Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:00 - ID#333126)
hot news from Japan
loan losses increase in Japan ( duh )

and, more interestingly, big mergers on the horizon for big banks

capital controls in Japan?

this Japanese big bang sure looks like fun...

Steve ( in TO ) - well, now, we wouldn't want the Japanese banks to keel over too fast now, would we?

what kind of accounting are they using? note in one of the articles I quoted that they are now using "book value" instead of "market value" ... hmm .... will this head off the crash or will it just prolong the inevitable?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:02 - ID#333126)
hot news from Japan
loan losses increase in Japan ( duh )

and, more interestingly, big mergers on the horizon for big banks

capital controls in Japan?

this Japanese big bang sure looks like fun...

Steve ( in TO ) - well, now, we wouldn't want the Japanese banks to keel over too fast now, would we?

what kind of accounting are they using? note in one of the articles I quoted that they are now using "book value" instead of "market value" ... hmm .... will this head off the crash or will it just prolong the inevitable?

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:02 - ID#384350)
Bull Dog - Shorting Shares
It is quite difficult. I learned some expensive lessons last year shorting stocks, some winners some losers. Some points I might make:

1. Always use stops and stick with them. Shorting can be risky, prices can move quickly. And even with stops, a company might receive a buyout offer, invent a cancer cure, or post great earnings etc after markets are closed.

2. Make sure your broker Pays you interest on the proceeds of the sale of the borrowed shares. If he doesn't, find a broker who does. This makes a Big Difference, especially when you are expected to pay dividends to the person from whom you borrowed the shares. That's another thing to look at. Is it worth the risk of paying out big dividends on some higher-yielding shares.

3. Avoid shares that are not very actively traded ( for example: a low number of daily shares traded divided by total shares outstanding ) . I think people can find out the short positions of certain stocks, have computers find out which ones are thinly traded and then Force a short squeeze. So try to stick to actively traded medium to large companies.

4. Be careful when judging some of these companies. Buffett doesn't like shorting and gave it up after dabbling a bit in his early days. He said that he could spot a definite sham ( like Bre-X ) but the price would continue to rise. So you could look at companies like Amazon, Yahoo and think that they are over-valued, but the price continues to rise. I was lucky last year when I wanted to short Amazon, but the Broker couldn't come up with the shares. A short squeeze just seems to send these companies higher, and I think there are people who manipulate these stocks on a daily basis, buying and selling because they know people have to cover.

5. Again always have stops in place. Also, you should have a target where you will take profits 1/2, all etc.

6. Technical analysis helps for entry points. Look at the overall market for timing. You might have felt that there were good shorting opportunities with the Dow over 8000 and could have gone out hunting for candidates. After the market correcting 500 points in 2 days the bargains might be a little less.

7. Fundamentals aren't too bad either, like if you have a good reason why a certain company might fall short of targeted profits.

8. Remember when you short a stock, you are actually selling someone else's shares and then buying them back later. So there are transaction costs for the purchase and sale. So perhaps a discount broker is best, but again make sure you get paid interest on the proceeds of the sales.

The discount brokerage firm I used ( rhymes with Carlo's knob ) didn't pay me any interest on the proceeds of these sales, even though when I asked several people on the phone if I was being paid it, they said "yeah, I think so." It wasn't. It was like depositing a check into your account, you get credit for it, but no interest for a couple of weeks ( in this case never ) . So try to get it in writing. In my case it was several thousand dollars.

9. Also if a client wishes to sell shares and the brokerage firm doesn't have any more because they have been lent to people like yourself, then the brokerage firm may force the closure of your short position, ie force you to buy back immediately without your permission. No matter what people say about people panicking, in my opinion the little guy really is in it for the long haul. He will watch it go all the way down, only selling if he truly needs the money.

10. To short shares you need to deposit cash, shares on margin, as collateral. If the big one does really hit, the brokerage firm that has the money and the insurance that covers it may go under, and thus your capital is at risk. I'm not fully aware of the insurance schemes involved, but I wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket so to speak.

That's all I can think of for now. I hope it helps

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:06 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Same ole' hot air ( BS ) the government spills out everywhere one looks. So what else is new? I would also like to know how they can manipulate those pressurized gloves. 5 PSI above 'ambient'. They sure don't seem to work that way on earth under that pressurization. Pictures are even another story! Nope. ALL done in a film studio, with boo-boos.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:09 - ID#187109)
a good week.....(so far)...
I love tradin'............

currencies especially..........................................................................its like goin' to the race track.........................................and winnin good........................................ohmy!.............................'tis good..............................................c'mon gold.......................giddyup...................I'm waitin'...................................uh huh.

elevator.............................. ( ? )

305.....and then.................... ( ugh ) ...
away... ( uh huh ) ...

JD - what eggggxackley does 'GET' say regardin' gooooooaaaaal.......D.... ( ? ) .... ( that's GOLD ) ....

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:11 - ID#219363)
@EJ, Sharefin
Sharefin: I love your charts, please keep posting them!

EJ: Lead with the little stocks, get serious with the financials and end it with the tulips and blue chips, right ? *grin* Today the MSFT's and DELL's of the world starting buying it. I don't think people realize that MSFT traded within 10 points of it's all time high today, 45 points higher than it's 52-week low. These guys are history. Everything else has already bought it, time to rack up some impressive numbers by knocking out the index makers. Or maybe I'm wrong. If I am wrong, I don't mind, it's worth it to throw the dice on what would be the trade of the decade. As they say, gotta pay to play.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:17 - ID#257312)
Charts! S&P vs XAU

1984 to present--^XAU&d=mys

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:19 - ID#190411)
Jupiter, This might be of help. Also aurator

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:21 - ID#257312)
More Charts

Nikkei vs S&P since 1984--^N225&d=mys

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:22 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Auric -- Does that mean that they'll meet again, but at 400-500 this time?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:27 - ID#257312)
Bank Index vs S&P

One year comparison--^BKX&d=1ys

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:28 - ID#284255)
I'll keep posting them so long as I can have a ride in your new Jalopy ( ;- ) ) )

I also do a swing chart on Aussie stocks.
The industrials, mining, oil stocks plus put and call swings.
And this chart is equally revealing.


I already have one data set - OZ mining stocks
But would need a couple of other data sets to get a good reading.

Say if I had the ADV/DEC/UNC numbers on SA gold stocks and Canadian stocks and US gold stocks.

That would provide a chart similiar to my swing.

ANYONE got these datasets???

ANYONE want a swing chart for GOLD???

Email chatter
With my comment at the top.

I have one very interesting thought about this report.

And all because of this one line.
"There is an addition complication the computor control room which controlled all three units was
destroyed so they have no automated control and getting a new computor control up and running
will take considerable time."

Now everyone thinks the explosion caused the problem.
They will think mechanical failure was at fault.

But here we have a control room right next to the souce of the explosion.
What if it was a computer/chip failure that initiated this breakdown.
Who thinks that the explosion was triggered by a technological failure?

It would be very revealing ( and sobering ) to know if this was the case.

You may have seen the following news item from another source,
but if not it is the best example of technological interelatedness
that I have seen.

The KEY thing to remember here is
that this is ONLY a local disaster,
with alternate sources of supply
being available from MANY other places.

But, WHAT IF, it were a generalized problem.
And MOST EVERYONE was having the same problem.
Then there is no source for relief.

No matter how severe, an earthquake, toronado, hurricane, may be,
there are outside places to send relief,
BUT in the case of Y2K, Nuclear War, Massive Asteroid, Earth Changes,
Massive Solar Flare, or even Pacific Basin Tsunami,
and other catastrophes of this ilk,
we are speculating about such a massive and overwhelming catastrophe,
that either no outside help would be available or could meet it.

Peace and love,


Subject: Australian Y2k test site?
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1998 13:34:56 +1000

We are now 5 days out from the cut off of Victoria's gas supply and the
effects are now becoming more apparent. we are told there will be a
minimum of two weeks before there is any hope of any gas coming on line
and up to 6 months before full service may be available. In part this
is because they will have to install new piping to bypass the defunct
gas unit which blew up. There is an addition complication the computor
control room which controlled all three units was destroyed so they have

no automated control and getting a new computor control up and running
will take considerable time. Interestingly although there is some
strain on the power grid because of massive extra usage it is holding up

because the Snowy Mountain hydo generation system has extra water
available in their cachments because of heavy rain this winter however a

cautionary notice has been delivered that this may change.

Businesses continue to close their doors and 100,000 people will have
been stood down by the end of the week. Some businesses will close
permanently ( some as early as 2 weeks ) as their cash flow dries up.
Just In Time deliveries problems are now spreading ripples outwards as
small supply firms close down as major manufactures close up shop. By
the end of the week General Motors will close plants in South Australia
and New south wales. Why? All their engines and many other components
come from Victoria so the effect will be felt nation wide. All milk
processing has stopped and many food processing plants are grinding to a

halt. The rest will follow quickly. Pilkington glass is in big
trouble, unless their glass furnaces are cooled down slowly the
solidifying glass will tear the furnaces apart destroying the plant.
Another tile manufacturer is in a simular prediciment. A problem not
considered by this newsgroup however it dramatically increases the
problems of going back into production.

Very interesting to watch what is happening, the scenarios raised in
this disscusion group in a partial way are coming true. The
infrastructure has unravelled very quickly due to JIT and
interdependencies. We would be in very big trouble if electrical power
restrictions had to be promlgated ( a slight possibility ) . POLLYANNA'S

We are lucky only this state is in trouble emergency gas is being
provided for emergency services and hospital via a small gas line from
New South Wales and bottled gas supplies are being shipped in. No where

near enough but every bit helps. Most of our bread supplies are being
shipped from interstate and increasingly other food stuffs too.

A silver lining? Perhaps if it wakes people up as to how vunerable they

are. There have been a few references to Y2k in the media along these
lines and I expect them to increase as people question the dependancies
they have taken for granted.

Bev Armstrong

Disclaimer : My opinions and actions are my own, not my employer.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:30 - ID#288349)
Re: Shorting the Market
There is a VERY important piece of data that anyone who is shorting the markets or trading PMs usinf leverage should be aware of. I looked at 5 or 6 different contracts when I first set up my account. Every one of these contracts had a clause that stated that in the event the company went broke you coould lose your investment. They also tried VERY hard to get everyone to agree to accept binding arbitration in lieu of litigation in the event that they went down. I had to ask a lot of questions several times to get the answer that I wasn't required to agree to binding arbitration. I think most people just sign whatever they are given.

Anyone out there who thinks that they are going to profit from a major meltdown had better make sure they have read and understood their contract.

Although I don't profess to be an expert, 5 out of 5 instances convinces me that this provision is probably standard for all these contracts. I did quite a bit of trading futures and no one would let me trade unless I signed something that in essence bulletproofed the company I trading through.

The potential for having your assets tied up for years in legal battles is a very real possibility when you trade on margin. You should also consider the mindset of other people when you ask for justice. I seriously doubt the politicians or courts are going to be sympathetic to people who shorted the market or were long PMs.

As others have said many times on this site. We will undoubtedly be blamed for the financial misery coming down the pike. Strongly suggest physical.

This was the reason I nclosed my account and converted to physical.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:40 - ID#257312)
Eldorado 00:22

450 sounds like as good a place as any! Me and my good buddy, August von Finck, will watch this together. Ja?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:41 - ID#255284)
Toxic Stuff here.....
I thought mercury was used before chlorine? You gotta admit, Hg, Cl, Cyanide and Aqua Regia are all ugly substances. It's funny how you need the ugly to get the beauty that is gold, eh? Kinda Yin and Yang of metallurgy. More talk like this and we're back to alchemy!!

ANd did anyone post about the Isreali plane that ran into an apartment buiulding in Holland in 92? It appears that 3 out of the 4 chemicals needed for manufacture of Sarin gas were on board. This is apparently the reason why hundreds of people in the vicinity are suffering from lethargy, and general malaise.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:41 - ID#220325)
Bulldog on shorting equities.
Watch for APH'S posts. He usually provides a day to day synopsis of his trading and is very generous with his inforation. Good luck!

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:41 - ID#384350)
mozel - Lunar oddesies
I remember seeing footage of that as a kid. My mother said, "Look its footage of man taking his first steps on the moon."

I said, "If that's the first man on the moon, then who is taking the pictures?"

Oh right, that must have been pictures of Buzz Second-Comes-After-First Aldrin.

Or was that really supposed to be Neil Armstrong saying that one small step thing while we were supposedly watching him being filmed by some other being?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:44 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Wonder how they got those bulky suits through that little hatch.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:49 - ID#31868)
Now cut that out...first it was Santa Claus...then the Easter Bunny...then the Great
Pumpkin...and now the Moon man...this has got to thing I know you guys will tell me gold is money...sheesh...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:50 - ID#335379)
Hello Schultz: Send me your email, private message. send to:

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:53 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Gold is money? DOH!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 00:57 - ID#257344)
first it was the digits
Now Aurator, mercury is used only to recover real coarse gold from a metallurgists point of view. First you pick up the big stuff with your digits ( not all gold miners have the same number ) , then you grind up the rest of the concentrates with mercury, pan it down, squeeze it thru a chamois skin and roast the amalgam ( do not breath! ) . If you throw away the other stuff, it still has gold in it. Then you have to use other chemicals.

Yes there were a number of gold processing plants built upon the use of mercury. Some plants incorporated stamp mills where the mercury was mixed with the ore which was beated to a pulp with a hammer-like device. Other mill used copper plates covered with mercury to recover the gold from a pulp after in was liberated ( love that word ) in a stamp mill and later ball mill.

Mercury does not recovewr the very fine gold that constitutes most ore bodies. It ie really a function of a property called surface tension. Etc.......

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:02 - ID#153102)
@Gianni @Eldorado @T1
Methinks the show being run by the Wizard is even a bigger Fraud, if that's possible. Hypothecationally, it is.

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:06 - ID#384350)
Tolerant1 - Gold is Money?
Hmmmmm, Banker after Banker told me that Gold was a commodity. But come to think of it, my economics book said that commodities are common. Isn't Gold somewhat rare? And currencies are not supposed to just grow on trees either.

Hey, I'm starting to figure something out. Gold has a lot of caracteristics of money. Yeah, Gold is Money. That's the ticket.

So my message to you is the next time someone tells you that Gold is a mere commodity, you can spit in their faces for me.

Oh wait, that's not your style. Namaste

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:12 - ID#255284)
Help with coins pleae
thanks for the link, those pages were just some of the 2000 that got fritzed in the great data meltdown the other day. Boy, someone must really have it in for me, anyway, they're back in my archive.

Help plse with identifying some 1 oz bars in amongst the Engelhard Ag bars and liberty dollars I picked up today were these two curios, can anyone tell me about them please?

They are both the same shape as the oblong Engelhard bars

One has these words United States of AMerica 1776 1976 with an eagle in full flight and carrying a spear on reverse one troy ounce 999 fine silver
The other has these words

International Trade Unit One troy ounce .999 fine silver the liberty bell ??"Pass and ph??" engraved on it ( what's that mean? ) with a decending Eagle and flanked on both sides by Old Glory. The reverse is blank apart from a scroll border

I like that, "International Trade Unit"

Get ITUs

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:12 - ID#31868)
Mozel, Namaste' and a gulp to is...possible...grrrrrrrrrr...
Gianni Dioro, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...I can be subtle...Nah...with Honor...and in your name...such shall be done...

and with that...Namaste' to all...gulps and puffs to ya...bbml...thud...

John Disney
(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:18 - ID#24135)
Tutzi jumped over the Moon !
for Mozel ..
I'se converted Brother Mozel .. I has seen de light..
I has been followin the false god of the fake-o
moon landin .. but NO MO!!!!!

BUT Seriously Mozel .. there was a movie made on
this .. it had Elliott Gould in it .. I think all
the reels have all since been seized and destroyed
by the CIA. ( I made that last part up actually ) ..

On another subject .. recent rise in ASA calls has
enabled me to get my Tutzis fed and bathed ( very
important ) .. these boys are getting edgy jes
stuffing around cutin ma grass .. they need some
action.. at yo disposal .. suh.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:24 - ID#255284)
It's all about Mercury, Hatters and madness.
yup, that's pretty much as I've heardthe mercury and gold amalgam was heated in a special condenser and the VAPOUR of Hg was run off first, having a lower boiling point to be collected for re-use. This was, I believe, before the cyanide process was discovered.

Now, I guess we all know that Lewis Carol's Mad Hatter was a based on a common apprehensions that Hatters were mad. It is supposedly because Hatters used Hg in their trade, and Hg will make you mad. Makes you think about amalgam dental fittings and the ecological and human tragedy of Minimata Bay.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:27 - ID#255284)
where fiction re-defines fact......friction fractions facts
The movie was, I seem to recall, based on an early story by Michael Crichton, before he became really popular.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:28 - ID#240288)
Faked Mars Landing

Capricorn One was the movie, with Elliot Gould and OJ Simpson. "Cut!"

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:31 - ID#287305)
I take it you are not from around these parts. There are literally thousands of different styles of 1 ounce silver bars here in the US. They were originally sold to some poor schmuck who probably paid spot X 2 becuase of their unique and endearing qualities. Most US coin brokers have hundreds of the type of bars and they are generally sold at or very near spot.

As to the emplems on the pieces I might be able to shed some light there.
The Pass and PH is actually a typo. It should have read "Phil in PH"
The eagle carrying the spears was probably minted in either Detroit or Washington D.C. These coins are somewhat of rarity because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the American Civil Liberties Union.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:34 - ID#190411)
That International Trade Unit name was impressed on silver one oz. rounds too. I have several types that I got with an order of 1000 one ouncers. It places it around 1982, or thereabouts.
Silverbaron or gagnrad might know something; I sure don't.
There were scores of private Ag bullion mints back when silver was rocketing up. Someone probably paid 25.00USD for your one ounce bars.
Sleep time for me,
If I ever get one of your quizzes, I don't need the book either, as I have one also. I just reread it when gold started going down the toilet again, last June.
I re-convinced myself that everyone is nuts except me. ( -Save the golbugs at Kitco )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:36 - ID#333126)
Japan's PPT must be spending big time today^N225&d=1d

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:37 - ID#384350)
Nikkei Chart
I can't remember seeing a chart like this. It's bent back, kind of like Superman bending steel, almost trying to turn back time. Note the buying at 10 AM and 1PM. A very sharp hyperbolic rise, followed by a strange correction.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:39 - ID#190411)
Schultz, You beat me to it.
I got them at .05 over spot.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:43 - ID#255284)
Thanks for your response
That's right, I'm from forn parts...noo zilund is how we pronounce it.

The American Civil Liberties Union? really? Thanks for the info. Do/did they mint them to raise money? Obviously the other is a bicentennial commemorative.

What does Ph in Phil stand for? I guess it's part of the Liberty Bell, something and fellowship/brotherly love?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:49 - ID#287305)
Gianni Dioro
Being somehwat familiar with Asian philosophy the trend line is really quite explainable. Perhaps you have the heard of the ancient reference to "one hand clapping". Here we see "one shoe dropping".

There are other fascinating correlations. The ancient Romans called this "Covorus thoust asseous". The reason for their downfall was that this was literally misinterpreted to "Covet thoust asseous".

But seriously folks...How bout those Japanese!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:52 - ID#284255)
Could this be real???

Email chatter
First of all, thanks to all the good people on this forum who
have welcomed me back.
On to the serious stuff. Hurricane Georges. I live about 60 miles
N. of New Orleans. I have never before seen our fascist
government mobilize as quickly as it did prior to, during and
after this hurricane. When the hurricane watches went up, I
noticed that on NOAA Weather Radio, in this area, it was being
stated that the Federal Emergency Action Plan was in effect.
Whoa! Red flag...translation, we are initiating Martial Law. I
cannot give you exact timeframe, but probably in the neighborhood
of 48 plus to landfall. I was trying to get a few things
together, in case we had to evac. One by one, each Mayor, Parish
President ( we have Parishes here in Louisiana, it is the same as
your County elsewhere. ) declared that there would be either
voluntary evacs or mandatory evacs of their areas. Then came the
declaration of one allowed on the streets between
6PM and 6AM the next day. Time approximate. It changed depending
on which Parish you live in.
My Parish said you had to remain inside as of 10PM. The country
is different. But in many cases, the
Mayors of the major cities, i.e. New Orleans, and Mandeville on
the North Shore of Lake
Ponchartrain, clearly stated that they had the manpower to, and
would strongly enforce and arrest
anyone violating said curfew! Second red flag!
Prior to this, on Saturday Sept. 26th, I was in New Orleans
taking care of some business. I did not
really want to go there, but if you don't work, you don't eat!
So, I spent over 45 minutes
driving less than 3 miles. This was still on the South Shore of
Lake Ponchartrain. The gridlock looked
like Los Angeles at 5 PM. I know. I lived in Southern California.
The sad part was, that there were
many people whose cars broke down. Beaucoup accidents. Tempers
flare. People yelling at each other. People who ran out of gas. I
felt sad. There was nothing I could do to help these people, no
matter how much I wanted to. My objective was to get out of Dodge
ASAP. Cars overheated, people using their air conditioning in
traffic that was crawling at 5mph. Air temp inthe low 90's. The
time was approx. 2PM Sat. the 26th. The rats were leaving the
sinking ship. Why was I reminded of the movie Titanic?
New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial opened 2 shelters of last resort.
One was New Orleans
International Airport in Kenner, and the other was the Superdome,
in downtown New Orleans.
People were advised if they came to the shelters, they had to
bring there own food, clothes, bedding,
personal items, etc. Well, a lot didn't. They were fighting over
the fact that all the officials at the
Superdome were giving them was a hot dog and a soft drink. Since
they weren't supposed to give
you any food, why would you complain? You might not like hot's not one of my favorites,
but when you are eat it! Fights broke out in the
shelters over the food being given out.
Let me state IMHO that you are foolish to even consider getting
yourself in this situation to begin with. Mayor Morial finally
decided to let those people in the shelters leave when they
wanted to, I guess he decided that exercising his authority was
not worth a major riot in the Superdome, the cities centerpiece
sports's arena. To his credit, although that is saying very
Registration of each family remember was REQUIRED at each
shelter. Then each Mayor for
whatever city had the final say when you could LEAVE the shelter
when the danger passed. In effect,
you were being held hostage. It was continually being stressed by
the news media that all curfews
would be strictly enforced. Where are your papers?
When all was said and done, New Orleans escaped the "Big One"
Certain areas of the city had
major damage. We had wind damage at the greenhouses up here. But
we got lucky.
Why am I telling y'all this? Because I believe this was a trial
run for things to come. The interstate
system was shut down. The major bridges in the New Orleans were
shut down. Shut down and
barricaded, by either cement blockades, or State Police, or is
Police State? We had National Guard
troops running around in camo vehicles in my neck of the woods.
It was very easy for the powers
that be to shut down New Orleans in a hurricane. What will happen
when the power grid goes down
and stays down? People were acting crazy. Can you picture what's
coming? People, this should
demonstrate to you beyond a shadow of a doubt what they plabn to
do to us. Get out of the cities,
NOW if at all possible. I have tried to summarize this in the
easiest way possible. This was no picnic.
It was a trial run for Martial Law and the introduction of the
New World Order!

John Disney
(Fri Oct 02 1998 01:59 - ID#24135)
Morning Mumblings ...
Someone asked about bonds/ currencies .. I would park
cash in Swiss for the moment if you have any.

"Get" right now is bullish on Gold and Silver .. has
them in wave 3 on dailys .. bearish on Plat which is
wave 5 down dailys and should support .. maybe turn
up at 340-345..

Harmony is p!ssing me off .. there is a big resistance
at about 5 bucks .. it must break that. I would see
this as a good place to switch from other stuff into
Hgmcy .. Results out in a few weeks .. I would GUESS
that they will have significantly better results than
Drooy.. also impact of a possible Harties purchase by
Drooy could be negative and slam them into a corrective
wave 4. BUT drooy is in a fierce wave 3 up in a pencil
thin channel .. when it breaks .. look out for a
strong retracement .. but who knows how far this
rascal can carry ( long enough to cash my options I
hope ) .
Someone asked about Anggold .. its outstanding ..
remember it now consists of Vaal Reefs .. Western
Deeps .. and Fregold among others .. there will be
plusses from restructuring .. its the best and biggest
gold mining company in the world .. I dont play it
much just because I like the gearing in HGMCY and
DROOY .. but I play NOW via e-dagga which I explained
before acts as a Anggold proxy .. with a bonus of
maybe 3 rands a share.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:00 - ID#284255)
Perhaps *Farfel is not so wrong.
Avid Chatter:
oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:43PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
twocents: What the heck is going on in the bond pit. This is scary, I tell
you. There MUST be a threat to the entire system lurking out there where
only the cognescenti can see it. If we dont get a capitulation in the stock
mkt either tomorrow or Monday, producing for a GOOD bottom to rally from,
drawing some of this scared money out of bonds, this thing is in deep
trouble. There is no way the bond could do what it did today UNLESS there is
something out there at least as bad as LTC. I'm glad I got those
mountaineers on my side. And my Swiss Guards.: )

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:45PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
If it is as bad as i suspect, Bubba will be bombing somebody in a few days.
Of course it will be somebody who has no bombs of their own.: )

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
twoc: When I sold my bonds last week, I VIOLATED on of my cardinal rules,
learned ( like most things of value I have learned from somebody else ) from
"Reminiscences.......". Never sell a profitable long ON THE WAY UP! There's
always plenty of time after the top is in.

pester . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
enter the serbs - just in time oleman. The street wanted 1/2 - so maybe
they're pushing the yield to get it?

