Fed Secretary Summers stated tonight on Money Line that it is time to change direction from fighting inflation to promoting growth. I wonder what that means? Off to second-mortgage the farm and buy precious metals with both hands. Gitty-up!

September 22, 1998

US Republican governors take on Canada agriculture

WASHINGTON, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - Republican governors in five northern states are staging a protest of sorts to draw attention what they say are inequities in the U.S. farm trade relationship with Canada.

Following the lead of South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow, governors in North Dakota, Idaho, Montana and Minnesota have jumped into the fray to varying degrees -- creating a dicey problem for the Clinton administration and a major headache for Canadian exporters.

"It's not clear to USDA under what under authority the governors are acting," a spokesman said. "At this point, it's a matter for the legal system to work out."
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/US-REPUBLICAN-GOVERNO.html

September 22, 1998

US Republican governors take on Canada agriculture

WASHINGTON, Sept 22 ( Reuters ) - Republican governors in five northern states are staging a protest of sorts to draw attention what they say are inequities in the U.S. farm trade relationship with Canada.

Following the lead of South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow, governors in North Dakota, Idaho, Montana and Minnesota have jumped into the fray to varying degrees -- creating a dicey problem for the Clinton administration and a major headache for Canadian exporters.

"It's not clear to USDA under what under authority the governors are acting," a spokesman said. "At this point, it's a matter for the legal system to work out."
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/US-REPUBLICAN-GOVERNO.html

September 22, 1998

U.S. border official says new crossing rules won't come in Oct. 1

SEATTLE ( AP ) -- The Immigration and Naturalization Service won't put new rules into effect next week that many feared would jam Canadian border crossings, a spokeswoman said Tuesday.

"By our calculations, if each check takes two minutes, which is optimistic, the wait will be up to 17 hours on the first day," he told the Seattle Times newspaper.

Businesses and residents on the U.S. side of the border have been equally upset at the prospect of long traffic jams. The new procedures also would come at a time when Canadian visitation to U.S. border cities is down, because of the lower value of the Canadian dollar.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Border-Jam.html

And GOD bless TED...and that is that...end of story...

Here 'tis-- http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9809/22/mlld.00.html

Gianni Dioro RE: Charlie - The Richebcher Letter; GEE, and one can get the same info here for FREE!

MoReGoLd, Glenn-- If gold sees 277 again, it WILL go further. But right now, I see about 286 Dec gold as the place to watch for further weakness. I can take it a day/minute at a time, as ALL who are in stocks and/or commodities SHOULD! BUT, should a 225 EVER be seen again, expect the full effects of collapse happening and physical commodities TOTALLY going to hell! It would be the the absolute last gasp of the buck! And anybody who REALLY expects 225 gold should have a standing BUY order in to buy near there OR LOWER! In ONE pseudo justification of such a move would be Jeil's charts. I, for one, am still watching how they 'conform' to projection. And regardless how 'low' 'stuff' seems to be now, they ain't at zero and thus can still travel lower! We've ALL seen that happen! Simply plan for the worst and be able to sleep at night!

On the lighter side while laughing over Jay Leno on the tonight show, He said that Monika had delivered a cigar holder to Bill. ---- She couldn't be there!!! HAR!
But, I want to know if those were AMERICAN cigars!

Well, I'm sensitive to commodity prices. :- ) @Cherokee.. any idea why butter this week at the market is $4.89/lb. Last week $2.85. @Gollum? any 'gators under butter? I bot a bunch o' physical silver last week. I bot 40% coins. Figured they would be good trading items, had a guaranteed downside protection, and would be better than tying up $$$ in green bills in case Y2k is more than a yawn ( which I still suspect is highly likely ) . Just another datapoint that caught my eye.

Dutchman -- It means it may be time to REALLY load up on debt! Pay it back either with much much cheaper dollars or with a few golden coins down the road. BUT, BUY THOSE COINS FIRST!

She always said that she still love her husband regardless all the events.Everybody say that she is a very smart women. She sacrified a very brilliant carreer for love.But I still think that at the end power is more important than pride or love for her.Just an opinion.

I always thought that TED was a Turing Experiment anyway

6pak -- Amazing what the dolts in congress pass as laws without first READING IT!!! Never mind. They do it all the time. Idiots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dutchman -- Just make sure you get a FIXED rate on your usury payment!

6pak -- It would be EVER so much better if we paid each congressman and senator 10million dollars/year NOT to submit or vote for ANY legislation, unless it was to eliminate existing legislation, in which case they might get a further bonus! Now THAT might be a piece of work legislation in and of itself!

To Retired Soldier: Regarding Goldtek, Goldiehawk said it well. Here's a suggestion- Next time you have something similar to post kindly do it on K2. I can live with that. Then you can post a polite little message here inviting the individual to check out K2 if he cares to read about how you feel about his contributions to our group.

To Glenn: A $1000 contribution sounds nice. It will be immediately used to buy the hardware, software, and programming time to add a keyword-based search function to this site. We'll poll everyone to see what features we should put in. $1000 should cover everything.

You realize of course that no one's going to let you forget your promise now.

I even added your comment in my "favorites" so that it could be archieved in the event it needed to be retrieved should gold run to $325.



Regards



Rolly

Bart -- Gee whiz! We must have posted something that is thought provoking or something. Ever see this place so quiet when the 'scene' was still up?

Was that $1000 US dollars or Canadian dollars. Or perhaps we should have you convert your pledge to 3.47 oz's of gold as one never knows how well currency values will hold up in the upcoming months.



Enough for now.



Regards



Rolly

Many US banks nervous over Brazil. Here is a list of US stocks at risk-- http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980918/11.html

Eldo
That's something I've been meaning to ask you--What/Where/Who is the scene?

HERE is that list http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980918/1l.html

Bill Maher...you get paid to be what...open invitation...invite me and any three other humans to your show which you do not own...watch your ratings soar as I humiliate you...223 Wall Street, 291 West Shore Road...Huntington, NY 11743...516-425-7185...

you and your mouth and the other three vs. little old me...investigate me...subjugate...me...spawned from the loins of Hell's Kitchen...be me pal and your version of America don't cut the mustard...just because you get paid does not mean you are worth it...

you are nothing more than a stain of the shame America is tolerating...

Heard on the street that "the big specs "
covered their positions on Monday & a certain
hedge fund has been buying Barrick with both hands..I am Thinking about doing same...any comments? Or confirmations???

Aurator -- C'mon man! This is the most meaningful and happening place on the net, bar NONE! There may be an imitation or two; there may be some that dabble with gold, but here, YOU are AT THE SCENE!

The Kitco Bar & Grill did indeed get real quiet all of a sudden. All of the patrons looked up from their tables for a few minutes before resuming their conversations.

Private Investor -- Wasn't from you barber, was it? Just askin'.

Thank you Sir for providing this forum...I be an American and I know the sound of my knuckles dragging the pavement is not pleasant...Anastasia's Ghost is my constant companion and we both raise a glass of the finest wine on the Eastern Seaboard to ya...yup...thanx...

Eldo
agree 100% with your sentiments on this, Bart's wondrous creation. I am unaccustomed to being at the scene myself, always feeling that I am fixed while fashion oscillates about me. You know, one year I am avant guard, the next I am fashionable, the following I am out of fashion again. I am talking, for example of my wardrobe, wearing checked shirts for most of my life every decade or so fashion catches up and then leaves me behind again. This is the reason I am unaccustomed to being at the scene. A little like Groucho's ( ? ) "I'd never belong to a club that would have me as a member", iconoclastic pacifist anarchists like yours truly are a trifle discombobulated by the scene. But, I'm happy to be here, and have been ever since my very first day on the www when I found this marvellous kitco.

Tip of my Akubra to you Bart.

I shall now rummage around my closet for Hawaiian shirts.

Auric -- The demise of the multi-national corporate profits really 'pains' me. They, their favored government, and their greed REALLY did it to themselves! Please, post something to stop me from laughing.

Aurator -- Doesn't seem to matter what one wears ( or NOT ) here, at THE scene. The place has 'fashion' enough. And you, and others here, just make it more so!

Goldman-Sachs is taking a hit in the shorts. Third quarter profits down, says watch out for fourth quarter. Could be bad news for their public debut. I keep thinking of Bre-X whenever G-S is mentioned...Here's a hankie...: ) ) http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/blk.html

Eldo

Ahhhh! Your last post gives a new meaning to these "naked shorts" discussions I see frequently posted here. {:- )

BTW How's the Peutz prediction this year? Will it improve with age? Like some of the Wine from the Victorian Goldfields I brought home with me? I think I can take it as established ( there being no gainsayers ) that apricots taste better in gold-bearing soils, I was wondering whether there is any suggestion that grapes are enhanced too?

What ye be...is my definition of Friends...the journey that are your words flow into pathetic minds like mine and enliven us to be more...better...THANX...

Auric -- I'm sure there are a LOT of mom&pop businesses out there that would 'enjoy' seeing even HALF the profits those pigs have been seeing! Let 'em eat 'cake'!

Aurator......where you been ?

Eldo Auric
For these large and charming brokerage houses, their fate will be decided, IMHO by derivative settlement risk. I mean, what if you are showing large paper profits but you can't settle your contracts because the other side is "where the woodbine twineth"?

Can anyone spell Herstatt Effect?
http://www.worldbank.org/fandd/english/1296/articles/051296.htm

Aurator -- 'Naked' shorts; HAR! I think Puetz has actually performed a bit of good service for his subscribers by potentially getting them out of the market in a timely manner. I think that He is be-fowled by the PPT. Thus, he is right, but he is wrong. So is everyone here in-so-far as gold goes. Beyond that, I make no judgement. I'll be day-trading and such instead. As much as I would like to see gold make a REAL comeback, I REALLY despise what the other consequences would be. Some people say GO-GOLD, ( And so do I, at heart ) and so it will at some point. Until then, I kind'a have to say ( in muted voice ) go ppt, for the fallout when, not if, that fails will be HEAVY!

For Compgeek ..
I too have great interest in commodity prices ..
Sudden doubling price of butter your area astounding.
First lemme ask you a question..
Have they been playing reruns of "Last Tango in Paris"
on the TeeVee recently???

For Gianni ..
CRB index will never die.. As of yesterday it closed
203.15. I download it dayly.

For All ..
Shell's recent forecast of doom seems to fit with what
Glenn foresees .. Id have preferred some rationale
for the 1000 tons of missing gold demand to a 1000 $
NO win challenge.. But Kitco has nothing to lose.
I think 225 is a possibility .. but I think 310 comes
first and then a wash out .. but 225 seems a bit
extreme.

lefty
I've been to Ballarat and Bendigo, I've been to Ararat and Castlemaine, I've been to the Victorian goldfields, I've been to some wineries I've seen ( casts of ) nuggets Like the Welcome Stranger and a hundred gold coins dating back as far as 2500 years, I've seen gold dredges and gold pours, I've talked to a dozen strangers about the gold rushes of Victoria, and I bought another swag of books.... ( but only a couple of coins myself )

I see you've been getting a little response to your Carolan analysis. Have a look back last night EST for Glenn's post. Glenn is one of your real actual gold traders down in the Puetz, sorry, I mean pits. We were around before he started working as a local, and were thrilled when we found out he scored his prized job. Glenn listens to his guts, and in this game, Glenn's guts are one of the best prognosticators. It also fits with my expected "Great Spike Down" that I am awaiting, like Godot.

Cheers mate, didn't see any of the NZ efforts at the C'wealth games, only aussie coverage....

tolerant -- And may black helicopters not blow shingles off your roof!

Hawaiian shirts and 'buttered' skirts.......I luv this place......gogold! 2-2-5!!!
NytolTeddO
awaaaay...zzzzzzzzzz
eautysleep



don't be painting kitco blue again...... @confusestheeeballs

Tolerant -- Actually, can't drink too much of those cuevo-based drinks; Tastes tooooo damnably good. Generally consign myself to brewski. 'Double Eagle Brown Ale' tonight. Cheers, and a toast to you!

I am long silver. Have been since 1972. Have many stories, too many I'd rather forget. Way back, it seemed those who were aware had an advantage. The gold semi backed monetary system was unravelling. Silver's price, like gold's, had been fixed for decades. The inevitable upward move in pm prices was slam dunk ( ? ) in my view then. I did pretty OK.

Since 1980, looking back, there has been a wholesale change. Who knew then the Dow at 800 would steadily advance to over 8,000. While gold dropped from $850 to $272. Silver from $52 to $3 plus. I am sure Fourier types, fundamentalists, cycle technicans, almost anybody who studied those markets technically did not foresee the incredible magnitude of the changes we have since seen.

I sold silver at $19.00 after seeing it above $50. Thot then it was the worst transaction of my life. And I sold because of margin restraints, not because of my brilliant market analysis.

Today I am very long silver. Warehouse stocks, supply / demand deficits, market sentiment, probable monetary turmoil, and an inexplicable urge, keep me so long. And it is so, so cheap!

What keeps me sane, tho not happy, is the charts. Silver hit a recent low in the $4.50's. That while world stock markets and commodities hit extreme lows, and foreign currencies reached peaks.

Silver has since advanced. The way I see it, a retracement to the $4.70 area would not be unexpected, prior to resuming an advance to $5.30, then $6.80.

Still think $20 silver reasonable. $70 not unreasonable.

The markets are dynamic, like life. Am sure I'll have a new forecast if this one fails.

And my money will be in the market, if there is any.

MAXIM. An established principle or proposition. A principle of law
universally admitted, as being just and consonant With reason.
2. Maxims in law are somewhat like axioms in geometry. 1 Bl. Com. 68. They are principles and authorities, and part of the general customs or common law of the land; and are of the same strength as acts of parliament, when the judges have determined what is a maxim; which belongs to the judges and not the jury. Terms do Ley; Doct. & Stud. Dial. 1, c. 8. Maxims of the law are holden for law, and all other cases that may be applied to them shall be taken for granted. 1 Inst. 11. 67; 4 Rep. See 1 Com. c. 68; Plowd. 27, b.
3. The application of the maxim to the case before the court, is
generally the only difficulty. The true method of making the application is to ascertain bow the maxim arose, and to consider whether the case to which it is applied is of the same character, or whether it is an exception to an apparently general rule.
4. The alterations of any of the maxims of the common law are
dangerous. 2 Inst. 210.

Statutum affirmativum non derogat communi legi. An affirmative statute does not take from the common law. Jenk. Cent. 24.

Sublata causa tollitur effectus. Remove the cause and the effect will cease. 2 Bl. Com. 203.

Sublata veneratione magistraiuum, respublica ruit. The commonwealth
perishes, if respect for magistrates be taken away.

Sublato fundamento cadit opus. Remove the foundation, the structure or work fall.

mozel -- Now all you have to do is show me a 'modern day' court that upholds the maxims of law, constitutional law, and Gods law ( not particularly in that order ) , to make the courts true. Know of any?

Question. Who is Australia's best netball player????
Answer. Maureen Boyle .......their umpire

( this should get a response from the land of Oz )

Seriously
Did you see anything that might convince me I am wrong in saying there is hardly any physical gold available ........

All .....conventional wisdom is that there is about 80,000 tonnes of gold above ground and half at least is owned by the Central Banks .... Work out for yourselves how few people can own $US1million of Gold at todays prices ....
It is my belief that the CB's will eventually revalue gold to whatever price they need to balance their liabilities.....the relatively few people that get rich by owning physical gold will not worry them .

KIP -- No problem. Just know your 'limitations' and have a number to exit at, should it come to that. And if it should, look at it as a lower entry price just around the corner. All 'investments' are tradeable!

Show me a man whose declarations, choices, and conduct are such that a court can give him the protection of law as opposed to the obligations of statute. Then, show me he has plead into the proper venue of the proper court according to proper procedure.

It is also a maxim of law, "Let he who judges, understand."

What if we traded with Gold and Silver coin we minted ourselves if we wished {and we had small ring-size magical devices to verify other people's money}.

No Fed, no Central Banks, no monetary policies, no paper "fiat" money,
no reserve requirements - banks loan what they have and no more.

Would such a system work? What would it's pros and cons be?

lefty
Mayhaps only 80,000 tonnes, but I've seen 130,000 tonnes as total gold mined.

I suspect the total amount is much more

mozel -- Surely, you must know by now, via the 'Klinton escapades', that 'law' is by poll; An absolute mockery of ANY semblance of ANYTHING! HAR!!! Personally, the next time I go into court over a 'traffic infraction', I hope to have a 'poll' to have it all 'judged' from! Yessir! Given the number of people who get speeding tickets, I'd be SURE to win!

I have NO complaints about ANYTHING you state here. The only complaint I have is in no real and positive way to execute them, for one is 'dependent' on THE courts to abide by the law and WAY TOO OFTEN, they do not! Got an answer to that?

these thoughts you send...were they the last to reach my ears...my life would be complete...filled be my thanks...yup...thanx...

mozel -- And let me add that ALL men cannot in anyway be their own 'lawyers'; to 'plead' their own cases, in most 'excellnt' ways, for in this time, that is essentially what it would take! Could you do it? How about one in a hundred others here?

There still ain't enough to go around

Goldbugs will win ....but only when the CB's win , they will always own most of the physical , that is not going to change .

Lower prices ......I love them .....I can buy more .
Didn't there used to be a hit song ... Lets get Physical , Phy sic al .

G'day aurator-- The woodbine metaphor is a
good one. It goes along with JTF's 23:45
post. Regarding 130,000 tonnes of Gold--
lefty kiwis point still stands. The big boys
would not care at all if holders of physical Gold got rich. That would be the least of their cares. Kitco is THE SCENE, eh! g'night

The Investment

( MNY - NYSE ) The Investors, each of whom is an affiliate of Goldman, Sachs & Co....

Certain Important Considerations

Policyholders should carefully consider the factors set forth below as well as other information
contained in this Policyholder Information Booklet Part 2:

Selected risk factors ( by me )
( iii ) the risk of losses on real estate and commercial loans,
( iv ) other risks relating to the Company's investment portfolio,
( x ) risks associated with certain economic and market factors,
( xiv ) risks with respect to claims - paying ability ratings and financial strength ratings,
( xv ) risks with respect to the year 2000 computer programming issues,

the list goes up to ( xx ) .

The company is "demutualizing" ( IPO ) and is asking if the policyholder prefers cash or stock.
( But even if you designate cash as your choice, you are not guaranteed to get it. : )

Detail section on Year 2000:
The year 2000 issue is the result of the widespread use of computer programsbeing written using two
digits ( rather than four ) to define the applicable year. Such programming was a common industry practice
designed to avoid the significant costs associated with additional mainframe capacity necessary to accommo-
date a four digit year field. As a result, any of the Company's computer systems that have time-sensitive
software may recognize a date using "00" as the year 1900 rather than the "Year 2000". This could result in a
major system failure or miscalculations. The Company has conducted a comprehensive review of its computer
systems to identify the systems that could be affected by the "Year 2000" issue and has developed and
implemented a plan to resolve the issue. The Company currently believes that, with modifications to existing
software and converting to new software, the the Year 2000 problem will not pose significant operational problems
fot the Company's computer systems. However, if such modifications and conversions are not completed on a
timely basis, the Year 2000 problem may have a material impact on the operations of the Company. Further,
even if the Company timely completes such modifications and conversions, there can be no assurance that the
failure of vendors of other third parties to solve the Year 2000 problem will not have a material impact on the
operations of the Company. The Company estimates the total cost to resolve its Year 2000 problem to be
approximately $18 million, of which $8.9 million has been incurred through June 30, 1998; however, there can
be no assurance that the actual cost incurred will not be materially higher than such estimate. See
"Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Year 2000"

Well, that filled me with confidence. ( read sarcasm. ) Pretty standard stuff.
Ciao. ( She says "cash until 2001" )

you'd think the Clintonistas have the last word in spin-doctoring.

hah! Malaysia's PM has trumped them all. having interviewed the people that his sacked deputy Anwar allegedly had immoral sex acts with ( several women and two prominent, 50-ish men ) , he now thinks he can convince the world that it just *so happens* that Anwar is found guilty of all these misdoings such that he should be sacked the day after the new economic policy of currency restrictions are announced.

"it's the economy, stupid!" - Anwar has always been ( in recent history ) a strong proponent of free market trading and of clamping down on cronyism, nepotism and corruption ( there are rumours about how the whole exercise is just a ploy to bail out Mahatdir's sons and friends, all carrying massive losses from the stock market losses so far ) .

It's all in the timing. The week after the central bank governor and his deputy resigns, Anwar is sacked. At any other time, with no financial crisis and a booming economy, Mahatdir's sacking of Anwar wouldn't have such a stench of dirty play around it and would have attracted much less attention.

Interestingly enough, the Malaysian central bank recently announced it was retracting some statements and policies ( on what makes a NPL - non-performing loan ) made a few days ago... they're getting careless.

As it was the economic boom that gave Mahatdir his power base, so shall the economy bring him down. Malaysia depends very much on exports and export growth. The obvious question is who is going to buy these exports? So what if Intel's biggest plant outside the US is in Penang? When the slump comes, are people going to buy computers or food? Japan is no longer capable of consuming Asia's growing export market. The US is the only "big 800 pound gorilla" consumer left. And it's running trade deficits at record levels. How long before either manufacturing in the US of A shuts down to foreign competition or the spectre of trade barriers are raised? How long will continued mega mergers keep big companies' profit line in the black ( even whilst hordes of people are made redundant by all these mergers... ) ?



hmm.... guess you could say the same for Clinton ( it's the economy, stupid ) . what will Bill's popularity poll be like when the Dow flirts around 6000?


hmmmmmmm............ anyone got a spare shot of tequila to spare?


Bank Negara retracts notice on NPLs:
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/3/focus11.html

Very bullish for gold .....
Cab drivers Know whats what......they drive and listen all day , and so do their mates .....they discuss all their fares with their workmates over a beer at the end of the day .
Taxi drivers have real knowledge .... i know my dad was one for 30 years.

I truly have the utmost respect for you...there are only one or two contrivial avenues of thought where you and I part company...

I Sir will go to any Court in the land and state my case and win...truth convicted wins every time...and of course you understand that I am not impervious...

THE TRUTH WINS...and I am the knuckle dragging NYer to prove it...not once in MY life have I treated anyone unfairly...not ONCE...

http://msnbc.com/news/198626.asp

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/bj6.html

( might be old hat news to some here, sorry )

"Let's form a mint and invite all Kitcoites to participate. Between us we could probably start with a horde of say, 500 ozs"
Aurator has talked about "minting his own money".
So has Chas, tolerant1, and the burrower who squirrels away beans & TP.

So we buy bullion on the open market, mint it into tradeable sizes, and use it to buy vodka and orange juice.

Even better, we sell it at a profit {seignorage} to other folks.
If enough gets sold to enough folks then demand pushes the POG up.
This alternative sure beats waiting for Gold to go up by itself.

According to some,silver is not only a commodity butalso a medicine. Search the net for "colloidal silver" where you will find an interesting
array of sites promoting silver as an antibacterial, water
"sterilant", etc., as well as instructions on how to make your
own colloidal silver...... At the prices they are asking ( $17.95 for
21/2 ounces of 5 ppm solution ) you couldcget your money back in no
time.............

You would be surprised what ordinary people can do who set their minds to it. According to Supreme Court Justice Berger, 90% of for hire lawyers are incompetent. So, the competition is not all that awesome for the competent lawyer-citizen.

What so many do not grasp is that your legal condition determines your protections and remedies. The law for an artificial person is not the same as for a freeman of flesh and blood. If you enroll your children in government schools, register for the franchise to vote, participate in social security, get a license to marry, or the like, you have volunteered into the status of artificial person. And not even the for hire lawyers actually know what the law is for artificial persons. It is so extensive and so complicated that they can only "find the law" for artificial persons after research.

Do you subscribe to the principles in the Declaration of Independence ? Wherein do you derive the right to have your rights "by attorney" ?

Can't imagine where we disagree. P&G back at you.

Ravenfire -- The US economy has been the only 800 pound gorilla consumer for years. It has been the ONLY one out there that has done much in the way of consumption at all. Now, with a 95% debt laden consumer, that 800 pound consumer is about to become the 200 pound consumer. Especially when the round of layoffs start to get into higher gear. They have already begun within the multi-nationals. The debt-dumption is almost here. The debt recycling circle-jerk&sniff continues....

The reason Greenspan isn't lowering rates is because he KNOWS that it won't help ANYBODY out there anymore. In the mean time, it allows the US to continue to be a consumer for a short while longer, as money pours in from out there, and commodity prices continue their downward trends. That is all there is. And now, even while the market shouts for lower rates, the FED, in all of its glorious omniscience, deems it improper to follow suit. The only reason at this time can only be the forgoing. Unless someone else out there can pick up MAJOR consumption, the US is ALL that is basically left, what there IS left of IT, for it sure ISN'T in the ultra low/depressed commodities industries! I believe the BUCK stops here!

mozel -- Yup. Once again, I have no arguments to what you state. Now, just simply provide a court that one would step into without submitting to 'their jurisdiction', for once you do, forget ALL your lawful arguments. I believe the Freemen experienced that BS, even WITHOUT submitting to their jurisdiction!

If the Corporate Gold Mine Operators weren't in cahoots with somebody, they would produce and sell ten grain gold coins. And multiples of 10 grains, too. I just wonder why Arden and Sheller ignore this topic of discussion.

Don't read more into the situation of the Montana Farmers than is there. Something convinced the juries. On the other hand, no one disputes that under the Federal Rules of Political Procedure the prosecution is the Judge's darling.

Truth! HAR! I believe that the government currently believes that 'truth' is emitted from the hot end of a barrel or spending life in prison for 'infractions'. Take your worse-than-military 'justice' system and jurisdictions and shove 'em where the light don't shine. I know damned well that the people at Lexington and Concord didn't hold court with King Georges' lawyers and judges on those days!

inflation, it's already too late to avoid deflation ( death of credit/debt paper ) .

mozel -- Now THERE is another thing. JURIES! You mean all these 'people' that know as much about the REAL law as your 90% of lawyers? Yea, THEY can REALLY do a job on you! Just follow the judges instructions and convict the poor bastards. HAR! And you are willing to stand in front of that train? Hey, I like the 'mate' that I have!

Sir...respect...I know I am a young buck rubbing antlers on the bark...within the clasp that is your wisdom...are pocket watches...when we are not so filled with ourselves we can weigh the time of others and learn...I think Will Durant and his Lovely Wife Ariel wrote the book...The Mansion's of Philosophy...if it is a truth...that there are many mansions within their Home...my toes have just breached the beginning that is you...your mind is a palace and I am respectfilled...yup...not so full of vinegar that I don't know my place...

G'day to all the other Anzac's lurking at this time. Note Aussie Gold at 6:30 eastern. US$287.50 @ 0.5760 gives A$499. DANGER : watch for lots of spot gold SELLING by bullion banks. Credit lines may be made available to second level producers AFTER they have sold production forward basis A$500 spot . Happy Trading All ! John_C@Sunny_Brisbane

I wonder what percentage of the 8-10 trillion dollars locked up in restricted Japanese Savings and scheduled to be released in Big Bang 2, will find their way to foreign shores?

