I already have some PM and own more than enough mining shares. I do wish I had been able to buy more NEM and ABX at their lows.

My thought is to own BearX as a hedge if an equity collapse takes the mining shares with them. I plan on buying more tomorrow if the markets are strong and the fund stays below 7.
Right now, it doesnt look like that this is going to happen.

Another hedge that I am going to institute is to buy the Fidelity Contra Fund when equities collapse again. I may start nibbling below 48.

HighRise

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese stocks fell sharply at midday Tuesday on growing concerns over the credit risks of Japanese companies. The U.S. dollar fell against the yen ahead of a Federal Reserve Board policy meeting. The Nikkei Stock Average lost 270.39 points, or 1.94 percent, ending the morning session at 13,638.98. On Monday, the Nikkei gained 185.53 points, or 1.35 percent. Concerns about credit risks in Japan are growing after news that Japan Leasing Corp., a non-bank affiliate of the troubled Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd., filed for court protection under bankruptcy laws Sunday. On Tuesday, an auto leasing subsidiary of Japan Leasing also filed for bankruptcy. Many investors stayed out of the market ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting later in the day. The FOMC is widely expected to cut U.S. interest rates in a bid to revive the global economy. Such a move could push New York stocks higher and have a positive impact on Japanese share prices as well.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1v.htm
--
Don'cha just hate when Kitco locks up.

DRUDGE REPORT
Mon Sep 28 1998 21:29:59 ET
x x x x x

TAPE #30

**Exclusive**

The American public will soon hear Monica Lewinsky telling Linda Tripp how Vernon Jordan and President Clinton directly advised her to lie under oath!

HighRise

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Federal Reserve policy-makers are expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly three years on Tuesday, acting on Chairman Alan Greenspan's alarm about a deteriorating world economy. The question, private economists said Monday, is how much success any cut would have in containing a financial crisis that so far has proven unstoppable and now threatens more countries, including Brazil. A reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve would boost the U.S. economy by making it cheaper for American consumers and businesses to obtain loans for big-ticket items. Stronger U.S. demand in turn would help foreign countries that ship goods to the United States. "A Fed rate cut will help undergird a deteriorating global economic situation. But it isn't a magic bullet," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp. in Minneapolis. Emphasizing the urgency, international authorities were busy working behind the scenes on a rescue package for Brazil. The largest economy in South America is being hit by the same panicked rush to the exits by foreign investors that has already flattened many Asian countries and Russia.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1u.htm

( bbc: )


Monday, September 28, 1998 Published at 17:11 GMT 18:11 UK


Business: The Economy

China curbs currency
outflow

Many traders prefer dollars

The Chinese government has issued strict new
regulations to prevent the flight of capital and reduce its
exposure to foreign debt.

A State Council circular calls for stricter controls by
banks on the sale of foreign currency and for central
government control over the issuing of foreign debt.

At present, local government bodies can offer guarantees
to foreign-funded projects and issue overseas debts -
mainly through local International Trust and Investment
Corporations.

The government is afraid that if there was a run on its
currency, high foreign indebtedness would become much
more expensive to repay, as in the rest of Asia, causing
severe economic problems.

Protecting the yuan

Officially China has pledged to defend the yuan, its
currency, which is not traded freely on international
markets.

The renminbi is the version of the currency used for
international transactions, and its rate has been fixed to
the dollar.

But many Chinese apparantly believe that the currency
could fall victim to a devaluation, and are secretly moving
their money into foreign currency accounts.

In the first eight months of 1998, despite a trade surplus
of $31bn, China's foreign currency reserves hardly
increased - pointing to a serious leakage of money.

Estimates of the flight of capital flight from China in 1997
range from $15bn to $25bn.

And the black market exchange rate in Beijing has risen
to RMB 8.9 to the dollar, compared to the official rate of
8.28.

State crackdown

In recent weeks the State Administration of Foreign
Exchange has intensified its crackdown on illegal foreign
exchange dealings.

The government has made breaching foreign exchange
regulations a criminal offense. And it is trying to set up a
computer database linking banks, customs, and foreign
exchange departments to monitor the flow of hard
currency to exporters.

Many exporters are suspected of trying to hoard their
foreign currency in overseas accounts, sometimes by
falsifying invoices.

But with low yuan-denominated interest rates, and the
devaluation risk, they have little incentive to move money
back to China.

Observers say that administrative measures will have
little impact on the long-standing practice.

One reason China is tightening up its currency regulation
is to boost reserves, which will be needed in any defence
of the currency.

But despite the Asian turmoil, China's long-term aim of
joining the international trading system will require a free
flow of capital - and eventually a floating currency.

The move to tighter controls could prove both fruitless
and counter-productive.













Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage



Monday's WSJ had an article on the Euro vs. the Dollar and the author states, "Think of each dollar bill as representing a debt owed by the U.S. Treasury to the holder."

Now, tell me again, how does the holder of that dollar debt collect that debt, in what form? It's over my head.

Thanks in advance.

Envy -- Just imagine if a countrys currency was strictly gold and silver fairly priced. Could another country, or speculators, make a run on it? Couldn't be done! I like that thought that was written earlier here: Commodities will find their true value. Even GREEN PAPER! HAR! Nothing truer ever said!

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Biz-Template.idc?artid=19980929014244031?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=4433

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2694
----------------------
The Complexity of Repair: A Programmer Describes One Job
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2700
We were making a control subsystem for the Shuttle communications network.
I don't think we could get there from here without redesigning the system, at a cost of millions. . . .
----
No Banks - No Division of Labor. Collapse Follows.
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2699
--------------
Why Governments Lie About Y2K: To Maintain Control
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2698
"We can lose lives, but we definitely can't lose control." Control is the top priority. Saving lives is second.
------
120 Cities. Simultaneous Failure. Forget It.
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2697
Under the guise of preparedness for domestic terrorist attacks, the U.S. military is training thousands of local police officers, national guardsmen and other officials to respond to national emergencies under centralized federal authority and control, according to plans revealed by Defense Department sources.
---------
Plus many more scary stories from
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/latest_.cfm
---------------------------
EJ
Thanks for the review.
I would hazard a guess that you friend is a tad too optimistic.

One only needs to read of Japan's remediation.
To stand back in shock and horror.

JSE & XAU both closed near their highs, on Monday.
Since the end of August, there has been a pattern of
surging volume in trading in gold stocks,
coupled with persistent appreciation in mining shares.

Gold is now due to break thru
the mythological barrier of $300.00/oz.,
for good.
Last chance to buy it below $300.00 is...... 'history' .

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2694
----------------------
The Complexity of Repair: A Programmer Describes One Job
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2700
We were making a control subsystem for the Shuttle communications network.
I don't think we could get there from here without redesigning the system, at a cost of millions. . . .
----
No Banks - No Division of Labor. Collapse Follows.
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2699
--------------
Why Governments Lie About Y2K: To Maintain Control
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2698
"We can lose lives, but we definitely can't lose control." Control is the top priority. Saving lives is second.
------
120 Cities. Simultaneous Failure. Forget It.
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2697
Under the guise of preparedness for domestic terrorist attacks, the U.S. military is training thousands of local police officers, national guardsmen and other officials to respond to national emergencies under centralized federal authority and control, according to plans revealed by Defense Department sources.
--------------
"Boola, Boola!" Says FED Official
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2682
Feldberg said a "big bang" at the turn of the century, bringing havoc to markets and possibly whole economies, could not be ruled out, but that on balance he was an optimist.

"By working together and making sure that appropriate resources are being devoted to Y2K today, I'm hopeful that most of the problems we face can be contained," he said.
---------
Plus many more scary stories from
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/latest_.cfm
---------------------------

EJ
Thanks for the review.
I would hazard a guess that you friend is a tad too optimistic.

One only needs to read of Japan's remediation.
To stand back in shock and horror.

Eldorado: Yeah, I loved that green paper comment too *grin*.

Crossbow: Some of the REAL gold-bugs might take exception to this - but my way of thinking about dollars is that they are a debt against the public of the United States. Regardless of how they are put into circulation ( FED ) , the essense of the dollar bill is that if you're holding one, you are holding a debt against your neighbors, that is, you expect to be able to pay that dollar to someone for goods and services at some point in the future. The quote is probably referring to the FED's lending of dollars ( creating them ) as a debt.

crossbow -- The Fed does not promise to pay you anything of value ( or anything at all ) for your paper. Not like in the old days when it was redeemable for silver or gold. Thus, its value is totally based on market perception/CONfidance. You can currently buy something with it. What tomorrow brings is a different story. You've seen it happen in country after country. Learn the lesson!

If we could just get those y2k folks to buy gold
with their "survival dollars", we just might get
the price of gold and silver to a price set by a
free market.

And establishing one ounce of Gold to be worth US$30,000 {old style}.
Thus inflating their way out of debt.
Not that it hasn't been done before by other governments.
Would I be just as well off sitting on US$90,000 of merchandise
as I would be with 300 ounces of Gold? {assuming today's POG at US$300}?
Would my debt to Citibank then be worth 1 cent on the dollar?
And my US$300 in cash {old style} then be worth US$3 {new style} and buy 3 loaves of bread? And miners' hourly wage becomes US$3,000 {old style} or US$30 {new style}?
Or do we get some exemptions in there such as government debt and social security payments are revalued but private debt is not.
Hmmmmm

A short talk with Bill Gates about you know what.

We worshipped long the Yankee Dream
From childhood till the grave.
But never Bill have you offered
The rich bright dream to save.

We bought your Windows 95
NT, Access; Word and Excell
Then Windows 98.
These led us up a road to ruin
Our trust in vain, Bill Gates.

We bought your book "The Road Ahead"
No word of warning there.
You wrote it Bill, with tounge in cheek
You told a lie; or was it just
You simply did not care?

You have your lovely yacht, Bill Gates
You Island in the sun.
Not all your billions will repair
The damage you have done.

Well Bill; the Gates have crashed
Chaos in our lives supreme.
Your "Road Ahead" our road to ruin
The wreckage of the Dream.

That's about what I figured, and what I was afraid of. Sooo, a private enterprise ( FED ) provides for the issuing of these debt instruments that are worth what the holders of the instrument think they're worth, and all in relative terms.

Think I'll convert some more of my "debt" to some shiny metal.

Thanks

The airlock is burping every second. The place is starting to smell like a brewery {which it is}! Of what do I speak? A 5 gallon batch of 14 pounds Golden Honey, one dozen cans Welch's Grape Juice and a pinch of wine yeast. With wine yeast it is possible to get 18% alcohol!
http://www.heartshomebrew.com/wyst.html
http://160.79.246.86/yeast.htm

And people here talk about deflation and inflation in ways I haven't quite caught on to yet, but it's related. By my way of thinking, which could be wrong, there are like a certain number of dollars out there ( it changes all the time ) and everyone in the world has been fighting over them because they've been a good store of value. Since everyone wants them, the market for dollars has forced the dollar up, that is, it's gotten a lot stronger ( foreigners are fighting with you for the dollars in your pocket as a commodity ) . Anyway, that creates problems for the US because it makes US companies less able to compete in the world market, because we've got all these super-strong dollars in our pockets, and foreign companies can beat us out with whatever cheap'o currency their playing with. So that leads people to put pressure on the FED to lower rates, which is supposed to make it easier for people to borrow money, which puts more money into circulation - and it weakens the dollar, because now the FED is in competition with dollars that are out on the street, makes them less valuable. They don't say that - they say their trying to spur on borrowing for capital investment, etc. That's all well and good as I understand things - it helps make US companies more competitive with lower valued dollars, etc, but the bad news is that it also makes the US dollar less attractive to all those folks who have been competing with you for it, and they start selling them. When they sell, the value drops even more as those dollars come rushing back to our shores. Don't try to compete with the presses. In my view - this is why Gold has been seeing a rise in price, people are desperate to "sell dollars" before they get de-valued. That's my understanding of it all, could be off. Question is - what happens if the FED lowers rates and people stop borrowing.

Squirrel -- An ounce of gold will only ever buy what it will, whether that be 30,000 dollars or a decent suit. 'Couse, if you see an ounce of gold fetching 30,000 dollars, expect a decent suit to basically do the same. You may equate that to any other goods and services as you may. That's what they do in Russia these days.

You don't have to worry about that.
They are already buying with both hands.

And as each new y2k convert becomes aware
There is even more PM's being taken out of the system.

I spend alot more time surfing the Y2k threads these days.
And the PMs are talked about constantly.

Buying PM's is one of the most common threads to the new converts.
They want to know where to plant their money safely.
--------------
Here's a comment from one of the threads this morning.
O/49r commenting to a newbie asking about PM's
---
My gold recommendations are along 3 types/varieties, Anne,
But before I answer this question, I have 3 for you:
1 ) Do you know how to identify gold as well as its purity content?
2 ) Do you know how to weigh gold?
3 ) Do you know how to price gold during the business day and after business
hours?
If you don't, you need to learn, ok?
1 ) I have a book ( Yes it is for sale ) that teaches how to as well as where to
find gold
2 ) I have a test kit ( Yes it is for sale also ) that proves that something is
or isn't gold.

Now, the FORMS of gold I reco:
1 ) Straight out of the ground or stream gold, known as placer gold, or gold
nuggets
2 ) Gold Casting shot in 10K to 24K round looking ball bearing shapes
3 ) Gold coins...large size for wealth preservation and
smaller under one ounce sizes, for spending/barter/exchange.
Yes, there are fabricated gold items in other forms, jewelry, bars, rings,
bangles, dental etc.

The smaller sizes of gold coins for purchase in the last category are known
as FRACTIONALS.
In the US Gold Content coins, which alloy has NOT changed since it was fixed
by law in the early
1900s by the way...
the sizes available for purchase are
1 oz
1/2 oz
1/4 oz
1/10 oz

In Canadian Gold available for easy purchase
they have all the above
PLUS a 1/20 oz.

And In China,
they all all 5 above
PLUS they have made a 1/40 ounce gold coin series starting with the year of
the cat.
( I have one just as a conversation piece. I'll most likely never spend it. )

Anything minted or stamped that is not in a rectangular shape ( bar/ingot )
or in a jewerly adapted state ( earring, ring, bangle )
is considered a TOKEN because it is not stamped with its monetary value by the
particular minting authority.

I prefer in this order:
Placer gold
Fractional US coinage, particularly the 1/4 oz and 1/10 oz sizes.
Jewelry

I can buy/sell all of it with equal ease, because I've taken the time
to learn the answers to the 3 Do You Know How To questions:

PLEASE PLEASE PUUUULEEEEZE start educating yourself with the HOW TOs
so that you don't get ripped off!!!

Nice chatting w/you.
O/49r

And replace all the other fiat money - at least in the hands and purses and bank accounts of those who put their trust in Gold and Silver. This assumes that the money is freely traded and commonly circulated. Gresham's law actually works to the advantage of the country {or private enterprise} minting this Gold and Silver money. With each sale of a coin they make money. As more is hoarded away - more sales are made. So what if the first billion coins disappear down a burrow - if a profit is made on each coin then just mint another billion for even more profit! Eventually enough Gold and Silver would be absorbed in the process that the POG and POS {in real value} would increase - perhaps dramatically.

i think we may be at the beginning of a good run in silver- and all of the silver stocks are basically on the bottom. coeur cde up a full buck today. silver surged at the end. i chased some options and they ran away from me faster than my broker could follow them. the juniors and pennies didn't budge, but they will.

I've followed the inflation / deflation discussions here for sometime and I still feel like the ole' cartoon hound dog, "Which way did he go? Which way did he go? But, I first saw the "d" word on this forum last year, long before I saw it anywhere else.

Wasn't it Yogi Berra who said "You can observe a lot by watching." Back to lurking and watching.

Squirrel -- One must always assume that people will save. That may mean either stuffing it in a mattress, or allowing it to be loaned out in 'partnership' for potential gain ( or loss ) as the case may be. Should too much of it be socked away in the mattress, it simply would make prices fall in relation to what is circulating. That would cause demand to pick up. Then as some coinage then comes out of the mattreses, then prices will rise to meet the excess. Nothing major. Just normal supply and demand without REAL inflation or REAL deflation. Just the normal way things work.

Miners would then, as today, still make 1/10th ounce of Gold per hour and loaf of cheap bread would still be worth 1 grain of Gold {though one would need US$60 in old script or 60 cents in new script to buy that loaf}. The question is: what happens to government and private debt?

Bad winds a blowin' @ aol.com .
They have just brought on to their board of directors the internet guru, General of the affirmative actors, Colin Powell.
To give this wizard of the electrons some added putch, the stockholders have ponied up another big contract for Franklin Raines, the oblivious fuhrer of FannieMae.
If any amongst the thinning crowd of kitco can tell me why short funds should not go balls to the walls against AOL, then I will shut up.
The only time I held a stock that had gommint celebrities as these, it went down 90%. Recall Michael Blumenthal at the convergence of Sperry-Rand and Borroughs. 29.5 to 2 in a wink.
Always short gommint types.

I'd also like to see how Colin Powell did in his only wartime assignment. How about the coverup at My Lai?

And the dollar collapses to the tune of one cent on the dollar.
Then the cookie jar full of US$100 notes might buy a week's groceries.
We've seen this happen in other countries: Germany and now Russia.

Squirrel -- The KEY is NOT to tie some funny-money value to the coin. When that happens and funny-money flows 'freely', things like gold-windows close and paper competes with paper for 'favour'. Simply stamp the weight on the coin ( along with a purty picture ) and call it done. It will buy what it will, EVERYWHERE!

Eldo
your 00:15 reminds me of Voltaire's sardonic observation after the John Law Scandal in France in 1720

"Paper money has now been restored to its intrinsic value."

I think the message of the day is SELL DOLLARS.

I'm not buying into the arguement that it's going to help Japan if the dollar takes a dump. Reason I don't believe that is that foreign investors aren't stupid either. If I were an investor sitting in Japan and I started to see the dollar drop, my first re-action would NOT be to bring my wealth back into Yen, even as the exchange rate became more advantageous, because I'd be thinking that they are BOTH falling relative to "zero value". I'd still run to Gold before I'd run to my own currency. With that in mind, I don't think the Japanesse markets are going to rally on lower US rates, because it isn't going to help them. In fact, it's likely to hurt them because it'll take away their competitive advantage over US companies in the world markets. A falling dollar will also destroy "asset value" within Japan, that is, anything denominated in dollars takes a hit. So what if the Yen trades at 90 Yen to the dollar if they're both trading at ratios of 350$US to the oz/Gold. If the dollar takes a dump, Japan is toast. You heard it here first.

I just bought 300 pounds of Golden Honey and offered to pay the beekeeper with forty US 1oz Silver Eagles. No deal. He can't get his suppliers and creditors to take the Silver Eagles for payment. Perhaps one day this will change if enough Gold and Silver is out there to be commonly traded in everyday business {and not just in the stratosphere of PM investors and international settlements}.

Well ive been buyin bullion for about a year now, and have a considerable amount for a young one ( 22 ) . Now im looking at some of the gold equities on the XAU. Is there a place where i can find info on these stocks? Do any have websites.. I will be watching the action on the XAU in the next few days/weeks. Can anyone recommend favorable golds? Looking for the entrance...

aurator -- It has/will-again be found that toilet paper has more value than paper currencies. It wasn't real long ago when they chopped 3 zeroes off of the ruble. Now even that is devalued 44.5 times. Let's see. 44,500 old rubles per dollar, times $300/oz of gold equals 13,350,000 old rubles/oz of gold. Now there was a 'savings' plan! paper is as paper does!

If Au is launching now, then the holders will be ahead of the non-holders, which is as it should be, considering the tribulations of the saps that hold it.
The gommints print the currency. Do you not love that name "currency"?
Does that not give you a sense of the "current" value, as opposed to the intrinsic value?
The truly fine suits will be had for an ounce. The rapid appreciation of gold versus the paper will give a window to the holders.

When the frenzy has passed, the price structure will stabilise.
Or, more likely, Eldorado's Jackboot thugs will simply move into the vacuum.

A 10-grain coin with nothing but weight and purity and certifying mint stamped thereupon {along with a nice design}. Please see numerous posts by Chas and I on this subject. One of which is was on Sat Sep 05 1998 12:54
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q3/1998_09/980905.125457.chaseeeee.htm

30 yr. Bond Down Rate UP
US Dollar Down

Gold ( CMX ) UP
Dec
298.00
299.50
297.90
299.20
+1.20
9/28/98
Good Night,

HighRise

"I am for anything that increases my Gold assets, which are considerable."

Squirrel -- Keep your coinage and spend the paper instead. They'll ALL come to appreciate the metals in good time. That, or they'll be totally reduced to bartering, which may partially be the case anyway.

I'd be happy to help you.

The best place for goldstocks info is Bob Johnson's "Goldsheet".

He has the best links to these highly speculative stocks.

Beware! The majors and the midsize are listed here with the links to their sites. Don't buy juniors unless you know precisely what they are up to.

http://www.goldsheet.simplenet.com

Durban Roodepoort Deep senior management will be visiting several cities in the USA and Europe to present the Group's results and plans for the future. Details at http://www.drd.co.za/.

I had to replace my hard drive and I lost all my websites stored in my "favorites" folder. Could anyone help me with a website for overseas ( non-USA ) markets? How is Nikkei doing tonight? Many thanks in advance....

Looks like you better get a move on it. Gold @ $300 soon! And soon there will be millions of people around the globe trying to buy a finite amount of Gold and Gold Mining shares.

Supply and Demand! What will happen when very many try to move into Gold?

ABX & NEM

I am out of here a big day tomorrow!

HighRise

Squirrel -- Getting back to your 1:02; What happens to Government and private debt. I would suppose that the attempt will be made to pay it off with cheapened dollars. Of course, much depends on who and how many are employed at that time. I rather suspect that it'll all go into real default and not get paid back at all. I also think that it'll be the least of anybodys real concern as survival would be the order of the day.

Try this one for a load of easy charts.

http://www.goldsheet.simplenet.com/chartzone.htm

haulpak -- http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Thanks Erle. You da man.

Try corn sugar both for beer and wine. I pay 15.61 for 50 pounds--pure dextrose-yeasties love it. I'm getting the best dark honey ever for 43.00 per 40 pound pail, in the bucket. I also get corn syurp--444 glucose for 19,81 per 60 pound pail. Ive been using the 444 for my Welches wine, 10 cans per 5 gallon with 2 for a flavor kicker before I bottle. Add a little glucose to sweeten beforwe drinking..as good as any. I'm using just barley malt for my beer now. Golden malt.

Never made the trip ( boring story ) last weekend...sorry - will try again Sat.
Anyone have a URL for gold-leaf retail/wholesale?

haulPak
you might start by bookmarking sharefin's page, it has a lot of good links

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm

Look this up for an interesting forecast!! http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeSPX.htm

Sadness is not the only emotion aroused by lost freedoms.
Biting my tongue.

Remember that it's "gold dash eagle"
http://www.gold -eagle.com/asian_corner/asian_id_charts.html

cut, paste, edit in the "address" box & press return

NIKKEI looked like about 13780 support bounce at 13550.

MM
Here you go:
http://www.kitco.com/product.sheet.html

It's quite close to home, and I only get a very small commission, eh Bart?

There is no forest - just these damn trees...
( I just wasted 20 minutes bouncing around the net... )
Many thanks..

Debt cannot be paid with debt. Demonstrate it to yourself with two credit cards if necessary.

Also, regarding the Seat of Absolute Power, observe who is in contempt of Congress and who is under investigation and who is being indicted. And what process ( impeachment ) is underway. Unless the Executive bombards the Capitol as Yeltsin did the Duma, this is the way it is.

Many thanks. Have bookmarked the site.

And thank you, as well.

For 6 gallons I used 12 cans of Welches, 5 pounds corn sugar, 5 pounds of regular sugar inverted with fresh lemon juice, and topped off with 3 pounds of honey.
This time I wanted a Grape Mead. The store bought "Peaches and Honey" costs a ridiculous US$11.99 per bottle. This home brew should be ONE dollar per bottle. But I'll have to wait 'till spring for it to be ready ( though "quality control sampling" may occur earlier ) .

There are the best peopleo here than anywhere on the web that I have seen.
I do not know much, but I will tell you what some of the other gents have taught me. --Not now, though. I have to go home.

To G-Nutz, If you think that the POG is going up at long last, you might want to limit your search for a gold equity to an unhedged producer. The major unhedged have risen a lot. Most will go more, but, the mines with the lack of foresight might come out the best. I still like Agnico-Eagle, ( AEM.NYSE ) . They have stunk up the place recently, but they should get to seven, if XAU makes 83.
"I always lose, and if you are stupid enough to act on my musings, then you might lose also." TVX too.

That sounds like some pretty powerful grog. Not as powerful as the picon punches i drank before dinner, however......

You might also consider Newmont as an unhedged major.....

They were best up near 11,000 ft about a week ago. Now those down at 9,000 ft may be prime. By this weekend the really low groves around Aspen and below may be in their Golden Glory.

Eldorado - paying debt with debt does work - it's called balance transfer from one card to another. And they even give a better interest rate for several months to sucker people in. This juggling game will end come Y2K.

Haulpak/ skwirl

"sack", in old English, is derived from sche, dry, as in wine. I discovered these golden words today, I hope you like them; wine as catalyst to action...


So that skill in the weapon is nothing without sack, for that sets it a-work; and learning, a mere hoard of gold kept by a devil till the sack commences it and sets it in act and use.

William Shakespeare ( 1564-1616 ) Henry IV Part 2

I sit at the feet of the master. BTW, what did the Zen master say to the hot dog vendor?

mozel -- You say debt cannot be paid with debt. Altruisticaly true. But it sure can be defaulted. One might say that the stupidity of those who hold it get 'paid' appropriately. As for Congress vs. the Presidency, I don't recall Congress writing executive orders and directives. Only funding them. And should Clinton ever feel like sending Congress 'home' because of 'emergency', I'm sure he could call up enough of the military to have it done. It would be most interesting to see who holds the biggest 'guns'; Congress or the President. Perhaps we would really see who IS on FIRST!

Perhaps you might tell me what 'positive law' means.

I wanted to compliment you on reading my simple mind and placing my thoughts in a way that could be written for the ages.
It wasn't me, though, it was mozel.
As Earl pointed out this past weekend, you are so much better when you do the mozel stuff.
If the central gommint abdicates, you will be able to peruse the NASA records at your leisure.
But, not before you restore the sound monetary system.
In the meantime, please add more to the idea that you expressed tonight.

It works with *my* credit cards, bub. I just shift $20K from one
to the other, and charge some more on the first!

The partners will not be receiving many millions they had planned on. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980928/bjy.html

haulpak
I am afraid that Auric beat you to that one! And, if memory serves, it was gagnrad who had the "perfect" reposte ( I Bowdlerise ) :

"Don't wait for change, change comes from within."

I'll have to continue all this fun later on. The sandman calls. Later all...