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:49PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Just got filled on some short spoos.

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:50PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
What's happening in Yugoslavia? I never see any news anymore.

twocents . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:50PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman, took me a while to figure out the mountaineers since i don't trade
options. LOL!!!// the weird thing is the dollar going down AS the bond goes
up. i mean if the swiss were buying us treasurys that's one thing: they
always buy tops, but they are repatriating and burying it in the back yard.
; ) let's face it, the treasury and fed are in the business of marketing us
tresasurys. i think they are buying the hedge fund short bonds and getting
squeezed as they do it. only thing i can see other than the scary obvious...

fiend . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:53PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:53PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
pester: Who's killing kids and oldsters again? The Klintonistas hit another
medicine factory or sumpin?

fiend . . Thu, Oct 1, 8:54PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Massacre in Kosovo? Women and children killed execution style. What else is

oleman . . Thu, Oct 1, 9:05PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
pester: Your 8:56 reminds me of "1984". If the telescreen says the enemy
this week is Eurasia, the proles shout "Death to the Eurasians". Next week
they'll shout just as enthusiastically for the destruction of Eastasia, when
Big Bubba's mouthpieces change the enemy again. Yup, The Serbs are likely
targets. Not as good as Moslems, but white Christians with no air force will
do just fine for the Klintonistas, thank you.

pester . . Thu, Oct 1, 9:06PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
scary ole!

sciecon . . Thu, Oct 1, 9:31PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Short squeeze on the bond! Wow! You'ld think it was presstek or yahoo or
something like that. hmmmmmmmm.

johng . . Thu, Oct 1, 9:42PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
for you oleman: "NATO Set To Strike Serbs" site link

just heard from a broker in Sydney town that a BIG US bank is about to announce some huge losses which will stun the world.

STUN - will that mean they will make LTCM's losses look small???

But that's OK.
LGB looking over his shoulder says all is OK.
And never has it been so good before. duh

John Disney
(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:01 - ID#24135)
Mad Hatters...
for salty ..
of kyurse I knew THAT .. You continue
to amaze .. youall is one clever Kiwi

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:01 - ID#255284)
factoids and fictoids get all messed up....
Thank you.

The US should be very concerned about Japan, economically and militarily. The Japanese, like most of us, have a finely tuned "Blame someone else" gene. They even managed to blame the US for the Tokyo Earthquake of 1921? ( unchecked date ) the US had apparantly invented an Earthquake Ray. They'd probably seen it in a Japanese Monster movie...

Thanks YOU. I have been torturing my tiny mind over the name of this book for several days.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:02 - ID#333126)
@schultz - latin
not being a scholar of ancient languages, what does the phrase "Covorus thoust asseous" actually mean?

btw, the shoe dropping analogy isn't a bad one - but when does one shoe dropping cause one to trip and fall over?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:05 - ID#333126)
rumours about brokerage failure
heard something about BT - not much substance to it though ( so far ) .

anybody got more tantalizing news on this one? ( I've sold my BT put warrants though... )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:05 - ID#284255)
Geeezzz I hate to harp - but
GPS Bug Menaces Satellite Communications

Therefore, all software dependent on the GPS clock will have to be completely rewritten. If it isnt, systems could be at risk.

Pagers, cellular phones and satellite Internet connections all depend on GPS technology.

The GPS Bug could disable satellites all over the world for a much longer period of time.

The Iron Triangle
Power - Finances - Communications all have a deadly foe.


And like a spider its tangled web is spun all through these systems.

But all is OK???


Sure wish I had some.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:05 - ID#287305)
Yup couldn't agree more. I was in LA during the riots. I was about as far from the rioting as one could get and still be in LA county. Just for fun I decided to stop over at the local K-Mart to pick up some more ammo since although I really didn't need it.

As I reached the sporting goods section I saw 2 kids loading rifles into shopping carts. I sked one of them to give me some CCI .22 and he said they couldn't. The police chief ( Herr Gates ) had asked all retailers in the area to "voluntarily cease selling ammunition and firearms. These guys told me they were loading the guns into an armored car in the back of the store which was going to all K-Marts in the area.

They would even sell me measly box of .22s. Our housekeeper's daughter was trapped at their apartment down in South Central. I hopped into my backup vehicle we use when our other cars go in the shop to perform the "extraction" as expected since I was considered a "Patrona".

I put on my best gangster outfit and hit the streets. Right after I left the Santa Monica Freeway I drove right through the heart of insanity. There were overurned cars burning in the streets and an entire row of retail electronics and camera store on fire. People were running in crazy diagonals across the street in complete glee. I was one of only 2 or 3 other drivers.

We got to the apartment and after what seemed like an eternity mother and daughter emerged and I scooted them into the backseat. My heart didn't slow down for a couple of hours.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:18 - ID#219363)
Japan Unemployment at Record High
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's unemployment rate bounced back to a record high 4.3 percent in August, boosted by an increase in corporate restructurings and bankruptcies, a government agency said today. The number of jobless rose to 2.97 million, a new record high, the statistics bureau of the Management and Coordination Agency said. The figures were the latest that showed deterioration of the Japanese economy.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:22 - ID#284255)
Damn scary if you ask me.
I don't know.
I live far away.

I normally would read this sort or article as scare-mongering.


Times are a changing and the writing on the wall is not good.

I guess that's why FEMA is there.

A couple of threads I hang out on have been discussing and pulling this thread to pieces.
Very revealing comments.

This photo here is one of the compounds.

Resplice the url to view.

And the FEMA had a brilliant test run at herding the sheeple just recently.

Very efficiently done to I might add.

Certainly makes one think???

Got GOLD???

I don't think I have to say go gold any more.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:23 - ID#219363)
Countries With Economic Troubles
Countries whose economies are expected to contract this year or are vulnerable to a downturn, possibly next year, and some economic problems in each. The projections from the International Monetary Fund represent the annual percent change in the 1998 inflation-adjusted gross domestic product.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:24 - ID#255284)
ALL ANZACS invited to yarn a bit.........
sharefin ravenfire candlabra all antipodeans.

Tonight we have read two eye witness accounts of what the merkins do in a disaster. sharefin I thought your post was hard-hitting because of the immediacy of it. Shultz THANK YOU for sharing your experience of the riots in LA. I hope you saw my post months ago ( now lost? ) about my sister in an Earthquake in Edgecumbe.

The question I am asking the downunders is this:

We have had Powercuts in Auckland, foul water in Sydney, and now, no gas in Melbourne, apart from the "usual" fires and floods, droughts and earthquakes...

How do you and your friends/families handle disasters? Is it just me living in my cloud cuckoo land? But do "we" react as do they?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:34 - ID#284255)
BT was mentioned as a potential.

But haven't they already come clean?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:36 - ID#240288)
Officers of UBS Resign and

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:37 - ID#333126)
@aurator (re: handling problems)
here in Sydney, the water problem just caused the sales of bottled water to go through the roof ( I have a sneaky suspicion that the bottled water companies paid people to contaminate the water samples...hehe ) - and there were warnings to boil water for 1 minute before drinking -- later they added "cooled" to the warning after some people apparently got ... hehe ... hurt from drinking overly hot water.

my friends in melbourne are suffering no hot water for their showers and some problems getting hot cooked food but not much else. then again, my friends are university students and weren't affected by the forced unemployment like some working class people ( up to 100,000 if the reports are right ) .

my gut feeling is that society here is NOT prepared for a major emergency. fires, floods and the like they've faced before and have some inkling about how to handle but shortages of gas, electricity and water ... well ... y2k ... here we come ...

i'll just bet that the majority of Australians didn't expect industry to largely shut down because of a gas shortage in Victoria. how many were shocked to hear that auto parts supply companies in NSW, South Australia and other related companies would have to slow down because of the widespread effect? hmm....

personally, i'm gonna be spending dec '99 to jan '00 back home in Malaysia close to family and friends ( including those with real sources of food... )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:40 - ID#219363)
France 3038.01 -32.51 -1.07%
Germany 4147.70 -78.79 -1.86%

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:48 - ID#284255)
Life in the tropics when things screw up???

Cyclone preparation.
Buy beer.
Stock up on food.
Buy more beer.
Clean up yard
Drink beer.
Batten all hatches and tape all windows.
Drink more beer.
Check fuel for generator.
Buy more beer - lots this time.
And a few more cartons for good measure.

Then wait and drink lots of beer as TSHTF.
If it doesn't happen.
Go out for a drive to inspect local damage and buy some more beer.

If the eye of the cyclone goes overhead you normally have time to zip out and stock up on lots of cartons of beer.
This is very important so that you can survive through the other side of the cyclone.

Which is normally tougher than the first half.

Our only other threat up here is tourists.
But if you are smart you can get them to buy the beer.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:49 - ID#255284)
I trust that's not leaping out of the frying pan into the fire! Family are great comfort in such times, I agree, but I hope your homeland gets straightened out a bit before then. Which part are you from? I've not heard at all how East Malaysia or Sabah is handling the crisis. It's all knews from KL. What about the Pearl of the Orient? How is Penang? fond memories I have of visiting Malaysia.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:50 - ID#284255)
Walker letter
From our 9/13 issue of MarketEdge:

Our bigger picture outlook is still negative, and we are
content sitting on the sidelines. However, at some point
in here we should get a strong rally that lasts more
than a couple of days. It may well come from lower levels
( though with the extreme bearish sentiment that we have
right now we would not be surprised to see it start soon ) .
And we suspect that this rally will be quite powerful -
look for it to run up somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40%
of the market's total drop since the 7/20 high. However,
once again we will view this as a bear market rally

and will expect it to fail.

Well the expected rally started the next day ( actually, looking at the
charts, you would probably call 9/11 the start of the rally ) . And the
rally WAS very powerful and persistent. The DJIA rallied back up 781
points of the 1,967 points it lost between 7/20 and 9/1 - a retracement
of 39% of the total drop. The SP500 did better and surpassed our
estimate, regaining 50% of its drop.

The market internals throughout the rally were generally strong. Many
of our internals measures hit some pretty extreme overbought readings.
While strong market internals are a positive for the market, there were
some unusual undercurrents that didn't look too healthy. The volume of
the declining issues was quite heavy, implying that there was a lot of
stock dumping going on even as the market rallied. Another trouble spot
during the rally was trading volume, which kept dropping as the market
rallied. We like to see volume increase during a market rally.

So we had a strong bear market rally with some troubling undercurrents.
The rally lasted the better part of a month and was able to generate
some very overbought conditions. Now the market has turned down and we
are flipping the calendar over to...**OCTOBER**. The month of market
crashes. We certainly don't know if there is going to be a crash, but
right now it sure looks like we have more work to do on the downside,
and a retest of the 9/1 lows looks like a very strong possibility.

Our model's Signal Strength was not too impressed by the rally. It did
move from 6 to 7 on 9/14, but this was not enough to trigger any moves
in our strategies. However, from the look of several of the model
components we would not be surprised if we saw a rapid rise in signal
strength IF the market does start to rally again.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:50 - ID#252391)
To John Disney and all
Thanks for the reassuring words on HGMCY. May just take your advice and switch more into HGMCY. Gets above $5 & 6 and there isn't much left of overhead resistance.

GOLD AND SILVER - everybody ( except John, I guess ) seems to have gone sour on silver. Gosh, one little down day and a few ozs. into COmex and I see nothing but bearish comments. If we close below $5.17 I'll evaluate joining the bearish camp.

MY PERDICTION: Stock markets open stronger and fade to the close. PRECIOUS METALS open weaker, in memory of the smashing of last Friday, but rally into the close with Gold above $300 on the weekly close.

I'm prepared to be disappointed; the Central Bank lease activity attempting to control gold at these levels seems almost impenetrable, and perhaps it will be until the end of the year and beyond - don't know, but if it ever stops and the public comes in - whoooooooommmm up she'll go. May have to just pay to wait in order to be sure to be there.

Nevertheless I'm sticking with my perdiction: Lower openings for gold and silver then up to a positive, news making close.

I like happy endings.

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:50 - ID#384350)
Sleeping with the Whore of Babylon

John Meriwether's creditor list is looking more and more like the Fortune 500. Merrill Lynch, America's largest brokerage firm, said its total exposure to hedge funds totals $2.08 billion, with Meriwether's Long-Term Capital comprising $1.4 billion of that figure.

What a tangled web we weave!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:52 - ID#240288)
Citicorp to Be Removed from S&P Index

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:57 - ID#153110)
Thanks, but already have enough gold-eating Tutsi stateside.
Send gold instead.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 02:59 - ID#240288)
WSJ Column

"Not buying brokerages until I find out what
is wrong with these stocks."

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:00 - ID#333126)
thanks for your concern, but i think i'll take my chances with my homeland ( though the jury's still out on whether that remains so for the rest of my life ) for the y2k fiasco. just-in-time industry and shipping just doesn't have the same hold back there ...

i don't think you'd know the town i'm from. it's Kluang, the town smack in the center of Johor, the southernmost state bordering Singapore. great place. not too many people, not too few ( somewhere between 100-200k ) . my dad owns a durian plantation ( 9 acres ) which is way out of the way and he has a generator and a water pump -- the generator was needed for when the electricity hadn't come in yet to that out of the way plantation ( 40 minutes out of town, then 30 minutes more on a dirt road ) .

hmm... gotta go out. i'll be back around to see how the US markets do tonight. i'll go with the rally that fizzes out prediction for the NYSE tonight.

btw, here's the news report for the UBS resignations:

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:43 - ID#386245)
I'm moving up there immediately to wait for the next cyclone. Your shout, mate.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:44 - ID#240288)
German DAX Hits Air Pocket, Punches Through Yearly Low^DAX&d=1d

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:47 - ID#284255)
Nick @ Canabeera
What you want to be a tourist???

Sounds great to me matey.

I'll just slip out and grab a few.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:47 - ID#240288)
Here Is DAX^GDAX&d=1d

(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:49 - ID#240288)


(Fri Oct 02 1998 03:59 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Here are the Lease Rates calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.

MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month



Gold Lease Rate-1.37--------------1.66-------------1.71-----------------1.82

( Change ) ------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( + 0.05 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month


Silver Lend Rate--1.70--------------0.90--------------0.40-----------------0.20

Silver Lease Rate-3.64--------------4.41--------------4.85-----------------4.86

( Change ) -------- ( + 1.10 ) -------- ( + 1.10 ) -------- ( + 1.00 ) ----------- ( + 1.20 )

The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since yesterday's figures.

Tomorrow's posting of lease rates will be at 10:00 Kitco time, in with the weekly summary, unless anyone says they need the Friday lease rates to come in at 04:00.

BTW, I apologise for the double-spacing between the lines in the above tables, but I have not found out how to stop it happening. Continuous text like I'm typing now works OK but if I hit the return key ( you know, the double-size key with an arrow that goes down/left ) like now ... ( hit key )

it gives me a double-space between lines. And the annoying part for me is that on Bart's preview presentation this double spacing doesn't appear. I draft this on Lotus WP but I can't think that is significant. How can I make mine look like the tables that Tantalus Rex or HighRise or Aurator regularly produce without the double spacing. Can anyone help ?????? could save valuable space here.......TIA


(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:06 - ID#386245)
I have eaten durian and I know what it does to people. If Y2K is really bad, I am coming to live with you on the plantation. That is, after exhausting sharefin's hospitality and a couple of cyclones. Last time I was in your country I drove from Singapore to Butterworth with a million side trips. Lovely country, people,food and customs. Too bad about the politicians!! Especially loved Malacca and its markets and history. 25 years ago I worked with one of your countrymen in Sydney-a student about your age. We used to sneak out at lunch time to a Malysian restaurant and talk non-stop about life in Malaysia.

By the time you return, you will be an 'international' investor ( judging from your Kitco posts ) , hopefully with funds outside the country, to freely purchase whatever investments you desire. I own investments in several different countries. Easy. Also good protection against currency devaluation. cheers, N.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:06 - ID#284255)
Old and new GPS news
What's to be done with GPS?
"The most significant system today that is not [year 2000] compliant is GPS, which would have more impact than anything else," Emmett Paige Jr., assistant secretary of Defense for command, control, communications and intelligence, recently told the House Government Reform and Oversight Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology.

According to documents provided to Congress earlier this month by Paige's office, the year 2000 problems within the space segment can be found in two pieces of ground equipment: the Bus Ground Support Equipment vehicle checkout stations and the Boeing Mission Operation Support Center ( MOSC ) .

The GPS ground control segment consists of six monitor stations, four ground antennas and a master control station. The software needing date code fixes generates the uplink code to the satellites. It was written in the 1970s and uses only two-digit date fields.
And then this latest one.
GPS Bug Menaces Satellite Communications

Therefore, all software dependent on the GPS clock will have to be completely rewritten. If it isnt, systems could be at risk.

Seems to me that these two articles are drawing the conclusion that the code that runs the system is DOA.

And this has nothing to do with GPS reciever failures.

This is to do with the system that runs the system.
The master system.

If this goes down.
Goodbye sattelites.
Banks, power stations and banking plus much more.

Global integration on a F*'d system is gonna pull lots down.

Technological spiders are spreading their webs - or have already done it.

Got gold???

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:16 - ID#284255)
Write your text in your word processor and paste into the posting box.
Don't use the preview and don't worry what it looks like in the posting box.

See if this works.

Still fiddling with your data and getting closer to the chart.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:31 - ID#284255)
Clinton back on the job

The bill offers limited liability protection for companies sharing information about the computer problem they believed to be true at the time but which later turns out to be incorrect.
Another out for lying up front.
What more could you expect?

Now the banks can say they are compliant all the way up to Y3k.
And if they are proved wrong they can wave this piece of paper in your face.

Sound like situation normal.

Snipped from the web
ABC News on Y2k

I just watched the Peter Jennings Report on ABC.
Short, just a few minutes. A closer look "at the potential chaos that may be
caused by the Millenium Bug" A few short sentences explaining what it is.
THen, they covered the Lubbock TX Y2k test.where they "simulated what might
happen" from embedded chip failures. Talked to a fire department official who
basically said that all the checking up being done by manufacturers comes down
to "they cant say 100% it will work". They quite clearly stated that no matter
how prepared you are, theres too much depending on infrastructure to control,
they called it a "domino effect". Lubbock may be prepared, but a recnet poll,
survey??? ( I missed the phrase, I was taking notes ) of cities and towns in
America "80% havent started working on it" ( I dont recall hearing the
justification for that figure, nor do I recall when that figure is from-
sounded like he meant right now ) He asked one of the Lubbock officials "What
do you say to people that htink you are alarmists" ( I may not have the exact
words for the question ) The prompt answer was "We hope so," something to the
effect that it was too important not to take action. They then cut back to the
studio, and he asked " is there any reason to be optimistic?" "you can have a
problem in one part of the world, and fix it in another" and then went into
another short segment on how Indian computer programmers at TATA consulting
services in Madras, India are working on fixing code for many companies in the
US at 1/10 the wages of US programmers.
Interesting segment. I really didnt expect ABC news to say "be very afraid"
but they didnt say not to either, the language was a bit stronger then I
expected. I dont think it will shake up Joe Six-Pack, but it may make some of
the fence sitters start looking into it a bit more. And they never really said
what the results were of Lubbocks test. Neither did the article I posted about
it. Just says there was one. Not anything about what they found out, what
happened, etc. That worries me-cause if there was no problems, then wouldnt
they have said that?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:33 - ID#386245)
G'day Auric
Got your knickers in a twist, mate? Germans aren't horribly impressed with their new gubmint. What was that about DAX 10,000?? Looks like they'll get to 3000 well before the DOW. Now is a good time to look at market action from 1929 to 1933. Anyone got it handy? History always repeats. The markets may change but the psychology stays the same. Where is Aurapsychologist?? 29-33, mate.

I took my 14 y.o. daughter to see 'The Truman Show' today. Now I'm back to 'The Kitco Show'. Is there a wall at the end of the lake??? Has the director manipulated gold high enough yet?? Just hope the director owns gold shares!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:45 - ID#401460)

"Chrysler will no longer be listed on the S & P exchange. Chrysler is very disappointed, but they are now part of a German company, Daimler Benz." CNBC

Good by M1 Tank?


Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:49 - ID#33184)
"Bye bye American pie" ... $/mark is now 1.6320 !!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 04:59 - ID#401460)
Sharefin - NYNY & Yr2K

My Son ask me about radio/cell phone information yesterday when I ask him why he started to tell me how his wife and he are worried about what might happen Yr2K in New York City.

I was surprised to here this from them, for they would not appear to be survivalist on the surface. There must be and substantial underground current of concern running through the city with regard to this subject.

I forward some of your's and Tolerant's bookmark links on the subject.

I also am now receiving letters of disclaimer from Banks and Insurance Cos.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:00 - ID#240288)
Nick @ 04:33, Dabchick @ 03:59

G'day Nick-- My intro to the DAX had flare and style, but I BOTCHED it by mistyping the URL twice! DAX now down over 8%. Dabchick-- Must say I was startled by the 03:59. Wasn't expecting it until 04:00!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:06 - ID#284255)
Nick @Canabeer@tourist_with_a_stubby_in_his_hand
Dow 29>


Seen "Something About Mary"

I've never seen better ( ;- ) ) )

That hound of speed
The hair so stiff

Must see.
And I'll be off to see "Truman" real soon.

Cheers & salute

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:06 - ID#386245)
Europe in free fall.
Like watching a slow motion movie. The CRASH is already here!!! Viewers are mesmerized and don't recognize it yet.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:08 - ID#401460)
Free Markets No More!

Government controlled or manipulated markets:
Hong Kong

That would then lead one to presume that all markets must not be free now. And, I would guess that the manipulated Gold market is having a problem with knowledge of this fact now becoming wide spread forcing the demand for Gold to surge.

Just my HO.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:09 - ID#185448)
Nick the Aussie:

The look - remember? Now they also know the scent of a big bad bears a**.

Though: I am concerned.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:10 - ID#386245)
I feel a yeehaa coming on
Spot gold over 301. Last time I yeehaaaaaed, gold dropped 6 bucks!! So how about just a little yippie??

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:13 - ID#401460)


Dow may be in for a wild ride. I wonder if they can again artificialy support it today?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:14 - ID#284255)
I must've had one to many??

Seems strange now but investors worldwide are now more worried about their own markets than the almighty Dow.

That was before - this is now.

Watchout below.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:18 - ID#25257)
Gold Up Again
Amazing! The Baart Marquee is working this AM. Price shown checks with actual Gold Spot.
Sharefin, Thanks for the interesting information. "The Times They Are A Changin'"

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:19 - ID#386245)
Fred @ the look
You mean this one, mate??
I have just about given up, because I get 'the look' every time.
Date: Wed Jul 22 1998 04:15
Nick@C ( I got that 'look' again today: ) ID#386245:

You know the one.
The "this guy is crazy" look.

Was checking out a Vanguard generator. 8.8 KVA, Mitsubishi motor, pulls 7000 Watts comfortably. Gonna hook it up with a switch to the household electricity. Enough to run everything but the stove and heaters. If it turns out that I don't need it, this model is the most popular with builders--powers up the whole worksite--so will get good 'near new' resale value.

Anyhow, there I was, inquiring--just couldn't keep my big mouth shut.
"What do you need it for?" he says. Well, I don't need any more of an opening than that. Y2K, electricity, banks, grocery stores, lines, riots, ---you know---ten minutes I went on. That's when I got the 'look'. Even the back office staff came out and listened.

Didn't push my luck and mention the yeller stuff. They would've called for the padded wagon. Only loonies buy THAT stuff.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:20 - ID#284255)
Globex down - down - down
High two hours back 1006.5
Then straight down to 985

A massive drop.

And I mean MASSIVE!!!

Check it out.
Europe on a roll???

Some really bad news is out there or we are at the precipice of a Puetz style crash.

Of to the pub to drink and wonder.