I suspect that this money belongs to the average Japanese citizen, that part of a strict closed society ( not of the globalistic Japanese Industial segment ) . They may not like the idea of their money being subject to the control of rules they have no control over.
Even if a sum contemplats leaving, the decision maker would have to determine the prospects of currencies that may be severely overvalued against the yen or the prospects of relativelly high stock markets in Europe and North America.

While only a small percentage of $10 trillion would have a major impact on foreign markets the risk of losing may outweigh the potential for gains.

Also it seems that the current low rates in Japan definately coupled with global currency problems gives the average Japanese the incentative to look at gold.

VICTORIA...........

They are not "real" goldfields.....

You should come to the EASTERN GOLDFIELDS, and seee the real thing....

Och aye the no...............

Jack -- Oh, I don't know. Consider you had money sitting in the bank earning anything while the economy was contracting and prices for everything was falling. Also consider that you hadn't bought much of anything for QUITE sometime. Perhaps it might be time to take a small portion of those relatively 'expanded' savings and SPEND it! That is, if it isn't all locked up in some 401K/IRA look-a-like BS plan. And if it is, it is unlikely that 'foreign exploits' with it are too likely anyway.

Hagman
Aye, next time it shall be "Go East! Young Man."

Gonna go watch a movie on the back-side of my eyelids for awhile. Goodnight all...

G'Day,

I thought a "new" change of name may be appropriate......

The EASTERN GOLDFIELDS in Western Australia are, after all, full of Archaean GREENSTONE BELTS.......

For those who may be interested,:

"Greenstone Belts"

ed by M De Wit and L Ashwal

ISBN0 19 854056 6

809 pages.

"Greenstone belts provide a window into a distant past...."

They are one of the primary sources of GOLD in the world, and will remain so long after man has gone.......... or indeed BC is OUT of the Presidency......

Now for ALL our North American viewers, a question......

WHAT IS A GREENSTONE BELT ?

WHAT IS A DOLLAR

Aye,

Haggis

Question.... where did New Zealand come in the TRI_NATIONS rugby...

Lost your way ???

Interesting concept, Japan starting a global consumer boom. This is a definate possibilty, if the yen stabilizes at around 100 to 110. Hope that the metals are part of their purchaes.

Do New Zealands fast growing trees such as Radiata Pine, have the same structural properties as the slower growing NA species as Douglas Fir or Southern Yellow Pine?

Jack
I'm Noooo expert, most pinus radiata is rendered into wood pulp for paper and wood derived products. Perhaps we should be asking people who really know...

A fast growing species with relatively good structural qualities used as timbers could have a major impact due to their rustic asthetic value on further uses of wood in residential construction.

To All
Just got an e-mailed question on the racial make up
of RSA..
Overall its about 75 % Black 13 % White 9 % Afriikaans
speaking Coloreds and 3 % Indians ..
In the Cape .. its about 40 % coloreds 25 % white
35 % Black .. rough numbers ..

AIDS may change demographics ..just saw estimate that
Black life expectancy drops to below 40 by 2005. That
plus migrating Whites should reduce population to
barely enough to field a chapionship cricket and rugby
team..some guys will have to double up.

On a weight basis Afrikaaners outnumber everbody ..

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/cy.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/biz.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/1r.html

Jse-gold trading down 33 after big hammering yesterday.
Thing is .. Rand has firmed to 5.91 !! .. Somebody
buying rands .. If I ask WHO .. answer is importers
repatriating funds which totally nonsensical..
Believe local pussycat fund managers may have thier
gold market stolen from them by greedy Yankee traders.
This has happened before .. In 1993 run up, locals
never got a look in as Yanks bought all script ..
Sometime firming rand is prelude to firming RSA golds.
.. we will see what we will see..

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/bkh.html

Silver stocks at the COMEX are at all time lows. The question none of has the answer for is how much silver lies hidden oversees. Are stocks being moved to be covered in secrecy - this to me is the story behind the fall in stocks and the fall ( or if you prefer the steadiness ) in silver prices. As Rody has pointed out the movement in the lease rate will tell us if the shortage is real or when it becomes real. So far the short sellers are not moved to cover in mass. These supposedly sophisticated players can see as well as you and I that there are only supplies at Comex equal to 15,000 contracts ( 1/5th of the total open interst. WHY are the supposedly huge short holders not moved to cover??? Because till now they can borrow more to replace their loans??? Or and, they can borrow from the substantial hordes in Europe which lie outside our naive
vision.???? What other explanation is there????

for donald ..
RYO shareholders are a special
breed .. company has high costs
.. mountain of debt .. not much
gold .. AND if RYO ever does make
any money their greedbag management
will figure some way to take it
away from the shareholders.
..

To the Kalgoorlie digger, I'm hanging out for a clue to your 5c stock you mentioned late last night. The_Punter@Pitlochry

Spot On.

I am quite happy to see gold reach $A 500 but I fear that you are right. This will only bring the Aussie gold producers out with more sales driving the price down yet again.

How I would love to see gold pierce $A500 and $US300.

We can only hope.

Live Long and Prosper.

globex up, dollar up,looks like a good day on the street, right? Of course all the other portents are still in the backgtound.

sputterings from the fire in the hole:

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980922/earns_gold_2.html

what's good for General Bullmoose:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/bk1.html

retailer's assuming it's just temporary:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980922/bhq.html

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-22%20XAU%20-%20daily.gif

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-22%20XAU%202.gif

Take care....according to Jeil's projections we are on the cusp of a big decline.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/9823/updates/djia9-23.htm

Back from a great fishing trip. Caught a coupla salmon and a hangover or two.

Good to see everyone's finally gotten tired of talking about Clinton. The stock market is holding up well in the face of all the bad earnings news. Seems to have already discounted all the lowered earnings reports that have come out the past few days. Wonder what unexpected event it has not yet discounted? I believe it has not yet discounted for the fact that these earnings reports are not isolated to a few manufacturing, banking, and financial services companies, are not temporary, that the happy Q4 98 and Q1 99 numbers the street's getting with the Q3 bad news are bogus.

Once it sets in that the earnings trend is down longterm, the market will head down on its next leg, with additional fuel from tax-loss sales and bummed out Joe Sixpacks. My guess is that by the end of Oct. we'll see another 1000 pts down on the DOW. It it breaks below the level where a significant number of mutual fund investors lose money over the 1997 - 1998 period, you'll see another leg down and maybe panic among the pros.

-EJ

Re your 03:56, Dear Brother Mozel - thank you so much for thinking of Arden and myself. It is heartening to be thought of so readily when the subject turns to gold...and especially gold as money. I assure you we are not ignoring this option. We have been very much interested in minting gold coins for various applications and I am presently lending my humble design and marketing abilities to several Kitcoites who are themselves valiantly developing a response to the potential need for small gold coins in the coming years. The concept is currently embryonic - but it IS pregnant. Even at present there appears to be a strong demand for small coins which is not being filled. Arden and I are very much aware, as well, that inasmuch as we are presently opening and starting to work our placer mine in Alaska, another potential product Clarity Resources may be able to offer investors and goldbugs down the road is pure gold nuggets "direct from the earth to you." I would be interested to know how many Kitcoites would add an ounce or three of such "natural" product to their hoard. So be assured we have been thinking of ALL possibilities in this regard. It's just that the financing environment for gold and silver mining has been so horrendous of late that it is a constant and herculean struggle to come up with what we need just to get the gravel through the sluices up in our Myrtle Creek Mine in Coldfoot. We have claims on 11 miles of creekbed - so much gold yet so few investors willing to see the light. Thanks again for your confidence. We hope someday we will justify your thinking of us in this context.

My father bought an old subsistance farm here in eastern Ontario in 1965.It has plenty of waterfront. The gov. taxed him as recreational property. Very expensive. A program came out to create tree farms. This reduced the tax he had to pay.He grew Hybrid poplars ( 5 varieties ) red pine and Japanese Larch. These trees are 20 years old and were prime when the ice storm hit here in January last. The trees have been shattered. The block planting created a dominoe effect where two or three trees started to fall and then the rest went. His property ( 200acres ) is a mess. I salvaged about 100 of the red pine and cut them into 6in by 6 in. timbers. I will build a heated workshop out of them this fall for about 5,000 CDN.
Trees are great but they require a lot of work and planting all the same variety leaves you prone to damage when MOTHER NATURE rears her ugly head. In this part of the country we always claimed we could not be struck by natural disaster.

TODAY!

Are some species of trees better suited to a heated workshop than others? i.e. - warmer?

Gold: Moving Lower

Silver: Very Bearish

Platinum: Caution

Palladium: Caution Advised

http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

Click on Global Market Watch ( left Menu ) then #4. ( right menu ) .

the denser ones.So white pine red pine...poplar if it is well protected from water damage.. must be bone dry... never hard woods..oak. The old timers here only used eastern white cedar and many of the cabins are here two hundred years later.

http://members.home.net/inpath/gold.gif

http://members.home.net/inpath/gold-cl.gif

Not go gold, rather go UP gold.

Looking at the weekly chart, gold appears to the wishful thinker ( me ) that it has made a second bottom and a spike of sorts to boot, and could be readly to establish the foundation of a new upmove. My personal interpretation of the XAU is that if gold plunges once more from here it will not go significantly lower than established lows. Perhaps by a few dollars. The lows in the spike down itself seem to have overshot a simple support line underpinning this decline, and that usually indicates a final bottoming hysteria. On the other hand, a rally has room to go to around 100 before channel resistance appears. Be that as it may, what bothers me most is the fact that call options continue to be running so overwhelmingly more than puts in both gold and silver. This, to me, is one of the most disturbing aspects of the gold situation at present. Perhaps it will take one more probe of the "bottom" of this market to reverse this trend, or maybe this situation in options is a hedge for short futures positions, which must be enormous, and therefore very bullish. Or maybe...well, you get the picture.

http://www.chartingyourfutures.com/dailyworksheets.htm

Mike Sheller...without doubt...You SIR are the Prince...everything about you makes me look up and when I do...all that is the good Grace of God teaches me to realize how thin my sandals are...I am looking into the mirror of my soul...I now seek a cobbler...ten inch knuckels watch over ya...yup...uh huh...heavy handed on the Island that is Long...

Prayers and whatever Reify and Crystal Ball said...yup...one heck of a guy you be...

Reverse and or sell the Dec SnP or E-mini this morning between 1070 -1075. Dec Silver buy 4.85 with a 4.80 stop.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/d4.html

APH and Mike - Everytime either one of you post I, for one, sit up and take notice. Keep up the great work and informative posts!

Mike - Your 7:42 reminds me very much of the sentiments I expressed last Thursday morning in part which read: "Date: Thu Sep 17 1998 08:22

Mooney* ( Lean Hogs, Sugar, Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, Oil, Silver, Gold and Real

Estate for '99! ) ID#350194:

Copyright  1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

PMF - I was just about to post that RJ's 1:43 seems to me to be VERY significant.

We've heard the rumours of shortages developing around the world here and there

for the last year, but all these major mints having a shortage all at once... and

remember we are coming into peak demand for jewellery season as well!

Also significant is the recent CRB chart breaking out of its downward sloping resistance..."

"... I am now reliably convinced according to Mooney's PMME-BTCM analysis that the

final bottom has been put place for gold bullion. ( E.+ O. Not withstanding ) .

***The recent 'spike-low was made in about 7 trading days.***

Compare that to the spike last DEC-JAN which took about 22 trading days to form.

This was, mind-you a lower low which broke what would have been an absolutely

beautiful double bottom on the charts, however it was so close ( to that previous

bottom ) and the spike so sharp and perfect that on the long term charts it is still

looking pretty. Even if we remain range bound ( as RJ believes possible ) for the rest

of this year we are forming one heck of a grand base for the coming major bull. I

look for Silver and Gold to remain flacid for a little while longer with Silver signalling

the next upmove in earnest."

Mike - Never forget to apply Mooney's patented MME-BTCM analysis to your reasoning!

BTW - I believe that Gold call options are practically ALWAYS in the majority when compared to puts. I may be wrong on this as I am not providing exact numbers. Anyone?

More strange movements afoot this morning. Some very bullish gold/silver signals. This despite increasingly bearish sentiments expressed by analysts and chartists.

Sometimes one just gets the feeling that many of the analysts work for guys with big short postions.

Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 22:06
Caper ( Glenn @ Hit & Run ) ID#300202:
Plse provide rationale

A- I've provided rational before many times.
-----------------------------------
Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 22:22
Lurker 777 ( Glenn the AU man ) ID#317247:
What are your current positions? I have some Dec 99 290 Puts and was waiting until $300 spot to buy more
Puts. The Dec 99 290 are $1,200 each and a little rich for my blood. What do you think about some Feb 99 260 at $130 each? $225 by when?

A- Feb 260 puts would be good. I like the 270 strike personnally. Mix and match.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 22:38
CC ( Glenn ) ID#334219:
And what is your time frame for this move to $225 ?

A- Before March 99! But the low that happens then migght not be THE low. That low could also be broken at some point. This bear could have one more year!
-----------------------------------------------------
Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 23:00
John B ( Glenn ) ID#17470:
$225 gold seems extreme. What rationale leads you to that conclusion. A very very deep worldwide deflationary recession?

A- A very deep world wide deflationary recession, which is what we are already in. THe fact that according to CRU precious metals monitor published out of london, that supply is overwhelming demand right now and the fact that gold is more of a safe guard against the Bond market then the stock market and the bond market is hitting all time highs!

Gollum:
I enjoy the diversity of your posts each day. You offer comments on both sides of the fence regarding gold.

Highhopes

Thank you. Right now the fence seems a bit thicker than usual. Makes it harder to decide which way to jump, but easier to sit on top.

relative to the US dollar today. DM or Pound 1.68 = $1.00.
That's for the first time I have observed this.
Usually the pound moves with the dollar in the opposite direction of the rest of the Euro-block currencies. Recently, the pound always lost more than the dollar, relative to the Euro-block currencies. But dollar and pound almost always moved in the same direction.
The Euro-block currencies seem strongly tied together and always move into the same direction, individually with a tiny degree different.
The Finn-Mark seemed one of the strongest. The Swiss F always joins the Euro-block.

I like glenn's view that gold is a hedge againt the bond market. The obvious question, then, is what could negatively affect the bond market...any takers?

Please, don't tell me rising interest rates...would would cause rates to rise...defending the US$?

Food for thought...off to work. Good trading folks.

Tom

but other indicators are mixed. Looks like the market will open up, but perhaps with quickly fading enthusiasm.

Bonds and the dollar have become inextricably interwoven. When the dollar starts to go, the flight from bonds will be earthshaking.

Your posting of $225 yesterday prompted me to retrieve my copy of Prechter's 'The Crest of the Tidal Wave' and go back over Chapter 17 on gold. Your outlook certainly falls into the scenarios he outlines. Do you have an opinion on this work? If so, where do you think we are in the Elliott Wave pattern?

Prechter outlines two ideal scenarios in an A-B-C decline from the 95-96 high:

First scenario: Wave A at $182, B at $275-295, C at $112.

Second scenario: Wave A at $222-270, B at $374-422, C at $112-160

Prechter also forecasted the decline to last 2 or 3 years, which would put us in the target area for his bottom projection. However, in his other work he has been a little bit ahead of the game so this could be early for the decline to end.

Comments?

for T Young
Why .. Inflation .. my good man ..

Major world deflationary crisis would ensue. More currencies would collapse. Capital assets around the world would be further devalued causing big bank failures. Freemasons will never allow this to happen.
You read it here.............

bugged Monica's appartement since a long time and they had collected tapes of sexually involved phone conversations. They second guess that Israel's current government blackmailed the Clinton administration with these tapes.
The Washington Post reports today that Linda Tripp acted like a trained agent wearing microphones under her cloths when she met with Monica Lewinsky as long as the Bill-Monica relationship was still ongoing and the "job-deal" wasn't worked out. Tripp also encouraged Lewinsky to keep the dress with the sperms as hard evidence.
Isn't this amazing? Evidence which is usually used in rape cases was in this case, in a pre-planned concept used to trigger Clinto's "confession". After the hard DNA proof he had to admit. And only then.
That shows that everything in this case was pre-designed.
I'm only amazed that Monica gets away with an innocent image in this Washington Post article, in spite of following Tripp's advice to keep the hard evidence locked away. Doesn't this show quite clearly that Monica also acted like an agent?

I'm writing this because I'm convinced that high level think tanks and s3ecret service agencies knew every little detail about Clinton's character and his sex life in advance. They move their pawns.
It also shows how limitless stupid Clinton is that he doesn't know about these simple traps and plunges into them like an idiot.

Makes me think there is an exhibitionistic component about his sexual behavior. Maybe at a certain level he wants these things to become known so the information comes to Hillary's attention. Maybe that's part of the message game in this very special marriage.

Friend of Another ( 9/23/98; 07:06:03 Msg ID:102 )
The direction of gold.
TO ALL: I think we now are now in one of the best periods for gold ever to occur. You have every hedge fund, trader and producer ready to short/sell into any major rise in the dollar price of gold. They will be wrong, this time! During the lows a short time ago, major CBs were buying gold in small amounts through the BIS. All of the small sales announced by other CBs were taken in with ease. The BIS did not make a public announcement that these buying banks were behind this coordinated effort driven from the BIS. Many years ago this would have been the case. This time they will not want to start a panic with the Euro about to commence operation. Am I correct with this view? We should see each pullback in gold stop at a higher price. These pullbacks will be used by major buyers to complete their acquisitions of gold and hence the distribution of dollars. Well before the end of the year, many will look back and understand that we will never see these dollar prices for gold again, ever! The same forces that confounded the efforts of gold theorists to explain the drop in price, will now confound them again. The next 18 months or less will give rise to this metal in a way that will have gold bull analysis calling for a large pullback. It will not happen. We will run through $400, $600, $800, $1,000 and on. Each time a pullback occurs, massive buying will ensue. For guidance, look to the US balance of trade deficit and a fast changing negative exchange rate for the dollar to chart the course. Also, as this unfolds, look for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates solely for the purpose of defending the currency. A currency with a future that no longer holds resurve status. High rates will be of little help, much in the same way that Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Korea and others have raised rates to no avail. Some would call this an extreme view? From what I understand of this era, it is an extreme view for extreme times. Perhaps what Another has told me is true, many are to comfortable with familiar habits of finance to understand the potential for change. We shall see! Thanks

I'm not in the camp of those predicting $225 gold, but there are many who think that the deflationary trend, once set in motion, cannot be stopped until it runs its course. If this is so, do not be surprised if this happens to gold. I think you give the Freemasons a little too much credit for their powers of control.

From Kaplan yesterday. I suspect Glenn is one of the gold gurus on the payroll of the short sellers. RJ thinks the lows will hold and RJ has A MUCH BETER RECORD than Glenn.


WHY BEARISH?--Most gold mining analysts have increased their bearishness over the past several weeks, which is contrary to
the usual behavior after a modest rally. One likely explanation is that these analysts are being compensated primarily by short
sellers, and they want to give their clients a final window of opportunity to cover their short positions before the heart of the
rally takes place. Especially with the stock market looking a lot more precarious than it did just three months ago, it is certain
that even the most determined gold bears have gotten the news that investors who previously had no interest in alternative
investments have been making more frequent and serious inquiries about precious metals.

"...Many are too comfortable with familiar habits of finance to understand the potential for change..."

Dude, you've hit the nail right on the head. History will record similiar sentiment. Well said!

: )
Gregg

"Any further bail-out signals would appear to me to be rather counter-productive,'' Tietmeyer said earlier this month, adding that there should be a discussion over the conditionality surrounding IMF lending.

Camdessus -Buba should be less quick to attack IMF
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0923/f_rt_0923_21.sml


Well,
I was at the track this weekend: and what dog showed up?
*EJ's Tortfeasor* - How did it finish you ask.
Fifth --Of course I bet on it ; (

THE SCARE 
( NEM ) Sep 23, 09:12

The CHINA ECONOMIC TIMES said today that CHINA should increase GOLD reserves from 397 t to 1000 - 1500 t as a protection against financial risk.
This is the GOLD news of the year .
It is the reason why despite a higher $/YEN and $/DM the POG is going up.
Does anybody believe that in CHINA a newspaper would print that kind of news without ministry level approval ?
NO
YOU should have heard the response of traders stating that CHINA should hold YEN rather than GOLD as JAPAN is a major trading partner!!!!!
We also had the joke of the year.

Market opened sharply up, even got up to 8000 for a moment, but has slacked off now. Metals up.

"gold is more of a safe guard against the Bond market then the stock market and the bond market is hitting all time highs! "

Gold IS more of a safeguard against bonds; but treasuries are HARDLY hitting all time highs with a yield of 5%. Yes, since USG started issuing 30 yr bonds in 1976 ( ? ) . But before 1960, long term bonds were routinely yielding 3% and less. During the Great Depression, LESS THAN 1 % !!!

I can't say it often enough-- this is a bond rally in a LONG TERM BEAR!!
How could it be otherwise, when the USG continually debases the $US, the currency in which these bonds are repaid.

The other side of the coin ( so to speak ) should be equally obvious-- this is a 19 year correction in a super GOLD BULL!! I am perfectly convinced that with the continuing debasement of the $US, the price of gold has nowhere to go but UP in the long term !!

So many of us are shifting around the tea leaves and entrails, looking for meaning in the daily or hourly movements in gold's price. It is pointless. One must have a relatively long horizon. It may be several years before gold will shine again as an investment. Meanwhile, enjoy the low prices, and accumulate all the gold/silver/platinum, and mining shares you can.

That which is pointless for a long term holder is three eternities for a day trader.

The heavyweights pull the strings. The lightweights sing and dance onstage.

I agree with you. I understand you. I am a compulsive gambler trying to change my ways. I pray for your success and happiness. Namaste'


Wednesday, September 23, 1998 Going for the Gold
Times Staff Writer With uncertainty in financial markets worldwide, many investors are turning to the perceived safety of tangible gold coins.
The U.S. Mint sold 255,000 ounces of gold bullion in August--nearly 10 times the usual monthly rate. And the brisk pace has continued this month, with 197,000 ounces sold through Monday.
Year-to-date, the mint has sold 1.13 million ounces, up 150% from this time last year. With gold prices near 19-year lows, sales are running at the fastest clip since the American Eagle bullion coin program was launched in 1987.
But the kind of investors who buy gold coins might not reflect a broad shift toward the precious metal.
For example, mutual fund investors appear to be staying away from the sector. Research firm Lipper Analytical Services reported a net outflow of $69.3 million from gold-oriented funds in August.
Copyright 1998 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

They're having problems keeping the lid on. Spot silver 4.910, December silver can hardly stay ahead.

Sheller liked my humble limerick so I thought I'd repost it this morning!


A musician by Capitol Hill
played the Sax but it sounded quite shrill
The Sax player forlorn
would be shortly reborn
A Har-MONICA player named Bill

Go to a park. Sit and watch. Breath the air. Peace will come.

What do you know about SGOLY ( St Helena Gold ) ? I've tried to get info off the web and so far have been unsuccessful. Are they currently paying a 18% +/- dividend and how long and how safe is this dividend? Any others that pay a dividend that would be safer and better?

Any analysis or thoughts on these matters would be greatly appreciated. I'm considering putting 15% of my sister in laws funds in a gold equity that pays dividends. She is 89 yrs young going on 98 and could use a dividend if it is relatively safe. I know, "IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT IS'NT".

Best regards,

Pete

There's a lot of big money tied up in treasuries. Very big money. From the yen carry trade, from the gold carry trade, from international flight money. Without a doubt, that monstrous wad will eventually unwind.

Now, you or I do not generally have to worry about an exit or entrance strategy when we take a position, but the really big time players do.

One can presume that those guys are intelligent enough to recognize the problem, and are either planned or have already planned their way out.

So how does one get out? Think about it.

Pete - I don't have any current information on SGOLY, but

If you only want dividends and do not care about what happens to the price of the stock, look at symbol TRU and visit their website at

http://www.torchroyalty.com

This is a royalty trust on gas & oil production in the LA-TX area, and pays well in excess of 20% dividend, part of which is tax sheltered. It is a depleting asset, so you should consider the life of the reserves in your assessment of the income stream.

Butter did not double, exactly, went from USD 2.85 to USD 4.89 in one week. Don't own TV. Didn't see "Last Tango". If butter is up, are guns down? :- )

Looking at the DOW you would think not much is happening, but they're having hand to hand combat in the metal market pits this morning!!!

You looks at the stochastics, you reads what Mike Sheller says, in
his wisdom, you also listens to our old faithful GLENN, who is right
there in the pits, and then lo and behold an old voice from the past
"ANOTHER", who's been wrong more than right, comes along and speaks
with authority.
WOW, what a dilemma?!
Being an old bug, and one that's a stundent of long term charts and
patterns, and rythms, BUT a contrarian from childhood, and I have to
say to myself, it's too obvious. We can't all see the same thing and
agree. Sooooooo this time I think Another, babe, may just be on the mark!

Puetz...I see that world markets are awash in black ink overnight, and that Mexico, U.S., et al are taking off with genuine strength this morning.

My question of course...since Realistic seems to be missing.... where are our 4000 to 5000 point meltdown, blood in the streets, all out crash scenario losses? Those massive margin calls? Widespread panic moon induced? You keep claiming your predictions are hitting spot on in "evidence" that verified your Eclipse theory...am I missing something?

Do we have to wait for Halloween now for the anticipated crash?

I did not read Prechter's book. I am aware of it and have no comments on him.
If Bonds are in a bear market rally with yeild's headed under 5% temporarily then gold is in a correction within a major bull market it's just that this correction will take us to $225 before it's over.

As far as RJ having a better record then me BULLSH*T!

Bet me $1000 then. Put your money where your mouth is Old Gold! Spot Gold is at $289.0 right now. I say it goes down $40 before it goes up $40. The looser donates $1000 to Bart @KITCO to help pay for this service!

Why do i get the feeling the King's rook pawn is about to be promoted to a queen?

World-wide Economic Collapse Under Insoluble Debt?

A people's ultimate primer to the nature of "central banking" -- and the times which are upon us.


MATHEMATIC PROOF: Federal Reserve CAUSED The Great Depression

"It was mathematically impossible for the market not to crash."

Understand the present from the workings responsible for the past.

Michael Montagne on Hon. Congressman Louis T. McFadden and Congressional Record of June 10, 1932 -- pages 12595-12603.

PEOPLE For Perfect Economy
Grass roots effort to establish perfect economy and effectual democracy.

The events herein addressed truly can be considered as merely replicated models of 'financial' practice under such systems. Though perhaps astonishing to the general public, the acts documented in the following excerpts of our Congressional Record are little different in scope or degree than ongoing acts of today. We note these acts are completely beyond the scope of public mandate.

