.

Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
11:58PM
7773.18
-64.43
-0.82%

Have been reading your posts and enjoy them very much.
You are a well travelled individual and have knowledge of many countries.
Yes,, you are correct it is only ledgers and paper but the suckers who keep voting socialist pay the tax and stay poor.
Talk to you later,,,wife who is far too young is shuting me down.

They did the same to Quakers recently.
Any earning under expectation are being treated with utter contempt.

The herd is turning.
Their consciousness is changing from bulls to bears.

This earnings season will be devastating due to the Asia effect.

---------------------------------
A good read.
The Tech Review
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/TechReview/TechReview.html

--------------------------------------
Words of wisdom from my webmaster.
http://www.cairns.net.au/warnings.html
Back Orifice

I have been lurking here daily since last February. I became bullish on PM's and purchased heavily in January. Sold a little in March to cover my Summer Y2K preparations. Bought some more physical in August. Good timing so far. Can't possibly last...

Been visiting virtually all of the gold sites and reading everything for about a year. Seems to have worked so far. Still have good dry powder left. Waiting for the whites of their eyes...

Ready on the firing line???

Four percent ( 4% ) of 90 billion bucks is $3.6 billion, just what the banking buddies agreed upon to shore LTCM up, now if that 90 billion is correct a negative 4% change in the portofolio wipes the LTCM and their buddies out. Harharhar.

Remember these hedge funds are the same guys that shorted gold and ruined the Asian Tigers so that they could get a foothold in those economies and force Western Living Standards down and possibly your own demise. They even got the captive media to announce that the Tigers were selling gold wholesale.

Now the FED openly protects these vermin by brokering a deal, great example and crystal clear of how things really are.

You'll find much of interest amongst all these folders.
http://sunsite.unc.edu/pub/academic/environment/

There are three branchs and many sub-directories.
Also most directories have txt file indexes.
Which relate articles to files.

Some of the folders are duds
While others are absolute gems.

Shame there is not an articlulate index that linked all the articles.

-----
Here are some areas of interest.
Past copies of Hompwer Magazine
http://sunsite.unc.edu/pub/academic/environment/alternative-energy/energy-resources/homepower-magazine/>http://sunsite.unc.edu/pub/academic/environment/alternative-energy/energy-resources/homepower-magazine/

Misc energy resources.
http://sunsite.unc.edu/pub/academic/environment/alternative-energy/energy-resources/

------
There are so many good articles on alternative energy
Plus many other interesting alternative concepts.

Doesn't the feel of this Long-Term Capital thing smell of Karma coming back at them? I mean, isn't there a story about this Merriweather playing some kind of liars poker with a bid of ten million dollars? Meanwhile, they have the "smartest" and the best at their feet and look what happens? Let's hope karma is coming to a gold short near you....I think so.

All: The WJC story is really heating up! 5,000 more pages to be released by the Judiciary committee on Friday, and Dick Morris tells the grand jury the WJC has 'Secret Police' that terrorize women who have had affairs with the president. He said that the secret police consist of PI's Terry Lenzer and Jack Palladino, as well as White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Lindsey.

All of above apparently reported in Wednesday Chicago Tribune.

So WJC really does have something in common with Hitler. Good thing he got occupied with sexual matters -- it would have been much worse if he had used his secret police more efficiently. We might never have found out, and our democratic system might have been destroyed.

This is clearly criminal. Makes Nixon look like a pussycat. You can rest assured that Capital Hill insiders know much more. No wonder Janet Reno fell ill.

The Fed and these guys are one in the same.
Goldman Sachs & especially Chase Bank the Rockefellers. Chase Bank is one of the owners of the Federal reserve Bank.

HighRise

The Canadian Govt could say tomorrow, from now on we abolish all taxes. The Govt would get its money from the central bank just as it does now. Since the Govt isn't borrowing anything tangible, the loan doesn't have to be repaid.

What would happen is without the taxes, people would see that Govt spending/borrowing just inflates the money supply. People wouldn't want to hold C$'s under these circumstances because they see that it's constantly losing purchasing power. So then people would turn to tangibles ( like in Brazil ) or a stronger currency like Gold ( or a currency of a nation who taxes much of the currency out of circulation ) .

Again this No-tax scenario would lead to hyperinflation, and people would run from the currency.

BTW, congrats on your better, younger half.

Silver lease rates shot way up last Winter prior to the price surge. Do I correctly remember 70% or so. I thought I was smart when I was this I got in before Buffett announced his move. I have a lot of APEX at 11 and change and PAASF at 8 to 9. While they initially surged, they are my only losing positions right now....

Not sure I trust lease rates as a stand alone indicator anymore. Am I missing something? Will a small increase in lease rates for gold give us a big jump in price, or do we need to wait for a big increase in lease rates?

It is a giant shell game. The Fed says they didn't loan money to the hedge fund, that Chase and others did. Well who gave Chase the money? And who is the largest stock holder of the Federal reserve?

How about Goldman Sachs anounceing that they are going IPO, Abby Joseph Cohen buy now before Dow 10K pep talks. Then there is GS's Robert Rubin.

The general population is to busy watching the WWF Wrestling match to care about who is staling their money and country.

HighRise

I think the dialogue with Panda was important, for those who want to use portable off the grid power. The computer may work, but not necessarily the printer and monitor or other accessories that do not have switching power supplies. Could be that the right kind of UPS might help, though the harmonics might be lost as wasted power.

One of my pastimes has been to calculate cost of off the grid energy systems, just based on cost of future electricity. Nothing to do with y2k at the time. But -- thinking about it -- one of the obvious things that might happen is that y2k related events will cause the cost of the relevant good to go up.

Have you heard of Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Institute? He has been espousing the use of alternative energy, and increasing efficiency of power comsumption for years.

By the way a trailer or RV makes an excellent prototype for off the grid. I have lived for nearly a month in a 22 foot trailer with spouse before running out of bottled gas. Gas refridgerator, Gas light, 12 volt lights, and minimal electrical needs ( without using AC cooling ) . All one needs is a 12 volt solar array, water and food. You can use the trailer for fun if y2k never materializes. Still have it, though it needs some minor repairs. No generator. Come to think of it, 12 volt generators are simple in design compared to 115volt. All you need is an alternator for 30 bucks and a motor of some kind. Would still need invertor for computer. Pure sine wave now available from Trace, I think. Forget the airconditioner.

Guess where this blood came from? Yep, Arkansas prisoners. Any Canadian Kitcoites aware of this? Is this for real? http://209.67.114.212/forum/a3611adc9614e.htm

Don't concentrate on WJC, he's been selected to divert your attention so they will achieve their aim of a world of peons serving their every whim.

Yes, you have got that right.

Try to buy parts for the M1 tank. The US has to call Germany.

HighRise

Good Night All

HighRise

Welcome to this great site......I came into it myself only a short while ago.

I do agree with you that lease rates are a poser. Even the experts at the World Gold Council do not claim to understand them properly, and I am certainly in no position to explain them. All I would say is that ....it seems that rising lease rates may be a NECESSARY pre-requisite for a rise in the price of the metal, but high lease rates by themselves are not a SUFFICIENT pre-requisite for that rise. Other things must happen as well like an upsurge in demand for the metal.

Have you visited the WGC site and had a look at their archive of studies? WGC Research Study No18 is well worth a look. Its a pdf file so you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to see it.

Regards.....Dabchick

It's beyond imagination how these guys have gotten away with their evil deeds without a citizen backlash.

Must go........back at 04:00 with Tuesdays Lease rate figures.

I have especially enjoyed your comments.

The farm I just spent a week at.
My new Y2k hideaway is totally off the grid.
Water as well.

It is a great example of what can be set up.
It has one 12 foot water wheel for pumping water all over the used land.
Say 40 acres out of a total 250 acres.

Two dwellings each with their own solar systems and also petrol/diesel generators ( 4 of )

Lots of other added bits and pieces installed by an old timer who set the farm up before moving on.

It's amazing what a bit of ingenuity will do.
Especially over many years of tinkering.

I am intending to get a working knowledge on all these systems.
I would dearly love to run my PC from these existing power sources.

Currently we are considering the pro and cons of adding a water turbine or generator/alternator to the water wheel.
This beast generates an awesome ammount of energy which is not currently being used.
And I would consider water power one of the best systems of all.

It's almost kind of fun going to all these alternative systems.
Like going back to school playing with new toys.

---------------------
Swing chart updated.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

Also a blow up picture showing the topping out.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing1.jpg

Quite comfirmatory of the coming downswing when viewed with the long term tick oscillation.

I would be going short the S&P here.
That's if I had any funny money.

SWING ALERT - watch out below.

December 1995: Gold lease rates moved to 6% as the European CBs stopped lending at year end. This spike sent Gold over the $400.00 hump. Within several weeks of the new year the rates had fallen back down and Gold has faded since February of 1996. For those of you long, watch out.

JTF Said:
... The computer may work, but not necessarily the printer and monitor or other accessories that do not have switching power supplies. Could be that the right kind of UPS might help, though the harmonics might be lost as wasted power.
Comment:
I have had some ( negative ) experiences using computers off grid. I had originally thought that a UPS should solve the inverted power problems just as you wonder above, however, UPSs, in general, are designed for use with *clean* power. Inverted power ( especially Trace with their lying "Pure sine wave" logo is *so* dirty, as to keep the ( overly sensitive ) UPS kicking in every 30 seconds or so, until it never gets a chance to recover, and ultimately shuts down. I opted to run straight off the inverter ( no problems, but no protection ) . I have heard that there *are* UPSs that DO have the ability to be less fussy about bad power, but to be fair to the UPS, that is the job they are supposed to do...look at the power and switch if it's bad.

JTF further says:
... Would still need invertor for computer. Pure sine wave now available from Trace, I think.

Comment:
Again, check the people who have USED the Trace "Pure Sine Wave" inverter for *your* application. Remember just because it "says" "pure" doesn't make it so, but then again, isn't that what the KITCO experience offers? ... Discernment?

About 5 weeks ago I replied to an e-mail posting in the FT can't now remember what was asked ,but sung the virtues of gold and recomende golden-eagle,kitco,privateer etc.
low and behold I get an e-mail thanking for the info and yes How do i buy gold in the UK she now has that info and your url Sharefin
thats about 8 new bugs in a week.

go gold

cpo

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

Inverters; Trace: http://www.traceengineering.com/action/index.html
Don't forget batteries. lots of deep-cycle batteries, and something to charge them with.

sharefin -- As usual, some quite interesting articles you've posted URLs for. Thanks!

I have a house in the Sierras which I built 5 years ago. I have a Trace inverter which has never failed to run anything I attempted to run off of it. I've probably logged 100+ hours of word processing time with hundreds of pages printed on a dot matrix printer. I have also used a large microwave and a 1.5 horsepower vacuum.

All of this technical talk intrigued me. Our house is completely off the grid and I lived there full-time for a year and half. I run everything there off of solar and I've never had a problem in 5 years time.

I think a lot of it has to do with the type of inverter you select. I think Trace is the best. The unit I have will deliver 3000 Watts continuous. The only limiting factor is the capacity of the batteries.

In winter months after several days of clouds and heavy usage of appliances we have had to be careful not to leave lights on etc. The system is hard wired into a circuit breaker and all outlets and appliances function normally.

The system is extremely efficient because it does not convert DC to AC until it "senses" a load. Induction motors should not be used unless you turn on a light first to get the A/C going. Otherwise it is just like city power.

The wave my inverter creates is a mofied sine wave. I ran my computer through a power conditioner but I don't think this mader any difference.

The people at the keyboards feeding public pension funds
into the Nikkei prob'ly stepped out early to catch the last donut.

and dropping like a rock in the last 5 minutes of trading. Warm up the presses and call the PPT.

Thanks mate
It's all a great leaning curve for us all.

Recently I've been delving into lots of info about all this alternative energy.
And then I log onto Kitco
And find there are lots of very informed people here.

KUDOS_to_the_fine_minds@KITCO

-----------------------
Schultz
You have a fine system.
I'll be glad and greatfull if I can get these existing sytems up to your levels.
They are all working but in an untidy/unkempt way.

If you have any pertinent info regards your system you'd like to share.
Please drop us a line.
sharefin@cairns.net.au

----------
CPO
Yes, I am very gratified at the response to my web pages.
I wish I had more time to really get them finished.
I still have a 1000 or so urls to add and some more pages to start.

Namaste

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 1:59AM 13462.94 -358.4 -2.59% :- (

There is a book out or soon to be released on HIV
contaminated blood from the Arkansas prison system
during Wild Bill's tenure as governor. The book
was written under a pseudonym by a doctor in the
system. He was on a Calgary talk radio show about
three weeks and it is another astounding story.
Clinton according to that writer was up to his elbows
in this.

Must have been a bad batch o sushi. The
buy-the-dipsters probably won't even notice.

Down 6 pts in an hour.
Some big bids going through.
---------------
J Stack.
--
The Federal Reserve did cut the Federal Funds Rate today - for all the
reasons listed on our weekend update. But it was 1/2 the cut already
expected by the Treasury market. Thus the sell-off in stocks; and the
disappointment's far from over. This was a token gesture to try to stabilize
the markets... nothing less, nothing more. The next 5 weeks remain
vulnerable to a liquidity crisis and/or crash.

Durban Roodepoort Deep wants to acquire Hartebeesfontein Gold Mine in order to increase the group's gold production from the current level of 645,000 ounces per year to 1.2 million ounces. See press report at http:/www.drd.co.za/

It does not look good for our Japanese brothers.I think this is a new low

It is starting to feel like fall. I hate the heat!

There are lots of ways to charge a bank of batteries; Solar, wind, water, and generators. I think the best fuel burning generator would be propane. It doesn't 'rot' like gasoline and it doesn't feed microbes like diesel, and it keeps virtually forever until used. It reduces required maintenance on the generator quite a bit. It is only about 10% less efficient than gasoline while natural gas is more like 20% less efficient than gasoline. To maximize fuel usage to the max with any of the fuel burning generators, use them only/mainly to charge a bank of batteries and run the lights and appliances from the batteries either as low voltage DC or through an inverter for the AC requirements. Low wattage 12V lighting is available.

But GCz8 down just .20 on Globex. Hmmm, I may regret reshorting PDG. If POG can hold up against strengthening USD, then I'll be a believer.

The Nikkei actually closed at 13,406, down 415. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/bp.html

Globex? i know i should know, but could someone explain. thanking you in advance.

My dad thinks gold is dead. But he also thinks bank stocks are a steal.

'Maximize fuel usage' should be replace with 'Maximize fuel efficiency'! Running full load to recharge batteries is much preferred to running 1/4 load ( or less ) to operate a refrigerator or the like.

http://www.friend.ly.net/GEET/backup.htm
Gas and Diesel Generator Systems

-----------------------------
And this article is a good one to print and show to the non Year2000 believers.
You only need to read it three times to understand why it is time to be prudent.

Got Gold, Grub, Generators & Guns - ? - ? - ?

-------------------------------
http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=16&rtn=y2kman.htm

The Y2K "Iron Triangle"

Our modern society is completely dependent on the free flow of electricity, information, and money. Think about this for a moment. Reflect on the profound nature of this incredible dependency. Modern technology has become a necessity to the way of life in all countries with a high standard of living. The entire way of life in North America, Europe, Japan, Australia, and nearly every other highly developed country in the world depends on these three core industries: electrical power, telecommunications ( voice and data ) , and banking.

Now, I'm not going to argue that there aren't other highly important industries. The early 70's oil crisis in the USA proved we are an extremely oil dependent country, and we're more so now than we were then. We depend on our military power, police and fire departments, and government to protect us as well. However, none of these industries or services can function without electricity, telecommunications, and banks. Electricity, telecom ( voice and data ) , and banks are the "iron triangle."

Gary North was the first person to bring the "iron triangle" to my attention. I started reading Dr. North's "Remnant Review" newsletter in late 1996. Shortly thereafter Dr. North began developing what has become one of the most popular and extensive Y2k web sites on the Internet. Gary North is a writer and economist. He isn't a computer systems professional. However, he has grasped the potential systemic impact of the Y2k problem far better than almost every computer systems professional I know, with the possible exception of Ed Yourdon.

I'm a computer systems professional. I'm also a nobody. I don't have the credentials of computer guru Ed Yourdon, or the prestige of economist Dr. Edward Yardeni. I was simply paying attention when Dr. Gary North started promoting Y2k awareness. I'm just a regular guy ( with a computer systems background ) trying to make sense of this whole Y2K thing.

I'm firmly convinced that Y2k will have significant impact on the "iron triangle." What nobody knows is how significant this impact will be. If the "iron triangle" collapses, we're in serious trouble. Any combination of severe problems between these three core industries is just as likely to cause the Y2k "worst case scenario" as the complete implosion of one of the core industries alone.

Our current world economy is very resilient. It has survived wars, plagues, famines, and natural disaster. In fact these very things actually contribute to the global economy. War is good for business, and disease provides need for medical care and services. Famines increase demand for food from overproducing countries, and natural disaster provides opportunity for rebuilding. However, our "global village" isn't indestructable. We just have short memories.

Remember that past performance ( i.e. the last 250 years ) is not a guarantee of future results. If you take a broader view of history you'll discover at least seven world dominating civilization/empires have come and gone. Are we so arrogant as to think our civilization is indestructable? I'm sure the Egyptians, Assyrians, Persians, Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, and British all thought the same thing, but their empires collapsed. Pride precedes the fall.

Our current global economy has an Achillies heal called Y2k. Just stick around until mid-year 2000 if reading the information on this and other Y2k web sites doesn't convince you. Of course, the prudent man or woman will make contingency plans anyway just to be safe. You buy insurance, don't you?

Y2k is the biggest crisis facing mankind at the moment, even if the masses don't realize it. It has the potential to collapse our world economy. Many people could die as a direct result of Y2k. However, in spite of that possibility I have hope. People may brand me a pessimist or "doom and gloomer," but I'm really just the most pragmatic optimist you'll ever meet. Y2k may not trigger the end of the world, but even if it does I still have hope.

Why do I have hope? I still have hope because my hope is not in the ability of man to overcome his circumstances. That is a false and futile hope. What Y2k should be teaching us is that autonomous man cannot find salvation within himself. If we are to survive the Y2k crisis, I'm firmly convinced it will only be due to the grace of a sovereign and merciful God. Hopefully, we will learn our lesson about where we place our hope for the future.

But what if things go really bad? What if Gary North is right? What if the division of labor collapses due to the failure of the "iron triangle"? Is Y2k God's judgement on man? I don't know. Perhaps it is just God removing his restraining grace and allowing us to get what we deserve. After all, we created this mess.

Is Y2k our just reward for forgetting our Maker and placing our faith in the false gods of prosperity and technology? Is the humanist experiment and fractional reserve banking coming to an end? I don't know for sure, but it seems to me that we are on the brink of a new era. And it is pretty clear that the transition will be a rough ride. Change is always uncomfortable, and in the case of Y2k it may be extremely painful or even deadly.

Most of us will undoubtedly make it to the other side of the Y2k crisis. Some of us won't. A few people won't even make it to tomorrow. Somewhere there are people who won't make it to the next hour or even the next minute. Death is one of the few guarantees in this life, regardless of the outcome of Y2k.

So, what are you living for? If you were to die at this moment, would you be certain of your destiny? If not, does Y2k really matter? What in the world does this have to do with Y2k?

Y2k Watch isn't a religious website, but we do want to make it clear up front that we hold a Christian world view. ( Have you ever seen the main stream media admit up front that they promote a humanistic world view? ) We hope you appreciate our honesty, and we hope our website attracts not only Christians, but also those skeptical about the Christian faith. However, this means that our priorities are a bit different from the secular world's.

In our view, getting right with God should be the number one priority in all our lives, not just in Y2k preparedness planning. Ensuring you have physical and financial preparations in place for Y2k is important, but at Y2k Watch we believe the Bible defines the truth and provides a guide on how we should live. This affects our Y2k perspective. You can fill a rural retreat with groceries, gold and guns, but what will it profit you if you lose your soul?

We hope you appreciate our perspective on the Y2k issue. Click on "Email Alerts" below to subscribe to our free email list, the Y2k-Watch News. Then click "Y2k Weatherman" to access the Y2k-Watch News Archive to view previous articles posted to our email list. Thanks for stopping by.

May the Truth be known!

The Y2k Weatherman
1998 by Y2k-Watch

If you thought the Drudge site was wild with Grand Jury testimony of
White House intimidation team, check out this site....

---------------------
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/exclusiv/980929.exbre_clintons_secr.html

THE IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY
Clinton's secret war games

He's scheming for strike to make him international hero


This is the first of a two-part series on the revelations of military
computer expert Curt Tomlin.

By David M. Bresnahan
Copyright 1998, WorldNetDaily.com

President Bill Clinton is playing war games on a top secret computer
to come up with a way to be an international hero, according to the
man who designed the system.

According to Rev. Curt Tomlin, a former member of the battle staff of
both presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, Clinton is a
desperate man who is like an animal trapped in a corner. He will do
anything to regain his credibility and deflect criticism from his
impending impeachment hearings, he says. He also is driven by his
desire to create a positive legacy of his time in the White House,
according to various reports.

Clinton's motivations are dangerous to the security of our nation,
according to Tomlin. It was Tomlin who designed and perfected the
Pentagon's first war games computer system, the top secret "Single
Integrated Operating Procedure."