This article provides names. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980928/bhn.html

I'm using Lalvin 71B-1122 which will top out at 14% and leave me with a nice sweet wine. For more info on Lalvin yeasts see:
http://www.lallemand.com/brew/ref_chrt.html

For some really powerful grog, perhaps I should someday try WYeast 3021 "Eau de vie - good choice for stuck fermentations ( 21% alcohol tolerance ) "
http://www.heartshomebrew.com/yeast.html#dry

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/t000088249.html

Throughout his more than two decades in politics, President Clinton has dazzled aides and supporters with his encyclopedic memory, an uncanny ability to recall names, faces, dates and conversations.
Yet on television screens nationwide last week, Clinton could be seen telling a federal grand jury again and again that he could not remember details of notable encounters involving his relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky.
On 110 occasions during more than four hours of grilling by prosecutors representing independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr, the president responded with statements such as "I don't necessarily remember," "I have no recollection" and "I don't have an independent memory."


MEMORY LAPSES
In more than four hours of videotaped testimony before a federal grand jury, President Clinton testified under oath on 110 occasions that he could not remember details involving his relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky. Here are the responses Clinton gave and how often he used them:
"I don't remember" ( 54 times )
"I don't recall" ( 15 times )
"I didn't remember" ( 8 times )
"I have no recollection" ( 4 times )
"I just don't remember" ( 4 times )
"I couldn't remember" ( 3 times )
"I don't have any memory" ( 3 times )
"I've tried to remember" ( 2 times )
"I don't necessarily remember" ( 2 times )
"I have no specific memory" ( 2 times )
"I don't have an independent memory" ( 1 time )
"I honestly don't remember" ( 2 times )
"I certainly have no memory" ( 2 times )
"My memory is not clear" ( 1 time )
"I certainly don't remember" ( 1 time )
"I may have been confused in my memory" ( 1 time )
"I just don't recall" ( 1 time )
"I don't have the memory that you assume that I should" ( 1 time )
"I literally can't remember" ( 1 time )
"I can't possibly remember" ( 1 time )
"I honestly tried to remember" ( 1 time )

Concise summary of major stories, with links to the articles themselves. Highly recommended. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/cb.html

Might I recommend "Liar's Poker." by Michael Lewis on the inside dope on Merriwether and Salomon Bros.? There is nothing honorable in these Brokerage Houses, nothing honorable at all.

Paper will burn. Funny thing. Burning paper makes no distinction twixt stocks and bonds, nor gilts nor gold certificates.


Pyromaniacaurator

To all ..
I dont think WJC's memory is good enough for him
to be President ..

crusty
Well, I don't know. 'Member Reagan?

The markets are so far reacting remarkably calmly to the hedge funds crises. They are either in denial, or most of Kitco is reading this situation incorrectly. More details emerge almost hourly, and the news is always worse. I don't think even Ruben and Greenspan believe they have a handle on this.

Salty ..
Mine's not too good either..

AUric
IMHO the full ramifications have not sunk in yet. Not just facts are needed, but interpretation of those facts. We are fortunate at kitco to have fact gatherers and collators as well as fact interpretors. I just can't think back to how I used to think about markets before meeting the hundreds of fine minds here at kitco.

I thought I knew financial stuff, I thought I knew quite a lot, before I came to kitco. When I found the generous sages@kitco I really started to learn about these markets, and realised how little I knew. These days, I'm happy if someone learns a little from me, cos I learn so much every day that I tune into kitco.

Platinum ..
seems to be falling into a heap .. My "waves" say
that we could see as low as 315 .. YUK
Where is RJ when I need him ???

We have Silver *UP* nicely, and virtual real-time spot quote right now, right here, at the top of this site, at 03:16.

My friend in Hongkong tells me there is terrific credit-tightening going on. His line of credit was cut in half, even though he is in good standing, The raw material ( plastic ) we deal in has increased in price during the last two weeks, 3% to 10%, depending on type. Some of my friend's competitors have been squeezed out, yet no benefit has been felt. So, money is getting tighter, customers have to pay faster, and prices are going up. This is not a pretty situation, and I think this is just the beginning. Many years ago, when we last had the US$ depreciating ( and oil prices were going up ) , I made a very good move, and I am planning on doing it again. Go ahead and laugh. I will be investing in ( pre-paying for ) 60 tons of polypropylene. However, a few hours from now I will be in Los Angeles, buying antique silver, and mebbe a little gold, too.

all of today's posts and wanted to share this little tidbit before I hit the sack.

Quote Of The Week

House Majority Leader Dick Armey, quoted in The Washington Post, after

he was asked what he would do if he were in President Clinton's position.

"If I were, I would be looking up from a pool of blood and hearing my

wife ask, 'How do I reload this thing?' "

ChasaBar
I'd be most grateful if you could tell me what is polypropylene ( ain't it a plastic? ) and why you are stocking up. I am baffled, stymied. What am I missing?

Here are the Lease Rates calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.

MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild

GOLD------------1-Month----------3-month---------6-Month----------12 Month

LIBOR------------5.38--------------5.31--------------5.25----------------5.06

MGLR------------3.68---------------3.63-------------3.38-----------------3.24

Gold Lease Rate-1.70--------------1.68-------------1.77-----------------2.82

SILVER-----------1-Month----------3-Month--------6-Month-----------12-Month

LIBOR-------------5.38--------------5.31--------------5.25-----------------5.06

Silver Lend Rate--3.45--------------2.65--------------2.00-----------------1.75

Silver Lease Rate-1.93--------------2.66--------------3.25-----------------3.29

Regards........Dabchick

You are goooood....

04:00 you said, and 04:00 it was!!



Date: Mon Sep 28 1998 19:32 Dabchick ( Silverbaron ) ID#258195:
My ( newspaper ) FT will arrive in eight hours time. I will post actual lease rates here just after 04:00am Kitco time. And so to bed.... = Regards.....Dabchick

dabchick 04:00-- Thanks!

I buy 10 or 20 tons of polypropylene each month, and I/we convert it into polypropylene film, and then into plastic bags, which are shipped to me. I am in the business of selling such bags. If I prepay for a several-month supply, I can lock in today's price. When the price of material is in a rising mode, I can lock in what will be a great price in 30 or 60 days. If I guess wrong, then I've paid too high. It's basically the Charles Schwab idea, at work. I invest in what I know. I am also investing in Silver and Gold, and ouch, the learning curve is painful. [It would be easier for me to hold on to Warren Buffett's coattails if he would run in a straight line!]
Next weekend I will be panning for gold in the Sierra, energized by encouragement from Chas ( C. Devoto ) , one of Kitco's finest citizens.

At the present rates of movement, Palladium will pass Gold in three days,
and will pass Platinum in about twelve days. And now to sleep, perchance to dream of Dec 99 contracts....

If you want to pep up your wines a bit why not fortyfy them just add 1 teaspoon of brandy per bottle
after bottleing

cpo

ChasAbar
thank you. I understand your manufacturing strategies. Chas is indeed one of our finest. Chas managed to get me an assaying kit, from the US to NZ some months ago.. and we talk often about this 10 grain 1/2 dwt coin.

Thing is, Chas siezed upon an off-hand comment I made about minting my own money, and, with patience and persistence, he has brought this idea to the attention of literally thousands of people here at kitco and elsewhere. What started as an off-hand comment is actually, very close to become a reality. There are many of us in "the team" who are creating and analysing the possibilities of what may be the ultimate goldbug/freedom-believer's dream...control over real money by minting coins ourselves. And, we have come this far because of our friend, chas and his enthusiasm.

All
If anyone has any ideas and suggestions, or if you'd like to contribute your time, expertise, money or gold to the project, please contact chas:

cdevoto@abts.net

The 24 hour Kitco graph does not seem to be updating.

Does anyone know the overseas spot POG?

Thank you again for engaging on the subject of the Moon Landing Fraud. Too bad Trinovant did not read your posts. He could have saved himself the embarassment of bombasting about the ambient absolute Kelvin "cold" in deep space.

In your last post, you stated that a photo of debris on the moon would be a proof of the Moon Landing Fraud. Should it be necessary, I am confident NASA can produce one. They produced a great deal of photo evidence for your consumption at the time as you know. Kaper can probably get you a photo of the image of Christ from the Bras d'Or donut shop to go along with it. I fear another photo will add no more to our knowledge of the truth of this matter than what we already have from photos. ( By the way, photos of the hatch of the "Landing Vehicle" may be of interest to you since there appears to have been some slip up connected therewith. )

You also mentioned something about "greenhouse". All I will say in response is that the surface of the earth is a whole lot cooler because earth is surrounded by gases that absorb heat from the sun than it otherwise would be. If this is not self-evident, please study the hurricane, thunderstorms, and the like. ( A spacecraft for human beings in deep space must carry onboard the functional equivalent of an entire weather system, must it not ? And oxygen or CO2 conversion to boot. )

You also stated that if the consequences of the insulating vacuum of deep space were as I stated, then earth orbit satellites would be broilers like the Apollo broiler. First of all, they are in earth orbit and therefore not in the more completely insulating vacuum of deep space. The ionosphere extends at least 250 miles up. They are in something more like the imperfect vacuum of the thermos. Second, the earth itself is a shield for them when it is between them and the sun. They have a time in shade when they will radiate, and to an extent conduct heat away, while not receiving any. There is no shade in the space from the earth to the sun. Third, the upward operating range of equipment from the 98.6 F degrees point is much higher than it is for a human being. Human beings fail to operate above about 103 degrees, becoming sick and sicker. A broiler for a man is acceptable environment for equipment. Human beings do not naturally and comfortably cool by radiation as metal does.

Now, it is quite true that countermeasures in reflective material will reduce the absorption of some types of radiation. But, beyond the protection of earth's atmosphere, the intensity and type of radiation is full strength. The object in the space between earth and its moon is utterly exposed to every radiation in the whole spectrum from ultra violet to infra red, even something called corpuscular radiation which travels slower than the speed of light because it contains more heat.
There are no countermeasures protecting the moon's surface from any of this radiation. What amount of heat in excess of what it would itself radiate might a rock absorb there in a year exposed continuously to raw sun in a perfectly insulating vacuum ?

And there those guys were supposed to have been in their white suits with those little backpacks.

The Moon Walk Fraud was the Lie that was necessary to Win the Cold War. SDRer quoted from the Art of War to the effect that the art of war is the art of deception. The Moon Walk was art of war. It was necessary to deceive you to save you.

FDR declared war on the American people when he made them subject to the clauses in the Trading with the Alien Enemy Act of 1917 and Congress enacted the amendment. The very language has been quoted and cited in other posts by me. Residents are legally aliens. That has been documented by me, too. But, people don't mentally process it. It is easier to believe than to think. By law in America, the governed are aliens to the governors or vice versa if you will. Neat, isn't it, how the legal word Alien and the science fiction word Alien have the same sound and spelling.

Aurator,

It's been long time not active in the group..sorry!The raining
season will start soon.The lalina will face to face from south china sea.Think that will sweep all along the coarst from VIETNAM,CAMBODIA,THAILAND,MALAYSIA,SINGAPORE,BORNEO,INDONESIA..ect.Hopefully clean all the bad luck which happened since last july 1997!As many expert predicted:THE FINANCIAL CRISIS TURN INTO BIG MESS..with the mixed salad,contained of stocks slumps/currencies devalueation/jobless/politic/x/y/x///zzz,just mentioed!Currently,all the focus on south east asia in on MALAYSIA STAGE.Since the country have a bigger influnced to INDONESIA ( BOTH MOSLEM ) ,impacted to aNT size SINGAPORE,THAILAND ( Not forget the souther thailand has big group of extreme islam communities ) ,ect.I think the tension and situations over here is not so bright and positive.The show must go on......

here is the latest news from me:....
Malaysia Police Break Up Fresh Protest

By Azhar Sukri

KUALA LUMPUR ( Reuters ) - Malaysian riot police wielding batons
arrested several dozen protesters Monday while breaking up a fresh
anti-government demonstration in the heart of the capital.

Several thousand protesters called for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad
to step down and shouted slogans in favor of detained dissident leader
Anwar Ibrahim before riot police brandishing tear gas rifles, batons and
shields intervened.

Witnesses said riot police beat several dozen protesters on their heads and
backs after detaining them.

``They used batons to hit them on their heads and backs,'' Tian Chua,
speaking on a mobile phone from inside a police truck, told Reuters.

Tian, who works for human rights group Suaram, said he was observing the
demonstration as chairman of the newly formed Coalition for People's
Democracy, which groups opposition parties and non-governmental
organizations, when he was detained.

``They arrested a great many people and were very rough, beating
demonstrators as they held them up against police trucks,'' said Tian.

He said there were several dozen people in the police truck he was in
including a man bleeding from the head. Reuters correspondents saw
several dozen people detained. Police said they had no official estimate of
the number detained.

It was the fifth demonstration in Kuala Lumpur since September 20 when
sacked finance minister Anwar led 30,000 protesters through the streets of
the capital. Anwar was arrested on the same day.

Riot police had used either tear gas, water cannon or both to break up
three of the previous demonstrations. More than 150 people were arrested
in the earlier protests.

On Monday, they pursued protesters through the streets surrounding
Merdeka ( Freedom ) Square, the focal point of the civil discontent that
erupted earlier this month.

Helmeted police brandishing batons were seen chasing protesters up stairs
leading to an elevated light rail station and even into a restaurant.

Before police intervened, protesters shouted ``Reformasi'' ( Reform ) and
``Mahathir Resign'' and unfurled banners reading ''Mahathir Resign'' and
``Free Anwar.''

They called for the repeal of the Internal Security Act, used to detain
Anwar and more than a dozen of his followers.

Families with children enjoying a national holiday mingled with
demonstrators, clapping and singing anti-government songs, before riot
police drove them from the square, which local authorities have closed for a
week starting Saturday.

About 1- hours after the protest had begun, demonstrators had largely
dispersed, leaving police to man trucks blocking traffic from entering
Merdeka Square.

The district police chief, Zainal Abidin, said the protesters were detained
``for holding an unlawful procession and gathering without a license.''

Zainal told reporters after the demonstration that he did not know how
many protesters had been arrested. He said there were fewer than 1,000
demonstrators among the bigger crowd, estimated by witnesses at several
thousand.

``As long as they don't cause a disturbance, they can stay here for three or
four days. It is a free country,'' he said.

The latest protest came on the day before a special session of parliament
which opposition leader Lim Kit Siang said Mahathir might use to call snap
general elections.


Bye.......see you!
Errrr....look liked the GOLD is ready to turn north!!

Jin
I am pleased to hear you. No need to apologise, just post when you can... I have been concerned the "mixed salad "financial mess in SE Asia. it is a real gado gado!

In NZ we saw how the Malaysian government used sophisticated electronic blocking to prevent a NZ news team, in KL for the Commonwealth games, from broadcasting a riot in KL.

Yes, gold will head north in US$ as it has already in the currencies of SE Asia and Australasia.

Jin
If you can, please advise us if you have the necessities for life. Is there still fresh food in the market?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/el.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/eb.html

( previous post )
Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 00:09
goldfevr ( China tries to control its currency........in vain ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
( bbc: )


Monday, September 28, 1998 Published at 17:11 GMT 18:11 UK


Business: The Economy

China curbs currency
outflow

Many traders prefer dollars

The Chinese government has issued strict new
regulations to prevent the flight of capital and reduce its
exposure to foreign debt.

A State Council circular calls for stricter controls by
banks on the sale of foreign currency and for central
government control over the issuing of foreign debt.

At present, local government bodies can offer guarantees
to foreign-funded projects and issue overseas debts -
mainly through local International Trust and Investment
Corporations.

The government is afraid that if there was a run on its
currency, high foreign indebtedness would become much
more expensive to repay, as in the rest of Asia, causing
severe economic problems.

Protecting the yuan

Officially China has pledged to defend the yuan, its
currency, which is not traded freely on international
markets.

The renminbi is the version of the currency used for
international transactions, and its rate has been fixed to
the dollar.

But many Chinese apparantly believe that the currency
could fall victim to a devaluation, and are secretly moving
their money into foreign currency accounts.

In the first eight months of 1998, despite a trade surplus
of $31bn, China's foreign currency reserves hardly
increased - pointing to a serious leakage of money.

Estimates of the flight of capital flight from China in 1997
range from $15bn to $25bn.

And the black market exchange rate in Beijing has risen
to RMB 8.9 to the dollar, compared to the official rate of
8.28.

State crackdown

In recent weeks the State Administration of Foreign
Exchange has intensified its crackdown on illegal foreign
exchange dealings.

The government has made breaching foreign exchange
regulations a criminal offense. And it is trying to set up a
computer database linking banks, customs, and foreign
exchange departments to monitor the flow of hard
currency to exporters.

Many exporters are suspected of trying to hoard their
foreign currency in overseas accounts, sometimes by
falsifying invoices.

But with low yuan-denominated interest rates, and the
devaluation risk, they have little incentive to move money
back to China.

Observers say that administrative measures will have
little impact on the long-standing practice.

One reason China is tightening up its currency regulation
is to boost reserves, which will be needed in any defence
of the currency.

But despite the Asian turmoil, China's long-term aim of
joining the international trading system will require a free
flow of capital - and eventually a floating currency.

The move to tighter controls could prove both fruitless
and counter-productive.













Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage








Return to Kitco Homepage

( previous post )
Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 00:09
goldfevr ( China tries to control its currency........in vain ) ID#434108:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
( bbc: )


Monday, September 28, 1998 Published at 17:11 GMT 18:11 UK


Business: The Economy

China curbs currency
outflow

Many traders prefer dollars

The Chinese government has issued strict new
regulations to prevent the flight of capital and reduce its
exposure to foreign debt.

A State Council circular calls for stricter controls by
banks on the sale of foreign currency and for central
government control over the issuing of foreign debt.

At present, local government bodies can offer guarantees
to foreign-funded projects and issue overseas debts -
mainly through local International Trust and Investment
Corporations.

The government is afraid that if there was a run on its
currency, high foreign indebtedness would become much
more expensive to repay, as in the rest of Asia, causing
severe economic problems.

Protecting the yuan

Officially China has pledged to defend the yuan, its
currency, which is not traded freely on international
markets.

The renminbi is the version of the currency used for
international transactions, and its rate has been fixed to
the dollar.

But many Chinese apparantly believe that the currency
could fall victim to a devaluation, and are secretly moving
their money into foreign currency accounts.

In the first eight months of 1998, despite a trade surplus
of $31bn, China's foreign currency reserves hardly
increased - pointing to a serious leakage of money.

Estimates of the flight of capital flight from China in 1997
range from $15bn to $25bn.

And the black market exchange rate in Beijing has risen
to RMB 8.9 to the dollar, compared to the official rate of
8.28.

State crackdown

In recent weeks the State Administration of Foreign
Exchange has intensified its crackdown on illegal foreign
exchange dealings.

The government has made breaching foreign exchange
regulations a criminal offense. And it is trying to set up a
computer database linking banks, customs, and foreign
exchange departments to monitor the flow of hard
currency to exporters.

Many exporters are suspected of trying to hoard their
foreign currency in overseas accounts, sometimes by
falsifying invoices.

But with low yuan-denominated interest rates, and the
devaluation risk, they have little incentive to move money
back to China.

Observers say that administrative measures will have
little impact on the long-standing practice.

One reason China is tightening up its currency regulation
is to boost reserves, which will be needed in any defence
of the currency.

But despite the Asian turmoil, China's long-term aim of
joining the international trading system will require a free
flow of capital - and eventually a floating currency.

The move to tighter controls could prove both fruitless
and counter-productive.













Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage








Return to Kitco Homepage

As Japan lowered rates in an ever downward spiral and the US kept thiers high, much borrowing ( yes, including leveraged borrowing, Virginia ) tokk place in Japan to be invested in the US.

Now the US is about to start lowering rates, and there are signs that situations in Japan are on the way toward resolution. Resolution in a way that Japanese lower rates can not be maintained.

More unwinding to do.

I wonder if any hedge funds will be involved?

leases at 1.96% mean the silver carry may be borderline economic
again. Certainly, these lease rates indicate increasing liquidity in
the market, and are contrary to the rising spot.

We could be seeing the Funds backing off shorting activity
( precipitating the drop in lease rates ) . This would be
the classical intrepretation of dropping one month leases.
But I am concerned that the lease rate has dropped to levels
at which the silver carry can once again operate. We had
a market there for a while, with no silver carry. Now I'm
afraid the spot market is being set up for a hit by the Funds.

Ready at your watch I see.

Haven't heard too many bearish perdictions of late on this board - kinda makes me nervous. Sure would like to see what would happen if gold could get over $300. I'd like to hear the CNBC fraternity have to admit that gold still exists. What we haven't seen is the tracks of nervous shorts unwinding other than perhaps the 30 cent rise in silver. Perhaps it will start as you suggest with the unwinding of the yen/dollar/ bond carry.

Liked the comment earlier: "it would be easier for me to hang on to Warren Buffet's coat tails if he walked in a straight line."

Bill Murphy over at SI is saying he has it on very good authority that WB has been buying silver, again. Japan has been noted as the location. The one thing I remeber most about the WB story his his statement that he never bought on an uptick - damn good advice for all of us.

Let's get this thing sailing....

carry?

would you mind explaining your above quote on lease rates so i might understand. i could tell it was important, just not what it meant. sort of like existentialism when i was younger. thank you.

South African gold stocks off to a good start today - up 4.7% and above 1100. A close up here would be a very good technical sign - a break out of sorts.

John Disney - know anything about HGMCY - rather underperforming. Think I read here on Kitco that RANGY may be selling its HGMCY and DROOY to raise money for their own projects. Heard anything about that????

Just received from the wags in China, of all places, here's the quote as it appeared in the Arkansas Gazette in 1974 -

  Hammerschmidt flatly opposed resignation. "I think it's plain that the president should resign and spare the country the agony of this impeachment and removal proceeding," Clinton said. "I think the country could be spared a lot of agony and the government could worry about inflation and a lot of other problems if he'd go on and resign."
  Hammerschmidt said after the president's revelations Monday he was not sure whether Mr. Nixon's actions legally were impeachable.
Clinton, a law professor at the University of Arkansas, said there was "no question that an admission of making false statements to governmentofficials and interfering with the FBI and the CIA is an impeachable offense."

Just change Inflation to DEflation.

Good morning.

Exuberance seems to be the word in the overnight metals markets. That may be somewhat bearish in of itself.

Three scenarios:

1 ) The Fed, though saying it has adopted a strong bias toward easing rates, does not do so. The dollar comes roaring back the markets plunge and metals fall through the floor.

2 ) The Fed lowers rates by the anticipated 1/4%. This would probably be seen as the first of many baby step lowering over the coming months and would be bullish for bonds and stocks, bearish for the dollar and good for metals.

3 ) The Fed lowers rates by 1/2% or more. This would signal bad things going on behind the scenes, possibly a one-shot, and could trigger the taking of windfall profits from the bond markets, a short lived intense euphoria in the stock markets, very bearish for the dollar and very bullish for the metals.

Everyone have their bets placed?

It appears that several posters are looking for a gold stock to buy. BGR Precious Metals ( BPT.A ) in Toronto is trading at a 25% discount to Net Asset Value. The current price is about $10.85. This is a well run fund that currently combines both senior and junior gold issues. In a bull market the discount to net asset value disappears. ( 1993 )

The junior gold issues are all looking healthy for the first time since Bre-X. On every prior move in the XAU, they have not participated. This time they are gaining momentum. Remember that the juniors lag, as the public gradually comes on board. By the end, they pay stupid prices for this stuff. Queenstake ( QTR.to ) has gone from 20-30 cents to $3.00-$4.00 several times in the last 15 years. ( I bought some at 22 cents just to see if it can do it again )

With my last weeks prediction of the German election I was not too bad - now I miss the howling of the rspctd Kitcoista about that. H? Nada. OK:
1 ) Germany changed direction from a conservative to a socialdemocratic govt.
2 ) There will be a coalition with the ecological party, Joschka Fischer then is designated Minister of foreign affairs.
3 ) France turned back to socialdemocracy first, now Germany - Now lets talk about the unemployment rate in the EU.
4 ) Increased public spending is likely to fight unemployment.

And that all at the Eve of the Euro-launch. In fact, I miss farfel and his chant. So its me now to sing the accumulation-shuffle. ( WARNING: Usually a valid indicator for Gold to head south! )

why South African gold stocks have these goofy convoluted ticker symbols ( and there aren't even tickers anymore ) ? I mean, North American companies have symbols like HM, ABX, HL - short, tough, crisp. Manly!

Then these SA stocks have these dufus names like DROOY, and RANGY, and BUFLY. Sounds like the 7 dwarfs ( no offense, Alberich ) . I figure the best bet in SA stocks is the one with the stupidest name. That one will have the MOST value, most reserves, and lowest cost of production. Anyone know what the latest quote is for SCREWY?

My money is on No. 2

shorting ammunition. One year lease rates are driven by demand for
long term price hedging by gold producers.

If one month lease rates are very low ( as they were up to Thursday
last week ) , then the CBs are providing plentiful cheap gold to
people whose only motive can be to sell the gold market short.
The borrowed gold is sold, the money used to buy T-bills at 5.5%
and the gold returned one month later after being repurchased on
the spotmarket, usually at a lower price. This is called the
gold or silver carry. The profit consists of the interest on
the T-bill less the lease rate plus what ever was made on the shorting.
If CBs keep one month leases significantly below the T-bill rate,
then the silver/gold carry depresses the spot price. When lease
rates pass 3%, the silver/gold carry cuts off. Then you have a
real market. The gold/silver carry racket has been responsible
for driving pm markets to 25 year lows, and the leasing scam in
other commodities has brought the world to the brink of depression.

It is the ultimate perversion of the flat currency system. You
convert real assets to paper by constantly selling ( shorting ) .
Eventually either producers stop producing ( depression ) or the
system must re-inflate by dropping interest rates. This stops
the commodity carry, and there is an explosion in commodity prices.
That is where we are now. The US Fed is about to re-inflate by dropping
rates. Hope my simplistic view of the world finacial scene helps.
The free market system actually died about the same time as communism
in the Soviet Union. Leasing of pms was introduced in 1988.
Both systems are a farce. IMHO Take care.

There would be speculative shorting of the dollar almost immediately, but the true carry like we saw with the yen would have to wait for some unwinding and realignment of economies.

One of the things attractive about the yen carry was that the Japanese economy was deteriorating and the US economy was very robust. This reduced the risk of the carry.

The US economy is still very robust. So robust, in fact, that there still remains a chance the Fed will hold of on rate changes yet again.

For a strong dollar carry to develop we would have to see the US economy nose dive while some other economy or economies strengthen.

We don't see that yet. Even if such a situation did develop it would take perhaps a year or more. By that time we approach Y2K.

Y2K could easily be bullish for the dollar weird as that sounds.

bought vengold b wts yesterday way below their value, toronto was flat to down, golds were mixed, and coeur and hecla soared like an eagle.

Let's hope you are right and goldbugs get at least a leeeetle somzing out of the gradual turn of the continent back toward Socialismo. Don't forget to include Italia in the club. And I do mean club ( as in big stick with which to hit a citizen over the head with ) .

Human nature being what it is, a new cycle is probably on the way in. The leaning toward "conservatism" ( conservative statism, not necessarily "capitalism" ) of the cycle just passing has apparently created just enough wealth so that some feel it can be propitiously re-distributed. Ain't a mixed economy grand!? I have no doubt that if there are economic disappointments and dislocations in the U.S., the mood will lean leftward once again. We ALL know what that means for PMs, ultimately.