The Republicans, dedicated to serving and grafting themselves to wealthy capitalists, proposed a most incredible solution: concentration of these same banker's powers under one central bank. Understandably, the Democrats were elected to power in 1912 on a platform explicitly declaring opposition to the establishment of a central bank.

Despite the explicit platform of the Democrats for 1912, the 'Federal Reserve' nevertheless -- virtually the same Aldrich/Republican entity re-dressed under a different and very misleading name -- was created only a year later, in 1913, as an energetic project under Democrat President Woodrow Wilson.


The multiplication of debt is irreversible in any such system. The ultimate cost of debt multiplying perpetually and irreversibly in proportion to commerce is unequivocal: Ultimately, the costs of irreversibly-multiplied debt render complete insolubility. The very concept of such a system is in complete conflict with the inherent interests of any intelligent society.

Nevertheless, the previous system had suffered difficulties also induced artificially by banking practice: It was the preceding twenty years of artificially induced banking crises itself which introduced the need for reform.

Congressman Louis T. McFadden served twelve years as Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency. On June 10, 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression, he addressed the House of Representatives, asking for investigations of criminal conspiracy to establish the privately owned 'Federal Reserve System'. He requested impeachment of Federal officers who had violated oaths of office both in establishing and directing the Federal Reserve -- imploring Congress to investigate an incredible scope of overt criminal acts by the Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks. He refers to crimes including Broad, ongoing subversion of democracy; Conspiracy to remove the gold behind our currency to the foreign principals of these banks; the Financing of foreign military expansion in Germany and Japan with the very same gold removed from our public reserves [evidently, in preparation for WWII]; And conspiracy to bring about the Depression itself.

Two attempts were made to take Mr. McFadden's life, including an attempted poisoning at a Congressional cafeteria: He passed away in 1935, under circumstances which many still contend are suspicious. With his passing, 'somehow', so too passed serious opposition to the Federal Reserve.

He also identifies facts he could not have known the consequences of until later: The 'Federal' 'Reserve' made far-more-capable foes of our eventual enemies in the second World War -- financing the German military buildup under Hitler, and paying the debts of the Japanese military to German munitions makers with the very reserve of gold it stole from the American People. It seems inconceivable this same institution could be innocent of vastly compounding the casualties of that war -- if it did not itself make that war possible. Surely if any of these allegations are true, this private conspiracy fully deserves Mr. McFadden's characterization, as evil.


Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.

Mr. Chairman, last December I introduced a resolution here asking for an examination and an audit of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks, and all related matters. [This audit has never been performed.]

IF the House sees fit to make such an investigation, the people of the United States will obtain information of great value. This is a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. Consequently, nothing should be concealed from the people.


The man who knows or suspects that a crime has been committed, and who conceals or covers up that crime, is an accessory to it. Mr. Speaker, it is a monstrous thing for this great Nation of people to have its destinies presided over by a traitorous government board acting in secret concert with international usurers.


Every effort has been made by the Federal Reserve Board to conceal its power. But the truth is that the Federal Reserve Board has usurped the government of the United States.


It controls everything here; and it controls our foreign relations. It makes or breaks governments at will.

No man, and no body of men, is more entrenched in power than the arrogant credit monopoly which operates the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks.

http://www.oregontrail.net/~mmontagne/mcfadden.html

ate: Sun Sep 20 1998 11:39
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The stock market crash is developing slightly slower than I
anticipated. Nonetheless, it is progressing. And a massive
collapse to DJIA 3000 isn't too far away.

The evidence:

1 ) Virtually every European and Asian market peaked on the
first trading day after the Lunar Eclipse on Sept. 6. That
validates the eclipse theory -- that most crashes start
within days of a Lunar Eclipse.

2 ) Most European and Asian market have dropped below their
early September mini-panic lows. This is the final confirmation
that their topping pattern is conplete. Those markets are
now in a free-fall. For example, the large British and
German markets have declined to new lows. The Japanese
market has registered a new 12 year low.

3 ) The US stock market is the lagared. It will eventually
succumb to the pressure in the global market. Option
expirations on Friday ( and last ) week usually has a positive
effect on stocks. The positive effect marginally outweighed
the negative effect from global markets. But watch out
below this week.

4 ) The global banking system ( as reported in Barron's ) lost
14% of their equity base in the past few weeks. There is
evidence that the losses are actually greater, but that many
banks are either covering up the losses, or have not yet
reported them. This has the same effect as massive Federal
Reserve credit tightening. New loans will be hard to come
by -- simply because banks don't have the capital to make them.

DJIA 3000 is coming. Buy S&P put options to profit from
this coming development.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Check out Battle Mountain Gold $3.25 Convertible Preferred, NYSE BMG-. I have been recommending it to my income-oriented friends. It was down as low as 36 recently, yielding about 9%. Now at 43, the yoeld is still attractive, and since it is a convertible, it also has a gold kicker if/when the sh!t h!ts the fan.

Thanks for the great articles posted here I greatly appreciate them...but the one from Princeton Econ. is one which I continue to disagree with, as in previous posts. It was looked at in a typical "Economists" way, from someone who has little knowledge of this group of commodities IMHO. When you consider the blatant manipulation of these markets, and the extensive use within "derivatives", I can only view the forecast in just the opposite terms and PEI does....As the derivities unwind, so will the price of gold...watch instead for the panic to cover rather than the opportunity to short.

Gollum...in that article on the FED Reserve comments on the dollar...sure sounds like a cheerleading session to me...sounds like the FED ( private banks ) are starting to get worried that they are loosing control of the banking situation and once again want us lemmings to rush in and save them...as a patriotic sort of think...I think you should start up your airline again, but this time use it for bombing the FED and the IMF...

Another interesting article on Gold from "Hightower Reports" released early this morning:

"We were impressed with gold's ability to hold against the initial Forex action Tuesday but with more pressure on the Yen today and the ongoing fears regarding Latin economies gold has limited upside. There is fear that Brazil could sell some central bank gold if the IMF plan isn't large enough or other such help is delayed until as some G7 members put it, the situation requires it. As we said yesterday the market saw large volume and open interest increases on the run from 289 to 300 and that large amount of long interest is close to being fully under water, where will the stops be located? In a positive note, China called for its gold reserves to be increased by 1000 to 1500 tons ( figures that don't wash with the percentage breakdown ) so that gold makes up 6%-8% of its currency reserves. Depending on when that gold will be bought that should be very supportive as a mere doubling of reserves currently held would offset all the expected 2nd half central bank reserve sales! Currently China has only 397 tons of gold, is the world's third largest gold consumer, 5th largest producer & ranks 12th in gold reserves. Taking supply off Gold simply helps form a bottom we still need conditions that favor an investment for an uptrend."

The recovery in world markets is developing slightly slower than I anticipated. Yet 9000 DOW, and rebound in Asian and European markets is coming.

The evidence:

1 ) Virtually every European and Asian market showed major gains on the
first trading day after the Lunar Eclipse on Sept. 6. That totally
invalidates the eclipse theory Puetz had given us. That a big frop in the New Zealand shares on Tuesday Spet. 8, early AM, would quickly spread to all markets worldwide resulting in a total meltdown within 1 to 2 weeks. This on the heels of all of Puetz's OTHER failed Full Moon/Eclipse/Halloween et al crash predictions, has totally discredited the Eclipse / crash theory. In fact, markets have tended to do the precise opposite of what Puetz has predicted, with absolutely alarming consistency.

2 ) Most European and Asian market have dropped below their early September mini-panic lows, and are now rising again. This is the final confirmation that their topping pattern was a false signal and that no free-fall will occur. For example, the large Japanese market is moving up strongly off it's banking crises lows.

3 ) The US stock market is the shining gem in all this world turmoil. It will NOT succumb to the pressure in the global market. Option expirations on Friday ( and last ) week usually has a positive
effect on stocks. The positive effect marginally outweighed the negative effect from global markets. But look how strongly the market is moving up this week in the face of global pressures and domestic scandals.Watch out above!

4 ) The global banking system ( as reported in Barron's ) lost 14% of their equity base in the past few weeks. Luckily, this has shaken out the weak sisters, a healthy development in the long run.

Watch this U.S. market as it demonstrates that the strength of the economy will make it virtually impossible that an all out crash occurs at this time.

Do NOT buy PUTS on the S&P unless it's money you can afford... make that money you INTEND to lose......

for Pete and elderly relatives ..
I will repost what I said to Erle
when he said I "touted" the stock.
I have bought as much of Sgoly
as I could get below 2.75 and before
it went ex div. I dont care who
else buys it .. not a bit .. I
bought it because their resources
cost less than a buck and a half
an oz .. and they make a lot of
dough with the rand at 5.3 so will
make MORE with the rand at 6.

Nothing complicated ..

prior comments follow ..

"For Erle
Disney touts ???? Really ??? Big time volume ???
Look sourpuss .. there are only 9 million shares of
stock out and the total cap is only about 25 MILLION
bucks ( over half of it is owned by Gold Fields ) ..
all of which I told you .. perhaps you dont read so
well ..
And you complain about tough spreads?? Buying
resources at a buck and a half plus a dividend yield
of over 20 per cent may actually require a bit of
effort .. Suggest you take the easy way out .. get
lots of ABX and retire on the dividend yield.. heh heh."

Oops, sorry about that. I hadn't seen you around for a couple days so I was carrying on in your fine tradition. I'll opt out of the Puetz reality check biz for awhile now...but I just HAD to comment on his latest post of the 20th.

You know, the one that claims all the evidence has now validated his "Eclipse = crash" theories!

The Moon....the Moon......

Including today, there are 6 trading days left in the month of September, please give us some more details about the Dow crashing down to 3000 by the end of the month and about panic ( ? ) , hysteria ( ? ) and bloods-in-the- streets ( ? ) becoming widespread.

Thanks.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

It does kind of sound like that. I kind of feel, though, that it is more in defense of the US stance.

Whether they choose to admit it or not, much of the world currency crises today can be laid at the feet of US strong dollar/high real interest rate policy. The resulting flow of liquidity from foreign markets into the US has brought the weaker countries to their knees and severly threatens even the stronger ones.

The US is now defending it's position, maintaining it's up to them to do what they can to hold the world up. To do this of course, they need to defend the "reserve currency of the world", the dollar. And also keep the US economy strong.

As the problem grows worse, their defense grows stronger.

Now there are calls for the US to lower rates...lowering rates, of course, lets all hell break lose. No one is about to lower rates. They'll let the rates take care of themselves. In adopting this stance, which can only serve to promote and accelerate global agony, they need justification.

And so it goes.

To all ..
I love it when guys say .. "too good to be true"
I REALLY love it .. IF you think that the numbers on
stocks like Harmony or Sgoly or Dbn-deep or randfontn
or implats etc etc are "TOO good to be true" then
please run out immediately and buy a big bunch of
Homestake or ABX ..
I see this as a character building excercise .. you'll
be poorer but it may make you into a better person.

Slowly, grudgingly, fighting, scratching and biting every step of the way I do believe the shorts are losing ground. Can they call in reserve troops?

By reviewing the week-end posts, I noticed that on Sunday you mentioned that the crash has now started. ( ? )

You also had it started a few times last year but not only there were no crashes but some powerful rallies ensued.

Are you sure this time that the crash has started?

Thanks.

Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 23:46
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
I reiterate my forecast from a week-and-a-half ago: The panic-phase of a stock market crash began about October 15th. While the actual high occurred on August 5th, the 10 weeks between August 5th and October 15th were part of a 10-week topping process.

Six weeks are the norm before a crash. But in the year 1720, it took the South Sea Bubble 10 weeks to complete its top. That appears to have been repeated in 1997. Virtually all stock markets around the world began to dive within days ( some before, some after ) of the October 15th full moon.

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

That's why October 31st is a good guess for the climax. In any case, the upcoming week should be devastating for stocks. A drop of 2000 to 4000 points should not be unexpected.

Once upon a time, there was this dollar which was backed by gold...this dollar was well defined and anyone could understand what it was REALLY worth...it had a value of 1/35 oz. of gold and therefore 35 of those would buy you one once of gold held in the treasury just for you....then came the politicians and they wanted to change the rules so that they could "meet the needs of the people", and they said that the treasury would no longer back the dollar by gold, but would back it by the good faith of the US Gov't and the GDP of this fine nation...So I said to myself, what is that good faith worth in this dollar that I hold in my hand??? Well if I assume that there are $18 Trillion dollars now in the world and the GDP of this nation is $2 Trillion a year then the value is ( .09 GDP$ ) ...but what happens if the GDP drops to $1 Trillion because of recession, is the dollar now devalued by 50% because the country is in a recession and has lowered it's GDP by 50%??? Or...should I use the value of the politicians and president of the USA and place all of my trust in what they are telling me...so that the dollar is worth 100% of all the B*ll Sh*t in Washington, then my dollar would be worth more when the president lies more and tells us that everything is looking really good now that he is in control...hell...sounds good to me, what's the problem??? What me worry?

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/Gf980914.htm

The sexcapades are behind us and the pattern of the last gold rally resumes ( I hope )

Korondy, now that I know about BMG preferred I shall follow that stock. Do you know of any others paying nice dividends?

When does AG speak to Congress today? If he says no to an interest rate reduction, we can expect another down DOW day.

Let me know if you are interested in a defendable y2k residence in Eastern Oregon. There are several places out here in the boondocks.

My perspective on the $ 's tangible value is simple : at any time , you can exchange your " sometime in the future " valueless paper against solid GOLD at the current exchange rate ( today 289 $ for an oz ) Keep some cash for purchasing whatever your household requirements are . That 's it.

Mr. Greenspan commences speaking at fourteen hundred hours. Two hours before the market close and a half hour before the metals close.

"Let me know if you are interested in a defendable y2k residence in Eastern Oregon. There are several places out here in the boondocks."

Are you any where near John Day? I've got a good friend there. Thinks it would be good place to hang out for Y2K.

To all you forecasters ..
I suggest that it is VERY conterproductive to
get into stuff like who makes better calls .. Glenn
or RJ or Oldgold .. This brings ego in the mix and
THAT can be harmfull to your wallet ..
I ONLY care whether I make money or not .. if Im
always wrong and I make money THATS GOOD .. If Im right
but lose dough NO THANKS.
I respectfully suggest to all who forecast .. dont
get your ego involved .. thats NOT very professional.
Regarding Glenn's reference to London based CRU ..
.. I think you get 12 monthly's covering almost all
the commodities for about 800 pounds .. On the one
hand .. thats expensive .. On the other hand .. I really
dont believe you can buy the key to the gold market for
800 quid a year. This market invented disinformation..
the only thing you can trust is the market itself ..
.. maybe.

Gold denominated FCX preferred B yielding 4.3%, selling
for about $190/oz, redeemed in 2003.

Gold denominated FCX preferred C yielding 6.2%, selling
for about $160/oz, redeemed in I think 2006. The Bass
family bought 25% of the preferred C outstanding recently.

Silver denominated FCX preferred D yielding 7.2%, selling
for a little over $3/oz, redeemed in four annual beginning
in 1999, each share representing four oz silver.

LGB- I thought the words were, "The horror, the horror" ...A ship this big takes a long time to turn around. It'll be years before we see Dow 3000.

Gollum- The fresh air did me some good. You keep searchin' all along the watchtower. How many ounces of gold or silver or shares of Homestake did it take to buy a Mercedes-Benz in 1964 and how many does it take today? Res ipsa loquitor. Value is where you find it.

Thanks...Bonds will tank along with the general market if the economy goes south. The rest of the world will pull out of the US market and send mucho dollars crashing on our shores.

Now, if I only knew if the economy was going to go south. Did I say going? Maybe I could buy some kind of a derivative to hedge the bet...but what if the counterparty fails? Oh, my...think I'll just stick my head in the sand

glenn...thanks for your posts...next time don't hold back. Tell us what you really think. : ) Food for thought.

Tom

Table 1
Foreign Currency Reserves Ranking Top 10

( 1 ) At the end of Aug 1998, Japan....209.3 bn USD
( 2 ) At the end of Jul, 1998, China...140.6 bn USD
( 3 ) At the end of Aug, 1998,Hong Kong..92.1 bn USD
( 4 ) At the end of Jul 1998, Taiwan.....83.6 bn USD
( 5 ) At the end of Jul 1998, Germany....83.5 bn USD
( 6 ) At the end of Jul 1998, US.........72.9 bn USD
( 7 ) At the end of May 1998, Brazil.....71.5 bn USD
( 8 ) At the end of Jul, 1998, Singapore.69.3 bn USD
( 9 ) At the end of Jul 1998, Spain......68.7 bn USD
( 10 ) At the end of Jul 1998, Italy.....45.6 bn USD
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/199809/21/0921167.htm

Why do you consistently waist Barts bandwidth with your relentless badgering of PUETZ? Pull out of it! Your lives should not revolve around PUETZs every word. Please ask yourselves, what is your insatiable desire in acknowledging his every move? This looks like PUETZ envy to me.
I like Puetz and enjoy his thoughts but as adults we make our own financial decisions. He has made some wrong calls. SO WHAT? - ITS FREE!
Are you advocating harassing everyone ( Professional or Lurkers ) on Kitco that have made wrong calls on the markets? I think NOT! Peace brother!

You said 1070 or 1075 S&P, and I agree, that'd be about 8300 DOW, which if I can find my post the day after our mini-crash, that's been my target for the DOW re-trace. Up up and away, ( not )

One of the things that is the $64 dollar question in my mind is: are we going to see deflation, gold at $225/oz, and the dollar retaining its status as the global reserve currency, or are we going to see inflation, gold at much higher prices, and the dollar losing its status as the global reserve currency with the EU taking over that position. I guess this boils down to whether the EU will be a success or not. Certainly the europeans believe so. Some americans think it will fail. The U.S. has certainly done a pretty good job of pissing off a number of countries who would love to use another reserve currency. Maybe this is where we could focus our discussion. Will the U.S. continue to be the big dog or not, and what is the timing for all of this? I think this is the essential question.

Placer Dome Gold ( NYSE:PDG ) also has a convertible preferred, but I don't follow it.

Still in the stock market crash subject:

What's happening with the crash that you said started in New Zealand a few weeks ago?

Send us an update please, thanks.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand.

I posted this link before and it was also posted over here in full. I'm posting it once again because I'm wondering if there isn't the possiblility of global rate cuts. It's taken from a thread over on Silicon Investor. The poster seems very knowledgeable. He knew about the Japanese rate cuts before anyone else too.

"Keep your ears open the next few weeks. There are rumours in the markets of a 'big
package' being put together by th G-7 to put some sort of floor under global risk
generally, and emerging markets specifically. There are no specific details as yet but the
sources appear credible. Timing appears to be after German elections and the Fed's
meeting. Brazil appears to be the near term target. Russia, however, does not appear to
be high on the priority list.

From a strategic perspective this makes sense. The speculative community was hurt
badly by Russia and Malaysian currency controls. They are not in as strong a position as
they were 6 months ago. So the timing is right for a concerted defense. But even given
that the G-7 need to select the right point to set their line of defense. Russia is a basket
case and indefensible given its current situation. Brazil on the other hand has a real and
functioning economy. Yes they have problems but they are amenable to reform. Brazil
would probably be the G-7s best target for drawing a line in the sand.

FWIW I am not saying yes or no to what ever plan may be in formation. There are not
enough details. But we could be in for some interesting developments. And it certainly
makes sense for the G-7 to try something and I've been expecting them to pick Brazil.
Let's hope it is their Bastogne and not their Alamo."

gold holding here is a very good sign.
Chart looks similar to Mar 87 consolidation pattern. Could sit here for a few days before next leg up to 305--310. The stops are probably on a downtrending line from the 9-11 & 9-21 highs. look for fireworks if penetrated-294-295 levels next couple of days.

The weekly chart continues to look extremely bullish. If you have access to old charts, look at Dec 85 live cattle. It looks remakably similar to weekly gold from Jan 96 on, particularly the double bottom that is about complete. If the pattern holds, we are headed for 380.

Regarding the stock market--the sideways pattern could continue for months, but will not exceed the old highs. The next downleg will happen after the buy-on-dips-boys give up.

gold holding here is a very good sign.
Chart looks similar to Mar 87 consolidation pattern. Could sit here for a few days before next leg up to 305--310. The stops are probably on a downtrending line from the 9-11 & 9-21 highs. look for fireworks if penetrated-294-295 levels next couple of days.

The weekly chart continues to look extremely bullish. If you have access to old charts, look at Dec 85 live cattle. It looks remakably similar to weekly gold from Jan 96 on, particularly the double bottom that is about complete. If the pattern holds, we are headed for 380.

Regarding the stock market--the sideways pattern could continue for months, but will not exceed the old highs. The next downleg will happen after the buy-on-dips-boys give up.

Metal keep pushing up. Spot silver continues to outrun the futures. Looks like lots of speculators getting in on the short side as spot moves up into resistence.

This could get even more interesting.

Interesting post on China's reported potential reserve increase. In a similar vain ( of high grade ore ) ...

Did you see the report a couple weeks ago that the Belgian CB 300 ton sale was called off? Yes indeed. This should help balance the books for the year also.

And isn't it interesting, that the Belgian 300 ton sale was the VERY sale that ANOTHER claimed was the fulfillment of his insider info. "A big purchase now sends a new message...bring Gold back to the $360.00 level...rush to cover.....NASB...etc."

Of course this "Big" Belgian purchase / sale news didn't even occur to ANOTHER as being the fulfillment of his "insider" info. statement..... until his dewey eyed followers here at Kitco filled him in to this fact.

Ironic considering that even if the intended sale was allowed to proceed instead of being called off.......it was intended by Belgium to occur in very small increments over a period of years! "Big purchase" indeed!

The ANOTHER quote

A large purchase, now, is sending another message, "bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market", as it is not as before. I will post later in march!


Vintage Another....March 98

"Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end."

Shows no volume today, at least on American Markets. Toronto, GRE.TO, shows activity. Anyone know what's up?

Now.....here is my forecast.

--------------

Gold will go up.....then down......then up again......then down again............ ( not necessarily in that order ) .

--------------

away...to climb on some giants shoulders to look behind me to see something forward....ohmy.....and to cast smokescreens to my neighbors and friends while filling my detractors with arrows of knowledge......thwock-thwock!!

oscki

G&P to all!

I let him eat a rabbit before the race. Sorry about that.
-EJ

I see nothing wrong with pointing out predictions that didn't come to fruition. It's a good idea in fact, so we can learn who seems to have a good track record and who to listen to more closely. But relentless attacks are of a different order and IMHO, will only keep from getting new and perhaps VERY valuable posters from coming over here, AS PER BART'S WISHES.

hate it when that happens

hit "submit your comment" box, get message on my Webtv ( maybe that's my problem ) saying that Kitco is too busy to use. Problem--do I hit "submit" again or forget it and risk losing my post.

Sorry. 'bout last night....didn't know what you meant by "deregulation"....that term means a specific thing to an oiley. studio.sans.forecasts studio.standing.on.back.of.chair.to.change.light.bulb

G&P to YA!! 'til the cows come home.

Arrrrhhh, I donna think she can take much more of this Cap'n

EB ..
You are REALLY good ..
That's what I call a real forecast ..
and it's FREE

Yes I saw that about Belgium and it was another piece of interesting infomation.

The long term prospects of Gold are improving but as opposed to what most here seem to believe ( and wish for ) : It's not "armageddon" or "end of the world" types of panics that will help Gold but rather a steady improvement in worldwide prosperity.

While we may still encounter a few stressful situations ahead, especially in Japan and Brazil, the overall evolution may very well be towards solid worldwide growth and a bit of healthy inflation.

The world is not about to end and no crashes ahead for North-America!

Good for Gold!

Found this article to be somewhat disconcerting because the article
stated that the ANC would get 2/3 of the vote in next year's election and
could possibly change the property clause in the Constitution.

Perhaps a South Africa resident could comment on this. Thanks.

Found this article to be somewhat disconcerting because the article
stated that the ANC would get 2/3 of the vote in next year's election and
could possibly change the property clause in the Constitution.

Perhaps a South Africa resident could comment on this. Thanks.

Forgot to add:

And very very very good for Silver!

It appears to me that the Demcrats want to rush this thru before all the evidence is out because they know that there is plenty more ammo against Clinton. Their spin team is wide open, but they are going to run out of gas- or be pulled when the next shoe drops

Lurker you said..... "Are you advocating harassing everyone ( Professional or Lurkers ) on Kitco that have made wrong calls on the markets? I think NOT! Peace brother!"

And peace to you too. No, I do not advocate harrasment of folks giving their perspective and opinions, right or wrong. Now let me explain my motives why I take Puetz to task, Realistic will have to speak for himself.

We all have our perspective, out take on the markets, our failed expectations and market calls, etc. etc. You'll notice I don't comment on anyone else's ( except ANOTHER and a certain *F word who resides here no longer )

The reason I try and keep Puetz's progosticating words foremost in our minds, are several. I've ennumerated them at length here before. Very briefly however;

1 ) As one trained in the scientific approach to ideas, facts, and reality.... I always find it abhorent when someone distorts the truth and the plain objective evidence. Particularly with something as easy to track as correlating celestial events to market events.... in order to validate a whacko theory they're trying to prove. Puetz does this reality twisting and truth twisting...trashing of the objective evidence, in a world class manner.

As an engineer and scientist, I find it disgusting. It reminds me of Clinton's spinmesiters ......however, truth and reality, subject to interpretation though they may be...can not be avoided forever. Reposting Puetz's words frequently gives perspective to the folly of such a deceptive approach to life.

Just as in the old Soviet regime era, truth will rise above all the spinmeistering crap that propagandists try and foist off on the masses to connvice them that a turd is really a gold nugget. Reality is what it is...not what someone claims it to be. A turd is a turd no matter how many times some spinmeister tells me it's a Gold nugget.

2 ) Puetz is not just some other shmoe giving his investor opinions here like the rest of us. He sells financial analysis for a living. He's a credentialed, economics educated, financial analyst. He makes his living selling Newsletters and books on this subject.

In other words, he sets himself up as a guru that should have more influence and sway as an "expert" in world economics, and hence influence over the investment decisions of the naive.... than the average bear.

As such, Puetz's words ought to come under far more intense scrutiny than the words of other folks who postulate here...He should be subject to consistent and exhaustive peer review.

This is particularly true when we consider, that Puetz's claim to fame....his own self carved market niche...., is the EXTRAORDINARY market predictions he makes, and some of his basis for those predictions. Lunar events and such. As any scientist will tell you...extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence......and ought to be subject to extraordinary SCRUTINY.

Particularly if the claims are being made by someone who puports to be an expert in his field. A writer of economic analysis Newsletters and books for example....who makes his very living peddling these extraordinary claims to folks who think him an "expert".

And when we consider Puetz's absolutely uncanny ability to make bad calls, and his insistence on redefining these terrible calls as GOOD calls..."hits" if you will.... then anyone who prizes a bit of truth in this deceptive, media spun world of ours, should cry out loud and long.

