Yes sir. Tempermental indeed. And of course there is the stress factor. One or two more big hedge fund hits, or a major bank, or major brokerage houses, and the wings may come off.

In my mind, he may be lowering the rates a bit soon, but perhaps it's too risky to wait a bit more in light of the stress factor and fire in the hole. It's not as bas to pull out of a dive a bit too soon as it is to be a bit too late.

so I can get up tomorrow and see what the retrace from today will look like.

Australia 2634.0 +60.4 +2.35%
Hong Kong 7862.52 +358.13 +4.77%
Indonesia 272.074 +9.824 +3.75%
Japan 14214.48 +424.67 +3.08%
Malaysia 384.71 +8.45 +2.25%
New Zealand 1730.46 +30.25 +1.78%
Philippines 1220.25 +60.56 +5.22%
Singapore 934.60 +33.61 +3.73%
South Korea 308.37 +16.44 +5.63%
Taiwan 6979.95 +17.78 +0.26%
Thailand 249.25 +17.97 +7.77%

Hmm, when I whisper something about interest rates the markets don't react like this.

Was short over 300 tonnes of gold, by the way.

Greenspan has very little choice. The huge debt bubble created can only be satisfied by one of three ways
1. renounce the debt and go bust
2. pay off the debt, which they cannot do because they are broke
3. borrow enough to buy time, betting that the debt can be paid in
the future, or they can get out of town before it busts.

The powers that be will always choose option 3.
Lower interest rates are a way to buy time.
The largest problem though, is that the lowering of interest rates will
instead of, or in addition to buying time, inflate the equity bubble also, because malinvestment will be continued. How does AG hope to contain this run away debt by adding more????

imho

that this global financial thingie is starting to unravel....

The distant ancestor to today's B2 was the YB-49 flying wing bomber also designed by Northrop. I believe there were both jet and piston versions. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some handling difficulties with the aircraft as flying wings are not noted for their maneuverability ( sp? ) . They can excel at carrying large payloads long ranges due to drag reduction from eliminating the fuselage and horizontal stabilizer and this is of course the primary mission of the strategic bomber. The radar evading capabilities of the bomber were noted on test flights as it apparently "disappeared" during some of the test flights. True, the radar sets were crude by today's standards but still, that was one big metallic target! Also, the YB-49 required vertical stabilizers ( no onboard flight control computers in those days ) so the feat was even more impressive. I'd always heard that politics and resistance to the radical design inside the Air Force were the death of the program but perhaps the handling qualities had something to do with it too. Recently, some concept designs of a blended wing/body type were considered for really huge airliners to meet the anticipated explosion in Asian air travel. Well, something exploded all right and it wasn't airline seat demand!

Oh yeah, also Gold 2K in Y2K! Buffet's got 100+ million ounces of physical silver in London and $9 billion in cash.

( .....cut to a small yet exclusive brokerage house... )
Broker: I'm ready to take your order. What would you like today?
Investor ( pointing to WB ) : I'll just have what he's having.
Broker ( worried ) : Oh, there's no need to be so rash. Perhaps some tasty Yahoo! would be nice? It's very popular.
Investor ( firmly ) : No thank you. The silver bullion and cash please.
Broker ( indulgently ) : I'm *sure* you don't want to do that. Those investments don't even pay interest. You'll retire poor....
Investor: The cash and silver. NOW.
Broker: Perhaps some fresh AOL would be to your liking. There may even be some Microsoft on hand. That's very hard to find these days you know.
Investor: BILL GATES JUST SOLD A BILLION DOLLARS WORTH! SO DID PAUL ALLEN! HOW FREAKIN' HARD COULD IT BE TO FIND? GIMME THE METAL!
Broker ( smirking ) : Well, there's no need to be rude. I'll send the busboy to take your order. He handles our less "sophisticated" clients.
Investor: Whatever. Jerk.
BBML

Comments anyone ? Solid investment, "too good to be true", or somewhere in the middle ?

http://www.brightstargold.com/

Long Term Capital, HARHARHARHAR, burn baby burn, Down with the provactors. Go git dem boys and their bretheren, don't let them live. NOW I FEEL BETTER

crazytimes: I think you are right. Forget Monica and what "alone" means. Forget Japan and Russia. When the banks are bailing out US mutual funds its time to buy more tuna and lamp oil. If this story is in the morning papers I think it might be black crepe and muffled drums for the a long march.

Power behind... sex & lies.
VERITAS News Service - Sources within the United States military intelligence community
have revealed that President Clinton not only angered the CFR by screwing the Bush
coalition but he has seriously affronted the British Israelites and Zionists... and that is the
source of his present difficulties. Moreover the President doesn't seem to have a clue,
although Hillary might know exactly what is going on. 
The Monica Lewinsky allegations arose right after Clinton refused to back Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan. Clinton called for Israel to pull troops out of some of
it's territory that has been ultimately promised to Palestinian rule against Netanyahu's and
Zionist's wishes. Clinton also made a public statement that he thought it was unreasonable
to demand the PLO retract its call for the "destruction of the State of Israel," and urged
Yassar Arafat to ignore the demand. Just a day or two ago he reiterated his call for Israel to
remove troops from some of it's territory. 
Linda Tripp is Jewish, a member of the ADL, affiliated with the Mossad, affiliated with the
United States Intelligence Community, and was involved in an operation to discredit the
Militia post "Oklahoma City". Linda Tripp is a Zionist. 
Monica Lewinsky is Jewish. She is a Zionist. Her family is affiliated with the ADL, is
Zionist, and is Jewish. Ms Lewinsky's Attorney is a member of the ADL, is a Zionist, and is
Jewish. Furthermore the presence of highly classified White House documents in Monica
Lewinsky's possession indicates she may be a Mossad spy. She is certainly someone's spy.
Kenneth Starr is an anglophile British Israelite and a Zionist. 
The entire media complex of the United States is owned by Zionist and pro British interests.
Since WW-II the CIA and Military Intelligence communities have exercised a majority
control over the press in this country. It was brought home recently by the DCIA's defense
of the CIA's policy of recruiting journalists for intelligence ( read propaganda ) purposes. The
CIA has traditionally been and is in the complete control of British Israelite and Zionist
bureaucrats. 
Hillary Clinton was right on the money when she named a conspiracy but she was off when
she called it right wing... unless British Israelism and Zionism can be called right wing. She
nailed Jerry Falwell... as he is a raving Zionist. 
The only thing that can save Clinton from the wrath of British Israelite and Zionist wealth
and power is a complete reversal of his recent policy regarding Israel. In addition he would
be required to make an apology for his statements.
If he does not do these things they will get him... if not with Monica Lewinsky then with
something... or someone else. Go to: http://harvest-trust.org/majestyt.htm for an
explanation on how this is accomplished. This appears to be he best explanation yet why the
liberal press is crucifying the President they have gone to so much trouble to protect during
his Presidency.

Just in case you thought the fall of the wonder-boys was not enough inetresting news, see what ex Clinton CIA chief has to say about Clinton, his foreign policy, Pakistan, Russia, Saddam's support for the "New Caliphate" ( Golden Dinnar? ) :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000124036011016&rtmo=p1hIeMNe&atmo=FFFFFatX&pg=/et/98/9/24/wclin124.html

US government is a joke! US dollar is a joke!

true : ) If anybody could recover 30 ounces of gold for $1,000 ( $33/oz, ) believe me, they wouldn't offer it to the public. If you or I could figure how to actually do such a thing we'd become rich incredibly fast, and we wouldn't need to share it with the public!

Best wishes,
Steve

What is the deal with that brightstar? A thousand dollars gives you 30 ounces of gold in a year? From extraction of black magnetite sand? The gold bars must be black.

Well, that depends on what you mean by meaning...and truth can
take on a diffenrent meaning depending on the context, what is
truth after all? are you speaking present or past tense.
The dump asses deluded thinking are supposed to keep the sheep
happy and content and continued confidence in the system. I don't
think so You go Clinton your definitly a plus for gold. GOOO Gold

The only Precious Metals investments which I regret is my mining stocks. Only because it will remain a bad time for mining companies for some time after Gold makes its comback. It will be some time yet before "new gold" is really even needed in the market. But that is just my opinion.

Anyway, I wouldnt invest in an "unconventional" mining operation investment offer.

1. 3 day Gold conference started on the GOLD Coast today organized by one of the Brisbane brokers. An AAP report is below. ( Gold Coast is beach city of 250k citizens about 100k/60mi south of Brisbane ) .

2.A$ Gold sitting at A$500 since last night. ( Spock saw your response-thanks. )

3.Greenstone Gold - thanks will look at that stock - isn't IRC a great code !
Happy Trading All. Go GOLDEN beaches !

Analyst says gold a safe investment in global economic crisis ( 5 )

By Chris Herde GOLD COAST, Sept 24 AAP - A looming global economic crisis, along with a plunging equities market,
could leave gold as one of the few viable investment sectors in the near future, a conference was told today. Sydney-based
Credit Suisse First Boston resources director Jonathan Hyde told the 1998 Gold Coast Gold Conference that over the next six
months he expected gold to stay around $US270-$US310 an ounce. However he said falling global markets and political
turmoil could send demand for gold soaring. "When we factor in the lack of alternative investments and the potential for a
systematic collapse of the financial system on a scale not seen since 1929, gold, not paper assets is what you want to own," Mr
Hyde said. The conference was told that the last time investment markets were threatened in 1987 there were many other
avenues for funds. Mr Hyde said 10 years ago government backed bonds were offering 17 per cent per annum, hedge funds
were emerging as an investment medium, Asian economies were expanding and global real estate markets were showing no
signs of over-heating. "Compare this to today: as the world has started to get nervous we have already seen a flight to US
dollars that's crushed the yield on 30 year US bonds to 5.15 per cent," Mr Hyde said. "Meanwhile the feeling of wealth that
the equities rally has created has carried our real estate markets with it to all time highs and the very alternative investments that
we turned to last time; Asia and the hedge funds are now the cause of our concern. "This time, if we see a correction in equities
... there is nowhere for the money exiting the market to go. European currencies face the uncertainties of EMU and collapsing
governments and infrastructure to the east, sterling is already very high and most global commodities are at an all-time low.
"Against this background, a flight to quality that finds its way to gold does not look incredible at all, and gold looks far from
dead." Mr Hyde said in the past seven years demand for gold, driven primarily from India and Asia, has been steadily rising.
However the Asian economic crisis and the Indian/Pakistani nuclear crisis has caused a sharp reversal of this trend and scrap
gold from the region had been pouring into refineries across the globe. "We believe that the people of this region will continue
to value gold both for its beauty and as a store of value, and that they will also remember the role that it played for them in
1998, and hence their re-investment in gold is assured," Mr Hyde said. "However, with the region hamstrung by a collapsed
and unworkable banking system, the continuing threat of devaluation by China and a Japan that seems either reluctant or
unable to pull itself out of its current decline, it would be an optimistic man indeed who'd forecast Asian demand returning
within 12 months." AAP

I have been waiting patiently for the Fiat monetary system to collapse. While hoping that it would. Only because it is bogus and therefore, must fail.

However, I am in no hurry to see the office of the Presidency be the catalist for economic disaster. I would prefer the "asian contagion" type of blame.

1. Posting below is from a Brisbane-broker sponsored GOLD conference that started on the Gold Coast today. ( A beach city of 250k people 100k/60mi south of Brisbane. )

2. A$ 500 per troy ounce since last night give or take a buck. US$290/0.5900 . ( Spock thanks for the comment on bullion bank driven selling at A$500. )

3. Greenstone Gold - thanks for the little stock you mentioned - will have a wee look. IRC is great code. Rgds to Kalgoorlie.

Happy trading All ! Go GOLDEN beaches !

Euro-Dollar C.D.'s & T-Bill interest rates have been trending lower of late. These are market driven rates and to a great extent move independently of the Federal Reserve's current short term interest rate policy.

The question is not whether the Fed will allow the fed funds rate to move lower to match prevailing lower market rates, only when. All else, in my view, is hype and baloney.

Shows what I know about extracting and processing gold *grin*

But as luck would have it - I know a lot more about computers.

NORTH AMERICAN BRIGHTSTAR
666 WEST END AVENUE
NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10025
ABRAMSON, DAVID - DAVIDWEA@AOL.COM
212-496-8649

I presume, therefore, that you agree AG has no choice; this die was cast by others, including AG, and in months past. The fact that they now find themselves boxed in does not allieve them from responsibility of policies they have followed over months and years. Do not absolve them of their accountability that includes the "good times" as well as the payback.

imnsho

Comex is the main arena for silver price determination in the U.S. market during N.Y trading hours.

The most active trading contract, currently December, under normal market conditions, largely determines how the other futures trading months are priced. The "spot" month is usually not the most actively traded contract, and therefore the "last" price at which a transaction took place in the "spot" month is more than likely not a true representation of the current "spot" price of silver.

Major refining companies and bullion dealers quote "spot" prices, but these too are likely derived from the current price of the most actively traded futures contract.

My view is that under normal market conditions the Fed does not set short term interest rates. These are determined by the market. Currently market rates are trending lower. If the Fed were now to do whatever to notch down the Fed Funds rate, it would be only getting in sync with prevailing short term interest rates.
In another words, keep an eye on current market interest rate conditions, not on the Fed.

I have to say something here.
This is one of the oldest scams in the business.
I have seen this before, mostly from fellows with the first name of
"Doc". Processing concentrate. Ah, yes. From the far corners of this
earth. Prostitution still wins in age, but not by much.
By its appearance, you need to give this one a wide berth.

imho.

The greater the debt, the more impact of lower interest rates.

Look. Assume that you have $9 trillion bucks borrowed.

You're paying .5% interest. You have to come up with $450B.

Right?

Now, assuming rates just got cut to .25%. You gotta come
up with $225B. Or. Roughly the equivalent of real growth
in the U.S. economy for the past few years. Bingo. You
have reached a stable state. You are basically paying out
all increases in economic gain out in interest payments.

But you're not falling behind in payments.

And you're not having to borrow additional money to stay
even.

And, like I said, theoretically, they *could* keep the bubble going
for a *long* time. Heck, not even theoretically. Who would
have believed that Japan would last this long?

Work out the numbers. To maintain stability, all they have to
do is get total payments in bond interest and stock dividends
to equal total increase in real economic goods. Essentially,
companies are getting working capital at a cost of under
1% per year now. It doesn't take much growth to pay
a 1% mortgage rate.

Final Word - AG re: interest rates.
This is like the pusher saying, I don't make them addicts; I just ]
give them what they want and need. Short Term, they are right. But they are as much the chicken as they are the egg.

regards

But the basic idea is still the same

Not_Sam
Thank you, kind sir for sending me a korean pig, a REAL shining golden Korean pig. A pig whose glorious golden fatness is staring me in the eye right now.

All, It is the size of the first knuckle on my thumb, it is 24k according to the korean "Guaranty" weighs 18.5 g and its piggie-wiggie ears and piggie-wiggie snout are shining gloriously golden in tonight's gloaming while its piggie-wiggie FAT body and curly piggie-wiggie tail are burnished in a most pleasant contrast.

Not_sam, you have made an aurator a happy chappy, and, provided Beautiful Jewel behaves herself, she shall receive it either at chrismuss or birthday next, and, I know she'll go ape over her pig.

Merci, mon ami, merci.

And since it isn't real until it hits the AP wire -
--
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A private investment fund nearly collapsed Wednesday from losses on more than $100 billion invested in financial markets around the world, The Washington Post reported in Thursday's editions. In response, chief executives and other top officials from two dozen of the world's largest banks and brokerage firms spent six hours Wednesday at the New York Federal Reserve Bank putting together a preliminary rescue plan of more than $3.5 billion, the newspaper said. The Greenwich, Conn.-based fund, Long-Term Capital Management L.P., is run by John Meriwether, a former bond arbitrage specialist at Salomon Brothers. Partners include Nobel prize-winning economists Robert Merton and Myron Scholes. The Post described the rescue package as a takeover by creditors who want to buy time to recover some of the firm's losses. The consortium of banks lending the money will now own 90 percent of the firm and appoint an oversight committee to make sure its market exposure is reduced.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn13.htm

slop at his table...there are road apples that would be ashamed to allow him to be one of the ingredients contained within them...Sir and I use that term trepidial in fashion...step down...your EGO should do just that...GO...ery has not been mocked in the manner which is your personal attack on America and children everywhere that deserve so much more than to appreciate a lie...

Crap is crap and you Sir...are brimming over with a hat full...SHAME ON YOU...SHAME ON YOU...I ain't all that...but the worst that is me is better than you on any day...ANY day...

Can AG affect long-term rates?

Somebody can. Over the past few years, the ratio of long-term
government debt to short-term has shifted substantially.

What would be the effect of issuing a *lot* more short-term debt,
and less long-term?

And, last time I checked, the banking system was only
required to front 2% when purchasing gov't bonds. That's
buying on margin in way that the investors in 1929 never
dreamed of.

CNN.FN website
Long Term Capital Hedge Fund who lost 50B in last couple weeks
getting fractional bailout engineered by the NY Fed
in the back room while Alan was doing tap dance on Capitol Hill today.
Shades of the late 20's and J.Pierpont Morgan, eh?
Rumor has it: LTCM is deriv short 375TONNES of gold...
and
guess what else...
Gold"Man" Sachs' on of lead consortium underwriters of Fed's Guaranteed 3.5
Bil Bailout!
And guess what else...
UBS securities...read Central Bank of Swisse is part of consortium also...

AP's translation of Greenspeak
--
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- President Clinton's call for intensified efforts to deal with a widening global currency crisis may have produced little response overseas. But at least Alan Greenspan was listening. The chairman of the Federal Reserve is sending a strong signal that the central bank will cut U.S. interest rates for the first time in nearly three years when Fed policy-makers meet next Tuesday. Many private economists predict a series of interest rate reductions as the Fed battles to ensure a spreading currency crisis does not mean the end of America's economic good times. In congressional testimony Wednesday, Greenspan warned that world policy-makers "have to be especially sensitive to the deepening signs of global distress."

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn16.htm

The Dow Jones industrial average recorded its fifth-biggest daily point gain in history Wednesday, but it was not a record percentage gain. The 20 best point days for the average, including percentage change in value:

Sept. 8, 1998 -- 380.53 to 8,020.78, 5.0 percent
Oct. 28, 1997 -- 337.17 to 7,498.32, 4.7 percent
Sept. 1, 1998 -- 288.36 to 7,827.43, 3.8 percent
Sept. 2, 1997 -- 257.36 to 7,879.78, 3.4 percent
Sept. 23, 1998 -- 257.21 to 8,154.41, 3.3 percent

( etc... )

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0y.htm

Looks like Europe plans to follow Asia -

France 3423.78 +200.29 +5.85%

"But Captain...it's hard to see how that little iceberg could sink THIS ship!.....after all...we have the double, re-inforced hull made of baby boomers and a 'goldilocks' economy!"


Your Cruise Director
That is All

The effect would depend on the demand, for short vs. long term debt instruments.
The ratio you are referring to is reflective of most everything in our society today, the desire for short term gratification vs long term benefit.
Leverage is rampant everywhere. Our fractional reserve banking system, our residential real estate market, and the it seems that nobody understands, our derivatives markets. Plus??? Leverage, leverage.
Seems to me that's our lot, so why not play the game?
I do as a futures market speculator!

Long Term Credit Management

Long Term Credit Bank ( of Japan )


hmmm.....

wonder if there's any more to them than just the coincidental similar acronym. hehe...

Envy
from your last post:
"The Greenwich, Conn.-based fund, Long-Term Capital Management L.P., is run by John Meriwether, a former bond arbitrage specialist at Salomon Brothers. Partners include Nobel prize-winning economists Robert Merton and Myron Scholes."

Reminds me of an article I read in 1987/8 called "Holes in the Blacks-Scholes"

Ain't it a bugger to be an expert?


mozel

you about?

Exactly. It would depend on demand. Which is why I posed as
a question.

But, assuming demand to be static, what would happen to interest
rates?

And what would happen if the demand for short term debt was
growing at a slower rate than long-term debt was being shifted
into short-term?

There is an old Jewish joke in which a Jew in Russia walks around with a poster on which appears the demand that horses and Jews stop conspiring against the government. A soldier stops him and asks him: Why the horses? And the Jew replies: Why the Jews?

I certainly hope that Marshall brought the quotation from Veritas ( which is a blatant anti-Semitic newspaper with a long history of anti-Semitic incitement ) in order to be facetious. Surely he intended to point out the nonsense ( I can think of much stronger language ) that people spout, and in what fools are prepared to believe.
The fact of the matter is that Jews are an easy target because they have never ever sat on the sidelines of history. They become actively involved in economic and social change and attract the venom of those who are against change.
The anomaly of position of Jews in the world is exemplified by the pressures placed on the South African Jewish community and leadership during the apartheid period. On the one hand they were attacked for not condemning apartheid because it was expected, and demanded, that they become actively involved in eradicating injustice and oppression. On the other hand, they were constantly threatened, explicitly and implicitly, with sanctions by the National Party leadership if they dared condemn the apartheid government. Damned if they did, damned if they didn't.

Sounds to me like they need to involve fewer "experts" too. Hell, they'd be doing a lot better if they'd hedged their bets with a few billion dollars worth of gold pigs.

Yeah, sort of catching up.

Well put.

Wow.

France 3423.78 +231.11 +6.75%
Germany 4819.04 +119.65 +2.55%

So Long Term Credit Management was short a cool 375 tons of gold. Probably accounting for the $2 pop in gold we've seen so far, tonight. Now lets see, silver stocks down to 75 million oz and silver is up 1 cent. Explosive reaction, NOT.

Agree with KIP, the only thing to watch in Silver is the price as a determinent to investment or speculation decision. Fundlementals just don't seem to count. We are all looking at the same numbers - the stocks falling, yet the price has fallen with the available stocks.

mozel Auric

Do you recall some months ago that I claimed to have received a certificate of Residency of Texas, in response to a Doonsbury cartoon I saw back in 1992? At the time I could not find it, but guess what ---it dropped out of a book today ( gotta stop putting stuff like this in the back of books, eh SDR? --- check your snail mail next week ) --- Thats right, my certificate.....well I know there were some doubting Thomases and Thomisses ( not you guys ) so I just found it, and typed the thing out for yers all... I see it was postmarked Austin Tx March 1992, and a note from The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts on the reverse states----simply fill in your name at the top




===============================

OFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER TEXAS


This is to certify that

( ( aurator ) )

has stated in writing that he/she intends to live in Texas at some later date and therefore ---provided he/she visits Texas at least once each year -- is entitled, under precedent established by no less than the President of the United States his own self, to claim, for tax purposes to be a

RESIDENT OF THE GREAT STATE OF TEXAS

a state whose greatness can be attributed not only to the beauty and diversity of its landscapes, the abundance of its natural resources and the can-do spirit of its citizens but also -- in the opinion of many -- to its lack of personal income tax.

