Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:00 - ID#333126)
@Free Kiwi
I like your strategy - sounds decidedly like mine. However, there's a big difference - namely that I'm a 22 year old overseas student studying in Australia looking to make some quick bucks.

imho, at 40-something, you shouldn't be putting all your money in puts. a little too risky. It's something for 20-somethings to do. Only those who haven't got massive amounts of retirement savings, mortgages and wifes and/or children to worry about can be expected to hang on smugly even when the value of those puts drops dangerously overnight ... ( so my timing sucks, so sue me -- plunging a bit more in on Monday or Tuesday )

email me at if you want to discuss those Aussie bank puts ( I might learn more from you than you from me though... )

cheers, mate.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:01 - ID#247273)
Free Kiwi, Gollum
Free Kiwi: Join the global club, sir, in the confoundment of what to do, and of course the higher the stakes, the more worry. But , being a geologist, you of course grasp the good earth and its riches. It appears you strayed to the words and advice of men of finance, who led you to loss. Stay the course of the earth and its truth and riches that only it can provide. It seems that, the moment we get greedy in the ways of man, we set our selves to lose to those men.

Gollum: Lay off the western movies. Come on down here and sit in the Crystal Palace in Tombstone, and know what it must have really been like.
Wyatt and the boys, Oct 1881.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:01 - ID#257151)
Put your money in pigs, I say, I knew I'd seen a picture of a korean pig on line---

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:02 - ID#45173)
@Oak, Shek, and Free Kiwi
Oak, I don't subscribe to the Fin De Le Monde either. The world keeps on turning, although the stuff on it gets rearranged from time to time. Financial markets are cyclical. Equities. Bonds. Commodities. Equities. Bonds. Commodities. Equities. Bonds. Commodities. Etc. Not necessarily in that order. The trick is to be in the right place in each cycle. The machine might stop while it's being refitted for the next run, but the machine lives on.

Shek, the only thing worse than a company with a with a P/E many times its growth rate is a company with an infinite P/E with lots of competition and invisible barriers to entry. Yahoo, for example. I you can get the timing right, you can make a bundle shorting that one. But a wildly overinflated stock is statistically just as likely to keep going up as go down at any moment in time.

Free Kiwi, thanks for the thoughtful post.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:02 - ID#254321)
Last post for the night. Goodnight all!
Petronius: You are absolutely right. That is what the Gini index is showing -- that ever since about 1965 the average American has bee losing ground to what Sarkar calls the acquisitors. ( effectively - financial parasites ) .

You are also right that the rural people are suffering in the US -- that is why they use the barter method of trade -- no taxes to pay. In some ways however they are better off then we in the cities are, because they are more independent already. Most Americans are far from independent, and many would not have a clue what to do if they had to be. Very bad.

What I am hoping is that the serial world-wide financial crises continue to occur serially, with no final total world-wide cataclysm, with everyone falling into the fire and brimstone. Unfortunately a derivatives fiasco might do it.

If the US ( or other major economy ) survives long enough for other major economies to come back on their feet first, all the better for the rest of us on this earth.

You can rest assured that America will face the music eventually with a depression, as each time we manipulate our economy to avoid the next recession, we weaken the entire system. But -- no one can say whether it will happen tomorrow -- months from now, y2k or in 2010-2015.

If by some miracle we make it past y2k without a major upheaval, I think it is a preety safe bet that we will have a major depression around 2010-2015, as that will be when all us baby boomers retire, only to find out that the Social Security has been stolen to cover years and years of deficits. Gold will undoubtedly go to thousands of dollars an ounce by then.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:02 - ID#43349)
Calling it a night
It's been a good week. An interesting week. Perhaps even a historical week.

And my pocketbook feels little heavier.

Good night.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:04 - ID#286230)
Somebody wake Jesse Helms
and tell him he can sleep assured that Sherritt got through the storm OK.

Sherritt says Cuba mine unaffected by hurricane

TORONTO, Sept 25 ( Reuters ) - Canadian mining firm Sherritt International Corp. said on
Friday its operations in Cuba were unscathed by a deadly hurricane sweeping through the

Hurricane Georges has cut a swath of destruction stretching from Puerto Rico to the
Florida Keys, killing almost 200 people and leaving thousands homeless and without basic

Toronto-based Sherritt took precautions earlier this week as the hurricane approached its
nickel and cobalt mine at Moa on the northwestern part of the communist-governed island.

The hurricane ripped through Cuba on Thursday.

"There has been no impact other than that we certainly spent time preparing the operations
and readying our people for anything that might have happened. Now, we're undoing those
preparations," said Sherritt spokeswoman Patrice Merrin Best.

Merrin Best said production at the mine, which produced 13,588 tonnes of nickel and
cobalt in the first half of the year, was continuing as normal.

She also said the hurricane did no damage to Sherritt's oil and gas operations in Cuba.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:05 - ID#219363)
And everyone should own some physical - it's pretty! Maybe something as small as a silver dollar, or a golden eagle ( which retains it's luster very well and stays pretty ) . Of course, if you've got real money, at these prices go ahead and buy a bunch of gemstones, silver bars, etc, and commission someone to cast your wife's body in silver adorned with gems and put it in the sitting room. To each his or her own.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:08 - ID#219363)
Oh man, you're a genius, I just gotta get me one a them. How much ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:13 - ID#257151)
CPO & Gianni
You guys were asking before about gold confiscation in the UK, have a look here for a potted history..


(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:16 - ID#254321)
The market bubble is relative
EJ: Your comments about Dell are interesting. I think the economic cushion of the US is based on the computer and the information revolution, so there is some justification for Dell and othe computer companies to do well.

But -- that does not mean you are wrong about our having a market bubble. I do not know how far our markets will go down when they do go down, but I do know that Dell will not do well if they have no one that can buy their product. It is amazing how cheap computers are now -- like the automobile just after 1925.

What really makes me mad is knowing that we ( as humans ) could do better. There is no reason why we should forget how to be self sufficient, or how to save, or why not to get in debt, but that is what we have done.

The Chinese have a saying -- rags to riches, back to rags -- in three generations.

Untill we as humans can better retain the knowledge of our forebears, we are condemned to these cycles of wealth and hardship.

Good night! Spouse is calling. Not so softly anymore.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:17 - ID#240241)
Mole (thanks for the info)
Bought HM & BMG based on the volume & increase in price 2 weeks ago.
LOL, tried to get CDE when silver took that first hop a couple of days ago. My bid missed by $.50 both days ( LOL ) CDE is one of the ones I got
burned on badly in August, you would think I would learn. Drooy I bought
because everyone here seems to own it ( notice how skillfully I invest ) .
I've done well everytime I've bought ECO & RYO even though RYO was another one I got burned on, but managed to hang on to it until it
rebounded. I believe RYO had a write-off of $180 Mil? Not in either
one of those at the moment but think RYO was one of the few to move up
today. Write down didn't seem to faze it ( yet ) .

Anyone have a forecast on Silver ( HECLA & CDE ) over the next few months?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:21 - ID#153110)
Invest in H&R Block. Where a man's purse is there shall his heart be also. OK. Want diversification ? West Publishing. What better lock could there be than a company with a copyright on the law ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:28 - ID#335190)
USofA Fast Track Trade Treaties (MAI) @ Defeated (Republican "IF Worldwide Depression"
September 25, 1998

House rejects effort to expand president's trade powers

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The House of Representatives rejected a Republican-led attempt Friday to enhance the president's ability to negotiate trade treaties. The effort to give the president so-called fast track negotiating powers was defeated by 243-180, killing it until at least next year.

Its demise came as no surprise to lobbyists and vote counters from both sides, who for days had realized the proposal was hopelessly doomed.

Republicans said they wanted one last crack during this Congress at helping to expand U.S. trade opportunities, especially as farm prices are plummeting at home and economies are stumbling abroad.

With election day barely five weeks away, they didn't hesitate to point their fingers at fast track's Democratic foes.

"If this goes down and we end up in a steep, worldwide depression, some of us will have the comfort of knowing we cast the right vote," House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Georgia Republican, said just before the vote

Republicans voted 151-71 for the measure, a surprisingly high proportion of No votes. Among Democrats, 171 were opposed and 29 voted for the bill.
The one independent voted No.

Free Kiwi
(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:29 - ID#156396)
Yes, I do hold shares in Lihir but at the first sign of political trouble ( remember Bougaiville - one of the biggest and prfitable Cu/Au mines in the world ) I will get out. But because Lihir first floated in a bear gold market the potential upside is very good. I agree with an earlier post re: gold mines in the US. Keep your gold investments out of 3'rd world countries - I don't consider Australia a 3'rd world country by the way!!.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:31 - ID#219363)
Frenchman Swims Across Atlantic
QUIBERON, France ( AP ) -- A Frenchman who set out to swim the Atlantic 71 days ago completed his marathon 3,400-mile journey Friday. Benoit Lecomte, 31, who began his swim from the sandy beaches of Hyannis, Mass., came ashore on the rugged Brittany coast near the town of Quiberon. Lecomte thus becomes the first person to swim across the Atlantic without assistance from support devices, said his publicist, Colleen Turner.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:31 - ID#153110)
@Eldorado Locating Law in the legal system now requires yet a higher magnification
microscope than before. In some parts of the legal system, for example the tax code and court decisions thereon, electron micrscopy is already needed to find any Law in it. Evidence for Optical illusion is strong at that level of magnification.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:33 - ID#255151)
Tortfeasor--Re $2,500

Salted away a few lorrins in this one over the last few weeks.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:33 - ID#257151)

Mooney and Not_Sam both went out of their way to help me get a korean pig, all the way from Korea, via Canada to NZ. It was a tail ( sic ) of drama and intrigue, messages at airports, meetings in markets, my pig is well travelled. It is the 5 don variety and was above spot, a gift for my better half. I am now convincing the NZ authorities that little peeg is an ornament, not an item of jewellery to get a refund of 4.5% - the custons tarrif that was imposed and that it is 24K ( and thus I should be refunded GST of 12.5% ) calculated cumulatively on the first tax..just love wrasslin with the revenooers..

here is an earlier post..

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:35 - ID#153110)
@It's a Third World After All
From the Book "New Lyrics for Old Melodies". Published By Mozel Press

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:37 - ID#255151)
Tortfeasor-- Correction

Try this--

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:37 - ID#45173)
JTF - posting reply even if you've been dragged off by your wife already
The unique thing about this bubble is it's size and duration have created the illusion that it's a permanent fixture.

Imagine a soap bubble that's landed next to you in the bath. You ignore it, assuming it like all bubbles you've seen before will quickly pop. But it doesn't. In fact, it gets bigger. When you take a bath the next day, to your amazement, it's still there. Bigger than ever. After a few days you start to get used to it. A few weeks later you stop thinking of it as a bubble at all but rather as a fixture that's always been there and will always be there. Then one day you're taking a bath and it pops. You're shocked. Eventually you calm down and realize how silly you were to have thought it was fixture when it was only a bubble.

We have not reached a permanently high plateau, even though it feels like one, or even a safe mesa. In fact, it's probably at the moment when it most feels that way that in reality it is most not that way.

AG is doing an admirable job so far at deflating it gradually. But not everything is under the man's control.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:45 - ID#219363)
The Fallout From Long-Term Capital
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The Long-Term Capital Management L.P. debacle reverberated around the world Friday as more big banks posted losses from their involvement with the private investment fund that was rescued from near collapse. The fallout extended beyond losses from the likes of Germany's Dresdner Bank AG, Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group and UBS AG. Stocks of financial companies initially were pummeled as investors worried about their exposure but they later recovered. Some financial markets also suffered, reflecting concern by investors and others others that Long-Term Capital might not be the only investment fund in trouble and that the full effects of its problems have not yet been felt. While the U.S. stock market bounced back from steep early losses, some overseas markets, including London, Frankfurt and Paris, closed lower.
Aplogies if this particular wire was already posted.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:49 - ID#247273)
EJ, bubbles
AG and others before him have played out the same scenario again and again, believing always that this time is different. Your assessment of his performance in todays situation probably also mirrors the same thoughts of similar wizards at equivalent times past. The problem is in the aftermath, all is swept away ( or should we say flushed away ) with the bursting of the bubble. A man like Greenspan has had many opportunities to steer clear, but he has chosen the circle of his friends the bankers. So they prosper together, so will they perish together.
His best course now is to renounce the loose course. The Germans already took this action months ago. Loosening will only tighten the noose around he and his banker friends necks. Now is the time for courage. Be brave when others are afraid, and afraid when others are afraid..... and so it continues, a rerun of a rerun.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:49 - ID#350145)
oak - cde & hl
i know what you'r saying. i guess i feel silver has a better upside than gold and there are so few silver mines, i feel i have to own cde and hl. if we do get an upside move in both g & s i think there will be few choices for silver. but i must admit this is based only on theory, some old history and i do think they are in good shape financially and near the bottom. i have gold covered in some obscure long term wts. on silver, i can't see how the comex stocks are going to get replenished ( outside of india ) . anybody have any thoughts on that?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:49 - ID#219363)
That's awesome stuff, I'm sure she's going to love it.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:51 - ID#335190)
World Unemployment @ Global Financial Crisis-Grow by Millions More by year end

ILO World Employment Report 1998-99

Global Financial Crisis Will Trigger Jump in World Unemployment

Thursday 24 September 1998
Released simultaneously in Geneva and Washington D.C. ( ILO/98/33 )

GENEVA ( ILO News ) - The number of unemployed and underemployed workers around the world has never been higher and will grow by millions more before the end of the year as a result of the financial crisis in Asia and other parts of the world, says the International Labour Office ( ILO ) in its latest World Employment Report * issued today in Geneva.

Among the highlights of the World Employment Report:

Some one billion workers - one third of the world's labour force - remain unemployed or underemployed, a figure that is largely unchanged from ILO estimates contained in its World Employment Report 1996-97;

Of the one billion total, some 150 million workers are actually unemployed, or seeking or available for work. Of these 150 million, 10 million unemployed have been generated this year due to the financial crisis in Asia alone;

In addition, 25 to 30% of the world's workers - or between 750 million and 900 million people - are underemployed, ie., either working substantially less than full-time, but wanting to work longer or earning less than a living wage;

The ILO estimates some 60 million young people, between the ages of 15 and 24, are in search of work but cannot find it;

The global unemployment and underemployment picture contained in the 1998-99 report contrasts sharply with developments expected since the last World Employment Report was issued in 1996, when the ILO said that a number of encouraging signs heralded a global economic revival and would cut unemployment and underemployment worldwide.

"The first half of 1998 has actually seen economic growth in many parts of the world," Mr. Hansenne said. "However, this revival, which we anticipated would spur higher jobs growth in all parts of the world, has only cut unemployment and underemployment in the United States, and to a lesser degree in the European Union."

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:52 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' I have the utmost respect for your varied thougth patterns as I
find them to weave both question and answer seeking to attain what John Dewey attempted when he wrote "The Quest for Certainty"...

"Where a man's purse is there shall his heart be also."

I am living proof that the quote above is not belongs to you...I ain't all that...neither my brain...nor my heart are/is controlled by the width or breadth of wealth...and fabric which might tain a con that I do not believe in...

With all due respect...palms up...greeting you...yup...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:54 - ID#335379)
Hello all: Input please... An opportunity from a bus. contact came to me today..
and I could use some wisdom. I have only one K left of dry powder.
The deal is 2000 cheap options restricted for one year. Due to change to Nasdaq
from Canada exchange withing a year. Company specialises in high grade minnerals, white rock, abrasives etc. Is this a good risk even if we go through the deflation now? My contact says even in recession people still build houses and roads etc. Hmm? Purported returns of 20X to 200X. This was unsolicited.
Just came up in the course of mentioning my investments in mining.
The fundamentals look good, they are top dog in terms of competition, if things go well in USA ( prime customer ) . If things don't go well here? dunno.
Please comment

(Sat Sep 26 1998 00:58 - ID#286230)
Is this a Vancouver stock in the pennies?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:00 - ID#335379)
hello Selby. Yes just uder a buck US.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:02 - ID#31868)
Nickodemus, Namaste' I offer a thought...risk nothing that might decrease the Love of yourself
and the manner in which you hold close to the breast which houses your heart that BEATS to be alive and offers all that is YOU to the ones you LOVE...

as you see fit...make sure your sight is 20/20 on the above comment...

HOW MUCH? is enough...a soul is not just something on a shoe or a plate...

Gulps and puffs to ya...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:03 - ID#247273)
need to do much more research and investigation on this one. Don't give them a dime ( US$ ) until you know and trust the management, their financial situation ( i.e. debt ) , their REAL prospects ( sales ) , and what your path of exit will be for $$$ gain. Sounds like a lark, but you must do the necessary work. NO such thing as an easy $$ in this biz.
but you should know that.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:04 - ID#335190)
Friday, September 25, 1998 Published at 20:24 GMT 21:24 UK

World: Europe

Russian government 'in tatters'

Amid political wrangling, the economic crisis deepens

Russia's fledgling government has been thrown back into
turmoil, as centrist Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander
Shokhin, resigned following the reappointment of liberal
Mikhail Zadornov as finance minister.

Although from different
political parties - Mr Shokhin is
from the centrist party, Our
Home is Russia, and Mr
Zadornov from the reformist
Yabloko faction - they are not
from opposite ends of the
political spectrum.

But Mr Shokhin has blamed
much of the economic crisis on
Mr Zadornov, who held the
post of finance minister in the
previous government.
But talks between Russia and the International Monetary
Fund about a new loan have ended without agreement.

The IMF team refused to recommend that Moscow receive
the next instalment of a $22m loan package.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:05 - ID#153110)
John Dewey... Hmmm. American Collectivist without a Party Card as I recall.
Anywho, prophets, mystics, poets, and certain classes of visionaires in general sometimes suppose themselves exempt from proverbs and sayings. I don't argue the point with them. However, if you figure a man keeps his treasure in his purse, this saying has a pretty good authority behind it. I think.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:05 - ID#340344)
OK, I may be the first to say it. How's about posting your
thoughts *once*, and then let it go, so our Kitco site is not so
jammed up? Not only did you double-post, which would normally
be forgiveable, but sheesh, repeating posts from previous days, and even from last year? Come on, you've posted that thing what, 15 times?
Peace and prosperity....

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:05 - ID#286230)
I looked into a Vancouver stock that held a property that produced all kinds of gravel and industrial rock about a year ago. I think it was under C 20 cents at that time. Might be the same one I guess. Can't remember the name of the stock or why I lost contact with it. Seemed to me that it was going to be valuable if there was a building boom.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:10 - ID#373403)

This is a must read.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:16 - ID#335379)
Hello Tolerant One: Thank you for sharing your sensativity. I oft seem to focus on diversity
and do not do one thing in excellence even though I strive for excellence in all that I do. Yea but for wisdom to do well with the bandwidth God has to me given. even in the ways of investing. A good faith hand shake to you! Tis my Lord that sayeth
that where a man's treasure is thier also will he find his heart. The treasure need not be always mamon. As you do treasure many others above wealth so do I. That is treasure indeed. Wisdom is to be sought after more than fine gold.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:18 - ID#45173)
You're right that to the man behind the curtain, it must feel like the right thing to do, tho only time will tell.

The Germans now avoid dropping rates for self-interested reasons. They have significant inflation. A rate drop is the last thing they need.

An argument can be made that this market is so darned efficient that a rate drop's already reflected in stock prices. As far as the stock market's concerned, the rate drop's already happened. Thus the actual drop will do nothing. Except too low a drop will hurt the market ( What? Isn't the Fed taking this situation seriously?! ) and too high a drop will also hurt the market ( What? Does the Fed know something we don't know? Are we really in that much trouble?! ) .

AG used to have to play hints about rate increases versus no rate increases, then increase versus decrease, then really an increase versus definately a decrease, and finally a little decrease versus a bigger one... see where this is going? The dude is totally out of wiggle room.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:19 - ID#373403)
LTCM from Reuters

11 firms paying $300 million as follows:

-- Securities firms Merrill Lynch and Co. Inc. ( NYSE:MER - news ) , Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. ( NYSE:MWD - news ) , Travelers Group Inc. ( NYSE:TRV - news ) and Goldman Sachs.

-- U.S. banks J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc. ( NYSE:JPM - news ) , Bankers Trust Corp. ( NYSE:BT - news ) and Chase Manhattan Corp. ( NYSE:CMB - news ) .

-- Foreign banks Deutsche Bank AG ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: DBKG.F ) , CS Group , Union Bank of Switzerland and Barclays Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BARC.L ) .

Lehman Bros Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:LEH - news ) , Paribas and Societe Generale would contribute lesser amounts of around $100 million.

Long-Term Capital said the consortium injecting capital was also forming an oversight committee including ``representatives of Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Co. Inc. ( NYSE:MER - news ) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. ( NYSE:MWD -news ) , Travelers Group Inc. ( NYSE:TRV - news ) and Union Bank of Switzerland .''

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:22 - ID#219363)
NATO Prepares Yugoslavia Attacks
VILAMOURA, Portugal ( AP ) -- For the first time, the NATO allies plan to take the offensive, readying bombers, missiles and warships to strike at a European neighbor that, at best, poses a vague threat to them. The Kosovo crisis has dragged them into something new: They are publicly planning for hostilities, rather than reacting to them. During 45 Cold War years, NATO never said it would not be the first to strike. Nor did it say it would be. It kept Moscow at bay with the threat of massive retaliation to any attack, a strategy that worked so well the allies were able to reap a huge ``peace dividend'' when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:23 - ID#45173)
G'Nite all

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:23 - ID#335379)
Hello AZAU, and thankyou for your comments I am attending to those DD items. so far so good.
But if US starts crashing that could be well outside the Companies info. TRying to measure global risk with corprate projections. The projectiions/debt look purty good so far. I am trying to get a feel for the intangible of total market risk verses
business type.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:24 - ID#252150)
Nicodemus@Slightly better odds than the 649 lottery
Many Cdn micro-caps think that by listing on NAS they will then proceed down the yellow brick road. It's been my experience that more often than not they end up worse off because of even more manipulation by mkt mkrs, shorts etc. A good example is Newbridge. When they first listed on NAS they were greeted by a huge short position. Even though ther earnings were good & increasing the shorts kept a lid on their share price. They never did get the share price up until they delisted from NAS & listed on NY.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:27 - ID#219363)
Europeans Downplay Global Money Woe
VIENNA, Austria ( AP ) -- European finance ministers downplayed fears that the spreading global economic turmoil threatens to derail growth within the region as it prepares to launch its single currency next year. "Europe has become an anchor of financial stability," Austrian Finance Minister Rudolf Edlinger said Friday as a two-day meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from European Union nations got under way. "We expect dynamic economic growth in 1999." Edlinger's optimism was echoed by other officials at the meeting despite signs that the worldwide financial turbulence is beginning to take some of the shine off Europe's economic recovery. Italy forecast its economy will grow just 1.8 percent this year instead of the 2.5 percent forecast last spring. Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Thursday revised Germany's growth projection to "around 2.5 percent" compared to an earlier forecast of 3 percent. However, EU officials said confidence in the strength of the coming European currency, the euro, and sound policies producing low inflation and falling budget deficits would shield Europe from the worst of the global crisis.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:32 - ID#219363)
Lawmakers To Probe Hedge Funds
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The near-collapse this week of a huge, largely unregulated investment fund has pushed lawmakers to investigate the potential risks to the economy and banking system from such hedge-fund operations. Rep. Jim Leach, R-Iowa, chairman of the House Banking Committee, announced Friday that the panel will hold a hearing soon on the $3.5 billion private bailout of Long-Term Capital Management LP by a group of major banks and brokerage firms. At issue is whether lawmakers should consider imposing new controls on hedge funds. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, speaking to reporters after giving a speech at a Washington high school, declined to take a position on whether new government controls were needed. He noted that the cash infusion into the hedge fund was made by private companies, with no public money involved. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently told Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., chairman of the House Banking subcommittee on capital markets, at a hearing that hedge funds are "very strongly regulated" by the bankers who lend them money and no new government action was needed. But Rubin said lawmakers should consider taking a closer look, Baker said.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:33 - ID#247273)
I concur, his circumlocution on the economy is becoming ever more
tired and tiring. Words only serve to certain lengths, and then action must tell the tale. I highly respect his learned and astute observations
and aphorisms, but these words are only arrows in the intellectual quiver, and the hard cold reality will prevail over words, regardless of their eloquence. Would that he return to his roots and pull that lone gilded arrow from his quiver, and perforce fire that torpedo of truth into the waning bubble of myth created by the mania that he knows full well to be engulfing all!

forgive the oratory, but it seems to fit.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:38 - ID#31868)
Exemplary be youI hope not like Bob although such wood but not like plank which is exactly what you just made me walk intellectuallyand if I am them I am a crowd of oneand seek not to argue but learn from those whom I respectknuckles still draggingtrying my BESTEST to catch up without tomatoes

And the blade which is your mind is being honed on a strap of leather that makes Cows wince

For meit would be a privilege to stand tall once and shoulder with the likes of youyupNamaste'

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:40 - ID#247273)
If you are trying to bet against all contingencies, including us crash, then it is a long shot by any measure. If you are playing against such a downside scenario, then a gold producer, not gravel is the way to go. In other words, dont try to fit that company to your beliefs about the future, but instead find a company that fits your already established and stayed beliefs. in my humble opinion, and best of fortunes to you.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:41 - ID#219363)
Taking an Account of the Week's Highlights
SAN FRANCISCO -- With the market awaiting some sign of life from the Federal Reserve next Tuesday, Wall Street was relatively quiet last week -- at least by the obscene standards so recently set. Sure there was a big swing up on Wednesday after comments by Alan Greenspan. And sure, there was the big swing down blamed on the troubles at Long Term Capital ( mis ) Management. But most of the news was out of the headlines last week -- and that's where the reporters of were finding it.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 01:50 - ID#31868)
Nickodemus, Namaste'
if I could teach the planet to grasp what you have said...Bless you and yours...the bottom of MY heart is infinite and all that is you and yours will never be slaked for want of thirst of all that is truly valued in life...thanks for being you...gulps and puffs to ya...uh huh...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:04 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re primitive art
Well I've been learning to use the scsi scanner and have managed to upload a gif pic of a poloroid pic of my silver Irish deer which stands 3 inches tall. It is my own design, stylistically primitive but not a copy. You will see that the horns are lyre like with prongs turned inward, the opposite of ancient Celtic design. I didn't like the original finsish so am going to polish it down with steel wire brush to a coarse matte. That is IF I uploaded it right and it comes through to the newsgroup. There isn't enough detail to see that I didn't put eyes, but did give it gender, to which you may attribute African influence.