An absolute love of truth... and abhorrence of those who distort facts to fit their own agenda....those are the motives that rile me so regarding Puetz and his quarterly crash scenario calls.

I'm sure that sounds self serving....but it isn't meant to be. You won't see me dogging anyone else's bad calls this way.

Those who have followed Puetz's recommendations long term, buying S&P Puts when he frequently calls for a Lunar event induced crash.....using money "they can afford to lose"...no longer HAVE any "money they can afford to lose".

Couldn't agree more... Kitco has become mysteriously slow over the past month,
and to tolerate endless rehashes of bad calls is helping NOBODY.
One rehash is useful to chastise... dozens are a waste of everyone's time. We all got it, guys... Puetz is not to be followed. We got it.

As RJ is fond of pointing out, Bart makes money from Kitco when folks are encouraged to buy from him... I've nearly stopped visiting due to the speed and the negativity. Am I alone in this? Probably not.

Can we just let it rest?

Peace to all. Thanks for the useful information and humor!

MG ( Go Gold & Silver & Plat! )

For DEJ ..
1. I think it is unlikely the ANC
will get 2/3 of the vote in
next year's election ..
2. Even in the unlikely event they
DO get 2/3 of the vote .. I think
it unlikely they would change the
property clause in the constitution.
Why would anyone think that they
would ?? Plus the ANC have said
that they would not do so.
The WSJ and the rest of the US
press worked very hard for sanctions
against RSA and pressed for ANC
ascendency rather than the more
mOderate IFP. Then After the ANC gained
power on the back of US and UK press
support .. the press began to say how
dangerous they are .. Gee I think they
have some kind of agenda... The IMF is
furious at RSA handling of the RAND
crisis which was managed without
any IMF assistance..
Do you think this could have anything
to do with the fact that this is the
world's largest gold producer ??

I couldn't agree more. Recovery of world markets, possibly assisted by inflation inducing methods...are going to be the forces that drive Gold and SIlver much higher over the next few years.

A recovery in India and Asia and renewed purcahses to former, steadily increasing levels. Renewed industrial consumption, outstripping production....inflation of money supplies..including here in the U.S. ( AG is close..oh so close.... ) , a strengthening Yen, and eventually strengthening Oil price once demand rises substantially due to world recovery, renewed jewelry buying by emerging market consumers ( and photography in the case of silver ) ...

These are the engines of change that'll drive the metals higher in the months ahead.

LGB, I don't argue that ANOTHER has made terrible short term calls in the POG, but I believe you are "throwing the baby out with the bathwater" when it comes to ANOTHER. The bulk of his writings are about the coming changes in the Architecture of the global currency system as a result of the introduction of the EURO, not short-term calls in the POG. Perhaps you use those short-term calls as a judge to his credibility. I do not though. It never seemed his intention to predict short-term fluctuations in the POG, but rather broad-sweeping, long-range consequences of the introduction of the EURO.

The horse died about ten beatings ago. Yes?

Tom

That's what I thought but it's good to hear from a resident who knows
the score. Thanks again.

( 1 ) Out of money? Issue a report that traders can trade off of...
FT 9/23/98--"Foreign investment flows 'still strong'"
Latin America is continuing to attract strong flows of foreign direct investment in spite of instability on international financial markets according to a report to be published this week." COMMENT: The actual figures in the report are from 1997 and suggest "similar flows have continued this year" without substantiating figures, at least in this article.
( 2 ) "Over third of brokers 'share in secret deals': Soft dollar transactions SEC report reveals that 'virtually all advisors charging hidden commissions are breaking security laws'." No Comment.
( 3 ) Europeans unsettled by 'humiliating' spectacle ( re: Clinton ) From Moscow--Natasha Gorelova, a 27 year old travel agent said:"I wish we
had their problems. Our president drinks and forgets the names of the countries he goes to visit, but we still say nothing."
Whilst a police guard outside the US embassy in Moscow said: "If Yeltsin had slept with a woman he would get elected for a third term." oh my...
( 4 ) EB@Sensible.gold.prognosications It works for me! {:- ) )

AG will announce ( in what, 35 minutes? ) :

A. Rate hike
B. Steady as she goes. ( My pick )
C. Rate cut.

EJ - I should have known! ; )

Spot silver just hit 5.00, Can Arnold's crew hold out much longer? Who is that masked man leading the forces on the other side???

I forecast that there will continue to be detractors and people telling the detractors to stop it.

I also forecast that people who don't like it will either not post not lurk or use the scroll button.

I also maintain that this is the way it should be in a public/cyber debate. 'Tis what makes kitco great.

Don't say it if you have thin-skin.

away...

thickskinned...andheaded

go gold...........2-2-5?? I do see more trouble for it.........but........2-2-5?? Hmmmmmmmmmmm......... ( wow ) .........that brings new meaning to the gold-abyss.........and I am STILL with Aurator that there is ALOT more gold than 180,000 tonnes of it above ground..........much of it remains in FortEB.......guarded by a very wiley and ferrocious house cat named Ringo...........uh huh....so don't come a knockin'...........uh uh..........he'll claw your shins bloody......and he won't share his food when your weary and bloody from the fight...........water yes.........salmon.......no way.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

MM.... I vote for "B"

Tom... I agree,,except the damn horse keeps comin back to life!

Crazytimes... Hmmm, the Euro, we shall see. A bunch of countries who've never agreed about anything, suddenly co-operating and forming a new "oil/Gold" currency, and demolishing the dollar and all world paper. I don't buy it but I know there are those who do. Time will tell.

I shall be gone for a time....

Gold today ASB

I believe Another in his early posts always tied gold to oil...not the Euro. While I would have to go read all those posts to be sure, which I don't plan to do, as I recall the Euro kind of replaced the oil reasoning in the spring of this year.

Not that this is necessarily without logic but did seem to be a change in the underlying THOUGHTS.

While I am to untrusting to be a "follower" I do see currency crisis ongoing. The least you can say is he is certainly not a rude or unkind person in his posts and his thinking is, at least to me, interesting.

You know what was said about the Wright brothers....well, the concept is that what may appear to be a fool one day is not a few months later.

However...have not seen the shorts rushing to cover yet! So far ASB.

Tom

Anyone watching CNBC this morning? Isn't that gold thing Sue H. is wearing striking? It sort of grabs your eyes.

ANOTHER great forecast EB! You rule...you rock...you da man.

Now, speaking of forecasts, don't say I didn't tell you'all the past 2 days to buy LOR. Up 10% today...and a lot further UP to go! Thanks Puetz!

OK, now I really am gone.......

and I do not mean that to be unkind but only reflective of the past. ASB...so far.

Tom

Indonesia says reaches debt accord with Paris Club
JAKARTA, Sept 23 ( Reuters ) - Indonesia has reached an accord with its official creditors in the Paris Club to reschedule debt principal totalling $4.2 billion, Finance Minister Bambang Subianto said on Wednesday "Certainly we hope this will strengthen the rupiah, because this is a reducing pressure on our foreign debt payment," he told reporters.

Under the deal, reached at talks in Paris this week, principal on soft loans will be repaid over 20 years with a five year grace period and on export credits over 11 years with a three-year grace period.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/reuters/9809242.html

TYoung@recollections Yes, that is what my files show too...

Agree absolutely - day traders are poised for the ( non ) move.
Same bet applies for the 9/29 FOMC.

ASA down 1/2 and AU down 11/16.
Perhaps this is due to potential wars in South Africa.
If any of these mines are affected, then gold would really
take off. Only S.A. gold stock that I own is ASA.
Any opinions? Maybe this scenario has been overlooked.

Highhopes

Korondy, After due consideration I'm leaning towards SGOLY as the best bet. I thank you so much for your input.

Siverbaron, I've had investments in trusts before, namely Rainior Timberlands ( LOG ) and find that they decrease in value too rapidly for my taste as expiration date nears. Thank you so much for your input also.

John Disney, I am considering buying my sis/in law several k shares. It's currently qouted at 2 13/16 and yielding +/- 20%. Do you have any info on the history of ylds and their viability? Thank you John.

Best wishes to you and all Kitcoites ( Save Leaky Gum Boots until he gets off his high horse and stops showing how smart he is by putting certain people down. One would think he would learn ) .

Pete

to all
What kind of odds can I get on a
rate CUT ?? who'll say 10/1

The two stocks you mentioned are probably down because many times the SA golds act as early warning indicators on the short-term direction of the gold price.

After Monday's turn, we're probably heading a little lower first.

BTW, if you have some information on pending wars in SA please share them with us. I am not aware of anything on the front burner. But I don't usually watch the news, except for Bill and Monica. That has my interest.

So let us know if there's any tangible evidence of immenent wars in SA.

Thanks

Preacher

just put it off for 3-5 years...right. Things must be bad for that kind of a "deal".

Glad my recollections are ok.

Tom

Tom

25 miles out of town. No jobs here, but lots of security.

Yutaka Sotome Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent
WASHINGTON -- Defense Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga
on Monday met with U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen at the U.S.
Defense Department and officially expressed Tokyo's intention to begin
research on a shipborne defensive missile system.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/0923po07.htm

In some circles, this is being 'read' as Japan's intention to rearm,[I kid you not] first as an aid to economy's problems ( shades of US 1941 ) and secondly as necessary for a major world power. ( One would think that an accommodation with the Chinese army would be in the cards too. )

"Above all, holding gold is, from the political point of view, a sign of monetary sovereignty. Even today, holding gold is an insurance policy against a major breakdown in the international monetary system. http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/Gfad2txt.htm

SOVEREIGN INDIVIDUALS and their SOVEREIGN FAMILIES...growing their own food, providing their own shelter and clothing, producing their own power, thinking for themselves, minting the fruits of their labors into their own coins of their realm. Gold and Silver - universally accepted for trade {or at least they used to be - and may be again if individuals assert their sovereign rights} and not dependent on any government fiat.

Greenspan will say, paraphrased: "While the US economy begins to show signs of impact from economic problems in emerging markets, the US economy remains strong. At this point there is no indication that a rate change is necessary."

Which means: "If you dorks on Wall Street think I'm going to drop rates to make your lives easier, you're smoking crack."

-EJ

just bought some shares of T.ORV. If things go purple it will be my fault. Sorry in advance.

The "War" was for RSA to intervene
in big mess in Lesotho .. at the request
of lesotho government .. I think 8
RSA soldiers killed so far and
reception was very unfavorable ..
also Government blasted by Opposition
in Parliament..
RSA had gotten involved in lesotho
by having agreed to monitor elections
to see if they were "free and fair"
.. they said "I guess so" but losers
didnt agree ..
.. Actually ASA and AU off today
because of unexpected strength in
Rand .. with attendent fall in rand
gold price.

The Dow Jones utilities keep powering to new all time highs...

For T Young ..
Lets say 10/1 against a rate cut
between now and the end of the year.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980924/world/world2.html

wonder if this means lotsa backroom cleaning up has to go on ... hehe ... and more cooking the books to get that bottom line clean ;- )

My $.025 worth ( .02 adjusted for

deflation ) . I agree with LGB that those who

hold themselves out as gurus

should be subject to criticism and held

accountable for their past predictions.

Indeed, what better measure to base their worth

as an expert than their track record? And, as

people are placing bets based on these

predictions it is a valuable service to have

their accuracy made known ( although I do think

that people take their best shot and hope for the

best in this business. Guru or not, nobody knows

the future ) . As to this criticism becoming a

personal attack, this smacks somewhat of the

liberal, Rodney King-esque, "cant we all just

get along?" credo. While personal attacks

on this forum have sometimes become repugnant,

obviously out of line, and just plain stupid, I

think an occasional, cogent, and revealing

discussion of prediction accuracy is not a bad

thing. Puetz predictions have had a miserable

success rate, but I am still rooting for him,

die-hard, pathetic gold bug that I am.

"Go Plat!" he cried as the ship sank beneath him......

Gold stocks are rising with the Stock Market at the same time that the dollar is up against all currencies...could this be a new trend??? Maybe anticipation of AG's testimony ( I mean propaganda ) ....

Pete, sgoly is the largest holding in my retirement account, I've owned it for about 6 years now. My research goes back to 1972, which they were paying the ~20% dividend. If you look at the 52 week chart, the floor is just above 2 bucks. But the spread can get to 3/8th when its down there. This last move to 3 bucks started just before the it went ex-dividend. Personnally, I think you'll be able to get it below 2.5 in the next month or two. On the other hand, if gold breaks 300 and stays there I would be buying at 3. I really like this stock.

"Trying to find a tangible value to the dollar...Once upon a time, there was this dollar which was backed by gold"
Money 100% backed by Gold - because it is 100% Gold {99.99% to be exact}.
One could buy rifle cartridges or aspirin tablets to use for trade OR one could buy Gold and chop it up into little trade-size pieces. Better yet, melt and mint it into little coins for trading with neighbors for rifle cartridges and aspirin tablets ( they are a lot lighter than cartridges and don't dissolve in mud puddles like aspirin tablets do ) .

FT-America in Europe

"The apprehensive preoccupation of Americans with the European political situation, and with Berlin as its storm-centre, continues to find its most obvious reflection in the erratic and indescisive course of the New York stock market. Many observers agree that improved relations between Russia and the Western Powers would bring an immediate and vigorous response from Wall Street. The caution of Wall Street is symptomatic of a widespread realisation in America that the widening rift between East and West may soon impose even heavier obligations on America."

Published 50 years ago: 9/23/1948
Not exact repeat, but close enough for horsehoes?
bbml

IMHO, I believe that AG will cut rates by a 1/4 point in late Oct. as a political manuver for the politicians...I agree with Gollum that the market will set the rates....that the fed at this point is just a figure head...It has to look like AG is still in control, but we all know that the markets are the ones who are really in control...the markets smell fear and prosperity alike and move accordingly. At tops and bottoms, unless the fed move is countertrend, it is just "putting on the show".

.

Located in Coos Bay, I've traipsed those eastern Oregon hinterlands
by the tire change and brake over the years, mostly for work, some
pleasure and mainly for reasons of points beyond ( ID, MT, WY ) .

Nice out there if one's version of nice is finding more than
one stoplight getting a tad crowded.

I just placed an order until cancelled for 2000 shares at 2 13/16 and will place more for her by averaging down if possible. Thank you again for valuable info.

Pete

For kuston .. others
Something is going on .. St helena
traded over 190,000 here today .. the
highest volume Ive seen yet ..
NY volume is high too ..
..

another new high.

the company that has so little tangible assets now has a market cap of 10 Billion Buckazoids. I wonder what the PE ratio of this baby is ...

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=YHOO&d=1ym

I am in Portland.
-c

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/curcommt.htx?SOURCE=htx/http2_mw

silver strong on a Dow up day.

look forward to updates on silver warehouse levels and lease/forward rates...

Showing spot at 5.030

Silver futures not keeping up with spot all day

Chartists may have to redo their charts

What did you say Buffett was going to do with hs $9 bill?

Guy here named Arnold wants to know. Some people from PEI calling too.

I asked Henry V. over on Silicon if he thought part of this new plan to help emerging markets was global rate cuts. Here's his response.

"Global rate cuts may be part of the package. But I'm hearing more about providing new loans. This will done via swap facilities etc but at the end of the day it will be new lending."

no other way to view this rise today. World markets are up, world currencies yen, euro-block, etc slightly off w.r.t. the dollar BUT gold is UP relative to the dollar.

Gold is now rising above ALL currencies including the mighty toilet paper....new version now on issue.

great minds must think alike. we must have been looking at the same numbers at the same time...

well, i must away. WAY past sleeptime.

are we gonna scuttle the yellow submarine anytime soon? ( next few days would be nice )

clone-- yup, Portland too, too much Portland. Yuck, too big.
Gimme Happy, Christmas, Riddle...Podunk, Widespot, Bugtussle..

The situation in many emerging market economies is illustrative. Under stress, fixed exchange rate arrangements have failed from time to time. Consequently, domestic currency interest rates, reflecting devaluation probability premiums, are almost always higher in emerging market economies with fixed exchange rates than in the economy of the major currency to which the emerging economy has chosen to peg. That currency is often the dollar.

This phenomenon, and its risky exploitation, is one important element in the current crisis and a symptom of what has gone wrong generally. What appeared to be a successful locking of currencies onto the dollar over a period of years in East Asia and elsewhere, led, perhaps inevitably, to large borrowings of cheaper dollars to lend at elevated domestic interest rates, with the intermediary pocketing the devaluation risk premium. When the amount of unhedged dollar borrowings finally became excessive, as was almost inevitable, the exchange rate broke. Incidentally, it also broke in Sweden in 1992 when large borrowings of DM to lend in krona at higher interest rates met the same fate. Such episodes are not uncommon, suggesting that investors, even sophisticated ones, are prone to this type of gambling.

It is all there, in their quote page. The P/E ratio is N/A because their earnings are negative ( -0.36 per share ) , which means they lost over 33 million dollars. Therefore, the P/E ratio is beyond infinity, since if the earnings were at zero, they would be infinity.

Now, negative earnings are by no means unusual for a startup. Generally however, prudent investors would not bid a market startup to 10Billion bucks unless the following conditions are met:

- The startup has a guaranteed market, preferably protected by a patent or monopoly

- The startup has little or no competition

- There is a plan in place to generate real earnings in a short time


As far as I know YAHOO meets none of the above criteria. The search engine market is extremely competitive. Even though YAHOO is very innovative and constantly adds new things, prospects of making any money from it are slim ( the little advertising banners are the only source of their income, not nearly enough to cover expenses ) .

When the insane bubble finally bursts, it will be uuuugly!!!

Let's see, everytime new lending has been extended to a country/region in crisis it has exacerbated the flight of capital already happening, e.g. Thailand, S. Korea, Indonesia, Russia. It's like an alcoholic admitting for the first time that he's a drunk, one last binger occurs. Regardless of the lending institution involved IMF, Swiss banks, World Bank.
The BIG question now is, how much new lending is available to a WORLD in crisis, at some.point the lenders, be they tax-payers, private capital ( fat chance their horns are already in ) , or cowboy bankers?
The new lending is not limitless....our interest in this as goldbugs ( analogous to dried up alkis ) is how deep is the barrel? ( punchbowl ) . When the party funds dry up....the hangover can really begin, and the GOLDEN morning sun will rise anew.

Reflation! Reflation! The Goldbugs are coming...the goldbugs are coming! ( with apologies to Paul Revere )

The financial industry has been devoting resources to create a robust management structure for operational risk. Problems such as those of the U.S. offices of Daiwa Bank and at Barings reflected failures of management oversight and internal control. Such failures, especially when combined with individual wrongdoing, can have a devastating impact on financial firms. Other, more prosaic, examples of the high cost of control failures or cleaning up problems do not make the headlines, but
exist in virtually every firm.

But Greenspan, speaking days ahead of the Fed's Sept 29 monetary policy meeting, emphasized in his testimony that the world's financial problems were far from over and policymakers needed to be sensitive to the crisis. ``There is little evidence to suggest that the contagion has subsided,'' he said.


Greenspan Says Turmoil Curbing U.S. Inflation
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980923/bs/greenspan_8.html

Can you please tell me the chart buy points at which you would step in and increase purchases of gold. I know that Martin Pring likes to see a certain London clsoe in bullion. Would you go by physical gold close, XAU close, 200 day average crossing of, say, XAU, etc.
We all ought to be prepared IF gold were to SURPRISE us on the upside.
Thanks for any thinking you have in this regard.

Highhopes

I just talked to some guy by the name of Arnold, he was asking me if I could lend him some silver??? Do you know why this might be? He also asked if there was someplace he could buy gold...I gave him a few names and asked him how much he needed...he said a few million OZs...I said...No Problem!

So let us review. Over the last week or two we have noticed strange movements in the silver futures. Logs floating upstream, so to speak.

In the overnight markets, and particularly when gold would fall a little which December silver would normaly follow, it would not only hold but actually rise. In the light of day, the log would resume floating downriver with the current.

Perhaps someone was building up some calls in anticipation of a sizeable buy?

Now, despite chartists, London and New York analyst and trader comments of a very bearish nature, spot silver rose even during a rising DOW.

It will be very intersting indeed to see warehouse reports, but even more the leasing/forward rates.

I use cost averaging for physical metals purposes, since the leverage isn't important as it is for mining stocks. Spreading the purchases over a long time horizon keeps me from worrying about picking the bottom.

I'm a LOT more conservative about when I buy buy mining stocks, because there is not only the leverage and volatility of gold to worry about, but also a general market risk involved.

You are a deranged individual - that, by the way, is a compliment
-c

My damn broker said they weren't accepting any orders for stocks below $3. I need a good broker who can handle anything from Vancouver pennies on up to whatever. I would appreciate any 800 #'s available, Many thanx, Charlie

XAU rising like a Banshee!!! The Gold stocks are on the rise and should confirm the previous move up...Hold on to your seats...here we go!!!!

about your ( and Mozel's ) idea of privately minted coin. you wrote:

"... SOVEREIGN FAMILIES...growing their own food,..., minting the fruits of their labors into their own "coins of their realm".

While this is a satisfying daydream, in practice it is unworkable.
I acknowledge you carry the concept slightly farther than Mozel, but do you have any idea what's involved in refining metal? I move tens of thousands of scrap gold each year, and have done so for 20 years.

Buying it and sending it to the refiner. I am delighted to pay them the small fee ( 3% ) for this service. Refining is one of the worst jobs I can imagine. I have two friends that are small time ( 3 to 10 million $ )
refiners. The horrible occupational hazards, caustic chemicals, and
low margin make me shake my head. Better them than me.

The one fellow produces purity of .9999 and is recognized in his area as a trustworthy refiner. This means people *in his area* accept his small bars with hallmarking as good. But if you move outside his area people won't touch these bars at face purity because they "don't know the mark".

This is the dilemma of gold as coin. We accept the maple leaf, Mountie, American eagle, etc at stamped purity because of the reliability of the issuer, and because *everybody else* accepts this too.

Even the old city states of Athens and Sparta, had to have their coins in circulation and tested and accepted for quite some time before they became the coin of the realm.

So even if a hundred regular joes, learned the ins and outs of refining, set up the labs, bought the aqua regia, and nitric, and precipitating salts, and after quite some time produced "slugs" ( because we haven't even talked about the specialized field of minting ) - would YOU accept one of these slugs as pure? and believed it's weight without pause?

Having the duty revert back to the states where it belongs is one thing, dreaming about every little farmer minting coins is quite another.

Sounds corny, but I use Charles Schwab for all my penny stocks and have gotten some very good service...

September 23, 1998

U.S. Senate approves bankruptcy reform bill

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Senate on Wednesday approved the first major overhaul of U.S. bankruptcy laws in 20 years, a bill making it more difficult for consumers to abuse the system to get out of their debts.

The bill, passed by a vote of 97 to 1, is designed to curb mounting petitions for personal bankruptcy, giving creditors a chance to recoup some of their losses.

"There is not a single family in America that is not paying part of the cost of bankruptcy," said Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican and chief sponsor of the bill, as debate had continued for several days on the sweeping reforms.

The legislation - similar to a bill passed in June in the House of Representatives - would tighten U.S. banking laws by encouraging more individuals to file under Chapter 13 bankruptcy plans, requiring consumers to pay back a portion of their debts.

Lawmakers in both chambers must now reconcile differences in the two bills.

Under Chapter 7 plans, individuals are allowed to liquidate their assets and wipe out most unsecured debts, including those to credit card issuers.

Credit card industry representatives say often times when consumers go into Chapter 7 plans, they have an ability to pay a portion of their debts.

Under the bill, creditors would have more say in bankruptcy courts, influencing debtors to file Chapter 13 plans with scheduled repayments.

They have a fixed rate charge for trading Canadian stocks...just $19.95 regardless of the number of shares traded. They do not allow trading of Canadian stocks over their internet site though.

However, you can trade OTC:BB over their internet site as well as all major exchanges.

rates could shed some light today. I'll be posting Warehouse stats in
about twenty minutes or so...Fox-man

"Also, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, do you suppose there is any connection between the sudden dovishness of Greenspan and McDonough and the news reports today that a high profile hedge fund ( LTCM ) has lost more than 100% of its capital and has had to approach its commercial lenders for assistance. With a balance sheet of $20 billion ( and probably higher ) it could do some serious damage to financial institutions if it went belly up."

Source: comment from forex discussion group

You must be talking about Smith Barney! They have that policy. I have
two brokers. The one at Smith Barney needs me to sigh a waiver before
every purchase of a stock below $5. The Morgan Stanley/Dean Witter broker will buy anything I want. My girl friend uses Charles Schwab
and I do her stuff on line. No problem with buying most of the stuff I
want. Good executions and service. DROOY, RANGY no problem. Can do most
Canadian also.

If you like your broker just sign a waiver. But if you plan to do
some of the Canadian stocks make sure he can get quotes. Some can't.

Thanks, and GO GOLD! GD

In response to a question on global instability, Greenspan answered, "I do think that we have to bring the existing instability to a level of stability reasonably shortly to prevent the contagion form really spilling over and creating some very significant kinds of problems for all of us."

How soon??

FIGHTER PLANES TURNED INTO PLOWSHARES?
Despite one of the worst harvests in the last three decades, acting
Minister of Food and Agriculture Viktor Semenov told Interfax on
22 September that Russia will not import large quantities of grain.
He said grain imports will not exceed 3 million tons. Semenov,
however, does not rule out barter. The same day, Interfax
reported that Russia has offered Hungary between five and eight
MiG-29s in exchange for wheat. JAC

COMMUNISTS OUT OF TOUCH WITH WORKERS
According to a resolution passed by the Communist Party's recent
Central Committee Plenum and published in "Sovetskaya Rossiya"
on 22 September, labor protests are growing but the Communist
Party does not have firm control over the movement. The
resolution cites a '"fivefold increase" in the number of striking
enterprises since the beginning of 1998 but notes that many
Communist Party raion and city organizations have "little influence"
on local labor collectives. Also included in the resolution is the
Central Committee decree that the council of the Communist
Party's Duma faction should set up public tribunals throughout the
Russian Federation "to bring charges against Boris Yeltsin for the
acts he has committed against the people." JAC

BELARUS LOSES ITS BATTLE FOR THE HARVEST

by Jan Maksymiuk

Lukashenka put on a brave face at the official celebration of the
harvest's end in the town of Nyasvizh on 19 September. "You
saved the country," he told the best-performing tractor and harvest
combine operators, awarding new Lada cars to 12 of them. And
he pledged food aid to crisis-stricken Russia.




He did not, however, breathe a word about what is an open secret
in Belarus: a majority of Belarusians place their hope to stay alive
not on a state-sponsored "battle for the harvest" but on tiny plots
of land near their country homes and dachas. There, they grow
their meager crop of vegetables and potatoes to sustain themselves
through the winter. As for the Belarusian government, even half a
century after the war it still wants people to believe that food
provision is a heroic exploit, not a routine economic task.

http://www.rferl.org/newsline/fulltext.html

Moreover, I buy anytime there is weakness. But there must be chartpoints that confirm that we are in a new bull market. As i said, Martin Pring uses a designated London gold fix ( the close ) to determine if a bull has started. Even though we have some gold now, we might want to step up to the plate and add to our positions. I'm trying to determine some gauges to use to identify the breakout, if it ever happens.