Get Real...Get Gold.

What is all this 5/8..9/16....4/32...1/8...1/4...Crap all about on the U.S.A. exchanges.

that was very helpful. i always understood bit and pieces. its 3
am where i live so back to sleep. the best series of posts i have seen in a while and it is in the middle of the night where i am and i still have a day job. thanks again.

those are the increments ( as in "increment weather" ) by which the dealers gauge their spreads between bid and ask. Imagine you are a cat, and just think of them as the depth to which the dealer's razor sharp knife blade goes into your subcuntaneous fat layer as he skins you alive. When nobody is looking, the numbers will tend toward the 1/4 and 5/8 variety. When the NASD, or the SEC get all riled up, they slice it a little closer to the fur, at 1/16 or 1/32. I always laugh when I see a stock trade or close at something like 103 1/32. At that price, couldn't somebody have just rounded off the damn 3 cents!???

XAU T/A
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-28%20XAU%20-%20daily.gif

Princeton Economics commentary on Gold and Silver
Gold: Looking toppy
Silver: Breakout
Click on Global Markets View ( left menu ) then #4. ( right menu )
http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

a long way to fall........

http://www.intersurf.com/%7Evor/induwke.html

Just a brief footnote re them belly-up funds:

It seems that every fund that goes broke, supports golds luster. In case they were short also the price.
But: At least according to austrias "Investmentfonds-Gesetz" ( kinda Investmend-fund-law ) , funds are allowed to put some of the money into derivates of any kind. Im not sure at the moment, but as far as I remember up to 10 % ( maybe even more ) of the total value of the fund. I mean - we have rather strict regulations here in Austria, so my hypothesis is: Maybe the next wave sweeps even some "honest" firms out of business. Who will be bailing out whom then?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/gy.html

The goofy symbols for South African stocks in some way indicate that ADR's are traded and not shares. Anyone know more about NASDAQ stock naming conventions?

I feel sorry for the cat but the dealer has to live also. He must have a high standard of living.
Pricing stocks in fractions is not only antiquated it is just plain stupid.

Got a kick out of your comment about the South Africans' ticker symbols. The fifth letter "Y" signifies there adr status if I am not mistaken.

One of the better buys I think is SGOLY - reminds me of something you might drink and be happy with.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/g0.html

Some Kitcoites may have the opportunity to get fresh news from the horse's mouth, so to speak. Durban Roodepoort Deep senior management will be visiting several cities in the USA and Europe to present the Group's results and plans for the future. Details at http://www.drd.co.za/.

has spot gold at $297.20 ....

Looks like it is about to test the 1998 uptrend line at a ratio of 55 ( Basis December futures ) If this breaks thru 55 then the major downtrend will be re-established, then its Hi, Yo SILVER! Maybe that's why WB is buying again.

You can watch this on the following link:

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/livechart?mode?symbols=

Enter GCZ8 /SIZ8 in the symbols block, use weekly chart to see the trend. Remember to add a space between GCZ8 and the /.

Mike Sheller
I think redistribution is not the point this time. It seems as if it starts to become important mainly to re-create jobs.
If you take a close look at ropean parties with any form of the word ...social... in their name, youll find a lot of different types. The "socialdemocrats" changed substantially in the past. They are usually conservative parties with annual pedestrian traffic every 1st of May. And "capitalism" is not public enemy #1 for them. But they guarantee a chance for higher inflation.
BTW:
Did you know that any time the socialist/communist hymn, the "Internationale" has been played, someone in ( I think ) Munich felt very comfortly, as he owns the Copyright. Thats advanced socialism.

If the Fed lowers rates this afternoon, which I presume it will, and the markets interpret this as bullish, we may see a short term drop in precious metals.

Although in the long run, lower rates would be bearish for the dollar and therefor bullish for the metals, there has been a lot of money come into the precious metals in the last few weeks as a hedge against uncertainty in the equity and bond markets ( flight money ) . This money will be anxious to return should market conditions be deemed favorable.

1 ) The Fed, though saying it has adopted a strong bias toward easing rates, does not do so. The dollar comes roaring back the markets plunge and metals fall through the floor.

*** AG "promised." He will lower rates. He has no choice.

2 ) The Fed lowers rates by the anticipated 1/4%. This would probably be seen as the first of many baby step lowering over the coming months and would be bullish for bonds and stocks, bearish for the dollar and good for metals.

*** Nearly always done in baby steps. 1/4 pts it is. This is already reflected in stock prices. Other events will move the market, including the Gillette news, the first high-profile 1990's-style "Nifty Fifty" to have more drastic lay-offs and restructuring than the market has already discounted in Gillette's stock price, now down 43% from peak price. ( And I was gonna short it in May the day my office-mate's 24 year old Market Analyst girlfriend told me to buy it because, "compared to other companies trading at that P/E, Gillette's the best company." That one got away, but there's plenty of other big fish to short in the stock mania sea. )

3 ) The Fed lowers rates by 1/2% or more. This would signal bad things going on behind the scenes, possibly a one-shot, and could trigger the taking of windfall profits from the bond markets, a short lived intense euphoria in the stock markets, very bearish for the dollar and very bullish for the metals.

*** Any precident for this? I don't recall a time when rates were lowered by .5% in one shot. Fear and loathing in both bond and stock markets if this happens. Means The End is Near. Repent! Agreed on dollar tanking on this news. Not sure about metals. Depends on the extent of the stock sell-off.

That's my $.02.

-EJ

Globex weakly up. No report on bonds. Dollar down. Metals very up. Oil mixed.

Could go either way. Certain amount of tension in the markets.

I wonder why?

Fred, I agree with you. The worldwide job equation is probably the greatest social problem we face, next to aids and other more immediate catastrophes. I am a gold-standard free marketeer, but that does not mean my heart is hardened to labor. Indeed, I think, and it may only be MY particular illusion, that a gold-based currency would increase savings and raise the standard of living of all people willing and able to work by the appreciation of their money rather than the depreciation of it. This would also allow savings to provide more and more for the elderly, making justifiable and humane social safety net programs more easily established by either government, or charity. But I shouldn't be preaching this early in the morning here.

skinny - Maybe there's a link here with what Fred is saying about jobs. Perhaps the world is becoming TOO efficient. Isn't there room for a little ( leeetle ) tradition, nuance, variation? Must everything be so mathematically precise and "efficient." Do fractions pose that much of a challenge to world progress? Are we to marginalize those who fractionalize until all they can do is simonize? Where are our hearts? Where is our tolerance? Where is tolerant?

Life is not just efficiency and maximized profit. I just heard how Gillette missed its usual earnings growth figure first time in 8 years. So they're closing 47 factories???!!!! Laying off thousands. It's the bottom line...yeah...but for WHAT?

No, I implore you...open up your heart and leave a little room for fractions in our lives...just a leetle. Please?

Aurator and donald,

Yes,we still have fresh food over here.BUT,we run out of u.s dollars cash currencies.It's difficult to buy cash papers in the banks though they have the rate on board.Some businessmen and traders try to change the local currencies ( RM ) to higher black markets rates.
The Reminbi....!!Been few times to inner china,XINKIANG,TIBET,desert area.Even that areas still prefered the ( F.O.C ) foreigner's official currencies and U.S!Though they cancelled the system of F.O.C,under their mind still prefered "GOLD" and "U.S DOLLARS".....!!
time to dinner,probably indian curry rice...!
rgds,
JIN

AG never comes right out and promises anything, but yes I agree that some kind of rate cut is very likely, and % is most likely.

Gold is holding up, but silver is downright hyper in the overnight trade.

to be encouraging to bulls on gold. In particular, the early morning sell off followed by very good strength and even more strength near the close encourages the hope that today will be the day that spot gold crosses $300 and XAU hurdles 80. If so, there is a strong likelihood that much better times for longs are close at hand.

Gollum, I am sorry that you think only 1/4%.

I had a long conversation with Gandalf last night and he says it will be 1/2!!

We closed above the 200 DMA for comex spot gold yesterday.

Rate moves by the Fed are largely symbolic. The markets determine the rates with the Fed being dragged along, kicking and screaming... Besides, does anyone really believe that a 25 or 50 basis point reduction in the Fed Funds rate really make a difference to the average person? Will it prevent you from getting the axe at your place of work? Off to ponder the nature of networking PCs.... :- ) ? (

Yes, AG always only suggests things. These suggestions mutate into promises through the repetition of hearsay in the press. In fact, I bet AG knows exactly how long it takes before a "maybe deflation is a factor" statement mutates into "AG is going to lower rates" in the market. The timing is kinda uncanny, isn't it? Here we are entering into what is traditionally the most difficult period in the year for the stock market, with all sorts of unusual bad news floating around this year, and there just happens to also be this Hand Of God news floating around -- AG to the rescue of world markets! And I'm sure he'll get it right, whatever the rate decrease number "should" be for the markets. After all, that's who he's doing it for, otherwise the timing makes no sense.

Hi-oh, Silver! Away!
-EJ

SSC has finally managed to get above it's 50 day ma - perhaps maybe now we'll see some real action???

Don't feel sorry. What will be, will be. Regardless of what I may think. I am just making my best guess based on the way things seem to be.

Looking at the US economy, any rate cut at all is premature. Unemployment is low, the market has become less overblown, and there is little or no inflation in wage/price levels.

It is the Fed's mandate to concern itself only with the US economy.

Mr. Greenspan, however, said that global conditions were beginning to have an impact on the US economy. The implication is that making a move to help the global situation was tantamount to helping the potential US situation.

Moving in response to external economic conditions in response to what are only potential US conditions is somewhat of a broadening of the Fed's mandate.

Thus I see it difficult to believe the rate cut will be anything but a small one at first, to be followed up on if conditions further warrent.

September 29, 1998

ANALYSIS-German bank giants spark Italy revolution

ROME, Sept 29 ( Reuters ) - German banking giants have burst into the hallowed temples of Italian high finance, setting the earth trembling under the feet of the hidebound old guard.

"The Panzers in the drawing room" and "German blitz" are just some of the recent headlines -- though editorials themselves warmly welcomed the shake-up.

For over half a century, secretive Milanese merchant bank Mediobanca has ruled corporate Italy, spinning an intricate web of cross shareholdings tying it to leading firms like the Agnellis' Fiat and insurer Generali.

Nor did the German players beg permission of the Bank of Italy or the Italian Treasury, the newspaper noted.

Spain's Banca Bilbao Vizcaya, for instance, was awarded 10 percent of Banca Nazionale del Lavoro by the Treasury in its recent privatisation, thus winning the dominant role in the "hard core" of shareholders formed before BNL's public offer.


Bank of Italy governor Antonio Fazio -- who has appealed repeatedly for Italian banks to become more international -- seemed less than overjoyed at Deutsche's venture into BCI, saying he was completely open to foreign participation but hoped "this operation...does not weaken our banking system."

More immediately, the much-discussed merger of BCI and Banca di Roma could be off because of Deutsche's opposition -- a harsh blow to Mediobanca, which had ardently desired the alliance as a way to bolster its position in an increasingly competitive merchant banking world.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/ITALY-BANKS.html

"itscha fluerixa compatnus yun rudeckin yamagonis." this tells it all....mOzel...he asks about you all the time...nice 23:02.

Mike Sheller
If I wore a hat, I would lift it. Brabo.

BTW
AG is a fox: What if he does not change them?

JIN:
It is nice to have you back!

AG to the rescue of global markets. It boggles the mind.

It should not be up to the Fed to create foreign policy. Their mandate is a domestic one. Methinks I detect strings being pulled.

I've been watching COMEX open interest in gold and I don't detect a whole lot ( if any ) short coming...

Is the best still to come ? I'd say that if the POG keeps rising slowly, one of these days we will have a grand pop.

Globex is coming up a little, bonds mixed, dollar down, metals up, oil down.

Following the idea of sell-on-the-rumor-buy-on-the-news I suspect we may see some dollar shortcovering this afternoon which would imply something of a metals setback. Until then, enjoy!

You also don't see gold moving above $300.

Well, better late than never.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-09/29/130l-092998-idx.html

on SnP, Gold and Silver? Since you're one of the best, we
all value your opinion......: )

for jims ..
I bought some harmony ADR in switzerland a few weeks
ago at $3.75 .. I think they are about 4.60 now .. that
not underperforming too badly. I think they have the
most potential of them all . I mentioned buying
e-dagga a while back on the sale of their gold slimes
to anglogold .. the share value was breakeven with
the conversion and ignored fact that dagga has 2 rands
per share cash PLUS platinum slimes plus mining rights
in a Spanish concession plus some other stuff.
Bought e-dagga at 6.05 .. now 7.6 mainly on the run up
in Anglogold stock.
for info jse-golds up 66 when I checked with rand at
5.81.

Read this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=612646422

Levitt Targets Profit Distortions

From News Services

Tuesday, September 29, 1998; Page E03

NEW YORK, Sept. 28Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt Jr. complained today of widespread company manipulation of financial reports and outlined a series of steps to halt "earnings management."

"Increasingly, I have become concerned that the motivation to meet Wall Street earnings expectations may be overriding common sense business practices," Levitt said in a speech prepared for delivery here this evening.

Corporate executives, auditors, and Wall Street analysts are increasingly part of "a game of nods and winks" in which financial

reports are "distorted" to meet analysts' projections, Levitt said.

In his broadest criticism of accounting problems, the top U.S. securities regulator said these misleading results jeopardize "the

credibility of our markets."

Levitt said the SEC soon will issue new rules and provide better guidance on existing rules to offer clear "do's and don'ts" on revenue recognition, restructuring reserves, materiality and disclosure.

In addition, the New York Stock Exchange and the National Association of Securities Dealers will form a panel to issue a report on improving the performance of the audit committees of corporate boards and formulating "best practices" in the accounting and auditing area. The panel, headed by John C. Whitehead, former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs & Co., and corporate governance expert Ira Millstein, is make its recommendations within 90 days.

For accounting practices that aren't acceptable, Levitt promised the SEC's enforcement staff will "aggressively act on abuses" at public companies that appear to be managing earnings through major write-offs, restructuring reserves or other questionable practices.

Levitt described an array of accounting "gimmicks," "hocus-pocus" and "illusions" companies use to manipulate earning reports. Specifically, he cited misuse of so-called "big baths," which are large, one-time restructuring write-offs companies use to disguise operating expenses.

Levitt conceded the problem isn't new, but he said accounting gimmickry is on the rise, fueled by the bull market.

I'm not so sure about the string pulling. There is a logic to a rate cut now, because of Latin America. Any bailout of Brazil will be rendered as ineffective as the bailouts of weak Asian economies while Japan was too weak to provide investment and a market for Asian goods. Same goes for the US and Latin America. The US has to continue to grow at its current rate just so we stay even with the current rate of economic deterioration in Latin America. If the US markets and consumer confidence decrease even marginally, emerging markets in general, and Latin America in particular, will collapse more quickly, which will accelerate recessionary forces inthe US, which will cause emerging markets collapse more quickly, etc., etc. This is the cycle the AG has to put the breaks on pronto. Maybe it's to early to "pull up on the stick" as you've said, and we soar too high, or maybe we'll still clip the trees. Or maybe we slam into the ground.

We oughta know my mid-October.

-EJ

per rangy management, they've sold all Harmony ordinaries, and plan to keep their Durban shares. This is not very surprising as Roger Kebble runs both RANGY and DROOY.

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangy.htm

There's a HARMONY icon on the left frame.

There must be one member of our group who has contacts ---Yes


COMMENTS-PLEASE

What do you think of the idea of having small gold coins over there. These can be mailed regular mail or insured if desired. I'm talking about 10 grain gold coins .99995 fine. Would there be some market there for these?? Many thanx for your effortd here and any answer you care to make. Cheers, Charlie

Oh, I agree. The cut needs to be done. It's just that looking at US figures alone one can't see that it needs to be done. Looking at foreign problems shows that it needs to be done big time.

So is the Fed beginning to be less myopic?

The few posts I have seen by people close to the LTCM fund and meetings pertaining to it's problems claim that LTMC had NO gold dealings either short or long.
There continue to be persistent rumors to the contrary with different rumors quoting different numbers.

Would you please jiggle the frames please...tia... ( action time in 7 minutes ) ,,,need frames...depend on them...etc...

Chicken man is willing to stick his neck out... hope the axe misses!
Don't think AG will do anything but give us a few well thought out
words of advice.
1. AG cannot have the "markets" start telling HIM what to do...that is not his nature.
2.If rates are lowered the people will spend wilder than they are now.
3.AG is not realy concerned about the yuppies IRA, ROTH,or 401's. He is more concerned about the outcome of LTCF and his cronies in NY.
4. Even though AG appears to a Goldbug in his earlier days ,he can still read the writing on the wall as to what the POG is saying. HE is not going to let that happen just quite yet. His cronies have to be given
a chance to cover their short PM positions.

IMVHO

Globex weakly up. Dollar down slightly but strengthening. Bonds mixed. Metals mixed. Oil up slightly. Commodities mixed.

Tension crackles in the air.

Or is it disinterest? Nyah!

Rumors, rumors, and more rumors. Me thinks that is as close as we'll get to knowing the dealings of LTCM. I'm guessing the vast majority of their positions were in the equities markets. Or is that a rumor?

September 29, 1998

PAL protests management-union accord

MANILA, Philippines ( AP ) -- About 1,000 Philippine Airlines workers marched to the presidential palace Tuesday to protest their union's approval of a management plan to reopen the national flag-carrier.

The board agreed Monday to accept a 10-year suspension of the union's collective bargaining agreement in exchange for continued management recognition of the union and a guarantee of no cuts in salaries or health benefits.

"They are asking us to jump into a fire or a sea full of sharks. We're given no other options," Capili said.

The union has been split over the proposal, with its radical wing saying a suspension of the CBA would violate workers' rights and expose them to management abuses.

The union will hold a campaign Wednesday in which workers will be asked to sign their names if they support the plan, union president Alex Barrientos said.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.PAL-Accord.html

United You Fall - Divided You Stand ( Be Quiet...Consume...And Die )
Corporate standards of Globalization EH!

The Toronto Mining Issues McClallan Summation Index continues to rise in a strong move, indicating good breadth. This is very encouraging.

The New Lows on Toronto mining issues have dried up to a level below the benchmark of 5 or less per day. This has occurred in 6 of the last 10 days. I would like to see it remain low, particularly during days of declining gold share prices. It is not quite there yet.

The trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is at 4576 this week. ( Toronto Gold Index, ^TGL on Yahoo quotes ) . This has served well as a stop loss in the past.

The 220 day MA for gold has been broken ( slightly ) , and I would like to see higher prices to confirm that breakout. The 200 day MA on the Toronto Gold Index has been easily penetrated to the upside. Since I trade shares, not gold, this is very encouraging.

Note: The New Lows on New York stocks are over the benchmark 75 issues per day. This is not healthy for stocks in general. Keep an eye on it.

So far, so good for gold shares and funds.

The most substantial news items and accounts by creditable sources indicate most of their dealings were in the bond/treasury issues market.

Will this be the day they cut rates and the bonds jump in the hopper.

Market opened up but weakened quicky. No real direction. Gold softened slightly. Silver firm.

Bailout of a Big Failure Raises Big Questions About Too-Big-to-Fail Policy
By Allan Sloan
Tuesday, September 29, 1998; Page E03
For the past year, as markets from Thailand to Russia to South Korea to Central America have taken it in the chops, the United States has talked a good game about the evils of crony capitalism. Our officials and financiers talk about how letting impersonal market forces allocate capital is all for the greater good. Thai peasants, Korean steelworkers and Russian urbanites are suffering as financial crises sweep their countries, but that's the price someone has to pay to keep capital flowing.

Then, what happens? Thanks to stupid investment decisions, bad luck and dumb lenders, an enormous U.S. hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management L.P. is about to croak. But instead of letting it die and wipe out its investors and managers, the Federal Reserve Board orchestrates a rescue, and leading lights of the brokerage and banking businesses kick in $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion to keep the fund in operation.

The argument, as you doubtless know by now, is that letting Long-Term Capital go under could have led to a financial panic, paralyzed bond markets all over the world, and set off a domino effect as failing institutions dragged one another into insolvency. That could well be right, and it may well have made sense for the Fed to put the rescue together. Certainly, the 14 institutions putting up those billions to bail out Long-Term thought it was in their interest to do so.

But even if you think it was right to keep Long-Term Capital from collapsing, there are aspects of the rescue that should bother even ardent capitalists, whose ranks include me. For one thing, the investors in Long-Term Capital should have been wiped out, or virtually wiped out. That's the way capitalism is supposed to work. Instead, the investors get to salvage about $400 million of their investment. How so? Because the 14 new investors are paying $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion for a 90 percent stake, and it follows that the old investors' 10 percent stake is worth $390 million to $400 million. Granted, $400 million is a lot less than the $4.7 billion the old investors' stake was worth at the beginning of the year. But it's $400 million more than they deserve to have.

My favorite part is that the new investors are paying Long-Term a management fee on the $3.5 billion or so they're investing. The fee is 1 percent of assets a year plus 12.5 percent of any profits. That's half of Long-Term's regular fee, but it's still a ton of money. Even though the investors in effect can get half the fee back, that's a lot of money for a failed management team. The explanation, which no one wants to give publicly, is that the new investors want to make sure that Long-Term can afford to pay fat salaries to keep good people on the job. Isn't capitalism fun? Sure beats being an unemployed Korean steelworker.

Call me cynical, but I think that leaving investors with hundreds of millions of dollars and paying fat fees to failed managers is Wall Street's clubbiness at work. Long-Term's chief executive, John Meriwether, forced out of Salomon Brothers Inc. in 1991 for not properly supervising subordinates who were rigging government bond auctions, is one of The Boys. Everyone knows everyone, everyone trades with everyone, and everyone invests with everyone. Executives of some of the rescuing firms have their own money invested in Long-Term Capital? Good thing that's not crony capitalism. Or conflict of interest.

The reason Long-Term Capital is not Long-Gone Capital is that it was too big to fail, thanks to $80 billion or so of borrowed money. It also had so many deals with other institutions -- call it $1 trillion worth -- that its sudden demise could have crippled some of those "counterparties."

But there's a policy question here. Laurence Tisch, whose family controls the Loews insurance-tobacco conglomerate, rightly points out that it seems inconsistent to bail out institutions that are to big to fail at the same time regulators are allowing bank and bank-insurance mergers that create institutions too big to ever be allowed to fail. "If you're accepting the doctrine that we're putting together combinations too big to fail, let's have that stated up front," Tisch argues. "Maybe you should make their capital requirements higher [than other institutions'], so they don't become a drain on the American taxpayer."
Congress will soon hold hearings on Long-Term Capital's collapse and the role of hedge funds. Weeping and wailing and posturing is doubtless on tap. But the problem posed by Long-Term Capital is larger than lack of regulation. It's that foolish lenders gave the fund far too many loans too cheap, and regulators didn't realize what was going on until it was too late.
And members of Congress might ask whether letting giant financial institutions combine is really such a good idea. Ironically, the same day that the Fed brokered a deal because Long-Term Capital was too big to fail, it approved the merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group Inc. Citicorp alone was deemed too big to fail when it got in big trouble a decade ago. The new $750 billion Citigroup will be so gigantic that it will put "too big to fail" into a whole new dimension.
Sloan is Newsweek's Wall Street editor. His e-mail address is sloan@panix.com
 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Compan

This stock is under considerable downward pressure and is experiencing new lows every day. . Has anybody heard any news? ( other than me buying )

Sorry I couldn't respond sooner to your message regarding the Earthquake in Cleveland on Friday. Don't have as much chance to post anymore like I did a few months ago. Just wanted to apologize for lumping you in with Peutz. I always thought he was an astrologer too. But you have corrected me and I learned something at the same time. Based on his record, he should probably dump the eclipse stuff and switch to astrology.

Always enjoy your posts!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/nat/newsnat-29sep1998-97.htm

Now it "vows not to devalue"

hmm.... seems it is becoming more and more necessary to keep the masses informed of this particular tidbit - how often have we heard this lately?

my 2 cents says that something interesting is coming up from that quarter ( maybe not right away but definitely this year )

Great info Mike! I believe, as others here may also have mentioned, that spot Gold has to break above the top line of its long term downwarding trending channel to confirm that the Gold Bear is finally, once and for all, toast. Presently this line is about $302.5 ( I believe. ) The mining shares have certainly been pointing the way. Have a great day ALL!
"Future. That period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true and our happinesss is assured."
------Ambrose Bierce, ( 1842-1914 )

This will be the last kick south for gold, then the pain for AG will become too high and rates must soften. I sold Barrick on Friday for a breather and am anxious of the outcome. The trend remains our friend and slow cautious moves will be followed by more radical swings by end of Ocotber in my op.

The S&P Futures are indicating the DJIA ( sm ) will extend
yesterday's gain by another 60 points this morning as all eyes
focus on today's FOMC meeting.

In the past few weeks you could have made money by trading on the opposite of quote.com prognostications.

You have to be quick, tho. Quote.com has already pulled this "wrong again" prediction off the site.

-EJ

Are people leaving $$ invested? If so, in what? What would you think would
be the ABSOLUTE safest!? How are you investing? All eggs in one basket? or
split? And would there be anything that could happen that would "make" you
re-think this and remove it from where you have it? If so, when?
----------
Great questions. After a lot of thought I still can't come up with
anything that I think would be ABSOLUTE safest. Under normal conditions
I would say U.S. Treasury Bills. You can now directlly purchase 3 month
notes in $1000 denominations. They are supposedly the safest investment
in the word, but then, the "world" might be changing a lot. Still, they
might be a good bet, if the U.S. Government can continue to collect
taxes and make interest payments on its debts. Medium case would be
they would stop interest payments for a while and them resume. Worst
case would be that they would default on the debt ( that would probably
mean that the government in its present form had essentially ceased to
exist ) .

In the short run gold, gold futures, gold stocks and gold stock funds
all look pretty good. Bear funds ( e.g., Rydex Ursa and Prudent Bear )
might do real well in the short run because they go up when the stock
market goes down.

Closer to the rollover date I'm not sure that any "paper" assets will
look that good. That would leave cash, tangibles ( e.g., firewood, food,
ammo, bicycles ) , gold and silver.
-----
Another suggestion I've seen is to buy and retain gold coin equivalent to
two to three mortgage payments. The thought was that, if things got really
bad, gold would increase greatly in value, and that this amount of gold may
then satisfy the entire mortgage. ( If it didn't, it would certainly pay a lot of it off--- )
------
Sounds like a good idea. But as another poster said, the banks may not
be in a position to collect on the mortgage, at least for some period of
time. Still, gold coins sound great to me. Gold is now selling for a
little less than $300/oz which historically is very low. There are
people who are thinking it could well rise to $500, $800 ( its previous
high ) , $1000 or even $3000/oz. As they say in investment circles, gold
has a great upside potential and a relatively low downside. Of course,
if we get into a deflationary spiral then gold, along with all other
commodities, may go even lower in price -- but my guess is that if that
happened, it would eventually come right back up again.