No I don't think this is super off topic. ( 8-^* ) After all it is INVESTMENT casting we've been talking about! ( 8-^ ) )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:12 - ID#237299)
@greenspan, and his guarantee of *unlimited liquidity"
I also think things are going to go to sh*t pretty soon, and am going to
put my money where my mouth is buy buying some puts on monday. But I am nagged by something that Greenspan once said. He was commenting that they realized that the biggest mistake that they made back in the 20s was by not providing enough liquidity to the market. He said that that mistake would never happen again, and if a similar crash were to occur the fed was willing to inject *unlimited* amounts of liquidity to stabilize things.

So, if this is their stance, and things started to unravel, and the threat was compounded by currency fleeing to gold or other assets ( that they couldn't print ) , what's to prevent them from holding deep after hours meetings on the night of a severe drop, offering guarantees to the big boys to enable them to engineer huge opening bell buy-backs- thus propping up the market.

Many thought this is exactly what happened a couple months ago.

makes me nervous, that they can synthetically hold thigs up as long as they want. Still going to buy those puts though.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:15 - ID#271404)
Eldorado --- You say "All paper will be aflame. Don't matter if it is imprinted with 'gold'."
I say that says alot. Of all expressed today on this forum, your statement was strikingly impacting. You expressed the essence of what I know is true, simply, and very powerfully.
Question is timing. Rome took centuries to go.
Bot my first silver in 1972 for $4.?? Thot that move was a sure fire immediate money maker! Sold my last piece of speculative real estate in 1975! Thot then an collapse was imminent. Made some money but missed the mania that followed. Thot in 1980-81 stocks doomed to extinction. Missed the huge equity bull market. Not only missed out. I was shorting the S&P!
Today my thinking in a sense is still polarized. I see the proliferation of world-wide, round the clock, flutuating financial and commodity markets. I see huge speculative opportunities for those "surfing" these markets, profitably. Challenging, indeed.
Preserving one's speculative winnings, though, equally challenging.
"All paper will be aflame".

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:47 - ID#386245)
Gagnrad. I like the deer. Looks like a good place for gold bears to sit.

KIP--please let me know when you invest in something, so I can do the opposite ( ( :- ) )

I see you guys let the gold bear out of its cave last night after I went to bed. Don't any of you guys own a bear gun?? Someone please shoot the b*stard. Actually it is now quite predictable as to when the gold bust team will emerge. Key points--like end of the week when gold is over the 200 day m.a..They must be pouring a powerful lot of moolah down the toilet ( short gold ) . These guys are running out of time. There is a gold bull sniffing and snorting and ready for a run. I can feel it in my gizzard!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:50 - ID#210420)

VP at SSB gave me the impression that many more massively in debt hedge funds are about to go under. I met with him last week when he flew done to Fla to give a speech to the top fee producers at Solomon SB. In hindsight I think he was aware of the LTCM bailout negotiations ( he had worked with Mr M @ Solomon prior to "the bond deal" ) ...he stated that it had been a nice right up since 1982 but it could get ugly on the way down if anyone yells "FIRE" and bolts for the exits......I wonder if he knew the whole LTCM story from Mr M or just suspected it...He did say that several funds were underwater...TO BIG TO FAIL?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:56 - ID#35757)
RE: GOLEM #43349
We see how money is created out of thin air. Can it also evaporate? Didn't someone recently post an explanation how money can disappear? I would like to read that again, or a reference. How far back can you go into Kitco postings?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 02:58 - ID#271404)
Hedge funds, the culprits???
Anyone long metals is so only because somebody sold. Those shorting are sellers. Blaming, criticizing the sellers is non-productive.
The "funds" this, the "funds" that. Repeated incessantly on this forum. What "funds"? Identify them. Not that it matters. Smacks to me "a good Indian is a dead Indian". "Jews" are the problem, and so on. Sellers provide liquidity. If there were few, you and I would be paying a high, high price for our metals. Thank-you sellers.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:15 - ID#386245)
Thanks to Bill Buckler

Aussie dollar POG breathing fresh untainted air.
US dollar POG still in the sewer, but poking its nose out for a breather.

A year or two from now we will be sipping margaritas at the Kitco squillionaires convention. Any suggestions as to venue??

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:17 - ID#210420)
gold should breakout as the lenders cont. to cover LTCM

massive short position...many may already be frontrunning for their own account...pushing gold even higher.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:27 - ID#413109)
GO TO GO.....
But think before you start!

Homo-sapien, we believe, has advanced in the many millenia
he has walked this planet, but has he?

His mind is capable of all kinds of creations, he's even starting
to fiddle with genes.
He has developed everything from fire and the wheel, to highly
modern technology- even gone as far as the moon. "Who'd have thunk it".

BUT when it came to emotional development, something went very wrong,
and this specie did not develop at all.

Look at modern society, with the creation of acceptable pieces of paper this
specie has done wonders.
It goes so far that ther are battles and wars over this worthless paper-"money", and for
what? Where do you think it will lead?
Where it all started, is that where?

"La Ronde"- a complete circle?

Where once there was gold, which shackled the powers that be to behave in a restricted manner,
there now are no restrictions. Borrow, print, create without limits-----oh really?

Must natural forces step in once again, to right the wrongs, that this specie keeps repeating over and
over? Will the pendulum swing once again in the opposite direction, or will things

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:35 - ID#271404)
@mole --- 9/25 -- 02:07 Stocks vs Futures
PM investing. Futures. Hands down, lowest transaction costs ( commissions & bid/ask spreads ) . If margin risk is a perceived objection, increase your equity. Many brokers permit your equity be U.S. T-Bills. Owning metals pledging a short term interest bearing government security. Nirvana!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:38 - ID#413109)
Is the END

"La Ronde"- a complete circle?

Where once there was gold, which shackled the powers that be to behave in a restricted manner
there now are no restrictions. Borrow, print, create without limits-----oh really?

Must natural forces step in once again, to right the wrongs, that this specie keeps repeating over and
over? Will the pendulum swing once again in the opposite direction, or will ___things be different this time?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:42 - ID#31868)
The opportunity which arrives...can we not meet together the chill that is our differences...
I know that I feel cold which is not of my making...but within the freeze that is a life...I would shave my entire body to weave a garment to help provide you with the warmth that you need...crave and must have to survive...not to have the flame ignited in a childs eyes...a puppy...a grandmother and father...for me...means to completely fail...

as men we be failure to the women we seek to please and hold close to cherish...and who would we be...if we do not create as best we can...a world in which their babies can not flourish...quite true is that theythe Ladiesworldwidehave two lipswe need to grow larger ears to hear them

Who everwhere ever you are and beI will make a Slinky blush as I bend over backwards to understand you

My home is attempting to provide the comfort your GRAND Parents dreamed for youNamaste and or Dig it!!! To Gregg and his LadyI learn each and every day from the likes of them

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:52 - ID#31868)
REIFY, Namaste'...gulps and puffs to you and your Lady...
Incremental is a verb passing through me having met you and the LadyYUP! Thought I was getting fat until I took 545lbs off the bench the other daywhen I went out of the gym I saw a child pulling up their socks and realized I was a weakling

You Sir make Gold realize how jealous it is to have a heart like yours

(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:54 - ID#219363)
Precious Metals
One last comment before bed - to those dreamy little boys who read about pirates and hobbits and elves and dragons and who have since grown up to be big boys who don't think so much about such things, I offer this: This is the one time, probably in your entire lives, that you can indeed have a treasure chest full of gold, silver, etc. In all your life - if you have ever thought of accumulating metal, this is likely to be your only chance. I don't think it'll ever be this in-expensive again, and if it is, it'll be when I'm so old that I don't care anymore. Invest in a heritage for your family, invest in something solid, accumulate some precious metals and save them away for a rainy day. Not every investment in your life has to "make money", that's strictly a 80's and 90's phenomenon - some investments are in security, the security of metal, the value that can't be taken away except by physical means. It's like a non-interest bearing savings account that'll last you through the toughest winter, and everyone owes it to their family to have at least a small amount of metal on-hand in case of an emergency. This is the time to buy, we may never again have so many paper gains, soaring dollars, with which to buy such in-expensive metals.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 03:59 - ID#31868)
ENVY, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya...
Your words are enough to make each and every one of us rich...thanks ain't somethin yuz can measure...Peace...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 05:07 - ID#252391)
Hecla Mines (HL) IMHO
Oak you asked for thoughts on HL. I was doing a little math on it today, myself - actually wrote the following for the Yahoo board. Anybody else's thought would be welcome.

Hecla Mines
Sep 25 1998
10:34PM EDT

Based on 6mos results extrapolated for 12 months, HL will
do 75 million in gold and silver revenues. Their silver
production is increasing while gold seems to have tappered
off but is projected at 180koz with silver at 7 million oz

Fiqure a 20% increase in gold and silver revenues ( silver
going from the first 6 mos'. $5.50 to $6.75 per oz sustained
for a year and gold to $350 ) . Revenues would increase
about 15 million devided by 55 million shares outstanding
and you have 24 cents +/-per share, times 30 would give
you a $7.50 -$11 dollar stock. EACH additional dollar rise
in silver coupled with a $10 rise in gold would produce an
additional 10 cents profit, plus or minus - or another $2-$3
in stock valuation..

So at $8 silver and $360-$370 gold you'd have a $10-$13
dollar stock, seems to me.

Not really grea,t but these stocks aren't like utilities where
you fiqure the earnings at prospective metal levels and really
expect the stock to arrive there on time. The mining stocks
are really more like internet trading vehicles that get way
over valued and under valued. I frankly think the money
flow into these miing stocks on a move to $8 silver and
$365 gold would jump HL, for example, to $15 at least.
Above that I would fiqure it was overvalued and look for a
technical condition to trigger a sale.

Based on what I see having happened even as recently as
today, these metals are going to be prone to volitile spikes
and down drafts. I think the stocks got ahead of the metals
themselves, this week. I don't expect too big of a decline in
the metals next week dispite the weak close, Friday the
25th. The draw down in COMEX stocks and the seeming
increase in the gold lease rate and possible reluctance of
Central Banks to roll over loans will provide a fundlemental
foundation to a technically driven short term dip.

HL looks good in the low 4s but watch the metal price for a
buy trigger with a close above $5.17 or a move above
$5.25 following a lower opening on Monday.

Again, from my perspective and in my humbled opinion, HL
appears to be a leader for the initial stages of a silver rally.

Postsript: I've been thinking about the COMEX Silver STocks - 72 million oz - sufficent to cover less than 1/5 th of the Silver futures open interest. About 4 months worth of the annual deficit of supply vs demand if you believe the figures. The value of that silver is equal to the change in capitalization of Coca Cola when it moves a 1/4 point.

Something is out of whack here. I have some silver stocks, not as much as I will have if we go over $5.25 as noted above. I personnaly think KIP is right that the best way to play silver is throgh the futures market. The low prices for silver the last ten years have left these companies in near financial shambles with all types of complex convoluted financing. Its hard, expensive and sometimes a mistake to try and mine silver. Speculative interest is low.

The market has been controlled by shorts enjoying the benefits of the lease trade. If we don't sink into a financial meltdown world wide the supply demand imbalance if true should compett the price of silver to $8 with in 18 months, probably less and probably higher.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 06:01 - ID#153102)
@The Right Stuff
Weiser says ( he fears that ) governments can indefinitely fool Mother Nature, but Mozel says gravity and usury eventually prevails. None of the chaos in the fiscal world is happening because somebody is willing it. The participants are fighting it. It's the long working out of consequences from principles. For example, the hedge funds did not just appear. They appeared as a necessary feature of the floating exchange currency system. Without some party onto which to offload the risk, some party to function as the "connecting rods" for the "global ( read greenback, good as gold, fiat credit based ) economy", how could the system work ? How could future payment, settlement, be assured to the export/import and international banks ? The hedge funds serve governments, especially USG; they are unofficial "policy instruments", in fact, and that is why government stepped up so readily to bail out Merriweather's fund.

The reason it has taken so long is the willingness of people to be deceived, their lack, as Cherokee put it, of an instinct for preservation based on belief in their personal knowledge and perceptions. It is drilled out of them. It is drilled into them to accept the pronouncements of authority and not to think for themselves. A spell is cast. There is more than a mania, more than a bubble supporting Wall Street. Manias and bubbles are spontaneous. What we are in the midst of is planned, organized, and systematic.

Reify says Man has been on the Moon. I don't believe it. To tell the truth, I just never thought about it until challenged to do so. I have now thought about the facts, the physical laws of nature. I agree that anybody with a high school knowledge of science should see through the fraud. The physical evidence from photos is merely additive, but not necessary for a conclusion. Why are scientists quiet about the NASA Moon Landing Fraud ? It has got to qualify as one of the most stupendous feats of political magic of all time. How perfectly fitting for our time that The Right Stuff turns out to be the willingness and ability to participate in the production and coverup of fraud.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 06:50 - ID#119358)
As I recall ( through the haze ) , a long time ago we agreed that gold would touch $250.-$265....probably on a spike. This was about the time that the hedge funds, et al. were taking their position.
Now, much molar hydrochloric acid has run under the Bridge to the 21st century. ( remember Billdo Cliton's bridge? ) In view of ever increasing demand for the physical, economic and political asteroids daily impacting the surface of our planet and the euro's debut, I think we have, at a minimum, gold stabilized in the $300. range.
Any move back to the $275-$280 range, should be considered an excellent opportunity to my honest opinion. The scale has shifted, the increased mass residing in the "down" side must be balanced with an ever increasing "up" side. salud! un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:02 - ID#347447)
mozel - your comments re moon landing -
you forgot to add the ( ;- )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:04 - ID#347447)
Studio R
Any move back to 275 should be cause for worry that the "deflationists" are right.

Get Real...Get Oil too.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:19 - ID#119358)
@Mike O'Sheller..........
Re deflation.......I exist in a third world state......the banks here are about to go under from the weight of non-performing ag and energy is the entire local economy. OK is no different than Mexico, except we have higher taxes. The strong dollar policy has run its ravishing course, like a RABID STRIPED-ARSE TWO-TON that it is headed toward DC and will be killed.

Greenie y Rubix must inflate commods with a weaker dollar. Commods are headed up to pay loans. These god-damn bankers wanted it all...and now they have it. Greenie y Rubix are just Deluxe Bankers who serve well their Wall Street Brothers.

Get Gold y're sho' right on dat one, you're smart. salud!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:25 - ID#347447)
The Nature of Nature
Nature, she ees a funny theeng. Nature and Man are inextricably bound up in one another. The Intelligent Faculties in Man are the same Intelligent Faculties that govern Nature. Reason, Justice, Perception, Will...all under the saturating umbrella of Consciousness. Without ANY ONE of those factors, "God" would be no god at all. What is greater? The being? Or the faculties which make the being great? Ultimately, of course, by the presence of the aforementioned faculties, Man and Nature function together. Man himself is a microcosmic Universe of both physical systems, every one of which is duplicated in Nature, ( and viceversa ) and an Intelligent "spirit" or Self. Just as the intelligence in Nature is clearly evident. The synergy between Man and Nature is very mysterious, and it would not be wise to go into that origin here. My point is to say that even in a true, 100 percent "gold standard" nature-physical universe-law-based monetary system, as objective as possible, there would be room for many variables that are related to the feelings and desires of humanity. And this is ok. While I am a proponent of a true gold standard and free banking, I recognize that NO system, no matter how theoretically objective, is totally "stable." Price changes in free markets is not only inevitable, they ARE what make a market. Human choice IS "the market." Aberration of markets must be diagnosed in relative terms, inasmuch as human action is the prime determinant of market structures under any system. It is just that some actions are more conducive to prosperity, morality, and stability, than others. But even in the most objective, nature-based system, there will be lots of room for human perception and will to keep things fluctuating at a merry pace. There is no perfect system...only some are more objective and reliable than others to obtain certain results. We must always be conscious of the fact that our duty is to rationally decide WHAT RESULTS we want as a civilization...and then discover the BEST way to obtain them. When we are "perfect," we may not need money. Until then, Gold is the most objective, universal currency the developed, historically civilized world has known. And gold has its own character as money. It would do well for citizens to be educated about that nature for future reference, as we are heading into a potentially enlightening era. Or another dark age.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:31 - ID#347447)
Studio R
Ay Bendito pobrecito! I know what you're going thru there. Your view of the turnaround for commods seems in line with my calculations that the oil bull will emerge after the early part of '99. January/February may be the final weakness in oil, ( when Saturn makes its final opposition with NYSE Neptune and then moves off ) ---OR the kickoff of the bull...but by Spring the situation will be reversing. Hang in there buddy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:33 - ID#119358)
@darkly aging..........
Mike, I must now enter the natural universe of vibrating spruce, maple and steel....surely, that is where I will truly find my enlightenment. Iamit and Itisme...thanks, man....I needed dat.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:37 - ID#384350)
Boardreader - Fractional Reserve Banking and Interest
If there is no interest paid on deposits, most people would not use the banking sector and keep their coins elsewhere. So Interest ( usury ) is an integral part of fractional reserve banking.

Sorry my post last night wasn't that well formulated. After posting it I realised I was a bit tired and went to bed.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:45 - ID#411440)
@ jims: you are using a very high multiple in your valuations
of Hecla. I use 10X estimated net profit, and 6X estimated cash flow
for my valuations. The long term average for P/E ratios for the
DOW is 13X ( 8X during recessions ) I like to be conservative in my
estimations. It can be less painful that way!

Have you looked at FSR ( First Silver Reserve ) on the VSE? Their
costs of production for straight silver are under $US2.60 per oz, with
production of over 2.7 million oz per year. Issued sh = 37 million
Supply of shares is fairly inelastic as 27 million of these sh are
held tightly by the CEO. They are in the middle of doubling prod'n.

Reserves are in excess of 60 million oz. It is the most highly
leveraged silver stock that I know, and the lowest cost. You might
also consider TVX as a silver play.

Moore Research Center estimates silver passing $6 in late Dec and
reaching $8.50 by next April. Their accuracy so far has been uncanny.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:48 - ID#28994)

Wada yu mean man never been to moon.
Been there myself.
Yep.. prospecting for gold.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 07:58 - ID#254112)
I don't forward the following article to anger JTF or other Americans who want to line up behind their pseudo"leaders" during critical times.
I think Americans have to wake up to the hard truth that they don't have true leaders. They are ruled by a ruthless oligarchy, which is ruthless not only to Americans but to the entire world.
So far my comment to the following article, which I consider still not critical enough in certain points:

Truth in Media's GLOBAL WATCH Bulletin 98/9-5 26-Sep-98

What's a Few Billion Dollars Here, A Billion There...


SYDNEY, Australia - Not so long ago, investment analysts with Ph. D.
degrees used to be flattered by a mere prospect of being interviewed by the
Long-Term Capital Management L.P. hedge fund. And why not. This
Greenwich, CT, investment firm employed several Nobel laureates, giving it
"star power," along with an aura of respectability and infallibility. In
1995, LTCP returned 43% to its investors, after fees. This was followed by
41% and 17% returns respectively in 1996 and 1997, according to a Sept. 24
Wall Street Journal report. No wonder so many of LTCP founder's, John
Meriwether's fair weather friends had their high net worth clients invest
in his firm ( e.g., Merrill Lynch, Republic Banc... ) .

Those days are gone. Earlier this month, Meriwether informed its investors
that the merry times are over. The fund was down 44% in August, and 52%
for the year, to $2.3 billion in capital. But considering its highly
leveraged investments ( at one point this year, the value of its investments
topped $100 billion ) , a failure of such a high-profile Wall Street
high-flyer could spook other investors into a selling spree.

Enter "Greenscam's" ( Alan Greenspan, the Fed's chairman ) Meriwether
bailout. The Federal Reserve is not expected to use its ( read U.S.
taxpayers' money ) to bail out this Wall Street blue chip gambling
operation, according to a Financial Times Sept. 24 article. But the Fed
has used its clout to try to engineer a $4 billion private bailout with
loans of $250 million by big name Wall Street investment banks, such as
Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, Goldman, Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter,
Deutsche Bank, UBS, etc.

Meanwhile, stockmarket gamblers seeking a silver lining on a stormy Wall
Street's horizon were buoyed by the Fed chairman's hint about a possibility
of lower interest rates pushing the Dow up 257 points on Sept. 23.
Greenspan said that the global crisis had "infected" the U.S. financial
markets and is threatening the growth of the American economy.

The second statement is hogwash. As the regular TiM readers know very well
from examples which we have provided over the years, the Wall Street casino
is driven by cashflows, not the economic performances of the companies it
trades. It is a "Greenscam" myth, therefore, that a drop in equities will
slow down the American economy. By perpetuating this myth, the Fed
chairman is showing us where his real loyalties lie - on Wall Street, not
Main Street, as he would have us believe.

The Russian economy, for example, we are told by the establishment media
has been devastated by the flight of foreign capital. Actually, this
really means mostly Moscow. Banks and other enterprises in the Russian
capital had received about 80% of all foreign investments, according to a
senior Russian diplomat in Europe with whom we discussed the situation this
week. As a result, smaller cities in remote areas which invested in its
industrial base, rather than in the stockmarket, and which had never
depended on foreign capital, are now much better off than Moscow. Another
lesson learned about the pitfalls of globalization.

True enough, the U.S. economy could get a boost from a drop in interest
rates. But this may also fuel inflation, which has been Greenspan's main
economic bogey for years. At a time of slowing demand from overseas
buyers, especially those from Asia, a rise in inflation would hardly be
cheery news for America's Main Street. As anyone living in New York City,
for example, already knows, low inflation is another government myth. The
cost of living there has soared during the boom years of the "bull" market.
Lowering interest rates could only make it worse.

So why does Greenspan seem about to abandon his anti-inflation fight?
Because stockmarket would be the only clear winner from lowering of
interest rates, as investment cashflows would likely reverse themselves out
of the government bonds back to the equity markets. In short, it's another
Main Street sellout, and a Wall Street bailout.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's financial perversions, such as stock buybacks,
meant that about $660 billion was effectively taken out of the economy
during the 1990s, $455 billion in the last three years alone - without
creating a single new product or a job. If Greenspan and Congress really
want to give our economy, a boost, they could start by outlawing such
scams. Or else the Fed chairman may be remembered as a mere "Greenscam."
Bob Djurdjevic
Phoenix, Arizona

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:00 - ID#384350)
Aurator - Gold Chronology
Thanks for the link. It shows that gold coin was made illegal by US in 1933, but then said the US Dollar was again convertible to Gold at $35.

But, Gold was no longer circulated as coin. This new convertibility was IMO a means of transfering the confiscated gold out of the US and into the International Bankers hands in Europe. Louis McFadden talked about this.

Again, according to that tour guide, Gold coin circulated as currency in Western Australia up to the 1930's, when I suppose some falsified fiat currency was introduced. I'm sure that WA didn't stop mining gold, nor stop sending it to England.
By the way I picked up a 80% Silver coin used around the 1940's in Europe. Maybe you ( or others ) can help with the translation of the abbreviated Latin.

It reads: ( Front side ) R*IMP*HU*BO*REG* M*THERESIA*D*G
then under portrait there is in small Capital letters: S*F*

( Flip Side ) ARCHID*AVST*DUX* BURG*CO*TYR*1780*
After 1780* there is a cross symbol ressembling an X possibly of 2 torches.

Also the date says 1780 but the coin dealer told me it was a coin that circulated around the end of WWII so that people would have some sort of currency for barter/trade.

Also, weren't the British Royal Family called Coburg ( sp? ) until they changed their name to Windsor during WWI because Coburg sounded too German?


Bully Beef
(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:01 - ID#259282)
There are one hundred million stock experts in theUSA and Can. and they are all waiting for the
stock market to bottom so they can buy back in. Then I think they will jump in and out quick for profit changing the market forever. It will become "sell the humps".All that coverage of that hedge fund and the market went up? "sell the humps". Go gold!

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:05 - ID#384350)
Alberich - Greenspan
Damn Right! Greenspan works for the International Bankers ( The FED ) not for the US Govt, nor its people.