Highhopes

What are your Japanese Candlesticks revealing about today's action?
Could there still be more upward momentum in the next few days?

Regards

Rolly

Futures World News - September 23, 1998 15:04

New York-Sept. 23-FWN--PRECIOUS METALS ENDED THE session firmer here today, with silver getting
an added boost from stop-loss buying on the day after a sharp drawdown was reported in warehouse inventories.

Gold and silver may also have drawn support from increased ideas that U.S. interest rates might come down,
sources said. Platinum and palladium also firmed, getting a help from the move in the other metals.

December silver added 15.3 cents to $5.0430, while December gold added $2 to $292.50.

"In the case of silver, it was the big drawdown reported in COMEX stocks after the close yesterday," said Dave
Rinehimer, head of futures research with Salomon Smith Barney.

Silver inventories fell 1,262,054 troy ounces to 75,949,208 troy ounces.

"Both markets recovered a bit on the ideas of an increased likelihood of some easing by the Fed," said
Rinehimer. This should mean increased economic activity that would boost industrial demand, he explained.

"We've been more inclined to see deflationary than inflationary pressures," Rinehimer said. "The markets are
going to need a stronger demand base to support higher price levels. The idea of lower interest rates ( leading to )
stronger demand should be supportive to commodities in general."

A floor trader noted that comments late in the session from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan also
seemed to help gold and silver. Speaking before the Senate Budget Committee, the Fed chief suggested that a
slowdown in growth, resulting from the deepening global economic crisis, should be sufficient to keep U.S.
inflation at bay.

The floor trader reported that stops were triggered in December silver as it moved through $5.01, before
eventually hitting a high for the session of $5.07. The buying was mixed, including funds and the trade, he
reported.

Gold futures may have been helped by a rise in the XAU index of stocks of gold companies, he added.

Rinehimer put resistance for December silver at $5.15, with support at $4.85. December gold is expected to find
resistance around $295, with support around $288.

Platinum and palladium have been on the defensive recently on indications that Russia has been conducting
more spot sales. Today, however, both managed gains, with October platinum adding $2.20 to $355.50 and
December palladium gaining $2.25 to $281.

"I think there was carryover buying interest from the rallies in the other metals," Rinehimer said.

He put support for October platinum at $350, with resistance around $365. Support for December palladium was
put at $275, with resistance around $295.

Check out PAASF - up an 1/8 on double normal volume. First sign of life in over a month. Does anyone know the details of the 1 million share day PAASF had a couple of weeks ago? I never did find out what happened.

I really, really doubt the wisdom of buying gold stocks at this time! I think a combination of physical gold and call options is a much, much better deal. Reasons:

1. The only way gold stocks can recover is when the price of gold ( POG ) rises substantially.

2. Even if the POG rises, many gold mines WILL NOT make any profit from it due to their forward selling of gold and gold put options.

3. Buying gold stocks does not increase gold demand but decrease it ( many non-profitable mines stay in business, financed by stock market money )

4. Buying physical gold DOES increase demand ( IMAGINE THAT ) .

5. Gold call options are so cheap that for $5000 you can have interest in 5000 or more ounces of gold ( depends on call price ) . If the gold-in-the-sky theories are correct, this $5000 will turn into several millions.

6. Combination physical/call options gives you a perfect, clean way to leverage your wealth preservation need vs. desire to speculate. Simply put what you cannot afford to loose into physical and what you can loose into options. No need to know inside info on mines etc.

7. Yes, yes. Gold traders were taking advantage of idiots like me for years and this is why call options are so cheap ( they got used to it and think it will be like that forever ) . They are quite reckless and will loose their pants eventually. If not this year, then the next. I will be there.

IT'S A DOUBLE WHAMMY for Julian Robertson Jr. and his $22 billion hedge-fund group, Tiger Management Corp.: Robertson recently told investors that the funds lost $600 million in August from Russian-denominated debt. But September's news is worse: Tiger lost 12.6%, or about $2 billion, between Aug. 28 and Sept. 8, according to performance figures for the offshore Jaguar fund, which mirrors the performance of all Tiger funds. It was one of the worst short-term declines in hedge fund history, dwarfing even the 9.7%--or $1 billion--George Soros' Quantum fund lost in August.

A Robertson spokesman declined to comment publicly on the reason for the drop. However sources close to the fund blamed a good part of the plunge on a bet on the dollar vs. the yen; the yen has climbed against the dollar in recent weeks. Most of the loss took place in early September.

The Tiger funds are down 9% this month, through Sept. 15. Despite the recent losses, Tiger is up 15.9% this year, after fees. It is now the largest hedge fund group, surpassing Soros' Quantum group.

Gary Weiss
EDITED BY JOAN OLECK

Copyright 1998, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.

Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 11:51
Pete ( ALL-repost-Everyone to a man scoffed at this prediction. Not
even one reply. ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Please reread item #3.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 23:53
Pete ( ALL-Dead cat bounce? ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even as bad as the drop has been the past week I think we have one more

leg up, possibly to 10,000 before the final implosion. I will try to
enumerate as follows:

( 1 ) Many have profits that would be subject to capital gains taxes of 20%

or more. The herd will not sell until their losses are substantially greater
than 20%.

( 2 ) The herd mentality will be to reenter the market at 7000+ as a buying
opportunity one last time because they have the mistaken belief that the
equity market is still viable.

( 3 ) The FRB will lower rates very soon because if they don't, they will
fear the consequences.this will give one more final breath of life to the
market.

( 4 ) Finally the pundits and media will be convincing the herd not to
panic, a fact that is apparent from surveys of the ignorent investors. This
will give the imputus to # ( 2 ) .

All of the above should occur within the next two months. Do not despair
for I believe this will be the last hurrah before the final meltdown. The
precious metals will shine as never before shortly thereafter. IMHO.

I for one have no empathy for greedy investors that expect 20%-30% gains

yearly forever. They will finally get what they rightfully deserve.

Gone fishing, not for good buys? but the real thing. BBML.

Read my last two posts on K2 to farfel. They corelate to this post in a
dramatic way. What the FRB is about to do is a defacto devaluation of the
dollar. The flood of shorts to cover will explode the price of gold, all
commodities including oil, as the dollar begins its collapse. Will this
scenario validate ANOTHER'S THOUGHTS? I think so. IMHO.

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT PUETZ IS A LITTLE LATE BUT RIGHT ON? WILL THE ADVENT OF THE ECU IN JAN 99 PLUS Y2K BE THE FINAL NAILS IN THE COFFIN? GIVE ME +/- 2 MONTHS LEWAY-ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY!

Scene 1, Act 111

Best wishes to all-You too LGB

Pete

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 23

-- TOTALS
Gold 924,724 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 74,813,744 - 1,135,464 troy ounces
Copper 62,539 + 955 short tons

Many people here ( including me ) make predictions occasional regarding the price changes in precious metals, the DOW, etc. Wouldn't it be nice if there was a place where such predictions could be entered into a chart for everyone to reference?

It could appear something like this:
Date Poster Item Change Timing Result
1/20/98 RJ Gold Bottom near $280 Jan 98 Bottom @ $278
9/2/98 Putz DOW Down below 3000 Mid Sep 98 DOW over 7000
9/23/98 J DOW Above 5000 Jan 99 ?
etc...

Perhaps somone could come up with a way to keep score. The more specific the prediction, the more points it is worth ( with negative points for oposite outcomes ) .

Just a thought.

Petronius, for those of us who have never entered into the brave new world of call options, could you explain how you bought yours and the strategy involved. How do you keep from losing your investment with options. What about futures in gold?
Dennis

Kick butt! Wow, like I said, the bear is dead! Good 250 pt rally there, up to about 8150 or there'bouts. Last half hour looks like a rocket ship taking off for Jupiter. Hehe. The world is back to normal, time to buy stocks left and right, they're so under-valued right now, and everyone is piling back into the market finally. The correction is over, let's get back in the boat and row for the clouds. Oh damn, I still forgot to sell my short position, I'll have to remember to do that before we get back to 9000.

TOTAL REGISTERED
40,029,695 0 891,802 -891,802 0 39,137,893
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
35,919,513 1,000 244,662 -243,662 0 35,675,851
COMBINED TOTAL
75,949,208 1,000 1,136,464 -1,135,464 0 74,813,744
********************************************************************
891K REMOVED FROM REGISTERED.
243K REMOVED FROM ELIGIBLE.
1,135,464 OZ'S REMOVED FROM TOTALS
********************************************************************
Not bad! Now we'll have to see how the markets react tomorrow! Any
guesses??? TIA Fox-man

Petr. I like your reasoning of gold calls versus gold stocks, obviously the downside risk of paper collapse is in both stocks and call options equally.
And with gold calls you get huge leverage...and influence the market ( in your own little way ) .
Are there any gold call mutual funds?...Perhaps we could get a Kitco one started...using a near the money gold call strategy...re-investing base capital into more near the money calls at specified rise points and paying out profits along the way.

INDEX OPEN CLOSE %CHG CHG
DOW 7897.20 8154.41 3.26% 257.21
XAU 64.98 69.29 6.63% 4.31
NOTE XAU is measured from prior close.

Kitco Gold Call Mutual Fund...Now that's a Mutual Fund I'd buy!

September 23, 1998
Taiwan, China Edge Closer
BEIJING, CHINA,23-SEP-1998: China's Zhang Jing cheng, right,gestures at the media to leave while his Taiwanese counterpart Shi Hwei-yow looks
the other way prior to their formal meeting Wednesday, Sept. 23, 1998 at a hotel in Beijing. The two leaders met for the first time in three years to pave the way for reunification talks..."

mmmh, let's see: Jiang wants Tokyo closer to Beijing than Washington; Taiwan reapproachment...

CageRattler@LTCM Faber says 13 of 17 banks pony up for 3.2bn, equity
wipe-out, Fed 'nuturing' deal ( one of the principals old Fed hand )

Greenspan acknowledged that so far the there had not been a major drag on the U.S. economy from the crisis abroad and noted the job market was still strong.

Greenspan Signals Fed May Cut U.S. Rates
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980923/bs/greenspan_9.html

U.S. Stocks Buoyed By Fed Chief's Comments
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980923/bs/stocks_398.html

Poll: one-third of Russians say dictatorship only solution
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0923/i_ap_0923_81.sml

"Dirty Dozen"..
to all ..
Big Nelson just came out big for WJC .. this puts
Slick in good company .. Arafat Castro Ghaddafi and
oh yeah Laurent Kabila.
Mandela is almost ALWAYS wrong .. this is support
that Slick doesnt need.
How about a trade .. Slick for Big Nellie .. Nellie
is honest friendly looking and stupid .. We can throw
in Tito Mboweni for Greasepan .. Ok maybe a left handed
relief pitcher too .. a utility infielder .. any
interest ??? .. a few rugby players to sweeten the deal ??
.. how about it ??

There is a fellow named J. Orlin Grabbe who has at the very least a colorful reputation on the web. He writes what are at times, lucid and very educational articles, and what are at other times interesting if hard to agree with articles.

Anyway he has written a series of articles on gold that are very good, one of which covers options. For his article on options, try
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold6.htm

For his other articles on gold just replace the 6 with a 1 through a 5. His article on the LBMA was very educational for me.

Will

IMHO a very negative day. 1. Short covering rally due to Greenspan effect ( Interest rate
drop either already anticipated or disappointment if not implemented. ) 2.Todays rally a
climax to recent UP days on Dow. 3. Why are Golds so strong? 4 .New Lows still
negative to new His .5. Asia:hurting Russia: hurting S.America:Hurting. New York:
Overbought territory. The next Big move on Dow is DOWN.IMHO. Keep going Gold!

selling short on Mon. maybe even Fri. And if he does'nt ease the mkt will really collapse. A can't lose win-win situation. Oh Oh, I'm starting to sound like Peutz.

December call options are still cheap.

Uncle Alan says the global economy looks like crap, and everyone must buy. The dow closing at the high is just touching the down trendline from July top. This could prove resistance, look for the dow to head lower over the next 2 weeks, especially if Uncle Alan doesn't lower rates as the media would have us believe.

The dollar is on very shaky footing. A lowering of interest rates could spur the Yen-carry trade to unwind. Thus a rate drop would likely be a concerted effort with key European countries. The rate cut probably won't happen until after stocks break down.

As to Puetz' prediction of 55 days after the high, maybe he should look at 110 days as this market is lasting twice as long as the 1920's bull market.

In 1920 commodity prices peaked, the easy money that followed created the bubble of the 20's lasting 9 years.

We could also say that many commodities peaked in 1980, followed by 18 years of disinflation and bull market.

You may have got the wron g idea from one of Squirrel's posts. This is not a cottage industry. We deal with 3 mints who have the gold and the capacity to mint quality coins. There is the Canadian, the NZ and the Australian mints who can produce professional coins. If you would like to know more about this, please email me at cdevoto@abts.net thanx, Charlie

Then watch for the old quarterback sneek...back to 6000 later on
next month.

AG and RR have never met a bank they wouldn't try to bail out

I just heard on the radio that the U.S. Congress has awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor to Big Nelson.
As usual you are on to something. - Perhaps we will swap, and get a genuine war hero now.

As far as the SGOLY, I did get some, and tried for more, but the price doesn't quite get to my bid. There was an order filled lower than my bid price today, but for 100 shares only. My order was 3000, then I went to 2000 to try to get filled. The blocks of SGOLY are usually 1000 or less, hence the difficulty.
I get end of day prices each trading day from Business Day by e-mail. I see that St. Helena is thin there too. 9,000,000 total shares.

For those looking for "in depth information" on USA Stock and Futures brokers try this site. Has info on cost, which ones take penny stocks, best day trading brokers and which ones sell Canadian stocks as well as what to watch out for.

http://www.sonic.net/donaldj/

I am not connected with the site and recomend you research other sites also.

First of all:

1. Gold options and futures are NOT investments. They are wild bets ( not much different than betting on a horse ) . Options are better if you have a life beyond speculation ( you can loose your pants and more if you have open futures positions and do not give them 10+ hour attention every day ) .

2. Physical gold is NOT investment either. It is first and foremost safest store of value. In time of peace and economic progress, keeping gold is like burying money in a pot in your backyard ( quite stupid ) . In times of trouble, it is the only wealth that lasts through anything.

Therefore, everything really depends on your perceptions on what is going to happen in the next couple of years.

If you put some money into gold call options with strike price say $50 above the current spot, you will loose it all if the spot price never gets there. Suppose the theories about dramatic rise of gold are correct.

Example: you spent $100 on one call contract ( 100 oz ) on gold with strike price $50 above current spot. Approximate results:

1. If the price rises $60, your option is worth $1000
2. If the price rises $70, your option is worth $2000
3. If the price rises $100, your option is worth $10000

But if gold does not rise $50 you loose your $100. ( Just like betting on a horse ) .

I have assumed that if somebody were to buy gold stocks now, it would be out of belief that the prce of gold will rise soon. Gold stocks are devastated by the decline in price of physical gold ( most of them ) .

I simply proposed that a combination of gold call options and physical gold ( at the ration that suits your risk vs. reward ratio ) is much better bet than buying interest in dying gold mines.

What is more, if you buy gold stocks you DEPRESS the price of gold since you put money into expanding the gold supply ( therefore you defeat your own hopes ) .

If you were to buy some physical gold, you SUPPORT the price of gold, and help fulfill your scenario. ( Yes I know, many mines support themselves by SELLING call options -- this is another reason NOT to buy their stocks ) .

Please note also that buying expensive PUT options on stock indexes for reasons other than constantly buying and selling them ( taking advantage of market swings ) gives you much lesser chance of success since the governments almost always try to REFLATE money supply ( print more paper debt ) when there is a posibility of deflation and stock crash. ( See Alan Greenspan comments )

Use gold weekly or monthly if you want to be sure of the bull. http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/menu.phtmlor use this gold chart http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgold.html

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/menu.phtml

Global Intelligence Update Red Alert September 23, 1998

Two African Crises Merge... With U.S. Help
On September 19, the Secretary General of the Political Department of Sudan's National Congress, Muhammad al-Hasan al-Amin, announced that Khartoum had received a document from the U.S., charging Sudan with continuing to support the terrorist groups of Osama Bin Laden, who were planning additional attacks on U.S. interests. According to Amin, the document said that the U.S. would hold Sudan responsible for any further attacks against U.S. citizens and interests, anywhere in the world. On September 20, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced that the U.S.government had sent Khartoum an unsigned document, threatening to attack other targets in Sudan. Bashir said Sudan "would welcome this second strike, and it would not file a complaint with the Security Council, because it would retaliate." He said Sudan's reaction "would be painful."

"It is questionable whether even the Clinton administration would resort to the crude tactic of sending unsigned, unheaded threats to Khartoum. But increased U.S. involvement in Ethiopia and support for Uganda, apparently as part of a plan to facilitate a new Sudanese rebel offensive, is evident. These new U.S. efforts against Sudan, following the now-questioned attack o n the Shifa chemical plant, demonstrate a renewed commitment by Washington to topple the regime in Khartoum. The Shifa attack was but a first step. However, contributing to the potential formation of a battlefield stretching from Luanda to Asmara is a dangerous game. We hope it's worth it."

From the Arabia.com
Taleban Deploys Missles on border with Iran
http://www.arabia.com/content/news/9_98/Taleban-Iran.23.9.98.shtml

Europe Fears For US Democracy
"An orgy of self-destruction", "the suicide of a democracy" and "a bomb attack on the office of the president" were images editorials used to describe the wider effects of the wholesale release of videos and documents in the Monica Lewinsky scandal."
COMMENT: Somehow, this story doesn't quite 'compute'
http://arol.arabia.com/content/news/9_98/Cover.22.9.98.shtml

Egypt: Israel Must Be Punished
CAIRO ( AFP ) -- Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Mussa has urged the international community to impose sanctions on Israel for failing to meet its engagements in the Middle East peace process.
http://www.arabia.com/content/news/9_98/Egypt-Israel.22.9.98.shtml

Never let it burst, keep inflating it. Why didn't I think of that?

Typical action today. Gold jumps and gold stocks surge just after you issue another ultra bearish forecast. Your gold anlysis is as far out and off base as Puetz's stock market analysis. I doubt gold will break over $300 anytime soon, but there is a much greater chance of this than a drop to $225. RJ and Realistic have it right. Basing action for awhile, then a big jump in 1999.

$225 POG means a global depression including right here in the US. No way will the powers that be allow this to happen even if they have to inflate like mad.

As far as a bet you said that POG is going down to $225. I will bet you that spot POG will not trade at this level over the next year.

On the oil threads, those predicting $8 crude a few months ago ago have changed their tune. A word to the wise.

At the risk of oversimplifying, let me suggest that the productivity of mankind can be classified into one of two possible categories--goods or services. Understand that by "goods" I refer to the production of real things that are useful and have value. These goods may also be called commodities, which is the term I shall use throughout. Some commodities endure, while others are consumed. Commodities find their value through their utility in one or several functions...industry, construction, energy production, food production, etc. Gold is indeed a commodity with many uses, but it finds its largest value for its role in commerce. In fact, its unique suitability for this role in commerce ( as money ) raises its value so high that it precludes its usage in other functions to the point of luxury.

Modern technology ( such as e-gold ( tm ) ) allows gold to be easily subdivided and transferred among accounts in the course of commerce and daily transactions. Quantity is simply not an issue in that scenario. But, if it were insisted by the population that the money be in a physical form convenient for transactions, gold coins would not fit the bill. Even the smallest gold coin would have a value too high for the purpose. A proxy would be necessary.

If the "Powers" that issue the proxy currency could be trusted not to issue currency in excess of the established ratio with gold held in reserves, then this proxy currency need not have any intrinsic value of its own. They are essentially warehouse receipts for X amount of gold held by the issuing entity.

You might imply, perhaps rightly so, that the issuing entities ( governments or central banks ) are not trustworthy, and therefore the currency DOES need to have intrinsic value. And as I have just discussed the shortcoming of using gold in hand-to-hand transactions, you might suggest that silver would fit the bill. Several problems present themselves.

Due to the size of the global money demand, any formal role of silver in commerce would dictate its value as a commodity in a manner similar to my earlier discussion of gold. Use of silver for industrial or manufacturing purposes would also become something of a luxury. And even the smallest silver coin, when properly valued as a money-commodity, would likely have too large a value to facilitate small transactions.

So, perhaps now the need arises to include copper as a monetary commodity. And with so much copper available, and its importance as an industrial commodity, I hope you can start to appreciate the difficulty in establishing what the "proper" ratio should be between the metals such that X copper equals Y silver equals Z gold. Due to the fluctuating value of copper for industrial use, and perhaps likewise for silver, their relative values must be allowed to float over time, which would undermine a weight-based monetary system--whether it be bi- or tri-metallic. This is where Gresham's law will take over and upset the system.

Also, it would not be prudent to unnecessarily 'raise the price' on important industrial commodities such as copper and silver by formally linking them into a system to play a role as a monetary commodity. Better to avoid the difficulties and let gold shoulder that burden alone.
There are more people alive today than the sum total of all who walked the earth before us. Think about the logistical problems that creates that did not exist before. We cannot simply return to a system of commerce where the hand-to-hand money has intrinsic value. But what we can do, SHOULD do, WILL do, is move to a system wherein the hand-to-hand currencies represent, reliably, X amount of gold on reserve, payable on demand. When the day arrives that people en masse see the true nature of a fiat currency, arbitrage opportunities will be exploited through purchasing gold on the open market until its value equals that of the money supply divided by the gold reserve in the treasury. Or as you might suggest, this could happen sooner, driven by the likes of Soros and company.

got gold?

Looks like three are about to be separated from their money.

"Influence the market"

"Turn $5,000 into several millions"

"Only way gold stocks recover is the POG rises substantially" and
I suppose you make your millions in options in a flat gold market?

"Gold traders were taking advantage of me for years"

"How do I prevent losing my investment in options, what about futures?"

Wow, the option writers aren't going to be able to sleep tonight!

Can we depend on a little 'tea-break' like that every afternoon, about fourish? Thank you! {:- )

picture for all of you here at Kitco and I cannot figure this out...not that bright...but I do not have to tell all of you that...if I send this photograph to one of you could you please post it...it really is magnificent...

A market may move instantaneously in response to information. It may move prices rationally in a short-term perspective but irrationally in a long-term perspective. Greenspan said today that global instability is threatening to stall the US economy, requiring an increase in liquidity. That's a drastic measure to delay or perhaps prevent a malifluous deflationary process from degenerating into long-term calamity. The market focuses on the short-term benefit exclusively, ignoring the highly unusual long-term risk that Greenspan referred to as the justification for the rate decrease. As with all manias, eventually tomorrow comes. For Japan, tomorrow has taken 10 years. But as you drop interest rates to squeeze the last few dollars out you approach zero and the end of the road.
-EJ

XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-09-23
ABX-Barrick Gold-------CLOSED AT $19.0000 1.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.30
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $07.5625 0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.20
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.3125 0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.33
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $06.0625 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.05
FCX-Freeport Mc-------CLOSED AT $12.5625 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.29
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $14.5000 1.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.10
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.3125 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.07
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $11.1875 0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.30
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $20.6250 1.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.70
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $13.3125 1.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.92

XAU CLOSED AT 69.29 4.31

may go to bonds and treasuries. The gov. wants the money in the stock market to prop business. Corporate WELFARE.Lowering interest means money will head to stock market for good gains. Is this logic faulty? I tend to try and over- simplify things. Give me a blast if I am totally out of it. i need my reality affirmed.

What I really SAID was:

"Yes, yes. Gold traders were taking advantage of idiots like me for years and this is why call options are so cheap ( they got used to it and think it will be like that forever ) . They are quite reckless and will loose their pants eventually. If not this year, then the next. I will be there. "

I have NEVER put money into gold options that I could not afford to loose. I do break even however, by participating in other markets ( oil, wheat, corn, cotton ) . All this is still a side-occupation since I make ~$200K as a computer consultant.

Why did I do it then? Why put money on a dead horse?

Well, you see I consider US to be a dead horse. All pretense, no substance, a paper tiger. EVERYTHING that used to make US great is dead. There is no law here. Majority of people are brain-dead followers. Empty shells bred solely for maintaining the big government.

See, I am a position trader ( know what it is? ) -- hedging myself for something that I consider imminent - a fall of the financial fraud called the US Dollar.

I do admit, I under-estimated Japanese desire to commit suicide rather than expose the fraud of the US dollar. Yes, I did pay for it - but guess what: I will get it back. The Japanese can reverse the cards at any time by simply selling US paper that they swim in. This is why US WILL do EVERYTHING they ask. AG WILL lower interest rates at their next meeting. Nothing will stop the hurricane though.


p.s. How many gold calls did you write?! Do you know any copper traders from Summitomo?

was exactly a 50% retracement from the recent low back up to the all-time highs. The Dow retraced exactly 38%. How do you feel about
your $1070 - $1075 short???????

I notice that the Globex hasn't even managed a 38% retracement tonight,
seems no one wants to buy so close to the 50% line.......

Do not dismiss his comments...if the bond market is strong in march of 99 gold may well be at $225.

Suggest you all keep an eye on that there market. Also gold @ $225 says a whole lot about AG having waited and ending up pushing on a string.

Inflate, inflate...don't bet on it. Watch for debt defaults and contraction of the worlds money supply. Maybe yes, maybe no.

Tom

That site looks like it'll do it. I tried the "weekly" and was surprised that we're looking good.
Thanks for the assistance.

Highhopes

Are there any political problems in South Africa ?

And strenght? After all...in the past tense or present tense.

"Senior officials of government departments and units that fail to solve the bug promptly and create huge losses and serious consequences will be investigated," it said. The edict did not specify possible punishments.

China sets Y2K deadlines
http://www.news.com/News/Item/Textonly/0,25,26728,00.html?pfv

As for your request of similar postings daily around four-ish...well, you ask for too much! "Capt'n, I've given 'er all I've got! I 'avn't a ounce o' strength lef' in me!"

( glad you liked it )
Aye, got gold?

Greenspan made most everyone happy today, even the XAU made a big jump.
I still see lower earnings pushing the market down, irregardless of the lower rates.
It will take a miracle to reverse the never ending balance of trade deficits and a lower dollar will not help because we been producing less things and more services for years.
A lower dollar and indecisive to falling markets should help gold, but those contolling the system will still manipulate its price to achieve their NWO.
I still think that they will let the air out of the market slowly, so US resident purchases of Treasuries will make up for foreign sales of same. All to be paid for by an increasing budget deficit and counteracting taxes,

I understand that the SA Rand was up -vs- the USD and that accounts for the fact that the SA shares did not move on US markets..

This bothers me ( I think ) ....if the USD were to collapse vis-a-vis world currencies ( a la ANOTHER ) ...WOULD THE US PRICE OF SA SHARES GO DOWN??? Further, even if the price of AU in USD went up, but the USD went down ... would the price of SA Mining Shares go up in USD??