The "SIOP" computer is a method of targeting a military attack and
evaluating the most likely response to that attack, according to
Tomlin. Highly classified intelligence information is gathered from
all over the world by the CIA and other sources, placed in the
computer, and then accessed by Clinton to play his own personal war
games.

"The decisions he's making right now are totally illogical and
irresponsible," Tomlin told WorldNetDaily in an exclusive interview.
"Looking at the power and everything he's got at his finger tips.
That's a dangerous situation for a spastic individual."

( remaining article clipped, I'm getting paranoid now that Free
Republic is being sued by the major media in a frenzied
attempt to stop the hemorraging of their readership )

could anyone tell me if the kitco metals quotes at night are correct, timely and what mkt/s do they reflect?

The quotes are in "New York Time" and are supposed to reflect spot
gold prices 24 hours a day from all around the world. Unfortunately,
Kitco has been a little ill lately and seems to stop working at
night...... Click on the graphs at the left to see what markets are
trading at what hours of the day. Sometime "Detailed Quotes" work
when the top bar doesn't. If Kitco isn't working ( like now )
try http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm for Futures quotes ( not spot )
This site is very reliable. I hope this helps....

quotecom after hours has GCZ8 down 80 cents
and SIZ8 down 5.5 cents

And I thought fall was a long way off.

This bear feels like stretching his claws at the moment.
What with my swing charts, the advance/decline charts, watching the tick, seeing the global indices etc
Knowing we're just entering the earnings season
And slipping into October.

Oh My!

I should be shorter than a dwarf.
Like 6 foot shorter.

-----------------
Mole
Have a look here.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm

You'll find sites for globex at the top of the "Markets" column.
And lots of links to gold prices amongst the 'US Market Data" & "Gold Reports" columns.

Globex is the term generally refered to the SP500 future.
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
Acutally globex is the quotes for many futures on indices, currencies etc.

The future we refer to as globex is the overnight trading of the SP500 future.
The Prem is the difference between the physical and the future contract.

So the future is the future bet of where the sp500 index is traveling.

Sort of like the carrot in front of the donkey.
It is best watched at this site.
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

At "Sym" type in SPZ8 which is the Dec contract
And under the chart setting set it to "all sessions"
And also set "candles" and "volume" on.

You can then adjust the time frame to suit youself.

You can also watch the gold future here plus much more.
For gold type in GCZ8
Silver SIZ8

In my opinion one of the most accurate sites for watching the POG fluctuate live on a chart.

------------------
The "PREM" yesterday is worth a look at.
You can see it go wild when AG can onstage.
Then the PPT at work???

Set the time scale to 2 minutes.

It went from +11 to - 3 to +13 to +2 to +12 all in 20 minutes as they went flat out to stabilize the markets.

Talk about wild.
This is not a normal market.
It seems ready to collapse if left to its own.

The PPT will be sharpening their pencils tonight.
And polishing their telephones.

Art Bell has Stan Deyo on, Sept 29/Sept30th show... that's Tues nite/Wedns
show at http:/www.artbell.com, find it in the archives later if you want to
hear it in its' entirety.

Stan came on the show at 2am, so you can fastforward the archived show...
Stan has experience in programming for y2k, and has some astonishing things
to say about when this whole mess begins for us.

I'm sitting here, listening to it, and I can't believe that they are
actually discussing this, with millions of people listening. If we haven't
seen paranoia, we will very shortly...think I'll call Healing Herbs in the
morning.

quotecom has GCZ8 down $1.30
bad times for stock market tomorrow... SPZ8 down 1360

Here are the Lease Rates calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.

MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild

GOLD------------1-Month----------3-month---------6-Month----------12 Month
LIBOR------------5.34--------------5.31--------------5.25----------------5.06
MGLR------------3.87---------------3.65-------------3.53-----------------3.28
Gold Lease Rate-1.47--------------1.66-------------1.72------------------1.78

SILVER-----------1-Month----------3-Month--------6-Month-----------12-Month
LIBOR-------------5.34--------------5.31--------------5.25-----------------5.06
Silver Lend Rate--2.70--------------1.75--------------1.40-----------------1.40
Silver Lease Rate-2.64--------------3.56--------------3.85-----------------3.60
NB. Because the 0.25 interest rate reduction was announced 3 hours after the London close, the above rates may not have incorporated that reduction. Also, I do not know at what time of day NM Rothschild calculate the Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates.
I will post the above data each weekday, Tuesday to Friday, at this Kitco time until anyone tells me to stop. On Saturdays I will post a summary of the week's Lease Rates ( including data for the Friday ) at 10:00 Kitco time.
Thank you to Auric and Aurator for your kind acknowledgement yesterday of Monday's data. It was generous of you not to draw attention to the error in the 12-month Gold Lease Rate. I had better do one hundred lines for rhody after school.......506 minus 324 equals 182 ( not 282 ) !!!!
Thanks also to rhody. I will be in touch later.
Regards........Dabchick

We just started getting his program about 3 months ago on the weekends. He really is a trip. He sounds just like David Brinkley. He is actually very pleasant to listen to. Did you catch his Y2K commercial? Can't remember what product he was hawking. Some food storage outfit. He says something like-- "I have some good news and bad news. The good news? Romona ( his wife ) and I have enough food to last us for a year. The bad news is, YOU may not be able to. Why? Because of Y2K, which ALL the experts are talking about." Classic!

0.25% fed funds cut w/ no discount rate cut a disappointment to FC traders. Imminent sharp $US rally bad for gold, will retrace to $288-290. Intermediate term island top in SIZ8 likely with lower opening tomorrow. With SPOOS in freefall and $US strengthening, bonds should continue their blowoff rise. XAU correction should find support in high 50s/low 60s. Opportunity for accumulation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/co.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980929/foreign_ex_2.html

Did you see the charts I posted on the Dabchick Gold Index?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Dabdata.jpg

Also with spreads against gold
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Dabspread.jpg

I'd love to do some charts on the lease rates.
I already have some data files on the rates but are lacking recent data.
Do you have any data?
Also any other data sets you wish to plot.
Email me at sharefin@cairns.net.au

Auric
I have yet to hear the transcripts.
And what a great way to drive the message home.
The Gov't should be doing the same.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2710
And now comes the bad news. Some $10 trillion ( yes, $10,000,000,000,000 ) in derivative contracts are set to mature this year for U.S. bankers, and the U.S. bankers are holding their collective breath to see which of their Asian clients will pay up. Many won't. "Those who believe there won't be any further derivative losses from Asia couldn't be more mistaken," says Edward Furash, a bank consultant based in Washington.
----------------------------------
The Food Supply Pipeline: Why One Company Quit
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2715
I'm not sure whether it is entirely attributable to Y2K, but our company is seeing a big increase in government orders, primarily to prison systems which are increasing their food stocks ( several have indicated that they are aware of Y2K and are slowly building their food inventories to accommodate potential shortage problems. Remember, ours is a nation that is approaching 2 million inmates... so this is a big problem ) .
------
Gas and Oil: Legitimate Reasons for Public Panic
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2721

--------------------------
And lots more good reviews at
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/latest_.cfm

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2724
A few days ago, I had a little fun with Roger W. Ferguson, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He delivered a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, on the economic challenges ahead, and he never mentioned y2k. Odd. Or was it?

My hypothesis at the time was that y2k is so important that he dared not mention it. I still think so. I now have additional evidence.

Today, I stumbled across the fact that Dr. Ferguson is the chairman of the Joint Year 2000 Council, which includes the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , the central bankers' central bank, the most influential secular organization on earth.

Now, wouldn't you imagine that Dr. Ferguson might have at least mentioned y2k? I mean, he is the number 1 y2k front man on y2k for the international banking community. But, from what we can glean from his speech, he had never heard of y2k.

It's not that he's a dim-witted fellow. Dim-witted fellows don't graduate from Harvard magna cum laude, or graduate from the Harvard Law School, or earn a Ph.D. from Harvard. ( I guess he really liked Harvard. ) No, we must search for another explanation.

If you think the Masters of the Fractional Reserve Universe are dealing forthrightly with this issue, you need to come up with an explanation of Dr. Ferguson's speech that doesn't have "cover-up" embossed on it.

Y2K is a force so powerful that they dare not speak its name. ( Well, the FED's Edward Kelley, Jr., is allowed to, but as he speaks, heads begin to nod, and the sound of snoring fills the room. )

The following is a press release from the BIS. I especially liked this item, given Dr. Ferguson's recent lapse of memory on y2k:

"The purpose of the Joint Year 2000 Council is to ensure a high level of attention to the Year 2000 computer problem on the part of the global financial supervisory community, to share information on regulatory and supervisory strategies and approaches, to discuss possible contingency measures and to serve as a point of contact with national and international private sector initiatives."
A few days ago, I had a little fun with Roger W. Ferguson, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He delivered a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, on the economic challenges ahead, and he never mentioned y2k. Odd. Or was it?

My hypothesis at the time was that y2k is so important that he dared not mention it. I still think so. I now have additional evidence.

Today, I stumbled across the fact that Dr. Ferguson is the chairman of the Joint Year 2000 Council, which includes the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , the central bankers' central bank, the most influential secular organization on earth.

Now, wouldn't you imagine that Dr. Ferguson might have at least mentioned y2k? I mean, he is the number 1 y2k front man on y2k for the international banking community. But, from what we can glean from his speech, he had never heard of y2k.

It's not that he's a dim-witted fellow. Dim-witted fellows don't graduate from Harvard magna cum laude, or graduate from the Harvard Law School, or earn a Ph.D. from Harvard. ( I guess he really liked Harvard. ) No, we must search for another explanation.

If you think the Masters of the Fractional Reserve Universe are dealing forthrightly with this issue, you need to come up with an explanation of Dr. Ferguson's speech that doesn't have "cover-up" embossed on it.

Y2K is a force so powerful that they dare not speak its name. ( Well, the FED's Edward Kelley, Jr., is allowed to, but as he speaks, heads begin to nod, and the sound of snoring fills the room. )

The following is a press release from the BIS. I especially liked this item, given Dr. Ferguson's recent lapse of memory on y2k:

"The purpose of the Joint Year 2000 Council is to ensure a high level of attention to the Year 2000 computer problem on the part of the global financial supervisory community, to share information on regulatory and supervisory strategies and approaches, to discuss possible contingency measures and to serve as a point of contact with national and international private sector initiatives."
http://www.bis.org/press/p980721.htm

What happens when one point in a system fails.

Costs are now being put in the $1billion range.
One point of contact blew out.

Thousands of people being sacked in three other states.
No hot food, no hot showers.
But worst of all no manufacturing.

Imagine billions/millions of points of contact blowing out.
And happening in a rolling 24 hour period that spans the globe.

Do you think it will not impact you if your services are ok?

Think again.
Got Gold, Grub, Generators and Guns?

Points in the system......

Lets now, hopefully, apply this to the GOLD DERIVATIVE MARKET....

12 000 000 ounces gold, when will LTCB have to deliver.......

Aye,

Haggis

Many thanx for your 05:08 ......I have just seen your chart of the Dabchick gold index and its great. Thanks again.

I can certainly post some Gold Lease Rate data. I have kept track of the 3-month Gold Lease rate for quite a few years on a daily basis. I already have it in the form of weekly ( end-of-day ) Close/High/Low starting Jan 1995 and will post it here shortly. If you don't mind I would rather go the Kitco route rather than via E-Mail as then anyone can make a chart who wants to even if only manually

Regards..........Dabchick

gooday from the chilly Midwest......the problem is that most people I and my wife ( the good witch of the North ) have spoken to about 2k really think that Bill Gates or IBM will '' save the day" at a great cost to all of us. With all of the contorted bull hockey they've been fed, I can't say as I blame them. Too much cynisism here in the states. The media will not investigate the facts to present to the public and until that happens, the beat goes on............get gold .. guns .. grub ..bbl

The Nikkei will hit 13 000............things are bad enough when 14 000 was hit as a critical point, now it is below 14 000..........Tokyo and Houston - we both have a problem...

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/

Rate Cut Day p;us one.

Globex down,bonds up,dollar up,metals down,oil dowm.

Looks like the market will start off down. Metal seem a little funny, but I'm not sure why.

http://www.drudgereport.com/

Definitely is LTCM short on Gold?Any sources.
Thanks

Gollum don't count the metals down for the opening just yet. Silver after falling a low as 5.30 has moved five cents up on the day. Gold is kicking around unchanged and was up 50 cents a half hour ago in London.

I think the international markets got a whiff of the sudden change of sentiment here on Kitco to mildly bearish and BOT. ( Projections of $285, $250, $215 started creeping back on the board after a few day's of absence. )

ouldn't be surprised to see consolidation at these levels as disappointing as it is to see gold fail its second try at $300, especially with respected analysts like Rhody and APH sounding warning signals. Who needs Ted Arnold. If silver can rally on a 800k oz input to the Comex stocks I'll be impressed that it seems somebody wants the stuff. After six days up in a row it deserves a rest.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980929/vengold_1.html

XAU T/A
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/9-29%20XAU%20-%20daily.gif

Princeton Economics commentary on Gold and Silver
Gold: Caution
Silver: Very Bullish
Platinum: Possible Temp. Low
Palladium: Possible Crash
Click on Global Markets View ( left menu ) then #4. ( right menu )
http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

Did the market get excited about this rate cut or what !

I wasn't counting metals to be down at the open.

I feel the equities market will be firmly down. Metals happened to be down moment I looked at them, but looked strangely strong considering the dollar and bonds.

They have indeed, now strengthened considerably with silver in particular looking very bullish.

In anticipation of market disappointment with the size of the rate cut yesterday, many traders took a long position in the PM stocks. By near the end of the day the market hadn't particularly done anything with the PM stocks and the metal markets couldn't give any guidance since they were already closed. So the PM stocks got dumped.

Overnight the metals hve held their ground and are even gaining some strength so I look to the PM stocks to come back up, especially since the broad market looks weak in comparison.

My 2 cents worth: poeple claiming to have inside information have posted here saying they did not have a short gold position. If they do it doesn't seem like there has been any panic to get out of the short position.

It seems to me that the CB are so strong that they can stop a gold rally when ever they want. The accepted reasoning seems to be that when in need to stop gold's ascent they make plenty of gold available for lease at very low interest rates, thus raising the return to the party taking the gold, selling it and investing it in some higher interest bearing instrument.

Now I can understand the CBs wanting to maintain a lid on gold, especially until the intorduction of the Euro has smoothly and profitably ( for them ) taken place. But what are they thinking. They've lent all this gold out, if they are indeed going to stop this practice at in '99 what do they think is going to happen. The parties having taken out the leases would have a hard time returning the gold profitably. The CB probably don't care, but do they care about defaults. Is containment of gold's price that important to them.

I conclude that the Central Banks think it highly important to contain gold at $300, that the leasing practice is not going to end any time soon; that the parties taking out the leased gold know the CB agenda and intent to stop rallies; and the CBs see deflation big time in the months ahead, when the price of gold will be much lower to their clients and their own benefit in terms of the repurchase and additional purchse of gold.

GGO held up nicely yesterday, anybody know why? Thanks.

Just got this tape in the mail yesterday. Haven't viewed it yet but
should be interesting. The implications of such an assasins network
for Clintler in simply mind-boggling. Impeachment is not enough; he
simply must go to jail at the least, being tried for his many crimes.

T1: thanks for the kevlar tip.

That is all.

I thought that the spike in lease rates which occured friday triggerred a fall in spot gold price because of lease gold used to pure short selling.So if lease rates goes down now it is very probable that short selling will slow down.
P.S:
IMHO,we must be careful with lease rates not to mix causes and effects ( are they a cause or an effect? ) .
Please comment.
Thanks

Agree with your assessment. My apologies for faintly misrepresenting your perdiction.

Metals are doing pretty well given the dollar strenght and the bonds new highs - 130-16 basis Dec T bonds.

What's happening to my beloved Palladium - are we really down $10 with the possibility out there of " a crash" accordind to Princeton Economics. Aren't these the same guys that were looking for $3.50 silver when it was at $4.85??

For once they will probably be right.

Your oblique references to the dark days of Sept. may prove out today. It's my sense that the Nikkie today reflects the conclusion of the Japanese that the US consumer market that has so far kept them out of the abyss is itself heading for a significant slowdown. Lower CPI, layoffs, lower earnings... all the indications of a negative growth trend. The Euro markets are showing this. I expect that the US markets will today follow rather than lead, and Latin American markets also. This may be a very significant down day as the US market prices the apparent more ominous future into stock prices. They'll have to to do it some day. Today seems like as good a day as any.
-EJ

Grandpa bought me my first oscilloscope when I was fourteen.....still got it and the tube tester, voltmeter, thousands of tubes, caps, resistors...remeber the 1B3??? He said that electronics was the future. He wasn't wrong very often.
You often speak of alternative energy, and sharefin does too. I was prez of a company, Calorific, that developed an advanced, patented anaerobic process for converting organic wastes into methane, CO2 and microbial protein products. We worked ten years perfecting the process at a full size facility outside Guymon, OK.. Over the years, features of our work appeared in National Geographic, Time, Newsweek, US News, and all the national networks. The facility costs 25 mm, private dollars, and was quite remarkable.
At the facility, we fed the reactors 500 tons of organic wastes daily, primarily cattle manure. The reactors continuously stirred and heated 2.5 million gallons of slurry each. We scrubbed and compressed the gas and shipped it to Chicago via pipeline. We harvested the bacteria with polymers, which we helped to develop, and huge Sharples centrifuges. The dehydrated bacterial mass was then moved to a 250 ton/day mill where we combined it with other "conventional" protein sources and carbohydrates to feed back to livestock in pelleted form. Our pellet mills were, at that the time, the largest in the world....500 hp.

I am also the guy who finally convinced the FDA to allow refeeding processed wastes to feedlot cattle. Four years of petitioning, numerous successful tests at Cornell, OSU, Texas Tech, U. of Illinois and Davis, resulted in the approval. It is currently listed in their GRAS ( generally regarded as safe ) manual as PAWD ( processed animal waste derivative ) . So youse guys can blame ME for mad cow disease!

When the price of protein fell and the price of natural gas plummmeted, all at the same time, in 1985, we closed the plant. But I still know how to do it...and believe me, it's NOT EASY!

Also, had a company called Syngas, which held fluid bed, hydrogasification technologies patents which we acquired from Battelle Memorial. Incredibly advanced processes to convert munincipal wastes into medium BTU gases, and reclaim glass and metals. We never got past pilot plant scale ( Baltimore ) because of low energy prices. We still own these patents....and all this may come back into play...hopefully before I am recycled.

you see.....you just never KNOW......salud!!!

Just looked at ABX chart showing recent spike down and recovery since. IMHO chart is very positive, with a move holding above 300 an oz we will be off to the races. Christmas season may make the difference. If the fed had lowered by .5 I think we would have moved up probably thru 300.
Again GGO stood out and I don't know why.

goldy88

My, conclusion, FWIW, is that there may be some short-term perturbations in the lease rates due to short-term demand surges, but on balance....if the price of gold is being manipulated, the lease rates are the strings used to move the puppet around.

jims

You and I have about the same opinions on this.....that's principally why I haven't jumped head over heels into the market ( yet ) . I believe 1999 is the year of gold, but that doesn't mean a lot could happen to the price of gold, ( and especially mining stocks ) until then, up and down. I still feel they will try to control the price below spot US$300/oz until the end of this year. Will they lose control? This is an open question, but one must assume that the protection of their paper is the prime directive for now, and they are not without very substantial resources.

the following URL lets you do all kinds of cross currency/metal charting. GREAT PAGE.

Want to see something ugly - take a look at gold in Swiss Francs. They should have sold their gold - or bought puts in SFs or something. Chart is horrible. Significant resistance just overhead. Our August to September rally looks like nothing but a pause in a long downtrend in SFs. Looks like a fifth wavedown or somethng awful is still yet to happen. Also see silver in British pounds and platinum in yen - these charst will temper your bullishness. Put these things up on your wall for easy reference whenever the urge to buy along with a rally hits you.
Of course there is also the ringet . . .

Got so spooked I forgot - see for yourself, very handy page.

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot

The world is safe now. Go back to sleep.But only after you tell your broker to buy hard in nasdaq. The P/E ratios aren't quite high enough yet. These are the headlines they would like to print.

Right.....no global bull in gold until it is going up almost everywhere.
Charts of gold in Euopean currencies are really awful. If the dollar continues to fall without a counterbalancing rally, they will continue to go down, since gold is priced only in US dollars ( for now ) .

By Andrew Morse

TOKYO, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks, which collapsed to a 12-year
low as the fiscal half-year closed on Wednesday, will likely race to find a
new bottom amid concerns the November earnings season could be even
more racking than expected.

``All I can see is sellers for the time being,'' said Masayuki Nishina, a trader at New Japan Securities, who said the
widely watched Nikkei average was likely to decline to 12,500 before the year-end.

On Wednesday -- the last day of the fiscal half-year -- a toxic brew of concern over the financial system and earnings
sent the Nikkei skidding 415.04 points or 3.00 percent to end at 13,406.39, its lowest level since February 21, 1986.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/er.html

New bad news for Wall Street. The world's second largest economy is heading down the staircase to the one remaining landing just above the basement.

-EJ

Yes. This is "depths" day.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
Globex say big down NYSE open. Gold up a dime, silver up 2.5 cents, Japan down 3%, Germany 2.5%, France 3.5%. Who says the derivative crisis is over?

Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power. Change in the dollars status ,either inflation or deflation, will cause a rise in gold.