And nurse my pretend puts. ( :- ) ) )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:21 - ID#401460)
Gold now shown on TV

Wow, it is nice to see videos of Gold being moved around on TV news. It is like the media just discovered Gold. Unfortunately, the media is always behind the curve.

S&P 500 DEC98 989.30 -550
EURO $ DEC98 95.0800 +1.5
E-MINI DEC98 989.00B -575


(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:23 - ID#432157)

I see GOLD off .90 am I blind and stupid again????

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:24 - ID#255151)
Everest hedge fund loses 1.3 Billion Dollars

Uh oh! Yale and Brown Universities had money in this fund.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:26 - ID#185448)
Had a meeting yesterday evening, started to smalltalk about yesterdays action in the markets, when one of the guys told me with pride, he had brought all his money ( inherited ) to the bank for "investment". Had no specific idea about where he was invested, just knew money had gone into "austrian investment-funds", but the clerk had assured him, "it is absolutely safe" and "the govt has some kind of liability". I told him en passant about the minus 60% since mid may and about govts liability only in case when a bank goes broke, limited to ATS 200.000. Then I stopped, because the colour of his face had turned into a whiteish green.

Lamb to slaughter, great read by Kurt Vonnegutt, as far as I remember.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:27 - ID#25257)
Try this site

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:28 - ID#240241)
gold up $1.10
nice change from being down almost the same.
predictions for the day anyone? open & close?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:28 - ID#284255)
Globex down - down - down
Lots of critical support levels have just been crashed.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:32 - ID#185448)

Yesch. THE look.
Now: D-Day. Like Deedntitellya.

BTW Tried to get hold of Maples here today. Seven banks - not a single one available. Same with nuggets. Only some big Phillies left.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:39 - ID#288295)
EZ Believer

Thanx for your comments....I guess differing opinions are what make markets. I also own a bunch of RANGY....and I suppose I will continue to sit on it to see what happens - it isn't the first time I've bought something with a lot of promise that went nowhere.

I'm still very leery of stocks ( in general ) right now....who knows how big this building financial crisis could be? Eldorado has it right - there may be a need to be very fleet afoot to unload mining stocks at the right time.

Best O'Luck!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:47 - ID#252391)
London gold 302 silver up 5cents
Quotation systems are doing strange things but these quotes are current and good. Have to revise my earlier perdiction of a lower opening higer close though taking the day as a whole that seems to be the track we've taken.

S&P Golbex still in denial, holding August lows while Europe has sliced through. Have to think some of the yuppie dipster money will be coing out of mutual funds this Friday. Watch for interest rates to fall world wide - watch for bonds to eventually crash as discussed last night so well by Gollum.

Gold's time has arrived - careful remember last Friday.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 05:47 - ID#386245)
Globex still down

I expect the PPT will be in there today so we don't have 3 minus 200 days in a row. Another couple billion of taxpayers money to keep the facade going a few more days. What the hell. It's only paper!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:00 - ID#240241)
I've stayed away from them because of the low float & hardly any volume.
Would think ( thinking could be the problem ) most people new to mining
stocks would be wary of such small companies. But maybe that is all
fixing to change, Volume for both was WAY WAY up yesterday with both
trading over 400,000 shares. Would have been in both had I not looked
back on the volume charts & seen days when few shares traded.
Of course this is a personal opinion only. May jump in today on 1 or
both them.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:01 - ID#386245)
J'burg gold shares up 8.12%

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:06 - ID#280214)
USFS says GPS system not to be relied on after Y2K
The local US Forest Service Office has been notified that any survey or location work they need to do using the GPS must be done before the end of next year. They have been told to assume the GPS system will not work after that. GPS is vital to these folks since they must locate roads, trails, boundaries, etc. all over God's creation without the ability to run survey lines and grids and benchmarks to every nook and cranny.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:07 - ID#348127)

I wouldn't worry too much about the jrs. right now. When DOW drops blow 6000 and money starts hauling @ss into metals, we will see our gold bull and all of the jrs.will fly with the big boys. Only difference is, you will be rewarded better for having the higher risk.
RANGY will likely top $4 as gold reaches 350 level - stop sweating this stock guys. It will be a jewel some day soon.
VISTA GOLD ( VGZ ) is my favorite jr. right now. Looking for $1.50/share as they get cranking
this winter.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:08 - ID#72316)
At quarter end S&P limits were readjusted to 25 points. The way things are going I wonder when they will reach 2.5 points..

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:10 - ID#412286)
"reported that the Central Bank of Italy lost 250 million in the LTCM hedge fund"..The Comment then was "highly unusual for a G-7 Central bank to be invested in a hedge fund.....unless the hedge was an instrument of the PPT.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:12 - ID#386245)
Grabbe this site
when you have some spare time.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:21 - ID#240241)
LOL, *spewing coffee on monitor* Who said that woman had no brains?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:27 - ID#411440)
SPOT GOLD AND SILVER: Spot gold is up about $1.30 right now in
Europe and silver up +4 as it follows along. I still do not like the
look of silver these days. COMEX stocks showed another small increase
yesterday and lease rates for one month silver are down to near the
levels of gold. Not good. Possible return of the silver carry
at hand. End of market, beginning of manipulation down.

My other concern is that silver is overwhelmingly an industrial
rather than precious metal. As world economic activity slumps,
we may see demand for silver also fall off. Those involved in
the silver carry over the past 10 years may never have to pay the

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:36 - ID#386245)
ABX takes out major resistance

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:41 - ID#386245)
North American Miners

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:44 - ID#386245)
Look at Sep't volume for Newmont

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:47 - ID#255151)
Everest Capital Limited

Acording to this guy, it is the sixth largest hedge fund, in terms of assets under management. At least it was.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:47 - ID#390259)
rhody / Silver Lease rates
You wrote: "I still do not like the
look of silver these days. COMEX stocks showed another small increase
yesterday and lease rates for one month silver are down to near the
levels of gold. Not good. Possible return of the silver carry
at hand. End of market, beginning of manipulation down."

Dabchick's 3:59 gives us Silver Lease rares of 3.64 and Gold 1.37. Can you pls clarify that to a layman ?
thanks and regards

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:50 - ID#401460)

Where are you getting your spot Gold price? I keep finding Gold is down 40 or 50 cents, Kitco is still on Oct 1st.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Brazil does not have much strength left. Spectre haunts Latin America

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:52 - ID#401460)

"there may be hundreds of these hedge funds out there with problems" CNBC


(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:55 - ID#29048)
spot quotes are available from yahoo

hit refresh on kitco, the chart should say Oct. 2 6:00 am

december gold is going up using 303.90

Have a great day!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:55 - ID#26793)
Japanese-Asian meltdown feared.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:57 - ID#401460)

$302 +$1.60

Interesting Kitco is more current on other people's sites then they are on their own?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 06:58 - ID#401460)

Thanks a lot!


(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:00 - ID#289357)

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:03 - ID#386245)
You can expose yourself to me...
...for $700,000.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:04 - ID#289357)
Gold near breakout point in the downtrend....
in French Francs, Deutschmarks, British Pound, Swiss Franc

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:04 - ID#411440)
CORRECTION RE SILVER LEASES: Thank you Dabchick for your lease
rate posts. Silver leases jumped 1.10% overnight. It is now up
to 3.64%! This is not the stuff of silver carry. Rather something
has happened in the silver market that is pushing up lease rates
( typical ) before the spot moves very much.

WATCH SILVER I take it all back. This thing is now acting like
its going to blow. UPWARDS.

All this comes from someone who has a perfect record in predicting
the future market trends. Not. But there do seem to be some
positive forces working behind the scenes in the silver market.
Could those small additions to COMEX stocks have been a manipulation?
Lease rates give the opposite story re liquidity.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:06 - ID#183109)
RANGY @ KITCO KRITICS............ :(
I spend hundreds of hours a month researching gold stocks, especially the ones I own. I dont do this for amusement, but to make well-educated selections for my personal portfolio based on facts, not newsletter hype, chat room gossip, or some magical T.A. formula Ive concocted.

With very few exceptions, what matters in the long run is the profitability of the companys in ones portfolio. Im not a day trader and try my best to ignore a tick down or a tick up. I HAVE NO MAGICAL CRYSTAL BALL AND CAN NOT TELL YOU GUYS EVERY DAY WHY RANGY WENT UP OR DIDNT GO UP. It is truly amazing at all the negative posts on down days, but no comments when RANGY is up ( yes Id love to see a few more up days ) .

All I can do is share my research and give my personal opinion on the matter. Im sorry if I let my super-bullishness on RANGY affect my posts. Ive spent hundreds of hours creating a website on RANGY that I hope is useful to RANGY shareholders and potential shareholders. But it really annoys me to continually see a few select KITCO KRITICS spout off with TOTAL DISREGARD for the FACTS. Those of you who are getting so worked up on RANGY not going up, especially compared to the well-publicized Durban, should simply sell at the bottom and be done with it. Then I and everyone else wont have to listen to the whining.

Instead of asking me what Ive asked myself a hundred thousand times, WHAT AM I MISSING, why not spend a few hours and really look at the website Ive created. If you can really find something Ive missed--PLEASE LET ME KNOW. Id love to hear it as would many Kitovites.

Since Kitco is a discussion group, Im more than willing to discuss issues, but rather than blast me with uncalled for comments such as labeling my hard work mis-information, why not stick to discussing the facts? I share all my efforts with the group so that others may stay informed on RANDGOLD. No one is forced to read my posts or anyone elses. It is very easy to skip my postings if you think Im an idiot. No hard feelings here. I dont expect any expression of gratitude, but I would like to keep the discussion constructive.

Before I subject myself to more whining from a few select Kitco KRITICS, have you guys ever considered doing some of your OWN research instead of simply blaming me for your investment decisions? I own a TON of RANGY, proportionally more than anyone at Kitco Id venture to guess, and I dont like down days any more than anyone else, probably less so, but all I can do is base my investment decisions on the FACTS as I know them. Am I being conned or lied to by Randgold Management? I have absolutely no reason to thing so, but if this is the case, may I AGAIN point out that MR. KEBBLE chairs both DURBAN and RANDGOLD?

According to Mark Bristow, tons mined reached a new record level of 4.9 million for the quarter while cash costs were down to $277/oz by June
Gold Dancerregarding your comment of  Maybe their costs are $310 and not $210?  Are you calling Mark Bristow a liar? You do know who Mark Bristow is dont you? Maybe your calender is a month off. It is NOT yet November.

Bristow said the fast-tracking of the Syama upgrade programme was working. A new crusher, open circuit milling, flotation circuit and a new elution plant have been commissioned and an additional SAG mill is scheduled for commissioning by November. The programme is designed to increase production to 270 000 ounces per year while reducing costs to $210/oz.

So, Syama II is expected to drop costs to $210. We wont see this in the quarterly results until March 99, or maybe a bit of an effect in December. I cant guarantee anyone that this goal will be reached, but I can say that they are some 7 months ahead of schedule, and are millions under budget with the project. Do some of you guys think I just pull these figures out of my magic hat? If you ever doubt how or where I get them, why not ask a specific question rather than ignorantly labeling them mis-information. Heres an example of an article from the hundreds Ive collected from the net.

Re-Engineering Saves Millions At Syama
Randgold Resources' Syama gold property in Mali has undergone a re-engineering program designed to reduce costs to US$210/oz. The process of re-engineering has been accelerated through the acquisition of one new SAG and two new second-hand mills. This will allow the second phase of the mine's capital program to be completed seven months ahead of schedule, saving about US$5 million of capex in the process. As well as reducing costs to US$210/oz, the program was designed to increase gold production to 270,000 oz annually. 

Some people continue to bring up the NON-issue of RANDGOLDS working capital. RANDGOLD management has stated over and over and over again that all RANGY assets are available to Randgold Resources to further the development of the junior company. As an example, the ENTIRE SYAMA heap leach project is expected to cost a mere $11.1 million. Need I remind people of the cash payment to RANGY of some $10 Million from SUF? Need I point out again, the 7.5 Million Durban shares, now valued at $27 Million? The list goes on and on, but it is at least clear to me, if no one else, that working capital is simply not an issue with this situation.

Lets say for the sake of argument that R.Res is only able to get costs down to $230 instead of $210. And also lets say that they miss their production target of 270,000 and only mine 240,000 ounces. Combine this with the 50,000 ounces at $130 from the heapleach, and R.Resources 75% of these projects gives us 220,000 ounces at a TOTAL cost of $220 an ounce within the next 9 months. At gold $350, Randgold nets over $28 million from these two projects alone.

What if for some bizarre reason they need to raise some money. Heres a clip from the last underwriting:

In five weeks flat, Randgold raised $48-million through the issue of 7% debentures convertible into Randgold ordinaries at R39,01 in 2001. Flack notes that the calibre of the underwriters - Capels, Rothschilds, Morgan Grenfell and Societe Gnrale, was a vote of confidence in Randgold's credibility overseas. No SA company has issued paper on more favourable terms, and it was pleasing that the issue was four times subscribed. Flack says the value of the issue exceeds the entire market capitalisation of Randgold two years ago when the former management was outvoted.

OK, now that Ive vented some steam, I feel a bit better : )

I certainly enjoy answering reasonable questions, but please, lets lay off the trash. We are all big boys and girls. Im not the Wizard of Ozjust one investor expressing my own opinionthats what a discussion group is for. Thanks, and no hard feelings on my end. GO GOLD, GO RANDGOLD.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:07 - ID#412286)
Employmeny Number
Look for a table pounding strong employment number ( contrived of course ) today as a way to regain confidence. This is why the futures are strengthening through the morning. Some of our biggest up days have been employment number days. If per chance this number comes out weak look out below. But Clinton and Wall St need a strong number so guess what...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:07 - ID#25257)
I second that conclusion: "This thing is about to blow!" Thanks.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
Investors turning to gold

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:14 - ID#401460)
S&P Futures

Well, they are in there supporting the market again! Down from -15 to -2


(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:26 - ID#412286)
High Rise
See my comment below regarding the employment number. Now that we know CB s are involved with rescuing private capital we can now assume govt numbers are and have been contrived to support the markets. Hence the world needs to hear the US IS BOOMING so not to worry and the spin will be that with the low rates the FUTURE IS BRIGHT. This is the only magic bullet left and may explain the lack of cheerleading on the part of Greenspan and Rubin as they KNOW the economic number today will take care of confidence. Job gain 350-400000 and /or unemployment rate falls.Conclusion on CNBC RECESSION FEARS WAY OVER BLOWN DOW SOARS GOLD FALLS. Remember also it is Friday so they want good spin by the talking heads over the weekend. We will see...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:26 - ID#401460)

Thank you for releasing the steam. The URL and information is very helpful.

I may have started the Rangy discussion yesterday, however I certainly did not cast any criticism your way and I did state that I am not selling. I just raised the question, why in such a market would it be down?

They will find RANGY soon, all interest right now is on NEM and ABX.


Free Kiwi
(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:29 - ID#156396)
Ozzie Gold Index up 4.5%
Australian Gold Index up 4.5% today. Up 36% for the month. Wowee. Because the Asian Crisis has devalued the Ozzie Dollar think of Australia as the canary in the coal mine.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:32 - ID#401460)

S&P @ +6 now! They are all lying just like their leader. Now that we see that he can get away with it every one is in the act around the globe.

We live in a false world, and the only true thing may be Gold. Gold may be forcing the truth to the surface.

The Clinton administration has been falsifying the numbers for years.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:33 - ID#390259)
Today's Market Wisdom: What is the difference between the expert's knowledge and that of the layman?

Have Fun !

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:41 - ID#348129)
@Buy THe Dips .......
Remember Abby Cohen Rose said "Buy The Drips"......... HaHaHa

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:42 - ID#401460)
Mr. President

"It is the Economy Stupid, the Global Economy"

S&P 0.90


(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:44 - ID#31868)
Ah, ha ha ha ha, ha, ha, ha , ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha,
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years thered be a shortage of sand. --Milton Friedman

Visit THE FEDeralist at:

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:47 - ID#424424)
APH - What's the Rand McNally look like for today?
SnP, Gold, Silver. What are you doing?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:49 - ID#43185)
It's going to be EXTREMELY interesting to watch silver today. Your view of silver lease rates portends bullishness, but my observation of overnight and early morning futures price movements looks bearish.

I wonder if lease rates could have jumped due to demand for silver to be leased and sold. Not for carry trade nor to cover shorts, but rather to make a killing on silver puts someone has been accumulating?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:52 - ID#31868)

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:54 - ID#289357)
Silver mining at East Coast/Legend in Australia

Current information on progress at the Elizabeth Hill mine:

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:55 - ID#348169)
Thanks for the stock charts. As mentioned by others lately, stocks certainly seem to be presaging a change in the gold bear.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 07:59 - ID#43185)
Terror in Europe
We must continue to keep a leery eye on the bond market. Turmoil overseas is now driving European flight money int0 US bonds/treasuries even as new concerns are being expressed about the drop in the dollar.

Meanwhile, the yen is rising...

Nobody has more treasuries than the Japanese.

With the dollar dropping and the yen rising it becomes more and more attractive to start calling some of that money home, especially since the Japanese are starting to be a little more aggressive in working on asian financial problems. They are going to need some financing....

The water levels are risng in bond lake. Once they reach the top of the dam...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:00 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum et al: I was just about to post this, when I saw your

Silver just got hit by short selling. I guess the jump in lease rates
was a response to demand for shorting ammunition. Silver ( and gold )
are going to have very volotile days as the forces arrayed against
them ( gold/silver carry ) fight to knock them back down. But lease
rates are still up, so in actuality, so are silver and gold prices,
no matter what spot does. See Spot run.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:01 - ID#258427)
SnP Futures just went negative....
Just "turn your back" and the support drys up....Crazy idea anyway trying to run that up...look at Europe burn this morning....

Guess we'll let SnP sink for a while and switch over to trying to hold gold down...heh heh

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:03 - ID#348169)
Tolerant1's Atlantic article - Good Read.
Just a smidgin of the important facts in the Atlantic article:
In 1996 just over four million workers who were
employed part-time said that they wanted to work full-time but
could not find full-time jobs. Nearly 10 million worked full-time
year-round but for less than $7.00 an hour. These two groups
of workers, all of them counted as employed, amount to twice
the seven million workers who held no job and were classified
as unemployed. Together they total 21 million workers, not
seven million.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:05 - ID#255293)
RANGY at this time is under distribution..................
For the last 16 days RANGY has been under solid distribution. Using the TC2000 balance of power shows at this time there are more sellers than buyers.

I would wait until there are a couple of UP days on high volume.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:05 - ID#43185)
After indecisevness through the night, the GLOBEX is turning down.
Bonds mixed, dollar down. Metals mixed. Oil up.

We'll have to check globex again as opening nears.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:05 - ID#289357)
Silver news from

Sept 30,1998
Silver up 11% for month, Sunshine cuts exploration

Silver prices improved during September. Spot silver started the
month at US$ 4.72. Yesterday it hit US$ 5.37, then settled back
today to end at US$ 5.25 -- an advance of over 11% for the 30 days.

The long suffering XAU also moved up strongly during the month. It
closed today at 74.99 -- a gain for September of over 53%.

In other news, Charles Fernandes reported in Monday's
Coeur d'Alene Press that Sunshine Mining of Boise ( NYSE:SSC ) will
halt an exploration project and cut six outside contract miners at its
flagship Sunshine Mine near Kellogg. This is a cost cutting move
brought on by lower silver prices.

Fernandes said production bottlenecks make it unlikely the Sunshine
Mine will reach its targeted production of 6 million ounces of silver
this year; 5.6 to 5.8 million now appears more likely.

He quoted John Simko, Sunshine CEO, as saying the firm has a
cash reserve of US$ 10 million, but will probably seek another
US$ 5 to 10 million in funding - apparently as a cash cushion until
its Pirquitas project in Argentina comes on line.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:06 - ID#298380)
Bill Clinton sale
My wife tells me that JC Penney is having a Clinton sale:
"Panties are half off"

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:10 - ID#401460)
Jimmy Rodgers

He is telling it like it is!
"Mexican Bailout all it did was Adverted a meltdown of Goldman Sachs" JR

YES!, it is just a shell game!!! HR

"Money went to Mexico then to Goldman Sachs and others" JR

Remember that is when Robert Rubin left his job as Vice Chairman if Goldman Sachs and went to work as Sec. of the US treasury, saying to is GS Clients " I hope to continue to represent you even better in my new capacity" RR

"Government should have stayed out of LTC bailout...just a friend of a friend helping a friend..." JR

S&P +2.50

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:13 - ID#344207)
silver futures up .3 cents since ya'll started talking about it.
Hiho silver away!!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:15 - ID#258427)
SnP futures back to positive...
and gold futures back up to 1.1....Man-o-Man, it's hard work moving back and forth trying to keep snP positive and gold down at the same time...Whew!! But, we'll keep trying...heh heh

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:17 - ID#43185)
Morning cont'd
GLOBEX still down, but bonds have turned down now. Dollar still down. Silver looks like it's going to take a big dive. Gold holding, but weak. Oil up.

A moment of drama as we await the openings.

Stock market may be kind of weak at the opening. Some indecisiveness last nigh, although it appears for the moment it will start up down. There has been an awful lot of short interest build up in the last couple of days so we could see some volatility later in the day.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:17 - ID#225220)
I find that the S&P Futures on the Globex are not a reliable indicator until about 8:30ish A.M. Eastern time. That's when the volume comes in and the players position themselves.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:19 - ID#31868)
here is a good page to look at a mix of mining shares quickly...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:21 - ID#43185)
I agree with that. I don't watch the actual values so much as how it moves as morning approaches. If the globex is steadily down all night it tends to stay down, perhaps go even more down as morning approaches. The opposite if it's been up all night.

This morning there has been much back and forth, It happens to be down at the moment, but that won't mean much until the opening.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:26 - ID#43185)
I dunno. I still have a baaaad feeling about silver. I think I will hold off for a bit in accumulating any up positions.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:27 - ID#225220)
Starting to get tough to enter here...
As for putting up some charts.... If we are range bound on the Dow, then can a bear market bounce be far behind? Or is that hazy thing over there the edge of the abyss???

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:29 - ID#258427)
good morning kitco....
Before things get going this morning...could you "jiggle" THE FRAMES for us please....tia...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:30 - ID#225220)
This chart is worth a look at.
Dollar index versus gold. The trend has 'changed'.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:31 - ID#43185)
I see the uncertainty in the market this morning as short term bullish for the equities. We have run out of sellers for the moment, and there are tons of shorts out there.

What often happens is the market will just sit there. Everyone waiting and looking at everyone else to see if it will go down some more. Then comes some covering. Then comes a rush to get covered, which starts to bring in some longs looking for bargains but afraid to buy earlier.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:33 - ID#401460)
Employment numbers

Notice how the S&P Futures moves up to + 9.5+ just before the employment numbers come out, manipulation.

Employment for 4.6% + 69,000 jobs below consensus smallest snce Jan 1996. Slowing down.
Hourly rates increase +$0.01

After posting the last few months about strong employment here, now we are starting to see a slow down.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:36 - ID#288186)
Employment #'s come in weaker than expected, and yet S&P still rising...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:38 - ID#26350)
Blanchard's Conference
Is Wednesday-a-Week, the 14th through the 18th this month, his Silver Jubilee of workshops, roundtables, speeches and some good fun in N'Orleans LA. Hope they have a network connection in the Market Place as it is $30 for a half hour to boot up at the Hyatt Business Office. The New Moon in October ( Mahalaksmhi's Day of Wealth Celebration ) is actually the Tuesday after that, October 20th, which would begin in India on Monday evening in the US filling the Hindu temples with offerings of gold, silver, incense, flowers and good will for times ahead. I'm putting in a bid ( and predicting ) that we go on to an International Gold Standard by another 14 years ( from Jim's first conference date ) . --40 years ( a full mandala ) of his good work for the cause of sound money. Forty years traditionally offers an opportunity to reap a full harvest. Regards, Lakshmi.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:38 - ID#225220)
If you look at the first chart that I posted of the Dow, one of two things come to mind. The first is that we could be starting the third leg down from here. The second is that we may be testing the previous lows for support. Take you pick and place your bets.

On chart number two for this morning, the U.S. dollar index versus comex spot gold, it's clear that some kind of topping action or respite is happening. Either the picture for gold has changed and the dollar is headed lower ( with gold going UP ) OR the mighty buck goes to infinity in value and the great depression begins.... Hmmmm.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:43 - ID#31868)

In the BIG news this week, Mr. Clinton was busy taking
credit for what he claims to be the first budget surplus
since 1969. Of course, there is no surplus, merely a smaller
deficit after Social Security receipts, which ostensibly go
into a trust fund, are counted as revenue for the general
budget. Almost $100 billion was borrowed from Social
Security this year, which means the much-touted $70 billion
surplus is still a $30 billion deficit.