I hope other people jump in on this one. I, too, am curious about what
other people are doing.

Lady China doth protest too much.
-EJ

Len wrote after reading about Senator Bennett's comments:

Thanks mike, well now we know official, what we still do not know is how
bad and I don't suppose we shall know until it hits. I think the panic
that is slowly starting to develop will do as much damage as the downed
computers, I already see it developing on our Y2Kprep page.
------
I think it probably will do more damage, Len, but only because it will
happen before the computers get a chance to break. I think this is a
critical point and a critical period for people who are preparing for Y2K.
Len can feel it. We have turned a corner. We can all feel it.

I think everyone should strive to complete preparations by 1999/04/01. I
know, I know, they can't ever be complete but any time I get after that I
will consider gravy. Within six months, nine at the outside, it will be hard
to buy 30 kilos of rolled oats for $25. If you are thinking you can wait
until the spring to stock up, don't.

( Tom pauses to straighten the hubcap on his head. I wonder how much longer
it will be needed. Suddenly I think that maybe being one of the few nuts
wasn't all that bad. I've been looking forward to the day I didn't feel so
damned crazy, and I've suddenly realized that it is going to be a *lot*
worse when everyone is wearing one. Steady. We can face this but it is going
to get harder. )

I object to the term "panic" though, and I really take exception to the idea
that "panic" will cause any damage at all. Joe Public cannot be blamed for
anything that happens from this point on. In Jim Lord's column this morning
he noted how angry the Y2K aware were at an Atlanta conference that drew
3,000 people.

One question that was asked very sharply was "When are you going to have the
video tapes of this event televised on Georgia public Television?" Lord
describes the response:

"Before Mr. Hale could answer, applause began rippling through the crowd. As
it grew in intensity, people came to their feet. In just a moment, the
entire crowd of three thousand was standing, clapping like crazy, raising
their fists in the air and roaring. The display continued for many, long
moments. It was easily the most intense moment of the entire conference."

This is the new message from our leadership. "Shhh! People will panic." They
are telling us that Joe Public is going to cause more damage than the broken
computers they forgot to fix! ( Note: I do not blame Senator Bennett a bit.
He is a hero of Y2K. ) But this is not Joe Public's fault. This is a failure
of leadership in the political arena, in the media, and in companies and
businesses all around the globe. They failed, and now they are saying
"Shhh!"

After 1999/01/01 when 31 states are unable to pay UI benefits, I think Joe
Public will start taking this pretty seriously, don't you? The Canadian UI
system will fail soon after that. Hello? Wakeup call. I think maybe Larry
King might find some time to talk about something besides "Monica and Bill
sittin' in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g." I think there will be more than one
meeting where Joe Public gets to stand up and roar and shake his fist. There
will be a sea of hubcaps.

Joe Public cannot panic. Anything he does will be completely rational. He'll
decide to take his VISA down to the hardware store and food store and try to
buy things. Panic? That is smart. That is the only rational response.
Anything else would be irrational. *We* are behaving rationally right now,
are we not? ( Says Tom cinching up the chin strap on the hubcap. ) We are
preparing. When Joe Public tries to prepare it will be called "panic" and he
will be blamed.

The only reason Joe Public may bring it all down early with *rational
behaviour* is because our leadership has told him for years not to worry
about it because it will be fixed. They are *still* telling him that. The
only difference is that they used to believe it. Now they are telling a
teensy white lie because Joe will "panic" if they come clean because people
will try to protect themselves. "Shhh."

Does Tom have to keep his rage about this issue tightly held? Yes, but only
because rage is unproductive. Better to be safe than sorry: 1999/04/01.

Tom

September 29, 1998

Japan brokerages make contrasting changes

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japan's top brokerages Tuesday announced contrasting overseas steps, with Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. to establish a British joint venture and Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. bracing for drastic cuts in its operations abroad.

Nomura, the nation's biggest brokerage, said it would establish a London-based derivatives joint venture with the Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd. ( IBJ ) as part of their strategic alliance pact announced in May.

Second-ranked Daiwa said it would restructure its overseas operations, cutting its overseas work force to under 1,000 from 1,800 and its overseas outlets, which include branches and subsidiaries, to 18 from the current 30 by the end of March. The closings include offices in Toronto and Chicago.

Japanese brokers are suffering a double blow of stagnant Tokyo stock turnover and intensified competition from foreign brokerages under "Big Bang" reforms intended to liberalize the nation's financial markets by 2001.

Daiwa said it would halt banking operations at its units in Germany, Switzerland and Hong Kong and return its banking licenses in the three countries to the authorities.

Daiwa's U.S. subsidiary will close its offices in Toronto, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Chicago.

The brokerage will close subsidiaries in Italy, Spain and Poland and a branch in Amsterdam. Daiwa subsidiaries in Paris, Frankfurt and Bahrain will be made into branches of its London subsidiary.

In Asia, the brokerage will close representative offices in Bombay, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/BROKERS-JAPAN.html

Big Houses in Cahoots:
"Jim suspects that the government carries out its secret interventions mainly by utilizing the big houses as fronts to buy S&P 500 futures contracts whenever the stock market threatens to breach crucial support levels. They buy the futures in 1,000-5,000 contract lots or more, and may get extra leverage on their money by whispering hints about where the intervention points are to large hedge funds, which "not incidentally have been generous contributors to the Democratic Party".
The aim of the front companies is to precipitate a rally in an oversold market, which then can feed on itself and allow them to exit their positions into a rising market. Dr. Richebacher and Jim Daividson view that "mysterious buying of this kind turned the 1987 crash". But it won't work this time....The problem is that we're in a very different market and a very different economy today. Intervention in 1998 cannot be expected to save the day indefinitely as it did in 1987. The U.S. economy is in a much more dangerous state than it was 11 yrs ago, when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had just squeezed inflation out of the system. As a result, the work of the PPT will only make the final day of reckoning for the markets a more devastating one. Then ( 1987 ) it worked because the stock market crash was hitting a world economy on the verge of a synchronized boom. This time, the crash will hit an extremely unbalanced and most vulerable world economy."

If anyone out there wants an easy explanation of Hedge funds and Derivatives take a look at the following:
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_179000/179918.stm

Profit taking in the gold/silver equities in anticipation of rate cut.

JTF: re your 15.49 yesterday. The 1.25 tn figure is a red herring as far as guestimating LTCM's losses is concerned. It is just the value of the assets ( bonds, T-bills, whatever ) underlying their derivative positions. The consortium that has put up the rescue fund apparently believes that 3.5 bn is enough to save the day - so I presume that their calculations and projections tell them that that will cover the losses. ( Unless the situation deteriorates further - which I suspect it will ) . The significance of the numbers is ( a ) that the banks will be out 100 bn plus if LCTM collapses, and ( b ) the 1.25 tn indicates the total size of the markets that will be directly affected ( sharp unpredicatble price changes at least ) if LTCM collapse. The intent of the rescue as I understand it is an orderly voluntary wind up of LTCM to avoid those things happening. ( At least I HOPE that is what they intend! ) Max

You the man JTF! Bought Harmony and Drooy yesterday... the HGMCY I was considering... your gentle prod finally helped me see the light. Moving upo nicely this morning in spite of Gold's lackluster performance.

SSC made a nice gain yesterday too. Go Gold, go Silver!

September 29, 1998

LatAm mkts hold their breath ahead of FOMC meeting

SAO PAULO ( Reuters ) - Latin American markets were little changed in light trade Tuesday as investors held out for a possible cut in U.S. interest rates at today's meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting wing, traders said.

"We're just here resting," said a trader at a brokerage in Mexico City. Markets also eyed Wall Street,

A cut in U.S. interest rates could make emerging market investments more attractive, spurring investors to overlook the greater risk involved, traders said.

Equity investors continue to be concerned over a renewed wave of capital flight. Some $739 million was reported to have left the country's foreign exchange markets on Monday, the biggest dollar outflow in two weeks.

Over $30 billion has left Brazil since the beginning of August.

"There isn't any volume," a trader at a Mexico City stock brokerage said. "The whole world's just waiting for the Fed's decision and tracking the Dow Jones a little."

http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/MARKETS-LATAM.html

Anybody have current silver spot price? Is Bart's correct?

Why would POG go down in anticipation of a rate cut when POG almost always increases with lower interest rates?

Here's my thoughts for the day.
Dec SnP sell between 1090-1095, it may rally to 1100 to fill the gap.
XAU - topped fri made a 100% retracement rally yesterday which is common. it should now pull baack to the low 70's high 60's
dec gold - should pull back to 288-290
dec silver should make a short term high between 5.45-5.50

We are now getting close to G-hour. That time when Greenspan's
Fed makes the decision to lower interest rates. The bull have long
anticipated this move as the salvation of the bull market.

It seems there will be little left for the bulls to hang their hat on after
the anounced lowering of interest rates. Therefore:

Sell the anticipated-fact about 1/2 hour before the Fed makes their
announcement. Sell S&P futures at about 1:30 eastern time.

The crash to DJIA 3000 is getting closer. All members of the PPT
are now nearly broke -- the IMF, the large international banks, the
large brokerage houses, the hadge funds. There are no leveraged
buyers left.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

for your timely advice.......

I like your hurricane analogy for the US economy's role in the world economy. I'd like to suggest one of my own: a spinning top.

The top has to spin at a minimum rate to remain in a constant vertical orientation with the US at the axis. If the top slows, at a certain point it begins to precess. This precession began with the so-called Asian crisis. Further slowing of the world economy caused by more countries falling into recession made the top precess more. Even so, the movement of the top wass still smooth.

Then came the liquidity shock from LTCM. This caused the top to wobble slightly. Now we have a wobbling, precessing top. If the top takes more hits and the wobbling gets bad enough, the top will touch the surface on which it spins... game over. Then the world has to get the top back upright and spinning again.

My optimistic side says that all measures will be taken to avoid further direct hits, including direct government intervention in capital markets, if necessary, ala Hong Kong, to prevent more wobbling. The question is, what can be done to get the top to stop wobbling as much as it is already? A coordinated rate drop?
-EJ

YES, Yeltsin will be examined in Siberia. You wondered what effect the new German Social Democratic government was going to have on Russia. This material may give an insight.


KOHL'S DEFEAT TO MEAN FEWER D-MARKS FOR RUSSIA...
Russian analysts told Interfax on 28 September that the victory of
the Social Democratic Party ( SDP ) in the German election will
likely mean less financial support for Russia. Igor Bunin, head of
Russia's Political Technology Center explained that the SDP rose
to power "without making any commitments to Russia, which will
allow it to be more demanding as far as Russia's debt to Germany
is concerned." Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Politics
Foundation, said that "Russian should not count on getting loans
over the phone, as it did during the period of friendship between
Yeltsin and [German Chancellor Helmut] Kohl." Communist Party
Leader Gennadii Zyuganov hailed the SDP victory but added that
the only loans that new German leadership will extend to Russia
will be ones tied to specific programs and industries. JAC


...AND LESS WARMTH BETWEEN LEADERS
Both Bunin and "Izvestiya" predicted that a subtle cooling in
relations between the two countries will occur. According to
"Izvestiya" on 29 September, President Yeltsin made no secret of
his support for Kohl during a trip to Bonn in June 1998 and did
not adopt a balanced enough approach to the SDP and
Chancellor-elect Gerhard Schroeder before the elections, which,
according to the newspaper, Schroeder has not forgotten.
However, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said that contacts with
the SDP were "not interrupted even at a time when German Social
Democrats were in the opposition." He added that Yeltsin and
Schroeder met on several occasions, including in Bonn during
June. JAC

Tomorrow is the last day of the month of September!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 17:22
Puetz ( Stock Market Crash Update ) ID#226307:

By the end of September 1998, I expect blood in the streets.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH ) ID#226307:

If the market is down sharply tomorrow or Monday, we may get a
bounce for a few days. By the end of September, however, it's
DJIA 3000 -- still another 5000 points lower yet.

Date: Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#226307:
Nonetheless, the wave 5 down ( panic phase ) of the stock market
crash has now started. DJIA 3000 will be seen before the end of
September.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

We are now getting close to G-hour. That time when Greenspan's
Fed makes the decision to lower interest rates. The bull have long
anticipated this move as the appropriate loosening that is required to forestall deflation in the U.S. due to worldwide crises.

It seems there will be MUCH left for the bulls to hang their hat on after
the anounced lowering of interest rates. Namely, recent economic news re the U.S. economy that shows;

* Highest inflation adjusted personal income level in decades.
* Unemployment continuing to fall in spite of Asia flu induced cutbacks
* Outstanding resilience in the U.S. economy across all sectors, again in spite of world economic crises.
* Low inflation

Buy the anticipated-facts about anytime you see a good oversold condition...like now....and ignore the Feds announcement other than to realize this is a bullish development long term.

The crash to DJIA 3000 is getting closer. Should happen in about the year 2018 when the Baby Boomers start retireing en masse and start pulling their 401K chipds off the table.

All members of the PPT are now nearly broke -- the IMF, the large international banks, the large brokerage houses, the hedge funds. There are no leveraged buyers left. This is a VERY healthy development for a market that needs less volatility from speculators, and more of an investor base who is in for fundamental economic reasons. Shake out the speculators and let em go broke. We'll all benefit. We don't need them in the market... we don't need their leveraged bubble moves...the bull can proceed for the right reasons with greater health now.

Regards,

LGB

CABINET FORMATION INCHES FORWARD...
Russian President Boris Yeltsin both emptied and filled a few more
cabinet spots on 28 September,


...AS MINISTERS LOBBY FOR THEIR PALS
"Tribuna" on 29 September characterized the Primakov cabinet as
"chaotic" and the formation of an emergency economic program as
dangerously delayed.
....."Tribuna" is
financed by Gazprom. JAC


VASILIEV EXPLAINS RESIGNATION
Former head of the Federal Securities Commission Dmitrii
Vasiliev has explained his reasons for offering his resignation ( see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 28 September 1998 ) . He told reporters on
28 September that he wanted to draw public attention to errors in
the way the Primakov government is handling the country's
economic crisis and "making financial and political catastrophe
inevitable."
........ "Moscow
Times" is owned by Independent Media, which is owned by
Menatep. JAC

NDR TO MOVE INTO OPPOSITION?
"Izvestiya" on 29 September predicted that the return of
Aleksandr Shokhin to the leadership of Duma faction of Our
Home is Russia ( NDR ) will trigger the party's move into firm
opposition to the Primakov government

......." LUKoil and
Oneksimbank are major investors in "Izvestiya." JAC

SOLDIERS ALLOTTED BACK PAY
Prime Minister Primakov told President Yeltsin on 28 September
that two months' back wages have been paid to servicemen,
according to presidential spokesman Dmitrii Yakushin. The money
may have come just in the nick of time. Citing Federal Security
Service sources, "Segodnya" reported on 26 September that
officers in the 130th Far Eastern Division were prepared to block
the TranSiberian railroad with their tanks if their back wages were
not paid. "Segodnya" also said that certain troops, such as the
OMON, the Special Rapid- Reaction Detachment, and border
guards, have already been paid, creating resentment among other
servicemen. ."Segodnya" is owned by Vladimir Gusinskii's
Media-Most Group. JAC

LUZHKOV WOULD GAIN FROM CONSOLIDATION
"Kommersant-Daily" reported on 26 September that Moscow
Mayor Yurii Luzhkov would gain the most from the current plan
under discussion to reduce the number of Russia's regions through
consolidation. According to the daily, Russia's 89 regions would
be consolidated into 23 provinces,
......The sources of financing for
"Kommersant-Daily" are not known. JAC


COMMUNISTS DEMAND MEDIA SHAKE-UP...
Communist Party leader Zyuganov on 28 September told
reporters that while the Communist Party does not require that
state television be "nationalized," it must improve its compliance
with the nation's media law.

...WHILE FORMER TV HEAD PREDICTS STRUGGLE
In an interview with "Novaya gazeta" on 28 September,
.... Vladimir Gusinskii's Media-Most Group is said
to be a financial backer of "Novaya gazeta." JAC

RUSSIAN ECONOMY SLIPS TO BOTTOM OF CIS
RANKINGS
The CIS Interstate Statistical Committee reported that during the
first eight months of the year, the Russian economy performed
worse than that of any other CIS nations, according to Interfax on
28 September. From January to August, according to the
Committee, Russian GDP fell by 2.1 percent and industrial output
slipped 2.6 percent compared with gains in GDP of 0.2 percent in
Ukraine and 9.2 percent in Azerbaijan. The committee seems to
be relying on the CIS nations' own economic reporting, since GDP
in Belarus is recorded as having risen an unbelievable 11 percent,
while "economic tiger" Tajikistan registered a 6.5 percent growth
in GDP. JAC
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/1-rus.html

11:57...NYSE Halt - Newmont Mining news pending...

pending announcement...???

Rumors of the demise of the U.S. economy are greatly exaggerated. Ignore the rumors, buy the facts.

Bear rumors from hypemesiters, Booksellers, and Newsletter peddlers have been around for 2 decades. Imminent CRASH predictions...ditto. The facts have proved them wrong at every turn. Ignore the rumors, buy the facts.

Investors countrywide who have listened to crash rumor mongers over the last 20 years, have lost most of their investment monies believing in these "guru's". Ignore the rumors, buy the facts.

Rumor mongers who say that leveraged investments, debt, and worldwide economic conditions will surely destroy the U.S. stock economy ... are ignoring the facts. Namely, the U.S. economy is enjoying it's strongest and healthiest sustained period in HISTORY of the U.S. and is showing virtually no signs of succumbing to world economic crises. Ignore the rumors, buy the facts.

More Bearish sentiment exists currently, than has for years re the U.S. stock market. This is partly due to well founded fears about the effects of world economic currency and debt crises. Yet...with alll the excuses in the world to sell... the backbone of the U.S. market, Mutual fund managers and the little guy retirement investors...have made it clear they're in it for the laong haul. Ignore the rumors, buy the facts.

Stock Bear Guru's pushing precious metals were everywhere in the late 70's and early 80's. Those sorry investors who sold short the U.S. economy and it's productivity.... lost a bundle on metals and even worse, missed 1000% gains in equities. Effectively...they lost 95% of their investment monies. "Safety"? Ha!!! They lost everything they could have had....all by listening to the Bear "Guru", Gloom and Doom, crash coming tomorrow, end of currency as we know it, end of civilization as we know it.... RUMOR mongers. Sell the rumor, buy the facts.

Please read:
http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/redalert/

You remember that this was being discussed several months back. Well, it looks like the US, having come forward with no global leadership, has opened the door to regional solutions. We can expect reduced capital flows, more foreign exchange restrictions, in short, a shutting down of the global world of free trade. It broke, and nobody is looking to fix it. More and more, the free exchange of capital is being blamed for the world economic collapse. These accusations started in Malaysia, but have picked up steam and received serious consideration in the Financial Times, WSJ, and the hallowed halls of MIT.

And it is a world economic collapse. The Financial Times the weekend before last ran an op ed piece that clearly stated the only thing which stands between a recession and major WW depression is the strength of the "Euroland" economy. They already have written off the US as sinking. If Europa doesn't absorb the damage without collapse, it's curtains. These guys are not generally gloom and doomers. Gee, it's tough to be a G&D with all the competition these days, isn't it?

It's the end of an era. Mark your history books.
Namast

You mentioned a few weeks ago that a stock market crash had started in New Zealand but you never talked about it again in your posts! Why? What kind of crash is that? Is it visible only to a few? Is there something that we are not aware about? Is it a "hidden" crash?

Let us know please, thanks.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand.

I got an email from a futures trader I used to chat with on the net. He's really sharp. Note this is what he told me he was looking at. He often changes his mind as the situation develops whether to enter, exit or reverse a position.
==========================================

I am currently expecting it to top out on Oct. 1 ( this Thursday ) ,
probably at about 1105-1115. From there, I expect the bear market to
resume, taking it down to the 850 zone by mid November.

I think Gold will continue to decline moderately into February, at which
point a bull market should begin.

I think the Euro-currencies, bonds, and Euro$ will continue higher as
long as the S+P declines. So the rallies will presumably continue into
mid November, when the S+P hits bottom. I'm less optimistic about the
Yen and Canadian; they should both rally, although more moderately.

The soybean and corn markets have big turns coming up next week,
probably on Oct. 6. They are both due to make significant lows at that
time, particularly soybeans. It looks to me like they are going to begin
major bull markets, probably lasting into June/July 2000. I would
strongly consider taking a position next week

The DOW will NOT close at 8257.56
The XAU will NOT close at 73.67

There, back to watching the tension build.

Follow the trend?

Seems like you're advocating looking over your shoulder to see what has worked.

I bet the boys at LTCM or LTCB are doing lots of that at the moment.

You philosophy has definately worked well over the last 10 years.
But the writing is on the wall that tomorrow will not be the same as yesterday.

We are at the pinnacle of the pyramid.

Perhaps it is time to start looking forward rather than behind?
Sometimes shocking surprises lurk just in front of us.

Some of the worlds smartest investors are pulling their horns in.
Some of them have recently had them broken off.

Don't be caught out in the old school of thought.
The one where you look behind and all looks well.

A good captain keeps a good weather eye out all around the vessel.
But most importantly just over the horizon straight ahead.

And some of the best investment captains of the markets.
Have just run full smack into typhoons.
Whilst they were looking behind.

Perhaps now they would not be labeled as the best.
Just that they were at the wheel during the best of times.

Watchout Tsunami inbound.
( now haven't I heard that catchcry before? )

Kitco SLOW again!

Newmont Mining is buying the rest of Newmont Gold, to get it done they are issuing new shares. May temporarily deluteNEM?

HighRise

A goldbug is walking past a big wooden fence at the insane asylum and he hears all the residents inside chanting,

"3-2-5!
3-2-5!
3-2-5!

Quite curious about this, he finds a hole in the fence, and looks in. Someone inside pokes him in the eye. Then everyone inside the asylum starts chanting,

"3-2-6!
3-2-6!
3-2-6!

hey. cut it out already! making your point a few times is one thing but ramming it several times a day is getting too much.

'sides, if the ultimate Puetz contrarian rule works, if there ain't no crash today or tomorrow ( i.e. end of September... ) , and Mr. Puetz gives up in consternation and stops posting predictions on kitco, maybe the crash will come right after ...

Will either of you take bets on whether or not we get 1000 points or more down on the Dow ( from today's open, maybe ) in October? sheesh...

Has anyone noticed that silver started this move when the LTCM news came out?

Without a doubt look out for october a psychological crash month!

"Wisdom is often times nearer when we stoop than when we soar"
Voltair"!

laong haul [LGB 9/29, 12:38]

la ( l ) noun exclamation of pain, with overtures of horror

ong ngo, n- ) adjective Currently taking place: an ongoing horror

haul haul ( hl ) verb hauled, hauling, hauls verb, transitive
To pull or drag forcibly; tug.

Laong haul-equity investors cries of horror as they are pulled into the hot morass of melting prices

One of the best indicators of the American economy is vehicle sales.
The big three are predicting strong sales for the coming year. Normally prior to recession car sales slip drastically. After a year of doom and gloom the DOW is still at 8 grand.
My father and freinds spent 60 years waiting for the next depression that never came. They were well prepared for it and died rich.
The problem was many poor folk lived better lives and were much happier.
If a depression comes I will live with it, but I refuse to waste my life worrying about it.
I am not here for a long time but a good time,,,cheers.

She acknowledged that 2000 presents ''a set of problems we have never encountered before,'' but added: ''I am sure that we will make it.''
( I'd like to see her reserve a NY to LA flight leaving at 11:30 pm.. )

FAA wants to use grants for Y2K
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ctd549.htm

Can anyone find the text for this headline? - is it old ( on quote.com headlines )
"SEC's Levitt says "may" be more hedge fund losses"

buy your gold mining shares @ $285 spot gold...or now if you don't mind some possible downside near term.

The market already knows a lowering by the FED means sell...wait a few days...you'll get the picture.

Going to beat the small white ball...take care of AG this afternoon.

Tom

Looks like NGC holders will be getting 1.025 shares of NEM ( fractional shares get cash ) . Wouldn't you know it. I own NGC, which is now down $2 1/4. So, I take a drubbing on the news. Oh, well!

Highhopes

G-hour is fast approaching.
Put on your shorts. ( S&P )
Zip up your positions.
A final hour dive?

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Good trading folk.

Tom

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980929/co_newmont_1.html

NEM is exchanging paper for paper, no dilution. They already own NGC. This way they don't have to bother with dual SEC filings. Nothing has changed, they just save some moolah.

Steve Puetz: I appreciate your comments. Please put those on mute who might offend you.

LGB: The same goes for you, as well.

Without difference of opinions we would not have markets. Let's respect the opinions of others, especially if they are different from our own. That way, we might just learn something. Soapbox vacated. Next?

Nickmeister you said "And some of the best investment captains of the markets. Have just run full smack into typhoons.Whilst they were looking behind."

Nick, I agree that the "captains" of LTCM and their like minded cronies ran into typhoons they didn't expect by looking behind. Namely, putting big leveraged bucks into emerging markets bubble economies that were swollen by outrageous debt and junk bond financing...

But I strongly DISAGREE that these guy's represent the "Best investment captains of the markets" ...and I even more strongly disagree that their investment philosophies are even on the same planet as my own.

The type of investment "captains" I respect are value investors like Buffet, and analysts like Bob BRinker. Those who take a good hard look at all angles...Bob Brinker for example currently has perhaps the best track record of any analyst in the business. He has that record by looking FORWARD not back. The LTCM folks were doing the virtual OPOOSITE at every turn, of what Brinker has been recommending the past 2 years. Brinker was long U.S. Treasury's and Quality bonds. LTCM was short. Brinker warns against leveraged investment in risky markets. LTCM did the opposite. Brinker made strong warnings against junk bonds, and foreign equity markets, particularly those built on excessive debt to earnings ratios that were reaching as much as 10:1 and higher. ( Here in the U.S. we're closer to 1:1 ) .

LTCM was indeed backwward looking, doing everything wrong, and deserved to crash and burn. I'm sorry to see them bailed out.

However, those of us who are FORWARD looking, try and anticipate the future of the U.S. market based on current U.S. economic conditions, and how the market has performed historically given those conditions. That's prudent.

As a GoldBug, I'm hedging my bets by putting a portion of my net worth into the ( IMHO ) very undervalued Gold, SIlver, and Mining shares markets.

But make a bet right now against the U.S. economy? Not a chance! Folks following Puetzkian advice and buying PUTS, will lose ALL their money unless they're brilliant day traders. That is...if they have any money left to lose after following his advice this past few years.

BIO-HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INFORMATION SHEET
=======================================
MATERIALS SAFETY DATA SHEET
WOMEN - A CHEMICAL ANALYSIS

ELEMENT: Women
SYMBOL: Wo
DISCOVERER: Adam
ATOMIC MASS: Accepted at 53.6kg, but known to vary from 40-300kg

OCCURRENCES: Copious quantities in all urban areas
PHYSICAL PROPERTIES:
1. Surface usually covered in painted film.
2. Boils at nothing; freezes without known reason.
3. Melts if given special treatment.
4. Bitter if incorrectly used.
5. Found in various states from virgin metal to common ore.
6. Yields if pressure applied in correct places.