Metals right at their highs, platinum bid at its high of the day. Dollar weakening a little.

S&P on its but down 15

I may be crazy for being 35% in metal stocks but at least the rest is in non derivative cash.

If you were a western-european Central Banker leasing gold while the price is moving down ( as in those charts ) you would be getting the highest return on a quickly depreciating asset ( in your currency ) , you would ( hopefully ) get the leased gold back, and you could buy LOTS more for the same amount of your currency as the price goes down.

Want to pick the bottom in gold? Watch the gold price in SF, DM, and FF for a break in the downtrend.

Think maybe you could "jiggle" the frames this morning for us??

tia...

bd

September 28, 1998

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

WASHINGTON--As the Federal Reserve's policymaking body meets
Tuesday amid expectations of an interest-rate cut, normally criticism-free
Chairman Alan Greenspan faces reproof for bailing out a highly speculative
hedge fund and then helping it more by altering the central bank's grand
strategy.

Long-Term Capital Management, which from its Greenwich, Conn., base
makes risky bets worldwide, was saved from bankruptcy by an emergency
meeting at the New York Federal Reserve Bank that raised $3.5 billion from
Wall Street giants to pay the company's anxious creditors. The next day,
Greenspan hinted broadly that long-anticipated monetary easing by the Fed
will take place this week.

This looks a lot like the Federal Reserve caricature painted by populists for
much of the last century: impervious to woes of businessmen and farmers in
the real economy but ready for quick action when high-flying investors are
imperiled. A former Fed vice chairman sitting as a principal of Long-Term
Capital adds to the perception of the buddy system at work.

Greenspan is arguably the most successful public servant of his generation,
nearly immune from congressional criticism as no previous Fed chairman has
been. But now, he may face questions about ``moral hazard''--encouraging
investors to increase future risks, confident that their losses will be made
good.

For reasons unrelated to a hedge fund's crisis, pressure has been building for
a Fed rate cut to fight global deflation and avert a U.S. recession. The first
demand came from supply-sider Jude Wanniski, followed by Jack Kemp,
Rep. David Dreier and former Fed Governor Wayne Angell. What's more,
behind President Clinton's vow of public silence about the Fed, senior
administration officials privately have made it clear to Greenspan they feel
now is the time to ease.

Greenspan's signal in his Sept. 4 Berkeley, Calif., speech that ease was on its
way proved to be a false alarm. Clinton administration officials say he
indicated to them that opposition by the inflation hawks on the Federal Open
Market Committee ( FOMC ) , led by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank
President Jerry Jordan, was too intense. They still are worried about inflation,
not recession. The perception in government and financial circles was that
Greenspan eventually would get a rate cut, though not at Tuesday's FOMC
meeting.

But after Berkeley, strategists at Long-Term Capital guessed wrong. Their
gambling losses derived in part from expecting that Greenspan would have cut
rates by now. Whether or not the Fed was culpable in the hedge fund's
imminent collapse, the central bankers feared disintegration of the whole
banking system. William McDonough, president of the New York Federal
Reserve Bank and Greenspan's right-hand man, took the night flight from
London to New York to mount the rescue operation Wednesday night, with
Greenspan's blessing.

That assembling of U.S. financial power brokers at New York Fed
headquarters was supposed to be secret but was quickly leaked, exposing the
link between the central bank and the speculators. David Mullins, close to
Greenspan as Fed vice chairman from 1991 to 1994, took the familiar
journey for central bank governors to million-dollar jobs and is now a
Long-Term Capital partner who was active in pleading for funds just before
the bailout.

Former Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey sent this comment to his clients:
``Today, Fed officials helped engineer a bailout of a key hedge fund. We can
only view this as a decision to place short-term market safety ahead of
long-term concerns about moral hazard.'' While serving as an FOMC
member, Lindsey was the only person at the table paying a home mortgage,
and that perhaps makes him more sensitive to the moral hazard question.

Last Tuesday, as the financiers were being summoned for their meeting the
following night, Greenspan at the 11th hour accepted a long-pending Senate
Budget Committee invitation to testify the next day. In signaling that the
FOMC would cut the federal funds rate Tuesday, he made clear that inflation
was not that much to worry about when the fate of the high rollers in
Greenwich is at stake.

The following story illustrates today why it might be better to be in gold than in the paper markets.

A large two engined train was crossing America.
After they had gone
some distance one of the engines broke down. "No
problem," the engineer
thought, and carried on at half power.

Farther on down the line, the other engine broke
down, and the train
came to a standstill.

The engineer decided he should inform the
passengers about why the train had stopped,
and made the following announcement:

"Ladies and gentlemen, I have some good news and
some bad news. The bad news is that both engines
have failed, and we will bestuck here for some time.
The good news is that you decided to take the train and
not fly."

She's trying to be the "first lady"!!

Yep, Hillary's afraid to go to the bathroom ata night for fear someone will take her place. Oh yea, gold seems to be making its move. The countdown in Europe is starting. Up nearly a dollar/oz.

Make that up 40 cents instead of a dollar but it is moving.

despite the dollar up against all other currencies. We like that.

...gonna change it to "Sharon Peters"...oooops...sorry bart ..but I know you ( Bart ) are not reading this or you would have fixed the frames for me by now...

grin...

Up and down for the metals and stocks - S&P jumped back to being only down 10. May wish I was long stocks before the day is over, could be one of those now very poplular down openings rally to the close type of days - but I doubt it.......

South African golds ( for what it is worth ) are about unchanged - on their high of the day. AT 1097 a 20% rally in five days.

But what 's wrong with my HGMCY - not on for the ride.

I thought this was a "Bill and Hillary" site...

Sure would like to see the frames working...

This is it. Last day of the September of '98.

I look for this to be a big down day on the equity markets. If it is, there are going to be mor hedge funds looking at margin calls. Especially after placing their bets on the market responding positively to the Fed rate cut.

The really big thing to watch, though is the bond market. Right now it looks like bond prices shall hold. If, however, they too decline, we will be seeing financial problems big time.

Today is Wednesday. Monday the fifth of October could be a bleak day indeed. I read a book once entitled "October the First is Too Late".

Good export data skewed by gold moves
By Michael Dwyer
( 1 ) Gold imports into Australia soared from just $297 million in the first six months of 1997 to $1.5 billion in the first half of 1998.

a. Over the first six months of this year, Australia imported around $577 million worth of gold from South Korea and around $248 million from the members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations ( except Singapore ) .

b.gold exports to the US grew from just $10 million to $753 million, accounting for just over half the 50.2 per cent overall increase in total exports.

c.similar scenario emerges from an examination of Australia's trade with the European Union gold exports to the EU leapt from $11 million to $321 million over the same period. Gold exports to the EU accounted for around 25 per cent of the overall increase in exports from Australia from the first half of 1997 to the first half of 1998.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980929/news/news4.html

( 2 ) General Imports........Imports for Comsumption
Year|Quantity|Customs Value....Quantity|Customs Value
GOLD COMPOUNDS
( HS: 2843300000 ) ( SIC: 2819 )
Unit of Quantity -- Kilograms
1993|2,206|13,874,033.........2,206|13,874,033
1994|4,399|24,439,495.........4,399|24,439,495
1995|4,270|22,138,154.........4,270|22,138,154
1996|1,586|1,700,315..........1,586|1,700,315
1997|15,834|72,871,184........15,834|72,871,184

And this 'significant increase', according to ANZ, increased again in 1998. WHY?
http://govinfo.kerr.orst.edu/cgi-bin/imp-country?ron=Oth+Inorg+Chem,+Prec+and+Rare-Earth+Met+and+Radioact+Com&search=202526

( 3 ) "And this funny stuff going on in the gold industry has obviously impacted on Australia's export performance," he said.

FUNNY STUFF indeed! Available public information has stressed that US banks were not unduly effected by the Asian crisis, yes? Why then were large amounts of gold being imported to the US?
Unsettling too, is ANZ's attribution to the gold as "settlement" for debts. What is the 'game'?

Look at the official government import figures: an ENORMOUS increase from 1996 ( 1,586 kilograms ) to 1997 ( 15,834 kilograms ) . Now, one is willing to applaud the vibrant computer industry, but an astonishing number of the innards are made inAsia, so-unless Compaq was including a precursor of "The Gold Group's" lil gold coin in every Presario sold, this "consumption" happened in another industry...or something.

WHAT is going on here?

My platinum plans have not changed. I consider any price below $360 a gift. Tis a bumpy ride to be sure, but we are sitting on top of a decade long support line - it will rise from here. Rather than parrot the old farfel line of IDCIBM, I do indeedy care, and I am buying more. I like it.

Gold should limp around here for awhile, but the lows will be probed again this year. I still look for no significant rally prior to early 1999. Gold coin sales are through the roof and the calls keep coming in.

Silver is starting to look like it can hold above $5. I know there is metal to be had in London, but the COMEX stocks thingie should have been good for more of a rise than we have seen. I wonder why it has not risen so?

A first draft of my Precious Metals Review for the Monex site was posted last Friday, complete with typos, and sans silver info.. This has been corrected and the review can be found at:

http://www.MONEX.com/mt.html

For those who e-mail through the Monex site, I tend to get the messages quicker at the following address. rjd@pacbell.net

Righty O

Being the end of the quarter and Jewish holiday there could be a decent rally from these levels in the SnP taking the market back to the 1100 area where new shorts should be established. I got long this morning at 1042.50 stop 1040.50. There is a rare opportunity to turn little money into big money. I usually don't like options but here is a case when the cheap far out of the money options may work. This is money you are willing to throw out the window this trade either works or doesn''t work no middle ground. Buy the Oct oex puts 420, 430 for less then a $1. If this market follows the 1987 pattern leg c will be 1.618 of leg a on expiration or approximately 325. Do the oex, the spx expires a day earlier you may need that extra day.
Buy dec gold anytime it trades under 290.

It looks like US will creat enough $ to over come demand with these new presses.

September" verbage? I think I missed some posts explaining this.
TIA Fox-man

..

"And now comes the bad news. Some $10 trillion ( yes, $10,000,000,000,000 ) in derivative contracts mature this year for U.S. bankers, and the U.S. bankers are holding their collective breath to see which of their Asian clients will pay up. Many won't. 'Those who believe there won't be any further derivative losses from Asia couldn't be more mistaken,' says Edward Furash, a bank consultant based in Washington."
----
This risk is not yet priced into the market.

-EJ

Do you have the breakdown of that COMEX warehouse increase in terms of registerd vs eligible and adjustments?

They sometimes aren't consistent with their news bulletins. They
only gave the totals ( reported by FWN ) yesterday. Usually, they
report totals as well as individual metal breakouts.
I pay a small subscription fee for Newsalert.com cause it's nice
to get news bulletins quickly. They post news from FWN, Reuters,
API, etc. Some of these news bulletins are free. Others require
the subscription. Fox-man

" http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/he.html"

For instance-
Jan 1 1997, 1 USD = 115.900  and the Japanese paid 41,821.73  per ounce of gold.

Jan average was 1 USD = 117.5916  and gold cost them--on average--43,167.2  per ounce

However, on Sep 28, 1998-for example-

1 USD = 135.880  yet the Japanese could still purchase an ounce of gold at 39,982.7 


The CBs still have all the majors marching neatly to a common 3P POGalthough the reciprocals are getting VERY ragged. {:- )

before we go back to the bottom uptrend line at appox. 1030????

Please Switch to Short Text Mode viewing

Tom

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

myopic monetary policy is wearing thin.

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

FROM MOUNTAIN MEDIA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED OCT. 4, 1998
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Boiling the frog: Much will depend on the new 'electronic money'

EDITORS: A version of this feature first appeared in the October edition of Las Vegas Magazine.
An Internet press release ( how trendy ) from the folks at MasterCard
International, datelined "Purchase, N.Y., July 22, 1998," informs us:

"MasterCard International hosted today an online forum with thought
leaders from global business, government and research organizations to
discuss lifestyle changes that will occur as smart card technology gains
acceptance over the next five years.

"Representatives from IBM, Hitachi, British Telecommunications plc, the
U.S. federal government's General Services Administration, The Tower Group
and Emerge Online participated in the roundtable, which was moderated by
Richard Phillimore, Senior Vice President of MasterCard's Chip Card
Business unit.

" 'Five years from now, multi-application smart cards will be an
established technology in the payments business,' Phillimore said. 'As the
benefits of multi-application smart cards are proven in the marketplace,
the conversion from magnetic stripe to chip-based payment cards will be
very rapid. By the year 2010, we expect all of MasterCard's credit and
debit cards and terminals will be chip-based.'

"Smart cards will deliver increased consumer value and utility to today's
credit cards, Phillimore added. 'Chip technology will enable cardholders to
use their cards for many more purposes, such as electronic ticketing,
loyalty programs, and secure remote shopping -- a true Lifestyle Card that can be tailored to meet the unique needs and preferences of a single individual.' "

When mentioning those ominous-sounding "loyalty programs," I should point out, the online MasterCard gang are referring not to government loyalty oaths of the "am not now and never have been a member of the Communist Party" variety, but rather a system in which cardholders receive discounts for "loyally" shopping through one company -- the system probably familiar
to most consumers today via those "discount club cards" issued by your
supermarket, offering you 30 cents off a package of toilet paper if you let the teller scan your card at the checkout stand.

Of course, the store gets something back in return for that discount. In addition to the obvious hope that you'll keep going back to the store whose discount card you carry ( essentially, a surcharge is being applied to "hoppers" who show no store loyalty ) , the management can now easily track how many of its outlets you visit, and what you buy there.

The initial commercial applications may be innocent enough -- "Let's save postage by only sending coupons for this new brand of breakfast cereal to the home addresses of our shoppers who already buy the more expensive competitor." But you don't have to be the kind who walks stooped over to avoid the black helicopters to foresee the day when the government inspectors may arrive, asking to see the electronic profiles of all customers in a given geographic area who have used the fast-spreading cards to buy anything from home AIDS test kits to hydroponic "grow lights" to "High Times" magazine to pistol ammunition.

It's all stored in the computer, you know. And how long do you think Jack,
your friendly local produce manager, is really going to refuse to let the
FBI access his computer without a court order? About as long as it takes
them to ask for his Social Security number and threaten to call their
friends at the IRS, suggesting Jack may be in need of an immediate tax
audit?

The cheerful little MasterCard press release doesn't take long to broach
the subject of "expanded uses" for the new cards with their embedded memory
chips:

"The panel also addressed the use of smart cards for identification
purposes. Many agreed that identification was the 'killer application' that
would encourage adoption of smart card programs. Kotaro Yamashita, COO of
Financial Services at Hitachi, Ltd. said, 'We see identification
applications issued by governments as being big in many places outside of
Asia, for example Central America.' However, Marty Wagner, Associate
Administrator of the Office of Government wide Policy at the U.S. General
Services Administration ( GSA ) cautioned that 'National identity card
programs could run into trouble in the U.S. due to privacy concerns.' "


# # #

The process of accustoming Americans to carrying around cards which can be
used to buy anything from a candy car to a soda pop to a round-trip airline
ticket to London -- but whose embedded chips will also relay to corporate
and government snoops the social security number and other personal
information ( and resultant tax obligations ) of anyone making that purchase
-- is well underway.

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he
will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and
raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the
frog doze happily, triggering the soporific response he instinctively
displays when the sun shines on his lily pad ... In fact, the frog will
eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

Likewise, some mighty high-powered public relations types are figuring
ways to emphasize the convenience of "electronic cash" - and downplay the
effect it may have in removing any remaining privacy from the way you spend
your pay.

The goal? To cook the frog, without any ruckus.

Convenience, convenience, convenience, was the happy spin Time magazine
put on a new "single electronic card that may replace everything in your
wallet," in their issue of April 27, 1998. As the magazine was listing all
the bothersome stuff you now have to lug around - cash, ATM cards, credit
cards, proof of insurance - it made a not-so-subtle swipe at anyone who
would resist the happy consolidation of such burdens:

"Your ID cards. PRESENT: You lug various bits of your legal identity.
FUTURE: Non-conspiracists could consolidate pertinent info in one place."

Get that? If you don't want the government tax man to see your bank
balance and a record of how many times you've flown to Zurich or the Cayman
Islands, if you don't want the theater manager to see your alimony payments
or your concealed-carry handgun permit, if you don't want your boss to see
your prescription for post-cancer-surgery drugs, if you don't want EVERYONE
to gain a precise accounting of how much you spent last month at
Frederick's of Hollywood, or renting X-rated videos, or shacked up in a
motel room across town, or purchasing alcoholic beverages, or buying
vaginal contraceptive foam ( including which brand you prefer ) , why, you're
just some loony "conspiracist."

Also note that "could" ... as though we'll still have any choice.

But why worry? Digital cash will be great, argues Joshua Cooper Ramo in
the big "Future of Money" piece in the April 27 Time:

"Think about the $2,000 check you send to your daughter at college for
expenses. How is that money really spent? Books ... or beer? Electronic
cash takes that relatively simple transaction -- passing an allowance --
and makes it into a much more intelligent process. ...

"Your daughter can store the money any way she wants -- on her laptop, on
a debit card, even ( in the not too distant future ) on a chip implanted
under her skin. And, perhaps best of all, you can program the money to be
spent only in specific ways. You might instruct some of the digits to go
for books, some for food and some for movies. Unless you pass along a few
digits that can be cashed at the local pub, she'll have to find someone
else to buy the drinks."

Ha ha. Kind of cute, isn't it? But look again. Isn't the underlying theme
one of "control"? Try substituting a different scenario for Mr. Ramo's. How
about: "Think about the $1,000 Social Security check your agency sends a
retiree in Las Vegas. How is that money really spent? Food and lodging ...
or blackjack, roulette, and Margaritas?"

If the purpose of government retirement insurance is to make sure old
folks have food and a roof over their head, doesn't the government have an
OBLIGATION to "earmark" portions of those checks so they can only be used
to buy certain things, once the new e-cash technology gives them that
capability? Couldn't we set e-cards to freeze a recipient's account if she
tried to use any of the "money" to pay for a second prescription of pain
pills written by a doctor other than her ASSIGNED doctor, or to buy a
naughty book about how to evade taxes, or how to move money into offshore
accounts?

For that matter, what if your boss started earmarking parts of your
electronic paycheck for rent or groceries -- at certain stores that pay for
the consideration -- all "for your own good," you understand? After all,
the kind of soccer moms who elected Bill Clinton can be counted on to favor
almost ( start ital ) any ( end ital ) additional Big Brother controls over those
irresponsible men in their lives, frittering away their paychecks on bar
tabs, dirty magazines, power tools, and fancy chrome doo-dads for their
pickup trucks.


# # #

Donald S. McAlvany, editor of the economic and geopolitical newsletter
"The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor," is a fellow who has been looking into
the move toward trackable "electronic cash" for some time. The lead article
in the July, 1998 edition of his 16-page newsletter is headlined "Toward a
Cashless Society: Implementing an Electronic Currency in America," and
spells out a very different view of these developing trends from the one
embraced by the jovial publicists at Time:

"The global socialists who dominate America and most of the governments
of the western world today ( especially Western Europe ) have long had a goal
of moving the world away from the use of cash and into an electronic funds
currency system, wherein virtually all cash in use is 'electronic
currency,' " writes Mr. McAlvany. "If all financial transactions are forced
through an electronic banking system ... the ultimate 'people control'
system could be established. ..."

Citing George Orwell's classic novel "1984," Mr. McAlvany reminds us:
"Privacy is a major element of freedom, without which people and nations
cannot remain free. Today, we have dozens of privacy-destroying systems
being put in place by governments all over the world. They include video
camera surveillance in public places; electronic eavesdropping on
computers, phones and faxes; dozens of computerized files on each adult
American - compiled from credit card, banking, and tax records; physical
surveillance of homes, in whole areas via satellite, helicopters, and other
aircraft; the growing use of Social Security numbers to extract all kinds
of information on Americans from business, banking, and government data
cases; photo IDs required at airports; and the push by the Clinton
Administration for a computerized ( smart card ) national identification card
for all U.S. citizens.

"But the greatest privacy-destroying system of all, one which would have
made Big Brother's, Adolf Hitler's, Mao's, Lenin's or Stalin's mouths water
is the elimination of cash and the forcing of all citizens into the
computerized banking system for ( start ital ) all ( end ital ) transactions.
Ultimately these transactions can be monitored, recorded, profiled, and
used in 'people control.' If all of your personal transactions can be so
tracked, a socialist government bent on identifying, profiling and
controlling its 'politically incorrect' citizens or 'religious fanatics' or
Bible-believing Christians; gun owners; critics of the government; non-tax
compliers, can easily scrutinize and build a profile on such individuals.
It can also, in the absence of a cash-spending alternative, deny the
privilege to buy and sell to those who are politically or religiously
incorrect."

Since one of the main problems banks may have during the anticipated
computer crisis brought about by the turning of the century is clearing
checks written on other banks -- banks whose computers may not agree with
the home bank's "fix" for the transition from year date 99 to year date 00
-- Mr. McAlvany suggests that crisis might present a perfect opportunity to
effectively require bank customers to change over from paper checks to
"electronic cash."

"Remember that during the financial crisis of the 1930s, when Franklin
Roosevelt presented the American people with the alternative of a bank
holiday/gold confiscation/Draconian financial controls ( start ital ) or ( end
ital ) financial destruction, they willingly chose the former and gave up a
major portion of their financial freedom."