IN THE EVENT that your own state ( or the District of Columbia ) refuses to accept this certificate as proof that you are exempt from their income tax, we hereby promise to send you a Texas voter registration form so you can attempt to establish at least that generally-accepted evidence of citizenship.

IN THE FURTHER EVENT that even this proves insufficient, the Comptroller promise to send you the newspaper real estate section from the Texas city of your choice so you may acquire a little piece of Heaven for yourself. That -- along with your assurance that you intend eventually to build a home on the property -- should satisfy all but the most cynical of tax officials in your current jurisdiction.

BUT IN THE STILL FURTHER EVENT that none of these good-faith efforts proved adequate to convince your tax officials that you deserve a break, we invite you to pack your bags, call the movers, kiss Aunt Tillie goodbye and move on down here to Gods own country where the grass grows tall and the wind blows free and anyone who says income tax gets his mouth washed out with soap.

John Sharp
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.


==========================

Yeee_Haaa_homeon@therange_aurator~~~

Now don't tell me that Coke is going to warn of reduced earnings.
Maybe they have a derivative problem???? Sales falling short?? Profits can't be hyped any further??? NOT KO!!!!

AG just cut those rates a little more

APH - looks like the S&P has a little more life left in it. Stronger dollar seems to be bringing in demand for stocks. I see 1100 on the S&P as he next stopper as we climb back up the wall of worry.

Dow 10,000 before gold 315?

Gives me the creeps. I keep remembering this graph - basic pattern is the same, level changes are the same, that last little "pop" up is the same, even the dates are the same. Hope not, but you never do know what'll happen.

http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/finman540/learncurve/images/87market.gif

Where is that Platinum rally I thought we were going to see.??

Here's a Catch-22 for you: How do you oppose the proposed changes, the ideas, and the propaganda of the Jews who are active in history without being labelled anti-semitic ?

Hey Envy...that 87market.gif...sort of a psychological EKG
depicting the relative strengths of fear and greed.

Wall-of-worry incremental ascents, cliffs to the other.

Bear trap. Does it mean a trap to "trap a bear", or, set by bears to trap a bull?

Also, when people mention 'bull or bear market", it is not always clear by the context whether they refer to the DOW or to the Gold Market.

Mozel-- I'm not aware of them.

You may want to re-read my posts about the meaning and significance of the word "resident" in Amewrican Law before you get too excited about your certificate.

Sanguine clamps on the wish which arrives for each and every one of youcalamitous stupor is really not merancor is not my way eitherforgive the forgivable and cast away the reston this wavecresting is the culmination of a zenith and umbilical appears to be medicalhowever  it is the LIFELINE and the hearth which is the Mantle upon which rests my Soul and over-looks the FIREthat seeks to make each

and every one of you contemplate how so very inclined without inverting trapezoidal specious diagrams is/are my thoughts

All that is my Heart is sent toforand about you and your wellnesswhich what that illuminates this/these Candle/s has been struck on a solid gold Anvil

Money does nothingceptin fund our emotions and tremolo that is the Concerto of our heartbeatsis the pads of friends feet when they walk to our door/s and the crush of them is MOST Welcome

Thus this day those lessons Endeth

I have no idea what your last post to me meant.

mozel
I read and recall your posts on residence in Merka, I claim residence in *Texas*, the Republic of Texas, that is. What is this thing you call America? I call it of no value to a resident of the Free Republic of Texas. I thought you understood that? amigo, leastways, that's what I've understood you understood from reading your posts..If I am mistaken, I shall be obliged for your guidance...

Welcome the season of the leaves to the northern hemisphere. Something is going to happen today, you can just feel it in the air, that electric kind of feeling. Ahh, life is good. Off to read my horoscope -

You cannot be a "Resident" of America. It is a term of use in State and other political subdivision ( like the District of Columbia or Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ) Law. I think you've been scanning my posts, amigo.

mozel
crabby tonight, mate...

forget I asked

When they say "bull market" they are not refering to gold...that was 18 years ago....

Are you looking for a fall in the market as a result of the equity knocks?

The Veritis site makes the claim that the Apollo moon program was a complete fraud, a Hollywood production. It states categorically that men never walked on the moon, although they have been in earth orbit. It supports this claim with statements about the physical impossibility of men surviving in space.

There are some purported physicists posting here. I would like them to debunk the physics of the problems of cooling in space, spacecraft, and spacesuits put forth on the Veritas site if they can.

To all ..
There seems to be awakened interest in the Rand and
its effects on the profitability of RSA mines ..
The componded rate of decline of the rand against
the US$ has been ABOUT 9 % per year since 1987.
This is about equal to the difference in the
inflation rates between RSA and its trading partners.
It is presently badly undervalued as a result of the
wolf pack raid by the Soros boys and the IMF power
play which happily failed. The Asian currency collapse
and the downgrading of emerging markets also hurt the Rand ..
Inflation here is maybe 8-9 percent versus say 2 in
Europe/US... delta of 7 % .. Bond here yield almost
18 %. Thats 1.18/1.09 = 8 % real yield.
... I think the currency will over time come back to
the trend line .. currently about 4.8-5 rand.
However I would stress that the mines here will
still be competitive at THAT exchange rate ..
The competitiveness of RSA mines depends on
their LOW AVERAGE COSTS and their HIGH level of
reserves per share.. The rand effects they will enjoy
this quarter and probably next quarter also are
WINDFALLs ..but they should be massive ..
The mindset that RSA are DEEP and therefore expensive
borders on Neanderthal and I fear I may be insulting
the knuckle-draggers.
Im not going to argue about this one .. but it is
true .. if you doubt me .. it will cost you.

These erratic market moves haven't been offering stockholders
much solstice.

Nite.

I see reading back I mistook your drift. Glad you found your proof of certification.

I'm sure my handle used to be "Think..."

Gremlins

Now I am irritated.
Think long and hard on these:

USAGOLD gold forum

Gold
Eagle
Gold Forum

Silicon Investor gold chat

Their gremlins versus your gremlins...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-09/24/022r-092498-idx.html

Wall St. Struggles To Save Big Fund
Collapse Could Rattle Global Markets
By Steven Mufson and John M. Berry
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 24, 1998; Page A01

A huge private investment fund run by Wall Street legend John Meriwether and two Nobel Prize-winning economists teetered on the verge of collapse yesterday as losses mounted on more than $100 billion of bets it made in financial markets around the world.

In an attempt to avoid a new bout of global market turmoil that might be caused by a fire sale of the fund's assets, chief executives and other top officials from two dozen of the world's largest banks and brokerage firms spent six hours hammering out a preliminary agreement yesterday at the New York Federal Reserve Bank to provide a rescue plan of more than $3.5 billion for the Greenwich, Conn.-based fund, called Long-Term Capital Management L.P....

salty ..
I didnt know you was a good ole boy..
and yes mozel seems a bit crabby ..
happens to the best of us ..

Thin long & Hard on this

I'd like to welcome you to our forum, but I shan't, you sound too much like Clinton's weenie


Smell you later

For Silver Baron ..
You said that the rand had FIRMED since july and you
seemed to be worried about that ..
average monthly gold prices in R follow ..
lets take a closer look

jan 1410
feb 1470
mar 1470
apr 1540
may 1540
jun 1570
jul 1790
aug 1800
sep 1790 ( to date )
current spot 1720

2nd quarter gold was about 1550 rand .. 3rd quarter
will be about 1795 .. thats almost 16 per cent more
revenue .. equal to an increase in dollar gold of
45 bucks .. and you say "Hmmmmmm"
These mines made big money in the 2nd quarter ..
3rd quarter will be out in 3 weeks .. I think we see
big profits .. will I be wrong ???

crusty
yeah, curmudgeons love company!
salty

crabby
you got a new nickname, mo. Good to have you on board!

.. in Kitco town"
for Rhody ..
Your picture of RSA is a bit foggy ..

I refer to

"This is because although the mines
pay wages in
SA rand, they buy equipment made in the US,
and this of course
becomes more expensive with a rising dollar and
visa versa. "

RSA is a net EXPORTER of mining equipment .. the
only net items I believe they import are the little
locos which come from Finland.
Almost all their costs .. not just wages... are
rand based .. also their capex per oz or gold produced
is a fraction of that required in NA mines ..

However .. your point on the Canadian dollar is
excellent .. I must admit I had given up following
it .. RYO would be a good one to look at .. how
much has the Canadian $ fallen vs the US$ since
end June ..

Hmmmm. This is already a bit too clubby for a genuine curmudgeon.

I confess the velocity and direction of the world's economic and political winds have adversely affected my disposition. T1 posted something about the value of money on the Great Scale of Value which, in light of the news, portends profit on POG's becoming a relative triviality.

For Mozel
you said

"Here's a Catch-22 for you: How do you oppose
the proposed changes, the ideas, and the
propaganda of the Jews who are active in
history without being labelled anti-semitic ?"

I have personal experience on this one .. Once
I queried the jewish gold deposits in swiss
banks .. making what I thought was a good point ..
IE .. that I thought such deposits may have
been in defiance of German law .. and saying that
gold in the US was confiscated during the same
period ..
I was promtly blasted by many posters for
being anti semetic and pro Hitler .. My
Sephardic Jewish wife had to be dragged out
in my defense .. ( I should have married an
Ashkenazy ) ..
.. The only effect this has had on me is
possibly to make me a bit more warmly inclined
toward the Palestinian position.

There was also a second occasion .. but I
forget what I said .. Im sure it was inflamatory
and "hurtful".

http://nypostonline.com/business/5765.htm

"Coke executives hastily call meeting of Wall Street analysts." Expected to have "ominous
news" about earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/re/980924/bw.html

Coke story-- http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bw.html

As students during Armstrong's landing on the moon we would drive around
Munich and had much fun and big audience by telling people on the street
that this Moon-Landing was just a big Video fake and never happened.
You see, satyrs are on the edge of time !
hamlet ( off ta read dizzeys rand research )

Hi,
today my pendulum confirmed again that Chancelor Kohl will win the election but will not be elected the new chancelor again
FWIW and IMPHO ( In my Pendulum's humle opinion )
hamlet

Today my pendulum confirmed that
Neither Schumacher nor Hakkinen will win the race at Nuerburgring. It
will be Wurtz on Prost. But Schumacher will become world champion

IMPHO
hamlet
( away ... to chase my wife's fantastic spaghetti )

crusty
That ( goldgbug ) Egyptian taxi driver in Melbourne I mentioned yesterday when I did the addition on his potted biography, I had him as a refugee from the Yom Kippur war ( 0r did I get that wrong too? )

Wisht I'd a had a history teacher without halitosis and nerdness, who was as stimulating as my maths teacher who taught me of Fibonacci and Pascal at the age of 9...... ( when I was too young to know better )


This is the irony of political correctness, to be PC in noo zilund one needs to be an unmarried, unemployed illiterate Maori lesbian mother of two....

My observation FWIW, when any culture is subject to what we may think is constructive criticsm, there is most often an automatic anti response. The idea that what is being said should maybe be analyzed to see if it might have merit just doesn't occur. This is a result of thinking emotionally ( most thinking ) rather than objectively.

To all you Tourists ...
Part of the reason for the fall in the RSA stocks
may have been tv news of the RSA military action in
Lesotho .. Maseru .. pronounced ma-SE-ru .. but that
big blonde with the glasses hillary barker ( Ben says )
.. pronounces maseROO ( like kangaroo ) .
RSA has to send in MORE troops .. they may be forced
to WITHDRAW .. oh boy .. I saw some footage .. they
are using Black troops ( African renaissance you know ) ..
.. The troops look scared sh!tless. More may be
needed .. talk about a screw up .. Lesotho says they
have been invaded .. This was nutty .. when two
Africans fight .. dont intervene .. as long as you
sit and watch .. you're as safe as houses .. intervene
and both sides will chop you up.
.. Mandela was outa town .. they're gonna try and hang
it on Buthelezi ..
... anyway if you are interested MaseROO is open
for some LATE NIGHT LOOTING .. TV sets are going for
NOTHING.

Perfect example of how the derivatives bubble will be to the next '29, what margin was to the old '29. As I recall reading margin was 10% in '29. And the speculators were going crazy with it. Are there any controls on derivatives at all? I have read there is anywhere between 50 to 100 TRILLION worth. Interesting how the big banks involved are trying to shore up the Fund. When the whole balloon goes any efforts will be like the finger in the dyke. Thats when I hope our gold serves as the insurance we intend it to be. Bart will be one of our bankers.

hamlet:
Latest polls say: CDU/CSU ( ie Kohl ) about 36 %, SPD 41%. Will be a thrilling weekend.

Thanks to propose an austrian F1-driver as winner - but I dont think hell do it already this time. Though he is a gem!

John -

Of course you are correct about the upcoming earnings of the SA companies, which are expected to be very good.

My point is only that ( for the last few months ) the Rand has gone the other way, and therefore the earnings windfall gain from the falling Rand has peaked. If the US dollar continues to lose vs. the Rand, this earnings stream will shrink unless the price of gold ( in US dollars ) goes up more than the Rand does.

Let's just get specific. Suppose I come to your town and began a campaign to institute the Kibbutz notion of property, which has many similarities to the Marxist's notion. If anybody dares opposes my proposal, I denounce them as anti-semitic.

This brings me back to a question I asked a while back......What happens to the gold short position if the fund goes belly-up?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/e3.html

Globex down, bonds down, dollar up, metals mixed,oil down.
Looks like we're expecting a retrace.

Silver baron ..
I really do not get your point and if you have
one I fear it has been reached in an imprecise manner.
I will expand ..
You say ..

" Of course you are correct about the upcoming
earnings of the SA companies, which are
expected to be very good. "

***** ( so far so good ) and you continue***

"My point is only that ( for the last few months )
the Rand has gone the other way,"

***** woops .. last FEW MONTHS NOT
please read
jun 1570
jul 1790
aug 1800
sep 1790 ( to date )
current spot 1720
what you should say is for the month
of September and really for the last week
during which the rand has firmed a bit.
gold in Rand is STILL 10 % above where it
was in June when profits were huge even at
a low dollar gold price .. you continue ..
*************************************

"and therefore
the earnings windfall gain from the falling Rand
has peaked. "
***************************************
I do not see how anyone can conclude from this
data that gold in Rand has really PEAKED !!
You continue..
***************************************

"If the US dollar continues to lose
vs. the Rand, this earnings stream will shrink
unless the price of gold ( in US dollars ) goes up
more than the Rand does."

*****************************************
Now that is one BIG "IF" .. Do you believe
that the dollar will CONTINUE to LOSE
against the RAND ??? That means I can get
a lovely Blonde California girl as my
maid instead of my suddenly rather shabby
looking colored girl.
What you say however is mathmatically
correct and always was .. but is oddly
enough not really ever going to happen
till Birnum wood doth come to Dunsinane
and I am killed by man not of woman born.

The Fed may have been prompted to act quickly on Long-Term Capital's
problems because it realizes that many of the world's hedge funds and
most of the big brokerage houses have billions of dollars in trades on their
books that are identical to those skewering Mr. Meriwether.
This morning's NYTimes article on Long T C has two revealing paragraphs:
"The Fed is aware of the precarious position that exists among the largest
dealers who have positions in virtually every fixed-income product versus
Treasuries," said one trader, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "If
Long-Term Capital had to take off its trades, all the hedge funds and
dealers would be killed."

To all
the Lesotho thing has been a ballsup.
Mbeki was away .. big nellie was away ..
so Buthelezi carries the can .. poor bugger.
.. 8 soldiers dead .. at least one White
medic named Sax. Everybody p!ssed off .. mainly
Lesothos .. if elections held now .. opposition
party will be guaranteed to win .. Botswana
also sent 200 troops but the South Africans will
be seen as the bad guys.

GENEVA ( AP )  The number of people without full-time jobs worldwide will reach a record 1 billion by the end of 1998, mainly due to Asia's financial crisis, the International Labor Office reported today.

The turmoil in Asia will cause the number of unemployed people around the globe to rise by 10 million to 150 million, the massive study said.

In addition, 750 million to 900 million other people  some 30 percent of the world's workers  lack full-time jobs or earn less than the minimum needed to live, the U.N. labor agency said.

The study's author, ILO employment expert Rashid Amjad, predicted "much more pressure on the global employment situation'' in future years, but declined to be specific.

Unemployed will reach 1 billion worldwide by year's end
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0924/i_ap_0924_18.sml

Are there any controls on derivatives at all ~ Good question I remember Sharefin recently thought Derivatives were around US$150+ trillion but I have also seen 500 trillion quoted . Add to this A team ( I believe at a University in Oxford attemted to arrive at a figure without success.
I remember about three years ago a banker saying it was not IF but WHEN...lets hope its not blamed on Y2K Money ( Fiat ) sloshing around the globe now will cease with Y2K /telecomminications.
this is the STUFF wars are started over...... yes go gold Silver and PLAT
get rid of pathetic politicians who command no respect and their lap dog counterparts
cpo

Fred, under the impression of your polls' figures I asked my Pendulum again: It sticks with Kohl and Wurtz . Seeya on TV ! ( IMPHO )
Cheers,
hamlet ( away for spaghetti and seminar, back on Sunday for the races )

Outage hits Front Range phone service
http://www.denverpost.com/news/news0924b.htm

Anybody else looking for a XAU retrace to 67 today?
( I'd be happier if it went to 71 )

I believe I see your point. I must apologise to Bart and all.
It is churlish to criticise that which is freely given.

Thanks for your coverage of the military situation there and the prospects for the SA mines. Your insight and perspective is invaluable.

My question tonight is how do I get the banks to bail out my bad trades??? Good thing I can't get that 100::1 margin.

website- does an expose' on all groups.

Pls check your email - sent you a chart of Gold in terms of SA Rand. Looks like we're past a wave 5 top to me.

http://www.securitytrader.com/Default.htm

John what do you think of TLQ as a conservative shot at the SA golds?
It is really cheap right now in US$, at 35 cents.I know they have more in their scope than just mining but I don't know what really. What do you think?

That's sounds like curtains, there, Silverbaron.

I shed no tears for the boys at Long Term Credit Management. Here you have the best minds with the best suits and ties, private jet transport, best connections of person and information and they blow out like a bunch of newbee speculators in pork bellies. Come on - what does it take to get a job like theirs . . lending money to devloping economies on 2% leverage . . makes me feel less a chump with some of my less than wonderful decisions. Wonder what the story is behind the unwinding of their gold short postion said to be 375 tons. Appears that perhaps there may be some bids in the market at $290 as gold holds up dispite drops in the foreign currencies.

Bet there is a move a foot to tighten up on the hedge funds' leverage. Maybe this will trigger the unwinding of some shorts. Apparently the Europeans are not moved by the drop in Comex silver sufficently to start a covering wave #1.

All: Clinton body court keeps floating to the surface. Anyone do a statistical survey of all past presidents and the number of deaths or death threats associated with their rise to power? I'll bet this one is several heads above all the others.

http://www.WorldNetDaily.com/exclusiv/980924.exrivero_clinton_bo.html

Gollum: Worden bros are starting to waiver a bit on their bearish stance, and my index indicator just went bullish. Defense stocks look really good. What is making me hesitate is the 'fire in the hole' as you call it. Hard to tell how long one of those derivatives fires take to really get going and trash the world's financial markets.

When we have our day of reconing from the derivatves market, I think it will be like what we had about a week ago -- a sudden drying up of liquidity -- no indicators warning -- nothing.

Judge for yourself about this wave count from about Dec 1997 bottom in Gold vs Rand terms.

We could be past wave 5, or in a ( current ) downtrend in a larger pattern. Who knows?

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/hj.html

New York Times Page One

" The market was also watching developments surrounding troubled U.S. hedge fund Long Term Capital Management for any possible short covering activity. "

@ "Where is the rally in platinum?"

jims -
Well...... I'm waiting
Longer than I anticipated
But my resolve is as hard as the metal

Regarding such:
I forgot who asked about striking probs with the Platinum Eagle, but there were some troubles in striking the original 1997 proof coins. Gold proofs are struck twice to get that extra high relief and sharp definition that defines a proof. The Platinum Eagle proofs had to be struck 29 times with 40 tons to get proper relief. The result, I am told, has forced graders of coins to reevaluate their grading methods, as the Platinum Eagle was off the scale. Lurky can tell folks better about the grading, but the Platinum proofs are rated as highly as any coin on earth.

It is the prettiest coin, to be sure. But when will the rally ensue? If the October contract does not develop into a squeeze, look for industrial users to load up on supplies before year end in anticipation of another cessation of shipments from Russia. I cant recall a time when platinum did not rise from the mid $300 level. I would view a return to $400 as the minimum I would expect, with an eye towards $430 - $460 by the end-o-the year, in keeping with Johnson Mattheys predictions for 1998. I once thought these predictions were very conservative, but would now be happy to see even those modest levels. Regardless, platinum is almost always a good buy under $360.

I like it here, and will continue to layer in trades.

This boat has not yet left the dock.

OK

Yesterday I had reported here my observation that the British Pound had more rapidly lost value relative to the Euro-block currencies than the US-$, but that both, Pound and $ usually move into the same direction.
Expressed in more professional financial terms, the spread between Dollar and pound has widened.

It was to my great pleasure this morning to read in the Washington Post that one of the real giants among the internationally operating hedge-funds, "Long Term Capital Management" came into deep trouble because they put billions of $s on the opposite bet: that the spread between the US-$ and the Britisch Pound would narrow.

Now, all these big financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Travelers Group, UBS Securities, some of the firms with the largest exposure to Long-Term Capital, had to come up with an emergency takeover of 90% of the troubled hedge fund, plus have to inject $3.5 billion.

The total exposure of Long-Term Capital is nearly $1 trillion.

Re Gold vs Rand - definitely 5 waves completed. But is that merely wave 1 of a larger 5, and we are in "2" now? Just a thought.

