bother you...but The Frames are stuck at 09:11...tia

(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:54 - ID#222231)
ANOTHER post on 9/22/98-Only for those interested in ANOTHER'S THOUGHTS.
Post seems to be incomplete.

Flash Gordon
(Tue Sep 22 1998 09:57 - ID#284318)
Clittone and a whole load of dead people
The following is a list of dead people connected with Bill Clinton:
James McDougal - Clinton's convicted Whitewater partner died of an
apparent heart attack, while in solitary confinement. He was a key witness in
Ken Starr's investigation.
Mary Mahoney - A former White House intern was murdered July 1997 at a
Starbucks Coffee Shop in Georgetown. The murder happened just after she was
to go public with her story of sexual harassment in the White House.
Vince Foster - Former white House councelor, and colleague of Hillery Clinton
at Little Rock's Rose law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the head,ruled a
suicide. Ron Brown - Secretary of Commerce and former DNC Chairman. Reported to
have died by impact in a plane crash. A pathologist close to the
investigation reported that there was a hole in the top of Brown's skull resembling a
gunshot wound. At the time of his death Brown was being investigated, and
spoke publicly of his willingness to cut a deal with prosecutors.
C. Victor Raiser II - & - Montgomery Raiser Major players in the Clinton fund
raising organization died in a private plane crash in July 1992. Paul Tulley - Democratic National Committee Political Director found dead in
a hotel room in Little Rock, September 1992. Described by Clinton as a
"Dear friend and trusted advisor". Ed Willey - Clinton fund raiser, found dead November 1993 deep in the woods in Virginia of a gunshot wound to the head. Ruled a suicide. Ed Willey died on the same day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped her in
the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey was involved in several
fund raising events.
Jerry Parks - Head of Clinton's gubernatorial security team in Little
Gunned down in his car at a deserted intersection outside Little Rock.
son said his father was building a dossier on Clinton. He allegedly
threatened to reveal this information. After he
died the files were mysteriously removed from his house.
James Bunch - Died from a gunshot suicide. It was reported that he had
"Black Book" of people containing names of influential people who
prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas.
James Wilson - Was found dead in May 1993 from an aparent hanging
suicide. He
was reported to have ties to Whitewater.
Kathy Ferguson - Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny Ferguson died in May
was found dead in her living roon with a gunshot to her head. It was
ruled a
suicide even though there were several packed suitcases, as if she was
somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a co-defendant along with Bill Clinton in
Paula Jones lawsuit. Kathy Ferguson was a possible corroborating
witness for
Paula Jones.
Bill Shelton - Arkansas state Trooper and fiancee of Kathy Ferguson.
of the suicide ruling of his fiancee, he was found dead in June, 1994
of a
gunshot wound also ruled a suicide at the gravesite of his fiancee.
Gandy Baugh - Attorney for Clinton friend Dan Lassater died by jumping
out a
window of a tall building January, 1994. His client was a convicted
Florence Martin - Accountant sub-contractor for the CIA related to the
Seal Mena Airport drug smuggling case. Died of three gunshot wounds.
Suzanne Coleman - Reportedly had an affair with Clinton when he was
Attorney General. Died of a gunshot wound to the back of the head,
ruled a

suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.

Paula Grober - Clinton's speech interpreter for the deaf from 1978
until her
death December 9, 1992. She died in a one car accident.
Danny Casolaro - Investigative reporter. Investigating Mena Airport and
Arkansas Development Finance Authority. He slit his wrists, apparent
in the middle of his investigation.
Paul Wilcher - Attorney investigating corruption at Mena Airport with
Casolaro and the 1980 "October Surprise" was found dead on a toilet
June 22,
1993 in his Washington DC apartment. Had delivered a report to Janet
Reno 3
weeks before his death.
Jon Parnell Walker - Whitewater investigator for Resolution Trust Corp.
Jumped to his death from his Arlington, Virginia apartment balcony
August 15,
1993 Was investigating Morgan Guarantee scandal.
Barbara Wise - Commerce Department staffer. Worked closely with Ron
Brown and
John Huang. Cause of death unknown. Died November 29, 1996. Her brused
body was found locked in her office at the Department of Commerce.
Charles Meissner - Assistant Secretary of Commerce who gave John Huang
special security clearance, died shortly thereafter in a small plane
Dr. Stanley Heard - Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health Care
Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in a small
crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton's advisory council
personally treated Clinton's mother,
stepfather and brother.

Barry Seal - Drug running pilot out of Mena Arkansas, Death was no
Lawhorn Jr. - Mechanic, found a check made out to Clinton in the
a car left in his repair shop. Died when his car hit a utility pole.
Stanley Huggins - Suicide. Investigated Madison Guarantee. His report
never released.

Hershell Friday - Attorney and Clinton fund raiser died March 1, 1994
his plane exploded.

Kevin Ives & Don Henry - Known as "The boys on the track" case. Reports
the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena arkansas airport drug
Controversaial case where initial report of death was due to falling
on railroad track. Later reports claim the 2 boys had been slain before
placed on the tracks. Many linked to the case died before their
could come before a Grand Jury.

Keith Coney - Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a truck
July, 1998

Keith McMaskle - Died stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988
Gregory Collins - Died from a gunshot wound January 1989.
Jeff Rhodes - He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump
April 1989.
James Milan - Found decapitated. Coroner ruled death due to natural
Jordan Kettleson - Was found shot to death in the front seat of his
truck in June 1990.
Richard Winters - Was a suspect in the Ives / Henry deaths. Was killed
in a
set-up robbery July 1989

Major William S. Barkley Jr.
Captain Scott J. Reynolds
Sgt. Brian Hanley
Sgt. Tim Sabel
Major General William Robertson
Col. William Densberger
Col. Robert Kelly
Spec. Gary Rhodes
Steve Willis
Robert Williams
Conway LeBleu
Todd McKeehan

The Clinton Administration has the highest amount of transfer requests
its Secret Service agents than any other presidential administration.
.. so if any body asks, I didn't send you this.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:01 - ID#41338)
Silverbaron Re: Japanese Candlesticks
I found the Japanese Candlestic information you refered me too, to be very interesting. I had no idea it dates back to over 300 years ago.

Could you please refer me to good introductory material in a book format on Japanese Candlestick charting. I've seen quite a few references on the internet to books dealing with this subject, but am unsure which one would be best suited for an introductory level.

Thank you for your time.



(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:06 - ID#20767)
Transparency International
Source of funding for this NGO is not easily available; however, it appears that the World Bank is heavily involved ( see 'Board of Directors' ) .

This becomes ( is ) a fascist tool in the wrong hands!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:17 - ID#222231)
PH in_LA-Another grenade about to be lobbed at WJC?
22 Sep 1998 06:42:14 -0000
Talk USA Alert

Talk USA Alert ->

Drug sniffing dogs have discovered evidence
of illegal drugs in and around the Oval Office
according to my sources. This was also
confirmed by Gary Aldrich, former FBI security
officer for the White House.
Be sure to stop by for
all the details beginning Tuesday.
Sources also provide additional insight
into the reasons Kenneth Starr has not made
all of his evidence known to Congress.

If you live in these areas, be sure to tune
in an listen:

9/22 KTSA San Antonio, TX 2:30 pm Central
9/23 WWBR Detroit, MI 8 am Eastern
Ted Nugent and Jazz McKay
9/23 KKMC 880am, WHRI 5.745 short wave,
4pm - 5 pm Pacific, 7pm - 8pm Eastern
Stan Montieth
9/25 99.3 fm, Ann Arbor, MI 8am - 9am Eastern
Rev. Rick Stawcutter

Finally, the long-awaited moment is nearly
here. Real audio archives of my radio program
will be available by the end of the week. It's
expensive, but I'm going to give it a try.
The service will be provided soon, and you'll
receive an e-mail alert when it begins.

To unsubscribe, write to
Start Your Own FREE Email List at

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:18 - ID#35571)
@Flash Gordon
Coincidence, all just coincidence. And if anyone asks tell them that's what I said.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:18 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation index continues to rise, and is about to cross the zero line. This is healthy looking.
The new low on Toronto Mining Issues is chopping around the benchmark 5 or less new lows per day. In the last 10 days, five days have been below the benchmark. This is neutral.
The trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last low is at 4487 this week. ( This is the Toronto Gold Index ) . This stop loss level has worked very well in the past.

Rolly, You can get great textbooks on Candlesticks from Traders Press. They were written by Steve Nisan. Just do a search on "Steve Nisan"

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:26 - ID#35571)
DOW +2
The time of day that a market turns can be significant. If the overnight markets have been down and the morning stock futures are pointing down, it is to be expected that the day traders will come in on the short side.

If the day traders come in on the sort side in the morning and the market settles out and holds fairly steady through the day, it is to be expected that they might get out and create a "trader's spike" at the end of the day.

If however, during the middle of the day for no apparent reason the market should turn significantly down, it bodes well for neither man nor beast.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:31 - ID#147201)
Oak re Datek
Thanx for reply yesterday. Have yo got the 800 # for Datek? I wonder how the 5 got there. Was it Datek or the computer??

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:34 - ID#269409)
@ "Is it True?"
"Mr. it true that you're the President of the United States?"

Bill.... "Well......that all depends on what you mean by "is".... also "True" can take on different meanings depending on the context, what is "truth" after all? and are we speaking present tense or maybe past tense? Also, my political enemies might have an agenda here and....."

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:48 - ID#289357)
Rolly @ candlesticks

Rolly -

You're right - there are a number of books around on Japanese Candlesticks.

I'm sorry, but can't really recommend one over another as introductory texts, and I don't personally own any of them. Most of the candlestick information I know, was just picked up a little along.

The prices for the books are pretty high ( $50-60 ) and a couple are available at

but I would try to get one from the library if you can, before buying. I did find this additional site from iqc which looks pretty interesting:

By the way, I believe that among the services that iqc has available to subscribers, is an automated candlestick recognition program.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:54 - ID#35571)
DOW -29
Slowly moving down...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 10:55 - ID#35571)
DOW -45
Slighlty faster drop...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:01 - ID#269409)
Brazil...World Bank ready to loan
Tuesday September 22, 10:41 am Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

World Bank ready to help Brazil if needed-sources

WASHINGTON, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - The World Bank is ready to offer new loans to Brazil if an
international rescue package is arranged, bank sources said on Tuesday.

``The World Bank stands ready to be a significant contributor in any international package of support
agreed in support of Brazil,'' a World Bank source said.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:04 - ID#147201)
mozel, HighRise and Donald Jap /G-7
From your posts and other news, it looks like the Japs are about ready to blackmail G-7 etc. I can;t see how they can get by with any system to bail out banks whether it's the LTCB or what ever without more big money. Evidently they have known this for some time and have run out of patience. I would appreciate some comments.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:10 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz..... 4 letters that spell your doom.....
These four letters Puetz will prevent your "prophecy" coming true. "401K".

Yes, mutual funds had a net inflow this past week, and week before, and before. And this on the heels of 2 months back to back net outflows from mutual funds.

Your timing is again flawless. You managed to singlehandedly, cause the turnaround in this Bear market by predicting the all out crash. You have again failed to factor in the tax law changes leading to 401K and IRA accounts, which virtually GUARANTEE that when we have a sound economy, coupled with full employment, it's a virtual gurantee that massive billions in capital will be flowing into the equities market, even during "bad times" spite of the ocassional downturn, and correction.

Our market may be in a Mini Bear phase, but will not collapse with so many economic indicators positive, and so much new money flowing into automated retirement savings accounts.

Recently, I have taken a very large position in my own company's stock. Puetz...would you please make more crash predictions here at Kitco on a frequent basis, so that the overall market will rise, creating better conditions for my own equity position to do the same. Thanks.....

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:14 - ID#286249)
Coffee breaks...
Time lines : Cartoons tackle the temporal
The Yomiuri Shimbun International Cartoon Contest-take a break, take a look, have a chuckle ...


An interesting site--Origins and Ideology of the Wirtschaftsring ( among others )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:17 - ID#404410)
LGB Let's lend money to Japan also
The only formula the IMF has is to lend money. We're going to lend to Brazil, so why not Japan? Lend, Lend, Lend. They don't have any dynamic thinkers willing to initiate NEW bold plans.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:22 - ID#213265)
@the scene
My question on banking is that if the government ( I.E. citizen/taxpayers ) is going to be the 'bank' of last resort ( the one that bails out the banks ) , then why bother having the other banks in the first place?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:24 - ID#254321)
Cycles Analysis
Gollum: I understand. You begin with multiple autocorrelation analyses to identify repetitive events - sine wave, delta function, ramp, etc. Then, once you have identified a periodic event of some kind, you break the time series into segments to study it some more. This way phase and frequency do not really play a role, with the exception that there may be some amplitude and duration variation from cycle to cycle. This will just reduce the composite signal, unless amplitude and duration are normalized somehow. Once each of these events have been catalougued, they can be individually subtracted from the time series for additional analysis.

When you get to the point of trying to predict future events, an avaeraged composite of all previous cyclic events of that kind would be best. The idea would be to catalogue all repetitive events, either linear or nonlinear, in the hope that a predictive model can be created. This is presumably the essence of the MRCI model, and the Jeil model, undoubtedly created with similar, but different methods.

Analysis of such a model would need to be iterative, as the rules could change abruptly when major events shape the market response, such as the discovery the WJC might have been doing drugs in the White House, or the Bank of Japan discovers that they are insolvent due to a 'rogue' trader. Who knows what nasty surprises lurk out there?

Wouldn't it be nice if we could catalogue the nature of major surprise events so that we could predict new aperiodic outcomes? Catastrophe/Fibonacci theory would predict such a possibility, IMHO. Of course this requires that the analyst is sufficiently skilled to know the difference between a 'routine' event that does not disrupt former patterns, and a 'new, catastrophic' event that completely reshaps the market periodicity. Tall order, IMHO.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:27 - ID#411320)
Mr. Clinton ,Did YOU Smoke Marijuna?
No, I did?.. but I would if I could,but I did't inhale.
You go Bill! Your good for gold. Acapulco Gold that is

Gold Fevor
(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:37 - ID#432137)
Rangy all sold out, they sold all interests
in gold mines. Another company bit the dust.
Tobad, I really enjoyed Rangy.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:38 - ID#254321)
Cartoon of bureaucrat with watch handcuffs.
SDRer: How appropriate for the IMF. A bureaucratic organisation adapted to respond to perceived financial crises in a stereotyped fashion devised in years gone by. Perhaps at one time their recommendations actually worked.

The ossified organization responds to all current crises in the same manner, triggering a highly predictable unfortunate temporal sequence of events, hence the watch handcuffs.

Do you know of any country that has successfully followed IMF recommendations? This is much more than just the inherent problems with FIAT currencies per se.

I guess this cartoon could also represent the Japanese bureaucracy, or any bureaucracy that has had enough time to get set in its ways, like our own Merican Federal Government.

Aragorn III
(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:41 - ID#212323)
aurator! your 5:21 was a PRINT. Thank you!......--Hey, Tolerant1,...
got Camdessus?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:44 - ID#35571)
Pretty much so, but there are some differences. Jeil includes ALL events and forces a match up to the present moment ( actually he drops off data that has become too aged ) , thus non-periodic events influence the fit.

The MRCI method looks for years that correlate well against the given year over some arbitrary time span, say the last 108 days or some such. The idea here is that the market will behave this year much as it has in
that past year or years which it matches.

The method I described attempts to weed out known cyclical influences. These can then be used to progect what the "undisturbed" market might be expected to do under those influences alone. One can then either trade the expected path, or one can watch for significant departures ( which could indicate unexpected buying or selling by some big player ) .

Both the presence of an unexpected move or absence of an unexpected move can be significant.

I am reminded of a little town out in the midwest where the police department suddenly recieved a bunch of phone calls asking what had happend along about three o'clock in the morning. As far as they could tell NOTHING had happened. It was a puzzler.

Later it was determined the local freight train always came through town at about that time, but that particular night the railroad had canceled that run. Apparently the lack of train noise at three in the morning had awakened a number of people who were "sure" that something unusual had happened to the extent they called the constabulary to find out what was going on.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:49 - ID#225220)
Regarding the Clinton polls... Ah, to make gold polls out of this stuff..
Has anyone else noticed that the majority of the 'people' interviewed for their opinion on Clinton, post Video, are black women who support him but can't tell you what are the 'good' things that he's done? Also, whenever there is a white male interviewed ( rare ) they seem to fall in to two groups. The first ( and not so common these days ) is an outright liberal demorat. The second group is much more reserved and implies that there is something wrong here...

Now, what would happen if those same attitudes were applied to the purchase of precious metals? 'I don't know why I'm buying it, but it's done good things...' Somehow, we've got to 'spin' an ad campaign out of this. Yes, I think this could be very good for what ails us. :- )

And the second group from the above could be the Central Bonkers?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:49 - ID#35571)
FROWN. I meant to say:

Both the presence of an unexpected move or absence of an expected move can be significant.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:52 - ID#333126)
gwyz__A (re: paradigms)
The average man has been brainwashed into believing in the new paradigm where gold is unnecessary in the fiscal world.