Bully Beef
(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:06 - ID#259282)
The earth is flat like a pancake.My Grandad said the Moon landing was a hoax.
He was 98 when he died in '86. He went from horse and buggy to flight to the moon. Weird. Goodday!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:12 - ID#254112)
Mozel, Mozel, where is your spirit going?
There is the natural phenomenon of meteorites. These objects have been speeded up by some force on another planet and broke through the gravity border of the plannet from where they originate and after that, randomly, happened to get into the graphity field of the earth and landed on the earth.
This is not a fairy tale. This is happening in nature. I do not argue here weather a man walked on the moon or not, I argue only that it is principally possible and happening all the time that objects from one plannet are throuwn out of the reach of the gravity field of this plannet and either become little plannets themselves or become attracted by the gravity field of another planet.
This naturally occuring phenomenon can principally be copied by humans so humans can in a cotrolled way launche objects and reach other planets.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:38 - ID#37463)
Thanks to all
Thanks to all for your response to my question last evening as to where I should put $2,500 at this time for safety and appreciation. I received a number of great responses from the group. Now I must choose my own poison. Oh for a crystal ball.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 08:59 - ID#411440)
@ ALBERICH: re your GREENSCAM article. The drop in interest
rates can be viewed as a bailout of Wall St. It can also be viewed
as capitulation to deflationary fears. The over financialization
of the Western world has been siphoning money ( wealth ) away from
real job creation and industrial production for years. This has
reached the point now where there is insufficient wealth left in
the hands of the ordinary worker/consumer to operate a demand based
consumer market. Prices fall for real assets, as prices rise for
paper assets. Dropping interest rates is actually a dropping of
prices in the paper asset world. Physical assets are now going to
be fallowed to rise, for to allow the old system to run even a few
more weeks is to risk a deflationary spiral. We have been converting
real assets to paper, and driving their values below their cost of
production. It had to stop. Now it has. They will inflate, and
money will flow back into the prices of assets from which it has been
stolen by a totally amoral financial system. IMHO

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:18 - ID#275194)
jims & rhody; HL is my way of playing the BOTTOM of the PM market.
They have some of the lowest production costs for Gold in the industry. I only wish they produced more. Their Silver production is excellent.
They have earned money in both the first and second quarter of this year, even at these depressed metal prices. With the physical ( Gold ) that I bought in late August and the shares in Hecla ( self directed IRA, and individual account ) I'm confident that HL will be positioned correctly even if gold or silver moves by itself.
Can you tell from this post that I like Hecla?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:18 - ID#347447)
I grow a bit weary of ministers preaching to the choir. If you have any concerns that "Americans" are not aware of their paucity of statesmanship and the dismal quality of their leaders, their intellectual life, and their superficial understanding of human events, then why don't you go out on a streetcorner where this message would be most effective in awakening your fellow man. Making such comments at Kitco strikes me as the height of absurdity, inasmuch as this is one of the most obvious places where NO "leader" is allowed a shred of dignity for more than 30 seconds, if that, no matter WHAT country he or she represents. Besides, Kitco, for all its foodfights and backbiting holds a hefty compliment of sharp minds and wits. Intelligent, informed people past whom little gets by. I don't know from whence you post, but I assume that if it is a "civilized " nation, your national standard of living, thinking, and philosophizing is not noticeably different than what obtains in America. Why don't you go among your "own" with your message? And what have you been doing to better the situation re enlightening your fellow man?
I really don't understand this singling out of America for trashing. Envy, perhaps? It may be an imperfect mess, sure, but I don't see any other nation or society, currently, that makes me think "Wow, what an enlightened place to live, let me move there." These comments are best reserved for the human condition as a whole, and no nation in particular. For it is quite plain that such criticism applies to all these days.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:23 - ID#119358)
@Yea, the frothing TWO TON MONKEETO..........
ate all the grains y livestock and drank all the he's goin'a climb the World Trade Center and take a CRAP like you ain't EVER smelled or seen before. manOmanOman.

Alda' Greenbax and Robber Rubix ain't gonna' hang 'round and clean up the crap either....they've got all they need now..they be gonners. uhHuH


Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:33 - ID#347447)
With your permission, you are wrong. Capital has been flowing more readily and fully than EVER into production around the world. Unfortunately, technology and the equalization of wage/service rates via communications and location technologies have lowered the value of labor by bringing down the standards of the wealthy nations' workers, and raising them for the so-called third world. The market value of traditional jobs has the open market itself. People must decide every moment what is of value, in relation to what technology can do instead of people. The problem that precedes any major depression or deflation is precisely that production ( including huge amounts of unneeded, superfluous goods and services, and enormous malinvestment ) rises to such a capacity that the inevitable saturation of markets and cutback in demand creates a huge surplus overhang that must be liquidated only at lower and lower prices until the market is cleared. This is nature's attempt to return to reality. The TRUE path of growth and prosperity is for the monetary unit to INCREASE in purchase power over time, while prices continue to fall due to improvements in technology and skill. Lowered wages are made up in increased purchase power. This can only happen on a true and direct gold standard. Instead, with fiat money, we have the worst of both worlds. Deflation and Depression ( so-called ) are curatives. It is true that to the degree that they are staved off, the condition leading to collapse only gets worse. The people of the world are facing an enormous decision. They must decide what are the necessities and prerequisites for a balanced, progressive, healthy civilization where the areas of food, clothing, shelter, education and health are fully developed and supported by free investment by citizens as market choices. All of the ugly catastrophes of life that come at the hands of human beings are caused by a misplaced sense of priorities, or a desperate need for the simple basics. There is too much malinvestment in junk in this world and an enormous amount of waste in frivolity and indulgence. Does half the world need $100 sneakers while the other half goes shoeless?
But these are Human choices. And choices cannot be dictated...they are what they are.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:40 - ID#411440)
@ kapex: with what is coming, any pm stock will do well.
Any equity with pm in its name will do well. Hecla is OK. I think
FSR is even more leveraged re silver. On Friday, few pm stocks
did well, but TVX and PDG rose with ABX. The market is telling us
its preferences. One does not fight the market, even when logic
goes out the window. FSR is better as a silver play than Hecla,
because its costs are lower, but Hecla may perform better because the
market knows and likes it. Each to his or her own.

I hope to get a dividend out of FSR, because the CEO owns 67% of the
shares. So the CEO can't sell his shares to take advantage of the
silver spike without trashing the market for the shares generally.
He does have effective control of the dividend policy however.
I think he will cash out by a generous dividend policy. Nothing
else makes sense.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:40 - ID#347447)
didn't mean to imply that your post was "wrong" - sorry for the choice of word - just the first part about production & labor. ( Not that it was wrong, but I wanted to supply a context for your otherwise wise comments - I agree with you that there is no end in sight to the malappropriation of capital - by either markets or manipulators )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:41 - ID#119358)
@I sure hope ol' tOlerant1....................
don't come on the air this mornin'-evenin' with all that love crap....maybe he got'a'hold of a bad fig newton yesderdee? hmmmmmmmmmm.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:49 - ID#190411)
Someone from the IMF
paid t1's dog's vet bill, that's why he's mushy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:49 - ID#411440)
@ Mike Sheller: I agree with you too. The flat currency system
has led to excess capacity in industrial production through excessive
easy credit. This excess capacity ultimately leads to a collapse in
commodity prices. The excesses in paper still lead to deflation in

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:53 - ID#119358)
@ERLE.O...............then tell me WHY......
didn't he just come right out and say that he really does DIG Michelle Camdessus? Huh???? evidently, mom was right.....every tolerant has his price. ohmy...sadsosad. ;^ ) ~

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:53 - ID#384350)
mozel - Man on the Moon
I think I heard the rumour that the moon-landing was a staged fictitious event back in the late 70's, so I guess it has always been in the back of my mind.

Then there is that REM song that goes, "If you BELIEVE they put a man on the moon....."

The US was in full war-phase expansion 50 years after WWI. Viet Nam, Cold War, War on Poverty, and the Race to the Moon.

Every now and then you have to throw the dog a bone to justify the massive spending, so you stage the event of a moon landing showing the commies that the US has claimed the moon with its war flag, the stars & stripes.

I have seen the capsule of Appollo 9 or something, and I seriously doubt the technology existed in the 60's to land a spaceship on the moon without it crashing and burning, let alone for it to take off again.

Just more War Spending to spur the economy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 09:59 - ID#119358)
@Well then, NASA and John Glenn can all........
just kiss my ever-lovin' moon. yea. Betcha' John Huston directed the cinematography...he did all the great John Wayne movies.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:00 - ID#341189)
NYTimes this morning is reporting that LTC holds bets worth 1.2 Trillion

he speculative investment fund rescued by a consortium of Wall
Street banks this week made complex bets on international financial
markets with a total value drastically higher than previously estimated,
financiers who studied its books said Friday.

They said the fund, Long-Term Capital Management, used its $2.2 billion
in capital from investors as collateral to buy $125 billion in securities, and
then used those securities as collateral to enter into exotic financial
transactions worth $1.25 trillion.

Long-Term Capital's portfolio had been previously estimated at $90

Using such a small amount of money to gamble on transactions worth far
more is extraordinary even in Long-Term Capital's risky world of hedge
funds, the largely unregulated pools of investment funds now receiving
increased Government scrutiny. How and why bankers who dealt with
Long-Term Capital allowed it to make such astonishing bets remains
unclear. [News analysis, page B1.]

The financiers who studied Long-Term Capital's books said the hedge
fund had sold some positions since the end of August, reducing the total
size of its holdings. Before it was taken over by the consortium of banks
and brokerage houses Wednesday, Long-Term Capital also used up
much of its capital base to pay loans. Those people said the hedge fund's
capital base had shrunk to $600 million and its securities holdings to
about $100 billion before the creditors took control of the fund with a
$3.5 billion bailout package.

But the look at the accounting books of Long-Term Capital at the end of
August provides a glimpse into its operating style.

It also shows the extent to which the hedge fund's backers, including
many of the leading Wall Street investment banks, allowed the fund's star
manager, John W. Meriwether, to amass such an enormous speculative

In part because of Long-Term's Capital huge exposure to financial
markets, and worries that a collapse could destabilize financial markets
around the world, banks that did business with the fund elected to arrange
a bailout and assume control of it rather than let the fund fail.

Some Wall Street executives said the total quantity of securities held by
Long-Term Capital would have been difficult to sell. That is especially
true since the securities were used as collateral for the $1.25 trillion in
derivatives and forward contracts, in many cases bets on the direction of
interest rates and bond prices.

The fact that Long-Term Capital took huge risks through derivatives and
forward contracts does not mean that its collapse would have resulted in
losses equivalent to their total value. But the sheer size of the fund's bets
made them difficult to unravel,without unsettling the markets that
Meriwhether gambled in. Especially when the market is moving against
the trades, as they were in Long-Term Capital's case, selling its
derivatives and futures contracts might have proven prohibitively costly
for the banks that had money at stake.

To offer a comparison, when the venerable British investment bank
Barings P.L.C. collapsed three years ago, a rogue trader in its ranks had
gambled on changes in prices of Japanese Government bonds and the
direction of Japanese interest rates through financial instruments worth$30
billion. When the bonds and interest rates moved in the other direction of
the bets Barings had made and those contracts tumbled in value,
Baringsfaced losses of $1 billion and collapsed.

Long-Term Capital's total exposure to financial market bets was about 40
times that of Barings and it did not have much more capital than Barings

In a further sign of the Government's concern over how Long-Term
Capital's near-collapse happened, Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin
announced late Friday that United States agencies responsible for
supervising financial markets would conduct a study on hedge funds and
their relationships with creditors.

In a statement issued after markets had closed, Rubin said the Treasury
Department had been closely following developments related to
Long-Term Capital. Congressional Republicans also announced they
would hold hearings exploring all aspects of the hedge fund industry,
including regulation and supervision.

In comments earlier Friday, Rubin disputed the idea that hedge funds
should be regulated like banks and put under some form of Government
control. "I don't think it is a question of reining people in," Rubin told
reporters in Washington. But he said Long-Term Capital's situation had
raised some concerns.

"There are questions about disclosure and other issues, and my guess is
there will be a lot of discussion and debate about that," Rubin said.

The fallout from Long-Term Capital's near collapse extended to Europe,
with Dresdner Bank A.G. of Germany and Crdit Suisse Group of
Switzerland detailing losses from investment firm, which is based in
Greenwich, Conn.

But neither had exposure comparable to UBS A.G., Europe's largest
bank, which took a $689 million charge against third-quarter earnings to
write down its stake in the hedge fund, an adjustment that will probably
cause the bank to post a loss for the quarter.

Some European markets were also off sharply. United States stock
markets fell in early trading but recovered to post a solid gain. Investors
were nervously watching developments to determine whether other big
players in the universe of 3,000 hedge funds, many of which had bond
market positions not unlike those of Long-Term Capital, would face
pressure from banks to sell securities to pay off margin loans, potentially
weakening the already-fragile world bond market.

Peter Bakstansky, a spokesman for the New York Federal Reserve,
which arranged the private-sector rescue of Long-Term Capital, was
cautious when asked if there might be other hedge funds that were at risk
or if the bailout of Long-Term Capital had succeeded. But he indicated
that initial signs were good. "The firm is operating," he said, "and the
market reaction at this point seems to be reasonable."

The New York Fed pulled together the consortium of private banks and
brokerage houses early this week to rescue Long-Term Capital. Fed
officials said they feared that a sudden liquidation of the hedge fund's
holdings might send shock waves through the world financial system.

But the Fed's quick action to save the hedge fund from collapse has
raised other questions. Some Wall Street bankers say privately that they
felt strong-armed by the Government into putting up the $3.5 billion for
the bailout. Bakstansky, the spokesman for the New York Fed, denies
this, saying some banks chose not to participate in the bailout and that the
Fed had no way of forcing them to partake.

But perhaps the main question raised early on in the takeover of
Long-Term Capital was how so many well-regulated and risk-conscious
banks could have leant so much money to a single speculative investor,
albeit one with a stellar track record for producing outsized return in
recent years.

Even if hedge funds escape direct regulation as a result of the Long-Term
Capital bailout, regulators seem certain to scrutinize the links between
banks and hedge funds. Banks provide much of the capital the hedge
funds need to take highly leveraged positions in stock, bond and currency

The Financial Services Authority of Britain has ordered 55 banks and
other financial institutions to provide information on their exposure to
Long-Term Capital and to other hedge funds. Swiss bank regulators
asked UBS for details about its involvement in Long-Term Capital.

The consortium of financial institutions participating in the rescue
announced Friday that the duration of their recapitalization was three
years, suggesting that they expected a slow resolution of the firm's trading

An oversight committee is being formed at the direction of the consortium
to include representatives of Goldman, Sachs; Merrill Lyunch; J. P.
Morgan; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; Travelers Group, and

The oversight committee, which now controls 90 percent of the equity in
Long-Term Capital, has assumed authority over all aspects of the fund's

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:04 - ID#300202)
Man On The Moon/Christ Still Appearin' @ Cape Breton Do-nutzShop
Still lookin' for Wiseguys/men or Virgins

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:04 - ID#119358)
we're toast.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:12 - ID#288295)
That quote from Ray DeMoss in WSJ is posted on

vronsky's gold forum this morning.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:22 - ID#45173)
@Mike Sheller re your 09:33
Eloquent post. Thx.

I'll add that when it comes time for gov't to choose between inflation and unemployment, also the choice between inflation and the unemployment of incumbant politicians, goldbugs get their day in the sun.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:25 - ID#258195)
Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies
Here, as promised, are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the month of September so far:-

Date | Close | High | Low |

01 Sep | 69.08 | 69.22 | 68.72 |

02 Sep | 69.78 | 69.85 | 69.54 |

03 Sep | 69.70 | 69.89 | 68.27 |

04 Sep | 69.95 | 70.18 | 69.72 |

07 Sep | 70.07 | 70.22 | 69.86 |

08 Sep | 69.78 | 70.26 | 69.58 |

09 Sep | 70.10 | 70.19 | 69.68 |

10 Sep | 70.58 | 70.58 | 69.98 |

11 Sep | 70.51 | 71.31 | 70.25 |

14 Sep | 70.24 | 70.60 | 70.22 |

15 Sep | 69.80 | 70.52 | 69.77 |

16 Sep | 69.98 | 70.19 | 69.82 |

17 Sep | 70.05 | 70.21 | 69.12 |

18 Sep | 70.42 | 70.63 | 70.00 |

21 Sep | 70.62 | 71.02 | 70.49 |

22 Sep | 70.38 | 70.46 | 70.12 |

23 Sep | 70.56 | 70.58 | 70.14 |

24 Sep | 70.12 | 71.32 | 70.12 |

25 Sep | 71.60 | 72.45 | 71.08 |

( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )

These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.

Note that the 6.1% rise in the Dollar price of gold ( from $279 to $296 ) so far this month is made up of a 3.6% rise in the True Value of Gold and a 2.5% fall in the value of the US dollar against all other currencies.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:32 - ID#290172)
Carl--This morning's FT sez LTCM in for 200bn--
See! It is not so bad after all! {:- ) )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:34 - ID#258195)
Gold Lease Rates
I calculate the gold lease rates ( 1, 3, 6 and 12-month ) each day from data available in the Financial Times. I take the "Loco London Mean Gold Lending Rate ( vs US$ ) " ( the so-called Contango ) ( and also, I understand, known as the ' Forward ' rate ) for each of the aforesaid time maturities from the equivalent Interest Rates which are given under "Dollar LIBOR BBA London" . This appears to be the method used by the World Gold Council, among others, so why not everyone? Although my figures are not exactly the same as the ones mentioned by the WGC in their weekly commentary a week or so late, they are within 0.2% of their out-of-date ones which appear in their weekly commentary up to 10 days late.

Thus the rates for last week, Monday 21st to Friday 25th Sept worked out as follows:

LoanPeriod | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri,,,,,,,

01-Month | 0.62,,,,,,,0.61,,,,,,,,0.71,,,,,,,,,,0.75,,,,,,,,1.745

03-Month | 0.84,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.92,,,,,,,,,,0.96,,,,,,,,1.502

06-Month | 1.35,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,1.42,,,,,,,,,,1.39,,,,,,,,1.660

12-Month | 1.66,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,,,1.62,,,,,,,,1.732

NB The rise in the rates Friday was first noticed in a Reuter's report and passed on to this discussion group by MOREGOLD at 12.04 ( Kitco time ) Friday 25th Sept. ( Thanks, Moregold )

The 0.905% rise in the 1-month gold Lease Rate from 0.75% at the close in London on Thursday to 1.745% at the close in London Friday was made up of:-

a fall of 0.15625% in the 1-month LIBOR ( which fell from 5.53125% Thursday to 5.37500% Friday )


a fall of 1.11% in the 1-month Loco London MGLR ( which fell from 4.74% Thursday to 3.63% Friday ) .

It is not clear whether the 1.11% fall in the Loco London MGLR is due to a rise in Demand for gold ( eg by speculators wanting to short it again after its rise in price late Thursday ) ...................

or whether it is due to a lack of supply by Central Banks who may be wanting to get it back from those who have got it on loan already. ( They probably dread a repeat of the default when Drexel Burnham Lambert financial services group collapsed in 1990 ) .

Note that the yield curve became inverted Friday ( ie 12-month rate lower than 1-month rate ) .


(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:36 - ID#275194)
My gut feeling!!!!!!.........I told my wife last night that, things look like they will
unfold like this. IMHO. The Stark realization of the culmination of this bubble will dawn on the market in one fell swoop. Two major factors have combined to pop the bubble! Derivatives, and the undying belief that 401K money just keep this thing going up.

The market will open, thats right, OPEN one day ( maybe very soon ) 2000 points lower, or 25%.
The fact that we are talking about this like it's common knowledge ( it is to us at Kitco ) is mind boggling. he media that is. "Can't see the forrest for the trees". Does anyone really think that LTCM is the end of this? When it dawns on the market, look out below.
Take last Wend. and Thur. for example. Wen. when AG talked about the rate cut, the market went up 257 points. The next day, the market came to it's senses and realized that, it still won't have any earnings increase over the next year, and down it went. It is starting to to dawn on the market what kind of enviorment we are truly in!!
My question to the group is this, How much longer will the market keep it' head in the sand? Or will it? And do you want to own stocks other than PM stocks. I think the PM's have telegraphed their direction when, not if, but when realization sets in!!!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:37 - ID#20767)
Gianni Dioro: Believe it or not, it has already been accomplished!
During the civil war ( 1861-1865 ) , President Lincoln needed money to finance the war from the north. The bankers were going to charge him 24% - 36% interest. Lincoln was horrified and went away greatly distressed, for he was a man of principle and would not think of plunging his beloved country into a debt that the country would find impossible to pay back.

Eventually President Lincoln was advised to get Congress to pass a law authorizing the printing of full legal tender Treasury notes to pay for the war effort. Lincoln recognized the great benefits of this issue. At one point he wrote:
"... ( we ) gave the people of this republic the greatest blessing they have ever had - their own paper money to pay their own debts..."
The Treasury notes were printed with green ink on the back,so the people called them "Greenbacks."

Lincoln printed 400 million dollars worth of greenbacks ( the exact amount being $449,338,902 ) , money that he delegated to be created, a debt-free and interest-free money to finance the war. It served as legal tender for all debts, public and private. He printed it, paid it to the soldiers, to the U.S. Civil Service Employees, and bought supplies for war.

Shortly after that happened, "The London Times" printed the following:
"If that mischievous financial policy, which had its origin in the North American Republic, should become indurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without a debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in the history of civilized governments of the world. The brains and the wealth of all countries will go to North America. That government must be destroyed or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe."

[I question the timing here as another source pins this quote to 1865; however, the other facts are multi-sourced, and world history was not dependent upon the timing of this quote. Bob in DC.]

The bankers obviously understood. The only thing that is a threat to their power is sovereign governments printing interest-free and debt-free paper money. They knew it would break the power of the international bankers.

After this was published in "The London Times," the British Government, which was controlled by the London and other European Bankers, moved to support the Confederate South, hoping to defeat Lincoln and the Union, and destroy this government which they said had to be destroyed. They were stopped by two things!

First, Lincoln knew the British people, and he knew that Britain would not support slavery, so he issued the Emancipation Proclamation, which declared that slavery in the United States was abolished. At this point, the London Bankers could not openly support the Confederacy because the British people simply would not stand for their country supporting slavery.

Second, the Czar of Russia sent a portion of the Russian Navy to the United States with orders that its admiral would operate under the command of Abraham Lincoln. These ships of the Russian Navy then became a threat to the ships of the British Navy which had intended to break the blockade and help the South.

The North won the war, and the Union was preserved. America remained as one nation.

Of course, the Bankers were not going to give in that easy, for they were determined to put an end to Lincoln's interest-free, debt-free Greenbacks. He was assassinated by an agent of the Bankers shortly after the war ended.

Thereafter, Congress revoked the Greenback law and enacted, in its place, the National Banking Act. The national banks were to be privately owned and the national bank notes they issued were to be interest bearing. The act also provided that the Greenbacks should be retired from circulation as soon as they came back to the Treasury in payment of taxes.


The thing I would add to such a system is GOLD! Gold to be used as a benchmark, a balancing mechanism.

Bob in DC

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:42 - ID#26793)
SDRer, Carl
If the LTCM figure is $1.25 trillion there is no way out. If the correct number is $200 billion there is probably no way out either. These losses will compound as they impact others. Enough to start Dark Ages II. How can one company of only a few people be deeper in the hole than Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Brazil combined? Greed has no limits.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:45 - ID#374235)
@ Kapex re Gut Feeling

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:46 - ID#275194)
Does Ray Demoss post here?
.What screen name?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:48 - ID#43460)
Gianni Dioro re mystery coin
Here is a link I picked up today which may describe your coin. Of trivia interest is that during the early 1940's the US Office of Strategic Services minted an unknown number of these coins and used them to buy supplies for unconventional armed forces fighting behind Nazi lines in Europe. No one can tell the difference between genuine and OSS coins.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:51 - ID#347447)
the market will keep its head in the sand for another 8 - 10 months.

Watch the utilities. They have been making new highs. We are IN the deflation now. The utes may be saying this is as bad as it gets before the asset inversion that brings on "inflation" as people expect it - through the mind boggling bailout money that will be fed ( pun intended ) to the banks in order to "privatize" the rescue of destabilized dominoes. Greenspan will shoot for "equilibrium." That ALONE, if he can do it ( my hat off if he does ) will mean an even further expansion of the credit money supply, and eventually currency, on top of this record-breaker we have been experiencing for the last 7 years. Or maybe I'm nuts.

I still think it is not out of order to claim that we have just seen a bottom in stocks, generally, and that we have yet to complete a top formation. This means we are about to go up once more - maybe not to record highs or a "new bull market," etc, but into a monster topping pattern that will eventually disclose the future of the future to those keen enuf to interpret it. Sort of like 1966-'68. Equities should be half gold shares, half oil shares, and half obscure small cap plays. And the other half of your portfolio should be in gold bullion. With the last half in Silver bullion.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:53 - ID#20767)
Gianni Dioro, All: My apologies!
"....He was assassinated by an agent of the Bankers shortly after the war ended."

I forgot to mention that I have inadequate sources to prove this obvious point of contention. I am leery of it myself.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:55 - ID#347447)
Thanks for the illuminating historical perspective. It is said by some that it was John Kennedy's intention to follow in Lincoln's footsteeps vis a vis the Federal Reserve. As tolerant would say...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:57 - ID#119358)
that's five halves. I guess that's your original two halves and I presume, three more halves that you get from some poor fellows who are short. Am I correct?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:57 - ID#347447)
oops sorry Abe
meant to say feetsteps.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:58 - ID#275194)
Ray Demoss?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 10:59 - ID#43460)
Envy re 3:54 post
Very astute post. You must be a pirate at heart, too. ( 8-^ ) )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:03 - ID#273432)

His handle is only Ray.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:07 - ID#254112)
@Mike Sheller: your 9:18
I must have hit a nerve. But I'm not too sorry about it.
You might not have noticed. But yesterday JTF, whom I highly esteem, published here the opinion that AG and Rubin are doing a great job.
I think I didn't misunderstand him. I think he really meant it.