Confused...who's confused ..??

How about it John Disney...

BillD

You complain no one paid any attention to your Monday Aug 31 23:53 post, now reposted today 15:59. I read it then and again now and was impressed both times - you're thinking and doing good stuff. Keep it up. Not everyone who reads things feels they need to answer the post - some just absorb and enjoy. Thanks.

Dow/Gold Ratio 28.12. The 233 day moving average is 28.54. We have closed below the 233 for the 17th consecutive trading day.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .239. The 233 day moving average is .249

Dent,

On options and futures:

I didnt learn much ( am still a beginner ) without putting real money at risk, but try paper trading first.

If you must jump in right away, open an options cash account not a margin account.

Only BUY calls or puts to enter a position.

Realize that most options expire worthless.

Most importantly, buy really low-priced options at first, like $60-70 total including commission.

Good luck!

Sorry for the offtopic, but did anyone notice that when WJC said, "It depends what IS is" he had an eerie ressemblence to Butthead. I am referring to the episode when Klinton visited Highland High and Butthead was testing the microphone: 1, 2, 3?

I bet Klinton has seen that episode.

Obtaining .9999 Gold? Just order some from Bart.
http://www.kitco.com/gold.sellbar.html
Whether by bar, coin or grain - he'll sell you .9999 Gold.
This dispenses with all the acid & caustics and lab stuff.

Minting - getting the dies made is an expense.
But you could just get a set of number punches and stamp your slugs.
Regarding purity -
only Gold and the other PGMs have densities in that range
{uranium and plutonium do too but I wouldn't worry about 'em
and tungsten is too darn hard for even pros to make coins out of!}

Sure I'd accept somebodies slugs without pause - well almost without -
I'd drop 'em in a fine graduated cylinder or other precision glassware
to get their volume and then weigh them. Anything close to 19 grams/cc is close enough.

With a quad beam scale good to .01 grams I will accept gold grain and gold dust for trade any day. Ohaus makes one.
But small gold coins would be a lot easier to deal with - even if they were 5 grains each with some kind of weight and purity mark on 'em.

If a credible mint mark is required it is NOT that hard to find mint to do them for us - if we, as enthusiastic die-hard Goldbugs looking for ways to invest our Gold to make money, ponied up a few hundred ounces for a mint run big enough to bring the price down to a reasonable level.

I am sometimes exasperated with those {not directed at you} who talk about Gold backed money and decry the fact that Gold is no longer coined for circulation - when DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT is something we Kitcoites can do THIS YEAR and the details are an e-mail away at swyers@amigo.net or cdevoto@abts.net

IF WE WANT SOMETHING DONE RIGHT, WE MUST DO IT OURSELVES!
Isn't that the spirit of entrepreneurship?
Those who only want to bet on sure things should play with something else. {Again, I am not picking on you, but just the naysayers.}

Tom

I just checked the chart of gold vs. SA Rand - looks like gold has been going DOWN in terms of Rand since July. Hmmmmmmm.....

it really is an amazing photograph...Namaste'

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bib.html

comparable to a rate INCREASE everywhere else?

Beware the law of unintentional consequences.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bak.html

Kevan, I can post it where ever you want, send e-mail

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/8x.html

gulps and puffs to ya from the Island that is Long...on the way...yup...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bdz.html

You never reach zero.

Here, again.

( Total Debt ) X ( Average Interest Rate ) = Konstant

Work some numbers. Set K = 1.

( 1 ) X ( 1 ) = 1
( 10 ) X ( .10 ) = 1
( 100 ) X ( .001 ) = 1

As long as investors are willing to accept ever-decreasing returns,
the bubble can continue. And actually, if Greenspan can get total
interest paid = net increase in goods & services, they could
theoretically keep the bubble in place. Just hovering, waiting,
like a black helicopter.

I can see now how Japan managed to last almost ten years. They've
had $8-10 trillion at under 1%. If the economy has a net gain
of 2 or 3%, and the real return on stocks is under 1%, you get
a balanced equation ----

Net return on bonds + Net return on stocks = net growth in economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bfr.html

The new york fed is trying to sell merriweathers hedge fund

What will be left in 30 days when G7 meets ( after their elaborate lunch
and before the scrumptious dinner ) ?

In the first fifteen minutes of program, Art reads a letter sent in by a retired military officer. It seems that the government sent out out a blanket form asking retired personel to return to the workforce to help with Y2K repair.

http://ww2.broadcast.com/artbell/archive98.html#sept98

He needs to sell a hedge fund

It won't be the jumbo shrimp thats for sure. I am trying to search for reasons why the Dow went up 250 points and all I am able to find is reasons why it should go down. Please pass the caviar.

Sept. 16, 1998

"A Policymaker Confronts Uncertainty"

Remarks by

William Poole

President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

http://www.stls.frb.org/general/speeches/980916.html

Things were up today.

The story has been a few months unfolding, but it is unfolding pretty much on track.

As you recall, several months ago we discussed how the Fed was doing at flying it's financial plane. The Fed had held back on raising rates even though it appeared financial crises was brewing in Asia and that the Clinton escapades were not likely to just go away ( little did we know! ) .

Having failed to raise rates and slow the expanding bull bubble before it overheated the Fed's only chance to prevent stalling out and achieve a soft landing was to let the big bird nose over into a dive and gain some airspeed. If they raised rates, the economy would go down too fast. If they lowered rates too soon the markets would overinflate and crash. If they lowered rates too late the global situation would pull the US into severe recession. The timing would have to be superb. At that time I had my doubts.

High real interest rates relative to various other countries whose economies were faltering had led to the asian ( and others ) situation to begin with.

As Japan ran into deeper trouble it became apparent that the US would not intervene in any significant way to support the yen ( although there was one coordinated intervention at a critical moment to buy some time before Japanese re-elections ) .

Greenspans remarks until recently made it appear that even though the Fed had become more aware that the global crises shaping up was becoming a global catastrophe, the Fed was more interested in protecting the US economy and the dollar than in easing rates, just as there had been seemingly little concern for the plight of the Japanese.

Now it appears is the time. The markets have descended considerably, the economy is slowing, and will continue to slow even with lowered rates, but the Fed now acknowledges that a global recession/depression is not good for the US. They are indeed making a strong statement that we are very near time to add some throttle and pull back on the stick.

To be sure, there are still flak bursts all around. Poof! there goes Russia. Boom! there goes South america. We will continue to see bad news crop up. This is to be expected, and will be discounted.

The Fed is good. Very very good. My hat is off to their pilot.

And that is why the markets were up today.

http://www.russiatoday.com:80/rtoday/business/news/98091712.html

There are many more advanced strategies with gold ( and not only gold ) options, then simply buy deep out-of-money calls and wait for the miracle. For example, one can buy simultaneously calls and puts with the same strike, close to current POG and then wait. It does not matter in this case, where it goes, up or down, if it goes anywhere, you win. That is called straddle. There are much more - strangle, time spread, ratio spread, butterfly Its not gambling then, its a tool to make money

Intermin Resources NL

Obviously not the people making the 1-3%!

Do I see storm clouds ?

Yup. The timing on Greenspan's comments is remarkable. First, the hint
before Labor Day, in order to prop up stuff at a critical time. And
now today.

Anybody know anything about the original flying wedge plane? From the
late 50s or so? They couldn't get them to work reliable because the
the feedback loop between the pilot and performance was too long. The
pilot couldn't consistently make changes in time to react to wind
currents, etc.

Althought I haven't seen it for myself, I have a friend that worked on
the B-2, and now works on the X-29 for Nasa. Like, everything is
computer automated and interpreted. So, even though they may be
unstable platforms, the computer is reacting so damn fast to changes
that it doesn't matter.

I think that Greenspan has one whopper of a computer simulation of the
U.S. and world economy. And I think he's practically getting real-
time feedback on possible actions and their impact.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bdm.html

"The Ark was built by amateurs, the Titanic by experts...don't wait for the experts!" - from this website

http://www.rarebooks.net/beck/

This website has some info on alternative medicine including colloidal silver, zappers, etc. Might be good for Y2K preparations.

minutes lately the market seems to go up. easy money

RE: What would happen if the USD crashed vs the SA Rand...what would happen to the USD price of SA mining shares...

It seems that one would own shares in an asset that is increasing in value vis-a-vis the USD...and that the value of the stock in the SA mining co would INCREASE...??

I bring this subject up...because this is a very likely scenario given the USD problems and the proclivity of some us to buy SA mining shares....

Confused .. who's confused...

During the days of the great bull market, it became profitable to lease gold at low lease rates, sell it for cash, and invest the cash at high real interest rates.

During the days of the misguided ( continueing ) Japanese attempt to stimulate their economy by lowering Japanes rates, it became profitable to borrow at low rates in Japan and invest the cash ( after converting the yen into dollars ) in the US.

During the days of global catastrophe foreign flight money found safety in US securities.

As the tiem approaches that the Fed will be lowering rates speculative money is also Jumping into securities.

If rates are indeed raised, there will be a great raising of prices and windfall for those so invested.

Then will come the exodus. Securites will be turned back into cash. More cash suddenly flooding the market place means inflation in wages, goods, and services.

And that is why the metals are up.

I am only a messanger in this case. Hope not.

Not looking good............

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/

We pay Greenspan to protect the US economy. If that means propping up the dollar, then that's what should be done. If it means letting the stock market take a fall, then that's what should be done.

There comes a time that continueing to place the strength of the US dollar above all else becomes counter productive.

Lowering rates will weaken the dollar ( if readjusting it's valuation from too inflated a level can be said to weaken it ) . Failing to lower rates relative to the rest of the globe will bring the global economy to a standstill, promote great enmity among allies, friends and enemies alike, and eventually bring everyone including the US into the depths of depression.

So yes, not everything was up today.

And that's good.

Maybe just maybe the word is getting out----YES

APH - Great call AND timing on the Silver, no ones always right but as I keep telling these yahoos you're the closest I've seen!
Delphi - I know a little and you seem to know a lot. How about giving us all some lessons with real life examples. I'm sure that there are a few others around here, besides me, who would like to learn the art of printing money ( convertible into Gold of course! ) .
Who Cares? - I briefly mentioned this scenario here about two years ago. Let's face it it only makes common sense. You know it, I know it, and everyone else must like shouting themselves in the foot to take the opposite side of THIS scenario:
"I think that Greenspan has one whopper of a computer simulation of the
U.S. and world economy. And I think he's practically getting real-time feedback on possible actions and their impact.

Thanx gentlemen for the info re brokers. I'll check them out, Charlie

And now there will be a MAJOR problem, if AG doesn't come through on Tuesday as promised.

. Dec gold settled up $2.00 at $292.50 per ounce after a 2-day high
of $292.70.

"Greenspan's comments undercut the dollar and helped push gold and
silver higher," said James Steel, analyst at Refco, noting that both metals
had been oversold in the short term.
In his remarks to the Senate Budget Committee, Greenspan fueled further
expectations for an interest rate cut in the near future.
While impetus for gold and silver's climb was primarily the negative
effect of Greenspan's comments on the dollar, an interest rate cut would be
received as a positive for precious metals in its own right because it
reduces costs of holding precious metals, said market observers. "It's
doubly positive for precious metals," commented Steel.
"The only conflicting thing is that if it resuscitates the world
economy and stocks do better, it could reduce the flight-to-quality
aspect," he said, referring to gold's use as a safe haven in times of
economic and political crisis.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

HUH!???????

Gold is now a " flight to quality " since he thinks the markets will go up?Seems it was a " barbaric relic " when the market was going down and noone were buying!

Gold was being sold all over the world because their their economies were a disaster...yadda yada........but it now will be sold because their markets and economies may resuscitate!!?????

This CNN Bridge News and this Refco outfit should be investigated for market manipulation boys and girls.I knew as soon as things look as if they may change, they would alter the analysis to fit their position again.Problem for them this time is folks like myself have copies of all of these statements and could present it openly.

They had better watch their butts.Many people like myself are growing weary of the posible disinformation and manipulation coming out of these channels.

I guess the big surge in Gold buying in the US is being ignored too?Bad for business to have gold go up too soon,since the brokers want to get all the gold they can for their " Crients " under 300US$?

Where is Farfel when you need him?He showed EXACTLY the manipulative diatribe that was being presented and those in the know couldn't handle the truth being presented here.Too bad.I miss him.Long live the truth and the internet.

Tom

Be sad, gold dudes.

Actually, I think that's exactly what they do do. They have a big matrix model of the economy. They can change one little varaible like the cost of leather or butter or bonds or gold. They can calculate ( simulate ) the impact on all the thousands of other variables.

They can simulate the time lag between adjusting a va;ue at one end and the desired result at the other end.

They are constantly adjusting coefficients and modeling algorithmns to fine tune the matrix as new events and new data become available.

Not too many tears ago it would not have been possible. Now it's almost routine.

to the SA rand translates into a 50% cost benefit to the mines.
If the spot POG rises on the other hand, the SA mines reap 100%
of the benefit. This is because although the mines pay wages in
SA rand, they buy equipment made in the US, and this of course
becomes more expensive with a rising dollar and visa versa.

went up. It's almost like the Greenspan thing today formally announced that the " gig is up".To me Greenspan announced with neon lights on his forehead to hang on to the end of the rope... here is a knot, but not a tight one. It's like gold did what it was supposed to an the market reacted like it wasn't supposed to. Almost like the wires were crossed or like every other danged metaphor I can think of .

We WANT the Asian situation to to brighten,since most analysts attributed much of Gold's demise to the poor economic conditions there.Remember...DUDE?

I think the question was the converse...what happens to the price of SA mining stocks if the Rand APPRECIATES vs the dollar.

Note my previous post - the price of gold in terms of Rand has been DECLINING since summer. Profits have peaked unless the price of gold rises faster than the Rand rises.

A very severe problem indeed. Yes, indeedy. I do put the odds at about four to one that they will, though.

You only want Asia to "brighten" if you believe inflation
is coming. I sure don't. All they've done is prolong
the bubble awhile longer. Which is about what I expected
anyway. The only way gold is going to really go up is
when the dominoes start falling, and that is not likely
until Japanese banks go under. In order to go under,
we need to see some real declines on the Nikkei.

address duly noted and changed with proper spelling of name...also the photo was a gift from Reify to all here at Kitco...bbl...going to put the rest of the kit car together...what a mochine...great neighbors...yup...and I wish all of you could scent the air here on the Island that is Long as Fall descends upon us...cable knit sweater weather...delicious...scrumpious...yowzer!!!

Oh, I do't know. It all kind of makes sense to me ( 20:05 and 19:48 ) , but then I sometimes trust politicans too.

Sorry I simplified the options topic! This was not my intention to say the only way to trade options is to buy deep-out-of-money calls or puts.

The sole purpose of my posts today was to show that instead of buying gold stocks ( with all the unknown exposure to forward selling and option writing ) one can simply get a combination physical gold + some deep-out-of-money gold call options and achieve ( in my opinion ) much better chance of return. The ratio between the two can be selected to suit individual taste in the safety vs. wild speculation department. Most people who do not trade professionally seem to prefer stocks because they seem to be simpler.

I am sorry, but no matter what option/future strategy you use, it is always gambling of sorts. To simplify your straddle example: You buy June99 300 call and June99 290 put. It will cost you about$2000. To break even, at the moment you liquidate your straddle position the price of June gold must ( generally ) be either below 280 or above 310 right? ( I am again simplifying the subject and example ) .

Therefore, rather than betting that the POG rises, you bet that it will be volatile enough to breach the range. Much more probable ( most of the time ) than making money on $50 rise, but still gambling of sorts. Also, to make your gains real you have to be happy with several hundred dollars gain for risking $2000 and dedicating a LOT of time to it.

Buy the way, I did buy some out-of-money calls recently and they doubled in price. Not bad for two weeks of doing nothing! When I have nothing better to do I do play more complex commodities games, but when I do, I simply let the call options sit there to satisfy my paranoia about coming demise of US dollar.

Somehow double election of Arkansas Billy to the White House and Yahoo reaching $10 Billion market cap without having any assets or income does not make me too confident about US future. Strange, isn't it?

This morning you mentioned the Japanese/American missle defense plans. Here is the fleet list for Japan.
http://www.uss-salem.org/worldnav/asiapac/japan.htm

Note the Aegis AAW systems under the Kongo class destroyers. This system is the same one used on American cruisers and can shoot down most incoming missles.

We may give them this missle: http://www.raytheon.com/res/naval_stand_block4.html

and they could shoot down even the ballistic missles N.K. has.

the Rand rises relative to the USD, then SA mining shares should
fall based on falling profits based on increased costs in wages.
If the Rand falls relative to the USD, as it did in early summer,
the SA mines reap about 50% of the benefit re exchange.
But if the spot POG goes up, then of course, SA mining shares
should benefit, as this goes right to the bottom line.

Nobody has commented on the effects of the decline of the CAN$
on Canadian mine profits. This exchange windfall has probably
kept such high cost operations as Royal Oak from going under.

One and one are two two and two make four four and four are eight eight and eight are sixteen sixteen and sixteen are thirty two la la la...Goonight!

the Rand rises relative to the USD, then SA mining shares should
fall based on falling profits based on increased costs in wages.
If the Rand falls relative to the USD, as it did in early summer,
the SA mines reap about 50% of the benefit re exchange.
But if the spot POG goes up, then of course, SA mining shares
should benefit, as this goes right to the bottom line.

Nobody has commented on the effects of the decline of the CAN$
on Canadian mine profits. This exchange windfall has probably
kept such high cost operations as Royal Oak from going under.
Note: Royal Oak is totally unhedged, so are probably only alive
based on the exchange savings, given the depressed gold situation.
On the other hand, RYO stands to maximize its benefit from a rise
in POG.

Well that was the thinking touted here last year by the dome and gloomers saying Gold will EXPLODE! with the great tsunami coming our way.BZZZZZZZT!Gold went DOWN,the " experts " said cause they were all SELLING their gold to buy necessites.Shouldn't the opposite be true?

They were saying inflation in the US was contained due to external factors such as a cheaper goods etc.,but you say inflation will not go up during a recovery?