Perhaps it is but the perception of the masses that has been deluded. Could we have entered a new paradigm and just as quickly gone to yet *another*?


(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:52 - ID#255226)
Trading - SnP
If you are still long SnP or E mini from yesterday's lows place a stop a tick under today's lows. The market gapped open and pulled back into the intersection of the 1x1 Gann lines, that intersection comes in at 1032 today. If the market trades down though 1032 it may drop like a rock. Added to my position at 1033, stops at 1031.

EZ Believer
(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:54 - ID#173262)
Gold Frvor....RANGY.....Please elaborate

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:54 - ID#424424)
Ah ha! We all knew Monica didn't tell all.....
cocaine residue found on "famous dress"......


SEPTEMBER 22, 1998

Drug use probed in White House

Reports say 25 percent of staff has history

By David M. Bresnahan

Copyright 1998,

As heads are still spinning over sex, perjury,

abuse of power and security scandals in the White

House, trained dogs brought in by the Secret

Service detected drug use in and around the Oval

Office, sources tell WorldNetDaily.

While Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr is said

to be aware of the drug problems in the White

House, no mention of such problems were in his

report to Congress. But reports indicate as many

as 25 percent of the White House staff have a

history of illegal drug use, say the sources.

According to security protocols, White House

clearance is supposed to be denied those with

significant illegal drug use. Past administrations

welcomed FBI checks to weed out applicants and

avoid scandal. But the Clinton administration has

stymied FBI efforts to keep known drug users off

the White House staff.

A security clearance is required to gain access to

various parts of the White House and to see

certain documents. Yet, even as an intern, Monica

Lewinsky had a top-level security clearance

which enabled her to gain access to the White

House at any time, day or night. Such access for

an intern was not unusual, just questionable, say

FBI sources. Several sources have reported

independently of each other that Monica

Lewinsky's dress not only had evidence of a

sexual encounter with Bill Clinton, but also traces

of cocaine.

"There was a significant amount of cocaine

residue," said one source close to the FBI. Another

source with ties to the White House Secret Service

confirmed the allegations and was astonished the

Starr report does not mention more about the


"The dress is not the only evidence Starr has

regarding drugs in the Oval Office," said the


Former FBI agent Gary Aldrich, who was

stationed at the White House during the Bush and

early Clinton years and who was responsible for

background checks of prospective employees,

confirmed reports that drug users have the run of

the chief executive's offices.

Allegations of drug use have long followed Bill

Clinton throughout his political career. He is

known to have had regular social activity with

Dan Lasater, a convicted cocaine dealer, in

Arkansas during the 1980s. Lasater was arrested

for illegal drug trafficking, along with Roger

Clinton, the president's brother. While Lasater

was in jail, Patsy Thomasson was given power of

attorney to run Lasater's investment business.

That business was suspected of laundering illegal

drug money, according to a former investigator

involved with that case. Lasater was later

pardoned by Gov. Clinton.

The fact that Thomasson was placed in charge of

the White House employee drug-testing program

alarmed Aldrich, who voiced his concerns of

White House security problems in his book

"Unlimited Access."

Previous administrations used the FBI

background investigation as a type of screening

process for potential White House employees.

The Clinton administration looked at the FBI as an

obstacle to be overcome, charged Aldrich.

"They took a totally cavalier attitude towards

security clearance investigations and totally

disregarded what the FBI brought to them by way

of evidence of serious wrongdoing in a persons

past," said Aldrich. "They kept the Secret Service

from even knowing the results of these

investigations. Which of course is absurd. They're

the ones that are supposed to protect the White

House and the president from unsuitable people

in the first place. But they didn't want the Secret

Service to know that upwards of 25 percent of

their staff members had serious experience with

significant illegal drugs, for example."

Drug use was not just by low-level staff. It

included "Cabinet-level people too," said Aldrich.

"It was like a circus side show in the Clinton

White House, except it wasn't funny and it

certainly wasn't entertaining," he added.

His investigations turned up other problems that

should have also prevented a large number of the

Clinton staff from getting security clearances. He

found many violations of federal laws, failure to

pay student loans, previous employment

dishonesty that resulted in dismissals, refusal to

pay federal income taxes, and some had serious

mental disorders requiring medication to function

and maintain emotional stability.

Aldrich says his information and evidence points

to continued drug use and security problems in

the White House to this very day.

"They treated drug use as a normal part of their

lifestyle activity," he said. "This was the scary

thing. There was no evidence that they felt

inclined to stop using drugs once they became a

White House employee."

The use of drugs in the White House may be

shocking, but not as shocking as other evidence

Aldrich and other sources claim Starr has not yet

reported to Congress. There is evidence involving

abuse of power surrounding the White House

Travel Office scandal, and the misuse of FBI files.

National security may also have been

compromised when favors were done for Red

Chinese agents in exchange for

multimillion-dollar campaign donations.

Aldrich and other sources speculate that the

failure of Starr to release information on these

scandals may be a deliberate effort to spare the

country the agony of dealing with such difficult


"Perhaps as a country we would have difficulty

going there to determine that the president, or

some of his people in fact were involved in

treasonous matters," said Aldrich. "So maybe it's

just easier to let him off the hook on a sexual

escapade matter. I don't know. Ken Starr's had

four years and lots and lots of FBI agents to look

into all these things, but I don't think Ken Starr's

empowered to make these kinds of lofty huge

decisions on how to proceed. If in fact these

reports are softballs on Travelgate and Filegate,

then I'm going to be suspicious that somebody or

somebodies have sat down and decided that it's

just not politically digestible to report what

Clinton has actually done."

Aldrich speculates that Starr may be hoping

Clinton resigns rather than face the music of more

serious wrongdoing. But the former FBI agent

does not believe that strategy will work. He says

Clinton thinks he can overcome such scandals.

"I don't believe he's going to go easily," says

Aldrich. "It's going to be a long, dirty battle that

will be destructive to the country in many ways."

David Bresnahan, a WorldNetDaily contributing

editor, hosts "Talk USA Investigative Reports"

and is the author of "Cover Up: The Art and

Science of Political Deception." His email address


 1998 Western Journalism Center

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:54 - ID#335379)
Hello Polarbear: Is it time to dump Rangy yet? Please Email response, as I can't get online
for a few days.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:55 - ID#350179)
I know it's (Y2K) been done to death here,
But perhaps newbies might want to see what's recently hitting the "mainstream" press in CO. Just an FYI.

What will happen to you?>

Health care systems try to prepare

Government lags in Y2K solutions

Embedded chips a challenge

Y2K Web sites to visit while your PC still works

General Info lead-in site

(Tue Sep 22 1998 11:58 - ID#187109)
I hate that blessed metal......... lick wounds


My option strategies will make it ALL right Kuston?

PATHS - may the fleas of ONE THOUSAND camels infest your nether region............having such words with TOL#1 is not a good way to 'make friends and influence peopleos'.......uh uh. one more thing.......

uh huh!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:00 - ID#335190)
Whoring & Transparency @ The SECRETS of The FEDERAL RESERVE (the powers that be)
This book reveals hard won research that peels back the layers of secrecy protecting those that benefit from controlling our public money with a privately held corporation.

World War One - page 82

" It is now apparent that there might have been no World War without the Federal Reserve Sustem. A strange sequence of events, none of which were accidental, had occurred. Without Theodore Roosevelt's ( republican ) "Bull Moose" candidacy, the popular President Taft ( republican ) would have been reelected, and Woodrow Wilson ( democrat ) would have returned to obscurity. If Wilson had not been elected, we might have had no Federal Reserve Act, and World War One could have been avoided. The European nations had been led to maintain large standing armies as the policy of the Central Banks which dictated their governmental decisions.

On October 13 1917, Woodrow Wilson made a major address, stating:

"It is manifestly imperative that there should be complete mobilization of the banking reserves of the United States. The burden and the privilege ( of the Allied loans ) must be shared by every banking institution in the country. I believe that cooperation on the part of the banks is a PATRIOTIC DUTY at this time, and that membership in the Federal Reserve System is a distinct and significant evidence of PATRIOTISM"

Paul Warburg's ( vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board ) brother, Max, who, as head of the German Secret Service, authorized LENIN'S train to pass through the lines and execute the BOLSHEVIK REVOLUTION in Russia.

When the Communist Revolution seemed in doubt, Wilson sent his personal emissary, Elihu Root, to Russia with one hundred million dollars from his Special Emergency War Fund to save the toppling Bolshevik regime.

In his book Czarism and the Revolution, Gen. Arsene de Goulevitch writes,
" Mr. Bakmetiev, the late Russian Imperial Ambassador to the United States tells us that the Bolsheviks, after victory, transferred 600 million roubles in GOLD between the years 1918-1922 to Kuhn, Loeb Company."

On December 12 1918, the United States Naval Secret Service Report on Mr. Warburg was as follows"
" WARBURG, PAUL: New York City. German, naturalized citizen, 1911, was decorated by the Kaiser in 1912, was vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, handled large sums furnished by Germany for LENIN AND TROTSKY. Has a brother who is leader of the espionage system of Germany."

Strangely enough, this report, which must have been compiled much earlier, while we were at war with Germany, is not dated until December 12 1918. AFTER the Armistice had been signed. Also, it does not contain the information that Paul Warburg resigned from the Federal Reserve Board in May 1918, which indicates that it was compiled before May. 1918, when Paul Warburg would theoretically have been open to a charge of treason because of his brother's control of Germany's Secret Service.

FWIW....Mushrooms-R-Us....Take Care

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:00 - ID#286249)
JTF--IMF in 'time-chains'...well said! {:-))
I found the site bolstering as it demonstrates the shared Humor of the Species, a comforting thought in these difficult days... Did you note the untitled winner that could aptly be captioned, "Me and my shadow"? {:- )

Gold Fevor
(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:08 - ID#432137)
RANGY, OK. Hope this helps.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:10 - ID#286230)
Gold Fevor: Where is the Randgold report?

PH in LA
(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:11 - ID#225408)
September 22
Gollum and Aragorn III:

Today is September 22.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:13 - ID#187109)
yeah......Sept 22....
Where is the blooped on such an HISTORIC day?!?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:17 - ID#147201)
panda et al re Public attraction to gold
There was a squib on local TV today about the Reed Gold Mine. In the early 1800's a young lad found a 17 pound nugget in Meadow Cr. This eventually started a rush that ended as the Reed Gold Mine, an underground effort ) . Today, the Reed is a state sponsored tourist attraction. The squib said the second most popular attraction in N.C. was the Reed Gold Mine. I have supplied this outfit with gold so the tourist have something to pan. Go figure. BTW panda, I think your idea of a poll is worth pushing. Charlie

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:22 - ID#289350)
goldfevor: If you would please give us the url to the randgold

Gold Fevor
(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:32 - ID#432137)
Did you find the report?

Gold Fevor
(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:33 - ID#432137)
Did you find the report?

Aragorn III
(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:40 - ID#212323)
PH in LA (12:11) "Gollum and Aragorn III: Today is September 22."
Indeed! And the fact is, it has been for over 28 hours now, to continue in places for nearly 20 more. The good cheer of the day is site-dependent, but mine is a global view for this occasion. It is significant to witness that the dawn of a new age can be ( was ) inexorably brought about by a *simple* journey "there and back again". For that reason, let us always remember to take the first step.

These 48 glass is raised to honor those who made it happen.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:40 - ID#35571)
DWO -77
Beware the mid day drop!!!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 12:42 - ID#35571)
What is DWO? I must have meant DOW. Let's see what the metals do now.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:04 - ID#335190)
$3.8 BILLION spent on long-term U.S. treasury bonds @ IMF & Russia (@ Control Central
"Kommersant-Daily" on 19 September reported that one of the
Central Bank's more powerful departments, OPERU-2, has been
abolished, giving the Moscow department of the Central Bank
new authority and expanded influence. In an interview with the
daily, the former chief of OPERU-2, Denis Kiselev, said that the
Central Bank's Moscow department will now oversee the daily
operations of banks in its region, deciding their fate and that of
their clients. He also said that the largest banks of the country will
find themselves under the influence of the Moscow mayor's office.
"Moskovskii komsomolets" reported that despite banks' claim to
lack funds to pay to their depositors, MOST-Bank recently
opened a new "expensive" branch in Ulyanovsk. JAC

According to the "IEWS Russian Regional Report" of 17
September, Yekaterinburg, in Sverdlovsk Oblast, has witnessed a
dramatic decline in the number of newspapers available, as
publishers have chosen to reduce their print runs rather than raise
prices in response to climbing costs. Major national newspapers,
such as "Izvestiya" and "Rossiiskaya gazeta," and local papers
such as "Oblastnaya gazeta" and "Uralskii rabochii" are impossible
to find or are being printed less frequently. Pro-communist
newspapers, such as "Iskra uralskaya" are reportedly doing better
and can be found in many locations free of charge. JAC

"Parlamentskaya gazeta" on 22 September reported that
Prosecutor-General Yurii Skuratov announced he has already
unearthed some information about the Central Bank's misuse of
IMF funds. Earlier, former Central Bank chairman Sergei Dubinin
said that nothing untoward has been done with the fund's monies.
He told Ekho Moskvy that the first $4.8 billion tranche of the IMF
stabilization loan has been used to replenish the bank's foreign
exchange reserves. "Parlamentskaya gazeta" quoted Central Bank
Joint Economic department director Nadezhda Ivanova as telling
the State Duma that $1 billion of the IMF funds were transferred
to the Finance Ministry and the remaining $3.8 billion spent on
long-term U.S. treasury bonds." JAC

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:24 - ID#147201)
6pak your 12:00
Thank you very much for this post. I lost my copy of the Secrets years ago. Have not been able to find one since. Again, thanx for the source, Charlie

Gold Fevor
(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:25 - ID#432137)
Kitco off line?
Posts and refresh all down.
What happened?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:26 - ID#222231)
Why does the IMF, FED, WB and other banking interests believe that it is neccessary to bail out nations? Is it for our own and the worlds benefit?


1 ) If a nation is about to default on a loan, why do these institutions require tax payers money to bail out banks that made bad loans?

2 ) What purpose do these bailout actions serve?

3 ) Who is benefiting from these bailouts?

4 ) Surely not the nations that have more debt piled upon more debt. All one has to do is observe the damage done to ALL NATIONS that were supposedly saved by IMF bailouts.

5 ) Why should the taxpayer pay through the nose for banks to be relieved from their responsibility of not practising sound lending policies?

The simple solution is to put a halt to these banks lending indiscriminently by making them share the consequences of default. Once this is done, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be a drastic reduction in defaults.

I know someone out there in cyberland will say this is too simplistic and will rationalize the existence of the IMF.

Better and less damaging that a system is purged sooner than later.

If this is not a "CONSPIRACY" to collect usury at tax payers expense and rape nations under duress, while at the same time protecting certain banking interests, then pray tell me, WHAT IS IT?

Best regards,


(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:33 - ID#153110)
"Strict immigration policies. It is quite likely. However we have some severe structural imbalances". Oh, them severe structural imbalances is the nemesis of the planned human resources equilibrium, ain't they now ?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:41 - ID#147201)
Pete re Bailouts
Think about who made the loans. I suspect that the bailouts come back to US Banks to help their bottom line.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:41 - ID#317193)
I believe it is not about any conspiracy but, rather, about debt default. All currencies are now based on debt, not assets. If you have huge debt defaults the result is a contraction of money but, more importantly, losses in the banks which are all tied together by the derivatives market.

If your counterparty in a derivative defaults so will you and so will all other financial institutions along the line as a counterparty. Think about that for a while. Russia was important because of a default...on the debt. Perhaps not enough to make a counterparty default but a few more and poof...

It is akin to a house of cards. Well, those are my thoughts they right or wrong. : )


EZ Believer
(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:44 - ID#173262)
Gold Fevor...Yea, read with interest considering I have been loading up!

However, the article isn't a concern. It didn't mention $.55 per share
in DROOY stock holdings, or a $10,000,000 payment for it's diamond
consessions, or it's $20,000,000 worth of RR shares, or it's 70,000 plus
square KM of diversified mineral rights, or it's harmony options...etc....
A de-listing on the JSE is laughable considering it trades on NASDAQ.