I liked to read your discussion with Rhody. Both of you have great insight into the reasons of the economic crisis in which the globe and the US economy are in.
My attention is not only focused on the systemic cycle with overinvestment and devaluation of human work, but also on two more sides of the situation:
1 ) How do the factions of the financial oligarchy act in this situation.
( means the power struggle or war ) .
2 ) How do national economies or economic blocks of nations act in this situation.

I think we all agree that there is dominating financial/political activity coming out of the US and influencing the rest of the world, especially right now the Asian countries, not to the advantage of the Asian populations.
In general, my goal is analysis, not preaching. I usually appreciate your analytical comments a lot.
But as a European, living since ten years in America ( around Washington D.C. ) I often feel challenged in my observation of American attitudes
which are sometimes too self-centered. In general Americans have very little awareness of the destructive influence which American activities, from Hollywood to the American military, and American financial power groups, impose upon the rest of the world.
I don't blame you personnally for that. So please allow me to direct your and your countrymen's attention to these issues. Usually, you cannot know it, because you havn't suffered it. And I include here not at least the destruction of cultures world wide as part of the suffering I'm talking about. Even though, I'm aware, the push into poverty of entire continents is worse than these cultural lamentations.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:07 - ID#254321)
Boy -- that's alot of halves!
Mike S. Doe that mean that if I have 100k to buy stocks, I can put 50% into gold, 50% in to Oil, 50% into ---, and 50% into ---? Can I hire you as my consultant? I can double my money before I even invest anything!

Seriously, I agree with you that AG has a tough job this time. As I recall, the money expansion of the 1991 - 1994 or so period was a near thing, as the M2 and M3 were contracting rapidly. And the recovery was fairly weak. This time will be tougher, unless he starts to expand the money supply very soon. But -- if he does, he risks ballooning the US equities markets, and sucking in 'flight to safety' equity from all over the world.

I'm hopinng the Clinton investigations will hold the market bull in check.

With regard to deflation, I don't know if gloomish and doomish JP is right -- he could be -- down to 1-2% interest rates, I believe.

I think what we need to do is watch the commodity price indices very carefully, as they correlate quite closely with gold equity prices. I think we are safe as long as commodity prices are steady or heading up. Did you know if you plot relative stregth of CRY0 vs gold bullion, gold bullion has been steadily gaining in relative strength in a linear fashion since Jan 1998? If CRY0 bottoms, all of that pent up energy in gold will be releaseed, and we will have a nice rally. What we are having right now may be the beginning of it.

No one said that riding the gold bug Tsunami would be easy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:10 - ID#273432)
Gianni Dioro
Here's my guess about your mystery coin:

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:11 - ID#26793)
Economists call for monetary union between the U.S. and Mexico.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:12 - ID#290172)
Donald, Carl...
"She look'd down to Camelot.
Out flew the web and floated wide;
The mirror crack'd from side to side;
'The curse is come upon me,' cried
The Lady of Shalott.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:16 - ID#273432)
Gianni Dioro

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:17 - ID#26793)
Day of reckoning seen coming for the gold shorts

Lan Man
(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:23 - ID#320108)
@Common is LAST to see any
The main reason I never bought any HL is due to the preferred shares. I have not seen a fin. statement in 6 months , but I bet that all of the profits went to those holders of pref. shares. Not saying that the price of the stock will not appreciate, just that after all is said and done the ordinary shares are worth squat...

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:29 - ID#24135)
Jumpy .. makes me jumpy !
To all ..
One question .. what about redemptions from LTC??
if you had 10 mill in that outfit .. I say there ..
there long would it take you to start trying to get
it out ??? Id be there when the office opens Monday
morning ..

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:37 - ID#227238)
It's a real pleasure to see others begin to recognise that which has been so obvious to us for so very long.

Rising investor interest and the imminent demise of hedge funds spells some interesting action in PMs. We may well awaken some fine morning and find gold lock limit up.

Glenn has sported the opinion that the market is suffering from a 1000 ton excess of production. If events continue on their present course the market may find itself suddenly wanting several times that 1000 tons. And all without a great deal of warning. ...... In short, Another's long term contention that gold will not trade at all, may come to pass. Certainly the signs are leading in that direction. Yes?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:41 - ID#242325)
The Match King on Gold
Rhody: Agree that soaring lease rates means the gold bull probably has begun. But looks like we will see a considerable pullback before we break $300 decisively. Still far too early to chase strong rallies.

Was watching a 1930s movie -- THE MATCH KING -- the other day. This was a thinly disguised biography of the famed 1930s Ponzi swindler Ivar Krugar who monopolized the match market in many countries. In one of his monologues the match king says that gold only has value because human institutions give it value. Its value is not intrinsic because it cannot be consumed unlike matches for instance. Sounds very much like today's gold bears.


APH: Thanks again for keeping us informed about your trades!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:41 - ID#242325)
The Match King on Gold
Rhody: Agree that soaring lease rates means the gold bull probably has begun. But looks like we will see a considerable pullback before we break $300 decisively. Still far too early to chase strong rallies.

Was watching a 1930s movie -- THE MATCH KING -- the other day. This was a thinly disguised biography of the famed 1930s Ponzi swindler Ivar Krugar who monopolized the match market in many countries. In one of his monologues the match king says that gold only has value because human institutions give it value. Its value is not intrinsic because it cannot be consumed unlike matches for instance. Sounds very much like today's gold bears.


APH: Thanks again for keeping us informed about your trades!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:50 - ID#245136)
Dabchick 10:30 Lease rates
Thanks for your post ..good food for thought. I too have been trying to make sense of the recent Au lease rate as a diagonostic for jumping back into the market. Rhody, Moregold's et al posts are also of great assistence. FWIW the 1.11%fall in the LocoLonMGLC is probably due to the rise in demand for Au after Thursdays short imho. But the Inverted Fri yeild curve leaves me concerned for the Au/ag markets next week. 302 was not sustainable. But then, what do any of us know standing backwards on Albreichs shoulders looking forward gulping and puffing smokesignals from some Northamerican native while not being able to see the nightshed for all the planets ( due to alignment problems! )

aulease rates

(Sat Sep 26 1998 11:53 - ID#242325)
Abbey Cohen probably has been the best stock market forecaster during the long bull. But does naybody really believe she will be much good over the next five years? Gurus typically have a strong run than flame out when market conditions change fundamentally. Remember Joe Granville and Henry Kaufman.

Why should the gold market be any different? The gold bears have been right on the money for several years. But now that global financial conditions are changing radically, does anybody really think they will be any more relible in the future than Abby Cohen is likely to be. Glenn has indeed made some pretty good calls, but past is not necessarily prologue in this business.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:04 - ID#288231)

consider the following chart........

what stands out?......the intra-day pog is showing signs
of volatility..something not seen for many a it too soon?
volatility is an options best friend.....the sellers are
having to fight an increasingly difficult up-hill battle with the
buy-gold-on-the-dips-for-lunch-bunch......incredible. glenn has
expressed the opinion of a comex floor trader..emphatically!.do you for a
second think 98% of the other floor traders are speaking
in a different voice? their positions must be protected...their
position known.....the line drawn...sand sullied...our legacy one
of debt, due to of moralistic decadence..the pre-cursor
to disaster as evidenced through-out history........not because of glenn..i respect him....and mean no dis-honour...however, time does
not stand still, and the minions of the fiat curriencies--sellers of gold--play a game much bigger than the simple fattening of the bank
account, and know it not......

the death of the paper-tiger....she will die with the sellers of gold
be-draggled inside her....eviscerated from stem to stern...........
that which gave the tiger her initial strength, infinite ink, has
drowned the beast.

the selling of an ideal; toilet paper and ink as wealth..with multiples that are 80x valuation...ludicrous...pennies on the $$....

it was inexorably slow and took 69 years to fill the is bursting at the seams with the peopleo...reminds me of
orson wellS and 'THE TIME MACHINE'.....the time traveller went into the
future...saw peopleo who were slowly summoned--they did not know why----- ( analogous to the greed today ) and consumed by their was obvious to the time traveller---gold bug---that their environment
was totally manipulated for the good of the few, at the expense of the many....with terminal consequences.

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants'......sir isaac newton..

'the farther back you can look, the farther forward you can see'
..sir winston churchill...

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'..sir isaac..

3 of the greatest tools ever.........and they are free.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:04 - ID#341189)
SDRer, Donald
The depressing part of the derivatives predicament is how predictable this is. Many of us here over the last year and 1/2 have lamented the pyramiding of credit based on math models. Long ago we discussed even the Black/sholes evaluation of option values. My math consultant ( #1 son ) gave me his evaluation of this method at my request several years ago. It was basially, it's fine if the stock price variability estimate isn't violated. The curse of all math models is their use in situations which violate their boundry conditions. In addition, applications of math models always involves judgements which are outside the rigour of the models.

Lan Man
(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:15 - ID#320108)
@To Protect the Children...
U.S. quietly grabs Utah land

Once protested, 1.7 million-acre deal slips through distracted House

By David M. Bresnahan Copyright 1998,

There are many ways to skin a cat, and there are even more ways to pass a bill in Congress. One way to do it is to have a voice vote when virtually all members of Congress are absent.

The "Utah Schools and Lands Exchange Act of 1998" sounds uncontroversial, and that is the apparent reason no one objected to it. The story of how this bill passed the House and is now ready to be slipped through the Senate without debate is a lesson on how the game of politics is played.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:47 - ID#266105)

John Disney/redemptions from LTCM--

As I understand it an investor's 10mil is in for a minimum
of three years with a maximum withdrawal of 12% at the end
of each calendar year upon request.

I suspect they were using cheap Japanese money and that
played no small part in the bailout, nobody wanting to
discover the consequences of additional pressures on
the Japanese banking system, especially with the Nikkei
under 14,000.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:56 - ID#384350)
Gagnrad, Silverbaron, Boardreader
Thanks for the links to the Maria Theresa Taler.

Gagnrad, where does it talk about the OSS. It is a nice coin, especially the reverse side with the 2 headed eagle - coat of arms.

Did the coins minted by the OSS have the same specs?

And who currently mints this coin? I wouldn't mind buying some more of them. Anyone have any info?
Boardreader - Yes the Greenback was a non-interest Tally. And the Usury bankers were so angry that they had their tools in congress make the Greenback not "legal tender" for tax payments. And of course as you mentioned Lincoln was assassinated just like JFK when he tried the same thing.

The Greenbacks are a good idea. I think this is what Russia is currently doing. The only drawback is that Govts should be limited to their ability to print at will. That's why the US constitution calls for Gold & Silver as official currency.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 12:59 - ID#286249)
More reasons why holding the lid on POG becomes increasingly more difficult

The Economist, Sept 26~Oct 2 1998
Finance and Economics
"Why risk is a four-letter word"

"Investors now see only risk where they once saw only juicy returns."

"an alternative is that a bubble might have formed in government-bond pricesthanks to extreme aversion to risk among all classes of investor. If so, these investments may prove far from safe in practice."


"My bond is your word"
Moscow [excerpts]
"The easiest targets for lawsuits are other westerners-and, in particular, those bank that sold forward foreign-currency contracts. These were bought by western investors in Rusian debt to protect themselves against the risk of devaluation; for extra safety, most were bought via western not Russian banks. Unfortunately, most banks have refused to honour the contracts, leaving investors with billions of dollars of losses after the rouble's plunge. Some unlucky ones, such as a fund run by III, an American hedge fund, have been forced into bankruptcy. It plans to sue the banks-Deutsche Bank, ING, Credit Lyonnais and Societe Generale-that sold it forward contracts.

insist that what happened in Moscow should not affect a contract struck in New York or London. But the banks argue that they were simply acting as brokers for such contracts between investors and the Russian banks: they should not be blamed if the Russian banks now renege. Moreover, the contracts were subject to force majeure clauses, which voided them if the government did something really outrageous-as it very arguably did. Citibank, a big dealer in forward contracts, says it will happily see Mr. McGinnis in court."

Got gold?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:01 - ID#31868)
I'm just going to be nice...and that is that...go fight wars...kill...maim and hate...I
WILL have no part in any of it...drop your children off so they can be baby sat properly...oh

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:05 - ID#421269)

The tip of the iceberg has been exposed, but the rising water level will show it's true size. There will be many deaths from drowning, as these beggars get their just rewards, and those that have rigged the game will find the end unpleasant.

For many small investors the end will come too late--- who will be their savior ?

Ray, enjoyed our phone conversation-- Wall St. Journal , glad to see a goldbug from Louisiana getting press!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:20 - ID#240241)
And all this time I thought this stuff was hard!
hmmm, 1,250,000,000,000 divided by 2,200,000,000 = 568 that I will
now use as a multiplier for my investments. Ok, first I want a nice
$200,000 home. Normally my bank would want 10% down, thats $20,000.
BUT WAIT!!! With the new investment strategy I've just learned about,
and with banks seemingly falling all over themselves to loan large sums
out with no questions asked, I should be able to hedge that $20,000
into ( $20,000 time 568 ) $11,360,000. Now being the good, decent &
honest guy that I am, I offer to allow the bank to hold %50 of my paper
as collateral for my down payment. Geeezzz,, I can now only afford a
$50,000,000 home ( watch out Bill Gates, I'm catching you quickly! ) . Darn,
& I was hoping for something a little roomier!
Now, just gotta go out & find another stupid banker who will take the
other %50 of the house as collateral for my next big move.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:21 - ID#288295)
Gianni Dioro
Here is one place that advertises M.T. Thalers for sale:

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:22 - ID#286249)
Carl-Donald, Surely LTCM is a salutary lesson of folly

in a world mesmerized by 'experts', blind and deaf to the 'commonsensical'?

And, on the small chance you all haven't enough about which to worry, this-
"A space oddity
A tiny error in the paths of two spacecraft may require the rewriting of some of the laws of physics.. they appear to be experiencing an unexplained extra tug from the sun-raising the possibility that there is something amiss with the laws of gravity."

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:30 - ID#153110)
@ALBERICH @Shellor @Camo Comraderie.
@Alberich, throwing objects around space is not the problem. But, Man requires an environment fit for his biology. It is the provision of that environment which the Moon Walk Fraud lied about. Visit the website. Think about how an air conditioner works. Think about heat exchange. Pressure differential. Radiation. And the other issues.

Please keep up your posts. Don't be deterred by the Greenback Empire Patriotism of those posters who miss their M-14's and the Vietnam experience.

@Camo Comraderie is in the works for another generation. I noticed a Congressman is getting a little ahead by proposing Reinstitution of the Draft. This time around, I anticipate they ( the Fed ones ) will try to just skip the Great Depression and go straight to Conscription and War.

@Shellor. It's no joke. When you realize it's no joke, then contemplate the fact no scientist has blown the whistle.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:30 - ID#26793)
Tietmeyer comments on Euro, world financial turmoil etc.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:31 - ID#333126)
for some light entertainment

I almost fell over laughing reading about the "Mafia bonds". hope you like it as much as I did. :- )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:41 - ID#26793)
ALL the money in ALL the Money Market Funds is $1.276 trillion. LTCM problem is $1.25 trillion.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:45 - ID#26793)
UBS wants to know WHO is responsible for their problem.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:48 - ID#26793)
Bankers Trust (Mr. Newman) say "What? us worry?, We will just raise fees. No kidding!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 13:53 - ID#26793)
LTCM is either the sign of a bottom or start of something big.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:06 - ID#119358)
@Isure...Of what?
Both little studios are wingin' into S.Port today for a wedding.....stay in your home and off da' streets!!!!! ;^ ) ~ Fax me a list of bailbondsmen, por favor.....ohmy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:10 - ID#240241)
Donald & Ravenfire
Thanks for the links.

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:18 - ID#24135)
oh well .. easy come easy go..
for 2bro2b
oH how simply SPIFFING !! I think there are gonna
be some seriously p!ssed off ex-rich guys out there
Think about it .. first year 45 %, next year 17 %,
next year bankrupt and bailed, what comes NEXT year ???

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:25 - ID#24135)
I like your attitude ..
Alberich ..
You're a stand up guy.. remember ..
you just got there a little after
I was leaving in dismay ..

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:34 - ID#384350)
SDR - 3rd Party Risk
So the Big banks are Reneging on the option/derivative contracts they have been selling. I knew there was a good reason why I don't like Banks. These glorified Bookies are saying we can't pay you because the other guy went broke and cover his side of the bet. So I can't pay you.

What kind of crapola is that! If these banks are "brokers" as they claim, then they should have made that clear. The people in question obviously must have considered the possibility of a Russian default on its debt as a distinct possibility if not near certainty. Force Majeure, mon cul!

This attitude by the bankers, doesn't make me feel too comfortable about keeping money in the bank. The Rats are showing signs of desperation.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:34 - ID#219363)
@Mike Sheller
Re: Your 07:25. You said "There is no perfect system...only some are more objective and reliable than others to obtain certain results". I would submit to you that the markets are indeed a perfect system, and to take it a step further, everything is perfect. Everything is perfect until it is changed, and then it is perfectly what it has changed into. There is no way for it not to be perfect, or it wouldn't be that way. Some look at the market and see their retirement. Some look at the market and see a quick buck. Some look at the market and see the destruction of a foreign country, or a rainforest. Some look at the market and see a news story. Some look at the market and see illusion. Some look at the market and see reality. Some look at the market and see something that needs to be made more efficient. Some look at the market and think about the good 'ole days. The market is perfect the way it is, until something changes it into what it will perfectly become. The thing we need to remember is that we can't change something for the better but that we change something for the worse, or, said another way, we never gain something without losing something in return. We should choose our dreams carefully.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:37 - ID#345321)
rhody, been following your line of thought on lease rates............
thanks for the education. I'm not a trader, so don't understand all of the technicalities, but your thoughts make sense.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:38 - ID#345321)
All - Re: NASA moon landing a hoax............get a clue................
Would Werner von Braun put his name on a hoax?! NOT!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:40 - ID#266105)

JD-- what comes next year, the usual. Ongoing lawsuits.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:42 - ID#341312)
Apollo 11 is a hoax?
C'mon guys, get real. The Saturn V was every bit as real as Hitler's V2, the Soviets' SS-18's and 20's and our own Minutemen, Peacekeepers, Redstones et al. Once you possess the vehicle technology to place a nuclear warhead anywhere on earth in 30 min or less getting to the moon is just a somewhat more complex exercise in orbital mechanics with the additional complications of human life support thrown in. The goal was achieved gradually over a decade at tremendous expense in both labor and even 3 astronaut's lives. Believing Apollo 11 is a hoax belongs in the same category as pyramid power, global warming, and borrowing your way out of debt. It's ludicrous beyond description. Yes, conspiracies do exist but this is not one of them. Not even close.
Comex silver hits what, about 73 million ounces? Tick, tock, tick, tock...The shorts will go BOOM one of these months. Just like LTCM. Warren and me be laughin' all the way to the bank. Oops, I forgot, as of sometime 2000 Warren IS the bank. Ingot we trust.

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:42 - ID#24135)
Silly old us ...
Thabo Mbeki .. is not too bright after all it seems.
A report in the local press stated that the "business
confidence index" has hit some kind of a recent low.
So Thabo comes out and in next days paper he states
that that only speaks for WHITE business .. he is
sure that a similar "poll" of BLACK business would
give a different result.
It was then pointed out to Thabo that the index was
not a "poll" at all and had nothing to do with race,
but was in fact a compendium of some 13 odd Government
based statistics .. some as the cpi .. the rand rate..
unimployment rate .. etc etc..
Thabo then said something like "I KNEW THAT!!".
He is now said to be trying to design such an index
using the same input that will give different results
for White and Black businessmen.
Havent heard much about Maseru or Lesotho .. looks
like we were forced to destroy it in order to save it ..
now where have I heard that before ..

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:46 - ID#24135)
Oh I get it ..
for 2bro2b

OF kyourse ... zee lawyears get
what izz left of all zee moNAYE ..
lak allwaiz ..

John Disney
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:50 - ID#24135)
Meestair Gullible ...
fivelightair ..
Zat's yooooo ... seely boy ..
You believe anyzeeng ..

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Sep 26 1998 14:53 - ID#295111)
ABX short position
Just checked Barrick's short position on the TSE in todays Financial Post.

It's a WHOPPING 16 Million shares, about 4% of the total ABX O/S Shares!

Once the ECB announces the long awaited restrictions on Gold Leasing/Sales by member CB's in Europe ( so as to protect the EURO launch on Jan/1/99 ) then those investors who have shorted ABX will get really burned. AN THEY DESERVE IT ALONG WITH ALL OTHERS WHO HAVE SHORTED GOLD.
It'll be nice to see Peter Ward of Lehman Brothers go up in flames.

Rumor has the announcement will come in October/November.

I'm adding more ABX to my Gold portfolio come Monday.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:06 - ID#225236)
Wall Street meets its match!!!
We now have a clear proof that "perestroika" was a clever trick played by Russian ( KGB ) elite. Seeing that the grass-roots level Russian was fed up with broken promises of "Communism," they said: "here - have some Capitalism."

But, of course, the West has to give us money or else we go nuts with all the nukes. The West has to buy all the old, useless weapons, or, you got it, we will go nuts.

Now that we have all the money, we can say to the West: "screw you!" If you try to do something about it, we will go nuts. The pro-western "reformers" have been discredited and the KGB elite is back at the helm ( with all the money ) .

This way, the old KGB types got the West to finance rebiulding of their power-base and modernizing of their weapons. Very clever!!! The additional benefit might very well be the fall of the western financial system ( to be seen ) .

But how could the western "investors" see through it???

Gee, it was soooo hard to figure that one out!!! The Russians have played that trick, what 20, 30 times?

Example: After WWII, there was a strong anti-Russian movement in the Eastern Europe. Rather than "address the problem" directly, Russia sent West some moles to play the role of the exiled "resistance" leaders. These "leaders" then came back to their countries with western cash and ( having cash and western backing ) quickly replaced legitimate resistance leaders. They let their moles to forment unrest for a couple of years until all trouble-makers wanna-bees were flushed out. Then they pulled a plug on them. Brilliant, efficient, and money-making scheme. Not only trouble-makers are eliminated and you make a couple of bucks on it!

The lessons: You do need somebody smarter at the helm than Arkansas Pig-Molestor Boy to out-crook the Russians. ( being able to play sax just does not cut it ) .

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:08 - ID#45173)
Moon landing a hoax, also the stock market
I mean, have you ever SEEN the stock market? How do you know it's not just a SCAM by the GOVERNMENT? All you're really doing when you buy stocks is pay the government. Fidelity is just a front! And another thing, the President is a hoax. That's right. He doesn't really exist. He's a hologram. So is Lewinski. So is her dress, althought the stain was real. And another thing, dollar bills are made of a special paper that causes them to dissappear when the government hits them with a special coded beam from a ray gun. That's why they've been able to print so much money without us seeing any inflation. Think about it! And another thing...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:24 - ID#219363)
Okay, so the moon landing could have been a hoax, the posters have a point, I have no direct knowledge of a moon landing, the stock market, or in my case, even that the world is round ( though I can say that a plane flight from America to Italy takes a long time ) - but I choose to believe that they're all true, along with a gillion other people, and that's almost as good as if we had actually landed on the moon, whether we did or we didn't.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:44 - ID#266105)
a Saturday morning goldbug thought

When the world changed for gold in '33 and again in '71 in widely unexpected surprise announcements resulting in official or defacto devaluation of the dollar vis-a-vis gold, the situation included an accumulated glut of dollars and dollar-denominated instruments
held as reserves by foreign central banks.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:52 - ID#266105)

It is said that a seagull will greedily gobble a proffered
Alka-Seltzer tablet or two which hits the gullet juices
prompting an explosion in a flurry of feathers.

Thence the root morpheme and etymology of gullible.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:54 - ID#290172)
Gianni Dioro-re: bankers as glorified bookies

Wellll, that may be a bit unfair to bookies, who appear to have a very straightforward repayment schedule; pay-in-full on due date or YOU'RE rolled-over.

However, about 'money in the bank' we are in accord. What happens when the number of like-minded grows from 2 to 2,000 to 20,000 to. King Banker Rats carrying the 20th century's Plague of Red Debt.

Envy@in.a.Lewis.Carroll.mood Great fun reading your wry commentary this
morning, for which thanks!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:55 - ID#45173)
So the whole idea that the moon landing was a hoax is itself a hoax. Oh, what a tangled web we weave!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 15:57 - ID#258142)
@Petronius, 15:06 - Russia
Look, a lot of major market payers lost in Russia, first of all - on Russian bonds ( GKO ) . So what? These bonds had yield of 60 - 100% annually. Everyone in his clear mind understands that such kind of return is a payment for risk. One can also measure this risk by this return. Banks where simply gambling, having their intermediate gains and then it just happen. Who is to blame?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:00 - ID#433172)
Anyone notice Alan Greenspan's last public appearance ? Looked bloated,edemic,quite a bit older? Like he just came off a bender? And at his age....The finger on the button this week will be shaking er trembling, uncertain...senile. The good ole boys are losing it.

Monday the sun will shine...gulp.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:06 - ID#429277)
GOLD @ US$350-US$450 by mid 1999
The afternoon downward movement in the price of gold yesterday Sept25/98 and the small uptick in the DJA was the result of DESPERATION on the part of the "Big Money" players on Wall Street. They know that if the DJA continues to weaken because of investor fear concerning the DJA being overvalued,the weakening US$ and the continuing decline in off shore markets, that the only remaining alternative safe haven for individuals will be seen to be GOLD. A massive world wide sale of US$'s and US$ investments would result in skyrocketing values for gold. This scenario is the nightmare of Wall Street institutional players and they will put all of their own and THEIR CLIENT'S assets on the line to prevent this from happening. Hence already large margin positions on stocks and short positions in gold were made even larger to push the DJA higher and price of gold down.