# # #

The removal of cash, of course, will be advertised as having many
benefits. Since drug dealers buy and sell their product with suitcases full
of hundred-dollar bills, it will be alleged that the switch will end the
drug trade ( as though a multi-billion-dollar industry won't promptly hire
both fancy accountants and computer geniuses to figure out how to "go
electronic" without throwing blips on the IRS radar screens -- or as though
they won't just add newly "illegal" hundred-dollar bills to the list of
contraband they now freely move outside official channels. )

Expect a public relations campaign to expose the "health hazard" of all
those dirty pennies and nickels you have lying around the house. Passed
from hand to hand among AIDS patients and tuberculosis-ridden junkies, how
can you let your children handle such stuff? Instead, buy Sean and Alysson
a new pair of color-coordinated, his-and-hers Kiddie Smart Cards, which
neatly deduct exactly $1.77 from their accounts when they buy lunch at
school, without burdening them down with filthy, wasteful, inconvenient
( and expensive to produce ) coins ... coins they might otherwise save up,
after all, to buy dirty magazines, or reefer, or who knows what else?

Yep, it's all for your health, safety, and convenience. And why would
anyone object ... unless, of course, they had something to ( start
ital ) hide ( end ital ) . What was your name again? And could I have your
18-digit bank tracking number, please? You ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) in
this country legally, aren't you? Not some kind of a federal
fugitive/deadbeat dad? There, that's better. See how easy things are when
you cooperate? Just slide your card through the security/debit slot. Now
pass your wrist over the scanner to make sure your embedded personal chip
has the matching security code. Thank you; you may now move along. We know
you have a choice when you dine out; thank you for patronizing Burger
World.


# # #

A full transcript of the "smart card online forum" session referred to at
the beginning of this essay, as well as a biography and smart card white
paper from each chat participant, can be accessed at
http://www.golinharris.com/mastercard.

Subscriptions to The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor ( "in no way involved in
the tax resistance, militia, or sovereign citizens movements in the U.S." )
run a substantial $115 per year. Send subscription info to P.O. Box 84904,
Phoenix, Ariz. 85071, or telephone 800-528-0559.


Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. Vin's
twice-weekly newspaper column, "The Libertarian," is syndicated in the
United States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422,
Las Vegas Nev. 89127. Watch for Vin's book, "Send in the Waco Killers,"
coming from Huntington Press in early 1999.

Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

Stop! Stop! Sheck, please stop.

Stop! Stop! Shek, please stop.

After it's early drop, the market is floating down about forty or fifty. Not too bad.

Sorry for multiple posts.

Sales of new homes drop in August

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Sales of new homes fell for a second month in a row during August after peaking in June, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, showing a once booming housing sector was starting to slow as the supply of homes for sale climbed to the highest in more than a year.

Total sales declined 4.4 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 838,000 - well below Wall Street economists' forecasts for an 882,000-unit rate -- from a revised 877,000 in July. Previously, the department said July sales were at a stronger annual rate of 886,000 but it revised that down.
-----
Another surprise. Still the DOW is holding up pretty well.
-EJ

Today's Golden lawyer joke from Reify's archives. ( Supposedly this is from an actual cross examination of a doctor, by a lawyer, in court. ) :- )
Q: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a
pulse?
A: No.
Q: Did you check for blood pressure?
A: No.
Q: Did you check for breathing?
A: No.
Q: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive
when you began the autopsy?
A: No.
Q: How can you be so sure, Doctor?
A: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar.
Q: But could the patient have still been alive nevertheless?
A: It is possible that he could have been alive and practicing
law somewhere.

with paper this morn.
DOW - 8000
XAU - 71.7

Ouch, man; its hard to practice law from inside a bottle.

My appologies to everyone for multiple posts.

is up today so far, while DROOY and HGMCY down a little. Signs of life?

Dow 7990.15 -90.37 ( -1.12% )

The PPT is trying.

is no possible way to forgive Clinton...none...nada...zip...zero...I am donating money to help get rid of him...

COMMUNISTS, TRADE UNIONS FORM ALLIANCE?
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 29 September that top Communist Party officials finally agreed to cede leadership of the national day of protest on 7 October to the Federation of Independent Trade Unions.

The Communists also agreed to follow the union's wishes on a number of other issues, including support for a law raising the official minimum wage.

The newspaper concluded that only time will tell whether Russia has witnessed the formation of a "mighty new opposition alliance."
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" receives financial backing from Boris Berezovskii's LogoVAZ group.

On 30 September, Communist Party activists, members of some trade unions, as well as scientists and teachers are planning to hold a protest action and block several major highways to Moscow for one hour beginning at mid-day, local time.

The protesters are demanding the resignation of President Boris Yeltsin. JAC


DUBININ AT CENTER OF NEW SCANDAL
Despite having resigned on 7 September, former Central Bank chairman Sergei Dubinin is still finding himself a target of critical press coverage.

Investigative journalist Yurii Shchekochikhin, writing in "Novaya gazeta" on 29 September, reported that Dubinin's annual salary as bank chair was equal to $240,000 at last year's exchange rate-- "equivalent to the budget for five prominent Moscow high schools or 12 villages."

According to "Moscow Times," such a wage is only half of what the governor of the Bank of England earns but is almost twice what US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan earns.

Perhaps more troubling than Dubinin's high salary, a banking analyst pointed out, is the information that bank deputies accepted seats on the boards of commercial banks, which the Central Bank in theory regulates.

"Novaya gazeta" is reportedly financed by Vladimir Gusinskii's Media-Most group, while the "Moscow Times" is owned by Independent Media, a company controlled by Menatep. JAC

http://talkusa.com/

September 30, 1998

IMF recommends lower interest rates in much of world

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The IMF, worried about a steep slowdown in the world economy, said Wednesday it is recommending lower interest rates to countries making up 90 percent of world gross domestic product.

IMF Chief Economist Micheal Mussa told a news conference that economic policymakers needed to be aware of the risks of global recession, although the world had "not quite reached" the threshold of such a slowdown -- which he defined as a period when world growth was less than one percent.

September 30, 1998

IMF waits for Russian economic program

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia's economic policies, due to be presented to the Cabinet on Thursday, remain a mystery to the International Monetary Fund, which is unlikely to give credits soon just to provide some breathing space.

The Russians are expected to be represented in Washington by Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov, Economy Minister Andrei Shapovalyants and Central Bank Chairman Viktor Gerashchenko.

Gerashchenko, known as "Hercules" in the Russian banking community, was head of the central bank in the early 1990s.

http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/RUSSIA-IMF.html

September 30, 1998

U.K.'s Brown calls for permanent global regulator

OTTAWA, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown on Wednesday called for the formation of a new global regulatory watchdog to deal with and prevent international financial crises.

"We must urgently examine the scope for a new and permanent Standing Committee For Global Financial Regulation," Brown told a meeting of finance ministers of the 54-country Commonwealth group.

Brown, who has been a vocal advocate of reform of the world's financial architecture, said the new committee should bring together the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Basle-based Bank for International Settlements and other regulatory groupings, on a regular, perhaps monthly, basis.

"It would be charged with developing and implementing a mechanism to ensure that the 'rules of the game' - the necessary international standards for financial regulation and supervision - are put in place," Brown said.

He said the committee could "also play an important role in strengthening the incentives of the private sector to improve its risk assessment."

"We also need to consider strengthening prudential regulation in both emerging and industrializing countries, and particularly for cross-border activities," Brown said.

He also said he did not believe that a permanent retreat to capital controls as an alternative to reform, was the answer.

"Doing so simply damages the prospects of stability and growth. I continue to favor an approach to capital account liberalization which is bold in concept but cautious in implementation."

Things are getting a little boring. I think I'll go downstairs and yank a few levers. I'll be right back.

The WSJ published a copy of an offer to LTCM by Buffett+AIG+Goldman for
$250M and operating control. This group believed it had the financial
firepower to unwind the various positions successfully. Unfortunately,AG's buddies needed to recoup some capital so AG put the squeeze on the brokers. The possible positive is that LTCM has been stabilized enough for its postions to be unwound.

IMF sees pain, some gain from Asia's one-time tigers

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund on
Wednesday forecast steep falls in output in Thailand, Indonesia and
South Korea this year, but said there was a good chance of a
turnaround starting next year.

Full Story


IMF sees Russia tumbling back to recession

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund on
Wednesday predicted a sharp decline in Russian output this year and
next and said future lending would hinge on a strong program of tax
collection and bank reform.

Full Story


Japan recovery slow to take hold - IMF

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Japan's recession-hit economy should
edge back to growth in 1999, but the recovery will not pick up pace
until the government does more to spur demand and fix its banking
mess, the IMF said Wednesday.

Full Story


IMF sees soft landing in U.S., no recession

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Global financial turmoil will prompt the
U.S. economy to slow markedly but there is no danger of a recession,
the International Monetary Fund said in a closely watched report
published on Wednesday.

Full Story


IMF sees Latam risk of prolonged capital drought

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund
warned Wednesday that the current panic among investors may not
subside soon and capital flows to Latin American and other emerging
markets may suffer a prolonged disruption.

Full Story
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/home.html

Has the PPT run out of cash.

All:

Although in the past I have been taken to task by the resident forum mind-control supervisors for reposting without their authorization the writings of banned posters, the following might be of interest to some of us more "uncontrollable" anarchists:


Date: Wed Sep 30 1998 03:53
farfel ( Disunity amongst Hedge Funds will send gold soaring... ) ID#341227:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Where gold is concerned, the bad news is that LTC, in concert with its major lending banks, is attempting to close its various losing positions in a nice orderly fashion. Since it appears LTC has a dangerous short position in gold, then naturally it will attempt a very nice closure of this position in cooperation with the Fed. Something that does NOT rock the market.

The good news for gold...there appear to be several hedge funds in trouble now, Converse being the most recent to "out" itself. Since many of these hedge funds have different sources of financing with different agendas and financial policies, then one would expect an "every man for himself" reaction to break forth at any moment.

The first hedge fund that panics and desperately begins closing out its gold short position will be the trigger. Anybody who doubts that this will happen simply has no knowledge of basic human nature. Nice gentlemanly meetings with dignified gents from the Fed, Chase, and Goldman are all very nice....but in the real world, expect that some "ungentlemanly" hedge fund jumps from the Titanic into a lifeboat WITHOUT permission from the establishment consensus.

When this happens, then BOOOM! The panic begins at full throttle and gold skyrockets.

Thanks.

F*

Anarchist's Note and Standard Disclaimer:
Reposting of the above is not meant to imply approval of nor agreement with the views expressed therein and should not be taken as investment advice. Investment decisions are left solely to the discretion of the individual investor. This repost is not intended to be a subversive act. Any attempt by mind-control supervisors to intimidate and/or discredit the perpetrator of this repost will be vigorously resisted!

Now that's more like it. I was starting to fall asleep.
-EJ

Best rallies in gold are ones that come in afternnoon; the ones in morning seem to fizzle.
Gold price holding up well, and XAU creeping back. Who knows, maybe we'll get that afternoon rally.

Highhopes

Bought some more coins today.
From my dealer ( on the phone ) :
1998 ( up to now ) : 1.2 million ounces sold as coins ( American Eagles )
1997: 750,000
1996: 250,000 ( ! )
1991-1996: less than 500,000 per year
Top year: 1987... 1.5 million that year, one year after the beginning of American Eagle... and we know what 1987 brought to the stock market. Then, inflation was a problem... not now... what gives? ( we know at kitco! )
Good luck
FHG

I have been working on Y2K issues for over a year
now and I planning to move to Australia thinking it is safer there.

Having lived through the Iraqi occupation, gulf-war and the liberation
of Kuwait, I have first hand information of a population panic.
Infact, each time uncle Sadam makes a statement, we experience
turbulence in our daily lives. From my experience, I think the people
in Australia will behave in a much more civilized manner. Y2K is a
problem in Kuwait and it is a strong belief that the Americans will be
there for the rescue should the systems break down. On the other hand
there are those statements stating the we are compliant, we have new
systems, we have everyting under control. Time will tell!!

Y2K is a global problem. It will be finale to the already affected
world economy. It appears as though there are too many problems
already distracting the requirement of work in this field.

Systems Engineer
Kuwait University
------------------------------------
Interesting to think that they feel that the good old USA will save them.
Possible before the event.
Improbable after the event.

Could there be no oil?

DOW a little lower 7900 ( -180 ) 2.2%
XAU where it started around 73.5

stoped and reversed at 1043.50, looking to reverse again between 1023 - 1018. If this area is taken out the next C leg down could be under way.

No problem. Now if it gets a little too drafty let me know and I'll set the DOW dive lever back in place.

From the Treasury department, public debt outstanding end of
fiscal year '98: $5.524T
'97: $5.413T
-----
-$111B

I think we have a surplus of disinformation and not the
first since 1969.

Good to have our leader back!!!, uhHuH.........now get back to cussin'!! yeeeeehaaaaa! un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!...as always.

Yesterday was a day of major disappointment in the action of the XAU as the trading on the prior day had exhibited a pattern that indicated strong accumulation. In fact, after the news of the Fed's reduction in interest rates, the XAU seemed to collapse as traders headed for the exits. If, in fact, a move upwards is coming in the near term, it should unfold shortly or we will be subject to the same sort of tax loss selling that we saw late last year.

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/1998/dom/980525/asias_crisis.the_banks_n8.html

That's an old Wall Street aphorism, isn't it? May explain the action
in gold and XAU yesterday.

Dam about to burst....cut 'n run cowboys...the time is NIGH!

I don't see why we should not enact greater regulation of these secretive funds. The Federal Reserve boasts that no public monies were used but the fact remains that the banking sector, which is regulated, put the banking system at risk through exposure to this kind of leveredge.

If one of these funds did fail and caused a credit crisis, the government, i.e. the taxpayer, would have to pony up the money to insure depostors assets.

When are people going to realize that these bad and risky loans are actually their deposits being lost. Oh yes, federal deposit insurance. Greatest moral hazard ever created. Bank runs may have been destablizing in the short run but they were the market ensuring the proper risk premium on money.

It is funny listening to Greenspan or Rubin talk about the free flows of capital in the global marketplace as outflows crush the third world yet keep insuring the internal U.S. banking system operates at below optimal asset allocation.

they're smoked. and we be toast.

Stocks Fall on Last Day of Worst Quarter in Eight Years; Lucent Tumbles
U.S. shares fell on the last day of the worst quarter in eight years. Lucent Technologies Inc. and other telecommunications-equipment makers led the decline, on concern that economic slowdowns abroad will prompt phone companies to cut spending.
More...
Bloomberg
-----
Ok, now it's obvious that the global slowdown is hitting secondary markets with capital expense cutbacks. Companies that do not do significant business overseas are getting hit by cutbacks in purchases by companies that do.

Next, the services industry gets whacked. Recall that in the 1930s, the drop in commodities demand hit the large part of the population employed in commodity-dependent businesses. This time around, workers employed in secondary services industries that are dependent on manufacturing will provide the leverage to cause unemployment to rise rapidly.
-EJ

Sharefin.....the figures I mentioned earlier are given below.

Weekly Gold 3-Month Lease Rates. Jan 1995 - Sep 1998 ( Showing, for each week, the highest daily close [ =High ], the lowest daily close [ =Low ] and the Friday close [ = Close ]

( All figures are percentages x 100 )

1995

Date--|-Jan-----------------------|-Feb----------------------|-Mar----------------------------|

High--|-107-|-113-|-110-|-138-|-138-|-132-|-126-|-128-|-191-|-173-|-171-|-199-|-174-|

Low--|-101-|-094-|-096-|-105-|-131-|-121-|-119-|-125-|-138-|-158-|-165-|-173-|-156-|

Close-|-103-|-106-|-100-|-128-|-131-|-121-|-126-|-134-|-166-|-161-|-168-|-175-|-156-|

1995

Date--|-Apr----------------------|-May----------------------------|-Jun----------------------|

High--|-153-|-117-|-098-|-110-|-105-|-112-|-113-|-108-|-101-|-091-|-088-|-098-|-124-|

Low--|-128-|-099-|-096-|-102-|-100-|-100-|-109-|-101-|-088-|-087-|-084-|-086-|-110-|

Close-|-128-|-099-|-098-|-103-|-102-|-112-|-110-|-103-|-088-|-085-|-087-|-104-|-119-|

1995

Date--|-Jul-----------------------|-Aug-----------------------------|-Sep----------------------|

High--|-135-|-132-|-124-|-142-|-166-|-162-|-158-|-154-|-158-|-167-|-160-|-154-|-195-|

Low--|-116-|-109-|-113-|-122-|-134-|-146-|-152-|-149-|-154-|-158-|-150-|-150-|-167-|

Close-|-134-|-109-|-117-|-133-|-166-|-147-|-154-|-150-|-158-|-163-|-150-|-154-|-195-|

1995

Date--|-Oct----------------------|-Nov----------------------------|-Dec----------------------|

High--|-198-|-203-|-239-|-244-|-242-|-320-|-362-|-373-|-558-|-365-|-311-|-352-|-319-|

Low--|-189-|-197-|-209-|-239-|-233-|-237-|-247-|-314-|-418-|-290-|-294-|-312-|-263-|

Close-|-198-|-193-|-239-|-244-|-237-|-320-|-362-|-373-|-424-|-294-|-311-|-312-|-263-|

1996

Date--|-Jan------------------------------|-Feb----------------------|-Mar----------------------|

High--|-279-|-292-|-358-|-272-|-242-|-213-|-160-|-149-|-151-|-151-|-146-|-158-|-169-|

Low--|-253-|-271-|-278-|-235-|-229-|-156-|-115-|-113-|-118-|-115-|-130-|-141-|-148-|

Close-|-279-|-292-|-278-|-235-|-229-|-158-|-115-|-149-|-118-|-142-|-146-|-149-|-152-|

1996

Date--|-Apr----------------------|-May----------------------------|-Jun----------------------|

High--|-161-|-166-|-170-|-156-|-146-|-122-|-124-|-105-|-101-|-127-|-129-|-133-|-140-|

Low--|-153-|-163-|-160-|-147-|-134-|-110-|-100-|-103-|-098-|-093-|-119-|-125-|-129-|

Close-|-161-|-163-|-160-|-147-|-134-|-114-|-100-|-103-|-098-|-127-|-124-|-131-|-141-|

1996

Date--|-Jul------------------------------|-Aug----------------------|-Sep----------------------|

High--|-162-|-158-|-150-|-124-|-131-|-116-|-125-|-125-|-117-|-138-|-179-|-172-|-164-|

Low--|-151-|-150-|-127-|-113-|-120-|-112-|-107-|-110-|-111-|-118-|-135-|-153-|-153-|

Close-|-151-|-150-|-127-|-123-|-120-|-112-|-123-|-110-|-117-|-138-|-179-|-155-|-162-|

1996

Date--|-Oct-----------------------------|-Nov----------------------|-Dec---------------------|

High--|-241-|-213-|-201-|-201-|-259-|-267-|-247-|-248-|-282-|-282-|-258-|-250-|-179-|

Low--|-208-|-180-|-192-|-196-|-205-|-244-|-230-|-235-|-263-|-244-|-226-|-179-|-154-|

Close-|-220-|-183-|-199-|-198-|-258-|-244-|-230-|-245-|-274-|-244-|-226-|-179-|-154-|

1997

Date--|-Jan------------------------------|-Feb----------------------|-Mar----------------------|

High--|-175-|-216-|-175-|-175-|-200-|-191-|-182-|-160-|-166-|-158-|-158-|-143-|-140-|

Low--|-148-|-187-|-158-|-164-|-155-|-170-|-160-|-152-|-155-|-150-|-122-|-119-|-134-|

Close-|-175-|-187-|-174-|-165-|-195-|-170-|-160-|-160-|-155-|-155-|-122-|-143-|-134-|

1997

Date--|-Apr-----------------------------|-May---------------------|-Jun----------------------|

High--|-135-|-130-|-136-|-132-|-117-|-110-|-100-|-100-|-100-|-173-|-172-|-141-|-139-|

Low--|-125-|-124-|-125-|-119-|-110-|-100-|-094-|-095-|-100-|-112-|-145-|-121-|-124-|

Close-|-125-|-130-|-135-|-119-|-112-|-100-|-094-|-099-|-100-|-166-|-145-|-122-|-139-|

1997

Date--|-Jul------------------------------|-Aug----------------------|-Sep----------------------|

High--|-200-|-235-|-241-|-231-|-230-|-206-|-244-|-251-|-241-|-228-|-279-|-348-|-253-|

Low--|-147-|-193-|-223-|-219-|-178-|-183-|-211-|-239-|-224-|-221-|-235-|-269-|-205-|

Close-|-189-|-235-|-223-|-231-|-178-|-206-|-244-|-239-|-228-|-227-|-279-|-269-|-246-|

1997

Date--|-Oct-----------------------------|-Nov----------------------|-Dec----------------------------|

High--|-302-|-339-|-337-|-319-|-362-|-309-|-265-|-245-|-229-|-216-|-179-|-180-|-191-|-195-|

Low--|-249-|-299-|-315-|-282-|-305-|-232-|-225-|-208-|-201-|-192-|-163-|-169-|-182-|-185-|

Close-|-302-|-339-|-337-|-307-|-305-|-232-|-225-|-208-|-201-|-181-|-163-|-178-|-191-|-185-|

1998

Date--|-Jan-----------------------|-Feb----------------------|-Mar----------------------|

High--|-181-|-195-|-210-|-189-|-187-|-185-|-171-|-260-|-245-|-226-|-200-|-197-|

Low--|-172-|-178-|-187-|-185-|-185-|-168-|-158-|-176-|-194-|-200-|-193-|-181-|

Close-|-173-|-169-|-187-|-185-|-185-|-168-|-158-|-216-|-245-|-200-|-200-|-181-|

1998

Date--|-Apr-----------------------------|-May---------------------|-Jun----------------------|

High--|-173-|-160-|-162-|-154-|-139-|-155-|-150-|-142-|-147-|-142-|-159-|-160-|-145-|

Low--|-164-|-150-|-151-|-135-|-130-|-145-|-141-|-134-|-133-|-134-|-141-|-141-|-140-|

Close-|-164-|-150-|-157-|-135-|-137-|-155-|-141-|-134-|-138-|-140-|-159-|-141-|-145-|

1998

Date--|-Jul------------------------------|-Aug----------------------|-Sep----------------------|

High--|-149-|-148-|-127-|-117-|-123-|-124-|-109-|-103-|-085-|-089-|-084-|-084-|-150-|

Low--|-145-|-139-|-116-|-108-|-109-|-111-|-100-|-085-|-070-|-071-|-076-|-077-|-084-|

Close-|-149-|-139-|-118-|-108-|-123-|-111-|-100-|-085-|-077-|-086-|-076-|-084-|-150-|

With apologies for the delay, but Kitco access has been unusually slow today.