These days finding articles declaring the death of junior mining companies doesn't take too much research. Will the last mainstream journalist ( non-newsletter ) to submit a positive a article please turn out the lights!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:45 - ID#30126)
Now, how do we enlist the aid of the nefarious WJC? It seems to me that he is the most effective spin ( liar ) master there is. Just think of it, as people lose money he tells them that it's for the children, or some such nonsense. They respond by buying more gold because of the 'children'. At some point the gold market would have to rally. The problem comes in where we have look at who owns the gold. As the saying goes, you can never do just ONE thing... :- ) )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:47 - ID#273227)
EB - Ya, that option strategy. It's been so long I almost forgot about it. Time to add more to the pool. I haven't mentioned this here before, but Buffet has said that he loves it when a stock goes down after he buys it. It allows him to buy more. Last year he took delievery in Feb? Bought in early Aug. Maybe history will repeat? It was a 18X for me last year.

Candlesticks: "Japanese Candlestick Technical Analysis" and "Beyond Candlesticks" by Nison.

Rangy news - Is this good or bad for the stock?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:54 - ID#147201)
SDRer your 9/21 @ 23:55
Does anybody really believe that the EU rules, especially these, can be practically applied in less than 20 years?? This kind of junk is why I think the EU will fold like a sad blivit.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:54 - ID#433172)
Oddly enough it's an open conspiricy. Very intelligent since a secret would be quickly uncovered. It also leans on our bennevolent idealizm ( like a lot of other faulted programs ) . But whats to do? My senators ( Alaska ) , one of which I know slightly, are basicaly corrupt ( not Stevens, he's just dumb ) . My hands aren't tied but my opinon matters not at all. Does yours?
Goldfever-Is that you? supply and demand....

Better leave Clinton alone...find drugs in the oval office and his popularity ratings will exceed the Popes in Cuba.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:57 - ID#335190)

Business, taking care of business...YES-YES-YES

Mushrooms-R-Us ( feed us horse shit, and, keep us in the dark... yes-yes-yes )

FWIW..From my view..Take care

(Tue Sep 22 1998 13:59 - ID#246224)
Looking at the NUmbers (LGB)
Assuming ( for the sake of arguement ) a fairly high net inflow rate of US$20 billion per month from the aforementioned sources ( 401k, IRA, 403b, etc ) how does this relate to the overall level of prices and share exchange? In other words, we must ask "Is this a significant force in the market?".

The US equities market capitalization stands at about US$7 TRILLION or there abouts ( as I recall ) . A US$20 billion per month net inflow into MFs is about US$1 billion per trading day. ( $1 Billion touching a $7 Trillion pile. ) Someone is buying ( aforementioned 'investors' ) and someone is selling. The NYSE index stands at about 500 today. As an index the US$1 billion will buy approximately 2 million index shares ( one each for each issue on the NYSE index ) . Or it might buy approximately 125,000 DOW index shares ( @8,000 ) one each unit for each of the apportioned DOW issues.

To my humble thinking, asnd coreckt mi iph I'n roung hear, that's not very much market clought.

The NYSE exchanges 400 to 750 MILLION shares per day. That's alot of buying and selling. Is a billion dollars a day of pure buying going to propel this market? Will it support this market? Will it prevail against 'outragious fortunes', that is to say a concerted effort to sell this market?

"I don't thiiink sooooo...."

There is a mass of money out there that is supporting and playing with the US equities markets which makes Mutual Fund money look like the piddling trickle of nickles and dimes that it truly is. The mass media has been perfect in their 'education' of the mom&pop, boy&girl-next-door crowd ( of which I am a part, or was ) . We have actually BELIEVEd what they said about the 'MIGHTY MUTUAL FUND FORCES of Middle America'. Bull.

LGB, its not that I'm knocking your numbers, I just can't make them work.

Can somebody help me understand what is going on here?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:12 - ID#222231)
TYoung, chas, george, 6pak
TYoung, I knew there was a reason for idiocy.

chas, you got it right.

george, we are prisoners of our own making.

6pak, I like your spelling of CONNSPIRACY better than my CONPIRACY.

Get Gold soon


(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:12 - ID#433172)
I don't understand derivitives,oh vaguely, but I'm working on it. Anyway you may have identified the underlying reality, still it's like the tail wagging the dog again. Reminds me of addiction of some kind, sooner or later it's necessary to stop, toher wise it's always got you by the ass.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:20 - ID#286249)
Chas, yr 13:54 and blvits (like that {:-))

Hey Charlie! It's what they DO! Just amble on down Expediency Road to where it intersects with Means Justify the Ends Blvd., and you'll be at the small avenue named "Just Feel Good" that leads directly to the Palace of the Pricer's front door. Psstdon't mention that you're a Valuer

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:32 - ID#147201)
panda your 13:45
I would stay as far away from WJC as possible. There is a fundamental appreciation in the minds of the "public" for gold. The only thing holding up their participation in the gold is a price per piece too high for their threshold of buying. As with flour or any other item, the lower the unit, the lower the price that they think about. $20 is a retail breaking point. If the public had access to a piece of recognizable gold at $20 or less, they would BUY. I have done considerable research re public attitudes and I have come up with a piece of gold they will uy. A 10 grain coin, 99995 fine. Joe sixpak does not give a damn about international finance and the stock market. He looks out for his family and is somewhat concerned about survival and Y2K. This market is ripe for a small coin that can take care of his concerns and is one that he can afford to buy. Do some DD on these sites and consider what portion of thge buying public is in the category that this appeals to. My estimate is that portion is about 80%+. Just like the military, there are a bunch more NCO's than there are generals. Retail portions have to fit well into the pockets of Joe sixpak.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:39 - ID#269409)
@ Allen
It's true that the billions pouring in monthly are but one factor in overall market capitalization, and a fairly small one at that. But the broader issue is not the amount of monthly inflow, but the overall net "long" balance of these 401K / IRA plans...which the vast majority of investors intend to keep in play for decades. These accounts represent a rather substantial percentage of the overall market. These vast majority investors have already made it clear that they intend to ride out corrections, and bearish downturns.

Those net total account balances are the numbers that count. Combine them with institutional monies, which historically have always been heavily in equities. Combine these factors with the only strong economic force left worldwide, and the subsequent atrractiveness of this market compared to otehr global markets.. ( save perhaps Europe ) ...

and combine all this with current base economic numbers, showing our economy extremely strong overall...the best sustained economic numbers in decades in fact.....

It all does NOT add up to a Puetzkian crash. Far from it. A flat market for awhile...maybe...because of conditions elsewhere in the world that will slam our corprate profitability / earnings. A crash? no way!!

Downside risk.... 6500 worst case.... upside potential 98/99.... 9400.

Most investors of all stripes will take the long view.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:43 - ID#433143)
Historic? whats so historic? did they bust clinton in possesion of cocaine?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:45 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz...Crash update
Puetz...Your crash for DOW and S&P, and the "blood in the street", Panic, hyper margin call selling, total meltdown....continues right on track, as you predicted. Only 4000 point drop more to go by last week...uh I mean next week.

Tuesday September 22, 2:00 pm Eastern Time

Choppy Dow sheds losses, broader market firmer

NEW YORK, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrials pared their losses in choppy, Tuesday afternoon
trade as the broader market moved into positive terrain.

``I think yesterday set the tone, and today we are backing and filling, but advance and decline numbers
have been positive all day,'' said Frank Gretz, a market analyst at Shields & Co.

``Ignoring bad news yesterday, and with most stocks acting well today, these are positive signs that there is real improvement here,'' Gretz

At 1346 EDT/1736 GMT, the Dow was off 19 points at 7913. NYSE curbs were lifted at 1336 EDT/1736 GMT.

The broad market S&P500 stock index was up five points at
The Nasdaq was up 17 points, or 1 percent, at 1698.
The long bond, whose yield fell to record lows Monday,

retreated as money, which had sought a safe-haven in treasuries early Monday, flowed back into stocks. The 30-year Treasury bond was off
20/32 to yield 5.16 percent.

Small caps were also perky, with the Russell 2000 index up five points, or 1.44 percent, at 367.86.

On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing issues led decliners by nearly two-to-one.

Analysts said stocks were looking for direction amid uncertainty of third quarter profit warnings, and the wait for Fed chief Alan
Greenspan's testimony to Congress Wednesday for hints about any possible rate cuts.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:50 - ID#289357)
It is a frequent occurance these days to see a 1% swing in the major averages, or about $70 Billion up or down in overall market valuation IN ONE DAY.

In this context, $20 Billion PER MONTH shouldn't have much of an impact. Sort of like filling the ocean through a garden hose and looking for the effects on the waves. The only time it should show much of an effect is in an uptrending market, especially in times of low volatility.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:54 - ID#35757)
If I may put my two cents in. I think we can forget about the fundamentals. When someone is buying stock at 100 times dividends, they are obviously buying for only one reason  they expect its price to go up, and relatively quickly. Instead of analyzing Eliot waves, we should be applying the findings of Psychology. When I was in college, I had a girlfriend who was a Psych major. She spent a lot of time with rats, bars and food pellets. Her study consisted of initially rewarding the rats pressing the bar with food pellets ( the reinforcement phase ) , then eliminating the reward and noting the time it took for the rat to stop pressing the bar ( extinction phase ) . The parameters to be varied in the experiment were how many times the rat had to press the bar before getting a pellet, how long the reinforcement phase was allowed to proceed before starting the extinction phase and whether the extinction phase involved total denial of the rewards, or whether the rewards were gradually decreased. Parameters were varied and statistics collected. I dont who funded this research, but living as I do in Las Vegas, I see the results in action every day.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:54 - ID#222231)
chas, what a great idea.
Let's form a mint and invite all Kitcoites to participate. Between us we could probably start with a horde of say, 500 ozs, nah, 300 ozs. ( Most of us are either broke or tapped out by now )

The spot , knowing my luck, will probably fall to $180/oz by the time we get rolling. WOW, we'll make a killing?

So, what else is new?

LET'S RUMBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:55 - ID#269409)
G7 Brazil Bailout possible a la Mexico in 95
Tuesday September 22, 2:24 pm Eastern Time

Speculation swirls about G7 emergency fund plan

By Henry Engler

LONDON, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - Speculation was mounting in financial markets on Tuesday that world
powers were preparing a mutli-billion dollar rescue fund for emerging market nations.

People familiar with the work of the U.S. Treasury and international agencies such as the International
Monetary Fund told Reuters a new initiative could be imminent. Crisis-torn Brazil is seen as the key beneficiary of any rescue.

An international monetary source in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the IMF and Brazil were ``examining options on
the policy front,'' but added there had been no request for money.

Britain, which holds the presidency of the Group of Seven industrialised nations, said it was unaware of any plan to create an emergency

Bank of England governor Eddie George is currently in Latin America, site of some of the most intense market carnage.

In London, visiting top U.S. central banker William McDonough declined to comment.

The talk, which has been running for days but has now gained credence in financial circles, is that anywhere between $50 billion and $120
billion could be pooled together to provide funds for ravaged economies such as Brazil.

``There does seem to be a rescue for Brazil brewing,'' said one senior banking official.

The IMF is strapped for cash, and few think it has a good chance of getting new funds from shareholder governments quickly. Sources said
any resuce package would be a multi-pronged effort, including funding from G7 coffers and potentially other multilateral agencies.

The Group of Seven comrpises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States. Agencies such as the Inter-American
Development Bank, the World Bank and others have also been mentioned as potential sources of money.

``With the combination of a little from the IMF, something significant from the IADB, and something from G7, you could put together a $50
billion package that would be available to Brazil,'' the senior banker said.

The remaining $50 to $70 billion would be used for other emerging economies in crisis.

The primary purpose of the plan would be to halt the recent tide of capital outflows from Brazil and prevent the crisis in the developing
world from engulfing Latin America.

The region is seen as critical to the U.S. economy's health, and thus to world growth.

``I think they have to come up with something and this plan might buy them some time,'' said another banking source.

Financial markets were rife with alternative versions of the same plan, with one option envisaging Brazil and others gaining access to G7
central bank credit, or currency swap lines.

A specialist information service called I.D.E.A. published a report quoting ``sources in various policy circles'' as suggesting there was a
growing willingness in G7 countries to put together a package to put a floor under global risk.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 14:56 - ID#289357)
Rolly @ more candlesticks

I found another candlestick site for you - this is a good one.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:06 - ID#231337)
The US $$ Ship of state.... moving towards the ROCKS !!
This is the transcript of the ACTUAL radio conversation of a US naval ship with Canadian authorities off the coast of Newfoundland.

Canadians: Please divert your course 15 degrees the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: Recommend you divert your course 15 degrees the North to avoid a collision.

Canadians: Negative. You will have to divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert YOUR course.

Canadians: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course.


Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:10 - ID#269409)
@ Allen....Volume in trade vs. risk
A further point I would respectfully make. Tradded volume and even volatility is not necessarily indicative of any potential downside risk. Most of the trading that takes place on high volume days is done by day traders, computer trading programs, and institutional investors. These folks sell shares out of one hand and buy em in the other.

The fact that the U.S. Treasury is selling double the volume of Gold coins this year, or that metals have seen higher play in 98 than in 97, does not mean that the Gold in Ft, Knox is suddenly going to be sold by the U.S. Govt., thus crashing the market.

Nor are most "little guy" Gold investors going to dump their holdings at every little ( or BIG! ) downturn in the Gold market. Only when a market shows virtually continuous LONG TERM value loss ( as Gold has for 2 decades ) ....does a market start dwindling into smaller and smaller shares of the overall investment pool until cycles reverse.

We have a LONG way to go before we'll see a repeat of the "flat" or declining decades we've seen in the DOW in the 30's, 50's, and 70's. And none of the economic conditions that applied then apply now.

Combine this with current economic numbers in the U.S.,,,and the mighty 401K / IRA investor becomes a formidable force for downside sentiment and downside floor, volatility from other quarters notwithstanding.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:11 - ID#252127)
Allen(USA)....good points

What percent of buying would it take to move a 7
trillion dollar market up X number of dollars?
One percent of $7 trillion is $70 billion, a big sum, or 3.5 times greater than the subject monthly inflow from 401k's and other US captive plans through the Mutual Funds.

Perhaps market support is instigated by combinations of foreign and plan monies using some portion of the monthly $20 billion, maybe foreign plus plan moneies of $7 to $15 billion on dips?

Stock derivatives also could play a hand.

This may be occuring while the insiders slip out into the safe havens.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:11 - ID#246224)
So what you are saying is that there is a vast amount of shares which are frozen like the polar ice caps. These shares are basicly out of play and completely irrelevant to the market's current pricing movements? This adds to my confusion.

If shares are withdrawn from circulation ( exchange ) then it would seem to me that they play little part in determining the valuation of the markets. Conversely, those shares which remain actively traded have a disproportionate effect on the total body of outstanding shares. Only those shares which are traded determine the valuation of all outstanding shares. The ones in boxes in the attics of mutual funds are essential passive and really do not 'count' in the sense of how the markets price things.

One could even argue that the froozen mutual fund stock shares represent an OVERHANG of sorts like the gold in CB vaults. Wouldn't this tend to depress the market in the long run as it represents an oversupply?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:26 - ID#35571)
That reminds me of the bean plant. If you plant a climbing bean plant near a pole, it will grow toward the pole and start growing up it.

This guy got to wondering how the plant knew where the pole was at. He would move the pole and the plant would grow toward the pole. He could move the pole as much as fifteen feet from the plant and it would still grow toward it. It didn't seem to matter if the shadow of the pole fell across the plant or not. I don't know if he ever discovered how the plant did this or not, but the interesting thing was that after a while the plant would grow frustrated and give up.

If you moved the pole a couple of dozen times or so without allowing the plant to reach it, the plant would eventually refuse to grow toward the pole no matter how close you put it.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:26 - ID#335190)
September 22, 1998

Clinton: Obuchi options limited

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- In recent weeks both Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky have delivered urgent messages from the U.S. administration that Japan, mired in its worst recession in 50 years, must be more aggressive in dealing with its own economic problems to help lift its troubled Asian neighbours out of their own steep recessions.

September 22, 1998

U.S. import surge prompts complaints by shippers

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A surge in cargo from Asia destined for the United States has prompted complaints from shippers about a shortage of ocean cargo space and unfair rate increases, the Federal Maritime Commission said Tuesday.

"The primary causes of this situation are said to be weak Asian economies, a strong U.S. dollar and the holiday cargo surge," the commission said in its order. "Exacerbating this inbound surplus of cargo is a significant decline in westbound shipments, causing an imbalance in cargo and in the need for carrier equipment."

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:38 - ID#269409)
@ Allen.... Polar Ice is coooooold!
Your last post was mixing apples and oranges.

Yes, I agree the typical 401K retirement plan investor, locks away his dollars LONG.... in a Polar ice cap if you like...for decades.

However, far from taking these dollars out of trade play, or locking them up in off the market shares, they are of COURSE actively traded in millions of shares daily.

Not by the individual investor himself, but the fund manager where he is putting his dollars. The vast majority of long term retirement account investors put their dollars into mutual funds, not individual shares. these funds trade the maasive volumes.