CHEMICAL PROPERTIES:
1. Has great affinity for gold, silver, and a range of precious
stones.
2. Absorbs great quantities of expensive substances.
3. May explode spontaneously without prior warning and for no known
reason.
4. Insoluble in liquids, but activity increases greatly by
saturation in alcohol.
5. Most powerful money reducing agent known to man.

COMMON USES:
1. Highly ornamental, especially in sports cars.
2. Can be a great aid to relaxation.
3. Very effective cleaning agent.

TESTS:
Turns green when placed beside a better specimen.

HAZARDS:
1. Highly dangerous except in experienced hands.
2. Illegal to possess more than one, although several can be
maintained at different locations as long as specimens do not
come into direct contact with each other.
------------------------

I don't think you'll have to wait that long.

I've got a few shoe companies picked out, but I've gone all to cash for the next hour or so.

Then I'll see if some panicked sellers might be offering any silver bargains.

I tend to agree with your opinion because they've been said already many times. However, in fairness to LGB and Realistic, it seems Puetz continually rams his stuff down our throats also. We are adults and can decide for ourselves what to do. But Puetz, in addition to his call, is also giving out trading advice. Unlike APH, he does not provide stops and a safety net if you will. He is just advising to put all of your money in one direction and sell now before it's too late.

If you review posts, there are those out there looking to kitco for trading advice. They may be beginners who are looking for some guidance. They would be fools to follow anyone's advice verbatum. However, even our latest gold super bear Glenn provides stop information so that people can try it out and see if it works, while still providing some safety in case it goes the other way.

I think that the strong objections with Puetz is the fear factor that he SEEMS to be trying to instill in his calls to try and intimidate NOVICE investors/traders to trade his way and buy his book/newsletter, coupled with the fact that since I have been lurking ( 1997 ) , he has not just been wrong, but waaaay wrong. That I believe is worse than LGB and Realistic providing a checks and balances type service, though sometimes it may be a bit much. Just my opinion.

Silver had been acting strange for a few weeks BEFORE that news came out. Strange logs floating upriver in the middle of the night.

Whadja expect? This is the doom and gloom site. Want upbeat on the stock market? Go to just about any other site, except Barrons Online. They're gloomy, too. That's because they're overcompensating. They were very upbeat during the last big equity bubble in the 1920s and were accused later of dragging the little guy to his demise. If I were Barrons I'd just tell them they shoulda been checking out the Kitco site instead for balance. Oops. I forgot. They didn't have the Internet then. If you wanted to hear an opposing view other than optimism about the stock market, you were out of luck.

I agree with you about the luscious appearance of the beautific US economy. It's like a dream. A perfect dream. AG said so not two months ago. Of coruse, he's changed his mind of late for some reason. But for the most part it does look like the US is on top of the world.

That's what worries me. I got out of the stock market in April for that reason.

Let me ask you this. Do you believe that US corporate earnings will increase until 2018 at the rate necessary to sustain current P/E ratios? At the top of bull markets that relationship can get out of whack on the upside, as it is now, and at the bottom of bear markets the relationship gets out of whack with P/E ratios well behind growth rates. History indicates that over a long time that stock prices maintain a price that reflects the average P/E ratio that's close to the average growth rate, with average stock price increases ahead of inflation. That's why it's good to be in the stock market for the long term. But there are times during that long period when you don't want to be in stock market. Such as at the top of market manias. That goes for gold and silver and tulips, too.

At what point in the stock market cycle do you think we're at? I get the impression you feel we're in the middle of a 35 year bull market that started in 1982 that's taking a little breather while the rest of the world does whatever its doing that won't effect the US too much and then continues on until 2018.

-EJ

All: Looks like buy on rumor, sell on interest rate fact also applies to gold equities today. I'm betting on short term rates down 0.25%. According to Bloomberg, LTCM was short gold 100 tonnes ( see USAGold site today ) .

LGB: Glad you bought some more of your favorite. My personal review of my graphs indicates that gold bullion is just peeking up over the two year downtrend, and if it stays over 295 for about a week, our bull market is under way.

With that statement, we have APH betting today that the gold markets will head down a bit. Now, APH is an experienced trader, and could be right, so please don't blame me if things head south for a while again.

If they do, I will be adding to my gold equities investment IMHO, as only an imminent market crash, or plummeting commodity prices will now keep the gold equities from rising. Now liquid funds 25% gold equity mutual funds, 12% oil and defense, rest cash. Will double gold equity holdings if gold rally confirmed.

I will be constantly looking over my shoulder however, as I don't want all of these hard earned ( and precious ) profits to vanish in an equities market implosion -- possibly with a gold 'fire sale' to prevent financial collapse.

Looks like food commodity prices may be bottoming, and cry0 itself is showing bullish signs of life. WJC's fading fortunes, and uncertainty with Russia will also boost gold.

Well Rave..if the darn guy would quit the nonsense, Realist and I wouldn't fell compelled to remind him of his status as world's best contrary indicator! As to prospects of a 1000 point DOW drop... I'd say the prospects of such were pretty high about a month ago... before Puetz came along with his September 4000 to 5000 point Crash predictions. Now the prospect for 1000 point drop is extremely remote. 600 points maybe, 1000, too much.

The ONE thing Puetz is right about... is that the market anticipates developments. Like the FED rate cut. If it is non exisitant, or even same as predicted, the market will probably fall later today. The market has already made it's rate cut move. The market has ALSO factored in all the bad global economic news...and is shrugging it off based on continued strength in virtually every sector of the U.S. economy.

Productivity remains high. Profits are stable. Unemployment dropping. Personal incomes rising to recent record levels. Inflation low. Banking sector healthy ( here ) .... industrial orders up, the list is long.

Under these conditions, folks aren't going to bail from U.S. stocks.


Skinny: I agree.... Gloom and Doomers miss the forest by looking too hard at trees. It's overall quality of life that counts. I'm FAR better off today having ignored their scenarios over the last 20 years. Even if their worst case scenarios came to pass tomorrow... I'd STILL be far better off economically by having ignored them the past 20 years!


SDRer: My typo's are inserted by a pro radical Goldbug conspiracy, all my posts intercepted and altered subtly for a subliminal effect. And now I have to go turn the globe on our phony little camera room set-up where we falsify the images of our supposed GOESWest weather satellite! ( All a fraud you know... )

Off to rocket science.

Go Loral.... uh also GO Gold, GO SIlver, Go HGMCY, SSC, DROOY

The key is in the anticipation. If there is a rate cut stocks and bonds are anticipated to rise quickly. Flight noney that had sought gold/silver goes back to cash to participate. Eventually after rates have risen, dollar weakens and gold and silver rise. Money returns after taking quick profit in stock/bond market.

In its biggest monthly drop since January, consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in September amid rising fears among Americans that global economic and political turmoil will slow the U.S. economy in coming months. The Conference Board reported today that its index of consumer confidence fell 7.1 points to 126 in September from a revised 133.1 reached in August. September's decline was larger than Wall Street analysts' had expected.
-------
As I said, not the rate drop but other news will drive the market today. The rate drop is already factored in.
-EJ

( Drum roll )
tappata, tappata, tappata....

On another note:

Other hedge funds may be at risk
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/092998/biz11_28604_noframes.html

What is needed is a known-well-in-advance-rate-drop. This allows the biggies time to unwind.

If all countries drop rates, it does no one much good, since the crux of the problem has been the US rate being too high RELATIVE to the lower ones and the economy robust compared to the weaker ones.

Lowering US rates gives a shot in the arm to those holding bonds/treasuries. Making it known in advance gives those who are short more time to cover.

"Buy Rosh HaShana and sell Yom Kippur." And it works! This year might be considered an exception, since the market has essentially gone sideways since Sept. 20- but as your aunt Ronit might say- "Imagine what it woulda done if hadn't been Rosh HaShana?!"

Anyhow, Yom Kippur begins this evening and tomorrow is the big day. Will everything be downhill for the stock market from here? October is the month of the bear, after all. Our 2 major-league crashes this century have both occurred in October. Hang on to your yarmulka!

- Steve

Ahhh, let it never be said I don't want to look at both / all sides of the issue, thus the post below. To answera bit of your question breifly ( I gotta run, much rocket science ahead today ) ... no I don't expect 28 to 30 P/E consistently... in fact I bailed from all mutuals at around 27 a year ago and moved all my 401K into money market funds... current correction phase is healthy in my view.

I felt risk / reward was not worth being in until recently. Now I've moved virtually all my MMF money into my own complany's stock ( very risky but it has do do with a VERY high Reward / risk ratio based on the stock getting extremely oversold due to a launch failure ) ....

It's my belief that overall, the next 20 years will be boom time in the U.S....and we'll see DOW 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 long before DOW 5000. Now for a small conterpoint... ( as if this indicator has ever meant much! )

Consumer confidence drops
More Americans see trouble six months down the road

By Rex Nutting, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:04 AM ET Sep 29, 1998
NewsWatch


NEW YORK ( CBS.MW ) -- Consumers are getting a little worried about the
economy, the market and the president, according to a closely watched
report.

The Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.1 points to 126 in September, the
Conference Board reported Tuesday.

Consumers remained confident about the current state of the economy, but
lowered their expectations about the economy six months ahead, the private
research group said. The index measuring confidence in the current situation
fell modestly from 172.6 to 171.2, while the expectations index plunged from
106.8 to 95.9.

"Tumultuous financial markets here and abroad and
unsettling political developments in the U.S. have
been major factors in curbing consumer confidence,"
said Lynn Franco of the Conference Board. Franco
said the figures suggest no major economic slowdown
and said consumers traditionally "rebound rapidly
from financial and political shocks."

The report came as Federal Reserve policy-makers
met behind closed doors to consider a reduction in
short-term rates. Many economists are calling for
lower rates to help boost confidence in the economy.

Consumers continue to find jobs relatively plentiful
and business conditions good or normal. But when
they look out six months, more consumers believe
things are getting worse. The percentage of
consumers who believe the economy will worsen in
the next six months grew from 6.5 percent in August
to 10 percent in September.

I believe we are sitting on a powder keg and if a couple cards fall gold will go thru the roof and fast.

What's Brinkers stance at the moment?

I think we all know of Buffett's stance at the moment.

I'd be playing my put money on going short at the moment.
Not saying how low it will go on this next down wave.
But I think we're in for a down wave real soon.

Did you notice the Tick oscillation topping out?
Fits in nicely with the Swing topping out?

We should now enter into a distribution phase.
And that would/could well be deadly.

Most global markets have not made healthy retracements.
Sentiment is decidedly cautious and not bullish.

And here we go just past the equinox into the fatefull October and earnings season.
I would hazard a guess that the writing is on the wall and the herd will spook somewhat.

-----------------------
MM
Another telling article.
Not only are they running out of time - already run out.
But now they're getting short on funds.
And with all these companies going to replace computers.
Perhaps there will be a shortage of them next year.

You should try out the Web Ferret.
http://www.ferretsoft.com/netferret/index.html
A classic search engine available free on the web.
It didn't find the article you were after but found 100's of others of interest.

14:20 DOW FALLS STEADILY AFTER FED 25 BASIS POINTS CUT: DOWN 43; S&P DOWN 1.
14:19 US DEC BOND FUTURE DROPS 8/32 TO 129-09.
14:19 US 30-YR TREASURY BOND UP 6/32 TO 105-23, YIELD AT 5.12%.
14:19 US 10-YR TREASURY BOND DROPS 13/32 TO 107-15, YIELD AT 4.63%.
14:19 US 5-YR TREASURY BOND DROPS 9/32 TO 103-14, YIELD A 4.41%.
14:19 US 2-YR TREASURY BOND DROPS 4/32 TO 100-00, YIELD AT 4.55%.
14:19 US 1-YR T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE DROPS 2.8 BASIS POINTS TO 4.294%.
14:19 US 6-MONTH T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE UP 13.2 BASIS POINTS TO 4.457%.
14:19 US 3 MONTH T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE DROPS 4.2 BASIS POINTS TO 4.333%.
14:18 DOW DROPS INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOLLOWING FED CUT.
14:18 FOMC: ACTION TAKEN TO CUSHION EFFECTS OF WORLD ECONOMY.
14:17 FOMC LEAVES DISCOUNT RATE UNCHANGED.
14:17 FOMC CUTS RATES FED FUNDS RATE 25 BASIS POINTS.

Looks like Uncle Alan is concerned about the Dollar's credibility enough to only lower by 1/4 point instead of 1/2 a point or more. CNN said that traders on the NYSE floor actually booed the news of a measly 1/4 point cut.

My friend at LTCM told me that yesterday was a down day for them. The only up day so far was last Thursday $ 180M and they gave it all back Friday. He didn't give me figures for yesterday but said this weekend that if the losses continue like Friday they would burn through that capital in 3 weeks. . Although they said 3 years for liquidation the plan, he thinks 3 months. He said that ML basically taken over the day to day operations.

The staff ( not all highly paid ) had the option of investing their bonuses in the fund and were "guaranteed" up to $ 15k per year. Now they are backing away from that and are talking about $ .07 on the $ 1.

He said the problem has been the street rigging bids lower knowing they have to liquidate their portfolios. The street was cooperative on Thursday but back to their old tricks Friday and yesterday.

I'

My friend at LTCM told me that yesterday was a down day for them. The only up day so far was last Thursday $ 180M and they gave it all back Friday. He didn't give me figures for yesterday but said this weekend that if the losses continue like Friday they would burn through that capital in 3 weeks. . Although they said 3 years for liquidation the plan, he thinks 3 months. He said that ML basically taken over the day to day operations.

The staff ( not all highly paid ) had the option of investing their bonuses in the fund and were "guaranteed" up to $ 15k per year. Now they are backing away from that and are talking about $ .07 on the $ 1.

He said the problem has been the street rigging bids lower knowing they have to liquidate their portfolios. The street was cooperative on Thursday but back to their old tricks Friday and yesterday.

Also, he said they had no gold positions.

My friend at LTCM told me that yesterday was a down day for them. The only up day so far was last Thursday $ 180M and they gave it all back Friday. He didn't give me figures for yesterday but said this weekend that if the losses continue like Friday they would burn through that capital in 3 weeks. . Although they said 3 years for liquidation the plan, he thinks 3 months. He said that ML basically taken over the day to day operations.

The staff ( not all highly paid ) had the option of investing their bonuses in the fund and were "guaranteed" up to $ 15k per year. Now they are backing away from that and are talking about $ .07 on the $ 1.

He said the problem has been the street rigging bids lower knowing they have to liquidate their portfolios. The street was cooperative on Thursday but back to their old tricks Friday and yesterday.

I'

JTF, sorry for not answering yesterday - it was late and I went to bed. I have 6 hours time difference with NY.
The nature of using log-normal distribution in volatility calculations is very simple. The first thing coming in mind when you want to calculate volatility is to use standard deviation. In practice it often gives good result. But theoretically this approximation is valid for normal distribution only. If security price has normal distribution, that ( theoretically ) means, that it may have negative value, and that is wrong. Log-normal distribution helps eliminate this fault.
I can agree with you - it is a big irony that a man, honored by Nobel price for his research of derivatives markets was among major partners of LTCM, burned by derivatives speculations. But who knows, what was his role in all this?

Carefull putting to many eggs in that Loran basket.
If y2k is nasty they could well go for a skid.

-------------------------------
Snipped from the web
-----------------------------------------------------
It is going to be no good anywhere, but the larger the place, the more
survivors. The reasons cities will be very bad is because the infrastructure
is more critical. It will be harder. But it is too late to move unless you
have a ton of money. Most people *can't* move. We cannot keep saying these
things because you may as well have written "Everybody in these cities are
dead."

"Everybody" knows that the cities are impossible just like "everybody" knew
the computers would get fixed. Even Yourdon makes the leap from an
infrastructure crash to "New York will be Beirut". It is a myth. He is
wrong. Beirut was about a civil war.

Sarajevo, Leningrad, Somalia are far better analogies. People without food
and water either flee or die.
Within a week they are very sick. Road Warrior is unprecedented in all of
human history. No way. After the crash, the road will be dangerous, and the
squirrel in his burrow will be safe.

Even if I am wrong ( and I am not ) we are way past the time when we can
advise people to flee the city. They have to convert assets. They have to
make househunting trips. They have to move. They have to start preparing the
garden. They have to stockpile. They have to re-establish themselves in a
community. The only reason someone should move now is that Aunt Tillie has a
farm. Otherwise they are out of time. I *have* to be right or anybody who is
in NY right now is dead. New York will have more survivors ( in absolute
terms ) than where I live -- ten times as many New Yorkers. Almost everyone
who prepares well will survive. It is the unprepared who will not.

I agree that rural is better than the city. It is harder to survive in the
city. It will take more courage to face the horrors. But staying is way
better than moving now. It will be people who are forced to flee for food
and water who are in big trouble. Stockpile. Burrow. Career plan.

Stuff nuts in your cheeks.

Tom

-3.14

HighRise

There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Now for the overnight wait...

Dropping the kids back off at school from the dentist, flip
on the TV to CNBC to the scene whose coverage of The Big Event
is somewhat understandable though a little absurd. So flip over
to CNN just for grins, a purveyor of news breaking and otherwise
in all categories from around the world, I would guess prioritized
in order of bandwidth importance to its viewing audience. Same
scene replete with follow-up tea-leaving.

Tulips wall-to-wall in sensurround, oh these humans.


On another note, capital controls instituted, hinted at,
being discussed as solution, and some undertaken autocratically
in acts of textbook despotism. Net effect, already taken effect,
black market currency exchange and black market capital outflows.
Result: criminalization of satisfaction of supply and demand with
increased transaction costs.

Oh, these humans.

There is not enough food in existence right now for every household to have
a six month supply of food. Nor is there enough cash in circulation for
everyone to have a 2 month supply. When/if the "general population" starts
to stock pile for y2k, the shortages will be very apparent and I am sure the
gov't will step in and place limits on how much cash can be withdrawn and
how much food you can buy. If you want to buy those 3 cases of tuna, I would
strongly suggest doing it prior to Feb 99.
April 1st is the date that some states, and I believe Japan and Canada,
start their next fiscal year. When they do a 1 year look ahead towards the
end of the budget period, they will be looking past 1/1/2000 - that could
find some of the problems in their software. July 1st, 46 states start their
fiscal year. Some of the problems may well come to light far in advance of
the actual 1/1/2000 date.
Currently, the gov't has said they will be compliant by 3/31/99. I think
most of us here have enough info to realize that there is no way they will
make that date. The gov't has already slipped that date once - when they
have to slip it again to June or Jul or when ever, John Q Public is likely
to take notice and think that there may be a chance that things won't be ok
come Jan 2000. The public may well start trying to prepare in March or April
of next year. Obviously, we need to be pretty much done by that time.
Hopefully, the Executive Order that lets the gov't ( FEMA ) confiscate all
your food in the "public interest" will not be implemented.


~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=Alternative Information=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alternative.htm
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=Year2000 Information=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k.htm
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=Gold Markets Information=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm
~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~
http://www.nethawk.com/~jcrouch/y2k-news.htm

With a negative reaction to the 1/4 point rate cut, it appears that we might very well be seeing the Dow starting its Wave 5 down. I expect this to retest the Oct 97 lows of just under 7000.

Joey 2 cents - I'm not saying that LTCM has gold exposure, though I suspect it, but really, what LTCM has in derivative exposure must be very secretive. I would think that only those at the top would know exactly everything that the company is involved in. Or even they might have an interest to misinform so as to close out positions.

Nonetheless, it is good to hear news directly from people like your friends as opposed to reading it on Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN etc.

Thanks for your post.

it was .25% - everybody expected it - he telegraphed it weeks ago.
So? What's the fuss? ABX goes down 2.25. Hmm, look at the US$ it's going down. The canadian $ is going up. Gold will go up. Why the panic?

I have my Machine gun, AR15, handguns, ammo, some coins, and
a gun safe and a year supply of Perma-Pak dehydrated foods on
order. Filling two liter pop bottles with water and chlorine
as I empty the soda out of them. Cans of tuna and Dinty Moore
to follow soon. Got some MREs too.

Question: where can I buy some Kevlar sheeting to put over
my windows in the event Y2K related riots break out?

Thanks. That is all.

I have my Machine gun, AR15, handguns, ammo, some coins, and
a gun safe and a year supply of Perma-Pak dehydrated foods on
order. Filling two liter pop bottles with water and chlorine
as I empty the soda out of them. Cans of tuna and Dinty Moore
to follow soon. Got some MREs too.

Question: where can I buy some Kevlar sheeting to put over
my windows in the event Y2K related riots break out?

Thanks. That is all.

You sent out a recommendation this afternoon to buy S&P puts. We will track them very carefully for the benefit of potential serious investors.

You have made several such recommendations ( to buy S&P puts ) over the last year and a half and not only the stock market didn't go down, but ALWAYS turned up strongly.

Will the same thing happen again this time?

As an example, the market exploded to the upside litterally a few days after such a recommendation of yours last November.

Give us your comments about this strange phenomenon and tell us how much one has to lose on numerous S&P puts before a recommendation of yours will finally become profitable.

Thanks.

Date: Wed Nov 12 1997 20:33
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
A test of the Gray-Monday lows is in progress. Already, many averages have broken down below the lows from that dark and dreary Monday 2 1/2 weeks ago. For example, London's FTSE Index, Japan's Nikkei, Brazil, and the advance-decline line on the NYSE -- have all broken into new-low territory. The rest of the US averages and global averages should break into new-low territory by Monday, if not sooner. Then, all hell will break loose. Be positioned in S&P puts before then. LAST CALL: The lights are being turned off. The intoxicated bulls are being sent home to recover from a nasty hang-over. This one will be a doozy. It will make Gray-Monday look like a picnic.

http://www.fgci.com/Fiberglass.html

happened to occur today ) . Just a coincidence? Hmmmmmmmmmmm...
********************************************************************

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 29

-- TOTALS
Gold 959,582 + 34,858 troy ounces
Silver 72,810,394 + 891,200 troy ounces
Copper 67,729 + 1,104 short tons
******************************************************************
Well, ole A.G. did what everyone pretty much expected. Now we see
how the markets do overnite! As to the Metals...APH may have it right.
I could see Gold pull back to 287 or so. This is how Prechter with
EWT see's it as well...Fox-man

China, the planets remaining communist superpower, appears on the verge of becoming gatekeeper of the canal....given long-term options for other facilities, including several military installations...giving Bejing a base of operations for warships and submarines only 900 miles from the United States... This unorthodox process was evidently determined by bucket loads of money from Asia - G. Russell Evans {retired U.S. Coast Guard captain and aviator}, Amercian Legion Magazine, October 1998, page 14-17.

But whats the big deal with 900 miles. The Chinese already have the Long Beach Naval Shipyard in California and supposedly are importing missiles through that port - ostensibly for satellite launches.

With leadership like this in the Oval Office, who needs enemies!?

Treasuries to rally. It make the situation worst. I believe 1/4 point drop is an indication of how one sided the rocket scientists' bets are and AG needs corporates to rally !!!

INDEX___OPEN____CLOSE____%CHG_____CHG
DOW____8108.84__8080.52__-0.349%__-28.32
XAU______78.46____73.50__-6.322%___-4.96
NOTE XAU is measured from prior close.

General: Please be careful with chlorine. First, the bleach used for clothing purposes may not be safe for human consumption, due to impurities. Pool grade chlorine tablets should be safer. Also, chlorine and bromine are powerful oxidants, and are hence poisonous.

If you use pure chlorine or pure bromine, please be sure to 'boil' off the chlorine/bromine before drinking the water. Chlorine will outgass from roomtemp water overnight as long as there is plenty of open surface area. Bromine comes out much more slowly. That is an old trick I learned when I had a freshwater acquarium. A cheap pool tester will tell you if there is anything left -- any detectible level is poisonous.

You are undoubtedly aware of the portable sterilization packs that backpackers use, or a water distillation apparatus. Unfortunately the commercial distillation apparatuses are expensive and need a boatload of electricity. Solar stills are hard to keep clean. I haven't decided what I will do -- I live in a ( generally ) rural area, and have access to plenty of water. I will probably buy a box of pool grade chlorine tablets and store them. Have a 3000 gallon brominated pool in the back yard. ( Home made, Vinyl lined ) . I still need to know what poisons might leach out of the vinyl.

I'm still trying to find a cheap generator. I can rebuild it if necessary. Two kids in college.

One advantage of being an experimental physicist -- I can fix anything from radar to toasters. Probably could fix a jet engine or with the right tools and the manual. The good generators are more expensive than I can afford. Am hesitant to buy surplus, unless I can find a source of spare parts -- cylinder sleeves, bearings, etc. Know of surplus items with good parts supplies?

Any idea if roller bearing cranks are really more reliable?

Also, any comments about LP gas operation? Gasoline stores very poorly,

and causes cylinder head compustion deposits. Diesel stores better. Some of those gasoline generators require pulling the head ever 200 hours or so, and scraping deposits. LP gas would be low maintenance, but if you are 'off the grid' you need a LP gas tank.

Platinum will find price support at $200 per ounce. That is the point at which I would feel compelled to prop up the market with a one-ounce purchase ( to meet my future fabrication needs ) . Secondary support would be present at $125, where I would be inclined to pick up another ounce to dollar-cost-average the pain felt by the premature purchase of that first ounce.
So...rest easy, for I shall catch you if you fall.

In 1907 there was a market decline and credit crash that hit
the big boys unexpectedly. When LTCM when under taking the "rich men"
with it I wondered whether history was about to repeat itself.

The decline in 1907 was called "The rich mans Panic" as they
literally headed for the exits.

Does anyone have more on the 1907 event? IT sure seems, given the
derivitives markkets basically being played by the rich, that panic
may not be far behind. The are capable of it because they try to panic
others under them. Now they may be afraid of eachother. Oh joy. What
goes around comes around. YAHOO.

Thanks, GD

pretty well in the light of the falling gold price...Drooy up 1/32 .. wonder why?...any guesses?

The commercials, LTCM and the banks lost a ton of money today by being short treasury bonds. The long bond yield will continue to decline until all the short sellers either cover their positions or default on their contracts. We are in a major long term bull market in treasury bonds. Treasuries will increase in value and yields will decline regardless of all foreign bank sales of treasury bonds. Since we are in a Confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market, as equities decline, long term treasury bonds will intensify their meteoric rise and will drive all the short sellers to banktruptcies. I will not be surprise to see the long bond yield at 2% by the end of 1999. I keep telling my friends to wait with the refinancing of their home mortgages because in the future they will be able to get a better deal. As I have posted before, we will see a major depression unfold by Q1-2 1999. I know it sounds crazy, but we have entered a runaway deflationary phase back in Feb 1998. By the way, I was a SUPER BULL on equities and bonds from Aug 1982 to Feb 1988.

$325 is probably all you will have left after the markets crash
and gold and platinum go over $1200 oz. But for that money you will
probably be able to buy 3 to 5 oz of silver. So keep it in a safe place
and have it ready to buy me out at the top. Thanks. GD

Realistic
I agree: It is entirely correct to put the Peutz' puts to the test. Peutz is different from other posters who have identified themselves in that Peutz sells his advice. As far as I understand it, this is his living. Therefore, if he is selling advice, it should be held up to the bright light of scrutiny.