Regards..........Dabchick

Peter Lynch is probably stuck doing those idiotic commercials
for Fidelity 'cause he got toasted on da'ribatives

Dow 7894.63 -185.89 ( -2.30% )

The double post was worth reading twice. I am starting an internet pattern recognition company. It will read profiles to predict future behavior. For managing the slaves???

I think not. Knowledge and technology are demassifying. That is, technology will erode the center not reinforce it. We might not be able to see how, but it will happen. Imagine if such technology were under leaderless control.... available to anyone... decentralized like PCs...

Mexico-- http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^MXX&d=1d Brazil--
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^BVSP&d=1d

Up .90

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=1d

I went to a garden party -- thought I would play some old songs-- and up Jumped Johnny B. Good playing a guitar like ringing a bell-- and I decided you can't please everybody so you might as well please yourself.

Look out shorts! Go Gold!

he sure seems like a nice fellow, fit, smart no doubt........except the toaster brings out the very worst in every toastee. what's dat' smell???????? shooooooooweeeeeee!!

G&P to YA!!! GO GOLD!!! ( which is exactly what it's doin'! )

All with Golden tickets please board NOW.

Where are we goin' to spend all this money we're fixin' to make? chirp, chirp.......is dat' chickens I hear? thought they we're never goin' to hatch.........! trailer for sale or rent........

I bought a put leap ( Dec 99 ) a few hours ago and made more than 10% on it after I came back from lunch. Not bad.
I had similar good luck with S&P100 puts which I bought when the DOW was at about $9,200 and sold when the DOW was at $7,700 a few weeks ago.
I start liking to ride the roller coaster down, down, up...down, down up...and so on until we reach DOW 5,000. let's see.

gotta' go back to studio7. Ya'll keep the pressure up on those stooooooooopid shorts! this should be real fun to watch.

I would like to add to this mornings 00:44 post where I wrote:

The Canadian Govt could say tomorrow, from now on we abolish all taxes. The Govt would get its money from the central bank just as it does now. Since the Govt isn't borrowing anything tangible, the loan doesn't have to be repaid.

What would happen is without the taxes, people would see that Govt spending/borrowing just inflates the money supply. People wouldn't want to hold C$'s under these circumstances because they see that it's constantly losing purchasing power. So then people would turn to tangibles ( like in Brazil ) or a stronger currency like Gold ( or a currency of a nation who taxes much of the currency out of circulation ) .

Again this No-tax scenario would lead to hyperinflation, and people would run from the currency.
=============================
I add, there is no valid reason why a govt submits itself to usury and absolutely no need for Govt debt under these circumstances. The fact that Govts like US & Canada pays 100's of Billions of interest to these international bankers who have been given exclusive license to issue dollars is likely the worst injustice known to man, as its System leads to the denegration and degradation of man and of civilization. Without usury there would not need to be heavy taxation nor inflation or any sort.

Wednesday September 30, 1:36 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Bankers Trust hedge fund exposure collateralized

NEW YORK, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Bankers Trust Corp. has fully collateralized its loans to hedge funds, mostly in
cash and U.S. Treasuries, a source familiar with the firm's finances said on Wednesday.

The bank's stock earlier Wednesday hit a new 52-week low of 53, down, 7-13/16, on fears the firm would post losses on loans extended to hedge funds, or
funds for wealthy investors that use borrowed money to trade a variety of financial instruments. Investors have become increasingly wary of banks and
brokers' exposure to these types of funds after Long Term Capital Management of Greenwich, Conn., lost around $4 billion on ill-timed bets on global bond
and stock markets.

The largest U.S. bank, Chase Manhattan Corp. ( NYSE:CMB - news ) , on Tuesday told analysts its outstanding loans to hedge funds totaled $3.2 billion, of
which 72 percent is backed by cash and U.S. Treasuries. Chase and Bankers Trust are among 11 firms that have put up $300 million apiece to prevent Long
Term Capital from going under.

``The exposure ( of Bankers Trust ) is nowhere near what has been announced by Chase,'' the Bankers Trust source said, declining to outline the investment
bank's exact exposure.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/0h.html

Wednesday September 30, 1:17 pm Eastern Time

U.S. Treasuries at day's high in early afternoon

*U.S. Treasuries up sharply on Dow, foreign stocks selloff. *Dow off 2.22 pct. Talk of hedge fund, US bank
woes weighs too *30-yr bond yield retests 4.99-pct record low, minor hurdle. *Mortgage refi index up sharply
also, said helping mid curve. *Mkt wary of Greenspan's hedge funds testimony on Thursday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/zs.html

Steve Roach now projecting 4.5%% long bond yield and another 100 basis points drop in the funds rate by early 1999. But says Fed may tighten aggressively when and if this global crisis eases.

http://www.ms.com/GEF/index.html

Very little discussion here of perhaps the single biggest influence on POG -- REAL INTEREST RATES. Although nominal rates are quite low today, real rates adjusted for inflation still are much higher than in the 1970s. As real rates come down, the gold bull will accelerate.

``The market is heading down. I'm afraid of this market and I think other people are too. If you feel safe you should get out and take a holiday,'' a dealer said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/0k.html

It was under the guise of regulation that we have this impending banking
disaster hanging over our heads. Bank runs were engineered in order
to create public support for a ( private ) central bank. Without consent or compensation, the American taxpayer has written puts on the entire banking system through the FDIC.

Believe me, when the system colapses there will be cries for more regulation by the people who created the problem. This time all you will
have to do is trade your freedom for a new promise.

What we need, but will never get is total de-regulation of the banking
system. Then you and I could scrutinize the banks we trust with our business with just like a stock before purchase. Too bad this is just
a "pie in the sky" dream. It will never happen.

Get Gold !!!!

Goldman going down...sharks circling the wounded.

CoolJing,
I believe that Lynch is doing those horky commercials because he needs the money. As the worm turns.....
MofromTo

CoolJing,
I believe that Lynch is doing those horky commercials because he needs the money. As the worm turns.....
MofromTo

I'm starting to get bored again. Back to the levers.

You'll love the way performance improves.

The NYSE will halt trading for one hour if the Dow fell 900 points before 2 p.m., and for 30 minutes if the drop occurred before 2:30 p.m. The circuit breakers would not be triggered if the 900 point decline occurred in the last 90 minutes of trading.

The NYSE will halt trading for 2 hours if the index lost 1750 points before 1 p.m. Trading would be halted for one hour if the DJIA fell 1750 points before 2 p.m. Trading would be haltedthe rest of the day if the DJIA lost 1750 points between 2 and 4 p.m.

If the DOW lost 2650 points any time during the day, trading is finished for that day.

Complements of Bryan Poe at Prudent Bear.

-EJ

Hey! I just discovered these are musical levers.

I think I'll play a little of "Remember,remember the depths of September".

I'll have a look at your data tomorrow.

Here's an example of some charts I did a few months back on the rates.
I used all the series to plot the charts.

I haven't updated my data for a long while as Kitco wasn't supplying it.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Lease.htm

Good export data skewed by gold moves
By Michael Dwyer
( 1 ) Gold imports into Australia soared from just $297 million in the first six months of 1997 to $1.5 billion in the first half of 1998.

a. Over the first six months of this year, Australia imported around $577 million worth of gold from South Korea and around $248 million from the members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations ( except Singapore ) .

b. Gold exports to the US grew from just $10 million to $753 million, accounting for just over half the 50.2 per cent overall increase in total exports.

c. Similar scenario emerges from an examination of Australia's trade with the European Union gold exports to the EU leapt from $11 million to $321 million over the same period. Gold exports to the EU accounted for around 25 per cent of the overall increase in exports from Australia from the first half of 1997 to the first half of 1998.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980929/news/news4.html

( 2 ) General Imports---------------------Imports for Comsumption
Year--Quantity-----Customs Value------Quantity------Customs Value
GOLD COMPOUNDS
( HS: 2843300000 ) ( SIC: 2819 )
Unit of Quantity -- Kilograms
1993---2,206-------13,874,033...........2,206--------13,874,033
1994---4,399-------24,439,495...........4,399--------24,439,495
1995---4,270-------22,138,154...........4,270--------22,138,154
1996---1,586--------1,700,315...........1,586---------1,700,315
1997---15,834------72,871,184..........15,834--------72,871,184
http://govinfo.kerr.orst.edu/cgi-bin/imp-country?ron=Oth+Inorg+Chem,+Prec+and+Rare-Earth+Met+and+Radioact+Com&search=202526

- - - U. S. I m p o r t s o f M e r c h a n d i s e - - -
SILVER IMPORTS doubled.

UNWROUGHT SILVER, NESOI
( HS: 7106915000 ) ( SIC: 3339 )
Unit of Quantity -- Gram
1993---17,515,096------2,781,605.....17,515,096-----2,781,605
1994---8,182,889-------1,468,342......8,182,889-----1,468,342
1995--43,506,440-------7,237,685.....43,506,440-----7,237,685
1996--32,542,772-------5,377,492.....32,542,772-----5,377,492
1997--62,462,363------10,579,251.....62,462,363----10,579,251

GOLD BULLION NT UNDR 99.95 P GOLD NONMTRY: GOLD CT
( HS: 7108121013 ) ( SIC: 3339 )
Unit of Quantity -- Gram
1993--94,499,970----1,091,107,317.....94,499,970--1,091,107,317
1994--68,964,750------849,610,783.....68,964,750----849,610,783
1995--77,441,057------958,332,725.....77,441,057----958,332,725
1996-106,010,585----1,323,036,938....106,010,585--1,323,036,938
1997-168,789,918----1,850,547,639....168,789,918--1,850,547,639
http://govinfo.kerr.orst.edu/cgi-bin/imp-country?commod=Nat+Etc+Pearls,+Prec+Etc+Stones,+Pr+Met+Etc,+Coin&search=202526

( 4 ) "And this funny stuff going on in the gold industry has obviously impacted on Australia's export performance," he said.

FUNNY STUFF indeed! Available public information has stressed that US banks were not unduly effected by the Asian crisis, yes? Why then were large amounts of gold being imported to the US?
Unsettling too, is ANZ's attribution to the gold as "settlement" for debts. What is the 'game'?

Look at the official government import figures: an ENORMOUS increase from 1996 ( 1,586 kilograms ) to 1997 ( 15,834 kilograms ) . Now, one is willing to applaud the vibrant computer industry, but an astonishing number of the innards are made inAsia, so-unless Compaq was including a precursor of "The Gold Group's" lil gold coin in every Presario sold, this "consumption" happened in another industry...or something.

Silver imports almost doubled. Gold bullion NOT UNDER 99.95 [nonmonetary] came close to doubling between 1994 and 1997.

SOMEBODY SURE LIKES GOLD! And note that 1994 price ( $849,610,783 for 68,964,750 grams ) makes the 1997 price ( $1,850,547,639 for 168,789,918 grams ) A VERY GOOD PURCHASE INDEED

S O M E P R I V A T E S O M E B O D Y is taking advantage of inside knowledge re: CBs containment for Euro run-up?

WHAT is going on here?

What do thinks going on...US Gubermt and its friends!

Tom

What do think is going on...US Gubermt and its friends! Same reason you got a small rate reduction..."they" really do know what they are doing.

Tom

According to an article in the Mining Review in the year 1000 BC there were app. 12 ounces of gold per every person alive.
During the last 200 years there was 1 ounce per every person alive.
Today there is 1/2 ounce of gold per every person. The author states that the price of gold must skyrocket in order to restore the ratio of the last 200 years.

Hi All,
interesting little article I found in todays Financial Post under Insider Trading :
Pan American Silver Corp._____William Fleckenstein,insider, bought 311,100 shares for $ 5.33 to S 5.68 each to hold 753,100 shares indirectly !
.............and

Northern Telecom Ltd.___ William Hawe, insider,shorted 190,000 shares at between US$550.31 and US$ 51.88 each, exercised 240,000 options for US $ 29.16 to US $ 39.38 each, and sold 50,000 shares for $ 48.75 and US$ 48.94 each TO HOLD NO SHARES !!! hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Hi All,
interesting little article I found in todays Financial Post under Insider Trading :
Pan American Silver Corp._____William Fleckenstein,insider, bought 311,100 shares for $ 5.33 to S 5.68 each to hold 753,100 shares indirectly !
.............and

Northern Telecom Ltd.___ William Hawe, insider,shorted 190,000 shares at between US$550.31 and US$ 51.88 each, exercised 240,000 options for US $ 29.16 to US $ 39.38 each, and sold 50,000 shares for $ 48.75 and US$ 48.94 each TO HOLD NO SHARES !!! hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I can hardly wait.

Thanks for cranking the levers earlier, Gollum. I'd nodded off.
-EJ

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Sept. 30

-- TOTALS
Gold 958,389 - 1,193 troy ounces
Silver 72,796,610 - 13,784 troy ounces
Copper 67,729 + 0 short tons

Who? I've irons in the fire...will share when they are sufficiently heated to burn through the undergrowth. Strange things are happening...

DO NOT hit reload once you post comment ONCE. It has been received.

CHANCES ARE YOUR COMMENT HAS BEEN RECEIVED.......ESPECIALLY WHEN IT SAYS........."COMMENT RECEIVED, THANK YOU".

as Bart Simpson would say........DOH!

Shek - looks like you owe us all FIFTY pushups for that last bonehead move of being the bandwidth-bandit. Now, get down and grunt 'em out.....ONE, TWO, THREE, ETC...............

carry on soldiers.....
away...to watch gold top and come down again to make new lows
andwidthCop

go gold...

TOTAL REGISTERED
36,821,144 0 1,218,881-1,218,881 0 35,602,263
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
35,989,250 1,205,097 0 1,205,097 0 37,194,347
COMBINED TOTAL
72,810,394 1,205,097 1,218,881 -13,784 0 72,796,610
*******************************************************************
1,205,097 OZ'S received into eligibles.
1,218,881 oz's withdrawn from registered.
Combined totals= 72,796,610 oz's , down 13,784 oz's.
Note that total eligible silver is now more than registered totals.
It has inverted from what it had been. Eligible totals had been as much
as 5 million oz's below registered totals. I don't know what the
significance is. Just thought I'd mention it... Fox-man

September 30, 1998

Russia draft economic programme taking shape

MOSCOW, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - A Russian government source confirmed on Wednesday that the government's draft economic plan called for nationalising most commercial banks, a government-set rouble rate and would cost 100 billion roubles ( $6.7 billion ) .

Kommersant Daily newspaper published on Wednesday key points of the programme, written by First Deputy Prime Minister for economy Yuri Maslyukov and due to be discussed at a government meeting scheduled for Thursday.

The source confirmed the main points.

Top priority measures to be carried out in the next two months include a plan to nationalise most commercial banks and set up a State Reconstruction and Development Bank based on the nationalised capital.

The new bank would be 100 percent state owned and its main task would be to extend credits to pressed domestic producers.

The programme would allow key banks to remain independent but would raise their capital requirement by 400 percent to five million ECUs.

Russia has a number of small banks and has often said the sector needs consolidation.

Separately, Russian news agencies quoted Central Bank Chairman Viktor Gerashchenko as saying he was opposed to the idea of nationalising the banks and that Russia did not have the money to set up the Reconstruction and Development bank.

Kommersant also said that a committee would be set up to control Russian finances and the currency, and would be headed by Gerashchenko, or perhaps Maslyukov.

The committee would group all Russian financial authorities including the heads of the central bank, finance ministry, tax service and probably the new state bank. A major task would be to prevent capital flight.

The plan calls for moving from a market-defined rouble rate to one set by the state, taking into consideration the current account payments balance, inflation forecasts, gold and currency reserves and results of morning and evening bourse trading.

Limited trading of the rouble would continue.

Only authorised banks would be allowed to bring hard currency cash into the country.

"There will be many rates to satisfy all tastes," Kommersant said, adding that the central bank would enjoy the best terms for buying dollars as exporters would be obliged to sell 25 percent of their hard currency revenues directly to it.

A further 50 percent would have to be sold on currency exchanges.

In the social sphere the plan called for the paying off all wage and pension arrears in the next two months.

No new debts will be allowed to pile up after October 1.

From January 1 private incomes would be indexed and the minimum wage would rise.

Kommersant quoted the plan as saying the social moves would cost 100 billion roubles, and the newspaper said that Russia would have to print new money to meet the expense.

Russia's money base as of September 21 was 170.3 billion roubles.

Value added tax would be reduced to 15 percent from 20 percent, though income tax and profit tax would not be changed.

"The result...is hyperinflation," Kommersant summed up.

New York-Sept. 30-FWN--THE FOLLOWING ARE THE COMEX GOLD
warehouse stocks ( Note abbreviations--Reg = Registered;
Elg = Eligible; Tot = Total ) :

GOLD
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Depository
SCOTIA MOCATTA
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
Reg 272,882 0 0 0 33,476 306,358
Elg 47,199 0 1,193 -1,193 -33,476 12,530
Tot 320,081 0 1,193 -1,193 0 318,888

MORGAN GUARANTY
Reg 82,786 0 0 0 0 82,786
Elg 47,574 0 0 0 0 47,574
Tot 130,360 0 0 0 0 130,360

REPUBLIC NATIONAL
Reg 445,577 0 0 0 1,242 446,819
Elg 63,564 0 0 0 -1,242 62,322
Tot 509,141 0 0 0 0 509,141
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL REGISTERED
801,245 0 0 0 34,718 835,963
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
158,337 0 1,193 -1,193 -34,718 122,426
COMBINED TOTAL
959,582 0 1,193 -1,193 0 958,389
-------------------------------------------------------------
As you can see, there were 1,193 oz's withdrawn from total eligible.
Also, there was 34,718 oz's transferred from eligible to registered!
See ya later, Fox-man

Classic reversal tomorrow.

For those of you who enjoyed "Depths Of September", we have some more show tunes lined up. Including such old time favorites as "Fire In The Hole", "Arkansas Whipsaw", "Panic On The Steet","My Hedge Fund's Got A Hole In It", and many others.

My teenage son is asking, "what is the best buy available on a 20-dollar St. Gaudens, preferrably MS-64 or 63?" Does anyone know the answer, and where or how does he contact sellers?

The primary responsibility of ( good ) government is to provide the infrastructure which enables its citizens to thrive - which allows them to approach the American System ideal of "Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness."

It is the proper role of government to regulate the money, credit, and banking elements of that infrastructure. It is the duty of citizens to control such government, as they would control themselves, and are, in fact themselves, the government!

This control must not reside within non-governmental organizations ( NGOs ) because "transparency" generated thereby is so much more easily subject to both manipulation and fraud ... behind the scenes.

What is called for now, in America, is the Third National Bank of the United States. Also, in tandem, the destruction, brick by brick, of the disgusting Federal Reserve System. Go gold!

Bob in DC

Old Gold,

You are perceptive to concern yourself with "real" interest rates. Actually JTF and I were discussing the subject a week ago. I had quoted from Stephen Leebs "The Agile Investor,"
"When real interest rates are high, theres little incentive to do anything else but loan money . . . As a result, high real rates are no friend of gold. Gold doesnt pay a returnit just sits there, forever beautiful but doing nothing. So when real rates are high, gold must not only keep up with inflation to be profitable, it must keep up with real rates as well. . . . Only when real rates are negative does the whole investment world turn upside down. Thats when gold is suddenly a far better investment than lending money by buying bonds. . . One simple rule for buying gold is to buy when real rates are negative. During such times, gold goes crazy and you just cant own enough of it."
Leeb also charts the average gold price from 1972 to the present, demonstrating the fact that the
when gold reached $610 in 1980, the real interest rate was 0.08%. To determine negative real interest rates, you substact the most recent twelve-month rate of increase in the CPI from the current interest rate paid on thirty-year U.S. Treasury bonds. If your answere is a negative number, Leeb says you should "bet the farm on gold."

Hmmm, the last sentence of this release.....I've seen it so many times this year. My question....why is it that these volatile moves and "flights to safety" never result in a big Gold move?