Use to be IMF/Federal Reserve bailed out mutual fund investors as in
Mexico etc. Guess the damage is moving down the food chain !! Federal
Reserve is bailing out former Fed Governor and a bunch of really smart
( Duh ) people in LT Capital. Let's see - really smart people would grow
a Balance sheet to $ 125,000,000,000 with $ 4,500,000,000 in equity. You
boys can keep the smart ones if ya don't mind.

Could be......it depends on whether the US dollar falls off a cliff when AG lowers interest rates. If there is a deflationary credit crunch, I would expect that there would be a HUGE rally in the US dollar as everyone scrambles for dollars to settle their liabilities.

In that case, we would ( probably ) be in a wave 2 of a much larger pattern. The downside of this scenario is, that such a US dollar rise would likely be death for gold in the short run.

It will be a real balancing act to sort this mess out, and be a winner.

As you know, though others may not be aware, gold had a 30%+ rally in Rand terms from the beginning of the year to some point in July.
I have looked at the chart on th excellent URL you referenced.

Looks like a flag formation has developed with a possible pullback target of 1650.

Metals in most of the major foreign currencies don't look real good right here. Platinum in yen, silver in pounds have not been recent winners by any matter of means. I'm not real convinced it really matters, I think we can look to hard and too far afield for signals and miss what's in our face. Right now it seems gold and silver are findning some footing, while PT and PD are in a corrective mode. Gold and metal mining stocks are doing better and the DOW will go up because I am out of the stock market.

Dow 10,000 before gold 315????

Some talk yesterday about who is calling the gold market with some measure of accuracy:

I have read Glenns posts on this site from the beginning. He has a trading floor view of these markets and has been one of the most consistently accurate voices on this forum. I recall his posts of about a year and a half ago warning everybody that gold would fall through $390. He was abused and shouted at for his views, but time proved him the wiser prophet. Most here would have done well to heed his warnings.

I agree it does little to compare predictions. My own accurate calls in gold have been offset somewhat by my mistimed platinum trades and my ambivalence on silver. Glenn and I disagree on whether the bottom is in for gold, and I believe his analysis is a very valid one. I draw a different conclusion than he, but his reasons for expecting a further fall are well reasoned. When calling markets for the short term, all will be wrong sooner or later. One then looks for consistency.

Glenn has been one of the most consistent and accurate posters on this site.

All would still do well to heed his words.

Yes

It is the lead story on my just arrived FT--
"Fed's unusual intervention came amid reprts of growing pressures in New York credit markets....One financial institution is said to have an exposure to LTCM of up to $800mn.

The Fed recognised that this is about as serious as it gets," said another banker close to the talks.

The six financial institutions said to be leading the effort at the Fed yesterday are JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Deutsche Bank.

The Fed is putting pressure on financial institutions to form some sort of consortium, like a creditors committee if you like, to take over the fund's positions and working towards an orderly sale.

...Hedge fund investors said that unlike most other hedge funds LTCM refused to disclose its investment strategy to potential investors, but typically levered its investments by a factor of five to one."

It seems to be clear now, due to your comments re treasurys and gold held by LTC, why the Fed made an "amazing" rescue attempt. Do you know what the LTC positions were for gold and treasurys??

To my GREAT confusion, I'm trying to divest myself of merkocentric views of things and grasp the big picture in order to be on the winning side of whatever outcome presents itself.

And to my dismay, this complicates rather than clarifies.

What the heck. The only thing I'm convinced of, is that chaos will reign supreme sooner or later.

The US market will go up not because you are OUT, but because I am SHORT! ( :^ ) )

FT 9/24/98--Presidential Hopeful Luzhkov condemns privatisation--
then in bold black--"Moscow Mayor Blames IMF Advice for Russia's Woes..."

Someone posted earlier that they were short 375 tons ( tonnes? ) of gold, but I know not whether this is short futures, leased metal, or whatever. Perhaps someone else knows.

If they were short futures, YOU CAN BE SURE that whomever takes over the fund will try their level best to PUSH THE GOLD PRICE DOWN so that they can exit these positions. If they were leases, I assume that these are two-party agreements, but the net effect may be the same.

and I was begining to think I was seeing ghosts. We wait to see if this can be contained. Probably, for a while. Counterparty risk...watch and worry. Off to work.

Tom

It appears we are coming to another nexus. The market looks poised to come back. In '87, it did. In '29 "fire in the hole" got it ( maybe '30 ) .

If Greenspan is hitting the throttle and pulling back on the stick soon enough, we'll make it. If not, we'll fly into the ground. As it is we're going to clip some tree branches either way.

More frantic effort to get prices, particularly silver prices down at least a bit before the equities markets open. Looks like somebody is in a desperate short position. Wonder which stocks they are?

gonna' sit right down here and do my best to figure out how much happiness costs..??...and, as always.... oh, yea...I remember now ...I still owe the world at least one big smile today! al green, baby. G & P to GoldbugOs!!!

Globex firmly down, bonds down, metals up, oil down. Looks like the next hour or so is going to be very frantic in the pits.

Happiness can not be bought, only leased.

Russian inflation soars 67 percent.Prices expected to be 300 percent higher by December. BTW, the politically correct term is nt inflation..it's now called emission.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/191410.asp

You have stepped on my last nerve this time. I can forgive you for being out of date and completely in the dark about DEFCON after all you say you have been retired for a while . And your post about conspiracies
can be overlooked due to being misinformed. But you have shown your true colors today as a rabid anti-semite and I have blasted better men the you repeatedly for that. To claim that the MOSSAD is behind the current mess in Washington is so stupid I cant beleive you said it. The MOSSAD is a much more efficient organization than to use a 22 year old air head to embarASS the POTUS. If the Isrealis wanted him out they could do it anytime. We should have paid them to take out Bin Ladin for us, it would have been done right the first time and cheaper than all the Tomahawk missles we wasted. IF you know any history at all you know you are talking out your tuchas insted of using your head. SHALOM to you.

CNBC, Boston Globe I think.

Harvard Endowment Fund has taken a big hit!

Who is next? What pension fund is safe?

HERE WE GO!

HighRise

The board in conjunction with the lenders has hired Ms. Hillary Clinton to help us return to profitability.
Ms. Clinton, as you in the press know is a trader without peer. Her parlaying of $1000. into $100,000 in a series of trades is legendary.
Mr. Merriwether has gathered four millions of cash and a full year subscription to the Wall Street Journal as startup capital for Ms. Clinton. We anticipate that our shareholders and partners will be made whole as Ms. Clinton repeats her 100:1 return.

It does not look like the retrace is going to be very deep. Optimism reigns on "The Street"

They got silver down about five cents by the opening of the equities market. It's come back up about two cents now that the shouting has started.

Gollum: We're going to need a little protection when we skim the trees. No hardwoods, I hope.

What puzzles me is there is nearly $2 trillion in bad debt and counting since the SEAsia episode, and I still don't know if it was rolled over or not. Usually 'the powers that be' try to figure out how the make the unknowing public pay for the loss -- low interest bonds, etc.

Are yu speaking of domestic or foreign bad debt?

Studio R.: My HP21 is in my desk next to my Keuffel and Esser Slide rule. Nicads gave out years ago. But it might be worth something in a few years. The HP21, that is. Don't know about the slide rule.

Think the Oil rally will continue through the winter, or is this the first wave only? Things sure move fast when they move, don't they? Kept some of my energy funds ( FSESX ) during the recent downturn - was -20% at one time. Now plus 20%. Could be the US dollar, Kosovo, or Iran/Afganistan. N Korea lobbing a missle uncomfortably close to Alaska, and Saddam seem distant second choices.

Notice that we have three hurricanes heading our way now? Texas grade weather this year?

The moves are fantastic! If we get much of a jump, there are going to be some more hedge funds bite the dust.

I wonder if Chase+Goldman+Merrill+..etc would allow me to 'term out'
my margin obligations so I don't default. You know, if I go down, I am
going to probably take the world financial system with me. Give me a
buzz after you talk it over with Rubin. Love always An ordinary dumb
investor.

With Gold up $1.10 this morning, I would expect the XAU to continue it's up move until it hits the 200 Day MA...as I see the charts, we have a flag formed which is most likely a continuation pattern of the up move...I would expect to see more upward momentum in the future, especially when you bring in the fundamental side of AG's possible interest rate cut...AG just has to save the Hedge funds that all his neighbors are in....

Here it comes.

SOME hedge funds get saved, others take their place on the road paved with good intentions.

Mozel - if you do not agree with the ideas, you can argue rationally and substantially against the ideas - not the Jew/s who propound it. Attacking the bearers of new ( controversial? ) ideas is reminiscent of shooting the bearer of bad news in ancient Rome. Goldbug23 very well explained the automatic reflex of just anyone to any change. By calling anyone opposing your proposal an anti-Semite is a very convenient cop out to discussing the merit - or faults -of your proposal. The greatest danger of political correctness is that everyone is afraid of criticising anything for fear of being attacked for being anti something. This leads to paralysis - as change is politically incorrect - and .is ultimately detrimental to society.

John Disney -
a. It may have been against the law to deposit gold in Swiss banks - but does that justify Swiss banks confiscating the gold for themselves because the depositers have been murdered by the Nazis -with whom the Swiss collaborated? Furthermore, not an inconsequential amount of gold is from the gold fillings from the teeth of Jews sent to the crematoria. So perhaps that will explain the vehement reaction to your comment. Furthermore, there are many cases in which laws are so inhuman that they must be broken. Look to many of the apartheid laws in your own country.
b. Just because you are blasted by many posters ( many of whom may not necessarily have been Jewish ) "for being anti semitic and pro Hitler" you react by being more warmly inclined towards the Palestinian position ( which has not yet retracted its determination to destroy the State of Israel despite committing itself to do so in the Oslo Agreement signed in 1993 ) ???. Don't you think you are over-reacting??

Gollum: About 1.4 trillion bad debt from SEAsia -- mostly foreign creditors -- Japan and Europe. This debt does not include Communist Chinese debt to foreign investors. Little US creditor risk as I recall.

But -- the Russian debacle may be closer to home, because Brazil and other South American companies bought Russian debt, and we ( USA ) unfortunately have invested a great deal in South America, though I don't know how bad it is. Last I heard Brazil alone had 60 billion at risk short term, due in the next month or so. Don't know how bad the Mexico situation is, but it is clearly not good.

My guess is the G7 pledged to support Brazil because they are worried about the financial domino effect. Perhaps nothing will happen until about a month or so after the Brazilian elections on Oct 8.

Next crisis November?

What puzzles me is that if the IMF is broke, what can the G7 give to Brazil? Promises only won't go very far.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/jb.html

Next crises, next week if Fed doesn't lower rates. If he does, maybe week after that.

Seasia debt has been discounted. Only if something entirely new shows up will it generate market problems.

Known problems are now seen as being worked on by G7, if not by Fed.

Like I said, no bull market has ever started when times looked rosy.

DEC. COMEX GOLD @ 295.00 // DEC. COMEX SILVER @ 5.08 //

Looks as if the XAU is having trouble getting through the 72 area now. It got to 72.10 and is now down a little. We shall see if this is a temporary top. Yes ?
GW

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/mu.html

from early morning today.

I own three SA stocks now...DROOY, HGMCY, RANGY...how would you re-arrange or add to this group...and of the three which one do you like the most and which one has the greatest potential. Thank you.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/kx.html

I don't have real time, but I show gold up $3.10 ( delayed )

Highhopes

stock market climbing big time this morning ( and on globex before the
markets opened ) ? Asian markets did well. Same with markets in Europe.
Is this bull run peetering out because we're still in a true bear market?
Or am I not giving the market enough time to collect itself, and then
continue upward? Fox-man

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/ke.html

10:08 RUBIN: JAPAN NEEDS TO TAKE EFFECTIVE MEASURES TO CLEAN UP BANK CRISIS.
10:08 RUBIN: SEES NO SYSTEMIC RISK TO US ECON FROM LONG TERM CAPITAL PROBLEM.
10:08 RUBIN: SOME US SECTORS AFFECTED BY INTERNATIONAL CRISIS.
10:08 US'S RUBIN: RISK TO US ECONOMY HAS INCREASED, IS REAL.

Thanx a lot. I'll check them out and let you know

No one. I think the powers that be are no longer in control of the markets, if they ever were. Counterparty defaults must be running high or the multination financial institutions stepping forth to help LTCM on margin calls would not be happening.

Does not solve the counterparty default risk. Gold...not a rush to cover...yet. See if "they" can contain this.

Gollum is correct...'87...yes. '29...no. '97...????

Tom

The market WAS just a little bit over exuberant yesterday, don't you think?

1 ) It's not 100% there will be a rate cut ( though highly likely )

2 ) That WAS kind of a big hedge fund hit ( and more to come )

XAU just bounced off the 200 day MA at 72.10, this could be difficult to get thru but I believe that it will very soon...the buying looked steady with no gaps, but time will tell...I would expect new highs here....

Jeez! Look at silver now. Somebody's short fund is going down for sure.

I have Dec. Gold @ 296.30 ( it hit 297ish ) Dec. Silver @ 5.15
GO GO GO GO!!!

another $1 to $2. I should be working but this might be history in the making. Yes?

Tom

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/pl/story.html?s=v/nm/19980922/pl/farmaid_2.html

look at gold up 4.80 spot.....

To paraphrase an old adage:
If you owe the bank a million dollars, YOU are in big trouble.
If you owe the bank a billion dollars the BANK is in big trouble.

I would say that there are several US banks in big trouble right now. The 3.5 billion they put up is only to pay the margin. If the total figure of 125 billion is even in the ballpark, the banks are in BIG BIG trouble.

gold and the canadian dollar up

Another interesting analysis from "Hightower Report" posted early this morning:

"The rate cut potential is a real shot in the arm to gold even if prices don't react instantly. In order to get back to a market where demand is strong enough to fuel sharp rallies we feel its necessary to counter the recession potential and weaken the Dollar enough to keep prices attractive. The China news certainly helps clean up remaining Central Bank supply and as we said yesterday really begins to give gold some solid support. We still need a market where investors ae buying gold and hedgers are a little more willing to hold out for better prices. We are not sure how heavy the hedge interest is but we do think it was responsible for stopping gold once it got to $300 last week! In summary, the bullish developments are coming together for gold and traders can begin to buy dips and sell put premiums."

If gold doesn't make it through 300, it won't be from lack of making a running start.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact.

The market is concluding it's buying on the rate raise "rumor". Now begins the buying on the lets-get-out-of-treasuries-without-losing-our-shirt rumor.

Rates going down means inflation. Inflation is bad for bonds. Everyone will try to get out of bonds AFTER the rate cut. Inflation is good for metals. Metals are liquid....

I like your calm and peaceful attitude.

But there should nevertheless be more engagement in sociology and politology to clarify the questions around ethnic and religious identity.

We do not come any closer to answers if we pretend not to see ethnic identities and religious goals, which might or might not be designed and headed towards domination and suppression of others.

I feel that the "anti-..." terror which is established by the culturally dominating attitude of political correctness supresses the engagement to find answers to the most important questions which our undigested century has brought up.

Look at my language: it remains high level. And not just because we are here supposed to discuss gold.

The 100 DMA of spot gold is at 291.1
The 200 DMA of spot gold is at 293.8

We have NOT closed above the 200 DMA yet.
We have not closed above the 100 DMA two consecutive times.
( I mean during htis move up in Sept98. )

December gold is about 2.80 above spot.

Gold is trading slightly below the 200 DMA right now and a close above would improve the outlook but only a CLOSE above last weeks high of $300.20 would really change my outlook. At this point I still believe we are headed much lower but I will admit I'm wrong and go long in a second if the market PROVES me wrong!!

The XAU 200 DMA of 72.10 seems right and I would think that a weekly close above this number would be bullish. I am watching it.

Again this does not mean I'm changing my bearish stance as I'm a super big bear. I'm just NOT a stuborn trader unwilling to change my views.
Good luck Gold, because your going to need it to get throught all the selling between here and $300.20!!!

History, indeed. History, indeed.

How about Oil?
How about Silver?
How about Copper?
BUT they went Long Central Bankers!!!!!!

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/slideframe.htm

Can someone PLEASE tell me what I'm missing here???????

10.53 MILLION OUNCES and GROWING
SELLING FOR $4 AN OUNCE

SYAMA RESOURCES: 6.7 MILLION+ OZ. AND GROWING
SYAMA PRODUCTION: 270,000 OZ. AT $21O/OZ, END OF 1998
SYAMA HEAP LEACH: 60,000 OZ. AT $130, MID-1999
MORILA: 240,000+ OUNCES AT ESTIMATED $118, YEAR 2000
MORILA RESOURCES: 2.2 MILLION+ OUNCES AND GROWING
LOULO: 140,000 OZ. AT $205, YEAR 2000
LOULO RESOURCES: 3.5 MILLION+ AND GROWING
LOULO OXIDE RESERVES: 500,000+ OUNCES AND GROWING
GOLDEN RIDGE: 80,000 OZ. PER YEAR POTENTIAL

Some profit taking by battered funds looking for a less leveraged but more comfortable position to be in.

You folks on the short gold train might want to get off at the next stop and change trains. Its looks like the action just passed you on the next track. I think I can. I think I can. That's the sound of the gold training pulling that load up 300 Hill.

I'm looking to buy Canadian gold coins and i'm wondering what you guys
think is the best deal? Maple leafs, Mountie, other?

I would also like to take a position in gold mines and i would appreciate
to hear about which one you prefer and why? Please mention such what to consider when comparing such fund holdings, i.e. things like forward selling, etc.

Please provide explanation, since i'm new at this game...

Tom

I wonder if the IMF and AG have a plan to bail Out all the small investors who have large losses in the markets - If these hedge funds had won there bets they walk away with the profits - when they lose big time they have the authorities step in and bail them out - to subsidize these bad bets will only aggravate the crash when it comes which I fear is not to far in the future. - cjk -

When you have time, use the viewing options at the top of the page and go back a day at a time. All of your questions will be answered many times over at Kitco University. cheers, Nick.

Ferocious battles in the pits. For many it means not just a profit or loss, but their very survival. Closing prices will mean margin calls or not. What is hours to some can be awfully short to ones fighting for their livlihood.

NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - Coca-Cola Co. said Thursday
that company executives plan to host a meeting Friday with
analysts in New York to discuss the effects of recent
international economic turmoil on the softdrinks giant.
Randy Donaldson, vice president and director of global
communications for Coke in Atlanta, told Reuters that company
officials would discuss third quarter earnings expectations,
but he declined to provide any guidance as to what analystswould be told.
The latest First Call consensus forecast puts Coke's third
quarter earnings per share at $0.39 and at $1.57 for the year.
-------
Does this remind anyone else of the incident that led to the demise of the "Nifty 50" bubble?
-EJ

Commentary from Bill Murphy of the Veneroso camp. Taken from a post over on S.I.

"I just put out a bulletin to our members. Buffet bought silver yesterday and is buying as I write this."

Bill

Thanx for your post to Squirrel. We are working on this 10 grainer coin with a date of 2000. The reason for 10 grains is there is a need for means of payment in gold as small as possible. After checking Mints around the worl, there are on ly 2 who can do this- NZ and Australia. So, this is the lower limit of todays tech. If the FRN becomes "worthless", what other means of payment will command as much respect as gold? If the FRN becomes a collector's item, the gold content of this coin will still be worth "something". Practically, it would not need weighing and would be the smallest means of payment that could be added up instead of being cut, filed and weighed. It's close, stay in touch, Charlie

LTCM had large positions in US mortgages e.g., which suffer from ( gasp ) lower interest rates... FT says ( one full page of articles + special mentions in Lex, etc. ) that a large portion of LTCM's positions are "frozen" in the system... "Liar's Poker" indeed... Folly, Frenzy and the first gold clutches of Fear. Sharefin, are you back from the mountain?

Does that explain why Coeur D'Alene went up over 9% yesterday?

Gollum: Yes, the markets certainly have discounted this debt. Probably in early 98. But -- my point is that either the creditors have absorbed the losses, or it has secretly been rolled over somewhere. If neither, even the SEAsia debt will bounce around in the AEther somewhere, and come back to bite us.

I agree that the South American situation is far more serious. Closer to home. Don't you find it interesting how quickly the Hedge funds get support when they get in trouble? Recently there have been entire countries that don't get that kind of service. It is clear that bad debt come in many flavors, and certain kinds get prefferred treatment.

Just why is the Central Bank of the United States LEADING the restructuring of Long Term Capital ? Allan critizes Hong Kong for buying its' stock market and turns around and BUYS a blind pool of derivatives. Perhaps someone should ask Allan whom he is trying to bailout. While we are at it, maybe Allan could discuss Fed's/Treasury's activity in the Gold market. I must admit - this bailout makes me very nervious.

XAU breaking to new highs...let's see if the gold price can hold up in here...if it does, we should get continued buying of gold stocks thru the day...GO GOLD!!!!

.

Very interesting considerations. Since we now know we can produce 10 grain gold coins and 10/+ grain silver coins, would you please dial this in to your comments ? I have to agree with a lot of what you said, but are you basing that on existing coins or the much smaller ones? Thanx, Charlie

I appreciate this post very much. Right from the horses mouth, evidently in a very fine pasture. I can see many implications here. Could you please email me ? cdevoto@abts.net

Rangold has strong resources, growing production but has also very high costs at Syama and a poor balance sheet. That explain the low market cap.
Once gold is firmly established above $325 allowing them to start turning up some decent cash flows...Rangold is likely to soar. But there is a risk, like all SA with high costs and poor balance sheet, RR can go belly up if gold make a prolonged detoru below $250.

That is why many NA golds looks overvalued relative to the SA gold. Many NA Golds still have very strong cash flows and great balance sheet with a lot of cash.