However. Mr Peutz posts here at kitco, knowing that he will be scrutinised. He does not hide behind a silly handle ( like aurator ) . For that, I know he has courage, and I have never suspected his integrity, his mathematics perhaps, but not his honour.

There is ANOTHER class of poster/lurker here. There are, in the shadows, lurking, authors of other Gold and Stock Newsletters that refer to kitco from time to time. These Newsletter writers are too cowardly to come out of the shadows and place their work before this forum for scrutiny.

These newsletter writers ( gutless toads ) will not answer this challenge.

Mr Peutz is stalwart.

http://www.friend.ly.net/GEET/backup.htm

I've lived with and supported a generator of one stripe or another these past 18 years, junk ones included. If you can get by with one under 1000 wts your much better off, fuel consumption goes up heavy anywhere up from 1400.
I learned to love em series hondas and small yamahas,here are two discount sources..Norhtern- 1-800-533-5545 and Harbor Frieght-1-800-423-2567 for catalouges HF pays the freight.
I've been well served by used ones, I don't think its necessary to scrape out the head over once a year with daily use, only takes a half-hour. If they run out of the weather there isn't any great problem with gas.
Avoid Briggs and such like a contagious disease, especially 5000 wt'ers.

Squirrel: I know that members of Congress are aware of the problem, though it worries me when I see a former Chief of Staff dealing with Cosco ( can't remember the name ) .

There is another item - if North Korea can launch a multi-stage missle close to Alaska, so can China. So they have multiple rentry technology ( complements of US telecomms ) as well. And -- access to our much of our telecommunications codes -- complements of a wide open Commerce Dept and John Huang. Hope at least some of our military codes are still secure.

Over the next 20 years or so, things do not look good -- China is a 'young' nation wrt to their communist rule, so they are very likely to test our mettle in Taiwan and in the Middle East. And then there is 'Chaostan' as Mayberry calls it, and North Korea. We will need a strong defensive military, not just for our own personal defense, but also for our role as the 'world's policeman' as Britain did before us.

Our non-American fellow kitoites may grumble about our American territorialistic tendencies -- they are welcome to come up with a better solution for world peace.

What really worries me is that there still are physicist types in the US national labs, but few are working on defense these days. When you have such leaks as we have these days, the defense type scientists have to work overtime to stay ahead of the opposition. Hard to do when you are nearly broke.

Thanks for the post. Agree with you on everything.

Thanks, GD

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/nat/newsnat-29sep1998-97.htm

PSGQF
3:58PM
0.070000
+0.015000
+27.27%
456,500

Hey, JP. IT confuses me that treasuries increase in value as the yield goes down. Could you explain that to me?

AU
4:23PM
26 5/8
+3/8
+1.43%
133,200
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=AU&d=3m

HighRise

How big of a company is Pegasus?

The S.A. mines will report big profits for the 3rd quarter ending
9-30-98. That's my guess.

if the Clinton approval polls are true then the average American investor is to stupid to panic.

How would you characterize each of the following fictitious news stories? Bearish or bullish for gold?

Gold speculators must be saddened today as it was announced that XYZCountry sold another 20 metric tons of its gold reserves. XYZCentral Bank cited gold's continued low price was a sign that gold was "dead" as a store of wealth.

Or:

Gold speculators rushed to buy the 20 metric tons that XYZCountry sold today. Continued low price has been a god-send to the speculators who are capitalizing on the short-sightedness of the foolish XYZCentral Bank policy regarding disposal of its gold reserves.

Isn't it interesting how can the same story be interpreted in two completely opposite ways without distorting the facts at all? ie 20 tons sold; 20 tons bought.
Why doesn't the press catch on that for each seller, there has to be a buyer? Who is buying?

DROOY went up today because it is vastly undervalued compared
to any other gold stock in North America. When the next rally comes in
October you will see what a real rally looks like.

DROOY is the Wells Fargo of the gold stocks. That is why my girl friend
and I own so much of it. I don't push it because I own it, I own it
because I believe what I wrote above.

I'm like Putz, writing what I honestly feel is going to happen AND
PUTTING MY NET WORTH BEHIND WHAT I SAY. Don't know about PUTZ in that
regard. To be more specific my girl friend and I have bought a total
of 29,000 shares over the past 6 to 9 months. That is a hugh,
and I mean hugh, position for us. But we both see an opportunity
that just does not come along that often when all the ducks are lining
up. We will pay a hell of a price if we are wrong and there will be no
Fed around to help us out. That is why I have no respect for Greenspan or Merrywither or what ever the hell the name of that sob is.

We all takes our chances and pays our price, unless your connected. Then socialism is alive and well.

Thanks, GD

If you are having any doubt, just ask tolerant1...indeed, the earth's crust sags upon my passing.

You suggested:
"$325 is probably all you will have left after the markets crash
and gold and platinum go over $1200 oz."

Rest assured, I measure my wealth with a scale, and also a scorecard--counting the smiles and waves from those with whom it is my pleasure to associate.

Futher stated:
"But for that money you will probably be able to buy 3 to 5 oz of silver. So keep it in a safe place and have it ready to buy me out at the top."

Mine is an "All-gold show". In all likelihood I will buy the platinum not one day sooner than I need it. But as I tried to convey with my earlier post, such a price dip ( which I do not predict, NOR expect ( ! ) ) would bring me out of the woodwork. I hope that now you can find a smile for my attempt to play Atlas by sopping up perhaps two ounces of platinum liquidity on the open market under such unforeseeable circumstances.

http://www.wavefront.com/~Contra_M/pc/1957/3-12revolutionary.html

US treasury bonds are issued by the US treasury usually at par ( meaning $1000 per bond paying fixed market interest rate ) to raise money. These bonds will mature 20-30 years from date of issuance. As interest rates decline the value of the bond will increase above $1000 and the yield ( fixed interest rate divided by the new market value ) will decline. Back in 1982, these bonds were paying 15%, today the yield has declined to 5.09%. I hope it helps.

The Fed is merely following the market. The Funds rate is still 16
basis points above the 30 year rate. The 91 day T-Bill rate is 85
basis points below Funds. How irrelevant can you get? Jim Grant is
right: the bull market in central banking is over.

The stock is not trading in US, only on Canadian market. There is an average of 400,000 shares/day ( not sure of unit, millions or not? )

Pagasus is in Chapter 11 and the stock may not be worth anything, BUT, people keep trading it, and it responds to Gold price and other events as if it has value. I find this very interesting.

Chapter 11 is not not like Capt. 7. It is reorganization, protection from creditors, until the Co. can get it's act to together and I would assume in this situation - when Gold goes back above $300+.

I am tempted to buy a few thousand shares but the commission is more than the price of the stock.

HighRise

I think even RJ will be ready to sell his two ounces at that price : )

I would be telling folks to basically get the hell out and run for cover.
I agree with your fundamentals and agree that we are headed for disaster.
It does take guts to post the way you do here and you sure draw alot
of fire for that. You have conviction, and I am afraid in the near future your calls will be right on the mark. You, like most of the rest on this forum suffer from horrible timing ( including myself ) . But in the end will be correct. The stakes are extreme. Do not underestimate the ability
of these stock market guys to put up a good fight! They will need to be
drug away kicking and screaming.

Look at Nick Guardino ( or whatever his last name is ) . This man has been
wrong for the past 3 years. I do however happen to agree with him on his
view of whats coming.

Keep the faith. Thanks! O.L.

Of course, not speaking for my employer.

http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5865913

Here's another one:
http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/pubs/region/REG895D.html

I am hoping to get a solar water pump. There are some inexpensive ones. A small solar system like marketed for RV's would be nice for radio and some light, even a computer if internet is up. The next step up is a solar system that can also handle a small freezer. Refrigeration would be highly desirable, but would require constant generator use unless you were charging a battery set. If you invest in a battery set, you're half way already to a solar system.

I also like propane generators, easilly stored fuel in large quanities. Gasoline goes bad and diesel grows algae. The low rpm propane generators are apparently already on 8-week back order.

Bare minimum for getting water out of your well is a bailer, available from Forestry Suppliers for about $30. You have to remove the pump, but a few days without water would make it reasonable to pull the pump. You lower it into the water and pull out about 3 liters in a four inch well each trip. There is a ball check in the bottom of it. Of course, if you're less than 30 feet to water in your area, you can get water out of your well with a surface hand pump. Me, I'm about 40 feet to water, lots of it & good quality ( Floridan Aquifer ) . Best part about this area ( North Florida ) .

Boy, Jim Grant was right on da' money with his comments....very astute. We await the next shoe without the benefit of an interim equity rally. salud!

I have owned and managed a tool & die company for 20 years. For the last twelve years we have produced repeat tooling for nail making machines. After so many years we had earned considerable customer loyalty due to on time deliveries, good quality, and holding prices down. We lost this work
a few months ago and I found out finally that our customer is now purchasing this tooling from Russia at approx. 25% of our charges. I calculated this to be about 6% above my material cost. I could not compete with this if my toolmakers were at minimum wage.
The hand writing is on the wall in BOLD CHARACTER.

You may be right about the public being too stupid to panic. I was
when BRE-X hit. I did't panic because I didn't own any. Didn't matter.

Those who don't panic will lose big time. I did. But had a lot of
SUF and rolled that over when it was $18 into DROOY so I am still alive and ready to fight another day.

Those that don't panic will often sell out at the bottom in despair.
I have been there too. But not this time. I am holding all my Junior
golds till they come back over the next few years. Most of them are
very solid but a few will go by the boards. That's life in the speculation business.

Thanks, GD

Further confirmation of your statement,
check out the WWF, or whatever it is called, Wrestling Channel on TV.

They will believe any stupid act.

HighRise

The average decline today between the XAU and the
Toronto Gold Index ( TGL ) was 5.13%. The gold price
only declined roughly l/3 of 1%. Is this simply a big
chunk of profit-taking after a sizable run-up, or could
this move be signaling a lower POG in the short term??
Please lend your views to someone who is concerned. TIA

an entertaining read...enjoy!
http://www.verygoodyear.com/

Good to cross paths with you once again in these golden days of golden daze. The glow from the pile grows so bright I no longer need my nose to know my way home at night!
...departing on an unworthy quest...keep thee well these several days hence!

JP, You've been 100% consistent on the deflation prediction and it seems to be moving ahead right on schedule. I hung in there in the stock market a little longer than you did, until April of this year, because it still felt to me like the euphoria was too strong for stock prices to drop. Now there's no euphoria. What's left is a lingering hope that's turning to fear. Some have intepreted the widespread and growing pessimism as a bullish sign, since pessimism is a the hallmark of the start of a bull market. But pessimism just under the top of a very long bull market, with historically high P/E to growth rate ratios, is not a bullish sign. I see it as priming the pump for a major move down. Investors who were in the market only because they felt is was safe to do so because everyone else was in the market a seemed so secure in the market, these investors will leave the market when this attitude changes, when they begin to feel that the market is not a safe place for their retirement money. Keep in mind that most of these folks are not hedged -- in the true sense of the word. Not smart if you are in it for the long haul. They have stocks in mutual funds and 401k plans. Period.

I am not so sure as some that the "in it for the long haul" investor with 401K and mutual fund investments in the stock market is resilient in the face of market fluctuations. They have proven to be so far. But the longer the market takes to bring them the perpetual returns and safety they thought they were promised, the more likely they are to run at the next drop, even if it's as small as 500 pts.

-EJ

very wonderful to know that your demise was greatly exaggerated! ( and your presence/posting is GREATLY appreciated! ) ;^ ) ~ Salud! a ustedes! un GulpO y un PuffO to YA'LL!!!!

Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.45. The 233 day moving average is 28.58 and we have been below it for 21 trading days.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .250. The 233 day moving average is .24h and we have been above it for 4 trading days.

Its truethe last bag of gold Third in the House of ARAGORN dropped... it set off seismographsyup

I agree we are heading for a deflationary depression. This is caused by a boom in which ever greater amounts of credit were given to ever riskier enterprises.

We have reached a point where new loans whether public or private only make matters worse. A much larger % of these loans will never be repayed than anyone realizes. The liquidity crisis is spreading from Thailand and Korea to Russia, Japan and Latin America. It is even begining to wash onto our shores.

This can be seen by the dramatic drop in the price of financial institutions like banks and brokerages. Many of these institutions with huge asset bases will soon find themselves bankrupt.

As the economy shrinks the government tax revenues shrink and their so called expenses expand. The budget surplus is a temporary joke. The G7 will have to enter the debt markets with Billions upon billions in new debt offerings. This will drive up interest rates as measured by currencies.

In this environment money will be KING. But money is GOLD. Currency is just paper. As I said yesterday currency is just a commodity whose value will to soon return to its cost of production.

Buy GOLD!

almost as heavy as da' bag'o'gold dropped@studio7 last noche...........yeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! arrrrrrriba!!!! I'ma leeeeetle bleeeery, mate.

My Broker-Merrill Lynch is telling all brokers to square there short positions as quickly as possible .

May be they know something that we already know there is one -ell of a short position out against OUR precious metal

Has any body else heard this type of information.They are also part of the Bail-Out team for LTCM .Just maybe they know the truth ??????

My Broker-Merrill Lynch is telling all brokers to square there short positions as quickly as possible .

May be they know something that we already know there is one -ell of a short position out against OUR precious metal

Has any body else heard this type of information.They are also part of the Bail-Out team for LTCM .Just maybe they know the truth ??????

I don't think that there is enough evidence yet to say the rally is over. Nothing goes straight up after having been in decline for 19 years. I am sticking with it. The rally was too fast paced, a breather is healthy. I might have a different opinion tomorrow.

almost as heavy as da' bag'o'gold@studio7 last noche...........yeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! arrrrrrriba!!!! I'ma leeeeetle bleeeery, mate. ( of course, I am referring to golden hits...????? )

I assume you're a subscriber to the EWT web service....I haven't received their monthly newsletter which would presumably have Prechter's take on the gold pullback. Since he is very bearish on gold long-term, what does he think this will be, a trading rally to the low 300's?

Yvan Auger is forcasting a pullback to $285 or so with a $20 rally afterwards, but he isn't quite so optomistic on the gold mining stocks. An uptick to 100-110 on the XAU is his second pick....first pick is that the XAU 78 is ( was ) the top.

Thanx in advance for your input.

2nd para my words exactly its just a pity you are not with the Gold Council its hard to believe they are supposed to promote gold.

For every sale there is a buyer.so true and also easily forgotten.
the press are controlled by ? the same as mutuals ( units in the UK ) when gold has lept to xxx$ the adds will come out but then it will be near a peak.
What would we do without a daily fix of kitco.
I remember years ago saying Bankers were upmarket pawn brokers I did a very great injustice to the pawn brokers ( they understand collateral )
Go gold and hang on to iy

cpo

Hey StudioR- Still plowing the fields. Lost your e-mail address. Would you e-mail it to me as I have some new thoughts. timwatt@earthlink.com

yes any info needs to be sifted 7 sifted and again. Actually I AM suprised we have not been told the swiss planned to sell all of their gold along with europe.
bail out team "consultant" has to be the new career i would guess.
Sorry nothing concrete to add
just keep buying and encouraging others to buy GOLD & SILVER
cpo

All: I'm thinking of buying a bit more if it stays abot 295 for about a week.

All: Just saw this week's Time Magazine - Sept 28. WJC has been roasted as a liar who still has the presidency, but is powerless. Reminds me of OJ's situation -- acquitted, but his jail is still there -- can't escape it. One editorial was especially astute -- WJC should never have lied, and should have admitted his liason with Monica in January, as Dick Morris reputedly recommended. Good for gold/gold equities, bad for equity markets.

George: Thanks for the phone numbers on generators. I gather even cast iron sleeve Briggs are not worth it either. How about Tecumsah, or Yanmar? Kohler? These are fairly pricey new -- I'm looking for good used or rebuildable. Not the type at Sam's.

Spanky: Thanks for the info on fuel -- did not know diesel could grow organisms in it. With regard to solar water pumps -- I think permag DC electric motors would give you the highest efficiency for a solar system. Lots of them listed in 'Real Goods' -- Calif. They have a great 300plus page catalogue. Gives you all the specs about well head and electric ( solar ) pumping rates. Some will just slow down at low power levels. An AC induction motor simply does not work under those conditions. Real Goods solar panels too expensive, though. Also -- Home Power Magazine is a good source of information, but you undoubtedly know about that since you sound like you know about off the grid stuff.

I must admit the most reliable system is probably a hybrid lead acid/gas generator system with inverter. Some inverters ( Trace? ) allow variable DC input from the power source -- solar cells, or generator. Such a hyrid system would reduce the duty cycle of the generator, thus allowing operation at most efficient load all the time and least fuel consumption. Expensive to set up though, but when you are done you can go fully off the grid. Not hard if you are handy.

One thing to watch out with generators and invertors is whether the 60 cycles is truly sine wave. Some sensitive electronic stuff will not work, even when you would see no reason why not. Like computers. Also, transformers driven by non-sine wave sources have a nasty tendency to consume extra power from harmonics losses. Alot to be said for a DC system -- alot simpler and cheaper. Only problem is -- you need special appliances. Forget DC airconditioners, unless you are an engineer.

Thanks for the feedback. Fundamentals are still
shining, just like the metal.

My opinion is that when the stock market is about to make a move down, gold is manipulated lower so that Joe Guppy won't be programmed to think of Gold as an investment alternative.

When Gold starts slipping for no apparent reason, it may be that stocks are about to fall. Also, mining shares tend to lead the POG.

that Merrill-Lynch rumble you just posted is powerful stuff.......can we consider it reliable? salud!

LTCM's scary breakdown of derivative leveraging....$6 billion capital into $1.25 trillion assets demonstrates how ludicrous the situation has become. Conceivably 8000 tons short could be achieved with much, much less in paper capital.....so following this reasoning it easy to see how the price of gold could be held down artificially.

But eventually the buyers ( who have already made themselves known ) will show up to claim their gold....real question is what happens when these "sellers" ( bettors ) haven't, ahhem, got any gold sir....this IS the stuff wars are made of, make know mistake.

Don't sell what you don't own....lesson for pimply-faced gold shorties.

Special carburators are available for running generators from natural gas. Natural gas is compressed into the lines by motors run from natural gas ,sort of self perpetuating. But y2k will turn out to be a bunch of overblown crap anyway, makes a fine instalation for ice storms.

E-mail. I don't get the monthy newsletter. I guess I've been ok with
just getting the short-term updates, which come around 5:00pm cdt
on Mon, Wednes, and Fri.

Anyway, as of last Friday ( and it still applied Monday ) , Gold had moved
as planned by breaking through the 296 level. But a curve ball was thrown
last Friday. It went through 296 and peaked at 302.20 It then made a
small degree five wave decline. This means ( according to him ) that last
Friday's high marked the top of a B wave of an expanded flat correction.
This would have started at the 300.20 high of Sept. 11th. He said it likely means a decline toward 285.20 to 287.20 area as C wave unfolds.
Then there would be another strong leg of advance. Anyway, he is bullish
on Gold for the next several months ( a decline below 280 would turn the
intermediate picture back to bearish ) .
I can't recall his projections for sure, but I think it was 320ish for
Gold in the intermediate term. Accordingly, he still thinks Gold is
ultimately headed down to 180ish? Hmmmmm. I haven't read his "On the Crest of a Tidal Wave" book, but I guess I should. I also never really
studied EWT. I've just blindly learned though these short-term updates.
Also, I guess I'm bull headed ( GOLD BULL HEADED, THAT IS ) . I can't see
Gold dropping that low, even with this massive deflationary thingie. It's
probably from my always having thought, inflation would ultimately cause
the Metals to skyrocket. I still follow both sides of the argument as I'm
sure alot of us do. There's so many uncertainties out there!
You know what? There's also alot of imbalances out there, too! The chaos
is only beginning. I still think Metals will fly some day soon. The stock market will crash some day soon. And the U.S. dollar will continue
to sink. Whether it's from deflation, inflation, stagflation, I don't know. I'm not educated ( economically ) enough to really even argue one way or another. ok. Enough said about that. Now. GO GOLD!! GO Silver!!
Fox-man

Regarding your Merrill Lynch post - would you know if they are advising to cover gold shorts specifically or shorts in general?

I think today's action was just a 'buy on the rumor, sell on the news' event....everyone had already priced in an all-out run from the starting gate, based on the possibility of a 1/2% Fed Funds cut. We didn't get it, so down she goes.

Watch the action if we get down as low as the mid-60s on the XAU before turning back up. I will probably buy in if there is a break of the current downtrend ( to the upside ) on this leg. But if we get below XAU 64 and stay there, it could be long and painful journey to the bottom.

IMHO at a dow of 7500 we are getting in serious margin call territioy. I believe 7000 to be a point of unrecoverable margin call decline unless it can recover considerably in less than the three days for fed calls.
IMHO we'll see 4600 within 4 weeks of seeing 7000.

"But y2k will turn out to be a bunch of overblown crap anyway, makes a fine instalation for ice storms."

Oh well, one more optimist who knows it all. You are pretty confident aren't you? I wonder what is your confidence based on ...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/bkf.html

Got it. Thanks - That sort of fits with Auger's alternate scenario. In any case - we probably have until next week before it pops to the upside. Or maybe not ( ;^ ) ) . Go gold ( up ) .

G'day miro. While I got ya here, would like an update on your Y2K assessment. I think you were about a 6.5 on a 1 to 10 scale a few months ago? What do you think now? Any thoughts/comments appreciated.

September 29, 1998 - Spot Gold $294.40 down $1.10 - Spot Silver $5.34 up 7 cents

Technicals -

The bear dam is about to break. $300 gold is proving to be a tough nut to crack for us bulls. Producers and call writers ( see below ) are staunchly defending their territory. It smells like the dam is leaking though and $300 should fall soon. The open interest went up 2,105 contracts to 177,338 contracts on yesterday's very impressive comeback. That is what we want to see - new buying.

The silver streak is roaring along. Since our last bulletin about the Warren Buffet silver buying and our last Midas commentary, we received additional confirmation of our story from THC in Tokyo. He heard from other Japanese traders that Buffet was buying in London too. There is too much smoke here. A bonfire is brewing and the bears may go up in that smoke.

Fundamentals -

Some good stuff to report. Two of the most vociferous, and well known, bears have turned bullish in the near term. The irony is they are now more bullish for the short term than the long term bulls that I know. The first one is Andy Smith, the witty writer and former analyst for the Union Bank of Switzerland. He was bounced from the bank when they were taken over by another Swiss Bank. He was bearish almost all the way down as he encouraged his producer clients to hedge up the ying yang and gave them the reasons to do so. He was correct in his assessments of the gold market and had some happy clients. Now, for many reasons we hear he has turned bullish and is looking for $335 gold in the time ahead.

The other bull is notorious, and right on bear, Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch. He is looking for $315 to $320 gold in the next two to three weeks. His reasoning is that there could be " masses of delta hedge buying to be done by all the call grantors out there who are exposed to a rising price".

Stories abound about the Long Term Capital situation. One of our good sources says the word is that the exposure of highly regarded financial institutions to Long Term's difficulties is even greater than publicly reported. That is no surprise. Why else would the Fed have taken such extraordinary action? Morgan Stanley ( down 4 1/8 today ) is one specific firm that is being bandied about as having been really whacked by the hedge fund's failure.

Word is that our info, that Long Term Capital is still short gold, is correct and they are going to have to cover in the next couple of weeks. From Tokyo no less ,"Long Term is expected to buy gold next week", traders there said.

We know some producers, writers of call options, and maybe some official sellers, have been capping the gold price advance. It also makes sense to us that the "bail out boys" are sitting on gold too, to buy some time for Long Term.

Since the Caf opened, we have been harping on the notion that the gold loans ( gold borrowings ) are enormous and that liability of the bullion bankers could be staggering. If certain events occur at the same time, it will be like a herd of elephants stampeding and trying to exit through a 6 foot door all at once. That possibility is growing every day.

Why? Regulators are going to start cracking down on hedge funds. When they realize, if they do not already, the size of the gold loans, they are going to advise the hedge fund traders to cover some of their short positions. Two, when more bad news surfaces about Long Term, scared investors are going to reduce their investments in various other hedge funds, thereby causing the short gold borrowings to be reduced. Three, we know the lines of credit to the hedge funds is being restricted. All of these factors should cause short covering in the gold market.

Today's rate cut of one quarter point is bullish for gold as it cuts the carry cost, reduces the contango, and makes gold more competitive an investment against interest yielding competitors.

I agree entirely with your post but while it's one thing to be "stalwart" as you say, it's another thing to be smart at helping people to make money.

Yes, people who come out making predictions and making strong recommendations do have some courage and I have already mentioned it as early as last year but do "courage" and "guts" produce profits?

So of course, to test and to ask questions is the right thing to do and I'm doing it by always being polite and without even judging. Readers can do that.

While I don't expect Puetz to answer my posts, I will certainly continue to ask him several questions about all of his predictions of crashes and "blood in the streets" scenarios because my messages end up on the same screen as his calls and so it puts everything back in perspective.

Human beings have short memories and smart investors and/or potential investors have even shorter memories because fear and greed come into play. So to bring back past crash predictions and recommendations of buying S&P puts posts ( which turned out to be loser puts on all counts )
may help lurkers and investors to take more prudent decisions.

Internet is fair and Puetz can continue to post for as long as he wants and I never ridiculed him personally. Instead, I focus on the content of what he sends out and so far, everybody is able to realize if his calls made any money or not. That's all what I'm interested by when I notice strong recommendations to do this or that in this vast business world of ours. People tend to find comfort in some super smart analysis that justify some predictions but the last word should always belong to if it's a winner or not because when people initiate an investment, it's not to be right or wrong about a particular analysis but to make money! Not everyone can afford to buy S&P puts for 2, 3 or even 4 years before being right. Spending money in options as "insurance" for months and for years hoping that something will end up happening is not for the majority of investors as many many people found out by not having any money left today to take advantage of a current particular interesting event that could become profitable.

It's our right to ask questions and to bring back past predictions in order to educate ourselves even further.

Keep up YOUR interesting stuff that I try to never miss.

Many years ago, I became very distrustful of government and governments in general. Having read a great deal of history, I became convinced that a person should be prepared for self preservation outside the country or within a different district of the country in which he resides. Many years ago I set up residences in 2 foreign countries and have made 2 alternative residences in my own country. I have access to aircraft if needed and snowmobiles, 4-wheelers, and even horses, if needed. Rationing and supplies, I have looked after long before I ever heard of Y2K. I think anyone holed up in 1 location with all their guns and freeze-dried food, protecting themselves from the riots is nothing less than a complete idiot. I intend to be long gone in such an event and sit back eating my prime rib and enjoying life while the idiots are killing each other. If people in this world are smart enough to bring us to the state we are, mechanically and electronically, including landing a man on the moon, I doubt very much if the world is going to be completely shut down by some computer chip. I am sure there will be some occurances that may cause problems, but I doubt very much if its going to cause any world-wide catastrophy worthy of stocking up of guns etc. Having said that, I will go on record as saying that Y2K will turn out to be a bunch of over-blown crap. If it turns out that I am wrong, I will gratefully leave Kitco, never to be heard of again. I expect the same response from any who are of the opposite opinion.