However, their efforts will be for naught, the momentum is turning in favour of hard assets as shown by recent rise in CB lease rates and price uptick in gold and other precious metals. It is time to " Pay the PIPER" and they can't pay without liquidating large paper positions, which obviously will only make a bad situation worse.

Greenspan's coming attempt to keep the market liquid by lowering interest rates is only a signal that payment date is getting closer every day. The race to the exist will become a stampede by the end of 1998 and the only save haven will be gold and gold stocks of companies that have gold in the ground. Take your positions now because latter it will be "TOO LATE".

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:09 - ID#190411)
@ John Disney
-Good thing Mr. Mbeki doesn't do derivatives.

Anglogold is doing OK as of late. I believe that they are to declare dividend this Monday. Do you have any clues on the amount?
( I'd bet that if I hadn't gotten screwed on Western Deeps, it would be better. )
I suppose that it will be somewhat better than Barrick's, though.

Are there any credible estimates on Harmony and St. Helena?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:10 - ID#266105)

EJ-- maybe something about swallowing things offered,
hook line & sinker. Got bait?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:15 - ID#347447)
On the run - Alberich, Mozel, Envy
Alberich: your 11:07 - I decry the excesses of hollywood and militarism as you do. I decry the state of culture around the world as I'm sure you must - and in America as well. But a leetle Selfrighteousness goes a long way it seems. My goal is preaching and not analysis. Analysis is only a tool to show one what they must preach.
I have also had my share of worldwide misery, thank you, with a bellyful in Southeast Asia some time ago. And I find European pretension to superior cultural attitudes boorish. I repeat, what you describe is the Human Condition.

Mozel: your 13:30 - If no scientist has blown the whistle, doesn't that tell you it IS a joke? I knew you were serious. That to me IS the joke. And I still miss my M14.

Envy: 14:34 - Perfectly said.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:16 - ID#341312)
Messr. Disney
Zo, I am gullible? I zee frum your filz you schtill haf relatifs in Germani, no? Perhaps you vil rekonsider your ztatement. For zere kontinude gud helth, uf kourz.
( Always loved that line "you still have relatives in Germany, no?" It must be from some movie I saw. ) ;- ) BBML

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:22 - ID#433172)
Monex has been advertizing a deal in which they sell clients gold but hold it ( store ) and issue a certificate. Anyone have an opinon as to the reliablity? The number to call?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:23 - ID#190411)
You are correct on your point about the bankers/bookies.
The few problems that I have with this are:

The bookie/client relationship is voluntary. If you choose to deal with them, then you accept the terms of payment. ( Lots of movies will show even the slowest dullard the consequences of default. )

The banking/central bank relationship is brute force. ( How many bookies have nukes? ) The banks can default and hand the bill to a non-involved party. ( tax-cows ) A bookie doesn't hold an entire city or nation, hostage to the customers debt.

Gold Dancer
(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:24 - ID#377196)
Just a short comment before I go sailing...
LTCM is the BRE-X for the stock market. It will start a cascading
sequence of selling that will drive stocks to unheard of levels.

Gold stocks will go the other way and deliever hugh gains to those
who can see that the gold bull is unstopable.

Positons must be unwound. It is going to be the best party I have
ever been to.

Got to go...

thanks, GD

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:33 - ID#242325)
Always enjoy your commentary on the MONEX website! Despite Glenn's claims to the contrary, you probably have the best gold forecasting record here.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:33 - ID#153102)
Do you have any other reason for believing the Moon Walk Fraud than that no scientist has denounced it and that you saw it on the television ?

Do you have a vacuum thermos ? Do you understand how it works ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:36 - ID#190411)
@weekend stockchart readers
I got an e-mail from Bob Johnson's Goldsheet. In it is a nice way to call up a load of stock and index charts for quick perusal on one page.

BTW, Goldsheet has a load of good info for novice goldbugs.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:36 - ID#153102)
On The Necessity & Practicality for Americans of Gold Coin in Circulation
The purpose of a government is to secure the rights of the individual to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Now, some thing is needful that an individual may use to negotiate from transaction to transaction in pursuit of happiness; that is to say, to quest for the gratification of desires with property, pleasures, knowledge, or any other thing, substantial or insubstantial, under the sun. At common-law specie, or gold and silver coin, is needed to conclude a sale and according to the prohibition of the Constitution for the united States of America in Article 1 Section 10.1 that "No State shall ... make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts"; therefore, the needed thing for the pursuit of happiness in America is a gold or silver coin.

The common-law Law we cannot change. We can deny it, but we cannot change it. Its authority is from a higher source than Man. If we say that we as men do not recognize the common-law Law's authority over us and will not submit to it, will not seek to understand and to discover the right reason of the common-law Law handed to us, but shall make our own laws as we please, then we have chosen to live by decree, by the rule of man over man using legality and power, not by the Rule of Law over all men equally. If this is our choice, then we cannot have government according to the purpose stated above. Some other goal than the security of the rights of the individual will be served. The gold coin in circulation and liberty and justice for the individual according to the Rule of Law are inseparable. If this truth is not clear to you, then, in your heart and mind you have not submitted to a Higher Law. This way lies destruction and desolation.

Because silver is in demand as an industrial commodity, a bi-metal or silver and gold coin money is constantly subject to fluctuations of value between the one and the other metal. So, without discourse on this and all the other reasons, I conclude the gold coin is forced on us by circumstances originating beyond our shores and beg the doubting reader's indulgence for making the conclusion without a proof, which for simplicity's sake, I would reserve to another treatise.

The obstacle to gold coin in circulation is supposed by its opponents to arise from the scarcity of gold. From this scarcity the opponents draw a conclusion that not enough gold is available for the vast number of people to divide among themselves in commerce. Now, the gold exchange value of any other thing is a variable according to time, place, and circumstance. The whole island of Manhattan could have the gold exchange value of ten ounces of gold. Everything else then would adjust accordingly. There is a constant fluctuation of the monetary exchange value of all things according to supply and demand. You can start with a gold exchange value of an amount of gold for bushel of corn or ton of steel or any other thing and matters will proceed in the same fashion. Some things will have a lesser gold exchange value and others a greater. The total gold exchange value of all things will be bounded by the total amount of gold in circulation.

So, the problem is simply one of divisibility. Can gold be divided and coined such that it can provide an acceptable exchange value for any thing and hence promote division of labor ? Or, put another way, can gold be coined in increments such that the increments of value in modern things can be fairly represented by a gold exchange value ? Simplied, the problem might be stated as the fabrication of a gold coin of hundreths. Can it be done ?

I think so. And here is why. Gold has as a substance yet another quality beyond the capital qualities of unchangingness and lastingness over infinite time. And that quality is malleability. It is no great feat to hammer gold to a thickness of .002 millimeter. Government mints use essentially the same technology as was used in the middle ages. Government is as unimaginative in this as in everything else it undertakes. What is needed is innovation to coin gold into hundreths of an ounce and to provide a carrier for the small amount of hammered gold. Will not its very thinness faithfully attest to its being gold ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:43 - ID#153102)
I have seen David Copperfield make an elephant appear and disappear. I have seen mirages and optical illusions.

Do you believe the video of the autopsy of the Roswell aliens ?

Come, give me reasons to believe the Moon Walk Fraud. Explain to me how did the equipment work to maintain an environment in space and on the moon fit for man.

I know rockets launch, etc. That is not the issue. The issue is the Moon Walk Fraud.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:45 - ID#286249)
OOPS--Not E Z today, with much fermenting in the E poster world

( 1 ) EJ in a Lewis Carroll mood ( and great fun )

( 2 ) Envy being Panglossian

And now Erle with words as rapiers ala Voltaire!

Thanksyou're bright spots in an overcast world

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:49 - ID#153102)
Why am I receiving nothing but bald assertions on the issue of the Moon Walk Fraud ? Is everyone actually afraid to think about it or incapable of thinking about it. Is it beneath your attention ? Explain to me how the problem of cooling was solved so that human life could be supported in space and on the moon.

We are not talking about earth orbit. The issue is the Moon Walk Fraud.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:51 - ID#252150)
I caught John Willson, PDG's CEO onTV this morn. He seemed quite
pleased with the progress that they have made reducing expenses & feels that with their hedging program--apprx 1/3 hedged, out at least 5 yrs @ prices as hi as 475--they are very strong at present. Talked about pipeline producing over 150,000 ozs per month @ 38 operational costs per oz--no doubt JD would be able to find something bogus or negative about those figures. When the host asked him what he saw POG doing for the next few years, I was a little taken aback by his conservative figures--300 for next 2 yrs, then increasing to 325-50. Still very cognizant & concerned about CB overhang.

I've made some good gains on PDG, but went short on Fri. Must admit I'm a little uncomfortable & have a very close buy stop. Who knows--trees did grow almost to the sky for equity investors, maybe the long suffering GBs turn is here.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:55 - ID#153102)
@Mr Mick So, the Moon Walk happened as represented because somebody
you trust says it did. That's your whole reason for believing what you saw was real ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 16:58 - ID#413156)
Maybe a new use for Silver ?
NEW HORIZONS -- Silver used against bacteria
Bacterial infections are beginning to defy all antibiotics, and hospitals are finding bacteria increasingly difficult to eradicate as resistant strains develop, sometimes changing their natural structure to fight off antibiotics. The application of more toxic antibiotics is not an option, since these concentrated doses pose a threat to patients.
An answer to this dilemma may be silver, which de-activates virtually all known bacteria and extracellular viruses. The metal is also non-toxic to humans in low concentrations.
However, one difficulty in using silver is that it reacts with other systems in the body. For example, if it meets with chlorides, the silver becomes exhausted before reaching its target. This problem can be fixed by putting silver in a system that allows it to be released slowly, making some of it available further along its path.
A U.S. firm has introduced a new system in which ionic silver is contained in a polymer wrap that facilitates a controlled release. When placed in the desired area, the polymer will maintain silver's antimicrobial efficacy without reacting to everything around it. This system, named Arglaes, has been available in Britain for two years and was recently approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as an antimicrobial barrier dressing for use in that country.
Arglaes has been used at a Kansas City hospital to control infections in young patients for whom other medical options had failed. In one case, in which a patient developed candida ( yeast infection ) in his chest, the silver dressing was used to heal the infection, as well as prevent its spread and the possibility of additional surgery.
- The preceding is an excerpt from Silver News, a publication of The Silver Institute, based in Washington, D.C.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:06 - ID#206235)
@ ROFLOL....Moon landing a hoax!

I love Kitco...sometimes the best comedy channel of all media. Just read a post from someone who actually BELIEVES that the Moon landing was all a hoax!!'s TOO TOO rich.....particularly for me, as I work in the industry of satellite manufacturing, and understand the complesxities of space / vacuum / unattenuated solar exposure etc. all too well...and have spoked to literally hundreds of folks over the years involved in the space program.

My my, the earth is FLAT don't you know, we have the proof, it's all there.....and if we sail too far....we'll fall right off'n the end of it!

Ohhhhahahahahah... I'm dyin here!


(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:10 - ID#413156)
No running shoes -No Moonwalk
Mozel  Everybody knows the Moonwalk was a fiction, If it were real all those astronauts would have been wearing Nike Air.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:19 - ID#266105)
and the wind cries Mary

Interviews- Nick Goodwin, George Milling-Stanley

'What is concerning me is that banks were actually lending out gold to these hedge funds to short it, that gold was being bought mainly by the jewelry industry and been converted into jewelry, not in bar form anymore. They've now got to start buying the gold back...'

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:23 - ID#412172)
Check out what happens to an analyst who actually does his job. He gets KO'd! This is not a free site but has a 30 day free trial, fast sign up ( 1 minute ) and looks like it has some VERY good writers/info! The analyst deserves a GOLD medal, BTW, Bart ( g ) !

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:34 - ID#190411)
@ SDRer
I have seen a few of your posts with references to "Panglossian", and "Dr. Pangloss". I am a literary twit; although I have a very slight notion of which you speak.
There is a body of work by another gentleman who would be most welcome at this time, a deceased old white guy, Albert J. Nock.
Might I assume that you are familiar with him?
I used to, and still do occaisionally give people copies of his work. I bought several copies of his "Memoirs of a Superfluous Man" to give to kindred spirits. I don't think that anyone reads anymore, as I have yet to get a comment on his stunning writing style.
There are no commentators in the press that have the education, wit, and expository powers that Mr. Nock, and a few others of his era had.

On gold; the next weeks will tell the tale. Golden harpoons through leviathan.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:41 - ID#266105)
ERLE/silver linings

It was then that I realized how little the destruction
of government meant compared to the destruction of the
prestige of government. Nock

Thank you Mr. Clinton.

To the beach.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:43 - ID#250121)
Pan me no gloss, but pan me some gold in this "The best of all possible wurlds"
Not a new application for silver, apologose for quoting myslef, but it beats re-typing-----

Date: Mon May 19 1997 21:14 aurator ( DO DA APO CALYPSO .......... NOT ) :
However silver is awell known anti-biotic. I have read that one reason that Spanish & Portuguese sailors ( think of Quiros, Torres and Mandaa, Vasco de Gama the great 15th & 16th Cent explorers ) were healthier than their British and Dutch counterparts during the centuries of European exploration ( OK and exploitation ) is because of their habit of placing silver coins the barrels of drinking water. The silver has anti- bacterial properties that keep the water comparatively fresh and bug free.

OK, so who's gonna stand up and say the Iraq war was a fraud too? Ha ha, no moon landing...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:43 - ID#153110)
Offer proof, if you can. I don't want to hear testimony. That holds no more water for me on this issue than the testimony of a Christian would hold for James the atheist.

Images are not proof. In fact, the photos contain evidence of the fraud.

Just explain the operation of a life support system in space and on the Moon. Using known principles of science. I suggest you study a vacuum thermos before you start your explanation lest you be ridiculed in your turn.

Who Cares?
(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:50 - ID#242328)
George - Greenspan's last appearance

I agree. I saw Greenspan's testimonty to Congress last week.

Man, he looked like... well, like he knew it was all over.

I have to admit, Japan is looking impossible to fix now.

Greenspan looked like a man with a heavy conscience.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:50 - ID#206235)
@ RJ...Phil Diehl, Director U.S. Mint
Just catching up and enjoyed your post on your dinner with the American Eagle crowd including Phil Diehl.

Recently I was embroiled in controversy in a non Kitco net venue ( hard to believe I know... ) and in a letter to the editor exchange in Coin World. I was defending Phil Diehl's innovative policies re the Platinum program, particularly the low mintage Proofs.

The detractors I was debating had been hypercrticial of "High prices" and "Rip off's" from the mint re that program....absurd in my view considering the Plat Proof Eagles were a quick sellout and proceeded to go way up in the aftermarket almost immediately. Absolute proof that they weren't "Overpriced".

To make a long story longer...Phil Diehl had seeb my letter to the editor in "Coin World" and sent me a lengthy personal thank you letter. Something I thought was extraordinary, for someone in his position to do.

It just re-inforces my belief, that this guy is in touch with those who pay his salary, responsive to what's happening, and not the usual Govt.beurocratic stumblebum.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:51 - ID#153110)
@aurator OK, you've had your laugh. Now, step up to the challenge with proof.
Knowledge is golden, is it not ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:56 - ID#45173)
mozel my friend
Let's put the moon walkas hoax theory through a quick reality checker:

1 ) Can you identify a clear motive and objective of the perpetrator of the hoax?
2 ) Is the cost achieving the objective of the hoax greater than the benefit?
3 ) Might the same objective have been achieved by some less costly and elaborate means?

I get no, yes, and yes to these questions, which equals zero on my probablility score sheet.

I have deep doubts about my government, but I do not credit them with the intelligence and competence to pull off such a fabulous hoax. As hard as it was to put a man on the moon, it would be even harder to fake it.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 17:58 - ID#190411)
It, ( the porker ) , is obviously a decoration. If there was a gold standard, how in hell could you get those things out of an automatic teller machine?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:06 - ID#153110)
Why do you want to change the issue ? Why do you want to divert us from objective, reasoned, scientific certainty into subjective, political probabilities ? The burden of proof rightfully lies on those who affirmatively state there was a Man on the Moon.

But, to comment on your diversionary line, how hard and how expensive is it to make a movie with special effects ? And did the presentation of the claimed feat raise or lower the prestige of any groups and institutions ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:06 - ID#206235)
@ Mozel
Mozel...puhhlease...I don't mean to be disrespectful or get into anotehr pissing contest with you as we had a few months ago over that medical issue.

But as to a lengthy and detailed dissertation on how environmental concerns are overcome in space travel, specifically with the Moon program, my information would primarily anecdotal since I am involved with non manned craft, not manned flight. Even a cursory study of the issue reveals however, that the Spacesuits worn for any extra vehicular excursion, are rather exotic and environmentally controlled.

Like the folks who believed that flight itself was impossible and against all known laws of physics, those who believed electricity was an illusion, those who believed the splitting of the atom was a hoax, et al..there will always be whacko conspiracy theorists.

For me...proof enough exists in that men of integrity....tens of thousands of them in fact...including several of whom I have met, worked with, and spoken with in detail...who previously worked on the NASA program earlier in their careers.....participated in the that program. These men would laugh you out of the room if you proposed that it was all an elaborate hoax / coverup.

Conspiricies exists sometimes..... but one of this scale, involving the co-opting of honesty on the scale of tens of thousands, is not possible without it eventually being "blown". People talk. Ask Monica.

You might as well argue that reality isn't what it seems and we're all living in a "Truman's world" faked by space aliens. As I have said so many times here...extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

YOUR extraordinary claim that tens of thousands of engineers and scientists participated in a mass fraud and coverup, and none have leaked it.....requires extraordinary proof before it should even be considered a serious topic of debate.

You have offered no proof except someone's unsubstantiated allegations made on yet another whacko website. Allegations that fly in the face of all reason, all objective evidence, and all firsthand eyewitness accounts to the contrary.

Your contention is not one that is worthy of serious consideration or debate.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:07 - ID#119358) cheeeeeeeze.........
Are you talkin' about how a thermos bottle knows what to keep cold and what to keep hot? To this day I am mystified, no doubt. ingenious.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:07 - ID#341234)
To: EJ
Your arguments against the moon walk conspiracy are solid. You did forget one basic rule of debate, however: NEVER ARGUE WITH A FOOL.

I have said before that I do not think a recession would be good for gold because of reduced jewelry demand. I am now wondering how much demand for physical could be caused by hedge fund short covering and reduction in central bank leasing. Any thoughts?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:09 - ID#250121)

I have alluded before to my premise, which is ultimately both the scientific method ( therefore scientific proof ) and religion ( therefore religious proof ) depend upon an article of belief.....

You said:
"the Moon Walk happened as represented because somebody you trust says it did. That's your whole reason for believing what you saw was real ?"

Substitute Resurrection or Virgin birth for "Moon Walk" and I think you'll understand what I mean.

However, if your postulation that the moon walks note walkS are fraud, then one of the prime weaknesses of maintaining a fraudulent conspiracy is easily exposed. A fraud depends upon keeping a secret. How well a secret is kept depends, at least in part, on how many people are involved in the secret.

The number of people involved in not just the moon walks themselves, but also the technicians who supervised at NASA, the engineers who built the craft and analysed them afterwards, all these people, together with goodness knows how many US army, airforce, and security staff would have to be in this conspiracy.

The great advantage of the conspiracy of the resurrection was that noone knew about it until early christians started to right about it two or more hundred years after the event.

It is, after all, just a matter of belief, and I choose occam's razor every time.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:09 - ID#252150)
Aurator@I will say that the Iraq war was not only a fraud but abysmally
immoral & cowardly. IMO, absolutely no valor or honour accrued to the most powerfull Countries in the world that ganged up on a 3rd world Country & made life a living hell for millions of innocent people.

Noam Chomsky accurately called it the most cowardly war in history.

When I think of Gen Schwartscopf & all the pompous jerks taken credit for slaughtering 100s of thousands of Iraqis who were trying to surrender I'm still revulsed.

I have a ffeling that that cowardly act led by the supposed home of the free precipitated a decline in morals & standards that will eventually destroy the U.S. & virtually all of the Western Counties that were aligned with them.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:11 - ID#206235)
Silver..... Fly me to the Mooooon!
By the light....of the SILVERY Moooooon

It's so encouraging to come home from travel, ( on an Airline that's held up magically by skyhooks ) and see that Comex inventory is dropping like a stone. ( if indeed gravirty exists ) ....

Silver will soon fly. SSC shares are gonna soar. Ditto SSRIF, PAASF.

I love it....


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:12 - ID#343449)'cane.............

why are we in europe?....surely not the soviet threat..mmmmmmmm

awaken.......and listen to your eyes.......they are screaming!!!!!!!


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:14 - ID#206235)
The Lunatic is on the Grass....
Hmmm, I'm strating to wonder about this lunar influence stuff. After all, seemingly intelligent minds here at Kitco are alternately claiming that

a ) Eclispses cause mythical stock market crashes and

b ) Our Moon trips were all pretend.

On the other hand, them astronaut type guy's didn't bring back any Green cheese now did they? Where's the green cheese if they really went there, huh? huh? ( Ooops..I found it, in my refrigerator! )


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:14 - ID#153110)
So, after all your ridicule, all you offer for proof is nothing but testimonial anecdote. The burden of proof is on those who affirm. You have affirmed Man was on the Moon. Prove it by some evidence other than testimony and images. ( As I say, the images offer evidence to the contrary anyway. )

If I said I believed the Earth was flat with no other evidence or reason than that my Uncle John told me, you would laugh. Well, I laugh at you because you say you believe Man was on the Moon with no other evidence or reason than that you were told so by your Uncle Sam.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:15 - ID#43349)
If true, very bullish for the stock market

Date: Sat Sep 26 1998 13:41
Donald ( ALL the money in ALL the Money Market Funds is $1.276 trillion. LTCM problem is $1.25 trillion. ) ID#26793:

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:16 - ID#335379)
Hello Bugal /LGB perhaps you could discuss the issues and uses of black body/ white body and radiant
heat in better form than I in response to Mr. Mozel. I too have worked with Sattaliteand am completely aware of the use of these principals to remove heat from them using radiator panels. I read the argumaent for the fakery and found it lacking in true technical detail. Apart from this stories assertions heat generating sources DO cool off in space through radiating, not convection or conduction.
Explain, ( if not accused of being fake also ) the intense cooling effect experienced by the Apollo 13 command crew.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:16 - ID#341312)
How was it done?
Mozel, I'm not sure what you mean when you say explain cooling. Why do you think the moon walk was a fraud? They used space suits. The purpose of the suit is to provide a sustainable environment for human life inside the suit, basically oxygen gas at about 1 atm or 14.7 psi and a temperature of around 60 deg F or so. Outside the suit is a vacuum, or nothing at all at near absolute zero ( around -450 deg F if memory serves. ) The suit retains the heated oxygen so that one can survive in an environment that would be almost instantaneously fatal otherwise. The details in engineering a suit would be quite complex ( tearproof yet flexible construction, insulation, portable power to run the whole thing and provide communication, etc ) but the principle is fairly simple. Why does all this sound like a fraud to you? It was a tremendous technical accomplishment that took probably millions of man-years to achieve. Now we have people living in space for months at a time. All we need is a breakthrough in physics on the level of Einstein's relativity theory so that the incredibly long interstellar distances can be travelled in a reasonable amount of time and the next great age of exploration will begin. I wouldn't count on it the next couple of decades, though. Looks like a pretty rough road ahead what with a global financial meltdown in progress and that old Y2K "glitch" scheduled to kick in in about 3 months. Yep, Jan '99. Y2K czar Koskinen apparently has said that several states unemployment insurance programs will malfunction in about three months. Sort of like a "coming attractions" trailer at the movies. The Jo Anne effect in action. Info courtesy of So I'd guess our star hopping days are quite a ways in the future.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:17 - ID#43349)
When the majority affirm, the burden of proof is on those whoe deny.

It has always been thus.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:21 - ID#432112)
I see we're having shockingly intelligent intercourse here tonight!
Have you heard the one about the hedge fund that ate $#%!? heh heh heh! I hope they get seconds.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:23 - ID#206235)
@ Mozel
Any logical thinker will immediately spot the fundamental fallacy of your arguments. Essentially, the request that those who would refute you, "prove a negative". It would not be difficult, given the resources and persons I have contact with, to do the detailed research to refute your assertion, however, I would not even dignify the issue, by spending the time and energy on such a ridiculous quest. One might as well seek to prove to you that lead is not being made into Gold through alchemy.

However as I said, the burden of Proof is on you my friend, if you are to assert the preposterous. You don't meeet the burden. You're making yourself look ridiculous. Case closed.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:24 - ID#190411)
I haven't had time to check the webpage of the moonhoax thingy, but, I will, if I can get a tip on how to stretch a twenty-four hour day into at least thirty-six. ( counting on my fingers, it would take a relative velocity to earth frame of reference of approximately .998754xC ) .

In your 16:43 you mentioned the Roswell autopsy deal.

If the gommint had anything that they could scare the populace with, this would be it. Can you imagine the hype from the bureaurocracy, if this had any foundation? It would be NATO to the tenth power.