Fidelity Magellan managers for instance...and all the other thousands of fund managers....are the ones making the ( close to ) billion share trading days happen. Using the "little guy's" investment dollars. Plus of course the dollars of the big institutional players like Insurance Co's and Banks. Always looking to dump the weak shares and buy the undervalued strong ones......that's what makes our stock market trade is it not?

Aren't the proliferation of mutual funds, computer trading schemes, et al the past 2 decades the very REASON we have such actively traded exchanges now, compared to historical norms? Roughly half these dollars are the "Locked in polar ice" investment dollars to which you refer.

As to an "overhang" of shares being similar to the overhang of Gold in CB vaults. Not analagous at all. The typical investor is looking at staying in the market for decades. That's his strategy. He's not going to suddenly dump this "overhang" because it's no longer a "working asset".

Governments with CB Gold hoards on the other hand.......we know what their thinking has been the past few years, don't we?

lefty kiwi
(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:45 - ID#32176)
re possible gold bottom
26 days to 18th October 1998 which is F25 from $103.50 gold bottom on Carolan Spiral Calendar ... Also see Jeills Chart .

lefty kiwi
(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:47 - ID#32176)
re possible gold bottom
26 days to 18th October 1998 which is F25 from $103.50 gold bottom on Carolan Spiral Calendar ... Also see Jeills Chart .

(Tue Sep 22 1998 15:51 - ID#34883)
Markets, Not Governments
Date: 9/21/98

The '94 Mexico bailout helped spread the financial flu in Asia. This spread
to Russia and South America. Now, Mexico may get hit again. Governments and
global lenders have tried all sorts of fixes. But they haven't worked. Only
a free market can.

It's a wonderful myth: Capitalism run amok caused the Great Depression, and
then government stepped in and fixed everything with ''reasonable''
regulations. A nice story, taught in classrooms across the country for
decades. But it's false.

Government planning and manipulation of the money supply caused and
prolonged the Depression. Capitalism had nothing to do with it.

It's the arrogance of government bureaucrats and economic planners who think
they can ''plan'' and ''control'' markets. It doesn't work. It didn't work
for Roosevelt and it won't work for the global FDRs of today.

The problems in Asia, Russia and South America should surprise no one. The
Mexico bailout opened the floodgates. Every money manager with half a deck
dumped billions into Asia and Russia. After all, if things went sour, the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank would bail them out.

This ''moral hazard'' problem has shifted the risk to taxpayers.

Central and private banks also took the bait. They lent money like drunken
sailors. Businesses ''invested'' in all sorts of things - things many people
didn't want. This is called malinvestment. Then the bills came due.

Hence, the bailouts: $50 billion for Mexico; South Korea, $57 billion;
Indonesia, $43 billion; Thailand, $18 billion; and Russia, $119 billion.

The cronyism and quasi-socialist economies in Asia and South America didn't
help matters. And the kleptocracy that is Russia today, well . . . the mafia
runs just about everything. And if the mob's not involved, corrupt officials
are: the personnel flotsam of a centralized state.

Japan's in dutch because it lent too much to its spend-happy neighbors. It
also loaned too much to its spend-happy old boy network, the keiretsu.
Economic planners there keep trying to ''stimulate'' the economy. It's not
working well.

While each of the floundering economies have different problems, the source
of all their problems is simple: government interference.

There's more to this story, of course. But as government planners ponder the
financial horizon, they should think long and hard and do nothing.

Let those people who made reckless loans take the hits. Don't bail out
central and private bankers. If they can't manage money, they don't merit
the job in the first place.

Cut taxes, tariffs, and regulations -across the board. This will free up
capital and allow sober lenders to make prudent investments.

Leave things alone, and the market will fix itself.

Consider: Prior to the Depression, there were about nine business cycles in
the U.S. Each downturn fixed itself within a year or two. Why? Because the
government didn't interfere.

But in '24, the Fed expanded credit, which caused a boom. In early '29, the
Fed sold bonds to tighten credit. And in October '29, the market crashed.

Then instead of letting the market fix itself as in the past, the government
stepped in with distorting programs.

Smoot-Hawley tariffs killed imports, which killed exports, which led to bank
failures and panic.

Public works projects, industry subsidies and deficit spending.

New taxes.

Gold seized and dollar devalued.

Farm subsidies.

Wagner Act and the minimum wage raised labor costs, fueled unemployment and
prolonged the Depression.

There were 9 million unemployed in '41, the same as in '31. Roosevelt's New
Deal solved nothing.

The economic problems of today will work themselves out. And yes, they will
be painful for people who lose their jobs through downsizing and

But governments that step in will only prolong the pain, as they've done in
Japan, Russia and the rest.

The market is inexorably logical and ultimately beneficial, if allowed to
work. Let it work.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------- ( C ) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:06 - ID#289357)
lefty kiwi @ final gold low on 10/18

That's certainly a possibility....the next big spike on the daily Fibonacci time chart for the XAU is on 10/19.

Of course, this doesn't fit well with the Elliott Wave follower's thoughts that we are now in wave b of an a-b-c correction which will soon go thru $300 gold - it fits better with a wave extention from the previous low going to a new low.

I give this scenario about a 50-50 chance of being correct, however, and am keeping my options open.

Aragorn III
(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:17 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA)--your 15:11
Sometimes, when sailing uncharted waters on a voyage of discovery, one may find that their ship has run aground and become smashed upon the rocky shores of truth. It is there that one may contentedly remain, even while a storm may rage about.

Welcome to solid ground. Stay for a while.

lefty kiwi
(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:25 - ID#32176)
silverbaron..... there is compelling evidence 18/10 is a gold foci point .....
In my experience of Carolan Foci points even if they dont make a new high or low they act as a brake ( or support in a bull market ) on the market that doesn,t release until after that date .
There is very compelling evidence that this is a foci point.
I have seen foci points that signal a bottom or top F1 ( 29 days ) after the date also .
What i am trying to convey is to get ready to load up on gold futures if gold declines into this date .

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:26 - ID#288186)
COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS (nice drop in Silver totals!)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 22

Gold 924,724 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 75,949,208 - 1,262,054 troy ounces
Copper 61,584 + 2,243 short tons
See Ya! Fox-man

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:26 - ID#225236)
Nyse Says Sells Seat For $1.18 Million, Down $155,000 From Previous Sale
Just look at that damned Reuters, and their co-conspirators Yahoo, spreading these, these ALERTS!!! They obviously must know of these ancient superstitions that say that decline in exchange seat prices is ALWAYS the first sign of a crash. So when they report a 13% decline in the NYSE seat price, they may just be causing stress and anxiety among LGB and his followers! SUE THEM!!! SUE THEM!!!


(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:36 - ID#43349)
Just as you can not tell how fast a car is going by how much gas is in the tank ( unless there is zero--and has been for a while ) , so you cannot determine what price a stock is traded at by knowing how many shres there are outstanding. The gas in the tank has no effect untill it gets into the cylinders.

So with freely traded things like stocks and commodities. Unless one is up against a supply/demand wall, prices are pretty much determined by emotions, opinions, speculations and manipulations.

And so it goes...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:37 - ID#246224)
I do not understand things as they are. That is one of my problems. There are plenty of people such as yourself who have prospered along with this era of '..' what, I don't know. Hope you use it well. I am finding that I just don't 'get it'. Probably never will. Always end up mixing apples and oranges, etc. Just a fruit salad kinda guy I guess.

Do you think we will be OK for the forseeable future?

As for me, I will try to keep a lower profile, haul rocks, mend fences, tend some sheep. Maybe things will work out fine after all. No big changes. Just the usual turbulence. I have less and less confidence in my perspective every day. A particularly difficult experience.

Good day to all! Have a happy tomorrow as well.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:39 - ID#350179)
Close (approximate)
DOW 7933.25 7897.20 -0.45% -36.05
XAU *64.52 64.98 0.71% 0.46
*NOTE XAU is measured from prior close.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:39 - ID#413307)
@ FOX-MAN: Thank you for keeping us posted on COMEX metal
stocks. I did not mind seeing silver get pounded down 10 cents
yesterday. Silver under $5 is going to disappear very quickly
from COMEX shelves, The world is down to a mere 69 days supply now.
At 1.2 million 0z per day, available stocks would last only 29 business
days. We are going to pass a threshold some day soon, and there will
commence a mad scramble to buy that last 10-20 million oz. The
scramble should show up first in the one month lease rates, not just
in a spike in spot POS.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:47 - ID#290172)
an interesting read...
Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes
Sep/Oct 1998 Foreign Affairs

"The assumption behind the International Monetary Fund's recent bailout of Russia is that the country is gradually reforming its economy according to market principles. But Russia's economy is much smaller than official figures suggest. Workers, the government, and industry all accept the myth that the manufacturing sector produces value, when in fact what it makes is worth less than the labor and resources it consumes. The result is a mountain of wage and pension arrears and government debt that will continue to provoke crises. The day of reckoning will be much worse if the West does not pull the plug soon.

The new system can be called Russia's virtual economy because it is based on an illusion about almost every important parameter: prices, sales, wages, taxes, and budgets. At its heart is the pretense that the economy is much larger than it really is. This pretense allows for a larger government and larger expenditures than Russia can afford. It is the real cause behind the web of wage, supply, and tax arrears from which Russia cannot seem to extricate itself. The virtual economy is robust, deep-rooted, and broadly popular."

Sept 22, 1998 "Imported toilet paper is more expensive than caviar now."
Moscow store manager Lena Kapitanova, describing the impact on Russian consumers of the rouble's recent collapse. [from Inside China ]

Y2K preparers may wish to keep this in mind. Paper as a currency!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:47 - ID#343171)
where is the panic?
I read on the thread several weeks back that we were to have
big panic mid-September.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 16:51 - ID#343449)
@...CRUDE.dec.'99...25.strikes.are.$70.00 EACH!!!!!!!!!!!!!..............ALLABOARD!!!!!!!!!!!


up in the sky!!! it's a, it's a plane....
no, it's the ssm.........

naw........just that nasty old black gold again....

damn'em! sumanabitches! they're increasing the value of
my calls!!!!!!! haruuuummmpppphhhhhh......


(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:16 - ID#269409)
@ Allan...
Hmmm, methinks you understand world economics better than about 99% of the population or so... so I'm not sure what that last message meant. But in any case, assuming sincerity of your question.... "Do you think we will be OK for the forseeable future?"

I would say yes, for about 20 years or so. After that time, the wealthy U.S. baby boomers will be retiring in numbers larger than new workers will be there to replace them.

When this demographic shift occurs...look out below! These en masse retiree's will indeed THEN be pulling their retirement fund chips off the table faster than they can be replaced. Social security pyramid schemes will be breaking down at the same time. Socio political breakdowns will also likely be ocurring. Consumer spending will be drastically cut back as less "young" big income money is produced in a shrinking economy. Energy resources, particularly oil will finally be drying up and becoming far more scarce and expensive. The economy will have become far more polarized, with the high tech. wealthy in one group, and the semi impoverished service sector in another...with very little domestic manufacturing employment in between.

We will then have a repeat of the great depression complete with massive stock market crash. Till then, the DOW will just keep coming out of each mini Bear by making new and higher highs every year to 2 years, especially after the current emerging market meltdown starts stabilizing.

Naturally, all bets are off if WW3, a comet strike, or the Apocolypse happens in the next 2 decades. But in those events, Gold & Silver will be relatively worthless along with stocks and currency. Food, oil, and water will be the currency of the day if the "worst" happens.


Aragorn III
(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:18 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA) again, this time your 16:37
Chin up! No worries! Read my 16:17 in case you missed it. And if my words seem too cryptic, here it is simply--right on, and well done. Stay the course, my friend.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:18 - ID#290172)
Forewarned is...
Politically Incorrect: This week, Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew marked his 75th birthday with
the launch of the first of his two-volume memoirs, The Singapore Story. He spoke in a wide-ranging interview with REVIEW Editor Nayan Chanda, Politics & Policy Editor Andrew Sherry and Singapore Correspondent Ben Dolven.

Review: The first part of the book where you describe the Japanese occupation was gripping.

Lee: The Japanese left a deep mark on our lives. They are different now--and may they remain so. There's something in their culture which makes me apprehensive ... I am not sure that you will get any Japanese
today to claim that they are a superior race; they know it is the wrong thing to say. But I think they believe they are special. And indeed they are. I would readily concede that a team of 200 workers from China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Vietnam or Singapore--vs 200 Japanese, the Japanese can't be beaten. It's their cohesiveness--they fit each other like a glove-a cultural homogeneity, and a determination to act and succeed as a team. It makes them formidable.

Review: What has gone wrong?

Lee: Because they opened up only certain limited sectors. And the crucial sector they opened up was finance. Once they had the Americans and Europeans in their stockmarkets in Tokyo, covering its trading day by day, they could no longer control it the way they did before. Had they not opened up financially, they could have directed the way the Nikkei index should go . . . They will suffer for a few years, but I believe in the same way they caught up in manufacturing, so they will catch up in banking and finance and retail and wholesale services. There is no magic formula which they can't learn . . . It's a matter of time, of leadership . . . After a while they will come to a certain consensus that this has to be done, and when they are agreed, they will implement it thoroughly.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:19 - ID#147201)
Pete your 14:54
Great perspective. It's not quite ready, but close. How about emailing me.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:19 - ID#269409)
Love those silver investory numbers. Nicest downsize I've seen in awhile. I think the next big Buffet like move is getting exponentially nearer.

Go SSC...go silver..... go Goad ( as they say in the South )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:25 - ID#252391)
Rhody and silver stocks
Keep us posted on the silver lease rates as you can find them. Have to agree at some point a trigger will be hit that will send the shorts scrambling. However, until then I have to be of the opinion that this is but a shell game. The silver is moving to London where it is hidden form public reports of its existance and size.

Any rational person, much less a group as sophisticated as silver shorts, can see that there are only the equivalent of 15,000 futures contracts worth of silver in the COMEX vaults. If there were some 800 pound guerilla out there short the silver market you'd think you'd see a little offset buying.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:26 - ID#254321)
Drug use Probed in White House
All: This is from WorldNetDaily, complements of Pete

This may explain why K Starr has only presented his report on Monica Lewinsky so far, hoping that WJC may step down. It is possible that WJC has already been confronted with a list of criminal activity ( such as drug use in the White House ) , and has refused to step down. WJC probably is betting that his popularity and charisma will protect him from anything his attackers can send his way. Reminds me of the Prince of lies.

It looks like the first KS blow has been parried -- now how about the next? And when? Or has KS run out of steam?

Gary Aldrich's comments are especially enlightening about WJC. 'I don't believe he ( WJC ) will go easily'. 'It's going to be a long, dirty battle that will be destructive to the country in many ways.'

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:31 - ID#350179)
Seems a little slow, so...
Germany enters 'beer recession' as supply outstrips demand

Saudis expel Afghan diplomat, recall their envoy from Kabul

IMF's biggest borrowers typically the most corrupt>

Four U.N. observers hurt while touring breakaway Georgian region

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:33 - ID#350179)
Don't know what's up with the URLs (2nd time today)
I think they'll work if you cut & drop on the address line ( ? )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:34 - ID#290172)
China & Japan...Dramatic Dyad...+ Russia visit...oh oh
Jiang Wants Japan Ties to Be Closer Than U.S.

President Jiang Zemin has called for more substantial relations with Tokyo than Beijing-Washington ties as diplomats from both nations prepared for his landmark visit to Japan. Beijing is pressing Japan to set up a joint mechanism for concerted action to tackle regional economic issues to strengthen the relationship into the next millennium. ( Hong Kong Standard )

Jiang trips likely to be in November
BEIJING: Mainland authorities are still talking with Russia and Japan over new dates for President Jiang Zemin's postponed visits to the two countries, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday.

Chinese diplomatic sources in Moscow told ITAR-TASS news agency that Mr Jiang would pay a visit to Russia, taking in Moscow and Novossibirsk, from 11-13 November.

In Japan, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said China had made it clear that it wanted the visit to take place this year, the 20th anniversary of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations. According to Jiang Yuechun, research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, November is one of the few windows of opportunity for Mr Jiang to make the state visits.

``I would say this would be the most likely time as China wants to mark the 20th anniversary of relations with Japan and Mr Jiang also has to visit Russia at the same time. - AFP

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:37 - ID#350179)
(correction) Lets see if this link works without doubling...
Four U.N. observers hurt while touring breakaway Georgian region

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:38 - ID#317193)
SDRer...paper(toilet) is currency in Russia.....I AM RICH if
I move there with my T/P. : )


(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:40 - ID#254321)
Corollary to Last post
Question to all: Why is Hillary standing behind WJC? She is a very smart perceptive woman, and undoubtedly knows all about WJC's activities. She nearly divorced him before it became apparent that he could become president. But -- if he might resign in disgrace, why would she stick behind him?

The answer is simple -- she needs him to protect her from serious criminal charges of some kind.

It is also possible that resignation is not an option for WJC, because the shady group that launched him into power might then consider him expendable.