Date: Wed Sep 23 1998 18:41
Squirrel ( Obsidian@15:21 - Golden independence should not have to be a dream! ) ID#280214:
Obtaining .9999 Gold? Just order some from Bart. http://www.kitco.com/gold.sellbar.html Whether by bar, coin or grain - he'll sell you .9999 Gold. This dispenses with all the acid & caustics and lab stuff.
Minting - getting the dies made is an expense. But you could just get a set of number punches and stamp your slugs. Regarding purity - only Gold and the other PGMs have densities in that range {uranium and plutonium do too but I wouldn't worry about 'em and tungsten is too darn hard for even pros to make coins out of!}
Sure I'd accept somebodies slugs without pause - well almost without - I'd drop 'em in a fine graduated cylinder or other precision glassware to get their volume and then weigh them. Anything close to 19 grams/cc is close enough.
With a quad beam scale good to .01 grams I will accept gold grain and gold dust for trade any day. Ohaus makes one. But small gold coins would be a lot easier to deal with - even if they were 5 grains each with some kind of weight and purity mark on 'em.
If a credible mint mark is required it is NOT that hard to find mint to do them for us - if we, as enthusiastic die-hard Goldbugs looking for ways to invest our Gold to make money, ponied up a few hundred ounces for a mint run big enough to bring the price down to a reasonable level.
I am sometimes exasperated with those {not directed at you} who talk about Gold backed money and decry the fact that Gold is no longer coined for circulation - when DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT is something we Kitcoites can do THIS YEAR and the details are an e-mail away at swyers@amigo.net or cdevoto@abts.net
IF WE WANT SOMETHING DONE RIGHT, WE MUST DO IT OURSELVES! Isn't that the spirit of entrepreneurship? Those who only want to bet on sure things should play with something else. {Again, I am not picking on you, but just the naysayers.}

It didn't really get discounted until it began to look like someone was going to do something about it or at least pay serious attention to it, either G7 or BOJ or whoever. It looks now like the Japanes government is going to save the big Japanese bank ( s ) . They are just quibbling over the details. Whether they nationalize it or what ever, it's going to cost the Japanese tax payer.

South America is indeed the place to watch for the moment, but I think the G7 has their sight focused on it.

The message the market gets is: Yes there are problems, some of them really big problems, but the really big ones are going to be fixed by bailouts.

Good luck on your shorts glenn1 You are going to need it. How anybody could be super bearish on gold at this point in time with the Fed starting to ease and POG as cheap as it is absolutely astounds me. Cautious perhaps, but super bearish?

Perhpas you could lower your forecast to $175. That should assure us of a powerful blast over $300.

If Bill Murphy says Buffett is buying silver, I think it's time to switch into gold.

now the heavily hedged producers will be well advised to follow suit.

Will the Telegraph Office be open this weekend - will you be [IN]?
I was thinking of a taking nice scenic drive - the aspens are turning to gold, are they not?

If LTC is really short 250-400 tons of gold, then the gold market will be very nervous and the weak shorts will cover soon or will be squeezed, this is just the kind of news that STARTS Bull markets...sheer fear!!! The fact that LTC may have to liquidated their positions, in some amount or all, will add to the fear of being caught on the wrong side...If you are short gold, your pain index is about to rise!!!

September 24, 1998

U.S. House to vote on fast track Friday--Gingrich

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on Thursday that the House of Representatives will vote on fast track trade legislation on Friday and called on President Clinton to drum up support among Democrats.

"They ( White House ) have undermined and tried to block the vote on fast track even though the president went everywhere in the world saying he was for it," the Georgia Republican told reporters. "It ( the House vote ) is going to happen tomorrow, and he ought to spend this afternoon, this evening and tomorrow morning calling Democrats, and he ought to, frankly, put his muscle where his speech is," Gingrich said.

The House was set to vote late last year on fast track, which would allow the president to negotiate trade agreements that Congress could either approve or reject, but not amend. But at the last minute the bill did not go to a vote when it became clear it would not pass.

It was uncertain whether there would be enough votes to pass fast track on Friday. Gingrich said 40 or so Democratic votes were needed.

"We're going to deliver a lot of Republican votes, we'll have an overwhelming Republican majority," Gingrich said.

He said Republicans had more votes in favor of fast track this time than last year.

.............................

Multilateral Agreement on Investment

Investor-State Suits: The New Star Chamber

Under the MAI, foreign investors have an unqualified right to sue governments under rules of international arbitration that are so secretive that they would rival those of the Star Chamber Court abolished three centuries ago.

It is precisely this process that Ethyl Corporation is relying on in its suit against the Canadian government.

That case is now proceeding behind closed doors without public notice, without access to the documents filed, and without participatory rights for any other party.

It is difficult to overstate the seriousness of the challenges posed by this investment regime to environmental and other societal goals, including that of democratic governance.
http://www.vcn.bc.ca/wcel/mai/welcome.html

Did any one read the article yesterday about European interest rates - the head of the Euro Central Bank says there rates are already lower than those in the US and he is not recommending that they be lowered any further.

We are seeing and hearing a lot of Rubin and Greenspan in the last few days - they seem to be trying to talk upthe markets - I am sure they know a lot more about the shaky hedge funds then they are letting out.

With the Japanese Banks also on the brink with untold huge liabilities anything could happen probably why they were in New York talking to Clinton this past week - cjk -

A pretty long-handled inverted hammer in a 5th wave forming in the GCZ8 hourly chart. My guess is that that's about it for this run up.

glen that was an awesome technical analysis, I concur, and am sick of trying to pick the bottom on this, and want some PROOF the trend has changed. Today's strength is a step in the right direction, but I want to see $314 before I even start to get excited.

Canadain coins may I suggest you do your shopping for coins at J&M Coins, I've been buying there for years, they have the best selection and pricing from what I can see. Whatever you do don't go to Eatons or some other place that charges you more retail premium. Canadian Silver Maple Leafs are good. They sell for about $10 each. Last year less than 200,000 were produced and now the '97 coins sell for over $15, a 50% jump because of the low minting. Could happen to the current year as well.
Regards

Just heard on CNBC that Long Term Credit is short
120,000 Gold Futures Contacts - Just think this only
one of thousands of such funds. - cjk -

The Kitco quote page shows +3.80 and the top of this page shows +1.60. So, which one do I believe? What am I missing? Thanks CG

That's a mear $36 Billion dollars in gold...I wonder what a short covering of 120 million OZs of gold would do to the price...and I wonder how many stops it would run along the way....at this point it's hard to believe that Princton Economic Inst.'s $200/oz gold has a chance...I think that LTC's buyback would qualify for a central bank...don't you??? Or better yet, I wonder who's central bank just went under???

I'm a short term trader, too, but I just can't depart this gold market, when I think that a rebound is just getting started. We've been going down for 18 years, and just because we have rebounded a SMALL amount doesn't mean that the move is all over.
However, I do respect your views.
Highhopes

How do you know LTC is short 120,000 gold contracts?

Just pierced 73

Sept. 22 ( EIRNS ) --GROWTH OF U.S. BANK DERIVATIVES. The following table shows the growth of "off-balance-sheet derivatives," as reported by the FDIC, since 1990:

I n c r e a s e ( $ trillions )
Year Derivatives in $ as %
1990 $ 6.81
1991 $ 7.34 $0.53 7.8%
1992 $ 8.76 $1.43 19.4%
1993 $11.87 $3.11 35.5%
1994 $15.77 $3.90 32.9%
1995 $17.17 $1.39 8.8%
1996 $20.30 $3.13 18.3%
1997 $25.38 $5.08 25.0%
2Q98* $28.84 $3.46 13.6%

* six-month data [jph]

I just meant TODAY'S runup.

The price at the top of this frame is for the DATE/TIME indicated. The spot price in the top frame changes ( when everything works ) with the current Spot. In other words, the topmost price is the most recent.

Ann Yager, I believe that was her name, on CNBC says that we could easily do $300 to $320 on gold, based on seasonal strength.
My thoughts: Everybody knows that the summer is worst time for commodities ( gold, oil, etc. ) Sometimes, gold gets strong in November, but I always find that the first of the new year can and usually is strong for gold.

Highhopes

Predictions - today's closing POG? Considering that we didn't go purple yesterday, I predict that the rally will hold and we stop at 293.40 today. Silver - 5.13.

By Daniel Bases NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - Prices of American Depository
Receipts were mixed Thursday, but traders took a cautious tone
on the news that both commercial banks and the New York Federal
Reserve have gathered together to bail-out the multi-billion
dollar hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management LP.
Traders in the ADR market remarked that LTCM's exposure to
non-U.S. markets was having a negative impact on prices, after
it was disclosed that $3.75 billion had been committed to keep
the fund from going belly-up because of heavy losses incurred
in the global financial turmoil.
-----
LTCM is one fund in trouble. A logical guess might be that there are others. Has the market already taken this into account? I do not believe so, since if the possible exposure ranges from low to catastrophic risk, and and the only information avaailable now is that a few funds are exposed, keeping the risk assumptions closer to the low end of the range. One or two more hedge fund fire drills will, however, start to move the needle into the high end of the risk range and the market will react to this new, unexpected source of systemic risk.
-EJ

glenn, get out of the way of the runaway train ............

LTC is not short 125,000 contracts on the Comex.

there is a total 175,000 contract open intrest

LTC is not short 125,000 contracts on the Comex.

there is only 175,000 contract open intrest

comex silver stocks now stand at 74,000,000 plus. wonder how many small investors are buying 100oz bars and putting them under their bed. have noted consistant down days in comex silver stocks over last month, but no siginicant increase even once. maybe people are moving and hiding, but there still may be something here. i will watch the silver stocks more closely.

XAU is now above the 200 Day MA and is looking good in here...also...the BKX ( Bank index ) is down 30+ which means that the banks are not being well received today in light of the LTC situation ) ...this is good for gold...as the financials crumble, uncertainty will drive people to gold!!! Go Gold...hope is still alive!

LTC is not short 125,000 contracts on the Comex.

there is only 175,000 contracts open intrest

A consortium of investment banks, headed by Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Union Bank of Switzerland is bailing out the Long Term Capital Management L.P., a hedge fund with heavy derivative bets in various markets. We'll spend today's report on the situation at LTCM as could be go down as the seminal event in the upcoming bear market for equities and the dollar.

Reportedly LTCM, headed by gambling addict, John Merriweather, and advised by derivatives gurus and Nobel price winning economists, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, has lost upwards of a $100 billion playing the derivatives markets. An analysts quoted in Reuters this morning summarized what was going on behind the scenes at LTCM: "Obviously these guys had greed beyond any measure of fear and they are not even paying the consequences. The banking system is having to bail them out because they are so scared that if ( LTCM ) goes down it will take the banks down.'' In a scathing article this morning the Washington Post said LTCM's "swift decline was propelled in part by its strategy of borrowing heavily to finance large market bets. The heavy borrowing, or high leverage, meant that once the fund suffered losses, it was forced to sell some of its other holdings to meet margin calls from creditors concerned that the fund's collateral was no longer sufficient to meet minimum loan requirements. Being forced to sell while markets were in turmoil only compounded the fund's losses -- and added to turmoil both in emerging markets and in the United States, where it was easier to unload investments such as Treasury bonds."

There are unconfirmed rumors that the fund has a heavy short position in gold. We have said for years here at USAGOLD in in our monthly newsletter that gold has been held down by derivatives players on Wall Street and London playing the short side of the market. We have also said that the next equities crash will be blamed on derivatives. We will stick with both those observations. Up until recently both were unprovable tenants because of the secrecy of these operations. LTCM in our opinion is only one sinkhole in the derivatives' swamp. What we see here is likely to become one story among many as this whole mess unfolds. One thing is certain: It is unlikely that if LTCM held large short gold positions, it would take out more. My guess is that their entire operation will be hold.

One of the interesting aspects of this Federal Reserve Bank supervised bailout -- itself an anomaly ( why would the Fed bail out a hedge fund established to gamble away its investors money? ) -- is the fact that LTCM borrowed money from the big banks to wage its bets. This is a company headed by a man who, according to the Washington Post this morning, bet millions on a Wall Street bar room game of liar's poker -- a symptom of the arrogance that permeated LTCM's operations. Here is a question for you: How do the participating financial firms expect to get re-paid by a company that has no source of income except from its potential winnings? With a country, or even a bank, that goes belly-up you can merge it, hope that it starts to make money again, etc. At least there's hope. Where's the money going to come from to pay back the bailout of LTCM? More gambling?? According to press reports this morning, the bail bondsmen are going to hold the derivatives positions hoping that time will wash all. But these are losing positions! Big time losing positions! And that is a forlorn hope. It is likely to get worse. In short, this strategy is not going to work in our opinion. Let's face it, doesn't this approach sound haunting familiar? Think Japan and its moribund banks. They are now joined by at least one moribund hedge fund with more likely to follow.

It should be noted that the firms participating in the bailout are all heavy derivatives players themselves, as a result, one would have to understand this apparent act of kindness for what it is -- enlightened self interest. If LTCM goes, they go. $100 billion is no small amount by anyone's standards, not even the Federal Reserve's blank check would easily cover. Most of the news stories this morning are warning that the LTCM collapse could spread rapidly to other hedge funds and undermine the viability of the banks that have loaned this hedge fund the money to carry out these high stakes gambles.

That position in physical gold looks better by the day.

We're depending on people like y'all to keep the bull market going once it really gets going. You'll jump in after the move is already half over. Trading is not for the timid.

We've had a $25 move off the spike low and we are now consolidating for the move up.I'm 100% convinced that we've hit at least a medium term bottom based on the look of the weekly chart. The daily chartis also very bullish given the action of the last few days that failed to move any lower
Unfortunately my timing is usually off, but my guess is that the high of 9/11 will be take out
tomorrow. Where do we stop next? The move off the low was about $25. Add 25 to 290 for 315 or add 25 to 300 or-my preference-add 25 to 295 for 320. This level should only afford a short breather.

For similar ooking chart formations, check out the silver weekly 5/95-2/98 cp to daily gold 12/95 to present. The Platinum mar-aug 85 cp to the daily gold.

One telltale sign of a bottom in these pm charts that has occurred repeatedly ove the last 10 years
is the spike bottom off a long sideways move where prices seem to drop off a plateau and then bounce up immediately.
Check out Jul 1,85 plat, jun 92 weekly palladium,
the best-feb-mar 93 silver and gold.
And of course jul 97 weekly silver.
In each of these formations the highs of the move exceeded the highs of the double bottom formation and worked toward the point from which the double bottom fell-monthly silver the high of 8/90 is where the move off the double bottom headed for in7/93.
Currently, weekly gold will head for the high of the week of 10/03/97 of this double bottom. Look for a significant retracement from anywhere near this 338 level. In some charts this 338 level would be exceeded slightly. In others the highs of the week of 10/24/97 would offer resistance-324. Such decisions on where to get out are not for the fainthearted.
If you wait of for the 314 level to get in you are going to lose 75% of the move.

Can "sell stops" be placed on NASDAQ? In the past, one had to use mental stops, since Nasdaq did not allow the placement of actual "sell stops."
Thanks!

Highhopes

Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
September 24, 1998

"Mahathir's own analysis was fundamentally different. In his view, the IMF offered no solution at all. The amount of money and credit being offered was completely insufficient to solve Malaysia's problems. Moreover, the IMF's price would create social chaos in Malaysia. For example, the IMF required a rigorous program of closing insolvent banks, writing off bad loans and decreasing available credit accordingly. Having seen the consequences of these policies in Indonesia, Mahathir's position was that, since the IMF provided no real solution anyway, it followed that it made no sense to pay the price."


We tend not to view it in this light, but USG has been DEMANDING that Japan adopt pretty much the same "cure", without-of course-offering to contribute funds. Strange old world, isn't it? {:- )

The beginning of panics for us did start in hidden places the week of the 14th of Sept. We are at the threshold of a time when the once stable and prosperous United States of America becomes just the opposite.

Please take cover and take care. We have not yet seen the reality we have entered.

My I suggest cash in hand, metal in hand, little or no debt as a starter?

Convulsive changes and illusions await us. Let's not be fooled by appearances.

LTCM investments/risks have simply been transfered to the lenders, not liquidated. Where did the 100's of billion of $ come from? Insurance funds, Bank funds, Industrial corporations, International trading groups, VWI's ( very wealthy individuals ) . All hedge funds have a similar tale to tell. But they have not yet told their lenders.

And if on e fund is short 120,000 contracts in gold .. what then of the others? Now we may know why gold has been so blasphemed, just in time to watch it cremate its tormentors.

Go Gold!

Burn you short SOB's, burn. Light up the night with the fat from your wasted frames. We await you demise.

I'm no longer worried,'' said Seth Glickenhaus, senior partner at Glickenhaus &Co. and a 64-year Wall Street veteran who warned all year that shares were inflated. ``Now everyone is bearish, but the public is inevitably wrong. They get optimistic at the wrong time, and frightened at the wrong time. The U.S. market is not in bad shape.''

Some more stops are going to get hit real soon unless this is contained. Interesting...very.

Tom

12:16 [SI=Z8] SILVER BOOSTED BY DECLINING COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCK LEVELS.
Also Bill Murphy says Bufffet buying.

Yet silver really hasn't moved pricewise even as much as one would expect just by coattailing gold.

IS this a setup?

XAU up 40+% over last mo.'s lows.

First week of Sept.'s accelerating mining stocks on 3- to 5-fold increases in daily volume, was the "ignition phase"
of the current lift-off, in gold prices.

This new launch into the universe of possibilities, will
ultimately 'discover' and 'land' in a new world,
a world with an international global monetary & credit system,
backed by, and convertible to gold.....
( -but don't hold your breath ) .

Depending on how long it takes for 'the powers that be',
to figure this out,
come clean,
tighten belts,
and bite bullets......
the 'trajectory' of this new gold bull market 'missile'....
could reach & go far higher than the known universe
of investment markets ever considered possible within
their limited galaxies of political-, monetary-
and credit-corruption.
.....................................................

Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 20:00
goldfevr ( Economic Winter........and the warming trend of gold. ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sept. 3rd & 4th's accelerating share prices in mining stocks,
on 3 to 5 times average daily volume, set's the stage.....
the fuse is lit....
the horses are out of the starting gate....
( for real.....this time......no more false starts )

hold on for the ride,
it's gonna be one hel-of-a race.

Date: Fri Sep 04 1998 11:07
goldfevr ( 'Economic Winter' - approaching.... ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The market in "golden overcoats" ... is improving.....
and will become 'brisk'....
as autumn unfolds.
...................................

deja vu --
from 9/27/97, kitco post:

"When the tent collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first;
but the side-posts ...
and even the stakes."
............................................

for another perspective:

The 'Titanic' IS sinking ....
no matter the wishful thinking and the denial
of the blind leading the blind...
( as they mostly ignore the 'golden overcoats' & the
'gold-lifeboats' )

Pride goeth before the fall... --
'Just how long did civilization,
believe it could get away with it:
creating a global economy....
based on paper currencies & artificial credit
created by the trillions...... out of thin-air?'

"It is not nice to fool mother-nature"....
especially when it takes the form of --
'mass-counterfeiting'....
by the international collective of
political & financial "leaders & experts",
and their corrupted institutions.

A few 'gold-lifeboats' ...
are beginning to be set-out ... upon -
the stormy, trecherous, world-wide seas of:

red-ink,
crashing-currencies, and
imploding-debt....

but by only by a few, informed, hearty, freedom-loving,
visionary souls.

Meanwhile, a few of them have reported that -
'a sunami - tidal-wave'
is approaching U.S. shores.

Return to Kitco Homepage

DEC GOLD @ 297.20 // DEC. SILVER @ 5.15

I remember your post and indeed thought you made a good point, that is that a gold bar with a Swiss Hallmark on it may be confiscated in the future.

The abuse you had to take from people who misinterpreted your comments was shocking.

The more I read about LTC's failure the more it reminds me of a situation every begining futures traders went through. ( Yes, I do imply that LTC and not its lenders do behave like somebody who started trading futures yesterday ) .

I am sure that the story is all too familiar to anybody who ever traded futures. No matter how many books you read and how many times you have heard about it, you do not really understand it until you experienced it yourself. This is when one learns things about one's emotions that were totally unknown before.

1. You start trading with some pre-concieved motion of how market will behave ( Mistake #1 )

2. Because you are convinced that your pre-concieved ideas are 100% correct, you do not need to plan exit strategy other than exit with profits ( Mistake #2 )

3. Market turns against you. Rather than objectively re-evaluate your pre-concieved ideas, in a fanatical streak you re-affirm your beliefs and assume that there is still no need to plan exit with a loss. ( Mistake #3 )

4. Market turns more against you. The only re-affirms your convictions that this is only temporary. ( Mistake #4 )

5. Market sentiment changes for a while. Rather than liquidate with small losses, you are at the top of the world ( see I WAS right ) . ( Mistake #5 )

6. Market turns against you with a vengence. You are stunned and do nothing. ( Mistake #6 )

7. Your trading capittal evaporates and you get a margin call. Rather than face the music you borrow money to hung there longer. ( Mistake #7 - I NEVER did that one )


Well what is a lesson from all this? Derivatives trading is not about models, pre-concieved motions of market direction. It is about RISK-MANAGEMENT!!!

Having said that, how is it possible that the nation's largest banks loan $100 Billion to be used as margin in derivatives trading? Can there be anything more STUPID?!

Here is a message from a humble citizen to you, the wonder-boys of Wall Street:

THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING!!!

XAU above it's 200 day MA...if it closes above there we would be looking for more upside potential...time will tell, but the gold stocks are constantly being bought all day...the chart is a solid move up with good volumes on the gold stocks...I love those hedge funds that fail!!! Too bad that the principles of the funds will have to sell their estates in Greenich, Conneticut when all is said and done...pitty, most of them didn't even have to commute to work in NY city....I wonder if Martha Stuart is involved in LTC?

Hedge fund gets help
http://cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9809/23/longterm/

XAU did a slow arc at 74.5 now back to 73.8

The smarter they are the harder they err.

FED indications of cutting rates reflects the buying of time
prior to the ship sinking. SOS...SOS...

If one of the signs of the gambling tendencies of John Merriwether was that he bet millions on a Wall Street bar room game of liar's poker, who were the guys he was betting with?

Remember, remember, the depths of September.

I believe you called a retrace of yesterday's gains this a.m. There's still plenty of time, eh? -124 and dropping like a, well, sick stock market.
-EJ

Harvard University reported a loss of over 1.3 billion in the equities markets since last July maybe they better give AG a call after alli its another worthy cause - cjk -

The Ugly Truth about the Anti Defamation
League ( ADL )
Harvest Trust and its Trustees believe in Liberty and Freedom for all People,
without exceptions, regardless of race, religion, or place of ancestral origin.
Harvest Trust supports the Jewish People and their legitimate organizations.
This link has absolutely nothing to do with anti-Semitism or racism. The ADL
is an organization that manipulates our Jewish Citizens and the general
population of America by applying the term "anti-Semitic" to any and all
opposition in order to fulfill the secret agenda of Karl Marx's dream of a
socialist world. The subversive ADL has worked diligently to control
politicians, the domestic and foreign policy of the united States of America,
and destroy the Constitutionally guaranteed Rights of all Americans including
Jewish Americans. The ADL has become what it pretends to oppose... it has
become a strong-arm of modern tyranny. We will undoubtedly be labeled
anti-Semitic... indeed we may even be burned out or murdered for daring to
speak the truth... but speak the truth we will no matter the consequences. Set
yourself Free... click the links below and don't stop reading until you have
consumed it all. As always we recommend you listen to everyone, read
everything, but believe absolutely nothing unless you can verify it in your
program of due dilligence through your research.
This series of 8 historic broadcasts was taken in whole or in part from
investigations conducted by the CAJI News Service, the Intelligence Service,
Jews For the Preservation of Firearms Ownership ( JFPO ) , reports published
by The Executive Intelligence Review entitled "The Ugly Truth About The
ADL", and "Dope Inc." Please distribute copies to everyone you know.