Your 16:36 is a fine piece. Squirrel will be impressed. I especially like the reference to gold foils. The stralian's have their plastic paper "money", I don't see any technical problems with a laminated gold money.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:24 - ID#45173)
Maybe it's a Y2K bug but when I just got a account balances receipt from the ATM down the street today it said I have 123 gold piglets, 56 gold oinkers, and 12 gold porcines. I swear I had more!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:25 - ID#153110)
If thinking makes you uncomfortable, I can sympathize. But, if you can stand it, get a vacuum thermos bottle and think about it.

I do affirm that governments can keep secrets. Not perftectly, to be sure, because it is always news when a government secret is discovered by the press to have been lost or stolen. But, there are thousands of government employees and thousands of government secrets and they keep them secret. Do you deny that ?

At this point on this Board, I submit that affirmation of the Man on the Moon Landing Fraud is on the same footing of proof as an affirmation of the Virgin Birth. Nobody can explain the life support for a Moon journey and Moon Walk in scientific terms.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:29 - ID#206235)
@ Nicodemus
Since you asked a serious question, ( as opposed to a ridiculous one ) ...

The way we protect out more sensitive systems on the variety of sattelites we manufacture, is through several means.

First, we have "thermal blankets" which consist of several layers of mylar and reflective materials. Second, since the satellite will have alternate "light and dark" sides that will experience the severe cold or extreme heat of direct solar radiation / blockage, we also have heat sources on board to keep things stabilized at a steady ( +/- 20 dgrees f ) temperature.

Radiating fins are used in areas where heat dissipation build up occurs due to the operation of the equipment itself...high power RF devices and such.

It really is no great feat at all to control the enviroment out there. I can't imagine anyone would make the argument that it is. As silly as believing that "Somatids" are the source of cancer I guess.

BTW.....Little Green men...we saw them but covered it up.....


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:32 - ID#153110)
Thanks for the read of the coin post. Your observations on the Roswell thing are exactly on point. So are the vaccuum thermos and the Moon walk.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:34 - ID#343449)

read of the past......and wonder on the future....

beware the bear.......there are 3 of them.....

stocks....russian.....and the somanabtch in the woods......

this one has plans after the un----damned dummies----bomb
kosovo......the russian nationalists are waiting for this take control of fractionated 'russia'....
and slam nato into the dirt over a centuries old conflict, where
life is crushed under-foot over?????......kosovo...the balkans....

time to become isolationist again.......heal our wounds..get rid
of ALL of the slick willies.........lawyers too......and re-claim
our short-lived legacy..time is waxing thin.....war next week in
the mid-east? maybe sooner.......sunday is a good day to die.

we need a warrior with a lions heart in the yellow house...
it would take either that, or a fool to take the office now...
we need a hero..with really huge garbanzos to slap the frog
sh!t out of the few for the benefit of the many.....

career politicians would be hunted as the scum they are....
lawyers would be made to chase them...for no other reason than
it would just be fun!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:35 - ID#343449)

conspiracies?? in the media??? hell yes!

read on.........

sorry dogs.........

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:35 - ID#250121)
Manhole - not just a particularly good album from Patti Smith?
As long as you're about, perhaps, you or someone else in the know could confirm this story I heard couple of weeks ago:

Apparently the first object to leave both the gravitational attraction of the earth and the solar system was a manhole cover. The first ( ? ) under-ground nuclear explosion during the early fifties, a nuclear device was detonated in a deep and narrow pit which was capped with a manhole cover. Slow motion cameras are said to have captured the manhole cover "blast off" later calculations reveal that the manhole had sufficiently velocity to escape the solar system. It is, of course, still heading "out there"

Is this true? Cos it makes a good story anyway..

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:35 - ID#45173)
@Fred and mozel
Fred, I defer to the experts here on the likelihood that the dollar price of gold will rise or fall due to the hedge fund debacle. Gollum seems to be getting more bullish on the stock market every day and has more insight than I into the hedge fund/gold lease outcome.

mozel, keeping a bunch of hoax participants quiet for 30 years is much harder than you think.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:36 - ID#119358)
@Motown was involved in the FRAUD...........Barry Gordy
is CIA.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:37 - ID#206235)
@ Jeffrey Sachs....WSJ quote... GOLDstandard
Yesterday's Wall St. Journal had an article about currency crises worldwide. One Harvard economist quoted, the famous Jeffrerey Sachs...a rather well respected economist, made this quote that I just HAD to share with GoldBugs. In reference to Brazil, Argentina, et al...

"Mr. Sachs vigorously objects to controls on the outflow of money, it will cause damage to the countries that impose them.......stop defending the "real".....let it fall......" ( and the Sachs quote GoldBugs will love to hate )

"One by one countries are being knocked off the dollar standard. Those who are pushed off in times of crises-like those who stayed on the GOLD standard until the bitter end - are hurt most".

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:40 - ID#153110)
You have affirmed that Man did a journey to the Moon and a Moon Landing. The burden of proof is on those who affirm. That is you, rocket scientist.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:40 - ID#384350)
EJ - 50 yr. War Cycles
Every 50 years there seems to be a war of some sort to spur the borrowing into existance of new money to get the economy going. 50 years after WWI was the 1960's. There was the Viet Nam War, the War on Poverty ( LBJ's Great Society ) and the NASA space program.

As to your Questions:

1 ) Can you identify a clear motive and objective of the perpetrator of the hoax?

Yes, to have massive govt spending to create money into existance. The hoax placates the masses and assures the continuance of the Program.

2 ) Is the cost achieving the objective of the hoax greater than the benefit?

Not to the usury bankers and for the preservation of the System.

3 ) Might the same objective have been achieved by some less costly and elaborate means?

Again, Usury bankers were looking for a costly expenditure to get money circulating.

Also, as James points out the Gulf War ( 50 years after WWII ) was indeed a fraud in many aspects.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:42 - ID#431200)
McGuire 68

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:43 - ID#275194)
The latest on our dirtbag, I mean scumball, excuse me, hitman, sorry
criminal, oh jeeeess, you know!!!!

SAT SEP 26 1998 16:04:42 ET
x x x x x


Elizabeth Ward Gracen, star of a new TV show and former Miss America, now claims that
Clintonistas waged a campaign of terror that scared the hell out of her.

Gracen, in Toronto, gives an exclusive interview to NEW YORK POST columnist Steve Dunleavy for
Sunday editions, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

"I spent a small fortune hiring investigators to investigate the investigators of the White
House who I honestly believe were chasing me to head off my story," Gracen tells Dunleavy.

Gracen previously revealed how she had a sex fling with Gov. Bill Clinton in 1983.

"I really should not be saying these things," a tearful Gracen tells the POST, in an interview
that has caught the eye of the White House -- even before publication

For the first time -- Gracen describes how she was terrorized during the discovery period in
the Paula Jones sexual harassment case and later during the Ken Starr investigations.

"Yes, I was physically scared," says Gracen.

"We are talking about the presidency. There were always veiled threats [made against me]."

"I did nothing wrong except one stupid night a long time ago. But now this last year has become
very frightening."

Gracen describes a hotel room that was ransacked while she was hiding out in St. Martin.

"The gentleman looking after my room said he saw two men in suits enter the place and one man
in a suit waiting outside."

But Gracen said nothing was stolen!

"They were looking for tapes that did not exist."

Gracen offers no further details on the hotel episode.

"Then there were the telephone calls," she explains.

"To me, to my parents. I was in an undisclosed location but the calls found me.

"It was pretty much the same kind of call. Get out of town before I get hit with a subpoena...
between the calls telling me to get out of town for my own good and the calls talking about
smear tactics, I got scared."

Gracen does not reveal who made the threat calls.




(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:47 - ID#26793)
Yours at 18:15. How do you see that as bullish for the stock market? I would say most bearish.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:48 - ID#250121)
now don't go crabby on us, thinking one of the most difficult activities homer sapiens engages in. I was blessed with a pa who forced me to think for myself from an early age, of course, sometimes it p!ssed him off when I wouldn't take his assertions for truth. I shall spend some time later with your THOUGHTS.

I do not deny that governments keep thousands secrets, nor that thousands of govt employees know these secrets, but here we are talking ONE secret with thousands of people in the conspiracy. I just can't *believe* that even one of those thousands hasn't blown the whistle yet.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:49 - ID#206235)
@ Puetz....Speaking of Wall Street
I noticed that the New highs to new lows ratio improved by about 300% this week. And that several other strong indicators might lead one to believe that the stock market is showing healthy signs of a bottom ..and may be posied for a renewed push to the 9000 level and beyond over the next few months.

And all this in the face of the Clinton scandal, Japanese market meltdown, and LTCM meltdown...any one of which should have provided ample fodder for a weak scared market to CRASH and burn......

Those who follow Bearish guru's and buy PUT options...will be sorely disappointed over the next few months. ( Not to mention, outright pissed off as their investment monies disappear! )

Yeah yea..I know, market manipulation....bailout of highly leveraged hedge funds with only millionaires as investors ( which we can all agree is ridiculous in a "free" market ) ,,,blah blah blah......And I just KNOW that more eclipses are around the corner, not to mention Full and new Moons, and October...the SCARIEST month of all.

Nevertheless..... personal income in U.S. is highest it's been in a decade. The economy is as strong as it's EVER been.... the market is oversold and showing excellent signs of strength and health.

New highs ahead Puetz. Still time to sell your PUTS and buy some CALLS. The crash / depression is 2018 like I told you before.

Repeat these 4 alpha numeric characters after me....

401K, 401K, 401K......

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:52 - ID#206235)
@ Kapex
Funny how CLinton can't seem to keep ANY of his secrets and conspiracies quiet from the likes of Drudge, the media, et al, in spite of his concerted campaign to silence them all...and even having about 95% of the media on his side!

He really MUST be inept as a leader.... considering that earlier leaders were able to maintain the total silence of tens of thousands re the Moon landing hoax!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:55 - ID#153110)
@Mr Nicodemus
Ah, ha. Here, at least, is someone to engage the scientific principles involved.

Can the human animal radiate enough heat in a vacuum to survive without cooling from convection and conduction ? How large a device would be required to provide life support for the animal ? How would such a convection or conduction life support device operate to dispel heat in a vacuum ?

How much radiant heat per square centimeter is the surface of the moon exposed to from the sun ?

We are not in earth orbit on a journey to the Moon. The conditions are not the same.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:56 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro
Nasa is real. Lots of people working on stuff. I've met them. one of the things they do is launch actual rockets. No kidding. I've seen them. They are really big and loud. No, not the movie. The actual rockets. At 3am they light up the sky like it's the middle of the day. From the press center the wave of sound and heat is f*cking scary. You think you're gonna die. Cool.

And this show is created so that the gov't can spend money? Aren't there less elaborate schemes the government could come up with to spend money?


(Sat Sep 26 1998 18:56 - ID#250121)
et al
didja see my post below? any comment?

Date: Sat Sep 26 1998 18:35

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:01 - ID#153110)
@EJ It's easier if most of them don't think it was a fraud. Compartmentalize.
Forget conspiracy. Somebody prove the affirmative.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:05 - ID#153110)
@NASA is real. Rockets are real Earth Orbit is Real. The shuttle is real. Voyager is real.
But, none of that is a Moon Walk.

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:06 - ID#345321)
Mozey, baby, this one will tell you about the space suit NASA used.......

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:07 - ID#290172)
Naughty Mozel-

expecting folk NOT to applaud and save TinkerBelle

it is all theatre
no doubt why Voltaire, the estimable Mr. Carroll and others
who wander around with pointed sticks
come so oft to mind
willing suspension of disbelief Mozel
is the play not worth the payment?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:08 - ID#275194)
Seeing's how we are on the subject of NASA! My wife, myself and our two
daughters were flying to Orlando on April 3rd or 4th of 1997. Were cruising along when the Captain comes over the loudspeaker and says to look out the left side of the jet. As we looked out to the left ( we had window seats on that side ) we saw the space shuttle launching. It was awesome!!! It had just taken off and we were in a good position to see it tilt away and watch it disapear into the blue sky.
It was the Highlight of our week, and it was just starting. Cool Stuff!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:09 - ID#275194)
But now I'm begining to wonder if it really happened!!!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:10 - ID#45173)
BUGal -- Stock market oversold
You may be right. All those sheep holding onto their 401K and Mutual Fund investments "for the long term." Nice buffer. One problem.

The premise of their investments in these equity funds is that the investments are low risk. These are not speculators playing with mad money. These sheep have retirement money in these accounts. They think their money is in a savings account that earns 18% a year.

The sheep are beginning to smell danger. All this talk of "global meltdown" and "dropping interest rates" and so forth. What the hell's going on here?

The pump is primed for the sheep to exit. Risk-averse investors do not bahave like risk-proofed investors when the market falters. All that's needed is a catylist. It's AG's #1 goal to NOT be that catylist.


Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:11 - ID#345321)
Mozey, here is the Shuttle life support system, Apollo was a simplified version of it

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:13 - ID#384350)
Sure NASA is real. Sure the technology is there for people in NY to watch the Australian Open direct from Melbourne. But with the huge strides that have been made in the past 30 years, why haven't there been repeat manned-journeys to the moon?

The Usury bankers need to have money perpetually borrowed into existence. If not, the System collapses. So we have $600 toilet seats etc.

Less elaborate ways than a Space Program? Sure we can have "free healthcare", pay people not to work, pay farmers not to farm etc, but in the end the threat of a deflationary collapse requires drastic measures like WAR.

Again the fact that the masses Believe that the race to the moon was a success assured the continuation of the costly but beneficial program.

The point is that Govts and more specifically Usury Bankers conspire and defraud the people to keep their Empire intact.

PS Did you see the episode of The Simpsons, Homer in Space?

Mr. Mick
(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:15 - ID#345321)
Lunar Rock Sample at the Smithsonian, Moze..................

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:15 - ID#119358)
@Bob Dylan........everybody must get stoned..........

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:19 - ID#43349)
Obviously, no body CAN prove the affirmative. You have already said you will accept no testimony, no tapes, no evidence of any kind.

So what?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:23 - ID#348129)
I'll be selling Gold to SACHS at $10,000. an ounce, if he catches me in a good mood ...........

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:23 - ID#26793)
"Right now, we have no need to devalue" says China. Spending $1.2 trillion on Public Works

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:25 - ID#335379)
HEllo mozel: I do not have all the abilities to fully argue the point and I do have a big project to
get to but here goes...
A vacuum thermos on earth only insulates the differrence of less than 150 degrees.
If a source of heat is placed in space it will ultimately cool down through radiation.
a proccess where heat in the form of speeding attoms are continualy slowing as there is no energy to speed them up again.
2nd law of thermal dynamics. Space is a perfect radiator. And I mean perfect.
With deep space at -800C this process takes almost no time for human bodies or water to freeze.
Another solution to the problem would be a very slow release of Liquid Nitrogen
as an evaporative coolant.
White body/ Black body radiation.
Sir mozel have you ever seen a light powered motor? Typical device in a vacuum shaped like a light bulb. The light hits the black side is absorbed and converted to heat on the white side and "radiated" energy causes rotation of theses 4 panels.
this experiment works in dead space as well as a earthbound vacuum.
Chosing colors and materials for the desired effect in space is detailed but not impossible. In my dad's day they circulated silicon jelly to heat and cool components in sattalites to and from the sun side and space side of the craft.
Nicodemus, Go gold pullese...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:25 - ID#190411)
Yeah, Bugger(LGB, Liberty, BuGal)
Perhaps you can hum the tune "Swiss Gold Blues".
That is far more ludicrous than any moonhoax crapola, or any other voodoo economics spewage that I have encountered in my tawdry life.

Jeffrey Sachs road tour through SE Asia, down to stralia, New Zealand, a swing through Chosen, then down through China. He must be tuckered out by now, but, the good soldier heads west, crossing the former CCCP, often stopped by striking railworkers and miners that haven't been paid for eight months. All give the central finger salute as the Harvard coach of goodness and Knowledge.
Throngs await the paper pope as he dispenses the nostrums of the hallowed "Wall Street".
Singing joyfully,"We're In the Money", the assembled masses count the newly issued paper from their wallets. All agree that they have never had so much money.
Mr. Sachs dismisses some of the anti-semitic taunts from the hecklers, and reboards his coach; festooned with helpful advertisements for mutual funds.
Jeffrey momentarily recalls the anti-Jewish sentiment of the riff-raff, but guffaws any suggestion that there might be a new pogrom.
Little Jeffrry is a trifle sleepy now. After calculating gold lease rates for almost an hour, he lays his precious head upon the pillow.
It's October 9 1998 when Jeffrey pulls into the station in Zurich.
A gnarled, rather beaten looking man steps to the coach step.
Jeffrey Sachs sneers at the bent gentleman,and at the tacky goldish beetle ornament on the lapel.
Mr Sachs has his porter hand the luggage to the oldman, who lets it drop to the oily tracks.
"I am here to collect the gold that you have borrowed. Have you any assets?"

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:27 - ID#153110)
@Mr Mick
The link explains life support at 140,000 feet, at 100,000 feet , and at ground level. Did I miss the part where NASA says a simplified version was used on the Moon Journey & Moon Walk ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:28 - ID#119358)
I know about a dozen peopleo who, in the last month, have shut off fund flow to their retirement accounts....most have matching funds incentives for stock purchase. Of course, I can not prove this has actually happened. And I seriously doubt that I posted this.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:28 - ID#350145)
gold coin sales-our rossetta stone?
friday's wall street journal states gold coin sales are running at historical levels. 86 was last big year ( this year looks to be biggger ) and gold hit $500 in 87. seems to me these sales will persist and act like a magnet constantly pulling gold and silver up regardless of the traders tricks. i think the old short game is up. sometimes there are too many variables to figure, but if i had to pick one good variable to focus on, fast gold sales to John Q Public, caused, i believe, by an intractable problem, would be right there on the top of my list.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:31 - ID#43349)
Commonly held belief
Some people think that to convict a man of murder and have him sentenced to the electric chair, you have to prove beyond all shadow of a doubt that he committed the act.

Actually, all you have to do is convince a judge and jury.

Each side would present it's case and the decision would be made.

The defense night argue that all the evidence was faked. They might claim that all the witnesses were part of a conspiracy. They might hold to their belief to the bitter end, but if they could not back up their claims the evidence would stand.

In this case of mozel's each side is invited to present it's case. The case for consists of tapes, interviews with the returning astronauts, and a great body of supporting evidence.

The case against, as nearly as I can make out, is some skeptical comments by some on the other side. So far I have seen no witnesses to the contrary, no tapes of evidence being faked, no interviews with astronauts admitting a hoax. Nothing.

I am afraid that so far the case for is WAY aheas of the case against.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:32 - ID#153110)
@Mr Nicodemus
Thank you for engaging. Can we agree that deep space is a vacuum ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:33 - ID#26793)
India feels it will be immune from a Market Meltdown.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:38 - ID#35757)
I can't beleive you are wasting bandwidth over this. There is a way to verify however. The displacement of an object falling in a gravitational field is given by s = 1/2 g tt ( one half g t squared ) where s is tye displacement, g is the acceleration due to gravity ( 32 feet per second per second here on earth, by a great deal less on the mooon ) , and t is the time in seconds. Substituting 1 second for t the formula tells us that on earth, neglecting air resistance, an object will fall 16 feet in one second,64 feet in two seconds etc. Examine the film of the astronauts jumping up and down and kicking sand around on the moon. Get out a stop watch, estimate distances, plug the estimates into the formula and determine the value of g in the equation. It will not be 32 feet per second per second. Conclusion - The astronauts were not on earth. Anticipated objection: The film was slow motion. The astronauts are moving about very quickly in the films that I have seen. If this is slow motion, they must have had the flash in those space suits.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:40 - ID#190411)
at everyone
I posted my dopey comment which took forever.
I walked away from the computer, as I am woking out in the shop.




(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:42 - ID#252150)
Greenspan no genius@I think that in many quarters AG gets too much credit
for his fin/economic acumen. From what I can recall, his career on Wall St. as a consultant was rather undistinguished. I don't think he ever made a lot of money through mkt smarts & seem to remember some of his economic forecasts being mediocre at best. The people/sheeple counting on him to guide this fin/economic sham to a safe landing will probably be in for a major disappointment. IMO, he is just a puppet of the major Banks/institutions & has about as much credibility & omnipotence as the wizard of OZ.

I'm greatly amused at the righteous indignation that Mozel is able to elicit from some individuals who consider themselves to be paragons of reason.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:44 - ID#348129)
@NY TIMES / LTCM --- Excuse me, but how the hell can this be LEGAL ???
"used its $2.2 billion in capital as collateral to buy $125 billion in securities, and then used those securities as collateral to enter into exotic financial transactions worth $1.25 trillion"

Hedge Fund's Bets Top $1.2 Trillion


The speculative investment fund rescued by a consortium of Wall Street banks this week made complex bets on international financial markets with a total value drastically higher than previously estimated, financiers who studied its books said Friday.

They said the fund, Long-Term Capital Management, used its $2.2 billion in capital from investors as collateral to buy $125 billion in securities, and then used those securities as collateral to enter into exotic financial transactions worth $1.25 trillion.

Long-Term Capital's portfolio had been previously estimated at $90 billion.

Using such a small amount of money to gamble on transactions worth far more is extraordinary even in Long-Term Capital's risky world of hedge funds, the largely unregulated pools of investment funds now receiving increased Government scrutiny. How and why bankers who dealt with Long-Term Capital allowed it to make such astonishing bets remains unclear. [News analysis, page B1.]

The financiers who studied Long-Term Capital's books said the hedge fund had sold some positions since the end of August, reducing the total size of its holdings. Before it was taken over by the consortium of banks and brokerage houses Wednesday, Long-Term Capital also used up much of its capital base to pay loans. Those people said the hedge fund's capital base had shrunk to $600 million and its securities holdings to about $100 billion before the creditors took control of the fund with a $3.5 billion bailout package.

But the look at the accounting books of Long-Term Capital at the end of August provides a glimpse into its operating style.

It also shows the extent to which the hedge fund's backers, including many of the leading Wall Street investment banks, allowed the fund's star manager, John W. Meriwether, to amass such an enormous speculative portfolio.

In part because of Long-Term's Capital huge exposure to financial markets, and worries that a collapse could destabilize financial markets around the world, banks that did business with the fund elected to arrange a bailout and assume control of it rather than let the fund fail.

Some Wall Street executives said the total quantity of securities held by Long-Term Capital would have been difficult to sell. That is especially true since the securities were used as collateral for the $1.25 trillion in derivatives and forward contracts, in many cases bets on the direction of interest rates and bond prices.

The fact that Long-Term Capital took huge risks through derivatives and forward contracts does not mean that its collapse would have resulted in losses equivalent to their total value. But the sheer size of the fund's bets made them difficult to unravel,without unsettling the markets that Meriwhether gambled in. Especially when the market is moving against the trades, as they were in Long-Term Capital's case, selling its derivatives and futures contracts might have proven prohibitively costly for the banks that had money at stake.

To offer a comparison, when the venerable British investment bank Barings P.L.C. collapsed three years ago, a rogue trader in its ranks had gambled on changes in prices of Japanese Government bonds and the direction of Japanese interest rates through financial instruments worth$30 billion. When the bonds and interest rates moved in the other direction of the bets Barings had made and those contracts tumbled in value, Baringsfaced losses of $1 billion and collapsed.

Long-Term Capital's total exposure to financial market bets was about 40 times that of Barings and it did not have much more capital than Barings did.

In a further sign of the Government's concern over how Long-Term Capital's near-collapse happened, Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin announced late Friday that United States agencies responsible for supervising financial markets would conduct a study on hedge funds and their relationships with creditors.

In a statement issued after markets had closed, Rubin said the Treasury Department had been closely following developments related to Long-Term Capital. Congressional Republicans also announced they would hold hearings exploring all aspects of the hedge fund industry, including regulation and supervision.

In comments earlier Friday, Rubin disputed the idea that hedge funds should be regulated like banks and put under some form of Government control. "I don't think it is a question of reining people in," Rubin told reporters in Washington. But he said Long-Term Capital's situation had raised some concerns.

"There are questions about disclosure and other issues, and my guess is there will be a lot of discussion and debate about that," Rubin said.

The fallout from Long-Term Capital's near collapse extended to Europe, with Dresdner Bank A.G. of Germany and Crdit Suisse Group of Switzerland detailing losses from investment firm, which is based in Greenwich, Conn.

But neither had exposure comparable to UBS A.G., Europe's largest bank, which took a $689 million charge against third-quarter earnings to write down its stake in the hedge fund, an adjustment that will probably cause the bank to post a loss for the quarter.

Some European markets were also off sharply. United States stock markets fell in early trading but recovered to post a solid gain. Investors were nervously watching developments to determine whether other big players in the universe of 3,000 hedge funds, many of which had bond market positions not unlike those of Long-Term Capital, would face pressure from banks to sell securities to pay off margin loans, potentially weakening the already-fragile world bond market.

Peter Bakstansky, a spokesman for the New York Federal Reserve, which arranged the private-sector rescue of Long-Term Capital, was cautious when asked if there might be other hedge funds that were at risk or if the bailout of Long-Term Capital had succeeded. But he indicated that initial signs were good. "The firm is operating," he said, "and the market reaction at this point seems to be reasonable."

The New York Fed pulled together the consortium of private banks and brokerage houses early this week to rescue Long-Term Capital. Fed officials said they feared that a sudden liquidation of the hedge fund's holdings might send shock waves through the world financial system.

But the Fed's quick action to save the hedge fund from collapse has raised other questions. Some Wall Street bankers say privately that they felt strong-armed by the Government into putting up the $3.5 billion for the bailout. Bakstansky, the spokesman for the New York Fed, denies this, saying some banks chose not to participate in the bailout and that the Fed had no way of forcing them to partake.