If the above scenario is correct, it is truly unfortunate that America and the American people will have to experience the trauma and disillusionment that could occur. Lets get it over with relatively painlessly, whatever happens.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:45 - ID#269128)
Whazzup guys?
celebrate life!....gulping and puffing till morn.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:55 - ID#335190)
"USofA Democrat Governor " WE'RE MAD AS HELL " @ Should he do his research-USofA corporation's EH!
September 22, 1998

Lewinsky scandal may exacerbate Canada-U.S. trade disputes

WASHINGTON ( CP ) -- The scandal-plagued Clinton administration's desperate need to shore up support among Democrats may make it more difficult to resolve trade disputes with Canada.

Janklow has been egged on by several election-bound Democratic congressmen who accuse Canadian farmers of unfairly flooding the U.S. market with cheap wheat.

"If the Canadians conclude we're mad as hell, you bet we are," said Earl Pomeroy, a North Dakota Democrat.

Pomeroy called the campaign "a very clear sign of how disgusted we are with Canadians dumping wheat into our markets."

"Sure, the administration needs the votes of farm-belt Democrats as a bulwark against impeachment. But even if he could, the president doesn't have time to get on the phone to governors and Democratic congressmen to placate them about Canadian wheat."

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:56 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.47. The 233 day moving average is 28.52. We have closed below the 233 day M/A for 16 consecutive trading days.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:58 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .226. The 233 day moving average is .249

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Sep 22 1998 17:59 - ID#295111)
ABX-Barrick Gold-------CLOSED AT $17.9375 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.23
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $07.0000 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $04.8750 0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.05
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $05.3750 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.03
FCX-Freeport Mc-------CLOSED AT $12.0625 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.22
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $13.5000 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.01
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $03.9375 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.03
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $10.7500 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.13
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $19.2500 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.22
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $12.1875 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.10

XAU CLOSED AT 64.98 0.46

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:00 - ID#290172)
TYoung--Me too! Our first big coup!
Today's FT has a story about two brothers ( Scots ) in WA state, who are going public with cotton TP and tissues. Shall we branch out?
[wrong metaphor...moving from paper to cotton, so leaf out??? {:- ) )

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:03 - ID#384350)
The CRB Index????
Does anyone know what happened to the CRB index? I can't seem to get a quote for anytime in September. Dick Hoskins told me that he thought if the CRB closed below 195, he thought that would be catastrophic for the global economy.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:03 - ID#269128)
IMF realities....corruption is OKAY with us.
Tuesday September 22 1:11 PM EDT

Big IMF Borrowers Rank High In Corruption Index

By Janet Guttsman

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Countries that won billions of dollars of international loans are seen as among the most corrupt
nations in the world, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The 1998 Corruption Perceptions Index from corruption watchdog Transparency International gives just one country,
Denmark, a perfect 10, showing that investors, risk analysts and the public think Denmark and its leadership are clean.

But well over half of the 85 countries on the list scored less than 5.5 -- the number which Transparency International views as
pointing to a problem for the government concerned.

``It seems to me that any country that has a score of 6.0 or 5.5 or lower clearly has a huge problem,'' said Frank Vogl, vice
president of the Germany-based institution, which has issued its surveys annually since 1985.

Countries scoring particularly badly in the 1998 list include Indonesia, ranked 80th with a score of 2.0, Russia, ranked 76th
with a score of 2.4 and Pakistan, which shares the 71st spot with Latvia in the Baltics, with a score of 2.7.

In last place was Cameroon in West Africa, with a score of 1.4.

``The 1998 CPI score relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as seen by business people, risk analysts and the
general public,'' Transparency International said. ``It ranges between 10 ( highly clean ) and 0 ( highly corrupt ) .''

Vogl stressed that the index did not actually measure corruption, but concentrated on the perception of corruption, which he
defined as ``the abuse of public office for private gain.''

``We are not measuring corruption, we are measuring the perception of it. We do not have enough data to say these perceptions
are accurate,'' he said.

Russia, the largest country in the world, is also the biggest borrower from the International Monetary Fund, although the fate
of its latest multi-billion dollar lending program is in doubt as the fund assesses the print-and-spend policies of the new
government of Yevgeny Primakov.

The IMF promised Indonesia more than $10 billion last year and has paid out just over half that. The two sides agreed to a new
policy plan this month, clearing the way for a further payment, probably after the IMF's annual meetings next month.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:05 - ID#288186)
LGB, jims; It's been awhile since we saw Comex Silver inventories drop
in a million plus increment. I don't know if these Comex drawdowns
are going to LBMA or not, but it seems to me, the transfer costs
alone would not justify moving these inventories just for the sake
of hiding them to make it appear that Silver availability is slowly
diminishing so as to draw in "long speculators" which would, in turn,
give the "shorts" more power to "short the market" even lower. It just
doesn't make since to me.
I still think fundamentals will return some day soon to the Metals,
especially when there's a flight to quality/safety. Buffett seemed to
think so. Maybe he's accumulating again. Maybe these Comex drawdowns are
going to LBMA, but are registered to him or some affiliate of his. Actually, help me out here! Didn't his original Silver puchases go to
London for storage? If there is alot of Silver at LBMA, can't it be registered and "unavailable" as well? Also, hasn't he been leasing out some of his Silver in the mean time? This has alleviated the pressure and
demand for Silver since the "Buffett purchase" anouncement. Silver will have it's day sometime soon! Gold will too! Go Gold! Go Silver! Fox-man

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:09 - ID#317193) are warped...I like the idea

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:10 - ID#183109)
Gold Fevor @ RANGY...Hoover should stick to selling vacuum cleaners!
GOLD FEVOR, the HOOVER REPORT you speak of is an absolute joke. Whoever wrote this report for Hoover is either an absolute moron who did not bother to do any research on the company, or has some other agenda. Would you consider the list below as irrelevant? May I quote from Hoover  Randgold Resources division ( which is prospecting for gold in Mali ) .

PROSPECTING FOR GOLD IS MALI.WHAT A LAUGH. Randgold holds 20,000 Sq. Km throughout Africa, and has rapidly expanded their resource base to over 10 Million ounces. They have one mine in full production already, with the second already under construction, and #3, #4, and possibly #5 on the way, Id call PROSPECTING IN MALI one of the grossest negative exaggerations Ive ever heard of. In excess of 300,000 ounces of production by mid-1999, and at least another 200,000+ coming on line in 2000, this guy obviously didnt bother to do his/her homework. As goldbugs, does this attitude toward gold companies in general surprise us?I think not.

PLEASE CHECK THE FACTSYou might even consider enlightening HOOVER on the truth.

FACT: 11,252,000 RR shares $27,000,000
FACT: SUF diamond payment $10,000,000
FACT: 7,568,841 DURBAN shares $22,700,000
FACT: $20 Million share issue from RR $20,000,000
Lower Estimate: Transvaal Gold Mining Estates $4,000,000+
Previous negotiations at $14 Million.
Lower Estimate: OTHER ( Harmony options etc. ) $4,000,000+
Harmony Options alone worth nearly $4 Million.
Lower Estimate: Mineral Rights: 70,000 SQ. KM $35,000,000+
"Flack says Randgold plans to sell the southern African mineral rights, other than those at South Wits and the potentially diamondiferous Marsfontein in Northern Province, into a listed company in exchange for shares. He says independent advisers have valued the mineral rights package at $85-million. Negotiations regarding TGME and Randgold's 10% stake in Navachab are also under way."
TOTAL ASSETS: $123,713,723+

TOTAL Debt -$54,000,000 ( mainly long-term bond 2001 )

TOTAL VALUE: $69,507,200+

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:10 - ID#219363)
Quick + Dirty 401-k
Glanced at some of the posts about 401-k and wanted to throw in the perspective of someone who had money in a plan. I know many people here either have money in a 401-k, have had money in one, or already know what they're like, but many people here haven't ever participated. From an employee's stand-point it's really simple. You fill out some papers and start having money deducted from your check before taxes are taken out ( you can do it post-tax, but nobody ever does, there is a limit on the amount you can take out pre-tax ) . Anyway, point is that it all kinda happens magically and goes into some mysterious fund off in the distance somewhere. Your company only handles paper shuffles, the paper they shuffle comes from the "401-k place" *grin*. Almost everyone participates because the company "matches" the amount of money you put in, though that normally means you have to remain an employee for a certain number of years ( which is what they get out of the deal ) , that's all called "employer matching". Anyway, so you're getting your paycheck like normal people, but there's a little missing off the top which gets matched by your employer and sent to "the company", somewhere. Part of the paper junk you signed had "allocations", how you wanted the money to be divided up. These "allocations", well, they suggest some for certain ages, etc, but they end up going into high and low risk investments. Say you choose "world growth" or something like that, it might be risky, but it would normally pay out a pretty good amount because of the risk. All of that money rolls over and buys even more shares, so the investment appears to grow all on it's very own. It's nifty when the market is going up, and I honestly didn't even pay attention to how my allocations where divided up ( as was the case with many people I worked with ) . The only time I even payed attention to the stuff was when "the company" sent me a statement. I'd glance at the performance of each fund, call the company up, and have them shift all the money into whatever had made the most on the statement - it sounds silly and like a stupid thing to do, but it worked very well believe it or not. Most of the people I worked with did the very same thing. Anyway - that's how it all works from a fools perspective. The worry is that when people get their statements this time, there'll be a big MINUS in front of the number, and it's very possible that everyone could call up "the company" and shift all their money into money markets or something. That's what I would have done, and that's what most of the people I worked with would have done too. It's EXTREMELY likely to happen in my opinion, because it's not like buying stock - when you buy stock, there is at least some kind of name recognition or something involved, I mean, you know what Coke is, or Citibank, or IBM - but when you're shifting money around in a 401-k, what the hell is "world growth" ? Who cares, it lost a bunch of money, shift all my money into whatever "stable value" is *grin*. That's the mentality. There isn't "buy the dips", because most people don't even know what the funds holdings are, or care.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:14 - ID#269128)
New toilet paper for US bums....
Tuesday September 22, 3:45 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Treasury Rolls Out New $20 Note Thursday:
First Area Transaction with New Bill at
Reading Terminal

PHILADELPHIA, Sept. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- The Department of the U.S. Treasury
will introduce the new $20 note into circulation Thursday, Sept. 24. To deter counterfeiting, the redesigned note contains
improved security features including a watermark; enhanced security thread; fine line printing patterns; color-shifting ink; and a
larger, off-center portrait.

Much of the public will be seeing the anti-counterfeit features for the first time because the $20 note is the most widely used of
the larger denominations representing $80 billion of the $450 billion in U.S. currency circulating today. Because the $20 is also
commonly distributed through automated teller machines, it is expected to attract more attention than the redesigned $50 and
$100 notes released over the past two years.

Like the new $50 and $100 notes, the redesigned $20 notes will be phased into circulation, replacing older notes, which will be
removed as they wear out. There will be no recall or devaluation of the older-series notes; the United States always honors its
currency at full face value, no matter how old.

On Thursday, Robert J. Bucco, vice president of cash services of The Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will spend one of the first
new $20 notes to enter circulation at the Reading Terminal Market, 12th and Arch streets in Philadelphia. He will be available to
answer any questions about the $20 note. An advisory on the event will be released Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia serves depository institutions in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and
Delaware by supplying cash to these banks and thrifts, supervising them, collecting and processing about 3.5 million checks
daily and wiring money and securities. The Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is part of the Federal Reserve System, which serves
as the nation's central bank whose basic mission is to create the financial conditions that foster economic growth: stable prices,
sound banking practices and a reliable payments systems.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:22 - ID#384350)
MOA - Corruption is in the Eye of the Beholder
In countries like Cameroun or Mexico you may have to cough up bribe money. Fifty Dollars here and there to petty officers, federales and the like.

Now look at a country who is controlled by the international banking mafia in a country like Denmark or the US. Forced exactions of 76% marginal income in Denmark. The US isn't much better whose govt-sanctioned mafia will exact well over 50% of the assets and earnings of individuals, all contrary to the spirit of Constitution, God, man, and Country.

What nation's govt is more corrupt?


Tantalus Rex
(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:22 - ID#295111)
Y2K problems could hit much soooner .... LIKE JAN/1/99
From Reuters

Lee Freeman at Source Recovery, says the millennium bug could bite as early as January 1, 1999, not 2000, because "there are a myriad of dates -- some with bigger trip wires -- than others -- its just that the most apparent trip wire is January 1, 2000......The fixation is that the house of cards is going to come tumbling down January 1, 2000, but that's just not true."

Along these, the same story reports that "some experts say banks and financial exchanges, mainly in Europe, could shut down on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the single European currency because of computer problems. January 1 of '99 is going to be a big one, said Ken Orr, who runs the Ken Orr Institute.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:32 - ID#253246)
Economic Contarian Micheal Norman sees gold @350

Watching sqawk box today and guest Micheakl Norman of the Economic Contrairian Update sees gold at $350 at Euro start.
He is short the US Bonds & the US $ ; sees Euro as strong competition
for the dollar and says that when GDP growth drops below 2.5%
bonds will tank. "US Treasury Bonds will be the junk bonds of the 21st century"

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:34 - ID#317193)
LGB...I hope you are correct...but
I suggest that the value of any asset is not dependent on its price when purchased. If the economy ever goes south and fund flows slow or, heaven forbid, stop, watch out below. Values can go up AND down. Gold is a prime example.

One thought...when has the herd or masses ever come out ahead? Food for thought. This time will be no different.

Take care...pray for silver...I'm with you on that horse.


Tantalus Rex
(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:34 - ID#295111)
Japan on the verge of promoting gold investments for it's citizens!!!!!
A detailed account of the Regulatory Framework is located at the following web location, however, the gold reference is reproduced here:

"One of the directions in developing new financial commodities is to add benefits which include deposits and financial bonds with a foreign exchange option and gold investment accounts."

Yep, that's GOLD INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS! Does anyone have any idea what the POG will soar to if any percentage - however small - of the US$10 TRILLION in Japanese savings begins to chase the yellow metal.
Gold $30,000 here we go.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:36 - ID#269128)
Gianni D.- good point.
Just what is corruption anyway?

It seems eveerybody knows what it is but would be hard-pressed to define it exactly as to be able to judge every situation.

The more you think about it the more it becomes clear that "corruption" as perceived by the general populace is one or more parties not playing by the rules, to their advantage. But then if the rules are deemed to be "corrupt" by an outside power, are you any better off?

As to money and gold it would seem that any practice that dilutes the value of the money in the people's hands is corrupt....on this we will all agree. However if we were to hold gold money is this truly incorruptable?...I can imagine scams to reduce the value of this money, e.g. futures options on gold mining, etc, etc.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:37 - ID#269409)
Ode to a Lying flute harpist
A musician by Capitol Hill
played the Sax but it sounded quite shrill
The Sax player forlorn
would be shortly reborn
A Har-MONICA player named Bill

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:42 - ID#258142)
SDRer, 16:47 - Russia
I have read the article about Russia, you posted a link recently. I do not agree with many statements in it and I was thinking long before answering. You know, instead of arguing with the author of this article I shall tell You a story. Actually, it is a fable of a novel of one Russian writer, Platonov ( he was sentenced to death in Stalin time ) , that I have read many years ago. In 18th century a young French engineer comes to Russia. He wants to bring his modern knowledge and technology and make a career. His project is a channel between two important Russian rivers. He convinced state authorities, got money and people and start to work. But everything goes not as in the books - infrastructure is bad, supply not regular, his assistants laugh at him for not knowing simple domestic realities. Finally, project fails. Being a state employee, he faced a trial and got a death sentence for wasting of state money. Hangman raped him to death.
It is difficult to measure Russia with western criteria

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:45 - ID#147201)
SDRer re cotton TP
I saw them on a TV piece. It looks like a good thing to get in. Where does IPO come out?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:46 - ID#269409)
@ Tyoung
Tom you asked... "One thought...when has the herd or masses ever come out ahead? Food for thought. This time will be no different."

Let me give an example Tom. Real Estate. The "masses" purchased their residences en masse over the last few generations ( using borrowed money I might add ) ...and have come out way ahead in the bargain.

The analogy isn't too far off. Real estate ( of owner occupied homes ) is generally not thought of as a frequently traded investment. More like a very long term hold, except when re-locating or moving up.

Folks don't generally worry if their "asset" drops in value due to economy induced swings in the Real estate market cycle. They're in it for a different reason than month by month gains.

The same holds true for the long term retirement fund investor in a 401K, etc.. Contrary to the asssertions of an earlier post, they have already demonstrated that they will not "bail" when the going gets rough. A few may move their fund monies to bond or MMF funds when the market turns down. The vast majority just ride it out. That vast pool of trillions ( among a number of other basic economic factors ) is what creates a very strong floor on this U.S. equities market.