I will insist that we reserve the entire surplus until
we have seized this historic opportunity to save Social
Security, said Mr. Clinton. This laughable rhetoric is
this decades most deceitful political doublespeak. All of
Mr. Clintons budget proposals have taken Social Security
revenues and used them for social ( read Sociocratic )
spending programs.

While Congressional Republicans share some credit for
having held the line on budget expenditures, the vast
majority of deficit reduction is due to increased revenue
from a booming economy, particularly realized capital gains
on stocks and other securities. In other words, Mr. Clinton
is correct to claim most of the credit because he imposed
the biggest tax increases in our history, and those taxes
now consume the highest percentage of our income in history.

Setting his sights on spending the surplus, Mr. Clinton
told the Congressional Black Caucus that the future of his
administration has enormous consequences for how we
distribute the bounty of America. While his effort to
centralize economic distribution is not news to our readers,
it is not very often that this quintessential Sociocrat uses
words that succinctly define what he believes to be the role
of his administration and our government -- to distribute
the bounty of America.

He went on to insult black Americans across the country
by saying, I want to thank you for standing up for me and
understanding the true meaning of repentance and atonement.
The caucus chairwoman, Rep. Maxine Waters, said, We support
Bill Clinton at this critical moment in his career. It is
because African-Americans are uniquely qualified to know
unfairness when we see it.

Speaking of black Americans, Alveda King, niece of the
late Martin Luther King, announced she is leaving the
Democratic party for higher ground with the Republicans. It
is time for African-American conservatives to emerge into
the light of the new day of the coming millennium and speak
out for the values that the Republican Party so
wholeheartedly embraces, said Miss King.

And speaking of kings, Alexander Hamilton had this to say
in Federalist No. 69: The President of the United States
would be liable to be impeached, tried, and upon conviction
of treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors,
removed from office; and would afterwards be liable to
prosecution and punishment in the ordinary course of law.
The person of the King of Great Britain is sacred and
inviolable: There is no constitutional tribunal to which he
is amenable, no punishment to which he can be subjected
without involving the crisis of a national revolution. We
checked, and despite Mr. Clintons assertions to the
contrary, he is not a king.

Visit THE FEDeralist at:

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:43 - ID#225220)
Judging by the employment report... The market will be expecting that 'other' 25 basis point rate cut now.... Alan, please take to the podium...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 08:53 - ID#401460)

Regarding Kitco slowdown


I have a theory that when we post, we should first compose our note on a word processing application, use spell check , then post on Kitco. My guess is, that when we hold the posting window open to long, this tends to slow Kitco down. If two or three of us are trying to post at the same time it must put a burden on the system.

I first noticed this when I was having difficulty trying to get on several times; I noticed it was usually when some one was placing a large post that maybe had been composed with the window open all of the while they were composing their note.

And a little while ago, after I posted, I saw where some were having a problem getting on ....... and maybe I had the window open to long.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 09:36 - ID#255226)
vhale - sleepless nights
This volatilty is keeping me awake at night. I took 15 points out of the SnP last night. This market could have a reflex rally at anytime if so resistance is the bottom of the recent trading range currently 1030-1035. The bottom support is the 960 area. Right now I'm short at 1004. Dec Gold is holding above the weekly down channel today could go to 309-310. I've read that a leading indicator of the grain complex is the Oat market. I bought Oats yesterday.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 09:42 - ID#255226)
vhale - sleepless nights
This volatilty is keeping me awake at night. I took 15 points out of the SnP last night. This market could have a reflex rally at anytime if so resistance is the bottom of the recent trading range currently 1030-1035. The bottom support is the 960 area. Right now I'm short at 1004. Dec Gold is holding above the weekly down channel today could go to 309-310. I've read that a leading indicator of the grain complex is the Oat market. I bought Oats yesterday.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Oct 02 1998 09:43 - ID#287367)
@ Tolerant 1
Yours of 8:43 is right on! I'll probably be unpopular at this site for saying so, but I wasn't quite ready to see the Golden Train leave the station just yet. I haven't done accumulating my precious, and I wanted one more chance to get DROOY under $2.50 and SGOLY under $2.50 :- )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 09:57 - ID#270221)
@The Skeptical Investor
All: There is an excellent article about LTCM at

Except that the author is perhaps underestimating how much trouble there is going to be in the rest of the so-called "hedge" fund industry, I agree with what he says in full. ESPECIALLY his first rule! Max

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:00 - ID#35571)
Could be, but remind me to tell you about NASA's chickens sometime when there is more bandwidth.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:01 - ID#424424)
APH - what is your email address?
Email me at with your email address.....

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:03 - ID#348286)
@December Gold 304.1 +2.00 +0.7%
Shorts are Sh*tting......

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:04 - ID#401460)
Our Leader Speaks

He is turning everything into a political battle. He now begins to place all of his world economic screw ups on the Republicans.

He will save us, if we give him a chance, and will later ask for a 3rd term. He is going to meet with the world leaders, IMF, etc.

More talk of setting up a new world agency.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:07 - ID#411320)
Gold awakens for slumber
Go gold

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:07 - ID#31868)
HighRise, Namaste' YOU GOT THAT RIGHT...
it is an insult to pigs to call Clintler one...get him out of OUR HOUSE!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:10 - ID#348286)
@LTCM --- Is/Was Short Gold
A Hedge Fund manager was interviewed on CTV news this morning.
In a quick phrase that I almost missed, he said that LTCM was short Bullion......
If this is true, then the "Gold Media Bias" has been demonstrated beyond doubt. The media fully reports the short postion on LTCM Treasuries, but continues to "Make No Mention" of LTCM's position in
Gold Bullion. This is "OUTRIGHT BIAS", constructed to keep ordinary investors in the dark, and not give them any reason to get into Gold.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:11 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya from a little further East...God's good
green Earth...balanced budget...surplus...the sheeple are idiots...yup!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:11 - ID#401460)

He is now setting Congress up - blackmail either fund the IMF or else it's your fault. He is placing blame on Congress for not funding the IMF.

What a set up! This Guy is going to get away with it. Congress delay on $18 billion is the reason the world is collapsing.

Like $18 Billion will solve the problem. The lying Ba*tard is scary.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:13 - ID#410196)
Mr. Clinton on CNBC on world economy.


Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:15 - ID#432157)
Rumor-Bay Street Boys-heard yesterday

LTCM is short between 100-400 TONS GOLD-ONLY A RUMOR.

Does anybody have any sources that are more accurate ?????

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:16 - ID#431200)
The consortium took 90% of the fund, leaving its original investors with a 10% in LTC
How a Phone Call Set the Rescue Effort Into Motion By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff WriterFriday, October 2, 1998; Page F01
On a humid day at the end of August, about a week after Russia's debt default sent markets reeling, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William J. McDonough's telephone rang with more disturbing news: A huge, speculative fund that invested money for rich people and large institutions was in trouble -- and needed help fast.
The call to McDonough, whose job makes him a key guardian of the securities markets' well-being, came from two people he knew well: John W. Meriwether, the legendary bond trader who was forced to leave Salomon Brothers Inc. in 1991 in the wake of a bond-trading scandal, and David W. Mullins Jr., a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and a major architect of President Bush's bailout of the savings and loan industry.
Now, McDonough was told that the investment fund Meriwether, Mullins and 14 other well-respected securities traders managed -- Long-Term Capital Management L.P. of Greenwich, Conn. -- might need its own rescue.
McDonough described the telephone call and other events leading up to Long-Term Capital's rescue last week in unusually detailed testimony yesterday before the House banking committee. He and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who also testified, gave the first public accounting of how the Fed orchestrated the $3.6 billion infusion of cash into Long-Term Capital from a consortium of the fund's major lenders -- a veritable who's who of Wall Street's biggest investment and commercial banks.
Much of the following account comes from McDonough's testimony and other interviews.
On Sept. 2, a few days after the call to McDonough, Meriwether sent letters to investors saying, "August has been very painful to us." On Aug. 1 the firm had equity -- the cash put up by investors, including the partners -- of $4.1 billion. By the end of the month it had fallen to $2.3 billion. Twenty-one days later, it had fallen to $600 million.
That meant that 90 percent of the fund's equity had been wiped out as investments -- based on complex computer models involving securities traded in markets across the globe -- soured, forcing the fund to pony up cash to cover transactions or to increase collateral held by its lenders, who had extended more than $100 billion to the fund.
McDonough, meanwhile, was calling up or receiving calls from top officials at such Wall Street firms as Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs & Co., Bear, Stearns & Co. and Bankers Trust Corp., who described what they perceived to be a growing problem at Long-Term Capital.
In early September, Long-Term Capital partners called McDonough to notify him of their on-going attempts to raise new money from several investment firms. But by Friday, Sept. 18, those efforts had led nowhere.

"Events seemed to have come to a head," McDonough told lawmakers yesterday. "Everyone I spoke to that day volunteered concern about the serous effect the deteriorating situation of Long-Term Capital could have on world markets."

That same day, officials at Long-Term Capital said they would like to present detailed information about the fund's condition to the Fed.
McDonough contacted Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and the three decided a visit by federal officials to the fund's headquarters was needed. That Sunday, Peter Fisher, who heads the Feds market division, and Assistant Treasury Secretary Gary Gensler went to Greenwich to meet with fund partners. The partners outlined the problems at the fund and the impact its impending bankruptcy could have on national and world markets.
Armed and alarmed with this knowledge, Fisher arranged for officials from Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan & Co. -- the firms the Fed believed had the greatest understanding of the situation and could sustain some of the biggest potential losses from the fund's collapse -- to meet on Tuesday, Sept. 22. Eventually an official from the Swiss Bank UBS AG, which also had a large financial interest in the situation, joined the other three firms.

They split into three groups to study possible solutions. One group came up with the idea of putting together a takeover of the fund by a dozen or so of the largest of the fund's 75 creditors, and it seemed the most feasible approach, McDonough told lawmakers.

At 7 p.m. that Tuesday, officials from the four firms met at the Fed's offices in New York and drew up a draft of what would become the consortium's $3.6 billion takeover package.

By 8:30, representatives from nine other creditors arrived to join the discussion. Fisher from the Fed "explained the importance of avoiding" a fire sale of Long-Term Capital's assets, which could disrupt markets by severly depressing prices and further eroding already shaken investor confidence.

The group eventually broke up, agreeing to meet the next day, Wednesday, Sept. 23, at 10 a.m. at the Fed's offices.

Shortly before the 10 a.m. meeting began, McDonough, who had been away in London and had returned late the night before, learned that billionaire investor Warren Buffett, Goldman Sachs and American International Group Inc. were interested in buying Long-Term Capital for $250 million.

The 10 a.m. meeting was rescheduled for 1 p.m. to see if that bid would work out in solving the Long-Term Capital crisis. The Fed supplied sandwiches, coffee and cakes.

By 12:30 p.m., the Buffett group withdrew its bid.

According to a source close to Long-Term Capital, Buffett, Goldman and AIG were told that legally they could not buy Long-Term Capital because the fund's partners technically didn't own the investment fund but merely managed it for its owners -- those people who had invested money in the fund. That included, of course, Long-Term Capital's partners -- and even many executives at the investment firms working out the rescue.

So 14 of the banks and securities firms that had assembled earlier reassembled in the Fed offices to hammer out the main components of the rescue, with 11 firms eventually agreeing to put in $300 million each and three others agreeing to ante up smaller amounts.

By Monday, Sept. 28, the final details were settled and the consortium took possession of 90 percent of the fund, leaving its original investors, including the partners who had steered it into near bankruptcy, with a 10 percent stake in Long-Term Capital.

 Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:17 - ID#31868)
I tried...I really tried...but it is no use...Clintler and Camdesuss suk...nuff said...I say
if one of our fine young men and women dies as a result of sending them to battle...I say he should hang for treason...Coward Erect/hypocrite...

And Camdesuss...I have unchained the hound...GET CAMDESUSS...and every member of Congress that votes to send more money to the IMF should be voted out of office...yup...

Now...where is that camo sombrero...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:21 - ID#373403)
Orderly liquidation of positions
Bond prices up ( yields down )
Equity markets down
Precious metals up

Sure looks like the opposite of the positions likely held by LTCM and other copycat funds. Take that shorts, and that, and that!

The long-term unwinding fund.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:21 - ID#401460)

CNBC talking heads don't seem to be accepting Clinton Pep Talk, however just wait tonight on the evening news the average guy on the street will be fe a line of bull about IMF funding delay caused the world to collapse.

Interesting that the market has sold off after the President's press conference. -81.88


(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:22 - ID#31868)
Where can I get a list of people and companies that donated money to Clintler?
Not one more penny from me for them...their films or products...NONE!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:25 - ID#45173)
One word: hysteresis. That got us to Wed. Wed. I predicted three down days Wed, Thu, Fri. New word: momentum. I'm in the minority on this, but I expect we close today below 7500.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:28 - ID#31868)
political instability...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:33 - ID#173148)
Letting Profits Run?
Some reasons to hold, not trade, gold equities:

"The trend is your friend."

An opinion from Deutsche Morgan Grenfeld sometime ago stated "The dollar may be a safe haven against political instability, but clearly not a haven from financial market instability."

Heavy share volumes in gold equities indicates new investor/trader interest from other than gold bugs.

There may not be a good reason to sell gold equities now other than to suggest that the XAU has overreached itself versus the POG.

What other factors argue for ( or against ) letting profits run?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:37 - ID#348169)
Break-Out Imminent?
Do my eyes deceive me or is spot gold about to break through the top line ( resistance ) of it's long term downtrend?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:39 - ID#348127)
Trick or Treat

I missed something. What happened about 3 hours ago that caused European markets to recover and SnP futures to go positive? We couldn't possibly have the PPT having their pagers going off early in the morning tell them to throw money at foreign markets could we.
Oh well doesn't matter, looks like Slick Dick stuck his foot in his mouth campaining for IMF monnies. Put a little scare into the market for them to hear their pres. talk about Global problems.
Hang tough Goldbugs
Da witching hour draws near.
All you have to do is go BOO
to those greedy folks trying to milk one last penny out of that dead bull on wall street and they run and hide.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:40 - ID#348127)
Trick or Treat

I missed something. What happened about 3 hours ago that caused European markets to recover and SnP futures to go positive? We couldn't possibly have the PPT having their pagers going off early in the morning tell them to throw money at foreign markets could we.
Oh well doesn't matter, looks like Slick Dick stuck his foot in his mouth campaining for IMF monnies. Put a little scare into the market for them to hear their pres. talk about Global problems.
Hang tough Goldbugs
Da witching hour draws near.
All you have to do is go BOO
to those greedy folks trying to milk one last penny out of that dead bull on wall street and they run and hide.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:40 - ID#348127)
Trick or Treat

I missed something. What happened about 3 hours ago that caused European markets to recover and SnP futures to go positive? We couldn't possibly have the PPT having their pagers going off early in the morning tell them to throw money at foreign markets could we.
Oh well doesn't matter, looks like Slick Dick stuck his foot in his mouth campaining for IMF monnies. Put a little scare into the market for them to hear their pres. talk about Global problems.
Hang tough Goldbugs
Da witching hour draws near.
All you have to do is go BOO
to those greedy folks trying to milk one last penny out of that dead bull on wall street and they run and hide.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:41 - ID#327123)
@ POLARBEAR, your 7:06 post
A month or so ago I posted that the major mines would move first followed by the jr's. History proves it.

There is alot of good information that hits this forum but there are a few who like to challenge almost every word that is written here. A good example is the way Puetz has been treated here. His prognosis had timing problems but he didn't deserve the attacks he received.

Thank you for the efforts you have put in the new RANGY site. One could not ask for more availability of information...Tom

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:41 - ID#348127)
Trick or Treat

I missed something. What happened about 3 hours ago that caused European markets to recover and SnP futures to go positive? We couldn't possibly have the PPT having their pagers going off early in the morning tell them to throw money at foreign markets could we.
Oh well doesn't matter, looks like Slick Dick stuck his foot in his mouth campaining for IMF monnies. Put a little scare into the market for them to hear their pres. talk about Global problems.
Hang tough Goldbugs
Da witching hour draws near.
All you have to do is go BOO
to those greedy folks trying to milk one last penny out of that dead bull on wall street and they run and hide.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:42 - ID#401460)
Gold ( CMX )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:44 - ID#401460)
tsclaw (@ POLARBEAR, your 7:06 post)

Yes, and I liked it so much I went out and bought another 1000 shares @ 11/16

I figure at some point it will be an easy double my money play.

Thanks again for the information.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:44 - ID#348169)
There have been some great charts here this morning. Free Kiwi's at 7:29 this AM is beautiful!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:48 - ID#434108)
Gold's momentum is building for an accelerating advance.
Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:58
goldfevr ( Gold mining stocks continue to lead gold higher. ) ID#432170:
Copyright  1998 goldfevr All rights reserved
XAU up 5.73% today, and rising 60% in less than 6 wks.
Today's action -- increasing volume with rising share-prices --
adds more "fuel to the fire" -- more evidence
of the gold bull-market pressure building.
Earlier in the week I suggested that we were witnessing the
last chance to buy gold below $300.00.
( See my re-copied comments, below. )
Today, Thur. Oct. 1, the closing markets in gold mining stocks,
and in gold & gold futures, confirm
the completion of gold's base-building period.
Its backing & filling pattern since late last year...
-- both above & below $300/oz. --
is now a completed base or foundation,
for a new, long-term bull market in gold investments.

Gold will march thru the $300 range, and find itself at $400/oz.,
in perhaps less time than what most could have imagined possible.
10/1/98 ( intraday )
XAU & mining shares holding early gains...good-bye gold below $300.

Next advance in gold is due now. JSE & XAU both closed near their
highs, on Monday. Since the end of August, there has been a pattern
of surging volume ... in gold stocks, coupled with persistent
Gold is now due to break thru the mythological barrier of
$300/oz., for good.
Last chance to buy it below $300.00 is.....'history'.

9/28/98 mining stocks again leading the next advance
in gold, which will take it thru the $300.00 "barrier".
XAU's near-term target is 80.

Gold's bull market ( is ) at "LIFTOFF"....The new bull market
chapter in gold is just beginning.

Sept. 3rd & 4th's accelerating share prices in mining stocks
on 3 to 5 times average daily volume, set's the stage...
the fuse is lit.... ( in gold's new bull market )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:49 - ID#227238)
No, it's not a problem of your much noted presbyopia. ... {:- ) ) For the first time in roughly 2 years and 9 months, gold is solidly out of its downtrend channel ...... on a monthly basis. Still lots of room for it to trip over its own feet but, it looks solid for now.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:51 - ID#428142)

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:52 - ID#288186)
DEC GOLD@ 305.30//DEC SILVER@ 5.285//DEC S&P500 @ 984.00
Silver sure isn't acting as strong as Gold is...Maybe it's those
stubborn shorts, still trying to keep it down. Of course, the same goes
with Gold. It should be hitting above 315 by now, IMHO...Fox-man

(Fri Oct 02 1998 10:55 - ID#432130)
Dow closing...
At about 7500 today. 6400 by end of October!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 11:03 - ID#208393)
Stock Splits
All: - any idea how often Microsoft, Dell, AOL, Yahoo, etc have split during the last 8 years? Once they unravel a 50% drop in one day would not be surprising. Compared to these tulips, gold stock performance has been dismal.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 11:03 - ID#333126)
heya kitcoites
US$ moving down against major currencies again today...

europe sure looks ugly tonight ( like yesterday, sorta )

hmm... US job news from the BBC

Nick@C - you're welcome to come stay with me in Kluang if things get too hairy around here. just make sure you dare fly off during those interesting times!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 11:35 - ID#212197)
Investment Priorities
Here are my own priorities for non 401k related investment. ( I moved my 401K funds about one year ago to the T-bill based "Stable Fund" of T.Row Price ) .

1/3 in physical gold ( i.e., one ounce gold coins; besides that I had bought 50 1/10th ounce eagles, just in case. ) This is the absolutely savest and best investment possible. I wich I wouldn't have so much the mentality of a "market gambler" and would be mentaly capable of increasing this position to 50% or 2/3 of my total investment. ( I'm working on a shift into this direction very hard. )

50% in gold mining stocks. ( That includes also some silver mining, as is automatically given with TVX; unfortunately, I'm also into juniors and bought them too early. But that will work out with the rising gold price. )

With the rest I'm into the commodity futures market.
Right now I'm trying to jump on the S&P5000 train with ( mini ) shorts.
The difference between placing a put option and installing a short position is quite something. To place a put option it is best to do it when the market goes temporarily into an uptrend. Best for a few days. But that might not happen anymore.
With opening a short position I have to catch the train running south, and never without stop. I wish I would have done this two days ago, but my funds were not wired yet. I only could afford an additional S&P100 put option at that time. Chances to chatch the train during movement in the right direction were never better than right now. I think that's the right time for small guys like myself to enter the risk. If I had enough funds in place I would just put another short into place at a better price, in case the initial market movement would go against me. But I can't afford this. And I can't be stopped out too often either!

The problem with S&P put options is that the premium is too high these days.
When you place a short at the right time you can make much more money right at the beginning.

Nevertheless, if you start trading the futures market, start with options. Then you know exactly what your maximum risk is.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 11:48 - ID#288232)

the golden one.........doing that which it could not do....

it appears as though the tasmanian devil---gold---
has escaped his paper-cage....the cage was built
of deceit and lies...the tasdel--tasmanian devil--
has some @ss to whup......and a mountain to climb
to re-claim his lofty perch on high...the mountain
awaits...the current residents in an absolute state
of decay...the houses, made of cellulose are tattered,
and an ill wind blows from the east....the tasdel rides
upon the eddies of the gale blowing chaos and flux to the
four corners of the earth....the peopleo are trans-fixed as
though fixated by the cobra....WHOP! two neat holes between the
eyes...they saw it coming....and WATCHED it happen.

billions of peopleo for fodder....the cannons await the orders
of the few........for the benefit of the the
expense of the many. as it has always it is now.

today is a good day..........a good day to die.

the mantra of hundreds of millions of religous of religous
zealots......all believing the west is the great satan....

what do you believe? and why?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:15 - ID#350179)
It must be Friday
DOW floating gently to 7700 ( well stair-stepping ) Lever time?
XAU Updrafting as well 81.62

Turkey, Syria In Undeclared War: Army Chief

Looking sideways to not get run over : )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:16 - ID#335379)
Hello Cherokee: What sir are some good oil picks for the coming oil patch ride?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:31 - ID#350179)
High-stakes action seen on Brazil

Dennis said the international package could amount to some $30-50 billion, of which the IMF might contribute $5-7 billion with the rest coming from other multilaterals and central banks.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:44 - ID#424231)
spz the bulls will sleep well this weekend
1011 ppt to the rescue?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:44 - ID#424231)
spz the bulls will sleep well this weekend
1011 ppt to the rescue?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:47 - ID#269128)
DERIVATIVES FIREBALL!!!!! UBS Loses .$1.6 bill
Friday October 2 4:51 AM EDT

Chairman of Swiss Bank Resigns

ZURICH, Switzerland ( AP ) _ The chairman of UBS AG, the Swiss banking giant that said it will lose 2.2 billion Swiss francs ( $1.61
billion ) due largely to its involvement in a troubled private U.S. investment fund, resigned Friday.

In a press release, Mathis Cabiallavetta said ``the conviction that I can prove my service to the bank with this step moved me to do this.''
Cabiallavetta declined any ``financial arrangement,'' the bank's chief executive officer Marcel Ospel said.

Three other top UBS executives are also leaving, the announcement said. Ospel wouldn't discuss possible remuneration for them because of
contractual terms.

Last Thursday, UBS said it would incur a 950 million franc ( $699 million ) write down on its exposure to Long Term Capital Management,
which with other losses will lead to a third quarter after tax-loss of up to 1 billion francs ( $735 million ) .

An internal inquiry uncovered lapses by responsible managers in controls and decisions before and after the merger, UBS said. It found no
signs that any of the persons involved acted with gross negligence, the bank added.

UBS said transactions like LTCM won't happen again. Ospel called its LTCM involvement an extremely complex case in which risk was
``very underestimated.''

He said the three executives were aware of that and thus left the bank, but said Cabiallavetta wasn't aware of all the risks involved. Ospel
said the bank will learn lessons and improve risk controls.

Part of the problem in reconstructing the LTCM case, Ospel said, was that the fund only updated its partners once a month.

For a time, he said, ``we were flying blind.''

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:51 - ID#289357)
FOX-MAN @ silver weakness; gold/silver ratio
This could be from traders going long gold and short silver. The gold/silver ratio is a fairly predictable trading tool, and resistance levels are found frequently at even - 10's ( 50, 60, 70 ) and also at the halfway levels between them ( 55, 65 ) .