U.S. blue chips end worst quarter in eight years

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - The Dow tumbled on Wednesday, ending its worst quarter in eight
years as investors faced a raft of worries from shrinking profits to fears about financial stability after a
Fed rate cut failed to soothe markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled unofficially off 237.90 points, or nearly 3 percent, at 7842.62.

The blue chip index fell 12 percent in the third quarter that ended Wednesday, its worst performance since a 15 percent slide in the same
quarter of 1990.

Government bonds roared higher as investors craved safety.

Since our government started selling 30 year Treasury bonds in 1977, the yield has never been below 5%. Today for the first time, the yield on the long bond closed at 4.96 % .As I have been posting day after day, the long bond is shouting loud and clear, MASSIVE DEPRESSION IS AHEAD. I also believe that the secong phase of the bear market started today with the Dow declining 237 points. Forget about inflation. This deflationary phase can't be reversed or stopped by central bankers or politicians. It will run to exhaustion. Our politicians and central bankers don't have a clue as to what needs to be done. IMF bail outs are not working. With the Nikkie around 13,400 Japan is entering a massive depression. In a bear market, the World economy is acting like it has a severe flu epidemic with everybody catching it at different times. For the coming depression I believe you should protect yourself as follow:
1. For income--Treasury bonds, AAA corporate bonds..
2. For living expenses--Cash on hand.
3. For capital preservation and appreciation--Gold and gold mining shares.
4. I would sell all vacation homes and rental properties.
5. I would also cash all pension plans such as 401k plans, IRA, etc. regardles of any penalties.
God help us all..

The programme would allow key banks to remain independent but would raise their capital requirement by 400 percent to five million ECUs.

ECUs...which, in three months, will be EUROs...

September 30, 1998

Mexico's central bank says effects of
economic crisis worse then expected

MEXICO CITY ( AP ) -- Mexico's central bank issued a warning
Wednesday that the effects of global financial turmoil have gone beyond
government expectations and that the troubles could intensify.
"So far it has been impossible to estimate the magnitude and duration of
the current recessions and the contagion reaching new regions," said the
Bank of Mexico's semi-annual report on monetary policy.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Mexico-Economy.html

Spoke to my friend in LTCM this morning, he said yesterday was a good day for LTCM. I asked about Buffet's bid for LTCM and he said LTCM had been shorting loads of Berkshire for months and that Buffets bid was more of slap to Merriwether than a serious bid. And once again he confirmed they had no gold, gold shorts, gold derrivatives.

Regretably, you are correct.

TO ALL:

Cash 30 yr T-Bond finished up 2 points! Many, many hedge funds have
shorted the long term T-Bond. Strengthens the fear of more failures in
the hedge fund market.

Not a chance!
Not a chance that LTCM was not shorting gold!
Someone is misleading somebody. Your friend you, or you us.

A short, depressing read. http://news.stocksmart.com/ss-news/CX1267317.html

What's a few hundred points between friends. Looking at the graph for the day, that wasn't anything like a normal days decline - that was selling from the open through the close - not panic by any means, but not pretty either. Who knows what tomorrow will bring, anyone care to guess ?

A trader at another Wall Street firm said MBS were also meeting their hedge ratio expectations. But the bigger story within that story, according to this trader, was movement between agencies in the lower coupons.

This trader said Government National Mortgage Association ( Ginnie Mae ) coupons ``have been on a rampage versus Fannie Maes.''

The reason, he said, ``is banks own Ginnies, and hedge funds own Fannies. All the swaps are going into Ginnies. Hedge funds are ( selling ) and banks don't have to. Banks are buying.''

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/7x.html

Hmmmmmm, as someone here is fond of saying.

-EJ

A trader at another Wall Street firm said MBS were also meeting their hedge ratio expectations. But the bigger story within that story, according to this trader, was movement between agencies in the lower coupons.

This trader said Government National Mortgage Association ( Ginnie Mae ) coupons ``have been on a rampage versus Fannie Maes.''

The reason, he said, ``is banks own Ginnies, and hedge funds own Fannies. All the swaps are going into Ginnies. Hedge funds are ( selling ) and banks don't have to. Banks are buying.''

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/7x.html

Hmmmmmm, as someone here is fond of saying.

-EJ

September 30, 1998

INTERVIEW-Peter Munk: No dedicated follower of fashion

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - Canadian entrepreneur Peter Munk has always seen opportunity where others have seen ruin.

It is a talent that helped him build Barrick Gold Corp. into one of the world's richest gold mining companies despite a decade and a half of languishing bullion prices.

Now he has similar strategic ambitions for TrizecHahn Corp. , his North American property company, which already owns some of continent's most prestigious real estate and is positioning itself for massive expansion in Europe.

Munk's "colleagues" include talented and carefully picked executives who run his gold and real estate interests. He also has an "advisory board" that includes former U.S. President George Bush, former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and former German Bundesbank President Karl Otto Poehl.

Munk places a high value on the "checks and balances" provided by such weighty advisers.

Barrick has become one of the world's most valuable gold companies.

It now has a market capitalization of around $7.6 billion and generates the highest cash flow in the industry, at around $470 million a year
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/CANADA-MUNK.html

The graph to look at, Mr. Envy sir, is the treasuries graph. Even in normal times the capitalization of the bond market is some 200 times that of the equities market. These days there is a hugemongous overhang of treasuries from years of yen carry trade, gold carry trade, asian crises flight money, rate cut anticipation money, and highly leveraged hedge fund money.

Today long term bonds leaped. The long side jumped up a staggering amount of virtual valuation. Those on the short side lost tons.

My guess for tomorrow? Reversal.

JTF, since you've been following the Chinagate "Technology transfer" issue closely, I wondered if you'd seen yesterday's Wall St. Journal article on the matter? Essentially, is states that insiders to the investigation, are concluding that Loral inot guily of indictable offenses.

U.S. Satellite Industry Lobbies To Save an Export Tax Credit

By ROBERT S. GREENBERGER and DAVID S. CLOUD
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. satellite industry has launched a lobbying
campaign to save a tax break and head off other problems it says would be caused if
government oversight of satellite exports is transferred to the State Department from the
Commerce Department.

Meanwhile, Loral Space & Communications Ltd., whose work with China on satellite
launches prompted Congress to toughen controls on U.S. missile technology going overseas, appears to be in less danger of indictment by the Justice Department. The company isn't the target of the Justice Department investigation into whether China received improper assistance from U.S. satellite manufacturers, people familiar with the matter said.
....... ( Tax credit legislation stuff.... ) ......
On the Loral matter, it was Loral's participation, along with Hughes Electronics Corp., on a panel formed by the Chinese government after the explosion of a rocket carrying a Loral satellite that sparked concern that the Chinese had received improper help on improving their missile-guidance systems. The Pentagon concluded in a 1997 report that the panel's report to the Chinese government MAY have disclosed information that harmed U.S. national security.

Because of that report, the Justice Department opened an investigation last year, examining whether Loral broke export control laws when it failed to get approval from the State Department to participate in helping Beijing determine the cause of the crash, which destroyed a $200 million Loral satellite.

But Loral's decision to bring the matter to the government's attention in the first place and the difficulty of proving the company may have intentionally violated the Arms Export Control Act make indictment of the company unlikely, people familiar with the matter said.

Joey-twocents,

Where do you think the price of gold is going over the next few months ? What about the DOW ? Where will be with those two on December 1st, 1998.

Wednesday September 30 5:05 PM EDT

IMF Says Global Recession Probable

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON ( AP ) _ Worldwide economic turmoil has cost millions of jobs and more than $600 billion in output _ the equivalent of a
country the size of Canada shutting down for a year, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday. The agency also warned that global
recession can't be ruled out, especially if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected.

In a sobering assessment, the IMF slashed its economic forecast, predicting the global economy will slow to a 2 percent growth rate this
year, the poorest showing in seven years. The world's economy will only slightly rebound to 2.5 percent growth in 1999, it said.

Both figures were a full percentage point below IMF estimates made just five months ago.

And even that marked-down forecast may not come to pass, the IMF warned, given the spreading financial turmoil that began 14 months
ago in Asia, leveled the Russian economy last month and is now threatening Latin American countries.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/19980930/bs/global_economy_1.html

Dow 7000, gold $320. --AG

It must be a combination of brainwashing ( "Gold is a terrible investment - look at how its gone down over the years" "Gold stocks are high risk" - you know, that kind of stuff, we hear it all the time ) in combination with the Gold = inflation hedge mindset.

Almost NOBODY ( 'cepting us here at Kitco ) equates gold with being a deflation or financial chaos hedge. And the sheople don't see any inflation out there, and they have never seen chaos ( BUT THEY WILL SOON ) .

Voyeur professor: While negstive real rates would send gold through the roof, signifcsntly lower, but still positive, real rates could still trigger one heck of a rally. My guess is that when real rates on long bonds and fed funds fall to the 2% area from around 3% now, gold will be something like $325-$350. Negative real rates probbly would push POG decisively above $400.

A quick check of the interest rate minus CPI vs. gold price charts will
reveal that the POG starts moving UP when the "real interest rate" reverses direction.

Another quick check of this chart will show that a reversal ocurred in August.

It is the citizens responsibility to control such government.
Too bad the soft, whats in it for me, 30 second sound
bite, ignorant, American citizens don't stand up and take
a pro-active involvement.

We did have one valiant public servant who outwardly
voiced his intentions to abolish the Federal Reserve.


John F. Kennedy

"Gold convincingly unhooked itself from its strong inverse correlation to the US dollar, managing to climb even though the dollar jumped higher against the yen. "

http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story2333.html

Voyeur Professor, Old Gold: Steven Leeb is very sharp, and understands the gold markets as well as any of us and understands the general equities markets. If I may, I will summarize what I know so that we can compare notes on an important topic.

As I recall, you were asking about why gold sometimes went up when rates were rising, and sometimes when rates were dropping. Dropping rates are easier to understand, because at some time if they drop far enough ( ie during a recession ) , money supply expansion eventually kicks in with the resultant inflation -- unless one is in a major deflationary cycle. During deflation real interest rates are positive, but not necessarily during a recession ( IMHO ) .

Rising rates are more complicated, because they may be secondary to existing inflation, but too low to make treasury investment attractive ( low or negative real interest rates ) . A factor in this is the loss of confidence in the stability of the dollar. The best situation for gold investment is when the FED has no choice of action, and is desperately trying unsuccessfully to control inflation ( such as the 80's ) , or is desperately trying to prevent a recession from becoming a depression ( eg 1993 gold rally ) , and is inflating the money supply.

Another reason for rising rates would be due to a run on the dollar. All of a sudden US treasuries are being dumped, and the FED must raise rates to protect the dollar form further damage. Again, loss of confidence in the dollar plays a role. I find this one harder to understand wrt to real interest rates -- which might not be going down at the time, as the inflationary effect is indirect and delayed -- due to the higher cost of foreign goods.

My guess ( IMHO ) is the one situation where a gold rally is not reflected in low or negative real interest rates is when the dollar is falling. Here the effect on gold is generally more immediate, as gold is priced in US dollars. The inflation and negative real interest rates comes later.

When you factor in taxes, low real interest rates get even lower. Can make them even more negative during inflationary times.

So -- there seem to be three scenarios where gold will rally. And in the fourth scenario where interest rates are dropping, but real interest rates remain high due to a low or negative inflation rates, gold does not rally. That is a situation that we must identify, because the usual dropping rates do not cause gold to rally until much later when the FED ( or its equivalent ) desperately inflates the dollar to jump start the moribund economy. ( Usually after most of the debt collapse has occurred )

Our current scenario seems to be a mix of deflation, and dollar devaluation. The SEAsia, Russia, South America stuff is deflationary, and the Clinton impeachment proceedings are bullish for gold ( bearish for the dollar ) . This makes it hard to know whether gold will go up or down - short term. All a matter of timing.

Comments, anyone?

ORO: Could you post the URL of the site with the real interest rate chart?

Thanks

What was up with that?

way down.

MEMO ON THE MARGIN
September 30, 1998
Milton Friedmans Bubbles

.... "We may have left the gold standard, but the private markets of the world retained it as the best single signal of monetary error -- inflation and deflation -- by all central banks. We do not need to go back to an old-fashioned gold standard, given the fact that we have a modern banking system that effectively replaces most of the gold functions -- including that of a medium of exchange. Alan Greenspan was quite correct in recent congressional testimony when he said we could simulate the gold standard and thereby make use of its most important remaining attributes." ....

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Oro,
Thanks for your quick and nimble calculation. The very fact that real rates have "reversed" bodes well for gold, particularly when the Fed will probably continue its rate cutting mantra.

Old Gold,

I agree that "negative" rates are not necessary for a gold bull; we are already looking at declining rates that have given gold impetus. And we seem to agree that the gold bull would be on the order of a move to $350 or $400 for now!

LGB: Glad to hear that Loral may be off the hook. Was this coming from department of Justice?
Do we know about the other US telecommunications companies, or the paper trail at Commerce where John Huang absconded with satellite communications codes? And then there is the not so small matter with COSCO and the planned equatorial launch of American satellites on that Russian ship with Russian missles -- was that deal cancelled?

Silver is looking better every day, isn't it? I'm glad I hung in there with PAASF, and a little SSC. Looked really bad for a while.
If silver goes down again -- I will just wait.

Hearing more and more comment on Car radio about Gold as Safe Haven as Bullion
continues to shine. Rome had its Bread and Circuses.Wall street HAD its credit cards and
Casinos. This Bear hasnt even growled yet......IMHO.

I have visited England for past 5 months, tipped a few in several Pubs and talked to many people including business associates about the markets. I am convinced by my very unscientific survey that enough people believe there is no long term risk in the stock mark. A 10 to 15 year grinding bear market has started and by the end of it the percentage of people owing stocks will return to early 1980 levels, less than 20%. When everybody has figured out how this market works, it will prove them wrong

Emerging debt sinks on Latam worries,US bond rally
Looks to be in the standard "fall" trajectory:

1 ) Stock market plunges
2 ) Currency pilliaged
3 ) Capital flees
4 ) Raise interest rates to 50%
5 ) Capital flight slows
6 ) Stock market plunges some more
7 ) Capital flight picks up again
8 ) Noises about IMF bailout
10 ) To be continued...

NEW YORK, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Emerging market debt sank by as much as five points Wednesday as a U.S. Treasury market rally drew buyers away from issues and investors waited for signs Brazil and other Latin American nations were closer to curing their economic ills.

``People in general are still worried about emerging market exposure,'' said Paul Masco, a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney Inc. ``Brazil is still losing half a billion dollars a day ( in foreign currency ) .''

Nice charts! Thanks for showing them to me. I hope Bart can get the lease rates info we need daily before too long so you can keep them right up to date.

Regards..........Dabchick

I have to confirm your observations ( now back living in the UK )
I remember 3 weeks ago One guy to an elder friend/relative "the trick you see is to hold 3 to5 years ! I rmained polite and did not comment.
When i tell people money is created by CB out of thin air i get looks and this strange group refered to as THEY would not let it happen.
having said that in the past 2 weeks i have had more asking me about PM's
buy gold and hold it
cpo

Question:
What allowance is made for taxation and inflation
( % terms ) when considering "real" return on bonds?

From a Canadian perspective, where taxation can run
at 50%, and assuming inflation at 1% ( I'm only guessing
here ) -- you are left
with 1.5% return when looking at bond yield. What is
wrong with this picture?

To Old Gold: Please explain how you arrive at 3%
real interest? Do you take into account taxation
and inflation?


A propos the Merrill Lynch change of position on pm's,
is there any more news on this subject?

Comments please.

according to USA Gold commentary http://www.usagold.com/Daily_Quotes.html

.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980930/bs/funds_3.html

Stock mutual funds reported a net outflow of $11.2 billion in August after an inflow of $19.53 billion in July, the Investment Company Institute said. It was the first net outflow of money from stock funds since a $520 million decline in September 1990.

Thanks for the update on platinum.

Yes, the smears do not change the facts!

In your 08:25 you mentioned buying Oex puts and stated the price. On the other hand you felt the SnP was going up, could you please clarify?? Thanks again for all of your help. ( I saw your 12:46 post also )

http://www.capitalism.net/cap_surv.htm

Snowbird,

You haven't asked me, but a simple, though not as profitable means of shorting the market, would be to buy Rydex's "Ursa Fund," which has an inverse relation to the Dow. It's also a no load mutual.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.45. The 233 day moving average is 28.59. We are below the 233 for 22 consecutive trading days

IF-IF you could trust our governments not to inflate. But that is like asking Klinton to keep his pants on! Never happen!
I see no way that the CB's can keep the lid on much longer. Soon they will have to admit that fact and then the bad news will be out of the bag and a world wide depression will be on big time. It is way too late to get out of this mess.
Got gold? cash? food? gun and ammo??

XAU/Spot Ratio = .253. The 233 day moving average is .248. This is the 5th trading day above it.

I used spot gold from Monex tonight for calculations. They have it at 296.50. The 233 day moving average is $295.18. Tonight we closed at the highest point in relation to the 233 M/A since May 17, 1996. That was 597 trading days ago.

gold's heading UP...right?

Always appreciate your research. IYHO, where do
you see the POG by week end? ( Won't hold you to it )
TIA.

I have some gold bets to make...any banks out there want to back me?

Wednesday September 30, 6:45 pm Eastern Time

Chase , banks renogiated LTCM loan - source

NEW YORK, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Chase Manhattan Corp. and more than 20 other banks signed waivers of default on a large
revolving credit line extended to troubled hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, sources familiar with the situation
said.

The fund, which is being bailed out by a group of banks after losing massive sums through poorly-timed bets in global bond
markets, was scheduled to pay $500 million into the facility by Tuesday, a source said.

Without the waivers, a source said the fund could have defaulted on the facility.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/be8.html

Apparently the Bank of Montreal suffered a large system failure this week. Will try to find more details.
Major shortage of IT staff on the street..........

My favorite chart ( which I don't have the ability to post ) shows a trading channel with a bottom in January 98, connecting to another bottom on August 31. If you project that out you get a high somewhere at $315.84 as a next top on the channel.

http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/CGI/wa.exe?A2=ind9809&L=hayek-l&F=&S=&P=3940

That statement is very significant if it continues in the September and October reports. That money leaving the funds is going to end up going many places ( cash, debt payment, little bit to bullion ) but the real impact of the outflow will a falling stock market.

Lou_Jan,

I am no authority on real rates, but I can tell you that inflation would only serve to drive the "real" rate lower to negative. Taxation always remains an issue with both bonds and equities; that is, you need to determine the relative risk and yield of equities as opposed to that of buying bonds. But taxation also represents an idiosyncratic issue: it varies from country to country and can of course affect your yield. But, once again real interest rates are simply the difference between actual interest rates and the inflation rate. For example, if U.S. government bonds are yielding 7 percent ( which they assuredly are not ) and inflation runs at a 3 percent annual rate, the "real interest rates would be 4 % ( 7 minus 3 ) . Obviously, the higher the "real" rate, the more money lenders can make. When real rates are high, gold must keep up with both inflation and real rates. This is why low real rates are better for gold. Also, negative real interest rates are an anomaly, but at our present time, it can be demonstrated that inflation has begun to become a real possibility. The vast amounts of money it will take to return the world to solvency, will inevitably prove inflationary. So with the Fed dropping interest rates and higher inflation emerges, then lower to "negative" real interest rates will result. I hope I havent confused you.

I hold Bearex at this time. When I made the choice between it and Rydex Ursa I chose Bearex because it appeared short volatile stocks and it seemed to be able to perform better. So far neither is doing as well as I had hoped. It was kind of you to respond and much appreciated.

http://www.acton.org/resources/libtrad/khaldun.html

"In the wake of the Long-Term Capital implosion we have continued to see those spreads widen out. I would say that most credit spreads are as wide as they have ever been. This is causing tremendous pain because the dealers who are short Treasuries are watching them go up and they can't sell anything they are long due to lack of bids.
IN ESSENCE, all of the excess leverage that has been employed for the last several years created the ILLUSION of excess liquidity. There never was enough liquidity to keep all the foreign markets, F/X markets, fixed income markets and all the equity markets going at the same time we were trying to fund growth in the ( real ) world economy. We had an illusion of excess liquidity created by excess leverage. That is the bottom line. It is very important to understand that point."

The discrepency between the Russell 2000 and the Big Indices ( Dow, SP500 ) likely incicates a movement of big money. Perhaps the PPT is letting a little air out of the bag. The common investor ( sic ) was probably blinded by the 1/4 point rate cut.

As to Buffett and LTCM, when Solomon almost went out of business due to the bond-rigging scandal and Buffett took over day to day operations, rumour had it that Buffett was so spooked by Derivative exposure that after he had restored credibility to Solomon, he tried in vain to unload his position ( which ended profitably with Travelers takeover ) .

While there, he changed the bonus scheme where bond traders could make multi-million dollar bonuses by gambling with shareholders money. Bet Big and if you're right, you earn millions in bonuses- Bet big and you're wrong, you start looking for a new job, but you didn't lose your own money.

Merriwether seeing a big salary cut, left Solomon to form his own company, LTCM.

"Financial historians will look back at the month of September
1998 with considerable bewilderment. While the greatest
financial crisis in decades overwhelmed nearly the entire
world, US stock investors continued to believe in the much-
trumpeted bullish scenario that things couldn't be much
better."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm.htm

Many, many months ago Munk strategically positioned Barrick's smack-dab-in-the-middle of, as Dwyer put it,
"this funny stuff going on in the gold industry". And if Sir Peter is paying for his real estate with gold, well then he is home 'free' -quite literally perhaps!