And lest we underestimate the magnitude of these holdings...the majority of personal net worth, for the majority of U.S. individual investors, resides indeed in their real estate and retirement fund equities.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:51 - ID#343171)
Tantalus Rex or Anyone who knows:
You said the Japaneses have US$10 TRILLION in savings, I've seen US$8 trillion written about in the past, where is this money now, the postal savings arena or insurance funds or ???. Is it real or has there again been the typical Japanese slight of hand accounting and they really have vastly less? TIA

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:58 - ID#384350)
Cool Jing - Japan's Trillions
8 or 10 Trillion, I suppose it's the same and it changes due to exchange rates. That money is tied up in trust funds that have been prohibited from investing outside of Japan by regulations slated to change on Dec 1, 1998.

Says Dr Kurt Richebcher, "The second installment of Big Bang is to be implemented on Dec 1, 1998. It will deregulate the trust funds in Japan, which currently account for the equivalent of some $9 Trillion US dollars ( in Yen ) on deposit yielding less than 1 percent. These funds have been prohibited by regulations from investing outside of Japan. We can expect that a large part of this huge pool of liquid funds will pour into the international financial markets. Wall Street is already licking its chops at the prospect of all this money which they feel will gravitate towards the US and precisely Wall Street.

Thus, the yen's ability to sink much further, should not be underestimated. The surest thing to expect from a falling yen is a devastating impact on the whole Asian region by sending currencies and stock markets into another tailspin, dramatically worsening the financial crisis."
One should also keep the Yen-carry trade in perspective.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 18:58 - ID#404410)
Tantalus Rex -- ref. Japanese gols purchases
In years past the Japanese used to favor platinum as their favorite asset to hoard. Even platinum jewelry, I believe. That was when their economy was in a bull market.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:03 - ID#269128)
LGB....but where is this "strong floor" ?
DOW 5000 .....or 1000

If all these "long termers" are not active market participants they could sit quietly by and watch the newcomers wipe out their last 10 years of painful gains and finally end up broke that would really suck!

Another factoid for you stock maniacs....90% of US business capital is NOT raised in the stock market....hmmm just what is the stock market then....a giant casino, perhaps...naaahhhh couldn't be a scam that big, could there, could there?!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:14 - ID#341234)
David Tice - Bearish Commentary
David Tice has an excellent new bearish commentary on the Prudent Bear site. It is too long to post here but worth reading.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:15 - ID#317193)
I'm 50...many I know have 125% loans against their houses. They will be wiped out if the economy fails, jobs are lost and stocks fall. Your position is based on a good and growing economy. Japan thought the same...the point I make is that if the economy goes south, as it surely will at some point, values will fall for stocks and real estate as people are forced to liquidate.

We watch this new debt market together. Yes?

Maybe all will be well for many years. Perhaps not. However, look around the after country with huge debt problems. The US is not immune. It is the extent of the impact that bothers me. I'm hedged heavily with gold and silver...guess that says more about what I think will happen than anything. Will be happy if neither every rises...but I think both will rise to values not thought possible.

We watch and wait. bbml


Mike Sheller
(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:18 - ID#347447)
LGB- Your 18:37

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:21 - ID#2071)
double browsing
just thought i'd drop in a brief note to thank sharefin for the site:

i go there, click on Kitco, and i've got a second browser open right at the gold discussion group. i find this is helpful because anytime someone posts a link to another site, i can just copy and paste it into the original browser "open ( url ) " field and not have to reload the discussion group using up valuable bandwidth. maybe that's a good solution for Goldteck too -- just paste in a url to the story instead of the whole story.

thanks to all for the excellent forum.
here in sf bay area y2k fever hasn't hit. you'd never know it's all about to come down...

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:31 - ID#286249)
Delphi @ 18:42, "It is difficult to measure Russia with western criteria."

Indeed yes. Lack of an appropriate, thoughtful "measure" lures too many to the very edge of a crumbling cliff.. Thank you for your insight.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:32 - ID#384350)
double browsing
FWIW, you can right click on a link, select "open in new window" and have 2 pages opened. You can also click "file" then "new" "window" ( Ctrl+N )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:38 - ID#29048)
Gianni Dioro
CRB Index news ( revised site )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:44 - ID#344326)
Rumour of "big package" being put together by G-7 for emerging markets....

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:48 - ID#429121)
Apologize in advance . . .
I found this rather amusing. If it has been posted before, please ignore. Intended for those Microsoft users out there...
The Microsoft folks have truly created a living thesaurus. Try this exercise: Go into Word. Type in "I'd like to see Clinton resign." Highlight it. Click on 'tools', then 'thesaurus.'

What did you come up with?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:55 - ID#286249)
Gianni Dioro-As much as one admires Dr. Richebcher,
one is compelled to entertain the probability that a goodly portion of "The Funds" will "work" regionally! Jiang's visit to Japan? The pressure on Japan to "be a good neighbor"?

While one does not doubt a tranche will land on US shores, and a larger tranche of Europe's shores, one strongly suspects the Lion's share will feed the Tigers, and worthy others deemed to be in distress through no fault [no grievous fault] of their own.

How will Japan build the consensus? Interesting to follow; there have, for example, been a host of Edo articles, focusing eyes toward a lifestyle less 'western' We will watch together, yes? {:- )

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:56 - ID#384350)
Speed, thanks for the link
I thought they had done away with it or something. It looks like 202.

Hoskins had done a chart with fan lines and said he was worried about 195 on the CRB. I suppose fan lines usually indicate that it will likely break down. And if this does happen, we can expect those countries like Mexico dependent on exporting commodities to suffer even more.

There are many holes in this dyke.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 19:58 - ID#176200)
@Tyoung...I am with you.
Although LGB makes many good points that are correct. I am in your camp! The rule among my many friends is the 125% mortgage and buy stocks. Most only have a checking account, no savings and all they got is in paper of some kind or another. Many of them are not doing bad ( in/on paper ) but, I also think that when the poop hits the fan it will be hell to pay. I find
VERY few people who would even consider buying a single Eagle or Maple Leaf.

We have ZERO ( 0 ) debt. Own the house, cars, et all, cretid cards on empty.
I am very comfy with that!

Best Regards, O.L.

Of course, not speaking for my employer.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:14 - ID#402148)
Dr. Ed (yardeni) was just on CSPAN about Y2K
Says third world will be toast and industrial world maimed due to lack of readiness.

Anyone have a rational for how gold/small cap golds will fair in that environment?



Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:16 - ID#384350)
Remember these are funds that have been locked up in Japan for all these years. These funds will want to go to where they perceive safety. Sure some will stay in the region, but If they see the US or UK bond yielding 5-6% compared to 1% in Tokyo, it wouldn't take a big percentage of $9 Trillion to do some damage. Also, don't forget what started this topic was the possibility of some of that Japanese money going into precious metals.

Richebcher is forward thinking and tells it like it is, unlike establishment economists like Blinder, whose crappy economics book they made me read in college. That's why I enjoy Richebcher's letter - he'll tell you in August why the Yen could drop in December, and many times he's spot on.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:18 - ID#240241)
I have to question your assumption on the 20 more years of "the same".
Got most of this from the following site.

The National Debt or Gross Federal Debt = Debt Held by the Government + Debt Held by the Public.

Debt held by the Government includes accounts such as Social Security, Civil Service Retirement, Military Retirement, Medicare,
Unemployment Insurance, and the Highway and the Airport and Airway Trust Funds.

Debt held by the Public = Debt issued by the Federal government and held by non-federal investors ( including the Federal Reserve System ) .
The Public Debt is the financial liability for the Government's borrowing.

The Deficit is the amount of Government expenditures ( outlays ) that exceed income from taxes and other revenues ( receipts ) over a specified
period. The deficit in fiscal year 1997 was $21.968 Billion.

As of September 16, 1998, the NATIONAL DEBT was $5,510,133,012,971.17

1. The national debt has increased at an average rate of

$7,435.08 per second, or

$642.4 Million per day, or

$ 1 Billion every 37 hours and 22 minutes.

2. The amount of currency in circulation has increased 71.1%, or an average of

$95.5 Million per day, or

$1 Billion every 10.5 days.

( Based on the latest end-of-month data from the Financial Management Service, U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, as of July 31, 1998 )

The interest on the public debt in fiscal year 1997 was $355.796 Billion, up from $343.955 Billion in FY 1996.

34.0% of the total public debt was foreign-held at the end of fiscal year 1997. In 1965 it was only 4.7%.
( Source: 1999 Budget of the United States Government, Analytical Perspectives volume, Table 13-6, page 255 ) FY99 Budget of the United States Government

Currently over $21,000 per person is required from every living person in the U.S.
to pay this off.

Do you believe that percentage wise this is going to stay the same?
go up? go down?

Another site that might be of interest to some.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:22 - ID#261295)
Hope I don't get 404'd, but

I copied this from the g o l d -eagle forum and it seemed important enough to transport it over to this group:

The evidence AGANIST a blind buy-and-hold strategy, especially for someone in or nearing retirement, is compelling... but buried in historical archives. The reason is apparent from the following data.
- During the past 22 years, there have been only 2 bear markets in which the S&P 500 lost over 20%.
- Bear markets have struck every 3-4 years.
- Larger bear markets ( ie losses greater than 35% in the S&P ) appeared about once every 10 years.
- Really painful bear markets ( ie those requiring over 3 years to recoup losses ) also hit about once every 10 years.
Therefore, a Buy-N-Hold strategy runs the high risk of suffering a painful big bear market.
Here are the strongest arguments AGAINST blindly following a 100% Buy-N-Hold investment philosophy in today's markets.
Industry..................1973-1974 Bear Losses
Toy & School supplies............-85%
Electrical Utilities.............-58%
Food Wholesalers.................-66%
Medical Supplies.................-66%
Petroleum Producers..............-55%
Natural Gas Dist.................-51%
Oil Services.....................-55%
Average losses suffered by "RECESSION-PROOF" INDUSTRIES was -62%
Stock............Revenues.........1973-1974 Bear Losses
General Electric...+31%...................-60%
General Motors......+3%...................-66%
Phillip Morris.....+34%...................-50%
Walt Disney........+30%...................-85%
Average losses suffered by "RECESSION-PROOF" STOCKS was -66%, even though average revenues were up a very respectable +30%
One may readily conclude a "BUY-and-HOLD" STOCK STRATEGY IS DANGEROUS to your investment health. Potential losses in ANY industry may be devastating to your portfolio

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:31 - ID#348286)
@Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, What a Surprise ............ Abby Cohen ???
``The third quarter profit estimates are coming down at the steepest rate for any quarterly revision this year, and we will probably end up with minus growth,'' said Chuck Hill, First Call's director of research.

U.S. profit outlook tells a tale of shifting sands

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - In what could be the weakest earnings in seven years, the third quarter is a tale of shifting sands for U.S. companies as the broadening emerging market crisis takes its toll on the mighty financial sector and technology companies begin to show signs of improvement.

Mostly recently, consumer products and industrial companies have joined financial institutions in sounding warnings on profits damage from their dealings in Latin America and Asia.

But for now, banks remain a key focus.

``There are going to be a lot of banks with serious trading losses due to what's happening in Russia and other emerging markets,'' said Michael Ancell, bank analyst at Edward Jones.

Hopes that the financial sector's woes will be limited to just the third quarter may well be dashed.

``I think there will also be some carry over into the fourth quarter because the situation in Latin America has not been resolved yet,'' Ancell added. ``The slower U.S. economy in 1999 will also have an impact on earnings for banks then.''

Ancell has already trimmed his 1998 and 1999 forecasts for BankAmerica Corp. ( NYSE:BAC - news ) and Citicorp ( NYSE:CCI - news ) but said savings from mergers should partly compensate trading losses.

Financials were among the star earners in the first half of the year, helping to counter weakness in another influential sector, technology, where the dent to bottom lines from Asia's crisis was compounded by overproduction of computer chips.

Consumer products and industrial companies that have warned about earnings include Gillette Co. ( NYSE:G - news ) , which blamed Asia, and Procter & Gamble Co. ( NYSE:PG - news ) , citing Russia's woes.

On Tuesday, Crown Cork & Seal Inc. ( NYSE:CCK - news ) , the world's biggest maker of packaging, ranging from beer to hair spray containers, said third quarter earnings will be dented by foreign currency weakness.


But the worst may be over for the techs with analysts expecting earnings to stabilize or even improve from the first half.

``There is no issue more important to technology than overall demand for personal computers, and enough inventory problems that existed in the first half have now been worked through,'' said Arnold Berman, a managing director at SoundView Financial Group.

Berman said the tone in the PC business is better in the third quarter than in the last two. The data communications sector, while slower than a year ago, has stabilized to some degree.

Asia does remain a problem. Compaq Computer Corp. ( NYSE:CPQ - news ) said Tuesday that the economic crisis in Asia would cause its revenues in the Asia Pacific to fall this year, but noted that the region accounted for just five percent of global sales.

A bigger jolt for investors came last week, when shares in Alcatel ( NYSE:ALA - news ) suffered the biggest one-day fall in the Paris Bourse's history after a profit warning.

``The big worry now, especially post the Alcatel disaster, is whether or not the telecom equipment companies are slowing,'' Berman said. ``But I have to say a lot of the bigger ones like Lucent and Northern Telecom still look to be in extremely good shape.''

Even where there is good news, worries persist. In software, Germany's SAP AG ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: SAPG.F ) ( NYSE:SAP - news ) opted not to raise its full-year profit estimate despite topping expectations in its first half. Just meeting the current full-year estimate would imply a second half slowing, Berman said.

``The fact that they have not been willing to take up guidance has bothered people a lot in software,'' Berman added.

Computer chip earnings are still expected to be tech sector laggards, but the tone has improved for bellwethers like Intel Corp. ( Nasdaq:INTC - news ) , which recently raised profit expectations.


Wall Street expects third quarter earnings for the broad market benchmark Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to be 0.04 percent below the same quarter last year, First Call said.

That would be the weakest since the recession-affected third quarter of 1991 when earnings tumbled 17.9 percent.

Nearly 200 companies have already issued profit warnings for the third quarter, much heavier than at this time last year and likely to beat the 259 warnings issued in the 1997 third quarter, First Call said.

``The third quarter profit estimates are coming down at the steepest rate for any quarterly revision this year, and we will probably end up with minus growth,'' said Chuck Hill, First Call's director of research.

For now, retailers offer a brighter spot as U.S. consumer spending is still healthy.

``We still think third quarter earnings will be strong, but sales have slowed from the rapid pace of the first half,'' said Gerri Sommers, a retail analyst at Merrill Lynch. ``The fourth quarter is a little early to predict, but right now we don't have concerns.''

``We favor more the supermarkets and drug stores, and rate-sensitive stocks like Home Depot ( NYSE:HD - news ) because of the economic concerns people have,'' Sommers added.

Some consumer-related companies are suffering, however. In the past week, consumer products company Tupperware Corp. ( NYSE:TUP - news ) and household and industrial products maker American Standard Cos. Inc. ( NYSE:ASD - news ) both skidded after profit warnings.

Metals and energy earnings will also stay lackluster in the third quarter with commodity prices still weak, analysts said.

European oil giant Royal Dutch/Shell ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: SHEL.L ) ( NYSE:RD - news ) sent a new shiver through the sector Friday when it said the second half business environment would be significantly worse than in the first half because of low oil prices and Asia.

Earnings of farm equipment makers will also show strain, although that is due more to a downturn in the agricultural sector rather than Asia, analysts said. Deere & Co. ( NYSE:DE - news ) and Case Corp. ( NYSE:CSE - news ) have already issued warnings.


While estimates have come down sharply for the third quarter, the bleak near-term outlook has not yet been fully reflected in revisions to future estimates, analysts said.

Analysts expect S&P 500 profits to grow 10.7 percent in the final quarter of this year, and rise 14.8 percent and 19.5 percent in the first and second quarters of next year.