The other day it reversed and went north at 55, and has twice recently reversed at 60. Watch for another reversal at 60 ( current ratio = 57.9 basis December futures ) .

This ratio could go up to about 70 or so, and still maintain the long-term downtrend, so the 60 level bears watching closely.

You can get a good long-term chart of this ratio at:

or use this site:

and enter GCZ8 /SIZ8 in the symbols block, with a space between GCZ8 and the /.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:55 - ID#228128)
Whats goin on here
At our markets' openings Germany was down 7% , UK 3%, and red ink otherwise everywhere else. Bonds yields have been falling all day. The NASDAC was down more than 50 points from its morning high. Yet the DOW and SnP stage a rally into positive territory. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but if this keeps up I may reconsider.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:55 - ID#219363)
Shades of 87
Not a suggestion - but if I were holding equities, I'd be selling everything I had right now while the buyers are out. This graph looks really familiar.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 02 1998 12:59 - ID#430221)
1. As it was me who asked the question about "misinformation"
on RANGY let me first apologize if I hurt your feelings. I was
guilty of blowing off frustration which was unfair to you. It was not
right, I was wrong.

2. You have done an amazing amount of work on the RANGY site. It
is the best site I have ever come across on a gold mine. I at least should have mentioned this in my post. Your talents are apparent.

3. My girl friend and I own a total of 32,000 shares so we both
would like for things to work out.

4. You ask whether the officers could be lying to you and that this
seemed a remote possibility. I agree. However, I have been lied to several
times before and one time it cost me $95,000. Shareholder reps. of
First Capital Holdings and Shearson Lehman both lied to every one on the
state of affairs resulting in Sherson just walking away from their
resonsibilities at FCH. They lied all the way down to the end. So it is
a fact of life that Corporate types lie all the time. So when I see
something that does not seem right, I question it. But I should not
have taken it out on you in the way that I did. Frustration.

5. We really won't know for some time whether their gold mine will
work out but it seems as though it will. If you are correct in your
figures RANGY is the most undervalued of any gold stock in the world
right now. That is why we bought so much of it. I hope to recover
all the money I lost years ago with First Capital Holdings. But it
makes me very nervous to have so much money is a stock that doesn't
rise when others in the same group are doubling. I hope you can
understand that.

Regards and thanks for the web site. Gold Dancer

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:04 - ID#432130)
Market predictions...
This very volatile market is unique in history. By that I mean the world markets are tied together like never before in history. I believe for that reason "charts" and "historical predictions" cannot be accurate. This is why our "bearish" position on the market sometimes makes us look stupid when our predictions dont work out. FORGET past methods of market predictions; We can stand confidently firm on the fact that the market WILL CRASH due to international volativity and speculative greed. We may make incorrect market predictions in the short run, but the crash IS COMING. If not during the next few months, then definitely by next spring. In the mean time the best case senario is a BEAR MARKET until the crash.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:04 - ID#269128)
How about abolishing usurous interest rates, Mr. Rubin?
Friday October 2 6:43 AM EDT

U.S. Treasury Chief Proposes Global Financial Reforms

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has outlined four market-oriented proposals, including better oversight of
global capital flows, to deal with the crisis rocking financial markets around the world.

Rubin told an audience of Wall Street bankers and analysts Thursday that global markets needed ``new openness in international finance''
and ``more soundly based capital flows.''

Rubin also cited the need for stronger national financial systems with better oversight of foreign investments in emerging markets. He added
that ``finally, responses to crises must include appropriate private-sector involvement and new financing mechanisms to combat contagion.''

The Treasury chief also reiterated the importance of ''reforms of the International Monetary Fund and the other international financial
institutions'' and said the Group of Seven major industrial nations needed ``to promote sound policies and growth'' and ``help build the
foundations of private sector-based economies in developing countries.''

``As I have already mentioned, the IMF itself also needs to be more transparent,'' Rubin said.

Stressing that ``industrialized nations, both individually and as a group ... have significant responsibilities,'' Rubin called on G7 nations to
``act to maintain stability and growth in our economies as a source of strength for the rest of the world.''

The finance ministers and central bankers of the G7 nations are convening Saturday in Washington.

The IMF/World Bank meeting will be held next week, and market speculation is building up about measures that may come out of either
meeting to help pull global financial markets out of their morass.

One speculation is that the G7 may support some form of short-term capital controls in emerging markets. Another is that other industrial
nations may lower their short-term interest rates in the wake of the Federal Reserve's slight easing of U.S. monetary policy this week by
trimming the U.S. federal funds rate.

``Appropriate regulation of capital markets is one thing, wholesale distortions of them is quite another,'' said Rubin, a former partner at
Goldman, Sachs and Co., while commenting on broad capital controls.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:06 - ID#333126)
you heard of Everest?
the hedge fund not the mountain, of course.

sleep time. hope to wake up and find that you guys kept the PPT from pushing the index up too much. :- )

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:09 - ID#333126)
oh, while i'm on the subject of keeping the market steady
Gollum - could you tell me before you pull the plug on those T-bonds? that's one lever that I want to know about before any major tugs go on...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:09 - ID#421269)
Critical time

The fed is bringing all it's awesome power to bear. Huge short positions are on the verge of unwinding, the market is on shakey ground, and people are seeing gold as a possible hedge .

If fresh buying comes in, it might get us over the hump, but the powers that be will do anything to keep gold from rising, as this would be the final nail in the coffin of the not so mighty DOW.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:09 - ID#269128)
Where did all these "econmiesters" study?
I cannot believe for all the "commentaries" and opinions on the golbal meltdown by a huge array of "learned" experts on such matters not one has come close to the real FUNDAMENTAL cause.

It is the FLUCTUATION of the currencies that is causing the problem! It is not a symptom of whatever other theory you could cook is the one common factor...thus it is the CAUSE not the effect....duhhhhh!

Friday October 2 11:41 AM EDT

Crisis Drags Down World Economies


NEW YORK ( AP ) _ Not since the early 1980s have so many countries been in recession.

As the global financial crisis has spread, the economies of more and more countries have been dragged down, with a few possibly skidding
into a damaging depression.

The turbulence that began more than a year ago in the currency and stock markets of Southeast Asian nations has since spread to Russia and
is now threatening Latin America. Only North America and Western Europe have so far been spared.

``About 40 percent of the world economy is either in or heading into a recession,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief international economist at
Standard & Poor's DRI in Lexington, Mass.

Today, President Clinton said the United States bears a heavy responsibility to lead the world ``back away from this financial precipice.''

``We know we are going into an unprecedented time,'' the president said on the South Lawn of the White House. He said half the world is
in recession or experiencing very low economic growth.

``We don't have to have a worldwide recession if those of us that enjoy growth will take the initiative and move now. But we just _ we
cannot afford to dally around here.''

The causes of the global financial crisis are as varied as the countries themselves. But some of the common problems are heavily indebted
banking systems, overvalued currencies, lofty government spending and excessive reliance on foreign loans.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:16 - ID#43185)
DOW +109

Markets doing much as expected this morning. Now we wonder what the last hour is going to be like, Especially the last twenty minutes.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:19 - ID#350179)
Another hairline crack
Cargill suffers losses in Russian market

Several observers with knowledge of Cargill Financial's activities in Russia estimate that the damage could run to $200 million -- equal to almost half of Cargill's entire profit for its most recent fiscal year -- the Star Tribune reported Friday.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:31 - ID#43185)

There are three major things holding the bod market up.

1 ) Panic in Europe ( and still some in Asia and South America )

2 ) Expectation of continued rate easings by the Fed

3 ) Expectation of economic slowdown in US

I could add a fourth one having to do with expectaions of deflation, but I don't think it's a big one.

As panic subsides we will begin to see some movement out of bonds.
If the economy fails to slow, the expectation of the Fed continuing to lower rates will also subside with it.

The rates are way overblown right now, so the exodus is not likely to be a pretty one.

The wildcard is how fast the dollar declines. If the expected rate of decline of the dollar outstrips the expected rate of rate cuts by the Fed, especially after the panic begins to cool and bondholder begin to think rationally again....Well, it won't be pretty.

Another factor is gold is going up. This give bond holders another place for flight from a declining dollar.

Alltogether, I would say the big thing will be how red the numbers are in the overnight overseas markets. That's as good a panic guage as any.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:35 - ID#350179)
Hush-hush hedge funds coming out

You don't have to be a rocket-scientist to lose money in this market, but ( apparently ) it helps.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:39 - ID#410194)
Don't forget to answer my yesterday's question when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:40 - ID#43185)

I kind of wonder about those economeisters myself. It seems that for months, we at Kitco have been aware of the hot money hurricane caused by high real interest rates in the US.

This provided the differentials that allowed the various carry trades to operate and suck the life from overseas economies.

Which in turn pumped up the bull market boom, and promoted the growth of high-leverage financial enterprises like LTCM.

Inasmuch as bust follows boom, once everything was sucked as dry as could be, it was no surprise that the high leveraging of virtual wealthe would collapse.

The Japanes threw gas on the fire by LOWERING their rates!!! While the Fed kept the whole thing going by "controlling inflation".

Now we go into reverse panic mode as the Fed works to keep everything from deleveraging too fast.

Why can't they see that?

Or maybe they do.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:43 - ID#431200)
Polarbear thanks for the site on Rangy.Best Regards.Goldteck.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 13:53 - ID#350179)
Should we start up a charity for these fellows? ;)
Wall Street's top execs suffer drastic losses in market downturn

Voyeur Professor
(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:00 - ID#231101)
Gold at $303 resistance

Personally, I regard gold's failure to maintain its brief rise through major resistance as ominous. I think we have seen the end of this leg up for gold unless significant buying comes into the market by the close.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:01 - ID#339297)
MLPFS investment in LTCM
Originally owned by MLPFS BUT returns so so G o o d , MLPFS manager decided to transfer ownership to themselves!!!! Right ?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:01 - ID#197328)
Gene Autrey
Good bye Gene, and God bless you.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:03 - ID#269128)
gollum...let's stick to the topic.
Currency FLUCTUATIONS are the cause of all this misery, are they not?

Capital flows and highly leveraged bets are nothing new...just their guise becomes more hiding behind pseudo-mathematics...a constant unit of account for all the world's citizens would greatly diminish the prospects for gains from shifting these "hot" money flows around.
In fact these flows are sucking out money otherwise in the real economy, as needed capital for functionality of the most basic businesses.

Having one fixed currency, a gold unit, would eliminate opportunities to profit from the misery of millions that having their savings depreciated in real terms.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:06 - ID#33184)
Khrushchev's Revenge
Some pretty good Russia jokes are making the rounds on Wall Street these days. A sampling: What's the difference between a ruble and a dollar? A dollar. And: Russia: The only country to fail at communism and capitalism! Or: You know what Russian workers say: "We pretend to work. They pretend to pay us."

Hardy-har-har. I'd be laughing hysterically if not for the fact that Mother Russia has just taken the entire world to the cleaners. I don't think people fully comprehend the magnitude of the losses yet! Sure, every other day some bank or hedge fund comes crawling up to the confessional to reveal mammoth losses in Russian securities. But has anyone taken the time to tally these suckers up? Well, I've tried, and I'll tell you, it's ugly!

It's also kind of tricky. You have losses in all kinds of securities. You've got the vaporization in Russian stocks. Then you've got the losses in Russian government bonds, whereby Yeltsin's boys have essentially defaulted on some $40 billion in sovereign securities ( so far! ) . And then you've got the losses in currency trading ( the great ruble rubout! ) and various derivative contracts.

Next you have to measure the carnage. Not surprisingly, most banks are referring inquiries about Russian losses to their Assistant Vice Presidents of Obfuscation. The bankers are talking about "ranges of losses" ( meaning they probably don't really know themselves ) , or "adding to loss reserves." And of course there's probably underreporting--not to mention denial. That's why it was refreshing to see Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros' main man, on CNBC admitting quite candidly--in that droll, nasal voice of his--that Quantum had dropped about $2 billion in Russia! ( Remember when Khrushchev said, "We will bury you"? )

All right, on to the tally ( remember, this is broad-brush stuff ) . Let's start with Soros' $2 billion. Other hedge funds like Leon Cooperman's Omega and smaller outfits like Appaloosa have reportedly lost hundreds of millions. Next, the banks ( most lump Russia in with emerging-market losses ) : Bankers Trust at $350 million. Citibank: $200 million. Bank of America: $220 million. Even the oh-so-conservative Republic Bank: $110 million. And the investment banks: Credit Suisse First Boston, $250 million ( rumors on the Street are that this number is WAY underreported. ) Salomon: $60 million. Merrill: $135 million. Morgan Stanley: $110 million. And let's not forget mutual funds like Lexington Troika Russia, Templeton Russia, and Phoenix Emerging Markets Bond fund, which are down $100 million more. Oh, and the European banks. They really took a beating. Barclays: $420 million. Worst of all, the Germans. One banking analyst says the total exposure of Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, and Dresdner Bank is $2.2 billion! Those securities are now worth cents on the dollar.

That makes for some serious scratch--$6.4 billion--but that's just the sliver that's public now. The credit-rating agency Fitch reportedly estimates that total losses for non-Russian investors could be as much as $100 billion. That's unbelievable! According to Derek Hargreaves of JP Morgan, Russia's entire GDP was around $450 billion last year! By the way, remember the horrible Mexican crisis in 1990? Total losses: a mere $17 billion.

So why for the love of Pete did everybody get suckered by Russia? Before Russian stocks began to fall off a cliff last year, they were some of the best performers in the world, up 159% for the year into August of 1997. The money followed the performance numbers, plain and simple.

Investing is often based on a gut feeling, and mine on Russia has always been, NO WAY! If you want to take a flier and plunk down $10,000 of mad money in the Thai Fund, go for it! Their economy's already coming back. But Russia? Just say nyet!


Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:13 - ID#430221)
Just got off the phone with my Moran Stanley/Dean Witter broker.
He told me the following. MS/DW had no money in LTCM. They put in
money, 300 million, because the Fed asked them to.

A case, however, can be made by shareholders against Merrill Lynch as
their chairman had $22 million invested. But, says my broker, all the
money will be gone. There will be no equity left. The $3.6 billion
will just allow them to unwind the positions or to hold on long enough.
He does not know which. He thinks things are being liquidated.

He pointed out that if Orange County had not been forced to get
out of their positions they would have been made whole in 6 months!!

So I wonder if interest rates are going to start climbing by the
end of the year. My sense says yes. Inflation could come back fast
at least in commodity prices. Housing will suffer no matter what.
It has too much debt out and higher and higher interest rates will kill
that market.

However, none of this is happening right now. We wait and see if
LTCM is made whole in six months. It will be interesting to watch.

I am still strongly of the opinion that the safest place to watch
this unfold is with a position in gold. Lots of it. And cash.

Thanks, GD The only way for LTCM to survive is for T-bonds to
tank in price big time before the money runs out.

PS My broker also said that if Michael Milkin was put in jail,
these guys should be shot. They lied to bankers and got money from them
without the bank getting anything in return. Sounds like the good
old boys club to me. I wonder why we put up with all this?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:15 - ID#252127)
Hedge Funds

It was first about floating currencies and interest rate differentials, just about protecting profits for the multinationals.

Then some bright young Ivy Leaguers and others with some degree of financial aptitude seen that manipulation of these markets could potentially reap large profits and promptly clued big money of their outstanding find.

THEN GREED SET IN, the rest is history, from Mexico, to Orange County and the sweep thru Asia. the former Kremlin and the crap is coming home to roost for you to pay 'their bills'.

PH in LA
(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:33 - ID#225408)
REALISTIC: Read this when you have a chance!

I sincerely hope you do not spend very much time congratulating yourself on what you appear to think is a clever way of expressing yourself with your nuisance posts. Because unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. Instead of cleverness, they demonstrate the paucity of your thought...the dearth of imagination that is yours.

In fact, in this real world, most of us do think one thing one day and something else the next. This is an inevitable part being human and of seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in the human weakness of others is not pleasant to behold. And it is whining to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Things change. What one thinks in all sincerity one moment is not always what that same mind thinks in all sincerity another. Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But as Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!"

Why not consider working up some stronger material?

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) something Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it!

These observations will be reposted as a reminder to our friend REALISTIC whenever and wherever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:42 - ID#31868)
I want Clintler and Robbing Rubin drug they think that all Americans are
that stupid...the sheeple...yes...but not all of us...18 billion is a joke...they are just filling their pockets and the Masters who have them on a leash...uh huh...Fthem...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:49 - ID#252127)
The screwed and the screwees

If you're a investor in one of them banks or brokerages whose earnings flow has been effected -YOU SHOULD SUE THE BUGGERS.
Not to mention what they did to hard money gold investors, in gold shares and the hard commodity producers.
This is a case where diagrammatically opposing forces ( Investors have suffered at the hands of The Monetary Elite ) . Being screwed by such screwees is hard to take.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 14:53 - ID#35571)
Well, I agree with your main premise, which is that these problems would not have come about if there were just ONE currency. I think I have a problem with the word fluctuations. It's not the fluctuations themselves that gives the problem, it's that there can be a bias between one and the next. As well as difference in the size of reserves to support one or the other.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:18 - ID#404410)
Voyeur Professor -- Your $303 resistance comment
Whereas we can't go by one day's performance, I basically agree with your comment about it being ominous that gold price backed off of $303. Yet, at this moment the XAU has picked up speed.
At Kaplan's site, he said that it is very bearish that people are becoming quite bullish on gold, which has a nice move in a short period of time ( this was one of several remarks that he made ) .


(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:23 - ID#258142)
Received drom Reify
Gold is going up

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:29 - ID#258142)
gwyz, 13:04 - Market will crash
Why "will crash"? We have slow motion crash since end of July

Mr. Mick
(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:34 - ID#345321)
Tolerant1, did you find out about Mina Proana? Did you
know anything about it? If not, don't worry.... Just thought you might have heard of it.
Email me sometime, eh?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:38 - ID#264289)
9 Safest Places to put your Money
Rick Ackerman suggests the 9 safest places to put your money if you are worried about the present markets. T-Bills, CD's and Money Market Funds are lumped into number 2. Check the link out to find out what number one on his list is.

Hint: Not hedge funds.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:48 - ID#350179)
HP cutting 2,500 jobs

The big maker of computers, printers and high-tech accessories had already announced a $150 million restructuring charge this quarter to pay for belt-tightening measures. Hewlett-Packard said it expects 2,500 of its 127,200 workers to accept voluntary severance offers, including about 800 in Silicon Valley.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:49 - ID#331387)
BIS - The Bank for International Settlements
I have always believed that BIS would measure the stress in the financial system by having its' publicly traded price rise as investors get scared. In the last 60 days, BIS has reached a new low of 8,400 swiss francs. This represents a 3.6 % dividend yield that has a 10 year growth rate of + 7.5 %. In September '96 , China + other Asian central banks paid nearly 15,000 per swiss francs for entry into the system. Earnings growth rate for the last 10 years is + 9 % I have financial statements going back to 1971 and BIS earnings have virtually always increased . In this time period, NO losses. This is the central banks' bank and would NEVER fail and yet you can get a money market rate of return!!! Increasing @ 7.5% per annum.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:51 - ID#365216)
Prepared for come what may?
Got God, gold, grub, guns, generators ( and girls in case the
generators don't work ) ?

That is all.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 15:55 - ID#264289)
Rubinspeak translation
From an article quoted by moa at 13:04:
Rubin also cited the need for stronger national financial systems with better oversight of foreign investments in emerging markets. He added
that ``finally, responses to crises must include appropriate private-sector involvement and new financing mechanisms to combat contagion.''

This from a CP article in my local paper:
"Countries that fall into financial crisis should have the right to suspend payments to private-sector investors, Commonwealth finance ministers said Thursday.

The ministers also adjourned their two-day annual meeting with a partial endorsemnt of new rules to prevent investors from suddenly pulling out their money furing crisis."

I guess that is what is meant by private sector involvement. Involvement = wealth confiscation.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:02 - ID#404410)
Comments from Gold Mining Outlook - too much enthusiasm?
From Steven Jon Kaplan's site last evening ( in part ) :
"Total gold mining equity option U.S. daily volume is significantly above normal levels while put-call ratios are significantly below normal levels. This is SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, reflecting clear overexcitement after the 62.18% gain in the XAU since the end of August."

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:04 - ID#264289)

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:06 - ID#350179)
Close (Unofficial)
NOTE XAU is measured from prior close.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:13 - ID#43349)
Actually, the broad market has been declining sicen the end of March.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:15 - ID#252150)
Not to wish anyone else bad luck, but I hope Kaplan is right because I'm once
again short PDG, after being stopped out on 2 earlier attempts. I do think though, that we may test 314 again, in which case I'll either get stopped out again, or short more on the way up & be a nervous wreck.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:19 - ID#343171)
y2k fun-fun
radio news just now, I kiddest thou not:
"as Asia and Australia will get to the year 2000 before us they may
experience computer date problems and provide solutions before we
have trouble in the US"

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:21 - ID#329186)
Sharefin ( Request a Favour)
I have been contacted by a budding goldbug from Queensland who needs some info
1 ) can you recomend a bullion dealer in Australia where he can buy coins
2 ) He is also concerned about gold confiscation ( aren't we all ) what evidence is there of this happening?
3 ) is there any Tax ( VAT ) I assume they operate the global scheme.
would appreciate answers it would take a week for him to get a handle and post the question

best regards

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:22 - ID#304282)
What did Jerry Favors say on CNBC?? Help!
My cable went out right before he was supposed to talk. Thanks.

Voyeur Professor
(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:25 - ID#231101)
Highhopes and gold's resistance

I agree that the XAU's firm recovery represents a very hopeful retracement. Strong buying came into the gold equities market late today, causing ABX to move up from 20 11/16 to 21 3/8 at the close. Such a move indicates that investors and funds are clearly playing the gold market for the first with upward momentum. ABX had almost 3.5 million shares traded today. All this is a good sign, indicating that gold has upward momentum. Even boullion recovered from its noontime swoon. But gold still must maintain $303-305 for a week or so or the shorts will be alive again.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:28 - ID#258273)
Have you checked out Droke's analysis of golds on vronsky's site? It is bullish on PDG: Breaking above the neckline out of a head and shoulders pattern.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:33 - ID#269128)
gollum... I agree with Delphi
Gold is going UP.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:36 - ID#28861)
CRB comments favorable to Gold
"It's a flight to quality but its bringing out systems traders," an
industry source said. He said that funds had started to buy as Dec gold
managed to hold the 200-day moving average of $301. "This was a heavy buy
signal to systems traders," he said.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:37 - ID#257151)
Please remind me who it was said the "crash has started in far away New Zealand?
Then have a look here:^nz40&d=b

My Coin shop says all, but ALL her English Sovereigns have been bought and repatriated, where they are returning a premium. Apparently the UK is not so keen on the Aussie sovs

The bullion coins are being bought every day by one chinese gentleman who flies to HK with them each week. I am left now with the rats and mice, which include ( Apollo Gees to my merkan friends who might be offended ) the St Gaudian which, not being 9999 attracts GST and which I therefore lump into the same category as the Krugerrand,

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:38 - ID#34191)
Global economic meltdown is the Republican Congress's fault because
they haven't funded IMF yet. It's the '95 gov't shutdown lie all over again. I'm so sick of WJC's lies that I'm ready to SHOOT the sick SOB.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:38 - ID#43349)
I do too.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:38 - ID#242325)
Andy Smith
Andy Smith says gold will go to $340, but will collpase again when world markets calm down. I think he is dead wrong, because REAL INTEREST RATES -- the most important single factor influencing POG --will be coming down and staying down for quite some time.

[ Business | US Market | By Industry | IPO | AP | S&P | International | PRNews | BizWire ]

Friday October 2, 1:47 pm Eastern Time

Gold's climb over $300.00 winning friends

By Patrick Chalmers

LONDON, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - Gold's climb above $300.00 on Friday helped its case for a
gentle bull run but left analysts sanguine on prospects for a runaway rally.

Concerns over the global economic outlook pushed European stock markets to
November 1997 levels before they recovered slightly, helping gold to fix at a four-month
high in London.

It was last trading at $303.00/$303.50 a troy ounce, up on Thursday's New York close of $299.70/$300.20.

``I think there's definitely more interest on balance in gold,'' said Tony Warwick-Ching, metals analyst with Flemings Global
Mining Group.

``I don't mean we're off to the races but it's better than it's been for some time,'' he said, adding that gold's firmness was more due
to dollar weakness than flight-to-quality buying by those fleeing equities.

Warwick-Ching said gold's record as a safe haven was somewhat patchy, having seen only short-lived gains during the 1987 stock
market crash and intermittent gains during equity market uncertainty in the 1990s.