ADL #1
ADL #2
ADL #3
ADL #4
ADL #5
ADL #6
ADL #7
ADL #8

Near real time graph-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=1d

We wait to see what is written...starting to turn ugly for the herd. Containment...?

Maybe a rate cut means there are real problems. Derivatives....ughhh.

Tom

hursday September 24 1:22 PM EDT

Long-Term Capital Pulls Up, Raises Liquidity Fears

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The multibillion-dollar bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management
L.P. highlights Wall Street's fears that a credit crunch may be looming for U.S. investment funds suffering
losses due to global market turmoil.

The bailout, in which 15 firms took an equity stake in Long-Term Capital by committing $3.75 billion to
the fund managers for three years, comes at a time that America is awash in capital from global safe-haven
flows.

Long-Term Capital late Wednesday said it reached the agreement in principle after all-day talks with
commercial and investment banks and that the capital injection would raise the net asset value of its
portfolio to more than $4 billion.

The marathon talks included a meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Fed's regulatory arm
for the banking industry.

``It is a watershed event. The Fed is pressuring commercial and investment banks to bail out a hedge fund
because of concern about a financial market meltdown,'' said Joan Solotar, securities analyst at Donaldson,
Lufkin and Jenrette.

While Long-Term Capital did not immediately disclose the details of the agreement, market sources told
Reuters 15 U.S. and foreign commercial and investment banks would contribute a total of $3.75 billion in
installments of $100 million to $300 million each with a commitment to keep the money in for three years.

A Long-Term Capital spokesman stressed the injection of capital was ``new equity, not a loan.''

But a market source said Long-Term Capital's acknowledgment of a capitalization of about $4 billion after
an injection of $3.75 billion indicated the hedge fund had all but ran out of money.

Long-Term Capital Chief Executive Officer John Meriwether said the hedge fund he founded after leaving
Salomon Brothers in 1991 ``greatly appreciates the willingness of the consortium to provide capital which
we are confident will stabilize our funds and enable us to continue to be active in the marketplace.''

The very survival of Long-Term Capital came into question Wednesday as market players questioned
whether Meriwether -- once called a ``Master of the Universe'' as the successful head of Treasury trading
at Salomon Brothers -- could raise the funds to save his firm, said to have lost 80 percent or more of its
capital, which was estimated at $4.8 billion early this year.

``With the people they have there, it's almost unthinkable that Long-Term Capital could go under. But that
was the talk Wednesday,'' said one bond trader at a European brokerage firm.

The trader noted the 30-year Treasury bond markedly underperformed the Treasury market Wednesday, a
sign that ''people were trying to raise cash for Long-Term Capital'' by selling the U.S. benchmark.

All other Treasury maturities rallied Wednesday as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated to a Senate
committee a federal funds rate cut may be on the horizon.

Meriwether's strategy was based on arbitrage on market spreads -- a seemingly prudent approach that led
former Fed Vice Chairman David Mullins to join Long-Term Capital in 1994.

``Risk management is the key to success,'' Mullins said in an interview soon after joining the firm that also
attracted luminaries such as Nobel-prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980924/bs/longterm_1.html


Thursday September 24 2:21 PM EDT

Switzerland's UBS To Take Loss

ZURICH, Switzerland ( AP ) - Turmoil on world markets will force United Bank of Switzerland to take an
after-tax charge of between 500 million Swiss francs ( $360 million ) and 1 billion francs ( $720 million ) in
the third quarter of 1998.

The loss will leave the bank only a modest net profit for the second half. The company blamed turmoil in
emerging markets for a shortage of liquidity, which in turn harmed UBS's fixed-income business in those
markets.

UBS also cited wide volatility in stock indexes in the United States and Europe, which hurt the value of
UBS' stock holdings. Since turmoil in the markets intensified in late August, UBS ``has suffered substantial
declines in earnings,'' the bank said in statement released Thursday.

UBS' businesses in the emerging markets of Russia, Southeast Asia and Latin America produced a drop in
income of 630 million francs ( $453 million ) .

However, the bank said it didn't expect these developments to recur and is hoping the world economy would
escape prolonged, serious weakening. If those factors play out as hoped, the bank said it would suffer ``no major deterioration in the group's structural power.''

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/980924/financial/stories/ubs_outlook_1.html


Comment: Scholes is a PARTNER in LTCB, if these guys can not figure out derivatives ...i.e. Black-Scholes equation.....nobody can, faith in "mathematical magic" of derivative positions will quickly evaporate along with willingness of Older head to chance their arms.....CRRRRRUUUNCCCH!
No derivative equation allows for total loss of CONfidence.

complete retracement- and more looks possible

The dam has burst! Head for the hills!

Long-Term Capital Pulls Up, Raises Liquidity Fears

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980924/bs/longterm_1.html
...
``What does this mean for many less sophisticated funds around the world?'' added Turner. ``This reflects what the attitude toward risk is going to be as we heard credit lines were being pulled for the larger institutions that were merely rumored to have problems.''
...

Brazil down 4+%-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^BVSP&d=1d Mexico off 4+%-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^MXX&d=1d

If you want to really embarass yourself, you need to post predictions on the home page of quote.com where hundreds of thousands of folks see it, like this:

Market Update Thursday Sep 24, 1998 03:17 PM EST
The DJIA ( sm ) is currently down 70 points, succumbing to some moderate profit-taking after yesterday's 250 point gain. As I said earlier, analysts expect the market to keep moving up as investors factor in the potential gains from a rate cut. The DJIA ( sm ) broke through a crucial barrier at 8100 yesterday and the next significant point of resistance is 8300-8400.
----
Next to the prediction, DJIASM 8005.85 -148.56

Wups.
-EJ

Jimmy Rogers is usually on CNBC on Fridays. I'll bet he'll have a lot to say about LTC hedge fund bailout. You'll recall that he is not a believer in bailouts. Bankrupcies should fall where they may.

Highhopes

was just made by the "big boys of Wall Street." Bailing out of a
Hedge Fund is the beginning of the end. It just signals to everyone
that there is something REALLY WRONG behind the derivitives game. This
is simply going to encourage people to start dumping their stocks and
bonds and invest in gold. This will worsen the losses sooner.

This is like the passage of the Smoot Hartley Bill. It will set
off a cascading secquence of defaults over the next 6 months that will
surprise many investors. In 12 to 15 months the US will look like
Asia--just a relic of its former self.

It does cross my mind, however, that the ONLY way for the debt
debacle to be held off is for commodity prices to rise so that Foreign
countries can repay their loans. The Fed has OK'ed and signaled the future. It is here now.

Gold has started a hugh bull market that will carry the gold stocks
far higher than anyone, including gold bugs, think. Hold on for the
ride it is going to be more fun than we have ever had.

Thanks, GD

That figure of 120,000 Gold Futures Contracts short
by Long Term Credit was just repeated on CNBC - cjk -

System going down, bye... what timing!
DOW off 2.27% ( -182 points )
XAU up 7.83% ( 5.46 points )

Could you please post the URL you are using for the time stamped news bullets? TIA

Marshall, I have never been involved in any discussion with you heretofore. I think you have me confused with Retired Soldier. Since I have not found you to be correct about anything else you have posted, I am not surprised that you cannot tell two soldiers apart. I do not have a dog in this fight and wouldnt take one as a gift.

Solving the worlds financial problems. Talk about a stock buy back.

Here is the XAU-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1d And look at the unhedged HUI index-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^HUI&d=1d

Dow extends losses, worries of financial
NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - The Dow industrials extended
their losses late session to hit new lows for the day amid
fears of further fallout in the U.S. financial sector from
emerging market turmoil.
Wall Street stopped in its tracks after Wednesday's sharp
rally to digest news of a bail out of multibillion dollar hedge
fund Long-Term Capital Management, by the New York Federal
Reserve and a batch of commercial banks.

Of course, why else would gold playing banks be invovlved in the bailout....these are the guys who will next have to explain where the 8,000 ton short is going to come from....UBS, Goldman, JPMorgan, Merill...
Reason FRB and Swiss and Brit bank authorities have moved so quickly...they are saying to gold longs....
"we have big pockets behind our hired guns."

Looks like gold shorts are going to take it to their death...one already has....their position ( 121 Kounces short? ) will slowly be unwound over the next week...should be interesting.

take a look at the past.......SEE the future....

http://www.bmiquotes.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?source=core/bmi

don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade......

Hello? Hello? Anybody still alive?

Wall St tumbles on fears of global turmoil fallout
By Huw Jones NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks tumbled Thursday after the New York Fed and banks stepped in to bail out a hedge
fund, sending a chill down Wall Street, and leaving investors
to wonder who will be the next victim of global turmoil.
"That was a wake-up call, unfortunately," said Arthur
Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.
"It took some of the euphoria of monetary policy easing in
the near term out of the market."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended unofficially off
152.42 points, or 1.87 percent, at 8001.99.

Thursday September 24, 4:35 PM

Clinton, Saudi prince to discuss Gulf oil flow

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - President Clinton and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah will discuss
ways to ensure to uninterrupted flow of oil through the Gulf, White House spokesman Mike McCurry said
Thursday.

Clinton and the crown prince, who meet at the White House for talks due to begin shortly before 1 p.m.
EDT ( 1700 GMT ) , wish "to ensure that the Gulf continues be be a reliable source for oil," McCurry said.

McCurry said Clinton wanted to discuss "some of the efforts" the United States and Saudi Arabia are
taking to maintain the flow of oil through the region, but declined to discuss any specific aspects.

The crown prince, heir to the Saudi throne, arrived in the United States on Wednesday for a seven-day
visit.

He is scheduled to meet with other administration officials in the coming days for what a State Department
official called a "get-to-know-you visit."

King Fahd has been ailing and is expected to be succeeded by Prince Abdullah.

http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19980924/financial/906654900-0000002632.html

1 ) Look for rumor or announcement of CB Gold sales in the next 24 hours. 2 ) Big tumble in the Nikkei tonight. Down 8.5% 3 ) Coca Cola to fizzle big time tomorrow. Actually, it may have done so today, haven't checked yet. 4 ) Within 48 hours, another hedge fund is discovered to have huge derivative losses. No idea which one. *These are just guesses. If you act on these, you are F*in' nuts.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/headlines.htx

Installing a 300 mhz at Mom's house on da' ranch........just checkin' in....looks like we made some money today!!!....cattle out da' window...life is good....Mom's cooooool. G&P to YA!!!!

Those aren't bad guesses, with the possible exception of the one about CB gold sales. I have lately noticed increased rumors and news of CB gold buys, cancelled sales, increased reserves for the Euro, etc.

Maybe they've trapped all the sjorts and leasors they need and now they are going to spring the trap.

KRP7 - KRP8 mate in three!

That is indeed how it works. Instructive to see the internationals jumped into the fray...two FRENCH banks and goodness knows the French banks are loath [and usually unable] to "save" anyone from anything much. But they ALL have a common goal at stake in this one: if the gold hedges fall apart, Euro crumbles into cookie dust. White knuckle time. We watch, yes?

Oscar Lafontaine hits again: "Immediately after a change of power, a government led by Gerhard Schroeder would start an initiative together with London and Paris to achieve stabilisation of international financial markets... It is important to reorder the international monetary system with more stable exchange rates."

Old Soldier, Sorry you got dragged into this by mistake, Ol' Marshall has said he is a retired soldier/airman or something himself. But he doesn't seem to know much about it, was confused on DEFCON/Threatcon and the levels of each . Must have been e REMF. And a CAT IV to boot.

Marshall, I am a member of B'Nai Brith, Jews for the Preservation of Firearms,,DAV,VFW, and many other organizations so I know about the ADL, they are not what you say they are, you have been misinformed sir. Do not tell me you love Isreal when you made the comments you did this morning, the people who are most against us will try to hide it. YOU CANT. Blaming the MOSSAD and Mr Netanyahu for setting POTUS up with Monica Lewinski is ludicrous. Now before Bart gets mad at me I will state that this is my last communication to you. I have been taken to task by a good friend whom I will not name for jumping on you this morning and I apologize to him since he does not share my enthusiam for a good fight now and then. SHALOM

Sough'ta like the Pinkertons were when the Steel and RR Barons were controling the country.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 24

-- TOTALS
Gold 924,724 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 74,055,081 - 758,663 troy ounces
Copper 63,945 + 1,406 short tons

``Risk management is the key to success'' -- Mullins of LTCF

buy internet stocks ( not )
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,26785,00.html?st.ne.ni.lh

when is the ltcm news gonna hit these guys?
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,26769,00.html?st.ne.ni.lh

CNNFN's market wrap
http://cnnfn.com/markets/9809/24/brief_wrap/

LTC's cash bailout a "reassurance"
http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/9809/24/ltc/


a few more announcements like the LTCM news should make for VERY interesting news. perhaps the LTCB next? :- )

SEP 24 1998 Japan's package to help Asean unveiled

Minister acknowledges that Japan will be giving its own economy a boost when it helps Asian economies
By FELIX SOH

JAPAN yesterday unveiled a package of "immediately effective" measures to help boost the economies of Asean countries. The new package was announced by Japan's Minister of International Trade and Industry Kaoru Yosano in Singapore, the last leg of his three-nation trip to reaffirm Tokyo's commitment to deal with Asia's economic crisis.

"I want to express Japan's determination to faithfully honour commitments made to the region," he said after delivering a lecture, Revitalising Japanese and Asean economies, organised by the Trade Development Board and Japanese Embassy.

The new measures are in addition to Tokyo's current commitment of $43 billion ( S$74.8 billion ) in emergency financial measures. Covering finance, human resources and technology and structural reform, they include:

Underwriting reinsurance for Asian trade insurance institutions;

Providing financing for Japanese companies so that they could inject capital into their local subsidiaries under a new scheme, Japan Financial Corporation for Small Businesses;

Providing training for 10,000 Asian workers and engineers to upgrade their skills; and

Promoting infrastructure development through the use of yen loans.

Mr Yosano commented in his lecture that the economic interdependence between Japan and Asia has been deepening steadily. "Around 40 per cent of Japan's trade is with Asia, which is also the destination for around 30 per cent of our total investment," he said. "Given this close economic relationship, rebuilding the Japanese economy will obviously have a direct bearing on Asian economic recovery by stimulating Japanese trade and investment with Asia.

"Similarly, rebuilding the Asian economy will have a substantial impact on the Japanese economy." Interdependence was also the theme of the opening address by Ambassador-at-Large, Professor Tommy
Koh, who said,

"We need the Japanese goose to grow strong so that it can lead the other geese in the region to fly again."
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/pages/sea1_0924.html

And China comes to Tokyo in November

Your suggestion of a possible major gold sale ovenite ( or over the weekend ) wouldn't surprise me at all. That's about the only trick left in the bag, other than IMF gold. Travelers, or ML, or whoever picked up LTCM's assets and liabilities would love to push gold down, I'm sure, so that they could get out of those losing gold futures contracts.

Boy, does Travelers love derivatives, or what? First Citicorp, now LTCM. A GREAT short, IMHO.

What do you think will keep the gold hedges from falling apart

Todays market gyrations can not have helped very many of the hedge funds. No indeedy. And the WORST is yet to come.

LTCF got a lot of press, because it's one of the first and biggest to go. Bailing it out was like bailing out the forward galley in the Titanic.

You will notice that in order to try and save itself, LTCF sold treasuries. There will soon be a flood of people trying to sell treasuries. Cover short yen cover short gold, cover long treasuries, they better hurry because the early bird has a chance to survive.

Short term treasuries will benefit from the expected rate decrease.

Remember, remember, the depths of September...

Right on Gollum. This is only the tip of the iceberg. The Gold shorts are gonna get their asses singed. The EU CB sales are drawing to a close and hedge funds and Gold shorts owe years of future Gold production.
They may not be able to get out of their positions.
Their romp in the hay is over, finito............

Cnnfn reports:

At the beginning of the year, Long-Term Capital actually returned roughly half of its capital base -- then at $6 billion -- to investors. In a letter sent to investors last September, Meriwether explained its capital base had reached excessive levels.

Just before the going gets tough, a special dividend is paid to Limited Partners, Hmm.

Cage Rattler - Limited Partnerships are a bit like having shares in a corporation, so you only lose what you put up, Your liability is limited. This $3 Billion dividend is suspicious, to say the least.

http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story2333.html

Also providing a boost were rumors that a bail-out plan by the New York
Federal Reserve to rescue Long-Term Capital Management, a Connecticut-based investment firm and hedge fund suffering a liquidity crisis, could have positive implications for gold. ( Story .18900 ) Rumors circulated that the fund could be short a significant amount of gold, and any bail-out plan may involve re-purchasing the metal. Long-Term Capital spokesman Peter Rosenthal told Bridge that the company does not comment on any of its positions.

Traders said that while the rumors definitely helped the gold price today, there was probably little truth to them. "I think we would have seen some business, but no-one seems to have done any business for them," said one market observer.

Estimates ranged from 30 tonnes of gold short positions to runaway
scenarios of much more, which many dismissed as unlikely.

Will all the jews and zionist whiners please take your religious zeal and and go back to israel? I am sick of reading your petty BS about which jewish group is better or worse and who is an anti-semite. Shut up and try just being an American for awhile-or get out of here. And you wonder why people get sick of you every century or so? LET'S ALL TALK GOLD!

It is rewarding to see the crap-hat socialists starting to run for cover with the recent default. Since Klinton has taken the credit for the illusory market miracle for the last 6 years, I wonder who he'll blame the coming crash on - the middle class taxpayers?

I would like to hear any comments and insights about the aftermath of this financial debacle, when the DOW is at 2000 and gold trading in $US has been suspended by Executive Order ( for our own good, of course ) after hitting $5000. What do we do with our gold when he pulls an FDR? Is there enough anger and spine left in the dwindling Warrior Class to win the next Civil War??

Look behind the scenes of the LTCF, the BOS, and various and sundry big name players taking hits because of derivatives, and you don't go far untill you get to names like Rothschild, Warburg, Morgan, Lehman, etc.

The very same minds behind the CB gold sales, gold leasing, and other manuevers that over the years took the price of gold lower and lower. And more and more pruducers, funds and such deeper and deeper in hock to the banks.

Meanwhile the CB's valued their gold reserves at far below fair market prices. It made a neat way to manufacture "free" money when neccessary and keep their true assets hidden. Hidden yet not hidden, right out there in the open. Need some more dollar reserves? Sell some gold on the market instead of those fake trades between banks touted as "sales".

Now they need to pick up some big cash to balance out some spectacular derivaiteves losses.

First step, pump up the gold price. Take over the producers who can't make the call in. Let John Q public foot the bill for bailing out hedge funds whereever possible.

Next step, real gold sales on the open market at prices inflated by the panicked shorts.

End result: CB's end up owning more of the world's resources.

Check and mate.

I will be on my way to the bank in the AM
to unload my bank account in order to get rid of
DOLLARS that are headed down. Then to the
broker to buy more gold shares.

I would appreciate input from any of you out there
as to what your favorite stocks are. I am looking
at: HM/PDG/DROOY/ and possibly ABX. What do you
think? Is ABX worth a play since they are short
so much? How about Rangy? Should I average down?

Any input appreciated.

I liked what AlGreenspan said about good use of the govt money: #1. Pay off the US debt. I noticed no one quoted him on this--it went right over the heads of millions. I say pay it off now--before we spend more overseas and/or "bailing out the world at large." None of this news makes any sense anymore. I remembered today the first time my Dad told me about government subsidies--I think I was only 5 or 6, but I was shocked. Then I was shocked again when I started buying stock and realized that you can't just buy a great company, you have to watch what government is going to support and contract with. What a racket!
Laksmhi

The bailout prevents the positions from being closed out. If LTCM went under, then its positions would be closed out. By bailing them out, it puts off any immediate closure of positions.

The involvement of the NY Fed portends that the bankruptcy of this hedgefund would be a threat to the monetary system.

It's just like a company that buys back its own stock. A deteriorating underlying position will leave the company even weaker and is self-defeating in the end.

I see a lot of posters here are confidently expecting something - CB sale announcements, hedge fund raids, producer forward selling etc. - to knock the Gold price back down again.

Maybe so. The price rise today is most significant technically, though. Gold has broken above its post-1996 downtrend on the $US 1x3 P&F chart. In my "Gold bottom" commentary on The Privateer website last weekend, I pointed to the fact that the long term ( 40 week ) MA had turned up for the first time since August 1996.

Finally, at present exchange rates, Gold is above $A 500. That's always been the place where the local producers start selling forward. If $A Gold kicks higher from here, I would regard that as a STRONG indication that Gold is about to mount an attack on $US 300.

$A and $US Gold chart comparisons are updated at The Privateer website, amongst other things.

Is this sort of anti semitic comment typical on this site. Why do you write this.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.22. The 233 day moving average is 28.55

It is hard for me to understand excitement about gold. We are deep into a global crisis and the stuff still sits below 300. Long US bonds also did well today. What is wrong with my vision here?

It could be similar to that old adage:

When things get ugly, if you owe the bank $50,000 then you're in trouble. If you owe the bank $50,000,000 then the bank's in trouble.

So maybe these banks that are bailing the fund out might have been left holding the bag in the first place through 3rd party risk.

The banking system is an Accident Waiting to Happen.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .254. The 233 day moving average is .249. This is the first time since May 15, 1998, ( 91 trading days ) that the ratio has been above the 233 day moving average.