``This is just pie in the sky - there is no way we will turn round that fast,'' Hill said.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:40 - ID#255151)
Heads Up Nick-- "Nickel Blown Higher on LME"

Seems Hurricane Georges knocked off a smelter in the Dominican Republic.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:41 - ID#147201)
Gianni D
How to contact Richebacher? I would like to read some of it. Many thanx, Charlie

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:41 - ID#119358)
@Hand me my Shah, dear, I feel a chill.............
One should become curious of Iran's moves ro re-ally with the is well underway......keep in mind the chess board has no memory.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 20:54 - ID#287279)
JTF - your 17:26 post
Prior to the release of the Starr Report, one of Starr's deputies, Robert Bittman has said that the Filegate scandal involved White House wrongdoing of "constitutional and historic importance reaching to the highest level of the federal government." He tried to bluff Clinton into resigning prior to the release by suggesting serious report of wrongdoing. It didn't work, and Starr's report had nothing in it about Filegate and about "constitutional and historic importance reaching to the highest level of the federal government.". Why not?
One day before Starr's report I made this post.
Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 20:06
Shek ( WJC ) ID#287279:
Copyright  1998 Shek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am not so sure that Clinton is finished.
For a number of reasons.
1. There have been so many scandals during this administration that if the Republicans were serious about going after Clinton, the opportunities were there ( Travelgate, Filegate, Cattlegate, etc. ) .
Gingrich and his boys already demonstrated to me that they will not go after potentialy disasterous things such as Waco, Foster and Brown. It could prove too damaging and shake people's confidence in the establishment.
2. The Republicans would prefer to have a wounded and ineffective president in Clinton, instead of having Gore ( and give him the opportunity to campaign early ) .
3. Clinton will destroy everyone around him if he has to in order to save
himself, and some Republicans are scared of that. Consequently, they may
strike a deal, censure him and allow him to continue ineffective.
4. There are some Democrats who appear to have broken the ranks. I believe its for public's consumption ( hedging ) . Deep down inside all Democrats must know that Clinton's impeachment could destroy the party for a long time and could give the Republicans the control of the presidency and Congress.
No Democrat wants that.
5. 15-20% of voters will stick with Clinton for political reasons regardless of his crimes. He can always count on them. They will stand behind him.
6. Everything that Clinton will be accused of in Starr's report can
TECHNICALY be defended. Perjury, obstruction of justice etc. And Clinton
will. All he needs is time. Two months to be exect. And you can bet that
Democrats on the committee will try to help him buy it. After the elections it will be easier for Clinton. AND in order for him to be impeached, many Dems will have to vote for impeachment. Will that happen?
Will Gingrich put the blame on Democrats for not impeaching Clinton?
I think we are seeing now point number 6 being implemented by Clinton.

Why is Starr so reluctant to report serious Clinton misdeeds/crimes?
One answer maybe that Clinton may implicate previous and current Republican leaders and bring the entire power structure/system down with him.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:01 - ID#384350)
Charlie - The Richebcher Letter
I warn you this Newsletter is Expensive.
The Richebcher Letter
1217 St. Paul St.
Baltimore, MD 21202

Tel: 1-800-433-1528 1-888-737-9358 or ( 410 ) 234-0691
fax: 1-410-223-2553

Summary of his conclusions to August issue:

Booming stock markets obscure the fact that the global economic outlook is the worst it has been in the whole post-war period.

There is a growing risk of contagion elsewhere in the emerging economies through the steep decline of commodity prices and retrenching international lenders and investors.

US manufacturing is already badly hammered by the soaring trade deficit. And Euroland will not pick up the slack.

The next move in US interest rates, albeit much later this year ( written for August issue ) will be down. Essentially, this development will be conducive, also later this year, to a falling dollar.

Don't let yourself be deceived by the low inflation rates. The world economy is out of balance as never before, except for the late 1920's. The risk of a more traumatic scenario involving the whole developing world in a global debt crisis is increasing.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:05 - ID#335190)
Global Uncertainties ???
September 22, 1998

Bank of Canada chief speech at 1150 EDT Wednesday

TORONTO, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen is scheduled to speak in St John's in the province of Newfoundland at 1:20 p.m. local time, or 1150 EDT/1550 GMT, on Wednesday, the Canadian central bank said on Tuesday.

After his speech to St John's Board of Trade on "global uncertainties and the Canadian economy," Thiessen will hold a news conference at about 2 p.m. local time, or 1230 EDT/1630 GMT.

The market is focused on how the central bank chief will describe Canada's economic health and the state of the Canadian currency, and will look for hints on how the bank will manage monetary policy.

September 22, 1998

Royal Oak announces $81-million writedown in assets

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Continued weakness in gold prices has been blamed for an $81-million writedown in assets announced Tuesday by Royal Oak Mines.

The company acknowledged it has not been selling gold forward, or hedging, to protect itself from market volatility.

The company has staked its future on the low-cost gold and copper mine.

Meanwhile, ore reserves that were valued at a gold price of $350 US per ounce at the end of 1997 may be worth only about $300 US per ounce at the end of this year.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:12 - ID#300202)
Prime Minister Chretien-Dumb & dumber.
shown on national t.v. stating he has never heard of pepper spray before.
"I do not know what it is" Was in reference to his orders to break up
a legal student demo in B.C. last year at a summit where Suharto was
attending. Horsemen got a little carried away. This is causing a Cdn
mini scandal. Cannot compare with U.S. Close but no ceeegar.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:14 - ID#290172)
Gianni Dioro " and many times he's spot on."

Actually, I agree! {:- ) ) ( and most particularly about Blinder's books!
Just think that the China/Japan 'relationship' is one of historic significance and, as such, will cause some measure of havoc in best laid plans!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:26 - ID#119358)
@IranianOil need not go to europa..........
Cause it burns better in the U.S.....

By Paul Taylor

UNITED NATIONS ( Reuters ) - Iranian President Mohammad Khatami challenged the United States Tuesday to match its new conciliatory tone towards his country with action to end sanctions and to change its Middle East policy.

In a rare news conference with Western reporters on his first visit to New York, Khatami said Washington had not really changed its behavior or attitude towards Iran despite President Clinton's more respectful tone towards Islam.

He also said he was doing his best to prevent war with Afghanistan and vowed to continue expanding freedom of expression and the rule of law in Iran despite setbacks at the hands of his conservative Islamist opponents.

The reformist president, who earlier this year raised hopes of a thaw after nearly 20 years of deep U.S.-Iranian hostility since the 1979 Islamic revolution, listed a series of negative American actions which he said continued unabated.

They included economic sanctions, efforts to prevent Caspian oil and gas export pipelines crossing Iran, a continued freeze on Iranian assets in the United States and programs funded by Congress to undermine the Iranian government.

``These examples and others show that in behavior and in attitude there has been no real change,'' Khatami said.

However, he said he sensed some change of tone in Clinton's U.N. General Assembly speech Monday. ``We welcome any respectful mention of our nation, culture and civilization and we too have shown that we want to talk with respect about other cultures and civilizations,'' he said.

Although they addressed the General Assembly on the same day and came within a few hundred yards ( metres ) of each other, Khatami and Clinton did not meet.

And Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazzi abruptly dropped out of a planned meeting with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and ministers from other countries about Afghanistan Monday, sending his deputy instead.

Iranian officials said Kharazzi was asked to accompany the president to another appointment at the last minute, but they were unable to dispel the impression that Iran got cold feet.

Khatami's courteous meeting with about 20 mainly American reporters, including such household names as CBS television newscaster Dan Rather, was meant to signal his desire for better understanding with the United States.

But his philosophical reflections on dialogue between Islamic and Western civilization were not matched by any specific proposal for building political relations or any new concession to U.S. and European concerns.

He defended Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for the Hizbollah militia fighting Israeli occupation in South Lebanon. He also declared the Salman Rushdie affair closed without changing in substance Iran's position on the death sentence passed on the British writer by the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

U.S. and Iranian officials said Kharazzi was expected to give a more detailed response to Albright's call for a ``road map'' to improving relations when he addresses the Asia Society of New York next Monday.

Asked over breakfast for his impressions of New York, Khatami admitted he had only seen his hotel room and the halls of U.N. headquarters across the street, but said he wished he had been able to tour the city and meet the people.

He renewed his call for academic and cultural dialogue between Iranians and Americans to remove misunderstandings but said government-to-government relations depended on actions, not just words.

Declaring that Israel, not Iran, posed a real threat of weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East, Khatami called for a change in U.S. policy to press the Jewish state into giving more territory and rights to the Palestinians.

Khatami said that despite an Iranian military buildup on the border with Afghanistan, he was trying to prevent a war and welcomed U.N. moves to promote a diplomatic settlement in the war-torn central Asian state.

``Iran is ready to defend its security and territorial integrity but we are making all efforts so that, God willing, there will not be a war,'' he said.

Khatami said the eight-power meeting at the United Nations Monday, where participants decided to investigate reported massacres by the Taleban Sunni Muslim militia and send a U.N. envoy to promote negotiations to form a broad-based government in Kabul, had taken ``acceptable steps to remove the problem in a diplomatic way.''

But he said: ``We have deep concerns about the Taleban, so no matter how much diplomatic effort there is, it will not be in proportion to the concern we have.''

The most immediate concern was to prevent a massacre of what he called the defenseless people living in regions captured by the Taleban. Iran and human rights groups have accused the militia of mass killings of members of the Shi'ite Muslim Hazara ethnic minority after the capture of the towns of Mazar-i-Sharif and Bamiyan.

Khatami said he expected pipelines to export Caspian basin oil and gas to be built across Iran despite U.S. efforts to promote alternative routes. All experts agreed Iran offered the most economical, secure and environmentally safe route to take Caspian hydrocarbons to Turkey and European markets, he said.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:36 - ID#219363)
Goldman Sachs Reports Lower Profits
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Goldman Sachs & Co. posted a 19 percent drop in profit for its fiscal third quarter and warned of more bad news as the ongoing upheaval in global financial markets clobbered Wall Street firms with hefty trading and underwriting losses. The profit drag and continued stock market turbulence could influence Goldman's decision whether to go ahead as planned with its initial sale of common stock to the public in late October or early November. A company spokesman refused to comment. Goldman is the first securities firm to post earnings for the period -- expected to be one of the worst for the industry since the fourth quarter of 1994. Its performance usually is an early glimpse of what to expect from Wall Street, but this time it created less excitement because many firms already have forewarned investors of profit shortfalls.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:36 - ID#287114)

French and small town Quebec

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:42 - ID#119358)
@kolloquial kitco.........
I swear I heard Insana, or one of those guys, say "N.A.B." this afternoon.......and one of the other guys retorted, "yea, not as before" ( giggle ) ....see, you have an audience. It was not in reference to gold.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:43 - ID#219363)
Trouble Finds Russia Economy
MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russia's economy is shrinking and imports are down. Inflation is climbing and so is unemployment. With each day, new statistics are showing the depth of the country's economic crisis. The State Customs Committee delivered the latest piece of bad news Tuesday, reporting that imports plummeted 19 percent in August compared with a year ago. With the national currency, the ruble, rapidly losing value, the price of many imports has doubled since the crisis erupted Aug. 17. A day before, the State Statistics Committee reported that the country's economy shrank 2.1 percent during the first eight months of the year -- which was before the worst of the current crisis hit.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:45 - ID#219363)
Gasoline Prices at 6 1/2 Year Low
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The price of gasoline is at its lowest level in 6 1/2 years, according to a survey conducted for the American Automobile Association. The AAA, which surveys gas prices around the nation each month, said the average price of a gallon of self-serve regular unleaded gas this month was $1.057, down 1.8 cents from August and 23.1 cents from a year ago. This month's average is the lowest since March 1992, when a gallon of self-serve regular unleaded averaged $1.049.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:45 - ID#147201)
Gianni D re Richebacher
Many thanx for the info. If youplease, how about emailing me. Thank you, Charlie

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:48 - ID#386245)
Dec. Gold Chart
Note that the decline in June stopped at @290. This level was broken to the downside in Aug. and then provided an upper barrier.Then came the big drop at the end of Aug. ( the lowest level you will see in your lifetime ) and straight back up again, only to be halted at @290. Finally breached 290 to the upside in early Sept. and failed in a quick shot at 300. This 290 level is now providing support as it gathers strength for the next move to 300.

This is a normal correction of a big up move. There may be more correcting to come. The next leg up will take us through 300, though it may bounce off it a couple more times as it is a big psychological barrier. 300 will fall and then the shorts will be sent off to the laundromat in disgrace as the third up leg powers through to 325+.
All MVHO, of course. Famous last words are at least famous, eh??

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:49 - ID#119358)
Sold some dirty ol' West Texas oil wells this afternoon. got kash. I countered the buyer at double their offer....they bot. Market tightening ya'll.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:51 - ID#219363)
Report: Oil Heads To Meet in Summit
LONDON ( AP ) -- Heads of some of the world's biggest oil companies plan to meet in Europe next week to discuss the slump in crude prices and the growing global economic uncertainty, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. The summit of about 20 companies is thought to be the first time in recent years that oil industry chief executives have assembled informally for talks on the future of the sector, the newspaper said. The Financial Times report did not specify where in Europe the talks would be held. According to an unnamed organizer of the event, a senior U.S. energy lawyer has been invited to the summit to head off any suspicion that the oil giants intend to carve up markets or engage in price-fixing.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:53 - ID#300202)
sums it up skinny
More wasted bandwidth. Had a guy in my bus. establishment today from
Main a Dieu-Cape Breton. Main a Dieu is a hole in the wall & everyone
is related. Asked him about Ted @ Nytol. Kitco regs know him. I spelled
out his full name ( I will not post here ) . Says he still lives in Main a Dieu, is a lobster fisherman, does not sea kayak-nor would anyone sea
kayak to where Nytol says he does ( Scaterie Island-too treacherous ) All
my internet descriptors of him wud be indictative of the same guy incl
age. Maybe 75 people living there & definitely not two of them. Same being posted because of natural curiosity

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:53 - ID#401460)

Crude Oil ( NYM ) ( Access )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 21:57 - ID#376309)
Nick - I think you mean $225.0 don't you!


The next wave down will crush all longs before the real move starts!

Greenstone Gold
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:04 - ID#427265) Brazilian Reals.......

Truning the corner.........?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:06 - ID#300202)
Glenn @ Hit & Run
Plse provide rationale

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:06 - ID#290281)
James Stack's Investech
The Call/Put ratio has finally begun to move away from an extreme oversold reading as traders realize the first leg of this bear market has ended. We are seeing more strength in the secondary stocks than the blue chips as the bottom-fishers come in to pick up the pieces. This should dry up the sidelines cash.

On the best of the best days, there are STILL 150 stocks hitting new yearly lows on both exchanges. Those are bear market numbers, so while the bear is resting - he hasn't left the arena.

Greenstone Gold
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:10 - ID#435212)
So, when does Hollywood......

......come out with the "Saviour" of the Capitalist World......

Will it star Slick Bill........

Will it be an A, R or XXX rated movie....

US Warned on Global Economic Crisis [Sep 22] "... the United States is closer to crisis than it thinks... "

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:12 - ID#266105)
keep your damn bell, just leave me the crack

MEXICO CITY, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. dollar has become the
world's monetary standard, better loved than Coca-Cola, and the Federal
Reserve must protect it as fiercely as any multinational would its top brand, a Fed official said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a conference of Mexican finance executives here, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Jerry Jordan said the dollar, not Coke, was the world's top brand name.

``We need to protect that brand name just as tenaciously as ( Coca-Cola ) protects ( its ) brand name,'' Jordan said in response to a question after delivering a speech on ``Economic Infrastructure for Global Prosperity.''

............btw, it's not widely known that when Coke was coke
its main competitor of the day, 7-Up, was laced with lithium.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:12 - ID#300202)
@ Nytol Ted
And no New Orleans Judge living in Main a Dieu. Nytol stated that this judge purchased his res. Had this Local Main a Dieu guy ROFL

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:13 - ID#300202)
@ Nytol Ted
And no New Orleans Judge living in Main a Dieu. Nytol stated that this judge purchased his res. Had this Local Main a Dieu guy ROFL. Also mentioned neighbour & dog. DO NOT EXIST.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:18 - ID#219363)
Japan Markets Closed for Holiday
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Financial markets are closed Wednesday for Autumnal Equinox Day, a national holiday. The markets will reopen Thursday, Sept. 24.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:18 - ID#348286)
@Bart Kitner
Please take note of glenn's pledge. Hope that 1000. will help keep this site going.
Worst case we may revisit 270. - 280. , but that should be it and a powerfull rally will ensue........

Lurker 777
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:22 - ID#317247)
Glenn the AU man
What are your current positions? I have some Dec 99 290 Puts and was waiting until $300 spot to buy more Puts. The Dec 99 290 are $1,200 each and a little rich for my blood. What do you think about some Feb 99 260 at $130 each? $225 by when?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:23 - ID#255151)
Gold @ 2-2-5?

Will buy 3 Mounties from Kitco if that happens.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:24 - ID#348286)
@" investors withdrew a net amount of $9 billion from equity-based mutual funds" (From Stockhouse)
A more noteworthy story today came from U.S. mutual fund tracking specialists, Lipper Analytical. Their statistics for August indicate investors withdrew a net amount of $9 billion from equity-based mutual funds, marking the first time in eight years that stock funds experienced net redemptions for a month. This data supports the observation we have made a few times during the recent volatility that investors' long-held "buy-on-weakness" attitude may finally have been shaken. It will be very interesting to track these statistics over the next few periods to see if a new bearish trend is emerging.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:28 - ID#290281)
There I go again....Stealing from another thread.
From: Henry Volquardsen

Tuesday, Sep 22 1998 11:47AM ET

To the thread:

Keep your ears open the next few weeks. There are rumours in the markets of a 'big

package' being put together by th G-7 to put some sort of floor under global risk

generally, and emerging markets specifically. There are no specific details as yet but the

sources appear credible. Timing appears to be after German elections and the Fed's

meeting. Brazil appears to be the near term target. Russia, however, does not appear to

be high on the priority list.