Mitsui commodities analyst Andy Smith told a Tokyo panel discussion on Friday gold prices would hit $340.00 in the next three
months but fall to $280 within a year as stability returned to world markets.

Other participants, such as Mitsui's deputy general manager Satoru Ogawa, saw gold hitting $310 in three months before falling back
to $250 by October 1999.

Gold has strengthened since hitting 19-year lows of $270.75 bid on August 28, halting a two-and-a-half-year bear run from above

Gold's fall came as mines and hedge funds sold metal forward, betting that real and imagined central bank gold sales meant a
one-way ticket south for bullion.

Last week's $3.5 billion bail out of U.S. hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management prompted thoughts that other funds might be
also be struggling and so less likely to punt on lower gold prices any time soon.

That left open the question of mine hedge sales into gold's rally, a rise magnified among non-U.S. producers by weakness in local

Roger Chaplin, gold equity analyst with brokers T.Hoare & Co., said higher local prices might not mean a flood of mine hedge

``It's a bit of a moving target. We have got to $300.00 so now they are looking at $305.00 and $310.00.''

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:39 - ID#183109)
Looks like Durban is a lot bigger than many realised. Per DROOY P.R. folks as posted on S.I.,

Durban has :77,928,623 shares authorised
56,155,055 shares issued.

And from Durbans website I gathered this on the options: 5 182 773 options and 8 937 607 "B" options.

A buddy at S.I. provided me with this: regular options are exercisable through 12/31/99 at 3 cents per common share subject to price adjustment at the discretion of the company. The 'B' options are exercisable through 6/30/2002 at 6 cents per common share.

If this is the case then isnt it fair to consider these options as good as exercised, given these exercisable prices?

If so then it appears that the total shares now could be considered around 70 Million. Only a few hours sleep last night.does this sound right?

To clarify, does the figure of 77 million shares authorized imply that all options out plus all shares issued equals this shares authorized? TIA. PB

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:44 - ID#237299)
24K @your 15:55 amazing. especially the comment about
the "new rules":

"The ministers also adjourned their two-day annual meeting with a partial endorsement of new rules to prevent investors from suddenly pulling out their money during crisis."

Why of course. We can't just let the sheeple move what they think is
"their own" money about, now can we. My god, just imagine, if they really get the silly notion that they can run their own affairs; transfering their hard earned dollars just willy-nilly, where ever they want..
ohhh, the thought is shuddering.. Buying what "they" want instead of what we tell them to, pulling their money out of our pyramid.. ( OOOPS ) I mean wise investments..
Well !! it would just be anarchy!

I wonder if the participants of the meeting gave the seig heil and clicked their heels at the end??

Bully Beef
(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:48 - ID#259282)
Since my ignorance is no secret,,, is deleveraging selling your positions
in order to pay off your debts ( or in some cases your debt on a debt ) ?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:50 - ID#401237)

Excuse me but I just got on, which is it 7.5 or 70.0 million shares out.

I just bought 1000 of the 7.5 million shares.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:50 - ID#43349)
Fire's in the hole!!!
Some may think the possibilities of margin call driven price movements was eased by the technical rebound in the stock market today. The key word however is globalization.

We are one small part of an increasingly global economy. We are not the only ones taking the big hits, and many hedge funds are offshore operations.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 16:56 - ID#401237)

He is setting up the same senario again to shut down the US Government, they have not passed a permanent funding bill. Just watch, it is in the works. This guy is scary!


(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:00 - ID#401237)

I am the only one that posted between 6:50 & 6:56 and for as slow as it was you would think there was 100. I don't understand what the problem is?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:00 - ID#258273)
New Zealand
One early reference is from the Great Reckoning:

The Financial Times said on October 16, 1992, "The British economy is lake a battered car on a steepening descent." The same can be said of Scandinavia. New Zealand and Australia entered slumps years ago and have not recovered.

Wasn't New Zealand the first IMF "rescue?"

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:01 - ID#401237)

That one was a lot faster.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:04 - ID#350179)
``The U.S. has a major economic problem,'' Edwards said.

``It is very difficult to justify a further re-rating of U.S. shares if earnings turn negative. But equally it is important not to get carried away and see this going into freefall. I see 6,000-7,000 as fair value on the Dow.''

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:06 - ID#237299)
Need help identifying gold coin:
I bought a 1/4 oz gold coin the other day, owner couldn't tell me
anything about it. On one side is: ".9999 fine gold 1/4 troy oz."
and two up raised cupped hands partially obscuring an equilateral
triangle. There are "sparks" or "rays" issuing from the palms of the hands. On the other side is a "starburst" dead center.

I don't have a scanner to upload. Kinda' looks new age or star trek.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:09 - ID#401237)
The Media is in Bed with Clinton

Here come the media attacks on Congress for not passing the IMF funding. Congress is now at fault for the Clinton World Economic collapse.

He is doing such a great job, let's keep him in there ..... you got to be kidding.

They talk of the layoffs as proof that the economy is slowing down but fudge the employment numbers at 4.2% unemployment.
It will never go up.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:16 - ID#258142)
Gollum, 16:13
Broader markets where declining from march. May be in USA, but not in West Europe

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:16 - ID#252150)
BigFisherman@I know all their charts look great, but I feel that an ncreasing
POG is dependant on a weakening USD. The USD finished firmer today & the S&P closed near it's high. I'm betting that the firmness will continue into Mon. & Ausralian producers will sell. Since the far east & the sub-continent is in such bad shape, I don't see where all the demand will come from for 300+ au. Besides the XAU is way overextended & due for a retracement.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:17 - ID#229207)
Latest trend in Global Capitalism. It's called Socialism.
Brazil shrs surge as goverment seen buying stocks
SAO PAULO, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - Brazilian shares surged 7.53 percent at Friday's close fueled by gains on Wall Street and as the government was seen buying stocks to boost the market ahead of elections, traders said.

``There is no doubt that there's government intervention forcing stocks up,'' a trader at a local brokerage said.

``Stocks are also rising on the gains on Dow Jones and other positive indicators.''

Sao Paulo's key Bovespa index closed up at 6,410 points, accompanying an almost 2 percent rise on Wall Street and gains throughout Latin American bourses.

Traders said the government boosted share prices by intervening via Brazil's National Development Bank and the state-owned Banco do Brasil to buy shares. The BNDES denied the speculation.

``The market was driven by the rise in Dow Jones and a true 'chapa branca' operation on the eve of elections,'' a trader said, referring to government intervention. Government cars have white license plates, or 'chapas brancas.'

References by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to financial aid for Latin America and comments by Central Bank president Gustavo Franco in New York also boosted shares, traders said.

The government was seen wanting to intervene in the markets on the last trading day before Sunday's elections to fuel optimism. Trading was light with shares worth 399 million reais trading hands.

Among blue-chip stocks, Telebras receipts surged 10.98 percent, closing up at 82.90 reais. Energy company Eletrobras preferred jumped 6.22 percent to close up 23.90 reais.

State-owned oil company Petrobras preferred closed up 5.41 percent at 117 reais and iron ore miner Cia Vale do Rio Doce preferred closed up 10.12 percent at 18.5 reais.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:20 - ID#36977)
Brazil shrs surge as goverment seen buying stocks
Well, at least they're honest about it.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:29 - ID#401237)
tricky ( Jerry Favors on CNBC)

I will try to relate what was said as best I can. First CNBC had a problem with their video transmission, so his comments were stated by Ron Insana.

He sees a Dow bottom @ 6700-7400, however, the market is over sold at the moment and over the next week or so there may be a rally of +- 200 pts. Please note that the market did rally 150+ pts today so this could be a large part of the rally he is talking about. He said the market could rally to 7840 in the short run. BUT, the 6700 - 7400 is still in place.

That is the jist of what was said. Jerry Favors works out of the same city I am in...I don't think I have ever met him or seen him on local news that much. He seems to be right on most of the time.

I heard a comment earlier that I think we all who are in Gold should take note of.

"AG, BC,and RR all were very negative and alarmists to a degree, this may have been done in an attempt to get the markets bottom out"


(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:38 - ID#401237)
In one day +89% aint bad huh?



(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:48 - ID#404410)
James -- I agree that the XAU is overextended on this move.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:49 - ID#43349)

(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:50 - ID#401237)
Out of Here

While everyone has gone out drinkin, I think I will go workout ......... they won't let me drink any more ...... I caused to much trouble.



(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:54 - ID#350179)
Something for the gun dudes
Russia develops jet-powered flamethrower

The new flamethrower, called the Bumble Bee, has an impact comparable to a 152 mm artillery shell and a range of up to 1,000 yards, ITAR-Tass said. It can be used in rugged countryside or city fighting where artillery would be difficult to employ.

Steve in TO
(Fri Oct 02 1998 17:56 - ID#209265)
derivatives disaster
Eric Margolis 1 Oct 1998

NEW YORK - How many more shocks can the shaky world financial system take?

Asia is toast. Russia's financial Potemkin Village has collapsed. Latin
America is facing a lethal currency crisis.

Late last week, the world as we know it nearly came to an end: a
little-known hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) almost went
bust to the tune of US$100-120 BILLION. LTCM's collapse and asset
liquidation could have triggered panic on Wall Street, and even led to a
crash of world financial markets.

Derivatives and hedge funds are a casino for big financial institutions
and fat-cat investors. The opening ante for LTCM investors was $10
million. These plays are like huge side bets made at a high-stakes crap
shoot. When on a roll, they soar, but once things go wrong, watch out.

LTCM's financial alchemists managed to miraculously transmute an opening
investment of $4 billion into $100-120 billion in hyper-leveraged assets
through aggressive borrowing, purple smoke, and mirrors. The money wizard
and two Nobel laureates who ran LTCM used complex computer models to
predict bond movements, and then bet enormous sums of borrowed money on
arbitrating spreads between short and long sales.

Russia's collapse and the ensuing international financial panic put the
kibosh on the best-laid computer plans of LTCM, leaving it bankrupt, with
some $10 billion in debts. Washington organized a hasty rescue, funded by
big banks to whom LTCM owed billions. It was, as Wellington said, a
close-run thing.

Also, one rich in irony. Two years ago, pyramid investment schemes -
modern versions of the old Ponzi swindle - brought financial chaos and
political collapse to tiny Albania. The western media heaped scorn on the
rustic Albanians for their gullibility in believing they could get returns
of 30-40%.

LTCM was an Albanian pyramid scheme, writ large, run by smooth Wall Street
hucksters in wide suspenders and Brooks Brothers suits. The
sophisticated, fat-cat investors, who expected returns of 30-40%, got
plucked as surely as the poor Albanians. American banks will take a big
hit. Switzerland's largest bank, UBS, lost a shocking - and humiliating -
$750 million, though sources tell me it made $1.2 billion with LTCM in

Last year, I was offered a share of a New York hedge fund that was `sure'
to return 30%. I demurred. My years in Mideast bazaars taught me that any
investment that makes 30% without effort or crime is more likely to lose
100%. This was Vegas, not investment. The fund is -20% today.

The LTCM crash was observed with mordant satisfaction in Tokyo. For years,
Americans have been scolding, sermonizing, and hectoring Japan to reform
its financial institutions, let insolvent ones fail, and come clean with
transparent accounting. Japanese watched gleefully as Washington
scrambled to save LTCM from bankruptcy and sort out its murky, tangled
accounts that seem as mysterious and opaque as the Tibetan Book of the

More scarifying, only a handful of experts understand derivatives. There
are 4,000 hedge funds of varying sizes, all operating in a financial and
regulatory seventh dimension. No one knows how much multiplied debt has
been . accumulated by speculators. Estimates run to $1.4 trillion!

These huge pools of speculative investment are like naval mines floating
free in international sea lanes. Which will be the next to explode and
take down a major bank, as Barrings was wrecked in 1995 by a 27-year old
trader who ran amok playing derivatives?

There are arguments to be made for and against saving LTCM. Its collapse
could have ignited an international financial panic. But government has
no business saving speculators from their own greed and recklessness.
Remember, though, the 1930's world recession was triggered by the collapse
of a small Viennese bank, Credit Anstalt.

What next? Brazil? Another LTCM? Germany wrecked by socialist quackery?
We are entering perilous times. Extreme prudence in public and personal
fiances is in order.

copyright eric margolis 1998


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in the body:
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(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:00 - ID#424424)
Tricky - HighRise was pretty close about Jerry Favors
Ron Insana ( #1 talking head ) said Favors said:

1 ) Expects intraday low of 6703 by end of October.
2 ) If Dow holds above 7530 right in here, then will rally to
7840, could go to 8100-8200 on an outside chance.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:07 - ID#335379)
Hello 24 K number nine looks good also. Gold or a vacation!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:19 - ID#254321)
Gold and 'Fire in the Hole'
Gollum, All: Another great day for gold/gold equities.
But -- we must continue to be on the alert for a market meltdown due to the derivatives problem lurking out there. We just had a liquidity crisis 'twitch' with LTCM, and the market has partially forgotten - consciously, anyway. We are likely to have more of these -- under the best of circumstances we will have a boatload of finacial firms/banks with bad earnings reports. Under the worst of circumstances, we could have a market meltdown.
One of our fellow Kitcoites mentioned today that the world's financial system is interconnected more than it ever has been before. That means that a US dollar liquidity crisis shock wave will richochet through the markets all over the world if it hits. No country will be untouched.
I am going to watch commodity prices, the value of the dollar, interest rates very carefully for signs of a return to deflation. We who are riding the gold bug Tsunami must be looking in all directions at once -- this is only the first gold rally of many to come. And -- we certainly don't want to get caught unprepared when the 'fire in the hole' isn't in the hole anymore.
Just went to the automatic teller and had my own little liquidity crisis. Computer refused to give me $100 cash. Tried $80, refused. Tried $60, accepted. Had $6k in the account. When I finally got my money it was all in $5 bills -- ran out of $20's. Just think about the worst case scenario if we have a liquidity crisis, and nothing comes out of the automatic teller. What will you use to pay for that meal, or the food you were going to buy on the way home from work?

Perhaps we may have our liquidity crisis well before y2k. Can't imagine the world derivatives problem can persist till Dec 1999. And, I can't believe that anyone is attempting an orderly shutdown of derivatives trades. It will shut down all right, but not the way we want it to.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:20 - ID#14431)
FLASH! Re: Lehman Bros.
USAGOLD says that rumors are strong the the Fed is again involved in saving another financial institution: Lehman Bros.! Anyone know anything hard about this?

If true, WOW. Last week, LTCM; this week, Lehman Bros. Who's next?

( Sorry to post and run, but gotta leave the office to go home now. I'll pick up on posts later this evening. )


(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:26 - ID#269128)
wall street casino unravelling....
I'm buying physical this weekend..nobody else's debt or hollow promise.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:30 - ID#229207)
Good timing to open this service in the traditional equities crash month
U.S. Treasuries to be sold by phone staring Oct 5

WASHINGTON, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - Investors will be able to buy U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds direct by touch-tone telephone starting on Monday, Oct. 5, the Treasury Department announced on Friday.

To use the service, an investor must have a ``TreasuryDirect'' account with Treasury's Bureau of Public Debt. Securities can then be purchased as they are issued by the government and kept in the customer's account.

Anyone can set up such an account by requesting a form to do so from one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks or through the Treasury's Internet website and sending it in to Treasury.

Treasury said it takes about two weeks to process the form, after which a statement with an account number is sent to the investor. A customer then can dial 1-800-943-6864 to find what securities are available and follow instructions to buy them.

Treasury has been making it easier for individual investors to buy government-guaranteed debt securities by themselves without having to use a broker.

The new telephone service joins an Internet buy-direct program that began operating on Sept. 16. Treasury said more than $9 million in bills and notes were bought online in the first two weeks that the Internet service was available.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:35 - ID#229207)
First the Treasury invents the $1,000 T-Bill so anyone can afford to own gov't debt
Now you can buy them over the phone and Internet. In the future look for:

- $100 T-Bills
- ATM-style T-Bill machines
- Purchase T-Bills through your 401K


(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:37 - ID#350179)
SEATTLE ( October 2, 1998 6:03 p.m. EDT ) -- About 1,100 Boeing Co. workers were given 60-day layoff warning notices Friday, the ailing aerospace giant's first step toward cutting 28,000 jobs by the end of next year.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:42 - ID#433172)
If what Polarbear found on SSi is so it's an obvious ripoff, pure and simple. Brings all mining operators under suspicion. I sold my DD by mistake ( still did well ) and now glad of it. Someone posted a while back on this issue with DD which contributed to my ( decision ) to dump- thankyou
Gollum- When the bond market crashes, what happenes? How does it come apart? T-bills can default?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:44 - ID#43460)
MM re Boeing layoffs
My brother in law was laid off from Boeing this summer. He'd gotten about halfway through repainting his house and they called him back. They've been doing this for 20 years. IMHO

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:52 - ID#269128)
Lehman Bros...fuse lit?
Friday October 2, 5:32 pm Eastern Time

Lehman denies troubles as rumors fly on Wall

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc ( NYSE:LEH -
news ) ., the parent of U.S. primary dealer Lehman Government Securities, on
Friday denied several rumors about financial troubles tied to its mortgage-backed portfolio.

``There are no issues around funding, credit and cash flow,'' a Lehman spokesman told Reuters when asked about market
rumors that Lehman's financial problems were serious enough to trigger an imminent rescue takeover by Bankers Trust Corp
( NYSE:BT - news ) .

Bankers Trust was not available to immediately comment on the rumors.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:54 - ID#269128) with high net worth clients....hedge fund anyone?
Friday September 25, 7:04 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

SOURCE: Lehman Brothers

Lehman Brothers' Response

NEW YORK, Sept. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Lehman Brothers said today that, as part of Standard & Poor's change in outlook for
firms throughout the securities industry, it is disappointed with the ratings agency's decision to put the Firm's debt ratings on
CreditWatch with negative implications.

Earlier this week, the Firm's long-term debt ratings were reaffirmed by Moody's, with a ``stable'' outlook.

``While S&P's actions today clearly underscore its outlook on the entire securities industry,'' said Richard S. Fuld, Jr.,
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, ``Lehman Brothers has never been stronger, after four years of building our
businesses, enhancing profitability, and growing our capital base.''

Mr. Fuld pointed out that Lehman Brothers this week reported record earnings of $662 million for the first nine months of
1998, a return on equity of 20%, stockholders' equity of $5.349 billion, and total capital ( stockholders' equity and long-term
debt ) of $33.730 billion.

S&P noted that it ``continues to have confidence in Lehman's risk management capabilities,'' and that its decision ``does not
reflect concern over any particular balance sheet exposures or operating problems.'' S&P noted that it felt the Firm was more
concentrated in investment banking and capital markets activities than other major firms.

Mr. Fuld noted that the Firm was pleased that, given the current market environment, S&P expressed confidence in the Firm's
risk management capabilities and had no concerns over specific exposures -- comments similar to those made earlier this week
by Moody's.

Lehman Brothers is a global investment bank with leadership positions in corporate finance, advisory services, municipal
finance and fixed income and equity sales, trading and research. Lehman Brothers serves the financial needs of corporate,
government and institutional clients, and high-net-worth individuals through offices in major financial centers worldwide.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 18:55 - ID#433172)
Could it be somebody is feeding cheap shares into the market at .68 because they got 5 million for .02 ? heh heh..pain

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:09 - ID#269128)
Boy doesn't this make one sick...IMF is THE poverty merchant.
Friday October 2, 6:21 pm Eastern Time

IMF says Bolivia not doing enough to end

WASHINGTON, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund on Friday said
Bolivia was moving too slowly to reduce poverty in South America's poorest

Following a routine review of the Bolivian economy, the IMF board commended
Bolivia for its solid track record since 1985 and strong progress in adopting
structural reforms.

But the directors said in a statement that they were concerned that Bolivia has only made ``gradual improvements'' in poverty
and social indicators.

The IMF said it backs the government's 1998-2001 economic program aimed at securing a more significant reduction in
poverty by encouraging faster sustainable growth.

Reforms had stimulated a surge in foreign direct investment, however, which was setting the stage for faster growth in
exports. It said the investment was mainly concentrated in the more profitable energy sector.

The IMF directors said the inflows could generate larger domestic spending, and they caution that this created the risk of
overheating the economy.

It could also push the external current account deficit to high levels, making the Bolivia more vulnerable to external shocks,
they cautioned.

The IMF expects Bolivia to grow 4.7 percent this year, compared to 4.2 percent in 1997, and post a fiscal deficit of 4.1 percent
of GDP ( versus 3.3 in 1997 ) and a current account deficit of 8.2 percent ( versus 8.1 percent in 1997 ) .

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:10 - ID#295111)
Placer Dome Chairman Speaks on TV about Gold
I just saw the Chairman of PDG on a TV show called Canadian Investor.

1. He says the market can absorb any CB seling now and in the furture.
CB sales had not caused the POG to sink.

2. He said POG was lowered due to speculators shorting gold via BORROWING from the CB's. He says that lease rates are too low. He and the rest in the gold industry would like to see gold lease rates at par with the rates of T-Bills.


Look for more hedge funs to crap out.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:15 - ID#295111)
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $21.3125 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.23
ASL-Ashanti Gold-----CLOSED AT $09.8750 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.13
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $06.1875 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.33
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $07.1875 -0.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.02
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $12.1250 0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $20.6250 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.01
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.8125 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $13.5625 0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.52
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $28.6250 2.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.15
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $15.5000 0.9375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.76

XAU CLOSED AT 82.89 3.6

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:19 - ID#288295)
Free stuff
Neural net market predictions - Free via email: sample of an interesting-looking chart prediction: just for laughs ( or curiosity ) a free Bill Clinton forecast: http://www.stockpro.netGo Gold - Up and Away!!!!!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:22 - ID#288295)
And the 2nd one

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:22 - ID#288295)
Try again

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:23 - ID#288295)
Here's Bill

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:24 - ID#348129)
@FUND Increases Gold allocation to 25% From 5 %
Van Eck Global and Worldwide Hard Assets Funds has raised their allocation to gold shares from 5 percent to between 20 and 25 percent of assets. The company said the move comes in response to the rally in gold and gold share prices, according to Derek Van Eck, portfolio manager. Founded in 1955, Van Eck Global offered the first gold mutual fund and its Hard Assets Funds invest in the stocks of gold mining and other metals-related companies, real estate, energy, and natural resource shares.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:26 - ID#429121)
Warning: Y-2-K related

Check out this Y-2-K site!!!!

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:29 - ID#295111)
TLC Gold Shorting
I just talked with a friend of a friend who has close ties with LTC on the inside.

He wouldn't be specific but told me that LTC has shorted Gold at NO LESS than 75 tons but NO MORE than 325 tons.

Even if it is on the low side of 75 tons, that's still a heck of a lot that needs to be re-purchased.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:29 - ID#237299)
@the other hedge fund rumors: The Game is so rigged against
us, I'm loosing hope about gold. The fed has shown that crony capitalism
will step in wherever and whenever they please, with any amount of
money necessary to protect the dow, AND halt gold prices.

The illusion of the stock market where buyers and sellers are supposed
to reach each other and "make a market" is rubbish. There was an earlier
post on Kitco about the Brazilian market and the article got sniffy
while suggesting that the "government had stepped in to buy stocks"
to firm it up before the election. Imagine that. Just like the Fed.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:30 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 25.92. The 377 day moving average is 26.49. This is the second day we are below it.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:32 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .276. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:34 - ID#433143)
hrmm if one were to pick up a gold stock out of the XAU, which would it be?
heheh pick a gold any gold! hahah im getting into rangy monday, and need to diversify into other golds that have been around.. so, any good suggesstions?? Whats with BMG??? sluggish looking..

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:36 - ID#71231)
The short squeeze market
Did you ever notice that the market makes these strong corrections when everyone knows money is flowing OUT of Wall Street and the market is incredibly overvalued?

I've been shorting since June, and as I was screening for stocks to short using classic value analysis with a growth discounting mechanism included, I discovered the following: average return on the most outrageously valued companies was HIGHER on average than on undervalued companies - and that there seemed to be nothing in common among the companies but for outrageous valuations and - LARGE and growing SHORT positions. The historical test of the screens showed that these were the best short term longs ever - on the + side.

Short positions were growing at an incredible pace through the beginning of the year and reached a peak in May. Following the obvious beginnings of a bear market in March ( classic modern day two tier market since 1990 with a strong set of indicators of a coming decline ) , shorting was the most rational thing for an individual investor to do.