But perhaps the main question raised early on in the takeover of Long-Term Capital was how so many well-regulated and risk-conscious banks could have leant so much money to a single speculative investor, albeit one with a stellar track record for producing outsized return in recent years.

Even if hedge funds escape direct regulation as a result of the Long-Term Capital bailout, regulators seem certain to scrutinize the links between banks and hedge funds. Banks provide much of the capital the hedge funds need to take highly leveraged positions in stock, bond and currency markets.

The Financial Services Authority of Britain has ordered 55 banks and other financial institutions to provide information on their exposure to Long-Term Capital and to other hedge funds. Swiss bank regulators asked UBS for details about its involvement in Long-Term Capital.

The consortium of financial institutions participating in the rescue announced Friday that the duration of their recapitalization was three years, suggesting that they expected a slow resolution of the firm's trading positions.

An oversight committee is being formed at the direction of the consortium to include representatives of Goldman, Sachs; Merrill Lyunch; J.P. Morgan; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; Travelers Group, and UBS.

The oversight committee, which now controls 90 percent of the equity in Long-Term Capital, has assumed authority over all aspects of the fund's operations.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:44 - ID#368244)
@ Studio

Bugger has prove that Bill Clinton is a virgin , and that Hillary is actually a man in drag.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:47 - ID#43349)
Remeber the nights of seeing all the currencies in the red--except India? Tehy are in fine shape to continue buying the gold and silver which they are so fond of.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:50 - ID#119358)
@Isure....Of what?
Then how do we explain little Chelsea?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:51 - ID#368244)
@ Studio
Take a look at her, shes an alien !

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:53 - ID#250121)
chop wood, gather water
mozel is abolutely correct that the burden of proof for moon walking ( not of the Jacko variety ) is upon those who assert it. He does not have to prove the corollary and, in logic he can't.

However, it is not the purpose of this board to establish the proof, we all make up our minds depending upon our knowledge and belief. Just as one cannot prove nor disprove that angels dance on pins, the exercise of arguing they do or don't, and whether they fox-trot, tango or lambada is of little real value when you prick yourself sewing.

Let's continue with our discussion on Herstaat risk instead....

(Sat Sep 26 1998 19:56 - ID#119358)
@Isure......Of what?
I can't bear to look.

Are you heeding my warning that the little studios are running around your fair city this evenin'? I guess I better brush up on my coonarse. hod dam mon.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:02 - ID#26793)
How do you see the LTCM thing as bullish for the stock market? Can we debate that?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:03 - ID#43349)
"Checking out a hedge fund is considerably trickier than evaluating a mutual fund. Since a hedge fund is unregulated by the SEC, there is no prospectus, annual report, or other standard public disclosure."

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:05 - ID#384350)
The War in the Gulf
From former Intelligence Agent, Dr John Coleman's 1992 book on the Committee of 300.

Stop for a moment and consider how President Bush ordered the brutal slaying of 150,000 Iraqi troops, in a convoy of military vehicles carrying white flags, on their way back to Iraq under Geneva Convention rules of agreed disengagement and withdrawal. Imagine the horror of the Iraqi troops when, in spite of waving their white flags, they were mowed down by American aircraft. In another part of the front, 12,000 Iraqi soldiers were buried alive in trenches they occupied. Is that not MONSTROUS in the truest sense of the word? From where did President Bush get his orders to act in this MONSTROUS fashion? He got them from the Royal Institute for International Affairs ( RIIA ) who received its mandate from the Committee of 300, also known as the "Olympians."

Kissinger's role in destabilizing the United States by means of three wars, the Middle East, Korea and Vietnam, is well known, as is his role in the Gulf War, in which the U.S. Army acted as mercenaries for the Committee of 300 in bringing Kuwait back under its control and at the same time making an example out of Iraq so that other small nations would not be tempted to work out their own destiny.

HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH OFFICE. This is an Army research establishment dealing in "psychotechnology." Most of its personnel are Tavistock-trained. HUMRRO'S applied psychology courses are supposed to teach Army brass how to make the human weapon work. A good example of this is the manner in which soldiers in the war against Iraq were willing to disobey their field manual standing orders and bury 12,000 Iraqi soldiers alive. This type of brainwashing is terribly dangerous because today, it is applied to the Army, the Army applies it to brutally destroy thousands of "enemy" soldiers, and tomorrow the Army could be told that civilian population groups opposed to government policies are "the enemy."

Americans were conditioned to perceive Iraq as a threat and Saddam Hussein as a personal enemy of the United States. Such a conditioning process is technically described as "the message reaching the sense organs of persons to be influenced." One of the most respected of all pollsters is Committee of 300 member Daniel Yankelovich, of the company, Yankelovich, Skelley and White. Yankelovich is proud to tell his students that polling is a tool to change public opinion, although this is not original, Yankelovich having drawn his inspiration from David Naisbett's book "TREND REPORT" which was commissioned by the Club of Rome. In his book Naisbett describes all of the techniques used by public opinion makers to bring about the public opinion desired by the Committee of 300. Public opinion making is the jewel in the crown of the OLYMPIANS, for with their thousands of newscience social scientists at their beck and call, and with the news media firmly in their hands, NEW public opinions on almost any subject can be created and disseminated around the world in a matter of two weeks. This is precisely what happened when their servant George Bush was ordered to make war on Iraq. Within two weeks, not only the U.S. but almost the entire world public opinion was turned against Iraq and its President Saddam Hussein. These media change artists and news manipulators report directly to the Club of Rome which in turn reports to the Committee of 300 at whose head sits the Queen of England ruling over a vast network of closely-linked corporations who never pay taxes and are answerable to no one, who fund their research institutions through foundations whose joint activities have almost total control over our daily lives. Together with their interlocking companies, insurance business, banks, finance corporations, oil companies, newspapers, magazines, radio and television, this vast apparatus sits astride the United States and the world. There is not a politician in Washington D.C. who is not, somehow, beholden to it.

When those whose business it is to bring the truth to the American people that a private, well-organized little government inside the White House was busy committing one crime after another, crimes which attacked the very soul of this nation and the republican institutions upon which it rested, we were told not to bother the public with such things. "We really don't want to know about all this speculation," became a standard response. When the highest elected official of the land blatantly put U.N. law above the Constitution of the United States -- an impeachible offense, the majority accepted it as "normal." When the highest elected official of the land went to war without a Congressional declaration of war, the fact was censored out by the news media and, again, we accepted it rather than face the truth.

On May 27th, 1991, President Bush made a very profound statement, the thrust of which appears to have been totally misused by most political commentators: "The moral dimension of American policy requires us to chart a moral course through a world of lesser evils. That is the real world, not black and white. Very few moral absolutes." What else could we expect from a President who is most probably the most evil man ever to occupy the White House? Consider this in the light of his order to the military to bury alive 12,000 Iraqi soldiers. Consider this in the light of his ongoing war of genocide against the Iraqi people. President Bush was delighted to characterize President Saddam Hussein as the "Hitler of our times." He never bothered to offer a single scrap of proof. It was not needed. Because President Bush made the statement, we accepted it without question.

The United States went to war against a friendly nation that had been programmed to trust the Washington traitors. We accused President Hussein of the small nation of Iraq of all manner of evil, NONE OF WHICH WAS EVEN REMOTELY TRUE. We killed and maimed its children, we left them to starve and to die of all manner of diseases. In the same breath we sent the Bush emissaries of the Committee of 300 to Cambodia to RECOGNIZE THE EVIL MASS MURDERERS OF 2 MILLION CAMBODIANS, who were sacrificed by the Committee of 300's depopulation of cities experiment, which the big cities of the United States will experience in the not too distant future.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:05 - ID#368244)
@ Studio

Just scrolled back and saw that post, I will try and be careful and watch out for little Studio's .

I am off to the Parish fair to watch my daughter run barrels, catch you later.

LGB, just kidding....

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:08 - ID#250121)

Underline that, these derivatives are UNREGULATED ANYWHERE. They may appear to be bound by regulations in one jurisdiction, but because the counter parties can be "resident" in a host of other jurisdictions, they are, practically speaking, UNREGULATED, based on CONFIDENCE.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:09 - ID#344207)
How far down?
How far down does the comex silver inventory have to fall before we see a .50 to .75 raise???

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:09 - ID#335379)
Hello mozel: Space is not quite a vacuum but for the sake of convection or conduction arguments
it is. howerver one does not need "air" to thermally radiate. This occurs becuase of the lack of enough input of energy. Think of it as a man's body trying to heat the universe. His body would not stay warm on its own, it would run ot of energy to heat slower than it would radiate. The real problem to me in the space suit would
be attenuating the heat loss.
With "heating", use the sun's energy absorbtivly. Vacuum doesn't matter. Light travels through space and carries with it plenty of enrgy to heat while not being quickly absorbed in space. When it hits an object the light converts to infrared or heat. Wonderful properties of "wavicles".
Cooling in space is done by transfering warmth to a radiating surface.
Heating is done by collecting light.
Gold should be able to go to the moon

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:09 - ID#347447)
is anyone having trouble posting?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:10 - ID#43349)
Despite the anticipation of lowered interest rates, the market is very nervous about the derivatives/hedge fund fire in the hole.

If LTCF was such a monster that over 90% of the deivatives hedging in the market was tied up by it alone, then 90% of the problem overhanging the market has been seen and dealt with.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:10 - ID#290172)
May I introduce you to the short-term forward book?

2.2 Short-term forward cover
As this point in time the Reserve Bank only participates in the short-term forward market at its own initiative and on prices quoted in the market by authorised dealers. Thus there is no element of subsidy involved in the Reserve Bank's participation in the forward market. The Reserve Bank only participates in the forward market on a swap basis.

3.1 The most obvious advantages of using the forward book have been that, during periods in which the exchange rate was under pressure, inflation, domestic interest rates and the exchange rate were less volatile than would otherwise have been the case. forward cover

Take a look. This is a little teeny-tiny view of what they [banks] are going to be trying to land safely next week-
"At the end of February 1998, the mark-to-market of the short-term forward book reflected an unrealised loss of R464,5 million."

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:15 - ID#250121)
I've just had a vision of thousands of angels doing "The Chicken Dance" on a head of a pin.

I shall nurse that image for a while..

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:16 - ID#347447)
confession to a fraud
Brother Mozel's contentions of a Moon Walk Fraud were something I fought bitterly at first. Sure, I knew that if the Moon Walk was a fraud, not only could I never trust my government again, but then...where does that leave Michael Jackson. I tried to escape, I tried to rebut, and then Mozel pulled the old "thermos" trick on me. It was instant checkmake. Oh Lord, I confess...I don't KNOW how the damn vacuum thermos works. All I know is I put in hot, it comes out hot. I put in cold, it comes out cold.

But now I am going to bare my soul to you all. That time I "spent" in Vietnam in '66 and '67 - it was all a FAKE. Oh, can you all forgive me. Can you all forgive US. Yes, US - the entire armed forces of the United States were in on it. Well, at least a million of us. We were in Florida, drinking Martinis, tall frosty ones, and doing a lot of betting on silly things like dog racing. The most violent episodes we encountered were barroom fights in Tampa. It was a decent town then. It sucks now. Oh the shame of it. The worst part was getting into those grungy fatigues and putting all that fake blood, guts, and sh*t everywhere for the tv cameras ( the media was in on it. What a sales boost it was for them. Thanks to the Grucci family for supplying the fireworks, and the safeguards to allow us to get away with only one casualty ( a cherry bomb gave one GI a nasty burn on his left buttock during a party where...well, never mind.
OK, Ok, so I admit it now Moze. Vietnam was a HOAX. All one million of us, or more, who were "sent to Vietnam" have been silent up until now. But it's just too much for me to bear. And you'll have to believe me, Moze, unless you were in the jungles of Florida just outside Clewiston during those fateful years. Then you wont need to be convinced, will you?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:16 - ID#119358)
@auratOr........hickory smoked da' ribatives........yum yum.........
futhermore, they are off-balance sheet as far as the Fed is concerned. HuH?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:17 - ID#153110)
@morbius I can make a film show anything. Is deep space a vacuum ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:19 - ID#290172)
Sorry-- forward cover

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:20 - ID#290172)
You'll have to scroll UP the page...again, sorry...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:21 - ID#190411)
Message from Allan Greenspan,
"Good morning, children, can you say "Rogue Trader?"
"Little ones, some have behaved badly, but, I will not tolerate the recriminations."
" Darn, did I say," "I will not tolerate?" "Shame on me. I am as forgiving as can be. We are all together in this, all for one, as they say."
"Merriwether, don't you think that is a cheerful name? We adore Mr. Merriwether, especially since he had a great fall. Well children, Mr. Merriwether is sooooo important that you mustn't let him loose any of his beanie babies."
"Sooooooooooooooooooooooo, we will send out the happy guardians of your family, ( that includes your cat, if you catch my drift ) , your friends the Government, which will help Mr. Merriwether reclaim the money that he lost, playing oldmaid, on the playground. I just need your lunch money for the next 40% of the next millenium."
"Fine, I have always trusted the mathmatecal abilities of you sheeple."

I don't know about the rest of you, but I consider the bailout of LTCM as an overt act of war against the sheeple. I am sorely pissed.

As for tolerant1, if you have been taken over by a pod creature, as in "The Invasion of the Body Snatchers", Well then go with the alien, and smile upon your betters. Reach out your upheld palm an feel them hack it off at the elbow.
You are screwin' with us, with all of this nice-nice, then you are lost.
Get a grip, man! namaste, to you and yourn'.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:21 - ID#119358)
@pass da' rives pleeese..........
kinda' like a quasi-circumstantial non-recurring contingent liability.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:25 - ID#347447)
Mozel, et al - the notion that there is such a thing as a "vacuum" is quaint, and will be outmoded as soon as it sinks in fully upon modern scientific minds that there is no measurable end to the interpenetrating and interior layers ( or, more properly, "globes" of finer matter that support the visible physical universe as it is being observed at present. The component constituents of matter units will continue to be dioscovered to be finer and more complex than previously imagined. What appears to be "empty space" is but a sea of finer and even more plentiful units than can be comprehended at present. TRUE SPACE is NO THING. It has no dimensions, no boundaries. It is not. This is the Ayin, the "void", of the Kabbalists. All things came out of it.This is a concept that should be meditated upon fully, inasmuch as everything that is in the manifest universe came from NO THING. Which means that matter units, in their most primal and "finest" form, are divisions of space. Think about it. Vacuums are for rugs. They suck.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:26 - ID#153110)
@James It is amusing. Well, deep space is a vacuum. A vacuum is an insulator, a
perfect insulator, as observed in the thermos bottle. I thought this Board was for honing thinking ( analytical ) skills. Excuse me, policeaurator.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:27 - ID#119358)
@Mike O'Sheller.....okay, okay.........
Now would be a good time to "come out"....and say....I AM A FRAUD! So! Now you have it! Boy, do I feel better.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:32 - ID#347447)
Studio R
Didn't that feel better? I think it is time for a Fraud Liberation Support Group to sweep the land...nay, the WORLD. Stand up, all ye frauds, and let us know whereof you have defrauded. Repent, and get this heinous misdeed off your chest. It is clear the apocalypse approacheth. Time grows short. Vietnam Veterans, Space Program Moonwalkers, Rough Riders, Chinese Communists...I urge you all to step forward and admit the hoax you have been perpetrating on mankind. ( Not all Chinese Communists at once, please ) .

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:33 - ID#153110)
@Sheller Lots of eloquence. You can use those Magic Bottles to keep your
coffee hot and your iced drinks cold. Quaint, I know, but it's a fact on which observors can agree.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:33 - ID#26793)
I don't think that the 90% number in the story relates to the entire derivative market, only to that part of the portfolio of LTCM which now is under the control of the new committee.

There are about 1000 U.S. hedge funds. Many may have similar problems to LTCM. Confidence has been lost. Capital will now drain from the remaining 999, even if they are safe, where it is permitted. Positions must be unwound at any price in order to satisfy the withdrawals. That is deflationary. Additionally, pressure will be on the dollar as these instruments are likely heavily denominated in US$.

Further banks which funded derivative and hedge fund operations will reduce their lending. It was their lending that permitted the prices to run up in the first place. Withdrawal of this funding source, likely under orders of the Fed, is additionally deflationary.

Positions requiring unwinding in Japan will have a reduced marketplace.

Business deals involving two currencies will be at risk as floating currencies will be harder to nail down in the future. Deals will not get done out of fear of currency risk. Stock earnings will suffer as a result. The pressure from business for currency stability will increase and gold could well be the beneficiary.

Lots more but those are the main points; it seems bearish to me.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:34 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
From the one come the many. The one is without form. From the formless comes the ten thousand things.

Mysterious is the way of the TAO.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:35 - ID#347447)
If you can make a film show anything, I want you along on the next TV commercial I produce. Damn do I have trouble with these directors and technicians.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:36 - ID#347447)
Absolutely...I owe a lot to the "thermos."

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:37 - ID#347447)
As the Theosophists might say, you are one in a thousand. Two in Ten Thousand.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:41 - ID#287279)
Another Hoax
In addition to Mozel's Moon Walk Hoax and Mike Sheller's Vietnam War Hoax, there is one more. The Tewoana Brawley Hoax. Right Mike?
;- )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:41 - ID#119358)
I would say your 20:32 is funnier than hell....but I can't because I don't exist.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:42 - ID#347447)
Studio R
THAT's the point! None of this exists.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:43 - ID#43349)
I was refering to the part where you said:

"ALL the money in ALL the Money Market Funds is $1.276 trillion. LTCM problem is $1.25 trillion."

So that would leave just .021 trillion for everyone else.

Thats why I said IF TRUE it would be bullish. It would mean most of the problem had been worked through, was being worked.

I have no doubt, though, that there is more fire in the hole.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:44 - ID#93199)
FSAGX Up 54% in 19 days
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:44 - ID#347447)
I would have to defer to the Reverend Al Sharpton on that one, Shek. ( ;- )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:45 - ID#347447)
Thank Goodness I'm fully invested and don't have no money in any of them money market funds.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:45 - ID#254172)
silver inventories
Chris I understand your frustration with the silver market. I really do because my holdings just went to 5145.34 oz of investment grade silver bullion. I believe we will have to wait untill there is no above ground stockpile of silver except ours ( as investors I mean ) then tell these smart ass commodity traders that they can have our silver if they give us all the money in the world. If we are smart enough to buy a rare and valuable asset like silver it naturally follows that we as investors should be richly rewarded for our foresight and patience. Hang in there buddy the new world order can't win. It will hang itself for us.

Best regards

King Steven

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:45 - ID#153110)
@Sheller Didn't mean to provoke a flashback. Sorry.
I'll try to color only within the lines in future.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:46 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
I think it all depends on what "is" is.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:46 - ID#240288)

I ordered a Zen hot dog yesterday. Told the vendor to make me One with everything.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:47 - ID#347447)
You color any damn way you please, brother Mozel.








Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:48 - ID#347447)
One of my hands is clapping for that one!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:48 - ID#119358)
@ Auric.O.........

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:49 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
Anyone who is fully invested has no money, that's for sure.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:53 - ID#43349)
Cool! But of course the point of Zen is not to be one with everything but rather to just be.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:56 - ID#335379)
HEllo mozel: space is not a perfect vacuum.
The primary gas to be found is I think is helium or hydrogen. As I recall even the moons gravitational pull holds some of these gases near to itself.
But again I submit that radiation does NOT need "air". Even your Thermous will reach equilibrium after only a few days. Even a duer used for Liquid Nitrogen
ultimately causes LN to boil. With NO energy input a body naturaly cools
by radiation, or simply running out of enrgy to produce atoms in motion which creates heat. Matter is enrgy into motion creating the phenominon of matter, what is percieved as a solid body is actually a moving morass of electrons. If they slow
you cool, if enrgy is added they speed up and heat. And slow they will with no enrgy input.... Witness the microwave oven.
No heat is added but enrgy in the form or radio energy that has the effect of speeding up electrons, creating heat. This would work in a vacuum.
Just like light when it interacts with a body creats heat when it tries to pass through.
Any body is in essence a micro wave oven spinning atoms to create heat. When thier is no source of energy to replenish it slows/cools. This also does not require vaccum.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:58 - ID#384350)
That money market figure only accounts to the Capital of LTCM which was several Billion. It doesn't take into account the leverage involved.

A side note - When people say that markets aren't leveraged like they were in the 1920's, it really makes me cringe. Derivatives plus all sorts of consumer and business debt are way beyond historic levels. People rarely borrowed to buy cars, didn't use credit cards etc.

In 1929 companies had little debt. Today's companies are exposed. A crash like 1929 could leave the vast majority of the S&P 500 owned by the bankers and/or their minions.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 20:59 - ID#153110)
@Nicodemus On earth, a vacuum insulates. Principle observed at work in the thermos.
Space, we agree, is a vacuum. If a vacuum insulates in one place, will it not likewise in another. Or, are we trying to conform the vacuum properties of space to what was potrayed in the Apollo 13 Movie rather than to what we observe with our own eyes in the operation of the thermos ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:00 - ID#119358)
@NicOdemus has just explained the Bay Watch Phenomenon........
"a solid body is actually a moving morass of electrons. If they slow
you cool, if energy is added they speed up and heat"

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:05 - ID#153110)
@Nicodemus I agree that radio energy transits the vauum of space . In fact, this radio energy is
more intense in space than on earth. I think gases in the atmosphere absorb. Ther are obviously not enough hydrogen or helium molecules in space to be material to this disucission. Else earth itself would receive no heat from the sun.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:07 - ID#190411)
That's a swell chart. I thank you for your effort.

BTW, I just was on an investment show in Chicago. The host has some rather conflicting views. F'rinstance, he thinks that you should mortgage your house, and use the proceeds to "invest". He also is a modest goldbug. I confounded him with the stuff about LTCM. He thanked me for "keeping him focused".
The sheeple that have nothing better to do than listen to an investment show on a very warm Saturday night, have gotten something to ponder. I wonder what an eloquent goldbug could do.
I still say that you should post your thoughts about the AU stuff. The few times that you have, were certainly worth reading.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:07 - ID#335379)
You are still concerned about "insulation" if you go back to my two prvious discussions
you will see that insulation is irrelivant. Energy is lost when atoms slow down, they do it on thier own. Down here man's bodies create only part of the heat nessasary for life. The rest is environmental.
Earth thermoses ulimatly equilabrate. Inside and out side become the same temp.
thier are parts of space where atomic activity is zero, no enrgy in electrons have ceased to move at all. COLD.
ps did you read my posts that discuss light motors?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:09 - ID#153110)
@Studio ROFL.
The elegance of the choice of the word "morass" in connection with the Baywatch Phenomenon is a distinctive touch, I think. At the least, it broadens the theory to include more than one known heated scene.

Chicken man
(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:09 - ID#341297)
Donald--Peeking in each other's hand
I don't like the idea that too many "market makers" including AG are
looking in each other's hand. There are real losers in there hands too!
Now the only thing to do is move the market towards break even. I agree
with you about equities as being vunerable ( sounds like the way AG speaks )
I think it would be better said,watch out below unless you might have
some cash to participate in the Great Equity Robbery of 98.

Stay ahead of the curve-IMHO

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:10 - ID#335379)
I only mention theses gasses to say that the universe is not a perfect vacuum.
It is a perfect radiator. Another thing Radio and radiation are very differnt things in this discussion. Radiant heat loss due to atoms slowing because of no energy input is not radio transmission of heat.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:10 - ID#43349)
@Gianni Dioro
If there are any bankers left :- )

In a boom within a fractional reserve banking system virtual money is created and comes to be owned by the banks.

"Real" money is no more than before.

Busts come when everyone tries to cash in their equities and such at one time.

All the leveraging done to pump the prices up, means that more money is owed to the banks than origianlly existed.

This creates a problem....

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:22 - ID#119358)
I am over here on the bench for the remainder of this game, you "A" stringers can handle it from thinks it's time for a leeetle toddy........ ;^ ) ~

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:24 - ID#190411)
@mozel 21:05
You are confounding conducted heat with radiated heat, ( or any other radiated energy ) .
A simple thought experiment;
Imagine yourself in the periphery of a city of 250,000 souls. The president of your country launches a strike against an "opponent" that few have heard of. The "Islamic Protectorate Group", or someone else, detonates a 30 megaton ( They will never be more than .5 kiloton, but it will do for the sake of the example ) bomb.
Will you feel the heat long before the blast? Of course. The bomb radiates at somewhat less than the speed of light in a vacuum. The atmosphere cannot absorb the transfer of heat in this short timespan, hence the convection driven mushroom, so beloved by 6-pak.

I still implore the gents here to see your post about the foil gold money. It solves all of the scurillous objections.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:24 - ID#335379)
Hello mozel: Another thing about a thermous is that because of the choice of materials, the inside
contents are continually reflecting thier heat internally so that the leakage of energy is slower. A glass cylender ( inside ) with a metalic layer is a thermal reflector by itself. If you throw that OPEN cup of coffe to the moon it will freeze on the way and be quit cold upon it's arrival. Solid.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:25 - ID#31876)
Meanwhile, Back on Earth Where our Money is Invested....
"Funds with names such as Prudent Bear, ProFunds Ultra Bear
and Rydex URSA have been top performers in the 10 weeks since
July 17 -- chalking up eye-popping gains of 20 percent to 40
percent each."

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:31 - ID#183109)
new RANGY NAV spreadsheet (MS Excel)
RANGY undervalued by at least 50%, possibly much more.

Version #12. Includes major RANGY assets, and also shows production/profit figures for all RR mines.