From a strategic perspective this makes sense. The speculative community was hurt

badly by Russia and Malaysian currency controls. They are not in as strong a position as

they were 6 months ago. So the timing is right for a concerted defense. But even given

that the G-7 need to select the right point to set their line of defense. Russia is a basket

case and indefensible given its current situation. Brazil on the other hand has a real and

functioning economy. Yes they have problems but they are amenable to reform. Brazil

would probably be the G-7s best target for drawing a line in the sand.

FWIW I am not saying yes or no to what ever plan may be in formation. There are not

enough details. But we could be in for some interesting developments. And it certainly

makes sense for the G-7 to try something and I've been expecting them to pick Brazil.

Let's hope it is their Bastogne and not their Alamo.


(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:32 - ID#255151)
Clinton & Coke

Notice the diet Coke in the tapes? Here is
what Coca Cola has done in the last 5 days-- and the
last 3 months--

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:34 - ID#255151)

Last 3 months

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:34 - ID#255151)

Last 3 months

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:38 - ID#119358)

who knows? I talked to him several times via phone....he and Kristine were listed in the phone directory. That # does not work now.

EB has spoken to him via phone at the new area code. I have yet to reach him successfully at the new number.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:38 - ID#334219)
And what is your time frame for this move to $225 ?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:42 - ID#119358)
Does anyone know how to spell the last name of the regular on Wall St. the name of Frank Cap......??? garcias.

John B
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:43 - ID#17470)
Greenspan to Speak tomorrow
WASHINGTON, Sept 21 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will testify on Wednesday before the Senate Budget Committee on global economic issues, a Fed spokeswoman said on Monday. The testimony is planned to start at 2 p.m. EDT ( 1800 GMT ) , she said. ) )

John B
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:44 - ID#17470)
I believe its Capiello.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:45 - ID#431200)
Noranda says not interested in Zambia copper mines
Tuesday, September 22, 1998
Noranda says not interested in Zambia copper mines
TORONTO, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - Canadian mining giant Noranda Inc. denied on Tuesday it was preparing to re-emerge as a potential buyer of, or partner in, two prized copper mines in Zambia.
 Toronto-based Noranda, which recently committed itself to a 37.5-percent share of the US$2.2 billion Antamina copper project in Peru, confirmed it had rejected an offer from Anglo American Corp. of South Africa Ltd. to form a joint venture interest in the Nkana and Nchanga mines.
 "They did approach us and we declined to participate. We've got other things on the go, such as Antamina," Noranda spokeswoman Helen Reeves said.
 Noranda was part of a group of international mining companies, dubbed the Kafue consortium, that was negotiating with largely state-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines earlier this year to buy the mines.
 The consortium, which also included U.S.-based Phelps Dodge Corp. , South Africa's Avmin Ltd. and the British-based Commonwealth Development Corp., had offered Zambia US$1 billion for the two mines.
 Zambia rejected that offer three months ago as too low, but the impoverished country has since come under growing pressure to sell the mines and put a derailed privatization plan back on track.
 Zambian Mines Minister Syamukayumbu Syamujaye said on Tuesday the government had found no new bidders since talks with the consortium collapsed.
 The Nkana and Nchanga mines account for 65 percent of Zambia Consolidated's output, while the company itself generates 90 percent of Zambia's hard currency.
 Zambia, once among the world's biggest copper producers, has seen its output halved since 1970 due to mismanagement and the continued use of aged equipment

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:47 - ID#119358)
that's what I thought too...except I can't locate him on the web using that spelling...tried capriello too.

John B
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:50 - ID#17470)
sorry, its spelled Cappiello

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:56 - ID#300202)
Not my intention to discredit anyone-but-my inquisitive nature has
compelled me to ask questions. Even previously posted wife's afflction
was confirmed but to another part of the body. I have relatives in that area of Main a Dieu who have previously stated same. I have also a brother in law who has had financial dealings with a Ted F. & also states
he is a lobster fisherman who does not kayak nor wud anyone kayak to
Scaterie Island. Same is evidenced by the number of wrecks on the bottom.
Maybe there are two, but evidence suggests not. Emphatically I wud state
kayaking to that island is not a possibility & there is definitely a Ted
F. still a resident there-born & bred.

Just puzzled!

Greenstone Gold
(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:56 - ID#427265)
A "simple" scenario.........

Once upon a time there was a junior gold exploration company, who a modest resource which they had incorrectly evaluated - the applkied a stratigraphic control, and not a structural geologic control. Hence the resource was under estimated in terms of grade Resource 5 million tonnes at 1.2 g/t, at a 0.7 g/t cutoff.....

The share price was AU$ 0.5....

A Fairy Godmother arrived.....who then put US$6 million into exploration....

The resource then grew to 100 million tonnes plus, the grade still 1.2 g/t using the stratigraphic model.......however, the structural controls were identified, and a limited program put in place to evaluate the structural model.....this program was cut short, due a "Flying Horses" demise, via the stock market resource crash.........

Application of the structural model WILL result in a grade engancement from 1.2 g/t to 1.6 / 1.8 g/t using a 0.7 g/t cutoff...........

And so, this resource now sits in the grade, requiring a "Fairy Godmother"....

THE POINT of all this is...... the "Market" has lost touch with fundamentals, with the electonic dollars wizzing from A to Z, the M, The U, the C etc............growth requirement, or acceptance, has now been draawn into a time scale of TODAY.....

The above resource of ( inferred category ) 100 million tonnes at 1.6 g/t ( 0.7 g/t cutoff ) sits in the ground............potential 2 million ounce gold resource........converted to reserves 1 million ounces ?...... dollar value AU$ 500 000 000...... share price AU$0.05, comapny worth AU$ 2.75 million.......... a STEAL............

Who said the gold industry was dead.........BARGINS GALORE.....

The Opinion Reports TODAY say........ Bill's problems, they were yesterday ?!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 22:56 - ID#119358)
you got 'em!

muchas garcias!!!!!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:00 - ID#187109)
StudioR'O - Have I asked you this before? I read in the paper the other day that there was this guy in Bakersfield that is looking for small towns with oil deposits. He is planning on pumping the oil burning it for energy and selling it to the town. He is waiting for the deregulation to happen that will allow him to do so.....kinda gettin a jump on things. Perhaps you should do the same??!? Screw just pumping the black-gold.........burn it baby, BURN IT! I think that you should invest in water wells too. It won't be too long before water is more expensive. When the bottom falls out of oil offense Cherokazi! Oil will be sold into the dirt again.......count on it......maybe sooner than you think. I am looking to short this recent rally.....'tis approaching overbought sigs......uh huh.......not there yet but soooooooon.....

Caper - Ted lives in Swans Island, Maine. He is busting his ass daily building his new digs.....that is all. Put that baby to bed.

Glenn - gold@2-2-5? whoulda thunk it? Hmmmmmmmmm...... scratch my noggin...


John B
(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:00 - ID#17470)
$225 gold seems extreme. What rationale leads you to that conclusion. A very very deep worldwide deflationary recession?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:05 - ID#119358)
His name is Edward S.......

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:13 - ID#187109)
Mounties w/ gold at 2-2-5
Doesn't the Can-Gub PAY you $85.00 per coin to take them offa their hands?? Auric......I'd be buyin' more than THREE. That's money you hear.....falling offa da trees..........ohmy! await the fall in POG whilst drooling profusely.......
uyerwithBOTHhandsandBOTHademfeetstoo ( ! )

to the couch for some serious relaxin'.......I am reading 'AGONY and ECSTASY' again.........Irving Stone............damn good. Big Mike thought marble was GOOOOOOLD!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:18 - ID#431200)
Hillary smiles, waves and hides her pain
September 22, 1998

Hillary smiles, waves and hides her pain

WASHINGTON ( CP ) -- The intensity of Hillary Clinton's smile seems to have become more fixed as her public humiliation deepens.

If she is aching through some personal agony as the seamy details of her husband's dalliance with Monica Lewinsky are given continuous airing, she is hiding her pain behind a brick wall of smiles and waves during a whirlwind of public appearances.

There have been no cracks in the wall and no public wallowing in misery.

"She doesn't wallow," said Marsha Berry, her spokeswoman.

Hillary Clinton has not gone into hiding. Fundraisers, 4-H Club events, meetings of feminist Democrats -- she is only too pleased to appear at them all.

While many Democrats have been shunning Bill Clinton, everyone wants to be with Hillary.

"I think it's remarkable that when you talk to Democratic candidates and consultants, almost to a person, they don't want the president to campaign with them, they do want the first lady," said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

Hillary's crowds are uniformly adoring. But they also sift through her speeches for some hint of the domestic devestation her husband has wrought.

The U.S. president has repeatedly referred to the "painful work" he needs to do to repair his marriage. His wife has never addressed the issue in public. So her body language, her demeanour and her public pronouncements are intensely scrutinized for some sign of turmoil.

She hasn't given a waiting world a single hint.

"I think there's a lot you can help teach Americans about resilience and hope and grit and determination," she told children last week at the National 4-H Centre in Chevy Chase, Md.

The remarks were aimed at the adolescents. Who could not have wondered if she were referring to herself?

How can she absorb the sight of her husband admitting to a nationally television audience that he and Lewinsky enjoyed a series of clumsy Oval Office gropes, while she unknowingly sat one floor above in the White House residence?

Her spokeswoman repeats a mantra whenever questions are raised about the Clintons' marriage.

"She has made it clear that she supports her husband, she loves him and she forgives him," Berry said.

She has not only forgiven his indiscretions in the past, she has rescued his political career in the process.

Her rock-solid support while braying "I'm not some little Tammy Wynette" during a 60 Minutes appearance with her husband saved Clinton's presidential campaign in 1992, when Gennifer Flowers decided the week before the New Hampshire primary was a good time to let the world know she and then-governor Clinton had been lovers.

When the vaunted White House crisis machine was gasping and sputtering for days after reports of Clinton's assignation with Lewinsky were initially made public, it was Hillary again who took the wheel.

She went on national television and blamed the latest threat to her 23-year marriage on a "politically motivated" prosecutor allied with a "vast right-wing conspiracy."

Her husband's standing in opinion polls soared.

She hasn't said a word about her since Sept. 11 when Kenneth Starr first laid out the unvarnished details of her husband's latest infidelity.

Her spokeswoman insists she didn't read the report or watch her husband's videotaped testimony broadcast Monday. She only watches television to catch her home town Chicago Cubs and Sammy Sosa's pursuit of the home-run record.

Public sympathy has been overwhelming. But Internet sites dedicated to the Clintons are clogged with those who say her insistence on staying with a serial adulterer serves as a bad example to all wronged women.

"How could any real woman stay with a man who has jumped in other women's beds for many years?" asked one woman who identified herself as Sue.

An answer might be found in her childhood in Chicago, when almost all of her friends were rocked by their parents' divorce.

"My strong feelings about divorce and its effects on children have caused me to bite my tongue more than a few times during my own marriage and to think instead about what I could do to be a better wife and partner," she wrote in her book, It Takes A Village.

So she smiles and buries her pain. She holds hands with her wayward husband at a state dinner for Vaclav Havel and laughs as he mouths the words to Mustang Sally as they rock on the dance floor.

And when the Peace Corps director introduces her as someone who would make a great overseas volunteer, her response reveals a tiny crack in the brick wall: "Maybe I'll just leave this afternoon. Point me in the right direction.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:18 - ID#300202)
Putinit to bed when u tell him the other Ted F. says hi from Main a Dieu. Perhaps Main a Dieu is bigger than I thought-maybe 80 peeples
+ Eddie & dog. E.B-why wud u be offended? I sat here & watched this man
dump severely on people struggling to make a living in this welfare stricken area. U know one side. Come here & I'll show u. Don't have a love affair with cyber words.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:22 - ID#119358)
@EBurnin', big wheel keep on turnin'........proud mary keep on.......
rollin'...rollin'...... ( horns )

Utilities will cut that poor sumabitch off@da'pass. Been' der...ate dat. cross an alley with your electric power, and you is illegally competin' with dat bigboy utility. took it to the supreme court...lost...I know. Lini's Dad...first in U.S. with co-gen.

Oil is the anti-depressant son, don't you know! goin' to twenty+ save oil and save the world.... stay outta' da way, son....biggestboys headed that way.......freight train, baby....ding....ding....ding......choooooo......chooooo.allaboard.


keepin' gooduns'...............un gulpO y un puffO to YA!!! nytol@studio long day....profit can be tiring ( as you know )

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:23 - ID#350145)
comex silver stocks
according to Steven Kaplan comex silver stocks took a large drop mon & tue; and are at historical lows ( about 75,000,000oz ) this seems like it should be precipitating an upward move. i do not have the knowledge to know if this is real or not, or how we should be thinking about this. i am very long silver, but it is based on a rather sloppy historical analysis by me. does anyone have any thoughts or insight? 75,000,000 oz, more or less, sure seems like a small amount to me against $4.90 silver.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:26 - ID#255151)

G'day EB. I think it's $3-2-5 minimum for the coin, regardless of price of Gold. I'll e mail Bart to confirm. Will also find out how many still exist, since the RCM melts down all redeemed Mounties. Last I heard, 8,500 of the original 30,000 had been melted. Seems a shame, eh!

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:32 - ID#252391)
Silver stocks and Greenstone Resources/
Is this the Greenstone GRERF that the earlier post was wluding too. Do I take you comments as being bullish.

Silver stocks, yes at all time lows on the Comex but how much oversees. ARe stocks being moved to be covered in secrecy - this to me is the story behind both the fall in stocks and the fall in silver prices. As Rody has pointed out the movement in the lease rate will tell us if the shortage is real. So far the short sellers are not moved. These supposedly sophisticated players can see as well as you and I that there are only supplies at Comex equal to 15,000 contract equal to 1/5th the open interst. WHY are they not moved??? Because till now they can borrow more to replace their loans??? Or and, they can borrow becasue there are substantial hordes in Europe outside our vision.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:35 - ID#300202)
In Closing
Before I bid nite-ol-there may be a Ted F on Swanns I. but confirmed there is still one in Main a Dieu who lobster fishes & who does not know the other one. AND there is no New Orleans Judge residing in Main a Dieu. No Eddie S either.

Off to bed to speak to my imaginery friends & his dog.

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:36 - ID#222231)
What a beautiful documentary about Hillarious. Do you really believe she has not known bout WJCs indiscretions? Do you believe that they have ever slept together since Chelsea? If she were truly doing her job as a wife, WJC would'nt have any strength left to philander. Her purpose in life is POWER that WJC can give her through his office and nothing else. That is all that matters to that Barracuda. IMHO.

Best regards,


(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:37 - ID#187109)
...cyber words...
Caper - I am not offended. I know Ted/Ed. He tells it like it it or not. He lives in Maine now. I will tell him that Willy is OK. He will be glad to hear it. He dumped on many who needed to be dumped on. A wake up call if you will...........Cheers Mate ;- )

Auric - G'day. I think you are right. I was just making fun. I am waiting for the day when EVERYONE but 'little ole me' turns in their Mounties leaving ONLY ONE left. MINE! It will be worth SQUILLIONS!!!$$$$$$$$ YAHOOOOOOOOOO!$$$!$$!$!!$!$!$!$!$!$!$!

StudioR - I said he is waitin for the dereg thingy..............damn gubments......screwin the works again.........AGULP-o-rum to ya........sailin' on the good ship..........aaaaargh matey!



(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:45 - ID#254321)
Brazil, Japan, Russia
All: These are probably the key countries embroiled in the world's financial crisis. And -- Brazil has alot of American investment ( European too? ) . So the G7 decides to bail out Brazil. It wasn't long ago that the G7 was worried about Russian and Japanese instability. Are they history now?

One key question -- who is going to get stuck with the bailout bill? The EMU, the US government, or the American people? And -- what has been done with the Brazilian infrastructure to indicate that the bailout funds will have any lasting effect? Is the Brazilian economy any more vibrant than the economies of the SEAsian countries before their financial crisis?

What I fear is that the G7 sets up the last line in the sand, but just delays the inevitable. But, in the process the American people get saddled with some more debt. Still don't know how they will get the money if the IMF can't get $18 billion US.

By the way, what happened to that 1.4 trillion US in debt that went sour when SEAsia folded? Mostly Japanese and European. Rolled over yet?

(Tue Sep 22 1998 23:53 - ID#300202)
EB al la fonzie @ tellin it the way he thinks it is
I live & breathe it-u don't. Goin to bed & will review in the AM ur tellin it the way it is in Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. Lookin fwd
to ur precis or elongated version if u like. Love ya EB. Wud rather
hear a realistic version of Gold futureism. Am da only gold bug on the Island unless Another ( Ted's Bud ) resides here.