Contrary to all indications, the June - July rally came in, to my surprise, I found that it was composed solely of the most heavilly shorted stocks. Hence the conclusion - THE MAIN INFLOW OF CASH INTO THE STOCK MARKET SINCE MAY HAS BEEN SHORT COVERING. The decline in the market started in earnest only when enough shorts were busted and gave up.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:42 - ID#433143)
George, EJ
When a country defaults on bonds, its citizens are the ones holding the greatest amount of debt. ie Russia. You can buy bonds in 25 dollar increments! thats close to atm-style! Japan is shedding there bonds and the US gov wants everyone to own the bonds cuz they are quality.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 19:54 - ID#286249)
Revenge of the Fuddy-Duddies--coming to a bank near you...

Once upon a time, in the land called Centralbanking, there was a tribe known as the "Fuddy-Duddies". Fuddy-Duddies believed in "saving for a rainy day". They believed that "saving" meant safeguarding the "tempest reserve" from life's daily turmoil. The Fuddy-Duddies lived well and prospered for many years. Then a new tribe invaded and conquered their territory.

The new tribe, known as the Bz-e-goats, knew about rainy days, but had a different 'take' on saving for them. They claimed to know how to manage those savings so that, during all the many days that were not rainy, the savings would grow and grow and grow, making the "rainy day" provisions even more robust.

The Bz-e-goats were, to a Goat, articulate and charming, fast-talking and persuasive. They explained that "rainy days" were a manageable risk, and they knew the secrets of managing the risk. Some places needed more "rainy days" and some places had too many "rainy days". It was simply a matter of smart-swapping to redirect rain-clouds from the places that had too many ( an unwanted risk ) to the places that had too few ( and for whom the rain-clouds would be a "wanted risk" ) . And a small charge for this "rain-cloud management" would accumulate as a very handsome reserve for a rainy day. In fact those fees would also be "put to work", to acquire even more "rainy day savings"-- if such should ever be needed. ( Which need Bz-e-goats were confident would never arise, because threatening rain-clouds would-of course-be "smart-swapped" to another territory. )
The Fuddy-Duddies were derided and denied decision positions. Some few kept their places by keeping very quiet. They even developed a secret signal of recognition. A wink.

And everything seemed to work just as the Bz-e-goats had said it would. Well, not 100% of course, there were occasional problems and misallocations. There were growing grumblings that the smart-swaps were not changing anything that much because the places that had too little, still had too little and the places that had too much, still had too much.

"No, no, that's not quite true," the Bz-e-goats press person said. "We can point to several great success stories. Mexico, for example, desperately needed more rain, which we smart-swapped for," and then the press person signaled to the media person who plugged into a live-feed from Mexico--with unfortunate consequences as the scheduled feed was interrupted by "Breaking News" which showed Mexicans gallantly coping with a five-hundred year flood. The press person said it was a one-off. Outside the briefing room it began to rain.

In another part of the country, the Fuddy-Duddies looked around their dry, well-stocked vault. It was an integral tenet of their LifeLaw that "rainy day savings" had to be kept in a place sheltered from even the fiercest of tempestskept in a safe condition; safeguarded; to prevent the waste or loss of; conserved; set aside for future use; stored.

Moral: When the word is "store" and the response is "spend", you're dealing with the fiscally challenged.

John B
(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:08 - ID#77133)
POG Has Been Running on a Few Good Legs
but we may be losing two of them. First LTCM was the big Kahuna of hedge firms that speculated and leveraged heavily in derivatives. Its now no longer a factor. We shouldn't hold our collective breaths waiting for another very big hedge fund to blow up.

Secondly, the market rise today is anticipating a major solution by the G-7 starting this weekend to protect Brazil from blowing up. If that happens, this could quiet the international currency crisis for a while.
If so, we'll be back to relying on more basic supports for the POG such as a declining dollar etc.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:10 - ID#240241)
HM Homestake
Lehman Brothers handled a block trade of 100,000 shares today. Stock
up $.75 I believe.

I too am curious if anyone knows anything about BMG. Just some
profit taking after a couple of good moves?

Aragorn III
(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:18 - ID#212323)
ka-POW! I have returned from my business travels.
Many are well-pleased with my pleasure..."No charge," I say in response. Just look at that gold market, and join me in a smile!

Many posts in the archives to review...but first, a departure to join collegues in raising a glass on a job well done, and a salute to my brothers at Kitco--you all know who you are, and if you have to pause to consider whether you are--you ARE!

Cheers! For though gold remains the same, yet the world is a better place...for gold!!

got some?

Aragorn III
(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:25 - ID#212323)
moa...from a quick scan of recent past...(I couldn't resist the chance to comment)
Date: Fri Oct 02 1998 18:26
moa ( wall street casino unravelling.... ) ID#269128:
I'm buying physical this weekend..nobody else's debt or hollow promise.
My comment to you, well, it goes without saying...

P.S. Have a good weekend!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:27 - ID#190411)
I am not a sophisticated investor as you seem to be, but I have suspected that a large amount of the internet types go up in such wild fashion that one has to suspect that they are mainly trading vehicles for squeezing the shorts.
Thanks for your insight, perhaps you can add more.

I have been watching Donald's Au/XAU ratio closely. It seems that once we pass .25, or .26 in this market, you had better keep a close watch.
The GC98Z today didn't make me want to stay with Newmont Gold any longer.
Add to that the piddling 2.5% premium to NEM, and I bailed.
In this market, the majors have done their runup as far as they can go without a meaningful rise in POG.
I will look more toward the midsize, and scour the gutters and alleys for a neglected junior.
Now the research gets a lot tougher.

Too bad Glenn is having a good time on vacation, I'd like to see his read on today's action in Dec gold.

I am still 100% in golds ( stupid ) , other than some cash.

When the end of August crash hit, TYoung, nick@C, and myself were the only scaredicats that seemed to be buying. TYoung, I hope you make a bundle, if not Sqillions.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:29 - ID#242325)
Jude Wanniski
Fixing gold at $350 will solve the global economic crisis according to Jude Wanniski.

The Optimum Price of Gold
By Jude Wanniski

The Wall Street Journal, January 7, 1998

The $100 decline in the price of gold in the past 14 months has persuaded conventional wisdom
that "gold has lost its lustre" as a monetary asset. The sale in this period of 12,000,000 ounces of
gold by central banks -- out of holdings of 1,100,000,000 ounces -- has been part of that story.
Those of us who believe the world is moving toward an international monetary reform that has
gold as its center have the opposite view: Gold has once again superbly demonstrated its ability to
foreshadow changes in the general price level.

The precious metal has been doing this for thousands of years. It did not stop when, in 1967-71,
the United States abandoned in stages its 1944 pledge at Bretton Woods, N.H., to maintain the
price at $35 per ounce. When the link was broken and the dollar "floated," the dollar/gold price
quadrupled to $140 by 1973. The worst inflation in U.S. history soon followed, as the Canadian
supply-side economist Robert Mundell at Columbia University had predicted.

Modern central banking and the use of government debt as money has eliminated golds utility as a
medium of exchange and sharply reduced its role as a store of value. Its surviving monetary
function is to provide the Federal Reserve, which has the task of determining how much money to
create from day to day, a precise signal of money demand.

If, from an optimum given point, the dollar/gold price rises, it is a signal that there is surplus
liquidity in the banking system. The Fed should then withdraw this surplus. It does so by selling
interest-bearing bonds from its portfolio for the cash and bank reserves that pay no interest. If the
Fed fails to withdraw this "liquid" debt, the process we know as inflation is initiated. The banks
will be forced to apply the liquidity to risky transactions.

Should the gold price decline from that same optimum point, it signals a shortage of liquidity in the
banking system. A shortage means the market is trying to finance sound transactions, but cannot.
Now the Fed should buy bonds from the banks, supplying the needed liquidity. Otherwise,
transactions that should be financed will not take place, initiating the process of economic decline
called deflation. The Great Depression of the 1930s should properly be called a contraction, not a
deflation, because it was caused by errors of tax and tariff policies, not central bank errors.

Throughout modern history, governments have frequently suspended the use of gold in order to
finance wars, which are inherently risky enterprises. After wars, governments have always
returned to gold to take advantage of its utility as a monetary signal. In doing so, they must face the
problem of returning at the optimum price, not easy because it is a subjective decision. A lower
price benefits creditors as debtors must pay back dollars worth more in real terms. A higher price
benefits debtors at the expense of creditors.

During the "greenback" financing of the Civil War, the dollar/gold price floated to $40 from the
pre-war fixed price of $20.67. After the war, the creditors who dominated the Republican Party
won the argument. They insisted on restoring the pre-war price, but at least allowing the six years
up to 1879 for the debtors to adjust to the crushing burden this placed on them. Wheat, corn and
wages had all doubled with gold, and the deflation forced a halving of these prices.

After the Napoleonic wars, during which the sterling price of gold had floated up by 40%,
restoration of gold at the pre-war price produced a sharp, quick recession that led to a populist
revolt against war taxes. Britain also left gold at the end of WWI to finance its war debts with
cheap money. Sterling/gold floated up 30% and in 1925 the Tories and Winston Churchill restored
the pre-war parity in another boon to creditors that forced a sharp, quick recessionary adjustment.

These examples all pale next to the dollar deflation of the last 30 years. From $35, gold floated as
high as $850 in 1980 as the Fed ignored its signals and created liquidity with reckless abandon.
When the Reagan tax cuts increased the demand for liquidity which the Fed refused to supply, gold
fell from its 1980 average of $600 to $300 in early 1982. The deflation produced the worst
recession since the 1930s. The Savings&Loan industry, which had deployed the surplus liquidity
of the 1970s in ever-riskier loans, collapsed under the deflations weight.

Today gold is below $290, after having spent the years 1981 to 1996 in a range of $340 to $400.
With this decline, gold has again shown that it can forecast deflationary pain. The worst has been
felt in Southeast Asia, where the central banks in 1993-96 added gobs of liquidity to the market in
order to keep their currencies tied to the dollar. Why? The 1993 Clinton tax increase had caused a
decline in the demand for dollar liquidity. When the Fed did not mop up the surplus, gold rose
10% in dollars. The Asian banks were forced to push their reserves into uncollateralized bricks and

Alas, when the markets here began to discount the tax cut enacted last summer, demand for dollar
liquidity rose, but the Fed was worried of inflation signs caused by gold having climbed by 10%
from the $350 level. In refusing to supply the liquidity demanded, the Fed not only wiped out the
10%. It also initiated a new deflation, taking gold past the $350 where I believe it is optimal --
because it appears to roughly balance the interests of debtors and creditors -- to below $300. In
order to deflate with the dollar, the Asian central banks had to withdraw liquidity from the banks
and all that surplus brick and mortar came crashing down on them. The economies suffer further
under the austerity strictures laid down by the International Monetary Fund.

For the Asians, clearly the optimum dollar/gold price to which they pegged was not optimal
where it is now. Nor is it optimal for Japan, which is valiantly trying to keep the yen close to the
dollar in order to satisfy the Clinton administration and is crushing yen debtors in a ghastly

Is a gold price lower than $300 optimal for the United States? So far, the answer isnt obvious. It
is at a level we have not experienced since 1979, which suggests the general price level will have to
decline in order to equilibrate with gold. However the capital gains tax was cut and it is unlikely we
will see federal tax increases anytime soon, so it may be that an adjustment to this low level can be
managed without any net pain to the economy. As usual, oil and commodity prices have followed
gold down, producing an early euphoria among consumers. At a second effect, it inevitably puts
pressure on nominal wages.

There is no arguing that it does favor creditors over debtors, though. This is fine as long as you are
a net creditor. In any case, an economy strengthened by the capital formation invited by the lower
capgains tax enables debtors to pay heavier debts. The nations biggest debtor, the federal
government, also bears the heaviest burden. As measured in ounces of gold, the national debt is
25% higher than it was a year ago.

The gains to be had for the whole world in formally stabilizing the dollar price of gold are so great
that if we just get it at some point between $300 and $400, the adjustments would not be terribly
unpleasant to anyone, even if the price were not exactly optimal. If $350 were chosen, as Jack
Kemp recommended prior to golds decline this year, the Fed would target gold instead of interest
rates as it works to eliminate inflation and deflation from the financial system. It would simply buy
bonds from the banks to provide more liquidity when gold approached $345, and sell bonds,
mopping up surplus liquidity, as it approached $355.

Once anchored in this fashion, the U.S. dollar would provide a reliable monetary guide to all other
national currencies. The global financial maelstroms of the last 30 years would give way to a new
century of calm, of the kind the Bank of England provided the world in the Pax Britannica of the
19th century.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:49 - ID#411440)
SILVER AND SILVER LEASING: Silver was shorted down about 10 cents
per oz today at one month lease rates of 3.64%, and I'm very happy to
see it! You see, with one month T-bills yielding less than 5% and
lease rates at 3.64%, there is no way this was economic from a
silver carry standpoint.

This short will have to be covered, and so will all the others.
But if the silver carry wasn't involved, why do it? I think
today's action was purely defensive, and indicates real fear
that the firming of spot POS would unwind some of that short overhang.

We are down and real dirty now, and this thing appears ready to blow.
But are we silver buffs going to be in for a rough ride!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 20:59 - ID#350145)
@rhody - silver
thanks rhody!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:13 - ID#25257)
@rhody, Re: Silver Ride
Im looking at a fairly large long position in HL. Since this issue hugs POS like a glove, Im curious as to how you see POS action on a short term ( 1 month ) and an intermediate term ( 3 months ) basis? Thanks.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:21 - ID#254288)

A fixed gold price of $350 oz. would ruin most N.A. based mining companies.
I'm under the impression that Wanniski and Kemp are part of the same politics/banker cabal as Rubin/Greenspan, such a low price will give their cohorts the opportunity to continue a fiat based system while taking control of the mines for an engineered price spike later.
Gold should be allowed to reach a fair level in relation to circulating fiat.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:22 - ID#34883)
Hedge Hogs

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:26 - ID#43349)
You ask the question:

"But if the silver carry wasn't involved, why do it? "

I would like to address that question with some observations of my own.

There have been a number of apparent silver market manipulations in the last several months. They take the form of:

1 ) Somebody accumulates silver calls on the paper market. They take their time, generally accumulating most when the price of gold is rising and would otherwise cause a rise in the price of silver. This way they can gather many calls with little apparent rise in silver price. They tend to work the markets in the early hours before NY opens.

2 ) Somebody takes physical delivery of up to around two million ounces and moves it over the span of a day or two from COMEX inventory. Often there is a ballyhooing of silver from certain camps that are well known for their bearishness just before or during this period.

3 ) Somebody accumulates silver puts in the paper markets working nuch as in 1 ) above.

4 ) Silver is sold and returned to COMEX inventory. In some cases accompanied by keasing and short sales. Especially as when an unexpectedly strong gold price movement negates some of the effect and requires a little extra "push".

The fact that there was substantial shorting on this last round implies there will be at least one more repeat of 1 ) and 2 ) to cover before the game ends...if it ends.

Or am I being cynical?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:31 - ID#370236)
Namaste to all. Just returned from from a work week in scenic Salome, AZ.
Mostly cut off from the outside world. A pleasure to see gold hang in
over $300 for the sheople to contemplate over the weekend.
Wonder what Bill has up his sleeve next to divert attention and shore-up
the markets? A nice little war in order?
Passed a 10 mile long military equipment/heavy vehicle line on I-10
while headed back to San Diego. Don't see that often.
Anyone else here near military bases see unusual activity?

Kosovo? Milosevic? ArchDuke Ferdinand heading to Sarajevo?
I'm probably just tired, right?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:34 - ID#320202)
I think a disco joke is in order... "Stayin' Alive" maybe? : )

Technology News

Temporary Fix Could Delay Y2K Glitch

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A temporary fix that makes computers think they are
operating in the 1970s could be used as a contingency plan for those
systems not yet ready to make the date change to the year 2000, a software
executive told lawmakers Tuesday.

The year 2000 problem stems from computers reading the two-digit 00 as 1900
instead of 2000, setting off glitches and possible shutdowns rippling
through computer systems and networks. Programmers must manually change
software code in everything from digital clocks to nuclear warheads.

Instead of changing the code immediately, a buffer program that overlays
the existing code can be used to buy more time for programmers, said David
Sullivan, CEO of Zonar, a software and information engineering company
based in Oakton, Va.

Data fed to a computer goes through the buffer, which changes the date from
2000 to 1972, a year that has identical properties to the century date,
said Sullivan at a joint hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives
Transportation Committee and the Government Reform Committee's technology
subcommittee looking at the year 2000 problem.

When the program finishes its computation, the data goes through the buffer
again and is said to bring the data to the current date.

It is only a stopgap measure, Sullivan said, so companies can replace old
systems in a more orderly fashion. It also takes one-tenth of the time to
remedy Y2K problems compared with rewriting software

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:34 - ID#43349)
See my post to rhody. I myself see silver as getting into shorter supply as time drags on. Each cycle of ins and outs from COMEX stocks puts back less than taken out. If I continue my cynicism, I woukd think someone is trying to shake all the interest in the silver market out they can as they get into a massive long position to profit as silver goes into eventual short supply.

I assume we will renewed discussion of how silver is primarily an industrial metal and demans will suffer as the economy goes into recession. Unless they can find some central banks that have silver reserves and are going to sell them. Perhaps from some little known former soviet republic state.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:42 - ID#343449)

gold........and i've got 400ozs more in my
portfolio as of today.....the cheese ball
was being hit from every direction....
had sucker marks all over it....

reeled in 4 ju99 390 calls @120 each....
the re-surgence of the paper bull emboldened
the sellers of mr shiny.....the paper bulls roar
was really awesome today.heee.heeee.heeee....especially when this
week as a whole is considered.................HAR!!!


back in houston with the desert dust in my lungs.....and this week
4 more crude calls......9 currently
4 more gold calls........16 currently

going for more crude monday.......war you know...and all
that rot too...damnable doom and gloomers around here...
reminds me of...........hmmmmmm....that arrow shooting dummy........
pre-occupied with the past.....relating to the future.............
HORSE FEATHERS....haruuummmmmpppphhhhhh! why relegate the past to the
future? and how? and why?

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction' sir isaac...

this and this alone.......the laws of nature force EVERYTHING into
cyclical rythms...........pressure has been put on gold.....the
edge of the envelope exceeded.....the resulting reaction will be
stupendous........for no other reason than sir isaac's postulation.....
that my friends...........IS OVERKILL TO THE N'TH DEGREE......
and reason for green stained cellulose to be sent to some yankees
in chicargo.......yar......har....

the sellers of gold.....when one day they are old....
will remember how they lost their financial hides......
to the believers and receivers of the golden one............
as the guarantor of freemen.........yes in dune.........
i'll ride the worm into the harkonnen's lair!;..with gold
as the standard.....and the crude one for lubricity!


(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:45 - ID#411440)
@ zeke: Moore Research Center shows silver bouncing between
$5 and $5.20 for all of October and with minor spikes to $5.50,
silver appears range bound until the end of Dec. Then firming
through Jan-Feb to $6.50 to $7 and $8.50 by May.
This is what the experts with their mega computers say.
They are saying that silver will lag behind
gold in the coming months.

Yet lease rates are higher and more volotile for silver.
There is less liquidity in the silver market. There is
also declining demand as the economy slows. There is also
a declining USD which should also pump silver.

So despite the uncanny accuracy of the MOORE predictions in
the past, I think that silver may surprise all of us. I hope
the price is knocked back down, as COMEX stocks disappear faster
that way, and this situation will blow earlier. But silver flat
for the next three months makes no sense to me with rising lease
rates and a falling USD. I think silver follows gold up, and the
short overhang blows the market. ( the Moore prediction for gold is
rangebound at 285 until Nov., so they do make mistakes )

I think we will see another hedge fund fail if the market drops
another 10%, and that will precipitate a series of defaults on
metal leases. God only knows what that will do to lease rates
and POS/POG.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:48 - ID#370236)
G'nite all. Off to the BBQ & 8 hr. nap. Unlike others, we sleep very well tonite, yes?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 21:59 - ID#190411)
Kitco slow problems
are related to the server not ending the transmission. I am convinced of this, as it was obvious early this morning that the problem would resurface.
Highrise now opens three or four windows to converse with the rest of us that are locked out. Others note that there isn't a great deal of traffic during the day, as those without the patience don't post anymore.
The server is at fault. It will not close to another computer that has gotten the full transmission. I believe that it is either the Kitco stuff at the bottom of the page, or the new "go to backup" animated thingy.
Witness the "stop sign" activity indicator. If it hangs after the transmission, then you will not be on K1, or K2 for the rest of the day.
Unless we all hit the stop button after each request has been fulfilled by the "Submit" button, we are at the mercy of the hanging Kitco.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:03 - ID#284255)
Read this and think deeply.

Black Thunder's Roar: Mining for Solutions with RTK GPS

This one is a classic article on how mining companies rely on modern technology.
It highlights many aspects of the companies reliance on the current GPS system.
The article also runs into other dependencies that the company has in regards to computers and current modern software for the day to day sucsessful mining operations.

Will the mining company you invest in be Y2k compliant?
I'm sure, if you rang them up to enquire,
That they would say, "Sure, we're going to be compliant by Dec99."

Same as the banks and everyone else.

I'd say think carefully about this one.

What will be the effect on the sharemarket when Joe Average starts to think about the companies he holds certificates in?

Will he feel that any company is compliant?

The actuality of Y2k matters later.
The reality of how Joe Average reacts to his fears will have a far earlier effect.

It could well hit home at the beginning of 1999.
And I would expect it to be a poignant thought in his head by June 1999.

What's he going to do when the confidence runs out?

Dump the damn lot and buy physical gold???

I would hazard a guess that no one will be wanting to hold paper as an asset come Dec 1999.

Beware if you are buying paper mining shares for the long run - 2 years plus.

I am not trying to spook you at all.
I am merely trying to think ahead on what I see coming.

Best you think long and hard here.
It's not about today at all.

It's about what Joe Average is going to think and do when he becomes Y2k aware.
He's going to be very nervous,.
And it's only going to get worse for him - all the way up to Jan 2000.
Only then will he know how he really stands.

But between now and then he's going to learn alot on how we depend on computers and how they run our lives.

It's exactly the same as what's hapening within the global financial markets.
Except Joe Average doesn't know that yet.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:06 - ID#410194)
Don't forget to answer my yesterday's question when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:07 - ID#401460)
MoReGoLd Van Eck Hard Assets

I have owned Van Eck Hard Assets for a couple of years, I am not sure how smart those guys are. They changed their allocation from Gold to Oil when Gold started down. In other words they were buying more Oil stocks at the top of the Oil market and less Gold at the bottom of the Gold market. And now......well what ever.

I think it is more of what brokers like to do - buy high and sell low - they feel safer that way.

However, let's be positive and assume they know what they are doing, and they feel that Gold is on it's way to $500.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:11 - ID#284255)
Sounds like a derivative.
Russia: The only country to fail at communism and capitalism!
You know what Russian workers say: "We pretend to work. They pretend to pay us."

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:15 - ID#25257)
@rhody and Gollum
Thanks for the excellent reads. Though some of this analysis is over my head, it confirms what I see in the charts and the markets at large. Now I can fish for best junk silver prices before it's all gone. Thanks again.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:15 - ID#208149)
Gollum : like your post like your way of thinking and crazy about silver in the next 12months.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:26 - ID#401460)

Were did you find th article on Van Eck Hard Assets?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:30 - ID#401460)
Emergency Meeting of the FED!

Friday October 2, 2:29 pm Eastern Time

Fed declines comment on
rumor of emergency meeting

WASHINGTON, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - The Federal
Reserve on Friday declined to comment on
rumors that surfaced in financial markets of a
possible emergency meeting of policymakers.

``As a matter of policy, we don't comment on
these things,'' Fed spokeswoman Lynn Fox said.

The rumors hurt U.S. stock prices as talk circulated the Fed might be discussing
potential liquidity problems related to hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:30 - ID#284255)
That silver bullet fix has been chewed up and spat out as another rubber bullet, on some of the geek groups I hide out on.

It's just press coverage of another hopefull way out.

And basically it just won't work.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:34 - ID#222231)
Kitco-Can anyone explain exactly what this means for rangy?
Randgold & Exploration Company

The party's over and the mines once held by Randgold & Exploration Company
are all gone, leaving the company to clean up and turn out the lights. The firm
is the descendant of Rand Mines Limited, South Africa's oldest mining house,
but its role as the parent company for Durban Roodepoort Deep, Harmony Gold
Mining, and other firms is over. It has spun off three marginal gold mines into
Durban Roodepoort, sold its interest in the Marsfontein diamond find to
SouthernEra Resources, and listed its Randgold Resources division ( which is
prospecting for gold in Mali ) separately on the London Stock Exchange.
Randgold & Exploration is expected to delist from the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange by the end of 1998.