STK |Percent| 6-Apr | 24-Sep
--------------------------------
MNG |+12.71 | 5.90 | 6.65
PRU |+11.97 | 11.70 |13.10
PDG |+02.40 | 20.80 |21.30
ABX |-05.95 | 32.75 |30.80
GEO |-40.00 | 2.50 | 1.50
SUF |-43.75 | 13.60 | 7.65
RNG |-44.95 | 5.45 | 3.00
ORV |-49.19 | 1.85 | 0.94
ABZ |-55.74 | 18.30 | 8.10
GRE |-72.33 | 10.30 | 2.85

No it's not typical. This site is provided by an individual of jewish origin.
This is the internet, and as we all know there are few limits to what can be said.....

Largest Japanese banks
Bank bad loans as a % of equity
Tokyo----Mitsubishi ------122%
Sumitomo----- 131%
Dai-Ichi kangyo------ 103%
Sanwa------ 90 %
Sakura------ 115%
Fuji------------ 152%
Indus bank of Japan---- 149%
Tokai---- 161%
Asahi----- 133%
Long Term Credit bank-----177%
Mitsubishi Trust--- 168%
Sumitomo Trust---- 302%
Daiwa---- 204%
Mitsui Trust----- 168%
Nippon Credit Bank---- 371%
Toyo Trust and Banking--- 130%
Yasuda Trust---- 327%
Chuo Trust ------- 159%
Nippon Trust------- 206%

These figures are as of Sep 1, 98. Since early September , the Nikkei has declined an additional 10% to 14,200, so the the ratio of bad loans to equity is much higher.
Source: Fitch IBCA

"Yesterdays exuberance over Greenspans comments on interest rate cuts was overshadowed today by concerns over the coming earnings season. The situation was exacerbated by news of a meeting called by Coke which most analysts predict will be used to issue an earnings warning and the revelation that a group of major banks and brokerage firms is getting together to bailout hedge fund firm Long Term Capital, whose failure many believe would spell disaster for the markets. The DJIA ( sm ) fell over 200 points this afternoon before buyers stepped in in the final fifteen minutes of the session, pushing the DJIA ( sm ) back over 8000, to close down 152 at 8001."
----

The market is still optimistic. Old habits die hard. A hint of a rate drop that has no promise of curing the disease that requires the decrease inspired a 250+ pnt rally Wed. Yet we saw only a -150 pnt decline today on the "...revelation that a group of major banks and brokerage firms is getting together to bailout hedge fund firm Long Term Capital, whose failure many believe would spell disaster for the markets." Seems disproportionately big on the plus side relative to the risk differential.

The market is about to be dangled over the ledge by its ankles again. One or two more major hedge fund fiascos and it may fall all the way.

-EJ

and your fears come to fruition. A sad commentary on our times. Gold over US$300 will tell the tale. Then the bet is not a hedge. We watch.

Tom

Dollar lower as giant hedge fund requires bailout

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The dollar fell Thursday on concern that an emergency bailout of a well-respected hedge fund foreshadowed losses for Wall Street firms and slower U.S. growth because of global economic turmoil.
 The Dow Jones industrial average fell 152.42 points to 8,001.99, erasing most of Wednesday's 257 point gain. Also weighing on the dollar were expectations that U.S. interest rates would soon be heading down in the wake of remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Wednesday.
 The dollar's losses came as financial markets in many centers retreated, digesting news that the New York Federal Reserve Bank had organized a group of 15 major U.S. and foreign banks to save Long-Term Capital Management, a Connecticut-based fund that until recently few thought would ever go under.
 The dollar ended at 1.6740 German marks, down from 1.6785 at Wednesday's close and at 134.93 Japanese yen compared with 135.85.
 Long-Term, which boasts two Nobel prize winners and prominent ex-investment bankers among its officers, saw its capital all but wiped out by adverse market movements around the world this summer.
 The consortium of firms put up a $3.75 billion stake because the fund was seen as too big to fail. Closure could have forced it to unload an estimated $90 billion of investments across a spectrum of unsteady markets and may have exacerbated losses at other investment firms.
 But the infusion may only be a temporary cushion if markets continue to move against the fund, dealers said.
 "The thinking is even though they said they don't have to liquidate now, it seems that them may have to eventually anyway," said Jeffrey Yu, a senior foreign exchange dealer at Sanwa Bank Ltd.
 Hedge funds and other investors who make enormous speculative bets with borrowed money can see losses snowball when lenders demand that they top up collateral -- in what is known as a margin call -- forcing them to liquidate positions in declining markets.
 In a possible harbinger of bad news for U.S. financial firms, Switzerland's UBS AG, Europe's biggest bank, said market turmoil since August had caused a substantial drop in third quarter income.
 Hopes that the Fed will shield the U.S. economy from any global downturn were heightened Wednesday after Greenspan said action was needed soon to stabilize the contagion.
 The remarks were the strongest indication yet that the central bank could lower interest rates under its control when policy makers meet Tuesday.
 Lower U.S. interest rates would make dollar-denominated financial instruments less attractive to investors.
 Elsewhere, the British pound jumped to $1.6970 from $1.6849. The dollar fell to 1.3857 Swiss franc from 1.3895 and to Canadian $1.5127 from C$1.5170.

One of these "hedge funds" is going to lose it's nerve and make a run for the hills, with the gold....greed and fear....balls in hand, bullets singing overhead.

BT..."...one cowboy will cut and run..."

then the fireworks begin....who's it gonna be boys....hang together or hang separately?...tick,tick,tick,tick.....

Poker at the big table.

http://lateline.muzi.net/cgi/lateline/news?p=8255

Gollum: I think you might have miss-spoke. As I understand it, from the CNN article posted yesterday at 8:42PM, LTCM was shorting borrowed treasuries in the hope that they would go down in value. Unless this article is wrong, that means to me that LTCM was betting on rising interest rates, not falling ones. I would guess that LTCM was forced into buying the treasuries back at higher prices than they paid for them. Hence the loss.

I must admit I do not know how a 'credit spread' works, but the article says that the scheme would work as long as treasury bond prices were dropping. But -- as we know -- they went up. How about explaining what this credit spread is for naive me? I'll bet some others on Kitco don't fully understand it either. I would guess that a credit spred might work with falling or rising rates, as long as you set it up correctly.

Boy -- when John Meriwether and derivatives Nobel prize winner Scholes get caught on the wrong side of a derivatives trade, that does not bode well for all of those less sophisticated investors such as the banks. Guess it shows you that all the math in the world -- and expensive models too -- dont work all the time. The market rules can 'change on a dime'. And then the model dosn't work. My guess is that the derivatives traders get lulled into a false feeling of security when they make a fortune, and forget to protect themselves from the day the rules change. If they raise the stakes too high, one trade can wipe them out.

KMA

You might want to wait till Monday to buy those gold shares as we will probably have some profit taking tomorrow with the XAU down around 2 points. Hopefully the rally continues Monday or Tuesday.

http://lateline.muzi.net/cgi/lateline/news?p=8264

Today I watched as POG dropped from +4.20 to +3.20 in a few minutes. I thought..here we go again. It then got yanked to +3.80 with two updates of the frame. What a wonderful sight! Strong hands at work. Thanks Bart & co-programmers. The server held up much better today.

nothing for farmers after 2 years of lobbying.

These same funds are shorting all commodities well below cost of production because the "models" tell them. Outcome producers get screwed into the dirt and bankerupt....hedge fund gets bailed out on the spot.

John Merriweather should be strung up in Times square...not bailed out...he is killing the productive potential and starvation is right around the corner!....what madness has overcome our leaders?!!!

All: There are differences now vs 1987. Interest rates were rising because Treasuries were being sold after a 3 year slide in the US dollar. But -- it may not have been just rising interest rates that cause the equities markets to tank on Oct 17. The economy was strong, paradoxically, at the time. But -- alot of people had derivatives 'insurance'. Perhaps a significant part of the event was liquidity problems with derivatives or other financial trades -- not just a simple 'rollover' as immortalized by the movie of the same name with Jane Fonda in it. A sudden derivatives-driven liquidity crisis might be the trigger this time.

Perhaps we will get a little warning if long term interest rates start to rise. Comments, anyone?

Credit spreads are like the Yen-Carry-Trade.

LTCM borrowed Treasuries from other people and then sold them short. With the proceeds they bought bonds that had higher yields ( riskier ) . When people got nervous the price of the high yield bonds went down, whereas the price of Govt Treasuries went higher.

LTCM was now obliged to sell the junk bonds that they had bought which were losing value and to buy back US Treasuries to replace the ones that they had borrowed and sold.

It seems that they didn't do a very good job evaluating risk.

I hope this is clear. You might think of it as borrowing a TBill, selling it for 50 cents, buying a junk bond for 30 cents and holding till maturity. Assume they mature at the same time. At maturity you get $1 for your junk bond, and you buy a matured TBill for $1 that you give back to the person ( bank ) that loaned it to you. You have made 20 cents profit, provided that the junk bond is safe and performing.

Thursday September 24, 12:59 pm Eastern Time

NY gold trade dismisses LTCM shortcovering

By Derek J. Caney

NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - Rumors that beleaguered hedge fund Long Term Capital
Management had large short positions in the gold market were dismissed by market participants
Thursday, most of whom pointed out that the fund was not an active player in the commodities
markets.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank announced Tuesday a $3.75 billion bailout for the fund that
saw its capital shrink by 80 percent since the year began as the global economic picture worsened. The fund was headed by former Salomon
Inc vice chairman John Meriwether, who made his name in bond trading.

But rumors began circulating late Wednesday and overnight that the company had a large short position in the gold market that was to be
unwound as part of the bailout plan.

``It has never been Long Term Capital Management's policy to comment on our positions,'' a LTCM spokesman said.

Gold for December delivery rallied $3.40 to $296.00 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading as
high as $297 earlier in the session. But the market has yet to steer far from the $289.60-$297 trading range of the past two weeks.

``The gold market saw a spurt of short-covering a half-hour before closing Wednesday,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a gold trader for
Hudson River Futures on the floor of the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. ``The assumption was that it had
something to do with Long Term Capital. But I have my doubts.''

Further rumors began circulating that the fund had large off-exchange positions in the over-the-counter options markets outside of the U.S.

``They have no positions in the gold market,'' said Martin Armstrong, president of Princeton Economics International, who runs his own
fund. ``Ninety-eight percent of what they do is in interest rates. They have little involvement in commodities, if any.''

Other gold traders agree. ``Rumors like this tend to serve the gold bulls quite well,'' one commission house trader said. ``They get people
talking about how LTCM has to cover millions of ounces of gold, hoping they can run some stop loss orders above the market. But we don't
cross paths with these guys at all.''

But as another metals analyst noted, sometimes a rumor of such selling is all the market needs to rally. ``If there's rumors of fund
short-covering, it could definitely lead other funds to do the same,'' he said.

``I don't see any direct impact on the gold market from ( LTCM ) ,'' Hudson River's Perez-Santalla said. ``It does, however, demonstrate
instability in the market, which tends to be bullish for gold.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/3i.html

Hmm, but what about next year?

http://lateline.muzi.net/cgi/lateline/news?p=8191

They would irreversibly soak up 1,000 tonnes of Gold and help the POG. Small buyers don't readily sell their coins back into the Gold market. They may pawn them or sell them to each other but, for the purposes of market supply & demand, that Gold is gone! {unless the gov't tried rounding it up voluntarily or otherwise}

If they bought just one 48th of an ounce per week for one year {as in the Christmas Savings plans} they would have their ounce. If they enrolled each of their kids in such a plan there may be a potential market for SEVERAL THOUSAND TONNES OF GOLD! And they could take delivery right away!

Unlike "lay-a-way" plans Blanchard and others have where they keep the Gold and trust the depository, small investors could take delivery of their weekly purchases every week! INSTANT GRATIFICATION when the plain envelope arrives with several 10 grain coins therein {one for each familiy member}. And for only 32 cents postage! Okay - they could be insured at extra cost but the point is that a little bit of Gold each week could be painless to buy and, when millions are doing it, put a floor under the POG - or maybe even an elevator - headed up!

JP:

1 ) Japanese Banks: Perhaps we need a Diogenes to investigate the Japanese banks, running through the streets of Tokyo, yelling 'Is there a solvent bank?'. Sign of the times.

Perhaps Diogenes' time was not so different from our current one.

2 ) Derivatives trade losses: I get a feeling of foreboding -- and that is the ground state around here ( Kitco ) . The derivatives clock is ticking. Exponential derivatives growth by definition cannot go on forever in real life -- just in theoretician's minds.

Anyone know what we watch? Sadly, I think there is no early warning indicator, except the frequency of firms declaring bankruptcy due to bad derivatives trades. Good thing we heard about the current wipeout of LTCM. Think the liquidity crisis about 10 days ago was due to the news of LTCM only? The next time we may not just have a twitch.

PBS-NBR just had a hedge fund org. CEO interviewed.
What a joke, the questions were good but this talking head sidestepped the the issues and was trying to downplay the whole affair, "An Isolated Case".
Bullcrap.........

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bfb.html

Marshall's excerpt was not typical at all!!!

The particpants in the chat only differ, with rancor, only over the direction gold is going.

Hut hit the nail, probably will be some share pullbacks over the next few days. The xau/spot gold ratio chart looks like either gold must gain a few more bucks soon or shares drop back a bit.
What I would suggest doing is what I am doing: buy some physical, get some cash in a very strong bank and buy gold stocks, En and Fn, bmg/ggo and nem on possible takeovers. Best to put in stop-loss orders on everything 'cause if a crash hits you're toast even in gold shares if there is a liquidity problem.

Gianni Dioro - That helps. Sounds like the problem was not with the treauries, but rather with the high risk 'junk bonds'. Stocks and options I understand fairly well -- I am slowly tackling the mysteries of the financial derivatives traders. I think that is real important for us gold bugs, given that derivatives are being used to manipulate the price of gold. A crash course in derivatives should be part of any Gold bug Tsunami surfers education.

I don't think CB's will be anywhere near as open about their failed trades as LTCM.

Interesting that the rumor spread that LTCM had gold derivatives trades ( now denied ) . As our gold bull gathers strength, some rumor like this is bound to have electrifying effects on the gold markets fairly soon.

Your rebuttal was wonderfully erudite, for a remf. It also re-inforces my observation. Thank you so much.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/2p.html

moa:
Bailouts are for the rich - those in the inner circle. We have NO say over taxpayer money. It's moved before we know it. Really disgusting. Even Congress can't believe the measures that our central bankers are taking, including IMF. Moreover, Congress has to beg for an interest rate decrease. I've always said that we don't need the Fed ( in agreement with Jimmy Rogers ) .
Highhopes

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/xr.html

With today's comments on the probable attack by the FED res,UBS & BOE roumour machine of gold sales to accomodate demand etc ( without parting with any ) ~ Does anyone have an indication as to how much gold is held by th Arabian Gulf states ?? they love gold.

go gold
cpo

Selling Dollars for Roubles can be dangerous.

Just like 1929, everyone thought the Fed wouldn't allow a collapse. That was the argument for the Fed in the first place, to stop future banking crises.

In 1998 people said that the IMF wouldn't allow a country to renege on its debt. Russia was too big to fail, they said.

About a year ago I was talking to a Businessman I know. We were talking about the erratic market, and I told him that I had shorted some stocks, he seemed interested. I asked what he was invested in, and he told me about his lone investment. It was a hedge fund dealing in treasuries. No risk he told me, just easy money ( something like a guaranteed 15% per annum ) .

I asked incredulously, "And it's perfectly hedged?"

"I think so. That's what they say", he answered. He didn't seem 100% confident.

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.

Another little accounting practice used by businesses in Japan is to never depreciate an asset.

If a company purchases a mainframe for 10 million five years ago it is still shown as worth 10 million today. This makes for a misleading debt ratio to the uninformed.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_09/24/163200ma.htm

"News that the Fed bailed out a big, flashy hedge fund wrinkled even the buttoned suits on Wall Street. Fifteen financial institutions, at the behest of the Fed, reportedly agreed to give Long-Term Capital Management, headed by self-noted bond trader John Meriwether, $3.5 billion. In return, the banks will be given equity stakes and management control.

Analysts said Fed officials bailed out the hedge fund, whose strategy was evidently neither hedged nor long-term, to prevent a systemic chain-reaction of failures in the financial system. Reports said the fund had about $400 billion in offsheet obligations and $1 trillion in trading obligations.

Despite an announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin that a Long-Term Capital collapse posed no wider risk, banking stocks lost big as rumors swept financial markets of unpayable counterparty obligations. "

"It will reinforce what's happened recently in the debt markets, ( the idea ) that there's been a sharp underperformance in high-risk assets," said Anthony Crescenzi, a bond analyst with Miller Tabak Hirsch.
"But the resolution of the issue may begin to alleviate fears about systemic riskToday we should all be looking at our financial system and saying these risks are very low, very few, and that we have a financial system that is sound," Crescenzi added.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said the threatened collapse of LTC was not a systemic danger to the U.S. economy, despite heightened risks to domestic markets from the global economic tumult.
"But I don't know of anything in that area that rises to the level of a systemic risk to our economy at this time."
--------------------------------------------------------------

"The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions."
- Leonardo da Vinci

You are right. The XAU/Spot Ratio was 30% below the 233 day moving average on August 31st. Now it is 2.5% over. During the same time gold has only moved half as much in percentage terms and has been unable to cross its 233 although it is only -0.55% tonight. Gold has got to hurry up or stock must slow down before the whole move gets more out of whack.

Wall Street dominoes fall

September 24, 1998: 5:13 p.m. ET

NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - A large hedge-fund debacle that threatened investors' confidence in major U.S. financial companies triggered a heavy sell-off on Wall Street Thursday, a day after hopes for an interest-rate cut inspired a powerful market rally.
The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 152.42 points, or 1.9 percent, to 8,001.99. On the New York Stock Exchange, declines led advances 2,023 to 1,068 as 806 million shares changed hands.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 39.93, or 2.3 percent, to 1,720.34. The S&P 500 index slid 23.37, or 2.2 percent, to 1,042.72.
Weakness among major financial stocks gave a sour tone to the rest of the market as news surfaced about a billion-dollar bailout deal for a troubled hedge fund. Fear that some of Wall Street's most venerable institutions could suffer blows of their own, as a result of the bailout, or their own risky investments in emerging markets, caused a massive exit from the sector.
The bond market moved higher as attention turned to the prospect of lower interest rates and the stock market tanked, despite U.S. economic data that showed slightly more robust growth than the market had expected. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 4/32 of a point in price, for a yield of 5.16 percent.
The dollar eased against the Japanese yen and the German mark as investors contemplated the effect on U.S. commercial banks from the hedge-fund rescue package.
In stocks, a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan caused a rally by suggesting the time is ripe to lower rates, investors took the profits from Wednesday's rally and awaited the start of the third-quarter earnings reporting season.
"We see the Fed easing as a flu shot that will help prevent recession in 1999, but fixing the global problems that underlie the markets' malaise will require major surgery," said William Hummer, market strategist at Wayne Hummer. "So basically, I think the market sees through this as a temporary boost, but there are fundamental problems that aren't yet resolved."
Among the newsmakers in the market, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter ( MWD ) became the latest Wall Street brokerage to announce third-quarter earnings, beating market forecasts of $1.03 a share by earning $1.05 a share in the last three months. Nevertheless, fickle investors punished the stock, driving it down 5-11/16, or almost 10 percent, to 51-9/16.
Other financial services stocks also attracted crowds of sellers, with Merrill Lynch ( MER ) losing 4-1/4 to 53-3/4, Lehman Brothers ( LEH ) falling 4-3/16 to 33-11/16, Citicorp ( CCI ) shedding 5-5/8 to 99-7/8 and Chase Manhattan ( CMB ) dropping 3-3/4 to 46-3/8. Among the Dow components, American Express ( AXP ) fell 4-3/16 to 79-1/4, J.P. Morgan ( JPM ) tumbled 6-1/8 to 87 and Travelers ( TRV ) lost 3-5/16 to 39-5/8.
Market experts attributed the pounding to a late Wednesday decision by several Wall Street powerhouses to come up with billions in cash in an effort to rescue failing hedge-fund Long Term Capital from going belly-up. Merrill Lynch, J.P Morgan and Travelers were among the largest firms involved in the rescue deal, brokered with the help of the Federal Reserve.
Calling this an "extreme negative story," Barry Hyman, senior equity analyst at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum, said it is quite possible other large hedge funds could fail, but unlikely they would get the same life-saving treatment as Long Term Capital. ( 339K WAV ) or ( 339K AIFF )
Four out of the five most active stocks on the Big Board were big financials, as were four out of the five biggest net losers.
Also in the news, shares of Dow component Coca-Cola ( KO ) shed 1-7/16 to 56-9/16 after the company hastily arranged a meeting with analysts for Friday, prompting some market watchers to speculate that the soft-drink giant is about to issue a profit warning.
Elsewhere in the market, oil-services stocks took a beating after Baker Hughes ( BHI ) warned investors its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings could come in as much as 50 percent below market expectations. The stock fell 2-5/16 to 21-7/16. Shares of rival Schlumberger ( SLB ) lost 2-1/2 to 50-3/8.
Finally, among the day's hottest issues, shares of Internet auctioneer eBay ( EBAY ) soared on their first day of public trading, rising more than 163 percent, or 29-3/8 to 47-3/8 after pricing at 18 in an initial public offering underwritten by Goldman Sachs.

Donald: If you are a 'star' derivatives trader with Scholes on the board, you might attract quite a number of banks as clients. Any idea who LTCM's clients were?

I'll bet the reason LTCM is getting bailed out so quickly is that the derivatives trading industry does not want to lose their clients -- which might even include a few CB's. I think the risk of a world-wide financial crisis is rising.

I found a moment to respond to your earlier post--
"chas ( Aragorn III your 17:18 9/23 ) ID#147201:
Very interesting considerations. Since we now know we can produce 10
grain gold coins and 10/+ grain silver coins, would you please dial this
in to your comments ? I have to agree with a lot of what you said, but
are you basing that on existing coins or the much smaller ones? Thanx,
Charlie"
--
The statement holds. I had considered gold coins of all sizes, existing or yet to be born ( please don't let my comments slow down your project! ) . With gold playing its proper role as the money of the people, its value as a monetary commodity would rise such that even your tiny 10 grain coins ( with a present value less than ten dollars ) would rise in dollar value and PURCHASING POWER such that you would not be happy with anything less than GOLD as your change in a transaction.

Yet, full speed ahead with your project! As squirrel is quick to point out, there are many people that may be inclined ( or only able! ) to buy gold in tiny increments such as this. And in terms of representing your wealth in the form of a security blanket, gold is gold, no matter what size the pieces.