thanx...

~~~~~poof~~~~~

bd

since the summer vs. British Pound, French Franc, Swiss Franc, German Mark, etc.Not the stuff world bull markets are made of, at least not yet. Check it out for yourself. http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot

T1 - Gulp to ya
Mooney - Thanks. Its about 3 am in Amsterdam, too late to write long posts now. I shall be back tomorrow.
Gnite all

Yep show me the money!Pamela lee Anderson... explain Einstien's theory of relativity or show me your...intellectual property. ( . ) ( . )
.
v

The hedge fund has lost more than 100% of its capital base
------------------------------------------------------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/1e.html

lets say gold trades 260.-360 would barricks offer protection versus a decimated cdn dollar and domestic market? anyone comment

vhale - I'm short the dec snp at 1075. The rally came a little bit later in the day and went a little bit higher then I had figured. But its relatively low risk. I'll wait until about 30 minutes after the open and place a stop above todays highs or the morning high.

IT SEEMS LIKE GREENSPAN'S STRATEGY TO ANNOUNCE THAT OUR COUNTRY'S ECONOMY IS HEADING FOR THE TOILET IS THE SAME WAY YOU COOK A FROG, HEAT THE WATER VERY SLOWLY SO THAT HE DOESN'T JUMP OUT. THEN YOU EAT HIM WHEM HE IS DONE. EVERY TIME GREENSPAN TALKS ABOUT THE WORLD ECONCOMIC SITUATION IT GETS A LITTLE BIT WORSE THAN THE LAST TIME HE REPORTED. OH YEA... AND THE WATER IS NOT AS HOT AS IT FEELS.

I think we have seen that 1 ) gold does necessarily go up when the market goes down, and 2 ) that people looking for a safe have do not neccesarily flock to gold. With that in mind:

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2333.1.html

I'm gonna bud in here buddy, just to let you know that this type of option analysis ( or chat AAR ) is another facet that Kitco has been lacking lately. Bravo!
( I guess with all the earthshattering presidential squirter news of late, the forward viewing Y2K, ( which of course being computer related must needs take up MEGA-SPACE ( sorry, mon bon compadres ) , and the much needed death-defying history lessons on guns and ammo ( sorry RJ but we all ( many of us anyway ) have our own gun experiences - please you guys find another board for that boring :- ) type of chat...which reminds me: one day up at the farm I decided to indoctrinate my fiance into the wonderful world of artillery and, I stood her beside me, as I raised the 20 gauge and aimed for the barn door... ) , we have, sort of, become side-tracked.

Where do you think this thing is headed for the next week or two ?

500 million ounces of silver stored in a London warehouse, and the price in terms of British Pounds was dropping through the floor? ( It was almost 4.5 in the spring, now about 2.5 ) This is one of the unexpected consequences of currency effects we must think about if we expect a gold or a silver bull market. Think about it.

The fund ( loosing more than its capital base ) is most likely to be liquidated soon. Now how could that be?!

Wasn't it run by:

1. John Meriwether, former chairman at Salomon Brothers

2. Nobel laureates Robert Merton and Myron Scholes.

How could that be? Such pros of pros!!! Hey, maybe they are the same guys that were selling me out-of-money gold and oil options?!

US financial system is a GIANT fraud. It rewarded stupidity and punished prudence!!! It is GOING DOWN!!! Not even GreenSPAM is able to stop it. Make sure you have a little pot of gold and a few cases of ammo!

the economy through the ebbs and flows of economic expansion and contraction. All, while keeping inflation under control, and priming the pump before any slowdown feeds on itself, and an out and out recession takes hold.

The analysis of the markets reponse to what AG has/is accomplishing, is most likely correct....................BUT, what I think most are/or have forgotten, is that while the rest of the globe is defaulting, our own DEBT situation here is worse than anywhere else in the world.

What, well in excess of 5 Trillion $. Are we really in any position to bail out the world. Isn't it odd that we are in the same situation as others, yet we delude ourselves with the notion that we can do something about it. Where pray tell, will the money come from? We criticize Russia for wanting to print more Rubles,yet aren't we doing the same?

Did I hear today that profits year over year are flat or declining? Did I also hear that forecasts for the next year are flat at best?

Just remember guys, that at the top, things look the rosiest. Why should the stock market continue to advance? ....Or let me give you the answer I recieved when I asked one of my coworkers why the stock market should go up from here. Why? His reply.......Because it will! It always does!

Sound reasoning if you ask me.

I've been talking about the psychology of this market for some time now here at kitco. At extremes, the old cliche " You can't see the forrest for the trees " is so true. If Sept. 1st was the bottom, where are the fundamentals to support a rising stock market from these levels. Earnings growth 0% over the next year,PE ratios still higher than in 1987. You do remember what happened when PE ratios were last at these levels,.....Don't you?

Oh! but we could ease interest rates and that will solve everything, right? Have you seen the balance of trade lately? If the rest of the globe can't buy our goods because they are in a recession/depression, than how long before we/are begin to lay people off. Guys, this stuff feeds on itself. If I lose my job, I can't buy your widget. Then you get laid off and can't buy his car and so on and so on. Well we could just create more money can't we? SURE, why not, Forrest / Trees. Aren't we at historic levels in personal debt right now? Govt. debt?

This ..........Thing, that is unfolding before our very eyes right now across the world is the result of the excesses that we ( govt ) created.

The failure to do what was right in the past is what will make any effort we try to fix now, futile. Look at what Donald just posted from Yahoo.

We are not an island. I really don't think we can just print our way out of this mess.........Thats what got us here in the first place!!!!!!!

The market traded to a .382 retracement of the entire decline.

I really don't think you wan't to get long in here guys.

Why should we continue to go up from here?

Remember my post a while ago. This will be looked back upon in the future as ....The great 401K bubble!

powmain ( Want to buy a hedge fund. ) ID#21275:
The new york fed is trying to sell merriweathers hedge fund

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Classy fund management. Merriwether of Salomon/Liar's Poker fame,
Nobel prize winners Black and Scholes of option pricing theory,
former Fed governor Mullins. CNN Moneyline had it that their
$3.8B in shareholders money translated to $100B in on-budget
exposure and another $400-$500B in off-budget exposure assuming
typical hedge fund leverage.

I mean, if the stuff blows up in the hands of the rocket scientist
who invented it, Katie bar the door.


http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980923/bob.html

We are beginning to get new reports of hedge fund disasters. The pace of such reports will accelerate.

And if the metals break out....

And, I might add, 1929 was only a 'practice game'!!

While the dollar was/is strong we sold bonds ( went into debt ) to by the worlds goods at deflated prices. When the bond market unwinds and the dollar goes crashing down we will buy back the bonds with deflated paper.

We get the stuff, they get the paper.

When money turns into paper it's far better a debtor than a creditor to be.

I was in the retail coin business during the 1970's

when the 1 oz silver bars commemorating events etc.

became very collectible.A few of us dealers had at

that time seriously considered contracting with a

private mint to produce bars for us,using our designs

& silver supply.Perhaps a privately issued 10 grain gold

commemorative coin could become widely accepted as the

1 oz silver bars did.

And.......

Maybe they didn't take default risks into account.

I remember a finance prof put that option pricing model up on the chalkboard in about 10 minutes. I thought it was pretty ingenious, but before I realized that the prof quickly erased it. I can't remember it at all.

Does anyone have a link to it, or could elucidate it for me?
-TIA

If I saw the tremendous short positons and the now accelerated rate of demand shrinkage due to lower prices in overseas currencies, I would not only hold dearly to my 500 million ounces, I would start thinking how much of my $9 bill in cash ( maybe it's in pounds sterling instead of dollars? ) I was going to invest in adding to my position.

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese stocks surged early Thursday as investors welcomed gains on Wall Street. The U.S. dollar was higher against the yen. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 254.46 points, or 1.85 percent, to 14,044.27 in the first 30 minutes of trading. On Tuesday, the index gained 192.51 points, or 1.42 percent. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all shares listed on the first section was up 18.45 points, or 1.76 percent, to 1,068.62. The TOPIX rose 2.38 points, or 0.23 percent, Tuesday. Japanese financial markets were closed Wednesday for a national holiday. Traders attributed the strength in Japanese stocks to the gain Wednesday by the Dow Jones industrial average in New York, which rose in reaction to comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan hinting at a cut in U.S. interest rates.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0s.htm

Precious metals, led by silver, rose sharply Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors bet the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates shortly, boosting foreign and domestic demand for industrial products. Copper futures also rose. On other markets, natural gas retreated, as did other energy products. Silver, platinum and palladium led gold futures higher on hopes Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's hints about taking actions to keep the American economy strong in the face of a global economic crisis will lead to the first interest rate cut in 32 months. Greenspan, testifying before the Senate Budget Committee, said that there was a need to "bring the existing instabilities to a level of stability reasonably shortly to prevent the contagion from really spilling over and creating some very significant further difficulties for all of us." Economists said Greenspan's comments were a strong signal that the central bank will cut interest rates when policy-makers meet next Tuesday.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn00.htm

I'm not sure where it's going to be in 2 weeks. I do think we're going to test the 940 area....fail....then down to 900 or lower by Nov 1. That assumes today's highs are not taken out or only marginally if they are.

And... cheaper dollar will pay back much of that debt ( with a hefty profit to us ) , our goods will once again be competitive on the world markets, economy once again expanding and on the move will further enhace revenues. And... the stuff bought with expensive dollars cand now be sold at higher prices.

I'm playing devil's advocate here - as you know I'm as big a fan of this stuff as anyone. I'm just trying to figure out for myself whether ( with the ubiquity of financial chaos ) whether the lower prices would ( 1 ) increase demand or ( 2 ) promote sales or cause forced sales.

Do you believe that people will buy into gold or silver when it is dropping rapidly in terms of their currency? Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly, but personally I wouldn't buy something in freefall. I would wait until it starts going up to buy, and I think most other would as well. If my view is correct, this means that the price of gold or silver MUST go up faster than the US dollar falls to be attractive as an investment on a global scale.

Of course, the large money interests may not think quite in the way I do, and would have access to much better information.

All: Hope you don't have beach front property. La Nina is following El Nino with a veangeance -- don't know if we are reaching a record yet. Think Sept is the peak hurricane month.
I learned from a relative that some coastal locales already have reduced hurricane insurance. Some places hit twice already.

http://www.abcnews.com/wire/US/AP19980923_584.html

I'm playing devil's advocate here - as you kknow I'm as big a fan of this stuff as anyone. I'm just trying to figure out for myself whether ( with the ubiquity of financial chaos ) whether the lower prices would ( 1 ) increase demand or ( 2 ) promote sales or cause forced sales.

Do you believe that people will buy into gold or silver when it is dropping rapidly in terms of their currency? Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly, but personally I wouldn't buy something in freefall. I would wait until it starts going up to buy, and I think most other would as well. If my view is correct, this means that the price of gold or silver MUST go up faster than the US dollar falls to be attractive as an investment on a global scale.

Of course, the large money interests may not think quite in the way I do, and would have access to much better information.

The drone of AG is annoying. As pressure mounts, the "on the one hand, this, and on the other hand that" gobbledegook grows. Like Harry Truman said "What I need is a good one-handed economist".

The spinning goes on and on, pervasive throughout the system.
Like the Western Movie set, you look behind the facade, and there is nothing behind it... Sleight of hand has become sleight of word.

We await the return to the honesty and discipline of gold.

IMHO

Thanks for that. I've held to my short position and will stay the course - which actually has been very easy to do, because nobody is buying most of this stuff. I'm seeing flat trades on rallies, large drops on down days, I guess people must be buying YHOO, DELL and MSFT, but they sure aren't buying anything else.

monday and if so will you sell sunday or monday?

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan gave the bond market a boost Wednesday by hinting that the central bank might lower interest rates to prevent the global economic crisis from pushing America into a recession. Greenspan didn't say explicitly that policy makers would lower interest rates when they meet next Tuesday, but he told the Senate Budget Committee that some action is needed "reasonably shortly to prevent the contagion from really spilling over." Bond investors interpreted his comments as a signal the central bank will definitely move to cut rates next week for the first time in more than 2 1/2 years. Lower rates enhance the value of bonds already in circulation. "Greenspan has tipped ( his ) hand today -- we're getting an ease next week," said David Ader, director of fixed-income securities at Thomson Global Markets in Boston.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0j.htm

Wasn't that great in the late 80s, when Japan was buying all the real estate in the world, and we were happy to oblidge. Only to buy it back at half the price we sold it to them for.
In the meantime we suffer economically like the rest of the world. Hence the stock market comes back to reality.

In my opinion falling prices would force sales of long paper positons, have relatively little impact on existing long physical positions, promote demand from end users like India, and invite speculative shorting. Of course it could also invite speculative increasing of physical long positions.

In recent years the big positions have been built up on the short side. With risng dollar prices, dollar dnominated short postions will need to be closed out, perhaps to be offset by pound sterling short positions. ( I guess one could save all the trouble by just shrting the dollar, but one still has to deal with the dollar denominated short contract ) .

The end user can see that prices are down, but that does not mean that they wll stay down ( how many times have we seen the "great new bull" market or "great new bear market" begin only to have everything turn around in a day or two? ) . So end users tend to increase their buying as prices get lower unless someone will guarantee them that will get even lower yet.

eb...you forgot to tug on the cape....!; )

azau.....i'll be back in phoenix monday...
specifically, octillo springs.....wanna meet and party?
825 w. queen creek rd.......in chandler, az......
you must meet eb's definition of a detractor...eh?

good......THWOCK!..........and a chop-asaki tambien.....

cherokee.!;..riding.the.jolly.green.giant...squirting.360*.&.going.
..............places.that.do.not.exist...Harummmmmmppphhhhh.!uaza....

All: Notice what defense stocks did today? Out of sight! With regard to the rest of the markets, I suspect that the consensus is that interest rates must come down -- hence gold/gold equities and general equities are up. Also the dollar went down. All anticipating AG's lowering short term rates to reflect what is already happening to long term rates. Another bullish component may be the currenct euphoria about how well WJC did during his videotape testimony. What I find absolutely amazing is that going from nearly 50% or more that want WJC to resign if guilty of lying to less than 50% is good news. Only a month ago, no one was talking about impeachment.
By the way, the 'older bolder' clinton is back -- as he is proposing more defense spending -- upstaging congress.
Anyone have a sense on whether commodities are bottoming? I think this is the key item regarding gold equities, as only a whiff of inflation will probably make the gold equities immune to whatever might ail the markets later.
With regard to the US dollar, if the down trends continues, this could eventually threaten all equities markets -- with rising long term rates a good warning sign. So far the US dollar has plummeted, and long term rates have fallen as well -- how odd! But -- I think the precious metals investors have noticed.

What could stymie a fledgling recovering bull market?
1 ) More KS news -- final summary by Sept 28 ( some may be secret, I think ) .
2 ) Japan implosion
3 ) MOre bad economic news from South America
4 ) Poor US earnings reports? -- big increase in new Auto inventories
this month
5 ) Rising commodity prices -- distant inflation rumblings.
6 ) Military clash somewhere -- Afganistan and Iran or Serbia and Ethnic
Albanian conflict.

My personal guess is that betting on a bull equities market right now is for traders and speculators only -- not investors. Gold equities for the first time are looking like a better bet. For two reasons: The dollar mus come down, and interest rates for the dollar must come down.

Friend of mine does work for an ISP, said that the owner does business with a guy that runs a web-based business. Anyway, to get to the chase, apparently the "Russian Bride" business is booming. I got curious and tracked down one of these places on the Internet and sent email asking about the economic situation in Russia - figured the guy/gal probably travels there. Also asked if, indeed, there are currently, how should I say it, if there is currently a surplus of commodities in the Russian market-place. Sounds like the basis of a new index, the Moscow RBX ( Russian Bride Index ) . Anyway, I'll post if he/she writes me back.

to mint what you all have been yakking about forever
then I'll have to do it myself for myself. Anybody who can hand-load rifle cartridges and make their own bullets ought to be able to make Gold coins. Or at least use the powder scales to weigh Gold grain accurately enough for common trade.

AragornIII at 17:18
But, if it were insisted by the population that the money be in a physical form convenient for transactions, gold coins would not fit the bill. Even the smallest gold coin would have a value too high for the purpose.

What is wrong with Gold grain - Barts .9999 stuff?

One pinch equals a few dollars more or less
( depending on the size of one's fingers )
more if you make judiciously practice with a small pebble. };- ) ) )

Yes sir. It goes back even further than that. Having been beaten militarily in WW II, the Japanese after some years spent rebuilding went into economic war with the US. By the time you mention they were doing extremely well.

So well, in fact it put a scare into certain US powers that be. The new policy of strengthening the dollar and other measure were put into effect.

The Japanese lost a bundle. With what they had left they atarted buying treasuries. When they go to redeem them, they will have lost another bundle.

It's not nice to mess with General Bullmoose.

Also look at the Russian's, in the sixties they put a scare into the US powers that be by launching Sputnic, after already having developed nuclear capability. Look at Russia now.

If you go into economic war and you are a creditor, you risk loding it all. If you are a debtor, you risk not having to pay it back.

Of course you need a little ability, to manage it all.

War is hell.

Date: Wed Sep 23 1998 17:15
OLD GOLD ( Glenn ) ID#242325:
Typical action today. Gold jumps and gold stocks surge just after you issue another ultra bearish forecast.
--------------------------------------------
I never once said that the decline would start today, and a jump in Gold to $292.5 is NOT a surge but rather at the bottom of the $290 - $300 range gold as been in for months!
-------------------------------------------------
Your gold anlysis is as far out and off base as Puetz's stock market analysis. I doubt gold will break over $300 anytime soon, but there is a much greater chance of this than a drop to $225. RJ and Realistic have it right. Basing action for awhile, then a big jump in 1999.
--------------------------------------------------
I guess only time will tell. I'd rather be SHORT then long!
---------------------------------------------------------
$225 POG means a global depression including right here in the US. No way will the powers that be allow this to happen even if they have to inflate like mad.
----------------------------------------
As far as a bet you said that POG is going down to $225. I will bet you that spot POG will not trade at this level over the next year.
----------------------------------------
1 ) The money gets donated to Bart. If gold goes down I will not need your charity. I'm very short.
2 ) No time limit. Simply it goes down before it goes up!
3 ) $225 may be pushing it but we are going under $250
4 ) So do you want the simply bet of down $40 before up $40, NO TIME LIMIT!

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The State Department announced a $25,000 grant Wednesday to help flood victims in Sudan. The money will be channeled through the International Federation of the Red Cross. Department spokesman James P. Rubin said the U.S. commitment to the welfare of the Sudanese people is clear despite its differences with the Sudanese government. A month ago, U.S. cruise missiles bombed a Sudanese factory suspected of producing chemical weapons agents.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin16.htm

Chas, re: your 15:17 today. Some time ago I opened an account with Pennaluna & Company, in Coeur D'Alene, ID for the express purpose of providing an entry way to both the Canadian markets and the US markets. Their # is 800-535-5329. The guy I deal with is John Worrell. Not a lot of transactions, but he has been very helpful when needed.

It isn't unusual for most US brokerages to decline to execute trades for "penney" stocks ( i.e. those which typically trade under $5 ) . I had the same problem, which prompted my research and subsequent new account at Pennaluna. I recommend them to you. If I can provide any additional info, let me know.

Wednesday, September 23, 1998 Chretien says Canadian dollar too weak C$ ends up on Greenspan testimony OTTAWA, Sept 23 ( Reuters ) - Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien said on Wednesday the Canadian dollar was too low.  Only two months ago, Chretien had shrugged off the currency's precipitous decline as good for Canadian exports and tourism.  But on Wednesday he said in remarks to a conference of editorial writers that he believed the dollar was unrealistically low.  "We have no deficit anymore, no more. The unemployment went down from 11.4 ( percent ) to 8.3 in four years or five years. We have no inflation. We have more productivity -- twice the productivity of the Americans last year. We paid some of the debt, and the Canadian dollar is weak," he said.

 "The OECD ( Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ) said this week or last week that the most undervalued currency in the world is the Canadian dollar.

 "We've done everything according to the book, but because of the nervousness of the market, you know, the dollar is too weak, in some ways."

 "But it's the market that decides, not me. And that's why we need all the stability possible."

 His remarks were in response to a question as to whether U.S. President Bill Clinton's problems with Congress over the Monica Lewinsky affair had diverted his attention from world matters.

 Chretien professed to agree with other world leaders that they were concerned that Clinton be able to give his full attention to public matters but he declined to provide evidence that Clinton had not been able to do so.

 In the hour-long conference he also reiterated that he would not agree to allow mainly Francophone Quebec to leave Canada on a simple majority vote and that if Canada were divisible Quebec also would be by the same logic.

 He also voiced the possibility, in an apparent attempt to raise uncertainties about a possible separation drive, that other provinces of Canada would want to join the United States.

Look out below. Dow will live up to its name next week. Look for
a 1500 drop.

"What could stymie a fledgling recovering bull market?"

None of THOSE things.

Although some new KS bombshells could put a dent in things for a day or two.

Everything else is pretty much discounted.

You might also look at my earlier post on Flying the Plane II.

The market has basically been in a bear because the economy and earnings were going to be going to hell.

Because of global financial crises.

And no one was going to do anything about it.

But now someone is.

Sure, there are still flak bursts, and will continue to be for a while, until things straighten out.

NO, I mean absolutely no, bullmarket has ever begun when everything looked rosy.

for the last 10 days. As you can see ( or not they have a graph over 10 days that shows Impeach at 43.5%, Resign at 26.5%, and Serve his term 26%, and staying there. The media is really trying to protect this guy!
Incredible Huh! This is not a sample 500 person poll. Comments.

Take a Poll
What Should Happen Next?
Will President Clinton Resign?

Today's Analysis
Results from the tenth day of our AOL Members Daily Tracking Poll show a steady trend toward members supporting impeachment proceedings. Approximately 45 percent of participants support impeaching the President, up from 25 percent when the poll began on Friday, Sept. 11. The pro-impeachment trend, illustrated in the graph at the right, is buttressed by a decrease in the number of members who believe Clinton should resign or Congress should let him serve out his term. [You can send a message to your Congressional representatives online.]

This poll asks a self-selecting group of AOL members to choose between the variety of potential next steps in the Clinton-Lewinsky situation. Censure, which polls from CBS News and the New York Times and the Gallup Organization show Americans prefer, is the choice of just 5 percent of AOL members. This discrepancy is caused by the poll format. Other polls ask respondents to approve or disapprove of a variety of choices -- the equivalent of allowing you to answer "Yes" to impeachment, resignation and censure -- instead of selecting just one option, as our poll requires. In addition, there's no guarantee that the 26,963 members who voted yesterday were the same group who participated the day before. This poll is not scientific, but it does represent a sampling of what AOL users think.

Fewer members participated in the poll on Day 9 than in the previous four days, but party and gender breakdown remain consistent: 53 percent of voters were male and 47 percent were female, with three Republicans voting for every two Democrats. ( Nearly 40 percent of respondents indicated they are not affiliated with a major national party. )
-- Christopher Johnson, AOL Newsroom

Results for Sunday, Sept. 20, 1998

Should President Clinton:
Be impeached? 43.3%
Be censured? 4.5%
Resign? 26.6%
Serve his term? 25.6%
Total votes: 26,963

Given the circumstances, do you think the President can do his job?
Yes 31%
No 69%
Total votes: 26,930

Are you:
Male 52.7%
Female 47.3%
Total votes: 26,840

Are you:
a Democrat? 24.27%
a Republican? 36.3%
Not affiliated? 39.5%
Total votes: 26,777

How the Poll Works
Each day at about 9:30 a.m. we tabulate the results and reset the poll to track how your opinions change over time. At 9:30 a.m. the following day, we begin the process again. If you missed the opportunity to vote on today's two polls above, here they are again:

Poll: What Should Happen Next?
Poll: Will President Clinton Resign?

To find an enormous index of polls connected to the myriad House, Senate and Gubernatorial elections across the country, check Poll Track. It can be found on National Journal's Cloakroom. As always, make your own words heard in the NewsTalk Message Boards.

Historical Results
We're working to make historical results available in a clear format. Check back tomorrow for a complete set of day-by-day results.

'where to now, saint peter, show me which road i'm on...
which road i'm on...' bernie taupin and elton john....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha15.gif

the us$....benchmark for all toilet paper....


the west has single-handedly brought the rest of the world
to its' knees....by pursuing policies that our fore-fathers
warned to keep from our shores.....it has come to pass....
how ironic.....and disgraceful. we sowed seeds of dissolution...
and the dissolute have come-a-calling......the imf has run out
of money....the 'peace initiative' gone.....the game over.
klinton HAD to be president for all the pieces to fall into
place...he fulfilled his destiny at the behest of others,
and knows it not.....the puppeteer on strings....

war any day in the middle east.....soon to be playing at a
theatre near YOU.

!;...cherokee...ready.for.war....make.my.day.....

a company sponsered pension or one where the individual contributes, the money still ends up in the stock market ( usually ) right? Where else is there to put it?

Discount the boomers and you still have a flood of people investing their retirement money somewhere. And its proably the stock market.

There is just no where else to put the money--- in the thinking of today.

If the world leaders can keep things together ( and I'm beginning to think they can ) , then the markets will ride the wave to infinity.

How many people does it take to control the world? Proably not many more than those we see everyday now.

And if that is the way the economy goes, not much anyone can do about it. I mean, if someone is willing to accept $20,000 in fake paper money for a car that retails for $20,000, doesn't that make the paper worth something? Such as $20,000.

Oh well.

Go gold---

Chas, the brokers I mentioned a few minutes earlier aren't really females, I don't think, so please drop the extra "e" in PENNEY, and make that simply Penny.

thanks

Amazing story from TheStreet.Com - It has been suggested that Greenspan is lowering interest rates to allow this hedge fund ( about $2 billion in capital ) to escape from a possible $80 billion loss that could pull down a large part of our banking system. The New York Fed put together the rescue package.

Market Features: *Update:* Long-Term Capital Gets $3.5B in New Equity from Bank Consortium By Erin Arvedlund Staff Reporter 9/23/98 10:01 PM ET

Ailing hedge fund Long Term Capital Management reached an agreement with a consortium of major banks and investment firms to give the fund $3.5 billion in new equity, raising the net asset value of the fund's portfolio more than $4 billion. But the fund and its push-the-envelope strategy will be closely watched by its new investors. In an ironic twist, firms that had previously entrusted major high-risk portfolios with Long Term Capital will now babysit the firm that had become the epitome of candle-powered guru-dom in the complex world of risk-arbitrage. In such strategies, investors heavily leverage capital to take advantage of tiny spreads in the financial markets. Recent global market volatility unraveled many of the complex bets that Long Term had made.

The oversight committee will include representatives from Wall Street heavyweights Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter, Travelers Group and Union Bank of Switzerland. The group will take an
active role in "direct[ing] LTC's overall strategy and implementation of risk-reduction objectives," according to a statement released by the fund late tonight.

LTC's CEO John Meriwether was quoted in the release as saying, "We greatly appreciate the willingness of the consortium to provide capital, which we are confident will stabilize our fund and enable us to continue to be active in the marketplace."

A spokesman for the fund said he wasn't immediately aware of how the consortium's investment would affect partners' equity stakes or their interest in asset management fees.

Earlier Wednesday, rumors were swirling that the highly regarded hedge fund was in danger of going under and dragging down its lender banks, a collapse that most believed would have a broad impact on the financial
markets. The New York Federal Reserve apparently helped broker a bailout of the fund and its creditors.

See Also- Long Term Capital, the Giant Bomb 9/23/98 4 PM
The Weak Link 9/22/98 0 AM

http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31586_9231998.html
http://archive.thestreet.com/980923/Commentary/wrong/31571_9231998.html
http://archive.thestreet.com/980922/Commentary/wrongrear/31505_9221998.html

Not all market players were participating in the celebration, however. "I think Mr. Greenspan's latest comments should be read with a magnifying glass," said Harry Laubscher, market analyst at Tucker Anthony. "Reading between the lines, he's suggesting a period of difficulty in the economy is in the offing [and] the Fed will move to meet that with a rate reduction. The danger would be thinking cutting rates would stave off further deterioration in the economy. It might be so in the short run, but the Fed doesn't move to cut rates unless they get concerned about something." Laubscher suggested financial stocks will be the greatest short-term beneficiaries of the rate-cut anticipation. Indeed today, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange/KBW Bank Index jumped 5.9% while the American Stock Exchange Broker/Dealer Index surged 7.3%.

http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketroundup/31550_9231998.html

Do your numbers fit the people?

Or, must the people fit your numbers?

The sunset with the "storm clouds" as a poster duly noted, was last
evening's and friend Tolerant I had thought was the clever boy who
could post it, as I didn't know how to do it, saw that "Delphi" ended
up doing it. As it turned out, we had our first rain of the fall season
shortly after, and it was a welcome downpour. Water here is worth more
than gold!
Gollum mentioned it is better a debtor than a creditor be, during a period of inflation. I agree, however what does one do in a period of
an inflationary depression, and a prolonged one, I might add??????
Delphi would you email me and explain how to send a file as explained
in the directions, which are simple and confusing. Reify@sitcom.co.il

Brazil, Venezuela, US and Japan have all retraced 35-40% of their last down leg. 40-42% should be the turning point. We should all start back down in the next few days. Should Hillary, Bruce and Sid be indicted this weekend, and Iran attack Afganistan, that should turn things.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/daily/sept98/24/badbond/hedge.htm

Had dinner last night with president of The Platinum Guild, Jacques Lubin, and the Director of the US Mint, Philip Diehl. It was held on one of those big dining yachts in Marina Del Rey, ( Just south of LA ) , a tiny but beautiful harbor with views of Malibu to the north and the Palos Verdes peninsula to the south. In that one panoramic view, can be found every sun and sand and babes and waves California clich ever spoken. It is along this stretch of coast that gave rise to the notion of a California paradise and, on rare occasion, rises to its own glory and throws in a stunning sunset to boot. Last night was such a night.

Since this was hosted by the US Mint, the focus was on American Eagles. When we sat down to dinner, there was a Beanie Baby near each of our plates. It is a ridiculous bit of rags and beans in the shape of Baldy, the bald eagle, who now peers down at me from atop my monitor. I think these might have been made for the occasion and are thusly very valuable indeedy. I will entertain all offers over 5 million 4 hundred thousands for an original "Baldy". ( Its OK, I got two )

We spoke of Platinum Eagles. Since the coin was introduced, the Mint has sold more than 200,000 Platinum Eagles. This wildly surpasses their most optimistic expectations. While impossible to quantify, a significant portion of these sales is thought to be "new" money; that is, money that would not have otherwise invested in platinum. A lot of boring talk about how hard it is to strike a metal as hard as platinum, but it was the numbers that interested me. As things are running, Im, responsible for more than 5% of these sales, most way under $400.

The news that will bring warmth to the chilliest regions of a goldbugs heart is that they cant make the gold coins fast enough. In August, 1998, the US Mint sold more golden eagles than in the entire year of 1992. They expect to finish out September with more sales in the month than the entire year of 1996. Orders are backed up and shipping delays are running at least two weeks. Since a great many of the nations dealers buy their metal wholesale from us, these delays percolate through the market and meet the man on the street with stories of, "pay me now, and I can get it to you in two weeks".

Phil Diehl went into the reasons that gold has suffered so for the last two years: The high US dollar, CB sales and leasing, and a roaring equities market. Since I have been making those arguments for a long times hereabouts, it is nice to hear it coming from a political appointee - seems somehow more official this way. He explained that these pressures should continue through the rest of the year, but expects gold to rally beginning early 1999. Again, validation wraps me like a warm blanket.