Address: 5 Press Ave., Selby
2092 Johannesburg, South Africa
Phone: +27-11-728-4701
Fax: +27-11-728-2547

CEO: R. A. R. Kebble
CFO: F. Abbott
HR: W. R. A. Houston

Fiscal Year End: March
1997 Sales ( $ mil. ) : 43.4
1-Yr. Sales Change: 225.7%
Net Income ( $ mil. ) : 13.4

Employees: 29

Ticker Symbol: RANGY ( ADR )
Exchange: Nasdaq

Special Membership Offer! Hoover's Online members get instant access to
in-depth financials, real-time SEC documents, company histories, competitors,
and more.

Hoover's Online financial information: ( Need expanded/real-time
information? Click here. )
Stock Chart
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Check for the Latest News on Randgold & Exploration.
( Extensive archives of recent news stories )

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AltaVista | Excite | HotBot | Infoseek | Yahoo!

How positive/negative are you for the prospects for this stock ( next 3
months ) ?

Hoover's Company Information, Copyright  1998, Hoover's, Inc., Austin, Texas

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:37 - ID#190411)
What extraordinary intelligence do these VanEck paperboys have over you?
As I see it, you have been reticent as of late, after getting you butt kicked in the golds, as we all have. These guys are doing just what you said that they would do. They are paying a premium on major golds, just in time for them to miss out on the "entrance from the ditch" of the end of August. They are a month behind in one of the top volatile markets. Some timing, eh?
I am SICK AND TIRED of "professionals" dictating their socialist collegeboy wordview. You know that the system is putrefying, you know where to put your dough. Or else, why do you post?
Dismiss these twits, as they should have piled all of their cash into golds at the end of August, and not in the first week of October.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:40 - ID#402183)

Salome AZ? Out visiting the Harquahala Mine?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:41 - ID#333126)
various news tidbits
Mahatdir preaches 'morality' - compares Anwar to WJC
( his days are numbered. whose? Mahatdir's of course )

Philippines Airlines opens for business again

lotsa workers face salary freeze

no job? sell insurance!
( makes you wonder how big the insurance market is... )

Russian Duma burns paper

Rubin doesn't know how to control the derivatives

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:47 - ID#93241)
Erle 21:59

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:51 - ID#93241)
Erle 21:59
I'm not a systems administrator, but I'm not willing to blame Kitco's server. Servers can only handle so much traffic, then they s-l-o-w down. If users are opening three or four windows to access Kitco, obviously they're keeping others off this site. Shame on them. A case of too few with too much to say, yes?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:52 - ID#350145)
@ gollum & rhody -the fundamentals of silver i know, you know - for others
i an very long silver and have been for about 6 weeks. have followed silver for about 20 years; and i agree with you both: each day more consumption than production ( for most of the last 50 years ) -no large stockpiles ( except india's secondary market ) , very few mines ( most comes from credits of copper, zinc, gold, lead, etc - which you cannot open for the rise in silver, making it very inelastic - and scrap film ) . this is why i like owning the very few silver companies. someone once said if gold went to $3,000 an ounce you could mine nevada. last most silver is found shallow and much has been discovered. silver can do anything gold can and then some. when it starts to move there are only a few silver companies to choose from - in fact so few even a medium invester can own some of most of them. mole 1 or 2

(Fri Oct 02 1998 22:54 - ID#45173)
There's a 3x6 picture of Greenspan in the biz section of The Boston Globe today, unfortunately not on the web site so I can't post it, that I've cut out and posted on the wall of my office. It was taken during his testimony to the House panel on LTCM yesterday. His head is supporting his forehead, partly covering his face. One imagines him thinking, "Jesus. How could I have been so stupid. These guys have killed us." Not at all the image of the Omnipotent Grand Wizard of a the Global Economy. He looks more like an old man who has discovered, at an advanced age, that his thirst for power and prestige is stronger than his sense of responsibility and good judgement.

Wish I could post it. It's a keeper.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:00 - ID#401460)

The 3 window thing didn't work, my computer kept locking up.

Erle is right, there are not that many people trying to post anymore. Kitco slowing down is not consistant.

Erle is close to the problem. It seems to be that a window/post will not complete, so earlier today I experimented with opening a second window to see if my last post had posted because the original window would not complete the posting function and open. A time warp.

I don't think the number of viewers slows it down. It seems to be the way the post is created and the length of it.

Stat were you here @ 7:00 am +- when Kitco locked up again?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:02 - ID#93241)
Y2K--cause or effect? Could it be something is happening on Earth that is bigger than the Y2K...or the markets? A person can only see one side of a coin at a time, and then often forgets the other side of the coin. We all too often behave in ways with no consideration of others.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:05 - ID#401460)

I have not tried to post a graphic to date, I figure that since that is kind of my business, that once I start everyone at Kitco is in trouble.
Talk about slowing down the site.

Can you scan it then post it?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:05 - ID#93241)
No, I wasn't around this a.m. Too much work lately and I'm trying to get ready for a trip. I've forgotten how much work it is to get ready for vacation.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:07 - ID#37463)
Dead cat bounce?!
I was just watching Luis Rukyser on public TV. Rukyser made a bit of a pitch for gold and then asked one of his "experts" if she thought that gold was a buy. She retorted that the gold rise is a dead cat bounce. Funy, that was what I was thinking about the DOW rally today. The Rukyser crowd was noticable guarded in their prognostications. Generally they are all sun and roses. If gold acurately forecasts the future then the fact that inflation is low now may have little to do with what gold will do now. If inflation is to begin with a vengence again then gold may anticipate it and gold stocks may anticipate the gold metal. There was talk on the show about two more tick downs in the prime, talk of a tax cut and of other measures to stimulate the economy. One guest actually suggested that a recession is not unthinkable, but he did not think that would happen. Bart needs to get a spell checker on this site to weed out all my mispellings.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:09 - ID#401460)

Wish I had that problem - getting ready for a vacation. I was up early this am working. I lurk around Kitco while I work, and when someone or thing gets me work up I have to post.

This is a critical phase for Gold. And when Kitco locks up it really is frustrating.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:16 - ID#45173)
I'll try scanning it, but don't hold yer breath. My scanner's been acting funny lately.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:16 - ID#93241)
Tortfeasor; Erle
Tortfeasor -- Regarding Luis Rukyser and the Witch Doctors of Wall Street ( er, maybe that's too rough on witch doctors ) , I look at it this way...they're not going to run out of wallpaper for a long time.

Erle -- How is Life-on-the-Lake? Are the steelhead running the mighty Root yet? I need to pay a visit up there soon...homage to my ancestors.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:19 - ID#93241)
Gold's going to do what gold's going to do, regardless if I'm watching or not. If I got a front row seat here, fine, but most of the time I got work to do. Gold will take care of itself...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:19 - ID#266105)

Interview NICK GOODWIN - 02 October, 1998

AH: Our gold guru, Nick Goodwin of Fedsure Asset Management. Nick, let's just recap briefly on this week:
21.75% increase in the All Gold Index. Obviously some gold shares have run ahead much stronger than that. Is
it time yet to start taking profits?

NICK GOODWIN: No, no, not yet. I think last week I was intimating that it was very important for gold to move
through 300. I think the last time we spoke it was about 293, and I spoke about the 298 level, at which the 298
level average-wise, and then 300 and so forth, or 310 and so forth, and we actually knew that would happen.
Luckily the gold price moved this week, because you can never predict when it's going to go, and so the
shares have now just sort of taken off. But it's not over. I think last week I spoke as well about the index moving
to 1500. I still think that's possible. If gold moves to about 310, which is possible, because gold is acting very
well now, and I think the whole sentiment for gold has changed. Also there's been a defiant downtrend since
1996, with gold moving down from $400 and bottoming at 278 was the low, and that downtrend now, according
to my charts, has turned around. We've now got a rising trend, which is being established, and these trends
normally last for about two years, minimum, so we can see gold being in a rising trend for at least two years,
which is going to boost the shares quite a bit.

AH: Nick, this week, breaking through 300, was there one single event which caused the gold price to do so

NICK GOODWIN: I would say it was these funds that went bust.

AH: And the hedge funds?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, and the hedge funds, because there are two now that have gone bust. The one, it's
intimated it was short of 300 tons of gold, the other one 400 tons. These are large amounts of gold, I mean, just
those two funds alone, that's 700 tons, that's like 25% of the annual supply.

AH: Let me stop you there. Just explain to us in layman's terms what it means to be short of 700 tons, and why
it should be so.

NICK GOODWIN: It means, what they've done, they've intimated that the gold price would go lower, so they
took a position, they went and borrowed physical gold from Central Banks who were willing to lend it out, and
they borrowed it in bar form, they sold it into the market. This gold's been absorbed by the market and it's
probably been converted into jewellery, which ends up on the breasts of women, eventually. And when the gold
price starts moving up, these Central Banks could start demanding the gold back, because I think they would
rather have it in their vaults than have it with someone that maybe is going bankrupt. I'm just not quite sure how
they're going to get it back, because you can't get it back in the same form, so you could get a major squeeze
in the gold market. You could have gold running very fast. I wouldn't like to see it run fast, because that's not
very good for the mines. We'd rather have the gold edging up slowly, and have a higher price over a longer
period of time, because if gold runs very fast, what happens is, let's say it goes up $100 or so, it turns around
quickly and comes down again, maybe $50. So we'd rather have gold edging up slowly, but I think that the
movement in gold now has been due to short covering by people who were short, they had to buy the gold in. I
don't think the man in the street's even come in yet. If the international situation deteriorates further, which I
think it will, and the man in the street starts coming in, well then you've got a whole new scenario for gold. It just
changes the whole picture. Something that I can't predict, but it just looks very, very positive, that's all.

AH: Are there any examples in the past of similar situations to what we're going through now?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I think I'd like to go back to 1929, because I think people are starting to look at that now.
In fact it was so long ago, it's very difficult to get records on that, but just to give you some ideas. In 1929 the
market bottomed in 1935, and the Dow Jones Index then, if we'd had $10 000 at the top in 1929, it would have
reduced down to $3 600 at the bottom, and there was only one gold share at that point in time, it was
Homestake Mining. And if you'd had $10 000 at the top of the Dow in 1929, it would have risen to $62 000 at the
bottom, so gold shares moved in opposites, so there was a move of 600% in gold shares. Again, if you look at
the 1973/74 downturn in the Dow, the Dow lost 50% and a group of gold shares - there were then more gold
shares around at that stage - went from a level of 40 to 140. So there was about a fourfold increase, so I think
these two move in opposites and I think it happens because unfortunately, whatever people may believe, gold
is still the ultimate money. It's the only asset that owes no-one any debt. It's not backed by any government or
by any person, or any bank. It's something real that we can buy and put under our bed, it's very heavy, it's
highly valuable, it's highly tradable, and I think, in times of crisis, I'd rather have that than have some paper

AH: Now those are really exciting figures, but if we have a look back, the All Gold Index has risen 56% since
mid-June. Are you saying that it's only just starting?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, it's only starting. I think, you and I started talking at the beginning of this year in
January, when the index was below 700 and it's almost doubled since that level. Well, it's still got a long way to
go. I think it's got up to 2000. That's with gold say moving to about 350, then we've still got to go to about 2000.
If gold goes higher, if it goes to about 400 or so we could see the index much higher, but I can't predict that
now. We'll have to take that as time goes, we'll have to just try and work out where it's going to.

AH: Let's stick with it.

NICK GOODWIN: It's not a sell, for sure, it's not a sell.

AH: JCI Gold, that was your pick a couple of weeks ago, last week rather, when we spoke. Interestingly
enough, maybe Clive Roffey had his own analysis, or maybe he's just following the guru, because he also last
night said JCI Gold.

NICK GOODWIN: You have to always look for shares which are being neglected, and I think when we started
talking a year ago, Ergo was one we spoke about. I've just looked at Ergo - that share has actually quadrupled,
because it was converted to Anglogold. If you work out, I think we spoke at R5, it would have been sitting at
R20 today. So that was one, then we spoke about Crown at some stage. I think at 130, well that was converted
into Durban Deep and similarly that would be worth 260 today, so that's doubled, and I think all the time, you
mustn't necessarily follow the shares that are running. You must look at shares that are not running, because
that's where you are going to benefit the most, and JCI Gold is a share which owns virtually half of Western
Areas, plus many other assets. It's sitting at a 55% discount to its underlyings. People might not like the
structure behind the company or something, but just on Western Areas alone, if you want to serve rule of
thumb, JCI Gold should be half the price of Western Areas. Now Western Areas is R20 and JCI Gold was R5.
It should be at least R10. This share is very, very under-priced. So if you are going to buy in now, there's still
this opportunity, I think that's the one to go for.

AH: Well, there you have it, you can't get more specific than that. Nick Goodwin of Fedsure Asset
Management, our gold guru, and hasn't he just seen us proud in the past few months. Thank you again, as
always, Nick.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:19 - ID#401460)

Your exactly right about that fund, they have missed the sure thing now are they are gambling that Gold will continue to move up.

I stuck in an annuity tax deferred whatever where ther is a penalty if I pull out early.

They will evenyually hit it unless they completely pull out of Oil and move into Gold at $400.

MoreGold I did find that article.

When they last changed allocations they didn't tell any one they just change the name from Van Eck Gold to Van Eck Hard Assets, my broker kept saying that they were the same, hardly, went from Gold to Oil - I was buying in at the top of the Oil market when I thought I was averageing into Gold on the way down. Never did figure out how the change the units from Gold to Oil or come to think of it now from Oil to Gold.....I am going to call them.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:21 - ID#401460)

Go to Kincos or facsimile and scan.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:27 - ID#335190)
smoking something that is not entirely legal, @ One ought to focus
October 2, 1998

Feud between economists at World Bank, IMF boils over

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A feud between top economists at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund boiled over this week, exposing a rift between sister institutions on policy advice to Asia's crisis-hit economies.

IMF chief economist Michael Mussa launched the first salvo on Wednesday, when asked if the fund made policy mistakes in Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.

"I think those who argue that monetary policy should have been eased rather than tightened in those economies are smoking something that is not entirely legal," Mussa told a news conference, without mentioning any names.

When asked on Friday about Mussa's remarks, World Bank chief economist Joseph Stiglitz shot back.

"I wasn't even smoking," Stiglitz told reporters. "He hasn't looked at the econometric evidence and statistical evidence on this ... We go through both the theory and the evidence on the issue and you'll see that Mr. Mussa's wrong."

The rift between sister institutions became obvious in January, when Stiglitz told the Wall Street Journal: "You don't want to push these countries into severe recession. One ought to focus ... on things that caused the crisis, not on things that make it more difficult to deal with."

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:31 - ID#218214)
Silver: Fear not guys, this market is in good shape. Just from a quick
glance, silver looks like it has 5 waves up with a correction underway.
This wall of worry that bull markets love to climb is fun to watch, and is also the kind of stuff us contrarians love to see. The fact that so many are questioning the upmove in silver is healthy. This is the way I certainly want to see an advance begin.
Remember, the smart money did not cause a commotion back in Feb. buying gold, it was silver, and he has 9 billion in cash. He IS the SMART MONEY. Fundamentals since have proved him correct. Comex stocks are at lows not seen in how long. When they were previously this low, what did silver do? With all the chaos that is unfolding right now, ALL precious metals will participate, throw in the fundamental equation plus the wall of worry and, well, IMHO, any weakness is a gift! HL is a steal under $ 5 a share. From a technical standpoint, look at the incredibly BULLISH chart pattern that is forming in silver above. Connect the highs and the lows and you have a declining wedge.
This is on the verge of a breakout above the downtrend line. Use any weakness to get long the silver mining stocks and the physical. Remember, the bull wants to start with as few on board as possible! Don't be caught waiting at the station.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:32 - ID#401460)

I have been buying some Prudent Bear Fund lately plus at some point the Dow may bottom and I want to have a good feel for when that may be. I am thinking about getting back into the Fidelity Contra fund one of these down days. I can only hang around here and post once in a while.

I feel relieved that I have got much of my investment back and may be on the verge of making some money. Sure is a lot better than what was happening to Gold and what is now happening to many the last few weeks.

I am getting tired as evidenced by my typos and slopyness. Just about time to sign off.

We have a big day here tomorrow, Penn State is in town to take on the #1 Buckeyes. Should be a really knock em up sock em up game.

ESPN' s base is here tomorrow.


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:34 - ID#218214)
Lets try this again.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:36 - ID#43352)
I agree. Apparently do does Mr. Buffett.

You make a good point about there being so few to choose from. I think we have moved in to the phase where supplies are not so short as to seriously affevt prices quite yet, but short enough that an unscrupulous manipulator doesn't need a hugemongous bankroll to roil the market and play pricing games. Once we get through that there should be a pretty good run up.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:36 - ID#93241)
I knew you weren't all bad. GO BUCKS! Class of '78. Woody's days. Those were the days, yes?

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:38 - ID#335190)
the world depends upon our doing our part,@ The only trouble is, it isn't working
October 2, 1998

Financial wizards' magic potions not working on global crisis

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Top financial officials of the United States and other countries are a blur of activity these days, constantly waging attack on the global economic crisis -- promising to stand by Brazil, jawboning U.S. investment houses to bail out a major hedge fund and dreaming up ways to overhaul the globe's financial architecture.

All this activity is designed to instill confidence in badly shaken world markets.

The only trouble is, it isn't working.

"If the American people like this economic recovery we have and they want it to go on, then we must recognize that 30 per cent of it came from trade and our ability to be strong and to lead the world depends upon our doing our part," Clinton said.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:40 - ID#35757)
I dont know much about the stock market. I see you mentioned ju99 390 calls at $120. If you would be so kind to explain a few points.
1 ) How many Ozs does $120 give you the right to buy?
2 ) Can these calls be purchased without opening up an account with a broker?


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:43 - ID#43352)
Between the acts
As the baseball season draws to a close and football squads take the filed, Joe Sixpack casually opens the envelope from his 401k investment account. His head still thinking about McGwire's fabulous home run record and the race with Sosa, he stares blankly at the numbers.

Slowly they begin to register...

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:45 - ID#280214)
BART - suggestions for how to speed up Kitco
1 ) Since viewers reload entire time slots to view the latest posts.
2 ) Since viewers reload multiple time slots at one time to catch up.
3 ) Since we all have word processing software of some sort and thus
we can copy/paste time slot after time slot into a text document
that we can review at our leisure without loading down the server.
4 ) Since we all can open multiple browser windows to view different
time slots - once loaded they impose no further load on the server
unless frames with quotes are loaded - use non-frames for all but one

I offer the following suggestions {though sour medicine they are}:
A} More 3-hr slots: 06:00-08:59, 09:00-11:59, 12:00-14:59, 15:00-17:59
Leave the evening and early morning slots as they are.
If needed: consider 2-hour time slots from 09:00 to 21:00 M-F.
B} Disable the selection of multiple slots from 09:00 to 21:00 M-F.
C} Either post a message under the "submit your comment" button
"Avoid Multiple Posts - One tap of this button is sufficient
- even if it takes several minutes to respond."
OR - implement a 5 minute waiting period for subsequent posts.
{though sometimes even THAT wouldn't be enough as in Shek's
posts of 09:33, 09:38, 09:47, 09:54, 10:01, 10:01 on Sept.30th}
D} Limit posts to 500 words {distasteful but may be necessary nowadays}
E ) Disable "Full Text" from 09:00 to 21:00 M-F ( an even worse solution}

Some of the above are easy for us to voluntarily abide by.
But obviously voluntary restraint is not working.
So to preserve the usefullness of this site and make it work
the better for more of us - then involuntary restrictions on
downloading and posting frequency and length are warranted.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:47 - ID#335190)
RUSSIA 2 October 1998
Maslyukov's proposed program would severely diminish the
power of the Central Bank by transferring some of its powers to a
committee for coordinating monetary and credit policies of state
financial bodies. According to Interfax on 1 October, the
committee would be made up of representatives from the Central
Bank, Federal Securities Commission, Sberbank,
Vnesheconombank, and the Ministries of Finance and Economy.
The plan would also slash the number of commercial banks in the
country by raising the minimum capital requirement to 20 million
ECU ( $17 million ) . Under the program, only a few entities would
be allowed to conduct transactions with hard currency. Exporters
would have to go through a laborious process of obtaining and
presenting letters of credit--not dissimilar to the system that existed
in the Soviet economy. Both importers and exporters of raw
materials would have to qualify under a government tender simply
to do business. JAC

Reuters on 2 October reported that State Duma members
abandoned their plan to sue Finance Minister Zadornov after he
reassured them money owed them would be forthcoming.
According to Interfax on 1 October, the Finance Ministry owes
203.4 million rubles ( $12 million ) to the Duma, while the Duma
itself has unpaid bills totaling 149 million rubles. The Moskva
Hotel, where many deputies live during parliamentary sessions, has
threatened to evict the legislators for their growing tab. The
Duma's heating system has reportedly been cut off, while deputies
have been denied transport and printing services. Duma head of
staff Nikolai Troshkin told reporters that the Duma does not have
a single sheet of paper and cannot duplicate deputies statements
any more. JAC

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:52 - ID#384350)
The Political Effects on Equity Markets: Brazil
Dick Hoskins has pointed out that in the US there is often a 4-year cycle in stocks where they tend to rise the year leading up to an election afterwhich they sell off.

Brazil's Govt intervention in its stockmarket on the last day of trading before elections if not illegal, is expected.

While many European bourses were down 5+%, the US and Brazil tried there best to put a positive spin. Talks of US aid to Brazil, intervention pushing Tele Brasil up 10%, the Dow rallying a 2% but only 3/2 adv/dec.

Brazil's market was up 7.53% today, but how long will this charade last? Remember how the mexican economic disaster, devaluation, and subsequent US rescue came right after presidential elections.

In the next 2 weeks, Brazil is likely to devalue the Real, and their stock market is likely to fall further. Expect a bailout as well, as it looks like Clinton is already trying to sidestep the IMF and lend directly to Brazil.

Tequila II, the movie, is coming to a theater near you.

Jim Bob
(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:53 - ID#249395)
I hope recent pessimism observed here re these two stocks is unwarranted. ( OK, some was mine ) Randgold's managements stated purpose is to eliminate the disparity between the holding company's assets and its market price. Since this management has been very active and has demonstrated reorganization skills, I am willing to allow some time. The sale of its controlling interest in Crown in return for some 4 million shares of Durban provides synergies to Durban's operation. With the number of shares issued for this purpose, it looks like Durban received good value. Durban's shares outstanding have gone up, but the 2 1/2 million preferred shares have been converted to save cash. The 9 million B options have been outstanding in the same amount for some time, so if one liked the stock before, there hasn't been any dilution on this account. Other options have increased since the start of the year to 5.1+ million from 2.5. Durban is Blanchard's favorite stock and he reportedly spent a lot of time researching it and visiting management, so I'm betting on the upside. Durban had a US$ 1.6 million profit in the June quarter and with the rand drop and further development, it looks like a turnaround situation. Yes, I wish I knew more about what I'm writing about, but I guess we just keep picking up clues from reading the comments posted to this site. I really like it and I hope to learn all I can. Anything that assists my financial recovery is appreciated, so thanks for this site!

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:54 - ID#222231)
HighRise-Van Ek
Don't feel as if you're alone. I have 50% of a variable annuity fund invested in hard asset fund ( Van Ek ) originally named natural resources. They submitted a proxy I believe last year to invest in REITs. IHMO they are not too late getting in at this stage. They have always been invested in oil and other natural resources. Can you imagine how much more paper loss you would have realized if they had'nt decreased their gold holdings a couple ofyears ago? They seem to have bottomed out for now. This is, IMHO, the start of a new trend in gold when funds begin to invest in gold. Let's hope for better things to come.

Good Luck,


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:54 - ID#288231)

ANOTHER opinion on war....

oil to $50bbl in a flash...BOOM.

how to play this very REALisTIC event?
long term options....less than $200 per
for 13 months....the cost of a day skiing
on the mountain......a round of golf..
to be on the train..


(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:58 - ID#280214)
I'm not crucifying Shek since he did not know about slow server response
Other posters - especially those new to this forum will repeat his error.
It is just that we must try to prevent such occurences as six duplicate posts of of 2900 words EACH time! This episode blocked all of us from the site for 45 minutes {except for Chrisophilos who snuck a quickie in between the salvos}.

(Fri Oct 02 1998 23:59 - ID#43352)
Whatever those guys are smoking it seems to focus their thoughts on theory and blind them to reality.

Theory: If the economy is too slow, ease up on interest rates so that business can borrow more cheaply. Theoreticaly this will stimulate the economy.

Fact: If there is some other country with higher rates, easing rates will cause all the money to invest faster in that other country and the resulting illiquidity will further hinder the economy.

Solution: Keep rates high, but offer tax breaks and other incentives to business.

Advice: Don't smoke.