Now seems an appropriate time to thank you for all the effort you put forth, hacking 'n hewing information from the 'bowels of the net', refining, hauling it out to us! Thanks 6 pak.

That was a classic! Here's one back at you. I realize its not the quality of yours but its interesting to say the least. Scroll down and look at the Goat list. Lots of retailers and even some home building supply stores are in negative territory. Definitely eerie! http://fool.yahoo.com/fool/evening.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980930/commoditie_1.html

An Excellent example of how the media lies to the Canadian people about the nature of its currency, and Central Bank.

The Bank of Canada is Privately owned, otherwise Canada would have no debt. The author of that article is either a moron or a liar. Probably both, but I bet he is well paid and gets lots of perks.

That has a full, rich sound to it. Potential as a good marching
song...

Where's Abby Cohen now that the market needs her?

Could it be that her tongue is turning to gold??

Cout it be that she bailed out of LTC before the bad news hit the fan???

Good point. If LTCM had sold out, then the Banks would have been forced to write down and take big losses immediately. They also would have lost control on how the positions would be unwound.

The Limited Partnership aspect of LTCM protects the downside risk

I don't agree. If individuals allow or even demand that the State run the banks, interest rate, and currency...they will.

I just returned from the TV set to see Billy Bob Clinton modestly taking credit for the governmental surplus. I have a couple or three comments:

1. Is he going to take the blame as things go to hell?

2. What if anything did he personally have to do with any surplus?

3. Was there really a surplus or just number games?

4. When the hell is his term over? Enough is enough of that pantload.

This morning I thought the SnP could go up for a day or two. The oex is a trade lasting into expiration. On a strong rally you maybe able to get the options real cheap and have great leverage.

XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-09-30
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $20.0000 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.23
ASL-Ashanti Gold-------CLOSED AT $09.1250 0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.11
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $06.0625 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.09
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $07.3125 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $11.9375 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.07
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $21.0625 1.9375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.19
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $05.0625 0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.06
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $12.1250 0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.21
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $24.2500 1.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.64
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $13.8125 0.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00

XAU CLOSED AT 74.99 1.49

I have been following your discussion of 'real' interest rates vs. the price of gold, and have a question: What is the situation in Japan with respect to 'real' rates, and if they are low, or negative, why haven't the Japanese been big buyers?

Secondly, is gold an asset which may be preferred under low 'real' interest rate conditions because of the lackluster or negative performance of financial assets? It does seem to be the asset of last resort in recent times.

CNN had a nice clip of GOLD melting piping hot in a huge vat/ingot.

BUT NO MENTION OF GOLD AS A SAFE HAVEN!!!!!!!!!!!
The fact Moneyline did do this 'gold commercial' is a warning that only smart investors can appreciate.

I have this feeling like I've never had before....
the POG is going to rocket up bigtime, the question is when.

I suppose it'll happen like the LTC announcemnet, right when no one is expecting it.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/uy.html

I make the true deficit to be 113 billion....

September 30, 1998

Border confusion to begin as law takes effect

WASHINGTON ( CP ) --There won't be chaos, but there will be confusion for Canadians entering the U.S. beginning today when a tough new law takes effect that American border authorities say they won't enforce.

The law could trigger costly traffic nightmares along the Canada-U.S. border by forcing anyone leaving or entering the United States to fill out lengthy forms.

The Republican-controlled Congress passed the law in 1996 calling on for a new system of verifying the status of everyone who enters the U.S. by land, sea or air.

Republicans from southern U.S. states were responding to constituent complaints about illegal immigrants streaming across the U.S. border with Mexico.

American and Canadian business groups have suggested the increased vigilance could lead to backlogs as long as 17 hours at some border crossings.

Any delay could put a dent in the $1-billion a day in two way trade between Canada and the United States. There were 416 million border crossings last year.

Truckers estimate the added time would cost them $2,500 US per border crossing.

The Senate voted to kill the law in July. Until an agreement is reached between these legislators, Section 110 is the law of the United States, but without funding or enforcement by border authorities.

But Canadian officials say that repeal is unlikely because it wouldn't provide the face-saving solution that Republicans from southern U.S. states require.

http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Clogged-Border.html

JPMorgan-Mengle CB Risk Management, the New Paradigm
New directions: Active management of financial exposures

Modern financial management makes it possible to identify financial risks and manage them separately. The following examples illustrate solutions to the financial risk management problems commonly faced by central banks.

Example 1. Currency exposure. A central bank anticipates that it will have to liquidate some of its foreign securities portfolio to raise cash for its foreign currency reserve position. By doing so, the central bank forgoes the benefit of a rally in the foreign bond market and may even disrupt the foreign bond market through a large-scale liquidation. The central bank's management of liquidity is thus bundled with its management of interest rate exposure. A solution to the problem is for the central bank to sell the securities in the cash market and, at the same time, buy futures contracts on the underlying bonds. As a result, the central bank has created a synthetic foreign bond position; that is, it has replicated its exposure to the foreign bond market ( abstracting from the relatively small cash/futures basis risk ) while attaining its liquidity objectives through an underlying cash position.

The simultaneous purchase of futures and sale of cash securities should have little net effect on the foreign bond market.

Looking more closely at the synthetic position, we can see that the central bank is trading unwanted risks for wanted risks. The unwanted risk is the liquidity risk, which the central bank trades away by liquidating its foreign securities portfolio. The wanted risk is exposure to the foreign bond market, which the central bank took on by buying bond futures contracts.

The central bank has thus used a combination of derivatives and underlying cash instruments to attain its desired risk profile.
http://what.inet.jpmorgan.com/CorpInfo/Perspectives
/Central_Banking/Introduction.html

COMMENT: This is worth a read, considering where we are in our drama.

That's as I suspected. If we really do have a surplus I was going to walk naked down wall street covered with a thin gold sheen. Frankly I don't believe anything that comes out of Washington. And speaking of gold, its looking good and its looking like people realize that this is where the only safe haven financially is going to be. I have a good food strorage in addition but gold and food make a nice tandem.

Bonds vs. Gold
I learned a valuable lesson the other week when I tried to sell some of my bonds back to the bank that I bought them from. Two of the three bonds were not sellable before the maturity date. On the other, I would take a 32% loss. So much for what I thought was my most conservative and safest investment decision. Meanwhile my currency goes down the toilet.

RESEARCH ALERT - Homestake, gold stocks started
September 30, 1998 09:27 AM

NEW YORK, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - CS FIRST BOSTON said Wednesday that it started coverage on Homestake Mining Co. HM and other gold stocks.

-- started Homestake Mining with a hold.
-- started Getchell Gold Corp. ( GGO.TO ) with a buy.
-- started Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX.TO ) with a hold.
-- started TVX Gold Inc. ( TVX.TO ) with a hold.
-- started Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO.TO ) with a sell.

( ( Wall Street Desk, 212-859-1730 ) )
REUTERS

get gold before the masses wake up.

represent the usual course of action taken by governments as deflation spirals out of control.

The Japanese funds rate is presently 0.25%, so close to zero you might be tempted to think of it as "free money."

There's a problem, though. Deflation is rampant in Japan. Think of deflation as simply the negative of inflation, i.e., in times of rising prices the inflation rate is positive, say +3%, while in times of falling prices ( deflation ) the inflation rate is negative, say -3%.

Real interest rates represent the lender makes in terms of purchasing power and are determined by the formula:

Real Interest= Loan Interest - Inflation Rate.

Now in Japan if the inflation rate is -3%, then real interest rates are 0.25% - ( -3% ) = 3.25% When inflation is negative ( deflation ) fiat money is becoming more valuable, thus it pays the lender to loan his yen out to a borrower and get more valuable yen back later. When inflation is positive it pays the borrower to take the lender's money and pay the lender back later in less valuable yen.

NOw in the US with the funds rate at 5.25% and inflation running perhaps 1.25% ( this is the 'official rate' it's probably higher in reality ) then real interest rates are 5.25% - 1.25% = 4% so as you can see, a Japanese investor will make more money lending his money out in the US than in Japan. Until this situation reverses, Japanese investors will keep sending their money to the US.

Steve

My point is that the Central Bank is a privately held business. The article spoke of privatizing the Bank when it already is.

I think most of us on this page agree that Govts and Banks should not be involved in the creation of currency, and that Gold and Silver coin should be the basis of currency unleveraged and independent in its nature.

Prechter wrote in "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" that we might see the NATIONALIZATION of the Central bank. I don't think Govts should be able to print at will, but I also don't feel that a private business should be given exclusive license to print money at will either. The US Constitution adresses this pitfall, unfortunately the US is run by Traitors.

By the Way, Prechter says that up to the end of July, he had sold 27,000 copies of his book "At the Crest..". 27,000 copies ain't a whole lot, especially considering I bought several extra copies and gave them to friends.

problems. Unfortunately you have to be a big fish and have specialized knowledge to actively trade bonds- even treasury bonds ( which only exist in electronic form. ) The easiest way for ordinary people to trade bonds is to buy publicly traded shares in bond mutual funds. A lot of people are unaware that they can have capital losses unless they buy completely liquid bonds like government savings bonds.

- Steve

Early, very tentattive, but indicative.

Globex up, bonds down, dollar slightly up, metals slightly down, oil undecided.

Indications shaping up for reversal tomorrow, depending on how the night goes.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but when a market falls in response to a decrease in interest rates, the red lights ( or flags ) should have gone off in the minds of Joe and Jane Sixpack. But do you think anything registered with them??? NAH!!!!!

There are people in this world who trust their government ( like the British spoken of earlier this everning ) and those who don't.

I can only surmise that a ) it is easier to believe the talking heads on TV than to take contrarian action and b ) TV and the brokers have really done a brainwashing job on the average "investor" ( victim ) .

Sad. Really Sad.

Thank you, Sir! I was not sure of the current deflation rate in Japan, so couldn't evaluate what their real interest rate is.

By the way, my take on the real interest rate in the US, is that is about to get MUCH larger unless the FED is very quick on the trigger. A big stock market selloff will deflate prices in a real hurry. In addition, there is the real possibility of the FED having to raise rates when the EURO is birthed to in order defend the dollar. They ( FED ) are going to be in a serious box in about 3 months.

There are all kinds of ways to look at these scenarios with so many cross-currents around.

Stay tuned, and don't forget to get a program at the ticket booth. ( ;^ ) )

Hate to bother such an erudite and elite group of philosophers with a rather inane question but I've been trying to figure out how to read MRCI's S&P 500 Futures Premium. Here's a cut and paster from tonite.

S&P 500 Futures Premium 78.00 1395.00 -752.00 1355.00 +1367.00

Shoot, I forgot to get the labels. Anyway, if anyone could clue me in I'd appreciate it. BTW ( I think Gollum's part of the PPT, he keeps playing with his levers-A puff t'ya, baby. ) .

Imrahil

Good find. I especially liked where they say:

"IN ESSENCE, all of the excess leverage that has been employed for the last several years created the ILLUSION of excess liquidity."

This is the way it always is in every boom. Virtual wealth. People take the cash they have and buy "investments". They feel like they still have their wealth. Perhaps even more as prices go up.

Perhaps they use their increase in equity to borrow more.

Meanwhile the cash has gone to whomever they bought from, or perhaps to the bank where it will be loaned out. Leverage and the fractional reserve banking system will be used to extend more credit for more borrowing.

Everyone feels wealthy.

Everyone owes the bank.

No new real wealth has been created.

First one to cash out wins.

Thus bust always follows boom.

To All,
Just to beat a dead horse re: the hedge fund run by those who should know better...does this mean that a lot of education goes a "short" way?
Just kidding. Steve, are our favourite Queen Street eateries still in business? Well, back to lurking.

APH: Thank you for your posts. They ALWAYS bring expanded perspective to this site!

Tantalus Rex: I believe that one of the quote services has made a mistake by including ASL ( Ashanti ) in the XAU instead of ASA.

Bob in DC

about the end of day previous metals reports and I don't recall reading much about producer sales anymore.

Now if I were a gold producer and I looked at the markets around the world, I would be thinking to myself...'Maybe I'll hold off on my forward sale for just a little while longer...Maybe I'll get $320 or maybe $330'

Anyone know anything different ?

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Front-Template.idc?artid=19981001001435002?=front&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1492

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Front-Template.idc?artid=19981001001435011?=front&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2920

Joe and Jane Sixpack are still talking about McGwires home runs record and the latest on the Clinton scandal. Many/most of them have their 401k deductions made by automatic pay roll deduction. Talking heads are pretty much like commercials to them--something to quickly flit past with the remote channel changer.

Euro-currency Standing Committee

PROPOSALS FOR IMPROVING GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET STATISTICS

The collection of comprehensive and reliable statistics on derivatives markets was advocated by central banks in October 1992, when the Governors of the central banks of the Group of Ten ( G-10 ) countries released the report entitled "Recent Developments in International Interbank Relations" ( the Promisel Report ) .

This was followed by a report on "Issues of Measurement Related to Market Size and Macroprudential Risks in Derivatives Markets" ( the Brockmeijer Report ) , which was published in February 1995.

Against this background, the Euro-currency Standing Committee of the central banks of the G-10 countries ( ECSC ) last year asked a Working Group to develop a proposal for the more regular collection of derivatives statistics.

The Group, which was chaired by Shinichi Yoshikuni of the Bank of Japan, delivered its report to the G-10 Governors in July 1996.

The present report summarises the group's principal findings and recommendations. It is being released in order to finalise, with the input of market participants and supervisors, a framework for the regular collection of derivatives market data to be implemented at the end of 1997.

It also recommends that central bank experts examine whether it is desirable to conduct another global survey of derivatives markets in conjunction with the next foreign exchange market survey, envisaged in 1998.

In addition, the report provides an initial discussion of possible routes to monitoring price risks and exposures in international financial markets in a broader context than derivative alone. These systemic aspects of financial markets have long been a concern of central banks, but techniques for monitoring them have not been explored in detail either theoretically or quantitatively.

http://www.bis.org/publ/ecsc06.htm

I think you are right. Once the tremendous treasury/bond overhang starts to unwind you will see some of the fastest rises in interest rates in history.

What could make it unwind?

Like, what if the dollar starts to fall....

243 jobs shed from 4 firms

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/HK-Template.idc?artid=19981001001435029?=hk&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2153

Malaysia's blues

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Asia-Template.idc?artid=19981001022533016?=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2815

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Asia-Template.idc?artid=19981001022533036?=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1856

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Asia-Template.idc?artid=19981001022533013?=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1621


HK growth ( growth? i meant contraction ) forecast worsened

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Biz-Template.idc?artid=19981001004928050?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3066

the HK govt. creates it's own PPT?

http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Biz-Template.idc?artid=19981001004928021?=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3936

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

market doesn't look healthy, imho...

Thx, I'll check into it.

Basically, I do the calcualtions my self in a spreadsheet.

I have yet to calculate the XAU correctly. The formula uses market cap and only have an estimate for each stock cause I use an apprximation of the share O/S for each.

If I could get the correct O/S shares in each XAU stock, then I believe I'd get it right on.

High real interest rates in the US attracted the global liquidity. Money from asia came spiralling in. Money from gold carry came spiralling in. Hot money vapor condensed and became clouds of cirtual wealth.

As money spiralled in and helped to fuel the great US economic boom, it was taken from faltering third world economies. Global recession began in far off places.

Great torrents of liquid wealth fell at the eye, and arrid desserts grew at the fringes.

Now the Fed begins to lower rates.

The energy begins to unwind.

Eventually the desserts will bloom again.

There have been DECADES of hedging, leveraging, virtualizing to suck the life from the globe.

Now, the dam begins to quiver....

Gianni: I find it easiest and also maybe all I'm capable of, to answer you with a question...: Do you believe that credit, interest rates, and private bank viability should be dictated by political vote? Or by the choices individuals make by what they do with their money?

Niekii is down 100

As to who has been messing with Japan, I think it is either Gollum, or one of his henchmen!!!

What happened to to Steven Jon Caplans reports at Investor1? Anyone know?

Financial Economists Roundtable

Statement on Derivative Markets and Financial Risk

September 26, 1994



Observers recently have expressed heightened concern that derivatives may undermine the stability and efficiency of our financial markets and institutions.

Firms increasingly are using forwards, futures, options and swaps, and various combinations of these fundamental derivative instruments both to manage or reduce risk and to increase returns.

Current concern about derivatives centers on the expanding use of customized off-exchange ( or OTC ) derivative instruments, the largest component of which are interest rate and currency swaps.

This concern, no doubt, partly stems from the sheer size of derivatives markets in general and to the ballooning OTC derivatives market in particular.

The General Accounting Office ( GAO ) reports that at year-end 1992 the notional value of outstanding futures, forward, options and swap contracts alone totalled more than $17 trillion, up from $7 trillion in 1989.

Another reason for concern about derivatives is the seemingly impenetrable complexity of some of these instruments. This complexity has created an aura of mystery about derivatives markets, and has fostered a fear that a miscalculation by someone,

or an undetected but vital flaw in the market or regulatory system, could trigger failures cascading into a financial market meltdown.

The study concludes that OTC derivatives could pose a systemic risk to financial markets if a major OTC dealer were to default on its counterparty ( or contractual ) obligations.

It also finds that certain "unregulated" dealers, such as those affiliated with securities and insurance firms, have created a potentially dangerous "regulatory gap" that needs closing.


http://www-sharpe.stanford.edu/fer94.htm

I just checked the Philadelphia Stock Exchange which lists the XAU.
A description of the XAU and it's components can be found at

http://www.phlx.com/products/xau.html

It lists ASL, not ASA.

Kaplan is at a new address

http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/

Yes, sir,
I agree with your post about our sucking the life out of those economies in emerging countries. We are about consumption. And we will get the fix from anywhere and anyone from which we can take it, buy it, bargain it, or swindle it. The destruction of those economies is no joke. Their wealth was not just transferred, it was destroyed. Witness the total demise of their currencies, the downdraft of their real estate values, and so on. As I have posted many times, their wealth was destroyed. And for our powerful speculators, bankers, and financial elite, it was like taking candy from a baby.
History will hopefully reflect the true sequence of these monumental economic dislocations and their cause. The absolute worst ingredient of all this is that our financial giants did this knowingly, with intent, and of all people, did know better. It was just another cat to skin for them. "We are helping them build for the future." Sure. And they will remember all this "help" for generations. enough said.

Yes, sir,
I agree with your post about our sucking the life out of those economies in emerging countries. We are about consumption. And we will get the fix from anywhere and anyone from which we can take it, buy it, bargain it, or swindle it. The destruction of those economies is no joke. Their wealth was not just transferred, it was destroyed. Witness the total demise of their currencies, the downdraft of their real estate values, and so on. As I have posted many times, their wealth was destroyed. And for our powerful speculators, bankers, and financial elite, it was like taking candy from a baby.
History will hopefully reflect the true sequence of these monumental economic dislocations and their cause. The absolute worst ingredient of all this is that our financial giants did this knowingly, with intent, and of all people, did know better. It was just another cat to skin for them. "We are helping them build for the future." Sure. And they will remember all this "help" for generations. enough said.

September 30, 1998

Golden development... Moving on to the gold market, the Belgian National Bank, governing council member of the ECB ( European Central Bank ) , said "The bank has no need or desire to sell gold in the future to satisfy reserve restructuring." The "in the future" part of the
phrase is interesting because in the past the ECB commentary hasn't mentioned this. Another bullish development for gold.

Gold chugs along... What strength there was, we had in the precious metals. They tried to back gold off again in the early morning and it came back. The gold index, which was down a couple of percent, finished with gains on the day. The little yellow dog continues to imitate the little engine that could.
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

I am not in favour of the interest and credit of modern banking. I think it is far too serious of a matter to be put to popular vote. I think that the right to honest money should be assured.

where Jerry Favor went after he left MarketWeb?

Your handle speeks volumn's. Thank you.

I recall that he is an observant Jew, maybe it is for Yom Kippur.

http://www.prudentbear.com/manias.htm

Denton....Jeryy Favors runs his own advisory firm I believe and can be seen on CNBC sometime between 2-4pm every Friday afternoon...check the CNBC website for daily schedules..

The gold carry trade, leasing gold at low rates to be sold for cash to buy treasuries or other interest bearing securities at high rates, effectively sucked the value out of gold too.

With the hit on LTCM, one of the vacuum engines is crippled. With the Fed lowering rates the power is reduced.

Not only will the deserts bloom again, but gold will shine again.

He has been off Tuesday, and today.

Risk Disclosure by Financial Institutions*

*
The full text is on the February 1997 issue of the Quarterly Bulletin.

February 1997
Bank of Japan
Financial and Payment System Department

A. Growth of Derivatives Transactions

1. Size of derivatives markets

Derivatives transactions, such as foreign exchange-related and interest rate-related derivatives, have expanded rapidly since the latter half of the 1980s.

According to the Central Bank Survey of Derivatives Market Activity, conducted by the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) with the cooperation of 26 central banks on a notional and over-the-counter ( OTC ) basis, the global total for the notional amount outstanding of OTC derivatives contracts amounted to US$47.5 trillion as of the end of March 1995 ( Table 1 ) .

Although this notional amount does not accurately represent the size of risks, since the principal of a derivatives contract is not always exchanged, taken merely as a yardstick, it is close to seven times the nominal GDP of the United States in 1995.

On a market value basis, outstanding transactions amounted to only US$2.2 trillion, less than five percent of the notional amount.1

At some internationally active financial institutions, the notional amount outstanding of derivatives transactions exceeds the sum of on-balance-sheet assets, such as lending and securities.