I appreciate that you took the time to read the post and offer comments. I'm afraid my longer products tend to encourage paging ahead.

got tiny gold?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/x5.html

A Long-Term Capital spokesman stressed the injection of capital was ``new equity, not a loan.''

Whats with this? Equity? Not a loan? Does this mean they are just giving
it to them card blanc? How can we get in on this action?

Looks like BUTT saving time as begun folks!

Best Regards, O.L.

Of course, not speaking for my employer.

Despite an announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin that a Long-Term Capital collapse posed no wider risk, banking stocks lost big as rumors swept financial markets of unpayable counterparty obligations. "

Minimum entry for LTCM investors is/was $10 million. I was a couple of bucks shy but I figured you know them all after meeting them at the shareholder meetings.

I saw the distressing news about Harvard's endowment.
I surely hope that this litle finacial bobble by "The Best and Brightest" doesn't force the university to reduce funding to the literary deconstructionists, the Queer Studies, and other pillars of our civilisation.

Chris Turner, managing director at the advisory firm I.D.E.A., acknowledged ``it is worrisome if partners at LTCM, with their background, can understate global emerging market risks and their impact on spreads.''
-----------------------------------------------------------

I know that most men, including those at ease with problems
of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest
and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to
admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in
explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to
others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into
the fabric of their lives. -- Leo Tolstoy

They are a week or so behind normal. It's been unusually warm up here.
By this time we should have had several snows on the high tops {above 12,000 ft} but we have had barely a frosting over 14,000 ft.

The Telegraph Office will be open Saturday 'till noon - thereafter I shall wing it depending on tourist traffic and sales volume.
Let me know when and I can be in the area.

I expect low places like the town of Aspen to be a week later than us.

http://www.bestbuysonthenet.com/recentnews/investmentnews/9-21-98.htm#THE RUSH FOR GOLD AND SILVER

We can take up a Kitco collection for Harvard when gold hits that $30,000 per ounce number I keep seeing posted here. Are you in?

I think you're right. It makes a little more sense that way. There are several conflicting new items about with regard to LTCM.

Goldman Sachs analyst Marc Cohen says:

``A year from now, we probably will be looking at a 65 to 75 ( cent ) stock price as people gain confidence in the company's competence. It's not at all bad for Coke in the long-term."

How optimistic of him!!! Does he know something we do not? Does he manage a hedge fund? Does Coke manage a hedge fund?

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980924/bs/cocacola_1.html

about that hypocrite Ted Arnold from ML. I agree with Steve about
this guy. Ted Arnold makes me sick... Here's Kaplan's site:
http://www.investor1.com/topframe_kaplan.html

Those who furnished the "bailout" funds to LTC
took shares of stock in the company. As far as
I can determine, the FED was only the consultant
for the deal, and did not furnish funds for the
bailout. If I am wrong, somebody please correct
me.

My understanding was that the benefactors who
bought out a portion of LTC now own a large portion
of the firm. They did this to save their own skins
since they too are holders of derivatives. In doing
this, they are now more exposed than ever before.

Not a happy situation to be in, but at least it puts
off the inevitable.

I think a lot of articles that have come out since
the announced "bail out" are nothing more than spin
control. These later articles just dont get through
my built in BS sifter. ESPECIALLY any quote from
Robert Rubin.

Donald: If I had 10 million, I would be retired, and I certainly would not put it all in derivatives for some genius to lose for me.

I'm flattered that you thought I might know all of these wealthy clients, but sadly my bank account does not come close. I'd be happy with a small fraction of one million. I have a friend who is in equities, and is worth a couple million. When the markets tanked recently, he lost more in one day than I and spouse make in a year. He was in shock. He is not so sure I'm nuts anymore.

I dont know why I am bothering to tell you this but I spent 23 months in Viet Nam out in the Grass with 1/7 Cavalry Regiment 1st Cavalry Division as a Combat Photographer, this is not a REMF, LAter in my career I did have staff jobs but also
went to other conflicts as required. SO I repeat.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bds.html

Yesterday I was asked by a few posters to explain in detail how straddle strategy works. It is one of neutral ( or better to say - slightly bullish ) - strategies among many others. As all of them ( expect wild buying of out-of-the-money calls or puts and waiting for a miracle ) this strategy reduce risk but also make possible gains lower. I am sure, that a lot of Kitcoites know how straddle strategy works, so this text can be not interesting to everybody. It is bit longer, then an average post, so I have decided to post it as a file. Text includes description of this known strategy, numeric example and some comments to it, based on my own experience. For those who interested - click on an icon below. Happy trading, everybody

....upon the acquisition of the assets held by Consolidated Gold NL, at the Davyhurst gold project in the Eastern Goldfields in Western Australia......unusual.

I'd first consider subscribing to a collection for the Kitco server.
I will repeat something that I have noticed when Kitco is slow.
The server at times doesn't seem to disconnect, or whatever it is called.
I have seen the "stop" button on my netscape browser stay on for varying periods. When Kitco zooms, the light goes out so fast that one cannot discern it at the end of transmission. At other times, it will stay on for more than a minute, or not go off at all.
Y'all please hit the stop button if you see that it remains lit. I don't think the slows have all that much to do with the volume of traffic.

Donald, I surely thank you for all of your posting on news items, and the XAU/POG ratio. We are into the watchit zone now.
'

not a bad move at all....AND we haven't reached Cctober/November when the ECB will begin to restrict CB gold sales and leasing!!

Here's a toast at todays great gains ...to all goldbugs her at KITCO,
Salute...TO MY enemies ENEMIES!!!!!!


XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-09-24
ABX-Barrick Gold-------CLOSED AT $20.1875 1.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.45
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $08.2500 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.24
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.8125 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.37
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $06.5625 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
FCX-Freeport Mc-------CLOSED AT $13.1250 0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.33
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $16.6250 2.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.21
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.8750 0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.10
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $12.0000 0.8125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.56
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $23.3750 2.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.40
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $14.0625 0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.61

XAU CLOSED AT 74.69 5.4

It seems obvious to me, LTCM owed these banks several Billion and as being a bad 3rd party and not being able to live up to its obligations, there was a debt for equity swap.

The banks who had allowed this fund to leverage itself must be feeling pain, and are not coming clean with the dangerous positions of its major players.

Also, Colin Ferguson was talking about when the rumour is denied, it has likely just been confirmed. Rubin's comment that LTCM posed no systemic risk made me think of this denial/confirmation aspect.

Giving money to buy more worthless paper just makes no sense to me me! Oh boy, we will bail you out for some of your stock. As if it will be worth something in the future. I now see major cracks ( butt ) as these guys
start to bend over to pick up the mess of paper on the floor.

Your comments are greatly appreciated!

uh huh, oh yea, GO GOLD! Spank these bad boys!
O.L.

Of course, not speaking for my employer.

The bailout of LTC today was simply to PREVENT the domino effect from occurring ( when one block falls, alll others will fall too )

THIS IS A SHORT TERM SOLUTION!!!!

More horror stories are on the way.

Thank you very much for your input. I will
do my homework and see where it leads me.

Perhaps I am over confidant, but I have this
gut feeling that we are going to see the big
move very soon. One of my little Canadian
stocks made a 47 % move today. Needless to
say, I feel like I should have bought more
sooner, rather than later.

In the past, I have seen stocks like the price
of AU higher. But your point is well taken
that it must be soon.

Thanks

The bailout of LTC today was simply to PREVENT the domino effect from occurring ( when one block falls, alll others will fall too )

THIS IS A SHORT TERM SOLUTION!!!!

More horror stories are on the way.

THE FIX IS IN....HEDGE FUND BAIL OUT ...GLOBAL TURMOIL ... DECREASING INTERESTS RATES ... FALLING DOW ... FROM HONG KONG ...TO BRITIAN GOLD SHOULD RISE TO 298.....THEN US TRADE OVER THE TOP. WHAT A WEEK! AND THIS IS JUST THE START....GOGOLD

You don't owe the civilian's nothin'. Love to see some of your shots ( photos ) some day. Got some of me own. Troi D'hoi! ( Right Earl? )

I'm really tried of Armstrong's disinformation on Gold and Silver.

He says about LTCM as citing that they had no positions in gold because: ``Ninety-eight percent of what they do is in interest rates. They have little involvement in commodities, if any.''

How disingenuous. He knows as well as I that less than two percent of all derivatives are in equity and commodity contracts. He also knows as well as I that 30-50% of all commodity contracts involve gold on one side of or the other. And he knows that the gold market is so tight that the 1%-2% is so much more significant.

Notional amounts outstanding of OTC Commodity contracts was 318 billion dollars at end March 1995. Of which Gold was 147 billion, or 46%.

Gross market values were for all OTC Commodities 28 billion, of which Gold was 10 billion of those contracts at end March 1995.

How much do you care to guess those contract values and price risks have grown in the gold bear? I bet a lot. For those curious 35% of those contracts were Futures; 65% Options.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bc8.html

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

I find this site better than CBS. CBS is about 10 or 15 minutes behind.
Great day for gold. I got my mom in Greenstone and Golden Star this morning. I got home from work tonight to call her and tell her she made money already. She's got DROOY too.

Japan Nikkei 225 13763.38 -442.40 -3.11%
Dec Gold 297.00 +0.60

By an Equity infusion, the banks avoid LTCM defaulting, and in turn the banks keep their P&L statements in the black.

Like what Tantalus Rex just posted, this doesn't even begin to take into account what kind of snowball effects it could have if these derivative ( futures ) positions were immediately closed.

Where have you been? The market's been like the World Trade Center elevators and no one to cheer for us.

The LTC bailout is flatout socialism--or very expensive welfare. Check out Fleckenstein's comments today.
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

HEY DR. GOLD, HAVE YOU SEEN GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD? HOW 'BOUT THOSE PACKERS BEATING UP POOR HELPLESS BEN-GALS.

There must have been a little bad news today?

Japan Nikkei 225 8:45PM 13761.54 -444.24

-c

Here is my post to a Hecla site at AOL. If every one puts their viewer on short text Kitco will speed up by a factor of 10. Try it everyone, Please!!!!

Date: Thu, Sep 24, 1998 20:21 EDT
From: Karlatapex



kezman, About 11 years ago before the 1987 minor correction, a broker I knew said to me about a stock that I told him to buy. He bought it at 1 $ a share, and got some of his clients in it too. The stock was pentech. ( pntk ) . It proceeded to go up substantally and he sold when it got to 6 or 7. It then continued to go to 10. As I was in the brokerage one day later on ( They had a ticker and chairs to watch the market, it was nice ) he
said to me that he wished that he had not sold so soon.
I looked at him and said, " Whenever you have a very profitable stock, never look ahead as to what you might miss on the upside, but rather behind you as to what you have already made". This is precisely the mentality that hurts us. Greed, at the top, and fear at the BOTTOM ( NOW ) . i.e. PM stocks and PM in general. If it felt right, then all would catch the lows. And vice versa! Remember, right now which emotion is strongest, Fear or Greed?
If you said fear then ask yourself the next question, at which point does that emotion come into play? At the Highs, or at the Lows? Be your own person, but recognize when you're just joining the crowd!!!! Karl,
Buy gold! Go Hecla!!!!

Here is my post to a Hecla site at AOL. If every one puts their viewer on short text Kitco will speed up by a factor of 10. Try it everyone, Please!!!!

Date: Thu, Sep 24, 1998 20:21 EDT
From: Karlatapex



kezman, About 11 years ago before the 1987 minor correction, a broker I knew said to me about a stock that I told him to buy. He bought it at 1 $ a share, and got some of his clients in it too. The stock was pentech. ( pntk ) . It proceeded to go up substantally and he sold when it got to 6 or 7. It then continued to go to 10. As I was in the brokerage one day later on ( They had a ticker and chairs to watch the market, it was nice ) he
said to me that he wished that he had not sold so soon.
I looked at him and said, " Whenever you have a very profitable stock, never look ahead as to what you might miss on the upside, but rather behind you as to what you have already made". This is precisely the mentality that hurts us. Greed, at the top, and fear at the BOTTOM ( NOW ) . i.e. PM stocks and PM in general. If it felt right, then all would catch the lows. And vice versa! Remember, right now which emotion is strongest, Fear or Greed?
If you said fear then ask yourself the next question, at which point does that emotion come into play? At the Highs, or at the Lows? Be your own person, but recognize when you're just joining the crowd!!!! Karl,
Buy gold! Go Hecla!!!!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/od/story.html?s=v/nm/19980921/od/sex_3.html

"The gossip around is that next week you will hear about a great new way to
earn unlimited frequent flyer miles for investing in a Mutual Fund. Clicking
around the SEC filing reports shows us there's going to be many miles to be
earned, especially if you are a little unsettled from the upheaval in the
stock market these days. Move some money to a Mutual Fund and earn miles in
the process."

Just a note: We stopped today right in the middle of the range 72-78 ( top ) for his preferred wave count.Next stop 110, or 35.All aboard !Tune in Saturday for a program. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html

About Eurodollars, Hoskins wrote this in, War Cycles - Peace Cycles:

"There is one more item that our media is very careful not to mention - the real purpose of the Soviet banks in the West....It is supposed that these Soviet banks have lent billions upon tens of billions of dollars into existence - much of it lent to very shaky borrowers.

"From time to time the demise of a single bank in the US threatens the entire dollar banking structure of the world. If a single bank can do this, just imagine what would happen if all of the Soviet banks in Britain, France, and the Far East call their loans at the same time. In an instant the borrowers would grab the floating supply of dollars to honor the call for dollars. The floating supply of dollars could disappear in a flash. Money could cease to circulate. Business, transportation, and communication would grind to a halt." ( This was written in 1985 )


Today bloomberg reports:
"Lehman Blocks Accounts of Russia's Unexim, Inkombank"

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. won a court order blocking the U.K. bank accounts of Inkombank and Unexim Bank, two of Russia's biggest banks, claiming they defaulted on obligations of more than $110 million. Lehman claimed in documents filed in the High Court in London that Inkombank defaulted on an $87 million payment due on Sept. 11 and Unexim Bank defaulted on a $25.9 million payment due the same day. Inkombank is Russia's second- largest private bank by assets; Unexim Bank is fourth-largest.
===============
I don't really understand Eurodollars, or how important this Lehman seizure/foreclosure is, and if they are related. Thought I'd post it anyhow.

LUZHKOV BLAMES IMF, WESTERN BANKS FOR
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Moscow Mayor and likely presidential candidate Yurii Luzhkov
has blamed the "bad advice" of the IMF for Russia's current
economic crisis. He said "following the IMF's recommendations,
[Russia] suppressed [its] own manufacturers and began to turn
into a raw material appendage of the civilized world." He added
that past Russian governments tried to carry out monetarist
principles in Russia and this led to "an absence of a customs
policy," robbing of companies, and unrestrained lending to
commercial banks, according to Interfax on 23 September.
"Finansovye izvestiya" on 22 September alleged that Western
banks, knowing that Russia was heading for a devaluation and
debt crisis, have carefully bided their time until Russia was
desperate for new economic assistance. Now, these banks will
make such aid conditional on adopting measures like those
recommended by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, such as the
adoption of a new tax code and restoration of the ruble's
convertibility. JAC


RUBLE BOUNCES BACK, AFTER BANKS EXCLUDED
FROM TRADING
The ruble stabilized at 15.73 rubles to $1 during the first half of
trading on 24 September. The previous day, the ruble had
unexpectedly strengthened, rising to 15.83 rubles per dollar from
16.21 rubles. On 21 September, the Central Bank prepared a list
of Russian commercial banks that were banned from foreign
exchange trading in part to prevent them from using their new
liquidity to speculate against the ruble. Lehman Brothers obtained
a court order seizing the UK bank accounts of one of those banks,
Inkombank, according to Bloomberg. Inkombank failed to buy
rubles from Lehman Brothers on 15 September, as it had agreed
under a so-called forward currency contract. JAC


RMS SALES TO MAKE ENDS MEET
Writing in "Segodnya" on 23 September, military analyst Pavel
Felgengauer suggested that Russia has at least one alternative if
Western aid is not forthcoming. He said that "if the West refuses to
offer economic assistance to Russia, Moscow and its new
premier...may renew deliveries of sophisticated weapons to Iran,
Libya, and Iraq." He continued, "Of course, neither Iraq nor other
anti-Western regimes of the Third World have the money to feed
millions of hungry Russians, but it doesn't matter. Russia may
deliver weapons for delayed payment or barter. What counts is
giving Iraq and Iran missiles and other hardware that will be able
to damage British and American navies in the Persian Gulf." JAC

http://www.rferl.org/newsline/1-rus.html

I recall poster kiwi alerted UBS derivative troubles a few moons back .....the irony is Black & Scholes only got their "nobels" last year...just before the miracle "equation" undoes the whole world financial system...hahahahahahahahaha....
a little knowledge is a lot dangerous and an equation is only as good as it's weakest assumption......
It goes like this...."Assuming we have a risk free investment yielding a small interest...."

this is where it all goes wrong right at the first usurous assumption...there is no risk free small interest investment...risk free is gold...and it pays NO interest...not positive not negative..NOTHING.

On with the news....
Thursday September 24, 8:27 pm Eastern Time

UBSstill profitable, risk controls intact

By Alice Ratcliffe

ZURICH, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - UBS AG remains profitable and risk controls are working, despite
news of losses and write-downs resulting from emerging market exposure, securities market
volatility, and ties to a U.S. hedge fund.

UBS, Europe's largest bank, said Thursday at a hastily called briefing that it expected an after-tax
loss in the third quarter of between 500 million and 1.0 billion Swiss francs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bgu.html

Thursday September 24, 8:13 pm Eastern Time

Travelers top executive praises bailout

NEW YORK, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - Establishing a $3.5 billion fund to bail out hedge fund Long
Term Capital Management L.P. was the ``intelligent thing to do,'' Travelers Group Inc.'s top
executive told CNBC on Thursday.

Sanford Weill, Travelers chairman and chief executive, said the banks involved "all agreed that
this was an intelligent thing to do so as to create some stability in the market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bgn.html

Thursday September 24, 8:24 pm Eastern Time

ANALYSIS-Greenspan takes lead to save world
economy

By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - There is nothing like a few choice words from Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to reassure the world that Washington is serious about taking
the lead role in saving the global economy from collapse.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bgt.html

World Bank guards AAA rating as loan demand soars

By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON, Sept 24 ( Reuters ) - The World Bank said on Thursday it had taken action to
guard its perfect credit rating after record lending to Asia's battered economies and it promised a
cautious policy as demand for money soars.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bf7.html

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980924/bs/rates_3.html

As I stated/asked before, If the government/taxpayer is going to be the bank of 'last-resort', why bother with with the 'in-between; the banks!?

Gold stock indices performed marvelously today with some important moving averages taken out. Gold and silver are at/very near breakout levels. It won't require too much more upward movement to realize fruition in that regard, but those levels should also provide some heavy resistance. Should they NOT, then expect some serious moves being underway!

6pak -- RE: RMS sales; Yup, just as many have said is going on. Russia would/will use threats of destabilization to gain American 'welfare' dollars.

September 24, 1998

IMF admits world economy in mess, sees no recession

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A senior official from the International Monetary Fund on Thursday played down the risk of a global recession, but admitted that the world economy, racked by problems in Asia, Russia and Latin America, was in a mess.

"Serious as the situation may be, we believe that we are not going to a world recession, that next year could show a beginning of picking up again," the official, speaking on condition he was not identified, told a breakfast briefing.

"I see with great pleasure that, in trying to map their way out of this mess, the G7 believe the risks have shifted from a pickup of inflation to an excessive slowdown in demand," he said. "This is the diagnosis, and from the diagnosis you must consider if monetary conditions should be somewhat adapted."

"This institution, after 53 years of existence, does not know what controlled inflation is, if not one of the avenues to hyperinflation," he said.

"Controlled inflation reminds me of what ... people call being half pregnant. The IMF does not like countries to be half pregnant with inflation, and I am sure the leaders of Russia will be quite attentive to send the proper signal."
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/IMF-ECONOMY.html

S&P down -7.30
DJIA index down 60 points
Japan Nikkei 225 down -400 or -2.80%

GOLD UP, Yessss

Tom

The near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management is a stark reminder of Wall Street's talent for self-delusion. Yet again bankers have convinced themselves that it is possible to enjoy exceptional returns with little risk. LTCM's arbitrage trading strategy seemed just such a miracle money-spinner - particularly since the underlying assets, such as sovereign bonds, were high quality. Equally, its management, festooned with Nobel laureates, was seen as too smart to get into trouble. As a result, the world's top banks lent it huge sums, allowing LTCM to take $80bn worth of positions on capital of $4.8bn.

But even Nobel laureates find it hard to separate risk and return. In essence, LTCM was functioning as a huge reinsurance company for Wall Street, taking on risk the big banks wanted to lay off. That these same banks were simultaneously lending it the money to do so defies logic. And now the emerging markets hurricane has blown LTCM over, they were left with little choice but to bail it out. Having bought valuable time, some of LTCM's trades should even end up making a profit - on the back of which the fund wants to raise fresh capital. That really is chutzpah

solution....in other words give me your freedom and I will cover you from cradel to grave.....the crisis and the solution are on my web page.....Wash. Post...WALL ST. STRUGGLES TO SAVE BIG FUND and GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS USHERING IN THE THIRD WAY...IMO http://www.patriottrading.com/headline_links.html

6pak -- Too bad the IMF turkey doesn't seem to know anything about usury-based systems. But, of course, if he did, he wouldn't be working for the IMF, or any other lend-at-usury establishment/system. As has been said MANY times here before, there is only ONE way for them all to end. And that is not 'pleasantly'! They can play 'games' for awhile, but all that they do to prop up the CONfidence game is ALL for nought. Don't ANYONE here believe otherwise! Non-payment of debt can only go JUST so far. Derivative players have REAL problems. The wind is blowing and the house of cards is shuddering. When it happens, the metals are going to absolutely explode and there will be NO getting aboard, as it will happen virtually overnight! We've seen the beginnings of what can happen overseas. But when it happens here, it will be simply overwhelming to ALL, everywhere! Those who have the metals in physical possession will be the ONLY finacial winners in this scenario. ( But don't neglect having a 'foxhole' dug and equipped with the other essentials! )

I don't trust a numbers guy that ain't cool on a HP21 or a HP22....or at the very least, a HP 37E. 12C guys can not be trusted....as a general rule. And our K&E fellows are all gods....standing amongst arithmetic morons who couldn't pull off long division to save their seal.