Allan Greenspan came out today, and as expected announced its 25-basis-point rate drop, citing among other reasons "declines in U.S. financial markets."
To think that Greenspan made the "Irrational Exuberance" speech when the
market was 20 percent lower than today!
The Fed has almost never made only one move in rate changes. More cuts in two months.

Pc's don't need a pure sine wave to function properly. Almost all PC's use switching power supplies. A square wave, sine wave or quasi-square wave will work just fine. Most UPS 'condition' the sine wave so that it isn't so pure a sine wave, but they do clean up the voltage supply from those deadly voltage spikes or drop outs than can wreak havoc with PC's.

"The important action was away from the S&P. The financials were drubbed for about 11/4 percent ( I say drubbed because you don't expect the banks to get hit on a day when interest rates are trimmed ) . The brokerage firms were hit as well."

Ted Arnold and Andy Smith bullish on Gold!!!

Please forgive me while I recover from my cardiac arrest!

Live Long and Prosper.

It's so hard to pick a floor. Remember when 15,000 was supposed to be the magic meltdown number for the Nikkei? My sense is that at about the time one comes to the conclusion that a particular number is the point of no return, the market has already gotten out of the way of that number, pulling out of leveraged positions to avoid the hit.

This has been a hearty bull, shrugging off one horrid event after another over the past year. Think about it. First Thailand fell and now half the world is in recession. Corporate earnings are falling in the US and Europe. The world economic situation is so serious that the most conservative Fed in history has dropped rates when, really, there's no evidence in the US economy of a reason to do so. Still the stock market maintains a price high above the 1996 "irrational exuberance" level.

Keep an eye on Latin America. The IMF has stated, "Latin America will not fall!" What they mean is, "Latin America CAN'T fall."

Latin America will bring down the US asset bubble.

What about gold? To describe the aspect of gold market in one word, it is "malingering."

-EJ

whooooooooooooooa baby!........thanks! salud! G&P to YA!!!

You sent out a recommendation to buy S&P puts early this afternoon and not only there was not "final hour dive" but S&P puts that were bought in early afternoon are already a bit into the red at the close of the trading day today.

What's next?

Should those puts be kept even if there was not final hour dive?

Any chance that those puts will become worthless again like all the ones before or it will it be different this time. Will the markets go dowm for sure tomorrow and the rest of the week in order to help these puts to be back into the plus side?

Please let us know, thanks.

Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 13:34
Puetz ( G-HOUR ) ID#226307:
G-hour is fast approaching.
Put on your shorts. ( S&P )
Zip up your positions.
A final hour dive?

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Would you please email me re your tooling facilities? cdevoto@abts.net I am not sure exactly how you are set up, but maybe something will work, Charlie

Hmmm. Things are looking better, but we've been here before...

Not only was today's .25% already priced into the stock market at the open, but the additional .25% that's coming in November was priced in at the close.

This bull is in tough shape.
-EJ

Goldman Sachs is postponing its planned IPO until the market improves. Abby Cohen is out talking about how bullish she is, and her firm can't go public due to market conditions.

if Y2K is as bad as I think it will be, I will leave Kitco.
gb

Great commentary... QUITE A PLEASURE READING IT!

Abbey is in sales. Her job used to be easy. Now she's gotta WORK for her commissions.
-EJ

A closer look. The downtrend lines are being broken to the upside. Perhaps we need a few more hedge funds to go belly up, down, or whatever ways the bellies of deceased hedge funds go.

Many thanks for the posts on the Panic of 1907 and the history
of seting up the Federal Reserve. It seems that no system is perfect.
Too much credit caused the 1907 panic so the Federal Reserve was set
up and then came 1929, and now 1998.

I just think that the human being likes to party once in a while. He
also likes to build. Money is secondary. There will never be a totally just system. Even a gold coin system would cause plenty of problems.
In the end we all know one thing. When credit gets too much it
deflates with the usual consequences.

Gold will and is being seen as a safe haven.


Thanks again, GD

Australian Gold Index ( XGO ) up 36% since 1 Sept. 1998 - amazing.

APH is NOW bearish looking for 288-290? HUMMM? I'm turning slightly more bullish. This is the second day in a row that gold closed above the 200 DMA! I'm thinking of going long with a stop under today's low. If we break $300 we could see the $315 area quickly. Ted Arnold turning bullish also!? What's the world going to??!!

If your assessment of Y2K as "overblown crap" refers to "end of the world as we know it - lets buy guns and head for the hills" I am on your side. If you mean "no problem at all", than we disagree ;- )

One more time...

I have spent the last 8 months watching my gold position going down, and down some more. It amazes me that some people here can point to all these analists that are bearish gold and give every reason as to why gold is going down. Never in the past 8 months have a set of circumstances been [ in the past 8 years] more favorable for an explosive move in gold.

I have come to realize that many who claim to be GOLDBUGS are actually GOLDTHUGS, and they never miss a chance to point out every thing negative about gold. If just a fraction of the news about gold short positions is true , an expolsive condition that could take gold liimit up just might be at hand.

One thing is for sure, at this point in time is not a time to be out of the market, not if you really do believe that gold can ever go up. Maybe gold does go down from here, but one think I trully believe is that when the move comes it will be fast and leave many grasping at straws.

Ima' gettin' justa' leeeetle excited! yes/no?

studio.a'pickin'&a'droolin' uhHuH.

abby! bring me some coffee! ( abby be waitin' tables in jersey city this time next year ) .........HEY!! bring me a sweet roll, gal. ( no tip )

What a farce ....hedge funds, mutual funds ...we're in for the LONG TERM!

Funny isn't it the words most likely to scare Joe 6-pac away from their mutual funds are....LONG TERM blah FUND blah blah...FAILED!!!

WHAT!...who's got my money then?

Pity though Jo 6-pac won't get bailed out like wealthy willy.

The Bull has been castrated and is being led to his barn to protect him from the Bear, which is coming out of the woods.

Bill Murphy of the "Veneroso camp". It can be found over on "Le Metropole Cafe" I want to make sure he gets the credit he deserves. He's been good to us goldbugs and is starting his own site. I'm doing the free trial thingy but plan on joining. IMHO, it's worth it. He's been generous with his info. I may not post his commentary any more until I get his OK. He's very well connected. He even sent out an email alert when he found out Buffett was buying silver again. ( which I posted here ) I guess this sounds like a plug. I have no affiliation with his site but just wish to express my thanks. I'm still a die-hard Kitcoite.

Gianni Dioro, Silverbaron: Thank you for your replies.
Crazytimes-- absolutely exalting read!!!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

My apologies to Bart if this is violating Netiquette. I'm not sure.

Hello,,,,, anybody home,,,,,,,,cannot you read properly.
*I* guess it would be best you get your guns and head for the hills.
I would like to add the word dummy but it would probably get you upset.

OUCH! I feel like I just got hit on the head with a GOLDEN BASEBALL BAT!

XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-09-29
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $19.8125 -1.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -1.91
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $08.8125 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.02
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.9375 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.33
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $06.8125 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $12.0625 -0.9375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.55
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $19.1250 -0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.7500 -0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.09
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $11.8125 -0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.39
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $23.0000 -1.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.89
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $13.8125 -0.8750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.71

XAU CLOSED AT 73.5 -4.96

Thanks for the important post. Arnold bullish, Hmmmmmm.
Looks like this train is a rollin, and speed it will be picking up..........

Disagreement makes markets. Know that the more a man's argument is disproportionate to the apparent evidence that threatens his argument, the less he believes his argument. Silence is the capitulation of a position.
-EJ

Now I know what you're sure of, brother. I ( be ) sure2. G&P! to YA!!! we've had a good ride, pard! ( a few saddle sores...yea, but what the hey? )

Gold is insurance. It is effectively a short position on the central bank. That being said, stocks are generally, trading instruments. All the talk about being in the stock market for the 'Long Term' cracks me up. Tis' truly the talk of secular bull markets, but what happens when the cyclical or ( ! ) secular bear comes along? The long term stuff goes out of the window around the 50% loss mark, and long memories are made of those losses. The upshot? Trade stocks, options, and futures. While you're at it, by a little insurance, just in case....

Picked this up over at vronsky's forum:

Andy Smith is now working for MITSUI GLOBAL PRECIOUS METALS, and can be reached at

44 1 71 2468907 or andys@mbcl.co.uk

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner_98/kutyn092398.html

Behind the scenes, the One World People continue to plan and manipulate. Recent rumors have Australian mining giant BHP being split up and sold. Shell Oil would take over the oil and gas properties. Rio Tinto would take over the mining properties, there- by consolidating its control on the majority of the mineral wealth in the world. Such a move would give Rothchilds, through their influence on both DeBeers and Rio Tinto virtual control on the world diamond market.

BHP are now looking for a new Chief Executive....most likely to be a non-Australian.

BHP have in the last five years lost their way, now a new direction is called` for if not demanded by the shraeholders....

Time for a change.....time for RTZ and BP/Shell ?

Excuse me, but a 2.5% premium for NGC stock over NEM doesn't sound too fair to me.

RE: Abby Cohen, there is an old saying, "The more he talked about his virtues, the faster we hid our silverware."

In all fairness to Abby, considering her position as the premier bull, and the global financial condition, her turning bearish could possibly devastate the markets and usher a depression. She has to stay bullish.

of articles...sites...and discussion groups is proliferating...Hmmmmmmmm
on that very subect...doy!!!

you only die once.

Panda,
A timely point ( and yes,hold gold for insurance ) . I had several calls today from friends and relations, previously devout long term investors asking when I thought would be a good time to sell out. Sad really, they've been listening to the analysts instead of their own good common sense. I think the Goldilocks economy philosophers forgot about the three bears.
MofromTo

"Hello,,,,, anybody home,,,,,,,,cannot you read properly. " *I* guess it would be best you get your guns and head for the hills."

Sorry skinny, I am not home - still in my office working of this stupid Y2K thing. That also keeps me from having enough time to run around and selecting good hills ;- )

"I would like to add the word dummy but it would probably get you upset."

No, not at all, "dummy label" does not bother me. However, what may get me upset is the fact that all smart people are heading for the hills ( or talking about it ) and us dummies are left behind to fix the problem ;- )

Tokyo is mighty sanguine about all this so far tonight. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

When have these two ever been within that premium?
I don't ever recall that. I paid more than that for all of mine.
I refuse to go along with this, although I don't know what to do yet.

It's like the screwin' I got on Wertern Deeps ( WDEPY ) when they were consolidated into Anglogold. It was worth far more to me than what I got.

Still at the office working,,,,,,,,hhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Glad you do not work for me.

BHP is who I bought most of my O&G wells from....Houston office. They had bought Monsanto and Energy Reserves ( and paid way too much ) .

That crummy premium is why NGC went down so much more than NEM today.
---At least a buck a share, no?

Do you read Cory Hamasaki's WDC Weather Reports?

From the South China Morning Post
"Hedge Funds Face Failure as Borrowing Costs Surge"

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Biz-Template.idc?artid=19980929014244031&
top=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=4433

As a rule of thumb, I could see gold being revalued upwards in close proportion to the current leveraging of the financial system, when that system implodes. If the financial system is leveraged 20:1, then, as a rule of thumb, gold may be expected to increase by that amount--or more.
Conclusion: buy physical.

I'm a owner of NGC, too. Not pleased about the deal either. Maybe we shouldn't tender our shares. But, I guess, they'll just cancel them or whatever.

Highhopes

September 29, 1998
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BARR EXPOSES DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE POWER GRAB
WASHINGTON, DC -- U.S. Representative Bob Barr ( GA-7 ) released today information exposing an effort by the Department of Justice to obtain massive new enforcement powers in the closing days of the 105th Congress. Barr obtained the information from a confidential source within federal law enforcement. Among other things, the Department's "wish list" for new authority includes ( among others ) :


A vastly expanded definition of terrorism to include domestic crimes having no relationship to terrorism.
The power to seize commercial transportation assets for federal use.
The ability to commander personnel from other federal agencies without reimbursement.
Expanded wiretap authority to allow "roving" wiretaps, and wiretaps without any court authority.
Enlarged asset forfeiture provisions to allow the FBI to seize personal property in both criminal and civil matters.
The establishment of a permanent "FBI Police Force."
Loosening of Posse Comitatus restrictions to allow more military involvement in domestic law enforcement.
Authority to force telephone and Internet companies to divulge information on their customers.

"These requests belong in some bizarre conspiracy novel, not in serious legislative documents being circulated at the top levels of federal law enforcement. These proposals represent a sneak attack on the most cherished principles of our democracy. If they become a part of our law, freedom and privacy in America will be permanently and severely diminished," said Barr.

Barr also noted the Department and the FBI are "shopping" this wish list in an effort to get the items placed in a spending measure without hearings or debate.


http://www.globeandmail.ca/docs/news/19980929/ROBColumn/RANDY.html

"...Ms. Cohen did a little cheerleading for the U.S. banking system; she said it was in great shape. At this, my bearish friends started to giggle. Everyone in the room knew Goldman Sachs executives were up to their eyeballs in a $3.5-billion ( U.S. ) bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, a rescue effort designed to avert a meltdown in the U.S. banking system. Goldman Sachs' strategist closed her remarks by saying she used to be "exuberantly and rationally bullish," but now the forecast was just bullish, with a chance of volatility. To hear Ms. Cohen tell it, it's a great time to own U.S. stocks...
...After Ms. Cohen took her seat, RBC Dominion Securities chief economist Paul Summerville took the stage.
Mr. Summerville illustrated working conditions on the RBC Dominion trading desk by running a slide of chained slaves pulling on the oars of a Roman galley.
The economist, who worked in Tokyo and speaks fluent Japanese, summed up Asia's financial prospects with a slide of an A-bomb's mushroom cloud. Japan, he said, "is toast."
Then Mr. Summerville got serious and predicted a North American recession by the end of 1999 -- an event that will trash equity markets -- with the risk of global depression if the current crisis in political leadership continues to fester...
As the evening wound down, the pension fund manager observed that Ms. Cohen might have just flashed a sell sign. Cynical investors will tell you that on the Street, an analyst's move from "buy" to "accumulate" is a signal to sell, while downgrading a recommendation from "accumulate" to "hold" means head for the hills."

"Glad you do not work for me."

So am I!!
It's one of the things I never had a problem with - to choose whom I work for or who works for me.

Enough of this - there are better things to do ( or read ) on this forum

The DC Weather Report is an entertaining and informative read. Also, that Globe and Mail article in your 20:44 was very good.

panda: You are right -- a capacitively coupled, rectified AC driven switching power supply should work with any kind of alternating electrical power -- in principle. I think it was Home Power Magazine that showed several years ago that what you expect with a switching power supply does not in fact necessarily work. Perhaps the designer cuts some corners.

I would guess that any transformer-less system could be modified internally to work off 60 Hz square wave AC -- as long as the switching power supply was DC driven and did not need any kind of AC signal to start up. You probably know more about this than I do. My only guess - if this is true - is that some switching power supplies do not handle the harmonics well -- perhaps the input filtering capacitors can't filter out the AC harmonics. Perhaps they overheat. LC input filter not set up right to filter DC -- tuned for 60 Hz only?

I can't imagine the output ciruit of the switching power supply being directly affected by the kind of input AC to the unit.

I really don't know what else it might be. Computer monitor power supplies might have a similar problem. Printers are another matter, unless they also work off internally generated DC, or have the right kind of low loss transformer. Less likely, I would guess. My HP deskjet uses a transformer.

When I have a chance, I will take off the cover of my computer power supply, and see how the coupling capacitors for the input ( line ) AC are set up, and how big they are.

Unplugged, or course. Remember once being thrown accross the lab by a 10kv power supply. All I remember was a flash of light, a little white hole in my finger, and lying on the floor.

Has the slope of the 200 dma turned positive? It looks like it's about to.

What the hell can we do???

If you tell me the best way to collect solar power, I'll tell you a very good way to keep it hot. Not a bribe, but an exchange. cdevoto@abts.net Thanx, Charlie

I DON'T KNOW WHAT CAN BE DONE.

As a general rule it's good thinkin' to ground out those big caps, hi voltage rectifiers, etc....tee heeeeeee....70 mfd/650v....muscles luv' em...........!

I'm getting hold of Jesse. For what it's worth. He understands me raising hell. At least we can bring this to their attention

To All:Usually gold shares show the trend before the physical.
Today gold shares falled "crescendo" in interesting volume but the ounce stayed
strangely stable especially in the end of the day:ANY COMMENT to this unusual behavior?

Have you got a bill # or a resolution designation etc? Or where can I get one

Thanks for reminding me. I read his reports here and there when I have some spare time.
Lately I am mostly out of town. Just came back from California, repack my suitcase, and heading for Alaska, Philly, Albuquerque, than back to San Francisko. Oh well...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/hh.html

I just got an email back from Bill Murphy. He doesn't mind that I repost his commentary here. He informed me that gold lease rates ( I'm assuming one month, he didn't specify ) have dropped ( in his words ) "Big time". Ouch!!!! He still believes that a gold bull can start without a sharp increase in the lease rates. I'm not so sure but let's hope.....

http://www.mises.org/journals/aen/Aen_wi96.asp

An interview with James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate

"The institution holding the biggest bag of derivatives is Chase, with $7.6 trillion. Interestingly, Chase raised the red flag in its 1997 annual report, noting, "Management expects there will be an increase in nonperforming assets in 1998 primarily as a result of the deterioration of credit conditions in a number of Asian countries." Unlike other banks, Chase refused to talk publicly about its derivatives exposure with clients that are below investment grade, but it already has more than $1 billion in total nonperforming assets. A report issued by the OCC examiners puts its total credit risks from derivatives at $81.9 billion, four times stockholders' equity.
And then there's Bankers Trust, which introduced the world to derivatives surprises in 1994. Procter & Gamble sued the bank after absorbing losses of about $150 million on a blown deal, accusing Bankers Trust of misleading it on the risks. The bank agreed to a costly settlement. Now it may face other nasty surprises from Asia. According to SEC filings, the bank has some $5 billion of gross-credit exposure in derivatives to clients that aren't investment grade."

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/1998/dom/980525/asias_crisis.the_banks_n8.html

// Y2k Financial Asset Protection //

Taking Your 401 ( K ) Plan On The Offensive
by Randy Flink

In many respects, a 401 ( k ) plan resembles an insurance policy. One
contributes to the 401 ( k ) plan during a lifetime of employment and
then withdraws the assets upon reaching a certain age or under
extenuating circumstances. These assets become an income substitute
or an income supplement depending on the situation.

Certainly, one's 401 ( k ) plan assets can come to represent a
significant portion of one's accumulated wealth. Sadly, the 401 ( k )
plan often is "out of sight, out of mind" and related investment
decisions are neglected. To a degree, 401 ( k ) plan investment
decisions also force us to become market timers. Not that this is our
preference, but company policy in many 401 ( k ) plans allows
participants to reallocate their investment mix only 4 times per year.
These decision dates almost always coincide with March 31, June 30,
September 30 and December 31.

[Editor Note: This is why I'm posting this early. Tomorrow is Sept
30th.]

Generally, one's 401 ( k ) plan investment menu includes a mixture of
equity funds, a pure fixed-income fund ( US Government and/or corporate
debt securities ) , a balanced fund ( part equity, part fixed income ) and
perhaps a money market fund. If you are serious about your Y2k
financial preparations, you will make a mad dash to the US Government
fixed-income fund or money market fund option on either September 30
or December 31, but certainly no later than March 31, 1999.

Since making adequate physical preparations for Y2k often has its
price tag, 401 ( k ) plan assets may be needed to pay a portion of the
freight. One should keep in mind the following points:

( 1 ) If you are trying to mobilize funds to pay for Y2k provisions,
stop contributing to your 401 ( k ) plan now.

( 2 ) If your 401 ( k ) plan has a loan option, use it. However, be
prepared to wait 60-90 days for the loan proceeds to be disbursed.

( 3 ) If you need to cash out of a 401 ( k ) plan, wait if at all possible
until after January 1, 1999 so that the penalty and income tax
liability won't be payable until April 15, 2000. Also, make every
effort to get a withholding exemption when you cash out, or a chunk of
your money will automatically be sent to the IRS as a prepaid tax
deposit.

Caution: Depending on the amount withdrawn, the IRS may assess you
for "underpayment penalty and interest" if your total tax liability
for the year ends up being greater than what you have paid in via
withholding and/or estimated quarterly payments. Consult with a tax
advisor if you think this could apply in your situation. Again, be
prepared to wait 60-90 days for the proceeds to be disbursed.

( 4 ) If you are leaving your job ( voluntarily or involuntarily ) ,
immediately transfer your 401 ( k ) plan assets to a self-directed IRA
account, either with a discount brokerage firm or a full-service
brokerage firm. Although the penalty provisions for early withdrawal
would still remain in effect, your choice of investment options will
increase exponentially should you decide not to prematurely liquidate.
Allow 30-45 days for the asset transfer to take place.

( 5 ) Finally, don't forget cash value life insurance policy loans as a
funding source for Y2k physical preparations, or as a source of funds
for diversifying into US Treasuries, physical precious metals or
short-sale equity strategies as part of your Y2k financial preparations.

---

// Y2k Weatherman Comments //

Global markets watched in nervous anticipation of what the U.S.
Federal Reserve would do with interest rates today. Sadly, the
handwriting is on the wall in spite of the power of the Fed. In my
opinion, the banking system is the most vulnerable side of the Iron
Triangle but not necessarily from Y2k. ( see
http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=16&rtn=y2kman.htm ) .

Speculation abounds on the possible loss of electrical power and
telecommunications due to Y2k, but regardless of the Y2k problems, I
believe the financial industry is toast. With Y2k, it might be burnt
toast. The only thing I'm uncertain about is the exact timing.
Greenspan's manipulation of interest rates simply delays the inevitable.

Y2kWatch Financial Advisor, Randy Flink; my precious metals broker,
Ron Brown; and my market technician friends at J.C. Bradford have all
commented to me about the incredible manipulation in the market, and
especially the precious metals market. The power brokers of the
international banking and investment community must be pulling out all
the stops. What is keeping precious metals so low? Can deflation
adequately explain it? My thoughts: International money manipulators
want to stem panic withdrawals from a collapsing global fractional
reserve banking system.

The uncertainty on how the global financial cards will be played has
created a real-life international banking drama more captivating than
the hit film "Titanic." In both dramas, the story is similar. People
are dancing on deck while the ship is sinking.

Although I still agree 100% with Randy's deadline of 3/31/99 for
completing the execution of all your Y2k financial plans, it is better
to be 6 months early in your financial fire escape than 1 day late.
Don your financial life vest *now* and head for the life boats.

The Y2k Weatherman
1998 by Y2k-Watch

The trade imbalance is going to put the shippers out of business. Shipping empty containers means you're going to lose money. You can't make it up by raising your rates on the inbound side. My wife's in the shipping forwarding biz. At this rate, she's going to have plenty of time to do her artistic thing she's never had time for. A mixed blessing.
-EJ

// Y2k Financial Asset Protection //

Taking Your 401 ( K ) Plan On The Offensive
by Randy Flink

In many respects, a 401 ( k ) plan resembles an insurance policy. One
contributes to the 401 ( k ) plan during a lifetime of employment and
then withdraws the assets upon reaching a certain age or under
extenuating circumstances. These assets become an income substitute
or an income supplement depending on the situation.

Certainly, one's 401 ( k ) plan assets can come to represent a
significant portion of one's accumulated wealth. Sadly, the 401 ( k )
plan often is "out of sight, out of mind" and related investment
decisions are neglected. To a degree, 401 ( k ) plan investment
decisions also force us to become market timers. Not that this is our
preference, but company policy in many 401 ( k ) plans allows
participants to reallocate their investment mix only 4 times per year.
These decision dates almost always coincide with March 31, June 30,
September 30 and December 31.

[Editor Note: This is why I'm posting this early. Tomorrow is Sept
30th.]

Generally, one's 401 ( k ) plan investment menu includes a mixture of
equity funds, a pure fixed-income fund ( US Government and/or corporate
debt securities ) , a balanced fund ( part equity, part fixed income ) and
perhaps a money market fund. If you are serious about your Y2k
financial preparations, you will make a mad dash to the US Government
fixed-income fund or money market fund option on either September 30
or December 31, but certainly no later than March 31, 1999.

Since making adequate physical preparations for Y2k often has its
price tag, 401 ( k ) plan assets may be needed to pay a portion of the
freight. One should keep in mind the following points:

( 1 ) If you are trying to mobilize funds to pay for Y2k provisions,
stop contributing to your 401 ( k ) plan now.

( 2 ) If your 401 ( k ) plan has a loan option, use it. However, be
prepared to wait 60-90 days for the loan proceeds to be disbursed.

( 3 ) If you need to cash out of a 401 ( k ) plan, wait if at all possible
until after January 1, 1999 so that the penalty and income tax
liability won't be payable until April 15, 2000. Also, make every
effort to get a withholding exemption when you cash out, or a chunk of
your money will automatically be sent to the IRS as a prepaid tax
deposit.

Caution: Depending on the amount withdrawn, the IRS may assess you
for "underpayment penalty and interest" if your total tax liability
for the year ends up being greater than what you have paid in via
withholding and/or estimated quarterly payments. Consult with a tax
advisor if you think this could apply in your situation. Again, be
prepared to wait 60-90 days for the proceeds to be disbursed.

( 4 ) If you are leaving your job ( voluntarily or involuntarily ) ,
immediately transfer your 401 ( k ) plan assets to a self-directed IRA
account, either with a discount brokerage firm or a full-service
brokerage firm. Although the penalty provisions for early withdrawal
would still remain in effect, your choice of investment options will
increase exponentially should you decide not to prematurely liquidate.
Allow 30-45 days for the asset transfer to take place.

( 5 ) Finally, don't forget cash value life insurance policy loans as a
funding source for Y2k physical preparations, or as a source of funds
for diversifying into US Treasuries, physical precious metals or
short-sale equity strategies as part of your Y2k financial preparations.

---

// Y2k Weatherman Comments //

Global markets watched in nervous anticipation of what the U.S.
Federal Reserve would do with interest rates today. Sadly, the
handwriting is on the wall in spite of the power of the Fed. In my
opinion, the banking system is the most vulnerable side of the Iron
Triangle but not necessarily from Y2k. ( see
http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=16&rtn=y2kman.htm ) .

Speculation abounds on the possible loss of electrical power and
telecommunications due to Y2k, but regardless of the Y2k problems, I
believe the financial industry is toast. With Y2k, it might be burnt
toast. The only thing I'm uncertain about is the exact timing.
Greenspan's manipulation of interest rates simply delays the inevitable.

Y2kWatch Financial Advisor, Randy Flink; my precious metals broker,
Ron Brown; and my market technician friends at J.C. Bradford have all
commented to me about the incredible manipulation in the market, and
especially the precious metals market. The power brokers of the
international banking and investment community must be pulling out all
the stops. What is keeping precious metals so low? Can deflation
adequately explain it? My thoughts: International money manipulators
want to stem panic withdrawals from a collapsing global fractional
reserve banking system.