All said and done, the small investor is beginning to look at gold. There is a certain "flight to quality" thingie going on and, when met by nearly historic low gold prices, the solution seems to be to buy more gold and that is what people are doing. OLD GOLD has made the argument here that any sustained gold rally needs the attentions of the individual investor to overcome the machinations of the producer and speculative shorts. These investors are needed to put a floor in place and to make shorts think twice about trying to cap off any rally. This will not be a great force for the next couple months, but I can see the distant thunderheads on the horizon and I sense a gathering storm.

Go Gold

Indeedy

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
September 21, 1998

Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis

President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver ( snip ) Clinton is running out of them, but he has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the international financial crisis.

The Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate
are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity. ( snip )

Enter Japan's Prime Minister Obuchi, fresh from his country's
latest failure to create a workable solution to its economic
crisis. After weeks of trying to pass legislation for dealing
with the mass of bad debts accumulated by the Japanese banking
system, itself merely a symptom of much deeper problems, the Diet
finally passed a bill last Friday. Like all of its predecessors,
the bill was designed to give the appearance of action rather
than to constitute action. It was designed to avoid contact with
reality rather than to grapple with it.

Even accepting the fact that Japanese politics have become as
bankrupt and gridlocked as the Japanese economy, the Diet's
actions were breathtaking. On the eve of a critical summit with
the U.S., the Diet knowingly produced a bill that would
demonstrate not Japan's intention to solve its own problems but
its utter inability to do so. Because no real pressure was
exerted from any quarter and the Japanese are not stupid, they
clearly understand both what they are doing and how it may appear
to the rest of the world. And because Japan is no longer even
pretending very hard that it is doing anything to solve the
problem, we are left to wonder what the Japanese have in mind,
since we are quite sure that they have much in mind, appearances
notwithstanding.

Consider the obvious solution. Japan can force its banks to
liquidate their debts, contracting their capital base, cutting
available credit, and creating a new wave of bankruptcies. This
will bring about a dramatic restructuring of the Japanese
economy, similar to what happened in the U.S. several years ago.
While this will be incredibly painful, with unprecedented high
unemployment and interest rates, in the long run Japan will
emerge stronger and more competitive. Alternatively, the
Japanese government can absorb the bad debts, print money to
cover them, and inflate its way out of the problem. This is a
much worse solution, but it is a solution. The problem with both
of these solutions is politics. It is unlikely that the Liberal
Democratic Party and the Japanese political system as currently
constituted could survive the stresses and strains implicit in
this strategy. So, Japan has a domestic solution available, but
it is extremely painful and politically unacceptable.

Therefore, Japan has decided on another strategy:
Internationalize its banking crisis. Japan is not merely
avoiding action. Whether by design or by accident, it is
exporting its problems. Take, for example, interest rates. Low
interest rates reduce bankruptcies and have their justifications,
but Japan's interest rates are insane. The 10-year Japanese
government bond currently carries a yield of less that 0.7
percent ( That's not "seven" percent; that's "zero-point-seven"
percent ) . As a result, money continues to leave Japan while
foreign investment avoids Japan like the plague.

All of this weakens the yen. Now, a weak yen helps Japan's
exports, but it also places enormous pressure on other Asian
economies. Low Japanese interest rates strike directly at
China's ability to maintain the yuan. Indeed, the Chinese have
been quite bitter at Japanese policies for their effect on China,
and have been intensifying currency controls of late in order to
minimize the effect of the yen's general weakness. Everything
that Japan has done has had the effect of increasing the strain
on the international system. That appears bizarre until you
think about it.

Japan has two goals. First, it wants to get out of this economic
mess. Second, it wants to do so without making fundamental
changes to its society, economy, or political system. Any
solution it devises will require fundamental changes. If,
however, Japan can convince others to underwrite the restoration
of its financial system, it can save itself without fundamental
change. The key is to convince others that they have no choice
but to absorb the cost of bailing Japan out. That isn't easy to
do. However, if the Japanese can convince the world, and
particularly the U.S., that ( a ) Japan is incapable of solving its
problems and ( b ) Japan's inability to do so will wreck the
international economic system ( and America's ) , then the rest of
the world will have no choice but to act.

The solution would look something like this. Instead of the
Japanese government creating a new entity, similar to the
Resolution Trust Corporation that managed the collapsed savings-
and-loan system in the U.S., the IMF or a new agency funded by
international capital would buy up bad loans in Japan. This
would allow Japanese banks to restructure their balance sheets
without forcing a fundamental shift in fiscal and monetary policy
in Japan. In short, the rest of the world, mostly the U.S. with
some European help, would pay for Japanese mismanagement.
Because Japan's fabled bureaucracy would still be in place,
inevitably, formal international controls on the Japanese banking
system would be informally thwarted, leaving Japan looking much
like it did before, with foreigners carrying the burden of
Japanese mismanagement.

Why would anyone agree to this? If the Japanese can convince the
world of points ( a ) and ( b ) above, then, in a massive game of
international financial chicken, the country with the most to
lose, the U.S., will have no choice but to save Japan from
itself. Because Japan doesn't have many other choices, it has
little to lose in following this strategy.

Of late, the Japanese have managed to threaten the U.S. without
doing so openly. On Friday, Prime Minister Obuchi said, "I have
decided that the world's second largest economy, Japan, should
not become the source of the global financial meltdown." Now,
because the legislation he was announcing would have absolutely
no impact on the course of that meltdown, what he was really
saying was, "If things go on this way, Japan will cause a global
economic meltdown. Japan is not going to do a single thing to
avert this meltdown. If you don't believe me, just look at this
legislation. So, if you don't want a global meltdown, you'd
better do something." And with that, he got on the plane to
visit the U.S.

As our regular readers should be aware, we are not of the opinion
that the Asian crisis is causing a global meltdown. Russia's
problems have nothing whatever to do with Asia. Latin America's
problems are only marginally linked to Asia's, and are far less
structural. The European and American situations are quite
separate from Asia's problems. But it is in Japan's urgent
interest to convince the Western community that there is a global
crisis, and saving Japan will avert that crisis. Unfortunately
for Japan, its subtle assertion that it is more in the world's
interest to save Japan than it is in Japan's interest to save
itself is not persuasive. Normally, such an assertion would go
nowhere.

The problem today is that Bill Clinton badly needs a crisis to
solve. In fact, he needs to save the world. Obuchi has tried
very hard to give Clinton the opportunity to appear to be saving
the world. The question is whether Clinton will seize the
opportunity. Thus, two political cripples are meeting this week
to discuss the future of the international financial system.
Clinton set the stage for the meeting last week, when he
announced the need for a global economic conference to solve the
problems posed by the Asian meltdown. Interestingly, Alan
Greenspan tried to diffuse Clinton's initiative by making it
clear that he was not even in favor of a global interest rate
cut, let alone more concerted international action.
Nevertheless, Clinton badly needs to be seen as a decisive
political leader.

Thus, the danger this week is that Clinton's political weakness
will tempt him into playing Obuchi's game. Clinton's need for a
sweeping and decisive gesture, to convince the public that he is
indispensable, will lead him to be sorely tempted by Obuchi's
desire to create an international solution to Japan's, and
Asia's, economic problems. In our view, the U.S. can no more
solve Japan's problems than it could solve Russia's. Japan's
problems are deep, structural, and of Japan's own making. The
solutions must be deep, structural, and Japan's responsibility.
Moreover, it is our view that the U.S. is far less threatened by
a Japanese meltdown than Japan would like the U.S. to believe.
Internationalization will merely further postpone Japan's day of
reckoning, while actually increasing U.S. exposure to the
consequences of delay.

Whether we are correct on this point or not, the pressure on
Clinton to allow Obuchi's worldview to dominate the meeting is
intense. Whether there is a solution, and whether the U.S.
should shoulder the burden for the solution, may turn out to be
less material than Clinton's need to make it appear that he alone
has the solution, and that without that solution, and without
Clinton, the world faces a disaster.

Obuchi, in an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday,
turned up the pressure on Clinton, or gave him more ammunition,
depending on how you look at it. Obuchi said that Japan had
tried every solution and that the only remedy left might be to
build up a "wartime economy," with increased defense spending
leading the way to new jobs and industrial growth. Coming after
Japan's very public panic over North Korean missile tests, Obuchi
is signaling the U.S. that the only option under its control is
the return of Japanese militarism. If the U.S. doesn't want
that, then it is up to the U.S. to solve Japan's problems.

A strong president would refuse all assistance to Japan, at least
until the Japanese themselves show their willingness to make
painful decisions. In ordinary times, Bill Clinton could do this
and still appear decisive, taking advantage of his willingness to
confront Japan as evidence of his will. But these are not
ordinary times, and a show of will in private meetings will not
affect Monday's release of Clinton's grand jury testimony. If
those tapes kick off a firestorm, Clinton may look at his meeting
with Obuchi as his last chance to save his presidency, by
appearing to save the world. ( snip )

___________________________________________________

STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info@stratfor.com

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
September 21, 1998

Impeachment, Japan, and a Hunger for Crisis

President Clinton is running out of room to maneuver ( snip ) Clinton is running out of them, but he has one big one left: foreign policy, particularly the international financial crisis.

The Asian economic meltdown and the impeachment debate
are converging, creating a crisis and an opportunity. ( snip )

Enter Japan's Prime Minister Obuchi, fresh from his country's
latest failure to create a workable solution to its economic
crisis. After weeks of trying to pass legislation for dealing
with the mass of bad debts accumulated by the Japanese banking
system, itself merely a symptom of much deeper problems, the Diet
finally passed a bill last Friday. Like all of its predecessors,
the bill was designed to give the appearance of action rather
than to constitute action. It was designed to avoid contact with
reality rather than to grapple with it.

Even accepting the fact that Japanese politics have become as
bankrupt and gridlocked as the Japanese economy, the Diet's
actions were breathtaking. On the eve of a critical summit with
the U.S., the Diet knowingly produced a bill that would
demonstrate not Japan's intention to solve its own problems but
its utter inability to do so. Because no real pressure was
exerted from any quarter and the Japanese are not stupid, they
clearly understand both what they are doing and how it may appear
to the rest of the world. And because Japan is no longer even
pretending very hard that it is doing anything to solve the
problem, we are left to wonder what the Japanese have in mind,
since we are quite sure that they have much in mind, appearances
notwithstanding.

Consider the obvious solution. Japan can force its banks to
liquidate their debts, contracting their capital base, cutting
available credit, and creating a new wave of bankruptcies. This
will bring about a dramatic restructuring of the Japanese
economy, similar to what happened in the U.S. several years ago.
While this will be incredibly painful, with unprecedented high
unemployment and interest rates, in the long run Japan will
emerge stronger and more competitive. Alternatively, the
Japanese government can absorb the bad debts, print money to
cover them, and inflate its way out of the problem. This is a
much worse solution, but it is a solution. The problem with both
of these solutions is politics. It is unlikely that the Liberal
Democratic Party and the Japanese political system as currently
constituted could survive the stresses and strains implicit in
this strategy. So, Japan has a domestic solution available, but
it is extremely painful and politically unacceptable.

Therefore, Japan has decided on another strategy:
Internationalize its banking crisis. Japan is not merely
avoiding action. Whether by design or by accident, it is
exporting its problems. Take, for example, interest rates. Low
interest rates reduce bankruptcies and have their justifications,
but Japan's interest rates are insane. The 10-year Japanese
government bond currently carries a yield of less that 0.7
percent ( That's not "seven" percent; that's "zero-point-seven"
percent ) . As a result, money continues to leave Japan while
foreign investment avoids Japan like the plague.

All of this weakens the yen. Now, a weak yen helps Japan's
exports, but it also places enormous pressure on other Asian
economies. Low Japanese interest rates strike directly at
China's ability to maintain the yuan. Indeed, the Chinese have
been quite bitter at Japanese policies for their effect on China,
and have been intensifying currency controls of late in order to
minimize the effect of the yen's general weakness. Everything
that Japan has done has had the effect of increasing the strain
on the international system. That appears bizarre until you
think about it.

Japan has two goals. First, it wants to get out of this economic
mess. Second, it wants to do so without making fundamental
changes to its society, economy, or political system. Any
solution it devises will require fundamental changes. If,
however, Japan can convince others to underwrite the restoration
of its financial system, it can save itself without fundamental
change. The key is to convince others that they have no choice
but to absorb the cost of bailing Japan out. That isn't easy to
do. However, if the Japanese can convince the world, and
particularly the U.S., that ( a ) Japan is incapable of solving its
problems and ( b ) Japan's inability to do so will wreck the
international economic system ( and America's ) , then the rest of
the world will have no choice but to act.

The solution would look something like this. Instead of the
Japanese government creating a new entity, similar to the
Resolution Trust Corporation that managed the collapsed savings-
and-loan system in the U.S., the IMF or a new agency funded by
international capital would buy up bad loans in Japan. This
would allow Japanese banks to restructure their balance sheets
without forcing a fundamental shift in fiscal and monetary policy
in Japan. In short, the rest of the world, mostly the U.S. with
some European help, would pay for Japanese mismanagement.
Because Japan's fabled bureaucracy would still be in place,
inevitably, formal international controls on the Japanese banking
system would be informally thwarted, leaving Japan looking much
like it did before, with foreigners carrying the burden of
Japanese mismanagement.

Why would anyone agree to this? If the Japanese can convince the
world of points ( a ) and ( b ) above, then, in a massive game of
international financial chicken, the country with the most to
lose, the U.S., will have no choice but to save Japan from
itself. Because Japan doesn't have many other choices, it has
little to lose in following this strategy.

Of late, the Japanese have managed to threaten the U.S. without
doing so openly. On Friday, Prime Minister Obuchi said, "I have
decided that the world's second largest economy, Japan, should
not become the source of the global financial meltdown." Now,
because the legislation he was announcing would have absolutely
no impact on the course of that meltdown, what he was really
saying was, "If things go on this way, Japan will cause a global
economic meltdown. Japan is not going to do a single thing to
avert this meltdown. If you don't believe me, just look at this
legislation. So, if you don't want a global meltdown, you'd
better do something." And with that, he got on the plane to
visit the U.S.

As our regular readers should be aware, we are not of the opinion
that the Asian crisis is causing a global meltdown. Russia's
problems have nothing whatever to do with Asia. Latin America's
problems are only marginally linked to Asia's, and are far less
structural. The European and American situations are quite
separate from Asia's problems. But it is in Japan's urgent
interest to convince the Western community that there is a global
crisis, and saving Japan will avert that crisis. Unfortunately
for Japan, its subtle assertion that it is more in the world's
interest to save Japan than it is in Japan's interest to save
itself is not persuasive. Normally, such an assertion would go
nowhere.

The problem today is that Bill Clinton badly needs a crisis to
solve. In fact, he needs to save the world. Obuchi has tried
very hard to give Clinton the opportunity to appear to be saving
the world. The question is whether Clinton will seize the
opportunity. Thus, two political cripples are meeting this week
to discuss the future of the international financial system.
Clinton set the stage for the meeting last week, when he
announced the need for a global economic conference to solve the
problems posed by the Asian meltdown. Interestingly, Alan
Greenspan tried to diffuse Clinton's initiative by making it
clear that he was not even in favor of a global interest rate
cut, let alone more concerted international action.
Nevertheless, Clinton badly needs to be seen as a decisive
political leader.

Thus, the danger this week is that Clinton's political weakness
will tempt him into playing Obuchi's game. Clinton's need for a
sweeping and decisive gesture, to convince the public that he is
indispensable, will lead him to be sorely tempted by Obuchi's
desire to create an international solution to Japan's, and
Asia's, economic problems. In our view, the U.S. can no more
solve Japan's problems than it could solve Russia's. Japan's
problems are deep, structural, and of Japan's own making. The
solutions must be deep, structural, and Japan's responsibility.
Moreover, it is our view that the U.S. is far less threatened by
a Japanese meltdown than Japan would like the U.S. to believe.
Internationalization will merely further postpone Japan's day of
reckoning, while actually increasing U.S. exposure to the
consequences of delay.

Whether we are correct on this point or not, the pressure on
Clinton to allow Obuchi's worldview to dominate the meeting is
intense. Whether there is a solution, and whether the U.S.
should shoulder the burden for the solution, may turn out to be
less material than Clinton's need to make it appear that he alone
has the solution, and that without that solution, and without
Clinton, the world faces a disaster.

Obuchi, in an interview with the Washington Post on Sunday,
turned up the pressure on Clinton, or gave him more ammunition,
depending on how you look at it. Obuchi said that Japan had
tried every solution and that the only remedy left might be to
build up a "wartime economy," with increased defense spending
leading the way to new jobs and industrial growth. Coming after
Japan's very public panic over North Korean missile tests, Obuchi
is signaling the U.S. that the only option under its control is
the return of Japanese militarism. If the U.S. doesn't want
that, then it is up to the U.S. to solve Japan's problems.

A strong president would refuse all assistance to Japan, at least
until the Japanese themselves show their willingness to make
painful decisions. In ordinary times, Bill Clinton could do this
and still appear decisive, taking advantage of his willingness to
confront Japan as evidence of his will. But these are not
ordinary times, and a show of will in private meetings will not
affect Monday's release of Clinton's grand jury testimony. If
those tapes kick off a firestorm, Clinton may look at his meeting
with Obuchi as his last chance to save his presidency, by
appearing to save the world. ( snip )

___________________________________________________

STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info@stratfor.com

If I could only touch the cape......much less tug on it.......namast.

I will keep crafting more arrows for the coming battle. Keep an open eye peeled for the USD. 'Tis ready to go again.........turn the chart upside down.....chopasaki!

en has had it.......am short ( been that way ) and it is getting walloped esta noche...........uh huh.... ( $!$!$!$! ) . This is not too good for todays metals rally......short covering ( ? ) ........volume sucked......... ( glad I got stopped out silver ) ........get ready to board the elevator..............next stop, basement parking.

This is EB's famous prognastication by dart boards and chicken bones.........dem bones dem bones dem.........chicken bones.......do your own damn bone tossin'........................ohmy!

Today was full of knee-jerks................tomorrow the pros turn out to make some quick chump change............?

tick-tock, tick-tock...........who's runnin' up the clock..........KLUNK!

away....to michaelangelo


http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

ready to use when ( not if ) the paper money house collapses. We hope to have a coin to be used for common trade, not just a cute collectible. Larger coins and bars are just too big to be convenient. Even a 1/4 oz coin would be like using a US$100 note. For common purchases we need something that can replace the US$10 and $20 notes. 10 grains is about right for this purpose. Junk silver can be small change if there is enough - which I doubt there is. The current population of the USA is using BILLIONS of EACH of the $5, $10 and $20 notes. There just is not enough junk silver or 1oz coins to cover the low end. There are over 4 billion US$20 notes and over 1 billion US$10 notes in circulation.

We realize that we could not mint enough Gold coins to meet a national market ( though if we made a dollar per coin - at one billion coins- wow! Any group or country minting real Gold coins in quantities necessary for circulation and to saturate the hoarding market would make a mint! ) .

I, at least, want some for myself to trade with - a few hundred at least.

SI
Inbox | Folders
Bookmarks | People

HEDGE FUND NIGHTMARE; LONG-TERM CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT R.I.P.

Wednesday night, losses mounted on more than $100 billion of bets
made in financial markets around the world by a huge private investment fund run by Wall Street legend John Meriwether and two Nobel
Prize-winning economists: Long-Term Capital Management L.P.

The WASHINGTON POST leads with the developing story in Thursday
editions. The NEW YORK TIMES also fronts the financial fright, the
DRUDGE REPORT has learned from media sources.

"In an attempt to avoid a new bout of global market turmoil that might be
caused by a fire sale of the fund's assets, chief executives and other top officials from two dozen of the world's largest banks and brokerage firms spent six hours hammering out a preliminary agreement Wednesday at the New York Federal Reserve Bank to provide a rescue plan of more than $3.5 billion" for the fund, the WASHINGTON POST's Mufson and
Berry report.

A source close to the negotiations described to the POST how "hedge
funds" are the "connectors of the global economy."

NYT Gretchen Morgenson is rushing to build a story for the TIMES.

"It is extremely unusual for the Federal Reserve to get involved in the bailout of a hedge fund," notes Morgenson. A spokesman for the New
York Federal Reserve Bank, the biggest of the Fed's 12 regional banks, declined to comment on the intervention.

"And like many hedge funds, Long-Term Capital made its bets on
borrowed money. At times, the value of its positions exceeded its capital by 50, even 100 times," reveals the TIMES. "Recently, for example, Meriwether's firm was said to be holding positions worth $90 billion, while its capital, as of Sept. 2, stood at $2.3 billion."

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

Forty, eighty times the equity.
Just because the NY Fed put this fuse out doesn't mean there isn't more fire in the hold, no sir.

No, I have never written a call option. Probably never will. Do not have the type or quantity of high volume equity holdings that would justify small increments of additional income for limited risk. Writing a naked call option is in 180 degree opposition to my investment philosophy. However, I have purchased many put and call options since 1981.

Without detailing your prior statements please allow me to summarize the
reason for stating that you, moa, and Denton Tx, were on the fast track
to parting with more disposable income. No offense intended.

Anyone who has traded any equity or commodity knows all too well that calling the direction of a market is difficult by itself. Now add the requirement of strict time limitations and you are playing the options game. An option buyer is forever fighting the calander as the premium payed erodes with each passing day. Lengthen expiration dates equals
higher premium cost. The Black- Scholes formula upon which the vast majority of publicly traded options are priced builds in a significant "time
decay".
THE PROBLEM WITH YOUR SCENARIO IS THAT YOU CAN BE 100%
FUNDAMENTALY CORRECT AND LOSE EVERY PENNY INVESTED
BECAUSE YOUR TIMING WAS JUST A LITTLE OFF!

Now lets go back to your implication that gold options are a better investment than gold stocks. I dare to disagree! Many gold mining companies with vast proven and probable reserves, and production,
with little or no forward sales, are selling at 90%-95% discounts from their
recent prices. Rarely, in history do potential investors have the opportunity to participate in future increases in the POG as inexpensively
as today with well researched mining shares. Some are literaly priced
like options with little premium and NO EXPIRATION!

Go ahead, buy gold calls and hope gold makes it's move before they expire worthless. I am buying mining shares with substantial proven reserves and plenty of cash to weather tough times. Who cares when gold takes off. When it does, and public sentiment turns, gold and silver stock holders will be off to the races!

PS Never an argument with physical holdings.

EZ

More commentary from TSC. This single hedge fund was or is endangering the entire US financial system. Amazing!

Rumblings about Long Term Capital's woes have shaken Wall Street ever since the Russian markets imploded in late summer. The fund, famous for its high-candlepower partners, including the legendary John Meriwether, a
one-time Salomon Brothers vice chairman, had become the chosen vehicle for those seeking to make money through exploitation of incremental risk spreads.

Speculation of a shutdown mounted in late August, with reports putting the firm's losses at around 44%. Year to date the fund has now lost about 50%, much of the pain coming from a large, misguided bet on the direction of European interest rates.

How big is the problem? One person familiar with the Fed talks said Long Term Capital's credit-line risk may be as much as $80 billion, with just $2.3 billion in underlying capital backing that debt risk. The enormous credit risk could stem from multiple releveraging of the underlying
positions, a market maneuver used to maximize a bet that takes advantage of small market anomalies. The person familiar with the risk strategy, a hedge fund adviser in New York, said such credit risk would indicate that Long Term Capital releveraged its position 40 times.

The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he knew of funds that had releveraged positions up to 80 times underlying capital to execute certain risk-arbitrage strategies.
http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31568_9231998.html

More commentary from TSC. This single hedge fund was or is endangering the entire US financial system. Amazing!

Rumblings about Long Term Capital's woes have shaken Wall Street ever since the Russian markets imploded in late summer. The fund, famous for its high-candlepower partners, including the legendary John Meriwether, a
one-time Salomon Brothers vice chairman, had become the chosen vehicle for those seeking to make money through exploitation of incremental risk spreads.

Speculation of a shutdown mounted in late August, with reports putting the firm's losses at around 44%. Year to date the fund has now lost about 50%, much of the pain coming from a large, misguided bet on the direction of European interest rates.

How big is the problem? One person familiar with the Fed talks said Long Term Capital's credit-line risk may be as much as $80 billion, with just $2.3 billion in underlying capital backing that debt risk. The enormous credit risk could stem from multiple releveraging of the underlying
positions, a market maneuver used to maximize a bet that takes advantage of small market anomalies. The person familiar with the risk strategy, a hedge fund adviser in New York, said such credit risk would indicate that Long Term Capital releveraged its position 40 times.

The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he knew of funds that had releveraged positions up to 80 times underlying capital to execute certain risk-arbitrage strategies.
http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31568_9231998.html

More commentary from TSC. This single hedge fund was or is endangering the entire US financial system. Amazing!

Rumblings about Long Term Capital's woes have shaken Wall Street ever since the Russian markets imploded in late summer. The fund, famous for its high-candlepower partners, including the legendary John Meriwether, a
one-time Salomon Brothers vice chairman, had become the chosen vehicle for those seeking to make money through exploitation of incremental risk spreads.

Speculation of a shutdown mounted in late August, with reports putting the firm's losses at around 44%. Year to date the fund has now lost about 50%, much of the pain coming from a large, misguided bet on the direction of European interest rates.

How big is the problem? One person familiar with the Fed talks said Long Term Capital's credit-line risk may be as much as $80 billion, with just $2.3 billion in underlying capital backing that debt risk. The enormous credit risk could stem from multiple releveraging of the underlying
positions, a market maneuver used to maximize a bet that takes advantage of small market anomalies. The person familiar with the risk strategy, a hedge fund adviser in New York, said such credit risk would indicate that Long Term Capital releveraged its position 40 times.

The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he knew of funds that had releveraged positions up to 80 times underlying capital to execute certain risk-arbitrage strategies.
http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31568_9231998.html

More commentary from TSC. This single hedge fund was or is endangering the entire US financial system. Amazing!

Rumblings about Long Term Capital's woes have shaken Wall Street ever since the Russian markets imploded in late summer. The fund, famous for its high-candlepower partners, including the legendary John Meriwether, a
one-time Salomon Brothers vice chairman, had become the chosen vehicle for those seeking to make money through exploitation of incremental risk spreads.

Speculation of a shutdown mounted in late August, with reports putting the firm's losses at around 44%. Year to date the fund has now lost about 50%, much of the pain coming from a large, misguided bet on the direction of European interest rates.

How big is the problem? One person familiar with the Fed talks said Long Term Capital's credit-line risk may be as much as $80 billion, with just $2.3 billion in underlying capital backing that debt risk. The enormous credit risk could stem from multiple releveraging of the underlying
positions, a market maneuver used to maximize a bet that takes advantage of small market anomalies. The person familiar with the risk strategy, a hedge fund adviser in New York, said such credit risk would indicate that Long Term Capital releveraged its position 40 times.

The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he knew of funds that had releveraged positions up to 80 times underlying capital to execute certain risk-arbitrage strategies.
http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31568_9231998.html

More commentary from TSC. This single hedge fund was or is endangering the entire US financial system. Amazing!

Rumblings about Long Term Capital's woes have shaken Wall Street ever since the Russian markets imploded in late summer. The fund, famous for its high-candlepower partners, including the legendary John Meriwether, a
one-time Salomon Brothers vice chairman, had become the chosen vehicle for those seeking to make money through exploitation of incremental risk spreads.

Speculation of a shutdown mounted in late August, with reports putting the firm's losses at around 44%. Year to date the fund has now lost about 50%, much of the pain coming from a large, misguided bet on the direction of European interest rates.

How big is the problem? One person familiar with the Fed talks said Long Term Capital's credit-line risk may be as much as $80 billion, with just $2.3 billion in underlying capital backing that debt risk. The enormous credit risk could stem from multiple releveraging of the underlying
positions, a market maneuver used to maximize a bet that takes advantage of small market anomalies. The person familiar with the risk strategy, a hedge fund adviser in New York, said such credit risk would indicate that Long Term Capital releveraged its position 40 times.

The adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he knew of funds that had releveraged positions up to 80 times underlying capital to execute certain risk-arbitrage strategies.
http://www.thestreet.com/Markets/marketfeatures/31568_9231998.html

I was told that the 1997 golden eagle proofs were alot lower mintage than previous years because so much time had to be spent with the problems encountered with the first stamping of the platinum eagle. Do you know if there is any truth to this rumor?

notes.

The drudgereport story that crazytimes posted says this one at times as much as 100x capital.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

Great Post ! Kudos to you. I have always said that the next Gold bull will need the ordinary investor involved. This may be signaling the the start.
Again, one of you best reads........

should have read golden eagle, not golden eagle.

This site is beginning to remind me of my 486 days with a 1200 baud modem.

I've been off line for several hours, and tried to read your post-
but get a 404. ( everybody else's come up ) please copy and repost it if you wouldn't mind. I'll read tomorroe morning.

Who Cares,
Dropping rates is buying time. The Japanese have bought a lot. Can the US buy as much by lowering rates, with so much personal, corporate, and government debt outstanding?

Silverbaron,
The West thinks the recovery of Asia is the salvation of an impending US recession. When Asia recovers, interest rates rise, equity markets rise, and capital flows back out of the US. This may be poorly timed to personal and corporate debt defaults.

Gollum,
AG is good. He appears to have gotten the timing right. But the machine is tempermental and the weather uncertain.
-EJ

My view is that everything we can know about the silver's probable future price over the short to intermediate term ( 0 - 9+- mos ) is available in its recent market action. Price and time. Emotional buying/selling vs rational buying/selling decisions.

Warehouse inventories, "spot"? vs futures prices, lease rates, nearly all technical indicators ( RSI, stochastics, --- ) cannot be relied as leading indicators of future price action. Many bet their money based on what these derivatives seem to be saying. They seem ignorant that every other silver investor is also aware of current low levels of silver inventories, low stochastics, low lease rates, large supply/demand deficit, or whatever.

On this forum I read all sorts of arguments, nearly all in support of higher prices. Somewhat biased, given that there is a wise? seller for every ??? buyer out there.

There are over 74,000 short positions ( 74000 x 5000 = 370 million oz ) on the Comex exchange. Sellers of 370 million oz of silver obviously believe current prices are OK to sell out at. They are all not dumbells.

I am a silver bull. I have learnt, at a very high cost, to pay little attention to anything that is subordinate to the price action of silver, no matter how compelling the derivative evidence may appear. Because everybody else is also aware of this evidence. And because we are living at a time that is very, very uncertain, economically and financially.

Like gold, silver looks finally OK, to me. Still I would not be long with a speculative position in the metals without a contingent exit stop. Silver at $4.70 Gold at $278.

comfort...Since me Father left the planet...you and Ernest in Santa Barbara have NOT demanded my respect...oh no...commanded my respect...

To the Good Fathers that teach young men the history that is them and do so with KINDNESS...a Mighty arm reaches into the sky and is at the same time gentle not wishing to bruise the air about him...

Cheers...gulps and puffs to ya...Thus be me...a privilege to knows ya...