In particular, the notional amount of derivatives transactions at some major U.S. financial institutions has reached close to 20 times their on-balance-sheet assets.

Accordingly, it is apparent that derivatives transactions account for an extremely large share of their banking business ( Table 2 ) . As for major Japanese financial institutions, this same ratio has reached two to five times.
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/ronbun/disclo.htm

September 30, 1998

One of the things that people need to be aware of is the destruction in the fixed-income market. The bond was up nearly two dollars today as it went through 5 percent. Most dealers that operate in the fixed-income market, whether it's mortgage-backed, corporates or munis, tend to operate on a spread basis. They own lots of bonds and tend to be short Treasuries against it.

In the wake of the Long-Term Capital implosion we have continued to see those spreads widen out. I would say that most credit spreads are as wide as they have ever been. This is causing tremendous pain because the dealers who are short Treasuries are long due to lack of bids.

IN ESSENCE, all of the excess leverage that has been employed for the last several years created the ILLUSION of excess liquidity. There never was enough liquidity to keep all the foreign markets, F/X markets, fixed income markets and all the equity markets going at the same time we were trying to fund growth in the
( real ) world economy. We had an illusion of excess liquidity created by excess leverage. That is the bottom line. It is very important to understand that point. ( It'll be on the final! )
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

Worth a repeat:
"This is causing tremendous pain because the dealers who are short Treasuries are long due to lack of bids."

I trust you weren't the author of that article. If you were, I apologize for the harsh comments. The public is kept in the dark about the nature of Banking especially the role the Central Banks play in stealing people's land and property and reducing the populace to mere serfs.

These same bankers own/control the media and so there is disinformation on the nature of Central Banks creating the false impression that they are owned by the Government when they are not.

tore him to pieces...take your pick on what subject...it will be in every paper in the land somewhere in print...on the Larry King show and Ross didn't let Larry get a word in edgewise...Yikes! Expect lots of cartoons about rabbits in the papers very soon...uh...huh...

After almost two years of looking ugly, the gold thingee charts are looking betterer and betterer. :- ) Now, where's that damn torpedo? I know it's out there somewhere!

Now the true motives behind the decline in gold prices, foreign currencies, commodities begins to emerge.

The big money hedge funds thirved from the carry trades. Yen carry, gold carry, any kind of hedged carry to glean the value from arbitrage dealings of presumed low risk and high return.

Their clients were the big money club. One needed millions up front for entrance fees, but recieved forty percent a year or better in "low risk" returns.

The big money club were the big banks, big investors, and other tycoons in the global financial markets.

The hedge funds suck the life from third world countries, gold, and whatever else the great octopus could get it's tentacles on.

The big money club was motivated to bestow ever higher leverage priveledges.

Some funds, like LTCM specialized in bond arbitrage, others gold carry, still others currency carry.

Fueled by the differential generated by high US real interest rates even as foreign rates and lease rates faltered, the hot money hurricane grew and grew.

Grew to a size fantastic beyond anyones dreams.

Asia declined, Russia went down, mining companies went broke and the oil cartel was brought to it's knees.

Now we approach the Armageddon, the days of reckoning.

The motives?

Just one.

As old as the apple presented by the Serpent in Eden.

Greed.

Figures from U.S. Treasury's "Public Debt to the Penny" web sight:

US Debt as of 09/29/1998 $5,523,785,740,880.23
US Debt as of 09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34

Looks like a 110 billion dollar DEFICIT to me. If you run a surplus, you don't end up more in debt. Clinton's claims that the government ran a 70 billion dollar surplus over the last year is an outright lie, as anyone with a web browser can see for himself.

Financial Economists Roundtable

Statement on Derivative Markets and Financial Risk

September 26, 1994

Costly accounting and disclosure provisions also should meet a cost-benefit test  the value of the additional information produced should outweigh the cost of obtaining it. At least some of the additional accounting requirements now under consideration may fail such a cost-benefit test. For example, the proposed requirement for corporate end-users of derivatives to report intra-year maximum and minimum values of financial assets and derivatives would require them to mark-to-market
many illiquid derivative positions for which obtaining accurate daily values would be costly. The value of this information to both shareholders and management may not justify the costs involved.

-cut-

2. It is not necessary to impose federal prudential regulation on nonbank derivatives dealers. There is no evidence that the activities of these dealers pose a significant systemic risk. In addition, we see no reason to impose the same regulatory structure on nonbank dealers as on bank derivatives dealers. As recipients and beneficiaries of government-insured deposits, banks are the proper concern of government and should be subject to different regulation.

3. Requiring banks to segregate their derivatives activities into separate and distinct affiliates is not necessary. Regulators can and do apply prudential provisions to banks' derivatives activities as well as to other bank activities. A segregation requirement for derivatives also may impose unwarranted costs on banks. However, U.S. bank holding companies should be permitted by regulation to form separately-capitalized derivatives affiliates not subject to the Basle Accord capital requirements or other types of bank regulation.

FER Members Signing Statement

( Affiliations shown for identification purposes only )



Rashad Abdel-Khalik, University of Florida
Edward I. Altman, New York University
George J. Benston, Emory University
Gerald O. Bierwag, Florida International University
Marshall E. Blume, University of Pennsylvania
Richard Brealey, London Business School
Willard T. Carleton, University of Arizona
Andrew H. Chen, Southern Methodist University
Franklin R. Edwards, Columbia University
Robert Eisenbeis, University of North Carolina
Martin J. Gruber, New York University
Nils Hakansson, University of California at Berkeley
George G. Kaufman, Loyola University of Chicago
Alan Kraus, University of British Columbia
Haim Levy, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and University of Florida
Robert Litzenberger, University of Pennsylvania
Robert C. Merton, Harvard University
Merton Miller, University of Chicago
Franco Modigliani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stewart C. Myers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard Roll, University of California at Los Angeles
Stephen Ross, Yale University
Myron Scholes, Long Term Capital Management
Eduardo Schwartz, University of California at Los Angeles
Kenneth E. Scott, Stanford University
William F. Sharpe, Stanford University
Seymour Smidt, Cornell University
Hans Stoll, Vanderbilt University
Seha Tinic, Koc University ( Turkey )
James Van Horne, Stanford University
Roman L. Weil, University of Chicago
Richard West, New York University
J. Fred Weston, University of California at Los Angeles

-cut-

LONDON, Sep 24, 1998 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's candid remarks on Wednesday over future monetary policy were fueled by the threat of a systemic crisis which would have repercussions well beyond the United States, analysts said on Thursday.

The risk of a financial accident in the U.S. economy, either through the failure of a large bank or heavily leveraged fund, and the implications this would have for global markets and economies, is the Fed's primary concern, they added.

-cut-

BUSTED!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/bnx.html

Do you ever get the feeling that these cat skinners are getting ready to
skin Mr.& Mrs. IRA, Joe 6pak,and maybe a few weak handed Gold Bugs
I just can't resist shorting this whole market accrost the board.IMHO

AZAU-- Chicken man "roosts" right next to Ft. Huachuca

well...I think you will here an outcry from our Armed Forces tomorrow... I would bet on it and it will not be pro Mr. Bill...oh nooooooo...

"As recipients and beneficiaries of government-insured deposits, banks are the proper concern of government and should be subject to different regulation."

Notice how they state that banks are the recipients and beneficiaries of government insured deposits? This is WRONG! Depositors are the beneficiaries. With proper regulation, banks would not be able to take high risk speculative positions to their own benefit, putting deposits at risk. The only risk which should be underwritten by the government would be market collapse due to negative depositor sentiment, which the banks would not have prospered from.

Hedge funds risk depositor confidence and should be regulated but not insured. Banks need to be regulated from allowing 50-1 leveredge of collateral.

Let me ask you a question. Have you ever wondered why the FAA would come forth with their peanut ban aboard US commercial aircraft? IMHO it is a fabrication, designed to test the tolerence of the 'Merican people to horse sh*t. I'm wondering if the same people who publish such tripe are also the ones who take presidential popularity surveys and who write p.r. for the IMF?

Next question: What have the peanut farmers done individually or collectively to get on the bad side of the DNC, WTO or other influential revolutionary organizations?

Square wave type waveforms are NOT compatible with power transformers. There are pulse transformers that are designed to handle such waveforms, but I've never seen one in a power application. The long and the short of it is that you would get one very pissed off transfomer! And you'll know it! After all

I = 1/L  Vdt.............. (  is the integral sign, V is the voltage, L = inductance )

In other words, to change the voltage across an inductor almost instantantly requires a lot of current! I mean a lot of current.

Was the list at http://www.phlx.com/products/xau.html typed in error?

The XAU closed at 74.99 per http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Exau&d=v1 and per http://www4.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/qport-905426.

The ASL close at 9-1/8 is inadequate to complete the XAU!

Very, very interesting!

Bob in DC

Password in Capitals WAVE5, In caps again TTI.
http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/SP/SPDaily/SPD/SPD_0.html

"A GROUP of international banks have admitted that they have cut credit lines to Lehman Brothers as fears grow that the US investment bank is struggling to meet its financial commitments.
The news came just two days after Standard & Poor's, the American ratings agency, warned that the narrowness of Lehman's business base may disadvantage it in a sustained period of low volumes and market volatility.
Shares in Lehman Brothers, now trading at a discount to book value, fell from $30 to $28. Just three months ago, on July 13, they were at $85. One City banker said: "We are about to hold a meeting on Lehman Brothers and whether we should cut our lines of credit. Others have already done so. There are concerns about it."
Bonds issued by Lehman Brothers two years ago are now trading at yields in line with junk bonds. Its floating rate bonds, which were issued at a yield of Libor plus 0.3pc, are now trading closer to Libor plus 3pc.
One banker said: "We are concerned that Lehman has not launched a support operation for its bonds, to bolster their prices. It is quite unusual for a bank to let spreads widen so far." A bank treasurer said: "I think Lehman is reserving whatever liquidity it now has. The last thing you want to do when you need a lifeboat is to have used it all up for a regatta."
The bank is still active in the repo market, which allows it to borrow funds using bonds and equities in its portfolio as security. This market provides financial institutions with short term liquidity.
Rumours about Lehman Brothers have been rife in the City for several weeks and, on September 11, the bank was forced to take the unusual step of denying that it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
A spokesman yesterday said the rumours about the bank "are categorically untrue and clearly designed to negatively impact the stock price. People ought to focus on the facts and not on wild speculation". He said: "Moody's, the American ratings agency, have confirmed our ratings and gave us a stable outlook and that was after an in-depth examination that ended last week."

there 50 ways to invest your money. And that makes a recent post here correct. Joe and Jane six pack are really a**holes for not doing something smarter with their money--- and screwing the rest of us.

Would someone tell Joe and Jane where to put their money. Besides, 401Ks are just an end run by the businesses to get out of paying a company pension.

Joe and Jane seem to be taking some heat for circumstances that they have nothing to do with. Joe and Jane have no way out.

Go gold!!!

Jerry

It should be noted that because of the high buy in to become a beneficiary of a supposedly high rate of return low risk hedge fund most of the clients were the big money brokers and bank directors whose firms and banks provided the leveraged liquidity. Mr. Merriwether had most of his own personal fortune tied up in LTCM as I understand it.

So this secretive unregulated endeavor was both provided the financial nourishnent to and was serviced by the very same people.

The banks used the global wealth entrusted to them to extract that wealth from the rightful owners and deposit in their own pockets.

Or am I missing something?

Ref your 21:45 post. Fleckenstein is absolutely correct. The stock market is a giant sponge sucking up liquidity out of the real economy. Also, that market money is never coming out at the current and still high price levels. It will soon be gone forever ( unlike gold ) .

Y2K bugs are primarily behind the booming surge in sales of gold coins says this interesting Bloomberg article.

http://www.bloomberg.com/fun/bbco/cmdspot/cmdspot1_01.html

Glad that you see the con.
Make the system your friend.
Sammy can not print PM,s...

Rogue trader 'cost AT&T $150m'
Pension funds of AT&T Corp, the US long-distance phone carrier, lost $150m in 1996 at the hands of a rogue trader who used the company's money to make risky bets on stock market movements and the technology industry, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has alleged.
The agency disclosed the AT&T losses in a disciplinary action released yesterday against RhumbLine Advisers of Boston and its chief executive officer, John D Nelson.
The firm settled SEC charges by agreeing to pay a $50,000 fine. Mr Nelson, the chief executive, agreed to pay $10,000 to settle allegations he failed to adequately supervise the trader.

The city of Boston ( Mass. ) has decided that thou shalt not smoke in restaurants. This is for the safety of non smokers due to second hand smoke....

Yup. Inch by inch....

Got gold? Got guns? Got enough ammo? Pretty soon all that you'll have to be doing is standing and breathing, and that'll be criminal...

Oh, yes. The state lost a little money in the state pension fund. It seems they were invested in the stock market and didn't know when to leave. Hmmm, isn't there a law about serving liquids at parties to the point of inebriation????

I guess I'm feeling a little rebellious tonight...........

September 30, 1998

Mexico draws down cheap credit

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30 ( Reuters ) - Braving the wrath of bankers but assuring itself cheap credit amid severe market mayhem, Mexico on Wednesday cashed in a $2.66 billion emergency credit that international banks had balked at renewing.

The Finance Ministry said it had drawn down the 18-month contingency loan, arranged almost a year ago with 33 banks, and thus protected itself against spreading financial crises which have forced devaluations in Asia and Russia, pushed up interest rates across emerging markets, and dried up credit.

"This operation, which is a sign of the prudent and forward-looking management of public finances, allows the federal government to obtain protection against international volatility..., and in this way comply with its objectives as far as public debt are concerned," the ministry said.

Mexico has been squeezed this year by plunging oil prices, which account around a third of federal revenue.

Despite some $4.0 billion in spending cuts so far this year, analysts say its fiscal deficit target of 1.25 percent of gross domestic product is beyond reach. Nevertheless, Mexico's fiscal discipline has won praise from the financial community

Set up by a consortium of banks from the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, Germany, Holland, France, Spain, Switzerland and Latin America, the loan was available for a year and renewable for another.

The banks reportedly included Chase Manhattan, Deutsche Bank AG, Merrill Lynch and the Royal Bank of Canada, among others.

But the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that, with financial turmoil roaming the globe at will now, the banks did not want to renew the loan at such low interest rates.

The newspaper quoted unnamed bankers as saying they felt Mexico was trying to "strong-arm them into a losing transaction""by threatening to draw down the credit before it expired, which is precisely what Mexico chose to do.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/MEXICO-CREDIT.html

Maybe BC thinks he is the real thing.......

Given that these are official government figures, I wonder what the real figures are ???

Tomorrow begins October, the month of goblins and witches.

I bet it comes in like a lamb.

Good night, everybody.

Gravity is a wonderful ting....what goes up always comes down.

Indeed, the "Club Members" have made huge profits gooing up, it will be very interesting to see what happens when all comes down.

The "average man in the street" may lose what he has to a bank in the down market, what should the "Club Members" lose ??? Fraud, fraud, fraud.......... time some took a holiday at Her Majesties Pleasure !

I am little surprised that you state that a square sine wave will not work with a transformer. A modified square sine wave most certainly will because I have been using solar for over 5 years with every conceivable appliance including transformers, video games, computers, printers and microwaves and have never had even the slightest problem with any appliance I wanted to run.

I have a Trace inverter that is capable of handling 3500 watts continuous, a battery bank of 16 Trojan 6 volt batteries and 12 panels.
I have used this system on a full-time basis for over a year and a half.
The el cheapo inverters are worthless as far as I am concerned. They all use a purely square wave. A modified square wave works just fine. Wha choo be talkin bout boy?

gollum: as I recall from Farkar's work, the 'workers' ( us ) end up slowly losing money to the 'acquisitors' -- the 'big guys you refer to. Eventually the 'workers' rise up and take control, giving the power to a 'warrior type'.

These are crude analogies to real life, though it fits Indonesia fairly well, possibly Japan, and may fit the future of the US. Our next leader will be a strong one with military ties --or if not the next one, the following one. I don't know how the wealth will be shifted from the few to the many -- this has happened before in the US without revolution. So it can happen relatively peacefully.

The industrial revolution began with power in the hands of the few in the US, but eventually lead to the most prosperous ever periods for all in history. So wealth can eventually be transferred back, even without revolution. But not painlessly. Perhaps there is still more to come from the information revolution -- some kind of post collapse 'rennaissance' comparable to the industrial 'rennaissance'.

I think also that alot of these 'big guys' will themselves get caught near the end of the dollar/gold, yen/dollar carry trade cycle, as they will try to get 'last trade', sort of like the criminal who wants to do that last robbery. One thing humans are not particularly good at, is adapting to sudden, sweeping change. Greed works against you too -- because it can blind you from seeing the truth.

It is easy for a gold bug to be afflicted by greed as well.

What do you think? Gold rally first, then collapse of the next Dominoe countries? South America, China, Japan? Or financial collapse first, gold rally second? These time sequences are real important to figure out, because if you invest in golsd equities at the wrong time, you could get badly hurt.

And when do the US markets collapse? Now? Y2K? 2010-2015 when the baby boomers retire?

Whatever happens we must not lose touch of the human qualities that we hold dear, and never give up.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg
------------------
Email chatter
---
Buried way down in Chuck Harvey's forward on utility readiness for Y2K ( thanx
Chuck ) , Roleigh Martin ( probably the most quoted voice on electrical
generation and Y2K ) had this to say as an aside to the technical considerations:

Another vantage that makes me nervous. How come so many of the sellers of backup power or
wind generators are talking amongst each other of how many utility company employees and
executives are ordering generators? How come so many engineers in PUC offices nationwide
who are studying this problem are ordering generators? I'm not going to name names and
embarass people, but the number is significant. One learns a lot by hanging around people who
work at the utilities and who work in state offices, or by emailing them or calling them up on the
phone ( you learn a lot more in verbal off the record comments than in email, I'll tell you that much ) .

Thank you for your Sept. 30th 00:08 post. I read The Tech Report you provided the link to. My friends and family think I am a pessimist by now ( how been lurking here at kitco for almost two years now ) and pay little attention to my warnings. But I now feel compeled to print this article and give it to my father-in-law to read so that he can't come to me later at ask why I didn't warn him more forcefully! It is amazing how efficient this site is in concentrating the important information out there and depositing it one convienient access location.

I thank all here who post there thoughts and information they find. It caused me to act a bit too soon this time, but in the future, I think it will help me to watch for the next crisis and, with patience, prepare to profit in a less stressful manner.

After another wicked day for Nortel, I had to jump in and position my self for a couple of buck re-bound. I hope things are indeed held up for a while by the buy-the-dip crowd - I'm not one of them typically but I believe it's over-sold. I hope I'm right

Down - 275.

The final line in that WSJ article about the Mexican bank
loan situation was a quote from a banker: 'Relationship is less
of an issue in a very difficult market situation.'

Beautiful day for a war. : (

.

A friend of mine works at a company that does y2k exposure analysis and repair. One of their customers is a power utility here in Alberta and he said that the guys working on the utility problem warned him to get a generator. I guess they won't be able to check everything and they are not sure of the level of exposure some of the custom hardware in the planets has. They can't test it because they don't want to risk a melt down and the companies that built the thing aren't around anymore!

Er, Gollum if you don't put that lever back before we get to
13,000 there's going to be sushi all over the floor, again.

the U.S. IMHO.

Schultz: I think we are all are looking at different parts of the same elephant. There are transformers that can probably pass through without loss a nearly pure 60 hz sqaure wave -- but that requires an expensive one. In real life compromises must be made, and the transformer loses efficiency after a certain frequency cutoff.

My guess is that you are referring to a 'modified' smoothed square wave from a Trace inverter. The high end frequencies have been removed. These devices are high quality devices, and have been built to handle the frequency limits of a transformer in a typical electronic device. I'm pretty sure Trace now offers a pure sine wave inverter -- for an extra price, but the 'dark current' ( no load current ) is probably higher than the smoothed square wave devices.

All of the above is undoubtedly discussed in brochures one can get from Trace Engineering, though I have not seen one. Home Power magazine discusses such matters in great detail.

I think the biggest concern most of us on Kitco have, is whether a regular AC generator can run a computer, monitor, and printer. Maybe, maybe not.

Here is a serious thought that may save alot of money for long-termers. Instead of buying a generator that does not last very long at 100% duty cycle because there is no power storage, buy an 'off the grid' unit that can run at maximum power/efficiency, say 8-12 hours per day, charge a lead acid go-cart type battery pack using cheap low voltage alternators and matched quality rebuildable 4 cycle motor with governor. RPM no longer needs to be strictly controlled, making a homebuilt easier.

One can then use a Trace invertor to run 115 volt appliances. Pays for the batteries and the invertor over the life of the generator, because the motor lasts much longer, and runs at maximum efficiency. You automatically reduce fuel tank refill frequencies too. You also get a system that should be guaranteed to run anything within the power rating of the invertor. Alot of people have used Trace invertors, so the data is out there. Upgradeable to solar cells, if fuel costs rise.

And -- we know the cost of fuel will be going up, y2k or no anyway! I will think about this some more. Anyone seen some prototypes of this kind of hybrid system? Would not be particularly portable.

LTCM is the best reason for the United States Of America for disbanning the FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM and for a world wide agreement, based on the right of sovereign nations to exist as indivigual entities, without userious dictates upon such freedoms.