The uncertainty on how the global financial cards will be played has
created a real-life international banking drama more captivating than
the hit film "Titanic." In both dramas, the story is similar. People
are dancing on deck while the ship is sinking.

Although I still agree 100% with Randy's deadline of 3/31/99 for
completing the execution of all your Y2k financial plans, it is better
to be 6 months early in your financial fire escape than 1 day late.
Don your financial life vest *now* and head for the life boats.

The Y2k Weatherman
1998 by Y2k-Watch

I think I would rather chat over a $9 cup of coffee at Les Deux Magots or its equivalent. By the Way, Le Moulin Rouge wasn't a caf where intellectuals went to discuss, it was a place where Toulouse Lautrec went to pick up filles de joie, or sporting girls.

No wonder Goldman Sachs cancelled their public offering. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=bt+cmb&d=t

shek: If that had been about gold, we goldbugs would be rushing for the exits! Looks like the Wall Street Pros are thoroughly spooked.

I think the key ingredient that may prevent a market crash is that the 403b baby boomers are still like deer caught in the headlights. They will not move quickly, and will offer a cushion to the markets. Where else would they invest, but in the equities markets? I exaggerate, because some are very sophisticated. But only 1/10 of my friends are out of the general equities markets. Not worried yet.

Anyone care to guess how much the markets might go down if the pros panic, but the small investor baby boomers do not? The 403b crowd represents a boatload of money!

Well, shares often do run up in advance of an upswing in the bullion price. The fear when the shares run up ahead of the bullion, like they have, is that the bullion will not follow through, and then the share prices drop dramatically. Even though bullion was down $1.10 today, the share price run up had anticipated a large move up in the bullion price, and when that didn't happen, down they went.

"It is worse. It is a symptom of Greenspan's fundamental failing that will prove to be his undoing. Before this is all over, there will be a big speculative upset, a loss of faith in financial assets, and a loss of faith in the steward of financial markets: Greenspan himself. His tragic flaw is that he thinks--contrary to the teachings of the Austrian masters--that there is some piece of data that will allow him to see the future clearly and head it off at the pass. He really believes that, notwithstanding what he knows about Mises.
There is no worse error. Somebody once told me that when Greenspan went to Washington, he felt that at last he would have the information he needed to make him a great economic forecaster. He evidently thought that in the upper-left-hand drawer of his desk, there was going to be a chart book that would show him everything.
Greenspan's career has been an essay in careerism. He has sought out power and prestige, the great and the good, and wants to be one of them, and he is. He has arrived. He is an establishmentarian who is going to do things in the establishmentarian way." - James Grant

rates back under 1%? If they are, kiss this bull goodbye.
I guess this answers the question about whether the run up in
lease rates last Thursday was short demand driven or an
arbitrary hike by CBs concerned about their gold security.
The spike was entirely the product of demand for short selling
ammunition. That fits both the present decline, and the pattern
of gold spot last Friday.

I think the European CBs will try to keep gold under $300 for
three more months. It's the EURO thing. Question is, can
Greenspan keep the USD up that long???????

Mr. MacD,
This amplification effect of the Shares prior to Bullion behaves like a purely human anticipation, don't you think? But then this market is rather surreal, exhibiting supernatural characteristics which defy any and all logic. Hold on to your seat sir. This thing is about to blow.

We aren't just paranoids.Other people are worried too. I'm OK. You're OK. I just wish gold would kick butt soon.But heh ,it hasn't been dull.

GOOD questuion! Is Greenspan big enough to control the dollar so it stays up??? He may be head man here, but I think he is loosing power around the world.

are back down under 1% for one month gold, collapse is a more
appropriate word for the future trend in spot gold. If gold goes
back down to retest the lows, then a deflation is being signaled
by more than the bond market!

The lease rate thingy worries me also, but only because I learned about
it here at Kitco ( and it seems to worry yall ) . Do you think the majority of people who might turn to gold as a "safe haven" have the foggiest idea what a lease rate is or for that matter, care if they knew?
If they haven't cared about PE's in the 100's, I doubt they will care
about this.

I believe you have it! His fatal flaw is adherence to some concept that is flawed. Thanx, Charlie

and duct tape...I know AG likes the stuff...but...nah...

our advantage here on Kitco. The general public, and most brokers
know nothing about lease rates.

Bill Murphy didn't specify the exact rate only that they dropped "Big Time"

As the song goes: "What a difference a day makes...24 little hours..."
This thing is in resonance, flip-flopping on a daily basis. Wait 'til all the players have taken a hit before counting the cards. Some call it blackjack. Besides, my SA stocks don't show a great deal of concern about lease rates.

Grant has excellent insite into Greenspan. He's an opportunist, a brialliant one, but an opportunist nonetheless. Did you know that in 1980 when Ronald Reagan said he was going to cut taxes, boost defense spending, and balance the budget, Reagan brought out Greenspan to contest those who were shouting, "Voodoo economics." "This is an excercise in reasonable budgetmaking," Greenspan said. In 1984 Greenspan was hired by none other than Charles Keating to examine Lincon Savings and Loan. Greenspan then told Congress they should give Lincona and other S&Ls a legal exemption to make riskier investments. His endorsement helped Keating to win over Congress. The rest is history. But I bet a few Congressman still there remember this.
-EJ

All: Any of you have doubts, please read the September 28 issue of Time. I could not find anything complementary about WJC anywhere in it. The time editors have clearly decided that he is a liar, and have said so. If the mainstream press has switched sides, he is toast! And if Hillary is not worried, why is she madly running around congress trying to find suitable 'jurors'? I gather during impeachment proceedings -- the Senate 'trial' or whatever it is called -- is managed by a chosen few. If I remember Watergate days -- a public interrogation panel. Anyone know what happened to gold in those days? I bet it really went up when the investigative panel got going. Was that the House or the Senate?

Will the House ask WJC to testify, or will they just pass the decision over to the Senate? The latter I think.

So -- with this much incertainty gold will go up, irrespective of liquidity crises, Russian disasters, and new German popularist leaders. I think the long term prospects for gold are excellent, regardless of what happens.

Just imagine what happens during act II when the Linda Tripp tapes come out!

Here's a good article on why Japan cannot do what it needs to do to keep the world from falling into a deflationary depression. Anyone else notice how eerily quite Asia is tonight?

http://www.thenewrepublic.com/magazines/tnr/current/judis101298.html

-EJ

I've learned a lot from you & others, but in your reply to me I see the
exact reason why it might not be as big a deal to others as to those here. Does the demand for Gold drive lease rates up? If so, might those
leaving the security of their stocks to the ( supposed? ) haven of gold
drive the lease rates up in itself? Of course this is assuming that the
herd doesn't veer off to a haven that is not gold. Also assuming that
the market drops drastically enough to make them stampede.

Hey! Don't shoot me! I'm only the piano player! Who said anything about Le Moulin Rouge anyway? Bill Murphy has been keeping Goldbugs informed on the net for some time now. I appreciate it. He's ok in my book.

Any thoughts with regards to lease rates less than 1%, Au's current softness in both price and volume? Maybe this is what Fridays inverted yield curves were telling us.

Studio R.: I think I was 18 when I fiddled with that oscilloscope with the back off. Good thing that 1KV supply had low amperage. I am much more careful now.

Another time about 10 years ago I had my feet in a swimming pool. The enclosure made a crude Faraday cage. Or so I thought. Somwhere nearby a bolt of lightning hit -- at least hundreds of feet from the house, I think. Didn't even see the thunderhead until I looked around after the event.

I got quite a charge -- didn't hurt but scared the daylights out of me. No -- no change in intelligence! Or so they say.

I certainly would not want to be out in an Aluminum party boat if a thunderstorm hit.

-- I ran a little thingee I made in SuperCharts and over the last ~2 years the premium has been about 5% . In the longer stretch of about five years, the average was about zero, BUT! At some points, the premuim of NGC over NEM was better than TEN PERCENT during gold 'runs'. It also held up better in the downdrafts. I'm sorry, but I think the deal SUCKS.

1%. That means the bull is off, and gold is going to go south, or
at best just sit at 290-295. If it goes back down, it will
signal a deflation, big time. That's quite a problem A Greenspan
has:

He must keep the dollar up, but that is sucking liquidity out of
the world economy. So he must drop the dollar, but not too much.

He wants to discredit gold, but in doing so, he signals a deflation
and keeps the USD up.

He must drop interest rates to prop up the sick equities market,
but at the same time let it deflate to realistic P/E ratios.
He announces a minor .25% drop. If we crash, the loss of confidance
will likely generate a deflation/depression.

Lease rates of .36% themselves signal a deflation.

Greenspan is trying to dig a hole in water.

-- We've closed over the 200 DMA for a couple days now. I find that encouraging. Not necessarily indicating THE start of a bull market in gold, but I'll take whatever I can get. I have another set of charts that indicate this was some kind of short term peak in a downtrend. I know, I know! If I had the answers!!!! I would know what to do.

All: I think there is only one thing that could push gold down at this point -- and that is an outright world wide finacial collapse with associated gold fire sale. Getting less and less likely, as more people look to gold for security.

1%. That means the bull is off, and gold is going to go south, or
at best just sit at 290-295. If it goes back down, it will
signal a deflation, big time. That's quite a problem A Greenspan
has:

He must keep the dollar up, but that is sucking liquidity out of
the world economy. So he must drop the dollar, but not too much.

He wants to discredit gold, but in doing so, he signals a deflation
and keeps the USD up.

He must drop interest rates to prop up the sick equities market,
but at the same time let it deflate to realistic P/E ratios.
He announces a minor .25% drop. If we crash, the loss of confidance
will likely generate a deflation/depression.

Lease rates of .36% themselves signal a deflation.

Greenspan is trying to dig a hole in water, yet not make any waves.

"It is essential for them to coordinate monetary policies and deliver support so as to promote growth in the global economy," he said, echoing a call for rate cuts by Canadian Finance Minister Paul Martin earlier in the day.

G7 needs to take lead in economic crisis, Canadian leader says
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/092998/world34_8376.html

Japan's industrial production slips
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/092998/biz20_8456_noframes.html

Goldman Sachs & Co on Tuesday said it named 160 employees as managing directors effective November 28 in a move to broaden the investment bank's leadership structure and keep key employees from leaving.

Goldman names 160 new managing directors
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/bpk.html

Burn baby burn

But Merrill says this had no effect on the bailout decision. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/bs2.html

Sorry, I missed your 22:31 .....digging a hole in water ...no waves? what kind of gardening talk is that?

By KATHRYN M. WELLING

Crony Capitalism, American-style?

That the scene of the crime was one of the New York Fed's posh, polished and paneled meeting rooms and not some teeming Hong Kong back street or an outpost of the Kremlin kleptocracy makes no difference, say the cynics. What else do you call it when the Fed corrals the fat cats at the helms of the Street's biggest banks and brokerage houses all into one elegant room -- and doesn't let them out until they ( with only a few rather conspicuous exceptions ) agree to equally divvy up the tab on a $3.5 billion bailout of a hedge fund formed by a gang of former colleagues. "Affluent, BMW-driving, Dom Perignon-drinking, Vail-vacationing, Hampton-weekending, Greenwich-living erstwhile masters of the universe," whose fatal mistake came down to a slight flaw in the formula their Ph.D.s input into their black box. To wit: "Buy high, sell low." That and leverage, not to mention hubris, both of monumental proportions.

Not missed for a nanosecond by the callused hands and sharp wits who ring trading desks the world round was the rich irony embodied in Wednesday night's Fed-led rescue of Long-Term Capital Management. Not only is the hedge fund's very name now infamously a misnomer, its reputation -- until quite recently -- rested on what passes as "rocket science." What was the Fed chairman thinking, they asked ( wink, wink ) , just hours earlier on Wednesday afternoon when -- in the midst of what briefly looked like a spectacularly successful market support operation -- he regaled Congress with a description of a technologically turbo-charger new economic era in which "dramatic advances in computer and telecommunications technologies" have combined with "a marked increase in the degree of sophistication of financial products" to effectively direct "scarce savings into our most potentially valuable productive capital assets." Just like Long-Term Capital did.

Right.

Formerly LongTerm Capital, after all, was the hedge fund that even Business Week knew had cornered the market on the best and brightest in finance. It boasted ( and boasted and boasted ) not just founder John Meriwether and a tribe of high-priced talent from his ( pre- Treasury bid-rigging scandal ) salad days as Salomon Brothers' supreme bond trader but a couple of Nobel prize-winning economists, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, and a former vice chairman of the Fed, David Mullins. The 59% and 44% gains this trifecta of Wall Street, academic and government bigwigs reported on their purportedly low-risk, albeit exceedingly complex and strictly secret, trading strategies in '95 and '96 were merely reflections of the natural order: The outsized returns due to ostensibly superior intellects.

Right, again.

And the gents who run the globe's biggest banking institutions are chipping in to throw a life preserver to Meriwether and crew out of the goodness of their hearts.

Sorry, it doesn't compute.

As one of Long-Term Capital's limited partners ( who, chagrined at discovering just how limited he is, insisted on remaining nameless ) conceded to us Thursday, it may have taken some considerable prodding from the Fed, but the banks are basically trying to save themselves -- and, not coincidentally, the financial system.

For what the captains of Wall Street came face to face with in that Fed meeting room wasn't "just" the systemic risk posed by the unwinding of the $100 billion or so of highly leveraged bond, currency and equity bets that Long-Term Capital had piled up against the roughly $2 billion of capital on its books. It was also their own proprietary trading desks' exposures to off-balance sheet positions in derivative markets -- potential liabilities that amount to 10-15 times that sum -- which would have been placed in grave jeopardy by a typical Street-style rush for the exits.

"It's one thing," this supposedly sophisticated investor excused himself, "to be an investor ( in Meriwether's fund ) and not know what they were doing, because you were really betting on the people. But the lenders are in a different position. If they didn't know, that is very interesting. These banks all have risk-management systems, so they must have thought the collateral was strong enough."

Maybe. Or else, points out a shrewd trader of our acquaintance, they had no idea who else had claims on that same paper. "If you're dealing with enough banks on an international level, it's like pass-the-parcel. Do you think the French banks talk to the German banks or the Swiss banks talk to the U.S. banks?"

Quite evidently not, until the Fed banged their heads together. Then, suddenly, the $300 million apiece that the Street's leading lights tossed into the Long-Term Capital kitty looked like chump change compared to equity hits that could have ranged in the billions, had they been forced to write off the loans and other forms of credit they'd extended to the hedge fund. Which they'd have been forced to do, had it sought protection from creditors. Not to mention the $1 trillion or so in collateral damage that the urgent unwinding of the hedge fund's positions might have done to the banks' and brokers' own immense derivatives positions.

One gauge of just how awful was that abyss, says our shrewd trader friend, is that Wall Street's notoriously competitive movers and shakers came together on the bailout even though Long-Term Capital's clearing broker, Bear Stearns, and a major trading partner, Lehman Brothers, refused to kick "full shares" into the rescue pool. Better to cover the exposure of improvident rivals than to be marked to market.

On that score, it's sobering to note that $125 billion of the total of $365 billion of commercial loans made in this country last year were extended to finance securities dealings. The banks lent that vast sum either to themselves -- to buy non-Treasury securities for their own books -- or to securities dealers. Would it be any wonder, now that all manner of securities markets have so graphically demonstrated that they can move rapidly in directions other than up, if lending officers were to suddenly get religion?

Or is there any doubt why the Fed has now embraced precisely the sort of Japanese-style "solution" to market turmoil ( "there is no problem as long as everyone agrees not to recognize the problem" ) that it has long derided?

Switching power supplies basically work like this, they charge a capacitor to a relatively high voltage and then regulate that voltage down to the required voltage. So a five volt supply could have capacitors that would be charged up to ~180 volts peak. Then the capacitors are switched to dump current in to the load at the regulated voltage. The AC part comes in because most supplies use SCRs or TRIACs which need to have a phase reversal to be turned off. An SCR or TRIAC is basically an electronic switch that can handle large currents and voltages with rapid switching characteristics. This is a lousy explanation, but the caps are charged on the next cycle. Effectively, the caps bounce say from ~140 volt to ~180 and the output stays at five volts. The input wave shape isn't that critical as long as it crosses zero.

MM: No wonder the public offering was delayed! I wonder just how many people are leaving -- voluntarily or involuntarily? Either way you look at it, morale must not be good.

PRECIOUS METALS
Strategy
Active Traders/Money Managers
December Gold: Bought gold, hold stops as recommended above.
December Silver stand aside.
XAU: Hold long the XAU ( from near 58.99 ) with stops at 57.
Forecast
Gold took no comfort from the Fed's minimal rate cut, but one strong day followed by a weak one doesn't change our intermediate-term gold forecast, but does cloudy the short-term. There is the potential for a decline back to 291.20, then further strength. Or even a drop back to the 287 area, though we aren't necessarily looking for that as the 289/290 area is building as a support area. We'd like to see it clear 300, which as we have been saying, the third time should be the charm. The XAU slid quite a bit too, though 69/70 should be support. Perhaps some weakness can be attributed to reports that for the first time since last December, Russia is shipping palladium and platinum. Silver is coming close to Fibonacci resistance at 5.42 that if breached would also be breaking above a resistance line dating back to the April highs


U.S. Stock Market
Strategy
S&P and E-mini ( Dec. futures "SPZ" ) : Sell short at market with stops at 1080.25. This is riskier than "normal," if there is such a thing as "normal," so trade mini contracts or otherwise trade lightly.
Dow Jones Futures ( Dec. futures "DFZ" ) : Use S&P parameters
Options Traders: Use S&P parameters.
**Mutual Fund Switchers Hold 50% of funds from money market into the bear fund Rydex Ursa, as of Friday's close ( SPX 1044.75 ) . That leaves 50% in money market and 50% in the bear fund as of Friday. Hold that position.
Forecast
We are truly fulfilling the ancient Chinese proverb that says, "May you live in interesting times."
Although the Greenspan Federal Reserve Board has typically begun with 1/4 point interest rate moves when it changes direction on interest rate policy, today's announcement that it would cut the Fed Funds rate by only 1/4% and leave the Discount Rate unchanged was a disappointment to the markets. In the process, the only markets that were open at the time plunged 2% to 3%, with Canada closing down 2%, Mexico 1%, and the S&P and Dow averages performing their typical anti-gravity magic by coming all the way back and trading up on the day before falling back into the close. This is the kind of choppy behavior that has characterized the past couple of weeks, but the S&P 500 cash Index is up only 0.4% in that two week period on a net basis.
This kind of behavior should end very soon, though, with Wednesday's Yom Kippur that typically marks rally peaks in fall panic cycles yielding to early October seasonality in which the market typically rallies. Friday is the Unemployment report, and the market certainly has its work cut out for it. Although we cannot rule out another rally attempt during that period, for reasons I have been giving, the market is likely to resolve this pattern with new lows during October.
Additionally, the market likely peaked its September countertrend rally right at the 50% resistance level for the S&P cash, which is also at the top of the channel line and at the 200-day moving average. If the global markets react negatively to Tuesday's rate cut, we can make a case that the market will fall beginning now despite Wednesday's likelihood of attracting portfolio "window dressing" on the last day of the quarter.
Nonetheless, with the market likely completing or near the completion of Wave X, the countertrend rally from the Sept. 1 low that should yield to another decline in October, and with Tuesday's action triggering our short-term futures model back to a "sell," we're not going to ignore the evidence. Traders should note that the market is, of course, high risk, but I'm not sure when a person can trade futures or options, and in the last couple of years stocks, without high risk nearly all the time. We'll know more tomorrow, but the evidence is tilted toward at least light

IMHO, this looks like a 4th wave rising wedge. It has taken a very long time to form, but prices keep compressing into the Apex. The possibility still exists for this to be a ( 2 ) of wave 3 of the 3rd. The only thing that looks certain is that prices are going down, maybe very hard.

Goodnight.

.

According to the Frazer Institute every man woman and child in Canada owes $113.000.00 in dept.
Canada and Paul Martin who are part of the G7 should not be giving financial advice to anyone.
As Canada borrows money on the world market I have always been curious if the dept is Can. Or U.S. $.

Most switchers also operate at high switching frequencies to improve efficiency. So, you start with AC, turn it in to DC, then chop the DC up.. Well never mind. Time to say goodnight!

.

.

.

The picture is much different now than over the last year. Shorting gold isn't such a sure bet aymore. The best case scenerio would be if lease rates are real low and there aren't any takers! Then, Les Jeux sont faits ( the jig is up ) I was not happy to hear lease rates are down again, but sentiment is changing rapidly towards gold. Where's Farfel?

I don't know if this was discussed here today, but look at what the market is going to do to any company that disappoints!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980929/bra.html

How many other companies are going to release news like this. It wasn't even that bad, really.

"Huge current net long positions by commercials, in commodities from corn and soybeans to gold and platinum, Mike maintains, mean those markets are on the cusp of rallies -- and that bonds, which are sure to be spooked by even the slightest hint of inflation, and in which commercials have been engaged in record selling, are likely headed down."

Barrons: Up & Down Wall Street -- Part 2

The question now, of course, is whether this Fed-engineered market manipulation will work here any better than similar techniques have worked in Japan over the last decade. Clearly, Long-Term Capital's bailout has bought some time for the banks and brokers...and the markets. Whether it will prove to be enough depends, as Morgan Stanley's Barton Biggs puts it, "on whether another hernia pops out somewhere."

Should another pop, warns Barton, "all they've done is make the credit crunch that Greenspan is worrying about worse, as $3.5 billion of additional bank equity goes down the drain as well." Barton, eminently rational soul that he is, is hoping for the best -- but not betting heavily on it.

Even though the Treasury and Fed, he acknowledges, "still have lots of bullets," and it's possible that "all these trades get unwound in the right direction," the market is subject to some other potentially formidable negative forces. Barton has a particularly wary and practiced eye on developments in Brazil. He fervently hopes the big U.S. trading partner doesn't get dragged down by the deflationary wave that has already engulfed so many other emerging markets. But it's not a good omen, he notes, that even though the Brazilian stock market has been rallying, money is still leaving the country.

And even if the combined forces of the Treasury, the Fed and the IMF manage to keep Brazil's economy afloat, says the savvy strategist, the markets face plenty of other hurdles. Among them: The credit crunch now obviously developing in the U.S. and the one that's just beginning to be acknowledged in Europe, where the big banks are enormously more exposed to submerging markets than are their U.S. counterparts. And where the banks also have gone whole-hog into the international business of lending on securities.

The upshot, worries Barton, is at best a global slowdown in '99 and, at worst, a synchronized recession in which worldwide growth goes negative to the tune of perhaps as much as a half of a percentage point.

In either case, we suspect, U.S. companies will have a heck of a time meeting the expectations of 19% earnings growth that bottoms-up analysts are still baking into their '99 forecasts. Thus, although it's a lot easier now than it was just a few short months ago to find stocks selling at relatively modest multiples of expected earnings, we also suspect there'll be far better times to be a hero.

Ready for some outside-the-box thinking? For looking at the world from a different angle? For some sort of a sign that, however unpleasant the prospect of wringing out the markets' wretched excesses, somehow, eventually, all won't be lost?

The chart down yonder, tracing out the weekly price pattern in gold -- denominated in Japanese yen -- is the handiwork of Mike Williams' futures trading advisory group out in Chicago, Genesis Partners. Mike didn't realize what he was setting himself up for when he called last week to pound the table again on industrial and agricultural commodities -- and, not coincidentally, bad-mouth bonds and the buck. But we asked Mike to coax the chart from his computers on a hunch about where signs of reflation might first show up. And he gamely complied.

As readers of the Barron's Q&A we did with him last July know full-well, Mike's usual thing is analyzing the government's commitments of traders reports on the activities of "commercials" in the commodities markets against speculative sentiment in the pits, as gauged by a proprietary system he has developed over the last decade. His contrary premise: at extremes, he'll make money betting with the commercials, a/k/a, the smart money.

Huge current net long positions by commercials, in commodities from corn and soybeans to gold and platinum, Mike maintains, mean those markets are on the cusp of rallies -- and that bonds, which are sure to be spooked by even the slightest hint of inflation, and in which commercials have been engaged in record selling, are likely headed down. Also headed lower, as Mike reads his charts, is the dollar. Particularly against the yen, in which, he says, commercials have taken a record high buying position. We warned you, this isn't consensus stuff.

In technical terms, Mike notes, the weekly gold chart below shows that the low prices in the yellow metal, in yen, were tested back in January-and have since traced out "the purest definition, in technical terms, of a possible new bullish trend in any market, a higher high and a higher low."

What's more, even though -- when viewed in dollar terms -- gold only recently has disappointed diehards for the umpteenth time by setting new long-term lows in price, a Japanese view of the metal is quite different. Gold sank to its all-time low in yen terms way back in 1995 and, on monthly charts, seems to be testing what looks like the beginning stages of a long-term advance, he observes.

Stranger things have happened, we guess. Especially lately.

someone once said: the sophisification with which one solves a hypothesis is dependent upon how many variables a person can hold in consideration at any given time. what that someone didn't say is how do you determine which ones are the most important? for myself , as i have posted before the variable which gives me the most confidence is this new basic and huge demand for coins, because 1 ) it is good old fashion demand, and 2 ) because this can lead to speculation which we all know can be powerful. last, demand and speculation have been out of the market for a decade; and what might these two powerhouses do to the limited supply of silver?

It's not like the govt borrowed Gold from someone and every canadian owes 113 taels or something.

Canada's Debt is smoke and mirrors because nothing of value was borrowed, just figures on a ledger.

It is still a debt trap, and when/if the international bankers wish to foreclose then Canada will ressemble the Soviet Union of lore.

Note this goes for most every Country.

Panda: You are right -- switching power supplies are compatible with non sinewave generators or inverters. I forgot the contents of the article. But the monitor and printer may not have a switching power supply, and the harmonics may pass though, according to Elliot S. Frank on page 32-34.

I just pulled the circuit diagram for my video monitor. It has a transformer in the input -- probably due to a complex circuit that automatically senses 155 or 220 volt mains. The high voltage oscillators are elsewhere. I do not understand the details of the circuit, but that transformer might heat up or pass through the harmonics from a square wave 115 volt AC.

It might be wise to check out that non-sine wave 115 volt AC generator out with your computer, monitor and printer before paying hard cash.

Tuesday September 29, 11:43 am Eastern Time
LONDON, Sept 29 ( Reuters ) Abstracted

. . . Ted Arnold, first vice-president in charge of commodities research at Merrill Lynch, said he saw gold at $315.00 to $320.00 in the next fortnight. ``If these guys can't get it up there in the next few weeks then I think the bulls will need to get the doctors to prescribe them with tranquilisers,'' he told Reuters.

Further out, he said gold's best bet lay with the weaker dollar but that physical demand remained patchy throughout Asia and the Middle East. "I do not think this is the turn. This is a rally in what is still a bears' market,'' he said.

Gold was last at $294.50/$295.00 versus its Monday New York close of $295.70/$296.20.

wouldn't be prudent. Not at this juncture. Spin & wobble.

Hint : BBC newsid_183000/183412

This will probably change when the capital gains are reconciled.

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It's bullish - I bullshi*'s