If you're interested in viewing this and don't own MS Excel, you can see it online at
Click on the left column icon "SPREADSHEET"

Note: I've recently overhauled the site so that Netscape users won't get as many screwed up pages, but there are still a few glitches, as Netscape and Explorer don't read things the same way.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:35 - ID#227238)
STUDIO.R (@auratOr..hickory smoked da' ribatives........yum yum.........)
Just had a mess of dem ribs. They be slow cooked for 5 hours in hickory smoke 'n spiced to produce enough heat to supply a guy all the way to the moon. With or without a thermos. ..... But sad to say they ain't nowhere near 1.26 trillion left. Nuttin' but some scraps 'n a few bones. .......

Mozel just don't understand the physics of the thing. Them guys was supplied ribs in their MRE's. Dint need no space suits after that. Just some liquid to control the internal temperature ...... and a relief tube.

Ya'll drop by, we'll do em again. fer sure.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:36 - ID#153110)
@Nicodemus By "a perfect radiator" I presume you intend to mean
something different than what the word means as a car part. I agree that radio energy transits the vacuum of space without loss and heats objects it intercepts. I just don't conceive of a vacuum being an insulator in one place and not so in another. Where is the boundary line where the physical laws reverse ? 200,000 miles up ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:37 - ID#43349)
How embarrassing
Greenspan, of course, has all along been arguing against more government oversight in the derivatives industry...

"Baker's concerns came week after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the lawmakers that hedge funds do not pose an overall risk to world financial markets.

Only days later, Greenspan's comments were followed by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was forced to step in and organize a $3.5 billion bailout of Long-Term Capital Management in order to avoid huge systemic market losses."

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:39 - ID#227238)
Studio R:
BTW, the explanation for the Chelsea thing is that she is borrowed from the DNC. They do it all the time. ... Bruno and her husband never did have a kid. It's all a hoax to foster the image of an All American couple.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:39 - ID#190411)
Where is your closest Federal Reserve Bank?
I say that we show up there on Monday with picks, scythes and pitchforks, and ask the impotentates why they are shorting gold ( through their proxies, the hedge funds ) .

Where is the outrage????? Donald has it in his understated way.

Spud, show us the outrage.

I hate, I hate, hear that t1, I am an ineffectual supporter of the STATE.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:45 - ID#384350)
Gollum - Most but not all banks will Fail
I suppose Chase or BONY or someone would get a covert Fed injection. Greenspan said that the Fed could buy a banks bad loan portfolio for something like 60 cents on the dollar. The Fed can choose who will survive, who will be forced to merge with a bigger bank. The bigger bank can say I'll give you $20 million for the Senior debt you hold on Gillette. And the insolvent smaller bank will say okay, and use the money to pay its attorneys.

This mad dash to merge of the big banks seems to be because they know that all but a handfull will survive the upcoming flood of insolvencies.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:50 - ID#347447)
John 3:6 Nicodemus
As Jesus said unto Nicodemus:
"That which is born of the flesh is flesh; and that which is born of the Spirit is spirit."

So "energy" is nothing moving real quickly, eh? The Lord musta been tuned to Kitco on a Saturday nite.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:53 - ID#119358)
@dem bones.....Eat@EarlO's..........
I can smell 'em from here.....even tho' there are fourteen gigatrillion nitrogen and oxygen atoms between dem bones and me.....somehow that flavor just RADIATES from there to here....yum...yummmm...slaw y potato salad....suk dat co'beer.....vacuum.........expellent's all in dem bones.....

Yes, I have Cuba Libre! in hand.....Chelsea Rox. She should sue Billdo for several categories of damages. salud!!!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:56 - ID#347447)
Kitco Kwestion
Seriously, folks, does anyone know how many people surf Kitco each day? Bart? any ballparks? Are there ANY stats on the Kitco population, be it posters, lurkers, and transients? Would be interested.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:57 - ID#43349)
@Gianni Dioro
Probably, in the end, it will be the lawyers who will have all the money.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:58 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
Energy is one hand clapping very quickly.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 21:59 - ID#347447)
Studio R
re Cuba Libres - En Puerto Rico we used to call them una Mentirita - the little lie. Hey, don't pick on ME, I learned it from the locals.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:00 - ID#347447)
I don't have that much energy to clap so fast.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:01 - ID#43349)
Torches, don't forget the torches, Ya gotta have torches.

Especially around all that paper.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:02 - ID#119358)
@Ol'Sheller...please remember me for this quote.......
I have never told a little lie.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:02 - ID#347447)
I was too flippant. I am just now letting that one sink in. VERRRRRY heavy.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:02 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
Switch to your other hand.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:04 - ID#347447)
Studio R
only beeg ones

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:06 - ID#153110)
@Too bad them Astronauts din't point the video cam at a thermometer
while they were on the moon's surface. Wonder why not ? Too busy playing golf, I guess.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:07 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
Sometimes, in a moment of flippancy, we get closer to truth than the illusions of our mind would otherwise allow.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:08 - ID#320136)
Kitcoites: Your comments, please!! LTCM : 1.25 trillion on margin
What impact will this revelation have on the
markets Monday? This is an astronomical figure
overhanging the financial markets, and obviously,
the consortium of bankers and stockbrokers headed
by AG organized a meeting in a big rush to provide
temporary cover on margin calls. This at a time
when worldwide markets are sagging; initially the
reports were that $80 - $100 billion were outstanding,
and now we have a much larger kettle of fish.

Could this be the straw that breaks the camel's

GO GOLD !!!!!!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:09 - ID#288295)
I just returned from my Moon Walk and

read Yvan Auger's update for XAU Elliott Waves.
Hmmmmmm....sort of puts some water on the gold

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:10 - ID#347447)
Men on the Moon
Does anyone remember the time the TV cam on the Moon wouldn't provide a picture, and the guys kept tinkering and tinkering, and nothing happened? And then one of 'em smacked the damn thing on the top and the picture came right on. Well, this proves beyond a doubt that they were really on the Moon, because you just couldn't write a scene like that. C'mon Mozel, don't trifle with my credulity. Kitco is a harsh mistress. Leave me with SOME illusions.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:10 - ID#119358)
re: viewership@kitcO=X

after tonight.... .5 X

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:12 - ID#347447)
Gollum 22:07
Amen. I'm flipping out.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:18 - ID#255151)
Lou_Jan @ 22:08

That is a very good question. One that I hope gets a lot of comments. Been thinking about that since Carl ( I think ) first alerted Kitco several hours ago. Our first reading will be in about 24 hours when the Asian markets open. I am also guessing the LTC Bank in Japan is sitting on a whole lot of bad news that the markets have not discounted. Go Gold indeed!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:19 - ID#288295)
And VBut Market Cycles says the bottom is in, but short term cycle is down

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:19 - ID#250121)
Some straw!
Some camel!


(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:20 - ID#227238)
A thermometer in that situation would have been meaningless. It would only register whatever heat was being absorbed - by the thermometer alone - from the sun and reradiation from the surrounding lunar surface. The ambient temperature, if such a term is possible in that situation, would still be largely that of empty space.

Your quandary on the the insulative effects of a thermos is more a function of temperature differentials than it is on the insulative qualities of a partial vacuum. An earth bound thermos bottle may see a differential of 150 degrees or so. In which case the tightly bounded partial vacuum slows the transfer of heat from the contents to the outside by limiting the number of gas molecules available for heat transfer. Given a temperature differential of outer space, the rate of heat loss would increase accordingly.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:21 - ID#288295)

Strike the And V from the leader of previous post

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:22 - ID#347447)
Silvery Moon
While we're speaking of the Moon, let's get back to PM's for a moment. I get a verrrry nice reading for Silver in May of '99. First 2 weeks of that month Jupiter conjuncts NYSE Moon at 19 Aries. As every Astrologer, Metaphysician, and student of occult philosophy knows, the Moon's metal is Silver. Meaty aspects to NYSE Moon such as this almost invariably result in significant action for Silver. This is statistical fact. I would go with the traditional odds here and see the conjunction as a benign to positive aspect in this ROUGH time frame. Could be either a peak of excitement for silver after a buildup, or a kickoff. I go with peaking action, perhaps the maturing of the embryonic silver rally that may currently be underway. Deferred contracts might be neat for folks with faith and patience. Now I'm giving you folks Seven Months to get it all together, so remember where you heard it first. Very serious here. This is what I do ( among other things ) .

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:22 - ID#119358)
we're toast. ( a remix )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:23 - ID#335190)
AIDS will not slow worldwide population growth @ 7.7 to 11 Billion by 2050
September 26, 1998

AIDS, social pressures, lower population projections

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Population experts now believe several African countries may achieve zero population growth in just a few years. But family planners are not cheering.

The reasons are gruesome and worrisome: populations devastated by AIDS and further threatened with food shortages, water depletion, ecological collapse and social chaos.

AIDS in some African countries will be dramatic, even "unbelievable." AIDS, which killed 2.3 million adults and children last year, will not slow worldwide population growth, however.

The world's population will reach six billion by the middle of next year and is expected to rise to between 7.7 billion and 11 billion by 2050.

Groups working to control rapid population growth around the world are concerned the new projections will be viewed as support for the cynical view that the world's population problems will take care of themselves no matter what humans do.

The challenge, said Brown, is to keep families small before disease, environmental deterioration or resulting social chaos force tragic population declines.

September 26, 1998

Tired of same old infections? Then try babesiosis or Chagas disease

SAN DIEGO ( AP ) -- As though ordinary flu and tuberculosis aren't enough to worry about, specialists at an infectious disease conference are spending the weekend running down a compendium of new and emerging bugs -- an assortment of germs that have probably escaped the attention of all but the most committed hypochondriacs.

Of course, new infections are nothing new. AIDS is the best example of an infectious disease that has emerged and spread worldwide over the last generation.

Others include Lyme disease, the hanta virus and the especially nasty food poisoning bacteria called E. coli 0157:H7.

Some, like AIDS, get a foothold when infected people move from isolated locales into cities and then around the world. Others spread from animals to people, in part as a result of huge farms that allow bugs from a few infected creatures to get into food that reaches thousands.

Animal-to-human spread "is an extremely important part of the emerging infections agenda," said Dr. James M. Hughes, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases at the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:32 - ID#43349)
Another night - - off to flip out myself
The biggest problem the asronauts faced was to avoid cooking themselves to death when out in their suits on a spacewalk ( or on the moon :- ) ) . The human body produces about as much heat as a 100 watt light bulb and space suits are not very good radiators. So besides oxygen for breathing one needs some air conditioning.

Put a candle in that thermos or something which PRODUCES heat along with your hot coffee and eventually the coffee would boil once the candle produced enough latent heat.

If the spacesuit is illuminated by sunlight the problem gets worse, so spacesuits are painted white to reflect as much heat as possible rather than absorb it.

Good night all.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:34 - ID#119358)
@pOlarbear.............before I forget it............
I must say your RangitO site is absolutely believable!!! Dem sparklin' nuggets, maps, core charts, 3-D displays of fields....WoW!!!! I am a happy shareholder thanx to you! muchas garcias!!!!

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:39 - ID#335379)
HEllo mozel: see Earl's 22:20 2nd paragraph. Perhaps you are still seeing heat as an
etherreal effect. It is the movement of electrons. Down here they move freely because of all the abundant heat, like inside and outside your thermous.
Up there, thier is no abundant heat, the electrons slow, RADIATE thier enrgy and cool. At -800C this happens really fast. By the by I have the original Apollo 13
documentary not the "movie". Not to attempt to repudiate your idea that it could also be a hoax. Just to say I am not just basing my words on a hollywood product.
Even a flywheel in space with no friction slows down just as the Earth has been doing for 600 million years. Decay is the norm for the universe.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:40 - ID#347447)
This is why I get depressed at Kitco
6pak is right. I began working on a pitch to the Zambian Ambassador to the U.S. a month or so ago, for a campaign to develop tourism to that nation. But when the account exec who had the connection and I researched the country, we found it to be the "epicenter" of the aids epidemic in Africa. We politely declined to pitch the account. This disease is now of tragic proportions in Africa, and is threatening a swing through Asia that may prove equally devastating. As well, it is still a problem in the "west", as well as an upsurge in the use of a number of extremely dangerous drugs. A severe economic downturn worldwide would be the catalyst for unfortunate consequences beyond the normal ugliness of poverty and desperation. We are at a fiery crossroads for the societies of this planet.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:42 - ID#227238)
Lou Jan:
When the final chapter is written on derivatives and their impact on late 20th century economics; I believe it will be found that this recent 1.25 trillion represents, at best, only one percent of the total. If the 'powers that be' say that it's really 90% of the problem; their words must be measured only in the context of their total credibility. .... "Believe little, resist much" c. ( youthful ) WJC.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:45 - ID#153110)
@Earl @Studio
@Earl What a quandry. Can't seem to measure temperature there if I read you right. Do you think perhaps our thinking is obstructed by preconceived notions ? Sort of like, it's cold on Mt Everest so it must be even colder on the moon because it's higher ?

Are the insulating qualities of the vacuum in the thermos bottle different at the North Pole and at the equator ?

@Studio Toasted on both sides.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:47 - ID#347447)
our thinking is ALWAYS obstructed by preconceived notions

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:48 - ID#347447)
Mercury is "higher" than the Moon. Shouldn't it be colder?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:50 - ID#347447)
Studio R
Somewhere there's high the Moon?

With reverence to Les Paul and Mary Ford, of course.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:51 - ID#266105)

That's because dead seriousness and utter hilarity share more
in positive covariance than mutual exclusivity.

( urp )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:54 - ID#153110)
Now you want me to believe that the "space suit" could protect a man where the supposed gradient is 98.6 here and -800 an inch away ? What is the thickness, do you think, of the material in the fingers of the "space" gloves ?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:56 - ID#335379)
HEllo mozel: Temperatures in space and on moon are measured using
a technique called infrared black body absorbtion rates. A mercury thermometer
simply cannot shrink enough mercury to measure such coldness. It would become solid long before then. It is a matter of ranges and differrential temperatures as Earl pointed out. Remember what we call "heat", "temperature" and "cold"
are phenominons produced by the speed of electrons which nominaly is extremely high and to which exposer to a loss of energy slows them down drasticaly. Here on earth we only see moderately cold and hot temperatures. The best cooling I have seen at Lawrence Livermore labs was -400C The hottest of course is a thermonucular device, for which I cannot remember the temp.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:57 - ID#153110)
Would you insert your "space gloved" hand into the relatively friendly temperature of a vat of liquid oxygen ? That's still quite a bit above your -800. Have the astronauts ever done such a demonstration ?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:57 - ID#347447)
tolly folly
I have it on good authority that tolerant 1 is not here tonite as he has been locked in negotiations with Michel ( Ma Belle ) Camdessus over that 18 Billion U.S. tolly promised him. When it was disclosed that a full trillion was needed, and Michel wouldn't settle for un centime less, tolly tried to hit me up for the balance. Hey, I says to him, gimme a break. I'm sittin' onna gold mine an" I can't get no dough. Go somewheres else where the money is, I says. So don't be surprised if tolerant comes back here all dripping Namaste n' stuff, and tries to hit you guys n' gals up for a few piasters. DONT FALL FOR IT. You'll only be cutting your own throat. Put all that extra cash to work in silver. Remember that conjunction in May '99. Get real.

Shhhh. I think he's on the way back now.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 22:59 - ID#347447)
never mind the fingers...

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:00 - ID#227238)
The insulative effect is a constant. Rate of heat loss is a function of the difference in temperature between inside and outside. ... Yer thermos will cool quicker when yer deer hunting in Nov than it does when yer fishin in July. Yes?

In space it becomes more complex because an object subjected to the sun's radiation would absorb the radiation and convert it to heat and at a greater rate than on earth because there is no atmosphere to filter and partially absorb that radiation. .... see Gollum below.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:02 - ID#335379)
Hello mozel: see my 20:09 about attenuating heat loss.
Also remember that if heat loss is slowed and fueld it can be regulated.
This technology is doable no sweat. ( : )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:03 - ID#347447)
mus be somethin in de air
my eyes have been burning all day ( too? ) and it doesn't help sitting in front of this 20" Apple monitor either. So let me bid all you wonderful people a good night. Either Saturday nights at Kitco is just a barrel of intellectual amusement and fun, or I need to get a life.
Sweet dreams and good morning, as the case may be.






(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:04 - ID#227238)
2BR02B? (Gollum/flippancy):
Covariance 'n exclusivity? Huh? ...... Not much to do in Coos Bay evidently.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:05 - ID#153110)
Yes. We have a body which will be heated by absorption of radio energy at a greater rate than on earth where it is atmosphere protected and it will be so heated while situated in an insulating vacuum.

Astronaut Toast.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:07 - ID#335379)
Hello mozel it seems that you are still confusing Convection and conduction with radiation.
The glove in liquid OX has more thermal conduction. The glove in space need only replace the heat loss of space. Wich is just the slowing of the electrons in the mans hand, which of course is fueld by the mans body. Any number of internal heat transfer tecknologies could be used at that point.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:08 - ID#290172)
the "Moon Walk", real or fake, is a metaphor for the world in which we live

Perhaps Mozel is asking something more from us?
While we may not wish to ascertain whether or no Man Walked on the Moon
We may wish to confront the artificial person construct
While we may not wish to explore the laws that rule in outer space
We may wish to address the laws that rule our inner-space

Our highly specialized division of labor
Demands our willing suspension of disbelief
To board the plane
Willing ourselves to believe
That the obviously impossible
Is not.
Our highly specialized division of labor
Which compels our willing suspension of disbelief
Has lead us to the place where now we are
And all we really know
Is that we probably don't know
The things we had best know
To get from here
To there

Die Tat ist alles, nichts der Ruhm.

The colloquy has been most enjoyable, and very informative. You all are, in whirling turns, erudite, witty, opinionated, impossible, erudite, funny as hell and quite wonderfully real.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:08 - ID#255151)
By The Light (by the light) of the Silvery Moon (Silvery moon)

Can't stop humming this tune, for some

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:10 - ID#335379)
The suit can transfer heat out or reflect light that would turn to heat, or it can heat inside.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:13 - ID#335379)
The suit also had a pack that was 120 lbs on earth and only 40 up thier.
You get the idea, 120 pounds of stuff cramed into a 40 pound pack.
We do it in silicon valley all the time. Usually with date-reversed deadlines. ( : )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:14 - ID#45173)
Just traded emails with a friend in HK
Says they are having a good laugh at AG's expense. One day he's wagging his finger at them for intervening in the HK stock market, next day he's circling the wagons to bail out a hedge fund. Har, har. Glasses clinking.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:14 - ID#335379)
ther, thier and thar, Sorry folks I gotta get that worked out.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:17 - ID#153110)
And there's the rub. Transferring heat to the vacuum. To the perfect insulator. No the cooling had to be done some other way. In fact, the little back packs are at the heart of the fraud. But, the Astronauts would have been cooked in the "space" craft before they arrived.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:18 - ID#253418)
To Rhody / RE Hecla
Thanks for you feed back on HL. I would agree my multiples are alot higher than yours. As much as stocks like KO and G and GPS have attained multiples in excess of 30 times earning, I think that precious metals stocks will similarly perform.

FSR.v does indeed seem like the preferred play from an valuation/ evaluation perspective. Accessing trades in Canadian traded only companies is not possible for me currently.

HL, SSC and CDE onm the NYSE should adequate attention to make up for most of their less than great comparative fundlementals, IMHO.

Once silver gets moving - above $6.50 the public cry for mining stocks will put fundlemental evaluation in the back ground. It will become a momentum play like the internet stocks and other technowiz plays.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:24 - ID#227238)
Live, from Montreal. It's Saturday nite! And I guess this is better than the usual Sat nite fare of guns and goin' to ground.

The heat loss thingy is in two parts. One by convection ( see Nicodemus ) . That is heat transferred by an intermediary such as atmospheric gas molecules carrying heat from one point or object to another.

The other mechanism is via radiation. ..... ( BTW, the term "radio waves" is too confining, they only represent a tiny portion of spectral area of that which is considered "radiation". ) ...... Heat loss via radiation does not involve an intermediary. ..... Consider those radiant heaters, so common in industrial applications. The radiant heat that they produce will warm any object in the path of the radiation. But it does not do a very good job of heating the surrounding air. So, while standing in the path of the damn thing, one side of the body will feel the effect of the radiation and the side opposite will feel the chill of surrounding air.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:24 - ID#335379)
It is the natural slowing of an atoms electrons that cause the cooling effect. The heat transfer I referred to was internal to the suit. To go back to the issue of cooling the man inside revisit the idea that a plate ouside the mans suit is frozen with a silicon oil to transfer the heat, to the plate, which has already been atomicaly slowed, or is "cool", is hidden from the sun and exposed to the universe.
The reason why the ship does not heat is the same reason sattalites do not fry.
Reflective and radiant panels in the appropriate places.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:27 - ID#253418)
LTCM's 1.25 Trillion
Remember this number came from one set of reporters at the NY Times. There has been no further verification. MaY well be nothing but sensationalism to keep readers reading. After all 100 billion, was starting to look like small change.

It is alsom important to note that the FED didn't bail out the LTCM. They provided a conference rooms and undoubtably made some suggestions. This was not a bail out. Just as the Euro is not "backed by gold" the distiction should be made.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:32 - ID#227238)
The use of a partial vacuum as an insulating medium will only slow the rate of loss due to convection. .... The radiant transfer continues apace, with or without a vacuum. ..... or the moon or a man or a space ship. Were it not so, the sun would do us no damn good at all.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:33 - ID#45173)
You are correct. No public funds were used.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:40 - ID#45173)
"To make interstellar travel believable NASA was created."
The likelihood that man walked on the moon is greater than or less than the chance that:

"The Apollo Space Program foisted the idea that man could travel to, and walk upon, the moon. Every Apollo mission was carefully rehearsed and then filmed in large sound stages at the Atomic Energy Commissions Top Secret test site in the Nevada Desert and in a secured and guarded sound stage at the Walt Disney Studios within which was a huge scale mock-up of the moon."

How did Disney get this deal? If this really happened you'd have read in the Hollywood Reporter about a gnarly battle among Disney ( aka "Mousewitz" ) and other studios before, during, and after the gig. Just TRY to keep a studio exec quiet.


(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:42 - ID#373403)
Privateer Prophesy of LTCM And What Is To Come

Since 1984 ...The Private Market Letter For The Individual Capitalist
1998 Volume Mid March Issue Number 344

I would suggest that all of you who subscribe to go back and re-read this issue. If you do not subscribe, do so now and request this back issue.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:43 - ID#227238)
The fed didn't get involved in the bailout directly with its cash? .... Wanna bet?

The game is not constructed to be played to the disadvantage of major players. You may be certain that there is some of the Fed's walkin' around money involved. The rest is just for public consumption. ....... Those who are fond of believing what they are told.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:46 - ID#373403)
The Federal Reserve may not be bailing out LTCM and $100 billion may be small change and $1.25 trillion may not be accurate but then again, several of the banks bailing out LTCM felt pressured by the Fed.

Maybe $1.25 trillion is accurate or maybe $100 billion is signifigant.

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:47 - ID#45173)
The most lucid explanation I've yet read on
"All names, missions, landing sites, and events in the Apollo Space Program echoed the occult metaphors, rituals, and symbology of the Illuminati's secret religion. The most transparent was the faked explosion on the spacecraft Apollo 13, named Aquarius" ( new age ) at 1:13 ( 1313 military time ) on April 13, 1970 which was the metaphor for the initiation ceremony involving the death ( explosion ) , placement in the coffin ( period of uncertainty of their survival ) , communion with the spiritual world and the imparting of esoteric knowledge to the candidate ( orbit and observation of the moon without physical contact ) , rebirth of the initiate ( solution of problem and repairs ) , and the raising up ( of the Phoenix, the new age of Aquarius ) by the grip of the lions paw ( reentry and recovery of Apollo 13 ) . 13 is the number of death and rebirth, death and reincarnation, sacrifice, the Phoenix, the Christ ( perfected soul imprisoned in matter ) , and the transition from the old to the new. Another revelation to those who understand the symbolic language of the Illuminati is the hidden meaning of the names of the Space Shuttles, "A Colombian Enterprise to Endeavor for the Discovery of Atlantis... and all Challengers shall be destroyed."

Yes! Yes! That makes perfect sense! Now I get it! Woohoo!

I can't wait to tell my sister, who wrote one of the segments of the HBO "Apollo" series, that all the astro-nots and their wives and friends she interviewed were Satanists! Imagine her surprise!


(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:49 - ID#153110)
No heat transfer by convection or conduction in a vacuum. Nothing there to conduct to. Nothing moving to vector heat away. The side away from the sun would not be "cold". It's in an insulating vacuum.

Remember, we don't glow in the dark. We ain't that radiant. At least not without a halo. :- )

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:53 - ID#174103)
This may help, or not. Heat has not much to do with an atom's electrons, except at temperatures approaching absolute zero. If I remember my physics correctly ( big if ) the temperature is dependent on the average total energy of a system of particles, being translational energy ( how fast they are moving ) rotational energies and vibrational energies ( itself divided into vibrational kinetic energies and vibrational potential energies ) . My first non-gold related posting, but, it is a Saturday night in some places! OTOH, gold is a damn good conductor of heat.....

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:55 - ID#373403)
Might I break in to this discussion on space travel for some good news about gold?

(Sat Sep 26 1998 23:58 - ID#45173)
mozel re space suit
Outside the suit, vacuum. Inside the suit, human + air. Sun hits suit heating suit, air in suit, human in suit. Air conditioning to conduct heat away from human.

And the confusion is...