Father-in-law, a P.due boiler-maker, owns Wang serial # 001. Yup, I remember when a calculator costs the same as a Pontiac. Those were the days.

Oil mandated by the Boys to be at least 20 before Santamas. Hey, The Green Giant finally figured it out..duh..oil pays loans ( among other things ) .

Sorry 'bout late response...went down to the ranch ( 2-hour drive ) .....17 out of 21 ponds bone dry....I am 49, I have never seen ONE of them dry. Something's in the air, and it ain't good.

G&P to YA!!!!

There's a front-page article on the Wall Street Journal that should shake every investor's confidence level to the core. Without going into details, suffice it to say that the derivatives market may be unwinding in a more ominous fashion than even WE have warned about.

Bottomline, it raises a whole new perspective on Federal Reserve pressures. To see the former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board caught up in a hedge fund that has $100 billion in exposure and only $2.3 billion in capital is mind-boggling. And no, we would no longer be surprised to see the Fed ease a notch next Tuesday. We will be surprised to see it have much lasting buoyancy on Wall Street.

On the technical front, there's little or no change in our bear market outlook. The news today on that Long Term Capital hedge fund is frightening. Contrarian or not, undervalued or not, Japan cannot withstand a widespread unwinding of derivatives.

"Now we have a new moral hazard in this country whereby certain
hedge funds are deemed too big to fail. First we had banks
too big to fail in the 1980s, then the entire S&L Industry in
the 1990s. Then when Mexico went belly up, we saved them,
which gave us the last horrific leg of the bull market ( go
check a stock chart ) . Next we tried to bail out Asia and
Russia. It didn't work, so now we are reduced to bailing out
the first hedge fund ( AKA: leveraged investment partnerships ) .

This is the complete and total socialization of risk."
---------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

leland -- Even an American taxpayer has their limits. Especially when they are currently 95% tapped-out of credit. Can't do too much more buying. Can't do too much more bailing. Can't hardly hold their heads above water. And since we have laws regarding how many spouses we can have, we can't marry more wage earners. ALL DONE! The only recourse is too print like hell! Bail, bail, and bail faster! The absolute last gasp!!! The ship built of paper has gotten water logged. It sure could move fast though before that happened. Got a metal life boat?

back when the dust settles...$325?...$350?

good as gold, mates!

HuH? Ain't it kinda' special to have the President of Iranus, here without state invite, and the Crown Junior Shek of Faudia Arabia, probably here re-hareming, in the Big Jonathan at the same time? so special.....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....? Monty...let's make a deal.

S&P down -9.60
DJIA index down 80 points
Japan Nikkei 225 down -456.28 -3.21%

December Gold UP .90 at $297.30

"Got a metal life boat?" You betcha!!

Studio.R. -- Change is in the 'air' everywhere. Expect it. Climates are changing. Polar caps are melting. currencies are melting. Big winds are dropping down to blow over acres of trees within minutes. The big FAN is drawing in all kinds of S__t! Must be the times, or perhaps even the time of times. BUY commodities!

Leland -- Hope your 'metal' lifeboat ain't just 'printed' on some stock certificate. They come apart REAL fast! About 2 milli-seconds after the rest. An 'enhanced 'earning' in a totally devalued currency is squat!

we can live well on beef jerky and bud. G&P to YA!!!!

I asked him about what he thought about Long-Term Capital. He said "Oh yes, I heard about that" ( end of thought ) I asked him what he thought about Buffet having billions in cash right now. He said "I think it's bullish, he's got money to buy" I then proceeded to get her into gold.

Studio R.: I think you ought to put out a few water collectors -- if you have extras. You've got hurricane Georges making a beeline for Louisianna if it doesn't get clipped when it passes over Miami and Tampa.

I forget the names of the other two hurricanes waiting in the wings. Don't have a clue where they will wind up.

Studio -- Thought for sure that you could do a lot better than Bud. But you got any good hot sauce to add on top of that beef jerky?

Where do you think Rangy will be with gold at 600? How large will the brown spots be in the gold shorts, shorts? I feel a move coming on!

Just watching the noon news. 50% of Indonesians now on one meal a day. How many of you think "It can't happen to me!!" ??

Gold ( instead of Rupiah ) would buy a heap of food right now. The food is there for those with old yeller. For those against hoarding during good times, I ask you this. When crunch time comes,would you prefer to have me in front of you in the line at the soup kitchen??

Aussie gold shares up 4%+. Industrials down sharply. Normandy is on a tear--up 50% in 3 weeks. Cheesehead will like what Lihir is doing. BTW--where is the cheering section lately?? Suffering from BGS ( battered goldbug syndrome ) ??

"American "Welfare" Dollars" Welfare for Corporate/Government/Individual ?. All this economic threats of destabilization bullsh!t, is about power/control central/freedom eh!

My take is taxpayers/workers/citizens lives, and standard of living, and peace, in our community. Yes, Canadian dollars are also involved in this Russian/USofA madness, Russia is Canada's northern border neighbour, USofA Canada's southern border neighbour. Canada will not be able to "Duck and Cover" EH! ( All the action will be over our heads )

WE is in the middle, not a good place to be positioned.

I worry more about lives, not "welfare" Dollars ( paper ) .Are "they" ( are not the citizen's Russian/USofA/Canada ) getting GOLD "Welfare"? OR maybe "they" ARE ?

Thanks...Take Care [Mushrooms-R-Us]

There is a coin shop where I do my business. Most of their
building is allocated to storage safes. During the construction
of their facility, I wondered why they were using 4 - 5 times
the rebar that would normally be used. Then, I found out
that it would be a coin shop. Happy days. My cache is safe!

Studio -- If those dry ponds become an exigent problem, look into dew ponds. Understand they were used for centuries in Britain. 'Course, they do get a 'bit' more of the hydrated atmospheric condions over there. But if you get any dew on the autos that sit outside there in the mornings, chances are that they can work.

Dutchman, if you're lurking, How 'bout them Noles?

EldO, Isure owns all the deep pepperal rights underneath New Iberia, LA....we'll have to "cut him in" on the axshun. I likes dat' Bull Sauce , yessir, trappey's got tobasco beat IMO. bud is good and good for you. beware...chicken jerky makes you fart...fer sure.

Isure...Of what?........me and you control rangy...whataya' wanta do with it? Yessir, gold shorts now have fruits of da' loom well up their butt....me..me....me...me........ohmy.

Dec Gold up $1.10 to 297.50 according to MRCI ( delayed ) . Dec silver up .7 cent.
Now, also watch the corn! Touched a short term, but probably fairly important level today. Watch for Dec 2.09 behavior. I also think that dec wheat covered some important ground today. Corn typically follows, even within minutes at times, but sometimes a day. WATCH!

RADICAL FREE TRADE ...... the kind which creates MASTERS, rather than LEADERS!

Bob in DC

Yes-Yes-Yes & Foxhole : ) : ) : )
Take Care

Georges will be a dust storm when and if it makes it here. studio.seein'.mirages ;^ ) ~

December Gold UP $1.10at $297.50
Studio R.: I always wandered why I get a shifty look when I pull out my HP12C. Especially when I finance a new car. They hate that!
RJ: Pretty cool that the US mint takes you on a ship cruise? With all the Phillies you sell, maybe the Austrain Mint should fly you and a lady to see the Austrain Phillarmonic in concert. How about Canada? Backpacking with your very own Mountie for a guided tour? Hey, what if you work all the mints against each other? Hmmm I see some potential here!

Because whatever happens to make your hips want to shimmie, will also slam your ass right down to the concret. After all this time, does anyone really believe that the forces of nature are going to run their heat. NO! Once again: NO! This is fools gold. This is the world economy, this is political, this is 'them'. and they will not allow a few investors to railroad their goal. Nor will a natural cycle be permitted.

This whole world economial stiuation is being contained and reality has no place in it.

I still think that all of the action since Sept. 1 has been a 4th wave.
The good news ( if you still own stocks that is, you may still have time to get the hell out of them ) is that this will be the 5th, of wave ( 1 ) . Then we should get wave ( 2 ) up to a .382 of the total wave 1 decline. Look for wave 5 to go to the 7000 area at least...................IMPORTANT!!!!!!!!!!......I could be wrong, and this was all a wave 2, as an a-b-c, x, a-b-c. I spoke about this possibility many times in the past 3 weeks that the 1st wave was done, or that wave 1 of the 3rd was done! Remember, Elliot is a wonderful tool, ( even better in hindsight, just kidding, but oh so true )
if you are in the correct count, or even close.
What E-Wave is telling me is this, all countertrend corrective waves have only been able to go to a .382 retracement rather than a .618.
This IMHO, is why I feel that this thing has only just begun. The real ugly stuff is smack dab in front of us!!!
Not to be redundant, but I am re posting what I said here last night.
It was partially a reply to Gollum, and mostly my VHO about how I see whats happening.

Date: Wed Sep 23 1998 21:11
kapex ( Gollum: Your right, the Fed has done an incredible job of guiding ) ID#218223:
Copyright  1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the economy through the ebbs and flows of economic expansion and contraction. All, while keeping inflation under
control, and priming the pump before any slowdown feeds on itself, and an out and out recession takes hold.

The analysis of the markets reponse to what AG has/is accomplishing, is most likely correct....................BUT, what I
think most are/or have forgotten, is that while the rest of the globe is defaulting, our own DEBT situation here is worse
than anywhere else in the world.

What, well in excess of 5 Trillion $. Are we really in any position to bail out the world. Isn't it odd that we are in the
same situation as others, yet we delude ourselves with the notion that we can do something about it. Where pray tell, will
the money come from? We criticize Russia for wanting to print more Rubles,yet aren't we doing the same?

Did I hear today that profits year over year are flat or declining? Did I also hear that forecasts for the next year are flat at
best?

Just remember guys, that at the top, things look the rosiest. Why should the stock market continue to advance? ....Or let
me give you the answer I recieved when I asked one of my coworkers why the stock market should go up from here.
Why? His reply.......Because it will! It always does!

Sound reasoning if you ask me.

I've been talking about the psychology of this market for some time now here at kitco. At extremes, the old cliche " You
can't see the forrest for the trees " is so true. If Sept. 1st was the bottom, where are the fundamentals to support a rising
stock market from these levels. Earnings growth 0% over the next year,PE ratios still higher than in 1987. You do
remember what happened when PE ratios were last at these levels,.....Don't you?

Oh! but we could ease interest rates and that will solve everything, right? Have you seen the balance of trade lately? If
the rest of the globe can't buy our goods because they are in a recession/depression, than how long before we/are begin
to lay people off. Guys, this stuff feeds on itself. If I lose my job, I can't buy your widget. Then you get laid off and can't
buy his car and so on and so on. Well we could just create more money can't we? SURE, why not, Forrest / Trees.
Aren't we at historic levels in personal debt right now? Govt. debt?

This ..........Thing, that is unfolding before our very eyes right now across the world is the result of the excesses that we (
govt ) created.

The failure to do what was right in the past is what will make any effort we try to fix now, futile. Look at what Donald
just posted from Yahoo.

We are not an island. I really don't think we can just print our way out of this mess.........Thats what got us here in the
first place!!!!!!!

The market traded to a .382 retracement of the entire decline.

I really don't think you wan't to get long in here guys.

Why should we continue to go up from here?

Remember my post a while ago. This will be looked back upon in the future as ....The great 401K bubble!

Nikkei down 400+. Dow down 150+. Gold is finally moving... up. Did I miss something? :- ) )

BoardReader -- Freetrade = Freelunch, For a few multinationals. But only works for awhile. Eventually, there free ride runs out when their consumer has become debt 'consumed'. You notice that they haven't done much in the way of making new consumers out of those they employ with decent wages. Only indebted them/used them for their slave-like labor. NOW the buck begins to stop, and they cry fowl! HAR!!!

--no need to pee in the puchbowl at our party. Go see your banker's party.

Gold future up $1.00 now. This should bring a twinkle to the goldbug's eyes. After suffering abuse at the hands of my paper toting colleages for a couple of years and taking losses it is indeed a pleasure to ask how their equity stocks are doing and show them that my gold stocks aren't doing so bad as of late. Yep, there is much pleasure in all of this. I have not yet taken to crowing though, knowing how gold as a fickle mistress can turn on us in a heartbeat. It has so many times be we keep, like starsmitten lovers, returning to her embrace.

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9809/24/itbanks.idg/

September 23, 1998

Clinton backs higher military budget

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- President Bill Clinton is calling for an immediate increase in military spending and asking top defence advisers to make their case for a bigger budget in the long run, published reports say.


Cohen said last week that deficiencies affecting U.S. war-making capability can be addressed and he pledged to work with Clinton and Congress "to assure that our armed forces have the resources they need to protect U.S. interests."


The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the military leaders -- if asked -- were ready to tell Clinton that planned defence budgets of $250 billion must be increased by as much as $10 billion to $15 billion annually to stave off problems with modernizing weapons, fixing crumbling bases and bankroll meaningful training.

The Clinton letter disclosed Tuesday did not mention specific amounts.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Clinton-Military.html

Kapex -- You said the bottom line.and it's true. IF I can not any longer buy your widget that took twenty people to build, then that is twenty less people you need to build them. AND it DOES feed on itself as those twenty people will no longer be buying that widget. TOO bad those multi-nationals in the third world countries wern't paying people such that they TOO could buy widgets. GEESH, what a simple concept to 'overlook' for short-term profits. Screw 'em!!!

...and start up a US hedge fund. You can't lose on hedge funds. The Fed guarantees it!! Why own gold when you can gamble away billions and get bailed out by the gov't.?? I might even get a Nobel prize in economics!!The Queen would give me a Knighthood. Get on your knees Kitcoites! You are in the presence of Sir Nick!!

If today is any indication of what to expect from Y2K we
better watch out. I went to the grocery store to pick up some
hurricane supplies and was totally amazed. The shelves
of the grocery store were picked clean...no batteries, no
water, no flashlights, no kitty litter, no soup, no crackers,
etc. More than one half of the grocery store items were
gone. Luckily I have some Y2K supplies already which should
take care of any immediate needs.

I'm currently in a level 3 evacuation zone for Hurricane
George and never expected the grocery store to be this
sold out. I can guarantee you I will continue to accumulate
my Y2K supplies ( right along with gold ) after my shock today.
Better safe than sorry.

Nick@C -- 'Cause even THAT will be coming to an end as it snowballs! That AND a total devaluation of those bucks anyway. So what's the gain? Buy metals and sleep at night instead!!!

Okay, let's see here now.......hmmmmmmm....2 ( enter ) .........hmmmmmmmmm....2 ( + ) ........WoW! FOUR! BTW..where's the hell's the equal sign?... ( shhhhhh...I use a 12c too ) .....a NPV monster, no doubt.

For our OktOberFest, what do you recommend we serve with the paper sandwiches? Durkee's or Grey Poupon? ;^ ) ~

Yellow brick roads! GOLDilocks and the three BEARS. The goose that laid the GOLDEN egg. Rumpelstiltskin spinning wheat into GOLD.

These are a few of my favorite things!

I am predicting DOW DOWN 700 tomorrow. Just so that we can get back to irrational exhuberance levels. Last big fall was after Russian default. LTCM matters, credit contractions matter, margin calls matter, increased lending risks matter, ALL MORE THAN AN IRRELEVENT DECREASE IN THE FED FUNDS RATE! ( Which I still dont think will materialize )

Invest on my advice at your own risk.

I finally heard back from the guy I know who sells Y2K software for mainframes.
-EJ

I had a similar discussion with a broker ( not mine ) who called me today to invite me to one of his seminars. The first words out of my mouth when I picked up the phone was "how about those gold stocks". His reaction surprised me as it gave me the impression he didn't even consider today's rally worth any further discussion. In fact, I believe his exact words were "Up $4.00, big deal". I think he is suffering from a bad case of tunnel vission which could be fatal in today's markets..

If I recall correctly, he finished the conversation telling me how he was going to tell his clients at the seminar that capital losses aren't all that bad as they can be used to offset capital gains. Oh boy, do I wish him the best of luck with that sales pitch. That'll sure calm his clients down ( *grin ) I don't think he is going to get a standing ovation with that style of presentation and if he doesn't tune into what's happening soon, he may be risking his life by attending such seminars in person.

Regards

Rolly

of the prevailing mindset most everywhere right now!!!!

Rolly -- Unless those 'investors are in Waahoo, opps, Yahoo, I don't think they'll be particularly amused.

nytol ( copyright teddO )

My comment about my mom's broker really made some lights go on for me. He ended saying that he couldn't buy gold stocks but that he'd be watching my mom's account and "living vicariously through her" as if gold was just about as risky as you could get. He can't buy gold stocks though because it's not part of "company policy" ( as a figure of speach ) It occured to me that there has been a great marketing job done on the Markets. Much like the cigar trend ( IMHO ) got going from the marketing of the magazine "Cigar Officionado", a whole industry has been set up having nothing to do with fundamentals at all, but to get the heard to buy Mutual Funds.

Nick@C I will set up a new corp and give you 100 billion in paper gold assets for you to set up your new hedge fund! All you have to do is make me 500 percent on my money! But then again, what is money? I wouldn't give anyone 100 billion in gold bullion!

But this 'ain't' no party. This site is a ton of frustration coming out because a carrot was tossed into the ring.

Shoot, everyone knows that here. It's just time to have some fun . So I will to. :- )

Jerry

SOLON ... SOLON .... wo bist du?

Congratulations Marshall. It took a few tries but you did get noticed. I know you've been reminded already that your post ( s ) breaks all of our "be

nice" netiquette rules.

I guess it's time now to move on to bigger and better discussion groups. There are many sites around that will be quite receptive to your contributions. In them, you'll find the discourse that you seek. But don't attempt any intelligent analysis of the precious metals markets or you may be asked to leave. Here's a few to get you started:

soc.culture.palestine

soc.culture.lebanon

soc.culture.jewish

soc.culture.israel

alt.revisionism

Have fun. Don't forget to write.

I never use the HP, I just take it out to scare the TI guys.
I always found Grey Poupon covers up the burnt taste best.

Here we sit and watch as before has the true gold bull finally got a shot in the ass to get it moving or are we going to stumble and fall as the goverment tells more lies and pulls the wool over are eyes. 300 gold is still cheap 400 gold is normal and 500 gold spells trouble to all like me who can't understand why gold is so cheap and why no one thinks gold is a safe haven anymore must have loved the metal in a past life or was born with traces in are blood ::kick that bull and hold on
go gold go

Batten down the hatches

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/satdat/goes8_images/trop_atlantic_ir/LATEST.jpeg

All kinds of storms, financial & weather both. Physical holdings looking better every day. Rare coins and stox are up, all thats left is the gold derivatives market to take off...

Just got into Kitco to check the chatter. The up and down Noles. Great test against USC this weekend, if Georges doesn't beat them both! Garnet & Gold, hummmm, I do like the gold part. Last chance to get on the gold train. It's headed north. I expect gold to sell off in late day trading, probably slightly down for the day. That's when I'll buy more. Go Gold! Go Penn State! Go JoePa!

How many Mounties do you have left? Spot $305 they are a steal!

I have been a keen watcher and follower of Gold for a couple ( 3 ) three years, and sensing after much study, that the current monetary system was heading for trouble invested a great deal in Gold and Gold related stocks. Being somewhat poorer today... count it in the $100ks X many, I sense we have reached the bottom, and there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully I will be proven correct.

But... its becoming clearer each day ( yet to be discovered by the American people and many others ) that a great falsehood has been perpetrated upon billions of people. The chickens are coming home to roost. Value will be found in creating real wealth, real products, real services, and the exchange media is about to be normalized. What I may loose in real wealth will be exchanged to millions ( those producing NIKE shoes at 12 cents each only to see them sold for $115 ) for their work! But at least I and they will understand and agree to the media of exchange. Then in a fair system, we will be made equal.

Am I angry that the short changers ( even in the Bible they were despised ) had their way with me? You Bet! But the day of reckoning for them is here. This tussel will not be won in a day, but now the tide is turning. A great vote of thanks to Clinton ... who will cheerfully swing publicly for the next two years as the great tactical rube goldberg, media driven, opinion survey management system he has put in place unravels. I fear the costs. I will personally be made financially whole. But there is going to be a great deal of pain extracted as the house of cards, as we now see it, crumbles.

Sorry to be so prophetic, but I needed to vent. Thanks

Thursday September 24, 7:49 pm Eastern Time

World Bank guards AAA rating as loan demand soars.

The annual report said the World Bank made the largest new loan commitments in its history in the fiscal year to June 30, 1998, with pledges totaled nearly $29 billion, including $16 billion to crisis-ravaged Asian states in support of rescue packages put together by the International Monetary Fund.

By the end of the fiscal year, $5.65 billion of this money to Asia had been paid out.

``When we see ourselves as getting involved in these EMERGENCIES, it is not to in any way substitute or supplement the IMF's crisis management role,'' Malloch Brown said.

The World Bank denied the increase in adjustment lending was due to a cash shortage at the IMF, which has been warning for months that its cash reserves were nearly depleted.

The World Bank could also increase the amount it borrows on capital markets.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980924/bf7.html

The World Bank has only funded $5.65 Billion of the $16 Billion promised; and the IMF and the President wants the US to fund $18 Billion more to the IMF. What is wrong with this picture? I would like to see the contributions from the other 100+ countries.

I still say that $18 Billion is not going to solve all of the worlds problems.

When the World Bank has to come out publicly and proclaim how solvent they are; I for one, I become suspicious when I here this kind of press release.

HighRise

Crazytimes -- And unfortunately, 401K plans do not have an option to have your funds placed in metals, much less stocks in metals. How do you remove it without suffering the tax penalties? I found that just simply not involving oneself with it and putting those funds you would otherwise put in into the physical metals works nicely. One worries about the loss of the employers contributions and tax? BIG deal! That only means you expect it all to be there for you down the road. I can only say, 'GROW UP'! My metals in the ground will be worth more in purchasing power than they'll ever see! 'Tis a small small temporary price I pay in forgoing their 'priveleges'! Sometimes one must just simply bite the bullet and say 'NO' for the longer term good! This is just stage one. Eventually, ALL of mozels statements of fact must again be made true. In their own time. That, or absolute and total slavery!

Boardreader -- English Please? Not currently up on foreign languages. Forgot everything I ever knew about them from extreme lack of use and would not trust my rusty memory in trying to guess. Thanks.